Individual Economists

These Are The States Where Most Americans Need Housing Assistance

Zero Hedge -

These Are The States Where Most Americans Need Housing Assistance

Housing costs keep climbing faster than wages in many parts of the U.S., putting extra pressure on low-income renters.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, maps all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico by how many low-income renters receive federal housing assistance relative to their population.

Data is sourced from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Office of Policy Development and Research (HUD).

HUD’s 2024 estimates count more than 9 million Americans (27 per 1,000) currently receiving vouchers, public-housing units, or other subsidies.

Households typically pay 30% of their adjusted income (i.e. after taxes) as rent, and the government covers the rest.

Ranked: Americans Needing Rental Assistance, by State

D.C. stands out with 72 assisted renters per 1,000 residents.

That’s more than double the U.S. average of 27 and reflects both DC’s high housing costs, its population growth since 2000, and the limited growth in housing in the same time period.

Rank State Code # of People on
Housing Assistance
(2024) State Population # of People on
Housing Assistance
per 1,000 Residents 1 District of Columbia DC 50,389 702,250 72 2 Puerto Rico PR 196,165 3,203,295 61 3 Rhode Island RI 58,640 1,112,308 53 4 New York NY 1,000,730 19,867,248 50 5 Massachusetts MA 346,968 7,136,171 49 6 Connecticut CT 148,989 3,675,069 41 7 Mississippi MS 115,391 2,943,045 39 8 Louisiana LA 178,836 4,597,740 39 9 Alabama AL 175,759 5,157,699 34 10 Ohio OH 392,408 11,883,304 33 11 Vermont VT 21,313 648,493 33 12 Kentucky KY 150,525 4,588,372 33 13 Hawaii HI 47,342 1,446,146 33 14 Illinois IL 392,302 12,710,158 31 15 New Jersey NJ 289,801 9,500,851 31 16 Maryland MD 187,764 6,263,220 30 17 West Virginia WV 52,826 1,769,979 30 18 Maine ME 41,698 1,405,012 30 19 Minnesota MN 165,434 5,793,151 29 20 Pennsylvania PA 366,433 13,078,751 28 21 Arkansas AR 82,678 3,088,354 27 22 Tennessee TN 193,490 7,227,750 27 23 North Dakota ND 19,271 796,568 24 24 New Hampshire NH 33,811 1,409,032 24 25 Michigan MI 242,304 10,140,459 24 26 Missouri MO 147,635 6,245,466 24 27 California CA 918,612 39,431,263 23 28 Georgia GA 259,256 11,180,878 23 29 Oklahoma OK 92,093 4,095,393 22 30 South Carolina SC 122,225 5,478,831 22 31 Nebraska NE 44,628 2,005,465 22 32 Virginia VA 194,664 8,811,195 22 33 Oregon OR 93,896 4,272,371 22 34 Delaware DE 22,865 1,051,917 22 35 South Dakota SD 19,928 924,669 22 36 Washington WA 170,021 7,958,180 21 37 North Carolina NC 223,353 11,046,024 20 38 Indiana IN 137,552 6,924,275 20 39 Wisconsin WI 118,308 5,960,975 20 40 New Mexico NM 40,853 2,130,256 19 41 Alaska AK 14,146 740,133 19 42 Texas TX 595,361 31,290,831 19 43 Colorado CO 113,116 5,957,493 19 44 Iowa IA 60,330 3,241,488 19 45 Montana MT 20,172 1,137,233 18 46 Florida FL 405,398 23,372,215 17 47 Kansas KS 49,535 2,970,606 17 48 Nevada NV 50,441 3,267,467 15 49 Wyoming WY 8,663 587,618 15 50 Arizona AZ 85,458 7,582,384 11 51 Idaho ID 20,902 2,001,619 10 52 Utah UT 32,862 3,503,613 9 N/A U.S. USA 9,039,779 340,110,988 27

Puerto Rico places second at 61 per 1,000—a legacy of limited job opportunities and post-hurricane rebuilding needs—while Rhode Island rounds out the top three at 53.

One study found that a minimum wage worker in Rhode Island must work an 85-hour workweek to afford a standard two-bedroom apartment.

ℹ️ Related: Puerto Rico also has the highest share of residents on welfare. Rhode Island is 10th and DC is 12th.

States With the Fewest Americans on Housing Assistance

Roughly half of U.S. states cluster between 20 and 30 assisted renters per 1,000 residents.

This middle group includes Midwestern states like Minnesota (29) and Michigan (24) as well as fast-growing Sun Belt hubs such as Georgia (23).

At the lower end, Western states Idaho (10) and Utah (9) report the fewest recipients per 1,000 residents. Part of that gap reflects younger demographics and higher home-ownership rates.

ℹ️ Related: Idaho ranks 16th and Utah 18th by home ownership rates, both higher than 70%.

