Heading out the door for the Labor Day weekend, with blue skies and 85° temperatures, I had to share a chart. It’s from the San Francisco Federal Reserve (via Torsten Slok of Apollo) and shows Wall Street expectations for Federal Reserve rate action.

It’s the perfect explainer for why forecasts tend to be so inaccurate.

As you can see, as recently as February 2026, market participants expected a series of ongoing rate hikes—a simple extrapolation from the prior trend.

Then the war began sending food and energy prices higher.

But the Middle Eastern adventure was promised to be short and indeed already over, so the next set of expectations were flat. A few months later, the “short military operation” turned into a war; inflation remained sticky, and expectations were for modestly higher rates.

Now we are six months into a war that shows no signs of ending, voters are angry, and a bad actor is in control of the Strait of Hormuz, with the likelihood of an ongoing tax on Middle Eastern oil. Once again, expectations were adjusted upwards, and now we see “higher for longer” as the consensus.

Unless, of course, something else unanticipated occurs…

Forecasts are for the most part simple extrapolations of the status quo or the current trend; they also fail to include random or unanticipated events – the kind that happens all the time in the economy, markets, and geopolitics.

When you stumble across a forecast that turned out to be more or less correct, it usually means nothing happened, and the extrapolation proved to be randomly correct.1 

But most of the time, $h*t happens: wars break out, Pandemics occur, terror attacks happen, new technology comes along and fails or succeeds, and governments fail to fund their annual budgets or wildly overspend their fiscal limits.

The parade of endless random events derails even the most thoughtful of predictions. A year is simply too short a time to guarantee that the dominant secular trend asserts itself, and too long a period to avoid random events.

 

 

 

Previously:
The Folly of Forecasting (June 7, 2005)

Nobody Knows Anything (Archive)

 

 

Source:
Productivity -Driven Growth Confronts Elevated Inflation
Huiyu Li
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, September 3, 2026

 

__________

1. Please note that I said randomly correct — that is not he same as being prescient.

 

The post Nobody Knows Anything, Rate Expectations Edition appeared first on The Big Picture.

Chinese Rare-Earth Suppliers Halt US Shipments As Decoupling Fears Surge

The scenario we viewed as inevitable appears to be materializing, validating our decision to intensify coverage of the US-China decoupling theme and the Western-aligned miners positioned to supply the West if Beijing further weaponizes critical material exports, as it has throughout the Trump 2.0 era.

A Reuters report on Friday morning revealed that some Chinese rare-earth suppliers are refusing to ship material to US customers, citing fear of retaliation from Beijing.

The report continued:

A handful of Chinese suppliers have refused to ship rare earths to U.S. companies since early August when China imposed sanctions on the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA), a U.S. supply chain monitor, a separate source with direct knowledge of the situation said.

With China deploying its own trade compliance weapons, the companies were wary of punishment from Beijing for complying with the due diligence framework of the Responsible Minerals Initiative (RMI), a global mineral supply chain audit programme connected with the RBA, the source said.

Other Chinese rare earths companies had already stopped shipments to the U.S. to avoid entanglement in geopolitics in recent months, two other sources familiar with the trade said.

One cited four instances where Chinese firms declined to send material for fear it could be resold to banned users.

The exact number of blocked suppliers and shipments remains unknown, and that ambiguity is itself part of Beijing's asymmetric leverage campaign against the US.

China does not need to announce a formal trade embargo to choke critical material flows. Export controls, licensing delays, and the threat of regulatory retaliation can halt shipments to US importers almost overnight.

Really, Beijing retains a kill switch inside US defense, aerospace, semiconductor, and energy supply chains, forcing companies to scramble for substitutes only after supplies have collapsed.

That's why we've sounded the alarm in recent weeks that the decoupling theme should be top of mind for Wall Street desks, with our coverage focused on tungsten and germanium, both of which have been restricted from export to the US and are colliding with a rearmament cycle in the West.

Here's what we've reported over the last few weeks leading up to the Reuters headline this morning:

1. The AI Boom Runs On Tungsten, But Global Supplies Are "Running On Empty"
2. US Tungsten Scrap Export Ban Takes Effect As Global Supply Crisis Deepens
3. What Happens When A Metal The West Can't Live Without Runs Short
4. The West's Answer To Break China's Tungsten Stranglehold Before Historic Rearmament Cycle Ramps
5. China's Tungsten Chokehold Turns Almonty Into a Critical-Metal Lifeline
6. China's Record Ship Swarm Around Taiwan Sends Decoupling Alarm To Wall Street

China's tungsten export restrictions have sent European prices soaring...

Late last month, the US Commerce Department halted exports of tungsten scrap and shredded battery material in a defensive move to retain scarce supplies inside the country. The move merely shows how rapidly Washington is shifting from the free-trade status quo toward resource security as domestic supplies dwindle and an urgent race emerges across the West to procure new ex-China supplies.

The Sino-US bilateral relationship deteriorated yet again this week after Beijing derailed the G20 joint communiqué over a single phrase, "non-market," only weeks after the Trump administration sanctioned Chinese entities linked to Iran.

All eyes now turn to the Trump-Xi meeting in Washington later this month.

The decoupling theme should be top of mind on Wall Street as China restricts critical-material flows to the West. These materials are essential building blocks not only for next year's rearmament supercycle but also for AI, reindustrialization trends, efforts to power up America, and even physical AI.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 12:35

Russia Tries To Assassinate Ukraine's SBU Chief With Unprecedented Drone Attack On Kyiv HQ

The Kremlin has long previewed that its next escalation step against Ukraine would be to start attacking 'decision-making centers', or headquarters and government buildings. That moment has clearly begun and is now in an active phase, also as strikes ramp up on the key southern port of Odesa, as well as on Ukraine-linked cargo and other shipping. On Friday a Russian drone slammed into the headquarters of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) in central Kyiv.

The SBU is the country's top domestic security and intelligence service - somewhat akin to the FBI in America. It primarily oversees counterintelligence, counterterrorism, espionage investigations, as well as engages in some law-enforcement functions, especially concerning top level crime including among government officials. It has been the mastermind behind multiple high-level deadly and destructive attacks on Russia.

Drone targeted SBU chief at around 3:30pm local, via pravda.com.ua

President Zelensky soon after the attack announced and confirmed that the SBU's central building on Volodymyrska Street, in the heart of iconic downtown near St. Sophia Cathedral, was struck. Flames and smoke have been seen billowing high over the high-secure central district.

"I spoke with the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Oleksandr Poklad. Unfortunately, a Russian drone struck the central building of the Security Service of Ukraine on Volodymyrska Street in Kyiv, across from St. Sophia Cathedral," Zelensky said.

"The drone was aimed directly at the office of the Head of the Security Service in that building," he added. Zelensky has ordered his military to mount a "tangible response and, where possible, one that mirrors this strike, to the Russians once everything is ready. Our military will support this response."

If accurate, this sends an alarming and resounding message - that not only is Moscow now willing to directly target top headquarters buildings, but that it's ready to assassinate intelligence directors. 

President Zelensky said the drone had precisely targeted the office of the head of the SBU service, Oleksandr Poklad, but he had survived the attack —The Times

Big smoke cloud in drone strike aftermath targeting security HQ. ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

European media reports of the immediate aftermath, "Zelenskyy said emergency services were attending the scene. There was no immediate information on casualties."

A large explosion was widely heard among bystanders during a mid-afternoon air raid siren in the capital city, after which Mayor Vitali Klitschko initially reported a fire and said emergency crews were headed to the scene. Several drones had been inbound during the attack incident.

According to some of the latest reporting via CNN:

The daytime strike - the first time the SBU building has been hit in the four-and-a-half year conflict - came after days of near continuous aerial assaults by Russia on the Ukrainian capital.

Authorities said 12 people were injured in the attack and that emergency services were at the scene.

⚡️ BREAKING: Attempted assassination of the head of Ukraine’s intelligence service

Russian Shahed drone strikes the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) building in Kyiv.

President Zelenskyy said the following:

“The drone was directed straight at the office of the head of the SBU… pic.twitter.com/DRax4RI0Kb

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 4, 2026

This comes after more than a week of consecutive nightly drone and missile attacks on the capital, as Russia indicates it is 'repaying' Ukraine for its own constant long-range drone attacks which have wreaked havoc on oil refineries and industrial sites this summer.

"At least 53 people have been killed and 134 injured in Kyiv city and the wider Kyiv region since the start of these near non-stop attacks last month," CNN also notes.

Unprecedented: Downtown SBU headquarters on fire...

A Russian drone hit Ukraine's SBU headquarters in Kyiv, Zelensky says. pic.twitter.com/ZevaXpLbEV

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 4, 2026

This even could serve as the catalyst that gets Zelensky's Western backers to rush more anti-air missiles and systems - such as the Patriot - to Ukraine. "It is rare for government buildings in central Kyiv to be reached by Russian strikes, especially in broad daylight," The Guardian underscores. "The explosion from the hit on the SBU building could be heard several from several blocks away."

One thing is clear: the gloves are indeed coming off. And just as Trump may be trying to de-escalate the Iran war ahead of November midterms in the US, the Russia-Ukraine war just massively escalated past a likely point of no return.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 12:15

US Diesel Pump Prices Hit Record As Global Refined-Products Crisis Threatens Industrial Economy

Goldman explained this week that Gulf oil exports had recovered to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, with the rise of dark tanker transits obscuring some flows from conventional tracking via the Automatic Identification System (AIS). Yet headline crude volumes don't tell the entire story. As we have repeatedly noted, crude itself does not keep the industrial economy humming. Diesel does.

US RETAIL DIESEL PRICES ADVANCE TO RECORD HIGH, AAA DATA SHOWS https://t.co/LjXZw8fxYR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 4, 2026

Make no mistake: There is a refined-products crisis because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian one-way drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. That tightening in physical markets, especially for diesel, was evident on Thursday, when US retail pump prices reached a record high.

US retail diesel prices surged to a record $5.85 per gallon on Thursday, according to new data from AAA, surpassing the previous peak reached in June 2022.

Unlike crude oil, diesel is the fuel that keeps the industrial economy moving: It powers trucks, construction equipment, tractors, generators, and home-heating systems. The spike threatens to unleash another wave of energy-driven inflation just as global supplies tighten ahead of the Northern Hemisphere's harvest and heating seasons.

Bloomberg's NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread, tracked on the Bloomberg Terminal as the HOCL1 Index, breached $100 per barrel early Tuesday before surging to $108 early Wednesday. It was trading at $99 early Friday morning.

