How Do Empires Fall?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Our Democray (I'm Sure)

"How do empires fall? Not by war, but by unbalanced minds disconnected from reality."

- The Vigilant Fox on “X"

By now, whenever you hear anyone invoke the phrase “saving our democracy,” that should be a signal that they are intent on destroying this republic, and with that, your natural rights to free speech, economic liberty, and public order.

What began in 2016 as a simple, high-level plot to take out Donald Trump and squash Trumpism — a grassroots revolt against those very high-level DC insiders —turned sharply in 2017 into a long-running cover-up operation that spawned a multiplying cycle of seditions, treasons, and betrayals of the public — as the insiders desperately tried to evade culpability for each previous act — and finally blossomed into a rolling coup with crypto-Jacobin overtones as the insiders’ useful idiots were recruited to run with the ball of color revolution.

For those who can’t quite wrap their minds around this game, a color revolution is the surreptitious overthrow of an elected government by concealed parties. Neocons in the US State Department developed the practice of color revolution on many countries over the years. Mr. Obama added a layer of gnostic Marxists to the personnel mix at State, and these wannabe revolutionaries built a fantastic matrix of NGOs outside State to marshal the useful idiots with jobs and salaries. The NGOs, in turn, were connected to international moneybags, with strange agendas of their own such as the megalomanic climate change crusader Bill Gates and George Soros’s Open Society Foundation, which funds anarchist district attorneys, the defense of election fraud, mass illegal migration, internet censorship, and money-flows into Antifa, the Left’s street fighters.

The motives of these players might appear murky, but at this point they can be boiled down to:

1) staying out of jail, and

2) retaining control of their empires.

Hillary Clinton, for instance, surely wants to stay out of jail for her RussiaGate caper, and retain the ill-gotten lucre of the Clinton Foundation she lives off. At 95, George Soros himself is probably beyond caring about all this, but his son Alex, 38, carries on, and recently cemented his alliance with the Clinton Foundation by marrying the former Mrs. Anthony Wiener, Huma Abedin, Hillary Clinton’s long-time wing-gal.

The Democratic Party plays an increasingly curious part in this rolling coup as all its efforts look evermore insane and self-extinguishing — the bootless government shutdown being the latest exercise. The party can no longer meaningfully represent organized labor — since labor moved to faraway lands — so it attempted to replace that earnest bond with fronting for women and minorities.

This has resulted in two problems:

1) women taking over the actual machinery of the party has transformed mere politics into never-ending psychodrama and boosted the amplitude of political dirty-fighting to dangerous new levels; and

2) cultivating minority groups has led to an orgy of race-and-gender hustles that amount to gigantic racketeering operations (i.e., making money dishonestly).

All of that sound, fury, and roguery is now dedicated only to staving off the party’s collapse and thwarting Mr. Trump’s attempt to restore something like regular order in public affairs, which the Democratic Party calls “authoritarianism.” Regular order is something that healthy male psychology takes an interest in, since it entails defense of the culture, in this case, Western Civ and its heritage. That implies the uses of strength as opposed to the stratagems of weakness. It must acknowledge and rely on classic virtues such as fortitude, prudence, and a preference for what is — as opposed to wishes and fantasies.

Psychodrama dispenses with all that for the sake of emotional gratification, often mis-characterized as empathy or caring. It can transform easily into sadism — as you can see now with the calls for violence and murder against Trump-adjacent persons. Meanwhile, be aware that the cries for “saving our democracy” come from the people opposed to regular order in elections, that is, voter ID, voting on election day only, with results reported out at day’s end, paper ballots and no electronic counting machines, and no mail-in ballots (except for people out of the country on election day). All of these stipulations are observed in other nations of Western Civ, and beyond, even in lands where people go about half-clothed.

The current psychodrama, of course, is the latest installment of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. The Democrats are flogging it with Wile E. Coyote zeal. I suspect it is an Acme booby trap for the ages and it is being carefully laid by Mr. Trump, the Roadrunner, to blow up un the Dems’ faces when all the documents are finally sorted out. Anyway, it has nothing to do with the real-world problems that the US faces, such as runaway financialization of the economy, a broken medical system, mass job layoffs, the collapse of education, surging mental illness, the drug plague, and the sinking middle-class.

We’re entering a new phase in the ongoing color revolution, the coup against America, and it’s liable to be the final phase in which all the mystery gets wrung out, the motives are revealed, and the players are correctly sorted and labeled according to their deeds.

No new psychodrama will avail to stop what’s coming.

*  *  *

Now live: JHK’s new novel, a comic romp set during the week of the tragic JFK Assassination, November 1963. Amusing excerpt from the book at this link.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 16:20

How Do Empires Fall?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Our Democray (I'm Sure)

"How do empires fall? Not by war, but by unbalanced minds disconnected from reality."

- The Vigilant Fox on “X"

By now, whenever you hear anyone invoke the phrase “saving our democracy,” that should be a signal that they are intent on destroying this republic, and with that, your natural rights to free speech, economic liberty, and public order.

What began in 2016 as a simple, high-level plot to take out Donald Trump and squash Trumpism — a grassroots revolt against those very high-level DC insiders —turned sharply in 2017 into a long-running cover-up operation that spawned a multiplying cycle of seditions, treasons, and betrayals of the public — as the insiders desperately tried to evade culpability for each previous act — and finally blossomed into a rolling coup with crypto-Jacobin overtones as the insiders’ useful idiots were recruited to run with the ball of color revolution.

For those who can’t quite wrap their minds around this game, a color revolution is the surreptitious overthrow of an elected government by concealed parties. Neocons in the US State Department developed the practice of color revolution on many countries over the years. Mr. Obama added a layer of gnostic Marxists to the personnel mix at State, and these wannabe revolutionaries built a fantastic matrix of NGOs outside State to marshal the useful idiots with jobs and salaries. The NGOs, in turn, were connected to international moneybags, with strange agendas of their own such as the megalomanic climate change crusader Bill Gates and George Soros’s Open Society Foundation, which funds anarchist district attorneys, the defense of election fraud, mass illegal migration, internet censorship, and money-flows into Antifa, the Left’s street fighters.

The motives of these players might appear murky, but at this point they can be boiled down to:

1) staying out of jail, and

2) retaining control of their empires.

Hillary Clinton, for instance, surely wants to stay out of jail for her RussiaGate caper, and retain the ill-gotten lucre of the Clinton Foundation she lives off. At 95, George Soros himself is probably beyond caring about all this, but his son Alex, 38, carries on, and recently cemented his alliance with the Clinton Foundation by marrying the former Mrs. Anthony Wiener, Huma Abedin, Hillary Clinton’s long-time wing-gal.

