From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Increased Refinance Activity Drives Mortgage Prepayments to 3.5-Year High

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... oday released the October 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends.

“Softening mortgage rates expanded the pool of refinance candidates in October, pushing prepayments to their highest level in three and a half years,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “This trend was largely driven by people who purchased homes at elevated rates in recent years seizing the opportunity to lower their monthly payments.”

“Overall mortgage health remains solid, with continued improvement in delinquency rates across all stages,” continued Walden. “While foreclosure activity has ticked up, levels remain historically low. This uptick is driven by a rise in FHA foreclosures along with the resumption in VA foreclosures following last year's moratorium."

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• Delinquencies improved: The national delinquency rate fell by 7 basis points (bps) in October to 3.34%. This is down 11 bps from the same time last year and 53 bps below the October 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark.

• Broad strength in delinquency rates: Performance improved across the board, with both early-stage (30-day) and late-stage (90+ day) delinquencies declining during the month.

• Prepayments reached a multi-year high: The single month mortality (SMM) rate, which tracks prepayments, rose by 27 bps in October to 1.01%. This marks the highest level in 3.5 years and an increase of 16 bps from last year when interest rates were at similar levels.

• Foreclosure activity trending upward: Although October foreclosure starts slowed by 9.8% from the prior month, the overall trend continues to rise. Foreclosure inventory is up by 37,000 (+19%) year over year, and foreclosure sales have increased by 1,900 (+32%) from last year's levels.

• Government loans driving foreclosure growth: While foreclosure activity remains muted by historical standards, the number of loans in active foreclosure hit its highest level since early 2023, driven by a notable rise in FHA foreclosures (+50% YoY) along with a resumption of VA activity following last year's moratorium.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

It’s that time of year again when families gather to feast on bountiful harvests and to give thanks for all of our blessings.

This year, skip the “Vibes” and instead focus on market data. Don’t lose sight of nuances and shades of grey; they don’t make for great memes, but they do lead to a better understanding of what’s going on.

Here are ten nuanced, slightly contrarian ideas for you to chew over:

1. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a once-in-a-generation transformational technology boom that will drive both the economy and the stock market higher for years to come.

Too many people fail to recognize how challenging it is to identify these generational market turning points in real time.

My favorite takes on AI have come from Derek Thompson and Timothy Lee, who looked into the 12 main arguments Pro & Con, and Benjamin Riley, who aims to “help people understand human cognition and artificial intelligence.”

2. INFLATION: Everything costs more this year — except for the Turkey.

The largest fiscal stimulus since World War 2 led to the largest inflation surge since the 1970s. The rate of price increases rose by 9% (peaking June 2022) before falling back to 3% nearly as quickly. There were numerous causes of inflation, but the top of the list was the pandemic supply issues and the huge fiscal stimulus.

People confuse the rate of price change with prices. We had high inflation; today, we have low(ish) inflation, but we still retain higher prices. Everything is much more expensive today, even with inflation way down. Low Inflation and High Prices are not mutually exclusive.

CPI Inflation is in the 2-3% range today, but it is ticking upwards, creating difficulties for those on the FOMC who want to cut rates.

3. SUPPLY & DEMAND: We may not have structural inflation as we did in the 1970s, but we do have a structural imbalance in supply and demand of many critical goods and services.

A few significant examples:

Single-family homes Used cars Skilled labor Rare Earth minerals Renewable energy

Until supply catches up with demand, those prices will remain high. And that is before we get to health care and education costs.

4. ENERGY: The inflation of the 1970s was structural, caused in large part by the Arab Oil Embargo. In contrast, the United States is a net energy exporter today. In the 1970s, energy accounted for about 10% of the average household budget; the Chicago Fed found it peaked at nearly 14% in the early 1980s.

Household energy costs are about half of those levels today (5-6%), even as energy consumption has increased significantly. Every power-hungry device, from automobiles to HVAC systems to appliances, is now many times more efficient than in the past.

The wildcard is increased demand from power-hungry data centers…

5. CRYPTO CRASH: Given the embrace of crypto by the President (and POTUS’s family), much of Bitcoin 2025 gains can be attributed to this administration’s policies. We should not be surprised by the correlation between the President’s political fortunes / approval ratings, and the price of Bitcoin.

The President has had a terrible month; from the election thumping to the fallout with MTG to losing multiple legal cases (Tariffs at SCOTUS, Comey / James case dismissals), it’s no surprise that Bitcoin has suffered a 30% crash this month as well:

6. TARIFFS: Are fascinating: They cause temporary inflation spikes and permanent higher prices. There is no getting around it – any additional tax on imported goods is a source of increased prices. And as we have seen before, even domestic producers will raise prices (Greedflation) if they believe consumers won’t balk.

The good news: If the Supreme Court arguments were anything to go on, many of the Tariffs are likely to get struck down.

7. RATE CUTS: You can make a solid case either way – inflation remains stubborn at (or over) 3%, but there are signs of labor market softness, slowing consumer sales, and mediocre sentiment.

Expectations had fallen to a ~20% chance of a rate cut – until yesterday’s poor data. Now, we are back to an 80% chance of a December cut. Beyond that is anyone’s guess…

8. BUBBLES: By definition, it takes a crowd to create a bubble. Can you recall the public, the media, or even the Fed identifying a bubble on a timely basis? (Me neither).

Asked differently, can investors rationally believe that prices are not entirely irrational? If your answer is yes, then it’s likely not a bubble.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the AI bubble debate is Alphabet (GOOGL) passing Nvidia (NVDA) YTD returns:

: 

9. RECESSION: People hate inflation, but the alternative was a deep and long-lasting pandemic recession. We avoided a 10-12% unemployment rate, but the cost was 9% inflation.

Consider the alternative, had both the Trump and Biden admins not cranked up the fiscal spend, people would have been furious at the failure to do anything1. It’s a Lose/Lose; whatever choice got made, half the population would have been furious.

As angry as people are over high prices, they would have been even angrier at a do-nothing government letting an ugly recession take hold.

10. VALUATIONS: The Mag 7 remains pricey, even as Nvidia slides 13% off its highs. Its expensive, but it also generates $57 billion in quarterly revenues! Some sectors are extremely overpriced, others are more reasonable. The S&P 493 — S&P 500 minus the Magnificent 7 — is at 20.7 P/E. Pricey, but not ridiculous.

Nuance is your friend.

Safe travels!

