Individual Economists

MiB: McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty Insurance

The Big Picture -



 

 

This week, I speak with McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty. We discuss how he transformed the family boat insurance business into a “sexy” driver-forward business. We also discuss our love of collectable cars and his love of his first car, a Porsche, that he bought at the age of 13.

A transcript of our conversation is available here on Tuesday; A list of his current reading is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Jason Wenks, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

 

 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

Lots of musical bios:  Keith Richards, Slash others
Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
Sonic Boom
George Washington
Benjamin Franklin
Wealth of Nations
entire Dune series
The Foundation series,

The post MiB: McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty Insurance appeared first on The Big Picture.

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The Anti-Amazon. One brilliant feature of the Costco experience is, paradoxically, the constraint: as opposed to Amazon, with its near infinite assortment, or even Walmart, which has approximately 130,000 SKUs (stock keeping units, or distinct items) in the average Supercenter, any given Costco will only hold 4,000 SKUs to choose from. While most retailers today assume that consumers want ever greater assortment, Costco’s popularity speaks to a countervailing desire for less choice. Indeed, the pre-selection of items for sale in their warehouses is part of the value proposition: not only are you going to get a lot of a particular thing for a good price, but you also won’t have to deliberate over micro-differences in a more robust assortment. Benjamin Fong on what a genuine alternative to Amazon’s logistics empire would require. A serious, wonky look past the everything-store. (Phenomenal World)

How do you solve a problem like social media? Part I It’s all well and good saying we should regulate social media. But social media is already regulated. So why is it failing? And what could we do in response? The first installment of a serious policy analysis of what regulation would actually look like—beyond the usual hand-wringing and congressional hearings that go nowhere. (Chaminda Jayanetti) see also At 17, She Sued Meta and Google, and Won. Now She’s Ready to Tell Her Story: Kaley Glenn-Mills’ lawsuit reshaped the fight to protect children from social media. She says she still can’t stop scrolling. . (Bloomberg free)

The Second Derivative: Why No One Understands the AI Boom: The market misremembers 2008. That same blind spot sits at the center of the AI boom. The second derivative problem: bulls and bears alike are arguing about the AI boom’s level when the rate of change is what matters. (Groundbrkr)

‘There Is No Going Back’: The Inside Story of Europe’s Rupture With America: Trump’s tariffs, threats against Greenland spurred a rebellion by top leaders; the limits of ‘flattery diplomacy’. The WSJ’s inside story of Europe’s rupture with America: “There is no going back.” The post-war alliance, unwinding in real time. (Wall Street Journal) see also The Canadian Who Steered Europe Away From the U.S. Facing threats from Trump, Mark Carney emerged as a central figure in a project to reshape the Western alliance The WSJ profiles the diplomat who helped Europe decouple from American strategic dependence — a realignment that will outlast any single administration. (Wall Street Journal)

The Great Blogging Collapse: What Happened to 100 Successful Blogs? [Study] I tracked 100 once-successful blogs over four years to understand what happened after Google’s Helpful Content Updates and the rise of AI Overviews. The results were striking: the median blog lost 85% of its organic traffic, while only 21 continued to grow. This study reveals the patterns behind the winners, the losers, and what it takes to build a blog that can survive in 2026.(Daniel Stanica)

What Makes Humans Stupid: It takes intelligence to get things spectacularly wrong. An essay on our undoing. Nautilus on the cognitive biases, social pressures, and structural incentives that systematically produce bad decisions—even among the smartest people. (Nautilus)

Capitalists Love This Podcast. So Do Their Critics. “Odd Lots” goes deep on lentils in Saskatchewan, the global tractor supply and trucking markets. Is it the skeleton key to understanding this strange economic moment? Congrats to Jope & Tracey!  The NYT profiles Odd Lots, the Bloomberg podcast that’s become required listening for both the financial establishment and the people who want to dismantle it. The rare show that doesn’t condescend to either audience. (New York Times)

The Inside Story Of Leverage Research 1.0 Between 2011-2019, Leverage Research explored the deep psychology of Effective Altruism and Silicon Valley, then suddenly dissolved among rumors of “demons.” What happened? Lydia Laurenson’s firsthand account of Leverage Research 1.0 — one of the rationalist movement’s stranger experiments, told from the inside. (Substack)

The Terrorist in the Brain: What Robin Williams and Bruce Willis can teach us about dementia—and about the industry that has grown up around our fear of it Skeptic on Lewy body dementia — the ‘terrorist in the brain’ that claimed Robin Williams and afflicts Bruce Willis — and what medicine can actually offer. (Skeptic)

How Lizzo Became One of Pop Culture’s Great Flops: The singer is experiencing a new form of downward mobility—and she’s not alone. The Atlantic on how Lizzo became one of pop culture’s great flops — a case study in how fast fame’s flywheel reverses. (The Atlantic)

Video of the day: Every Jon Favreau Movie, Explained by Jon Favreau | Vanity Fair

Be sure to check out our bonus episode of Master’s in Business with David Risher, CEO of Lyft, one of North America’s largest ride-sharing networks. He joined Lyft’s board in 2021 when the firm was burning cash and losing ground to Uber. Lyft has returned to profitability, with its stock rising more than 75% since Risher took the reins as CEO in 2023. In Q1 2026, the firm had 28.3 million active riders and did $4.9B in gross bookings, with $1.7B revs, and $132.8m in EBITDA. Previously, he held senior roles at Microsoft and Amazon.

Mag-7 underperformance returns top 5 S&P 500 weighting to the level 2 years ago

Source: Deutsche Bank Research Institute

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Day The Grid Failed: The Seventeen Minutes That Exposed The Fragile Foundations Of Modern Civilization

Zero Hedge -

The Day The Grid Failed: The Seventeen Minutes That Exposed The Fragile Foundations Of Modern Civilization

Authored by Milan Adams via Preppgroup,

This is a fictionalized scenario exploring a hypothetical grid collapse.

By the time the first official statement reached the public, the statement itself no longer mattered. Television networks were already off the air across much of the continent, mobile networks had fragmented into isolated pockets, and the internet - once assumed to be nearly indestructible - had become a collection of disconnected islands separated by an invisible wall of silence. Rumors traveled farther than verified information, speculation outran evidence, and for the first time in generations millions of people discovered how completely their understanding of the world depended on a stream of data they had always taken for granted. Historians would later argue over the precise moment the crisis began, but among engineers and emergency planners there was remarkably little disagreement. The collapse did not start when cities lost power. It started hours earlier, hidden inside measurements so small that they resembled ordinary background noise rather than the opening chapter of the largest infrastructure failure in modern history.

Three months before the blackout, engineers working at several independent transmission operators had submitted technical reports describing unusual synchronization anomalies affecting equipment connected to long-distance high-voltage networks. None of the incidents resulted in service interruptions. Most lasted only seconds before disappearing, leaving behind little more than incomplete diagnostic logs and confused maintenance teams. Similar anomalies occur every day somewhere in the world, usually explained by faulty sensors, timing errors, firmware bugs, or brief disturbances caused by weather. On paper, nothing justified escalating the reports beyond routine analysis. Yet a handful of specialists noticed an uncomfortable coincidence. Facilities separated by hundreds of kilometers, operated by different companies using different hardware, were documenting nearly identical irregularities with surprising consistency. Individually, each report looked insignificant. Viewed together, they formed a pattern that nobody could adequately explain.

Among the few people attempting to connect those isolated observations was electrical systems analyst Dr. Elena Varga, whose career had been built on studying failures that most people never noticed. She was not the kind of scientist who chased extraordinary theories. Colleagues often described her as frustratingly cautious, the sort of researcher who preferred saying "we don't know yet" over making bold predictions. Her office shelves held decades of technical journals instead of trophies, and she had spent more time inside substations than conference halls. When the anomaly reports began arriving from different operators, she did not suspect sabotage or some revolutionary new technology. She assumed someone had discovered an obscure software defect hidden inside synchronization protocols used by aging infrastructure. What concerned her was not the disturbance itself but the remarkable geographical distribution. Independent systems are supposed to fail independently. When they begin exhibiting nearly identical behavior over enormous distances, experienced engineers stop asking what is broken and start asking what every affected system has in common.

The answer, at least initially, appeared disappointingly ordinary. Every installation relied on highly accurate timing signals to coordinate power flowing across thousands of kilometers of transmission lines. Modern electrical grids function less like isolated power plants and more like orchestras whose musicians never meet. Every generator must maintain frequency within extremely narrow tolerances while responding continuously to changing demand. Tiny timing discrepancies can ripple through protective systems in unexpected ways, which is precisely why grid operators invest enormous resources monitoring them. Elena spent weeks comparing datasets from operators across multiple regions, convinced the evidence would eventually point toward a mundane explanation. Instead, every new dataset deepened the mystery. The disturbances did not spread like conventional faults. They appeared almost simultaneously, lingered briefly, then disappeared without damaging equipment or triggering emergency shutdowns. Whatever produced them behaved less like a malfunction and more like an external influence brushing against the grid before vanishing.

Her preliminary findings attracted little attention outside a small circle of specialists. Infrastructure warnings rarely make headlines because successful infrastructure is almost invisible. Society notices bridges only after they collapse, water systems only after taps run dry, and electrical networks only after lights fail to turn on. Government agencies acknowledged receiving technical briefings but found no evidence suggesting an immediate threat. Manufacturers reviewed equipment logs and concluded that no common hardware defect could account for every reported anomaly. Several academic reviewers argued that Elena's statistical model overstated the similarities between unrelated events. Others suggested increased solar activity as a possible explanation, although observatories monitoring space weather found nothing unusual during the relevant periods. By early autumn, the conversation had quietly faded. Budgets shifted toward more immediate priorities, research meetings were postponed, and another unexplained technical curiosity seemed destined to disappear beneath the endless flow of newer concerns.

