Individual Economists

Who Killed Pride Month?

Zero Hedge -

Who Killed Pride Month?

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

As you may have noticed, celebrations of “pride” have been much more subdued this Pride Month than they were in recent memory. The parades this year are less conspicuous and bombastic. Corporate websites are less obnoxious and explicit. And perhaps most notably, triumphant in-store displays have disappeared almost entirely or, at the very least, are much smaller and more restrained than in past years.

According to some in the mainstream media, all of this moderation—or abandonment—of LGBT “pride” has the same root cause as all evils in contemporary America: Donald Trump. The president is so mean, so nasty, and so omnipotent that companies fear him and do whatever they can to avoid incurring his wrath, including, apparently, forsaking longstanding practices, affiliations, and beliefs:

Corporate America has fallen out of love with Pride Month... and it’s because of Donald Trump.

Businesses that used to smother their merchandise in rainbow flags for the month of June have dramatically scaled back this year, many wary of provoking an investigation by the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, Pride events across the US are facing budget shortfalls as corporate sponsors duck out.

Now, with all due respect to the president, the media, and the people cited in the above article (some of whom are very smart, in fact), the idea that Trump killed Pride Month is, well, kind of stupid. Not only is the notion thoroughly ahistorical, but it also gets the causative forces in American politics precisely backward.

For starters, it’s important to remember how and when the backlash against “pride” began in earnest.

Recall that on March 31, 2023, Bud Light was not only the most popular beer sold by the world’s largest brewing company but was also the most popular beer on the planet by sales. It was, inarguably, America’s—and the world’s—go-to beer. The following day, however, everything would change. Bud Light—and LGBT “Pride”—would consciously choose to self-immolate.

The next day, Alissa Gordon Heinerscheid, Bud Light’s young, smart, and talented vice president of marketing, launched her campaign to remake the brand and to bring it into the 21st century. She worried the beer she had been hired to keep at #1 was associated too closely with the common folk. She fretted about its history of “fratty and out-of-touch humor” and believed she had been tasked with making it more “inclusive…and lighter and brighter and different.”

As part of that more “inclusive” strategy, Heinerscheid and her team contracted with a young TikTok sensation named Dylan Mulvaney to promote the brand in a short video. And so, on that fateful day, April Fool’s Day 2023, Mulvaney, who is famously and flamboyantly transgender, uploaded a video in which he/she, dressed like Audrey Hepburn in “Breakfast at Tiffany’s,” sang the praises of the new, au courant Bud Light.

The rest, as they say, is history. Within a week, Bud Light’s sales tanked, the result of a conservative-led boycott of the brand. Within a month, it had lost precisely what it sought to protect, its vaunted status as the nation’s best-selling beer. By Independence Day, Bud Light was no longer even in the top 10 best-selling beers in America, having fallen all the way down to 14th place.

And then the real collapse began.

As sales of Bud Light fell, so did the sales of the brewer’s other brands. And so did AB InBev’s stock. From its high on April 6, the company’s share price fell more than 18%. Before the bleeding finally stopped in October, the share price had fallen by more than one-fifth.

Recall as well that two months after Bud Light’s disastrous fling with Dylan Mulvaney, Target Corporation, a longtime LGBTQ ally, launched its most aggressive Pride Month campaign ever, featuring children’s Pride displays, a “tuck”-friendly swimsuit for men who wished to hide their…uhhh…manhood, and designs from a UK brand that also produced “Satanic” designs.

Again, the backlash was swift and merciless. As with Bud Light, Target was the object of considerable online and cable news outrage. The company saw its sales fall dramatically in the face of a conservative-led boycott and, in time, saw its share price collapse as well. The nation’s “normies” had, once again, done what had never been done before and what was once thought impossible: they had organized and sustained a conservative boycott of a major corporation. They had been pushed too far by what they saw as aggressive corporate politicization, and they had successfully and spectacularly pushed back against it.

The truth of the matter is that Donald Trump didn’t have anything to do with the death of Pride Month. “Pride” killed itself, as it was destined eventually to do. It’s one of the Seven Deadly Sins for a reason, after all, namely because it is inherently self-destructive. “Pride,” as Proverbs famously puts it, “goes before disaster, and a haughty spirit before a fall.” And fall they did.

Ever since these twin retail disasters, American companies have been notably (and understandably) more circumspect about their efforts to promote politically divisive themes, especially LGBT Pride. Many corporations—with a push from conservative activist Robby Starbuck—ended their participation with and sponsorship of the Human Rights Campaign, the LGBT activist group that helped turn Pride Month into a national event and actively punishes companies it perceives as less than ideally supportive of its agenda.

And note that all of this—from the Bud Light debacle to the Target disaster to Robby Starbuck’s humiliation of the HRC—took place while Joe Biden was president and Donald Trump was a private citizen. Indeed, the first two took place before Trump had even secured a single convention delegate or Republican primary vote. In other words, the media can blame him all they want for the death of Pride Month, but the timing is off.

Additionally, and more to the point, the media—and countless others, including most Democratic elected officials—radically misunderstand how American politics works. Trump didn’t cause the cultural backlash that killed Pride Month. The cultural backlash that killed Pride Month also caused Trump. Or at least it caused his re-election.

In my nearly three decades as a macro-political analyst for large institutional investors, I have always insisted on the existence and relevance of one simple truth that defines American politics and its inevitable twists and turns: Washington is not where the biggest and most important decisions are made in this country. Those decisions are made in the states, cities, towns, school districts, churches, and families of the nation. Washington is merely where the score is kept.

Or, as Andrew Breitbart more pithily put it, “Politics is downstream from culture.”

Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016 because the American people rejected the foreign policy and cultural excesses of the Obama years. Likewise, Trump was re-elected in 2024 because the voters rejected Biden’s even more significant cultural excesses. Trump wasn’t elected to convince normies to dislike Pride, Pride Month, or “woke” more generally. He was elected because the normies had already come to loathe them all on their own.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 15:20

Leftist Senate Parliamentarian Cuts Immigration Enforcement, Other Items In GOP Megabill

Zero Hedge -

Leftist Senate Parliamentarian Cuts Immigration Enforcement, Other Items In GOP Megabill

Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough (D) has booted several major provisions from the Republican megabill to enact President Trump's agenda - including language which would authorize states to conduct border security and immigration enforcement (which are traditionally duties of the federal government). 

The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on May 22, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The reason - whatever's in the bill needs to adhere to the "Byrd Rule" - named for the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV-KKK Exalted Cyclops-Hillary Clinton's Mentor) - and which requires that bills passed via reconciliation (a two-stage legislative process that allows the majority party to pass legislation while avoiding a filibuster) must relate to the federal budget, government revenue, and the national debt. 

Another provision stripped out of the bill was the nonapplication of civil service protections for new federal employees - which would have reduced their pay if they didn't agree to be "at-will" employees. Civil service rules notably make it difficult to fire longtime federal employees, while the Trump administration has done just that through recommendations made through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), of probationary employees.

A third provision MacDonnough nixed would have applied a $350 fee for those filing a case with the Merit Systems Protection Board, which oversees appeals by terminated federal employees. 

A fourth provision would have included bonuses for agencies that cut costs (WTF). 

As the Epoch Times notes further, a measure to sell the U.S. Postal Service’s fleet of electric vehicles was deemed not germane.

Additionally, provisions that would have allowed the reorganization or elimination of federal agencies in addition to “prohibiting agencies from implementing, administering, or enforcing any rules with budgetary effects that are not explicitly required by statute” were ruled ineligible under reconciliation rules.

Judiciary provisions in the bill were also deemed out of order.

One included making sanctuary cities such as Chicago ineligible for federal funding, while another allowed local and state authorities to arrest people in the country illegally.

