There has been a lot of discussion about the impact of AI slop on writing and other creative works. I can’t speak to AI music or AI-created actors, but I can talk a bit about writing.

To me, the biggest single issue is output over process.

Any output – from a full-length book to a short blurb and everything in between – is only part of what the writer who creates a work accomplishes. It is what readers see, what professional writers get paid for, and the written legacy they leave behind.

The greatest value in writing (to me at least) is not necessarily this finished product, but rather, the process the author goes through to create that work. Putting a word down on paper or pixels forces a coherence and clarity that is typically unavailable until the writing is done. Perhaps the best observation on this predates AI by decades and comes from former Librarian of Congress Daniel Boorstin, who said, “I write to figure out what I think…”1

The written word is the most visible work product, but it is not the valuable part of writing – the process is…

Boorstin viewed the act of writing not merely as a regurgitation of what they knew, but rather as an exploratory process, a mechanism for thinking about ideas, context, framing, secondary effects, unintended consequences, inversions, and what-ifs. The process allows an author to strengthen and clarify their arguments and to formulate complex ideas.

I could spill another 10,000 words on this, but after 30 years of writing countless blog posts, it is not necessary. I have already figured out what I think about this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

__________

The quote in full reads, “I write to discover what I think. After all, the bars aren’t open that early.”

The post The Written Word Is Not Your Work Product appeared first on The Big Picture.

The post The $40 Trillion Debt and Trump Corruption appeared first on CEPR.

Futures Rise On Opex Day As Yields Stabilize; Bitcoin Almost Tags $80,000

US futures rebound from Thursday's slump, and trade at session highs on.  As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.4% higher with Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.6%, while Bitcoin headed for its best week in more than three years, rising just shy of $80,000 before reversing. S&P 500 futures jerked higher and yields extended declines as oil edged lower shortly after 7am ET on this headline: *IRAN’S PRESIDENT SAYS BETTER TO END WAR TODAY WITH DIGNITY:ISNA, and while the market erroneously viewed this as a sign of de-escalation, he has made many similar comments in the past. Among Iranian officials, Pezeshkian has long been one of the most vocal proponents of ending the war with the US through diplomacy. In any case, tech is again making headlines, with Broadcom in talks with lenders to raise as much as $100 billion in an off balance sheet SPV financing deal that would benefit Anthropic and other companies. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by META (+0.9%) and TSLA (+1.1%). Today is the monthly option expiration day so expect low volume volatility around key pin levels. TSY yields are down 1-2bps across the curve although the 10Y remains just around 4.70%. The slide in the greenback is continuing, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.3% and at a three-month low. Commodities are mixed: base metals ad ags are all lower, while gold is 1.6% higher this morning; oil is unchanged. Overall, the overnight news flow was mostly quite as investors are waiting for today’s Global PMI release. Today's US economic data calendar includes Bloomberg US economic survey for August, and S&P Global US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs. No Fed speakers are scheduled for the session

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +1.3%, Meta +0.7%, Alphabet +0.7%, Amazon +0.6%, Nvidia +0.5%, Apple +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%)

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin rises, putting it on track for its best weekly gain in more than two years. Strategy (MSTR) climbs 8%, Coinbase (COIN) rises 5%.
• Mining stocks are rising as gold is on track for a third weekly gain after the US Treasury’s unexpected ramp-up in buybacks of long-dated government debt underscored concerns about its burden. Newmont (NEM) rises 3%.
• Flowers Foods (FLO) falls 4% after the maker of Wonder Bread cut its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year.
• O-I Glass (OI) rises 5% after Citi upgraded the packaging products company to buy, saying shares appear to be “meaningfully oversold.”
• OSI Systems (OSIS) falls 13% after the medical device maker’s forecast for fiscal 2027 revenue fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• Parsons Corp. (PSN) rises 2% after Baird upgraded the IT services company to outperform, saying guidance looks conservatively set.
• NetEase ADRs (NTES) rise 6% after the company’s core gaming business was seen as resilient and forecast to keep growing steadily.
• Ross Stores (ROST) climbs 8% after the off-price retailer boosted its earnings per share forecast for the full year.

In other corporate news, Samsung Electronics said it expects to return as much as 110 trillion won ($79 billion) to shareholders this year, joining rival SK Hynix in handing investors a chunk of the windfall generated by the AI rush. Anthropic PBC expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX’s record-setting initial public offering, according to Bloomberg. SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile are among companies expressing interest in acquiring a swath of 800 MHz-band spectrum held by Grain Management that’s valuable for providing wireless phone services directly from space. Virtu Financial is said to be considering a potential sale of its agency brokerage and technology division to free up capital to invest in its core market making operation.  Nvidia is in early discussions with the Korean AI chip designer Rebellions about possible collaborations. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is seeking to buy two separate banks for a combined price of €34 billion ($40 billion) as it wants to prevent being taken over by rival Intesa Sanpaolo SpA. Broadcom is in talks with a group of lenders to raise as much as $100 billion in debt for an AI chip financing deal that will benefit Anthropic PBC and other companies, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

After days of swings that saw long-dated yields hit their highest levels in decades, Treasuries were little changed on Friday. Brent crude struggled for direction, while gold hit the highest level since May. Investors are now assessing the fallout from a week that saw bond yields spike on worries about inflation and spendthrift governments, a surge that prompted the Treasury to intervene to curb long-dated borrowing costs. They are now awaiting a promised new initiative from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aimed at fiscal consolidation. “Equity markets are vacillating between concerns about the tech sector and rising bond yields, though today, both seem to have declined,” said Joachim Klement, a strategist at Panmure Liberum. “Fact is that the US Treasury can do little if anything to turn the trend in long-term bond yields for good.”

The surprise decision by the Treasury Department to increase its repurchase program this week “sent the clear message to investors that rising yields matter now,” notes JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke. “While the Treasury market has been soft since the election, we do not view it as dire. The Treasury drawing attention to it may turn it into a problem,” O’Rourke adds.

Bitcoin rallied as much as 9.4% and headed for its best weekly advance since 2023. A short squeeze triggered by Bessent’s midweek announcement of bigger buybacks of long-dated bonds remains a major driver of the gains.

In hedge funds, Hamza Lemssouguer’s Arini Capital Management is said to have lost roughly 8% in July on soured credit bets. The drawn out Evergrande saga underscores the inherent perils of short selling, said Andrew Left.

Nearly $29 billion flowed into US equity funds in the week through Aug. 19, the largest inflow in three weeks, according to BofA's Michael Hartnett who said if US intervention in the bond market fails to “drag 30-year yield below 5%,” that would fuel a slump in the dollar and cause asset allocation to shift to short risk, short leverage and short cyclicals into midterms.

Stronger-than-expected manufacturing data helped pushed the the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% and snapped a seven-day losing streak for European equities, the longest in a decade. Still, the Stoxx 600 is less than 2% below its record high, and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan remain among the most optimistic about the region’s prospects, a Bloomberg survey showed. “Europe has done much better than almost everybody would have expected at the outset of this year,” said Sharon Bell, senior European equity  strategist at Goldman Sachs. “There’s been so much attention on a handful of companies in the US and Asia that I just don’t feel Europe has had its proper due.” Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Nibe shares gained as much as 10%, the most since May, after the Swedish heating and climate solutions group posted strong earnings, that SB1 Markets predicted could trigger single-digit upgrades to consensus estimates
• Siegfried shares rose as much as 9.3%, briefly hitting their highest level since February, after the maker of active pharmaceutical ingredients delivered results ahead of expectations in the first half
• Bavarian Nordic shares rose as much as 9.1%, the most since July 2025, after the Danish vaccine maker boosted its Ebitda margin forecast for the full year and announced a new share buyback program
• Domino’s Pizza Group shares rose as much as 4% after Shore Capital upgraded its recommendation on the UK franchise of the world’s biggest pizza company to buy from hold.
• Hunting Plc shares fell as much as 20%, the most in four years, after the energy services provider cut its full-year profit guidance by 7%
• Straumann shares fell 3.5% after being downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank, which says increasing risks and the CEO transition “cloud the outlook” for the Swiss dental implant maker
• CTS Eventim shares slid as much as 9.5% after reporting results for the second quarter

Asian stocks advanced as heavyweight Samsung Electronics’ plan to return some of its windfall AI profits to shareholders lifted the technology sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1%, with chipmakers among the biggest contributors. Samsung plans to return up to 110 trillion won ($79 billion), in what would be one of the company’s most significant capital-return initiatives. Benchmarks advanced in South Korea, Hong Kong, mainland China and Taiwan. Samsung’s payout plan follows SK Hynix’s announcement of a $29 billion buyback. Hopes for more AI-fueled shareholder returns have been a bright spot amid mounting concerns over rising bond yields and fading prospects for a US-Iran peace deal. The MSCI Asia index is down 0.3% for the week, poised to snap four-straight weeks of gains.

In FX, the dollar headed for its worst week this month before US manufacturing PMI data that may give investors more insight into the health of the world’s biggest economy.  A Bloomberg gauge tracking the dollar against peers fell 0.3% to its lowest level since May 12 as it continued to face a backlash from investors after Wednesday’s announcement that the US Treasury would boost purchases of longer-dated government bonds.  USD/JPY drops 0.4% to 158.36; Japan’s consumer price index excluding fresh food rose 1.8% in July from a year earlier, accelerating for a second month. EUR/USD on course for a third daily advance and a fourth weekly gain, for the first time since April 2025. GBP/USD rises as much as 0.3% to 1.3676; Britain’s private sector expanded at the fastest pace in four months, as sunny weather and a strong service sector prompted households and businesses to turn on the spending taps. Japan’s benchmark Topix pared an earlier loss to flip to gains, finding support from bank stocks and the marine transportation sector. “If you look at the sectors, money is still flowing into areas such as resources and domestically-oriented stocks,” said Shuutarou Yasuda, a market analyst at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory. 