Looking back after the disaster, investigators would discover that the most revealing evidence had been available from the beginning. It simply existed in places that rarely communicate with one another. Satellite operators had recorded fleeting disturbances affecting orientation sensors. Long-haul fiber operators noticed synchronization errors too brief to interrupt service but too consistent to dismiss completely. Maritime navigation systems documented isolated timing discrepancies that captains attributed to equipment calibration. Radio observatories logged bursts of interference that did not resemble known atmospheric phenomena. Each organization filed its own reports, reached its own conclusions, and archived its own data. No single institution possessed enough information to recognize that these isolated anomalies were fragments of a much larger picture.

Weeks later, when investigators finally reconstructed the timeline, one uncomfortable realization emerged again and again. The catastrophe had not arrived without warning. It had arrived with hundreds of warnings scattered across dozens of industries, each too small to trigger alarm on its own and too fragmented for anyone to assemble before it was too late.

The First Seventeen Minutes

The first indication that the event extended far beyond a conventional infrastructure failure did not come from a dramatic explosion or the sudden loss of an entire city. Instead, it emerged from dozens of control rooms that had never been designed to communicate with one another in real time. Electrical operators were watching frequency deviations, telecommunications engineers were troubleshooting synchronization faults, air traffic specialists were trying to understand disappearing radar returns, and satellite controllers were documenting brief anomalies that seemed too insignificant to justify escalating. Each organization believed it was confronting an isolated technical problem, and each followed procedures that had been refined over decades of responding to localized failures. Only much later, after millions of log entries had been reconstructed, did investigators realize that these seemingly unrelated incidents represented different perspectives of the same unfolding crisis.

Inside the National Energy Coordination Centre, conversations remained remarkably calm during those opening minutes. Nobody raised their voice. Nobody spoke about catastrophe. Engineers compared readings, requested confirmation from neighboring transmission operators, and assumed the irregularities would eventually reveal a familiar explanation. Modern electrical grids are constantly correcting themselves, balancing production against consumption with astonishing precision. Minor deviations are expected, and operators spend their careers distinguishing harmless fluctuations from genuine threats. What unsettled the room that morning was not the size of the disturbance but its consistency. Independent monitoring systems, separated by hundreds of kilometers and built by different manufacturers over different decades, were reporting nearly identical timing behavior. It was an outcome so statistically unusual that several technicians initially suspected a software fault affecting the monitoring platform itself rather than the infrastructure it was observing.

As additional reports arrived, the pattern grew increasingly difficult to dismiss. Regional substations that had no direct operational relationship began exhibiting synchronized protective responses within fractions of a second. Some transmission corridors automatically disconnected before reconnecting moments later. Others remained online but reported conflicting measurements that prevented automated balancing systems from determining whether the surrounding network was stable. None of these individual actions represented a malfunction. Every relay, breaker, and protection device performed exactly as it had been engineered to perform when confronted with uncertain operating conditions. The difficulty arose because thousands of perfectly functioning safety mechanisms were now responding simultaneously to a disturbance that existed outside the assumptions upon which those systems had been designed.

A Timeline That Would Later Define The Investigation

When the International Infrastructure Commission reconstructed the event months later, investigators established a sequence that became central to understanding why recovery proved so difficult. Although individual timestamps varied slightly across different regions, the broader progression remained remarkably consistent.

Time Infrastructure Activity Immediate Consequence 08:43 Grid synchronization anomalies detected across multiple transmission operators. Automated monitoring classified the disturbance as low priority. 08:45 Satellite timing irregularities affected precision synchronization services. Network timing drift began appearing across communications infrastructure. 08:47 Protective relays isolated sections of the transmission network. Regional balancing capacity declined significantly. 08:50 Telecommunications providers reported widespread routing instability. Emergency services experienced delayed digital communications. 08:56 Multiple regional grids entered self-protection mode simultaneously. Cascading instability spread faster than manual intervention could contain it.

The timeline appears almost orderly when reduced to a table, yet the lived reality was anything but. Across countless cities, ordinary routines continued because almost nobody could perceive the invisible processes occurring beneath the surface of daily life. Financial institutions processed transactions more slowly than usual, hospitals switched briefly between redundant communication channels without interrupting patient care, and transportation networks quietly activated contingency software that had rarely been used outside controlled simulations. Even where warning indicators appeared, they were interpreted through the lens of previous experience. A railway dispatcher who had encountered signaling faults hundreds of times before saw no immediate reason to suspect that the issue belonged to a continental emergency. Likewise, a telecommunications engineer investigating unstable timing signals naturally searched for faults within his own network rather than imagining that identical symptoms were emerging across several countries at precisely the same moment.

Dr. Elena Varga would later describe those seventeen minutes as the most deceptive phase of the entire disaster. In her testimony before investigators, she argued that modern infrastructure had become exceptionally resilient against individual failures while simultaneously growing vulnerable to disturbances capable of affecting multiple sectors at once. The grid itself did not simply collapse; it attempted to preserve itself. Every protective decision made by automated systems reduced immediate risk within its own area of responsibility, but those local decisions gradually deprived neighboring regions of the stability they depended upon. It resembled thousands of watertight doors closing aboard a damaged ship. Each compartment protected itself exactly as intended, yet every sealed section made the vessel increasingly difficult to stabilize as a whole.

Beyond the control rooms, the first visible signs remained subtle enough that most people dismissed them as temporary inconveniences. Digital departure boards at railway stations displayed outdated schedules before freezing completely. Contactless payment terminals occasionally rejected valid cards despite functioning internet connections moments earlier. Navigation applications began calculating impossible routes as positioning data drifted beyond acceptable tolerances. In office buildings, secure access systems briefly denied entry to employees whose credentials had worked only minutes before. None of these incidents appeared alarming in isolation. Together, however, they reflected a common problem unfolding deep beneath the software that modern society depended upon but rarely acknowledged.

The situation changed irrevocably shortly after nine o'clock. Operators who had spent the previous twenty minutes attempting to understand scattered anomalies suddenly found themselves confronting a far more dangerous reality. Independent regions that normally exchanged enormous quantities of electrical power every second were no longer behaving as parts of a single synchronized network. Instead, they had begun separating into isolated electrical islands, each struggling to balance its own supply and demand without the support of neighboring systems. Some managed to stabilize temporarily through local generation. Others exhausted their available reserves within minutes, triggering automatic shutdown sequences designed to prevent catastrophic equipment damage. From that moment onward, the objective was no longer preventing the crisis. It was preventing the crisis from becoming irreversible.

The Morning After

At first light, the scale of the disaster became impossible to ignore.

From elevated highways overlooking major metropolitan areas, the familiar rhythm of morning traffic had disappeared. Thousands of vehicles remained exactly where they had stopped the previous evening, abandoned after drivers realized fuel could no longer be purchased and navigation systems had become unreliable. Office towers that normally reflected the first rays of sunlight stood silent, their glass facades concealing floors without lighting, ventilation, or functioning communications. The silence itself was unsettling. Modern cities are rarely quiet, yet without electric trains, traffic signals, industrial machinery, advertising displays, or the constant background hum of air-conditioning systems, entire districts seemed strangely detached from the world that had existed only a day earlier.

Emergency services quickly discovered that the greatest challenge was no longer the loss of electricity but the disappearance of coordination. Local police departments continued operating, hospitals remained open wherever backup generation could be maintained, and firefighters responded to emergencies as they always had. What had changed was the invisible network connecting those institutions. Dispatch centers could no longer exchange live information with neighboring regions. Fuel deliveries became unpredictable because logistics companies had lost access to centralized routing systems. Medical supplies accumulated in some cities while hospitals elsewhere struggled to obtain essential equipment. The crisis was no longer technological alone; it had become logistical, and logistics had always been the foundation upon which modern civilization quietly depended.

Inside government emergency headquarters, officials faced decisions unlike any they had rehearsed during previous exercises. Most continuity plans assumed that unaffected regions would assist those experiencing difficulties. This event offered no such luxury. Every province, every state, and every neighboring country was confronting variations of the same problem simultaneously. Resources still existed, but moving them efficiently had become increasingly difficult as transportation, communications, and energy systems continued operating at only a fraction of their normal capacity.

Reconstructing The Impossible

The first formal investigation began less than seventy-two hours after the initial failures. Engineers understood that memories fade quickly during disasters, and electronic records are often incomplete once systems begin shutting themselves down. Teams were dispatched to substations, telecommunications exchanges, satellite control facilities, airports, and power stations with a single objective: preserve every available log before damaged hardware deteriorated or backup storage systems exhausted their remaining power.

Contrary to early speculation, there was no indication that a conventional cyberattack had initiated the cascade. Security analysts found no malicious software capable of explaining the synchronized failures across independent infrastructure. Likewise, forensic examinations revealed no evidence of coordinated physical sabotage against transmission equipment. Individual components had behaved largely as their manufacturers intended. The failure had emerged from the interaction between systems rather than the destruction of any single one.

As additional datasets became available, investigators noticed another remarkable pattern. Equipment installed decades earlier often continued functioning long after newer digital systems had entered protective shutdown. Older relay mechanisms, mechanical switching equipment, and analog communication devices demonstrated a resilience few engineers had expected. The discovery prompted difficult questions about the unintended consequences of pursuing efficiency above all else. Modern infrastructure had become faster, more interconnected, and significantly more capable than previous generations, but it had also developed dependencies so intricate that relatively small disturbances could propagate farther than anyone had anticipated.

Several universities later collaborated on extensive simulations attempting to reproduce the sequence of failures described throughout the investigation. None produced identical results, yet they shared a common conclusion: the catastrophe was not inevitable. Small differences in infrastructure design, timing architecture, redundancy, and operational procedures frequently altered the outcome. Some simulated networks stabilized successfully after temporary disruptions, while others fragmented almost immediately. The lesson was uncomfortable but valuable. Resilience depended less on possessing the most advanced technology and more on ensuring that critical systems could continue functioning independently when every surrounding layer became unreliable.

