Individual Economists

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Tourists Are Staying Away from the U.S. in Droves: With the World Cup approaching and the country’s 250th anniversary also on tap this summer, 2026 was supposed to be a banner year for tourism in the U.S. But that’s not how things are shaping up. (Der Spiegel)

The Continuum of Truthiness? Jefferies’ reported prices on secondary sales of private equity stakes have historically been a price lower than the General Partners’ own marks. Secondary PE pricing doesn’t jibe with accounting rules (The Alt View) see also Investor Advocates Ask FASB to Reconsider Guidance on Secondaries: Secondary funds’ returns are “artificially inflated” by the practice, say investor advocates asking FASB to reconsider its guidance. (Institutional Investor) see also The Vanishing: How BDCs Disappear Bad Loans: In a recent interview defending private credit, Blackstone’s head of Private Wealth suggested separating the signal from the noise. Dubitsky does exactly that. A case study in gaming loan reporting via Blackstone’s BCRED (Rod’s Substack)

Revisiting Valeant: HBO’s Industry prompts a fresh look back at the Valeant Pharmaceuticals saga and what it still teaches about financial engineering gone wrong. The $90 billion pharma meltdown that changed nothing.  (Drugstore Cowboy)

This Isn’t Trading. It’s Theft from Your Retirement: Adam Kinzinger on the 15-minute gap that shows congressional stock trading is theft from everyone else’s retirement savings. Someone keeps making perfectly-timed bets right before the President speaks. The victims are your pension, your 401(k), and the country I took an oath to defend. (Adam Kinzinger)

Car Owners Are Revolting Over Tesla’s Self-Driving Promises: A decade of pre-sold FSD finally meets a class of buyers who kept the receipts. An international backlash is growing over outdated Tesla hardware. (Wall Street Journal)

How the Tech World Turned Evil: Once upon a time, they were counterculture idealists bringing power to the people. Today they’re greedy monopolists who’d sooner destroy our democracy than be reined in by government in any way—and they have to be stopped. Timothy Noah on how Musk, Bezos, and Thiel came to define a darker, more political Silicon Valley. (New Republic)

• A Flailing President Seeks a Hellhole Airline: Donald Trump wants to buy Spirit Airlines. Honestly, they deserve each other.  (The Bulwark)

The Horrors That Could Lie Ahead if Vaccines Vanish: ProPublica models what lapsing childhood vaccination coverage actually looks like on a U.S. mortality chart. The graphs do the arguing. (ProPublica) see also Where measles is spreading in the U.S.: Outbreaks fuel infections in states coast to coast: Measles infections continue to spread across the United States, largely fueled by outbreaks – large and small – in multiple states. Health officials in multiple states are concerned measles cases are going unreported because there are people who aren’t seeking diagnosis and treatment. Spring break travel may contribute to more people falling ill with measles in the next few weeks. It can take two to three weeks for symptoms to appear after a person is infected. (Health Beat)

“In America the Law Is King”: Judge J. Michael Luttig’s Neukom Center address on the rule of law, the courts, and the moment the country is in. “For as in absolute governments the King is law, so in free countries the law ought to be king; and there ought to be no other” Thomas Paine 1776 (Judge J. Michael Luttig)

The Warehouse, in Plain Sight: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is converting some of the largest buildings in the country into shadow detention centers, where secret police will warehouse people, holding them without charge, before deporting them. The DHS warehouse is a place of flows made into a place of containment. A concealed infrastructure created by capitalists, adapted by fascists. A disappearing machine. You don’t need to know the history of warehouses to oppose their transformation into concentration camps. There are ways to slow down that machine, jam it up, break it apart, until we end it. But it is useful to know who owns the buildings for sale, who zones the land, who controls levers of power. Writing the warehouse into the atlas. (Places Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with David Gardner, cofounder of The Motley Fool in 1993 (with his brother Tom Gardner). Originally launched as a print investment newsletter based on the idea that ordinary investors could beat Wall St., it gained traction when promoted on America Online (AOL) in 1994; it soon became a major presence on AOL and then Fool.com. His latest book is “Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth.”

 

China Edges Past U.S. in Global Approval Ratings

Source: Gallup

 

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The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Malaria Is Still Endemic In 80 Countries

Zero Hedge -

Malaria Is Still Endemic In 80 Countries

Significant progress has been made in the fight against malaria over the last two decades, according to a new report by the World Health Organization (WHO). In 2024, 80 countries (including the territory of French Guiana) remained endemic for the disease, down from 108 in 2000. The number of deaths have also declined since the turn of the century, with the WHO estimating that 610,000 people died from the disease in 2024, compared with 864,000 in 2000. 

Recent years have brought further milestones.

Cabo Verde and Egypt were certified as malaria-free in 2024, followed by Timor-Leste, Suriname and Georgia in 2025. To receive certification, countries must report zero indigenous cases for three consecutive years and formally apply to the WHO. Several other countries are in a similar position, with Saudi Arabia having recorded four consecutive years without indigenous cases, while Bhutan has reached three and Malaysia seven. However, none of these have yet submitted a certification application.

While Malaysia does not have malaria cases of the human Plasmodium species, it does report having P. knowlesi, a type of zoonotic parasite that circulates between monkeys and is transmitted to humans via mosquitoes. Turkey has submitted its application and is awaiting approval. 

But, as Statista's Anna Fleck reports, despite long-term gains, there is still a significant amount of work to be done.

 Malaria Is Still Endemic in 80 Countries | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

Malaria deaths rose by around 12,000 between 2023 and 2024, while estimated cases increased from 273 million to 282 million.

Ethiopia (+2.9 million cases), Madagascar (+1.9 million) and Yemen (+378,000) together accounted for 58 percent of the global increase. 

The WHO African Region continues to bear the heaviest burden, accounting for 95 percent of malaria deaths worldwide. Funding gaps and the growing threat of drug resistance remain key obstacles to further progress.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 20:25

The Final Battle For Your Mind

Zero Hedge -

The Final Battle For Your Mind

Authored by Casey Fleming via The Epoch Times,

Your phone buzzes. A notification lights up your screen—an article, a meme, a fun video, a flash sale, or the latest trend. It feels harmless, even entertaining. Just another moment in the endless rhythm of digital life. But beneath the surface lies something far more sinister. The seemingly trivial event is part of a quiet, persistent system designed to influence something deeply personal: your mind.

U.S. intelligence agencies have made the scope of this issue increasingly clear. Certain foreign-developed applications, particularly those linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), don’t simply collect user data in the limited way most people imagine. They gather extensive streams of information continuously—pulling from users, their contacts, and broader networks, sometimes extending to people who never installed the app. That data may be stored or accessed under legal frameworks that grant government authorities broad reach. What looks like ordinary app functionality can function as a large-scale intelligence collection system with strategic value.

This is no longer just about privacy. It intersects directly with national security.

The nature of conflict is evolving. Where adversaries once focused on stealing classified files or disrupting infrastructure, the modern battlefield includes the shaping of perception. Data is now a weapon of war—it is insight. It reveals behaviors, preferences, emotional triggers, and decision-making patterns. Aggregated at scale, it enables detailed behavioral models and psychological profiles that predict how individuals and groups will respond to specific messages or events.

When paired with artificial intelligence, this data becomes a precision weapon. Patterns are analyzed rapidly. Content is tailored, timed, framed, and repeated to maximize impact. Casual scrolling gradually shifts into structured influence, guiding users subtly rather than through overt coercion.

This dynamic is known as cognitive warfare. Unlike traditional conflict, it does not rely on physical force. It operates through control of information flows, attention, and repetition. The goal is not destruction but influence over how people interpret events, form beliefs, and make decisions.

Algorithms often prioritize emotionally charged or polarizing material to boost engagement. Over time, repeated exposure normalizes certain narratives while marginalizing others. Users believe they are thinking independently, yet their information environment has been carefully filtered, optimized, and weaponized.

A nation’s strength depends not only on its economy or military but on the clarity of thought, judgment, and cohesion of its people. When these qualities are undermined—through confusion, division, or eroded trust—the consequences extend far beyond the individual. Traditional cyberthreats target systems. Cognitive threats target minds. They aim to create doubt, amplify disagreements, and weaken institutional confidence, making unified action during crises far more difficult.

The implications are profound. A population conditioned toward rapid emotional reaction rather than critical reflection becomes more susceptible to manipulation. Trust in government, media, and fellow citizens erodes. Consensus fractures, decision-making slows, and internal divisions deepen. These conditions create exploitable vulnerabilities without the need for direct confrontation.

This approach delivers strategic advantage by avoiding the costs of open conflict while still shaping outcomes. By influencing the information environment, adversaries can steer public opinion, policy directions, and societal trends. Perception itself becomes a domain of competition (war).

At the core are three interconnected elements: large-scale data collection as a continuous intelligence resource, advanced algorithms as the delivery mechanism, and human cognition as the ultimate target.

In this context, protecting personal data is no longer merely a privacy matter—it is essential to preserving autonomy of thought. Cognitive security, the safeguarding of independent judgment, has become a national security imperative alongside traditional cybersecurity.

The situation is not hopeless. The effectiveness of these systems depends on access, scale, and awareness—factors that can still be contested.

Individuals can reduce exposure by reviewing app permissions, limiting unnecessary data sharing, and practicing digital hygiene. Awareness is equally vital: recognizing that much of what appears on screens is curated, not neutral. Critical thinking remains the strongest defense—evaluating sources, noticing patterns of repetition, and questioning emotionally manipulative content. In an environment engineered to capture attention, deliberate reflection becomes an act of resilience.

Policymakers must also act. Clear rules on data storage, jurisdictional control, and accountability for foreign-linked applications are necessary. Scrutiny of large-scale data flows tied to adversarial governments helps establish necessary boundaries.

The battlefield has shifted. Competition now unfolds in everyday digital experiences—what we read, watch, and share. The influence is often subtle, but its cumulative effect reshapes societies.

The central question remains: Can individuals maintain independent judgment when information is continuously filtered and optimized and weaponized for engagement?

Your phone buzzes again. Another notification appears. Recognizing that moment as part of a larger strategic system is the first step toward protecting your freedom.

The defense of independent thought will be one of the defining challenges of our time.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 19:50

The WHO Is Building A Supranational Vaccine Authorization Mechanism

Zero Hedge -

The WHO Is Building A Supranational Vaccine Authorization Mechanism

Authored by Yaffa Shir-Raz via Brownstone Institute

“I need to ask someone else to take responsibility for the second part of the approvals process, so that I won’t have a conflict of interest. I’m also working with Bill Gates and the World Health Organization on the vaccine itself.”

This admission of a conflict of interest was made by Prof. Lester Schulman, secretary of the Ministry of Health’s polio committee, in March 2023, during an internal discussion about approving the importation into Israel of a new polio vaccine. The vaccine was developed and promoted by the World Health Organization in collaboration with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and its approval pathway relied on a new emergency authorization mechanism the WHO has developed in recent years: the EUL (Emergency Use Listing).

Although the remark was framed as a technical aside, it was an unusual confession of a conflict of interest by the committee’s secretary. Its seriousness is compounded by the fact that it was made only after the committee had already voted by an overwhelming majority to initiate the process of bringing the vaccine to Israel, and after it had already worked vigorously to persuade the Pharmaceutical Division to cooperate.

The quotation does not appear in the official minutes of the meeting that were provided to us. It is heard on an audio recording of the session, one of several recordings passed on to us by a whistleblower. The minutes were provided only following a Freedom of Information request and subsequent litigation.

