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Q2 GDP Grew At Modest 1.5% According To Latest Revision, As Expected

While far less relevant than the rest of today's data barrage, including the core PCE report and Durable Goods data which showed a mixed real-time picture of the economy as core prices rose more than expected while core CapEx missed expectations, the BEA also reported its second revision of Q2 GDP data - yes, for the quarter ended June 30 or almost two months ago - and which came in at 1.5%, right on top of expectations, and unchanged from the previous estimate.

According to the BEA, contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending, exports, and investment that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. 

Compared to the first quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports increased more in the second quarter than in the first quarter. 

As shown in the chart below, virtually all growth in Q2 GDP came from personal consumption, which added 2.31% to the bottom line 1.5%, GDP print, or more than all of it. On an annualized basis, personal consumption rose 3.4% q/q, beating the 3.2% median estimate and also advance reading. 

Another 1.2% came from Fixed Investment, all of which was the result of non-residential construction (data centers and intellectual property products). On the other end, Net Exports subtracted a total of 1.14% from the bottom line GDP print while the change in private inventories detracted another 0.72%. Finally government erased another 0.16% from the GDP print. 

There was some better news when it comes to real gross domestic income (GDI) which increased 2.2% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2% in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.8%, compared with an increase of 1.7%.

And while it is especially irrelevant in light of today's much more up-to-date core PCE data, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.8% in the second quarter, revised up 0.1% point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 5.3% revised up 0.2%, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.6%, also revised up 0.2% point. However, as noted previously, this is for a quarter that ended 2 months ago so ignore all of the above.

Finally, profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $400.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $74.4 billion in the first quarter

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 08:45

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Ticks Up In July As Americans Suddenly Start Saving More

Following the CPI and PPI internals, this morning's PCE data should not offer too many surprises with expectations for the headline price Index to rise just 0.1% MoM in July (after deflating for the first time since COVID in June).

The (old) Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) - printed in line with expectations (+0.2% MoM and +3.3% YoY), a very slight uptick...

Services costs continue to dominate the inflationary picture...

The headline PCE rose 0.2% MoM (hotter than the +0.1% MoM expected) with a small uptick for the YoY at +3.7%...

Non-durable goods prices continued to deflate in July...

The much-watched SuperCore PCE (Services ex-shelter) saw price inflation slow on a YoY basis...

The decline in crude prices dragged the Energy component of PCE lower...

Ironically, while semiconductor prices are major contributors to inflation, it turns out that a rising (or now sideways/falling) stock market is also driving up aggregate prices as portfolio management service costs soar...

This is important because it accounted for more than half of all Core PCE Services inflation...

Under the hood, it was all Portfolio Management & Advice Services...

Higher prices were met with higher spending (+0.2% MoM notional) and higher income growth (+0.4% MoM) - both stronger than expected...

Income and spending annual growth is slowing...

On the income side, both public and private worker wage growth slowed:

• Govt worker wages drop to just 1.4% YoY, lowest since March 2021

• Private worker wages drop to 3.8% from 4.6%, lowest since March 2026

Real personal spending growth dipped notably...

...which might help explain why the savings rate inflected higher from four year lows...

"The economy remains strong and inflation isn’t dropping," says TradeStation’s David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy. 

 "Strong consumption, spending and durable goods orders suggest the committee has room to tighten without causing a recession. These numbers support hawkish policymakers at the Fed’s committee and increase pressure on Kevin Warsh later this week. It’s getting harder for him to dodge the issue of hiking rates."

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 08:43

Futures Flat Ahead Of Key PCE Report, Nvidia Earnings

Stock futures are are flat and Treasuries slipped while oil stumbled heading into today's PCE report and NVDA earnings. As of 8:00am ET, S&P Futures are unchanged and Nasdaq futures drop 0.2% as NVDA and MRVL both rise 0.2% with Semis flat, Memory down 80bp, Korea down 46bp, Software down 1.3%, but Unprofitable Tech +83bp which point to continued de-risking into NVDA / MRVL where expectations are positive, but a stronger print may mean more for the ecosystem than for the individual stocks. Elsewhere, both Cyclicals and Defensives are mixed with Healthcare standing out to the upside and Energy to the downside. Bond yields are +1-3bp as the curve bear flattens, giving back some of yesterday’s gains. Confirming out report from Monday about Bessent's plan, JPM reports this morning that "There is chatter of CTAs accelerating buying as 10Y yield approaches / breaches 4.60%." USD is higher, crude is lower on US / Iran deal optimism, but WTI may have support at $80/bbl until a deal is announced. Base Metals are stronger, precious metals are weaker, and Ags are mixed but net higher. Today’s macro data focus is on PCE where consensus expects a headline PCE +0.1% MoM / +3.6% YoY and Core PCE +0.3% MoM / +3.3% YoY. Nvidia reports earnings after the close. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher as Wall Street is eagerly anticipating Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday afternoon, not so much for what the numbers will say about the chip giant, but for what they mean to artificial intelligence investors and the market itself. Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 0.2%; Meta Platforms +1.5%, Amazon +0.2%, Alphabet +0.1%, Apple 0.0%, Tesla -0.1%, Microsoft -0.7%

• Bath & Body municatiWorks (BBWI) falls 3% after the retailer posted second quarter results and providing a year forecast.
• Dycom Industries (DY) falls 4% after the builder of fiber-optic systems for cable TV operators posted second quarter results and provided a forecast.
• Intuit (INTU) declines 11% after the tax-preparation software company gave a full-year forecast for both adjusted earnings and revenue that was weaker than expected.
• JM Smucker (SJM) rises 3% after the food company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• Kohl’s (KSS) falls 4% after the department-store chain posted second quarter results.
• Neogen (NEOG) gains 3% as Piper Sandler upgrades the food processing firm to overweight following several consecutive quarters of improving performance.
• NCino (NCNO) falls 6% after the midpoint forecast for subscription revenue in the third quarter missed the average analyst estimate.
• Photronics (PLAB) climbs 17% after the semiconductor supplier reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Semtech (SMTC) gains 4% after the semiconductor device company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that was much stronger than the analyst consensus.
• SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) gains 7% as UBS upgrades to buy, saying the solar company is positioned for market-share gains following the FCC ban on new inverter model imports.
• Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE) sinks 11% after the drug developer said a mid-stage trial of its experimental drug for rheumatoid arthritis, an autoimmune disease, fell short of the company’s internal bar to develop it as a monotherapy.
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) rises 8% after the cancer drug developer gave results from a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy,
• ivonescimab, as a treatment for biliary tract cancer. Analysts note that its the drug’s first success in a late-stage trial outside of lung cancer.
• Zoom Comons (ZM) falls 6% after the software company gave outlooks for adjusted third-quarter earnings and operating income that were weaker than expected.

In other corporate news Northrop Grumman CEO said the Trump administration’s Golden Dome space defense system was becoming “very tangible” for defense contractors and that her company will end up with a “decent share” of a program that may eventually cost more than $1 trillion. Hyundai unveiled the biggest product push in the automaker’s history, announcing more than 100 model launches and refreshes to challenge Toyota in the hot US hybrid market.

With over $5 trillion in market cap, Nvidia’s earnings after the close are expected to shape sentiment decisively. The stock has fallen the day after each of its previous four reports, while options markets are pricing in a 5.4% move either way on results expected to show revenue nearly doubling from a year ago. The headline numbers, however, aren’t where the market’s attention lies. Investors are more interested in hearing what the artificial-intelligence bellwether has to say about spending by its biggest customers, the outlook for demand and a wave of financing deals.

“What’s really going to matter here is the guide,” said Stephanie Niven, portfolio manager at Ninety One. “And it’s not the growth that’s the question, but the rates at which that growth is either accelerating or decelerating.”

Nvidia fell for seven straight sessions before bouncing back on Tuesday. While the recent weakness may lower the bar for the quarter, “it does not materially lower the bar for the outlook,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

“If equities sell off, do we want to buy the dip? If the spread blows up that’s a signal that we do not want to enter,” Li said. “But if spreads are holding tight, and fundamentals are good, and if markets are selling off because of indigestion then maybe we could actually consider re-expressing our conviction which is overweight AI and tech in particular.”

Elsewhere, this morning the US government will publish the latest personal consumption expenditures price index. Economists estimate the index rose 3.6% in July from a year ago, the smallest annual increase in four months. Portfolio-management fees should drive more than half July’s core PCE deflator gain, with downward revisions likely in September. Nominal consumer spending probably rose just 0.1%. The expected slowdown isn’t cause for alarm, as activity was pulled forward into June by Amazon Prime Day and the FIFA World Cup.

“PCE can ease the immediate macro stress, but it cannot alone solve the Treasury-market problem,” said Ulrich Urbahn at Berenberg. “The more durable bullish outcome would be soft core inflation plus calmer oil, evidence of stable demand, and a subsequent decline in long-end yields that doesn’t rely solely on Treasury liquidity measures.”

Brent crude extended its decline to about 9% for the week as diplomatic efforts to normalize flows through the Strait of Hormuz gained further traction. In the latest development, Iran and Oman are working toward a potential deal to resume shipping through the waterway. Copper held near a record high, with short-term supplies continuing to look tight despite an easing of a severe market squeeze.

While corporate earnings have supported stocks for now, the asset class faces risks from AI-driven supply concerns and volatility ahead of the US midterms, according to Barclays strategists.

European stocks are edging higher, led by miners and with the technology and energy sectors trailing.Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Hochschild Mining shares rose as much as 8.5%, trading at a three-month high, after analysts said the miner raised its all-in sustaining cost of production less than feared, a welcome development as gold prices hold onto recent gains
• Salmar rose as much as 5.5% to the highest since June after Nordea upgraded the stock to hold from sell, saying there’s “limited fuel for a sell case in the short term” following the Norwegian salmon company’s 2Q results
• Stadler Rail gained as much as 18%, the most on record, as analysts noted a solid set of first-half results from the Swiss train manufacturer, including a significant increase in orders
• SoftwareONE shares rose as much as 16% to their highest in nearly two years after the Swiss IT company beat profit expectations in the first half, though analysts noted the firm’s failure to boost guidance
• Truecaller shares rose as much as 11%, hitting their highest level since December, after analysts at JPMorgan raised their price target and predicted the software company can at least double in value over the next nine months
• DEME Group shares rose as much as 7.4%, the most since January, after the marine engineering contractor increased its profit guidance and beat net profit expectations
• Inventiva climbed as much as 7.2% — the biggest gain on the CAC Small Index on Wednesday morning — after KBC Securities increased its price target on the stock
• Major European software stocks traded lower on Wednesday in the wake of disappointing updates from US outfits Intuit and Zoom Communications, while a downgrade of German heavyweight SAP is also sapping sentiment
• SAP fell as much as 4.6% after UBS reduced its rating on the shares to neutral from buy, citing the software company’s slow progress in delivering AI products to customers
• Ambu fell as much as 18%, the most since November 2025, after the Danish healthcare-equipment maker reported earnings and updated its guidance, with JPMorgan saying sales were in line, while adjusted Ebit was a 19.5% miss excluding tariff refunds
• OVH Groupe shares fell as much as 10% after the announcement that CFO Stéphanie Besnier is to step down
• H&M fell as much as 2.3% after Handelsbanken cut its rating on the Swedish fashion retail group to hold from buy, saying the scenario presented in its June 2025 buy initiation has played out, with gross margins recovering thanks to internal and external factors

Asian stocks rose, led by an advance in heavyweight chipmakers before Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7%, heading for a second day of gains. Samsung and TSMC were the biggest contributors to its increase. Energy was the only sector to decline on the regional benchmark as oil fell for a third day, with Iran and Oman discussing an “interim framework” aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia gauge has risen about 3% in August, on course for its first monthly gain since May. Taiwan’s key index gained the most in two weeks, while gauges in Japan and South Korea also advanced. Australian stocks fell after the nation’s core inflation was stronger than analysts expected in July. Abrdn is positive on Chinese internet firms Tencent and Alibaba after a recent selloff, as well as on financials and high-dividend consumer shares, Pruksa Iamthongthong, senior investment director, said on Bloomberg Television. India is starting to see some positive earnings revisions after a long stretch, while the financials sector offers some opportunities, she said.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed, with the Aussie dollar the best performer among major currencies following an unexpected inflation overshoot.

