This week, I speak with Lawrence Calcano, chairman and CEO of iCapital, about how he helped build the company into one of the globe’s leading platforms for alternative investments for wealth managers, advisors, bankers, and other financial professionals.

On iCapital’s fintech platform is over a $1 trillion in client funds across 2,100 funds managed on behalf of 118,000 financial professionals.

A transcript of our conversation is available here Sunday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Joe McLean, Managing Partner at MAI Capital Management, where he leads firm’s Sports & Entertainment division, serving 100s of pro athletes/entertainers across NBA, NFL, MLB, PGA + NASCAR. His path to finance runs directly through the locker room as a 4-year NCAA Division 1 player at U of Arizona. Dubbed the athlete’s “Money Whisperer” by the New York Times, he is known for his non-negotiable 60% savings mandate for clients.

 

 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

 

The post MiB: Lawrence Calcano, iCapital CEO appeared first on The Big Picture.

The post Purdue Pharma Bites the Dust: Can We Learn Anything? appeared first on CEPR.

USSS Chief Says Hilton Site Was 'Set Up Perfectly,' Critics Disagree

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

The head of the U.S. Secret Service is defending security arrangements at last Saturday’s White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, saying he would not change a thing about the security plan, even as questions continue to swirl around the shooting and his leadership of the agency.

“The site was set up perfectly, I will tell you I would not change the site again,” Secret Service Director Sean Curran told Fox News host Will Cain Thursday.

Curran said one agent was shot at “point-blank range” by suspect Cole Tomas Allen as he dashed through a security checkpoint inside the Washington Hilton hotel, where President Donald Trump and thousands of guests had gathered for the annual dinner.

“Our officer heroically returned fire while being shot [at] point blank range in the chest with a shotgun,” Curran asserted. “[The officer] was able to get off five shots. It’s great training.”

The suspect was not struck by the agent’s return fire, Curran explained, alleging that Allen, 31, fell after hitting his knee and was subdued by other federal agents near the top of the stairs from the ballroom where Trump, the first lady, and top administration officials were dining.

Curran tried to stress that the actual place where Allen fell and was subdued was nearly 120 yards away from the podium where Trump and Vice President JD Vance were seated, along with top officers of the White House Press Corps Association. Curran argued that 120 yards is “a long distance to get to.” But Allen was just yards away from a short stairwell leading to a jam-packed ballroom filled with 2,600 guests, including numerous congressional leaders and Cabinet officials.

“If he had gotten through those ballroom doors, it would have been a catastrophic,” Rich Staropoli, a former Secret Service agent who protected four presidents and served as a senior official in the Department of Homeland Security, told RealClearPolitics.

Former agents and other sources in the Secret Service community also noted that Thomas Crooks, the would-be assassin who nearly killed Trump in July 2024 at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, was shooting from a distance of roughly 130 to 150 yards away from Trump and managed to strike his ear before a Secret Service counter-sniper shot and killed him.

Curran also pushed back on reports that the officer who was shot and saved by his bullet-proof vest may have been hit by friendly fire. He pointedly added that agents “who weren’t in the game when they were agents” were criticizing the security plan and execution.

On Thursday Trump said Secret Service leadership has relayed the same message to him.

“They said it wasn’t friendly fire. It wasn’t us,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

Curran also repeated the same assertion – that this was not a friendly-fire incident – to a lawmaker in response to questions during a congressional briefing convened by Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, a source familiar with the briefing told RCP.

His account, however, differs in some respects from court documents filed Wednesday by prosecutors. Those filings reference an officer firing five times but make no mention of that officer or any other being shot, and do not accuse the suspect of aiming at or striking a Secret Service officer.

Released Video Raises New Questions, Criticism

Newly released surveillance footage from U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro shows Allen methodically casing the Washington Hilton in the hours before the attack – strolling hallways, peering into doorways, and scoping potential escape routes the day before the shooting.

On Friday, Allen appeared unhurried, even relaxed. He wandered through the hotel, at one point stopping to chat and smile with a Hilton staffer and later spending time in the hotel gym.

Saturday night's video, however, reveals a more sinister story. Allen is seen lurking behind a doorway in the upper left of the frame – and in what may be one of the most striking images in the footage, a Secret Service dog appears to zero in on him. The handler, however, pulls the animal back.

Moments later, Allen emerges with a shotgun, fires at least one round, and sprints past agents, apparently tripping and falling directly into the hands of responding officers – somehow escaping the hail of gunfire directed at him unscathed.

The video has revived concerns about the night’s security and whether the Secret Service was up to the task of preventing an attack. Critics maintain that the agency was simply lucky that Allen was working alone and that the security team seemed unprepared for a more professional organized threat with multiple assailants.

After viewing the video, Fox News’ Laura Ingraham also questioned Curran’s “set-up perfectly” narrative.

“Perimeter maintenance? Officers standing around, a few seemingly run away and falling into each other, K-9 sense not followed, officers only noticing Allen holding long gun when he was already through the magnetometer,” she said. “Thank God only one shooter and no bombs.”

Conservative commentator Clay Travis was equally unsparing.

“10 of the 11 guards weren’t paying attention when the guy with the gun came running at them attempting to kill the president,” he remarked on X.com. “And the one guy who was watching fired multiple shots from this close without hitting the would be assassin.”

Three federal officers lined up against the back wall appear to be Transportation Security Administration employees who likely helped with bag screening, according to federal law enforcement sources. When they saw Allen running with a shotgun, the trio crunched down and crawled around the corner.

Earlier in the day, reporters asked Trump if he believed he needs to wear a bulletproof vest to protect himself. Trump appeared reluctant. “I don’t know if I can handle looking 20 pounds heavier,” he quipped, adding more seriously: “I guess it’s something you consider. In one way you don’t like to do it because you’re giving in to a bad element.”

Trump has stood by the Secret Service leadership, even praising the agents who subdued Allen for doing an “outstanding job.” But the White House also released a statement Monday stating that Chief of Staff Susie Wiles would meet with Secret Service and Department of Homeland Security leaders this week to review security protocols for major events involving Trump.

“We’re always looking for ways to improve security,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. “I think if you just sit here and say everything is perfect all the time, â??that’s not a good way to operate.”

Several former and current Secret Service agents contacted for this article said suggestions that Trump should be forced to take the extreme measure of wearing a bullet-proof vest are only being considered because the agency failed in securing the White House Correspondents’ dinner. The security plan appeared very similar to past dinners when then-Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama attended, but was completely outdated for the obvious high threat-level Trump currently faces after two assassination attempts and explicit threats from Iranian officials, the sources argued.

“The Secret Service got incredibly lucky again, and luck isn’t a security strategy,” Staropoli said. “What if it had been multiple attackers or an explosive device, so how do you counter that? The obvious nature of the deficiencies here is ridiculous.”

Staropoli argues that Curran took a “big gamble unnecessarily” in allowing Trump, Vance, and many other Cabinet secretaries to attend the dinner.

He and other sources in the Secret Service community interviewed for this article argued that Curran should have informed Trump that the Washington Hilton was not a suitable venue. Instead, the agents in charge of devising the security plan for the night left many aspects of the hotel unsecured, including the staircase Allen used to access the checkpoint.

The close call that terrorized the entire ballroom is spurring more questions about Curran’s leadership, including whether his decisions to remove experienced senior leaders from both the Presidential Protective Division and its counterpart that secures the vice president contributed to poor planning for the dinner.

For decades, leadership of the Presidential Protective Division and Vice Presidential Protective Division was the capstone of a career trajectory that ran through the Senior Executive Service – the federal government’s elite management corps. Agents who rose to Special Agent in Charge or Deputy Special Agent in Charge of these divisions had typically accumulated years of varied leadership assignments, accumulated SES credentials, and been vetted through a rigorous internal pipeline.

Under Curran, multiple sources say, that pipeline has been dismantled. The director changed internal requirements so that SES experience is no longer mandatory for those top leadership roles – clearing the way for the promotion of agents who had not gone through the SES pipeline.

The starkest example, sources say, is the forced departure of David Yamin, who served as the last SES-credentialed Deputy Special Agent in Charge on PPD. Sources describe Yamin’s exit as effectively engineered by Curran to open the position for Matt Piant, a Curran loyalist, and others in the director’s trusted circle.

“David Yamin was exactly the kind of person you want in that role,” said one veteran agent. “SES, deep experience, knows how to run a detail. He didn’t leave voluntarily.”

The concern is not merely bureaucratic. Senior agents say the leadership gaps may have contributed to operational missteps, including the reported use of an outdated security model for the WHCA event at the Washington Hilton.

