Ferrari Skids As Wartime Disruptions Hit Deliveries

Ferrari shares fell as much as 3% in Milan after first-quarter results showed stronger-than-expected profit and cash flow, but the beat was overshadowed by a plunge in deliveries in the Middle East, as the U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted shipments to one of the luxury automaker's key markets.

Ferrari's first-quarter results were broadly ahead of expectations on profit, revenue, and cash flow, but deliveries across EMEA, which includes Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, were the clear outlier.

Regional shipments fell to 1,458 units, down 14% year over year and well below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1,651, underscoring a wartime-disrupted supercar market.

Here's a snapshot of the first quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Ebitda EU722 million, +4.2% y/y, estimate EU710 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Ebitda margin 39.1%, estimate 39.3%

Ebit EU548 million, +1.1% y/y, estimate EU541.5 million Ebit margin 29.7% vs. 30.3% y/y, estimate 29.7%

Net income EU413 million, +0.2% y/y, estimate EU405.7 million

Industrial free cash flow EU653 million, estimate EU516.1 million

Diluted EPS EU2.33 vs. EU2.30 y/y, estimate EU2.30

Revenue EU1.85 billion, +3.2% y/y, estimate EU1.82 billion

• Cars and spare parts revenue EU1.56 billion, +1.3% y/y, estimate EU1.54 billion

• Sponsorship, commercial and brand revenue EU218 million, +14% y/y, estimate EU203.9 million

• Other revenue EU74 million, +16% y/y, estimate EU70.6 million

Deliveries 3,436, -4.4% y/y, estimate 3,520

• EMEA deliveries 1,458 units, -14% y/y, estimate 1,651 (2 estimates)

• Americas Deliveries 1,030 units, +0.8% y/y, estimate 1,043 (2 estimates)

• Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan 255 units, +7.6% y/y, estimate 253.18 (2 estimates)

• Rest of APAC deliveries 693 units, +9.5% y/y, estimate 630.23 (2 estimates)

Ferrari confirmed its 2026 guidance, citing strong order-book visibility toward the end of next year.

Goldman analyst Christian Frenes commented on the guidance, noting:

2026 guidance confirmed with room for upgrades: Ferrari confirmed its guidance for FY26 revenues of ~€7.5bn (cons €7.57bn, GSe €7.89bn), adj. EBIT of >=€2.22bn (€2.25bn, GSe €2.32bn) and ind. FCF >€1.5bn (cons €1.56bn, GSe €1.61mn). We continue to expect Ferrari to upgrade its conservative 2026 guidance in 2Q/3Q26 as we expect mix to continue to accelerate towards 2H26 supported by the ramp-up of the F80 supercar and the 296 Versione Speciale. On current guidance, the FY26-30 CAGR to FY30 targets is in line with CMD guidance of 5% on revenue as well as the EPS level, with any upgrades implying management's willingness to grow above the medium-term growth floor.

Other analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Jefferies (buy)

• Analysts led by James Grzinic say group has managed to limit margin unwind despite major FX headwinds and a quarterly trough in shipments

• Say there "should be no surprise from today's reiteration of 2026 guidance"

JPMorgan (overweight)

• Analysts led by Jose Asumendi write that it was overall a strong quarter

• Say want to better understand how firm plans to offset some FX and fixed cost headwinds during conference call

Oddo BHF (neutral)

• Analysts say the results are broadly in line with expectations

• This may be a "slight disappointment" as Ferrari is usually expected to beat and messaging was "quite bullish" in a pre- close call

• Focus will shift to any commentary in the call around effects of Middle East crisis

• "Order book is described as 'further extending towards the end of 2027,' vs 'towards 2027' at the time of the FY25 results report," they note

Bloomberg data show that 77.4% of Wall Street analysts covering Ferrari have a "Buy" rating, while 22.6% are "Neutral" and 0% are "Sell."

Ferrari shares...

Ferrari is set to unveil its fully electric supercar, the Luce, later this month. As we noted last week, sports car buyers are shunning hybrids and chasing V-8s and V-12s.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 11:20

Job Openings Drop But More Than Offset By Record Surge In Hiring

Two months ago, the BLS reported that January job openings unexpectedly soared by 400K, the biggest increase since November 2024, to 6.946MM, the highest since last October. Then, one month later it turned out the jump was even higher than that when the BLS published the February JOLTS print, when we learned that the January job print was revised massively higher by another 300K to 7.240MM from 6.946MM, a surge of 690K and the biggest since 2022; February job openings however promptly tumbled back to 6.882MM, or just shy of the 6.890MM estimate. Fast forward to today when we just got the latest, March, job openings print which saw another modest drop, sliding from the upward revised February print of 6.922MM to 6.866MM, or practically in line with estimates of 6.850MM. 

According to the BLS, the number of job openings plunged in professional and business services (-318,000) but increased in finance and insurance (+98,000). There were also increases in Private Education and Health services, Construction and Manufacturing jobs, offset by a modest drop in Leisure and Hospitality. 

Meanwhile, the slid in government and federal job openings continues.

The modest drop in March job openings, coupled with the bigger drop in unemployed workers means that there were 373K fewer job openings than unemployed workers in March, an improvement from the 649K in February.

It also means that after rising back to 1.0x in January, in March the ratio of job openings to unemployed dropped back to 0.9x where it has generally been since last summer.

But while the job openings number was largely in line with expectations, recent revision gimmicks notwithstanding, the real surprise in this month's print was the number of Quits and Hires, both of which surged from 6 year lows. 

The number of hires soared to 5.554 million (+655,000) and the rate increased to 3.5% in March, more than offsetting decreases in those measures the previous month. The number of hires increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+108,000), and edged up in professional and business services (+165,000) and in accommodation and food services (+124,000). Hires decreased in federal government (-7,000).

As for quits, in March the number of quits also jumped, if less forcefully, by 125K to 3.171MM, led by quits in real estate and rental and leasing (+19,000). 

Putting the hiring surge in context, the 655K increase in March hires was the best month since +4.1 million print recorded in April 2020 in the aftermath of the covid crisis, and the second highest ever. Stripping away the one-time covid shock, March was a record month for hiring which in light of everything else in the economy, does not really make much sense.

Since this number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the March payrolls report was so much stronger (178K) than expected.

Overall, this was a solid JOLTS report and shows that after some significant weakness in late 2025, US labor market has managed to stabilize in early 2026. Of course, the report also lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Friday's jobs report will be. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 10:57

UK Gilt Yields Near 30-Year Highs As Political/Geopolitical Fears Spark Trussian Chaos

Anyone has been in the bond markets for more than a minute remembers the fall of 2022 when UK PM Liz Truss was unceremoniously dumped by her own party after serving 45 days in office as the Gilts market collapsed at unprecedented speed amid economic chaos triggered by her 'mini-budget' (and multiple ministerial resignations).

The reason we reminisce is that this morning - after a long-weekend closed - UK Gilt yields are soaring once again... to their highest level since 1998 (and are a stunning 80bps above the Trussian highs) as worries intensified over local government elections and the impact of soaring energy prices on the economy.

While bond investors around the world have signaled their discontent with faster inflation and potentially higher interest rates, the UK stands out as the most extreme example.