The episode is serious in its own right. But it goes far beyond a local episode of personal conflict of interest or an administrative failure within Israel’s health system. The materials point to something more consequential: the use of an international emergency authorization pathway to shape regulatory decisions inside a sovereign state, advanced through overlapping professional networks, without the organization assuming the legal responsibilities borne by national regulators. 

In the United States, recent political debates over withdrawal from the World Health Organization were widely framed as a clash between scientific consensus and institutional criticism. Yet the Israeli case, and the materials in our possession, point to a much larger picture. 

This was the first implementation of the EUL mechanism within a country with a functioning Western regulatory system. Israel served here as a regulatory test case: an attempt to determine whether it is possible, in practice, to shape an approval pathway inside a sovereign state without holding formal regulatory authority and without being subject to the judicial and parliamentary oversight that applies to a national regulator. In doing so, it exposes how the organization has been operating in recent years: no longer merely an advisory and coordinating body, but an institution that creates operating frameworks that, in practice, shape approval processes inside sovereign states.

The EUL: An Emergency Mechanism or a De Facto Regulatory Infrastructure?

The World Health Organization was established in 1948 as an intergovernmental body tasked with providing professional assistance and technical guidance, promoting research, collecting knowledge, and developing recommendations for its member states. Article 22 of the WHO Constitution leaves states the right to opt out of its regulations, a clear indication that the organization was not granted regulatory powers such as authorizing drugs and vaccines or supervising their manufacture. These areas remained the exclusive responsibility of states themselves, which also bear legal and public responsibility for the decisions of their national health authorities.

In recent years, the WHO has developed mechanisms that expand its influence beyond recommendations and, in effect, enable it to directly influence regulatory authorization processes within states. The central mechanism is the EUL, an independent WHO emergency procedure that is not part of national authorization systems.

According to the organization’s documents, the EUL is defined as a temporary, risk-based authorization for the use of unapproved medical products in emergency situations where no approved product is available, and on the basis of partial data on quality, safety, and efficacy. These documents emphasize that the EUL is not licensure, and that it does not replace national regulatory authorization.

But what is defined as a temporary bridge measure that does not replace national regulation becomes, in practice, an operating framework. Once EUL is activated, it maps out the timetable, the milestones, and the starting point of the discussion. This restructuring of the decision-making process also generates pressures that extend beyond the initial authorization stage. As Dr. David Bell, a former WHO medical officer, notes: “Once a product has been granted emergency authorization and widely deployed, there is strong institutional pressure to overlook its limitations and proceed toward full approval, as reversing course may carry significant professional and reputational risks.”

Instead of a regulator initiating an independent process based on its own data and judgment, it operates within a workflow whose structure has already been defined in the international arena.

The institutionalization of the EUL reflects a broader shift in regulatory practice. During Covid-19, emergency authorization became the operative pathway for deploying novel vaccines at population scale within Western regulatory systems. That experience established the practical legitimacy of approving and distributing vaccines on the basis of interim data under declared emergency conditions. A regulatory model tested within sovereign systems had become normalized.

The EUL translates this logic to the international level. It creates a structured emergency pathway through which products can advance prior to conventional Western licensure. Once activated, the pathway structures expectations, timelines, and decision points for states considering adoption.

Under the International Health Regulations (2005), a Public Health Emergency of International Concern is defined primarily in relation to international spread and coordinated response, without a quantified severity threshold. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, controversy arose over the WHO’s pandemic phase definitions, which emphasized geographic spread rather than clinical severity. Where emergency criteria are flexible, the declaration carries procedural consequences: it opens access to accelerated authorization mechanisms. Over time, this flexibility has lowered the practical threshold for invoking emergency-based authorization mechanisms. 

Rather than independently constructing a full evidentiary assessment from first principles, states deliberate within a predefined emergency framework. The activation of the pathway reorders the sequence of decision-making. Questions of timing, alignment, and external validation take precedence over the threshold question of whether the evidentiary basis would independently justify authorization under ordinary regulatory standards.

nOPV2: The First Implementation of the Mechanism

The nOPV2 polio vaccine discussed in Israel was the first product to receive EUL status from the WHO. The listing was granted on November 13, 2020, making the vaccine the first implementation of the new procedure. Beginning in March 2021, it was deployed in Nigeria and later in additional countries in Africa and Asia.

The vaccine is manufactured in Indonesia by a company called Bio Farma. Its development and clinical studies were funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which also committed $1.2 billion to “support efforts” to advance it, as part of the Polio Eradication Strategy 2022–2026.

On December 21, 2023, the vaccine also received WHO Prequalification (PQ) status. This procedure is not national licensure and is not equivalent to approval by a stringent Western regulator. It is a WHO assessment mechanism that enables UN agencies and countries to rely on it for procurement and use through international health mechanisms. Although PQ is not part of EUL, in practice it signals a shift from a temporary emergency framework to a broader and continuing distribution pathway that no longer depends on the declaration of a specific emergency.

The trajectory of nOPV2 illustrates more than the introduction of a new vaccine. It demonstrates the operationalization of an emergency-based authorization model beyond a single national regulator. A product listed under an international emergency mechanism progressed from provisional deployment to broader institutional endorsement, without passing through the conventional sequence of Western licensure. It is this pathway that was subsequently introduced into Israel’s regulatory deliberations.

How the International Pathway Was Embedded Inside the Ministry of Health

The discussions in the ERT committee make it possible to examine how the EUL pathway was integrated in practice into decision-making inside Israel’s Ministry of Health.

The ERT (Emergency Response Team) committee at Israel’s Ministry of Health was established in March 2022 as an advisory committee to manage the response to a polio outbreak detected in sewage testing in Israel. The committee’s mandate included receiving ongoing updates, formulating operational recommendations, adapting vaccination policy, and managing public information efforts. The committee is chaired by Prof. Manfred Green, head of the International Public Health Leadership Program at the University of Haifa’s School of Public Health, and its secretary is Prof. Lester Schulman, an epidemiologist who headed the Central Environmental Virology Laboratory at Sheba Medical Center (Tel Hashomer).

In its early deliberations, the committee dealt with poliovirus type 3, which, according to its documents, originated from the live-attenuated vaccine. Even in these discussions, there is already a clear sensitivity to the WHO’s position. The committee chair explicitly states that if Israel does not launch a vaccination campaign, it may be perceived by the WHO as a “rogue” state. This perception does not need to be imposed externally. It emerges within a shared professional environment in which deviation is experienced not merely as a policy disagreement, but as a departure from the norms of the group. These dynamics are consistent with observations from within international health institutions.

As Dr. David Bell, a former WHO medical officer, notes: “Delegates in international health forums are often not acting primarily as national representatives. They are part of a large professional network, trained in similar institutions, meeting regularly, and sharing a common worldview. These networks are supported by major private funders and institutional partners, which further reinforces alignment across countries. 

Within these networks, dissenting positions are often perceived as unscientific or backward, creating strong pressure to align. Countries may be reluctant to deviate for fear of appearing outside the accepted consensus.”

Bell further characterizes this process as a form of soft power operating through institutional culture rather than formal authority: “This is how soft power operates: shared incentives, professional culture, and support from major funding bodies allow preferred approaches to spread across systems, often without the need for formal coercion.”

Accordingly, the team recommended a “Two Drops” campaign using the existing live-attenuated vaccine (OPV3). The campaign began in April 2022 and was halted two months later. Although uptake among the primary target population was minimal, the Ministry presented the campaign as a success and announced the elimination of the strain from sewage surveillance. 

Shortly thereafter, the Ministry of Health announced that immediately upon eliminating type 3, type 2 was detected in sewage, which also derives from a live-attenuated vaccine. Although to date no paralysis cases from this strain have been found in Israel, the ERT committee began, already in mid-2022, to consider the option of using the new nOPV2 vaccine. At first it arose as a general reference, but it soon became the central axis of the discussion.

At this stage, the discussion already linked epidemiological assessment to procedural consequences. Even in the absence of clinical cases, escalation was considered in relation to the regulatory options it would make available.

From late summer 2022, the nOPV2 approval pathway was presented to committee members in several meetings, using presentations and background materials provided by the WHO. The minutes we received indicate that the discussion was based on WHO presentations and background materials. The minutes contain no record of a full manufacturer dossier, independent regulatory data, or an opinion from any Western regulatory authority.

On December 1, 2022 (Minutes ERT 21), the ERT committee voted by an overwhelming majority to initiate the process of bringing the new vaccine to Israel. According to the minutes, 14 of 15 committee members voted in favor of the recommendation, as did all six Ministry of Health representatives who participated in the vote. At that point, the principled decision had been made. The discussion shifted from whether to adopt the pathway to how to implement it. 

Immediately following the vote, the regulatory question shifted to implementation and to the procedural steps required to activate the pathway. In a committee discussion held on February 28, 2023, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis suggested that a formal emergency declaration might be necessary in order to enable the relevant authorization track, remarking that “perhaps if there are two clinical cases we will be able to persuade the minister to declare an emergency.” The exchange indicates that the declaration of emergency was discussed in direct connection with the procedural track it would enable.

Conflicts of Interest on the Committee: Advisers to the WHO Leading the Recommendation to Bring the Vaccine to Israel

During the months in which the committee’s secretary, Prof. Schulman, presented the pathway for bringing nOPV2 to Israel, the committee members were not presented with information about his conflicts of interest with the WHO and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. In practice, during that period, Schulman served as a technical consultant on the vaccine through McKing Consulting Corporation, a professional contractor working on projects of the WHO and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), which is centrally supported by the Gates Foundation.

He also received a support grant from the WHO, likewise for consulting related to nOPV2. Moreover, he received travel funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to participate in dedicated nOPV2 working meetings in London in February 2023; that is, precisely during the period relevant to the ERT committee’s deliberations on the vaccine. Added to this is co-authorship on an international scientific publication from June 2023 that was conducted with the support of the WHO, GPEI, and the manufacturer Bio Farma.

In other words, this was not a general affiliation or a distant professional past. It was a direct, built-in conflict of interest related to the specific vaccine under discussion and to its unusual approval pathway under EUL. Schulman declared these ties in official scientific publications, but they were not brought to the committee’s attention in real time, even as he was the one presenting the approval pathway and leading the professional discussion. When the Ministry of Health was asked to address the issue, both in the Freedom of Information process and in a formal request to the spokesperson, it responded categorically that no conflicts of interest existed in the committee. This response contradicts Schulman’s own public declarations.

Only about three months after the vote, during a further discussion held on February 28, 2023, Schulman asked that “someone replace me” in the continuation of the approvals process, so that he “won’t have a conflict of interest,” as though it were a minor technical matter rather than a substantive failure, and without addressing the fact that the principled decision had already been made on the basis of materials and a regulatory framework that he himself had helped advance internationally. Moreover, after this admission, Schulman’s conflicts of interest were not documented in the meeting minutes that were provided to us following the FOI litigation.

Schulman was not the only senior committee member with a conflict of interest involving the WHO. The committee chair, Prof. Manfred Green, recently acknowledged in a Knesset Health Committee discussion that his partner, Prof. Dorit Nitzan-Kluski, also serves on the polio committee. Indeed, Prof. Nitzan-Kaluski is listed as a member already in the original appointment letter, in March 2022. Yet only a month before that appointment, in February 2022, she formally completed her senior role as the WHO Regional Emergencies Director for Europe. Moreover, a few weeks later, with the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, she returned to intensive professional activity on behalf of the WHO as an Incident Manager in Ukraine, a role she performed in parallel with her membership in the committee.

