1. What you’ve got to know is she WROTE those songs!

So it’s October 1973. I’m driving with the top down on my 1963 Chevy Impala trying to get something on the radio.

This was before cassette decks. Sure, you could buy an aftermarket 8-track, but they sat under the dash and were notorious for getting stolen. Furthermore, the 8-track format itself was wonky. With the movement of the heads from track to track…tapes wore out quickly and thus were a bad investment. Which is all to say when you were in the hinterlands, long before the days of Bluetooth, never mind satellite radio, you’d drive down the highway with your right hand on the radio dial, trying to pull in a listenable station.

Now this was in the hinterlands of Vermont. Needless to say, this ’63 convertible didn’t have FM, not that there was a station broadcasting in the backwoods. But AM signals travel further and…

What you notoriously got was rural news, the farm report, and country music. In an era where no proud rocker followed what was going on in Nashville.

Sure, Ringo made a record in Tennessee. But most of us in the north had never even been south of the Mason-Dixon Line, unless it was the hop, skip and a jump to Florida. We wrote off the south, that’s where you went with your long hair and got attacked by rednecks.

Now don’t confuse today’s country music with yesteryear’s. Today’s country is the rock of the seventies. Back then, it was people with high hair singing twangy songs…

Sure, there was a TV show, “Hee Haw.” But this was long before the average fan of the Fab Four gave props to Roy Clark for his picking ability. As for Buck Owens…we couldn’t find Bakersfield on a map, never mind name a single song of his.

Sure, we knew Roger Miller from the AM radio of the sixties. “Trailers for sale or rent…” This was what we endured to get to the Beatles.

But I’m in a pensive mood, wondering how I’m going to endure another year of college, it’s a brisk day and I stumble on to a station and what comes out is “Jolene.” It was not only the first time I heard the song, it was the first time I’d ever heard Dolly Parton. She hadn’t crossed over, she wasn’t featured on Top 40 radio in the metropolis. But rather than continuing to mosey down the dial, looking for some rock, I listened.

“Jolene, Jolene, Jolene, Jolene”

This was rootsy. Not that different from those Bonnie Raitt albums I was enamored of. This was not drippy drama, songs to sleep to. I could relate. And I never forgot it.

2. Now we knew who Dolly Parton was. I mean how could you not? With that hair and those boobs?

But the real breakthrough into the mainstream was “9 to 5.” Back when Jane Fonda could open a movie and a flick like this could garner an audience. “9 to 5” was a staple. Everybody saw it. And what they saw in Dolly Parton was someone who didn’t deny her roots, but was in on the joke. That was the thing about Dolly Parton, she had a sense of humor, she could make fun of herself. Not to mention writing the title song, which went all the way to number one and earned her an Oscar nomination.

Dolly Parton was now part of the firmament.

From the holler, but never lumped into the same bucket as Loretta Lynn and George Jones, no matter how talented they might have been. Dolly Parton was now mainstream, when those other acts were not. They were still inhabitants of the country ghetto, Parton had transcended that.

And she maintained this status for the next half century. To this day! Most people have ups and downs, their careers wax and wane. People change their opinions on them. But not Dolly Parton. Somehow by being aw shucks and exhibiting all that talent, she was embraced.

And, once again, she was in on the joke. She’d go on late night TV and play the role. You’d think she was ditzy, almost a bimbo, and then she’d let out a zinger showing that she was as sharp as you and me and to underestimate her was a mistake.

3. But Parton’s crossover appeal, the cementing of her credibility amongst those who were not country fans, was the 1987 “Trio” album, which she made with Linda Ronstadt and Emmylou Harris.

I bought that album, played it too. It was a natural extension of the country rock that began with “Sweetheart of the Rodeo,” which always had a place in the firmament, it never died.

Now the funny thing is the true star, the person who could make it happen, was Linda Ronstadt, who was a superstar in the seventies and then broadened her purview to the stage with “Pirates of Penzance” and then cut three albums of standards with Nelson Riddle. If Ronstadt’s name was on it, it sold.

And in truth, Linda had much more broad-based musical success than Dolly, more hit albums, but now, nearly forty years later…

Linda’s star in the public firmament has faded, yet Dolly’s shines as bright as ever.

Because Dolly wrote.

That’s what makes it so you’re remembered. The songs.

And Dolly’s songs were personal. And her story from there to here was one of lifting herself up by her own bootstraps. Gloria Steinem may have gotten all the ink, but Dolly was just as much of a role model for women’s liberation, if not more.

Dolly wrote for herself. And the personal is universal, when you do it right.

And she was so damn likable. Without being syrupy sweet, without shaving off all of her rough edges. She played the game with a wink. And those who play and can beat the odds doing it their way…we cotton to them.

4. And then there was the whole kerfuffle with the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.

Unlike the desperate with a chip on their shoulder, looking for the accolade as a victory lap they can put on their résumé, Dolly thought she didn’t deserve induction, because she wasn’t really a rock artist.

But if you’re going to induct Whitney Houston…

And, of course, Dolly wrote Whitney’s signature song, “I Will Always Love You.” An outstanding performance, but it’s the song that will live on, not Whitney Houston. Look at history, rarely are interpreters remembered, but writing, when done right, is forever.

So Dolly Parton, of all people, is calling the Hall on its B.S. Ironically, she’s standing up for the leather jacketed crowd pissed that pop, never mind hip-hop, is now part of the Hall. She was more interested in the integrity of the institution than the award.

But when Dolly finally acceded, she took the stage, played the guitar and ROCKED! I was there. You couldn’t watch it without a smile on your face. If this was the Rock Hall, she was going to deliver, and she did!

5. Now if you want to know every facet of Dolly’s career, there are plenty of obituaries to fill that need. You can go on Spotify and listen to her catalog. I’m no expert.

I’m just like so many of you. Country music of the sixties and seventies was not my bag (Although I did love Charlie Rich’s “The Most Beautiful Girl”… Then again, do youngsters even know that classic? I don’t see any of them covering it. But young acts continue to cover “Jolene” and other Dolly Parton songs.), but Dolly Parton was an exception. We all knew her, she was embedded in our hearts and minds. As much as she appeared, she was never overexposed, we were always glad to see her. She was like someone from down the street, dropping by for a cup of coffee, gossiping with relish. She was more than a performer, she was a person!

I know you know what I’m talking about.

Which is why there’s a national, international outcry over her passing.

Old rockers? They’re dropping like flies. Then again, when they’re not on the road…out of sight, out of mind. But Dolly Parton never left the news. And she’s left a hole that cannot be filled, because she was sui generis, there was only one Dolly Parton.

And there will never be one again.

Just like the Beatles were a product of post-war Liverpool…

Dolly Parton was a product of a rural America that has expired with modernity. Sure, there’s still poverty, but there’s also flat screen TVs and smartphones and the internet…

Actually, all you can really do is marvel. At what Dolly achieved, and she never rested on her laurels, she continued to march forward.

Wow.

~~~

Visit the archive:   http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/

@Lefsetz  http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
–
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter

~~~

Originally published by Bob Lefsetz at the Leftsetz Letter

 

The post Dolly Parton appeared first on The Big Picture.

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• ‘A Deal Written in Pencil’: Tariffs Are Erasing America’s Credibility: David Hebert on the lesson Mark Carney says Canada drew from 18 months of dealing with Washington, after the US slapped a 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods. (The Daily Economy)) see also Wiped Out: US Faces Surging Toilet Paper Prices amid Trade War with Canada: Lauren Aratani on Carney’s vow to match US tariffs “dollar for dollar.” (The Guardian)

• The Government Report That Made Me Stop Trusting Our Statistical Agencies: Jared Bernstein has spent years waving people off this degree of mistrust. He writes that he no longer can. (Jared Bernstein)

• Bitcoin Treasury Companies Shed $80bn in Value as Business Model Unwinds: Nikou Asgari on an FT analysis of the 50 largest corporate bitcoin holders — combined market cap down from $150bn in July 2025 to $67bn today.(Financial Times) see also Bitcoin Is Great (For Systemic Theft of Aid Money): Robin Wigglesworth on a new NBER paper that uses on-chain data to trace exactly where the money went. Jamie Dimon’s acerbic list of bitcoin’s use cases holds up better than its defenders would like. (Financial Times)

• Logging In Was Never Supposed to Be This Complicated: Will Oremus on password managers, passkeys, and the tyranny of the two-factor-authentication code. (The Atlantic)

• The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Built to Break: Groundbreaker rewinds to summer 2006, when prices had risen for a decade, delinquencies were near record lows, spreads were tight, and the securitization machine hummed. Ask a trading desk then whether the mortgage market was months from seizing and most would have laughed. Trillions in compute commitments come due in 2027–2028. The hidden mechanics reveal how the AI boom breaks, and when. (Groundbreaker) see also Wiggleswroth: This Is How the A.I. Debt Binge Sinks the Economy: In other words, if 2025’s A.I. frenzy was merely bonkers, we are now entering the territory of bonkers squared — or perhaps even bonkers cubed. Robin Wigglesworth on the hyperscalers’ borrowing spree — if 2025’s AI frenzy was merely bonkers, we are now entering the territory of bonkers squared, or perhaps bonkers cubed. (New York Times)

• A State Gave Sheriffs 20% of Its Opioid Settlement Cash. We Followed the Money: Aneri Pattani on Louisiana sheriffs spending millions in settlement funds on law enforcement gear rather than treatmentt (Stat)

• They Dedicated Their Lives to Teaching. Then the Deepfakes Started: Caroline Haskins on teachers like Luis DeSantiago, whose likeness turned up in AI-generated photos circulating among students on social media. The deepfake epidemic in schools is affecting more than students. Four teachers tell WIRED about becoming targets of sexualized, AI-generated content—and how difficult it was to find accountability. (Wired)

• America Has 3 Billion Words of Legal Code Riddled With ‘Policy Sludge’: Outdated rules are gumming up governments across the country. Daniel E. Ho of Stanford: the Fed still sends Congress an annual report on the Presidential $1 Coin Program, years after the coins stopped being minted for circulation. Federal law demands it. (Washington Post)

• Josh Shapiro is battling RFK Jr. over measles, and the politics are getting messy: Rachel Roubein on the heated call between the Pennsylvania governor and the health secretary, minutes before Shapiro announced two measles-related deaths. A feud between the Pennsylvania governor and health secretary sparked by this week’s reports of measles-related deaths laid bare the increasingly polarized politics of public health. (Washington Post) see also RFK Jr Lied in Senate Confirmation Hearings, Newly Revealed Documents Indicate: Michelle R. Smith on letters obtained by the Guardian and AP contradicting the health secretary’s sworn testimony that his 2019 Samoa visit had “nothing to do with vaccines.”Letters obtained by Guardian and AP contradict testimony that 2019 visit to Samoa had ‘nothing to do with vaccines’ (The Guardian)

• Dolphins and other lovers: The Andoque of the Amazon know what we have forgotten: the forest’s most beautiful creatures are also its most dangerous (Aeon)

Video of the day: Your Reality Is a Simulation

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business with David Booth, Founder, Chairman, and former CEO of Dimensional Funds Advisors. DFA just crossed $1 trillion dollars, and has become the largest active equity ETF manager. Booth’s new book is “Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life.”