The Democratic Party plays an increasingly curious part in this rolling coup as all its efforts look evermore insane and self-extinguishing — the bootless government shutdown being the latest exercise. The party can no longer meaningfully represent organized labor — since labor moved to faraway lands — so it attempted to replace that earnest bond with fronting for women and minorities.

This has resulted in two problems:

1) women taking over the actual machinery of the party has transformed mere politics into never-ending psychodrama and boosted the amplitude of political dirty-fighting to dangerous new levels; and

2) cultivating minority groups has led to an orgy of race-and-gender hustles that amount to gigantic racketeering operations (i.e., making money dishonestly).

All of that sound, fury, and roguery is now dedicated only to staving off the party’s collapse and thwarting Mr. Trump’s attempt to restore something like regular order in public affairs, which the Democratic Party calls “authoritarianism.” Regular order is something that healthy male psychology takes an interest in, since it entails defense of the culture, in this case, Western Civ and its heritage. That implies the uses of strength as opposed to the stratagems of weakness. It must acknowledge and rely on classic virtues such as fortitude, prudence, and a preference for what is — as opposed to wishes and fantasies.

Psychodrama dispenses with all that for the sake of emotional gratification, often mis-characterized as empathy or caring. It can transform easily into sadism — as you can see now with the calls for violence and murder against Trump-adjacent persons. Meanwhile, be aware that the cries for “saving our democracy” come from the people opposed to regular order in elections, that is, voter ID, voting on election day only, with results reported out at day’s end, paper ballots and no electronic counting machines, and no mail-in ballots (except for people out of the country on election day). All of these stipulations are observed in other nations of Western Civ, and beyond, even in lands where people go about half-clothed.

The current psychodrama, of course, is the latest installment of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. The Democrats are flogging it with Wile E. Coyote zeal. I suspect it is an Acme booby trap for the ages and it is being carefully laid by Mr. Trump, the Roadrunner, to blow up un the Dems’ faces when all the documents are finally sorted out. Anyway, it has nothing to do with the real-world problems that the US faces, such as runaway financialization of the economy, a broken medical system, mass job layoffs, the collapse of education, surging mental illness, the drug plague, and the sinking middle-class.

We’re entering a new phase in the ongoing color revolution, the coup against America, and it’s liable to be the final phase in which all the mystery gets wrung out, the motives are revealed, and the players are correctly sorted and labeled according to their deeds.

No new psychodrama will avail to stop what’s coming.

*  *  *

Now live: JHK’s new novel, a comic romp set during the week of the tragic JFK Assassination, November 1963. Amusing excerpt from the book at this link.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 16:20

The Nerve! DNC Union Furious Over A Five-Day, In-Person Work-Week

Authored by Lincoln Brown via PJMedia.com,

I have been employed at one job or another since high school. My first “real” job was as a busboy in a department store restaurant. Times were tough, so I had to pick up a part-time job after school. I’d get home from school, put on a pair of black polyester pants and a white shirt, both of which reeked of cooked food, and go to work. I’d bus tables during the dinner shift, and during lunch and dinner on the weekends, and do my homework or, more often than not, watch a little MTV when my shift was over. 

Even after things got better for my family, I kept working because even as a teenage boy, I realized that money came in handy. As it turns out, girls appreciate a guy who can pay for dinner and a movie. And you can buy stuff like clothes. 

During my time in the workforce, there were two rules that I thought were pretty much givens.

Rule #1

If your employer schedules you for a shift or whatever it is you work, you show up on time and do what you’re told to do.

Rule #2

If you don’t like Rule #1, find another job. If you can.

That, apparently, is not SOP in the 21st century.

I submit to you the staffers at the Democratic National Committee.

They are currently affronted, insulted, traumatized, made to feel unsafe, victimized, and suffering from acute cases of out-of-joint noses and ruffled feathers because the DNC bosses told them that, henceforth, they would have to show up, in person, at their jobs for the entire five-day work week.

 As Col. Kurtz would say, “The horror. The horror.”

The Daily Caller reports that on Wednesday, DNC Chairman Ken Martin let the word go forth at a staff-wide meeting that as of February of next year, D.C. area employees would need to be back to work, full-time, at the DNC offices in Washington.

And the cries went up from both those who attended the meeting and those watching via Zoom. Citing the New York Times, the Caller said that “thumbs down emojis” began to flood the screen. The Employees International Union, which represents the DNC workers, said:

It was shocking to see the DNC chair disregard staff’s valid concerns on today’s team call.

DNC staff worked extremely hard to support historic wins for Democrats up and down the ballot last Tuesday, and this change feels especially callous considering the current economic conditions created by the Trump administration.

Oh, and the union also thinks that the decision is “callous.”  

This is hilarious.

DNC staffers are “shocked” at being expected to show up to work during a midterm campaign cycle

The best part is that they still get two full months before they actually have to get out of bed 5 days week

Is this a political committee or a daycare? https://t.co/Nsjb8Z4EpX pic.twitter.com/8Db7QD8ELd

— kiersten pels (@KierstenPels) November 13, 2025

One person groused that the party had won the 2020 presidential race with everyone working remotely, and that they should be allowed to work from home at least until 2028.

Of course, no one at the DNC wants to talk about 2024. Or maybe they do, which is why they are rounding everyone up and re-assigning cubicles or workspaces. Or whatever it is they use at the DNC. Maybe hammocks? Who knows?

Martin let the disgruntled team members know that if they felt they were not up to the task of working in person and showing up five days a week, they might want to spruce up their resumes and seek their fortunes elsewhere. And although I am no longer a Democrat, I would have to concur.

So the DNC staff members have until February, February, mind you, to find pants, shoes, a razor, and get a haircut and a shower before doing what millions of other Americans do every day. And they are still unhappy.

This, of course, is the end-product of letting people throw tantrums and make threats under the guise of feeling safe or living their truths. All I have to say to the DNC is you created this monster and now you get to live with it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 15:40

The Nerve! DNC Union Furious Over A Five-Day, In-Person Work-Week

Authored by Lincoln Brown via PJMedia.com,

I have been employed at one job or another since high school. My first “real” job was as a busboy in a department store restaurant. Times were tough, so I had to pick up a part-time job after school. I’d get home from school, put on a pair of black polyester pants and a white shirt, both of which reeked of cooked food, and go to work. I’d bus tables during the dinner shift, and during lunch and dinner on the weekends, and do my homework or, more often than not, watch a little MTV when my shift was over. 

Even after things got better for my family, I kept working because even as a teenage boy, I realized that money came in handy. As it turns out, girls appreciate a guy who can pay for dinner and a movie. And you can buy stuff like clothes. 

During my time in the workforce, there were two rules that I thought were pretty much givens.

