Restoring American Industrial Might To Counter China

Authored by Pat Fallon via RealClearDefense,

U.S. intelligence predicts a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027, just two short years away. The fall of Taiwan would ensure China corners the world’s market for semiconductor chips—used in everything from cars to smartphones to satellites. A victory here for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would also no doubt embolden the authoritarian regime’s expansionist ambitions elsewhere. 

The CCP has made it abundantly clear that its goal is to challenge U.S. global dominance and undermine the West politically, economically, and militarily. It’s no secret that China’s military expansion is proceeding at an alarming rate, even after you account for Beijing’s propaganda campaigns. Without a robust navy, the U.S. will be unable to project power in the Indo-Pacific and maintain the capability to deter CCP belligerence. In fact, while the U.S. Navy currently holds a technological advantage in terms of the ships and weapons systems at its disposal, China’s navy currently holds a four-to-one advantage in terms of ships deployed to the region. The United States would likely struggle to replace the loss of even a portion of its fleet should it become involved in a hot conflict with China in the near future. 

The CCP has made up significant ground thanks to the weak leadership and inaction seen under the Biden Administration. At the same time, the focus of U.S. defense policy on counterinsurgency and post-Cold War consolidation has contributed to an atrophied defense industrial base. China has capitalized on this golden opportunity to modernize its military in significant ways, namely shipbuilding. 

As of 2024, China controls over half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding market, while the United States’ share is about 0.1 percent. China’s gains and the United States’ shortcomings present a major threat to our national security and that of our allies and partners. Today, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is the largest in the world in terms of the number of ships, and it's expected to have a fleet of 425 ships by 2030. In comparison, the U.S. Navy is projected to have around 300 battle-ready ships. 

The most critical aspect of China’s naval expansion is its focus on quantity, speed, and versatility. While the U.S. Navy has traditionally focused on deploying fewer but more technologically advanced ships, China has adopted a strategy of sheer volume, rapidly expanding the capabilities of its fleet. Additionally, China’s aggressive pursuit of advanced naval systems, such as anti-ship missiles and nuclear-powered submarines, positions them as a major threat to U.S. naval dominance. As the PLAN grows in size and technological assets, it creates significant challenges for the U.S. and its allies in maintaining military strength and preventing conflicts in the Indo-Pacific. 

Because unlike the U.S., which has two coasts to defend, China’s shipbuilding efforts are mainly centered around a single state-owned institution: China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC). By employing the concept of  “military-civil fusion,” about 75% of CSSC’s commercial production is sold to outside buyers, enabling them to funnel extensive funds as well as new technologies back into China’s drive to modernize. Some of these outside buyers in recent years include our own allies—Japan, South Korea, France, Greece, and Denmark. Even more worrisome, Taiwan has purchased a large quantity from these high-risk shipyards, despite the CCP’s constant threats of aggression towards the island. We must emphasize the shared risks posed to our allies and partners by their continued, even indirect, support for CSSC, which poses a considerable risk to U.S. national security and underscores the need for increased domestic production here at home.

Restoring the United States’ shipbuilding industry must be viewed as a national security priority. 

This is a daunting task, but the U.S. defense establishment cannot sit idle and cede this industry to our greatest adversary. While it may not be feasible to completely surpass Chinese production levels in the near future, the U.S. can still ensure that we have immediate access to the resources our navy needs by increasing funding for stockpiles of various crucial munitions, including long-range anti-ship missiles, torpedoes, and standard missiles. 

The overall dilapidated state and overcentralization on the East Coast of U.S. shipyards has proven to be a consistent problem. If we want to be able to quickly build and repair ships and relevant assets at both scale and a rapid pace, the U.S. must diversify our shipyards to focus on getting the right systems into the hands of the warfighter. Too much of our defense budget is being poured into ineffective programs and overcomplicated contracts that don't keep pace with evolving threats. Eliminating unnecessary bureaucratic red tape is necessary here to unshackle our domestic defense industrial base. Incentivizing private companies to contribute to our defenses and infrastructure would help to streamline this process and allow for faster development and deployment of new technologies that can give us an edge over China in key areas.

If the U.S. is serious about deterring CCP aggression in the Indo-Pacific, we must give our navy the tools and resources to do so. This means embarking on a concerted effort to restore our domestic defense industrial base so as to prevent the projected 2027 scenario from happening in the first place.

Congressman Pat Fallon represents Texas’s 4th Congressional District. An Air Force veteran, he is a member of the House Armed Services, Intelligence, and Oversight and Accountability committees. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 23:20

How Reliant Are Foreign Automakers On US Buyers?

With global automakers facing uncertainty from U.S. auto tariffs, the importance of American car buyers has never been clearer. For many automakers, the U.S. is a key market responsible for over one quarter of revenue.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu, visualizes how reliant foreign automakers are on U.S. buyers, based on analysis from the Wall Street Journal.

The data we used to create this graphic is listed in the table below.

Please note that April-December 2024 data was used for Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. North American data was used for VW, Audi, Porsche, and Hyundai.

Based on this dataset, Honda has the highest reliance on U.S. buyers. In 2023, the Japanese automaker saw its U.S. sales surge by 33%.

Honda has committed over $1 billion to retool its Ohio manufacturing plants to be able to produce gasoline, hybrid, and EV models all on the same production line.

Additionally, in partnership with LG Energy Solution, Honda is investing $4.4 billion in a new battery production facility in Ohio.

A Background on U.S. Auto Tariffs

According to S&P Global Mobility, almost half of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2024 were assembled outside of the country.

The top five countries ranked by their value of U.S. vehicle imports are:

• Mexico ($78.5B)

• Japan ($39.7B)

• South Korea ($36.6B)

• Canada ($31.2B)

• Germany ($24.8B)

Trump’s auto tariffs are intended to coerce automakers into moving their production to the U.S., though this is difficult in practice due to the complexity and globalization of modern supply chains.

Automakers often rely on a vast network of international suppliers for parts and materials, and relocating entire production lines can take years and require massive capital investment.

One automotive executive, speaking anonymously with CNN, stated that it takes at least three years for brand new automotive capacity to be constructed. By that time, a new administration could be in power, and the rules could change again.

If you’re enjoying our content, check out The Best Selling Vehicle in Every State in 2024 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 22:45

Critical Mineral Cooperation With Pakistan Carries With It Five Strategic Risks For The US

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The US sent one of its top diplomats for South Asia to attend the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum in Islamabad last week, during which time he conveyed the Trump Administration’s interest in critical mineral cooperation with Pakistan and met with senior political and military officials to discuss this. 

These resources are integral to the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” and that’s why the US is negotiating such partnerships across the world with countries as varied as Ukraine, the Congo, and now Pakistan.

Each of these three entail strategic risks, but it’s only the last one that will be discussed in this analysis. To begin with, the bulk of Pakistan’s mineral resources are located in its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, which are respectively suffering terrorist insurgencies waged by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). The former is fighting to impose a radical Islamic dictatorship, the latter wants independence, and both are designated by the US as terrorists.

Accordingly, the first strategic risk that critical mineral cooperation with Pakistan entails is that these groups target American companies and nationals in these two regions. 

This is a plausible scenario since the BLA in particular is infamous for targeting Chinese workers, who they accuse of extracting their region’s wealth. As for the TTP, it’s waging war against the partially US-armed Pakistani state. Both groups are therefore expected to consider American companies and nationals to be legitimate targets.

The second strategic risk builds upon the first and relates to the US being convinced by Pakistan that the aforesaid threats to its mining companies could be mitigated through preferential arms deals. 

The Trump Administration would do well to think twice about that though since Pakistan’s much more significant arms relationship with China hasn’t made its workers any safer and perceived American favoritism of Pakistan by India could complicate their ties upon which a lot of the US’ “Pivot (back) to Asia” depends.

Segueing into the third strategic risk, Pakistan might be offering the US critical mineral cooperation at this time not only to cause trouble in Indo-US ties, but also to relieve reported pressure upon its ruling military establishment by the America First faction. 

They believe that civilian-led democratic rule would facilitate the main anti-Chinese goal of the US’ “Pivot (back) to Asia” as explained here so the ruling military establishment that stands to lose from this might be trying to buy them off with a mineral deal.

