Central Asia Is Escaping The 'Backyard' Label

Authored by Ziaulhaq Tanin via RealClearWorld,

Three decades after their independence, Central Asia is still often viewed through outdated geopolitical lenses - a region once called "Russia's backyard" and more recently as an arena of competition among Russia, China, and the West. Yet this familiar narrative no longer captures the region's strategic reality. Central Asian states are increasingly using great-power rivalry not simply to navigate external pressure, but to expand their own choices and strategic room for maneuver.

This transformation is driven not by a single event but by the convergence of several trends: the war in Ukraine, new connectivity corridors, China's growing role, deeper engagement of Europe, Türkiye, and the Gulf states, and regional efforts to reduce dependence on a single power. Together, these developments are reshaping the traditional framework of regional politics and creating new space for Central Asia to redefine its position.

The central question is no longer who will dominate Central Asia, but whether its states can turn this changing geopolitical environment into greater strategic autonomy. This article argues that the region is moving from the logic of "backyard" toward that of a "crossroads" - a transition shaped not by the departure of major powers, but by the growing agency of Central Asia itself.

The Ukraine War and the End of Geopolitical Monopoly

For decades, Central Asia was viewed largely through the lens of Russian influence. The legacy of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union created deep security, economic, and cultural ties between Moscow and the region - ties that endured after independence through institutions such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Yet today's transformation does not reflect the collapse of these connections; it marks the end of an era in which a single power could define Central Asia's strategic trajectory.

The war in Ukraine did not initiate this shift, but it accelerated existing trends. Even before 2022, regional states were diversifying foreign relations, reducing traditional dependencies, and seeking alternative routes of connectivity. The war exposed more clearly the risks of relying on a single partner or corridor, prompting governments to reshape their security, trade, and connectivity policies around a wider range of options.

For years, Central Asia faced a geopolitical paradox: despite its central position in Eurasia, access to the global economy depended largely on Soviet-era networks. These historical, infrastructural, economic, and security links reinforced Russia's position as the region's dominant external actor.

The war did not dismantle this structure, but it revealed the costs of dependence on traditional routes. Western sanctions on Russia and disruptions to established trade corridors pushed regional governments to pursue alternatives. The central question became whether its geography would remain a historical constraint or become a source of strategic choice.

This shift is most visible in the growing importance of the Middle Corridor, linking China and Europe through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye. More than a trade route, it offers alternative to Soviet-era connectivity and allows Central Asian states to turn geography into a strategic asset. Kazakhstan, with its location and natural resources, stands at the center of this transformation, illustrating how the region is increasingly using great-power competition to expand its own choices.

At the same time, competition around Central Asia has broadened. China has expanded its presence through investment and infrastructure, Russia remains a security actor, while the West, Türkiye, and Gulf states have strengthened their roles in energy, trade, and strategic resources. The wider external engagement has increased regional room for maneuver, but it has also made balancing competing interests more demanding.

From Balance of Power to Balance of Options

In Central Asia, independence has never meant complete freedom from great-power influence. Geography, history, and economic ties have made such separation unrealistic. The challenge has therefore not been to sever these ties, but to prevent any single partnership from becoming source of decisive dependency. In this context, independence is increasingly defined not by distance from any power, but by the ability to preserve multiple options and manage competing relationships.

This shift is evident in the foreign policy of Central Asian states. Rather than choosing between major powers, they are using the simultaneous presence of different actors to expand their strategic room for maneuver. This is a form of practical autonomy: not on isolation from great powers, but the ability to engage with several partners at once.

The region's transformation also extends beyond the traditional Russia - China - West triangle. Gulf states have become increasingly active in Central Asia through investments in energy, infrastructure, transport, mining, and trade, with the United Arab Emirates emerging as an important partner in renewable energy, logistics, and infrastructure projects. For the Central Asian states, these ties offer opportunities to diversify economic partnerships and attract new investment; for Gulf countries, the region's strategic location and role in the emerging Eurasian connectivity routes have made it increasingly important.

Kazakhstan is a prominent example of this approach. Despite its long border with Russia and deep historical ties to Moscow, Astana has expanded its economic ties with China while strengthening cooperation with Europe and other partners. Its goal is not to replace one partner with another, but to maintain diversified relationships to increase strategic flexibility and reduces overdependence on any single power.

Uzbekistan has followed a similar path since 2016, gradually opening its economy and pursuing a more active regional diplomacy. Tashkent's has sought to broaden cooperation with multiple partners including Russia, China, Europe, and the United States while increasing its strategic flexibility.

The experience of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan shows that Central Asia's transformation is not only a result of changing great-power behavior. It also depends on whether regional states can turn this evolving geopolitical space into bargaining power.

Beyond Geopolitics: The Return of Identity

For decades, Central Asia was largely defined by narratives shaped outside the region itself - from the legacy of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union to contemporary perspectives based on great-power competition. Today, however, regional states are increasingly seeking to define their history and place in the world beyond the lens of external powers. This shift shows that the struggle over Central Asia's position is not taking place only through trade routes and security calculations; it is also unfolding at the level of the historical and political identity.

Central Asia's departure from the logic of "backyard" is visible not only in the change in its foreign ties, but also in efforts by regional states to redefine their historical standing. Since independence - and especially in recent years - the Central Asian states have gradually tried to adjust their national narratives beyond the frameworks left over from the Soviet era.

From Tajikistan's emphasis on its Persian heritage, to strengthening cultural ties among Turkic-speaking states, and Uzbekistan's renewed engagement with its historical past, this trend shows that the competition over the region's future is not limited to economics and security. It is also a competition over narratives, and identity. Ultimately, it shows that Central Asian states are trying to define their status based on historical experience and their own interests.

Central Asia's Future: Sphere of Influence or Hub of Connectivity?

For decades, Central Asia's geography was seen as a constraint - a region caught between great powers, whit its security, economic, and connectivity shaped largely by external interests. Today, that same geography is becoming a strategic asset, expanding the region's choices and influence.

Central Asian governments are no longer merely adapting to geopolitical changes; they are using it to widen their strategic options. More diverse partnerships and new connectivity corridors have expanded their diplomatic flexibility.

Great-power competition has not disappeared. Russia remains the principal security actor, China the leading economic partner, while west, Türkiye and the Gulf states continue expanding their presence. What has changed is that no single relationship can define the region's future. Geography alone is insufficient; without stronger institutions and independent decision-making, new routes of connectivity could simply produce new form of dependence.

Ultimately, Central Asia's transformation is not about replacing one dominant power with another, but about expanding regional agency. Russia, China, and other actors will remain influential, yet no single power is likely to define the region's future alone. The region's states are turning geography into leverage - not to escape power competition, but to shape the conditions in which they have more choices.

Ziaulhaq Tanin is a University lecturer, researcher, and analyst specializing in international security, regionalism, and foreign policy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 22:15

Japan's NEC Halts Quantum Computer Project After Decades Of Research

NEC has ended its effort to develop a working quantum computer, reportedly deciding that the project would take too long to deliver an acceptable return on investment, according to a new report by Nikkei.

The move represents a significant change in direction for a company that has been involved in quantum computing research for more than three decades.

NEC was among the earliest companies to pursue the technology, beginning its research in the 1990s and achieving a major breakthrough in 1999 with the first demonstration of superconducting qubits. Those qubits remain one of the principal approaches used in quantum computer development today. Despite that early lead, NEC discontinued work on its own physical quantum computer at the end of March.

Nikkei reported that the company will continue pursuing quantum-related technologies and services, including quantum annealing, which is used to find efficient solutions to complex optimization problems. NEC also plans to expand services that use conventional computers to simulate quantum computing.

The shift suggests that management sees a more immediate commercial opportunity in applying quantum-related techniques than in funding the lengthy and expensive development of its own hardware.

NEC’s retreat comes as other major players continue investing heavily in the field. IBM and Google remain prominent competitors in the United States, while China is advancing quantum computing through coordinated public- and private-sector efforts.

In Japan, Fujitsu is continuing its research and signed an agreement in August with an Australian university and government research institution to collaborate on quantum-related projects.

The industry has nevertheless made meaningful technical progress over the past two to three years. Google’s Willow processor, introduced in 2024, demonstrated that error rates could decline as additional qubits were added, an important step toward building larger and more reliable systems.

Microsoft and Quantinuum have also reported advances in error correction, while Amazon’s Ocelot prototype, unveiled in 2025, was designed to reduce the hardware required to produce reliable logical qubits. Increasingly, the challenge is not simply to build machines with more qubits, but to make those qubits stable enough to perform useful calculations.

That progress has yet to resolve the commercial question. IBM’s experimental Loon chip, unveiled in November 2025, forms part of its effort to develop a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, while Google reported another quantum-advantage demonstration in October.

Such milestones show that the technology is advancing, but they do not establish when quantum computers will become broadly useful or economically viable. NEC’s decision therefore illustrates the distinction between scientific progress and investment returns: the industry may be moving forward, but the timetable for turning those advances into a profitable business remains uncertain.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 21:40

China's Provinces Show Evidence Of Financial Pressure And The Economy's Imbalances

Authored by Milton Ezrati via The Epoch Times,

Some 28 provinces and separate jurisdictions increasingly have had to turn to Beijing for help closing budget gaps, according to China's Ministry of Finance.

People walk next to a screen with a stocks indicator in the Jing'an district in Shanghai, China, on April 7, 2025. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images

It is not unusual for Beijing to have to chip in. It gets the lion's share of the country's tax revenues. But the growing need to turn to Beijing nonetheless points to the economy's imbalances and other problems.

