Individual Economists

WaPo Admits Internal DC Police Scandal Over Manipulated Crime Stats

Zero Hedge -

WaPo Admits Internal DC Police Scandal Over Manipulated Crime Stats

Five weeks ago, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller announced that there was an ongoing DOJ investigation into whether Washington D.C. officials manipulated crime statistics - calling it a "massive scandal." 

Specifically, Miller said:

"There's even accusations that murders and homicides were reported as accidents."

See 55 second mark:

One day after Miller's late-August announcement, National Police Association spox Betsy Smith told ABC4 News in a little-noticed report that "Commanders and supervisors were having the initial responding officers write the report differently than what they were called to, or different than what they physically saw on the scene."

And while the DC Police Department has been run by Democrats for decades - frustrated cops have been talking to the DOJ and have receipts, presented with a bow by D.C. Police Union Chairman Greggory Pemberton. Read on... 

Greggory Pemberton, chairman of the D.C. Police Union (Photo: Michael A. McCoy via The Washington Post)

On Sunday, the Washington Post revealed internal accusations that "managers were recording serious crimes as more minor ones to make their police districts appear safer or avoid the ire of top department brass" - and that officers and supervisors 'clashed' over "whether an offense was a robbery or a theft, or whether a weapon used in an assault qualified as potentially deadly."

The frustrated officers "kept lists, documenting cases where they believed a higher-up improperly classified a crime as a lesser offense," with one noting 150 such instances in March of 2024 alone in which staff in the Southeast D.C. police district believed offenses were in appropriately classified. 

"The police department is playing fast and loose with how they report their data so that they can report favorably to the citizens about crime, and I don’t think it’s fair to the city," said Pemberton - who's been assisting the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans with 'information compiled by officers.'

So, a group of pissed off cops within the DC police department have been fighting with superiors and keeping notes over misclassified crimes, and kept notes. Now they're working with the feds to blow the lid. Or as WaPo puts it - "found a receptive audience."

We're sure the galaxy brains over at FactCheck.org are getting right on that correction after saying President Trump 'wrongly' claimed that his DC crackdown resulted in 11 days with no murders, the "first time that’s taken place in years." They of course make no mention of the DOJ / Congressional investigation Miller announced two days earlier. 

And of course, a July report by NBC Washington that MPD District 3 Commander Michael Pulliam was suspended and placed under investigation for allegedly manipulating crime data - however Stephen Miller said it was being done "on a widespread basis" - so more than just that sacrificial lamb.

WaPo Spin

Of course this Sunday night report is all about frontrunning the DOJ release - and narrative control. Such as that it could have simply been an initial lack of evidence - writing that "Criminologists say [zh: wait for it] classifying crimes is an often subjective and evolving process: Incidents can be redefined as investigators uncover more evidence, and disagreements don’t necessarily point to corruption." And who's the one criminologist they cited? "Alexis Piquero, a criminologist at the University of Miami who led the Bureau of Justice Statistics during the Biden administration," who "cautioned against jumping to conclusions that D.C. police were purposefully concealing violent crimes."

Right, yes. 

Recall that during the 2024 election, Democrats insisted that crime had fallen under the Biden administration, contrary to your lying eyes. They smugly pointed to FBI crime stats published in 2023 by Biden's FBI - showing that the nation's violent crime rate had fallen in 2022 by 1.7%. Leftist pundits and academics alike used it for a collective 'ackchyually' whenever Trump and his allies would point out the rampant crime gripping Democrat-run cities.

Then, in the home stretch of the election when Trump was clearly ahead (and before Kash Patel could go 'Ah-ha!'), the 2022 figures were revised - revealing that crime had actually increased by 4.5% in 2022. This textbook Ministry of Truth 'correction' was uncovered by John Lott Jr. and published Oct. 16

Amazing...

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 10:20

AMD Soars Most In Nearly A Decade On OpenAI Chip Deal; Semiconductor Index Hits Record High

Zero Hedge -

AMD Soars Most In Nearly A Decade On OpenAI Chip Deal; Semiconductor Index Hits Record High

Update (1005ET):

At the cash open, AMD shares jumped as much as 38% to new record highs following news of the OpenAI deal (see previous update for details). In fact, this intraday surge so far marks the largest share gain in nearly a decade, or about 9.5 years, dating back to the 52.3% gain on April 22, 2016.

 Record high.

Goldman analyst Peter Callahan says today is all about ...

 The deal between AMD and OpenAI sent the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index up 4%, reaching a new all-time high.

Totally not a bubble... 

*   *   *

 

The epic "circle jerk" continues (read how this works at the end of the note )...

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices surged in premarket trading after the company announced a multi-year partnership with OpenAI to roll out next-generation AI infrastructure. The first 1-gigawatt deployment of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs is scheduled to begin in the second half of 2026.

AMD and OpenAI have signed a definitive agreement establishing AMD as a core compute partner for OpenAI.

Well, that solves it. Won't be Intel...

The partnership begins with the Instinct MI450 series and rack-scale AI solutions designed for data centers that power OpenAI's chatbots.

Here's the structure of the deal:

  • Equity component: AMD granted OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares, vesting with deployment and performance milestones tied to capacity expansion (1 GW → 6 GW), AMD share-price thresholds, and OpenAI rollout goals.

AMD CFO Jean Hu said in a statement, "Our partnership with OpenAI is expected to deliver tens of billions of dollars in revenue for AMD while accelerating OpenAI's AI infrastructure buildout," adding, "This agreement creates significant strategic alignment and shareholder value for both AMD and OpenAI and is expected to be highly accretive to AMD's non-GAAP earnings-per-share."

"This partnership is a major step in building the compute capacity needed to realize AI's full potential," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated. He noted, "AMD's leadership in high-performance chips will enable us to accelerate progress and bring the benefits of advanced AI to everyone faster."

AMD shares in New York jumped as much as 25%.

What this also means is that despite the now explicit backing (and investment) of the White House, Intel failed to win this deal which makes it clear who the real Alphas are in the chip space. Surprisingly, in a sign of brief market rationality, NVDA stock is actually lower this morning (we doubt it lasts) as AMD takes away tens if not hundreds of billions in future chip revenue from the world's largest company. 

If AMD gains hold above 23.8% (April 9, 2025) through the end of the cash session, this would mark the largest daily increase since the 52.3% jump on April 22, 2016. 

Related, and a must-read (spoiler alert: some of the nation's top data center financiers weren't too happy we called it a "circle jerk" ): The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk"

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 10:05

The Cold, Hard Airport-Floor Truth

Zero Hedge -

The Cold, Hard Airport-Floor Truth

By Michael Every of Rabobank

There is some irony that this Global Daily author, who has written about geopolitical events such as drone incursions into Europe regularly, was trapped in Munich airport on Friday night by what were reportedly military reconnaissance drones; had to sleep on the floor with 3,500 stranded souls like a scene from a zombie movie; was rerouted via other destinations so the door-to-door journey was 42 hours; and had his suitcase lost by the airline on the way out AND on the way back. However, it underlines anyone thinking current life is ‘normal’ is living in a bubble.

Europe, for all its talk, seemingly has no way of dealing with these drones. Whose are they? We don’t know. Why are they not being shot down when spotted - a lack of ammo or a lack of will? We don’t know. Given that the plan for an EU ‘drone wall’ was shot down immediately as unworkable --which it is given the scale of territory involved-- what is workable and allows people to work? Logically, without a plan we can expect more flights to be disrupted, with a growing economic impact.

Meanwhile, the world around us is in equal flux - but with some plans, both good and bad.

President Trump told CNN that Hamas faces “complete obliteration” if it refuses to cede power in Gaza, saying he’ll “soon know” if the group is serious about peace. Negotiators meet in Egypt today, so fingers crossed. Trump also reportedly Israeli PM Netanyahu to “take the win” and not to always be “so f***ing negative.” Either more massive violence or a sudden peace looms there – and both could prove transformative. Europe is merely an observer either way.  

There are unsubstantiated reports that China is providing Russia with satellite information to allow it to make missile strikes in Ukraine. Would that be a red line for Europe, or do European red lines there echo those of its policy over drone incursions?

The recent 100,000 SIM card plot to disrupt telecoms in New York around the UN general assembly was even larger than thought, says the US ABC, as it included New Jersey. Despite this being something which only a state would be capable of doing, and which only a few states would have even attempted, it isn’t being mentioned much by the media, either in the US or Europe.

Latin America remains on edge as the US Monroe Doctrine returns in force to push back against entrenched Russian, Iranian, Hamas/Hezbollah, and Chinese influence and whispers are that a move against Venezuela looms. Europe thinks an FTA with Mercosur is some kind of answer.

In Africa, ‘Trump’s peace hopes for Rwanda-Congo face threats’, says The Hill. Other locations also look concerning.

In domestic politics, the FT reports “enormous fear” given Trump’s threats against Soros and the non-profits sector, while a judge temporarily blocked the president from sending National Guard troops to Oregon.

In France, as he appoints new government ministers, PM Lecornu “tries to save skin by ruling out use of constitutional backdoor”, according to Politico; that’s as EU Commission President Von der Leyen faces another EU parliament confidence vote debate today.

In the UK, the government is considering banning repeat public protests; foreigners will be banned from claiming benefits, says the opposition Tory party, following the lead of Reform UK and Trump; yet Reform is seen likely to raise Kent council tax after its cost-cutting drive faltered, says the FT, showing there may be no way to cut spending in the UK, like the US, with the looming November national budget all about how much taxes rise, and on whom.

Japan’s first female PM, Sanae Takaichi, has already seen equities soar and 40-year bond yields do the same. She is seen as an Abe- or Trump-like figure, but with inflation now back, the BOJ slowly hiking, and the Yen nearly double the level vs the US dollar that it was when Abe launched his ‘three arrows’ well over a decade ago -- and the US unhappy about currency devaluations-- to say nothing about Japan’s domestic political dynamic, what is the plan?

In geoeconomics, it’s clearly protectionism and barter to avoid the weaponization of the US-centric financial system. For example, ‘China hawks grow queasy over Trump’s push for deals with Beijing’, says Bloomberg; ‘“Worse than Trump’s tariffs”: EU steel protections poised to pummel British industry’, adds Politico; ‘Chinese cars for Iranian metals: how sanctions revived barter trade’, notes Bloomberg; and ‘How China secretly pays Iran for oil and avoids US sanctions’, from the WSJ shows a “Hidden arrangement secured by prominent Chinese insurer connects Tehran with its biggest customer”.

Put that all together and we see that ‘America is now one big bet on AI’ (FT) as “It’s seen as the magic fix for every threat to the US economy.” Indeed, ‘Elon Musk Gambles Billions in Memphis to Catch Up on AI’, says WSJ, where “the city is divided over the massive power and water demands.” China is obviously all in in its own way. Naturally, the ‘EU pushes new AI strategy to reduce tech reliance on US and China’ (FT), with a plan for “digital sovereignty” – just without any of its own AI giants or the cheap energy needed to power it, and alongside rearmament and other acronymic wish-lists.

As a senior Wall Street figure just noted current AI mania only had bubble-like qualities, one might say what we currently have instead is merely ‘sparkling malinvestment’. Yet looked at politically, AI is a double-or-quits bet on a way to get us out of our current structural morass -- while destabilizing society in the process, warn some. And looked at geopolitically, it’s about the military: get military AI working properly and all bets are off. In fact, if one were deeply cynical one could argue regulators are happy to overlook wild market pricing at the moment in the pursuit of a private sector driven Manhattan Project.

Trying to some things up, Foreign Affairs magazine just published ‘Reading Schmitt in Beijing’, which argues the US drift away from both neoliberalism and liberalism mirrors its focus on China. Indeed, and that’s something I’d predicted as far back in late 2017: clearly think tanks and academics aren’t about their speed of thought.

Markets, once they finally get the gist of something, act much faster. For example, the main FT headline at the time of writing was all about gold: ‘‘Gold-plated Fomo’ powers bullion’s record-breaking rally’, as “Price has rocketed nearly 50% this year, its best performance since 1979, as institutional investors pile in”. Bitcoin is also back a fresh record high. I wonder why – and it isn’t all about “rate cuts!”, even if they do play a role in it.

Really, there’s nothing like a forced night’s sleep on a cold, hard airport floor to sharpen your focus on how the world actually works right now. If you still aren’t seeing it yourself, I suspect you may also get to experience it, or its equivalent, in the not-too-distant future.

Pack a spare blanket and toothbrush.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 10:00

October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:
House Prices Up 1.2% Year-over-year

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 1.2% year-over-year in September, up from 1.0% YoY in August.

ICE Home Price Index• Annual home price growth re-accelerated in early September following eight consecutive months of slowing ‒ rising to +1.2% from a revised +1.0% in August – as falling inventory met improved affordability from easing mortgage rates

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by +0.17% in the month, equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +2.1%, suggesting the annual home price growth rate may tick modestly higher in coming months

• The bulk of the firming occurred among single family residences, which are up +1.5% from the same time last year, an increase from +1.3% in August

• The condo market remains soft, with prices down -1.8% from the same time last year, a modest improvement from -1.9% in August

• Only 20% of markets saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, the fewest in nine months and down from 55% just two months prior
There is much more in the article.

Top Supreme Court Cases To Watch As Justices Reconvene

Zero Hedge -

Top Supreme Court Cases To Watch As Justices Reconvene

Authored by Sam Dorman and Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court is set to return on Oct. 6 for its 2025–2026 term, in which it will consider a series of cases that could affect major constitutional issues and impact President Donald Trump’s agenda.

The high court is expected to hear challenges to Trump’s policies and has already decided to hear arguments over Trump’s tariffs and attempts to fire high-level officials.

The Supreme Court will also consider whether states can ban men from playing in women’s sports, whether a ban on so-called conversion therapy violates free speech rights, and a variety of election-related cases that could affect the balance of political power in the United States.

Here are the top cases so far this term and what is at stake in each.

1. Trump’s Tariffs

In perhaps the most anticipated case this term, the high court will decide on the legality of a large swath of Trump’s tariffs.

Trump invoked an emergency powers law to impose reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries, as well as levies on Canada, Mexico, and China over the trafficking of fentanyl into the United States.

Several federal courts have ruled that those tariffs went beyond what the law allowed.

