Intel Reportedly In Early Stage Talks To Make Chips For AMD

Intel’s stock jumped over 7% Wednesday after Semafor reported the company is in early talks to make chips for longtime rival AMD in its foundry business. AMD shares also ticked higher, up more than 1% on Wednesday - and is up nearly 4% in Thursday trade.

Such a deal would be a major boost for Intel’s relatively new manufacturing arm, which has struggled to attract big customers and has been one of the key reasons Wall Street has had trouble getting behind Intel as an investment.

Analysts say landing AMD would not only validate Intel’s technology but also “send a signal to other chip companies” that the firm can handle large-scale production. AMD, for its part, would be entrusting critical chipmaking to its direct competitor—an unusual move given both companies battle in the x86 PC and server markets.

Illustration via TechPowerUp

It remains unclear how much manufacturing AMD would shift from TSMC, its current supplier. Both Intel and AMD declined to comment.

Intel “currently lacks the technology to produce AMD’s most advanced, profitable chips,” Semafor wrote, meaning any potential deal may cover only part of AMD’s manufacturing, and “it is possible that no agreement will be reached.” Some reports suggest the arrangement could even involve a direct investment by AMD, similar to deals struck with other companies. Semafor has also reported Intel is in talks for backing from Apple.

As Tom's Hardware notes; 

In the past several weeks, Intel has seen a flurry of activity and investments. The United States announced a 9.9% ownership stake in Intel, while Softbank bought $2 billion worth of shares. Alongside Nvidia, Intel announced new x86 chips using Nvidia graphics technology, with the graphics giant also purchasing $5 billion in Intel shares. There have also been reports that Intel and Apple have been exploring ways to work together.

Such a partnership with AMD could validate former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger's vision. He had previously expressed interest in building chips for all of the world's major tech companies, including long-time rival AMD. It's unknown if AMD is considering a stock purchase similar to Nvidia.

AMD would be a major get for Intel, the latter of which has talked to many companies in a search for foundry customers. Current Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan has suggested the company could stop offering its 18A node entirely if there isn't enough demand for it.

The news comes as Intel seeks a turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Recent backing from the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank has been seen as a vote of confidence, though Nvidia stopped short of committing to Intel’s foundry. Intel, once dominant in laptop chips, has been “left flat-footed” by Nvidia’s rapid rise in AI.

Intel shares have surged nearly 77% in 2025. Still, doubts persist. As Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon quipped: “If you aren’t sure they’ll come, don’t build it," according to IBD.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 09:40

Tesla Shares Surge To 2025 High After Q3 Deliveries Smash Expectations

Tesla shares jumped 3.5%, rising to a fresh 2025 high and pushing Elon's wealth above $500 billion, after the company reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter delivery figures. Deliveries came in at 497,099 vehicles, a 7.4% increase from a year earlier and smashing Bloomberg consensus estimates of 439,612. The numbers also beat the recently-boosted guidance from Goldman and UBS.

The bulk of the growth came from the company’s mass-market lineup: Model 3/Y deliveries reached 481,166, up 9.4% year-over-year and surpassing expectations of 424,828. Deliveries of Tesla’s other models totaled 15,933, representing a 53% jump from the previous quarter but slightly below estimates of 17,184.

On the production side, Tesla built 447,450 vehicles, down 4.8% from a year earlier and just under the consensus of 450,313. Model 3/Y production totaled 435,826, a 1.8% decline but still ahead of forecasts. Production of other models slipped to 11,624, down 13% from the prior quarter.

The strong delivery numbers likely reflect the pull-forward effect ahead of changes in US tax credits. Federal incentives that provided buyers with up to $7,500 for new EVs and $4,000 for used EVs expired on September 30 under new legislation passed by Congress. Tesla and its rivals had been factoring these credits into competitive lease and purchase offers, boosting demand in the final weeks of the quarter.

As we noted a week ago, Goldman recently raised raised both its delivery estimates and price targets into today's report. UBS analysts also lifted their delivery forecast. "We believe our new forecast is more in line with buy-side expectations in the 470-475k range," UBS analyst Joseph Spak told clients about a week ago.

Spak also predicted the stock wouldn't move much as a result of a beat. He continued, "Despite a print that may be inline with buyside expectations, we tend to find the stock does react to beat/misses vs. the headline number." 

UBS said in their note that a push to take advantage of the tax credit would help delivery numbers: "Strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025. We believe 3Q25 could be the highest quarterly US deliveries since mid-2023 and potentially the highest ever. We believe demand is very likely being pulled forward so we'd expect a q/q drop in 4Q25, even if the new "lower cost" Model Y is introduced."

He also said improved European and China sales, combined with strong delivery growth in Turkey and South Korea, could also help. 