Rule #1

If your employer schedules you for a shift or whatever it is you work, you show up on time and do what you’re told to do.

Rule #2

If you don’t like Rule #1, find another job. If you can.

That, apparently, is not SOP in the 21st century.

I submit to you the staffers at the Democratic National Committee.

They are currently affronted, insulted, traumatized, made to feel unsafe, victimized, and suffering from acute cases of out-of-joint noses and ruffled feathers because the DNC bosses told them that, henceforth, they would have to show up, in person, at their jobs for the entire five-day work week.

 As Col. Kurtz would say, “The horror. The horror.”

The Daily Caller reports that on Wednesday, DNC Chairman Ken Martin let the word go forth at a staff-wide meeting that as of February of next year, D.C. area employees would need to be back to work, full-time, at the DNC offices in Washington.

And the cries went up from both those who attended the meeting and those watching via Zoom. Citing the New York Times, the Caller said that “thumbs down emojis” began to flood the screen. The Employees International Union, which represents the DNC workers, said:

It was shocking to see the DNC chair disregard staff’s valid concerns on today’s team call.

DNC staff worked extremely hard to support historic wins for Democrats up and down the ballot last Tuesday, and this change feels especially callous considering the current economic conditions created by the Trump administration.

Oh, and the union also thinks that the decision is “callous.”  

This is hilarious.

DNC staffers are “shocked” at being expected to show up to work during a midterm campaign cycle

The best part is that they still get two full months before they actually have to get out of bed 5 days week

Is this a political committee or a daycare? https://t.co/Nsjb8Z4EpX pic.twitter.com/8Db7QD8ELd

— kiersten pels (@KierstenPels) November 13, 2025

One person groused that the party had won the 2020 presidential race with everyone working remotely, and that they should be allowed to work from home at least until 2028.

Of course, no one at the DNC wants to talk about 2024. Or maybe they do, which is why they are rounding everyone up and re-assigning cubicles or workspaces. Or whatever it is they use at the DNC. Maybe hammocks? Who knows?

Martin let the disgruntled team members know that if they felt they were not up to the task of working in person and showing up five days a week, they might want to spruce up their resumes and seek their fortunes elsewhere. And although I am no longer a Democrat, I would have to concur.

So the DNC staff members have until February, February, mind you, to find pants, shoes, a razor, and get a haircut and a shower before doing what millions of other Americans do every day. And they are still unhappy.

This, of course, is the end-product of letting people throw tantrums and make threats under the guise of feeling safe or living their truths. All I have to say to the DNC is you created this monster and now you get to live with it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 15:40

Trump Admin Rolls Back Biden-Era Restrictions On Alaska Oil And Gas Drilling

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration said Nov. 13 that it has finalized a rule rescinding Biden-era restrictions on oil and gas drilling in Alaska as part of efforts to strengthen U.S. energy security.

The new rule, to be published in the Federal Register on Nov. 17, will revoke the measures imposed by the Biden administration that restricted drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve on the North Slope, according to the Interior Department (DOI).

The petroleum reserve in Alaska, spanning roughly 23 million acres, was designated in 1923. Last year, the Biden administration restricted oil and gas drilling on over 13 million acres of the area for environmental reasons.

The DOI stated that it aims to restore drilling in the area to strengthen energy supply and reduce U.S. reliance on foreign sources, following President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that called for the expansion of natural resource development across federal and state lands in Alaska.

“By rescinding the 2024 rule, we are following the direction set by President Trump to unlock Alaska’s energy potential, create jobs for North Slope communities and strengthen American energy security,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a Nov. 13 statement.

“This action restores common-sense management and ensures responsible development benefits both Alaska and the nation.”

Voice of the Arctic Inupiat, a nonprofit representing North Slope communities in Alaska, said it supports the move, noting that it would help sustain power generation, education, and other services that rely on tax revenue from resource development infrastructure.

North Slope Borough Mayor Josiah Patkotak also voiced support, calling the move a “meaningful step toward restoring a federal process” that respects local leadership in Alaska.

“Good policy comes from good process, which requires hearing directly from the people who live, work, and hunt here,” Patkotak said in a statement issued by the nonprofit.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) opposed the move, claiming the DOI’s new rule disregards its obligation to protect the reserve.

“This rollback is nothing more than a giveaway to the oil and gas industry,” Bobby McEnaney, NRDC director of land conservation, said in a statement.

“Weakening protections is reckless, and it threatens to erase the very landscapes Congress sought to safeguard.”

This is not the first such Biden-era restriction that Trump has rolled back. Last month, the DOI announced that it would reopen the coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas leasing and reissued permits for the 211-mile Ambler Road Project, which would allow access to cooper and cobalt deposits in the area.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 15:00

Trump Admin Rolls Back Biden-Era Restrictions On Alaska Oil And Gas Drilling

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration said Nov. 13 that it has finalized a rule rescinding Biden-era restrictions on oil and gas drilling in Alaska as part of efforts to strengthen U.S. energy security.

The new rule, to be published in the Federal Register on Nov. 17, will revoke the measures imposed by the Biden administration that restricted drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve on the North Slope, according to the Interior Department (DOI).

The petroleum reserve in Alaska, spanning roughly 23 million acres, was designated in 1923. Last year, the Biden administration restricted oil and gas drilling on over 13 million acres of the area for environmental reasons.

The DOI stated that it aims to restore drilling in the area to strengthen energy supply and reduce U.S. reliance on foreign sources, following President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that called for the expansion of natural resource development across federal and state lands in Alaska.

“By rescinding the 2024 rule, we are following the direction set by President Trump to unlock Alaska’s energy potential, create jobs for North Slope communities and strengthen American energy security,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a Nov. 13 statement.

“This action restores common-sense management and ensures responsible development benefits both Alaska and the nation.”

Voice of the Arctic Inupiat, a nonprofit representing North Slope communities in Alaska, said it supports the move, noting that it would help sustain power generation, education, and other services that rely on tax revenue from resource development infrastructure.

North Slope Borough Mayor Josiah Patkotak also voiced support, calling the move a “meaningful step toward restoring a federal process” that respects local leadership in Alaska.

“Good policy comes from good process, which requires hearing directly from the people who live, work, and hunt here,” Patkotak said in a statement issued by the nonprofit.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) opposed the move, claiming the DOI’s new rule disregards its obligation to protect the reserve.

“This rollback is nothing more than a giveaway to the oil and gas industry,” Bobby McEnaney, NRDC director of land conservation, said in a statement.

“Weakening protections is reckless, and it threatens to erase the very landscapes Congress sought to safeguard.”