In rates,treasuries hold small losses in early US trading, erasing a portion of Tuesday’s advance before release of PCE inflation gauges in July personal income and spending data and, later Wednesday, the monthly 5-year note auction.  Oil prices, which in recent sessions have led yields lower, decline further, limiting Treasuries’ losses. Front-end yields are higher by about 2bp with long-end tenors little changed, extending the recent yield-curve flattening trend; 10-year near 4.64% is less than 1bp higher on the day and slightly cheaper vs UK and German counterparts. Today we get a $70 billion 5-year note auction at 1 p.m. New York time has WI yield near 4.36%; last month’s 5-year sale drew 4.408%, the highest result since December 2024.New 2-year notes hold small gain vs Tuesday’s 4.204% auction stop, with yield just below 4.20%; cycle concludes with $44 billion 7-year note auction Thursday. IG credit new-issue calendar is anticipated to be light through month-end; three borrowers sold a combined $3.7 billion Tuesday

In commodities, Brent slips below $86/barrel after Iran and Oman push talks for an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  WTI crude oil futures are down about 2.5% amid assessment of Middle East supply outlook. Gold prices are down and Bitcoin is staying steady around $80,000. Copper held near a record high, with short-term supplies continuing to look tight despite an easing of a severe market squeeze.

US economic data calendar includes July personal income and spending (with PCE price indexes), July preliminary durable goods orders and second estimate of 2Q GDP (all at 8:30 a.m. New York time). Fed speaker slate includes Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin, unscripted in a panel discussion (11:45 a.m. New York time)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told several of his foreign counterparts in recent days that "for the time being" the U.S. is not expected to initiate new strikes against Iran, according to a U.S. official and a second source with knowledge of the matter. Instead, he's said the focus is on other means of pressure, including the sanctions initiative announced this week. Axios
• Iran and Oman have edged towards an interim agreement on managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the first hint of diplomatic progress in weeks as mediators seek to defuse the battle over the strategic waterway. FT
• The US is discussing additional trade penalties against Canada as tensions escalate. Next steps may include higher tariffs, a White House official said. BBG
• China's Moonshot AI is negotiating revenue-sharing agreements with Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet's Google that would allow the U.S. cloud giants to host its blockbuster Kimi K3 model, three people familiar with the ‌talks said. RTRS
• Japan will set up a study group for implementing a 24-hour blockchain based settlement system for stocks and government bonds. Nikkei
• US gasoline inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels last week, API data is said to show. That would cut total holdings to the lowest since November if confirmed by the EIA. Crude supplies rose 4.2 million barrels. BBG
• Australian consumer prices rose by more than expected in July, adding pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates again before the end of the year. The annual inflation rate stood at 3.5% in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Economists had expected inflation of 3.3%. WSJ
• US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s bond market intervention is pulling in the opposite direction to the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation, big investors warned ahead of chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
• The Money supply is growing quickly, a headwind for the Fed’s goal of cooling inflation. Barron’s
• Darlene Graham wins South Carolina Republican primary runoff for US Senate, according to DDHQ projection

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the green following the gains on Wall Street, where sentiment was underpinned amid Strait of Hormuz optimism, lower oil prices and a drop in yields, while participants await NVIDIA earnings. ASX 200 traded lower following another deluge of earnings releases and hotter-than-expected CPI data, while Construction Work disappointed with a surprise contraction, feeding into next week's GDP release. Nikkei 225 declined at the open following the firmer-than-expected Services PPI data, but then gradually rebounded and returned to above the 66,000 level. KOSPI saw two-way trade, but ultimately outperformed, with the price moves in the index largely driven by tech heavyweights, which were initially choppy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned as participants digested a deluge of earnings, and with Alibaba shares supported after its founder Jack Ma bought more than HKD 600mln of the Co.’s Hong Kong-listed shares over two consecutive days, signalling confidence in its long-term AI prospects.

Top Asian News

• China's military said naval and air forces conducted routine patrol in South China Sea on August 21st-25th.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said they are considering incentives for firms to diversify fuel sources.
• Japan's Ministry of Justice has finalised its request of over JPY 80.7bln in its budget estimate, which is more than double this year's initial budget, NHK reported.
• Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said expect CPI to gradually rise due to conditions in the Middle East.
• Shinhan Financial Group (055550 KS) and Visa (V) signed a strategic partnership to test stablecoin issuance, remittances, redemption and card settlement, while jointly developing AI-powered payment models for South Korea.
• Japan Atomic Energy Agency and others have developed technology that can extract rare-earth elements from water and oil, reported Nikkei.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are mostly firmer this morning, but with gains only modest in nature. The market remains clouded by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, with traders awaiting the much-anticipated Nvidia earnings. European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Consumer Products takes the top spot, joined closely by Basic Resources and Travel & Leisure. It appears to be the case that the cyclical sectors are benefiting the most in today’s session, aside from the Tech sector, which is the laggard. The latter is subject to pressure on three fronts: 1) SAP (-4%) received a downgrade at UBS. 2) Broader European software names drift, in a continuation of the action seen on Tuesday after Google announced Gemini Enterprise for financial services. 3) Poor Intuit results. Key stories: Banco BPM (+0.3%, acknowledges the unsolicited offer from MPS), SoftwareOne (+15%, H1 rev. beat), Ambu (-16%, decent headline metrics, but guidance downgraded). FTSE 100: Indicative FTSE 100 quarterly review changes show easyJet and Ithaca Energy are set to join, with Entain and Persimmon to be removed.

Top European News

• UK PM Burnham looks at giving mayors in England the authority to suspend the “right to buy” policy and block the sale of council homes, according to FT.
• POLITICO expects UK Energy Secretary Fahnbulleh to "stick to the script" on whether to allow new North Sea drilling.
• UK Ofgem energy price cap to increase by 4% from October 1st (exp. 4%), driven primarily by the Middle East.
• Swedish PPI (Jul MM) 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%).
• Swedish PPI (Jul YY) 6.4% (Prev. 7.4%).

FX

• G10s show mixed performance with AUD and JPY leading after data, while high-beta currencies mostly lag but sit within yesterday’s ranges.
• USD attempts to rebound today with broad based strength against high-beta cyclicals but weakness vs. Aussie and Yen after respective strong domestic data overnight. DXY attempts to rebound after modest losses on Tuesday, but remains within yesterday’s 98.86-99.11 range for now with macro catalysts light into PCE and NVIDIA earnings today.
• EUR is resilient to the modest USD strength with the pair flat today; action which comes after the influential ECB’s Schnabel said the “economy looks to be gaining further momentum.”, which ING suggests “should cement expectations for a 25bp rate hike” in September. EUR/USD lost steam at 1.1680 which has proven resistance over the past few days following a brief period above 1.17 last week. GBP tracks the weaker Buck with Cable continuing to range trade above 1.3620; the Ofgem price cap is to be lifted by 4% from October 1st as expected, while Cornwall insight sees a further 9% rise in January, unwelcome news for UK Policymakers.
• AUD is the G10 outperformer after Aussie CPI beat estimates, remaining above the RBA’s 3% upper inflation target with the RBA’s preferred measure, trimmed mean, unchanged at 3.6% Y/Y above expectations of 3.5%. Unwelcome news for the RBA where a hike in either Sept/Nov are not yet fully priced by markets; banks remain split on this matter with Westpac and UoB saying a November hike could be in play though others shifting calls towards November, while OIS for September doubled from 3 to 6bps. AUD/USD +0.3% on the day, the pair could look towards 0.72, a level briefly eclipsed in May, should pricing turn more hawkish. MUFG notes the risks are starting to shift to a stronger Aussie but cautions positioning is starting to look stretched, referencing the 2yr AU-US swap spread. JPY similarly outperforms after hot Services PPI data from Japan, USD/JPY around 159.00.

FIxed Income

• A contained to modestly firmer start for fixed. USTs and Bunds are slowly inching their way back towards Tuesday’s best, but remain around five and 30 ticks shy, respectively. Gilts differ slightly, in that they opened within reach of Tuesday’s 87.15 best, but have since eased and lost the figure, though still post relative outperformance.
• Today’s docket is headlined by US PCE, though any further updates to the geopolitical developments we saw late-Tuesday could ultimately overshadow. For PCE, the core M/M is seen at 0.2% (prev. 0.1%), which would be in-fitting with the CPI print. Data will help inform the Fed debate, with the inflation-side of the mandate still very much in the driving seat; however, near-term Fed bets may not shift dramatically ahead of Friday.
• For reference, current Fed pricing via CME has around a 64% implied probability of unchanged in September, and around a 30% chance of unchanged by end-2026, with a 45% chance currently to one hike by the end of the year.
• Bunds firmer but, as discussed, shy of Tuesday’s best. Currently holding in the green with gains of around 15 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 124.65 peak. No move this morning to ECB’s Schnabel, who in a Bloomberg interview stuck to her known hawkish-bias, while noting the ECB’s data-dependent language. On supply, the 2048 Bund auction was well-received, but likely due to the low amount on offer. No move was seen following the auction.
• Gilts marginally outperform, but are also off best. Note, coverage remains on the September contract for now, but increasingly activity is turning to the December one, as a way of fully encapsulating what could be a significant September BoE meeting given the bond update that is due, in addition to the first budget of the Burnham government thereafter.
• Italy sold EUR 3.0bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.0bln 3.00% 2028 BTP: b/c 1.58x & average yield 3.02%.
• Japan sold JPY 649bln in 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGBs in enhanced liquidity auction; b/c 3.20 vs. Prev. 2.68. Highest accepted spread -0.011% vs. Prev. +0.004%. Allotment of bids at highest spread 58.2741% vs. Prev. 87.6152%.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, much of the recent US-Iran reporting has tilted positive, albeit remaining unconfirmed by either side. Yesterday, Russian press RIA citing Pakistani and Iranian sources suggested “A ceasefire between the US and Iran has been agreed upon, it includes free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and will be announced in the coming days”, albeit with no further details. For references, the formal 60-day ceasefire window officially expired in mid-August 2026, albeit hostilities have been minimal since. On the flip side, rhetoric from Iran has been more steadfast with the Iranian side suggesting, that east of the Strait of Hormuz, north of the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Oman Sea are under their operational control.
• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are softer by over 2% apiece at the time of writing, with desks citing ongoing optimism surrounding Iran and the US. Brent trades within a USD 84.56-85.99/bbl (vs yesterday’s USD 80.23-85.84/bbl range) range and WTI in a USD 79.62-81.31/bbl (vs yesterday’s USD 85.00-91.29/bbl range). Dutch TTF also pulls back amidst this optimism, clocking losses of over 3% intraday at the time of writing, with the front month contract back under EUR 64/MWh vs ~EUR 69/MWh earlier this week.
• Precious metals are softer as the DXY remains resilient to the lower oil prices. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,627-4,622/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,605-4,697/oz parameter. Spot silver resides in a narrow USD 68.20-69.73/oz range, finding support near its 100 DMA (USD 68.32/oz) and within yesterday’s USD 67.45-69.95/oz range. Base metals are flat as the resilient Dollar is countered by ongoing Chinese stimulus hopes, with 3M LME copper in a USD 14,321.13-14,437.40/t range at the time of writing.
• Shipping data shows Tankers loaded 4mln barrels of Saudi Crude in ship-to-ship transfer off Oman; cargoes heading for China.
• Japan's Cabinet office confirms plans to diversify oil procurement; aims to provide support with extra shipping costs.
• Russia's Novorossiysk grain terminal restoration may take between 1-4 months following suspension in August, according to reported.
• Five commodity vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday which is significantly below the 10-day average of 15, according to data.
• South Korea plans to cut industrial power rates by up to 10% on the new regionally differentiated pricing scheme, according to Yonhap.
• China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for the national farm-product origin market system, targeting improved supply–demand matching and a modern circulation network. China is to largely complete modern farm-produce origin market system by 2030.
• US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +4.2mln (prev. -0.3mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (prev. +1.1mln), Distillate -0.5mln (prev. -2.8mln), Cushing +1.0mln (prev. -1.4mln).

