Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago)

1) The Unemployment Rate is at 4.4%

The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September. 
The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest rate since the Great Depression).

The unemployment rate is up from 3.4% in April 2023 - and that matched the lowest unemployment rate since 1969!
Even though the rate has increased recently, this is historically a low unemployment rate.

2) Low unemployment claims.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Weekly claims were at 216,000 last week.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.
Even though weekly claims have bounced around a little recently, the 4-week average is close to the lowest level in 50 years.

3) Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP has Fallen Significantly

This graph shows household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  
Note this graph is through Q2 2025 was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP.

Mortgage debt, as a percent of GDP is at 44.6% - down from Q1 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.

4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate is Low

This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2025, shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  
Although mortgage delinquencies are up a little from Q2 2023 - the lowest level since the MBA survey started in 1979 - delinquencies are still historically very low.
Note: The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent but not reported to the credit bureaus).
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process are low.

5) Household Debt burdens at Low Levels (ex-pandemic)

This graph, based on data from the Federal Reserve, shows the Household Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow).
The Household debt service ratio was at 11.3% in Q2 2025, slightly below the pre-pandemic level of 11.6%.
The DSR for mortgages (blue) is close to the pre-pandemic level.

Happy This data suggests aggregate household cash flow is in a solid position.

Happy Thanksgiving to All!

 

 

At The Money: Ben Hunt on How to Use Narrative Information  (November 26, 2025)

Do fundamentals or narratives drive market valuations? That is the question so many are wrestling with in today’s 24/7 algo-based platforms and AI-driven mediascape.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Ben Hunt is founder of Perscient, a firm that studies how narratives and stories shape markets, investing, and social behavior through the lens of information theory, game theory, and unstructured data analysis. His work analyzes the language, story arcs, and viral spread of explanations in media

For more info, see:

Persient

Personal Bio

Website: Epsilon Theory

Masters in Business (Coming soon!)

LinkedIn

Twitter

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

INTRO: Too much information running through my brain, Too much information driving me insane

Investors have long been taught that fundamentals drive stock prices. Revenue, growth, and profits, as Benjamin Graham taught us in the short run. The market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it’s a weighing machine.

But what if it isn’t? What if narratives are driving market valuations? I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money, we’re gonna discuss how to identify when market narratives overtake fundamentals.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Ben Hunt of Perscient. Ben’s firm studies, narratives, and the stories that shape markets investing and social behavior through the lens of information theory. So Ben, let’s start with a definition.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you define a narrative in the context of markets and investing?

Ben Hunt: Let me define it.

So it’s, it’s a simple definition. A narrative is an answer to the question why. Why did the market go up today? Why should you buy this stock? Why should you sell this stock? Why should you vote for this person? Any answer to the question, why is a narrative?

Barry Ritholtz: How do you distinguish between something like data, which I arguably comes with a storyline attached to it and just a straight up, Hey, Bitcoin is millennium or digital gold?

Ben Hunt: How do you define the difference between this, I guess this stock is cheap with a PE of nine is a narrative. Yeah. Well, why is, why is a PE of nine cheap? Or why is a PE of three cheap or 15 cheap? These are all stories, Barry. Any, any, any valuation, any multiple, any meaning that you attach to numbers?

It’s a story. It’s a, it’s a, it’s an answer to the question. Why? Why do I call it cheap? Why do I think you should buy it? Why is this interesting? Those are all why questions and the answer. Are all narratives.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you identify any particular narrative that may be driving a particular stock or asset class or the overall market? What, what tools do do you use to help discern that?

Ben Hunt: Lemme start by saying what I don’t care about. So what I don’t care about is truth or accuracy. I mean, it sounds crazy, but

Barry Ritholtz: Not at all. ’cause you’re trying to figure out what the crowd believes. Yeah. Whether it’s true or not. Well, if it affects their behavior, it matters.

Ben Hunt: I’ve given up on trying to figure out what reality is. What I’m trying to figure out is how is reality being presented? How is it being presented to us? So what I’m looking for are elements of presentation. I’m looking for word choice. I’m looking for how loud is it being presented to you, how frequently it’s being presented to you.

But most of all, I’m looking for a concept that you talk about in network math, and it’s called density. I’m looking for how the language is connected to other words. In fact, those are the, the measurements you use in network math. Those are where they, we talk about betweenness, we talk about connectedness and centrality. Those are the measurements, because I’m looking at the presentation, not at the reality.

Barry Ritholtz: So how do you measure density? You, you hinted at some of it. How loud it is, how repetitive it is. How do you tell when a specific narrative is beginning to exert influence over prices?

Ben Hunt:  Bob Schiller wrote a pretty good book, a a couple years back called “Narrative Economics,” and the takeaway from that book is that you should think about and understand narratives in exactly the same way.

You think about and you understand disease, I mean, you, you use the same measurements. You remember when we were talking about COVID, it was or R-not? How, how fast does it spread? How quickly does it spread? What is the medium in which it can spread most easily? It’s exactly the same thing here, it’s exactly the same thing.

We’re really using exactly the same math. As you would use to try to understand epidemiology and the spread of a virus. So what we’re looking at though, instead of the atmosphere or wastewater, we’re looking at the words. We’re looking at all the words that are out there in terms of text of what’s being written, what’s being said.

This is all unstructured data, and we’re looking for the presence of certain ideas, clusters of words that spread through that medium of media in exactly the same way that a virus spreads through the air or through the water. If you’re a financial advisor or you’re a market person of any sort, and somebody comes up, why’d the market go up today?

And you could say, well. There are a hundred different reasons, but basically it was just variance. You know? It’s just, it’s just, it’s just

Barry Ritholtz: A random walk. People. Hate that answer, by the way.

Ben Hunt: People hate that answer ’cause it’s a crappy story. It’s a story. It may be true, but it’s not compelling. Exactly. It’s not truthy. Right. It doesn’t, it doesn’t connect with you. It’s like, well that’s disappointing. I, I want a story so. The stories that are basically there to fill the time. Uh, and these are, these are typically examples where I call ’em descriptive narratives.

They’re, they’re answering the question why, but they’re describing why something happened.

Barry Ritholtz: Always after the fact. Never in advance.

Ben Hunt: Always after the fact. That’s exactly right, Barry. So what you’ll find is that, I don’t know, it’s earning season and who comes out first with earnings. Financials, right. Citi and Goldman Sachs, whoever, they’ll report some good earnings. The stocks will go up and afterwards, Cramer and everyone else has gotta tell you why.  And they’ll say, “Oh, I’m bullish on financials.” And they’ll give you a reason.

And the half life for that sort of narrative, it’s a week or two.

You wanna do with that? Honestly, is you wanna fade it. You wanna look for that to appear in your Bloomberg email in the morning saying, oh, market experts bullish on financials because blah, blah, blah. And when that drum beating gets pretty loud when it’s appearing in your morning email. I wanna fade it.

You don’t wanna press it, you wanna fade it because this is, this is just the, the ordinary business of Wall Street. You’ve gotta have an answer to why, it’s almost usually just variance or some combination of idiosyncratic stuff. But you’ve gotta come up with some blanket “Why?” And if that gets a lot of play, I want to go the other way.

There’s another type of narrative though, where I want to press it. That’s what we call prescriptive narratives. It’s not saying, “Oh, the Fed is dovish.” It’s saying, you know, Muhammad Elarian will come out, or, uh, I don’t know. Trump will come out and say, “The Fed should be dovish.”

You see the difference? It’s not, it’s not describing what’s already happened. It’s trying to. Lay the framework for what should happen.

Barry Ritholtz: So let’s delve into that. What sort of tools are you using to identify these narratives? Be they descriptive or prescriptive? How, how much lead time do you get, uh, to analyze, you know, this giant corpus of noise and commentary and data that is produced every single day?

Ben Hunt: This is what good traders, honestly  and investors have always done. They’ve, they’ve, they’ve always made these sort of assessments of the news and the stories that are happening. So this, what we’re trying to do is we’re trying to externalize what good traders, and I’ll call it short-term investors, have always done, they’ve always internalized this so.

Anybody can do this. You start looking for the words that are trying to prescribe versus describe, uh, that’ll you, you can, you can pick this up in whatever you do. What we are able to do though today is because there’s now big data is because there’s big compute, is we can read everything. Humans we’re all limited in what we can read, what we can pay attention to in our little corner of the world.

What’s possible today is to read everything and to analyze exactly this sort of word choice.

Barry Ritholtz: What sort of output do you get from your “Big Compute” that’s scraping everything sifting through all the language; does it identify specific words? Does it identify themes? I’m assuming artificial intelligence and big data analytics is a key part of this. What does the output look like to you?

Ben Hunt: Well, lemme start with where it starts, because it’s not that the output comes from what you. Put into it and what you wanna put into it, and this has to be human generated, are, well, what are the ideas, what are the narratives that I care about?

Here’s why that’s important: Let’s say you’re a value investor, you’ve got a vision, you know, you’ve got a view on a stock and like all value investors, you think the market has not recognized the story about this stock that I think is really important.

So what you’re looking for is not, how loud is that story right now? That story is dormant. You’re looking for that story to start being told. So you can’t start this from asking AI, “Hey, AI, what are the prominent stories right now?” Because it can only tell you what’s being spread right then and there.

The way to really make money with narratives, is to say what narrative is dormant today, I wanna see when it starts to get discovered.

Its that discovery phase when the market quote unquote, wakes up to a story that you’ve been looking for the market to wake up to. That’s how I find you can most reliably make money from narrative investing.

Barry Ritholtz: I get the sense we’re still in the early days of narrative investing as a key strategy, at least in terms of using AI and big data. What do you see developing in this space? What’s the narrative about narrative investing?

Ben Hunt: This is an old idea. So if you, if you go back and kinda look at your Wall Street history, or if you talk to kind of traitors today, what they’re always looking at is the news that comes along and they’re trying to say, Hey, do I fade that? You know, is that story worn out? Is it, is, is that, is it topping over or does this story have legs?

Is this the start of, its spread like a virus? It’s an old idea, what’s possible today is to quantify it. What’s possible today is to externalize what good traders have internalized in the past. It’s not that it’s, inventing cold fusion or really doing anything that’s new in the world. What it is able to do is to make that sort of analysis, to look at not what reality is, but how reality is being presented and make it available over a much wider scope, not over just that little area that the Good Trader really knows a lot about and make it available over a lot more publications and things that are being written because humans can’t read everything really.

I think it’s a way of, I hate to call it democratizing investing. I really hate that idea. But it really is a notion of creating a new instrument so every investor can understand, well, what are the stories that are being told about the world today?

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, technology has enabled us to read much more than we were capable of reading as individuals. In fact, the machines can read everything and we can use those machines to identify dormant narratives that might lead to increases in either a particular stock or asset class or market. Fair statement?

Ben Hunt: Very fair. What you’re looking for is what’s new, what’s changed, because when the narrative changes, that changes behavior.