 

Previously:
The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Make Thanksgiving Great Again! (November 23, 2023)

Revisiting Greedflation (November 16, 2023)

Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022)

Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

How to Talk to a Fox News Viewer (November 22, 2018)

How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

 

 

The post 10 Datapoints for Thanksgiving appeared first on The Big Picture.

Beige Book - November 2025

Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, according to most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, though two Districts noted a modest decline and one reported modest growth. Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient. Some retailers noted a negative impact on consumer purchases from the government shutdown, and auto dealers saw declines in EV sales following the expiration of the federal tax credit. Reports of travel and tourism activity reflected little change in recent weeks, with some contacts noting cautious discretionary spending among consumers. Manufacturing activity increased somewhat, according to most Districts, though tariffs and tariff uncertainty remained a headwind. Revenues in the nonfinancial services sector were mostly flat to down, and reports of loan demand were mixed. Some Districts reported declines in residential construction, while others said it was unchanged, and home sales activity varied. A few Districts noted ongoing recovery in the office real estate market. Conditions in the agriculture and energy sectors were largely stable, though some contacts cited challenges from the low-price environment for oil and for some crops. Community organizations saw increased demand for food assistance, due in part to disruptions in SNAP benefits during the government shutdown. Outlooks were largely unchanged overall. Some contacts noted an increased risk of slower activity in coming months, while some optimism was noted among manufacturers.

Labor Markets

Employment declined slightly over the current period with around half of Districts noting weaker labor demand. Despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more Districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition than through layoffs. In addition, several employers adjusted hours worked to accommodate higher or lower than expected business volume instead of adjusting the number of employees. A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring. Across most Districts, employers had an easier time finding workers, but there were still pockets of difficulty related to certain skilled positions and fewer immigrant workers. Wages generally grew at a modest pace; however, some sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and health care experienced more moderate wage pressure because of a tighter labor supply. Furthermore, rising health insurance premiums continue to put upward pressure on labor costs.

Prices

Prices rose moderately during the reporting period. Input cost pressures were widespread in manufacturing and retail, largely reflecting tariff-induced increases. Some Districts noted rising costs for insurance, utilities, technology, and health care. The extent of passthrough of higher input costs to customers varied, and depended upon demand, competitive pressures, price sensitivity of consumers, and pushback from clients. There were multiple reports of margin compression or firms facing financial strain stemming from tariffs. Prices declined for certain materials, which firms attributed to sluggish demand, deferred tariff implementation, or reduced tariff rates. Looking ahead, contacts largely anticipate upward cost pressures to persist but plans to raise prices in the near term were mixed.
emphasis added

The post Trump RX: The Merger of Pharma Corruption and Trump Crazy appeared first on CEPR.

WTI Steady Near One-Month Lows Amid Peace Deal Talk, Record Crude Production

Oil prices are steady this morning near one month lows, after a tempestuous few days swinging around Russia peace deal headlines.

US President Donald Trump said “there are only a few remaining points of disagreement,” as he sent negotiators to more meetings, while the Ukrainian leader’s chief of staff said talks in Geneva had laid a “good foundation.”

Goldman said a peace deal may shave off about $5 a barrel from its base-case forecast of $56 next year.

“That would put Brent in 2026 in the low $50s,” analyst Daan Struyven told Bloomberg TV.

API reported a lackluster set of inventory data that calmed the market too...

API

• Crude -1.86mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +539k

• Distillates +753k

DOE

• Crude +2.774mm

• Cushing -68k

• Gasoline +2.513mm

• Distillates +1.147mm

US Crude stocks rose for the 3rd time in the last four weeks as did product inventories...

Source: Bloomberg

... while Cushing stocks continue to test 'tank bottoms'...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production continues to hover near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is hovering around $58, near one month lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Much of Russia’s oil and fuel is subject to heavy Western sanctions, with US restrictions on the two biggest producers kicking in last week. However, China, India and Turkey have been eager buyers of the discounted crude, so the impact on global prices from any lifting of curbs is hard to gauge.

“Minute adjustments between the US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU on proposed peace deals have been carefully digested by the market,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note.

“Any positive signs of collaboration or agreement have resulted in short-term sell-offs, while the dialing-back of enthusiasm has bolstered prices.”

Oil has retreated by more than a fifth since the middle of June as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies restored barrels, while producers outside of the group also pumped more. Worldwide crude supply is expected to exceed demand by a record 4 million barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency forecast this month.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 10:38

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.0% in October, down from up 1.1% YoY in September. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in October is a new cycle low. ...

As of October, 26 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-3.2%), Florida (-3.0%) and Texas (-2.5%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 200 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 7 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

Florida has the largest number of CBSAs on the list and Texas has the 2nd most.

There is much more in the article!

UBS: AI Mania Has More Fuel, Dubs GenAI The "Steam Engine Of The Mind"

As chatter about an AI-driven market bubble grows louder across Wall Street, with nearly half of BofA's Fund Manager Survey respondents calling the AI/data-center boom a bubble, UBS analysts are out with a note insisting there is plenty more bubble-blowing ahead. 

UBS analyst Andrew Garthwaite wrote that his bullish target for the MSCI AC World is 1,090 by end-2026 (+11%). But he noted that if GenAI delivers even half the productivity surge that late-1990s Tech was believed to produce, the S&P 500 could "easily" justify 7,000.

"We think Gen AI - 'the steam engine of the mind' - will increase productivity more than TMT did back in the late 1990s," Garthwaite told clients. 

He continued, "We also now have all 7 preconditions for a bubble that we are not yet in (historically, the P/E at a bubble peak has been 45x-72x on 12-month trailing earnings for 30-43% of global market cap versus Mag 6 today on 33x)." 

Garthwaite pointed to a previous analysis in the UBS Global Economics and Strategy Outlook that shows today's market performance patterns are similar to those in March 1998. 

"We also highlight that we believe we are far removed from any of the major catalysts that mark a bubble peak," he said. 

The analyst continued:

We think there is more justification for a bubble (which we are not yet in) to form than any of the many others we have seen owing to the uniquely quick adoption rate of Gen AI and the threat of monetisation of government debt (which would lead to a move from nominal to real assets). We see at least a 35% chance of a bubble fully forming, and that would justify 1090 MSCI AC World.

Other factors that are supportive for equities: i) The well-behaved nature of US wage growth (this allows the Fed to be proactive if necessary); ii) the historical performance of equities when we just miss a bear market (2 years later up 43% on average versus 34.6% so far) or when the Fed cut and there is no recession (up 17% a year later); and iii) it is too early to call an end to AI or Tech+ outperformance. The P/E of Tech+ relative to the market is close to its norm, earnings growth is expected to be better than the market until Q2 27, and earnings revisions are better than the market. There are many other supports such as hyperscalers being able to increase capex by c40% before capex is above 2025 operating cash flow, with ICT investment as a % of GDP still at average levels.