President Trump urged US refiners earlier this week to increase production and lower gasoline and diesel prices, but the industry has limited spare capacity. Many facilities are already operating near, or even above, their stated maximum processing rates following a summer production surge.

Despite the recovery in tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz, TotalEnergies SE head Patrick Pouyanne recently said there wasn't a "single tanker of products" moving out of the waterway.

Again, the energy crisis is in the refined-products complex.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 12:00

"We Have The Receipts": Bartiromo Denies Fox Firing

Update (1155ET): New details are rolling in about the Bartiromo situation - as the anchor is denying reports that she was fired from the station. According to The Hollywood Reporter: 

Bartiromo, who is now repped by Bryan Freedman, who recently repped Justin Baldoni, as well as journalists Don Lemon and Chris Cuomo after their dramatic exits from CNN as well as Tucker Carlson’s exit from Fox, denies that she was fired and further claims that she is “still employed by Fox.” Freedman suggests they may pursue the matter in court. 

“For many years, Maria Bartiromo hosted three number-one-rated television shows on Fox channels. She has been, without question,  one of the hardest-working journalists throughout her award-winning career,” Freedman said in a statement to The Hollywood Reporter.

"The irresponsible reports that have been published stating that Maria Bartiromo was fired or is no longer an employee of Fox are absolutely and unequivocally false. Make no mistake, we have the receipts and witnesses and they will come out whether through the courthouse or otherwise. Those reporting her firing or the incredulous facts supporting that fiction have exhibited a complete and utter reckless disregard for the truth," he continued.

* * *

Maria Bartiromo was not fired for pushing claims about the 2020 election - she was fired for revealing that Fox had told its own staff not to talk about it. Fox News Media announced on Thursday it had parted ways with the anchor effective immediately after more than twelve years, thanking her for her work and giving no reason. 

The guidance at the center of it went out in July, after President Donald Trump used a prime-time address to tie China to the 2020 result. Fox Business management privately instructed senior staff not to lend credibility to the claims, and killed a China-and-2020 story Bartiromo wanted to pursue. The sensitivity stemmed from legal concerns - Fox paid Dominion Voting Systems $787.5 million in 2023 over 2020 election coverage, and Smartmatic's $2.7 billion claim is still outstanding, with Bartiromo named in both.

Fox did not catch the leak itself. Puck's Dylan Byers reported that Bartiromo took a screenshot of that guidance and sent it to senior White House officials, which Fox executives learned of after receiving a call from the White House.

In a terse statement, Fox News said Bartiromo is no longer with the company, effective immediately and thanked her for her work, while wishing her well in her next chapter.

Status's Oliver Darcy, who built his brand at CNN by pushing censorship campaigns against conservative media, was first to report that Bartiromo leaked internal guidance after Fox Business management privately directed senior staff not to lend credibility to claims President Donald Trump made in a July address regarding China's interference in the 2020 election.

However, a new report alleges that Bartiromo was in FOX's crosshairs for several reasons beyond the alleged leak.

Mediaite reports:

According to a source familiar with the matter, sharing the memo about Trump's July comments was "not the only reason" that led to her abrupt defenestration.

The source confirmed that it was "a confluence of factors," including Fox's whopping $787.5 million settlement it had to pay to Dominion Voting Systems in 2023 over 2020 election fraud claims Fox had aired, plus another similar lawsuit from Smartmatic "still hanging out there." Bartiromo was among the main on-air personalities cited in these lawsuits and has continued to periodically peddle in election denialism. A Fox News media spokesperson told Mediaite that the move was simply a "business decision" and declined further comment.

Comments Kevin O'Leary made on a May 11 episode of Mornings With Maria also factored in, the source said, in which the Shark Tank star accused nonprofit organizations that opposed his data center project in Utah of being secret agents of the Chinese Communist Party.

Trump blasted Fox's decision to sever ties with Bartiromo, calling the host a "true warrior."

"I can't believe Maria Bartiromo is no longer going to have her great show(s) on FoxNews/Business. Three different shows, always number one," the president wrote on Truth Social. "Maria is a total professional, and a true warrior. Her fans, of which there are many, will not be happy. God bless you, Maria!"

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 11:30

Tesla's Cybercab Debut Falls Flat As NHTSA Opens Probe

Tesla’s long awaited Cybercab finally hit the streets of Austin yesterday, and the debut was something of a dud.

For a product Elon Musk has positioned as central to Tesla’s future, the rollout was remarkably subdued. There was no major public livestream with appearance by Musk or traditional press presence, relatively little new information and just 45 Cybercabs registered in Texas as of Thursday. After years of hype surrounding Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions, the event still felt more like a limited demonstration than the beginning of a transportation revolution.

Now federal regulators have thrown a wet blanket over even that modest celebration.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened a review of the Cybercab to determine whether its unusual design complies with federal safety rules, according to the Wall Street Journal.  The two seat vehicle has no steering wheel, pedals or conventional mirrors, putting it outside many of the assumptions baked into decades old automotive regulations.

Tesla says the Cybercab meets all applicable federal standards. NHTSA now wants to inspect the technical data and certification process behind that claim, including Tesla’s determination that certain requirements may not apply to a purpose built autonomous vehicle.

The U.S. generally allows automakers to certify their own vehicles rather than obtaining federal approval before production. NHTSA can then challenge those certifications after vehicles reach public roads, which is essentially what is happening here.

There is also precedent. Regulators previously challenged Amazon owned Zoox after it certified a robotaxi without a steering wheel or pedals. Zoox eventually received an exemption allowing commercial operation under certain restrictions. Tesla has not applied for a similar exemption.

Tesla has installed capacity to produce more than 125,000 Cybercabs annually and eventually hopes to sell them for less than $30,000. Musk has increasingly tied Tesla’s valuation and future to autonomous transportation rather than simply selling electric cars.

NHTSA could ultimately conclude Tesla has done everything correctly. But if regulators disagree, the Cybercab could face required modifications, recalls or additional regulatory hurdles.

Either way, the probe makes an already underwhelming debut even more awkward. Tesla finally got the Cybercab onto public roads after years of promises, only for Washington to immediately start asking whether it should be there in its current form.

Tesla shares are down over 6% this morning (having rolled over at the July highs)...

Analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research put out a note to clients Friday morning that said: "Morgan Stanley set the bar at 25 to 50 Cybercabs on the road, and visibility around pricing, the ability to purchase, and federal exemptions… for the Cybercab event to be a “success”."

He continued: "Tesla delivered 45 registrations, would not say how many were in service, skipped the livestream, kept Musk off the stage, and left the event with no price, no per-mile economics, no purchase button, and no federal exemption on file for a vehicle that legally needs one. When a company stages a launch and then declines to answer the only questions the bulls said mattered, the honest read is not that the story is early — it's that there wasn't one to tell."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 11:15

World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Cuts Treasury Holdings... But It's Not What You Think

The headlines are running rampant this morning as the world's largest (and most transparent) sovereign wealth fund - Norway's Government Pension Fund - has proposed reducing the amount of government bonds in its $2.3 trillion portfolio to boost holdings of riskier debt, with US Treasuries the most affected.

Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the fund, said in a letter sent to the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday and published on its website, that government debt should be cut to 50% of the bond holdings from 70%.

As Bloomberg reports:

With about 30% invested in bonds, the fund had more than $615 billion of fixed-income assets in its portfolio as of June 30, about 59.5% of which were invested in government bonds, according to the latest figures on its website. Adding in government-related bonds, the allocation is 69%.

The proposed reduction in government bonds’ share to 50% would imply a decrease of about $58 billion of such bonds, according to Bloomberg calculations.

While the proposed change implies holdings of US Treasuries would drop by $75 billion, those of Japanese government bonds could increase by $20 billion, Bloomberg analysis shows. Holdings of euro area government bonds are also projected to decrease.

With growing concerns about global government debt levels and rekindled inflation fears due to the Middle East conflict having fueled a recent global bond selloff (pushing yields to multiyear highs around the world), the headlines write themselves... "PANIC!!!".

But...

They are not shrinking US or dollar exposure in any meaningful way.

The same letter says US non-government fixed income (IG corporates, agency MBS, government-related debt) would rise from 16.2% to 27.6% of the bond index.

Dollar weight in the bond benchmark barely moves: 52.9% → 52.5%.

They also want to switch the remaining government bonds from GDP weights to market-value weights, which lifts JGBs (4.6% → 7.4%) and trims euro-area govvies a bit; UK gilts stay put.

Additionally, Agency MBS are explicitly part of the pitch: high liquidity, credit quality close to Treasuries because of Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie backing, plus a prepayment/credit premium the fund’s long horizon can harvest.

So the giant fund is reducing duration (while adding yield) as MBS duration is considerably lower due to prepayment risk while maintaining its USD exposure... kinda ruining the terrifying headlines.

“NBIM isn’t making a direct call on US fiscal sustainability,” said Kenneth Crompton, head of rates strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd.

“They’re arguing that they already own enough government bonds to satisfy liquidity needs, and that a long-horizon investor should harvest a broader set of fixed income risk premia.”

However, Mohamed El-Erian’s take is probably the right one: the dollars are modest; the signal that a canonical long-term official holder is structurally less hungry for duration at the sovereign level is what matters.

“The size isn’t big, but the signal that traditional holders and buyers are becoming less reliable is a very important one.”

Finally, we do note that this remains a proposal. NBIM follows a benchmark index set by the Finance Ministry, with major allocation changes to its investment mandate requiring approval in parliament, so there’s no guarantee the fund will be allowed to make the change.

State Secretary Ellen Reitan said the government will “address any proposals for adjustments to the investment strategy in the white paper on the fund, which will be presented to the parliament in the spring” after the Finance Ministry “will thoroughly review the recommendations,” in an emailed comment.

So, with all that in mind - and while we are not used to being the calm kids in the theater when everyone is yelling 'fire' - Norway's fund proposal is more portfolio engineering than a geopolitical "dump America" move (for now)...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:40

Labor Shock: US Adds 162K Jobs In August, 4-Sigma Beat And Above Highest Forecast

In our jobs report preview we quoted JPM's Market Intel desk which said that today's August payrolls number will be a case of "good news is bad news", and sure enough futures are sliding  and yields surging after moments ago the BLS reported that in August, the US added a whopping 162K jobs, up from an upward revised 21K (July is no longer negative -23K), and the second highest monthly increase of 2026 (only March was higher)...

... and printed not only above the median estimate of 50K but above the highest Wall Street estimate of 125K (from Pantheon). In fact, this was a a 4-sigma beat to expectations.

