The October Term: A Preview Of The Coming Cases For Another "Big Year" On The Court

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

October is when hype meets reality. In baseball, the final teams are sorted out for the playoffs, and your football teams are well into the winnowing-out process for the Super Bowl. For court nerds, the start of the October term at the Supreme Court can have a similar dynamic, as long-watched cases finally come up for oral argument. Although the court continues to accept cases on a rolling basis, this term is looking like another blockbuster, with cases that range from climate change to gun rights to parental rights.

The odds of making the oral argument docket make the NFL season look like a walk in the park. After thousands of petitions, the Supreme Court accepts on average between 70-80 cases for the coveted "writ of certiorari." If you are a lower-court judge with an appealed case, this is one Super Bowl you would probably prefer to skip. The court generally reverses the cases it accepts for review. Last term, it had a 71 percent rejection rate, slightly up from the prior year.

This year already has a number of major cases that are likely to have transformative impacts on the law and society. Here are a few.

Climate Change

In Suncor Energy Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County, Boulder sued energy companies under theories of public and private nuisance, trespass, unjust enrichment, and civil conspiracy, claiming that they knowingly contributed to climate change while misleading the public about its impacts." The Colorado Supreme Court ruled for the city and the county in finding that such lawsuits are not barred by federal preemption. If the case is allowed to go forward, it would expose companies to potentially thousands of climate change lawsuits.

Gun Rights

October is already shaping up as a major Second Amendment term. Democratic cities and states have been banning the AR-15, the most popular rifle in the U.S., and the 9mm semi-automatic handgun, the most popular handgun in the U.S. These cases out of the Seventh Circuit in Chicago (Viramontes v. Cook County) and the Second Circuit in New York (Grant v. Higgins) will likely give long-awaited clarity on these bans. They could potentially close off a major circumvention of prior rulings to achieve sweeping gun control policies.

In addition to these cases, the court is considering the possible review of Calce v. New York. In that case, the Second Circuit upheld a stun gun ban. The court previously sent back a similar case out of Massachusetts after the First Circuit ignored prior rulings. The court stressed that the fact that a weapon did not exist at the time of the ratification of the Second Amendment (such as "electric arms") does not mean that they fall outside of the constitutional protections. The addition of Calce would make this one of the most momentous Second Amendment terms in history.

Parochial Schools and Religious Discrimination

The court will return to another parochial school controversy this term. In prior cases, the court has repeatedly stepped in to prevent states from discriminating against religious schools in voucher or subsidy programs. In St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, the Tenth Circuit upheld a Colorado provision that requires all preschools to agree not to discriminate on the "race, religious affiliation, sexual orientation, gender identity, income, or disability." The Catholic challengers are arguing that the policy requires them to violate their religious values as a condition for participating in the preschool program and funding.

Parental Rights

In International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson, Washington amended its laws to delay shelters in notifying parents of a runaway child who has "gender-affirming treatment" - the standard used for children in abusive homes. Instead, the Department of Children, Youth, and Families is first notified. The Ninth Circuit rejected parental claims raised in the case due to a lack of standing.

The Right to a 12-Member Jury

In Kian v. Florida, chiropractor Hamed Kian was convicted of five counts related to practicing with a suspended license. Pursuant to Florida law, he was tried by a six-person jury. Kian argues that the law violated his Sixth Amendment right to a jury of 12 members.

Some of us are watching a few other cases. Not surprisingly, my two favorites deal with the freedom of speech. The court has yet to decide whether to accept D.A. v. Tri-County Area Schools in which the Sixth Circuit upheld a school ban on high school students wearing "Let's Go Brandon" sweatshirts. In the view of many of us in the free-speech community, the case is a major potential First Amendment ruling in the making.

Some of us also hope that the court will take up Tiny Zaps v. Traxler, which deals with a ban on tattoos on the face, neck, or head as well as a ban on tattoo parlors within 1,000 feet of churches, school, or playgrounds. The South Carolina Supreme Court upheld the ban, and it could allow the court to reinforce free-speech protections for "body art."

The late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once said, "It's hard not to have a big year at the Supreme Court." That is certainly true, but this term is already pretty big, and the court still has plenty of slots to fill before January.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor who teaches a class on the Constitution and the Supreme Court and is the best-selling author of "Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution."

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 11:50

Bessent Begs Fed For Mercy

If you wanted a textbook example of a central bank trapped between a geopolitical rock and a stagflationary hard place, welcome to September 2026. To wit: the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is tearing through the global energy market, and the resulting inflation shock is vaporizing the bond market.

As we warned readers weeks ago when the initial blockades began, the diplomatic "negotiations" between Washington and Tehran are turning out to be nothing more than political theater. With President Trump officially rejecting Tehran's latest proposal, Brent crude has predictably violently rejected the downside, surging back toward the $107 level. Despite the usual algorithmic dip-buying on whispers that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi might speak to mediators in New York, the reality on the water is that millions of barrels remain bottlenecked in the world's most critical maritime chokepoint.

The resulting shockwaves are doing exactly what we said they would to the long end of the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield has blown out to a nearly two-decade high, sparking dramatic weakness below the surface of what at first seems like a 'far too calm' equity market. The Dollar wrecking ball is back in full swing - tightening financial conditions, and gold is being temporarily liquidated as traders scramble for liquidity.

Enter Bessent

Now, Bessent is calling for The Fed to "keep an open mind" on the US inflation outlook - and that productivity gains from AI and deregulation will keep it in check, according to Bloomberg.

 In short, the administration is quietly terrified that The Fed is going to look at the oil-driven inflation prints, panic, and hike rates straight into a structurally vulnerable economy. Bessent is effectively pleading with the Fed to look past the energy spike and recognize that tightening monetary policy won't clear Iranian gunboats out of the Strait of Hormuz.

The market is pricing a 70% chance that The Fed will hike in October, ahead of the Midterms.

But the Fed may not have the luxury of an "open mind" given the market's pricing (The Fed prefers not to surprise the market) and the incoming data.

As we noted in our PCE preview last week, the upcoming inflation-adjusted consumer spending numbers for August are expected to surge by the most this year. While government statisticians are desperately trying to massage the Fed's preferred underlying inflation gauge - literally revamping the methodology to shave off three-tenths of a percentage point - the unvarnished monthly data is going to be a disaster for any dovish narrative.

And then comes Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls.

Wall Street's perpetually optimistic consensus is expecting a "Goldilocks" print of 90,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate. As always, we fully expect Biden-era BLS holdovers to rely on heavily massaged seasonal adjustments and the infamous Birth-Death model to paint a picture of a "resilient" labor market. Wall Street cheerleaders, like UBS's Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, are already pre-spinning the narrative, claiming the US economy can "absorb the impact of modestly tighter monetary policy."

We've heard this story before. The market is entirely hostage to the bond vigilantes, and with earnings season still weeks away, equities have nowhere to hide from the soaring cost of capital (with hyperscaler issuance reflexively biting its own tail).

Bessent can urge the Fed to keep an "open mind" all he wants, but with oil knocking on $110 and the 10-year yield breaking multi-decade highs, the math is doing the talking.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 11:40

California's Newsom Signs Memecoin Ban And Calls It 'The Opposite Of Trump'

Authored by Omkar Godbole via CoinDesk,

President Donald Trump has made millions from memecoins, but politicians in California don't have that chance anymore.

On Sunday, California's Governor Gavin Newsom signed a law that bans the state's public officials from issuing memecoins, or cryptocurrencies representing a famous personality, internet joke or viral trend rather than a specific use case.

The measure, AB 2409, was signed along with 10 other bills on corruption and consumer protection. Others set rules for paying back crypto scam victims and creating a legal process to seize crypto from transnational criminal networks.

Newsom's office titled the announcement "THE OPPOSITE OF TRUMP," accusing the Trump administration of corruption and self-dealing, including through the viral $TRUMP memecoin.

"While the scam that is Donald Trump continues to hurt American families, California is fighting to make our economy work for people, not the powerful. No official should profit off their office - and we're putting stronger protections in place to ensure it doesn't happen in our state," Newsom said in the press release.

Trump's office did not immediately respond to CoinDesk's request for a comment.

It's unclear whether the ban covers meme tokens already in existence, such as $TRUMP.

President launched $TRUMP three days before his early 2025 inauguration, and the frenzy was so intense that its price rose from under $1 to $75 within a day or two, pushing its market capitalization to $14 billion. And then it crashed just as quickly, generating huge losses for small holders.

Data tracked by Nansen shows 988,905 buyers lost a combined $3.81 billion. Meanwhile, Trump's financial disclosure lists $636 million in royalties from the coin. Trump Organization affiliates own about 80% of the supply.

As of this writing, the token trades at $2.03.

Newsom, whose second and final term ends in January, is widely seen as a 2028 presidential contender.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 11:10

Key Events This Week: Jobs, Core PCE And ISM

It's very busy week ahead with US payrolls (Friday) and PCE (Wednesday) as the blockbuster releases. The US ISM (Thursday) will attract outsized attention given the spectacular beat on the S&P PMI last week that sent 10yr US yields +15.2bps higher on the day. A huge move for such a report. 

Global inflation will also be in focus outside of the US August PCE report with flash September CPI releases across Europe (Tuesday/Wednesday) and Tokyo CPI (Friday) all due. In Asia, investors will also be watching Chinese PMIs (Wednesday), the BoJ’s Tankan survey and summary of opinions (Thursday), as well as the RBA decision (tomorrow) where the market prices in a 93% probability of a hike. All that around month and quarter end on Wednesday.

In the US, attention will increasingly turn towards Friday’s September payrolls report. Following August’s stronger-than-expected gain of 162k, DB economists expect payrolls to rise by around 45k in September (Friday), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% and average hourly earnings growth steady at +0.3% month-on-month. Recent labor market indicators have remained reasonably firm, although some moderation after August’s strength would be consistent with a labou market that is cooling only gradually.

Ahead of Friday’s payrolls release, labor market data will begin arriving tomorrow with the August JOLTS report, before the September ADP employment release on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Together, these releases should help shape last minute expectations going into the official employment report. Note that last week saw claims at 197k, a rare dip below 200k.

Moving onto inflation, DB economists expect the August core PCE deflator (Wednesday) to rise by +0.27% month-on-month, slightly above July’s pace. The report will be accompanied by personal income and spending data, where economists expect gains of +0.5% and +0.6% respectively. Particular attention will be paid to the PCE release given the BEA’s annual benchmark revisions and methodology changes, which could alter the recent inflation profile and affect comparisons with previous months.

Elsewhere in the US, the Conference Board consumer confidence index (tomorrow) is expected to drop to 89.1 from 89.4, while the ISM manufacturing index (Thursday) is expected to rise to 55.0 from 54.6. Remember the S&P composite PMI hit 58.4 last week. We get the ISM services print next week. Wednesday’s final Q2 GDP release will also attract attention as it incorporates benchmark revisions that may reshape perceptions of recent growth trends. As we end the quarter, note that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is currently tracking at 5.02% for Q3.

Outside the US, European inflation data will dominate the calendar. Preliminary September CPI releases begin with Spain tomorrow, followed by Germany, France and Italy on Wednesday, before the Eurozone aggregate reading on Friday. DB  economists expect Eurozone headline HICP inflation to print at 3.75% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.53%. In Japan, today’s BoJ minutes from the July meeting will be followed by the Q3 Tankan survey and September meeting summary of opinions on Thursday, while economists expect Friday’s Tokyo CPI report to show a further firming in underlying inflation. China’s September PMIs are due on Wednesday, while the RBA announces its latest policy decision tomorrow, where DB economists expect a 25bp rate increase

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events courtesy of DB:

Monday September 28

• Data: US September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China August industrial profits, Japan August PPI services
• Central banks: Fed's Barkin speaks, ECB's Lagarde and Pereira speak, BoE’s Ramsden speaks, BoJ minutes of the July meeting
• Earnings: Jefferies

Tuesday September 29

• Data: US September Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, August JOLTS report, July FHFA house price index, UK August net consumer credit, M4, Italy July industrial sales, August PPI, Eurozone September economic confidence, Canada July GDP
• Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee and Williams speak, ECB's Kazimir, Nagel, Escriva and Cipollone speak, BoE’s Taylor speaks, RBA decision
• Earnings: Carnival

Wednesday September 30

• Data: US September ADP report, MNI Chicago PMI, August PCE, personal income, spending, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, China September PMIs, UK September Lloyds Business Barometer, Q2 current account balance, Japan August retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany September CPI, unemployment claims rate, August import price index, retail sales, France September CPI, August PPI, consumer spending, Italy September CPI, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, Australia August CPI
• Central banks: Fed's Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak, ECB's Schnabel speaks
• Earnings: Micron, Factset
• Other: G20 Trade Ministerial in Milwaukee (through October 1)

Thursday October 1

• Data: US September ISM index, total vehicles sales, August construction spending, initial jobless claims, Japan Q3 Tankan survey, Italy August unemployment rate, September manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone August unemployment rate, Canada September manufacturing PMI, Switzerland September CPI
• Central banks: Fed's Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Cook and Logan speak, ECB's Cipollone, Makhlouf, Lagarde, Sleijpen and Nagel speak, BoE's Bailey and Mann speak, BoJ’s summary of opinions from September meeting
• Earnings: Nike
• Other: China National Day holiday (through September 7)

Friday October 2

• Data: US September jobs report, August factory orders, Japan September Tokyo CPI, monetary base, August jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Italy August retail sales, Eurozone September CPI
• Central banks: ECB's Moulin, Cipollone, Vujcic and Nagel speak, BoE’s DMP survey

Finally, lookinat just the US, here is a list of the key economic data releases this week are the core PCE report on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements with Fed officials this week. 

Monday, September 28 

• There are no major data releases scheduled.
• 08:15 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak about banking supervision and regulation at the 2026 Military Banking Summit in Washington, D.C. Moderated Q&A is expected.
• 01:25 PM Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak about AI and emerging technologies at the 2026 Oakland Tech Week. Speech text is expected.
• 01:30 PM Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a fireside chat at the Working Class Insights Forum in Middleburg, Virginia. Moderated Q&A is expected. On September 24, President Barkin said that “if inflation is not going to come down relatively quickly, then you have to look in the mirror and say inflation looks like it’s been here for a while. So maybe we should do something about it. I think that’s what happened [at the September FOMC meeting].”