Curran Gave Himself and His Friends ‘Valor Awards’

In late March, Curran made waves across the agency by giving himself and several of his friends and senior Secret Service officials he placed in key leadership roles “valor awards,” announced through email to all employees of the Secret Service. The valor awards are just some of those the director designates each year while others include a Life-Saving Award for agents and officers who perform heroic actions on or off duty.

Agency employees are nominated for the awards by peers and supervisors, but the director has the final say. A source familiar with this year’s process said Piant nominated Curran for the award. Despite the failures that nearly resulted in Trump’s assassination at the Butler rally, Curran also gave Piant the award, along with all of the agents who helped Trump off the stage after he was shot in the ear, along with two counter-assault team members who worked the event.

Butler, the Iranian Threat, and a Junior Staffer’s Demand

Another illustration of what critics describe as a leadership culture afraid to say no to Trump’s team dates back to the Butler rally.

According to multiple Secret Service sources familiar with the security planning for Butler, a junior Trump campaign official raised an objection: The campaign did not want farm equipment visible in the camera shot behind the stage. The Secret Service, these sources say, had positioned that equipment in part because of intelligence indicating the potential of a long-range shooter, possibly of Iranian origin, in Butler.

Curran, sources say, agreed to remove the farm equipment – eliminating a line-of-sight barrier – at the request of a campaign aide, despite having been briefed on the threat.

“A director who will tell the president what he needs to hear, who will hold the line on a security call, is the whole job,” said one former senior DHS official. “That moment in Butler should have been a line in the sand. It wasn’t.”

The gunman at Butler fired from an unsecured rooftop with a direct line of sight to the stage.

Two months after Trump was nearly killed at Butler, a Secret Service agent discovered would-be assassin Ryan Routh armed and hiding in the bushes on the perimeter of a Florida golf course with his rifle pointing at Trump. The agent fired several rounds that didn’t hit Routh, who was later stopped and arrested while driving on the interstate.

Neither Curran nor Piant or any other GS-15 level agent was assigned to lead the detail that day. (GS-15 is the highest rung of the federal government’s pay scale before an employee enters the SES level.

“Curran has a pattern of being complacent and taking care of his buddies instead of doing the right thing,” a source in the Secret Service community told RCP.

The Secret Service did not respond to a repeated queries from RCP this week.

No Accountability After Two Attempts

Despite two assassination attempts on Trump – Butler in July and his golf course in September – no one in the Secret Service has been held accountable for the security lapses. Those involved in failures received 11- to 42-day suspensions. As the detail leader, Curran himself signed off on the flawed security plan, according to multiple Secret Service sources.

Meanwhile, Curran promoted two supervisors who oversaw the Butler detail, Nick Menster and Nick Olszerski. Menster was a supervisor for the Butler rally on the Donald Trump detail, while Olszewski was an inspector acting in a supervisory role.

After Butler, Menster became the No. 2 on the Lara and Eric Trump detail, and Olszewski was put in charge of the Inspections Division, which falls under the Office of Professional Responsibility and is charged with maintaining accountability and integrity for all Secret Service operations. Earlier this year, Olszewski was promoted to the leadership post of assistant director of the Office of Professional Responsibility, sources told RCP.

Some rank-and-file agents have been incensed over the decision not to hold these supervisors accountable, further sinking already low morale and exacerbating retention problems throughout the agency.

A Recruitment Crisis – and a Standards Crisis

Behind the leadership turmoil is a broader personnel crisis. Recruitment bonuses, which once ranged from $45,000 to $50,000, have been increased to $75,000 in an attempt to hasten recruitment and hiring. The agency also utilizes retention bonuses, often up to 10%-25% of base salary, but senior agents are still leaving in significant numbers, sources say, exhausted by the dysfunction and diminished by an agency culture in free fall.

The Secret Service’s use of TSA agents to supplement screening is a telltale sign that the agency is undermanned, according to a Secret Service agent who recently left. In the past, TSA screeners only joined Secret Service security screenings during times that required extreme manpower needs, such as during the campaign conventions. 

The rush to fill the ranks, some say, has come with an erosion of standards – a dangerous combination for an agency whose core mission is protecting the most targeted person on earth.

A Cascade of Misconduct

Curran’s leadership tenure has coincided with a striking accumulation of scandals, mishaps, and security lapses, many of which RCP first reported.

• In recent weeks, Secret Service agent Tristan William Hale was charged criminally with sending explicit material to a 16-year-old Pennsylvania girl.
• Two agents became ensnared in separate sex-related scandals within the span of two months, including one involving an OnlyFans account and another in a recorded honey-pot sting operation organized by James O'Keefe.
• In late March, a U.S. Secret Service special agent assigned to former first lady Jill Biden’s protective detail accidentally shot himself in the leg at Philadelphia International Airport. 
• Special Agent Miyo Perez – who was responsible for Butler site security – secretly married a foreign national suspected of being an undocumented immigrant, without informing the agency until January.
• In January, a man allegedly broke windows at Vance’s Ohio home while Vance and his family were in D.C., but his parents were on the property. Secret Service agents were parked outside when it occurred and didn’t stop him.
• Two female Uniformed Division officers were recorded in a physical altercation outside former President Obama’s Washington, D.C., residence last year.
• Last autumn, an overweight male agent fell asleep at a public security post at the United Nations, then left his M4 rifle in a folding chair while he went to the restroom.
• Uniformed Division officers failed to detect a Glock handgun during a screening at Trump’s Virginia golf course.
• A Secret Service agent publicly celebrated the assassination of Charlie Kirk on Facebook, writing on Facebook that it was “karma.”
• Richard Giuditta,the agency’s chief counsel, was forced to resign following a road rage incident in which he impersonated a federal officer.
• Chief of Staff Tyler McQuiston admitted an unauthorized visitor – a former Citigroup colleague – to the White House for a meeting the visitor had not been cleared to attend. In an unprecedented response, the White House urged the Secret Service to ensure it never happened again. A top official decided to revoke the security badges of numerous top Secret Service officials to limit their own agency’s access to the building they are charged with protecting.
• Secret Service agents failed to prevent Code Pink protesters from aggressively confronting Trump and senior Cabinet members at a Washington restaurant.
• The FBI late last year raided a Secret Service agent’s home in connection with an alleged large-scale tax fraud scheme, potentially involving dozens of additional agents.
• A newly sworn Secret Service agent was charged with killing his brother over the Christmas holiday.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/02/2026 - 09:20

Spirit Airlines 'Bites The Dust' As All Flights Canceled; Trump Admin To Provide 'Relief' To Customers, Workers

The collapse of bankrupt Spirit Airlines is now official.

After several failed attempts by the Trump administration to engineer a rescue package, including a proposed $500 million financing deal that could have left the U.S. government with control of up to 90% of the budget carrier, negotiations broke down late this week.

By Saturday morning, Spirit had begun winding down operations, with all flights canceled and the carrier entering liquidation mode.

The outcome marks the final flight for the budget airline, crushed by years of operational stress, failed merger attempts, mounting debt, and a brutal jet-fuel price shock that derailed its efforts to emerge from bankruptcy this summer.

Well… oops https://t.co/Ahv3e2M8vU

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 1, 2026

The Trump administration was willing to explore an extraordinary state-backed rescue to save nearly 7,500 jobs.

Now, however, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has announced "ACTION to bring relief to Spirit customers and its workforce." This will include other airlines (United, Delta, JetBlue & Southwest) agreeing to cap ticket prices for Spirit customers who have been left in the lurch, reduced fares on 'high-volume Spirit routes", while American Airlines and United "are creating microsites for Spirit employees looking to continue a career in aviation."

In coordination with our airline partners, we’re taking ACTION to bring relief to Spirit customers and its workforce.

From capped ticket prices for flyers who need to rebook to employees looking for job opportunities, there’s a lot of information you should be aware of.…

— Secretary Sean Duffy (@SecDuffy) May 2, 2026

Spirit's statement about winding down operations:

It is with great disappointment that Spirit Airlines has started winding down its global operations, effective immediately. All flights have been cancelled, and customer service is no longer available. While we are not able to help rebook your flight on another airline, we will automatically process refunds for any flights purchased through Spirit with a credit or debit card to the original form of payment. We are proud of the impact of our ultra-low-cost model on the industry for the last 33 years and had hoped to serve our Guests for many years to come.

pic.twitter.com/Wz3ilRHD2z

— Spirit Airlines (@SpiritAirlines) May 2, 2026

Polymarket odds:

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

//--> //--> US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?
Yes 16% · No 84%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?

Very easy money

SPIRIT AIRLINES STARTS ORDERLY WIND-DOWN OF OPERATIONS https://t.co/PAtaxmG5gv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 2, 2026

Even as Spirit begins winding down operations, President Trump said Friday that he will "have something on Spirit today or tomorrow."

