Inflection Point Overload?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Inflection Point Overload? 

Between 250th Celebrations, heat waves, power failures, and jet lag, I feel more discombobulated than I have in a long time (I do admit that I really liked a sign that I think was in PHX airport just past security – Recombobulation Area). I think that’s what I could use.

In any case, last weekend’s ProSec Mid-Year Outlook is worth checking out. We had people send us several variations of the same theme – the concept is catching on for investors and corporations even if the name isn’t (yet). 

We also published our positive take on where Compute credit spreads are headed. “Compute” is meant to capture data centers, AI, and the entire ecosystem. We are a bit more focused on the corporate bond side of things, but there are implications and ramifications on the private and project finance/structured side of the world too. We are positive on the sector for a number of reasons and will be expanding on the rationale in the coming days (or weeks, as this week’s schedule of Berlin, Munich, Rome, Dublin, and Belfast may leave little time for typing). 

While the Iran conflict may seem to be at an inflection point (the risk of escalation is back on the table), we expect this is just a move to a riskier end of the current status quo, rather than a shift in how markets should be thinking about this conflict. However, it is important to note that the U.S. strategy, with the ceasefire having been declared “over,” is shifting to a priority of re-establishing deterrence. Neil Wiley from our GIG, the former Principal Executive in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that “Iran will calculate that they can strike when it suits, confident that they can comfortably endure whatever comes back at them. In this circumstance, there is fundamentally no deterrence. I am concerned that this is now where we find ourselves. Establishing or re-establishing deterrence requires, ironically, a very disproportionate response.” This is what we have seen this week with the third strikes being launched by the U.S. on Saturday in response to yet another Iranian attack on commercial shipping in the Strait. The U.S. has both shortened the time between Iranian attacks and its strikes and increased the magnitude of its retaliatory strikes in an effort to convince Iran that it is not in its best interest to continue these attacks. We will have to see if this has the intended effect, but the message is clear: the U.S. is now hitting Iran much harder than before for allowing the IRGC to attack ships in the Strait, even if it is just rogue elements of the IRGC conducting these attacks. 

Possible Inflection Points 

AI spending. This is the most important potential inflection point for the market and the economy. Is it slowing at all? Are there bottlenecks that will slow it, even if it doesn’t want to be slowed? The market seems to oscillate back and forth. While I think the answer remains to be determined, there are many stocks in the sector down well into double digits on a percentage basis in recent weeks, so maybe the market already answered the question and we can move on? We discuss this to some degree in both the Thursday report and last weekend’s report as well. 

• Earnings. I rarely focus on earnings. About 70% of companies will beat earnings and Wall Street (checks calendar) will act surprised for the 200th quarter running! But this time I will pay more attention than usual. Last quarter, earnings really seemed to be what turned the stock market around. We can argue and nitpick that it was possibly too few sectors that really drove the earnings story (lots participated, but there were some really positive outliers). More recently, a chip company’s earnings call set the stage for the latest rebound in tech as it convincingly laid out the case for strong demand, and more importantly, committed orders for years to come. I’m not about to go all in on understanding the earnings season dynamics, but I will be paying closer attention. It is nice that many companies will combine to determine how good earnings season is for the market (for a few quarters, it all seemed to hang on NVDA). 

Russia/Ukraine. Are we nearing an inflection point here? From “how are you dressed in my office” to “sure, we can set up a Patriot missile factory in your country,” the relationship between the President and Zelensky has changed. I can’t remember the last time the President played the “droog” card with Putin. A Clockwork Orange had many “slang” words (Nadsat) based on Russian words (some argue Ukrainian), so it seemed like an appropriate time to insert a reference. In any case, the war is changing. Russia is attacking Ukraine more heavily (dangerous for Ukraine, but likely a sign of things getting worse for Russia). Increasingly, Ukraine is being allowed to follow a military plan along the lines of what our GIG would have drawn up on day 1 (there have been restrictions on what they could do, even when they had the right hardware, on top of lack of access to some hardware). Trump hinted that the U.S. now has mineral stakes in Ukraine during his recent trip. If there is a peace deal of any sort, expect opportunities for investments in Russia and Ukraine. Expect Poland to be a staging ground for many U.S. operations (corporate, investment, and military) into both Ukraine and Russia. Peace doesn’t seem close, but with both sides having more firepower, as well as their own sets of difficulties, maybe we are nearing that time? 

Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade. 

Both times we had steep declines in the USD vs JPY, we saw U.S. equity markets sell off. The summer of 2024 was linked to the carry trade, while spring of 2025 was more about tariffs and Liberation Day. Is the yen going to continue to decline? By all accounts, betting against the yen, especially after recent attempts at intervention have failed, is a popular trade (dare I say, consensus?). The case for a weaker yen makes a lot of sense, but, as a contrarian, the opportunity for a rapid appreciation seems worth paying attention to, if not betting on. 

Crypto and DATCos. Digital Asset Treasury Companies have been both a blessing and a curse to crypto. The companies certainly provided a lot of support on the way up. Some DATCos do a lot with their crypto and are heavily involved in the infrastructure of the space. Others seem to be accumulation vehicles, where their sources of funds to accumulate have grown more complex. 

There is no arguing that this administration has been pro-crypto. The enthusiasm post-2024 election is obvious. The naming of the crypto czar and an accommodating regulatory environment helped push crypto to all-time highs. It has been a “dark” time since then. While headlines have generally been positive, crypto has struggled. In recent weeks, much of the selling has been attributed to MSTR selling bitcoin to fund some of its “debt” servicing requirements (really preferreds). The “security” best known as STRC ($STRC on Twitter) has been front and center in recent angst. That security seems to have bottomed as the Strategy team has announced several steps (changing the payment schedule, increasing the dividend, and selling a larger amount of crypto to raise more USD). Have they done enough to alleviate market fears? Is this an inflection point, where the market can move beyond the current needs of some DATCos and focus on potential upside from the administration continuing to embrace crypto? Or are we headed to new lows, despite that support, which would be scary? My expectation is that the bounce we’ve seen will be short-lived, as FOMO in crypto is almost gone (very few advisors not already allocated to crypto seem that excited about the prospect at the moment). And the gambling/get-rich-quick crowd has long since moved from crypto. Watch this market as the next leg is likely to be important for overall market sentiment/cash flows. 

Inflation. Our argument for expecting rate cuts before hikes and possibly as soon as September hinges on inflation. Yes, Warsh is watching inflation. But: 

• Inflation is coming down. The classic “magician” in the room. Warsh is an inflation hawk because he expects inflation to come down. 
• While we weren’t selected for the data source task force, by all accounts his selections to run the various task forces have been met with approval. Even with the announcement, it might be too early to expect a change in which data is deemed most important by September. Given the people picked, it may take longer to establish the committee and deliver findings than I hoped or expected. 

For our view on the path of rates, we need this to be true, and we are betting on it. The market definitely has a different perception (either on the path of inflation or on how much Warsh cares about inflation) than we do. 

Bottom Line 

While many might hope for a “sleepy” July, given how frantic this year has been, with so many key markets at possible inflection points, it seems like hoping for a dull summer is wishful thinking (for those hoping to take a break from the screens). This might be one of the most consequential earnings seasons that I can remember, let alone for a summer earnings season. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 15:10

With Dismissed Lawsuits And DOE Support, Holtec Delays Palisades Nuclear Plant Restart Further

Holtec announced last week that the major refurbishment projects at Palisades are complete.

Reactor vessel inspections, head penetration replacements, steam generator tube refurbishment, primary system decontamination, and operator training all wrapped up. New fuel now sits on site, ready for loading. The company called it a "watershed moment" and shifted focus to grinding through the remaining work.

Yet there is still no restart date…

     “Holtec International remains on track to restart operations at Palisades in October 2025”

These are the comments provided by a Utility Dive article in 2025 after they spoke with Holtec’s International Director of Government Affairs and Communications Patrick O’Brien.

Needless to say, that date has passed. Starting earlier this year, the company pivoted to the vaguer line that Palisades would restart "when the plant is ready for long-term operations." CEO Kris Singh told the Financial Times he still expects the plant back this year, ahead of the March 2027 power supply contract. But "this year" is now half over with no firm schedule attached.

When the $1.5 billion DOE loan closed in 2024, expectations centered on a late 2025 restart. As the first deadline came to pass near the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, material issues, particularly with steam generators, had pushed the target into the middle of 2026. 

