House Kills Bill On Blocking War With Venezuela

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com

The House on Wednesday voted down a War Powers Resolution meant to block President Trump from launching a war with Venezuela without congressional authorization, as required by the Constitution.

The bill failed in a vote of 211-213, with nine representatives not voting. Just three Republicans joined Democrats in supporting the bill: Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), and Don Bacon (NE). One Democrat, Henry Cuellar (TX), voted against the legislation.

Source: Spectrum News 1

The legislation would have directed the president to remove "United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress."

Before the Venezuela bill, another War Powers Resolution aimed at stopping President Trump’s bombing campaign against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific Ocean also failed. That bill failed in a vote of 210-216, with two Republicans (Massie and Bacon) voting in favor and two Democrats (Ceullar and Vicente Gonzalez (TX) voting against.

The votes came a day after President Trump declared a "complete and total blockade" on "sanctioned" tankers going into and leaving Venezuela, an action that’s widely considered an act of war under international law. President Trump and his top officials have also been clear that their goal is regime change.

"Do we want a miniature Afghanistan in the Western Hemisphere?" Massie, a co-sponsor of the bill, asked on the House floor before the vote.

"If that cost is acceptable to this Congress, then we should vote on it as a voice of the people and in accordance with our Constitution," Massie continued.

Massie: Previous presidents told us to go to war over WMDs that did not exist. Now it's the same playbook. Except we're told that drugs are the WMDs. If it were about drugs, we'd bomb Mexico or China or Colombia. And the president would not have pardoned Juan Orlando Hernandez.… pic.twitter.com/5h296rYnPJ

— Acyn (@Acyn) December 17, 2025

"And yet today, here we aren’t even voting on whether to declare war or authorize the use of military force. All we’re voting on is a War Powers Resolution that strengthens the fabric of our Republic by reasserting the plain and simple language in the Constitution that Congress must decide questions of war."

Several polls in recent months have found that the idea of the US going to war with Venezuela is extremely unpopular among Americans.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 15:00

House Kills Bill On Blocking War With Venezuela

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com

The House on Wednesday voted down a War Powers Resolution meant to block President Trump from launching a war with Venezuela without congressional authorization, as required by the Constitution.

The bill failed in a vote of 211-213, with nine representatives not voting. Just three Republicans joined Democrats in supporting the bill: Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), and Don Bacon (NE). One Democrat, Henry Cuellar (TX), voted against the legislation.

Source: Spectrum News 1

The legislation would have directed the president to remove "United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress."

Before the Venezuela bill, another War Powers Resolution aimed at stopping President Trump’s bombing campaign against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific Ocean also failed. That bill failed in a vote of 210-216, with two Republicans (Massie and Bacon) voting in favor and two Democrats (Ceullar and Vicente Gonzalez (TX) voting against.

The votes came a day after President Trump declared a "complete and total blockade" on "sanctioned" tankers going into and leaving Venezuela, an action that’s widely considered an act of war under international law. President Trump and his top officials have also been clear that their goal is regime change.

"Do we want a miniature Afghanistan in the Western Hemisphere?" Massie, a co-sponsor of the bill, asked on the House floor before the vote.

"If that cost is acceptable to this Congress, then we should vote on it as a voice of the people and in accordance with our Constitution," Massie continued.

Massie: Previous presidents told us to go to war over WMDs that did not exist. Now it's the same playbook. Except we're told that drugs are the WMDs. If it were about drugs, we'd bomb Mexico or China or Colombia. And the president would not have pardoned Juan Orlando Hernandez.… pic.twitter.com/5h296rYnPJ

— Acyn (@Acyn) December 17, 2025

"And yet today, here we aren’t even voting on whether to declare war or authorize the use of military force. All we’re voting on is a War Powers Resolution that strengthens the fabric of our Republic by reasserting the plain and simple language in the Constitution that Congress must decide questions of war."

Several polls in recent months have found that the idea of the US going to war with Venezuela is extremely unpopular among Americans.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 15:00

Apocalyptic Environmentalism Collides With Data Center Boom, Fuels Sky-High Mid-Atlantic Power Prices

A combination of "apocalyptic environmentalism" and an explosion in data center power demand has left power markets in the Mid-Atlantic heavily strained, triggering a surge in power bills that is roiling working-poor families, middle-income households, and mom-and-pop businesses.

Democratic kings, operating under one-party rule in crisis-ridden Maryland, spent the week pushing ahead with a slavery reparations study instead of tackling the power bill crisis that is inflicting tremendous financial pain on working poor households across the central part of the state.

Maryland's "apocalyptic environmentalism" - something we warned about 17 months ago - has helped create a fragile power grid that consumes roughly 40% more electricity than it generates, leaving consumers exposed to soaring power costs amid the rise of data centers being hooked up to the grid.

Left-wing lawmakers in Annapolis, fixated on a green globalist framework, ignored basic reliability planning for years. Utilities such as Exelon are now attempting to correct the power crisis by building new power plants, something that should've happened years ago. But the effort comes too late to close the power supply gap and to prevent skyrocketing regional power prices.

The latest power capacity auction run by PJM Interconnection, which operates the 13-state grid serving nearly one-fifth of Americans, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic, shows how sharply power generation capacity prices have exploded in recent years. Payments to generators active on the grid have surged to about $333.44 per megawatt day, up from a sub-$50 level in 2023.

Much of America's data center power demand is coming from the Mid-Atlantic region, specifically from Data Center Alley in Northern Virginia and parts of Maryland.

Meanwhile nationwide... 

"The amount of pressure on PJM is enormous," Daniel Palken, director of infrastructure for energy and permitting at philanthropy Arnold Ventures, told Bloomberg.

Fixing Maryland's power grid could have been done years ago and under the Biden-Harris admin, but Mid-Atlantic Democrats instead focused on implementing a globalist agenda centered on woke politics, illegal aliens, and green policies that stripped the grid of stable fossil fuel generation.

Now, Democrats in Maryland have spent this week more focused on slavery reparations than on power bills. This is what happens when far-left activists take control: their intent is not to fix problems but to advance ideology, regardless of the economic damage.

