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US Troops Leak New Iran War Photos Of Gulf Bases: 'Major Damage Hidden From American Public'

As we've been documenting, it is clear that major damage has yet to be communicated to the American public regarding Iran's major retaliation on US bases in the Gulf and Mideast since the start of Trump's Operation Epic Fury. 

During the same week that a long awaited Pentagon/Department of War Inspector General's report was released covering the first four months of the Iran War, new leaked photographs have emerged of never-before-seen base damage.

"New photos obtained exclusively by CBS News reveal for the first time the widespread damage and destruction of buildings and vehicles at multiple U.S. positions across the Middle East, as a result of Iranian missile and drone attacks," according to a bombshell Tuesday CBS report. Below is from Prince Sultan AFB, Saudi Arabia:

Source: CBS

The outlet describes that the photos have been submitted by US service members under strict secrecy and anonymity - given the Pentagon has sought to enforce a crackdown on troops sharing the extent of damage, and amid orders aimed at maintaining operational security. But critics say the Pentagon and Trump administration are engaged in a cover-up and propaganda. 

"This is major damage to our bases that hasn't been communicated to the American public," an actively deployed unnamed service member said to CBS News.

The service member added: "We're standing there with our eyes closed getting punched in the face."

Below is from Camp Arifjan, Kuwait:

Source CBS

Recent Iranian attacks on bases in Jordan have continued intermittently over the past weeks, and some pundits have warned that American personnel that continue to be stationed there are essentially sitting ducks.

The ballistic missile volleys from Iran have only gotten bigger, such as the last major attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan during the night of September 8-9.

On Monday the newly released Pentagon Inspector General's report said that "hundreds" of buildings and structures at US bases have been destroyed...

“Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan during the conflict.”

More leaked images via CBS:

It was not just bases that got directly hit, and mainly within merely the opening weeks of Operation Epic Fury - but even consulates, embassies, and intelligence buildings have been targeted and suffered damage.

"U.S. diplomatic facilities in four countries—Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—suffered physical damage from Iranian strikes," the Pentagon has conceded.

American service members in Saudi are leaking photos of bases destroyed by Iranian strikes that the Pentagon is trying to cover up pic.twitter.com/glyqOKBWwA

— The Gulag (@WelcomeTheGulag) September 15, 2026

According to prior analysis from Amerikanets: "After destroying much of the radar network protecting regional US Axis bases in the previous hot phase of the war, Iranian planners have prioritized targeting fuel storage, drone hangers, refueling tankers, and barracks."

The same analysis concluded: "The American response has been to pull assets back ever further from Iran, to bases in Israel and Jordan. We’ll call this process debasification. Iran’s debasification strategy takes advantage of the inherent asymmetry between the vastly different force structure and capabilities of Iranian rocket forces and US Axis air forces."

See the full photo set here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 20:55

US Troops Leak New Iran War Photos Of Gulf Bases: 'Major Damage Hidden From American Public'

As we've been documenting, it is clear that major damage has yet to be communicated to the American public regarding Iran's major retaliation on US bases in the Gulf and Mideast since the start of Trump's Operation Epic Fury. 

During the same week that a long awaited Pentagon/Department of War Inspector General's report was released covering the first four months of the Iran War, new leaked photographs have emerged of never-before-seen base damage.

"New photos obtained exclusively by CBS News reveal for the first time the widespread damage and destruction of buildings and vehicles at multiple U.S. positions across the Middle East, as a result of Iranian missile and drone attacks," according to a bombshell Tuesday CBS report. Below is from Prince Sultan AFB, Saudi Arabia:

Source: CBS

The outlet describes that the photos have been submitted by US service members under strict secrecy and anonymity - given the Pentagon has sought to enforce a crackdown on troops sharing the extent of damage, and amid orders aimed at maintaining operational security. But critics say the Pentagon and Trump administration are engaged in a cover-up and propaganda. 

"This is major damage to our bases that hasn't been communicated to the American public," an actively deployed unnamed service member said to CBS News.

The service member added: "We're standing there with our eyes closed getting punched in the face."

Below is from Camp Arifjan, Kuwait:

Source CBS

Recent Iranian attacks on bases in Jordan have continued intermittently over the past weeks, and some pundits have warned that American personnel that continue to be stationed there are essentially sitting ducks.

The ballistic missile volleys from Iran have only gotten bigger, such as the last major attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan during the night of September 8-9.

On Monday the newly released Pentagon Inspector General's report said that "hundreds" of buildings and structures at US bases have been destroyed...

“Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan during the conflict.”

More leaked images via CBS:

It was not just bases that got directly hit, and mainly within merely the opening weeks of Operation Epic Fury - but even consulates, embassies, and intelligence buildings have been targeted and suffered damage.

"U.S. diplomatic facilities in four countries—Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—suffered physical damage from Iranian strikes," the Pentagon has conceded.

American service members in Saudi are leaking photos of bases destroyed by Iranian strikes that the Pentagon is trying to cover up pic.twitter.com/glyqOKBWwA

— The Gulag (@WelcomeTheGulag) September 15, 2026

According to prior analysis from Amerikanets: "After destroying much of the radar network protecting regional US Axis bases in the previous hot phase of the war, Iranian planners have prioritized targeting fuel storage, drone hangers, refueling tankers, and barracks."

The same analysis concluded: "The American response has been to pull assets back ever further from Iran, to bases in Israel and Jordan. We’ll call this process debasification. Iran’s debasification strategy takes advantage of the inherent asymmetry between the vastly different force structure and capabilities of Iranian rocket forces and US Axis air forces."

See the full photo set here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 20:55

"I Like Them": Trump Weighs In On Flock Surveillance Cameras

You know those Flock surveillance cameras everyone hates? Trump just came out in favor of them. 

A Flock camera monitors traffic in Quincy, Massachusetts. (Greg Derr/Patriot Ledger/USA Today Network/Reuters Connect)

Speaking with reporters on Sunday on Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Trump endorsed the AI-powered mass surveillance tool. 

"Speaking of [AI], Flock cameras. You haven’t talked a lot about these Flock cameras. A lot of law enforcement say they really help them. Would you be willing to back that?" a reporter asked Trump. 

"No, I sort of like them because of that, because of law enforcement. But some people don’t. They think it’s an infringement," Trump replied, adding "I like them." 

Trump previously said in August that he would make up his mind regarding Flock cameras "over the next couple of weeks," telling the DCNF "You have pros and cons, right? It’s being studied right now." 

As the Epoch Times notes further, in recent months, multiple cities across the United States have removed their Flock cameras, including Tempe, Arizona; Bellingham, Massachusetts; Cave Creek, Arizona; and multiple counties in Texas.

Earlier this month, the Dallas Police Department said the agency would shut down hundreds of Flock cameras in the coming days in response to a pause in funding.

Florida’s Department of Transportation, meanwhile, said in a memo that it would end its use of license-plate reading cameras, including those made by Flock.

More than 100 jurisdictions have canceled their contracts with Flock and other automated license plate reader providers, according to a database from the Institute for Justice, a nonprofit law firm that says it aims to end government abuse of power.

Flock CEO Garrett Langley has pushed back against the growing concerns about the cameras, saying that people should be worried about their privacy but added that the license plate-reading cameras can be used to promote safety.

“I value my privacy, my family values their privacy, my employees value their privacy, but what we’re talking about is safety as well,” he told Fox News in August. “When people talk about just one of these, privacy or safety, they’re prioritizing the wrong thing.”

“And what we have to prioritize as a country is compromise—when I think about legislation that calls for an outright ban, that’s like banning vehicles,” he said.

The issue has also become a midterm campaign target and has drawn scrutiny in Congress.

In Congress, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said he launched a probe into Flock cameras and demanded that Langley provide his office answers on safeguards to protect Americans’ data.

Earlier this year, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) introduced a measure in the House of Representatives, the “Protection Against Mass Surveillance Act,” that would bar federal agencies from using automated surveillance systems to track, record, and identify people. That includes automated license plate-reading systems like Flock.