Near term, there is a risk of ongoing consolidation continuing. In early November, UBS Risk Appetite had been at a 5-year high and CTA positioning at an 8-year high. These indicators are normalising but are still above average; however, we would be surprised if the sell-off extended by another 5%.

Most important charts from Garthwaite's note:

Bubble preconditions are all in place ... the only missing ingredient is looser monetary policy.

The audience at the UBS European conference held on November 11 was asked: "Are we in a bubble?" 

Here's how they responded...

"In my opinion, the justification for a bubble to form is better than any of the many other bubbles that I have seen during the past 38 years doing global strategy," Garthwaite said. 

Far removed from the peak of a bubble in terms of valuation or catalysts...

ZeroHedge Pro subs can read the full UBS note in the usual place. Notably, the bank's position contrasts sharply with our earlier reporting:

• Fund Manager Survey: Most See AI As A Bubble, Are Done With Massive CapEx Spending, And Love EMs In 2026

• The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk"

• Oracle Is First AI Domino To Fall After Barclays Downgrades Its Debt To Sell

• AI Megacaps Throw Off New Warning Lights — Or New Fuel — Depending on Your Religion

Meanwhile...

• Hedge Funds Unleash Stock-Buying Frenzy, Cover Tech Shorts

In short, it depends on which institutional desk you read - there's clearly a gap in views about where we are in the bubble cycle. UBS believes the current phase could extend for a few years, a bullish scenario that would coincide with President Trump's affordability push for low- to middle-income households during the midterm election cycle, while higher-income households continue to benefit from market gains: a perfect scenario. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 10:25

Don't Wear Slippers, Pajamas At Airport, Transportation Secretary Duffy Urges

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is asking Americans to dress “with some respect” while flying, as part of his campaign to restore civility to air travel.

Travelers check in at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago on Nov. 25, 2025. Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images

“Whether it’s a pair of jeans and a decent shirt, I would encourage people to maybe dress a little bit better, which encourages us to maybe behave a little better,” Duffy said on Nov. 24 while giving a Thanksgiving travel briefing at New Jersey’s Newark International Airport.

“Let’s try not to wear slippers and pajamas as we come to the airport,” he continued. “I think that’s positive.”

Duffy’s comments came as he warned of what he called a “degradation in civility” among plane passengers. He urged them to show more “common courtesy” and patience during the holiday rush, such as helping fellow passengers who struggle to lift bags into overhead bins and saying “please” and “thank you” to flight attendants.

He also asked travelers to curb behaviors that could irritate those around them, such as watching movies without headphones or removing shoes and placing their feet on the seatbacks in front of them.

“Just be cognizant and courteous. That’s the ask,” he said.

National Civility Push

Earlier this month, the Department of Transportation (DOT) launched a national civility campaign called “The Golden Age of Travel Starts With You.” It is intended to “jumpstart a nationwide conversation around how we can all restore courtesy and class to air travel,” the agency said.

As part of its new initiative, the department is encouraging travelers to reflect on five questions during their trip, including whether they are keeping children under control and “dressing with respect.”

The campaign invokes the memory of the mid-20th-century “Golden Age of Travel,” when Americans typically dressed up for flights. Today, comfort is often prioritized over formality, especially given the tightly spaced economy cabins and the rise of flight delays.

The campaign comes in part in response to what the department describes as a record surge in unruly passenger incidents, including confrontations with crew and fellow travelers.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reports that such incidents peaked in 2021 before dropping sharply in the years that followed, although incidents remain roughly twice as many as before the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2021, the FAA started referring the most serious unruly-passenger cases to the FBI for potential criminal review. More than 310 of these cases had been referred since 2021 to the FBI under the partnership, the FAA said last August.

Thanksgiving Travel Outlook

The DOT’s civility push arrives just ahead of the Thanksgiving travel period, which the American Automobile Association expects to draw nearly 82 million people traveling at least 50 miles from home between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1.

Of those, about 6 million are expected to take domestic flights, a 2 percent increase from last year, according to the association. Air passenger volumes have hovered between 5 million and 6 million during Thanksgiving week in recent years.

Separately, on Nov. 16, the FAA announced it would roll back all restrictions on commercial flights at 40 major U.S. airports, including large hubs in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Atlanta. Those limits had been imposed during the record-long federal government shutdown, which left air-traffic controllers working without pay for more than a month.

*  *  * BLACK FRIDAY STARTS NOW

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 10:05

Chicago Manufacturing PMI Plunges In November

MNI's Chicago Business Barometer Report came in dramatically worse than expected for November, printing 36.3 (the lowest since May 2024), well below expectations of 43.6 and the prior print of 43.8

Under the hood, it was all ugly: 

• Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

And this confirms the plummet that we have seen in 'soft' data in aggregate since the shutdown was lifted...

Does it really feel like the worst of COVID currently in Chicago?

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 09:55

Texas Becomes First US State To Buy Bitcoin For Its Strategic Reserve

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

On November 20, Texas became the first U.S. state to buy Bitcoin for its Strategic Reserve, acquiring $5 million at roughly $87,000 per BTC, according to Lee Bratcher, President of the Texas Blockchain Council.

The purchase was made through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) while the state finalizes plans for self-custody.

The move signals growing state-level interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Texas had previously explored strategic Bitcoin legislation last year, wanting to create a Bitcoin reserve without using taxpayer funds. 

In June of this year, the Texas governor signed the legislation into law, creating a state Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Institutional investors are increasingly following suit. Harvard University’s endowment recently tripled its IBIT holdings to $442.8 million, making it the university’s largest publicly disclosed investment. 

Emory University and Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Investments have also significantly increased Bitcoin ETF exposure.

Bitcoin’s price is currently trading near $87,500, roughly 30% below its all-time high. Lee Bratcher was the first to disclose this news. 

“Texas will eventual self-custody bitcoin,” Bratcher said, “but while that RFP process takes place, this initial allocation was made with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

Bratcher is the President and Founder of the Texas Blockchain Council, an industry association with over 100 member companies and hundreds of individuals promoting Texas as a hub for Bitcoin and blockchain innovation. 

He actively championed the state’s Bitcoin reserve legislation, working on the ground to guide it through the state Senate.