In rates, treasuries opened higher in a belly-led move; 30-year USTs underperformed with yields about 1bp lower at 5.24%. Wings of the curve are lagging ahead of US services and manufacturing reports. Choppy trading session overnight with oil prices lower and UK gilts and European front-ends outperform Treasuries. US yields higher by less than 0.5bps across belly, with the 2-year yield slightly lower and 30-year unchanged. 2/10’s and 2/30s are flatter by around 0.5bps vs. Thursday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.70%, richer by 1bp on the day with bunds slightly and gilts up 1 bp in the sector. Market pricing for Federal Reserve rate hikes was steady ahead of US PMI data, September OIS around 9bps of a rate hike priced.  IG dollar issuance slate is quiet. On Thursday three companies raised a combined $3.25 billion in the US investment-grade bond market. Next week is expected to be light for issuance, before the seasonal rush begins after Labor Day 

“As the buyback announcement effect fades, we expect yields to resume their upward drift and the curve to maintain a steepening bias,” fixed-income strategists at Societe Generale SA wrote in a Thursday note

In commodities, WTI futures lower by around 1.1%, and have been trading below Thursday’s close during the overnight session. Brent crude futures are down 0.5% but on track for a roughly 5% rise this week as the ongoing Middle East conflict drives prices higher. The dollar’s loss is supporting gold, up 1.5% and briefly trading on a $4,600/oz handle for the first time since mid-May. The rally in Bitcoin has garnered further momentum, up over 7% and closing in on the $80k mark. 

Today's US economic data calendar includes Bloomberg US economic survey for August, and S&P Global US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs. No Fed speakers are scheduled for the session. Next week’s key events include Nvidia earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors will also be focusing on a heavy slate of results in Asia, including the first report from newly public chipmaker CXMT.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s bid to prop up the US bond market has been dismissed by investors as a “band-aid on a bullet hole”, as concerns mount over Washington’s $40tn debt burden and smoldering inflation. FT
• The market is treating the Treasury’s buyback announcement as a pure dollar negative, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech next week at Jackson Hole could be the catalyst for another round of greenback weakness: BBG
• Broadcom Inc. is in talks with a group of lenders to raise as much as $100 billion in SPV debt for an AI chip financing deal that will benefit Anthropic PBC and other companies. BBG
• Surging healthcare costs are walloping U.S. workers, and they will only worsen next year. For 2027, employers may be facing the biggest health-insurance increase in at least two decades. WSJ
• China will roll out additional fiscal policy measures in response to economic developments, Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said on Friday, as growth slows in the world's second-biggest economy. China will maintain the continuity ‌and stability of macroeconomic policies and plan and allocate fiscal resources over a longer time horizon, Liao told a press conference. RTRS
• Ever since President Trump’s return to office, America’s allies have been fretting about Washington’s intentions. Now, after the inconclusive war against Iran has eroded U.S. weapons stockpiles and laid bare the limits of American hard power, they also worry about American capabilities. WSJ
• Japan’s consumer inflation picked up last month as the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict rippled out across goods, firming expectations that the next interest-rate hike is around the corner. WSJ
• Samsung Electronics expects to return as much as $80 billion to shareholders this year, joining rival SK Hynix in sharing the AI windfall and fueling optimism across the tech sector. Nasdaq futures led gains. BBG
• Unprecedented shareholder-return plans by South Korea’s two chipmaking giants are emerging as a key swing factor for the won, potentially extending its recent rally if the firms tap local currency markets to fund the payouts: BBG
• Eurozone flash PMIs were solid in Aug, with manufacturing coming in at 52.8 (vs. the Street 51.8) and services at 51.7 (vs. the Street 51.5), as the economy demonstrated healthy growth and easing inflation pressure. S&P
• Britain posted a surprise budget deficit in July, underscoring the fragile state of the public finances as Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey begins to draw up his crucial autumn budget: BBG
• Bitcoin topped $78,000, on track for its best week in more than three years. BBG
• September and October in midterm election years is when volatility picks up and S&P returns fade ... and that’s usually followed by a post-event bounce: Goldman

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed as the region attempted to shrug off the broadly negative handover from Wall Street, where risk sentiment was dampened amid a rebound in yields and Walmart's weak sales growth. ASX 200 traded with mild losses amid another deluge of earnings and mostly softer flash PMI data. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open but is well off today's worst levels, with participants digesting the latest inflation data from Japan, which mostly matched estimates and remained below the 2% price target, but accelerated from the previous and could support the case for further BoJ rate hikes. KOSPI clawed back early losses with price action driven by the tech heavyweights, with SK Hynix considering building a memory chip plant in Japan's Miyagi prefecture and with Samsung Electronics expected to announce a KRW 100tln shareholder return plan today. In addition, the comments from BoK's newly appointed Senior Deputy Governor Kwon were less hawkish than his predecessor, in which he stated that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark in the green and its biggest movers driven by recent earnings releases, while the mainland struggled for direction despite China's Vice Finance Minister flagging incremental policies and the PBoC resuming 7-day reverse repo operations for the first time in more than a week.

Top Asian News

• China's Vice Finance Minister Liao said they will roll out additional fiscal policy measures in response to economic developments. Liao added that a greater share of fiscal spending will be directed towards households and consumption.
• PBoC reportedly to "survey" some mutual funds regarding long-dated bonds, sources suggested.
• Japan's Finance Ministry is considering setting an assumed interest rate at 3.8% for calculating debt servicing costs in the FY27/28 budget request, Nikkei reported.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said an economy that is growing will experience a certain level of inflation. Japan has the lowest inflation among G7 nations due in part to the effect of government steps.
• Japan's LDP cabinet reshuffle is likely to occur in the latter half of September, Kyodo reported citing sources. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara is expected to retain their position

European bourses begin the final trading session of the week with broad gains, with the blue chip EuroStoxx 50 set to break its 5-day losing streak. Volumes remain light as the Summer season. On the data front, despite mixed French and German PMIs, the EZ figure printed stronger-than-expected across the board, with clear strength in the manufacturing sector. Commentary by S&P highlighted the effect of the heatwave on the services sector. For the ECB, S&P stated that the hawkish bias should remain giving the solid Q3 GDP growth, renewed hiring and elevated inflation. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, given the resurgence of precious metals (spot gold +1.5%). Construction and Autos round out the outperformers. To the downside is Health Care, with Media and Financial Services completing the sector laggards.

Top European News

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Jul): 1-year inflation expectation: 2.9% (prev. 3%), 3-year inflation expectation: 2.7% (prev. 2.8%), 5-year inflation expectation: 2.4% (prev. 2.4%).
• European Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2) 2.44% (Q/Q Rev. 2.56%, Prev. 2.48%).
• Germany's VDMA said German Machinery exports fell 0.8% Y/Y in H1'26. Geopolitical crises, tariffs, and weak demand in certain countries are collectively weighing on foreign trade in the machinery sector.
• UK Chancellor Healey has been warned by investors and analysts to limit budget borrowing and not to relent in efforts to reduce the UK's fiscal deficit amid bond sell-off, according to FT.

FX

• G10s are entirely firmer against the Buck with Antipodeans the clear outperformers after China signalled further fiscal measures; CAD and NOK helped by oil prices which eke gains.
• DXY sits at the lower end of its 98.56-98.84 range, with the recent move lower coinciding with the gradual downside seen in global bond yields. In the prior session, Buck saw some modest weakness after Bessent hinted at further measures to temper yields, action which was reversed through the US afternoon, but an area which DXY has returned to this morning.
• As expected, July's UK Retail metrics were weak, echoing the BRC monitor for the same period. And despite the 3M commentary around the weather, the ongoing heatwave and end of the World Cup appear to have hit activity. For the BoE, the print does not change the narrative, and instead we look to Flash PMIs later today. Cable saw around 8 pips of downside after the data, action which was swiftly pared in choppy trade. Flash PMIs failed to spur a reaction, despite broadly printing further into expansionary territory. With GBP/USD breaching the resistance at 1.3654, chartists will be focused on the next resistance high at 1.3712.
• EZ flash PMIs supported the bullish EUR bias today as figures indicating solid third quarter GDP growth, a return to hiring by companies for the first time this year, and inflation remaining elevated by historical standards. EUR/USD looks to Thursday's 1.1710 high, thereafter, resistance around 1.1750.
• Antipodeans outperform after China’s Vice Finance Minister pledged to roll out additional fiscal policy measures, remarks which follow similar rhetoric from July’s Politburo meeting. Attention will be on further measures to be released in the coming days, which could continue to help the Antipodes. AUD and NZD each firmer by 0.6% against the Buck, with Aussie looking to 0.72, Kiwi eyeing 0.5980, thereafter 0.60.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, but with price action tentative and trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Earlier action was muted, though US30yr has been gradually falling as the morning progressed. The US 30yr resides at 5.23% vs yesterday’s peak at 5.26% and off near-term highs at 5.33%.
• USTs (+3 ticks) hold within a very narrow 108-14 to 108-17+ range. The lack of news flow and the ongoing summer lull have led to thin ranges, but later markets will have US PMI metrics to digest, as well as an appearance from President Trump. Elsewhere, the US10yr (4.68%) also moves lower this morning, lacking a clear catalyst. A factor which has led to a decline in the USD, whilst spot gold and Bitcoin have moved to highs.
• Bunds (+2 ticks) are also trading steady this session. The European benchmark has had regional and EZ-wide PMI metrics to digest this morning, whereby the French and German releases were subject to poor Services components, whilst Manufacturing topped expectations.
• Elsewhere in Europe, the EZ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2) figure fell from the prior, which will be welcomed by policymakers at the ECB – but unlikely to push away calls for a September hike. On the inflation front, the latest ECB SCE saw 1- and 3-year expectations fall from the prior.
• Gilt (-4 ticks) price action essentially echoes the above. UK Retail Sales were weak, whilst the PMIs mildly topped expectations. The accompanying report, “the data suggest the Bank of England looks likely to keep a hawkish bias but will stay cautious, holding off any rate hikes until the growth and inflation trajectories become clearer”. The release saw downticks of c. 7 ticks, but this proved fleeting.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures trade on a softer footing amid a pullback from yesterday’s surge, and as geopolitical headlines quieten down, for now, heading into the weekend. Major updates have been light this morning. Reports via the Jerusalem Post suggested security officials see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms. Meanwhile, the report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume. Near-term catalysts remain dependent on US-Iran developments, with the next inflection points likely coming from any surprise weekend military action, Iran’s response to US economic pressure, or any updates on diplomacy.
• WTI Oct currently resides around session lows in a USD 85.95-86.94/bbl range, after printing USD 85.23-87.69/bbl range yesterday. Brent Oct sits in a USD 92.97-94.00/bbl range after printing a USD 91.47-94.71/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF, conversely, keeps rising, with European storage replenishment also on traders’ minds. Dutch TTF has risen to a current high above EUR 66.50/MWh from levels under EUR 65/MWh earlier this morning.
• Metals are higher across the board and are cheering continued weakness in the USD, with woes for the Buck this week compounded by the mid-week US Treasury buyback announcement. Spot gold found support at its 200 DMA (USD 4,514/oz) and currently trades towards the top of a USD 4,509-4,602/oz range, with the next upside level the psychological USD 4,600/oz. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 68.50/oz) and eyes USD 70/oz to the upside in a USD 67.91-69.92/oz range. Base metals are similarly firmer across the board, with 3M LME copper towards the upper end of a USD 14,050.90-14,194.08/t.
• Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have reportedly declined, Reuters reported.

