Individual Economists

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My early Monday morning reads:

2% of What? Redefining inflation is not the way to achieve price stability. Warsh confirmed that 2% is the target level, but he did not, and has not, confirmed that PCE prices are the yardstick. Aside from reading out results from the FOMC projections that he chose not to participate in, Warsh has not referred to PCE prices once during his confirmation hearing, first press conference, a central banker panel in Sintra, or two days of congressional testimony. PCE inflation is the yardstick at the Fed. That’s a glaring omission for a Fed Chair, and for a person who likes catchphrases, it’s unlikely to be an oversight.  (Stay-At-Home Macro)

• SpaceX Slump Set to Wipe Out $1 Trillion in Value as Shares Slide: SpaceX shares tumbled on Friday, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value from the rocket and artificial intelligence giant’s all-time high. The stock fell 5.4% to $123.99 per share, giving the company a market value of $1.63 trillion. The value stood at $2.64 trillion at the close on June 16, its third day of trading.(Bloomberg).see also SpaceX Bonds Are Trading Like Junk Bonds. What Does That Mean for Investors? (The Globe and Mail)

• Nondiversifiable Risks in Investment Portfolios: The risks you can’t diversify away — geopolitical, systemic, regulatory — and why pretending they don’t exist is the most common failure in portfolio construction. (CFA Institute)

Can Netflix Become (More Like) YouTube? Faster Than… YouTube is poised to unify the streaming championship belts… (Spyglass)

• How Trump’s Policies Cost US Travel Industry $40 Billion:  Tariffs, toughened borders, and visa policies have pushed the US into a tourism trough. (Bloomberg)

The Americans Striking It Rich in the Data-Center Buildout: One family sold its struggling farmland for $22 million, joining a new class of multimillionaires who are cashing in on the AI data-center boom.  “Their 89-acre farm in this rural town of 4,000 might be worth more than $20 million. To Marilee and David Kiliti, that ridiculously high price sounded like a bunch of deer bologna.” 96 families in Salem Township, Pa., sold about 1,700 acres to data-center developer QTS for $586 million. (Wall Street Journal)

• Disaster Rehearsal: Faking death at O’Hare’s triennial airplane crash simulation. Morley Musick’s essay in n+1 on the strange ritual of preparing for catastrophes — the drills, the kits, the mental models — and what it reveals about how we process anxiety in an era of compounding crises. (n+1)

• Punctuation: A Generational Divide: Judith Shulevitz on commas, periods, and what texting has done to them. Can parents ever learn to text like their kids? Should they even try? (The Atlantic)

• Could That Museum Visit Help You Live Longer?: The data on arts engagement and longevity is surprisingly robust. Regular museum visits correlate with longer life — even after controlling for income, education, and health. A psychiatrist says engaging with the arts not only helps biologically. It can also make you feel more alive. (Wall Street Journal)

This World Cup sealed it: Messi is the best male athlete of all time: Messi is the best player at the World Cup, and the best male athlete of all time. Ryan O’Hanlon makes the data-driven case (ESPN)

Video of the day: Why AI Can’t Take Your Job

Be sure to check out the latest Masters in Business with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

 


Source: BIS

 

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Europe's Heatwave Is Becoming An Energy Crisis

Zero Hedge -

Europe's Heatwave Is Becoming An Energy Crisis

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • Europe's heatwave is disrupting energy and transport, with low river levels restricting barge traffic on the Rhine and driving up shipping costs for fuel, coal, and other goods.

  • High river temperatures have forced France to cut nuclear power generation, reducing electricity output as reactors face cooling constraints.

  • The extreme weather is adding to Europe's energy challenges, increasing inflationary pressures and threatening economic growth alongside ongoing disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The intense early summer heatwave in Europe is warming the biggest rivers and drying up their water levels, disrupting energy deliveries, power generation, and key supply chain routes.

The heatwaves in Europe started as early as June, with record-breaking temperatures for weeks on end in Europe’s biggest economies, Germany and France.

As a result, rainfall was severely limited, and key inland transportation river routes were affected by navigation restrictions, with curbs on the freight volumes a barge can ship. This, in turn, has raised shipping costs and added additional strains to the economies at a time when the protracted Strait of Hormuz crisis is already hiking Europe’s energy costs and inflation.

On top of economic and inflationary effects in Germany, the heatwave actually curbed electricity supply in France.

Early this week, France’s nuclear power generation was slashed by 6.4 gigawatts (GW), or about 14% of the country’s total power demand for the day, amid the heatwave that hiked river temperatures and limited the ability of the nuclear power plants to use the water to cool reactors.

This is not the first time France has had to curb output at reactors and limit nuclear power production due to high summer temperatures. 

France still exported electricity to its neighbors despite reduced nuclear power output, but these events appear to be becoming more frequent as heatwaves last longer with more extreme temperatures.

The same goes for disruption to shipping on the 800-mile-long Rhine River, the biggest inland shipping corridor in Europe, which is critically important for Germany’s and central Europe’s supply of coal, diesel, and goods.

The Rhine handles an enormous amount of supplies for Europe, including fuel and coal, adding to supply chain issues that the Hormuz crisis has created for sea routes.

The Rhine River, which runs northwest from Switzerland through Germany, France, and the Netherlands into the North Sea, is a major petroleum product transportation corridor in Europe. Due to the heatwaves and drought, the levels on the river are low and have now become too shallow for many barges shipping petroleum products to pass. Barges are not being fully loaded to keep them lighter on the water, which lifts shipping costs and delays shipments of coal, fuels, and other goods.

The Kaub gauge, on the Middle Rhine between Koblenz and Mainz, sits at the shallowest chokepoint on the river. It sets the maximum draft and, therefore, the laden weight for every barge moving between the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp ARA seaports and the industrial hinterland of the Rhine valley, shared by Germany, France, and Switzerland.

The previous major crisis with low Rhine water levels was in 2022, and in 2018 before that.

The 2022 critically low Rhine levels occurred when the first energy crisis hit Europe and its economy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This summer, the low Rhine level due to scarce rainfall and intense heatwaves coincides with the Middle East crisis to mount additional pressure on industry, energy supply and prices, transportation costs, and ultimately, inflation.

Water level at the Kaub chokepoint is now at its lowest level in decades for mid-July, which has hiked the freight cost to ship diesel from Rotterdam to southern Germany by more than 50% in the past week.

The early heatwaves and low river levels could pressure Germany’s industry and economy, which has just managed to shake off the initial shock from the Middle East crisis.

Back in 2018, the low Rhine levels in November 2018 led to a 1.5% decline in Germany’s industrial production, which in turn lowered Germany’s GDP by 0.4%, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

This year, the end-June heatwave cost the German economy more than $6.8 billion, or 6 billion euros, an exclusive analysis by economic research firm Prognos for German business daily Handelsblatt showed this week.

In the future, Germany could see three or four intense heatwaves each summer with temperatures exceeding 35 C, or 95 F. Prognos has estimated that Germany could lose 1 billion euros, or $1.14 billion, on each day in which temperatures exceed 35 C. Thus, the annual damage to the German economy could top 20 billion euros, or $23 billion.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 03:30

China Is Building A System To Track Asteroids That Could Potentially Smash Into Earth

Zero Hedge -

China Is Building A System To Track Asteroids That Could Potentially Smash Into Earth

China is expanding its planetary defense efforts with a new asteroid detection network aimed at spotting dangerous space rocks long before they become a threat to Earth, according to the South China Morning Post.

SCMP writes that the planned system will pair a network of powerful ground-based telescopes with satellites in orbit, giving scientists the ability to monitor the sky around the clock. Space-based sensors can also detect asteroids approaching from the sun's direction—objects that are especially difficult for Earth-based observatories to see.

Li Mingtao, the chief scientist overseeing the project, said there are currently no known asteroids expected to strike Earth. Even so, he cautioned that many medium-sized objects capable of causing widespread regional destruction have yet to be discovered.

According to Li, astronomers have already identified more than 95% of near-Earth asteroids larger than one kilometer in diameter, which are large enough to trigger global consequences. But the search is far less complete for smaller bodies. Scientists estimate they've located only about 45% of asteroids roughly 140 meters across—large enough to wipe out a city or devastate an entire region.

Li said these missing asteroids represent the biggest concern because they are difficult to detect until they are relatively close, and some can approach from blind spots created by the sun's glare.

If the system identifies a potentially hazardous object, it will analyze the asteroid's orbit, estimate the odds of an impact, and notify authorities if the risk reaches a dangerous level.

China has also stepped up research into planetary defense in recent years, hiring specialists and refining software used to predict collision risks. Officials believe the most effective defense remains a kinetic impact mission—crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to slightly alter its course before it reaches Earth. Other proposed methods, such as lasers, particle beams, or using a spacecraft's gravity to tug an asteroid off course, remain largely theoretical and would generally require much longer to work.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 02:45

How Long Will Burnham Last?

Zero Hedge -

How Long Will Burnham Last?

Authored by Mark Littlewood via DailySceptic.org,

Over the past decade our political system has chewed through and spat out Prime Ministers at a faster rate than Premier League football teams burn through managers. As Andy Burnham enters 10 Downing Street, why would we think there is any reason he will do much better – in terms of longevity – than his immediate predecessors? I’m keeping my eyes peeled for a bookmaker offering odds on Burnham being removed from office before the next election rather than at it.

As the Labour Party slowly coalesced around a consensus that Starmer simply had to go there was an oft repeated refrain of, ‘We have to get this right first time if we are going to do it, we only have one chance.’

The theory here seems to be that ditching a leader – however unpopular – and finding a fresh one is not the sort of thing that the electorate approve of. They have passed their judgement at the ballot box and are usually unimpressed when the powers-that-be decide to second guess that decision.

More generally, ditching an incumbent leader against their will gives the impression of chaos and instability. It gives such an impression precisely because chaos and instability are typically what have brought about the decision to make a change.

