The paperback of “How NOT to Invest” drops this month; to celebrate, I present this excerpt from the book about a BW story that was published exactly 25 years ago!

This short, Apple-related excerpt from the book was a fun chapter to write… Enjoy!

 

 

“Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work”

“Few outsiders think new stores, no matter how well-conceived, will get Apple back on the hot-growth path… Maybe it’s time Steve Jobs stopped thinking quite so differently.”
—BusinessWeek, May 21, 2001

A year after Fortune’s Cisco debacle, BusinessWeek1 published a story on Apple’s foray into retail stores. Not just BusinessWeek, but many naysayers laughed off the inevitable failure of Apple’s push into retail.2 Numerous armchair pontificators freely shared their uninformed opinions as to why this concept was destined to fail. “I give [Apple] two years before they’re turning out the lights on a very painful and expensive mistake,” predicted retail consultant David Goldstein.3

After all, established consumer electronics chains were all in decline, and the writing was on the wall. Gateway would soon close its retail stores (2004), and not long after, CompUSA would shutter its physical locations (2007).

Investors should always be on the alert for structural errors in media stories: Authors operating outside of their expertise; people unaware of recent developments; extrapolators extending present trends far into the future. It is an excellent reminder of exactly the kinds of errors investors should avoid. A fallible human being publishing their uninformed opinion in print should never be the basis for making any intelligent investment decision.

There are many genuinely revolutionary products and services that when they come along, change everything. Pick your favorite: the iPod and iPhone, Tesla Model S, Netflix streaming, Amazon Prime, AI, perhaps even Bitcoin. Radical products break the mold; their difference and unfamiliarity challenge us. We (mostly) cannot foretell the impact of true innovation. Then once it’s a wild success, we have a hard time recalling how life was before that product existed.

The Apple Store was clearly one of those game-changers: By 2020, Apple had opened over 500 stores in 25 countries. They are among top-tier retailers, and the fastest ever to reach a billion dollars per year in sales. They did more in sales per square foot in 2012 than any other retailer.4 By 2017, they were generating $5,546 per square foot in revenues, twice the dollar amount of Tiffany’s, their closest competitor.5 Apple no longer breaks out the specifics of its stores in its quarterly reports, but estimates of store revenue is about $2.4 billion per month.

That guy who wrote, “Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work,” I wonder what the rest of his portfolio looks like…

Finance seems to encourage this kind of future forecasting. We are bad at this, because we often lack awareness of what we do and do not know about the limits of our expertise; we do not truly understand the present, let alone the future. We often wishfully predict what we want to be true, rather than what will come to be.

We look at the Dunning-Kruger effect later, but the key takeaway is most of us are not very good at metacognition—estimating our own skillsets.

Learning what we do and don’t know—working within our capabilities— that’s challenging enough, without other people’s bad forecasts in our heads…6

 

 

Footnotes:
1. Cliff Edwards, “Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work,” BusinessWeek (May 21, 2001).

2. Nearly a decade and a half later, those naysayers were recounted here: Ana Swanson, “How the Apple store took over the world,” The Washington Post ( July 21, 2015).

3. Jerry Useem, “Apple: America’s best retailer,” Fortune (March 8 2007).

4. Seth Fiegerman, “Apple Has Twice the Sales Per Square Foot of Any Other U.S. Retailer,” Mashable (November 13, 2012).

5. Chance Miller, “Apple again found to be the world’s top retailer in sales per square foot,” 9TO5Mac ( July 29, 2017). See also: Marianne Wilson, “The most profitable retailers in sales per square foot are….” Chain Store Age (CSA) ( July 31, 2017).

6. If you think the Apple Store cover story was bad, just wait until you see what the media had to say about BlackBerry…

 

 

The paperback of “How NOT to Invest” is out this week at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Books-AMillion, Bookshop, Hudson, or wherever you buy your favorite books!

If you want to learn more about how the book was made, any related media appearances or background, get unique bonus material, or just ask a question, you can sign up here: HNTI at RitholtzWealth dot com.

 

The post Why the Apple Store Will Fail… appeared first on The Big Picture.

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

• Stock Gains Without All the Taxes? How the Hottest Trade on Wall Street Works: The stock-market surge has propelled the use of a new kind of tax-loss harvesting. We break it down. The WSJ on the surge of direct-indexing and Section 351 ETF conversions that let wealthy investors swap concentrated stock into diversified portfolios without triggering capital gains. A useful explainer for clients asking about it. The stock-market surge has propelled the use of a new kind of tax-loss harvesting. We break it down. (Wall Street Journal)

• Trump’s Investments In Palantir And Nvidia Draw Scrutiny—Here’s What Companies Were Traded. President Donald Trump drew scrutiny Friday over millions of dollars of securities trades made in recent months involving companies his administration has also made deals with — though Trump’s son Eric said the trades were made by a blind trust. Forbes lines up the President’s recent trading activity against companies with direct policy exposure. Read alongside the WSJ pieces on his accounts — it’s a single story being told in pieces. (Forbes) see also See How Trump’s Accounts Were Busy Trading Big Tech Stocks: Trump’s investment accounts had a surge in activity, with more than 3,700 trades in the first quarter. The WSJ’s data-driven look at the trading activity reported across Trump-family accounts — well-timed mega-cap entries and exits clustered around policy news. Make of it what you will. (Wall Street Journal)

• New York Real Estate in the Age of Inherited Wealth. NYC housing no longer tracks real estate fundamentals, it tracks equity portfolios and private equity flows, a concentration that feels durable but has never been historically. On the increasingly visible role of parental cash in Manhattan and Brooklyn closings. The first-time buyer cohort is now functionally two markets — those with family equity and everyone else. (Housing Notes)

• Mapping the household-level transmission of monetary policy: The monetary tightening that followed the post-pandemic inflation episode has revived long-standing debates about how monetary policy affects households. This column uses a survey of more than 25,000 US households, combining hypothetical questions with randomised information experiments, to show that monetary policy has a contractionary impact on consumption, but the transmission mechanism differs substantially from conventional theory. VoxEU on micro-data showing rate hikes hit households very unevenly — by mortgage type, age, and income. Useful corrective to anyone still treating “the consumer” as a single object. (VOXEU CEPR)

• LinkedIn Is Doing What Bluesky Was Supposed to Do: Rebuilding a public square on the platform you least expect. For a brief moment about a year ago, it really did look like Bluesky might work. Researchers and left-of-center intellectuals were flooding in, swapping starter packs, reassembling what felt like a nostalgic reunion of old Twitter. Then everyone arrived, and the center could not hold. A sharp argument that the post-Twitter intellectual conversation didn’t move to Bluesky or Threads — it quietly migrated to LinkedIn, of all places. Uncomfortable for everyone involved, but not wrong. (Popular by Design)

• Why are people so excited about Swatch’s Royal Pop watch? Similar to past sales of its kind, some people queued for days to get their hands on one of the eight models. But the ferocity of interest in the product, both online and on the high street, has split opinions about responsible marketing and whether the watches are even worth it. (BBC)

• Google Chrome silently installs a 4 GB AI model on your device without consent: Including a back-of-envelope on the climate cost at billion-device scale. The ‘opt-out’ fiction continues. At a billion-device scale the climate costs are insane. (That Privacy Guy!)