We've outlined the competing narratives at play from both political parties.

• Electric Bill Crisis Blame Game Begins: Democrats Slam Data Centers, GOP Faults "Climate-Cult Ideology"

Let's not forget the power bill crisis is mainly happening in Democrat-run states... 

And as we've noted, Nvidia-backed startup Starcloud has entered the picture that will use SpaceX's Starship rocket to blast data centers into low-Earth orbit to "bypass Earth-Based constriants." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 14:40

Apocalyptic Environmentalism Collides With Data Center Boom, Fuels Sky-High Mid-Atlantic Power Prices

A combination of "apocalyptic environmentalism" and an explosion in data center power demand has left power markets in the Mid-Atlantic heavily strained, triggering a surge in power bills that is roiling working-poor families, middle-income households, and mom-and-pop businesses.

Democratic kings, operating under one-party rule in crisis-ridden Maryland, spent the week pushing ahead with a slavery reparations study instead of tackling the power bill crisis that is inflicting tremendous financial pain on working poor households across the central part of the state.

Maryland's "apocalyptic environmentalism" - something we warned about 17 months ago - has helped create a fragile power grid that consumes roughly 40% more electricity than it generates, leaving consumers exposed to soaring power costs amid the rise of data centers being hooked up to the grid.

Left-wing lawmakers in Annapolis, fixated on a green globalist framework, ignored basic reliability planning for years. Utilities such as Exelon are now attempting to correct the power crisis by building new power plants, something that should've happened years ago. But the effort comes too late to close the power supply gap and to prevent skyrocketing regional power prices.

The latest power capacity auction run by PJM Interconnection, which operates the 13-state grid serving nearly one-fifth of Americans, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic, shows how sharply power generation capacity prices have exploded in recent years. Payments to generators active on the grid have surged to about $333.44 per megawatt day, up from a sub-$50 level in 2023.

Much of America's data center power demand is coming from the Mid-Atlantic region, specifically from Data Center Alley in Northern Virginia and parts of Maryland.

Meanwhile nationwide... 

"The amount of pressure on PJM is enormous," Daniel Palken, director of infrastructure for energy and permitting at philanthropy Arnold Ventures, told Bloomberg.

Fixing Maryland's power grid could have been done years ago and under the Biden-Harris admin, but Mid-Atlantic Democrats instead focused on implementing a globalist agenda centered on woke politics, illegal aliens, and green policies that stripped the grid of stable fossil fuel generation.

Now, Democrats in Maryland have spent this week more focused on slavery reparations than on power bills. This is what happens when far-left activists take control: their intent is not to fix problems but to advance ideology, regardless of the economic damage.

We've outlined the competing narratives at play from both political parties.

• Electric Bill Crisis Blame Game Begins: Democrats Slam Data Centers, GOP Faults "Climate-Cult Ideology"

Let's not forget the power bill crisis is mainly happening in Democrat-run states... 

And as we've noted, Nvidia-backed startup Starcloud has entered the picture that will use SpaceX's Starship rocket to blast data centers into low-Earth orbit to "bypass Earth-Based constriants." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 14:40

Trump Promises New Evidence Showing 2020 Election Fraud

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has in recent interviews repeatedly foreshadowed new revelations about improprieties in the 2020 election. He has suggested the evidence to be both voluminous and clear.

“The election was rigged in 2020. We have all the ammunition, all the stuff, and you'll see it come out. It’s coming out in truckloads,” Trump said during remarks at the White House Christmas reception this week.

He took particular aim at California, suggesting the state’s system of mailing ballots to all active registered voters is not secure.

“They mail out 38 million ballots, and they come in. Where ... do they go and where do they come from?” he said.

He said that because in 2024 he was able to win a number of heavily Hispanic districts in Florida and along the southern portion of Texas, he would also have been able to win the votes of Hispanic communities in California to the point of carrying the state. The fact that he did not, he suggested, indicated improprieties in the election process.

“It’s a rigged election in California, because we would win California by a lot,” he said. “And again, they feel they have the advantage with Hispanic. They don’t, because I won [the] Hispanic vote.”

Trump also promised evidence of 2020 election rigging several days earlier during a Dec. 9 interview with Politico’s Dasha Burns.

“It was a rigged election. Now everyone knows it. It’s going to come out over the next couple of months too. Loud and clear. Because we have all the information there,” Trump said.

The 2020 election, conducted under the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, was marred by allegations of fraud and other illegalities. The Trump campaign attempted to litigate the claims, but was not able to overturn the results in any state as many of the lawsuits were dismissed on procedural grounds.

An FBI investigation brought during the Biden administration and taken over by special counsel Jack Smith resulted in charges against Trump in 2023 over his efforts to challenge the official results of the election, including the appointment of several slates of alternative electors.

The prosecutors in that case filed secret subpoenas directed at more than 400 conservative organizations and individuals, including lawmakers, according to documents provided through whistleblower disclosures to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), which he released in October.

Smith dropped the case after Trump won the 2024 election, citing the inability to prosecute a sitting president.

Before the 2020 election, the FBI suppressed the issuance of intelligence from an informant alleging that the Chinese communist regime shipped tens of thousands of fake drivers licenses to the United States to be used by ineligible voters to cast ballots for Trump’s then-opponent Joe Biden, according to internal FBI communications released in July by Grassley.

The intelligence was reported internally by the Albany field office in September 2020, but FBI headquarters then asked the field office to recall it and collect more information. A field agent did so, but the report was never reissued, with the explanation that it would “contradict” congressional testimony of then-FBI Director Christopher Wray, according to released emails.

In March, Trump issued an executive order tasking the administration with ensuring that states properly check voter eligibility, including citizenship. It also tasked the Department of Justice with collecting voter fraud information from states and focusing voter fraud investigations on those states that refuse to cooperate.

The department is to use “all necessary action” to enforce laws that bar counting ballots received after Election Day.

Since May, the DOJ has been sending letters to states asking for voter registration data with the stated purpose of inspecting voter rolls to make sure they are accurate and up to date.

The department is now suing at least 18 states that have refused to provide the data.