But the eligibility to qualify for federal rental assistance varies by county and household size. Low numbers can also signal unmet needs or where waitlists run long.

Americans On Housing Assistance by Pure Numbers

When we shift from per-capita rates to raw counts, America’s largest states unsurprisingly dominate.

New York alone supports one million low-income renters, roughly equal to the combined totals of the bottom 10 states.

California follows closely with 919,000 recipients, reflecting the state’s chronic affordability crunch. Texas (595,000) and Florida (405,000) also rank high—even though their per-capita rates sit near the national average.

Wondering how much money the HUD is paying out on average per renter? Check out Where Rent Subsidies Are Highest, by U.S. State on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

credittrader Sat, 11/01/2025 - 13:25

Democratic Party Base Has Been "Overtaken By Angry Women"

Zero Hedge -

Democratic Party Base Has Been "Overtaken By Angry Women"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

As we’ve previously highlighted, Democrats have lost culture.

With that comes another massive problem for them. The kind of people they attract.

Conservative pundit Mollie Hemingway provided Democrats with a simple home truth Wednesday, that once again explains why they’re doomed.

During an appearance on Fox News, Hemingway was asked to explain why extreme left Rep. AOC has been so intent on verbally attacking former swimmer turned gender ideology critic Riley Gaines.

Hemingway noted that “the base of the Democrat party really has become angry women.”

“And women who are angry tend to be very mean to other women who are smarter or prettier or more successful or braver than they are, and that’s what we’re seeing here,” she added.

“The idea that any member of Congress would claim that anyone in the country doesn’t have a real job, which was her, you know, insult most recently against Riley Gaines, it’s just laughable,” Hemingway asserted.

“Particularly laughable when we’re dealing with a government shutdown caused by AOC and her buddies deciding that they don’t want to do any work right now,” the pundit further stressed.

“But it’s a situation where the entire party has kind of been overtaken by angry women, and that is going to cause a little bit of a political challenge for them,” she outlined.

The Democrats are the Party of Karens.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 12:50

​​​​​​​America's Power Bill Crisis Rages In Democrat-Run States

Zero Hedge -

​​​​​​​America's Power Bill Crisis Rages In Democrat-Run States

The epicenter of America's power bill inflation crisis stretches across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where far-left state and city leaders have swallowed the globalist "climate crisis" pill, which even Bill Gates admitted last week that the climate crisis narrative was fake news.

The result of these leftist extremist "green" policies has been the systematic degradation of regional power grids in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states, as reliable fossil-fuel generation was prematurely retired in favor of unreliable, intermittent solar and wind. These nation-destroying green policies have gutted spare grid capacity (read here) just as demand surges from data centers, onshoring, and the broader electrification push (read here), culminating in today's power bill crisis. 

A recent Goldman Sachs report by analyst Carly Davenport found that "higher power bill inflation has been the most pronounced in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and California in the past three years."

It's no secret that the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and California are governed primarily by Democratic leaders who have pushed at least a decade of climate crisis hoax narratives to justify massive "green" funding, some of which was funneled into NGOs, and to advance the progressive utopia narrative that solar and wind power would deliver clean skies and save, most importantly, planet Earth from immient climate catastrophe. Yet this fantasy was far from reality. There was never going to be a green utopia, only what millions of Americans across these states are now realizing: unaccountable Democrats have left them with a power bill crisis.

Davenport told clients:

Residential utility bill inflation has accelerated in certain regions, raising concerns about customer affordability. A few states in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic such as MD, CT, DE and DC, as well as California, have seen accumulated bill inflation of 29% in the past three years (20pp above CPI), while other states such as MI, ND, AR, SD and LA had bill growth of only 5% in the same period (Exhibit 2). Interestingly, the states with higher bill inflation during this period have deregulated or competitive power markets, and those with lower inflation are in traditional regulated markets. We provide more details on power market fundamentals and utility bills within.

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States Hit Hardest by Power Bill Crisis 

The topic of power bills is beginning to dominate local political discussions across these states. In the New Jersey governor's race, power bill ads seen by Republicans were criticizing the Democratic Party's failed green energy policies. And the Maryland Freedom Caucus of lawmakers joined forces with other conservatives in surrounding states to combat and break the far-left's stranglehold on the region.

"Politicians and special interest groups have traded energy independence for a delusional climate cultist ideology, and every Maryland family is paying the price with skyrocketing bills and a rapidly dwindling energy supply," Maryland Delegate Brian Chisholm told local TV station Fox Baltimore.

Chisholm continued, "We stand firmly united with our colleagues in neighboring states to deliver real, adult solutions and finally put an end to the childish nonsense impacting our state."

We've told readers. 

Related:

What's entirely clear is that the power bill crisis began with green policies that have now backfired in an epic way, and it will continue to drive power bills higher. Ahead of the Midterms, Republicans are likely to seize on this topic as they seek to break the Democratic Party's stranglehold over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions, which have been transformed into unaffordable living, elevated violent crime, and illegal alien safe havens.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 11:05

Are Democrats Trying To Start A Civil War?

