The post Trump Hits a Home Run for the Green Transition appeared first on CEPR.

Gold Vs An Erupting Financial Volcano

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Below, we look soberly at the historical case of gold in the backdrop of current headlines and a global financial system nearing an eruption moment. 

Although the catalysts of oil, war, bond dysfunction, and bloated stocks may seem modern and unique, the current case for gold is as timeless and constant as nature itself.

Volcanic Parallels…

In May of 1980, David Alexander Johnston, a volcanologist for the United States Geological Survey, was manning an observation post 10 kilometers from the percolating volcano of Mount St. Helens in the state of Washington. 

On May 18th, he would be the first to report the volcano’s sudden eruption. 

Within in minutes, however, Johnston would be killed by the volcano’s “lateral blasts.” his body was never recovered, and 56 others would also perish—along with 7,000 big game animals, 12 million fish, 200 homes, 300 kilometers of highway and 15 kilometers of railway.

Although monitoring volcanos may seem entirely removed from monitoring economic shocks, there are volcanic rumblings beneath our global oil, credit, equity and currency markets which are about to erupt. 

Like Johnston, few realize just how quickly observation can suddenly turn to extreme danger.

In fact, the current “calm before the financial eruption” feels almost surreal when one compares the hard facts of the global oil, bond and Main Street indicators against a topping stock market and a completely indecipherable “conflict narrative” coming out of DC.

To make this “eruption announcement” economically clear and soberly real as opposed to just sensational, all we need is a moment of silence to consider simple math, the rhyming cadence of history and a modicum of realism (and common sense).

Let’s start with oil.

Oil’s Warning Meters

History reminds us that the last great “oil shocks” of 1973 and 1990 had massive ripple effects on U.S. markets and Main Street economies.

What is coming, however, will be far worse.

During the oil embargo period of 1973, for example, the world experienced a 7% deficit of oil supply. This resulted in a 300% oil price surge, a 52% fall in U.S. stocks (over 2 years) and a peak inflation level of over 12%.

Seventeen years later, during the Gulf War, the world saw a similar global oil deficit (7%), a 75% spike in oil prices and a 21% fall in U.S. stocks.

Fast forward to today, however, and we see an almost surreal moment of total disregard for such warnings as well as blindness to the financial volcano growling on the horizon.

Since the last oil tanker squeezed past the Strait of Hormuz in late February, global oil usage of 100 million barrels per day has fallen by 13%, as 13 million barrels per day have been delayed by the fog of war.

This marks a global oil deficit in 2026 of nearly twice the levels seen in 1973 and 1990, yet the U.S. stock market (always the last to get the memo) is trading at nearly all-time highs as of this writing.

This Is Crazy…

Globally, oil reserves are running out, including within the U.S., whose Strategic Petroleum Reserves are at half their 400M barrel level. 

The situation is far worse in Asia, India and Africa, whose last oil deliveries from the Hormuz Strait ended days ago. 

This explains why hotels are closed in Mumbai, and fishing trawlers are out of gas off the coast of Thailand.

As for Australia, the EU and the UK, their last deliveries out of Hormuz came on April 10th. 

Now their leaders are nervously trying to limit demand while hoping for a true and lasting cease-fire for an Iranian conflict driven by a Truth-Social account rather than professional diplomacy or even a rudimentary understanding of global finance.

Even if this conflict ended right now, the delayed economic effects from these record-breaking energy deficits are and will be extraordinary. 

This is not a fable but a fact.

Oil, which fuels the world, also transports the goods which feed and move the world. 

When oil prices rise, the cost of everything rises, including the food transported on ships running on oil, and which food is grown from fertilizers made from oil. 

Within the next few weeks, we could be looking at a humanitarian food crisis in the developing economies.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index is near the bottom as the S&P nears its peak—marking a total (and tragi-comical) disconnect from Main Street indicators and Wall Street mania, the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

Also never seen before in history is the surreal disconnect between the paper (Brent futures) price for oil and the actual sales (“dated Brent”) price for the commodity in real time – a gap of over $35 dollars.

This delta between real oil pricing and paper oil pricing represents a pathetic attempt by policy makers to psychologically suppress panic via the help of well – pure dishonesty.

But then again, dishonesty as a matter of policy is nothing new to broken financial regimes, a fact proven by inflation misreporting, recession denial or the latest frauds legalized on the COMEX.

(By the way, those governmental proxies front-running the fake futures oil price gambit are looking down the barrel of one heck of a short-squeeze unless this war – and spiking oil price – is not immediately resolved…)

In sum, what we are experiencing as of now is the worst oil supply deficit in history, about to humiliate a U.S. stock bubble at all-time highs, which is totally disconnected from Main Street at the same time a fertilizer/food crisis is about to erupt in the world’s most vulnerable economies.

And Then There’s the Bond Market…

But even such appalling conditions pale in comparison to what our global bond markets are telling us.

As I’ve repeated for years: “The bond market is the thing.” 

Boring? Perhaps. But bonds are absolutely critical. As sovereign bond demand tanks and hence bond yields rise, the cost of debt/borrowing rises. 

This is fatal to economies that now operate almost entirely on debt.

And there is no better measure of debt costs than the yield on 10-Year sovereign bonds, almost all of which are rising like shark fins around drowning (and debt-soaked) nations like the UK, Germany, the U.S. and Japan.

But what is even more remarkable in the global bond market is what we are seeing out of China, whose yields are falling, not rising. 

This means Chinese bonds have more demand than U.S. Treasuries, British Gilts, Japanese JGB’s and German Bunds, which also means the days of Western bond hegemony in general, and U.S. Treasury hegemony in particular, are witnessing an historical turning point, one which we have been forewarning for years. 

In the case of the U.S., the yield on the U.S. 10Y is creeping dangerously close toward its “Uh-Oh” recession-inducing red line of 4.6% to 4.8%.

At $40T in U.S. public debt, Uncle Sam simply cannot survive such rising yields. 

Regardless of who sits at the Federal Reserve Bank (which is neither “federal,” nor a “reserve” nor even a “bank”), trillions will need to be printed to buy America’s otherwise unloved, unwanted and weaponized IOUs.

Bessent may try a “soft default” of UST’s by illegally (yet in the name of “national security”) fixing yields lower and extending bond durations further out. 

But even such desperate measures will not stop the inevitable “mouse-clicking” of trillions in M0 Fed Balance Sheet dollars and M2 money supply expansion to save our bond markets at the expense of our currency.

In short, Uncle Sam will have no choice but to create bad money out of thin air to pay his own criminally negligent bar tab.

Even if peace were somehow declared today in the Middle East, the debt and currency damage was already fatally ill long before the conflict in Iran acted to accelerate the dying process.

Which brings us, of course, to real money vs. fake money…

All Roads Lead to Gold

The now undeniable destruction of the dollar’s absolute purchasing power and the desperate yet failed measures to somehow reclaim dollar hegemony are beyond debate. 

The USA and its dollar will not end, but their hegemony is already (and will continue) declining. Regardless of whatever happens next in Iran or elsewhere, the die for U.S. debt, and hence the USD, was cast long ago.

Yes, there is so much change everywhere and every day, especially now. We all see this. 

But such blunt-speak is not anti-American. It is financial realism and simple pattern recognition, for despite all speculations, squawking pundits, changing headlines, tweets, and armchair military guessing, nothing has really changed at all…

History reminds us again and again that broken nations over their skis in failed and extended wars, extreme deficit spending and political mismanagement have always debased their currencies to temporarily save their political optics and near-term legacies.

This has always meant “temporary prosperity followed by permanent ruin” created by a handful of “political and economic opportunists,” who, as Hemingway warned, take their nations toward currency destruction and war – the very scenario in which we now openly find ourselves.

As the world reserve currency slowly loses its trust, faith, credibility and purchasing power in such a classic yet historically familiar backdrop, gold, as it has done for thousands of years, will continue to honestly rise in a setting of now almost comical dishonesty.

Like David Johnston, many of us have been watching the financial debt volcano rumble in the distance. 

As of 2026, that volcano is now erupting. It is now up to each of us to avoid being swept away by its “lateral blasts” of paper currency destruction.

In other words, it’s up to each of us to own honest and real money to protect ourselves from the financial lava flowing our way.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 15:00

No Protection From Gulf Shock: World's Biggest Condom Maker Warns Of Price Hikes

The first-order effect of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the resulting shutdown of the Hormuz chokepoint was the disruption of global energy flows, from LNG to crude to refined products. The second-order effect was a spike in petrochemical prices and a widening shortage of key industrial inputs. Now the third-order effects are beginning to hit everyday goods, with Malaysia-based Karex, the world's largest condom maker, warning that prices are about to explode.

Karex CEO Goh Miah Kiat spoke with Reuters in an exclusive interview about his plan to hike condom prices by 20% to 30%, and possibly more, as the war in Iran continues to disrupt supply chains and drive up critical input and shipping costs.

"The situation is definitely very fragile, prices are expensive... We have no choice but to transfer the costs right now to the customers," Goh said.

He said costs have increased for everything from synthetic rubber and nitrile used in manufacturing condoms to packaging materials and lubricants such as aluminum foil and silicone oil.

Earlier this month, Goldman analyst Georgina Fraser warned clients about petrochemical shock worsening across Asia, with textile and packaging plants emerging as the first major downstream casualties. 

"The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated," Fraser warned in the note. 

Reuters noted, "The condom maker joins a growing list of companies, including medical glove makers, bracing for supply chain bottlenecks as the Iran war strains energy ​and petrochemical flows from the Middle East, disrupting procurement of raw materials." 

At the same time, Kiat said condom demand has surged 30% so far this year, with shipping disruptions further exacerbating shortages. He noted that shipping times to the U.S. and Europe are now two months, up from one month previously.

"We're seeing a lot more condoms actually sitting on vessels that have not arrived at their destination but are highly required," Goh added. He noted that many developing countries do not have large condom supplies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 14:40

The Latest AI Developments In 60 Seconds

As the tempo of AI newsflow approached the frenzied rollercoaster pace of geopolitical headlines during the biggest oil shock in decades, it's becoming easy to get lost in all the latest developments and drama surrounding OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia, government blacklists, the AI circle jerk, sentinent killer robots, and so on...