This becomes all the more problematic when the committee chair presents the WHO’s position to members as an “ultimatum” that must be adopted, without full disclosure that his partner, serving alongside him, is a senior operational figure within that same organization.

This is not merely a matter of personal ethics. The committee secretary, who drafted, promoted, and led the presentation of the vaccine and the EUL pathway to Israel, was simultaneously active internationally in advancing them, while the committee chair adopted the same framework. The result was that Israel’s decision-making unfolded within the same professional network that promoted the vaccine and its approval pathway in the international arena. 

Under such circumstances, it is difficult to speak of independent national regulatory judgment when the same actors are involved in promoting the pathway both globally and within the Israeli deliberations.

“Who Will Blink First”

In stark contrast to the confidence with which the vaccine’s safety and manufacturing integrity were presented in the ERT committee, the minutes show that the Pharmaceutical Division, Israel’s competent regulatory authority for authorizing medicines and vaccines, expressed reservations, and even opposition, at an early stage.

This opposition was mentioned several times during the discussions, including the reasons raised by division staff: the absence of licensure by any Western country, the fact that the vaccine is manufactured in Indonesia, a country to which Israel’s Ministry of Health has no direct regulatory access, meaning it cannot independently examine manufacturing conditions at the plant, and reliance on an emergency mechanism that had not yet been completed.

In one discussion, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis describes the Pharmaceutical Division’s position unambiguously: “Our pharmacy division refuses at this stage to take a vaccine or to approve a vaccine coming from Indonesia with no Western regulatory process at all. That’s a very, very big obstacle…Right now our pharmacy division is saying: ‘We will not approve such a thing. It doesn’t look to us like it meets any standards that we can approve.’

Yet these reservations were not presented as a regulatory red line, but as a problem to be “solved” in order to continue advancing within the EUL pathway. The regulator’s opposition did not stop the process. It was framed as an operational obstacle.

This produced a reversal of roles: an advisory committee effectively shaped the regulatory pathway, while the body legally authorized to approve or reject vaccines was expected to adapt to a framework that had already been set, and at times to justify its own resistance.

Against this backdrop, the discussion focused on finding an external regulator that would provide legitimacy, first and foremost the UK regulator. The minutes repeatedly refer to Britain as the country that might approve the vaccine before Israel. For example, in one discussion (ERT 17), Prof. Ian Miskin, one of the committee members, states explicitly that “we probably shouldn’t be the first in the West to use nOPV2, ” and that while the United States likely would not use the vaccine, “the UK might.” In the February 28, 2023 discussion, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis framed the situation even more explicitly: “Maybe we’ll challenge them – every country that hears ‘Indonesia’ doesn’t want to be the first…so everyone is waiting to see who will blink first.”

This dynamic captures the position local decision-makers found themselves in within this mechanism. Although they did not have the basic data necessary for a proper regulatory authorization of a vaccine, they did not challenge the pathway itself. Instead, they searched for a Western country to provide the first stamp of approval. The international framework had already been accepted as the starting point. The remaining question was only which country would supply the legitimacy that would allow others to follow. In such a setting, the scope of criticism narrows. The focal point is no longer vaccine safety or manufacturing quality, but joining a pathway already defined, and the fear is not scientific error but deviating from the line.

This dynamic cannot be explained solely by institutional caution. Once the EUL framework was accepted as the operative reference point, deliberation shifted from independent evidentiary assessment to questions of timing and alignment. The regulatory threshold itself was no longer the central issue. What mattered was whether, and by whom, the pathway would first be validated in the West. The architecture of decision-making had already been set.

“We Got Nothing, Nothing, Nothing Except WHO Presentations”

About two months after the ERT committee had already voted and made a principled decision to advance the introduction of nOPV2 to Israel under the EUL mechanism, and after months of discussions in which the gap between the pathway mapped out in the committee and the regulator’s position only widened, Dr. Alroy-Preis asked to invite Dr. Ofra Axelrod, head of the Pharmaceutical Division, to explain her opposition.

In the subsequent discussion, when Dr. Axelrod did come to the committee and systematically presented the data and information available to the Pharmaceutical Division, it became clear that the gap was far larger than could be inferred from earlier discussions. What she laid out showed that this was not merely a discrete regulatory disagreement or a “difficulty” that could be bridged, but an absence of the basic regulatory data required to evaluate vaccine safety, manufacturing integrity, and the regulatory pathway itself.

At the outset, Axelrod clarified what constituted the division’s evidentiary base: “We, of course, got nothing, nothing, nothing except WHO presentations. On the basis of that, to approve something, that won’t pass.” In effect, she revealed that these presentations were the only materials presented to the committee and had served as the basis for the vote to begin the approval process for importing the vaccine into Israel.

Contrary to the impression created earlier, in which the vaccine was presented as being on an advanced pathway, Axelrod described a vaccine that was “still in a clinical trial…a vaccine at a very, very early stage…it doesn’t even have prequalification, which is really the most basic approval there is.” She also addressed the vaccine’s status under EUL and noted: “There was an initial recommendation in 2020, and since then no final decision has been made…”

Even the hope that a Western country would soon authorize the vaccine proved, according to her, unfounded. “Right now, because of the gaps and lack of information, the British do not intend to approve use of this vaccine in the UK. Even if it becomes truly essential, and maybe even a temporary approval, it’s very challenging. After that conversation we asked the British for materials. There was nothing; they did not pass anything on. In early February we approached the British again, and the answer was very evasive. The answer was: ‘We’ll try to create a direct connection for you with the company.’ Since then we haven’t heard anything, not from the British and not from the company. “

As for manufacturing itself, Axelrod described a plant not recognized by Western regulatory authorities, and a picture of inadequate regulatory oversight. “The plant is not recognized, it manufactures vaccines for the developing world, for WHO countries…the manufacturing company avoided direct contact with the MHRA, the UK regulator. They did not give them a dossier or any information they received directly from the company…eventually, the British managed to get the company’s agreement to conduct a GMP inspection. The British visited the company and found gaps. They did not specify what they were. And the company has not undergone any GMP inspection by an authority we recognize…”

Beyond the regulatory gaps, Axelrod’s comments also illuminate the lack of transparency in the committee’s work. She told the committee that a Freedom of Information request had already been filed with the Ministry concerning the vaccine discussions. “I have to share with you that we already received an FOI request about this vaccine. We haven’t approved anything yet, and already people are asking us: why and how and who and what.” The committee’s minutes were not published to the public in real time. They were provided only following an FOI request and prolonged litigation. The fact that the information was exposed only in this way makes clear that the discussion was not accompanied by proactive transparency from the Ministry.

A Test Case for a New Model

As serious as the Israeli case is, both in the conflicts of interest it exposes and in the attempt to promote authorization without basic regulatory data before the national regulator, the larger significance lies elsewhere. Israel was the first Western arena in which the EUL mechanism was put into practice. This is not merely a local event. It serves as a test case for a new model – a practical examination of the WHO’s ability to shape approval processes in a Western country without bearing direct regulatory responsibility.

Beyond the damage to sovereignty, the danger in this model is deeper. The WHO does not bear legal responsibility within states and is not subject to judicial or parliamentary oversight there. In a national regulatory system, a decision to authorize a vaccine is subject to a clear administrative law framework: documents can be demanded under freedom of information statutes, petitions can be filed in court, reasoning can be compelled, and decisions can be reviewed for reasonableness.

States that accept the EUL mechanism retain full legal and political responsibility for the decision, while key elements of its framework are shaped outside their systems. The national regulator will be required to defend in court a decision whose framework it did not set; the government will bear the public cost; and citizens will discover that the body that shaped the pathway is not subject to their courts and owes them no legal accountability.

A further concern is the lack of transparency and the state’s inability to independently assess the data presented to it. In recent years, the research literature has pointed to transparency gaps in the WHO’s decision-making mechanisms, especially in emergencies. Studies published, among others, in BMJ Global Health (2020), the Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health (2025), and Public Health Ethics described partial publication of minutes, difficulty reconstructing decision rationales, and the scope of influence not matched by parallel oversight mechanisms. 

The Israeli case shows how such a gap translates at the national level: discussions not proactively published, near-exclusive reliance on materials originating from the organization itself, and progress along a regulatory pathway before the full data required for independent review had been provided.

In this case, the move was halted in Israel, but only after a principled decision had already been made and the pathway had already been mapped out, and only thanks to regulatory insistence on demanding data and holding to threshold standards, and civic insistence on exposing information that was not published.

Against this background, decisions by countries such as the United States to distance themselves from the World Health Organization can be understood in the context of broader debates over regulatory authority and accountability in global health governance. The Israeli case raises a more general question: to what extent can regulatory independence be maintained when key elements of the decision-making framework are shaped through external processes that precede national review? 

The case exposes a widening gap between formal national authority and the external frameworks that increasingly determine regulatory outcomes in advance.

The Ministry of Health was asked to respond to these findings but chose not to comment.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 18:40

Should Democrats Fear A Supreme Court October Surprise That Could Save The Senate For The GOP?

Zero Hedge -

Should Democrats Fear A Supreme Court October Surprise That Could Save The Senate For The GOP?

There has been a lot of speculation about potential Supreme Court vacancies this year, mostly centered on Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas. Even President Donald Trump seems anxious about the possibility. In a recent interview with Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo, Trump revealed that he has a shortlist of potential Supreme Court nominees ready in the event of a vacancy and signaled he’s prepared to fill multiple seats if the opportunity arises. 

"In theory, it's two - you just read the statistics - it could be two, could be three, could be one," Trump said. "I don't know. I'm prepared to do it. But when you mention Alito, he is a great justice."

However, for now, the door appears closed. Sources close to both Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas told CBS News that neither man plans to retire in 2026, effectively throwing cold water on the speculation that has been building for months within Republican circles.

But Senate Republicans aren't exactly ready to write it off yet. They're treating the possibility of a fall vacancy as hot enough to plan around, even while keeping their mouths carefully shut in public.

The calculus is straightforward. Republicans currently hold a 53-seat Senate majority, but party strategists privately acknowledge that margin is vulnerable. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently shifted four Senate races — Ohio, North Carolina, Nebraska, and Georgia — toward Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump's job approval has slipped into the low 30s. Democrats have a credible path to flipping the upper chamber if they can make inroads in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, or Iowa.

What Senate Republicans are hoping for is a potential October surprise. 

GOP strategist and former Senate aide Brian Darling argues that a vacancy and confirmation battle hitting in October would "have the whole agenda change," pulling Senate races away from economic grievances and back toward the Court. It would "shift" the focus of contested races and "may motivate MAGA voters to get reengaged and show up to vote." As Darling put it, "An October surprise is when some issue comes up that people aren't expecting that completely changes the debate," adding that such a development "clearly is something that would be welcomed by the Trump administration going into the midterms."

It sounds like a risky strategy that could backfire, as such events could easily motivate both sides. However, Republicans have a recent data point to anchor that theory.

In 2018, Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation fight landed so close to Election Day that it likely helped Republicans flip a few Senate seats despite losing 42 House seats and majority control of the lower chamber. The Senate outcome diverged sharply from the national wave, and vulnerable Democrats in red-leaning states paid the price. Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana both held polling leads heading into the Kavanaugh vote. Both lost. McCaskill later acknowledged on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" that, before the confirmation battle, there had been “a double-digit difference in enthusiasm” favoring Democrats, but that Supreme Court fight changed the dynamics completely.