• Russia’s War Is Going Badly—on the Ground and in the Air. Ukraine’s growing arsenal of long-range drones and domestically produced missiles has been hitting oil infrastructure and military facilities deeper inside Russia. Putin shows no signs he is rethinking his aims The WSJ on a Russian summer offensive that has stalled while drones and long-range strikes are quietly wrecking the air arm. The market narrative on oil and defense names is starting to lag the battlefield. Putin shows no signs he is rethinking his aims (Wall Street Journal)

• New panels produce hydrogen fuel using only water, sunlight and no electricity: This grid-independent system eliminates the need for traditional electrolyzers in green hydrogen production. A direct-solar-to-hydrogen panel design with efficiency numbers that, if they hold up at scale, would matter. Big “if” — but the field has had a quietly good year. This grid-independent system eliminates the need for traditional electrolyzers in green hydrogen production. (Interesting Engineering) see also What It Will Take to Make AI Sustainable? Researcher Sasha Luccioni argues we need better emissions data and a better sense of how people are using AI in the first place. Wired on the brute physics problem the industry is still pretending isn’t one — gigawatt clusters, cooling water, and a power grid that wasn’t built for any of this. Real numbers, no hopium.Researcher Sasha Luccioni argues we need better emissions data and a better sense of how people are using AI in the first place. (Wired)

• US science after a year of Trump: A series of graphics reveals how the Trump administration has sought historic cuts to science and the research workforce. (Nature)

Video of the day: World War II told in 20 Episodes with Tom Hanks

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Vimal Kapur, CEO and Chairman of DJIA component Honeywell International. The firm is in the midst of dividing into three companies: Honeywell Automation, Honeywell Aerospace, and Solstice Advanced Materials. The firm has fully integrated AI as the intelligence layer in all of its automation processes and products.

 

Trump’s investment accounts had a surge in activity, with more than 3,700 trades in Q1

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

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The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Why College Grads Hate AI

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

I saw a fascinating clip on Twitter/X recently.

At the graduation ceremony for the University of Central Florida, the commencement speaker brought up AI.

“The rise of artificial intelligence is the next industrial revolution.”

BOOOOOO! HISS! The new college grads are not fans.

To understand how the public attitude toward AI has changed, watch the 1-minute video below of a commencement speech in Florida:

Gloria Caulfield, a real estate executive, was booed by the students when she mentioned AI during her commencement speech at the University of Central… pic.twitter.com/pFdeIbH2dg

— Luiza Jarovsky, PhD (@LuizaJarovsky) May 13, 2026

Source: X

Gloria Caulfield, the speaker, was shocked by the negative response.

“What happened?”, she asked in a Long Island-tinted accent.

Eventually the speaker continued:

“Only a few years ago, AI was not a factor in our lives.”

And the crowd goes wild cheering at that nostalgic thought. But then…

“And now, AI capabilities are in the palm of our hands…”

The crowd absolutely hated this line. More, louder booing and hissing. The speaker said it hesitantly. She knew it wasn’t going to go over well, based on prior reactions. If this young crowd would have had rotten vegetables handy, a volley of tomatoes and eggplant would have been launched in Gloria’s direction.

Young People (Understandably) Hate AI

Put yourselves in the shoes of a young American for a moment.

Houses are unaffordable. Rent and food are almost as bad. To have children comfortably, you’ll need to be in the upper 10% of earners (depending on the area).

You’re watching the stock market zoom ahead, but have little or none invested.

Your country is importing hundreds of thousands of foreign workers, mostly from India, to fill tech jobs. They’re willing to work 60-80 hours a week for far less pay.

And now, along come AI agents. Autonomous artificial workers who plan, complete, test, and complete complex tasks. Coding is currently the primary target, but agents will rapidly expand to every corner of the white collar world.

Ken Griffin’s Revelation

Billionaire Ken Griffin, founder of giant hedge fund Citadel, has been an AI skeptic. Up until now.

With the latest agents, his team is making a disturbing amount of progress. Ken says he went home on a recent Friday afternoon “depressed” about the societal changes these agents would bring.

An excerpt from Fortune’s reporting:

For Griffin, the most striking proof isn’t in coding or content—it’s in high-end financial research. Work that Citadel would previously have assigned to teams with master’s degrees and PhDs in finance, work that took weeks or months, is now being completed by AI agents in hours or days.

“To be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with master’s and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days,” Griffin said at Stanford.

We’ve entered the disruption stage now. And young people are on the front-lines. The first jobs cut were entry-level, but now AI is eating its way up the food chain.

Fortunately AI is still horrible at picking stocks and writing, which is our speciality. And honestly, I don’t see them getting significantly better anytime soon. AI models are trained on the entire internet, good, bad, and horrible. But anything is possible, and nobody is 100% safe from the coming wave.

Three Paths – Blue Collar, AI Master, or Entrepreneur

As I see it, young people today have three primary paths to choose from.

Path #1: Blue-Collar

First, they can take the blue collar route. As I’ve mentioned before, my 16-year old son will be starting an apprenticeship to become an electrician this summer. I’m proud he chose this path, and think it’s a great decision.

Opportunities for plumbers, electricians, welders, mechanics, and other blue collar workers are wide open. It will be many decades before robots replace these jobs.

And of all people, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently acknowledged this trend.

“AI gives America the opportunity to build again. Electricians, plumbers, iron workers, technicians, builders—this is your time. AI is not just creating a new computing industry, it is creating a new industrial era.”

Isn’t it fascinating that the primary beneficiary of the AI boom is touting blue collar work? There’s a good reason for it…

Path #2: AI Masters

The second path young people can choose is a bit riskier, but has a higher upside. They can attempt to become an “AI master”. After all, there will still need to be people in the loop.

We will still need people checking the code AI writes, assigning projects, and overseeing progress.

Over the past few years a saying has taken hold, and it’s worth repeating. There are a few different versions, but here’s mine: “Your job won’t necessarily be taken by AI, but it will be taken by someone using AI better than you.”

Path #3: An Entrepreneurial Boom

The third path, of course, is becoming an entrepreneur. And AI makes this easier than ever. Even non-technical people can write solid code now, so the tech part of building a business has certainly become easier.

I expect many young people will take the entrepreneurial path. They may not have much of a choice in the matter, assuming they’re determined to enter the white collar world.

I fully expect a small-mid sized business boom over coming years. And though these businesses won’t hire as many people as they used to, there will still be significant opportunities to hire smart people.

A Breaking System

For many decades, the goal of most parents was to send their kids to college so they can find a good white collar job.

This era is ending. The transition may take another few decades to complete, but we are now headed in a different direction.

The future of white collar work will look like a smaller number of “AI masters” managing fleets of AI agents.

Blue collar work is on the rise. It will become an increasingly popular option. But many people are still stuck playing the status games, where the “rules” say we must send our kids off to university. They don’t want to tell the neighbors that little Billy’s going to be a plumber. This will change rapidly if AI plays out like I expect it to.

Young people today have many things to be upset about. And they’ve thought about these issues far more deeply than we have. So consider reaching out to the young people in your life, and asking them about their plans.

If they seem confused about what to do, ask if they’ve considered a blue collar career. I’m convinced that it’s the best path for millions of young Americans.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 20:55

Multiple States Begin Ejecting Illegal Immigrants From Subsidized Healthcare

The political left often betrays their true agenda in the legislation they choose to oppose.  The SAVE Act, for example, would require proof of citizenship to vote in US elections; a law which the majority of countries around the world enforce.  It's widely supported by around 80% of the public, yet, Democrats stubbornly refuse to pass it.  

Why?  Because they know there are illegal immigrants voting in their favor, and they know that mail-in ballot fraud exists and often benefits them. 

By extension, Democrats aggressively attempted to block Trump Administration efforts to ensure that illegal immigrants could not receive healthcare subsidies.  Their argument was that "no illegals actually access those subsidies".  Of course, if this was true, then it should not matter if Trump adds such restrictions - According to Dems, nothing would change.

In reality, progressive politicians know that around 1.4 million "asylum seekers" (illegal immigrants who entered the country under Biden's open border policies and then took advantage of the system) were on the healthcare rolls at the end of 2024.  They also know that by offering welfare programs to illegals, they are buying the future loyalty of those migrants (as well as keeping them in the country to rig the census in favor of blue states).   