The circumstances around removing a Prime Minister are always different but can be broadly batched into three categories – they are based on aesthetics, ideology or health. The last two are easier to explain to the public than the first. Margaret Thatcher was removed for ideological reasons – she was unwilling to retreat on the hugely unpopular poll tax and was also pursuing a European policy that a large chunk of her party disapproved of. On the basis of needing to wholly reset our approach to the EU, David Cameron jumped and Theresa May was pushed.

These sorts of switches of leader seem to have a fair chance of working. Indeed, each of Thatcher’s, Cameron’s and May’s successors went on to retain office at a General Election.

But changing Prime Minister just on the basis that the outgoing leader wasn’t very good and without a clear and explicit shift in an area of policy seems fraught with electoral danger. Callaghan and Brown went on to lose elections having entered office mid-term. Both had different approaches to their predecessor but there wasn’t a single, specific and explicable change in policy.

Similarly, the switch from Johnson to Truss and then swiftly onto Sunak didn’t appear to improve the standing of the Conservatives amongst the electorate. In fact, it probably worsened it.

Burnham finds himself in the same vague, messy scenario. He didn’t launch a coup against Starmer because he fundamentally disagrees with him on, say, the war in Iran or Net Zero or membership of the ECHR. Instead, it’s simply based on Labour’s abysmal poll ratings, Starmer’s catastrophic approval ratings and the hope that a fresh approach to ‘comms’ can somehow revive the party’s fortunes.

It’s early days (indeed, we are not yet even in the early days of a new administration as I write these words), but the evidence of recent polls suggests little or no Burnham bounce for Labour.

The governing party remains stubbornly stuck on only around 20% in the polls. If there was a wave of national enthusiasm – or even a noticeable trickle – about Burnham entering Downing Street, one would have expected some sort of uplift in the polls in anticipation of it happening. So far, nothing.

Burnham’s supporters will insist – or at least hope – that once we see their man in action as our actual PM the electorate will warm to him. He is certainly a more charismatic politician and a better communicator than Starmer, but I’m sceptical that this will meaningfully move the dial of public opinion.

If our new Prime Minister has a markedly different economic strategy to that of the last two years, I’ve yet to hear it (or at least I’m yet to understand what the various vague analyses and prescriptions put forward actually amount to).

He lamented a “series of wrong turns in the 1980s” – his teenage years – which, he believes, sent the country on the path to ruin.

“Political power was centralised and economic power was privatised,” he said in his coronation speech as Labour leader on Friday.

“The country surrendered control of the essentials, housing, water, energy, transport and left people exposed to higher costs.”

He lumps the Thatcher years and everything that followed, Tory or Labour, as “four decades of the neoliberalism that began in the 1980s [which] have not been kind to the places that built our party”.

His solution is “control” – more state ownership, more diktats from politicians.

All of this suggests to me that we are likely to continue on the pathway of taxes being dialled up, growth being low, debt increasing and public spending ballooning (particularly welfare spending). I suspect if there is any Burnham honeymoon at all, it will be very brief.

If this is so, what happens if in a year or so the Labour Parliamentary party is still staring down the barrel of electoral oblivion? Having decided to twist rather than stick when it came to Starmer, might the same apply to Burnham? In such a scenario, it will likely be too late to change policy direction in any dramatic fashion – the party will be locked in as a government that seeks to tax and spend to the maximum. However, desperate folk in politics are prone to throw the dice. Having set the precedent of throwing the captain overboard because the polling numbers look bleak it can easily become habit-forming. Historically, the Conservatives have had a much greater propensity for regicide than Labour, but there’s no persuasive reason why the latter couldn’t adopt the same psychopathy.

This is why I’m looking forward to a book opening on Andy Burnham’s departure date, even if it seems a bit mean-spirited to do so right at the start of his reign.

If I can find 3/1 or longer that he will be out by the end of 2028, I will certainly be snapping up those odds.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 02:00

'Convergence': Secret Labs Already Deployed Lifelike Female Androids While Public Watches Optimus Toy Demos

Zero Hedge -

'Convergence': Secret Labs Already Deployed Lifelike Female Androids While Public Watches Optimus Toy Demos

Authored by Madge Waggy,

Technology has an unusual habit of revealing itself twice.

The first version appears quietly, almost unnoticed, inside research papers, patent filings, laboratory demonstrations and corporate presentations that attract little attention beyond specialists.

The second version arrives years later, polished into a consumer product that suddenly convinces everyone the breakthrough happened overnight. History repeatedly favors this illusion. By the time society begins discussing a technological revolution, thousands of engineers have already spent years solving problems the public never realized existed.

That gap between discovery and public awareness has become one of the defining characteristics of the twenty-first century, and nowhere is it more apparent than in the race to build machines that no longer resemble machines at all.

During the last three years alone, humanoid robotics has advanced at a pace few analysts considered realistic even a decade ago. Tesla continues developing Optimus as a general-purpose humanoid assistant, Figure AI has demonstrated robots capable of performing increasingly complex industrial tasks while collaborating with advanced language models, Boston Dynamics has introduced an entirely electric generation of Atlas after retiring one of the most recognizable research robots ever built, and companies such as Sanctuary AI, Agility Robotics and Apptronik are openly competing to place human-shaped machines inside factories, warehouses and commercial environments. Simultaneously, breakthroughs in computer vision, reinforcement learning, synthetic materials and multimodal artificial intelligence have dramatically reduced the distance between experimental prototypes and practical deployment. None of these developments belong to science fiction anymore. They are unfolding in plain sight, documented through academic publications, investor briefings and live demonstrations watched by millions around the world.

Yet an uncomfortable pattern has begun emerging alongside this extraordinary progress. Every major technological leap seems to generate a parallel conversation taking place far from universities and conference halls, unfolding instead across anonymous forums, encrypted chat groups and obscure corners of the internet where speculation often grows faster than evidence. Some theories disappear within hours because they collapse under the weight of obvious contradictions. Others survive for years despite the complete absence of proof, not because they successfully explain reality but because they ask questions that remain surprisingly difficult to dismiss. One recurring idea has become particularly persistent: if companies publicly demonstrate machines capable of walking, reasoning and manipulating objects with human-like dexterity today, what might exist inside research facilities whose work will not become public until five or even ten years from now?

No credible evidence has ever answered that question.

The absence of evidence, however, has never prevented the internet from trying.

Among the countless stories that circulate through speculative technology communities, one in particular continues resurfacing despite never being independently verified. It describes an invitation-only exhibition allegedly organized inside an anonymous research complex where visitors were shown humanoid entities unlike anything previously demonstrated in public. According to archived discussions that periodically reappear online, the event itself was almost deliberately ordinary. There were no theatrical presentations, no dramatic product launches and no executives standing beneath oversized screens announcing the future of artificial intelligence. The building resembled a research facility more than a convention center, its corridors illuminated with clinical precision and stripped of nearly every identifying feature that could reveal who financed or operated the installation. Whatever attracted attention that day was not the architecture. It was what stood behind the glass.

The descriptions vary in countless small details while remaining strangely consistent about the central image. Long rows of transparent containment chambers reportedly filled an immense exhibition hall, each enclosing a female humanoid whose appearance challenged the very definition of robotics. Visitors allegedly expected exposed actuators, composite frames or polished metallic joints similar to those displayed by contemporary engineering prototypes. Instead, they found figures possessing skin that reflected light with subtle biological imperfections, naturally distributed hair, nearly imperceptible facial asymmetry and eyes that appeared disturbingly capable of maintaining silent attention. Some accounts insisted they were sophisticated androids. Others argued they were advanced synthetic organisms. A few dismissed the entire story as an elaborate digital art project designed to exploit growing public fascination with artificial intelligence. None of these interpretations has ever been supported by verifiable evidence, yet none has managed to erase the story either.

Perhaps that persistence says less about the photographs than it does about the era in which they allegedly appeared.

Only a few years ago, generating a convincing human face required painstaking digital artistry. Today, artificial intelligence routinely produces images, voices and video sequences capable of deceiving experienced observers under ordinary viewing conditions. Simultaneously, roboticists are steadily solving challenges once considered decades away from practical implementation. Artificial muscle systems continue improving. Synthetic skin capable of sensing pressure and temperature is advancing through laboratories across Europe, Asia and North America. Neural networks increasingly interpret visual information with remarkable precision, while large language models have transformed natural conversation into something machines perform with astonishing fluency. Each breakthrough, taken individually, appears understandable. Together they create an unsettling possibility that public imagination often races ahead to explore long before reality catches up.

The modern conspiracy landscape thrives inside precisely that narrow space between demonstrated capability and undocumented possibility. It rarely invents technology from nothing. Instead, it observes genuine scientific progress, extends every trend several years into the future and asks whether society is already witnessing carefully selected fragments of a much larger picture. Throughout history, classified aviation projects, cryptographic systems and surveillance technologies have all existed years before their official acknowledgment. That historical precedent fuels endless speculation whenever another rapidly advancing field begins transforming the world. Humanoid robotics, perhaps more than any emerging technology today, naturally invites the same questions—not because hidden laboratories have been proven to exist, but because technological acceleration has repeatedly surprised even the experts attempting to measure it.

THE EXHIBIT THAT ARRIVED BEFORE THE FUTURE

Technology rarely introduces itself with a dramatic announcement. More often, it arrives disguised as another research paper, another patent application, another demonstration watched by a few thousand engineers before disappearing beneath the next day's headlines. Looking backward, every technological revolution appears inevitable. Looking forward, it almost always resembles coincidence. That contradiction has become increasingly difficult to ignore over the past several years as artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics have advanced at a pace that even optimistic forecasts struggled to anticipate. What seemed extraordinary in 2020 became commercially viable by 2024, and by 2025 discussions that once belonged exclusively to science fiction had quietly entered boardrooms, government agencies, and manufacturing plants around the world.

Unlike previous waves of automation, today's race is no longer centered around machines built exclusively for factories. The objective has shifted toward creating systems capable of operating naturally inside environments originally designed for people. That distinction changes everything. Companies such as Tesla continue refining Optimus, Figure AI has demonstrated humanoid robots performing industrial tasks alongside advanced language models, Boston Dynamics has transitioned to an entirely electric version of Atlas, while Sanctuary AI, Apptronik, and Agility Robotics are openly competing to deploy human-shaped machines into warehouses, logistics centers, hospitals, and commercial environments. None of these developments are hidden behind classified documents. They are documented through public demonstrations, engineering conferences, investor presentations, and peer-reviewed research. The world is not waiting for humanoid robots to arrive. They have already arrived; the only remaining question concerns how quickly they become ordinary.