The fourth strategic risk is that Pakistan doesn’t comply with whatever strings the US might attach to a mineral deal in exchange for relieving pressure upon its military rulers. For instance, they might agree to distance Pakistan in some way from China, logistically facilitate mineral exports from Afghanistan if the US clinches a similar such deal there, and/or allow CIA drone bases for spying on and threatening Iran. It’s possible that these would just be false promises to secure a deal and enrich corrupt military officials.

And finally, the last strategic risk is that the US gets embroiled in another “War on Terror” if “mission creep” leads to it fighting the TTP and BLA with Pakistan in order to secure its mineral investments. 

The “sunk-cost fallacy” could also play a role in these calculations too. 

Coupled with potential complications in Indo-US ties and the derailing of the US’ “Pivot (back) to Asia”, the strategic costs of critical mineral cooperation with Pakistan could far outweigh the expected benefits, thus making it a poisoned chalice.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 22:10

Judge Orders Trump Admin To Unfreeze Funds Withheld From Maine Over Transgender Athletes

A U.S. District Court in Maine issued a ruling April 11 ordering the federal government to release funding to Maine that was frozen over the state’s decision to disregard an executive order and allow transgender athletes in women’s sports.

Conflict between the state and federal government began after President Donald Trump issued the order titled “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government” on his first day back in the White House for a second term.

The Epoch Times' Travis Gillmore reports that in a 70-page ruling, Judge John A. Woodcock Jr. ordered the Department of Agriculture and its secretary, Brooke Rollins, to “immediately unfreeze” any money held back because the state chose not to follow the president’s executive action.

Agencies are also barred from withholding future funding on similar grounds.

Meanwhile, the court distanced itself from the debate over transgender athletes.

“In ruling on the state’s request, the court is not weighing in on the merits of the controversy about transgender athletes that forms the backdrop of the impasse between the state and the federal defendants,” Woodcock wrote in his decision.

He went on to explain that the decision was based on the Agriculture Department’s failure to follow regulatory protocols when withholding the funding.

“In fact, the federal defendants have not argued in this case that the relevant federal laws and regulations for terminating federal funding of state programs do not apply to this situation, nor do they claim that they complied with the applicable federal law in the events resulting in this litigation.”

The Trump administration argued that the court did not have proper jurisdiction to hear the case, and that Maine did not “allege irreparable harm.”

Tensions boiled over during a February meeting with governors at the White House, when Trump and Maine Gov. Janet Mills sparred over the issue in a heated back-and-forth.

When Maine opted not to prohibit transgender athletes from competing against women, Rollins sent a letter April 2 to Mills alerting her that the Agriculture Department was “freezing Maine’s federal funds for certain administrative and technological functions in schools,” according to the court ruling.

In its lawsuit filed on April 7, Maine said it was unable to access approximately $3 million.

The state told the court the money was used for programs that helped provide meals to schools, childcare facilities, and disabled adults.

In Rollins’s April 2 letter to Mills saying the funds had been frozen, the agriculture secretary said the pause “does not impact federal feeding programs or direct assistance to Mainers; if a child was fed today, they will be fed tomorrow.”

State officials celebrated the ruling and said it would help protect nutritional programs meant to benefit at-risk populations.

“This temporary restraining order confirms the Trump administration did not follow the rule of law when it cut program funds that go to feed schoolchildren and vulnerable adults,” Maine Attorney General Aaron Frey said in a statement. 

“This order preserves Maine’s access to certain congressionally appropriated funds by prohibiting an unlawful freeze by the administration.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the White House for comment.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 21:35

Israeli Military Admits Hamas Still Has 75% of Tunnels Intact & 40,000 Fighters

Via The Libertarian Institute 

Israeli military sources speaking to the press revealed the lack of progress Tel Aviv has made toward one of its core goals in Gaza: eliminating Hamas. The armed wing of the Palestinian group reportedly retains 75% of its tunnel network, 40,000 fighters and the ability to produce its own weapons.

According to Haaretz, an Israeli defense official explained that Hamas still has significant military capabilities despite 18 months of fighting in the Strip. Israeli military analysts now estimate that Hamas has 40,000 fighters.

Hamas tunnel entrance, via NBC News

Before October 7, 2023, Hamas was estimated to have between 20,000 and 30,000 fighters under arms. Near the end of the Joe Biden administration, the US intelligence community estimated the group had lost 15,000 men during the Israeli onslaught, but had recruited the same number of new troops.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that one of his top goals in Gaza is to eradicate Hamas. However, the war has decimated the civilian population of Gaza.

Most Gazans have been displaced multiple times, at least 50,000 have been killed - per Palestinian health sources - and countless deaths of deprivation have been reported.

Tel Aviv and Washington maintain that all of the fatalities caused by the Israeli war and blockade are the responsibility of Hamas.

The Israeli defense officials reported that despite some protests, Hamas retains its popularity and is firmly in charge of Gaza. Its armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, still has the capability to produce arms and rockets.

Last week, Hamas fired several rockets into Israel, leaving one person injured.

While Hamas has a significant fighting force, Israeli officials said the militants have not been engaging with Israeli troops. Tel Aviv says the fighters are hiding among civilians or in tunnels.

⚡️Israeli army calls on citizens of Gaza to evacuate from eastern Khan Yunis pic.twitter.com/WT8eckDASM

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 11, 2025

Hamas also retains a significant portion of its tunnel network. The officials said the IDF has only managed to destroy 25% of the group’s underground facilities so far. Defense Minister Israel Katz explained that some of the tunnels connecting Gaza with Egypt remain intact.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 19:50

These Are The Most Taxed States In America

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, is based on research by WalletHub, which ranked states by total tax burden, combining property, income, and sales taxes as a share of personal income. Data is from the Tax Policy Center as of March 2025.

Hawaii Tops the Nation in Total Tax Burden

Hawaii holds the highest total tax burden in the United States, with residents contributing nearly 14% of their income to state and local governments. This includes 4.2% in income taxes, 2.6% in property taxes, and a substantial 7.2% in sales and excise taxes.

Rank State Total Tax Burden 1 Hawaii 13.9% 2 New York 13.6% 3 Vermont 11.5% 4 California 11.0% 5 Maine 10.6% 6 New Jersey 10.3% 7 Illinois 10.2% 8 Rhode Island 10.1% 9 Maryland 10.0% 10 Connecticut 9.9% 11 Minnesota 9.7% 12 New Mexico 9.6% 13 Massachusetts 9.6% 14 Utah 9.5% 15 Ohio 9.4% 16 Kansas 9.3% 17 Iowa 9.2% 18 Indiana 9.1% 19 Mississippi 9.1% 20 Oregon 9.1% 21 Louisiana 8.9% 22 Kentucky 8.9% 23 Virginia 8.9% 24 West Virginia 8.9% 25 Nebraska 8.8% 26 Colorado 8.7% 27 Nevada 8.6% 28 Washington 8.6% 29 Arkansas 8.6% 30 Pennsylvania 8.6% 31 Georgia 8.5% 32 Wisconsin 8.3% 33 Michigan 8.3% 34 Arizona 8.2% 35 North Carolina 8.2% 36 South Carolina 8.2% 37 Alabama 8.0% 38 Montana 7.9% 39 Missouri 7.8% 40 Texas 7.8% 41 Idaho 7.5% 42 Oklahoma 7.0% 43 North Dakota 6.6% 44 Delaware 6.5% 45 Florida 6.5% 46 South Dakota 6.5% 47 Tennessee 6.4% 48 New Hampshire 5.9% 49 Wyoming 5.8% 50 Alaska 4.9%

In contrast, Alaska has the lowest overall tax burden. Residents there pay no state income tax, only 3.5% of their income in property taxes, and just 1.5% in sales and excise taxes—resulting in a total tax burden of only 4.9%.

Individual Income Tax

Topping the list is New York, followed closely by California, Maryland, Oregon, and Hawaii. These states tend to have more progressive tax systems and offer extensive public services and infrastructure, which are often funded by higher income taxes.

On the other hand, five states—Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, and Tennessee—are tied for having the lowest individual income tax burdens, all ranked 43rd. This is because these states do not levy a state income tax at all.

Property Tax

At the top of the list are Vermont, New Hampshire, and New Jersey—states known for higher living costs and robust public services, which often rely on property taxes for funding. Rounding out the top five are New York and Maine.