“There is no better way to define this Big Beautiful Betrayal of a bill than families lose, and billionaires win. Democrats are on the side of families and workers and are scrutinizing this bill piece by piece to ensure Republicans can’t use the reconciliation process to force their anti-worker policies on the American people,” said Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.).

The Byrd Rule is enshrined in law for a reason, and Democrats are making sure it is enforced.”

Republicans could overrule the parliamentarian, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has said that they will not do so.

One provision instituting a 10-year ban on states regulating artificial intelligence was ruled not to violate the Byrd Rule.

However, conservatives such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) have come out against this measure. She said she would not vote again for the bill if it had this provision.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 14:20

Victor Davis Hanson: Ten Iranian Questions

Zero Hedge -

Victor Davis Hanson: Ten Iranian Questions

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

1. What are we to make of Saturday night’s destruction of the three Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan?

Trump and the U.S. military took a great risk and succeeded in astounding fashion. Operationally, the destruction of the nuclear sites seems to have gone perfectly, in contrast to a long history of America’s Middle East debacles from the failed 1980 Carter rescue mission to the 2021 flight from Kabul.

The long-overdue message to Iran is that there are finally consequences for a half-century effort of killing Americans, promising death to the U.S. and Israel, and attempting to murder a U.S. president.

It’s also surreal to see leftist critics now say that Trump deviated from past presidents’ heroic, peaceful efforts to negotiate an end to the Iranian nuclear threat, when suddenly, after assuming office, Trump was apprised that Iran was weeks away from getting a bomb.

So, how did that happen after all those heroic diplomatic efforts? Why was the Iranian bomb program not ended during the Biden administration’s last four years? And who but Barack Obama opened the floodgates of Iranian revenue to fund these monstrous programs?

How strange the legal criticisms of the left are. In 2011, repeatedly bombing and killing hundreds of Libyan civilians and setting off a decade of chaos and mayhem were constitutionally okay, but a one-mission taking out a rogue nation’s nuclear facilities that threatened world peace and likely killed few, if any, civilians was unconstitutional and amoral?

Note well: Obama bombed, with B-2s no less, Libya again on his last full day in office in 2017—to finish off his disastrous five-year-long Susan Rice/Samantha Power/Hillary Clinton (“We came, we saw, he died”)/Ben Rhodes-directed destruction of Libya.

In the end, critics on the left and right are flummoxed and left sputtering only, “Iran cannot get a nuclear weapon”—even as every prior president had failed to slow Iran’s progression to a bomb—until Trump alone just did.

Intelligence-wise, it was quite stunning how there were no leaks but lots of successful misdirection and deceptions, such as redeploying the B-2s to Guam. It also made sense to strike early in Trump’s two-week window of warning, as otherwise, each day of quiet worked against the element of surprise.

It was not exactly rah-rah, Yanqui recklessness, but rather almost inevitable. Trump had warned the Iranians on numerous occasions. They never got the message. They were apparently listening to the American Left’s smears of Trump as a “TACO” (“Trump Always Chickens Out”)—a silly slur phrase that just died Saturday night.

The decision thus became whether the world wanted another North Korea in the Middle East or not. Even our enemies probably did not.

Trump has now given Iran the chance of a one-off attack and a return to negotiations—but over what, given that Iran now has nothing to negotiate with other than the survival of its regime?

Again, the fact that the operation was so complex and went apparently according to plan will impress allies and warn enemies—and make Iran worry that more of the same could come and be as effective.

2. But what happens now? Won’t Iran release its terrorist cells in the U.S., or attack U.S. bases nearby with missiles and drones, or unleash missiles at the Gulf oil fields, or mine the Straits of Hormuz, or unleash a new unforeseen volley of missiles at Israel?

Those scenarios are endless.

But this mission was not a 1991 or 2003 bombing as a preliminary to a ground invasion. Nor was it a pile-on 2011 Libyan bombing campaign designed for regime change. It had a limited agenda—the destruction of Iran’s nuclear fortresses—and it apparently succeeded. Iran would be wise to seek a ceasefire and negotiate for the regime’s survival. Pundits claim Iran must do something to restore its reputation. But the more it acts and fails, the greater its humiliation.

U.S. naval power will soon stop any Iranian naval attacks in the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran sends missiles into the Gulf oil fields, it will lose their own.

If they hit American bases, they will likely get a response quite unlike the aftermath lull of the killing of Gen. Soleimani. If they have a hidden massive missile arsenal to unleash on Israel, Israel will respond in kind.

What is unprecedented about the current tension is that the supposed powerhouse of the Middle East now has no defenses, no nuclear deterrent, and few terrorist operatives left in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, or Yemen. If they conduct terrorism in the United States, we would likely see mass deportations of thousands of Iranian green card or travel visa holders, and standoff missile and bombing retaliations against Iran.

Otherwise, Israel will continue to strike Iran, and the U.S. will likely pivot and offer to negotiate an end—unless it is attacked.

All wars end one way or another, usually when one side sees no chance of success. Iran may continue a Houthi-style missile exchange, but like them, it will eventually either sue for a truce or dissolve.

3. What will be the reaction of the Iranian street or the military?

Again, who knows?

Will the humiliation from the bombing force regime change? And would what follows be better, the same, or worse?

Theocracy is a much more dangerous government, given Iran’s size, wealth, and nuclear expertise, than those nations run by past bombed-out dictators like Gaddafi, Milosevic, the Taliban, and Saddam Hussein. And even their fates offer mixed messages as to what followed their forced demise. One could argue that what succeeded the jailed Milosevic was clearly better; the executed Saddam, eventually, maybe better; the murdered Gaddafi, likely no better and probably worse; and the Taliban simply returned to power, energized with $50 billion in U.S. munitions, vehicles, and military infrastructure.

The innate idea of bombing a nation with virtual impunity from the air, however justified, selective, or careful, often does not go down well with those on the receiving end.

But that said, the generals now know their superiors are being killed off by the Israelis, and would not wish to be next on the list. And they fear the military has just been further humiliated in the eyes of the public and revealed its impotence by losing this war.

The generals surely appreciate that the people not just resent perhaps $1 trillion over nearly fifty years invested in the greedy and now neutered Hamas, Hezbollah, the Assads, and the Houthis, as well as the vast subterranean nuclear facilities, and billions of dollars spent on missiles and air defense—but that it was all for nothing.

Those costs are aside from perhaps another $1 trillion lost needlessly over nearly half a century to sanctions and embargoes due to its ill-fated nuclear agenda and terrorism. Waste is one thing; waste and humiliation are another.

4. What was Trump doing by announcing a 1-14 day window to decide the use of force?

The value of talking about negotiations was fourfold:

a) to show the world Trump was not a trigger-happy interventionist, so if he did strike, he did so reluctantly, given the refusal of the mullahcracy to peacefully swear off enriching uranium;

b) to allow time for a final window for U.S. naval and air assets to assemble in the Gulf region or within striking distance of it;

c) to deceive Iran and the world into thinking he would attack in two weeks rather than two days, and to remind the world that his warnings are backed by consequences;

d) to see by chance if Israel could have solved the problem first—i.e., if it has any big surprises ranging from commando raids on nuclear facilities to the use of large cargo planes adapted to bunker-buster use. In the end, it apparently did not.

5. What is the attitude of the Arab Islamic world—specifically the proximate Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan—to the American elimination of the Iranian nuclear program?

Prior to the attack, the mindset of the so-called moderate Arab nations was predictable:

a) private communications to Iran’s Supreme Leader that they stand in solidarity with a fellow Islamic nation unduly attacked by the “Zionists”—something they claim they had nothing to do with and, of course, abhor;

b) mostly public silence, interspliced with sporadic calls for “negotiations,” “calm,” and “restraint,” punctuated with boilerplate criticism of Israel for its “preemption” and “aggression.”

c) frantic stealth communications with Trump and CentCom—and perhaps even Netanyahu—along the lines of something like, “If you all insist on doing this, please assure us that you don’t quit and leave a surviving Iran angry at our double-dealing. Guarantee to us that you will intervene and neuter or remove any vestiges of this rogue Iranian regime. Do not let this wounded animal lick its wounds and reemerge for revenge.”