While deliveries beat expectations, investors will be closely watching upcoming earnings results for more clarity on margins, particularly given the production decline and the impact of incentive-driven sales.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 09:19

Even As A Free Man, Ross Ulbricht Still Under Fire

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

In 2009, I received an email from an obviously brilliant young software developer named Ross Ulbricht. We discussed a “venture to create a free market computer simulation based on the Austrian theory.” His idea was to use many of the newest digital tools to create a digital marketplace, one that would experiment with a new form of digital money called Bitcoin. It was obvious from my correspondence that Ross’s interest was entirely in applied economics with an idealistic bent.

The result was the Silk Road, the world’s first distributed marketplace using digital money, existing outside the bounds of physical space and thereby traversing the regulatory limits of nation-state rules. Ross was a builder and admin, not a merchant. The main product that ended up selling on the site was marijuana, then mostly illegal but now widely for sale in every major city. The site had rules and limits but as with all such experiments, it was a work in progress.

That work was massively disrupted on October 1, 2013, when he was surrounded by feds who arrested him and took his laptop. In the trial later, he was declared guilty of distributing narcotics, money laundering, engaging in criminal enterprise, and distribution of fake ID documents. The judge sentenced him to more than two lifetimes in prison. He served 11 years, until Donald Trump commuted the sentence. He now lives a normal life while giving speeches on the ideals that motivated him in the first place.

The incredible feature of this story is that Ross never touched a narcotic. He never hurt anyone (the fake “murder for hire” charges were not raised in trial). What he did was build a website that became a huge marketplace, one that bypassed the cartels and provided peer-to-peer contact between buyer and seller. It was in fact a fascinating experiment, one for the ages. It was the product of a time of over-the-top techno-utopianism infused with a libertarian ethos.

The difference between the pure theorists of this period and Ross is that he wanted to try out what a free market would be like in real life. His motivation was not about money, much less power, but libertarian idealism. He had other partners in the enterprise who were never touched by the feds (probably because they cooperated with them.)

In any case, it was due entirely to the passion and love shown by his mother Lynn Ulbricht that his cause stayed alive and the movement to free him from the cage grew and grew, to the point that Trump himself promised his release upon election. He kept his promise. Now Ross is a folk hero. I will add, too, that he is a very nice person, brilliant and humble. Just imagine that he received two lifetimes in jail for creating a website! Obviously this sentence was deeply unjust.

Why is this crucial to discuss now?

Kamala Harris’s new book criticizes Ross as a “fentanyl dealer” and attacks President Trump for commuting his sentence after he spent 11 years in a high-security prison. The charge is completely untrue. He never dealt fentanyl or any other drug. He made a peer-to-peer website as an experiment in freedom. Such markets still exist on the dark web, so arresting and charging Ross made no difference whatsoever. What happened to him was cruel and capricious, and he has suffered greatly for his mistakes. It is beyond belief that Kamala would say this about such an earnest young man.

She might be heavily misinformed but there is ever less excuse in our times to make such errors, since any fact-check engine could have caught the error in no time. She was just looking for some excuse to attack Trump. But one wonders if it ever occurred to her that Ross is a real person, with a mom and siblings and now a wife and a life. It is inconceivable that she would use her platform now to say such things.

How well I recall those early days of the Silk Road. It was not just an experiment in a free marketplace. It was an opportunity to try out the world’s first truly successful attempt to use the internet to deploy a non-state money. Decades had gone by with failure after failure. Bitcoin was different because it was the first to solve the double-spending problem. It created a property-like object out of 1s and 0s and limited their creation rate so that it could function as a real money.

In 2010, I had my doubts that Bitcoin could work. But by early 2013, I came to understand that this technology had cobbled together the magic combination of factors that led it to become real money: double-key cryptography, a distributed network, a finite and unhackable creation rate, and the capacity for peer-to-peer exchange. In developing a marketplace that accepted it, Ross was engaged in a grand experiment that probably should have won him the Nobel Prize in economics. Instead, he was put in the slammer merely for visionary technological development.

His arrest was something I had not anticipated. I was naive about the power of the state and its agents, how they are skilled at getting insiders to turn against each other, and how they like to find one person to serve as an example to the world. They were anxious to prosecute Ross as a way of humiliating the techno-utopians of the day who believed that the Internet could be used as an experiment in perfect freedom.

There are many grave ironies of this whole period.

Bitcoin is a major market player and no longer lives under a cloud. The crypto industry itself has a market capitalization that is approaching $4 trillion. Remember that Bitcoin was priced at only a few dollars when the Silk Road first opened. And the product that mostly dominated its sales is now available in every major city. I was just in San Francisco where it seems like there is a dispensary on every city block.

I deeply regret what drugs—legal and illegal—have done to our society. Whether it is legally and scientifically approved psych drugs or fentanyl on the streets, no society can function with a substantial part of its population mentally wrecked by this stuff. I feel the same about weed, with many examples of people in my own life who have suffered from terrible addiction. I suspect that Ross agrees with me here. He was never accused of buying or selling a single illicit product, contrary to Kamala’s claims.