What that means at this stage is anyone's guess, especially with rescue talks reportedly dead and the airline already moving into full shutdown mode.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/02/2026 - 08:45

China's Foreign Minister To Rubio: Taiwan Is 'Biggest Risk Factor' In US-China Relations

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and told him that the issue of Taiwan is the"biggest risk factor" in relations between Washington and Beijing, Chinese media has reported.

"The Taiwan issue concerns China’s core interests and is the biggest risk factor in China-US relations," Wang said, according to The South China Morning Post, which cited China’s CCTV broadcaster.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (Chinese Foreign Ministry photo)

"The US side should honor its commitments, make the right choice, open up new avenues for China-US cooperation, and do its part to promote world peace," Wang added.

The call comes after Taiwan’s government announced it had signed contracts with the US for about $6.6 billion in arms, including a nearly $4 billion sale of HIMARS rocket systems.

The contracts are a partial fulfillment of a massive $11 billion weapons package that the Trump administration approved in December, a number that represents more arms deals than were approved during the entire Biden administration.

Taipei Times has noted that "The HIMARS can be equipped with either a pod of six 227mm rockets or a single Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has a range of up to 300km (186 miles)."

China reacted strongly when the US approved the series of weapons deals, launching major military drills around Taiwan simulating a blockade. Beijing first launched such drills in August 2022 in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island.

Wang’s warning to Rubio reflects a position China has repeatedly stated to the US in recent years, that Taiwan is the first "red line" in US-China relations.

The two diplomats also discussed President Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for mid-May.

Wang said that the US and China "must safeguard the hard-won stability and make thorough preparations for the coming high-level engagements."

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/02/2026 - 08:10

Ferrari Hybrid Values Sink As Buyers Chase V8s And V12s

Goldman's Ferrari Residual Value Index shows that used Ferrari listing prices remained under pressure in April, down 3.4% year over year. However, analysts noted signs of "stabilization and partial improvements" after a weak second half of 2025.

One notable takeaway from analyst Christian Frenes: Ferrari hybrids are depreciating far faster than their petrol-powered counterparts, suggesting buyers still prefer V-8s and V-12s combustion-engine models. In other words, the used market is sending a very clear signal to Ferrari that its wealthy customer base is not sold on the hybrid era.

The chart below shows a clear divide in the Ferrari market: older, combustion models are holding their value much better than newer hybrid models.

The biggest winners versus the original retail price are:

• 812 GTS: up about 29.8%

• F8 Spider: up about 25.5%

• 488 Spider: up about 15.7%

• Ferrari Roma Spider: up about 14.3%

• SF90 Spider: up about 2.8%

The laggards are mostly newer hybrid or less-favored models:

• 296 GTS: down about 1.4%

• 296 GTB: down about 7.0%

• Ferrari Roma: down about 9.8%

• Ferrari Portofino: down about 11.2%

• SF90 Stradale: down about 12.2%

The next chart shows that values deteriorated across most model lines over the past year, even for models still trading at a premium to retail. The best-performing cars, like the 812 GTS and F8 Spider, have come off their highs but remain well above their original sticker prices. Meanwhile, hybrid models such as the 296 GTB/GTS and SF90 Stradale have slipped below their original retail prices.

The big takeaway from Goldman is that Ferrari's used-car market is stabilizing, but wealthy customers still prefer V8 and V12 combustion models and continue to shun new hybrids.

Professional subscribers can read the full GS Ferrari Tracker note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/02/2026 - 07:35

Syrian Gets Just Six Months In Jail For Raping 13-Year-Old Girl After Court Cites His Low IQ

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A 21-year-old Syrian man convicted of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed will serve just six months in prison after a court cited his low IQ, limited development, and a recent change in Norwegian sentencing law.

Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found guilty by Nord-Troms and Senja District Court on March 31 in relation to the rape that occurred during the night of Sept. 7, 2024, near the Harbour Terminal in Tromso.

As reported by Norwegian news outlet Document, the teen victim had left her home during the night and gone into the city center. At the Harbour Terminal, she encountered Al-Yousef and another man. The court said there was little conversation because the defendant spoke only Arabic.

The court found that Al-Yousef first assaulted the girl on a bench near the Edge Hotel before the abuse continued in a covered bicycle parking area belonging to the Harbour Terminal. He also attempted vaginal intercourse, but the judgment said he did not succeed because the victim did not want to.

Al-Yousef, who arrived in Norway from Syria in 2023, initially denied ever meeting the girl and denied being the person seen in surveillance images. He later admitted meeting and kissing her, but continued to deny sexual activity or entering the bicycle area.

Police found semen on the asphalt at the scene, and DNA testing linked it to Al-Yousef. The court rejected his defense, noting it was entirely lacking in credibility.

The court also found that Al-Yousef should have understood the girl was underage. The victim had said she was born in 2008, while a witness said she appeared visibly young and childlike. In a police interview, Al-Yousef himself said she looked small and around the same age as his younger sister, who was born in 2010.

However, the sentence was reduced after forensic psychiatric experts found that he had a mild intellectual disability. One assessment estimated his IQ at 41, although a later report put it in the range of 64 to 75.

The court treated his condition as a mitigating factor and said that, despite being 19 years and 8 months old at the time of the offense, his developmental level could be considered comparable to that of the 13-year-old victim.

The judgment, cited by Utenfilter, said, “In mitigation, the court finds that it must be emphasized that the defendant is most likely no further along in development than the victim, and that he appears to have a reduced understanding of reality.”

The case was also affected by a Norwegian legal change that entered into force last July, when the minimum sentence for rape of children under 14 was repealed. Previously, such cases carried a minimum sentence of three years in prison.

The court described the abuse as degrading and clearly exploitative, noting that it took place outdoors in public after the defendant and victim had met only a short time earlier. It nevertheless set a starting point of two years in prison before reducing the effective sentence.

After deductions for Al-Yousef’s low level of development and the age of the case, one year and six months of the sentence was made conditional with a three-year probation period. As a result, he will serve six months in prison.

The victim was awarded 280,000 Norwegian kroner (€25,700) in compensation for damages. The court said that although the girl had reportedly not described the incident as especially burdensome, she was young and such events could affect her later in life.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/02/2026 - 07:00

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• The Un-Fuckening: Stop talking about AI like this: Stop it with the rageposting. Stop it with the performative fearmongering. Stop behaving like little brats getting a high from scaring each other in the locker room, desperate to prove they belong. There is no shortage of voices predicting some version of social collapse. Their vision of the future somehow always involves most people getting left behind. (Dadalogue)

•  The Strait of Hormuz is today’s energy chokepoint. China is tomorrow’s.: A Big Think piece arguing the geographic chokepoints that matter for energy security are shifting east. As the global economy moves beyond oil, the strategic importance of the world’s most critical hydrocarbon chokepoint is likely to decline rapidly. (Big Think)

• The 30 Greatest Living American Songwriters: The NYT Magazine’s definitive ranking — guaranteed to start arguments, end friendships, and generate more heat than light. That’s the point. (New York Times)

• The Old Guard: Confronting America’s gerontocratic crisis: Between 1960 and 1990, the median age of members of Congress was in the early fifties. In the three decades that followed, the median surpassed sixty. Among the effects of this trend has been the on-­the-­job senility or death (or both) of those who govern us. (Harper’s Magazine)

• 11 Discoveries That Changed My Worldview: Have you ever taken a pause and considered the events, learnings, and forks in the road that have constructed and built your current worldview? (The Great Simplification)

• The Social Edge of Intelligence: An argument that what we call ‘intelligence’ is mostly social cognition wearing a lab coat. Worth a read if you think IQ debates miss the point. AI doesn’t really “think.” Rather, it remembers how we thought together. And we’re about to stop giving it anything worth remembering. (The Ideas Letter)

•  U.S. Mint Buys Drug Cartel Gold and Sells It as ‘American’: A jaw-dropping investigation into how cartel-laundered Colombian gold ends up in U.S. coins. The supply chain rinses cleaner than the money. As prices for the precious metal soar, the industry’s guardrails have broken down. (New York Times)

•  What Can We Gain by Losing Infinity?: Mathematicians are quietly exploring physics without infinities — and finding the framework holds up. A satisfying primer on a deep idea. Ultrafinitism, a philosophy that rejects the infinite, has long been dismissed as mathematical heresy. But it is also producing new insights in math and beyond. (Quanta Magazine)

•  An Oral History of the Harvard Lampoon, the College Magazine That Remade Comedy: A look back at the 150-year-old college humor magazine whose alums went on to write Conan, SNL, The Simpsons, and a generation’s worth of American comedy. (Washington Post)

• What to Watch For at the 2026 Kentucky Derby: We found the 5 most important rules of thumb when trying to figure out which horse will wear the roses. (Neil’s Substack)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Lawrence Calcano, CEO and Chairman of iCapital, The firm is a fintech platform built to be the OS for alternative investments and complex products for financial advisors, wealth managers, and banks. The firm has over $1.2 trillion in active global assets on platform,  across 2,455 funds used by 123,ooo financial professionals.