And now postmortem?

d) The Arab world will be relieved, largely keep quiet other than a few protestations, but also insist that the U.S. protect the Gulf states from Iranian retaliation, and hope the U.S. can forge some sort of truce—but only if Iran is truly defanged.

6. After the attack, will the MAGA base splinter Trump’s support and help weaken his agenda before the midterms?

Not really.

Even Trump’s fiercest Iran critics, like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Steven Bannon, or milder ones, like Rand Paul, know that they agree with 80 percent of his MAGA agenda. Tucker Carlson said if Iran tried to kill Trump (they did and the Biden DOJ filed charges), he would advocate a (nuclear) bombing campaign against it.

Conservative critics understand that their opposition to a Trump intervention does not poll well with either MAGA or Republicans at large, but very well with the Squad and Bernie Sanders’ new Democrat Party.

So, there will be no third-party movement. No one leaves a movement when it agrees with the vast majority of its efforts and there is no viable alternative.

Realistically, critiques of Trump’s intervention always hinged on its success or failure. So far, the military operation seems a success. It is hard to envision methods by which Iran could sustain a war against enemies who have no desire to set one foot on its ground.

Often, success or failure arbitrates the level of criticism. For example, by late April 2003, sharp but opportunistic critics of Bush’s invasion of Iraq suddenly pivoted—as Saddam’s statue fell, with only light American casualties—to brag that they were neocon nation builders (e.g., MSNBC’s Chris Matthews: “We are all neocons now!”).

But by 2004, with the killings and insurgencies gaining ground, even Bush’s “Project for a New American Century” supporters now defected and whined that “our brilliant invasion was wrecked by your incompetent occupation.”

Human nature being what it is, most react predictably to success or failure. (Football teams 10-0 are sold out; those 2-8 can’t give away tickets.). So let us see how the current success ages in the next few months.

7. Will Russia or China put pressure on the U.S. to restrain Israel, intervene, or cause havoc?

No.

Russia? It is bleeding in Ukraine. It will privately not be unhappy that Iran will, for now, remain non-nuclear, but very happy any commotion in the Gulf could spike world oil prices and help Russia survive the embargo and refuel its aggression against Ukraine.

Trump will pay lip service to Putin so that he does not appear completely impotent after his forced departure from the Middle East.

And Putin will likely return to his 2017-21 appraisal that Trump is too volatile and unpredictable to gamble against.

China? It wants no upheaval anywhere near 50 percent of its imported oil. The idea that the U.S. could be distracted in the Middle East is seen by Beijing as desirable. Seeing Trump act quite successfully to take out a nuclear facility halfway across the world will likely sober President Xi.

8. How will Trump fare in the war?

Well, Iran, after all, likely tried to kill Trump and still brags about how it will destroy Israel and attack the U.S.—the same old boilerplate of the last half-century. Had the attack gone the way of past failed American efforts, Trump would have been in dire political trouble. But it did not, and so he will reap the advantages that accrue from success to a president.

Trump’s unpredictability so far has confused his enemies more than his allies. (Iran is probably flummoxed that no American president has ever bombed it, while post facto, no American president would ever be willing to talk to it during a war that it is losing.)

9. Will the image and profile of Israel in the Middle East change after the war?

It did after the euphoria of the brilliant 1967 Six-Day War victory, just as it slumped after being surprised by the Yom Kippur War of 1973 and the October 7 massacres.

But as of now, the very idea, say, in October 2023, that 21 months later Israel would have destroyed Hamas; damaged the Houthis; dismantled the supposedly indestructible Hezbollah; helped create the momentum to collapse the entire Assad dynasty in Syria; seen Russia mostly ostracized and absent from the Middle East; destroyed utterly Iran’s air defenses; and been flying at will, systematically blowing up Iranian command and control personnel, its nuclear architecture, and its once dreaded missile fleet—would have been considered so unlikely as to be sheer fantasy. And that is well aside from the U.S. destroying what was left of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

So, yes, Israel will likely emerge from this two-year nightmare with a much higher deterrent profile and respect.

Its chief danger will be hubris. Overconfidence led to the surprises of 1973. And hubris also led to 2023, 50 years later, to the very hour after being similarly shocked. Israel will likely be wary of its unprecedented success.

10. How did Iran lose its Shia crescent and its terrorist surrogates?

In truth, Iran was likely the most hated nation in the world. The Arab world despised it. Europe and the U.S. loathed it. Its bullying terrorism turned off even illiberal regimes. Anti-Islamic China and Russia found it useful, but otherwise, did not boast about their creepy partner.

So, Iran had zero goodwill anywhere. Thus, once it started bleeding, no patron appeared to help it in extremis. Even its partners may have been not unhappy that this loud bully received a comeuppance and may now be silently glad the U.S. ended its nuclear threat.

In realist terms, a hubristic, smug Iran winked and nodded that it had a hand on October 7. No one believed its later, scared, and phony disavowals. Militarily speaking, if it was ultimately behind the horror of October 7, it should have realized that Israel was not going to allow another Holocaust.

On October 8, 2023, Tehran had a choice to publicly abhor the killing and communicate to Israel its innocence or go for broke and help to coordinate massive and simultaneous missile strikes from the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iran in an all-out war.

Instead, each of these terrorist entities acted piecemeal, and Iran sat back and watched, hoping one might find success. Or worse, each was relieved when Israel attacked elsewhere one of their supposed allies.

Israel systematically checked off each terrorist entity, for the most part in a compartmentalized and separate fashion, before turning to Iran.

By that time, its surrogates were either defanged or harbored ill will that Tehran had led them on, but was nowhere to be found when they were held to account and crushed by Israel.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 14:00

Russia Ready To Help Iran, Says Has 'Every Right' To Nuclear Energy Program

Zero Hedge -

Russia Ready To Help Iran, Says Has 'Every Right' To Nuclear Energy Program

The Kremlin has announced Monday that Russia stands ready to help Iran in its ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States in the Middle East, based on specific requests.

Such assistance "all depends on what Iran needs," presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained, as quoted in TASS. "We have offered our mediation efforts. This is concrete. We have stated our position, which is also a very important form of support for the Iranian side."

"Going forward, everything will depend on what Iran needs at this moment," Peskov continued, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is currently in Moscow, preparing to meet with President Vladimir Putin.

"Just today, the Iranian Foreign Minister [Abbas Araghchi] will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where they will be able to exchange views in the wake of this traumatic escalation," Peskov stated. That's when he made clear, "And, in fact, the Iranian side will be able to inform us about its proposals and its vision of the current situation."

Via Associated Press

It is highly unlikely that Moscow would actually give any level of direct military assistance, but it could possibly come in the form of safety, containment, or logistical help at now damaged nuclear facilities, following American forces' weekend bombings of three key sites.

Earlier in the week, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that a 'number of countries' are now ready to supply Iran with 'their own nuclear warheads' - but this is typical of the former Russian president's hyperbole and bravado aimed at the West.

Also on Monday, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova explained Moscow's view that Iran has the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, like any other country.

In reference to something that US Vice President JD Vance previously said about Russia and China not wanting Iran to develop nuclear weapons, she said, "First, Russia and China do not want the United States to interfere in their internal affairs in any form. And anyone making statements on behalf of, but not on behalf of, our two countries would do well to start with this."

"For example, not to supply the Kyiv terrorist regime with deadly missiles, not to militarize Taiwan, etc. Secondly, Russia and China speak for themselves: the corresponding statements about the aggression of Israel and the United States were published by the Foreign Ministries of both countries," she continued.