Some transfers from Beijing have occurred since the country's tax-sharing reforms were implemented in the 1990s. Beijing gets all income tax revenues from both individuals and companies, all securities trading levies, and all customs duties.

Provinces and like entities must depend almost entirely on deed and land appreciation taxes. Even during the boom years of property development, some provinces needed help. Few had what the Chinese call budgetary "self-sufficiency ratios" at 100 percent.

Outlining the most recent data from this year's first quarter, the deputy director general of the finance ministry's budget department, Tang Zaifu, downplayed the troubling direction of provincial finances. The figures, however, make clear that self-sufficiency has deteriorated and dependency has grown.

Now, Beijing must cover half the budget needs of the 22 provinces under its control and an additional five separate jurisdictions. (Beijing claims 23 provinces, but one, Taiwan, manages its own budget and obviously is not subject to the People's Republic of China's governance.)

The needs of this large number of jurisdictions vary greatly. It is significant, however, that even Shanghai - one of the country's richest areas - failed to meet its own budget needs during this year's opening quarter - this for the first time since the pandemic.

Some areas have done comparatively well. Zhejiang, for instance, managed a self-sufficiency ratio of just over 96 percent. Other rich areas, such as Shandong and Guangdong provinces, showed self-sufficiency ratios exceeding 70 percent.

Other areas did less well, a lot less well. Filling all the budget gaps will cost Beijing some 10.5 trillion yuan, more than a third of the government's entire budget.

Though arcane in many respects, these budget needs and burdens offer yet other perspectives on the imbalances in China's economy and finances.

The first point that becomes clear is how much China's economic reality has changed since the still-prevailing budget reform rules of the 1990s. Those revenue-sharing arrangements, implicitly dependent on a booming property development sector, are simply no longer viable. The still-ongoing property crisis has thoroughly reordered the economy.

These budget figures also point, albeit obliquely, to how narrowly focused China's economy has become. The only reliable growth lies in the mostly high-technology sectors favored by Beijing's "Made in China 2025" program.

Broad-based development has received short shrift, including the Chinese consumer and investments in other, mostly privately owned sectors, making China's economy narrower and more export-dependent than ever.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 21:05

This Labor Day Take A Closer Look At America's Deadliest Jobs, Ranked

Labor Day is a time to recognize the contributions of American workers, but it also draws attention to the risks many face on the job.

Logging was the most dangerous occupation in America in 2024, with 110.4 fatal work injuries per 100,000 full time equivalent workers, more than 33 times the national rate of 3.3, according to a new study by Moneygeek.

Fishing and hunting workers ranked second at 88.8, followed by roofers at 48.7, structural iron and steel workers at 37.8, and refuse and recyclable collectors at 37.4. Each of the five occupations had a fatality rate at least 11 times the national average, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries.

The Labor Day reminder is especially stark when looking at the national toll. A total of 5,070 workers died from job related injuries in 2024, equivalent to one death every 104 minutes. That was a 4% decline from 5,283 deaths in 2023 and marked the second consecutive annual decrease. The national fatality rate also fell from 3.7 per 100,000 workers in 2022 to 3.5 in 2023 and 3.3 in 2024.

The occupations with the highest fatality rates are not necessarily those with the most deaths. Logging recorded 51 fatalities, while driver/sales workers and truck drivers accounted for 950, the largest total of any occupation, despite a substantially lower rate of 25.7 per 100,000.

Moneygeek wrote that construction laborers recorded 334 deaths at a rate of 15.8. The difference reflects workforce size, since a smaller occupation can carry a much greater risk per worker without producing the largest number of fatalities.

The dangers also vary considerably by occupation. Contact with objects and equipment accounted for 40 of the 51 logging deaths, while falls, slips and trips caused 83 of the 104 roofing fatalities.

Transportation incidents were the leading cause in several other high risk occupations, including truck driving, fishing, refuse collection and grounds maintenance. Nationwide, transportation incidents caused 1,937 fatal work injuries, representing 38.2% of all workplace deaths.

The data also highlights the growing toll among older workers. Workers age 65 and older recorded 824 fatal work injuries in 2024, a five year high and a 21.9% increase from 2020. Their share of all workplace deaths rose from 14.2% to 16.3% over that period.

The under 25 group also saw a 19.3% increase, while workers ages 55 to 64 were the only age group to record a decline.

Fatality risk and nonfatal injury rates tell different stories. Forestry and logging had a nonfatal injury rate of 1.3 per 100 workers, below the private industry average of 2.3, despite logging’s exceptionally high fatality rate.

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction showed a similar contrast, with a nonfatal rate of 1.2. Waste collection and transportation and warehousing, meanwhile, recorded higher nonfatal injury rates of 4.7 and 4.4, respectively. The figures show that the jobs with the greatest risk of death are not always those reporting the most nonfatal injuries.

Workplace risk also varies by state. Wyoming had the highest fatality rate in 2024 at 13.9 deaths per 100,000 workers, followed by Mississippi at 8.0, Alaska at 7.1 and North Dakota at 6.8. Rhode Island had the lowest rate at 1.1, while Texas stood above the national average at 3.9. These differences reflect where hazardous industries and work activities are concentrated rather than where workers permanently reside.

For workers in dangerous occupations, the risks highlighted by Labor Day can also raise questions about financial protection for their families. A hazardous job does not automatically prevent someone from obtaining life insurance.

According to Ethos Chief Underwriter Nichole Myers, underwriting focuses on the specific activities a worker performs, such as working at heights or operating heavy machinery, rather than relying solely on a job title. Ethos reports that approximately 86% of applicants in dangerous job categories are approved for coverage, close to its overall approval rate.

Occupational risk may affect how an application is evaluated, but it does not necessarily make coverage unavailable.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 20:30

Court Rules Pentagon Can Fire Stars And Stripes Journalists

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

A district court denied a motion from three Stars and Stripes journalists that sought to block the Department of War from firing them.

The Pentagon in Arlington, Va., in a file photo. Carolyn Kaster/AP

While plaintiffs argue that the terminations "violate their First Amendment rights to communicate as citizens on matters of public concern," such rights have "some limitations" when applied to people employed in public service, Judge Trevor N. McFadden, from the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, said in the Sept. 4 order.

"When government employees provide public commentary in their official capacity, their speech is government speech, and the First Amendment does not apply," the judge said, adding that the plaintiffs have not demonstrated any "irreparable harm."

The journalists - Max D. Lederer, Erik A. Slavin, and Lara S. Korte - filed their lawsuit on Aug. 27.

On July 5, Korte and Slavin gave interviews to CBS News. The program discussed changes to Pentagon regulations governing Stars and Stripes and their impact on its independence.

Korte said that restrictions may come on her reporting. "I'm working for Stars and Stripes ... not for the Pentagon, not for any administration, not for any policymaker. I'm here to cover the military community," she said.

Meanwhile, Slavin said he would not comply if the Pentagon requested depictions of the story that were inaccurate.

On Aug. 11, Stars and Stripes published a story about "deteriorating conditions" aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, according to the lawsuit. The vessel had been on extended duty amid the U.S.-Iran war.

On Aug. 12, a day after the article was published, Lederer was allegedly ordered to give Slavin and Korte Notices of Separation, citing insubordination for statements made in the July 5 interview.

However, Lederer did not deliver the notices. Instead, he announced his retirement.

Moreover, on Aug. 18, Lederer gave an interview with Stripes, raising concerns about the "direction" of the publication, the complaint said.

On Aug. 21, the Pentagon delivered Notices of Separation for all three plaintiffs, accusing them of insubordination and violating other Department of Defense rules, according to the lawsuit. Defendants in the case include the Pentagon and officials from the department.

"Defendants seek to terminate Plaintiffs because they publicly expressed their personal opinions about Stripes' operations as citizens and because Defendants disapproved of Stripes' publication of the Lincoln Story. The terminations violate Plaintiffs' First Amendment rights," the lawsuit said.

The U.S. Central Command has accused media reports of publishing false reports regarding USS Abraham Lincoln, including one which claimed multiple sailors died aboard the ship in a fight. "No service members aboard the aircraft carrier have died," the Central Command said.

According to the recent court order in Slavin and Korte, the judge held that the plaintiffs failed to show that they participated in the CBS News interview as private citizens.

As for Lederer, the judge observed that his "failure to carry out a directive from a supervisor finds no shelter under the First Amendment."

The judge denied the plaintiffs' motion for a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction.

The Epoch Times reached out to the legal representative for Slavin, Korte, and Lederer for comment and did not receive a response by publication time.

The Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, which provides free legal services to news organizations and journalists, said in a Sept. 4 statement that the court should block the War Department from terminating the three employees.

"The government's actions in this case pose a threat to the historical independence of a news outlet that publishes stories of interest to the U.S. military community," the group said.

Meanwhile, the USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in Thailand this week after spending 286 days at sea. The roughly 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard the vessel got the chance to be on land for the first time since November last year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 20:00

UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift

Socialist Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has eroded in recent weeks, leaving both statistically tied in UBS' latest runoff polling average. 

Arend Kapteyn, UBS' global head of economics and strategy research, described the upcoming election in early October as "extremely close" in a note to clients on Monday.

Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)

Kapteyn's note today puts Bolsonaro at 50.4% in a hypothetical runoff, against 49.6% for Lula, adding that the narrowing spread leaves the candidates statistically tied. 