Today, this loophole is being rectified by a number of states that are now requiring proof of citizenship in order to qualify for public healthcare programs.  You would think this is common sense, but Democrats and some medical institutions are not happy with the changes. 

Hospitals across the state of Tennessee say they are receiving notice from the Department of Health requiring them to verify the citizenship status of everyone enrolled in public benefit programs. 

Opponents to the reforms say this includes Children’s Special Services, which provides access to care for children from birth to 21 years of age.  The process for disenrolling kids 18 to 21 has already begun, and there is a process underway to disenroll kids zero to 17. 

It is a typical Democrat tactic to target and isolate a single "vulnerable" group and use them to justify the existence of welfare benefits for all foreigners.  You don't want to steal that wheelchair away from little Pedro or snatch life saving medicine away from poor innocent Gabriela, right?  It is also the case than many of these healthcare providers stand to lose millions in government subsidized payments if migrants are kicked off the rolls. 

The propaganda is highly manipulative.  However, just a few months ago, the political left was arguing that "no undocumented immigrants" are receiving government healthcare benefits (Democrats say "undocumented" because they consider asylum seekers "documented").  Today, they are frantic over patients being checked for citizenship before receiving medical welfare.    

For now, adult applicants who can’t verify their status will be disenrolled by May 29. This comes after the Tennessee General Assembly passed a law requiring all applicants for public benefits ages 18 and older to verify they are in the U.S. legally.

At bottom, anyone regardless of citizenship is typically able to access emergency services in the US.  However, taxpayer funded care should be reserved for citizens only.  Foreigners are not entitled to taxpayer dollars; it's really that simple.  Keep in mind, this is how it works in almost every country in the world, including communist countries like China with "universal healthcare".  

A number of states are implementing or are on the path to implementing similar laws, including North Carolina, Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Wyoming and Oklahoma.  

Ultimately, anyone who cannot afford their own healthcare should not be looking for citizenship in the US in the first place.  Becoming an American citizen is a privilege, not a handout.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 20:30

Sanctuary Jurisdictions Must Comply Or Face More ICE Boots On The Ground: Homan

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sanctuary jurisdictions in the United States will see more Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) personnel on the ground if they do not allow local law enforcement to cooperate with ICE officers, border czar Tom Homan said in a May 15 interview with the Daily Signal.

Federal law enforcement agents confront anti-ICE protesters during a demonstration outside the Bishop Whipple Federal Building in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on January 15, 2026.

In the interview, Homan was specifically asked about New York. In January, the state’s governor, Kathy Hochul, proposed the Local Cops, Local Crimes Act, which bars state and local law enforcement agencies from signing or maintaining any Section 287(g) agreements with ICE.

Such agreements authorize ICE to delegate certain immigration functions to local and state officers under the agency’s oversight. Local and state officers can detain suspected illegal immigrants under the deal.

If passed, the New York bill would void all existing Section 287(g) agreements in the state. Homan said in the interview that he had talked to Hochul about the consequences.

“I said, Look, you end cooperation in the jails, we’re going to have to send more agents to do the job, because now, rather than one agent arresting one bad guy in the jail, which is safer for the agent, safer for the alien, safer for the community, of course, you’re going to release him. Now we got to send a whole team, six or seven agents, to go find him. So, it’s going to result in more agents in the community,” Homan said.

“Totally briefed on the whole thing, but she decided to go ahead and do it anyways. Well, I made a statement that we’re going to send more agents to New York. We have to, as a response to this, go arrest those public safety threats.”

When asked whether any sanctuary jurisdiction that doesn’t cooperate with ICE would face more ICE personnel on the ground, Homan replied, “Absolutely.”

The border czar said that he warned Hochul that there would be more collateral arrests if that’s the situation. For instance, if ICE were to arrest a criminal illegal alien, and the individual was with another illegal immigrant, then the second individual would be arrested as well.

Plus, Hochul’s legislation bans ICE from leasing beds from sheriffs in the state, due to which every illegal immigrant arrested has to be flown out of state for detainment. So, if New York locks ICE out of local jails for detaining illegals, “then we’ll simply fly them out,” Homan said.

Earlier this month, Hochul announced that an agreement had been reached with legislative leaders on the key priorities of the fiscal year 2027 state budget, including a provision banning state, local, and federal officials from wearing masks while on duty.

“Good luck with the law of banning masks. Federal law always trumps state and local law. And while threats are up over 8,000 percent, masks is a non-starter, so good luck enforcing that,” Homan said, regarding that provision.

New Yorkers in Danger

In a Jan. 30 statement, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees ICE, warned that Hochul’s proposal barring local police departments from partnering with ICE would place New Yorkers in danger.

Between Jan. 20, 2025, and Dec. 1, 2025, New York failed to honor several ICE detainer requests that resulted in the release of 6,947 criminal illegal immigrants into the streets, the agency said in an April 16 statement.

This includes people charged with 2,509 assaults, 392 dangerous drugs offenses, 305 robberies, 300 weapons offenses, 207 sexual predatory offenses, 199 burglaries, and 29 homicides.

Meanwhile, in April, a group of lawmakers introduced the Sanctuary City Elimination Act, which aims to ensure that all federal, state, and local law enforcement officers can coordinate with ICE without fear of backlash, according to an April 16 statement from the office of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

“For far too long, sanctuary cities across the nation have sidestepped federal immigration law and created safe havens for dangerous illegal aliens, putting the safety and security of Americans at risk and undermining the rule of law,” Cornyn said.

The act “would ensure local and state law enforcement coordinates with ICE officers, ban certain federal funds from going to sanctuary cities, and allow victims of criminal illegal aliens who are released from sanctuary jurisdictions and reoffend in other states to seek justice.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 20:05

IRGC Says It Foiled US Arms Shipments To 'Terror Groups' Near Border With Iraqi Kurdistan

Via The Cradle

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement on Monday that it foiled an attempt to smuggle a large shipment of US-made weapons and ammunition into the country.

"Counter-revolutionary terror groups based in north Iraq, acting on behalf of the US and Zionist regime, intended to transfer a large shipment of brand-new US weapons and ammunition into the country. They were targeted and struck in Baneh, Kurdistan Province. Large quantities of weapons and ammunition were discovered and confiscated," the statement said.

Arms seizure image circulated by IRGC in state media

The statement added that intelligence efforts are ongoing to identify and arrest all internal collaborators allegedly linked to the armed groups.

The IRGC Hamzeh Sayyed al-Shuhada Headquarters warned "all mercenary elements, their agents, and their leaders that any security-related action will be met with severe force, and … a regret inducing response."

The announcement comes as Washington has been seeking to arm separatist Iranian Kurdish groups in order to destabilize the Islamic Republic. At the start of the war, reports said that US President Donald Trump was seeking to turn Kurdish militias into a "ground force" within Iran. 

Kurdish groups opposed to the Islamic Republic denied last month US claims that Washington armed their fighters during the January 2026 unrest in Iran. 

Last week, Trump slammed Iranian Kurds for "stealing" US weapons and failing to deliver them to "protesters" and dissidents who, according to Washington, were willing to fight against Iranian forces. 

"The Kurds take, take, take," the president told reporters, adding that they "kept" the weapons and "only fight hard when they get paid."

Iranian Kurds were heavily involved in the 2022 armed riots, which broke out in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini. Former US national security advisor John Bolton openly admitted that year that weapons from the Iraqi Kurdistan region were being smuggled into Iran for separatists to use against government troops.

President Trump on being 'disappointed' in the Kurds...