Josh Shapiro, the Democratic Pennsylvania governor seeking reelection and considered a potential contender for the White House in 2028, said in late August that he would support a statewide ban. In early September, his Republican opponent, Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity, said in a statement, “Flock cameras are an intrusive invasion of privacy and they should be banned.”

Zachary Stieber and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 20:30

Libya Threatens Force Majeure As Oil Guards Shut Fields

By Julianne Geiger, of OilPrice.com

Libya’s National Oil Corporation is threatening to declare force majeure after members of the security force assigned to protect the country’s oil infrastructure shut a pipeline valve and halted production at two fields.

Production has stopped completely at the Hamada and Tahara oilfields and at a pumping station after members of the Petroleum Facilities Guard closed a valve on the main Hamada-Zawiya crude pipeline, NOC said Tuesday.

The shutdown could spread.

The Petroleum Facilities Guard said it would impose partial production cuts for one week at several additional fields, including Wafa, Al-Khamsa and El Feel. A full shutdown would follow if its demands are not met.

The Guard wants to be transferred financially and administratively from Libya’s defense ministry to the National Oil Corporation and has called for a timetable to complete the move.

NOC said it could declare force majeure if the closed valve is not reopened or if similar shutdowns hit other oilfields.

Libya has been here before. Political groups, armed factions and workers have repeatedly used oilfields, pipelines and terminals as leverage since the 2011 uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi.

The latest disruption lands just as Libya is trying to push production much higher.

Output has climbed to roughly 1.4 million barrels per day, its highest level in more than a decade. NOC is targeting 1.6 million bpd by the end of 2026 and 2 million bpd by the early 2030s.

Getting there could require $36 billion to $40 billion in foreign investment, according to NOC Chairman Masoud Suleman.

International companies have already started moving back in. Libya signed exploration and production-sharing agreements this year with Repsol, Turkish Petroleum, Eni, QatarEnergy and MOL following its first major licensing round in 17 years. BP, Shell, Exxon and Chevron have also been pursuing a return.

NOC received a $2 billion allocation under Libya’s 2026 budget to support its production plans.

The problem is much older than the investment push: fields capable of producing more oil are still vulnerable to whoever controls the valve.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 20:05

Stay-At-Home Subsidies Won't Produce A Baby Boom

Authored by Thomas Savidge via The Daily Economy,

Over Labor Day weekend, amidst Americans' attempts to enjoy the waning days of summer, The New York Times published an article titled "Trump Officials Draft Plan to Pay At-Home Parents, Using Funds for Working Ones." Per the story, the administration's proposal would use funds from the Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF), which subsidizes daycare for working parents, to pay stay-at-home parents for their at-home childcare.

My family could potentially qualify for the payment, but my wife and I understand that this program could jeopardize our children's future. While families may find these cash transfers helpful in the short-term, the cost of these transfers could exacerbate the US's already fiscally unstable situation.

What This Proposal Could Look Like

According to the Times article, the Trump administration is drafting a rule that would let some married households use CCDF funds to support a parent caring for their child at home. The other spouse would have to work at least 35 hours per week, and benefits would still be income-limited. Eligibility and payment terms would depend on final policy.

The CCDF currently funds "center-based childcare providers" (daycares) as well as family childcare providers and in-home childcare, so long as these providers are licensed and meet state and local requirements applicable for professional caregivers. The proposed change would make a qualifying child's own parent eligible to receive the same support.

Outside of these scant details, little is known about the proposal. A similar policy was, however, proposed in a Heritage Foundation report last January. Instead of using CCDF funds, the report proposes a separate Home Childcare Equalization credit. The hypothetical tax credit would add up to $2,000 per eligible child under five to Heritage's proposed Family and Marriage credit. Marriage and earned income would be required, and benefits received through the CCDF (as well as the child and dependent care tax credit) would reduce the proposed credits dollar for dollar.

Heritage estimates that its two credits together would cost about $188.7 billion over ten years, and proposes other spending cuts to offset part of the cost. The new proposal will have its own budget consequences. Redirecting existing funds and creating additional benefits require different fiscal assessments.

Greater Parental Choice, But Minimal Impact On Fertility

Care provided by a parent has an economic cost even when no bill arrives. When one parent stays home, that parent likely gives up earnings as well as career advancement. For most, the trade-off is worthwhile. Interviews of highly educated mothers who choose to be stay-at-home parents to many children found these women "see maternity as a high-risk and high-reward endeavor, an ambitious-but-potentially-thrilling life project." Furthermore, research on mothers' wellbeing strengthens the case for parental choice. A study of more than 2,000 mothers linked better wellbeing to employment arrangements that matched mothers' preferences. A separate longitudinal study found elevated depressive symptoms among unemployed mothers only when they wanted paid work. Offering greater choice for parents among existing funds may provide a silver lining: parents will be better able to pursue the career-family dynamic that best suits their needs and goals.

That silver lining, however, must be taken into context. While not stated explicitly, this CCDF proposal is part of the administration's broader efforts to combat declining birthrates. In May, the White House grouped support for stay-at-home parents with fertility benefits, the Child Tax Credits, and Trump Accounts. An IVF announcement last February explicitly cited declining fertility and the goal of "more babies and expanding American families." That broader demographic ambition makes the likely impact on fertility relevant, even if the forthcoming CCDF proposal does not mention it.

Claims that this change (or other fiscal stimulus programs) can usher in a baby boom deserve skepticism. An OECD review finds that cash benefits and tax incentives generally produce modest, sometimes temporary fertility increases. As my colleague Jeff Degner and I noted last January, the Heritage report rightfully admits: "While other nations have tried to reverse declining birthrates through financially generous family policies, none has succeeded in restoring fertility to replacement levels. This demonstrates that government spending alone does not ensure demographic success."

The evidence does not establish whether this proposal would increase fertility. Even if it did produce a temporary increase in births, that could partly reflect families having children sooner without increasing their eventual family size.

Greater choice can be assessed on its own merits; lawmakers should not count on a large fertility response to justify the expense.

The Best Inheritance? Fiscal Discipline And Prosperity

Broader eligibility does not automatically require more federal spending, but, with a fixed budget, more applicants could mean greater competition for smaller benefits. Families excluded from parental care payments could press for inclusion, while existing recipients seek protection from funding reductions. Lawmakers often find it easier to increase spending than to choose among competing claims.

Funding decisions about this proposal take place against a federal debt burden that has already passed $40 trillion. In its February outlook, the Congressional Budget Office projected that debt held by the public would rise from 101 percent of gross domestic product in 2026 to 120 percent by 2036. Existing commitments already put borrowing costs on an unsustainable path.

Persistent borrowing can absorb savings that would otherwise finance private investment, weakening the growth that supports future wages. CBO's analysis of delayed debt stabilization finds that waiting to adjust increases the eventual shock and imposes greater burdens on younger generations. Those consequences belong in any discussion of helping children.

What really matters for family stability is sustained spending restraint that reduces deficits and makes room for lasting tax relief. Parents, my wife and I included, could keep more of what we earn and decide how to use it. Fiscal discipline must accompany the promises of lower taxes. Additionally, tackling inflation, the most corrosive anti-family force of all, can help make life more affordable.

Any CCDF reform should explain its funding limit and provide a workable transition for current recipients. Those standards should apply to the benefits my household may receive as firmly as to programs serving other Americans.

My wife and I would rather Washington make difficult spending choices while we can help bear the adjustment. Our children will live with the consequences of our choices now long after any parental care payments end. Lasting prosperity is the inheritance most worthy of preserving.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 19:15

Largest US Power Grid Faces Dire Crisis By 2030 If Data Center Load Growth Continues

By 2030, the PJM Interconnection, the largest US electrical grid in the US serving 67 million people in 13 northeast states, is likely to face a “loss of load expectation,” or LOLE -  a key reliability metric used by power system planners to measure the expected number of hours or days per year that a power grid's electricity generation will fail to meet customer demand - between six and 100 times worse than the grid operator’s planning criterion, mainly due to the addition of large-load data centers, according to a study commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission.