Barry Ritholtz: Fascinating stuff. I’m Barry Ritholtz. This is Bloomberg’s At the Money.

 

OUTRO:

Too much information running through my brain
Too much information driving me insane
Too much information running through my brain
Too much information driving me insane

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: How to Use Narrative Information appeared first on The Big Picture.

My morning LGA-ORD/turkey day reads:

• This Year’s Thanksgiving Surprise: Half of the Guests Are Stoned: What started as a secret trip to smoke pot before dinner has mushroomed into a full-blown commercial holiday. Behold the ‘cousin walk.’ (Wall Street Journal)

• Crypto Crash Ruins Thanksgiving for Retail Traders Once Again Bitcoin enthusiasts are bracing for some awkward questions this holiday season. (Bloomberg)

• What Is Deinfluencing? Unpacking TikTok’s Unlikeliest Shopping Trend: Over this past year, however, more and more people began to think twice before buying what influencers were selling. Just note the hashtag #Deinfluencing, which now has over a billion views on TikTok. The user-led intervention, which sees an army of self-described deinfluencers discouraging their audiences from buying into overhyped stuff, represents a notable departure from the usual calls to “swipe up” and “buy now.” (Vogue)

• AI Slop Recipes Are Taking Over the Internet — And Thanksgiving Dinner: Food bloggers see traffic dip as home cooks turn to AI, inspired by impossible pictures. (Bloomberg free)

• Grim retail sales data fuels concerns about health of US economy: Consumer confidence drops to second-lowest level since pandemic as inflation lingers. (Financial Times) see also Late Car Payments Are Piling Up at Record Levels as More Drivers Face Delinquency: A record share of subprime borrowers are delinquent on car payments, according to new data from Fitch Ratings in a series that dates back to the ’90s. (Money)

• Streamflation intensifies as Netflix, Disney+, and others continue raising prices; Streaming costs keep climbing as platforms chase profit. The economics of streaming are shifting from expansion to monetization. Nearly every major platform – from Netflix to HBO Max and Apple TV – has raised its prices over the past year, marking one of the sharpest rounds of increases since the subscription model upended cable television. (Techspot)

• Brain has five ‘eras’, scientists say – with adult mode not starting until early 30s” Study suggests human brain development has four pivotal ‘turning points’ at around the ages of nine, 32, 66 and 83. (The Guardian)

• They retired from the government. Now they’re back, protecting forests Trump abandoned. Since the start of the year, the Forest Service has lost nearly 6,000 staffers through firings, resignations and retirements encouraged by the Trump administration, according to internal figures obtained by The Washington Post. By summer, some of the agency’s regions were missing three-quarters of their trail and recreation staff — and some forests and districts had none at all. (Washington Post)

• The COVID political backlash disappeared: Turns out the pandemic didn’t break the Democratic Party. (The Argument)

• Hollywood Is Reeling—and These Movies Have Never Been So Popular: The PG rating has become the king of the box office. The entertainment business now relies on kids dragging their parents to theaters. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

 

As Holidays Approach, There’s Little Cheer for Consumers

Source: Bloomberg

 

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The post 10 Thanksgiving Day Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Thanksgiving Is Now One Of America's Most Dangerous Holidays, New Analysis Shows

Insuranceopedia reviewed national datasets from the NSC, FEMA, NFPA, NHTSA, and the CDC to analyze accident trends surrounding Thanksgiving. The results show that Thanksgiving surpasses Christmas, Memorial Day, and even the Fourth of July in several key danger categories.

• Thanksgiving is the most dangerous U.S. holiday for fires, with a 388% spike in home fires.

• Thanksgiving week car crashes killed 2,525 people from 2020–2024, more than any other major holiday.

• 40% of all injuries on Thanksgiving Day come from structural fires.

“Most people think of Thanksgiving as a low-risk holiday, but the data paints the opposite picture," Says Max Coupland, CEO of Insuranceopedia.

 "Between rushed travel, long cooking hours, and unfamiliar foods around curious pets, it’s a perfect storm for accidents. Our goal is to help families stay safe and avoid the kinds of claims we see spike every November.”

1. Thanksgiving Driving Is Deadlier Than Any Other Major Holiday

Thanksgiving travel may feel routine, but the numbers tell a different story:

• 2,525 people were killed in car crashes over Thanksgiving week from 2020–2024 — higher than Christmas, Labor Day, July 4th, and Memorial Day. (Source: National Safety Council)

• 36% of all Thanksgiving week traffic fatalities involve a drunk driver. (Source: NHTSA)

• 8% of all annual car accident injuries occur during Thanksgiving week alone. (Source: National Safety Council)

Experts say the deadly combination of alcohol, rushed travel, and congested roads makes Thanksgiving week uniquely hazardous.

Driving Safety Tips For Thanksgiving

• Give yourself extra time so you don’t feel pressured to speed.

• Stay overnight or limit alcohol consumption.

• Avoid distractions and focus fully on the road.

• When possible, avoid peak travel times during the most dangerous days of Thanksgiving week.

2. Thanksgiving Is the No. 1 Day of the Year for House Fires

Thanksgiving isn’t just the biggest cooking day of the year — it’s also the most dangerous.

• Thanksgiving Day sees an average of 1,500 reported fires — 388% higher than the daily average. (Source: NFPA)

• 1,446 home cooking fires were reported on Thanksgiving Day 2023 alone. (Source: NFPA)

• 40% of all Thanksgiving Day injuries come from structural fires. (Source: FEMA USFA)

• Residential fires on Thanksgiving cause five deaths each year on average. (Source: FEMA USFA)

• Most incidents happen between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m., during meal prep. (Source: FEMA USFA)

The #1 cause of fires on Thanksgiving? Unattended cooking.

Fire Safety Tips For Thanksgiving

• Stay in the kitchen while cooking, especially when frying or simmering.

• Keep kids and pets away from hot surfaces and kitchen tools.

• Test smoke alarms before starting holiday meal prep.

• Keep floors clear to avoid dangerous slips while handling hot items.

• Ensure cords from appliances aren’t dangling or accessible to children or pets.

3. A Hidden Danger: Food Poisoning from Mishandled Turkey

Foodborne illness spikes every Thanksgiving, and improper turkey preparation is a major culprit.

• 78% of people rinse their raw turkey, spreading bacteria around their sink and countertops. (Source: CDC)

• Even after cleaning, 14% still have lingering contamination in or around the sink. (Source: CDC)

Food Safety Tips For Thanksgiving

• Thaw the turkey far enough in advance and cook thoroughly.

• Refrigerate leftovers within 2 hours.

• Cut large portions into smaller pieces so they cool safely.

• Eat leftovers within 3–4 days, or freeze them.

• Always reheat leftovers to 165°F (74°C).

"Thanksgiving should be a time for connection, not catastrophe." Says Max Coupland.

 "A few simple precautions can prevent the kinds of accidents that turn a celebration into an insurance claim. The goal isn’t to scare people, it’s to help families enjoy the holiday safely and avoid unnecessary risks.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 20:10

Did Rubio 'Neo-Con' Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan?

Authored by Daniel McAdams, Executive Director of the Ron Paul Institute,

Lie down with dogs, you wake up with fleas; lie down with neocons, you wake up with wars.
–Me

So goes President Trump’s 28 point peace plan to end the Russia/Ukraine war. Revealed at the end of last week, the plan initially received a cautious but cautiously optimistic reception in Moscow.

It was hardly a dramatic tilt toward the Russian position. Many of the plan’s points ranged from the implausible to the bizarre. For example the idea that President Trump would be crowned some sort of “peace czar” overseeing the deal, and that Russia would agree to use its seized assets to rebuild Ukraine. Then there is the one that Russia should accept a demilitarized “buffer” zone taking up a good chunk of Donetsk (which itself would be “de facto” part of Russia but not de jure – and thereby subject to the vicissitudes of Western electoral politics). And of course there was the part where the US would share the “profits” from Russia’s paid reconstruction of Ukraine.

Very Trumpian, very weird.

Nevertheless the flawed plan (in terms of Russian acceptance) dropped like an atom bomb on the US neocons and their European counterparts. Trump’s peace plan was “entirely dictated by Putin,” the UK Independent breathlessly tells us. Yes, that is how propagandistic the western mainstream media really is. And suddenly we are back to Russiagate and accusations the Trump is acting as Putin’s puppet – or at least stenographer.

At the political level, EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas pretty well summed up the level of delusion among the European elite: “We have not heard of any concessions from Russia. If Russia really wanted peace, it could have agreed to an unconditional ceasefire a long time ago.’”

Yes, Kaja “Sun Tzu” Kallas. Military history teaches us that every army making rapid gains on the battlefield periodically pauses to make concessions to the losing side. Otherwise it wouldn’t be fair and not everyone would get a trophy.

President Trump’s demand that Ukraine’s acting president, Zelensky, accept the terms by Thanksgiving or face a cut-off in US military and intelligence assistance put the Europeans and US hawks in panic mode. It appeared Trump was finally tired of playing Hamlet after the framework he presented in Alaska in August was agreed upon by Russia and then abandoned by Trump himself after receiving an earful from said Europeans and US neocons.

This time, by golly, Trump was finally going to step up and end a conflict nearly a year after he promised to end it 24 hours.

And then Rubio walked in.

The one lesson Trump 2.0 did not learn from Trump 1.0 is that the personnel is the policy, particularly with a president who appears uninterested in details and disengaged from complex processes. Trump 1.0 was dragged down by neocon albatrosses John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, among others.

Even a Col. Douglas Macgregor brought in in the 4th quarter at the two minute warning to throw a “Hail Mary” pass to get us out of Afghanistan was tackled behind the line of scrimmage by Robert O’Brien, Trump’s final National Security Advisor and neocon dead-ender.

Neocons are wreckers. That’s the one thing they are good at.

The inclusion of new blood in the person of Vice President Vance ally, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll – who supplanted terminally clueless Trump envoy Keith Kellogg – offered the promise that finally the realist faction in the shadows of the Trump Administration would have their shot.

Then the rug was pulled. Again.

Rubio jetted off to Geneva to help lick the wounds of the European “leaders” who are dedicated to fighting the Russians down to the last Ukrainian.

Politico lets us in on what happened next, in a piece titled, “Rubio changes the tack of Trump’s Ukraine negotiations after week of chaos.”

Before Rubio showed up in Switzerland, it largely felt like Vice President JD Vance, via his close friend Driscoll, was leading the process. By the end of the weekend, Rubio had taken the reins because the conversations became more flexible, the official said.

“Flexibility” means that we are back to square one, with a reversion to the Kellogg/Euro view that the side winning a war should unilaterally freeze military operations in favor of the losing side.

Politico continued:

Rubio’s participation in the talks produced much more American flexibility, the four people familiar with the discussions said. Rubio told reporters on Sunday night that the aim is simply to finalize discussions ‘as soon as possible,’ rather than by Thanksgiving.