"Thirdly, Russia and China believe that Iran (like any other country) can and should determine its own strategy for the development of nuclear energy in accordance with international law, in particular the NPT, and other states can also base their attitude towards this on an international legal basis."

And then, Zakharova said, "Fourthly, Iran created peaceful nuclear energy, which it has every right to do, and did not create nuclear weapons, which has been repeatedly confirmed by both Tehran itself and the IAEA."

Then a history lesson:

Fifth, a little history. Perhaps the very first time the idea of ​​a nuclear-weapon-free Middle East was voiced was in a statement by the Telegraph Agency of the Soviet Union, then the official voice of Moscow, on January 22, 1958: “The Near and Middle East should and can become a zone of peace where there are not and should not be nuclear and missile weapons, a zone of good neighborliness and friendly cooperation between states.” In 1974, the same Iran that is now under attack from Israel and the United States initiated a discussion of this topic at the UN General Assembly, which ended with the adoption of a resolution on the "Establishment of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East." 128 countries voted "for," including the Soviet Union and the United States. Israel abstained from voting. The USSR/Russia systematically advocated the creation of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East.

Iranian state media was quick to pick up these latest statements as Russia is standing with a regional ally with which it has had increased defense and trade ties, particularly since the start of the Ukraine war.

Ukraine and much of the West, meanwhile, see both Iran and North Korea as 'rogue states' who are helping fuel Putin's war against Ukraine, and these have come under ratcheting US-led sanctions alongside Moscow.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 13:40

Musk Wants Grok AI To "Rewrite The Entire Corpus Of Human Knowledge"

Zero Hedge -

Musk Wants Grok AI To "Rewrite The Entire Corpus Of Human Knowledge"

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via CoinTelegraph.com,

Elon Musk says his artificial intelligence company xAI will retrain its AI model, Grok, on a new knowledge base free of “garbage” and “uncorrected data” — by first using it to rewrite history. 

In an X post on Saturday, Musk said the upcoming Grok 3.5 model will have “advanced reasoning” and wanted it to be used “to rewrite the entire corpus of human knowledge, adding missing information and deleting errors.”

He said the model would then retrain on the new knowledge set, claiming there was “far too much garbage in any foundation model trained on uncorrected data.”

Source: Elon Musk 

Musk’s latest fight against “woke”

Musk has long claimed that rival AI models, such as ChatGPT from OpenAI, a firm he co-founded, are biased and omit information that is not politically correct.

For years, Musk has looked to shape products to be free from what he considers to be damaging political correctness and has aimed to make Grok what he calls “anti-woke.”

He also relaxed Twitter’s content and misinformation moderation when he took over in 2022, which saw the platform flooded with unchecked conspiracy theories, extremist content and fake news, some of which was spread by Musk himself.

Musk aimed to fight the tide of misinformation by implementing a “Community Notes” feature, allowing X users to debunk or add context to posts that show prominently under offending posts.

Criticism levelled at Grok’s retraining

Musk’s post attracted condemnation from his critics, including from Gary Marcus, an AI startup founder and New York University professor emeritus of neural science who compared the billionaire’s plan to a dystopia.

“Straight out of 1984,” Marcus wrote on X. ”You couldn’t get Grok to align with your own personal beliefs so you are going to rewrite history to make it conform to your views.”

Source: Gary Marcus

Bernardino Sassoli de’​ Bianchi, a University of Milan professor of logic and science philosophy, wrote on LinkedIn that he was “at a loss of words to comment on how dangerous” Musk’s plan is.

“When powerful billionaires treat history as malleable simply because outcomes don’t align with their beliefs, we’re no longer dealing with innovation — we’re facing narrative control,” he added. “Rewriting training data to match ideology is wrong on every conceivable level.”

Musk’s call for “facts” brings conspiracy theories, falsehoods

As part of his effort to overhaul Grok, Musk called on X users to share “divisive facts” to train the bot, specifying they should be “politically incorrect, but nonetheless factually true.”

The replies saw a variety of conspiracy theories and debunked extremist claims, including Holocaust distortion, debunked vaccine misinformation, racist pseudoscientific claims regarding intelligence and climate change denial.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 13:20

"Where's Jackie?": Why The Public Needs Answers On Biden's Alleged Incapacity

Zero Hedge -

"Where's Jackie?": Why The Public Needs Answers On Biden's Alleged Incapacity

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Jackie, are you here? Where’s Jackie?”

When then-President Joe Biden asked in September 2022 if House Rep. Jackie Walorski, an Indiana Republican who had died weeks earlier in a car accident, was in a meeting, observers were shocked. Biden had not only issued a statement of condolence; he had attended the  congresswoman’s memorial service to lower the flags at the White House in her honor.

As Washington Post media critic Erik Wemple noted last week, that moment should have been a wake-up call. In Washington parlance, it left no room for “plausible deniability” about whether Biden was still fit to hold the office of president. And it wasn’t just Democratic politicians who were willfully blind to Biden’s obvious deterioration; it was the media, too.

That’s why the country should fully support President Donald Trump’s June 4 order for his administration to investigate Biden’s competence and answer some of these questions, including the possible abuse of an autopen to sign legislation, pardons and other documents while he was president, instead of looking for political motivations.

Similarly, the Republican-led House Oversight Committee is also investigating.

The New York Times called it part of Trump’s “campaign of retribution against his perceived enemies” and “the latest effort by President Trump to stoke conspiracy theories about his predecessor.”

There is a weird dissonance when journalists blame Biden’s White House for a coverup, but then criticize efforts to investigate that coverup. While criminal charges are unlikely to stem from the investigation, if the White House autopen, for instance, was used without Biden’s consent, that would amount to forgery, obstruction of justice, fraud or other serious crimes.

The complicity of politicians, staff and even the press in deception is nothing new in Washington. A century ago, after President Woodrow Wilson experienced a severe stroke in September 1919, his wife, Edith, and his staff covered up the severity of his condition, which made him incapable of fulfilling his duties till the end of his term and affected the race for a Democratic successor. To end such abuses, we must demand accountability and greater transparency on matters of presidential health and competence.

The 25th Amendment of the Constitution was intended to address succession issues, including the incapacity of a president, but it is very difficult to remove a president without the support of the vice president and most of the Cabinet, meaning, little can be done without a virtual mutiny within the White House.

That is particularly true when staff have an interest in maintaining the illusion to keep the president and themselves in power. With Biden, according to the reporting in the book “Original Sin” by journalists Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, the staff regularly cut off the access of Cabinet secretaries on down to Biden, limited public events and scripted short remarks for the president to read from teleprompters.

Allegations that Biden’s staff misused the autopen are exceptionally difficult to prove, and Biden has issued a statement that he had full knowledge of everything that was signed.

Absent a confession of incapacity, we need someone Congress would need someone like John Dean, the White House counsel during the Nixon administration who was willing to break from the ranks and implicate his former associates. So far, there do not appear to be any Deans on the Biden staff, who are likely eager to avoid being implicated in potential improper use of the autopen or other actions that may have circumvented the president or covered up his decline.

But that doesn’t mean that the Trump administration and Congress shouldn’t be trying to get to the bottom of what happened. The worst thing for the American people would be a collective shrug and a resumption of business as usual.

In Washington, it is the cover-up that is often the basis for prosecution rather than the original crime.

The most likely path to success in such investigations is to get staffers to trip the wire in interviews by lying to or misleading investigators. Such false statements can be (and often are) criminally charged.

Such charges are then often used to wedge witnesses into cooperating with investigators in exchange for plea agreements. One cooperating witness can force a cascading failure for the defense as additional staff members are implicated and rush to make their own plea bargains. It is the Washington version of musical chairs: You do not want to be the last staffer without a plea to sit on.