Zero Hedge -

Are Democrats Trying To Start A Civil War?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

Whenever you delve into the modern history of internal national conflict you’re bound to come across post-crisis accounts from people who said “We never saw it coming…” or “The violence hit us from nowhere…” Generally speaking, these were the people who weren’t paying attention and they just happened to survive by sheer luck.

I think of this dynamic a lot these days. I see a large contingent of American society (perhaps 25% of the population) which has been radicalized or brainwashed beyond all reason or repair. These people (leftists) operate deep within a protective bubble of propaganda and zealotry; they function within a hive mind that does not deviate from the demands of their gatekeepers. They cannot be reasoned with, nor can they be satiated. They lust for power and the suffering of anyone who opposes them.

One can see an immediate difference between the sides. Conservatives are so independent we in-fight constantly. We might agree on basic values (even in this we sometimes argue), but in terms of policy and action we rarely shake hands.

For the political left, any disagreement with the majority leads to immediate ostracism. The hive mind does not tolerate individual rebellion. Only the gatekeepers can change the mindset or the mission of the mob.

It is strange then that this dichotomy has resulted in conservatives, with their values of liberty and independence, seeking order. Meanwhile leftists, in their Orwellian uniformity of thought, seek chaos and the deconstruction of civilization. You would think the relationship would be reversed, but this is the way it has always been.

Looking back on the events of the Bolshevik Revolution and the long list of Marxist disruptions in Europe following WWI, it should not have been at all surprising to Europeans that domestic conflict would erupt. It should not have been surprising that people would follow their natural inclination to rally around their founding heritage rather than submit to the cultural and moral relativism of the radical left.

Fascism was popular exactly because it offered shelter from the chaos and degeneracy of communism. The war and brutality that followed was seen as a balancing of the scales. Europeans wanted to ensure that the communists would never get a chance to wreak havoc again.

To be clear, both systems of governance are authoritarian and can lead to monstrous outcomes, but communism’s love for economic sabotage, mob actions and political violence are almost always a precursor to a fascist crackdown. The public does not embrace fascism in a vacuum, they must be compelled by an existential threat.

The question is, can communist subversion be defeated without using “authoritarian” measures? Is a constitutional republic equipped to deal with this kind of threat? When someone wages war on your society internally, is there a way to fight them while remaining civic minded? Probably not.

What we are witnessing in the US and Europe today is, in every way, a Marxist/Communist insurgency. It’s difficult to determine what stage we are at in this war. We have moved well beyond the stage of propaganda and mob influence into the realm of political violence, with multiple assassination attempts and terror attacks against civilian targets.

The gatekeepers for the woke communist movement are obviously Democrat politicians and media influencers. They have been consistently and actively encouraging mass hysteria and violence. They have used media spin to protect activist groups like Antifa, pretending that such organizations don’t exist. Whenever activists cause harm or death, the media and political leaders immediately move to defend that action as if it was justified.

When asked why Democrats are continuing down the path of militancy, their response is that Donald Trump is a “dictator and a fascist.” Yet, these same people can’t seem to come up with a single legitimate example of HOW Trump is acting like a dictator.

Deportations of illegal immigrants? Most countries on Earth have basic immigration laws and enforce them much more harshly than the Trump Administration does. Cuts to federal programs and employees? The President is perfectly within his power of office to reduce waste in the federal government. How about using the National Guard in US cities? Democrat leaders in those cities have aided violent activists, helping to disrupt ICE operations while threatening the lives of agents. If they don’t want the National Guard in their cities they should stop waging war on immigration officials.

From Trump’s remodeling of the White House ballroom to the US troops countering drug smugglers, everything Trump does is blown out of proportion by Democrats into an “end of democracy” scenario. Their useful-idiot followers then take these claims as permission to create even more turmoil.

The government shutdown in particular is becoming a nexus point for this agenda. The Senate needs only five Democrat votes to reopen the government with a clean funding bill, but Democrats refuse to see reason. Meanwhile, they are blaming Republicans for the consequences of the shutdown, specifically seeking public pain as leverage over conservatives.

Trump is already being held accountable for a prolonged shutdown of EBT. The Democrats know their audience well. They know that the free-stuff army is entitled, vicious and easy to manipulate.

I warned about this outcome at the beginning of the month; Democrats are fighting hard for the shutdown to continue because it creates greater fear in their constituency. However, if Republicans fold then Democrats will use the same threat of civil unrest over and over again. The government will be under their control even though they lost the elections.

Democrat rhetoric has been even worse than usual.  DNC Chair Ken Martin recently argued on MSNBC that:

“The Democratic Party’s job right now is to win elections. That’s our focus. But we may be nearing the moment where we are truly in a dictatorship and an authoritarian regime here has completely shredded the Constitution. Then elections don’t matter, and then the resistance looks completely different. And we may be nearing that moment.”