Lessons Written In Darkness

In the months that followed, recovery became less about rebuilding damaged equipment than rediscovering forgotten ways of operating. Municipal governments restored paper maps to emergency vehicles. Hospitals expanded manual record-keeping procedures that had gradually disappeared from daily practice. Utility companies commissioned analog communication links alongside their digital networks, accepting that technological diversity could itself become a form of protection. Engineers who had spent decades optimizing efficiency now found themselves discussing concepts that previous generations would have considered ordinary: mechanical redundancy, local autonomy, and graceful degradation rather than absolute dependence on centralized coordination.

Communities adapted more quickly than many experts had predicted. Neighborhood organizations emerged spontaneously to distribute food, share information, and assist vulnerable residents. Amateur radio operators established communication corridors between isolated towns. Local workshops began repairing equipment that would previously have been discarded. Schools became supply centers during the day and community meeting places after sunset. The event revealed not only the fragility of infrastructure but also the resilience of ordinary people once they understood that recovery depended as much on cooperation as technology.

Months later, when electricity had returned to nearly every affected region and communication networks once again carried billions of messages each day, researchers noticed an unexpected social change. Public confidence in technology had not disappeared, but it had become more measured. Infrastructure was no longer viewed as an invisible certainty existing somewhere beyond public attention. Citizens who had rarely considered where their electricity originated or how digital networks synchronized across continents began asking questions that had once been confined to engineering conferences. Governments responded by publishing resilience strategies in far greater detail than before, while universities reported increased enrollment in electrical engineering, emergency management, and critical infrastructure research.

The commission responsible for documenting the event concluded its report with observations that extended beyond transformers, satellites, or transmission lines. Modern civilization, it argued, had achieved extraordinary complexity by connecting countless systems into a seamless whole. That achievement remained one of humanity's greatest accomplishments, but it also carried responsibilities that had too often been overlooked. True resilience was not measured solely by speed, efficiency, or automation. It depended equally on diversity, transparency, and the ability to continue functioning when assumptions that had remained unquestioned for decades suddenly ceased to hold true.

The final archive assembled by investigators occupied thousands of pages, preserving technical analyses, personal diaries, engineering logs, emergency broadcasts, handwritten notes, and countless individual accounts from those who had experienced the blackout firsthand. Some readers searched those documents hoping to identify a single decisive mistake that could explain everything. They found none. Instead, the archive documented something more profound: a civilization that had spent generations perfecting interconnected systems, only to discover that its greatest strength could also become its greatest vulnerability.

Long after cities returned to life and the familiar glow of illuminated skylines erased memories of those unusually dark nights, one question continued to appear in scientific conferences, parliamentary hearings, and engineering classrooms alike. It was not whether such a catastrophe could happen exactly as described again, but whether future societies would recognize the warning signs of the next crisis before they became visible to everyone else.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 22:00

With Friday Treasury Action, There Goes The 'No New Sanctions' Clause Of The MOU

Zero Hedge -

With Friday Treasury Action, There Goes The 'No New Sanctions' Clause Of The MOU

The United States unveiled new sanctions on Iran Friday, an act which crucially breaks a key aspect of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreement signed last month - namely that no new sanctions can be imposed while the warring sides negotiate to reach a lasting peace.

The ceasefire itself is already out the window, President Trump has said late this week, amid contradictory reports over indirect talks being back on. The new US Treasury action specifically targets an Iranian businessman accused of managing a global financial network for the country's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

The US is also going after multiple exchange houses that Washington says seek to get around sanctions and maintain access to foreign currency. The three entities named are Mohammad Darbani and Partners, Lavasani and Partners, and Mohsen Khandan and Partners - along with their managing partners.

After earlier boasting that he helped engineer a currency collapse in order to get masses into the streets - related to the last January protests - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent now says he cares about the "Iranian people"...

The new Friday action is perhaps the single biggest indicator that the United States is ready to abandon the MoU, and that it is already in effect crumbling and defunct, following a couple nights of major tit-for-tat attacks between the US, Iran, and involving strikes on Gulf countries by Iranian forces. But the bombs have stopped as of Thursday night through Friday.

There are a couple of key MoU points which deal with the question of sanctions on Iran during the negotiating process. Number seven of the 14-points reads as follows [emphasis by ZH]:

The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

And point number nine spells out no new sanctions:

Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

It is not only the ceasefire that's now effectively dead, but the MoU itself is clearly on life-support.

Both sides have already repeatedly accused the other of violating the terms of the MoU, but in many ways these new sanctions are confirmation that a 'new MoU' will have to be worked out, if there is a way forward.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 21:25

Self-Flagellation Nation

Zero Hedge -

Self-Flagellation Nation

Authored by Frank Filocomo via RealClearBooks,

You've probably heard the refrain before, but it bears repeating: The West is the best.

As I write this, it's nearly one hundred degrees Fahrenheit here in Brooklyn. Thank God for air conditioning.

The air conditioner, by the way, was invented by the New York-born Willis Carrier in the early part of the twentieth century. Willis was, without question, a product of Western Civilization.

Before the AC - which we, no doubt, take for granted nowadays - our ancestors, when faced with the dog days of summer, would have no choice but to sit on ice blocks, drink cold beverages, and fan themselves to stay cool.

Many non-Western countries still resort to these old methods.

The computer in which I am typing this article is also a product of Western innovation. After I finish writing this, I'll use it again later today to schedule a doctor's appointment, wherein I'll likely be prescribed Western medicine.

Okay, okay. What am I getting at here? Well, simply, I am proud to be a product and inhabitant of Western Civilization.

Not all, however, feel such gratitude.

In his latest book, Suicidal Empathy: Dying to Be Kind, Gad Saad documents the myriad ways in which Westerners today engage in ethno-masochism and self-flagellation.

"The suicidally empathetic person," Saad writes, "feels guilty that they were born in the West, whereas others were not as fortunate."

To be sure, we do indeed have it good here. And there's nothing wrong with having empathy for those who've never experienced Western living.

Under Maduro's rule in 2017, starving Venezuelans were literally stealing animals from the Zoo with the intention of eating them.

That's not a problem we have here in the West. It's natural to pity such people.

It is when our pity becomes excessive, to the point where we are hurting our own in the pursuit of altruistic ends, that we encounter civilizational decay.

While reading Saad's book, which relates dozens of stories of "privileged" white Westerners forgoing their own welfare to appear morally virtuous, I recollected the now-famous tiff between Trump advisor Stephen Miller and then-CNN journalist Jim Acosta, wherein Acosta basically argues that our immigration policy should be dictated by the Emma Lazarus poem tacked onto the Statue of Liberty.

"Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free..."

I don't know, Emma. I'm not sure that's always such a good idea.

As Saad rightly notes throughout the book, non-Western immigration has fundamentally altered the identities of many once-great European nations, rendering them nearly unrecognizable.

That Islamists come here with the intention of bringing with them their illiberal and theocratic cultural attitudes is of no concern to the wide-eyed liberal, who is more fearful of coming off as "Islamophobic" than they are of being sexually assaulted by Muslim grooming gangs.

"Suicidal empathy," Saad writes, "leads to caring more about the rights of rapists and felons than their victims."

Right-wing shock jock and host of Get Off My Lawn Gavin McInnes once quipped that the Left is so tolerant that they tolerate the intolerant.

Truer words have never been spoken.

Equipped with a sardonic wit, Saad plays the Left's language game. Just as we've been coached to say "undocumented immigrant" when referring to illegal aliens - the correct term - Saad, in a dark but humorous attempt to demonstrate his Suicidally Empathetic bona fides, refers to rapists as "undocumented lovemakers."

To be sure, some readers might find this dark humor to be flippant and distasteful. I'm a bit ambivalent about it myself. Still, the point holds: to the Suicidally Empathetic Left, it is more important to demonstrate tact and

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 20:50

China Shuts The Helium Valve As Qatar Outage Deepens Global Supply Squeeze

Zero Hedge -

China Shuts The Helium Valve As Qatar Outage Deepens Global Supply Squeeze

China has abruptly banned helium exports, a key component in semiconductors, which adds yet another serious constraint to a global market already reeling from the loss of production in Qatar.

In a two-sentence Friday announcement, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs said helium covered by customs code 2804290010 was subject to a temporary prohibition on exports, effective immediately. The agencies cited China's Foreign Trade Law but provided no explanation, expiration date, transition period or exemptions. Any future adjustments, they said, would be announced separately. See the official Chinese government announcement.

The decision is more restrictive than an export-licensing requirement. It appears to prevent covered shipments to all foreign destinations, regardless of buyer or intended use. The announcement does not explain how customs officials will treat previously signed contracts, cargo awaiting departure or helium originally imported into China and subsequently repackaged for re-export.

Nor does it carve out exceptions for hospitals, scientific laboratories, semiconductor manufacturers or humanitarian users.

The physical volume removed from the international market may be relatively small. China accounted for an average of 5 percent of U.S. helium imports between 2021 and 2024, compared with 47 percent from Canada, 28 percent from Qatar and 10 percent from Algeria, according to the U.S. Geological Survey's 2026 helium commodity summary - but the significance of the move lies in its timing.

China produces only a fraction of the helium it consumes and imports roughly 85 percent or more of its requirements, according to reporting by Reuters, with the Associated Press places China's domestic production at no more than ~ 15 percent of its needs. This suggests the ban is principally an effort to conserve helium for domestic industry rather than a measure capable, by itself, of depriving foreign buyers of large quantities. It also implies that Beijing expects the present shortage to persist.

Chinese companies have increasingly acted as intermediaries - importing some Russian helium and re-exporting volumes to overseas markets, including Europe. The ban could therefore remove more internationally traded material than China's domestic production figures alone would suggest.

