Seagate, Western Digital Crater After Toshiba Breaks Hard-Drive "Supply Discipline" Pact

For most of 2026, the bull case for the HDD duopoly could be summarized in one sentence: nobody is building new factories. On Friday, someone did.

Shares of Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) tumbled more than 10% on Friday, standing out like a sore thumb on a day when the Nasdaq hit all-time highs, after Nikkei reported that Toshiba plans to double its hard disk drive production capacity to grab a bigger slice of the AI data center storage boom.

This is how Goldman's TMT desk summarized the Nikkei story first thing in the morning (full note available to pro subs):

Japanese technology group Toshiba plans to double production capacity for hard disk drives used in artificial intelligence data centers within fiscal 2027 as the AI boom propels data storage demand. The company will invest roughly 60 billion yen ($380 million) to expand facilities in the Philippines... The Japanese player's share by storage capacity stands at just over 10%, but it aims to reach 30% in the medium term. The Philippine expansion marks the company's first major HDD investment in around five years. Along with adding production lines at the plant, Toshiba will handle new products that increase per-unit memory capacity by as much as 40%.

By midday, Goldman's US equities desk flagged the "memory names, WDC (-10.9%) and STX (-11.6%)" as the "standout laggards" in an otherwise green tape, where AI winners were up 1.4% and NDX and NVDA had just printed all-time highs.

To be sure, a 10% drop is just a flesh wound for stocks that have tripled. Even after Friday's puke, STX is still up some 208% YTD and WDC is up 141%, compared to a "mere" 22% for the Nasdaq 100.

But when you're priced for perfection, it's not the size of the hit that matters, it's where it lands.

The One Thing That Wasn't Supposed To Happen

Recall that the entire HDD up-cycle (as well as memory, chips, etc., pretty much everything in the semiconductor commodity chain) has been built on the premise of supply discipline, i.e., that none of the three remaining hard drive makers would add unit capacity, and that all exabyte growth would come from cramming more terabytes into each drive. Here is how Bernstein put it after hosting Seagate management on a non-deal roadshow in August (emphasis ours):

None of STX, WDC, or Toshiba are adding drive unit capacity, keeping industry-wide HDD supply structurally disciplined. Seagate management explained that its factories are effectively full, and rather than expanding units, management is targeting roughly 25% CAGR in nearline exabyte shipments purely by increasing capacity per drive via HAMR... building a new factory would take at least two years, which management has no plans to do.

Bernstein then went on to make STX its top pick precisely because "the broader industry's inability to scale supply keeps supply disciplined."

Well, oops: as of this morning, a third of "the broader industry" just announced it is scaling supply.

Regular readers will recall that we have seen this movie before. Back in May, in "China Begins Flooding The Market With DRAM And NAND Chips", we noted that Seagate's CEO had told JPMorgan that building new factories would "take too long," and warned that once someone else steps in to fill the supply gap, the supply tightness that justified the memory ETF rally would collapse. That time it was CXMT and YMTC on the memory side, which is only getting started with the old Chinese "capture market share by dumping products at below market prices" trick. This time it's an old friend in spinning rust, and it happens to be in the Philippines rather than Hefei.

And yes, the timing is apt for another reason. Rosenblatt points out that hyperscalers are now negotiating long-term agreements (LTAs) extending into 2029-2031, and Toshiba's expansion "introduces a credible medium-term supply risk, giving customers incremental negotiating leverage." Evercore adds that while Seagate "has allocated the majority of its nearline exabytes into calendar year 2028," Western Digital is still "negotiating long-term agreements extending to calendar year 2031." Put differently: 2027-28 pricing is largely locked in. What the market is repricing is the back end of the curve, which, for stocks trading on out-year earnings power, is the part that matters.

"Overdone"... Says Everyone With A Buy Rating

Predictably, the sell-side, which is unanimously bullish - and very wrong today - on both names, rushed to defend the duopoly. The best arguments:

• Citi (Buy, WDC PT $740, STX PT $1,300) argues the bottleneck isn't Toshiba's factory but its suppliers: "Unlike STX and WDC, Toshiba does not internally source their own media and heads," so "in order to double their current EB capacity they would also need their external component suppliers to also significantly raise capacity – which we believe could limit the impact of total EB supplied to the market."
• Morgan Stanley (Overweight, buying the dip) says "the gap between HDD supply and demand through calendar 2028 still looks wider than Toshiba's planned addition," and notes Toshiba lacks leading-edge capacity and heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology.
• Rosenblatt (Buy, WDC PT $800, STX PT $1,400) reads the news as "more about Toshiba reclaiming lost market share rather than the stated 30% market share ambitions," and continues "to see support for sustained pricing power from a worsening supply demand imbalance due to AI."
• Bloomberg Intelligence says the plan "looks more like validation of stronger AI and data-center storage demand than a near-term supply threat."

Translation: Street targets now sit 50% to 90% above Friday's price, which is either a screaming buy signal, or more correctly, a reminder that price targets tend to follow price, not the other way around.

Goldman, for its part, didn't need to rush out a defense because it already had one on file. At last month's Communacopia conference, Goldman's James Schneider came away from Seagate CFO Gianluca Romano's presentation with three takeaways:

1. Seagate sees strong demand trends as continuing to support pricing uplift and margins through FY27;
2. HAMR volumes well on track to cross over PMR by the end of calendar 2026;
3. The company expects to continue high-yield debt retirement and pivot to share repurchases.