As Bloomberg reports, the combination of Britain’s messy political landscape, with unpopular Prime Minister Keir Starmer likely to face a leadership challenge, feeble economy and strained government finances have made it a target for traders looking for a weak link.

“The market has one eye on the fact that Starmer’s days are numbered, and if not numbered then a further move to the left of the political spectrum is inevitable in an attempt to head off support for the Green party,” said Lloyd Harris, head of fixed income at Miton Group.

The UK 10-year yield has jumped 70 basis points since the start of the war, the biggest increase among a basket of developed markets tracked by Bloomberg over that period.

The UK's problems are both domestic and foreign.

This coming Thursday’s May local elections should keep focus high on the lingering risks of a flare-up in UK political or fiscal premium.

Goldman Sachs traders believe that options markets are right to price-in relatively limited vol premium for the day itself.

The larger risks are likely in the form of either leadership challenges to the PM, or a shift in focus back to a constrained fiscal position on account of the evolution of energy prices and Gilt yields throughout the energy shock, and both of these are likely less immediate.

And even if these risks do materialise, we expect the impact on Sterling to come as bouts of currency underperformance rather than a more concerted trend lower, consistent with the pattern over the past year.

However, in the minds of investors, big losses at the ballot box raise the chances that either Starmer or his replacement would have to boost government spending to win back disaffected voters, which would further pressure the UK’s finances.

On top of that, the UK’s reliance on imported energy has left it vulnerable to an economic shock from the war in the Middle East.

With oil prices stuck above $100, the fear is that faster inflation will force the central bank to hike interest rates even further.

Markets are now pricing in three quarter-point rate hikes this year, up from two last week.

Additionally, Bloomberg reports that some have speculated that the traditional buyers of UK bonds, like pension funds, aren’t as active in the market as they used to be, which is also helping to drive up yields.

For decades, British defined-benefit pension funds bought long-dated bonds to match against their liabilities, allowing the UK to extend the average maturity of its issuance well beyond peers. Many of those programs are now winding down.

While Starmer has outlasted Truss stay in office, the bond market appears to be demanding/predicting/fearing his fate may well be the same... and soon (for better or worse).

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 10:40

US New Home Sales Soar For 2nd Straight Month As Prices Plunged In March

After collapsing in January (-17.6% MoM - worst since July 2013 amid weather disruptions), US New Home Sales have risen strongly for two straight months - up 8.9% MoM in February and up 7.4% MoM in March...

Source: Bloomberg

This lifted new home sales by 3.3% YoY, but the total SAAR remains below Dec 2025 levels...

Source: Bloomberg

New home sales have really gone nowhere in three years.

Median new home prices plunged in March from $407k to $387.4k - its lowest since July 2021.

That is the biggest gap between median and average prices on record...

Implying a relatively small number of large/high value sales (outliers or a long right tail) are dragging the mean upward, while most of the sales cluster on the lower side as the supply of new homes also plunged.

Mortgage rates are higher in the last month but had fallen notably during the reporting period for today's data...

By region, sales in the South, the nation’s biggest home-selling region, increased 11.1%, while purchases in the Northeast rebounded sharply.

March contract signings fell in the Midwest and West.

Homebuilders, who have been using a combination of incentives and price cuts, saw a pickup in prospective-buyer traffic in March after severe winter weather limited buyer demand early this year.

So it appears the market is doing Trump's job for him (despite rising rates) as price-drops improve affordability (which is shaping up to be a key issue in the midterm elections in November.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 10:30

Deregulate To Regulate

Submitted by Molly Schwartz, Cross-Asset Marco Strategist at Rabobank

We have maintained the view that markets are sorely underestimating the impact that the war in Iran will have on global economies and financial markets, and that one day there would come a reckoning. While markets are still highly volatile and the situation in the Middle East highly uncertain, yesterday’s price action suggested that some traders are getting a reality check.

Remember folks, we’re still in a ceasefire! The iffy terms as to whether other countries in the region like Israel, Lebanon, and the UAE were fair game were never decidedly concluded, though the Strait of Hormuz was expected to remain open.

The drone attacks came after announcements from FARS early in the morning yesterday that the IRGC had struck an American warship near Jask Island, around 160km from the chokepoint (that’s 100 miles in freedom units). CENTCOM immediately denied that any US military assets had been struck, but the warship did appear to be associated with the UAE.

The drone strikes escalated further, with Iran attacking critical energy infrastructure in the UAE, including drones striking the Fujairah port—the first such attacks against the UAE in nearly a month, though these were not the first attacks targeted in Fujairah since the onset of the war. Iranian state TV quoted a military official who said that there had been “no premeditated plan to attack oil facilities in UAE’s Fujairah,” but rather it was the “result of the US military’s adventurism to create passage for illegal ship transit” through the Strait.

Trump announced that the US would spearhead an initiative called “Project Freedom” to escort ships who are “neutral and innocent bystanders” out of the Strait. There have yet to be concrete details provided, though the process technically began yesterday morning “Middle East time.” According to Bloomberg, the lack of clear assurances has left “several shipowners” skeptical, so it may take a while before we see anyone take up the Administration’s offer for “clear passage.”

US Treasury yields surged higher yesterday in a bear flattening fashion, with the 2 year up 8.3bp, approaching the 4.00% level, while the 10 year climbed 7.2bp to approach 4.50%. This comes as brent crude oil grinded back to $114/bbl amid the escalation in regional tensions.

With tensions escalating, US 2 year breakevens have also started climbing higher, breaking their highest level since April 8. Meanwhile, 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards have been heading higher as well, breaking their highest level since February 13 at 2.45%. The US OIS curve is reflecting this increased market hawkishness as well, now suggesting around 8bp worth of Fed hikes by year end.

We have posed the idea that the existence of what appears to be the world’s worst ceasefire comes as US efforts to de-escalate so as to escalate down the line. It also appears that the Trump Administration may have been deregulating to regulate.

In other news, the New York Times reported that the US is considering “vetting AI models before they are released.” This comes several weeks after an emergency meeting was hosted with leaders from major institutions, including Powell and Bessent, after it was discovered that Anthropic’s newest unreleased model, Mythos, posed serious cyber security issues if leveraged by malicious actors.

In early 2025, Trump rolled back a Biden-era executive order to establish guidelines for testing and regulating AI systems in his own executive order called “Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence,” which seeks to “revoke certain existing AI policies and directives that act as barriers to American AI innovation, clearing a path for the United States to retain global leadership in Artificial Intelligence.”

The approach as presented by the NYT suggests a change in hear from the Administration, as the executive order would “create an AI working group that would bring together tech executives and government officials to examine potential oversight procedures,” as well as a “formal government review process for new AI models.” When and if this executive order comes to fruition, it might be a fun exercise to compare and contrast the Biden and Trump orders and see how much they have in common.

The US Treasury Department released its QRA yesterday, announcing USD 189bn in net borrowing for Q2, up USD 79bn from its Q1 estimates due to “lower projected net cash flows,” but “partially offset by the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance” which is USD 122bn higher than previously estimated. Additional details will be released on Wednesday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 10:15

US Services Surveys Disappoint In April Amid Stench Of Stagflation

Despite Manufacturing surveys solid (and US factory orders surging), expectations are for the Services sector surveys today to show stagflationary signals (weak growth, surging prices).