 

What makes this timeline remarkable is not any single breakthrough, but the compression between them. Technologies that previously evolved over decades are now progressing within months. Computing power continues expanding, neural networks become more efficient with every iteration, synthetic materials increasingly mimic biological tissue, and robotic dexterity improves through reinforcement learning systems trained inside simulated environments before ever touching the physical world. Several research groups are now experimenting with electronic skin capable of detecting pressure, temperature and texture, while others are developing artificial muscle fibers designed to reproduce the flexibility of biological movement. Independently, each achievement appears incremental. Viewed together, they begin resembling pieces of a much larger puzzle whose final image remains frustratingly incomplete.

Throughout history, transformative technologies have almost always existed in limited forms before becoming public knowledge. Stealth aircraft remained classified long before their official acknowledgment. Modern cryptographic systems evolved inside government programs years before entering consumer electronics. Satellite reconnaissance, advanced computing and even the internet itself all followed similar trajectories, transitioning gradually from restricted environments into everyday life. None of this proves that humanoid robotics follows the same path, yet it explains why discussions surrounding undisclosed research facilities continue appearing wherever technological acceleration outpaces public understanding.

Among the countless stories circulating across futurist forums, one recurring narrative refuses to disappear despite the complete absence of verifiable evidence. According to these accounts, anonymous images allegedly depicting a private exhibition began surfacing shortly after several major robotics announcements captured international attention. The photographs themselves were unremarkable at first glance. There were no dramatic explosions of light, no cinematic laboratories filled with exposed machinery and certainly no science-fiction aesthetic designed to impress an audience. Instead, they portrayed an environment whose greatest source of discomfort came from its overwhelming normality. Clean architectural lines, carefully controlled lighting, visitors quietly observing transparent containment chambers, and inside those chambers, female humanoids whose appearance blurred the distinction between biological life and engineered design so effectively that many viewers struggled to identify where one ended and the other supposedly began.

What fascinated online communities was not the imagery itself but the possibility it represented. If the photographs were fabricated, they reflected an extraordinary understanding of contemporary robotics and human anatomy. If they depicted an elaborate artistic installation, the creators had achieved precisely the emotional response they intended. Yet if—purely as a matter of speculation—they represented a glimpse into technology more advanced than anything publicly demonstrated, they suggested something profoundly unsettling about the pace at which artificial intelligence and embodied robotics might already be evolving beyond public awareness.

WHEN MACHINES STOP LOOKING LIKE MACHINES

Perhaps the most significant shift occurring today has little to do with processing power or mechanical engineering. It concerns perception. Early industrial robots never attempted to resemble humans because efficiency mattered more than familiarity. Modern humanoid research pursues the opposite objective. Engineers increasingly recognize that machines designed to work alongside people benefit from recognizable gestures, natural movement and intuitive communication. Artificial intelligence no longer exists solely inside software; it is gradually acquiring a physical presence capable of navigating environments originally built for biological life. That transition introduces questions extending far beyond engineering specifications. It touches psychology, ethics, economics and identity itself.

Researchers studying the uncanny valley have documented for decades that human beings respond differently to machines once they become almost—but not entirely—indistinguishable from living people. Small imperfections that might otherwise pass unnoticed suddenly become psychologically significant. A smile held a fraction too long. Eyes that maintain uninterrupted focus without natural micro-adjustments. Facial muscles moving with perfect synchronization rather than subtle asymmetry. These details rarely appear frightening in isolation, yet together they produce an instinctive discomfort difficult to explain rationally. As synthetic materials improve and artificial intelligence becomes increasingly sophisticated, the boundary responsible for that sensation continues narrowing.

Whether humanity ultimately embraces lifelike humanoids or resists them remains impossible to predict. What can be stated with confidence is that the underlying technology continues advancing regardless of public opinion. Investment in embodied AI has accelerated dramatically, governments have begun drafting regulatory frameworks for autonomous systems, and major technology companies increasingly describe robotics as one of the next defining industries of the coming decade. Against that backdrop, it becomes easier to understand why fictional stories about hidden laboratories, invitation-only exhibitions and technologies existing several years ahead of public demonstrations continue capturing the imagination of millions. 

BEYOND THE GLASS

Whether the exhibition ever existed eventually became the least interesting question.

The discussions that followed took on a life of their own, gradually shifting away from anonymous photographs and toward something far more unsettling. Engineers began debating theoretical manufacturing limits. Neuroscientists questioned whether synthetic cognition would eventually require emotions rather than simply simulating them. Military analysts speculated about autonomous decision-making systems, while ethicists found themselves asking an entirely different question: if a machine could imitate every observable characteristic of human behavior, what objective measurement would still separate the creator from the creation?

Within the universe surrounding the alleged exhibition, researchers supposedly referred to the project using an unusual expression that later appeared across several archived discussion boards: "Convergence." The name carried no technical explanation, only a philosophical one. According to the mythology that slowly developed online, the objective had never been to construct machines capable of replacing human labor. That milestone had already become commercially achievable through ordinary automation. The real ambition was allegedly something considerably more difficult—to construct artificial beings capable of existing inside society without ever being recognized as artificial in the first place.

The concept itself had already escaped.

The documents discussed by online communities described laboratories unlike conventional research facilities. Engineers supposedly worked alongside psychologists, behavioral scientists, linguists, neurologists and artists, each responsible for solving a different aspect of the same impossible equation. Mechanical movement alone could never convince an observer they were looking at genuine life. Human beings unconsciously detect thousands of microscopic behavioral patterns every hour without realizing it. Eye contact lasts for predictable intervals. Facial muscles contract unevenly. Breathing changes with emotion. Tiny pauses interrupt ordinary conversation. Even silence possesses rhythm. 

An anonymous character allegedly summarized the problem in a single sentence that became strangely popular among the hidden communities based on these controversial topics:

"People don't recognize humanity because of perfection. They recognize it because perfection never survives long enough to become human."

THE FINAL PROTOTYPE WAS NEVER A MACHINE

As years passed, technological progress accelerated alongside real industry developments. Every genuine breakthrough in artificial intelligence strengthened public conviction regarding the rapid pace of innovation. Public demonstrations showed humanoid robots becoming smoother, quieter, and more capable each year. Language models learned to hold increasingly natural conversations. Synthetic voices lost their unmistakable mechanical cadence. Artificial vision systems improved beyond what many experts believed possible only a few years earlier. Observers interpreted every public announcement as confirmation that society was witnessing technologies whose foundational frameworks had already been quietly developed over the preceding years.

That progression reflected a psychological phenomenon repeatedly observed throughout technological history. Human imagination rarely invents futures from nothing. Instead, it extends visible trends until they become predictable realities. Steam engines became locomotives before becoming intercontinental railways. Primitive computers became smartphones through thousands of incremental improvements rather than one miraculous discovery. In much the same way, the Convergence Program mapped a future assembled not through impossible inventions, but through the gradual integration of disciplines already advancing today.

According to unpublished data, the exhibition itself was never intended to impress investors or government officials. It served another purpose entirely. Visitors unknowingly became participants in a behavioral experiment. Cameras hidden throughout the exhibition allegedly measured eye movement, hesitation, emotional response, interpersonal distance and unconscious reactions as guests walked past each observation chamber.

Every moment of curiosity became data. Every expression of uncertainty refined the next generation of synthetic behavior.

The humanoids behind the glass were not being evaluated.

The observers were.

That single twist transformed the entire legend from an ordinary tale into something psychologically far more disturbing. It suggested that humanity had misunderstood the experiment from the beginning. 

This ongoing focus on rapid technological evolution reflects a broader recognition that modern civilization is crossing a significant historical threshold with profound long-term implications. Artificial intelligence is actively transforming key sectors, including education, medicine, finance, manufacturing, and scientific research. Concurrently, humanoid robotics continues to advance at an accelerated pace, while brain-computer interfaces are successfully progressing through human clinical trials. Furthermore, synthetic materials are increasingly replicating the functional properties of biological tissue. While each of these advancements represents an isolated milestone, their combined integration shapes a highly complex and rapidly changing socio-technological landscape.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 23:20

'Going Dark': The High-Tech Tricks Behind Illegal Chinese Fishing In The Pacific

Zero Hedge -

'Going Dark': The High-Tech Tricks Behind Illegal Chinese Fishing In The Pacific

Authored by AAP via The Epoch Times,

The interception of a Chinese vessel accused of illegal fishing highlights the technical lengths many use to remain undetected across millions of square kilometres of open ocean.

Tuvalu Police operating on a Sea Shepherd patrol boat boarded and arrested a Chinese longliner, the Lu Rong Yuan Yu 138, on July 9 for allegedly illegally operating within the small South Pacific nation's waters.

In a supplied image, fish found on board Chinese longlining vessel, the Lu Rong Yuan Yu 138, at the time it was detained for alleged illegal fishing in NA, Tuvalu on July 9, 2026 PR Image/Supplied by Sea Shepard

The vessel was allegedly running with its navigation light turned off and transmitting false data showing it to be in different area - an increasingly common practice known as "spoofing."

After boarding the ship, officers found it did not hold a valid permit to fish the area, detaining the vessel and escorting it to the Port of Funafuti for further investigation.

Sea Shepherd Australia Chair Peter Hammarstedt said illegal fishers were increasingly "going dark" by switching off their automatic identification systems, or using them to broadcast false information.

"It's very common practice, especially in the Pacific Ocean, for Chinese fishing vessels to transmit false positions," Hammarstedt told AAP.

"If you go onto some vessel tracking software websites, you'll see some Chinese fishing vessels appear on land, like in the Mongolian desert, for example.

"Obviously the fishing vessel isn't there, but is operating elsewhere and simply inputting false data to mislead investigators."

