Individual Economists

Mamdani Faces Bipartisan Backlash Over Criticism Of Israel On Oct. 7

Zero Hedge -

Mamdani Faces Bipartisan Backlash Over Criticism Of Israel On Oct. 7

Authored by Nicholas Zifcak via The Epoch Times,

Mayor Zohran Mamdani is getting backlash from members of both major parties for marking Oct. 7 with a statement criticizing Israel's military response to the terrorist attacks against it that took place on Oct. 7, 2023.

On the third anniversary of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, in one day, Mamdani said on social media that he grieved the loss, but that the suffering "did not begin nor end that day."

"It instead continued through the Israeli government's devastating, ongoing genocide in Gaza," he said.

People across the political spectrum suggested the timing of his remarks was inappropriate.

"There are 364 other days you can wrongly criticize Israel for defending herself. If you had respect for the dead, you'd just acknowledge the tragedy, but you don't," Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) posted on social media.

Rep. Daniel Goldman (D-N.Y.) in a post called the mayor's statement "reprehensible," criticizing him for engaging in "extreme activism instead of balanced leadership." In June, Goldman lost his reelection bid in the primary to Mamdani ally Brad Lander, who was even harsher in his criticism of Israel's military operations in Gaza after the terrorist attack.

The controversy came after Mamdani joined a vigil organized by Israelis for Peace in Union Square, where he was heckled by pro-Palestinian activists shouting "Traitor, traitor, come on out, you sold all your people out!"

After the vigil, the mayor met with Palestinian New Yorkers.

Bronx Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) posted on X pushing back on Israel's critics, asking them to "take a vacation from their hysterical hatred of the world's only Jewish State and find it within themselves to express condolences for the thousands of Israelis murdered, maimed, mutilated, raped, and abducted at the hands of Hamas."

Some Republicans were stronger in their response to the mayor's remark: "Comrade Mamdani effectively declares a day of mourning for the Hamas terrorists who lost their lives raping & murdering innocent civilians," posted Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

"Disgusting and shameful to use October 7th as an excuse to repeat Hamas' talking points," posted Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Speaking with press Thursday at an unrelated event, Mamdani was asked about the criticism, how he felt being called a traitor, and if he wanted to add or subtract from his statements.

"I was proud to attend last night's vigil," said Mamdani, "As for those protesting me, I am the mayor of New York City, and this is what I signed up for."

Mamdani explained that he felt his statement and attendance at the vigil were appropriate, "reckoning with horror, and the horror that devastated the lives of New Yorkers three years ago, and it also continues to devastate New Yorkers today," said the mayor.

"It is critically important to be able to mourn for all of those who were killed and have been killed since, especially given that we know this is ongoing," said Mamdani.

Mamdani has looked for opportunities to use his authority as mayor to come to the aid of Palestinians in Gaza.

In July, Mamdani announced his office was considering "every avenue available under applicable law" to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he came for the U.N. General Assembly, only later to confirm that only the federal government could make that arrest.

During a Sept. 29 episode of "Ask Mayor Mamdani" on WNYC's "Brian Lehrer Show," a caller from Brooklyn named Noora asked Mamdani what he was doing to do stop explosive materials from being shipped out via John F. Kennedy Airport to Israel. The mayor responded that he would look into the matter, but that it likely fell outside city authority.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 13:15

"Wouldn't Call That A Surprise": Delta Slashes Profit Outlook As Jet Fuel Prices Near Record Highs

Zero Hedge -

"Wouldn't Call That A Surprise": Delta Slashes Profit Outlook As Jet Fuel Prices Near Record Highs

Delta Air Lines shares fell as much as 3.5% early in the US cash session after the carrier slashed its full-year earnings forecast as soaring jet fuel costs squeezed margins. The cut isn't totally unexpected given today's jet fuel prices, but it serves as a warning: Delta owns a refinery that helps cushion the refining crisis blow, suggesting smaller carriers without that in-house refining buffer face even greater pressure.

The Atlanta-based carrier now expects adjusted earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 a share this year, down from a July forecast of $6.50 to $7.50. The new forecast lines up with the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $5.44 this year.

Adjusted third-quarter earnings were $1.72 a share, below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $1.82. Adjusted revenue rose 16% to $17.6 billion, roughly in line with consensus estimates.

"I wouldn't call that a surprise to anyone, it's all because of higher fuel prices," CEO Ed Bastian said of the new forecast. "If this continues to go higher for longer, which I think it will, as the premium airline in the industry we have the best ability to be able to price for that."

We pointed out earlier this year that Delta operates an in-house refinery called Trainer Refinery. Monroe Energy (a Delta Air Lines subsidiary) officially operates the 185,000 to 190,000 barrels per day refinery. It's situated along the Delaware River in Delaware County, Pennsylvania.

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu told Bloomberg Television earlier that "the refinery has about a $1 billion benefit to this year, so it is providing a bit of a boost for them."

"But higher fuel will eventually eat into consumer demand," Kahyaoglu added, "and remain a major headwind for all carriers."

Delta is the only US airline that operates a major refinery, suggesting other carriers face a difficult operating environment amid sky-high jet fuel prices.

The earnings cut sets a difficult backdrop for United Airlines, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines, which report later this month.

Delta Air Lines shares fell as much as 3.5% in the early US cash session.

The broader airline index fell about 1.5%.

US air travel remains resilient ...

... in the face of high jet fuel prices crimping carrier margins. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 12:45

US Hits 'Rogue' International Criminal Court With Sweeping Sanctions

Zero Hedge -

US Hits 'Rogue' International Criminal Court With Sweeping Sanctions

On Friday the Trump administration rolled out sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court, calling it a "rogue" organization and declaring that the action is part of an effort to ultimately dismantle the tribunal.

"We will ban transactions with this rogue court, cutting off their resources and crippling its ability to operate against us," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a video address on social media. "The United States and the American people are not subject to the jurisdiction of this fake ICC."

Rubio continued, saying of Republicans and Democrats, "Both parties agree on this, but only President Trump has the resolve to take the action needed to end this threat once and for all." He then warned: "Either the ICC will end its threats, or we will end the ICC."

via AFP

Importantly, the top American diplomat then turned to pressuring Americans allies, from European countries to Japan, to join the US-led sanctions and efforts to dismantle the ICC.

"We expect our allies, many of whom are part of the ICC and that rely on American service members for their defense, to rein in this rogue court," he said.

"If they do not, the United States will continue its campaign to dismantle the ICC, piece by piece, until Americans are threatened no longer," he added.

Ironically all of this stems in part from ICC action related to the US invasions and occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan, where yes - real US war crimes took place. These Bush-launched wars remain deeply unpopular among the American population - and even President Trump has long derided Bush's infamous war of choice.

The Associated Press writes on Friday:

U.S. believes has become politicized and attempted to unfairly and illegally prosecute Americans and Israelis on war crimes charges.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the sanctions on Friday, after the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to South African prosecutor Navi Pillay, who had led investigations into potential ICC charges against U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The move, however, long predated the Nobel Prize announcement.

The Trump administration imposed targeted sanctions last year on several ICC officials such as prosecutors and judges, citing the ICC’s 2024 decision to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime ​Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over what the court alleged were improper actions carried out by the Israeli government during its war in Gaza.

Earlier in 2026, three sitting ICC judges sued Trump and his administration over the sanctions, arguing that they were unlawful.

And then again in August, the US imposed additional targeted sanctions, namely against International Criminal Court President Tomoko Akane and Senior Trial Lawyer Abdoulaye Seye.

Washington has scoffed at the court and sought to erode its influence stretching back multiple administrations, all the way back to the George W Bush era itself. But all this was renewed as the ICC began targeting Israel and its leaders in the wake of the Gaza war.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 12:30

Watch: Influencer Fights "Terminator" Robot In Wild Cage Match

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Influencer Fights "Terminator" Robot In Wild Cage Match

A social media influencer stepped into the ring against a real-life "Terminator" robot in a bizarre showdown that offered a startling glimpse into the rapidly advancing world of humanoid robotics.

Frankie LaPenna, a 29-year-old influencer known for his outrageous online stunts, faced off against a six-foot-tall humanoid robot, one of three REK machines he fought, during a September 18 event in San Francisco organized by robotics startup Robot Entertainment Kombat.

Video of the wild encounter shows the towering machine, complete with a metallic skeleton and glowing red eyes reminiscent of the killer robots from the Terminator movies, entering a cage to battle its human opponent.

LaPenna initially appeared to hold his own, landing several punches against the machine - however, the robot quickly fought back and unleashed a series of powerful kicks, including one that sent the influencer flying across the cage.

The machine wasn't fighting on its own: a human handler was controlling it, according to Futurism.

Organizers billed the spectacle as the world's first human-versus-humanoid robot cage fight.

The machine was an EngineAI T800, a sophisticated humanoid robot developed by Shenzhen-based Chinese robotics startup EngineAI. The unusual showdown also landed organizers in hot water with California regulators.

The California State Athletic Commission issued a cease-and-desist order against REK, alleging the company had organized an unauthorized combat event involving a human participant.

"The California State Athletic Commission is committed to protecting the safety of the public and integrity of combat sports," said spokesperson Monica Vargas. "Unsanctioned activity puts the physical and financial well-being of all those involved at risk and such activity will not be tolerated."

It isn't the T800's first fight. EngineAI first teased the full-size humanoid last December with a clip of spinning kicks, followed by one showing it kicking the company's own CEO across a room. In July, as we reported, EngineAI staged what it billed as the world's first free-combat tournament for full-size humanoid robots in Shenzhen, drawing 32 international teams. One T800, Matador, kept throwing punches and kicks after a high kick knocked its head out of place - until it fell, crushed the head, and tore it off completely trying to get back up.