Under the Constitution, Congress has the power to impose tariffs, and it can delegate this authority to the president.

The Trump administration argues that the law, called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, authorizes the president to impose tariffs through a provision that grants the president the power to regulate importation.

However, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has pointed out that that section of the law does not explicitly use the term “tariffs.”

It blocked the tariffs, but has paused the effects of its ruling until after the Supreme Court issues its judgment.

The Supreme Court has set a consolidated oral argument for Nov. 5 in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections.

A truck carrying a shipping container at Port Newark Container Terminal in Newark, N.J., on April 10, 2025. President Donald Trump invoked an emergency powers law to impose reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

2. Removal of High-Level Bureaucrats

Through a series of high-profile firings, Trump has led the federal court system to revisit a 90-year-old Supreme Court precedent. The 1935 decision in Humphrey’s Executor v. United States held that Congress can set limits on the president’s ability to remove certain officials.

So far, lower courts have pointed to this decision as a basis for reversing Trump’s firings. Many of the lower court decisions have reached the Supreme Court’s emergency docket in recent months.

Although the justices have weighed in on some of those cases, they have not offered a final ruling on how far Congress can go in limiting Trump’s removal power.

That is expected to change soon, as the Supreme Court recently agreed to hear a case, Trump v. Slaughter, challenging Trump’s firing of a member of the Federal Trade Commission, Rebecca Slaughter.

That agency was also the subject of the decision in Humphrey’s Executor, which the Supreme Court has said it may be open to overruling.

In 1935, the court said Congress could restrict the president’s removal of Federal Trade Commission board members because they served a “quasi-legislative” or “quasi-judicial” role.

While the exact definitions of “executive” and “quasi-legislative” power remain uncertain, those questions will likely be central to the Supreme Court’s eventual decision.

The Supreme Court also said on Oct. 1 that it would hear oral arguments in January over Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook.

Trump sent Cook a letter on Aug. 25 stating that he was removing her “for cause,” citing “sufficient reason” to believe that she had made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements. He invoked the Federal Reserve Act, which states that the president can remove a member of the board “for cause.”

Cook has argued that Trump did not cite a legally recognized “cause” and that his interpretation of the law would “destroy the Federal Reserve’s historic independence.” She has also denied the allegation of fraud.

Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook attends the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Aug. 23, 2025. Trump invoked the Federal Reserve Act to remove Cook “for cause,” citing “sufficient reason” to believe that she had made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements. Jim Urquhart/File Photo/Reuters

3. Girls Athletics

In recent years, red states have advanced legislation to ban boys’ participation in girls’ sports. Two of those states, Idaho and West Virginia, are expected to appear before the Supreme Court this term to defend the legality of their policies on that issue.

The Supreme Court agreed to hear the cases after issuing another landmark decision in United States v. Skrmetti, which holds that states can ban hormone therapy or gender-altering surgeries for minors without violating the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.

The high court is expected to address that same constitutional provision in the sports cases Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J.

In both cases, students are arguing that the state laws discriminate based on “transgender status” and therefore violate the Constitution.

Beyond that issue, the Supreme Court is expected to look at whether West Virginia’s ban violates a federal law known as Title IX of the Civil Rights Act.

That decades-old law bans sex-based discrimination by educational institutions that receive federal funding.

An appeals court said in 2023 that West Virginia violated Title IX.

The Trump administration, in a friend-of-the-court brief, said that the state’s policies are legally sound.

The plaintiff in the Idaho case, a college senior, has reversed course and stated an intention to not participate in women’s sports. The student has suggested that the case is therefore moot, or irrelevant, before the court.

It is unclear whether that particular case will now proceed to oral argument.

The court has not yet set a date for the hearing.

President Donald Trump, joined by female athletes, signs the “No Men in Women’s Sports” executive order in the White House on Feb. 5, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

4. Redistricting

After Louisiana redrew its congressional district map in 2022, a group of private citizens, along with civil rights groups, sued.

The map only contained one mostly-black district, even though that group of voters represents one-third of the state’s population.

The plaintiffs argued that this was done to dilute black voting power in Louisiana and that it violated the Voting Rights Act of 1964.

That legislation prohibits laws or policies that “deny or abridge the right of any citizen of the United States to vote on account of race or color.”

The groups won in district court.

The judge ordered the state to draw the lines again and add another mostly-black district. Louisiana did so in 2024.

A group of non-black voters then sued, arguing that the redrawing based on race discriminated against non-minority voters.

The Supreme Court heard arguments in the case in March but declined to issue a ruling.

Instead, the court wanted more briefs and arguments from both sides about whether creating a second mostly-minority district violated the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment or the 15th Amendment.

The 15th Amendment prohibits voter discrimination based on “race, color, or previous condition of servitude.”

The outcome may have implications for the 2026 midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and Democrats are looking to retake that chamber.

In 2022, Republicans won five out of Louisiana’s six congressional seats.

In 2024, after the new map was introduced, the GOP won four of those seats and Democrats won two.

That case will be argued again on Oct. 15.

Customers eat as they watch the election results at the Louisiana Pizza Kitchen in New Orleans on Nov. 5, 2024. In 2024, after the new Louisiana congressional district map was introduced, the GOP won four of the state's six congressional seats, one fewer than in 2022. Sandy Huffaker/AFP via Getty Images

5. Pregnancy Center’s Donor Lists

First Choice Women’s Resource Centers provides free counseling to parents experiencing unplanned pregnancies but does not perform abortions or give abortion referrals.

In late 2023, New Jersey Attorney General Matt Platkin accused the pregnancy center of violating the state’s Consumer Fraud Act by hiding its pro-life stance from clients but openly promoting it to its donor base.

He also accused the group of “misinformation” because it claimed to be able to reverse chemical abortions in certain circumstances.

Platkin subpoenaed First Choice’s donor records, but the organization resisted.

Donors have a right to anonymity, it stated, and should be protected from political retaliation.

First Choice filed suit to block the subpoena, alleging that New Jersey was violating its First Amendment rights, since the investigation was politically motivated.

It also argued that the subpoena violated its Fourth Amendment rights against unreasonable search and seizure.

What followed was a complex series of court battles, which reached the Supreme Court in May 2024.

The court then declined to halt the subpoena.

The case continued in the lower courts, and in June, the high court revisited the matter and agreed to hear arguments this fall.

6. ‘Conversion Therapy’ Ban

Colorado instituted a ban on LGBT “conversion therapy” for minors in 2019.

The law prohibits licensed therapists from attempting to “change an individual’s sexual orientation, including efforts to change behaviors or gender expressions or to eliminate or reduce sexual or romantic attraction or feelings toward individuals of the same sex.”

Colorado therapist Kaley Chiles, who works with youth seeking to deal with unwanted same-sex attraction or gender dysphoria, pushed back with a federal lawsuit against the state in 2022.

Protesters gather in front of the Supreme Court as the court hears a case over banning gender procedures for minors, in Washington on Dec. 4, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The suit alleges that the law is a clear violation of Chiles’s First Amendment free speech rights.

District Judge Charlotte Sweeney of the U.S. District Court for the District of Colorado denied Chiles’s request to overturn the law in December that year.

Sweeney wrote that the law does not directly regulate Chiles’s speech; rather, it regulates her conduct as a state-licensed therapist.

Any infringement on her speech rights is “incidental,” according to the judge.

An appeals court later upheld that decision.

Colorado is one of 27 states, along with the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, that have restricted or banned conversion therapy for minors.

If the Supreme Court sides with Chiles, it may trigger suits against those laws.

Oral arguments are set for Oct. 7.

7. Hawaii’s Gun Restrictions

The court will take up a major gun case this term, considering the constitutionality of a Hawaii law that bans firearms on private property, unless the property owner has consented.

The case cites the 2022 Supreme Court decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, which states that firearm restrictions need to be consistent with the nation’s “history and tradition.”

Hawaii’s law states that if concealed carry permit holders want to take guns onto private property, including stores, restaurants, and hotels, they need permission, either verbally or through a sign.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit upheld the restrictions in 2024. A group of Hawaiians, along with the Hawaii Firearms Coalition, told the Supreme Court that the Ninth Circuit’s decision analyzed U.S. history, specifically previous laws, in the wrong way.

The Trump administration similarly argued that the law fell foul of the 2022 ruling.

“Because most property owners do not post signs either allowing or forbidding guns, Hawaii’s default rule functions as a near-complete ban on public carry,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote in a court filing.

Hawaii has responded by defending the Ninth Circuit’s ruling, arguing that the Second Amendment does not override a property owner’s right.

“The rule can be upheld for the independent reason that it represents a valid governmental effort to vindicate property owners’ fundamental right to exclude by enacting a default rule that comports with the community’s reasonable expectations,” a brief from the state reads.

The case, Wolford v. Lopez, has not yet been scheduled for oral argument.

8. Death Penalty and IQ

In November 1997, Joseph Clifton Smith and an accomplice murdered Durk Van Dam in Mobile County, Alabama, bludgeoning him to death for $140, his shoes, and some tools.

Smith was convicted, and a jury decided that he should be executed.

But in 2002, the Supreme Court ruled in another case that mentally disabled convicts could not be executed because their mental capabilities reduce their culpability and ability to assist lawyers in trial.

Following that ruling, Smith appealed his case.

He had taken multiple IQ tests with scores ranging from 72 to 78.

In Alabama, the threshold for intellectual disability is an IQ score of less than 70.

However, since Smith’s lowest test had an error range of plus or minus three points, a psychiatrist testified that his IQ could be as low as 69, which would put him in the range to avoid execution.

Alabama's lethal injection chamber at Holman Correctional Facility in Atmore, Ala., on Oct. 7, 2002. Dave Martin/AP Photo

A district judge and an appeals court agreed with this reasoning, ruling that Smith could not be executed.

Alabama challenged those rulings, arguing that the courts should have taken the full range of IQ scores into account instead of the error margin of the lowest score.

Arguments were originally set for November, but were removed from the calendar in mid-September.

The court has not yet rescheduled.

9. Campaign Spending

The controversy over money in politics is returning to the Supreme Court this term in a case regarding to what extent political parties and candidates can coordinate their spending.

Decades ago, Congress passed a law called the Federal Election Campaign Act, which imposes limits on this type of spending.

Coordinated expenditures include such activities as making payments for political consultants, renting venues for rallies, and spending money on political advertising.

In 2022, then-Senate candidate JD Vance, then-Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio), and two Republican committees brought a lawsuit questioning whether those limits violated the First Amendment.

When an appeals court reviewed the case in 2024, it was sympathetic to the Republicans’ arguments but said its hands were tied because of a previous Supreme Court decision that backed the idea that Congress could regulate coordinated expenditures without violating the First Amendment.

Republicans argue that the 2001 decision in Federal Election Commission v. Colorado Republican Federal Campaign Committee left some room for challenges based on the First Amendment.

They also contend that the government lacked a legitimate basis for imposing the limits.

Audience members watch the CNBC Republican Presidential Debate at the University of Colorado's Events Center in Boulder, Colo., on Oct. 28, 2015. The Federal Election Campaign Act, which imposes limits on coordinated expenditures by political parties and candidates, was challenged in 2022 by a lawsuit questioning whether those limits violated the First Amendment. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The Federal Election Commission, which the Republicans are suing, has similarly criticized the law, so the Supreme Court has appointed another attorney to defend the lower court decision.

Oral arguments in the case, National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission, have not yet been set.

10. Defense Contractor Liability

On Nov. 3, the Supreme Court is expected to consider whether defense contractors can be sued for liability over terrorist attacks in foreign countries. The case is Hencely v. Fluor Corp.

An Afghanistan veteran named Winston Hencely was critically injured in a 2016 suicide bombing. The terrorist attack occurred on a U.S. military base and was committed by the Afghan employee of a contractor who worked on the base.

An Army investigation found that the contractor, Fluor Corp., failed to properly supervise the bomber.

Hencely lost on the appeals level because of the court’s interpretation of the Federal Tort Claims Act, which generally shields the government from liability under certain circumstances.

One of those circumstances applies to the U.S. military during times of war.

Although Fluor Corp. was a contractor, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit held that the law’s protection for the federal government should be extended to companies such as Fluor.

U.S. Army soldiers retrieve their duffel bags after they return home from a nine-month deployment to Afghanistan at Fort Drum, N.Y., on Dec. 10, 2020. The Supreme Court is expected to consider whether defense contractors can be sued for liability over terrorist attacks in foreign countries. John Moore/Getty Images

11. Other Trump Cases

Besides the cases on Trump’s tariffs and his firing of officials, the Supreme Court may decide to weigh in on other challenges to the administration’s policies as they move up through the court system.

Many of the disputes have already reached the high court on its emergency docket, which lets the court temporarily allow or block executive actions while the case works its way through the lower courts.

As it has approached the 2025–2026 term, the Supreme Court has sent many cases back to lower courts, often allowing Trump to proceed with a particular action or policy.

For instance, it has allowed the Pentagon’s policy banning military troops with gender dysphoria, the administration’s withholding of billions of dollars in foreign aid, and deportations to third countries.

Several other cases are pending, including those challenging Trump’s plan to restrict birthright citizenship.

The Supreme Court ruled last term on procedural aspects of blocks to that policy but has yet to address underlying constitutional issues.

That could change, as the Trump administration asked the court on Sept. 26 to address whether Trump’s executive order seeking to restrict birthright citizenship is unconstitutional.

Combined, these cases present questions about the scope of executive authority and the nation’s separation of powers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 09:20

Transcript: Jose Minaya, BNY Global Head of Investments and Wealth

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Jose Minaya, BNY Global Head of Investments and Wealth, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple PodcastsSpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio

Barry Ritholtz: On the latest Masters in Business podcast. Wow. Jose Manaya runs wealth management services at BNY Bank of New York. Incredible Bank, incredible history. They’re literally the first bank. BNY is the first bank in America, the first publicly listed stock on the New York Stock Exchange. Not only do they have 2.2 trillion in assets, but they touch about one out of every $5 in assets globally. They touch, you know, 60, $70 trillion worth of assets, whether it’s through their clearing, their infrastructure, their custodianship. They’re just a massive bank. The oldest bank in America, the first bank in America, formed by Alexander Hamilton. Jose, has a fascinating background and a fascinating career. As both a chief investment officer and CEO few people are better positioned to talk about not only what’s happening in the state of wealth management in the US and globally, but what’s coming next, what, what digital technology and tokenization means for asset managers, as well as the impact of AI on how we’re all gonna deal with our, our dollars. I thought this co conversation was absolutely fascinating, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my Master’s in Business interview of B Y’s, Jose Manaya.