That loss of momentum and destruction of the sense of urgency means we have returned to the endless bickering of the eternally deluded voices who even in the face of rapid recent Russian advances believe that Ukraine is winning – or could win with a few hundred billion more dollars – the war against Russia.

Never mind the golden toilets. Suddenly that’s out of the news.

At the end of the day, all the drama changes little. As President Putin himself said while meeting with his own national security council (h/t MoA):

Either Kiev’s leadership lacks objective reporting about the developments on the front, or, even if they receive such information, they are unable to assess it objectively. If Kiev refuses to discuss President Trump’s proposals and declines to engage in dialogue, then both they and their European instigators must understand that what happened in Kupyansk will inevitably occur in other key areas of the front. Perhaps not as quickly as we would prefer, but inevitably.

And overall, this development suits us, as it leads to achieving the goals of the special military operation by force, through armed confrontation.

In other words, Russia is happy to achieve its objectives through negotiation, which would save lives and infrastructure especially in Ukraine. But it is also willing to continue its accelerating push to achieve those objectives militarily. And no fever dreams of war with Russia from the likes of former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen is going to change that.

Marco Rubio is a pretty bad Kissinger, and Kissinger was bad enough. At some point – and that point may have now passed – the Russians are going to rightly conclude that they have no negotiating partner in a US still dominated by people like the former Senator from Florida whose first love is regime change in Venezuela and Cuba.

Whatever the case, Trump should be pretty miffed that Marco threw a spanner in what would have been a world record, unprecedented, universally-praised, like-nothing-the-world-has-ever-seen, solving of NINE wars in just his first year in office!

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 19:45

Public Schools Are Failing And Parents Are Bailing

Authored by Larry Sand via American Greatness,

Students attending American public schools are struggling. Test scores from the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), released this year, indicate that 33% of 8th graders—a greater percentage than ever before—are reading at the “below basic” level.

Additionally, only 22% of high school seniors are proficient or above in math, down from 24% in 2019, and only 35% are proficient in reading—the lowest score since NAEP began in 1969—down from 37% in 2019. Also, a record-high percentage scored at “below basic” levels in both math and reading compared to all previous assessments.

Parents across the country, especially in big cities, have become aware of the problem and are removing their children.

In Chicago, public school enrollment has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, from nearly 403,000 students in 2010-11 to just over 316,000 in 2025-26, according to the Illinois Policy Institute. Most recently, the district reported a decline of 9,081 students between 2024-25 and 2025-26. IPI states that more than one in three desks in the district are empty.

For the 2025–26 school year, the New York City Department of Education discloses that 793,300 students are enrolled in K-12 grades. That’s a 2.3% decrease from the previous year and a nearly 10% drop since 2020. The data also show that 112 of the city’s public schools have fewer than 150 students, up from 80 schools just two years ago.

Twenty years ago, the Los Angeles Unified School District had 737,000 students, but that number has now fallen to approximately 408,000, reflecting a decline of over 40%.

Among students who haven’t withdrawn, many are chronically absent. Using data from 44 states and Washington, DC, Nat Malkus, the director of education policy at the American Enterprise Institute, writes that the alarming rate of chronic absenteeism—students missing more than 10% of school days annually—was 23.5% in 2024.

This problem, too, is especially serious in our large urban areas. In Los Angeles, over 32% of students were chronically absent in the 2023-2024 school year, 34 elementary schools have fewer than 200 students, and 29 use less than half of the building. Even worse, Chicago’s chronic absentee rate is 41%.

As government-run schools are shrinking, private schools are expanding substantially.

Participation in private school choice—when students use public funds for private school tuition—has risen 25%, from just over one million students in 2024 to 1.3 million this year, according to a new analysis by EdChoice, a school choice advocacy group.

This has been the largest year-to-year increase since EdChoice started tracking the data in 2000, said Robert Enlow, president and CEO of EdChoice. He noted that it took about 24 years for private school choice participation to reach one million students, and this year it hit 1.3 million.

Florida educates over 500,000 students through its universal voucher and scholarship programs. Utah’s Fits All Scholarship launched in 2024 with about 10,000 seats and was immediately oversubscribed. Iowa’s Students First Educational Savings Account program enrolled nearly 28,000 students in its second year, surpassing projections.

Additionally, many parents have chosen to homeschool. In fact, homeschooling has reached an all-time high.

Angela Watson of the Johns Hopkins University School of Education’s Homeschool Hub wrote earlier this month, “In the 2024-2025 school year, homeschooling continued to grow across the United States, increasing at an average rate of 5.4%. This is nearly three times the pre-pandemic homeschooling growth rate of around 2%. Notably, 36% of reporting states recorded their highest homeschool enrollment numbers ever—exceeding even the peaks reached during the pandemic.”

It’s not just parents who are dissatisfied with public schools; only 26% of teachers believe K-12 education is heading in the right direction nationwide, a 5-point drop from the spring, when 31% felt optimistic.

Of course, the public school monopolists, especially the teachers’ unions, are upset about the advancement of school choice, but their reasons are baseless. One argument they use is that choice increases segregation. American Federation of Teachers’ president Randi Weingarten nonsensically claims school choice was designed to keep schools segregated.

Wrong.

Researcher Greg Forster states that ten empirical studies have examined private school choice programs and their effect on segregation. Nine of these studies found that the programs reduced segregation, while one found no noticeable impact. None of the studies indicated that choice encourages racial discrimination.

No matter. The teachers’ unions, realizing they are losing in the court of public opinion, have resorted to litigation in various state courts. Wyoming, Missouri, Utah, South Carolina, and Montana have faced legal action from the unions, which are desperately afraid that parental choice will severely impact their bottom line.

So far, the unions’ efforts have been successful in two states.

In Wyoming, lawmakers launched the state’s first K-12 education savings account (ESA) program last year, beginning with the 2025-2026 school year. The $7,000 accounts can be used for private school tuition, tutors, homeschooling, or other education-related expenses. Nearly 4,000 students applied for them this fall.

However, the Wyoming Education Association, representing about 6,000 public school teachers, opposes using taxpayer dollars for a private option. In a lawsuit filed in June, the union and nine parents sued the state, arguing that the Steamboat Legacy Scholarship Act is unconstitutional because it violates a state regulation requiring a “complete and uniform system of public instruction.” The union was successful when a District Court judge issued a preliminary injunction against the voucher program in July.

In Utah, the state affiliate of the National Education Association successfully sued the state last year, arguing that the Utah Fits All Scholarship Program violates the state constitution by diverting tax revenue to private schools that aren’t free, accessible to all students, and supervised by the state board of education. The Utah Supreme Court is scheduled to review an appeal later this year.

In summary, we are engaged in a turf war. Parents, whose primary concern is their children’s education, are battling the establishment, particularly the teachers’ unions, whose aim is to protect their profits and maintain their toxic influence over K-12 education.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 18:55

Public Schools Are Failing And Parents Are Bailing

Authored by Larry Sand via American Greatness,

Students attending American public schools are struggling. Test scores from the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), released this year, indicate that 33% of 8th graders—a greater percentage than ever before—are reading at the “below basic” level.

Additionally, only 22% of high school seniors are proficient or above in math, down from 24% in 2019, and only 35% are proficient in reading—the lowest score since NAEP began in 1969—down from 37% in 2019. Also, a record-high percentage scored at “below basic” levels in both math and reading compared to all previous assessments.

Parents across the country, especially in big cities, have become aware of the problem and are removing their children.

In Chicago, public school enrollment has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, from nearly 403,000 students in 2010-11 to just over 316,000 in 2025-26, according to the Illinois Policy Institute. Most recently, the district reported a decline of 9,081 students between 2024-25 and 2025-26. IPI states that more than one in three desks in the district are empty.

For the 2025–26 school year, the New York City Department of Education discloses that 793,300 students are enrolled in K-12 grades. That’s a 2.3% decrease from the previous year and a nearly 10% drop since 2020. The data also show that 112 of the city’s public schools have fewer than 150 students, up from 80 schools just two years ago.

Twenty years ago, the Los Angeles Unified School District had 737,000 students, but that number has now fallen to approximately 408,000, reflecting a decline of over 40%.

Among students who haven’t withdrawn, many are chronically absent. Using data from 44 states and Washington, DC, Nat Malkus, the director of education policy at the American Enterprise Institute, writes that the alarming rate of chronic absenteeism—students missing more than 10% of school days annually—was 23.5% in 2024.

This problem, too, is especially serious in our large urban areas. In Los Angeles, over 32% of students were chronically absent in the 2023-2024 school year, 34 elementary schools have fewer than 200 students, and 29 use less than half of the building. Even worse, Chicago’s chronic absentee rate is 41%.

As government-run schools are shrinking, private schools are expanding substantially.

Participation in private school choice—when students use public funds for private school tuition—has risen 25%, from just over one million students in 2024 to 1.3 million this year, according to a new analysis by EdChoice, a school choice advocacy group.

This has been the largest year-to-year increase since EdChoice started tracking the data in 2000, said Robert Enlow, president and CEO of EdChoice. He noted that it took about 24 years for private school choice participation to reach one million students, and this year it hit 1.3 million.

Florida educates over 500,000 students through its universal voucher and scholarship programs. Utah’s Fits All Scholarship launched in 2024 with about 10,000 seats and was immediately oversubscribed. Iowa’s Students First Educational Savings Account program enrolled nearly 28,000 students in its second year, surpassing projections.

Additionally, many parents have chosen to homeschool. In fact, homeschooling has reached an all-time high.

Angela Watson of the Johns Hopkins University School of Education’s Homeschool Hub wrote earlier this month, “In the 2024-2025 school year, homeschooling continued to grow across the United States, increasing at an average rate of 5.4%. This is nearly three times the pre-pandemic homeschooling growth rate of around 2%. Notably, 36% of reporting states recorded their highest homeschool enrollment numbers ever—exceeding even the peaks reached during the pandemic.”

It’s not just parents who are dissatisfied with public schools; only 26% of teachers believe K-12 education is heading in the right direction nationwide, a 5-point drop from the spring, when 31% felt optimistic.

Of course, the public school monopolists, especially the teachers’ unions, are upset about the advancement of school choice, but their reasons are baseless. One argument they use is that choice increases segregation. American Federation of Teachers’ president Randi Weingarten nonsensically claims school choice was designed to keep schools segregated.

Wrong.

Researcher Greg Forster states that ten empirical studies have examined private school choice programs and their effect on segregation. Nine of these studies found that the programs reduced segregation, while one found no noticeable impact. None of the studies indicated that choice encourages racial discrimination.

No matter. The teachers’ unions, realizing they are losing in the court of public opinion, have resorted to litigation in various state courts. Wyoming, Missouri, Utah, South Carolina, and Montana have faced legal action from the unions, which are desperately afraid that parental choice will severely impact their bottom line.