To help readers keep on top of things, we are launching a brief AI news roundup, which should help you get up to speed in under 60 seconds. 

Here are the four main things you need to know: 

• And just like that, Anthropic goes from Pentagon supply chain risk to $13B anchor tenant of AWS: Amazon’s fresh $5B investment brings its total Anthropic commitment to $13B – with Anthropic pledging $100B+ in AWS cloud spend over 10 years in return, securing 5GW of compute capacity across Tranium2 through Tranium4. On the government track, NSA is reportedly deploying Anthropic’s Mythos model despite the DoD designation – a contradiction that speaks to how deeply embedded Claude has become in mission critical workflows. And perhaps the clearest signal of where employees think this is going: Anthropic’s recent tender offer fell short of the $5-6B investors had lined up – not because demand was weak, but employees choosing to hold, perhaps betting the public listing will price meaningfully higher.
   
• OpenAI, meanwhile, is cutting… not expanding. Kevin Weil and Bill Peebles both departed as OpenAI pivots away from compute heavy side quests towards enterprise monetization and a forthcoming superapp. The Codex revamp signals the same thesis: agentic workflow ownership over model novelty. Both companies are refining narrative and product surface, and capital structure simultaneously – the ARR accounting dispute where OpenAI internally accused Anthropic of overstating revenue metrics signals the positioning war is intensifying.
   
• But the most consequential bet of the week may not be in software at all. Jeff Bezos is close to finalizing a $10B funding round for Project Prometheus – his physical AI lab valued at $28B, with JPM and Blackrock among investors per the Financial Times. While Anthropic and OpenAI race to own the enterprise workflow layer, Bezos is making a different wager: that the next frontier of AI Value Creation is in the physical world – manufacturing, aerospace, robotics, logistics – where the training data isn’t scraped from the internet but locked inside the factory floor. Not to mention, this is the first time Bezos has held an operational role since leaving Amazon in 2021.
   
• And zooming out, the Private Capital machine isn’t slowing. Sequoia raised $7B under new co-stewards Alfred Lin and Pat Grady, nearly double its prior $3.4B comparable fund – for late stage AI expansion. Accel followed with $5B, deploying $4B into a Leaders Fund targeting at least 20 checks averaging $200M each, explicitly naming robotics and defense alongside AI software. Taken together: $12B+ of late stage conviction in a single week, with physical AI now sitting at the center of both mandates. With Capital is concentrating, Manger Selection now matters more than vintage year timing.

Source: UBS

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 14:00

California School Excludes White Kids From Segregated 'Social Justice' Field Trip

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a stunning display of racial exclusion dressed up as “equity,” a California school district barred white students from a taxpayer-funded field trip centered on “social justice.”

Albany Unified School District (AUSD) organized the overnight trip to Virginia exclusively for “young men and women of color” from Albany High School. White kids stayed home while their non-white classmates toured Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), visited civil rights sites, and held discussions on social justice, leadership, and self-awareness.

The trip was officially approved by the board of education and cost the district $42,845. Documents obtained by the parental rights group Defending Education and shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation lay bare the full scope of this race-based program.

EXCLUSIVE: California School Sent Kids On Segregated Field Trip For 'Social Justice': 'Organizing programs and initiatives around racial categories' https://t.co/hxkfukWnkn

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) April 20, 2026

“This unique mentoring program encourages Albany High School young men and women of color to develop social, personal, and academic success skills,” the board document states. “Students gather in a safe, supportive, and empowering environment to voice their needs and challenges. The students engage in enriching discussions on social justice, education, leadership, mental well-being, and self-awareness. This mentoring program is transforming the lives of young men and women of color to make a significant global impact in society.”

Along with HBCU tours, participants visited the Virginia Museum of History and Culture, the Virginia Civil Rights Memorial, and the Black Heritage Trail.

This is not an isolated incident. AUSD maintains a host of other race-specific initiatives. Its 2025-2026 Local Control and Accountability Plan includes “Young Men of Color and Young Women of Color Programs” aimed at providing “social emotional supports to most underserved students” as part of a $1,257,234 budget line for mental health efforts. The district also pushes “professional development” for staff on “culturally responsive/anti-racist pedagogy” to support “student groups who are persistently and historically underserved.”

Hiring practices follow the same pattern. A 2026 superintendent report outlines goals to “Recruit and Retain a Diverse, High Quality Staff” through “equitable recruitment pipelines,” “affinity-based supports,” and a “Black Teacher Project.” The district even tracks staff demographics as a measure of success.

AUSD’s website further details a protocol for any potential ICE activity on campus, instructing staff “NOT to provide any information” and declaring the district a “safe haven” for immigrant families. It also openly states its aim of “Recruiting and retaining excellent, diverse teachers.”

The district did not respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.

Paul Runko, senior director of strategic initiatives at Defending Education, condemned the approach.

“Students and teachers are best served when opportunities are based on merit and individual need, not immutable characteristics like race and ethnicity,” Runko noted.

He added, “Schools should focus their limited time and resources on challenging high-achieving students, supporting those who are struggling, and ensuring all students receive a high-quality education, rather than organizing programs and initiatives around racial categories. Great, hard-working teachers should be supported, mentored, and retained for their effectiveness in the classroom, not based on race or any other characteristic.”

The story ignited immediate backlash on X. Defending Education president Nicki Neily posted details of the affinity groups and district-funded trip, highlighting how AUSD maintains these race-based programs.

The district plans also include staffing goals tied to racial composition, including recruitment and retention programs for teachers of color and district benchmarks for increasing workforce diversity. https://t.co/EzD3gnex1n

— Nicki Neily (@nickineily) April 20, 2026

Other users quickly labeled it revived segregation. One commenter noted the broader pattern, pointing out that districts like LAUSD run identical race-exclusive trips for Black students to visit HBCUs.

Posts sharing the development described it as “no whites allowed” programming and accused the left of teaching minority children to view race through a lens of division rather than unity.

No whites allowed: School district sends kids 'of color' on cross-country 'social justice' field trip https://t.co/yMN9BGqdWN via @worldnetdaily

— Deborah Toppings (@karas13133) April 21, 2026

This episode exposes the core contradiction in today’s woke education machine. The same activists who lecture endlessly about dismantling “systemic racism” have no problem erecting racial barriers when it suits their narrative. In California, where open-border policies and sanctuary rules already strain public resources, school districts like Albany Unified double down on identity politics instead of delivering color-blind excellence.

Taxpayers are left footing the bill for programs that sort children by skin color, train staff in ‘anti-racist’ (racist) ideology, and prioritize demographic quotas over classroom results. Meanwhile, every student—regardless of background—loses out when schools abandon merit for grievance.

The push for “social justice” has produced the very segregation civil rights leaders once fought to end. Districts chasing racial affinity groups and exclusive trips are not healing divides; they are widening them at public expense.

Public schools exist to educate children, not to engineer racial outcomes or indulge activist fantasies. Until districts like Albany Unified face real accountability, this taxpayer-funded racial sorting will only accelerate.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 13:00

 

 

Everybody’s attention has been focused on the Iran War,1 but I want to draw your attention back to a different war — the prior Trade War.

Eighteen months ago, the Trump administration was elected to its second term. After November 2024, there was a lot of noise about what people thought would happen. When Liberation Day rolled around in 2025, many observers, including long-standing Wall Street supporters, were shocked.

The first tariffs were on Canada and Mexico, voiding the deal the president himself had renegotiated; then came 100% tariffs on China, then a long list of other tariffs.

There was a problem with this executive-branch muscle-flexing: It was (obviously) unconstitutional. Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution specifically delegates the power to lay and collect duties, taxes, and excises to Congress.2 This was an unambiguously executive-branch overreach—arguably done in bad faith.3

The U.S. Court of International Trade found the tariffs unconstitutional; the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals (en banc, with every judge in the district participating) overwhelmingly affirmed that finding. It was fast-tracked to the Supreme Court, which ruled 6–3 against the administration.4

The President, when pushing the tariffs, promised four things: 1) Creation of industrial jobs, 2) Lower inflation, 3) Reduction of the trade deficit,  and 4) Reduction in the federal budget deficit.

None of those things happened.

All of them are now worse than before the tariffs were introduced (before the Iran assault began).

Making it worse was the sheer chaos of how the policy was implemented. According to the Cato Institute, there were 50 separate reversals, new policies, changes, pauses, and exemptions (traders called it “TACO”). The chaos froze CFOs and CEOs in place. They stopped hiring. They stopped building new factories and plants. They cut capital expenditures.  “Until we know what the policy is, how can we commit hundreds of millions (or billions) of dollars?”

 

As the chart at top shows, only a few agreements were actually negotiated; normally, trade agreements take years to be hammered out, especially when more than two parties are involved. But even that small handful is now void. No counterparty is going to stick with promises based on a policy the highest court in the land has declared unconstitutional.

But what about those promised benefits of the Tariffs over the year it was in effect? Let’s consider the data, to see how the reasons for implementing tariffs have fared:

Employment: roughly 100,000 manufacturing jobs were lost over the past year:

 

Inflation: As soon as the IEEPA tariffs were announced on Canada and Mexico, prices shot up substantially. After April 2nd, prices continued higher. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell specifically said that part of the reason the Fed is on hold is the higher prices consumers are paying because of tariffs.

In fact, about 90% of companies that import or retail goods said they were forced to raise prices because of tariffs. At the same time, about 75% of those companies said their margins were compressed.

 

Trade deficit: Reached an all-time high. The promised reduction of U.S. imports never happened, and angry allies boycotted U.S. goods.

Budget Deficit: The craziest data point of the whole tariff episode: we collected about $156 billion in tariff revenue, but we already owe back roughly $166 billion—and that figure is estimated to grow to close to $200 billion by 2029. How is that possible?

The law is that if you take money that isn’t yours—money you’re not entitled to, either legally or constitutionally — when you eventually lose that litigation, you don’t just have to return that money; you must return that money plus interest.