So let’s start out talking about your background. Bachelor’s in finance from Manhattan College, an MBA from Tuck Business School at Dartmouth. What was the career plan?

Jose Minaya: You know, I, I, my career plan was always a work in progress. I, I, I always say I almost had like, a little bit of a Forest Gump approach to, to starting my career. I first, I’m a first generation American, so, you know, I grew up in Washington Heights to a Dominican, in a Dominican family, Dominican parents. So baseball was big, my life. And for a while there I thought I was gonna be a pro baseball player up. What’d you play? I was, I was a pitcher. Did pretty well, did pretty well up until the point that I didn’t.

Barry Ritholtz: High School or college?

Jose Minaya: High school and college. Yeah.

Barry Ritholtz: I pitched in high school, no curve ball. That’s the end of your pitching career.

Jose Minaya: Yeah. I, my whole thing is if I threw strikes, I did pretty well. Right. If I didn’t, I was gonna get in trouble. So

Barry Ritholtz: You a little control issue, is that the problem? Yeah,

Jose Minaya: A little control issues. Yeah. It’s

Barry Ritholtz:  Hard to throw both hard and accurately.

Jose Minaya: Yes, it is. Yes, it is. It’s like, like everything else, it’s about trying to find the balance. Right.

Barry Ritholtz: So that’s right. So you mentioned you’re a first generation American. How did that affect you? What, what, what does that do to your worldview, your work ethic? How, how does it affect your outlook and, and career progress?

Jose Minaya: Look, I, I think being a first gen and, and just kind of my, you know, the neighborhood I grew up, which I often described to people, you know, if you’ve been to Chinatown, well, Washington Heights, when I grew up there was the Dominican version of, of Chinatown. But look, I mean, I grew up around strong family values. I had a great home life, very privileged that way. Strong work ethic coming in. But I, but I did, but I did grow up in a bubble, right? So one end, what I took with me when I exited or left that bubble was work, work, work ethic, was kind of really understanding relationships and, and, and that, but then when I left that bubble, it was more defined by, okay, I was in different audiences. I was in, in situations where then more acclimating was kind of more my, my focus and my goal for early part, early part of my career.

Barry Ritholtz: Really, really interesting. You come out of Tuck, you end up being an analyst. Tell us about the early days post, post grad school.

Jose Minaya: Yeah, I think post grad school, I, I was still trying to figure out what I, what I really wanted to do. Because, you know, if I even go pre, you know, coming outta undergrad, you know, I, I had a finance degree, I was good at math and, you know, I asked people, what are you supposed to do with this? And people mentioned Wall Street and firms like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. And I was fortunate enough to get a job at JP Morgan. I went, everyone was taking a gmat. I had no idea what a GMAT was, but I figured I’m supposed to take it as well. And I went to grad school and then coming outta grad school, I went back to Wall Street. I not, not necessarily thinking that’s what I wanted my career to be, but I didn’t really have a plan for anything else.

I think as I started really searching around what I wanted to do and, and, and instead of advising people kind of doing things that were gonna be there for the long term, build something, you know, I found my way into the buy side. Right? And then my first job kind of in investing, working at a IG Global in investment group. I think today it’s called PineBridge. But that was my first real, like, investing job. And, and even there, finding my way, I started out in equities and I was like, okay, I like this. But I felt like, you know, the other side, as I ran into people on the bond side and, and, and, and private credit, I, I felt that that was more kind of cashflow based versus I used to get anointed where my model, I felt like my models were right, but the market’s never cooperated with.

So it didn’t matter that I was right. I felt more at home in that environment where it was more around, okay, how, how do I judge the downside? How do I kind of really analyze cash flows? And, and then I found myself on the buy side and I found myself as a private credit manager. I think from there, interestingly enough, I said, Hey, this, I found my thing. I love doing this. And I always found myself in situations where I did what I did really well, and somebody always asked me to do a little more. And in that little more, it was always kind of like extending myself and say, okay, am I still the SME or am I now gathering and, and doing different things. And then ultimately, especially when I was at TIA, it was this idea of like, oh, you know, should we go into agriculture? Should we go into commodities? And I was like, well, here, I’m a kid from New York City. I don’t really know anything about agriculture and commodities. But you know what, I, I kind of dived in and said, this is interesting. This was the other thing that took me to another place in my career that, that I’d say I took another people viewed as a big risk. ’cause at that point, you know, I was managing about a $15 billion private credit portfolio back then. That was a, that was a pretty major thing.

Barry Ritholtz: It felt like a lot of money

Jose Minaya: And it was and is, and I, I kind of made a decision from doing these kind of nights and weekends on this project of going into farmland. I made a decision to say, you know what? I’m gonna leave all this behind. I wanna go try to build this. And even my chief, the CIO at the time said, are you sure you want to do this? Because, you know, maybe I’ll tell you what, what don’t you, why don’t you give this a run? But you know what, we, we will, we’ll keep your job warm for you here. I think he figured he’ll come running back in six months, give

Barry Ritholtz: This a run, meaning the CIO position?

Jose Minaya: Meaning running a farmland fund. Oh, okay. Yeah. And, and you know, I, I, so I, I went out and said, oh, I wanna do this. We ended up becoming the largest farmland fund institutional manager for farmland assets globally at, at the time. And, you know, one of the things that my philosophy in doing these things is, you know, taking the confidence to always kind of try things that get me excited and, and that I feel passionate about. But I think throughout my investing life, you know, one mantra I’ve always had is, you know, you gotta be really good at knowing what you don’t know. And that, that comes with being more humble. That comes with kind of asking a lot of questions, not being intimidated by bringing people around you that are smarter than you. ’cause I was like, Hey, I could understand people, I can understand math now.

How do I fill in these blanks? How do I get people around me? They’re gonna give me kind of the knowledge that I know I don’t have. And that, that career permission was from farmland. They said, Hey, wow, you did an amazing job. Can you take real estate? Can you take natural resources? Can you take all of private markets? And then ultimately, can you be the chief investment officer? And then growing that into a asset management firm. And what I realized was that what I thought my passion was, was in investing, but the real passion that I really found was, was in building, building things, you know, managing teams and bringing teams together.

Barry Ritholtz: So, so I wanna circle back to building what you did at Nuveen. How do you go from JP Morgan to a IG to Merrill? What ultimately leads you to Nuveen?

Jose Minaya: You know, what leads me to Nuveen is just, it, I always say like, picking up the breadcrumbs, right? I was, I was on a journey of really kind of, of searching again, what’s my passion? What do I want to do? I was very fortunate, you know, here I am, I’m sitting on at a job on Wall Street at JP Morgan. Very fortunate to have it, but I couldn’t see myself doing that job for 20 years. Then I’m like, oh, I’m fortunate to get a job. I’m the buy side. And I’m like, okay, this is great. I’m at a IG, you know, it’s a terrific opportunity, terrific firm. Yet there’s still that thing that I’m kind of still trying to find that feels like, Hey, what’s really getting my juices going? And, you know, it was always that search for, for that thing that kind of made me get up early in the morning. And when I ultimately landed at Nuveen, which is part of TIA, that was that role. And I ended up being there 20 years. And then, and I, and I will tell you the large, the the longest role I’ve ever had in my life, in my entire career was my five years or so. As, as my role as CEO there, 20,

Barry Ritholtz: Even 20 years is a long time in the modern world to be at any one firm. It seems people don’t do that anymore. What was it that kept you there? It sounds like they kept piling on new challenges and really keeping you engaged.

Jose Minaya: Yeah, that’s exactly right. Meaning I like the longest role I’ve had in my career is the five years I was the CEO part of that, every three, four years, someone was giving me something else to build. I always say I, I get itchy. I maybe I’m not the best steward in the world, but what does get me excited is, is building things, kind of building new teams, you know, the challenge of kind of like growing a capability. And I got to do that. Over the course of 20 years, I’ve been extremely blessed. And same thing in moving to my role now, it’s, it’s a tremendous opportunity. And, you know, I could still say that 20 plus years, I, I still get excited every morning to kind of go to work. When,

Barry Ritholtz: When you say building new teams, give us an example of some of the sort of teams you helped build that kept you occupied for 20 years.

Jose Minaya: Sure. I mean, one, I I, I mentioned the farmland example. That was a complete startup from, from scratch, from $0

To kind of go in and building a team, you know, I’m very proud of what we did in private credit. You know, we, we started the Churchill group with, you know, again, that was finding the right people, finding Ken Kinsel, who was a tremendous leader and had a team with ’em. And we started with Zero. Today, that broader platform at Nuveen is almost, you know, call it just short of a hundred billion in, in private credit. So there’s multiple examples like that where the, basically the blueprint was either we were doing an acquisition or we were finding a team, and we’re saying, okay, we’ve got the right makings here of a team. How do we give this team the right tools and go out and try to grow, grow a platform?

Barry Ritholtz: So you’re no stranger to alternatives. We, we’ve talked about farmland, real estate, private credit, private debt, natural resources. What is your view today on alts? What do you think about, what kind of feels a little bit like a land rush? What, what’s going on in the world of Alts today?

Jose Minaya: Yeah, and you know, it feels like a land rush. But I, I will tell you that this has been building for some time. And, and, and the interesting thing is, you know, if I go back 10, 15 years ago, my pitch talking to clients around alternatives was one that was largely academic, right? It was this idea of diversification.

Hey, by the way, I know you haven’t seen inflation in 20 years, but it may show up. And if it does, are you protected for it by the way? You may be going to a market where there’s a lot more volatility. Have you thought about that? And then also, hey, have you thought about yield? You know, you know, there’s ways to kind of think about principle protection in your portfolio, and then yield and alternatives. I would say it’s just a way of bringing in the right correlations into your portfolio. And the, and, and some of the biggest alpha in alternatives is the lack of access,

Barry Ritholtz: Meaning the illiquidity, you can’t sell in a panic because the market’s off 8%. Yeah.

Jose Minaya: And in many ways, you know, you’re, you’re going to kind of structure and get a return. You’re looking for, because the, there, there, you need to have a specific skill or access point to get those assets so that maybe the markets are a little bit less efficient. You know, the interesting thing is today that academic conversation has turned into urgency, right? So now, while markets have obviously continued to be at all time highs, I think individual investors have felt what volatility feels like, whether that was coming out of the global financial crisis, whether that was at a COVID and the, in the, in the pandemic. We have felt and seen a lot of significant volatility.

Barry Ritholtz: 2022, first time in 40 years, stocks and bonds, both down double digits. Like people seem to think volatility gets conquered every few years. And whenever there’s any sort of complacency, the market says, now’s the time to teach people. Volatility never goes away.

Jose Minaya: And, and throughout that, throughout that time period, you’ve also have seen the growth of index funds, right? So also on top of that is this idea of like, you know, I always say the world’s become more commoditized. When I entered the industry, you differentiated yourself by picking better securities in the next person and driving returns. Then all of a sudden there was a focus on cost, believe it or not, once upon a time, you know, fees, nobody paid attention.  Nobody paid attention to fees. I think then it was, well, no, you’re gonna compete on fees as well. And then it became the race to zero. Today, you know, investment performance is obviously extremely important, but it’s table stakes costs, were all, we’re, we’re all kind of basically at the bottom end of that curve for cost. So now it’s, it’s more around what are the outcomes you’re gonna deliver to someone.

Technology is a, it’s a big component. It is the flexibility that you offer, you offer clients, but it is ultimately about what is the outcomes you’re gonna get to clients. And that 70 30 portfolio, that passive fund that said, Hey, you’re in a target date fund, you don’t have to do anything. Just sit back and it all adjusts and drives kind of the returns you need. Well, in those moments where correlations go to one, it didn’t feel so good. That’s right. It didn’t feel so good. And I think now it’s, there’s more sophistication in terms of how you package, you know, solutions. More sophistication now on the need to get alternatives to to, to clients. I think these things all now, I think again, what was an academic conversation today is, is an, is an urgency.

Barry Ritholtz: So the phrase I’ve heard from a number of people over the past year or so has been 70/30, 60/40. That’s the old way, the new way is 50/30/20. Are you in that camp?

Jose Minaya: Yeah. Look, I think 50, 30, 21. 30, 30. Look at the end of the day, I, I always say it’s not really about whether you should be in the 50, the 30. Ultimately it starts with a conversation around what are the outcomes you’re looking for? What are your needs, right? These, these markets that when you think about alternatives, by the way, these are not get rich quick right? Schemes. These are not like, oh my God, we need alternatives. ’cause there’s like this outsized return. In many cases I’ve mentioned to you farmland that was a four to 6% return market, but extremely consistent and

Barry Ritholtz:  longtime lockups, right? ?

Jose Minaya: Yeah. And, but it gave you a certain correlation. So yes, fit like all these different mechanisms. At the end of the day though, what it’s really all about is what are the outcomes you’re trying to drive for your clients? And, and, and what is the sophistication we have and the ability to construct those portfolios. And the most important thing in constructing those portfolios is do you have access to a broad array of capabilities? Because the more access you have to different types of assets, the better the outcome is Portfolio theory 1 0 1.

Barry Ritholtz: You led the company through a big expansion through the COVID Pandemic, and then you helped expand the entire digital engagement. Tell us a little bit about what you put together at Nuveen.

Jose Minaya: Well, I think I get at Nuveen if, if I, you know, was quite a 20 year journey. ’cause I joined when it was basically just the investment team for TIA.

Barry Ritholtz: That was right after the dotcom implosion ?

Jose Minaya: That was around oh four actually. Yeah, I really started in oh five. And really I was just an, it was just an investment team. Like I said, I joined as a, as a fixed income portfolio manager at the time. We’re managing money for about a $200 billion general account where everything was based in New York City.

Barry Ritholtz: When you say general account, you’re managing it on behalf of Nuveen, not specific clients.