Kapteyn continued:

On 4 October, Brazilians will vote for a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. Brazil currently has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, contributing to increasingly adverse debt dynamics. In our view, an election outcome that delivers a credible fiscal consolidation program could significantly improve the macroeconomic outlook. Relative to our baseline, real interest rates could fall by at least 2.5 percentage points (to around 5% from 7.5%), potential growth could be 1pp higher (2.5% rather than 1.5%), and inflation could be around 1pp lower (3.5% rather than 4.5%).

Our poll aggregator currently shows first-round voting intentions of 42.5% for Lula and 36.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Given the historical polling error of approximately 3 percentage points, the candidates' confidence intervals overlap. Rejection rates are elevated for both candidates, while other contenders collectively attract 21.5% of voting intentions. If no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round, a runoff will be held on 25 October.

The second round appears even tighter. Lula currently polls at 49.6% of voting intentions versus 50.4% for Flávio. Compared with our poll update a week ago, the lead has effectively changed hands. Importantly, these surveys were conducted before the latest controversy involving a Supreme Court justice, who is alleged to have advised an individual under fraud investigation, a case that could potentially implicate key allies within Lula's inner circle.

Historically, incumbent presidents have generally secured re-election when their "good or great" approval rating exceeded 40%. Lula currently stands at 37% on this measure. Conversations with two political consultants also suggest that momentum may be shifting in Flávio's favour. Nevertheless, prediction markets continue to assign Lula a modest advantage. Polymarket implies odds of roughly 55%-43% in Lula's favour, while Kalshi places the race at approximately 55%-44%.

Polymarket Odds:

Read:

• Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Disappear As Bolsonaro Heir Turns Presidential Election Into Coin Toss
• Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Evaporating, New Poll Shows

The election may determine whether Brazil moves further left or right politically. Across the continent, the latest country to shift right was Colombia. Many others have followed:

By mid-2026, South America had already flipped. Argentina (Milei), Chile (Kast), Colombia (de la Espriella), Peru (Keiko Fujimori), Ecuador (Noboa), Bolivia (Paz), and Paraguay (Peña) sit on the right.

The remaining large left-wing governments are Brazil and Uruguay. Brazil accounts for about half of South America's GDP and population. If Brazil goes right, the region would be entirely aligned with the Trump administration and would be on track to rid itself of nation-killing socialism and other failed progressive experiments.

In Germany on Sunday, right-wing Alternative für Deutschland delivered its strongest election result ever in Saxony-Anhalt, dealing a sharp blow to the political establishment. Nomura analysts indicate that Europe may be in the early stages of "lurching right" (read the report).

Putting this all together, Western voters are rejecting nation-killing left-wing regimes that have done nothing more than allow mass migration, pursue progressive experiments, and neuter the West's industrial and power grids with climate change policies, which has only given China a leg up in the AI and weapons race. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 19:30

Chinese Oil Demand Unexpectedly Soars, Sending Shanghai Crude Above $100, With Brent Prices Set To Follow

One of the reasons why the price of oil failed to soar during the "actively kinetic" phase of the Iran war, when shipments through Hormuz were effectively halted and the world faced a shortage of about 10-15mm barrels of oil per day, is that Chinese oil demand suddenly evaporated. Whether due to a sharp slowdown in the economy (which after the sudden "recap" of China's banks appears quite likely) or due to an aggressive drain of China's strategic reserve, the reality is that, as discussed here extensively, both Chinese oil imports...

... and local product refining...

... cratered for much of 2026, signaling that Chinese oil demand has indeed plunged.

But no more: one of the telltale signs of the period of weak Chinese demand was the collapse in the Brent-Shanghai crude spread, which traded as negative as -$20 in late April. However, in the past few weeks, we have seen a dramatic jump in Shanghai crude, which is trading just shy of the highest level hit since the Iran war, well above $100. More importantly, it now trading a sizable premium to Brent, indicating that the period of weak Chinese demand is finally over (whether because the economy is finally recovering or simply to squeeze Trump ahead of his summit with Xi, not to mention the midterms, remains tbd). 

And sure enough, as Bloomberg report, China - the world's largest oil importer - is now aggressively bidding up crude prices across Africa, Canada, and Latin American markets as disruptions in the Hormuz chokepoint and limited Iranian supplies intensify competition for alternatives. The scramble is squeezing smaller Chinese refineries that once relied on heavily discounted Iranian barrels; the same refineries simply shut down a few months ago when there was not enough domestic demand.

But now, something has finally flipped, and demand for oil is suddenly soaring, sending Shanghai crude above $100 and threatening to push Brent prices - earlier today rising above $97 for the first time in over a month - also above $100 for the first time since May. 

The renewed Chinese buying marks a major shift from a period when subdued Chinese buying helped restrain crude oil prices. With Iranian exports almost entirely shut off by the US blockade and fighting flaring again, as seen Monday when Saudi Aramco's Jizan oil facilities were reportedly hit, the race to find replacement supplies around the world is becoming an increasingly expensive task for the Chinese. 

Here is what some traders who spoke with Bloomberg had to say: 

The turnaround is producing spikes in the price of various grades. Congo's Djeno crude was offered to Chinese buyers at premiums of as high as $20 a barrel over ICE Brent this week, up from around $15 a couple of weeks ago, according to traders who asked not to be named as they're not authorized to speak to the media.

Chinese buyers are also buying tanker loads of crude from Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, while stronger demand has lifted prices for Russia's ESPO crude. Asian buyers are also pushing Dubai crude futures toward $100 per barrel.  

While Chinese seaborne crude imports are still below prewar levels and are currently trending toward 10 million barrels per day, the Shanghai crude spread indicates that imports are aggressively rising, and that the race for alternative supplies may still intensify. 

Bloomberg pointed out that the rebound in crude imports comes as refinery math improves and inventories are being rebuilt in China. Improved processing margins, the resumption of fuel exports, and commercial restocking are encouraging refiners to ramp up purchases, according to GL Consulting founder Liao Na. 

Smaller independent refiners, known as teapots, face the greatest pressure because their traditional sourcing channels for Iranian and Venezuelan crude have eroded this year as access to those supplies has collapsed amid the Trump administration's push to rewire global energy markets. 

Liao said, "China's robust buying lately is largely driven by refiners taking advantage of decent margins," adding, "Active restocking by commercial players has also helped, but it’s not necessarily a sign of stronger underlying demand that’s supporting the recovery."

Separately, Goldman Sachs energy expert Daan Struyven expects China's ability to adjust purchases to prices to help moderate any spikes in crude prices, although he also warned that Brent may rally to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase.

“Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

Goldman's preferred way to trade another oil spike is buy going long natural gas and diesel as a way to capture gains:  “While we see meaningful upside to crude oil prices, we do recommend to investors to hedge geopolitical risks by going long in global natural gas and refined-oil products,” Struyven said, referring to bets on gains. “The supply shocks are bigger than in the crude market.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 19:04

Hunter Biden To Launch Memecoin, Will Send To TRUMP Holders

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Hunter Biden will reportedly distribute 200 million of the LAPTOP token to his substack subscribers, members of a mailing list and investors in President Donald Trump’s memecoin.

Hunter Biden, son of former US President Joe Biden, announced that he plans to launch a memecoin based on the reports of his infamous laptop, which has been subject to intense media scrutiny.

In a Monday announcement on X, Hunter Biden posted the memecoin’s ticker symbol, $LAPTOP, signaling a Wednesday launch. The Wall Street Journal reported that Biden would send 20% of the one-billion token supply to substack subscribers, members of a mailing list and investors in President Donald Trump’s memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), whose value has dropped by about 97% since reaching an all-time high price in January 2025.

Source: Hunter Biden

The basis for the memecoin’s namesake is Biden’s computer, whose existence and contents were subject to scrutiny before the 2020 election, in which his father was running against Trump. The laptop continues to be invoked by many right-wing media figures and was the subject of two lawsuits filed by Biden over privacy laws. 

Since his father left office in January 2025, Biden has stepped up his rhetoric on crypto and blockchain, specifically criticizing the Trump family’s entanglements with the industry through its World Liberty Financial business. 

In August, he called World Liberty “corruption at a scale we’ve never seen,” comparing its business practices with those of defunct crypto exchange FTX and pointing to its ties to foreign governments like the UAE. Biden also said in June that “decentralized digital currency and the blockchain are the inevitable future.”

The LAPTOP founders, holding 30% of the token supply, will reportedly burn up to 30% of the memecoins depending on the outcome of events, including a Democrat winning the presidency in 2028, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching an all-time high and LAPTOP’s fully diluted value exceeding TRUMP’s.

CLARITY Act vote set for later this month

The LAPTOP memecoin, if launched as planned, could shine more of a spotlight on Trump’s crypto ventures at a time when lawmakers in Congress are considering a comprehensive market structure bill to regulate the digital asset industry. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, also known as the CLARITY Act, is scheduled for a cloture vote in the Senate on Sept. 15.

Cointelegraph reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 18:00

Unhinged Passenger Duct-Taped on Flight Is Identified, Fired From Job

An American Airlines flight was forced into an emergency landing Thursday evening after an unhinged passenger was duct-taped to his seat after a racist, sexist meltdown, according to multiple reports.

The raging flyer, identified as 67-year-old Arthur Layne Lundeen, allegedly hurled the N-word and anti-gay slurs at flight attendants and unloaded a series of "very offensive" remarks at female passengers, eyewitnesses told ABC News.

