Individual Economists

America's Low-Wage Workers Aren't All High-School Dropouts

Zero Hedge -

America's Low-Wage Workers Aren't All High-School Dropouts

Despite a strong labor market and rising nominal wages, there are still millions of people taking home less than $20 per hour on average.

Education plays a major role in determining earnings, but it does not guarantee high wages—or even employment.

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the share and number of U.S. low-wage workers earning less than $20 per hour by education level, using data from the Economic Policy Institute as of July 2025.

Low-Wage Work Is Concentrated Among Less-Educated Workers

Workers without a high school diploma face the greatest exposure to low wages. Roughly two-thirds of this group—about 6.9 million people—earn less than $20 per hour, reflecting limited access to higher-paying occupations and fewer opportunities for advancement.

The table below breaks down low-wage workers by education level:

Among workers whose highest education is a high school diploma, 43% earn under $20 per hour. This group represents the largest number of low-wage workers overall, totaling nearly 15.9 million people.

Even some college education offers only partial protection. More than one-third of workers with some college (but no completed degree) earn below the $20 threshold, amounting to 12.9 million workers.

College Degrees Don’t Eliminate Low Wages

Higher education significantly lowers the likelihood of earning under $20 per hour, but it does not eliminate it. About 12% of workers with a college or advanced degree, roughly 7.2 million people, still fall below this pay level.

Overall, while education remains one of the strongest determinants of earnings, income outcomes depend on various factors, including industry mix, regional costs of living, and labor market conditions.

If you found this interesting, explore more labor market and income visuals on Voronoi, including U.S. States With the Most Low-Wage Workers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 09:55

How Global Economic Power Has Shifted Over The Past 45 Years

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How Global Economic Power Has Shifted Over The Past 45 Years

Over the past four decades, the global economic hierarchy has undergone profound change.

Some economies have grown steadily, others have surged, and a few have slipped down the rankings as new players emerged.

In the following visualization, Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte charts the world’s top economies from 1980 to 2025.

The data for this visualization comes from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025). GDP figures are measured in current U.S. dollars and are not adjusted for inflation.

The United States Remains on Top

Since 1980, the United States has consistently ranked as the world’s largest economy. Its GDP rose from about $2.9 trillion in 1980 to more than $30.6 trillion by 2025. While its global share has fluctuated, the U.S. has maintained its lead due to a large domestic market, deep capital markets, and sustained productivity growth.

China represents the most dramatic structural change in the global economy over the past 45 years.

In 1980, it ranked outside the top five, with GDP just over $300 billion. By 2010, China had already surpassed Germany and Japan, and by 2025 it stands firmly as the world’s second-largest economy at nearly $19.4 trillion.

Japan dominated the global economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s, briefly narrowing the gap with the United States. However, slower growth and demographic headwinds caused it to lose ground, falling to fourth place by 2025.

Europe’s largest economies—Germany, the United Kingdom, and France—have remained among the top 10.

Emerging Markets Gain Ground

Beyond China, several emerging economies climbed into the top ranks. India’s GDP expanded from under $200 billion in 1980 to more than $4.1 trillion in 2025, placing it among the world’s five largest economies.

Outside of the top 10, countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and Türkiye have also moved up the rankings, reflecting faster growth than many advanced economies over the long run.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Global GDP Growth Projections in 2025 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 08:45

Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026

Calculated Risk -

The key reports this week are the December employment report and Housing Starts for September and October.

Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit, November Job Openings, December ISM Manufacturing and December Vehicle Sales.

----- Monday, January 5th -----
Vehicle SalesEarly: Light vehicle sales for December.

The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. 
The dashed line is the current sales rate.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

----- Tuesday, January 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, January 7th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 50,000, up from -32,000 jobs added in November.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.67 million from 7.66 million in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for December.

----- Thursday, January 8th -----
U.S. Trade Deficit 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 205K, up from 199K.

----- Friday, January 9th -----
Employment per month8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%.

There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September and October.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 2000.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January)

12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

Germany's Family Businesses Warn: Taxes, Energy Costs, And Bureaucracy Are Killing Competitiveness

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Family Businesses Warn: Taxes, Energy Costs, And Bureaucracy Are Killing Competitiveness

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

At the turn of the year, the Foundation for Family Businesses, together with the ifo Institute, presented a corporate survey on tax policy and location attractiveness. The result is unequivocal: Germany is too expensive and no longer competitive as a business location.

There is nothing new under the sun. In their year-end Annual Monitor, the Foundation for Family Businesses and the ifo Institute once again went straight to the heart of the matter. A total of 1,705 companies across all sectors and size categories were surveyed on their assessment of current tax policy and Germany’s attractiveness as a business location. The evaluation of this corporate panel—1,358 of which were traditional family-owned businesses—turned out to be devastating, as expected.