Jose Minaya: I was managing on behalf of the, the balance sheet of tia, which is an insurance, right? Which is an insurance company. So it largely just, that was really the structure. We nuveen we had not acquired Nuveen yet at that, at that time. But from that 200 billion you fast forward to today and what I was there to help build and it became a trillion dollar wow. Asset manager one where it still managed approximately $200 billion balance sheet, but then it raised another 800 plus billion in just outside capital. And these are sovereign wealth funds, wealth platforms, retail. And it grew to, you know, about almost two, two and 250 billion in alternatives as well. So pretty diversified diversified shop, which now you’re seeing a lot of firms trying to kind of capture that same, not just scale, but diversity in, in their business. Let’s

Barry Ritholtz:  Talk a little bit about real assets that you’ve had a lot of background in. Tell us about real estate, agriculture, timber infrastructure. Tell us how you built those areas previously at Nuveen, now at BNY.

Jose Minaya: Sure. And I think, look, I think first, if you think about those different asset classes I go back to, these are not typically, you know, strategies that you’re trying to get outsized returns. If they, sometimes they come and they’re very much welcomed. They’re typically pretty, pretty structured transactions, right? Whether it’s buildings with rents, farmland with, with leases infrastructure with kind of 20, 30 year contracts. Often there is a hedge against inflation, whether that is contractual or just by the nature of the commodity. So

Barry Ritholtz: Right, prices go up, land goes up, that follows it…

Jose Minaya: Yeah. So the simple kind of math on these things are, I’m clipping a coupon. So there’s a yield component and it’s a pretty steady one. I I I, I have a gold like protection because if you think about what do I own, I own farmland in, in a particular case, well that produces a, a a need for society in perpetuity. So there’s a certain kind of protection in your principle in owning that. Or, you know, wind farms, just, again, there’s intrinsic value. I have a yield, but it’s usually tied to a commodity. And because of that, there’s also an inflation hedge component to it. And it brings down my volatility because it’s, again, it’s, it’s more of that consistent return profile. So it plays that part in portfolios that it gives a yield, it gives it in a way that should be pretty kind of high sharp ratio, low, lower volatility.

Now today, that market is start it, it’s, it is trying to get into more mainstream. Now if I fast forward to my opportunity going to B and y, now look, I, I had that journey in my previous life. What I saw in BNY is where the industry is going, right? BNY obviously is two times the size of where, where I came from, but it’s also part of BNY, the bank and BNY the bank touches about a fifth, a fifth of the world’s investible assets. So there’s almost 60. That’s amazing. Yeah. There’s almost $60 trillion, call it fifty five, fifty 6 trillion to be exact that the bank is touching. And it’s either managing these assets, it’s either custodying these assets or it’s helping move kind of the financial, the global financial markets around. That is tremendous kind of access points to someone like me sitting as an asset manager, because I’m working at, I’m working at a firm that is one of the largest asset servicers in the world.

It also is one of the largest servicers to wealth platforms. I registered investment advisors. Well, I have a wealth platform. I manage, I manage an investment platform. How do I get advantage of the fact that there’s tremendous technology being invested to, to help serve asset managers. And if I go back to a comment that we, that we talked about previously, which is if the world’s becoming more commoditized, we performance in cost, then what is the difference? The difference in what is the tip of the spear is technology. You hear about tokenized assets, which of which b and y is on the forefront, that’s just about helping clients move money quicker.

Barry Ritholtz: Do define what tokenized assets mean when we’re talking about stocks or bonds.

Jose Minaya: I think we, the, the simplest way that I think about tokenized assets is it’s an ability to, again, be more liquid. Meaning if you were in a t plus one scenario, do you have the ability to be in a T+5 minutes scenario?

Barry Ritholtz: So for, for the lay person, T+1 means you sell something today, it clears tomorrow the cash is in your account. One day later, t plus zero as some people call it, means you sell it and you instantly get the cash. Is that what tokenization does for, for people?

Jose Minaya: That’s, that’s a big component. So that’s creating that liquidity where if you had to wait 24 hours, now you can wait a lot less than 24 hours. The other thing that it helps do is also kind of Dr you’re able to earn a yield on,

Barry Ritholtz:  ’cause you’re getting the cash now for most people one day doesn’t matter. But scale that up to an institution, scale that up to a bank and insurer that day times thousands and thousands of accounts and transactions really adds up, doesn’t it?

Jose Minaya: I mean, scale that to, again, BNY is kind of touching and helping move $55 trillion.

Barry Ritholtz:  So T+0 or T+5 minutes, that’s much better than t plus one.

Jose Minaya: That, and it’s a big difference. And your ability, again, to potentially earn a yield in that process also, right? In that, in that whole t plus one, in that 24 hours, in many cases, you’re not able to earn a yield while that money is clearing. So

Barry Ritholtz: Back in the bad old days when it was T plus three, we were always told, Hey, it takes three days to just make sure there’s no fraud. The right stock is going to the right buyer, the money goes to the right account. And when they got shrunk down to one day, well, technology has allowed us to do this, but we still need a day just to verify everything. What is it that allows us to go to t plus zero? Is it just technology? Tell us how, how that works.

Jose Minaya: Yeah, look, I think techno obviously the blockchain technology is one component. The other component is the fact that, you know, one of the reasons BNY can lead in this area is that it, it, it custodies around 80 plus percent of the digital assets,

Barry Ritholtz: The world digital assets meaning in the world, Ethereum, Bitcoin, any other sort of things like that.

Jose Minaya: And, and it’s one of the largest custodian in the world in general. So clearing something becomes a lot easier when it’s all sitting in inside. I mean, think about a warehouse. If I don’t have to move it from where one warehouse to the other, that makes life a lot easier. So that’s

Jose Minaya: Goes from one, you’re not even moving it from one road to another. You’re just changing the label. Here’s who owns this. Yeah.

Jose Minaya: Now, and again, I’ll tell you, for me it’s, I was having a conversation with our CEO about this the other day where I’m like, one of the other things I love about my career right now, look, it, it’s been a long time since I’ve walked into rooms and I’m learning something. ’cause typically, you know, you be, I was a subject matter or expert. And typically most rooms that I walked into, I, I felt like I I was the expert in that, in that category. I’m not an expert on tokenization. I’m not an expert on, on, on, on custody. I work at a firm that that is, that has experts and, you know, you’re quickly, quickly learning and what’s important there, I go back to, hey, but what I do understand, even though I know what I don’t know, is this matters to my clients. So all of a sudden, if I, if I am trying to think about, hey, how am I pitching my services to clients in Asia and, and around the globe, and I, and I have a differentiating factor, meaning I can help you go to t plus zero, that is a differentiator from a relationship perspective.

00:26:12 And this is what I mean by where today it’s, it’s, there’s so much more consolidation in the asset management industry because scale is important. And why is scale important? Because you then need to be able to service and invest in these technologies to service your client. AI is is a big topic today. And I would, I would, I would argue and say, well, if it’s no longer debatable that AI is here and it’s gonna be disruptive, it’s gonna make a difference. So if you believe that, you also have to believe that the firms who can invest in it are gonna be the winners for tomorrow. Now I, you know, being able to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in, in ai, that takes significant scale, that takes kind of diversified businesses, being able to hire engineers, right? So when I was sitting usually in the role of running an asset management shop, it’s very hard for me to even say, how am I even gonna attract engineers from Silicon Valley? How am I gonna be able to pay them? Well, BNY is a massive tech stack, right? Like they can attract a lot of engineers, they can attract a lot of investment in ai. I just happen to be in that realm, part of that universe, and I’m gonna be able to benefit from, from that technology.

00:27:23 [Speaker Changed] So let me step back a second, because we’re all guilty of using acronyms and even something like BNY, you and I understand it, but perhaps the listener needs to learn a little more. BNY is Bank of New York. It’s been around for how long?

00:27:40 [Speaker Changed] 240 plus years. I think I wear 2 41, 2 41 9.

00:27:44 [Speaker Changed] So, so more than almost two and a half centuries. More than two centuries.

00:27:48 [Speaker Changed] Well, I gotta add to the, ’cause I’m always fa I I will tell you, even as I joined BNY, there were things I did not know, you know, obviously it’s, it’s the first bank in the United States. It was the first bank to issue, the first loan or warrant

00:28:00 [Speaker Changed] Begun by

00:28:01 [Speaker Changed] Alexander Hamilton. It’s the first company traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Amazing. It was the first first public company, right. You know, our first clients of the, of the bank where George Washington and Eliza Hamilton and, you know, so it’s, it’s just got incredible, incredible history,

00:28:18 [Speaker Changed] Unbelievable history. In addition to all that history, BNY is also affiliated through ownership with a lot of really well-known names within finance. Tell us about some of the other divisions that maybe people will, will be more familiar with those names.

00:28:35 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, and I’ll tell you, I think this has a lot to do with kind of the recent performance you’re seeing about the firm because it’s unlocking what we would describe. As, you know, BNY is a platform operating PLA has a, has a platform operating model, meaning it has multiple platforms, you know, of course it has an asset manager and it has a wealth business, as we said. It’s got a two, $2 trillion asset manager. It’s got about a $350 billion private bank wealth platform, by the way. It also owns Pershing and

00:29:04 [Speaker Changed] Pershing Giant Clearing Shop. And,

00:29:06 [Speaker Changed] And that captures around almost 3 trillion in, in advisors, advisors capital that it’s servicing through a technology and a service and a service platform. It, it’s has an asset servicing arm. And that asset servicing is serving both asset managers and asset owners doing things like custody fund accounting. It, it, it, it has a treasury component as well. You know, the other interesting thing about BNY is it clears all the treasuries of the United States. So, you know, it’s a gsib it’s a, it’s a significant bank and plays an important part in our financial, in our financial system.

00:29:45 [Speaker Changed] Hmm. Really, really interesting. So tell me the story of how you move from Nuveen to your role as global head of BNY investments. You’re doubling the size of the assets, you’re responsible. Have you approached this change? What, what sort of challenges did you face?

00:30:03 [Speaker Changed] You know, I, I think every challenge that’s kind of a, that’s really attracted me, including what, you know, what kept me in my previous role and, and the different roles I was in, it was the opportunity for growth, right? And I think looking at, at BNY and, and seeing where I believe the industry is going, just saw a tremendous opportunity of what is a $2 trillion shop, you know, should, should easily be a $4 trillion shop, right? Wow. And you think about the ecosystem that, that we play in within BNY, right? As I mentioned, you, you know, we, we manage money for other people. As an asset manager, we manage money also as a wealth platform for, for families and individuals. Yet we also s have, we also service other wealth advisors through purging, but they’re also are the clients of the firm. I’m an asset manager.

00:30:56 A lot of my competitors are clients of BNY as well. So, and then you think about the technology that it takes to do all that and, and, and grow that technology stack. I I feel like a kid on a candy store for two reasons. One that’s sets a tremendous amount of infrastructure and capabilities that are there that I should have a home field advantage to. The other thing is that has become a lot easier in my job is, you know, when you touch a fifth of the world’s assets, most most people are your clients. So getting, getting, having a conversation with potential clients is very easy to do. A lot of what you’ve seen, the, the, the recent success of BNY, and I think you said this earlier, is a collection of a lot of different things that were either acquired or, or built is that, but it was also a very siloed organization for a while. The ability of having that cross connection. If I look at a world that AI is gonna be important, you know, being able to touch your clients in multiple ways and have broader technology, I am sitting in that, in, in a spot where in those, all those platform operating models, I’m two of those, but I’m, I’m fitting in pretty well. I’m trying to take the advantage of the other five or six that are around me. A great example of that, of what that I is Archer. Archer is, is

00:32:14 [Speaker Changed] That’s a digital platform.

00:32:16 [Speaker Changed] It’s a technology platform for SMAs, right? So IE your ability to clients want to be able to, we talked about solutions, your ability to go to an archer. And by the way, my previous job, Archer, I was, was a, I was a client of Archer

00:32:30 [Speaker Changed] And smma stand for separately managed accounts or

00:32:33 [Speaker Changed] Separately managed accounts. Again, now you go back to technology, meaning you may be able to manage bonds and equities and alternatives or even tax managed solutions. Believe it or not, bringing that together in a package for individuals takes technology. Of course, asset managers, traditionally they’re, they’re stock pickers or investors. They’re not technology people. So you go to that platform and do that. Now, when I joined BNY, I’m like, okay, this is great. They’ve acquired Archer. I know that they have a great capability for doing this and this is a growing market. And already our, our wealth platform is a client of Archer. Before it was even acquired, the asset management arm of BNY was already a client was acquired. Now Archer is also free to grow because it services a broader cap, broader capability. So if you’re

00:33:19 [Speaker Changed] BY it services BNY and BNY clients.

00:33:22 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And that’s important because again, if you think about this, the model of tomorrow and what scale matters is one, you can, you it’s its own business and just kind of providing what Archer does to the broader, to the broader like community. We get an inside, we, we get an inside view and a home field advantage in getting it ourselves. Typically if I build my own SMA platform, I have to now worry about how do I feed it to grow it. Other people are feeding it to grow it. And I get the benefit of kind of being attached to it. And I think that connectivity around, hey, everything I do in my, in on the asset management side, you know, all those clients at purging, they buy that as well. Should we not be engaging with our clients to do more for them? It’s like, sure, we’re doing clearing for you in custody and offering you technology. We also have asset management, all of them obviously by asset management as well. So having those connective dots I think is, I think is a tremendous competitive advantage.

00:34:20 [Speaker Changed] So I wanna talk a little bit about your role. I wanna define it better. At Nuveen, you were CIO and then you were CE O2 distinct positions. Your title is Head global, head of BNY, investments and Wealth Sounds like a little bit of each. You, you are building, but you’re also helping to direct the investing. Tell us a little bit about your roles and responsibilities in this new position at BNY.

00:34:46 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I think I look at one end of the spectrum is very similar to my previous role, which is BNY investments is an asset manager. You know, obviously it’s a much bigger one than, than, than than the firm I came from. But it’s an asset manager. And there, you know, I’m, I’m the chief executive for that particular platform. We also have a wealth platform and, and, and, and very different from asset management. It’s more dealing with individuals and advice, but there’s also synergies in the business, right? Meaning if you’re a wealth advisor, you’re talking about how do you create investment products, how do you source ’em? Well, we have investment products and how do we, how do we make sure those two groups are talking to each other? What’s the products that we are creating? If you’re an asset manager, a big part of who our clients are are wealth advisors.