Central Banks

• ECB's Kazaks said he sees wage growth gradually slowing and that the ECB is well placed to act, if needed.
• BoK's new senior deputy governor Kwon said growth is improving more than expected, inflation is exceeding target and financial stability risks remain, while he added that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed due to FX volatility and geopolitical risks. Kwon stated he doesn't want to define himself as a hawk or dove, and will make decisions based on circumstances and data.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Security officials reportedly see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms, Jerusalem Post reported. The report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume.
• US President Trump said on Michael Cohen's podcast that the US is essentially and soon controlling the strait, while he said Iran has some missiles and drones, but low capacity to build.
• US VP Vance responded that their main focus is not really on that, when asked how long Iran could withstand economic pressure, while he added that Iran is under a lot of pressure, which helps achieve our goal of making sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon.
• Iranian Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said Iran must draw up plans to overcome unjust sanctions in order to defeat them.
• Yemen's Houthis said they targeted a Saudi airport and an Aramco facility.
• Yemeni Armed Forces announce the targeting Houthi heavy equipment and fortifications, according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Ukraine/Other

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Russia's Perm and a military base in Marinovka.
• North Korea reportedly fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles in its third missile launch this month, hours after rejecting US President Trump's overtures.
• Japan, US and South Korea held a phone call regarding North Korea missile launch.
• China and Indonesia will expand joint-military exercises and will work together to accelerate the modernisation of their respective armed forces, according to Indonesia’s Defence Minister.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.9, prior 53.9
• 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 54, prior 54.6
• 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53.95, prior 54.5

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The past 24 hours saw renewed pressure in bond markets as the rally following the US Treasury's announcement on Wednesday that it would expand its buyback operations faded. That meant 10yr Treasury yields rose by +5.8bps to 4.71%. The sell-off in rates was reinforced by the continued rise in energy prices, with Brent crude (+2.36%) advancing for a fifth consecutive session to $93.78/bbl, amid continuing concerns over US-Iran tensions. The backdrop of higher yields and oil prices led the S&P 500 (-0.87%) to post its biggest decline of August so far. Market sentiment has stabilised somewhat overnight, though yields are mostly drifting higher in Asia while the US dollar is trading near three-month lows.

Yesterday’s rise in yields came despite US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s attempts to ameliorate the market situation in an interview on CNBC. Bessent said that the buybacks previously announced could be bigger than the $4bn per issue, and that Treasury had a “big toolkit” for the treasuries market. Intriguingly, he also said that the administration would be announcing an increased focus on fiscal consolidation, “probably at the end of this week, beginning of next week”, although he provided little other detail. Long-end yields did stabilise as the session went on, but 10yr yields still fully reversed Wednesday’s rally (+5.8bps after -5.7bps Wednesday), while 30yr yields (+5.7bps and -9.2bps) reversed most of theirs.

So for now investors are viewing the Treasury’s steps more as a band-aid than a structural solution to rising yields. Indeed, as we argued in our note dedicated to the 250-year anniversary of the US (see here on the DB Research Institute), while financial repression could play some role in managing the US debt burden, it needs to be combined with genuine fiscal consolidation to have a sustained impact.

Meanwhile, the stagnant situation in the Middle East also added pressure on rates yesterday, as markets digested Trump’s threat from Wednesday night that Iran would face the “most crushing economic operation ever”. In his CNBC interview yesterday, Bessent also said that oil markets were “misinterpreting” what this economic pressure means, and that he would hold a press conference on Monday to discuss the next steps. With lingering questions of whether the US could target countries economically supporting Iran, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said “sanctions and pressure will not help resolve the issue”. As prospects of resolution remained distant, Brent crude crossed $93/bbl to its highest level since late July. Brent is a marginal -0.32% lower this morning.

With oil prices moving higher against the uncertainty, that put renewed pressure on inflation expectations, with the US 1yr inflation swap rising +16.0bps, its largest daily move since March. 5yr inflation swaps (+6.4bps) also posted a decent gain to its highest level since June at 2.51%. In turn, expectations of Fed hikes edged higher with pricing of a September hike up from 32% to 36% and 23bps of hikes being priced by year-end (+1.6bps on the day). Staying on the Fed, St. Louis Fed President Musalem reiterated his view that inflation remained too high due to shocks and persistent demand. Musalem had supported a hike in July, although he is a non-voter this year.

Yesterday’s US data also did nothing to push back against the move higher in yields, with the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for August rising to its highest level since April 2021 (47.4 vs 41.4 prev., 24.8 exp.). Even more impressively, the capex expectations reading within the survey saw its highest reading since the 1970s. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the period ending in August 15 were a little lower than expected (206K vs 210k exp.), signalling that the labour market remains stable.

The bond sell off has spread to Asia overnight, with yields on 10yr Japan (+3.3bps) and Australia (+5.1bps) bonds moving higher, while 10yr Treasuries are stable. For JGBs, the move comes as Japan’s flash August composite PMI rose to a 6-month high of 53.4 (from 52.7) with both manufacturing and services activity accelerating. Meanwhile, Japan’s July national CPI rose from 1.6% to 1.9%, in line with expectations, with core-core (ex. fresh food and energy) inflation rising from 1.7% to 1.9%. The data has underlined market expectations of a September BoJ hike, with its pricing rising from 79% to 82% this morning.

We’ll also get flash PMIs across the Eurozone, UK and US today, which will give us a further sense of whether the economic resilience seen so far this summer has continued. In a sign of positive momentum continuing, the UK’s GfK consumer confidence reading (-14 vs -18 expected) released overnight unexpectedly rose to its highest level in two years.

Equities struggled yesterday in response to the unwinding of fixed income gains, with the S&P 500 (-0.87%) posting its biggest decline of August so far. The Nasdaq (-1.00%) and the Mag-7 (-1.11%) saw larger losses, even as the Philly Semiconductor index (+0.53%) reversed some of its losses from earlier this week. Sentiment also wasn’t helped by earnings from Walmart (-9.15%), whose shares slumped after the company saw its slowest US sales growth since 2020 at +2.6% yoy. So that renewed questions about the health of the US consumer amid the backdrop of high energy prices, rising interest rates and a low saving rate.

The equity mood has improved a bit overnight, with both the S&P 500 (+0.06%) and NASDAQ (+0.20%) edging higher, while Asian markets are mixed. The Nikkei (-0.30%) is underperforming, but the Hang Seng (+0.72%) and CSI 300 (+0.52%) are advancing. Korea’s KOSPI is also up +0.89% following on a +5.89% surge yesterday. That’s been helped by a +2.10% gain for Samsung Electronics as Bloomberg reported that the company plans to announce a new package of dividends and buyback of up to 110trn won ($79bn).

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also mostly lost ground yesterday. While 10yr bunds (-0.2bps) were little changed, the 10yr OAT yield (+1.5bps) reached a new post-2008 high of 4.12%, with BTP (+1.4bps) yields also higher. Meanwhile, 10yr gilts (+2.3bps) underperformed, in part following a better-than-expected August CBI Trends survey. That said, the relatively modest bond moves came despite European gas prices (+3.36%) rising to their highest level since January 2023 at €65.50/MWh, as worries of an energy shock continued to permeate markets. Indeed, the Euro 1yr inflation swap rate also rose +3.4bps to its highest level since late July. In the equity space, Europe’s Stoxx 600 (-0.12%), DAX (-0.42%) and CAC 40 (-0.57%) declined, whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.04%) inched up.

Turning to FX, with yields rebounding, the dollar index (+0.06%) stabilised yesterday after Wednesday's decline but is -0.14% lower overnight. Gold (+0.02%) was also little changed at $4,517/oz after having its best day since February on Wednesday. Conversely, Bitcoin (+5.25%) rose for a 4th consecutive session to its highest level since late May. It is another +2.64% higher, nearing the $75k level this morning, though that still leaves the cryptocurrency down about -15% this year.

Finally, Sweden’s Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected. In the comments, the bank said that the probability of a rate hike later this year still holds. Money markets are now pricing 23bps of Riksbank hikes by December, down from 28bps the day before.

Turning to the day ahead, the data highlight will be the flash August PMIs across France, Germany, Eurozone, UK and US. Other data include July retail sales in the UK, France August business confidence, the ECB’s July consumer expectations survey, Eurozone August consumer confidence and Canada June retail sales.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 08:34

British Protesters Jailed For Longer Than Migrant Who Sexually Assaulted Girl

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

British men who protested outside an Essex asylum hotel have been locked up for far longer than the migrant whose sexual assaults on a 14-year-old girl and a woman triggered the demonstrations.

Charlie Land, 24, and Jonathan Glover, 48, received 32 months and 30 months respectively at Chelmsford Crown Court for violent disorder during the July 2025 clashes at The Bell Hotel in Epping. The Ethiopian national at the centre of it all, Hadush Kebatu, got just 12 months.

This is the latest chapter in a pattern that has already seen multiple local men handed heavier sentences than the man whose crimes set off the backlash.

Epping asylum hotel protesters jailed for longer than migrant occupant who assaulted woman and girlhttps://t.co/lO70iA2I01

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 19, 2026

Kebatu arrived in Britain on a small boat and was housed at the Bell Hotel. Within days he approached a 14-year-old girl on a bench in Epping, tried to kiss her, made sexually explicit comments, placed his hand on her thigh and later assaulted a woman who had offered help.