So far, the unions’ efforts have been successful in two states.

In Wyoming, lawmakers launched the state’s first K-12 education savings account (ESA) program last year, beginning with the 2025-2026 school year. The $7,000 accounts can be used for private school tuition, tutors, homeschooling, or other education-related expenses. Nearly 4,000 students applied for them this fall.

However, the Wyoming Education Association, representing about 6,000 public school teachers, opposes using taxpayer dollars for a private option. In a lawsuit filed in June, the union and nine parents sued the state, arguing that the Steamboat Legacy Scholarship Act is unconstitutional because it violates a state regulation requiring a “complete and uniform system of public instruction.” The union was successful when a District Court judge issued a preliminary injunction against the voucher program in July.

In Utah, the state affiliate of the National Education Association successfully sued the state last year, arguing that the Utah Fits All Scholarship Program violates the state constitution by diverting tax revenue to private schools that aren’t free, accessible to all students, and supervised by the state board of education. The Utah Supreme Court is scheduled to review an appeal later this year.

In summary, we are engaged in a turf war. Parents, whose primary concern is their children’s education, are battling the establishment, particularly the teachers’ unions, whose aim is to protect their profits and maintain their toxic influence over K-12 education.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 18:55

Trump-MbS Meeting Was Strained Behind Closed Doors: 'Disappointment & Irritation'

Axios reported some new details this week related to the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House.

There were more tensions in the private dialogue between the two leaders than previously known, and some significant disagreements centered on policy toward Israel.

While the two leaders exchanged compliments in front of the cameras, aspects of the private discussion were strained, Axios noted. Officials described Trump as being frustrated by the resistance he encountered from the crown prince on joining the Abraham Accords.

Bin Salman presented his stance that a firm commitment toward a two-state solution involving the Palestinians must be made for Saudi Arabia to join the accords.

Behind closed doors the crown prince reportedly pushed back when Trump pressed him to formally join the Abraham Accords which establishes normalization with Israel.

via Al Jazeera

MbS reportedly argued that he has to represent his people at a moment Saudi public sentiment has turned sharply against Israel in the aftermath the Gaza war.

But Trump had "pressed hard" on the issue in the November 18 meeting, Axios underscored. One unnamed admin official explained in the meeting's aftermath, "The best way to say it is disappointment and irritation. The president really wants them to join the Abraham Accord. He tried very hard to talk him. It was an honest discussion. But MBS is a strong man. He stood his ground."

The Saudis are insisting that Israel must agree to "an irreversible, credible and time-bound path" for a Palestinian state, but the Netanyahu government has firmly rejected this possibility, especially in the wake of the Oct.7, 2023 terror attack.

Another US official said, "MBS never said no to normalization. The door is open for doing it later. But the two-state solution is an issue."

In relation to the Hamas Oct.7 attack, there's long been speculation that the terror raids on southern Israel were launched precisely because the militant group was worried that as more and more regional countries join the Abraham Accords, the question of Palestinian statehood would be permanently abandoned.

According to this theory, the brazen and history-altering attack was meant once again to sow deep division among the 'Arab world' and Israel. To some degree, this may have succeeded as a broader geopolitical goal, given the Abraham Accords have indeed been stalled. But it also backfired, given Iran and Hezbollah are more weakened than ever, and the Syrian government was overthrown a year ago. These were all key, well-armed and historic resisters of Israeli expansion and Zionist hegemony. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 18:30

Why No COVID Commission In The US?

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

They were the hardest years of our lives, marked by the dissolution of rights, liberties, and hope. Sadness swept the land, as forced physical isolation and shattered civic life mutated toward mandates to wear masks and eventually to accept a new injection product.

The liturgy of life fundamentally disrupted, we lost track of the passage of time and saw our social and community networks decimated. Government spending and money printing exploded as never before. For many the whole period feels like a blur, one that resulted in a dramatic devaluation in the value of income and savings.

I speak of course of the COVID years, 2020–2023. Agencies at all levels cancelled religious holidays, closed small businesses and schools, imposed limits on house parties, and overturned traditional election protocols. It went on for three years. It was in the name of health but health collapsed during this period. It all feels like madness in retrospect.

People these days barely want to speak about the subject, because it is still somewhat divisive but mainly because it is deeply painful. It was this way following the Great War, a trauma on a similar scale. Most people just wanted it to go away, and to put it all in the rearview mirror.

That said, when people do open up about what happened, they share shocking stories of personal tragedy and loss. Only this past week, a man told me about his dream business he had started 10 years ago and then built into a growing wholesale machine with 200-plus employees and bright prospects ahead. With the lockdowns, all orders for his project stopped. The company collapsed in two weeks. All employees lost their jobs and he and his wife lost their dreams. They divorced soon after.

Today his idea and a version of his project is in most major stories, as manufactured by huge corporate enterprises. He changed professions and is still digging out from a financial hole.

It’s just one story but something replicated in some form millions of times over. Kids who experienced this will never forget it, and parents have few choices but to describe the whole thing as a time when adults lost their minds.

Remember that all of this happened not just in the United States but in 194 countries around the world. The policies were strikingly similar everywhere. It was a time in which human interaction was described as disease spreading and therefore to be avoided in the interest of “slowing the spread.”

Only a few nations resisted: Sweden, Tanzania, Nicaragua, and Belarus. Sweden in particular experienced far better outcomes even from the targeted pathogen, the best in Europe. The population in general avoided trauma.

After all this time, one might suppose that the world would be awash in apologies along with pledges never to do anything like this again. One possible path to making this happen might be a COVID Commission. The United States has never formed one. Early on, there was talk about such a thing but it never came to fruition. Even now, there are no plans for such a thing.

This is for a reason. An honest report, one informed and written by independent researchers, would implicate both political parties, most universities, many government agencies, the Big Tech and pharmaceutical sectors, churches and schools that went along, in addition to a massive swath of incumbent elites in foundations.

Sadly, that is just not going to happen. I wish it were otherwise. Any official commission report written as a coverup would be dead on arrival. Not even the establishment is that dumb.

I would like to live in a society in which mistakes are admitted, brutality is repudiated, institutions adapt in light of failure, and leadership is mature enough to seek forgiveness for wrongdoing. We hope for a narrative of history that is self-correcting in real time: error followed by pledges to improve and sin by repentance and propitiation.

Sadly none of that is to be.

Somehow it came to be that the United Kingdom did put together an official commission.

It has spent upwards of 500 million pounds and taken years in testimony. The second part of the report just appeared. It features a helpful summary of its conclusions for those who do not want to slog through the entire thing. It is one that could have been predicted from the start. It comes down to four words:

“Too little, too late.”

Translation: The commission has decided that the UK waited too long to issue stay-at-home orders and shut businesses, churches, and schools. If it had acted in February rather than March 2020 and with greater ferocity, they have declared, somehow the outcomes would have been better. In short, there is no regret at all except for one point: it should have been more and sooner.

They know this because computer models tell them so.

Sure, the report admits, there were all sorts of mistakes in coordination, communication, and costing. This is bureaucratic speak for: we need more money next time. The report takes no issue with the disease modeling that gave rise to the lockdowns in the first place. The ineffective shot is not addressed in this particular report but we can anticipate what later reports will say: its only failure traces to slow uptake and vaccine resistance.

The huge lesson: “Governments must act swiftly and decisively to stand any chance of stopping the spread of a virus.”

In other words, they are going to do it again, more quickly and harder.

There is a feature of this report that simply breaks my heart. This is because I seriously doubt that anyone really believes in the truth of it. The claim is utterly unsustainable in light of any and all evidence. The Swedish experience is not discussed in any depth. It cannot because the Swedish experience disproves everything in this report.

I’ve been writing about this topic for five going on six years. My first piece was from January 2020, and it warned that if governments try to take on the microbial kingdom it will lose and utterly discredit themselves. I said this before we even knew of the thousand-fold differential in medically significant impact between the young and elderly and infirm. Even if the virus had been more serious, the result would have been the same.

Another reason that this report is demoralizing: tens and hundreds of thousands of actual experts the world over have debunked the pandemic response in countless numbers of papers, articles, and books. Have these protests made no difference at all? Are officials at all levels going to pretend forever as if these do not exist?

I don’t know the answer but this much I know: We cannot look to official statements of these sorts to codify truth. Instead, we can only count on them to be self-serving, a means of protecting the reputations and jobs of the very people who made such dreadful errors.

Just as no one should look to government to stop a fast-spreading and fast-mutating respiratory virus, we should not be looking to government commissions to admit error and pledge to do better next time. Just as the pandemic response discredited so many institutions, kicking off a new age of widespread distrust of everything and everyone, so too will more such reports entrench our culture of incredulity.

Given these conditions, the United States is better off with no commission at all. That said, it would be good for at least one legislative body to speak clearly and plainly about all that went wrong. My choice would be the U.S. Senate.

Maybe there is some chance of that with enough push from the grassroots. So long as there are no admissions of wrongdoing, there will be no healing from the anger and distrust that characterizes our times. This problem is not going away. As time has rolled on, the reality of what happened is ever more present in our lives.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 18:05

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Increased Refinance Activity Drives Mortgage Prepayments to 3.5-Year High

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... oday released the October 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends.

“Softening mortgage rates expanded the pool of refinance candidates in October, pushing prepayments to their highest level in three and a half years,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “This trend was largely driven by people who purchased homes at elevated rates in recent years seizing the opportunity to lower their monthly payments.”

“Overall mortgage health remains solid, with continued improvement in delinquency rates across all stages,” continued Walden. “While foreclosure activity has ticked up, levels remain historically low. This uptick is driven by a rise in FHA foreclosures along with the resumption in VA foreclosures following last year's moratorium."

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• Delinquencies improved: The national delinquency rate fell by 7 basis points (bps) in October to 3.34%. This is down 11 bps from the same time last year and 53 bps below the October 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark.

• Broad strength in delinquency rates: Performance improved across the board, with both early-stage (30-day) and late-stage (90+ day) delinquencies declining during the month.

• Prepayments reached a multi-year high: The single month mortality (SMM) rate, which tracks prepayments, rose by 27 bps in October to 1.01%. This marks the highest level in 3.5 years and an increase of 16 bps from last year when interest rates were at similar levels.

• Foreclosure activity trending upward: Although October foreclosure starts slowed by 9.8% from the prior month, the overall trend continues to rise. Foreclosure inventory is up by 37,000 (+19%) year over year, and foreclosure sales have increased by 1,900 (+32%) from last year's levels.

• Government loans driving foreclosure growth: While foreclosure activity remains muted by historical standards, the number of loans in active foreclosure hit its highest level since early 2023, driven by a notable rise in FHA foreclosures (+50% YoY) along with a resumption of VA activity following last year's moratorium.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

Is A Trump UFO Bombshell Incoming?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Documentary filmmaker Dan Farah has boldly predicted that President Trump could be the first world leader to spill the beans on UFOs, dropping a “major announcement” about non-human tech and extraterrestrial intel—sparking feverish speculation: Is this engineered hype to divert from global flashpoints, or a seismic shift toward transparency? 