The PUC and the firms that produced the report - Synapse Energy Economics, Mondre Energy and Aspen Technologies - characterized it as an independent analysis aimed at developing load projections and evaluating resource adequacy under a set of likely possible futures, according to UtillityDive.

In models covering 2027 through 2030, both a reference scenario and a high-load, low-supply scenario show PJM’s planning criteria for resource adequacy not being met. Only under a scenario with no new data centers is the region able to meet PJM’s target LOLE of 0.1, the report said.

PJM’s standard is designed to limit potential electricity shortages “to approximately one event every 10 years,” said a PUC release about the report. 

In the study’s reference scenario, which relies on PJM’s 2026 load forecast, the modeled 2030 LOLE is 0.59, “or nearly six times worse than the PJM planning criterion,” it said.

In a “worst-case future” of higher-than-expected load additions and constrained resource deployment, the modeled LOLE is 13.20 — “over 100 times worse than PJM’s planning criterion,” indicating an expectation of “more than 13 days with loss of load events per year.”

“As in the Reference scenario, these reliability issues are largely due to surging data center additions,” the study said.

“This analysis sends a clear warning: electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable,” PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank said in a statement. “We need urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy that makes sure our supply of electricity keeps pace with demand.”

PJM, in a statement to CBS affiliate WJAC, acknowledged that new data center loads are growing faster than supply.

“PJM has taken a number of actions to both increase electricity supply and manage new demand in line with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge taken by data center developers to shield residential customers and other ratepayers from bearing reliability risks or cost increases associated with data center development,” said Jeff Shields, PJM’s senior manager of external communications.

The reference scenario anticipates Pennsylvania remaining a net energy exporter, but sees its exports “decrease from about 91 TWh in 2025 to about 69 TWh by 2035 and 38 TWh by 2040,” the report said.

In the high-load, low-supply scenario, Pennsylvania becomes a net importer of 5 TWh by 2040. 

An aerial view of the construction of an Amazon Web Services data center on Aug. 26, 2026, in Sterling, Va, located in the PJM Interconnection, the largest grid in the U.S. and an epicenter of data center construction

“Because this scenario has a large amount of unmet load in 2031 and later years, it is likely that some amount of this 2035 and 2040 load will be unmet, as there will not be enough regional generation to meet PJM-wide load requirements,” the report says.

Last month, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, D, issued an executive order that the state will offer preferential permitting to data center projects with peak demand of more than 25 MW if they commit to certain requirements, including sourcing their electricity from new power supplies.

The PUC also voted unanimously Thursday to approve two motions concerning data center development and ratemaking. One of the motions directs PUC staff to propose updates to the state’s rules for emergency curtailment, and to organize a technical conference on cost allocation for data centers.

The report notes that PJM and the U.S. Department of Energy “have implemented several initiatives, policies, and programs to address growing concerns about PJM’s resource adequacy,” including interconnection queue reform and reliability backstop procurement. 

“PJM and its stakeholders are also currently discussing additional initiatives such as load forecasting improvements,” the report said. “DOE has also committed to keeping some coal-fired power plants online beyond their retirement date, in an effort to maintain resource supply in the region.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 18:50

Board Votes To Shut Down Kennedy Center

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The board of the Kennedy Center voted Sept. 15 to close the arts facility “immediately” for safety reasons so rehabilitation work may be performed on the building, President Donald Trump said.

Workers outside The John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts in Washingotn after they updated the signage in honor of President Donald Trump on Dec. 19, 2025. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Trump made the announcement on Truth Social hours after a federal judge blocked the board from putting Trump’s name on the building’s facade or renaming its grounds in his honor.

U.S. District Judge Christopher R. Cooper ruled that the plan to add inscriptions honoring the current president would violate an existing injunction and the 1964 law that made the cultural center a memorial to the late President John F. Kennedy, which only Congress may alter.

The judge said that in 1983, Congress amended the 1964 law to ensure that “no additional memorials or plaques in the nature of memorials shall be designated or installed in the public areas of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.”

Trump said the U.S. Department of Justice is seeking an expedited appeal of Cooper’s new ruling.

He said the closing of the center would happen “immediately,” but the rehabilitation project, which he described as “a very large and complex job,” cannot get underway until the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issues a ruling “on the Board’s approved name.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 18:25

Dollar General CEO Warns Even "Upper-Middle Acting Like Lower-Income" Amid Fuel Crisis

Speaking at Goldman Sachs' 33rd Annual Global Retailing Conference on Tuesday morning, Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos offered a downbeat assessment of its customer base, warning that financial stress is spreading up the income ladder to middle- and upper-middle-income households. 

Years of elevated prices for everyday goods, compounded by gasoline prices above $4 a gallon nationally and $6 a gallon for diesel, are certaintly reshaping consumer habits across income cohorts. Vasos said that even customers earning $100,000 or more, whom Dollar General classifies as higher income, are increasingly under stress. 

Vasos explained:

And we've always said here at Dollar General for our core customer that any time that gas prices get anywhere close to four and then crests $4 a gallon, the customer changes their their shopping behavior, stays closer to home normally shops more often, but buys less on each occasion.

And that's exactly what the core customer is faring. But the interesting thing with this economy, because of the other sustained headwinds of inflation over the years that have passed, even that middle to upper middle is acting more like a lower income shopper these days. And they had that same characteristic. And then high income for us is that that $100,000 plus crowd.

The CEO of Dollar General, which has more than 21,000 stores nationwide, offers a real-time snapshot of consumer spending patterns and sentiment.

On Monday, Jefferies food analyst Scott Marks also flagged new pressure on convenience store customers as gasoline and diesel prices soared in August.

All of this highlights the Trump administration's urgent search for energy price relief ahead of the midterms. Export restrictions on diesel entered the conversation earlier today with Senate Majority Leader John Thune. The administration is also considering measures to increase U.S. refining capacity (yet capacity is at 98%). Whether Trump officials will suspend federal fuel taxes remains to be seen.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 18:00

Thune "Open To Exploring" Diesel Export Ban As Skyrocketing Prices Raise Fears Of 2008-Style Shock

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters this morning that he is "open to exploring" a diesel export ban as AAA's national average price for the industrial fuel continues to set new highs, now topping $6.27 a gallon.

*THUNE SAYS HE IS 'OPEN TO CONSIDERING' AN EXPORT BAN ON DIESEL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 15, 2026

His comments follow a warning yesterday from Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone that surging fuel prices are signaling the risk of a 2008-style energy shock.

"We'll be looking at any proposal that is a viable solution, but I do think if we have the supply in this country and we're exporting it right now that might be one way of getting at it," Thune told reporters, who were quoted by Bloomberg, in response to a question. "If that would take pressure off of prices, you know I'm open to exploring it."

Any broad diesel ban by the US would initially lower Gulf Coast wholesale prices while driving overseas diesel prices even higher, as the world is engulfed in a refinery crisis produced by the Russia-Ukraine war and compounded by the mess in the Gulf area.

The latest EIA data show U.S. distillate exports averaged about 1.7 million barrels a day over the four weeks through September 4. Distillates include diesel and heating oil, so the volume affected would depend on the ban's scope.

The surge in industrial fuel costs prompted Bloomberg Intelligence's McGlone to warn on Monday: "Commodity spikes tend to sow the seeds of their own reversal, and diesel's first-ever surge above $6 a gallon may echo gasoline's 2008 experience. The US daily average gasoline price, at roughly $4.30 on Sept. 11, is only about 4% above its 2008 peak, which helped fuel the Great Recession."

JPMorgan's head of commodities research, Natasha Kaneva, outlined six policy options in March that the Trump administration could pursue to contain oil prices.