Senator Chuck Schumer also made provocative statements calling for “resistance” against Trump:

“This is tyranny. This is what happens in dictatorships… I don’t care if you’re Democrat, Republican, liberal, conservative, moderate – people should be forcefully rising up against this…”

In an odd and obviously inciting discussion on MSNBC, Joy Reid and Jasmine Crockett sent out multiple signals to leftists, barely disguising their intent:

Joy Reid: “We’re in a moment where the MAGA crowd is armed to the teeth, and they’re not shy about it. So, everybody needs to pick up a weapon – whether it’s a vote, a protest sign, or whatever it takes – because this isn’t just politics anymore; it’s survival.”

Jasmine Crockett: “Absolutely, Joy. This is a war, this isn’t a battle. We’re talking about the soul of this country, about whether democracy survives or gets crushed under fascism. And yeah, we need to arm ourselves with everything we’ve got—truth, turnout, and tenacity. The other side declared war on us long ago.”

Numerous Democrats across social media are announcing, in no uncertain terms, that they want conservatives dead and Trump allies humiliated or eliminated. When they return to a government majority and get power back, they say conservatives are going to pay a terrible price for daring to oppose them.

But if we’re living under a fascist regime as they assert, then how could they possibly expect to return to government power? If elections are still an option, then leftists must not be too serious about their claims of fascism.

A perfect example is the New York mayor’s race, which is is going much like I predicted months ago.  Zohran Mamdani (a champagne socialist/communist with wealthy parents) is holding a steep lead in polling over all other candidates. As I noted when the race began, Mamdani is the natural end game of the political left – A combination of all the groups that hate western civilization, concentrated into a single man.

Democrats are doubling down.  Mamdani proudly mentioned this in a recent campaign speech, arguing that the correct path of Democrats is to blindly charge forward. In other words, they should not self reflect on their long list of failures, but dive headfirst into radical chaos.

Prominent Democrats like AOC and Bernie Sanders are openly endorsing Mamdani. Like it or not, this is the course that their party is taking, which means violent conflict is inevitable.  If Dems are being honest in their rhetoric to “get revenge” on conservatives once they return to power (there’s no reason to think they are joking), then the rules of survival dictate that leftists can never be allowed to return to power.

If Democrat leaders continue on the path of disrupting deportations of illegals and threatening immigration officials, then Americans will increasingly support National Guard intervention. The public may even support the arrest of those same politicians.

If leftists incite mass violence over the loss of SNAP benefits, the gatekeepers will have to be arrested or removed from the country. One can question the constitutionality of the reaction, but the path that led us to this is undeniable. Leftists are provoking these responses; they are making peaceful resolution impossible.

They have gone so far over the top in their behavior, I have to ask: Are they doing this on purpose to trigger a civil war, or an authoritarian response? Do they really believe they will be able to use national instability as a weapon to get what they want?

My long running theory ever since Trump ran for office in 2016 is that he represents a perfect scapegoat for a leftist/globalist induced collapse of the US. In fact, for many years I have posited that if real conservatives and patriots (not Neo-Cons) ever gained legitimate government power, the elites would simply crash the system around our ears and make it look like it was our fault.

This plan seems to be unfolding right now. Progressive gatekeepers are using far-left activists as cannon fodder to induce a crisis, or a domestic war.

Think about the Bolshevik Revolution: The gatekeepers spurred a revolution of the poor and the working class, yet Lenin and Trotsky both came from upper-middle class wealth (like Mamdani). Hell, Karl Marx came from an upper middle-class family and married into his wife’s riches. When his debts and refusal to work a steady job caught up with him, he lived off the money of rich benefactors.

The gatekeepers of the left rarely share the struggles of the downtrodden workers they purport to represent, they only use the working class and the poor as tools to gain power and destroy their ideological enemies.

This is what Democrat leaders are doing with the mentally ill rabble they have accumulated. They are aiming the naive and unhinged horde at the guts of the country and they are hoping to create enough mayhem that Trump, conservatives, nationalists, all of us get blamed for the uncompromising response that follows.

Maybe they are hoping that in the process, conservatives will haphazardly jump on the bandwagon of totalitarianism; that we will look like the villains. I think the progressives are underestimating the average American’s resolve to see order restored. Playing the victim may not help them garner much public empathy this time.

It’s hard to say what the end result will be, but I’m finding it difficult to see an outcome that doesn’t include considerable conflict and, unfortunately, bloodshed. And, to be frank, most of it is likely to befall the leftist side. For the sake of their own self preservation, I hope they realize they’re only being used to further an agenda, and their gatekeepers don’t actually care what happens to them in the end.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 10:30

Starbucks Can't Get Customers to Stay, Despite Costly Cafe Makeovers

Zero Hedge -

Starbucks Can't Get Customers to Stay, Despite Costly Cafe Makeovers

Starbucks is struggling to keep customers in its cafes, even after spending heavily to make stores more inviting. New data from Placer.ai shows the share of visits lasting more than 10 minutes has dropped from over 40% in 2023 to roughly one-third today, according to Bloomberg.