Each update added a few more months. Now the language has softened further into "steady progress" and "when ready." More than 5,000 individual work activities remain on the checklist. Most are described as routine maintenance, testing, inspection, and operational readiness items. 

The legal and financial pieces have at least moved forward. A federal court dismissed the environmental groups' lawsuit challenging the NRC exemption that allows a decommissioned plant to restart. 

Holtec is also preparing an IPO that multiple outlets peg at a roughly $10 billion valuation.

Palisades was always presented as the easiest restart project on the table. An existing plant on an existing site, with a recently operating license framework, the first major DOE loan guarantee, and novel NRC regulatory pathways created specifically to enable it. If any restart should have translated funding, approvals, and major refurbishment work into electrons on the grid without prolonged slippage, this was the one. 

The repeated movement of internal targets and the current shift to “when the plant is ready for long-term operations” instead makes reactor restarts look more uncertain and execution-heavy than simply licensing and building a new plant from scratch. That undercuts the core industry argument that restarts represent the lowest-risk, fastest path to new nuclear capacity.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 14:35

Clashing Over Saylor, Strategy, And Bitcoin's Biggest Risks

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Sometimes the best conversations happen after an argument.

That's exactly what unfolded this week when I sat down with fund manager Larry Lepard for a discussion that almost never happened. After disagreeing earlier in the week over my criticism of Michael Saylor, Strategy, and the company's evolving Bitcoin strategy, we decided to hash it out publicly in a podcast/debate. Stupid thing to get in the way of a friendship, right?

The result wasn't a shouting match. It was a substantive debate between two people who actually agree on more than they disagree. We both remain skeptical of today's euphoric markets. We both think most of crypto outside of Bitcoin is likely worthless. And we both believe Bitcoin deserves to be taken seriously as a macro asset.

Where we disagree is on Strategy. My argument was never that the company is headed for an imminent collapse. In fact, I acknowledged that its new Bitcoin monetization framework, dedicated cash reserves, and more disciplined capital allocation likely buy the company significant time while improving financial flexibility.

My concern is with management credibility. Earlier this year Michael Saylor insisted Strategy would not become a Bitcoin seller. Today, the company has sold Bitcoin as part of its capital management strategy while shifting its messaging toward liquidity and balance sheet flexibility. I also questioned why "Bitcoin Yield," once heavily promoted by both Saylor and CEO Phong Le, has largely disappeared from public messaging now that the metric has become less favorable. To me, consistency matters, especially when investors are being asked to trust management.

Larry's response was that I'm confusing adaptation with deception. He argued management simply adjusted after learning where the market's tolerance for leverage actually sits. Rather than signaling distress, he believes the company's new emphasis on liquidity strengthens the business and reassures investors that dividend obligations remain easily manageable.

His broader point was that the balance sheet simply doesn't support the bearish narrative. With roughly $6 billion of debt against tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin holdings, Larry believes Strategy remains well insulated, even if Bitcoin suffers another major drawdown.

I pushed back by arguing that the entire bull case rests on assumptions continuing to hold. Bitcoin has never existed alongside equity markets this expensive, nor has there ever been a corporate treasury vehicle as large as Strategy simultaneously serving as one of the market's biggest buyers while now acknowledging it can also become a seller.

Leverage changes the equation. Every preferred issue, dividend obligation, and financing decision adds another layer that depends on Bitcoin continuing to appreciate over time. If Bitcoin performs as expected, those obligations remain manageable. If it doesn't, they become increasingly important.

Larry countered that I was overly focused on downside scenarios while overlooking Bitcoin's asymmetric upside. He pointed to prior drawdowns, increasing institutional adoption, ETF ownership, and long-term network growth as evidence that Bitcoin continues following the same path it always has.

One place we found plenty of common ground was on crypto more broadly. Larry argued most of the crypto ecosystem is ultimately worthless while Bitcoin increasingly resembles digital gold. I largely agreed, though I noted that a collapse elsewhere in crypto could still create broader risk-off pressure that spills over into Bitcoin and highly levered companies like Strategy.

The biggest takeaway wasn't who won the debate. It was that markets need more conversations like this. Healthy skepticism shouldn't automatically be confused with pessimism, and pointing out risks isn't the same as predicting disaster.

Larry remains convinced Strategy is one of the market's best long-term opportunities.I remain convinced that management credibility, leverage, and changing narratives deserve scrutiny. Reasonable people can disagree. That's exactly what made the conversation worth having.

Now you can watch the full debate 100% free and decide for yourself.

(WATCH THE FULL DEBATE, 100% FREE, HERE). 

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

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As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 14:00

"The Same Monstrous Theme... Collectivism"

Authored by The Federalist Papers Project (@TheFederalist1) via X,

Ayn Rand was right when she wrote these words, and she is still right now.

“Fascism, Nazism, Communism and Socialism are only superficial variations of the same monstrous theme: collectivism.”

That is the part too many people refuse to understand.

These systems may use different slogans.

They may wave different flags. They may promise different futures.

One may speak in the language of nationalism, another in the language of equality, another in the language of compassion, another in the language of revolution.

But underneath the branding, the heart of the thing is the same.

The individual is pushed aside. The family is weakened. Faith is mocked or controlled.

Property becomes conditional. Speech becomes dangerous. And the State becomes the final authority over your life.

That is collectivism.

It always starts with beautiful promises. Free this, fair that, justice for all, power to the people. But somehow, every time, the people end up with less power and the rulers end up with more.

Why anyone would want this in America is beyond my understanding.

The only explanation that makes sense is that generations have been trained not to recognize the pattern. They were taught to hate capitalism, distrust liberty, and look to government as the answer to every problem. That did not happen by accident.

A free people cannot stay free if they forget what freedom is.

That is why this warning matters.

Rand was not saying these systems are identical in every historical detail. She was saying they all lead back to the same ugly principle, the group over the person, the State over the citizen, the collective over the individual soul.

Different heads.

Same beast.

And once that beast gets inside a nation, it does not leave quietly.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 12:50

Mexican President Seeking Legal Action Against The US Over Deaths Of Alien Migrants

Should foreign governments be allowed to support or fund lawsuits against the US government over its immigration and enforcement policies?  US sovereign immunity aside, the very idea of foreigners trying to influence American immigration law through indirect civil suits sounds insane.  Why, oh why, should Americans care what Mexico thinks?

To put the issue in context, it's important to understand that the Mexican government has been actively encouraging and enabling mass illegal immigration into the US for decades.  This strategy accomplishes a few things simultaneously:

First, the southern border acts as a steam valve for poverty stricken malcontents and criminals.  Mexican leaders like to have the option of leaving the door open to citizens crossing illegally into the US en masse because this means less mouths to feed, less strain on social services and less crime for Mexico. 

Second, the Mexican economy relies heavily on foreign remittances.  Illegals from Mexico enter the US, work under the table, then wire around $64 billion back home every year.  Mexico's annual federal welfare programs cost only $57 billion per year.  In other words, remittances from migrants in the US are bigger than Mexico's entire welfare budget.

It has become increasingly clear since Donald Trump took office in 2025 that far too many third-world countries are using the US as a cash cow for their own national economies.  And, they have been doing this primarily through illegal immigration, or, work visa and refugee loopholes.  Without Trump's migrant crackdown, this problem may have never been exposed to the wider public. 

Third, mass immigration acts as a destabilizing element in US politics and economics.  There are many socialist elements within Mexico, not to mention Central and South America, who would like to quietly sabotage the US to make way for "La Raza" - An ideological movement of Hispanic activists that wants to invade and reconquer North America. 

They aren't satisfied with simply bleeding the US for a trickle of wealth.  Rather, like any group of barbarians at the gate, they want to pillage the entire country because they live under the delusion that they're "owed" something.  This agenda, of course, relies heavily on progressive politicians staying in power in the US, which is not currently the case. 

Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday that her government plans to file criminal complaints in the U.S. regarding ​Mexican citizens who have died in immigration custody or while being targeted in anti-immigration ‌operations. The goal is to escalate these complaints while supporting civil suits. Fourteen Mexican nationals have died while in the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and three more died in arrest operations conducted by the agency, the Mexican government said.