 

~~~

~~~

Tariffs were the signature economic policy of Trump’s second term; he not only campaigned on them (the 10% universal tariff floor, 60%+ on Chinese goods, reciprocal tariffs), but also insisted that the revenue source would fund tax cuts and close the deficit, create manufacturing jobs, end the trade deficit, and reduce inflation.

None of the promised benefits occurred over the year when tariffs were in effect. The data shows the exact opposite happened.

This did not come as a surprise to students of economic history. We have studied the Tariff regime in the 1930s, which more or less had the exact same results. They may not have caused the Great Depression, but they certainly made it much worse.

After losing the SCOTUS case, the president lashed out with a different series of tariffs. CATO, the conservative think tank in DC,  responded by observing that the New Tariffs Are Just as Illegal as the Old Ones.5 Look for those to be overturned eventually, also.6

I suspect the war in Iran prevented us from fully digesting what it means for the Tariffs to be overturned.7 That will come about eventually…

 

 

 

 

 

See also:
Trump Administration to Begin Refunding $166 Billion in Tariffs (NY Times, April 20, 2026)

Businesses start applying for US tariff refunds (Semafor, April 20 2026)

Section 122 Is an Anachronism, Not a License for New Tariffs (CATO, April 14, 2026)

 

 

 

Previously:
Winners of SCOTUS Decision Striking Down Tariffs (February 20, 2026)

IEEPA Tariff Ruling’s Losers (February 23, 2026)

IEEPA Tariffs Update (January 27, 2026)

It’s Tariff Week! * (January 12, 2026)

Tariffs Likely To Be Overturned (November 5, 2025)

Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”? (July 31, 2025)

The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Are Tariffs a New US VAT Tax? (March 31, 2025)

MiB: Special Edition: Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 3, 2025)

Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 8, 2025)

Which States Could Suffer the Most From Trade War Tariffs? (September 16, 2019)

 

 

__________

1. Whether it was authorized by Congress or not, ~10 weeks later, with three carrier groups, and 100,000 troops, countless missiles, drones and bombs, it is hard to call this anything other than a “War.”

2, Article I, Section 8, Enumerated Powers:

“The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.”

The same issue exists with spending money appropriated by Congress as well.

3. In his first term, with a less pliable House Speaker and a more assertive legislative branch, the administration’s desire to use tariffs as a negotiation tool had been informally rejected by Congress.

4. An embarrassing dissent opinion came from Kavanaugh, joined by Alito and Thomas. (See this for more)

5. SCOTUS has given POTUS the ability to enact unconstitutional actions for about a year at a time. I wish Justice Roberts understood that “Justice delayed is justice denied.”

6. Hopefully, the judicial system won’t take another year to locate and constitution to figure out what it actually says…7. “Why are so obsessed with Tariffs?” a few emailers have asked. I am reminded of similar emails pre-GFC: “Why do you care so much about Derivatives and CDS?

7. That too, requires Congressional approval, which may or may not be forthcoming. You may be detecting a pattern here…

 

The post Tariff War, Post-SCOTUS Update appeared first on The Big Picture.

US Senator Urges Delay Of CLARITY Act Senate Markup Until May: Report

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

A US senator has reportedly urged Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott to delay the markup for the crypto market structure bill until May, as banking and crypto representatives need more time to resolve disagreements over stablecoin yield provisions.

US Republican Thom Tillis of North Carolina told reporters Monday that he does not expect the Senate Banking Committee to mark up the legislation, also known as the CLARITY Act, in April and has recommended that Scott schedule it for next month, according to Punchbowl News.

Tillis, who has been leading discussions between crypto and banking members, reportedly told Scott: “It’s very important to me not to accelerate things, to hear everybody, and give them a rational basis for what we do accept.”

Continued delays have sparked concern that the CLARITY Act may not pass before the US midterms in November, an event that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said could reverse momentum of the bill.

Source: Brendan Pedersen

“I think if the Democrats were to take the House, which is far from my best case, then the prospects of getting a deal done will just fall apart,” Bessent said in March.

CLARITY Act cannot wait any longer, crypto group says

It comes the same day crypto advocacy group The Digital Chamber sent a letter to the Senate Banking Committee asking it to move the crypto market structure legislation forward to a Senate markup “as soon as the calendar allows.”

The banking industry has raised concerns that allowing stablecoin yield could trigger significant deposit outflows from the traditional banking system, particularly at community banks. 

It argues that those banks may not have enough balance-sheet flexibility to absorb such outflows without relying on higher-cost wholesale funding.

Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and others have pushed for more favorable stablecoin provisions. 

Last month, members of the banking and crypto industries were reportedly close to agreeing on enabling stablecoin rewards tied to crypto activity on third-party crypto platforms, but not for passive balances.

The Digital Chamber noted that it has now been more than 270 days since the House passed the CLARITY Act with bipartisan support.

“Clarity cannot wait,” The Digital Chamber’s government affairs director, Taylor Barr, said, adding: “More than 70 million Americans who have embraced digital assets deserve the regulatory clarity they have waited far too long for.”

Source: The Digital Chamber

Other members of the crypto industry have argued that moving the bill forward is more important than holding out for perfect terms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 12:20

Trump Cryptically References US Intercepted Chinese 'Gift' To Iran

President Trump made an interesting and somewhat cryptic China reference in a series of Tuesday morning Iran-related statements, given to CNBC.

He stated that US forces recently intercepted a vessel carrying what he described as a "gift" from China to Iran as Tehran seeks to rebuild its military during a ceasefire.

via Flickr

The ship had "a gift from China" which "wasn’t very nice," Trump told CNBC. "I was a little surprised," he said, adding that he believed he had an "understanding" with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

He had asserted: "We caught a ship yesterday that had some things on it, which wasn’t very nice, a gift from China."

However, he didn't specify further what the precise nature of the intercepted shipment was, and provided no other details, leaving the public merely guessing and speculating.

It was only a week ago that Trump said Xi had assured him there would be no Chinese weapons shipments to Iran, which is a longstanding partner of Beijing. Trump and Xi are set to hold a historic meeting May 14-15.

But a further clue is Trump's contextual explanation wherein he said Iran had "probably done a little bit of restocking" while implying that Beijing had been helping its efforts. As South China Morning Post further reviews:

The claim was first made by former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and Trump then injected a note of doubt, saying: "Perhaps, I don’t know, but I was a little surprised … but I thought I had an understanding with President Xi [Jinping], but that’s all right. That’s the way war goes."

China's foreign ministry was quick to reject and deny the allegation, with spokesman Guo Jiakun saying, "To my knowledge, this is a foreign-flagged container ship. China opposes any malicious links and hype."

Amb. Haley made the allegation about the ship which was seized by the US Navy on Sunday in a social media post, saying it had "refused repeated orders to stop" and was "linked to chemical shipments for missiles"...

The ship the U.S. seized in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend was headed from China to Iran and is linked to chemical shipments for missiles.

It refused repeated orders to stop.

Another reminder that China is helping prop up Iran’s regime—a reality that can’t be ignored.

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) April 20, 2026

Just prior to this high seas interdiction, Trump had last Saturday struck a very positive and cordial tone when discussing relations with Xi: "President Xi is very happy ​that the Strait ​of Hormuz is open and/or ‌rapidly ⁠opening. Our meeting in China ​will ​be ⁠a special one and, potentially, ​Historic. I ​look ⁠forward to being with President Xi — Much ⁠will ​be accomplished!" he wrote.

But he also said the US Navy's blockade would continue "until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100 per cent complete." Without doubt, the blockade hurts Iran and China, but it is also a high-risk game of chicken, given the longer this goes and the more pain that gets inflicted on the global economy - and so the US taxpayer at the pump - it would spell political trouble for Republicans, especially ahead of the Congressional midterms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 11:20

Oil Spikes, Stocks Suddenly Dump During Warsh Hearing

It's unclear what exactly is driving but the markets are reverting back to old habits this morning with oil spiking...

...dragging Treasury yields higher...

Stocks are tanking...

And so is gold...

There were no obvious geopolitical headline catalysts for the move - though uncertainty remains high about the next 24-48 hours in the Middle East.

Some have suggested the following comment from Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh may have helped (or hindered): “There’s probably no more pressing question than the cost of living.”

Though that does seem like fitting a narrative after the move, the odds of a rate-cut have deteriorated rapidly...

Developing...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 11:09

Wheat Spread Blows Out As Drought Chaos Plagues America's Breadbasket

Hard red winter wheat (HRW) futures widened to their largest premium over soft red wheat (SRW) in more than two years as severe drought intensified across key breadbasket regions in the Great Plains and Midwest. This means traders are pricing in weather impacts and tightening expectations for higher-protein wheat supplies.

It is important to note that HRW is a more valuable protein and is primarily used in bread, rolls, and all-purpose flour. It is grown in the U.S. Plains (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), while SRW is used in cakes, cookies, crackers, and pastries, and is grown in the Eastern U.S. (Ohio Valley, Midwest, Southeast).

The blowout in the HRW-SRW spread, the biggest premium in two years, is mainly due to weather stress as drought grips the central U.S. The market is currently pricing in possible supply imbalances and quality concerns for HRW.

As of mid-April, 61% of the Lower 48 is in drought as the Northern Hemisphere growing season begins and farmers start plantings, according to NOAA. This equates to nearly 149 million people across the Lower 48 affected by drought. About 45 states were experiencing moderate drought conditions as of last week.

US Drought Map:

The drought also complicates matters for ranchers, as the nation's cattle herd is already at its lowest level since the 1950s. As a result, some ranchers may further reduce their herds, which would only push USDA ground beef prices to new record highs.

Related:

• Meteorologists Warn About Super El Nino Event

• Washington, D.C. Will Feel Like June. Cue MSM Climate Doom Propaganda

• Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting

The drought spreading across America's breadbasket is colliding with a secondary effect sparked by the disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of fertilizer shortages that could translate into lower crop yields later this year. Reuters has reported that the UN's food agency warned a prolonged Hormuz crisis could destabilize fertilizer shipments and drive food inflation higher. Time to hedge with a backyard garden.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 10:40

The High Man In The Castle

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The world is again waiting to see what comes out of US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan as the two-week ceasefire deadline looms. Again, it’s a binary outcome: war, with threatened strikes on bridges and power plants in Iran, then perhaps regionally, and an extended closure of Hormuz; or peace, and energy and key goods flowing again.