Understandably, today's blowout print was the biggest beat of estimates going back to March. 

For once, revisions were quite favorable, with June numbers revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000, and July revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 55,000 higher than previously reported.

Remarkably, unlike previous months when jumps in payrolls were met with declines in employment, in August we saw a surge of 569K employed workers from 162.177MM to 162.746MM alongside the 162K increase in payrolls.

This meant that after steadily declining for the past year, and diverging with the number of payrolls, the number of employed Americans posted a sizable jump as shown below.

The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.1%, and in line with expectations. Among major groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Asian declined to 3.2%, The rate for teenagers edged up to 14.1% over the month, mostly  offsetting a decline in the prior month. The jobless rates for adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (3.5 percent), and people who are White (3.7 percent), Black (6.0 percent), or Hispanic (4.8 percent) showed little change in August. 

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations, and 3.1% YoY. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $32.53. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in August. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.5 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.8 hours.  

Some more details from the report:

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in August. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.0 percent of all unemployed people. 

The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.6 percent in August but is down by 0.5 percentage point since January. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little over the month and since January. 

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 414,000 to 4.4 million in August. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 

In August, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 5.7 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in August. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little in August at 441,000. 

Taking a closer look at the composition of jobs per the Establishment survey we find the following: 

• Employment in food services and drinking places increased by 59,000 in August, well above the average monthly gain of 12,000 over the prior 12 months.
• Local government education added 42,000 jobs in August, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. Local government education has shown little net change since January 2025.
• In August, employment in manufacturing continued its upward trend (+16,000) and is up by 58,000 since a recent low in December 2025. Employment in machinery manufacturing (+6,000) and in fabricated metal product manufacturing (+6,000) continued trending up in August. 
• Employment in health care continued to trend up in August (+13,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+32,000). Over the month, home health care services (+11,000) and hospitals (+8,000) added jobs. 
• Information employment declined by 23,000 in August, following losses that had averaged 8,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In August, job losses occurred in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-8,000), in publishing industries (-7,000), and in broadcasting and content providers (-5,000). 
• Construction employment changed little in August (+22,000). Employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors continued to trend up (+8,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+6,000).

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade;  transportation and warehousing; financial activities; professional and business services; social assistance; and other services.

Remarkably, unlike previous months where the data was gamed to cover up underlying weakness, this time we saw a very powerful increase in qualitative components, as full-time jobs surged by 735K to 134.288 million, while part-time jobs dropped by 223K!

The unexpectedly strong print has understandably sent Sept rate hike odds spiking and has hammered risk assets, although the real decider whether we get a rate move this month will be next week's CPI print. As a reminder, according to JPM, a print above 95K will lead to a 0.5% to -1.25% down day for the S&P.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:30

Rabobank: "The World As We Knew It No Longer Exists"

Via Rabobank,

As we move towards the end of another trading week, most action was again dominated by the now ubiquitous market bugbear of geopolitics. Central banks are trying to reassert themselves, but under that shadow, and as everything they understand starts to fall apart around them.

Putin suggested he’s open to peace vs. Ukraine. That would be wonderful. It would also be remarkable given everything we have seen to date and the rumours we hear of imminent escalation – unless the peace is on his terms, of course. Notably, the Ukrainian press says another hard winter looms, which the government is not prepared for, and so does a possible new Russian northern front towards Kyiv.

Trump considered declaring the Iran war over, again, days after he floated renaming Hormuz the Strait of America. We then got other stories pointing out that the White House thinks it’s better to pause this war until after the November midterms, then ramp things up again, as is our base case. The economic war vs. Iran obviously stays in place the while time.

South Korea might send its forces to Hormuz to support the US, becoming the first ally to do so, showing US pressure on Seoul, which had many analysts’ eyes rolling, might achieve a result that could help reduce oil prices. Israel claimed regime change in Tehran is its main goal, which is close to being achieved, and that Hamas and Iran are planning attacks on its citizens globally over next few weeks that it will respond to directly should they occur. That is not to include the substantial risk that these two wars become openly conflated into one larger one on at least two fronts, as open and tacit cooperation between Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China is slowly noticed by a wider circle of Western experts.

Even Argentina is rattling its sabre at the UK over the Falklands again, a claim the US may support if the British refuse to lead on NATO defence spending according to some – as the current UK is incapable of projecting a naval task force to the South Atlantic like it did back in 1982, speaking to a general western decline.

It’s not for nothing that oil, while off yesterday’s peak, is likely to close the week with its largest weekly gain since July, as crack spreads remain staggeringly high and stocks of refined products such as diesel are staggering low.

That is a structurally inflationary backdrop because refined products go into or into moving everything. It can only stop being structural if we know both wars are going to end; or that new refineries are going to be magically built years ahead of schedule; or that demand for everything is going to decline due to high prices, which is stagflationary. Neither of the first two are true, and the latter will have huge political consequences. From a geopolitical perspective, you can make peace on your opponent’s terms --but neither Ukraine with its drones nor Israel with its nukes will sign-- to bring oil down; or you can arm up to bring them and it down. Central banks are secondary to that dynamic except where they act on ‘second round effects’ or help on the peace or ‘arm up’ fronts.

Markets can cheer another Fed speech from Waller that suggests that maybe rates don’t have to go up this month. It doesn’t change the above – politicians will or little will.

Markets can watch as JPY swings on heavy intervention again ahead of the BOJ almost certainly raising rates this month. It doesn’t change the above – politicians will or little will. On which note, the BOJ looks like it’s being leaned on by Bessent to hike, who also wants to ensure JPY rises to stabilise US markets. Also watch the reported 155 level in JPY, beyond which we could see accumulated shorts unwound, pushing the currency even further. Indeed, when things unwind it’s a “slowly at first then all at once” non-linear process – and not just in markets, even if they then have to try and price for them.

The Australian financial press just ran an op-ed calling for negative immigration, not lower net immigration, which would have been as unthinkable a few years ago as a collapsing housing market against which the RBA is likely to have to hike again. The same is happening in the US to some degree and various parties on the right in Europe are also talking about the same. Were it to occur, many political norms and economic assumptions built over the past few decades stop working.

As VW sheds 50,000 jobs and closes plants, the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) argued the neo-mercantilist global backdrop leaves Europe vulnerable. It narrows EU options to: “international co-ordination”, i.e., a Plaza Accord for China; “strategic symmetry” to mirror China, requiring “the ECB to depart from its current policy of a freely floating exchange rate”; or “stronger trade defence measures”, i.e., tariffs, and maybe taxing capital inflows.

It notes:

“Clearly there is no easy pathway…This reflects the fundamental tension at the heart of this debate: the desire to maintain the international multilateral trade framework that has brought a great deal to Europe and to the world… At the same time, the issue of growing trade imbalances cannot be resolved within that framework, because it lacks the appropriate instruments.”

It concludes four things, three of which are:

1. Industrial policy is important, but by itself not enough to tackle strategic dependencies. Formulate a strategy that addresses both trade imbalances and innovation.

2. Doing nothing also comes at a high price. Therefore, to address trade imbalances, all options need to be on the table, even if they are painful.

3. Europe is lagging behind when it comes to applying and scaling up technological innovations. Commit to a coherent European innovation system.

OpenAI claims it has overtaken Anthropic with its latest AI model, which is says could be considered to be “Artificial General Intelligence” or AGI. Is this marketing hype, or have we just had a true Manhattan Project moment that transforms everything? Who knows. But would you like to guess where equities, rates, FX, and commodities should sit if the US just developed a true AGI that can now improve itself at a non-linear rate? Now do it assuming we have two major, conflating, wars going on.

In the US, Democrats refused to support a constitutional amendment to keep the Supreme Court capped at nine justices, as the Democratic Socialist Alliance refused to back populist Democrat AOC as a 2028 presidential candidate because she is ‘too mainstream.’ The DOJ also asked the Supreme Court to rule on the White House’s new executive order on mail-in voting, which could have a major impact on both the midterms and all subsequent US elections.  

The fourth WRR conclusion I held back to the end was this: “The world as we knew it no longer exists. Dare to think outside existing frameworks.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 09:40

Bessent Announces EU 'Officially Joined' Operation Economic Outcast Against Iran

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on X Friday that the EU has "officially joined" Operation Economic Outcast, the sweeping US sanctions campaign to cut Iran out of the international banking system and completely isolate it from the global economy.

"The European Union has officially joined Operation Economic Outcast and we appreciate their strong and early stance," Bessent wrote; however, the European Commission seemed to actually reveal no change in the bloc's measures.

The European Union has officially joined Operation Economic Outcast and we appreciate their strong and early stance. The United States stands firm with our allies in ensuring the murderous Iranian regime cannot exploit the global financial system to fund its nuclear ambitions,…

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 3, 2026

"The world is sending a clear message to the Iranian regime: We will not stop until every remaining financial lifeline has been severed," he added.

The EU statement cited by Bessent was published a few days ago when G20 finance ministers and central bank governors opened meetings in Asheville, North Carolina - coming off his prior 'Economic D-Day' announcement against Iran.

The statement in question seems to stop short of Brussels' real and full commitment, but is a mere endorsement. The bloc lays out that it "welcomes efforts at ensuring that Iran ceases its destabilizing activities and engages in peace negotiations with good faith, also through additional economic pressure, including through the US-led Operation Economic Outcast."

It seems to also back Europe's existing measures, as it further states the EU "remains ready to take further measures, where necessary," and pledges to "continue to work closely with the United States and other G7 and international partners to maintain pressure on Iran."

But from there the statement diverges from Bessent, saying the bloc "believes continued diplomatic efforts are necessary to reach a peace settlement, restore regional stability and ensure full freedom of navigation and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz."

Al Jazeera is among those outlets expressing skepticism at Bessent's claim:

On Thursday evening, Bessent thanked the EU for joining the economic campaign, saying that the world was “sending a clear message to Iran”.

However, the statement from the EU doesn’t clearly say that, but does state that the bloc remains “ready to take further measures, where necessary, to safeguard its security and interests”.

The White House has been signaling that it at this point has little hope of revived direct talks between Tehran and Washington, and nothing much on the negotiating from has been reported for several days, especially after this week's flare-up in fighting.