The latest incident in Houston involved an arrest which was disrupted by a Mexican migrant who was not the original target of the operation.  Agents report that the man tried to ram them with his van while they were looking for a different suspect.    

Lorenzo Araujo, a Mexican immigrant who had lived in the United States without authorization for 35 years, was on his way to work with three other men.  When agents tried to stop the vehicle, the encounter quickly escalated when he allegedly tried to run them over.  An agent shot Mr. Araujo in the abdomen. He died at a hospital hours later.  Suspects generally only end up dead when they present a physical threat to ICE agents.   

Mexico's president intends to exploit these events as a way to rally lawfare operations.  She seems to believe that she can leverage against deportation policies by burying the Trump Administration in litigation.  She's not alone.  Democrats are also using similar tactics while ignoring the circumstances of the shootings and the self defense of immigration agents. 

Democrat Rep. Al Green says Americans are obligated to give illegal aliens protection under the Constitution: "Mr. Arajo belongs to us! He should not receive any less attention from the Constitution that I or any of you would receive!" pic.twitter.com/3rW5DFgQoA

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) July 10, 2026

When it comes to deportations, illegal immigrants do not have the same constitutional protections as American citizens.  Due process for migrants only involves identifying them as legal or illegal.  If they are illegal, then they can and should be kicked out of the country with haste.  No trial.  No jury.  No wasted time or wasted taxpayer money.

It makes no sense that Democrats under the Biden Administration can open the borders to millions of illegals without any legal checks and balances, then they demand that the Trump Administration pursue years of court cases to remove just a handful.

Meanwhile, it's obvious that Mexico's government has every reason to subvert the deportation process.  By labeling it a "human rights violation" and creating a legal fog, the Mexicans, like the Democrats, are hoping they can stall the accelerating deportations so that their economy can continue to benefit from the parasitic relationship they have with the US. 

Mexico's only goal is to create as many obstacles as possible with the expectation that Democrats will eventually return to power and open the floodgates once again.  

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 12:15

'Witness List Expanding...': A Seth Rich Scenario

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"Witness list expanding in multi-conspiracy probe out of Fort Pierce. . . ."

- Paul Sperry, Real Clear investigations.

The scene: February of 2027, a federal courtroom in Fort Pierce (St. Lucie County), Florida, the third day of trial in the RussiaGate matter.

Defendants seated on the right (from the judge’s vantage) are so numerous they require two tables, including John Brennan, James Comey, James Clapper, Andrew McCabe, Rod Rosenstein, Strzok & Page, Bruce Ohr, Lisa Monaco, Mary McCord, Christopher Wray, Marc Elias, and seven other former federal officials.

Former President Barack Obama and former Sec’y of State Hillary Clinton, named as “unindicted co-conspirators,” are not present in the courtroom for the sake of decorum. Former MI6 agent, the slippery Christopher Steele, purveyor of the infamous “dossier,” is on-the-lam, whereabouts unknown. The charges against the bunch are Seditious Conspiracy (18 U.S. Code § 2384), Conspiracy to Obstruct Justice (18 U.S.C. §§ 1503, 1512, 1519), Conspiracy Against Rights / Deprivation of Rights Under Color of Law (18 U.S.C. §§ 241, 242), Perjury (18 U.S.C. § 1621), Concealment (18 U.S.C. § 1001).

At 10:00 a.m., a “surprise” witness is ushered into the room...

Gasps erupt from all angles.

The witness is immediately identified by his snow-white hair and beard. Everybody sees it is Julian Assange. He is a surprise witness for security reasons. He has been flown from Sydney to New Delhi to Frankfurt, and finally to Miami in a US government airplane, the lone passenger.

Recall: in June 2024, Assange reached a plea deal with the US DOJ: guilty on one count of conspiring to obtain and disclose classified US national defense information. He was sentenced to sixty-two months (time served), crediting the approximately five years he had already spent in Britain’s Belmarsh prison while fighting extradition — but not counting the six years and ten months he was holed-up before that in the Ecuadorian embassy in London. There was no additional jail time, supervision, or financial penalty.

Assange is sworn and seated, led through preliminary questions as to his identity, place of residence, his former occupation running the news service known as Wikileaks, blah blah. The prosecuting federal attorney will now turn to the subject of one Seth Rich — remember him? The twenty-seven-year-old was working for the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in 2016 as Voter Expansion Data Director. At 4:00 a.m. July 10, 2016, Rich was found dead, shot twice in the back, on Flagler Place NW, in the Bloomingdale neighborhood of Washington, D.C., in what police called “a botched robbery.”

Rather bizarrely from a police procedural standpoint, Rich’s wallet, stuffed with money, his watch, and his cell phone remained on his person. Only his laptop was taken in the “robbery.” It has been a “cold,” unsolved case all these years.

Sometime before the murder, as early as Spring 2016, well before the Democratic party’s nominating convention, Assange’s Wikileaks received a large packet of information containing as many as 58,000 emails hacked out of the account of John Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman. The emails detailed many curious machinations inside the DNC that year, including sketchy efforts underway to derail Clinton’s rival, Bernie Sanders, excerpts from Clinton’s paid private Wall Street speeches (e.g., to Goldman Sachs), references to Clinton’s health problems, her private email server issue, various Clinton foundation dealings, and a lot of strange chatter about “pizza” and other mundane food items that would eventually spawn the “PizzaGate” story alluding to alleged child sex cult activities centered around John Podesta and his brother Tony.

It was quite a juicy load. But Wikileaks sat on it until just before the election. That spring and summer, Hillary was already laboring under the scandal about the private email server she had set up in her suburban Chappaqua, NY, home. She had apparently used it casually when she ran the State Department to conduct official government business, including classified information, instead of her official government email address. That itself was against the law, apart from what else the content of the Podesta email trove revealed. The FBI had been working the server case that spring, and just weeks before the convention, FBI Director Jim Comey made a big public show of exonerating Hillary, declaring incorrectly that he declined to prosecute — since it is not the FBI’s job to prosecute, only investigate, and for the DOJ to actually decide whether to prosecute. But he did add for the record that her doings had been “extremely careless.”

Anyway, Comey’s blunder became a low-grade scandal unto itself, colored by the suspicious meeting a month earlier between Bill Clinton and then Attorney General Loretta Lynch in her official airplane parked on the tarmac of the Phoenix airport. Both claimed they just talked about their grandchildren. Hence, Comey letting Hillary off the hook in July had the odor of a set-up. She was duly nominated July 26, 2016.

In October, 2016, Wikileaks began dribbling out the hacked Podesta emails they had obtained earlier that year, just in time for the election. To complicate things, the FBI and the New York City police were just then investigating former Rep. Anthony Weiner, husband of Clinton’s closest aide Huma Abedin, for sending sexually explicit messages to a minor. In the course of things, they obtained Weiner’s laptop, which was stuffed with 140,000 additional emails between Ms. Abedin and Hillary. Yikes!

On October 28, 2016 (eleven days before the election), Comey sent a letter to Congress notifying them that the FBI was reviewing these newly discovered emails to determine if they contained classified information (they did), in effect re-opening Hillary’s private server case. Comey later testified he felt obligated to inform Congress to avoid accusations of a cover-up close to the election. He called it a “no-win situation.” On November 6, 2016 (two days before Election Day), Comey announced the review found no new evidence warranting charges, reaffirming the July conclusion.

All of this intrigue revolved around the question of who, exactly, hacked those DNC emails. In June 2016, a cyber-security outfit called CrowdStrike, run by former FBI agent Shawn Henry, identified two Russian intelligence-linked groups — Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear — as responsible for the DNC hack. By that time, the Steele Dossier was already circulating between the CIA, the FBI, and the White House. The Russia collusion story (the RussiaGate hoax) was busy being born. Russia Russia Russia !!! It was all the people of the USA heard the whole four years of the first Trump term.

Which brings us forward to the courtroom scene, February, 2027, Julian Assange in the witness chair. The young lead federal prosecutor (one of several) in the room, finishes his preliminary questions and asks Assange: “Are you willing to tell the court now, who exactly was your source for the DNC emails?” Assange has kept it secret for all these years. But he had been very badly abused by some of the very US government officials who are sitting at the two defendant’s tables, and he is rather sore about all the years he had to hide out in the Ecuadorean embassy in London before the Americans induced the British authorities to stuff him in Belmarsh prison for another five.

“Yes,” he says placidly.