The markets have decided peace will be the outcome. Because markets. Yes, there are times when bad news logically justifies a rally, e.g., in a real threat of nuclear war, go long: it may not happen, and it can’t hurt if it did. However, when the threat is painful and potentially long-lasting, but not existential, does that logic hold? If so, why bother with geopolitical analysis (and many market participants don’t)? Everything works out in the end, you can’t afford to be the only fund manager who misses the inevitable rally, so just ‘buy all the things.’

Philip K. Dick’s ‘The Man in the High Castle’ is set in a 1962 where the Axis won WW2 and an occupied-US underground shares that on another plane of existence, things worked out differently. They are led by the ancient Chinese Book of Changes, the ‘I Ching’; today, markets view all existence as led by ‘I kerching!’ Yet both views can be flawed. The ‘reality’ where the Axis lost WW2 is also not our world - rather, the British Empire under Churchill is gaining the upper hand in a global struggle with the US. Nobody knows what happens next with Iran.

Is Mr Market ‘The High Man in the Castle’ in thinking everything always works out for him? Is whomever the actual Iranian decision maker the same if thinking the US won’t pull the trigger again if there is no deal, and that Iran wins from that pummeling? Is President Trump if supposing the Iranians are rational rather than theological? We may not have long to find out.

For those who pay attention to geopolitics, there are some potentially optimistic signs. In the Middle East, China’s Xi held talks with Saudi’s MBS and made clear Hormuz needs to reopen. At the same time, Pakistan was told not to send a $1.5bn order of weapons to Sudan, which the Saudis were paying for, and a $4bn deal for the Libyan National Army is also on hold. Likewise, another round of Israel-Lebanon talks are set for Thursday to try to extend their ceasefire, which Iran links to its own, as Syria is cracking down on Hezbollah. Even the European envoy to the Gaza Board of Peace is publicly optimistic about Hamas disarmament talks.

In Europe, Ukraine may be seeing a ‘Second Miracle Year’ and “For the first time in years, outright victory seems possible” via its drone strikes. That’s as the EU hopes to realise its €90bn Ukraine loan within 48 hours following the new government in Budapest. However, the new pro-Russian Bulgarian PM may see things differently alongside the Czech and Slovak leaders, while Romania’s government looks about to fall.

Moreover, the EU is bracing for delays to promised US weapons shipments due to the Iran war, as The Times says the UK isn’t seizing Russian shadow fleet tankers in its waters because berthing and maintaining them could cost too much(!) Meanwhile, France and Germany are said to be considering proposals to give Ukraine only "symbolic" benefits during a normal EU accession process, without granting Kyiv access to the EU's common budget or voting rights. In the same way there may be only symbolic weaponry if the US isn’t able to step up? That’s as the Wall Street Journal notes, ‘In Germany, Everyone Is a Defence Manufacturer Now’ as firms “scramble to reinvent themselves as military vendors to tap into the country’s accelerated rearmament.”

There are also further US-Europe tensions. The US just signed a military defense agreement with Morocco, which some suspect may soon host US military bases now located in Spain, which has been a loud anti-US voice under its current PM; that might suggest the US ability to threaten the Strait of Gibraltar in line with its other recent agreement with Indonesia vis-à-vis the Strait of Malacca. The White House is reportedly also looking at a report that backs Spain having to hand back Ceuta and Melilla, territories it holds in Morocco. German Chancellor Merz has also stated that Cuba poses no risk to third countries, and he does not see on what basis an intervention should take place – which will infuriate the Americans and do nothing to stop them if they intend to act on that front. (Which seems likely.)

There are tensions in the Americas with Canada too, whose PM just stated that close economic ties with US are “a weakness that must be corrected.” He is also talking about boosting his armed forces – though the scale of the imbalance there should be clear when a headline today boasts, “Canadian military beats recruitment target after 1,400 permanent residents sign up.”

By contrast, as Trump pushes a $1.5trn Pentagon budget, he just invoked the Cold War Defence Production Act to force the private sector to move on coal supply chains, domestic petroleum production, natural gas transmission and LNG capacity, and power grid infrastructure. None of that is a quick fix in this crisis, but it is a fix the market won’t provide by itself.

There are additional tensions in Asia as China sends warships to the Pacific while Japanese forces take part in exercises with the US and Philippines. Meanwhile, the crisis in Hormuz has seen Thailand’s government to push ahead with its Landbridge project to connect the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand via new ports on each side connected by a railway and highway, in order to circumvent the Strait of Malacca. The project is seen as making little economic sense by the logistics industry, but that doesn’t mean it might not make geopolitical sense to some players – and then draw the attention of others.

On the trade front, China has released new regulations to counter the "unjustified" extraterritorial use of foreign laws, aimed at protecting its interests. This is seen as clashing with the EU’s proposed regulations in this area, placing European firms in China in potential conflict with either one or the other. The European Chamber of Commerce in China has raised concern that the "broad scope, vague language and wide discretion" of the new Chinese rules goes far beyond similar statutes in the West.

Yet if you are all about Mr Market then none of the above matters; all that does is today’s Senate confirmation hearing for FOMC Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Then again, once upon a time, these were dry affairs for dry men and women, but not in our present reality. Even the Financial Times is carrying an op-ed arguing that the Fed needs to reinvent itself and its mission; but they are thinking more along the lines of ‘how much dot plot’ rather than ‘how do you finance a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget?’, ‘How do you force dollar stablecoins on the world to boost fiscal space?’, and ‘What are central banks *for*?’

More narrowly, Warsh’s finances, which he has lots of, are seen as a potential line of attack for those opposed to his appointment: it’s not so much that he’s very rich, which is the assumed norm for Fed Chairs, but that some of those holdings might be opaque. Because we couldn’t have any vested interests represented in Washington D.C., obviously. That would be unthinkable.

Ask yourself what the version of you would have thought of these headlines in April 2016. Then ask yourself what you think they will read like in April 2036. Only then decide what to do.

“Can anyone alter fate? All of us combined... or one great figure... or someone strategically placed, who happens to be in the right spot. Chance. Accident. And our lives, our world, hanging on it.” - The Man in the High Castle.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 10:20

US Pending Home Sales Rebound Off Record Lows, Despite Rising Mortgage Rates

After rising in February, US Pending Home Sales were expected to continue to improve in March (+0.5% MoM) but - despite apparently rising mortgage rates - sales rose 1.5% MoM (even with February revised up to +2.5% MoM). This dragged pending home sales up to +1.8% YoY (to the highest level since Nov 2024)...

Source: Bloomberg

...extending its bounce off record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

“Contract signings rose in March despite higher mortgage rates, pointing to pent-up housing demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“A greater supply of inventory will help translate that demand into more home sales.”

Pending home sales in the South, the biggest home-selling region in the country, increased 3.9% in March.

They rose 4.4% in the Northeast but decreased in the Midwest and West.

While mortgage rates did pick up at the start of March (Iran War), pending home sales have been disconnected from improving 'affordability' in recent months...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, the pending home sales data tend to be a leading indicator of closings that are captured in the monthly previously owned home sales reports.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 10:08

Texas Electricity Demand Could Quadruple Due To Soaring Data Center Demand: ERCOT

Peak demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory could more than quadruple to 367,790 MW by 2032, driven primarily by data centers as well as other large load customers, the grid operator said in a preliminary forecast published Wednesday and noted by Utility Dive.

Source: ERCOT

ERCOT, which serves most of Texas, set its current peak demand record of 85,508 MW in August 2023. 

The forecast is based on ERCOT’s economic forecasts as well as information provided by utilities working with medium and large load customers, including data centers, cryptocurrency mining, industrial and oil and gas processes.

Large-load demand data from utilities was included at the direction of state lawmakers as part of SB 6, which was passed last year, but ERCOT officials told the Public Utility Commission of Texas that it may seek revisions to the forecast.

Source: ERCOT

The grid operator “has concerns with using the preliminary load forecast values for the Reliability Assessment and any other transmission and resource adequacy analysis,” Chad Seely, ERCOT senior vice president of regulatory policy, general counsel and chief compliance officer, told the PUCT in comments on the forecast filed Wednesday.

“ERCOT would prefer to consult with Commission Staff to evaluate whether it is appropriate to seek adjustment of the forecast.”

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a statement. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected future load growth.” 

Source: ERCOT

ERCOT’s comments on the forecast noted that the grid operator is currently projecting summer 2026 peak load to range between 90,500 MW and 98,000 MW — significantly more modest than the 112,000 MW forecasted peak demand in the preliminary long-term load forecast.

“We look forward to working with the PUCT on potential adjustments to refine how ERCOT ascertains the most accurate information for load forecasting and ensuring the system reliably and efficiently serves Texans,” Vegas said.

ERCOT staff will discuss the forecast at tomorrow’s PUCT open meeting and at the ERCOT board of directors meeting on April 21.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 09:45

Scammers Demand Crypto From Stranded Ships In Strait Of Hormuz: Report

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Fraudulent actors posing as Iranian authorities have reportedly sent messages to shipping companies whose vessels remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, demanding payment in cryptocurrency for safe passage.

On Monday, maritime risk company Marisks issued a warning saying unknown groups had contacted shipowners claiming to represent Iranian security services and requesting transit “fees” in Bitcoin or USDt in exchange for clearance through the strait, according to Reuters.

“These specific messages are a scam,” Marisks reportedly said, adding that they do not originate from Iranian authorities. Tehran has not publicly commented on the claims.

The alerts come as the strategic waterway remains largely closed following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, previously handled around one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports before hostilities escalated in the region.

Earlier this month, reports said Iran was considering charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a tariff payable in Bitcoin, with empty tankers allowed free passage while others could be charged around $1 per barrel of oil.

Crypto “transit fee” scam demands verification docs

The reported scam messages instruct recipients to submit documentation for verification before being assigned a “fee” payable in cryptocurrency, after which safe transit would allegedly be granted at a pre-agreed time.

In one example cited by Marisks, the message stated that Iranian security services would assess eligibility before determining payment in BTC or USDt, framing crypto transfers as a condition for unimpeded passage.