Texas isn’t the only state interested in buying bitcoin 

In the legislation explored last year, Texas State Representative Giovanni Capriglione filed a bill to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the state. 

The legislation proposed that the state buy and hold bitcoin as a strategic asset, store it in cold storage for at least five years, allow resident donations, and enable state agencies to accept and convert cryptocurrencies to bitcoin. 

It also mandated transparency through yearly audits and reports. Modeled after a federal proposal by President Donald Trump and Senator Lummis, the bill mirrored the growing global interest of bitcoin. 

Earlier this month, New Hampshire became the first government worldwide to approve a $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond. The state’s Business Finance Authority (BFA) authorized the conduit bond, allowing private companies to borrow against over-collateralized Bitcoin held in custody, with repayment risk resting solely on the collateral. 

Borrowers must post roughly 160% of the bond’s value in Bitcoin, and automated liquidation protects bondholders if values drop. Fees and any BTC appreciation will fund the state’s Bitcoin Economic Development Fund. 

This move follows New Hampshire and Arizona’s earlier creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 09:25

John Deere Calls "Large Ag Cycle" Bottom Next Year - Just As China Ramps Up U.S. Soybean Buying

Economic conditions for American farmers have been brutal this year, as China shifted much of its soybean and other commodity purchases to South America. But the new Trump-Xi trade deal has sparked hope, with Beijing ramping up U.S. crop purchases once again. If sustained, this could signal that the worst of the farm-sector downturn is finally behind us.

American farmers finally received some clarity from equipment-maker John Deere, which said Wednesday morning in an earnings update that the bottom of the large agricultural cycle may materialize in 2026. 

"Looking ahead, we believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle," John May, chairman and CEO of John Deere, wrote in a statement. 

Deere's fiscal fourth-quarter outlook for 2026 highlights just how fragile the U.S. farm economy remains. It estimated fiscal-year net income between $4 and $4.75 billion, well below the $5.31 billion Bloomberg Consensus, sending shares down about 2% in premarket trading in New York. Deere shares are up 17% on the year, as of Tuesday's closing. 

Here's a snapshot of Deere's mixed quarter, beating estimates on several key lines while showing continued margin pressure across major segments (courtsey of Bloomberg): 

Headline Results

• EPS: $3.93 (vs. $4.55 y/y), topping the $3.88 estimate
• Net income: $1.07B, down 14% y/y but slightly above expectations
• Total net sales & revenue: $12.39B, up 11% y/y

Production & Precision

• Ag: Sales: $4.74B, up 10% y/y and ahead of estimates
• Operating profit: $604M, down 8% y/y
• Margin compression continues (12.7% vs. 15.3% y/y)

Small Ag & Turf:

• Sales: $2.46B, up 6.5% y/y and stronger than expected
• Operating profit collapsed to $25M (-89% y/y)
• Margin plunged to 1% (vs. 10.1% y/y)

Construction & Forestry:

• Sales: $3.38B, up a strong 27% y/y
• Operating profit: $348M, up 6% y/y
• Margins slipped to 10.3% from 12.3% y/y

Deere's call that the agricultural cycle will bottom next year comes as the Trump-Xi trade agreement aims to boost U.S. crop shipments. Rising export demand should help improve farmer sentiment and incomes, laying the groundwork for a more meaningful farm-sector recovery.

The latest word from Reuters is that China has purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans worth around $300 million in contracts signed on Tuesday. The purchases were confirmed by two traders with direct knowledge of the deals. This comes just two days after Trump and Xi spoke by phone, during which Trump touted a "great deal for U.S. farmers."

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 08:40

Initial Jobless Claims Tumble To 7 Month Lows

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time tumbled to just 216k last week - the lowest since April

Source: Bloomberg

Since the shutdown was lifted, jobless claims among workers in the 'Deep Tristate' have tumbled...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing jobless claims ticked higher - remaining above the 1.9 million level, near its highest since Nov 2021

Source: Bloomberg

...so much for the struggling labor market?

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 08:36

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 220,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 224,250 to 224,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 223,750.

Political Fallout Is Biggest Risk For Market After 'Botched' UK Budget

“Markets have had to catch up pretty quickly”

The astonishing early reveal of the UK budget’s main measures is causing chaos, with volatile moves in bonds and the pound...

Rachel Reeves’ Budget raises taxes by £26bn, taking the burden to an all-time high of 38 per cent of GDP by the end of the parliament, according to an accidentally released forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

The OBR’s assessment of Reeves’ Budget was published amid chaotic scenes before noon on Wednesday, around 45 minutes before the chancellor delivered her crucial second Budget.

It revealed that Reeves will freeze all personal income tax thresholds until 2030-31, in a move that is expected to raise £8.3bn a year and is the biggest tax-raising measure.

The second-biggest tax measure is a raid on salary sacrifice pension contributions, which will raise an additional £4.7bn. Among the other measures mentioned are charges on electric cars raising £1.4bn, gambling duty reform to bring in £1.1bn, and a council tax surcharge on homes worth more than £2mn, which will raise £400mn in 2029-2030.

Eir Nolsøe summarizes the headlines thus:

• Personal tax thresholds will be frozen until end of decade, raising £8 billion. This will pull 780,000 more people into paying the basic rate of income tax and create 920,000 more higher-rate tax payers.

• National Insurance on salary-sacrificed pension contributions will bolster the public coffers by £4.7 billion.

• Increasing tax rates on dividends, property and savings income by two percentage points, raising £2.1 billion.

• A new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028, at around half the fuel duty paid by petrol drivers. This will raise £1.4 billion.

• A reduction in writing down allowances in corporation tax that will cost firms £1.5 billion. These allowances allow big companies to deduct a percentage of the value of certain items from their profits each year.

• An overhaul of gambling taxes that will bring in £1.1 billion while changes to capital gains tax reliefs on employee ownership trusts raising £0.9 billion.

• The trailed ‘mansion tax’ will hit owners of properties over £2 million from April 2028. It will be implemented as a council tax surcharge and raise £0.4 billion a year by the end of the decade.

• Borrowing to fall from 4.5% of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.9% by 2030-31.

• Meanwhile, debt as a share of GDP will end the decade at 96% of GDP, up from 95% this year. This is two percentage points higher than anticipated in March and twice the debt level of the average rich country, according to the OBR.

• The fiscal watchdog predicts growth will be 1.5% on average a year until the end of the decade, a downgrade of 0.3 percentage points from March. The OBR blamed this on a weaker outlook for productivity gains.