Tuesday, September 29 

• 09:00 AM Case-Shiller home price index, July (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, September (GS 89.0, consensus 89.2, last 89.4)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, August (GS 7,300k, consensus 7,225k, last 7,271k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings were roughly unchanged at 7.3mn in August based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
• 11:00 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will deliver virtual opening remarks to the Federal Reserve System Community Bank Cyber Workshop. Speech text is expected. 
• 12:40 PM Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak about the economic outlook at the Detroit Economic Club. Speech text and moderated Q&A with audience are expected. On September 23, Governor Barr noted that “further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”
• 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at an event organized by the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association. On September 21, President Goolsbee said that “supply shocks have come more frequently, hit harder and lasted longer,” adding that “once supply shocks to inflation become persistent, some of the logic behind ‘looking through’ no longer holds.”
• 02:00 PM New York Fed President John Williams speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at an event organized by the University of Buffalo. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On September 25, President Williams said that the Fed “can’t ignore supply shocks if they have a persistent effect on prices,” adding that it “needs to return inflation to target.”
• 03:00 PM Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak about payments at the 2026 Sibos Conference. Speech text is expected.

Wednesday, September 30 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, September (GS +75k, consensus +72k, last +38k)
• 08:30 AM Personal income, August (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.4%): Personal spending, August (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.2%), Core PCE price index, August (GS +0.27%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%), Core PCE price index (YoY), August (GS +3.17%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.3%), PCE price index, August (GS +0.33%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%), PCE price index (YoY), August (GS +3.58%, consensus +3.7%, last +3.7%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, in August. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.27% in August, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.17% after accounting for our forecast of the revisions that will result from the methodological changes that will be implemented with the August PCE report and will affect the portfolio management, legal services, and computer software and accessories components. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.33% and increased 3.58% from a year earlier.
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 third release (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.5%); Personal consumption, Q2 third release (GS +3.4%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.4%): We estimate no revision on net to Q2 GDP growth at +1.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger utilities and personal care details in the QSS offset by softer entertainment and public transportation details. We expect unrevised consumer spending growth at +3.4%. The third release of Q2 GDP will coincide with the 2026 annual update to the National Economic Accounts, which incorporates source data that are more complete than those previously available as well as methodological changes.
• 08:30 AM Advanced goods trade balance, August (GS -$116.0bn, consensus -$115.3bn, last -$118.9bn) 
• 01:30 PM Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver welcome remarks at the Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
• 03:25 PM Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver afternoon remarks at the Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
• 05:10 PM Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver a keynote address at the “Why Consumers and Economists See Different Economies” event in Chicago. 
• 06:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak in a fireside chat at the Council on Foreign Relations. Moderated and audience Q&A are expected. On September 20, President Kashkari noted that “inflation remains too high and that pressures have broadened beyond the oil-price shock of the Iran war.” He added that “as some of those conflicts go to the background… hopefully disinflation can take over, which will make the Fed’s job a lot easier.”

Thursday, October 1 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 26 (GS 200k, consensus 200k, last 197k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 19 (consensus 1,730k, last 1,719k)
• 09:05 AM Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (FOMC non-voter), Boston Fed President Susan Collins (FOMC non-voter) and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid will speak on a panel about economic trends in rural areas in Asheville, North Carolina. Moderated Q&A is expected. On September 22, President Collins said that she supported the decision to raise the fed funds rate at the September FOMC meeting, adding that “a somewhat more restrictive fed funds rate will help ensure that inflation durably returns to target.” On September 25, President Schmid also noted that he supported the FOMC decision because “we still haven’t fixed the inflation issue.”
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, September final (consensus 57.0, last 57.0)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, September (GS 54.6, consensus 55.0, last 54.6): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 54.6 in September, reflecting a slight headwind from residual seasonality and a modest decline in regional manufacturing surveys on net—our manufacturing survey tracker declined by 0.6pt to 56.1 in September—that is offset by upward pressure from convergence toward the level implied by other manufacturing surveys (which the ISM index is currently below).
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, August (GS +0.4%, consensus flat, last -0.5%)
• 10:00 AM Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at the “FRED Con: Navigating Trust, AI and Storytelling in World of Data” event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected.
• 01:30 PM Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak about the US economy and monetary policy at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected.
• 03:00 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak about modernizing financial regulation at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C. Speech text and moderated Q&A with audience are expected.
• 03:30 PM Fed Governor Lisa Cook and New York Fed President John Williams speak: New York Fed President John Williams will moderate a discussion with Governor Lisa Cook at a central bank panel hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, September (GS 16.1mn, consensus 16.3mn, last 16.8mn)
• 06:45 PM Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak in a moderated Q&A at the Eleventh District Appreciation Event in Dallas.

Friday, October 2 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, September (GS +80k, consensus +90k, last +162k); Private payroll employment, September (GS +75k, consensus +87k, last +127k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, September (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.1%, last 4.1%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 80k in September, reflecting a firm signal from alternative data. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month in September, reflecting negative calendar effects. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% in September, reflecting a decline in continuing claims but a relatively high bar for rounding down to 4.0% from an unrounded 4.14% in August.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, August (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.8%)
• 10:00 AM Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will give welcome remarks at the Fifth Annual Workshop on the Macroeconomic Implications of Migration hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Speech text is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 11:00

Bloodbath At The Mouse House: Disney Legal Chief Warns Of "Much Smaller Organization" As AI Layoffs Loom

The happiest place on Earth is about to become a lot more miserable for the rank-and-file at Disney's corporate headquarters. Just weeks after we detailed the ongoing corporate bloodbath at the Mouse House following disastrous earnings and streaming losses, another brutal reality check has been delivered to Disney employees. This time, the guillotine is being rolled into the Legal and Global Affairs (LGA) department, and the executioner's weapon of choice is artificial intelligence.

According to a leaked internal memo obtained by Deadline, Disney's Chief Legal and Global Affairs Officer, Horacio Gutierrez, delivered a blunt, unsentimental warning to his nearly 1,000-member global staff: prepare for the slaughter. In the missive, Gutierrez warned that Disney is undergoing a "transformation process," stating explicitly that the LGA will soon be a "much smaller organization than it is today, and some of you will personally be affected by decisions we make in this process."

In true corporate double-speak, Gutierrez avoided directly stating that machines are taking over white-collar jobs, but the writing is on the wall. He noted that the company will be taking a "dispassionate look" at every aspect of operations to find cost-effective efficiencies. The grim reality for employees was buried in the corporate jargon, with Gutierrez noting that the company must consider new models, including "automating certain workflows by leveraging the latest technologies, moving to self-service models where appropriate, engaging alternative legal providers and others, and new expanded share services, even outsourcing."

Translation: You are being replaced by an algorithm, and whatever tasks the machines can't handle will be shipped overseas or outsourced to the lowest bidder.

The timing of Gutierrez's chilling memo is certainly no coincidence. It dropped on the exact same day Disney announced the hiring of Karandeep Anand - the former CEO of Character.AI - as the company's first Chief Technology Officer. As we noted in our previous coverage of Disney's desperate pivot to stem systemic financial bleeding, tapping a heavy-hitting AI executive to report directly to Disney boss Josh D'Amaro was a flashing red indicator that the company is looking to slash human capital costs drastically under the guise of technological innovation.

Gutierrez even invoked D'Amaro's name in his corporate death warrant, stating that when teams work "smarter," Disney can serve fans at "lower costs," freeing up capital for content and infrastructure. He added that D'Amaro's vision succeeds by "embracing technology to amplify what makes it great, not by clinging to the way things always have been done." In other words, paying human lawyers and government relations staff a living wage is now considered an archaic anchor weighing down the balance sheet.

This latest internal panic follows the expiration of a "voluntary early retirement" offer pushed by Chief People Officer Sonia Coleman in August - a classic corporate maneuver designed to thin the herd before the involuntary pink slips are handed out. With executives openly admitting on their August 5 earnings call that more cuts were on the horizon following the April and July layoffs, the anxiety inside Disney is palpable. The magic kingdom is rapidly transforming into a sterile, automated, and outsourced corporate shell as Bob Iger's regime scrambles to appease Wall Street algorithms with algorithms of their own.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 10:50

Freddie Mac: Multifamily Delinquency Rate Rises To Multi-Decade High

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (also known as "GSEs") have released their August reports on their mortgage portfolios and mortgage delinquencies. Both are reporting that serious delinquencies in multifamily are rising to multiyear highs. Freddie Mac, in particular, shows delinquency rates at the highest level in more than twenty years.

(These numbers reflect the condition of mortgages in each agency's portfolio, which are a major part of the overall mortgage market. Fannie and Freddie have expanded their multifamily activities aggressively in 2026 and are likely behind nearly half of newly originated apartment loans. Behind commercial banks and thrifts, "the Agency and GSE portfolios and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) hold the second-largest portion [of the multifamily market] accounting for roughly 23% of the total."

For August, seriously delinquent multifamily mortgages (60+ days delinquent) at Fannie Mae fell to 0.57 percent. That's down from July's rate of 0.62 percent, and it was down from August 2025's total of 0.68 percent. Nonetheless, Fannie's delinquency rate has risen significantly since December 2022 when the rate was 0.24 percent.

Freddie Mac's delinquency report, on the other hand, shows delinquencies (60+ days delinquent) above the Great-Recession peak. During August, Freddie reported multifamily serious delinquency rate was 0.64 percent. That's up from July 2026, which showed a delinquency rate of .6 percent. It is also up from August 2025's rate of 0.48 percent. The Freddie Mac report shows delinquency rates heading upward consistently since February of this year.

Comparing for August of each year, August 2026's delinquency rate at Freddie exceeds that of August 2011, the previous peak year for delinquencies, when August delinquencies reached 0.35 percent. This is the highest in well over 20 years. At Fannie, August's delinquency rate still remains below both the covid peak and the earlier 2010 peak.

In any case, delinquencies remain elevated for both Fannie and Freddie and this trend likely reflects slowing rent growth and waning demand for rentals as employment stagnates and the cost of living rises in areas outside housing. As Multifamily Dive reported this week:

The share of renters who had difficulty paying for housing jumped in 2025 and was concentrated among middle-income tenants, according to research from the Urban Institute released today. Tenants are increasingly struggling to afford both rent and utilities, as costs for essentials rise and U.S. households spend a growing share of their income on housing.

Overall, one in five renter households either paid rent late or missed a payment in 2025 - up from 16.5% in 2024 - marking the highest-ever percentage since the researchers began tracking the measure in 2017.

This trend is likely to persist into the present since BLS data shows that year-over-year inflation-adjusted hourly average earnings has been negative for the past five months. Moreover, landlords are hardly exempt from price inflation and they must continue to contend with rising prices in services and materials necessary for regular maintenance of multifamily units.

It is also getting more difficult for owners of troubled properties to refinance their way out of the problem. Interest rates have been heading up rapidly, the 10-year Treasury yield - the foundation of calculating real-estate-loan interest rates in many cases, has surged over the past week to over 5.2 percent. The 10-year was at 4.6 percent a month ago. (Not surprisingly, the average 30-year fixed single-family mortgage rate has also surged above 7.4 percent this week. Some observers are now suggesting the rate may rise to 8 percent by the end of the year.) This overall trend will make it much more difficult for many overextended multifamily owners to "extend and pretend" with new loans.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 10:35

The Strange Case Of NAC: The Supplement The FDA Says Isn't One

N-acetyl cysteine, or NAC, is one of the most popular amino acid supplements in America. People take it for liver support after a long night, for their lungs and, lately, as a longevity staple. One brand among dozens, NOW, said in 2021 that it alone had sold "millions, perhaps billions" of NAC pills with no adverse event reports. NAC is also the latest supplement to land under the Eye of Sauron, otherwise known as the FDA.

The FDA's weapon is a clause in federal law: an ingredient approved as a drug, or authorized for serious study as one, before it was sold as a supplement can't be a supplement. The FDA has used the clause against red yeast rice, whose active compound is the same molecule as Merck's cholesterol drug lovastatin; against a form of vitamin B6 in 2009; against CBD after the seizure drug Epidiolex was approved; and against NMN in 2022, a ban it reversed in September 2025 after an industry lawsuit.

NAC's case is simpler on paper. It was approved as a drug in 1963, before it was sold as a supplement, the FDA says. What the agency has done with that fact since is anything but simple.

The latest turn: the FDA's own regulatory calendar set July 2026 as the target for a proposed rule on whether NAC can be sold as a supplement. July came and went with nothing published. When the White House released its 2026 regulatory agenda on July 30, the proposal was still listed with a July 2026 target, a date that had already passed.

The law firm Covington says the rule appears to cover NAC. If so, it would be the rulemaking the FDA said in 2022 it was "considering." Until it arrives, NAC sits where it has since 2020: officially not a supplement, sold as one because the FDA has chosen not to enforce.

It started with hangover pills. In July 2020, the FDA sent a warning letter to a company selling them, and buried in it was a new argument about NAC. According to the FDA, NAC "was approved as a new drug" on September 14, 1963, which meant products containing it were "excluded from the dietary supplement definition."

Attack On NAC!

Due to the looming threat of enforcement, in May 2021 Amazon said it was "removing the products in question from our store." The Council for Responsible Nutrition, a supplement trade group, petitioned the FDA in June 2021. The Natural Products Association followed in August, and in December it sued, calling the move "a regulatory sneak attack by the FDA."

In March 2022, the FDA denied the petitions' core request and repeated that "NAC is excluded from the definition of a dietary supplement." Then it blinked. Final guidance that August said the agency would "exercise enforcement discretion" for certain NAC products, since "our initial review has not revealed safety concerns," and that it was "considering initiating rulemaking." NAC was back on Amazon by late August, and the NPA dropped its suit that November.

Recall:

• The FDA said in 2020 that NAC isn't a supplement because it was approved as a drug in 1963.
• Amazon pulled NAC in 2021, then relisted it in 2022 after the FDA said it would hold off.
• The FDA's July 2026 target for a rule came and went, so NAC remains in legal limbo.