And just this week, Goldman's Korea memory team, reading across from Micron's results, said it expects "2027 and 2028 memory S/D to be much tighter than 2026," with customers "requesting longer duration and larger supply" agreements. Not exactly the backdrop for a glut.

The HAMR Moat

The real question is whether Toshiba's doubling matters as much as the stock reaction suggests. Some napkin math: going from "just over 10%" of industry exabytes to roughly double that by FY27 adds something like 10% to total industry exabyte supply, spread over two years. Meanwhile, Seagate alone is targeting ~25% nearline exabyte growth per year through HAMR. In other words, Toshiba's plan sounds big in a headline, but in exabyte terms it's a rounding error relative to what the HAMR transition is already adding, if, that is, Toshiba's head and media suppliers cooperate (see Citi above).

Which brings us to the part of the story the market may be glossing over: this isn't a level playing field. Seagate is the only player shipping HAMR at scale, and as Bernstein showed, its areal density lead already translates into faster exabyte growth than WDC...

... and, per Bernstein's forecasts, a gross margin that crosses above WDC's in FY27 and keeps climbing toward the mid-60s.

Which is also why Bernstein, back in August, said that while "a rising tide is lifting all boats," STX's HAMR lead "is why it is our top pick." If the tide is now going to recede a bit as Toshiba adds supply, the boat with the weakest areal density roadmap is the one most exposed. Hint: it's not Seagate, which may explain why WDC is now down more from its June peak than STX.

Meanwhile, The Picks And Shovels Rally

One more thing: equipment names catching a bid on the news included Veeco (+11%), whose data storage business sells ion beam deposition and etch tools used to make HDD read/write heads, i.e., a direct beneficiary of anyone (Toshiba or its suppliers) adding head capacity. Aixtron (+7%) also rallied, although its MOCVD tools are mostly used for compound semiconductors (GaN, SiC, optoelectronics), so the HDD link there is tenuous at best.

Bottom Line

The analysts are probably right that Toshiba's ¥60 billion won't put a dent in HDD pricing through 2028: the volumes are sold, the LTAs are signed, and Toshiba still needs someone to sell it heads and platters. But the market wasn't pricing the next two years; it was pricing a decade of monopoly-like discipline in an oligopoly of three.

The lesson from today is one which the rest of the world (and especially European car makers) are painfully familiar with: in commodity hardware, the cure for high prices is high prices, and sooner or later somebody in Asia builds a factory.

Whether this is the start of that cycle or just another buyable dip in an AI super-cycle (the sell-side which stands to make a killing the longer the AI bubble rolls on unanimously votes for the latter, understandably) will depend on one thing: whether Seagate and WDC respond with capacity plans of their own. If they do, the "supply discipline" thesis is over. If they don't, Toshiba just bought itself some market share at the top of the cycle.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 15:47

"Told You To F--k Yourself": GOP Senator Tells Trump Off In Profanity-Laced Leaked Texts

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) unloaded on President Donald Trump in a series of profanity-laced private text messages that are now spilling into public view as the retiring Republican prepares to release a tell-all book about his battles with the president and MAGA world.

The fiery exchanges, revealed in reporting on Tillis' forthcoming memoir, How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents, show the North Carolina senator speaking to Trump in remarkably confrontational terms.

"I still want to help but I don't take this bullshit from anyone, including you Mr. President," Tillis wrote in a May 22 message, according to the texts published by POLITICO.

"Save that shit for the cowards who don't care if you fail," the retiring senator continued. "I care if you fail and right now we are failing."

In a June 6 message, the senator pushed back against the suggestion that Trump had threatened him with a Republican primary challenge.

"If you had ever threatened me directly with a primary, I would have immediately told you to fuck yourself, and I would have announced my retirement immediately," Tillis wrote in another stunning text.

"Save those threats and head games for cowards and fools," the outgoing lawmaker added.

Notably, POLITICO did not publish Trump's replies or the preceding messages that prompted Tillis' angry responses.

Tillis announced in June 2025 that he would not seek reelection after opposing Trump's sweeping reconciliation legislation. The president blasted the senator in a Truth Social post as a "talker and complainer, NOT A DOER!" and publicly floated supporting a primary challenger.

Tillis raised eyebrows when he held up Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, refusing to support him until the Department of Justice ended its investigation into then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Tillis dropped his blockade after the probe was closed in April.

Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman endorsed by Trump, is running to replace Tillis in North Carolina's open Senate seat against former Gov. Roy Cooper (D).

    OCTOBER ONLY.$10 OFFYOUR NEXT ORDER.$30 min. Ends Oct 31. One per customer.GET MY $10 OFF →Signs you up for ZeroHedge Store emails. Can't be combined. Every order helps support ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 15:25

Iran's Disappearing Oil Is Becoming Everyone's Problem

Authored by Natalia Katona via OilPrice.com,

Iranian oil is disappearing from the market just as its biggest buyer returns for more. China's recovering crude demand is colliding with the loss of a supplier that sustained its independent refiners through the crisis, forcing them to compete for increasingly expensive alternatives. The consequences reach beyond China: every replacement barrel tightens supplies for other buyers, while Tehran faces a growing incentive to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which is now carrying an unexpectedly strong 13 million barrels a day (just 5 million below pre-crisis level), while its own oil remains trapped.

Iranian crude has long been an underestimated part of the global oil balance. After Bashar al-Assad's government fell in December 2024, breaking the political relationship that sustained Iranian shipments to Syria, China became Iran's only crude buyer - in 2025, it received an average of 1.4 million b/d. The war initiated by the US and Israel in late February initially made Iran even more important to Chinese buyers: while Tehran blocked other tankers from crossing Hormuz, its own cargoes passed freely, lifting Chinese intake of Iranian oil to around 1.76 million b/d in April.