This is not the first such Biden-era restriction that Trump has rolled back. Last month, the DOI announced that it would reopen the coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas leasing and reissued permits for the 211-mile Ambler Road Project, which would allow access to cooper and cobalt deposits in the area.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 15:00

Democrats' Epstein Email Dump Backfires As Trump Sets DoJ On Clinton, Summers, Hoffman, Et Al.

Democratic political operatives initiated a coordinated propaganda attack centered on releasing Jeffrey Epstein's emails and promoting a range of narratives targeting President Trump, including claims that he and Epstein shared a Thanksgiving dinner in 2017. The Trump team has since responded, with the Department of Justice and the FBI set to begin investigations into "Epstein's involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, and Reid Hoffman."

Let's begin here: The email dump occurred on the same day Trump signed legislation ending the record-long government shutdown, a shutdown driven by the Democratic Party's decision to hold government funding hostage, triggering nationwide travel disruptions and SNAP funding outages.

This is a lie.

You're spreading Fake News to distract from the fact that you left 80,000 Illinoisians without a paycheck and nearly 2 million without food.

You're using the words of a dead pedophile to build your fake story.

You're sick. https://t.co/VYfpPvUk1w

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 14, 2025

pic.twitter.com/IY1c90RSFw

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 14, 2025

What's clear is that the Democratic Party staked heavily on the Jeffrey Epstein email narrative. Bloomberg data shows that headlines mentioning "Epstein" were minimal throughout the shutdown, but as soon as Trump signed the bill to reopen the government, putting Democrats in a very unfavorable position and creating terrible optics in the news cycle, their propaganda cannon was fired. 

Western Journal's C. Douglas Golden describes the Democratic Party's maneuvering to control the news cycle after the government shutdown's damaging optics, highlighting how they cherry-picked Epstein emails to redirect attention.

On Wednesday, Democrats on the House Oversight Committee released three of Epstein's emails, which mentioned President Donald Trump in some vague way.

They redacted the name of one of his victims, who is said to be Virginia Giuffre; now deceased, the woman at the center of the scandal involving the former Prince Andrew was formerly employed at Mar-a-Lago but had repeatedly avouched, during her life, that she never witnessed Trump at any events where misbehavior was going on.

Later on Wednesday, the GOP members of the Oversight Committee decided to call foul on the cherry-picking and released over 20,000 pages of documents that paint a fuller picture of what's long been known: Trump and Epstein knew each other and broke in the early 2000s. The unredacted documents also seem to confirm the redacted victim was Giuffre.

Democrats, of course, were not happy. But the party had a new theory: OK, maybe the person in the email consistently stated that Trump didn't do anything wrong, but what about the fact that Epstein said he spent Thanksgiving of 2017 with Trump?

In a post on X, they said that's exactly what the "[d]ocuments show," noting that, "At the time, Trump was already president, and Epstein was already a convicted sex offender."

. . .

And, as conservative operative Greg Price noted, it wasn't verified "because it's an easily disprovable lie and the attempts to connect President Trump to Epstein's crimes are a giant hoax."

. . .

The post has since been deleted, since the Democrats figured out the smoking gun turned out to be an exploding cigar. But the internet is forever, as is evidence of what Trump was doing on Thanksgiving in 2017:

One of the claims - now a deleted X post, the Democratic Party's official account stated, "NEW: Documents show Donald Trump spent Thanksgiving with Jeffrey Epstein in 2017. At the time, Trump was already president, and Epstein was already a convicted sex offender." 

Now deleted post. 

For very obvious reasons. 

What's clear is that the info war launched by Democrats was intended to paper over the terrible optics surrounding the government shutdown.

However, the pendulum is now swinging the other way... 

Trump has asked Bondi, DoJ, and FBI to investigate "investigate Jeffrey Epstein's involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman, J.P. Morgan, Chase, and many other people and institutions, to determine what was going on with them, and him." 

"Fatty at LinkedIn, Reid Hoffman" 

"This is another Russia, Russia, Russia Scam, with all arrows pointing to the Democrats," the president noted. 

It appears the Democratic Party's social media desk, likely staffed by inexperienced Gen-Z operatives, didn't bother to verify anything. However, competence was never the point; the objective was to plant a headline and let it do maximum damage before anyone could check the facts. That's the nature of information warfare. And now it looks like the Trump team is preparing to hit back.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 14:40

Economic Reacceleration: A Contrarian View

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Over the past two weeks, we’ve addressed a persistent question: if the data signals weakness, why hasn’t the recession arrived? In “Slowdown Signals: Are Leading Indicators Flashing Red?” we examined the cracks forming beneath the economy’s surface. From deteriorating leading indicators to credit stress and cooling employment metrics, the evidence supported a cautious stance. In the follow-up, “Promised Recession … So Where Is It?”, we explored the tension between these bearish signals and the market’s resilience. Economic risk has not disappeared, but the timeline for a downturn has stretched further than most expected.

Both articles’ tone was analytical but precise: the economy has not escaped danger. Leading economic indicators flash warning signs, from the Conference Board’s LEI to the ISM Manufacturing Index. Credit conditions remain tight with delinquencies on the rise, and employment trends, while stable on the surface, have started to weaken in rate-sensitive areas.

The consumer, long the backbone of the post-pandemic recovery, shows signs of fatigue. Excess savings have dwindled, credit card usage is climbing, and real wage gains have slowed. These are not signals of strength, but of late-cycle fragility.

Yet, despite these risks, the economy has not broken. The recession expected by most economists, strategists, and market commentators has yet to arrive. The S&P 500 continues to grind higher. Volatility remains muted. Consumer spending, while uneven, has not collapsed. And corporate earnings, though pressured in some sectors, have not cratered.

This divergence between bearish data and market behavior raises an important question: could the consensus be wrong? More specifically, what if the economy is not headed for contraction, but toward a renewed phase of expansion? That’s the contrarian view, an economic reacceleration, and it’s worth considering, not because it is guaranteed, but because few are prepared for it. In markets, surprises matter more than forecasts. If the surprise is upside growth, the implications for asset prices, portfolio strategy, and risk management could be substantial.

Let’s dig into it.

The Case for Economic Reacceleration

While consensus remains cautious, there is a case, however tenuous, for economic reacceleration. This isn’t about ignoring risks. It’s about acknowledging that conditions aligning could drive a shift from stagnation to renewed growth.

First, financial conditions have eased substantially since late last year. Despite the Fed maintaining higher policy rates, markets have pushed bond yields lower and credit spreads tighter. Equities have rallied, creating a wealth effect that supports consumption, at least within the top 10% of the population that owns 87% of the equity market. Furthermore, the top 40% of income earners currently account for 60% of total consumption.

