The post The March Jobs Report and the Story of Time appeared first on CEPR.

 

This week, I speak with Songyee Yoon, founder and managing partner of Principal Venture Partners. Her AI-focused investment firm established in 2024, and since 2025, she has beem a member of the board of directors of HP.

We discuss her venture firm’s focus on AI-native companies, and understanding technological innovation. We also cover the tech investment landscape and how she determines which companies are native to AI and which are just “chasing the boom.”

A list of her favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including azny podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube (video), and YouTube (audio). All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Philippe Bouchaud, co‑founder, chair & head of research/chief scientist at Capital Fund Management (CFM) The $20 billion dollar fiorm specializes in managed futures). He beghan his career in theoretical physics, was awarded the IBM young scientist prize (1990) + C.N.R.S. Silver Medal (1996), and has published over 300 scientific papers and several books in physics & finance.

 

 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

The post MiB: Songyee Yoon, Principal Venture Partners appeared first on The Big Picture.

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• Maybe you should have bought an electric car: We run the numbers on EVs versus gas cars in an era of skyrocketing oil prices. The Iran war has turned the EV skeptics’ math upside down. The Iran War is illustrating the cost of anti-EV nonsense. (Noahpinion)

• How Apple became Apple: The definitive oral history of the company’s earliest days: As Apple turns 50, the founders and early employees tell the story in their own words. The true story of how Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and other bright young tech hobbyists of the 1970s joined forces to ignite a revolution. The mythology gets a reality check—and the reality is more interesting. (Fast Company) see also From the Pages of PC Magazine: How We Covered Apple’s Greatest Hits and Misses: As Apple turns 50, we look back at the boldest (and most questionable) hardware to ever pass through the PC Labs. (PC Magazine)

• Vanguard Investors Cleaned Up: Morningstar’s data shows Vanguard fund holders outperformed nearly everyone else, again. Low costs and discipline beat cleverness every time. (Morningstar)

• Private capital: what are the risks? The FT takes a hard look at private capital’s growing footprint and the systemic risks hiding behind the illiquidity premium. Blackstone’s scale makes this everyone’s problem. As investors seek to retrieve their money, the $22tn industry rejects comparisons with 2008. Regulators aren’t so sure. (Financial Times)

• How American Camouflage Conquered the World: The story of how MultiCam went from a military contract to a global fashion statement. America’s soft power now comes in woodland pattern. The world-famous MultiCam pattern was designed for the military by two Brooklyn hipsters. Now everyone—from babies to ICE agents—is suited up for battle. (Wired)

• Is the Smartphone Theory of Everything Wrong?: Derek Thompson challenges the popular idea that smartphones explain every social ill among young people. The data is more nuanced than the narrative. A Comprehensive Investigation. Many people believe that the nexus of smartphones, Internet, and social media is to blame for every modern catastrophe. Here’s 5,000 words on who’s right and who’s wrong. (Derek Thompson)

• When are bones no longer a person? A strange tale of King Cnut’s femur, ancient DNA, religious belief on bodies and souls, and a debate over what constitutes a person after death. A haunting philosophical essay on the ethics of human remains, identity, and when the dead stop being people. The kind of piece that stays with you. (The Garden of Forking Paths)

• Iran’s Wealth Is Parked on London’s Billionaires’ Row: Years of Western sanctions haven’t prevented money flows out of Tehran: ‘They probably learned from the Russian oligarchs’ (Wall Street Journal)

• Everything With Trump’s Name, Likeness and Signature: As anyone who has ever seen his buildings knows, Donald Trump has always liked to see his name displayed prominently. It’s become a hallmark of his presidency, to the point that the Treasury Department announced on Thursday that President Trump’s signature will appear on U.S. dollars later this year, a first for a sitting U.S. president. (New York Times)

• The Curious Case Of Sidd Finch: The greatest April Fools’ prank in sports journalism history—George Plimpton’s story of a Mets pitcher who could throw 168 mph. A perfect read for the day.He’s a pitcher, part yogi and part recluse. Impressively liberated from our opulent life-style, Sidd’s deciding about yoga—and his future in baseball. (Sports Illustrated)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Songyee Yoon, founder and managing partner of Principal Venture Partners, an AI-focused investment firm established in 2024, and since 2025 a member of the board of directors of HP Inc.

 

When final Gulf oil shipments will arrive around the world, as diesel and petrol prices surge 27% since Iran’s blockade began

Source: Mirror

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Micro AI Sentry Guns May Be Next Layer Of Defense For Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drones

Submitted by Cameron Rowe, Co-Founder and CEO of Sentradel, 

Most people don’t think about what the “cloud” actually is. It’s a physical building full of servers storing everything from your medical records to your social media. Every Google search, every ChatGPT query, every hospital pulling up your health history routes through a data center. Right now, those buildings have about as much aerial protection as your local Costco.

In March 2026, Iranian Shahed drones struck three AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. Multiple availability zones went down simultaneously, taking core services like EC2, S3, and Lambda offline, cascading outages to banks, payment platforms, and ride-hailing apps across the region. It was the first confirmed kinetic attack on a hyperscale data center run by a U.S. company. Shortly after, Iranian state media published a list of “Enemy Technology Infrastructure,” including Microsoft, Google, and Oracle facilities, painting targets on every major cloud provider in contested regions.

Yes, the cloud is distributed. Workloads can fail over. But data still lives somewhere physical, and partial corruption or destruction can be devastating in ways a temporary outage doesn’t capture. Medical records, financial transactions, and AI training datasets are worth hundreds of millions. When those are gone, they’re gone.

Global data center capex is approaching $1 trillion in 2026. The top four hyperscalers are collectively spending nearly $600 billion on infrastructure this year. That’s the physical backbone of modern life, sitting behind chain-link fences, with no ability to stop a drone costing between $30,000 and $80,000.

These facilities were never built to survive military threats. Security was designed around physical intrusion and cyberattacks, not one-way attack drones that cost a fraction of what they destroy.

Decentralization helps at the margins, but hundreds of billions of dollars poured into existing mega facilities can’t be shifted overnight. The real answer is layered detection and intercept: radar, RF sensors, EO/IR tracking, and kinetic or electronic defeat systems working together around these sites.

Autonomous counter-drone system

Watch: Autonomous counter-drone system

The military may eventually provide coverage for the most critical nodes, but they’ll prioritize their own assets first. And human life should come before server racks. That’s exactly why data centers need to be more proactive about protecting their own infrastructure rather than waiting for someone else to do it. Sentradel is already marketing counter-drone solutions to data center operators; it's likely to become more important over the next year as these kamikaze drones continue to improve rapidly in AI, speed, and payload. 

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 20:00

February Net Trailer Orders Down 43% As Bookings Fall 26%

Preliminary February net trailer orders fell by about 10,000 units from January’s 23,300, a 43% month-over-month decline, according to TheTrucker.com.

“Sequentially, a drop in net orders was expected, as the industry transitions from the strongest to the weakest order months of the annual cycle,” said Jennifer McNealy, director CV market research & publications at ACT Research.

“Trailer makers now will begin to take fewer orders and start to work down the backlog that grew during the peak of order season at the end of the previous year, which in this year’s cycle started and ended later than usual, as fleet decision-making hesitance into late 2025 delayed the cycle a bit and caused a high-side surprise in January.”

The report notes that February bookings totaled 13,200 units—26% lower than February 2025. After seasonal adjustment, orders come to 12,300 units. Final figures will be released later this month, with preliminary estimates typically within ±5% accuracy.

“We now question when we will see 20k-plus-unit order intake months again, and how quickly trailer OEMs will build down the still-thin backlog, particularly given concerns about the level of activity in the key freight-generating economic sectors that drive transportation demand,” McNealy said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 19:20

Hegseth: Military Bases Are No Longer Gun-Free Zones

Authored by Catherine Salgado via PJMedia.ocm,

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has overturned the controversial rule banning firearms from military installations.

Up until now, it was nearly impossible for servicemen to obtain permission to carry personal firearms on military posts and bases.  That is about the change.

“Not all enemies are foreign, nor are they all outside our borders,” said Hegseth in an April 2 video.