That competitive edge ended with the US blockade announced on April 13. Loaded tankers could no longer leave the Gulf, while empty vessels could not enter. Loadings at Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, collapsed from 1.8 million b/d in March to 260,000 b/d in May. A June 17 memorandum allowing Iranian cargoes to pass for 60 days offered temporary relief: loadings recovered to 740,000 b/d in June and 890,000 b/d in July. But the reprieve expired in August, shipments slumped again to 250,000 b/d, and no Iranian loadings were observed in the Gulf in September.

The more important part of the story, however, was unfolding outside the Strait. Iran had accumulated a vast floating stockpile that allowed deliveries to China to continue even when fresh cargoes could not leave the Gulf. In mid-April, that cushion stood at about 160 million barrels, spread across waters around South, Southeast and East Asia. Drawing on those stocks, China still imported 1.37 million b/d of Iranian oil in May, just 10% below February's level. But the buffer was shrinking; floating storage fell to 106 million barrels by mid-June before the temporary reopening replenished it to 128 million by mid-July.

That replenishment of available floaters has since stopped. China still received 980,000 b/d of Iranian crude in August, but only 475,000 b/d in September, with arrivals ceasing from September 26 (all of the last arriving cargoes had been loaded in June).

Iran still has around 86 million barrels on the water, the lowest volume since January 2025. Yet 23 million barrels (more than a quarter) are trapped inside the Gulf. The total has barely changed since Chinese arrivals have wound down to an almost complete halt over the past two weeks, with evident loadings in the Kharg island stopping completely. With onshore storage gradually filling up (Kpler data suggests Iranian storage tanks are now 60% full, storing around 70 million barrels), Iran will face the inevitable choice of cutting production. Whilst roughly 2.2 million b/d of production is relatively safe due to demand from its refineries, Tehran's pre-war crude output of 3.2 million b/d seems to be no longer achievable.

For China's 'teapots' (the smaller independent refineries concentrated in Shandong province), this removes a cornerstone of their crude supply. Accounting for roughly a fifth of Chinese crude imports, these refiners have built their purchasing strategies around discounted sanctioned barrels, particularly from Iran and Russia. Now they must search for barrels farther away, from the Middle East, West Africa and South America. In mid-September, ten Chinese independent refiners reportedly sent traders to Singapore to secure available supplies from the mentioned regions.

The shift is visible at Shandong's ports. Qingdao, connected by pipeline to 12 independent refineries, relied on Iran for 40% of its 690,000 b/d incoming flows in 2025. In recent months, it has increased purchases of Brazil's Tupi and Buzios grades and even started receiving Guyana's Golden Arrow in July, while still relying on Saudi and Russian supplies. Nevertheless, intake has fallen to a record low of around 150,000 b/d over the past three months.

At Dongying, on Shandong's northern Bohai coast, situated near 32 independent refineries, Russia and Iran supplied virtually all of last year's 330,000 b/d intake, accounting for two-thirds and one-third respectively. Iranian deliveries started to decrease in summer months, with just two cargoes arriving in August and just one in September. Total intake fell to a mere 220,000 b/d in September as crude-deprived refiners were compelled to cut refinery throughputs.

These refiners are being left with less oil and more expensive alternatives. Guyanese crude is particularly costly when long voyages coincide with an unprecedented shortage of very large crude carriers and record freight rates. To encourage independent refiners to increase runs, the Chinese government issued an additional 28.05 million tonnes of crude import quotas in late September, taking the annual allocation for non-state imports to a record high of 257 million tonnes. These quotas determine how much crude refiners are authorized to import, so the increase gives them room to buy more, but does little to make barrels available or more affordable.

Competition for Russian oil is intensifying, too. Chinese buying has reportedly pushed ESPO differentials to an all-time high premium of $28/bbl vs ICE Brent, while Urals is also trading $7-8/bbl above the same benchmark. Independents must also compete with state-owned buyers, which currently account for roughly half of China's seaborne crude imports, compared with 45% in February.

China's recovery is still at an early stage. Seaborne crude imports rose from 7.24 million b/d in August to 7.5 million b/d in September, but remain far below February's 11.5 million b/d. During April-July, imports had fallen to roughly half that pre-crisis level, depressed by the Beijing-mandated refinery product export ban, lower refinery runs and a gradual shift towards SPRs usage. China's strategic reserves (both state- and private-owned) remain at 1.12 billion barrels, down from 1.25 billion in April, but rebuilding imports while Iranian supplies disappear will put greater pressure on barrels available elsewhere.

For Tehran, the imbalance is becoming harder to tolerate. Peace negotiations continue without a breakthrough, its crude remains blocked, and its export revenues are squeezed. Meanwhile, oil from neighboring producers is moving through Hormuz at a surprisingly strong 13 million b/d. That recovery is both a relief for buyers and a vulnerability. As long as Iran cannot export, it has little economic incentive to preserve the arrangement allowing its neighbors' barrels through. Mounting financial pressure could eventually push Tehran to disrupt those flows, even more than it did ever before.

The market therefore faces two connected risks: China must replace Iranian oil as its demand recovers, and Iran may lose patience with a Strait that is reopening for everyone else. The disappearance of Iranian barrels is already tightening supply. A renewed disruption to Hormuz would make the cost of replacing them much higher.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 15:05

California, 6 Other States Sue Trump Admin Over Funding Cuts To Immigration, Race Projects

Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times,

California and six other states filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration on Wednesday after it moved to cut federal funding for programs involving immigration, race, and gender ideology.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta speaks in Los Angeles on April 15, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The White House said the programs are not in the national interest.