Closer to home, San Francisco venues began hosting VR-controlled bouts with smaller Unitree robots earlier this year - spectacles one researcher dismissed as "robot theater."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 12:15

RFK Jr. Announces New Clinic For People Injured By Vaccines

Zero Hedge -

RFK Jr. Announces New Clinic For People Injured By Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other officials have opened a new clinic to treat patients with vaccine injuries and announced other new developments on Oct. 8 that they say will change how the government handles reports of health problems following vaccination.

The new National Institutes of Health (NIH) clinic is located on the agency's campus in Bethesda, Maryland. It was opened on Oct. 5, officials disclosed on Thursday. Reporters were not invited to the opening.

The Make America Healthy Again Commission, led by Kennedy, recommended in 2025 starting a new vaccine injury research program at the NIH as part of an effort to investigate vaccine injuries with better data collection and analysis.

The clinic is "dedicated to developing the science of preventing vaccine injuries, making vaccines safer, and most important of all, listening to the voices of people who have suffered vaccine injury, so that we can learn from them and learn from their experience to make vaccines safer," Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, the NIH's director, said in an Oct. 8 video statement.

NIH doctors and researchers will use the clinic to evaluate patients, identify potential causes of health problems, and try to figure out the best treatments, the Department of Health and Human Services, which Kennedy leads and is the NIH's parent agency, said in a statement.

Some NIH researchers studied patients with alleged or confirmed COVID-19 vaccine injuries during the pandemic, but received pushback from NIH leadership. Patients said they were later abandoned by the researchers.

Kennedy, who attended the opening of the clinic, said in a video he posted on Thursday that parents of children who suffered injuries from vaccines, and other individuals with vaccine injuries, "have been marginalized, vilified, demonized, and gaslighted, and they have not received the medical attention they need, and we have not done the studies that need to be done to understand who's vulnerable to those kind of injuries."

That's changing with the Trump administration, he added later.

"I think it was the first time in years that the vaccine-injured have been heard by the health authorities," Brianne Dressen, who was injured by the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, treated at the NIH in 2021, and co-founded a group called React19 representing people hurt by vaccines, told The Epoch Times.

"It is definitely a step in the right direction," added Dressen, who attended the opening.

Other Developments

Health officials also announced three other related developments on Thursday.

Kennedy has said that vaccine surveillance systems the government utilizes, including the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), don't work well. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, another agency under Kennedy's purview, in August solicited bids for a contract to overhaul VAERS, and on Sept. 28 awarded a new contract.

Another move, officials said, will be requiring electronic health records moving forward to include vaccine-related health issues, "so that this information can follow patients across the health care system" and inform health care professionals who are caring for the patients.

Finally, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, another health agency division, is proposing reimbursing doctors for time they spend submitting reports to VAERS.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 09:20

DOE Presses PJM On Ratepayer Protections From Large Load Costs

Zero Hedge -

DOE Presses PJM On Ratepayer Protections From Large Load Costs

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

  • The U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday urged the PJM Interconnection to revise its reliability backstop procurement plan to prevent cost shifts onto existing utility customers from data centers and other large loads.

  • PJM should file a proposal by Oct. 29 in response to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s decision last month that the grid operator’s backstop procurement plan needed changes, including to address flaws in its cost-allocation framework, according to the DOE’s “statement of position” filed with FERC on Wednesday.

  • “PJM should implement the cost allocation and other reforms identified by the Commission to ensure that the costs of serving new data centers or other large electric energy loads are not unfairly shifted to PJM’s existing ratepayers,” DOE said in its position statement, which appears to be the first one it has filed at FERC in at least five years.

Instead of waiting for a five-month hearing process to play out, PJM intends to file a proposal at FERC to revise its backstop procurement plan by Oct. 29, Jeffrey Shields, a spokesman for the grid operator, said in an email to Utility Dive on Thursday.

Construction at an Amazon Web Services data center on Aug. 26, 2026, in Sterling, Va.

PJM plans to hold a special Members Committee meeting on Oct. 22 to consult with its members on the substance of the upcoming filing, according to Shields. Also, PJM will schedule a special Transmission Owners Agreement–Administrative Committee meeting, he said.

The PJM’s reliability backstop procurement proposal grew out of a fast-track stakeholder process and aims to address a pending capacity shortfall, largely driven by data center demand forecasts. PJM failed to acquire enough capacity in its last two base capacity auctions to meet its reserve margin targets.

The grid operator intends to acquire 6.8 GW of new capacity to make up for a shortfall from the capacity auction for the 2028/29 delivery year, according to a fact sheet on the auction process. PJM may reduce the target to account for new supply that is expected to be added to its system, which spans 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states and the District of Columbia.

However, the backstop procurement originally slated to begin Sept. 30 was put on hold at the last minute after FERC said that parts of PJM’s proposal — those dealing with cost allocation, transmission owner exit rules and load-serving entity collateral requirements — may be unjust and unreasonable.

The agency established a hearing process set to run through February to address those issues, but said PJM could propose its own fixes using guidance FERC included in its order.

In its filing, the DOE supported FERC’s decision, particularly on the agency’s concerns about how the proposal would allocate costs.

“Under the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, large electric energy loads — not American households or other business ratepayers — must fund the electric energy generation and related infrastructure that such new large load projects require,” the DOE said.

Companies committing to the pledge agreed to protect consumers from price hikes driven by large load energy demand and related infrastructure requirements, the department said. Utility companies in PJM’s footprint that signed the voluntary pledge include American Electric Power, AES, CenterPoint Energy, Dominion Energy, Exelon, FirstEnergy and PPL.

The DOE said PJM should adopt FERC’s recommended revisions to its backstop procurement plan to advance the Ratepayer Protection Pledge’s principles.

“DOE shares the Commission’s concerns that PJM’s proposed [reliability backstop procurement] cost allocation model may be unjust and unreasonable,” the department said, noting that FERC found it may not allocate costs to the consumers who caused them.

DOE agreed with FERC that PJM should allocate the backstop procurement’s costs based on updated load forecasts.

“A capability to continuously track whether a project enters into service — and therefore benefits from the capacity and system investments procured to serve it — or is delayed, reduced, or cancelled, can help assign costs for new generation to the customers responsible for those investments,” the DOE said.

Without up-to-date and project-level information, PJM cannot “reliably reconcile its base forecast with Load Adjustments, avoid omissions and double counting, revise the [reliability backstop procurement] target when forecast load fails to materialize, or attribute demand growth to the appropriate zone and load-serving entity,” the DOE said.

PJM’s tariff may omit large loads already included in the grid operator’s baseline demand forecast, leading to flawed cost allocation, according to the DOE.

PJM needs adequate data to identify the large load projects reflected in its forecasts and to monitor their development, the DOE said. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 09:10

Apple Slides After Report Says iPhone 18 Pro Component Orders Slashed, Signaling Early Demand Trouble

Zero Hedge -

Apple Slides After Report Says iPhone 18 Pro Component Orders Slashed, Signaling Early Demand Trouble

Jefferies and Bernstein analysts have already flagged soft demand for the iPhone 18 in major markets. The launch of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max is an early test for CEO John Ternus, with a new report suggesting Apple has told suppliers to cut component production.

Apple shares are down 2% in premarket trading this morning after an overnight Nikkei Asia report said demand for the new flagship iPhone has been disappointing.

Sources told the Tokyo-based news outlet that October component orders for the two premium models (18 Pro and Pro Max) have been cut by at least 15% from initial plans. Another source deep within Apple's supply chain said reductions are between 15% and 20%.

Here's more from the outlet:

"In October alone, we are seeing orders from Apple reducing by 15% to 20% for both the premium models; we don't know how things would develop from here," said one of the executive-level sources. The order cuts will affect production volumes for some, but not all, suppliers in October due to differing production lead times, and it is not immediately clear whether Apple will make further adjustments from November onward.

Another source with direct knowledge of the situation told Nikkei Asia that volume demand from late August into October has been softer than previous years, but that this could be related to Apple changing its launch schedule for iPhone models. Apple has prioritized its three premium models with launches this year, while saving for a spring release its standard model, which will be iPhone 18, along with the new generation of iPhone Air.

"We do find the demand in terms of volume from August for the second half of this year is not as strong as previous years when all the new models are introduced all together," a supply chain manager said. "This year, the standard iPhone 18, which could provide a boost to volumes, will not require components until toward the end of the year, for launch in early next year 2027."

Soft demand for Apple's premium lineup is facing resistance among consumers because the ongoing memory shortage has jacked up prices. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299, both $100 above their predecessors.

A third source within the Apple supply chain described the new handsets as "just too expensive," adding, "In light of the demand for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, we anticipate a similar fate for iPhone Duo soon after it becomes available."

The Nikkei Asia report confirms what Bernstein technology analyst Mark Newman wrote on Monday, when he warned: "Initial market feedback on iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max is mixed vs. the 17 lineup. In the US, Pro & Pro Max demand is down low single digits YoY with Pro waiting times shorter vs. Pro Max were longer. China, however, saw launch week sales up 12% YoY. Other regions were mixed."

Last month, Edison Lee, Jefferies' head of China and Hong Kong technology and software research, said, "Weak 18P/PM resale prices vs. 17P/PM remain our clearest sign of softer demand, despite a weekend rebound in lead times that could reflect tighter supply as DUO ramps."

To be fair, the base iPhone 18 hasn't launched and won't be available until spring 2027.

Ternus may quickly discover that Apple is testing the upper limits of consumers' willingness to pay, with higher prices for the iPhone 18 Pro lineup and the forthcoming roughly $2,000 iPhone Duo.

The failed Vision Pro offers a cautionary precedent: premium hardware does not guarantee mass-market demand. The risk now is that further price increases could drag on volumes rather than drive revenue growth.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 08:05

"Small Disruption Now Has Outsized Price Consequences": Jefferies Warns As Hurricane Takes Aim At US Gulf Energy

Zero Hedge -

"Small Disruption Now Has Outsized Price Consequences": Jefferies Warns As Hurricane Takes Aim At US Gulf Energy

Isaias has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane in the overnight hours and is forecast to intensify further before making landfall along the US Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.