Fellow passenger Richard O'Lenick told NJ.com that Lundeen made statements about Jesus and said the plane was going to crash, then struck a pastor seated next to him and a woman who intervened. Witnesses said Lundeen had been served at least one drink.

That prompted O'Lenick and his coworker Juan Mejia, a retired Weehawken police officer, to step in. According to the New York Times, Lundeen bit Mejia's hand before a flight attendant handed over the tape that Mejia wrapped around the man's body, seat and head.

Shocking footage shows Lundeen's head, hands and torso duct-taped to the chair and his wrists bound together.

The Dallas-to-Newark flight was diverted to Baltimore, where Lundeen was hauled off the plane and arrested before passengers could continue on to their destination, according to the New York Post.

Lundeen was charged with misdemeanor second-degree assault and disorderly conduct, while the real estate agent's employer, Long Realty, cut ties in a statement.

"Long Realty is aware of reports concerning criminal charges filed against a former affiliated real estate agent arising from an incident that allegedly occurred during a commercial flight.

"Upon learning of the incident, Long Realty promptly ended its affiliation with the individual. The individual is no longer associated with or authorized to represent Long Realty in any capacity.

"The conduct described in the reports is wholly inconsistent with the professionalism, integrity, compassion, and respect for others that Long Realty expects from those affiliated with the company. We expect those associated with our company to uphold those values, and we have no tolerance for conduct that so clearly falls short of those expectations. Our thoughts are with the passengers, crew members, and others affected by this incident."

Federal authorities are now weighing whether to file additional charges.

"The FBI is currently conducting interviews to gather the facts and will consult with the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Maryland to determine if federal charges will be filed," the bureau said in a statement.

Lundeen was released on his own recognizance on Sept. 4 and waived an attorney at his initial appearance, court records show. His trial is set for Oct. 19 in Anne Arundel County District Court. The charges are allegations and he is presumed innocent.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 17:30

Canada's Tariff Strategy Designed To Interfere With U.S. Midterm Elections

Late last month, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from a trade deal with the United States. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Canada was "offered the best trade deal of any country on the globe," but Carney abandoned the deal "at the last minute."

According to the White House, "the U.S. offered Canada the most preferential market access of any country on Earth, with deep cuts on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber, and more. Instead of partnership, Canada chose unreasonable demands, walk-backs, and flat-out rejection." Canada responded with retaliation rather than negotiation, becoming the only other country besides China to do so.

And the reason is that Canada is trying to influence the 2026 midterm elections in the United States.

After the trade negotiations failed, Canadian officials announced that tariffs of up to 50% will hit roughly 700 American products starting September 8, covering close to $20 billion in goods, about 7% of everything Canada imports from the United States. The rates range from 15% to 50%, and tariffs on American steel and aluminum will double from 25% to 50%. This was a targeted economic strike meant to hit key states before the midterm elections.

Ottawa has barely bothered to deny it. Canadian Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said the tariffs were built to apply political pressure on specific states, telling reporters: "We are also targeting products that can target specific states in the United States. We are being smart and strategic in order to apply political pressure, and I think it's the right thing to do right now."

Asked directly about the political intent by the Canadian Broadcasting Corp., Joly did not walk it back: "We are putting pressure clearly on different states and different people. We don't want to do that. We don't want this trade war. We didn't start it."

The target list reads like a midterm map. Cheese products from Wisconsin. Washers and dryers from Kentucky, where GE Appliances is a major employer. Steel, aluminum and auto parts from Michigan. The Wall Street Journal reported that Canadian officials designed the package to protect domestic industry and to "sting President Trump and his Republican Party" heading into November.

"The states that are most reliant on Canada as an export market are often the northern-tier states - Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire," Ed Gresser told the Wall Street Journal. He argued that Canada is "trying to show the Republican party that there's a systemic cost to doing this sort of thing."

Trade consultant Eric Miller, who heads the Washington-based Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, said Canada picked targets with available substitutes, either domestic production or imports from Mexico and China, items like air conditioners and appliances, while simultaneously hitting producers in swing states and reliably Republican territory.

Nowhere was the targeting clearer than Maine, and nowhere did it collapse faster. Ottawa's original list carried a 25% tariff on American lobster, set to bite during the fall season when roughly half of Maine's catch goes to Canadian processors. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), facing re-election in November, had already warned that the trade war would hurt her state. The Maine Lobstermen's Association warned on Aug. 26 that the duty would land at the worst possible moment for an industry running on thin margins.

One day later, Canada removed seafood and fish products from the list entirely, citing "select adjustments" made "based on feedback" while insisting it was maintaining a dollar-for-dollar response. Collins applauded the reversal. Ottawa aimed at a vulnerable Republican senator's most iconic industry, took one day of political heat from that state, and backed off - which tells you the aim was never really about lobster.

The rest of the list is still standing.

Desjardins Capital Markets economist Royce Mendes estimates that the tariffs could add about 0.2 percentage points to Canadian inflation, already near 3%. The central bank is already managing higher energy costs and the risk of a slowdown, which makes this move extremely complicated for Canada, and, according to Corpay chief market strategist Karl Schamotta, Canada's strategy may backfire.

"An intensified trade war will hurt the country more than the U.S.," Schamotta explained. "Countertariffs will not help. In Canada, just as in the U.S., they are effectively taxes on domestic consumption. They raise the cost of living while doing little to shift trade balances or improve overall economic welfare."

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 16:30

Hackers Withdraw 320 Million In Bitcoin From Blockstream's Liquid Network Federation Reserves

Authored by Juan Galt via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The Liquid Network said Sunday that purported white-hat hackers withdrew about 4,000 bitcoin, worth about $320 million, from the federation wallet that backs L-BTC.

Bridge nodes were disabled, and the sidechain was paused. Other issued assets, including USDT, DePix and RWAs, were unaffected, the official account said on X.

The Liquid Network is a federated sidechain of Bitcoin, founded by Adam Back’s Blockstream. The Liquid chain issues a variety of assets such as LBTC, which it backs with BTC on the Bitcoin main chain, held in a large multisig of 15 corporate and known members. 11 of the 15 members need to sign a valid multi-signature transaction to move coins from the treasury. Before the hack, the treasury held over 4200 BTC; after the hack, Blockstream’s proof of reserves page reports a little over 207 BTC left. 

The hackers withdrew 4,019.4 BTC from the reserve address in a peg-out transaction using the SideSwap Peg-out Authorization Key. SideWap is a bridge exchange and a member of the Liquid Federation. While details on the mechanism of the hack are not confirmed yet, it appears an inflation bug on the LBTC side chain was exploited by the hackers to create over 4,000 LBTC that did not exist before, and cash them out for on-chain bitcoin from the federation. Because the transaction appeared as valid, given the consensus bug, the federation members’ HSM security servers signed the BTC withdrawal transaction, worth roughly 320 million at the time. 

The hacker moved the funds to an address ending in 6gyqjlte, from which they quickly signed a new transaction with a message on the OP_RETURN arbitrary data field saying “we are whitehats. contact us on chain.” Those coins were still at that address at the time of writing.

A small mainnet transaction to the hacker address followed by an OP_RETURN saying “Please contact security@blockstream.com”, presumably from a Blockstream public address, though that remains unconfirmed. A later OP_RETURN spend from the hacker address carried “Please contact us on Signal @m671aw.70”, however, this may be spam and does not share a link to the address with the stolen funds.

In response to the breach, exchanges were told to pause L-BTC deposits and withdrawals. Bridge nodes on the Liquid Network have been paused, limiting access to the side chain, which continues to produce blocks. 

JAN3 CEO Samson Mow said Aqua’s Liquid features were affected and that on-chain bitcoin still worked. Other wallets in the industry that use the Liquid Network are expected to be affected. Users holding LBTC now effectively have their savings at risk, since the underlying BTC is currently not redeemable. Given the private nature of the Liquid chain, user onchain analytics are scarce and not much public information is known about how much LBTC is held by retail users versus corporations of Blockstream itself. Nevertheless, should the funds not be returned, it would be a heavy blow to the Liquid Network’s user base.

Users of LBTC don’t have many options but to wait for conversations with the hackers to resolve. Given the size of the hack, it would be difficult for the hackers to get away with stealing all that bitcoin, though perhaps not impossible.

What may happen is that the hackers ask for a finder’s fee and return the majority of the funds. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 16:00

Iron Ore Bottom In? Prices Reclaim $100 On "Improving Downstream Conditions"

Iron ore futures in Singapore surged above $100 a ton, the highest level since mid-July, as tightening Chinese coking coal supplies lifted steelmaking costs and early signs of improving seasonal demand supported prices across the steel supply chain.

Rafael Barcellos, head of Latin American metals and mining, pulp and paper equity research at Bradesco BBI, wrote in a note last week that the coal squeeze is helping support steel prices, with rebar and hot-rolled coil reaching multi-month highs. Improving downstream conditions are, in turn, providing support for iron ore.

Barcellos pointed to China's August manufacturing purchasing managers' index as another encouraging economic signal. 

Iron ore inventories also continued to decline, spot activity at Chinese steel-trading houses increased for a second consecutive week, and steelmaker margins improved. Blast furnace utilization, however, declined for a second week, tempering the recovery picture.