One of two measles-related deaths of unvaccinated people in Pennsylvania was an infant

Source: CNN

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump Establishes Space Academy, Awards Medals Of Honor To Artemis II Astronauts

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump signed an executive order launching the U.S. Space Academy on Friday during a ceremony at NASA's Johnson Space Center, where he awarded the Congressional Space Medal of Honor to four astronauts who crewed the Artemis II mission.

Administration officials are directed to submit a proposal within 120 days to establish the Space Academy, under NASA's leadership, to provide technical education and degree programs needed to train the next generation of leaders to help guide NASA, Space Force, and businesses in the private sector.

"It will attract, train, graduate the very best of our nation, that our nation really has to offer," Trump said. "But first, we have to honor the heroes who are inspiring the next generation of astronauts and pioneers."

The president applauded the dozens of individuals in NASA's astronaut corps on the stage behind him before recognizing the Artemis II crew.

"We gather here on these historic grounds to celebrate the immense courage and service of four intrepid space heroes whose sense of daring and adventure led them further from Earth than anyone who's ever traveled before," Trump said during the event.

NASA astronauts Commander Reid Wiseman, pilot Victor Glover, and mission specialist Christina Koch were joined by Canadian Space Agency mission specialist Jeremy Hansen for the flight, as the astronauts traveled 252,758 miles from Earth and covered nearly 700,000 miles on the trip, according to NASA.

"This is a very rare thing," Trump said of the medal. "It's for courageous people, brilliant people, bestowed on astronauts who have distinguished themselves with exceptional service to the nation and all of mankind."

The crew took off on its 10-day lunar flyby mission April 1 from Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, aboard the Orion spacecraft named Integrity.

Trump spoke to the astronauts over the phone while they were on their mission before hosting them at the White House for an Oval Office ceremony on April 29 shortly after they returned to Earth.

Congress established the space-themed Medal of Honor in 1969 to recognize astronauts for their "exceptionally meritorious efforts and contributions to the welfare of the nation and of mankind."

Six space pioneers, Neil Armstrong, Frank Borman, Pete Conrad, John Glenn, Gus Grissom, and Alan Shepard, were the first to receive the medal in 1978, awarded by President Jimmy Carter.

Awardees are selected based on recommendations from NASA's administrator, with the Artemis II crew joining a short list of 30 prior recipients.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/29/2026 - 12:50

Falklands Emerge As US Leverage Tool Against Britain To Ramp Defense Spending

A new report from The Telegraph says the Trump administration is using Britain's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands as leverage to pressure the country into meeting NATO's new defense-spending target. 

What sounds like an "Art of the Deal" tactic by Trump has been described by a senior US official as a plan to push the UK toward NATO's pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defense.

Here's more from the outlet:

A senior US official told The Telegraph that Britain was likely to receive "special attention" in Washington's review of its allies' commitment to Nato, which will examine whether member nations have credible paths toward the target.

Officials in Washington believe that while Britain has the potential to be a leading defence partner, the defence investment plan, announced by Sir Keir Starmer in June, was not enough of a "step in the right direction".

"I would expect the UK to receive special attention because it has so much potential," the official said of the review. "We will therefore continue efforts to incentivize and enable the UK to step up in a major way."

Asked about the prospect of the US changing its position on the Falklands, they added: "I can say that they [conversations] are candid and nothing is being ruled out as far as options for encouraging the sort of burden-sharing that we seek."

The UK has currently budgeted to spend 2.6% of GDP on defense in fiscal 2026-27, rising to 2.7% from 2027-28 onward, according to the government's June plan. Actual defense spending this year topped 2.33%. That leaves Britain well short of NATO's new 5% target by 2035. 

The outlet continued:

Donald Trump's administration is pushing NATO into what officials are describing as a new era of the alliance, dubbed NATO 3.0. This would require European countries and Canada to take primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe.

"We've seen the defense investment plan, and it is a step in the right direction. But a step in the right direction isn't enough. Given the scale of challenges facing us and our allies, we need allies like the United Kingdom to step up in major, fundamental ways. Fortunately, some already are. We strongly encourage the UK to do likewise," the official added.

The Falklands remain a unique pressure point for Britain, which fought a war over the islands, while Argentina continues to claim sovereignty over them. Trump's move to reconsider the US' position on the Falklands appears to be a big lever over London. Timing is also notable: Trump's alignment with Argentine President Javier Milei is tighter than ever. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/29/2026 - 12:15

DC Jury Nullification Even Protects International Gang Lords

Authored by Julie Kelly via Declassified with Julie Kelly,

"I've done this a long time and haven't seen one quite like this one, I have to say."

So said U.S. District Court Judge Royce Lamberth, who has sat on the D.C. federal court bench since Ronald Reagan appointed him in 1987, last April.

What exactly stumped the senior judge that day? Another pending mistrial in the government's prosecution of two of MS-13's most notorious gang leaders.

For the second time in five months, a D.C. jury refused to convict Moises Rivera-Luna and Tokiro Ramirez on two racketeering conspiracy counts originating from a 2011 federal indictment (read: brought by the Obama DOJ, not Trump's) for criminal gang activity in Washington, D.C. and surrounding areas. It appears from the official court docket that the pair became fugitives before the case could go to trial back then.

But in March 2025, the Trump administration extradited Rivera-Luna from Guatemala to finally face his day in court; Ramirez had been extradited from Honduras in 2022.

"Rivera-Luna is alleged to be an international leader of MS-13 who was sending orders and advice to an MS-13 clique operating in the Washington area via cellular telephone calls from his prison cell in El Salvador," a March 2025 DOJ press release stated. "The indictment alleges that he and another alleged MS-13 leader... also incarcerated in El Salvador directed a coalition of MS-13 cliques to be formed in the Washington area. They advised local clique members that the coalition's aim was to seek and kill MS-13 members who were found to be cooperating with law enforcement officials." The indictment also accused the defendants of "narcotics distribution, extortion, [and] robberies."

Both men pleaded not guilty; the first trial began on December 2, 2025, just a few weeks after the shooting of two D.C. National Guardsmen, which resulted in the death of one, amid strong public opposition of the Guard's presence in the nation's capital. The start of the trial also coincided with nationwide anti-ICE protests including in Washington. And a group called "Free DC" at the time was hosting online seminars as part of its Trump 2.0 resistance operation, advising D.C. residents how to serve on juries to "influence outcomes and help create a more equitable legal process."

Free MS-13 to Show Trump!

Jury deliberations in the Rivera/Ramirez case began December 15, 2025. In a note to Judge Lamberth the following day, the foreperson informed the judge that despite "robust debate," the jury could not reach a unanimous verdict. "One juror has expressed an inability to be impartial in their review of the facts and an unwillingness to continue deliberations in a productive manner," the foreperson disclosed.

Lamberth declared a mistrial on December 17, 2025. Vive la résistance!

Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, immediately sought to retry the pair. The second trial started on April; jury deliberations began on April 15. History, however, would repeat itself with a note from the jury foreperson just a few hours later, disclosing that the panel was "divided and unable to come to a consensus." They continued to debate but the situation worsened in the jury room:

Lamberth responded with bewilderment, admitting the situation raised profound legal questions. "It's an odd note because their disclosure of the split, assuming that's what it is, is disclosing jury misconduct that would entitle an inquiry into the misconduct of the juror and possible replacement and restart of jury deliberations," he told prosecutors and defense attorneys during an April 17 hearing. "A juror who says at the outset they will not have any problem with never agreeing on a verdict has a problem with me."

The judge released the jury for the weekend and asked both sides to research how to handle such an impasse. But the jury came back with another blow to the government on April 20:

Lamberth called the foreperson into the courtroom to ask what was going on. "For one of the counts, we were in agreement and then this morning, we weren't," the foreperson disclosed. "And then I know we have one juror who is very firm on their stance and doesn't really want to deliberate further on the others. But there are two different jurors, if that makes sense."

Lamberth declared another mistrial that day.

Pirro v Graves: Not Even Close...and Lamberth Knows Exactly Why

So despite breathless headlines declaring Pirro a loser in court once again, it appears the jury in both cases was prepared to convict but prevented from doing so by activist jurors who unabashedly declared their intention to sabotage a guilty verdict. (It is unclear why Lamberth, seeing this happen yet again in the case, did not make an Allen charge to the jury or open an investigation into the rogue jurors. But as part of the ongoing judicial coup against the president, Lamberth possibly wanted to hand the Trump administration another loss.)

Further, Lamberth knows exactly why he hasn't seen "one quite like this." Because it never happened prior to Trump winning the 2024 election and proceeding to use his DOJ, rather than being hijacked by saboteurs like the first time around, to pursue his policy agenda and round up bad guys, white collar and otherwise.

Compare the outcome of Pirro's cases before DC juries to the track record of Matthew Graves, her predecessor in the Biden administration. Not only did Graves secure a 100 percent conviction rate of January 6 defendants before DC juries, those guilty verdicts were returned in record time. Graves won easy convictions in the misdemeanor cases against Trump advisors Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro, resulting in prison time for both.

But the same office now struggles to win convictions in those same courtrooms-and the only thing that has changed is the name on the letterhead. Not only have DC juries acquitted or declared a hung jury in at least seven federal cases since her tenure began (not including this one), the DC grand jury has rejected Pirro's pursuit of several indictments including charges against the so-called "Seditious Six."

And no one knows this massive disparity more than Judge Lamberth, who presided over dozens of J6 cases and sent many to federal prison. His feigned shock as to why juries--both grand and petit--are letting criminals off the hook is nothing more than a hollow attempt to pretend the judicial system in Washington, DC resembles anything close to fair, apolitical proceedings.

Lamberth, and Pirro, will get another chance to convict the dangerous gang lords next month. Is the third time a charm? Inside the grotesquely partisan courthouse sitting in the heart of the nation's capital, the answer is probably, no.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/29/2026 - 11:40

Pezeshkian Says Iran To Increase Gasoline Prices, Coupled With Rare Admission About US Sanctions

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday issued a rare admission, describing that after six months of war initiated by the United States and Israel, the country's economy is feeling significant pain.

The statement came days after on Monday US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled Trump's "Economic D-Day" plan against Iran, noting that while military operations have ceased, a far-reaching and sustained economic warfare campaign is in full effect.

via Reuters

"Some say sanctions have no effect at all; to those people, I really don’t know what to say," Pezeshkian told state TV in an interview late on Friday. "We are in a war situation, and we must accept these wartime conditions."

He appeared to be pushing back against some Iranian hardline officials who have asserted that the sanctions basically have not impacted the government or population whatsoever.

As evidence of the early and ongoing impact, lines at gas stations have gotten longer and more frustrating for consumers of late. Pezeshkian openly acknowledged this, and indicated for the first time the country is raising gasoline prices:

The president said the price of petrol should be increased in Iran to account for the fall in trade. “We should raise the price of the third-tier quota... For example, from 5,000 tomans to 10,000 tomans,” he added.