The states accuse the administration of withholding federal funds approved by Congress, including about $810 million the White House moved to cancel before the fiscal year ended.

The lawsuit is the latest move in a battle between President Donald Trump and Congress over control of the nation's spending.

Funding 'Does Not Benefit Americans'

"President Trump is committed to utilizing all possible tools to cut wasteful and harmful government spending that does not benefit American citizens," the White House said in a Sept. 25. statement announcing the steps.

Trump last year utilized what the White House said were "long-neglected presidential authorities provided to him under the Impoundment Control Act" to deploy the first pocket rescission in almost 50 years.

President Jimmy Carter used the tactic in 1977.

"This year, he is continuing his commitment to the American taxpayer by utilizing a pocket rescission for another nearly $1 billion of the most harmful government spending," the White House said.

'Open Borders NGO'

Some $567 million of the withdrawn funds previously went to nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and what the White House termed "pro-illegal immigration programs" that provided services to refugees, those granted asylum, and other noncitizens.

The statement said some of these programs "put unaccompanied children in harm's way."

Of this $567 million, some $2.1 million went to Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service Inc (DBA Global Refuge), which the White House described as "an open-borders NGO" run by Michelle Obama's former policy director, Krish O'Mara Vignarajah.

The statement said the organization's budget "more than quadrupled under the Biden administration, nearly all from government grants."

The administration intends to cut $40 million in funding to Southwest Key Programs, which faced a civil lawsuit from the Department of Justice alleging that it had, through its employees, subjected unaccompanied migrant children in its care to sexual harassment and abuse.

The lawsuit by the seven states sets up a fresh legal clash over the limits of presidential spending power, with the pocket rescission tactic drawing criticism from Democrats and some Republicans.

The states argue that the administration's efforts to withhold federal funds undermine Congress's exclusive power to control federal spending.

Filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California and led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, the suit argues that the administration's refusal to spend appropriated money violates the Constitution's separation of powers, appropriations, and presentment clauses.

'Blatant Disregard'

"I continue to be appalled by President Trump's blatant disregard for the basic Constitutional framework of our government. Just because the president doesn't like a program doesn't mean he can defund it," Bonta said in a statement.

The White House sought last week to unilaterally withhold the funds using a pocket rescission - sending Congress a request to cancel funds so close to the end of a fiscal year that they expire before lawmakers can act.

In August 2025, Trump used the same maneuver to cancel $4.9 billion in appropriated funds for foreign aid spending.

While the Constitution gives Congress control of the public purse, the White House said in last week's statement the programs were being used to support illegal immigration, stoke racial tensions, and promote climate alarmism, including through international funding.

One of the programs cut, a $15 million Community Relations initiative funded through the Department of Justice, promoted "radical critical race theory and gender ideology," according to the White House.

Another $70 million is set to be cut from what the administration termed "Woke International Education," referring to various initiatives that "support wasteful and divisive projects, including doctoral dissertations on queer and trans community building in foreign countries," the statement said.

California is joined by Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon in filing the lawsuit.

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office on Sept. 30, 2026. Alex Brandon/AP Photo Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 14:35

Trump Says Inflation Will Pay Off The $40 Trillion Debt "Very Rapidly"

President Trump thinks 'certain levels' of inflation could take care of the $40 trillion national debt. 

President Donald Trump appears at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

"You know, inflation. Certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly. Very rapidly," he told TIME in an interview published Thursday, after the outlet pointed out has grown by about $11 trillion over his five years in office. In response, Trump first blamed Joe Biden, then the Fed, then hinted at a plan he wouldn't share.

"I know I'm the best in the world," Trump said. "The best - I don't want to tell you what those means are, but you can pay off the debt through other means. But the one thing that you can do is pay it off through growth, and we've never had growth like this."

Later he circled back, saying "the growth is going to pay off the debt" and that the Fed's hikes were "hurting our country more than inflation is hurting our country."

He didn't say what level of inflation he had in mind, or whether he wants the Fed to tolerate more of it. Earlier in the same interview, though, he blamed Biden for "the biggest inflation in history" and said he "inherited the greatest inflation in history," adding that "the only thing I have to get down now is the gas."

Headline CPI rose 3.4% in the 12 months through August, with core at 2.4%, according to the BLS. On Sept. 16 the Fed raised rates for the first time since July 2023 - a unanimous quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4% that included Trump's own pick for chair, Kevin Warsh - and penciled in another before year-end. Trump told TIME he "probably would have voted against the board" if he were Warsh, and has called for rates of 1% "or less."

On Thursday, the day TIME published the interview, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002. It closed at 5.24%.

He's Floated This Before

None of this is new for the self-described "king of debt." In May 2016 he told CNBC the US could buy back its own bonds at a discount if rates went up. That was widely read as a default threat, so a few days later he went on CNN to walk it back. "You never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you, OK?" he said.

A month before that, he told the Washington Post he could wipe out what was then a $19 trillion debt "over a period of eight years" - a debt that has since more than doubled.

Buybacks are back, too. After the debt crossed $40 trillion and long-dated yields kept climbing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tripled the cap on the first expanded buyback to $6 billion. As we noted at the time, yields surged anyway, since $6 billion barely registers against more than $2 trillion in gross issuance a year.