Barcellos flagged a recovery: 

Even so, the recovery we flagged in VALE: Calling the Iron Ore Bottom? Attractive Asymmetry After 2Q26 Results is now playing out, with prices largely rebounding from the lows of the past couple of weeks — a trend we expect to persist amid firm cost support and improving downstream conditions. 

Barcellos' trade recommendation: 

Against this backdrop, we continue to favor Vale and Ternium over CSN, Gerdau, and Usiminas.

China's prolonged property downturn has weakened a major source of steel demand, weighing on iron ore prices despite periodic rebounds. 

The latest recovery to $100 a ton raises the question of whether improving seasonal conditions can translate into a sustained demand growth story, keeping prices in triple-digit territory. 

In the metals complex on Monday, London copper futures reached a new high of $14,530 a ton. For further context, we direct readers to our note, "The Copper Chart Causing Alarm."

Professional subscribers can read much more about the latest metals space here on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 15:30

Lawmakers Press DHS On Forced-Labor Import Enforcement

Authored by Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times,

A bipartisan group of lawmakers wants to know whether enforcement is keeping pace after the Department of Homeland Security last month added 43 companies to its forced-labor Entity List - the largest single expansion since the list was created.

Dolkun Isa, president of the World Uyghur Congress, at a U.S.-backed Uyghur photo exhibit of dozens of people who are missing or alleged to be held in CCP-run camps in Xinjiang, China in front of the United Nations in Geneva on Sept. 16, 2021. Denis Balibouse /Reuters

Their Sept. 3 letter welcomed the expansion but cited reports of "substantially declining detention activity" in some high-risk sectors, continued imports through transshipment hubs, and what the lawmakers described as "hundreds more Entity List packages" remaining in the approval pipeline.

Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Chris Smith (R-N.J.) led the request for a DHS briefing within 30 days. It was also signed by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), Young Kim (R-Calif.), and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.).

The lawmakers want DHS to explain what it is stopping at the border, what is being released, how quickly companies are being added to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Entity List, and how the government is tracing Chinese inputs that move through other countries before reaching the United States.

"Strong enforcement protects human rights, supports American workers, and helps ensure that U.S. businesses are not undercut by illegal and unfair trade practices," they wrote.

A Wider Range of Products

The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, or UFLPA, took effect in 2022. It creates a rebuttable presumption that goods made wholly or partly in Xinjiang, or by entities on the UFLPA Entity List, were made with forced labor and are barred from entering the United States unless the importer meets the law's requirements.

DHS said in its 2025 UFLPA strategy update that U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had reviewed more than 16,700 shipments worth nearly $3.7 billion under the law and denied entry to more than 10,000.

The government has also widened the range of products receiving closer scrutiny. Its high-priority sectors include apparel and cotton, seafood, aluminum, polysilicon, and newer areas such as copper, lithium, and steel.

The Aug. 3 Entity List expansion brought the total to 187 entities and reached industries ranging from textiles and food to pharmaceuticals, aluminum, copper, lithium, and battery materials.

One addition, Xinjiang Tianyun Organic Agriculture Co., produces fish, including salmon. The Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force said it had reasonable cause to believe Tianyun participates in government-sponsored recruitment and labor-transfer programs involving Uyghurs, Kazakhs, or Kyrgyz people. DHS also listed the company under a separate UFLPA category covering entities that source materials from Xinjiang or government-linked labor programs.

The lawmakers specifically asked DHS how it is handling forced-labor exposure in seafood supply chains, including abuses aboard fishing vessels, transshipment, and coordination with other federal agencies.

Labubu Brings the Issue to Consumer Goods

The congressional letter also points to consumer products, including Labubu toys made by Beijing-based Pop Mart.

In May, advocacy groups State Armor and the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation asked DHS and CBP to investigate after isotopic testing of 20 Labubu products purchased in the United States found that cotton in 16 was traceable to Xinjiang, according to their letter.

The groups asked CBP to detain and test related shipments and urged the Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force to consider adding Pop Mart and associated entities to the UFLPA Entity List. Their letter said the testing was conducted by Oritain, which uses chemical signatures to assess geographic origin.

That finding concerns where the cotton came from. A separate labor investigation has focused on Jiangxi Shunjia Toys Co., a major manufacturer of Labubu products for Pop Mart.

Labubu toys on display inside a Pop Mart store in San Jose, Calif., on June 6, 2025. Conner Lee/The Epoch Times

China Labor Watch said it interviewed 51 workers at the factory, which employed over 4,500 workers at the time, and documented alleged excessive overtime, wage deductions, irregular contracts, extensive use of dispatched labor, and other workplace problems.

Li Qiang, founder and executive director of China Labor Watch, told The Epoch Times on Sept. 4 that the organization's concerns go beyond ordinary violations of Chinese labor law.

"Our investigation identified indicators that we believe are relevant to a forced-labor assessment, including the withholding of workers' wages, elements of involuntary work, and exploitation of workers' vulnerabilities," Li said.

Li said China Labor Watch has submitted additional evidence to CBP that has not been made public while the matter remains under review.

"The central concern is whether particular employment practices restrict workers' genuine ability to leave or refuse work, rather than simply whether the factory violated Chinese labor law," Li told The Epoch Times.

Li said firsthand worker testimony is particularly important in forced-labor investigations but generally needs to be corroborated through interviews with other workers, employment and payment records, recruitment information, company and supply-chain records, photographs, and other documentation.

"The key issue is not simply demonstrating serious labor-law violations, but establishing evidence of coercion or other indicators relevant to forced labor," he said.

CBP has not publicly announced a Labubu-specific enforcement action.

Questions Over Enforcement

The lawmakers asked DHS for shipment outcomes broken down by sector and country, staffing levels devoted to UFLPA enforcement, the evidence importers must provide to overcome the law's presumption, and information on newer supply chains such as silicon-carbon battery anodes and critical minerals.

They also want to know how DHS is using artificial intelligence to check shipment country of origin and supply chain documentation, and how the department is working with foreign governments to reduce transshipment and strengthen forced labor import restrictions.

Under DHS's public process, any member agency of the Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force may recommend an entity for addition to the UFLPA Entity List. Member agencies review the recommendation, and additions are decided by majority vote.

CBP acknowledged questions from The Epoch Times about shipment releases, sector-specific enforcement trends and the difficulty of tracing Chinese upstream inputs through third countries, but said it needed more time to research the questions.

DHS had not responded by publication.

The lawmakers asked DHS to provide the briefing by Oct. 3.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 15:00

Welcome To The World That Now Exists

By Michael Every of Rabobank

We ended last week with the Dutch thinktank acknowledgement that "The world as we knew it no longer exists.” We start this week knowing many are going to be profoundly uncomfortable with the new world that replaces it.  Not the weekend op-ed in the Financial Times asking, ‘Is Keynesianism dead?’ adding “When debt is the disease, fiscal medicine may be as likely to harm as heal,” though that will shock many. Nor that the US just blew up three Iranian tankers, and Iran is firing at others, when such economic warfare is only going to drive inflation higher.

Rather, Germany’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt saw the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) emerge by far the largest party with 44%, over double what it got in the last election. It may be able to govern alone depending on what happens to smaller parties falling under the 5% threshold. If not, it will need a coalition partner. The mainstream --but no longer main-- parties like the Social Democrats (SDU), on 9%, and governing Christian Democrats (CDU), on 17%, refuse to work with it. However, the far left populist BSW party, which won 5%, might do so.

To say this upends post-war German electoral politics is an understatement: it would be the first time the "far right" would be in power since 1945. Moreover, the two extremes of the German political spectrum would be the majority, not “the sensible center combines to win – because markets.” Indeed, a ‘horseshoe effect’ of opposed anti-establishment parties could work together to dynamite that system. After all, the AfD and BSW have the same views on immigration and deportations; on Russia and Ukraine (pro-Russia, anti-the Ukraine war and Germany’s role in it – and in NATO); and on energy (favoring a return to Russian gas as soon as possible).

Yes, ‘This is only Saxony’, and the AfD is polling at 28% in west Germany vs. the 44% it just got in the east. However, add leftists Die Linke and BSW 17% and it’s again close to half of voters. That’s as VW fires another 50,000 workers, deindustrialisation accelerates, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov just warned Germany is moving towards war with Russia, all of which might see further voting shifts. The “sensible center” doesn’t seem to have any answers to those huge problems regardless of whether one likes the AfD and BSW proposals. As such, could markets start considering a second German structural shift in the space of a few years? First, ‘Germany will never borrow’ became ‘Germany is borrowing hugely’; could ‘Germany is politically stable’ now become ‘Germany is politically unstable’? “Was gibt, Mr Market?”

That’s as French far-left presidential candidate Melenchon, who wants more public spending, declared: “The ECB holds an enormous amount of French state debt. I propose to all the states of the eurozone to cancel this debt held by the ECB.” He added, “We are all members of the euro system, so this is a debt we owe to ourselves. The media establishment has tried to manipulate this reasonable proposal. It took us a few days of explanation to untangle their lies. That is now done. From now on, a poll shows that the French who support this proposal to cancel the debt are more numerous than those who oppose it.“ That’s on top of, “We will establish a public banking hub. Our country has a lot of money.” Melenchon also wants "cooperative non-alignment" with Russia and blames US and NATO expansionism for provoking the crisis; he strongly opposes a new Cold War with China or any potential conflicts over Taiwan and sees closer ties with Beijing as part of a multipolar world order that undermines US hegemony.