“Some are domestic. Confirming your God-given right to self protection is what I'm signing into action today. And I'm proud to do so.”

Our military installations have been turned into gun-free zones—leaving our service members vulnerable and exposed.

That ends today. pic.twitter.com/IQ204YepZ0

— Secretary of War Pete Hegseth (@SecWar) April 2, 2026

There have been multiple murders or mass casualty events on bases in the last decade, numerous drone incursions on military property, and a growing trend of foreigners breaching military bases, so there is good reason to think servicemen should be able to carry firearms on installations. Besides which, the overwhelming majority of mass shootings occur in gun-free zones. But Hegseth above all based his argument on the Constitution.

“Our great republic was founded on a simple yet bold idea: our rights, as citizens, are not granted to us by government, but instead, by God,” the secretary said.

“250 years ago, the Revolutionary War was fought to secure our God-given rights. The Second Amendment to our Constitution enshrines the right of all citizens to carry weapons to protect themselves, their families, and their fellow countrymen.”

And if any citizens can be trusted with guns, Hegseth argued, it is servicemen.

“The War Department's uniformed service members are trained at the highest and unwavering standards. These war fighters, entrusted with the safety of our nation, are no less entitled to exercise their God-given right to keep and bear arms than any other American,” he emphasized. 

Indeed, Hegseth stated, “Our warfighters defend the right of others to carry, they should be able to carry themselves. Recent events like what happened at Fort Stewart, Holloman Air Force Base, or Pensacola Naval Air Station have made clear that some threats are closer to home than we would like.”

In 2019, a member of the Royal Saudi Air Force committed a terrorist attack at Pensacola’s Naval Air Station that killed three sailors and injured multiple others. In August 2025, Sgt. Quornelius Radford shot five fellow soldiers at Georgia’s Fort Stewart. Most recently, on March 17, civilian Ashanti Stewart killed herself after shooting and injuring a service member at Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico.

Hegseth reflected, “In these instances, minutes are a lifetime. And our service members have the courage and training to make those precious short minutes count. Before today, it was virtually impossible — most people probably don't know this — it was virtually impossible for War Department personnel to get permission to carry and store their own personal weapons, aligned with the state laws where we operate our installations. I mean, effectively, our bases across the country were gun free zones, unless you're training, or unless you are a military policeman, you couldn't carry.”

That is a potentially dangerous state of affairs, Hegseth argued. “You couldn't bring your own firearm for your own personal protection onto post. Well, that's no longer. The memo I'm signing today directs installation commanders to allow requests for personal protection, to carry a privately owned firearm, with the presumption that it is necessary for personal protection.” 

He clarified, “If a request is for some reason denied, the reason for that denial will be in writing and will explain in detail the basis for that direction. Again, the presumption is, service members will be able to have their Second Amendment right on post.”

That way, if there are more attempted terrorists and mass shooters, servicemen will have their personal firearms ready.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 15:00

Trump Proposes $1.5 Trillion In War Spending, 'Largest In Decades'

Via The Cradle

US President Donald Trump is asking Congress to boost military spending to $1.5 trillion for 2027, the largest such request in decades, while demanding cuts to domestic spending on social programs, AP reported Friday.

The White House released details of the desired spending increase on Friday as part of Trump's 2027 budget proposal. The proposal comes amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, which is costing US taxpayers over $11 billon for each week it continues.

US Army/AP image

Last month, the Pentagon proposed receiving an additional $200 billion to backfill munitions and supplies used in the war, which has killed 3,527 Iranians, including 1,606 civilians and at least 244 children.

While the White House is demanding huge sums for war, Trump's proposal would reduce non-defense spending by 10 percent, primarily by shifting some responsibility for social programs to state and local governments.

"We're fighting wars. We can't take care of day care," Trump said at a private White House event on Wednesday. "It's not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare – all these individual things," he said. "They can do it on a state basis. You can't do it on a federal."

According to AP, "The president's annual budget more broadly is considered a reflection of the administration's values," but does not carry the force of law.

For Trump's spending proposal to take effect, Congress would have to approve it. The US is already heavily in debt, with the federal government spending nearly $2 trillion more than it receives in tax receipts each year. This year, the national debt surpassed $39 trillion, while the debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio now exceeds 120 percent, surpassing the peak reached after World War II.

While Trump ran for president on a platform of ending US wars abroad and putting the needs of US citizens first, he has instead prioritized initiating foreign wars in support of Israel's project to expand its hegemony and territory in West Asia.

The war on Iran is providing a boon to US and Israeli weapons firms, who stand to earn hundreds of billions in additional profits. After meeting with major defense contractors at the White House in early March, Trump said the companies had agreed to quadruple production of "exquisite" and sophisticated defense systems that can repel ballistic missile attacks, such as Patriot missile batteries and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors.

Each THAAD interceptor missile costs roughly $12.7 million, and each Patriot PAC-3 interceptor costs about $3.7 million. The interceptors have been used in large quantities to intercept Iran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel and US bases in the Gulf.

Among the weapons firms that stand to benefit most from the war are RTX (Raytheon), which makes Tomahawk missiles; Boeing, which builds F-15 and Growler warplanes; and Lockheed Martin, which produces F-35 warplanes and Patriot and THAAD interceptors.

Other firms that benefit include Northrop Grumman, which builds B-2 stealth bombers and radar technology; General Dynamics, which produces submarines, bombs, and warheads for missiles; and L3/Harris, which makes solid rocket motors for THAAD missiles and electronics and sensors for reconnaissance aircraft.

US defense stocks have rallied strongly since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Israel's genocide of Palestinians in Gaza starting on 7 October 2023 provided an additional boost, as did the US and Israeli war on Iran in June of last year and the anticipation of the second US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic that began in February.

* * *

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 14:10

Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump and no recession, so traders got comfortable. Then 2008 happened. Today, with Brent crude having spiked over 60% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, the same dangerous reasoning is circulating again. That narrative is that this “event” is manageable and will resolve quickly. If that is the case, then the economy will absorb it.

That may indeed be the case. However, the conditions that determine whether an oil shock becomes a full recession are specific, quantifiable, and worth examining with clear eyes. That is what this analysis does.

Not All Oil Shocks Are The Same

The post-World War II era has produced a half-dozen oil price crises significant enough to reshape the global economy. They share a surface-level similarity: prices spike, headlines scream, and politicians rage. However, beyond those commonalities, they diverge dramatically in their underlying causes and economic consequences. (Read Energy Price as an Economic Indicator)

The 1973 OPEC Embargo stands alone as the archetype. OAPEC nations cut production and placed a deliberate embargo on the United States in response to U.S. support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War. In roughly 4 months, the price of crude oil rose from $3 per barrel to nearly $12 globally, a 300% surge. The U.S. economy, already running hot with inflation at 3.4%, could not absorb the blow. GDP contracted 0.5% in 1974. Unemployment climbed from 4.6% to 9% by May 1975. The Fed raised its benchmark rate from 5.75% in 1972 to 12% by 1974 and still could not contain prices. The result was stagflation: high inflation (above 9%), high unemployment, and slow economic growth. Those THREE factors are the ugliest combination in economics.

Note: That last sentence is crucially important. Headlines are currently filled with the term “stagflation.” As discussed in the linked article above, current economic data does not meet the definition of stagflation.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution delivered a second shock to an economy still bruised from the first. Iran’s oil exports, then running at roughly 5 million barrels per day, collapsed as internal chaos overtook the country. Unlike the 1973 embargo, this was not a deliberate strategy; it was a production collapse driven by revolution. The oil supply only dropped about 4% globally, but the market’s reaction doubled crude prices to nearly $40 per barrel within 12 months. The Iran-Iraq War, which began in 1980, compounded the disruption. The U.S. entered another recession. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker ultimately had to drive interest rates to 20% to break the inflation spiral.

The 1990 Gulf War shock was sharper but shorter. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait removed roughly 4.3 million barrels per day from the market. Oil went from $15 to $42 per barrel in two months, a 75% spike. The U.S. entered a mild recession, with the S&P 500 falling about 21% from its peak. Crucially, the disruption lasted only months. Once coalition forces pushed Iraq back and Kuwaiti fields resumed production, prices fell sharply, and the economic damage was contained. This episode is the key comparative reference point for why duration matters so much.