Bessent, for his part, prefers to talk about growth. In June 2025 he told CBS's Margaret Brennan that "everything has been alarmist" on inflation and that the US would never default. And the day after Treasury reported the $40 trillion milestone, he went on CNBC to say there was "nothing magic" about the number and "we can grow our way out of that."

The Part He Left Out

Last year we ran a piece arguing Bessent was effectively putting the national debt on an adjustable-rate mortgage by leaning on floating-rate financing, which also projected the debt would top $40 trillion by the end of fiscal 2026 - it got there in mid-August, about six weeks ahead of schedule.

Back in April 2025, Bloomberg's Simon White made the case that higher inflation and a weaker dollar - where US policy seemed to be headed - were consistent with a falling debt burden. But he warned that unlike Britain's post-WWII "beautiful deleveraging," erratic policymaking could wreck trust in the dollar system, spark capital flight and end up adding to the debt.

Nick Giambruno spelled out the mechanics in July: financial repression, where the government keeps interest rates below inflation and the difference quietly moves wealth from savers to the Treasury. With 9% inflation and 4% rates, he noted, that's a 5% transfer every year, and it compounds.

It has worked before. A 2011 BIS paper estimated negative real rates wiped out debt worth 2-3% of GDP a year in the US and UK between the late 1940s and the 1970s. But that was under Bretton Woods, with interest-rate caps, captive domestic buyers and capital controls - and the paper found financial repression works best "when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation."

The catch is that it only works if the Treasury can borrow below the inflation rate. Right now it can't: the 10-year yields nearly two points more than headline CPI, interest on the debt already runs over $1 trillion a year, and everything that matures gets rolled at today's rates.

Getting real yields back below zero would take a Fed willing to cut into rising prices - the 1% "or less" Trump keeps asking for - or something like the rate caps and captive buyers of the 1940s. Trump didn't say whether either one is among the "other means" he wouldn't name.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 14:15

Airlines Plan 'Rescue Flights' For Stranded Israelis In UAE After FlyDubai Incident

Via The Cradle

Israeli national airline El Al announced on Friday that it had canceled flights scheduled to bring Israelis home from Dubai after the UAE withdrew landing permits for Israeli carriers.

"Due to the cancellation of approval for Israeli companies to land in Dubai, as was reported by the authorities in Israel, we are forced to cancel, at this stage, our rescue flights," the airline said in a statement posted on social media.

AFP/Getty Images

El Al said it remains prepared to operate charter flights to Dubai to bring Israeli citizens home as soon as it receives official approval.

The Israeli airline did not explain why the landing permits had been withdrawn. Emirati authorities have not provided an explanation.

Israeli passengers were stranded in the UAE after an incident on a FlyDubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv. The plane’s copilot allegedly stabbed the captain and tried to crash the aircraft before passengers and crew managed to enter the cockpit to restrain him.

Other FlyDubai pilots who happened to be passengers on the flight made an emergency landing in the Saudi city of Tabuk.

Emirati authorities ordered an investigation to establish the circumstances and motives behind the incident. Israeli authorities quickly claimed the incident was a terror attack.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed in a Fox News interview that the copilot had undergone "Islamist radical indoctrination" and that the man was suicidal. Netanyahu gave no evidence for the claim.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz went further, calling the incident an “attempted jihadist terrorist attack” and saying the copilot intended to crash the aircraft with everyone aboard.

One of the passengers, 50-year-old Yaniv Hayun, claimed that he ran to the cockpit after the stabbing and stabilized the plane after it plunged 20,000 feet toward the ground. 

Hayun, the owner of a plumbing company in Israel, has no background in aviation. He claimed​ he knew how to pull the plane out of its nose-dive, saving more than 170 people, after watching an aircraft crash TV show.

A pilot interviewed by CNN said that aspects of the plane's fall “did not make sense” and that, had the plane plunged so fast, it would have “disintegrated completely.”

The pilot in the CNN OutFront clip is Aaron Murphy, a commercial pilot and flight instructor. He is sitting in a flight simulator recreating the Flydubai FZ1073 incident so viewers can see what the cockpit and the aircraft itself would have looked like during the sudden… https://t.co/SV6zmXfCCa pic.twitter.com/JOZiSn9nwv

— xpos (@blame_d_cat) October 1, 2026

One day before the incident took place, Netanyahu held a security establishment assessment and talks with opposition leader Yair Lapid over an alleged, pre-Israeli election “security threat” that the premier had announced earlier on Tuesday. 

The FlyDubai incident has proven politically useful for Netanyahu, who met with Hayun in front of the media, hailing him as a hero. Netanyahu is seeking a seventh term as prime minister in Israel’s upcoming Knesset elections, scheduled for October 27.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 13:55

Putin: Ready To Use 'All Weapons' Including Nuclear, If Kaliningrad Attacked

Now it's no longer just high-ranking Kremlin officials saying it, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has now directly weighed in amid the ongoing nuclear threat tit-for-tat involving European officials.

Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow on Thursday, he warned the Western allies to cease their escalation in Ukraine, stressing he's willing to use "all weapons" in the Russian arsenal in the scenario that Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad comes under attack.

"The drills in the Baltic Sea, following one another… Then the attempts to arrest our ships and vessels. All this is an escalation. And then we began to hear statements regarding the Kaliningrad region," Putin said.

Kremlin file image/via Fox

"If it comes to direct attack against the Russian Federation, in this case on Kaliningrad and possibly some other territories, of course the issue of using all weapons in our country’s arsenal will inevitably and unavoidably emerge on the agenda. This is unavoidable," he asserted in a warning that includes nuclear weapons.