In the case of the Lu Rong Yuan Yu 138, it was allegedly transmitting a location that put it squarely on the equator at 0 degrees, raising the suspicions of investigators.

Sea Shepherd has partnered with Tuvalu Police for the past two years, since the nation's only operational patrol boat was damaged in a cyclone.

The small island nation monitors a marine domain covering roughly 750,000 square kilometres, with limited assets to keep an eye on such a large area, meaning most illegal fishing operations go undetected.

"The fishing vessels that do this kind of behaviour operate under the expectation that they're just not going to get caught," Mr Hammarstedt said.

Australia and Pacific nations have recently ramped up efforts to clamp down on illegal fishing under the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency Fishing Authorisation.

"The Tuvaluans live by the sea, with the sea, and have done so for hundreds and hundreds of years," Hammarstedt said.

"When I see illegal fishing on an industrial scale happening in the Tuvaluan waters, I see this as theft from the Tuvaluans."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 22:10

India's Nuclear Push Further Strains The Massive Uranium Supply Gap

Zero Hedge -

India's Nuclear Push Further Strains The Massive Uranium Supply Gap

Prime Minister Modi secured another major uranium supply line. During his visit to Australia this month, the two sides finalized the administrative arrangements needed to move Australian uranium to India under the previous 2014 nuclear cooperation agreement. The fuel must stay under IAEA safeguards for exclusively peaceful use

Australia holds roughly 28% of global uranium reserves. New Delhi has eyed those reserves for years, and now the yellowcake spigot can open.

This follows the March deal with Canada's Cameco. That contract covers nearly 22 million pounds of U3O8 from 2027 through 2035 at market-related pricing, worth around C$2.6 billion. 

India already buys from Russia and Uzbekistan, and holds some domestic production. The message is consistent: a country targeting 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047 cannot rely on thin indigenous resources alone. 

Current operable capacity sits near 8 GW. The gap requires sustained annual additions measured in gigawatts, not megawatts.

Cumulative net deficits keep expanding as reactor builds in China and Russia outpace primary supply response. Goldman models have only recently started taking into account the significant expansion in the SMR space as well, resulting in some relatively alarming supply gaps in the years ahead.

The Cameco agreement already reflected this reality. CEO Tim Gitzel noted that sovereign buyers are locking up volumes in a window where available supply grows more uncertain. Kazakhstan has also moved to build its own strategic reserve.

Couple these data points with Goldman's estimate of the ongoing lack of long-term uranium supply contracting by the existing global fleet…

We've been pointing to the uranium upside trade for several years now. We laid out a longer form of our thesis for the anticipated continued rise of the price of uranium just a few months ago. The idea is incredibly straightforward. There's not enough mines, and the demand is exploding faster than people can keep track of.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 21:35

478 Individuals Charged In Border-Related Enforcements In Texas, Arizona

Zero Hedge -

478 Individuals Charged In Border-Related Enforcements In Texas, Arizona

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

A total of 478 individuals have been charged across Texas and Arizona over the past week in cases involving border and immigration-related crimes.

A United States Border Patrol agent enters through the United States border wall outside of San Diego, on Jan. 20, 2026. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

In Texas, 199 people, including 175 illegal immigrants, were charged in 194 cases between July 10 and 16, according to a July 17 statement from the Department of Justice (DOJ). Authorities filed 146 criminal complaints in the Southern District of Texas for felony reentry after prior removal. Illegal entry charges were filed against 17 individuals.

According to the DOJ, most of the arrested illegal immigrants have prior felonies, such as violent crimes, immigration crimes, and narcotics. Twenty-eight people were charged with human smuggling, including 12 illegal immigrants. Charges related to firearms have also been leveled against some of the apprehended people. One of the arrested individuals has a prior conviction for online solicitation of a minor.

In Arizona, 279 individuals were charged during the July 11-17 week following immigration enforcement operations, according to another DOJ statement on July 17.

Authorities filed 56 cases in the District of Arizona in which illegal immigrants were accused of reentering the United States unlawfully. Officials charged 206 illegal immigrants with illegally entering the country. Cases were filed against 17 individuals for allegedly smuggling foreign nationals into Arizona.

The 478 arrested individuals were apprehended under Operation Take Back America, established by the then-deputy attorney general Todd Blanche through a March 2025 memorandum.

The operation seeks to repel the entry of illegal immigrants into the United States, achieve the total elimination of cartels and transnational criminal organizations, and set up Homeland Security task forces to dismantle cross-border human smuggling and trafficking networks.

In California, 111 border-related cases were filed this week, the DOJ said in a July 17 statement. Charges filed at the Southern District of California include reentering the United States after deportation, importing controlled substances, and bringing in illegal immigrants for financial gain.

Among the arrested are a Mexican national with three prior felony immigration convictions, and a U.S. citizen who tried to traffic 131 pounds of cocaine when applying for entering the United States.

ICE Enforcement

The Trump administration is facing opposition from certain jurisdictions over immigration-related arrests.

In April, the Philadelphia City Council voted unanimously to pass the ICE OUT legislation package, which placed restrictions on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities in the city, according to a council statement on April 15.

The legislation bans the city from collaborating or sharing data with ICE, restricts ICE activity in city-owned spaces, and makes it illegal for ICE and other law enforcement agents to hide their identities with face masks and unmarked vehicles.

The committee's vote on the ICE OUT package "affirms that we will stand with our immigrant communities and refuse to turn our backs on those who call this city home," Councilmember Rue Landau said in a statement at the time.

A federal judge temporarily blocked the ban on face masks and unmarked vehicles on July 2 after the federal government requested a preliminary injunction. The prohibition was set to come into effect on July 7.

Judge Chad Kenney of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, who issued the ruling, said the city's law "attempted to sidestep the Constitution's clear mandate."

Meanwhile, ICE said in a July 1 statement that the Secure America Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump in June, provides the agency with $350 million in additional funding that would enable the arrests of more criminal illegal immigrants hiding in sanctuary jurisdictions.

Acting ICE director David J. Venturella said in the statement that sanctuary jurisdictions refuse to honor ICE detainers or coordinate to safely transfer illegal immigrants from local custody to federal authorities.

"As a result, criminal illegal aliens who could have been transferred directly to ICE are instead released into our communities, forcing our officers to locate and arrest them in neighborhoods, businesses, and other public locations," Venturella said.

"The funding from this legislation will help ICE increase its capacity to monitor releases and arrest removable criminal aliens when sanctuary jurisdictions refuse to cooperate with federal immigration authorities."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 21:00

The Data-Center Revolt Goes National: Tea Party Veteran Leads 142 Rallies Across 42 States

Zero Hedge -

The Data-Center Revolt Goes National: Tea Party Veteran Leads 142 Rallies Across 42 States

The backlash against the AI data-center build-out - which we've been tracking since it was a smattering of county fights across 28 states - staged its first coordinated day of action on Saturday: 142 protests across 42 states, from Wasilla, Alaska to Naples, Florida, organized by Humans First, the nonprofit that Tea Party veteran Amy Kremer co-founded and chairs. The crowds spanned both sides of the aisle...uniting a MAGA stalwart in a 'faith, family, freedom' T-shirt in New Jersey, a first-time activist in Texas, and a left-leaning organizer in California's Imperial Valley.

The fight looked like Kenilworth, New Jersey. Residents of the 8,500-person borough gathered outside the municipal court at mid-morning with drums, plastic horns, and sidewalk chalk to protest the $1.8 billion CoreWeave AI data center their planning board approved in May 2025 on the former Merck campus - a project that has since drawn more than 12,000 petition signatures against it, several thousand more names than the town has people. The woman in the "faith, family, freedom" T-shirt marched beside neighbors holding "Build community, not data centers" signs. When heavy rain arrived later in the day, they pulled on ponchos, shared umbrellas, and kept marching. One sign, caught by Business Insider's photographer on the scene: "You think this is pressure? Wait 'til there's no water pressure."

Texas, the country's hottest data-center market, hosted the most rallies - 18 - with Georgia at 11, California at eight, and Pennsylvania, Florida, and Indiana at seven apiece. In Imperial Valley, where a proposed facility could pull 260 million gallons a year from the Colorado River, Ivan DelSol, 54, told Reuters that around 50 people turned out in 100-degree heat. "It's dystopian that you would use this much fresh water for AI," he said. Organizers released no headcounts; turnout ran below expectations in some rural areas and in Atlanta, where about a dozen showed - most of them, a volunteer there said, driving in from the smaller Georgia towns where the biggest data centers are going up.

Kremer is a founding figure of the Tea Party movement who went on to found Women for Trump, and an organizer of the January 6, 2021 rally that preceded the Capitol riot (she neither planned nor took part in the riot itself). She has spent months calling data centers the defining fight of her lifetime, warning the technology could threaten humanity itself, and she is open about running the old playbook: grassroots pressure, town by town, aimed at both parties.

Her crowds bear that out. One of Saturday's Texas rallies, in Tyler, was organized by Eva Cardona, a 31-year-old self-described political nomad and first-time activist who told Reuters she wanted something more hands-on than posting on Facebook; about a dozen people came. And in Imperial Valley, the man who helped lead the rally leans left. The polling explains why a coalition that broad holds. A June Reuters/Ipsos survey found only 14 percent of Americans would support a data center in their own community. Gallup polling fielded in March found 71 percent oppose building an AI data center in their area - 48 percent strongly - a worse number than a local nuclear plant gets. And Morgan Stanley told clients in a July 14 note that support for local data-center bans runs strongest among Republican, higher-income, and urban voters, while Morning Consult's national tracker crossed a line of its own in May: "stop building" (about 45 percent) overtook "keep building while expanding energy supply" (about 38 percent) for the first time since last October.

For all the movement's reputation, Kremer's demands stop well short of a shutdown. She opposes a national moratorium and statewide moratoriums alike, telling Business Insider that each community should choose what gets built inside it, and that too many of those choices are made behind closed doors. Humans First's platform runs to transparent approval processes, environmental review before permits are granted, union construction jobs, and binding developer commitments of the kind lawyers call community benefits agreements. She has aimed as much fire at her own side, accusing Republicans of giving Big Tech a free pass and predicting the industry will cozy up to Democrats the moment the majority flips. The fix, she argues, belongs to Congress.