Qatar Shock Ripples Through A Concentrated Market

The global helium market was already under severe pressure before China's announcement. Helium is generally recovered as a byproduct of natural-gas processing. When a large gas complex stops operating, helium production cannot simply continue independently. That vulnerability became evident after attacks forced QatarEnergy to stop production of liquefied natural gas and associated products at its Ras Laffan complex - causing them to subsequently declared force-majeure on affected contracts. 

Further missile attacks damaged LNG Trains 4 and 6. QatarEnergy said the damaged facilities could take between three and five years to repair and estimated that the attacks had removed 17 percent of Qatar's LNG export capacity. See the company's statement on the damage and repair timetable.

Qatar produced an estimated 63 million cubic meters of helium in 2025, close to one-third of estimated world production, according to the USGS. A disruption there is therefore a worldwide rather than regional problem.

Helium prices reacted quickly. Spot prices doubled after the Middle East conflict began, according to industry participants interviewed by Reuters. Some market specialists warned that an extended disruption could push prices toward levels last seen during previous severe shortages.

The problem is compounded by the peculiar logistics of the helium trade. Liquid helium must remain at extraordinarily low temperatures and gradually evaporates during transportation. One industry executive told Reuters that suppliers effectively have about 45 days to move liquefied helium to the end user.

Unlike oil, helium lacks a large and transparent spot market. Most volumes are sold under private, long-term contracts, making real-time prices difficult to observe. Supply stress often emerges through customer allocations, surcharges and force-majeure notices rather than through a widely quoted futures contract.

China's exposure to Qatar is not accidental. In February 2025, QatarEnergy signed a 20-year agreement to deliver 100 million cubic feet of high-purity helium annually to China. It was the first direct, long-term helium supply agreement between Qatar and a Chinese buyer. 

The new ban therefore raises an important question: Is China merely stopping helium produced domestically, or is it also preventing imported Qatari, Russian and other foreign-origin helium from being resold abroad? 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 20:15

When Billion-Dollar Non-Profits Stop Looking Like Charities

Zero Hedge -

When Billion-Dollar Non-Profits Stop Looking Like Charities

Authored by Jeff Patch via RealClearMarkets,

AltaMed Health Services reported $1.72 billion in revenue in 2024, which is more than many publicly traded healthcare companies. Yet unlike a public corporation, the nonprofit entity answers to no shareholders, enjoys broad tax exemptions, and derives much of its revenue from taxpayer-supported healthcare programs.

AltaMed also reported $1.66 billion in assets and its revenues exceeded expenses by $68.4 million. It operates more than 70 clinics, employs roughly 5,000 people, and serves more than 700,000 patients throughout Southern California, making it one of the nation's largest federally qualified health center (FQHC) systems.

But AltaMed's extraordinary growth raises another question that extends far beyond Southern California: What happens when a nonprofit grows into a multibillion-dollar enterprise while retaining the governance structure of a traditional charity?

That question has become increasingly relevant as individual nonprofit hospital systems, universities, and other charitable organizations now control hundreds of billions of dollars in assets while benefiting from tax exemptions, government reimbursements, tax-deductible donations, and public financing. Their primary accountability mechanism is a board of directors charged with ensuring that charitable resources remain devoted to public benefit rather than private profits.

Since 2001, AltaMed has paid more than $32 million in compensation to its CEO, Castulo de la Rocha, his wife Zoila Escobar, and one of their sons - which is significantly higher than most of its peer FQHCs. For instance, the chief executives of Family Health Centers of San Diego, Family HealthCare Network, and Comprehensive Community Health Centers each earned substantially less than de la Rocha in 2024 despite overseeing similarly large healthcare organizations.

Following scrutiny of excessive executive pay more than a decade ago, AltaMed adopted a split-dollar life insurance loan program designed to help retain selected executives. The program has provided substantial loans to a small group of senior leaders to finance life insurance policies. Split-dollar arrangements are technically legal, although federal officials have cautioned that similar structures have been used improperly in certain tax-avoidance schemes.

Executive compensation is only one measure of nonprofit governance. Equally important is how charitable organizations deploy their resources and whether those expenditures advance the mission for which they receive tax-exempt status.

Over the past two decades, AltaMed has built one of the country's most prominent collections of Chicano and Latino art. It says the collection supports its "Art as a Holistic Approach to Healthcare" initiative, and that artwork displayed throughout its clinics creates a more welcoming and therapeutic environment for patients.

However, AltaMed's involvement in the arts extends far beyond decorating clinic walls - it owns a collection of approximately 4,000 works of Chicano, Mexican, and Latin American art, the value of which exceeds $6 million. It has spent as much as $2 million on art-related activities outside the United States in places like Mexico City, Rome, Berlin, and Madrid. More recently, it has supported plans for a Museum of Chicano and Mexican Art in downtown Los Angeles, spending at least $150,000 on lobbying related to the proposal.

The organization has unquestionably expanded access to healthcare for hundreds of thousands of Californians. But AltaMed's growing role as an arts patron raises legitimate questions about how closely those activities are connected to its charitable healthcare mission.

That is a challenge that extends well beyond AltaMed. Nonprofit executives regularly oversee budgets larger than many cities, yet they remain governed by rules and oversight mechanisms developed for a much smaller nonprofit sector.

Congress created the tax-exempt status because charitable organizations provide public benefits that markets alone may not deliver. That public trust depends on confidence that charitable assets are being used primarily to advance charitable purposes, and not the financial interests of insiders. As nonprofits continue to grow in both size and complexity, policymakers should ask whether the accountability standards governing billion-dollar charities have kept pace with the institutions they now oversee.

Jeff Patch is an Iowa-based writer focused on legal, regulatory and political challenges that impact businesses and markets. Patch is a former Des Moines Register correspondent and Politico staff writer.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 19:45

Turkey Seeks Moscow Permission To Offload S-400s, Paving Way For US F-35 Deal

Zero Hedge -

Turkey Seeks Moscow Permission To Offload S-400s, Paving Way For US F-35 Deal

In a move that could break a years-long defense procurement deadlock with Washington, Turkey is finalizing the sale of its Russian S-400 air defense systems to Gulf states, potentially clearing the way for Ankara to buy US F-35 fighter jets, Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reports Friday.

For Ankara, offloading the Russian hardware resolves a years-long costly diplomatic and military bottleneck and controversy - a situation which dramatically improved after President Trump gave a clear greenlight during the annual NATO summit in Ankara this week.

But apparently it needs Moscow's formal permission before doing this, as Bloomberg reports, "Turkey is seeking Russia's consent to transfer air defense systems it bought from Moscow to a third country, an effort aimed at clearing the way for the purchase of US-made F-35 fighter jets."

via Reuters

"Ankara made the approach in recent weeks, just months after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed returning the S-400 missile systems to Russia — an idea that gained little traction, said Turkish officials, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private," the report continues.

When asked by reporters whether he would lift legal restrictions on the transfer of the stealth fighter jet to Turkey, Trump responded, "We have a better relationship with Turkey, and Turkey has been in many ways much more loyal than other countries that we think would be loyal. And certainly something we will consider - yeah."

By disposing of the Russian equipment, Ankara is resuming talks on F-35 fighter jets and securing supplies of critical engine components for its own KAAN combat aircraft program, Hurriyet wrote further.

"Hopefully, when the F-35s are delivered to Turkey, the whole world will say America kept its promise," Erdogan said at a Wednesday closing news conference for the NATO summit.

Dumping its Russian S-400s could allow Turkey's government to be released from US sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA.

However, this would have to get past Congress first. The law, adopted in 2017, requires the US government to impose strict economic and political restrictions primarily on Russia, Iran and North Korea. But Turkey was subsequently hit by these sanctions after purchasing S-400 air defense systems from Russia in a deal signed in September 2017, with deliveries having begun in July 2019.

The big fear over NATO-member Turkey having the S-400 systems and F-35s at the same time was that secret technology critical to the American fighter jet would be compromised. Possessing the S-400s requires Russian advisory guidance and know-how. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 19:20

Advanced US Nuclear Battery Deal Targets 3000 MW Power With $22.5 Billion Pipeline

Zero Hedge -

Advanced US Nuclear Battery Deal Targets 3000 MW Power With $22.5 Billion Pipeline

Authored by Aman Tripathi via Interesting Engineering,

Energy project facilitator GridMarket and nuclear technology developer Deployable Energy have formed a commercial agreement to deploy modular microreactors across the United States. The 40-year contract carries an estimated total value of $145 billion.

The collaboration follows a recent successful operational test by Deployable Energy.Deployable Energy 

The initiative intends to install more than 3 gigawatts (GW) of electrical capacity by 2035, focusing primarily on data centers, cloud infrastructure facilities, and industrial manufacturing plants.

"Demand for dependable, continuous power is growing faster than traditional infrastructure can support," said Bobby Gallagher, Co-Founder and CEO at Deployable Energy.

The collaboration follows a successful operational test by Deployable Energy. The company recently achieved criticality with its prototype system, known as the Unity Nuclear Battery. This initial test reactor reached a self-sustaining nuclear reaction 150 days after the project began.

Speeding up domestic nuclear power deployment

The development occurred under the US Department of Energy's Nuclear Energy Launch Pad program, which operates in accordance with a federal executive order designed to speed up domestic nuclear power deployment.

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence applications and cloud computing infrastructure has created an unprecedented demand for baseload electrical power. Finding locations with sufficient grid capacity has become a primary obstacle for technology companies building new facility hubs.

Under the new agreement, GridMarket will use its database of evaluated commercial sites and current corporate clients to establish a pipeline for the new power systems.

The companies plan to install 500 megawatts (MW) of power capacity annually between 2030 and 2035. According to GridMarket executives, corporate clients are actively looking for alternatives to traditional electrical grid connections because standard power infrastructure cannot keep pace with the power requirements of modern computing facilities.