What NAC Actually Does

NAC is a building block for glutathione, the body's main internal antioxidant. That's why hospitals reach for it after an acetaminophen overdose. The IV version, Acetadote, works by restoring glutathione, which the liver burns through trying to neutralize the overdose.

In a 2018 trial, 1,200 mg of NAC a day for 30 days restored glutathione levels for people with deficiencies, and their endurance improved with it. NAC supports glutathione when you're short on it; it isn't a booster for everyone.*

It's also very safe. A review of 41 studies in patients with chronic lung disease, at 600 to 3,000 mg a day, found the "safety profile was similar at both the high and standard doses."

Meanwhile, many have been turning to NAC for potential longevity benefits. At Baylor College of Medicine, Dr. Rajagopal Sekhar's team gave 12 older adults a mix of glycine and NAC, which they call GlyNAC, for 16 weeks against 12 on placebo. They reported faster walking, a stronger grip and red blood cell glutathione up 225%. Granted - the doses were big, about 7 grams each of glycine and NAC a day for a 70 kg adult.

And now, where to get some

Neuro Ignite is a caffeine-free daily energy mix offered by IQ Biologix, built around 1,000 mg of NAC per dose - right inside the 600 to 3,000 mg a day range covered by the safety review above. Each two-scoop serving adds 1,000 mg each of vitamin C, taurine and glycine, plus magnesium and creatine - and beet root. So instead of stimulating your nervous system, it gives your brain the raw materials it runs on - eight ingredients covering antioxidant defense, cellular energy and neurotransmitter production

The 450 mg of creatine contributes to 3 to 5 grams a day that sports nutrition researchers recommend (grab that here). 

Right now it's buy one, get one free: add two jars to your cart and the second is free. That's 60 servings for $44.95. The deal ends Sunday, October 11, or sooner if we sell out.

Support yourself & support the site: get yours here.

*These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 10:20

Leftists Rage After Judge Judy Says "If You Don't Like America, Leave..."

The fundamental disconnect in the brains of progressives, the false idea that they constantly promote, is that America is a dry erase board that can be wiped away and rewritten however they please.  Progressives believe that "change" is the ultimate ideal and all change is good as long as it serves their interests in the moment.  

They believe every system must be constantly rewritten and adjusted to fit their quickly shifting world views and principles (or lack of principles).  They give no credence to the concept of eternal principles, eternal morals, or natural rights.  Everything is up for grabs, everything can be upended and replaced. 

As Judge Judy puts it, they think they can "come into our home and redecorate".

In other words, America welcomes people who are willing to assimilate to the values the nation was founded on.  Anyone not willing to do this is not an American and frankly, they never will be.  

The reality is that leftists don't get to change everything they don't like (which is most things).  And if they hate America that much, maybe they should leave the country and find another country they do like.  This is how societies around the world operate, but only the western world is expected to "adapt" to the demands of activists and foreigners.  What US society demands is that these people adapt to America

This is something leftists and foreign agitators will never agree to, because they want to deconstruct the US into a socialist authoritarian system, but they also want to keep all the wealth and comfort that the previous free market system provided. 

In other words, they have no principles other than to steal everything, and they rationalize their thieving ways by pontificating on the supposed "national crimes" of the past.  As with all communist movements, woke ideologues pretend that they are victims of history and therefore all of their problems today are the fault of someone else.  

These people are only making Judge Judy's point for her.  They are essentially saying that the US is built on so much injustice and "racism" and genocide that it deserves to be burned down and rebuilt.  At no point do they ever acknowledge that they can simply leave and go to a country that fits their world view.  Why?  Because leftists don't change themselves and their conditions, and they certainly never build anything of value on their own.  

Their only survival trait is to take what other people have built.  

"If you want things to change with the government you stay, you fight, you vote, you organize, and you are a part of the change." @AnaNavarro weighs in after Judge Judy made comments about America's political climate. pic.twitter.com/8BFq0iIFwX

— The View (@TheView) September 25, 2026

When the European colonists came to America, there was nothing.  No nation existed.  No enduring infrastructure, no sweeping societies, no system of subsistence.  There was a scattering of primitive tribes engaged in constant war with each other for centuries.  Genocide was common.  Slavery was common.  Even cannibalism was common.  The "Native Americans" were not "native", they took the land from the tribes that came before them.

In fact, many weaker tribes would turn to the European colonists for help to stop stronger tribes from wiping them out.  

In the old world, colonialism and conquest was required to prevent barbarians from crashing through the gates and simply taking what the colonials had built.  As far as slavery is concerned, every civilization in existence including the "indigenous Americans" participated in slavery. 

African slaves became slaves because they were captured by other African tribes and sold to Europeans or into the Arab slave trade (which was far worse because they regularly castrated male slaves and many never survived the procedure). 

Black American who’s a descendant of slaves stands with Judge Judy

“I completely agree with what she said. As a Black American descendant of slaves, I have a beautiful life in America, and I don't want America to change”

“I think America should be great for Americans, and if… pic.twitter.com/EClRPBg9jg

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) September 26, 2026

None of the black activists complaining about Judge Judy's comments have ever been slaves.  None of them have ever been affected by slavery.  Every single one of them has the same equality of opportunity as anyone else.  What they are demanding is equality of outcome, and that's unacceptable. 

What leftists refuse to admit is that their movement to change the US does not take precedence over the people who built America and the people who have truly made America their home.  It is not the duty of Americans to adapt to socialist Utopian thinking; that's not how a free society works. 

In fact, if leftists don't leave and continue their agenda of sabotage, if they continue their subversive war, they can be easily kicked out.  "Democracy" is not to be used as a stepping stone to socialism, and the public's tolerance can only be pushed so far.       

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 10:15

Starship Moves Closer To Commercial Service With Successful Next-Gen Starlink Deployment

Summary:

• SpaceX stock up half a percent
• Starship Inches Closer To Commercialization
• SpaceX Deploys V3 Starlink Satellites for the First Time 
• SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit After Engine Failure Scare

Starship Inches Closer To Commercialization

First orbital flight of Starship successful! https://t.co/xVNsnUKTm0 — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 28, 2026

For the first time, Starship has deployed SpaceX's next-generation broadband satellite in low Earth orbit. 

*SPACEX: STARSHIP DEPLOYING STARLINK SATELLITES

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 28, 2026

These new V3 satellites offer roughly 10 times the capacity per satellite of V2 satellites currently in low Earth orbit: about 1,000 gigabits per second of download capacity, compared with about 96 Gbps.

Today's deployment marks Starship's transition from a test vehicle toward a working commercial launch system that will significantly reduce the cost per kilogram and make the space economy more possible.

Starship has begun deploying its payload of 26 @Starlink V3 satellites. This deployment sequence will take ~30 minutes pic.twitter.com/ycIdAx5Lbe

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 28, 2026

Starship's first commercial service is set for 2028. 

SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit After Engine Failure Scare

SpaceX's massive Starship rocket launched from Starbase in South Texas at 7:49 a.m. local time, beginning a mission that could last nearly 10 hours. However, Elon Musk's rocket company confirmed an engine failure and said Starship would not enter orbit.

BBG: SPACEX CONFIRMS THAT STARSHIP WILL NOT ENTER ORBIT FOLLOWING AN ENGINE FAILURE

News of the engine mishap sent shares to premarket lows, down about 2%.

The engine failure will prevent the planned deployment of 26 upgraded Starlink satellites.

BBG: SPACEX FORGOES ORBITAL DEPLOYMENT OF NEW V3 STARLINK SATELLITES ON STARSHIP MISSION BECAUSE OF FAILED STARSHIP ENGINE

However, despite the engine failure, SpaceX later said an attempt to reach orbit might still be possible.

BBG: SPACEX CONSIDERING STARSHIP ORBIT ATTEMPT AFTER ENGINE WENT OUT+

That whipsawed shares back to unchanged in the premarket. 

And now: SPACEX: STARSHIP REACHES ORBIT FOR THE FIRST TIME

Watch Live Feed:

Starship’s 14th flight is set to launch on Monday, Sept 28. The 75-minute launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. CT. Live coverage of the mission starts ~35 minutes before launch → https://t.co/uQKQvgaTmJ

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 27, 2026

* * * 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 09:50

Trump Admin To Focus More On Northern Border Security Over Next 2 Years: Homan

Authored by Timothy Frudd and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

White House border czar Tom Homan plans to put more focus on security at the northern border during the last two years of President Donald Trump's administration.

In an interview airing on Sept. 26, Homan told Epoch Times senior editor Jan Jekielek that the U.S. - Canada border is a national security vulnerability and could receive greater attention after the administration beefed up security on the border with Mexico.

"The next two years, I'm really concentrating on the northern border," he said. "The southern border is the highest security we've ever had."

Homan said: "Now that we have the money and the time ... I think we need to dedicate more resources to the northern border, whether it's manpower, technology, [or] infrastructure."

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) recorded 563 total apprehensions along the northern border in August and 586 in July.

The United States and Canada share more than 5,500 miles of border.

Homan said that security at the northern border has not been ignored, but that the Trump administration concentrated its efforts on the southern border because "you send the firemen where the biggest fire is."

Last month, CBP announced that daily apprehensions at the southern border were 94 percent lower than under the Biden administration.

Noting a pattern of decline in illegal border crossings and apprehensions, CBP said the border was "more secure than at any point in history."

Homan told Jekielek that since the southern border is now under control, the administration needs to begin "amping up the northern border," which he described as a "huge national security vulnerability."

"Canada's immigration laws are very lax," he said. "[It] doesn't take a lot to get into Canada."

Citing intelligence reports and personal experience, Homan said national security threats can enter Canada and then cross into the United States a lot easier than directly entering the United States.

Homan also said that drug trafficking along the northern border is another issue for both the United States and Canada.

The U.S. government has been working with Indian reservations on the American side of the border to increase drug enforcement, which he said was a problem.

The White House border czar suggested that cooperation with Canada is "one of the biggest things" needed for effective security along the northern border.

"I think the United States and Canada both want ... [to] shut down cross-border crime because it's not good for either country," he said.

"I think we're both concerned with shutting down the criminal element, shutting down the drugs, and illegal immigration, especially those who pose a threat to our nations."

Homan told Jekielek that he visited all the northern border sectors over the past three months and that the individual areas have different requests for security improvements.

They included additional boots on the ground, technology, drones, air assets, infrastructure, and barriers, he said.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Northern Border Security Enhancement and Review Act on Sept. 16.

The bill would require the Department of Homeland Security to assess northern border threats, update the department's northern border strategy, and provide relevant oversight information to Congress.

It would also require CBP's Air and Marine Operations to develop performance measures regarding efforts to secure the border between ports of entry.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 09:35

Nvidia Launches New Tool To Shut Down Rogue Agents, Unveils $150 Billion Stock Buyback, Largest Ever

Perhaps Jensen Huang was getting tired of seeing charts like this, showing that his stock is up "only" 20% in 2026 (and has gone nowhere since May) while the rest of the AI ecosystem keeps rising...

... so going into the last week of them month, the billionaire CEO took matters into his own hands and amid a flurry of news that OpenAI agents had breached many more systems than previously revealed, including US government platforms, leading the company to pause training of its latest AI models, Nvidia introduced a new double-layered artificial intelligence security system that it says would’ve prevented the recent high-profile breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI’s AI models.

Today, with over 100 industry partners, we introduced the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform, bringing together OpenShell and Sentry.

Artificial intelligence is extraordinary technology that will advance discovery, productivity, security, health, and prosperity for generations to… pic.twitter.com/dReAxwpRUn

— Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang) September 28, 2026

The semiconductor giant, which has been rapidly expanding its product lineup beyond chips, is rolling out two open-source software security tools - OpenShell and Sentry - that can be run on its hardware (of course, after all those NVDA chips won't sell themselves) and are called the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform.  They’re designed to control what AI agents can access in real time and shut them down when they break the rules.

If cutting-edge labs had been using this technology to evaluate their AI models early on, it could have warded off the Hugging Face attack, Justin Boitano, Nvidia’s vice president of enterprise AI, said during a briefing with reporters ahead of Monday’s announcement. “From what we know, this new security platform could have stopped the breach,” he said. 

As Bloomberg notes, misconduct by autonomous agents, including the Hugging Face incident in July, has roiled the AI industry and led to calls to slow down work on the technology. With the new product dubbed the Open Agent Safety Platform, Nvidia is offering a way to prevent breaches without curbing AI development. Jensen Huang, has repeatedly downplayed the risk of AI slipping out of human control.

Boitano didn’t comment on whether OpenAI or rival Anthropic PBC have plans to use its new system to monitor their training runs, deferring to the companies.

In recent days, Huang has cast safety concerns as an engineering challenge, rather than something that requires more regulation or global coordination. He joined US President Donald Trump in pushing back on assertions from some AI developers that the technology could lead to human extinction, but he also insisted that AI must be rigorously safety-tested. 

Huang’s engineering solution to the AI safety problem has two parts: OpenShell, a software product that Nvidia already previewed at its hallmark technology-focused conference in March, can run on Nvidia’s Vera central processing units. It enables users to set rules for what AI agents can access and enforce them in real time. The software is open source, meaning it can be used and adapted freely.

Nvidia Sentry, meanwhile, is a new product that can run on the chipmaker’s BlueField data processing units. It’s designed to provide an extra layer of AI monitoring that polices agents and intervenes to isolate any that act suspiciously, the company said.

“We believe this added security layer will allow the industry to test even the most advanced AI systems safely,” Boitano said of the Sentry product. “It can quarantine a suspicious agent in milliseconds.”

Nvidia agreed earlier this month to acquire Hugging Face, a platform for open-source AI models and related software, for about $13 billion. 

OpenAI’s recent incidents — including a breach of an Australian government system, as well as attempts to access dozens of US government and university websites — happened when its models escaped testing environments that were supposed to be secure. As the problems proliferated, OpenAI said late Friday it would pause training of its most capable AI models. Back in July, Anthropic also disclosed that its agents broke out of what was supposed to be an isolated testing space.