#Trump on #Kurds and his order to attack #Iran:

I'm very disappointed in the Kurds, we gave them weapons to deliver inside Iran, but they kept them instead. pic.twitter.com/lknQd6AOrr

— Mina (@Mina696645851) May 12, 2026

Kurdish groups also participated in this year's unrest in January, during which thousands of people were killed, including security forces, armed anti-government rioters, and civilians. 

After the US-Israeli war erupted in February, Iraqi-based, Iranian Kurdish militias came under heavy missile and drone attacks – from both Tehran and its allies in the Iraqi resistance. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 19:40

"A Breakthrough": White House Says Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Announcement Is Imminent

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The White House is on the verge of a formal announcement on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — and the official leading the charge says the hard part is done.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, told an interviewer this week that the administration has cleared a major legal hurdle in standing up the reserve. 

“We’ll have an announcement,” Witt said.

“I wish I could say more… It’s a breakthrough as far as getting everything in place, legally sound, properly safeguarding the assets.” 

The signal follows a similar declaration Witt made at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, where he told the crowd an update was coming within weeks.

President Trump signed the executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on March 6, 2025.

Since then, Witt says his deputy Harry John has driven the interagency process: identifying what legal authorities exist, commissioning the necessary legal memos, and building a custody and reporting infrastructure across federal agencies that were designed for gold, not private keys. 

The reserve holds an estimated 328,372 BTC — roughly 1.6% of total global supply — accumulated through law enforcement seizures, including the Silk Road takedown, the 2022 Bitfinex hack recovery, and years of criminal forfeitures. 

The executive order bars the Treasury from selling a single coin.

A government bitcoin hack lit a fire for the U.S. government

Witt pointed to a breach at the U.S. Marshals Service as proof that the reserve’s security mandate is urgent. A government contractor named John Daghita allegedly stole more than $46 million in cryptocurrency from USMS custody accounts in late 2025, and the FBI arrested him in March 2026. A separate $24 million theft was traced to October 2024. 

“It’s a case in point for why it was so necessary that the president established the SBR,” Witt said.

An executive order dies the moment a new president takes office. That vulnerability is the core argument for two bills now moving through Congress.

Rep. Nick Begich recently rebranded the BITCOIN Act as the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA), which would authorize the U.S. Treasury to purchase up to 200,000 BTC per year for five years — with holdings locked for a minimum of 20 years.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has put Congress on a deadline, pushing for a vote before the summer recess as midterm campaigning begins to consume floor time. 

If the BITCOIN Act passes, the Treasury’s first open-market Bitcoin purchase is projected for Q4 2026 — making the U.S. the first sovereign nation to actively accumulate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 19:15

"Need Solidarity , Not Stigma": African Officials Say US Ebola-Related Restrictions Unnecessary

The U.S. government on May 18 said it will not let people without U.S. passports enter the United States if they have been to African countries affected by, or close to, a new Ebola outbreak within the past 21 days.

As Zachary Stieber reports for The Epoch Times, the countries are Uganda, Congo, and South Sudan, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a public health order.

The order, signed by acting CDC Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, suspends the right of people from those countries to enter the United States because of “the serious risk posed by the introduction of Ebola disease into the United States by covered aliens based on the emergent outbreak of Ebola disease” in Congo.

The public health order will be in effect for 30 days, according to the CDC.

Federal law enables the CDC to prohibit entry by certain migrants if officials judge that barring their entry will prevent the “introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries.”

U.S. officials also said they are going to step up public health screening and monitoring of other travelers who have arrived from areas affected by the outbreak. Screening includes identifying symptoms such as fever and analyzing possible exposure history.

“At this time, CDC assesses the immediate risk to the general U.S. public as low, but we will continue to evaluate the evolving situation and may adjust public health measures as additional information becomes available,” the public health agency said in a statement.

One American who was in Congo has tested positive for Ebola, and six others were exposed, CDC officials said in a briefing on May 18.

African officials on May 15 first confirmed the outbreak in Congo, reporting 80 confirmed and suspected deaths, and hundreds of confirmed and suspected infections.

The outbreak has since spread to Uganda, and South Sudan borders the region in Congo where many of the cases have been recorded.

The World Health Organization has declared a public health emergency of international concern over the situation, in part because the organization said there were “significant uncertainties to the true number of infected persons and geographic spread associated with this event at the present time.”

The virus behind the outbreak, the Bundibugyo virus, has no vaccine or specific treatment.

Dr. Satish Pillai, the CDC’s manager for Ebola response, told reporters on a call on May 18 that the outbreak is “a highly fluid situation” and that the CDC’s response includes deploying experts to the region as well as helping authorities in Africa attempt to prevent further infections and trace contacts of confirmed cases.

African Officials Say US Ebola-Related Restrictions Unnecessary

Stieber goes to report that African officials said on May 19 that travel restrictions imposed by the U.S. government over fears that Ebola could enter the United States are unnecessary and counterproductive.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said “travel restrictions and border closures are not the solution to outbreaks” and called on countries to refrain from imposing such restrictions.

“The world must avoid repeating the mistakes of previous health emergencies, where fear-driven measures caused major economic damage without delivering proportionate public health benefits,” the public health agency said.

“Africa needs solidarity, not stigma. Africa needs investment, not isolation. Africa needs partnerships that strengthen both economies and health systems. No one is safe until Africa is safe.”

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at an unrelated event on Monday that he was concerned about Ebola.

Heidi Overton, deputy director of the White House Domestic Policy Council, said during the event that there are “no cases of Ebola in America.”

“We want to keep it that way, and we are doing everything we can to support Americans in the region,” she added.

Congolese authorities said on Tuesday that there are more than 130 suspected deaths and more than 500 suspected cases linked to the outbreak.

The organization said that international officials should improve communication on risk, invest more in surveillance and infection prevention, accelerate the development of vaccines, and expand laboratory testing for the Bundibugyo virus.

Case fatality rates from past outbreaks caused by the virus have ranged from 30 percent to 50 percent, according to the World Health Organization.

“In the absence of a vaccine, there are many other measures countries can take to stop the spread of the virus and save lives, even without medical countermeasures, including risk communication and community engagement,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the organization, told the 79th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 18:50

Americans Are Getting Behind On Their Debts At A Very Frightening Pace

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

U.S. households are now 18.79 trillion dollars in debt. In 1980, U.S. households were just 1.4 trillion dollars in debt. Over the past several decades we have witnessed a household debt binge that is unlike anything that we have ever witnessed in our entire history. But if consumers could handle that debt load, there wouldn’t be such a high level of concern. Unfortunately, just like we witnessed prior to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Americans are getting behind on their debts at a staggering rate. This isn’t going to end well, but of course many of you know that already.

The latest numbers published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show that delinquency rates for auto loans, student loans and credit card debt have all soared to very alarming levels…

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) published new data showing that the share of Americans behind on a range of household consumer debts reached all-time highs in the first quarter of 2026. As the nation hurdles toward an historical record of $19 trillion in total household debt, Americans saw the highest rates of auto loan delinquency that FRBNY has ever recorded, rates of credit card delinquency near those last seen at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, and student loan delinquency at its worst since before the COVID-era payment pause.

Thanks to our accelerating cost of living crisis, most U.S. households are barely scraping by from month to month these days.

So if you are feeling financially squeezed right now, I want you to know that you are not alone.

As financial pressure rises, an increasing number of households are reaching a breaking point.

As a result, we are beginning to witness a tsunami of delinquencies…

While families took on more debt, they also fell behind. Credit card delinquency rates are now the highest they have been in 16 years (13.1 percent). Overall student loan delinquency rates soared to 10.3 percent, the highest recorded since 2020. Significantly more student loan borrowers are also entering serious delinquency, with their loans more than 90 days past due (10.9 percent) compared to the first quarter of 2025 (8.0 percent). In fact, delinquency rates have increased for all credit types tracked by the FRBNY since the final quarter of 2025.