To shorten construction timelines

The Unity system differs from conventional utility infrastructure because it is manufactured in components at a factory rather than built entirely on-site. This modular design is intended to shorten construction timelines and allow installation directly at the site of demand, bypassing local electrical transmission bottlenecks. The microreactor operates as a combined utility system.

"Unlike the power and cooling systems running today's data centers, the Unity Nuclear Battery delivers electricity, heat, and cooling in a single system - dramatically reducing the water intensity that has strained local communities hosting large-scale compute infrastructure," said GridMarket in a press release.

The immediate priority for the two entities involves selecting a host location for a physical pilot installation. This initial project will serve to verify the technology under real-world operating conditions before beginning wider commercial production. Deployable Energy has committed to giving GridMarket's client base priority scheduling for subsequent reactor deliveries.

Corporate leadership from Deployable Energy noted that current infrastructure cannot support the growth rate of digital data systems. The companies intend to publish specific details regarding the pilot site selection, regulatory approval tracking, and the initial group of commercial participants as the engineering program moves closer to the manufacturing phase.

"We believe advanced nuclear technology can become an important part of the energy mix supporting the next generation of digital and energy infrastructure," concluded Bobby Gallagher, Co-Founder and CEO at Deployable Energy.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 18:55

Trump Left Orders To Obliterate Iran If Assassinated: 'Bomb Them At Levels Never Seen Before'

Zero Hedge -

Trump Left Orders To Obliterate Iran If Assassinated: 'Bomb Them At Levels Never Seen Before'

The Iran war saga has seen its fair share of bizarre and wild twists, and Friday has brought yet another - with the NY Post reporting that President Trump said he "left instructions" for a massive bombing campaign against Iran in the event he's assassinated by Iranian operatives.

"I’ve been on their list for a long time. That’s what we’re dealing with," he told New York Post. Then he followed with: "The only thing is, I've left instructions - if anything happens, to just literally bomb them at levels that they've never seen before."

The provocative comment, which has unleashed a flurry of commentary and memes on social media, comes on the heels of Trump stating while at the NATO summit in Turkey this week that the Iranians were seeking to kill him.

He had quipped while in Turkey, "And so far, I guess I’ve been a little bit lucky, but that maybe doesn’t last very long."

It seems Israel has been seizing on the opportunity for escalation of the crisis, given its leaders have made no secret of being deeply dissatisfied with the terms of the MoU.

Just as Tehran and Washington stand on the brink of returning once again to full-scale war, The Wall Street Journal reported the following late Thursday:

Israel shared new intelligence with the U.S. that it said indicated a fresh Iranian plan to kill President Trump, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that would mark an escalation in the war between Washington and Iran.

But then in the latest NY Post interview, Trump seemed to downplay if not outright deny the Israeli intelligence. He said instead, "No, no. Israel came up with nothing. No, no." He then clarified that these are old and persisting, vague threats: "I've been No. 1 [on Iran’s kill list] for a long time, and it’s the way life is, you know," he said, before adding, "I hope you'll miss me." From the NY Post in fuller context:

Asked about recent reports that Israel this week flagged intel of a plot to take out the US president, Trump indicated there was no fresh plan from Iran — but said Tehran has wanted him dead for years.

“No, no. Israel came up with nothing. No, no,” he said. “I’ve been No. 1 [on Iran’s kill list] for a long time, and it’s the way life is, you know.”

As for leaving "instructions" for the US government to bomb Iran "at levels that they've never seen before"... it seems that in Trump's mind the Executive is some kind of hereditary office, as if a 'last will and testament' can be acted upon in the name of the United States merely because a prior president instructed that's what he personally wants to see done.

The interview also highlights how far away we've come from the Constitutional principle of the presidency seeking Congressional approval - or even so much as notifying congressional members - of plans to start major wars.

But it remains that the media will eat it up, and web traffic and clicks will be generated, fearmongering over Iran will increase, and perhaps that's what it's all about. The threat has to always be inflated at peak levels, especially in the middle of a hot conflict in the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 18:30

Russia's New Bullets Disintegrate Into 3 Mid-Flight, Can Hit High-Speed Drones

Zero Hedge -

Russia's New Bullets Disintegrate Into 3 Mid-Flight, Can Hit High-Speed Drones

Authored by Prabhat Ranjan Mishra via Interesting Engineering,

A Russian company has developed a new type of rifle bullets that split into three mid-flight, according to reports. This can help increase hit probability against high-speed drones.

The development of specialized anti-drone ammunition reflects the changing nature of warfare. (Representational image) Jay_Rembert/stevepb

Developed by Russia's Rostec, these multi-bullet "Mnogotochie" rounds can successfully hit drones. Reports have claimed that the first batches of these bullets have been delivered to Russian troops.

Effective option for combating drones

Vysokotochka, a subsidiary of Rostec, has developed "Mnogotochie". These bullets reportedly offer high-density fire for combating drones.

Bekkhan Ozdoyev, industrial director of Rostec's Armament Cluster, had earlier revealed that the Mnogotochie cartridges for rifled automatic weapons provide an effective option for combating drones. These are essentially standard 5.45x39mm and 7.62x39mm cartridges, but with a special bullet that splits into three parts upon exiting the barrel. This provides high-density fire. This means that shooting down a small drone with three bullets at once is much easier than with one.

Rostech previously also revealed that the 5.45x39mm caliber CT 226 and 7.62x54mm caliber CT 228 cartridges contain a three-element bullet that disintegrates in flight.

Standard cartridge case and standard propellant powder are used

The standard cartridge case and standard propellant powder are used, which simplifies serial production of the Mnogotochie at ammunition industry enterprises. Thanks to the design, all three elements are evenly separated upon exiting the barrel, improving firing accuracy and substantially increasing the probability of hitting small targets, reported TASS.

Earlier, Rostec also highlighted that small arms' performance characteristics remain unchanged when using the Mnogotochie, eliminating the need for modifications or installation of attachments. The cartridge can also be fired with a silencer installed.

Footage released by the company shows the 5.45mm variant downing a drone hovering about 10 meters (33 feet) above the ground from a distance of 100 meters (328 feet) after four shots. Full-scale production is underway, with the first batch already delivered to the Russian military. The Mnogotochie's three-piece nose separates after leaving the barrel, creating a controlled spread that allows a single shot to release three projectiles, reported NexGen Defense.

Reports indicate that the anti-drone round is effective at distances of up to 300 meters. While that range is relatively limited compared to dedicated air-defense systems, it is intended for situations where troops need to defend themselves against drones flying close to the battlefield.

Small commercial and military drones have become increasingly common in recent conflicts, performing reconnaissance, surveillance, and precision attack missions. Their relatively low cost and widespread availability have created new challenges for conventional military forces, driving demand for affordable countermeasures.

The development of specialized anti-drone ammunition reflects the changing nature of warfare, where inexpensive UAVs have become an important part of combat operations. Instead of relying solely on costly missile-based air-defense systems, militaries are exploring solutions that allow frontline troops to engage drones using standard firearms equipped with purpose-built ammunition.

If the new ammunition performs as intended in operational conditions, it could provide infantry units with an additional layer of defense against low-flying drones while complementing larger air-defense systems.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 18:05

Netflix's Live TV Pivot Exposes Growing Engagement Crisis As Shares Falter

Zero Hedge -

Netflix's Live TV Pivot Exposes Growing Engagement Crisis As Shares Falter

Netflix shares are teetering on the edge of a bear market after a brutal stretch of underperformance and one of the stock's worst first-half starts in two decades. Subscriber engagement has become an increasing concern for the streaming giant, and a new report suggests management may be considering a risky pivot toward live television to revive viewing time and strengthen its advertising business.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Netflix management is weighing live channels, third-party streaming bundles, and additional sports rights as it seeks to reverse declining subscriber engagement.

Here's more from the report:

To bolster engagement, executives at the company have recently discussed adding live channels that would continuously stream certain programs, or shows and films from a certain genre, according to people familiar with the matter. The company has also explored bundling other subscription-based streaming services, including NBCUniversal's Peacock, into its offering. It would sell those subscriptions through its main app as rivals such as Amazon.com and Apple have long done, some of the people said.

Netflix's discussions about adding TV channels and potentially streaming bundles, which would appear like tiles on the streamer's home page, show how the company is willing to pivot from its roots.

The pivot comes as audience measurement firm Nielsen reports that Netflix's share of TV viewership fell to 7.8% in April, its lowest level since May 2025.

Netflix's share of streaming time has also declined, falling from 21% to 17% over the two-year period ending in March 2026 amid intense competition from rival platforms such as Disney+ and YouTube TV.

Here is what Wall Street desks are saying, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Geetha Ranganathan

  • The plans are "likely to reignite focus on engagement, a key driver of advertising and long-term revenue growth"
  • "The strategy makes sense given the launch of French broadcaster TF1's linear channels, which lifted viewing by 16% in three weeks"

Citizens analyst Matthew Condon

  • If engagement slows and churn begins to rise, the core structural advantage begins to erode
  • "This is ultimately what is prompting Netflix to explore Live TV and subscription bundle partnerships"

Vital Knowledge

  • Netflix is facing a dip in subscriber engagement amid rising competition, which is a worrying trend

While Netflix remains the top streaming leader, its shares have nearly been halved since peaking in mid-2025.

Shares so far this year are teetering on the edge of a bear market, with first-half performance among the worst in two decades.

The underperformance in the stock comes not just from the subscriber engagement crisis but also from the company's disappointing guidance for the second quarter, including lower year-over-year operating margins.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 17:40

The Token Revolt Goes Mainstream: Palo Alto CEO Demands 90% AI Price Drop

Zero Hedge -

The Token Revolt Goes Mainstream: Palo Alto CEO Demands 90% AI Price Drop

Eight days ago it was Palantir's Alex Karp going ballistic on live television about the "effing insane" economics of renting intelligence by the token. On Thursday it was Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora's turn, and while his delivery was calmer, his number was not: Arora told CNBC that AI token prices need to fall as much as 90% before enterprise adoption can actually scale.