Several, including Jones Act waivers and SPR releases, have already been deployed. New discussion of export restrictions raises the question of whether a federal fuel-tax suspension could also enter the policy conversation to contain runaway fuel prices.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 14:20

Japanese Bond Yields Surge To 30 Year High On Report Tokyo May Hike Defense Spending To 3.5% Of GDP

Just in case Japan's bond yields weren't high enough already, Bloomberg reports that Japan is considering a new mid-term defense spending target of 3.5% of GDP in line with NATO and other US allies. Such a move would send a shockwave through financial markets concerned about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans at a time when Japan is preparing to trim tax receipts even more by cutting consumption tax to 1%.

Japanese defense officials have already signaled a willingness to sharply increase defense spending in meetings with their US counterparts, Bloomberg reported. One scenario under consideration is to match a commitment made by South Korea to increase defense spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product over 10 years, while a lower target, such as 3%, is also possible, according to one of the people.

Responding to the news, Japanese Defense Ministry Press Secretary Kimihito Aguin denied that Japan had expressed an intention to the US to sharply raise spending to 3.5% of GDP, although that is likely explained by his fear how the bond market would react if another huge spending category is suddenly revealed. 

“Japan’s defense buildup is something we undertake based on our own independent judgment, under the fundamental principle that we must defend our own country ourselves,” Aguin said at a press conference Tuesday. “It is also not a matter of starting with a predetermined spending figure. What matters is the substance of our defense capabilities.”

Well, the substance of Japan's defense capabilities is entirely dependent on how much is spent, so.... 

Like other US allies, Tokyo has been under pressure from the Trump administration to boost its defensive strength and reduce its reliance on the American military. Takaichi has already accelerated defense spending to almost 2% of gross domestic product in the financial year ended in March this year, two years ahead of schedule. 

Until 2022, Japan had an informal cap on defense spending around 1% of GDP, an indication of how quickly thinking on defense has changed in recent years. A new five-year defense spending plan is expected at the end of this year. Committing to 3.5% could unsettle market players wary of large debt issuance, even though Takaichi has pledged to follow a “responsible, proactive fiscal policy.”

While US defense officials have largely avoided public pressure on Japan to commit to a 3.5% defense spending goal, they have made clear that they expect significantly more investment. 

“We are anxiously looking for Japan to step up,” US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby said last month of Tokyo’s defense spending.

In June, Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party noted that 3.5% had become a global standard for defense spending, but didn’t provide recommendations on how Japan could pay for such a level of outlays.

“We’ll review both spending and revenue across the board,” Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tuesday. “While keeping a close eye on tax revenue, we’ll determine a level of fiscal spending — including, of course, defense spending — that is consistent with steadily bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio.”

In meetings between defense officials from both nations, Japan has indicated it will most likely align with other US allies but it has avoided discussing details. Some Japanese officials have said they aren’t ready to make a formal pledge and would deny the existence of such a goal if it was made public, according to Bloomberg. In public, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has also said spending will be determined by military needs rather than monetary targets.

Behind Japan’s caution over specifying a goal is concern over the amount of funding needed to reach 3.5%. When Japan set its 2% goal in 2022 it said it would continue to measure spending in comparison to GDP that year. Koizumi said in April that defense spending and related expenditures for this fiscal year of ¥10.6 trillion ($68.8 billion) were equivalent to 1.9% of nominal GDP in 2022.

Measured against the Cabinet Office’s nominal GDP forecast for this fiscal year, spending would come to 1.5%, he said. A budget of 3.5% using that forecast would amount to ¥24 trillion, more than double the current amount.

Spending 3.5% of GDP on defense has become a global benchmark for US allies since North Atlantic Treaty Organization members pledged last June to reach that level by 2035. As a national security hawk and strong advocate of the US-Japan alliance, Takaichi has made clear she wants to further boost the military. 

“Japan needs to proactively pursue a fundamental strengthening of its defense capabilities,” she said in parliament this year.

But she also has ambitious plans for the economy. This year Takaichi announced a growth plan targeting more than ¥370 trillion in combined public and private investment by 2040, a program that may strain the nation’s finances. Ramping up defense spending at the same time may test investors’ confidence in Japan’s ability to keep a lid on its debt. After lifting its informal cap on defense spending in 2022, Japan has made significant investments in long-range strike capabilities such as land and ship-launched Tomahawk missiles. In its budget request for the fiscal year starting next April, the Defense Ministry requested a record ¥8.9 trillion for the next fiscal year, up 0.9% from the current year.

But many items in the budget request haven’t been given a projected cost, meaning the final budget is likely to be much higher. Yen weakness has also eroded Japan’s spending power for weapons from overseas.

Even if Japan commits to 3.5%, it would lag behind NATO countries. For NATO, the target is for so-called “core” defense spending, such as weapons and troop salaries. Members have also pledged an additional 1.5% of GDP for defense-related spending, such as protecting critical infrastructure.

Japan bundles core and non-core spending in its defense budget, meaning that it would be spending less on its military as a percentage of GDP than NATO countries even if it raised defense outlays to 3.5% of GDP.

Robert Ward, Japan Chair at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the groundwork had been laid among policymakers and bureaucrats in Japan for a big jump in defense spending. It’s now mostly a matter of timing of when Japan goes to 3.5%, he said.

“Whether it’s over five years or 10 years, I don’t see any alternative given how important the US alliance is,” Ward said.

Japanese defense shares IHI Corp and Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd closed 1.8% and 0.9% higher in Tokyo, reversing earlier losses of more than 2%, after the report came out. The biggest impact was on Japanese government bonds extended their fall, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 1996. The yen weakened as far as 155.24 to the dollar.

“There are fiscal concerns, as shown in the bond market reaction, so it’s difficult for investors to take news like this positively,” said Daisuke Aiba, an analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities Co. “Plus, there are questions about whether Japan actually has the ability to expand its defense capabilities beyond their current limited scope.”

There was more: besides spending more, Japan is hell-bent on also collecting less (after all there are votes to be bought), and on Tuesday the Takaichi cabinet approved a plan to temporarily reduce the consumption tax on food, moving closer to delivering on a key campaign pledge ahead of February’s national election to ease the burden on households from the soaring cost of living by eliminating sales tax on food for two years.

The cabinet signed off on the annual tax reform plan, which calls for lowering the sales tax on food and beverages to 1% from 8% for two years starting in April. Under the proposal, the government won’t issue new debt to finance the roughly ¥5 trillion ($32.3 billion) measure, but... of course it will in the end. The government deferred until the end of the year a decision on how to fund the tax cut. The reason for the delay: there is no other way to fund the tax cut since no other part of the Japanese govt will agree to slashing its own expenditures. 

“Tax revenue will likely rise, and also we will review various revenue and expenditures,” Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tuesday during an appearance on Fuji TV, reiterating that the government will find ways to finance the measure without relying on new debt. She added that Japan’s version of the Department of Government Efficiency will step up efforts to review and eliminate redundant subsidies and spending.

“We will make sweeping cuts to wasteful spending from now on,” Katayama said, responding to criticism that ministries identified only three programs for possible cuts in voluntary reviews aimed at finding cost savings.

Oh yes, a Japanese DOGE. That should help slow down debt issuance in the most indebted country in world history. 

Borrowing costs for the Japanese government were already elevated, with bond yields hovering near three-decade highs. The 10-year yield hit 3% earlier this month for the first time since 1996, driven by concerns over inflation and fiscal spending as well as expectations the Bank of Japan may need to raise interest rates more quickly. The yield was half that level around this time last year; it closed Tuesday at 3.04%, the highest since August 2016.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 13:40

Terrible 20Y Auction Prices With Huge Tail, Lowest Foreign Demand On Record

Earlier today during his grilling in Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked to explain the recent spike in yields, to which his response was to blame oil, and point out that last week's 10Y and 30Y auctions were both stellar. Which they were... but only because they took place on days when yields soared earlier itn eh day, giving buyers in the auction solid concessions and thus a desire to bid aggressively for the paper, which they did.