CEO Brian Niccol made longer in-store visits a core piece of his turnaround plan when he took over in September 2024, promising better service, faster drinks and a return to the “warm, cozy, comfortable environment” Starbucks once championed.

Yet foot traffic has fallen for four straight quarters, while profits have slid by double digits over the last four and same-store sales have declined for six. Shares are down 6.4% this year.

“They’ve trained their customer to use this brand as a convenience channel, not as a place where you sit down and linger,” said Citi analyst Jon Tower. Still, he noted that if shops look and feel better, customers may at least come in more often: “They just want more people to come in and walk in and say, ‘wow, this feels like a great place.’”

Bloomberg writes that Starbucks has been adding seating, more electrical outlets and ceramic mugs, effectively reversing years of redesigns that prioritized speed over comfort.

The company says remodeled locations are seeing visitors stay longer and return more frequently. “Early results from uplifted coffeehouses in New York City and Southern California are already showing promise,” a spokesperson said. “Customers are staying longer, visiting more often, and sharing positive feedback.”

Renovations have also gotten cheaper, with some now costing about $150,000 instead of up to $1 million. Starbucks plans to refresh 1,000 North American stores in fiscal 2026. The chain has also sped up service — 80% of drinks are now served in under four minutes — and simplified the menu by 25%, cutting back on seasonal excesses. “We streamlined our menu to clear the way for innovation and focus on what customers love most,” the company said.

But the company is also closing older and to-go-focused locations as part of a $1 billion restructuring meant to align operations with Niccol’s more café-centric vision.

Some customers say the shops still aren’t conducive to lingering. At a Manhattan location, Dennis O’Leary noticed design updates but complained the music was too “tinny” and loud to make him stick around. Most seats were filled with customers waiting for orders rather than relaxing or working.

Analysts expect Starbucks to report flat same-store sales in North America when it announces earnings Wednesday — signaling the company’s push to make Starbucks a place to stay, not just stop, still has a long way to go.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 09:55

The EU's Two-Tier Encryption Vision Is Digital Feudalism

Zero Hedge -

The EU's Two-Tier Encryption Vision Is Digital Feudalism

Authored by Bill Laboon via CoinTelegraph.com,

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, recently showed a moment of humanity in a tech world that often promises too much, too fast. He urged users not to share anything with ChatGPT that they wouldn’t want a human to see. The Department of Homeland Security in the United States has already started to take notice. 

His caution strikes at a more profound truth that underpins our entire digital world. In a realm where we can no longer be certain whether we’re dealing with a personit is clear that software is often the agent communicating, not people. This growing uncertainty is more than just a technical challenge. It strikes at the very foundation of trust that holds society together. 

This should cause us to reflect not just on AI, but on something even more fundamental, far older, quieter and more critical in the digital realm: encryption.

In a world increasingly shaped by algorithms and autonomous systems, trust is more important than ever. 

Encryption is our foundation

Encryption isn’t just a technical layer; it is the foundation of our digital lives. It protects everything from private conversations to global financial systems, authenticates identity and enables trust to scale across borders and institutions.

Crucially, it’s not something that can be recreated through regulation or substituted with policy. When trust breaks down, when institutions fail or power is misused, encryption is what remains. It’s the safety net that ensures our most private information stays protected, even in the absence of trust.

A cryptographic system isn’t like a house with doors and windows. It is a mathematical contract; precise, strict and meant to be unbreakable. Here, a “backdoor” is not just a secret entry but a flaw embedded in the logic of the contract, and one flaw is all it takes to destroy the entire agreement. Any weakness introduced for one purpose could become an opening for everyone, from cybercriminals to authoritarian regimes. Built entirely on trust through strong, unbreakable code, the entire structure begins to collapse once that trust is broken. And right now, that trust is under threat. 

A blueprint for digital feudalism

The European Commission’s ProtectEU initiative proposes a mechanism that compels service providers to scan private communications directly on users’ devices before encryption is applied. This effectively turns personal devices into surveillance tools and breaks the integrity of end-to-end encryption. While state actors would never permit such a vulnerability in their own secure systems, this mandate creates a separate, weaker standard of security for the public.

On the surface, it sounds like a reasonable compromise: stronger encryption for governments, with so-called “lawful access” to citizens’ data. However, what it proposes is a hardcoded imbalance, one in which the state encrypts, and the public is decrypted.


This isn’t a security policy. It’s a blueprint for digital feudalism — a future where privacy becomes a privilege reserved for the powerful, not a right guaranteed to everyone. Two-tier encryption shifts the balance of trust from democratic accountability and cements a structure of control no free society should accept. Make no mistake: This debate isn’t about safety. It’s about control. 