Currently scheduled to testify before the House Oversight Committee in the coming weeks are Neera Tanden, the former director of Biden’s Domestic Policy Council; Anthony Bernal, Biden’s former assistant and senior advisor to the first lady; Ashley Williams, a former special assistant to Biden and deputy director of Oval Office operations; and Annie Tomasini, Biden’s former deputy chief of staff. Their statements might push divisions to the surface.

Biden was kept on a reduced schedule, allowing him to rally for single events. That is the difference between a major stroke and creeping cognitive decline. The 25th Amendment was designed for catastrophic medical events, not the slow slide to senility.

The result for the office can be largely the same, but the chances of detection are much lower. For now, the Biden scandal shows that very little has changed since the Wilson scandal. With a protective first lady, a lax White House physician and a cooperative staff, it is still possible to conceal the alleged incapacity of a commander in chief. That is why you might not have a “Weekend at Bernie’s“, but you can easily have a full term with Biden.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the best-selling author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 12:45

Power Blackout Hits Parts Of Queens, NYC: Con Edison Urges Energy Conservation As Temps Spike

Zero Hedge -

Power Blackout Hits Parts Of Queens, NYC: Con Edison Urges Energy Conservation As Temps Spike

Nearly 9,000 Consolidated Edison customers were without power Monday morning, with the majority of outages concentrated in Southeast Queens.

Con Edison blamed the blackout on the "heat wave affecting the region" and asked customers "to conserve energy while crews repair equipment."

The blackout zone—home to 166,000 customers—includes neighborhoods such as Jamaica, Laurelton, Cambria Heights, and Queens Village, bounded by Grand Central Parkway, Jamaica Bay, Nassau County, and the Van Wyck Expressway.

The latest data from the power tracking website Power Outage shows 8,830 outages across Queens

The utility asked customers in the impacted areas to avoid using "energy-intensive appliances such as washers, dryers, and microwaves until crews complete repairs" and "limit unnecessary use of air conditioning. If you have two air conditioners, use only one and set it to the highest comfortable temperature." 

The cause of the blackout has yet to be revealed by the utility. Still, the grid operator PJM Interconnection, the operator of the largest U.S. power grid serving 65 million people across 13 states and D.C., issued a "Maximum Generation Alert" for Monday, ordering all available power generation to run at full capacity to ensure power demand is met early this week amid rapidly tightening conditions.

In its 6–10 day temperature outlook map, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-average temperatures across much of the eastern half of the U.S. through the end of the month.

 

The National Weather Service has issued heat watches and warnings across much of the eastern U.S., with temperatures in the Washington–Baltimore–Philadelphia–New York City corridor expected to soar near 100°F early this week.

Latest weather reporting:

.  .  . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 12:25

JD Vance Says Don't Worry About New Forever War As President Trump Isn't 'Dumb'

Zero Hedge -

JD Vance Says Don't Worry About New Forever War As President Trump Isn't 'Dumb'

Vice President JD Vance on Sunday issued some surprisingly blunt comments in the wake of the US bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, saying that Americans who are opposed to another war in the Middle East shouldn’t worry because President Trump isn’t "dumb."

Vance in the NBC appearance defended President Trump's bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, done without congressional approval, at a moment where many prominent voices in the MAGA movement are pushing back, blasting Trump for breaking repeat campaign promises to not start new wars.

"I certainly empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East. I understand the concern, but the difference is, back then, we had dumb presidents, and now we have a president who actually knows how to accomplish America’s national security objectives," Vance said.

...So Vance is literally doing the "this time it's different" defense

Vance claimed the new US military engagement will not be a "long drawn out thing" as the Trump administration is insisting that it still wants negotiations with Iran, while also asserting that intelligence said the Iranians were 'weeks' away from a bomb.

The US, he said, is working to 'permanently' dismantle Iran's nuclear program, which it has long maintained is for peaceful nuclear energy, and is a matter of national sovereignty. Notably, Vance in speaking to NBC several times referenced Iran's "nuclear weapons program" - which contradicts all recent US intelligence assessments on the matter.

This is also why there's been tensions between Trump's team and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, though her latest statements seem to be hinting she is on board with Trump's current Iran policy.

As for negotiations, Tehran has said it won't negotiate while under direct military threat and attack by the US, and its leaders increasingly see this as tantamount to negotiating the end of their own regime. Iranian officials have also expressed that there's no way they can trust Washington, given that this weekend's major bombing raids took place precisely as Iran still thought it was in nuclear peace deal talks with the Trump administration.

While Trump is certainly not 'dumb' - the reality is that there's another, much more pressing problem - and that's the question of ongoing 'foreign influence' at the highest levels of the US government. 

And no, this is not the MSM's standard 'Kremlin influence' narrative. It is also not something the American people are left merely speculating about, as it is being stated quite openly, unashamedly, and even proudly...

WATCH: Trump's State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce says America is "the greatest country on earth, next to Israel"

This also as Trump is composing Truth Social messages about "MIGA": while the immediate context suggests he could be saying "Make Iran Great Again" in reference to regime change - or at least drastic 'reform' among Tehran leadership - it could also point to "Make Israel Great Again"... as many pundits are pointing out.

Returning to VP Vance's above statements suggesting this time it's different, we must ask the question while pointing to the below: is it really? 

Here's is Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu testifying before Congress in 2002 saying Saddam Hussein is building nuclear weapons:

“If you take out Saddam, Saddam’s regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region,” Netanyahu claimed. “And I think that people sitting right next door in Iran, young people, and many others, will say the time of such regimes, of such despots is gone.”

...And we all know how that went.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 12:10

JD Vance Says Don't Worry About New Forever War As President Trump Isn't 'Dumb'

Zero Hedge -

JD Vance Says Don't Worry About New Forever War As President Trump Isn't 'Dumb'

Vice President JD Vance on Sunday issued some surprisingly blunt comments in the wake of the US bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, saying that Americans who are opposed to another war in the Middle East shouldn’t worry because President Trump isn’t "dumb."

Vance in the NBC appearance defended President Trump's bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, done without congressional approval, at a moment where many prominent voices in the MAGA movement are pushing back, blasting Trump for breaking repeat campaign promises to not start new wars.

"I certainly empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East. I understand the concern, but the difference is, back then, we had dumb presidents, and now we have a president who actually knows how to accomplish America’s national security objectives," Vance said.

...So Vance is literally doing the "this time it's different" defense

Vance claimed the new US military engagement will not be a "long drawn out thing" as the Trump administration is insisting that it still wants negotiations with Iran, while also asserting that intelligence said the Iranians were 'weeks' away from a bomb.

The US, he said, is working to 'permanently' dismantle Iran's nuclear program, which it has long maintained is for peaceful nuclear energy, and is a matter of national sovereignty. Notably, Vance in speaking to NBC several times referenced Iran's "nuclear weapons program" - which contradicts all recent US intelligence assessments on the matter.

This is also why there's been tensions between Trump's team and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, though her latest statements seem to be hinting she is on board with Trump's current Iran policy.

As for negotiations, Tehran has said it won't negotiate while under direct military threat and attack by the US, and its leaders increasingly see this as tantamount to negotiating the end of their own regime. Iranian officials have also expressed that there's no way they can trust Washington, given that this weekend's major bombing raids took place precisely as Iran still thought it was in nuclear peace deal talks with the Trump administration.

While Trump is certainly not 'dumb' - the reality is that there's another, much more pressing problem - and that's the question of ongoing 'foreign influence' at the highest levels of the US government. 

And no, this is not the MSM's standard 'Kremlin influence' narrative. It is also not something the American people are left merely speculating about, as it is being stated quite openly, unashamedly, and even proudly...

WATCH: Trump's State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce says America is "the greatest country on earth, next to Israel"

This also as Trump is composing Truth Social messages about "MIGA": while the immediate context suggests he could be saying "Make Iran Great Again" in reference to regime change - or at least drastic 'reform' among Tehran leadership - it could also point to "Make Israel Great Again"... as many pundits are pointing out.