Besides election fraud, the Trump camp has pointed to other issues that affected the 2020 election, such as some states using the pandemic as a justification to change election rules, as well as a letter signed by more than 50 former intelligence officials suggesting inaccurately that revelations from the Hunter Biden laptop were “Russian disinformation.”

Some polling has indicated that a determinative minority of voters might have changed their vote if they had been aware of the laptop story.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 14:20

Trump Promises New Evidence Showing 2020 Election Fraud

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has in recent interviews repeatedly foreshadowed new revelations about improprieties in the 2020 election. He has suggested the evidence to be both voluminous and clear.

“The election was rigged in 2020. We have all the ammunition, all the stuff, and you'll see it come out. It’s coming out in truckloads,” Trump said during remarks at the White House Christmas reception this week.

He took particular aim at California, suggesting the state’s system of mailing ballots to all active registered voters is not secure.

“They mail out 38 million ballots, and they come in. Where ... do they go and where do they come from?” he said.

He said that because in 2024 he was able to win a number of heavily Hispanic districts in Florida and along the southern portion of Texas, he would also have been able to win the votes of Hispanic communities in California to the point of carrying the state. The fact that he did not, he suggested, indicated improprieties in the election process.

“It’s a rigged election in California, because we would win California by a lot,” he said. “And again, they feel they have the advantage with Hispanic. They don’t, because I won [the] Hispanic vote.”

Trump also promised evidence of 2020 election rigging several days earlier during a Dec. 9 interview with Politico’s Dasha Burns.

“It was a rigged election. Now everyone knows it. It’s going to come out over the next couple of months too. Loud and clear. Because we have all the information there,” Trump said.

The 2020 election, conducted under the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, was marred by allegations of fraud and other illegalities. The Trump campaign attempted to litigate the claims, but was not able to overturn the results in any state as many of the lawsuits were dismissed on procedural grounds.

An FBI investigation brought during the Biden administration and taken over by special counsel Jack Smith resulted in charges against Trump in 2023 over his efforts to challenge the official results of the election, including the appointment of several slates of alternative electors.

The prosecutors in that case filed secret subpoenas directed at more than 400 conservative organizations and individuals, including lawmakers, according to documents provided through whistleblower disclosures to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), which he released in October.

Smith dropped the case after Trump won the 2024 election, citing the inability to prosecute a sitting president.

Before the 2020 election, the FBI suppressed the issuance of intelligence from an informant alleging that the Chinese communist regime shipped tens of thousands of fake drivers licenses to the United States to be used by ineligible voters to cast ballots for Trump’s then-opponent Joe Biden, according to internal FBI communications released in July by Grassley.

The intelligence was reported internally by the Albany field office in September 2020, but FBI headquarters then asked the field office to recall it and collect more information. A field agent did so, but the report was never reissued, with the explanation that it would “contradict” congressional testimony of then-FBI Director Christopher Wray, according to released emails.

In March, Trump issued an executive order tasking the administration with ensuring that states properly check voter eligibility, including citizenship. It also tasked the Department of Justice with collecting voter fraud information from states and focusing voter fraud investigations on those states that refuse to cooperate.

The department is to use “all necessary action” to enforce laws that bar counting ballots received after Election Day.

Since May, the DOJ has been sending letters to states asking for voter registration data with the stated purpose of inspecting voter rolls to make sure they are accurate and up to date.

The department is now suing at least 18 states that have refused to provide the data.

Besides election fraud, the Trump camp has pointed to other issues that affected the 2020 election, such as some states using the pandemic as a justification to change election rules, as well as a letter signed by more than 50 former intelligence officials suggesting inaccurately that revelations from the Hunter Biden laptop were “Russian disinformation.”

Some polling has indicated that a determinative minority of voters might have changed their vote if they had been aware of the laptop story.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 14:20

Former Harvard Morgue Manager, Wife Sentenced For Stealing And Selling Body Parts

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

A former morgue manager at Harvard Medical School has been sentenced to eight years in prison for stealing and selling human body parts donated for scientific research, the Department of Justice said.

Cedric Lodge, 58, was sentenced on Dec. 16 during a hearing in federal court in Pennsylvania. His wife, Denise Lodge, 65, received a sentence of 12 months and one day in prison.

The couple previously pleaded guilty to charges related to the interstate transportation of stolen goods. Cedric Lodge admitted to stealing body parts from cadavers donated to Harvard Medical School’s Anatomical Gift Program and selling them to buyers across the country.

Prosecutors said that between 2018 and March 2020, Cedric Lodge stole and trafficked “heads, brains, skin, bones, and other human remains” after the donated bodies had been used for teaching and research. Under agreements between donors and Harvard, those bodies were supposed to be cremated or returned to their families.

According to the federal indictment, Cedric Lodge transported the stolen remains from Harvard Medical School in Boston to his home in New Hampshire, where he stored and sold them. Prosecutors said Denise Lodge assisted in the scheme by communicating with buyers, accepting payments, and arranging shipments of the stolen remains. Payments were often made online through her PayPal account.

The remains were sold to Katrina MacLean, Joshua Taylor, and others, prosecutors said. MacLean allegedly resold the remains to buyers across the country, including through her curiosities store, and Taylor has been accused of purchasing body parts from Lodge for resale. Lodge also allowed MacLean, Taylor, and others to enter the morgue to select which remains they wished to buy, according to the indictment.

MacLean, of Massachusetts, and Taylor, of Pennsylvania, have both pleaded guilty this year for their roles in the scheme and are awaiting sentencing. Several other buyers have already been sentenced to prison time.

The case has drawn widespread attention since federal authorities announced charges in 2023. Prosecutors brought the case in Pennsylvania because key elements of the crimes, including the shipping, receipt, and resale of stolen remains, took place in that jurisdiction.

“Today’s sentencing is another step forward in ensuring those who orchestrated and executed this heinous crime are brought to justice,” Wayne Jacobs, special agent in charge of the FBI Philadelphia Field Office, said in a statement.

Harvard Medical School officials said they were unaware of Cedric Lodge’s activities until notified by the FBI. The school placed him on leave in March 2023 after learning of the federal investigation and “immediately” suspended his campus access. He was fired in May of that year after investigators provided what the school said was “adequate information” to justify his termination.