So the chief executive of one of the largest cybersecurity companies in the world - that buys this stuff at industrial scale - telling the frontier labs, on their favorite network, that their pricing model is broken by roughly an order of magnitude.

90% Or Bust

Arora wants token costs at roughly one-fifth of current levels within the next 12 months, and down 90% by the year after that. Arora joins a growing list of executives - Karp most loudly among them - calling out runaway token costs, and that the bill shock is already pushing corporate buyers toward cheaper open-weight alternatives, including Chinese models that are rapidly closing the capability gap with the American labs. Regular readers will recognize that migration: we have documented Coinbase cutting its internal AI spend nearly in half by defaulting engineers to Chinese open-weight models, Microsoft weighing a hosted DeepSeek variant for its own agentic tools, and OpenRouter data showing Chinese models capturing - in some periods - north of 60% of global token consumption among top models.

Altman Blinks First

The timing was not accidental. Arora's comments landed the same day OpenAI shipped its new GPT-5.6 family, with Sam Altman telling CNBC the latest model is 54% more token-efficient on agentic coding - a spec sheet line that doubles as a confession about what customers have been screaming at him for months. Asked about it, Arora offered the faintest of praise, calling the efficiency gain a good start before adding: "I think we probably need another turn at it."

Translation: nice 54%, now do it again. Twice.

None of this should surprise regular readers, who know OpenAI has been weighing drastic price cuts to claw enterprise customers back from Anthropic - the start of a classical deflationary race to the bottom - the opposite of what an industry burning tens of billions a year, and hoping to grow into trillion-dollar public valuations, actually needs. Altman himself conceded in June that cost had gone from a non-issue to a major one for customers. A month later, the "drastic cuts" are arriving dressed up as efficiency gains.

Meta Rising?

Also on Thursday, Meta launched Muse Spark 1.1, its first serious run at the agentic coding market that made Claude Code a phenomenon. Per Reuters figures cited by TechCrunch, Meta is charging $1.25 per million input tokens and $4.25 per million output tokens - parked right alongside the budget tiers of its rivals, Anthropic's Claude Haiku 4.5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Luna. Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang described the pricing as "very aggressive and attractive," and every new API account starts with $20 in free credits.

The launch was apparently important enough that Mark Zuckerberg posted on X for the first time in three years - his last post came in July 2023 - to pitch Spark as "a strong agentic and coding model at a very low price." Read that again: the CEO of a company spending well north of $100 billion a year on AI infrastructure, a company Wall Street is openly pressing for evidence of AI returns, broke a three-year social media silence to advertise that his product is cheap.

Meta also shipped its Muse Image generation model Tuesday, SpaceXAI dropped a new Grok, and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family all landed inside the same 48 hours. 

The Math Has Not Changed

Arora's admission is the latest wake-up call - from the tokenmaxxing fiasco and the $500 million mystery Claude bill, to Uber capping AI coding spend after torching its 2026 agentic budget in four months, to UBS checks finding token costs are now a live issue for roughly 60% of enterprise customers - including one that got its first AI invoice and heard leadership respond, flatly, "we don't have the money for this."

And we aren't the only ones concerned about how this will go... As JPMorgan noted one month ago: falling prices do not automatically fix the customer's problem, but they absolutely wreck the seller's. Gartner's own work suggests that even a 90% collapse in inference costs may not shrink enterprise AI bills, because agentic consumption grows faster than prices fall and providers do not pass the savings through. Meanwhile Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok has laid out the mirror-image problem: if token prices converge toward zero, there is not enough revenue to support the hyperscaler buildout even in a world where compute demand keeps surging. Arora's 90% is the customer's survival number. It may also be the vendor's extinction number.

Meanwhile, the buildout is not slowing down to wait for the answer. Amazon raised $25 billion in debt this week to fund AI infrastructure, a month after SpaceX's $25 billion bond sale - while this very morning, SK Hynix pulled off the largest US listing ever by a foreign company, a $26.5 billion raise that saw its ADRs open 14% above the offer price. The pattern could not be cleaner: the companies selling the shovels are booking record raises at record valuations, on the same tape where the companies selling the tokens are being told to cut prices 90%.

All of which lands at a delicate moment for the two firms the price war is actually about. OpenAI has already pushed its IPO into 2027, and Anthropic's headline $47 billion ARR - a figure we treated with some skepticism when it was paraded ahead of the IPO filing - now faces its first print in a world where the customers have read their invoices and the competition includes Meta at $1.25 per million tokens.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 16:50

Apple Sues OpenAI Alleging Trade Secret Theft In Blockbuster AI Hardware Case

Zero Hedge -

Apple Sues OpenAI Alleging Trade Secret Theft In Blockbuster AI Hardware Case

Apple has filed a major lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California accusing OpenAI, io Products, and former Apple executives of misappropriating trade secrets to fast-track AI hardware development.

The complaint details a months-long scheme involving former Apple employees now at OpenAI. Key defendants include Tang Tan (OpenAI hardware lead and ex-Apple VP of product design) and Chang Liu (former Apple senior electrical engineer). Apple alleges they directed recruits to share confidential details on unreleased devices, components, manufacturing processes, and suppliers.

Specific claims, according to the WSJ, include Tan instructing interviewees to bring physical Apple hardware parts for review, retaining and distributing an internal Apple "Need to Know" departure security document, and using stolen supplier information to trick partners into using proprietary techniques. Liu is accused of downloading over a thousand pages of confidential files post-departure via a retained laptop and maintaining improper contacts at Apple for ongoing updates. (MacRumors)

“This case is about Apple’s former employees stealing Apple’s trade secrets for the benefit of OpenAI. Apple brings this suit to put a stop to it.”

Apple describes the conduct as “the tip of the iceberg” and states that OpenAI’s hardware efforts are “rotten to its core” due to reliance on misappropriated information. The company first contacted OpenAI in February with concerns but received no response. (9to5Mac)

In a response to inquiry by MacRumors, Apple said: 

“At Apple, our teams are constantly developing breakthrough technologies to create the best products and services in the world, and protecting their work and intellectual property is something we take very seriously. Recently, significant evidence has emerged suggesting individuals employed by OpenAI wrongfully took Apple’s secret and confidential information regarding our unreleased technologies, processes, and products. We will always defend our teams’ hard work and innovations, and we are taking all appropriate steps to do so.”

Apple seeks an injunction barring use or disclosure of the information, plus damages. The suit targets Tan and Liu for breach of contract but does not name Jony Ive or Sam Altman. It notes the Siri/ChatGPT partnership is not at issue and highlights that over 400 ex-Apple employees now work at OpenAI. 

This development occurs amid previously reported tensions, with OpenAI reportedly considering its own legal action against Apple over integration expectations. OpenAI is advancing hardware projects, including potential devices tied to its acquisition of Ive’s io startup. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 16:39

Myth Busted: U.S. Much Safer Than Many Peer Nations

Zero Hedge -

Myth Busted: U.S. Much Safer Than Many Peer Nations

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearInvestigations,

Conventional wisdom holds that the United States is the most violent and dangerous nation in the developed world. This dark view is frequently invoked by conservatives to demand stronger penalties for crimes and by progressives to argue for stronger gun laws.

At the same time, other nations point to crime as an Achilles heel of the American system. These include two peer nations with some of the most restrictive gun laws in the world - Australia and Canada. In 2025, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that "the U.S. generally sees higher violent crime rates than many other countries." Last year, the Canadian Press similarly reported that "the number of police-reported violent crimes for every 100,000 people continue to be higher in the United States than in Canada."

The data, however, undercuts this narrative. While the United States still leads in some categories, on the whole it has significantly less violent crime per capita than those two nations.

Regarding homicide, the most heinous crime of all, it's true that in 2025, the U.S. murder rate was about four per 100,000 people - roughly twice Australia's and Canada's 2024 homicide rate. Yet it's also true that homicides account for only a tiny fraction of violent crime. In 2024, homicides represented just 0.21% of violent crimes in the U.S., based on National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimates of rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Murder comprises an even smaller fraction of crimes in Australia and Canada.

Murders in the U.S. are usually highly concentrated geographically, often connected to street gang activity, and threaten only a tiny fraction of Americans. Just 2% of counties account for approximately 54% of all murders, and within those counties roughly two-thirds of killings occur within areas covering only about ten city blocks. By contrast, 53% of U.S. counties report no murders in a typical year, while another 16% report only one.

Moreover, when analyzing the incidence of a broader set of crimes, the U.S. is nowhere near the most dangerous developed country.

Ignoring Police

Because police statistics capture only a fraction of actual crime, the U.S., Canada, and Australia all conduct large-scale victimization surveys that estimate total crime, including incidents never reported to police. The Bureau of Justice Statistics has conducted the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which interviews roughly 240,000 Americans annually, for more than 50 years. Australia relies on a comparable survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, while Statistics Canada conducts the General Social Survey (GSS) on Safety and Victimization.

"Anyone who wants to understand the seriousness of crime in Canada needs to recognize that victimization surveys paint a more complete picture than police-reported crime," said Gary Mauser, who has extensively studied crime at Simon Fraser University in Canada.

The gap between police statistics and actual victimization is substantial. In Canada, the police-reported violent-crime rate is 885 per 100,000 people. The GSS reported a violent victimization rate almost 10 times that - 8,300 per 100,000.

Australia shows a similar pattern. Although the state of Victoria did not provide assault data to the ABS, only about 37% of robberies and sexual assaults were reported to police in 2024.

The U.S. data tell a very different story. Although the FBI does not collect national counts of simple assault, it recorded 1,203,808 violent crimes in 2019. During the same year, the NCVS estimated 2,013,220 felonious violent crimes - rape or sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault, excluding simple assault. Police reports therefore captured 59.8% of the NCVS estimate.