Farah made the claim on Joe Rogan’s podcast while promoting a new documentary titled The Age of Disclosure. As Farah teases amnesty for black-budget insiders, is Trump poised to unmask aliens, or is this another misdirect?

Farah asserted: “I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens soon after the film comes out — the sitting president has to step to the microphone and say: humanity is not alone in the universe. We have recovered technology of non-human origin. So have other nations. There is a high-stakes, secret cold war race to reverse engineer this technology. We need to win this race.” 

UFO expert Dan Farah just told Joe Rogan he believes a sitting president will finally come clean about the UAP phenomenon…and he thinks that president will be Donald Trump.

Then he dropped a bombshell about what Trump has already tasked Tulsi Gabbard with investigating.… pic.twitter.com/TsMb2WRm2q

— Overton (@overton_news) November 21, 2025

Rogan quipped, “I think Trump might be the only guy that’s willing to do something that crazy.” 

Farah replied: “I know he is aware of what people in his administration say in the film… And I know that they are discussing internally how they’re going to react to the film publicly.”

The filmmaker also claimed that Trump was contemplating basic disclosure during his first tenure as President and has now tasked United States Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard with getting to the bottom of what is gong on with the UFO/UAP phenomenon.

Throughout the podcast he detailed how insiders have revealed to him that there have been multiple UFO contact events with the U.S. military, including multiple face to face encounters with non-human entities.

Dan Farah tells Joe Rogan there have been multiple UFO contact events with our military and even describes the types of beings involved. ? pic.twitter.com/weBCa1fbIz

— Astral? (@The_Astral_) November 21, 2025

The Age of Disclosure director/producer Dan Farah tells Joe Rogan the U.S. conducted nuclear weapon tests with the specific intent to recover crashed UFOs.

Farah: “One of the realizations early on was that atomic weapon testing has a ripple effect that can down these things. So… pic.twitter.com/6TVlvi9tGo

— UAP James (@UAPJames) November 21, 2025

Full interview here:

Farah’s call for “amnesty” for UFO cover-up insiders mirrors Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s previous on-camera plea: “I’m not trying to punish anyone. I need to know what they learned, because taxpayers paid for this and it’s in our interest to know what’s going on.” 

But is this real reckoning or red herring? Intelligence Whistleblower Edward Snowden’s warned in 2023 that such flaps are “engineered” to bury scandals like Nord Stream.

“I wish it were aliens,” but it’s bait to “wipe the infinitely more awkward Seymour Hersh story from the headlines,” he noted at the time.

Farah also claimed that according to insiders, over a trillion dollars has been poured into “reverse-engineering” recovered craft.

Ex-intel officer Luis Elizondo’s 2024 drone-UFO intercept revelations—“true UAP events followed by a Department of Defense response”—have hinted at a hidden arms race.

In 2023 the NSC claimed that UAPs are having a “real impact” on pilots—claiming “there’s something our pilots are seeing.”

White House National Security Council Coordinator, Admiral John Kirby was asked about Senator Schumer’s UAP legislation. ?

-White House takes it seriously

“Some of these phenomena we know have already had an impact on our training ranges.” pic.twitter.com/CNeJ8Efj6z

— UAP News (@HighPeaks77) July 17, 2023

Under Trump, could this be significant truth-telling, unearthing black-budget secrets? Or, as Snowden posited, another “distraction” from wars or woes? 

Farah’s hope—Trump as the “only guy” wild enough—clashes with skeptics seeing psyop. 

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 15:45

'Seditious Six' Democrats Freak Out Over FBI Investigation

Democrats are losing it after the Trump administration opened an investigation into six Democratic lawmakers following the posting of a Nov. 18 social-media video in which they advised U.S. service members that they are obligated to follow lawful, not illegal, orders under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

The video - featuring lawmakers with national security backgrounds - reflected a familiar line of Democratic criticism of President Donald Trump during his term: questioning the president’s adherence to constitutional constraints and norms of military authority.

We want to speak directly to members of the Military and the Intelligence Community.

The American people need you to stand up for our laws and our Constitution.

Don’t give up the ship. pic.twitter.com/N8lW0EpQ7r

— Sen. Elissa Slotkin (@SenatorSlotkin) November 18, 2025

On Monday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he may take disciplinary action against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who participated in the video and served as a U.S. Navy captain and astronaut before entering public office. Hegseth directed Navy Secretary John Phelan to review Kelly’s remarks and provide guidance by Dec. 10.

The video made by the “Seditious Six” was despicable, reckless, and false. Encouraging our warriors to ignore the orders of their Commanders undermines every aspect of “good order and discipline.” Their foolish screed sows doubt and confusion — which only puts our warriors in danger.

Five of the six individuals in that video do not fall under @DeptofWar jurisdiction (one is CIA and four are former military but not “retired”, so they are no longer subject to UCMJ). However, Mark Kelly (retired Navy Commander) is still subject to UCMJ—and he knows that. -Pete Hegseth

The following day, all six lawmakers said the FBI had asked to interview them. In addition to Kelly, the Democrats are: Reps. Jason Crow of Colorado, a former Army officer; Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, a former Air Force captain; Chris Deluzio of Pennsylvania, a former Navy lieutenant who served in Iraq; Maggie Goodlander of New Hampshire, a Navy reserve veteran; and Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, who previously worked at the CIA. Slotkin said the outreach came from the FBI’s counterterrorism division, Punchbowl News reports.

“No amount of intimidation or harassment will ever stop us from doing our jobs and honoring our Constitution,” the four House members said in a joint statement. The FBI declined to comment on the agency’s inquiry.

While Kelly remains subject to court-martial as a retired naval officer, pursuing charges against a sitting senator for public remarks would have little historical precedent. The matter could ultimately require judicial interpretation.

The case raises constitutional questions, particularly under Article I, which affords lawmakers certain protections for statements made in the course of legislative - or in some interpretations, public - duties. Legal scholars note that this dynamic may force the courts to balance military conduct statutes with congressional speech protections.

GOP Reaction and Divisions

With Congress out of session for Thanksgiving, Republican lawmakers have been slow to offer comment, though two GOP senators voiced immediate concern about the inquiry.

Sen. John Curtis (R-UT) said he respects Kelly personally, while Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said that “to accuse him and other lawmakers of treason and sedition for rightfully pointing out that servicemembers can refuse illegal orders is reckless and flat-out wrong.”

On Truth Social, Mr. Trump reacted sharply to the video, accusing the Democratic lawmakers of “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!” He also amplified a user repost calling for their hanging.

The controversy emerges at a time when both Hegseth and FBI Director Kash Patel face heightened internal scrutiny. Hegseth’s authority has been unusually overshadowed by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, a Yale Law acquaintance of Vice President JD Vance. Driscoll has been tasked with exploring diplomatic channels in Ukraine amid ongoing hostilities with Russia.

Patel, meanwhile, has drawn criticism for deploying local FBI tactical resources for personal security purposes involving his girlfriend. MSNOW reported that Patel’s tenure atop the FBI “may be numbered,” however the Trump administration pushed back, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posting on X: "This story is completely made up. In fact, when this Fake News published, I was in the Oval Office, where President Trump was meeting with his law enforcement team, including FBI Director Kash Patel."

Trump later said that Patel is "doing a great job." 

Politically, Hegseth’s posture may inadvertently bolster Kelly, who is considered by some Democrats as a potential 2028 presidential contender. But the public exposure has carried risk for the Democrats involved: several have reported an escalation in threats. Slotkin now receives security protection from Capitol Police.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 15:25

Forged Letters, Luxury Lifestyle: Takeaways So Far From Trial Of Accused Chinese Agent And Hochul, Cuomo Aide

Authored by Nichaolas Zifcak via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In the trial of Linda Sun, the former aide to New York governors who is accused of acting as a Chinese agent, the court has heard evidence that Sun forged the signature of Gov. Kathy Hochul, had close contact with Chinese consular staff, and purchased luxury items with payouts from China.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's former aide, Linda Sun (R), and her husband, Christopher Hu, leave federal court after their arraignment in New York City on Sept. 3, 2024. Corey Sipkin/AP Photo

The former aide to Hochul and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was indicted in 2024 over allegedly using her position to push the agenda of the Chinese Communist Party in return for millions of dollars paid to her husband’s business. Sun has pleaded not guilty.

Sun is on trial in federal court in the Eastern District of New York in the New York City borough of Brooklyn, with former colleagues and coworkers taking the stand to testify.

After almost two weeks of a trial that is expected to run until mid-December, here are some key takeaways so far.

Delegation Invitation Letters Allegedly Forged

Federal prosecutors alleged that Sun put together an official invitation letter to help Chinese officials travel to New York state. Without approval, she allegedly signed then-Lt. Gov. Hochul’s signature on the letter, which was on official letterhead. According to the prosecution, officials from Henan Province, China, used that letter to apply for visas to travel to the United States.

Prosecutors showed the letter to Jeffrey Lewis, who worked for Hochul for 13 years, including as her chief of staff. Lewis was authorized to use her signature.

Lewis testified that the signature on the invitation for Henan officials was not Hochul’s. He explained that Hochul connects and merges the “h” and “y” in Kathy; that the “h” in Hochul is connected with the “o”; and that the “h,“ ”u,“ and ”l” run together.

Lewis also testified that the only Chinese delegation invitation letter he could recall that Gov. Cuomo requested Lt. Gov. Hochul write was one in 2017, for a delegation from Jiangxi Province.

Lewis also pointed out that the alleged forged letters were on a generic letterhead from the governor’s office, which is distinct from the letterhead of the lieutenant governor, which was used in the Jiangxi letter. In 2018 and 2019, the years in which the Henan letters were issued, Sun worked in the office of the governor.

Liaison With Chinese Consular Staff

Prosecutors presented evidence suggesting that Sun prioritized requests of the Chinese Consulate over her duty to the state of New York.

In 2019, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen traveled to New York City and held a banquet on July 12. Taiwan’s representatives there invited Cuomo to join the event.

Prosecutors presented emails at trial that showed that when Sun received the banquet invitation for the governor, her first action was not to forward it to the governor’s scheduler, but to immediately alert the Chinese Consulate.

The emails showed that Sun received the invitation on July 5 at 6:32 p.m. One minute later, at 6:33 p.m., she emailed her contact at the Chinese Consulate in New York City, Li Li Hu, with the text “FYI.”

The following day, Sun replied to the representative for Taiwan and declined the invitation on the governor’s behalf.

According to Jessica Pulver, who worked in the governor’s Invitations Office in 2019, the office never received the invitation for Cuomo to join the banquet with Tsai. In testimony at the trial, Pulver explained that the expectation was that all invitations for the governor would be forwarded.