He was convicted of multiple sexual offences, including two counts of sexual assault, and sentenced to 12 months in September 2025. A judge described him as manipulative with a "poor regard for women" and said he posed a significant risk of reoffending.

He was later mistakenly released from HMP Chelmsford due to an administrative blunder, triggering a multi-force manhunt before he was finally deported to Ethiopia.

The protests that followed were initially peaceful. They escalated on 17 July 2025 when counter-demonstrators arrived and disorder broke out.

Hundreds gathered. Police vehicles were attacked. Officers were shoved, punched and kicked. Essex Police said the overall policing operation cost more than £1.5 million.

Land was captured on drone and bodycam footage repeatedly damaging police vehicles, punching windows, kicking off wing mirrors, letting air out of tyres and climbing onto one vehicle to kick the windscreen while wearing a banned face covering. Judge Mills called him a "full and enthusiastic participant in the violent disorder" who showed "no regard" for officers' safety. The mask, the judge said, "contributed to an atmosphere of intimidation."

Glover was filmed shouting at officers and impeding police carriers. He claimed to be a journalist. The judge rejected that outright: "Genuine journalists record events - they do not manufacture them. You were not a reporter being picked on by the police; you were not the victim of so-called two-tier justice - you were the antagonist. Far from seeking to calm tensions, you repeatedly inflamed them."

These are not the first such sentences. In October 2025 Stuart Williams received 28 months, Martin Peagram 26 months and Dean Smith 22 months. In June 2026 Lee Gower, a local father and youth football coach, was jailed for 33 months. Shaun Thompson received 31 months. Phillip Curson later got 27 months. Combined custodial terms for those convicted already exceed 17 years.

Chief Inspector Terry Fisher of Essex Police said the disorder left the community "scared and anxious," disrupted daily life and damaged local businesses. "Whilst many people who wanted their voices to be heard on an important issue did that safely, a number chose to behave well beyond that and these convictions and sentences show that behaviour is and was entirely unacceptable."

The contrast is stark. A foreign national who sexually assaulted a schoolgirl days after arriving by small boat served 12 months (and was released early by mistake). British men who turned up to protest the housing of such offenders in their town are serving two to nearly three years. The courts have repeatedly stressed that peaceful protest is not the issue - the violence is. Yet the disparity in outcomes has fuelled widespread anger over two-tier justice.

Meanwhile the Labour government continues to free space in overcrowded prisons by releasing thousands of criminals early. Prisons are operating near capacity. Successive schemes have already seen tens of thousands leave early. Further releases are planned under the Sentencing Act, with adjustments after public backlash to exclude some of the most serious sex offenders, yet thousands of other prisoners will still walk free ahead of schedule to ease the crisis.

BREAKING?More than 70,000 criminals freed from prison under Labour's early release schemehttps://t.co/ftAnnKYHYZ

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 30, 2026

British towns are told to accept mass arrivals. When one of those arrivals attacks local children and women, residents who object too vigorously find themselves behind bars for longer than the perpetrator.

The system prioritises capacity management and narrative control over equal application of the law.

Secure borders, swift deportation of foreign offenders and consistent justice for British citizens are not radical demands. They are the baseline of a country that still claims to protect its own people.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 08:15

HSBC Warns Global Zinc Market Is Flashing Signs Of Tightness

HSBC's Global Commodity Team warned Thursday that the zinc market is flashing warning signs of extreme tightness:

Global zinc mine supply remains tight: HSBC's Global Commodity Team expects global mine supply to fall 2.1% y-o-y to 12.5mt in 2026, driven mainly by lower production in Latin America.

The zinc market is expected to be slightly tight in 2026e, driven by a modest recovery in demand in Europe and North America amid supply disruptions at smelters and mines.

Overall, concentrate supply remains tight, and there have been smelter disruptions as well. Zinc demand has held up.

Here's where the physical tightness is emerging: Zinc for immediate delivery on the London Metal Exchange traded at a premium of as much as $132.37 a ton over three-month futures Thursday, the widest backwardation this year.

The spread signals intensifying competition for readily available metal in warehouses. Benchmark zinc rose 1.1% to $3,802 a ton earlier today, putting it on course for a fifth weekly gain and its highest close in four years.

Analysts from Chinese brokerage Jinrui Futures Co. wrote in a note, "There are still concerns about overseas supply disruptions in zinc," adding, "So the driving forces for the relative strength of the LME price continue to exist, together with heightened volatility around macroeconomic sentiment."

Beyond zinc, veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie wrote in a series of X posts Thursday that the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.

Quantix Commodity Index

Currie told his followers to "Get long and buckle up: the next leg of the ride will see more vol with higher highs across more markets."

Read the report here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 08:00

Samsung Unleashes $80 Billion Shareholder Return After SK Hynix's "Buyback Bazooka" To Revive Memory Trade

Days after SK Hynix unveiled a staggering 40 trillion won, or $28.6 billion, "buyback bazooka" aimed at putting a floor under its shares following a sharp six-week selloff, Samsung Electronics joined the capital-return push.

The world's largest memory-chip maker said Friday that it plans to return as much as 110 trillion won, or $80 billion, to investors this year. The twin announcements suggest the world's top memory companies are trying to support higher valuations and reward shareholders after memory stocks surrendered some of their blistering first-half gains.

Bloomberg reports that Samsung intends to distribute roughly half of its free cash flow, including 30 trillion won in third-quarter dividends and about 15 trillion won in share repurchases for employee compensation.

Macquarie analyst Daniel Kim summarized Samsung's capital-return announcement:

What's new

• Samsung Electronics (SEC) updated its much-anticipated shareholder return program today after the market close. There was no change in the committed return of 50% of cumulative FCF from 2024-26.
• Its BoD is meeting in October to confirm the earlier distribution of promised FCF. So, the 3Q26 quarterly cash dividend payment should amount to Won30tr, including the regular quarterly cash dividend of Won2.45tr.
• In late January 2027, the company should determine the remaining capital return amount, which SEC estimates at Won60-80tr, and the method of distribution.
• SEC remains on our Marquee buy list.

Why it matters

• Still formulating capital return policy. Excluding the cash dividend of Won20.9tr already paid out and the executed share buyback/cancellation of Won8.4tr, the company estimates the remaining capital to be returned to shareholders at Won90-110tr, which includes the 3Q26 Won30tr payout. This is 20-35% lower than our forecast.
• Announced only the common-share repurchase of Won15tr for employee bonuses. Separately, SEC plans to repurchase 53.3mn common shares, or 0.9% of outstanding shares, which would cost Won15tr based on today's closing price, from 24 Aug. to 21 Nov. The repurchased shares won't be cancelled and will be paid to employees as bonuses, so they won't count as part of the shareholder return. Samsung preferred shareholders might be disappointed.
• Ample free cash flow to support a more progressive capital return policy. Our projection shows that its net cash position should amount to Won718tr, or 40% of its market capitalization, by year-end 2027 and Won1,358tr by year-end 2028. We expect it to generate total FCF of Won1,434tr for 2026-28E, so its balance sheet should have ample cash unless the company returns far more cash to shareholders.
• More cash dividends than share buybacks. While SK Hynix's capital return is more skewed toward share buybacks/cancellations, we expect Samsung's capital return to consist more of cash dividends than share buybacks. This is partly because Samsung Life (032830KS, not rated) and Samsung F&M (000810KS, not rated) are forced to trim their stakes in SEC under local regulations in the event of significant share retirements by SEC.

What now

• Memory market outlook remains bright. Samsung's significant cash position could hurt its ROE; accordingly, we see significant upside in its capital returns over the next two years. We believe that its capital return policy should improve steadily over time. The stock is trading at 2x ex-cash 2027E EPS. Outperform.

Shares fell as much as 2.6% in post-market trading after the announcement due to a lack of clarity on how much stock Samsung would repurchase and cancel. Some analysts had anticipated total returns of around 150 trillion won.

Kim Minji, a portfolio manager at Must Asset Management, explained that "some investors have recently expected up to 150 trillion won of shareholder returns, which explains the post-market share action."

Kang DaeKwun, chief executive officer at Life Asset Management, held views similar to those of Must Asset Management's Kim, saying the announcement underwhelmed expectations:

• After a local media report that the size of the shareholder return would be up to 150 trillion won, the announcement of up to 110 trillion won is triggering a selloff.
• The announcement met market expectations because Samsung kept its promise to return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders.
• While the market's attention is on the size of the shareholder return, what is more important is the supply of shares.
• While US Big Tech companies are issuing new shares, South Korea is seeing a lower supply of shares thanks to large-scale shareholder return programs.

Announcements from SK Hynix and Samsung this week show that the management teams of the world's top memory-chip companies are concerned that momentum in the space has completely evaporated.

"The smart money is moving on," said Alec Young, chief investment strategist at MoneyFlows, a quant-research firm. "The fact that they have given up a lot of their recent bounce in just a couple days shows that there are a lot of weak hands."

SanDisk and Western Digital have fallen more than 30% from their peaks, while Micron and Seagate are down roughly 20%, signaling that momentum investors are rotating into other trades, such as the materials and energy stocks we pointed out earlier in the week (read here).