NATO held recent military drills near Kaliningrad which were broadly described as deterrence operations, which Putin referenced in the remarks.

Rhetoric has been running particularly hot over the exclave which is sandwiched between NATO members Poland and Lithuania all week, as Associated Press earlier described:

The warning sent to NATO echoed statements issued by several Russian embassies in Europe this week which said that Moscow has "information that NATO is preparing (an) air and naval blockade of Kaliningrad and Kaliningrad region."

The embassies in the U.K. and Ireland posted their statements on their Telegram channels, and the embassy in Belgium released it to the Tass news agency.

The ratcheting accusations from the European side have also centered on charges of a Russian sabotage campaign targeting the Baltics as well as Germany.

Moscow at the start of the week took the rare step of submitting a formal letter to NATO leadership in Brussels.

The letter accused NATO of an "unprecedented escalation of the military-political situation around Russia's region of Kaliningrad accompanied by highly provocative public statements by NATO Allies' officials."

"This dangerous and reckless course entails high risk of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict with the possibility of Russian strikes against decision-making centers of the alliance's member states right from the outset of the conflict," the letter said.

NATO was especially incensed and alarmed at this key line of Moscow's letter:

"Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory, should NATO countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad region from the rest of the country."

Apparently this most recent tense back-and-forth over Kaliningrad was initially triggered by a television show which recently aired in the UK this month.

Preview of the provocative UK series The WarGame which started airing this month. The Kremlin has vehemently condemned it, and sees in it some clear messaging and an ominous threat:

Michael ‘The Gover’ Gove and ‘Bad Penny’ Mordaunt are loving their scripted roles in WarGames - just like the scripted parts they played for years in our Parliament.
This drama - documentary simulates an attack on the UK by Russia and was filmed 3 years ago.
Why do you think… pic.twitter.com/JYE8u5U8jH

— Andrew Bridgen (@ABridgen) September 22, 2026

Newsweek described, "The statement follows a miniseries aired by British broadcaster Sky News last week, The Wargame, which traces a hypothetical Russian attack on the U.K. and how the country might respond—including by authorizing operations against the Baltic territory of Kaliningrad."

    OCTOBER ONLY.$10 OFFYOUR NEXT ORDER.$30 min. Ends Oct 31. One per customer.GET MY $10 OFF →Signs you up for ZeroHedge Store emails. Can't be combined. Every order helps support ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 13:30

CNN Concedes Republicans Will Keep The Senate If The Polls Miss Like They Have Before

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Wednesday that Republicans have beaten their September polling in Ohio, Iowa and Michigan by wide margins in recent election cycles. If that pattern repeats in November, the GOP could keep control of the Senate despite current Democratic leads in all three states.

With just over a month before the midterms, Democrats have spent weeks enjoying a Senate map that looked impossible a year ago. Democrats need to net just four seats to win the majority. Republicans started the second half of President Donald Trump's term with what looked like a firm hold on the upper chamber. The Democrats' original plan was to defend Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, then take Republican seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. Then the map got bigger for the Democrats. Trump's falling approval numbers and voters' frustration with the economy gave Democrats openings in states the party had long given up on. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer took a victory lap almost immediately.

"We now have multiple paths for the majority," Schumer said. "We found new states - Iowa, Texas - which people a year ago weren't even paying attention to."

However, Michigan and Maine, two races Democrats once treated as near-certain wins, have become real contests. That forces the party to win more of its new territory just to stay even. Every "reach" state Schumer adds to the list has to make up for a seat that was supposed to be in the bag.

If Democrats win a majority in the Senate, they'll be able to block presidential nominees, including judges. A Democratic majority would turn every confirmation vote into a two-year war of attrition. However, some of the races Democrats are banking on going their way have a history of being wrong.

"But here's the question, what if the polls are wrong?" CNN anchor John Berman asked the network's chief data analyst Harry Enten.

"We've had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa," Enten told CNN. "And, you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question, could it happen again?"

His data suggests it might. "In Iowa, where the Democrats have been getting really good polls, Republicans outperformed their September polls by nine points back in 2024. How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points."

He continued, "And I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024."

Enten went back to 2018, Trump's first midterm, when Trump wasn't on the ballot, and the trend was the same.

"You can go back to Donald Trump's first midterm election. And it's the same exact story. Look at this, the GOP outperformed September polls in the major 2018 statewide races by six points in Iowa, six points in Ohio and eight points in Michigan."

The miss wasn't just a Trump-on-the-ballot effect. It showed up in every cycle Enten checked except 2022. "The bottom line is this," Enten said. "Over the last few cycles, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024, Republicans have outperformed their September polls by at least five points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead, but not by a wide enough margin whereby if Republicans outperform their September polls again, it could become very, very interesting."

So, if the trend continues, the Senate map looks really good for Republicans.

"Let's just say that the GOP outperforms their Midwest polls, like they did in 2018 and 2024," Enten said. "Well, what do you get? You get a red Michigan. You get a red Ohio. You get a red Iowa. And all of a sudden, even if Democrats carry states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina and Alaska, well, guess what you get? You get a 50/50 Senate with J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote."

The party could pull off a historic upset in Texas, hold Georgia, and flip North Carolina and Alaska, and still end up in the minority because three Midwestern states have behaved the same way in four of the last five cycles.

The prediction markets are less sure than the polls, according to Enten. "Well, the Kalshi prediction market says that Abdul El-Sayed is still a favorite in Michigan, but not an overwhelming one, 73 percent. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, 61 percent. That's basically a toss-up territory. And Josh Turek in Iowa, where he got a really good poll earlier this week, a 42 percent chance."