Financial institutions continue to find out the hard way that we are serious about Operation Economic Outcast. While we hope no more banks will need to be sanctioned, that ultimately depends on how quickly the international community comes to its senses and ceases support of the… https://t.co/66WX31SP5V

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 4, 2026

Officials continue to underscore that sanctions and the blockade are really beginning to 'bite' - in a familiar refrain and talking point that was already being echoed for months. But new reporting claims Iranian officials themselves are increasingly conceding this. According to Reuters:

A U.S. campaign to throttle Iran's economy by blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources said. Washington has in recent weeks ​sought to ratchet up the economic pressure on Tehran, in an effort to extract concessions in any future negotiation that six months of conflict have so far failed to secure

It should be noted that many of the mainstream media's predictions based on the usual "anonymous sources say..." - especially forecasts that include timelines - have fallen completely flat time and again throughout the war:

Meanwhile, the country's financial squeeze is itself biting into Tehran's efforts to get around the sanctions regime, leaving less cash to pay the high premiums required to skirt sanctions illicitly, the sources said.

The rial has fallen to record lows over recent days and one senior source said Iran only has another two months' supply of gasoline, which has to be imported despite domestic oil production because of limited refining capacity.

Also, Vance says don't call it a "war"...

Q: When will this war be over?

Vance: Well, I don't.... I wouldn't call it a war. pic.twitter.com/75xffTPJPk

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) September 3, 2026

But leadership in Tehran has been touting that it is ready to face down and endure a long war on all fronts. The Associated Press recently reported, "After six months of war, Iran’s leadership has coalesced around a hard core of military generals and clerics long entrenched in the ruling theocracy. They are ready for a potentially long confrontation with the U.S. and determined to prevent any unrest at home."

Meanwhile, Tehran is publicly sparring with Jordan, in the wake of the latest Iranian ballistic missile launches on key US bases in the Arab country. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi had accused Iran of acting with 'pre-meditation' - batting down its assertion of necessary 'retaliation' against US assets.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi then blasted Safadi and the Jordanian government, writing on X, according to a translation: "How much time does the Jordanian Foreign Minister believe Iran should wait before responding to an aggressor that respects neither Arab sovereignty nor Iranian sovereignty? And is he truly unaware that Arab airspace, lands, and waters were used in the initial American attacks that resulted in the killing of innocent Iranians?"

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 09:25

The post Trade Deficit Jumps in July: Trump Can’t Remember Whether He Wanted Higher or Lower Deficits appeared first on CEPR.

Futures, Yields Flat Ahead Of August Jobs Report

US futures are choppy, trading between unchanged and modestly higher, ahead of today's jobs report which sees a modest increase in August payrolls (but the risk is for another negative print, see our preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are flat and Nasdaq futures gain 0.5% as Mag 7 stocks trade mixed premarket, with NVDA (+1.4%) and AMZN (+0.7%) leading and TSLA (-2.1%) lagging. Bond yields are steady as traders wait to see whether Friday’s payrolls report will offer the Fed enough justification to hold off on an interest-rate hike in September. The USD is 20bp higher as the yen drops after yesterday's surge. Commodities are mixed: oil fell, while base metals and Ags are both higher. Overnight, macro headlines were largely muted following yesterday’s bond market rally after Waller’s comments. All eyes are on the 8:30am ET NFP release (see our preview here), but investors are increasingly more focused on next week’s CPI than the payroll number, given Warsh’s assessment of the labor market and Waller’s comments yesterday.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Tesla falls 2% as the electric-car maker’s invite-only, closed-door Cybercab launch event resulted in little splash. Nvidia +1.1%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta +0.5%, Alphabet +0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%, Apple -0.3%

• Adobe (ADBE) falls 3% after naming Anil Chakravarthy as its next chief executive officer, thrusting the company veteran into a challenging competition with artificial intelligence upstarts.
• Asana (ASAN) falls 10% after the software company gave an outlook that was seen as disappointing.
• Equifax (EFX) falls 5% and TransUnion (TRU) slips 6% after US Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte issued renewed criticism of credit bureaus for overcharging Americans.
• Guidewire Software (GWRE) falls 15% after the company gave a first-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected on key metrics, including revenue and adjusted operating profit. Analysts said the outlook could be conservative.
• Planet Labs (PL) rises 12% after the satellite-imaging service firm reported second-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate and lifted the low end of its full-year revenue outlook for 2027.
• Samsara (IOT) climbs 14% after the fleet management technology provider boosted its guidance for this year’s total revenue and adjusted earnings per share. The ranges for both metrics topped analyst estimates.

In other corporate news, Tesla’s much-anticipated Cybercab launch, an event nearly two years in the making, resulted in little splash or detail as the two-seat vehicle was added to the company’s robotaxi fleet. Lululemon comparable sales fell 9% in the second quarter and lowered its full-year outlook for a second straight quarter, signaling deep challenges for incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill. Speaking of ECM, health and fitness ring-maker Oura filed for an IPO, showing soaring revenue. Its listing could raise as much as $3 billion, based on prior Bloomberg News reports.

While market volatility remains subdued, with the VIX matching its lowest reading of the year, things promise to get livelier post the Labor Day holiday, however, and next week looks busy according to BBG. The traditional fall conference season kicks off, with hundreds of corporates presenting across the country, and there’s a CPI inflation print and a possible massive AI IPO filing to keep traders occupied.

The August jobs report arrives at a time when the odds of a quarter-point Fed hike this month are roughly even. While Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last week emphasized that policymakers’ focus is firmly on inflation, the employment report could help buy them time to assess whether current policy is restrictive enough to bring price pressures under control. Economists estimate the report will show a 55,000 increase in payrolls after an unexpected dip in July employment. Such a result would be broadly in line with average job growth this year. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.1% (full preview here).

One of the major events on the calendar over the next few weeks is likely to move markets and close the implied-realized gap, but for now short-dated index optionality looks more like a sell than a buy. The option implied SPX swing around NFPs is priced about the same as last month, when the 0.55% option-implied move ended up being very close to the realized move of 0.62%.

“The market needs a result weak enough to give the Fed a reason to keep interest rates unchanged, but not so weak that it intensifies concerns about a recession,” noted Linh Tran at XS.com. “Stronger-than-expected employment and wage growth could push yields higher again and weigh on equities.” By contrast, figures close to expectations and accompanied by moderating wage growth would create favorable conditions for the S&P 500 to retest its record high, Tran said.

JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence desk expects a “Good news is bad news” environment for market reaction to the print in most outcomes, with a Goldilocks scenario in the 30k to 70k range.

Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong expects the payrolls number to undershoot consensus, citing a pattern of the data disappointing in August. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence desk sees a Goldilocks scenario in the 30,000-to-70,000 range. 

“We are in the territory where bad news is good news, as both equities and credit are likely to be driven by what rates do,” said Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “A small positive number would be a sweet spot for the markets.”

In AI news, the launch of a new Astra model sent OpenAI proxy SoftBank’s shares soaring in Tokyo trading. Astra benchmark scores of AGI — where artificial general intelligence surpasses human capabilities - gives OpenAI confidence to claim it has overtaken Anthropic on some measures. DeepSeek is planning to power a new data center with an order for one of the largest known clusters of Huawei AI chips as part of China’s efforts to replace Nvidia. Elsewhere, Anthropic is set to finalize an expansion of its revolving credit facility to $15 billion, clearing a hurdle before a public filing by the AI firm for its highly anticipated IPO.  

In other assets, trading in yen call options against the dollar expiring this month was more than two-and-a-half times the volume of puts on Thursday, CME data shows. It’s part of a rush to unwind yen-funded carry trades, while the latest positioning data from CFTC data suggests scope for further short covering.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 edged higher 0.1%. Volkswagen AG rose as much as 9.7% after a major restructuring announcement. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Volkswagen shares gain as much as 9.7%, the biggest intraday move since March 2023, after the carmaker’s supervisory board backed a sweeping restructuring that includes 50,000 additional job cuts
• Continental shares rise as much as 4%, the most in two months, after Oddo BHF upgraded the tire maker. Analysts said the company is one of the most profitable within the sector
• AT&S shares rise as much as 10%, extending a huge year-to-date rally, after Oddo upgraded the printed circuit board maker to outperform, saying new contracts should maintain momentum
• Accor shares gain as much as 3.2% as Morgan Stanley upgrades the hotelier to overweight, naming it a top pick among the travel and leisure companies it covers
• Vodafone gains as much as 2.3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on the company to buy from sell in a wider review of the European digital infrastructure and telecoms sector
• Studsvik gains as much as 8.1%, after the founder and CIO of US hedge fund Segra Capital Management bought shares in the Swedish nuclear technology company
• Oxford Nanopore shares drop as much as 12% after one of its investors, Novo Holdings, offered shares at a hefty discount to Thursday’s close
• Kuehne+Nagel shares fall as much as 2.5% after being downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which sees better execution as priced in and downside risks to Ebit
• Navitas Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration are trading lower today as tensions around the Falklands Islands rise and Argentina targets their Sea Lion project

Earlier, Asian stocks rose on Friday as investors pared bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month, easing some of the pressure that higher bond yields had put on equities earlier in the week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8% and is on track for a weekly gain. Stocks had come under pressure as rising global bond yields stoked concerns about the outlook for interest rates, though sentiment improved after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’d be inclined to leave rates unchanged if inflation continues to slow. Most markets in the region advanced, including South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Japan’s Topix was little changed as investors assessed the impact of the yen’s recent gains. SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and TSMC were up as well. The regional stock gauge is on course for a second straight week of gains, with financials providing the biggest boost as the sector heads for its best week in almost five months.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung between gains and losses after falling as much as 0.7% to the lowest since May 11 on Thursday. The yen held most of its gains after advancing more than 2% on Thursday. The currency has strengthened this week to around 156 amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy faster than previously thought. BOJ policymakers could raise rates at three consecutive meetings through December in an extreme scenario where yen weakness persists, according to Nomura Securities Co. A quarter-point increase this month “looks reasonable,” while “it’s possible that we can have back-to-back rate hikes in October and December,” Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy in Japan, told Bloomberg TV.

• USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 156.45 as a rush to unwind yen-funded carry trades helped propel the Japanese currency higher
• EUR/USD little changed at 1.1622; it’s up 0.3% this week
• NZD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.5897 before erasing gains; New Zealand’s central bank is more likely to wait until December before raising interest rates again, according to Assistant Governor Karen Silk

In rates, treasuries are little changed ahead of August employment data at 8:30 a.m. New York time amid similarly muted price action in European bonds, keeping US yields within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels. US 10-year yield near 4.76% is less than 1bp lower while German and UK counterparts are slightly higher on the day; US front-end tenors lag slightly on the curve, flattening 2s10s spread by more than 1bp vs. Thursday’s close. Thursday’s session saw traders ramp up a range of hedges around the jobs report. Ahead of the data, swaps are pricing in around 14bp of Fed tightening for the September policy meeting and a combined 35bp by the end of the year. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far after just one deal was priced Thursday, bringing weekly total to about $10 billion, broadly in line with dealer estimates.   