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 07:15

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Why Does Everything Feel Like a Scam?: Hanna Horvath on the corrosive effect of price opacity. When you no longer know what anything is supposed to cost, every transaction starts to feel like a con. (Hanna Horvath)

• The bond market is signaling trouble ahead. This is why you should pay attention: Bond prices are falling these days because investors are mainly concerned about two things. First, that rising inflation is making the bonds they are holding worth less. And second, that the U.S. government, under successive presidents, has had a habit of spending more money than it collects in taxes. Imagine suffering a pay cut without trimming back your expenses. (NPR) see also The Treasury Market’s Coveted Status as a Safe Haven Is Fading: Two new studies find signs investors aren’t as willing to accept low yields because of Treasurys’ safety. Greg Ip on two new studies finding that investors are no longer as willing to accept low yields in exchange for the safety of Treasurys. Treasurys are used to price, hedge, and collateralize countless transactions in unrelated markets — which is why the erosion matters well beyond the bond desk.   (Wall Street Journal)

• The Index Fund Turns 50: How Jack Bogle Changed Investing Forever: Vanguard’s pioneering S&P 500 fund was once mocked as ‘Bogle’s folly.’Allan Roth marks the August 31 anniversary of the first publicly available S&P 500 index mutual fund, launched in 1976 by an upstart named Vanguard. All share classes of that fund now hold $1.67 trillion. (Morningstar)

• Read the Minutes, Fade the Presser: Warsh’s explanation of the July hold was not the Committee’s. Heading into September, the FOMC minutes have the reaction function that matters. Claudia Sahm on the gap between the July FOMC minutes and what was said in the press room three weeks ago. With the statement, the presser, and now the minutes, we have a fairly complete picture of Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Chair — and it is an unusual one. (Claudia Sahm)

• When “Serving the Seller” Means Serving Yourself Twice: Commission capture over seller preference, consumer be damned. Jonathan Miller on Compass’s “Three Phase Marketing Plan” and Robert Reffkin’s August 4 earnings-call remark about agents getting their own buyers. Compass’s own data reportedly shows dual agency happens 72% more often off-market. (Housing Notes)

• Silicon Valley Executives Are Tech Fans. Just Not for Their Own Kids. At home, moderation and restraint are the rule for tech parents. Boredom is exalted. Maybe they’re onto something. David Streitfeld on the blunt verdict from court cases in California, Kentucky, and New Mexico. One of the Valley’s signature products now carries all the allure — and the lawsuits — of cigarettes circa 1990. (New York Times)

• New Drone Unit to Be Phased Out as Hegseth’s Army Pick Makes His Mark: Gen. Christopher LaNeve takes aim at a cutting-edge drone unit, one of several moves he has made since taking over the Army. The Army is dismantling the drone assault battalion it stood up in Europe in January, one of several moves by Gen. Christopher LaNeve since taking over. (Wall Street Journal)

• ‘With All My Heart, Natalie.’ Trump’s Most Devoted Aide Emerges: Maggie Haberman on Natalie Harp, always at the president’s side, and the unanswered question of what exactly she does. (New York Times) see also How Trump’s Ever-Present Executive Assistant Became the Talk of Washington: The 35-year-old aide has become an object of fascination and a target of political debate on both the left and the right. (Wall Street Journal)

• Stolen Masterpieces Worth $10 Million Discovered in a Cardboard Box, Months After Thieves Snuck Into a Museum and Whisked Them Away Into the Night: The artworks by Cézanne, Renoir and Matisse disappeared in a three-minute heist earlier this year. Now, police have arrested five suspects in connection with the burglary in northern Italy  Ellen Wexler on the Cézanne, Renoir, and Matisse that vanished from a northern Italian museum in a three-minute heist earlier this year. Five suspects are now under arrest. (Smithsonian)

• A Monday With Brad Pitt: The dogs are shoving their noses through his knees and clawing at the glass door, and the entryway is all plate glass, so the whole scene is visible from outside. The 62-year-old has lived a singular life. He resides in the top 1 percent of the top 1 percent of all movie stars, not only today but ever, as measured by any metric you like, including intrigue. What does he have to say about all of it? (Esquire)

Video of the day: The Lexus LS 400 Happened When The Government Tried To Protect Detroit

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Alex Morris of TSOH Investment Research. He is the author of “Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meetings.” The book was named one of Amazon’s “Best Books of 2025.” To write it, he reviewed every Berkshire annual meeting from 1994 through 2024 — 100s of hours of video covering more than 1,700 shareholder questions over 31 years — after Berkshire released the meeting archives.

 

Stock-Picking Funds Are Performing as Poorly as Ever

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Pennies Have Been Abandoned, Now What Will Be Done With Nickels?

Authored by Adam Dick via RPI

The United States government minted its final penny in November of 2025. This came after fiat money inflation succeeded in depriving pennies of nearly all their value. Pennies are still circulating, but it is increasingly common for stores to round cost totals to avoid giving pennies in change.

Also, people seeing that the metal content of their pennies is worth more than the face value are deciding that it is better to store pennies in a jar than to spend them.

file image via APMEX

The same issues that caused the US government to give up on pennies may soon encourage it to make a major change in regard to nickels.

In an August of 2025 article, I noted that each nickel valued at five cents was costing almost 14 cents to produce. What would the government do in regard to nickels? I suggested two likely options:

The writing seems to be on the wall for nickels. As their metallic value and production costs further and further exceed their face value, there will be more pressure to make changes in nickels’ composition to significantly reduce their cost of production.

Alternatively, the government may, as is being done with the penny, just stop making new nickels.

With penny production ended, it looks like nickel production may soon have a shakeup as well, though one that could buy nickels some time.

Two different versions of the Common Cents Act passed this summer, one in the United States House of Representatives (HR 3074) and the other in the Senate (S 1525).

Both legislative bodies will need to agree on the same bill before it can be sent on to the president for consideration.

Something the two bills have in common is permitting changing the composition of nickels from 75 percent copper and 25 percent nickel to portions to be determined of zinc inside and nickel outside.

The bills specify the composition change must reduce the cost of production of the coins and, "to the greatest extent practicable" have "a minimal adverse impact on machines designed to accept coins."

Such a change for nickels would mirror what happened in the early 1980s with pennies, when newly minted pennies started being 97.5 percent zinc instead of the prior 95 percent copper. The resulting cost savings helped keep penny production going for over forty more years.

Will the US government keep minting nickels for another 40-plus years, or will inflation be so strong that the government much sooner sends the nickel off to the same fate the penny met last year?

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 06:30

Medieval Diseases Have Returned To Los Angeles

In what can only be described as a stunning failure of state and local policy and leadership, Los Angeles County recorded its highest tally of flea-borne typhus cases in 2025, confirming 220 diagnoses, up from 187 the year before, according to the county's Department of Public Health. Almost nine in ten of those patients ended up hospitalized. Fleas that feed on infected rats, opossums, and other small mammals carry the bacteria behind the disease to humans, and Los Angeles has watched the case count climb for years. The 2025 total marks the sharpest jump yet.

Dr. Dean Winslow has practiced infectious disease medicine for fifty years. He taught at Stanford, ran COVID-19 testing programs for the federal government, and served as President Trump's 2017 nominee for assistant secretary of defense for health affairs. Asked whether a typhus outbreak in one of the wealthiest counties in America points to a broader failure in public health and sanitation, Winslow gave a one-word answer. "Absolutely," he told the Daily Signal.

"It's largely an issue of ... people living in just horrible conditions in close proximity to rats," Winslow said, naming rodents as the primary vector for the infection's spread.

The conditions track with the county's homelessness numbers. Homelessness in LA County rose 3.3% over the past year, and in the city of Los Angeles itself the figure climbed 7.9%, according to data from the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority. Winslow said encampments put residents at heightened risk given their proximity to rats, though he cautioned the problem extends beyond encampments alone.

Asked what he would tell city officials, Winslow said the priority should be to "get a handle again on rat control issues."

That task has gotten harder since 2020, when Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Assembly Bill 1788 into law, restricting the use of four rodenticides over concerns about their effects on mountain lions and other wildlife. Winslow pointed to the restrictions as one likely culprit behind the county's swelling rat population, since pest-control operators have shifted toward traps and less potent methods in response. "Those may be two reasons why ... the rat population is out of control [in LA]," he said.

The county's own public health guidance seems to put the burden of prevention on residents, telling them to keep pets on flea-control products, avoid stray animals, clear yard debris, secure trash in tightly lidded containers, and report rodents or opossums to animal control. Mayor Karen Bass's office did not respond to the Daily Signal's request for comment.

Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, examined the county's internal records for City Journal. His team filed public records requests and received a thousand pages of documents from the county health department. What those documents showed is a public health system bracing for outbreaks it had fallen behind on.

"This is about plague rats that have returned," Rufo told Hugh Hewitt on the Salem News Channel. "So we did a story, we did FOIA, we got 1,000 pages of documents from the County Health Department in Los Angeles. And the picture that these documents painted was quite grim. You have a return of typhus, you have outbreaks of hantavirus, you have really a plethora of medieval diseases that are on the rise in LA."

Rufo laid out two forces behind the outbreak. "And there are a couple of causes for this. The first is that the homeless encampments that are scattered, not just in Skid Row, but throughout the city, are the perfect breeding ground for rats. And so now there are millions of rats breeding under the streets of Los Angeles. And the County Health Department admits in these internal documents that they're not ready for these outbreaks," he continued. "And at the same time, you have California Governor Gavin Newsom in two separate pieces of legislation in recent years banning all of the most effective rodenticides, so rat poisons that can keep that population at bay. And when you put those ingredients together, you get something that experts predicted in LA seems powerless to stop, which is typhus, including three deaths from typhus in recent years."

.@christopherrufo: "You have a return of typhus. You have outbreaks of hantavirus. You have a plethora of medieval diseases that are on the rise in L.A.

There are a couple of causes for this. The first is that the homeless encampments that are scattered, not just in Skid Row,… pic.twitter.com/bam0xbUkPb

— Manhattan Institute (@ManhattanInst) August 18, 2026

Three deaths and 220 hospitalization cases in a single year mark a policy failure in a county that absolutely has the resources to prevent it. Encampments stayed in place. Rodenticides came off the shelf. The health department knew what was coming and clearly could not (or would not) stop it. State and local officials built, permitted, and, in some cases, legislated the conditions that allowed the rat population to multiply beneath the streets of one of the wealthiest cities in America.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 05:45

US To Send Hospital Ship Next Year To Peru To Help With Impact Of El Nino

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

The United States will send a military hospital ship to Peru’s Pacific coast next year to help the country cope with the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Plans to send the hospital ship USNS Comfort to the northern Pacific coast of Peru in February 2027 were confirmed by U.S. Ambassador to Peru Bernie Navarro on Aug. 19 during a press conference at Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) in Miami, Florida.

Appearing alongside Peruvian Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Espá, Navarro told reporters that “one of the biggest things the United States is doing is bringing the military vessel Comfort, which we are going to bring in February.”

The ambassador said that February is when they believe the problem with El Niño will peak.

Espá told reporters that officials were already starting to develop a road map.

“We are concerned, but we’re not just concerned; we’re taking action,” Espá said.

“That’s why we’re so grateful to the ambassador, because thanks to him, the day before yesterday we met at Southern Command with all the U.S. agencies that will be assisting us, along with civil society and the business sector, to develop our roadmap.”