• Welfare U-turns and ending the two-child benefit are poised to cost the taxpayer £9 billion a year by the end of the decade.

Who are the winners and losers of today’s budget?

Let’s start with the winners:

• Lower-income families with children, thanks to the chancellor’s decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap

• Pensioners and low-paid workers also benefit from higher minimum wage rates and state pensions, while all households will enjoy cheaper energy bills

• And let’s not forget the bond market which been positively (so far) surprised by a bigger-than-expected £22 billion buffer

• High street retailers thanks to changes to the business rates regime

• Investment companies owing to the changes being made to ISA to encourage more investment in stocks

The losers list is much longer, and broader. A few include:

• Millions will be dragged into paying higher rates of income tax

• Owners of more expensive properties facing higher levies, which has hit shares in some homebuilders

• Bank of England policymakers are now expected to reach their inflation target a year later than previous forecasts

• Overall, real household disposable income growth is projected to vanish over the next years

• Online gambling companies which will face significantly higher duties

As the most unpopular UK Chancellor ever...

Reeves defended her choices, saying there would almost be £22 billion of headroom in the public finances as a result of her Budget.

I said there would be no return to austerity, and I meant it. This Budget will maintain our investment in our economy and our National Health Service. I said I would cut the cost of living, and I meant it: this Budget will bring down inflation and provide immediate relief for families. I said that I would cut debt and borrowing, and I meant it: because of this Budget, borrowing will fall as a share of GDP in every year of the forecast.

Our net financial debt will be lower by the end of the forecast than it is today and I will more than double the headroom against our stability rule to £21.7 billion – meeting our stability rule and meeting it a year early.

These are my choices. Not austerity. Not reckless borrowing. Not turning a blind eye to unfairness. My choice is a Budget for fair taxes, strong public services, and a stable economy. That is the Labour choice.

However, there’s concern among cyber security experts as to how the OBR leak today happened too.

“It’s truly astonishing that such a market sensitive document could find its way online via official channels in advance of the Chancellor’s speech,” Kenny MacAulay, CEO of accounting software platform Acting Office said by email.

“Basic compliance requirements should be in place to prevent this from happening, and a complete review is required about how and why such a major breach would take place.”

James Baxter Derrington says the Budget “has broken the deal the Labour Party made with the nation and breached its manifesto”.

The extension of the income tax threshold freeze – Rishi Sunak’s invidious invention – is a direct increase in the taxes that working people pay, to the tune of more than £8 billion. Every penny of this will be swallowed up, not by improved public services for us all but by increased benefits payments to a select few. In fact, it will barely cover half of that cost.

For a Chancellor so dedicated to targeting those with the “broadest shoulders”, she has picked one of the most regressive taxes possible. This stealth tax will not target the wealthiest but disproportionately affect those working desperately hard on lower salaries. A party founded on the principle of supporting the working man has just betrayed him.

Continuing in the spirit of prioritising state reliance over rewarding work, Reeves has slashed the amount employees can put into their pensions via salary sacrifice schemes. Don’t worry about funding your own retirement through prudent saving, this government is keen to create a generation of pensioners reliant on the state.

The Telegraph highlights that Reeves has now raised taxes by £70 billion across her two Budgets, more than seven times the £8.5 billion mentioned in the manifesto. Meanwhile the national debt will rise to £3.5 trillion by 2031, more than double the £1.6 trillion before the pandemic (on the measure of public sector net debt excluding the Bank of England, the metric used under the Conservatives) as Rachel Reeves’s borrowing mounts up.

But as Bloomberg strategist, Simon White notes, UK market spreads face the bigger risk from the potential political fallout if the budget lands badly, rather than from any major surprises in the announcement.

Never in recent memory has a UK budget had such grim anticipation, nor been so botched in its preparation.

A smorgasbord of leaks and U-turns has preceded what is expected to be a smorgasbord of tax rises and extra spending commitments.

Nevertheless, the market is not yet having a nervous breakdown. A combination of risk spreads and other UK markets, such as sterling, asset swap spreads and bond spreads, has widened recently, but is still well below where it was at the time of Reeves’ first full budget in October 2024.

The market is giving a cautious pass to Reeves’ tax-raising plans (which have been mostly leaked over the last 24 hours), but it’s an uneasy truce. It’s not inconceivable, as also discussed by my colleagues earlier, that pressure will mount on Reeves to quit if her party’s backbenchers don’t like her policies, or it lands especially badly with the electorate.

Unless the narrative shifts away from soaking working people and savers to inflate an already bloated benefits bill, the blowback may be considerable.

If Reeves comes under risk, the Prime Minister would be in the firing line too. There is talk of a “coronation” for Health Secretary Wes Streeting after the local elections in May. Markets discount to the present, and so does politics. Pressure might grow for a change of leadership much sooner.

Streeting would not be expected to be as fiscally loose as some other leadership candidates, but he is an untested quantity. Nor do we know who his Chancellor would be. What we do know is that a typical Labour MP did not get elected to save money.

Markets abhor uncertainty as well as spendthrift politicians. Risk spreads will widen much more sharply if Reeves plays a poor hand badly today.

Andrew Griffith, shadow business secretary, said:

“This Budget process has been a fiasco from start to finish and the unprecedented leak of the OBR’s report is just the final embarrassment.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 08:26

The Middle Class Is Cracking

Authored by Charles Hugh Smioth via OfTwoMinds blog,

Borrowing more to maintain spending is hanging on by one's fingernails, not middle-class security.

The middle class is cracking, but if you want a statistic that "proves" this, there isn't one. The cracking isn't a statistic, it's the culmination of observations logged over the past 15 years about these critical measures of what it takes to qualify as middle class:

1. How much income a household needs to secure the minimum qualifications of a middle class standard of living / quality of life, based on the conventional standards of the 1960s - 1980s. (The qualifying characteristics are listed below.)

2. The upward or downward mobility of those claiming middle class status. Put another way: if it requires monumental effort and perfect execution to achieve the minimum qualifications of middle class security, then that isn't a "middle class" set of qualifications, that's an elite set of qualifications.

3. Precarity: how much (or little) financial disruption does it take to tip a household into a down-spiral that becomes increasingly difficult to escape. The foundation of any non-trivial definition of "middle class" (any definition that is solely based on income is trivial) is the financial resilience offered by ownership of assets, particularly income-producing assets, and savings that can be tapped to handle emergencies.