Those figures are deeply troubling.

And I haven’t even mentioned mortgages yet.

In April, there were more than 42,000 foreclosure filings…

New data released by real estate analytics firm ATTOM found that 42,430 properties nationwide received foreclosure filings in April 2026, including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions.

Is that a high number?

Yes, it is.

In fact, it is 18 percent higher than last year’s very high figure for the month of April…

Foreclosure filings across the US have surged 18 percent compared to last year in a troubling sign that mounting financial pressure is beginning to hit homeowners.

It is a red flag that is reminiscent of the foreclosure spike in the run up to the 2008 Great Recession – that financial pressure is mounting for thousands of families.

Many of you clearly remember that we experienced a growing wave of foreclosures well before the financial markets started to crash in late 2008.

It was obvious that the housing bubble was crashing way in advance, and we can see the same thing happening again.

In Seattle, the number of homes listed for sale is nearly twice the usual figure, and prices are beginning to fall…

There are 8,630 homes listed for sale across the Seattle metro right now. In a normal April, there are about 4,600.

Nick Gerli, CEO of the real estate analytics firm Reventure, posted that data on Sunday on X. His read: Seattle’s housing market is going through a historic inventory shock, driven by layoffs, historic unaffordability, and outbound migration. King County values are already down 2.5% year over year. Prices are falling, and a typical listing is still right around $1 million, with a monthly mortgage payment of $7,000 to $8,000. That’s $84,000 to $96,000 a year just on the mortgage. The median household income across the Seattle metro is about $112,000 before taxes. After federal and state deductions, that household is taking home somewhere around $85,000 to $90,000. The mortgage alone consumes virtually all of it.

The market is cracking. Regular people still can’t afford to buy.

Yes, the market in Seattle is most definitely cracking.

And the same thing could be said about dozens of other markets all over the nation.

It is inevitable that home prices will fall because we have reached a point where most of the population simply cannot afford a typical mortgage payment.

In our “K-shaped economy”, those at the very top have been thriving while the vast majority of the country has been deeply struggling.

Sadly, there are a lot of young adults out there that have simply stopped trying.

This is particularly true for young men, and the numbers clearly show that millions upon millions of them have chosen to drop out of the labor force…

The Department of Labor keeps careful track of employment and the demographics thereof. Their latest report on men in the labor force is both mysterious and deeply alarming. It turns out that the labor force is missing about 7 million men who would otherwise be working. Close to a third of working-age men have vanished from the labor force.

The labor force participation rate among “prime age men,” age 25 to 54, in the 1950s approached 100 percent. Now it is 89 percent, meaning roughly 11 percent are not in the labor force (neither working nor looking for work).

Among all men over 16 years of age, the rate is a devastatingly low 66 percent, so about one-third are gone. Among U.S.-born men, nearly 22 percent are gone.

This is really quite shocking.

We really do have a national crisis on our hands.

The number of homeless Americans is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

The number of drug addicts in our country is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

So many people have been falling through the cracks in the system, and it seems to get worse with each passing year.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of households are falling behind on their debts and America’s middle class is steadily shrinking.

All of the long-term trends are taking us in the wrong direction, and it appears that our economic problems will only accelerate during the months ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:20

Memorial Day Gas Demand Surge Collides With Hormuz Shock As $5 Demand-Destruction Line Nears

Drivers heading into Memorial Day weekend are set to face some of the highest regular gasoline prices at the pump in years.

With the U.S. national average sitting at $4.53 per gallon (according to AAA data) and no resolution yet on a U.S.-Iran peace deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pump prices risk rising even higher into the holiday weekend as the summer driving season begins.

Let's start with the chart of the day: AAA retail gas prices in the U.S. on a seasonal basis closely track the 2022 run, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict was in its first several months.

Gas prices in 2022 did not top out until mid-June.

The impending problem, with no near-term Hormuz resolution, as JPMorgan analysts recently warned, is that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked into June.

Former CIA analysts and current RBC commodities head Helima Croft told clients days ago that she is "very skeptical of a June grand reopening or even that maritime traffic will return to February 27 levels for the foreseeable future."

AAA Retail Gas Price Map

For Memorial Day 2026, AAA forecasts around 39.1 million Americans will travel by car, representing 87% of all holiday travelers. That will create a meaningful near-term lift in gas demand, especially from Thursday through Monday.

EIA notes that gas demand typically rises into the summer driving season, while last year's Memorial Day period coincided with the highest weekly implied gas demand of 2025 up to that point.

So, in an already tight gas market, a busy Memorial Day driving weekend can certainly pull more barrels through the system, support pump prices, and may only lead to higher prices if no Hormuz resolution is found in the near term. The demand destruction level sits around $5.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:40

Third Iran-Linked 'Shadow Fleet' Tanker Seized By US Navy Off South Asia

Update(1500ET): A WSJ report Tuesday afternoon has revealed that the US seized an "Iran-linked ship" in the Indian Ocean overnight, which had not previously been revealed, at a moment President Trump is threatening to resume airstrikes on Iran, but has given a few more 'days' for Tehran to come to the table.

"The tanker, called Skywave, was sanctioned by the US in March for its role in transporting Iranian oil," the report says. These kind of high seas interdictions are happening with semi-regularity at this point, especially in waters of south and southeast Asia. The report details:

Ship-tracking data showed it sailing just west of Malaysia on Tuesday after transiting the Malacca Strait. The ship was likely loaded with more than a million barrels of crude at Iran’s Kharg Island in February, according to brokers and data from Lloyds List Intelligence. 

It marks at least the third time the U.S. has seized an oil tanker in connection with its crackdown of Iran-linked shadow-fleet vessels.

Meanwhile, also on Tuesday VP JD Vance had a meeting with the president related to the Iran crisis, and engaged in another testy exchange with the media:

COLLINS: You last week denied that the president said he was not taking Americans' financial situation into consideration when he's making decisions on the Iran war. He's since said it again, calling it a 'perfect statement.'

VANCE: See Kaitlan, what you did is you… pic.twitter.com/FFy9MTUkQ9

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 19, 2026

*  *  *

Update(1140ET): President Trump has on Tuesday while fielding questions from reporters repeated his line that Iran is 'begging' for a deal. "They're begging to make a deal. I hope we don't have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit. We may have to give them another big hit. You'll know very soon."

His threat to give them another "big hit" was coupled with the assertion that he was just one hour away from ordering new attacks on Iran Monday, but was asked by Gulf allies to given diplomacy just a little longer:

Trump: "I was an hour away" from striking Iran on Monday.

There was also the below moment where he again talked timeline, saying he's ready to resume military action in a few 'days' if Iran doesn't comply:

Reporter: How many days does Iran have to come to the table?

Trump: Two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Maybe early next week. A limited period of time. pic.twitter.com/yAAfv2jR20

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 19, 2026

Iran for its part says it stands ready to "confront aggression" and remains in a high state of military alert.

Also, tensions with nearby Gulf states are still soaring, and amid reports that drones have recently been launched from Iraqi territory - likely the work of Shia paramilitary organizations which are closely allied with Iran.

(Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates' Defence Ministry said on Tuesday that a drone that caused a fire at its nuclear power plant on Sunday had been launched from Iraq.