The incident is one example of the close collaborative relationship Sun had with the Chinese Consulate, according to prosecutors. When Consul General Zhang Qiyue left her post in New York City in May 2018, she sent Sun a farewell letter that ended with, “Your personal friendship and kind support will always be cherished.”

Luxury Goods

During FBI searches of Sun’s and her parents’ homes, the FBI found luxury cars, watches, and designer handbags. These items, prosecutors said, suggest means beyond that of her state employee salary, which in 2021 was $144,000.

In addition, documents and gifts from Chinese officials show a pattern of close ties with Chinese officials, according to prosecutors.

In July 2024, the FBI searched Sun’s home in Manhasset, New York, and her parents’ apartment in the Flushing neighborhood of the New York City borough of Queens, as well as their TD Bank deposit box.

During those searches, the FBI found luxury goods including a Rolex Submariner, a Patek Philippe Aquanaut watch, and several Hermès Birkin handbags.

Authorities also found several high-end cars—a 2024 Ferrari Roma, a 2024 Range Rover, a 2022 Mercedes GLB SUV, and an Audi Q5—as well as a deposit box with $130,000 in cash.

FBI agents also testified to finding a number of documents in Chinese and objects associated with the Chinese regime, including a 1-kilogram friendship coin of solid silver, likely worth more than $1,600 today.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 15:05

Were The Brits Behind Bloomberg's Russian-US Leaks?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned earlier the same day as Bloomberg’s report that the Brits are hellbent on discrediting Trump in order to undermine his latest peace efforts for resolving the conflict from which they profit.

Bloomberg shared what it claimed to be the transcripts of calls between Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin’s top foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov as well as between Ushakov and Putin’s other advisor Kirill Dmitriev about the Ukrainian peace process. The gist of the Witkoff-Ushakov call was Witkoff’s proposal to have Putin suggest a Gaza-like 20-point peace deal for Ukraine during an upcoming call with Trump while the Ushakov-Dmitriev one implied that the leaked draft was Russian-influenced.

Ushakov declined to comment on his talks with Witkoff but said that “Somebody tapped, somebody leaked, but not us” whereas Dmitriev flat-out described his purported call with Ushakov as “fake”. For his part, Trump defended Witkoff’s alleged “coaching” of Ushakov on how Putin should deal with him by reminding everyone “That’s what a dealmaker does. You got to say, ‘Look, they want this – you got to convince them with this.’ That’s a very standard form of negotiations.”

As regards the possibility that the draft framework was Russian-influenced, the notion of which has been pushed by the legacy media to discredit the proposed mutual compromises therein, that was already debunked. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as National Security Advisor, said that “The peace proposal was authored by the U.S. It is offered as a strong framework for ongoing negotiations It is based on input from the Russian side. But it is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine.”

Therefore, neither transcript is scandalous even if their contents were accurately reported, yet the question arises of who might have tapped and leaked these calls. Intriguingly, earlier the same day that Bloomberg later published their report, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned that the UK “aims to undermine Trump’s efforts to resolve the conflict by discrediting him.” Readers will recall the UK’s role in Russiagate, which they conspired with the CIA, FBI, and the Clinton camp to cook up to against him.

Seeing as how they can no longer collude in this way with their three prior conspirators, the UK might therefore have resorted to leaking those two calls with Ushakov that they might have tapped (possibly among many others) as a last-ditch attempt to discredit the latest unprecedented progress towards peace. This provocation might also have been meant to make Trump panic and fire Witkoff out of fear of another Russiagate 2.0 investigation if this scandal helps the Democrats flip Congress next year.

Firing Witkoff, who’s been central to the recent progress towards peace, could ruin the process right at its most pivotal moment as Zelensky is reportedly considering meeting with Trump very soon to finalize the details of the US-mediated peace framework with Russia. By holding firm, Trump is therefore obstructing efforts to ruin everything that he’s achieved thus far on a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal and consequently revive the Russiagate hoax for helping the Democrats during next year’s midterms.

Accordingly, Bloomberg’ Russian-US leaks can be considered a British intelligence operation for derailing the peace process and perpetuating the conflict from which the UK profits, not to mention meddling in the midterms by giving a fake news-driven boost to the Democrats. Trump revealed that Witkoff will meet with Putin on Monday and might even be joined by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who helped negotiate the Gaza deal, so more British provocations are expected out of desperation to ruin their talks.

*  *  * BLACK FRIDAY STARTS NOW

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 14:45

Legal Cases Challenging Trump's Agenda - Key Issues To Watch

Authored by Stacy Robinson and Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A flood of litigation continues to hamper President Donald Trump’s agenda, with hundreds of lawsuits challenging his actions on gender issues, tariffs, immigration, National Guard deployment, and other matters.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

A common theme of many lawsuits is the claim that the president has overstepped his executive authority.

Some of the cases have already reached the Supreme Court, where Trump scored a major win in June and a series of wins on the emergency docket.

Eventual decisions on outstanding cases could have long-lasting effects. If Trump wins, he can press forward with his key policies and the court will have carved out a clearer scope of executive power.

Here are some of the key issues, the legal battlegrounds in which they will be fought, hints on how judges might rule, and their implications for the future.

Tariffs, Emergency Economic Powers

Trump’s broad tariff agenda sparked a legal battle that has been heard by the Supreme Court. Judgment is pending.

A group of states and businesses have challenged the tariffs the president imposed on Canada and Mexico over their failure to police drug trafficking and illegal immigration at their borders, as well as the reciprocal tariffs he imposed on scores of other countries.

Trump issued those tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows the president to take actions such as regulating imports during a national emergency. Before Trump, presidents had used the law only to impose sanctions.

The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled in May that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.

In a separate case in May, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s tariffs did not address the issue of drug trafficking, and were therefore unjustified. It also ruled that the IEEPA does not give Trump power to impose “unlimited” tariffs because that power belongs to Congress and has not been delegated to the president.

Those cases eventually reached the Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments on Nov. 5 and is yet to issue its decision.

During oral arguments, some justices expressed skepticism that Congress had authorized the type of tariffs Trump imposed.

The Supreme Court is also considering whether the law—if it does, in fact, authorize Trump’s tariffs—upsets the nation’s separation of powers and is therefore unconstitutional.

“Congress, as a practical matter, can’t get this power back once it’s handed it over to the President,” Justice Neil Gorsuch said. “It’s a one-way ratchet toward the gradual, but continual, accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”

At one point during the Nov. 5 hearing, Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh seemed more sympathetic to the administration’s position. They questioned how, as one attorney argued, the law could allow Trump to impose something as large as a complete embargo but not a small tariff.

The U.S. Court of International Trade in New York City on May 29, 2025. The court ruled that the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not give President Donald Trump power to impose “unlimited” tariffs. Spencer Platt/Getty Images National Guard, Posse Comitatus

Citing high crime rates, Trump has attempted to federalize and deploy National Guard troops to major cities across the United States.

Officials in Memphis, Tennessee, welcomed the move, but state and local governments have sued to block the action in Chicago, Washington, Los Angeles, and Portland, Oregon.

The lawsuits challenge Trump’s invocation of Section 12406 of Title 10 of the U.S. Code, which allows presidents to federalize state National Guard troops under certain conditions.

The Trump administration has pointed to two of those conditions in particular: when the president is unable to execute the law using regular forces and when there is a rebellion or danger of a rebellion.

Trump’s challengers have found limited success in courts, winning lower court blocks but facing hurdles in the appeals process.

Most recently, Judge Jia Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled on Nov. 20 that the president must end troop deployment in Washington, saying that the president can deploy troops only to address a specific situation, not for “whatever reason” he chooses. She paused that order to give the government time to appeal.

Judges in Oregon and Illinois also blocked Trump’s deployments while expressing doubt that the National Guard was needed to address crime in those areas. And a California judge ruled in September that Trump had violated a law known as the Posse Comitatus Act, which prevents federal troops from engaging in civilian law enforcement.

The administration is appealing each of those cases, and the Illinois ruling has reached the Supreme Court. The court has requested a briefing, asking both sides to clarify their interpretation of the line in Section 12406 stating that the president may call up the National Guard if he is “unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States.”

National Guard members patrol the National Mall in Washington on Aug. 27, 2025. On Nov. 20, Judge Jia Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the president to end the troop deployment, ruling that he may deploy troops for only a specific situation, not “whatever reason” he chooses. She then stayed her order to give the government time to appeal. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times Illegal Immigrants

Trump has focused on enforcing immigration laws, including through a ramp-up of deportations.

Previously, expedited removals were reserved for illegal immigrants detained within 100 miles of the U.S. border and within 14 days of illegal entry.

When he took office, Trump expanded rapid deportations to include illegal immigrants nationwide who had been in the country longer than two weeks, but less than two years.

On Jan. 22, advocacy group Make the Road New York sued, arguing that illegal immigrants were being removed without due process. A federal judge blocked the government’s policy in August, and on Nov. 22, a court of appeals declined to put that ruling on hold pending appeal.

Trump’s executive order in January revoking birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants was challenged by numerous plaintiffs across the country. Those challenges were consolidated into Trump v. CASA.

When the case reached the Supreme Court, the justices did not rule on the legality of the executive order or the question of birthright citizenship, but instead ruled that such nationwide blocks—called universal or nationwide injunctions—are likely an abuse of lower courts’ power.

This ruling signaled to lower courts that they should issue such nationwide injunctions against a president’s policies sparingly.

President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the James S. Brady Briefing Room at the White House on June 27, 2025. Mehmet Eser/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images Alien Enemies Act

Part of Trump’s deportation plan involved using the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, which allows swift deportations during an invasion, to remove alleged criminals and transnational gang members from groups such as Tren de Aragua.

Trump invoked that law and used it against the Venezuelan gang in March, but lower courts temporarily blocked the plan in April when a group of deportees sued.

The Supreme Court at first upheld the block, but later ruled that the Venezuelan plaintiffs were each required to bring a habeas petition individually challenging his or her removal and must be given time to do so.

In one ongoing case, W.M.M. v. Trump, an appeals court ruled 2–1 that the mass illegal entry of Tren de Aragua gang members does not necessarily constitute an “invasion” as defined by the Alien Enemies Act.

Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham of the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, dissenting from the majority, highlighted the current friction between Trump and the judiciary.

“The majority’s approach to this case is not only unprecedented—it is contrary to more than 200 years of precedent,” he wrote in his dissent.

“It reflects a view of the Judicial power that is not only muscular—it is herculean. And it reflects a view of the Executive power that is not only diminutive—it is made subservient to the foreign-policy and public-safety hunches of every federal district judge in the country.”

The Fifth Circuit vacated that ruling at the end of September and plans to hold an en banc hearing; the full slate of circuit judges may reach a different conclusion.

In another case, J.G.G. v. Trump, a federal judge ordered the government to halt deportation flights headed to El Salvador’s Terrorist Confinement Center.