The 2007-2008 oil surge is more complex. Prices rose nearly 100%, from roughly $50 to a peak of $147 per barrel in July 2008. The cause was not primarily a supply disruption; it was demand-driven, driven by a decade of explosive growth in China and by hoarding commodities in an unprecedented manner. But the shock landed on an economy already fracturing from the housing and credit collapse. The S&P 500 would go on to lose 55% from peak to trough. Attributing that devastation primarily to oil prices misreads the episode. The financial system’s breakdown amplified every other economic stress factor.

The Russia-Ukraine oil shock of 2022 drove Brent crude to $139 per barrel by March before falling back. The U.S. never officially entered a recession by the traditional two-quarter GDP definition, though it suffered a significant corrective event. The key difference was that the U.S. had by then become a net exporter of petroleum products, blunting the direct impact of prior shocks. However, the Fed was aggressively hiking interest rates to combat the surge in inflation resulting from the Pandemic-driven stimulus.

So, what does this mean?

What Separates The Killers From The Scares

The Federal Reserve Board’s own researchers concluded that there is no mechanical link between net oil price increases and subsequent recessions, even controlling for the magnitude of the spike. That statement sounds almost reassuring; however, what it actually means is more sobering. The same oil shock that causes a deep recession in one environment may barely register in another. The conditions surrounding the shock determine the outcome.

Five variables differentiate the recession-inducing shocks from the ones that economies absorbed:

• Duration and persistence of the disruption. The 1973 embargo lasted six months. The Iranian Revolution removed Iranian supply for much of 1979, then extended it by the Iran-Iraq War into the 1980s. These were multi-year disruptions that forced structural change, manufacturers to reprice inputs, households to slash consumption, and central banks to make crisis decisions in real time. The 1990 Gulf War spike lasted two months before Kuwait came back online. The economy absorbed a body blow, but not a sustained one. The difference between a broken rib and a severed artery is time and severity.

• Inflation conditions before the shock. The 1973 and 1979 shocks both hit economies where inflation was already elevated, and inflation expectations were untethered. The St. Louis Fed’s research found that the average real energy price increase preceding the four recessions between 1973 and 1991 was 17.5%, and in each case, the shock compounded pre-existing inflation dynamics. When workers expect prices to keep rising, they demand higher wages. When companies expect input costs to keep rising, they raise prices pre-emptively. The wage-price spiral becomes self-reinforcing. The 2004 to 2005 oil price increase was actually larger than the one that preceded the 2007 to 2009 recession, yet it did not trigger a recession. The difference was that inflation expectations were anchored in the mid-2000s, unlike in the 1970s.

• The role of monetary policy and its timing. Paul Volcker’s decision to raise rates to 20% was the necessary kill shot on 1970s stagflation, but it also pushed the economy into a severe 1981 to 1982 recession. The Fed’s response to an oil shock matters as much as the shock itself. An accommodative Fed that lets oil-driven inflation embed in the broader economy risks a worse outcome. A hawkish Fed that overreacts to supply-side inflation can trigger a recession independent of the oil shock itself. Neither 2003 nor 2010 saw the Fed forced into a crisis tightening cycle specifically because of oil.

• Energy intensity of the economy. This is the most structurally important factor for the current period. The amount of oil required to produce one unit of U.S. GDP has declined by more than 70 percent since the 1970s, according to World Bank data. As Paul Krugman noted in a recent analysis, the U.S. economy has roughly tripled in size since the late 1970s while consuming approximately the same total volume of oil. Every dollar of GDP today requires dramatically less energy than it did in 1973. As the IMF estimated, a sustained 30% increase in oil prices would reduce global GDP by up to 0.5%, which is serious but not catastrophic. The same shock in 1973 could cause damage multiple times that amount.

• U.S. net energy position. In 1973, the United States imported nearly everything it consumed. Today, the U.S. runs a net petroleum trade surplus — $58 billion in 2025, per Census Bureau data. Higher oil prices are a direct tax on importers. They’re a revenue windfall for exporters. The U.S. is now partially both, which fundamentally changes the calculus. Energy companies and the states where they operate benefit from price spikes even as consumers are hurt. That offset did not exist in any meaningful way before the shale revolution.

The 2026 Oil Shock – How Does It Compare?

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran targeting leadership, security forces, and missile infrastructure. Within days, Iran retaliated with missile strikes targeting oil vessels and infrastructure throughout the Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products normally flow, representing about 20% of global seaborne oil trade, effectively closed to normal traffic. Such headlines generally provide a springboard for more catastrophic views.

Those actions caused Brent crude to surge from around $70 per barrel before the conflict to $113.52 as of March 23. That is a 60-plus percent spike in under four weeks. In nominal terms, this is approaching the 2008 peak of $147 per barrel. The IEA’s 32 member nations coordinated the largest emergency drawdown of strategic reserves in the agency’s 52-year history, releasing 400 million barrels, more than double the volume deployed after the Russia-Ukraine outbreak in 2022.

So is this time different? In some ways, yes — and in ways that cut both directions.

The structural arguments for a more muted impact are real.

• The U.S. oil intensity of GDP has fallen roughly 70% since 1973.

• The U.S. is a net petroleum exporter.

• The strategic reserve architecture now exists specifically for scenarios like this.

• And inflation expectations, while elevated, are nowhere near the unanchored levels of the late 1970s.

Given this backdrop, Oxford Economics modeling suggests that global oil prices would need to average $140 per barrel for two months, alongside significant financial market tightening and deteriorating consumer confidence, to pose a clear recessionary risk.

On the other hand, the arguments for this being a more dangerous shock are equally serious. The Strait of Hormuz presents a physical chokepoint that cannot be bypassed through rerouting or sanctions workarounds, the way Russian supply was redirected after 2022. Roughly 80% of Asia’s oil imports transit that strait. Vietnam holds fewer than 20 days of reserve supply. The European Central Bank has already postponed planned rate cuts, raised its 2026 inflation forecast, and warned of the risk of stagflation for energy-intensive economies. Germany, the UK, and Italy face the highest recession exposure in Europe. And the U.S. economy entered this shock with a soft labor market, elevated consumer debt, declining consumer sentiment, and a stock market trading at historically expensive valuations before the conflict began.

Capital Economics recently projected that even in a contained three-month conflict scenario, Brent could average $150 per barrel over the next six months. In such a prolonged scenario, the IMF Managing Director warned of a meaningful global inflationary impact. Morgan Stanley also flagged that a conflict lasting longer than a few weeks would meaningfully raise recession probabilities through multiple channels: energy costs, inflation persistence, and tightening financial conditions.

This shock is bigger in scope than 1990, comparable in speed to 1973, structurally more like the physical supply shock of 1979 than the demand-driven surge of 2007, and occurring in an economy that is better insulated in some ways but already stressed in others.

The honest answer is that the outcome is genuinely uncertain and a situation that investors should not entirely ignore.

MARKET BEHAVIOR AND THE INVESTOR PLAYBOOK

History draws a sharp line between market outcomes in oil shocks that became recessions and those that did not. That line does not disappear just because it’s uncomfortable.

In the four oil-linked recessions between 1973 and 1991, the S&P 500 experienced average peak-to-trough declines of 20-48%. The 2007 to 2009 Great Recession, where elevated oil prices compounded financial system collapse, saw the index fall 55% from its highs. Recovery in these recession scenarios took anywhere from 126 trading days (post-COVID) to 895 trading days (post-Great Recession) to reclaim prior levels. That dispersion matters to any investor thinking about sequence-of-returns risk or near-term liquidity needs.

The non-recession oil shock episodes tell a different story. After the 2003 Iraq War oil spike, the S&P 500 delivered roughly 25% gains over the following year. Following the 2016 OPEC production cut cycle and resulting price rebound, equities posted approximately 19% returns in the subsequent 12 months. Kedia Advisory’s analysis of 7 oil spike episodes since 1986 found that the S&P 500 averaged a 24% return in the year following a major oil surge, with 6 of the 7 episodes producing positive forward returns. The one exception was 2008, when oil’s spike coincided with total financial system breakdown.