We shouldn’t live in a world where only the powerful get to be private.

In an age of ubiquitous AI, state-sponsored hacking and mass digital surveillance, weakening encryption isn’t just shortsighted but a systemic recklessness. For those of us in the decentralized world, this is not an abstract debate; it is a matter of practical concern. Strong, unbreakable encryption is far more than a technical feature; it’s the foundation upon which everything else rests.

Truth by verification

This is why the mission of Web3 must stay rooted in its core promise: truth. Not truth by authority, but truth by verification. This principle of a self-enforcing contract is why true decentralized systems are built with no key master or institution that holds the keys. Introducing a backdoor is a contradiction; it re-establishes a central point of failure, violating the very premise of a trustless system. Security is a binary state: it is either present for everyone, or it is guaranteed for no one.

Fortunately, these principles are not just theoretical. The cryptographic primitives emerging from this space — zero-knowledge proofs that can confirm facts without exposing data, and proof-of-personhood systems that resist Sybil attacks without compromising privacy — offer a real, working alternative, showing that we don’t have to choose between security and freedom.

The irony is stark: The same field now under threat holds the tools we need to build a more secure, more open digital future. One based not on surveillance or gatekeeping, but on permissionless innovation, cryptographic trust and individual dignity.

If we want a digital world that is safe, inclusive and resilient, then encryption must remain strong and universally standardized for everyone.

Not because we have something to hide, but because we all have something to protect.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 09:20

Kenyan Navy Intercepts Flagless Vessel Carrying $63 Million in Meth

Zero Hedge -

Kenyan Navy Intercepts Flagless Vessel Carrying $63 Million in Meth

Kenyan authorities have seized more than a metric ton of methamphetamine in a major maritime drug bust coordinated with INTERPOL and international partners.

On 21 October 2025, the Kenyan Navy intercepted a flagless dhow roughly 340 nautical miles east of Mombasa after intelligence sharing between the Regional Narcotics Interagency Fusion Cell in Bahrain and the Regional Coordination Operations Centre in Seychelles, according to a release from Interpol.

The vessel was escorted to Mombasa three days later, where a multi-agency command center was established under the Deputy Commander of the Kenyan Navy. INTERPOL said it played a key advisory and oversight role, helping manage the search to ensure the evidence would stand up in court and coordinating support from the U.S. Naval Criminal Investigative Service, which deployed personnel to assist.

Interpol writes that authorities discovered 769 packets containing 1,024 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine with a purity level of 98%. Kenyan experts value the seizure at more than KES 8 billion (USD 63 million).

Six crew members were arrested and now face drug-trafficking charges. Kenya’s Anti-Narcotics Unit is leading the ongoing investigation.

INTERPOL said the operation demonstrates how international coordination and real-time intelligence sharing are essential to counter the growing threat of maritime drug trafficking in the Indian Ocean.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 08:45

Schedule for Week of November 2, 2025

Calculated Risk -

The key (missing) report this week is the October employment report.

Other key indicators include October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, November 3rd -----
0:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 15.5million SAAR, down from 16.4 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Tuesday, November 4th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

----- Wednesday, November 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Thursday, November 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

----- Friday, November 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

Moscow's "Root Causes" Memo Reportedly Angered White House, Which Then Nixed Budapest Summit

Zero Hedge -

Moscow's "Root Causes" Memo Reportedly Angered White House, Which Then Nixed Budapest Summit

The Financial Times is out with more reporting Friday on why the United States canceled a planned summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest earlier this month. The FT report says Moscow issued sweeping demands on Ukraine, according to sources privy to the conversations, and that ultimately this 'annoyed' President Trump, who opted to listen to those admin officials calling for a firmer position in support of Ukraine.

Also, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Trump that Moscow was "showing no willingness to negotiate" after he held a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Russia has reportedly made clear that a precondition for lasting peace rests on significant territorial concessions in the east.

Getty Images

Trump "was not impressed with their position," FT quoted one source as saying, who also explained the president remains open to meeting Russian leaders only "when and where he thinks there can be progress."

However, the 'demands' from the Russian side shouldn't have come as any surprise, given also Russian forces have the initiative on the ground in the east. A "root causes" of the conflict memo laying out Moscow's position demanded Ukraine give up large parts of its territory, cut its troops and forever abandon plans to join NATO.

President Putin has meanwhile emphasized that the planned Russian-American summit in Budapest was postponed and not canceled.

Russia seems to want to keep dialogue with Washington as positive as possible, and wants to present 'progress' in bilateral relations, while downplaying ongoing disagreements.

The reality remains that President Trump is trying to negotiate in favor of the Zelensky government, while Zelensky's own forces have little to no leverage over the military situation. Russia knows it is in the driver's seat on the ground, despite Ukraine's unrelenting cross-border drone attacks on oil refineries. And yet the mainstream media still floats simplistic narratives and mythologies like the following:

Russian foreign ministry allegedly sent a memo to Washington outlining how Putin was still calling for the supposed “root causes” of his invasion to be addressed – even though the West widely believes he invaded Ukraine in a land grab.