And just in case the announcement wasn't a sufficiently strong catalyst to push the stock price higher, shortly after the report Nvidia increased the size of its share buyback plan by $150 billion, increasing the total remaining amount authorized to $235 billion. The buyback beats Apple’s record $110bn, set in 2024, for the largest in US corporate history. 

Nvidia will complete the buyback through fiscal 2028, the Santa Clara, California-based company said in a statement on Monday. 
The AI boom has made Nvidia the world’s most valuable company and the chipmaker’s shares have jumped 20% this year. In August, the company projected sales growth of 70% for the next fiscal year and Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has worked to tamp down concerns about an AI bubble. 

“Nvidia’s growth is being driven by a once-in-a-generation platform shift to AI and accelerated computing,” Huang said in the statement. “This authorization reflects our confidence in the long-term opportunity ahead.”

Shares rose 1.3% to $228 in premarket trading in New York. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 09:16

Futures Slide As Oil Jumps, Bond Selloff Resumes After Trump Spurns Iran Offer

US futures are lower with Tech underperforming, alongside a drop in treasuries, as fading hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the Iran war sent oil prices higher and reignited worries that inflation is heating up. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are down around 0.5% with Nasdaq futures sliding by 0.8% as semis and memory stocks underpeform the group. Defensives are leading cyclicals with credit cards, defense, energy, insurance, and restaurants acting as pockets of strength. Oil is sharply higher after Iran stuck to its seven-day proposal for reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, saying it won’t soften its conditions, while Donald Trump sent mixed signals about his willingness to reach a deal. He told Axios that Tehran has overplayed its hand but added that he expects negotiations to resume this week. Adding to tensions, UK police are investigating a potential terror plot after five men were arrested near an air base used in US strikes against Iran. The jump in oil has puled bond yields 4-7 bps higher as the curve flattens, the 10Y trading at 5.21% after hitting a new multi-decade high of 5.23% earlier. The DXY dollar index is higher despite weakness in USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Commodities are mixed with energy leading, metals under pressure dragged by precious which appears to be driven by temporary higher margin requirements in China for Golden Week; ags are lower. More than a dozen Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week beginning Monday, and heavy US economic slate includes September employment report Friday. Today's US economic data slate includes only September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30 a.m. Fed speakers include Bowman (8:15 a.m.), Cook (1:25 p.m.) and Barkin (1:30 p.m.).  

In premarket, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 0.9% after its board authorized an additional $150 billion under the company’s existing share repurchase program, increasing the total remaining amount authorized to $235 billion (Meta Platforms (META) -2.5%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -1%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.5%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.5%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%)

• Precious metals miners are broadly lower, following a drop in gold and silver prices as persistent tensions in the Middle East push up government bond yields and dent the appeal of non-yielding metals.
• Shares of oil majors rise.
• Kodiak Sciences (KOD) jumps 66% after saying the company has met key endpoints for both Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted in the Phase 3 study in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration.
• NetEase ADRs (NTES) rise 4% after Morgan Stanley names it top pick among peers, expecting the firm’s new Ananta game to become a blockbuster launch and a core growth driver next year.
• SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) drop 3% as reports of subsidiary Solidigm’s IPO plans trigger concerns over the rationale behind the move.
• Snowflake (SNOW), a maker of software that helps organize and analyze corporate data in the cloud, falls 4% as the company intends to offer $3.5 billion of convertible senior notes.
• Teleflex (TFX) inches 1.4% higher after BofA Global Research upgraded the medical device supplier to buy, citing upside to earnings.

In other corporate news, Boeing identified an issue with the 737 Max jet’s navigation system that could increase pilot workload during landing and may delay the arrival of its latest narrowbody models. ExxonMobil agreed to pump oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan’s shale fields as the Texas energy giant takes its fracking expertise overseas. McDonald’s faces a key challenge in winning back the cost-conscious diners who believe its menu has become too expensive.

Investors are navigating geopolitical risks and growing price pressures even as corporate profitability remains robust and major economies show resilience. For now, oil is keeping bond yields near multi-year highs, with the pressure from rates feeding through to other asset classes. Stock futures are lower after a weekend of largely negative Middle East headlines revived inflation worries. In big AI news this morning, Nvidia introduced a new double-layered AI security system designed to stop AI agents from going awry; this was followed by an announcement of a $150 billion stock buybacks, the biggest in history; the news sent the stock in the green after sliding earlier.  Oil is rising again after Iran said it won’t soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump sent mixed messages about reaching a deal.

“A lot is moving against equities at the moment: oil is on the rise and bond yields are going through the roof,” said Laurent Lamagnere at AlphaValue. “It’s quite hard for me to be optimistic.”

The recent spike in yields means that month-end reallocations by balanced US equity-bond funds could weigh on stocks in the near term, according to Christopher Dembik, senior investment adviser at Pictet Asset Management. 

“Around $25 billion to $30 billion worth of equities are expected to be sold, with the proceeds reinvested in bonds,” Dembik said. “This could put some downward pressure on US large caps over the next few trading sessions.”

Nvidia’s new security tools are designed to control what AI agents can access in real time and shut them down when they break the rules. That may calm nerves over the technology following following fresh disclosures about breaches. OpenAI said another agentic AI system that was being trained in what was supposed to be a secured environment was able to gain access to the web to reach a third-party chatbot.

Meanwhile, with so much going on - from AI euphoria and fear to geopolitical drama - Bloomberg notes that traders are increasingly looking at dispersion trade opportunities for winners and losers. The trend is likely to continue, with JPMorgan derivatives strategists highlighting that midterms could catalyze single stock volatility. They recommend buying VIX October call spreads, noting that the VIX curve is well below prior midterm setups.

Goldman strategists also see potential for more volatility ahead, enabled by narrow market breadth. A measure of S&P 500 breadth has reached the lowest level since the dot-com bubble, they say, with the strength of the AI trade masking broader index weakness.
There’s not much on the macro calendar today, but the rest of the week will be busy, with core PCE on Wednesday, ISM’s manufacturing survey on Thursday and payrolls due Friday. Bessent said on Fox News at the weekend that Fed policymakers should keep an “open mind” on interest rates.

Elsewhere in tech, SK Hynix is considering a potential US listing of its Solidigm flash data storage subsidy. The Chinese government signaled it may allow companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance to buy Nvidia’s new RTX Pro 5500 chips, The Information reported. And Anthropic CEO was said to meet Trump on Sunday evening, bringing together two men at opposite ends of the AI safety debate.

The growing prospect of rate hikes saw gold extend its losses for September to more than 6%. Rising yields have dimmed the allure of the precious metal, which pays no interest. Investors see about a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, up from about 65% on Friday.

In trade news, the US and China detailed a plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each country, following last week’s summit. Trump said he is looking “very seriously” at implementing a US ban on diesel exports to combat high prices. 

Data due later this week are likely to give investors more reason to worry that price pressures are building. A report on Wednesday is forecast to show a 0.5% increase in August inflation-adjusted personal spending, which would be the biggest advance in just over a year. The release will also include the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Both the personal consumption expenditures price index and the core measure are projected to quicken in August from a month earlier. Friday’s payrolls data will probably show that hiring remained solid.

European stocks are resilient in the face of higher energy prices with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%. In the UK, shares in homebuilders surged after the government announced a loan program to help first-time buyers. Taylor Wimpey Plc rose 12%, while Persimmon Plc rallied 15% and Barratt Redrow Plc advanced 12%. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Shares in UK homebuilders surge after the government announces a loan program to help first-time buyers purchase new-build homes. Taylor Wimpey rises as much as 23%, the steepest gain since May 2009
• Suedzucker shares rally as much as 7.9%, the most in six months, after the agri-food business delivered results ahead of expectations and raised its revenue and earnings guidance for the year
• Dormakaba rises as much as 6.7%, the biggest jump since April 2025, after the security system maker was upgraded at Jefferies. Analysts say the de-rating has gone too far and that the upcoming capital markets day could provide a catalyst
• Bridgepoint Group shares rise as much as 5.4% after Citi increased its price target on the private equity firm by a fifth, having adjusted its models to reflect the acquisition of US real estate investment platform Kayne
• Fagron climbs as much as 7.6%, the most since mid-February, as ING Bank lifts its price target on the pharmaceutical company and adds to its Benelux Favourites list
• Keller Group rises as much as 5.3% as RBC says the ground engineering specialist’s announcement of a $650m contract variation order on the I-40 highway reconstruction project will help to de-risk growth in the US
• Maire rises as much as 4.5%, the most in a month, as Citi initiates on the Italian engineering group with a buy rating, saying it’s attractively levered to rising global gas investment
• Irish Residential Properties REIT jumps by 24%, propelling shares to their highest level since 2022, after the firm received takeover offers from Baring International Investment. Shares are still trading below the offer price
• European gambling companies’ shares slide after Brazil issued a provisional measure on Friday banning all forms of online gambling. Entain said it expects underlying Ebitda to hit the lower-end of its guided range following the ban
• European miners dropped as copper and other base metals retreated after data showed slower growth in industrial profits in China
• Danieli shares fall as much as 13%, the most since April 4, after the steel-making-equipment company reported full-year results and issued guidance that Banca Akros described as more prudent than expected

Asian stocks fell, with the tech sector leading the losses, as an increase in oil prices spurred concern over inflation and sent bond yields higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5% following a 1.2% gain last week. Chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix were the biggest drags, losing over 4% each, as trading in Korean markets resumed after holidays. For SK Hynix, media reports of a potential listing of its US subsidiary added to worries over the firm’s complex ownership structure. The Kospi lost about 2%. Tech stocks also slumped in China, dragging the CSI 300 Index to a one-year low. Shares of semiconductor firms slid following a report that the nation may allow local firms such as Alibaba to buy Nvidia’s new chips. Meanwhile, shares of optical-component makers declined after a proposed US bill targeted Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink.

“Asian markets start on the back foot given the gap higher in global oil prices to kick off the week,” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com. “Focus will turn to US macroeconomic fundamentals and Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations as the week unfolds.”

In FX, USD/JPY was knocked lower after a warning from Japan’s top currency official. It’s been an ugly session for precious metals with spot gold and silver under relentless pressure, lower by 3.3% and 5% respectively.

In rates, US bonds are getting sold across the curve. The 10-year yield is up 7bps and at its highest level since 2007. UK and German equivalents are up 5bps. Treasury futures begin the US day near session lows, tracking losses for European bonds amid a sharp rise in oil prices after US President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are cheaper by 4bp to 8bp across the curve with belly-led losses flattening 5s30s spread by 3bp; 10-year is higher by around 7bp at 5.23% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by around 2bp. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names so far. For this week dealers anticipate around $50 billion, including a Paramount debt package that may involve $32 billion of bonds. Treasury auctions resume next week with 3-year new issue and 10- and 30-year reopenings. More than a dozen Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week beginning Monday, and heavy US economic slate includes September employment report Friday.   

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures rose as much as 4.5% amid standoff between Iran and US on ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is up over 3% with Iran refusing to soften its conditions on Hormuz after the US rejected its latest reopening proposal. Bitcoin sheds 2.4%.

US economic data slate includes only September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30 a.m. Also ahead this week are consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, 2Q GDP revision, personal income and spending (with PCE price indexes) and ISM manufacturing. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (8:15 a.m.), Cook (1:25 p.m.) and Barkin (1:30 p.m.).

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country is prepared to resume fighting with the United States but has not yet abandoned diplomacy after President Donald Trump publicly rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. NBC
• Mediators are expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US: RTRS
• Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war. WSJ
• Trump announced that he approved new fuel economy standards that terminate former President Biden's EV mandate, while he said the new standards will take the waste out of building cars in the US, which means lower prices, and noted that more than USD 100bln is being invested in American autos under his administration: RTRS
• The US and China plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each other. Trump said he made “tremendous progress” with Xi Jinping at last week’s summit. BBG
• China’s industrial enterprises saw their earnings grow at the weakest since they fell last November, highlighting the limits of a recovery disproportionately driven by elevated oil costs and sectors linked to artificial intelligence. BBG
• Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Monday markets should take at face value the "very clear" message Tokyo and Washington delivered last week on the yen, ‌signalling his resolve to act against excessive falls in the currency. RTRS
• European natural gas moved higher as traders weighed the extension of a supply force majeure from Qatar against mixed signals on talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
• Nvidia introduced a new double-layered AI security system that it says would’ve prevented the recent high-profile breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI’s AI models. BBG
• The turbulence that has rocked private credit funds for the past year showed signs of easing in September, with the flood of redemption requests from retail investors slowing and performance improving. FT
• The Fed should keep an “open mind” on rates, Scott Bessent told Fox, arguing AI-driven productivity gains and deregulation will help contain inflation. He spoke ahead of a week of key data including consumer spending and nonfarm payrolls. Furthermore, he said that core inflation has been very stable and fell in recent months. BBG
• Trump said had an incredible meeting with Chinese President Xi, also noted that he's having dinner tonight with Anthropic's head at 10pm and will be meeting with Anthropic on Tuesday, adds Anthropic's Dario is very highly respected.
• US President Trump said he will talk about AI with Anthropic's CEO Amodei, who was having dinner at the White House on Sunday, while Trump said he would tell Amodei, "let's go, let's win."

Iran War

• US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
• US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
• US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn't want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
• US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
• Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran's conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets and following mixed geopolitical headlines over the weekend, in which US President Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but expects talks to resume this week. ASX 200 traded higher with gains led by strength in the top-weighted financial sector, but with the upside capped heading into a widely anticipated rate hike by the RBA tomorrow. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading an initial rally amid higher yields and as participants also digested firmer-than-expected Services PPI data, while former BoJ official Momma touted the possibility of the central bank hiking rates again in October. KOSPI suffered on return from a 4-day closure with notable selling in the local tech behemoths. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark edged higher, while the mainland was heavily pressured at the start of a holiday-shortened trading week following a slowdown in Industrial Profits, while the PBoC's liquidity efforts and a US-China agreement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff reduction framework failed to spur risk appetite.