Amy Kremer is the cofounder of Women for Trump and Women for America First. Now she's taking on AI data centers. Jacquelyn Martin/AP

The organization is a narrower thing than the crowds it convened. Humans First announced in April that its non-conservative team members would spin off into a separate group, with Kremer promising "a topflight team of conservatives" to fight Big AI and its lobbyists. The banner over Saturday's rallies, in other words, was a conservative one - which makes the mix of people who marched beneath it all the more striking.

Official Backlash

The rallies capped a fast-moving week. On Tuesday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order imposing the nation's first statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers - an immediate pause of up to a year on state environmental permits for projects of 50 megawatts or more while regulators draft standards covering energy demand, water use, and air quality. Her office promised localities community-benefit guidance within 60 days, and Hochul will pursue repeal of the state's sales-tax exemptions for massive data centers. A tougher bill passed by the legislature, with a 20-megawatt threshold, remains unsigned on her desk; her office has called it complicated, and Hochul said the state wants to be "the first to get it right."

New York was not alone. Virginia's new tax on data-center electricity - 1.1 cents per kilowatt-hour - took effect July 1. Pennsylvania's House passed a ban on non-disclosure agreements in data-center deals by a 171-31 vote, and separately voted 197-5 to repeal the industry's sales-tax exemption, a break worth roughly $517 million a year by 2030. Arizona's governor signed a three-year moratorium on new data-center tax breaks in June. Legislators have filed more than 300 data-center bills this year; local pauses have passed at the county, city, and tribal level in at least 15 states.

Meanwhile In China

Nothing comparable is happening on the other side of the Pacific. Two days before the marches, Beijing-based Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter system billed as the largest open-weight model ever built and claimed to perform level with America's best frontier models. Bloomberg has reported that Beijing plans to spend roughly $295 billion over five years on a nationwide network of AI computing hubs - and none of it will face a zoning board. Under the state's "Eastern Data, Western Computing" program, the buildout is steered into the arid, sparsely populated west; provincial governments compete to attract data centers with tax holidays, cheap land, and compute vouchers, and the state absorbs up to half of operators' energy costs, so the strain never shows up on a household bill. No Chinese county has passed a moratorium, because no Chinese county gets a vote.

The financial toll is no longer hypothetical. Third-party trackers cited by Morgan Stanley in its July 14 note put the value of cancelled or delayed projects at roughly $156 billion in 2025 and another $130 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone - about $286 billion in all - set against the bank's own estimate of $877 billion in AI capital spending this year. The underlying quarterly count comes from Data Center Watch, a tracker run by 10a Labs, an intelligence firm whose client list includes AI companies, which logged at least 75 projects blocked or delayed from January through March - matching in one quarter the number of projects derailed in all of 2025 - as active opposition groups more than doubled from 396 to 833 and spread to 49 states.

Saturday itself stayed peaceful - chalk, chants, drums, umbrellas - though the wider fight has had harder edges: developers of the Piedmont transmission line into Northern Virginia's data-center corridor asked a federal court last summer for U.S. Marshals to escort survey crews after landowners threatened workers, an episode we covered at the time.

The industry answered forcefully. The Data Center Coalition warned that New York's moratorium tells investors the state is "closed for business" and will push jobs and tax revenue to neighboring states. Seven major AI and cloud companies - Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and xAI - point to the Ratepayer Protection Pledge they signed at the White House in March, a voluntary commitment to cover the grid costs their facilities create. And White House AI czar David Sacks went after Hochul's case point by point on the All-In podcast, calling data centers "the scapegoat for all of the angst that people have about AI." His answer to the utility-bill complaint: let developers build their own generation behind the meter instead of competing with households for grid power.

Some industry allies go further, pointing to OpenAI's June disclosure that it banned a China-linked network using ChatGPT to mass-produce comics and comments blaming data centers for rising power bills. OpenAI itself found the operation gained almost no authentic traction - and the crowds in Kenilworth and Imperial County were unambiguously homegrown.

Kremer spent Saturday evening thanking volunteers and looking past the weekend. "America is not for sale, and our communities are not collateral," she wrote on X. She expects data centers on the ballot in November, and again in 2028. The midterms are less than four months away.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 21:00

China's Moonshot Eyes IPO After Sparking Another "DeepSeek Moment" For US AI Stocks

Zero Hedge -

China's Moonshot Eyes IPO After Sparking Another "DeepSeek Moment" For US AI Stocks

Chinese startup Moonshot AI sparked another DeepSeek-like moment for US AI stocks and hyperscalers last week. David Sacks, the former White House AI and cryptocurrency czar, warned that this is "very concerning."

Moonshot AI debuted Kimi K3, which ranks number three on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Anthropic's Fable 5. This only shows the continued trend of open-weight models toward the AI frontier.

Kimi K3 has emerged as a top challenger across reasoning and coding workloads, highlighting the rapid pace of innovation and the increasing competitive pressure on models in terms of capabilities and downward trend in pricing. This only sparked weakness in sentiment toward AI US stocks and hyperscalers last week due to their massive capex binges to build out data centers.

Related:

It serves as a reminder for companies amid the 'tokenmaxxing' woes that there are lower-cost alternatives for end users besides expensive frontier Anthropic and OpenAI.

Now, Moonshot AI is leveraging last week's momentum and preparing for an initial public offering in Hong Kong within six months. Kimi K3 has strengthened investor confidence, positioning the startup to enter public markets.

Bloomberg reports that Moonshot is in the process of concluding a funding round that values the three-year-old startup at $30 billion.

Annual revenues topped $300 million in June, up from $200 million in April, supported by chatbot subscriptions and enterprise services.

The startup has held talks with CICC and Goldman Sachs about the offering and is dismantling its red-chip structure to facilitate an overseas listing.

Meanwhile... 

Here is the latest institutional commentary on Moonshot AI:

Jefferies analyst Roger Song

Moonnshot AI triggered another Deepseek-like moment + semi/ memory lost momentum, both potentially benefiting biopharma rotation. While still waiting for FDA leadership renewal, we started to see more potential policy reversals (while maintaining good ones, nice to see CRL release back for now) along with swift industry reactions. Open clinical trial prediction betting - will that be a distraction/ noise or another actionable datapoint for real investment? We shall all see.

Wolfe Research analyst Alex Zukin

China's Moonshot Unveils Kimi K3, Autonomously Designed Functional Chip in 48 Hours - Moonshot released Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts model with a 1-million-token context window and native text, image, and video support, positioned as the first open 3T-class frontier model with full weights releasing July 27, 2026 and API pricing at $3/$15 per million input/output tokens. The model autonomously designed a functional 4mm² chip in a single 48-hour run with zero human intervention, handling design, optimization, verification, and simulation, achieving over 8,700 tokens/second decoding throughput, while also building a custom GPU compiler called MiniTriton from scratch that reportedly matches parts of Nvidia's official Triton compiler. Kimi K3 scored 88.3 on Terminal-Bench 2.1, trailing but competitive with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, while lagging flagship closed models like Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 in broader evaluations, with the model available today via the Kimi app, Kimi Code, and OpenRouter

Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge

Meanwhile, sentiment toward AI stocks and hyperscalers' capex binge keeps weakening and today's release of a new AI model by Chinese company Moonshot, capable of competing with AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic, serves as a reminder that there are lower-cost alternatives for end users.

The race among AI startups to go public has China-based DeepSeek targeting a 2027 IPO, while US rival Anthropic could list as early as late 2026 and OpenAI increasingly appears headed for a 2027 debut. Both US firms have confidentially submitted IPO paperwork.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 20:25

Taiwan's President Ratchets Anti-China Rhetoric In Party Speech: Must Resist 'Red Terror' Of Beijing

Zero Hedge -

Taiwan's President Ratchets Anti-China Rhetoric In Party Speech: Must Resist 'Red Terror' Of Beijing

President Lai Ching-te said on Sunday that Taiwan must renew efforts to protect its democracy and never become part of China. He urged members of his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to oppose the "red terror" coming ‌from Beijing.

The ruling DPP champions Taiwan's separate ​identity from China, and is working to combat what Lai called China's "legal warfare".

via Bloomberg

"I also expect comrades within ‌the party to stand on the front lines, unite as one, and jointly oppose the ​threat posed by China's 'red terror' ‌to Taiwanese society," Lai added, speaking in Taiwanese, rather than the main language of government, Mandarin.

"We must work together ‌to protect our democratic and free way of life, and absolutely never allow 'democratic Taiwan' to turn back and become 'China's Taiwan'," he said.

"Regardless of ethnic group, regardless of who came earlier or later, anyone who identifies with Taiwan is a master of ‌the country. Taiwan's future must be decided jointly by the 23 million people of Taiwan," he said.

One establishment US publication has held up a prime example of Beijing's "legal warfare" against an autonomous Taiwan in the following:

On March 12, China’s legislature adopted the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress (ChineseEnglish translation), a sweeping new statute that codifies Beijing’s approach toward China’s 56 officially recognized ethnic groups. Substantively, the law enshrines a decades-long shift towards aggressive assimilationist policies. Structurally, it reflects a deepening merger of Party ideology and state law that is becoming increasingly prevalent under Xi Jinping.

This new law is the culmination of a policy trajectory that has been building for over a decade, dating back to the 2014 Central Ethnic Work Conference. Under Xi, Beijing is steering away from the post-1949 legal framework of nominal ethnic autonomy (albeit under tight Party control) imported from the Soviet Union. In its place, officials have steadily been pivoting towards what scholars have termed “second-generation ethnic policies”—an aggressive assimilationist approach that emphasizes a common Chinese national identity over accommodation of ethnic differences. Provincial and municipal authorities across China have enacted a wave of local “ethnic unity and progress” regulations in recent years, such as those in Xinjiang (2015) or Inner Mongolia (2021). The new national legislation elevates this approach to the level of a national statute governing all of China.