That quota refers to one of several consumption rates that determine the price an Iranian consumer is charged. Iran, a major oil producer with some of the world’s cheapest fuel, has for years heavily subsidized petrol, making any changes to pricing politically sensitive.

This represents a 100 percent increase from the current 5,000 tomans ($0.025) per liter, and comes as a result of the ongoing US naval blockade, which has prevented regular imports from covering the shortfall of domestic production, amid an overall import fall of 25 to 35 percent. But clearly some shipments are still getting in.

However, in what was perhaps Pezeshkian's more long view, wishful, and also defiant assessment - days prior to the Friday comment, he had asserted that latest US sanctions "will not achieve anything."

"We will stand firm against economic pressures, as we have done so far and will continue to do," Pezeshkian told state media.

Meanwhile, President Trump had reaffirmed there are currently no talks happening with Tehran. "We're not looking to meet or anything," he said Thursday.

Curiously, other Iranian sources have been painting a picture which downplays potential petrol shortages, saying instead that gas station delays are but the result of a sudden surge in demand...

⚡️⭕️ Iran: National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company reports no gasoline shortage; recent 10% demand increase and storage damage in Tehran caused supply delays and queues. (IRIB News) pic.twitter.com/9C0scnCFO0

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) August 29, 2026

Last week, a top Iranian official in charge of domestic energy supply said the gasoline market had a daily deficit of 14-15 million liters due to record demand, damage incurred in the war and “changes in the national budget’s priorities.”

"We have to do something to bring consumption down to domestic production levels," Esmaeil Saqab Esfahani, head of the Energy Optimization and Strategic Management Organization, had stated, according to the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/29/2026 - 11:05



 

 

This week, I speak with David Booth, founder and chairman at Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) and author of the new book, Stay Calm.

We discuss his time at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he was the research assistant to American economist and Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama, before leaving to start DFA. We also discuss his embrace of the uncertainty of markets and the importance of staying the course. His philanthropic history and giving back to the places that shaped him.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Seth Bernstein, CEO of AllianceBernstein and Head of Asset Management of Equitable Holdings, the 69% owner AB. The firm manages $905.5B. Previously, he spent 32 years at JPMorgan Chase, where he eventually became the Global Head of Managed Solutions & Strategy at JPAM, responsible for all discretionary assets for Private Banking clients, and Global Head of Fixed Income & Currency. He eventually became CFO of JPM’s Investment Management & Private Banking division.

 

 

 

 

Newest Authored Book

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

Paris 1919 by Margaret McMillan

1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History–And How It Shatteredâ a Nation

The post MiB: David Booth, Dimensional Fund Advisors Founder & Chairman appeared first on The Big Picture.

They Know It Would Trigger Mass Unrest...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The sister of a young British mother butchered by a small-boat arrival has torn into the Labour government for going to court to keep the public from seeing who is committing what crime in this country.

Alex Whyte told GB News she feels "sick, disgusted and completely let down." Anger, she said, "doesn't even cover what I feel, and it never will."

Labour, she added, is "too afraid to admit" what open borders have done to Britain.

Rhiannon Whyte was a 27-year-old mother. Her son was five when she was murdered by a Sudanese migrant being housed at the hotel wage worked in.

Deng Chol Majek stabbed her 23 times with a crosshead screwdriver. Nineteen blows were to the head. Eleven penetrated her skull. One went so deep it pierced her brain stem. She never regained consciousness and died in hospital three days later.

Majek had arrived in Britain on a small boat, and claimed asylum. He had already been refused in Germany and Italy. He lied about his age, claiming to be 19. The court put him between 25 and 28.

After the killing he threw Rhiannon's phone in the River Tame, bought a beer, changed his clothes and was caught on CCTV dancing and laughing. He showed no remorse, and in January of this year he was given life with a minimum of 29 years.

Alex Whyte now helps raise that little boy. She has described the scream he made when he was told his mother was gone as something that will haunt her for the rest of her life. Rhiannon, she said, "never saw danger." She "wanted people to be happy and safe. Hence why she worked at the hotel."

"But we're not safe. She wasn't safe," she urges.

She is among relatives who have now written to Justice Secretary Alex Norris. Reporting has put the group at 11 families, with 18 relatives of victims signing. They want publication of conviction data by nationality for England and Wales from 2018 to 2024 - the dataset the Centre for Migration Control requested under Freedom of Information law.

The Information Commissioner ordered the Ministry of Justice to release it. The MoJ's cost and "identification" arguments were rejected. Then Justice Secretary David Lammy sanctioned an appeal to the First-tier Tribunal. Taxpayers are now funding a legal fight to keep the figures sealed.

The families' letter put it plainly: "Imagine if someone you loved had been attacked, abused, or killed by a person who had entered Britain from abroad." They wrote that victims and the public "deserve transparency about the people who enter our country and the crimes they subsequently commit." Withholding the data, they said, damages trust and blocks "meaningful action." They urged ministers to "stop spending public money on this attempted cover-up."

Among them: eight members of Rhiannon's family; relatives of a 14-year-old girl sexually assaulted by an Ethiopian asylum seeker housed at the Bell Hotel in Epping; Ann Newman, partner of dog walker Wayne Broadhurst, stabbed to death by Afghan national Dawood Safi in Uxbridge; Fiona Goddard, a Bradford grooming gang victim; and Sammy Woodhouse, raped in the Rotherham scandal.

Alex Whyte cannot see why British sex offenders can be checked on a register while foreign offenders are wrapped in official silence.

"If you have a sex offender who's from this country, you can go on a register and find out who they are. Why is that not for everyone who's a part of this country? They want to be treated the same as everyone else. They want to be entitled to everything that we are entitled to here. We should know who they are and what they're doing."

'I feel sick, disgusted and completely let down. Anger doesn't even cover what I feel, and it never will.'

Sister of Rhiannon Whyte, Alex Whyte, criticises the Labour Government for blocking the release of data on offences committed by foreign nationals. pic.twitter.com/sQ64KiDzwb

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 26, 2026

Asked what her sister would make of the block, she did not hesitate. "She would be outraged. Completely outraged."

"She no longer has a voice, but I do. And I will never stop until there is real justice."

'We as a country deserve better, my sister and her little boy deserve better, we will never stop until we've got real justice.'

Sister of Rhiannon Whyte, Alex Whyte calls out Labour for being 'too afraid to admit' the impact of foreign criminals on Britain. pic.twitter.com/wrFya6PIn8

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 26, 2026

"Open your eyes. You are so aware of what is happening, but you are too afraid to admit it. We as a country deserve better. My sister deserved better. Her little boy deserves better, and we will never stop until we've got real justice."

Rhiannon's mother Siobhan Whyte called the refusal "diabolical." Labour, she said, is "constantly denying what's going on." She pointed to Home Office leaflets telling asylum seekers that rape is illegal and what the age of consent is - documents that exist only because officials already know the risk.

"They know they're a danger, and that's the sad reality of it. Instead of stopping, detaining, deporting, they'd rather spend thousands on publishing stupid documents that mean nothing," she urged.

She aded, "I think our Government should be protecting women and children and the men of this country, and there is definitely something there, definitely something very weird going on that they seem too scared to protect us."

The MoJ's stock line is that public protection is "our priority," that there is a "record £550 million" victim-support package, and that it will not comment on live proceedings. It denies a cover-up. The appeal itself is the comment.

Partial releases and earlier FOI work have already sketched the picture ministers would rather not print in full.

Foreign nationals accounted for 14.1 per cent of sexual offence convictions in 2025, according to Police National Computer figures the MoJ has allowed out. That lump sum does not break out rape, child sexual abuse or grooming.

Earlier analysis comparing prison numbers with census figures found foreigners overall 27 per cent more likely to be imprisoned than British citizens. Albanians sat at 232.33 imprisonments per 10,000 against 14 for Britons. Kosovars, Vietnamese, Algerians, Jamaicans, Eritreans, Iraqis and Somalis all ran well above the British baseline.

On the railways the imbalance is starker. British Transport Police data obtained by the Centre for Migration Control showed foreign nationals made up 79 per cent of theft arrests on trains in 2025, 40 per cent of drug-offence arrests, 37 per cent of sexual-offence arrests and 36 per cent of violent-crime arrests.

Of 9,771 arrests across England, Wales and Scotland, nearly 3,700 were foreign nationals. CMC research director Robert Bates said the government had "made our trains unsafe" and that any sane government would end the inflow and start deportations.

Across England and Wales, foreign nationals were arrested 172,889 times in the year ending March 2025 - one every 183 seconds. That included 51,212 violence arrests and 11,264 sexual-offence arrests.

Separate CMC work using police, Home Office and ONS figures found foreigners 3.5 times more likely to be arrested for sex crimes than British citizens: nearly 165 arrests per 100,000 against 48 per 100,000 for Britons.

They formed 26.1 per cent of sexual-offence arrests while making up around 9 per cent of the population. In the City of London the foreign share of sex-crime arrests hit 66.9 per cent. In Derbyshire it was 44.8 per cent. Nationalities with the highest rates included Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians and Somalis.

CMC's Robert Bates has called the legal fight "astonishing" and an "attack on transparency and accountability." If some nationalities offend at far higher rates, visa policy can be tightened and, where needed, whole source countries shut off.

Reform UK's Robert Jenrick charged that successive Tory and Labour justice secretaries have refused to publish "this basic information." A Reform government, he said, "would immediately blow the lid on what's really happening and begin deporting these dangerous criminals."

Shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy asked the obvious question: "Labour has consistently refused to publish sex crime data by nationality. Why are they trying to appeal against releasing the data? Do Labour just want to cover up the truth about foreign national offenders?"

Reform's Zia Yusuf stated "It is a cover-up, and let's call a spade a spade. Tory and Labour Governments now for years have sacrificed their own people, sacrificed their own women and children's safety."

Yusuf further charged that they allowed British women and girls "to be raped and murdered by men who should never have been allowed into the country at all because they worship at the altar of diversity." If Reform wins and Nigel Farage is prime minister, Yusuf said, releasing "all of this data so the British people learn the truth" would be among the first acts of a Reform home secretary.

The same instinct to manage the public rather than inform it runs through the hotel system that employed Rhiannon and housed her killer.

Police Scotland has refused Freedom of Information requests for aggregated call-outs, crimes and arrests at five asylum hotels, including sites in Erskine, Glasgow, Paisley, East Kilbride and Falkirk. The force cited "heightened community tensions" and a risk of physical harm to officers, residents and the public. Even anonymised totals were withheld on the grounds that changing numbers might allow "inferences" about residents, or that incidents might be blamed on protests rather than people living there.

Scottish Conservative shadow justice secretary Liam Kerr called it another case of public bodies following an SNP "culture of secrecy."

Former Cladhan Hotel occupant Sadeq Nikzad, from Afghanistan, was jailed in June 2025 for raping a 15-year-old local girl. Another resident, Muhammad Sheikhi, 22, later faced sexual-assault charges. Locals who protested have been arrested, and the data stays locked.