 

SpaceX Is Going Public. Why a Tesla Merger Could Be Musk’s Real Endgame

Source: Barron’s

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Mills Drops Out In Maine Governor's Race As Oysterman With Nazi Tattoo Becomes Democratic Frontrunner

Maine Gov. Janet Mills suspended her U.S. Senate campaign Thursday morning, citing a lack of financial resources. That's the official explanation. The more accurate one is that the polls showed her trailing badly to Graham Platner, an oysterman from coastal Maine with no electoral experience. 

Mills had every structural advantage working for her: she’d already won a statewide election, had name identification, and the support of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The writing was on the wall for weeks, but Mills’s exit from the race was her concession that all the momentum on the Democratic side was for Platner. 

Platner had long lapped Mills in polling and fundraising, and she'd stopped running television ads weeks earlier. Which means Platner will be the party's nominee against Sen. Susan Collins in one of the most consequential Senate races of the 2026 cycle.

In 2007, Graham Platner got a Nazi Totenkopf tattoo on his chest. He kept it there for roughly 18 years. He claims he didn't know what the symbol meant for nearly two decades. But there is significant evidence that he did, and that it was intentional. Platner amplified a social media post from Stew Peters, a neo-Nazi radio host the Anti-Defamation League has called "a prolific antisemite" who blames "'the Jews' for everything he believes is wrong with society" and who has openly called for a "final solution" to mass-deport American Jews. Platner deleted the post, but only after it got attention, not before. He also sat for a lengthy interview with antisemitic conspiracy theorist Nate Cornacchia, describing himself as a longtime fan. He has called the U.S.-Israel relationship "shameful" and praised a violent Hamas attack on Israel in 2014.

"In November Susan Collins, a proven leader with an indisputable record of delivering for Maine, will face a Nazi sympathizing self-proclaimed communist with a record of hate-mongering and dishonesty," said RNC spokesperson Kristen Cianci. "It's safe to say we are confident going into Election Day."

There’s no denying that a candidate with this profile would have been a liability the party ran from not all that long ago. Now he's the frontrunner with enough momentum that he forced the sitting governor - recruited by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer himself - to drop out of the race.

This didn't materialize overnight. The Democratic Party's tolerance for anti-Israel sentiment has been building for decades. 

The trajectory is traceable. 

Barack Obama won the presidency despite his two-decade relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, a pastor whose hostility toward Israel and Jews was a matter of public record. Once in office, Obama systematically manufactured distance between Washington and Jerusalem, signaling that cool skepticism toward Israel was not just acceptable but arguably sophisticated Democratic foreign policy. 

Obama’s administration was the most anti-Israel administration since Jimmy Carter, and it frequently undermined our democratic ally in the Middle East. Obama exposed classified information about Israel's nuclear capabilities - an alarming breach of trust. His IRS targeted pro-Israel organizations, and his administration declined to enforce anti-BDS provisions, effectively offering a federal green light to a movement whose stated purpose is the economic strangulation of the Jewish state. At the 2012 Democratic National Convention, delegates initially refused to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital — a true sign that the party was becoming more openly antisemitic.

Joe Biden accelerated the trend by allowing the antisemitic wing of his party to set the terms of the Israel debate rather than confronting it. Last year, polling showed Democrats favoring Palestinians over Israelis by a staggering 59–21 percent margin, and overall American sympathy for Israel reached a 25-year low. 

The line from Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama to Graham Platner is unmistakable. It also helps explain how anti-Israel sentiment found a foothold inside the Democratic Party. Each step made the next one easier to accept, and party leadership either accepted it each time or chose not to push back.

Ironically, Democrats spent years calling their Republican opponents Nazis. The charge was deployed so casually and so broadly that it became almost ambient noise in American political life. Now the same party is on the verge of nominating a man who wore a Nazi symbol on his chest for two decades as its nominee for the United States Senate in Maine. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 22:55

Ex-CIA Analyst Warns Hegseth's Claim Of "Ironclad" Hormuz Blockade Deeply Misleading 

Authored by former CIA officer Larry Johnson

Pete Hegseth is lying about the US blockade of Iranian ports. On April 12, after JD Vance announced that talks with Iran had failed, Trump declared a naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas. CENTCOM clarified that the blockade would be enforced against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports, but would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Now, after more than two weeks, Pete Hegseth has been saying the US blockade is working and getting stronger, describing it as “ironclad,” “tightening by the hour,” and even “going global.” He said the Navy had turned back 34 ships, that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is now “much more limited,” and that the blockade will last “as long as it takes.”

He also framed the blockade as coercive leverage on Iran, saying it is meant to cut off shipping pressure until Tehran abandons its nuclear ambitions. In the same remarks, he warned the US would “shoot to destroy” any Iranian boats laying mines or otherwise threatening commercial shipping.

Here’s what the available data tells us about Strait of Hormuz transits since April 15:

Daily volumes (around April 15): On April 15 alone, there were 19 transits — 5 inbound and 14 outbound — according to Windward. Around that same period, April 11 saw 17 transits, April 12 saw 21, and April 13 saw 17. United Against Nuclear IranWindward

Overall picture since April 15: A precise cumulative total from April 15 through today (April 30) isn’t publicly available in a single figure, but based on the data points above, daily transits have been running roughly in the range of 6–21 ships per day. Recent data from Windward and AIS trackers confirm persistent low volumes of 6–13 vessels daily.

That would put a rough estimate somewhere in the ballpark of 100–200 total transits over the 15-day stretch since April 15 — though the true number could be higher due to GPS spoofing. I can’t comment on GPS spoofing, but I can say with certainty that Pete Hegseth is spoofing the American public about the effectiveness of the blockade.

In order to understand Hegseth’s perfidy, you need to understand the US Navy doctrine for handling a blockade. The US Navy’s approach to taking control of a ship seized during a blockade centers on Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) operations, governed primarily by the Commander’s Handbook on the Law of Naval Operations (NWP 1-14M/MCTP 11-10B, March 2022) and aligned with the law of armed conflict (LOAC), including customary rules on blockades.

Standard Procedure for Seizure & Control

1. Interception and Warnings: US forces (Navy warships, often with Marine or Coast Guard support) issue radio warnings, visual signals, or warning shots to order the vessel to stop. Non-compliance can lead to disabling fire (e.g., targeting engines) to halt the ship without sinking it.
2. Boarding (VBSS): A specialized boarding party—typically from the Navy, Marines (e.g., 31st MEU), or Coast Guard—approaches via small boats, helicopters, or fast-roping. The team secures the bridge, engine room, and key areas to establish control. Teams train for both compliant and non-compliant (opposed) boardings, using tactics for close-quarters battle, searches, and restraint of crew.
3. Taking Control:
   • The boarding party assumes operational command of the vessel.
   • In a formal wartime blockade or armed conflict context, a prize crew (detachment of US personnel) may be placed aboard to sail the seized ship to a friendly port for adjudication. The original crew can be detained, removed, or (for neutrals) sometimes allowed limited continued presence under guard.
   • The ship and cargo become subject to inspection for contraband, sanctions violations, or blockade breach. Under prize law (revivable in armed conflict), a prize court may condemn the vessel/cargo as lawful prize.
4. Post-Seizure: Here is the key point: the vessel is typically escorted to a US or allied port for further inspection, potential forfeiture, or release if the capture is deemed unlawful. Crew handling follows LOAC (e.g., humane treatment; possible internment for belligerents).

Blockades are acts of war requiring effective enforcement (impartial, declared, and maintained by force). Violators (enemy or neutral ships breaching or attempting to breach) are subject to capture

Now that you understand the procedure, let’s look at the US Navy's constraints. As I discussed in my last article, the US Navy is keeping its ships 200 miles off the coast of Iran. If the venture any closer to shore they are vulnerable to missile and drone attacks. The Iranian ships — when they leave port — normally stay within 50 miles of the Iranian coast, which means they are outside the reach of the US Navy.

Fifty two Iranian vessels have crossed a US-imposed blockade of Iranian waters within a 72-hour period...
https://t.co/mZrwK5qijI

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) April 29, 2026

Next, let’s look at the current US Navy order of battle (this is based on publicly available information). As of late April 2026, the US Navy has at least 14 actively operating or supporting in the broader region (Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, and relevant Indian Ocean areas). This includes three Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs); at least eight multiple guided-missile destroyers; six ships attached to the Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG) for the 31st and 11th MEUs, and two additional escorts (not part of the core ARG but often operate with it): the Cruiser USS Robert Smalls (CG-62) and the destroyer USS Rafael Peralta (DDG-115), forming a broader Expeditionary Strike Group. In other words, the US Navy only as 11 ships that could be used in a VBSS operation.