Trump says he won’t allow Iran to impose tolls on ships. Source: The Middle East

The company also suggested that at least one vessel recently targeted by gunfire while attempting to exit the strait may have received such fraudulent instructions, though the information has not been independently verified.

Cointelegraph reached out to Marisks for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Crypto payments to Iran could trigger sanctions risks: Chainalysis

Shipping companies considering paying transit fees in cryptocurrency to Iran could face serious sanctions exposure, according to Chainalysis senior intelligence analyst Kaitlin Martin.

She told Cointelegraph that any payments linked to Iranian-controlled waterways could be treated as “material support,” potentially violating US and international sanctions targeting entities such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 09:30

DHL CEO Warns Prolonged Energy Shock Could Push Global Economy To "Tipping Point"

DHL Group CEO Tobias Meyer warned Bloomberg TV earlier this morning that a persistent Gulf energy shock could morph into broader trouble for the global economy.

"Well we have seen this before, that you have recognized by consumers as having an impact that sparks broader discussion, the real economic implications for people. Now, this hasn't happened yet. We're trying to prevent that from happening. The 10, 12 million barrels of crude oil per day, it will come to that tipping point. Solutions are needed and political momentum is building up to resolve the situation in the Strait of Hormuz," Meyer said.

Meyer's reference to the "tipping point" is clear: if Gulf oil losses of 10 to 12 million barrels per day are not offset soon, global energy and product prices will stay elevated, causing significant knock-on effects throughout the world economy.

DHL CEO Tobias Meyer says we are in danger of reaching a "tipping point" if energy supply issues aren't resolved in the Middle East https://t.co/zTL9UKeCD7 pic.twitter.com/Rg9gj1QuyY

— Bloomberg (@business) April 21, 2026

DHL Group sits at the center of global trade. It operates parcel, express, air freight, ocean freight, and road freight, as well as supply chain services, across more than 220 countries and territories, suggesting that Meyer is a seasoned observer of what to look for ahead of inflection points in the global economy.

Meyer pointed out that the US-Iran conflict and the disruption of the Hormuz chokepoint are already affecting DHL operations, constraining transport routes, tightening freight markets, and pushing shipping rates higher, especially on Asia-Europe lanes.

He added that, with Western airlines avoiding Russian airspace and Gulf carriers operating below pre-war capacity, trade flows from India and Southeast Asia to Europe are becoming more strained.

Meyer is clear that failing to replace the loss of 10 million to 12 million barrels of crude oil per day in the Gulf would almost certainly push the global economy to a "tipping point" from which there is no return.

Separately, the International Energy Agency released a report early last week that stated, "The Iran war has thoroughly upended the global outlook for oil consumption. Demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist."

JPMorgan's top commodity expert recently described how the demand destruction crisis would spread from the Gulf area, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before ultimately affecting the US, especially California.

Source

With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut by Iran, a U.S. naval blockade in place, and U.S.-Iran talks potentially set for later today ahead of Wednesday's ceasefire deadline, even an immediate diplomatic breakthrough would not restore energy flows overnight. Gulf-area export hubs would still take months to return to normal.

This shows that the Gulf energy shock threatens to push the global economy dangerously close to the tipping point Meyer describes.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 09:15

Trump Invokes Defense Production Act To Sign Energy-Related Directives

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on April 20 invoked the Defense Production Act to issue a series of memorandums focused on strengthening coal supply chains, ​natural gas transmission, and ​liquefied natural gas capacity.

Trump also signed memos aimed at boosting domestic petroleum production, enhancing grid infrastructure, and expanding the deployment of “large-scale energy” and related infrastructure.

In a post on X, White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said the memos would allow the Energy Department to use funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to strengthen the country’s “grid infrastructure and unleash reliable, affordable, secure energy.”

The Defense Production ​Act is ​a ⁠cold war-era legislation that grants the president authority to expand and expedite the supply of materials from the domestic industrial base for national security purposes.

In the memos, Trump cited his Jan. 20, 2025, executive order declaring a national energy emergency, noting that insufficient energy supply could expose the country to “hostile foreign actors” and risk national security.

“Consistent with that declaration, I find that ensuring the domestic capability for development, manufacturing, and deployment of large-scale energy and energy-related infrastructure is essential to United States national defense, yet due to financing risks, regulatory delays, and market barriers, these cannot be met in full under existing market conditions,” the president stated in one of his memos.

The memos direct the Energy Department to make “necessary purchases, commitments, and financial instruments” to support projects expanding oil production, coal supply chains, natural gas transmission, liquefied natural gas capacity, grid infrastructure, and other energy-related infrastructure.

The move came as the Trump administration worked to curb surging commodity prices fueled by the conflict with Iran, which has driven up oil ​and fertilizer costs.

Iran last week said it would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but started charging tolls and later reinstated “strict military oversight” over the strait due to the resulting U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. The United States then imposed a blockade against vessels visiting Iranian ports on April 13 after the United States said that Iran was not allowing free passage through the strait, which was a condition for the ceasefire.

The situation heightened market uncertainty and pushed oil prices higher on April 20, with crude trading at about $94.75 on April 20.

To ease pressure on oil markets and ensure adequate supply, the Trump administration on April 17 renewed a sanctions waiver that allows nations to buy Russian oil stranded at sea, extending it through May 16 after the previous license expired on April 11.

In February, the Treasury Department issued a general license authorizing the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Venezuela as part of an effort to boost oil supply chains.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 09:01

"We're On Borrowed Time": Vitol LNG Chief Warns Of Coming Food Price Shock

Pablo Galante Escobar, the head of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Vitol, warned the audience at the FT Commodities Summit earlier today that the "world is on borrowed time" and that the Gulf energy shock will develop into a food crisis unless LNG flows resume through the Hormuz chokepoint.

"We are on borrowed time. Every day this trade remains closed and every day production does not come back, we are building a problem for the future, and we are building a problem that, as I said, will be transferred from the energy side into many different sectors, with the food sector being a very important one," Escobar said, who works world's biggest independent energy trader.

Escobar continued, "This is not sustainable, or the energy crisis will become a food crisis. Only gas can supply the feed for fertilizers. We are building a problem for the future."

He added that even if the Hormuz chokepoint reopened today, it could still take three to five months for undamaged LNG production to fully recover.

Longer term, the Gulf market could lose about 20 million tons per year of global LNG supply growth in 2027 and 2028 because of damage to Qatari capacity and delays to new regional projects. 

Escobar is correct that the second- and third-order effects of Gulf-related LNG supply disruptions are already rippling through the global fertilizer chain, sending prices sharply higher and triggering shortages across critical agricultural belts.

The downstream risk has been very clear: reduced fertilizer availability and higher input costs threaten to dent crop harvest yields later this year. In other words, this potentially sets the stage for a food price inflation spike: 

• Fertilizer Crisis Worse Than Goldman Forecasted, Sees Two Clear Winners

• Why The Fertilizer Crisis May Spark Record Inflows Into Agri ETFs

• 70% Of US Farmers Say That They Won't Be Able To Buy All The Fertilizer They Need In 2026

• Countdown Begins: Former Central Bank Advisor Warns Food-Price Shock Could Hit "Within 6 To 9 Months"

Global food prices vs. US diesel prices at pump vs. US urea spot prices  

Also at the FT Commodities Summit, Julien Bourdeau, global head of LNG at Mercuria, said the previously expected global LNG glut that was expected to swamp the world has been postponed, with the 2026 market getting shorter. 

One month ago, we asked a very simple question: "Will QatarEnergy's LNG Fiasco Derail Goldman's Prewar View Of A Mega LNG Wave."

Facing a possible food inflation spike later this year suggests one thing: hedge now. Plant a backyard garden, buy a chicken coop, and become more self-sufficient on your own land.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 08:45

US Employment Additions Accelerate As Retail Sales Soar In March

BofA's (almost) omnipotent analysts forecasted a stronger than expected retail sales print this morning as tax refunds trump surging gas prices...

BofA credit/debit card spending data suggests stronger retail sales than estimates (consensus 1.4% headline, 1.4% ex auto, 0.2% control group) despite surging gas prices, driven by higher YTD tax refunds pic.twitter.com/6m6UvTpkr0

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 21, 2026

Headline retail sales printed +1.7% MoM in March (vs +1.4% MoM exp) - the strongest monthly rise since Jan 2023 - leaving retail sales up 4.0% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Gasoline Station spending dominated the surge in spending... 

Source: Bloomberg

Automobile Wholesalers saw a sizable decline last month...

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Autos and Ex-Autos-and-Gas both also beat expectations dramatically (+1.9% MoM vs +1.4% MoM and +0.6% MoM vs +0.3% MoM respectively).

Source: Bloomberg

The Retail Sales Control Group - which plugs directly into the GDP calculation - rose for the 3rd month in a row, up 0.7% MoM (smashing expectations of +0.2% MoM)...

Source: Bloomberg

Here's BofA's color on what was behind the spending...

More paid at the pump, but still plenty left in the wallet

As expected, gas spending rose sharply in March reflecting higher gas prices. While energy’s share of total consumer spending has declined steadily over time, standing at about 4% as of January, it remains higher for lower income HHs than higher income HHs. Accordingly, y/y gas spending among lower income HHs rose slightly more than higher income HHs in the last few weeks. But, despite higher gas spending, most sectors posted m/m gains in March, and total card ex gas spending remained at healthy levels.

Limited equity sell-off, no sign of higher income pullback

One factor supporting ex gas card spending despite higher oil prices may be the largely contained equity market sell-off from the Iran war, with the peak to trough (end Jan to Mar) decline below 10%. We think a sustained sell-off in excess of 20% is needed for a meaningful pullback in higher income spending via negative wealth effects. Indeed, BAC data show little evidence that higher income HHs have curtailed spending

OBBBA related tax refunds continue to provide support

Second, the $45bn consumer stimulus from the OBBBA since the start of this year’s tax refund season, while smaller than our expectations, is still supportive. Also, BAC data show that YTD ’26 tax refund growth has been stronger among higher income HHs than lower income HHs. This is reverse of last year but is in line with expectations as OBBBA tax changes accrued more to HHs with higher tax liabilities. This further reinforces K-shaped consumer spending growth.