Returning to VP Vance's above statements suggesting this time it's different, we must ask the question while pointing to the below: is it really? 

Here's is Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu testifying before Congress in 2002 saying Saddam Hussein is building nuclear weapons:

“If you take out Saddam, Saddam’s regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region,” Netanyahu claimed. “And I think that people sitting right next door in Iran, young people, and many others, will say the time of such regimes, of such despots is gone.”

...And we all know how that went.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 12:10

Key Events This Week: GDP, Core PCE, Durables, Powell And Fed Speakers Galore

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Week: GDP, Core PCE, Durables, Powell And Fed Speakers Galore

There’s a lot going on this week but the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict will clearly dominate, especially now the US is involved. Against this backdrop, the NATO summit will be held in The Hague tomorrow and Wednesday. It seems all members will agree to a 5% of GDP defense spending plan apart from Spain who will get an exemption. The latest draft appears to be - what else - a delay of the full spending spree until 2035 rather than the initial 2032 that Secretary General Rutte was aiming towards (and which sparked the rabid move higher in European stocks at the start of the year which has all but fizzled now). Note 3.5% would be core military spending, and 1.5% would be defense related areas such as infrastructure and cybersecurity.

Elsewhere Fed's Chair Powell's semi-annual testimonies to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday are usually key events but note that this comes shortly after last week’s FOMC so maybe they’ll be less additive information this time. There is also lots of Fedspeak this week that will be in the day-by-day calendar but Waller speaking again today will be of note given his dovish speech on Friday where he all but confirmed that he was one of the two members who have three cuts this year in the dots. He didn’t rule out a July cut and markets are trying to handicap what it would mean if he became the next Fed chair. In a speech earlier today, Fed vice chair Michelle Bowman joined Waller in calling for a July rate cut, sending the dollar plunging. 

Staying in the US, the Senate will continue its mark-up of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) with potential for a vote by the end of the week. However, several substantial policy debates remain – namely, Medicaid, SALT cap reform and repeal of clean energy tax credits. Though many details remain in flux, from what our economists know at present, their expectations for 6.5 – 7.0% deficits as a share of GDP over the next three years has remained largely unchanged.

Outside of the big NATO meeting, China will hold its NPC Standing Committee meeting from tomorrow through to Friday. There will also be an EU-Canada summit today, with Canada's Prime Minister Carney attending. Finally, EU leaders will hold a summit in Brussels on Thursday/Friday.

In terms of the other highlights we have preliminary June PMIs, US existing home sales and Lagarde speaking today; US consumer confidence, the German Ifo and Canadian CPI tomorrow; US new home sales, Japanese PPI, Australia CPI and a 5yr UST auction on Wednesday; final US Q1 GDP, US durable goods, the Chicago Fed, the US trade balance, jobless claims, and a 7 yr UST auction on Thursday; and core US PCE, US personal spending/income, Chinese Industrial profits, Tokyo CPI, and French and Spanish CPI. There are more in the calendar at the end but of these the core US PCE is the most interesting.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 23

  • Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone preliminary June PMIs, US May existing home sales
  • Central banks: Fed's Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Williams and Kugler speak, ECB's President Lagarde and Nagel speak
  • Other: EU-Canada summit

Tuesday June 24

  • Data: US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index and business conditions, April FHFA house price index, Q1 current account balance, Germany June Ifo survey, Canada May CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Chair Powell testifies to the House Financial Services Committee, Fed's Hammack, Williams, Collins and Barr speak, ECB's President Lagarde, Guindos and Lane speak, BoE's Governor Bailey, Greene, Ramsden and Breeden speak
  • Earnings: FedEx, Carnival
  • Auctions: US 2-year Notes ($69bn)
  • Other: NATO summit through June 25, China's NPC Standing Committee meeting through June 27

Wednesday June 25

  • Data: US May new home sales, Japan May PPI services, France June consumer confidence, EU27 May new car registrations, Australia May CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Chair Powell testifies to the Senate Banking Committee, BoJ's summary of opinions from the June meeting, Tamura speaks, BoE's Lombardelli speaks
  • Earnings: Micron Technology
  • Auctions: US 2-year FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-year Notes ($70bn)

Thursday June 26

  • Data: US May durable goods orders, Chicago Fed national activity index, pending home sales, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Germany July GfK consumer confidence
  • Central banks: Fed's Barkin, Hammack and Barr speak, ECB's Schnabel and Guindos speak, BoE's Governor Bailey and Breeden speak
  • Earnings: Nike, H&M
  • Auctions: US 7-year Notes ($44bn)
  • Other: European Council in Brussels through June 27

Friday June 27

  • Data: US May PCE, personal income, personal spending, June Kansas City Fed services activity, China May industrial profits, Japan June Tokyo CPI, May jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, France June CPI, May PPI, consumer spending, Italy June consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, May PPI, April industrial sales, Eurozone June economic confidence, Canada April GDP
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams, Hammack and Cook speak, ECB's Rehn speaks

* * *

Finally, turning to the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods and advance goods trade balance reports on Thursday and the core PCE inflation report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell's semiannual Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Monday, June 23 

  • 03:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will give opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference. Speech text is expected. On June 20, Waller said, "I think we’ve got room to bring [the funds rate] down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation,” and that the FOMC “could [lower interest rates] as early as July.”
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, June preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 52.0); S&P Global US services PMI, June preliminary (consensus 52.9, last 53.7)
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, May (GS +1.5%, consensus -1.3%, last -0.5%)
  • 10:00 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference. Speech text and a webcast are expected.
  • 01:10 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. On June 3, Goolsbee said, "The answer to the question of where interest rates will go depends on what will happen in the next three months to the data on inflation and employment." He went on to say, "Personally, I’m a little gun shy about making the argument [that the inflation shock from tariffs will be transitory] before we know how big the shock is going to be."
  • 02:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) and Fed Governor Kugler speak: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will host a Fed Listens event at SUNY Schenectady Community College. On May 27, Williams said "You want to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent, and the way to do that is to respond relatively strongly." On June 5, Kugler said, "I see greater upside risks to inflation at this juncture and potential downside risks to employment and output growth down the road."

Tuesday, June 24 

  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, April (consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%)
  • 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, April (GS -0.2%, Consensus -0.2%, last -0.1%) 
  • 09:15 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak on monetary policy at the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025 in London. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, June (GS 100.6, consensus 99.8, last 98.0)
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Committee on Financial Services for the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Speech text and Q&A are expected. In his press conference following the June FOMC meeting, Powell reiterated that monetary policy is “in a good place” and acknowledged the favorable recent inflation news while making it clear that he still expects to see meaningful further tariff effects on consumer prices over the summer.
  • 12:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at an event organized by the Center for Economic Growth and NY CREATES in Albany, New York. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 02:00 PM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak at an event co-hosted by Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies and several Federal Reserve Banks. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 04:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will give welcoming remarks at a Fed Listens event. Speech text and a livestream are expected. 
  • 08:15 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will give a speech on the economic outlook at the 2025 Agricultural Summit. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 5, Schmid said, "While theory might suggest that monetary policy should look through a one-time increase in prices, I would be uncomfortable staking the Fed’s reputation and credibility on theory."