However, nationalist Le Pen is the election favorite. She promises a "golden rule" to keep fiscal deficits under 3% of GDP and a cost-cutting package - which includes €125bn from migration, “useless” public agencies, and France’s EU contribution; plus, she wants to roll back Macron’s pension reform so workers can retire at 62. Le Pen also favors a strategic rapprochement with Moscow, once the war is over, opposes economic sanctions, and aims to limit aid to Kyiv.

In Italy, PM Meloni, now the longest serving post-WW2 leader, is heading into a 2027 election with a political rival to her far right; she is moving in that direction as a result. As Le Monde puts it, ‘Meloni's migration policy becomes lever for Italy's illiberal shift: Questioning the work of magistrates, bypassing parliament, putting the press under surveillance, marginalizing human rights: The Italian prime minister's ongoing escalation is undermining the rule of law.’

Spain has its own problems, and a recent immigration incident in Ceuta, as PM Sanchez is moving to the progressive left geopolitically, including towards China, leading to clashes with not just Trump but Meloni. There, the right-wing PP is polling at around 33%, the far-right Vox at around 18%, and the further right SALF, promising an “iron fist” on around 6%.  

Germany, France, Italy, and Spain account for 60% of Eurozone GDP. Yes, there is a technocratic rules-based EU superstructure, and the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument that allows it to buy Eurozone government bonds during periods of market stress or disorderly conditions not justified by country-specific fundamentals. (Just imagine if the Fed under Warsh were to consider putting that kind of monetary policy in place in the current market environment: quelle horreur!) However, how comfortably could that trundle on if we were to see conflated trouble in the Big Four Eurozone political economies? But this isn’t a ‘European’ issue any more than it is a ‘US’ one.

In Australia, the One Nation Party is now supported by a quarter of all voters and breathing down the neck of the center-right Liberal-National coalition, pulling the center right to the right as center-left Labor is pulled to the left. The same trend is clear in the UK with Reform vs the Conservatives (and Restore vs Reform, as we just saw the first proto ‘Blackshirts’ rally in the UK since the 1930s) and Labour vs the Greens and sectarian parties. Canadian PM Carney meanwhile seems to have found “sensible centrist” political support by being the ‘anti-Trump’… while embracing his policies like defence spending, fiscal deficits, tariffs, and national security subsidies.

As with geopolitics, markets generally only react to ‘political issues’ once they are in their faces. However, the number of such political backdrops should be seen as a whole, not separate pieces: first, because this populism is a logical and predictable byproduct of the current system; second, because Trump aside, populists are non-linearly disruptive for “because markets” in direct correlation with their numbers in power.

One populist leader may be cowed by a “coalition of the willing centrists” around them; two may not be as much; three are less likely to be again, etc. And we are looking at a possible near future where populists are no longer the angry minority but the majority. Happy Monday, and welcome to the world that now exists.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 14:00

Six Nuclear Bills Clear House Committee Without A Single 'No' Vote

The House Energy and Commerce Committee advanced six nuclear-industry bills on September 2nd, all without a single opposing vote. The measures target fuel recycling, uranium enrichment, licensing delays, regulatory staffing and transparency.

The vote to get it to the House floor is another testament to the lack of divide among the Republicans and Democrats regarding the need for more nuclear energy in America.

As we highlighted in a report from Goldman, the Western nuclear revival is gathering momentum across microreactors, small modular reactors and larger designs. But turning announcements into operating infrastructure requires fuel supplies and a regulatory system capable of processing the projects.

The six bills pushed to the House attempt to address at least some of the standing issues:

• H.R. 3978, Nuclear REFUEL Act, 44 yes - 0 no. This would simplify licensing for facilities that recycle spent nuclear fuel without isolating plutonium. Qualifying projects could use the single-step fuel-cycle licensing route instead of separate construction and operating approvals. The potential payoff is a clearer path to reusing nuclear material and developing domestic recycling capacity.
• H.R. 9612, American Enrichment Deployment Act, 43-0. Enrichment plants would receive treatment closer to other fuel-cycle facilities, including permission to begin construction before licensing under the same conditions. Developers would build at their own risk, but NRC approval would still be required. The aim is to bring additional domestic enrichment capacity online sooner.
• H.R. 5549, Efficient Nuclear Licensing Hearings Act, 44-0. This removes mandatory hearings when nobody with an affected interest requests one and requires informal procedures for covered hearings. It’s an opportunity to trim legal costs and delays without making public participation disappear.
• H.R. 9613, Nuclear Advisory Committee Reform Act, 41-0. This refocuses the NRC’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards on significant, novel reactor-design safety issues and changes membership and term rules. The idea is to reduce repetitive reviews.
• H.R. 9614, NRC Staff Pay Alignment Act, 42-0. The NRC chairman could pay career senior executives up to 110% of the applicable Senior Executive Service pay ceiling. It gives the regulator more room to retain experienced leadership as the industry competes for expertise.
• H.R. 9084, Department of Energy Nuclear Transparency Act, 41-0. DOE would have to announce covered nuclear-facility authorizations and safety-rule changes, and publish safety analyses, within 72 hours. It's unclear what the real benefit of this one is besides maybe providing more opportunity for nuclear skeptics to complain about faster regulatory actions. More transparency can be a good thing, but the benefit is less clear in this situation.

In July, ranking Democrat Frank Pallone, and even AOC, singled out the advisory-committee overhaul over concerns about weakening safety oversight. Pallone also sought implementation changes to the enrichment bill, while crediting the transparency measure with helping keep bipartisan nuclear legislation moving.

Surprisingly, those concerns never translated into recorded opposition at the full committee.

All this goes to highlight the dramatic change in opinion for the expansion of nuclear energy generating capacity in the US in recent years... 

Gallup found in 2025 that 61% of Americans favor nuclear energy, only a single point away from the highest level recorded in the poll's three-decade history. Gallop then ran a similar poll in April 2026, asking whether the U.S. should put more emphasis on various energy sources…

Nuclear was the only one of the six energy sources Gallup tested whose "more emphasis" support increased since 2021.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 13:30

DOJ Announces Deal With Mount Sinai Ending Pediatric Sex-Change Interventions

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department announced Friday an agreement with Mount Sinai Health System that ends the New York hospital network's provision of puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgical procedures to minors.

Mount Sinai West in New York City on Jan. 20, 2026. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Mount Sinai, one of the largest healthcare providers in New York, will stop those interventions, pay a monetary penalty, and dedicate $2 million to free medical care for people living with harmful consequences of treatments they received as children, the department said.

The deal is another product of a nationwide investigation into hospitals that performed gender transition procedures on children. Similar agreements have already been reached with Texas Children's Hospital, the Cleveland Clinic Foundation and Connecticut Children's Hospital.

Officials said Mount Sinai stayed cooperative, proactive, and solution-driven throughout the inquiry, they said, noting the multimillion-dollar commitment to detransition care.

"The Department of Justice is committed to holding accountable medical providers that violate federal law and endanger children through so-called gender-affirming care," Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a statement. "This agreement puts an end to these practices at Mount Sinai and provides meaningful relief for individuals who have already suffered harm."

Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate of the Civil Division said the hospital follows a growing trend.

"A growing number of hospitals, like Mount Sinai, have recognized the medical scandal of sex-rejecting procedures," Shumate said. "While we are grateful when we secure resolutions to end this discredited practice and protect children, we must not and will not rest in our pursuit of justice for the victims it has left behind."

U.S. Attorney Ryan Raybould for the Northern District of Texas, whose office worked the case, said his district "remains committed to holding medical providers, hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies accountable for unsound medical practices and procedures that put our kids at risk."

He called the settlement "a step in the right direction."

The claims resolved in the agreement are allegations only. There has been no determination of liability, and Mount Sinai has denied all allegations.

The investigation stems from a January 2025 presidential order titled "Protecting Children from Chemical and Surgical Mutilation," which directed the Justice Department to prioritize enforcement involving alleged violations of federal law. In April 2025, then-Attorney General Pam Bondi issued a memorandum on "Preventing the Mutilation of American Children."

The Civil Division then opened a nationwide probe of the child gender-transition industry. Investigators have examined possible violations of the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, the False Claims Act, and other federal healthcare laws. Issues include alleged fraudulent billing, such as the use of false diagnosis codes to obtain payment from federal programs and private insurers.

Those schemes, according to the department, compound harm to children by shifting the cost of potentially unlawful interventions onto taxpayers and insurers.

The department's earlier hospital settlements followed a similar pattern, emphasizing stopping the procedures on minors, imposing penalties, and funding restorative care. Texas Children's Hospital, under a May 2026 deal, agreed to open what officials described as the nation's first detransition clinic. Cleveland Clinic's June agreement barred puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries for minors for 20 years and required restorative care. Connecticut Children's August deal included a $500,000 commitment for patients living with harmful consequences of prior treatment.

An August HHS report titled "Wolves in White Coats" alleged that practitioners of pediatric gender treatments may have committed tens of millions of dollars in insurance fraud over a decade.

The report estimated hospitals billed nearly $120 million for such treatments since 2019 and said the work became "a strategic area of growth" in revenue. Vice President JD Vance called on the Justice Department to investigate the hospitals after the report's release.

In line with Trump administration policy, the Civil Division said it will continue to pursue cases nationwide, put an end to unlawful conduct, recover funds obtained through fraud, and hold accountable those who profit by violating federal law at children's expense.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 13:05

Iran To Draw New "Restricted Zone" In Hormuz As Saudi Aramco Facility Hit Again, Oil Climbs

At a moment US officials have been boasting of more and more oil tankers making it through the Strait of Hormuz under US naval protection and support, Iran has previewed a new 'restricted zone' in the Gulf, which it says will be announced in the coming days.