Central Banks

• Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) described the July rate decision as a close call and said officials will receive another full set of data prior to the September 15th-16th meeting. said:. Latest trade dispute with Canada was adding to uncertainty regarding how tariffs will affect prices and economy.
• Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said there will eventually be a reckoning of US debt and debt will reach a point when investors will stop buying if it continues to rise.
• BoJ Governor Ueda will not attend this week's Jackson Hole meeting, with Board Member Tamura to attend on Ueda's behalf.
• Major newswire poll shows 57% of economists expect the BoJ to hike its interest rate to 1.25% at the September meeting, while a slim majority of economists see the BoJ hiking rates to at least 1.5% in Q1 2027.
• ECB's Schnabel said rates must increase further on inflation risks and ECB must prevent second round effects early on, Bloomberg reported.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7829 vs exp. 6.7166 (prev. 6.7852).

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said that they struck 16 targets inside Russia in the past day, which involves oil facilities and logistics centres.
• Russia's Novorossiysk grain terminal restoration may take between 1-4 months following suspension in August, according to reported.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is counting on China's strong diplomatic role in ending Russia's war against Ukraine, while he added that peace can be our shared achievement.
• Russian President Putin advisor said Japan only needs one year to possess a nuclear weapon, according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran's Deputy FM Ghalibaf refiles a post, which said,"Based on negotiations with Oman, the southern route will be completely closed, if Iran's requirements are not met".
• Iranian President Pezeshkian and Russian President Putin will meet on the sidelines of the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan (31st Aug-1st Sep), Iran International reported.
• Iran and Oman outlined a joint proposal for a temporary shipping lane and launch a demining effort in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNN.
• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi details temporary arrangement between Iran and Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz while asserting that reopening of the waterway hinges on realisation of Tehran's demands, according to Press TV.
• Iran official said only Tehran knows Hormuz mine locations, reported Fars.
• Iran Deputy FM Gharibabadi said understanding with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz does not mean opening the Strait of Hormuz. Before taking any action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US must fully implement all its violated commitments. In the understanding with Oman, the route into the strait is completely at our disposal, and part of the exit route is also in Iranian waters; also, the distance between the two routes is not long. US minesweepers are very good targets for us if they enter the region. If US goes ahead with its new sanctions against Iran, Iran will divulge new measures against US interests.
• Iranian Army said areas east of the Strait of Hormuz, north of the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Oman Sea are under our operational control, Al Jazeera reported. Iranian military said ships are under our surveillance hundreds of kilometers before they reach the Strait of Hormuz and can cross if they get our permission.
• Iranian Army Spokesperson Akraminia said in a possible future war, new issues could be raised, such as regional energy infrastructure.
• US President Trump sends nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress, while he still insists the agreement is contingent on Saudi Arabia normalising relations with Israel, according to WSJ.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told foreign counterparts the US is shifting from strikes to sanctions on Iran and that for the time being, US is not expected to initiate new strikes against Iran, according to a US official and a second source cited by Axios. "U.S. officials say the clearing of mines from most of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the fact that more and more tankers have been moving through the southern lane of the strait in recent weeks, significantly reduces Iran's leverage over global energy markets.".
• Houthi military leader states "We reaffirm our unwavering commitment to our principled and faith-based stance in support of the oppressed Palestinian people and their just cause, which is the cause of the entire nation". said:. "- We will spare no effort in supporting the Palestinian people and their resistance fighters until the inevitable divine promise of the fall of the Zionist entity is fulfilled.".
• US Ambassador to Lebanon said "there is progress in the pilot areas, but what is on paper requires time for implementation", Al Hadath reported.
• IRIB news agency noted Palestinian sources report that Israeli forces raid two other settlements in the West Bank.
• Israeli force of 10 vehicles stormed the village of Jamla in the Daraa countryside in Syria.
• Israeli forces strike targets in multiple areas in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said it is not possible to reach a diplomatic agreement with Iran.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Aug 21 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.4%
• 8:30 am: Jul Personal Income, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Jul Personal Spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.29%
• 8:30 am: Jul PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.6%, prior 3.67%
• 8:30 am: Jul Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
• 8:30 am: Jul Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.29%
• 8:30 am: Jul P Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: Jul P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 0.7%
• 8:30 am: 2Q S GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 1.5%, prior 1.5%
• 8:30 am: 2Q S Personal Consumption, est. 3.2%, prior 3.2%
• 8:30 am: 2Q S GDP Price Index, est. 6.2%, prior 6.2%
• 8:30 am: 2Q S Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.4%, prior 3.4%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets turned more positive over the past 24 hours amid a flurry of more encouraging, if non-definitive, headlines on Iran, including a report that the US and Iran may announce a ceasefire in the coming days. This has left oil prices likely on course for their biggest weekly decline since June, with Brent crude down -8.6% since Friday as I type. The easing in inflation concerns helped cement a global bond rally, with 10yr Treasuries (-6.8bps) and OATs (-7.3bps) yesterday posting their best days since June and May respectively. Equities also recovered, in part as AI sentiment turned more positive ahead of Nvidia earnings after the market close tonight.

As we said at the start of the week, in the past few years Nvidia’s earnings have often been a big macro event, with reactions on par with US jobs reports and CPI prints. But in the most recent quarters, the positive earnings surprises haven’t been as big as those in 2023-24, and after each of the last four earnings reports, Nvidia’s share price actually fell the next day. Ahead of the release, Nvidia (+2.19%) and the Philly Semiconductor Index (+1.44%) recovered yesterday. With the AI trade seeing more volatility over the summer, the Philly Semiconductor index is down -20.8% from its June peak, though it’s down only -1.9% from its level at the time of Nvidia’s last results on May 20 and is still up +63.6% YTD. The boost in AI sentiment helped the S&P 500 (+0.32%) and the Nasdaq (+0.66%) advance yesterday even as most S&P constituents fell on the day. US equity futures are little changed this morning.

In terms of yesterday’s market moves, Middle East developments were the key driver, as several headlines raised hopes for de-escalation. These included a couple of reports suggesting that the US administration does not expect renewed full-scale conflict with Iran. The New York Times reported that the US was preparing to send US diplomats back to the Middle East, while later in the day Axios reported that Secretary of State Rubio told allies that the US is not looking to initiate new strikes against Iran. Meanwhile, we heard that Iran and Oman discussed an “interim framework” aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with the initiative seeking to establish a “temporary joint maritime corridor” and to jointly work on clearing the strait of mines. And then, near the US close, Russia’s RIA Novosti reported, citing Iranian and Pakistani sources, that the US and Iran agreed a new ceasefire which is expected to be announced in the coming days and would include freedom of shipping via Hormuz.

This amalgamation of stories pushed oil prices lower. Brent settled -3.89% lower yesterday and is trading another -2.60% lower at just over $86/bbl this morning, extending its decline following the RIA Novosti report. With a -8.6% decline so far this week as I type, Brent has reversed more than half of its +13% rise over the previous two weeks. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices have retreated from Monday’s three-and-a-half-year highs, with front-month TTF gas down -2.54% yesterday and another -6.1% overnight.

With oil prices declining, bond markets rallied on both sides of the Atlantic. Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, including the 2yr (-5.9bps), 10yr (-6.8bps) and 30yr (-5.9bps). For 10yr Treasury yields this was the biggest decline in two months, taking them to their lowest level in almost three weeks at 4.63%. 10yr USTs are trading around 1bps higher overnight. So in the emerging debate over the credibility of a possible ‘Bessent put’ for the bond market, yesterday was one day in the Treasury Secretary’s favour. Sticking to this topic, our rates strategists published a note yesterday discussing what other measures a more interventionist Treasury could pursue 

In Europe, government bonds saw similar relief, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.1bps), OATs (-7.3bps) and gilts (-6.9bps) all receding. This rally came as the amount of ECB hikes priced by next June fell -8.2bps to 55bps. In the evening, Reuters reported that ECB policymakers are ready to hike rates in September but that they have little appetite to signal further tightening after that. This appears in line with our economists’ view, who think a September hike could be effectively a done deal but that further tightening would require evidence of second-round inflationary effects which have been absent so far.

Turning to the Fed, markets lowered pricing of a September hike from 43% to 36% yesterday. That pullback came even as Boston Fed President Collins published an essay saying that without more sustained disinflation progress, it would be “appropriate to tighten policy soon”.  While Collins is a non-voter, our US economists previously pegged her as someone not supporting a 2026 hike, so the comments go to show that a September hike may be very much live for some of the centrists on the FOMC. US inflation will be in focus today, with the release of the July PCE reading. Our US economists expect core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, at a monthly +0.18%.

Speaking of data, yesterday we also received mixed signals on the US economy. Consumer confidence for August slipped once more to 89.4 (vs 90.2 expected), its lowest reading since January. Yet despite the overall drop, the survey’s labour market differential saw its biggest monthly improvement since 2022 (from 2.7 to 7.5) after falling to a post-2021 low in July. Another encouraging labour market signal came from the ADP weekly employment report, which rose by 11.75k in the week ending Aug 8 (vs. 9.5k prior), its highest reading in a month.
Asian equity markets are mostly advancing this morning supported by lower oil prices and bond yields. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.97%) is leading gains. The Nikkei (+0.76%), CSI 300 (+1.03%), Hang Seng (+0.82%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.72%) are also clearly higher with tech stocks rising ahead of Nvidia’s results. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.15%) is bucking the regional trend after Australia’s inflation overshot estimates. 

That Australian inflation print saw headline CPI rise +3.5% yoy in July, down from 3.8% in June but clearly ahead of the +3.3% consensus. Trimmed mean CPI came in at +3.6% (vs. 3.5% expected). Following the release, traders have increased pricing of an RBA rate hike at the September 28-29 meeting from 10% to 32%. Indeed, our Australian economist has now moved to expect a 25bps September hike by the RBA, versus his earlier call for a pause for the rest of the year (see here).