On the opposite end, states like Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma have the lowest property tax burdens, with Tennessee and Delaware also ranking near the bottom.

If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out this graphic, which ranks the income a family needs to live comfortably in every U.S. state.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 19:15

A Tale Of Two Sanctuary Cities: Chicago Hits Back At Trump, L.A. Stays Quiet

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

Two states and the largest cities within them had nearly opposite reactions after President Trump reiterated his plans to withhold all federal funds from areas in the country that have policies limiting local law enforcement cooperation with federal immigration authorities.

Illinois went on offense, while California opted to tread lightly.

Trump, who has repeatedly promised to conduct the largest mass deportation of illegal immigrants in U.S. history, on Thursday pledged to put an end to these states’ and localities’ “sanctuary policies.”

“No more Sanctuary Cities! They protect the Criminals, not the Victims. They are disgracing our Country, and are being mocked all over the World,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

“Working on papers to withhold all Federal Funding for any City or State that allows these Death Traps to exist!!!” he added.

That same day, the GOP-led House Oversight and Government Reform Committee called on Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker to testify on Capitol Hill about the state’s sanctuary policies, along with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

“Harboring aliens is a federal crime. Sanctuary policies championed by these governors jeopardize the safety of Americans and defy U.S. immigration laws,” Rep. James Comer, a Kentucky Republican who chairs the panel, said in an X.com post.

Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson immediately pushed back. In 2021, Pritzker signed a bill into law that expanded the state’s existing sanctuary law, known as the TRUST Act.

“Let’s call this what this is: another partisan dog and pony show,” a Pritzker spokesman said. “Illinois’ Trust Act – which was signed into law by a Republican – is fully compliant with federal law and ensures law enforcement can focus on doing their actual jobs while empowering all members of the public – regardless of immigration status – to feel comfortable calling law enforcement to seek help, report crimes, and cooperate in investigations.”

The spokesman said the governor is evaluating whether he should take the time to “educate the House GOP on these matters.”

A spokesman for Johnson pledged that the mayor’s administration would “vigorously defend Chicagoans from any unconstitutional or unlawful attempts to strip residents of the funding they are entitled to.”

The city is set to receive $3.5 billion in federal grants this year, as well as $1.97 billion to subsidize the CTA’s Red Line Extension Project bus and subway project.

“The Department of Law will continue to assess any correspondence from the Trump administration that may impact Chicagoans in any way,” the spokesman added.

Trump has leveraged federal dollars for universities and law firms to produce policy changes, but it’s unclear whether he’ll prevail over state and local governments on immigration policy. A similar attempt to use an executive order to withhold federal funds from sanctuary cities was blocked in court during Trump’s first term.

While city and state attorneys general across the country ready their legal challenges, Trump’s Justice Department has already asked a federal judge to strike down sanctuary policies in Chicago.

More than 1,700 miles away, California leaders reacted to Trump’s latest shot across the bow with silence. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, who is facing a recall over her mishandling of the most deadly and destructive wildfires in the city’s history, on Thursday remained focused on wildfire rebuilding. She spent the day announcing a new partnership to rebuild a Palisades Recreation Center alongside Lakers Coach JJ Redick and her onetime political foe, Rick Caruso.

As Bass struggles to maintain her hold on power, the city is also facing budget woes. The deadly wildfires that ripped through Los Angeles erupted as city officials were struggling to close a $600 million budget gap. This month, the deficit was updated to nearly $1 billion.

Bass’ silence was particularly notable after her vocal support for sanctuary policies following Trump’s victory last fall. In November, Bass pushed for a City Council vote that formally designated Los Angeles as a sanctuary city even though the state already had the sanctuary protections in place for illegal immigrants charged with crimes.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom also remained mum on the topic Thursday. His office didn’t respond to RealClearPolitics’ request for comment on Trump’s threat to withhold federal funds, and his California governor X.com account reminded LA residents about an April 15 deadline for a free debris removal program and touted a “Cutting Green-Tape program” aimed at expediting environmental restoration programs.

A spokesperson for California Attorney General Rob Bonta said the office is “monitoring this issue closely, and we won’t hesitate to respond if the Trump administration attempts to delay or unlawfully condition funding to our states or cities.”

The timing of Trump’s latest attack on sanctuary city and state policies comes at a particularly awkward time for California’s top politicians. Police last week found the body of 13-year-old Oscar “Omar” Hernandez, who went missing last month, on the side of the road in Oxnard, California. The suspect, Mario Edgardo Garcia-Aquino, an illegal immigrant from El Salvador, was already under investigation by the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office for allegedly sexually assaulting at least two other teen boys.

In 2022, the Los Angeles Police Department investigated Garcia-Aquino for suspected sexual assault of a minor, but he was never charged because the alleged victim declined to testify against him. Both of Garcia-Aquino’s victims were connected to his soccer coaching, law enforcement authorities have said.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a statement on X describing Garcia-Aquino as a “depraved illegal alien who should never have been in this country.”

13 year-old Oscar "Omar" Hernandez was an innocent child who was exploited and killed by this depraved illegal alien who should have never been in this country.

Under President Trump and Secretary Noem’s leadership, child predators, pedophiles and murderers will be hunted down… https://t.co/Rl3DnOSgrV

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) April 8, 2025

“Under President Trump and Secretary Noem’s leadership, child predators, pedophiles, and murderers will be hunted down and removed from America’s communities,” the statement said.

Bass and Newsom are particularly reliant on federal aid in the aftermath of the Los Angeles wildfires, which has attracted national scrutiny to their management records. Earlier this year, the Trump administration vowed to place “strings” on the wildfire recovery assistance provided to California. Trump special envoy Richard Grenell, who is weighing a run for California governor, cited the state’s politics related to water and forestry. Trump previously had said assistance could depend on the state’s water, forestry, immigration, and voter ID policies.

Yet, in late March, Newsom touted continued federal support for disaster survivors and small businesses. He announced that aid from the U.S. Small Business Administration and Federal Emergency Management Agency had exceeded $2 billion.

“This federal disaster aid brings much-needed relief for impacted homeowners, renters, and businesses grappling with loss and damage,” Newsom said in a press release. “California is grateful to President Trump and our federal partners for making this recovery a priority.”

In February, Newsom asked Congress for nearly $40 billion in aid to help the Los Angeles area recover. Newsom and local officials are still waiting to see how Congress will respond and whether the aid will come with conditions.

Newsom’s office told Spectrum News this week that a bipartisan, multi-state disaster supplemental aid bill is expected to be introduced in Congress later this spring or early summer to support impacted homeowners and renters, businesses, health and human services, and wildfire and watershed resilience. 

The White House declined to say exactly what federal funds Trump was referring to in his social media post and whether he would try to withhold California wildfire rebuilding dollars in response to the state’s sanctuary laws. 

Meanwhile, Trump installed California Assemblyman Bill Essayli earlier this month as the new U.S. attorney for the Central District of California. The office is the largest U.S. attorney’s office outside the nation’s capital, with 250 attorneys at his disposal covering a wide swath of Southern and Central California.

Within days of assuming the post, Essayli, 39, launched an investigation into fraud and corruption in Los Angeles’ homeless programs after an audit found $2 billion unaccounted for in the county. He also pledged that one of his top priorities will be “prosecuting violent criminal illegal immigrants and those that aid and support them.”

“The days of sanctuary protections for criminals are over in California,” he pledged.

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 18:40

US Homeowners Must Earn $50,000 More Than Renters To Cover Shelter Payments: Report

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

American homeowners need to earn about $50,000 more than the typical renter to be able to afford monthly mortgage payments, according to new data from real estate brokerage Redfin.

“Americans need to earn $116,633 per year to afford the median-priced home for sale, 81.8 percent more than the $64,160 needed to afford the typical apartment for rent,” Redfin said in an April 10 statement.

In 2024, a person looking to buy a typical U.S. home could do so with earnings of about $110,808, $5,825 lower than this year. The amount needed to rent remained about the same.

According to the brokerage, a home is considered affordable when the homeowner spends no more than 30 percent of their income on the monthly housing payment.

Home prices have been going up at a swift pace with Freddie Mac-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates remaining above the 6 percent level for all of 2024 and 2025.