Wednesday, June 25 

  • 10:00 AM New home sales, May (GS -4.5%, consensus -6.7%, last +10.9%) 
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs for the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 

Thursday, June 26 

  • 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, May (GS -$85.0bn, consensus -$91.0bn, last -$87.0bn)
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, May preliminary (last +0.2%)
  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 third release (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.2%); Personal consumption, Q1 third release (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +1.2%); Core PCE inflation, Q1 third release (GS +3.42%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.4%): We estimate no revision on net to Q1 GDP growth, reflecting a downward revision to consumer spending (-0.2pp to +1.0%) due to softer utilities and personal home care details in the Quarterly Services Survey (QSS), an upward revision to business fixed investment (+0.1pp to +11.9%), and an upward revision to net exports.
  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, May preliminary (GS +15.0%, consensus +8.5%, last -6.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May preliminary (GS flat, consensus flat, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, May preliminary (GS -0.4%, consensus -0.4%, last -1.5%); Core capital goods shipments, May preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.1%): We estimate that durable goods orders jumped 15% in the preliminary May report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a sharp increase in commercial aircraft orders following President Trump’s visit to the Middle East. We forecast a 0.4% decline in core capital goods orders—reflecting contractionary new orders readings for manufacturing surveys in May—and a 0.2% decline in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the decline in orders over the last month.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 21 (GS 240k, consensus 245k, last 245k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 14 (consensus 1,945k, last 1,945k)
  • 08:45 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak on the economy during an event hosted by the New York Association for Business Economics. 
  • 09:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks at a conference focused on housing, workforce and economic development hosted by the Cleveland Fed in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and St. Louis. Speech text is expected. 
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, May (GS +2.5%, consensus flat, last -6.3%)
  • 01:15 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss how community development advances the Fed's objectives at a conference focused on housing, workforce and economic development hosted by the Cleveland Fed. Speech text, Q&A and a webcast are expected. 

Friday, June 27 

  • 07:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will serve as chair for a session featuring keynote remarks by Professor Carmen Reinhart at the Bank for International Settlements. 
  • 08:30 AM Personal income, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.8%); Personal spending, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%) ; Core PCE price index, May (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index (YoY), May (GS +2.63%, consensus +2.6%, last +2.5%); PCE price index, May (GS +0.14%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); PCE price index (YoY), May (GS +2.29%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.1%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, in May. We estimate the core PCE price index rose by 0.18% in May, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.63%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index to increase by 0.14% in May, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.29%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.13% increase in our trimmed core PCE measure (vs. 0.21% in April).
  • 09:15 AM Fed Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speak: Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a Fed Listens event at a conference focused on housing, workforce and economic development hosted by the Cleveland Fed in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and St. Louis. Q&A is expected. On June 3, Cook said, "As I consider the appropriate path of monetary policy, I will carefully consider how to balance our dual mandate, and I will take into account the fact that price stability is essential for achieving long periods of strong labor market conditions."
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June final (GS 60.7, consensus 60.3, last 60.5): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June final (GS 4.1%, last 4.1%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 12:00

Key Events This Week: GDP, Core PCE, Durables, Powell And Fed Speakers Galore

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Week: GDP, Core PCE, Durables, Powell And Fed Speakers Galore

There’s a lot going on this week but the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict will clearly dominate, especially now the US is involved. Against this backdrop, the NATO summit will be held in The Hague tomorrow and Wednesday. It seems all members will agree to a 5% of GDP defense spending plan apart from Spain who will get an exemption. The latest draft appears to be - what else - a delay of the full spending spree until 2035 rather than the initial 2032 that Secretary General Rutte was aiming towards (and which sparked the rabid move higher in European stocks at the start of the year which has all but fizzled now). Note 3.5% would be core military spending, and 1.5% would be defense related areas such as infrastructure and cybersecurity.

Elsewhere Fed's Chair Powell's semi-annual testimonies to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday are usually key events but note that this comes shortly after last week’s FOMC so maybe they’ll be less additive information this time. There is also lots of Fedspeak this week that will be in the day-by-day calendar but Waller speaking again today will be of note given his dovish speech on Friday where he all but confirmed that he was one of the two members who have three cuts this year in the dots. He didn’t rule out a July cut and markets are trying to handicap what it would mean if he became the next Fed chair. In a speech earlier today, Fed vice chair Michelle Bowman joined Waller in calling for a July rate cut, sending the dollar plunging. 

Staying in the US, the Senate will continue its mark-up of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) with potential for a vote by the end of the week. However, several substantial policy debates remain – namely, Medicaid, SALT cap reform and repeal of clean energy tax credits. Though many details remain in flux, from what our economists know at present, their expectations for 6.5 – 7.0% deficits as a share of GDP over the next three years has remained largely unchanged.

Outside of the big NATO meeting, China will hold its NPC Standing Committee meeting from tomorrow through to Friday. There will also be an EU-Canada summit today, with Canada's Prime Minister Carney attending. Finally, EU leaders will hold a summit in Brussels on Thursday/Friday.

In terms of the other highlights we have preliminary June PMIs, US existing home sales and Lagarde speaking today; US consumer confidence, the German Ifo and Canadian CPI tomorrow; US new home sales, Japanese PPI, Australia CPI and a 5yr UST auction on Wednesday; final US Q1 GDP, US durable goods, the Chicago Fed, the US trade balance, jobless claims, and a 7 yr UST auction on Thursday; and core US PCE, US personal spending/income, Chinese Industrial profits, Tokyo CPI, and French and Spanish CPI. There are more in the calendar at the end but of these the core US PCE is the most interesting.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 23

  • Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone preliminary June PMIs, US May existing home sales
  • Central banks: Fed's Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Williams and Kugler speak, ECB's President Lagarde and Nagel speak
  • Other: EU-Canada summit

Tuesday June 24

  • Data: US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index and business conditions, April FHFA house price index, Q1 current account balance, Germany June Ifo survey, Canada May CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Chair Powell testifies to the House Financial Services Committee, Fed's Hammack, Williams, Collins and Barr speak, ECB's President Lagarde, Guindos and Lane speak, BoE's Governor Bailey, Greene, Ramsden and Breeden speak
  • Earnings: FedEx, Carnival
  • Auctions: US 2-year Notes ($69bn)
  • Other: NATO summit through June 25, China's NPC Standing Committee meeting through June 27

Wednesday June 25

  • Data: US May new home sales, Japan May PPI services, France June consumer confidence, EU27 May new car registrations, Australia May CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Chair Powell testifies to the Senate Banking Committee, BoJ's summary of opinions from the June meeting, Tamura speaks, BoE's Lombardelli speaks
  • Earnings: Micron Technology
  • Auctions: US 2-year FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-year Notes ($70bn)

Thursday June 26

  • Data: US May durable goods orders, Chicago Fed national activity index, pending home sales, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Germany July GfK consumer confidence
  • Central banks: Fed's Barkin, Hammack and Barr speak, ECB's Schnabel and Guindos speak, BoE's Governor Bailey and Breeden speak
  • Earnings: Nike, H&M
  • Auctions: US 7-year Notes ($44bn)
  • Other: European Council in Brussels through June 27

Friday June 27

  • Data: US May PCE, personal income, personal spending, June Kansas City Fed services activity, China May industrial profits, Japan June Tokyo CPI, May jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, France June CPI, May PPI, consumer spending, Italy June consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, May PPI, April industrial sales, Eurozone June economic confidence, Canada April GDP
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams, Hammack and Cook speak, ECB's Rehn speaks

* * *

Finally, turning to the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods and advance goods trade balance reports on Thursday and the core PCE inflation report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell's semiannual Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Monday, June 23 

  • 03:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will give opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference. Speech text is expected. On June 20, Waller said, "I think we’ve got room to bring [the funds rate] down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation,” and that the FOMC “could [lower interest rates] as early as July.”
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, June preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 52.0); S&P Global US services PMI, June preliminary (consensus 52.9, last 53.7)
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, May (GS +1.5%, consensus -1.3%, last -0.5%)
  • 10:00 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference. Speech text and a webcast are expected.
  • 01:10 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. On June 3, Goolsbee said, "The answer to the question of where interest rates will go depends on what will happen in the next three months to the data on inflation and employment." He went on to say, "Personally, I’m a little gun shy about making the argument [that the inflation shock from tariffs will be transitory] before we know how big the shock is going to be."
  • 02:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) and Fed Governor Kugler speak: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will host a Fed Listens event at SUNY Schenectady Community College. On May 27, Williams said "You want to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent, and the way to do that is to respond relatively strongly." On June 5, Kugler said, "I see greater upside risks to inflation at this juncture and potential downside risks to employment and output growth down the road."