Nearly two-thirds of Gulf of Mexico crude production is already shut in, while roughly 500,000 barrels a day of refining capacity is at risk. The disruption comes as a global refining crisis has pushed US gasoline and diesel prices into uncomfortable territory for consumers ahead of the midterm elections. While the supply impact is expected to be temporary, even brief refinery outages could tighten already constrained fuel inventories and add pressure to pump prices.

Jefferies consumer staples analyst Kaumil Gajrawala warned on Thursday morning: "A small disruption now has outsized price consequences. The second-order effect is freight cost, which favors asset-light models like KO (Buy), where bottlers carry the fleet and fuel exposure."

US WTI prices rose as much as 5.6% on Thursday as oil/gas firms evacuated offshore platforms, moved drilling rigs, and prepared for port closures that could disrupt crude deliveries to major coastal refineries. On top of the 63% of regional crude production shut in, about 57% of natural gas output has also come to a halt.

This is a sizeable temporary hit to US crude supply. For NatGas, the national production impact is much smaller.

Here's a map of offshore platforms and rigs, as well as major refineries in Isaias' cone of uncertainty.

The next big issue is that refineries may see a decline in crude supply as offshore platforms reduce flows. Any refinery outage from storm-related damage would deepen a global refining crisis by reducing fuel production.

List of major US refineries in storm's path. 

We noted on Thursday that any abrupt westward shift in the hurricane's cone of uncertainty would put major refineries at risk, including Chevron's Pascagoula refinery on Mississippi's Gulf Coast. It refines 369,000 barrels of crude a day into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and premium base oils.

If storm-related damage materializes and disrupts US fuel supplies, could it give the Trump administration political cover for additional measures to boost domestic fuel availability, potentially including restrictions on refined-product exports ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter?

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 07:45

Tower Stocks Soar, Big Three Wireless Carriers Puke As SpaceX Strikes Low-Band Spectrum Deal

Zero Hedge -

Tower Stocks Soar, Big Three Wireless Carriers Puke As SpaceX Strikes Low-Band Spectrum Deal

Summary

  • The Rise of Starlink Mobile 
  • Tower Stocks Jump; Carrier Stocks Tumble
  • Musk says this is the "last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America." 
  • SpaceX Secures Spectrum Deal To Challenge Big Telecom
Tower Stocks Erupt, Carriers Puke

Elon Musk's SpaceX announced overnight that it agreed to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band spectrum licenses, which it will combine with its satellite-to-cell services to create a next-generation mobile carrier to challenge the Big 3 mobile network operators.

Musk wrote on X that the low-band spectrum represents "the last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America."

Market reaction in premarket trading: US cell-tower stocks jumped while wireless carriers tumbled.

  • Towers: Crown Castle gained 8.2%, American Tower rose 6.4%, and SBA Communications advanced 5.6%.

  • Carriers: T-Mobile fell 7.7%, while Verizon and AT&T each fell about 6%.

Barclays analyst Brendan Lynch wrote in a note that Starlink's "terrestrial network" is a "game-changer" for tower companies. The spectrum deal was one of six catalysts Lynch cited when he upgraded Crown Castle and American Tower in August.

Citi analyst Michael Rollins also described the deal as a net positive for tower stocks and an ongoing risk for telecom stocks. He maintained a "Buy" rating on SBA Communications, American Tower and Crown Castle, while warning that telecom and cable stocks could face near-term selling pressure.

Here's Jefferies analyst Graham Hunt's first take on the Starlink deal:

A potential positive for Towers. We see SpaceX announcement last night of an agreement to acquire 800 MHz of low-band spectrum in the US from Grain Management as a potential positive for our Towers coverage. SpaceX says the terrestrial spectrum will complement its existing 2 GHz satellite capacity, as it looks to "become the first network operator to deploy both satellite and terrestrial spectrum".

US Towers AMT, CCI and SBA (covered by Jonathan Petersen) are up 3-5% after hours, reflecting potential SpaceX will require a terrestrial tower network and could become an additional tenant on existing sites. We note, however, SpaceX has also discussed a capital-light approach based on "femtocells" installed alongside Starlink dishes, which could reduce reliance on conventional macro towers.

Bottom line, we see the acquisition supporting our view that a fully functioning mobile network requires terrestrial infrastructure investment, and that terrestrial growth remains an essential part of future mobile network infrastructure.

Read across outside the US is difficult given different spectrum ownership, licensing and regulatory structures, however overall we see this as a positive for Towers.

Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon wrote in a note, "Whether or not SpaceX ultimately builds a nationwide network, Musk's track record creates a credible threat that is likely to remain an overhang on incumbent valuations."

Peter Supino of Wolfe Research wrote, "We believe a 'someday' Starlink Mobile network is not priced into telecom stocks, and that Thursday's news increases the probability and potential speed of that scenario." 

"Last Critical Piece": SpaceX Secures Spectrum Deal To Challenge Big Telecom

Major telecom stocks puked after hours after Elon Musk's SpaceX announced it would acquire a portfolio of up to 14 MHz of paired low-band spectrum in the 800 MHz band, positioning Starlink to become a major mobile carrier in the US.

Musk wrote on X that the low-band spectrum represents "the last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America."

"While Starlink Mobile's global 2 GHz mid-band spectrum will provide high-bandwidth capacity in the United States, this new low-band spectrum will provide a coverage layer that ensures Starlink Mobile's signal penetrates through obstacles, such as walls, and can provide service to customers' devices even when they are in buildings. Critically, most existing mobile devices already support this underused band," SpaceX noted.

Subject to Federal Communications Commission approval, SpaceX plans to combine its nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio with its satellite-to-cell services, which the company said will enable "high-speed service directly to unmodified devices anywhere in the world."

AT&T tumbled 7.3% in after-hours trading, while T-Mobile US and Verizon Communications each dropped 6.6% as of 5 p.m. New York time. SpaceX rose 1.5%.

Another piece of the puzzle:

TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams recently told clients, "Any entry of SpaceX as a mobile carrier could be highly bearish for the wireless industry."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 07:22

Fashion Police: Fifteen-Year-Old Boy Is Arrested After Joking About How A Politician Dresses

Zero Hedge -

Fashion Police: Fifteen-Year-Old Boy Is Arrested After Joking About How A Politician Dresses

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

The King may have no clothes, but he has cops...

Fraser, of Walsall in the West Midlands, says he still does not understand why four police officers arrested him at his home two months ago Credit: Andrew Fox

The leader of the Conservative Party on the Wolverhampton City Council, Simon Bennett, apparently can take anything but fashion criticism. The politician reportedly called the police on a 15-year-old boy for mocking his clothing style at meetings. It is the latest example of the collapse of free speech in the United Kingdom.

A boy only identified as "Fraser" is a 15-year-old supporter of Nigel Farage's Reform UK party. He found himself searched and arrested by four officers from the West Midlands Police at his home, locked in a cell, fingerprinted, subjected to a DNA search, and taken for a mugshot. The police then searched his bedroom and telephone.

All of this was over his joking about how Bennett dressed in public.

The Telegraph reports that Fraser joked about how the Tory councilor had attended a meeting in a T-shirt and shorts. When Bennett later attended a subsequent meeting in a suit, Fraser commented that at least he was no longer "looking like a rent boy", a derogatory term for homosexual prostitutes in Britain.

Bennett admits calling the police and portrays himself as the victim of this child: "The police have not arrested for no reason... There were a number of posts that targeted me... It was unpleasant and I was targeted by a child I had no way of dealing with."

It is only the latest example of the anti-free speech culture that has taken hold in Britain, where the government has continued to expand speech criminalization policies.

In my book, "The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage," I discuss how free speech is in free fall in the United Kingdom, including the arrest of comedians and children engaged in playground taunts.

A man was convicted for sending a tweet while drunk referring to dead soldiers. Another was arrested for an anti-police T-shirt. Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a "leprechaun." Yet another was arrested for singing "Kung Fu Fighting." A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with a sign calling the religion a "cult." Last year, Nicholas Brock, 52, was convicted of a thought crime in Maidenhead, Berkshire. The neo-Nazi was given a four-year sentence for what the court called his "toxic ideology" based on the contents of the home he shared with his mother in Maidenhead, Berkshire.

While most of us find Brock's views repellent and hateful, they were confined to his head and his room. Yet, Judge Peter Lodder QC dismissed free speech or free thought concerns with a truly Orwellian statement: "I do not sentence you for your political views, but the extremity of those views informs the assessment of dangerousness."

Lodder lambasted Brock for holding Nazi and other hateful values:

"[i]t is clear that you are a right-wing extremist, your enthusiasm for this repulsive and toxic ideology is demonstrated by the graphic and racist iconography which you have studied and appeared to share with others..."

Even though Lodder agreed that the defendant was older, had limited mobility, and "there was no evidence of disseminating to others," he still sent him to prison for holding extremist views.

After the sentencing, Detective Chief Superintendent Kath Barnes, Head of Counter Terrorism Policing South East (CTPSE), warned others that he was going to prison because he "showed a clear right-wing ideology with the evidence seized from his possessions during the investigation....We are committed to tackling all forms of toxic ideology which has the potential to threaten public safety and security."

There remain, however, some in Britain who want to restore free speech. Lawyers for Fraser are planning to sue over wrongful arrest and false imprisonment. However, their client still remains in the criminal justice system. Many have suggested it was his support for Farage that drew the ire of this politician and the police.

Britain is a cautionary tale for our own country. While this speech would be clearly protected in the United States, there is a growing anti-free speech movement in this country that is aligned with European censors.