00:35:32 So having a good understanding of kind of what wealth advisors need, it really helps to have a, a wealth advisor in house. Sure. So I’m managing a larger platform, but at the end of the day, my job is still very similar. It’s about picking the right teams and people you, you know, we talk about $2 trillion and I would tell you 2 trillion should go to 4 trillion. We don’t own any of that money. At the end of the day, our biggest value set of what we do and have is our people. And obviously the technology that we can, we can offer those folks, but people is kind of really our business. And I’ve kind of see my job today really as the chief Chief people officer for how we kind of build teams around this

00:36:10 [Speaker Changed] Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jose Manaya, global head of B Y’s Investment and Wealth, discussing his experiences at Nuveen, TIAA. I’m Barry Riol, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

00:36:40 I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My special guest this week is Jose Manaya. He is the global head of BNY Investments and Wealth, helping to manage over $2.2 trillion in client assets. So, so let’s talk about who the clients are at BNY. You mentioned RIAs and advisors, my day job, but you also work with institutions, you work with high net worth and family offices as well as other players in the investing world who are also clients. Sounds like you guys are a little bit of everything to a lot of different people. How do you keep all that running smoothly? How do you keep all those balls in the

00:37:29 [Speaker Changed] Air? Yeah, well look, I think BNY is often described as the bank of banks, right? Because again, it’s kind of that broader provider and in goes the opportunity set, right? Like again, you look at the, the firm, I don’t know the last high look, the stock was about 1 0 6, you know, that’s in, in less than a three year span of thereabouts from $40. It makes it one of the best performing kind of financial stunts

00:37:52 [Speaker Changed] And financials have been kinda lagging the tech sector for a couple of years. They’re starting to play a little bit of catch up,

00:37:58 [Speaker Changed] They’re playing a little catch up, they’re doing better. But I think few are doing better, if any, are doing better than than b and y. Some of it goes back to that question you just asked me. Yeah. That there’s a lot of these, the, the way it would, the way typically these conglomerates or these platforms were typically managed, were very siloed. You know, the ability to bring in the, the technology and the leadership to say, how do we have better connectivity across all our platforms is where the value proposition is. And the market is seeing that, and the market is rewarding that.

00:38:32 [Speaker Changed] So it’s funny, earlier we talked about how commoditized so much of the world has become. You are basically saying we need to be an integrated solutions provider and not just have these commoditized silos, which is what exists outside of a mega bank of banks like VNY.

00:38:51 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so much. We used to talk about the, you know, concept of selling watches. You know, I think that, you know, the, the, the world doesn’t really, it’s, it’s hard to sell watches now. People, people are looking for, they need, you know, our clients are getting more efficient. They need to scale their operations as well. And it’s the idea of like, do I wanna work with 150 managers or am I better off working with 20, 30 or 40? And if I’m going to go from 150 different types of managers, you know, to 20 or 30, how do I pick those 20 or 30? What’s gonna differentiate that? So I think a lot of that is, is what’s driving the need for scale. It’s what’s driving the need for consolidation and it’s also driving a lot of in innovation.

00:39:35 [Speaker Changed] So you, you’ve mentioned technology a couple of times. We’ve talked about tokenization and a little bit about ai. What are the big technological trends that we can look for over the next couple of years? Where are you thinking about how technology’s gonna have the biggest impact on asset managers and on investors?

00:39:57 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, it’s interesting and, and honestly, I often, I, my, my narrative has changed. I used to say, look, AI is gonna be very disruptive, but I have no idea if it’s five years from now or 20 years from now. And by the way, that makes it very difficult to invest in it, right? Because it’s, when are you gonna get the returns for it, you know, clearly. Now that’s come into a lot more clarity because where, you know, AI has begun to already yield returns for firms. And BNY is no different, is on the productivity side, right? You know, I think BNY is one of the first firms to have digital employees, so digital employees that can work on real problems. And that’s driving productivity increases. And that’s kind of been a large part of the narrative with, with ai. Now the new narrative is it can also provide value add.

00:40:47 So again, as an in, as a, as an investor, do you have the capability of, instead of the, the old way of, we’re gonna look at satellite pictures and see how many cars are in the, are in the, on the driveway. Well now AI can actually track devices, right? And kind of see where things are coming. AI is able to go through a lot more information and, and disseminate that information. So, you know, I I still say that human beings with AI will be better than human beings without ai, IE you’re still gonna need the component for, for human beings in, in the mix. But so much of the future is unknown. And, and, and by the way, I think that’s also the uneasy part that we are today in our markets. ’cause if you, if you speak to individuals on one end, I can kind of picture and say the economy is doing great earnings, earnings are strong consumer household balance sheets are strong, wages are still relatively, you know, strong as well.

00:41:49 And there’s a, there’s a strong kind of like very constructive view to putting your money in the markets today, even at these valuations. Hmm. The other side of that story is, okay, but then are we losing the independence of the Fed? Are there geopolitical issues and wars out there that can also, you know, cause massive disruptions in, in, in the global economy, policy issues, you know, and fiscal issues coming to the forefront. That could just be mistakes that happen. So at the same time, there’s so many things then that, that can go wrong, right? If I always say we’re probably at a all time high of things that can go wrong, yet where you sit today should feel pretty good in terms of, you know, the, the economics and, and the economy. And I think technology is the same thing. It’s like, wow, AI is gonna be disruptive. Where what we think AI can do is literally changing every week, every month. And again, that in many ways is exciting. In many ways. It’s also extremely unsettling,

00:42:53 [Speaker Changed] To say the very least since, since you brought up the current state of the world, profits are all time highs, but it seems like risks are all time highs. I wanna throw two of your own quotes back at you and, and get your thoughts on it. In the beginning of this year, you said risk assets are going higher. What led you to that conclusion? And has the year played out as you expected?

00:43:19 [Speaker Changed] Clearly? Look, I, I, I think, and I think there was a little bit, I, I think I was challenged a little bit on that comment. And remember I said it right after liberation day. So the markets were obviously falling off. There was a tremendous amount of concern with the tariffs and what would come, you know, I I had two thoughts there. One, understanding that I thought the current administration that we have was going to about the carrot and the stick, and we started out the year with the stick, but you know, what, the carrot was gonna show up at some point. And then two, this other view of, you know, most of us don’t have a choice to be risk off, right? The, the idea that like, you know, being risk off through these different cycles hasn’t really paid off. So the one thing we should do is like, go back and look at the fundamentals.

00:44:04 But yes, if you’re saying I’m gonna just take a correlation of one or just take broad market exposure, it’s more than, again, the academic conversation being more of an urgency. If you think about the, the actual conversation around I’m structured for solutions for outcomes in my portfolio, then why should you be risk off? You’ve, you already planned for this, right? I, I maybe plan to have part of my principle protected, maybe plan to have certain amounts of yield or uncorrelated assets in my portfolio. So my view put is again, one, the fundamentals are there to not say exit the market, but two, this should not always be around should I buy this stock or that stock or should I go bonds or equities

00:44:44 [Speaker Changed] Has to be broader. It has

00:44:45 [Speaker Changed] To be, it has to be broader because, you know, we’re not a hedge fund and a lot of what we do is not about that. It is about driving long-term outcomes.

00:44:55 [Speaker Changed] So another quote of yours that caught my attention was noise is at all time highs. I totally agree, but explain your point of view.

00:45:05 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And I’ll explain it, I’ll explain it both in terms of kind of the, where we are in our markets and then also like, it’s also like a personal philosophy. One, this is what I mean by things look very calm, things look very constructive. Yet we can, I think my team at the time, and this was back in January, I think there were like 26 or 30 different like press releases or things that happened that kind of really jolted the markets in some way or caused concern. So the list of the things going on, whether it’s inflation, whether it’s political, you know, the fed policy changes, wars,

00:45:48 [Speaker Changed] The list.

00:45:49 [Speaker Changed] It’s endless. It’s endless. So there’s that I think is at an all time high of the things that, okay, what’s the list of what can go wrong? But then, you know, the other thing with noise, and I, I say this to my kids, I try to, I I’m still trying to master this, is that in most cases, 80% of what you hear is just noise, right?

00:46:06 [Speaker Changed] And already in stock prices

00:46:08 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, it’s there. It’s like 20% actually matters, right? You know, I, I said to be a good investor, you have to be good at knowing what you don’t know. But I also think you also have to be good at taking emotion off the table. You could see a lot, obviously we’re pretty divided country politically. I always say like, don’t bring that to your investing, right? So it’s more like, take the emotion out, don’t let the noise suck you in. Go back and it’s about the fundamentals. It’s about what’s in front of you. It’s about your outcomes.

00:46:36 [Speaker Changed] I love the concept of knowing what you don’t know. Let’s address that. What are investors not talking about? Not thinking about, but should what topics, assets, geography, policy, data points, whatever. What what is not at the forefront of many investors’ minds, but maybe is getting overlooked.

00:46:59 [Speaker Changed] You know, and again, I, this is gonna sound very simple and it’s been talked about since the beginning of our markets. You know, it’s true diversification. And again, it, it, it, it sounds simple, but it’s not because, you know, the old diversification is that 70, 30, 60 40 stocks, bonds, the, the markets are a lot more complex and sophisticated. That idea of having that conversation now around, let’s talk about what I’m trying to accomplish. Not, hey, I think large caps are hot now, so I’m gonna put you in them. Hey, you know, you see technology stocks, I think technology is gonna do really good. That to me is what’s really being overlooked is again, where I know a lot of people sit down with their advisors and they’re getting that academic, you know, dissertation on you should be diversified. This is why, this is how. But often the conversation falls right back to, is it large cap small caps, is it tech stocks, is it banks? Is it financials? Like that’s not the right conversation even is it alter Publix? It’s, it’s everything. It’s all of that. And it’s using technology and solutions and packages to create the right construct for individuals. Ma

00:48:13 [Speaker Changed] Makes a lot of sense to me. I only have you for a couple of more minutes, so let’s jump to our speed round. Our favorite questions we ask all our guests, starting with who were your mentors who helped shape your career?

00:48:26 [Speaker Changed] You know, I’ve, I’ve had so many, and I, and I’ll tell you, you know, they, they, they started with family members. I’ve had professors, I’ve had, you know, the dean of the business school at Manhattan College, I felt like was a mentor to me. I, I have my pre previous bosses I, that I still stay in touch with and try to have lunch and dinner with. So I have many people that I can, that I can kind of think,

00:48:51 [Speaker Changed] Huh, that’s very nice. Let’s talk about books. What are some of your favorites? What are you reading right now?

00:48:57 [Speaker Changed] You know, I, there’s a, I’m not a, I’m not a fiction guy, so most of what I read is nonfiction. I love all the,

00:49:02 [Speaker Changed] I’m, I’m the same way.

00:49:03 [Speaker Changed] I love all the, I love all the Michael Lewis’s books. Recently read The Boys in the Boat. So I, I just love the story about people and I love, I love reading about books that, you know, you see perseverance in human beings Right now. It’s, I I’ll tell you, I’m not reading anything right now. I’m getting ready to read something and I, and I’m wondering if it’s gonna stick, but I’ve been hearing a lot about the Meditations by Marcus Aurelius. Oh, sure. And I, I made the comment around 80% of the things you hear is noise. My understanding is that book has a lot about that in there of like, what you should really spend your time thinking about. So I was, I was, that’s synopsis and I’ve heard two people now mention it. So I say I’m, I’m getting ready to read that.

00:49:47 [Speaker Changed] Let me bastardize that for you. Okay. And say to what I took from that was recognize the what’s in your control and that’s what you focus on. What the Fed’s gonna do. We can’t control. Yeah. Don’t lose sleep over it. Yeah. Accept it. It’s gonna be what it’s gonna be, but focus on the things you can control. You can change really. It, it has absolutely stood the test of time. Yeah. And if you’re a Michael Lewis fan, I’m gonna, I’m gonna self-promote his most recent book that just came out, who is government. Yeah. We did a live Masters in business in April. And I wanna say the ratio of me speaking to him was probably 3% to 97% for 90 minutes. He just regaled the audience with stories and had people in stitches, absolutely hilarious stories about Billy Bean and, and Brad Pitt tears down people’s face. I’m,

00:50:42 [Speaker Changed] I’m gonna go listen to that. I find that to, I’m listening that to I’m gonna listen. Yeah, absolutely. I

00:50:46 [Speaker Changed] I, he, if you’re a Michael Lewis fan, I, I think I’ve interviewed him 10, 12 times. That’s my favorite interview. I I heard stories I never heard before. He was

00:50:55 [Speaker Changed] Great. His books, his books ruined all the movies that have come out off the, off of his books. ’cause they, they, none of them come close, in my opinion, to the actual books.

00:51:03 [Speaker Changed] So I’m, I agree with you. The one that’s closest is Moneyball is at least listen The Big Short, I love the book. The movie wasn’t bad, the Blind Side, the movie wasn’t bad, but Moneyball really captured the moment of the,

00:51:20 [Speaker Changed] I agree that Moneyball was probably the closest you got to the book. Yeah,

00:51:24 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. No, no doubt about that. What about streaming? What are you watching on Netflix or Amazon Prime, or what podcasts are you listening to?

00:51:32 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, you know, it’s, it is very similar to kind of the whole nonfiction thing. I, I’m a big fan of documentaries on, on Netflix. There’s two things that I’ll kind of do on streaming. It’s like, it is watching the men who Built America really, which is a great documentary. It just, again, it has, you know, the JP Morgans of the world, the car, the the car, the, the, the Carnegies of the world, Rockefellers and Vanderbilts. But what it shows you is that tremendous amount of risk that these individuals took and, and what was a very different time in America. But I love, I love the documentaries and then, and then shows what’ll happen is I don’t watch a lot of tv. I I’ll, I will watch sports, but I’ll hear things like Breaking Bad. Everyone talked about it. I was like, all of a sudden, I, you know, I’m watching it 10, 15 years after the fact. And then that led me to say, Hey, there’s this show, better Call Saul. So I just went through the whole, not just went, but you know, I’ve, I’ve been going through the, I went through Breaking Bad and then like, better Call Saul. And so the only way I watch shows now is, well, they came out five, seven years ago and now I’ll go in and be like, okay, I’ll, I’ll dig in.