The 2016 Scalia precedent is also part of the institutional memory here. After Scalia died in February of that year, then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell held the seat open through the presidential election, effectively turning the race into a referendum on the Court's direction. Justice Neil Gorsuch was confirmed in April 2017. Republicans believe that the gambit helped deliver the White House.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) believes a Supreme Court vacancy “would be a galvanizing issue for Republicans,” but was careful to note that justices make their own decisions. "I don't give Supreme Court justices advice," Cornyn said, praising Alito's record by saying simply, "Alito's been great."

There certainly is reason for Republicans to be careful. Barack Obama infamously failed to convince Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg to retire while he was president. She stubbornly stayed on the court, despite her advanced age and poor health, and passed in 2020, giving a third Court pick.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) was equally careful about nudging Alito, 76, or Thomas, 77, about retiring. He said he has "seen the articles" speculating about Alito’s retirement and acknowledged that "the rumor started somewhere." On whether either justice might step down, Kennedy said it "depends on their health," then added, "I don't know where this rumor came from; it may well be true."

Senate Majority Leader John Thune pointed to Republicans' demonstrated ability to confirm quickly, referencing both 2018 and the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett in 2020 — completed less than two months after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, just before a presidential election.

"It seems like it could happen,” one senior Republican aide said. “We'll get somebody confirmed. The fight will be interesting."

The question isn't whether Republicans want a Supreme Court vacancy before November — it's whether they'll get one. And if they do, history suggests the political fallout could be severe for Democrats defending seats in territory that was never really theirs to begin with.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 18:05

'Spies Inside The Holy See': Report Reveals US Espionage Campaign Targeting Pope Leo

Zero Hedge -

'Spies Inside The Holy See': Report Reveals US Espionage Campaign Targeting Pope Leo

Via The Cradle

The administration of US President Donald Trump has been "spying" on Pope Leo XIV as part of a years-long intelligence campaign by Washington against the Vatican, US investigative journalist Ken Klippenstein said in a report released Friday. 

Klippenstein – an independent, Washington-based investigative journalist who formerly wrote for The Intercept – cited sources as saying that Trump's recent comments on the new Pope were taken by the intelligence community as "a directive to prioritize spying on the Vatican."

via Reuters

Trump had said earlier this month that Pope Leo was "terrible on foreign policy" and "weak on crime." According to Klippenstein’s sources, Washington has "for years" been spying on the Vatican. 

"The CIA has human spies working inside the Holy See bureaucracy. The NSA and CIA seek to intercept telecommunications, emails, and texts. The FBI investigates crimes committed against and by the Vatican. The State Department closely follows the ins and outs of Papal diplomacy and politics. All of these agencies liaise with the Vatican’s own foreign policy, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies," the report stated. 

Klippenstein pointed to a "longstanding – and quietly extensive – relationship between the US national security apparatus and the Vatican" involving diplomatic, law enforcement, and cybersecurity cooperation.

Much of it is "genuine" but also serves as a "convenient cover for collecting intelligence."

"The first Trump administration sought to beef up its coordination with Italian intelligence agencies and Vatican officials on things like cybersecurity, white collar crime, human trafficking, art theft, and other issues. One particular project was to help the Vatican actively thwart cyber intrusions into its networks. The FBI also regularly provides threat intelligence to the Pope during his travels," Klippenstein cited FBI documents as saying. 

"The State Department, meanwhile, maintains a daily Vatican-centric news digest circulated to diplomats worldwide… The department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research has analysts dedicated to producing classified assessments on Vatican affairs," he added, referring to other documents he obtained.

"Even the US military has a Vatican-specific language code on its books as a distinct linguistic capability. ‘QLE’ designates Ecclesiastical Latin – the Vatican’s preferred liturgical register – as distinct from classical Latin."

The report follows recent tensions between Trump and the Holy See. Trump said earlier this month:

"Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear weapon. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the US … And I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the US."

Prior to that, the pope had condemned what he called the “delusion of omnipotence,” fueling the US-Israeli war against Iran. 

“Enough of the idolatry of self and money! Enough of the display of power! Enough of war!” he said. The pope also recently said that a “handful of tyrants” were ruling the world, before later clarifying that his comments were not meant as a jab at Trump and were written before the US president criticized him. 

Additionally, the papacy referred to Trump’s threat to wipe out the Iranian civilization as unacceptable.

Pope Leo’s remarks came weeks after dozens of US lawmakers demanded a probe due to hundreds of complaints from service members saying that military commanders portrayed the war on Iran as “divinely ordained” and linked to biblical prophecy, including claims that Trump had been “anointed by Jesus.”

Well over 2,000 people have been killed by the US-Israeli war on Iran, and the country’s infrastructure has been ravaged. 

Only about one-third of the infrastructure destroyed in Iran’s capital during the US-Israeli war was military-linked, Bloomberg revealed on 21 April in an analysis of the damage caused by Washington and Tel Aviv.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 17:30

18 Shocking Facts That Prove The US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than Most People Realize

Zero Hedge -

18 Shocking Facts That Prove The US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than Most People Realize

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The economy has been the number one issue for U.S. voters for several years in a row, and it isn’t because things are good.

Consumer confidence is at an all-time low, inflation is starting to accelerate once again, mass layoffs are being conducted all over the nation, and delinquencies and foreclosures are soaring. Nobody can dispute any of the facts that I am about to share with you. We have an enormous economic mess on our hands, and now the crisis in the Middle East threatens to plunge the entire global economic system into chaos in the months ahead. In other words, conditions are not good now and the outlook for the future is not promising at all.

The following are 18 shocking facts that prove that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than most people realize…

#1 Consumer confidence in the United States has fallen to an all-time record low

Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy prices and the broader impact of the Iran war, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

The university’s headline index of consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6, down 10.7% from the March survey to its lowest on record. Current conditions and expectations indexes also saw double-digit monthly declines.

#2 Student loan delinquencies have exploded to a level that we have never seen before

Student loan delinquency has climbed to roughly 25 percent of borrowers with payments due during the first year of the current Trump administration, according to new analysis.

Researchers from The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers said the sharp rise in missed payments, nearly triple the pre-coronavirus pandemic rate, has pushed millions into default risk and lowered credit scores, warning of broader financial fallout for households and colleges facing higher nonpayment rates.

#3 The monthly cost of owning a home has risen to absurd heights

All in, the median monthly housing payment for an owner — including mortgage principal and interest, taxes, homeowners insurance, and estimated maintenance expenses — has ballooned to more than $2,800, a staggering 72% jump from $1,635 six years earlier.

#4 Foreclosure filings were way up in 2025, and so far in 2026 we are 26 percent above last year’s pace…

A fresh wave of foreclosures is sweeping across the United States, with more than 118,000 homes caught up in the crisis in just the first three months of 2026.

It is a grim omen – with echoes of the run up to the 2008 Great Recession – that financial pressure is mounting for thousands of families.

New Attom data shows 118,727 properties were hit with a foreclosure filing in the first quarter – up 26 percent on the same period last year.

#5 The number of Americans that cannot pay their credit card bills in full each month has reached another record high

More than 111 million people could not pay off their monthly credit-card bills in full at the end of last year, marking a new record, according to new estimates from consumer advocates. That’s roughly 2 million more people unable to pay in full compared to the end of 2024, they noted.

These card holders now owe banks more than $1 trillion — and most are inching closer to maxing out their credit lines, according to researchers at the Century Foundation, a progressive think tank, and Protect Borrowers, a nonprofit group that advocates for borrowers.

#6 As the cost of living soars, people are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at a record rate in a desperate attempt to make ends meet…

More Americans are digging into their retirement savings because of financial emergencies.

Last year, a record 6% of workers in 401(k) plans administered by Vanguard Group took a hardship withdrawal. That is up from 4.8% in 2024 and a prepandemic average of about 2%, according to Vanguard.

#7 Food prices continue to escalate, and the price of coffee has more than doubled since 2019…

A 16-item basket of groceries made up of staples like eggs, bread, and meat — no truffle cheese in our cart — rang in nearly 43% higher in March compared to the same month in 2019.

A few key categories are behind the rise: Coffee prices have more than doubled since the pandemic, while beef prices have soared more recently.

#8 For the first time ever, the price of a pound of ground beef is now higher than the federal minimum wage in many parts of the country…

The cost of a pound of ground beef has hit a major threshold. Depending on where you shop, the grocery staple likely costs more than the federal minimum wage.

Money analyzed ground beef prices at seven of the most popular grocery chains across the U.S., finding that 1 pound of the typical 20% fat ground beef costs between $6.49 and $8.96. Organic, grass-fed and leaner varieties tend to cost much more.

On the other hand, the federal minimum wage sits at $7.25 per hour.

#9 The Federal Reserve is telling us that 42.5 percent of recent college graduates were underemployed at the end of 2025…

Historically, college graduates have tended to find jobs faster and experience lower unemployment than workers without a degree. But recent data suggests it’s now harder to find a job that fits your skill set once you graduate.

According to the Federal Reserve of New York, 42.5% of recent college graduates (aged 22 to 27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher) are underemployed as of December 2025 — the highest rate since October 2020. Underemployment refers to working in a role that underutilizes your skills, usually at a lower wage or in a part-time position.

#10 We continue to see retailers close locations all over the nation at a staggering rate. For example, Grocery Outlet has announced that they will be permanently closing 36 stores

Grocery Outlet – the California-based retailer famous for selling products at steep discounts – says it will close 36 stores nationwide as part of a sweeping restructuring plan designed to improve profitability.

The company revealed the move while reporting its latest financial results, saying it had conducted a ‘strategic, financial and operational analysis’ of its entire store network.

#11 Not to be outdone, Papa John’s has announced that they will be closing approximately 300 restaurants

Pizza chain Papa John’s said it plans to close hundreds of underperforming restaurants in North America by the end of next year.

“We have identified approximately 300 underperforming restaurants across North America that are not meeting brand expectations or lack a clear path to sustainable financial improvement, as well as locations where we can effectively transfer sales to a nearby restaurant,” Papa John’s Chief Financial Officer Ravi Thanawala said last week during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

#12 One of our “too big to fail” banks has decided that now is the time to cut about 2,500 jobs

Morgan Stanley is slashing about 3% of its global workforce — roughly 2,500 jobs — across its key divisions, as the Wall Street giant realigns priorities amid a banner year for profits, sources familiar with the matter have told The Post.

The cuts hit the Ted Pick-led lender’s investment banking, trading, and wealth management units, the people close to the situation said.

#13 EBay will be conducting yet another round of layoffs. This time around approximately 800 workers will get the axe…

EBay said Thursday it is cutting about 800 roles, or 6% of its workforce, in the latest round of layoffs at the e-commerce company.

“We are taking steps to reinvest across our business and align our structure with our strategic priorities, which will affect certain roles across our workforce,” an eBay spokesperson said in a statement. “We are grateful for the contributions of the employees impacted and are committed to supporting them with care and respect.”

#14 At one time Wendy’s was doing great, but in 2026 it will be permanently shuttering hundreds of locations

Fast-food chain Wendy’s will shutter 5% to 6% of its stores nationwide in the first half of 2026 as part of an ongoing downsizing plan.

Interim CEO Ken Cook first told investors in a Nov. 7 quarterly earnings call that the company would be closing a “mid single-digit percentage” of its nearly 6,000 locations nationwide.