"In these midwestern Senate races, yes, Democrats have gotten good polls," Enten said. "But I would just say, hold on just a brief second here because history says, you know what, it might not end for them as well as the polls currently suggest it will."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 12:20

Today July 19 2013 Here is the news conference by Governor Rick Snyder and emergency manager Kevyn Orr explaining why they claimed bankruptcy.

http://www.whec.com/news/stories/S310...
Rochester, N.Y. -- She says she had no warning that someone was going to search her car after she left to catch her flight. So the woman contacted News10NBC.

We found out it happened to her because she valet parked her car. Those are the only cars that get inspected.

So if security feels it is necessary to search some cars in the name of safety, why not search all of them?

Laurie Iacuzza walked to her waiting car at the Greater Rochester International Airport after returning from a trip and that's when she found it -- a notice saying her car was inspected after she left for her flight. She said, “I was furious. They never mentioned it to me when I booked the valet or when I picked up the car or when I dropped it off.”

Henry Kissinger actually publicly stated that those who oppose the New World Order are "terrorists".

Henry Kissinger in a speech given in Istanbul, Turkey on May 31, 2007, while the Bilderberg conference was simultaneously underway, just a few miles down the road.

"In the Middle East, we live in a different world. The nations do not represent historic entities in the same sense that European nations did. Turkey of course does, and Iran in a considerable extent does. But in the region in between, the borders were drawn by the victors of World War I on the basis largely of what would facilitate their influence. So therefore, the identities of these countries, and of their borders, can be challenged more easily."

"What we in America call terrorists are really groups of people that reject the international system, and they're trying to regroup it to a radical Islamic fundamentalists kind."

Detroit has become the largest city in Unites States history to file for bankruptcy after decades of decline and mismanagement rendered the city insolvent. Michigan's governor, Rick Snyder, said on Thursday that there was no other option to tackle the city's $18.5bn of debts. Al Jazeera's Caroline Malone reports.

Detroit has become the largest city in Unites States history to file for bankruptcy after decades of decline and mismanagement rendered the city insolvent.William Black, a professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, talks to Al Jazeera about Detroit filing bankruptcy.

7/18/13 - Anti-government activist Adam Kokesh, who is currently jailed on drug charges and is facing a firearms charge in D.C., says he will someday run for President on a platform of abolishing the federal government. Since July 9th, 31-year old Adam Kokesh has been incarcerated in a cell in the Fairfax County jail which measures seven by seven-and-a-half feet.

On Independence Day, Kokesh had a colleague record a video of the pro-gun activist loading a shotgun on D.C.'s Freedom Plaza. The District has strict gun control laws that generally forbid the carrying of firearms. U.S. Park Police and D.C.'s Metropolitan Police Department opened an investigation.

Several days later, U.S. Park Police used a flash grenade when their SWAT team served a search warrant at Kokesh's home in Herndon, Va. Kokesh was arrested when officers said they found hallucinogenic mushrooms at the house.

In an exclusive jailhouse interview, Adam Kokesh denies any connection to the drugs. Here is part of the transcript of that interview with Kokesh: "If they found a stash of magic mushrooms in my house, they were not mine. ANY IDEA WHOSE THEY WERE, OR WHY THEY WERE IN YOUR HOUSE? I'm pretty confident that, whether or not they found anything, the full paper bags that [U.S. Park Police] brought into my house would insure that they had charges to bring against me. ARE YOU IMPLYING THAT THOSE DRUGS WERE PLANTED? Yes."

Kokesh, who has been arrested several times before by U.S. Park Police, says that agency has a "vendetta" against him, but he believes the evidence in the drug case is weak.

Federal officers have now filed a weapons charge against Kokesh for wielding the shotgun in D.C. on the Fourth of July. Here's more of the interview: "WAS IT A REAL SHOTGUN AND WERE THEY REAL SHELLS GOING INTO IT? Yes. ON THE VIDEO YOU POSTED? Yes. YOU DID KNOW THAT WAS ILLEGAL IN D.C.? It's called civil disobedience."

Adam Kokesh believes the Second Amendment to the Constitution will provide him a successful defense against the D.C. gun charge.

The former U.S. Marine who served in Iraq plans to someday bring his anti-government views before voters. "ARE YOU RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT? Yes sir, in 2020 on the platform of: orderly dissolution of the United States government. WHY IS THAT A GOOD IDEA? Why is having a federal government a good idea at this point?"

Adam Kokesh believes the U.S. military is more harmful than helpful to American security, and the government -- as a whole -- has burdened its citizenry with debt.

Adam Kokesh is 70% disabled from his term of military service. He says he lives only on that money.

His supporters, through their website, adamvstheman.com, are asking supporters to send money for bail and send money so a private attorney can be hired. Kokesh is currently being represented by a public defender.

Kokesh remains in custody in the Fairfax County Adult Detention Center, and, if he is freed on bond, he faces extradition to D.C. to face the gun charge.

July 18, 2013 - Bill O'Reilly Interviews Donald Trump on Economy, China, and Obamacare



Trump would be a hell of a lot better president then Obama, at least he is willing to do what needs to be done instead of creating some BS healthcare system .He's a businessman, he knows how to make deals, he will get tough on China (even if he has ties made in China in which I don't think he knew or maybe he thought we're a screwed country so why not just sell them to stupid people who will only buy them anyway), I don't believe what they say about his net worth (in which they say isn't worth much). Trump has a big fat heart inside I believe it.