S&P Global's Services PMI disappointed in April (final), falling from its flash print of 51.3 to 51.0, but still up from multi-year lows below 50 in March, showing just marginal activity growth despite weak drop in sales volumes.

ISM Services PMI also disappointed in April, falling from 54.0 to 53.6 (vs 53.7 exp) amid tumbling new orders and high prices.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood it was not a pretty picture at all with new orders slowing dramatically, Prices Paid holding near cycle highs, and employment contracting for the second month in a row...

“Although business activity returned to growth after a small decline in March, it’s clear the pace of growth has kicked down a couple of gears since the start of the year," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The survey data are indicative of GDP growing at a modest 1% annualized rate.

“Growth may weaken further," warns Williamson, as service providers are reporting lower inflows of new business for the first time in two years, reflecting an intensifying hit to demand from the war in the Middle East.

“The direct impact of the war has been most evident in consumer-facing services, as high prices have led to a pull-back in discretionary spending on activities such as holidays and recreation, though transport has also been curbed by high fuel prices and travel disruptions." 

However, a secondary additional driver of renewed weakness is a drop in demand for financial services, in part linked to heightened uncertainty about market outlooks but also reflecting expectations of higher inflation and interest rates, which has hit real estate and lending activity.

But it's not just weak growth/orders, prices are surging too... broadly.

“A further increase in input cost inflation reflected not just higher fuel prices but a widening spread of goods and services rising in price, as well as higher wages, which will feed through to consumer price inflation in the coming months."

The scale of the price rises will put pressure on the Fed to prevent higher inflation becoming entrenched, but the smell of stagflation remains in the air - central bankers' arch-nemesis.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 10:05

Shale Giant Diamondback Is Boosting Oil Output "Immediately" On Soaring Prices

With oil prices soaring to multi-year highs, it was only a matter of time: Diamondback Energy, one of the largest shale oil producers, announced it is boosting crude output in response to rising prices caused by the Iran war.

The company that operates in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is pumping more than 520,000 barrels a day, 3% more than its original full-year guidance, and plans to sustains those levels, Chief Executive Officer Kaes Van’t Hof wrote in a letter to shareholders on Monday.

“We believe there is a legitimate supply-demand imbalance and that the associated price signal is the catalyst to begin to grow production,” he wrote. “Because of our positioning, our preparation and this price signal, we are bringing incremental barrels to the market immediately.”

Van’t Hof’s comments come just days after supermajors Exxon Mobil and Chevron told investors they wouldn’t significantly alter production plans in response to the unprecedented war-drive disruption to Persian Gulf energy supplies. Exxon’s plan to raise Permian Basin output by 12% this year pre-dated the Iran war, while Chevron is sticking to plans to keep production from the region essentially flat. 

Diamondback CEO Kaes Van’t Hof

However, now that one company has broken the seal, expect a rush to hike output across the US E&P sector.

As Bloomberg notes, Diamondback isn’t the first shale specialist to see the Middle East conflict as an opportunity to bolster production. Billionaire Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources made a similar pledge last month. And who can blame them: crude futures are up by more than 50% since the war in Iran began in late February, and after all, when it comes to commodities, the age-old saying is that "the cure for high prices is high prices."

Of course, with more output comes more capex: Diamondback is also is raising spending guidance by 4% this year to about $3.9 billion, with plans to add as many as three additional drilling rigs and run a handful of frack crews for the rest of this year, Van’t Hof wrote.

Diamondback's CEO made waves exactly one year ago when he warned markets that the US is "at a tipping point" saying the US shale output has peaked, and slashed his capex. What a difference a year makes. 

The company is also working through its backlog of ready-made wells that have already been drilled and await fracking as a way to unleash more oil more quickly.

After using a stoplight analogy in investor letters over the past year to describe his thinking on whether to accelerate or hit the brakes on output, Van’t Hof said Monday that “the light has turned green, and Diamondback is well-positioned to respond to the current macro environment.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 09:30

Ford Sales Post Sharp 14.4% Decline In April As EV & Hybrid Sales Plunge

Ford Motor Company posted a sharp sales decline in April as demand for new vehicles cooled across much of the auto industry, with the company reporting a 14.4% drop year over year to 178,667 vehicles sold, according to Autoevolution.

The weaker month pushed Ford’s year-to-date total to roughly 636,000 deliveries — still ahead of Hyundai Motor Company and Kia Corporation, but well behind Toyota Motor North America.

Autoevolution writes that the slowdown comes as automakers face softer demand after last year’s buying rush, when consumers moved quickly to purchase cars ahead of potential tariff increases. Higher gas prices tied to geopolitical tensions and persistently expensive vehicle prices have also made buyers more cautious.

While General Motors has yet to release April results, several rivals have already reported weaker numbers. Toyota’s U.S. sales fell 4.6% last month to just over 222,000 vehicles, bringing its year-to-date total to nearly 792,000. American Honda Motor Co. was nearly flat, while Hyundai and Kia also slipped slightly after a strong start to the year, though their combined sales still topped 565,000 through April.

Ford’s weakness was broad-based. EV sales dropped nearly 25%, hybrid sales plunged 32.5%, and traditional gas-powered vehicles fell 11.8%. Truck sales declined more than 14%, SUVs were down 16.6%, and the company’s bread-and-butter Ford F-Series slid nearly 14% to just over 61,000 units. Sales at Lincoln were even worse, falling more than 21%.

There were a few bright spots. The Ford Mustang climbed more than 18% in April, while the Ford Bronco rose more than 18% to around 17,000 sales. The Ford Explorer and Ford’s heavy-duty truck lineup also posted gains. On a year-to-date basis, Mustang remains Ford’s strongest performer with sales up roughly 39%, followed by the Explorer, Transit van, Ranger pickup, and Bronco. At Lincoln, the Lincoln Aviator remains one of the few bright spots, with sales up nearly 10% so far this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 09:15

The post Monopolization in the Hospital Industry is a Problem, but Patent Monopolies Make It Worse appeared first on CEPR.

Romanian Pro-EU Government Collapses After No-Confidence Vote, Currency Tumbles To Record Low

Lawmakers toppled Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's pro-EU ​government in a no-confidence vote on Tuesday, putting at risk the country's sovereign debt ratings, its access to ‌EU funds and the stability of its currency. Of the valid votes cast in the parliament, 285 voted for the motion of censure and four against, exceeds the 251 signatures collected last week for the motion and above the 233 needed to pass, the official parliamentary count showed.

Romania's Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan

Bolojan has led a minority government since late April when the Social Democrats - the largest party in parliament - called for his resignation and then walked out of the four-party coalition and teamed up with the far-right opposition to file a no-confidence vote.

Although a snap election looks unlikely, financial markets are concerned that ​the turbulence could mean Bucharest wavers in its commitment to narrowing the European Union's biggest budget deficit. Romania's leu ⁠currency fell to a record low against the euro ahead of Tuesday's vote.

The current coalition came to power 10 months ago with a ​view to containing the gains of the far right after a series of polarizing elections, and it had begun to reduce the deficit, narrowly ​avoiding a ratings downgrade from the last rung of investment grade. But the Social Democrats - without whom a pro-EU majority cannot be achieved - have repeatedly clashed with Bolojan as his austerity measures have hit their voters and patronage networks, while their popular support has bled away to the far right.