#15 Meta, the parent company of Facebook, apparently intends to let nearly 8,000 employees go in the very near future…

Meta is preparing to cut thousands of jobs as early as next month, with deeper layoffs expected later this year, according to a report.

The tech giant intends to slash roughly 10% of its global workforce — or nearly 8,000 employees — in an initial round of cuts on May 20, sources told Reuters.

The company is also planning additional layoffs in the second half of the year, though details including timing and scope remain unclear, the outlet reported.

#16 From coast to coast, thousands of supply chain workers have been told to hit the bricks in recent weeks…

A wave of layoffs across U.S. supply chains — from EV battery plants and auto parts factories to warehouses and rail terminals — has affected nearly 4,000 workers in recent weeks, according to company announcements and WARN filings across multiple states.

Recent WARN filings and company announcements show job cuts across at least a dozen companies in states including California, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alabama.

The largest layoffs in the recent wave are coming from the automotive and industrial supply chain. SK Battery America said it laid off 958 workers — about 37% of its workforce — at its electric vehicle battery plant in Commerce, Georgia, citing shifting EV demand as automakers reassess production plans.

#17 According to Newsweek, the following list of companies have all announced layoffs during the month of April…

  • Blue Shield of California
  • Zenith Logistics
  • Perdue Foods
  • ERN Services
  • Boston Electrometallurgical Corporation
  • First Brands Group
  • GEODIS
  • MicroVision
  • IPIC Theaters
  • Goulet Trucking
  • CJ Logistics
  • L3Harris
  • Supernal
  • Heritage Bank of Commerce
  • Angel City Brewery
  • VCA Bay Area Veterinary Specialists
  • Monroe Operations
  • Meteor Creative
  • Viskon-Aire Corporation
  • C3.ai
  • Safari West
  • Main Street Sports Group Cincinnati
  • Raley’s
  • Koppers
  • Wells Fargo
  • Lucid Group
  • Hornblower Cruises and Events
  • Charles River Laboratories
  • Wescom Financial
  • Bluum USA
  • CHS Northwest
  • Catalent
  • Liberty Dental Plan
  • GXO Logistics

#18 The total unfunded obligations of the U.S. government have now reached a staggering total of 130.12 trillion dollars

On March 17, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury quietly released the federal government’s fiscal year 2025 financial report. Buried in its tables is a number that should dominate our national conversation – but doesn’t: Total federal obligations now stand at $130.12 trillion.

That figure is not a rounding error or a political talking point. It is derived from the government’s own accounting – combining the reported negative net position (driven largely by bonded debt) with the present value of projected shortfalls in major social insurance programs. Yet public debate continues to revolve almost exclusively around the much smaller figure of Treasury securities outstanding.

There is no way that anyone can spin the facts that I have just shared with you to make them look good.

So if conditions are already this bad, what will things be like six months from now if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed?

We really are in unprecedented territory, and the truth is the economic conditions could easily get a lot worse during the months ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 16:20

Crypto Industry On Track To Surpass 2024 Spending On Texas Midterms

Zero Hedge -

Crypto Industry On Track To Surpass 2024 Spending On Texas Midterms

Crypto super PACs scored big in the 2024 midterms, backing 53 of 58 candidates who won seats in Congress nationwide - including four from Texas.

(Azul Sordo/The Texas Tribune, Azul Sordo/The Texas Tribune)

This cycle, the same groups are pouring money into a fresh slate of Texas contenders and are on track to exceed their 2024 spending levels in the state, according to KSAT

Two major PACs - Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress - have already committed more than $2.5 million to Texas candidates this year, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings. Both are tied to Fairshake, the cryptocurrency industry’s massive super PAC war chest, which started 2026 with $193 million in cash on hand.

When combined with other crypto-aligned super PACs, the industry has spent at least $28 million on congressional races nationwide so far this cycle. At the same point in the 2024 cycle, those groups had spent roughly $22 million.

In 2024, Protect Progress was the primary crypto spender in Texas, dropping nearly $1 million to help Rep. Julie Johnson win her Democratic primary and general election. Overall, Protect Progress and three other crypto super PACs - including Defend American Jobs and Fairshake - spent a combined $2.5 million on Texas candidates such as Sen. Ted Cruz, Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and Rep. Craig Goldman.

Since the last midterms, Congress has passed major cryptocurrency legislation, including the GENIUS Act in July 2025 - the first federal regulatory framework for the industry, which passed with bipartisan support and was backed by crypto groups. Yet the industry’s sharp increase in political spending suggests it remains concerned about potential new restrictions.

Bills such as the Clarity Act, which critics argue would weaken oversight of crypto markets, are still under negotiation and could further shape policy.

"The fear is there’s going to be significant regulation on the part of Congress, and so [crypto PACs] want to find people who would be willing to at least listen to them," said Daron Shaw, a government professor at the University of Texas at Austin.

In Texas, nearly two-thirds of the crypto spending has gone to a single candidate: Rep. Christian Menefee. Fairshake’s progressive arm, Protect Progress, has spent more than $1.5 million to help Menefee defeat Rep. Al Green in a runoff for a Houston-area seat that covers much of Harris County. Green was drawn out of his original district in redistricting, while Menefee won a special election in January.

Green, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, has opposed key pro-crypto bills, including the GENIUS Act and the Clarity Act. He has also publicly criticized cryptocurrency’s potential to undermine U.S. sanctions and the environmental impact of crypto mining.

Menefee, by contrast, has embraced blockchain technology on his campaign site, saying it can "increase trust, transparency and efficiency" when paired with strong consumer protections. The industry group Stand with Crypto gave Menefee an "A" rating and Green an "F."

"When you get an ‘F’ that means they don’t like you," Green said on the House floor March 19. "When they don’t like you, they’ll do whatever they can … to expel you, to evict you."

Menefee, who holds a significant financial edge, told reporters he recognizes the widespread adoption of crypto and wants smart regulation to curb scams.

"Over 70 million Americans have crypto right now, and a lot of them are young, a lot of them live in Texas-18, a lot of them are Black and brown folks," Menefee said. "My job is to protect them, and you can’t protect people when you refuse to engage on an issue."

The race has also highlighted a generational split: Green is 78, while Menefee is 37. Menefee argues his generation is more open to emerging technologies like crypto and that lawmakers shouldn’t "bury [their] heads in the sand." Green did not respond to a request for comment.

On the Republican side, Defend American Jobs has spent roughly $771,000 supporting Jessica Steinmann, who is running to succeed retiring Rep. Morgan Luttrell in Magnolia. Steinmann, a former Trump administration official and aide to Sen. Ted Cruz, describes herself as a "strong supporter of digital assets, blockchain technology and financial innovation" that promotes economic freedom without stifling growth.

The same PAC has spent about $92,000 backing Chris Gober, a conservative attorney seeking to replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul in Central Texas. Gober’s campaign emphasizes boosting technology investment and turning Austin and the Brazos Valley into "America’s center for innovation," though he does not highlight crypto specifically.

Defend American Jobs also spent approximately $141,000 on Trever Nehls - twin brother of Rep. Troy Nehls - who won the primary in a solidly Republican district outside Houston after his brother opted not to seek reelection.

Michael Beckel of Issue One, a nonpartisan group focused on reducing money in politics, noted that cryptocurrency was once a fringe sector but has rapidly gained influence.

"The cryptocurrency industry wants people in Washington and in state houses to be able to pick up their phone calls," he said.

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said crypto super PACs were unusually effective in 2024 and appear set to repeat that success.

"Crypto was successful last cycle in being the only player on the block, and having a chilling effect on political leaders being willing to put any rules or guardrails," Green said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 15:45

Federal Appeals Court Allows Texas To Enforce State Immigration Law

Zero Hedge -

Federal Appeals Court Allows Texas To Enforce State Immigration Law

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A divided federal appeals court on April 24 allowed Texas to enforce a state law that permits the arrest and prosecution of individuals thought to have unlawfully crossed the U.S.-Mexico border.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit voted 10–7 to undo a 2024 injunction that had prevented enforcement of the law known as Senate Bill 4. Initially, the former Biden administration had challenged the statute, but the second Trump administration dropped the challenge in March 2025.

SB 4, which Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, signed in December 2023, would make it a state-level crime to illegally enter or re-enter Texas from a foreign country, give state judges authority to order that violators leave the United States, and allow prison sentences ⁠of up to 20 years for those refusing to comply.

The Fifth Circuit did not address the merits of the case because it found that the groups challenging the law—Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center and American Gateways—lacked legal standing to do so.

Standing refers to the right of someone to sue in court. The parties must demonstrate a strong enough connection to the controversy before the court to justify their participation in a lawsuit.

The groups had argued that SB 4 was preempted—or superseded—by the federal Immigration and Nationality Act.

“This case concerns whether the State of Texas, exercising its historic, sovereign police powers, can legislatively protect its citizens from a surge of illegal aliens in response to an unprecedented border crisis and a declared invasion,” Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith wrote for the majority.

“The [federal] district court judge and a divided panel held that it cannot. Because the Plaintiffs that are challenging the new statute lack standing, we vacate the [district court’s] preliminary injunction without addressing the merits of the preemption claim.”

The majority said SB 4 was enacted to respond to “widespread, illegal, disruptive immigration into the State,” including “more than 6 million illegal aliens, from over 100 countries,” including 100,000 unaccompanied minors, about 2,000 gang members, and 336 persons on the terrorist watchlist, who streamed across Texas’s international border from 2021 to 2023.

Circuit Judge Priscilla Richman filed a dissenting opinion, disagreeing with the majority’s decision to deny standing.

Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center, at least, would have standing to seek an injunction because if the preempted state law were to take effect, it would have to use its resources to represent clients in the state immigration system, she said.

Richman said she would have addressed the merits and upheld the district court’s injunction against the law.

“Federal laws on the books permit Texas to assist the federal government in apprehending illegal immigrants if the federal government so requests. But Texas cannot enact its own immigration regime,” she said.

A three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit upheld the district court’s February 2024 injunction in July 2025, holding that SB 4 would have interfered with the federal government’s efforts to enforce the nation’s immigration laws.

Along the way, in March 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court briefly permitted the statute to take effect. Not long after, the Fifth Circuit panel temporarily blocked the law pending further review.

Later, the full Fifth Circuit agreed with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s request to reconsider the case.

Paxton hailed the new ruling.

“My office has secured yet another major win for Texas by defending SB 4 before the Fifth Circuit,” Paxton said in a statement.

“Texas’s right to arrest illegals, protect our citizens, and enforce immigration law is fundamental. This is a major victory for public safety and law and order,” he said.

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center and American Gateways. No replies were received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 15:10

DOJ Re-Adopts Executions By Firing Squad As It Strengthens Federal Death Penalty

Zero Hedge -

DOJ Re-Adopts Executions By Firing Squad As It Strengthens Federal Death Penalty

The Department of Justice on Friday directed the Bureau of Prisons to expand death penalty protocols to include pentobarbital injections and firing squads as part of broader actions to strengthen the federal death penalty, Fox News reports

"Today, the Department of Justice acted to restore its solemn duty to seek, obtain, and implement lawful capital sentences — clearing the way for the Department to carry out executions once death-sentenced inmates have exhausted their appeals," the DOJ memo obtained by Fox News read.

"Among the actions taken are readopting the lethal injection protocol utilized during the first Trump Administration, expanding the protocol to include additional manners of execution such as the firing squad, and streamlining internal processes to expedite death penalty cases," the memo read.