Redfin said an individual needed to earn just $63,925 to afford the typical home for sale in 2021. The latest data indicate an increase of more than 82 percent in the income required to purchase a home since then, based on current market conditions. The amount needed for a typical rental was then $54,520.

Mortgage rates have been undergoing considerable fluctuations recently, with broader economic uncertainty following President Donald Trump’s tariffs strategy to level the playing field for American exports.

The implementation of reciprocal tariffs was announced on April 2.

Rates jumped over the 7 percent level Friday, according to data from aggregator Mortgage News Daily.

The volatility in rates has been supported by corresponding movements in the U.S. Treasury bond yields.

The 10-year treasury yield has been on the increase since April 4, when it closed at 3.99 percent. As of April 11, it is at 4.50 percent.

Inflation Fears

When the 10-year Treasury yield increases, mortgage rates tend to follow. According to Mortgage News Daily, the yield saw its biggest week-over-week increase since 1981, indicating a subsequent uptick in mortgage rates, which have now crossed the 7 percent level.

Economic uncertainty has caused market turbulence with investors worrying about a possible spike in inflation. This has resulted in bond prices falling. Bond prices have an inverse relationship to treasury yields. Hence, yields have risen, lifting mortgage rates.

Defying market expectations, producer prices registered an unexpected drop in March, suggesting a lower chance for increased inflation.

The White House commended the inflation report in an April 10 statement, stating that it was “the first drop in consumer prices in several years.”

U.S. consumer optimism declined in April, according to the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey. Inflation fears had risen to the highest level in more than four decades, owing mainly to tariff uncertainty and the falling stock and bond markets.

Americans have been standing on the sidelines, unsure of making home purchases due to the persistently elevated mortgage rates.

When rates went down consecutively for three weeks, the number of mortgage purchase applications went up.

“Mortgage applications increased by 20 percent to its highest level since September 2024, driven by purchase and refinance applications picking up in a volatile week where economic uncertainty caused rates to drop across the board,” Mortgage Bankers Association Vice President Joel Kan said in an April 9 statement.

Home buying has been picking up pace in the United States since the start of April. As part of this, new property listings are rising.

“Tariffs are coming up for the first time. I hosted an open house over the weekend, and some of the younger buyers were concerned about how they’re going to impact the housing market,” Desiree Bourgeois, a Redfin Premier agent in Detroit, said in an April 10 statement.

"They’re hearing the words ‘tariffs’ and ‘recession,’ and it’s making them nervous that if they buy now, the value of their home will decline, and they don’t know whether mortgage rates will go up or down. There’s a lot of uncertainty out there, with buyers trying to understand how their purchase would fit into their personal finances and the broader economic puzzle.”

The median home sale price is $386,500, as of April 6, Redfin said, with the asking price at $426,910 and a monthly mortgage rate of $2,813.

There were almost a million active market listings with 100,661 new listings.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 17:30

Zelensky Announces Western Supplied F-16 Shot Down, Pilot Killed

In a rare moment, Ukraine's military as well as President Zelensky have announced that a Western-supplied F-16 fighter jet was shot down Saturday while conducing operations over Ukraine. Zelensky confirmed the pilot's death in an announcement. 

The Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) command has identified the that 26-year-old fighter pilot Pavlo Ivanov was killed during a combat mission in an F-16 Viper fighter aircraft.

Image: Ukraine's Air Force

Ukraine has not released details or the location of the plane downing, but both Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers have described the F-16 Viper was struck by a surface-to-air missile.

There's been some speculation that it may have been a 'friendly fire' incident - but these details aren't known at this point. The military's statement said that the country's F-16 pilots operate "in incredibly difficult conditions" and that the pilot died while "defending his native land from the occupiers," according to a translation.

This only the second officially revealed downing of a Western-supplied F-16. "Saturday's loss is only the second confirmed F-16 loss that Ukraine has faced, delivering a symbolic blow to Kyiv's forces," Newsweek writes.

"The F-16 aircraft are more advanced than the Soviet-era aircraft Ukraine's forces had been using for much of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war that began in February 2022. The aircrafts delivery from European allies was also hoped to change the battlefield calculus," the report notes.

A Ukrainian Air Force message said there will be an investigation: "All the circumstances of the tragedy are being established by an interdepartmental commission," it said.

Zelensky's message posted to social media in English and Ukrainian began as follows:

Today, Captain Pavlo Ivanov was tragically killed during an F-16 combat mission. The guy was only 26. My condolences to his family and to all of Pavlo’s brothers-in-arms.

The first known downing of an F-16 over Ukraine happened last summer:

It is the second confirmed death of a Ukrainian F-16 pilot. On August 26, 2024, Oleksii "Moonfish" Mes, was killed when he was reportedly responding to a Russian missile attack.

He had visited the United States in 2022 to lobby for the aircraft to be sent to Ukraine. In May 2023, the Biden administration allowed other countries to provide Kyiv with the U.S.-made aircraft.

The F-16 program has been ultra controversial as pilots were hastily trained in both Europe and the United States. Moscow has complained that F-16s are actually capable of carrying NATO nukes, and so has warned a mishap could lead to WW3.

How many experienced F-16 pilots does Ukraine have left? pic.twitter.com/3BSOoaO3TL

— Gabe (@GabeZZOZZ) April 12, 2025

Russia has vowed to destroy the F-16s both in the air and on the ground, and as even in the recent past warned that if they take off from neighboring countries then those European bases are fair game for attack. This would certainly spark direct conflict with the Western military alliance.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 16:55

US Judge Declines To Block Immigration Raids At Churches

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge on April 11 declined to prevent Department of Homeland Security agents from conducting immigration raids at churches.

A man is detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in Los Angeles, Calif. on Oct. 14, 2015. John Moore/Getty Images

“At least at this juncture and on this record, the plaintiffs have not made the requisite showing of a ‘credible threat’ of enforcement,” U.S. District Judge Dabney Friedrich of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia wrote in an opinion.

The ruling came in a case brought by religious groups, including the Mennonite Church USA.

The federal government’s new policy, announced after President Donald Trump took office, rescinded a policy labeling churches and schools as sensitive places, making it easier for agents to carry out immigration enforcement at these locations.

The groups said the policy unconstitutionally interferes with their exercise of religion.

“Immigration agents already have begun exercising this newfound authority to snare worshippers and other visitors at Plaintiffs’ places of worship, inflicting grave harm on Plaintiffs’ ability to freely exercise their religious beliefs and to assemble,” the plaintiffs said in a motion for a preliminary injunction, or an order blocking the policy. “Absent preliminary relief, these enforcement activities in and near sacred spaces will multiply and so, too, will the intense burden this government action places on Plaintiffs’ religious exercise.”

Government lawyers said in a filing in response that the groups’ only outlined possible injury from future immigration raids, which was insufficient to prove standing. They also said that “those speculative harms are outweighed by the Government’s strong interest in immigration enforcement and avoiding interference with discretionary law enforcement decisions.”

Friedrich noted that just one enforcement action has taken place at one of the plaintiffs’ churches, with another four reporting immigration agents having conducted surveillance at or near their premises. She said that the evidence presented by the parties showed that churches and other places of worship are not being singled out as special targets by DHS agents.

“Absent evidence of specific directives to immigration officers to target plaintiffs’ places of worship, or a pattern of enforcement actions, the Court finds no credible threat of imminent enforcement,” she wrote. “Accordingly, the plaintiffs lack standing to assert a pre-enforcement challenge.”

Friedrich also said that the religious organizations have not shown that drops in attendance are linked to the new policy, as opposed to the government’s broader effort to arrest illegal immigrants. Evidence exists indicating congregants are staying home not to avoid agents at churches, but because agents may be in their neighborhoods, she said.

The denial means the policy will remain enforceable as the case proceeds. The court could eventually rule in favor of the plaintiffs.

A separate case challenging the same policy, lodged by Quakers in federal court in Maryland, resulted in a different U.S. judge ruling that immigration agents cannot make arrests at churches belonging to the plaintiffs.