00:52:37 [Speaker Changed] We, so I have two things for you. We saw Mad Men during the Pandemic. I never saw a single episode when it was on tv. I’m like, wow, this is amazing TV And if you are a documentary fan, the Billy Joel documentary, HBO saw Yeah. We’re, we’re like three quarters of the way through. It’s, it’s just amazing.

00:52:55 [Speaker Changed] And I’m a, I’m a big Billy Joel fan, and yeah, I thought it was, and again, I, it’s, to me it’s just it history and people, right. You just kind of just lear love learning about people. And then especially for me, it’s, I’m in awe of folk of people who could do things I can’t. Right. Like I’m in awe of a Billy Joel. When you hear about his process and what he does and you’re like, it’s, it’s amazing. It’s hard not to get inspired by that.

00:53:16 [Speaker Changed] No, abso a hundred percent. Our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in investing?

00:53:27 [Speaker Changed] You know, the, the advice I give everybody coming outta school and, you know, I, I think they’re waiting to hear for some kind of special nugget on how they’re gonna get ahead doing models or what deals. And I’m like, do do the easy things really well. Like I did this intuitively not knowing how important it was, which was, Hey, I came into Wall Street, you know, they’re not gonna give, I was fresh outta school. They weren’t gonna gimme a big client. They weren’t gonna gimme a big mile. But you know what, if someone said, I need copies, I ran and did copies because, you know, I could do that, that I can do, Hey, book, book a restaurant for a client dinner. Hey, don’t worry about it. I got it. So to me it’s like, early life is never gonna be that easy in your career than when you’re first outta school. Don’t come in day one thinking about, how do I get on, how do I start traveling and meet clients and work the big deals? It’s like, do the little things really, really well. That is how they’re gonna be able to judge you early on.

00:54:22 [Speaker Changed] Hmm. Good advice. And our final question, what do you know about the world of investing today? You wish you knew 35 or so years ago when you were first starting out?

00:54:33 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I think it goes back to the, when I start, I first started learning those lessons of don’t pay attention to the noise. Pay attention to what really matters. So, you know, earlier on, it’s hard not to get emotional about investing. Sometimes it’s a hard, even not to get completely kind of, you know, you p and i, and I watch for this in rps, like PMs can fall in love sometimes even with companies stocks and even management teams. Sure. That ability to now say, Hey, in all these cases, be objective. Tell, remind yourself, be good at knowing what you don’t know. Take emotion off, focus on what really should matter. Not all the noise that’s surrounding it. Huh.