Here it comes Detroit about to be largest Bankrupt City .The city of Detroit files for Chapter 9 federal bankruptcy protection, making the automobile capital and onetime music powerhouse the country's largest-ever municipal bankruptcy case. WSJ Global Autos Editor Joe White reports.


This news really ruined Obama's golf game today ... ya America is crumbling apart , but we have 15,000 Russian soldiers to help fix it I hear!!

Steve Keen Exposes Financial Fallacies and Debates the Mortgage Debt Jubilee!


"I don't understand gold." Yes, that's what our beloved Fed Chairman actually told Congress today. Maybe that's why Germany wants 300 tonnes of it back. That would be gold the Fed is holding on its behalf. We have just one word for you Finance Minister Schaeuble: tungsten. But don't worry, Chairman Bernanke assured the S&P 500 -- now at all time highs -- that the monetary QE stimulus will continue until the economy can stand on its own feet. Such anthropomorphization is quite quaint for an econometrician, isn't it? We debunk the likes of Bernanke and talk about the mortgage jubilee with economist Steve Keen.

And, Jamie Dimon can't seem to find a chair that isn't the hot seat. JP Morgan is about to shell out a few hundred million in a settlement with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. That would be for allegedly manipulating energy markets in California, Enron style. Barclays already settled for $435 million. And a similar settlement for JP Morgan would amount to -- well just one sixtieth -- of its $26 billion in revenues reported last Friday. No word yet on how much it actually profited from allegedly bilking Americans.

Finally, subprime is back. The Consumer Financial Protection Board just strengthened mortgage underwriting standards. But if you don't fall under the new rules, don't worry. Because the guy who helped write the rules at the CFPB just went private -- and started a company that will service the very market his old regulatory body now excludes. And, yes, they're even providing interest-only financing -- because that worked so well in 2008. You can't make this stuff up! Perianne breaks down the boom-bust cycle.

Unorthodox ufologist Norio Hayakawa presented his views and research on UFOs, clandestine government activities, and the mysterious Dulce, New Mexico area, rumored to house an underground base. The state of New Mexico itself has been a hotbed of paranormal and UFO activity going back to 1947, he reported. Starting with the Roswell Incident, "the year 1947 was the beginning of a conditioning of belief systems...carefully orchestrated for future events," he commented.

He believes the Roswell crash was staged "by an unknown intelligence" in collusion with an elite part of the US government. UFOs are neither flying nor objects, but rather part of an intelligence that co-exists with us and has the ability to materialize, he explained.

Hayakawa was one of the first to bring Project Bluebeam to public attention in his 1995 documentary video Secrets of Dreamland, which suggested that a covert government would have sufficient technology to artificially simulate a UFO threat in order to bring about a forced global unity.

Regarding Dulce, he has not found direct physical evidence for an underground base there, yet, there have been many strange reports and sightings in the area which encompasses the Jicarilla Apache Reservation. "I think there's a reality on another level that we may not be able to see with our physical eyes" and a base could exist at Dulce in a non-physical realm, he shared.

Biography:

Norio Hayakawa calls himself an unorthodox ufologist and activist. He has spent almost 10 years specifically investigating Area 51 in Nevada. He says that there is much more to Area 51 than just superficial facts made public about this well-known base. In 1990 he also began to investigate the strange goings-on at Dulce, New Mexico. After more than 45 years of researching the UFO phenomenon, he says that a conditioning of belief systems have been orchestrated since 1947 by a manipulative force that is preparing mankind for a near future mysterious scenario. The ingrained and "altered" realities behind both Area 51 and Dulce will play a role in that scenario. In March of 2009 he organized the first-ever Underground Base conference in Dulce, New Mexico.

Wikipedia
The term shadow government (also cryptocracy) besides its party political meaning can also refer to what is sometimes called "the secret government" or "the invisible government," an idea based on the notion that real and actual political power does not reside with publicly elected representatives (for example the United States Congress (or the Cabinet of the United Kingdom) but with private individuals who are exercising power behind the scenes beyond the scrutiny of democratic institutions. According to this belief the official elected government is in reality subservient to the shadow government who are the true executive power.

Conspiracy-oriented literature postulates the existence of a secret government who are the true power behind the apparent government. Examples of such literature include works by Dan Smoot, William Guy Carr, Jim Marrs, Carroll Quigley, Gary Allen, Des Griffin, David Icke, Michael A. Hoffman II and John Coleman. Some of these authors believe members of the secret government may represent or be agents for groups such as the Council on Foreign Relations, The Royal Institute for International Affairs, The Trilateral Commission, the Bilderberg Group, CIA and MI6 in co-operation with international banks and financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements. Also popularizing the idea was the hit US television show, The X-Files.

In his novel Coningsby, Benjamin Disraeli stated that "The world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes". One definition of a shadow government is a "secret government within the government". This secret government is the "real" government that controls the legitimate and visible government's agenda. The network of people constituting this secret government are bound by some common agenda known only to each other and/or the people they represent. The agenda may be that of a secret society who have infiltrated the government (examples include Freemasons, Skull and Bones men or Illuminatists). In this case the agenda of the network is known only to those members who are bound by an oath of secrecy.

The shadow government is also considered by popular authors[who?] to be behind black budget projects and covert operations.

One of the most popular conspiracy theories about a shadow government is the notion of a "Zionist Occupation Government

Travelers on their way to Britain might want to leave their phones at home after it was revealed they could be seized and browsed through by police. And amazingly it's totally legal, as Tesa Arcilla reports.


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