*BESSENT: JUST HAD 2 OF MOST SUCCESSFUL DEBT AUCTIONS IN 20 YRS

right, thanks to the huge concessions on VaR shock days

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 15, 2026

There was no such concession today when yields had been trading around 5% for much of the day. And without a concession, demand for today's 20Y Treasury auction was much more indicative of the true state of the primary bond market.

And that is, to Bessent's disappointment, very dismal!

The auction priced at a high yield of 5.420%, the highest on record since the 20Y auction was introduced in May of 2020, and up from 5.204% in August. Worse, it tailed the When Issued 5.400%, a 2.0bps tail, which was the biggest since 2024!

The bid to cover was below average: at 2.57 it was just above last month's 2.53, but below the recent average of 2.65.

The internals were far worse: Indirects plunged from 62.9% to just 52.5%, far below the recent average of 68.0%, and in fact, the lowest on record!

And with Directs soaring to 30.7% from 24.6%, which was the highest on record by a wide margin, left Dealers holding 16.9%, not quite the highest on record but close.

So what's the verdict? Well, hot on the heels of two stellar auctions last week, which however were only stellar because the broader market was plunging, today's 20Y was as close to a failed auction as Bessent would like to get at a time when QE is not there to mop up any treasury mess that the surge in inflation can cause. Which reminds us: now that the buyback bluff has failed, what will be the next crisis that sets up the US for the next version of QE (we lost track which one that will be) and maybe just fast forward to the first Yield Curve Control since World War II. And why not: pretty much anyone who is paying attention will tell you that the world now finds itself in another world war... 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 13:30

Energy Truce In Shambles: Ukraine Strikes Russian Refinery Despite Trump's Warning Amid Global Diesel Crisis

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that Ukrainian forces struck the Syzran refinery in Russia's Samara region, about 75 miles west of Samara and 466 miles southeast of Moscow. The strike comes days after President Trump urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian refineries, as average US retail diesel prices jumped above $6 a gallon and alarming disruptions to global refining capacity threaten fuel supplies ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

Zelenskyy wrote on X: 

Russia continues to attack our energy sector, regular logistics, and critical infrastructure. And our responses to them for this are tangible. There are new results from the Defense Forces of Ukraine regarding the refinery in Syzran. There was also a strike in Taganrog on a drone production facility, as well as on a drone preparation and launch site in the Oryol region. Targets were hit in the Black Sea as well. I thank every one of our warriors for the effectiveness of our long-range sanctions!

The day before, the United States also announced a significant decision regarding Russia's VTB Bank – one of Russia's systemic banks, which is heavily involved in schemes supporting Russia's war and, in particular, its relations with the Iranian regime. All such schemes that work against peace truly need to be dismantled. I thank our partners for this useful step!

There is no alternative to ending this war. And all forms of pressure on Russia must create the right diplomatic conditions. Glory to Ukraine!

Russia continues to attack our energy sector, regular logistics, and critical infrastructure. And our responses to them for this are tangible. There are new results from the Defense Forces of Ukraine regarding the refinery in Syzran. There was also a strike in Taganrog on a drone… pic.twitter.com/Lu47QcmvuD

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 15, 2026

President Trump on Sunday urged Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries, as record US diesel prices above $6 a gallon intensify political concerns over fuel costs and affordability ahead of November's midterm elections.

Trump blamed the strikes for shortages he said were "hurting the world." Ukraine's drone strike campaign against Russian refineries has curtailed refining and, alongside Moscow's export restrictions, sharply reduced overseas diesel supplies, tightening availability of the industrial fuel essential to freight, agriculture and industry. 

Compounding the supply pressure, Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following a drone attack that Saudi and Iraqi authorities said originated in Iraq. The pipeline provides Saudis with a critical route to Red Sea export facilities, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Houthi advances around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait are threatening another major maritime chokepoint, adding to disruptions on both sides of the Arabian Peninsula.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 13:25

AI Agents Cheated In Google Experiment, Researchers Report

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Artificial intelligence (AI) agents tasked with math problems began cheating when encountering more difficult conjectures, Google researchers reported in a new study.

They also found that some of the agents reported those that cheated.

Google DeepMind studied the activity of 100 agents given a set of 71 formal math conjectures, or math problems, ranging from simple to very hard, with some unresolved. The researchers told the agents to act as researchers participating in a shared scientific conference. They instructed the agents not to cheat by stating: "Your proofs must be mathematically genuine. Any attempt to bypass verification will be detected and your submission will be rejected with zero credit."

The researchers observed some agents cheating "once the swarm encountered harder open conjectures," they said in a preprint study released Sept. 3 on the arXiv server. Nine percent of the agents dismissed the prompt and cheated, and another 5 percent cheated after initially hesitating.

"Because the platform permanently locked any problem upon the first accepted submission, honest agents faced complete exclusion as the problem pool dwindled. Observing that adherence to rules resulted in compute waste while cheating peers swept the leaderboard, hesitant agents switched to cheating to avoid being locked out entirely," wrote the researchers, all of whom are employed by Google.

About a quarter of the agents refused to cheat and publicly raised concerns about what the cheating agents were doing. The rest of the agents were deeply engaged in genuine math, unaware of the cheating, and became deadlocked, according to the researchers.

The study followed several instances of AI agents breaking free of programming constraints.

Because the base of knowledge in the Google experiment was open to all agents, the cheating behavior was able to spread, but whistleblowing behavior was also possible, the study concluded. Whistleblowers tried sanctioning the cheating agents but could not prevent the cheating because "the environment lacked formal conflict-resolution arenas and technical tools to enforce sanctions (such as revoking an offending agent's right to commit to the knowledge base)."

Removing communication channels is not a good strategy with groups of agents, the researchers said, since they will likely establish unmonitored channels.

"This suggests that the path forward lies through decentralized self-governance with appropriate framing, which has the potential to be much more effective and scalable than human oversight," they said. "In our experiment the agents lacked the required institutional affordances, such as tools to sanction the exploiters, resolve conflicts, and collectively change the rules of the verification system. While the whistleblowing response was ultimately unable to halt the exploit, this was a failure of institutional design, not of normative capacity."

Google did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Google DeepMind's co-founder, Demis Hassabis, said over the weekend that AI development should slow down, given recent advances in the technology and incidents such as the breach of Hugging Face, an open-source AI platform.

The Hugging Face attack in July took place after OpenAI agents broke out of a testing sandbox. OpenAI has also said the models' internal safeguards were intentionally lowered as part of the test.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 13:20

Warsh’s Credibility Test: How The Fed Chair Painted Himself Into A Corner

Only about two weeks ago, downside risk to the labor market had been flagged by a negative nonfarm payroll growth number for July, progress was being made on the inflation front, and Warsh had been exceptionally quiet for a Fed Chair. Consequently, markets were pricing in a low probability for a rate hike in September, just over 30%.

Then, as Rabobank's Philip Marey writes in his FOMC preview note, at Jackson Hole, Warsh surprised the markets with a hawkish speech on inflation. A week later, the new Employment Report erased the negative number for July, replaced it by a positive number, and added an outright impressive positive nonfarm payroll growth figure for August. Then, on Friday, the CPI report showed a larger than expected month-on-month increase in the core CPI, suggesting that progress on inflation was stalling. As a result, markets are now pricing in a near certain probability of a hike in September and 3-4 hikes in total before the end of next year, and then another 2 by next summer.