European equities were also mostly stronger yesterday, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.35%), DAX (+0.61%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.29%) moving higher, though the CAC (-0.16%) fell back. The German outperformance was helped by the August IFO business climate reading which rose to a 12-month high (88.8 vs 87.2 expected). So that added to encouraging signals for the German economy and followed revised German Q2 GDP figures (+0.3% q/q vs +0.2% q/q prior), which contributed to our Germany economists upgrading their 2026 GDP view (see here).
In trade news, Canada announced tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on a range of US products, including a doubling of its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminium to 50%. These would become effective September 8 on $20bn worth of US exports, roughly matching the new US 50% tariffs on certain Canadian imports that came into force over the weekend. The Canadian dollar (+0.08% against the USD) stabilised after Monday’s decline though it was still one of the weaker G10 currencies on the day.

To the day ahead now, data releases include US July PCE, personal income, personal spending and durable goods orders. ECB’s Cipollone and Fed’s Barkin will speak. Earnings include Nvidia, Crowdstrike and Salesforce. We’ll also get US Treasury auctions with a 2yr FRN re-opening and a 5yr note auction.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 08:12

Colombia's New President Orders Immigration Raids, Vows To Deport Illegal Immigrants

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Colombia's new president has ordered immigration raids this week and promised deportations of immigrants without legal status.

Colombia's President Abelardo de la Espriella speaks during a press conference at the Palacio de San Carlos in Bogota, Colombia, on August 12, 2026. (Esteban Vega La-Rotta/AFP via Getty Images)

President Abelardo de la Espriella, sworn in three weeks ago, described the move as a crucial step in reducing crime.

The order went out during a security council session in Barranquilla, with police and the national migration agency tasked with the job. Operations are set to begin this week.

"I will not accept any illegal immigrants, wherever they come from," De la Espriella said in a video posted Sunday on his X account. "They will have to leave and be deported. It is a political decision I am taking responsibility for."

He is prioritizing those committing crimes, but will also focus on those lacking legal status to be in the country.

"Colombians must come first, second and third," he said. "Let the coordinated operations begin to find illegal immigrants, first those committing crimes, then those whose status is not regularized."

Approximately 2.8 million Venezuelans live in Colombia, representing the largest such group outside their country. Most fled economic collapse and political pressure at home, with previous governments under Presidents Ivan Duque and Gustavo Petro issuing temporary residence permits. Approximately 2.3 million Venezuelans held them as of July, according to the migration service.

Hundreds of thousands still lack regular status. Officials have not released an exact current count of those facing removal, and De la Espriella did not single out any nationality by name. Venezuelans make up the vast majority of foreigners in Colombia, a nation of 54 million people.

The president, a conservative closely aligned with President Donald Trump, took the oath on Aug. 7 in Cali. His campaign stressed security and a "Colombia first" approach.

Duque's administration rolled out the main temporary protection program in 2021 at the height of the outflow from Venezuela, and Petro kept much of it in place.

Colombia shares a long, open border with Venezuela. This week's announcement marks a clear break. For nearly a decade, Colombia absorbed the largest share of Venezuelans leaving their country. Humanitarian groups and successive governments treated the flow as a regional challenge requiring accommodation.

Arles Pereda, head of an association of Venezuelans in Bogota, Colombia's capital, said the new policy was troubling because the two earthquakes that hit Venezuela in June sent a new influx of immigrants into Colombia seeking opportunity.

Catherine Juvinao Clavijo, a member of Colombia's House of Representatives, was also unhappy with the new president's policy, posting on X that De la Espriella was "playing at a homegrown MAGA."

"It's heartbreaking to see so much xenophobia toward our brothers and neighbors and so much servility toward governments to whom we owe nothing," she said in her Monday post.

The U.S. Department of State in March updated its travel advisory for the Republic of Colombia, retaining a "Level 3: Reconsider Travel" warning for the nation.

"Street crime occurs throughout Colombia and can quickly become violent," the department advised. "If you are targeted by criminals, do not resist."

Colombia also faces risks of terrorist violence. Attacks could target U.S. government or local government facilities, tourist areas and attractions, shopping malls and markets, clubs, airports, restaurants, hotels, and transportation centers, with little to no warning, the advisory said.

"Police procedures and investigations in Colombia differ from those in the United States, and crimes against tourists are not always prosecuted," the advisory stated. "This can be a source of frustration for victims."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 08:05

US-Canada Trade War Threatens Electricity Imports, Prices

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive

An escalating trade war between the United States and Canada is once again threatening to ensnare the electric power sector at a time when consumers are already stretched thin.

Canada is expected to announce retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods Tuesday after President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on about $20 billion in Canadian goods went into effect over the weekend, with threats of more on the way.

On Monday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford told the Associated Press that “everything is on the table,” including halting the province’s critical minerals and electricity exports entirely. The BBC reported Ford said he and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed a 25% tariff on electricity to the U.S.

In 2025, amid a previous trade dispute, Ontario enacted a 25% tariff on power exports to the U.S. The two sides eased tensions shortly thereafter, and the tariff was eliminated a day after taking effect.

ISO New England, in a statement to Utility Dive, said that if Canada opted to reduce or eliminate electricity trade, it “would not anticipate reliability issues tied to reduced imports, at least under typical weather conditions.”

Under extreme temperatures, however, supplies in New England “could become tight, but that would hinge on many factors that are difficult to project,” the grid operator added.

“It’s also important to note that power flows both ways between the New England and our Canadian neighbors these days,” it continued. “In the event Canadian provinces reduce (or entirely cut) the amount of electricity they are sending to New England, we would expect the impact to largely be financial, in the form of higher wholesale market prices. We would also anticipate emissions in the region increasing.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, earlier this month, highlighted the growing value of electricity and natural gas trade between the two countries.

“The value of electricity trade between the United States and Canada totaled $3.2 billion in 2025, 67% of which was electricity imported from Canada into the United States,” EIA analysts noted. Electricity trade between the two countries “is relatively small compared to trade in other energy sources.”

The two countries’ electricity sectors are more intertwined today, however. In June, North America’s longest fully-buried transmission line began delivering Canadian hydropower to New York City. The $6-billion Champlain-Hudson Power Express is expected to meet up to 20% of the city’s electric needs.

The New York ISO is in “close and regular contact with Hydro Quebec and Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator,” Kevin Lanahan, senior vice president of external affairs and corporate communications for the grid operator, said in a statement to Utility Dive.

“The NYISO anticipates having adequate supplies to meet expected demand on the system,” Lanahan said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 07:20

Oil Dumps As Iran, Oman Push To Reopen Hormuz; Satellite Image Shows Gulf Producers Ramping Up

Brent crude futures dropped for a third session as Iran and Oman advanced plans for a temporary maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent tumbled to $85 a barrel early Wednesday, down more than 9% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $80. Crude remains up more than 41% this year following the US-Iran conflict and ongoing disruptions at the Hormuz chokepoint.

Earlier, Oman's state news agency reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi discussed an "interim framework" establishing a temporary joint shipping corridor.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said both countries agreed on a temporary route and intend to negotiate a permanent corridor within 30 to 60 days, according to Tasnim. No timeline has been given for when the temporary deal to reopen the critical waterway would begin.

Talk of an interim deal comes as oil loadings from Iraq's Persian Gulf export terminals surged at the beginning of the week, offering one of the clearest signals yet that regional Gulf producers expect Hormuz tensions to dissipate.

Satellite imagery showed seven tankers collecting Iraqi cargoes, with a combined carrying capacity of roughly 13 million barrels, according to Bloomberg.

Maritime research firm TankerTrackers also reported on X, saying, "A busy day in the Gulf of Oman, where there are at least fifteen sets of STS transfer sessions taking place. We count 25 million barrels of crude oil; plus some refined products. The oil originates from almost every country in the region, minus Iran."

A busy day in the Gulf of Oman, where there are at least fifteen sets of STS transfer sessions taking place. We count 25 million barrels of crude oil; plus some refined products. The oil originates from almost every country in the region, minus Iran.#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers pic.twitter.com/TAba26mJiW

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 25, 2026

"It seems crude is now beginning to price in a sooner rather than later peace deal," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities, who Bloomberg quoted.

Kissler noted, "With some oil still getting through the strait, Iran and the US are more likely to be in a newer state of de-escalation as both sides are looking for an off-ramp."

By now, readers know that the energy crisis is not necessarily about crude, but rather refined products, as diesel crack spreads in the US topped $100 a barrel. The good news is that, by midweek, the spread was trading around $88.

Related:

• Diesel Crack Spread Madness Deepens As Jefferies Finds No Easy Exit From Russia's Refining Crisis

Last week, veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie detailed on X that the next commodities bull market was poised for another leg higher (read note).

The latest developments in the Gulf are promising signals, but an interim framework should not be mistaken for a durable normalization of regional tanker transits through the maritime chokepoint. Previous de-escalation efforts have repeatedly broken down, often returning the region to drone attacks on tankers and short-lived military tit-for-tat bombing campaigns. Until a permanent and enforceable shipping deal is set in stone, the Hormuz risk premium is likely to remain embedded across crude and refined-product markets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 06:55

Zelensky Continues To Oppose Wartime Democracy Amidst Escalated Election Demands

Authored by John Weeks via Antiwar.com,

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing mounting pressure to hold elections. The Ukrainian leader was elected to a five-year term in 2019, which expired in May 2024.

Last week, Ukraine's former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov publicly called for elections, breaking what has been characterized as a "wartime taboo" within the nation's elite. He continued to demand elections over the weekend and also directly accused the Defense Ministry of corruption.

Fedorov is not the first high-profile Ukrainian figure to call for elections. Back in 2024, Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko denounced Zelensky and called him an "autocrat" for refusing to hold elections. But Fedorov is the first figure to have served within the upper echelons of the national government to publicly endorse the restoration of democracy.

On Sunday, Zelensky released comments slamming Fedorov's recommendation as a threat to Ukrainian national security. "I believe that if we want to destroy the country, then during such a war we can move in the selection of elections," Zelensky said.

While Zelensky has portrayed wartime elections as an existential threat to all of Ukraine, he also said he would be open to elections if the nation's allies secured "specific conditions" that would allow all military personnel and displaced civilians, millions of people, to participate. This pledge undid the myth that Ukraine is forbidden to hold wartime elections by its own constitution under material law. It is also such an unlikely scenario; Zelensky appears open to democracy while safely shielded from it. If elections were held, he would lose.

The challenge from Fedorov is significant because the 35-year-old was the youngest minister of defense in Ukraine's history, and his firing last month triggered protests throughout the country. Despite having no military experience, the former tech entrepreneur was viewed as revolutionizing Ukraine's drone warfare. He only served for a few months before a rift with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's armed forces at the time, prompted Zelensky to fire him.

After protests broke out following Fedorov's sacking, Zelensky tried to placate the people by firing Syrskyi as well. This has not turned down the temperature, as protestors want Fedorov reinstated.

The anger is understandable. Zelensky and his administration are keeping the nation at war, and there is no end in sight. The war has been the justification for martial law, and the martial law has been the justification for the temporary, indefinite suspension of democracy.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 06:30

Why Data Centers Favor On-Site Gas Power

Most data center developers opting for on-site gas power say that they see it as a “bridge” solution until a grid connection is secured. Yet economics may favor keeping those assets running even after grid power becomes available.