A chair sits in the execution chamber at the Utah State Prison on June 18, 2010, after Ronnie Lee Gardner was executed by firing squad in Draper, Utah. (Trent Nelson / The Salt Lake Tribune via AP

In addition to recommending the new methods of execution, the DOJ is also directing BOP to look into expanding the federal death row and constructing additional execution facilities.

Additionally, the DOJ also plans to consider a rule that will help states to streamline federal habeas review of capital cases which, if adopted, the DOJ says will reduce the period between conviction and execution in state capital cases by years. Death row inmates can often wait decades after receiving their sentence to face execution.

On President Trump's first day of his second term, he issued an executive order "to ensure that the laws that authorize capital punishment are respected and faithfully implemented." 

In 2025 the Trump administration rescinded a moratorium on federal executions instituted by former President Joe Biden's DOJ. Biden also commuted the sentences of 37 of the 40 death row inmates in December 2024, a move widely condemned by Republicans as dangerous but praised by Democrats as an act of justice and mercy.

The DOJ's Friday memo slammed the Biden administration. "The prior administration failed in its duty to protect the American people by refusing to pursue and carry out the ultimate punishment against the most dangerous criminals, including terrorists, child murderers, and cop killers," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche wrote.

The federal government has never executed a person by firing squad, though some states still use firing squads to execute death row inmates at the state level. South Carolina carried out three firing squad executions in 2025. 

Pentobarbital is a central nervous system suppressant that many states use as a fallback to the standard three-drug cocktail for lethal injections. The Biden administration barred its use, arguing that it caused "unnecessary pain and suffering." The DOJ, however, claimed its use is in line with the 8th amendment, which states that cruel and unusual punishment is unconstitutional. 

"These steps are critical to deterring the most barbaric crimes, delivering justice for victims, and providing long-overdue closure to surviving loved ones," the DOJ memo read. 

 

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 14:35

"We Have All The Cards": Trump Cancels Witkoff-Kushner Trip To Pakistan For Iran Talks

Zero Hedge -

"We Have All The Cards": Trump Cancels Witkoff-Kushner Trip To Pakistan For Iran Talks Summary
  • Araghchi has responded - saying that he has conveyed Iran's position, waiting to see if The US "is truly serious about diplomacy"

  • In a sharp reversal, Trump has personally canceled the Witkoff-Kushner trip to Pakistan

  • Iran denies that FM Abbas Araghchi's trip to Pakistan will include new talks with US, rejecting reports that Trump is sent his negotiating team to restart negotiations.

  • 24/7 shuttle diplomacy (via Al Jazeera): There’' been shuttle diplomacy, and as one diplomat said, it's been relentless diplomacy that has been put forward by Pakistan from all sides.

  • Iran's military says finger on the trigger: "greater power & readiness than before."

  • Pakistani mediators are "cautiously optimistic" despite it being clear negotiations have been at a stalemate.

//--> //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 53% · No 48%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Trump Cancels Witkoff-Kushner Trip to Pakistan for Iran Talks

In a sharp reversal first reported by Fox News, President Trump has personally canceled the planned trip of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan.

Trump told the outlet that he halted the delegation just as they were preparing to leave:

“I’ve told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, ‘Nope, you’re not making an 18 hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you’re not going to be making any more 18 hour flights to sit around talking about nothing.’”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has reportedly already left Islamabad, Pakistan, following Saturday talks with the country's prime minister.

Update: Araghchi has responded, saying on X that he had a "Very fruitful visit to Pakistan, whose good offices and brotherly efforts to bring back peace to our region we very much value," but adding "Shared Iran's position concerning workable framework to permanently end the war on Iran. Have yet to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy."

So much for that “cautious optimism” that Pakistani officials were citing as a sign of progress. The Pakistan-mediated channel is now in clear stalemate, with the Trump administration signaling it sees no value in further shuttle diplomacy on Iran’s current terms.

*  *  *

Iran Foreign Ministry Insists 'No Meeting is Planned' Even With US Delegation En Route

Not too much that's new or bombshell happened overnight, with a second round of US-Iran negotiations still in limbo, but with the US delegation led by Witkoff-Kushner said to be departing Saturday or else en route. A small Iranian team has already been there since Friday, engaging the Pakistanis, also amid reports that they will submit a written presentation of their conditions for ceasefire and where things stand from Tehran's point of view.

Iran has denied that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's trip to Pakistan will include new talks with Washington, rejecting reports that President Trump is sending envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to actually restart negotiations. So once the US side arrives, it would be interesting to see what happens next. Potentially they could start in separate rooms with messages delivered, and thus the interaction would be indirect.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said in a post on X early Saturday that "no meeting is planned to take place between Iran and the US" during the visit and that Tehran’s positions will instead be conveyed to Pakistan. Araghchi said earlier he is undertaking a "timely tour" of Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow to "closely coordinate" with partners on bilateral issues and consult on regional developments. Iranian state media said the three-leg trip forms part of Tehran's ongoing diplomatic push to secure an end to US-Israeli aggression.

Iran FM's arrival earlier, via Pakistan PM office/AFP, Getty Images Reports of 'Optimism' amid 'Stalemate' in Talks

At the moment there's no direct contact between Tehran in Washington on the diplomatic front. The Pakistanis have been back at the center of shuttling messages back and forth between US and Iranian officials. Al Jazeera has presented commentary Saturday citing "optimism" but also an ongoing stalemated situation:

So we are still in that stalemate, but Pakistani officials are telling us that their presence here and the Americans coming is an indication that behind-the-scenes diplomacy is working.

There’s been shuttle diplomacy, and as one diplomat said, it’s been relentless diplomacy that has been put forward by Pakistan from all sides.

There’s been, in the last 24 hours, conversations that have been held not just between the Pakistanis and Iranians, but also between the Pakistanis and the Russians – Russia is going to be one more stop when the Iranian foreign minister leaves.

An important overnight headline: Sources close to Pakistan-Iran talks say negotiations are progressing through "Iranian concessions" in exchange for "American flexibility regarding the issue of frozen funds," according to Al Hadath.

And also this: Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Islamabad said Pakistani mediators are "cautiously optimistic" regarding Iran-US talks.

Iran Military: Ready & Waiting To Fight

Iran's military warned the United States it will face the "reaction of Iran’s powerful armed forces" if the blockade of Iranian ports continues, according to Tasnim News Agency.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the armed forces possess "greater power and readiness than before to defend sovereignty, territory, and national interests, which the country’s army experienced part of this power and offensive capability during the Third Imposed War." 

This is actually consistent with what even Trump predicted - that the ceasefire has been used by Iran to regroup, rearm, and reposition its forces.

Currently the only regional fighting remains in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, despite there technically being a Trump-backed three week Lebanon ceasefire:

"We are ready and determined, while monitoring the behavior and movements of enemies in the region and continuing to manage and control the strategic Strait of Hormuz, to inflict even heavier damage on the American Zionist enemies in case of another aggression," the Iranian military statement added.

US Law Set 60-day Limit on Unauthorized Wars, So What Next?

CNN reports that "A post-Vietnam law puts a 60-day clock on the use of military force without congressional authorization." Congress has indeed been missing in action, with several efforts of a handful of members on the House and Senate sides having put forth War Powers resolutions, which keep getting defeated. But the 60-day mark comes up on May 1, but it's anyone's guess what happens next. 

According to the CNN report, the law lays out a timeline for undeclared wars:

First, 48 hours. The president must notify Congress within 48 hours of introducing the armed forces “into hostilities” and explain the scope, justification and likely duration of the effort.

In his notification to Congress about Iran, Trump, like other presidents, said he committed troops under a president’s inherent authority in the Constitution to “conduct United States foreign relations.”

Second, 60 days. Congress must authorize the use of force within 60 days of receiving that notification or, the law says, the military action must be terminated by the president.

Third, a possible extra 30 days. Trump can extend the 60-day clock for another 30 days if he argues that continued military action is needed to keep service members safe while withdrawing from the war. Trump has said he won’t be rushed into making a bad deal to end the war.

It goes without saying that the longer this drags on, and with an open-ended timeline, the more politically costly it will likely be for Republicans headed into next Fall's midterms.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 12:06

MiB: David Gardner, Co-Founder, The Motley Fool

The Big Picture -



 

This week, I speak with David Gardner, Co-Founder of The Motley Fool. We discuss his new book book “Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of he Future and Build Lasting Wealth.”

We also discuss the the Rule Breaker framework — David’s checklist for spotting the kind of high-growth, category-defining companies (think early Amazon, Netflix, NVIDIA) that drive long-run portfolio returns — and the trade-offs versus more conservative approaches.  David’s podcast at the Fool, Rule Breaker Investing, has been going since 2015.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream the full conversation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Bloomberg.The video version is on YouTube.  The full archive of MiB episodes can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Joe McLean, Managing Partner at MAI Capital Management, where he leads firm’s Sports & Entertainment division, serving 100s of pro athletes/entertainers across NBA, NFL, MLB, PGA + NASCAR. His path to finance runs directly through the locker room as a 4-year NCAA Division 1 player at U of Arizona. Dubbed the athlete’s “Money Whisperer” by the New York Times, he is known for his non-negotiable 60% savings mandate for clients.

 

 

 

Recently Authored:

 

Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

Books Barry mentioned

 

 

 

The post MiB: David Gardner, Co-Founder, The Motley Fool appeared first on The Big Picture.

White House Confirms Trump To Address Memecoin Gala Tonight

Zero Hedge -

White House Confirms Trump To Address Memecoin Gala Tonight

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via Cointelegraph,

The White House has reportedly confirmed that US President Donald Trump will attend the exclusive event for top TRUMP memecoin holders at his Florida residence on Saturday, after questions were raised earlier this month over whether he would attend.

Reuters reported on Friday that the White House confirmed Trump would deliver a keynote address at the gala luncheon organized by the company behind his Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin.

The gala is set to take place at Mar-a-Lago. It will be open to the top 297 holders of the TRUMP token, and the top 29 holders will also qualify for a private reception with the president.

When the event was announced in March, a White House official told Politico that it was not locked into Trump’s schedule and that it was taking place the same day Trump said he would attend the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner in Washington, DC, the first time he would do so as president.

Trump, pictured at a Turning Point USA event on April 17, is confirmed to be addressing an event for holders of his memecoin on April 25. Source: The White House

The event’s terms also state that Trump may not be able to attend the event, and it “may be canceled for any reason.”

Trump’s potential attendance at the event has been a sticking point for some lawmakers, who have criticized the event as a conflict of interest for the president.

Earlier this month, Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal and Adam Schiff reportedly sent a letter to Bill Zanker, the individual behind the TRUMP memecoin, questioning whether Trump intends to “dangle access” to himself at the upcoming event.

“[O]rganizers are promoting a conference by dangling access to President Trump to potential attendees (and in doing so, are encouraging purchases of his meme coin that will generate transaction fees for the President and his family) on a day he may not actually be able to attend,” the letter said.

It is the second event for holders of the TRUMP token. The first took place at a Trump golf club in May 2025 and drew criticism from those who said Trump was using his position as president for personal financial gain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 11:40

Trump's SWIFT Hint And The Decline Of The Euro

Zero Hedge -

Trump's SWIFT Hint And The Decline Of The Euro

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump indicates the imminent return of Russia to the SWIFT payment system. It would mark the end of sanctions against Russia. But the Prussians are not shooting that fast anymore.