With all that in the background, we also note that ADP weekly employment change index soared once again last week to an average of 54,750 jobs added per week for the last four weeks...

...and that was during the war - seems slumping consumer sentiment did not stall spending or employers' confidence.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 08:38

US Futures Resume Rally As Iran Optimism Returns

The optimism that helped list the S&P on 11 of the prior 12 days, and the Nasdaq on 13 consecutive days until Monday's modest pullback, is back - because one can apparently draw the same exact event for 3 weeks now - and sending US equity futures higher again on signs that Iran will attend talks with the US, while the US president said it’s “highly unlikely” that he’d extend the truce. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, rebounding from Monday’s decline, and supposed by solid earnings, the AI narrative and positioning even as the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% with most Mag 7 names higher: AMZN +2.8%, META +0.6%, AAPL -0.4%. Apple announced its new CEO after yesterday’s close (hardware chief John Ternus will become the CEO effective September 1st); AMZN announced it will invest another $25bn in Anthropic with Anthropic committing to spending more than $100bn over the next 10yr on AWS. 10Y yields added 1bps to 4.26%. Commodities are mostly lower: Copper -0.5%, Silver -1.0%, WTI crude was flat at $87.60 per barrel, reversing a modest loss. Retail sales and Warsh’s confirmation hearing will be in focus later.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher after the iPhone maker said hardware chief John Ternus will be its next CEO, with current leader Tim Cook moving to the role of executive chairman. AMZN rises 3% after the cloud-computing and e-commerce giant said it is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time (META +0.5%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.2%).

• 3M Co. (MMM) slips 2% after the maker of Post-it notes, protective equipment and auto maintenance products reported adjusted organic growth that missed estimates.
• Amazon suppliers rise on Amazon’s investment in Anthropic. Marvell Technology (MRVL) +2%, Credo Technology (CRDO) +5% and Astera Labs (ALAB) +8%.
• Alaska Air (ALK) slips 1.2% after the carrier announced it will be suspending full-year guidance due to higher fuel costs. The company also expects a higher adjusted loss-per-share in the second quarter than what Wall Street is estimating.
• Avis Budget (CAR) rises 7% and is set to extend its short squeeze for a fourth consecutive session.
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) falls 5% after the retailer reported comparable sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• UnitedHealth (UNH) climbs 7% after reporting first quarter profit that blew past Wall Street expectations. The company also boosted its outlook for the year, a sign of the health conglomerate’s progress toward rebuilding credibility with investors after a collapse a year ago.

In corporate news, Apple CEO Tim Cook will hand the reins to hardware boss John Ternus later this year. Ternus will face challenges even as he maintains Apple’s device empire — needing to take chances, enter new product categories and find the company’s footing in AI. Elsewhere in tech, Amazon is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time, a deal that strengthens ties in in an increasingly competitive AI race. The deal was struck at a valuation of $350 billion, not including the new funding, Anthropic said.

Sentiment rose overnight even though Trump signaled that a ceasefire extension is unlikely, while Iran hasn’t confirmed who, if anyone, will travel to the Pakistani capital for peace talks.  Strategists continue to look outside of geopolitics, with JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas raising his year-end S&P 500 price target to 7,600 on the back of strong tech and AI earnings. But for Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, the market is showing signs of “irrational exuberance 2.0,” with the strength of the recent equity rally defying logic and largely based on the belief in a “POTUS Put.”

The US is waiting to see if Iran will take part in a second round of ceasefire talks before the truce expires on Wednesday. President Donald Trump said his vice president, JD Vance, was ready to leave for negotiations in Pakistan. Tehran has yet to confirm its attendance.

Speaking to Bloomberg News in a phone interview on Monday, Trump said he would not be “rushed into making a bad deal” and that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports would stay in place until an agreement is reached. Additionally, the president said a ceasefire extension beyond late Wednesday was unlikely.

“Traders will understandably be focused on events in Pakistan, with talks expected to resume ahead of tomorrow’s deadline,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

Solid early earnings are also helping. The Citi US earnings revisions index has moved back into positive territory after two negative weekly prints. Of the 49 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 12% have missed.

The Federal Reserve’s future is also on the minds of traders, as Kevin Warsh for his confirmation hearing. Warsh is Trump’s pick to replace the central bank’s current chair, Jerome Powell. It could be one of the most contentious such hearings in many decades. Warsh, in prepared remarks, vowed to protect the Fed’s independence if he were confirmed to the role.

“We think that the appointment of Kevin Warsh is unlikely to significantly adjust the balance of the Federal Open Market Committee – or, in any case, not to the extent that it would lead to any non-key rate cuts that are not justified by the US economic situation and the institution’s mandate,” CIC economists including Adrien Régnier-Laurent wrote in a note.

Earnings season rolled on, with UnitedHealth Group Inc. jumping 7.4% during premarket trading after the health insurer boosted its profit forecast. General Electric Co. gained 1.3% after the jet-engine manufacturer’s first-quarter profit came ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. 

Europe's The Stoxx 600 is higher by 0.3% with IT near the top of the leaderboard. Insurance and utilities outperformed, while food and beverage names fell, led by Royal Unibrew which said its partnership deal with PepsiCo in several nations will expire at the end of 2028.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• British Land shares rise as much as 3.7% as the commercial property group upgrades earnings guidance.
• BF shares rise as much as 12% to a record high after the Italian agriculture services company received a voluntary takeover offer from Arum and Dompè Holding at a significant premium to Monday’s close.
• THG shares rise as much as 9.8% after the online retailer said it delivered its best 1Q revenue growth since 2021, as both the Beauty and Nutrition arms reported positive topline momentum.
• J D Wetherspoon gains as much as 5.9% as Peel Hunt upgrades to add from hold following recent share-price weakness, noting the pub operator has been trading at an EV/Ebitda close to all-time lows.
• Beiersdorf falls as much as 3.6% after the German personal care products group and Nivea owner reported first-quarter earnings which fell short of expectations.
• AB Foods shares drop as much as 7.1%, the most since January, after the company downgraded expectations for its Sugar business and said its clothing arm Primark experienced softer trading in April as the Middle East conflict hit consumer confidence.
• Royal Unibrew shares plunge as much as 23% after the Danish brewer said its partnership with PepsiCo in Denmark, Finland and the Baltic states will end when the current license agreements expire at the end of 2028.
• Crest Nicholson shares tumble as much as 45% to a record low as the UK homebuilder cuts full-year earnings guidance due to economic uncertainty and softening land sales that have caused it to prioritize cash preservation.
• Fagerhult falls as much as 20% after the Swedish lights and lighting systems manufacturer said first-quarter earnings would be weaker than it expected due to “continued general market uncertainty, largely related to the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East.”
• Barco drops as much as 10% as the consumer electronics firm warned that its full-year guidance is in doubt if current macro‑economic conditions and geopolitical tensions persist.
• Retail Estates shares decline as much as 5.2% after being downgraded at KBC Securities following its move to enter the French market. Analysts said it makes strategic sense, but warn that financing the expansion will erode earnings per share growth.
• Avanza shares fall as much as 7.8% after the Swedish retail trading platform reported first-quarter results that analysts viewed as disappointing.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, as optimism over a potential resumption of negotiations ahead of a looming Middle East ceasefire deadline lifted sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9% to the highest in seven weeks. Technology megacaps including TSMC and SK Hynix were among the top contributors to the gauge’s gains. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed to a record, powered by chipmakers as the artificial intelligence trade regained momentum.  Fresh signals that Iran and the US are continuing to work on a deal to end the war buoyed risk-on sentiment across Asia even though President Donald Trump said he’s unlikely to extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran. Investors are also starting to refocus on fundamentals, reverting to familiar themes such as AI-related trades. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has lagged the S&P 500 gauge since the war began given the higher exposure of Asian economies to oil imports from the Middle East. Still, the gap has narrowed as markets price in a de-escalation of the conflict. The Asian benchmark has risen 13% so far this year, versus 3.9% jump in its US peer.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index is higher by 0.2% with the greenback higher versus all major peers with the exception of Kiwi dollar, which has been boosted by firmer inflation data.

In rates, bonds edged lower into the early US session led by the front-end of the curve where 2-year yields are up almost 2bp on the day but price action has been muted with oil futures edging lower. Treasuries see subtle bear flattening move with long-end yields broadly unchanged on the day and front-end cheaper by around 2bp, tightening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1bp and 1.2bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade around 4.26% with bunds outperforming by 1bp on the sector, gilts trading broadly in line. UK gilts reversed a brief wobble after a top UK official said he felt pressure from the government to approve Peter Mandelson’s appointment.  Session focus includes Kevin Warsh scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee, while data includes March retail sales. 

In commodities, brent crude futures are down around 0.8% and back below $95/bbl despite US President Trump’s threat to not extend the current truce with Iran. Precious metals are on the backfoot with spot gold and silver down 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.  