A recent BloombergNEF analysis shows the marginal cost of operating an on-site gas plant may be below industrial electricity tariffs, making continued generation from on-site assets the cheaper option in many cases. 

Marginal generation costs depend on fuel prices and variable operating expenses. BloombergNEF modeled the marginal cost of operating engines, turbines and fuel cells at a mid-scenario gas price of $3.97 per million British thermal units. Gas engines, such as ones manufactured by Wartsila and INNIO, have the highest marginal cost, at $43.2 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Fuel cells, most prominently procured from Bloom Energy, are the cheapest to continue running, at $21.5/MWh, benefiting from high thermal efficiencies and the lowest variable operational cost.  

Securing a grid connection does not necessarily make on-site generation redundant. Developers can continue using gas plants to supply most of a facility’s electricity while relying on the grid for reliability, reserve them for backup or peak demand, or in some cases export electricity to the grid.

The optimal operating strategy will depend on the relative cost of grid electricity, fuel prices and the marginal cost of operating the gas plant. More efficient technologies such as fuel cells and combined-cycle gas turbines are likely to be dispatched more frequently because of their lower running costs.  

The contracted electricity price will ultimately determine how often developers rely on the grid. Industrial electricity tariffs are forecast to average $88.6/MWh in 2027, while wholesale power prices are expected to range from $24.4/MWh to $74.7/MWh, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Developers with access to low electricity prices may increasingly shift demand to the grid, while those paying the highest industrial tariffs could continue to favor on-site generation even after their grid connection is in place.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 05:45

When Paris Went Hungry Under Government Food Controls

Authored by Daniel J. Smith via The Daily Economy,

How does Paris get fed? Frédéric Bastiat famously explained in Economic Sophisms (1845) how market exchange reliably provisioned the (then) million people of Paris with agricultural produce from the countryside that they were able to enjoy "peaceful slumbers...not disturbed for a single instant...."

In stark contrast, Bastiat predicted that there would be "much suffering within the walls of Paris - poverty, despair, perhaps starvation..." if a presumptuous minister decided to replace the market with their own decision-making for what "should be produced, transported, exchanged and consumed...."

We can appreciate Bastiat's observation about the miraculous functioning of the market even more when we look at a time when Paris actually went hungry.

France's Experiment in Forced Provisioning

Leading up to the French Revolution in 1789, France found itself in a precarious fiscal position. It had accumulated crippling debt from the Seven Years' War and its support for the American colonies during their War of Independence. This heavy debt burden left the kingdom woefully unprepared to withstand the economic shocks that followed.

Economic shock came in the form of the eruption of the Laki volcano in Iceland in 1783, which contributed to climatic disruptions and poor harvests in France in the years that followed. These problems were compounded by a severe hailstorm in 1788 that devastated crops and livestock, raising prices, especially for bread, which was the main staple at the time. Increased demand for grain to support the military and its draft animals, when France declared war on Austria in 1792 (followed by war with Great Britain), pushed prices even higher. When France implemented a draft that drew agricultural workers into the military and then began requisitioning agricultural horses and wagons, the supply of grain was further reduced.

Henry Bourne, writing a two-part article in the Journal of Political Economy in 1919 about this era, notes that in the fall of 1792, "One of the longest and most important debates [of the National Convention] was upon the best method of insuring a supply of bread at a reasonable price." This was a problem that especially loomed over the major city of Paris. Bourne argues that the threat of starvation fueled not only the French Revolution, but the mob mentality and interventionism that followed. As Bourne writes, "People, in a panic because they do not know where next week's bread, meat, and coal are to be found, are not likely to apply the rules of evidence to every rumor." The French clamored for state intervention on the "fixed idea that dearness and scarcity were the result of speculation" rather than underlying economic conditions.

Transporting grain became a risky enterprise as mobs sprang up to seize it, further decreasing the supply of grain to Paris. To add insult to injury, the transportation of grain to major cities was further suppressed by inflation, which made the issued assignats unappealing to country farmers.

The National Convention and the Paris Commune turned to "a series of ventures in price-fixing and food control" to solve the problem. Bourne notes that "price-fixing became one of the characteristic features of the Reign of Terror." In 1793, the National Convention imposed a maximum price, or what economists today call a price ceiling, on grain. In a futile attempt to warn of the potential consequences, Pierre Vergniaud, who later that year was executed under the accusation of the radical Jacobin Maximilien Robespierre, urged that "If you destroy commerce, you decree famine."

French attempts to deny the economic reality reflected by market prices, by attempting to suppress them, resulted in severe shortages and long lines.

"The scheme not only failed to encourage the farmer, it threatened him with ruin," Bourne noted. "His expenses for tools, draft animals, and wages were steadily rising, but his profits were cut down, with the prospect of further losses every succeeding month."

But politically savvy politicians blamed these disappointing outcomes on greed and used them to justify further interventions backed by the threat of imprisonment and death. The National Convention created a Commission of Subsistence and Provisioning to be the "Food Director" of France. Swarms of officials were commissioned to survey farmers' inventories and fields in an attempt to enable government officials to redirect grain to where it was needed. Rules were issued detailing the precise percentage of bran that millers could extract and even dictated the one type of bread that would be allowed. A bread card rationing system was created but was abused as families failed to report the death of family members to continue receiving the same allotment. Bourne reports that in 1794, rations fell to a single pound of bread for each laborer and three-fourths of a pound for others, and that "it was practically impossible to obtain meat, butter, eggs, oil, and other articles of food commonly regarded as necessary," as price ceilings were extended to these items as well.

Officials attempted to appeal to the higher motives of the people, telling them that they were "brothers and that they should help" even if it meant turning over the grain needed for their family, for storage for future use, or even the seed necessary to plant the next year's crop. This proved insufficient, however, so the officials eventually turned to force.

Bourne writes that "An attempt was made to provide for Paris by compelling every farmer to furnish within twenty-four hours sixteen bushels of wheat for each hide of land." French dragoons were soon released upon the countryside to "scour the country" for food and to arrest any suspected hoarders. As Bourne notes, "merchants were thrown into prison upon the accusation of the first intriguer who shouted out his suspicions at a popular society. The local revolutionary committees acted as judges without appeal. To escape a similar fate the other merchants hastened to dispose of their merchandise and did not restock."

If a farmer had grain in the field but no laborers to gather it, laborers were drafted by local authorities. Millers and bakers in Paris were drafted and forbidden from abandoning their work without sufficient notice. Eventually, the National Convention even attempted to extend maximum price laws to the wages of laborers as well.

Despite the substantial and systematic efforts of the National Convention and the boards of the separate departments of France, Parisians and much of the rest of France, went hungry under government control. In Cahors, people "were so poorly fed that they were falling in the street from sheer weakness." In Nord, "grain of every sort disappeared from the markets..." The people of Paris would stand "with famished eyes" for hours in line "only to be told when their turn came that nothing was left." As Bourne concludes, "If the maximum laws were meant to save the common people from want and wretchedness, they failed."

Bastiat's Market-Fed Paris

It is unclear whether Bastiat, when writing in the 1840s about the remarkable way in which free markets coordinated the efforts of countless individuals to feed Paris every day, was implicitly contrasting this outcome with the French Revolution's earlier rejection of market exchange. He almost certainly knew that revolutionary France had experienced severe food shortages and government price controls, making the contrast between the two episodes striking even if he did not intend it.

As Bastiat stressed, government officials could not replace the information and incentives provided by market prices. Orders, price controls, requisitions, forced sales, and even forced labor failed to feed Paris. When the National Convention tried to do so, it produced exactly the outcome Bastiat had predicted more than half a century later: not peaceful slumbers, but long lines, empty markets, and widespread hunger. Notably, these outcomes began to recede as the Commission was abandoned and markets were restored.

Dr. Daniel J. Smith is the Director of the Political Economy Research Institute and Associate Professor of Economics in the Jones College of Business at Middle Tennessee State University. His academic research and policy work uses Austrian and public choice economics to analyze private and public governance institutions.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 05:00

ICE Begins Deporting Illegal Immigrants To Dangerous African Countries

Imagine entering the US illegally and enjoying the fruits of the American economy for years, only to wake up one day in the darkest of Africa in a country known for cannibalism?  The strategy might be ugly, but it might also be ingenious.  

Last year, illegal Cuban immigrant Yasmany Moreno de Armas was working and living in Florida. He's now in the Central African Republic, after the Trump administration sent him and dozens of deportees to the deeply impoverished and conflict-ridden nation.

The 31-year-old said he only learned the U.S. government was deporting him to Africa after he arrived there in late July, alongside detainees from countries across the globe, including Ecuador, Honduras, Serbia, Russia and Vietnam. 

"We cannot leave, we don't have documents and we're suffering and missing our families, in a continent we don't know..."

Armas claims he committed no crime, but he committed the crime of invading US borders without citizenship.  The ongoing narrative from the political left is that this particular crime somehow doesn't count.

Illegals shipped to Africa are appealing to the media to plead their case, though there's not a whole lot anyone can do about their situation.  Under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) the US government has the right to deport illegal migrants with expediency.  And technically, ICE isn't required to take these migrants back to the countries they originally came from.  

Cuban immigrant Yasmany Moreno de Armas says ICE never told him he was being deported to the Central African Republic, a deeply impoverished country that the State Department warns Americans not to visit for any reason due to widespread violence.

The conflict-ridden country is… pic.twitter.com/oGKF4ohXnd

— CBS News (@CBSNews) August 23, 2026

The US established an agreement with more stable countries like Liberia in West Africa to accept illegal migrant deportations over a year ago.  Liberia has recently accepted over 1200 of these deportations.  However, ICE and DHS are branching out to other countries in Africa that are not so stable.   

The Central African Republic has a history of extreme sectarian violence.  It also has a long history of cannibalism.  European explorers noted the cannibal practices of the Azande tribes in the 19th Century and the habit has continued into present day, with warlords in the region famously committing cannibalistic acts against their enemies. 

The seemingly random nature of these deportations and the severity of them might sound like unorganized brutality, but if we ponder it for a moment, it's actually highly effective.  Any illegal migrant from anywhere could win the African lottery; no one is guaranteed a ride home.  Therefore, it would be smarter for migrants to self deport and ensure they end up in a place they're familiar with.   

In other words, as news spreads that the US is dumping illegals in the middle of the worst countries in Africa, self deportations could skyrocket and ICE won't be required to hunt these people down in the streets.  It's brilliant.

Appeals to sympathy are having less and less effect as the political left continues to fail to drum up any substantial public opposition to deportations.  In fact, many Americans feel that the sooner illegal migrants are removed from the country the sooner the US can get back to normal business.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 04:15

US Removes Syria, Including Al-Nusra Front, From Its List Of Terrorism Sponsors

Following a decade-and-a-half of a Washington-led full economic siege of the Syrian state, and after a fierce CIA-backed proxy war (Timber Sycamore) to oust Assad over that same period, this week has witnessed the huge milestone of the United States finally removing Syria from its state sponsors of terrorism list.

The designation itself had stretched back several decades, and it placed major hurdles in the way of international investment, but with the Monday move by the State Department many of the related sanctions have now been eased.

Jabat Al-Nusra, including the current US-backed President of Syria (center). Via Orient News TV/EPA

"Today’s action will help foster additional investment in Syria to promote political and economic stability," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, signaling new US efforts to help the war-ravaged country recover.