Nevertheless, opinion polls still show Bolojan is ​the most popular politician in the ruling coalition. Bolojan will stay on as interim premier with limited powers until a new government is approved by ⁠parliament. 

"Can anyone say how Romania will function from tomorrow, do ​you have a plan?" Bolojan asked lawmakers before the vote. "Romanians will understand that you can govern differently, with respect for public money, and you cannot undo that."

Romania's ‌next ⁠parliamentary election is not due until 2028. It has never held an early election and analysts say the likelihood of one now is small as the opposition hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) leads in opinion polls.

Centrist President Nicusor Dan, who nominates the prime minister, is now expected to invite parties for negotiations and attempt to rebuild the four-party pro-EU coalition under a different member of Bolojan's Liberals or perhaps a technocrat as prime minister. The Social Democrats (PSD) have often said ​they would rejoin a pro-EU coalition ​under a different premier.

Bolojan's party ⁠has so far ruled out collaborating with the Social Democrats again, though some senior party members have pushed for reconciliation.

There is life after the no-confidence vote," PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu told reporters. "We want to ​keep broadly this coalition."

A Romanian Liberal member of the European Parliament, Siegfried Muresan, called the alliance between the ​leftists and AUR ⁠in support of the no-confidence motion "anti-European".

"The formation of a new government will become their responsibility," he told Reuters. However, Liberal deputy prime minister Catalin Predoiu said his party "must leave its options open".

Romania must continue to shrink ​its deficit as well as implement reforms in order to tap some 10 ​billion euros worth of EU recovery and resilience funds before an August cutoff date. The deficit is expected to narrow to 6.2% of economic output this year from ​more than 9% in 2024.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 09:00

 

 

I wanted to share a quick update as to what’s been keeping me occupied during the run up to the release of the new book.

The past few weeks have been pretty busy and full of surprises. We have been designing a dedicated website for the How Not to Invest book, and working with the team at Off Menu has been much more fun than I expected.

But the biggest surprise has been the book’s Audible version.

Harriman House asked me to record the audio version of the book. Like an idiot, I said, “Sure, why not? How hard can it be?”

Really, really hard.

Previously, I labored under the false impression that I knew how to both read and speak. As it turns out, I was wrong. The combination of the two is its own skill set. I drop the letter “S” at the end of words, I slur syllables, I put emphasis on the wrong words in a sentence, and I transpose adjacent words on an all too regular basis.

Then there is the modulation. I am not aware of my gain or volume. I speak too loudly, projecting to the back of the room (Wrong approach). To say nothing of my speed, which as a New Yawker is too fast (S L O W  D O W N).

Another surprise? They LIKE my awful NY accent (“it’s authentic”)

You sit in a 6 X 6 glass booth in front of a hypersensitive mic that picks up everything. Shifting your weight in the chair ruins a sentence. Moving your feet, touching your clothes, rolling up a sleeve, touching the glass tablet a smidge too hard — all killers.

This is before we get to the myriad of sounds the body produces beyond your control. I had no idea about the lip smacks, tongue clicks, the throat gurgles and burps that phlegms with noise that affect the quality of sound. The milk in your coffee makes your mouth too sticky. And the stomach! Even if you eat, it makes a panoply of noises, growls, whines, and complaints of which I was wholly unaware.

To say nothing about pronunciation: Proper names and cities are one issue, but even worse are the words that I read or write all the time but don’t necessarily speak aloud. I imagined I knew how to pronounce them: capitalization, iterative, capricious, conscientious, and so on. It’s really quite embarrassing to realize that I cannot properly pronounce half of my vocabulary.

Surprisingly, you cannot just grind away at this. Even with regular breaks, lots of hot tea, and water, you have at most 5 hours before your voice gives out, and your brain can no longer identify words on the page. It is immensely harder than I expected.

I am about 80% through the recording, which took four separate sessions, and I finally feel like I am getting the hang of it. I’d like to go back and rerecord all the prior chapters, but the director at MacMillan said it was great. (Never believe anything anyone with the title of “director” says.)

It’s been 15 years since I last wrote a book. I forgot all the work that happens when the writing process is over.