I've been addressing these issues for many years. Here are a few of my posts on the decay of the middle class:

Priced Out of the Middle Class (June 28, 2012)

What Does It Take To Be Middle Class? (December 5, 2013)

Misplaced Pride: Most of the "Middle Class" Is Actually Working Class (June 14, 2019)

Squeezed for Decades, America's Working Class Is Finally Up Against the Wall (May 13, 2024)

Here are the minimum requirements to qualify as middle class, drawn up by myself and readers:

1. Meaningful healthcare insurance. By meaningful I mean healthcare insurance that doesn't have high deductibles--if you have to pay thousands of dollars before the insurance kicks in, that's not insurance, it's a simulation of insurance--and insurance that isn't reduced to meaninglessness by limitations on coverage and/or zero coverge for core elements of healthcare.

2. Significant equity (25%-50%) in a home or other real estate.

3. Income/expenses that enable the household to save at least 6% of its net income.

4. Significant retirement funds: 401Ks, IRAs, etc.

5. The ability to service all debt and expenses over the medium-term if one of the primary household wage-earners lose their job.

6. Reliable vehicles for each wage earner.

7. If a household requires government assistance to maintain the family lifestyle, their Middle Class status is in doubt.

8. A percentage of non-paper, non-real estate hard assets such as family heirlooms, precious metals, tools, etc. that can be transferred to the next generation, i.e. generational wealth.

9. Ability to invest in offspring (education, extracurricular clubs/training, etc.).

10. Leisure time devoted to the maintenance of physical/spiritual/mental fitness.

11. Continual accumulation of human and social capital (new skills, networks of collaborators, markets for one's services, etc.)

12. Family ownership of income-producing assets such as rental properties, bonds, family-owned business, etc.

The absolute scale of these requirements is less important than all twelve being included in the household's quiver. In other words, it's not necessary to own equity worth millions, but it is important to own meaningful equity across the range of assets listed above.

Back in 2012, I went through each requirement and arrived at a minimum household income of $106,000-- adjusted for inflation, the equivalent sum today is $152,000. Before you scoff, please read the entirety of Michael Green's careful analysis of what qualifies as "poverty level income" and "middle class income:" How a Broken Benchmark Quietly Broke America (via Cheryl A.)

Green concluded the minimum income needed today is $140,000-- more or less the same as my estimate, especially given his detailed explanation of why this minimum is barebones.

Green's analysis of middle-class precarity dismantles all the statistical rah-rah presented as evidence that we're all getting richer every day, in every way. Like insurance with stupidly high deductibles, this isn't middle class security, it's a simulation of middle class security.

This report in the Wall Street Journal suggests this reality is now so undeniably obvious that the WSJ had to address it: The Middle Class Is Buckling Under Almost Five Years of Persistent Inflation: Workers growing tired of economy in which everything seems to get more expensive.

As Green explained, soaring costs for big-ticket essentials--all the things required to participate in the economy in a meaningful fashion--are crushing the middle class.

Unless you lucked into an early seating for the banquet of wealth served up by The Everything Bubble--then life is good: Feeling Great About the Economy? You Must Own Stocks: Investors' rosy feelings about their stock market gains are powering spending--but it's a different story for everyone else.

This has generated a generational divide in security/precarity and wealth accumulation: those who bought stocks and housing long ago when they were relatively cheap have piled up wealth not by being more productive, but by becoming early owners of capital that has been goosed by policies seeking to boost spending via "the wealth effect."

That this bubble-generated wealth flowed predominantly to older households with incomes that enabled asset purchases effectively made the rich richer. Those without these advantages lost ground, and absent the cushion of wealth piled up by The Everything Bubble, their claim to middle-class security is more a simulation than the real thing.

The middle class is cracking, and the Everything Bubble hasn't even started to pop yet; once it does, job losses will accelerate due to the self-reinforcing nature of job losses reducing income and spending which then triggers more job cuts. How the U.S. Economy Became Hooked on AI Spending: Growth has been bolstered by data-center investment and stock-market wealth. A reversal could raise the risk of recession.

This chart illustrates the reality: the already-wealthy have pulled away as financialization, globalization, precarity and inflation gutted the middle class.

The solidity and economic dominance of the US middle-class is illusory. The middle class is cracking, and borrowing more to maintain spending is hanging on by one's fingernails, not middle-class security.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition) through November. Introduction (free)

Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 08:05

Medicare Secures 71% Price Cut On Novo's Anti-Obesity Drug As Part Of Broad Affordability Push

The Trump administration is laser-focused on "Operation Affordability," aiming to drive down the cost of food and healthcare ahead of the midterm election cycle.

On Tuesday, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced a savings of 44%, or $12 billion, from last year's negotiated Medicare spending on 15 drugs used to treat severe chronic conditions and cancer.  

Of those price cuts, CMS negotiated a 71% discount on GLP-1 medication, including Ozempic and Wegovy, for Medicare patients.

Other significant reductions include a 50% cut for Pfizer's Ibrance, a 48% drop for the prostate-cancer drug Xtandi, and a 73% reduction for GSK's Trelegy Ellipta.

Here's more from CMS: 

The Maximum Fair Prices (MFPs) for these 15 drugs will become effective January 1, 2027, bringing the total number of negotiated drugs to 25 when combined with the 10 previously negotiated drugs with MFPs taking effect January 1, 2026. The 15 drugs in this second negotiation cycle, used to treat cancer, diabetes, asthma, and other chronic illnesses, represent some of the highest Medicare Part D spending. The MFPs offer substantial savings for both beneficiaries and the Medicare program.

These are the first large-scale, publicly disclosed Medicare drug-price negotiations - and for good reason, as the administration works to lower healthcare costs.

"President Trump directed us to stop at nothing to lower health care costs for the American people," said Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. "As we work to Make America Healthy Again, we will use every tool at our disposal to deliver affordable health care to seniors."

Bloomberg quoted Novo Nordisk as saying it had "serious concerns" about government-driven pricing and continued to oppose the negotiation framework, even as it pivoted toward aggressive price cuts for its GLP-1 drugs to gain market share. 