For his part, Bennett seems unrepentant in punishing his critics. He previously discussed his purpose as a public servant: "you've obviously got to find a unique selling point for yourself as well for people to buy into that. So the thing for me, is to find that unique selling point, find those single issues that matter to people." He certainly has found his "selling point," though it is tragically not "unique" in Britain.

As this case shows, censorship is the rage in Europe, and free speech is rapidly going out of fashion.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of "Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 07:10

JPM Warns Strike At Major Chilean Copper Mine Could Deliver "Significant" Production Hit

Zero Hedge -

JPM Warns Strike At Major Chilean Copper Mine Could Deliver "Significant" Production Hit

A new potential bottleneck has emerged in the global copper market as London futures hover just shy of record highs amid persistent scarcity concerns.

Natalia Corfield, JPMorgan's head of Latin America corporate credit research, wrote in a note earlier today that a strike at Centinela, a major source of Antofagasta's copper production in Chile, has begun and could soon impact production. 

"Antofagasta is facing its first-ever strike at the Centinela copper mine in Chile, set to begin this morning after mandatory mediation between the company and the Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela unions failed to produce an agreement," Corfield wrote in the note. 

She continued:

The unions, representing more than 700 workers, say the dispute centers on pay and benefit disparities between employees doing identical jobs but belonging to different unions, and they accuse Antofagasta of rejecting a proposed fix for these gaps without offering an alternative solution. 

Should no last-minute deal be reached and the strike persist, the impact on production and results could be significant, as Centinela produced 240,400 metric tons of copper in 2025, representing more than 35% of Antofagasta's total production, and a prolonged stoppage could also delay the timing of the mine's concentrator expansion. 

That said, Antofagasta has historically been successful in resolving potential work stoppages before they escalate, as seen in 2020 when initial contract rejections and a government mediation extension ultimately led to a deal without an actual strike.

Separately, Bloomberg cited the two unions behind the labor action that warned the Centinela could begin reducing copper production within about two weeks if the walkout continues. 

London copper futures trade around $14,475 a ton and just shy of record highs. 

Former Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeff Currie said in August: "Get long and buckle up."

Currie said the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention is creating conditions for a sustained repricing of scarce resources.

Read:

Another chart of concern:

Deutsche Bank's head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, added to the urgency last month, warning that global copper inventories have fallen to "unprecedented lows" and blaming some of that on US and Chinese stockpiling, which is squeezing supplies elsewhere. Ghali also noted that the copper rally in London could see another 50% run to $22,050 a ton by 2Q27 (read the report).

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 06:55

France's Debt: Too Heavy To Lift, Too Big To Spot

Zero Hedge -

France's Debt: Too Heavy To Lift, Too Big To Spot

Authored by Robert Burrows via BondVigilantes.com,

A spread can be historically wide and still offer inadequate compensation for what lies ahead...

At around 150 basis points over Bunds, French ten-year government bonds look tempting. The spread is exceptionally wide by France's historical standards. For investors accustomed to treating France as a core European sovereign, the instinct is to buy the dislocation and wait for normality to return.

But that instinct risks anchoring to a past that no longer provides a reliable guide. A spread can be historically wide and still offer inadequate compensation for what lies ahead.

A couple of years back, I argued that France's fiscal pressures and political fragmentation threatened more than its own creditworthiness. They challenged the cohesion of the eurozone itself. I more recently questioned another assumption underpinning European sovereign valuations: that Germany would always have the economic strength and fiscal capacity to support the rest. Those two concerns are now coming together with worrying implications.

Investors should therefore consider a different reference point: Italy's historical spread over Germany. Italian spreads exceeded 500 basis points during the sovereign debt crisis That is not a forecast for France, but it demonstrates how far spreads can move when markets lose confidence in fiscal sustainability and the credibility of European support. France's own trading history may be a poor measure of its potential downside in a different regime.

The central problem is moral hazard. Providing unconditional support to France would weaken the incentive to repair its public finances and invite other governments to expect similar treatment. Yet withholding support risks allowing higher borrowing costs to worsen the fiscal position and transmit stress across the monetary union.

The ECB's tools do not remove this dilemma. Its Transmission Protection Instrument considers fiscal sustainability and compliance with European policy commitments, and is intended to address unwarranted, disorderly market pressures. A repricing driven by deteriorating fundamentals presents a much harder case for intervention.

In my view, durable support would require a concerted French effort to restore fiscal credibility. The approaching presidential election complicates that bargain: European institutions need confidence that the government making commitments can deliver them and that its successor will honour them. There is no formal requirement for the ECB to wait until the election, but political clarity may be necessary before meaningful conditions can be sustained.

Germany's changing position makes this more difficult. It can remain the relative haven within Europe while becoming less able or willing to underwrite its neighbours. Bund outperformance during a crisis would not prove that the capacity for collective rescue is unlimited..

An interesting expression of this risk is to short Spanish government bonds against duration-matched Bunds. My argument is that Spain's still relatively tight spread offers too little compensation for a broader fragmentation episode. A narrower starting spread also means less negative spread carry than shorting France.

Spain offers a potentially inexpensive way to position for investors questioning the eurozone's collective insurance policy, with relatively limited downside. Let's not forget Spain does have a debt to GDP ratio of 100% and is governed by a minority Government who just yesterday called a snap election. A tempting asymmetry given the growing risks.

France at 150 basis points may look cheap against yesterday's France. Investors should be extremely cautious about assuming that yesterday is coming back.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 06:30

Turkey Rules Out Launching Attacks On Yemen From Saudi Arabia

Zero Hedge -

Turkey Rules Out Launching Attacks On Yemen From Saudi Arabia

Via Middle East Eye

Turkey will not send troops to Saudi Arabia to launch attacks on Yemen under the Mecca defense pact, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Thursday.

"This is not an offensive agreement. Turkey will not send troops to another country's territory to launch an attack there," he said during a live press conference in Ankara. Fidan added that possible Turkish deployments to Saudi Arabia would be only defensive in nature. 

via AP

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed this week to jointly deploy forces and military equipment in a show of solidarity with Riyadh in the face of Houthi attacks from Yemen.

Fidan said military delegations would assess Saudi Arabia’s operational defense needs and determine what contributions Turkey and Pakistan could make.

“The necessary work to submit the Mecca agreement to the Turkish parliament has been concluded,” he said. “We have decided to forward it to parliament as soon as possible. We have essentially completed our own preparations.”

Middle East Eye reported on Tuesday that Turkey would send additional personnel, pilots and aircraft to help protect Saudi infrastructure in the coming weeks, with further deployments subject to parliamentary approval.

Officials told MEE that Turkey had maintained technical teams, air defense systems and electronic warfare equipment in the kingdom since last year to protect critical infrastructure, including energy facilities.

One senior Turkish official said Ankara would send additional equipment, technicians, emergency response teams and accompanying combat forces.

The official said a 2010 military training agreement between Saudi Arabia and Turkey allows Ankara to deploy limited forces to the kingdom for technical purposes. Further deployments, however, would require parliamentary authorisation under the Turkish constitution.

A second Turkish official said Ankara planned to station forces at one or more command bases solely to provide defensive support to Saudi Arabia.

The officials said a limited number of Turkish special forces could be deployed to the kingdom once the Turkish parliament grants formal authorization, which is expected later this month.

Separate sources familiar with the planning told MEE that, following parliamentary approval, Turkey would deploy an undisclosed number of experienced pilots and aircraft to Saudi Arabia to counter drones and ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen.

“We don't plan to send a large group of soldiers and have no plans to directly intervene in Yemen,” the senior Turkish official said. “Ankara still believes diplomatic efforts might bear fruit in coming months.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 05:00

'The Nord Stream Pipelines Will Be Relaunched,' Says Right-Wing Polish MEP Braun During Meeting With AfD In Germany

Zero Hedge -

'The Nord Stream Pipelines Will Be Relaunched,' Says Right-Wing Polish MEP Braun During Meeting With AfD In Germany

Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix,

Grzegorz Braun, leader of the Confederation of the Polish Crown, spoke in favor of restarting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines during a meeting Wednesday with politicians from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Lubmin. He said Poland should be a shareholder in the German-Russian project.

Grzegorz Braun (first from the left) spoke together with AfD politicians in Lubmin, where the Nord Stream infrastructure is located. (Source: X /Confederation of the Polish Crown)

"Nord Stream 1, and probably Nord Stream 2 as well, will be relaunched. Russian gas will flow to the West," Braun said. He said Europe needs Russian raw materials and that their absence could have serious consequences for the economy.

Braun argued that Poland should not be excluded from future energy projects concerning Russian gas supplies. "Poland should participate, not boycott. Poland should be the initiator," he said. He also proposed that Warsaw become a shareholder in Nord Stream.

He also said that if Russian gas returns to Europe, Poland could lose economically if the supplies bypass its territory. In his view, Warsaw should seek participation in such energy projects rather than remain outside them.

Braun also spoke of the need to "normalize" and "de-escalate" relations and economic cooperation among Poland, Germany and Russia. He advocated a return to wider use of coal and the ability to buy oil and gas from suppliers offering favorable terms.

The speech took place in Lubmin, the site of the German terminal and infrastructure linked to the Nord Stream pipelines.

Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 were damaged in September 2022 by explosions on the Baltic Sea floor. Nord Stream 1 had been the main route for Russian gas to Germany. Nord Stream 2, though completed, was never launched because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly urged the German government to start supplies through the sole Nord Stream 2 line that survived the blasts. He has said that if the line operates, 27.5 billion cubic meters of gas "will immediately reach Europe."

"Why don't they do it? I just can't understand it. They can receive gas through Ukrainian territory, through TurkStream, but they cannot through the pipeline running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea," Putin said.

"In my opinion, it's crazy, just nonsense. Why? But if they don't want to, fine," Putin said in 2024 at the Vladivostok Economic Forum.