The critical investor lesson is that the oil shock itself rarely determines the market outcome. The recession does. And the recession typically follows when the shock is persistent, when it combines with pre-existing economic weakness, and when monetary policy cannot respond flexibly. That is precisely the risk matrix investors need to monitor right now.

What should investors do differently given this analysis? Three principles apply regardless of how the current conflict resolves.

• Manage duration risk in fixed income carefully. If this shock persists and inflation re-accelerates, the Fed will face pressure to keep rates higher for longer. That means Treasuries with long maturities carry more risk than they appear. Short-duration Treasuries and I-bonds remain the cleaner defensive position.

• Review energy exposure deliberately. Energy stocks historically outperform during sustained oil price shocks. The 2022 experience confirmed this as energy was the only S&P 500 sector to post positive returns for the year. But energy stocks often reverse sharply when the shock resolves, so this is a tactical, not a structural, position.

• Most importantly, do not let the shock force reactive decisions. The S&P 500 is already down about 7% month-to-date as of late March. A further 10 to 15% correction would not be historically unusual, even in a non-recessionary oil-shock scenario. For investors with properly structured portfolios, that kind of volatility is noise. For investors concentrated in high-multiple, rate-sensitive growth stocks, it may be the beginning of a more serious repricing.

The data across 50 years of oil shocks says this: if it’s a scare, markets often recover quickly, and investors who sold regret it. If it’s the beginning of a recession, the damage compounds for months before the bottom is clear. The difference between those two outcomes is driven by factors that are still unfolding and questions that need to be answered.

• How long will the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted?

• Will inflation expectations remain anchored or begin to drift higher?

• And, most critically, will the Fed maintain its policy flexibility or lose it?

I’m watching all three closely, and so should you.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 12:30

Senior Iranian Official Involved In Reaching Out To Vance Severely Wounded In Airstrike

A top Iranian official who was involved in diplomatic outreach and indirect talks or messaging with the United States and Pakistani mediators was reportedly critically wounded in a US-Israeli strike. Kamal Kharazi, an 81-year-old senior adviser to Tehran and former foreign minister, lost his wife in the Wednesday strike on his home, state media has said.

Kharazi chairs Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and has been viewed as a potential backchannel negotiator involving Islamabad, but now he's been hospitalized with serious injuries, state media has also said.

"We have seen what looks like an assassination attempt against the former foreign minister, Kamal Kharazi … We don’t know why he’s been targeted. He has been gravely wounded, and his wife was killed," said an Al Jazeera correspondent in Tehran.

Iranian officials described to Mehr News Agency that Kharazi was overseeing outreach to Pakistan tied to a possible meeting with US Vice President JD Vance. A potential Vance trip to Pakistan was initially reported as possibly being in the works late last month.

But Middle East Eye has reported that Kharazi was not seeing much room for diplomacy as US-Israeli actions escalate to attacks on Iranian infrastructure and energy:

He told CNN in March, "I don’t see any room for diplomacy anymore. Because Donald Trump had been deceiving others and not keeping with his promises, and we experienced this in two times of negotiations – that while we were engaged in negotiation, they struck us."

If he succumbs to his wounds, Kharrazi would be the latest senior Iranian official killed since the war began.

In addition to Khamenei, top security adviser Ali Shamkhani, Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Pakpour, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi, and Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh were all killed on the first day of the war.

Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, was killed on 17 March, along with his son and one of his ⁠deputies. Intelligence minister and head of civilian monitoring, Esmail Khatib, was killed in an Israeli strike a day later.

Some analysts and pundits have accused Israel in particular of trying to sabotage any US-Iran talks, as the Netanyahu government wants to see complete regime collapse in the Islamic Republic.

“While we were engaged in negotiations, they struck us,” #Iran’s Kamal Kharazi told CNN on Mar. 9. Today his home was struck, wife killed, he sustained serious injuries. NYT reports Kharazi was discussing w Pakistan possible US-Iran negotiations w VP Vance pic.twitter.com/fv61PK8ES0

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) April 1, 2026

Israel has also stood accused of seeking to create the conditions to lure the White House into authorizing 'limited' strikes which would inevitably become an open-ended war with no timeline.

* * * Meanwhile you can just order things...

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 12:00

Poison Ivey: Chicago Bulls Release Forward After He Speaks Out Against Pride Month

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This week, the Chicago Bulls waived guard Jaden Ivey for “conduct detrimental to the team.”

No, Ivey did not assault anyone or gamble on games.

He did not call for violence.

Ivey expressed his opposing religious beliefs, including criticizing the NBA’s Pride Month celebrations.

There is no question that private companies have the right to control employees’ on-the-job speech, including barring demonstrations such as kneeling during the national anthem. However, the Ivey controversy exposes the hypocrisy of sports associations and teams in the combination of corporate virtue signaling and athlete speech limitations.

Companies in various fields have asserted the right to condition contracts on the possibility of termination due to public behavior or comments that are detrimental to the company.

Notably, this was a player speaking off the basketball court who was deemed “detrimental” to the brand. The main concern is the lack of consistency. Actors such as Rachel Zegler have tanked their own movies to use their platforms to advance their own political viewpoints. Likewise, athletes have routinely espoused controversial views on racial divisions or law enforcement without losing their contracts. Recently, teams supported athletes espousing anti-ICE sentiments. In other words, it is not advocacy but the cause that these companies focus on when allowing or punishing speech.

At the same time, the NFL and NBA require players to wear and espouse views that some of them — like some in the nation — may oppose. Ivey was objecting that he does not feel that Pride Month is espousing “righteous” lifestyles. Ivey was not attacking the Bulls or the game. He was asserting that he does not support the virtues or values being endorsed by the company.

Many of us were offended by social media postings by Ivey in referring to Catholicism as a “false religion.” He also drew the ire of many by telling a fan that “God does not hear your prayer if you are a sinner.”

However, it appears that it was his criticism of the LGBTQ community and Pride Month that ended the matter with the NBA. Ivey objected to the advocacy required by the NBA, objecting “they proclaim it. They show it to the world. They say, ‘Come join us for Pride Month,’ to celebrate unrighteousness.”

The issue of “talent” becoming notorious has long been a focus of sports and entertainment contracts. Hateful or divisive public comments can impact a brand or corporate image. For example, a team does not have to continue an association with a racist spewing hateful remarks about fans.

The Ivey controversy should force a discussion of the countervailing responsibilities of the teams and the NBA. Some of us have previously criticized the virtue-signaling of associations like the NFL, with giant statements in the end zones and on players’ helmets. Many fans would like these teams to stop lecturing them and simply play sports. We do not need morality or civics lessons from the likes of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

However, if the NFL and NBA are going to get into the business of shaping fans’ values, they may need to accept greater leeway for athletes who hold opposing values. Instead, they are expecting athletes like Ivey to effectively endorse approved values while barring them from expressing dissenting views.

This is not the first such controversy. Years ago, former coach Tony Dungy was the subject of a cancel campaign because he expressed his faith at a pro-life rally.

Former Washington Commanders defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio was punished for expressing a dissenting view of what happened on January 6th and what he viewed as the different treatment given to these cases, including excessive sentences.

Likewise, recently, Chicago Cubs player Matt Shaw was the target of a campaign to trade him after he attended the funeral of Charlie Kirk.

Sports organizations, like other businesses, have every right to bar protests and political statements at games. They should, however, apply the same standard to themselves. It is time to get virtue signaling and social statements out of sports. Teams need to stop picking sides on social and political issues while blocking opposing views from their athletes. Once out of the business of shaping public values and views, these teams will be in a better position to demand that athletes avoid controversial public statements that alienate fans or harm a brand.

Otherwise, teams could simply bar such commentary during games and allow athletes the same freedom of expression outside of the game that the teams enjoy during games.

None of this means that Jaden Ivey is right or admirable in his specific statements. It only means that, if teams want him to just play basketball, they should do the same.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 11:30

Services Sector Contraction In March Screams Q1 Stagflation

Following S&P Global's Manufacturing PMI's better than expected print higher (signaling resilience in the face of March's war in Iran), the data released this morning showed the US Services Sector experienced a contraction of activity at the end of the first quarter of 2026.