What the Silk Road achieved was to remove the cartels from their monopoly on distribution. Surely that is a notable achievement. As much as I would like to see a world without these products, that is not a realistic aim. Getting the high monopoly profits out of the underground markets, however, is a reasonable goal, one that Ross did have some success in achieving. Meanwhile, we seem to be headed to a place where governments are starting to see the point. Even the Trump administration is experimenting with a new government website that will bypass the middlemen and allow direct to consumer sales of prescription medications.

For Ross’s part, he is thrilled to be a free man again. He spends his time influencing others to live better and more centered lives in the real world, applying some beautiful lessons from his many years in prison. He paid a heavy price for his youthful error, and gained some valuable lessons. He deserves better than to be caricatured and smeared in a wicked partisan struggle.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:40

Stocks Hit Record Highs Around The Globe As AI Mania Hits Escape Velocity

US equity futures are higher with tech and small caps both outperforming as the screaming AI euphoria drove global indexes to fresh highs after an OpenAI share sale valued the company at an eye-popping $500 billion, catapulting the firm to become the world’s most valuable startup, surpassing SpaceX. As of 8:00am ET,  S&P futures were 0.2% higher, trading at a fresh all time high, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%, putting the gauge on track for a fifth straight gain. Pre-market, Mag7 tech are mostly higher led by NVDA (+1.3%) and TSLA (+1.5%); global chipmakers soared and energy REIT Fermi jumped for a second day after its IPO. We have also seen overnight outperformance in both European and Asian markets despite relatively muted incremental news flows: Europe’s Stoxx 600 also hit a record after rising 0.8%, led by an advance of more than 2% in technology shares. In Asia, equities rose past last month’s record close as chipmakers rallied. MSCI’s global index also notched a fresh high. Bond yields are unchanged; USD is lower; Oil is lower, while metals are higher. Today's Initial and Continuing Claims data will be delayed due to the shutdown; we should get the final August Durables/Factory orders prints at 10am.

In premarket trading, Mag7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +1.7%, Nvidia +1.3%, Meta +0.7%, Apple +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Alphabet -0.09%, Microsoft -0.2%).

• Absci (ABSI) is up 4% after JPMorgan initiates at overweight, saying the biotech company’s unique expertise in the computational space could change how new therapeutics are found.
• AngioDynamics (ANGO) rises 11% after the medical-device maker boosted its net sales guidance for the full year.
• Edison International (EIX) falls 1.8% after Jefferies downgraded the utility to hold, citing a higher risk profile.
• Equifax (EFX), a credit-reporting company, drops 11% and TransUnion (TRU) falls 10% after Fair Isaac Corp. announced a new program giving mortgage lenders the option to calculate and distribute FICO scores directly to customers. Shares of Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) are up 20%.
• Fermi (FRMI) rises 16% after the Texas-based real estate investment trust rallied 55% in its market debut on Wednesday.
• Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (SHLS) climbs 8% after Barclays upgraded the renewable-energy equipment company to overweight, citing growth potential.
• Stellantis (STLA) gains 7% after the maker of Jeep SUVs reported a gain in third-quarter US deliveries, sparking optimism on the group’s turnaround prospects.

The US govt shutdown quietly entered its shutdown for a second day and markets could care less. Strategists noted that past shutdowns have typically had little macroeconomic impact, and judging by recent history, have actually pushed stocks higher. At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he doesn’t anticipate a long shutdown, adding that layoffs will come if it lasts for days or weeks. 

“This is all very much a storm in a teacup,” wrote Michael Brown, a senior market strategist at Pepperstone. “The government has shut down 20 times in the past, and reopened 20 times as well – this time will not be different.”

OpenAI’s valuation soared to $500 billion after current and former employees sold about $6.6 billion of stock. In wave of good news that swept along semiconductor and AI companies, the ChatGPT owner also forged agreements with South Korean firms. Separately, OpenAI also released a social app for sharing AI Videos and inked a deal with Samsung and Hynix to supply its ambitious Stargate datacenter project. Apple has paused a planned overhaul of its Vision Pro headset to focus on developing smart glasses that can rival Meta’s products.

The AI boom has powered global stocks to successive highs, with a resumption of interest-rate cuts and resilient earnings adding to the bullish momentum. For now, investors also see limited risk from the political impasse in Washington, which has triggered the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.

“The tech sector is so large and it’s doing so well,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “The reason the market is prepared to pay those high valuations for the tech sector is really because we don’t see good growth opportunities outside tech.”

In the latest tariff news, the EU plans to hike duties on its steel imports to 50%, according to a draft proposal. As for macro data, the government shutdown and other challenges at the government statistics bureaus means clear signals about the economy are difficult to assess. 

A relentless buying spree in US equities dominated quarter-end pension rebalancing, overwhelming projected net selling, according to the trading desk at Goldman Sachs. Bank of America derivatives strategists see scope to use options to bet on further gains for tech. If a 45% rally in the sector since early April looks like a bubble, it probably won’t burst any time soon, they said. Also top of mind is the fast-approaching 3Q reporting season. Earnings outlook momentum remains positive although has trended lower in recent weeks, according to Citi’s earnings revisions index.