Following the press conference, Navarro said in a post on X:

“The United States will stand with Peru in facing El Niño. With a strategy focused on prevention rather than reaction, we will set an example for regional cooperation.”

El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator that affects global weather patterns. According to meteorologists, it could soon equal or surpass the 1997 phenomenon, which caused damage from heat waves, heavy rains, floods, and forest fires.

Peru, which lies on the western coast of South America, has been subject to flooding this year as a result of the weather phenomenon.

Aid to South America

The planned deployment of USNS Comfort, which was already in Peru in 2018 and 2019, was announced in an earlier statement from the U.S. Embassy in Peru on Aug. 17 following the summit at SOUTHCOM.

The summit on disaster preparedness for El Niño was attended by the U.S. ambassador, Espá, SOUTHCOM, representatives from the U.S. and Peruvian governments, and individuals from academia and civil society.

The U.S. Embassy in Peru said in a statement that during the summit, Navarro highlighted that the United States has demonstrated its support for the South American country through its aid and assistance.

This includes the construction of 18 Regional Emergency Operations Centers; the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration training provided to its officials in emergency response and risk management; and scientific and medical cooperation, such as the upcoming arrival of the hospital ship.

The United States has also been sending increased humanitarian aid for earthquakes in Colombia and Venezuela.

SOUTHCOM said in an Aug. 17 post on X that U.S. assistance to Colombia for earthquake relief is ongoing.

“Today, a [U.S. Air Force] C-17 Globemaster III delivered more life-saving assistance and supplies from the [State Department’s] disaster response warehouse in Miami to Medellín for distribution to hard-hit communities in Colombia,” the command said.

“SOUTHCOM is actively supporting the [State Department-led] humanitarian response following the Aug. 10 earthquake in western Colombia. The United States stands in solidarity with the Colombian people during this crisis.”

Heavy Rain in Peru

Heavy rains attributed to El Niño caused flooding in Peru on Aug. 19, resulting in flooded homes, collapsed sewage services, and school closures in the capital, Lima.

Authorities also closed the main route to Machu Picchu, the ancient Inca citadel, due to the overflow of waterways.

There were also road closures from landslides in the southern regions ​of Arequipa and Moquegua.

Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori, who took office on July 28, said that tackling the impact of the weather phenomenon is a priority.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 05:00

Ukraine Corruption Scandal Deepens: 'Operation Forrest Gump' Shocks Zelensky Government With More Searches

Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,

Ukrainian anti-corruption services launched searches under codename "Operation Forrest Gump," targeting, among others, the deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. The move expands the ongoing anti-corruption investigation which has seen a number of top officials in Zelensky's cabinet flee to Israel shortly before police could raid their homes.

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) announced they were conducting a special operation involving a criminal organization led by a current and former member of parliament, with the participation of high-ranking officials from the Office of the President of Ukraine.

"NABU and SAPO are conducting a special operation aimed at exposing a criminal organization that operated under the leadership of a current and former member of the Ukrainian Parliament, with the participation of high-ranking officials of the Office of the President of Ukraine and other individuals. Details - coming soon," announced the anti-corruption services on Telegram.

The operation is codenamed "Forrest Gump," also referred to as Forest Gump. Ukrayinska Pravda sources and other media reported that NABU and SAPO are conducting searches as part of this special operation at premises belonging to MP Vadym Stolar, who was elected to parliament on behalf of the currently banned Opposition Platform - For Life party.

In addition, Iryna Mudra, deputy head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, is also targeted in the raids.

Stolar has confirmed the investigative actions at his home and stated he is fully cooperating without obstruction.

Additional figures linked by media and law-enforcement sources include former MP Maksym Mykytas, officials from the Ministry of Justice, and senior management of the state-owned Sense Bank including the chair of the board and supervisory board. Searches were also reported at the bank premises.

NABU has released excerpts of intercepted conversations.

Fragments reference "bags of money," discussions of registering assets or proceeds in the names of children, including high tuition costs, the "Forrest Gump" name itself in a context of concealing theft, and mentions of the Office of the President.

As EuroMaidan writes, "The operation carries a mocking name, Forest Gump, drawn from the suspects' own words. In a 47-second recording of intercepted conversations, one man ties the label to how the group allegedly hid money."

The suspect mocks that one of the co-conspirators used his children's own name to register the stolen money.

"We've got Saving Private Ryan, right? But only an idiot would register the theft of money - and their tuition on top of it - on their own children. That's why, Forest Gump," he said.

Ukrainian anti-corruption investigators reportedly chose the name "Forrest Gump" to mock these statements from their own criminal targets.

Other parts of the conversation reference cash and the presidential administration directly. "Well, there are four bags of money there," one voice says on the tape.

Another chimed in, saying: "If we do this, you can drive to the Office of the President yourselves. Believe me. I can see it."

Investigators allege the group gained effective control over Sense Bank around early June 2026.According to NABU/SAPO details released as part of the operation, the group organized money laundering of $3.5 million in cash (UAH 150 million).

The funds were introduced into legal circulation through accounts of shell companies and Sense Bank to post bail for one of the defendants in the earlier "Midas" case, which was linked to former Energy and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko.

Cash was reportedly delivered in tranches, processed via controlled entities, and partially directed toward the High Anti-Corruption Court bail account. Allegations include that Mudra was expected to help arrange the raising of these funds and that unidentified individuals from the President's Office tasked her with efforts related to bringing Sense Bank under greater control.

Investigators also seized a document described as an anti-crisis communications playbook outlining steps and messaging to shape public opinion around a Verkhovna Rada temporary investigative commission, framing it as an "audit, not attack" while shielding President Zelensky and his cabinet.

The probe has also documented alleged attempts to place controlled individuals in NABU and other law-enforcement bodies.

Incredibly, NABU has already posted these documents directly to Telegram.

Who is involved in the broader corruption scandal in Ukraine?

One of the main suspects in the related investigation is businessman Tymur Mindich. He is the co-owner of the Kwartal 95 production studio, which was founded and headed in the past by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Fearing arrest in the Energoatom affair (Operation Midas), Mindich fled to Israel. The Midas case centers on alleged large-scale kickbacks, approximately 10-15 percent of contract values, at the state nuclear company Energoatom, involving roughly $100 million in illicit funds, with the group using code names and cash deliveries.

During searches of Mindich's premises in November 2025, investigators found large quantities of cash and a golden toilet, along with a golden bidet, in one of the bathrooms of his opulent Kyiv apartment - details that became a public symbol of excess and were widely referred to as the "golden toilet scandal," which Remix News reported extensively on.

Mindich was not the only key figure to flee to Israel. His close associate, Oleksandr Tsukerman, also fled. The country does not extradite its citizens but Ukraine later imposed sanctions and issued international arrest warrants.

Among the suspects in the Midas scandal was the former head of Volodymyr Zelensky's office, Andriy Yermak. The former head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office has been charged under the Criminal Code of Ukraine with laundering property obtained as a result of a crime. The alleged laundering of UAH 460 million, about $10.5 million, allegedly occurred during the construction of the Dynastia luxury housing complex in Kozyn near Kyiv.

According to investigators, some of the funds used for the construction may have come from corruption activities at Energoatom. The court then issued an arrest warrant for Yermak.

It stipulated that he would be able to be released if he paid bail of 140 million hryvnias. In mid-May, Andriy Yermak was released from custody after posting bail.

The Forrest Gump operation is now being presented as connected to the wider Midas network of allegations involving high-level influence over strategic state enterprises, money laundering, and related luxury projects. Developments remain ongoing, with NABU indicating further details would be released.

Polish state media outlet TVP reported: "The latest operation could further intensify scrutiny of the political establishment as President Volodymyr Zelensky's government faces pressure to demonstrate progress in tackling corruption while Ukraine continues its war with Russia. It also poses a fresh headache for Zelenskyy after ousted defense chief Mykhailo Fedorov called for wartime elections in a bombshell statement late on Tuesday."

The question now remains: Is the noose tightening around Zelensky himself, or will he emerge from this massive corruption scandal of close associates squeaky clean?

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 02:00

Pennsylvania Dangles Permitting Carrot For Data Centers That Bring Their Own Power

Submitted by Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

Pennsylvania will give data center projects preferential permitting treatment if they commit to a set of power supply, environmental and cost-responsibility requirements under an executive order issued Tuesday by Gov. Josh Shapiro, D.

The state Department of Environmental Protection will develop the new review process. To receive a faster state permitting review, data center projects in Pennsylvania must source their electricity from new power supplies, including from growing amounts of firm clean power, according to the order, which affects proposals for projects with a peak demand of more than 25 MW.

The order “should further close the door” to the idea that independent power producers like Talen Energy, Vistra and PSEG Power will be able to sell power from their existing generating assets under long-term contracts to data centers in Pennsylvania, Jefferies equity analysts said in a note on Wednesday. However, Talen’s legacy deal to sell power from its majority-owned Susquehanna nuclear power plant to an Amazon data center appears safe, according to the note.

Shapiro’s executive order comes amid a wave of action by state and local governments aimed at setting limits on data center development. At least 81 cities and counties have moratoria on data center development, according to a National League of Cities database unveiled Wednesday.

Under the permitting framework set by the executive order, data center developers that sign a consent order and agreement requiring them to abide by the state’s infrastructure development standards unveiled in February will receive preferential treatment compared to those that don’t.

Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission Chairman Steve DeFrank speaks Aug. 18, 2026, at a data center-related executive order signing ceremony. Courtesy of Pennsylvania governor’s office

For example, applicants that execute a consent order and agreement will have their projects reviewed by DEP on a rolling basis, whereas for developers that don’t sign, the state won’t consider their applications until they have all local permits in hand as well as any needed water withdrawal or wastewater discharge authorizations.

“We have so much speculation in Pennsylvania — like, gold rush speculation on these data centers,” Katie Blume, political and legislative director for Conservation Voters of Pennsylvania, told Utility Dive in an interview. “A lot of this [order] is going to be weeding out those bad actors because they’re not going to want to spend five years in the permitting process.”

But Dan Diorio, executive vice president for state policy and government affairs for the Data Center Coalition, sounded a note of caution in an emailed statement.

“It’s important that rules are not changed midstream impacting ongoing investment in verified and responsible data center projects,” Diorio said. “Data centers take compliance and accountability seriously, building only where they are authorized to do so under local, state, and federal rules and regulations.”