In Epping, an Ethiopian small-boat arrival housed at the Bell Hotel sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman who tried to intervene. He received 12 months. Some locals who protested the hotel later drew longer sentences than the attacker.

That is the two-tier reality families in the Norris letter are living with: the state will spend years and legal fees protecting a spreadsheet, then come down hard on the people who object when the spreadsheet's contents walk out of a hotel and onto a platform.

Siobhan Whyte has said police encouraged the family to soften public remarks after Rhiannon's life support was withdrawn, with officers talking about avoiding "another Southport." She has also said the Prime Minister has "blood on his hands." Majek would have been among the first cohort eligible for Rwanda removals. Labour cancelled the scheme. He stayed. She is dead.

While ministers litigate against sunlight, ordinary Brits have been unwittingly underwriting the activist layer that treats borders as the problem.

A GB News investigation found the National Lottery has channelled more than £140 million toward refugee and migrant projects. A five-year Community Fund audit identified £114.7 million between July 2021 and June 2026 alone, jumping to £43.3 million in 2024/25.

Large recipients included Refugee Action (£3.21 million), the British Refugee Council (£2.97 million) and the Scottish Refugee Council (£1.75 million). Refugee Action has talked of a future "rooted in the fundamental right to move, underpinned by a commitment to anti-racism."

Commentator Rafe Heydel-Mankoo called it "the capture of these institutions by far-left ideology that should have no place in the charitable world."

So the public funds the hotels, funds the legal aid, funds the leaflets explaining that rape is illegal, funds the charities campaigning to keep the boats coming - and then funds the lawyers trying to stop anyone seeing the conviction table.

Alex Whyte and those supporting her are asking for the same honesty the state already applies to British sex offenders, and for a government that will say out loud what it already knows. Labour would rather fight the Information Commissioner than fight the people who should never have been here. That is not public protection. It is self-protection.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/29/2026 - 10:30

Iran's Ghalibaf Declares Persian Gulf Oil Flows For 'All Or None'

Via The Cradle

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared on 28 August that either all Persian Gulf countries will be allowed to export oil freely or none will, adding that the security of West Asia depends on the withdrawal of US forces.

"The equation of this war is clear: either all or none!" Ghalibaf said, adding, "In a region where we don’t sell oil, no one else will sell oil either." The speaker emphasized further, "If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe."

via Associated Pre

“Security of the strait depends on the absence of US forces. We have said many times that the situation in the strait will not return to what it was before the war.”

The comments came in response to claims by US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Admiral Brad Cooper that US forces had seized full control of the Strait of Hormuz and halted Iranian oil exports. 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement issued the same day, urged all states to refuse to enforce a new US sanctions package the same day, warning that compliance makes a government complicit in violating international law and the sovereign equality of states.

Washington unveiled the measures under the name “Operation Economic Outcast” after failing to reach its war aims against Iran with military force.

The ministry condemned the package as economic terrorism, stating that it revealed “the criminal intent of those who designed and implemented it to inflict suffering on the Iranian people and deprive Iranian citizens of their fundamental human rights; therefore, it is tantamount to an international crime and a crime against humanity.” 

It said the US was weaponizing the dollar to pressure other governments into backing its policies on Iran, in breach of the UN Charter and the principle of non-intervention.

Tehran also said the sanctions defy the International Court of Justice (ICJ) order of October 3, 2018 requiring Washington to lift barriers to the flow of food, medicine, and medical equipment.

The ministry tied the economic war to the broader US-Israeli offensive against Iran over the past year and a half, and said the failure of the UN and its members to confront those violations has produced “a highly dangerous pattern of lawlessness.”

Senator Kennedy floats the possibility of US pulling out of the Iran war while leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed

It would certainly be an option at some point, now that we've accomplished most of our goals, for us to come home. The president's critics will say, but the Strait… pic.twitter.com/qVdb40yHvp

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 28, 2026

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi previously said that Trump's “Economic D-Day” campaign would deliver Washington nothing but further defeat, calling it a distraction from a US debt crisis that hit a record $40 trillion this month.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the turn to economic war followed Washington's failure to achieve its military objectives, and that the US was now begging its allies for help while claiming Iran was on the brink of collapse.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/29/2026 - 09:20

How Much Gas Prices Have Risen Since The Iran War

Gas prices have climbed sharply across the U.S. following the outbreak of the Iran War, but the size of the increase varies significantly by state.

Using AAA price data from February 18, 2026, as a pre-war baseline and prices as of August 20, 2026, this visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Sofie Gilbert, maps the percentage increase across all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Which States Saw the Biggest Gas Price Increases

Iowa has seen the largest percentage increase in the country, with gas prices jumping 69.1% from $2.45 to $4.14 per gallon. Oklahoma follows closely at 68.8%, while Colorado, Minnesota, and Wyoming have each seen increases of more than 60%.

Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Kansas round out the top 10, each up more than 57%.

The table below shows the full breakdown of price changes by state, sorted from largest to smallest percentage change.

StatePre-War Price
(Feb 18 2026)Current Price
(Aug 20 2026)$ Change% Change Iowa$2.45$4.14$1.6969.1% Oklahoma$2.29$3.87$1.5868.8% Colorado$2.76$4.48$1.7262.2% Minnesota$2.57$4.16$1.5961.8% Wyoming$2.70$4.37$1.6761.8% Montana$2.75$4.39$1.6459.7% New Mexico$2.61$4.14$1.5358.5% North Dakota$2.54$4.01$1.4757.7% South Dakota$2.59$4.08$1.4957.7% Kansas$2.47$3.88$1.4157.1% Utah$2.79$4.38$1.5957.0% Nebraska$2.59$4.04$1.4556.1% Arkansas$2.46$3.80$1.3454.6% Wisconsin$2.55$3.94$1.3954.4% Missouri$2.52$3.89$1.3754.3% Ohio$2.70$4.12$1.4252.6% Idaho$2.97$4.49$1.5251.3% Mississippi$2.49$3.66$1.1747.2% Illinois$2.99$4.40$1.4147.1% Louisiana$2.51$3.69$1.1847.0% Michigan$2.92$4.21$1.2944.0% Kentucky$2.59$3.70$1.1143.0% Texas$2.55$3.64$1.0942.8% Alabama$2.63$3.74$1.1142.2% Tennessee$2.58$3.66$1.0841.9% Connecticut$2.90$4.10$1.2041.5% Arizona$3.16$4.47$1.3141.4% Georgia$2.71$3.82$1.1141.1% New Hampshire$2.85$4.01$1.1640.6% Massachusetts$2.90$4.04$1.1439.4% Rhode Island$2.87$4.00$1.1339.2% Maine$2.92$4.06$1.1439.1% New York$3.00$4.15$1.1538.3% Alaska$3.50$4.83$1.3338.1% South Carolina$2.67$3.68$1.0138.0% Vermont$3.00$4.14$1.1437.9% Virginia$2.81$3.86$1.0537.5% District of Columbia$3.09$4.21$1.1236.1% North Carolina$2.77$3.77$1.0036.1% West Virginia$2.85$3.87$1.0235.9% Florida$2.91$3.95$1.0435.6% New Jersey$2.94$3.99$1.0535.6% Maryland$2.92$3.94$1.0235.0% Delaware$2.87$3.87$1.0034.8% Pennsylvania$3.11$4.14$1.0333.0% Nevada$3.64$4.78$1.1431.2% Indiana$2.75$3.56$0.8129.6% Oregon$3.71$4.76$1.0528.3% Washington$4.17$5.24$1.0725.7% Hawaii$4.40$5.43$1.0323.4% California$4.59$5.59$1.0021.8%

Many of the states with the largest percentage increases started from relatively low pre-war prices, which magnified the percentage change as crude prices rose.

Oklahoma, for example, had the lowest baseline price in the country at $2.29 per gallon and has since climbed nearly 69%.

How Much More Americans Are Paying at the Pump

Across the country, the average increase works out to roughly $1.25 per gallon, or about 44% from the pre-war baseline.

That translates to an extra $15 for a 12-gallon fill-up. At roughly 450 gallons of fuel consumed per vehicle each year, based on Federal Highway Administration data, a sustained $1.25-per-gallon increase would add about $560 to annual fuel costs.

The increases followed a major global oil supply disruption after the Iran War closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices sharply higher as roughly 10 million barrels per day were taken off the market.

The impact extends well beyond the pump. As a single barrel of oil feeds thousands of everyday products, from plastics to pharmaceuticals, higher crude prices can ripple across the broader economy.

Why the Least Affected States Still Pay the Most

The states with the smallest percentage increases were largely those already paying the most. High fuel taxes and climate-related fuel policies, including carbon pricing programs in California and Washington, help keep baseline prices elevated.

California also uses a state-mandated fuel blend that cannot easily be supplemented with gasoline from outside the state.

Hawaii faces a different constraint: as an island chain with no pipeline access, its fuel must be shipped in, adding a persistent logistical premium to each gallon.

California saw the smallest increase at 21.8%, followed by Hawaii at 23.4% and Washington at 25.7%. Yet all three remain the most expensive states in the country, at $5.59, $5.43, and $5.24 per gallon, respectively.

If you enjoyed this graphic, check out Charted: The World’s Biggest Oil Producers on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/29/2026 - 08:45

US-Backed SDF Leader Joins Sharaa Regime As Presidential Advisor After Kurdish Force Dissolved

Via The Cradle

Self-proclaimed Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has appointed Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi as a presidential advisor, following the dissolution of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in an integration deal with Damascus earlier this week.

"President Ahmad al-Sharaa issued Decree No. 164 of 2026 on Thursday, appointing Mustafa Khalil Abdi, known as Mazloum Abdi, as an advisor to the Presidency of the Republic," state media SANA reported on 27 August.

Abdi headed the SDF, an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) that was created with US support in 2015 as part of the war to topple the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad.

The SDF took control of large swathes of northeast Syria from ISIS, including the country's main oil fields, as part of Washington's efforts to keep Syria divided and prevent reconstruction by Assad's government.

Abdi and the SDF created an autonomous region that also included Sunni Arab majority areas taken from ISIS. However, when Sharaa – a former Al-Qaeda leader – took power in Damascus in December 2024 with the help of the US, Turkey, and Israel, the SDF's usefulness to Washington was diminished.

Sharaa's extremist-led Syrian army defeated the SDF in January 2026 after weeks of clashes, bringing Kurdish autonomy to an end. Abdi announced the dissolution of the SDF on Tuesday as part of a deal to integrate the Kurds' forces and civilian administration into the state.

“Our struggle will continue to cement our people's rights in the constitution,” Abdi stated after announcing the integration. “The integration deal was a major victory for Sharaa, but an end to long-held Kurdish hopes for autonomy,” Saudi newspaper ASharq al-Awsat wrote on Friday.

Abdi has pointed to a decree signed by Sharaa claiming to enshrine the Kurds' national rights and recognizing Kurdish as a national language as a victory for the SDF.

Abdi is a veteran of the PKK, considered a terrorist group by Sharaa's strongest backer, Turkey. The PKK waged a deadly insurgency against Ankara for decades before formally renouncing its armed struggle last year.