Adding to that backdrop, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index has turned increasingly accommodative, suggesting that monetary policy’s grip on the economy is slipping. This eases the burden on consumers and businesses, setting the stage for renewed activity.

Third, fiscal support remains more robust than many acknowledge. Federal spending continues at a high level, with infrastructure outlays and industrial policy subsidies supporting investment in energy, manufacturing, and technology. These initiatives feed directly into corporate capital expenditures. The AI investment boom is a clear example of spending accelerating not just in “big tech,” but across the industrial supply chain. UBS has flagged this emerging capex cycle as a significant tailwind for mid-cycle expansion, which could offset a slowdown in consumer spending.

Fourth, labor market dynamics are more stable than the headlines suggest. While job openings have declined, layoffs remain low. Real disposable income has started to recover, supported by moderating inflation. This income stability allows consumers to maintain spending despite rising debt levels. Goldman Sachs has emphasized that consumption trends, particularly in services, remain strong enough to support growth in the near term. In the economically weighted ISM surveys, services (70% of the economy) are keeping the composite index in expansion territory.

Finally, there is the issue of data distortion. In recent months, significant revisions have been made to payrolls and GDP. Preliminary reports painted a picture of sharp deceleration, only for final data to show much more resilience. Goldman has warned that headline data may be underestimating actual activity. If that’s true, the economy may not need to rebound; it may already be stronger than it appears. We also see improvement in the Economic Composite Index, which comprises more than 100 data points, including manufacturing, services, leading indicators, and other economic factors.

Combined, these factors do not guarantee a reacceleration but offer a plausible case. They suggest the economy may be more resilient, supported, and responsive to easing conditions than the bearish narrative implies.

Supporting the Bull Market: Earnings and Valuation

If reacceleration gains traction, it becomes a fundamental driver of earnings growth. That’s the critical link. The equity rally has run ahead of fundamentals in some sectors. Valuations, particularly in technology and discretionary names, are stretched. Without earnings growth, they cannot be sustained. However, an economic reacceleration changes that dynamic. A pickup in nominal GDP would lift revenues. Stabilizing costs and improving operating leverage could support margins. As top-line growth returns, analysts would raise forward earnings estimates.

As UBS notes, they expect stronger earnings growth going into 2026, supported by stronger economic growth.

This path is especially relevant given the current market structure. Much of this year’s performance has been driven by a handful of mega-cap names; therefore, a broader earnings recovery, driven by an economic reacceleration, would allow the rally to widen. This is the theory, at least, and as breadth improves, volatility drops, and price-to-earnings multiples become more sustainable.

However, as we have noted previously, we had booming economic growth in 2020 and 2021, but the earnings growth remained confined to the largest companies. As shown in the chart above, earnings growth for the 493 remained weak. However, the expectation is that an improvement in economic growth, but not strong growth, will somehow allow the bottom 493 stocks to generate earnings growth as the Capex cycle for artificial intelligence engages. Maybe that is the case, but it remains a risk to investors. Nonetheless, the hope is that the economic reacceleration thesis, not a call for explosive expansion, will allow for durability in the current cycle, allowing the earnings tailwind to extend the bull market further than most expect.

Final Thoughts

For us, risk management remains essential. The case for economic reacceleration is certainly plausible, but it is also based on much “hope.” Hope that consumers will continue to consume at a strong pace, that AI Capex will offset declining savings risk, and that earnings will continue to sustain themselves well above long-term growth trends indefinitely to support current valuations. That seems to be a significant risk.

While there is certainly risk that “hopes” are disappointed, as investors, we must consider the possibility that an economic reacceleration comes to fruition. Such could leave overly defensive investors underexposed to equities, creating significant opportunity costs. Currently, many investors remain positioned for stagnation or slow deterioration. While that positioning aligns with the data, the yield curve, and historical patterns, the markets rarely reward consensus thinking. If reacceleration unfolds, it will catch many investors with an underweighted risk exposure.

Positioning for this shift does not require full conviction. But it does require readiness. Watch leading indicators for signs of stabilization. Monitor earnings revisions and forward guidance. Track credit spreads and yield curve behavior. These are the tells.

The opportunity lies in being early but not reckless. If growth is turning, earnings will follow, and earnings ultimately sustain bull markets.

Just something to consider.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 14:20

Noem Awards TSA Staff $10,000 Bonuses For Working During Shutdown

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem handed out $10,000 bonus checks on Nov. 13 to thousands of frontline Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers who stayed on the job during the federal government shutdown.

About 47,000 agents who worked through the 43-day shutdown despite not getting paychecks will be awarded a bonus along with back pay, according to Noem.

“We are going to not only continue their paychecks like they should have received all along, but also they’re going to get a bonus check for stepping up, taking on extra shifts, for showing up each and every day, for serving the American people,” Noem said at a news conference at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston.

The officers were thanked for taking seriously every day the mission of the Department of Homeland Security, “and that’s keeping the American people safe while they go and commute across the country, and while they do their work and business and take care of their families,” Noem added.

A couple of the officers were singled out for their “exemplary” service and for taking on more hours and shifts during the shutdown.

“They were examples to the rest of the individuals that worked with them, and endured those hardships and continued to shine a light on what is special about America,” Noem said.

Noem added that she would be looking at all TSA officials who worked during the shutdown and would recognize their efforts with a bonus check to get them back on their feet.

She noted that TSA agents who missed work or called out sick were not necessarily exempt from receiving the bonus, saying that “people were not just inconvenienced but they were also damaged and harmed” by the government shutdown.

“What I’m so proud of today … is the outstanding patriotism and service of our TSA officers and officials that stepped up every single day,” Noem said.

She also recognized the public and private companies that stepped up during the shutdown.

“We still saw the best of America,” she added. “We saw people come together, support each other, take care of each other, and go above and beyond to make sure the mission of the Department of Homeland Security was fulfilled.”

The department worked late Wednesday night to complete administrative paperwork to start paying TSA agents the backpay they earned during the shutdown, Noem added.

TSA Precheck entry at San Diego International Airport on Oct. 26, 2024. Jane Yang/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump Wednesday night signed a bill passed by Congress to fund the government until January, bringing an end to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

The Trump administration has implemented measures this year to help speed up TSA lanes in airports, including allowing passengers to leave their shoes on when going through the scanners.

The department also plans to implement veteran, military, and family lanes, according to Noem.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 13:40

Alibaba Falls After White House Memo Alleges Company Supports Chinese Military Targeting Of US

Shares of Alibaba fell in New York around 1 p.m. EST after the Financial Times reported a White House national-security memo detailing newly declassified intelligence alleging the Chinese tech giant has been providing technological support to the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the military of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Republic of China (PRC).