Harvard, which hired Cedric Lodge in 1995, condemned his actions as an “abhorrent betrayal.”

“We owe it to ourselves, our community, our profession, and our patients and their loved ones to ensure that [Harvard Medical School] is worthy of the donors who have entrusted their bodies to us for the advancement of medical education and research,” Medical School Dean George Daley and Dean of Medical Education Edward Hundert wrote in a campuswide message following the indictment.

Although federal investigators did not find any criminal wrongdoing on Harvard’s part, the university is facing a class-action lawsuit brought by families affected by the scandal.

In February 2024, a Massachusetts Superior Court judge dismissed a lawsuit from family members of donors whose remains were stolen and sold. However, in October, a four-judge panel of the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court revived the case, saying that the families had presented sufficient evidence to claim that Harvard failed to act in good faith in overseeing its morgue.

Harvard has maintained that Cedric Lodge’s conduct was “inconsistent with the standards and values of Harvard” and expressed “deep sorrow for the families of donors who may have been impacted,” according to student newspaper The Harvard Crimson.

An attorney representing Cedric Lodge did not respond to a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 13:00

Australian Counterterrorism Unit Rams Car, Arrests Five Men Suspected Of Planning Violence

Four days after the Bondi Beach terror attack in Australia, a counterterrorism unit stopped what appeared to be a vehicle carrying five Middle Eastern men in Liverpool, Sydney, who were allegedly heading toward the Bondi Beach area.

BREAKING:

Australian police ram a car with 5 Islamists travelling to Bondi Beach.

Seems like they had info that another attack might have been imminent. The West is full of dangerous Islamists. pic.twitter.com/jbUGtBaC53

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 18, 2025

Local media 7NEWS Sydney reported, "Counter terrorism police have deliberately rammed a car in Liverpool to arrest those inside, shocking onlookers on Campbell Street."

Counter terrorism police have deliberately rammed a car in Liverpool to arrest those inside, shocking onlookers on Campbell Street. pic.twitter.com/9nexWyDwZp

— 7NEWS Sydney (@7NewsSydney) December 18, 2025

Sky News said NSW Police acted on intelligence given the heightened security environment following the Bondi Beach terror attack four days ago, which left 15 people dead and more than 40 injured at a Hanukkah celebration. The victims ranged in age from children to elderly adults, and the attack has been widely described as an antisemitic terrorist act by radical Islamists.

"Tactical Operations police responded to information received that a violent act was possibly being planned," NSW Police wrote in a statement.

"It's understood police took a cautious approach to the intelligence, given the climate in the wake of the Bondi terror attack on Sunday evening," the outlet noted, adding, "It's unclear what the intention of the men was in travelling to Bondi."

UK tabloid Daily Star ...

Is anyone going to tell the liberals that mass migration was perhaps a bad idea?  

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 12:55

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2025). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet - and some data is still delayed due to the government shutdown).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong.  As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020.
Here were my questions for 2025 (posted in December 2024).  The analysis for the housing related questions were posted in the newsletter, and the other questions on this blog.
10) Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?

"“Time” will likely lead to more new listings in 2025. Mortgage rates will remain well above the pandemic lows, and new listings will likely be depressed again in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2025. However, it still seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels."

This was correct on all points.

Here is a graph from Altos Research showing active single-family inventory through December 12, 2025.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 14% compared to the same week last year.
However, inventory is still below pre-pandemic normal levels. 
9) Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

"I don’t expect national inventory to reach 2019 levels but much of the remaining gap between 2019 and 2024 levels will likely close in 2025. If existing home sales remain fairly sluggish, we might see national months-of-supply above 5 months in mid-2025.

That would likely lead to mostly flat prices nationally in 2025. However, I expect some areas - with higher months-of-supply - will see price decline in 2025."

This was correct.

As of September, the National Case-Shiller index SA was up 1.3% year-over-year. (Case-Shiller for October will be released December 30th).

The FHFA index was up 1.7% YoY in September, and the Freddie Mac index was up 1.0% in October.
 The ICE HPI was up 0.8% in November.
Mostly flat prices year-over-year and no crash or surge in house prices in 2025.  

8) Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

"My guess is multi-family starts will decline further in 2025, likely down 5% or so year-over-year (less than the previous 2 years). Single family starts will likely be mostly unchanged year-over-year, putting total starts down slightly.

I expect New Home sales to be up around 5% YoY."

NOTE: The most recent data is for August due to the government shutdown, so this is very uncertain.
This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

As of August, single family starts were down 4.9% year-to-date (YTD) compared to the same period in 2023.  Single family starts were a little weaker than expected.
Multi-family starts were up 17.5% YTD (much stronger than expected).
Total starts were up 0.7% YTD.

The next graph shows new home sales as of August (Sales reports for September, October and November have not been scheduled yet).

New home sales were down 1.4% YTD through August. 
This is still very unclear.  
I expect multifamily starts to be weaker later in the year (rents remain under pressure, and architects have reported weak billings for multifamily for 40 consecutive months.
7) Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025?

"Clearly wage growth is slowing and I expect to see some further decreases in both the Average hourly earnings from the CES, and in the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker.  My sense is nominal wages will increase close to mid-to-high 3% range YoY in 2025 according to the CES."

This was correct.
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Excluding the pandemic spike, wage growth peaked at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and declined to 3.5% in November 2025.
6) Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?

"With inflation still above target over the last 6 months, my guess is there will be 1 or 2 rate cuts in 2025."

There were 3 rate cuts in 2025 with the Fed Funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent in December 20254. 

5) Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025?

"In general, I'm ignoring policy changes ... tariffs could be implemented quickly and depending on the policy this could push up the inflation rate.

My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2025 (from the current 2.8%) but still be above the Fed's 2% target by Q4 2025."

This data has also been delayed.  
According to the September Personal Income and Outlays report released in early December, the September PCE price index increased 2.8 percent year-over-year, and the September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent year-over-year. 

4) Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025?

"Since almost all of the workers impacted by the pandemic have returned to the labor force, demographics will be the key driver of the participation rate in 2025 (barring some unseen event).  Demographics will be pushing the participation rate down over the next decade, so, my guess is the participation rate will decline to around 62.2% in December 2025."