Using these broad estimates, Australia's rape and sexual assault rate is roughly three times higher than that of the United States. Australia's assault rate is about twice as high, and its burglary rate is about 2.5 times higher. Robbery is the only category where the two countries report similar rates.

But even this Australian data significantly understates the extent of violent crime because it counts victims rather than the number of crimes, unlike the U.S. data. If someone is robbed or sexually assaulted twice, the Australian survey records only one victimization, while the U.S. counts two separate crimes. As a result, Australia's survey misses repeat victimizations and understates the total amount of violent crime. Even modest adjustments suggest that Australia's violent crime rate is 15% higher than already discussed.

"For decades, researchers have documented that people report crimes more often when law enforcement is more likely to catch and punish the offenders," said David Mustard, a professor and crime expert at the University of Georgia. "The extremely low reporting rates in Australia and Canada therefore raise serious doubts about public confidence in their criminal justice systems."

Normalizing Rape

For example, in Canada in 2019, about 8.1% of total violent crimes resulted in the person being arrested and charged with the crime (210,000 arrested and charged out of 2.59 million victimizations), which is quite low even compared to the 20% rate in the U.S.

In Australia, there are numerous complaints that "Rape is effectively decriminalized." In New South Wales, of the 9,138 sexual assaults reported to police in 2022, there were only 1,016 convictions - just an 11% conviction rate. Indeed, during a recent lecture that I gave to college students in New South Wales in February, several women said there was no reason to report rapes and sexual assaults to the police because they believed nothing would happen to the criminal and it was personally embarrassing to come forward publicly.

As a result, an analysis based solely on police statistics can be misleading when comparing countries. Victimization surveys tell a different story. Although direct comparisons require some caution because the Canadian GSS and the U.S. NCVS define certain crimes like sexual assault differently, those differences generally favor Canada and make the U.S. appear relatively more violent.

Still, the results remain striking. In 2019, Canada's overall violent-crime victimization rate was at least 175% higher than the U.S. after adjusting for different methods. "Anyone who wants to understand just how serious crime is in Canada needs to recognize that crime rates are higher in Canada than in the U.S., according to victimization surveys," Mauser said.

Robbery offers an especially useful comparison because both surveys define it similarly. Canada's robbery victimization rate was 268% higher than the U.S. rate. Property crime follows a similar pattern. Canada's burglary rate was 259% higher than the U.S. rate.

Nor is this pattern unique to recent years. The International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS), which used identical questions and definitions across participating countries before the United Nations assumed responsibility for the survey and later discontinued it, reached similar conclusions. In 2000, Australia's violent-crime victimization rate - including robbery, sexual incidents, assaults, and threats - was 104% higher than the U.S. rate. Robbery was 150% higher and sexual assaults 167.9% higher. The survey also found Canada's violent-crime victimization rate to be 40% higher than the U.S.

Few countries conduct victimization surveys, but the historical evidence from older ICVS data paints a similar picture. The ICVS found that England and Wales and Scotland had violent crime rates about 40% higher than the United States, while Finland's rate was about 20% higher. France, the Netherlands, and Sweden recorded rates roughly equal to the U.S., whereas Belgium and Poland experienced violent crime rates about 20% lower.

"The media's emphasis on reported crime badly underestimates how bad the violent crime situation in Australia is compared to the U.S.," Dr. Kesten C. Green, who has studied crime and is a researcher at the University of Adelaide Business School, tells RealClearInvestigations.

"Only victimization surveys capture both reported and unreported crimes, providing a far more complete picture

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 16:25

When Uncle Sam Turns Venture Capitalist, What Could Go Wrong?

Zero Hedge -

When Uncle Sam Turns Venture Capitalist, What Could Go Wrong?

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

The battery recycler Ascend Elements was riding high in 2023, flush with hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding.

The seed money provided to the Massachusetts company, which launched in 2017, was one of several large bets the Biden administration placed on the green future as it essentially created a venture capital arm at the Department of Energy and other agencies. In the movies, VCs almost always score big through their early investments in future behemoths (e.g., PayPal or Meta when it was Facebook). In real life, those jackpots are the exception, not the rule - many of the deals go south.

Alas, Washington isn't Hollywood, and the government isn't spending celluloid dollars. In April, Ascend Elements filed for bankruptcy, leaving U.S. taxpayers out nearly $320 million.

Government funding of private companies is receiving new scrutiny as the Trump administration is upping the ante on such efforts by demanding that the feds receive an equity stake for their largesse. While this approach is leading the government into uncharted waters, experts say the operative concept - using taxpayer money to make risky bets on private companies - has a long and troubled history. The bankruptcy of Solyndra, a maker of niche solar panels the Obama administration had given $535 million in 2009, became shorthand for the problems that occur when government tries to pick winners and losers in the marketplace.

"It generally doesn't work," said Steven Neil Kaplan, a professor of entrepreneurship and innovation at the University of Chicago's Booth business school. "There are three problems with it, namely that the government doesn't usually have the best information; two, it's going to be political; and three, the incentives aren't in place to pay for performance."

It is still too early to assess the Trump administration's investments in private corporations, but the hundreds of billions of dollars shoveled out the door by the Biden administration through the Investment Infrastructure and Jobs Act provide some insight into the challenges the government faces when it turns into a venture capitalist. RealClearInvestigations' review of one sliver of that spending - $1.68 billion in grants awarded in 2023 under the umbrella of "Energy, Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Energy Programs, Energy" - demonstrates how difficult it can be to follow the money and assess the impact when taxpayer funds are doled out to private corporations.

Foreign Assets

The grants reviewed by RCI all went to companies involved in the electric vehicle battery market, either in terms of making the batteries themselves or generating the various elements that comprise an EV battery. Unlike the billions doled out by Biden's EPA through its Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund - which made the regulatory agency a large grant maker for the first time - these Energy Department deals went to existing for-profit companies rather than startups or newly formed nonprofit organizations. RCI's analysis of the DOE grants did not find any of the glaring political connections it uncovered in the EPA disbursements.

Ascend Elements marked the biggest taxpayer bet within that package, but there were several others of $100 million or more, according to the Treasury Department's usaspending.gov. The grants represent venture capital-like moves by the Biden administration to jumpstart and expand renewable energy initiatives in the name of fighting global warming.

Although taxpayer money is presumably spent in accordance with the government's enumerated duties and to benefit Americans, some of the large grants went to companies that are enjoying more support abroad than at home.

For example, Synesqo Specialty Polymers USA, a branch of a Belgian company traded on European exchanges, received $178.2 million. Mike Finelli, Syensqo's chief technology and innovation officer, highlighted the company's moves in Europe rather than the U.S. in his response to RCI.

"Syensqo has recently launched a new company in Europe to help scale up commercial demonstration of advanced materials for solid-state batteries in Europe," he said. "In the U.S., although the policy and cost environment is supportive, market growth is evolving at a measured pace. ... Importantly, the U.S. Department of Energy grant awarded in 2023 remains active, with discussions ongoing, and we continue to serve the market from our existing production in France."

Similarly, $100 million went to Group 14, a private company in Washington state that is "building the world's largest factory for advanced silicon battery material."

The company, which says it has raised roughly $1 billion for the Washington facility it hopes to open this year, acquired an ownership stake in a South Korea factory last year.

Group 14 did respond to a request for comment.

Critics of directing government funds to private companies say it can also be difficult to assess the impact of the grants - and how the money was spent - because corporations are not obligated to answer the public's questions about their businesses. While the taxpayers may have provided a substantial chunk of these companies' financing, they are responsible to their shareholders, not taxpayers.

The "Market Test"

Walter Block, an economist on the faculty of Loyola University in New Orleans, said the Energy Department's 2023 grants also raised related questions about whether taxpayers are bankrolling companies that have not yet passed "the market test."

"The government shouldn't be involved in any of that," said Block, a proponent of the Austrian school of economics, which prioritizes free-market principles. "Taxpayers have a right to ask how and why these things were done if the company isn't viable in the market."

Final grades on some of the outstanding grants can be difficult to judge when, as is the case with several of these grants, the recipients are private companies. Synesqo, however, is traded on European markets. When it received a large injection of federal cash in 2023, its stock traded near $95 per share, but its value has since declined by nearly 30%.

And to Kaplan's point about who is making the grant decisions, that remains a mystery. Although Energy Secretary Chris Wright has trumpeted the cancellation of various Biden-era deals, the department did not respond to RCI's multiple requests for comment. Synesqo was the only company to respond to questions.

The hope that the government, with its vast resources, can goose innovation is not new. The U.S. government's longstanding support for basic research has led to many medical and technological breakthroughs, including radar and the Internet.

Many of those achievements, however, have come through more traditional grants to America's great research universities, and a separate batch of such grants was also part of Biden's green energy spending. Governments at all levels have also sought to spur business development and innovation by offering tax incentives, though usually with mixed results.

Venture capital, essentially seed money, is different and unlike more familiar government contracts, such as those for defense contracts or highways and roads. Those arrangements carry their own ethical temptations, ranging from pay-to-play schemes to overt political support, that have made politics infamous, from Tammany Hall to modern-day Chicago or Louisiana. It is those sorts of alleged insider deals that were leveled against the Biden family and now against President Trump and his offspring.

Necessary Investments

Still, not everyone is opposed to the government making admittedly risky bets. Some consulting companies actually pitch businesses on considering federal sources for venture capital.

Fred Block, a sociology professor at the University of California, Davis, whose work has been applied to venture capital models, notes that some level of success has been achieved by the Small Business Administration's Small Business Innovation Research Program.

In addition, a 2006 study by Block and some colleagues on 100 "winners" picked by the trade publication Research & Development showed that at some point in their development, federal money had assisted 88 of them.

"The key point is the necessity of government involvement with cutting-edge projects," Block told RCI. He noted how private research entities like RCA's once-fabled Sarnoff Corporation are no longer around.