Turning to the data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data on Friday will likely be delayed, as well as the weekly initial jobless claims numbers usually due Thursdays. Still, figures from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed US employers dialed back hiring plans in September, even though they also announced fewer job cuts. Even without the data however, money markets are almost fully pricing a quarter-point Fed cut at the end of the month and see an 80% chance of another in December to support the labor market.

“If you really dig into the labor market data, it’s not just an AI structural story, it’s not just a lower immigration story, you are seeing that cyclical demand weakness,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The clearest part to this puzzle is wage growth, there is a lack of wage growth in the US.”

European stocks rally to a new record on a boost for tech and car stocks. Tech optimism is bolstered by OpenAI raising funds to value the firm at $500 billion. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.7% and the Euro Stoxx 50 by 1.3% while a gauge of EM stocks hit the highest since 2021 on the AI-driven optimism. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Stellantis shares gain as much as 7.6% in Milan after the maker of Jeep SUVs reported a gain in third-quarter US deliveries, sparking optimism about turnaround prospects.
• European semiconductor stocks lead a broader market rally on Thursday, following gains among US peers late in Wednesday’s trading.
• Rational shares rise as much as 7.4% after the professional kitchen equipment maker was upgraded by Barclays on valuation grounds, while Bernstein lifted its price target to a new Street-high.
• Tesco shares rise as much as 4.2% after Britain’s biggest supermarket reported first-half profit that beat estimates and boosted its adjusted operating profit forecast for the year.
• Hochtief gains as much as 6.8%, hitting a new record high, as BofA double-upgrades to buy from underperform, citing the construction and infrastructure firm’s attractive growth story.
• Novo rises as much as 4.8% while Roche gains as much as 1.5% after the pair were upgraded to buy from hold at HSBC, while AbbVie was downgraded to a hold from buy.
• Piaggio shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most since late July, after Italian Cycle and Motorcycle Association data showed a rebound in the two-wheeler market.
• Sobi climbs as much as 5.2%, in a fourth straight day of gains, as Danske Bank says there may be scope for the Swedish biopharma company to upgrade its guidance at the upcoming third-quarter results.
• Morgan Sindall jumps 13% to a record high as the construction group says it is performing “significantly ahead of previous expectations” after business at its Fit Out division continued to strengthen.

Earlier in the session, Asian shares advanced for a fourth day, turbocharged by technology firms after a deal between OpenAI and South Korean chipmakers brightened the outlook of artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.2%, the most in nearly four weeks. TSMC was among the biggest contributors, along with Alibaba and SK Hynix.  The Kospi was the region’s top performer, jumping 2.7% to a fresh record, following Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s deal to supply chips to OpenAI’s Stargate project. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Australia and Singapore all climbed over 1%. The tech rally has been underpinning the recent strength of Asian stocks, as investors brushed off geopolitical risks and the first US government shutdown in seven years. An informal survey by Bloomberg also shows that strategists expect the region to outperform the US in the current quarter on attractive valuations and earnings prospects. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped as trading resumed after a public holiday. Alibaba was among the lead gainers after JPMorgan boosted its price target by 45%, citing an improved outlook for cloud revenue and growing synergy between its AI and e-commerce operations. Mainland Chinese and Indian markets were shut for a holiday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%; kiwi and the yen outperforming.

In rates, treasuries mostly held Wednesday’s gains, with the yield on 10-year notes steady at 4.09%. After Fed rate-cut expectations pulled yields down from January’s high near 4.80%, traders are now contending with a temporary blackout in economic data amid the government shutdown.

In commodity markets, gold extended its record-breaking rally while oil fell for a fourth consecutive day. West Texas Intermediate slid toward $61 a barrel, touching the lowest level in four months as expectations of OPEC+ restoring more idled supply deepened fears of a global glut. 

Looking at today's calendar, the 8:30am jobless claims data will be delayed. Factory orders, durable goods and cap goods for August are all due at 10 am New York, but the government shutdown may affect the release of economic data