The Labor Force Participation Rate was at 62.5% in November.
The participation rate dipped to 62.2% in July, but bounced back some at the end of the year.
This is down from the post pandemic peak of 62.8%.
The decline from demographics (retiring baby boomers) is now pushing down the rate, however, not as much as I expected.
3) Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?

"My guess is the unemployment rate will decline to 4% or so by December 2025.  (Lower than the FOMC forecast of 4.2% to 4.5%)."

The unemployment rate was at 4.6% in November (the FOMC beat me on this one!).  Policy has been more negative for unemployment than I expected.

2) Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?

"So, my forecast is for gains of around 1.0 million jobs in 2025.  This will probably be the slowest job growth since 2010 (excluding the 2020 pandemic job losses)."

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Through November the economy has added 610 thousand jobs in 2025, well below my guess.
Policy has been negative for employment in 2025.

1) Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

"Looking at 2025, a recession is mostly off the table. ... GDP growth is a combination of labor force growth and productivity. Productivity varies and is difficult to predict, but the labor force growth will likely be sluggish in 2025.  So, my guess is that real annual GDP growth will be less than most expect, perhaps around 1.5% in 2025."

We still do not have the GDP release for Q3.
I was correct about no recession, but growth will likely be closer to 2.0% or so in 2025.

For the most part, the economy evolved as expected in 2025. Policy impacted employment and unemployment more than I expected.

China's 'Manhattan Project' Builds Secret EUV Chip Machine Long Blocked By The West

Chinese scientists have built a prototype extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine in a high-security Shenzhen lab, a milestone Washington has long sought to block, according to a new report from Reuters. The machine, completed in early 2025 and now in testing, occupies nearly an entire factory floor and was developed by former ASML engineers who reverse-engineered the Dutch firm’s technology, two sources said.

EUV machines are central to advanced chipmaking, using extreme ultraviolet light to etch ultra-fine circuits. China’s prototype can generate EUV light but has not yet produced working chips. In April, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said China would need “many, many years” to develop the technology, but the prototype suggests Beijing may be closer to semiconductor independence than expected.

Speculation on Twitter this morning suggests China may have simply "stole the source"...

My sources on the ground says:

They stole the source… literally. Apparently they tried using a bunch of other versions for past decade could never get enough power out of it.

It’s hard to actually just rip one out of a functioning machine without being caught. So they think… https://t.co/1PR2DKGw49

— bubble boi (@bubbleboi) December 18, 2025

Reuters comments that China still faces major hurdles, especially in precision optics. Parts from older ASML machines sourced on secondary markets enabled the prototype, with an official target of producing chips by 2028, though insiders say 2030 is more realistic. Chinese authorities did not comment.

Reuters notes that the secret project caps a six-year push for semiconductor self-sufficiency under President Xi Jinping and is described by sources as China’s version of the Manhattan Project. Huawei coordinates thousands of engineers across companies and research institutes. “The aim is for China to eventually be able to make advanced chips on machines that are entirely China-made,” one source said. “China wants the United States 100% kicked out of its supply chains.”

Until now, only ASML has mastered EUV technology. Its machines cost about $250 million, took decades to commercialize, and have never been sold to China due to U.S.-led export controls. “It makes sense that companies would want to replicate our technology, but doing so is no small feat,” ASML said.

Those controls slowed China’s progress but did not stop aggressive recruitment of overseas talent, including retired, Chinese-born former ASML engineers working under aliases in secure facilities. Dutch intelligence has warned China uses extensive espionage and recruitment to obtain Western technology.

China’s prototype is much larger and cruder than ASML’s but operational. Progress has been limited by difficulty sourcing advanced optics from suppliers like Zeiss. Research institutes such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ CIOMP helped integrate EUV light into the system in early 2025.

Analyst Jeff Koch said China will have made “meaningful progress” if the light source proves powerful and reliable. “No doubt this is technically feasible, it's just a question of timeline,” he said. “China has the advantage that commercial EUV now exists, so they aren't starting from zero.”

Obviously would be very racist to suggest that when EUV light sources are one of our last 3 technical advantages over China, hiring “Lin Nan” as “head of light sources” might not be the greatest idea https://t.co/qOcAQQggHD pic.twitter.com/FolTvVUteU

— Curtis Yarvin (@curtis_yarvin) December 18, 2025

China has sourced components from older ASML systems, Japanese suppliers, and secondhand markets, sometimes using intermediaries. Around 100 young engineers are reverse-engineering parts under constant surveillance, with bonuses for success.

Huawei is deeply involved across the chip supply chain. Some staff sleep on-site with restricted phone access, and teams are isolated to protect secrecy. “The teams are kept isolated from each other to protect the confidentiality of the project,” one source said. “They don't know what the other teams work on.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 12:40

The post Public Makes Trillions on Plunging Crypto appeared first on CEPR.

Fed Inflation Target Nears As US CPI Tumbles More Than Expected In November

'A grain of salt' is how many have described their position on this morning's government shutdown-delayed release of October and November Consumer Price Inflation data.

Headline CPI slowed to 2.7% YoY in November (dramatically below the 3.1% YoY expected)

Core CPI fell to 2.6% YoY in November (well below the 3.0% YoY expected) and the lowest since March 2021...

The Core CPI print was five standard deviations below consensus...

There is very little additional data for now with Core Goods and Services down modestly while Energy prices were higher...

...but will drop notably as oil prices have plunged...

Shelter and Rent inflation also continues to slow dramatically...

As expected in Sept, both Rent and Shelter CPI are freefalling as they catch down to real-time 3rd party metrics.

This is also Miran's thesis on disinflation and CPI extending its slide in 2026. https://t.co/xcwlPzTjQO pic.twitter.com/9cQdYTHKXj

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 18, 2025

SuperCore CPI also plunged...

3m annualized CPI tumbled to 2.08% YoY... very close to The Fed's target...

For all those whining about the missing data or extrapolated data... the BLS shows that this report was not that different than we have become used to...

Finally, we end with three words from Goldman's Delta-One desk-head with regard this morning's data: 'beware the noise'.