“It was a young man named Seth Rich. He copied it onto a thumb-drive directly from the DNC.”

And that is how all the bullshit about RussiaGate finally dissolves into a rancid cloud of sedition for the folks slumped in their seats on the defendants’ side of the courtroom.

Shout out to the valiant podcaster Mel K for pointing us in the right direction on this one.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 11:40

Ukrainian Expert Dismisses Trump Pledge On Patriot Missile License As Empty PR

President Trump's declaration from the NATO summit in Turkey this week saying that he'll give Ukraine a license to produce Patriot defense systems has been met with a lot of skepticism, both among Ukrainians and internationally. 

"We’ll give them the right to make Patriots. We’ll show them how to do it," Trump had said. "I think they can produce them pretty quickly."

via Associated Press

Zelensky seized on the opening, telling reports on Thursday, "America has recognized Ukraine as a country that is ready to do this" and urged Ukrainian and American officials to now work "without pauses" to finalize the licensing arrangements.

Immediately the Associated Press raised some relevant questions, such as: What exactly would Ukraine be allowed to produce?... also while pointing out that under the best conditions, getting such production off the ground would take 'years'. It wrote:

Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, development director of the Fly Group Ukraine defense company, said Trump’s wording was ambiguous because he referred broadly to producing “Patriots,” without specifying whether he meant missiles, launchers, radar systems, command centers or components.

Missile production alone involves a vast supply chain, Khrapchynskyi said, with hundreds of companies making parts such as control surfaces, engines, guidance systems and communications equipment.

Following this, on Saturday Ukrainian economist and financial analyst Alexey Kushch - considered an expert of Ukraine's defense production - was cited in regional media as dismissing Trump's promise as mere empty PR.

His commentary is below, featured in Russian media:

"I think that was a marketing statement," Kushch said in an interview with Novyny. Live news website, referring to Trump’s pledge. According to him, only Semi-Knocked Down (SKD) production of Patriot missiles could be launched in Ukraine, using imported components. "Such production sites should be protected," the expert explained. "The whole of Ukraine is exposed to [enemy] fire, and missiles can even reach the Transcarpathian Region," he said. According to Kushch, Patriot production could be localized in his country only after the hostilities end.

"We don’t have a [Turkish] Bayraktar plant, or [German] Rheinmetall production either here yet," he added.

As for Trump's initial comments, he had also explained that American defense firms are already building "four plants" in the US and claimed that "all of our companies will be able to do this in two to three months."

There have notoriously been immense backlogs when it comes to Patriot production, and there's said to be great global demand among US allies, especially given depletions which have come as a result of the Iran war.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 11:05

"Planet's Strongest Heat Dome" To Bake America's Heartland

What some meteorologists are calling the "planet's strongest heat dome" is set to build over America's heartland next week. Triple-digit temperatures are expected across the northern Plains, with dangerous heat pushing eastward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

"The planet's strongest heat dome will develop over the Intermountain West and Plains into next week," meteorologists Ben Noll wrote on X, adding, "This will produce rare levels of heat up to around 110 degrees in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas. On Sunday, Billings, Montana, could be hotter than Phoenix!"

The planet's strongest heat dome will develop over the Intermountain West and Plains into next week.

This will produce rare levels of heat up to around 110 degrees in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas.

On Sunday, Billings, Montana, could be hotter than Phoenix! pic.twitter.com/rM60lGjUVS

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 10, 2026

Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli also sounded the alarm, saying, "Whopper of a heat dome coming, and that's no exaggeration! In all aspects: size, longevity, and especially intensity this will be extreme. The heat dome should shatter all-time records for upper level pressure in the Northern Plain States." 

‼️ Whopper of a heat dome coming, and that’s no exaggeration! In all aspects: size, longevity, and especially intensity this will be extreme. The heat dome should shatter all-time records for upper level pressure in the Northern Plain States. Actual Temperatures (not heat index)… pic.twitter.com/C3HF7N2nbL

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 8, 2026

Bloomberg data for the Lower 48 show that forecast high temperatures will be comparable to those recorded during the last heat wave from late June into early July.

High temperatures in Washington are expected to reach 100F by midweek.

Temperatures in New York City are expected to reach the high 90s by Wednesday.

It is likely that the PJM Interconnection grid will withstand the second round of heat, as the Trump administration has made it a priority to ensure maximum power generation during hot days when cooling demand surges.

Beyond grid stability concerns during peak-load hours, attention will likely turn to agricultural markets as critical growing regions bake under extreme heat. Wheat futures in Chicago surged 3% on Friday. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 09:55

"What Makes It Even Stranger...": Trump Describes Saturday Night Phone Call With Lindsey Graham Hours Before Senator's Death

Update (1815ET):

Officially, Graham died of an aortic dissection due to Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, according to preliminary findings by the DC Medical Examiner - so who knows. An aortic dissection is characterized as a tearing of the aortic wall. 

Update (1135ET): President Trump has weighed in on Graham's death, telling Meet the Press that Graham called him in the 'early evening,' to tell Trump he was 'all set for the Save America Act,' and that it may have been the last call Graham made. 

"what makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometimes in, you know, the early evening, maybe in the 7:00's. And he called and he said, "We're all set for the Save America Act,"" Trump told host Kristen Walker. "He was pushing the Save America Act like crazy. He got back, said he just landed from Ukraine. I said, "That's a long trip to make.""

TRUMP: “What makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometime … and [Lindsey Graham] said we're all set for the Save America Act … We thought maybe we might even meet today. And then that was it.” pic.twitter.com/9YVdW3VzRM

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) July 12, 2026

Graham notably toured a top secret Ukrainian 'Skyfall' drone factory (see more below) days before his death, where the country's deadly 'Baba Yaga' Vampire bomber drones are manufactured. He also announced an upcoming Russian sanctions package, and said that the US can learn a lot from Ukraine's UAV advancements.

"I believe that it would be a huge mistake for America not to cooperate with Ukraine in the field of drones. They are ready to help us, because we were ready to support Ukraine in the most difficult times," Graham said. 

This was Lindsey Graham two days ago in Kyiv after meeting with Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/J8VW3hmXfl

— MAZE (@mazemoore) July 12, 2026

US Senator Lindsey Graham visited Ukraine's SkyFall and got a look at Vampire heavy bomber drones, Shrike FPVs and P1-SUN Shahed interceptors, plus some new tech not yet on the battlefield. Looks pretty happy holding Ukraine's P1-SUN drone in the photo. pic.twitter.com/o2gFBt657c

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 11, 2026

When asked about a replacement for Graham, Trump said "I have somebody that I think would be great. But I don't want to say it now because, you know, it's too soon with Lindsey. I don't want to even talk about anybody. But I do have somebody that I think is really good."

International Response

In reaction to Graham's death, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid tribute, describing Graham as “a true defender of freedom and of the values that make our world safer.” He highlighted that Graham had visited Ukraine ten times during the war, noting they were in constant dialogue. Zelenskyy added that Graham had been working on key initiatives in recent weeks to advance peace, including stronger sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called Graham a “true friend” and “one of the strongest voices” supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. He praised Graham for pushing to bolster sanctions on Russia and for helping provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described Graham as “a powerful advocate for America who believed strongly in the NATO Alliance” and noted that he was actively working to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

* * *

Lindsey Graham, the Republican foreign-policy hawk from South Carolina, died abruptly on Saturday following what his office described as "a brief and sudden illness," according to a statement posted on X.

"On the evening of Saturday, July 11, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham passed away from a brief and sudden illness. Senator Graham's family appreciates prayers at this time and asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period," Graham's office said.

Statement from the Office of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina). pic.twitter.com/CQ5yVvqTH1

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 12, 2026

Graham had served in the Senate since 2003 and was seeking a fifth term. He was in Kyiv on Friday touring a major drone factory before returning to Washington, where he was scheduled to appear on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday morning.

Emergency personnel responded to his home in Washington on a reported cardiac arrest on Saturday evening, according to NBC News.

President Trump commented early Sunday on Truth Social about the passing of the senator, calling him a "true American Patriot."

Trump said, "Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known, is dead! He was always working, and was a true American Patriot. Lindsey will be greatly missed!!!"

To note, Graham was on an Iranian kill list. Just days ago, Trump said if he was assassinated, then "bomb them at levels never seen before." 