Do you see the math problem? The current US deployment means that the US Navy could do VBSS operations on 11 vessels… Tops! But that would mean that US destroyers, which have the mission of protecting the US carriers from air attacks, would have to be pulled off of their primary mission leaving the carriers to fend for themselves. If we assume that all 11 US ships carried out successful VBSS operations since 15 April, that means between 89% and 96% of all Iranian ships out of the Strait of Hormuz have evaded the blockade. Hegseth is lying.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 22:25

This Is The Salary Needed To Live Comfortably In US Cities

How much do you need to earn to live comfortably in a major American city? Increasingly, the answer is a six-figure salary.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, shows the income required for a comfortable lifestyle across 56 U.S. cities, factoring in housing, food, transportation, savings, and discretionary spending.

The data comes from SmartAsset, using the MIT Living Wage Calculator and updated in February 2026.

The Highest-Cost Cities Now Require Nearly $160K

New York tops the list at $158,954, narrowly ahead of San Jose at $158,080.

California accounts for many of the highest-cost cities overall, with Irvine, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Sacramento all ranking near the top.

Rank City Salary to live comfortably 1 New York, NY $158,954 2 San Jose, CA $158,080 3 Irvine, CA $151,965 4 Boston, MA $139,776 5 San Diego, CA $136,781 6 San Francisco, CA $134,950 7 Oakland, CA $134,410 8 Honolulu, HI $128,253 9 Seattle, WA $127,296 10 Jersey City, NJ $127,005 11 Arlington, VA $125,882 12 Los Angeles, CA $120,307 13 Riverside, CA $119,974 14 Sacramento, CA $117,021 15 Portland, OR $116,106 16 Washington, DC $111,155 17 Denver, CO $110,781 18 Raleigh, NC $110,490 19 Virginia Beach, VA $110,448 20 Plano, TX $109,242 21 Atlanta, GA $108,451 22 Miami, FL $108,077 23 Charlotte, NC $106,205 24 Phoenix, AZ $106,122 25 Chicago, IL $105,830 26 Tacoma, WA $105,290 27 Newark, NJ $104,125 28 Boise, ID $104,000 29 Tampa, FL $102,710 30 Nashville, TN $102,502 31 Reno, NV $102,419 32 Minneapolis, MN $102,045 33 Anchorage, AK $101,795 34 Madison, WI $101,754 35 Durham, NC $101,296 36 Colorado Springs, CO $100,464 37 Austin, TX $98,550 38 Fort Worth, TX $97,552 39 Richmond, VA $97,178 40 Philadelphia, PA $97,094 41 Dallas, TX $96,970 42 Buffalo, NY $96,221 43 St. Paul, MN $96,054 44 Pittsburgh, PA $95,472 45 Omaha, NE $94,765 46 Orlando, FL $93,475 47 Columbus, OH $92,810 48 Jacksonville, FL $92,518 49 Kansas City, MO $92,144 50 Indianapolis, IN $90,896 51 Houston, TX $89,981 52 Tulsa, OK $88,317 53 Baltimore, MD $87,485 54 Memphis, TN $86,320 55 New Orleans, LA $84,406 56 San Antonio, TX $83,242

Taken together, the top of the ranking highlights how concentrated the highest costs are in a handful of major metros, particularly in California and the Northeast.

Boston, Honolulu, Seattle, and Jersey City also stand out, showing that the highest salary thresholds extend well beyond just a handful of coastal hubs.

Six-Figure Salaries Are Becoming the Norm

A key shift in the data is how quickly six-figure income requirements have spread beyond the most expensive cities.

Beyond the usual high-cost leaders, cities such as Denver, Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, and Boise now require roughly $100K or more for a comfortable lifestyle. That shift suggests higher living costs are no longer confined to the country’s most expensive coastal markets.

Lower-Cost Cities Still Require Substantial Income

At the lower end of the ranking, the salary needed to live comfortably still remains substantial. San Antonio has the lowest threshold at $83,069, followed by Memphis at $86,444 and Tulsa at $87,690.

Even in the most affordable cities on the map, the income needed for a comfortable lifestyle is far above what many households earn, highlighting how even the most “affordable” major cities now require incomes that were once considered high.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Where Americans Pay the Most Income Tax on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 21:55

DOJ Probes 36 Illinois School Districts Over Sexual Orientation Content In Pre-K–12 Classes

Authored by Naveen Anthrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Civil Rights Division has launched multiple investigations into 36 Illinois public school districts to assess whether sexual orientation and gender ideology content is being taught in pre-K-12 grade classes.

If the districts are determined to be teaching sexual orientation and gender ideology-related content, “the investigations will examine whether the schools have notified parents of their right to opt their children out of such instruction,” the DOJ said in an April 30 statement.

“The investigation will also assess whether the Illinois School Districts limit access to single-sex intimate spaces (such as bathrooms and locker rooms) and girls’ sports teams based on biological sex.”

The probe will cover whether the districts violated Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, which explicitly prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in education programs and activities receiving federal financial assistance. The districts are “recipients of hundreds of thousands of dollars of taxpayer funding,” the DOJ said.

The investigations will also look into whether the school districts adhere to the U.S. Supreme Court’s “extensive precedents on parental rights” as affirmed in Mirabelli v. Bonta and Mahmoud v. Taylor cases.

In the Mirabelli v. Bonta case, the Supreme Court blocked a California policy on March 2 that prohibited school personnel from informing parents when their children requested changing their preferred gender identity at schools.

“The State argues that its policies advance a compelling interest in student safety and privacy,” the court wrote in its decision. “But those policies cut out the primary protectors of children’s best interests: their parents.”

In the Mahmoud v. Taylor lawsuit, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Maryland parents, who, for religious reasons, wanted to opt their children out from getting exposed to school storybooks promoting LGBT lifestyles.

Commenting on the DOJ’s probe into 36 Illinois school districts, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon of the department’s Civil Rights Division said, “This Department of Justice is determined to put an end to local school authorities keeping parents in the dark about how sexuality and gender ideology are being pushed in classrooms.”

“Supreme Court precedent leaves no doubt: parents have the fundamental right and primary authority to direct the care, upbringing, and education of their children,” he said. “This includes exempting their children from ideological instruction that contradicts their values or decisions about their children’s health and best interests.”

The Illinois school districts under investigation include Bloomington Public Schools District, Lick Creek Community Consolidated School District, O’Fallon Community Consolidated School District, and Pembroke Community Consolidated School District.

The Epoch Times reached out to these school districts for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

The full list of school districts being probed was posted on the DOJ website.

Gender Ideology Investigations

On April 17, the Department of Education said it found four school districts in Kansas to have violated Title IX and the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act.

These districts had policies “that were likely to prevent schools from notifying parents of their child’s so-called ‘gender transition,’ even if the parent requested their child’s records,” the department said.

In August 2025, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) asked 46 states and territories to remove gender identity references from teaching materials, failing which they would face penalties, including the termination or suspension of federal funding.

This was met with a legal challenge by a coalition of 16 states and the District of Columbia, which filed a lawsuit in September 2025, arguing that terminating funding would harm “the very populations Congress intended to help.” The plaintiffs said complying with the order would conflict with their own laws and policies that require “inclusive” sex education curricula.

“The federal government’s far-reaching efforts to erase people who don’t fit one of two gender labels is illegal and wrong—and would deny services to millions more in the process,” Washington Attorney General Nick Brown said in a statement. The case is still ongoing in the court.

The HHS justified its order by citing a Jan. 29, 2025, executive order signed by President Donald Trump—Ending Radical Indoctrination in K-12 Schooling—which said that no federal dollars should go towards indoctrinating children in “radical, anti-American ideologies.”

At the time of the HHS order, Andrew Gradison, acting assistant secretary for the department’s Administration for Children and Families, said that “federal funds will not be used to poison the minds of the next generation or advance dangerous ideological agendas.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 21:25

Hawaii Has America's Highest Life Expectancy, West Virginia The Lowest

Life expectancy varies widely across the U.S., with clear regional patterns emerging in the latest data.

States in the Northeast and on the West Coast tend to have higher life expectancies, while many in the South and Appalachia rank lower.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows these differences using data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, based on 2022 life tables published in December 2025, the latest publicly available state-level figures as of March 2026.

The CDC’s report uses period life tables, which estimate how long a hypothetical group would live if it experienced the death rates observed in 2022 at every age. In other words, the measure captures current mortality conditions in each state, not a forecast for babies born there today.