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
• DAX +1.3%
• CAC 40 +1.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.09%
• VIX -0.2 points at 16.06
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1198.34
• euro +0.2% at $1.1757
• WTI crude -0.5% at $61.48/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The shutdown entered a second day with little sign of a breakthrough. The White House is looking to cancel infrastructure projects in Democratic-leaning states. Jobless claims data won’t be released today, a Labor Department spokesman said. BBG
• The US will lose $15 billion in GDP each week during a shutdown, Politico reported, citing a White House memo. BBG
• Global chipmakers saw their market value soar as investors rushed to get exposure to artificial intelligence, the latest sign of a frenetic bull run that is pushing tech stocks to all-time highs. The combined market capitalization of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index and a gauge tracking Asia chip stocks went up by just over $200 billion in the latest session. BBG
• Trump said Wednesday that soybeans will be a “major” topic in his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later this month, pledging aid for American farmers after Beijing halted purchases of the staple amid trade tensions. Nikkei
• OpenAI’s valuation reached $500 billion, a person familiar said, surpassing SpaceX as the world’s largest startup. Employees sold about $6.6 billion of stock to investors including Joshua Kushner’s Thrive Capital and SoftBank. BBG
• Apple (AAPL) has shelved its headset revamp to prioritise Meta-style AI glasses: Bloomberg.
• The U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, American officials said, as the Trump administration weighs sending Kyiv powerful weapons that could put in range more targets within Russia. WSJ
• The EU is planning to join US and Canadian efforts to tackle cheap Chinese steel imports by reducing import quotas and increasing tariffs. The European industry commissioner promised industry bosses and unions to levy tariffs of up to 50% on foreign steel at an emergency meeting on Wed. FT
• Japanese business mood is improving and corporate profits remain high even as U.S. tariffs weigh on exports, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said, signalling confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike was falling into place. RTRS
• Japan’s bonds fell after an auction of 10-year notes saw the bid-to-cover ratio drop from last month, in a show of weak demand. BBG
• Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said he is starting to get more concerned about inflation moving the wrong way and that counting on it being transitory makes him nervous. He noted that with the BLS down, there are limited indicators on inflation, said he hopes tariff impacts will prove transitory, and added that while the underlying economy is strong enough to allow rates to come down a fair amount, the Fed should be careful: RTRS
• Trump's Administration is reportedly working with Pharma, AI, Energy, Ship Building, Battery Products and other sectors: Reuters 

US Govt Shutdown

• US President Trump plans to cancel Western hydrogen hubs amid the government shutdown fight, according to Bloomberg.
• US President Trump posted that Republicans must use the Democrat-forced closure to clear out dead wood, waste, and fraud, adding that billions of dollars can be saved, via Truth Social.
• S&P warned that the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with extended delays in key economic data releases potentially complicating Fed monetary policy decisions. The agency estimated the shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.1–0.2 ppts per week.

Trade/Tariffs

• Preparations for US President Trump’s visit to Asia have ground to a halt amidst the government shutdown, Nikkei reported, with officials at the embassies of Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea scrambling to gather information ahead of his visit in just over three weeks.
• South Korea’s Foreign Minister said South Korea and the US have broadly reached an agreement in the security sector, Yonhap reported.
• Brazil and the US are working to arrange an in-person meeting between Presidents Lula and Trump, according to Bloomberg.
• Japan and US reportedly arranging a visit by US President Trump to Japan on October 27, according to Japanese press.
• The EU plans to hike steel import tariffs to 50%, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were firmer, with gains across the board following a positive handover from Wall Street, where tech outperformed, whilst the US jobs reports this week look set to be delayed after CR votes failed again on Wednesday, as expected. ASX 200 was propped up by strength in gold and mining names while defensive sectors lagged, with no reaction seen to the RBA Financial Stability Review, which suggested Australia’s financial system remains well positioned to navigate a period of elevated global uncertainty. Nikkei 225 saw upside led by metals and pharma stocks, though gains were capped as the JPY trimmed earlier losses. Hang Seng conformed to regional gains and played catch-up to yesterday’s price action during the National Day closure, though momentum was limited by the absence of Stock Connect, with Mainland China remaining shut until next Thursday. KOSPI outperformed and hit a fresh record high, overlooking stronger-than-expected CPI, with gains driven by surges in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics after both firms partnered with OpenAI under the Stargate initiative. Sentiment was also supported by news that South Korea and the US agreed on a basic security framework.

Top Asian News

• The RBA’s Financial Stability Review said Australia’s financial system remains well positioned to navigate elevated global uncertainty, with the largest risks to stability coming from abroad, including high and rising government debt in major economies, stretched asset valuations and leverage in global markets, and heightened geopolitical and operational risks. The RBA said most households with mortgages are keeping up with repayments and have built savings buffers, many businesses have established financial buffers, and Australian banks continue to maintain high levels of capital and liquidity. It underscored the importance of maintaining prudent lending standards and strengthening operational resilience via the RBA.
• A BoK official said the significant impact of US tariffs on exports has not yet been observed, but effects are expected to become more apparent next year, according to Reuters.
• BoJ's Uchida says Tankan survey showed positive business sentiment as US tariff outlook recedes; BoJ to raise rates if economic outlook is realised.

European bourses are mostly higher as the solid start to Q4 continues, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%. FTSE 100 -0.1% is the main outlier after the healthcare and energy-led gains seen on Wednesday. From a macro perspective, it is very much a case of more of the same as incremental drivers remain light aside from the overhang of the US government shutdown. Sectors mostly firmer, Tech outperforms after the strength on Wall St.; Autos firmer with heavyweight Ferrari supported by a broker upgrade. Luxury also strong after Brunello Cucinelli numbers, supporting peers.

Top European News

• BoE DMP: Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations also remained unchanged at 2.9% in the three months to September.