Today's US economic data calendar slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), April Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, March retail sales (8:30am), February business inventories, March pending home sales (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.6%
• CAC 40 +0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.25%
• VIX +0.2 points at 19.08
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1194.04
• euro -0.2% at $1.1759
• WTI crude -1.8% at $88.04/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran has yet to confirm its participation in new peace talks, underscoring uncertainty around the negotiations. Donald Trump said he’s “highly unlikely” to extend the truce and JD Vance is expected to travel to Islamabad as soon as tonight. BBG
• In private, Iranian officials say they’re preparing to resume peace talks with the US. In public, however, they are far more wary, even pugnacious at times as they blame the White House for putting diplomacy at risk. NYT
• The United States has expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran will go ahead in Pakistan and a senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering joining, but significant uncertainty remained on Tuesday as the end of a ceasefire ‌loomed. RTRS
• Kevin Warsh heads to Capitol Hill for his Fed chair confirmation hearing, where he’ll face scrutiny from lawmakers. In prepared remarks, he pledged to protect the central bank’s independence and steer clear of “distractions” in policymaking. BBG
• China’s alumina imports surged to a two-year high in March as Middle East disruptions rerouted cargoes, boosting aluminum output and margins. Copper production rose to a record 1.33 million tons. BBG
• Indonesian stocks slid after MSCI extended the review period to June as it assesses the impact of recent regulatory reforms. BBG
• UK businesses stepped up job cuts in March. The number of employees on payrolls fell by 11,000 — the biggest drop since November — in a sign that the Iran war is causing caution in the labor market. BBG
• One of the US’s top insurance regulators has warned that a “transformation” in the sector has pushed insurers into riskier private investments that are “less appropriate” for retirees. FT
• Amazon will invest another $5 billion in Anthropic at a $350 billion valuation, and may inject $20 billion more over time. The startup plans to spend over $100 billion on Amazon’s cloud and chips over the next decade. BBG

Iran War Latest

• No Iranian delegation, primary or secondary, have travelled to Islamabad and that reported about the departure of such officials and claims about meeting times were inaccurate, IRIB reported. The earlier reports by Al Jazeera, citing a Pakistani diplomatic source, suggested that the Iranian preliminary delegation and US delegation are present in Islamabad.
• "A Pakistani official source told Al Arabiya: The US and Iranian delegations will arrive in Islamabad today at the same time"; "The second round of negotiations will be held as scheduled". "We currently have no information about extending the ceasefire between America and Iran".
• US VP Vance is to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for Iran talks, according to sources cited by Axios.
• US-Iran negotiations may begin Wednesday morning in Islamabad, while US is said to believe that there is a split within the Iranian negotiating team, according to Al Arabiya citing CNN network sources.
• Pakistan media sources note expectations US and Iran will reach an agreement by Wednesday, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iranian official tells Washington Post that they have largely agreed on the broad outlines of the agreement, according to Al Arabiya.
• Pakistan asked the US and Iran to extend the truce for two more weeks, while Pakistani media sources say PM Sharif may announce a ceasefire extension on Tuesday, according to Al Arabiya.
• Journalist Elster writes "Pakistani source told Reuters that Trump may attend talks with Iran in person or remotely if an agreement is reached".
• White House Press Secretary Leavitt said US has never been so close to making a good deal with Iran, adds Trump still has options if there is no deal with Iran.
• Iranian oil tanker entered Iran's territorial waters, despite the US blockade, with an escort from the Iranian navy, Al-Mayadeen reported.
• Iran's Judiciary head said it is "very possible" that negotiations will not lead to a result, in that scenario Iran will act again and there will be a response to the US' interception of a Iranian ship.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the seizure of Iranian cargo ship Touska by US forces and called for the “immediate release of the Iranian vessel, its sailors, crew and their families”, according to CNN.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said by applying the blockade and violating the ceasefire, Trump wants to turn this negotiation table into a table of surrender or to justify a renewed war. We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the last two weeks, we have prepared to face new cards on the battlefield.
• Israel-Lebanon ceasefire violated, ISNA reported, citing sources.
• Israeli army reportedly withdrew part of its forces south of Lebanon following the start of the ceasefire, according to sources cited by Haaretz.
• UN agency is reportedly preparing evacuation plan from Strait of Hormuz for hundreds of ships, Bloomberg reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed with the region cautious amid uncertainty regarding US-Iran talks ahead of the ceasefire expiry, as there were numerous conflicting reports on when they will occur and if Iran will take part. Nonetheless, the latest relevant headlines provide some optimism, with sources stating that the US and Iran are expected to reach an agreement by Wednesday and that Pakistan's PM is to ask for a two-week ceasefire extension, while there remains no official confirmation from Tehran about attending talks. ASX 200 trades subdued with the index dragged lower by weakness in health care, energy, mining and financials, while a quarterly production update from Rio Tinto failed to meaningfully inspire. Nikkei 225 rallied to back above the 59,000 level with upside facilitated by tech strength and expectations for the BoJ to refrain from hiking rates at next week's meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were contained amid earnings releases and the mixed performance in the tech sector, while markets failed to benefit from the NDRC head's pledge that officials will help actively increase effective domestic demand and will further enhance supply chain resilience.

Top Asian News

• New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%).
• New Zealand Inflation Rate YoY (Q1) Y/Y 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.1%, Low. 2.8%, High. 3.1%)
• New Zealand RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index YY (Q1) 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%).
• Taiwan Export Orders (Mar) Y/Y 65.9% vs exp. 44.1% (prev. 23.8%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are modestly rebounding from Monday’s losses, however the CAC 40 and SMI are failing to bounce. The DAX 40 is the outperformer, with most of the index in the green but cautiously awaiting SAP earnings on Thursday. European sectors are broadly gaining. Technology and Utilities top the pile while Food, Beverage & Tobacco lags as AB Foods weighs on the sector. Despite reaffirming its FY outlook, failure to show revenue growth and the announcement of the demerger of Primark from the food business have hit the Co.’s shares.

Top European News

• Former UK Foreign Ministry Official Olly Robbins said the Cabinet Office suggested Peter Mandelson not be vetted at all; Foreign Office overruled it.
• Former UK Foreign Ministry Official Olly Robbins said there was a "dismissive attitude" from Number Ten towards Mandelson's vetting as they wanted to get him out to Washington as quickly as possible. Foreign Office was under constant pressure from the PM's office to get Peter Mandelson cleared to become US ambassador.
• French PM Lecornu has asked ministers to reduce spending by an extra EUR 4bln, AFP reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer tells Mexican firms that auto and steel tariffs will not go down to zero, Reuters reports citing sources.
• USTR Greer met with Mexico's President Sheinbaum on Monday ahead of North America trade pact review.
• US Trade Representative said US and Mexico are to launch USMCA talks on the week of May 25th and they are to be held in Mexico City.
• US Interior Secretary Bergum said Chinese solar panels are a national security issue.

FX

• Despite elements of risk in other assets, FX displays a risk-off bias today, with all G10 currencies bar NZD lower against the greenback.
• DXY trades higher by 0.2%. Though there is no clear driver, the index bounced off a session low of 98.10, continuing a rebound from Monday's 98.00. This upside came around news that an Iranian delegation had not departed for Islamabad, contrasting earlier reporting. Technicals also likely at play here, around this news, USD/JPY surpassed the 159.00 mark, crude bounced, but hit resistance at USD 95.00/bbl - explaining why the haven USD and energy benchmarks are not in tandem this morning.
• GBP is weaker against the Buck and EUR, participants are focusing on domestic political updates, geopolitics and a hawkish Labour force survey this morning. On politics, former UK Foreign Ministry Official Robbins essentially denied the PM's claims of due process in relation to Mandelson's appointment. This leaves the PM in a somewhat weaker position - and as such, we saw a c. 15pip move in EUR/GBP, which has since paired. The data set for Feb, saw hotter-than-expected wage metrics and a much lower-than-expected unemployment rate. The series will be welcomed by policymakers on Threadneedle/Downing Street, signalling each were in a comfortable position pre-Middle East war & energy shock. ING writes "the details reveal the drop in the jobless rate is pretty much solely down to a rise in “economic inactivity” – that is, people neither in work nor actively seeking it." MUFG post-data wrote "We are currently forecasting only one rate hike from the BoE." GBP/USD saw an initial kneejerk higher, which since reversed amid the ongoing Robbins hearing.
• NZD leads the G10 space after the latest inflation data spurred bets for rate hikes. Q1 metrics revealed that inflation surprisingly remained elevated above the RBNZ's 1-3% target. Markets are back to pricing in 81bps of tightening by year-end, similar to levels seen post-Bremen comments, though more hawkish than Monday.

Central Banks

• BoJ is reportedly set to stay on hold in April but keep a hawkish stance, Bloomberg reports citing sources. This adds to further reports from the Nikkei that the BoJ is to hold rates steady in April and to make a decision in June after assessing the situation in the Middle East.
• BoJ Financial System Report: Japan’s financial system has been maintaining stability on the whole; Japanese banks have sufficient capital bases and stable funding bases to withstand various stress situations.
• ECB's de Guindos said high market valuations, private credit and fiscal policy are among the financial stability risks; monetary policy must be prudent, should keep a cool head.
• CNB Vice-Governor Zamrazilova tells Czech radio that inflation this year can be expected to be just under 3%.
• BoK's new Governor Shin said to seek inflation stability and financial stability through cautious and flexible monetary policy operations.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed, with US and UK paper in the red, whilst Bunds remain afloat. Ultimately, focus has been on the volatile geopolitical environment, with attention on developments surrounding US-Iran second round talks. Initially, there were reports via a Pakistani source which suggested that the US-Iran delegation teams had arrived in Islamabad, however, Iranian State TV pushed back on these claims calling them “baseless” – they said that Iran “has not yet sent a delegation”. Markets will await how this unfolds, ahead of the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday.
• USTs are lower by around 3 ticks and currently within a 111-17 to 111-22+ range. Ultimately moving at the whim of energy price fluctuations, with a recent bout of pressure in the benchmark after the Iranian side pushed back on reports that a delegation had arrived in Pakistan. Geopols aside, US March retail sales are the main focus (exp. 1.4% M/M, prev. 0.6%), alongside the weekly ADP employment change and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow update. Elsewhere, Fed’s Waller is on the docket, though will not touch on monetary policy given the Bank is on blackout; Kevin Warsh’s senate hearing is also due. From a yield perspective, the curve is a touch steeper this morning; the 2yr currently resides around 3.73%. A positive outcome from the second round of talks could see the 2yr breach back below the 3.70% and approach near-term lows at 3.67%.
• Bunds are firmer this morning by around 15 ticks, and currently trade towards the mid-point of a 125.90 to 126.17 range. German paper appears to be benefiting from lower energy prices. On the yield front, the curve is lower across the horizon, but with the long-end underperforming. It seems to be the view of bond traders that the Middle East situation has only near-term implications, with 10yr yield action fairly sideways in the past week or so. On the data front, German ZEW deteriorated from the prior, and beneath the consensus. Not all too surprising given this data encapsulates more of the Iran war. No move in Bunds were seen on the data.
• Gilts are currently trading with losses of around 10 ticks, and hold within a 87.83 to 88.42 range. In recent days, domestic politics has taken a bit of attention away from the Middle East situation. The latest update came from the Former UK Foreign Ministry Official Olly Robbins, who said that the Cabinet Office suggested that Mandelson should not be vetted at all, and this was overruled by the Foreign Office. A comment which does not play in favour of PM Starmer, who has managed to shrug off some of the recent pressure he has faced. A little bit of downside was seen in Gilts at the time, but Robbins’ comments came in close proximity to geopolitical updates, which weighed on the broader complex. On the data front, UK unemployment rate fell to 4.9% (exp. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%); which would be welcomed at the BoE.