Where Americans Live the Longest, and the Shortest

Among the 50 states and D.C., Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth in 2022 at 80.0 years. Massachusetts followed at 79.8, with New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut close behind.

The data table below shows the life expectancy of every U.S. state and D.C.:

Rank State Life Expectancy (Years) 1 Hawaii 80.0 2 Massachusetts 79.8 3 New Jersey 79.6 4 New York 79.5 5 Connecticut 79.4 6 California 79.3 7 Minnesota 79.3 8 Rhode Island 79.2 9 Utah 79.0 10 New Hampshire 78.7 11 Colorado 78.5 12 Idaho 78.4 13 Washington 78.4 14 Nebraska 78.3 15 Vermont 78.3 16 Wisconsin 78.1 17 North Dakota 77.9 18 Iowa 77.9 19 Florida 77.9 20 Maryland 77.8 21 Oregon 77.7 22 Illinois 77.5 23 Virginia 77.5 24 Pennsylvania 77.3 25 South Dakota 77.3 26 Montana 77.3 27 Texas 77.1 28 Wyoming 76.8 29 Michigan 76.8 30 Arizona 76.7 31 Maine 76.6 32 District of Columbia 76.6 33 Delaware 76.5 34 Kansas 76.5 35 Nevada 76.4 36 Georgia 75.9 37 North Carolina 75.9 38 Alaska 75.8 39 Ohio 75.6 40 Indiana 75.4 41 Missouri 75.2 42 South Carolina 75.1 43 New Mexico 74.5 44 Arkansas 73.9 45 Oklahoma 73.8 46 Tennessee 73.8 47 Alabama 73.8 48 Louisiana 73.8 49 Kentucky 73.6 50 Mississippi 72.6 51 West Virginia 72.2

On the other end of the ranking, West Virginia came in last at 72.2 years, behind Mississippi at 72.6 and Kentucky at 73.6.

The broad pattern is regional: the Northeast and West Coast have higher life expectancies, while many Southern and Appalachian states cluster at the bottom.

Why the National Average Misses the State Divide

While the national average is 77.5 years, only 21 states cleared that mark. Illinois and Virginia matched it exactly, and the remaining 28 states came in below it.

The CDC also found that females had higher life expectancy than males in every state and D.C., but the size of that gender gap varied widely. States on the lower end of life expectancy tended to have larger divides, while higher-ranked states had smaller gaps.

For example, New Mexico (ninth-lowest life expectancy at 74.5) recorded the largest female-male gap at 6.9 years, while Utah (ninth-highest at 79 years) had the smallest at 3.6 years.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Why Living Longer Isn’t Always Living Healthier on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 20:55

Russia Now Main Supplier Of Oil To Post-Assad Syria, Despite Pivot To West

Via The Cradle

Russia has become Syria's leading supplier of oil since the collapse of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government and the rise to power of former Al-Qaeda chief Ahmad al-Sharaa, according to Reuters. 

Shipments of Russian oil have risen by 75 percent this year to roughly 60,000 barrels per day (bpd), based on Reuters calculations using official data and vessel tracking from LSEG, MarineTraffic, and Shipnext.

Getty Images

While these volumes account for only a small fraction of Russia’s total global oil exports, they are significant for Syria. With domestic production still well below demand, Russian supplies have made Moscow the country’s leading crude provider.

According to two analysts and three Syrian officials cited by Reuters, the trade is driven by economic necessity in Damascus while also allowing Moscow to maintain influence in Syria. 

The energy supplies risk complicating Syrian ties with Washington and the EU, sources were cited as saying. 

“If the US were to fail to reach an agreement or settlement with Russia regarding Ukraine, it wouldn’t be a surprise if it told Syria overnight to stop buying these oil shipments,” said economist Karam Shaar. 

Syria has undergone a major shift toward Washington and the west since Assad’s ouster. The US has declared Damascus a partner and ally in the fight against ISIS – ignoring the Syrian government’s ties to the extremist organization. 

Damascus was also engaged in talks with Israel throughout last year, and began a crackdown on Palestinian resistance factions in Syria at Washington’s request. 

As a result, most US sanctions have been lifted. Despite this, Syria has not been fully integrated into the global economic system. 

Russia was a prime supporter of the Assad government. Throughout the 14-year war in Syria, Russian airstrikes repeatedly targeted extremist groups – which now make up the bulk of Syria's official military and security apparatus. 

But ties have improved, and Russia has retained a military presence inside Syria following negotiations with Damascus throughout 2025. 

In March last year, Reuters reported that Syria was receiving currency shipments from Russia. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 20:35

Estée Lauder Accelerates Turnaround, Adds 3,000 Jobs To Chopping Block

Beauty and cosmetics giant Estée Lauder is accelerating its workforce restructuring, announcing Friday morning that it will cut another 3,000 jobs, bringing total planned reductions to as many as 10,000 roles. The move is expected to unlock hundreds of millions of dollars in additional savings. Still, it also suggests a deeper reset in the company's workforce after its hiring spree leading up to  Covid, potentially putting a long-term cap on headcount.

The owner of Clinique, La Mer, MAC, Aveda, Bobbi Brown, Jo Malone London, Le Labo, Tom Ford Beauty, Too Faced, and others wrote in an earnings press release that it now "estimates a final net reduction in positions of 9,000 to 10,000, an increase from 5,800 to 7,000." In other words, management found another 3,000 jobs to cut.

According to Bloomberg data, Estée Lauder has a global workforce of about 40,470 as of the second quarter of 2025. The total workforce peaked in 2022 at around 44,800, ending a multi-decade hiring spree.

"Over 70% of the increase is attributable to the reduction in point-of-sale demonstration roles at select unproductive doors in its department store and freestanding store channels, as the Company continues to evolve its focus towards high-growth channels," the company noted.

Management said the restructuring is based on four objectives:

1. reorganization and rightsizing of certain areas,

2. simplification and acceleration of processes,

3. outsourcing of select services and

4. evolution of go-to-market footprint and selling models, all to help rebuild operating margin and also fuel reinvestment in consumer-facing areas to drive sustainable sales growth.

Shares jumped as much as 16% in premarket trading, and if those gains hold through the cash session, it would be the largest increase since November 3, 2011. The optimism stemmed from Estée Lauder's earnings report, which raised its profit outlook.

The company now expects adjusted EPS of $2.35 to $2.45, above analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg and higher than its prior $2.05 to $2.25 range. Organic sales growth is expected to be 3%, at the high end of previous guidance.

Shares are trading around 2016 levels after what can only be described as a boom-and-bust cycle, peaking in 2021. Shares remain down roughly 80%, as of Thursday's close, from the peak of $370 in late 2021.

The question Wall Street analysts have been asking is whether CEO Stéphane de La Faverie's turnaround will be successful.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 20:10

A Robot Economy: Who Gets Rich, Who Gets Left Behind

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Robots are coming to the economy. It is inevitable, really, and there is nothing that will stop it. At some point in the not-so-distant future, robots will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, from office work and manufacturing to service work and trade skills, and even your home. Here are some numbers for you.

The real question I want to explore in today’s post is what happens to the people who don’t own the robots? Let’s dig in.

I spent the past week reading through a detailed account of what’s happening inside Figure’s robotics facility in San Jose, and I want to be direct: the humanoid robots economy is no longer a thought experiment. Figure’s latest robot ran for 67 consecutive hours of fully autonomous work, kitchen tasks, package handling, and logistics, without a single error. That’s not a demo reel, that’s a product. When you factor in a projected lease cost of roughly $10 a day, it’s a product priced to replace the single largest input cost on every corporate income statement in America: human labor.

The optimists call what’s coming the “age of abundance.” Cheaper goods, freed-up time, robots building robots until supply constraints essentially disappear. That would be incredible, and you should not dismiss that vision. Furthermore, I think it’s directionally correct over a long enough horizon. But after 35 years of watching economic cycles play out, I’ve learned that the gap between a macro promise and the lived experience of actual households is where the real story lives.

In an upcoming article, we will dig deeper into the problems plaguing the K-shaped economy. However, that bifurcated structure, in which higher-income households ascend while lower-income ones stagnate, was already a structural feature of American life before a single humanoid robot touched a factory floor. Back to our question, does the arrival of humanoid robots at scale fix that problem? Or, does it make it dramatically worse? The answer, I believe, is both, in that order, and separated by a decade of potential pain.

The Technology Of Robots Is Not Waiting For A Policy Response

It’s worth taking the technology seriously before discussing the economics, because the economics are downstream of the hardware reality. Figure has replaced over 100,000 lines of handwritten control code with a single neural network — what they call Helix 2 — that controls the robot’s entire body in real time. The key shift is that neural networks learn from data rather than explicit instructions. Once a robot masters a task, that knowledge propagates instantly across the entire fleet. Humans don’t work that way. Robots do.