Hopefully, the website will be live this week. I am beginning to schedule all of the podcasts and Q&As to promote it. Reach out to Tina (tina.joell at harriman-house dot com) or Lucy (lucy.vincent at harriman-house dot com)  at Harriman House if you want to learn more.

~~~

The paperback is out today at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Books-A-Million, Bookshop, Hudson, or wherever you buy your favorite books!

 

Previously:
How NOT to Invest Paperback Arrives! (May 4, 2026)

 

 

 

If you want to learn more about how the book was made, any related media appearances or background, get unique bonus material, or just ask a question, you can sign up here: HNTI -at-RitholtzWealth.com.

 

 

The post Adventures in Recording an Audio Book appeared first on The Big Picture.

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads:

• Speak, Yuppie: Yuppies were called into being by the forces that were remaking the economy in the 1980s.Resurrecting the Y-word as the lens for our current meritocratic discontents — and asking what the urban professional class actually owes the rest of the country. (New York Times)

• The Last Days of Butter Ridge: The Watsons were dairy farmers for generations, the rhythms of their lives defined by their cows. Until this spring. An elegy for one Pennsylvania dairy farm, told as a microcosm of the consolidation that’s quietly remaking American agriculture. (New York Times) see also Farm bankruptcies jumped 46% in 2025 as debt loads and costs rise: Chapter 12 filings climbed in the US. That’s a third straight increase annually as higher production costs and expanding borrowing put new pressure on farmers in 2026. A 46% jump in Chapter 12 filings is not a vibes story — it’s farmland deflation, input inflation, and the trade war all hitting at once. (Investigate Midwest / Farm Bureau)

• Inside L.A.’s Fake Courtroom Show Machine: Byron Allen’s syndicated TV-court empire keeps churning out reality-judgment programming. The economics are weirder than the verdicts. Entertainment Studios might be one of the busiest production facilities in Los Angeles right now. I got the scoop on the courtroom shows it churns out — and a lead role in an episode. (LA Material)

• Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases: Leaked documents show IRGC secretly acquired system and used it to guide strikes during war in March. Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite to target US military bases across the Middle East. The China-Iran axis just became a lot more concrete — and a lot more dangerous. (Financial Times)

• How YouTube Took Over the American Classroom: The Chromebook generation now learns from the algorithm by default. Teachers, administrators, and Google all benefit; the question is whether the kids do. Parents find their kids captive to the video streaming site on their school-issued devices; for one, it was 13,000 YouTube videos in three months. (Wall Street Journal)

• Ukraine’s rapid rise as an anti-drone powerhouse: Necessity makes the best R&D lab. Kyiv’s counter-drone industry now exports back to NATO. In only four years after the Russian invasion, Ukraine went from being a country knocked back on its heels and scrambling for military aid to emerging as a leading provider of battlefield-tested counter-drone expertise and exporter of anti-drone weapons systems. How did this happen? Let’s find out. (New Atlas)

• How science is finally making real progress in treating allergies—and what it means for you: After decades of limited options, allergy care is may no longer a one-size-fits-all treatment approach. (Nat Geo) see also About pain and other ailments: “What wound did ever heal but by degrees?” – Othello, William Shakespeare. (Andrea Petkovic)

• Inside the Secret Group Chats Fueling MAGA’s Messaging Machine: Ashley St. Clair revealed the coordinated system shaping pro-Trump narratives online. (Slate)

• Why Does Music in Science Fiction Sound Like That? Imagining the sound of other worlds has a long past—and persistent creative limits. On theremins, synths, and why we still hear ‘the future’ as eerie tones. A fun cultural-history detour (JSTOR Daily)

• How did Banksy put up a statue in central London? The statue appeared on a plinth in Waterloo Place on Wednesday. A low-loader, some traffic cones and “the sort of dudes who can set up a Metallica concert in 24 hours” – this was all Banksy needed to install his latest artwork in central London. Under the cover of darkness, the street artist erected a statue on a plinth showing a besuited man walking forward, blinded by a flag covering his face. How did he do it? And what will happen next? The logistics of pulling off a Banksy stunt are arguably more impressive than the art itself. A short, fun read on guerrilla installation craft. (BBC)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this past weekend with Lawrence Calcano, CEO and Chairman of iCapital, The firm is a fintech platform built to be the OS for alternative investments and complex products for financial advisors, wealth managers, and banks. The firm has over $1.2 trillion in active global assets on platform, across 2,455 funds used by 123,ooo financial professionals.

 

Globalization weakened when major powers started treating trade as a tool for coercion, deterrence, and social change

Source: Bruce Mehlman’s Age of Disruption

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Big Shake-Up: Putin Fires Head Of Aerospace Forces After Devastating Ukrainian Drone Attacks

There are reports out of Russia of another high level firing within the defense ministry. This time, President Putin has reportedly sacked the head of Russia's Aerospace Forces, which is the armed services branch responsible for the country's air defenses.

Moscow-based news outlet RBC reports that General Viktor Afzalov has been replaced by Colonel General Alexander Chaiko. Afzalov had first been appointed to the command post in 2023.

Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

However, the Kremlin did not immediately comment on or confirm the shake-up, but it comes amid growing anger among the Russian populace and among leadership following a series of major Ukrainian drone attacks.

For example, the major Black Sea hub of the Tuapse Oil Refinery has been struck four times in the last several weeks, creating a local environmental disaster which has also seen days of large fires.

The recent series of highly destructive Ukrainian drone attacks has even reached faraway Perm, near the Ural mountains, where an oil complex there was reported struck.

These latest drone waves have not been stopped by Russian anti-air defenses, and Ukraine's cheap but highly capable drone attacks have appeared to easily thwart any countermeasures.

As for the new head of the Aerospace Forces, he takes command amid a high pressure situation. If he can't stop the ongoing drone onslaught, then he too could face quick removal:

Alexander Chaiko was born in 1971 in the Moscow region. He graduated from the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School. According to the Ministry of Defense website, he served in positions ranging from reconnaissance platoon commander to commander of the First Tank Army of the Western Military District. In 2001, he graduated from the Frunze Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces. In 2012, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff.

He held the positions of deputy commander of the combined arms army of the Central Military District, commander of the combined arms army of the Western Military District, chief of staff – first deputy, and commander of the troops of the Eastern Military District. In 2019, he was appointed deputy chief of the General Staff.

Chaiko has already been sanctioned by the European Union, as he's stood accused serving as a lead commander during the Russian occupation of Bucha - after which Moscow was accused of indiscriminate killings of civilians, which the Kremlin denies.

RBK reported that Colonel-General Aleksandr Chaiko (left) was appointed commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov (right).

Chaiko is a former Ground Forces officer who began the 2022 invasion as commander of the Eastern Military… pic.twitter.com/3FOUfTI4KA

— John Hardie (@JohnH105) May 4, 2026

Meanwhile, last week Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced "a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit the potential of Russia's war."

Despite Ukrainian forces being slowly rolled back on the battlefield in the east, drone warfare remains about the only leverage that Kiev has at this point.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 02:45

Germany's Inflation Scapegoat: Why Hormuz Is A Convenient Cover Story

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Over the weekend, economist Gerrit Heinemann warned in Bild of a drastic increase in food prices in Germany. The scholar from Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences focused his analysis on the massive rise in fertilizer prices. A significant share of these—estimated at roughly one third of global production—is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the dual blockage of the strait, this sector too has entered a state of global scarcity, forcing farmers worldwide to adjust prices, which ultimately feeds through to consumer prices.

Heinemann concludes that Germany’s food price index could rise by as much as ten percent this year. In Berlin, a familiar narrative has already taken hold, and there is broad agreement: the Hormuz crisis alone is responsible for the disaster. Yet core inflation had already reached around 2.7 percent year-on-year in March. Price increases across the entire spectrum of goods—especially energy and housing, which has become scarce due to migration—have accompanied Germany’s economic decline for quite some time. Only the dramatic slump in private investment and general consumer restraint have slightly dampened price pressures in recent years.

What stands out in this development is the steady upward revision of inflation forecasts. In March, there was consensus between the Economics Ministry and leading research institutes that inflation would come in at around three percent this year. By early April, after one month of the Iran crisis, economists at the International Monetary Fund were projecting price increases of five to six percent.