According to U.S. media reports, a group of Ukrainian officers conceived the operation to blow up Nord Stream in May 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan before he allegedly unsuccessfully tried to cancel it at the CIA's request. Polish connections also appear in press accounts of the Baltic Sea sabotage.

U.S. President Donald Trump said last May that "many people know" who blew up Nord Stream. He added that he was the first to thwart the project.

Trump imposed sanctions on Nord Stream 2 in his first term, significantly slowing construction. President Joe Biden repealed them in 2021 and reimposed them after Russia invaded Ukraine. Germany withheld permission to start the pipeline because of the war.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 03:30

These Are The World's Biggest Military Drone Exporters

Zero Hedge -

These Are The World's Biggest Military Drone Exporters

The U.S. and Iran supplied 86% of the 16,822 military drones exported worldwide from 2022 to 2025, according to SIPRI's arms-transfer data: 7,593 from the U.S. and 6,800 from Iran, out of 14 exporting countries.

U.S. exports climbed from 1,010 in 2022 to 3,219 in 2024, then fell to 402 in 2025, while Iran kept delivering about 2,000 a year. Türkiye exported only 381 drones but sold to 28 countries, more than any other supplier.

As Visual Capitalist explains further, this graphic ranks the 14 countries that exported military drones over 2022-2025, using data from the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database.

SIPRI counts drone aircraft weighing at least 150 kg, plus one-way attack drones and loitering munitions, which are built to strike once and be destroyed. The figures include drones sent as aid or built in the buyer's country under license, but largely exclude small FPV and commercial drones.

U.S. and Iran Supply 86% of All Exported Military Drones

The U.S. exported 7,593 military drones and Iran 6,800, each more than six times as many as third-ranked Germany (1,000). Nearly all went to a single war: 95% of U.S. drones went to Ukraine, while 99% of Iran's went to Russia.

The table below shows how many military drones each country exported from 2022 to 2025, along with its share of the global total:

Rank Exporter Drones Supplied (2022-2025) Share of Global Total (%) 1 U.S. 7,593 45.1 2 Iran 6,800 40.4 3 Germany 1,000 5.9 4 Poland 690 4.1 5 Türkiye 381 2.3 6 Israel 205 1.2 7 China 64 0.4 8 Czechia 32 0.2 9 Belarus 20 0.1 9 UK 20 0.1 11 Portugal 7 <0.1 12 Austria 5 <0.1 13 Italy 3 <0.1 14 Sweden 2 <0.1   Global Total 16,822 100.0

Almost all of these drones were built for a single use. One-way attack drones and loitering munitions make up 97% of the global total, which helps explain how a few wartime transfers can add up to thousands of units. Every drone the U.S. sent to Ukraine during this period was of this type.

Nearly all of Iran's exports were Shahed-136 drones that Russia also assembled and produced under license, which SIPRI still counts as Iranian exports. Iran built up its drone industry in response to a UN arms embargo that tightened over time before expiring in 2020.

Below the top two, exports drop off quickly. Only Germany (1,000) and Poland (690) delivered more than 500 drones, while the bottom seven exporters, from Czechia to Sweden, delivered 89 combined.

U.S. Military Drone Exports Fell Sharply in 2025

Drone export patterns for the two largest suppliers shifted sharply in 2025. U.S. exports climbed from 1,010 in 2022 to 3,219 in 2024, then fell to 402 in 2025, the same year new U.S. military aid to Ukraine came to a halt.

Iran, meanwhile, continued delivering about 2,000 drones a year from 2023 through 2025, making it the largest exporter in 2025 by a wide margin.

The table below shows how many military drones the U.S. and Iran exported each year from 2022 to 2025:

Country (Military Drones Exported) 2022 2023 2024 2025 U.S. 1,010 2,962 3,219 402 Iran 735 2,031 2,032 2,002

Most U.S. drones shipped in 2025 went to Taiwan, which received 291 loitering munitions and ranks third among all military drone importers from 2022 to 2025. Ukraine received 100 U.S.-made loitering munitions that year, paid for by the UK.

Europe partly filled the gap left by the U.S. in Ukraine. All 1,000 of Germany's drone exports, consisting of loitering munitions sent to Ukraine as aid, were delivered in 2025.

Türkiye Sells Military Drones to More Countries Than Anyone Else

Türkiye ranks fifth by number of drones exported, but no country has more customers. It supplied 28 countries from 2022 to 2025, more than half of the 54 countries that imported military drones and nearly three times as many as the U.S. or China, with 10 each.

Those buyers are spread across the globe. Twelve are in Africa, while the rest range from NATO members such as Poland and Romania to Pakistan, Kuwait, and Ukraine.

Türkiye also sells a different kind of drone. About three-quarters of its exports were larger aircraft such as the Bayraktar TB2, which can fly mission after mission. It supplied 281 of the 486 larger drone aircraft exported worldwide, or 58%.

That difference is why SIPRI also measures arms transfers using a second metric, the trend-indicator value (TIV). Instead of counting units, it assigns each weapon a standardized value based on the production cost of comparable weapons, so one large armed drone counts for far more than a single-use one. TIV reflects the military capability transferred rather than the price paid, and by this measure Türkiye was the largest drone exporter of the period.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 02:45

Why Is A British Charity Telling Migrants Not To Be 'Deceived' By Underage Girls?

Zero Hedge -

Why Is A British Charity Telling Migrants Not To Be 'Deceived' By Underage Girls?

Authored by James Dixon via Spiked,

Three words in a video that did the rounds last month made my skin crawl: 'Don't be deceived.'

They might sound perfectly innocent at first pass, but in context, they are chilling. The footage in question comes from a recorded session apparently run by the Aberdeen-based Mamacita Foundation, a charity that works with asylum seekers. The subject in question is sexual consent - more specifically, the age of consent.

In the footage, the seminar leader, herself an immigrant, asks the men present what age someone must be before they can approach them for 'anything sexual, intimacy'. At one point, she even seems to admit surprise that the age of consent is 16 throughout the UK - she herself had believed up until that very moment, apparently, that it was 18. She establishes the correct answer there and then, while reading from her notes.

Can we not admit that this is already quite a strange spectacle? Adult men are sitting in Britain, being taught the legal age at which they can have sex with British teenagers. But then it gets quite a lot worse.

'Please, this is very, very essential', the seminar leader says (trying to make herself heard over the chatter of the bored participants). 'Because we've had young men fall for these things that could be preventable.' Fall for these things. She then goes on to advise the men to ask young people their age and even request identification, before coming in with the extraordinary warning: 'Don't be deceived, we have young persons growing bigger than their age.' Twelve and 14-year-olds, she explains, can be taller than she is.

It should really go without saying, but a 13-year-old girl who happens to look older than 13 (as many do) is not deceiving anybody. She is simply existing in the body she happens to have, as it has naturally developed. A child (for that is what she is) does not trick a grown man by being tall for her age or developing early. She should also be able to dress and do her makeup how she likes, or how her parents agree for her to, without fear of advances or attack. Nor does a grown man who has sexual contact with a child 'fall for' her supposed wiles.

The language employed here is very revealing. It shows us quite plainly the assumptions underpinning the consent seminar. The men are accorded less moral agency than their potential victims. They are seemingly seen as being at risk of an unfortunate misunderstanding, or worse still, of being sexually manipulated by children. What they are not seen as is adults with clear legal and moral responsibilities.

It's absurd and grotesque. But perhaps most disturbing is the reduction of the whole question to the age of consent.

There is nothing inherently objectionable about teaching newcomers the laws, including the age of the consent, of the country in which they now live (though the fact that it's deemed necessary should be a bit of a red flag). Yet the law represents the minimum standard of conduct enforced by the state. It does not exhaust our moral expectations of one another. Far from it.

If the principal lesson an adult man can take from training courses like this is that 16 is the magic number, something (or plenty) has gone badly wrong. Most Western adults understand that legality is not the only consideration governing relations between adults and teenagers. A middle-aged man propositioning a girl who turned 16 two months ago will not escape moral opprobrium by claiming he was following the rules. There are norms beyond the letter of the law, and norms that cannot be taught so quickly in a simple seminar (especially one in which none of the attendees seems to be listening).

The Mamacita footage is particularly unsettling because its language is so protective of the men in the room. Be careful, check ID, don't be deceived. Where is the corresponding concern for the girls? Imagine being a 14-year-old girl hearing a grown woman telling grown men that girls your age 'sometimes grow bigger than their age', and that men should therefore avoid being 'deceived'. You would think that you and your behavior are the problem.

We have spent decades trying to drive precisely this thinking out of discussions about sexual misconduct. We were so close to doing away with victim-blaming and slut-shaming - with asking whether she led him on or looked older. We recognize these as ways of shifting responsibility from aggressor to victim, from the adult who acts to the girl who is acted on. This principle should not disappear simply because immigration enters the conversation.

I'm not smearing migrants when I say this. I'm talking about who should hold individual responsibility in any given situation, and saying that, generally speaking, it should be the adult. He is the moral actor responsible for obeying the moral norms in the society in which he lives. If someone comes to Britain, he should be treated as a moral adult. That means granting him the dignity of agency - and demanding the responsibility accompanying it. If he commits a sexual offense, responsibility belongs to him, not to licentious Western culture (because nobody is ever asking for it), and certainly not to a teenage girl who has the misfortune to look older than her years in a man's eyes.

Girls do not 'deceive' grown men simply by growing up.

James Dixon is a Glasgow-based novelist, poet and playwright.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 02:00

Interpreting Russia's Position Towards The Islamic NATO

Zero Hedge -

Interpreting Russia's Position Towards The Islamic NATO

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

While Russia officially has no problem with the Islamic NATO and even hopes that it'll one day include Iran to fulfill Russia's regional collective security vision, it would be inaccurate to claim that Russia is naïve about the latent threat that this bloc could pose as a result of Turkiye's rivalry with Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov opined in early September on his country's position towards the Islamic NATO in response to a question about the role that Russia could play in restoring stability to West Asia. He began by referencing Russia's over-two-decade-old collective security vision for the Gulf, which he also brought up earlier this spring during the Third Gulf War, since it's an enduring part of its regional policy. Lavrov then said that the latest conflict imbued this concept with a fresh sense of urgency.