In recent years, Turkiye has moved to improve relations with Kurdish parties, in particular in Iraq, as part of its “growing with the Kurds” policy.

Ilham Ahmed tells The Amargi that she and Mazloum Abdi have taken on new positions within the Syrian state.

SDF commander-in-chief Mazloum Abdi has been appointed as Presidential advisor for Kurdish affairs in Syria, while former Autonomous Administration External Relations… pic.twitter.com/dRIiv7WBUx

— The Amargi (@the_amargi) August 25, 2026

Because Kurds have significant populations in Syria and Iraq, Turkish leaders wish to use them as a vehicle to extend their influence in neighboring countries in a way enjoyed by the Turks during the period of the Ottoman Empire.

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, is a close partner with Ankara. The US, Turkey, and the KDP all covertly backed ISIS during the organization's takeover of large swathes of Syria and Iraq in 2014, including during the genocide of Yezidis in the Sinjar region of Iraq.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/29/2026 - 08:10

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• Who Pays the Cost When Americans Opt Out of Science?: Adam Frank thought science denial would hit a bottom once people experienced the direct consequences of being wrong. It turns out he was wrong. Astrophysicist Adam Frank used to think the consequences of rejecting science would play out on the individual level. He’s since changed his mind. (Big Think)

• Imagine an Organism: Imagine a human infant. And imagine, further, part of its development. The organism gestates for some time, eventually developing a visual system, a hearing system, a phonatory system, and some means of locomotion, among other things. It enters the world mostly fully formed, though not fully grown, and reacts to it in ever-changing ways during its physical development. It starts sorting out the world right away, and within 10 months has created a rich knowledge base, building categories of two main kinds – verbal and visuo-spatial – which in time will give rise to more abstract concepts. In particular, the organism puts together linguistic meanings (for gestures, words, and phrases) on the verbal side, and spatial relations and object categories on the visuo-spatial side; in time, these two kinds of categories will combine into more general representations. David Lobina reviews Blaise Agüera y Arcas’s What Is Intelligence? — noting that radiologists are still around, despite Geoffrey Hinton predicting their demise in 2016. (Inference) see also What To Expect When You’re Expecting (A World of Multi-Agent Systems): How do we model the future of work? It takes an AI village. Researchers gave a set of AI agents a shared goal, memory files, individual virtual computers, and a group chat, email, and Google Docs — then watched. The result is the AI Village. How do we model the future of work? It takes an AI village. (Asterisk)

• App Life in China Notes on a Long-Delayed Return to China: It may be hard to make money in China in 2026, but it is very pleasant to spend it. A major element of involution is the brutal competition in every market that puts downward pressure on prices as consumers, spoiled for choice, demand higher and higher quality. Hotels, trains, flights, food, clothes, cars, phones, electronics, massages, mountaineering gear, Labubus: all are cheap compared to the United States. (ChinaFile)

• Einstein’s Miracle Year: Many attempts have been made to explain relativity to non-scientists, among them several by Einstein himself, beginning with Relativity: The Special and General Theory (1916, first published in English in 1920). It is still in print today, though despite having had so many readers it has not succeeded in persuading the general public to abandon fundamental intuitions about space, time, mass, motion and gravity in favour of the deeply counterintuitive view of the physical world put forward by Einstein. Our minds and imaginations remain stubbornly Newtonian. Most of us find it hard to shake the instinctual belief that an apple falls to the ground because it is pulled there by the force of gravity, the same force that keeps the planets in their orbits. (London Review of Books)

• The Church of Raising Cane’s: The hottest restaurant chain in America is inspiring people to fly 16 hours to try it. I went to find out why—and I saw too much: Steffi Cao joins the Church of Raising Cane’s — a chain inspiring people to fly 16 hours for chicken fingers. “I went to find out why—and I saw too much.” The hottest restaurant chain in America is inspiring people to fly 16 hours to try it. I went to find out why—and I saw too much. (Slate)

• LIV Long and Prosper: Dispatches from the End of an Era: Loathe it or love it, LIV Golf was a gift from the content gods. Lives were changed, fortunes amassed, legacies elevated and reputations shattered. It all came to an unceremonious end on Sunday night in Indianapolis. Flash mobs and the Rhino Jive, NFTs and positive EBITDA — four and a half years of LIV Golf’s fever dream come to a close in Indianapolis. (Skratch)

• The Kill Switch for Harmful Genes: Saloni Dattani on why biomedical research has spent decades as a boot stamping on a biologist’s face — the boot labeled “medicinal chemistry” — and the new class of drugs that changes the equation. (Works in Progress) see also Every Disease Is a Policy Failure: Mathias Kirk Bonde on why doubling global life expectancy in a century fails to register. (Works in Progress)

• The most influential works of American culture: Elvis Presley, Bob Dylan and the iPhone were the most cited omissions on The Post’s list. Carla Spartos on what readers said the Post’s list of 25 left out — one work per decade since the founding was never going to satisfy anyone, and monuments were the first complaint. (Washington Post)

• The Qataris Gave Trump an Airplane. He Crippled Their Country in Return. The tiny Gulf state is learning that the U.S. president doesn’t always keep his end of the deal. Shane Harris on the repurcussions. (The Atlantic)

• An Oral History of Tim Curry’s Escape to the One Place Uncorrupted by Capitalism: Is it the sweet transvestite from Transexual, Transylvania in The Rocky Horror Picture Show, is it Wadsworth the butler who butles in Clue, is it Stephen King’s sewer clown in It? Or is this—seriously, this short, ridiculous cutscene from Red Alert 3—the defining performance of Tim Curry’s long career? (Vice)

Video of the day: Martin Scorsese Breaks Down His Most Iconic Films | GQ

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with David Booth, Founder, Chairman, and former CEO of Dimensional Funds Advisors. DFA just crossed $1 trillion dollars, and has become the largest active equity ETF manager. Booth’s new book is “Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life.”

 

The Market, Not The Fed, Now Sets Long Rates

Source: Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

50 Survival Lessons From The Great Depression: The Horrifying Things Americans Did When Money, Jobs, & Hope Disappeared

Authored by John Walter via John Walter,

We publish this piece in the August of 2026, as the machinery of global commerce groans and sputters, as hollow men in expensive suits speak of "corrections" and "adjustments" while families count pennies in dimly lit kitchens. The photograph you see above - those gaunt men hunched over bowls of thin soup, their eyes fixed on some middle distance between hunger and dignity - was snapped nearly a century ago, yet it could have been taken yesterday in any tent city stretching like a scar across the American landscape. We do not traffic in false nostalgia here, nor in the cheap comfort of historical distance. The Great Depression was not a sepia-toned folktale; it was a meat-grinder that chewed through 25 percent of the working population, that evicted grandmothers into snowbanks, that turned proud men into beggars and children into scavengers. The bones of that era still jut through the soil of our present moment - visible to anyone brave enough to look. What follows is not a curiosity shop of antiquated customs, but a field manual written in blood and hunger, a record of how ordinary human beings refused to break when the world snapped in half. Read it. Memorize it. The wolves are already at the door.

Introduction

October 29, 1929, began as a Tuesday and ended as an autopsy. When the stock market shed its skin that Black Tuesday, it revealed something putrid beneath the gilt and glamour of the Roaring Twenties - the entire economic edifice had been a painted facade, a stage set propped up by speculation and debt. Within months, the iron sinews of American industry seized up. Factories that had belched smoke and churned out automobiles now stood silent as tombstones. Construction cranes froze in place, their skeletal arms reaching toward empty skies. The breadlines formed not from laziness but from the sudden, violent evaporation of work itself - fourteen million pairs of boots kicked dust on Main Street, fourteen million stomachs growled in concert.

The trauma cut marrow-deep. Men who had worn white collars found themselves fighting rats for garbage. Women who had managed households like generals now found themselves bartering wedding rings for sacks of beans. Children learned to sleep through the rumble of empty bellies, to recognize the particular gray color of hunger. This was not merely poverty - poverty implies a falling from somewhere. This was collapse, the sudden plunging of an entire civilization into a pit without handholds. The American Dream, that peculiar national religion promising infinite ascension, revealed itself as a confidence trick played on the desperate.

Yet here is the strange miracle: they did not all perish. They did not all devolve into the savage calculus of dog-eat-dog, though some surely did. Instead, something older and tougher emerged from the wreckage - a kind of stubborn, ornery ingenuity that had lain dormant during the fat years. People remembered how to do things. They recalled skills their grandparents had brought from the old country: how to stretch a dollar until it screamed, how to mend what was torn, how to find nourishment in landscapes others called barren. They discovered that the human animal is infinitely adaptable, capable of surviving on pride and lard and sheer cussedness when the supermarkets close and the ATMs go dark.

We have grown soft in the intervening decades. We have forgotten the taste of true scarcity, the texture of want. Our landfills overflow with the discarded, while our grandparents hoarded string and bacon fat like treasure. We order sustenance through glowing screens, disconnected from the soil and the seasons. But the old knowledge persists, passed down through whispered conversations in kitchens where the radio once played FDR's fireside chats. The fifty fragments of wisdom that follow are not theoretical. They were paid for with calloused hands and sleepless nights. They represent the collective survival manual of a generation that faced the abyss and chose, defiantly, to keep walking.

50 Tips From the Great Depression

1. Move as a clan. When work dried up in Akron or Detroit, families packed their possessions into trucks and rolled toward the horizon like Bedouins. Staying together meant pooling resources, sharing bread, ensuring that when one member stumbled, others could prop them up. The lone wolf starved; the pack endured.

2. Follow the harvest. Migrant farm work was the artery that kept many alive. Cotton in Texas, apples in Washington, wheat in Kansas - each crop had its season, its hunger for hands. A family could stitch together nine or ten months of labor by chasing ripeness across state lines, living in tents that leaked when it rained.

3. Ask not what the job is; ask only if it exists. Pride was a luxury item, quickly pawned. Men who had managed offices took up shovels. Women who had worn silk now scrubbed floors. The work itself mattered less than the doing of it, the exchange of sweat for coins.

4. Put every able body to the grind. Children sold newspapers, gathered bottles, ran errands for pennies. Grandparents watched infants so mothers could scrub laundry. No one sat idle; the family was an economic unit, a small cooperative where survival was the only dividend.

5. Scavenge value from the discarded. Driftwood became fuel. Rusted metal became scrap. Bones became glue. The beachcomber and the junk man were aristocrats in this economy, turning refuse into currency through sheer force of will.

6. Embrace the government's outstretched hand - cautiously. The New Deal programs, for all their bureaucratic weight, taught skills and poured concrete. Men learned masonry while building dams; they learned forestry while planting trees. Take the help, but keep your eyes open.

7. Work until you cannot stand. There was no retirement, no gold watch and pension. Seventy-year-olds swept floors. Eighty-year-olds watched grandchildren. The body worked until it broke, and then it found lighter work.

8. String together fragments. When full-time work vanished, people cobbled three part-time positions into a patchwork income. Dawn at the bakery, noon at the cannery, night at the loading dock. Sleep became a negotiable commodity.