FX

• DXY is currently lower for a 5th consecutive session. Continued focus on the shutdown, which has trimmed the data docket, as such other prints e.g. the Chicago Fed measure may draw greater attention. DXY has delved as low as 97.53 but is holding above yesterday's trough @ 97.46.
• Euro is a touch firmer after a choppy Wednesday. Specifics very light. EUR/USD is currently contained within yesterday's 1.1715-79 range.
• Sterling also slightly firmer against the UST but relatively even against the EUR. The latest BoE DMP report showed firms year-ahead own-price inflation was unchanged at 3.7%, whilst expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4%. Cable has moved back onto a 1.35 handle but is yet to approach yesterday's best @ 1.3527.
• JPY firmer, with USD/JPY down to a 146.61 low before returning to a 147 handle. Attention on BoJ's Uchida who noted that the Bank will keep hiking rates if the economic outlook is realised.
• Antipodeans both in the green but the Kiwi is currently leading. Specifics light thus far, particularly with China away.

Fixed Income

• JGBs hit overnight by a weak 10yr tap. No followthrough to remarks from BoJ's Uchida thereafter, though his positive lens on the Tankan survey underscores the narrative that a hike at the October meeting is the more likely outcome as things stand.
• USTs contained in a very narrow range. Specifics unsurprisingly light with the US government shutdown still underway. Currently, USTs chop around the unchanged mark in a 112-25+ to 112-30+ band, entirely within but at the upper end of yesterday’s 112-12 to 112-31 parameters.
• EGBs saw a slightly softer start to the day, though within recent parameters. Specifics light aside from supply. Overall, the auctions were slightly soft but still the passing of the morning's docket was sufficient to bring the benchmarks back to earlier highs and marginally firmer, with gains of a handful of ticks in Bunds at best.
• Gilts spent the morning near-enoguh flat into supply. A few updates around the Autumn Budget beforehand, but nothing that shifts the dial. Supply on face value was ok, though the cover was the lowest since 2022.
• Japan sold JPY 2.6tln 10yr JGB; b/c 3.34x (prev. 3.92x), average yield 1.6350% (prev. 1.6120%)

Fixed Income

• Crude spent the morning in a thin c. USD 0.60/bbl bound. However, the complex came under some modest pressure to respective lows of USD 61.22/bbl and USD 64.80/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively, nothing fresh behind the pressure.
• Overnight, a spike to session highs occured around an hour after a more modest move higher on reports in the WSJ that the US is to provide Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia, and are asking NATO allies to provide similar insight.
• Spot gold taking a slight breather from its recent rally, though it remains near the USD 3895/oz ATH into a thinner than usual docket.
• Base metals continue to gain despite the absence of its largest buyer, China. 3M LME Copper extended above USD 10.40k/t during APAC trade, a move that has continued to a USD 10.51k/t peak.
• Goldman Sachs said upside risks have intensified further for their mid-2026 and Dec-2026 gold price forecasts of USD 4,000/oz and USD 4,300/oz respectively, and reiterated that gold remains their highest-conviction long commodity recommendation, according to Reuters.
• Kazakhstan's Energy Minister says they are doing everything possible to implement compensation plan; sees Kazakhstan oil output at 90mln tons in 2026

Geopolitics

• The US will provide Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia, and US officials are asking NATO allies to provide similar support, via WSJ.
• The G7 agreed on the importance of trade measures, including tariffs and import–export bans, to curb Russian revenue, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 7:30 am: Sep Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 13.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep 27 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 218k
• 8:30 am: Sep 20 Continuing Claims, est. 1931k, prior 1926k
• 10:00 am: Aug Factory Orders, est. 1.4%, prior -1.3%
• 10:00 am: Aug F Durable Goods Orders, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
• 10:00 am: Aug F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Aug F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.58%, prior 0.6%
• 10:00 am: Aug F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%

Central Bank Speakers

• 10:30 am: Fed’s Logan Speaks at University of Texas conference
• 2:30 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Fox Business

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

US markets kicked off Q4 as they ended Q3, with the S&P 500 (+0.34%) reaching another record high despite the shutdown noise and an ADP report showing a contraction in private payrolls. At the same time, fresh fears over the US labour market saw Treasury yields decline sharply as investors priced in more rate cuts. Europe also saw an optimistic session, as positive data helped to push the STOXX 600 (+1.15%) to a new record of its own, finally surpassing its previous peak in early March. Remember that German fiscal stimulus started this week and from my experience of talking to investors around the world in recent weeks, people have largely forgotten about the story, so once you see the impact in the data we might be set for further advances in German and European risk assets all other things being equal. 

Meanwhile, the US shutdown remains a huge story, and there’s still no sign of a climbdown from either side. Yesterday the continuing resolution proposal that was earlier approved by Republicans in the House again failed to muster the 60 voters necessary to override the filibuster in the Senate. Just as the previous day, the vote ended five votes short at 55-45 as three Democrats supported the bill while Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky was the lone Republican to vote against. We are unlikely to get another vote today as we have Yom Kippur with the Senate traditionally not sitting given how many of its members celebrate the day.   