The announcement is expected to include maps of the new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, likely to begin from where the US blockade of Iran starts and extending into areas of the Gulf, according to Iran's Supreme National Security Council on Sunday.

Jizan Industrial Gas Complex

"The maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days," national security council official Mohsen Rezaei said.

"We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they (the Americans) stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran," he added. Per a Monday Bloomberg note:

Oil advances, with Brent futures trading above $97 a barrel, after US attacks on Iranian tankers and Tehran’s threat of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas prices surge. Meanwhile, Ukraine is resigned to Russia’s war dragging on through another tough winter.

Also, in a latest Monday warning, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has put US energy firms on notice, saying they could be targeted if Iranian tankers continue to be attacked (following precisely a rare US airstrike on an Iranian civilian tanker).

According to Ghalibaf's words on X: "It's simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets and you get struck. We’ve already proven it. Ask the bases that are no longer viable."

Brent reaches high since July 23

The top Iranian negotiator also said in a weekend speech, "The Americans must have understood that the era of proportionate responses has come to an end," adding that "any aggression against Iran's interests and security will receive a faster, more intense and more painful response.”

Across the Gulf, the UAE is voicing its frustration, vowing to establish alternative energy routes:

The United Arab ​Emirates is building alternative routes for its energy exports and trade to ensure they are not "held ‌hostage" by the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said on Monday.

"Our energy exports will not be held hostage, nor will our trade and economic activity," Gargash ​said before the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi.

Meanwhile, not helping rising energy prices is fresh reporting out of Saudi Arabia of key oil facilities hit, likely by more Houthi attacks from neighboring Yemen.

"Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in the Saudi Arabian city of Jizan have been attacked only a month after a separate strike temporarily knocked out some production at its refinery," Financial Times reports. "The company’s oil infrastructure was hit on Monday and the damage was being assessed, said two people with knowledge of the matter."

Tehran continues to see itself as having the ability to leverage economic blowback against Washington...

It’s simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets and you get struck. We’ve already proven it. Ask the bases that are no longer viable. https://t.co/XiHAf6KzqV pic.twitter.com/0wBf40K4D3

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) September 7, 2026

Jizan provides a convenient targeting opportunity for the Houthis given its closeness to the Yemeni border as a significant Saudi industrial city. The Iran-linked group has not immediately claimed responsibility for any fresh attacks on the kingdom, however.

Bloomberg reports Monday, "The latest attack didn’t cause major damage, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential matters. The 400,000 barrel-a-day refinery remains shut following a strike in July, one of them said."

The Houthis have sought to impose a blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports since July - and this has been coupled by sporadic major drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil sites. Ansar Allah is no doubt working in tandem with Tehran keep up the pressure on global energy markets.

Weekend & Overnight Developments

• US launched strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday, which destroyed one, in retaliation for the IRGC targeting US Navy warships with ballistic missiles.
• Iran’s navy said it targeted three oil tankers that were travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz and three additional US vessels in other areas.
• US President Trump said on Friday that they do intermittent strikes in Iran and that the Iran issue is a military conflict, while he added that they may hit Pickaxe Mountain very soon. Trump warned that if anything goes badly with Iran, they may hit them hard and have essentially taken over Iran. He also claimed there have been no shootings for days and there are no mines in the Strait.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said a nuclear deal with Iran may not be achievable in the near term and military action may be needed to address threats from Iran, according to ABC News.
• Iran's top security official Rezaei said Iran and Oman will sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in the coming days and that Iran will commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the US neither threatens Iran nor attacks it. Rezaei also stated that they will announce in the coming days and weeks a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz that starts from the US Navy's blockade line and extends through the strait into the Persian Gulf, and any ship identified entering this zone with the intention of passing through the strait will be added to the sanctions list. Furthermore, he said that Iran tested an Iranian anti-ship missile above a US warship for the first time and claimed the missile created 'hell' for the Americans 'and they fled'.
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s response to any attack against its interests and security would be faster, heavier and more painful.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry said the US-led war is disrupting global oil trade and costs, while it added that US aggression is causing instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Israeli military announced that it struck southern Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drones towards Israeli soldiers in the security zone. Israel's army also issued an evacuation warning to residents of a building in Deir Zahrani, southern Lebanon.
• Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said PM Netanyahu ordered the evacuation of certain settlement outposts in the West Bank. It was separately reported that Israel conducted an airstrike on eastern Gaza City with four missiles.
• Joint statement by UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt Foreign Ministers strongly condemned statements made by Israel's National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Defence Minister Katz regarding the displacement of Palestinians.
• Yemeni armed forces said they thwarted an attempt by Houthis to infiltrate the Dabab front, while they announced that warplanes struck Houthi positions in Balhaf and south of Hodeidah.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 13:00

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: All Eyes On Friday's CPI

After Friday's blowout jobs report, attention now turns to inflation. Economists expect headline CPI (Friday) to rise by +0.4% month-on-month in August, up from +0.07% previously, while core CPI is expected to print at +0.2% month-on-month, broadly unchanged from July’s +0.22%. Higher gasoline prices are likely to support the headline reading, while core inflation should continue to benefit from gradually moderating shelter costs (which however are turning higher again per Case-Shiller). If realized, the forecasts would leave headline CPI broadly unchanged at 3.4% on a year-on-year basis while core inflation edges 10 bps lower to 2.4%.

Ahead of that, the PPI (Thursday) will provide another important input into the inflation outlook. Economists expect PPI to imply a +0.3% month-on-month increase in core PCE, up from +0.2% in July, leaving the annual rate rising to 4.6% from 4.2%. The remainder of the US calendar is relatively quiet, with markets closed today for the Labor Day holiday. However, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (Friday) will also attract attention. Economists expect sentiment to decline to 51.0 from 51.7 in August, while the survey’s inflation expectations measures will be closely watched.

In Europe, the ECB policy decision (Thursday) will be the key event. DB's European economists expect a 25bp rate increase, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, and investors will focus on any guidance regarding the likelihood of further tightening. DB economists also expect an additional hike in December. They have also upgraded their 2026 and 2027 economic forecasts by 0.3pp and 0.1pp to 0.8% and 1.2% respectively. Economic data will also be closely monitored, including German industrial production (today) and trade data (tomorrow), French industrial production (Wednesday), and UK monthly GDP (Friday). Inflation releases from Sweden (today) and Norway and Denmark (Thursday) will provide additional insight into regional price pressures.

In Asia, China will dominate the calendar. DB economists expect the August trade balance (tomorrow) to show stronger activity, with exports and imports forecast to grow a significant 27% and 29% year-on-year respectively. Inflation data (Wednesday) are expected to show CPI accelerating to 0.8% year-on-year from 0.5%, while PPI inflation moderates to 3.2% from 3.5%. In Japan, key releases include labor cash earnings and the Economy Watchers survey (tomorrow), followed by PPI data (Friday).  A reminder that the BoJ has an important meeting on Friday week, less than 36 hours after the FOMC conclusion.

Beyond the economic calendar, the US Treasury’s expanded long-end buyback programme begins on Wednesday, increasing support operations in longer-dated maturities. In politics, the US Republican Party will hold its first midterm national convention in Dallas on Wednesday and Thursday, while Canada’s counter-tariffs on US imports come into force tomorrow. Corporate earnings highlights include Inditex (Wednesday) and Adobe and Oracle (Thursday). Oracle will be the key given all the focus on AI capex.  

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 7

• Data: China August foreign reserves, Japan July leading index, coincident index, Germany July industrial production, Sweden August CPI
• Other: US Labor Day holiday (markets closed)

Tuesday September 8

• Data: US August NFIB small business optimism, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, July consumer credit, China August trade balance, Japan July labor cash earnings, BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, August bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, Germany July trade balance, France July current account balance, trade balance
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
• Other: Canada’s counter-tariffs on US imports enter into force

Wednesday September 9

• Data: China August CPI, PPI, Japan August M2, M3, machine tool orders, France July industrial production
• Earnings: Inditex
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)
• Other: US Treasury’s expanded long-end buybacks take effect, the Republican Party holds its first midterm national convention in Dallas (through Thursday)

Thursday September 10

• Data: US August PPI, existing home sales, July wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK August RICS house price balance, Italy July industrial production, Norway August CPI, Denmark August CPI, Sweden July GDP indicator
• Central banks: ECB’s decision, BoJ’s Masu speaks
• Earnings: Adobe, Oracle
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday September 11

• Data: US August CPI, federal budget balance, September University of Michigan survey, Q2 household net worth, UK July monthly GDP, Japan August PPI, Germany July current account balance, Italy Q2 unemployment rate
• Central banks: ECB’s Lane speaks

Finally, focusing just on the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the CPI report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Monday, September 7 

• US Labor Day holiday observed. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be closed, SIFMA recommends bond markets remain closed.