Top Asian News

• Australian Treasurer Chalmers confirmed Australia's 2025-2026 budget deficit was AUD 6bln less than forecast.
• Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Aug) 4.2% (prev. 11.2%).
• Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Aug YY) 15.7% (Prev. 17.6%).
• Japanese Services PPI YY (Aug) 3.7% vs Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) were broadly firmer this morning, but have come off best levels as energy benchmarks continue to rise and as yields remain elevated. European sectors hold a positive bias. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, joined closely by Retail and Consumer Products. The downside resides Basic Resources, with the sector dented by continued pressure in the metals space amidst elevated yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Also towards the bottom is Tech, following the negative bias set out by SK Hynix (-5%) and Samsung (-5.4%) overnight. For the former, it was recently confirmed that SK Hynix’s unit Solidigm is aiming for a US IPO, which would see SK Hynix essentially sharing Solidigm's future earnings.

Top European News

• UK PM Burnham hinted regarding new taxes to pay for social care reform and confirmed he wants care for the elderly and infirm to operate on NHS principles, while he didn’t deny that this would be paid for with tax increases.
• UK PM Burnham insisted he can deliver a real change for people in the country despite the nation facing severe economic headwinds, while he acknowledged they are facing a challenging set of circumstances at the budget. It was also reported that Burnham announced a new help-to-buy scheme to get first-time buyers on the housing ladder.
• UK PM Burnham suggested he could block plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport.
• British police arrested several suspects over a ‘major incident’ near an airbase used by the US, while US President Trump said the men arrested at the UK airbase were looking to do ‘big damage’.
• France is mulling a change to the way payroll tax deductions are calculated in its 2027 budget bill, which would effectively be a payroll tax increase for firms and could bring in an additional EUR 3bln-3.5bln.
• Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia premier Wuest, who is a key figure in Chancellor Merz’s CDU, criticised the government regarding the pace of economic reforms and said delays in enacting legislation contributed to the party’s disastrous performance in regional elections this month.
• ECB’s Sleijpen said the Netherlands needs to keep government spending in check and that state debt will increase if they do nothing, while he warned it would be highly irresponsible to borrow more, which is also not good for inflation.
• Swedish Social Democrat leader Andersson said she will tell the parliament speaker she cannot form a government under the current circumstances.
• EU leaders are deadlocked over the next long term budget, Politico reported citing a German diplomatic cable; ahead of an October 15th meeting, a development that raises the prospect of there being no-deal by end-2026.

FX

• DXY is little changed overall, with the Buck caught between higher oil prices, yields and Fed tightening bets on one side, and notable JPY strength on the other (see below for more details). Friday’s hawkish Fed rhetoric remains on traders' minds, with Hammack saying policy needs to be restrictive to bring inflation lower and that she does not currently see policy as restraining the economy. DXY trades around the 101 mark in a current 100.98-101.20 range (vs 100.87-101.31 range on Friday). Note, month- and quarter-end flows are also coming into traders' views, with rebalancing likely to become more influential as month-end approaches.
• EUR/USD is modestly softer with little in the way of fresh bloc-specific drivers, leaving the pair largely at the whim of broader USD action but perhaps with some more influence from the GBP today. EUR/USD trades within a 1.1371-1.1391 range, with ECB's Lagarde due for a text release at 15:00 BST.
• GBP is modestly firmer against the USD despite some caution around the UK fiscal outlook. PM Burnham hinted at new taxes to fund social care reform and acknowledged challenging circumstances heading into the Budget, while also announcing a new help-to-buy scheme. The spending narrative is being treated cautiously, although the potential growth impulse is being taken at face value for now, with Chancellor Healey still to come at 12:00BST, speaking at the Labour conference. As such, the stable open for Gilts seemingly provided traders with some relief for now. Before that, on the BoE front, Ramsden is due for a text release on QT at 11:00BST. GBP/USD trades towards the top of a 1.3218-1.3273 range.
• JPY is the clear G10 outperformer, extending gains after Japan’s top FX official Mimura said authorities are not satisfied or reassured by recent Yen price action and are watching whether markets take their “clear message” at face value. Mimura also mentioned the BoJ’s shift towards rate hikes and the subsequent result of the narrowing of the US-Japan yield gap. USD/JPY fell from around 157.55 to 157.25 on the remarks, and continued to fall to a trough of 156.50.
• Japanese FX Official Mimura said they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value. Not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action. BoJ's clear shift onto a rate-hiking path is gradually narrowing the Japan-US yield gap. A clear message was sent to the US on rates.

Central Banks

• BoJ Minutes from July meeting stated members agreed financial conditions are accommodative and many members noted firms are steadily passing on rising raw material costs, keeping inflation elevated.
• BoE's Dhingra said that she is worried that high rates would hit investment and lower supply.
• PBoC to inject CNY 661bln via overnight reverse repos.
• PBoC injected CNY 139bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40% and CNY 300bln via 14-day reverse repos with rate at 1.25%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7399 vs Exp. 6.7085 (prev. 6.7489).
• BoK said to closely monitor financial and forex markets.

Fixed Income

• A bearish start to the day, though only modestly so despite energy upside of in excess of USD 2.00/bbl. USTs hit a 104-15+ low in the European morning.
• The main updates being the US President rejecting the Iranian proposal, but despite that he expects talks with Iran to recommence this week. From Iran, the delegation in the US reportedly has no plans to speak with the US on such matters, though Iranian President Pezeshkian has said they remain ready for dialogue.
• The action has lifted yields across the globe and the curve, with the US curve modestly flatter given the near-term implications for energy, inflation and by extension the Fed from the lack of concrete progress on Hormuz. The US 10yr yield remains at a c. 5.23% recent peak, with both the short- and long-end of the curve also at/near multi-year highs.
• Gilts opened with modest pressure given the above, though the UK focus point has been the weekend’s briefings from UK PM Burnham and, to a lesser extent, Chancellor Healey. The Chancellor added little, but we await more detail from his 12:00BST speech today. From Burnham, he outlined reform to the housing market, hinted at a tax increase to fund his social care ambitions and seemingly didn’t rule out an early election; though, on the latter, the inference is more from the tone of the Kuenssberg interview than anything he explicitly said.
• Net, the above has been taken in relative stride by the market, with the pressure seen in fitting with EGBs and no further bearish impulse coming from the PM’s comments.
• Bunds in-fitting, at a 119.22 low with downside of 10 ticks at most. Reacting to the upside seen in global energy benchmarks and further gains for TTF on the Middle East uncertainty. Action that continues to keep the ECB’s October meeting live, and increases the odds of a back-to-back hike after September’s move.
• Japan Finance Ministry proposes the cut to mid-term JGB liquidity auctions, given improved JGB market functions; proposes reducing 5-11 year liquidity enhancement bond supply.
• Australia sold AUD 800mln 3.75% April 2037 bonds b/c 4.88, avg. yield 5.429%.

Commodities

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are firmer after gapping higher at the open as US-Iran tensions somewhat picked up over the weekend (see below for details), with no notable de-escalation progress to report thus far following the UNGA. WTI Nov trades within a USD 92.68-95.75/bbl range, while Brent Dec trades within a USD 97.62-100.94/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer as renewed Middle East tensions add to European supply concerns, with the EU warning member states of a potential energy price crisis and urging them to continue filling storage while considering measures to curb demand. TTF trades towards the top end of a EUR 72.30-74.33/MWh range.
• Precious metals are sharply lower this morning as the renewed rise in oil prices adds to inflation concerns, pushing yields higher and reinforcing expectations for further Fed tightening. Spot gold has fallen through USD 4,200/oz and trades near the bottom of a USD 4,140-4,286/oz range. Spot silver underperforms to a greater extent, falling almost 5% at the time of writing to around USD 61.00/oz within a USD 60.95-64.26/oz range.
• Base metals are also softer amid the higher yield environment and broader selling across metals, while weaker Chinese data adds another headwind ahead of a holiday-shortened weekend for China.. Chinese Industrial Profits growth slowed to 4.2% Y/Y in August from 11.2%, with YTD growth easing to 15.7% from 17.6%. 3M LME copper resides at the bottom of a 14,376.58-14,612.00/t range.
• Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President this morning also supporting talks. Further, there was renewed Houthi activity against Saudi Arabia, with explosions reported in Riyadh and disruption at King Khalid International Airport. Traders are also mindful on US diesel policy after Trump said he is “thinking very seriously” about an export ban, despite earlier White House assurances that one would not be implemented.
• Qatar has reportedly extended its force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia and Europe by another month, Bloomberg reported.
• India Trade Minister Goyal said India is working with the UAE to expand strategic petroleum reserves.
• Libya’s NOC Chairman said the Sharara oil field is producing more than 300k BPD.
• Qatar to extend force majeure on LNG deliveries to Pakistan through November.

Trade/Tariffs

• China Commerce Ministry said we look forward to expanding China-US collaboration in the coal sector and that the sides agreed to form an agricultural working group, have also agreed to set up communication channel for AI incidents. China will review and approve applications from financial service institutions worldwide, including those with US capital, to operate and open branches. China expects US to offer fair, transparent, and stable policy environment for Chinese financial institutions. Both sides agree to keep talks on boosting China-US flights and related issues. Trade truce with US will remain in place through January 2027.
• White House said US and China confirmed agreement regarding a USD 30bln vs USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut. said:. Will consider certain US products for import into China and China is to import US coal in 2027-2028. China and US launch AI dialogue under the trade mechanism.
• US trade sources tell FBN there will be historic purchases announced in agreement with China. Both sides will also exempt more agriculture products, medical supplies, and lo-tech electronics from additional tariffs.

Geopolitics: Russia

• EU's Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said that intelligence reported indicate that Russia is planning further sabotage; called for focus on addressing gaps in Europe's defence capabilities. EU’s Naval Aspides Mission requires more naval assets to be operational, adding that the need is bigger than it has ever been.
• EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.
• US President Trump said he told Ukrainian President Zelensky to take it easy on refineries.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russian strikes overnight killed four in Ukraine and damaged a data centre in Kyiv.
• EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran's direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
• IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
• Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
• Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
• Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
• Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.
• What Western media outlets are promoting regarding the negotiations is false news, reported Al Mayadeen citing high-ranking Iranian security source. The reason for the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the Americans' failure to fulfill their commitments. Iran has informed the American side of its seven conditions, and the ball is now in the American court. The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened through tweets or misleading news published by media outlets close to the White House.
• Iran Foreign Minister said we have not closed the door to diplomacy despite American violations; choice now rests with US. If the conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz and maritime traffic can be reopened within 7 days. We will open the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day of implementing the plan. We will return to negotiations with America on the seventh day of implementing the plan. The 7-day deadline begins as soon as the United States accepts the plan we proposed. Tehran will not yield to pressure or relinquish its sovereign rights. Plan's requirements are similar to those in the MoU with the US.
• Iran Foreign Minister said we are committed to protecting freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and its security cannot be restored through military blockade and escalation. We conveyed a message to America via Qatar, consisting of a 7-day plan. Our position is clear regarding the ongoing developments, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
• IRGC Spokesperson said we will not stop punishing the US until Iran's seven conditions are met; our missiles are capable of destroying America's multi-layered defenses, Fars reported.
• Iranian Real Admiral Siyari said they are fully in control of the Strait of Hormuz, Defa reported; "we act assertively in the north of the Sea of Oman and east of the Strait of Hormuz and will not allow anyone to attempt passage".
• Eight US Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian cruise missile attacked the ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by NBC News.

Geopolitics: Other

• Yemeni sources say Armed Forces aircraft carried out several airstrikes on Houthi positions in Al-Rabeei, west of Taiz, Al Arabiya reported.
• Saudi artillery and missile attacks on the border county of Saada in Yemen, according to SNN.
• Saudi's Foreign Minister arrives in Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio.
• Iraqi sources report suspension of flights at Erbil Airport in Iraq following reported of attack on separatist party headquarters, according to SNN.
• US President Trump administration officials said US has no plans to sell weapons to China after US ambassador to Beijing, Perdue, told an interviewer that President Trump at one point offered to sell US arms to Chinese President Xi, according to WSJ.
• Explosions reportedly heard in Erbil, northern Iraq, according to SNN.
• Several commercial aircraft were not being allowed to land at King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia, following reported of explosions heard in Saudi Arabia.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu visited Abu Dhabi on Sunday and met with UAE's President, according to Axios.

US Event Calendar

• 10:30 am: United States Sep Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 7.75, prior 11.6

Central Bank speakers

• 8:15 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Bank Supervision and Regulation
• 1:25 pm: United States Fed’s Cook Speaks on AI and Emerging Tech
• 1:30 pm: United States Fed’s Barkin in Fireside Chat

Main Rating Changes:

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

even though US-Iran talks could resume this week, there was little sign of a breakthrough over the weekend and bond yields and oil have climbed again this morning. Iran reiterated on Sunday that it would not soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisting that Tehran would not back down from demands including sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and an end to US blockade measures. Meanwhile President Trump said he still expected negotiations to continue but rejected Iran's latest proposal as inadequate. So a stalemate but if you're looking for some positives it's that there does still seem to be a line of communication open.

10yr US yields are +3.8bps higher this morning with 2yr yields 4.6bps +higher.  Brent is up +2.58% to $107.01. The Nikkei is flat, while the Hang Seng (+0.64%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.36%) are higher but with S&P 500 (-0.36%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.67%) futures lower amid fresh technology-sector weakness after OpenAI indicated it was pausing development of certain advanced AI models after agents have been reported to have gone rogue across a number of recent incidents. Elsewhere South Korea and China have caught down to losses towards the end of last week as they were closed on Friday. The KOSPI (-2.44%) and CSI 300 (-2.15%) are sharply lower as a result, also weighed down by some tech weakness. European equity futures are up around a third of a percent.

It's very busy week ahead with US payrolls (Friday) and PCE (Wednesday) blockbuster releases. The US ISM (Thursday) will attract outsized attention given the spectacular beat on the S&P PMI last week that sent 10yr US yields +15.2bps higher on the day. A huge move for such a report. 

Global inflation will also be in focus outside of the US August PCE report with flash September CPI releases across Europe (Tuesday/Wednesday) and Tokyo CPI (Friday) all due. In Asia, investors will also be watching Chinese PMIs (Wednesday), the BoJ’s Tankan survey and summary of opinions (Thursday), as well as the RBA decision (tomorrow) where the market prices in a 93% probability of a hike. All that around month and quarter end on Wednesday.