The infrastructure development standards include requiring data centers to pay for “all costs caused in whole or in part by the interconnection, service, or load of a [data center] project, including any costs associated with energy and ancillary services, transmission, distribution, network upgrades.”

Besides requiring data centers to be supplied by new generating resources from the same local PJM Interconnection zone where the facilities are built, they must be supplied from growing amounts of firm clean energy such as solar, advanced nuclear and battery storage, Shapiro said when he signed the executive order.

The firm clean energy requirements ramp up from 10% on Jan. 1 to 14.5% three years later and 32% by Jan. 1, 2035.

The executive order directs the Pennsylvania DEP to expedite permitting for clean energy and storage facilities on brownfield sites. The DEP must also facilitate the use of advanced reconductoring and other advanced transmission technologies on existing transmission rights-of-way.

In prepared remarks, Shapiro pointed to the speed of data center development in the state, which he said has “seen an unacceptable number of speculative proposals ... many of them led by developers who have no regard for local communities.”

PPL Electric has about 20.7 GW of potential data center load with electric service agreements in Pennsylvania, according to an Aug. 7 investor presentation. FirstEnergy utilities in Pennsylvania have data center contracts totaling nearly 1 GW, the company said in a July 28 presentation.

It is unclear how those data center projects will be affected by the executive order, but slowing data center development could affect utility transmission spending in the state, the Jefferies analysts noted.

Exelon, FirstEnergy and PPL are “materially increasing their transmission investment with data center demand a key driver,” the analysts said. “If the pace of data center growth slows, we see downside pressure to the pace of transmission investments.”

Currently, data center-driven transmission costs are being shared with residential and other utility customers, they noted.

Shapiro’s executive order directed the state Office of Transformation and Opportunity to remove any existing data center project from the PA Permit Fast Track Program, established in 2024, and rescinded their eligibility for the program. It also barred state agencies from entering into confidential agreements with data center developers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 23:25

"Let's Downsize": Antifa Uses Instagram To Put 'Luigi-Style' Hit On Flock Camera CEO

Karlyn Borysenko, who describes herself as an anti-communist analyst and observer of the far-left, posted a screenshot of an Instagram post from an account called "3chordpolitics." The post could be interpreted as a targeted, implicitly violent communication directed at Garrett Langley, founder and CEO of Flock Safety.

With high confidence, the 3chordpolitics post deliberately invokes violence against CEOs. As Borysenko wrote on X, "Antifa on Instagram is issuing death threats to CEOs, referencing bullets and Luigi Mangione, and essentially using the platform to call for more CEO assassinations."

Antifa on Instagram is issuing death threats to CEOs, reference bullets and Luigi Mangione and essentially using the platform to call for more CEO assassination.

This was posted 20 minutes ago. pic.twitter.com/hchqfmVG5i

— Karlyn Borysenko, anti-communist cult leader (@DrKarlynB) August 19, 2026

Here are the threat indicators present in the post:

• CEO Garrett Langley is individually named and pictured.
• A black bar obscures his eyes, creating a targeting effect.
• Three bullets appear alongside a Luigi character, likely a coded reference to Luigi Mangione and the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
• The slogan "No CEO Left Behind" appears to imply hostility toward Langley and CEOs as a class.
• The caption "Let's downsize" functions as a double entendre, suggesting the physical elimination of a CEO.

The account's prior posts suggest it is aligned with the far-left, given its apparent sympathy for Luigi Mangione, calls to dox ICE agents, advocacy for work stoppages, and encouragement of rioting. These positions broadly reflect elements of both reformist socialism and far-left revolution.

Borysenko recently published a five-tiered "rainbow cake" depicting her view of the American left, ranging from establishment Democrats who favor incremental reform within capitalism to revolutionary socialists who seek to abolish the existing system and destroy the nation from within.

As a reminder, the DSA cult sits on the far-left.  

As of Thursday morning, Instagram had yet to remove the post. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 23:00

The All-Seeing Eye

Authored by Todd Hayen via OffGuardian,

What was once the paranoid whisper of conspiracy has become the marketed convenience of 'life logging' - yet beneath the promise of perfect memory lies the total erasure of privacy, turning every shrew into a unwitting performer on the surveillance stage.

(If you haven't read enough of my work to know what a "shrew" is, read this: Sheep and Shrew)

During a recent three-hour ramble with my sister - one of those wide-ranging, idea-sparking talkathons we've shared for years - the little recording device I had just bought, attached to my phone, quietly drank it all in. Every tangent on culture, politics, family, and the state of the world was captured, summarized, and later served back as a tidy slideshow of "highlights." It auto-suggested calendar entries, pulled up past chats on demand, and generally made itself indispensable.

For a moment, I felt the rush: This is the future. No more forgotten details, no more scrambling for notes. Pure magic.

I will disclose immediately that I have purchased several of these odd devices mostly out of curiosity, but also out of an attempt to record various "having fun moments" of my life (like a recent dog adventure to a local pond, and our three-day trip to New York City to see Swan Lake). I won't go into my personal experience (with the intentions just stated) out of fear it will bore you; ask in the comments if you would like to know.

Here I will make my general comments on what I feel the impact such devices will have on our human culture. What masquerades as personal empowerment is a profound archetypal shift toward total surveillance, eroding privacy, authenticity, and human freedom - normalizing the sheeple's willing submission while shrews must stay vigilant.

Woo-hoo, what else is new?

During my conversation with my sister, the shrew in me stirred almost immediately. That ancient archetype of the All-Seeing Eye - once reserved for gods, tyrants, or paranoid fantasies - had slipped into the room wearing the friendly face of convenience. What felt like an innocent companion was, in truth, a silent recorder turning private exchange into permanent data. And I had invited it in.

This is how the trap springs. Not with jackboots and cameras in every corner (though those exist too), but with sleek little devices marketed as extensions of ourselves. Wearable AI pins, smart glasses, neck discs - they promise perfect memory while quietly building the most intimate profile imaginable: where we go, what we say, who we say it to, and how we feel about it all. Street cameras and smartphone sensors already blanket the public square; these wearables drag the surveillance indoors, into our conversations, our homes, our unguarded moments with loved ones. The panopticon goes portable.

We've seen this pattern before. Remember when "just a phone" became a pocket tracker? Or how contact-tracing apps during the scamdemic morphed from "temporary emergency tools" into permanent fixtures in the biosecurity state? The same sleight of hand is at work here. Tech companies dangle the carrot - Never forget a name! Relive every precious moment! Let AI organize your chaos! - and the sheeple flock to it, bleating about how "empowering" it all feels. The sheep, yes, and at least one sheep-like shrew. Me.

Meanwhile, the other shrews (you) feel the water getting warmer. You are more aware than me that every logged conversation is fodder for training models, targeted ads, behavioural predictions, or worse - subpoenas, hacks, or authoritarian overreach. Deepfakes already erode trust in video evidence; add always-on personal recording, and alibis become meaningless, private truths become contestable, and authentic human connection withers under the gaze of the machine.

My sister and I laughed about it at first. Then the unease settled in. What if one of those "helpful" summaries gets shared without consent? What if the data shapes how others (or algorithms) perceive us? The archetype of the all-seeing eye doesn't just watch - it consumes. It flattens the rich, contradictory mess of human life into clean, marketable data points.

From a Jungian perspective, this is no mere gadget problem. It is the externalization of the Self's shadow - the watcher within projected onto silicon. Privacy is not just a legal right; it is the sacred space where the psyche breathes, where shadow integrates, where anima and animus dance unseen. Strip that away, and we become performers, constantly curating our words for an invisible audience. The sheepsters may not notice - they've grown accustomed to the slowly boiling pot. But the shrew feels the contraction of soul.

This is the latest chapter in the long war on autonomy waged primarily by the advocates of transhumanism and technoculture. Digital passports, social credit systems, vaccine mandates - each promised safety or convenience while tightening the noose. AI wearables complete the circle: they don't just monitor the body or the public square; they ingest the mind itself, turning inner dialogue into training data for the next generation of control.

We are not far from the logical endpoint - stylish glasses with always-on cameras, or worse, neural implants that record thoughts before they become words. The marketers will call it "seamless augmentation." The shrew calls it the end of anything resembling private life. But here we go.

Woo-hoo again, what fun!

Obviously, we have known about all this techno-joy for quite some time: science fiction novels, 50's SciFi movies, superhero comic books, Star Trek, Outer Limits and Battlestar Galactica TV series, among many other media enticements. All techno gadgets presented in these resources have been emblazoned into our feeble brains (not you, of course!), always looking for the next exciting and fun thing to engage with.

Why do we have to move back into the techno-less past in our effort to survive? Why can't we take this fun ride into a more convenient, more joyous, more exciting future with interesting "things" to fiddle with? Primarily because there is likely an evil intention behind it all. We can never forget the agenda, and one of the prime tools of manipulation the agenda thrives on is private information.

So, what do we do? Do we stop participating in this new science-fiction-turned-reality world? Do we just get the hell off the grid, and live in some backward fourth-world country drinking milk out of a coconut? That's one way to do it; another is to simply become more aware and conscious.

Awareness itself is resistance. Turn the All-Seeing Eye inward. Use these tools sparingly, consciously, and never without remembering what they truly cost. Talk with your pack. Document the unease. Keep the conversations that matter offline when you can.

The water is heating, my dear shrew. But we still have legs to jump - and voices to warn the others before the lid clamps shut for good.

Todd Hayen PhD is a registered psychotherapist practicing in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. He holds a PhD in depth psychotherapy and an MA in Consciousness Studies. He specializes in Jungian, archetypal, psychology. Todd also writes for his own substack, which you can read here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 22:35

Cost Of Living Remains Biggest Challenge Facing Americans

The war in Iran marked a significant setback in Americans' year-long battle with high prices.

While inflation has come down a long way from its 2021/2022 highs, when it peaked at 9 percent, it remains elevated at 3.4 percent.

More importantly though, as Statista's Felix Richter reports, people are still struggling to cope with the lasting effects of the inflation crisis.

According to a Statista Consumer Insights survey conducted between January and July 2026, 53 percent of U.S. adults said that the high cost of living was one of the biggest challenges they currently face – making it by far the most common answer ahead of mental and physical health at 26 percent each.