Currency policy is geopolitics. This is especially true as soon as the US dollar is involved. And that is almost everywhere and at any time on the globe, no matter how often European and Chinese media sound the death knell over King Dollar. It may specifically be an annoyance to European politics and Beijing, but for the time being the US dollar remains the world’s leading and reserve currency, giving the United States the leeway to defend their market dominance while rolling their debt burden relatively smoothly into the future. 

Washington is working under high pressure not to let this monetary configuration change, at least for the moment.

In this context, one must interpret the Truth‑Social post by US President Donald Trump from the weekend: Trump indicated in a video that Russia is ready to return to the US‑regulated global financial system SWIFT.

In essence, Trump is saying that Russia has understood that SWIFT and the dollar represent the future – not the dream of a BRICS currency. Indeed, one has heard little from the BRICS project in recent years; it seems the two main actors, China and Russia, are failing to anchor a currency system that ultimately depends on the monetary credibility of Beijing and Moscow. Who would really be willing to hold large portfolio shares and cash reserves in a Chinese CBDC that is exposed to Beijing’s political whims?

Back to Truth Social: it is well known that the US president often behaves erratically in his media work. Yet this posting still offers an important clue as to the strategic line of American currency policy.

It is quite possible that the meeting of the two presidents, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, last year in Alaska marked the visible beginning of a gradual coordination of currency and energy policy between the United States, Russia and China. It fits this narrative that the US is again and again permitting Russia the sanction‑free sale of its oil in recent weeks and thereby signaling above all to Europe: ARC is real – America, Russia and China are coordinating their activities, not least on the energy markets.

And the strategy is lying quite openly on the table: in the context of the Iran conflict and precisely at a moment of scarcity on the energy markets, Washington granted Russia the sanction‑free sale of its oil through the sales channel of its shadow fleet. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended this special arrangement last week for another month in order to relieve pressure from the oil and gas price cauldron. That turns the spotlight on the question of how energy is factored globally, and which currency dominates. At this point, the full power of the dollar empire unfolds.

The lion’s share of invoicing is, of course, carried out in US dollars; somewhat more than eighty percent of global energy trade runs in US dollars.

The creditworthiness of the United States is still beyond doubt. And demand for US government bonds is currently higher than ever. The largest purchases of US government debt come from Great Britain, the EU and Japan. All three seek to ward off possible dollar shortages in a crisis. If flight to the greenback takes hold, these flows drive currency costs through the roof.

In addition, the attempt by European politics to use its own Euro currency to push into a potential vacuum left by the US dollar has failed. The ill‑considered power‑political escapism of Brussels and London prevented them from using the global bond markets via the euro lever as a kind of dumping ground for the enormous state debts of European countries.

In Europe, one has shot oneself in the knee 20‑times in a row with a torrent of sanctions packages against Russia, possibly once even in the head. Moscow was the dominant international customer whose energy transactions were willingly settled in euros, thus stabilizing demand for the common currency. Russia settled its entire gas trade with Europe in euros. But this is history.

The idea of the euro as a leading currency is now history; after European policymakers decided to put their economies on renewable “flutter power,” there is no turning back. Ideology has consequences, and this is particularly true for the currency market, which prices in national risks faster than others. For about three years now, the role of the euro in the international currency system has been eroding – slowly but steadily. Looking at a bloodless, over‑regulated and no longer internationally competitive European industry, this trend is unlikely to reverse in the foreseeable future.

At this point I want to restate my thesis from last year: the US dollar as the world’s reserve and leading currency will survive even during the transformation phase towards a multipolar order. At the same time, a new trade and negotiating balance will emerge between the United States and China. The fact that the United States will not be used as a pawn by Beijing in the future will be secured by the reordering of the Middle East, including control of the world’s most important maritime choke point, the Strait of Hormuz. The coming weeks and months will show who will dominate the geopolitical chessboard in this multipolar world.

For Europe there is one certainty: energy prices will, in the long run, settle on a higher plateau, ushering in an extended phase of inflation and industrial contraction.

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 10:30

Germany's Debt Spiral Warning Ignored As Berlin Doubles Down On Spending

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Debt Spiral Warning Ignored As Berlin Doubles Down On Spending

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil is a sensitive character. Such personalities tend to react irrationally and extremely defensively to criticism. They are prone to resentment and quick retaliatory reflexes.

So it was only a matter of time before the Federal Court of Auditors, too, felt the cold anger of the thin-skinned Social Democrat. Late last year, criticism from the auditors was promptly followed by a budget cut imposed by the Finance Ministry. The move was meant as a public warning shot across the bow of the recalcitrant watchdog, which traditionally plays the role of post-mortem critic. This comes with the unpleasant habit of describing the state of public finances as they actually are — not as Berlin prefers to imagine them.

The Court’s budget was subsequently reduced from €52 million to €47 million, officially on efficiency grounds. What Klingbeil failed to achieve, however, was to silence the auditors entirely.

It has become a bad tradition: as in every year, the Court again warned of an ever-accelerating debt spiral and a fiscal policy that appears to have lost all restraint. The state is living beyond its means, said President Kay Scheller. On the contrary, one might reply: this state is living beyond our means.

The current draft budget foresees total spending of €630 billion, with nearly every third euro financed through borrowing. By 2029, another €850 billion in new debt is planned — pushing visible public debt to €2.7 trillion, or roughly 67% of GDP.

Unfortunately, the Court’s analysis of debt dynamics remains superficial. In its assessment, however, it aligns with recent criticism from the Ifo Institute.

Both institutions criticize how the state handles new debt. We know from Ifo analysis that roughly 95% of the funds from special off-budget vehicles have been diverted to cover deficits across various layers of the welfare state. Germany is not investing — and the private sector is now running on negative net investment, effectively consuming its capital base.

Dig deeper into Germany’s debt swamp and it becomes clear why Berlin consistently avoids the issue.

A recent Ifo paper calculated non-contributory benefits in the statutory pension system. Economists concluded that these hidden costs could amount to as much as 50% of GDP in the long run. This explains why the overstretched state apparatus now acts merely as a firefighter, no longer capable of maintaining infrastructure. Even Scheller’s call to raise the public investment ratio from 8% to 10% is unlikely to materialize.

One can almost be grateful that the Court of Auditors is among the few institutions still attempting to describe the fiscal reality. Yet even it avoids addressing the root causes — deindustrialization, overstretched public finances, and structurally broken budgets at all levels of government. Unsurprisingly, Scheller and his team also steer clear of politically sensitive issues such as open-border policies, which are pushing the welfare state toward implosion.

There is no mention of the costs of the self-destructive Ukraine war, nor any call to halt funding for the sprawling NGO complex or dismantle the green subsidy machine.

The debate misses the core issue. The state is operating an unlimited welfare machine while committing itself to building eco-socialist economic structures. Under such conditions, a return to a lean state is impossible.

Those calling for a return to sound fiscal policy without naming the underlying causes only make it harder to reverse the ideological crash course. Their superficial criticism suggests that the current trajectory can be maintained with cosmetic reforms. The design of the state itself is not to be questioned.

Pressure for change will only arise when rising public debt — largely financed through new bond issuance — drives up refinancing costs. If bond markets eventually turn against Germany’s debt binge, the European Central Bank will likely step in as lender of last resort, pushing inflation sharply higher.

Already, around 8% of federal spending goes toward servicing interest on the growing debt pile.

Meanwhile, the government has outlined how it intends to deal with the incoming debt crisis — by targeting households. Family co-insurance in public health care will be scrapped, as will income splitting for married couples. Inheritance taxes will be broadly increased, and expect debate over a wealth tax alongside significantly higher social security contributions.

Extraction via the CO₂ mechanism will intensify, and wealthy individuals and capable businesses will leave the country. This is not a theoretical scenario but the result of a political relapse into socialist ideology. The spiral of impoverishment is accelerating.

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 09:20

Global Inflation Scare: Chinese Exporters Hike Prices As Iran War Triggers Ethane Shortage, Plastics Crunch

Zero Hedge -

Global Inflation Scare: Chinese Exporters Hike Prices As Iran War Triggers Ethane Shortage, Plastics Crunch

Chinese exporters are finally passing on the pain - right as they're experiencing a major shortage of a key industrial material. After years of cutting prices amid overcapacity and cutthroat competition, manufacturers are now raising prices on everything from swimsuits and ski suits to medical syringes and air conditioners. The culprit: the Iran war’s energy shock, which has sent oil-linked input costs skyrocketing and is now rippling straight through to global store shelves.

Customs data compiled by Trade Data Monitor and analyzed by Bloomberg reveal sharp year-on-year price jumps in March across more than a dozen categories of household goods - the first sustained reversal in a disinflationary trend that had helped keep a lid on inflation from the U.S. to Europe for nearly three years.

"I held off raising prices for as long as I could in March, but in the end I had no choice," said Pang Ling, sales manager at a Shanghai-based medical catheter maker. "I panicked watching plastic costs climb almost every single day."

Products reliant on rubber, plastic, and oil-derived chemicals were hit hardest. Syringes saw prices surge as much as 20%. Synthetic-fiber goods - including swimsuits, women’s trousers, and ski suits - rose in the low- to mid-single digits as polyester and fiber suppliers hiked prices daily. Home appliances faced a double squeeze from higher metals and semiconductor costs. Even as some sectors like toys cut prices under weak demand, the broader picture is clear: the era of ultra-cheap Chinese goods is ending.

The numbers tell the story. China’s export prices had been falling steadily since May 2023, shaving an estimated 0.3–0.5 percentage points off headline inflation in advanced economies, according to Capital Economics. That buffer is now vanishing. Bloomberg Economics says above-3% inflation in 2026 is "back in play" across the euro area, U.S., and U.K. - a dramatic reversal from pre-war forecasts of cooling prices. Goldman Sachs expects overall Chinese export prices to turn positive as soon as March data, due out around April 25.

A 10% rise in oil costs typically lifts Chinese export prices by about 50 basis points over the following year, with the peak impact hitting four to five months later, Goldman estimates. The full effect hasn’t hit consumers yet - many March shipments were ordered weeks or months earlier - but the pipeline is filling with higher costs.

The Ethane Shock: Why Plastic Prices Are Set to Soar

Nowhere is the pressure more acute - or more politically explosive - than in plastics.

As we noted earlier this week, China is facing a severe ethane shortage that is about to supercharge costs across the entire plastics supply chain. Ethane, a natural gas liquid, is the primary feedstock for producing ethylene, the essential building block for plastics used in everything from medical catheters and syringes to clothing fibers, packaging, and consumer goods.

For years, China relied heavily on naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Middle East. In February, just before the war, more than 50% of China’s naphtha imports and over 40% of its LPG purchases came from Persian Gulf nations. That supply line has now been severed for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. China holds massive strategic petroleum reserves - 1.5 billion barrels of crude - but it has virtually no stockpiles of naphtha or ethane. Its petrochemical industry is suddenly, dangerously exposed.

The International Energy Agency warned last week that “petrochemical feedstocks display the most immediate effects of the war by far,” with Asian supply chains thrown into “disarray.” Naphtha-fed crackers still account for 57% of China’s ethylene capacity, compared with just 16% for ethane-based units.

Desperate for alternatives, Chinese petrochemical producers are turning to the United States in record volumes. Shipments of U.S. ethane are expected to hit an all-time high of 800,000 tons in April - roughly 60% above the monthly average - according to Chinese consultant JLC. Some crackers can switch to ethane, helping offset the naphtha and LPG shortfall.