Of course, this came only after it was 'mission accomplished' in terms of overthrowing the secular Ba'ath government of Bashar al-Assad. He fled the country in December 2024, as Jolani's al-Qaeda linked militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham entered Damascus, and since then there have been widespread reports of an 'Islamization' of the capital and various other cities and towns. The first year of Jolani's rule witnessed thousands of religious minorities kidnapped or slaughtered - with Alawites and Druze particularly targeted, but also many Christians.

The whole population was brought to its knees by the long-running sanctions, resulting in runaway inflation and soaring food prices, as wages remained stagnant - also as petrol became hard to come by (and as US soldiers occupied Syria's eastern oil and gas fields which previously met domestic fuel needs).

The delisting exposes an ultra-ironic and deeply awkward reality: Al Nusra Front, which is Syrian Al Qaeda (and was founded by the self-declared president Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Jolani) is no longer deemed a terror organization. According to the NY Times:

The removal of the state sponsor of terror designation on Monday came after a U.S. congressional review process and after Syria joined the Global Coalition to Defeat the Islamic State, according to the State Department. The United States also revoked the terrorism designation for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a rebel group that was headed by Mr. al-Sharaa and that was previously known as the Al Nusra Front, the State Department said.

It also once again highlights that when Trump on multiple occasions met President Sharaa, he was literally palling around with with an officially designated terrorist (and who until recently had a $10 million FBI bounty on his head).

It wasn't just the US which supported jihadist groups seeking the overthrow of Assad, but Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE also played a big role (and Israel too at times admitted its support).

Saudi Arabia is among those welcoming the sanctions relief news on Tuesday. Its foreign ministry congratulated the Syrian government and people, expressing hope for security, stability and prosperity.

Can't make this up: Top Syrian envoy to the United States once kidnapped Americans for Nusra Front/HTS...

My interview with the Syrian chargé d'affaires to the US back when he was a member of Jabhat al-Nusra. pic.twitter.com/g0NSaH1WUp

— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) July 28, 2026

Syria had been on the State Sponsor of Terrorism for 47 years. So essentially the US waged a near half-century 'long war' for regime change against Bashar and his father Hafez al-Assad before him.

As for the lifting of sanctions, they ultimately hit the common populace the hardest - whether they be Christians, Muslims, Alawites or Druze - and so at the very least hopefully normal people can have some relief going forward.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 02:45

Normal Brits Are Unwittingly Funding Pro-Illegal Migrant Charities

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Every week millions of ordinary Brits buy a National Lottery ticket hoping for a life-changing win. What most never realise is that a chunk of that money has been systematically channelled into pro-migrant activist charities that push open borders and far-left ideology.

A GB News exclusive has revealed that the National Lottery has handed more than £140 million in donations to these organisations.

The figure draws on the Lottery's own Good Causes data showing over 2,500 projects and organisations have collectively received more than £143 million to support refugees since 1994, alongside a detailed five-year audit of Community Fund grants that identified £114.7 million flowing into refugee, asylum and migrant projects between July 2021 and June 2026.

EXCLUSIVE: 'When you buy your lottery ticket every week, were you aware that millions of pounds were going to left-wing migrant activist charities?'@MartinDaubney.

? Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604
?? Become a Friend of GB News: https://t.co/KHGzBF2vMr pic.twitter.com/4h2yHq4RZU

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 24, 2026

Presenter Martin Daubney put it bluntly on air: "When you buy your lottery ticket every week, were you aware that millions of pounds were going to left-wing migrant activist charities?"

Commentator Rafe Heydel-Mankoo went further, describing the situation as institutional capture. "We're talking about the capture of these institutions by far-left ideology that should have no place in the charitable world."

'We're talking about the capture of these institutions by far-left ideology that should have no place in the charitable world.'

Rafe Heydel-Mankoo fumes as a GB News exclusive reveals the National Lottery has given more than £140million in donations to pro-migrant charities. pic.twitter.com/eFyMPNxJt9

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 24, 2026

The recipients are not neutral soup kitchens. Among the largest beneficiaries in the recent audit were Refugee Action (£3.21 million), the British Refugee Council (£2.97 million), the Scottish Refugee Council (£1.75 million), Task Force Trust / Action Asylum (£1.62 million) and the Refugee and Migrant Centre (£1.10 million).

Smaller but telling grants went to groups running yoga and English classes for refugee women, comedy workshops branded "Comedy Asylum," alpaca encounters led by asylum-seeker women, and projects explicitly framed around anti-racism and the "fundamental right to move."

Refugee Action's own language is unambiguous. One statement captured in the coverage declares the goal of building "a future rooted in the fundamental right to move, underpinned by a commitment to anti-racism." The Scottish Refugee Council has pushed MSPs to "detoxify" the immigration debate. These are political positions dressed up as charity.

The timing of the spending is striking. Funding identified in the audit ran at £16.1 million in 2021/22, rose, then jumped sharply to £43.3 million in 2024/25 alone - more than double the earlier annual figures - before adding another £19.6 million in the most recent period. London and the North West alone accounted for more than £43 million of the total.

This is public money in all but name. Roughly 23 pence of every pound spent on a National Lottery ticket goes to charitable causes. The distributing bodies are public institutions with obligations of political neutrality. Yet year after year the cash has flowed disproportionately toward organisations whose core mission is to expand and defend mass migration at a time when Channel crossings, hotel costs, crime and community tensions remain at crisis levels.

The irony is impossible to ignore, given the organised theft of charity clothing banks across Britain and Ireland.

Migrants and organised groups have been emptying donation bins in broad daylight, selling the clothes at car boot sales or shipping them abroad, and fly-tipping the rest. Charities that depend on those donations to fund genuine local need have lost revenue while police often treat the thefts with shrugs about "need."

So the same communities that see their donated clothes stolen by migrants are, through their lottery tickets, helping bankroll the activist infrastructure that campaigns for still more arrivals. The circle is complete: public generosity is extracted at both ends.

National Lottery Good Causes material celebrates the funding as life-changing support for people forced to flee. In practice a significant portion has gone to groups that treat borders themselves as the problem and British public opinion as something to be managed or "detoxified."

The Charity Commission guidance even notes that charities may engage in political activity where it advances their purposes - an opening many of these organisations have driven a coach and horses through.

British families struggling with the cost of living, veterans' charities, children's hospices and community groups serving the indigenous population receive a fraction of the attention. Players who thought their tickets were supporting Olympic athletes, heritage projects or local youth clubs have instead been underwriting an ideological project they never voted for.

The Lottery is currently under public review of its Good Causes priorities for the first time in more than twenty years. That review arrives not a moment too soon. When an institution charged with distributing the public's spare change becomes a reliable cash machine for open-borders activism, the social contract that sustains it begins to fray.

Ordinary people are entitled to know exactly where their money goes - and to demand that "good causes" start looking a lot more like the country they still call home.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 02:00

Pitch For Defense Treaty And Moving US Military To Israel Is Insane

Authored by Jennifer Kavanagh via Responsible Statecraft,

On August 18, Israel bombed a non-operational Syrian air base, reportedly to derail Turkish plans to deploy military forces to the installation. The move drew swift condemnation from the United States, which did not receive prior notification despite its growing support for Syria, its alliance with Turkey, and the presence of thousands of U.S. military personnel based nearby, in Jordan and other parts of the region.

Is this the behavior of a "model ally"? The Jewish Institute for National Security of America seems to think so.

The group, which promotes "strategic cooperation" between the United States and Israel, tries to defend this position in its new report, "Shifting the Center of Gravity: Transforming the U.S.-Israel Security Partnership." It also lays out an ambitious set of proposals JINSA hopes will be part of a renewed 10-year U.S.-Israel Memorandum of Understanding (the current one expires in 2028). JINSA wants this "final" direct aid package to include $38 billion total and be "paired with new, mostly non-monetary initiatives that deepen and expand the U.S.-Israel partnership."

The recommendations in this report - which also include signing a mutual defense pact, basing U.S. military forces in Israel, and integrating Israeli technology into U.S. homeland defense - should be rejected as threats to U.S. national security. Not only would they cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars, but the prescriptions would make the United States less safe than it is today, by institutionalizing U.S. military entanglement with (and even dependence on) Israel and increasing the risk of future wars.

Instead the Trump administration should instead let the current MoU expire in 2028 with no replacement. With a strong military and nuclear arsenal, Israel can defend itself.

The JINSA report opens by heralding Israel as "America's most important ally," praising its military prowess, technological capability, and willingness to project military power in pursuit of supposedly shared goals. Missing from its account of Israel's support during Operation Epic Fury, however, is any mention of Israel's role in starting, escalating, or widening the war. These are certainly relevant details if we are judging whether the bilateral relationship is an asset or a liability to the United States.

The report sidesteps these realities and instead moves quickly to a set of 10 proposals that it argues will take the bilateral partnership to the "next level." From the perspective of protecting U.S. national interests, these ideas range from bad to insane.

Among the more worrying recommendations are those that suggest the United States should form a mutual defense treaty with Israel and begin shifting U.S. assets away from current positions in the Persian Gulf to a wider and permanent force posture in Israel - including a new CENTCOM headquarters and a "regional U.S. prepositioned arsenal hub." These would break long-established firewalls in the U.S.-Israel relationship and undermine U.S. interests.

Since 1975, the United States has had a security commitment to Israel, formalized in a memorandum of agreement, that promises "remedial action" should Israel face external threat. In recent years, this commitment has functioned as a de facto security guarantee on par with Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Still, the United States has intentionally refrained from signing a more explicit mutual defense agreement with Israel or basing U.S. personnel inside Israel's borders for two reasons.

First, it was Israel's preference. Jerusalem has long prided itself on the fact that only its soldiers directly defend the country and that it could fight its own battles as long as the United States offered military support. Second, Washington feared a more formal defense obligation or forward bases in Israel would increase the risk that the United States would eventually become entangled in Israel's ongoing border skirmishes or complicate relationships with U.S. Gulf state partners, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, on whom the United States relied to keep oil prices low.

The recommendations by JINSA, which count 43 retired U.S. officers - including 24 generals and nine admirals - on its roster discard these redlines. The mutual defense agreement they describe is framed as a narrow one that would be triggered "by the high bar of existential threat to Israel or Iranian use of weapons of mass destruction against U.S. bases in the region." But history tells us that, for Israel, the "existential threat" threshold is met easily and often.

In recent years, Israel has argued that Iran posed an existential threat while also claiming Hezbollah and Hamas as existential challenges to Israel's security. In other words, signing onto this agreement would all but guarantee U.S. involvement in future Middle East wars against Iran or possibly even Turkey, which some in Israel have already identified as the next target despite the fact that it is a NATO ally.

Of course, this is the goal of the recommendation: to ensure that no matter how far Israel falls in U.S. public opinion, the United States will be obligated to come to its defense, or risk undermining the credibility of its other commitments.

Basing U.S military forces inside Israel would only worsen the moral hazard engendered by U.S. support to the country. With U.S. personnel as a tripwire, Israel's leaders would feel assured that any attack would almost certainly drag in the United States, giving them little incentive to act with restraint. The risk that the United States might be ensnared in Israel's future military adventures would be high.