00:55:12 [Speaker Changed] So, so interesting. Jose, thank you for being so generous with your time. We have been speaking with Jose Manaya. He’s global head of BNY investments and Wealth managing $2.2 trillion. If you enjoy this conversation, well be sure, check out any of the 550 we’ve done over the past 11 years. You can find those at Bloomberg, iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcast from. Be sure to check out my new book, how Not to invest the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth and how to avoid them. How not to invest at your favorite bookseller. I would be remiss if I did not thank the crack team that helps put these conversations together each week. And I really mean this. Alexis Noriega and Anna Luke are my producers. Sean Russo is my researcher. Sage Bauman is the head of podcasts at Bloomberg. I’m Barry Riol. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

~~~

 

 

 

 

The post Transcript: Jose Minaya, BNY Global Head of Investments and Wealth appeared first on The Big Picture.

Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk -

Altos reports that active single-family inventory increased 0.2% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 17.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 18.0%), and down 9.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.6%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of October 3rd, inventory was at 864 thousand (7-day average), compared to 863 thousand the prior week. 
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Samsung's Smart Fridge Turns Your Kitchen Into An Ad Billboard

Zero Hedge -

Samsung's Smart Fridge Turns Your Kitchen Into An Ad Billboard

Samsung Family Hub refrigerators are being transformed into a digital ad billboard right in your own kitchen with a new software update, according to a new report. Like it or not, owners of these premium models, priced between $1,700 and over $3,300, will now see ads on the refrigerator's front-facing monitor whenever it sits idle. 

Android Authority spoke with a Samsung spokesperson who confirmed that an over-the-air software update will serve as an ad pilot program on Family Hub refrigerators, adding that the ads will "offer promotions and curated advertisements" designed to "strengthen the everyday value" of its home appliances for customers.

Here is the full statement from the Samsung spokesperson about the new ad program:  

Samsung is committed to innovation and enhancing every day value for our home appliance customers. As part of our ongoing efforts to strengthen that value, we are conducting a pilot program to offer promotions and curated advertisements on certain Samsung Family Hub refrigerator models in the U.S. market.

As a part of this pilot program, Family Hub refrigerators in the U.S. will receive an over-the-network (OTN) software update with Terms of Service (T&C) and Privacy Notice (PN). Advertising will appear on certain Family Hub refrigerator Cover Screens. The Cover Screen appears when a Family Hub screen is idle. Ad design format may change depending on Family Hub personalization options for the Cover Screen, and advertising will not appear when Cover Screen displays Art Mode or picture albums.

Advertisements can be dismissed on the Cover Screens where ads are shown, meaning that specific ads will not appear again during the campaign period.

Here is Android Authority's first take on the ad infestation that Samsung is about to unleash in the kitchen: 

It's still unclear which exact refrigerators are getting the ad infestation, but Samsung's current Family Hub-equipped lineup in the US starts at $1,800 and goes all the way up to $3,500. It doesn't seem like users can entirely turn off ads, which is a shame. Disconnecting the fridge from the internet might stop the ads, but you will also inevitably lose out on several smart features you paid for. If you have a Samsung refrigerator with a door display, let us know in the comments how your experience has been with them, and how you feel about ads coming to them.

Let's hope that with the arrival of humanoid robots in homes - likely by the end of this decade or early 2030s - these bots don't become the ultimate ad trackers that bombard consumers with targeted ads on other devices inside their own homes. We suspect an incoming ad infestation is creeping into vehicle infotainment systems, which is why it might be wise to buy an old Mercedes diesel from the 1970s or 1980s, with cassette players and essentially no chips, to preserve some peace of mind ahead of the 2030s. Also, the feds can't remotely brick old cars.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 07:45

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My back-to-work morning train reads:

The War Between Silicon Valley and Hollywood is Officially Over… And the tech bros won Long before five years are up, Hollywood will have been acquired by Silicon Valley. The tech bros might maintain some of the old landmarks—the Hollywood sign will still stand, and those stars on the boulevard won’t go away—but this will all be as hollow as a movie set. (The Honest Broker)

How Do You Invest During a Bubble? You have four options when investing in a bubble:  (Wealth of Common Sense) see also This Is How the AI Bubble Will Pop: The AI infrastructure boom is the most important economic story in the world. But the numbers just don’t add up. (Derek Thompson)

How Useful Is AI in Institutional Investing Right Now? Artificial intelligence can make a major contribution by interpreting data, but it will not generate alpha on its own; human analysts remain better with ‘intangible’ information. (Chief Investment Officer)

Move Fast and Break Nothing: Waymo’s robotaxis are probably safer than ChatGPT. (The Atlantic)

A History of the New York Stock Exchange’s Ups and Downs: Periodic upheavals have been typically followed by stability and growth. (Wall Street Journal)

• The World’s Most Popular EVs Aren’t Cars, Trucks, or Motorcycles: The pandemic has helped transform the e-bike into a juggernaut (Spectrum IEEE)

Robots are learning to make human babies. Twenty have already been born. One in six adults experiences infertility. Can groundbreaking automation help answer their prayers? (Washington Post)

American Democracy Might Be Stronger Than Donald Trump: Yes, Donald Trump is a threat to democracy. But the country has a few attributes that make it more resilient than you might think. (Politico)

At Saudi Comedy Fest, American Free Speech Becomes the Punchline:  American comics used Saudi Arabia’s first global comedy festival to skewer a debate raging at home. Critics said the event was part of Saudi efforts to draw attention away from a political crackdown. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jose MinayaGlobal Head of BNY Investments and Wealth. He is also a member of BNY’s Executive Committee. Previously, he was CEO of Nuveen, the asset manager of TIAA; Jose previously served as Nuveen’s President and CIO

 

How Well Have Alts Perfornmed Relative to Equities?

Source: J.P. Morgan

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

CDC Says 98 People Sickened In Norovirus Outbreak On Royal Caribbean Ship

Zero Hedge -

CDC Says 98 People Sickened In Norovirus Outbreak On Royal Caribbean Ship

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An outbreak of norovirus sickened 98 people on a Royal Caribbean cruise ahead of its final destination in Miami, said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Sept. 30.

Royal Caribbean Cruises liner Serenade of the Sea leaves the access channel from Le Havre harbour, France, on May 8, 2019. Jean-Francois Monier/AFP via Getty Images

The outbreak on the cruise line’s Serenade of the Seas was reported to the health agency over the past weekend. Around 94 passengers onboard the ship reported being ill, along with four crew members.

More than 2,700 passengers and crew members are on board the ship, the CDC says. According to a cruise tracking service, the Serenade of the Seas departed San Diego on Sept. 19 and is slated to arrive in Miami on Thursday, as it made stops in Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.

The “causative agent” was listed by the CDC as norovirus, a group of viruses that can cause severe diarrhea and vomiting. The primary symptoms listed by the agency on the ongoing outbreak were vomiting and diarrhea.

In response to the norovirus outbreak, Royal Caribbean said that it will increase cleaning and disinfection procedures on board the ship, collect stool specimens for testing, isolate crew and passengers who have symptoms, and consult with the CDC on its procedures and reporting cases to the agency.

Responding to the CDC’s report, a spokesperson for the cruise operator told The Epoch Times on Thursday that “the health and safety of our guests, crew, and the communities we visit are our top priority,” adding that the company’s staff “implement rigorous cleaning procedures, many of which far exceed public health guidelines.”

So far in 2025, there have been 19 gastrointestinal outbreaks on cruise ships. Fourteen of those outbreaks were caused by norovirus, according to the CDC.

An outbreak of the virus in July also impacted Royal Caribbean line Navigator of the Seas, which sickened 141 people out of more than 5,100 passengers and crew, the agency said.

Health officials say that symptoms of norovirus include vomiting, diarrhea, and nausea. The virus also spreads easily through contaminated food or surfaces, or through close contact.

Symptoms of the virus generally start 12 to 48 hours after exposure, the Mayo Clinic says. Symptoms such as vomiting and diarrhea tend to last one to three days.

While most people recover without treatment, some people—such as older adults or young children—have to seek medical attention due to dehydration caused by vomiting and diarrhea, the clinic also says.

The CDC says that there are around 2,500 reported outbreaks of norovirus each year, and the virus usually spreads when infected individuals spread it to others via direct contact.

In a normal year, according to the CDC, norovirus causes between 19 million and 21 million cases of vomiting and diarrhea, 109,000 hospitalizations, and 900 deaths across the United States. The virus is associated with about 495,000 emergency department visits, mostly in younger children.

“Norovirus can be especially challenging to control on cruise ships because of the close living quarters, shared dining areas, and rapid turnover of passengers,” the agency says. When the ship docks, norovirus can be brought on board in contaminated food or water; or by passengers who were infected while ashore.”

Norovirus can also persist on surfaces for days or weeks and is resistant to many common disinfectants, officials say.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 06:30

The Uncertain Future Of UK Oil And Gas

Zero Hedge -

The Uncertain Future Of UK Oil And Gas

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

  • Labour is raising taxes and environmental standards on North Sea oil and gas while refusing to issue new licences, but insists hydrocarbons will remain part of the UK’s energy mix.

  • Wood Mackenzie research suggests up to 14 billion barrels of recoverable reserves may remain, far higher than regulator estimates, fuelling debate over future drilling.

  • The government is pushing for a just transition toward renewables while the Conservatives promise to remove net-zero requirements and maximise North Sea extraction.

Since the Labour Party came into office in the U.K. last year, many have wondered if oil and gas drilling will continue or whether we will witness an all-out shift to renewable energy. Prime Minister Kier Starmer has introduced stricter taxes on fossil fuel companies since coming into power, but has also said that oil and gas will continue as part of the energy mix for as long as it makes sense. So, as the investor environment in the U.K. North Seas becomes ever murkier, what can we expect?

In June, the U.K. government introduced stricter environmental regulations for fossil fuel companies with projects in the North Sea. Oil and gas firms must now account for the environmental impact of emissions from using or burning the fuels extracted. This follows a decision by a Scottish court earlier in the year, deeming the approval of Shell's Jackdaw and Equinor and Ithaca Energy’s Rosebank unlawful, meaning they required reassessment by the government.

While existing oil and gas projects can continue in the North Sea, albeit with companies paying higher taxes, the government has said it would not issue any new oil and gas licences, as it invests in a shift to green. This marks a distinct move away from the energy policy of the previous Conservative government, which strongly backed U.K. oil and gas operations. Oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea are taxed at around 78 percent, including the Energy Profits Levy introduced in 2022.

During his recent visit to the U.K., United States President Donald Trump discussed the country’s oil and gas potential. Trump said, “You have a great asset here, and we spoke about it: it’s called the North Sea.”

He added, “The North Sea oil is phenomenal… I want this country to do well, and you have great assets that you’re going to start using, I believe, under this Prime Minister,” addressing Starmer.

He said that his pro-fossil fuel agenda in the U.S. had helped drive down fuel prices and slowed inflation – even though fuel prices have actually risen since Trump came to office. 

In response, Starmer said that the Labour government plans to maintain a pragmatic approach to the country’s future energy mix, continuing to use North Sea oil and gas as required. He also emphasised the importance of reducing energy costs for consumers. Starmer said, “The mix will include oil and gas for many years to come from the North Sea – we’ve been clear about that for some time. But we also need to mix that with renewables, and it’s the mix that’s really important.” 

However, some believe that the government should be supporting U.K. oil and gas more strongly, as the North Sea still shows significant potential. The research company Wood Mackenzie recently estimated that there could be up to 14 billion barrels worth of recoverable oil and gas in existing North Sea fields, which is three times bigger than the four billion barrels estimated to remain by the U.K. regulator, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA). The analysis was AI-powered and assessed the “recovery rates” – the proportion of oil and gas that can be viably extracted from the fields.

The report stated, If UK fields were able to match recovery factors from analogous global fields, an additional 9 percent could be recovered. If best-in-class recovery factors were matched, an additional 18 percent of recovery could be added… These scenarios would potentially add seven and 14 billion barrels of additional production, respectively, over the lives of the 100 largest fields.”

In contrast to the Labour government, the Conservative opposition recently said that it would remove all net-zero requirements on oil and gas companies drilling in the North Sea if elected. The party leader, Kemi Badenoch, said the Party has a policy of “maximising extraction” to get “all our oil and gas out of the North Sea”. This policy is aimed at driving down consumer energy bills. However, previous failures from the former Conservative government to reduce household energy costs have made many wary of the Party’s promises.

The current U.K. government has introduced an array of energy policies and financial incentives in recent months to support a green transition and aims to achieve the net-zero target by 2050, which was written into law by then-Conservative leader Theresa May in 2019. The government believes that diversifying the energy mix will not only strengthen long-term energy security but will also, ultimately, drive down energy bills.

The focus for many now is a just transition. Many in the oil and gas industry are concerned about what a sudden withdrawal from the North Sea will mean for workers and communities in the region. The government now has the potential to use the new investor interest in the green energy sector to support a just transition and ensure people do not get left behind.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 05:00

How Europe's Cities Have Grown Since 1975

Zero Hedge -

How Europe's Cities Have Grown Since 1975

Europe’s cities have changed dramatically in size and shape since 1975. Urban areas across the continent have sprawled outward, merging into large corridors of continuous development. This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu, highlights the urban growth of major European cities, showing how population and settlement patterns have evolved.

The data for this map comes from World Population Review and Copernicus.

The Largest Urban Areas

Moscow leads as Europe’s most populous city, with over 12.7 million people projected by 2025. Paris follows closely with 11.3 million, while London ranks third with nearly 10 million. These cities have long histories of urban development and continue to expand, both in terms of area and density.

Southern Europe’s Urban Growth

Madrid and Barcelona have a combined urban population exceeding 12.5 million. Italian cities like Rome, Milan, and Naples also feature prominently, reflecting decades of steady growth tied to industry and migration.

Fast-Growing Second-Tier Cities

Several cities outside the traditional top three have seen striking increases in population since 1975. Madrid’s urban population nearly doubled from 3.9 million to 6.8 million, while Kyiv grew from 1.9 million to nearly 2.8 million. Birmingham saw the most dramatic percentage rise—from just 583,000 to over 2.7 million.

From Lisbon to Saint Petersburg, most of the featured cities experienced substantial population growth over the past five decades.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: European Countries With the Most Immigrants on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 04:15

Germany In Shock: Merz's Media Show Vs. Economic Collapse

Zero Hedge -

Germany In Shock: Merz's Media Show Vs. Economic Collapse

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The collapse of the German economy is now becoming visible even in the labor market. Yet instead of pushing for a political turnaround with deregulation measures and genuine relief, the federal government limits itself to empty rhetoric and media appearances. In Berlin, PR is mistaken for economic policy—propagandistic fragments are presented as proof of achievement.

It was a week of media presence for the Chancellor. Friedrich Merz staged visibility: speeches, press conferences, appearances on German Unity Day, and the first cabinet retreat at Villa Borsig. He even tackled the new swarms of drones—with emphatic rhetoric, as if these threats, according to panicked press reports, were undermining citizens’ trust in security and airspace control—and immediately called for border measures.

Had we not learned over the past decade that border control was impossible? Wasn’t this the mantra, particularly for the CDU, during the Merkel-era invasion crisis?

But never mind. It’s not just the borders crumbling due to political inaction and a lack of will to solve problems.

Rhetorically and Physically Present

Merz was omnipresent, rhetorically and physically. At the Unity Day ceremony in Saarbrücken, the Chancellor even attempted emotional bridges with the audience.

He invoked social cohesion, called for optimism and a “new beginning,” spoke of courage, initiative, and the challenges posed by autocracies, digitalization, and geopolitical change.

Germany, Merz said, stands in Autumn 2025 at a “decisive moment” in its history, a phase that may determine the nation’s future. Despite economic and security tensions, one must “look ahead with confidence and vigor” and strive for a “new unity” in the country. Citizens should not be paralyzed by fear but, like East Germans 35 years ago, dare their own new beginning.

What was meant as an appeal to the spirit of 1989 sounded more like empty morale-boosting slogans—subtle blame-shifting that puts the burden of the crisis on ordinary citizens.

Economically Bleak

The economic outlook is so grim that even Berlin’s normally insulated news bubble cannot entirely shield the Chancellor’s office from daily shocks in the German economy.

Mild Pressure, No Consequences

Fragments of criticism from Germany’s bureaucratic and union circles appear to have reached the Chancellor’s office. Industrial CEOs complain daily about ruinous energy costs. The grotesque regulations that strangle the country are conveniently ignored—they prevent the few innovative SMEs from becoming serious competition.

Yet when companies like Bosch cut 22,000 jobs, Mercedes scraps an electric vehicle project to return to combustion engines, and entire supply chains of basic industry vanish, political action is required.

But no one dares, even verbally, to strike at the root of this civilization-destroying policy—the green agenda shared by nearly all in Berlin, except the AfD. It embodies faith in centralized power in Brussels, paving the way for the “United States of Europe,” whatever its architects may envision.

Merz and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil—the true debt kings of our era—seriously believe that pumping a few hundred billion euros into failing projects will get the country moving again. An intellectual bankruptcy, and more: proof of structural delusion—ideological and intellectual.

Laughable “Reforms”

Merz’s response to deindustrialization and social crisis is surprisingly simple: a few media appearances, the “Made for Germany” coffee sessions, or announcing a “reform autumn” should suffice to prove the economy is turning around. It’s always the public’s bad mood, according to Merz—the eternal grumbler who simply doesn’t appreciate the hard work of policymakers.

In material terms, this government achieves nothing. In the distant future, companies might receive modest corporate tax relief—a few billion euros, laughable compared to a federal government budget of over €520 billion next year. A two-year temporary depreciation? A trivial gesture.

It is particularly cynical when the government celebrates simplified car registration or a new bureaucratic portal as groundbreaking deregulation while the administrative apparatus continues to consume billions unchecked.

For context: the ifo Institute estimates the direct and indirect costs of Germany’s bureaucracy at around €146 billion annually—over three percent of GDP.

In a country with a state share beyond 50%, this is nothing less than a confession of impotence: a document of inaction, overextension, or deliberate planning by the government—results unchanged.

Old Political Tales

Merz and Klingbeil repeat old political fables: bureaucracy will be reduced by €16 billion, eight percent of personnel cut. Believers may rejoice. Meanwhile, debates have already started about building new bureaucracies to manage the massive subsidy flows favoring green and military cronies in coming years.

Talk of deregulation is just a slogan, a hollow phrase, compulsively repeated by speechwriters. Reality: thousands of new positions at local and state levels, sold as “employment success.” Welcome to today’s political parallel universe.

It is telling that during this orchestrated week, neither the planned inheritance tax increase nor the end of spousal tax splitting proposed by Klingbeil were mentioned. All of this is media theater—distractions, smoke bombs—meant to suggest the problem has been recognized and addressed. In reality, it’s political simulation perfected to emptiness.

Actual Situation

The reality for the economy and citizens is very different. Merz allows the ever-increasing, grotesque CO₂ tax to pass without resistance—a bow to Brussels. Citizens feel the impact at the checkout as prices surge across daily essentials.

Meanwhile, municipalities respond to the green regulatory-induced economic crisis with tax hikes: the minimum business tax rate factor nationwide rises from 200 to 280 points—a costly measure that will eliminate thousands of jobs.

Since 2018, mismanaged policy has eliminated roughly 1.3 million private-sector jobs while the state created over 420,000 new public-sector positions—spinning the debt spiral ever faster.

A genuine reform would have broken this deadly cycle. It would have had the courage to finally address the migration crisis—rather than delaying debates over the migration-related citizens’ allowance through semantic smoke screens and political procrastination.

Nothing but Hot Air

Given the government’s disastrous record, one wonders: can’t they, won’t they, or aren’t they allowed? Whatever the reason for this political paralysis, Merz is the archetype of someone who simulates work with remarkable consistency—omnipresent, loud, center-stage—yet delivers nothing but hot air.

We know this game: the classic stalling tactic, backed by Berlin-Brussels consensus on the ideological agenda: social restructuring, centralized energy control, a monitored financial system, and the installation of a censored public sphere.

The media plays, channeling the 1990s, embodied by a Chancellor whose social media team reproduces tone, posture, and content from a past era, are proof. The Chancellor’s office believes it can regain air superiority over narratives and public opinion. Repeated messages, intensified public broadcaster propaganda, European censorship laws—all aimed to silence dissent and relegate serious opposition to “far-right conspiracy theories.”

In summary, this orchestrated week demonstrates once more how the political-media complex buys time by scattering sand into critics’ gears. Time to prepare the actual “reforms” underway elsewhere: a digital euro as a capital control, a UK-style digital ID, and accelerated wartime economic mobilization against an imminent Russian threat.