In terms of expectations, the current view on Polymarket is that it’ll likely be resolved in the next two weeks, with a 34% prospect of the shutdown lasting beyond October 15. Meanwhile, we heard that the administration was using the shutdown to halt federal funding for infrastructure and energy projects in New York City and more than a dozen Democrat-leaning states.

From a market perspective, the most tangible impact is that we won’t get the weekly jobless claims data today, or the jobs report tomorrow. So that’s led investors to put a lot more focus on the private sector data releases, which are generating an outsize market impact as a result. In fact, yesterday we had the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which as we all know pretty much always comes out two days before payrolls, and isn’t too much of a market mover. But this time around, the print caused a significant reaction, as it underwhelmed at -32k (vs. +51k expected), and it raised fears that the next jobs report (whenever we get it) would disappoint like the last two. So investors dialled up their expectations for rate cuts yesterday, with the amount priced in by the June meeting up a sizeable +7.7bps on the day to 90.7bps. And in turn, front-end Treasuries posted a decent decline, with the 2yr yield (-7.4bps) falling to 3.53%, and the 10yr yield (-5.2bps) falling to 4.10%. We are broadly unchanged in Asia trading.  

In the latest Fed news, the Supreme Court rejected President Trump's demand to immediately remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her post. Cook can thus remain in her post at least until the Supreme Court hears the arguments in the case in January. So that eased some immediate concerns about White House influence over the Fed. 

The ADP release initially weighed on equities, but the S&P 500 again recovered as the day went on to close +0.34% higher. In part that was as the weakness in the ADP report wasn’t echoed elsewhere, and the ISM manufacturing came in broadly as expected at 49.1 (vs. 49.0 expected). New orders disappointed (48.9 vs 50.0 expected) but the employment component surprised to the upside (45.3 vs 44.3 expected) and prices paid fell to an 8-month low of 61.9 (vs 62.7 expected). While most of the S&P 500 were lower on the day, specific sectors helped drive the overall advance. Tech outperformance helped the Mag-7 (+0.61%) to a new all-time high, while the healthcare sector (+3.01%) was the outstanding performer in the S&P. That followed news the previous evening that Pfizer had negotiated a 3-year reprieve on pharma tariffs with the White House, leaving investors more confident that US drugmakers would be able to avoid major levies. Pfizer rose +6.79%, with other major pharma companies including Ely Lilly (+8.18%) and Merck (+7.39%) also seeing outsized gains. 

Over in Europe, there was an even more robust tone, with equities rising across the board. So that saw the STOXX 600 (+1.15%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.03%) both hit new highs, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.41%) moved up to a post-2007 high as well. In part, sentiment was lifted by some robust numbers from the final manufacturing PMIs. So the Euro Area number was revised up three-tenths from the flash print to 49.8, and the German number was revised up a full point to 49.5. 

Alongside the PMIs, the latest Euro Area inflation numbers also settled in line with expectations, which eased fears that the ECB might need to pivot more hawkishly. So the flash CPI print was at +2.2%, and the core CPI print at +2.3%, only modestly above the ECB’s target. In turn, that helped front-end sovereign bonds to rally, with yields on 2yr bunds (-0.9bps) and OATs (-1.2bps ) moving lower, though yields were little changed at the 10yr point (+0.1bps for bunds, -0.4bps for OATs).

Italian bonds outperformed (-0.8bps on 10yr) as Bloomberg reported that the country’s draft budget put the deficit at 3% of GDP already this year, matching the EU limit. If realised, that would be the first sub-3% deficit since 2019 before the Covid pandemic. It also contrasts with the French situation, where even former PM Bayrou’s proposals to reach a 3% deficit by 2029 were unable to pass. So that’s coincided with the Italian 10yr yield falling beneath France’s in recent weeks, and yesterday it closed 0.4bps beneath France’s.

Asian equity markets are rallying this morning with the KOSPI (+3.01%) standing out as the top performer, reaching a record high, propelled by significant increases in Samsung Electronics, which is surging +4.50% to approach a six-year peak, and SK Hynix soaring +10.69% to a record high. This is following their preliminary agreement to supply chips to the artificial intelligence leader OpenAI. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.32%) is also trading significantly higher after resuming trading post holiday helped by a rally in key Chinese internet stocks. Mainland China remains closed. In other markets, the Nikkei (+0.89%) is also climbing along with the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.08%), supported by robust performance in local mining stocks. Meanwhile, trading volumes across the region have remained subdued due to a week-long holiday in mainland Chinese markets. S&P 500 (+0.10%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.19%) futures are also both edging up. 

In early morning data, South Korea’s consumer inflation accelerated in September, rising by +2.1% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the +2.0% forecast, and recovering from a nine-month low of +1.7% recorded the previous month. 

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Logan, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Makhlouf and Villeroy, and BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:22

Low-Speed Collision Between Two Delta Jets At LaGuardia

A low-speed collision between two Delta Air Lines regional jets occurred in the overnight hours on a taxiway at New York's LaGuardia Airport.