The second major focus of JINSA's recommendations covers the sharing of military technology and joint industrial projects between Israel and the United States. Most of these proposals demand that Israel gain the same level of access to U.S. technology as is enjoyed by the closest NATO allies who have spent years working to meet U.S. security standards. That Israeli officials are suspected of spying on the United States should be warning enough that giving Israel this type of access to sensitive U.S. technology would be a mistake.

The most dangerous of these tech sharing ideas, however, is one suggesting that Israeli technologies should be directly integrated into U.S. air and missile defense, specifically the Golden Dome project. This provision would mean that, if the Golden Dome project or something like it eventually covers the United States, Israeli technology would be part of its foundation, making the U.S. dependent on Israel for its own defense.

The United States tried something similar once before with Israel and the project had to be cancelled. The reason? Israel refused to allow the United States access to the source code needed to integrate the Iron Dome systems it planned to purchase into the U.S. air defense network. Experimenting with this type of cooperation a second time would be an act of self-harm on the part of the U.S. government.

Taken together, then, the JINSA proposals do not advance U.S. interests in the Middle East or elsewhere. In fact, they do just the opposite. They will increase the U.S. security burden and tie the United States down in the Middle East in ways that may quickly become irreversible while also undermining the physical security of the homeland. And they will do so at a cost of $38 billion from U.S. taxpayers in the form of annual military aid.

This outcome should be entirely unacceptable to any American president, regardless of the specific ally or partner in question and especially for a president who ran on promises to put U.S. interests first.

Elsewhere, President Donald Trump is pushing allies to defend themselves without so much (or any) U.S. support. He should do the same with Israel. The endless cycle of MoUs has run its course. The current one should be the last.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 23:25

This Is The Income A Family Needs To Live Comfortably In Every US State

Here’s the short version of what it takes for a family of four to live comfortably in 2026 by state:

In Massachusetts, you’d need nearly $330,000 a year - the highest figure in the entire country. Only three states clear the $300,000 mark: Massachusetts, Hawaii, and California. At the other end of the spectrum, Mississippi is the most affordable at about $188,000. That’s a full $142,000 less than what you’d need in Massachusetts.

So… how much does a family of four need in your state?

This map shows the pre-tax income a household with two working adults and two kids needs to live comfortably in every U.S. state.

The numbers come from SmartAsset (as of February 2026). They’re based on the familiar 50/30/20 budget: 50% for necessities, 30% for discretionary spending, and 20% for savings or other goals. These aren’t bare-minimum survival numbers—they’re what it takes to live pretty well while still putting money aside.

And as Visual Capitalist notes, Massachusetts sits at the very top of that list. Massachusetts tops the ranking, with a family of four needing $329,555 per year to meet the 50/30/20 benchmark.

Hawaii follows at $313,165, while California ranks third at $302,682.

Rank State Income needed for family of four (2026)

• 1 - Massachusetts - $329,555
• 2 - Hawaii - $313,165
• 3 - California - $302,682
• 4 - Connecticut - $298,189
• 5 - New Jersey - $295,110
• 6 - New York - $291,533
• 7 - Colorado - $283,213
• 8 - Washington - $281,798
• 9 - Oregon - $280,966
• 10 - Vermont - $280,384
• 11 - Alaska - $272,064
• 12 - New Hampshire - $267,904
• 13 - Rhode Island - $264,659
• 14 - Minnesota - $263,078
• 15 - Maryland - $257,837
• 16 - Maine - $250,931
• 17 - Montana - $249,434
• 18 - Pennsylvania - $247,936
• 19 - Illinois - $244,109
• 20 - Virginia - $242,944
• 21 - Nevada - $242,278
• 22 - Indiana - $241,696
• 23 - Wisconsin - $238,451
• 24 - Arizona - $236,870
• 25 - Utah - $235,789
• 26 - Delaware - $228,134
• 27 - Ohio - $226,221
• 28 - Idaho - $226,054
• 29 - Florida - $223,392
• 30 - New Mexico - $223,142
• 31 - Nebraska - $223,059
• 32 - Missouri - $217,734
• 33 - Georgia - $214,573
• 34 - Michigan - $214,323
• 35 - South Carolina - $212,909
• 36 - North Carolina - $212,410
• 37 - Wyoming - $212,410
• 38 - Oklahoma - $211,910
• 39 - North Dakota - $210,496
• 40 - Kansas - $207,917
• 41 - Iowa - $204,422
• 42 - Texas - $203,424
• 43 - West Virginia - $202,592
• 44 - South Dakota - $201,760
• 45 - Alabama - $198,931
• 46 - Louisiana - $197,933
• 47 - Tennessee - $197,267
• 48 - Arkansas - $195,437
• 49 - Kentucky - $194,854
• 50 - Mississippi - $187,533

Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York aren't far behind, bringing the number of states with comfortable-income thresholds above $290,000 to six.

Colorado and Vermont Make the Top 10

As expected, many of the highest income thresholds are concentrated in the Northeast and along the West Coast.

However, Colorado has the seventh-highest threshold in the country at $283,213, ranking above Washington and Oregon.

Vermont rounds out the top 10 at $280,384, despite having the second-smallest population of any U.S. state. Meanwhile, nearby states like New Hampshire, Maine, and Rhode Island all fall outside the top 10.

Just Six States Come in Below $200,000

Despite the wide range in living costs across the country, only six states have a comfortable-income threshold below $200,000 for a family of four.

Mississippi ranks lowest at $187,533, followed by Kentucky. The states of Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama also fall below the $200,000 mark.

The gap between Massachusetts and Mississippi exceeds $142,000 per year, meaning the Massachusetts benchmark is about 76% higher.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 23:00

DEA Seized 47 Million Fentanyl-Laced Counterfeit Pills In 2025

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) confiscated more than 47 million fentanyl-laced counterfeit pills and almost 10,000 pounds of fentanyl powder in 2025.

Just two milligrams of fentanyl is considered a lethal dose. Courtesy of the DEA

The seized narcotics are equivalent to 369 million lethal doses of fentanyl, according to an announcement made by the Department of Justice (DOJ) in an Aug. 21 post on X as part of the National Fentanyl Prevention and Awareness Day. So far this year, the total fentanyl seized by the DEA represents more than 239 million deadly doses.

"Just 2 milligrams - smaller than a grain of salt - can kill. This Justice Department is committed to combating the fentanyl crisis and keeping Americans and our communities safe," the post said.

In an Aug. 21 statement, the DEA asked the public to remain aware of the threat fentanyl poses to American communities, highlighting that the synthetic opioid is around 100 times more potent than morphine and about 50 times more potent than heroin.

Mexican cartels CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel are pressing fentanyl into counterfeit pills with a similar appearance to prescription medications such as Xanax, oxycodone, and Percocet. The criminal groups are also mixing fentanyl with cocaine, methamphetamine, and heroin. Both Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG were designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations last year.

According to the DEA, many people who were poisoned with fentanyl didn't even know they were ingesting the substance. The department asserted that the only safe medications are those coming from accredited and licensed medical professionals.

"Parents are often the first line of defense in protecting our children from the dangers of fentanyl and counterfeit pills," Farhana Islam, DEA New York Enforcement Division special agent in charge, said in the statement. "A single conversation can provide the knowledge that saves a life."

According to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, for fiscal year 2026 through July, the agency has seized 9,600 pounds of fentanyl. In the entirety of fiscal year 2025, 12,000 pounds were confiscated.

In a May 13 statement, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that synthetic opioids such as fentanyl accounted for the largest share of deaths by drug overdose in the United States last year. Psychostimulants, including meth, were in second place.

China Fentanyl Supply

According to a September 2025 report from the Government Accountability Office, most of the fentanyl trafficked into the United States comes from Mexico, and the chemicals and equipment used to manufacture narcotics come from China.

The Trump administration has taken action to stem the outflow of fentanyl precursors from China. In November 2025, FBI Director Kash Patel said at a press briefing that Beijing has reportedly committed to restrict the export of 13 fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico, Canada, and the United States.

In December 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order designating fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction. Trump warned that adversaries were trafficking fentanyl into the United States, partly to kill Americans.

"They're trying to drug-out our country," Trump said. "You can look throughout history. Look at China when they were loaded up with drugs; they were suffering greatly, and others were able to take them over.

"No bomb does what this is doing," Trump said.

Trump said there has been a 50 percent decline in the amount of fentanyl coming across the border, highlighting that Beijing has been working with Washington to cut down smuggling of these narcotics.

In June, Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) said during a House subcommittee hearing on the Chinese communist regime's role in the fentanyl crisis that Beijing subsidizes the export of at least 17 deadly chemicals that have zero legal use.

When China announces restrictions on one precursor chemical, manufacturers in the country simply shift to another precursor, according to Kim.

"Why does Beijing allow these factories of death to remain open? Because the Chinese Communist Party sees strategic value in America's suffering. It has repeatedly chosen geopolitical leverage over human life," she said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 21:45

Scandal-Plagued KPMG To Cut Australian Workforce Following Government Contract Suspension

A major consultancy firm under fire for misconduct in its audit business is cutting its local workforce following a suspension from applying for new government contracts.

KPMG’s U.S. headquarters at Two Manhattan West. Photo via Emily Louick Photography and Entropy Film Works Inc.

KPMG - one of the "Big Four" accounting firms alongside Deloitte, PwC, and EY - revealed on Aug. 24 that its annual revenue dipped 1 percent to $2.26 billion (US$1.62 billion) in fiscal 2026. The firm also warned of a rocky road ahead, with new CEO John Sams noting, "We expect difficult market conditions to continue in financial year 2027 and beyond."

A combination of soft market conditions and a continued drop in government reliance on consultants drove a 16.9 percent revenue decrease in KPMG's consulting business. However, the firm saw growth elsewhere, with revenue for its audit and assurance and its tax and legal arms rising 11 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively.

Following a review of its operating costs and the fallout from recent conduct and whistleblower controversies, KPMG will cut its workforce by 5 percent. The reduction will primarily impact the consulting and business services divisions, eliminating 27 partner roles and approximately 360 employees.

Despite overall revenue falling short of expectations, Sams noted that four out of the firm's five businesses grew. "This result reflects the resilience of our business and, above all, the commitment of our people in a very challenging year," he said. "We will continue to monitor performance closely, act when needed and consider carefully how the firm needs to be set up for the future."

The firm's leadership will not escape the financial hit, however, with average equity partner remuneration plunging 13 percent from the previous year.

KPMG is currently banned from bidding on federal government contracts until at least the end of September, pending the finance department's review of its conduct. Several state governments have similarly put the firm on ice.

The firm has been engulfed in an audit leak scandal since facing a federal parliamentary committee hearing in June. During the inquiry, it was revealed that some executives had misused confidential board papers - including Lendlease documents used to support audit bids for Westpac and Dexus - to win new work and mistreated a whistleblower who had raised concerns. Labor Senator Deborah O'Neill aired the allegations in parliament, and the firm was referred to the National Anti-Corruption Commission.

The scandal has already ousted numerous executives, including former CEO Andrew Yates and chair Martin Sheppard. Sams confirmed that several internal and external reviews will wrap up in the coming months.

"Their findings will inform the next phase of our action plan and help ensure we take all necessary action," Sams said. "We know there is more to do."