The headline S&P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index recorded 49.8 in March, down from February’s 51.7 and lower than the earlier ‘flash’ estimate of 51.1.

It was the first decline recorded in over three years amid the weakest rise in new work since April 2024.

“The PMI survey data show the US economy buckling under the strain of rising prices and intensifying uncertainty, as the war in the Middle East exacerbates existing concerns regarding other policy decisions in recent months, notably with respect to tariffs," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence

The service sector has slipped into contraction for the first time since January 2023, dragging the overall economy down to a near-stalled 0.5% annualized rate of growth in March...

Worst hit is consumer-facing service sectors where, barring the pandemic lockdowns, the downturn reported in March was among the steepest recorded since data were first available in 2009.

However, financial services and tech, both of which performed strongly last year, have shown some signs of weaker performance amid financial market volatility and concerns over higher interest rates, which have deterred investment.

“Key to the deteriorating growth trend is a pull-back in spending amid worsening affordability, with costs and selling prices surging higher in March amid spiking energy prices.

The survey data are broadly consistent with consumer price inflation accelerating close to 4% as firms increasingly seek to push through higher costs onto customers in the coming months. "

The stagflationary environment of stalled growth and surging price pressures pictured by the PMI presents a major challenge to policymakers, especially with the March survey also indicating falling employment.

"Clearly much depends on the duration of the conflict. The fact that business confidence has merely dipped and not slumped is a sign that businesses are hopeful of a swift resolution to the war," added Williamson.

"However, a concern is that the energy disruption unleashed by the war in the Middle East may well have an impact that lasts far longer than any actual conflict and may test the resilience of business and households over the coming months.”

Ironic that this occurred during a month that saw the economy add a surprising 178k jobs.

 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 10:15

March Jobs Shocker: Payrolls Soar By 178K Most Since 2024, Blowing Away All Estimates; Unemployment Rate Drops

We titled our nonfarm payroll preview post "a substantial bounce" and boy were we right: with consensus expecting a material rebound from February's negative print (which was revised as usual worse, from -92K to -133K), what the BLS reported instead was a huge beat to expectations of a 65K increase, with March jobs reportedly rising by 178K, the biggest increase since December 2024.

The number was driven entirely by a surge in private workers which added 186K in March, far above estimates of 78K. Government workers continued to drop, sliding by 8K in March and now negative 8 of the past 9 months,

This was not only higher than all estimates but was a 3 sigma beat to the median forecast, something we haven't seen in over a year.

In keeping with tradition, the previous month's data was revised sharply negative, from -92K to -133K, despite expectations of an upward revision. Yet for once there was an upward revision in the historical data: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 34,000, from +126,000 to +160,000, and the change for February was revised down by 41,000, from -92,000 to -133,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 7,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from  businesses and government

A quick look at the Household survey shows that while the establishment survey posted a solid increase of 178K, the Household increase declined again, dropping by 64K, the 3rd month in a row.

This means that despite all attempt to revise away the impact of illegal immigration, it still lingers with total number of payrolls (Establishment) running well ahead of employed workers (Household).

There was more good news: the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.4% to 4.3% amid expectations of an unchanged print. This was despite a drop in the actual number of employed workers (per the Household survey) but offset by an even bigger drop in the civilian labor force, which declined by almost 400K, from 170.483MM to 170.087MM.

While the unemployment rate dropped, the labor force participation rate slumped to a 5 year low, largely due to the halt of illegal immigration, helping keep unemployment depressed.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Asian (3.7%) decreased in March. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8%), adult women (4.0%), teenagers (13.7%), and people who are White (3.6%), Black (7.1%), or Hispanic (4.8%) all posted a modest sequential drop. 

There was some good news for the Fed too, with a 0.2% increase in monthly average hourly earnings, below the 0.3% est and down from 0.4% in February, the annual increase in hourly earnings was just 3.5%, the lowest in 3 years, and below estimates of a 3.7% increase. It appears that the most important metric for the Fed - hourly earnings - is starting to take on water.

Yet while it was good for the Fed, it may not be good for others: with wage growth decelerating, the employment base - especially among native born workers (see below) remains narrow, reliant on public or quasi-public demand drivers rather than rate-sensitive private activity. 

A few additional highlights from the report:

• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.8 million in March but is up by 322,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.4 percent of all unemployed people in March. 
• Both the labor force participation rate, at 61.9 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.2 percent, both at multiyear lows 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in March. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.0 million in March. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force increased by 325,000 in March to 1.9 million. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
• The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, increased by 144,000 in March to 510,000. 

Taking a closer look at the Establishment survey, in March job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline. 

• Health care added 76,000 jobs in March. Employment in ambulatory health care services rose by 54,000, reflecting an increase of 35,000 in offices of physicians as workers returned from a strike. Employment also increased in hospitals (+15,000). Over the prior 12 months, health care had added an average of 29,000 jobs per month. 
• Employment in construction grew by 26,000 in March but had shown little net change over the prior 12 months.
• Transportation and warehousing added 21,000 jobs, reflecting a gain in couriers and messengers (+20,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 139,000 since reaching a peak in February 2025.
• Employment in social assistance continued its upward trend in March (+14,000), primarily in individual and family services (+11,000).
• Federal government employment continued to decline in March (-18,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 355,000, or 11.8 percent. Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received (or will receive) pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.
• Employment in financial activities edged down by 15,000 in March, reflecting a loss in finance and insurance (-16,000). Employment in financial activities is down by 77,000 since reaching a peak in May 2025.

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

The composition of the March jobs report was subpar: job growth was once again dominated by healthcare, a sector largely insulated from slowing growth or the Fed’s aggressive rate stance. Healthcare alone accounted for 76,000 of the 178,000 jobs added,more than 40% of the month’s total, driven in part by workers returning from a physician strike. Outside of that, there’s little to celebrate: construction showed modest gains, transportation remains well below its 2025 peak, and financial activities continued to shed jobs. Perhaps the best news was that government workers - which on the margin add little value, and are a drain of taxpayer resources - dropped again, now for the 6th straight month and 8 of the past 9.

Peeking below the surface of this month's report, we find that the quality distribution was solid, with +335K full-time jobs added, offset by a 188K drop in part-time jobs.

Last but not least, one of the most closely watched series, that of native vs foreign-born (mostly illegal) workers showed the biggest monthly increase in foreign-born workers since January 2025, which suggests that the strength in today's jobs report may have been derived from the one thing that Trump has been eager to do away with: illegal labor.

* * * 2 more in stock then it's gone

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 10:01

 

 

The world of investing has changed over the first 30 years of my career. Perhaps the biggest surprise has been the gradual shift from traditional alpha chasing to what is best described as “Organizational Alpha.”

Today, I want to share some examples  how this evolution has manifested itself at our firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management.

From Portfolio Management to Full-Service Wealth Planning

In the early days, the core offering was portfolio management — globally diversified, low-cost, disciplined. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is everything we built around it.

Investors need more than just a good portfolio. They need someone to coordinate their entire financial landscape — investments, taxes, estate plans, insurance, equity compensation, retirement plans, and charitable giving.

This comprehensive approach has resulted from a deep understanding of client goals. We focus on achieving desired client outcomes.  Maximizing investment returns is only one part of that journey.

Orchestrating Tax Planning and Wealth Management

Many advisors treat tax planning as an afterthought. We witness so many errors, oversights, and missed opportunities from CPAs who fail to orchestrate investments and tax planning.  after reviewing thousands of client tax filings, we realized we needed to make this a central function, and Ritholtz Tax was born.

Tax planning and preparation are now critical parts of our service model and among the most meaningful ways we can improve client outcomes.

It’s not just about preparing taxes. It’s understanding the entirety of a client’s tax situation which informs how we deploy tax loss harvesting, estate planning, and gifting strategies. Every Ritholtz Tax client gets a pro-forma tax analysis completed during the tax year so our tax focused investment strategies have the time they need to deliver results to manage tax bills. Waiting until the tax year is over is simply too late.