Commodities

• Crude futures are softer thus far but have clambered off worst levels over US-Iran uncertainty. More recently, reports out of Iran suggest that no delegation has been sent to Islamabad yet, which contradicts earlier reports by Al Jazeera, citing a Pakistani source, that both the Iranian and US teams are present in Islamabad. Both WTI and Brent briefly topped above USD 87/bbl and USD 95/bbl, respectively, before falling back.
• Other updates include the expectation that US VP Vance arrives in Islamabad on Tuesday for the talks, while President Trump stated that the US blockade will remain in place until a deal is reached.
• Spot gold continues to trade within its ascending channel but has slipped back below the USD 4800/oz handle (current range: USD 4773-4833/oz). The modest upside seen in the dollar, thus far, is weighing on the yellow metal, with the 50-SMA at 4891 also providing a ceiling for the metal. Elsewhere, 3M LME Copper oscillates in a tight USD 13.2k-13.3k/t range amid the mixed risk appetite as markets look to potential US-Iran talks.
• Russia is to pause Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1st, Reuters reports citing industry sources.
• Gunvor Head of Research Lasserre said oil markets are "one month away from tank bottoms".
• China to lower retail Gasoline and Diesel prices by 555 and 530 CNY/t from April 22nd.
• Kuwait's force majeure on oil shipments is to have a limited impact on South Korea, according to an official cited by Reuters.
• White House signs memo related to coal supply chains; Trump signs determination related to defence production act on domestic petroleum production.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin, on the potential resumption of flows via Druzhba, said Russia is technically ready but there was "blackmail from Kyiv".
• EU's Kallas said they are to make decisions on Ukraine's EUR 90bln loan on Wednesday.
• Explosion heard in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia.
• Japan is to permit its companies to export lethal weaponry for the first time, in a landmark break with its pacifist stance, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Mar Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 0.5%
• 10:00 am: United States Mar Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.8%
• 10:00 am: United States Fed Chair Nominee Warsh Testifies in Confirmation Hearing
• 2:30 pm: United States Fed’s Waller Speaks on Fed Operations

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In terms of latest on Iran, all eyes are on whether and in what form expected talks in Islamabad take place over the next day or so ahead of the expiration of the earlier two-week ceasefire. Trump said yesterday that this would expire on “Wednesday evening Washington time" and warned that it was “highly unlikely” that he’d extend the ceasefire. Various reporting suggests that Vice President Vance is expected depart to Islamabad today, and we also saw reporting by the New York Times and others that Iran is also sending a team to Islamabad for negotiations. With a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry earlier saying that Tehran had no plans to attend the negotiations, this has given a more positive light on the talks going ahead, though it remains unclear who would lead the Iranian delegation. 

While the Strait of Hormuz remained shut, the prospects for imminent talks have seen market sentiment edge higher overnight after a subdued session on Monday. Brent crude prices are -0.62% lower at $94.89/bbl after a +5.64% rise yesterday. S&P 500 (+0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.25%) futures are so far recovering most of yesterday's losses, declines that got less severe as the day progressed with the S&P 500 only dipping -0.24% in the end. The probability of traffic returning to normal in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of May, according to Polymarket, stands at 69% this morning from 63% this time yesterday.

The NASDAQ (-0.26%) did end a 13-day winning run, the longest streak since 1992 and only bettered on four occasions in the index's 55-year history. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index did achieve a 14th consecutive gain though. US Treasuries also slipped back modestly, with the 2yr yield (+1.5bps) up to 3.72%, and the 10yr yield (+0.2bps) up to 4.25%. And with doubts creeping back in, the VIX (+1.39pts) saw its biggest daily jump in 3 weeks, though at 18.87pts it still closed below its level on February 27, before the Iran strikes began.

The hangover from the weekend's negative news led to a fresh rise in oil prices, particularly given warnings from Trump that he wouldn’t open the Strait of Hormuz until a deal was signed. So Brent crude was up +5.64% to $95.48/bbl by the close, and there was a clear move higher across the futures curve too, with 6-month Brent futures (+3.16%) back up to $81.97/bbl. And in turn, those moves filtered into inflation pricing, with the 1yr US inflation swap (+2.6bps) up to 3.13%, whilst the Euro inflation swap (+9.1bps) moved up to 3.06%.

This morning, Asian equity markets are rallying, with the KOSPI (+2.31%) again leading the way, driven by optimism surrounding AI-related chip manufacturers. Japanese stocks are also being supported by technology shares, as evidenced by the Nikkei (+1.29%) which is trading significantly higher. On the other hand, Chinese stocks are more mixed with the Hang Seng (+0.13%) slightly higher but the CSI (-0.35%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.24%) lower.

As much as the Middle East is the main focus for markets, especially as we near the end of the ceasefire, today there’ll also be attention on Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing (10am ET) to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. He’s appearing at the Senate Banking Committee, so investors will get an opportunity to hear his views on policy and a whole array of Fed-related issues. For more information, our US economists published a note on Friday (link here) where they outline 5 things to watch. They think the critical questions will be how forcefully Warsh argues for near-term rate cuts, particularly given the recent upside risks to inflation from the Iran war, as well as views on Fed independence. In prepared remarks that were reported yesterday, Warsh says that “monetary policy independence is essential” but also noting that “Fed independence is largely up to the Fed” and that “Fed independence is placed at greatest risk when it strays into fiscal and social policies where it has neither authority nor expertise.” So focusing on the importance of Fed independence but also suggesting that the central bank needs to earn it.  

Whilst the focus will be on Warsh, another point to look out for will be Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who’s said he’ll block any Fed appointments until the Department of Justice probe into Chair Powell is over. He sits on the Senate Banking Committee, but the Republicans only have a 13-11 majority, meaning if Tillis votes against then he could hold up Warsh’s nomination if the Democrats joined him. Powell’s current term as Chair concludes in mid-May, but he has a separate seat on the Board of Governors that lasts until January 2028, and at the most recent press conference, Powell said he’d serve as Chair pro tempore until his successor was confirmed. For reference, that’s what happened between Powell’s first and second terms as Powell awaited Senate confirmation, but that was when Powell himself had been re-nominated by President Biden, whereas Trump has suggested that “I’ll have to fire him” if Powell didn’t leave the Fed.

Earlier in Europe, markets underperformed their US counterparts, reflecting the continent’s greater exposure to higher energy prices. So the STOXX 600 (-0.82%) fell back, alongside declines for the DAX (-1.15%), the CAC 40 (-1.12%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.55%). That followed mounting speculation that the ECB would still need to hike rates this year if the oil shock were more prolonged, with the amount of hikes priced by December up +7.2bps on the day to 45bps. So sovereign bonds also lost ground across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.1bps), OATs (+3.4bps) and BTPs (+4.4bps) all rising.

Here in the UK, 10yr gilts (+7.1bps) underperformed as question marks around Keir Starmer’s position as PM continued to swirl. The latest issues follow last week’s revelation that Peter Mandelson was appointed as US ambassador despite failing security vetting. That’s set to remain in the headlines today as well, because we’ll hear from Oliver Robbins, who was the most senior civil servant in the Foreign Office, who’s appearing before the Foreign Affairs Committee of MPs at 9am London time. Robbins was sacked for not informing Starmer that Mandelson hadn’t passed the vetting, so his version of events will be in focus today.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but Canada’s inflation print was softer than expected, with headline CPI only up to +2.4% in March (vs. +2.6% expected). Moreover, the two core inflation measures tracked by the Bank of Canada were either in line or slightly beneath consensus. So that eased concern about imminent rate hikes, and Canada’s 10yr government bond yield fell -1.0bps on the day, outperforming its counterparts in the US and Europe.

Looking at the day ahead, one of the main highlights will be the US Senate Banking Committee, which is holding a nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh to become Chair of the Federal Reserve. Other central banks speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Nagel and Kocher. And data releases include US retail sales for March, the German ZEW survey for April and UK unemployment for February.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 08:31

Europe's EV Sales Jump 51% As Iran War Sends Gasoline Prices Soaring

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

Registrations of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe’s key automotive markets surged by 51% in March as the Iran war pushed gasoline prices to multi-year highs, data published by research firm New Automotive and trade association E-Mobility Europe showed on Monday.

A Tesla charging on a street in Amsterdam

More than 224,000 new electric passenger cars were registered in March alone across 15 key EU + EFTA markets, the analysis found. These sales accounted for as much as 22% of all new passenger car sales across the key European markets.

In another sign that expensive gasoline is pushing drivers to EVs, European Union member states registered more than 500,000 new electric cars in the first quarter of 2026, a surge of 33.5% compared to the same period last year, the data showed.

New BEV registrations accelerated across every major EU market in the first quarter of 2026. Europe’s five largest countries — Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland — all recorded BEV growth above 40% year-to-date.

Europe’s biggest car market, Germany, saw a rebound in EV sales after the introduction of new incentives, with around one in four cars registered in March fully electric – a 42% year-to-date jump, according to the data.

Italy’s BEV registrations soared by 65% year-to-date, boosting the EV market share to 8.6% in March from about 5% as of the end of 2025.

France continued to lead among large markets with a 28% BEV share in March, underpinned by its social leasing scheme, and nearly 50% year-to-date growth.

Energy security was the catalyst for change in driver choice in recent weeks, analysts at New Automotive and E-Mobility Europe say.

“At a time when energy security has moved to the top of the political agenda, the EV transition is delivering real and measurable resilience,” commented Ben Nelmes, CEO of New Automotive.

“The pace of change we’re now seeing across major European markets — including countries like Italy and Poland that were slower to start — suggests the transition has entered a new phase.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 07:20