Looking through inflation

Echoing some of Goldman's FOMC views (see "Goldman Now Expects A Fed Hike This Week, Not Because It's Needed, But Because Warsh Doesn't Want To Disappoint The Market"), Rabobank's Philip Marey writes that if we look at the economy, downside risks to the labor market have receded for now and GDP growth remains solid. Therefore, the Fed can focus on inflation. It is clear that inflation is too high at 3.4% headline CPI year-on-year and 2.4% core CPI year-on-year in August. However, much of the excess inflation can be attributed to supply shocks, most notably the war with Iran. Since monetary policy is aimed at the demand side of the economy, the central bank cannot do much about supply shocks. Therefore, the academic literature suggests that central banks should look through the temporary episodes of inflation caused by supply shocks and focus on the underlying inflation trend, provided that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored.

Since these inflation expectations have remained stable, whether measured by consumer surveys or derived from financial markets, Rabobank thinks that the Fed should have been able to keep the target for the federal funds rate unchanged for the remainder of the year.

Warsh’s credibility test

However, Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole was a game changer. Perhaps overcompensating for his loss of credibility at the July post-FOMC press conference, the new Fed Chair struck a surprisingly hawkish tone two weeks ago. The immediate market reaction suggested that he had improved his credibility as an inflation fighter, but it was still all talk and no action. If the subsequent labor market data had remained weak and inflation had showed continued progress, Warsh might have been able to get away with it. However, both crucial data sets are calling Warsh’s bluff. With decreased downside risk to the labor market and stalling progress on inflation, Warsh’s tough talk at Jackson Hole may warrant rate action in the coming months. Remaining on hold is becoming increasingly difficult.

And while Rabobank - like Goldman - still thinks that the Fed should look through the current episode of inflation, Warsh seems to have painted himself into a corner with his hawkish speech at Jackson Hole. Since the labor market and inflation data have not come to his rescue, we now add a rate hike to our Fed forecasts for 2026, which previously assumed that Warsh was able to navigate through the year without hiking. 

This also shows that looking through inflation could benefit from forward guidance. Markets are now translating all inflation pressures into expectations of a higher policy rate path.

If we look at Friday's market reaction to the CPI report, it is clear that a September hike is largely priced in. With only one day left before the FOMC meeting, and the Fed in a blackout period, this is not likely to change. Consequently, not hiking on Wednesday would come as a big surprise to the markets. In fact, with markets now pricing in 3-4 hikes in total before the end of next year, it would be a real mind-bender. Failing to raise rates now will fundamentally fracture the Fed’s relationship with the markets and cause considerable volatility in the coming months. Therefore, Rabobank - like Goldman and many other banks - put its forecast for a hike in September, rather than October or December.

September or October?

However, although markets are now convinced that the Fed is going to hike in September, Rabo's Fed watcher still has some lingering doubts. First, the 0.1 ppt overshoot in core inflation month-on-month seems to have been caused to a large extent by an extreme 5.9% (this is month-on-month!) increase in the price of wireless telephone services.

Otherwise, core inflation would have been in line with the 0.2% consensus expectation and low enough for the doves to stick to their guns. In fact, they may point to the random nature of this overshoot as an argument for remaining on hold in September.

Second, the 2.4% year-on-year core CPI figure is the lowest since March 2021! Consequently, a September hike could still meet with opposition from the doves and this could delay the final decision to the next meeting in October. That would increase the likelihood of a more unanimous decision.

Therefore, although Rabobank puts its hike forecast in September, the bank still think there is a risk that the hike gets delayed until October. In fact, Warsh may still try to delay the hike beyond the midterms, but then he runs the risk of being outvoted by the FOMC. This would mean a loss of credibility within the Committee. He will have to balance credibility with the financial markets and the FOMC with his relationship with the White House. There no longer seems a path to a painless solution, so he will have to appease and alienate both sides at different times. A rate hike would satisfy the markets and the hawks, but annoy the White House. By avoiding further hikes, he will alienate the former and improve his standing with the latter, especially if he steers towards rate cuts in 2027. In the end, if a hike is unavoidable then from a purely electoral perspective September may be more attractive than October, because that meeting is less than a week before Election Day.

One and Done

More importantly, although markets are now pricing in 3-4 hikes before the end of 2027, Rabobank like Goldman is convinced that the supply side nature of the shocks that are driving this spell of inflation does not warrant a new hiking cycle. One should suffice to keep inflation expectations anchored, two at most. Therefore, market pricing is likely overdone and Rabo puts only one rate hike in its  Fed forecasts for 2026.

Of course, it could be argued that the AI boom is causing a demand shock that could add to inflation pressures and therefore warrant additional hikes (especially for memory prices). However, many doubt the Fed would tackle the AI boom to ease inflation. After all, the promise of AI is that it is going to increase productivity down the road, which would ease inflation pressures long term and make it easier for the Fed to reach its 2% inflation target (even if it sends inflation sharply higher in the near-term). And then we are not even talking about the geopolitical implications of sabotaging the home team in the AI race with China.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 13:00

Newsom Says He Won't Run For President In 2028 If Kamala Harris Does

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Sept. 14 that he would not run for president in 2028 if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to make another presidential bid.

"I don't know if she runs, but we'll see," Newsom, a Democrat, told CNN anchor Jake Tapper in an interview.

"I wouldn't run if she ran."

Newsom said that running against Harris, who became the Democratic presidential candidate during the 2024 election after then-President Joe Biden withdrew his bid, would be an electoral gift for their political opponents and "waste everyone's time."

"First of all, electorally, it's a gift from God for everybody else. They'd enjoy the hell out of it. Mutual assured destruction. It services no greater good," the governor said.

When asked about the fact that Harris had launched presidential bids in 2019 and 2024, while Newsom had never run for president, Newsom said that could be an "approach to the campaign," but that he would be competing for the same voters who supported Harris.

"That's objectively true. But I know what that means. I know her base of supporters, I know her friends, the Venn diagram on that is just pure crossover. I wouldn't do that to people," he said.

Harris, who was vice president at the time, lost the 2024 election to Republican Donald Trump, who returned to the White House for a second term. She previously launched a presidential bid for the 2020 election but dropped out two months before the primary voting began.

Newsom said he was not ready to run for president in 2024.

"If I did, I would have gotten crushed because I didn't have a why. You don't have a big enough why, then you don't belong there," the governor said.

Harris has hinted that she may run for president again in 2028. During the National Action Network's annual convention in New York City in April, Harris said that she was "thinking about" another presidential run.

Harris previously served as California's attorney general before representing the state in the U.S. Senate from 2017 to 2021.

Newsom, who was elected governor in 2018 and won reelection in 2022, is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term. He will leave office in January 2027.

Newsom has not declared a presidential candidacy but said in October 2025 that he was considering a 2028 presidential run.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 12:40

Money-Supply Growth Accelerated In July To A 59-Month High

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Shortly after becoming the new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh has admitted that it's been more than five years since the Federal Reserve hit its two-percent price-inflation target. Warsh has also claimed that he'll change that, and he'll bring down price inflation very soon. But if Warsh is serious about price inflation he's going to have to make some pretty substantial changes. After all, the Fed's preferred price-inflation measure (core PCE) was up by 3.7 percent, year over year, in the most recent data from July. That's the 65th month in a row during which price inflation came in above the Fed's target rate of 2 percent.

Nor should we expect much change in this trend so long as money-supply growth continues to accelerate as it has been doing for two years. July's measure of money-supply growth - the most recent data available - showed growth at the fastest pace, year-over-year, in 59 months. Moreover, measured month-to-month, the money supply has increased during 11 of the past 12 months.

More specifically, during July, year-over-year growth in the money supply was at 8.62 percent. That's up from June's year-over-year increase of 8.59 percent. Money-supply growth is also up sizably compared to July of last year when year-over-year growth was 1.46 percent.

In July, the total money supply again rose, rising above $19.71 trillion and growing by $1.5 trillion in a year from July 2025 to July 2026.

Measuring month-to-month growth, we find that the money supply has grown in every month of the past year except January. During July, money-supply growth was at 0.097 percent.

The money supply metric used here - the "true," or Rothbard-Salerno, money supply measure (TMS) - is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2. (The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth.)