At least they used a good photo of me.

Judge me by my enemies. https://t.co/Ok2Oq1v4O5 pic.twitter.com/b1RBvzKo9K

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 6, 2026

Graham was once a fierce Trump critic, denouncing him during the 2016 presidential campaign before transforming into one of his most loyal supporters. He also advocated a hard line against Iran and consistently backed a strong US military posture overseas.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 09:35

Tehran Declares Hormuz Closed, But Ships Are Still Transiting

The Strait of Hormuz’s southern shipping channel remained open Sunday morning despite a sharp escalation in tit-for-tat attacks, with the US launching a third round of airstrikes on Iran and Tehran retaliating against US-linked targets across Arab Gulf states.

"Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued at reduced levels, with vessels transiting via both the southern Omani corridor and the northern Iranian-controlled route," the Joint Maritime Information Center wrote in a note early Sunday.

JMIC added, "Traffic patterns continued to reflect operator caution following recent attacks."

US Central Command said the overnight strikes on Iran were to neuter its ability to attack commercial ships in the Hormuz chokepoint after a Cyprus-flagged container vessel was heavily damaged near the critical waterway. Iranian media reported explosions across key coastal and energy facilities, including Bushehr, Asalouyeh, and Bandar Abbas.

Our overnight US-Iran wrap detailed that Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US-linked military facilities in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Qatar said it intercepted incoming missiles, while air-defense sirens were reported across several Gulf states. Read the report here.

Despite Tehran declaring the Hormuz chokepoint "closed until further notice," JMIC's update on the southern Omani shipping corridor and Bloomberg data show a trickle of activity, which may only suggest Tehran's total control of the strait is waning.

As for the normalization of tanker flows in the Hormuz chokepoint, the timeline now appears to be slipping. Many institutional desks had already priced in a gradual reopening and lowered their Brent and WTI forecasts (Citi was the latest), but that outlook now looks on hold.

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 09:20

US Population Growth Prospects Corrected Downwards

The population of the United States is projected to keep on climbing beyond 2100. However, the rate of increase that can be expected until 2050 has been significantly corrected downwards over the last couple of years.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, according to the Congressional Budget Office, 349 million people live in the United States in 2026. In 2050, this is expected to have risen to 364 million. In 2019, previous to the coronavirus pandemic, the 2050 forecast had still shown a U.S. population of 389 million.

You will find more infographics at Statista

As seen in the data, U.S. population projections were substantially impacted by Covid-19, as the country experienced high excess mortality and projections kept being corrected downwards due to this fact. In the years when the pandemic subsided, forecasts showed higher expected population numbers again, while 2025 and 2026 projections trended lower once more. The latest 2026 forecast reached a new low compared to the previous years' ups-and-downs as U.S. net immigration fell majorly in 2025.

As a reversal of low birth rates seem more and more unlikely, immigration continues to keep U.S. population growth afloat. Immigrants have contributed more to it than net births have since the second year of the coronavirus pandemic. At this point, net births (births minus deaths) took a major hit from which they never fully recovered. The Congressional Budget Office expects U.S. net births to turn negative around 2030, at which point only immigration will be contributing to U.S. population growth.

But the U.S. population is not just growing slower, it is also aging in the process. While in 2026, there are 2.7 working-age Americans (25 to 64 years old) per one American aged 65 or over, this will have changed to 2.2 to 1 in 2056 as the big cohort of baby boomers continues to cross this age threshold. As a result, more strain is expected on safety net system like Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 08:45

EU Eyes 2040 Electrification Target To Slash Oil and Gas Dependence

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

The European Commission is set to unveil next week an electrification target for 2040 in a bid to reduce the need for fossil fuels and strengthen the renewable energy sector in the EU, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg News.

The Commission, the EU’s legislative arm, is expected to propose on July 17 a target for the share of electrification, still unspecified, as part of the energy consumption in the bloc by 2040.

“With decisive action at all levels, Europe can become the first electro-continent,” the European Commission said in the document seen by Bloomberg News.

“This profound transformation will require investments and lead to savings and benefits well beyond the energy system, from clean tech manufacturers to the installation sector, from more modern and competitive industries to emissions and pollution reduction in European cities.”

Higher electrification rates could help the EU replace two-thirds of its gas consumption and halve its oil consumption, according to provisional EC estimates in the draft proposal.

The expected decline in fossil fuel consumption could reduce the bloc’s energy import bill by a total of $228 billion (200 billion euros), the EC reckons.

The EU’s current electrification rate is about 23% and has been stagnant at around this number for nearly a decade. At the same time, countries like China, Japan, and South Korea have exceeded a 30% electrification rate.

The EU currently has an implicit electrification rate target of 32.5% by 2030, according to estimates by clean energy think tank Ember based on the individual National Energy and Climate Plans.

The EU Electrification Action Plan, expected next week, would contain an “ambitious electrification target,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this year.

The electrification target is expected to be expressed as a yet-to-be-defined percentage share of energy consumption by 2040, according to the draft document seen by Bloomberg News.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 07:50

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• It’s a World-Class Investment. It’s a Junk Investment. What Is Going On With SpaceX? The answer starts with Wall Street’s long-held distinction between “smart money” and “dumb money.” In that view, the roughly $2 trillion value that the stock market is affording SpaceX — about the same as Amazon’s value, and more than JPMorgan’s and ExxonMobil’s combined — is being set by naïve investors who think Elon Musk’s promises will all miraculously be realized. The debt, on the other hand, is being priced by seasoned investors, the ones who understand that profits actually have to be earned, and who are rightly skeptical of Mr. Musk’s grand pronouncements. SpaceX is simultaneously the most coveted private asset on earth and a governance nightmare. Bethany McLean on the paradox of a company that’s worth $350 billion and run like a startup with no board oversight. (New York Times)

• How Rogue Nations Are Using Cryptocurrencies to Evade Sanctions: Blacklisted entities handled $100 billion in crypto in 2025, financing terrorism and weapons. The WSJ maps the workaround economy — and it’s bigger than you think. (Wall Street Journal) see also Trump’s $1.4 billion crypto disclosure: The White House insists there’s no conflict of interest as Trump reports $1.4 billion in income from an industry he’s deregulated. Molly White digs into the president’s financial disclosure and finds the conflicts of interest are no longer theoretical — they’re on the form. (Citation Needed)

• Jessica Burbank on the Rise of Flock Safety and America’s Surveillance State. Investigative journalist Jessica Burbank explains how the company quietly won government contracts across the country—and why communities are starting to push back. Current Affairs interview on how Flock Safety’s license plate readers have quietly blanketed the country — and why most Americans have no idea how thoroughly their movements are being tracked. (Current Affairs)

• Has America Crossed the Asshole Threshold? Civilizations can carry a surprising number of parasites and live. But there’s a line — Rome crossed it, the Gilded Age toed it, and for the first time in history, we can measure it. The Grim Historian asks the title question: whether there’s a tipping point at which institutional rudeness, bad faith, and cruelty become self-reinforcing cultural defaults. (Defector)

• The End of Reading Is Here: Optimists once believed that universal literacy was inevitable. Now it seems that the age of reading might be a short anomaly in human history. The Atlantic‘s cover story on the collapse of sustained reading as a cultural practice — and what a post-literate society actually looks like. Not the death of books, but the death of the attention required to read them. (The Atlantic)

• Watchdog warns of risks to patients as private equity’s stake in US healthcare grows: New report details slew of ventures between private equity and nonprofits and calls for greater government oversight. Color me unsurprised. (The Guardian)

• The Supreme Court is corrupting American democracy: One cannot hope to bribe or twist/ (thank God!) the U.S. chief jurist. To understand this, you need to think more systematically about the relationship between democracy and corruption. The best way of understanding this relationship that I know of is laid out in an academic article that was published the year before John Roberts was named Chief Justice, Mark Warren’s “What Does Corruption Mean in a Democracy?” Henry Farrell argues the Supreme Court is corrupting American democracy — not decision by decision, but structurally. (Programmable Mutter)