Now comes the ten-percent hammer in food prices. One could also put it this way: the culprit for rising prices in Germany has been found. Media and government point at every opportunity to Washington, where the supposed architect of the disaster allegedly sits: Donald Trump. But does this thesis hold?

Simultaneous with the abrupt rise in inflation forecasts are the recurring downward revisions of Germany’s economic growth rates. After more than two decades of eco-socialist restructuring, loose monetary policy, and now rapidly expanding public debt, Germany’s economy can be described simply: it is retreating in a dramatic process of contraction, while prices will continue to rise amid a crisis of productivity and investment. Incidentally, food prices rose by more than 40 percent between 2019 and 2025 as financial markets and the broader economy were flooded with cheap credit during the lockdown period, as documented by the Federal Statistical Office.

Hormuz is a cheap diversion from the disastrous policies that the firewall party cartel has been pursuing for some time in order to build a new green socialism. We are witnessing a radical paradigm shift not seen since the end of the Second World War. It is common knowledge that cheap energy, technological openness, a functioning market economy, and stable money were the factors that once underpinned Germany’s economic success.

It is now proving costly to be at odds with its most important energy and raw materials supplier, Russia, and to have effectively declared perpetual conflict with Moscow. History teaches us that ideological fervor always goes hand in hand with fanaticism. Blowing up one’s own nuclear capacity was, quite literally, a reckless gamble—an act of blind ideological infantilism rarely seen anywhere in the world in our era.

Together with Brussels, Berlin is pursuing a scorched-earth policy when it comes to returning to a market-based energy framework and sound regulatory principles. No matter how hard the current energy crisis hits, German policymakers remain committed to their green-socialist ideology. By clinging rigidly to CO₂ rent-seeking, grotesque climate regulation, and an energy policy run amok, the country has maneuvered itself into a geopolitical straitjacket. Germany’s economy now has its back against the wall. And Berlin has found its solution: the German middle class will be bled dry to finance the capital’s debt excesses and conceal the scale of the disaster.

What is dramatically worsening the situation in recent weeks is a series of attacks worldwide on refinery infrastructure. Whether in the United States, Australia, or war-affected Russia, the problems are intensifying. For Germany, an additional blow is that Russia will halt the transit of Kazakh oil to the Schwedt refinery via the Druzhba pipeline.

It is high time to develop domestic energy resources—fracking gas and drilling in the North and Baltic Seas—to signal to markets and consumers that rational policymaking has returned. Only then could Germany credibly declare the end of its post-Enlightenment delusion. A Europe-wide initiative to finance and build nuclear capacity would be urgently required. Yet Brussels and Berlin have decided otherwise: if necessary, access to energy will be rationed. The expansion of eco-socialism is to continue at all costs—energy thus becomes an absolute lever of political power over citizens, who are suffering from the ideological rigidity and intellectual failure of European policymakers to reduce energy dependence through market mechanisms and negotiated solutions.

The inflation problem is self-inflicted. Only a completely distorted and ideologically colored media narrative surrounding the Iran crisis and the consequences of centralized energy policy has so far prevented the public from correctly perceiving the economic disaster. The year 2026 will likely be the year in which personal escapism carries severe monetary consequences.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 02:00

Horrifying "Rape Festival" Sparks Worldwide Outrage

Videos circulating on social media out of Nigeria have ignited shock and horror after appearing to show groups of men chasing, stripping and sexually assaulting women in broad daylight during a traditional “fertility" festival in the country’s southern Delta State, according to news.com.au.

The incidents unfolded on March 19 during the Alue-Do festival in Ozoro, a triennial rite in the Uruamudhu community of the Ozoro Kingdom. Intended to invoke blessings for married women struggling with conception, the event involves processions to a community shrine. Local customs reportedly advise single women to remain indoors. However, footage depicted young women fleeing through crowded streets, pursued by mobs who tore at their clothing, groped them and subjected them to public humiliation while bystanders filmed and, in some cases, appeared to cheer.

The graphic clips, which spread rapidly on platforms including X, Instagram and Facebook, have fueled national outrage, trending hashtags such as #endsexualviolence.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Every Woman is Worthy® (@everywomanisworthy)

Delta State police have responded with arrests. Authorities confirmed that at least 15 people, including a community leader and several young men identified in the videos, are in custody, the BBC reports. Police spokesperson Bright Edafe described the scenes as “alarming, disgusting and embarrassing,” adding that suspects have been transferred to the State Criminal Investigation Department for prosecution. Investigations continue, though officials noted that no formal complaints of rape have been filed to date. Some women reportedly required hospitalization.

One of the alleged victims told police she was attacked within minutes of arriving at the event to the "rape festival."

“Immediately I came down, they started shouting ‘hold her, hold her, that’s a woman’, and they swooped on me like bees,” the alleged victim said, according to the Daily Express. “A large crowd started pulling my clothes until they stripped me naked. They were pulling my breasts and touching my whole body … I was shouting for help.”

Women’s rights activists claim this isn’t the first event where mass rape has occured.

“This is not just about what happened in those videos,” said Rita Aiki, an activist with the Women’s Rights Advancement and Protection Alternative, the New York Post reported. “It’s about the conditions that make it possible for this kind of violence to happen in public, with so many people watching and no one stepping in.”

“It tells you something about what is being normalized in a given society,” she added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 23:00

Meta Raising $13 Billion SPV For Texas Data Center As Its CDS Hits Record

Back in January, just days before the latest private crash swept across markets, we reminded readers that one of the biggest abusers of private credit SPVs was none other than Meta which as of 2025 was "already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt." We then showed a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with private credit ground zero - Blue Owl - titled "Project Beignet", which was created for Meta's Hyperion data center, "none of this touches META's balance sheet." We said to expect "hundreds of billions of these in 2026."

As a reminder, META is already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt. Here is a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with Blue Owl "Project Beignet" for the Hyperion data center. None of this touches META's balance sheet.

Expect hundreds of billions of these in 2026 https://t.co/794EgSiiZ9 pic.twitter.com/7hMyVW6Lno

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2026

Little did we know that the first big (ab)user of SPVs in 2026 would be none other than Meta again. 

According to Bloomberg, the company formerly known as Facebook, is working on another financing package wrapped as a special purpose vehicle, this time for a data center in El Paso, that could total over $13 billion -  or roughly half of the Beignet - underscoring Big Tech’s growing reliance on debt to bankroll the infrastructure behind the AI boom, which as we noted earlier is now expected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2027 capex spending.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are leading the process this time, according to Bloomberg sources. And just like Project Beignet, a large majority of the financing is expected to be in the form of debt, with the rest equity.

And indeed, Bloomberg confirms that Meta’s effort is similar to an almost $30 billion financing package it completed last year for a data center site in rural Louisiana, and which included $27 billion in debt which Meta raised through a special purpose entity known as Beignet Investor, which we discussed in January, and which is named after the popular Louisiana pastry.  

The food theme has persisted, and this latest transaction, dubbed Sopaipilla, is named after a fried pastry popular in the Southwestern parts of the country.

But why go the extra mile to come up with another complicated scheme instead of getting secured financing? Simple: there is little direct demand for the paper, and second, Meta is spending more than $10 billion on the data center in El Paso, which is a material jump from prior projections. By the time the data center is completed, the final bill will be even greater. 

The gigawatt-sized data center is expected to come online in 2028, and will support more than 300 on-site jobs once completed. Meta has also said its construction needs will grow given the increased investment, and now anticipates 4,000 temporary workers to be on site during the peak construction period.

When Meta sealed Beignet’s deal, where Blue Owl was the co-investor at the Project Beignet Holdings level, the company turned to PIMCO as its anchor lender on the transaction. With Sopaipilla, there is nobody to anchor the deal; instead Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan - who have zero interest in holding on to the debt - will quietly try to syndicate the debt to other capital markets investors. 