Related: 

• Novo Undercuts Lilly's Obesity Drug Price, Now Cheaper Than Car Payment

• Trump's Lilly And Novo Deal Slashes Monthly Weight-Loss Drug Costs By Up To 90%

• "Surgical & Beautiful": Trump Boasts Operation Affordability Ahead Of Midterm Cycle

CMS' announcement underscores the administration's accelerated push to lower prescription drug costs, expand affordability for Medicare beneficiaries, and reduce broader medical expenses, alongside efforts to ease food prices. With low-income household budgets under strain, affordability is shaping up to be a major topic heading into the midterm election cycle.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 07:45

Retirement Deadlines You Can't Miss By December 31

Authored by John Rampton via The Epoch Times,

As the year winds down, many people are thinking about holiday plans, family gatherings, and completing work projects. However, for retirees and those planning for retirement, financial deadlines carry a special urgency. Tax bills, retirement accounts, and even healthcare costs can be affected by some of these cutoffs. By missing them, you could be losing out on valuable opportunities, or worse, you may face penalties.

Zephyr_p/shutterstock

The good news? To stay on top of retirement-related deadlines, here are the most important ones you need to know before December 31.

Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

A must-do task at year-end for retirees over age 73 (or 72 if you reach that age before 2023) is to take required minimum distributions from traditional IRAs, 401(k)s, and similar tax-deferred accounts.

Why it matters:

As soon as you reach RMD age, you must withdraw a minimum amount every year. It’s a steep penalty if you don’t: 25 percent of the amount you should have withdrawn—reduced to 10 percent if you correct it quickly.

What to do:

• Confirm your RMD amount with your financial institution.
• IRA owners with multiple accounts can take their total RMDs from just one IRA. You must take distributions from each 401(k) separately, however.
• Avoid waiting until the last week of December, when hours may be reduced at banks.

Roth Conversions

Do you want to move money from an IRA or 401(k) to a Roth? A Roth conversion is a powerful tax-planning strategy since future withdrawals are tax-free. For the current tax year, however, you have until December 31 to complete a conversion.

Why it matters:

• As you enter retirement, a conversion can protect your tax rate and help diversify your tax exposure.
• When you convert the amount, however, you are subject to ordinary income taxes.

What to do:

• Analyze whether converting is worthwhile based on your current tax bracket.
• To avoid jumping into a higher tax bracket, consider breaking conversions into smaller chunks over several years.
• A tax advisor can help you with this strategy, as it requires careful planning.

Charitable Giving (Including Qualified Charitable Distributions)

If you want your charitable contributions to be considered for this year’s deduction, the year-end is also the deadline. With qualified charitable distributions (QCDs), retirees who are charitably inclined have even more flexibility.

Why it matters:

• If you itemize your deductions, traditional donations can reduce your taxable income.
• You can transfer up to $100,000 per year directly from your IRA to a qualified charity with a QCD for those age 70½ and older. Also, it counts towards your RMD and is not taxable.

What to do:

• Choose between giving cash, appreciated securities, or making a QCD.
• To claim the tax benefit, transfer before December 31.

Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs)

If you have an employer-sponsored health plan with an FSA and are not yet on Medicare, check your balance. FSAs typically follow a “use it or lose it” rule by December 31, though some plans allow for a grace period or a small rollover.

Why it matters: Typically, unused funds disappear at the end of the year.

What to do:

• Make those medical appointments you’ve been putting off.
• Be sure to stock up on over-the-counter products that are eligible.
• Verify your employer’s grace periods and rollover policies.

Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Plan Changes

During the Medicare Open Enrollment period, which runs from October 15 through December 7, the decisions you make affect your coverage for the following year. As a result, December is an important month to confirm your choices.

Why it matters:

If you miss this deadline, you’ll be locked into your current coverage, with a few exceptions. The result could be higher premiums or prescriptions that are not covered.

What to do:

• Compare your plan’s benefits for 2025 with those of other plans.
• Don’t forget to check your insurance coverage for doctors and prescriptions.
• To avoid surprises in January, submit changes before December 7.

Harvesting Tax Losses (and Gains)

You can offset capital gains or ordinary income up to $3,000 if you sell investments at a loss by December 31, if you have a taxable investment account. Known as “tax-loss harvesting,” this strategy lowers your tax bill.

Why it matters:

When done properly, tax-loss harvesting reduces taxes without significantly altering your investment approach.

What to do:

• With the help of your financial advisor, review your portfolio.
• Identify investments that are underperforming and sell them.
• It’s important to be aware of the “wash sale rule,” which disallows deductions if a substantially identical security is purchased within 30 days.

Maximizing 401(k) and IRA Contributions

Employer-sponsored plans, such as 401(k)s, require you to contribute to your retirement accounts by December 31. Contributions to IRAs, however, can usually be made until the tax filing deadline in April.

Why it matters:

• If you contribute before year-end, you won’t miss out on employer matching.
• In traditional accounts, contributions reduce taxable income for the current year.

What to do:

• Take a look at your contributions so far this year.
• Check with your HR department or benefits department about adjusting your contributions.

Reviewing Beneficiaries and Estate Plans

Retirement accounts, insurance policies, and estate plans can all be reviewed at the end of the year, even if there is no specific deadline.

Why it matters: In some cases, outdated designations, like former spouses, may override your will and result in family disputes.

What to do:

• Be sure to review all policies and accounts.
• As needed, update beneficiary designations.
• If your life has changed significantly, schedule a meeting with an estate planner.

Health Savings Account (HSA) Contributions

In case you have a high-deductible health plan and are eligible for an HSA, you can contribute until the tax filing deadline. Employers may, however, set internal payroll deadlines in December for employee contributions.

Why it matters:

With HSAs, you can make tax-deductible contributions, grow the fund tax-deferred, and withdraw money tax-free.

What to do:

• If you can, max out your contributions.
• Verify that your employer doesn’t set an earlier contribution cutoff than the IRS.

Key Takeaways

December 31 isn’t just the end of the calendar year—it’s also the end of many retirement planning opportunities. Taking RMDs, donating to charities, and reviewing Medicare coverage all have deadlines that cannot be overlooked.

If you plan early and consult with a financial advisor, you can avoid costly mistakes and optimize your tax strategy.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 06:30

These Are The Largest Bodies Of Water In Our Solar System

From the icy crusts of distant moons to the oceans beneath their surfaces, the solar system is teeming with hidden water.

This visualization from Made Visual Daily, via Visual Capitalist, compares all known and estimated bodies of water in our solar system, including those beneath the surface, on a volumetric scale.

The data comes from sources including USGS, NASA’s Ocean Worlds program, and a variety of planetary science missions, like Cassini and MESSENGER.

Comparing Water Volumes in the Solar System

Below is the full breakdown of water volumes by celestial body or source:

Earth’s ocean holds 1.3 billion km³ of water, but that’s dwarfed by subsurface oceans on other moons. Ganymede, for instance, is believed to host 11.4 billion km³ in liquid water beneath its ice shell—nearly nine times the volume of Earth’s oceans.