• Why U.S. measles outbreaks have grown harder to extinguish: The nation is already nearing last year’s record case total, and experts say the virus is forcing doctors to relearn a disease many thought had been consigned to history. Why measles outbreaks keep getting harder to extinguish: falling vaccination rates meet a weakened public-health system. Entirely predictable, entirely preventable. (Washington Post) see also As Parents Reject Vitamin K Shots, Some Babies Develop Devastating Bleeding: Doctors described treating brain and abdominal hemorrhages in infants who hadn’t received the routine injection. Several said the images of those patients were seared in their minds. • As Parents Reject Vitamin K Shots, Some Babies Develop Devastating Bleeding: The NYT documents the real-world consequences of vaccine hesitancy’s cousin: parents declining a routine newborn treatment that prevents a rare but catastrophic bleeding disorder. (New York Times)

• Bari Weiss Is Filling CBS News With British Right Wing Propagandists: from the you’re-simply-not-very-good-at-anything dept; As we’ve long explored, Weiss wasn’t hired to do journalism. She was hired to do right wing agitprop. But given she’s not good at that either, CBS just saw its lowest ratings in a quarter century.  (Techdirt)

• How Olivia Rodrigo Is Getting Back at the Trump Administration: The pop star is turning her platform and her festival into an organizing machine. The Hollywood Reporter on her evolution from heartbreak anthems to political action. (Hollywood Reporter)

Video of the day: How Hinckley Outlived 90 Years of American Boatbuilding Disasters.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty. We discuss how he transformed the family boat insurance business into a “sexy” driver-forward business. We also discuss our love of collectable cars and his love of his first car, a Porsche, that he bought at the age of 13.

Americans are set to lose nearly $250B gambling this year—a record high, up more than 60% since 2019—and that’s before counting unofficial betting via prediction markets or crypto

Source: Joseph Politano

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~~~

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The Economics Of The Surveillance State

Authored by  John Wilder,

“That was a Beria operation in Stalin’s time.  It was deactivated twenty years ago.”

– The Living Daylights

How did KGB agents commit suicide?  Two shots to the back of the head.  (all photo content as-found)

Remember Lavrentiy Beria’s cheerful advice:  “Show me the man, and I will find the crime”?  Back in the Soviet Union they had so many laws on the books that everybody broke at least one before lunch, I mean, when lunch was available.  And if they didn’t, they could make up something.  Beria just needed enough spies and informants to spot the right violation.

Beria would have loved modern America.  We’ve upgraded his whole operation with better cameras, faster computers, and added actual profit margins.

Let’s start with Flock™ cameras.

Flock Safety© cameras now line roads from coast to coast.  More than 100,000 of the little snitches sit on poles in ditches scanning license plates 24/7 and however many metric hours in a metric day and metric days in a metric week.  The cameras rolled out one quiet law enforcement contract at a time until the whole country is now blanketed.

Not everyone who comes into your life is your friend.  Some are just surveillance cameras. (btw, she was innocent, but the police didn’t apologize)

Maps of the cameras exist online, but those rely on humans, and it shows only three of the eight within five miles of my house in Modern Mayberry.  I could plot an avoidance route if I had nothing better to do than play spy versus spy on my commute, or build a detector like Benn Jordan did.

Most of us have jobs and families instead.  But, hey, we’ve funded a system so that every time you get on the road, you’re creating a record that will last as long as they have storage.  And cops can now use this to stalk their ex-wives, so it’s a double win, right?

How did the farmer stalk his ex?  He tractor.

Next up?

Ring™ doorbells joined the neighborhood watch program without asking their “owner’s” permission.  When several co-eds were murdered in Idaho a couple of years ago, investigators pulled Ring© footage to track a suspect’s car.  A subpoena moves quicker than a polite request and never waits for the doorbell to be answered, so they got all the data that they needed to catch the guy.  I’m okay with catching murderers, but how many people will be caught in fishing dragnets for being in the wrong place at the wrong time?

Where exactly are you going at 2 a.m., citizen?

Laptops aren’t safe, either.

A hacker got grabbed in Finland on his way out of the country.  Prosecutors used the connection with Microsoft’s© handy Global Device Identifier™ to identify him.  One persistent number tied his computer to all the mischief.  Microsoft® handed over the records after the usual court paperwork and a feeble, “oh, stop . . . customer privacy . . . .”  My operating system apparently keeps better tabs on me than my own mother, but at least Ma Wilder has the excuse of being dead.

I wonder if my FBI agent likes the jokes I make?

Then there is Windows Recall© on the fancy new Copilot™ machines.  It snaps pictures of your screen every few seconds while you work and builds a searchable scrapbook of everything you looked at.  Local storage only

They promise.  Pinky swear, even.

Still feels like my laptop decided to start a scrapbooking hobby without telling me first.

Besides, my ISP already knows every site you visit and how long you lingered.  Edward Snowden spilled the beans years ago on the big programs that pulled data straight from the servers of Microsoft™, Google®, Apple©, Facebook™ and the Rest®.  Fiber-optic taps caught traffic in bulk, Then three-letter outfits and tech companies worked hand in glove.

The result is giant databases full of regular people doing regular things.  But don’t worry!  If you’ve been good, you’re fine.  And if you’re Hillary Clinton or Jeff Epstein, all the data will be lost.

Big Tech loves this data game because it prints money for them.  They track my habits down to the weirdest details (really, kittens eating salami?) and sell the profiles to insurers, advertisers, and anyone else with a checkbook.

My patterns become their product.  They turn my life into a spreadsheet and then mark it up like a used-car dealer who knows you really need that transmission fixed today.

Speaking of cars, they’re getting chatty, too.

Modern ones log every trip, every hard brake, every late-night drive.  Some already phone home to the manufacturer and won’t work unless the software license is up to date.  Insurance companies will pay good money for a direct feed on how I actually drive instead of guessing from your age and ZIP code.

Soon enough, the car might call the cops if it thinks I had one too many.  My pickup turns into the world’s most expensive designated snitch.

Hopefully, during the 4th of July holiday you didn’t get distracted and miss the big picture:  The British blew a 13 colony lead.

Ninety-nine percent of us carry cell phones that never stop reporting.  Every search, every video, every song gets logged.  Cops have started treating a phone left at home like suspicious behavior (I’m not making this up).  The little rectangle in your pocket is the most reliable witness I never hired.

Big companies with this much reach do have a kryptonite®:  governments.  They do exactly what the government asks.  They bent over backwards to limit talk about COVID and elections under the last administration.  Books and posts that wandered off the approved script vanished from platforms:  I know, I made a COVID joke on a podcast and it was sent to podcast jail.

The same tools will work just as well for whoever sits in the big chair next.  They already proved they can move fast when someone important asks nicely.

Harvey Silverglate spelled this out in his book Three Felonies a Day.  Federal law has grown so broad and fuzzy that a decent prosecutor can usually find something to charge anyone with.  Normal life now sits inside a minefield of possible violations.  Add constant surveillance and the minefield gets floodlights, motion sensors, and a searchable menu.

Stalin put a ? after the name of every traitor:  they question Marx.

The Code of Federal Regulations stretches to roughly 190,000 pages or almost the number of words in a GloboLeftist meme. Rules multiply every year.  Nobody can read the whole thing, and if they did, another 10,000 pages would have been added in the meantime.  When surveillance supplies the evidence, the vague laws and regulations become precision weapons.  Who cares if you’re guilty?  Just being charged is punishment for the innocent.  The process is the point.

Government and Big Tech® now hold detailed maps of where you drive, what you read, who you talk to, and how you spend your time.  Also notice that they don’t bother to use these to catch murderers in Chicago or gang criminals.  No, they’re encouraging that violence.

Beria ran on fear and informants.  The updated model runs on sensors, algorithms, and sweet quarterly earnings.  It costs less to operate and reaches farther and hardly ever complains about running out of vodka.  The economics make perfect sense for the people building it, because collecting the data is cheap once the hardware is installed.

The Surveillance State runs on convenience for the watchers and profit for the builders. Beria would have been jealous of the efficiency and probably asked for stock options.

Don’t you love it when totalitarian communism and capitalism overlap?

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 23:20

Which States Produce The Most Food In America?

From California’s fruit and vegetable farms to the Midwest’s vast corn and soybean fields, agriculture looks very different across the United States.

Using the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), this graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, ranks every state by its agricultural production value in 2024.

America’s Largest Agricultural Economies

The table below shows each state’s agricultural production value in 2024.

Together, the top 10 states account for well over half of America’s agricultural production value. Geography, climate, water availability, and decades of specialization have helped create distinct regional farming economies across the country.