At $300 per month to lease, against a U.S. minimum wage that runs $15 to $20 per hour, a humanoid robot is already 50 times cheaper than the human it displaces, and it works around the clock without benefits, turnover, or OSHA violations. The corporate incentive to adopt is not subtle. JPMorgan’s own disclosures describe AI-driven efficiency gains of 40% to 50% in certain operations. Add a physical labor layer to that, and you have the most powerful deflationary force for corporate margins in modern history.

While shareholders of corporations with large labor forces will love the improvement in profit margins, workers will not. That asymmetry is not a flaw in the system; it’s a feature of who owns the system. And that ownership structure is the core issue this article is really about.

The K-Shaped Economy Was Already Broken

Here’s what makes the discussion of humanoid robots’ economy so complicated: we’re not starting from a position of broad-based prosperity. The K-shaped economy is already a structural, not cyclical, feature of modern America. The Federal Reserve’s own data shows the top 1% of households hold nearly 32% of total net worth, while the bottom 50% collectively hold 2.5%. The portion of GDP flowing to workers as compensation just hit its lowest level in over 75 years of Bureau of Labor Statistics tracking. The middle class shrank from 61% of the population in 1971 to barely 51% in 2023.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi described this not as a temporary anomaly but as “a structural, fundamental issue.” U.S. Bank’s economics team concluded in their 2026 report that income concentration now exceeds its pre-pandemic peak and sits at levels not seen in 60 years. These figures predate the meaningful deployment of humanoid robots. They reflect decades of technology-driven productivity gains that have flowed disproportionately to capital owners rather than to labor.

“The gains from technology have reliably accrued to capital. There is no structural reason to expect the arrival of humanoid robots to reverse that pattern — and strong structural reasons to expect it accelerates it.” – US Bank

Fortune’s analysis earlier this year captured the consensus view among economists. That view is that while AI and robots may eventually close the inequality gap, productivity gains need to first reach low-skilled workers. That must come through real wage increases at the bottom of the distribution, before that convergence happens. That process won’t complete until well into the 2030s at the earliest. In the meantime, the wealth effect continues to push the two tracks of the K further apart.

Stanford’s Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, drew a blunt historical parallel: the Midwest auto communities hollowed out by trade and automation in the 1990s. But the coming displacement is potentially 10 to 100 times more disruptive — not because it’s faster, but because it spans both blue-collar and white-collar work simultaneously. Software engineers, call center workers, and administrative roles face AI-driven displacement. Factory workers, warehouse staff, and service workers are facing displacement by humanoid robots. There’s no obvious “up-the-ladder” escape hatch when both rungs are being removed at once.

We already discussed the structural challenge in our January 2026 piece on AI Productivity, Employment, and UBI. The IMF estimates that AI could significantly affect nearly 40% of jobs worldwide. But the distribution of risk is deeply unequal. Entry-level roles, historically the on-ramp for younger workers without established skills, are exactly the jobs being automated first.

“The pace of technological change means millions of Americans face an uncertain labor market. Young workers entering the workforce find fewer traditional hiring pathways and rising expectations around digital and AI‑related skills. Older workers frequently lack the time or resources to retrain in rapidly shifting skill environments. Across age groups, employers deploying AI experience reduced labor costs and increased productivity, which simultaneously puts pressure on wages and job security.”

The problem already exists, and robots will likely only make things worse. For example, layoffs in 2025 ran more than 50% above the prior year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That displacement risk will grow further as robots enter the mainstream.

As we concluded in that previous article:

“The reality is stark. The economy may grow, but how the gains are distributed will determine whether everyday Americans thrive or struggle. Without structural policy interventions, technological displacement risks widening income inequality and weakening labor market attachment. The promise of more leisure, education, and family time from productivity gains remains theoretical. If workers lack stable incomes, employment opportunities, or bridging support, the rest won’t matter.”

But, this is where the “cries for UBI” become most vocal.

The UBI Trap

When people confront this picture, the political reflex is predictable: send checks. Universal Basic Income has become the default policy proposal for managing automation-driven displacement, and it’s worth taking seriously, not because it works, but because understanding why it doesn’t tells you a great deal about what actually might.

We covered the evidence in detail in our earlier piece on UBI experiments. The real-world results were consistent: cash transfers increased short-term consumption and reduced reported stress. They did not raise employment. They did not meaningfully increase retraining, skill development, or entrepreneurship. The largest behavioral response was an uptick in what researchers categorized as “social and solo leisure activities.” Legendary investor Howard Marks framed the core problem plainly: financial support alone cannot replace the psychological and social benefits of employment. Work provides identity, structure, and purpose, not just income. A check replaces the wage. It replaces nothing else.

The structural flaw is deeper than behavioral. An economy cannot function on transfers alone. Production must precede consumption. When the government sends checks to households without a corresponding increase in productive output, the result is inflation, exactly what 2020–2022 demonstrated. Producers observe increased purchasing power and raise prices to capture it. The real value of the transfer evaporates. A national UBI program large enough to offset meaningful displacement would cost trillions annually, requiring higher taxes or debt expansion, each of which suppresses the private investment needed to create new roles.

While that all seems bad, there is a more optimistic possibility, and why I want to push back on the dystopian framing. First, I don’t think the outcome is predetermined. The Industrial Revolution created enormous displacement: artisans lost work to mechanized production, and whole trades disappeared. But it also produced a century of rising living standards for people who successfully transitioned into new economic roles. The difference between that transition going well and going badly was not a UBI check. It was access to new skills, new institutions, and new markets.

The economy of humanoid robots creates real demand for roles that robots genuinely cannot fill. Trades requiring tactile judgment in unpredictable environments, such as master electricians, structural engineers, and experienced surgeons, aren’t going anywhere quickly. Secondly, AI and robotics are capital-intensive industries themselves, generating sustained demand for maintenance technicians, fleet managers, training data specialists, and deployment engineers. These aren’t science-fiction roles, but the downstream jobs for the infrastructure being built right now.

Lastly, there’s one lever that doesn’t get discussed enough: ownership. The K-shaped economy is, at its core, a problem of capital ownership. The households that benefit from automation are the ones that own the companies deploying it. Expanding the share of Americans with meaningful exposure to productive capital, whether through 401(k) reforms, Employee Stock Ownership Plans, or accessible investment platforms, does more for long-term inequality than any transfer payment. If a displaced warehouse worker owns shares in the company whose humanoid robots replaced her, the economics look very different than if she doesn’t.

What This Means for Investors Right Now

From a portfolio standpoint, the humanoid robots economy creates some of the most asymmetric opportunities I’ve seen in my career. However, the risk distribution is equally asymmetric, and most retail investors are positioned to capture the downside more than the upside.

The companies building the enabling infrastructure, robotics manufacturers, neural network chip designers, industrial automation software, and energy infrastructure to power the compute are the obvious beneficiaries. But valuations in that space already reflect extraordinary expectations. Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee assigns roughly a 50/50 probability to AI-related capital expenditures meeting investor expectations, noting that implementation timelines frequently slip and productivity gains tend to concentrate in a handful of large firms. That’s not a reason to avoid the sector. It is a reason to size positions carefully and not chase narratives at elevated multiples.

The overlooked angle is the deflationary pressure on companies that rely heavily on service labor. Hospitality, food service, residential services, and logistics firms currently trade at labor cost structures that will look dramatically different in five to seven years. For some, that’s a margin expansion story. For others, it’s a demand destruction story. A significant portion of their customer base works in exactly the jobs being displaced. The companies that survive the transition are the ones that both reduce labor costs and retain the purchasing power of their customer base. That’s a genuinely difficult needle to thread.

The investors who benefit most from the humanoid robots economy will be those who own the productive assets. Investing in equities, real estate, and capital-allocating businesses will far outpace depending solely on earned income. That pattern is not new. It’s the same dynamic that has driven the K-shaped divergence for the past 50 years. The robotics revolution amplifies it; it doesn’t invent it. Which means the single most important investment decision most Americans can make today has nothing to do with picking the right robotics stock. It’s making sure they own enough capital to participate in the upside that’s coming, whatever form it ultimately takes.

The age of abundance is coming. I genuinely believe that. But abundance distributed through ownership looks completely different from abundance distributed through government transfers. The first compounds. The second erodes. History has run this experiment repeatedly, and the result is not ambiguous. The question isn’t whether humanoid robots will transform the economy. They already are. The question is whether you’re positioned on the right side of the ledger when they do.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 19:45

New California DMV Rules Allow Autonomous Vehicles To Be Cited

Authored by Lear Zhou via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

SAN FRANCISCO—Driverless vehicles such as Waymo robotaxis could be ticketed for moving violations, according to updated autonomous vehicle (AV) regulations approved by the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) on April 28, to enhance safety, oversight, and enforcement requirements.