It was in this context that he mentioned the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and added that "Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye, which formulated that concept of collective security and a defence alliance, have pointed out that it is also open to other countries." He then declared that "At some stage, provided this structure also coordinates conditions on which Iran could be involved in this process, it could become the best concrete step in the direction of the concept we formulated."

Seeing as how Lavrov earlier said that "Russia's role in any part of the world...has always been in supporting what the concerned countries are ready to coordinate", it can be assessed that his country's position towards the Islamic NATO is officially positive. This is especially so as regards the possibility of Iran joining the bloc, though observers should remember that its three founding states are all tied to NATO, with Turkiye being a member while Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are "Major Non-NATO Allies".

For that reason, it was recently argued that "The Islamic NATO Could Indeed Pose A Challenge To Russia" in response to Valdai Club Programme Director Timofey Bordachev article about "Why the Mecca alliance may work in Russia's favor". In particular, Turkiye is poised to lead the expansion of NATO influence into Central Asia through August 2025's "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity", Pakistan already helps terrorists and arms enter Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia might bankroll all of this.

Even if one argues that stability in Afghanistan isn't integral to Russia's security and Saudi Arabia doesn't bankroll anything anti-Russian, it's veritably the case that "Turkiye Geostrategically Challenges Russia Independently Of NATO". Russian expert Farhad Ibragimov, who earlier argued that Turkiye doesn't do the US' bidding against Russia, commendably adjusted his assessment in light of its US-approved large-scale arms deal with Ukraine that surprised Lavrov's spokeswoman. Lavrov is therefore aware of this.

To be sure, he might not share the same threat assessment of the Islamic NATO's members that was described above, but he at minimum knows that Turkiye continues to geostrategically challenge Russia despite also pragmatically cooperating with it on certain issues. It's not only a member of the Islamic NATO, but also the one geographically closest to Russia and already in a position to challenge it even more in Central Asia, which might arguably influence his and his ministry's private views about the bloc.

With that in mind, while Russia officially has no problem with the Islamic NATO and even hopes that it'll one day include Iran to fulfill Russia's regional collective security vision, it would be inaccurate to claim that Russia is naïve about the latent threat that this bloc could pose as a result of Turkiye's rivalry with Russia. Be that as it may, Russian officials are expected to remain diplomatic by not openly talking about this, but Russian experts, media, and their country's foreign supporters might be more critical.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 23:25

Customs & Border Protection Has Scanned More Than 1 Billion Travelers With Facial Biometrics

Zero Hedge -

Customs & Border Protection Has Scanned More Than 1 Billion Travelers With Facial Biometrics

Customs and Border Protection says it has now verified the identity of more than 1 billion travelers with facial biometrics, announcing the milestone in an Oct. 5 statement. The agency says the system runs at entry in every U.S. airport with international arrivals, at exit in 66 airports, at 42 seaports, and in all pedestrian lanes at the northern and southwest border crossings, with some vehicle lanes covered as well.

A passenger walks toward the airbridge as another walks up to use biometric boarding for an international flight United Airlines flight at IAH George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas, on July 21, 2020. Adrees Latif/Reuters

CBP also says it received $673 million under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to expand the system across all U.S. ports of entry, and it has struck data-sharing deals with cruise lines. By its own count, the program has biometrically identified more than 600,000 overstayers and more than 2,300 impostors since 2018.

CBP says it discards photos of American citizens within 12 hours of identity verification. Citizens who prefer to opt out can simply notify an officer or airline representative and have their passport inspected manually, the agency says.

As the Epoch Times notes further, the need for speeding up the implementation of an automatic biometric entry/exit data system came into focus following the 9/11 attacks, when several pieces of legislation, along with the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, emphasized the need for it.

In 2013, Congress mandated identifying noncitizens who enter and leave the United States.

The CBP developed the Traveler Verification Service as part of the effort - a facial biometrics matching service that automates the process.

Facial biometrics enable CBP to identify criminals, including suspected terrorists; identify people overstaying in the United States; prevent visa fraud; and block individuals already removed from the United States from reentering illegally.

"Although U.S. citizens are not covered by this rule, they may continue to voluntarily participate in the facial biometrics process at entry and exit," CBP said.

"U.S. citizens who prefer to opt out of the facial biometrics process may simply notify a CBP officer or airline representative and undergo manual inspection of their passport, as required for international travel."

Identification Systems

The United States has various identity verification and storage mechanisms, including biometrics.

The Automated Biometric Identification System holds more than 320 million unique identities, processing 400,000 biometric transactions daily.

The system is owned by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which uses biometrics for various purposes, including facilitating legitimate travel, as well as identifying and preventing illegal entry into the country.

CBP, which comes under DHS, operates the Automated Targeting System, which is a tool that compares traveler, conveyance, and cargo information against law enforcement and intelligence data.

U.S. law also requires air carriers operating in the United States to provide DHS and the CBP with certain passenger reservation details.

"This information is transmitted to CBP before departure and used primarily for purposes of preventing, detecting, investigating, and prosecuting terrorist offenses and related crimes and certain other crimes that are transnational in nature," according to CBP.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 23:00

Why Texas Is Making Data Centers Wait

Zero Hedge -

Why Texas Is Making Data Centers Wait

Authored by Ryan McEntush via Andreessen Horowitz (a16z),

At the end of 2024, Texas' grid operator had 63 GW of large new customers in its queue. By this June, that figure reached 474 GW, more than five times record peak demand, about 90% of it data centers.

Then Texas hit pause. What began as directions for data centers to pay for their own grid upgrades has since escalated to a freeze on all new permits. If you care about AI and American reindustrialization, this is important to understand. Why did it do this?

The upcoming election is part of it, but the underlying issues are worth digging into. The first is the interconnection queue. This pause is just as much about how projects apply for approval as it is about the projects themselves. Developers routinely spam projects across several sites, and many are speculative builds with no customer yet. Often these new developers have never even plugged in a GPU, let alone a power plant, so dealing with low-quality submissions puts ERCOT, which runs most of the state's grid, in a tough spot. Planners can't tell which are real, and they don't want ratepayers paying for upgrades built for projects that never show up.

The second issue is community alignment. Noise, water, emissions, and power bills are top of mind for anyone who lives nearby. And regardless of the reality of these issues, people deserve straight answers when a data center comes to town, and they haven't always gotten them (as of June, only 28 of 377 companies had answered a state survey on their resource use). In Hood County, commissioners were asked to support a tax waiver for "Project Patriot" without knowing who it was. To be fair, code names are common while companies shop for sites since a famous buyer can drive up prices, but that logic becomes tougher to defend once officials vote on tax breaks.

The broader political backdrop is important, but I'll be focusing on the energy side: why it's so hard to power a data center, all the ways developers are trying to do it anyway, and where things are likely headed.

What connecting to the grid actually means

How Amazon purchases power helps illustrate what's changed. For the last decade, they'd find a utility with network capacity, sign up as a large load, then enter long-term contracts to match their use on paper. These were often purely financial, meaning you didn't always have to prove the power could reach you, and the grid connection was easy because utilities had spare network capacity.

That's no longer true. The grid is stretched thin, and almost any new large load or generator now requires an upgrade. Power flows across every connected path, so buying from one plant doesn't reserve a route to your building (there are even markets for transmission congestion rights).

So buyers went after firm power (available around the clock) they could claim more directly, typically by restarting retired plants or by building next to existing ones. Neither was a true escape, and some of the loudest fights are over "colocation," which ERCOT describes as drawing power from a neighboring plant before it reaches the grid:

Interconnection studies are how grid planners identify the wires and substations that need upgrades for any addition to the network. ERCOT used to review studies individually under rules built for 40 to 50 large loads at a time, but 2025 brought 225 new requests by mid-November. So this June, the PUCT approved a new batch approach. Under "Batch Zero," ERCOT studies large loads of 75 MW or more together and allocates grid capacity among them.

Primarily, the studies ask what happens when something breaks. NERC's standard, the baseline for reliability across North America, covers a broad set of outage scenarios, with ERCOT adding its own requirements. Planners might simulate a transformer outage, then knock out a line or generator on top of that. Maintaining that reliability standard without shedding more load often means building additional infrastructure.

A newer risk is load dropping off the grid all at once. Many data centers switch to backup power at the first voltage dip to protect their hardware, so one bad fault can pull an enormous load off the grid in seconds. This happened earlier this year in Virginia, but was fortunately handled well.

Texas has even less room for error since ERCOT's grid is largely isolated. Under some conditions, ERCOT can lose only about 3.2 GW of load at once before causing issues. A new voltage ride-through rule now requires new data centers to stay connected through routine faults, and I've even heard of labs running dummy jobs after a training run fails just to keep load from dropping abruptly.

All of this can sound overly conservative, but the system was designed to put reliability ahead of cost. Put simply, the grid is built for the hot summer days and frigid winters when failure can mean life or death. That duty is what makes sizing the grid so hard; you build for a few peak hours but pay for it all year.

So who does pay for all this resilience? Texas typically splits transmission costs by each large customer's demand during the grid's summer peaks, so a big load that ramps down on the hottest afternoons can skip much of its share of the transmission bill. In July, regulators proposed counting all 12 monthly peaks instead and charging large loads as if they ran at full size. In other words, large buyers would pay in proportion to how big their electricity pipes need to be, not how much is flowing through them.