Disinflation remains a key pillar of the equity bull case, and these levels still imply inflation hovering closer to 3% so not quite there yet (but heading in the right direction... a lot faster than many expected).

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 12:36

US Judge Plans To Block Hundreds Of Trump Admin Layoffs

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. District Judge Susan Illston stated during a court hearing that she would block the departments of State and Education from moving forward with approximately 250 and 150 layoffs, respectively.

The decision comes after a lawsuit filed in October by unions challenging the Trump administration’s plans to shrink the federal workforce.

Illston also noted she would require the rehiring of about 300 employees laid off amid the 43-day shutdown that began on Oct. 1 at the State Department, Defense Department, General Services Administration, and Small Business Administration.

“The chaotic nature of these [layoffs] has been continuing and has affected employees of the government in many ways, including loss of potential alternative jobs and loss of health care coverage,” Illston said.

She said she would issue a formal written order later Wednesday but anticipated postponing enforcement until next week to provide the government time to appeal her decision. Illston said she was concerned about causing “whiplash” for workers who have dealt with multiple layoffs and reinstatements already this year.

The ruling comes after a continuing resolution passed last month, preventing agencies from imposing layoffs until Jan. 30. The Trump administration argued that the ruling did not apply to cuts announced prior to the Oct. 1 shutdown but Illston concurred with the unions, including the American Federation of Government Employees.

The lawsuit, first filed in October, sought to prevent more than 4,000 layoffs across all agencies.

Illston previously stayed a restraining order in response to the union’s request, arguing that it is “far from normal for an administration to fire line-level civilian employees during a government shutdown as a way to punish the opposing political party,” before referencing comments made by President Donald Trump on social media.

In late October, Illston extended an indefinite block on thousands of layoffs during the shutdown, which followed a temporary injunction earlier that month stopping shutdown-related layoffs. She then expanded the block on layoffs during the shutdown. She expanded the block to employees represented by the National Federation of Federal Employees, the Service Employees International Union, and the National Association of Government Employees.

Her original Oct. 15 order had applied only to members of the American Federation of Government Employees and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the unions that filed the lawsuit.

“The American people selected someone known above all else for his eloquence in communicating to employees that ‘you’re fired,’” Assistant U.S. Attorney Michael Velchik said at an Oct. 28 hearing. “This is what they voted for.”

The “You’re fired” line stems from Trump’s time on the reality television series “The Apprentice.” He used the catchphrase regularly.

In May, Illston prevented mass layoffs at the Department of Education, a move the administration tried to stop but chose not to appeal to the Supreme Court after withdrawing an attempt to do so.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 12:20

EU Will Look 'Weak' If It Doesn't Confiscate Russian Funds, Zelensky Tells Crunch Summit

"We have to find a solution today," said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. "We won't leave the European Council without a solution for the funding for Ukraine for the next two years."

The 27 leaders of the European Union are gathered in Brussels Thursday, trying to figure out a way forward on raising at least €90 billion to meet Ukraine's financial and military needs for the next two years. Central to this is an expected decision on confiscating Russian assets, but major hurdles remain - especially the fact that Belgium is dead set against it, and this is where the bulk of these assets are held.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Brussels too, and he's laying the guilt-trip and emotions on thick. He warned on Thursday that Europe will be seen as "weak" if it doesn't confiscate the funds.

via Associated Press

"I know that Russia is threatening different countries over this decision. But we shouldn't be scared of these threats – we should be scared that Europe will be weak," he said. He's also said that painful sacrifices will be needed to protect Europe.

There have been no breakthroughs reported following the morning session, however, also as the threat of major Russian legal action, including lawsuits, hangs over Belgium:

There is no breakthrough in the discussions yet. The main sticking point remains the financial guarantees that Belgium is asking from the other 26 EU member states. This “reparations loan” – that is what the European Commission calls it – is Russian money that is frozen here in the EU.

This will be the backup for a loan to Ukraine, which in theory will have to be paid back by Russia after the war in terms of reparations. But this is all in theory, because maybe Russia is never going to pay reparations, and that’s why Belgium is asking for guarantees.

The total amount of these assets is 210 billion euros ($247bn) across countries in Europe, but the European Commission has proposed starting with a 90-billion-euro ($106bn) loan for the next two years, so Belgium wants guarantees for at least this amount.

The Kremlin has decried all of this as making plans for outright theft, and that it would respond accordingly, placing Belgium most directly in its crosshairs.

While the EU argues that there is no "theft" as "the right of the Russian Central Bank to make a claim on its money and Euroclear’s duty to repay will remain in tact," Belgian leadership has remained resistant to EU leaderships' scheming.

Prime Minister of Belgium, Bart De Wever recently voiced the following: “The European states pushing for the confiscation of Russian assets in Belgium are mostly those bordering Russia, which have experienced Soviet tyranny and are psychologically at war. But we are not at war with Russia. And we do not wish to be at war with Russia. We must negotiate based on reality, not fantasy. In reality, you don’t steal money from a foreign central bank. Stealing from a central bank is like robbing an embassy.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 12:00

Trump Media To Merge With Nuclear Fusion Company TAE In $6 Billion Deal

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump’s media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), said on Dec. 18 that it has signed a definitive agreement to merge with nuclear fusion firm TAE Technologies in an all-stock transaction valued at more than $6 billion, an ambitious tie-up the companies said was a bid to help “power America’s technology revolution.”

In a joint statement, TMTG—owner of Truth Social—and TAE said the deal seeks to create one of the world’s first publicly traded fusion companies.

In a post on Truth Social, TMTG described the move as a natural extension of its broader mission.

“From its inception, TMTG has been dedicated to building things the American people needed,” the company said, citing the launches of Truth Social and Truth+.

“And as our country positions itself to achieve global technology dominance in AI, quantum computing, and other groundbreaking innovations, we’re merging with @TAE to build the engine we believe will power America’s technology revolution.”

Under the definitive merger agreement, TMTG shareholders and privately held TAE are expected to each own roughly 50 percent of the combined company on a fully diluted basis.