*WHITE HOUSE MEMO SAYS ALIBABA HELPS CHINA MILITARY TARGET US:FT

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 14, 2025

The memo claims that Alibaba provides the PLA and PRC with access to customer data, including IP addresses, Wi-Fi information, payment records, and various AI-related services. It also alleges that employees transferred knowledge about zero-day vulnerabilities (software flaws that hackers can exploit) to the PLA.

Alibaba strongly denied the report, saying:

"The claims purportedly based on US intelligence that was leaked by your source are complete nonsense. This is plainly an attempt to manipulate public opinion and malign Alibaba."

Shares of BABA are down 2.3%.

The White House memo was drafted immediately after the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea last month, during which both leaders agreed to a temporary truce on trade restrictions. 

A US official confirmed to FT that the administration is actively working to mitigate risks posed by intrusions involving untrusted vendors. 

We can only wonder whether this posturing by the administration has anything to do with PRC state-sponsored hackers infiltrating U.S. telecommunications companies in an attack known as "Salt Typhoon" …

*Developing...

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 13:16

Iran's Elite IRGC Seizes Tanker In Strait Of Hormuz

After a long period of relative quiet, the Strait of Hormuz is flaring up again as on Friday Iranian forces are reported to have seized a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker.

This is a first in a long time, but the Iranians are saying it is a somewhat 'routine' instance of intercepting a ship for "smuggling fuel", according to state IRNA. The Iranians are now claiming to be acting within the laws of the Islamic Republic.

Illustrative: Getty Images

But it was clearly an international vessel, with a US official and a private maritime risk group saying it was forcibly diverted into Iranian territorial waters as it made its way through the narrow strait.

International reports have identified the tanker as the Talara, en route from Ajman in the United Arab Emirates to Singapore when it was intercepted.

Further, British maritime risk firm Vanguard has described that the vessel was seized by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - which typically oversees such aggressive Iranian naval operations related to foreign vessels - and redirected toward Iranian waters.

Reports further say that three boats were observed approaching the Talara. Further AP reports that "A U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton drone had been circling above the area where the Talara was for hours on Friday observing the seizure," according to flight-tracking data.

Lloyd's List has written, "The vessel is owned by the Greece-based Coronis Family Group of Companies. The company has not responded to requests for comment."

⭕️ Iran apprehended the Marshall Islands–flagged crude oil tanker "Talara" whilst transiting the Gulf of Oman on a voyage from the UAE to Singapore.

The 73,371 dwt has since been redirected to the Iranian coastline. The ship is owned by Cyprus-based Pasha Finance. pic.twitter.com/uVXAALf2Er

— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) November 14, 2025

The publication says, "Maritime security firm Ambrey issued a warning, saying that a Marshall Islands-flagged crude oil tanker that had previously been approached by three small boats while transiting southbound through the Strait of Hormuz was observed making a sudden course deviation at the same location."

Tensions have long been on edge in the region as Tehran has vowed retaliation for the prior June 12-day war, which saw Israel mount a surprise attack and the US bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 13:00

The post The New York Times Lies for Trump: Who Needs Fox News? appeared first on CEPR.

Boeing Union Workers Approve New Contract, Ending 3-Month Strike

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

Thousands of Midwestern machinists who assemble military aircraft voted on Nov. 13 to accept a new contract with Boeing, bringing to an end three months of industrial action.

The workforce had been on strike since Aug. 4 over demands for better wages and work schedules.

District 837 of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) represents 3,200 machinists at facilities in St. Louis and St. Charles, Missouri, and Mascoutah, Illinois. Its members build and maintain the F-15, F/A-18, and advanced missile and defense systems for the U.S. military, according to the union.

In a statement, IAM District 837 thanked its bargaining committee for its efforts to negotiate a deal acceptable to members.

“We appreciate the unwavering support of our members, their families, the St. Louis community, our labor allies, and elected officials throughout this fight,” IAM District 837 said. “We’re proud of what our members have fought for together and are ready to get back to building the world’s most advanced military aircraft.”

Boeing confirmed in a statement that IAM 837 had ratified the new contract.

“We look forward to having our full team back at work,” Boeing said. “IAM 837-represented employees at all St. Louis-region sites are to report to work beginning with third shift on Nov. 16 at 11 p.m.”

Throughout negotiations, IAM District 837 had been calling for Boeing to agree to higher retirement plan contributions, stronger wage increases to keep up with inflation, and a larger ratification bonus, a one-time payment offered to union members after they vote to approve a new contract.

On Nov. 10, Boeing revised the proposed ratification bonus, increasing it from $3,000 to $6,000, but dropped the $1,000 annual retention bonus, which would have been paid yearly for four years. The rest of the offer was largely unchanged from earlier versions, which had been rejected by the union.

On Nov. 4, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) wrote to Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, urging the company to “negotiate in good faith” and “quickly reach an agreement that the IAM 837 machinists can afford to accept.”

Hawley congratulated the workers in a Nov. 13 post on X.

“Congratulations to the 3000+ Missouri workers who today secured a new and better contract with Boeing,” Hawley said. “For months they have stood strong, and today they’re getting the raise they and their families deserve.”

Christy Williams greets people at the voting check-in table, where International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union members picked up their ballot to vote on a negotiated tentative labor agreement that would end their strike against Boeing Defense St. Louis regional operations. in Maryland Heights, Mo., on Sept. 12, 2025. David Carson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP

Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) said in a statement that he was “glad to see IAM District 837 and Boeing reach a fair agreement that gets our highly skilled workers back on the job.”

“These workers deserve wages and benefits that reflect the true value of their work, and this agreement is a major victory for them, their families, and the entire St. Louis region,” Bell said. “Boeing has long been a cornerstone of our region’s economic success, and that success has always depended on the talent and dedication of its workforce.”

F-15EX Delivery Delays

The strike by about 3,200 machinists at facilities in the Greater St. Louis area was smaller in scale than last year’s action by workers at Boeing’s commercial airplane division in Washington and Oregon, which saw 33,000 machinists walk out.

While smaller in scale, the action had an impact on the deliveries of F-15EX fighters to the U.S. Air Force.

Ahead of an Oct. 9 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing for the nomination of Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach as the Air Force’s chief of staff, the four-star general said in submitted comments that delivery of the second lot of aircraft for the F-15EX program is “delayed due to the ongoing Boeing strikes with six of 12 F-15EX delivered to date.”

“These delays will impact F-15EX operations at Portland [Air National Guard Base],” as well as initial delays to deliveries of the third lot of aircraft overseas in 2026, said Wilsbach, who has since been confirmed and sworn in as 24th Air Force chief of staff. “While later than initially planned, aircraft deliveries and program milestone dates remain within the program’s acquisition baseline.”