*TWO DELTA JETS COLLIDE AT SLOW SPEED AT LAGUARDIA:ABC AFFILIATE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2025

Endeavor Flight 5155 was taxiing for departure when its wing struck the cockpit of Flight 5047, which had just arrived from Charlotte, North Carolina. Flight 5155 was preparing to depart for Roanoke, Virginia.

"We have two CRJs on (taxiway) M that collided," one of the pilots of Flight 5047 told LaGuardia ground controller in recorded audio found on website LiveATC.net. The pilot continued, "Their right wing clipped our nose and the cockpit wind screens."

Delta responded to the incident, saying, "Delta teams at our New York-LaGuardia hub are working to ensure our customers are taken care of after two Delta Connection aircraft operated by Endeavor Air were involved in a low-speed collision during taxi. Delta will work with all relevant authorities to review what occurred as safety of our customers and people comes before all else. We apologize to our customers for the experience." 

The incident occurred at around 9:56 p.m. local time. The pilot in command of Flight 5155 is ultimately responsible for the low-speed collision. No deep dives (yet) from internet sleuths to suggest DEI was involved…

As a reminder, regional airlines are often operated by younger or less-experienced pilots (remember this) who are building flight hours before transitioning to major carriers and larger aircraft, such as the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:20

Boeing Gets Contract To Replace Bunker Busting Bombs The US Dropped On Iran

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Boeing is set to receive a contract worth up to $123 million to replace the massive 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs that the US dropped on Iranian nuclear facilities in June as part of the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

On June 22, US B-2 Spirit bombers dropped 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites, marking the first time the weapon was used in combat. A US submarine also fired Tomahawk missiles in strikes on an Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan.

DoD image

The attack, dubbed "Operation Midnight Hammer," was launched on behalf of Israel. The Bloomberg report said that a Pentagon budget document from August says that funds are being shifted from operations and maintenance accounts to Air Force munitions procurement as "funds are required to replace GBU-57 munitions expended in Operation Midnight Hammer in support of Israel."

Replacing the MOPs is just a fraction of the cost of the war against Iran, as the US used a significant number of interceptors to defend Israel throughout the 12 days.

US officials told The Wall Street Journal that the US fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors during the war, accounting for about one-quarter of the Pentagon’s total stock of the interceptors and costing about $2 billion.

The US military also engaged in its largest use of Patriot missiles to repel the Iranian attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which Iran launched in retaliation for the bombing of its nuclear sites.

Bloomberg previously reported that the Pentagon was planning to spend at least $3.5 billion replenishing weapons it had used defending Israel before the 12-Day War.

Stillframe showing test of GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)

Most of the cost was related to the US defense of Israel when Iran launched an attack in April 2024 in retaliation for Israel bombing its consulate in Damascus.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:00

Medvedev Again Trolls Trump: US Submarines A 'Black Cat In A Dark Room'

Outspoken Russian hawk and firebrand Dmitri Medvedev has not stopped trolling Trump over the US nuclear submarine deployment, and the US President's annoyance over the issue continues to show.

The former Russian president and current Security Council Deputy Chairman has said in fresh remarks tinged with sarcasm that the situation brings to mind the saying about a black cat in a dark room.

"Donald Trump is once again talking about the submarines he moved ‘over to the coast of Russia," this time noting that they are 'totally' undetectable," he wrote on social media.

That's when he joked: "It's hard to find a black cat in a dark room, especially if there is no cat" - suggesting the notion that American nuclear subs are patrolling waters off Russia is a ruse.

AFP/Getty Images

This was an apparent response to Trump's words to a large gathering of US generals and admirals gathered from across the world at Quantico, wherein the US commander-in-chief boasted he had moved "a submarine or two" to the coast of Russia, before saying the word "nuclear" can never be said.

"I call it the N word. There are two N words, and you can't use either of them," he said. All of this hearkens back to the initial very public spat between Trump and Medvedev. To review of the early August exchange:

The day before, Trump had issued an ultimatum to Russia: If it does not agree to a ceasefire by next Friday, August 8, he will impose a package of economic sanctions.

The next day, Medvedev posted on social media, describing Trump’s threat as “a step towards war”. He wrote that Trump was “playing the ultimatum game with Russia”.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump responded: “Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.”

Thankfully it has all so far been confined to social media barbs, and not any clear instance of either side's strategic forces being placed on emergency alert.

The US Navy's submarine fleet moves across the world mostly undetectable, and ideally at least - untraceable. But Medvedev is claiming Trump's boasts concerning a pair of nuclear submarines is empty and without evidence.

NOW - Trump says he's moved "a submarine or two" off the coast of Russia, "it's just lurking." pic.twitter.com/NkJi6iefxB

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) September 30, 2025

However, hopefully he doesn't provoke Trump too much at this ultra-sensitive moment of soaring tensions between Moscow and NATO. Of note is that Trump in his Tuesday speech at Quantico said that the US is about 20 years ahead of Russia in terms of nuclear technology and development.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 07:15