President Putin has floated the idea of a "ceasefire for journalists" to allow them to reach the frontlines and report honestly on the situation.

Currently, the Kremlin is charging that Zelensky is seeking to hide the true state of the frontline situation in and around Pokrovsk, per state media:

Ukraine has effectively acknowledged the “catastrophic situation” faced by its troops in a Russian encirclement by banning journalists from reaching them, the Russian Defense Ministry has said.

On Thursday, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgy Tikhy warned media workers against accepting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer of safe passage to the front line in Donbass to report on thousands of Kiev’s troops surrounded by Russian forces. Traveling to the area without permission from Kiev would be “a violation of our legislation” that would have “long-term reputational and legal consequences,” Tikhy said.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a statement on Friday that Ukraine had banned local and foreign journalists from accessing the “cauldrons” in order to “conceal the real state of affairs on the front line and deceive the international community and the Ukrainian people.”

Looming large over all of this is more nuclear rhetoric and saber-rattling...

Moscow wants to especially signal to Washington that Ukrainian ground defenses are facing rapid collapse in key strategic locations; however, this is something the Zelensky government has been firmly rejecting. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 07:35

Will The AfD Party Be Banned In Germany?

Zero Hedge -

Will The AfD Party Be Banned In Germany?

Via Remix News,

There are once again efforts to ban the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the Bundestag, with the far-left Social Democrats (SPD) leading the way. However, there is some difficult math facing the proponents of an AfD ban, which makes it unlikely — but not impossible — for the party to be banned.

In order to understand why a ban is unlikely, let us first look at what would actually happen if a ban of the AfD went forward.

 

The AfD is currently the most popular party in the country, according to multiple polls, scoring between 25 and 27 percent of the vote. This alone makes a ban unthinkable to many, but the German establishment does not especially care what the electorate thinks on a number of key issues, so why not just ban the party?

For starters, and most importantly, a ban of the AfD would radically reshape the German electorate in favor of the left. This would translate into the Christian Democrats (CDU) losing a massive amount of power, and potentially being relegated to the political dustbin. Due to this cold, hard reality, a ban could be suicidal for the CDU.

How one local elections tells us about the federal election

What happened in the local mayoral election in Ludwigshafen tells us what the likely outcome of an AfD ban would be for the country at the federal level. In Ludwigshafen, the AfD’s Joachim Paul was leading the polls to become mayor before he was banned from running through backroom bureaucratic channels, a move later confirmed by judges during a number of appeals. The judges all argued Paul would have to challenge the ban after the election. Paul is still filing legal actions against the decision, but the outcome of the appeal could take months or even years.

Regardless of the outcome of Paul’s appeal, the election had some interesting outcomes.

First, the voter participation rate crashed to a record low of just 29.3 percent. In 2017’s mayoral election in Ludwigshafen, the then-SPD candidate Jutta Steinruck won with 60.2 percent participation. That means voter turnout was cut in half from that election.

That is not all. For those who did vote, many of them appear to have submitted “spoiled” ballots. A record-high number of ballots were ruled invalid, at 9.2 percent. Eight years ago, that number was just 2.6 percent. The number of “spoiled ballots” jumped by nearly 400 percent.

If this same outcome occurred at the federal level, including a dramatic crash in the voter participation rate as AfD supporters boycott the election, it would be a disaster for the CDU’s electoral chances.

The way the German system works means that the pool of right-wing voters would shrink dramatically, leaving CDU voters and the left as the only remaining voting pool. However, this remaining, much smaller pool, would then feature a dramatically larger share of left-wing voters consisting of the SPD, the Greens, and the Left Party.

These three parties would be looking at a potential supermajority.

Even with a CDU scoring 30 to 35 percent of the vote, the party could be easily sidelined by this new far-left coalition.

This is what the CDU fears.

To understand this, it is important to understand that the German left does not need to increase the number of votes it receives; it just needs to increase its share of the vote. Let us consider an imaginary scenario where only 35 percent of the population votes in the next German federal election. It would be a disaster for democracy, but it could still be a huge win for the left. If the right drops out of the voting process. Suddenly, the remaining voting pie looks more left-wing, and the left can win a bigger share of this smaller voting pie.

Voilà, the left now have a super majority with just a small fraction of voters coming out to vote.

The trouble for the left is that it still needs the CDU to vote for an AfD ban in the Bundestag, otherwise they would not have the majority needed to pass such a motion. However, the CDU has no incentive to do this.

Death of democracy, rise of the left

On top of this electoral math problem for the CDU, it would not only make the electoral map vastly more favorable to the left, but it could also tear a giant hole in the CDU party itself.