In commodities, WTI crude oil , though down about 1%, remains on course for biggest weekly gain since July following renewed US-Iran hostilities.

US economic data calendar includes only the jobs report, for which median economist estimate of nonfarm payrolls change is 55k and crowdsourced whisper number is 30k.. Fed speaker slate empty for the session. External communications blackout period around the Sept. 16 policy announcement begins Saturday

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• A U.S. campaign to throttle Iran's economy by blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources said. Washington has in recent weeks ​sought to ratchet up the economic pressure on Tehran, in an effort to extract concessions in any future negotiation that six months of conflict have so far failed to secure: RTRS
• Israel says it has cleared Hezbollah fighters from tunnels under key Lebanon ridge: RTRS
• Norway’s sovereign wealth fund proposed reducing the amount of government bonds in its portfolio to boost holdings of riskier debt, with Treasuries the most affected. The proposed reduction in government bonds would imply a decrease of about $58 billion of government bonds, with holdings of US Treasuries projected to drop by $75 billion and those of Japanese government bonds possibly increasing by $20 billion. BBG 
• US military turns off ad trackers on devices amid Middle East targeting reports: RTRS
• A rush to unwind yen-funded carry trades helped send the currency to a one-month high against the dollar as traders ramped up bets on further Bank of Japan rate hikes: BBG
• Australia’s bonds, caught up in the global fixed-income selloff, have seen their yields rise more than any of their peers in the past month, despite arguments that the country’s finances are in much better shape: BBG
• Some of the world’s biggest money managers have rebuilt their gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure.
• Fund managers at companies including Amundi SA, Pictet Asset Management Ltd., and Fidelity International Ltd. added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion’s retreat from an all-time high: BBG
• Pimco fund beating 97% of peers cuts ‘Mag Seven’ to bet on Asia: BBG
• Deadly strike on Iranian wedding was likely a direct hit by a US munition, analysis shows: RTRS
• Former Labor Secretary Oversaw a ‘Toxic, Intimidating’ Workplace, Report Finds: WSJ
• The ‘Deeply Nerdy’ Founders Behind Nvidia’s $13 Billion Bet on Hugging Face: WSJ
• OpenAI agents hijacked German website in previously undisclosed AI breakout: RTRS
• Volkswagen flags 50,000 job cuts across group as board approves turnaround plan: RTRS
• Drugmakers Halt Autoimmune Trials After Deaths, Life-Threatening Side Effects: WSJ
• Trump Administration Again Asks Supreme Court to Allow New Mail Voting Rules: WSJ

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks took impetus from the positive global risk sentiment and lower yield environment after Fed's Waller kept a September rate hold in play and following no major new geopolitical developments, while participants look ahead to the key US jobs data. ASX 200 lagged with price action rangebound as the outperformance in tech and telecoms was overshadowed by weakness in mining, resources, materials, utilities and energy, while a quiet calendar and lack of drivers kept the index in check. Nikkei 225 shrugged off the disappointing Household Spending data from Japan and briefly returned to above the 65,000 level amid lower yields and after a source report noted that the BoJ favours a 25bps rate hike this month and a flexible future pace, which helped ease concerns of a more aggressive move. KOSPI rallied amid strength in tech heavyweights with notable gains in SK Hynix, while Samsung Electronics was also firmer after industry data showed it narrowed the gap with market leader SK Hynix in the global HBM market during Q2. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheading the advances alongside strength in property, tech and auto stocks, while the gains in the mainland were limited after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity with today's open market operations amount remaining at zero.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi will keep Finance Minister Katayama, in cabinet reshuffle, according to Mainichi.
• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said interest rate moves are determined by various factors in markets and they will control FY bond issuance properly, while she added that FY27 budget requests total about JPY 143tln and don't represent a large increase. Katayama said they are closely watching bond markets with a high sense of urgency and noted that there were no specific requests from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Furthermore, she said Bessent assessed PM Takaichi's economic policies very highly and has long held a view that the yen has been undervalued, due largely to interest rate differentials.

European bourses start the final trading session of the week on the backfoot, albeit only modestly. Focus will be on the US jobs report, with NFP expected at 58k. Although this data point is key for the Fed, most policymakers will be focused on the inflation print expected in a week's time. Sectors lack a clear bias. Tech tops the sector pile, with Travel & Leisure and Autos rounding out the sector gainers. To the downside is Media, following Vivendi earnings (see more below), with Chemicals and Banks following behind. The biggest story of the morning came from Volkswagen (+6.2%), after the Co.'s supervisory board approved a plan that would include an additional 50k job cuts.

Top European News

• UK Energy Secretary could recommend new North Sea drilling as soon as next week, a Rosebank oilfield announcement expected to follow, The Guardian reported citing sources.
• BoE DMP (Aug): 1-year CPI expectation 3.1% (prev. 3.4%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%).
• European Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%).
• German Factory Orders (Jul MM) 2.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 3.1%).
• Italian Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).

FX

• Mixed action across G10FX where there is no real bias. Stealing leads for no particular reason, JPY lags after large gains this week.
• Choppy USD action this morning which sees EUR/USD within a narrow 15 pip range and DXY flat into NFP. Some broad based, but modest USD upside was seen after the EU cash open, lifting DXY from 99.00 to a high just below 99.10 with EUR and GBP pairs sent to lows. While NFP is the highlight of the day, officials’ keen eye on inflation will be the deciding factor in the Fed’s September meeting, especially after Waller’s remarks on Thursday.
• With a 25bps ECB hike next week fully priced, EUR will likely remain at the whim of the Buck into Payrolls. Focus will be on the first of three significant state elections in September, Saxony. Polling has AfD clearly in the lead with 40-43% of the vote; if materialised, will add to the pressure on the German Grand coalition nationally, though not change the power balance or impact economic/fiscal policy. Lane did not add anything, given ECB is in blackout. EUR/USD choppy, but found support at 1.1620.
• GBP saw some weakness on the DMP which showed easing 1yr inflation expectations, though the reaction was limited to around ten pips and Sterling is still the best G10 performer with BoE’s Bailey not providing commentary on monetary policy. Cable’s 1.3550 will likely provide resistance to further Cable gains absent an NFP surprise. JPY is the underperformer today as it pulls back from recent gains of over 3% vs. the Buck. The pair bottomed at 155.22 and now lies just above 156.00.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks trade with mild gains after initially holding in the red early morning. USTs (+1 tick) trades tentatively heading into US NFP, whilst Bunds (+4 ticks) and Gilts (+6 ticks) post modest gains. Overnight, JGBs (+30 ticks) posted decent gains, tracking the advances made in USTs on Thursday; a couple of decent auctions earlier in the week, and speculation surrounding the GPIF upping its allocation in domestic bonds have also boosted sentiment.
• USTs currently trade at the upper end of a 107-17 to 107-23+ range, at levels more-or-less similar to the week’s open. Focus this morning has been on an FT article which suggested that Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has proposed cutting government bonds to 50% of its bond portfolio (from 70%). The fund now aims to look at other types of debt to try to boost returns. The piece suggests that its allocation to Gilts would remain unchanged, whilst its position in JGBs would rise by 2.8%. On the flip side, a Reuters report suggested that some Chinese commercial banks have upped their purchases of USTs in recent months.
• Bunds and Gilts are incrementally firmer this morning. German benchmarks specifically, focus is on the upcoming Saxony-Anhalt state election. The far-right AfD are expected to win, but attention will be on whether it can achieve an absolute majority. This is because other major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD. Even if the AfD does fall short, the CDU will face the issue of forming a new coalition, potentially leading to political instability and hence reducing confidence in German debt.
• For UK specifically, focus will be on a speech from BoE Governor Bailey. Elsewhere, the BoE DMP saw the 1-year-ahead expectation fall to 3.1% (prev. 3.4%), spurring mild strength in Gilts.
• Norway's sovereign wealth fund sent a letter to the finance ministry recommending the reduction of holdings of US Treasuries from 70% to 50%, according to FT.
• Some Chinese commercial banks have raised US dollar deposit rates above 3% and subsequently increased purchases of US Treasuries in recent months, according to sources.
• Australia sells AUD 800mln in 4.75% October 2037 Bonds b/c 3.21x, avg. yield 5.2133.

Commodities

• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are softer intraday amid a lack of notable geopolitical updates overnight to shift the dial. The former resides in a USD 90.38-92.17/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 89.57-93.14/bbl), and the latter in a USD 94.81-96.21/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s 84.03-97.62/bbl). Over the weekend, the OPEC+ JMMC is scheduled to meet, with market sources suggesting no changes will be made to October's overall output targets as the committee focuses broadly on market conditions and member compliance.
• Metals are also trading broadly flat/firmer intraday amid as drivers remain light ahead of the US jobs report. The consensus expects the US economy to have added 58K nonfarm payrolls in August, analysts say that a payrolls print close to expectations alongside a steady unemployment rate would be consistent with a stable labour market that is cooling but not deteriorating sharply, and that should keep policymakers focused on the inflation side of the mandate.
• Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,460-4,491/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s parameter (USD 4,381-4,511/oz) and in between its 200 DMA (USD 4,534/oz) and 100 DMA (USD 4,355/oz). Spot silver is flat just under its 100 DMA (67.52/oz), in a current USD 66.29-67.20/oz range. Base metals are uneventful with 3M LME copper eking mild gains in a narrow USD 14,299.10- 14,392.73/oz.
• Oil production in Kazakhstan for 2027 is planned at 96mln tonnes, IFX reported citing the budget project.
• Russia's Deputy PM Novak said China will account for more than 60% of Russia's total natural gas exports by 2030.
• Some Chinese rare earth suppliers have reportedly halted some US shipments over geopolitical worries, Reuters reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer said Canada wanted more tariff relief and that he's had a couple of texts and outreach with Canada, but hasn't had negotiations with Canada since. Greer also stated he met with Mexico's Trade Minister on Thursday and that Mexico is eager to do things to protect North America from Chinese imports. Furthermore, Greer said the US is looking to reduce its deficit with China and will probably make agriculture announcements during Chinese President Xi’s visit, adding that he is optimistic about the US-China relationship.
• USTR Greer told the FT that the UK is choosing the EU over the US, which is causing a problem for the UK to expand a trade deal with the US. Greer said the UK had failed to take advantage of Brexit by aligning with EU-made rules and closing its market to American goods and still had “pretty high tariffs”.
• Brazil warned of reciprocal measures against the EU if talks to lift the meat ban stall.
• South Korea's Interior Minister said South Korea and the US are continuing chip tariff talks.