Next-Generation Fighter Craft

On March 21, President Donald Trump announced that Boeing had been awarded the $20 billion contract to build the U.S. Air Force’s next-generation stealth fighter jet, designated the F-47.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said on Sept. 22 that the first of the craft should be ready to fly by 2028.

An artist rendering of the Air Force’s sixth-generation fighter, the F-47. Courtesy of the U.S. Air Force

The F-47—previously known as the Next-Generation Air Dominance platform—is envisioned to replace the F-22 Raptor as the centerpiece of the United States’ future air superiority fleet.

The program was briefly paused under the Biden administration but was revived under Trump.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 12:20

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Third Quarter of 2025

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.99 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate was up 6 basis points from the second quarter of 2025 and up 7 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the third quarter rose by 3 basis points to 0.20 percent.

“Mortgage delinquencies increased in third quarter of 2025, led by worsening FHA loan performance,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Since this time last year, the FHA seriously delinquent rate – which includes 90+ day delinquencies and loans in foreclosure – increased by almost 50 basis points. In contrast, the conventional and VA seriously delinquent rates remained relatively flat.”

Added Walsh, “The stressors on FHA homeowners include a softer labor market, other personal debt obligations, and increases in taxes, homeowners’ insurance and other fees that exacerbate already stretched affordability. Additionally, home price declines in some parts of the country may lessen the ability to sell or refinance.”

Walsh also noted that while the third quarter results were not impacted by the ending of COVID-era FHA loss mitigation options and the recent government shutdown, those events may affect future quarters.

There is much more in the article.

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. There were no tracking changes this week due to the data delay caused by the ongoing government shutdown. [November 14th estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.0 percent on November 6, unchanged from November 3 after rounding. [November 6th estimate]

Operation Affordability: Trump Prepares Tariff Cuts, Trade Deals To Lower Food Prices Ahead Of Midterms 

President Trump's Operation Affordability initiative kicked off this week, with the White House unveiling plans for tariff reductions and expanded trade ties with Latin American countries to boost imports of key food products. The goal: drive down supermarket prices ahead of the 2026 midterm election cycle to reverse darkening sentiment among low- and middle-income consumers.

Bloomberg reports that Trump is set to slash import levies on everyday staples, such as beef, bananas, and coffee, while moving ahead with new trade frameworks with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador. 

On Tuesday, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both revealed on corporate media major moves by the administration to reduce costs for Americans when it comes to food. Trump called the effort "surgical and beautiful," while Bessent said the effort will bring down prices "very quickly" and predicted that "people would start feeling better about the economy in the first half of 2026."

UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, describe President Trump's economy as "a big bet on AI and upper-income households."

Pingle noted the bifurcated consumer environment between higher-income and lower-income households in this chart.

The analyst also pointed out, "Our base case is that an equity market drawdown is avoided. Households suffer for the next two quarters."

He expects a $55 billion boost to disposable income in 2Q 2026 from retroactive tax relief in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

He said these "bumper refunds" should temporarily revive household spending in mid-2026, which is just in time for the midterm election cycle.

So Bessent is likely right that consumer sentiment will begin improving in the coming months, and this reversal is crucial. If these sentiment gauges fail to reverse, some folks may be drawn toward the newly transformed Democratic Party, now heavily influenced by Marxist-aligned DSA agenda, who aim to squander America's inheritance by dangling "free stuff" to voters.

The way to ensure the Marxist revolution stops dead in its tracks is to tackle the affordability crisis, a lingering disaster left over from the Biden-Harris years. 

The New York Times reported that updated "reciprocal tariff" rules will include carve-outs for beef and citrus, expanding on a prior executive order directing agencies to identify products not grown domestically for exemption.

New agreements with Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador are reducing tariffs on products like bananas and coffee beans, which the U.S. imports but doesn't produce domestically. These frameworks should be finalized by the end of the month. 

Operation Affordability will target low- and middle-income households as well as younger voters, including Gen Z and millennials. The administration's strategy is to improve sentiment and restore affordability, with the hope that these folks will vote "America First", rather than embrace unhinged left dangling free bus rides and government-run grocery stores, in next year's midterm elections.

AOC: “We are not the crazy ones…. They want us to think we are crazy. We are sane.”

pic.twitter.com/zch0baKHg6

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 27, 2025

It's always the ones insisting they're "not crazy" who end up being the real nutjobs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 10:20

The post 50-Year Mortgages: What Bill Pulte Does When He Isn’t Reviewing Mortgages of Trump’s Enemies appeared first on CEPR.

Walmart Board Names Successor As Long-Time CEO McMillon Steps Down

Walmart shares moved lower in premarket trading after news that CEO Doug McMillon will retire on January 31, 2026.

Still, he will remain on the Board until the next shareholder meeting and continue advising through 2027. 

McMillon will be replaced by John Furner, 51, currently head of Walmart U.S., who has been with the company for more than 30 years, rising from an hourly associate to senior leadership roles across merchandising, operations, sourcing, Sam's Club, and international divisions.

John Furner will become Walmart’s CEO on February 1, 2026, succeeding Doug McMillon who will retire January 31, 2026 but stay on the Board through June and as an advisor through January 31, 2027. https://t.co/JFoMW47gzF pic.twitter.com/6MY2yfWmNj

— Walmart News (@WalmartNews) November 14, 2025

McMillon joined Walmart in 1984 as a teenager unloading trucks in a distribution center during the summer. He returned to Walmart in 1990 and rose through the ranks:

• 1990s to 2000s: Merchandising and leadership roles in Walmart U.S.

• 2006 to 2009: President & CEO, Sam's Club

• 2009 to 2013: President & CEO, Walmart International

• CEO of Walmart (2014–1Q26)

McMillon became Walmart's fifth CEO in 2014, and its youngest ever at 46. His leadership marked a major turning point for the retail giant, unleashing a full-scale digital overhaul, modernizing the supply chain, and repositioning Walmart for a long-term fight in the e-commerce space against Amazon.

Walmart now retiring CEO Doug McMillon on his reinvention playbook:

(V/@YahooFinance archive) pic.twitter.com/MBfTrKDvxX

— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) November 14, 2025

McMillon wrote in a statement, "Serving as Walmart's CEO has been a great honor and I'm thankful to our Board and the Walton family for the opportunity. I'm incredibly proud of what our associates accomplished and deeply grateful for their commitment to our customers, to each other and to the communities we serve. Thank you, everyone! I've worked with John for more than 20 years. His love for our associates and this company runs deep. His curiosity and digital acumen combined with a deep commitment to our people and culture will enable him to take us to the next level. He's uniquely capable of leading the company through this next AI-driven transformation. He's a merchant, an operator, an innovator, and a builder. I know that our future is bright with his leadership."