"You have to have collaboration between different kinds of specialists and no private company can afford to have all those people on staff," he said.

Kaplan had also cited the SBA loans as a case where government venture money often bears fruit, but those are much smaller investments and must adhere to strict guidelines. And unlike the Energy Department grants under Biden or some of the moves made by the Trump administration, SBA decisions are made by teams of professionals rather than an anonymous federal apparatus. Again, the issue comes back to the quality of information available and who makes the calls.

"They've developed the expertise," UC Davis's Block said. "Now that appears to be gone. Who knows who or how decisions are being made now? Maybe Trump makes them in the middle of the night."

Big Money for Recipients

While none of the individual deals stand out in terms of the federal government's enormous spending, they often represent big money for individual recipients: The $82 million that went to Cirba Solutions, a battery recycling outfit in Charlotte, N.C., for instance, amounted to nearly twice the company's estimated annual revenue of $39.5 million.

That sort of proportion also shows how these Department of Energy grants are different from similar big economic moves Washington has made, such as propping up the savings and loan and auto industries, or trying to keep markets solvent.

Critics of both the gigantic spending on green energy specifically, and the effort to wrench the American economy away from the fossil fuels that power most of it, warned that more Solyndras are possible.

"What's the point of Congress authorizing billions of spending with almost no oversight?" asked Daniel Turner, the executive director of Power The Future, a conservative group concentrating on rural power. "Of course we should be concerned about what might happen. It's absurd to have funneled so much money to green technology companies without market approval."

Yet even in proven markets, the risks inherent in the government taking huge stakes in companies are problematic.

"When there's so much money involved, are there conditions?" asked Thomas Pyle, president of the American Energy Alliance, which does not accept government donations. "There's something very pernicious, very suspect about the idea of the government being venture capitalists, and there's so much more at stake when it's taxpayer dollars involved."

There is also the possibility that a company backed by federal money makes it big, in which case new questions arise about equity, how the government may define success as venture capitalists, and whether the government may try to become an active investor, looking to influence personnel and other decisions at the company. Those factors are on top of the hoary conflicts of interest that have long bedeviled government moves.

Those questions are likely to multiply in the coming years as both parties seem more open to the government owning stock in private companies. The Trump administration has already received billions of dollars in equity stakes for money funneled to private companies (mostly tied to national security), and Sen. Bernie Sanders has introduced legislation that could give the U.S. a 50% ownership of the largest AI companies. Neither the Trump administration nor Sanders' office responded to requests for comment.

Kaplan outlined some steps the government could take to improve the process, such as only backing companies that have already passed "the market test" or shown an ability to raise significant capital. Even then, however, the same terms should attach to a government grant that do to the private investments, and thus the entire practice is problematic and best avoided, he said.

"It's just rife with conflict and bad information," Kaplan told RCI. "For a private investor, if you're negative, you go out of business. But if it's the government and it goes negative, they raise your taxes."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 14:15

Federal Judge Orders DHS Not To Obey Order From Another Judge

Zero Hedge -

Federal Judge Orders DHS Not To Obey Order From Another Judge

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on July 8 said the Trump administration must not comply with an order from another federal judge and must continue to have key functions of an immigration database disabled.

The Department of Homeland Security building in Washington on March 25, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Judge Sparkle Sooknanan of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia said that officials with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and other agencies shall keep disabled the ability to look up Social Security numbers and carry out mass uploads in the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system.

Sooknanan ordered the Trump administration in June to disable the features, finding that recent updates to the database violated privacy laws by disclosing Americans' Social Security numbers and other sensitive information.

Sooknanan said on July 8 that arguments from the government in favor of pausing her previous order were unpersuasive, including the argument that highlighted a July 7 ruling from Judge T. Kent Wetherell II of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida that ordered DHS to enable the functions for four states under a 2025 settlement that he had approved.

Wetherell had noted that he could have waited until the case in Washington proceeded, but that the four states had presented "unrebutted evidence showing that they are suffering real and concrete harm every day that passes without the disabled features of the SAVE system."

He said that Sooknanan could have deferred to his previous determination that the functions were lawful, which was reached, he said, in part because the Social Security Act does not preclude disclosing Social Security numbers for immigration enforcement.

Sooknanan disagreed, describing Wetherell as having "erred in significant ways," including by reaching a decision on the merits in the case without opinions from parties outside the federal and state governments that oppose the governments' position.

Sooknanan said that settlements may warrant reexamination and that she acted properly by enjoining DHS from allowing officials to use the new features introduced in 2025 despite the existence of the settlement.

Even if Wetherell's ruling ends up holding, the settlement is only with DHS, not the Social Security Administration (SSA), and only with four states, the judge wrote, so it would not prompt a stay of her earlier order with respect to the other 46 states.

DHS, which had declined to comment on Wetherell's decision, did not return a request for comment on Sooknanan's ruling by the time of publication.

The four states have not reacted to the competing rulings.

The Electronic Privacy Information Center and the League of Women Voters, the plaintiffs in the case overseen by Sooknanan, asked Wetherell this week to allow them to intervene in the case involving the states, citing the contradictory orders and their interest in the situation. He has not yet ruled on the motion.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 13:25

Three Reasons Gas Prices Are Likely To Remain Elevated

Zero Hedge -

Three Reasons Gas Prices Are Likely To Remain Elevated

The US national average for regular 87-octane gasoline remained uncomfortably above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon threshold for roughly two and a half months. That stretch pressured lower-income consumers, forcing many to trade down or cut discretionary spending while weighing on broader consumer sentiment. The key question now is whether pump prices have further room to fall or whether current levels will become the new normal this summer.

Answering that question is Goldman's leading commodity expert Daan Struyven, who penned a note on Thursday explaining the three forces keeping pump prices high:

Reason #1: Tight Refining Fundamentals

Exhibit 4: The Global Refining Utilization Rate Was Near Historical Highs Before the Hormuz Shock

Exhibit 5: Refined Oil Products Stocks Are Low

Reason #2: Ongoing Refined Products Supply Shocks

Exhibit 6: Combined Refinery Outages in Russia and the Middle East Are 4.6mb/d Above Their Seasonal Normss

Reason #3: Asymmetric Passthrough

Exhibit 7: Firms Look Much More Likely to Report Selling Price Increases After Energy Prices Rise—Such as in 2021 and 2022—Than Report Selling Price Decreases When Energy Prices Fall—Like in 2023 and 2024

Struyven's three reasons suggest that the recent declines in the national average prices of gasoline, diesel, and other refined fuels may prove limited.

Professional subscribers can read more on energy markets and Gulf/Hormuz at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 13:05

World's First Commercial Nuclear-Powered Satellite Set For Launch Aboard SpaceX Rocket

Zero Hedge -

World's First Commercial Nuclear-Powered Satellite Set For Launch Aboard SpaceX Rocket

Authored by Mrigakshi Dixit via Interesting Engineering,

Miami-based City Labs is all set to launch the world's first commercial nuclear-powered satellite into orbit.

NanoTritium battery Citi Labs

Solar panels have some challenges. When a satellite slips into the shadow of the Earth, hits a permanently dark lunar crater, or drifts into deep space, its solar arrays become useless. Batteries can step in, but they eventually die.

City Labs thinks nuclear energy could solve this persistent problem. On July 7, the company announced that its BOHR (Betavoltaic Orbital High-Reliability) satellite had secured a launch slot on a SpaceX Transporter-17 rideshare mission.

According to reports, SpaceX has scheduled the launch of its Transporter-17 rideshare mission for Tuesday, July 7, at 3:10 a.m. ET. The launch will mark a massive historic milestone. BOHR will be the first-ever nuclear CubeSat to enter orbit.

"This is a historic step for commercial nuclear power in space," said Peter Cabauy, CEO of City Labs. "BOHR demonstrates that safe, compact, and regulatory-approved nuclear power systems are ready for routine commercial deployment. This capability enables persistent, always-on payload operations that are not constrained by sunlight or battery life."

Secures FAA approval

Engineered for safe handling, transportation, and integration into standard commercial launch environments, City Labs' tritium-based power systems operate at extremely low radiation levels.

BOHR's core technology is City Labs' proprietary NanoTritium™ betavoltaic system, which generates continuous power from the natural beta decay of tritium rather than nuclear fission.

Compared to space-bound nuclear reactors, betavoltaic cells operate with no moving parts, no liquid electrolytes, and zero risk of fire or thermal runaway. Furthermore, as the tritium fuel naturally decays, it harmlessly transforms into helium-3, a completely stable and non-radioactive isotope.

This process operates at safe, ultra-low radiation levels suitable for standard commercial handling. In this mission, the nuclear battery will run and validate the primary payload independently, while a solar power system manages the main satellite bus operations.

Getting a nuclear payload onto a commercial rocket isn't easy.

In fact, it requires cutting through some of the toughest regulatory red tape on Earth. BOHR represents the first commercial space mission to successfully navigate the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) pathway for nuclear launch approval, a framework established under National Security Presidential Memorandum-20. The safety analysis was led by City Labs' Kevin Makinson and independently validated by Sandia National Laboratories.

The FAA issued its definitive payload authorization on September 30, 2025.

Advancing space exploration

Backed by the Department of War, NASA, and the Air Force Research Laboratory, the mission arrives at a key time for space exploration.

NASA's Artemis program aims to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon. Therefore, the demand for continuous, light-independent power sources is skyrocketing. It could position this satellite as a pathfinder for future deep-space operations.

"This milestone establishes a new class of spacecraft capabilities, enabling persistent operation of critical subsystems where traditional power systems fall short. This includes deep space, permanently shadowed lunar regions, and long-duration autonomous sensor networks," the company stated in the press release.

As a result, the BOHR mission will serve as a vital pathfinder for future nuclear-powered spacecraft supporting both civil and national security operations. When SpaceX's Falcon 9 lifts off, it will be launching the next era of nuclear-powered space exploration.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 12:45

Pages