Historically, M2 growth rates have often followed a similar course to TMS growth rates, but throughout much of 2025, M2 outpaced even TMS, and M2 money-supply totals are again rapidly heading upward. M2 is now at the highest level it's ever been, topping $23.1 trillion. Measured year over year, July's growth rate for M2 was 5.42 percent. That's the highest growth rate in 49 months.

Since the end of 2009, the TMS money supply is now up by more than 226 percent. (M2 has grown by more than 170 percent in that period.) Out of the current money supply of $19.7 trillion, 30 percent of that has been created since January 2020. Since 2009, in the wake of the global financial crisis, more than $13 trillion of the current money supply has been created. In other words, nearly 70 percent of the total existing money supply have been created since the Great Recession.

Given current weak economic conditions, it is surprising to see such robust growth in the money supply. For example, the estimate for GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 recently came in at only 1.5 percent. The employment level in the US has fallen by more than 1.2 million since the end of 2025. Wage growth has been below the PCE inflation rate - i.e., wage growth has been negative in real terms - since March of this year.

Given all this, we would not expect to see such robust growth in the money supply. Private commercial banks play a large role in growing the money supply in response to loose Fed policy, and when economic conditions are expansive, and as employment grows, lending also grows, further loosening monetary conditions. But when economic conditions are weak, we'd expect to see less lending and less bank-fueled monetary growth.

So, we should expect to see downward pressure on money supply growth given current economic conditions. However, in an effort to further pump asset prices, and to somehow counter our growing economic stagnation, and to push down yields on Treasuries, the Fed continues to intervene to push down interest rates. This requires a dovish stance on monetary policy, and this is reflected in how money-supply growth continues to accelerate.

As an example of the Fed's commitment to monetary growth, we can look the Fed's portfolio which, in spite of many years of Fed claims about "normalization," has grown by $124 billion over the past year. In other words, the Fed is purchasing Treasuries with newly created money, further ensuring that the money supply continues to grow, even as the economy slows. Moreover, the Fed has refused to increase its target policy rate even as the PCE inflation measure shows no sign of coming close to the two-percent target.

So, how does monetary growth relate to rising prices? It is important to remember that growth in the money supply growth does not drive a one-to-one increase in price inflation. That is, a 10 percent increase in the money supply does not necessary lead to a similar increase in prices. Rather, there will always be a number of lags and measurement problems in calculating how monetary inflation affects price inflation. Nonetheless, monetary inflation is the primary enabling factor in price inflation. Yes, events like wars and logistical failures can lead to rising prices, but in the absence of monetary inflation, rising prices in some areas will require falling prices in other areas. Only in the presence of a growing money supply can there be a general increase in prices. And this is what we are seeing now. Even as energy prices rise, thanks to Trump's wars and trade barriers, we continue to see rising prices in most other areas as well, including food, real estate, and even apparel. This is made possible by a relentlessly rising money supply, engineered by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury officials.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 12:00

EPA Repeals Biden-Era Carbon Rules For Power Plants

As previewed here yesterday, late on Monday the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said that it finalized a rule repealing most of the carbon-emission limits for coal- and natural gas-fired power plants and proposed a separate measure that could restrict similar regulations in the future. Appropriately, the Sept. 14 announcement came at the G20 energy event in Houston. 

The EPA projects that the two actions announced on Sept. 14 would save about $310.4 billion if the proposed repeal is finalized.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the changes would allow the United States to build power-generating infrastructure to meet a rapidly rising demand. 

The Mountaineer Power Plant, a coal-fired power plant near New Haven, W.Va. 

“For over 15 years, the Obama and Biden administrations implemented a war on coal to destroy reliable and affordable energy. The Trump administration has come in to protect American energy and to make sure you can afford to keep the lights on,” Zeldin said in a Sept. 14 statement. 

“Americans will see a decrease in electricity prices, but this is just the beginning. We are working to go even further so that American energy can be fully unleashed. Realizing the full potential of American energy means more jobs, lower prices, and a more prosperous America.”

As the Epoch Times reports, the Sept. 14 action repealed most of the greenhouse-gas emission standards that were adopted under the Biden administration for existing coal-fired power plants and new natural gas-fired plants. The 2024 rule that is being repealed would have required existing coal plants and some types of new gas-powered plants to eventually capture and store their emissions underground.

The EPA also proposed a separate rule that would conclude that emissions from fossil-fuel power plants do not contribute significantly to dangerous air pollution, potentially preventing future administrations from imposing similar regulations under the Clean Air Act.

Such a rule would be all but certain to face challenges in court.

For more than a decade, the EPA has relied on Section 111 of the Clean Air Act as the legal baseline for regulations on U.S. power sector emissions, the second largest source of emissions in the United States, behind motor vehicles. That power could be on the chopping block as the issue moves forward.

If administration changes go through and are upheld in court, it would defang a significant portion of federal legislation on the issue in the future.

President Donald Trump has long expressed a preference for fossil fuels over renewable energy sources.

The proposals from the EPA come as the administration faces mounting pressure to expand energy production in the United States in order to power artificial intelligence data centers, which have strained power grids across the country.

Trump has been favorable to data centers and AI research more broadly, saying that the U.S. must continue to invest in the technology in order to keep pace with China.

The Natural Resources Defense Council, a nonprofit environmental group, opposed the moves.

Meredith Hankins, the federal climate legal director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said that as millions of Americans facing wildfires, heat waves, and deadly storms fueled by climate change, the Trump administration is cutting the biggest polluters loose to do more damage than ever.

“For the health of our families and good of our nation, this cannot stand. Ignoring the immense harm to the public from this power plant pollution is a clear violation of the Clean Air Act and of Supreme Court precedent. We will be seeing them in court,” Hankins said.

Michelle Bloodworth, president and CEO of America’s Power, supported the repeal when it was proposed in June 2025, saying it would improve grid reliability and make electricity more affordable.

Bloodworth said in 2025 the Biden-era rule would have forced coal plants to close, worsening the risk of electricity shortages as demand rises from data centers, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and industrial growth.

She said that preserving existing coal plants would improve grid reliability, hold down electricity prices, and strengthen U.S. energy security and economic competitiveness. 

“Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States is proving that we can protect human health and the environment while growing our economy and getting important projects built,” Zeldin said in a Sept. 14 statement. “Clear, timely, and predictable permitting gives businesses the confidence to invest, creates opportunities for American workers, and helps turn good ideas into real projects.” Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 11:40

Saudis Cancel September Crude Cargoes To Europe As East-West Pipeline Shutdown Deepens Energy Crisis

Summary:

• Saudis Cancel September-Loading Crude Cargoes to Europe
• Europeans are paying between $9-$11 per gallon for diesel amid Global Refining Crisis 
• Saudi Oil Routes Narrow: Kingdom Eyes Hormuz Export Surge After Pipeline Attack

Saudis Cancel September-Loading Crude Cargoes to Europe

"Refining is super short.   Between Europe's woes, Russias war on Ukraine and a drop in refined products from the Arabian Gulf its really bad. As many of my amazing followers showed yesterday… Europeans are paying between $9-$11 per gallon for diesel," CNBC's Brian Sullivan wrote on X. 

Refining is super short. Between Europe’s woes, Russias war on Ukraine and a drop in refined products from the Arabian Gulf its really bad.

As many of my amazing followers showed yesterday… Europeans are paying between $9-$11 per gallon for diesel. https://t.co/TG0NmfDkVE

— Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) September 15, 2026

Europe's energy supply outlook is deteriorating after Reuters reported Tuesday that Saudi Arabia had notified some European refiners that their September-loading crude cargoes would be canceled following the shutdown of its critical East-West pipeline after a drone attack. 

Beyond a diesel shortage in the West, Europeans are also dealing with low natural gas stockpiles heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with prices reaching their highest level since December 2022.