The judge is pursuing a criminal contempt-of-court inquiry against the Trump administration, alleging that the order was ignored.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 14:25

It’s that time of year again when families gather to feast on bountiful harvests and to give thanks for all of our blessings.

This year, skip the “Vibes” and instead focus on market data. Don’t lose sight of nuances and shades of grey; they don’t make for great memes, but they do lead to a better understanding of what’s going on.

Here are ten nuanced, slightly contrarian ideas for you to chew over:

1. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a once-in-a-generation transformational technology boom that will drive both the economy and the stock market higher for years to come.

Too many people fail to recognize how challenging it is to identify these generational market turning points in real time.

My favorite takes on AI have come from Derek Thompson and Timothy Lee, who looked into the 12 main arguments Pro & Con, and Benjamin Riley, who aims to “help people understand human cognition and artificial intelligence.”

2. INFLATION: Everything costs more this year — except for the Turkey.

The largest fiscal stimulus since World War 2 led to the largest inflation surge since the 1970s. The rate of price increases rose by 9% (peaking June 2022) before falling back to 3% nearly as quickly. There were numerous causes of inflation, but the top of the list was the pandemic supply issues and the huge fiscal stimulus.

People confuse the rate of price change with prices. We had high inflation; today, we have low(ish) inflation, but we still retain higher prices. Everything is much more expensive today, even with inflation way down. Low Inflation and High Prices are not mutually exclusive.

CPI Inflation is in the 2-3% range today, but it is ticking upwards, creating difficulties for those on the FOMC who want to cut rates.

3. SUPPLY & DEMAND: We may not have structural inflation as we did in the 1970s, but we do have a structural imbalance in supply and demand of many critical goods and services.

A few significant examples:

Single-family homes Used cars Skilled labor Rare Earth minerals Renewable energy

Until supply catches up with demand, those prices will remain high. And that is before we get to health care and education costs.

4. ENERGY: The inflation of the 1970s was structural, caused in large part by the Arab Oil Embargo. In contrast, the United States is a net energy exporter today. In the 1970s, energy accounted for about 10% of the average household budget; the Chicago Fed found it peaked at nearly 14% in the early 1980s.

Household energy costs are about half of those levels today (5-6%), even as energy consumption has increased significantly. Every power-hungry device, from automobiles to HVAC systems to appliances, is now many times more efficient than in the past.

The wildcard is increased demand from power-hungry data centers…

5. CRYPTO CRASH: Given the embrace of crypto by the President (and POTUS’s family), much of Bitcoin 2025 gains can be attributed to this administration’s policies. We should not be surprised by the correlation between the President’s political fortunes / approval ratings, and the price of Bitcoin.

The President has had a terrible month; from the election thumping to the fallout with MTG to losing multiple legal cases (Tariffs at SCOTUS, Comey / James case dismissals), it’s no surprise that Bitcoin has suffered a 30% crash this month as well:

6. TARIFFS: Are fascinating: They cause temporary inflation spikes and permanent higher prices. There is no getting around it – any additional tax on imported goods is a source of increased prices. And as we have seen before, even domestic producers will raise prices (Greedflation) if they believe consumers won’t balk.

The good news: If the Supreme Court arguments were anything to go on, many of the Tariffs are likely to get struck down.

7. RATE CUTS: You can make a solid case either way – inflation remains stubborn at (or over) 3%, but there are signs of labor market softness, slowing consumer sales, and mediocre sentiment.

Expectations had fallen to a ~20% chance of a rate cut – until yesterday’s poor data. Now, we are back to an 80% chance of a December cut. Beyond that is anyone’s guess…

8. BUBBLES: By definition, it takes a crowd to create a bubble. Can you recall the public, the media, or even the Fed identifying a bubble on a timely basis? (Me neither).

Asked differently, can investors rationally believe that prices are not entirely irrational? If your answer is yes, then it’s likely not a bubble.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the AI bubble debate is Alphabet (GOOGL) passing Nvidia (NVDA) YTD returns:

: 

9. RECESSION: People hate inflation, but the alternative was a deep and long-lasting pandemic recession. We avoided a 10-12% unemployment rate, but the cost was 9% inflation.

Consider the alternative, had both the Trump and Biden admins not cranked up the fiscal spend, people would have been furious at the failure to do anything1. It’s a Lose/Lose; whatever choice got made, half the population would have been furious.

As angry as people are over high prices, they would have been even angrier at a do-nothing government letting an ugly recession take hold.

10. VALUATIONS: The Mag 7 remains pricey, even as Nvidia slides 13% off its highs. Its expensive, but it also generates $57 billion in quarterly revenues! Some sectors are extremely overpriced, others are more reasonable. The S&P 493 — S&P 500 minus the Magnificent 7 — is at 20.7 P/E. Pricey, but not ridiculous.

Nuance is your friend.

Safe travels!

 

Previously:
The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Make Thanksgiving Great Again! (November 23, 2023)

Revisiting Greedflation (November 16, 2023)

Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022)

Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

How to Talk to a Fox News Viewer (November 22, 2018)

How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

 

 

The post 10 Datapoints for Thanksgiving appeared first on The Big Picture.

"It's Utilities Versus Rent" - Data Centers Send Energy Prices Soaring

The surge in data center construction to power today’s AI and cloud computing demands has sent electricity prices skyrocketing over the last few years. And, as Bloomberg reports, it is only getting worse.

With electricity costs now as much as 267% higher compared to five years ago in some parts of the US, fingers are being pointed directly at data center activity for blame. And while some - especially generously funded lobbies - are eager to dissemble and distort, claiming that on the contrary, electricity prices are barely keeping up with inflation and that data centers have little to no impact on electrical bills, the map below shows that more than 70% of the nodes that recorded pricing increases are located within 50 miles of significant data center activity.

Take Nicole Pasture: the Baltimore resident said her utility bills are up 50% over the past year. She is also a judge who rules on rental disputes in the city’s district court and sees people struggling with their power bills.

“It’s utilities versus rent,” she said. “They want to stay in their home, but they also want to keep their lights on.”

New data center construction projects are announced weekly, sometimes every day. Some of the construction timelines have upwards of 100 MW of new data center demand being built only two years from groundbreaking. This has to be contrasted against the rate of new energy generation construction, with the recent vite among PJM Interconnection stakeholders resulting in a failure to even select a plan for how to add data centers to the grid. 

“The voting reflects the nearly impossible challenge of trying to ensure resource adequacy and control ratepayer costs, while also allowing data center development in a market that is already short on generation supply and faces a 5-to-7 year timeline to bring on new large-scale generating resources,” Jon Gordon, a director at Advanced Energy United, a clean energy trade group, said in a bulletin on the meeting.

While some utilities have been able to pass the burden of higher electricity costs onto the owners of the large loads, most of the costs of expanding grid capacity inevitably find their way to consumers.

According to Bloomberg, in northern Virginia, Dominion Energy cited data center demand, inflation and higher fuel costs when asking regulators to raise its customer bills by about $20 a month for the average residential user over the next two years. Dominion also forecasts peak demand would rise by more than 75% by 2039 with data centers. It would be just 10% without.

And it's only getting worse: with hundreds of gigawatts of future power demand from data centers built by companies like Oracle and Microsoft, Goldman writes that "eight out of the 13 US regional power markets are already at or below critical spare capacity levels."

"eight out of the 13 US regional power markets are already at or below critical spare capacity levels." - Goldman https://t.co/YYAGUukfwR pic.twitter.com/eU4XPFAMrp

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 23, 2025

In other words, the electricity crisis is not around the corner: it's here already.

And since surging electricity costs are borne by everyone, the topic is rapidly becoming a political one...

In one year, this will be the most popular chart on this site pic.twitter.com/h93gWXMoNL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 11, 2025

... and we previously highlighted that the blame game has already started between Republicans and Democrats. Yet some localities seem to be more focused on solving the problem than merely grandstanding: consider the case of Texas where most data centers already have their own "behind the meter" onsite power generation, a key step to keeping overall power costs contained.

To prevent skyrocketing electric bills, every state has to follow the Texas example: each data center must have its own "behind the meter" onsite power generation.

“We believe data centers should pay for the full cost of their power,” Dominion Energy spokesperson Aaron Ruby… https://t.co/0u1owTeAs8 pic.twitter.com/8W421s3rzV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 23, 2025

Luckily for US consumers, the race for data center developers to secure behind the meter power is already on, with demand for modular reactors ratcheting higher.

We recently we highlighted the $700 million capital raise for privately-held modular reactor developer X-energy, as Amazon backs their 12-reactor project in Washington State to meet data center demand. We also highlighted the recent announcement between Nano Nuclear and BaRupOn for potentially developing upwards of 1 GW worth of nuclear energy to power the LAMP and Innovation Hub in Texas. Fermi America’s Matador Project, also in Texas, will utilize nuclear energy among other power generation sources, including gas, wind, and solar, to power a massive data center campus using a behind the meter grid.

So while power bills are soaring due to the ongoing avalanche of data center deployment to power the chatbot revolution (because someone has to write junior's high school essay), there is some hope that recent developments will put a lid on just how high the prices rise.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 14:00

Beige Book - November 2025

Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, according to most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, though two Districts noted a modest decline and one reported modest growth. Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient. Some retailers noted a negative impact on consumer purchases from the government shutdown, and auto dealers saw declines in EV sales following the expiration of the federal tax credit. Reports of travel and tourism activity reflected little change in recent weeks, with some contacts noting cautious discretionary spending among consumers. Manufacturing activity increased somewhat, according to most Districts, though tariffs and tariff uncertainty remained a headwind. Revenues in the nonfinancial services sector were mostly flat to down, and reports of loan demand were mixed. Some Districts reported declines in residential construction, while others said it was unchanged, and home sales activity varied. A few Districts noted ongoing recovery in the office real estate market. Conditions in the agriculture and energy sectors were largely stable, though some contacts cited challenges from the low-price environment for oil and for some crops. Community organizations saw increased demand for food assistance, due in part to disruptions in SNAP benefits during the government shutdown. Outlooks were largely unchanged overall. Some contacts noted an increased risk of slower activity in coming months, while some optimism was noted among manufacturers.

Labor Markets

Employment declined slightly over the current period with around half of Districts noting weaker labor demand. Despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more Districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition than through layoffs. In addition, several employers adjusted hours worked to accommodate higher or lower than expected business volume instead of adjusting the number of employees. A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring. Across most Districts, employers had an easier time finding workers, but there were still pockets of difficulty related to certain skilled positions and fewer immigrant workers. Wages generally grew at a modest pace; however, some sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and health care experienced more moderate wage pressure because of a tighter labor supply. Furthermore, rising health insurance premiums continue to put upward pressure on labor costs.