Tuesday, September 8 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Wednesday, September 9 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Thursday, September 10 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last flat); PPI ex-food and energy, August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%): As usual, we will watch the medical services and domestic passenger airfares components of this month’s PPI report for their read-through to PCE. Recent methodological changes mean that the portfolio management PPI is no longer an input into the PCE calculation, and that PPIs for data processing services and videogame software will be used to construct the computer software and accessories component of PCE. On net, we expect these changes to lead to a downward revision of 0.2pp to YoY PCE.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 5 (GS 205k, consensus 205k, last 206k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 29 (consensus 1,780k, last 1,779k)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, August (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.6%, last -1.7%)
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, July final (consensus +1.3%, last +1.3%)

Friday, September 11 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), August (GS +0.39%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%); Core CPI (MoM), August (GS +0.23%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), August (GS +3.40%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.4%); Core CPI (YoY), August (GS +2.40%, consensus +2.4%, last +2.5%): We estimate a 0.23% increase in August core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would lower the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.4% on a rounded basis. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.2% increase in new car prices, and a 0.2% decline in the car insurance category. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.22% increase in the OER category and a 0.23% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect firmer travel services inflation (airfares: +4%, lodging away from home: +0.3%), reflecting the signals from alternative price data. We estimate a 0.39% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food (+0.25%) and energy (+2.3%) prices—which would raise the year-over-year rate to +3.40% from +3.36%. Our forecast is consistent with a similar 0.22% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in August.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September preliminary (GS 52.0, consensus 51.0, last 51.7); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, September preliminary (GS 3.3%, last 3.3%): We expect University of Michigan’s 5-10-year inflation expectations measure to remain unchanged at 3.3%, above its 1995-2019 average of 2.8%. We noted recently that these elevated levels in part reflect the increased politicization of survey responses and methodological changes rather than signaling an immediate risk of unanchoring.

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 12:55

Japan Sold Almost $90 Billion In Treasuries To Fund Record Yen Intervention

At the end of July, the only question following Japan's record $90 billion yen intervention (which worked for about two weeks before the effects faded and Bessent had to engage in more market intervention), was whether and how much Treasuries Japan had sold as part of the intervention. 

The BOJ spent a record $90BN to briefly push the yen higher.

Another catastrophic intervention by the central bank which is 100bps behind in rate hikes (chart Goldman) pic.twitter.com/xOGszXSgF7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 31, 2026

We now now the answers: i) yes and ii) a lot. 

According to Finance Ministry reserve data released Monday, Tokyo’s holdings of foreign securities fell by $87.8 billion at the end of August from a month earlier. That decline was close to the scale of Japan’s recent intervention to support the yen. Analysts suggested Japan likely sold Treasuries at the short end of the maturity spectrum, Bloomberg reported.

Prior to the latest reserve release, the ministry had already confirmed that authorities spent the equivalent of ¥15.4 trillion ($98.6 billion) in the month through Aug. 26, with part of the operation conducted jointly with the US. And as we reported previously, te monthly intervention was also the largest on record.

A ministry briefer said intervention was a factor behind the fall in foreign reserves, but did not confirm that Treasuries were offloaded. Another intervention financed through sales of US Treasuries could potentially further anger Bessent as it would show that Tokyo is still willing to go down that route even as US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have become increasingly focused on Treasury-market stability, particularly ahead of the midterm elections.

“Japan may have used both foreign securities and deposits, but it most likely sold US Treasuries,” said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute.

As we noted then, the US participated in Japan’s intervention campaign at the end of July by stepping into the market on July 31 in the first coordinated move between the nations to support the yen since 1998. That, according to Bloomberg, shows the two sides are still likely on the same page for now.

“Bessent has also repeatedly said that the yen has weakened too much, so the US probably shares that view and that’s why it’s cooperating with Japan,” Takeda said.Still, long-term US yields are still firmly placed on Bessent’s radar. He recently announced that the government would double the size of its buybacks of longer-dated debt for two months through Nov. 4, a move likely aimed at keeping a lid on longer-term yields.

The data do not provide a detailed breakdown of securities holdings or maturities, though market participants estimate that roughly 70% of Japan’s foreign reserves are invested in US Treasuries.

“Japan still has room to intervene given the amount of securities it holds, but given comments from Bessent, selling US Treasuries to fund further intervention could end up attracting pressure from the US,” said Akira Nishimura, economist at the Japan Research Institute. “That would make it difficult for the ministry and the BOJ to act going forward.”

Analysts suggested that Treasury sales were likely focused at the short end of maturities, limiting their impact on long-term yields and the potential for irritation in Washington.

“Japan’s Treasury holdings would span the curve, but the first port of call to fund intervention would be to liquidate assets with maturities of 5 years and under,” said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, flagging their greater liquidity. “It’s unlikely the MOF would have offloaded longer dated securities - maturities of 10 years or more - given the potential for significant pressure on long-end yields.”

Not only are shorter-term Treasuries the easiest to sell, foreign reserve managers tend to invest at the short end anyway as that is their “preferred habitat,” said Macquarie strategist Gareth Berry, adding that  “conveniently, selling short-dated Treasuries is probably something the US side would be less concerned about, and better able to live with, as US attention seems mainly focused on the long-end."

Markets have remained jittery since last week as investors recalibrate their rate expectations and positions. The yen strengthened from around 160.39 per dollar on Wednesday to as much as 155.30 on Friday. The currency further strengthened to around 154.50 on Monday amid ongoing speculation Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund may boost allocations toward domestic assets.

That suggests no further intervention for the time being, especially with the BOJ expected to do the heavy lifting from now on. Following Bessent’s call for higher Japanese interest rates in North Carolina last week and recent signaling from BOJ officials, markets are now fully pricing in a BOJ rate hike in September. Some investors are even starting to consider whether the central bank could accelerate the pace of tightening after a series of hawkish signals, a stance that would offer further support for the yen.

Finally, while Monday’s report showed Japan’s foreign currency reserves fell $94.6 billion to $995 billion at the end of August, the remaining amount still shows the substantial resources available to authorities should they need to intervene again. Foreign currency deposits, another potential source of intervention funds, fell $6.9 billion.

In addition to selling securities and drawing on foreign deposits, Japan can also tap the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Repo Facility in future interventions, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama suggested after the US-Japan joint intervention. The facility introduced during the pandemic enables Japan to access up to $60 billion per day without selling Treasuries, limiting any impact on US yields and expanding the potential scope for intervention. Still, there is no record of Japan using FIMA.

“The lack of any precedent would be a significant hurdle to actually using it,” Nishimura said. “So I view the comments on FIMA as more of a signal that Japan still has ample resources available to fund intervention, rather than actually using the facility.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 12:15

The Copper Chart Causing Alarm

Copper futures in London continue to move higher, once again approaching record highs, as US buyers purchase record volumes from the seaborne market, with imports reaching 200,000 tons in July. A phased US tariff would keep that buying in motion for longer, further tightening the ex-US market and limiting any near-term price correction in London trading.

Rafael Barcellos, head of Latin American Metals & Mining and Pulp & Paper Equity Research at Bradesco BBI, wrote in a note last week that global mine supply is deteriorating. He warned that severe weather in Chile has forced Antofagasta and Lundin to cut their production guidance, further tightening an already stressed physical market.

Barcellos explained:

Copper prices extended their July rally into August, running above US$14,000/t throughout the month and reaching ~US$14,450/t as of August 30. Momentum has been driven by near-term physical tightness, as refined copper continues to flow into the US ahead of a potential import tariff.

While market consensus frames the policy as a binary outcome for copper — a tariff being supportive for prices and a no-tariff decision being negative — we would argue instead that both outcomes are ultimately bearish, and that it is the uncertainty around the tariffs that is intensifying the current upward momentum. Should tariffs not be implemented, the massive inventories accumulated in the US would be redirected elsewhere, increasing global supply availability. However, should the US instead move ahead, US buyers would likely reduce near-term procurement given the elevated stocks already built ahead of the decision, ultimately reducing regional demand and easing tightness elsewhere. That said, a phased tariff (e.g. an incremental rate over the coming years) — which we do see as the most likely scenario — should help keep US buyers in the seaborne market for longer, smoothing rather than removing the demand adjustment and limiting the near-term downside to prices.

On the supply side, the concentrate market remains tight, further exacerbated by extreme weather in Chile, which led Antofagasta and Lundin Mining to lower their 2026 production guidance ranges to 625-655kt (from 650-700kt) and 300-325kt (from 310-335kt), respectively, reflecting disruptions at Los Pelambres and Caserones. On the refined side, amid persistent concentrate tightness, Chinese smelters have increasingly turned to secondary feedstock, with copper scrap imports rising +15% YoY in July (+9% YTD)

Barcellos' view of the copper market was echoed in a Bloomberg report on Friday, which cited International Copper Study Group data showing that global mine production fell 1.1% during the first half of 2026, with output at industry giants Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan declining by double digits.

Separately, Morgan Stanley, which began the year forecasting supply growth, now expects mine production to finish roughly unchanged or slightly lower, potentially marking the first annual decline since 2017.

Producers representing roughly two-thirds of global supply recorded a 3.5% decline during the first half and a 4.1% drop in the second quarter, according to Jefferies data cited by SP Angel. Chile, the world's largest copper-producing country, suffered its weakest second quarter in nearly two decades and now expects annual output to fall 2.6%.

Related:

• Jefferies: "Turns Out, We Weren't Bullish Enough On Copper"
• HSBC Warns Of Commodity "Super-Squeeze" As Goldman Hikes Copper Forecasts

Copper has now advanced for 10 consecutive weeks on the London Metal Exchange.

To sum up, all of this only suggests a structurally bullish period for copper. Demand from electric vehicles, power-grid expansion and artificial-intelligence data centers is accelerating just as physical-market tightness constrains supply and pushes London prices higher.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 11:35