9. Knock on every door. The unemployed did not wait for advertisements; they walked the streets, entering every shop and factory, offering labor by the hour. Persistence was the only resume that mattered.

10. Create your own occupation. Women arose before dawn to cook stews and pies, then sold them outside factory gates during lunch breaks. Men sharpened tools on porches, offering services to neighbors. Necessity was the mother of small enterprise.

11. Cultivate the jack-of-all-trades. The specialist starved. The man who could fix a roof, shoe a horse, and balance books found three times the opportunity. Breadth trumped depth when the market for expertise collapsed.

12. Accept payment in kind. Farmers took on hands they couldn't pay in dollars, offering instead bushels of corn or sides of pork. A chicken was as good as a five-dollar bill in many towns.

13. Crowd under one roof. When the bank took the house, families scattered like seeds - not to the wind, but to the homes of relatives. Three generations in one farmhouse was cramped, but the body heat alone saved on coal.

14. Convert your vehicle to shelter. Those with cars or trucks slept in them, parking behind churches or in empty lots. Public gyms offered showers for pennies; the automobile became a rolling bedroom.

15. Build from scrap. Tents, shacks, lean-tos constructed from packing crates and corrugated tin - these were not dwellings but declarations of continued existence. A roof, however patched, meant dignity.

16. Insulate with desperation. Mud, newspaper, tar paper, old coats - anything that could block the wind was stuffed into walls. The goal was not comfort but survival, keeping the pipes from freezing and the children from turning blue.

17. Wear your coat indoors. Thermostats were turned to near-freezing. Families sat in overcoats and mittens, breath visible in the parlor, saving fuel for cooking rather than warmth.

18. Harness evaporation. Wet sheets hung over doorways created crude air conditioning. As the water dried, it drew heat from the room, offering slight relief when the summer sun turned shacks into ovens.

19. Refinance before the hammer falls. Those who could, renegotiated mortgages to lower payments, buying time if not salvation. It was a dance with the devil, but it kept the sheriff away for another month.

20. Cash the safety net. Life insurance policies, that morbid savings account, became emergency funds. Better to feed the living than to enrich the beneficiaries.

21. Trade without currency. Barter economies sprouted like weeds. A morning's labor might yield a gallon of milk; a repaired fence could earn a bushel of apples. Money was scarce; ingenuity was not.

22. Beg without shame. Outside restaurants, on corners, at church doors - asking for help was not criminal but human. The rich who still ate in warm dining rooms sometimes emerged with leftovers, and the hungry learned to wait with hollow eyes.

23. Distrust the marble halls. When banks began closing their doors, taking lifetimes of savings with them, the wise kept cash in coffee cans and under floorboards. Institutions failed; paper promises burned.

24. Keep the books loose. Storekeepers extended credit to regulars, scratching debts on ledgers they might never collect. It was a gamble on community, on the hope that better days would come.

25. Dig in the dirt. The vegetable plot was the difference between malnutrition and survival. Even city dwellers tore up lawns to plant potatoes. Seeds cost pennies; harvests were priceless.

26. Hunt and hook. Rabbits, squirrels, fish from the creek - these were not sport but sustenance. A shotgun was as vital as a plow, and the woods were a larder for those who knew how to read them.

27. Gather what grows wild. Nuts, berries, dandelion greens, cattail roots - nature provided for those who knew her language. Children became expert foragers, their eyes trained to spot edibles in the ditch.

28. Put up the harvest. Canning was not a hobby but a survival skill. Rows of jars in the cellar - tomatoes, beans, peaches - represented edible insurance against winter's lean months.

29. Eat the inedible. Tumbleweed, once cattle fodder, found its way onto plates. Young shoots of plants previously ignored were boiled and seasoned with desperation.

30. Waste nothing of the beast. Hearts, livers, kidneys, feet, heads - every part served a purpose. Offal was ground, stewed, fried. Even the hooves yielded glue and gelatin.

31. Stretch with smoke. A single strip of bacon could flavor a week's worth of beans. The rind, the fat, the drippings - all were saved in tins, used to fry bread, to add richness to thin soups.

32. Cultivate the commons. Vacant lots became collective gardens. Parks were divided into plots. The soil belonged to whoever worked it, and tomatoes grew where roses once bloomed.

33. Swap the surplus. Neighbors traded cucumbers for eggs, corn for milk. Variety entered the diet through exchange, through the web of relationships spun across fences.

34. Cook from zero. There were no boxes to open, no packets to tear. Flour, water, salt - these were the building blocks. Recipes required time and labor, not just microwave minutes.

35. Shop the dying day. Saturday evenings, before Sunday closures, vendors slashed prices on perishables. The savvy bought bruised fruit and day-old bread, eating better for less.

36. Keep livestock close. A cow meant milk and butter; chickens meant eggs and Sunday dinner. Even a single goat could sustain a family, turning grass into protein.

37. Fill with starch. Meat was for the wealthy. The poor bulked meals with bread, potatoes, noodles - cheap calories that filled the stomach if not the soul. Lard added the illusion of richness.

38. Boil the bones. Soup was the universal meal, adaptable to whatever scraps remained. Water was free; bones were cheap; the pot could simmer endlessly, feeding many from little.

39. Mend the soles. Shoes were repaired until they could not be repaired again. Leather from belts patched holes; rubber from tires became new soles. A cobbler's needle was worth its weight in gold.

40. Sew from sacks. Feed sacks, flour bags - these became dresses, curtains, shirts. Women learned to cut patterns from whatever cloth came to hand, turning agricultural packaging into fashion.

41. Cancel vanity. Fashion was a dead letter. Clothes were worn until threadbare, then turned into patches for other clothes. The goal was coverage, not style; warmth, not trend.

42. Pass it down. Outgrown garments traveled to younger siblings, then to cousins, then to neighbors. A single coat might warm three children over a decade, its history accumulating in every patch.

43. Rip for rags. When fabric could no longer hold stitches, it became cleaning cloths, quilt stuffing, rug yarn. The final death of a garment was a slow unraveling into utility.

44. Abandon entitlement. No one believed the world owed them a living. The able worked; the unable hoped to work again. The safety net was the family, the church, the neighbor - not the distant government.

45. Help the striving. Those who tried and failed found open hands. Those who refused to try found closed doors. Charity was reserved for the willing, not the wanton.

46. Tighten the community weave. Neighbors shared tools, labor, news. They pooled money for the desperate, organized relief for the sick. The atomized individual perished; the networked group survived.

47. Lend with strings. Town welfare loans were not gifts; they were debts of honor, recorded meticulously, expected to be repaid. Dignity was preserved through obligation, not handouts.

48. Value the collective. Independence was a luxury; interdependence was the reality. The man who could not ask for help starved; the man who could not offer help lost his humanity.

49. Expect loss. They learned that possessions were temporary, that security was illusion, that everything could vanish overnight. This knowledge was terrible but liberating.

50. Keep walking. Above all, they maintained forward motion. Despair was indulged in private, briefly, then packed away. The sun rose; the work continued; the human animal adapted and endured.

Conclusion

The photograph fades, but the hunger remains. We stand now at a similar precipice, staring into a future that promises uncertainty, that whispers of contractions and corrections and collapses yet to come. The machines we have built are complex, interconnected, fragile - subject to the same tremors that brought down the house of cards in 1929. We have forgotten, in our age of abundance, how thin the margin is between comfort and catastrophe, between the full pantry and the empty bowl.

Yet the old knowledge persists, encoded in the DNA of those who survived. It tells us that we are tougher than we believe, more adaptable than we imagine, capable of finding nourishment in landscapes we once called barren. The fifty fragments above are not archaeology; they are prophecy. They remind us that when the trucks stop running and the screens go dark, we still possess hands that can plant, minds that can calculate, hearts that can share.

The men in that black-and-white image are all dead now, dust and memory. But their stubbornness echoes forward. They teach us that dignity is not purchased with dollars but carved out of will, that community is not a buzzword but a lifeline, that survival is not a given but a choice made daily, hourly, breath by breath. The wolves are at the door, yes. They always have been. But we remember now how to bar the gate, how to sharpen the knife, how to look our brothers and sisters in the eye and say: We have less, but we have enough. We will make it through another winter. We will see the spring.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 23:25

US Looks To Revive 'Prize Courts' For Iranian Oil Seizures

The US government is exploring an unusual legal route for dealing with Iranian oil and ships captured as part of its blockade: bringing back a wartime maritime system that has barely been used for generations, according to Bloomberg.

The Justice Department, working with the Pentagon, is preparing to use prize law, which historically allowed courts to decide whether vessels and cargo captured during armed conflict could legally become property of the United States. The mechanism was once commonplace in naval warfare but largely disappeared from American practice after the 19th century and has been dormant since World War II.

The appeal for the administration is largely practical. At present, the government generally relies on civil forfeiture to take ownership of vessels accused of sanctions violations or other offenses. Those cases can become complicated and slow, particularly when shipping companies, creditors, terrorism victims or other parties assert competing rights to the ship or its cargo. A prize proceeding could potentially narrow those disputes and allow captured oil to be sold more quickly, with the proceeds going to the US Treasury.

Bloomberg writes that Houston is being considered as a central venue for these cases. The Southern District of Texas has jurisdiction over a major port and sits alongside the country’s largest concentration of petrochemical infrastructure, giving it the capacity to receive and store substantial quantities of crude. US Attorney Aaron Reitz, whose office is working with DOJ officials in Washington, said the department is “now reviving” prize courts, describing the concept as an “ancient body of maritime law.”

The effort comes as Washington looks for additional ways to put economic pressure on Iran. US forces have already intercepted Iranian-owned or Iran-linked vessels since the blockade was imposed in April. Using prize law could turn those captures into a more direct financial tool: ships and oil deemed lawful prizes could be liquidated, potentially generating revenue while depriving Iran of valuable exports.

Supporters also see a strategic purpose beyond the money. Reviving the system would reinforce the message that the US considers the blockade a serious wartime measure rather than simply another sanctions regime. It could also make it more difficult for neutral commercial vessels to continue transporting goods that Washington believes support Iran.

But there is considerable uncertainty over how a centuries-old framework would operate under modern international law. “This really is a historical area of law that is not tested in modern times,” maritime attorney Allison Luzwick said. Courts could be asked to determine whether the current conflict provides sufficient legal grounds for invoking prize authority at all, particularly given questions surrounding congressional authorization for the hostilities.

The practical challenges are significant as well. Federal judges, prosecutors and the Navy have virtually no contemporary experience administering prize cases, meaning procedures would effectively have to be rebuilt for modern shipping and warfare. Shipowners and other parties with financial claims are also expected to contest seizures.

There are broader geopolitical risks. Critics argue that normalizing prize law could create a precedent that Washington may later regret. A rival power such as China, for example, could point to US practice when attempting to seize American or neutral merchant vessels during a future conflict.

The proposal therefore offers Washington a potentially faster way to convert captured Iranian oil into government revenue and tighten economic pressure on Tehran, but it would do so by reopening an area of wartime law that has gone largely untouched for more than a century.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 23:00

China Ousts 4 Senior Military Commanders In Widening Purges

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times,

China has removed two top generals from its highest military command body and expelled two other senior commanders from a Communist Party-controlled legislature, as turbulence continues within the upper echelon of the country's armed forces.

Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, speaks at the opening of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium in Qingdao, China, on April 22, 2024. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

Once China's No. 1 general, Zhang Youxia, has been removed from the national Central Military Commission (CMC), according to a brief statement issued by the National People's Congress Standing Committee via state media Xinhua on Aug. 28.

The statement didn't offer any reason for the swift dismissal of Zhang, who had served as vice chair of the national CMC since 2018.

Zhang, also a member of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP's) ruling Politburo, was abruptly placed under investigation in January, along with another senior commander, Liu Zhenli. Both men were accused of serious violations of discipline and laws, a phrase that generally refers to corruption or disloyalty.

Liu was also stripped of his title as a member of the national CMC, according to Xinhua.

Technically, China has two separate CMCs-one affiliated with the state and the other within the CCP-sharing the same personnel and leadership. In practice, however, the Party's CMC holds the real power. The two commanders haven't been formally, or at least publicly, expelled from the Party's military body.

The latest announcement effectively reduced the CMC from six members to one, plus Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the top.

China's armed forces have been embroiled in an unprecedented purge that has almost vacated the leadership of every branch of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), raising questions about the military's combat readiness.

A February report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that more than 100 senior military commanders have likely been purged since 2022.

Unlike the military chiefs previously targeted, Zhang and Liu are among the few active-duty generals in the country who have battlefield experience. Zhang served in China's brief war with Vietnam in 1979, while Liu took part in border skirmishes with Vietnam in the 1980s.

Because these officers were members of the legislature, they previously had legal protection against arrest or prosecution. By removing them from those positions, that protection was stripped away, opening them up to criminal prosecution.

According to China insiders who previously spoke to The Epoch Times, Beijing has already decided to charge Zhang, likely with corruption-related allegations, to shift attention away from the power struggle within the Party.

In addition to Zhang and Liu, the NPC on Aug. 28 revoked the membership of Zhong Shaojun, a long-time aide to Xi, according to Xinhua.

Zhong became Xi's secretary in the early 2000s when Xi was transferred to a position in Zhejiang, China's top economic powerhouse on the eastern coast. Since then, Zhong followed Xi into roles in Shanghai and, later, the central leadership in Beijing.

After Xi took power as the Party leader in late 2012, Zhong was appointed to the CMC chairman's office, working directly under Xi, and elevated to the military rank of senior colonel.

Also expelled from the NPC on the same day was Ju Qiansheng, commander of the PLA Strategic Support Force.

Xinhua did not provide reasons for their departure.

The purge in the defense establishment shows no signs of abating. In an Aug. 24 notice, China's military said it's seeking information from the public on potential procurement violations in the Rocket Forces, a secretive PLA unit that commands the country's conventional and nuclear missiles.

This notice echoed a 2023 announcement by the PLA's Equipment Development Department that encouraged citizens to report potential corruption and misconduct related to hardware procurement going back to October 2017. Since then, China has expelled two defense ministers and all four generals who had commanded the Rocket Forces.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 22:35

Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Disappear As Bolsonaro Heir Turns Presidential Election Into Coin Toss

Brazilian socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are virtually tied as August comes to a close, according to UBS analysts citing new polling data, turning October's presidential election into a potential coin toss. A Bolsonaro victory would accelerate the eradication of left-wing rule across South America as the continent undergoes a once-in-a-generation rightward political realignment. That shift may also offer an early signal of Europe's upcoming 18-month election cycle, in which right-wing parties and candidates are gaining momentum across several major countries.

Alexandre de Ázara, a managing director and chief economist for Brazil at UBS, told clients on Friday that "the gap is closing" in Brazil's presidential race as Bolsonaro pulls within striking distance of President Lula.

Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)

UBS's latest polling aggregator shows Lula taking 44% of valid first-round votes, down one percentage point from Monday's update. Bolsonaro rose one point to 38%, while other candidates remained at 18%.

First round aggregator and polls (% of valid votes for Lula)

First round aggregator and polls (% of valid votes for Flávio)

The runoff numbers are even tighter, according to Ázara. Lula now leads Bolsonaro by just 50.6% to 49.4%, cutting the incumbent's advantage to 1.2 percentage points from 2.8 points at the start of the week.

Ázara uses a mixture of polling data from Datafolha, Veritá, Nexus, Gerp, Indexa and PoderData. He said new polling data from Vox, Nexus, Real Time Big Data, and Atlas are expected over the next few days.

Prediction markets appear considerably more confident in Lula than the polls.

Polymarket gives the president a 62% chance of winning...

...compared with 35% for Bolsonaro. Kalshi places the contest at 61% versus 39%.

Brazilian voters face a stark ideological choice in October between the incumbent socialist Lula and right-wing Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro has portrayed the economy as trapped by high spending, high interest rates, and rising debt.

Barclays estimates that the next administration would need a fiscal adjustment of at least 2.5% of gross domestic product, or about 350 billion reais, to stabilize the debt burden by 2031.

TS Lombard expects Lula to pursue limited spending reforms following the election but projects that debt would still peak at 94.7% of GDP in 2034. Under Bolsonaro, the analysts model a faster adjustment and a proposed debt-linked spending rule, but debt would still reach 90% in 2032.

Comments from Bank of America's Latam Equity Quant:

Brasilia in election mode: investors on standby waiting to see how the elections play out. Uncertainty on the electoral outcome remains high as polls have been showing more convergence in President Lula's and Flavio Bolsonaro's voting intentions.

ING Analysts:

BRL: Presidential polling in play

It has been a positive environment for the carry trade, but what has also been helping the Brazilian real this week has been an opinion poll showing that President Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro has dropped to just one percentage point. Bolsonaro is running on a ticket of fiscal consolidation and hoping to emulate the victory of Colombia's Abelardo de la Espriella this year, which has been greeted warmly by local asset markets.

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election takes place on 4 October. Expect USD/BRL to be bounced around by polling results before then. But with 12% implied yields through the forwards and the chance of a regime change, we suspect the real can continue to comfortably outperform the steep forward curve.

The election may determine whether Brazil moves further left or right politically. Across the continent, the latest country to shift right was Colombia. Many others have followed:

Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak expects a similar right-wing sweep across Europe in the coming elections.

More broadly, voters in the West are rejecting left-wing regimes, as failed progressive experiments, open borders, and nation-killing socialist policies have been nothing but devastating.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 22:10

The War Hawks' Predictions Have Aged Like Milk

Authored by Nolan Denaro via Antiwar.com,

When Donald Trump launched the Iran War on February 28, the usual suspects were in full support. From the moment the conflict ignited, many couldn't help but immediately express admiration for the president, saying that only a brave, noble, and strong leader would've had the courage to do what Trump did here. For weeks, we heard that this war was essential, that we would be better off as a result, and that to be unsupportive was to be siding with the IRGC.

Alex Brandon/AP

As weeks went by, however, it became apparent that the rosy picture that had been painted in the war's infancy was not based in reality. One month turned into two, and then three, and here we are now about six months later, with none of the war's stated objectives having been achieved. Because of the historic nature of this defeat, it is important to reflect on how we got here.

Who were the voices cheering the administration on as it led us down this dark path?

Why did they have such hatred for those of us who opposed the war?

Most importantly, who can't we trust going forward?

Ben Shapiro

Among the war's top early cheerleaders was Ben Shapiro. From the first moments of the conflict, Shapiro was praising Donald Trump's decision to launch the war.

"President Trump is the most courageous commander-in-chief in modern American history," Shapiro excitedly said. "What he just did is the bravest move by a president of the United States of my lifetime, bar none, without a doubt."

Shapiro also immediately made it his mission to smear the war's critics. Doing his best play on David Frum's 2003 article "Unpatriotic Conservatives," Shapiro began labeling some of the most prominent anti-war voices - including libertarian Dave Smith - "America-haters." In a March 4 episode of "The Ben Shapiro Show," Shapiro makes some very bold - and uninformed - predictions for how the war would play out.

Addressing concerns early on in the war about U.S. munition stockpiles, Shapiro urged his audience to ignore the naysayers, and rest assured that " we do have significant stockpiles." To build on his narrative, he claimed that the Iranian's were "running out of missile launchers." "This is a major problem for them," he emphasized.

"The status is pretty good," Shapiro told his podcast listeners, "things are moving pretty well."

Shapiro's blind faith in the government narrative was not enough to will the U.S. to victory, however. His uncritical rereading of Trump's Truth Social post - in which he claims that we have a "virtually unlimited supply" of munitions - may have convinced his audience to get on board with the war, but this trust in the administration eventually crashed against the rocks of reality.

The U.S. does not have "unlimited" munitions. The Iranian's ability to launch missiles has not been effectively degraded. This war has not gone as the administration intended, and the biggest proof of this is the conflict's length. The war was originally sold as a weeks-long offensive, but it turned out to be a drastically larger undertaking than the White House anticipated, and one that has engulfed the Trump presidency.

Marc Thiessen

Neoconservative Marc Thiessen, a former George W. Bush speechwriter, was among the war's most enthusiastic boosters early on. Once a leading figure within the "Never-Trump" movement, Thiessen has become a vocal supporter of the President. This change of heart is mainly due to Trump abandoning his dovish 2016 rhetoric, and embracing a more hawkish foreign policy.

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on March 3, Thiessen outlined what he viewed as the mastery of Trump's Iran strategy.

"At this moment, the U.S. is striking Iran from the air - eliminating the regime's leadership, its retaliatory capabilities, its nuclear program and its infrastructure of repression." Thiessen explained. "Expect this campaign to last for weeks, not days."

Thiessen also expressed faith that the Iranian population could be organized - as one collective unit - and mobilized in an orderly fashion to achieve America's objectives, saying "there is no need for a U.S. invasion force. The Iranian people are the boots on the ground, and the fate of the country is in their hands."

This uprising of course did not happen, and based on the size of the crowd that attended the funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there are signs of a "rally around the flag" effect having taken place in at least some capacity.

In an effort to play to Trump's ego, Thiessen struck a familiar cord, saying "If he succeeds in defeating Islamic radicalism in Iran, Trump will take his place alongside them as one the most consequential presidents in U.S. history."

Surely we should expect a follow-up on these wildly-incorrect predictions, right? This war not only wasn't wrapped up in "weeks" like Thiessen had assured us, but his premature claims of success have also proven false.

To be fair to Thiessen, let's assess the success of this war by his own standards, which he kindly published in his Washington Post op-ed on March 11. His three "levels of success in Iran" are as follows:

"Level One: The United States eliminates the regime's ability to project force beyond its borders."

"Level Two: The Iranian regime collapses and is replaced by a new government answerable to Washington."

"Level Three: The Iranian people rise up and take back their country."

As for the first objective, Iran's ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz has showcased an expansion - not a retraction - of Iranian influence in the region. Ships have been struck multiple times in the past month, even as we are told the military fighting is on pause.

The Iranian regime has also not collapsed as Thiessen has hoped, and they are no more answerable to Washington than they were before. In fact, due to the unwillingness of Trump to hold up his end of a potential deal, Iran has become more reluctant to negotiate.