Behavioral Management

I stumbled down the behavioral finance rabbit hole in the 1990s on a trading desk. It has been the single most important insight I have learned regarding investors’ success in markets. We became known as one of the earliest adopters of combining BeFi with a data-based approach to managing client wealth.

Avoiding mistakes is so much more important than stock-picking or market-timing for your long-term success. Whether it’s “Liberation day” market jitters or volatility caused by spiking oil prices, our clients depend on us to help process current events and understand the impact they may have on a long-term financial plan.

Corporate Retirement Plans

Our dedicated 401(k) team works with business owners and executives on plan development, design, and deployment. A well-structured retirement plan is one of the most powerful tools a company has — for recruiting, retention, and the long-term financial health of its employees.

Reach out to the team to learn about the impact of  the “mega backdoor Roth” on your long-term savings.

Concentrated Positions

When clients come to us with large, concentrated stock positions, they need more than just advice to “Diversify!” They need a thoughtful, long-term, tax-aware plan to reduce risk without causing an unnecessary tax event. Our team of advisors and tax pros work together to develop a custom strategy that balances diversification with the real-world tax consequences of unwinding those positions.

Diversifying concentrated positions without subjecting clients to substantial tax hits has become significantly easier with the introduction of long/short equity strategies.

Custom Indexing Through Canvas (Equity)

We were among the first adopters of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management’s direct indexing platform, Canvas (now part of Franklin Templeton). Today, we have over a billion dollars on the platform. Why? Because the results speak for themselves — clients on Canvas have experienced an average after-tax boost of ~80 basis points since inception, driven primarily by systematic tax-loss harvesting. We have a meaningful level of client assets in direct indexing strategies, and we expect that number to grow significantly in the years ahead.

Bespoke Fixed Income Strategies

The investment management industry has historically allocated to fixed income categories without much regard to the clients’ individual situations.

The relative attractiveness of municipal bonds, treasuries, and corporate bonds varies dramatically based on your specific circumstances. One investor’s optimal max after tax yield will be different than another’s.

We leverage portfolio management software through Canopy Capital to maintain a consistent exposure to a client’s individually optimized bond allocation, with the additional benefit of tax loss harvesting. It is a custom solution driven by your income, federal tax bracket, and state and city tax levels.

Long/Short Portfolios 

For clients looking to offset substantial capital gains taxes, we manage leveraged long-short equity portfolios through AQR and OSAM. These are systematic, tax‑aware strategies designed to harvest ongoing, usable tax losses while deferring taxable gains. These maintain moderate net market exposure, allowing the investor to compound more pre‑tax gains and pay less tax along the way — especially after a taxable liquidity event (selling a business, building, a highly appreciated home, or concentrated stock holding).

Employee Stock Option Plan Management

We work with many clients whose wealth has come from company stock: not only founders’ shares and employee stock options, but RSAs, RSUs, NSOs, and ISOs. The key to successfully navigating this alphabet soup of equity is to approach it from both a diversification and tax planning perspective.1

Trust & Estate Planning

Estate planning is one of those things we all know we need, but nobody wants to do. Our in-house estate planning attorney and team work to make sure your documents reflect your intent, your family is protected, and nothing gets overlooked.

Whether it’s straightforward succession planning or complex multi-generational wealth transfer, we view it as a vital part of the ongoing advisory relationship — not just a one-time discussion.

Private Investments

More and more people come to us with private investments – that’s why we added a full-time dedicated analyst to cover alts, including private debt, credit, hedge funds, and venture capital.

As our client base has grown in both size and sophistication, so did the demand for access to private markets. But as I noted earlier this month in Ill-Liquidity Premium, the median alternative fund is not worth the fees, illiquidity, and complexity.

We approach privates the same way we approach everything else — with a well-founded focus on what actually adds value after fees.

Non-Profit and Institutional Management

We partner with nonprofit organizations to navigate the unique complexities of institutional management. Our team serves as both a governing and managing fiduciary, handling investment policy development, design, and deployment. We also assist with major giving strategies, leveraging our in-house tax and estate planning professionals to help organizations facilitate planned giving and complex charitable contributions.

Financial Literacy — It’s in Our DNA

Education has been part of this firm’s identity since before the firm existed. Between The Big Picture, A Wealth of Common Sense, The Compound, Animal Spirits, Masters in Business, At the Money, and the dozens of other media channels our team contributes to, we reach millions of people every week. We believe that informed clients make better decisions, and better decisions lead to better outcomes. Financial literacy isn’t a marketing strategy for us — it’s a core value.

The Evolution of Ritholtz Wealth Management

When we started Ritholtz Wealth Management in 2013, the vision was straightforward: build a firm grounded in evidence-based investing, behavioral finance, and radical transparency. Two partners, $60 million in assets, and a shared conviction that Wall Street’s traditional model was broken.

Thirteen years later, we manage over $7.6 billion in client assets for 1000s of families. But growth in AUM only tells part of the story. The real evolution has been in what we do for the people who trust us with their finances.