Overburdened Labor Factor

More than 80 percent of companies perceive the overall tax and contribution burden—particularly in the area of personnel costs, i.e., wage taxes and social security contributions—as far too high. The heavy burden on the employee side is especially criticized by smaller family-owned businesses. It has become increasingly difficult to grant wage increases when the fiscal authorities take the lion’s share and key performers are bled ever more heavily with each pay raise due to the continuous increase in social security contribution ceilings.

This assessment is shared by Professor Rainer Kirchdörfer, member of the Foundation’s executive board, who comments on the study:
“Our new Annual Monitor shows just how much employers and employees are pulling in the same direction. It is precisely the high taxes on labor that paralyze both sides and drain the joy from performance. High-tax Germany has also lost ground here.”

Two-thirds of surveyed executives complain about excessive income tax rates. Income tax is particularly relevant for partnerships—and by international standards it is clearly too high. A recurring grievance is also the complexity of Germany’s tax system. The familiar quip holds that roughly two-thirds of global tax law literature originates in the Federal Republic. Even if exaggerated, the message is clear: Germany is a bureaucrat’s paradise.

Currently, 5.4 million people work in the public sector—around half a million more than five years ago. This despite technological progress, artificial intelligence, and increasing automation of internal processes.

The Bureaucracy Reduction Classic

A tangible reduction in bureaucracy, including tax law, has been overdue for decades. Yet no federal government dares to tackle this hot potato. German bureaucracy has grown too powerful, evolving at all levels into a state within the state. At the same time, policymakers view the public sector as a kind of buffer for a labor market that has slowly but steadily tipped.

As a reminder: over the past three years, German companies have been forced to create 325,000 additional jobs merely to cope with the ever-expanding bureaucratic workload. The state is effectively outsourcing its ballooning documentation, archiving, and compliance requirements to the private sector.

Ranked second and third among entrepreneurs’ main points of criticism are rising local business taxes (Gewerbesteuer) and energy-related levies. Both factors are likely to play a significant role in 2026. Municipal budgets, paralyzed by a cumulative deficit of €35 billion last year, are virtually screaming for sharp increases in local business tax rates.

This threatens to trigger a tax-driven recessionary spiral initiated by local governments seeking short-term relief—particularly in regions hard hit by the industrial downturn, such as the automotive hubs of Stuttgart, Ingolstadt, and Wolfsburg.

Additional Pressure from Energy Levies

As of January 1, 2026, under the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG), the CO₂ price corridor will rise to between €55 and €65 per ton. This represents another substantial erosion of Germany’s economic substance, as it struggles to keep energy-intensive production in the country amid intensifying competition with China and the United States.

Entrepreneurs’ demands are clear: a reduction in the electricity tax is long overdue as a first step toward restoring the competitiveness of German industry. The abolition of the solidarity surcharge, alongside an accelerated reduction in corporate taxes, also ranks high on the business community’s wish list for the coming year.

Germany is too expensive as a business location by OECD standards. Since 2018, this has also become evident in overall economic productivity, which has stagnated and even declined slightly in recent quarters.

Valid Criticism, But the Root Problem Remains Untouched

There is no question that entrepreneurs are correct in their assessment of fiscal overburdening on companies and private households. The German state has expanded excessively and—given steadily rising public debt—is increasingly living at the expense of future generations.

What is striking, however, is what the study fails to address. Neither the billion-euro follow-up costs of migration into Germany’s welfare system nor the fiscal and real-economic consequences of centrally planned climate policy are included in the assessment. Yet both factors significantly contribute to rising tax burdens and have sustainably weakened Germany’s industrial base.

What has materialized in energy costs—burdens sometimes three times higher than those in competing locations such as France or the United States—must become the subject of a broad public debate if a return to rational economic policy is ever to be possible.

Under the current federal government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, this appears fundamentally out of reach.

If not Germany’s economic middle class, who should initiate such a debate openly and courageously? We are still waiting for the icebreaker capable of overcoming the dogma of the alleged lack of alternatives in climate policy in a practical, rational, and unresentful manner. And it remains all too easy for policymakers, operating in an entrenched mode of accelerated debt accumulation, to align incentive structures and a lavishly funded subsidy machine in such a way that any critical voice from the business sector is ultimately silenced.

In the end, the study delivers a rapid situational assessment from which the familiar criticism emerges—criticism that, at all costs, seeks to avoid a collision with an ideologically hardened climate-socialist policy.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 07:00

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