California Remains America’s Agricultural Giant

California generated $67.4 billion in agricultural production value in 2024, nearly twice as much as any other state.

Its combination of specialty crops, fruits, vegetables, nuts, dairy, and favorable growing conditions allows it to produce more agricultural value than any other U.S. state despite accounting for only a small share of the nation’s farmland.

Texas, another large state by both population and land area, ranks third nationally, generating $37.6 billion driven largely by cattle production.

The Midwest Is America’s Food Engine

While California tops the rankings individually, the Midwest dominates collectively.

The region accounts for 44% of U.S. agricultural production value, powered by states including Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, and Illinois. Taken together, these states produce over 60% of America’s corn volume.

Many Midwestern states also specialize in soybeans, livestock, and dairy, forming the backbone of both the U.S. food system and global agricultural exports. This makes the Midwest one of the world’s leading agricultural production corridors.

A Diverse Agricultural Economy

Agricultural strength varies widely by region. Western states generate high-value specialty crops, vineyards, and dairy, while Southern states are major producers of poultry, cotton, rice, and cattle. Although Northeastern agriculture is smaller by value, it remains an important source of dairy, produce, and regional food supply.

This regional specialization helps make the U.S. one of the world’s leading agricultural producers and food exporters, supplying both domestic consumers and global markets alike.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the states with the most farmland.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 22:45

Next-Gen Ramjet Fuel Propulsion System For Future Offensive, Defensive Missions Tested

Authored by Prabhat Ranjan Mishra via Interesting Engineering,

L3Harris has taken a significant step toward advancing next-generation propulsion technology for future offensive and defensive missions.

The approach marks an essential risk reduction step in enabling solid fuel ramjet propulsion to help close a critical performance, and cost gap. (Representational image)

The company revealed that a recent test demonstrated progress toward a high-performance, lower-cost propulsion option. The test also met the Department of War's goal to provide superior advanced weapon systems, at affordable mass, that will outpace adversaries and expand the range of solutions available to the warfighter.

"This test is an important step in proving solid fuel ramjet propulsion can deliver the speed, range and affordability our customers need," said Scott Alexander, President, Missile Propulsion, L3Harris.

"We are reducing risk now so we can move faster toward a scalable capability for the warfighter."

Full-Scale Test Of New Solid Fuel Ramjet Fuel Grain

L3Harris highlighted that the event marked the company's first full-scale test of a new solid fuel ramjet fuel grain specially formulated to significantly reduce the cost of fuel when compared to historical industry standards.

During the ground test, the team ignited and operated the system in a direct connect flight-representative environment, allowing engineers to evaluate performance across a large portion of the simulated flight envelope. Initial results showed propulsion levels were consistent with expectations for flight operation, giving the team valuable data as it continues to refine the design towards tactical missile system demonstration, according to a press release.

Disciplined Approach Marks An Essential Risk Reduction

This test event helps validate key performance characteristics as L3Harris accelerates towards flight testing, and this disciplined approach marks an essential risk reduction step in enabling solid fuel ramjet propulsion to help close a critical performance and cost gap for the U.S. military and allies.

"We are answering the Department of War's call for longer-reach, more capable, lower-cost propulsion that is producible at the scale needed," said Joel Warhurst, Director, Business Development, L3Harris.

"We are designing for manufacturing, performance and production capacity with a straightforward goal of more speed, more range at a cost point that supports affordable mass."

With additional ground testing planned, the company is moving quickly from test data and refinement to tactical missile flight demonstration - advancing a propulsion solution designed for the speed, scale and affordability future missions will require, as per the release.

The latest test also demonstrates the company's expanding expertise in advanced propulsion technologies following its acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne's missile propulsion business. By combining propulsion innovation with modern manufacturing techniques, L3Harris aims to accelerate the delivery of next-generation missile systems to military customers.

As global defense requirements continue to evolve, advanced ramjet propulsion is expected to play a crucial role in future missile systems by providing higher sustained speeds, extended engagement ranges, and improved survivability against sophisticated air defense networks. The successful demonstration positions L3Harris as one of the key industry players working to advance high-speed propulsion technologies for future operational needs.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 22:10

California Ex-Police Official Tops State Payroll With $1.2 Million Payday

Former Redlands Police Deputy Chief Travis Martinez received nearly $1.2 million in wages in 2025, the highest reported compensation for any city employee in California, according to newly released data from the State Controller's Office and reporting by the New York Post.

Payroll records show Martinez collected $81,804 in regular pay, $890,467 in other compensation and $231,099 in lump-sum payments before retiring in April. The city also contributed roughly $55,900 toward his retirement and health benefits, bringing his total compensation package to about $1.26 million.

The State Controller's Office publishes annual payroll data for public employees, while public records compiled by Transparent California identified the employee as Martinez.

The Post writes that according to the Orange County Register, the unusually large payout stemmed from a settlement that resolved a lengthy dispute between Martinez and the city. He had been on paid administrative leave for about 18 months before retiring in April 2025. As part of the agreement, Martinez retired and dropped a legal claim against the city in exchange for a settlement reportedly worth about $872,000.

In a 2023 claim, Martinez alleged city officials retaliated against him after he reported what he described as misconduct within the police department. Among other allegations, he said he raised concerns about efforts to conceal evidence related to a fatal Metrolink train crash and reported claims of sexual misconduct involving then-Deputy Chief Mike Reiss to the FBI after concluding the matter was not being properly addressed internally.

Martinez remained on paid leave until his retirement. Separately, allegations against Reiss have resulted in multiple legal settlements for the city. Reiss retired in 2023 after being accused of grooming and sexually harassing several department employees, while former Police Chief Chris Catren retired days earlier, denying any connection to the controversy.

Over the past three years, Redlands has approved more than $3.3 million in settlements related to sexual harassment lawsuits involving Reiss. In his legal filing, Martinez described his 29-year career as exemplary and alleged he was repeatedly denied promotions because he refused to overlook misconduct within the department.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 21:35

Congressman Outraged After Brief Detention By Gun-Wielding Israeli Settlers In West Bank Visit

Via The Cradle

A group of extremist Jewish settlers equipped with US-made M4 rifles detained US lawmaker Ro Khanna and his group during their visit this week to the southern occupied West Bank, the Democratic representative has disclosed.

"We were at a village that Israeli settlers had destroyed; they had destroyed the school, they had destroyed that village, and we were just looking at it," Khanna told Reuters on Thursday.  "And these hoodlums come in with machine guns – M4, an American-made machine gun – and they detain us. They block off the road." Khanna said, adding, "And then they call the IDF and ​the IDF is on their side, not on the side of the Americans."

via Reuters

Khanna's aide, Cameron Kasky, said the delegation was held for over an hour near Khirbet Zanuta, a Palestinian hamlet ethnically cleansed by Israeli settlers in 2023, before appealing to the US Embassy in Jerusalem to free them. 

Khanna's visit to the occupied West Bank comes as support for Israel splits Democrats ahead of the US midterm elections in November, with the issue contributing to primary defeats for incumbent lawmakers financed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

Israel's favorability rating among Democratic voters has fallen from 59 percent in 2018 to 22 percent in May 2026, according to recent polls. 

The US lawmaker's confrontation with extremist settler groups occurs amid a broader campaign of state-supported settler violence that, by mid-2026, has escalated into systematic ethnic cleansing and land theft in the occupied West Bank. 

As of July 2026, illegal settler outposts effectively control 18 percent of the occupied West Bank, following an "unprecedented" expansion directly backed by the Israeli government.

Former Israeli officials have characterized the current escalation as a "systematic campaign" of "Jewish terrorism" intended to facilitate de facto annexation of the Palestinian territories.

An Oxfam analysis based on UN data revealed that since 2023, Israeli forces and settlers have killed at least 1,244 Palestinians, exceeding the total from the previous 17 years combined, and forcibly displaced nearly 46,000 people.

Israeli settlers, brandishing American made M4s, detained me & other Americans on my trip to Palestine.

When the IDF arrived, they sided with the settlers & continued our detention.

They made a huge mistake.

You will be hearing more soon. https://t.co/rZw8bRAn64 pic.twitter.com/4z50Ye4I7K

— Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) July 11, 2026

Over 540 settler attacks were reported in the first quarter of 2026 alone, alongside a record 925 movement obstacles that restrict Palestinian life. 