But this lifeline comes at a steep and rising price. Ethane has become the preferred feedstock because it is cheaper and more stable than crude-linked naphtha right now - profits from ethane-based ethylene were tenfold those of naphtha as of April 15, JLC data show. New capacity, including Wanhua Chemical Group’s ethane unit and Sinopec Ineos’s multi-feed cracker, has also boosted demand.

A tanker docked at liquid petroleum gas-ethane storage tanks. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

The result? Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) - Pang’s key input - surged as much as 80% in March from pre-war levels and remains about 50% higher even after a partial pullback. With naphtha alternatives cut off and ethane imports surging, plastic resin and downstream product prices are poised to climb sharply in the coming months. Competition and weak domestic demand may limit how much Chinese firms can pass on, but the input-cost pressure is now structural, not temporary.

The timing adds a geopolitical layer. China’s buying spree comes just weeks before President Donald Trump’s planned mid-May visit to Beijing. U.S. energy exports are expected to feature prominently in talks — especially if the Iran conflict drags on. One year ago, during the height of U.S.-China tariff tensions, analysts openly debated the mutual dependencies: America’s need for Chinese rare earths versus China’s near-total reliance on U.S. ethane for its plastics industry. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 08:45

EU Ministers Fail To Suspend EU-Israeli Cooperation Agreement; Germany Calls 'Inappropriate'

Zero Hedge -

EU Ministers Fail To Suspend EU-Israeli Cooperation Agreement; Germany Calls 'Inappropriate'

Via Remix News,

A move to end the EU-Israel Association Agreement has been struck down, led by objections from Germany, Austria, and Italy. The accord, in existence since 2000, has served as the framework for EU-Israeli relations pertaining to both trade and foreign policy, with a key pillar being Israel’s access to the markets of EU member states.

13 October 2025, Berlin: The flags of Israel, the EU and Germany fly in front of the Berlin House of Representatives. Following the release of the hostages held in Gaza, the House of Representatives also raised the flag of Israel as a sign of solidarity with the state of Israel and its people. Photo: Jens Kalaene/dpa (Photo by Jens Kalaene/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Last week, Spain, Ireland and Slovenia wrote a letter to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas, citing Israel’s decisions by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as laws passed by its parliament and actions taken by its military.

It cited, most recently, the death penalty approved by the Israeli parliament as evidence of “systematic persecution, oppression, violence and discrimination exerted against the Palestinian population.”

“In such a grave situation, we call on the European Union to uphold its moral and political responsibility, and to defend the very core values that have underpinned the European project since its foundation,” they wrote.

Going even further, the letter highlighted that Israel has essentially broken its agreement with the European Union. “Not only a grave violation of fundamental human rights, but also a step backwards in Israel’s commitment to democratic principles, as underlined by your March 31 statement, and therefore a violation of Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.”

Spain has cited Article 2 for more than two years to take action against Israel and attempt to invalidate the agreement.

“Bold and immediate action is required, and all actions must remain on the table. The European Union can no longer remain on the sidelines,” the letter concluded.

However, the ministers gathered at the  Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg ultimately rejected the proposal.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called any move to suspend the agreement “inappropriate,” reports Politico, joined by his Austrian counterpart in a push for “critical, constructive dialogue.” 

Before the meeting, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told reporters that “There are neither the numerical nor the political conditions” for such a measure to be taken.  

A partial suspension requiring majority approval would also not have passed, given Italy and Germany’s objections. According to Politico, Kallas did raise the possibility of targeted measures that do not dismantle the wider trade agreement and do not require unanimity, with Tajani reportedly supporting her on this. “I believe it is better to sanction individually those responsible, I am thinking of violent settlers,” he stated.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 08:10

The EU 'Democracy Shield' Is The End Of Freedom In Europe

Zero Hedge -

The EU 'Democracy Shield' Is The End Of Freedom In Europe

Via Remix News,

The year 2026 will go down in the history of European integration as a special moment. The European Union, under the banner of protecting democracy, has begun systematically restricting freedom of speech and real political pluralism. Thus, it embarks on the well-trodden historical paths of every authoritarian regime, resorting to violence and censorship as public support wanes.

A report recently published by the Ordo Iuris Institute leaves no doubt: we are dealing with a project for a profound overhaul of the public sphere that will primarily target conservative communities, including Catholics.

Jerzy Kwasniewski, the head of the conservative institute Ordo Iuris. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

The new EU mechanisms, ironically referred to as the “Democracy Shield,” are not a single piece of legislation. This is a coordinated regulatory system—from the Digital Services Act (DSA), through codes of conduct on “hate speech” and “disinformation,” to the regulation on political advertising. Their common denominator is the now-official departure from the European cult of free speech and its replacement with a system of preventive restrictions, in the name of… true freedom and democracy.

The European Commission claims that its aim is to create a “safe” information space in which “reliable” messages are meant to dominate, that is, in practice, narratives aligned with the liberal consensus . The problem is that the criteria for the EU’s “credibility,” for what is considered prohibited “disinformation,” and—what is particularly harmful—”divisive speech” are extremely vague and prone to ideological interpretation. As a result, it will not even be independent courts, but online platforms cooperating with non-governmental organizations selected by Brussels that will decide what content may reach citizens of the European Union. Including Polish citizens.

This system is multi-stage. First—mechanisms for reporting and removing content that, in practice, incentivize rapid takedowns, even at the expense of freedom of expression. Secondly—a labeling system under which statements labeled as “unverified,” “misleading,” or “political” are subject to mandatory restrictions on platforms such as Facebook or X. Thirdly—there is to be algorithmic intervention that limits the reach of content deemed problematic.

It is worth emphasizing the role of so-called trusted flaggers and fact-checker networks. It is precisely these entities, often financed with public funds from the European Union or the Member States and ideologically uniform, that gain a privileged position in the content moderation process. In practice, this means cleverly delegating censorship to entities that are not subject to any democratic oversight.

Even more troubling are the regulations concerning political advertising. The definition of “political speech” has been framed so broadly that it encompasses not only the activities of political parties but also public awareness campaigns concerning the protection of life, the family, or national identity. This means that Catholic pro-life organizations or movements defending marriage as the union between a woman and a man may be subjected to restrictive requirements and even sanctions. Even now, our own Ordo Iuris Institute and Center for Life and Family, as well as our friends from Polonia Christiana’s PCH24 news portal and their editorial team should start preparing to implement a “replacement language.” The censorship game, well known here in Poland from the communist era, is making a comeback.

At the same time, restrictions on the targeting and funding of political messages make it much more difficult to reach voters. In practice, the largest platforms, such as Facebook, have already stopped running “political” ads to avoid legal risk. It is no longer possible to freely promote petitions opposing abortion or same-sex unions there.

The Polish political context cannot be ignored. The introduction of these instruments specifically in 2026, just before the crucial parliamentary campaign in Poland, is no coincidence. Restricting the reach of conservative speech, making it harder to organize public-interest campaigns, and selectively labeling content as “problematic” will have a real impact on election results.

From the perspective of socially engaged Catholics, this is particularly dangerous. Unequivocal assessments concerning the protection of life from conception, the indissolubility of marriage, the condemnation of the aberrations of gender ideology, and even clear support for national sovereignty within the European Union will increasingly be classified as “controversial” or “divisive.” In the new regulatory model, such content may be restricted not directly—through a ban—but through invisible mechanisms of reach reduction and stigmatization.

This does not, of course, mean that the state has no right to combat crimes online or to protect citizens from real threats. The problem is that the European Union has crossed the line between protection and control, between security and social engineering.

Therefore today, more than ever, courage is needed to defend freedom and the right to publicly proclaim one’s faith. Not as a privilege for the select few, but as the foundation of a healthy society. If we allow, under the pretext of combating “disinformation,” the voices of those who defend life, the family, and sovereignty to be curtailed, democracy will quickly become a grim dictatorship hidden behind a facade of apparent diversity and tolerance.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 07:00

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

•  AI Chatbots Know More About You Than You Realise: A handful of casual questions is enough for a chatbot to assemble a strikingly detailed profile of the user. The language we use is full of signals we don’t know we’re sending; AI has learnt to read them. (Straits Times)

‘It Beats Pitchfork Rebellions and the Guillotine’: Why These Super-Rich Americans Are Asking For Higher Taxes: As far as political protest goes, this was among the most civilized I have ever witnessed. The organizers did not make any noise beyond the idling truck covered in changing digital billboards. There were no chants on the sidewalks, no signs to leave behind as litter. The workers at the estate of billionaire Jeff Bezos looked with curiosity that quickly gave way to indifference as the visitors’ vehicle flipped through a three-minute slide deck mocking the Amazon founder: “Congratulations! You won capitalism! Now pay your damn taxes. It beats pitchfork rebellions and the guillotine” — a very civilized class of protesters. (Time) see also What I Learned About Billionaires at Jeff Bezos’s Private Retreat: For the richest men on Earth, everything is free and nothing matters. (The Atlantic)

The Man Who Invented the Future: The Widener family fortune was built on electricity — and on a founder who imagined the modern world before it arrived. Are we the conflicted heirs of the world according to Francis Bacon? (Hedgehog Review)

The Great Ozempic Experiment: Online and in doctors’ offices, people are finding that GLP-1s may help with everything from arthritis to addiction to migraines.It’s a new era of D.I.Y. medicine. Now the health establishment needs to catch up. GLP-1s may help with everything from arthritis to addiction — and we’re all the test subjects. (New York Times)

10 Things That Matter in AI Right Now: MIT Tech Review’s take on the ten AI trends, tools, and debates that actually matter heading into the rest of 2026. (MIT Technology Review see also The Warehouse, in Plain Sight: How the American warehouse — now being repurposed by DHS — became invisible infrastructure hiding in plain sight. That concrete box off the freeway wasn’t designed for storage so much as capture — of markets, workers, and, now, people detained by immigration agents. It’s a disappearing machine. We need to see it clearly. (Places)

AI, Iran and the Gulf 101: Deutsche Bank’s primer on how AI investment, Iran policy, and Gulf capital fit together. (Deutsche Bank)

It’s Been Quite the Year for Victoria Beckham: The Spice Girl turned fashion designer clawed her way out of debt and posted record profits. Family troubles aren’t standing in the way of her success. (WSJ)

• OnlyFans Model, 20, Made $43 Million Last Year. To Her, It Doesn’t Conflict with Christian Values: ‘The Lord’s Very Forgiving’ (Exclusive) At just 20 years old, Sophie Rain is making a life-changing yearly income of over $43 million — and sees no contradiction with her faith. (People)

The invention of the soul: Humans weren’t given souls by God or genes. We made them ourselves with language – turning sentience into something sacred (Aeon) see also You’ve lived this life before: The mystical insight came to Nietzsche like a lightning flash: time eternally recurs – and life must be lived accordingly (Aeon)

Marilyn Monroe’s Nudes Made Her Notorious. “Surprisingly Good” Acting Made Her a Star. In an exclusive excerpt from their new book, The Marilyn Monroe Century: From Norma Jeane to Icon―A Story in Photographs, John Miller and Mark A. Fortin trace the icon’s meteoric rise from scandal to stardom. Plus, a selection of previously unpublished photographs by Bruno Bernard. (Vanuty Fair)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with David Gardner, cofounder of The Motley Fool in 1993 (with his brother Tom Gardner). Originally launched as a print investment newsletter based on the idea that ordinary investors could beat Wall St., it gained traction when promoted on America Online (AOL) in 1994; it soon became a major presence on AOL and then Fool.com. His latest book is “Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth.”

 

There’s never been an investment like the investment in railroads

Source: @paulg

 

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