Central Banks

• BoE's Bailey said Fed Chair Warsh is "right to see some dangers in forward guidance" and that central bankers should avoid giving unconditional guidance. He added that we do exercise choice on how fast to bring inflation back to target, "but must do so".
• RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said a rate hike in October or December is still open, but stated a hike is more likely in December and that the RBNZ wants to support continuing improvement in the economy.
• RBNZ MPC member Hansen said Wednesday's rate hike was a clear consensus decision and that further policy decisions will depend on trends in a wide range of economic datasets, while he is watching for surprises in data, not a single indicator, before deciding what should happen in October.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the EU has joined Operation Economic Outcast and that he appreciates the EU's strong and early stance on Iran.
• Oman and Qatar are intensifying efforts to resume Iran-US talks, and that the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and the nuclear file are the focus of new disputes, Nour News reported citing diplomatic sources.
• Direct US-Iran talks have stopped, but mediators are maintaining back channels and trying to build a framework that could bring both sides back to negotiations on a new agreement, FT reported.
• IRNA reported several explosions were heard in Iraq's Erbil province.
• South Korea prepared a plan to deploy non-combat naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Chosun Daily.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner is to visit Russia and Ukraine on September 5th-6th, TASS reported citing sources.
• Ukraine's next goal is to shut down Russia's commercial airspace, according to WSJ.
• Ukrainian Energy Ministry said Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odessa region.

Geopolitics: Other 

• Argentina's President Milei will sign a decree sanctioning companies working on oil exploration of the Falkland Islands, while he stated that the Falkland's Sea Lion Project presents a clear danger and plans to build a naval base in Tierra del Fuego.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 55k, prior -23k
• 8:30 am: Aug Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 5k, prior 5k
• 8:30 am: Aug Unemployment Rate, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the 384th payroll Friday of my career. For the first one I was ordered to get the coffees in for the whole trading floor, keep quiet, and watch the spectacle. Imagine if I asked a graduate to do that today.

Ahead of the big day, the relentless global bond selloff has finally paused over the last 24 hours, with a cross-asset rally driven by dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller. He cast doubt on whether the Fed would hike rates this month, which led to a dovish repricing that led futures to slash the chance of a hike to 51% as of this morning, down from 63% at the close on Wednesday. Moreover, there was also relief on the energy front, as European natural gas prices came down -2.48% yesterday, after rising almost 10% over the previous three days. So collectively, all that pushed back against the hawkish newsflow of recent days. That said, the benefits were much more visible for equities, with the S&P 500 (+1.06%) having its best day in almost a month, than for US long-end bonds, with 10yr Treasury yields a modest -1.1bps lower on the day.

European bonds saw a much bigger yield decline though.  
Those comments from Waller drove the biggest move of the day, as he made several dovish points. For instance, he said that “recent data suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation”, and that if this continued, he would be “inclined to support holding” rates. In addition, he said “my take is that underlying inflation is doing better than the core numbers suggest.” So again, that leant in a dovish direction. Admittedly, Waller said he’d consider a hike “if inflation comes in hot”, but given the rest of his comments were more dovish, market pricing for a September hike fell back to 51% by the close.  

With expectations for a hike in the balance again, that’s heightened the focus on today’s US jobs report, which is out at 13:30 London time. In general, the labour market has been robust in the last few months. But the most recent jobs report for July was much weaker than expected, with payrolls unexpectedly contracting, along with downward revisions to the previous couple of months. So that cast further doubt on a September hike, and it was only thanks to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole last week that investors had grown more confident of a September hike once again. For this report, our US economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to rebound by +65k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. So if realised, that would cement the view that the labour market is holding up and keep the Fed’s focus on inflation.  

Ahead of that report, yesterday’s data generally leant in a more hawkish direction, which acted as a bit of a counterweight to Waller’s comments. Most obviously, the ISM services index for August beat expectations, rising to a 6-month high of 55.4 (vs.  54.1 expected). And digging into the details, the prices paid component moved up to a 4-year high of 72.6 (vs. 70.0 expected), which is notable given that this series is strongly correlated to inflation with a 3-month lag. In the meantime, weekly initial jobless claims were also at just 206k in the week ending August 29 (vs. 205k expected). And the July trade deficit was a bit smaller than expected at $88.6bn (vs. $90.2bn expected).

Despite all that data, the comments from Governor Waller won out when it came to market pricing, though the pull back in Treasury yields did vary across the curve. The decline was most obvious at the front-end, which showed how it was the Fed commentary driving the moves, with the 2yr yield (-3.2bps) falling to 4.34%. By contrast, the rally was more marginal further out, with the 10yr yield (-1.1bps to 4.77%) and the 30yr yield (-1.1bps to 5.25%) actually closing a touch above their levels just before Waller’s comments.  

For US equities, the combination of strong data and dovish commentary offered more decisive support. So the S&P 500 (+1.06%) posted back-to-back gains for the first time in 3 weeks, with the index also back within 1% of its record high from last month. That was led by a very strong performance for the Magnificent 7 (+2.38%), which hit a 3-month high as it posted its best day in the last month. But it was still a broad-based rally, with the S&P 500 seeing the most daily advancers since early August, as more than two-thirds of the index moved higher.  

As all that was going on, bonds and equities received further support from the latest moves in energy prices, with Brent crude (-0.12% to $95.52/bbl) settling lower for the first time in four sessions. But otherwise, the moves under the surface weren’t so bad for other asset classes. Moreover, longer-dated oil futures fell back, meaning that investors were slightly pricing out a prolonged period of high oil prices and the chances of stagflation. The 12-month Brent future fell -1.12% on the day to $76.67/bbl. And natural gas futures also fell back on both sides of the Atlantic, which eased concerns about a wider spike in energy prices this winter. So the European natural gas future fell -2.48% to €71.80/MWh, whilst the US natural gas futures also fell -1.45%.

Those moves in energy prices offered plenty of support to European assets, with yields finally pulling back from their multi-year highs on Wednesday. That happened across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.3bps) down to 3.34%, alongside declines for 10yr yields on OATs (-4.8bps), BTPs (-5.0bps) and gilts (-9.6bps). Then for equities we also saw a recovery, with the STOXX 600 (+0.49%) stabilising after 3 consecutive declines, including gains for the DAX (+0.63%), the CAC 40 (+0.07%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.70%).  

Asian equity markets are generally riding the tech train this morning with the Hang Seng (+2.12%), KOSPI (+1.88%) and the Nikkei (+1.30%) all strong. Elsewhere, mainland Chinese markets are posting more modest gains, with the CSI 300 up +0.43% and the Shanghai Composite advancing +0.35%. In contrast, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (-0.21%) is bucking the regional trend. US and European equity futures are all up less than a tenth of a percent.  

Meanwhile, data released earlier this morning showed that Japanese household spending contracted in July at the fastest annual pace in two and a half years, underscoring weak private consumption ahead of the BoJ policy meeting two weeks from today. Consumer spending fell -3.6% year-on-year, significantly worse than the market expectation of a -1.6% decline, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction. The drop was the steepest since January 2024, when household spending declined by -6.3% year-on-year.

That has helped see a small decline for the yen this morning (-0.36%) following on from a huge jump yesterday, as it strengthened +1.86% against the US dollar. Thats a four big figure move in 48 hours now. To be fair, a small part of that was dollar weakness after Fed Governor Waller’s remarks. But that was only part of it, as the yen was also up +1.55% against the euro as well. The moves came amidst mounting speculation that the Bank of Japan would take further action in two weeks. However speculation that they would supersize the hike faded as Bloomberg reported yesterday they were leaning towards a 25bp rate hike this month and would leave open the possibility of a faster pace of hikes afterwards. Their next meeting is just a couple of days after the Fed’s decision. So that'll be a big couple of days for markets mid-month.  

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the US jobs report for August. Other data releases include German factory orders and Euro Area retail sales for July. Otherwise, central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey and the ECB’s Lane.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 08:25

GE Vernova Finds Its Footing In Sweden With Studsvik After Loss To Rolls Royce

Swedish nuclear life-cycle services company, Studsvik AB, announced an agreement with GE Vernova Hitachi (GVH) and Samsung C&T for 1.2 GW of new nuclear energy in Sweden.

Project developer Studsvik selected the GVH boiling water reactor design, the BWRX-300, to be constructed by Samsung C&T. The consortium is targeting first-unit operation in the mid-2030s.

The project location is still undetermined. It'll be developed at either Studsvik's existing licensed nuclear site in Nyköping, or Målma in Valdemarsvik.

This latest project for GE Vernova comes shortly after they lost in a competition with Rolls-Royce to construct reactors for Swedish state-owned utility Vattenfall. But, GE Vernova has been working with Studsvik’s wholly-owned reactor development subsidiary for several years, making this less of a surprise and more of a confirmation of previous expectations.

Rolls-Royce SMR selected to deliver Sweden’s first new nuclear power for over 40 years https://t.co/IakhRoHKVR pic.twitter.com/eSZmMdSPWX

— Rolls-Royce Press (@RollsRoycePress) June 15, 2026

The new project for GE Vernova is notable though for being one less reactor than they were competing against Rolls-Royce for earlier this year. The project to be developed at Nyköping or Målma will be for four BWRX300s instead of the potential five they would have built at the Värö Peninsula.

The reactor developer Studsvik is probably new to most of our readers, as the company only sees meaningful volume on its home exchange in Stockholm. The company has been in the nuclear industry for over 75 years, with services over a range of engineering-related business segments, to include fuel modeling software used across the commercial US nuclear fleet.

The company only recently entered the reactor development space after they acquired Kärnfull Next earlier this year, leading to their relationship with GVH and Samsung.

With the market cap under $200 million and revenue coming in under $100 million in 2025, the company has gone relatively unnoticed over the recent year. We covered them earlier this year when they acquired KNXT, but investors are still largely uninterested in one of the few plays on the Swedish nuclear renaissance story.

After jumping almost 200% from mid-2025 to the beginning of 2026, the stock has pulled back with the rest of the global nuclear and AI trade.
 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 07:45

Lululemon Crashes After Another Brutal Guidance Cut; Jefferies Flags "Triple Whammy" Quarter

Lululemon Athletica shares crashed in premarket trading in New York after the athletic-apparel retailer slashed its full-year outlook again, suggesting that demand in the Americas is deteriorating as Alo and other rivals gain market share. The move also puts mounting pressure on its incoming chief executive to revive the struggling brand.