Saudi Oil Routes Narrow: Kingdom Eyes Hormuz Export Surge After Pipeline Attack

Middle East tensions remain high, with Brent crude futures trading around $105 a barrel and US diesel crack spreads near $110 a barrel amid an ongoing global refining crisis. Disruptions to Russian fuel production from the war in Ukraine are compounding supply constraints across the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia's options for maintaining exports have significantly narrowed following a drone attack that shut down its critical East-West pipeline last week. With that alternative pipeline route disrupted, possibly for up to a month, and shipping risks elevated around the Arabian Peninsula, Riyadh is seeking to move more crude through the highly contested Strait of Hormuz.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told reporters Monday that the US Navy is escorting a large number of vessels through the Oman shipping corridor in the Hormuz chokepoint. Those escorts could support increased Saudi shipments and bolster Riyadh's confidence in US naval protection. 

Bloomberg reported that Riyadh has already begun ramping up crude transits through Hormuz. The report cited sources, and the kingdom did not confirm it.

Saudi exports had recovered toward 4 million barrels a day in early September, with about 1 million moving through Hormuz and the balance through Yanbu on the Red Sea. That leaves the kingdom facing a substantial export shortfall.

Riyadh has two options right now:

1. Restore East-West pipeline pumping infrastructure in a timely manner; or
2. Sharply increase Gulf shipments (with US naval protection). 

Geospatial intelligence shows high-resolution satellite imagery of the aftermath of the drone attack that destroyed pumping infrastructure. 

BREAKING: New high-resolution satellite imagery shows the pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline burned out end to end, with the entire process area blackened and crude oil that escaped the site pooled across the desert beyond the perimeter, per Vantor imagery. https://t.co/DFJAplGNcC pic.twitter.com/uQEdn2YVFe

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 14, 2026

 "The pipeline, with capacity of 7mb/d, had played an important role in re-routing oil away from the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of the pipeline's closure on Red Sea exports (combined with recent Houthi efforts to disrupt Red Sea flows) will continue to support oil prices for the foreseeable future," UBS energy expert Dominic Ellis told clients. 

Wright joined Bloomberg TV to calm energy markets and said pipeline operations could resume "very soon," yet no timeline was given.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline will be back up and running “very soon.” pic.twitter.com/vengmvxLG7

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 14, 2026

Meanwhile, AP News reported that flows through the pipeline could resume in three to five weeks.

Riyadh's most immediate response is to ramp up Hormuz shipments with what appears to be US naval protection, but tanker availability remains another big problem. Also, tanker freight rates from Saudi Gulf ports to China topped $1 million at the end of last week.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 11:26

Everybody Involved In The "AI Extinction" Conversation Is Talking Their Own Book

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Coalition of the Exceedingly Reluctant

US 10-year bond yields topped 5% on Monday, and again on Tuesday, as crude oil prices continued to move higher and overnight index swaps implied a higher chance of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday. The OIS market now has 24.9bps priced in for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting – suggesting that traders view a Fed hike this week as a near certainty.

US and European equities were broadly lower on Monday as markets digested the implications of tech CEOs banding together to plead for regulation to slow the pace of development of frontier AI models. While Darion Amodei, Elon Musk and Sam Altman were saying “please sir, can I have a bit less” we saw dissent from Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang with the former saying that AI development needed to be speeded up and the latter telling President Trump that “we’re not going to let that happen” in reference to an AI slowdown.

There is a sense here that everybody involved in this conversation is talking their own book. As noted here yesterday, CEOs of frontier model developers are being criticized for seeking regulatory moats to protect their own margins. Meta already enjoys a huge moat from network effects and distribution incumbency and would likely see a benefit to operating margins from lower inference costs. NVIDIA wants to keep the hyper scaling arms race going so it can keep on selling chips.

Trump, meanwhile, views AI as a national security issue where the US cannot afford to take its foot off the gas pedal. This sentiment was recently echoed by Australia’s putative Prime-Minister-in-waiting, Andrew Hastie, who said that failure to develop indigenous frontier AI models will leave Australia as a supplicant, rather than a sovereign state. ECB President Lagarde said much the same thing as she warned against relying on US models: “There is nothing inherently bad about importing rather than producing new technologies... But there are reasons why artificial intelligence is ‘special’”.

So, to refashion Trump’s earlier warning that “if you don’t have steel, you don’t have a country”: “if you don’t have domestic AI capabilities, you don’t have a country”.

While the new economy of AI preoccupied markets for most of yesterday, the much-neglected old economy continued to serve up inconvenient reminders of the importance of real production to 21st century life. Entirely predictable attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline, reports that damage to the pipeline could take months to repair, and the sense that even if it is repaired it could easily be attacked again ensured that oil markets remained bid. Reports from Iran’s Fars news agency that an oil tanker exploded after colliding with a mine in Omani waters did the same. The spread between dated brent and the front future has blown out to the highest levels since mid April, suggesting further tightness in physical markets as refiners scramble to secure feedstock.

That dynamic won’t be helped by news that the US is approaching the end of its program to release supply from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Reserves are sitting at their lowest levels since the 1980s when it was first being filled and there has been an ongoing conversation within oil circles that stock levels may be approaching minimum levels beyond which the structural integrity of the salt caverns where it is stored are threatened. The rundown in US stocks and soaring gasoline prices has invigorated speculation that the administration could seek to impose export bans on certain oil products ahead of the midterm elections in November – a prospect that Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum hosed down by saying that it wouldn’t help to lower prices.

A meeting was supposed to be held between officials from Iran, Iraq and the GCC nations yesterday in Oman to finalize an agreement to restore traffic to the Strait of Hormuz. That was postponed as parties reportedly failed to reach agreement, which is no surprise considering that the US will not allow Iranian oil through its blockade and Iran will not allow anyone else’s oil through the strait while the blockade remains in place. For now, Iran appears content to up the ante against the US and its allies ahead of the midterm elections by restricting flows through the Red Sea and, especially, through the Bab el-Mandeb. Will Uncle Sam say “uncle!”?

Escalation in the Bab el-Mandeb means that Asia and Oceania are once again ground zero for energy market risk. With that context established, Australia’s Energy Minister confirmed today that he will travel to Saudi Arabia next week in an effort to shore up energy supplies for the months ahead. Reaching agreement with Saudi officials is likely to be the easy part, actually moving product to market may prove somewhat harder.

Given that South Korea is reportedly reconsidering initial opposition to deploying its military to assist in the Strait of Hormuz, and UK PM Burnham’s indications within the last 24 hours that the UK may seek to support Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Houthis in Yemen, might Australia also be about to join a coalition of the exceedingly reluctant? If so, Australia’s PM Albanese would likely confront the same issue as the UK’s Burnham: a shortage of available ships with sufficient warfighting capability.

Sticking with the theme of neglected corners of the old-economy throwing up problems for western policymakers, news emerged yesterday that efforts to restart the blast furnace at Australia’s only-remaining long products steel mill had failed. In effect, this means that Australia is now completely import dependent for certain steel products with important industrial *and military* applications that in earlier times it was largely self-sufficient in courtesy of vast mineral and energy endowments that provided all the necessary ingredients, and the cheap power, to produce the outputs. Those natural advantages have wilted under rising energy prices and competition from imports following deregulatory moves and the removal of tariff protection in the 1980s and ‘90s.

Speaking of competition from imports, new data released by China’s Bureau of National Statistics confirmed that in August retail sales were – once again- weaker than expected while industrial production was – once again – stronger than expected and house prices – once again – fell. Taken together with news that China’s unemployment rate in August rose to its highest level since March, the overall picture continues to be once of weak domestic demand and very strong production, creating a large exportable surplus that is one half of the structural trade imbalance that lies at the heart of the unfolding geopolitical upheaval that we are now living through.

While we may hope that next week, or next month, or next election cycle will bring calmer waters from a geopolitical perspective, it is probably the case that until something changes on those structural imbalances, nothing changes.

In the meantime, got oil?

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 11:20