As I previously explained, Thiessen's dreams of a people-powered uprising were not based in reality. If you think about the plan in simple terms, you can quickly see its problems. The idea was that the U.S. was going to bomb Iran, assassinate the country's political and religious leader, kill innocent civilians, threaten to eliminate all of Persian civilization, and then the everyday people would suddenly become motivated to rally to the cause of the foreign nation that is attacking them. This is an illogical proposition, but one that was genuinely believed by neoconservative ideologues like Marc Thiessen.

Jesse Watters

Fox News' primetime hosts were leading the war's propaganda effort, and none were as shameless as Jesse Watters. Watters monologues on his show "Jesse Watters Primetime," as well as his remarks on "The Five" have been shockingly detached from reality, and his statements immediately following Trump's initial strikes have not aged well.

"We're crushing them," Watters told the panel of "The Five" on March 3. "These guys were nuking up, Trump's not going to wait around."

"With Venezuela and Iran, we've basically tipped over two petro-dictatorships," Watters said, just a few days into what has turned into a prolonged conflict. "We now control almost the entire world oil market."

It is genuinely unbelievable how history manages to repeat itself like this. In what is now an infamous moment of presidential embarrassment, George W. Bush spoke on the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003, in front of a banner that read "Mission Accomplished." He gave the speech only a few weeks after the launch of the Iraq War. Despite Bush's proclamation of a completed mission, the war would go on to last for years, resulting in thousands of American troop deaths, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilian deaths, and hundreds of billions of dollars spent. This speech has since served as a reminder of how hubris can blind political leaders from military realities. Much like in 2003, it seems that many were blinded by hubris in Iran. The thought of an American strategic defeat against Iran was unfathomable to the war-hawks. This is because they are in a bubble, where they only hear feedback which reaffirms their pre-existing ideology. If they were to have heeded the warnings of the wise voices who opposed this war (John Mearshiemer, Scott Horton, Jeffrey Sachs, Andrew Napolitano, Ron Paul, Tucker Carlson, etc.), they would've at least understood the incredible risks inherent in this project.

But, of course, their strategy relies on maintaining an unshakable narrative: the war will be a success, without a doubt. The skeptics of foreign interventionism - despite all of the ridiculous smears - have once again been proven right. Perhaps we should listen to them sometime. We would be much better off.

Nolan Denaro is an independent political analyst, writer, and host of "The Quest For Clarity" podcast, which can be found on YouTube and Spotify. His work has been published by Antiwar.com, Responsible Statecraft, the Libertarian Institute, The Daily Caller, and the Ludwig von Mises Institute. He writes on U.S. foreign policy, economics, and current events, with a particular focus on war and imperialism. He writes opinion pieces on his Substack, and you can follow him on X @nolandenaro. Nolan can be reached for correspondence at nolansdenaro@icloud.com.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 21:45

Study Finds Gender Ideology Fuels Support For Left-Wing Political Violence

The Department of Health and Human Services commissioned a study that found a measurable link between accepting transgender ideology and supporting left-wing political violence.

Surveillance footage provided in court filings shows Nicholas Roske at a gun shop on May 23, 2022 before attempted murder of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. (Photo: Justice Department)

Researchers at Rutgers University, the Manhattan Institute and the Network Contagion Research Institute produced the report, called "Where the Clinic Meets the Movement: Does Gender Ideology Arm Left-Wing Authoritarian Psychology?" which was obtained by the New York Post ahead of its release.

The team surveyed 1,208 American adults on the importance of affirming gender identity, on perceived threats to transgender people from groups the survey lists as "white supremacists, men, the Supreme Court, etc.," and on support for anti-democratic behaviors.

To gauge a respondent's degree of support for gender ideology, researchers built a metric they call the Clinical Gender Affirmation Scale (CGAS), drawn from what they describe as "consensus positions" of the American Psychological Association, the American Psychiatric Association and the World Professional Association for Transgender Health, chosen because they "represent the official scientific and clinical establishment on care for individuals who identify as transgender."

Researchers then asked respondents about six potential targets of political violence. The report describes them as "killing Charlie Kirk, killing Donald Trump, killing Brian Thompson, arson of ICE buildings, damaging wealthy people's property, and violence against police."

Across preregistered analyses, CGAS and related gender ideological-belief measures were strongly associated with left-wing authoritarianism (LWA), with Spearman correlations ranging from ρ = 0.44 to ρ = 0.59. CGAS also significantly predicted LWA, accounting for 31.5% of its variance. In ordinal regressions predicting CGAS, political identity was the strongest predictor, but LWA remained an independent predictor after controlling for political identity and age. LWA and CGAS were also positively associated with justification of political violence across six targets: killing Charlie Kirk, killing Donald Trump, killing Brian Thompson, arson of ICE buildings, damaging wealthy people's property, and violence against police. Both independently predicted all six violence outcomes after controlling for left-wing political identity.

These findings suggest that gender ideology is associated with LWA and willingness to justify political violence. Experimental research is needed to determine causality.

The report's conclusion reaches past correlation. Gender ideology, the authors write, "may function as an ideological accelerant, telling left-wing authoritarian psychology who the enemy is, why the situation is urgent, and - in those already disposed toward force - that violence is legitimate."

Researchers also examined what they term catastrophizing beliefs. The report assessed "the perceived likelihood that a genocide of individuals that identify as transgender is currently under way," alongside what it calls "associate extremist responses," including support for censoring and punishing people who reject transgender ideology or ignore Supreme Court rulings on gender issues. The authors treat the strength of that connection as unsettled. "We have good reasons to expect that LWA and CGAS will predict support for these sorts of anti-democratic beliefs, but those are empirical questions which will be answered in the analysis that are ongoing," they write.

Study researcher Colin Wright called the results among the most striking he has encountered. "One of our study's most interesting and perhaps shocking findings was that accepting gender ideology appeared to augment authoritarian attitudes on support for political violence," Wright told the Post. He offered one possible mechanism. "We believe this may result from gender ideology defining specific oppressed classes and their oppressors, and the promotion of extreme narratives of harm for those who refuse to affirm transgender identities both socially and medically," Wright said. He stopped short of calling that explanation settled. "That is only speculative at this point, but we are addressing this directly in a follow-up report," Wright said.

The rise of violence linked to transgender perpetrators or allies is hard to dismiss. Last year, Tyler Robinson allegedly shot Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk in the neck while he addressed a crowd at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Robinson reportedly had a relationship with a transgender roommate. In 2022, Nicholas Roske, who identifies as a transgender woman, approached Justice Brett Kavanaugh's home armed, with the attempt to assassinate him. 

Individuals who identified as transgender carried out separate school shootings in Minnesota and Tennessee in the years since. None of this proves causation, and the study's authors concede as much themselves, and a follow-up study is in the works.

"A second study is being designed to address some of the limitations of the study described herein," the authors explain in the conclusion. "This second study will take the causal direction issue head on by using an experimental design to test whether exposure to CGAS-consistent content produces the patterns predicted by the present theory. The cross-sectional correlations reported here constitute the discovery sample; the planned pre-registered experiment will constitute the confirmatory causal test."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 21:20

A Trillion Dollar Budget But Military Can't 'Afford' To Attack Mold On Bases?

Authored by Stavroula Pabst via Responsible Statecraft,

A new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report finds that the maintenance backlog for military installations has ballooned to more than $285 billion - leaving many facilities in disrepair, while risking readiness and service members' quality of life.

This figure is a jump up from 2022, when the maintenance backlog was about $137 billion. But the backlog continues to grow, because the services only request about 80% of the funds they need for installation repairs and maintenance.

"By requesting less funding for installation maintenance and improvement projects than its models and experts recommend, DOD has chosen to accept some degree of risk that mission or quality of life will be negatively affected," the report, released Friday, found.

Indeed, service members face a range of issues at the facilities where they work and live. Barracks at Naval Station Norfolk, for example, have had suspected mold since 2023. But the installation office declined requests to test the growth observed there "due to the cost of testing and potential remediation."

Another highly used facility at that Naval station had evidence of asbestos and significant water damage, GAO found. While all the station's piers require renovation, the Navy was "actively improving" only one - leaving the rest to operate in a "degraded condition."

At one Naval Base Guam facility, GAO observed, rust build-up and algae on an emergency door's lock could "affect the door's functionality during an emergency." The base's facilities have also been prone to HVAC failures and roof leaks, GAO found, leading to suspected mold.

Beyond physical hazards and operational risks, other issues undercut service members' overall quality of life.

About 3,000 soldiers live at Fort Wainwright, for example, yet the army installation's dining facility was only built to serve 800.

"The dining facility is not able to serve soldiers in a timely manner, so many opt to eat less-healthy food in their living spaces at their own expense, especially in the winter when it is too cold to wait in line outside," GAO found. Officials have repeatedly advocated for expanding the dining facility, but the installation has not yet received the funding needed to do so.

The maintenance backlog continues to swell despite the Pentagon's rapidly expanding budget. The White House requested a record $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY 2027.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 20:55

Geothermal Power Is Emerging As An AI Energy Source For The Trump Administration

A little-used corner of the clean-energy market is getting a potentially decisive trial in Utah. At a government-backed research site, engineers are testing whether equipment and expertise developed during America’s shale boom can turn deeply buried heat into a dependable source of electricity, according to Bloomberg.

Conventional geothermal power works only where heat, permeable rock and underground water happen to occur together. The newer approach tries to manufacture those conditions. Wells are drilled several miles down, water is sent through cracks in hot rock and the heated fluid is brought back to the surface, where its energy can be converted into electricity.

Bloomberg writes that success would considerably enlarge the industry’s geographic reach. Instead of being restricted to rare geological formations, geothermal projects could spread across parts of the western United States where sufficiently hot rock lies within drilling distance. Supporters envision a low-emission power source capable of operating day and night, regardless of sunlight or wind.

That consistency has become more valuable as data centers increase electricity demand. AI infrastructure requires enormous quantities of uninterrupted power, giving geothermal developers a potential customer base willing to sign long-term supply contracts. Fervo Energy, which is developing a project near the Utah research site, already has a deal connected to Alphabet, although commercial output there is not expected until later this year.

The Utah experiment is intended to answer whether the concept can work continuously outside a controlled demonstration. Researchers will watch how quickly the underground system loses heat, how much injected water disappears and whether repeated pumping produces problematic seismic activity. Even encouraging technical results will still need to be replicated at other locations and translated into commercially viable projects.

Geothermal has retained political support that wind and solar have recently lost. The Utah program began during the Obama years, has attracted $328 million in federal commitments since 2020 and remains supported by the Trump administration. Industry cost estimates suggest new geothermal facilities can already compete with several other forms of electricity generation, although drilling remains expensive and project development carries substantial geological risk.

The experiment could therefore determine whether enhanced geothermal becomes a meaningful national energy source or remains a promising niche. If developers can drill deeper, preserve underground heat and repeat the process at declining cost, technology inherited from the oil industry could help create a new class of always-available clean power plants.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 19:40