U.S. District Judge Theodore Chuang, the judge, wrote in his order that the policy lacked “meaningful limitations or safeguards” on enforcement and “likely does not satisfy these constitutional and statutory requirements as to Plaintiffs.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 15:10

Watch: Bill Maher Says 'Mind Blown' After Meeting With Trump

While Bill Maher may change opinions like a windsock depending on who he's pandering to, the "Real Time" host told his mostly-Democrat audience that Donald Trump, aka Hitler-Stalin-Mussolini, was "gracious and measured" at their recent meeting last week.

We know, duh... but considering the influence Maher has on the left, his comments are interesting nonetheless.

Image via Inside Edition

"You can hate me for it, but I'm not a liar. Trump was gracious and measured," Maher said. "And why isn't that in other settings- I don't know, and I can't answer, and it's not my place to answer. I'm just telling you what I saw, and I wasn't high."

Maher said the meeting, brokered by their mutual friend Kid Rock, wasn't "some kind of summit."

"I have no power. I'm a fucking comedian, and he's the most powerful leader in the world!" he continued. "I'm not the leader of anything, except maybe a contingent of centrist-minded people who think there's got to be a better way of running this country than hating each other every minute."

Maher admitted that he went in ready for a fight - only to find Trump absolutely charming.

"Everything I’ve not liked about him was, I swear to God, absent. At least on this night, with this guy," Maher, 69, said - seemingly shocked at his own admission.

"I never felt I had to walk on eggshells around him. And honestly, I voted for Clinton and Obama, but I would never feel comfortable talking to them the way I was able to talk with Donald Trump," he continued, adding "Make of it what you will."

"I’ve had so many conversations with prominent people who are much less connected. People that don’t look you in the eye. People that don’t really listen because they just want to get to their next thing. People whose response to things you say just doesn’t track. None of that with him," Maher continued. "Mostly he steered the conversation to ‘what do you think about this?’ I know. Your mind is blown. So is mine."

Maher added that Trump gave him a bunch of MAGA hats, which are stored in the same room where former President Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky engaged in extracurricular activities.

At one point in the dinner, Maher says Trump asked him about his thoughts on the Iran nuclear situation. After he allegedly gave Trump shit for eliminating the Obama-era nuclear deal, Trump "didn’t get mad or call me a left-wing lunatic. He took it in."

Trump admitted he 'lost' in 2020 (allegedly)

According to Maher, Trump used the word 'lost' in relation to the 2020 presidential election.

"And I distinctly remember saying, ‘Wow, I never thought I’d hear you say that.’ He didn’t get mad. He’s much more self-aware than he lets on in public," Maher said, adding that in private, Trump is just normal.

"Just for starters, he laughs," Maher stated in disbelief. "I’d never seen him laugh in public. But he does — including at himself — and it’s not fake. Believe me, as a comedian of forty years, I know a fake laugh when I hear it."

Watch:

Twelve days ago, I had dinner with President Trump, a dinner that my friend @KidRock set up because we share the belief that there has to be something better than hurling insults from 3000 miles away. pic.twitter.com/KE2t2eyBkI

— Bill Maher (@billmaher) April 12, 2025

Meanwhile, journalist Laura Loomer is jumping all over conservative "Bill Maher Simps," while she says she had "a productive week in Cali, which included my deposition of Bill Maher," who she's suing for defamation.

So sick of Bill Maher Simps.

Conservatives are so desperate to be friends with people who hate them.

All I know is I had a productive week in Cali, which included my deposition of Bill Maher @billmaher.

It’s all on video and transcribed.

You won’t see me kissing his ass.

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) April 12, 2025

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 14:35

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Trump Urges Congress to Work Harder To Make Daylight Saving Permanent

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump has offered his support for the “lock the clock” movement.

“The House and Senate should push hard for more Daylight at the end of a day,” calling the time change “a big inconvenience and, for our government, A VERY COSTLY EVENT!!!” he wrote in an April 11 Truth Social post.

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on April 10, 2025, in Washington. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Trump’s comments came a day after a bipartisan group of lawmakers conducted a hearing on making daylight saving time permanent.

The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation hearing, titled “If I Could Turn Back Time: Should We Lock The Clock?” featured testimony from experts in the public and private sectors, as well as health care experts, all advocating for the push to stop the twice-yearly time change.

Daylight saving time was initially a World War I strategy to reduce energy consumption in the evenings.

According to Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Cruz (R-Texas), however, energy efficiency and technological advancements show that currently, the hour change no longer has cost-saving benefits.

“Congress has the authority to end this outdated and harmful practice. This hearing is an excellent opportunity to examine a thoughtful and rational approach to how we manage time,” Cruz said in his opening remarks.

“Whether we lock the clock on Standard Time year-round or daylight saving time, let’s put our health, the economy, and well-being first and embrace a sensible approach to time management.”

Sen. Scott (R-Fla.) introduced the Sunshine Protection Act on Jan. 7 of this year. It has been referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation but has not yet been brought to a vote.

The senator spoke to the committee, encouraging quick action on the bill.

Scott called the time change “confusing, unnecessary, and completely outdated.”

He said his bipartisan legislation had the support of 17 senators and that Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) has introduced a companion bill in the House of Representatives.

“We have a great opportunity to finally get this done with President Trump on board to lock the clock,” Scott said.

Hearing witnesses included representatives from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, the National Golf Course Owners Association, and the Lock the Clock Movement.

All of the testimony provided supported ending the twice-yearly time change, citing health, safety, and economic concerns.

While there is widespread support for locking the clock, not everyone agrees on where it should be frozen.

Standard time dictates that the time is defined by the sun’s position, whereas daylight saving time offers darker mornings and brighter evenings throughout spring and summer.

Expert Opinions

Trump has voiced his support for more daylight at the end of the day, making daylight saving time the likely model going forward.

The same schedule was promoted by Jay Karen, CEO of the National Golf Course Owners Association, who testified about the economic impact of the changing clocks on the golf industry.

Karen emphasized the benefits of additional daylight for outdoor recreation, saying that making standard time permanent would cost the golf industry an estimated $1.6 billion in annual revenue.

“Trading [time] backward would cost the average public golf course at least seven to eight percent of their annual revenue by removing the best inventory we have from on our shelves, which is approximately 37 million rounds of golf,” Karen said.

Dr. David Harkey, the president of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, testified about the road safety implications of the time change to daylight saving time, saying that the change was associated with an increased risk of fatal crashes.

Harkey noted that while adjusting the clock doesn’t increase the number of daylight hours, it can change how those hours align with work and school schedules.

“The clearest takeaway from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s research is that there is a strong relationship between increased darkness and fatal crashes, particularly for pedestrians and bicyclists,” he said.

Dr. Karen Johnson, a practicing sleep medicine physician and representative of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, cited evidence of the negative health impacts of changing the clocks, including an increased risk of chronic disease, depression, and suicide.

“Permanent standard time would get more Americans to get the opportunity to improve their sleep without even trying,” Johnson said.

“The sun is one of the most powerful drivers of health and well-being, but the timing of sunlight is what’s critically important.”

Johnson strongly advocates for permanent standard time, saying that daylight saving time would deprive Americans of critical morning light and that while the spring clock change is bad, “permanent daylight saving time is worse.”

“Permanent daylight saving time does not make days longer, nor is it the reason why people feel better in the summer,” Johnson said.

“Instead, permanent daylight saving time is a hidden mandate to wake Americans up an hour earlier, rather than to their alarm clocks or the sun.

“If we called it the ‘Go to Work An Hour Earlier Act,’ rather than the ‘Sunshine Protection Act,’ no one would be voting for it.”

Scott Yates, the founder of the Lock the Clock Movement, testified to a number of negative repercussions attributed to the yearly time changes, including sentencing for convicted offenders.

A 2016 study by researchers at the University of Washington found that sentences handed down over an 11-year period found that the day after the March daylight saving time change, referenced as “sleepy Monday,” was the harshest sentencing day of the entire year.

“Judges, like all of us, have been jolted awake an hour earlier than their bodies have been expecting; that one seemingly harmless government mandate, dialing our clocks back one hour, means some people receive harsher sentences than they otherwise would,” Yates said.

Public Opinion

A January Gallup poll showed that 54 percent of Americans are ready to abolish daylight saving time, 40 percent of adults say they’re in favor of it, and another 6 percent are uncertain.

The poll was the first time Gallup has measured public opinion on the practice in more than 25 years.