Emirati officials have said the UAE has the full right to respond to such "terrorist attacks". https://t.co/Skv8LEkkRy

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) May 19, 2026

*  *  *

In a huge and unexpected announcement, amid stalled US-Iran peace talks - which have proven a failure and illusive thus far, NATO now says it could deploy military assets to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Per breaking newswires Tuesday late morning:

NATO TO CONSIDER HORMUZ DEPLOYMENT IF STRAIT NOT OPEN BY JULY

President Trump has continuously chastised the NATO alliance for being largely bankrolled by Washington but at the same time fence-sitting when it comes to forming a coalition to patrol and reopen the vital energy transit waterway. Oil plummeted on the initial headline, seeing in it a positive for the potential that crude transit in the Persian Gulf could again be opened up soon:

And Bloomberg freshly reports:

NATO is discussing the possibility of helping ships pass through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if the waterway isn’t reopened by early July, according to a senior official in the military alliance.

The idea has support from several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but doesn’t yet have the necessary unanimous support, said a diplomat from a NATO country. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Leaders from NATO countries will meet in Ankara July 7-8.

But July feels very far away at this point, and anything could happen between now and then, as Washington continues to threaten renewed military action, and Iran says it remains on high alert.

NATO defense chiefs are meeting this week, where also high on the agenda will be the following:

At this week's summit, military chiefs from all 32 member states will examine the impact that consistent rapid consumption may have on NATO's collective capabilities and deterrent power as Russia continues to threaten allies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:04

Nigeria Needs New Export Markets As UAE's Exit Rattles OPEC

By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com

Nigeria should market its crude oil to new buyers as the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC is dislocating the balance that the cartel and the OPEC+ group have been seeking for years, according to Wole Ogunsanya, chairman of the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN).

The official urged Nigeria’s state oil and gas firm NNPC and other producers of Nigerian crude to tap new markets.

“When OPEC gives you a quota, it’s left for you to find who is going to buy it,” Nigerian outlet This Day quoted Ogunsanya as saying.

“And we have one of the best crude oil in the world. So we need NNPC and all producers to market Nigerian production,” the official added.

The abrupt exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC and OPEC+ would disrupt the balance the groups have been keeping for years, according to Ogunsanya.

“The decision by the UAE, which they have a sovereign right to do, is for their country’s interest. Our opinion is that it’s going to cause a dislocation of that equilibrium, the ability of OPEC and OPEC+, to manage the price of oil,” he added.

The UAE quit OPEC effective May 1 to pursue its national interests after years of quarreling with fellow cartel members over output quotas and their share of total production capacity.

For years, the UAE has been working to boost its crude oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027. The UAE insisted that it should be allowed in the OPEC and OPEC+ production deals to actually use more of its growing spare capacity. The country, alongside Saudi Arabia, is one of the few in the region – and the world – that held spare production capacity before the Middle East conflict began.

Nigeria, for its part, has struggled to pump to its quota in recent years as sabotage often led to force majeure at major export streams. However, with a recent crackdown on oil theft and sabotage in the Niger Delta, Nigeria has managed to increase crude production and aims for further growth by 2030.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:00

The Democrats Are About To Destroy John Fetterman

John Fetterman has become the most interesting politician in America, and the Democratic Party’s most uncomfortable mirror. His willingness to speak honestly, vote his conscience, and refuse to define himself purely in opposition to President Donald Trump has made him a hero to some and a traitor to others. 

Back in March, he declared the party had no real leader except Trump Derangement Syndrome. Democrats, according to Fetterman, are so consumed with opposing President Donald Trump that they've failed to construct a coherent agenda of their own. That's not a fringe critique. It's a fairly accurate description of where the opposition party stands as we head toward the 2026 midterms. 

Last week, Sen. John Fetterman wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post making the case that he'd make a terrible Republican, and he's right. He's pro-choice, firmly behind legal marijuana, a committed supporter of LGBT rights, a staunch defender of SNAP benefits, and a reliable friend to organized labor. His overall voting record is overwhelmingly aligned with the Democratic caucus.

“It wasn’t long ago when Democrats wanted a secure border. I voted on an immigration bill in 2024 to make sure an influx the size of Pittsburgh doesn’t come through the border like it did under the previous administration,” he wrote. “I have co-sponsored legislation to stop the flow of fentanyl. I was the lead Democrat on the Laken Riley Act, and I strongly believe that someone who comes here illegally and commits a violent crime should be deported. Full stop.”

He noted how his party used to oppose government shutdowns because they put “American livelihoods at risk” and held workers “hostage.” Yet, he stood alone as a Democrat when he voted to end his party’s recent shutdowns, saying he “took no pleasure in voting against my party” but felt that keeping “the lights on” for TSA, homeland security, airports, and “everyday Americans” mattered more than “partisan games.” 

As far as he’s concerned, his occasional departures on border security, crime, and Israel are a sign of his party becoming more extreme, not him becoming more conservative.

In a recent conversation on Reason's Reason Interview podcast with Nick Gillespie, Fetterman was asked to reflect on how his politics had changed since he backed Bernie Sanders in 2016. His answer cut to the heart of the Democratic Party's ongoing identity crisis. "Well, I mean, you know, in 2016, it was much more about the minimum wage and some other very basic kinds of things," he said. "And now that's just turned into much more standing with Cuba, standing with Venezuela, standing with the Iranian regime, and turned that into much more becoming more increasingly anti-American for me. So my views really haven't changed that much." The punchline came shortly after: "What's really changed is the party."

That is a sitting Democratic senator describing his own party's base as "increasingly anti-American,” and describes himself as lonely inside the party he still agrees with over 90 percent of the time. And how has the party responded to one of its more prominent voices offering this kind of candid self-assessment? 

By quietly beginning to show him the door.

A report from Punchbowl News last month made it quite clear how his party sees him. Pennsylvania Democrats on Capitol Hill wouldn't commit to supporting a Fetterman reelection bid, and none would explicitly endorse him. Rep. Brendan Boyle, who is rumored to be eyeing a 2028 Senate run himself, said he'd "be very surprised if [Fetterman] ran in the Democratic primary." Rep. Chris Deluzio, also said to be interested in the seat, acknowledged "serious disagreements" with Fetterman over the war in Iran, before adding a diplomatic "we'll see what comes after '26." Rep. Summer Lee simply said of Fetterman seeking reelection, “Up to him. At his own peril."

That's the kind of language you use for someone the party has already written off. And clearly they have. He still votes with Democrats more than 90 percent of the time. And yet Pennsylvania Democrats won't even give him a courtesy endorsement for a future Senate bid. 

Democratic voters in Pennsylvania aren’t any more forgiving.

A February Quinnipiac poll found that Fetterman sits at 46 percent approval among Pennsylvania voters overall. This isn’t great, but the partisan breakdown is most interesting: he’s underwater 62%–22% among Democrats, while running 74%–18% among Republicans. 

As far as the party's progressive base goes, anything less than 100% compliance isn't enough, especially when you break with the party on issues like Israel, immigration, or anything that can be characterized as insufficiently hostile to the right. Fetterman's independent streak might help him win a general election, but it won’t help him win a Democratic primary. 

That's the trap, and he appears to know it.

He's made it quite clear he won't become a Republican. His op-ed was practically a manifesto on the subject. But a man who describes himself as "lonely" inside his own party, who watches that party signal it won't back him for reelection, has a big decision to make. Will he try to win reelection as a Democrat, become an independent, or not run at all? One thing is for sure: his future inside the Democratic Party is already closed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 14:40

Iran's Floating Oil Stockpile Jumps 65% As U.S. Naval Blockade Bites

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The volumes of Iranian oil stored at tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz have jumped in recent weeks as Iran considers ways to circumvent the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman aimed at choking Iranian oil exports.

The number of tankers laden with crude but sitting in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz has jumped since the U.S. initiated in the middle of April a naval blockade to prevent Iranian oil exports and force Tehran into a deal, a Financial Times analysis of shipping and satellite imagery data showed on Tuesday.