What Comes Next          

The evolution of RWM has always been driven by one question: What else do our clients need? Every capability we’ve added — tax, estate, privates, direct indexing, retirement plans, non-profit services — started with that question. We expect the next decade to bring just as much change as the last, and we plan to keep building.

~~~

Speak With Us

Do you need a financial QB to manage all aspects of your financial life? If so, reach out. To learn about how RWM works with clients, reach out to us at Info AT RitholtzWealth.com, with the subject line “QB.”

If you live anywhere near the Bay Area, come speak to us at our upcoming event in San Francisco during the week 0of April 14-17th. Email us: Info AT RitholtzWealth.com, with the subject line “San Francisco.”

 

 

Previously:
Announcing: Ritholtz Wealth Management (September 16, 2013)

Introducing RWM’s Educator / 403(b) Division (December 4, 2015)

Inverting Wall Street’s Research Business Model (March 14, 2016)

What is Organizational Alpha? (February 7, 2017)

What is Your Value Proposition? (May 30, 2017)

Our Exorbitant Privilege (June 19, 2018)

What Should You Be Paying for Investment Advice? (April 9, 2019)

10 Things I Have Learned Launching RWM (September 16, 2019)

Accessing Losses via Direct Indexing (April 14, 2021)

Tax Alpha (April 14, 2022)

Lessons from Our Origin Story (September 17, 2021)

RWM Makes Barron’s Top 100 RIA Firms! (September 15, 2025)

 

 

__________

1.  We also eat our own cooking when it comes to Employee stock ownership: From day one, we built our firm as a partnership. Every year, new partners are offered the opportunity to purchase equity. Today, 29 employee-owners sit on the cap table — co-founders, financial advisors, and key personnel. Nobody was handed free stock options; everyone invested. This structure is the backbone of our succession plan and our commitment to remaining 100% independent.

The advisory firms that last are the ones where employees who do the work have real skin in the game.

 

The post The Evolution of Alpha appeared first on The Big Picture.

Why Are They So Obsessed With This?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

As NASA’s Artemis II mission — the first crewed flight around the Moon in over half a century — gets underway, some in the media couldn’t resist injecting race into humanity’s greatest technical achievement.

Instead of celebrating the engineering triumph and the daring crew pushing the boundaries of exploration, certain outlets fixated on skin colour and “representation.” This is the same crowd that claims to champion science, yet they reduce every milestone to identity politics.

A Sky News reporter declared that the Apollo missions to the Moon “didn’t represent humanity because ‘Apollo was all white men…’” highlighting how even lunar history must now be filtered through the lens of grievance.

Sky News Reporter says that the Apollo missions to the Moon didn't represent humanity because "Apollo was all white men..."pic.twitter.com/xuvLEeWFOu

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 2, 2026

They couldn’t even exclude a manned moon mission, a stepping stone to colonising Mars, from this twisted obsession.

In a separate incident, a reporter attempted to goad NASA astronaut Victor Glover, pilot on Artemis II and incidentally the first person of colour to venture beyond low Earth orbit on a lunar mission, into giving a DEI soundbite.

Glover’s response, however, was a masterclass in sanity, as he responded, “I hope one day we can look at this as human history, not black history or women’s history.”

NASA pilot Victor Glover CLAPS back after being asked what it means to be the first black man to visit the moon: “It’s the story of humanity, not black history, not women’s history, but that it becomes human history.”

“I also HOPE we are pushing the other direction that one day… pic.twitter.com/0ctJfiWVRE

— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) April 2, 2026

Glover’s crew — including commander Reid Wiseman, mission specialist Christina Koch (the first woman to fly this far), and Canadian Jeremy Hansen — represents the best of merit-based selection, not quotas. Yet the race-obsessed can’t let it stand on its own.

X users weren’t having any of the nonsense. One sharp reply nailed the absurdity: “No mission will ever represent humanity until we have the world’s first trans, non-binary, dual spirit, free Palestine astronaut of color!”

No mission will ever represent humanity until we have the world's first trans, non-binary, dual spirit, free Palestine astronaut of color! pic.twitter.com/y0lgjxqQ5y

— MAGAMemeNY (@MAGAMemeNY) April 2, 2026

This fixation isn’t new. During Apollo, the focus was on beating the Soviets and landing on the Moon — full stop. No one paused the Saturn V countdown to lecture about demographics.

The 650 million people glued to their TVs in 1969 weren’t obsessing over the astronauts’ skin color; they were witnessing what free people, driven by merit and competition, could achieve. Now, as Artemis II builds on that foundation toward Mars, the same voices demand we rewrite the past to fit today’s dogma.

Real progress comes from excellence, not enforced outcomes. The Moon — and eventually Mars — doesn’t care about race quotas. It demands the sharpest minds and the boldest spirits. That’s the spirit that built Apollo and will get us back there and beyond.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

* * *

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 10:00

Hegseth Ousts Chief Of The Army As Iran War Persists

The Pentagon shake-up under Trump has not ended, as on Thursday Pete Hegseth has dismissed Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, asking him to step down into early retirement.

The move is unusual, given this is the head of the Army and the United States is past the one-moth mark in Trump's Operation Epic Fury. A reason hasn't been given as to what amounts to Gen. George being effectively fired.

CBS writes, "One of the sources said Hegseth wants someone in the role who will implement President Trump and Hegseth's vision for the Army."

A top defense official has also said: "We are grateful for his service, but it was time for a leadership change in the Army."

The chief of the Army is typically a four-year term, and already there's speculation over who will be the likely candidate to lead next:

The current vice chief of staff of the Army, Gen. Christopher LaNeve, who was formerly Hegseth's military aide, will likely be considered as a replacement. He previously served as the commanding general of the Army's 82nd Airborne Division from 2022 to 2023.

The U.S. Military Academy at West Point posted photos on social media on Thursday of George, saying he "shared experience-driven guidance with cadets preparing to lead" during a visit.

There's been some serious background controversy over the last weeks among top command ranks regarding the Trump admin's preferences:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is blocking the promotion of four Army officers to be one-star generals, a highly unusual move that has prompted some senior military officials to question whether the officers are being singled out because of their race or gender.

Two of the officers targeted by Mr. Hegseth are Black and two are women on a promotion list that consists of about three dozen officers, most of whom are white men, senior military officials said.

Mr. Hegseth had been pressing senior Army leaders, including Army Secretary Daniel P. Driscoll, for months to remove the officers’ names, military officials said. But Mr. Driscoll, citing the officers’ decades-long records of exemplary service, had repeatedly refused.

As for Gen. George, he was commissioned as an infantry officer out of US Military Academy in 1988 and saw deployments in Operation Desert Shield, Operation Desert Storm, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Operation Enduring Freedom. He later served as vice chief of staff of the Army from 2022 to 2023, before being nominated by Biden to become Army chief of staff.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 09:30

Cash Is King, Dowd Sees $10,000 Gold As The Credit Market "Is Starting To End The Party"

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the end of January that the “Credit Destruction Cycle” was showing up in something called private credit. 

Dowd was worried about extreme risk in the economy, especially with all the growth in lending in the last two years coming from private credit. 

Has this gotten better or worse? 

Dowd says, “It’s gotten worse, and it has spread..."

"The number if credit funds that have gated their investors keeps growing.  This is important because high net worth individuals, insurance companies and pension funds put millions of dollars in these private credit funds and now they want to redeem them, and there is a gate.  The last two years of loan growth in the economy was from banks loaning to private credit. . .. There have been earth shaking events in private credit land.  That started a cascading effect of people becoming worried about their private credit fund. 

Then, redemptions started, and some funds like Blue Owl have taken massive hits.  They had to gate their fund.  Apollo gated their fund.  Black Rock gated their fund, and KKR has gated their fund. 

So, there is a lot of gating going on. 

Basically, this is the beginning of the credit cycle rolling over. 

This starts in the most egregious sector, which looks like private credit. . .. 

So, the credit market is starting to end the party, and we are going to see this cascade throughout the whole economy.”

The Iran war just turbocharges the entire negative global scenario. 

Dowd says, “You layer on top of this the Iran war and that only hastens the whole thing unless there is a quick resolution.”

Isn’t Iran getting creamed financially speaking?  Dowd say:

“Financially speaking, yes, but we have no way to know what’s going on or who they are negotiating with.  It’s kind of an information black hole.  There is propaganda from our side and their side. 

My hope is that this is resolved as quickly as possible without troops on the ground. 

If we got that, and the Strait of Hormuz is opened rather quickly, there would be a rally in our markets, but the forces bearing down on the economy are going to happen regardless. 

There will be a temporary relief rally, but what I am predicting is still going to roll through the system. 

If there is no quick resolution, then this will hasten everything because there will be global demand destruction. 

This will hasten a global recession that I see coming no matter what.”

Dowd put out a report forecasting what’s coming in 2026.  Any way you cut it, not many will escape the pain, and there is a lot left to come in Dowd’s 2026 forecast.  Dowd says, “I am in a very conservative mood..."

"Our call from our economic report is risk assets are going to be under pressure. 

Cash is king in this scenario. . .. We think inflation is going to be coming down.  Even though we call this an oil price shock,  it’s not an inflation shock because demand destruction will eventually come. 

Inflation will go up in the near term, but inflation will roll over as everything else will roll over price wise, especially the housing part of the CPI.  That is already under pressure. 

Rents have been coming down, and home prices always follow.  It is now cheaper to rent a house than to own a house. 

Home prices are going to come down, and that will cause a recession in and of itself. 

You throw a bursting AI bubble on top of that and a Chinese economy that is going into the tank this year and you get a global recession...

...Let me remind you, private credit already started to have its problems before the war even started with Iran, and private credit is the canary in the coal mine.”