The new law’s core concept is captured in the term zhulao – to “forge” or “cast” metal – and its instruction that “forging the communal consciousness of the Chinese nation” is core to the Party’s ethnic policies.  As James Leibold has pointed out, this phrasing reflects a hardening of Beijing’s political line under Xi Jinping – explicitly written into the Party’s Charter at the 19th Party Congress in 2017 – aimed at “melting” subnational and ethnic identities into a shared collective one.

Meanwhile, on a global stage Beijing has continued to present itself as the only peace guarantor and as a force for stability and is seeking 'Taiwan's willing participation' - at a moment the Middle East is on fire largely as a result of American policy and quickness to result to force and surprise attacks.

And yet, President Trump has of late publicly touted his personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "amazing". Planned weapons deal with Taiwan have been indefinitely put on hold as Washington tries to repair relations with Beijing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 19:50

Trump Endorses Graham's Sister For Full Term, Shattering Expectations Of Short Stay

Zero Hedge -

Trump Endorses Graham's Sister For Full Term, Shattering Expectations Of Short Stay

Following the sudden July 11 death of Senator Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster triggered eye-rolling across America when he appointed Graham's sister Darline Nordone to take over the seat. At the time, the appointment of the unqualified sibling was widely understood as a mere interim honor, with Nordone serving as a placeholder pending the outcome of a special primary election to choose a Republican candidate for November's previously-scheduled election for the seat. Now, President Trump has asked Nordone to run in that primary race and pursue the full 6-year term that will start in January. 

"During her visit, I asked Darline, for the Good of our Nation, to run for the U.S. Senate in the Special Republican Primary on Tuesday, August 11, 2026," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "I hope Darline does this, in that there would be nobody better to honor the legacy of her beloved brother, Lindsey. Darline...comes from an absolutely incredible family [and] has been a WINNER all of her life...RUN, DARLINE, RUN!" 

While Nordone herself hasn't announced that intention, there are reports that she's "considering" it, and it's highly unlikely Trump would have bothered with a lengthy public endorsement unless Nordone was on the verge of jumping in the abbreviated primary race that already has less than a month left in it.  

At the press conference announcing her interim appointment, Nordone's language reinforced universal expectations of a short stay in the Senate:

“It is such a privilege to get to finish some of [my brother's] important work, and I promise to work hard over the next several months to support the president and carry forward the efforts of my brother on behalf of the citizens of South Carolina and the United States.”

Nordone has never held an elected office. She's a commissioner on the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, and previously held a communications role in the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department. Trump said he personally pitched Nordone on going after the seat on a permanent basis when she visited him in the Oval Office on Thursday. 

So far, three people have officially announced they're running for the seat: businessman Mark Lynch, who was trounced by Graham in the June GOP primary; Ralph Norman, a 73-year-old US House member; and Duke Buckner, a lawyer who has previously run for the state's heavily-Democratic 6th Congressional District seat. Shortly after Graham died, Norman asked Trump for an endorsement. The president was said to have replied, "Give me a week." In the meantime, Norman has been endorsed by Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Utah Sen. Mike Lee. 

The candidate list had been expected to grow, but Trump's preemptive endorsement of Nordone could have a chilling effect. Rep. Nancy Mace, who's poised to hand over her House seat in January -- having foregone reelection for a failed bid for governor -- teased at a run on social media within hours of Graham's death. On Friday, Axios reported she's still actively considering it. Rep. Russell Fry and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette are among others whose names have circulated. An Emerson College poll found that a Trump endorsement would likely sway 41% of South Carolina GOP voters, but an equal percent claimed it wouldn't have an effect. If no candidate scores not just a plurality but a majority of the votes on Aug. 11, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff election on Aug. 25. 

Graham was a chief champion of the West's proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, and a zealous collaborator with Israel in promoting American warfare against Iran. To the extent that Nordone would attempt to pick up those torches and run with them, she's sure to garner the backing of the military-industrial complex and the pro-Israel lobby. That said, it's far from clear how effective she would be, given her utter lack of experience in Washington politics.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 16:55

Judge Dismisses DOJ's New Mexico Voter Data Request

Zero Hedge -

Judge Dismisses DOJ's New Mexico Voter Data Request

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on July 14 rejected the Justice Department's attempt to obtain the private personal data of every registered voter in New Mexico, adding to the overall number of cases the DOJ has lost in which it has sought similar information.

The U.S. Department of Justice in Washington on Aug. 7, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

U.S. District Judge Judith C. Herrera dismissed the latest voter roll lawsuit, ruling that the department's demand letter lacked facts, proof of a pattern of violations, and explanations of necessity.

The court found that "the DOJ's Demand Letter fails because it altogether lacks an identifiable 'basis.' Nowhere does the DOJ articulate any factual suggestion that New Mexico has violated the NVRA [National Voter Registration Act] or HAVA [Help America Vote Act], indicate the State has a pattern or practice of noncompliance with the same, nor does it explain how the unredacted PII is necessary to evaluate compliance with the NVRA and HAVA."

The DOJ did not immediately return a request for comment.

New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver approved of the court's decision.

"I am pleased with the court's decision to dismiss this case. Federal and state legal guardrails on social security numbers and dates of birth exist for the identity protection of every voter in our state," she said.

She doubled down on the security practices deployed under her leadership.

"I absolutely will not risk any disclosure of voters' private data, as it could carry very real and severe consequences for the personal lives of New Mexicans participating in our democratic process," she said.

The Justice Department has now been barred in 14 similar cases nationwide, failing to obtain unredacted voter files via these lawsuits from states that declined its requests, according to Oliver.

A federal judge on June 29 threw out the Justice Department's lawsuit against New Hampshire. The state refused to disclose its unredacted statewide voter registration lists.

In a 26-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Joseph Laplante stated that those state-generated voter records fall outside those documents the federal government can demand under Title III of the Civil Rights Act of 1960.

In April, judges dismissed similar cases in Arizona and Massachusetts. In February, a judge rejected a DOJ request for similar information in Michigan.

In January, a federal judge in Oregon ruled along similar lines. U.S. District Judge Mustafa Kasubhai dismissed the Justice Department's suit requesting Oregon's list of registered voters. During a videoconference hearing, he granted the defendants' motion to dismiss the case.

The department alleged that Oregon's refusal violated the Help America Vote Act of 2002 and the Civil Rights Act of 1960.

The Justice Department filed lawsuits against six states in December 2025.

Aldgra Fredley contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 15:10

Mamdani's New York: West Side Homeless Camp Stretching 12 Blocks Now Allegedly Stealing City Power

Zero Hedge -

Mamdani's New York: West Side Homeless Camp Stretching 12 Blocks Now Allegedly Stealing City Power

You've likely seen it if you've the nearby Hell's Kitchen entrance to the Lincoln Tunnel...

What began as a growing homeless encampment on Manhattan's West Side has now escalated to alleged utility theft, according to the NY Post.

According to reports, one resident of the sprawling encampment was seen Tuesday tapping into city electrical lines to power a makeshift shelter near West 34th Street between 11th and 12th Avenue. The camp now stretches roughly a dozen blocks, from 34th Street to 46th Street near the Intrepid Museum, and has become an increasingly visible flashpoint for residents, commuters, and tourists.

The NY Post writes that bus drivers and local workers say the encampment has continued to expand over the past several weeks, with tents multiplying and sidewalks becoming increasingly obstructed.

Photo: NY Post

"It's been almost a month now and it gets a little bigger every time I come back," one FlixBus driver told the New York Post. He said garbage piled along the sidewalk forces passengers waiting for buses into the street, while some people living in the encampment have reportedly approached travelers asking for money. He added that complaints to city officials have produced little visible response.

Police officers were seen Tuesday ordering the individual accused of siphoning electricity to disconnect from the utility line. Elsewhere along the encampment, officers reportedly seized extension cords and power strips from another makeshift shelter. Despite those actions, there appears to be little expectation that the enforcement will significantly reduce the camp's size.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani has defended the city's broader approach, saying the priority is moving homeless individuals into shelters and ultimately permanent housing rather than simply dispersing encampments from one neighborhood to another. Asked specifically about the West Side encampment, he said the city would review the situation.

Despite growing attention, reports indicate that no sanitation crews or homeless outreach teams had been seen at the site in the days following news coverage of the encampment.

The camp itself has reportedly continued to grow, with additional tents appearing over the weekend. Reports also claim that the area has attracted people struggling with addiction, along with sex workers, adding to concerns from nearby businesses and residents who say conditions continue to deteriorate.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 14:35

Overloaded: From Trinkets To Compute And Market Structure

Zero Hedge -

Overloaded: From Trinkets To Compute And Market Structure

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Last weekend we published that the market was sitting on Multiple Inflection Points. We were concerned that many of the inflection points would resolve themselves negatively for the market:

  • Iran, which we didn’t even give the full “inflection” point treatment to, has deteriorated. While Brent finished the week at almost $90, up from just above $70, it seemed to be a “side story” at this stage. However, with the news of the U.S. service members killed on Friday in Jordan, the question becomes how this alters the U.S. strategy to pressure Iran to stop its attacks on shipping in the Strait and return to the table to continue negotiations.

  • AI Spend was the most important inflection point and that seems to be resolving itself rather negatively with the Philly Semi Index down 10% on the week! More on this later.

  • Russia/Ukraine. General (ret.) Spider Marks, Rachel Washburn, and I spent a lot of time talking about this conflict. I continue to be optimistic, maybe even a bit more optimistic than the consensus Geopolitical Intelligence Group view, but that’s my take.

  • Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade did little last week, but strength in the Yen remains a risk for the broader market.

  • Crypto and DATCos. With the volatility in other markets last week, the stability in this space was noticeable. The jury is still out on which way this inflection point will resolve itself, but the case that it is forming a solid base is growing.