Data from the U.S.-based non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) showed that the number of tankers in the Gulf laden with Iranian crude and petrochemicals has now jumped to 49, up from 29 before the U.S. blockade began on April 13.

Separately, UANI and FT have identified more than a dozen tankers clustered near the Iranian port Chabahar outside the Strait of Hormuz but within the line of the U.S. blockade.

Ship-tracking and maritime intelligence analyses pointed three weeks ago that Iranian tankers laden with oil were loitering in a cluster near the port of Chabahar. The cluster signals that Iran continues to load oil on Iranian tankers that are trying to leave the Middle East region. On the other hand, the piling up of ships outside the Strait of Hormuz but inside the U.S. blockade line suggests that the American interception of vessels is working.

Tanker Tally at Iran’s Kharg Island Hits Post-Blockade Peak: BBG

Running out of tankers to store oil.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 18, 2026

About 42 million barrels of Iranian crude are now sitting on Iranian tankers, many of these old vessels, in the Middle East, a 65% surge compared to the beginning of the war, per Kpler estimates cited by FT.

Loadings at Kharg Island, Iran’s key export port, have come to a standstill, maritime intelligence firm Windward said in a report last week.

“At the same time, dark tanker concentrations across northern Hormuz, eastern Hormuz, and Chabahar indicate that Iran is increasingly relying on protected holding zones to buffer export capacity and manage outbound flows,” Windward’s analysts said.

“Persistent ship-to-ship transfer activity, bunkering operations, and prolonged dark anchorage behavior reinforce indications that covert cargo-transfer and sanctions evasion operations are expanding inside Iranian territorial waters.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 14:20

Iran Now Has More Incentive To Resist US Demands, Even If War Restarts: Israeli Think Tank

At this point even hawkish Israeli think tank pundits are increasingly admitting that Iran currently has certain leverage and an edge when it comes to dealing with the United States, and the so far stalled and failed peace talks to end the war.

President Trump has just described that he called off planned renewed airstrikes on Iran, at the request of Gulf allies - who claim efforts toward getting back to the table and reaching a deal are close, despite that Iran's position on its nuclear program has not budged. 

Shutterstock/US Navy

When the White House first initiated Operation Epic Fury, it was hyped as presenting the opportunity for a clean tactical victory likely to result in swift regime change (Venezuela-style); however, it has officially morphed into yet another classic, grinding Washington Mideast dilemma - just as critics loudly warned would happen.

President Trump now finds himself boxed into a high-stakes corner with no easy exit ramp in sight - he can appear 'weak' through inaction, or pursue escalation and potential quagmire with likely disastrous economic and political consequences at home. In such situations each new and 'next' military action which gets presented as a 'way forward' actually often serves to make a conflict more unpredictable, sinking the US into a deeper escalation trap.

And now enter aforementioned Israeli think tank hawks. Raz Zimmt, the Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), has pointed out that Trump's pull-back from 'planned' new airstrikes will leave Tehran leaders with some clear conclusions. It should be remembered that the INSS, which is affiliated with Tel Aviv University, is Israel's most premier defense establishment think tank.

"Whether or not it was indeed requested to do so by the rulers of the Gulf states, Tehran draws two main conclusions this morning from the president's statement," Zimmt, whose work is often promoted by Axios Barak Ravid, began in a thread on X (machine translated).

Here's how the Israel-based pundit lays it out (emphasis ZH):

A. It has once again been proven that Trump is not interested in war. From Tehran's perspective, this does not mean there will be no war, and therefore it is preparing for a resumption of hostilities. However, this strengthens its perception that the fear in the US and the Gulf of the consequences of renewing the campaign outweighs the fear in Iran.

B. It is impossible (and this too, of course, is not a new insight in Tehran) to rely on any word coming from Trump's mouth or keyboard in his endless frenzy. Therefore, not only must it refrain from agreeing to concessions that amount to capitulation to US demands—for example, forgoing nuclear capabilities, such as enrichment infrastructure, and not just the products of the program, such as uranium enriched to 60%—but it must continue to insist, already in the first stage, on security and economic guarantees: a complete end to the war, easing of sanctions or unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets, and management arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz that express recognition of Iran's control over the strait. And the problem is that it is doubtful whether this perception will change even in a scenario of renewed hostilities, unless a way is found to incorporate within its framework an action or actions that succeed in denying or significantly weakening one of the two cards in Iran's hand: control of Hormuz and the nuclear assets.

President Trump on Monday actually said "hopefully, maybe forever" when asked about the decision to delay the Iran attack. This was certainly not missed in Tehran.

A Trump-Iran pattern?

• Wed: Iran wants a deal. They called us
• Thu: We are looking at proposals
• Fri: We might be close. Very close
• Sat.: Iran knows what to do
• Sun: OBLITERATION. TOTAL. COMPLETE. They have 24 hrs.
• Mon. : The storm is coming
• Tue.: I’m giving it…

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) May 18, 2026

Meanwhile, as of Tuesday Reuters is reporting that the five key elements of Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war include the following:

• US troops leaving areas close to Iran
• The US paying war reparations
• Lifting sanctions on Iran
• Release Iran's frozen assets
• Ending the US blockade

And so both sides continue to insist on not moving away from their initial demands and conditions, with barely any compromise visible, in a perpetuation of the zero sum game and standoff, also as the Hormuz Strait continues to be de facto blocked to the vast majority of maritime transit.

*  *  *

Latest Tuesday developments via Newsquawk...

• US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
• US President Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
• US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
• US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and US forces exiting areas close to Iran are also included in the proposal.
• Iranian Parliament spokesperson said Tehran is working on a legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby reported.
• US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
• Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran's forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
• Iranian Supreme Leader's military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran's armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
• Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon's warning that Iran is strengthening its air defenses, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
• Unknown explosions last night in Bab al-Mandeb Strait halted vessel traffic for two hours, Far News reported. Sources cited note of "unusual silence" from global maritime and insurance authorities.
• Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 13:20

New York Governor Signs Bills To Preserve Mandatory Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has signed legislation to preserve vaccine requirements for children.

Hochul, on May 15, signed two bills that decouple New York’s vaccine requirements from the federal government, after the Trump administration rolled back recommendations for hepatitis B and other vaccines.

“When public health comes under attack by an anti-science administration, New York fights back,” Hochul, a Democrat, said in a statement.

She added that the legislation “protects access to lifesaving vaccines for New Yorkers of all ages.”

One bill, Assembly Bill 10711, removes language about vaccines needing to be approved by federal regulators. Instead, it says that children must receive vaccines against measles, hepatitis B, and other diseases “in accordance with regulations issued by the commissioner of health of New York.”

Assembly Bill 10710, the other piece of legislation, requires health insurers to cover vaccines recommended by New York’s health commissioner, even if the shots are not recommended by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

New York has, in the past, only mandated vaccines approved and recommended by federal health agencies.

“Vaccines remain one of the greatest public health tools in history, protecting individuals, families, and entire communities from serious and preventable diseases,” New York Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald said in a statement.

“At a time when misinformation is undermining confidence in science, this legislation reinforces New York State’s commitment to following trusted medical guidance and keeping New Yorkers healthy.”

The Trump administration has narrowed its recommendations for vaccines against several diseases, including COVID-19, hepatitis B, and rotavirus.

The biggest changes came after President Donald Trump issued an order directing officials to review recommendations from other countries and update U.S. recommendations as appropriate in light of the results of the review.

A federal judge in mid-March blocked the updates, concluding that officials did not follow proper procedure when altering the vaccine recommendations.

The Trump administration has appealed.

New York Democratic lawmakers who authored or voted for the bills Hochul signed hailed the development.