Tuesday, June 24 

  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, April (consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%)
  • 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, April (GS -0.2%, Consensus -0.2%, last -0.1%) 
  • 09:15 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak on monetary policy at the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025 in London. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, June (GS 100.6, consensus 99.8, last 98.0)
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Committee on Financial Services for the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Speech text and Q&A are expected. In his press conference following the June FOMC meeting, Powell reiterated that monetary policy is “in a good place” and acknowledged the favorable recent inflation news while making it clear that he still expects to see meaningful further tariff effects on consumer prices over the summer.
  • 12:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at an event organized by the Center for Economic Growth and NY CREATES in Albany, New York. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 02:00 PM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak at an event co-hosted by Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies and several Federal Reserve Banks. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 04:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will give welcoming remarks at a Fed Listens event. Speech text and a livestream are expected. 
  • 08:15 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will give a speech on the economic outlook at the 2025 Agricultural Summit. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 5, Schmid said, "While theory might suggest that monetary policy should look through a one-time increase in prices, I would be uncomfortable staking the Fed’s reputation and credibility on theory."

Wednesday, June 25 

  • 10:00 AM New home sales, May (GS -4.5%, consensus -6.7%, last +10.9%) 
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs for the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 

Thursday, June 26 

  • 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, May (GS -$85.0bn, consensus -$91.0bn, last -$87.0bn)
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, May preliminary (last +0.2%)
  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 third release (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.2%); Personal consumption, Q1 third release (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +1.2%); Core PCE inflation, Q1 third release (GS +3.42%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.4%): We estimate no revision on net to Q1 GDP growth, reflecting a downward revision to consumer spending (-0.2pp to +1.0%) due to softer utilities and personal home care details in the Quarterly Services Survey (QSS), an upward revision to business fixed investment (+0.1pp to +11.9%), and an upward revision to net exports.
  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, May preliminary (GS +15.0%, consensus +8.5%, last -6.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May preliminary (GS flat, consensus flat, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, May preliminary (GS -0.4%, consensus -0.4%, last -1.5%); Core capital goods shipments, May preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.1%): We estimate that durable goods orders jumped 15% in the preliminary May report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a sharp increase in commercial aircraft orders following President Trump’s visit to the Middle East. We forecast a 0.4% decline in core capital goods orders—reflecting contractionary new orders readings for manufacturing surveys in May—and a 0.2% decline in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the decline in orders over the last month.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 21 (GS 240k, consensus 245k, last 245k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 14 (consensus 1,945k, last 1,945k)
  • 08:45 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak on the economy during an event hosted by the New York Association for Business Economics. 
  • 09:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks at a conference focused on housing, workforce and economic development hosted by the Cleveland Fed in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and St. Louis. Speech text is expected. 
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, May (GS +2.5%, consensus flat, last -6.3%)
  • 01:15 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss how community development advances the Fed's objectives at a conference focused on housing, workforce and economic development hosted by the Cleveland Fed. Speech text, Q&A and a webcast are expected. 

Friday, June 27 

  • 07:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will serve as chair for a session featuring keynote remarks by Professor Carmen Reinhart at the Bank for International Settlements. 
  • 08:30 AM Personal income, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.8%); Personal spending, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%) ; Core PCE price index, May (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index (YoY), May (GS +2.63%, consensus +2.6%, last +2.5%); PCE price index, May (GS +0.14%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); PCE price index (YoY), May (GS +2.29%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.1%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, in May. We estimate the core PCE price index rose by 0.18% in May, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.63%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index to increase by 0.14% in May, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.29%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.13% increase in our trimmed core PCE measure (vs. 0.21% in April).
  • 09:15 AM Fed Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speak: Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a Fed Listens event at a conference focused on housing, workforce and economic development hosted by the Cleveland Fed in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and St. Louis. Q&A is expected. On June 3, Cook said, "As I consider the appropriate path of monetary policy, I will carefully consider how to balance our dual mandate, and I will take into account the fact that price stability is essential for achieving long periods of strong labor market conditions."
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June final (GS 60.7, consensus 60.3, last 60.5): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June final (GS 4.1%, last 4.1%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 12:00

Judge Orders 'Maryland Father' Kilmar Abrego Garcia's Release Before Trial

Zero Hedge -

Judge Orders 'Maryland Father' Kilmar Abrego Garcia's Release Before Trial

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

A federal judge in Tennessee plans to order the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the alleged MS-13 member whom mainstream media dubbed “Maryland man” after he was deported to El Salvador, while he awaits a federal trial on human smuggling charges.

But Abrego Garcia is not expected to go free because U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement will likely take him into custody and possibly try to deport him.

In a ruling on Sunday, U.S. Magistrate Judge Barbara Holmes denied the U.S. government’s motion to keep Abrego Garcia in detention before his trial. She scheduled a hearing for Wednesday to discuss the conditions of his release.

The U.S. government has already filed a motion to appeal the judge’s decision and is asking the judge to stay her impending release order.

Abrego Garcia pleaded not guilty on June 13 to smuggling charges, which stem from a 2022 traffic stop for speeding in Tennessee during which Abrego Garcia was driving a vehicle with nine passengers. While officers suspected possible smuggling, Abrego Garcia was allowed to go on his way with only a warning.

Body camera footage shows a calm exchange between officers and Abrego Garcia. The officers then discussed among themselves their suspicions of smuggling before letting him go. One of the officers says, “He’s hauling these people for money.” Another says Abrego Garcia had $1,400 in an envelope.

The federal indictment accuses Abrego Garcia of smuggling throughout the U.S. hundreds of people living in the country illegally, including children and members of the violent MS-13 gang.

Abrego Garcia was sent to an El Salvadorian supermax prison in March, in contravention of an immigration judge’s hold on his deportation.

He was returned to the U.S. earlier this month to face the human smuggling charges.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 11:45

Judge Orders 'Maryland Father' Kilmar Abrego Garcia's Release Before Trial

Zero Hedge -

Judge Orders 'Maryland Father' Kilmar Abrego Garcia's Release Before Trial

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

A federal judge in Tennessee plans to order the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the alleged MS-13 member whom mainstream media dubbed “Maryland man” after he was deported to El Salvador, while he awaits a federal trial on human smuggling charges.

But Abrego Garcia is not expected to go free because U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement will likely take him into custody and possibly try to deport him.

In a ruling on Sunday, U.S. Magistrate Judge Barbara Holmes denied the U.S. government’s motion to keep Abrego Garcia in detention before his trial. She scheduled a hearing for Wednesday to discuss the conditions of his release.

The U.S. government has already filed a motion to appeal the judge’s decision and is asking the judge to stay her impending release order.

Abrego Garcia pleaded not guilty on June 13 to smuggling charges, which stem from a 2022 traffic stop for speeding in Tennessee during which Abrego Garcia was driving a vehicle with nine passengers. While officers suspected possible smuggling, Abrego Garcia was allowed to go on his way with only a warning.

Body camera footage shows a calm exchange between officers and Abrego Garcia. The officers then discussed among themselves their suspicions of smuggling before letting him go. One of the officers says, “He’s hauling these people for money.” Another says Abrego Garcia had $1,400 in an envelope.

The federal indictment accuses Abrego Garcia of smuggling throughout the U.S. hundreds of people living in the country illegally, including children and members of the violent MS-13 gang.

Abrego Garcia was sent to an El Salvadorian supermax prison in March, in contravention of an immigration judge’s hold on his deportation.

He was returned to the U.S. earlier this month to face the human smuggling charges.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/23/2025 - 11:45

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