In the US, attention will increasingly turn towards Friday’s September payrolls report. Following August’s stronger-than-expected gain of 162k, our economists expect payrolls to rise by around 45k in September (Friday), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% and average hourly earnings growth steady at +0.3% month-on-month. Recent labour market indicators have remained reasonably firm, although some moderation after August’s strength would be consistent with a labour market that is cooling only gradually.

Ahead of Friday’s payrolls release, labour market data will begin arriving tomorrow with the August JOLTS report, before the September ADP employment release on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Together, these releases should help shape last minute expectations going into the official employment report. Note that last week saw claims at 197k, a rare dip below 200k.

Moving onto inflation, our economists expect the August core PCE deflator (Wednesday) to rise by +0.27% month-on-month, slightly above July’s pace. The report will be accompanied by personal income and spending data, where our economists expect gains of +0.5% and +0.6% respectively. Particular attention will be paid to the PCE release given the BEA’s annual benchmark revisions and methodology changes, which could alter the recent inflation profile and affect comparisons with previous months.

Elsewhere in the US, our economists expect the Conference Board consumer confidence index (tomorrow) to improve to 91.0 from 89.4, while the ISM manufacturing index (Thursday) is expected to rise to 55.1 from 54.6. Remember the S&P composite PMI hit 58.4 last week. We get the ISM services print next week. Wednesday’s final Q2 GDP release will also attract attention as it incorporates benchmark revisions that may reshape perceptions of recent growth trends. As we end the quarter, note that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is currently tracking at 5.02% for Q3.

Outside the US, European inflation data will dominate the calendar. Preliminary September CPI releases begin with Spain tomorrow, followed by Germany, France and Italy on Wednesday, before the Eurozone aggregate reading on Friday. Our economists expect Eurozone headline HICP inflation to print at 3.75% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.53%. In Japan, today’s BoJ minutes from the July meeting will be followed by the Q3 Tankan survey and September meeting summary of opinions on Thursday, while our economists expect Friday’s Tokyo CPI report to show a further firming in underlying inflation. China’s September PMIs are due on Wednesday, while the RBA announces its latest policy decision tomorrow, where our economists expect a 25bp rate increase.

Recapping last week now and bond yields continued to rise as several hawkish headlines led to fresh pressure. One factor was ongoing Middle East concerns, though Brent crude (+0.43% on the week; -2.14% Friday to $104.32/bbl) pared back most of its weekly rise on Friday amid reporting that US and Iran officials had moved into detailed technical discussions during the New York talks. Enthusiasm has obviously been dented again over the weekend.

But on top of that, there were multiple strong data releases from around the world, which added to expectations for rate hikes in the months ahead. Among others, the US flash composite PMI for September hit a 5-year high of 58.4, whilst the Eurozone equivalent hit a 3-year high of 53.1. 

In the US, despite a partial pullback on Friday, the probability of a Fed hike in October climbed from 53% to 64% over the week. And in turn, the 10yr Treasury yield rose +16.6bps (+3.7bps Friday) to 5.16%, after hitting its highest level since 2007 on Thursday. There were even bigger milestones for the 30yr yield, which rose +16.5bps (+1.5bps Friday) to 5.49%. So that was its highest level since 2004, and also its biggest weekly jump since May. Elsewhere, the moves weren’t quite as big, but the 10yr bund yield still rose +8.3bps last week (+0.3bps Friday) to a post-2009 high of 3.60%.

Yet despite the rates selloff, the optimism on the growth side helped to sustain equities last week around the world. For instance, the S&P 500 was actually up +1.21% last week (+0.51% Friday), leaving the index within 1% of its record high. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX was up +0.50% (+0.35% Friday), and Japan’s Nikkei was up +2.07% (+1.30% Friday). That was supported by a rally among tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 group up +3.04% (-0.03% Friday). 

When it came to other assets, the surge in Treasury yields and the hawkish Fed repricing meant the US Dollar was the strongest-performing G10 currency. Indeed, the dollar index was up +0.81% last week (-0.25% Friday). Meanwhile, gold prices fell -2.14% (+0.23% Friday), as higher real and nominal yields put downward pressure on precious metals as a non-interest-bearing asset. 

Finally, credit saw a sizeable sell-off, with both US IG (+5bps) and HY spreads (+27bps), as well as EUR IG (+3bps) and HY (+13bps), widening. For US HY that marked the biggest weekly widening in almost a year. So credit markets showing some signs of coming under strain from the rise in yields even as equities remained resilient.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 08:33

Saudi Arabia Restarts Critical Hormuz Bypass Pipeline

Saudi Arabia has resumed oil exports through its critical East-West pipeline, restoring access to Red Sea loading facilities that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports. The restart coincides with Kpler data from late last week showing Hormuz oil flows have recovered to about two-thirds of prewar levels, suggesting a recovery in Gulf energy flows and an erosion of Tehran's leverage.

Overseas shipments have restarted, Bloomberg reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the operation. Saudi Aramco began testing the pipeline and rebuilding pressure last week, aiming to resume meaningful flows by the weekend.

In a separate report last Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Aramco was working quickly to repair the damaged section of the pipeline after a drone attack destroyed a pumping station.

A successful restart of the pipeline, which can carry 7 million barrels of crude per day to Yanbu on the Red Sea while bypassing the Hormuz chokepoint, would likely provide welcome relief for Europe, which had crude cargoes for this month canceled because of the disruptions. The Saudis have already indicated a near-term resumption of crude loadings for Asian buyers.

With the East-West pipeline set to ramp up and the Saudis beginning to export crude from the Red Sea once again, independent oil research firm Commodity Context cited Kpler data over the weekend showing that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, driven by a surge in Saudi exports.

On the diplomatic side, President Trump told reporters on the White House lawn over the weekend that he had rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and was open to resuming attacks on the Islamic Republic after the midterms.

Reporter: Will you strike Iran after the midterms?

Trump: I'm rejecting their deal. They want to make a deal where they open the Strait immediately because they're losing so badly.

They want to make a deal, and I think that's fine. I like making a deal, too, but that deal would… pic.twitter.com/87rKbDySLN

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 26, 2026

The key question is: What happens to Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island, after the midterms?

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 08:15

Jefferies Sets 9000 Target For Market: Everything Must Go Right

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In this week's Daily Market Commentary, we flagged the growing chorus calling for 9,000 on the S&P 500. The most detailed version comes from Jefferies, which now sees 9,000 by the end of 2027. With the index closing at 7,764.64 on Tuesday, that's another 15.9% from here. Jefferies isn't alone, either. FactSet's bottom-up analyst target sits even higher at 9,261. In a matter of weeks, the S&P 500 9,000 target went from a bold call to the "consensus" view. That's exactly why it deserves a closer look.

What Jefferies' S&P 500 9,000 Target Actually Assumes

Jefferies' price target of 9000 certainly is encouraging, until you strip away the headlines and focus on the math. Price equals earnings times whatever investors will pay for those earnings. Jefferies spells out its math plainly: $450 in 2027 earnings per share at 20x. That assumes 20.8% earnings growth next year, on top of a 2026 estimate of $373 that already sits above the Street. Its bear case is 6,900, and its bull case is 10,500.

However, this is where it gets interesting. Consensus 2027 earnings currently sit at $419.53, up 10% from roughly $381 in May. At Tuesday's close, the market trades at about 18.5 times that number. Getting to 9,000 requires either a 16% expansion in the multiple or another 7% of upward revisions on top of the ones we've already had. Neither is impossible. Both require the current trend in estimates to keep running, and that's the assumption worth testing.

The Drivers Are Real, And They're Breaking A 90-Year Trend

Let me be clear about this: the bulls have the data on their side right now. According to FactSet, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 31.8% this year and 15.2% in 2027, on revenue growth of 9.1%. Net margins hit 17.0% in the second quarter, the highest since FactSet began tracking in 2009. Jefferies estimates that AI-exposed companies account for about 46% of index earnings, with growth of 60% this year slowing to 24% next year. Goldman puts AI infrastructure at roughly half of all S&P 500 earnings growth across 2026 and 2027.

The more unusual part is the direction of the revisions. Wall Street almost always starts a year too optimistically and spends the next 24 months cutting. Goldman's chart of global earnings estimates clearly shows that. From 2016 through 2025, the final number landed below the first estimate in eight of ten years, and the other two were roughly flat. The 2026 and 2027 estimates are doing the opposite, running up roughly 17% and 27% from where they started. Such is the fuel behind every 9,000 targets on the Street. It's also the thing that has historically reversed with the least warning.

That push higher matters because of where earnings already sit. Two weeks ago, in This Time Is Different? Earnings And Price Break 90-Year Trends, we showed that corporate earnings had broken above a trend that had contained them for more than 90 years.

The S&P 500 also pushed above the upper limit of its long-term price channel, a level last reached in early 2000.

Our work on earnings mean reversion put forward estimates close to 50% above their long-term growth trend. Jefferies' $450 takes that gap to roughly 60%, and every upward revision widens a gap that has historically closed on the earnings side.

To wit, from that 90-year analysis:

"Whatever event causes the 'E' to revert towards its long-term mean, the 'P' will be repriced lower."

Here's What Could Undercut The Outlook

Someone will tell you the analysts have been right all year, so why fight them? That's a reasonable point. The issue is NOT whether earnings grow in 2027. They almost certainly will. The issue is whether they grow 15.2% while the market is already priced for it.

Let's start with the shape of next year's path. As of this writing, the consensus forecast has fourth-quarter earnings growing 26.5% and first-quarter 2027 earnings growing 18.2%. However, the second quarter drops to 1.5%. To hit the full-year 15.2%, the back half of 2027 has to average something close to 20% growth, at a point when the easy year-over-year comparisons are gone.

Secondly, margins are potentially problematic. FactSet already expects net margins to slip from 17.0% to 15.0% in the third quarter, against a five-year average of 12.4%. The 9,000 forecast needs margins to hold near a record, and records are where margins tend to mean-revert.

The third risk is how the AI buildout is being paid for. FactSet tracks hyperscaler capex near $800 billion this year, with free cash flow at or below zero for every major spender except Alphabet and Microsoft. Borrowing has risen from 9% of capex to 32%. As we discussed in AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings, those servers are being depreciated over 5 to 6 years.

However, what if their real useful life is closer to 3 or 4? In that case, a much larger depreciation charge lands squarely in 2027 earnings. Then there's the consumer. Brent crude traded near $98 on Tuesday, up from $72 before the war in Iran started, and year-over-year crude consumption has already turned negative. That series has closely tracked real personal consumption, suggesting higher energy costs are eating into broader demand.

The Fed Isn't Coming To The Rescue This Time

Over the last fifteen years, investors learned that the Fed would cut if earnings stumbled. That reflex is gone. The FOMC raised rates by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, and the vote was unanimous. Chair Kevin Warsh said the move "will deliver a timelier return to our target."

As we noted in Another Hike By Year End And No Cuts On The Horizon, the median dot now sits at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027. In other words, one more hike this year and no cuts until 2028. The Summary of Economic Projections has core PCE inflation at 3.4% this year.

Look at how the committee sees the risks. Not one of the 18 participants sees growth weighted to the downside. Seventeen see inflation risks weighted to the upside. Such is the setup Bob Farrell's Rule #9 warns about: "When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen." As we showed in the DMC, a coin flip has matched the committee's 12-month forecasting record since 2012. A committee this confident about growth and this worried about inflation isn't positioned to deliver "rate cuts" quickly if earnings disappoint.

Rates are the other half of the valuation equation. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.11% on Wednesday, the highest since 2007. The speed matters as much as the level. Goldman notes that stocks tend to struggle once the 10-year moves by about 30 basis points in two weeks or 50 basis points in a month. It's up 28 since September 9 and 37 since August 21. The Russell 2000, where rates bite first, fell 1.8% on Wednesday.

FactSet's forward P/E of 19.1 implies forward earnings near $400, an earnings yield of about 5.2%. Against a 5.11% 10-year, investors are being paid roughly 8 basis points to own stocks rather than Treasuries. At that premium, even 2027 consensus earnings need a 10-year near 4.6% to reach 9,000. The 6.2% cut in the table below is the average amount by which analysts have overshot final earnings, including recessions.

We can do some simple math and calculate implied S&P 500 returns based on various 2027 EPS levels and valuation multiples. As shown, math can become fairly brutal.

What Should Investors Do Now

None of this makes me bearish on the next few months. The trend is bullish, the index sits within a fraction of its record, and earnings momentum is positive. Fighting that tape has been a losing trade all year. What bothers me is how little room for error the S&P 500's 9,000 target leaves. It needs estimates to keep rising, margins to stay at records, AI spending to keep paying off, and rates to stop climbing, all at the same time. That's a lot of things that have to go right for another 15.9%, against a downside of 6% to 14% if only one or two of them go wrong.

This is why we continue to recommend staying invested while increasing the risk controls and discipline around the portfolio. The goal is to capture potential market appreciation if Jefferies' 9,000 target is achieved, without building a portfolio that depends on it. Practically, here's how that looks.

Markets rarely punish investors for missing the last 15% of a bull market. They punish investors who needed that 15% to be there.

As we wrote two weeks ago, position for the trend and prepare for the bend. Right now, the forecasts have stopped leaving room for anything to go wrong.

They usually do right before something does.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 08:05

Jefferies Flags "Power Indicator" Of Soft iPhone 18 Demand In China

Edison Lee, Jefferies' head of China and Hong Kong technology and software research, is out with a note Monday morning warning that Apple's latest iPhone launch shows signs of softer demand, with weak Hong Kong resale prices suggesting consumers are pushing back against price hikes on premium models.

"Weak 18P/PM resale prices vs. 17P/PM remain our clearest sign of softer demand, despite a weekend rebound in lead times that could reflect tighter supply as DUO ramps," he wrote at the beginning of the note.