Sounds simple enough, but splitting up costs is often the slowest part of interconnection. An upgrade built for one campus may also improve reliability for existing customers or make room for future growth that's hard to value up front. And if any new development runs over budget or its load never shows up, everyone else is forced to cover whatever the developer's commitments didn't.

And those commitments are surprisingly cheap to make. The PUCT's new large-load rules, effective October 8, charge a flat $100,000 study fee plus a $50,000-per-MW deposit. The deposit weeds out some speculative projects, but it's a thin filter. ERCOT can reassign a project's capacity if it falls two years behind, but even a project that loses its capacity forfeits just 20% of the deposit (at least $10 million on a 1 GW campus), plus whatever the utility has already spent. Most importantly, the deposit typically only backs the upgrades built for that project, not the more expensive regional lines whose cost everyone on the grid shares.

Fully connecting a large data center can take 5 to 10 years. To accelerate deployment, a phased connection approach is becoming more common, which gives the utility more gradual targets to plan around, as well as a way for the developer to prove they can handle everything they've asked for. All of this also assumes Batch Zero is moving, which it isn't right now. ERCOT has even paused approvals for data centers of 75 MW or more to switch on, including 17 that had finished every other ERCOT step. Until the audit's December report settles which projects are eligible, ERCOT can't study them together, so the timeline is "TBD" and the load forecast is on hold.

What bringing your own power solves

For a developer facing the interconnection queue, skipping the grid entirely looks appealing. Idle GPUs cost far more than the electricity to run them, so speed matters most - what folks call "time to power." That's why developers are planning to bring their own power on site ("behind the meter"), but almost always alongside a connection to the grid, or as a bridge to one:

SemiAnalysis is already tracking 75 GW of equipment orders for behind-the-meter assets, but every site I'm aware of intends to connect to the grid as soon as it can, chiefly because on-site power almost always costs more. So, once the grid is available, say in year five, you switch.

In the meantime, pairing on-site assets with even a partial connection is smart for the same reasons we built a grid in the first place. When one plant trips, the rest of ERCOT's 1,460-plus generating units cover for it, but an islanded load (cut off from the grid) doesn't have that luxury. The grid also provides things we take for granted, like inertia, fault current, steady voltage, and black start. An island has to supply all of that itself - power systems folks know how hard this can be.

AI workloads make the job even harder. At xAI's first Memphis site, swings of 10 to 20 MW several times a second were wearing out turbine shafts until xAI added 150 MW of Tesla Megapacks. A grid ERCOT's size dilutes swings like that, but on a private plant the turbines really feel it. Expect more batteries and other energy storage as rack-level power density grows and swings become more dramatic.

Then there's fueling a site. Winter Storm Uri's lesson is that gas plants can fail together. And since they tend to keep little fuel on site (NERC calls gas a "just-in-time" fuel), spare turbines don't always help. Sometimes the pipeline doesn't even exist yet. Solar trades that fuel risk for the sun and weather, and at gigawatt scale, you need a lot of batteries. Keeping a 1 GW campus running through one 14-hour winter night takes 14 GWh from batteries, about half of all the battery storage on ERCOT's grid as of June. For an island seeking 100% uptime, covering rare events like a cloudy week or another Uri gets expensive.

Whatever the fuel, you want an island that fails gracefully and predictably, with no single point of failure. Even nuclear, about as reliable as power plants get, runs only about 92% of the time, mostly because each reactor goes offline for weeks to refuel. Redundancy in this case means effectively an entire second power plant. Thus, behind-the-meter setups favor modularity, like the more than 500 gas engines of about 4 MW each planned for Shackelford, though hundreds of engines can be a pain to maintain.

Full reliability for an island is very, very hard, but some labs and hyperscalers have shown that, forced to choose between reliability and speed, they'll pick speed. Meta has turned to tents with no backup generators, and SemiAnalysis finds buyers growing more willing to accept outages, with some island designs aiming for as little as 99% uptime, or about 88 hours of downtime a year. With GPU time this expensive, that still beats years of waiting, so for many buyers a temporary island makes sense even if it's messy.

A "private grid" that ties several plants and campuses together can take back many of the benefits a lone island gives up, at least in theory. But today Texas, like most states, only allows building your own power within tight limits:

  • Supplying yourself: You aren't a utility if you supply only yourself, your employees, or your tenants, and nobody resells the power.
  • Running a private use network: You can also run on co-located generation, sell the surplus into the grid, and draw from it when you fall short. This is the model for the Armstrong County campus, and for the West Texas one once it connects.
  • Selling to a neighbor: If you sell to the factory across the road, you need a retail electric provider certificate.
  • Stringing a wire: Build your own line, and you're probably running into the local utility's service territory.

The Cato Institute's consumer-regulated electricity proposal would loosen those limits by allowing private utilities to serve multiple customers across their own network. This isn't an entirely new idea; Utah's SB 132 lets loads of 100 MW or more contract for a fully off-grid system. Texas currently doesn't let a network like this serve multiple customers, but if the demand for power remains insatiable, I'd expect the more permissive states to win larger chunks of the buildout with this "Wild West" utility structure. (However, you may also risk a utility "death spiral," with the grid's fixed costs falling on fewer and fewer customers.)

The flip side is a utility building the island itself. Outside ERCOT, El Paso Electric plans to put 813 small gas generators from ERock (366 MW in all) beside Meta's new campus and run them as an island, on Meta's dime, for up to five years. This is an option because, unlike the transmission and distribution utilities inside ERCOT, it still owns power plants. After the island period, it would connect the plant to its grid and could seek to spread the cost across all its customers, though in September administrative judges recommended approval only if those customers are protected.

Anything that runs on fuel also needs an air permit that matches how it operates, so a diesel generator permitted only for emergencies can't run all the time. Optimistically, permits can come fast when things work. Sometimes they don't, though. In Texas, the freeze now blocks them for data centers until the audit is done.

We should also ask what instances of "bridge" gas are actually bridging to. xAI's first two Memphis data centers answer that in different ways. The first ran temporary turbines off an existing gas main until the grid arrived, then began removing them. Along the way, it ran dozens without air permits. For the second, xAI built its plant across the state line in Southaven, Mississippi, but a July order requires all 69 turbines to retire by mid-2027 as a permanent 1.2 GW plant goes up in their place. One bridge led to the grid, and the other to a power plant of xAI's own.

In August, though, the federal Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) agreed to serve that data center directly, too. Turns out it's hard to stay away from the grid!

What flexibility can buy

A campus that can keep itself running can also be easier for the grid to accommodate, even welcome. It's a large paying customer whose demand can "flex" when power is tight, whether by cutting its draw or exporting surplus power. This is how xAI got approved for grid power at its second Memphis site. What made its promise to flex credible was its ability to carry its entire load for four hours on its own power, and what the CEO of Memphis Light, Gas and Water called "the world's largest grid-connected battery system."

Batteries are only one way to flex. A campus can also shift computing to other hours or data centers, or switch to its own generators. So how much room could flexibility open up? Tyler Norris and colleagues at Duke estimated that, setting transmission limits aside, ERCOT could add about 10 GW of new load without new generation if that load gave up 0.5% of its yearly grid electricity. Since the average cutback lasts about two hours, it's also conveniently battery-shaped. Building on this, a study of PJM (the largest US power market) by Camus, encoord, and Princeton found that for each GW of new data center load, making 20% of that load flexible would save other customers $78 million a year, while bringing its own capacity for the other 80% would keep another $326 million off their bills.

For flexibility to be valuable, it's important that it's always available when operators need it. In Texas, generators already work this way under connect-and-manage. Put simply, they can hook up early as long as ERCOT can cut them down when lines are congested. Generators can live with that because at worst they sell less for a while, but a data center that has promised its customers uptime is more challenging. Some loads, like Bitcoin miners, have made the trade anyway. Batch Zero gives large loads two optional paths here:

  • Bring your own power: A campus can count its own power plant toward its size as long as it can cut back within one minute if the plant fails. So far, 11 Batch Zero projects have picked this path.
  • Agree to cuts: A campus can draw up to the full amount it asked for, but ERCOT can automatically cut anything above its guaranteed share whenever lines are full.

A campus could also pay its neighbors to cut their load instead. In PJM, Google is funding Voltus to pool up to 100 MW of batteries, thermostats, and other flexible devices across a territory. But PJM only counts what it trusts the pool to deliver, and it's a capacity deal that helps the whole grid at its peak, not a fix for any one congested line. That's a harder sell in Texas, an energy-only market where transmission is the main bottleneck. Texas has also barred colocated campuses from getting paid for similar services, since under SB 6 they already have to shut off when ERCOT tells them.

Even so, Texas has been a leader in distributed resources. One Base Power fleet, run with the co-op GVEC, passed ERCOT's pilot tests to sell directly into the wholesale market on its first attempt, and is now expanding to 50 MW. These pilots are important; planners need that kind of proof before they'll design around these fleets. But once trusted, distributed resources can rapidly add capacity without waiting for an expensive new "peaker" power plant, lines, substations, or a lengthy interconnection process.

Other hardware can help, too. Unlike legacy steel units, a solid-state transformer uses semiconductor switches, so software can measure and steer the power flowing through it. Alongside network upgrades like reconductoring (restringing lines with higher-capacity wire) and dynamic line ratings (rating lines for actual weather instead of worst-case conditions), that greater visibility and control can squeeze more out of wires ratepayers already funded. It's a big reason we backed Heron Power, which is set to install its solid-state transformers at a West Texas battery site with RWE.

The problem is that most of these tools help operators keep things running day to day, but planners don't always count them when they size upgrades. Nothing in physics forces that, though. A September study by Piq Energy, using Base Power's data on potential fleets, found that about 80 MW of home batteries, strategically sited to relieve transmission constraints, could resolve all overloads triggered by a hypothetical new 100 MW data center near Fort Worth.