A plurality of voters are against a ban on the AfD. A new Insa poll shows that 43 percent of respondents are against a ban, while 35 percent are in favor. Another 10 percent were indifferent, and 12 percent refused to comment.

However, for CDU voters, the issue was evenly split, with 42 percent supporting a ban, while 41 percent were against it.

Many CDU voters have already switched their voting intentions towards the AfD. A ban could further fuel an exodus towards the AfD party while the ban works its way through the system, all the way to the Constitutional Court, which is the final arbiter of the ban process. That could take well over a year, plenty of time to enact massive damage on the CDU.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz already said that a ban of the AfD “smacks to much of the elimination of political rivals.” CDU voters all heard this statement. For him and his party to backtrack now on this issue would not sit well with many voters, many who are already dissatisfied with the economy and migration.

The Insa poll also shows that while a majority of supporters of left-wing parties back a ban, they are by no means in full agreement. Many Germans, even those on the left, believe a ban on the AfD would be a stake in the heart of democracy.

If a ban goes through, and a national vote is held featuring an abysmal voter participation rate due to mass boycotts, it would likely send the German system into chaos, leaving a massive democratic hole in the country’s landscape. It could even shake the entire foundation of the German state, calling into question the legitimacy of any government that is elected into power with an extremely low voter share and a ban on the most popular party.

What is the most likely scenario?

The left is likely to continue with its full-court press to proceed with a ban on the AfD. It would only benefit them, after all. The CDU is also likely to continue to talk of a ban, demonize the AfD, and try to snipe at the party using all the tools of the state, but is unlikely to actually back a ban. Doing so would be very foolish from a purely strategic point of view.

Of course, that is not a foregone conclusion. There are potential political realities, power struggles, and wild cards that could lead Merz and much of the CDU leadership to reverse course. However, the current risks of such a move outnumber the potential benefits by a clear margin.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 07:00

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

Can the Golden Age of Costco Last? With its standout deals and generous employment practices, the warehouse chain became a feel-good American institution. In a fraught time, it can be hard to remain beloved. (New Yorker)

The Hamptons Luxury Housing Market Is Staging a Comeback for the Ages: The East End’s unprecedented revival is being fueled by a wave of home sales priced above $10 million. (WSJ) see also New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich: Don’t bet on a millionaire exodus if Mamdani wins the mayorship. (Bloomberg no paywall}

• Long-Term Asset Return Study – The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing: This study examines how asset classes have performed across a wide range of macroeconomic, policy, and valuation environments. Drawing on data that in some cases stretches back to the 18th century, we analyse both nominal and real returns to understand how different assets have behaved under varying conditions. We explore correlations with key drivers such as real and nominal GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, bond yields, debt and deficit levels, and more — with the goal of helping investors tilt the odds in their favour. (Deutsche Bank)

The Beatles as Comedians: They might have been the Marx Brothers of the Age of Aquarius. (The Honest Broker)

The Real Stakes, and Real Story, of Peter Thiel’s Antichrist Obsession: Thirty years ago, a peace-loving Austrian theologian spoke to Peter Thiel about the apocalyptic theories of Nazi jurist Carl Schmitt. They’ve been a road map for the billionaire ever since. (Wired)

The myth of the carnivore caveman: You are not going to like where our ancestors got their protein. (Vox)

What 350 different theories of consciousness reveal about reality: There are hundreds of coherent theories attempting to explain the origins of experience. Robert Lawrence Kuhn explores what they reveal about free will, artificial intelligence and life after death. (New Scientist) see also Lights On: Consciousness, the Mystery of Felt Experience, and the Fundamental Music of Reality: Remove an atom from the piano and it remains a piano; keep going long enough, atom by atom, and it will eventually cease being a piano — but no particular atom marks the boundary of its unbecoming. (The Marginalian)

Mortality is the mother of art: Living creatively in an impermanent world. There are two basic facts of human existence: We are born. We die. But what we do in between—that part is up to us. The question becomes: How should we spend our finite time here on this Earth? Once our basic survival needs have been met, what pursuits are worth devoting ourselves to? (Hello, Mortal)

The Island Where People Go to Cheat Death: In a pop-up city off the coast of Honduras, longevity startups are trying to fast-track anti-aging drugs. Is this the future of medical research? (New Republic)

How Billie Eilish Rewrote the Business of Pop Music: At just 23, she has racked up nine Grammys and two Oscars. Now the hitmaker is making the industry more sustainable—for the world and herself. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Jon Hilsenrath of Serpa Pinto Advisory. Previously, he was chief economics correspondent for Wall Street Journal for 26 years. Dubbed the “Fed Whisperer” by Wall Street traders for his scoops on the FOMC, he worked out of Hong Kong, NY, and D.C. He was part of the Pulitzer Prize-winning team for on-scene coverage of 9/11.  He is the author of “Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval.”

 

The World’s Largest Economies in 2026

Source: Visual Capitalist

 

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