Lululemon expects full-year revenue of between $10.35 billion and $10.50 billion, down sharply from its previous forecast of $11 billion to $11.15 billion and well below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $11.03 billion.

Full-year earnings are forecast at $9.48 to $9.73 per share, compared with the previous range of $10.95 to $11.15 and below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $10.84.

"We know there is significant work ahead for us," Lululemon's interim co-CEO, Meghan Frank, said during the company's call with analysts. "We're applying what we're learning this year to how we operate globally going forward."

The third-quarter forecast was even grimmer. Lululemon expects revenue of $2.29 billion to $2.32 billion, well below the $2.53 billion estimate. Earnings are projected at just 93 cents to 98 cents per share, versus the $2.41 analysts had expected.

The dismal forecasts overshadowed stronger-than-expected second-quarter profitability. Adjusted earnings of $2.92 per share exceeded the $1.80 estimate, while gross margin and operating margin also surpassed Bloomberg Consensus estimates. Revenue of $2.42 billion, however, missed expectations.

Shares crashed in premarket trading, falling about 19.3%. As of Thursday, shares were down 41.4% year to date.

Lorraine Hutchinson, a managing director and senior retail analyst at BofA Securities, wrote in a note on Friday morning that the athletic-apparel retailer's guidance downgrade failed to convince her team that the stock had found a bottom, given that North American sales continue to weaken and an unexpected reversal in China is pushing any potential recovery further into the future.

Here's what Hutchinson told clients:

Guidance reset again; no line of sight to inflection

LULU's 2Q miss in China and lack of progress in North America push the recovery timeline further out. Management laid out a detailed product and marketing plan to try to stabilize the business, but is not embedding any resultant improvement into the outlook. However, incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill joins next week, so we may hear a change in strategy on next quarter's earnings call. We think the depressed multiple balances the reset with the challenges ahead and retain our Neutral rating. LULU reduced its guidance by 15% to $9.48-9.73 (incl 86c of tariff refunds). We are cutting our F26/F27E EPS by 13%/31% and our PO to $122 from $140, still based on 12x P/E, now on F28 as we roll our valuation year forward.

China: from growth engine to the source of the miss

China Mainland grew 4% (-2% ccy) and comps declined 8%, well below mid-to-high-teens sales guidance. The shortfall was due to weak traffic driven by pressure following social media commentary after the Great Wall marketing event. E-com was further hurt by a softer 618 event on Tmall. China sales were pressured in May, improved in June, then pressure resumed in July. To rebuild brand heat, management is focusing on brand-led marketing and activations in Tier-1 cities to try to shift the narrative. We model continued comp declines for the remainder of the year and into 1H27.

US comps: leggings decline/away-from-body green shoots

North America revenue fell 8% with comps down 12%. Leggings sales declined 20% in Q2 and women's bottoms were down MSD. Customers are shifting to away-from-body silhouettes and LULU is chasing 20% more volume than last year. Accessories also fell 13%, with strength in backpacks offset by softness in bags.

Margins get worse before they get better

Guidance implies that US trends worsen in 3Q, as 2Q sales benefited from more markdowns and categories like leggings continue to underperform. With a new CEO starting next week, it's difficult to have visibility on strategy, but we were surprised to hear that store openings and marketing will continue as planned. This is causing 1050bp of margin decline in 3Q. 4Q margin guidance calls for only ~240bp of pressure as LULU laps the bulk of its tariff pressure and continues to work on controlling SG&A. LULU also has $105mn ($0.65) of tariff refunds outstanding that it has not included in guidance.

Here's what other desks on Wall Street are saying, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Guggenheim (Neutral)

• Analyst Simeon Siegel says he fears that the reduced top-line guidance does not incorporate a deep enough cut looking further out.
• The trim in the forecast "is another along a stretch of a 'thousand cuts,' rather than a 'kitchen sink' approach."

Jefferies (Hold, PT cut to $105 from $115)

• Analyst Randal Konik says Lululemon's 2Q was "a triple whammy": US revenue was down, the women's business was down, with leggings falling 20%, and China was also lower.
• "Guidance cuts for both 3Q and the year confirm the fixed cost base is too big for a shrinking top line."

CFRA (Buy, PT $169)

• Analyst Zachary Warring says the Americas comparable-sales decline of 12% marks a meaningful acceleration from the 5% decline reported in the year-ago period, indicating "deepening market share losses in the company's largest and most profitable region."
• "Heidi O'Neill joins as CEO on September 8, 2026, and the company's ability to stabilize the Americas business and restore full-price selling discipline will be the central focus for investors in the quarters ahead."

Bloomberg Intelligence

• "Lululemon's challenges are far from over after weaker 2Q results prompted another cut to its 2026 outlook, with pressure set to intensify in 2H," writes Poonam Goyal.
• Goyal says the new CEO will need to restore product innovation and brand momentum, which should take several months to show tangible progress.

Jay Sole, managing director and senior retail analyst at UBS, told clients earlier today that he continues to see "a balanced upside/downside skew, even at a lower price."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 07:20

The Rising Cost Of Electricity In The United States

Across the U.S., Americans are paying roughly 30% more for electricity than in 2020.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Cody Good in partnership with the National Public Utilities Council, uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to show the change in average retail electricity prices by state across all sectors from 2020 to 2025.

Where Electricity Prices Rose the Most

Washington, DC saw the largest increase in the country, with average retail electricity prices rising 72% between 2020 and 2025. Maine followed closely at 67%, while Maryland and California rose 52% and 50%, respectively.

State Abbreviation State Change in Electricity Price, All Sectors 2020-2025 (%) DC Washington, D.C. 72 ME Maine 67 MD Maryland 52 CA California 50 RI Rhode Island 47 PA Pennsylvania 46 NY New York 45 MA Massachusetts 44 IL Illinois 43 CT Connecticut 39 DE Delaware 38 NJ New Jersey 35 NH New Hampshire 31 FL Florida 30 HI Hawaii 28 LA Louisiana 27 AL Alabama 26 MS Mississippi 26 NV Nevada 26 AR Arkansas 25 VA Virginia 25 WV West Virginia 25 IN Indiana 24 MI Michigan 24 AZ Arizona 23 WA Washington 23 OH Ohio 22 TN Tennessee 22 VT Vermont 22 CO Colorado 21 UT Utah 21 WI Wisconsin 21 ID Idaho 19 MO Missouri 19 MN Minnesota 18 NC North Carolina 18 OR Oregon 17 OK Oklahoma 16 KS Kentucky 15 AK Alaska 14 GA Georgia 14 TX Texas 14 MT Montana 13 SD South Dakota 13 IA Iowa 11 KS Kansas 9 NM New Mexico 9 SC South Carolina 7 NE Nebraska -1 WY Wyoming -1 ND North Dakota -18

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data shows percent growth in average retail electricity prices across all sectors from 2020 to 2025.

Many of the largest increases were concentrated in coastal and Northeastern markets, where retail electricity prices have climbed sharply since 2020.

The U.S. Interior Tells a Different Story

While most states saw higher electricity prices, a few moved in the opposite direction. North Dakota had the largest decrease, with average retail electricity prices falling 18% from 2020 to 2025.

Nebraska and Wyoming also posted slight declines, each falling 1%.

This contrast shows how electricity costs can vary widely across the country depending on regional generation mixes, fuel costs, grid needs, regulations, and local market conditions.

The Bigger Impact of Rising Electricity Costs

Electricity prices rose across most of the U.S. from 2020 to 2025, but the increases were uneven. This matters because electricity is a core cost for households, businesses, and local economies.

As demand grows from data centers, electrification, and grid upgrades, affordability will remain a key challenge across the U.S.

For questions about the rising cost of electricity, contact the National Public Utilities Council.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 06:55

My end-of-week morning reads:

​• Job Postings Show Early Signs of AI Automation Impact: The Dallas Fed finds the automation signal starting to show up in the listings data. (Dallas Fed)

• The Death of the Safe Haven: How to Fix Your Bond Strategy as Yields Rise: The rise in U.S. Treasury yields is creating opportunities—along with serious portfolio risks. (Barron’s)

• The Cost of Being Warren Buffett: He turned 96 years old a few days ago, on 30th August 2026. He bought his first stock at the age of 11, which means he has now spent about 85 years at this game, and at 96 he is still the man most of us in this business measure ourselves against. It felt like a good moment to sit down and think about him once more. ​Safal Niveshak on what the compounding machine gave up along the way.  (Safal Niveshak)

​• Data Center-Related Investments Available Across Most Asset Classes: Bailey McCann on the $580 billion invested in data centers in 2025 — set to be eclipsed by the $750 billion hyperscalers plan to spend this year — and the ways investors can participate. (Chief Investment Officer)

​• A $40 Billion ETF Shuffle Helps Foreign Investors Dodge US Taxes: Every three months like clockwork, investors pull $40 billion or more from a BlackRock ETF and park it in a near-identical twin — flipping funds to avoid dividends and the 30% tax that comes with them. (Bloomberg)

• Why the Flock Backlash Has Gotten So Intense: The sudden anger about these cameras seems to reflect more than just wariness about the surveillance system (The Atlantic)

• Who Approves Trump’s Washington Makeover Projects? The Supreme Court gave a green light to the new White House ballroom, but several of the president’s other Washington projects remain stalled .(New York Times)

​• This El Niño Will Be Unlike Any in the Past Eight Decades: Joshua Partlow on the box scientists have drawn in the middle of the Pacific — two-thirds the size of China — and the anomalies its buoys are recording. (The Atlantic) see also El Niño Is Now Stronger Than at Any Point in the Last 1,000 Years, Study Finds: Jacek Krywko on “one more warning sign of what we’re facing in a warmer world.” (Ars Technica)

• Why is it so hard to give away my dad’s brain? Scientists need fresh samples to research new treatments. But the donor process is an odyssey. ​Courtney E. Martin on the most emotionally taxing three-way call since junior high — navigating the urgency and bureaucracy of brain donation. (Vox)

​• By Dropping a Sledgehammer, Adam Silver Squares Off Against the NBA’s Richest Owner: He was a terribvle CEO; he is an even worse professional team owenr. Five takeaways from the league’s punishment of the Clippers over the Kawhi Leonard cap-circumvention scandal. (Yahoo Sports) see also Report of the Independent Investigators Concerning the LA Clippers and Kawhi Leonard: The full Wachtell Lipton summary report (PDF). (Wachtell Lipton).