  • Inflation. As one of the last people looking for not just cuts before hikes, but also cuts as early as September, Tuesday’s CPI numbers helped a lot! Some would argue that “Core” remains high, but it is artificially inflated by the “mysterious” way we choose to represent shelter inflation. (Yes, I’m hoping to get some call, out of the blue, to help re-evaluate what data decisions should be based on). Unfortunately, the resumption of increased hostilities in the Middle East and the limited amount of oil left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve don’t help my take on inflation continuing to decline. Though any material slowing in the AI Spend would push the Fed (on both inflation and jobs) to consider cutting. Last weekend (according to WIRP) the market was pricing in 1.5 hikes by the end of the December meeting. It is now at 1.26 hikes. I think that expectation will continue to come down. Will consider this week a “decent” win as expectations for hikes declined even as oil prices ripped higher.

The risk that these “inflection points” are at risk of overloading markets remains high!

SPCH SPCF LOFF SPCU SPAL SPCL SPCM

This may set a “new low” in terms of gobbledygook for a heading in the T-Report. I’m hoping you are wondering what the heck triggered such an insane looking heading!

Those are the ticker symbols for 7 ETFs that provide 2X the daily return of SPCX! I’ve listed them in order from largest to smallest. In total they have “only” about $420 million in AUM (it was probably higher before most of these ETFs saw a decline of over 50% since their highs). SPCL tracked a larger “index” pre-IPO but converted to SPCX only with the IPO, presumably to be “first to market” on the SPCX-leveraged IPO. In all fairness, there are at least 4 ETFs allowing investors to short (on a leveraged basis) SPCX.

I’m kind of reminded of some vague saying about rabbits. You start with 2 (presumably male and female) and wind up with a LOT of rabbits very quickly!

Does one IPO really need to inspire at least 10 single stock ETFs?

Apparently (I was too lazy to pull up the tickers) there are already a half dozen or so single stock ETFs that track the newly launched SKHY ADR.

It is already a complex process to price an IPO. That process can be made more difficult when only a portion of the float is sold initially. I have zero clue how any of these single stock ETFs help in terms of allocation of capital, or price discovery! If anything, they tend to amplify moves, as the leverage creates forced end of day buying or selling! That is the opposite of helping price discovery or establishing orderly markets.

I’m assuming any 4 letter combination of CHAT, OPEN, LLM, etc. has been purchased/registered in the “ticker” world. CHTU (Chat Up) or CHTD (Chat Down) seem obvious ones to own, to sell to an ETF manager (though, again, it is likely that they are already taken). Kind of reminiscent of when people were buying up domain names hoping to sell them.

I probably ranted too long to make the point that leveraged ETFs (single stock and index) tend to amplify moves in both directions!

SOXL

We might as well transition from market structure to the AI spend, with SOXL.

3X leverage on the NYSE Semi Index, with $19 billion of AUM, tends to amplify moves.

One “characteristic” of these market-structure impacting ETFs (in my opinion, and one I’m certainly guilty of) is that:

  • When a stock or sector that XYZ recommends goes higher, all the credit is attributed to the idea. It is all ixnay on the market structure when the market structure is helping support a move.
  • When a stock or sector that XYZ recommends goes lower, XYZ (whoever that may be) is quick to pull out the “technicals” or “market structure” card, as the culprit.

Leveraged ETFs (single stock and index) and Zero-Day to Expiration Options (0DTE and other short-term options) all tend to amplify moves. It is the nature of the beast. If there is potential for stop losses to be triggered, the amplification effect is even more powerful.

Is it time to buy the dip? If the parabolic move higher in the various semi-conductor indices owes some thanks to market structure (and I think it does), that market structure may have shifted from a tailwind to a headwind (or worse, a tailwind in the other direction).

From Cheap Trinkets to Cheap Compute?

I find myself admonishing myself and cautioning clients to put China circa 2005 out of their mind. The argument is basically that yes, China used to make “cheap” trinkets. That much of what they made was of lower quality and fell apart. No one really picked up an item that had a “Made in China” label and thought it was fine engineering!

In general, that just isn’t true in 2026. China makes high-quality components. China makes high-quality products. Intellectual Property ownership has shifted. Through a variety of methods (ranging from companies willingly exposing themselves to Chinese companies to access via less savory means), China has closed the gap on IP. In some areas, China is ahead on IP.

I admit, I checked out a BYD showroom when I was in Munich last week (please try not to judge how I occupy my free time ). The vehicles looked kind of cool and I already had decent expectations, unlike I would have had a few years ago.

Is Cheap Compute the “New” China 2005 Story?

I’m not sure why I say “2005,” but I do (I hope it gets the point across that we are talking about what China was like a couple of decades ago, when they really started to dominate global trade).

My take is:

  • China wedged their foot in the door by making some things at cheaper prices than anyone else could.
  • China was willing to accept things, like pollution and horrible labor conditions, to do that.

We ceded more and more manufacturing to China, and they got better and better at it.

  • China Inc. ensured that the Chinese government and Chinese corporations were in “sync,” making it easier to coordinate their push into global markets.
    • Unfair advantages at home, flooding markets to lower prices abroad, etc., were tools in their arsenal to dominate global manufacturing.

Over time, they made the shift from Made in China to Made by China:

  • Selling your brands makes more money for your country and companies than just making someone else’s brands.

Globally, companies now compete with China on a much more equal footing, in terms of product quality, while China has the ability to work as China Inc. (typically an advantage).

That has played a role in our construction of the ProSec theme, which we provided a mid-year update on.

Increasingly, I’m concerned that we may be at a “2005” moment in compute?

General (ret.) Groen discussed this and much more with me on a call this week. I will paraphrase much of what was discussed:

  • Are Chinese LLMs (and AI in general) as good as U.S. versions?
    • In general, no. Yes, it made big news on Friday, when a Chinese model did very well on some specific benchmark tests. For all we know, it was created/trained specifically for some benchmarks, which means it will do very well on those tests, but not necessarily perform well in the “wild.”
      • There are allegations and questions about how Chinese models attempt to train themselves on U.S. models, greatly reducing the cost and timing of training. Bad if true, but can it be stopped?
      • I’m told the politically correct term for this sort of “training” is to “distill” their models.
  • Is China selling compute cheaper than U.S. compute is being sold for?
    • Yes, potentially 5 to 10 times cheaper. This is where I keep circling back to my “2005” date. Were dinky cars made in China as good as elsewhere? Ummm, I guess if you take out lead paint concerns and other things, sure, but the reality was we all kind of “knew” that there were issues with them. But you could buy a pack of 5 for the price of 1 made elsewhere, and the decision got more complex (apologies to Spider, who wanted me to use snow globes, but I decided to stick with dinky cars).
    • I do NOT have TikTok installed. I’ve only been on TEMU twice in my life. I haven’t even been tempted to try one of the Chinese models (and those of you who know me know I’m easily tempted). Yet, kind of like the dinky cars, you can see the appeal.
  • The Half-Life of AI model domination seems to be shrinking. Probably an overly complicated (on my part) way of saying that AI is advancing rapidly. Every time you look at the benchmarks, there are models that have risen to the top of the charts that I barely knew existed (and I’m paying some attention).
    • Is AI able to generate new iterations of AI even faster? If you were, say, 3 generations behind, can you get to 1 generation behind extremely quickly? Seems plausible, especially if you are willing (or able) to “cut corners” on training?
  • Electricity. Does the U.S. have the electricity generation capacity to feed the demand for AI (and the general public)? Do we have the ability to get that power from where it is generated to where it needs to be (the grid)? How do we compare to China on that front?
    • While I don’t have the details, it seems on the surface that China has more capability for “plug and play” on the AI front than the U.S. does. Electricity, energy production, and transfer are near the TOP OF THE ProSec list for a reason.
  • NIMBY. We have discussed the AI Revolution as much as anyone (I think). We have been arguing that Data Center and AI construction (and electricity and to a lesser extent water) would be a major political issue in 2028 or sooner! No idea that it would be an issue that is defining some primaries already! New York State seems to be imposing a 1-year moratorium. I haven’t checked how that will work, but the fact that it is a talking point tells us something.
    • The AI industry needs to do better on community outreach. On top of everything else, there are National Security concerns at play. I’m not sure how the industry, or the national security apparatus, changes the direction in the U.S., but they need to increase their efforts.
      • There are plenty of areas building and pitching for more data centers and AI, so we are a long way from being out of the game, but we need to do a lot to not only protect the lead but also add to the lead (maybe the English coach could have applied that logic to the last 30 minutes as well).
    • I’m pretty sure that there is no equivalent of NIMBY in China. There are some things that one culture has that another culture doesn’t have, but at least there is some understanding of why you have that thing, or think that way. I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of people in China would just stare at you blankly, bemused by the concept of NIMBY getting in the way.
Bottom Line

Many of the “inflection” points have demonstrated a clear direction to which way they are headed, but with everything going on, expect more downside for the markets. DeepSeek was a moment. Treating cheap compute like manufacturing was treated circa 2005 is NOT a “moment.” I’m trying to avoid getting “sucked into the hype of the moment,” and wish I’d written the section on cheap compute Wednesday morning, before the recent news hit (we’d look a bit more proactive, rather than reactive), but I didn’t. The AI spend is at risk on multiple fronts, and while I expect earnings to be important, it now seems clear that even strong earnings, with very visible, very strong guidance for years to come, might not be enough! Last weekend, my perception was that earnings could propel sectors, especially the “compute” sector, higher, but I’m less convinced of that now. The story on “compute credit” seems to have deteriorated, even though we think it is overdone. It does seem like we might need a “debt diet” moment, where some company takes steps to make creditors happy, and finds that their stock responds positively to that action. While the Middle East is not helpful for lower inflation, any slowdown in the AI spend would be (though it would be awful for the economy). While I’m loath to end with a chart, today we are going to end with a chart.

While the Nasdaq 100 has been in a range for the past few weeks and has started moving lower, the S&P 500 equal weight index has been grinding higher and is extremely close to its all-time highs. In some ways it seems “crazy” to think that the S&P 500 equal weight and the Nasdaq 100 should have similar returns (we saw the post-Liberation Day rally in the Nasdaq 100), but finally the two indices closed the gap (noticeably the separation closed when both indices were moving lower).