Since the Beignet transaction, data center financing has exploded across investment-grade and junk-bond markets, as we first reported last October in "AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too, Quietly Surpassing All Banks To Become The Largest Sector In The Market." In the high-yield space, more than $20 billion of bonds and loans have launched in the past three weeks alone, while Meta itself raised $25 billion in bonds last week. Still, investors have shown some signs of fatigue amid the deluge, and nowhere more so than in Meta's own Credit Default Swaps which are trading at record wides.

Beside concerns about the company's debt, there are even bigger concerns over Meta’s outlook, as investors worry that the company’s massive investments in AI won’t pay off... just like they failed to do when the company which changed its name to Meta spent tens of billions on the Metaverse, with abysmal returns. The company’s shares are down about 7.5% this year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 22:35

Trump's "Project Vault" Plans To Initially Buy Rare Earths From China

As we reported in February, the US Export-Import Bank’s proposed rare earth stockpiling initiative would initially source critical minerals from anywhere in the world - including China, an official involved in the project revealed to Bloomberg. The $12 billion Project Vault would later shift to a replenishment model that prioritizes domestic production first, followed by allied nations and other sources as a last resort, executives including Ex-Im Chief Banking Officer Brian Greeley said lastt week, unveiling some of the first details publicly announced on the project.

Greeley spoke alongside representatives of Glencore Plc. and Hartree Partners LP, which will be among trading houses procuring materials for Vault. The project aims to build an immediate buffer against critical mineral supply shocks while using future purchases to send a stronger demand signal to US and friendly-nation producers. 

Vault — which combines about $2 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Ex-Im loan — is President Trump’s latest effort to build an alternative supply chain for the materials, which are key for the production of electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and other low-carbon technologies. China is the dominant supplier of critical minerals worldwide.

The recent panel was the most robust public discussion of Vault since Ex-Im revealed the program in February. For nearly three months, metals investors, traders and consumers have sought details as the government worked behind the scenes to flesh out the project, according to Bloomberg. 

Attendees packed a conference room at a hotel in Washington, DC, to get details on Vault’s sourcing hierarchy and payment structure. After brief introductory remarks, the panel unexpectedly opened up the floor to an almost hour-long question-and-answer session.

The program’s so-called waterfall would give preference to domestic suppliers even when their material comes at a premium to allied alternatives, with participating manufacturers expected to accept that trade-off as part of joining the program, panelists said. The initial stockpile fill, however, would be driven chiefly by availability, reflecting the reality that some of the roughly 60 minerals under consideration are produced only in limited geographies and, in some cases, remain heavily influenced by China.

Vault is being structured as a demand-driven vehicle rather than a government-directed stockpile, the panelists revealed. Manufacturers would determine which minerals are stored, with the program then working with traders to secure supply. It’s designed to give US firms more leverage in opaque and fragmented markets where individual buyers often struggle to source smaller volumes efficiently or at transparent prices.

On storage, Greeley said the project will begin by relying on warehouse networks already controlled by trading partners and procurement providers. Over time, Vault is expected to develop its own storage network, either by building facilities or leasing them. A mature system could combine its own sites with third-party warehouses.

Panelists said the use of specialist traders would also be tailored to individual metals. Rather than sending orders into an open bidding process, Vault is expected to match procurement to firms with expertise in specific markets, allowing traders with relationships in cobalt, rare earths or other niche material sectors to handle those flows. The goal, panelists said, is to preserve pricing discipline, improve execution and avoid creating a scramble for hard-to-find materials.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 22:10

DC Judge 'Apologizes' To Alleged Trump Assassin

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A federal magistrate judge in Washington, D.C., has come under fire after expressing deep concern – described by multiple outlets as an apology – over the custody conditions of Cole Tomas Allen, the 31-year-old accused of attempting to assassinate President Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner on April 25.

The judge’s remarks, captured in court and widely circulated on X, have ignited accusations of a two-tier justice system that coddles violent attackers while everyday Americans watch their rights erode.

According to reports from the emergency hearing, U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui voiced serious worries about Allen’s placement in restrictive custody following the shooting incident.

SHOCKING: D.C. U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui *APOLOGIZED*’to alleged White House Correspondents Dinner shooter, Cole Allen, for the “treatment” he has experienced so far in custody.

“The judge is very concerned about his constitutional rights, saying the defendant has… pic.twitter.com/D9uAUGwefc

— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) May 4, 2026

Fox News reported that “The judge is very concerned about his constitutional rights, saying the defendant has requested meetings with his legal team, and that has not been allowed. He’s been put in a restrictive 24-hour lockup with no windows in a padded room without an opportunity to get out for recreation.”

“He has been put on su*cide watch by the Department of Corrections, and the judge was asking why,” the reporter further noted.

Fox News host Larry Kudlow ripped into the development live on air, echoing the growing frustration.

“The judge apologised to this guy, who would’ve sprayed the whole audience?! And killed God knows how many people? Then would’ve taken a shot at the president? We’re apologizing to this guy?! I don’t GET that!”

Allen, a California man with no prior criminal record, faces charges including attempted assassination of the president after authorities say he rushed a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton armed with a shotgun, handguns, and knives. Video evidence released by prosecutors shows the chaotic moments as he allegedly opened fire, wounding a Secret Service agent before being subdued. He remains in federal custody.

The judge’s intervention came during arguments over Allen’s suicide watch and housing conditions, with his defense team filing motions to ease restrictions they called punitive. Faruqui reportedly ordered jail officials to explain or adjust the setup, emphasizing due process and access to counsel.

As we previously highlighted, Allen’s social media posts paint a picture of an individual steeped in the same anti-Trump rhetoric that has dominated Democratic and media messaging for years – language that framed the president and his administration in extreme, dehumanizing terms.

The incident at the correspondents’ dinner exposed how years of inflammatory talk can push someone toward violence. Yet instead of focusing on root causes – the unchecked rhetoric from the left – some in the system appear more worried about the shooter’s “dignity” behind bars.

Conservatives have pointed out the glaring double standard. January 6 defendants endured months of harsh pretrial conditions without similar judicial hand-wringing from the same D.C. courts. Here, a man charged with targeting the president and potentially dozens of others receives immediate scrutiny over padded cells and recreation time.

The hearing underscored Faruqui’s view that Allen’s treatment stood out as unusually severe compared to others he has overseen. Defense filings highlighted barriers to legal preparation and basic communication, prompting the judge to demand answers from the Department of Corrections by early this week.

Critics argue this reflects a deeper rot in the federal judiciary, where activist judges prioritize suspects aligned with certain ideologies over public safety and accountability. Calls to remove or reassign such figures have intensified online, with many demanding reforms to prevent future coddling of would-be assassins.

President Trump and his administration have long warned about the weaponization of institutions against America First policies. This episode only reinforces that message: the deep state and its enablers in the courts will bend over backward for those who threaten the republic while punishing patriots who defend it.

As the case moves forward, with a grand jury expected to hear additional charges, Americans are watching closely. The radicalization that drove Allen to act didn’t emerge in a vacuum – it was fueled by the very Democratic messaging now being whitewashed in court.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 21:45

"Rare Sight": USAF C-17 Jets Land In Beijing Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

As the Strait of Hormuz takes center stage Monday morning, Iran is threatening to attack any ship that attempts to transit the critical waterway. This directly challenges President Trump's plan for the U.S. Navy to "guide" tankers and container ships through the chokepoint.

Looking beyond the ongoing Hormuz crisis, the China topic is next: Trump is still expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming weeks. This means any U.S.-Iran escalation could leave Hormuz disrupted for even longer and will undoubtedly be a major topic at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo that the Trump-Xi summit is still "happening, as far as I know."