The Surprising Abundance of Extraterrestrial Water

When thinking of water in space, Mars or icy comets may come to mind, but some of the most significant reservoirs lie within the interiors of moons orbiting the gas giants. Jupiter’s Europa, with its estimated 2.88 billion km³ ocean, and Saturn’s Titan, with nearly 4 billion km³ beneath its surface, are standout examples.

These “ocean worlds” are central to current astrobiological research. According to NASA’s Ocean Worlds program, the presence of water increases the potential for life, making these moons high-priority exploration targets. Missions like Europa Clipper and Dragonfly are being developed to investigate these alien seas further.

How Do We Know There’s Water Out There?

Scientists use a combination of techniques to detect extraterrestrial water: gravitational field measurements, ice-penetrating radar, and spectroscopy are just a few. For instance, the Galileo and Cassini missions provided crucial insights into the internal oceans of Europa and Titan.

More recently, researchers have proposed new techniques to identify liquid water on exoplanets, using infrared signals from water clouds or oceans to analyze distant worlds.

Reframing Earth’s Place in the Water Hierarchy

While Earth is often dubbed the “blue planet,” it’s far from the wettest body in the solar system. Including underground and frozen sources, Earth’s total water volume still trails several icy moons.

This context reshapes how we think about planetary habitability. As our understanding grows, it’s increasingly likely that life-supporting conditions may exist far from the traditional “habitable zone” around stars.

 

 

Check out similar space explorations like Top 10 Star Systems with Earth-Like Exoplanets on the Voronoi app.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 05:45

China Deploys World’s First Commercial Supercritical CO2 Power Generator

China has activated what the South China Morning Post describes as the world’s first commercial power unit using supercritical carbon dioxide, or sCO₂, marking a notable step forward in clean energy technology.

Developed by the China National Nuclear Corporation, the generator replaces traditional steam with high-pressure CO₂ to turn waste heat from steelmaking into electricity, according to SCMP.

The first installation, located at the Shougang Shuicheng Steel complex in Liupanshui, Guizhou, links two 15-megawatt units to the grid and is expected to deliver roughly 50 per cent higher efficiency than typical steam-based waste-heat systems.

Unlike the Rankine cycle used in steam plants, sCO₂ systems operate on a compact Brayton-cycle loop. CO₂ becomes supercritical at high temperature and pressure, giving it fluid properties that boost energy conversion efficiency beyond 50 per cent while allowing turbines and auxiliary parts to be far smaller.

Because steel sintering can produce temperatures above 700°C, the process is well suited to this technology, and researchers see clear potential for applications in advanced nuclear reactors, mobile nuclear systems, space power units and concentrated solar facilities.

South China Morning Post writes that the project, built jointly with Jigang International Engineering and Technology, follows more than a decade of research. CNNC reached stable full-power laboratory operation in 2019 and began constructing the commercial system in 2023. According to SCMP, the new installation is intended to set a technological foundation for future large-scale deployments.

Similar sCO₂ demonstration efforts are also underway overseas. In Texas, the US Department of Energy–supported Step Demo pilot has already reached full turbine speed at 500°C, producing several megawatts of grid-synchronised power during early testing as it progresses toward its 10-MWe goal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 02:45

Does Germany Poses A Significant Non-Military Threat To Polish Sovereignty?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Its continued hegemony over Central & Eastern Europe threatens to further erode Poland’s already limited sovereignty, but this can be shattered with US support, though at the cost of subordinating Poland to Trump 2.0’s envisaged “Pax Americana” that would also impose limits on its sovereignty.

“The AfD’s Co-Leader Declared That Poland Could Become A Threat To Germany” earlier this month, the rationale of which was explained in the preceding analysis, but it’s also true that some in Poland regard Germany as threat to their country as well.

Whereas the perception that some Germans have of Poland as a threat is derived from it trying to shatter Germany’s hegemony over Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), the perception that some Poles have of Germany as a threat is derived from that selfsame hegemony.

The grey cardinal of Poland’s conservative-nationalist opposition (“Law & Justice” or PiS per its Polish acronym), Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has been among the most outspoken voices about this. He’s spoken on this subject for years, even declaring right before the special operation that Germany’s EU federalization plans are an attempt to build a “Fourth Reich”. Kaczynski recently reaffirmed that Germany nowadays leads “a kind of new empire” and, together with France, “want[s] to take Poland’s sovereignty away.”

Prime Minister Donald Tusk is “a German agent” tasked for fulfilling this plot, he claimed in late December 2023 after PiS lost control of the Sejm following its defeat in that fall’s elections, but Trump 2.0’s envisaged “Pax Americana” can possibly save Poland according to his latest assessment.

He said in late September that “Pax Americana would be global but it would allow for the existence of sovereign states, including a sovereign Poland, constrained only by demands of joint defence within NATO.”

This aligns with the insight shared in the earlier cited analysis about the AfD co-leader’s views on Poland, which drew attention to how the US is helping Poland shatter German hegemony in CEE in order to facilitate the creation of a Polish-led wedge (the “Three Seas Initiative”, 3SI) between Germany and Russia. For Poland to achieve its full geostrategic potential in this regard, both in furtherance of its own and the US’ shared interests, PiS must regain control of the Sejm during fall 2027’s next elections.

That would almost certainly necessitate allying with the Confederation party, which leads Poland’s populist-nationalist opposition and whose chief Slawomir Mentzen came in third place during the first presidential round with 14.81% of the vote, but Mentzen conditioned this on PiS’ top leaders resigning. Other than Kaczynski, he demanded the departure of former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, but their egos (especially Kaczynski’s) might prevent that despite it arguably being for the greater good.

In any case, Poland’s sovereignty can only enduringly be defended vis-à-vis Berlin-led Brussels by rallying CEE to collectively oppose the EU’s federalization plans, which can be advanced through transforming the US-backed 3SI into a political platform to this end. Poland must also continue reviving its lost Great Power status in parallel with replacing Hungary’s role as a continental hub for conservative-/populist-nationalist movements, which requires regaining control of the Sejm, all of which with US support.

Polish independence activists fought “for our freedom and yours” during the Partition period as they famously proclaimed, especially when they participated in independence struggles abroad, with their modern struggle against German hegemony over CEE representing the spiritual successor of that cause. Its success is also far from certain, but unlike back then, Poland can count on US support but at the cost of subordinating itself to “Pax Americana” with no chance of achieving full sovereignty under this order.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 02:00