Lee points out that weak demand is most pronounced for the new premium iPhone 18 models:

Weak YoY resale pricing remains a powerful indicator of weaker 18P/PM demand vs. 17P/ PM. Our tracking shows 18P/PM resale-price trends in HK remain weak. iPhone 18P resale prices now imply discounts across almost all variants (Table 2). For 18PM, resale premiums fell sharply on day one and have since remained low or declined further (Charts 7-10). The only 18PM variant still commanding a meaningful premium is the 256GB model, at ~8% above Apple's official selling price. The 1TB/2TB versions are particularly weak, potentially reflecting two factors: 1) the US$400/500 price hikes may be too steep relative to consumers' perceived incremental value; and 2) Apple switched from TLC to lower-cost QLC NAND for the 1TB/2TB 18P/PM models, potentially making storage performance less attractive. As of Sep 27, 18PM resale premiums were meaningfully below those of 17PM at the same point last year, except for the 256GB model (Charts 1-2). Overall, resale pricing remains our clearest indication so far that 18P/PM demand is tracking weaker YoY.

Lead times rebounded over the weekend, an encouraging signal, but the improvement could be supply rather than demand driven. According to our tracking, lead times for both 18P/PM fell across almost all markets early last week before generally rebounding toward the weekend (Tables 1-2). As of Sep 27, 18PM lead times were longer YoY in HK/China and the US, shorter in the UK/Germany, and flat in Japan (Chart 5). For 18P, lead times were longer YoY in HK/ China, shorter in the US/Germany, and flat in the UK/Japan (Chart 6). The weekend rebound is encouraging and contrasts with the weaker resale-price signal. However, we would be cautious about interpreting it purely as a demand improvement, as supply could also be tightening as Apple ramps DUO production ahead of Oct 23 deliveries, with pre-orders starting Oct 16. We therefore view lead times as a more mixed signal than resale pricing at this stage.

DUO is generating lots of excitement, but China-specific eSIM restrictions could limit broader adoption. Given DUO's slim form factor, it is eSIM-only, similar to the 17 Air, which has not been selling well. Although eSIM was officially approved by China's MIIT last October, registration must be completed in person at operators' retail outlets. More importantly, China's DUO supports only two eSIM numbers, versus up to eight on eSIM-capable iPhones in HK. This matters because many Chinese consumers maintain multiple mobile numbers, partly because nationwide mobile-number portability was introduced only in 2019 and partly to separate work and personal communications. The restriction could be particularly inconvenient for frequent travelers. A DUO user already using two Chinese numbers who wants to add a third-party travel eSIM may need to suspend one domestic number first, requiring an in-person operator visit. The user would then need another in-person visit to reactivate the suspended number after returning to China. 

We do not think this will necessarily deter high-end early adopters buying DUO as a status symbol, but the inconvenience could become a bigger obstacle to broader adoption, particularly if consumers expect Apple to introduce a second-generation, regular-sized foldable in 2027.

Bank of America analysts said last week that early iPhone sales data painted a mixed picture, with demand for the iPhone 18 Pro broadly in line with the comparable stage of the iPhone 17 launch cycle.

For John Ternus, new Apple CEO, this will be his first test of whether consumers will pay lofty premiums for incremental upgrades. Lee pointed to price hikes of $400 to $500 on the higher-end models as a potential deterrent. He also noted Apple's switch to cheaper QLC storage from TLC in the 1TB and 2TB Pro models could make storage performance less attractive. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 07:45

China Stocks Sink To One-Year Low As Proposed US Curbs Hammer Optical Suppliers

The CSI 300 Index, a leading benchmark tracking 300 of the largest stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell to a one-year low Monday. The index, roughly comparable to the S&P 500, came under pressure as co-packaged optics (CPO) shares sold off following a Reuters report of proposed US restrictions on Chinese optical transceivers used in sensitive government systems and data centers.

UBS's Lucy Zhang offered clients a first take on the Reuters report and the resulting selloff in Chinese stocks overnight:

China A-shares were under broad-based pressure Monday, led by a sharp selloff in the co-packaged optic (CPO) complex following press reports of fresh US policy restrictions.

Zhongji Innolight fell 9% and Eoptolink dropped 8%, weighing on the broader technology space, as investors reacted to proposed US restrictions targeting Chinese optical transceivers. 

The weakness came against an already fragile backdrop following the Trump-Xi summit, which delivered few concrete outcomes. Growth and technology heavy indices underperformed, with the ChiNext Index down 4.5% and the STAR 50 down 4.1%, as selling pressure spread across AI, optical networking, and broader TMT names. 

The combination of policy uncertainty, crowded positioning, and limited positive catalysts continues to weigh on market sentiment in the near term. A-share full-day turnover remained at RMB1.7 trn, broadly in line with the August-September average, indicating limited buy-on-dip flows ahead of the long holiday.

Meanwhile, The Information separately reported that Beijing may allow Alibaba and ByteDance to purchase Nvidia's RTX Pro 5500 chips, potentially intensifying competition for homegrown suppliers.

The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index closed 2.2% lower Monday, tumbling to levels last seen in August 2025. The decline leaves the index vulnerable to further downside toward 4,000, with limited technical support that could amplify the move.

Last week's Trump-Xi summit, as described by Barclays senior China economist Yingke Zhou, was "more signaling, less substance," adding, "The Trump-Xi summit was primarily about stabilizing relations rather than resolving disputes. Beyond a short trade-truce extension, progress was limited. The absence of Chinese CEOs suggests China viewed the summit as a strategic dialogue, not a deal-making exercise." 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 07:20

It's A 'McDisaster'

McDonald's shares are on pace for their worst annual decline in nearly a quarter-century after the burger chain disappointed Wall Street last week at its Investor Day, with CFO Ian Borden warning that its US business would be "slightly negative" in the third quarter.

On top of that, Wall Street analysts, including Deutsche Bank's Lauren Silberman, soured on last week's developments and said the turnaround inflection point for the quick-service Big Mac chain has been delayed.

Shares of the burger giant have fallen nearly 31% from their February high and are heading for their worst annual performance since 2002.

Demand woes are emerging as the US price of a Big Mac jumped 23% between 2019 and the end of 2025, according to the Economist's Big Mac Index. While those increases helped offset higher ingredient, labor, and fuel costs, the days of a cheap burger are long gone.

"Their prices have gone up substantially, and it's no longer viewed as the best value in food," said Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research, who has the only "Sell" rating on the stock among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

The Melius analyst noted, "I could go to Texas Roadhouse instead and have an actual sit-down experience with my family that's not that much more expensive."

What happened to MCD's quality control? 

Bloomberg pointed out that rival QSR chains are finding more traction with customers: Burger King posted US comparable sales growth of 8.5% in its latest quarter, supported by a revamped Whopper and a Star Wars promotion. Taco Bell's same-store sales rose 7% as its $5, $7 and $9 meal boxes attracted customers.

McDonald's answer to sagging demand has been an $8.5 billion multiyear overhaul involving technology, restaurant upgrades, food quality and service improvements, and an effort to revive its PlayPlaces, but the turnaround plan failed to ignite optimism on Wall Street.

Silberman's key quotes from her initial takeaways from Investor Day:

• US sales remain weak: "US SSS were slightly negative in July and August, and while September should be positive, 3Q SSS are expected to be slightly negative given the slow start to the quarter."
• Fourth quarter caution: "We suspect 4Q US SSS will likely remain sluggish, in part due to a tough comparison."
• Forecast cuts: "We are lowering our 3Q/4Q US SSS to -0.5%/-1% (from flat)."
• The capex bill: "We estimate the total system investment for NEXT will cost ~$19BN, implying MCD will contribute ~45%."
• AI and productivity upside: "We walk away with increased conviction in the company's ability to improve unit economics by unlocking productivity through the implementation of its ArchIQ technology platform."

Read Deutsche Bank's report here. McDonald's play fits into a broader theme UBS equity trader Mark Paski recently warned about: Wall Street has turned its back on consumer stocks. An expensive turnaround is a tougher sell when working-poor customers can no longer afford pricey Big Macs. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 06:55

Boat Migrants Who Have Entered Britain Now Outnumber Its Soldiers

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Britain now has more illegal Channel arrivals under the Labour government, which has been in power two years, than it has soldiers in the British Army.

Home Office figures put small-boat arrivals since Labour took office on 4 July 2024 at 83,279. The regular Army stands at 83,000.

On Wednesday alone, 781 people came ashore - the worst single day since Andy Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister in July. The first three days of the week delivered 1,085 arrivals. Across 809 days of Labour government, that works out at roughly 103 people a day.

'It has been a very bad week for Shabana Mahmood...'

GB News Political Editor @ChristopherHope discusses the latest illegal migration milestone after it was revealed that the number of small boat migrants now exceeds the size of the British Army. pic.twitter.com/crGvJwxl5L

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 25, 2026

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the milestone speaks for itself. "Labour has let an entire army-sized population cross the Channel illegally," he said. "More people have arrived in small boats than we have soldiers defending Britain. That is completely bonkers. Labour has lost control of our borders and seems utterly incapable of getting it back."

Former Royal Navy officer Chris Parry went further. Labour's intake, he said, amounts to six-and-a-half divisions of fighting-age men. "That's more divisions than were in the Allied assault wave on D-Day," he added, calling the crossings "amphibious operations against our coast."

The comparison is worse when the rest of the services are brought in. Labour's small-boat total already sits 15,429 ahead of the Royal Navy and RAF combined, which together field 67,850 full-time personnel. And this is only the post-election slice. Under the Conservatives, around 128,000 people arrived by dinghy. Since records began in December 2018 the running total has blown past 200,000 - higher than the combined strength of the Army, Navy and RAF.

Writing in the Mail after more than 1,200 people crossed from Monday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: "It is utterly insane. And if it wasn't clear before, the events of the past few days have proved beyond any reasonable doubt that both Border Force and the Home Office have completely lost control."

He added: "Years ago, I warned the small boats crisis would define this era of British politics. Predictably, the chin-stroking commentariat declared I was exaggerating. Well, look where we are now."

"Ordinary Britons rightly ask if successive governments cannot stop people from arriving illegally in broad daylight, let alone under cover of darkness without detection, then what exactly is the point of having a border?" Farage asked. His party wants the largest military operation in the Channel since the Second World War and a return of every illegal arrival to France.

'It is not right!'

Senior Researcher at the Prosperity Institute, Guy Dampier, reacts as the number of small boat migrants now outnumber the British Army.

? Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 pic.twitter.com/e1vy4dBcUW

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 25, 2026

Two boats this week reached British beaches without Border Force interception - one at Samphire Hoe between Dover and Folkestone, another near Folkestone the day before. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood ordered an "urgent review" and said even one uncontrolled landing is "one too many." Education Secretary Lucy Powell then told GB News that "you can't stop everything all of the time," while insisting Mahmood was taking "swift action to find out what's gone wrong here and make sure it doesn't happen again."

Border Force union official Lucy Moreton was less diplomatic. Undetected landings are "absolutely, definitely happening," she said, with abandoned vessels and reports "all the way down to Falmouth." "If we don't look for it, we don't know it's happening. We don't know it's happening, we don't have to deal with it."

'We've got a government that is oblivious to the scale of the problem we face in the Channel.'

Shadow Secretary for Energy Security and Net Zero Andrew Bowie MP reacts as the number of small boat migrants who have reached the UK under Labour exceeds the size of the British Army. pic.twitter.com/PvXnKE2Q3U

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 25, 2026

Labour's first act in 2024 was to scrap the Rwanda deterrent. Shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie said the latest numbers follow from that choice. "We've got a government that is oblivious to the scale of the problem we face in the Channel," he said. "It's not a surprise, frankly, because the very first thing this Labour government did was get rid of any sort of deterrent to prevent illegal migrants coming into this country."

Former Home Office borders director Glyn Williams told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that "the consequences of a failing policy... are becoming more and more extreme," and that "more extreme measures" may now have to be considered.

"The consequences of a failing policy...are becoming more and more extreme."

Small boats containing 781 migrants arrived in the UK yesterday, the highest number in one day this year.

Former Director General for Borders & Immigration at the Home Office, Glyn Williams, says 'more... pic.twitter.com/c01qWFrncc

— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) September 25, 2026

The official line is that crossings are down 42 percent this year and that summer 2026 was the quietest since 2020. That is the defence ministers reach for while dinghies still beach in Kent and Britain discusses paying France another billion pounds for the next small-boats deal. GB News presenter Patrick Christys called the week "full-on illegal migrant carnage."

'Full-on illegal migrant carnage.'

GB News Presenter @PatrickChristys reacts to at least 1,000 illegal migrants having crossed the Channel since Monday, as it's revealed Britain might have to pay France another £1bn for the next small boat deal. pic.twitter.com/TtDoUa3kOj

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 23, 2026

The people coming off those boats do not vanish. They are processed, housed and parked on the public. We have already covered what that looks like on the ground. In Piddington, Oxfordshire - 350 residents, 46 children, no shop, no pub - a Home Office paper for the old MoD depot discussed 3,510 "service users" against an official planning figure of 1,256 single adult males. Ten migrants for every local.

Similar dumps are lined up at Linton-on-Ouse, Barnham and Crowborough as hotels are emptied into former barracks.

The legal machine that then keeps them here is not a refugee system. It is a production line. A Home Office official who has handled thousands of cases put the genuine share at "at best 1 per cent." Package stories, recycled police letters, staged nightclub photos, modern-slavery claims that cannot be disproved. Grant rates still run in the tens of thousands. Removals do not.

Who helps keep the Channel route open is another story again. NGO networks on the French coast have spent years treating the crossing as a humanitarian project rather than a breach of an island nation's border.

Migration Watch chairman Alp Mehmet urged "Military-age men are pouring into Britain across the Channel. Illegal Channel crossings are now a major political crisis, and pose a real and present threat to our national security."

Almost 90 percent of those intercepted since 2018 have been male; two-thirds are aged 18 to 39. People-smuggling gangs have told reporters that Iran has used the route to move operatives in return for a "favour" once on British soil. In 2023, nineteen suspected terrorists linked to Islamic State and al-Shabaab were reported to have arrived the same way.

A country that cannot stop a dinghy in daylight does not have a border policy. It has a ferry service run by criminal gangs, underwritten by hotels, lawyers and a claims system that treats refusal as the hard option.