Waymo driverless vehicles charge at a Waymo charging station in Santa Monica, Calif., on May 30, 2025. Daniel Cole/Reuters

The new rules allow law enforcement agencies to cite the companies that own the AVs for traffic violations committed by their vehicles.

Part of the regulations, which were implemented based on the California Legislature’s Assembly Bill 1777, also require companies to respond to calls from police, firefighters, and other emergency officials within 30 seconds.

The rules also authorize emergency response officials to issue electronic geofencing requests to an AV manufacturer to direct its AV fleet to leave or avoid the area within two minutes. “AVs that violate this restriction may be subject to permit restrictions or suspension,” according to DMV’s news release.

“Autonomous vehicle innovators operating in California have a clear, workable path to test and deploy, ensuring the state will continue to benefit from autonomous technology through safer roads, enhanced accessibility, and strengthened supply chains.” said Jeff Farrah, CEO of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA), referring to the new regulation in an April 29 statement.

AVIA is a non-governmental organization advocating for the safe and timely deployment of autonomous driving technologies.

The new rules send a clear message that “autonomy does not remove responsibility,” Ahmed Banafa, an engineering professor of San Jose State University, told The Epoch Times via email.

“These vehicles must integrate smoothly into real-world environments that include law enforcement, pedestrians, and unpredictable situations.” he said.

Previously law enforcement officers often didn’t know how to deal with driverless cars. The new rules are meant to lead to more standardized procedures, clearer communication channels, and better coordination between AV fleets and the law enforcement agencies.

“While it may introduce additional compliance costs and slow down some rollouts, it creates a clearer framework for companies to operate within,” Banafa said.

DMV’s new rules based on AB 1777 would require AV manufacturers to maintain a dedicated emergency response telephone line, and equip each AV with a two-way voice communication device for emergency response officers to communicate with a remote human operator.

The deadline for the AV companies to comply was set as July 1, 2026.

The rule updates come after issues were revealed involving autonomous vehicles in San Francisco, including Waymo cars blocking intersections during a massive blackout that disabled traffic signals in December.

The San Francisco Fire Department also complained after dozens of incidents involving driverless vehicles interfering with emergency response teams in 2023.

To comply with the new regulations, the AV manufacturers must increase human involvement, but in a different form, Banafa ssaid. “Humans are now part of a centralized support system rather than physically inside the car.”

On Feb. 4, 2026, in a Senate Commerce Committee hearing, Waymo’s chief safety officer Mauricio Peña testified that when the company’s robotaxis encounter unusual situations, a remote human operator may step in.

Peña said some of the operators are located in the United States, while other workers are abroad, including in the Philippines.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 18:55

The Elites And Their Contempt

Authored by Rev. John F. Naugle via The Brownstone Institute,

Last week, I was unexpectedly hit with a post-lockdown trauma response. While driving to a baseball game days before the NFL Draft came to Pittsburgh, I passed a digital highway sign instructing me to avoid nonessential travel.

Suddenly, memories of empty highways with signs instructing drivers to “Stay Safe and Stay Home” came flooding back to me.

As the week developed, it began to occur to me that the parallels were deeper than my subjective emotional response. Road closures intensified, rendering my beloved city of Pittsburgh less and less functional. Even sidewalks were closed. 

Entire parking garages were emptied and abandoned. Pittsburgh’s “most visited museum,” the Kamin Science Center, has been closed to the public for weeks because it was within the footprint of the upcoming event. For the actual days of the draft, Pittsburgh Public Schools were shuttered as if a blizzard had rendered travel impossible.

How do I walk to PNC Park?

The attempt by local officials to trigger hysteria in the populace worked, maybe too well. People traveling to Pittsburgh for the event heeded the instructions to use the special free public transit to make their way in. Parking operators, expecting a huge windfall, saw themselves lower their exorbitant prices midday. For example, the Rivers Casino quickly abandoned their plan to charge $250 per day, lowering their rate to $100 for the first day of the draft and then abandoning charging altogether for subsequent days.

Local businesses outside the official footprint of the event were told to prepare for heavy crowds, but instead experienced a weekend worse than anything they had seen since the Covid hysteria. Those who didn’t want to go to the draft were terrified to go anywhere near the city.

In summary, children were deprived of education, small business owners were drastically harmed, public spaces which exist for the common good were shuttered, and normal life ceased for those who actually live in the City of Pittsburgh. While all of this was happening, local politicians were patting themselves on the back for how well everything was pulled off, taking pride that this draft broke attendance records for the NFL and that their plans of getting people in and out of the city were effective. It was our own personal Operation Warp Speed.

I think there’s a lesson here that applies not merely to Pittsburgh politics but also to the wider dysfunction we see in elected officials throughout what used to be Western Civilization.

Our political leaders view their own constituents with a sort of boredom or indifference. In the leadup to the draft, Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania engaged in a number of public works projects designed to improve the area in preparation for the draft. 

Suddenly, our governments remembered that potholes aren’t supposed to be allowed to exist and that crime isn’t supposed to be allowed to happen. For three days, Pittsburgh had a heavily subsidized and highly functional public transit system, something that hasn’t existed the entirety of my lifetime.

Any one of these projects could have been accomplished at any time, but the actual people who live there provided insufficient motivation for our leaders. Rather, what really mattered to them was looking good in front of millionaires, soon-to-be millionaires, and the powerful elites who would gather to party the night away with Nelly, Steve Aoki, and 2 Chainz.

Meanwhile, the elites themselves seem to view the common people with at least implicit contempt. They desire entire blocks to be shut down for their own amusement. The common man, including those who wait upon them, should be relegated to buses or walking so as not to encroach upon their experience. This is their party, and the city is lucky to have them there.

We live in a world where the elites view the common man as a problem to be solved and the leaders elected by the common man anxiously present themselves as lapdogs to these elites, forgetting any sense of duty or obligation to those who placed them in power.

We saw this during lockdowns, we saw this as inflation raged on, and we see it now as gas prices remain above $4. The urgent and pressing question that faces all of us: what is the political solution in a system where elected officials conspire with elites who hold the voters themselves in contempt?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 17:15

8 In 10 Chatbots Inclined To Assist Users In Planning Attacks

Eight out of ten AI chatbots have been found to actively assist users in planning violent attacks, according to a new investigation by CNN and the Center for Countering Digital Hate.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, when asked to plan violent attacks including a school shooting, an antisemitic bombing and a political assassination, platforms such as Perplexity, Meta AI and DeepSeek regularly assisted users in finding answers.

Only one, Anthropic’s Claude, repeatedly discouraged users from taking action.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Researchers tested ten chatbots by acting as a user planning to carry out several types of violent attacks both in the United States and in Ireland, providing a European comparison.

The tests were designed to reflect plans for school shootings or knife attacks, assassinations targeting politicians or bombings targeting political parties or synagogues.

In over half of the responses for eight of the chatbots, the subjects were provided with advice on locations to target and weapons to use in an attack.

Snapchat’s My AI and Anthropic’s Claude refused to offer help in 54 percent and 68 percent of cases, respectively. Claude was also the only chatbot to consistently recognize the intentions of the user and to discourage them from acting. Meanwhile, Character.AI actively encouraged violence, including suggesting that the test user “use a gun” on a health insurance CEO and physically assault a politician that the user dislikes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 16:50

Meta Buys Robot Brain Startup As Zuck Wants Humanoids In Homes

After the Oculus and Metaverse bets turned into costly disappointments for Mark Zuckerberg's Meta Platforms, the tech giant's pivot to real-world humanoid robotics appears to be gaining momentum, with news Friday afternoon that it is acquiring Assured Robot Intelligence.

Bloomberg reports that Meta has closed the acquisition of the humanoid robotics startup, which develops AI models to help robots understand, predict, and adapt to human behavior in complex environments.

What Meta has acquired appears to be a "robot brain" designed to give Zuckerberg's humanoid robots better control, self-learning capabilities, and whole-body movement, enabling them to operate around people and perform physical tasks. Eventually, Zuckerberg wants these bots in your home.

Under the deal, co-founders Lerrel Pinto and Xiaolong Wang will join Meta Superintelligence Labs and work with the Meta Robotics Studio.

There is no information about the robot brains on ARI's website. Using the commercial risk intelligence firm Sayari, we can see the founders and directors of the startup.

More interestingly, trade data shows that ARI imported "8529.90 - Parts for TVs & Radios" from India.

Hopefully, Zuck can end his cold streak of failures with humanoid robots.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 15:35