“In an era where federal health officials are undermining scientific integrity and sowing skepticism about lifesaving vaccines, New York is making the conscious choice to champion our medical professionals and reaffirm this state’s commitment to the evidence-based practices that have safeguarded communities for generations,” New York Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said in a statement.

Children’s Health Defense, an organization founded by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was among the groups that opposed the legislation.

Michael Kane, director of advocacy for Children’s Health Defense, told The Epoch Times previously that one of the bills would enable the state to require experimental vaccines, as it removed language stating that vaccines needed federal approval.

“It would also allow for foreign entities to determine what vaccines our children must take,” Kane said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 13:00

Flatbed Truck Rates Hit New Highs As These Drivers Fuel Boom

Flatbed trucking conditions have never looked stronger, with spot rates surging to record highs amid a mix of tightening capacity and rising industrial freight demand.

"Flatbed trucking rates have hit a new all-time high as industrial demand and a crackdown on bad actors continue to shape trucking economics," said FreightWaves founder Craig Fuller.

Fuller added, "It is a great time to be a compliant trucker in America."

There are two drivers behind why U.S. flatbed spot trucking rates (via SONAR Flatbed Truckload Index) have surged to $4.21 per mile, well above the index’s $2.87 average and to record highs:

• Data center and AI infrastructure boom, which is driving higher volumes of steel, transformers, generators, construction materials, and other open-deck freight;

• And the crackdown on foreign truck drivers, which is shrinking the available labor pool and tightening capacity further, is creating a more favorable pricing backdrop for American owner-operators.

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that freight brokers now face state-law negligent hiring claims when they hire unsafe trucking firms that later cause crashes. This came after a series of deadly crashes nationwide, with some of these drivers being illegal aliens who were unable to read English.

BREAKING: 3 kiIIed in California by an illegal alien truck driver, Jashanpreet Singh. Singh entered in 2022, was released by Biden.

pic.twitter.com/csrKmjTRsD

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 23, 2025

There are reports that freight brokers are no longer hiring foreign truck drivers.

It took less than 24 hours for brokers to tighten the belt after the Supreme Court ruled that brokers could be held liable for carrier accidents WOW!

#Truckers #trucking #truckinglife @topfans pic.twitter.com/MEnvzcKkar

— GRANDPA’s FREE ADVICE (@GOP_is_Gutless) May 16, 2026

The combination of surging industrial demand and the reduction in foreign drivers is finally driving higher rates after mom-and-pop American truckers endured years of overcapacity that pushed rates to nearly unaffordable levels.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:40

US Dept Of War Suspends Permanent Joint Board On Defense With Canada

Authored by 'sundance' via The Last Refuge,

Remarkably, many news articles are citing confusion in trying to understand why U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby, announced the suspension of U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada.

However, the announcement comes immediately after his meeting with U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon and the comment, “we’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense.”

The issue, as outlined by Undersecretary Colby, centers around Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent statements in antagonism toward the U.S., a public announcement that Canada would not be purchasing U.S. military equipment and the biggest issue of all, that Canada is not living up to the NATO defense spending agreements.

It was in December of 2024, immediately after the November election where Donald Trump won, when then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago for dinner with President Trump and told him there’s no way that Canada could meet their NATO obligations. 

Canada had relied on the USA to provide all national defense and was 16th in defense spending at 1.1% of GDP. {CITATION}

The issue of NATO compliance was part of a larger discussion around trade imbalances, non-tariff barriers, intellectual property conflicts and legislative hurdles that Canada used as a crutch to retain economic benefit without reciprocity.

Trudeau was arguing that Canada could not change all the points of conflict, drop their non-tariff barriers, comply with NATO demands and simultaneously get into total alignment with the USMCA trade compact (CUSMA to Canada), because their climate policies did not support or match the heavy industrial processing capabilities of both the United States and Mexico.

This triggered President Trump to respond with the 51st state, notation. 

Essentially, if you cannot be a partner with equal capabilities; and if you need to retain structural economic dependency; then Canada should just become a 51st state of the USA.

Since that time, things went downhill quickly.  Instead of trying to find ways to eliminate points of conflict, Prime Minister Mark Carney began a campaign of aggressive anti-Trump narrative distribution in order to maximize domestic political benefits.

President Trump then turned toward Mexico and began working with USTR Jamieson Greer to construct what is essentially a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and Mexico.

The administration began ignoring Canada, planning instead to announce the upcoming dissolution of the USMCA and then force Canada to negotiate a bilateral.  A jilted Canada then began doubling and tripling down on the anti-Trumpism, with Carney saying the era of trade between the USA and Canada is over.

Carney then reached out to Europe and China for trade replacement value and began making announcements about no longer purchasing U.S. manufactured fighter jets and military hardware.

U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby meets with U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, and obviously the NATO stuff is just the straw that ended the U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada.  Not a complicated timeline to figure out.

WASHINGTON – […] “A strong Canada that prioritizes hard power over rhetoric benefits us all,” Colby said.

“Unfortunately, Canada has failed to make credible progress on its defense commitments. DoW is pausing the Permanent Joint Board on Defense to reassess how this forum benefits shared North American defense.

“We can no longer avoid the gaps between rhetoric and reality. Real powers must sustain our rhetoric with shared defense and security responsibilities,” he continued. “Delivering on shared continental defense begins by recognizing our shared geography. Only by investing in our own defense capabilities will Americans and Canadians be safe, secure, and prosperous.”

It’s unclear why Colby made the announcement on Monday, given that Carney’s Davos speech was months ago.

Minutes before the announcement, Colby posted a photograph of himself meeting with the U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon, though he did not specify when the meeting took place.

“We’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense,” he wrote along with the photo. 

Carney’s relationship with President Donald Trump has fractured in recent months over several different issues, including the former’s address at Davos. (read more)

Every trade and economic associated agency within the Trump administration is in alignment, and the elimination of the USMCA with Canada is clearly at the end of this path. 

However, if you can find one in one-hundred Canadians who understand or accept this destination, I would be surprised. 

A mass formation psychosis has fallen upon the land of Canada, and the overwhelming majority of Canadians just repeat, “Trump bad.” 

It’s weird.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:20

Nickel Jumps As Indonesian Output Cut Stokes Supply Fears

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange surged as much as 2.6% to $19,050 a ton after Shanghai Metals Market said upwards of 15% of high-grade nickel pig iron capacity at Indonesia's Weda Bay Industrial Park will undergo rotational maintenance in the coming months, according to Bloomberg.

Indonesia's Weda Bay Industrial Park is one of the most important nickel-processing hubs in the world and serves a large cluster of smelters that produce nickel pig iron, a key input for stainless steel production.

Indonesia dominates global nickel supply, producing 2.6 million metric tons of nickel in 2025 out of a global total of 3.9 million tons, accounting for roughly two-thirds of global mine production.

So, the earlier news from SMM indicating a 10% to 15% reduction in NPI output from Weda Bay Industrial Park in the coming months, building on existing NPI reductions in March and April due to lower ore supplies and high costs, has easily sparked supply concerns on the LME ...

Nickel is extremely valuable and a critical industrial metal in the era of electrification and data center buildouts:

• Stainless steel, by far the largest demand center, where nickel improves corrosion resistance, strength, and heat tolerance.

• EV and energy-storage batteries, especially nickel-rich lithium-ion chemistries that increase energy density and driving range.

• Aerospace and military superalloys, including jet-engine turbine blades and high-temperature gas turbines.

• Industrial alloys, plating, and catalysts, used across machinery, chemicals, and corrosion-resistant equipment.

Let's not forget that sulfuric acid prices have surged amid the Hormuz disruption. This industrial chemical is used in nickel production, especially in Indonesia's battery-grade nickel supply chain.

The line in the sand for LME nickel futures is $20,000.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:05

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