This leaves us searching for real-world signals, not just headlines from officials, that the two-day summit is still scheduled to happen on May 14 despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

One signal comes from an aviation observer account on X, by the name "Safari," who says two U.S. Air Force C-17 transport jets landed at Beijing Capital International Airport in recent days, "making them a rare sight" at the airport.

为特朗普访华运送先遣物资任务的美国空军两架 C-17 在 5 月 1/2 日降落北京国际机场，属于是 PEK 难得一见的客人了。 pic.twitter.com/uYMDjCD4S5

— safari (@safaricheung) May 3, 2026

Safari continued,

On May 3, two more C17 transport planes carrying advance supplies for Trump's China visit landed at Beijing Capital International Airport, bringing the total to 4 aircraft. There are already so many plane spotters here to photograph the advance transport planes; I can't even imagine what kind of spectacle it'll be around Capital Airport when Air Force One actually arrives

为特朗普访华运送先遣物资任务的美国空军两架 C-17 在 5 月 1/2 日降落北京国际机场，属于是 PEK 难得一见的客人了。 pic.twitter.com/uYMDjCD4S5

— safari (@safaricheung) May 3, 2026

Polymarket odds:

//--> Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Yes 85% · No 15%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

As of this moment, based on Bessent's comments and reports of USAF C-17s landing in Beijing, all indications so far suggest that the Trump-Xi meeting is set to happen at the midpoint of this month.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 21:20

Iran War Threatens China's 4.5 Percent Growth Target: Analysts

Authored by Jarvis Lim via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China’s already-strained economy faces mounting pressure as the Iran war threatens to choke export growth and suppress domestic demand, putting its 4.5 percent growth target at risk, experts say.

A woman takes a photo of the Lujiazui financial district across the Huangpu River on the Bund promenade in Shanghai, China, on March 5, 2026. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images

As the U.S.–Israeli war against the Iranian regime stretches past the two-month mark, President Donald Trump said in an April 29 interview with Axios that he will continue to maintain a blockade of Iran until Tehran agrees to a deal addressing concerns over its nuclear program.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly spiked to over $120 a barrel after Trump’s remarks, hitting a four-year high before dropping back to $114. It now sits at around $108 as of Sunday afternoon.

Rising oil costs have also driven up plastic prices across Southern China, squeezing profit margins and triggering panic buying throughout the supply chain at Dongguan’s Zhangmutou—the nation’s top plastics trading hub.

China is the world’s largest producer, consumer, and exporter of final plastic products, according to a 2025 report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, an intergovernmental organization.

Export Squeeze 

Tsai Ming-fang, a professor of industrial economics at Tamkang University in Taiwan, said that while many argue China’s strategic oil inventories would shield it from the effects of a blockade, the turmoil in China’s plastics markets shows the conflict is already weighing on its manufacturing exports.

China is estimated to be holding the world’s largest crude stockpiles, at nearly 1.4 billion barrels as of December 2025 and growing in 2026, according to an analysis released in April by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Surging energy prices in financially unstable countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are squeezing out discretionary spending, dragging down China’s export shipments,” Tsai told The Epoch Times.

“If consumers don’t consider these Chinese goods necessities, China’s shipment volumes will naturally fall further.”

Containers at the Longtan port in Nanjing, eastern China's Jiangsu province on Jan. 14, 2026. AFP via Getty Images

Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—China’s largest trading partner—with bilateral trade reaching 6.82 trillion yuan ($999 billion) in the first 11 months of 2025.

Chinese exports to the bloc totaled 4.29 trillion yuan ($628 billion) over the same period, up 14.6 percent year on year, data from the Economic and Commercial Office of the Mission of the People’s Republic of China to ASEAN showed.

Echoing the concern, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis Research, said China’s export engine is now caught in a “double bind,” with higher shipping costs driven by Hormuz disruptions and softening end-markets across Southeast Asia.

“This is not yet a cliff edge, but the directional pressure [on China’s exports] is clearly downward, particularly in electronics, machinery, and mid-tier consumer goods,” Garcia-Herrero told The Epoch Times.

Liu Meng-chun, director of the Chung-Hua Institution of Economic Research’s mainland China division in Taipei, said war-driven inflation in advanced economies like the United States and Europe is eroding purchasing power, stifling demand for Chinese goods and compounding the country’s chronic overcapacity.

“The European Union overtook the United States as China’s second-largest export destination in 2025, but the conflict has stoked price pressures across the region, eating into the profit margins of Chinese firms,” Liu told The Epoch Times.

Exports from the world’s second-largest economy grew just 2.5 percent year on year in March, a sharp pullback from the 21.8 percent expansion recorded in January and February, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

Faltering Demand

On the consumer front, Chinese car sales—widely viewed as a barometer of domestic demand—are declining.

Passenger vehicle retail sales in China fell 15 percent year on year in March to 1.648 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

Cumulative sales in the first quarter of 2026 reached 4.226 million units, down 17.4 percent from a year prior.

“The prolonged stalemate in the Middle East crisis has driven international oil prices sharply higher ... suppressing the release of consumer potential,” the industry body said.

A receptionist sits near the Leapmotor T03 model displayed at a showroom in Hangzhou in eastern China's Zhejiang province on Tuesday, May 14, 2024. Caroline Chen/AP Photo

Garcia-Herrero noted that China’s domestic demand was already under strain before the Iran war, warning that the ongoing energy shock will only exacerbate the decline.

“Elevated oil prices are feeding directly into transport and manufacturing input costs, squeezing household purchasing power and eroding consumer confidence,” she said.

China’s consumer price index, a key gauge of inflation, rose 1 percent year-on-year in March and was down 0.3 percentage points from February, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The producer price index (PPI)—a measure of costs at the factory gate—climbed 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier, reversing a 0.9 percent decline in February and marking its first rise after 41 consecutive months of contraction.

But Tsai cautioned against interpreting China’s PPI increase as a sign of economic recovery.

“The PPI rebound stems from energy cost pass-throughs driven by the conflict, rather than any genuine pickup in domestic spending,” Tsai said.

“The latest data indicates China is likely still grappling with internal ‘involution.’”

“Involution” describes a cycle in which Chinese firms compete ever more fiercely for a shrinking pool of consumers, driving down prices and profits without generating real economic growth.

As the fighting in Iran persists, the erosion of both domestic spending and export growth will inevitably deal a severe blow to China’s job market, according to Liu.

“The export sector has traditionally offered massive employment opportunities, but sluggish foreign trade is now constraining wage growth,” Liu said.

“Under these circumstances, the unemployment rate could rise further, hidden unemployment will become more pronounced, and the labor market will continue to contract.”

According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on April 21, the unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24, excluding students, rose to 16.9 percent in March, up from 16.1 percent in February.

Dimming Outlook  

In March, China’s State Council announced an economic growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, its lowest since the early 1990s, not including the pandemic.

Construction workers leave a building site for a new office tower in the Central Business District in Beijing on April 3, 2025. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Tsai said Beijing’s decision to lower its growth target reflects its own lack of confidence in the economy, and the protracted conflict in the Middle East has only darkened the outlook further.

“Unless China’s major trading partners—including Africa, Southeast Asia, and the EU—dramatically scale up imports, hitting Beijing’s growth target looks increasingly unlikely,” Tsai said.

“Besides, new legislation from the EU is piling further pressure on China’s economy.”

The European Commission unveiled the Industrial Accelerator Act on March 4, imposing strict screening on foreign investments exceeding 100 million euros ($117 million) in sectors that account for more than 40 percent of global capacity, such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar energy, and critical raw materials.

The move—widely viewed by analysts as targeting China—drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which claimed the framework was “discriminatory,” and constituted “severe investment barriers.”

Echoing Tsai’s assessment, Garcia-Herrero said hitting 4.5 percent growth remains “achievable on paper,” but the margin for error has narrowed considerably.

“Beijing retains meaningful policy tools—fiscal stimulus, targeted monetary easing, and strategic energy reserves,” Garcia-Herrero said.

“But deploying them effectively against an externally driven inflation shock is a different challenge than managing domestic cycles.”

Garcia-Herrero predicted that if the Hormuz blockade extends beyond the second quarter, a revision toward 3.8 to 4.2 percent looks “increasingly likely.”

“The 4.5 percent target now depends heavily on a conflict resolution timeline that China cannot control,” she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 20:55