Amnesty International concluded, based on independent investigations, that the Israeli government is implementing a policy of ethnic cleansing, supported by digital evidence, satellite imagery, and field investigations. 

* * *

More of Rep. Khanna's account of what happened...

Ro Khanna said he was detained by Israeli settlers armed with US-made rifles during a West Bank visit this week that the Democratic lawmaker cast as an unfiltered look at the toll of Israeli occupation as he weighs a 2028 presidential run https://t.co/1cLLaCQrOf pic.twitter.com/Dw8QqJNk0j

— Reuters (@Reuters) July 11, 2026

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 21:00

Guggenheim AI Survey Finds Adoption Surging Across Large IT Enterprises As Mass Layoff Fears Fall Flat

Building on Goldman's estimate that AI adoption across corporate America currently stands at roughly 20.6% and could rise to 24% by year-end, a Guggenheim Securities survey of 150 large-enterprise IT professionals found that 81% of respondents have already deployed AI agents. Anthropic and OpenAI are leading adoption among AI-native platforms, reinforcing the view that the enterprise chatbot and frontier-model battle is increasingly becoming a two-pony race.

The survey found that enterprise adoption of AI is quickly accelerating, with 81% of respondents already deploying chatbots.

About 42% of employees actively use AI for roughly 22% of the workday, resulting in an estimated 18% productivity gain.

According to respondents, AI accounts for an average of roughly 19% of corporate IT budgets, with spending concentrated in software development, data analytics, and IT operations. About half of respondents expect AI to become a separate budget line, while 37% of those firms plan to fund it in part through incremental spending beyond existing IT allocations.

The survey also provided more evidence of token cost concerns among respondents:

On average, respondents anticipate that AI will have a positive impact on their company's operating margin. Furthermore, respondents anticipate this impact to accelerate to 3.1% in 2027. We also note that our data indicates more respondents anticipate mid-to-high single- digit decreases in 2027 vs. 2026, which may be indicative of token costs outweighing realized benefits from AI adoption. With that being said, this is still significantly outweighed by an anticipated benefit from AI.

Recall the recent tokenmaxxing fiasco and the mysterious $500 million Claude bill, Uber capping AI coding spend after burning through its entire 2026 agentic budget in just four months, and UBS checks showing token costs have become a live issue for roughly 60% of enterprise customers. One company received its first AI invoice and heard leadership respond bluntly: "We don't have the money for this."

Related:

• 'Out Of The Magnificent 7, Into China': The AI Trade's Token Bill Is Finally Coming Due
• The Token Revolt Goes Mainstream: Palo Alto CEO Demands 90% AI Price Drop

On headcount, respondents reported an average 2.5% reduction tied to AI, far from the apocalyptic mass-layoff forecasts that dominated headlines earlier this year.

Marc Andreessen recently dismissed the narrative of sweeping AI-driven job cuts as "fake," and Guggenheim's findings lend some support to that view: AI is improving productivity and easing labor constraints, but it has yet to trigger mass layoffs.

Here are more AI adoption trends across the corporate world, offered in a recent note by Goldman analyst Sarah Dong... 

Read here.

However, JPMorgan takes a different view of the AI adoption trend. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 20:25

DARPA's Chilling Pre-COVID Blueprint: Predict, Manufacture, & Deploy Pandemics On Demand

Authored by Jon Fleetwood, via Substack,

A sprawling, multi-institution effort for "predicting" future pathogen characteristics, developing vaccines "in advance of need," and building the very systems intended to validate those predictions.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) spent the early 2010s constructing what may have been the most ambitious predictive vaccine-development infrastructure ever attempted: a sprawling, multi-institution effort designed to determine the future characteristics of purported pathogens before they emerged and ultimately use those predictions to develop drugs and vaccines before they were needed.

The program, known as PROPHECY—short for Pathogen Defeat—was announced in 2010 under Broad Agency Announcement DARPA-BAA-10-93 and was managed by DARPA’s Defense Sciences Office.

DARPA itself described the vaccine-centric purpose of the program unambiguously.

According to the agency: “The Prophecy (Pathogen Defeat) program will explore the evolution of viruses in the hopes of predicting viral mutations and ultimately developing drugs and vaccines in advance of need.”

The effort was not limited to coronaviruses, influenza, or any other single disease category.

DARPA repeatedly stated that the goal was understanding: “the natural evolution of any virus.”

The result was a massive architecture that brought together machine learning researchers, statisticians, bioinformaticians, computational biologists, laboratory scientists, surveillance specialists, universities, contractors, and national laboratories into a single “predictive” framework.

Yesterday, this website reported that DARPA’s PROPHECY program expanded into the laboratory of coronavirus researcher Ralph Baric years before the COVID-19 pandemic and nearly a decade before the DARPA/DEFUSE proposal documented all three defining structural features of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein prior to the outbreak.

DARPA Wanted to Turn Vaccine Development from Reactive to Predictive

DARPA openly believed that existing vaccine development operated backwards.

The agency described the modern pharmaceutical model as: “observational and reactive.”

PROPHECY was intended to replace that model with one that was: “predictive and preemptive.”

Rather than waiting for future purported disease threats to appear before beginning the process of characterization and countermeasure development, DARPA sought systems capable of determining the characteristics of future pathogen populations in advance.

Everything in PROPHECY flowed from that objective.

Building the Blueprint Before the Pathogen

DARPA’s ambitions extended far beyond outbreak forecasting.

The agency stated: “DARPA seeks to achieve the ability to successfully predict the natural evolution of any virus, via platforms and algorithms which are capable of monitoring rare advantageous viral events…”

The program sought systems capable of determining:

• future mutations,
• future reassortments,
• future genetic events,
• the order in which mutations would emerge,
• genotype-to-phenotype relationships,
• and ultimately the characteristics of future pathogen populations.

DARPA acknowledged: “there is at present no reliable capability to predict viral reassortment or mutations responsible for the emergence of new viral strains.”

Its proposed solution was: “An investigative platform to predict mutations and possibly reassortments in advance of their occurrence.”

The agency further explained that PROPHECY sought: “predictive algorithms of viral evolution that are informed and validated experimentally using high throughput biological platforms…” and: “the integration of a viral evolution platform with an algorithm that predicts mutations which confer an evolutionary advantage to the viral population.”

Among the formal requirements of the program was the ability to: “reproducibly predict the genomic, proteomic, and/or functional attributes of the final viral population.”

DARPA also sought to determine: “the rate and order of mutation acquisition” as well as: “the correlation of genotype to phenotype.”

The objective was not merely individual mutations.

It was the endpoint population itself.

Prediction Was Only the First Layer

PROPHECY was never designed to stop at prediction.

DARPA required participants to construct what it called: “biological validation systems” and repeatedly emphasized: “testing and validation of the system and algorithm.”

The BAA instructed performers to: “Perform a ‘real world’ test of the predictive algorithm and biological validation system…”

The purpose of that exercise was to determine whether researchers could: “reproducibly predict the genomic, proteomic, and/or functional attributes of the ending viral population.”

DARPA further instructed participants to: “develop a research strategy and solicit collaborations from partners” that would assist in: “applying their predictive methodology to surveillance data from the real world.”

The architecture described by PROPHECY therefore extended beyond prediction alone.

The program sought to construct systems capable not only of generating future pathogen blueprints, but also of attempting to validate those predictions experimentally and through subsequent observational frameworks.

Bottom Line

Amid COVID-19 debates, public attention has focused on later programs such as DEFUSE, ADEPT, pandemic mRNA platforms, and Operation Warp Speed.

But PROPHECY confirms that by 2010, DARPA was openly attempting to build a generalized predictive infrastructure capable of deciding the future characteristics of purported pathogens, using those predictions to enable drugs and vaccines in advance, and constructing systems intended to validate those predictions experimentally and through later observational frameworks.

Most importantly, the effort was never intended for a single disease.

PROPHECY sought to build this capability for: “any virus.”

Whether viewed as predictive biodefense, anticipatory genomics, preemptive countermeasure development, or something else, the architecture described by DARPA followed a remarkably consistent sequence:

• vaccines as the objective;
• future pathogen blueprints as the enabling technology;
• “validation” systems as the final layer.

That architecture may ultimately prove to be one of the most consequential and least understood developments in the history of modern biodefense research.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 19:50