You will find more infographics at Statista

It is a common misconception that prices come down when inflation cools, when in reality a period of high inflation leaves a legacy of high prices.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. consumer prices have increased 26.7 percent since January 2021, with some categories seeing even steeper price increases than that.

Food prices are up 27.2 percent, rents have increased more than 30 percent and transportation prices are up 35 percent.

And yet, nominal wages have only grown 25.7 percent since January 2021, leaving many people worse off than they were five years ago.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 22:10

Hawaii Could Face Another Hurricane This Weekend

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Hawaii could face its second tropical storm or hurricane in a week as a low-pressure system was reported on Aug. 19 to be developing near the islands.

Another tropical storm is expected to develop in the Central Pacific as Hurricane Lala moves away from Hawaii on Aug. 19, 2026. National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center warned that the system was developing thunderstorms that had a 90 percent chance of organizing into a cyclone in the next 48 hours.

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and crosses into the Central Pacific,” the center advised.

“Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.”

As of 4:30 p.m. ET on Aug. 19, forecast models generally estimated the storm to remain offshore and pass well south of the archipelago, with the closest pass being on the southern point of the Big Island around Aug. 23.

Some models indicate that a pocket of high pressure will remain over the Big Island during this time.

If this storm develops into a tropical storm—that is, it organizes into a proper cyclone with sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph—it will become Tropical Storm Moke.

Meanwhile, residents across multiple islands continue to reel from the close pass of Hurricane Lala just one week ago.

The Big Island was hit with more than three feet of rain in some places, triggering catastrophic flooding and landslides that rendered highways impassable and washed away entire homes, particularly in the communities of Naalehu and Waiohinu.

Power outages, downed trees, rock slides, and severe winds also impacted the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Oahu, and Kauai over the previous weekend.

Major airports on Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island remained accessible and operational at some capacity on Aug. 16.

The governor closed all state and county offices as well as all schools and judiciary offices on Aug. 17 due to the damage the hurricane left behind.

Hawaiian Electric estimated that some customers in the southeast end of the Big Island could be without power through Labor Day weekend, with 95 percent expected to have power restored by Sept. 8, if the new storm development does not disrupt their work.

“We understand that it is frustrating and challenging to be without power,” the company said on X.

“Due to significant storm damage, customers in certain remote or severely damaged areas should prepare to be without power for much longer periods of time.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 17:00

The Harp Defense: Jennings Jockeys For SPOX After Leavitt Leaves

CNN political contributor and nationally syndicated radio host Scott Jennings just dropped a full-throated defense of Natalie Harp after reports surfaced that the conservative commentator is angling to replace outgoing White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, according to Politico's Playbook.

"I just don't think that's what you sign up for when you're someone like Natalie Harp, who never put her name on a ballot. She's not the White House press secretary. She's not a household name, and I just find it to be appalling," Jennings told Playbook. "Somebody needs to defend her honor."

Harp, the 35-year-old special assistant to President Donald Trump, has spent years flying under the radar as one of the president's most constant aides. Insiders call her the "human printer" because she packs a portable printer everywhere, churning out hard copies of news articles, social-media posts and anything else Trump wants to see on paper, according to the anti-Trump publication The Bulwark.

That low profile shattered this week when Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) name-dropped her at a Georgia campaign rally, accusing the Trump of preferring to "build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar" rather than fully attend to his official duties.

Harp first caught Trump's eye in 2019 when she publicly credited his Right to Try legislation with opening the door to experimental treatment for bone cancer, the New York Times reports.

Meanwhile, no decision was made and no offer extended an offer to Jennings to take the podium. A report from NOTUS on Wednesday paraphrased Trump as saying he is "not quite sold" on Jennings for the role. The report did note, though, that the president would prefer a man to succeed the outgoing Leavitt.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 15:00

Tonight: Trump To Appear On Turncoat Michael Cohen's Radio Show

Michael Cohen - Donald Trump's former 'fixer' who once vowed to take a bullet for him, only to flip after he was raided by the FBI in 2018 in the Stormy Daniels hush-money probe - says that Trump has agreed to appear on his New York City-area radio show this week.

Cohen wrote on X on Wednesday to confirm that Trump would appear on “the radio show I’m hosting tomorrow night at 6pm and the rest on my Sunday” show on 770 WABC Radio.

It’s not for the podcast…it’s the radio show I’m hosting tomorrow night at 6pm and the rest on my Sunday 5pm est radio show on 77WABC radio called “When You Know…You Know”. https://t.co/ap68IAlrcJ

— Michael Cohen (@MichaelCohen212) August 19, 2026

Cohen told CBS that this will be "the first public conversation between the president and myself in eight years," adding "You know, there have been private conversations that have, of course, been reported. But this is the first public conversation."

As the Epoch Times notes further, Cohen also linked to a Substack article that served as a recollection of the public feud the two had, which included Cohen testifying against Trump in his New York City criminal trial in 2024. Cohen served as one of the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office’s star witnesses, alleging the president was intensely involved in a plan to pay off a former adult film actress during his 2016 campaign.

“Eight years of silence. Hundreds of thousands of headlines. Fifteen years of history fractured in an instant, and somehow, against almost every expectation, here we are. Since yesterday’s announcement broke, my inbox has once again become a digital battlefield. It has been flooded with hatred, anger, disbelief, and some of the most spectacularly vicious things imaginable,” Cohen wrote.

He later wrote that “apparently, quite a few are ready to personally escort me to the gates of hell for daring to share a microphone with Donald Trump again.”

Speaking to Politico on Wednesday, Cohen answered a question about whether he would seek a presidential pardon.

Cohen in 2018 was sentenced to three years in federal prison after pleading guilty to campaign finance violations, tax evasion, bank fraud, and lying to Congress. He completed his sentence and supervision requirements in November 2021.

“We’ll see,” he said in response. “Will I make that request down the road? I don’t know. Maybe maybe not.”

Referring to the upcoming interview, Cohen told the outlet that listeners will be “interested to hear two individuals that were friends for a decade and a half who have not publicly spoken in eight years” talk about their past.

Trump, who was convicted in a jury trial on 34 counts of falsifying business records, denied the charges against him and pleaded not guilty. He has long said that the Manhattan district attorney’s case and cases that were brought against him in Georgia, Washington, and Florida were a “political witch hunt.”

The judge who oversaw the case, Juan Merchan, sentenced Trump to an unconditional discharge in January 2025, coming about two months after Trump won reelection.

In his first term, Trump often criticized Cohen in response to claims his former lawyer made about him, writing on X in 2018: “If anyone is looking for a good lawyer, I would strongly suggest that you don’t retain the services of Michael Cohen!” Cohen would often appear on then-MSNBC and CNN to criticize the first Trump term.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 14:40

Has Iranian Crude Become Irrelevant To Global Oil Supply?

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova Of OilPrice.com

The reinstated U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports is effectively preventing Tehran from exporting oil, making Iran’s oil volumes irrelevant for global oil market balances, Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC on Thursday.

The U.S. brought back the blockade in the Gulf of Oman aimed at preventing Iran from exporting its oil after the ‘deal to make a deal’ collapsed in July and hostilities in the Middle East returned.

The blockade, which the U.S. had lifted for about three weeks while negotiations were being held in June and early July, is now back and effectively blockading Iran’s oil exports.

“Kharg Island is not exporting anymore,” McNally told CNBC, referring to Iran’s key oil export terminal that handles more than 90% of all shipments.

“Iran has stopped being a factor for the oil market in terms of its exports because of the blockade,” McNally said.

Iran may have been removed from the real barrels count, but the crude oil futures market is underpricing geopolitical risk, the energy expert told CNBC.

“The refined products are telling the story” of how crude futures may be underpricing the tightness in the global oil market, according to McNally.

In addition, “the market has become a little less optimistic about near-term and sustainable reopening of Hormuz,” he said, adding that the longer the disruption goes on, “the risk is that crude will follow products higher.”

Brent Crude prices topped $91 per barrel this week amid heightened security concerns for shipping in the Middle East and fading hopes that the U.S. and Iran could return to negotiations.

The refined product market, however, is already flashing severe tightness, with the diesel crack spread hitting record highs in both the United States and Europe this week.

The diesel crack spread in the United States hit triple digits this week, for the first time ever. The premium over crude prices jumped to as high as $102 per barrel on Monday, before easing slightly to about $100 a barrel on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 14:00

"Significant" Tornado Threat Incoming For DC To Baltimore To Philadelphia

Senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci of private weather forecaster MyRadarWX is monitoring the potential for isolated tornadoes along the Interstate 95 corridor, from areas north of Washington, D.C., through Baltimore and Wilmington, Delaware, and into the Philadelphia metro area.

Tornadoes are not unheard of in the Mid-Atlantic, but a potential setup later this afternoon capable of producing multiple tornadoes across a large swath of Maryland, Delaware, and southeastern Pennsylvania would be unusual.

"Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line. There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly," Cappucci wrote on X earlier this morning. 

Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line.

There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly. pic.twitter.com/9grxM09gXd

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) August 20, 2026

MyRadarWX posted for the Mid-Atlantic region: 

We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95. While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two. Subtle influences, like the bay breeze, may provide an additional source of low-level spin. The main wildcard is how quickly a southward-advancing cold front moves. Too quick, and it could undercut storms/sweep them into a non-tornadic line. A bit slower, however, and easterly surface winds ahead of it could bolster low-level spin, increasing tornado risk.

We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95.

While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two.

Subtle… pic.twitter.com/lQPRr2pQxt

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 20, 2026

MyRadarWX's timing of the incoming storm for the region, with a possible "isolated EF2+ 'significant' tornado," is for Thursday afternoon. 

D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado. That would be predicated on the formation of a supercell or two (rotating thunderstorms) ahead of an eventual squall line. The greatest chance is in northeastern Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey or the northern Delmarva. Low probability, but high impact if it happens.

D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado.

That would be predicated on… pic.twitter.com/Cm591DsvDu

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 20, 2026

The National Weather Service tornado scale states that an EF2 tornado can tear roofs off homes, destroy mobile homes, snap large trees, and turn debris into dangerous projectiles. MyRadarWX's risk forecast is not an official warning from the National Weather Service.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 13:40