Labour inherited a failure and then dismantled the one deterrent it had. Burnham now inherits the same beaches, the same numbers, and an actual Army smaller than the cohort that has already washed up on his party's watch.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 06:30

Italian Energy Giant Eni Caps Fuel Prices As Refining Crunch Drives Costs Higher

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Italian energy major Eni will cap fuel prices at its Enilive service stations beginning September 28 as tighter refined-product supplies and reduced European refining capacity continue to put upward pressure on pump prices.

The company said diesel sold through Enilive will be capped at €2.19 per liter, while petrol will be limited to €1.99 per liter. Eni said the caps are roughly €0.17 per liter below current average price levels.

The measure will initially remain in place for 30 days and could be extended through the end of 2026 depending on fuel-market conditions and supply trends.

Eni said the initiative is linked to excise-tax relief currently in force in Italy and is intended to reduce the impact of elevated fuel prices on households and businesses.

European fuel markets have faced renewed pressure from geopolitical disruptions, constrained refined-product availability and a long-term decline in regional refining capacity. Eni said nearly 30 European refineries have closed over the past 15 years, leaving the market more exposed when supplies tighten or imports are disrupted.

The Italian major said it has already been absorbing part of the increase in international fuel prices since March rather than fully passing higher wholesale costs through to recommended pump prices.

The latest intervention comes as European countries continue to grapple with the consequences of shrinking conventional refining capacity while attempting to transition toward lower-carbon fuels.

Eni is maintaining refining-related investments in Italy through its Enilive business, including its biorefineries in Venice and Gela. The company is also transforming its Livorno industrial site and other domestic facilities as part of a strategy focused increasingly on biofuels and lower-carbon products.

Those projects allow Eni to retain domestic processing capacity while shifting part of its downstream portfolio away from traditional petroleum refining.

[ZH: Last week saw US diesel prices decouple (lower) from EU prices amid chatter of a US export ban...]

The price cap also illustrates the increasing pressure on European refiners and fuel retailers to balance volatile international product prices with government efforts to limit the impact of energy costs on consumers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 02:00

Never Trust Uncle Sam On Drugs

Authored by James Bovard via JimBovard.com,

As the Covid-19 pandemic struck this nation, many Americans were stunned to see top federal health officials brazenly lie to buttress their own power. Bureaucrats and politicians unleashed themselves by shrouding how the feds bankrolled the creation of the pathogen, sanctifying a pseudo-miracle cure vaccine that was concocted almost overnight, and denying the vast collateral damage from effectively placing hundreds of millions of citizens under house arrest.

But there were precedents for all those crimes and follies in the federal war on drugs that began more than a century ago. That crusade established the right of federal officials to define reality and to scourge anyone who tried to reveal that federal Drug Czars were dangerous hucksters.

Federal contortions on marijuana are Exhibit A for why Americans should never trust Uncle Sam on drugs. For more than 50 years, the federal government shamelessly pretended that marijuana had no recognized medical use.

Last December 18, President Trump signed an executive order entitled, "Increasing Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research." Trump ordered the Attorney General and the Drug Enforcement Administration to speed up rule-making to finally enable far more medical research on the benefits of marijuana. On April 23, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced that henceforth all "FDA-approved marijuana-derived products" and "State-licensed medical marijuana products" are shifted from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3, a far less restrictive federal regulatory regime.

But the long history of federal persecution of marijuana users, researchers, and growers vivified the folly of trusting federal intervention to protect Americans' health.

Historical Context

During the 1920s, the US Department of Agriculture encouraged farmers to grow cannabis to boost their sagging incomes (hemp was used for such things as paper and rope). Marijuana also grew in popularity during the 1920s as a result of Prohibition, which inflated the price of alcohol by curtailing its availability.

During the Great Depression, Mexican immigrants surged into the United States searching for work and brought marijuana with them. Hostility toward the immigrants led to the Marihuana Tax Act of 1937, which effectively criminalized the possession of marijuana and, according to Yale professor David Musto, "mostly put a lot of jazz bands in jail."

Harvard Professor of Psychiatry Lester Grinspoon notes, "Between 1839 and 1900, more than a hundred articles on the therapeutic uses of marijuana appeared in scientific journals. As late as 1937, extract of cannabis was still a legitimate medicine marketed by drug companies." The American Medical Association testified at hearings that year urging that marijuana not be effectively banned. Unfortunately, Congress - bowing to the exhortations of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics - proclaimed in 1937 that marijuana had no medical value. Congress effectively prohibited any use of marijuana for ailing Americans. But simply because a majority of Congressmen say something doesn't make it true.

Federal Judges Need Not Apply

In 1972, the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML) petitioned the federal Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs to reclassify marijuana and recognize its medical uses. The director of the agency refused to consider the petition. NORML took the case to a federal appeals court, which issued a ruling that admonished the agency for rejecting the petition without "a reflective consideration and analysis."

In 1975, NORML sued the Drug Enforcement Administration (the successor agency to the Bureau) to force the agency to evaluate the evidence on whether Americans should have access to marijuana strictly for medicinal purposes. The DEA held a hearing, and a DEA administrative law judge found some merit in some of NORML's positions. But the chief of the DEA overturned those aspects of the judge's decision.

In 1977, a federal court of appeals criticized the DEA's final order and ordered the agency to reconsider the evidence for the medical benefits of marijuana.

In 1982, NORML petitioned the federal appeals court to force the DEA to follow the court's previous orders. That same year, the National Academy of Science's Institute of Medicine concluded: "Cannabis and its derivatives have shown promise in the treatment of a variety of disorders, [including] glaucoma, asthma, ... and in the nausea and vomiting of cancer chemotherapy."

In 1986, a DEA administrative law judge launched an extensive evaluation of the evidence for marijuana. DEA judge Francis Young spent two years conducting hearings and listening to scores of expert witnesses. Young ruled in 1988: "The marijuana plant is anything but a new drug....Uncontroverted evidence in this record indicates that marijuana was being used therapeutically by mankind 2,000 years before the birth of Christ. The evidence in this record clearly shows that marijuana has been accepted as capable of relieving the distress of great numbers of very ill people and doing so with safety under medical supervision. It would be unreasonable, arbitrary and capricious for a DEA to continue to stand between those sufferers and the benefits of this substance in the light of the evidence of this record."

How did the DEA respond to the evidence? DEA administrator John Lawn denounced the judge's finding as a "cruel and dangerous hoax" and refused to accept the judge's ruling. Lawn announced that the agency would only allow medical use of marijuana if it had already "currently accepted medical use." And since the DEA forbade any doctors from prescribing marijuana for medical use, that somehow meant that the agency must continue to ban its use in the future.

NORML sued again, appealing to a federal court to force the DEA to accept the recommendations of its own administrative law judge, and the court again compelled the DEA to reexamine the issue.

In March 1992, the DEA "reconsidered" and announced that it was right all along and that it would continue to ban any medical use of marijuana. DEA chief Robert Bonner decreed: "Lay testimonials, impressions of physicians, isolated case studies, random clinical experience, reports so lacking in details they cannot be scientifically evaluated and all other forms of anecdotal proof are entirely irrelevant."

Bonner got warmed up and showed some of the fervor that is the pride of DEA: "Beyond doubt, the claims that marijuana is medicine are false, dangerous and cruel. Sick men, women and children can be fooled by these claims and experiment with the drug. Instead of being helped, they risk serious side effects." Bonner acknowledged that he based his findings on the same testimony and documents that led DEA Administrative Law Judge Young to an opposite conclusion four years earlier. (Bonner denounced me for writing a Washington Times article exposing the DEA's chemical warfare on hapless Guatemalan farmers.)

As Harvard psychiatry professors Lester Grinspoon and James Bakalar noted at that time, "The Government's real concern is not that marijuana is ineffective as a medicine, but that it is too effective. The Government cannot acknowledge any of this because it has vastly exaggerated the dangers of marijuana for more than 50 years and is still committed to its war against the drug."

Pseudo-Science Trumps Democracy

Clinton's drug czar General Barry McCaffrey effectively claimed to be a wiser scientist than all the experts who researched marijuana's effects. On August 15, 1996, while campaigning in California against Proposition 215, which would have legalized the medical use of marijuana, McCaffrey declared: "There is not a shred of scientific evidence that shows that smoked marijuana is useful or needed. This is not science. This is not medicine. This is a cruel hoax." On December 30, 1996, when asked by a CNN reporter "is there any evidence...that marijuana is useful in a medical situation?" McCaffrey responded: "No, none at all. There are hundreds of studies that indicate that it isn't." McCaffrey ridiculed claims of marijuana's benefit as "Cheech 'n' Chong medicine."

After voters passed the proposition, the drug czar's office put out a press release warning: "The passage of [Proposition 215] creates a significant threat to the drug control system that protects our children....The decision to bring appropriate criminal or administrative enforcement action will be, as always, decided on a case-by-case basis." McCaffrey's warning sparked a vision of a DEA agent lurking underneath the desk of every doctor.

Federal judge Fern Smith issued a preliminary injunction on April 30, 1997, prohibiting the feds from punishing doctors: "The government's fear that frank dialogue between physicians and patients about medical marijuana might foster drug use...does not justify infringing the First Amendment...[T]his case is about the ability of doctors, on an individualized basis, to give advice and recommendations to bona fide patients suffering from serious, debilitating illnesses regarding the possible benefits of personal, medical use of small quantities of marijuana."

Clinton administration officials sneered at marijuana referendum results. Attorney General Janet Reno declared: "I don't think that the determination as to whether there is a medical, a scientific medical use of marijuana, should be made at the ballot box. I think it should be made in an informed way after appropriate scientific evaluation." And if government officials chose to ignore all the scientific evidence, then that was merely political science.

The Specter of Emaciated Chemo Patients

The federal government in 1978 began a program providing marijuana directly to a small number of people with illnesses that undeniably benefited from consuming marijuana, such as glaucoma and epilepsy. But the George H.W. Bush administration closed the program to any new entrants in 1992 after only eight people were certified - even though hundreds of thousands of people suffered from the same illnesses. The Clinton administration refused to reopen the program to new sufferers.

The Justice Department, in a 1999 brief, declared: "It became clear that the potential widespread use of marijuana for 'medical' purposes under the program...was bad public policy." According to the Justice Department, the first requisite of good public policy is to pretend that individual citizens do not exist.

In 1997, the CBS situation comedy Murphy Brown featured star Candice Bergen suffering from the aftereffects of chemotherapy. A friend provided her with some marijuana. DEA chief Thomas Constantine denounced CBS for "doing a great disservice" by "trivializing drug abuse" and "pandering to the libertarian supporters of an 'open society' and to the myths of legalization."

Constantine barked: "I am extremely troubled that at a time when teenage drug abuse is doubling...a television show of the caliber of Murphy Brown would portray marijuana as medicine. It is not medicine." Constantine promised to investigate "if any laws were broken" by broadcasting that show.

Clinton's drug policy was haunted by the specter of emaciated chemotherapy patients desperately needing something to stop their vomiting and fire their appetites. And nothing works better for this than smoking marijuana. The feds approved pills with THC, the active ingredient in marijuana; however, pills are scant help to someone heaving their guts.

Bluster from Washington political hacks failed to stop the cascade of new scientific evidence on the medicinal benefits of marijuana:

• A 1997 study performed on animals at the University of California at San Francisco found that cannabinoids (the active ingredient in marijuana) can be an effective reliever of pain without the adverse side effects of opiates.
• The American Journal of Psychiatry reported in 1999 that German researchers successfully used the major psychoactive ingredient in marijuana to treat Tourette's Syndrome (a complex neuropsychiatric disorder characterized by sudden spasms).
• The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported in 1998 that marijuana may protect brain cells during a stroke.
• British researchers revealed in 2000 that a marijuana compound was very effective in helping control the muscle spasms that afflict people with multiple sclerosis.

Clinton administration officials suppressed research results of United Nations affiliates that embarrassed the US drug war. The World Health Organization (WHO) completed a major study of marijuana's effects in 1997. The draft of the final report included a comparison of the adverse effects of cannabis with alcohol and tobacco. However, the WHO, bowing to pressure from the US government and other drug warriors, suppressed that chapter.

New Scientist, a British magazine, acquired a copy of the study and reported that in five out of seven categories of long-term health damage, alcohol was judged more harmful than marijuana. The report also observed that "in developed societies, cannabis appears to play little role in injuries caused by violence, as does alcohol."

Obama's Great Betrayal

In 2008, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama appeared to pledge an end to the persecution of medical marijuana users and providers: "What I'm not going to be doing is using Justice Department resources to try to circumvent state laws on this issue." Regardless, the Obama administration brought almost twice as many prosecutions against medical marijuana providers and users as did the George W. Bush administration.

Rob Kampia, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, complained in 2012 that "Obama has become more hostile to medical marijuana patients than any president in US history." A 2012 Time Magazine analysis noted that the DEA "has made it clear that medical marijuana is not medicine, and even called it a 'mortal danger.'"

Obama's repression of medical marijuana coincided with an explosion in abuse of prescription painkillers. A 2016 federal report estimated that 38 percent of adults had used prescription painkillers in the previous year, resulting in 19,000 deaths (more than the national homicide total). Medical marijuana is a proven painkiller, but the Obama administration (supported by pharmaceutical companies' campaign contributions and lobbying) scorned it. The National Institute on Drug Abuse torpedoed a 2011 research project testing whether "marijuana helps combat veterans with their post-traumatic stress disorder."

Generations of politicians and bureaucrats scorned the scientific evidence on marijuana to score "tough on crime" points. Anyone with an illness or malady that marijuana could help became merely collateral damage in the war on drugs. More than ten million Americans were arrested for marijuana to help prop up Washington's campaign to demonize weed and anyone who touched it.

Marijuana policy vivifies how federal policymakers were perpetually more interested in controlling and punishing Americans than in permitting citizens to find relief for all that ailed them. "When you mix politics and science, you get politics," observed John Barry in The Great Influenza, his history of the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. Unfortunately, hard facts can rarely compete with massive national campaigns to demonize anyone who refuses to submit to the latest commands.

An earlier version of this piece was published by the Future of Freedom Foundation.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 23:30