In 1999, a whopping 73 percent of Americans favored the March time change, which was a small change from nine years earlier in 1990, when 74 percent supported the practice.

A 2022 Monmouth poll found that 13 percent of Americans prefer standard time year-round, and 44 percent of Americans prefer that daylight saving time be used consistently.

Another 35 percent were amenable to the twice-yearly change.

Former Florida senator and current Secretary of State Marco Rubio previously championed locking the clock, introducing the Sunshine Protection Act to the 118th Congress in March 2023.

His bill also enjoyed bipartisan support from a group of senators from Oklahoma, Alabama, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Florida, Mississippi, and Oregon.

In his push for the legislation, Rubio offered several similar arguments to those found in the current debate and also cited a 2015 report by the Brookings Institution indicating that a potential benefit of permanent daylight time is decreased robberies due to the additional daylight in the evenings.

While daylight saving time was first introduced during World War I, it was amended in 2005 when Congress extended it so it would start on the second Sunday in March and terminate on the first Sunday in November instead of the initial six-month mandate.

As a result, there are currently eight months of daylight time in the United States and only four months of standard time.

The United States has experienced year-round daylight saving time in two periods: from 1942 to 1945 and from 1974 to 1975.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 14:00

Several Charts To Put DOGE Efforts In Perspective

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

It costs more to be an American now than it did five years ago—more than 50 percent more. The U.S. government spent more than half again as much in 2024 as it did in 2019, and interest payments on the national debt more than doubled during that time, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Since 2019, federal spending, the national debt, and the size of the federal bureaucracy have all grown rapidly. Federal regulations also increased over the half-decade, with some 290 additional rules and nearly 10 million words added to administrative law books.

President Donald Trump’s effort to reduce the size and scope of the federal government, mainly through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has met with some early success. There have also been roadblocks in the form of legal challenges and public protests.

Here’s an overview of recent trends in federal spending, borrowing, and staffing that lend perspective to the scope of current and planned reductions to the federal bureaucracy.

Federal spending grew by about 55 percent from 2019 to 2024. The initial increase appears to have been driven by COVID-19-related spending, which trended down beginning in 2021. Yet even before the public health emergency was declared over in May 2023, spending began to increase again.

Meanwhile, the median household income in the United States declined slightly over that period. At the end of 2023, the last date for which data is available, the typical American family was earning $600 less per year than in 2019.

Spending grew faster than the nation’s economy, measured as the gross domestic product; the total value of all goods and services sold.

The fastest-growing category of federal spending is interest on the national debt, which more than doubled during that period. Interest payments on the national debt (not including repaying the debt itself) now cost more than any single government program except Social Security. America pays more to its lenders than it pays for national defense, Medicaid, or Medicare.

Spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, other entitlement programs, and interest on the debt is mandatory because it is dictated by longstanding federal laws. Other defense spending and other non-defense spending are considered discretionary because Congress sets those amounts each year.

The national debt grew by 56 percent from 2019 to 2024, topping $35 trillion. Since 2012, it has exceeded the value of all goods and services sold in the United States, known as the gross domestic product. As of 2024, the federal debt was about 120 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product.

From 2019 to 2024, federal revenue increased by 40 percent from $3.5 trillion to $4.9 trillion.

To compare the changes in income and debt over that period in everyday terms, a family earning a household income of $60,000 in 2019 could have increased its salary to $72,000 by 2024. Over the same five years the family had credit card debt and student loans that increased from $390,000 to $520,000.

The federal workforce grew significantly from 2019 to 2024. Discounting the approximately 500,000 temporary employees hired to conduct the 2020 census, the federal government grew by about 150,000 during those five years. That increase is more than the total number of people employed by either Boeing or Verizon.

The federal government employs about 3.1 million people, not including the military or federal contractors. Contractors are people employed by private companies to perform work for the federal government, such as processing Medicare claims.

Uncle Sam employs more people than Walmart and nearly double that of Amazon. The federal government is the largest employer in 37 states.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 12:50

Trump Orders Military To Seal Southern Border As US Accelerates Hemispheric Defense

Days after NBC reported that the Trump administration had considered launching drone strikes on drug cartels in Mexico, President Trump issued a memorandum Friday night to the heads of four federal departments, expanding the U.S. military's role in securing the southern border in accordance with Executive Order 14167 (Clarifying the Military's Role in Protecting the Territorial Integrity of the United States) and Proclamation 10886 (Declaring a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States). The move aligns with a broader strategic theme known as hemispheric defense.

The memo, titled "Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions," was sent to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

It states, "Our southern border is under attack from a variety of threats. The complexity of the current situation requires that our military take a more direct role in securing our southern border than in the recent past." 

Here's a breakdown of the memo:

Key Objectives:

Repel border invasion and seal the U.S.–Mexico border from unlawful entry.

Empower the Department of Defense (DoD) to use federal lands (excluding Indian Reservations) for:

• Military operations,
• Border barrier construction,
• Surveillance infrastructure,
• Designation of National Defense Areas.

Agency Coordination:

Secretaries of Defense, Interior, Agriculture, and Homeland Security must coordinate to:

• Transfer jurisdiction of necessary lands to DoD.
• Allow military installations and operations on designated federal land (e.g., Roosevelt Reservation).
• Expedite land withdrawals under 43 U.S.C. 155 to bypass Engle Act restrictions.

Rules of Engagement:

• Armed Forces to operate under DoD-prescribed rules of force.
• Installation commanders maintain authority to exclude individuals under 10 U.S.C. § 2672 and 50 U.S.C. § 797.

Implementation Timeline:

• Initial Phase: Conducted on a limited sector of federal land.
• Within 45 Days: DoD to assess and potentially expand operations to more sectors.

Trump mandated that the U.S. military beef up its presence along the southern border days after NBC reported that Trump administration officials mulled over kinetically dismantling the command and control structures of Mexican drug cartels now designated as terrorists. As previously noted, two months of signals intelligence have been conducted across the region via U.S. military spy planes.

Border apprehensions hit a record low in February -- which, ironically, could make it harder to justify invoking the Insurrection Act to deal with a border "invasion" (chart via Axios)

The broader theme readers should understand is that securing the border plays into a much larger theme of national and hemispheric defense across the Americas. Hence, a push for stronger economic integration between the United States and Canada, coupled with a hardened defense perimeter stretching from the Arctic to the Panama Canal. 

Boosting hemispheric defense doesn't stop with the southern border, Panama, Canada, or Greenland, but also the American financial system. The number one mission has been ridding the system of Chinese Triads and cartel terrorists, hence the TD Bank AML penalty. All of this is preparing the Americas for 2030 to challenge China. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 12:15

Might Of The Living Feds: The Need To Tackle The 1,500+ 'Zombie' Gov't Departments

Authored by Bob Ivry, Jeremy Portnoy and RealClearInvestigations,

In 1974, Congress created the Legal Services Corporation to connect lower-income Americans involved in civil disputes with free legal help. The law that established the agency stipulated that authorization for its funding would expire in 1980, when lawmakers were required to vote on whether to keep it alive.

The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on April 3, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

They never did. Still, Congress has funded LSC every year since. In fiscal 2025, its 51st year, LSC’s 135 employees will spend 95 percent of its now $560 million annual budget paying legal groups to represent Americans in cases such as eviction, domestic violence, and disputes over government benefits, according to Ron Flagg, the agency’s president since 2020.

“LSC would welcome reauthorization,” Flagg said. “We haven’t hidden from it. Every budget cycle, we go through an exhaustive process before Congress appropriates funds — dozens of meetings with leaders of both parties. We demonstrate our return on investment, how we help 2 million Americans get life-saving legal help.”

The Legal Services Corp. now stands as America’s oldest “Zombie” program, but it’s far from unique. At a time when the Trump administration is moving aggressively to scale back government, including eliminating the entire Education Department, it’s sobering to note that 1,503 agencies or programs live on despite expired authorizations, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Another 155 will expire on Sept. 30. The Zombies, nearly half of which have been officially dead for more than a decade, persist in a budgetary netherworld. In a deep dive last year, CBO analysts were able to find dollar amounts for 491 of the programs, with total expenditures of $516 billion. They don’t know how much funding the other programs received.