Dowd is still forecasting gold to hit $10,000 per ounce in the next few years (2030) and is also still bullish on silver long term.  Dowd goes into detail about the severe problems China is facing with its economy and does not see how it can be a global financial superpower anytime soon.  This is fascinating analysis on China’s financial situation that everybody should listen to.  (Order the full China report here.)   Like Martin Armstrong, Dowd is also a big fan of stocking up on food and water in case of supply chain disruptions.

There is more in the 47-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd as he explains why we are starting to see big trouble for the US economy.   Dowd predicted this was coming in January with his report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 09:00

The post To Have Cheap Drugs, Stop Making Them Expensive appeared first on CEPR.

US Futures Drop Ahead Of Payrolls With Most Markets Closed

US equity futures dipped ahead of today's payrolls report in a holiday-shortened session, with most cash markets including US stocks closed globally for Good Friday. Sifma, the US financial markets trade association, recommended trading of dollar-denominated bonds during US hours only and a 12pm New York time stop. As of 8:15am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%. Bonds dipped modestly in a holiday-shortened session, the 10Y yield rising 1bp to 4.31%. The dollar was mixed against its Group-of-10 peers.  Oil rallied above $110 a barrel Thursday after Trump issued fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure in an effort to pressure Tehran in negotiations. West Texas Intermediate surged 11%, while the global Brent benchmark settled near $109. The jobs report is the main event on today's calendar and is due at 8:30am (preview below). 

Iran targeted more sites in Arab Gulf states overnight and into Friday. A container ship signaling French ownership exited the Strait of Hormuz, in what appeared to be the first known transit by a vessel linked to Western Europe since the Iran war all but shuttered the vital waterway.

The main highlight today is the March jobs report (full preview here) which is expected to show a sharp rebound from February weather - and strike -related weakness, with a median forecast for nonfarm payrolls change of 65k; Bloomberg Economics anticipates a 150k rebound

With most of Europe closed for Good Friday, Asian stocks were the only action overnight and rose at the end of another volatile week with a report leading to some optimism that more traffic may be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. Regional shares followed a recovery in US equities Thursday on news that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the key waterway, having effectively shut it down since the start of the war. Trading was light in Asia with many key markets shut for holidays. 

MSCI’s benchmark Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%, with South Korea’s yoyoing Kospi rising 2.7%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbing 1.3%. China’s CSI 300 Index reversed an earlier advance to drop 0.9%.

“The improvement in US risk appetite has spilled over” into Asian equities, said Hitoshi Asaoka, chief strategist at Asset Management One Co. in Tokyo. “While oil prices may not fully return to previous levels, if they do partially normalize, there is considerable room for a rebound from a liquidity perspective.”

On Thursday, US stocks started off deep in the red after Trump’s speech late Wednesday did little to reassure investors that the war was nearing a swift resolution, though he had previously set a two-to-three-week timeline for ending the conflict. However, they subsequently soared on some speculation transit through the strait may soon be allowed. The higher close for the S&P 500 on Thursday ran counter to a pattern of late-week selloffs that have hit the market ever since the war began, as nervous investors unwind positions that could be upended if weekend developments threaten to worsen the hit to the global economy.

“While assets gyrate on every new headline, until a clear agreement is achieved with a palatable plan for reopening the Strait, there’ll be downward pressure on economic growth and upward pressure on headline inflation,” said Max Gokhman, deputy CIO, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. “That spells indigestion for both equity and bond investors.”

The dollar was mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. US stock-index futures, also open for an abbreviated session, declined, with contracts on the S&P 500 down by 0.3%.

In rates, treasury futures held small losses ahead of the release of March employment data: benchmark yields were higher by 1bp-2bp, with the 10Y yield rising to 4.3128% after ending Treasury little changed having erased oil-led increases amid increasing investor focus on eventual recession risk from the oil shock.

Oil rallied above $110 a barrel Thursday after President Donald Trump issued fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure in an effort to pressure Tehran in negotiations. West Texas Intermediate surged 11%, while the global Brent benchmark settled near $109.

“With US payrolls coming up and a holiday ahead, markets are wary of what could happen over the weekend — especially the first weekend after” Trump’s prime time speech on Wednesday, said Rina Oshimo, a senior strategist at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “If attacks escalate or retaliations occur, oil prices could remain elevated for longer.”

JPM interest-rate strategists advised taking profit on their March 20 recommendation to buy 2-year Treasuries at 3.891%, which was based on the potential for higher oil prices to stoke recession concerns; the yield ended Thursday just below 3.80%, and the exit call was made because of the risk that strong March employment data will erode expectations for a Fed rate cut this year. Trading of CME interest-rate futures is scheduled to end at 11:15am, and Bloomberg dollar-denominated bond indexes will be priced at 1pm based on prices collecting through 12pm. Oil markets also are closed; oil prices have been a principal driver of bond yields since the surge unleashed by the Feb. 28 start of the US war against Iran, and US benchmark WTI crude futures closed Thursday at the highest level since 2022

The main even on today's calendar is the March jobs report is expected to show a rebound from February weather- and strike-related weakness, with a median forecast for nonfarm payrolls change of 65k. US economic data calendar also includes March final S&P Global US services and composite PMIs; no Fed speakers are slated.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 08:24

Iran Attacks Kuwaiti Desalination Plant, Bringing Gulf Water Supplies Into Focus

Just three days into Operation Epic Fury, we pointed out what may be the more consequential second-order risk, arguably even more important than the risk of data centers getting bombed (identified a month earlier): Are desalination plants the next targets in the U.S.-Iran war?

Not even a week after we raised that question, the first worst-case scenario emerged. On March 8, one week into the conflict, an Iranian attack drone struck a water desalination plant in Bahrain.

Fast forward to Friday morning, on the conflict's 35th day: Kuwaiti authorities claimed Iranian forces targeted a power and desalination plant, sounding even more alarm bells that civilian infrastructure is increasingly moving into the crosshairs.

Bloomberg quoted Kuwait's Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy as saying an Iranian strike damaged components of the water desalination plant.

This suggests Tehran has exposed the vulnerability of critical water infrastructure across a region that relies heavily on these facilities, which remove salt and impurities from seawater or brackish water for drinking water and other agricultural or industrial uses.

Al Jazeera's Mohamed A. Hussein recently explained why Gulf states heavily rely on water desalination plants:

The Gulf states are deserts with no permanent rivers. While they lack rivers, they do have seasonal waterways called wadis, which carry water during rare rainfall. These nations rely primarily on groundwater and desalination to supply water to their rapidly growing cities, industrial zones and agricultural areas.

The map below shows just that:

Hussein noted:

The Gulf countries produce roughly 40 percent of the world's desalinated water, operating more than 400 desalination plants along their coasts.

The reliance on desalination plants is extremely high across the Gulf:

Beyond the attack on Kuwait, Iranian forces also targeted Habshan, the UAE's massive onshore gas-processing hub operated by ADNOC Gas in Abu Dhabi, forcing it to shut down operations.

The problem now, as the worst-case scenario emerges, is that if more Gulf desalination plants are damaged or taken offline, it could easily spark a humanitarian crisis.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 08:00

Abu Dhabi Halts Operations At Main Gas Plant After "Falling Debris" From Iranian Strike

Operations at Habshan, the UAE’s massive onshore gas-processing hub operated by ADNOC Gas in Abu Dhabi, were halted on Friday after local authorities said a fire broke out at the facility due to "falling debris" from a "successful interception by air defense systems" of an Iranian air-delivered munition. 

"Abu Dhabi authorities are responding to an incident of falling debris at the Habshan gas facilities following a successful interception by air defense systems," the UAE's Emergency, Crisis, and Disaster Management Center wrote on X.

The UAE's emergency crisis center continued, "Operations have been suspended while authorities respond to a fire. No injuries have been reported."

Abu Dhabi authorities are responding to an incident of falling debris at the Habshan gas facilities, following successful interception by air defence systems. Operations have been suspended while authorities respond to a fire. No injuries have been reported.

The public is…

— مركز إدارة الطوارئ والأزمات والكوارث (@Adcmc_ae) April 3, 2026

Habshan is at the core of the process by which raw natural gas from Abu Dhabi’s upstream energy assets is cleaned, treated, and split into usable products for domestic use. The facility produces gas for domestic use, along with NGLs, condensate, and sulfur. It's also the starting point of ADNOC's crude pipeline to Fujairah, the world's second-largest bunkering hub and a critical energy export terminal that bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint.

ADNOC states on its website that Habshan serves utilities and industrial customers across the UAE, including desalination and steel, and that it supplies about 60% of the country’s natural gas requirements.

Habshan ranks among the world's top gas-processing complexes and comes weeks after Iranian strikes on QatarEnergy’s massive LNG complex, which will require $20 billion in repairs and years to fix and will curb about 12.8 million tons per year of LNG.

Last week, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some of its long-term LNG contracts, including those for customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China, effectively canceling contractual obligations.

On top of LNG supplies being disrupted across the Gulf region, the Hormuz chokepoint remains clogged, and as JPMorgan's top commodities expert warned days ago, the energy shock is first hitting Asia, then Africa and Europe, before settling in the U.S., but mostly California.

Source

The Gulf energy shock is also forcing countries across Asia and Europe to switch power plants to coal to avert soaring power prices. The LNG disruption is also sparking fertilizer shortages across critical agricultural belts worldwide, which could crimp harvests later in the year.

Gas research firm Criterion Research’s early read is that, once the fog of war clears across the Gulf energy complex, the clearest beneficiaries may be LNG exporters along the Gulf of America for years to come. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/03/2026 - 07:15