The transaction has been approved by the boards of both companies and is expected to close in mid-2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Fusion Ambitions

The companies said the combined entity plans to site and begin construction in 2026 on what they describe as the world’s first utility-scale fusion power plant, a 50-megawatt-electric (MWe) facility.

Additional plants in the 350 to 500 MWe range are also planned, with the companies outlining their expectations that fusion energy will deliver “economic, abundant, and dependable” electricity while helping the United States meet surging power demands driven by artificial intelligence.

To support that push, TMTG has agreed to provide up to $200 million of cash to TAE at signing, with an additional $100 million available upon the initial filing of a Form S-4 registration statement.

Founded in 1998, TAE said it has spent more than 25 years developing fusion technology aimed at commercial deployment. TAE said in a June 2 statement it had built “five increasingly powerful and productive” fusion demonstration units to National Laboratory scale. It has also advanced construction on a sixth demonstration unit, Copernicus, which the company said is “on track to achieve a net energy milestone before the end of the decade.”

The company has raised more than $1.3 billion in private capital from investors including Google, Chevron Technology Ventures, Goldman Sachs, and Charles Schwab.

Leadership, Governance

TMTG CEO Devin Nunes and TAE CEO Michl Binderbauer are expected to serve as co-CEOs of the combined entity, the companies said. Nunes would continue to lead TMTG’s brands, while Binderbauer would oversee TAE’s fusion operations.

“Trump Media & Technology Group built uncancellable infrastructure to secure free expression online for Americans, and now we’re taking a big step forward toward a revolutionary technology that will cement America’s global energy dominance for generations,” Nunes said in a statement.

Truth Social CEO Devin Nunes speaks during a general session at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas, Texas, on August 5, 2022. Go Nakamura/Reuters

“Fusion power will be the most dramatic energy breakthrough since the onset of commercial nuclear energy in the 1950s,” he added, calling it an innovation that would “lower energy prices, boost supply, ensure America’s A.I.-supremacy, revive our manufacturing base and bolster national defense.”

Binderbauer said recent progress positions TAE to move quickly toward commercialization.

“Our talented team, through its commitment and dedication to science, is poised to solve the immense global challenge of energy scarcity,” he said, adding that the company is “excited to identify our first site and begin deploying this revolutionary technology that we expect to fundamentally transform America’s energy supply.”

Michael B. Schwab, founder and managing director of Big Sky Partners, is expected to serve as chairman of a planned nine-member board. The board is slated to include two directors from TMTG—Nunes and Donald Trump Jr.—two from TAE, and five independent directors to be named later.

Based on TMTG’s trailing 30-day volume-weighted average share price as of Dec. 17, the deal values each share of TAE common stock at $53.89 on a fully diluted basis.

Upon closing, TMTG would become the holding company for Truth Social, Truth+, Truth.Fi, TAE, and its subsidiaries, TAE Power Solutions and TAE Life Sciences.

The merger comes on the heels of TMTG’s third-quarter results, which show a strengthened balance sheet and improved cash position. The company said it ended the third quarter with $3.1 billion in financial assets and posted $10.1 million in operating cash flow, its second consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 11:40

It's Crunch Time For Europe Which Decides Whether To Confiscate Russian Assets

By Elwin de Groot and Bas van Geffen, strategists at Rabobank

Is today crunch-time for the EU? That is the billion dollar question. European leaders are meeting in Brussels for a two‑day European Council summit. Their agenda covers a range of topics, including a ‘strategic debate’ on the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework for 2028-2034, EU enlargement, migration, the Mercosur deal that risks being delayed (or cancelled?) again, preparation of the European defence roadmap, and geo-economic strategy through a review of competitiveness.

These are all important topics. But without a doubt, the question of funding Ukraine is the toughest nut to crack. Europe remains committed to this support, as Russia’s Putin showed little willingness to compromise in his speech yesterday: He said that Russia will not back down from its mission to “liberate its historic lands” and that the “European swine” backing Ukraine would ultimately lose power.

The EU’s goal is still to grant a €90-140  billion loan to Ukraine to support its economy and military through 2026–27, backed by frozen assets from the Russian central bank that are held mostly in Euroclear (Belgium). But Belgium has stressed legal and financial liabilities concerns. The country has proposed a joint-EU loan instead. 

"We want to finance the war for much longer to end it as quickly as possible" https://t.co/Vdy69Tfnyj pic.twitter.com/R6826XwP30

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) December 18, 2025

As a first step towards using the frozen assets, the EU decided last week –by qualified majority– to replace the six-month renewal cycle with and open-ended freeze of those assets. This provision ensures the funds cannot be reclaimed by Russia due to vetoes from Hungary or Slovakia.

But the next step proves to be more difficult. The White House has been dialing up pressure on EU governments to block the plan, arguing that tapping these assets might prolong the war and reduce the chance of reaching a peace agreement. Indeed, US diplomats have warned that Russian lawsuits, such as the one already filed against Euroclear, could trigger repayment obligations, potentially to the US.

In any case, German Chancellor Merz has now thrown his full weight in this discussion, backing the frozen assets plan and trying to force a decision. Yesterday he told parliament that “It is about aid for Ukraine, but it is also about sending a clear signal to Russia that we will use the assets that are available here to help end this war as quickly as possible.”

That is perhaps Merz’ style. But he also may be emboldened by the fact that German lawmakers approved a record list of arms and military equipment purchases yesterday, worth around €50 billion, taking the total amount approved this year to nearly €83 billion. As those orders land on military equipment maker’s desks, this should provide a significant boost to German industry the coming year.

There have been quite some critical remarks on the effectiveness of the German spending plans, such as from the German Council of Economic Experts, but there can be little doubt that next year should see a significant fiscal impulse. And this is clearly a factor that has weighed on German Bunds in recent months, with the 10y yield –at 2.86% yesterday– within a whisker of this year’s high.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 11:21

Bessent Forecasts 'Substantial' Tax Refunds, Real Wage Increases Next Year

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Confirming President Trump's triumphant comments last night, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that an increase in Americans’ tax refunds would enable the United States to “go back to the kind of economy that we had.”

While speaking to Fox Business, Bessent said that “substantial refunds” are coming to Americans after they submit their taxes in the first quarter.