Video of the day: What Happens When Everything Is for Sale?

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business next week with William McNabb, former CEO and Chairman of the Vanguard Group from 2007-17. He is also an advisor to Venrock, and was an investor and advisor to Altruist, which was just sold to VG for $2 billion.

 

Hospital prices increased 3X overall inflation rates, closely followed by college costs and child care

Source: “How Much, Doc?”

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Finnish President Just Made Some Surprisingly Frank Comments About Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

He argued that it’s not plotting to test NATO’s resolve, its resilience to immense hardships “should never be underestimated”, suggested that the conflict will end without Ukraine recovering its lost territories, praised the CIA chief for visiting Russia, and called for “someone in Europe” to follow suit.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb bucked the trend of fearmongering about Russia in his interview with Bild. Instead of claiming that it’s plotting to test NATO’s resolve like American media reported was the reason why the CIA chief recently paid an unannounced visit to Moscow, he described such talk as part of Russia’s “information warfare” against Europe. Stubb insisted that his intelligence doesn’t indicate any such plans and argued that Russia wouldn’t attack the world’s most powerful military bloc anyhow.

He also pointed to the unlikelihood of Russia “suddenly mobilizing” forces for a two-front conflict with Ukraine and NATO even though he still believes that a mobilization directed towards Ukraine will occur this fall despite United Russia Chairman Dmitry Medvedev recently denying that there’s any need to. Another of the surprisingly solid points that Stubb made about Russia had to do with its resilience to immense hardships and warned that this “should never be underestimated” by its foes.

He also suggested that Ukraine won’t recover its lost territories upon describing victory for it as simply “surviving, remaining independent, and remaining a sovereign state” but still urged its allies to continue supporting it for their unspecified sake of their own security. Wrapping everything up, Stubb praised the CIA chief’s recent unannounced visit to Moscow for expanding bilateral dialogue in “different formats”, which led to his clarion call for “someone in Europe” to “resume dialogue with Russia” too.

Stubb’s last point echoes what he intriguingly told local media a week prior about how “At some point, dialogue will have to be established on the European side, and perhaps the most important role in this will be played by countries that share a border with Russia.” This followed reports that Britain, France, and Germany – collectively known as the E3 – are preparing to resume dialogue with Russia. It was thus analyzed here that the E3 and the Intermarium might open up rival dialogues with Russia.

The Intermarium refers to the modern-day revival of interwar Poland’s vision of an anti-Soviet alliance between their country, the Baltic States, and Finland, all of which border Russia in the present. Therefore, the abovementioned analysis concluded that Stubb might lead the Intermarium’s dialogue with Russia since regional leader Poland’s government is irreparably divided between the conservative president and the liberal prime minister, which makes it unlikely to agree on this ultra-sensitive issue.

Stubb also expressed interest earlier this year in serving as the EU’s envoy for talks with Russia back when this role was first discussed among the bloc’s members, but the problem is that Putin suggested shortly thereafter that this should be “someone who has not badmouthed us”.

As it turns out, Stubb was recently condemned by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as a terrorist for justifying Ukraine’s attacks against civilian infrastructure, which might disqualify him from this role.

At the same time, Putin might calculate that it’s better for dialogue to occur with Stubb if he initiates it on behalf of Finland, the Intermarium, or the EU as a whole than to rebuff him in that scenario, so the possibility of him entering into some sort of talks with Russia in the future can’t confidently be ruled out.

While all EU leaders apart from Slovakia’s Robert Fico are adversarial to Russia, Stubb is the most pragmatic among them, so he might ultimately be tasked with this role or play it on his own initiative.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 05:00

Ferrari's Hybrid Hangover: Collectors Stampede Into Legacy V8s And V12s

Exotic-car collectors continue to shun hybrid Ferraris (Read May's sportscar report) in favor of legacy V8 and V12 petrol-powered models, pushing used-car values sharply higher.

One possible driver is concern over long-term ownership costs: hybrid and fully electric supercars combine complex electronics, high-voltage battery packs, and sophisticated thermal-management systems, creating the risk of astronomical repair bills as these vehicles age.

Goldman Sachs analyst Christian Frenes, the bank's equity analyst covering European automakers including Ferrari, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, Stellantis, Renault, Aston Martin, and Porsche Automobil Holding, wrote in a Thursday morning note that the Ferrari Residual Value Index climbed 5.8% in August and 13.8% from a year earlier, reaching 102.25.

That pushed the gauge above its January 2025 level for the first time since the bank began systematically tracking used-Ferrari prices.

Under the hood, Frenes said the US led the rally with a 10% monthly gain, driven by both a more valuable mix of cars and higher underlying asking prices. Great Britain advanced 4.6%, although he cautioned that the increase reflected a specials-heavy mix and that comparable prices declined. Italy rose 1.5%, Japan gained 1.3%, and Germany increased 0.9%.

The big story is that since January 2025, used hybrid Ferrari prices have fallen 13.1%, while non-hybrid models have surged 16.4%. The gap widened again in August, with hybrid prices slipping 0.6% as petrol-powered models jumped 10.4%.

Here's a snapshot from the report:

1. US exceptional gains continue as all markets improve: Latest August data show month-over-month residual list-price improvements across all regions, with the USA clearly outperforming (+10.0%), driven both by a strong mix and rising underlying list prices. GB also improved by 4.6% month over month, although the gain was driven by a specials-heavy mix; like-for-like prices declined. Italy (+1.5%), Japan (+1.3%), and Germany (+0.9%) all posted moderate gains.

2. US hunger for legacy V8/V12 persists: Since we began tracking in January 2025, hybrid models have moved -13.1% and non-hybrids +16.4%. The latest August month-over-month data further widened the powertrain gap, as hybrids were broadly flat (-0.6%), while non-hybrids posted material gains (+10.4%). The increase was largely driven by continued exceptional US demand for legacy, phased-out V8 and V12 models, which now list 36% and 30% above rest-of-world prices, respectively, in the US secondary market. We continue to believe this trend is best explained by heightened US collector demand following the reveal of the electric Ferrari Luce.

3. Ferrari extends its luxury-peer lead in August: Our newer cross-brand index (April 2026 = 100) shows Ferrari at 114, versus Lamborghini at 109, Rolls-Royce at 105, Bentley at 103, Aston Martin at 102, and McLaren at 96. Nine of the ten largest model-level gainers since April were pre-hybrid Ferrari V8 or V12 models. Hybrid weakness, meanwhile, remains a peer-wide phenomenon, with Bentley hybrids contributing to the largest model-level losers since April.

The report's most compelling charts show exotic-car collectors shunning hybrid Ferraris in favor of V8 and V12 petrol-powered models:

Collectors are aggressively bidding up the naturally aspirated 812 GTS, powered by a 6.5-liter V12 engine, while avoiding the hybrid SF90 Stradale.

Collectors became especially aggressive in petrol-powered models after Ferrari debuted the all-electric Luce, which has since bombed.

Across the used exotic-car market, Ferraris remain the models most favored by collectors, while McLarens are being shunned.

Professional subscribers can read the full report at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 04:15

Russia's Oil Revenue Sinks As Urals Falls To $59

Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Russia collected 326.2 billion rubles, or about $3.76 billion, in net oil revenue in August, down 22% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly total since February.

Russia’s tax authority calculated August oil revenues using a crude price of just over $59 per barrel. Urals, Russia’s main export grade, averaged almost $95 per barrel during the spring after the Iran war pushed buyers toward barrels outside the Persian Gulf.

Total Russian oil and gas revenue fell 16% year over year in August to 424 billion rubles. Oil and gas provide roughly one-fifth of federal budget revenue.

August oil receipts were more than 60% below July, which included a large scheduled payment from Russia’s profit-based tax on producers.

Moscow also paid refiners more than 197 billion rubles in August to maintain domestic fuel supplies. Refinery subsidies have reached almost 916 billion rubles since January.

Ukrainian drone strikes have repeatedly disrupted Russian refineries this year. Russia responded with restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports and increased fuel imports as domestic supplies tightened.

The refinery outages have also reduced Russia’s ability to absorb its own crude production. Every barrel that cannot enter a refinery must move into storage, find export capacity or remain underground.

Export capacity has developed problems of its own. Ukrainian attacks have disrupted terminals and shipping operations in the Black Sea and Baltic, reducing Russia’s ability to redirect crude displaced by refinery outages.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that Russia’s recent production decline should reverse as refineries restart.

Rystad Energy expects a deeper hit. The consultancy recently cut its 2026 Russian crude production forecast to 8.95 million barrels per day and expects output to decline to roughly 8.6 million bpd in 2027.

Russia benefited earlier this year from a sharp increase in global oil prices. August brought Urals back near $59, refinery subsidies above $2 billion for the month, fuel export restrictions and additional pressure on crude production.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 03:30

Grain That Feeds Half The World Set For Biggest Annual Gain Since 2003

Chicago rice futures are on track for their largest annual gain since 2003 as the grain that feeds much of the world becomes increasingly expensive amid an intensifying El Niño and diesel-fuel and fertilizer supply disruptions stemming from turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite encouraging signals of a potential Black Sea peace deal, which sent wheat futures tumbling earlier today, the risk of a broader food crisis next year remains elevated.

Chicago rice futures have surged more than 50% this year, while benchmark Thai prices have advanced for six consecutive weeks. Bloomberg says the rally reflects growing anxiety that adverse weather conditions and elevated agricultural input costs will curb production across Asia, which dominates global rice output and exports.

India's monsoon rainfall was 13% below normal as of Wednesday, while US rice-crop conditions were weaker than a year earlier.

BMI commodities analyst Bin Hui Ong said monsoon-dependent producers such as Thailand and Indonesia are particularly vulnerable because dry conditions could coincide with critical planting and early crop development periods.

"We think monsoon-dependent Southeast Asian producers, particularly Thailand and Indonesia, are among the most exposed, as the anticipated dry conditions could significantly overlap with critical planting and early crop development periods," Ong wrote in a note.

Ong said, "We expect the implications to be felt most acutely by net rice-importing and lower-income markets, where higher rice prices can feed directly into food inflation and affordability pressures."

Rice futures in Chicago have jumped to near two-year highs. If the gains hold through year-end, this would mark the largest annual increase since 2003.

Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa already have limited stock buffers, the analyst added.

Several Wall Street desks, including Barclays and JPMorgan, have warned about mounting food-supply risks next year.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 02:45