Prices

Prices rose moderately during the reporting period. Input cost pressures were widespread in manufacturing and retail, largely reflecting tariff-induced increases. Some Districts noted rising costs for insurance, utilities, technology, and health care. The extent of passthrough of higher input costs to customers varied, and depended upon demand, competitive pressures, price sensitivity of consumers, and pushback from clients. There were multiple reports of margin compression or firms facing financial strain stemming from tariffs. Prices declined for certain materials, which firms attributed to sluggish demand, deferred tariff implementation, or reduced tariff rates. Looking ahead, contacts largely anticipate upward cost pressures to persist but plans to raise prices in the near term were mixed.
emphasis added

Why Are The Elites Moving Into High Security 'Fortress Communities'

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

The elite aren’t stupid. They can see that our society is coming apart at the seams all around us, and so they want to live some place safe. In fact, for many among the elite security has become the number one priority when choosing a new home. Unfortunately, the vast majority of us do not have the resources to move into high security communities guarded by teams of armed professionals. When things really start hitting the fan, most Americans are just going to have to deal with the chaos that is suddenly erupting all around them.

But for the ultra-wealthy, one of the benefits of having so much money is being able to shut yourself off from the rest of the world.

In Delray Beach, Florida a community known as Stone Creek Ranch has become extremely trendy among the elite for one particular reason.

It has a heavily armed security unit that watches over it 24 hours a day…

On paper, Stone Creek Ranch—a “prestigious” enclave made up of less than 40 luxury homes—is a world away from Miami, Manalapan, and Palm Beach: It offers no beaches, no celebrity-approved nightlife, and no glitzy designer shopping.

Yet it offers one very particular luxury that is proving to be quite the draw among the one percent: total and absolute privacy that is safeguarded by a team of armed professionals who watch over the community 24/7—a majority of whom come from previous jobs in law enforcement or the military.

Prospective residents’ entry into the community is policed just as carefully: Any homebuyers seeking to purchase one of just 37 private residences within Stone Creek are required to go through rigorous criminal background checks before they can even attempt to secure a home there.

Considering how fast conditions in our society are deteriorating, it sounds like a wonderful place.

But you will never get to live there unless you have tens of millions of dollars…

Just last month, Hollywood A-lister Mark Wahlberg made headlines when he dropped $37 million on a newly constructed megamansion inside the enclave — only to be followed weeks later by Rockstar energy drink founder Russ Weiner, who is in contract on two properties in the community, worth a total of $43 million.

Indian Creek Village is another high security community in southern Florida.

The island boasts “a high-tech security system that’s straight out of a spy movie”, and the list of residents includes Tom Brady and Jeff Bezos…

Indian Creek Village, known as the “Billionaire Bunker,” isn’t just another gated community. It’s the ultimate fortress for the ultrarich. Nestled in South Florida’s Biscayne Bay, this private island is where some of the world’s wealthiest people, including Jeff Bezos and Tom Brady, have decided to stake their claim. But living here isn’t just about luxury. It’s about security and lots of it.

You can’t just stroll onto Indian Creek. Not a chance. The island is locked down with a high-tech security system that’s straight out of a spy movie. “The wealthier you become, the more you want perfect security,” Setha Low, director of the Public Space Research Group at CUNY, told Business Insider recently. And Indian Creek delivers. An Israeli-designed radar system rings the island. It’s a system that can detect anyone approaching half a mile away. Cameras are everywhere: hidden in hedges, mounted on poles and linked to a command center that monitors every move.

The police force here? They’re more like personal bodyguards for the residents. With 19 officers for just 89 residents, Indian Creek has a cop-to-citizen ratio that makes New York City look understaffed. And these aren’t your average officers. They’re trained in tactical operations and armed with fully automatic weapons. They also spend most of their time patrolling the island’s perimeter, ensuring no one gets too close.

Once upon a time, the ultra-wealthy preferred living in large cities such as Los Angeles or New York City.

But now everything has changed.

On Twitter, New York City Council Member Vickie Paladino shared a very disturbing incident that just occurred in her area…

Last night in Malba, a large group of individuals from outside my district conducted an illegal ‘takeover’ of a quiet residential street at approximately 12:30am. This is not the first time it’s happened.

A private security guard attempted to calm the situation — he was assaulted by the mob and his vehicle was set on fire. He suffered significant injuries. A local resident was also assaulted.

Response to this incident was less than ideal. Residents reporting the incident to 911 were told that ‘quality of life team’ and 311 should handle the situation. Unacceptable. In fact, these violent street takeovers should be met with maximum force by the police department.

We have NEVER had these problems before. Now it’s an epidemic. What changed? We stopped arresting criminals.

I am meeting this morning with the chief of department and the local precinct at the scene to discuss exactly what happened last night. I have already been assured that Malba will receive four dedicated patrol cars from this point forward, as well as additional security upgrades that we cannot disclose.

However, the city MUST do something to stop this lawlessness. All the speed cameras in the world do absolutely NOTHING to prevent these incidents — we need police response and the most severe consequences for these criminals, not to simply allow them to drive away after they’ve completed their mayhem.

These incidents are happening citywide, and they’re happening because there are no longer any real consequences to this kind of criminality. But let me make something very clear to the criminals — you are risking your lives bringing this chaos into our neighborhoods.

Why would the elite want to live in a place where this sort of thing is happening?

Why would anyone want to live in a place where this sort of thing is happening?

Of course conditions are not just deteriorating in our core urban areas.

In southeastern Wisconsin, thieves from South America are systematically looting home after home…

A wave of high-end residential burglaries across southeastern Wisconsin has prompted a coordinated law enforcement response and drawn political attention at both the local and national levels.

The Mequon Police Department (MPD) says the burglaries share striking similarities, suggesting a professional operation.

The suspects, dressed head to toe in black, with faces covered and gloves on, have entered homes through wooded backyards, often targeting cul-de-sacs or properties near golf courses.

Stolen items include jewelry, designer handbags, watches and cash, all consistent with organized theft groups that target affluent neighborhoods nationwide.

All over the nation, crime and violence are out of control.

If you have the resources to move somewhere more secure, that is probably a good idea.

But of course most of the population doesn’t have the resources to move somewhere more secure.

In fact, we have reached a point where millions upon millions of Americans are just trying to figure out a way to keep the lights on…

Misty Pellew’s family lived in the dark for several days this month.

Pellew’s power was shut off Nov. 13 because of $602 in unpaid bills, the latest in a string of financial humiliations that began six months ago after her husband lost his $20-an-hour excavation job in northeastern Pennsylvania. The recent government shutdown dealt another blow, delaying federal funding for programs that helped the family pay for food and utilities.

Although Pellew’s lights were temporarily turned back on last week, they were set to be disconnected again if she didn’t pay another $102. With an overdrawn bank account, she was bracing to be without power again. Last time, her family ate peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for dinner and slept in hoodies and gloves to keep warm.

This is what life looks like for so many people out there right now.

In New York City, residential power shutoffs are up fivefold compared to one year ago…

In some areas, such as New York City, the surge has been dramatic — with residential shutoffs in August up fivefold from a year ago, utility filings show.

Needless to say, Americans aren’t just getting behind on their power bills.

As economic conditions have steadily gotten worse, delinquency rates have risen to historic levels…

Credit card balances alone jumped $24 billion, reaching an all-time high, while the share of balances in serious delinquency—90 days past due—climbed to a nearly financial-crash level of 7.1 percent.

Auto loans tell a similar story, with serious delinquency rates at 3 percent, the highest since 2010. And a spike in resulting defaults has triggered a wave of repossessions in 2025, with 2.2 million vehicles already repossessed, per figures from the Recovery Database Network (RDN), and forecasts of a record 3 million by year’s end.

“Delinquencies, defaults, and repossessions have shot up in recent years and look alarmingly similar to trends that were apparent before the Great Recession,” the Consumer Federation of America said in a recent report.

When you are drowning in debt, relocating to a better place that will be more secure for your family is nothing but a pipe dream.

Most Americans will have to deal with whatever is ahead wherever they are located right now.

But the ultra-wealthy have enough money to live wherever they want, and the fact that so many of them are choosing to live in “fortress communities” says a lot about where things are heading.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

*  *  * BLACK FRIDAY STARTS NOW

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 13:40

Huge Explosion Kills 5 At Arms Depot In Idlib, Syria

On Wednesday a huge explosion rocked the town of Kafr Takharim in Idlib province in northwestern Syria, killing five people and injuring nine others, according to regional sources.

The blast and resulting large plume of smoke over the town unleashed immediate speculation that it could have been a US or coalition airstrike targeting terrorist entities. Israel has also frequently bombed Syria of late, so there is that possibility as well, though the Israelis don't typically bomb that far north near the Turkish border.

However, AFP is citing government security forces who say the deadly explosion was the result of an accidental detonation of a weapons depot.

Image source: Levant24

All of the deceased were workers at or near the weapons storage site, and it was "caused by a warehouse containing missiles and ammunition, and occurred due to work underway" - according to a Syrian official.

The AFP detailed, "Images circulating online showed widespread destruction, fire and damage to farmland, while videos showed shrapnel reaching shops and residential buildings."

The report reviewed further that "In August, four people were killed in an explosion at a weapons depot on the outskirts of Idlib, authorities said."

And the New Arab explains that the post-war situation has resulted in dangerous storage situations when it comes to arms and bombs:

Arms and ammunition depot explosions are common in Syria, which has been the scene of brutal conflict for 14 years and where weapons are often not properly secured, while bombs have also detonated as they are stripped down for scrap metal.

During the Obama years and first Trump administration, some US officials admitted that Idlib became the biggest al-Qaeda and terror safe-haven in the world. This is even after a US covert program helped jihadists take Idlib from Assad government forces in 2015.

Massive explosion leaves populated area completely scorched in Syria's Idlib countryside

Injuries reported after huge blast in ammo depot — SOHR pic.twitter.com/fJcT8nFwGk

— RT (@RT_com) November 26, 2025

Currently, Syrians in the region are returning to their homes only to find them occupied by foreign fighters, as even mainstream media has belatedly begun to acknowledge.

NPR this week has documented that Christians have often had their homes confiscated by Sunni jihadists, who are often foreigners. As Syrians attempt to return to their homes in the north after years of war, the following is a common scene:

He found foreign fighters living in the house. Someone had also ripped out most of his fruit trees – he never figured out who — and the harvests from his large olive groves, at the foot of the village, had been taken over by foreign fighters as well.

There were women living in his home, too. He couldn't tell who they were because he wasn't allowed to speak to them. He says they wore full black niqabs, leaving only their eyes uncovered. "The male fighters largely did not speak Arabic, so I could not communicate with them," he says.

A huge explosion rocked the Idlib countryside at what seems to be the site of an arms depot pic.twitter.com/9at5L7DMi4

— حـ ރ (@hassanspeaksss) November 26, 2025

Absurdly, the mainstream media is only now - after Assad was overthrown nearly a year ago - coming to admit and document the huge role that international jihadist terrorists played in accomplishing regime change in Damascus.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 13:20