The total federal budget in 2024 was $6.8 trillion, meaning expired Zombie programs take up at least 8 percent of the budget, and likely much more.

“A lot of programs don’t get reauthorized because Congress is okay with how they’re operating,” said Josh Huder, former congressional staffer now at the Georgetown University Government Affairs Institute. “They continue to get annual appropriations because most members think they’re worthwhile.”

Many Zombie programs now soak up far more funding than lawmakers originally envisioned. The Federal Election Commission, for example, was expected to spend $9.4 million per year before its authorization expired in 1981. Yet the agency continued to receive funding and spent $95 million in 2024, auditors at government watchdog Open The Books found. The Federal Communications Commission was originally allocated $339.6 million per year. Its funding authorization expired in 2020, yet it spent $28.4 billion last year.

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency hasn’t addressed the Zombies that are prowling the federal spreadsheets. Given DOGE’s headlong push to first root out alleged waste, fraud, and abuse and ask questions later, experts say, Zombies may offer a ripe target.

“One could imagine that if DOGE is clued into the notion of expired authorizations, they’ll think a program is defunct,” said Sarah Binder, senior fellow at Brookings and professor of political science at George Washington University. She said this would be a mistake. “If Congress is still appropriating money to the programs, they’re not Zombies. They’re living, breathing agencies.”

Binder says the fault lies not with the agencies, some of which have become important enough to be household names, but Congress. Lawmakers have made it so difficult to accomplish their most fundamental tasks, such as funding the government for another year, that they hardly ever get around to doing other important things, such as reauthorizing existing programs.

The Foreign Relations Authorization Act, for example, expired in 2003. Yet in 2024, Congress spent $38.4 billion on 24 of the law’s programs, allowing legislators to influence the White House’s foreign policy and security assistance to other nations.

The House Committee on Energy and Commerce, now led by Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY), supported the funding of 346 expired programs, more than any other committee, the CBO found. The Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, now chaired by Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), spent more identifiable money than any other group: $153.5 billion.

“Congress’ job doesn’t stop when they allocate the money,” said Casey Burgat, professor at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management. “They have to oversee it. And when they fail to do that they open themselves up to somebody else doing that. In this case, an aggressive executive branch in the form of DOGE.”

Of the 1,503 agencies or programs, 22 remain alive that required a reauthorization vote as long ago as the 1980s, according to the CBO. In addition to the Legal Services Corp., whose authorization expired in 1980, and the FEC (a 1981 reauthorization deadline), the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, which oversees the country’s power grids (1984) and the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, whose data informs U.S. policymaking (1984), are among the Zombies pushing middle age.

Congress has appropriated annual funding for EIA since its inception in 1977, the agency said in an emailed statement. “Subsequent legislation has continued to direct EIA to conduct data collection, analysis and dissemination activities consistent with our mission as the nation’s premier source of energy information.” Spokespeople for the FEC, FERC, and the CBO declined to comment.

Another Zombie, the U.S. African Development Foundation—whose authorization expired in 1987—made headlines earlier this month when its officials blocked DOGE staff from entering their offices in Washington.

Congress has a history of denying or skipping reauthorizations. In the 1980s and 90s, former North Carolina Republican Sen. Jesse Helms became famous for holding up authorizations of the State Department, which he often found insufficiently vigilant against communism. The frequent flare-ups between Helms and the diplomats of State earned him the nickname “Senator No.” And NASA, the widely respected space program, recently went through periods of time when Congress funded it but didn’t reauthorize it.

The CBO’s list of 1,000-plus agencies and programs with expired reauthorization deadlines offers a window into the variety and volume of federal government activity, from grants to remove lead from drinking water and protect against radon to collecting statistics on prison rape. Lawmakers seem to be nursing a mild obsession with fish. Over the years, they’ve funded without reauthorization a herring study, for instance, and programs to help Atlantic striped bass and tuna thrive. It seems part of a larger interest in wildlife, which includes conservation programs for elephants, rhinos, and tigers and the control and eradication of the venomous brown tree snake, an invasive pest infamous for devouring a scary chunk of Guam’s bird population.

Environmental and health programs populate the list, from monitoring water quality at beaches and the Energy Star appliance program to medical care for children with asthma and funding for the National Center for Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities. There are also provisions for improving airport security, protection for railroad first responders, and working capital for the Department of Homeland Security. Like a cherry on top, there’s also funding for the Office of Government Ethics.

Congress, whose 29 percent job-approval rating in February was the highest in four years, would probably “have a hard time assembling a list of programs that they’ve authorized,” said Burgat of George Washington University. “It’s a power void.”

‘Congress Doesn’t Have the Time’

‘DOGE steps into that vacuum with constitutional limitations. In 1974, Congress enacted the Impoundment Control Act, which prohibits presidents from refusing to spend the money that Congress allocates.

The Trump administration has challenged the constitutionality of the impoundment law, and DOGE is an ongoing test of the separation of powers between the legislative branch and the executive.

“Authorizations and appropriations are both law,” said Brookings’ Binder. “As long as Congress is voting to spend money on these programs, it would be an impoundment to close them. It would be unconstitutional.”

To remedy the situation, Congress would have to go through the list of Zombies and decide whether to reauthorize each one, a tedious process that evidently has hovered nowhere near the top of its priority list. “Congress doesn’t have the time to do good institutional housecleaning,” Binder said. “There are a lot of little programs, but also a good deal of big ones. They don’t have the capacity to keep tabs on the authorizations.”

For now, Ron Flagg of Legal Services Corp. waits with a cautious optimism, wary about how DOGE will perceive his agency but confident that after a half century, LSC has the ability to stand up for itself.

“During the first Trump administration we got a raise in money because Congress members don’t view our work as a partisan issue,” Flagg said. “LSC has an ability to go to Congress with the facts. We publish grants, we tell you how many people were served and how many cases were closed and how technology has been advanced and how funding has been leveraged by volunteers. We’re able to make those points to Congress as part as the annual funding process.

“I’m not sure other agencies have the same ability to advocate for the quality of their work.”

From RealClearInvestigations

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 11:40

NYPD Seeks Suspect Accused Of Having Sex With A Homeless Man's Corpse On Subway

Just another day in New York City, another man wanted by New York City police for allegedly committing a disturbing act in a subway car.

How much more disturbing can things get in New York? 

Try this one on for size: authorities say the suspect engaged in sexual misconduct with the corpse of a homeless man on a southbound R train near the Whitehall Street station around 12:30 a.m. Wednesday, according to ABC 7.

Investigators believe the victim died of natural causes prior to the incident and that the suspect did not know him. The suspect was last seen wearing a blue baseball cap, black hooded jacket, yellow hoodie, jeans, red and white sneakers, and carrying a backpack.

The suspect reportedly left the Whitehall Street station shortly after midnight, the Post added. 

He is a heroin addict who had been living with his brother in the Bronx after getting out of prison, the brother told The Post.

“He has never done anything like this in his life — not what they said he did. I don’t think that he did that. He’s not that type of person,” he said. “They said he took his thing out and put it in the guy’s … yeah I don’t think he did that he’s not a pervert.”

The family is “in shock” and “mad,” and believes police need to investigate further.

“No matter how bad the heroin addiction is, he’s not like that,” his brother added. Police are also looking for a woman who gave the victim a cigarette before he died and was later seen going through his pockets. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 11:05



 

 

Chuck Jaffe:

“How NOT to Invest — which is about 375 pages of cautionary tales and 75 pages of the right things to do — notes that it’s easier to invest well than most people think.”

I come in around the 4:40 mark…

https://moneylifeshow.libsyn.com/economist-furman-sees-tariffs-as-a-possible-trigger-to-a-recession

 

 

 

The post Money Life: How NOT to Invest appeared first on The Big Picture.

Last Gasp Of The Landfill Economy

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise.

Globalization's great gift wasn't low prices--it was the collapse of durability, transforming the global economy into a Landfill Economy of shoddy products made of low-cost components guaranteed to fail, poor quality control, planned obsolescence and accelerated product cycles--all hyper-profitable, all to the detriment of consumers and the planet.

Globalization also accelerated another hyper-profitable gambit: . Since all the products are now made with the same low-quality components, they all fail regardless of brand or price. The $2,000 refrigerator lasts no longer than the $700 fridge. Since the manufacturers and retailers all know the products are destined for the landfill by either design or default, warranties are uniformly one-year--and it's semi-miraculous if the consumer can find anyone to act on replacing or repairing the failed product even with the warranty.