KPMG currently holds 297 active federal contracts worth $653 million.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 21:20

Macroeconomic Data Is Really A Tool For Government Intervention

Authored by Frank Shostak via Mises Institute,

It is common for commentators and economists to refer to something called the "economy," which sometimes performs well and, at other times, poorly. The "economy" is presented as an entity apart from individuals. Within this framework, the "economy" is assigned paramount importance, while the role of individuals is barely mentioned. It must be realized that, at no stage, does the so-called "economy" have a life of its own, independent from individuals.

According to this way of thinking, the "economy" produces goods and services. Once the output is produced by the "economy," what is required is its distribution among individuals in the fairest way.

In reality, goods and services are not produced in totality. Every individual is preoccupied with his own production and consumption of goods and services. Consequently, there is no such thing as the total real national output. Furthermore, it is not possible to establish the total real output given that, arithmetically, we cannot coherently add potatoes to tomatoes (i.e., heterogeneous goods). All that we could establish is the numerical amount of money spent on goods and services (i.e., the monetary turnover). The employment of the average price metric to convert the monetary turnover into the real output does not solve this issue since the average price cannot be meaningfully established.

For example, suppose two transactions are conducted. In the first transaction, one loaf of bread is exchanged for $2. In the second transaction, one gallon of milk is exchanged for $1. The price, or the rate of exchange, in the first transaction is $2 for one loaf of bread. The price in the second transaction is $1 one gallon of milk. In order to calculate an average price, we must add these two ratios and divide them by two; however, it is conceptually meaningless to add $2 exchanged for one loaf of bread to $1 exchanged for one gallon of milk. This in turn means that various macroeconomic indicators compiled by government statisticians are detached from the real world.

Consequently, various policies to influence an undefined entity-the "economy"-via undefined indicators inflict damage to the well-being of individuals. Even government statisticians admit that the whole thing is not real. According to J. Steven Landefeld and Robert P. Parker from the Bureau of Economic Analysis,

In particular, it is important to recognize that real GDP is an analytic concept. Despite the name, real GDP is not "real" in the sense that it can, even in principle, be observed or collected directly, in the same sense that current-dollar GDP cannot in principle be observed or collected as the sum of actual spending on final goods and services in the economy. Quantities of apples and oranges can in principle be collected, but they cannot be added to obtain the total quantity of "fruit" output in the economy.

By lumping the values of final goods and services together, government statisticians concretize the fiction of an "economy" by means of GDP statistics and other economic indicators. Once the "economy" is concretized, policymakers could navigate the "economy" along the growth path that is considered by the experts as desirable.

Thus, whenever the growth rate slips below the outlined path, government and central bank policymakers are expected to give the "economy" a suitable push by means of fiscal and monetary policies. According to Rothbard,

Bureaucrats as well as statist reformers. . . in order to get "into" the situation that they are trying to plan and reform, they must obtain knowledge that is not personal, day-to-day experience; the only form that such knowledge can take is statistics. Statistics are the eyes and ears of the bureaucrat, the politician, the socialistic reformer. Only by statistics can they know, or at least have any idea about, what is going on in the economy.

Moreover,

. . .one of the major reasons put forth for government intervention is that it "corrects" the market, and makes the market and the economy more rational. Obviously, if the government were deprived of all knowledge whatever of economic affairs, there could not even be a pretense of rationality in government intervention. Surely, the absence of statistics would absolutely and immediately wreck any attempt at socialistic planning.

The "Hampered" Environment and Macro-Economic Data

To succeed in a hampered market environment, entrepreneurs tend to respond to prevailing conditions, which are influenced by central bank and government policies. A businessperson cannot afford to ignore changes in various economic indicators such as GDP given that government and central bank officials react to changes in these indicators. For instance, if the central bank is expected to tighten its monetary stance in response to a strengthening in the GDP, a businessperson must take this into account in order to succeed in his business.

Note that the government-in order to construct various economic indicators-collects the data from businesses that are allocating resources to supply the government with the information. The construction of various economic indicators generates employment opportunities for economists and experts in other fields such as mathematics and statistics. These experts are employed not only to compile various economic data; they are also employed to interpret the data and provide guidance to businesses.

Do We Need to Know Macroeconomic Data in a Free Market Environment?

In a free market environment-free of government and central bank interference with businesses-it does not make much sense to measure and publish various economic indicators. This type of information will be of little use to entrepreneurs.

In a free market environment, what possible use can an entrepreneur make of information about the growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP)? Alternatively, what possible use can be made out of the data showing that the national balance of payments has moved into a deficit or a surplus? According to Rothbard,

The individual consumer, in his daily rounds, has little need of statistics; through advertising, through the information of friends, and through his own experience, he finds out what is going on in the markets around him. The same is true of the business firm. The businessman must also size up his particular market, determine the prices he has to pay for what he buys and charge for what he sells, engage in cost accounting to estimate his costs, and so on.

The only indicator to which entrepreneurs should pay attention to is profitability in their concerned activity. The higher the profit, the more a particular business activity is in tune with consumers' highest priorities.

Paying attention to consumers' wishes means that entrepreneurs have to organize the most suitable production structure for that purpose. The information on various macroeconomic indicators will be of little assistance in this regard.

What an entrepreneur requires is not general macroeconomic information, but rather specific information about consumers' demand for a product or a range of products. Government-aggregated macro-indicators will not be of much help to entrepreneurs. The entrepreneur would have to establish his own network of information concerning a particular venture. If a businessperson's assessment of consumers' demand is correct then he will make a profit. An incorrect assessment will result in a loss.

The profit-and-loss paradigm penalizes those businesses that have misjudged consumer's priorities and rewards those businesses who have exercised a correct appraisal. Hence, by the profit-and-loss framework, resources are withdrawn from those entrepreneurs who misjudged consumer's priorities to those entrepreneurs who accurately appraised consumer's priorities. According to Mises,

Thus, profit and loss are generated by success or failure in adjusting the course of production activities to the most urgent demand of the consumers.

We have seen that the construction of various economic indicators generates employment opportunities for economists and experts in other fields such as mathematics and statistics.

These experts are employed not only to compile various economic data, they are also employed to interpret the data and provide guidance to businesses. However, in a free unhampered market, businessmen in the pursuance of their goals are unlikely to require macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, there would be little interest in the services of economists, statisticians, and mathematicians in a free unhampered market.

Conclusion

Macroeconomic data is employed by government and central bank policymakers to navigate the so-called "economy" towards the growth path that was set by the policymakers. As a rule, this navigation culminates in the boom-bust cycle menace and a weakening in the process of wealth generation. By lumping the values of final goods and services together, government statisticians concretize the fiction of an "economy" by means of GDP statistics and other economic indicators.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 20:55

Limits On Border Patrol Arrests In California Lifted By Federal Appeals Court

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court on Aug. 24 rescinded a preliminary injunction that limited U.S. Border Patrol stops and arrests in California's Central Valley.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit found that a federal district court failed to properly analyze whether the plaintiffs had standing to seek forward-looking relief based on alleged harms in the past.

Standing refers to the right of someone to sue in court. The parties must show, among other things, a strong enough connection to the dispute to justify their participation in a lawsuit.

The Ninth Circuit sent the lawsuit challenging immigration detentions back to the district court to allow it to revisit its legal analysis after that court issued a preliminary injunction limiting U.S. Border Patrol's ability to stop and arrest people.

The new ruling, which does not dismiss the lawsuit itself, is a tactical win for the Trump administration because it eliminates - for now - a preliminary injunction that limited Border Patrol's ability to stop and detain people. The appeals court sent the case back to the federal district court for a limited do-over on the question of standing.

The lawsuit concerns Section 1357(a)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which allows Border Patrol agents to make warrantless arrests only if they have reason to believe two things: that the person is in the country unlawfully, and that the person is likely to escape before a warrant can be obtained. The plaintiffs in the case took the position that the agents made arrests without properly assessing whether people were actually flight risks.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) sued on behalf of the plaintiffs, the United Farm Workers of America and several farm workers, arguing that over a three-day period in Kern County, California, in January 2025, Border Patrol unlawfully detained individuals - including day laborers - without having a reason to believe they were likely to escape before a warrant could be issued. The enforcement project was known as Operation Return to Sender.

Residents of Bakersfield and the vicinity "started disappearing" in "the middle of citrus harvesting season," and this alarmed local residents who contacted the ACLU, the group said in a summary.

In a federal class action, the ACLU argued the Border Patrol was using "a cruel tactic to strip people of their right to an immigration hearing and coerce them instead into agreeing to "voluntary departure," which carries with it a ban on returning to the United States for up to 10 years.

In April 2025, U.S. District Judge Jennifer Thurston granted a preliminary injunction covering the Eastern District, which is California's Central Valley.

The order prevented Border Patrol from stopping people in violation of the Fourth Amendment or arresting them unless officers comply with federal law. The injunction required that to carry out an arrest, the officers must have a reasonable suspicion of unlawful presence in the country.

On appeal, the federal government argued that the district court only looked at past events in Kern County. Instead, the court should have looked at whether the same unlawful stops and arrests were likely to happen again soon, the government said.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled that the government was correct when it said that the district court failed to engage in the "correct standing analysis before granting preliminary prospective injunctive relief."

The U.S. Department of Justice, which represents the Border Patrol, hailed the new ruling.

"This is a good outcome, and it reinforces our confidence in related cases - like [Vasquez Perdomo v. Noem], which raises similar claims and where we've already prevailed once at the Supreme Court," a spokesperson told The Epoch Times.

In that case, in September 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court temporarily put on hold a lower court order restricting immigration stops in Southern California.

The court did not issue a formal opinion, but Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote a concurrence saying the plaintiffs did not have standing to pursue a forward-looking injunction. He said that past unlawful stops do not by themselves prove a real and immediate threat that the same individuals will be stopped again in the same way.

The Epoch Times reached out to the ACLU for comment. No reply was received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 20:05

Report: Taxpayers Funding $230 Million In Federal Grants Tied To 'Intersectionality'

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

The federal government has awarded about $230 million to programs referencing "intersectionality," with much of the funding originating during the Biden administration, according to a new report from two policy groups.

The Defense of Freedom Institute and Legal Insurrection Foundation identified 249 federal assistance records that used the term "intersectionality," an ideological framework that examines race, sex, class and other characteristics in assessing discrimination and privilege.

According to the report, about $140 million has been spent, while another $90 million remains obligated. Funding surged during former President Joe Biden's administration, peaking at $80.1 million in 2023, before declining under President Donald Trump.

Some grants remain active through 2030, and roughly 100 of the 249 awards identified by researchers appear to be ongoing.

"Amazingly, we have discovered that the federal government has been funding the Intersectionality movement," William Jacobson, founder of the Legal Insurrection Foundation and a Cornell Law School professor, told the New York Post. "This has to stop."

The grants encompass projects ranging from medical research to universities, museums and community programs. In some cases, intersectionality was one component of research receiving federal support rather than the primary purpose of the grant.

Among the awards highlighted was nearly $11 million to the New Hampshire Department of Health for cancer prevention and control programs. The program targeted populations experiencing health disparities, including what it described as an "intersectionality of gender and income inequality."

Other examples included $8.16 million to New York University for a diabetes equity research center and $14.25 million to Drexel University for a program intended to increase diversity among faculty studying health disparities.

The report's authors warn that embedding intersectionality into federal programs could encourage recipients to make decisions based on race and other protected characteristics while disguising those practices in academic terminology.

"This report shows just how deeply intersectional ideology has become embedded in the federal grant-making apparatus," Defense of Freedom Institute President Robert Eitel said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 17:40