Batch Zero doesn't consider things like this yet. It still plans upgrades for a flexible campus's full planned load, since that path is a bridge to firm service, and there's no option to stay flexible for good in exchange for smaller upgrades. Flexibility gets a campus connected sooner, but it doesn't shrink the upgrades. Planners could instead size them smaller by crediting flexibility and other resources that relieve the same bottleneck, assuming they're measured in real time and perform reliably.

All of this saves time and money by getting more out of what's already in the ground, but no amount of flexibility gets the grid out of building more generation and wires for all the demand coming down the pipe.

Getting to hundreds of gigawatts

On-site power and flexibility will decide how the next few campuses energize, but the labs and hyperscalers I talk to worry most about scale. Their power teams tend to split in two: one picks sites and equipment for the next couple of years, and the other asks how to connect hundreds more gigawatts after 2030.

This is a lot! Run, say, 100 GW all year and it's 876 TWh, about a fifth of what the country used in 2025. Here's what power developers told the Energy Information Administration (EIA) they planned to add in 2026 across the entire grid.

Every source helps, and much of it is headed to Texas anyway. But at last year's average capacity factors (how much plants actually produce versus their maximum), the planned solar, wind, and gas plants would make around 150 TWh a year, or about a sixth of that 876 TWh.

To be fair, that gas bar likely understates what's being built, since EIA's survey only counts plants tied to the grid. In this way, much of the 75 GW of on-site power equipment already on order could be ghost capacity that charts like this one will miss. Still, gas remains popular because it generally runs whenever you need it. And because of that, the constraint is mostly getting the equipment in the first place, so buyers are turning to alternatives that can be easier to find, like reciprocating engines and fuel cells.

That said, gas feels like an incomplete answer to me. I'm no Greenpeace warrior, but running 100 GW around the clock at gas plants' average rate would release nearly 8% of the country's energy-related emissions. Often the easiest equipment to get is even less efficient, too.

Solar is compelling because it already has the production scale the labs are aiming for. The problem is that it's mostly in China. The world added more than 600 GW in 2025, but China alone makes more than 80% of the world's solar components and battery cells. From what I can tell, Chinese suppliers don't mind selling to us that much, at least partly because they see our scale-up as "cute." However, China reportedly weighed curbing exports of specific solar manufacturing equipment. Washington has also put on pressure, with forced-labor shipment holds, new tariffs, and phasing out wind and solar credits. Despite this, Elon is aiming for 200 GW a year of US solar manufacturing on his own, obviously solar-pilled.

Scaling firm power that isn't gas is much more complicated. Uprates and restarts can squeeze a little more from the existing nuclear fleet, but the real upside is new reactors, as we've argued before. Meta and Amazon have signed big deals, but much of it is still options and targets. So far, the military has been a stronger buyer to build microreactors on its bases, which is how factory-built reactors can learn to get faster and cheaper (blame EPC as much as the NRC). Geothermal could also leverage drilling (something Texas knows well) for repeatable power - Google and Meta appear quite interested.

Regardless of the power source, it all still ends up waiting on other equipment like transformers and switchgear, and all the crews to install them. Large power transformers now take more than two years to arrive, and the FCC has limited new foreign-made inverters alongside an August emergency order that could further bar Chinese-made equipment from the grid.

Someone also has to build the wires. In 2008, Texas regulators ordered the CREZ lines to carry West Texas wind, then spread their $7 billion cost across every ratepayer. Now they're approving even bigger 765 kV lines, but it's going slower than many would like. Some of that is just (unfortunately) typical construction, which is slow and expensive anywhere, but there's also a myriad of additional regulatory hurdles on top. The federal permitting deal taking shape in Washington could help move things along if Congress can pass it.

Admittedly, I'm more confident that we'll need a lot of power than I am about the exact shape it takes. My bet is that a handful of setups, depending on geography and flexibility, get built over and over. Maybe on-site gas and batteries carry a campus until its grid connection shows up, then stick around as backup to flex when the grid is tight. Solar gets layered on now where it fits, and geothermal and reactors come in once they prove out.

Past 2030, it's even harder to say who ends up building and owning all that power. One answer is that the same company builds both the plant and the campus (vertical integration), which Google's purchase of Intersect may signal. Another is that oil and gas companies, like Chevron or Williams, become broader grid builders, and it isn't hard to picture them, or "neo-utilities" like NRG and NextEra, building private grids that serve several campuses, assuming the law enables it.

I don't know which way it goes yet, but they'll all be buying from the same equipment makers. That market is huge and surprisingly ill-equipped to meet inflecting demand. Given that, I see two major ways for startups to break in:

  • Integration: Some take familiar hardware and win on integration or business model, the way Base Power runs home batteries as a trusted aggregated resource.
  • Technology: Others bring new technology so much better that early adopters will take a chance on it, which is what Heron Power is aiming to do with solid-state transformers.

A third pitch, crudely put as "worse but faster," sells well in a shortage, but I'd ask what those profits are being reinvested in, because it might get hard to compete if broader supply catches up.

Indeed, shortages like these are an opening for startups, but it helps to understand why incumbents aren't quick to fill them. The last bet on a turbine boom ended in a $22 billion GE Power write-down and helped cost GE's CEO his job. A startup has to survive the busts incumbents are planning around, as well as compete globally with Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power, and all sorts of suppliers in places like India and China. Customers may pay for speed today, but keeping them will take reliable, competitively priced equipment and a service team that knows what it's doing.

Every step of site development is hard. Vendors like GE Vernova now take nonrefundable deposits just to reserve a manufacturing slot, leaving developers with a chicken-and-egg problem. Lenders want a long-term contract with a solid customer, who wants a credible timeline, and that timeline takes deposits the developer usually needs lenders to fund. Bring in an unproven vendor and the loop gets even harder to close (and markets notice fast when it breaks). Once it closes, everything else still has to go right.

For a new vendor, even getting into a campus's first phase is difficult. Hardly anyone has placed a large, firm order for data center power equipment without thousands of hours of operation. For example, FTAI's big order rests on the CFM56, a jet engine that has logged more than a billion flight hours, while Crusoe stepped back from Boom as Boom's first engine core was still gearing up for tests. So even credible teams building awesome technology face a cold-start problem. Thus, getting your product designed into a real project matters far more than early deposits or revenue.

After the pause

I think it's fair to check that projects in Batch Zero are what their developers swore they are, and credible projects should move ahead soon. The permit freeze is harder to defend, though I see the state's logic if the goal is to approve nothing until the audit is done. That said, I don't like that it makes a developer that has funded its first phase, even one bringing its own power, wait like a speculator. Texas should narrow it now by exempting generators permitted only for emergencies and projects that have funded their first phase. The October 19 update to the governor from the state's environmental regulator is the obvious place to start this conversation.

Once the review is done, the ongoing tests can be more straightforward. A developer that pays its security deposit, pays for the capacity it reserves, and hits phased milestones should get a connection date it can plan for. It should also connect sooner if it agrees to cut back when the grid is tight (Batch Zero already does some of this). Going further, the utility building upgrades should probably answer for delays much like a developer does. Perhaps Texas could open lines to competitive bids with cost caps and penalties.

Whatever Texas decides, power will likely stay tight for years while the bottleneck keeps moving. Importantly, data centers are not that unique in the equipment they need; they just hit these limits first. In this sense, they're the perfect rehearsal, because much of what we want to (re)build in this country will run on the same stuff.

That also makes it an opportunity I'd hate to waste. AI companies will pay nearly any price for power and can build almost anywhere, so they can help fund upgrades the grid needs anyway. Analyst Hans Royal estimates inference could pay an absurd $5,600 per MWh for power and still earn a decent return, nearly 60 times what the average US industrial customer pays. That can strain local prices for gas, power, labor, and materials, but the infrastructure it funds can be worth far more. Admittedly, that argument can be a hard sell right now. In an August poll, 56% of Texas voters said more data centers would hurt local energy bills.

The worry is fair since the honest answer is that it depends on who pays. In a perfect world, developers cover their upgrades and pay for the capacity they reserve, spreading the grid's fixed costs across more sales so everyone else pays a smaller share. Berkeley Lab found that from 2019 to 2025, the states with the most load growth generally saw average prices fall after inflation. Imagine all the money racing into AI helping the next factory connect and the next household electrify without an unaffordable bill (or a grid too tight for an EV, or a home robot). That household may never open a chatbot and still come away far better off. We're already seeing early versions of this:

I would not be surprised to see hyperscalers covering a whole town's power bills as part of hosting a local campus. Most states, Texas included, don't let a utility single out one town, but at a small utility where data centers use most of the power, like Oregon's Umatilla Electric, covering a typical household's bill for each of its roughly 17,000 meters would only cost about $30 million a year. Such an agreement could pencil because that's less than 0.5% of what a 1 GW campus costs to own and run.

It's also important to read the fine print when deals are made. In Arkansas, Google agreed to pay $443 million up front toward an Entergy solar plant for its data center. The catch is that Entergy counted it as prepayment for power, so it can still seek the plant's full cost plus a return from all its customers. And Entergy sued two newspapers to stop them from reporting on the contract, then dropped the suit after a judge refused. Even if the deal is legal, this isn't how you build trust with the community.

A campus that levels with its neighbors and actually follows through keeps people on its side, and the next one gets easier to welcome. Get that wrong and everyone else can end up paying for it. In PJM, the market monitor says data centers account for 38% of the latest capacity bill, some $6.3 billion. Let me be clear: none of that justifies a blanket pause. But it does mean getting the rules and incentives right as we scale up development. AI companies have pledged to pay their way, and most would rather connect to the grid than avoid it. It seems ideal for everyone that we let them do so instead of driving that spending into private islands, or pushing infrastructure upgrades that we'll need anyway onto everyone else's bills.

Texas created the energy fast lane first; now it has the opportunity to show us a better one, and I expect it will. Power is where America finds out whether it can still build.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 22:35

Pages