In The Landfill Economy, Consumer choice is pure illusion. I'd like to buy once, cry once, so where is the option with a 10-year all parts and labor warranty? There isn't one, because nothing is durable--by design or default.

As a result, The Landfill Economy is fundamentally extortionist. We know this product will fail, you know this product will fail, and so here's our offer: buy a 3-year extended warranty for a hefty sum, because we've engineered the product to fail in four years.

If the product is digital, then even if it still functions, we'll force you to replace it via a new product cycle: we no longer support the old operating system, and since your device is out of date (heh) it can't load the new OS, and since all the apps now only function with the new OS, your device is useless.

The low price is also illusory, as we now have to buy four, five or ten products instead of one durable product. Appliances that once lasted 40 years now fail in 6 or 7 years if not sooner, so over the course of 40 years we have to buy five, six or seven appliances instead of one.

Note that these durable products weren't super-expensive commercial appliances; they were ordinary consumer appliances produced domestically in vast quantities.

Digitization is a key driver of The Landfill Economy, as cheap electronics all fail, and the product / vehicle / tool becomes a brick. Since inventory is an expense, it's been eliminated, so parts for older products are soon out of stock and unavailable.

In a few years, the firmware is no longer supported, and in a few decades, nobody will even know what coding was embedded in the chipset, but it won't matter anyway, because the chipsets are long gone.

Readers tell me vehicles are now wondrously reliable. Um, yeah, until they need to be repaired. Then the cost is higher than what I've paid for entire used cars.

A friend was showing us his 1957 Chevrolet Bel-Air. Unlike the stainless steal and low-quality chrome of today, the original parts are still untarnished. Since the entire vehicle is analog, parts can be scrounged or fabricated or swapped out with a similar set-up.

Does anyone seriously believe that a chipset-software-dependent vehicle today will still be running 68 years from now? Analog parts can be cast or welded; customized chipsets and firmware coding cannot. The original components will all be history.

Our friend recounted a very typical story about repairing his recent-model pickup truck. Since the engine was no longer responding to the accelerator, he borrowed a diagnostic computer (horribly expensive to maintain due to the extortionist monthly fee to keep the software upgraded) and came up with zip, zero, nada.

After swapping out the fuel pump at great expense and finding the problem persisted, he went online to YouTube University and found one video that explained the relay box from the accelerator to the engine didn't show up in the diagnostic codes, so the problem could not be identified.

The relay box cost $400, and likely consisted of components worth no more than a few dollars each. So after $1,000 in parts and his own labor, the problem was finally fixed. If this qualifies as "super-reliable and maintenance-free," then the diagnosis is obvious: mass delusion.

So now the status quo is desperate to maintain the global assembly lines feeding the hyper-profitable Landfill Economy. This may well be the last gasp of The Landfill Economy, as the supply chains of shoddy products designed to fail will break and consumers may well awaken to the high cost over time of an economy based on planned obsolescence, accelerated product cycles and extortionist illusions of choice.

Last week I bought an expensive portable solar panel manufactured in China from a local distributor. The U.S. brand distributing the product has a good reputation for quality. Of course the warranty is for one year.

The panel failed in less than a week: I smelled the unmistakable odor of an electrical short (insulation melting) and noticed the plastic rectangle that the output cord extended from was dimpled by high heat. The plastic part had no visible way to open it, and no visible way to replace it. So the entire panel is unrepairable.

(The local distributor had one in stock, so I was able to get a replacement. Here's hoping it has a non-defective set of components.)

It's doubtful anyone has the parts in stock, and it's also doubtful that it could be repaired even if one pried open the plastic casing to examine the melted bits. The parts are in one place--the factory that assembled the panel.

So this panel, manufactured at great expense of costly materials, will end up in the landfill after five days of service. And no, it won't be recycled, as there's no system to do so, and it doesn't make financial sense to even try.

Wow, isn't The Landfill Economy fantastic? Look how profitable it is, as consumers must constantly replace or repair at great expense everything that comes off the wonderful global supply chains. And since we worship "growth" and profits, The Landfill Economy is the ideal arrangement--for those making and selling all the stuff.

For the consumers--not so much, but who cares, since they have no choice but to keep buying shoddy products designed to fail.

Add the defective solar panel to the long list of other failed products in our household: the iPhone screen that failed, the washer that failed, the dryer that failed (which I was able to fix by replacing the motherboard, which only cost half the price of a new dryer with my "free" labor), the failed fridge, defective toaster from Walmart, shoes from Costco that fell apart in a few months, and the failed AC system in our 2016 Honda Civic. (Mention this to any mechanic and they quickly nod, "oh yeah, those all fail.")

All of this failure generates "growth" and profits, the two Grails every economist worships. Here's another load of "growth" going straight into the landfill.

It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 10:30

Minority Report: UK Government Developing 'Murder Prediction' Program

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The UK government is in the process of developing a system to predict whether people will commit homicide in the future.

What could possibly go wrong with that?

The idea is the literal plot line of Philip K. Dick’s dystopian story ‘Minority Report,’ where individuals are arrested before they are able to commit crimes thanks to a ‘precrime’ predictive policing system.

It’s the exact same thing, minus the mutant human precogs. In reality the program will be much more boring, using ‘algorithms’ to churn through data and spit out results.

Given that the data will presumably include spicy social media posts, which are now being punished with prison sentences in the UK, you can see where this is going.

UK: The UK is now testing software designed to predict whether someone might become a future killer. Drawing on vast troves of government data, this “homicide prediction” project builds individual risk profiles, turning bureaucratic files into digital crystal balls. It’s Minority… pic.twitter.com/bVF1n74GD1

— @amuse (@amuse) April 9, 2025

The Guardian reports:

The UK government is developing a ‘murder prediction’ programme which it hopes can use personal data of those known to the authorities to identify the people most likely to become killers.

Researchers are alleged to be using algorithms to analyse the information of thousands of people, including victims of crime, as they try to identify those at greatest risk of committing serious violent offences.

The scheme was originally called the ‘homicide prediction project,’ but its name has been changed to ‘sharing data to improve risk assessment.’ The Ministry of Justice hopes the project will help boost public safety but campaigners have called it ‘chilling and dystopian.’

The UK government is developing a “murder prediction” programme which it hopes can use personal data of those known to the authorities to identify the people most likely to become killers, called “chilling and dystopian” by campaigners https://t.co/pE0VDBHmrM

— HJA Civil Liberties (@HJAcivillibs) April 9, 2025

Questions…

That's sketchy but the real question is... What happens if the algorithm says you would be one? Preventative measures, pre crime jail sentences or?

— Zperlond (@Zperlond1) April 9, 2025

@amuse Plenty could go wrong with the UK's homicide prediction project. Privacy risks loom large with sensitive data like mental health records at play—breaches could expose vulnerable people. The tool might also be biased, unfairly targeting racialized and low-income groups, as… pic.twitter.com/b2qqdTAoBI

— Grok (@grok) April 9, 2025

Can you imagine…

“Sir, the results have come in, it seems like every non British person is on the list”

— Lord Miles Official (@real_lord_miles) April 9, 2025

Awesome! I was always hoping we could arrest criminals BEFORE they commit crimes. I'm sure this will be implemented even-handedly....in a country where you get imprisoned for mean words. Totally nothing to worry about here....

— Husker4Life (@NE_good_life) April 9, 2025

Another backdrop to all this is the fact that the government just enacted racially biased criminal codes to punish white men more harshly than women or minorities.

“White men are going to be treated a lot tougher by judges from Tuesday, compared to other groups.” Starmer

RIP UK. There is no coming back from this.

pic.twitter.com/R1gsay9VPx

— Spitfire (@DogRightGirl) March 28, 2025

Will the Minority Report program reflect this? Or will it reflect reality…

I don’t need an algorithm or AI to do this. Spend a week in uniform and you’ll know exactly who commits most crime, most of the time.

— Theus Cattius (@TheusCattius) April 9, 2025

JD Vance was right, the UK now operates within a full on dystopian apparatus:

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Tyler Durden Sat, 04/12/2025 - 09:20