If this is the promised “autumn of reforms,” buckle up.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 03:30

Geopolitical Risk Rises Globally

Zero Hedge -

Geopolitical Risk Rises Globally

According to a newly released report by Aon, geopolitical volatility - together with AI-related issues - was the fastest-growing business risk in the world. 

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, geopolitical risk rose from rank 21 in 2023 to rank 9 in 2025 and, according to business leaders, is expected to climb further to rank 5 by 2028.

AI-related risks meanwhile were ranked 49th by the experts surveyed in 2023, before rising to rank 29 in 2025. They are projected to come in eighth in 2028.

 Geopolitical Risk Rises Globally | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Broken down by continents, Asia is to experience the biggest increase in geopolitical risk, with the indicator expected to rise from rank 11 to rank 4, above the global average, by 2028.

In Europe, geopolitical volatility is already hugely elevated in rank 6 of all business risk. This is still projected to further increase until 2028, according to experts, when geopolitical volatility is believed to become the third-biggest risk in Europe.

North America is expected to come in only slightly below the global average, while the situation is more relaxed in Latin America.

Overall, the biggest business risk in 2028 (as well as 2025) will continue to be cyber attacks and data breaches.

Other than between 2023 and 2025, 2028 will see more of a change in the top 3, with increasing competition moving up and replacing business interruption.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 02:45

Supplying Tomahawk Missiles To Ukraine Will Destroy US-Russia Relations, Putin Warns

Zero Hedge -

Supplying Tomahawk Missiles To Ukraine Will Destroy US-Russia Relations, Putin Warns

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that any Washington decision to supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory would irreparably damage Moscow's relations with Washington.

The warning comes less than two months after Putin met with President Donald Trump at a summit in Alaska, which sought de-escalation in Ukraine and was focused on improving bilateral relations. But now Putin is making clear that these relations could be destroyed, also at a moment the extension to the New START nuclear treaty has left some breathing room for nuclear negotiations.

"This will lead to the destruction of our relationship. Or at least the emerging positive trends in this relationship. So I'm saying what I think. And how things turn out depends not only on us," Putin said in a fresh interview with Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin, parts of which were widely published Sunday.

Image: US Navy

Given the Tomahawk missile has a range of at least 1,500 miles, it could potentially hit Moscow and offices of Kremlin leaders, unleashing the likelihood of runaway escalation toward WW3. This is basically what Moscow is now warning about.

Already the US has said it is assisting Kiev with long-range targeting, which has included daily drone warfare, sometimes reaching over 800 miles into Russia with strikes on energy facilities. Probably such intel-sharing had long been happening for years in the war.

Vice President J.D. Vance had last week indicated the US is looking into the European request to send Tomahawks, and the Kremlin has said it would be deeply surprised if the US took this step.

Still, Trump has voiced frustration with Putin, going so far as to call Russia a "paper tiger" for its inability to quickly and decisively defeat Ukraine.

Yet it should be remembered that Russia's actions are still only at the level of "Special Military Operation" and a full war mobilization has not been ordered.

Moscow has not revealed an intent to utterly destroy Kiev, and for the most part has not begun obliterating 'decision-making' centers, leaving open a chance for de-escalation.

Putin also last Thursday separately pointed out it was impossible to use Tomahawks without the direct participation of American specialists and thus any supply of these missiles to Ukraine would trigger a "qualitatively new stage of escalation."

"This will mean a completely new, qualitatively new stage of escalation, including in relations between Russia and the United States," Putin emphasized.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 02:00

Cracker Barrel Dumps Woke Agency Responsible For Logo Change Amid Exec Departure

Zero Hedge -

Cracker Barrel Dumps Woke Agency Responsible For Logo Change Amid Exec Departure

Cracker Barrel has fired the marketing agency responsible for its controversial woke logo design, which the company quickly backtracked on after public outcry. 

A Cracker Barrel sign featuring the old logo outside one of its restaurants in Florida City, Fla., on Aug. 27, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

In an Oct. 2 statement, the company said that it was ending its relationship with California-based strategic and creative growth consultancy, Prophet, which had advised them on brand refresh initiatives - including the recent logo and restaurant redesigns that did not go over well, to put it mildly. 

The company also accepted the resignation of SVP Laura Daily, who had been with the company since 2012. 

"We are grateful to Laura for her leadership, including being a driving force behind the growth of our retail business during her tenure, and thank Cammie for the meaningful contributions and impact she made through her nearly a decade at the Company," said CEO Julie Masino.

Masino - who gets to keep her job, announced the new logo on Aug. 19. The following day the company's market cap crashed by nearly $100 million. One week later, Cracker Barrel announced that it would return to the old logo. 

"We thank our guests for sharing your voices and love for Cracker Barrel. We said we would listen, and we have. Our new logo is going away, and our ‘Old Timer’ will remain," the company said in a statement. 

Other corporate shuffling includes the promotion of Doug Hisel - previously vice president (VP) of field operations, who is now the senior vice president (SVP) of store operations. He has been with the company for 18 years. 

Meanwhile, former employee Thomas Yun is rejoining the company as vice president for menu strategy and innovation. 

"These changes to our organizational structure, along with new leadership appointments and promotions, mark a strategic step forward as we sharpen our focus on consistently craveable food and warm country hospitality," said Masino. "This transition reduces layers in the organization as we bring a hyperfocus on ensuring both every plate served and every interaction with our guests reflects the care and quality we stand for."

Customers at a Cracker Barrel restaurant in Florida City, Fla., on Aug. 27, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

As the Epoch Times notes further, President Donald Trump had also called on Cracker Barrel to give up its new redesign. Trump welcomed the switchback in an Aug. 27 Truth Social post.

“Congratulations, Cracker Barrel, on changing your logo back to what it was,” he wrote. “All of your fans very much appreciate it. Good luck into the future. Make lots of money and, most importantly, make your customers happy again!”

Cracker Barrel announced its full fiscal year 2025 financial results on Sept. 17.

The company reported $3.48 billion in revenues for the year, up 0.4 percent from the previous fiscal year. Net income was up 13.3 percent, while earnings per share jumped 12.6 percent.

“Many elements of our plan are working well and delivering results, as evidenced by five consecutive quarters of comparable store restaurant sales increases and 9 percent adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2025,” Masino said. EBITDA refers to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

“Looking ahead, there is much to be optimistic about, and our teams are focused on getting back to the momentum we created last fiscal year.”

For fiscal year 2026, the company is expecting revenues in the range of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion. It projects opening two new Cracker Barrel stores and shutting down 14 Maple Street units. Cracker Barrel acquired biscuit company Maple Street in 2019.

*  *  * THIS is a knife...

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 23:33

Newsom Says Trump Is Sending 300 California National Guardsmen to Oregon

Zero Hedge -

Newsom Says Trump Is Sending 300 California National Guardsmen to Oregon

Submitted by Jacob Burg of  Epoch Times

Immigration protestors confront federal agents and California Army National Guardsmen in Los Angeles, on June 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump is sending 300 members of the California National Guard to Oregon after a judge temporarily blocked him from deploying the Beaver State’s guard to Portland, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Oct. 5. 

Newsom vowed to fight the move in court.

The White House on Oct. 5 did not immediately confirm the deployment. The California National Guard referred questions to the Department of War. A War Department spokesperson declined to comment.

In a statement posted to his website, Newsom called Trump’s mobilization of hundreds of California National Guardsmen to Oregon a “breathtaking abuse of the law and power.”

“The Trump Administration is unapologetically attacking the rule of law itself and putting into action their dangerous words—ignoring court orders and treating judges, even those appointed by the President himself, as political opponents,” Newsom said.

“The commander-in-chief is using the U.S. military as a political weapon against American citizens. We will take this fight to court, but the public cannot stay silent in the face of such reckless and authoritarian conduct by the President of the United States.”

Months ago, Trump federalized California’s National Guard over Newsom’s objection following protests in Los Angeles against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

A federal judge on Oct. 4 temporarily blocked Trump from deploying the Oregon National Guard to Portland in response to violent protests targeting immigration officers.

“This country has a longstanding and foundational tradition of resistance to government overreach, especially in the form of military intrusion into civil affairs,” Judge Karin J. Immergut, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon, wrote in her order.

“This historical tradition boils down to a simple proposition: this is a nation of Constitutional law, not martial law. Defendants have made a range of arguments that, if accepted, risk blurring the line between civil and military federal power—to the detriment of this nation.”

U.S. District Judge Michael Simon recused himself from the case when the Department of Justice filed papers with the court accusing Simon’s wife, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.), of publicly criticizing Trump’s plan.

Immergut was randomly assigned to the case after the recusal, a court clerk told Simon.

National Guard in Portland, Chicago

Portland’s ICE building has been the scene of nightly protests, and Trump described Portland as a “war zone” rife with crime and unrest. Trump also called Chicago a “war zone.”

Trump ultimately authorized the deployment of 300 Illinois National Guard troops on Oct. 4 to protect federal agents and assets in Chicago.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson confirmed the deployment in a statement to The Epoch Times.

“Amidst ongoing violent riots and lawlessness, that local leaders like Pritzker have refused to step in to quell, President Trump has authorized 300 national guardsmen to protect federal officers and assets,” she said. “President Trump will not turn a blind eye to the lawlessness plaguing American cities.”

Pritzker accused the Trump administration of attempting to escalate tensions amid ongoing clashes between protesters and federal officers in the Chicago area.

“It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a Governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will,” Pritzker wrote in an Oct. 4 statement. “They will pull hardworking Americans out of their regular jobs and away from their families all to participate in a manufactured performance—not a serious effort to protect public safety.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 22:51

Missouri Governor Authorizes National Guard To Assist ICE Operations

Zero Hedge -

Missouri Governor Authorizes National Guard To Assist ICE Operations

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe said on Sept. 30 that he has authorized the state’s National Guard troops to provide administrative and logistical support to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) law enforcement operations in the state.

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe delivers the State of the State address in Jefferson City, Mo., on Jan. 28, 2025. Jeff Roberson/AP Photo

The authorization came in response to a request from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to the Department of War (DOW), according to a statement released by the governor’s office.

It stated that National Guard troops will be authorized to assist with “administrative, clerical, and logistical duties,” such as data entry and case management at ICE processing facilities starting on Oct. 1.

They are authorized to assist ICE until Sept. 30, 2026, the governor’s office stated. Kehoe, a Republican, said that this support is intended to enable ICE personnel to focus on “core enforcement and security functions” across the state.

“Public safety, keeping Missourians safe, and upholding the rule of law is our administration’s top priority,” the governor said in the statement.

“The Missouri National Guard is uniquely equipped to provide this essential administrative support, and we are confident their contributions will be invaluable to immigration enforcement efforts.”

His office stated that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on July 25 authorized federal funding for members of the National Guard to provide support to DHS at ICE processing facilities through Title 32, which allows guard members to perform missions for the Army, Air Force, president, or war secretary with the permission of the governor.

Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, a Democrat, issued a statement denouncing the governor’s decision, saying that it would divert National Guard service members from their mission of protecting the public.

“Using the brave women and men of our National Guard as paper pushers and case managers at immigration facilities undermines their mission and the law, directs them away from the important storm-response and local public safety efforts Missourians care about, and marks another example of Missouri public policy operating for the interests of Washington elites rather than every day Missourians,” he stated.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) also condemned Kehoe’s move to authorize National Guard troops to assist with ICE operations amid the Trump administration’s ongoing immigration crackdown.

“With the backdrop of masked immigration agents breaking apart our families and communities, it is particularly concerning that the Governor is asking Guard members to voluntarily participate in this agenda,” Luz María Henríquez, executive director at the ACLU of Missouri, said in a statement.

Missouri’s authorization came just days after Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landy sent a letter to DOW on Sept. 29 requesting the deployment of 1,000 Louisiana National Guard troops to support law enforcement agencies.

The DHS also has asked the Pentagon and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker to allow the deployment of 100 military personnel to Illinois “for the protection of ICE personnel and facilities” after clashes erupted between protesters and federal agents outside an ICE processing facility in Broadview, Pritzker said.

Pritzker told reporters on Sept. 29 that he opposes the troop deployment.

Last week, President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, under Title 10, Section 12406 of the U.S. Code, in the wake of escalating clashes outside federal immigration facilities. In response, the state of Oregon filed a lawsuit on Sept. 28, alleging that Trump had exceeded his executive authority in ordering the deployment.

Trump has already deployed troops to Los Angeles and the District of Columbia, and he has threatened to send them to Baltimore,  New Orleans, and Memphis, Tennessee, as part of a broader fight against urban crime.

Tom Ozimek contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 22:10

Students Hold Walk-Out Protest Over California School Bathroom Policy

Zero Hedge -

Students Hold Walk-Out Protest Over California School Bathroom Policy

Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

About 60 students walked out of morning classes on Oct. 1 to protest their high school’s policy allowing male students who identify as transgender to use girls’ bathrooms, in Anaheim, California.

Eddie Ledesma, the brother of Lesley Ledesma (background wearing pink), speaks out against trans-identified males allowed to use the girls’ bathrooms at Esperanza High School in Anaheim, Calif. on Oct. 1, 2025. Courtesy California Family Council

Joining the students at a press conference at Esperanza High School, opponents of state polices allowing transgender-identifying males to compete in girls’ and women’s sports and use female bathrooms and locker rooms said it’s time for the Trump administration to follow through on its threats to withhold federal funding from schools accused of violating Title IX.

Sophia Lorey, outreach director at California Family Council and former college soccer athlete, told The Epoch Times the federal government “should start pulling and withholding federal funding, especially in states such as California that “continue to put girls in harm’s way.”

It’s time that these lawsuits start playing out,” Lorey said following the press conference.

Although many parents believe Title IX violations aren’t an issue if their children aren’t playing sports, she said, the walkout showed that all girls in high school who simply want to safely use the restroom are affected, Lorey said.

California lawmakers in 2013 passed Assembly Bill 1266, which allowed males who identify as transgender to use girls’ restrooms.

At the walkout—attended by about 35 female and 25 male students—Lorey accused state lawmakers of failing to protect girls.

“These students have taken it into their own hands to lead a student walkout, to stand strong and say they are not OK with boys in the girls’ restrooms,” she said.

The girls voiced concerns about a male student using the girls’ bathroom, and that it makes them feel uncomfortable and unsafe.

Lesley Ledesma, a junior student who led the walkout, said a transgender-identifying male has been using the girls’ restrooms. And, when she complained to the school administrators, she was told that if she felt uncomfortable sharing the bathroom with him, she could use the one in the nurse’s office instead.

“This felt like a slap in the face to me,” she said. “As a young woman who has used the girls’ bathroom my entire life, I was now being asked to step aside. It didn’t feel fair. It didn’t feel respectful. It felt like my concerns, and the concerns of other girls, were being overlooked.”

Sophie Lorey, a former college soccer player for Vanguard University in Costa Mesa, Calif., poses for a photo at the California State Capitol building in Sacramento, Calif., on Aug. 28, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Ledesma, who has attended Esperanza since her freshman year, said the incident stripped away the sense of safety she once felt at school.

Everyone deserves dignity,” she said. “But dignity cannot come at the cost of someone else’s sense of safety. We must find a solution that protects the rights and feelings of all students, not just some.”

Eddie Ledesma, her brother, said it’s hard to watch his sister struggle.

“I want her and all the other girls here to feel safe in a place [that] should be private,” he said. “This isn’t about hate. It’s about respect.”

Sonja Shaw, president of Chino Valley Unified, speaks at a press conference outside the California state Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., on Aug. 14, 2023. Courtesy of California Family Council

Sonja Shaw, Chino Valley Unified school board president and a parental rights advocate, said at the walkout that because gender ideology has been normalized to the point where girls are told to sacrifice their privacy, safety, and dignity to accommodate boys in restrooms, the fight to protect girls has become a nationwide effort.

“This isn’t progress. This is regression. This is hate on girls,” she said. “This is the hill that we will die on to protect our kids. We are done. We’re not playing these games.”

If California continues to push gender ideology in schools, the problem will only get worse, she said.

“We have allowed radicals and special interests to push this madness, and too many officials have stayed silent or defended policies that put children at risk.”

Shaw said via text message to The Epoch Times following the press conference that “it’s not just time to consider withholding federal funding, it’s already time to act.”

The governor, state legislators, California Interscholastic Federation, and “too many school boards,” she said, have made it very clear they’re not budging on this issue.

“Title IX was written to protect girls, not erase them,” Shaw said. “If schools and states refuse to comply with that, then federal funding should be pulled.”

President Donald Trump, joined by women athletes, signs the “Keeping Men out of Women’s Sports” executive order in the East Room at the White House on Feb. 5, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s executive orders recognize two sexes—male and female—and make it clear that only females belong in girls’ and women’s sports and in female bathrooms and locker rooms.

‘Sex’ is not a synonym for and does not include the concept of ‘gender identity,’” read Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government.”

“‘Gender identity’ reflects a fully internal and subjective sense of self, disconnected from biological reality and sex and existing on an infinite continuum, that does not provide a meaningful basis for identification and cannot be recognized as a replacement for sex.”

The president also signed an executive order titled “Keeping Men out of Women’s Sports” in February.

The two orders reversed Biden-era Title IX policies and reinstated regulations from Trump’s first term as president. The back-and-forth changes in regulations have led to legal disputes about Title IX interpretation and enforcement.

Pure, 5g per serving from GMP / FDA inspected facility with 3rd party testing

The Trump administration on Sept. 30 warned of legal action against the Minnesota Department of Education and the Minnesota State High School League for allegedly failing to comply with Title IX, which prohibits sex discrimination in federally funded educational programs.

In June, the U.S. Department of Education concluded its Title IX investigations into the California Department of Education and the California Interscholastic Federation for allegations of discrimination against women and girls on the basis of sex. In both cases, the California Department of Education and the Interscholastic Federation were found to be in violation, and Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said the Trump administration would “relentlessly enforce Title IX protections for women and girls.”

The California Department of Education has authority over California Interscholastic Federation, which oversees 1.8 million high school students and more than 750,000 student-athletes, according to the DOJ.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in Oakland, Calif., on July 11, 2024. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

In July, the Department of Justice (DOJ) launched a lawsuit against California, alleging the state’s laws promoting transgender athletes violate Title IX by depriving girls of equal athletic opportunities.

California is on the wrong side of the law and the wrong side of history,” U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said in a statement. “Women deserve dignity, respect, and an equal opportunity to compete on their own sports teams. The time for talk is over. California must comply with Title IX and end its civil rights violations against women.”

Tony Hoang, executive director of Equality California, an LGBT civil rights group, said in June that the federal education department’s findings were “a dangerous distortion of Title IX and a direct attack on transgender youth in California.”

“Let’s be clear: this isn’t about fairness in sports and never has been — it’s about a federal administration weaponizing civil rights laws to target transgender students and force California to comply with their hateful anti-transgender agenda,” Hoang wrote in a statement. “Transgender youth belong in our schools, on our teams, and in our communities — without apology and without exception.”

The governor’s office did not respond to an inquiry by publication time.

In his own podcast aired in March, Newsom told his guest, conservative commentator Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated last month at a college campus in Utah, that allowing men to compete in women’s sports is “deeply unfair.”

Democratic state Sen. Scott Wiener praised Newsom for his past efforts to defend and support people in the LGBT community and criticized the governor for the remark.

The governor has since discussed fairness in sports, while opposing federal attempts to roll back state laws and policies.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 21:00

Pages