Greg Penner, Chairman of Walmart, stated, "John Furner is the right leader to guide Walmart into our next chapter of growth and transformation." 

Will Walmart get to a trillion-dollar market capitalization before McMillon's exit? 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 09:40

Letitia James Targets Condé Nast Over Firing Of Workers Accused Of Disrupting Workplace

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

New York Attorney General Letitia James has a long history of lawfare, pandering to her political base by targeting Donald Trump, the National Rifle Association, and others. Now, she is thrilling her base by promising to go after Condé Nast after the company fired four employees who had a confrontation with Condé Nast Chief People Officer Stan Duncan outside of his office.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by TheWrap (@thewrap)

As part of the confrontation, the union members demanded to know what the company was doing to stand up to Donald Trump. However, the main objection concerned layoffs.

Some of the layoffs in question were the result of a restructuring of Vogue’s operations, which included a reduction in staff. Teen Vogue is being moved into Vogue.com as part of the change. There were also layoffs at WIRED.

Union activists have objected that the majority of the editorial staffers laid off were women of color or transgender. According to the union, the move exposes “the trend of layoffs at Condé disproportionately impacting marginalized employees.”

Condé Nast is now under fire from the NewsGuild of New York for firing four of the employees involved in the confrontation with the HR chief outside his C-suite office. The Guild claims that the terminations constitute “grossly illegal tactics” and union busting.

However, the company insists that the four caused a disruption and refused repeated requests to leave the office to allow Duncan and others to work.

They will undoubtedly file grievances, but union contracts and federal laws do not give activists the right to disrupt operations anywhere at any time of their choosing.

However, James gave a speech to activists promising to intervene, declaring "When we fight, we win,” and “People, united, will never be defeated,” before suggesting the economy is “rigged against working people.” She added:

“Since when is it illegal for an individual, or individuals, to express, or recognize, their First Amendment rights? Since when is that illegal? When is it illegal to ask a question? When is it illegal to speak truth to power? When is it illegal to get answers from your employer?

To all of those who are responsible for the termination of these individuals, let me introduce myself. My name is Letitia James, otherwise known as Tish, and I am here to let you know that I stand with workers now, and I will stand with workers forever.”

James has learned that it does not matter that her efforts often collapse in court, such as her ridiculous effort to shut down the NRA.

The company has stood firm, stating, “The employment terminations were lawful and based on clear violations of company policies. We have an obligation to protect our workplace from harassment and intimidation. If the Attorney General has concerns, we are happy to respond to her.”

The video shows Bon Appétit digital producer Alma Avalle, a NewsGuild of New York leader and trans activist, confronting Duncan with Wired senior White House reporter Jake Lahut, The New Yorker senior fact-checker Jasper Lo, and Condé Nast Entertainment videographer Ben Dewey.

Notably, the company not only claims that the widely circulated videotape does not depict the most disruptive conduct, but also that it has filed three previous grievances this year with the union regarding such behavior. The company told the National Labor Relations Board that the NewsGuild of New York has carried out “repeated and egregious disregard of our collective bargaining agreement.”

The merits of these claims will have to be hashed out by the NLRB and the parties within the grievance process. However, James’s effort to insert herself into the dispute is bizarre. She is suggesting that somehow her office may target the company for downsizing staff and firing those who allegedly disrupted the workplace.

It is another ratcheting up of rhetoric against companies in New York, adding to what is viewed as an increasingly hostile environment in the city. With the election of a Democratic Socialist as mayor, many executives and residents are reportedly considering possible moves to more supportive jurisdictions.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 09:20

Judge Denies Apple, OpenAI Bid To Dismiss Elon Musk's Antitrust Lawsuit

Authored by Vismaya V via Decrypt.co,

• A U.S. federal judge denied Apple and OpenAI’s motions to dismiss Elon Musk’s antitrust suit.

• The ruling allows X Corp. and xAI's claims to proceed, with Judge Mark Pittman directing the case toward summary judgment rather than early dismissal.

• The lawsuit targets Apple's exclusive ChatGPT integration into iOS, alleging it gives OpenAI access to hundreds of millions of iPhone users while blocking competitors like Grok from equal integration opportunities.

A federal judge denied Apple and OpenAI's motions to dismiss Elon Musk's antitrust lawsuit Thursday, allowing X Corp. and xAI's claims of market monopolization to proceed toward trial.

On Thursday, U.S. District Court Judge Mark Pittman rejected both companies' attempts to dismiss the case, ruling that the allegations warrant further examination through summary judgment. 

“This Order should not be construed as a judgment (or pre-judgment) on the merits of this litigation,” the ruling says.

The lawsuit, filed in August, targets Apple's June 2024 decision to make ChatGPT the exclusive AI assistant integrated into iOS.

"This is a procedural step. The real impact now is where the facts will actually be tested," Even Alex Chandra, a partner at IGNOS Law Alliance, told Decrypt. 

The case highlights "an unresolved question globally" about how "default AI integrations on dominant platforms" should be treated under antitrust law, with regulators still defining what the "AI market" even is, Chandra added. 

X Corp. and xAI's complaint seeks billions in damages, alleging the exclusive arrangement gives ChatGPT access to "hundreds of millions of iPhones" while blocking competitors like xAI's Grok chatbot. 

The lawsuit claims ChatGPT controls "at least 80 percent" of the generative AI chatbot market while Grok holds only "a few percent" despite superior capabilities.

Musk’s firms also accuse Apple of manipulating App Store rankings to favor ChatGPT while suppressing competitors. Despite Grok ranking second in Apple's "Productivity" category and X ranking first in "News," neither appears in the prominent "Must-Have Apps" section, where ChatGPT is featured.

Ishita Sharma, managing partner at Fathom Legal, told Decrypt the case hinges on "evidence of exclusion vs. efficiency,” whether rivals are "truly blocked" from Apple's iOS or if it's simply a "competitive partnership in a nascent but fast-moving market."

The defense will likely argue that "competition remains alive" across platforms and browsers, that the arrangement may not be "strictly exclusive" contractually, and that the integration delivers competitive efficiencies, Sharma added.

Decrypt has reached out to Apple, OpenAI, and X for comment.

Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015 with Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and Ilya Sutskever, but stepped down from its board in 2018, according to an announcement that said his departure would “eliminate a potential future conflict” as Tesla expanded its own AI work. 

Since then, Musk has accused OpenAI of ditching openness for “a closed, profit-driven arm of Microsoft” and has sued repeatedly, most notably a lawsuit over abandoning its founding mission and a suit filed two months back alleging trade secret theft.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 08:45