“They will get an increase in real incomes. So I am very optimistic for working Americans, for job growth, for capital formation,” the secretary said.

Later in the interview, the secretary said that after larger increases in tax refunds, some workers will be able to keep “more of their paychecks” and predicted the United States would “go back to the kind of non-inflationary growth where working Americans do better than supervised workers.”

He added that the government shutdown that lasted for a month and a half “was a hit to GDP [and] slowed things down.”

“We’re still going to finish the year probably [with] 3.5 percent GDP growth, which is incredible,” he said.

Regarding inflation, which has been relatively elevated since the COVID-19 pandemic years, Bessent forecast a “substantial drop” in prices during the first six months of 2026, adding that “rents are down” due to a drop in mass illegal immigration.

“President Trump, by enforcing the border, sending home more than 2 million illegals, we’re now seeing … rents coming down substantially,” he said.

However, he warned that a possible government shutdown could be coming at the end of January.

The previous stopgap measure to fund the government will last only until Jan. 30.

“If they try to shut down the government, I believe that the Senate Republicans should immediately forgo the filibuster, keep the government open, and let the economy do its thing,” Bessent said.

His comments come as the Trump administration has sought to push back on relatively lower consumer and small business sentiment, and after Democrats were able to win several key elections in November.

The November job gains were higher than the 40,000 economists had forecast. The October job losses were caused by a 162,000 drop in federal workers, many of whom resigned at the end of fiscal year 2025 on Sept. 30.

A report released on Dec. 16 shows that the United States gained 64,000 jobs in November but lost 105,000 in October as federal workers departed after cutbacks in the federal government. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent last month, the highest since 2021.

Some Democrats, such as Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, have said that Trump administration policies, such as tariffs, have harmed the economy. They are emphasizing a message of affordability.

Trump has been “doing nothing” to lower grocery or energy prices, Pritzker told Pod Save America earlier this week, adding that “he’s doing the opposite” with tariffs.

Responding to the affordability narrative, President Donald Trump said at an event in Pennsylvania this past week that he has made it a priority to lower costs and accused Democrats of pushing inflationary policies.

“They always have a hoax—the new word is affordability,” he said, adding, “They gave you the highest inflation in history.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 10:20

Activist Investor Elliott Builds Billion Dollar Stake In Lululemon

Shares of Lululemon are higher in premarket trading after a report that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a $1 billion stake in the company and is pushing for a turnaround at the struggling athletic apparel brand.

The Wall Street Journal cites sources familiar with Elliott's move to build a billion-dollar position, making it one of the company's largest shareholders. Elliott is seeking a new CEO to replace Calvin McDonald, who will step down in January.

Elliott has been working with veteran retail executive Jane Nielsen as a potential CEO candidate. Nielsen, a former CFO and COO at Ralph Lauren and a former CFO at Coach, is seen by Elliott as a capable leader to turn the company around. The company has faced mounting criticism over quality issues, brand dilution, and operational missteps. More importantly, it has lost market share in recent years to athletic apparel competitors Vuori and Alo Yoga.

Elliott's Paul Singer must be an admirer of the leggings.

Last week, Lululemon shares moved higher after the company reported a China-led third-quarter beat and announced McDonald's transition.

Goldman analyst Brooke Roach offered her take on earnings and CEO transition:

With investors focused on LULU's ability to drive core US market reacceleration, we believe today's update offers three areas for incremental optimism. (1) Clearer action plan. Today we heard a more formal representation of LULU's three-pillar action plan to drive an inflection. While we believe US growth remains a show-me story after core deceleration more than offset the benefit from incremental newness in 2025, we are encouraged by the more comprehensive plan to improve the store experience and highlight new product launches, as well as management's commentary regarding healthy consumer engagement with new product. (2) Potential for a new leadership perspective. The announced departure of Mr. McDonald offers an opportunity for LULU to bring in a leader who could offer a new perspective on the changes necessary and the urgency with which those changes should be implemented. (3) Recent trends have been modestly stronger, driven by China and margin delivery. China comps were much stronger than expected, and while some of this is due to timing or specific activations, the sequential recovery is notable. Further, margin delivery in the quarter was stronger, and tariff mitigation commentary was modestly better. Stepping back, we acknowledge the strategic initiatives that management is implementing to reinvigorate US growth, and see potential for some improvement as the company accelerates newness to ~35% of the assortment by Spring 26 alongside a faster go-to-market process. That said, this is balanced by an uncertain near-term outlook (timing shifts / post-Thanksgiving slowdown / continued negative US comps), and margin pressure will persist into FY26. Next catalyst is the ICR Conference in early January (holiday sales).

The WSJ report made no mention of when Elliott's traders were buying shares of Lululemon. But with the stock down roughly 68% from its December 2023 peak, it's reasonable to think the position was built over the past several months. Shares are also at Covid lows...

Earlier this year, Elliott took a $4 billion stake in Pepsi as it sought a transformation. In recent months, it took a position in Barrick Mining.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 10:00

SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs.
Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch.  

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August 2025.
Services were up 3.2% YoY as of November 2025, down from 3.6% YoY in September.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in September..
The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.
Now the YoY change in prices is increasing due to tariffs.

Durables were up 1.5% YoY as of November 2025, down from 1.8% YoY in September.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 1.4% YoY in November, down from 1.5% YoY in September.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through November) and housing from the PCE report (through September)

Shelter was up 3.0% year-over-year in November, down from 3.6% in September. Housing (PCE) was up 3.4% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August.
This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).
Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.3% YoY in November, down from 2.6% YoY in September.

Initial Jobless Claims Show No Signs Of Labor Market Distress

After the Thanksgiving Week debacle, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remains back in the same - very low - range it has been in for the last four years at 224k...

Source: Bloomberg

After the shutdown, we have seen an uptick in initial jobless claims in the 'Deep TriState'...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing jobless claims bounced back a little from the big Thanksgiving week plunge but remain well off recent highs...

Source: Bloomberg

So despite the uptick in the BLS-derived unemployment rate, jobless claims data show no signs of acute distress anywhere.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/18/2025 - 08:51