Who knows, by Monday, the President may have sent something on Truth Social to change all of this (he controls the Iran narrative, and he did push back on the New York data center moratorium). If he does, we should find out at the same time as everyone else, because I don’t think “fast access” on Truth Social has been implemented yet (Trump Media Subscription Plan).

This should be an interesting week. Buy the dip, or get bearish? Of all the things listed, the concept of “cheap” compute from China concerns me the most!

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 14:00

Tropical Threat Emerges In Gulf Of America With US Refineries In Potential Crosshairs

Zero Hedge -

Tropical Threat Emerges In Gulf Of America With US Refineries In Potential Crosshairs

The National Hurricane Center has raised the probability of tropical development for Invest 91L to 80% over the next two to seven days.

The broad area of low pressure off Florida's west coast in the Gulf of America should be tracked into the new week, as early Sunday model guidance suggests it could eventually threaten offshore oil and gas rigs and coastal refineries.

NHC's latest Invest 91L update:  

A area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing.

Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward.

Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today.

In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today.

Formation odds:

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Model Track:

Refinery Map:

Regardless of Invest 91L's development, the broad area of low pressure will traverse northwest, away from Southwest Florida and towards the New Orleans area.

The Atlantic Hurricane season is beginning to move into an active phase.

Notably, El Niño generally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing upper-level westerly winds and vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropics, which disrupt tropical systems before they organize or intensify.

More on developing El Niño here.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 13:25

Taylor Farms Announces Recall Of Lettuce Shipped To 27 States Over Cyclospora Risk

Zero Hedge -

Taylor Farms Announces Recall Of Lettuce Shipped To 27 States Over Cyclospora Risk

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

U.S. lettuce supplier Taylor Farms expanded on July 17 its voluntary recall of iceberg lettuce from central Mexico due to concerns over its link to a cyclospora outbreak affecting Americans across the country.

Lettuce products that were possibly contaminated with the diarrhea-causing parasite were sent to 27 states, according to the company. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said July 18 the outbreak was linked to iceberg lettuce across five states and more than 1,000 people in the United States have been sickened by it.

“Consumers who have purchased the recalled iceberg lettuce should discard it immediately and not consume it,” California-based Taylor Farms said in a statement.

“Full refunds are also available at the location of purchase.”

States that were sent potentially contaminated lettuce products include Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The company added that it is actively removing affected products and ceased sourcing lettuce from the implicated lot in central Mexico. Taylor Farms reiterated that it is continuing to cooperate with the Food and Drug Administration, the CDC, and other authorities.

Taylor Farms released a full list of its potentially affected products, including various shredded lettuce and salad mixes, accompanied with their lot codes and use-by dates.

According to an earlier statement July 17, the company said it was voluntarily removing from U.S. markets all iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico. That decision was based on information the FDA provided to Taylor Farms regarding its products, the statement said.

“As a family owned and operated company, we are deeply concerned for those who became ill, their families, and the many Americans whose trust in the safety of their fresh produce has been shaken,” Taylor Farms said.

That trust is something we’ve worked for decades to earn, and we are committed to doing everything in our power to restore that confidence.”

U.S. health officials earlier this week announced it had traced “a single supplier of iceberg lettuce from Mexico used by Taco Bell locations where sick people ate before becoming ill.”

The popular fast-food chain addressed the issue in a statement on X, writing that it had removed all Taylor Farm products from its locations.

“We want you to hear it from us,” the company said. “So go ahead and enjoy your Taco Bell today.”

U.S. food distributor Sysco had also pulled all its Taylor Farms iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico.

Cyclosporiasis is caused by the microscopic parasite cyclospora that stems from produce and water contaminated with human feces.

As of the latest update available from the CDC, the outbreak has resulted in 1,644 cases and 94 hospitalizations.

The agency noted that the true number of cases could be much higher, as many people are able to recover without medical care and are not tested for cyclospora.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 12:50

French Gambling Regulator Orders ISPs To Block Polymarket

Zero Hedge -

French Gambling Regulator Orders ISPs To Block Polymarket

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

France’s Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), or the National Gambling Authority, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.

Prediction websites are considered illegal gambling, the ANJ said in a Friday press release.

The regulator said that Polymarket’s operations are not authorized in France and that advertising unauthorized gambling sites constitutes a criminal offense with fines of up to 100,000 euros ($114,000).

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, from elections and sporting events to economic data and geopolitical developments. Polymarket has surged in popularity over the past two years, with billions of dollars in trading volume, while drawing scrutiny from regulators over whether its event contracts constitute illegal gambling or unlicensed financial products.

Countries that blocked access to Polymarket include Singapore, Poland, Portugal, HungaryUkraineBrazil and Indonesia. At press time, Polymarket said it was geoblocked in 36 regions.

France’s gambling regulator first shared plans to block the platform in November 2024 for failing to comply with national gambling laws.

French gambling authority cites outcome manipulation concerns

France’s gambling authority said Polymarket boasts “addictive features” that are similar to regulated gambling offerings, but “amplified by the absence of the protective mechanisms found in the legal gambling market.”

It also cited potential outcome manipulation tied to some event contracts on Polymarket, adding:

“Some of the bets offered on this platform appeared to be rigged: for example, bets on the weather revealed that weather sensors may have been hacked.”

The cybercrime unit of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into this matter in May 2026 and found a lack of identity verification, such as Know Your Customer checks.

Prediction markets have also drawn scrutiny from US regulators. On June 17, Kentucky sued five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting platforms. At least 17 other states have followed suit.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued eight states, arguing they had interfered with the federal regulator’s exclusive authority over federally regulated event contracts. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:10

Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening 'Counter-Russia' Deterrence

Zero Hedge -

Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening 'Counter-Russia' Deterrence

In the latest development related to what some analysts have called the 'new Cold War' and nuclear saber-rattling between Russia and the West, Germany and France are planning a major nuclear exercise later this year.

The atomic drills were announced Friday, after a joint top-level meeting of the French and German governments near Cologne. "Alongside this work on a shared doctrine, German conventional forces will this year take part in a nuclear exercise of the French military," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz unveiled

picture alliance/dpa

He detailed while at a press event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron that a "strategic steering group" established by the leading European allies would continue looking at deterrence in the future, with an eye on Russia.

"This is complementary to our nuclear participation and deterrence within NATO, which we still hold to," he added. He also previewed "a maneuver in the autumn held on the initiative of France" - while speaking of the Ukraine war.

"We will clarify together what form exactly this participation will take," he said.

France is newly positioning itself at the forefront of nuclear deterrence for Europe, a role that the United States has long assumed, and currently still does.

According to some of Macron's statements at the same event: "Patriotism, yes; nationalism, never. At a time when Europe is rearming, to think that each of us separately accumulating capabilities is the way history is going is absurd." More details have been offered in the following:

Mr Macron and Mr Merz began the defence council at Nörvenich air base beside a French Rafale and a German Eurofighter – a symbolic backdrop after the aircraft designed to replace them was scrapped.

Nuclear deterrence offers one field where the strained partnership can still move forward.

German troops would play a conventional supporting role and would not control French weapons. Berlin will also help develop radar and space-based systems for detecting ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

Currently the United States and the UK, which both maintain nuclear arsenals, form the core of NATO's nuclear deterrence strategy. While France also possesses nuclear weapons, it does not yet participate on a leadership level in NATO's nuclear planning group. The US military also contributes F-35, refueling aircraft, and other support planes. 

Russia has not infrequently held its own strategic drills over the course of the last several years of war in Ukraine. It has also become the 'new normal' for Russia and Europe to hold rival conventional war games, amid threats, warnings and ongoing miliary flexing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 07:35

Nearly Half Of Poles Now Want To Stop Arming Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

Nearly Half Of Poles Now Want To Stop Arming Ukraine

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The reason is Poles’ radically shifting views towards Ukraine since the start of their spiraling dispute sparked by Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits.

Leading Polish conservative newspaper Rzeczpospolita published the results of a survey that it commissioned showing that 45.2% of Poles now want to stop arming Ukraine. The majority are from the opposition, which includes conservative and libertarian-nationalist (populist in American political parlance) groups who a separate survey recently showed could form a coalition government after fall 2027’s next Sejm elections, and is almost three times larger than the 18.3% from December 2022.

Krzysztof Bosak, one of the populist Confederation’s co-leaders, is quoted as reaffirming his party’s consistent policy of supporting conditional aid to Ukraine that tangibly advances Polish interests. Its rapid growth in popularity per the second-mentioned survey above is likely due to the public realizing that Confederation was right all along about Ukraine amidst their country’s spiraling dispute with it that was sparked by Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits.

This palpable sentiment is arguably responsible for why the conservative “Law & Justice” (PiS) opposition’s prime ministerial candidate boldly broke with this party’s leadership earlier in the week by calling on the EU to stop funding Ukrainian arms till it “enters the path of pro-human values.” PiS is also separately embroiled in a power struggle between co-founder Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki over the latter’s refusal to shutter his sub-group within the party.

The combination of these factors could lead to more disgruntled PiS supporters flocking towards Confederation, thus potentially turning the party in the senior partner in any coalition that could be formed after fall 2027’s next Sejm elections, which could lead to serious changes in Polish foreign policy. The second survey that was hyperlinked to in the introduction shows that Confederation and the Confederation of the Polish Crown that earlier split from it have more support combined than PiS.

It’s therefore within the realm of political reality that the populists maintain their role as the country’s most powerful opposition force, especially if support for PiS continues declining while support for Confederation continues growing, with Poles’ radically shifting views towards Ukraine being the reason. Rzeczpospolita’s report cites the Defense Ministry’s recently declassified statistics showing that the former PiS government gave Ukraine around €3.4 billion worth of military equipment from 2022-2023.

The National Security Bureau disclosed in early 2025 that Poland’s aid to Ukraine totaled 4.91% of its GDP by then (most going to refugees and the above statistics showing that the liberal coalition only sent around €350 million by mid-2026) and constituted hundreds of pieces of equipment. Although PiS has since hardened its approach towards Ukraine, just like its opponents did under public pressure, it could have preemptively averted Ukraine’s descent into an anti-Polish state had it attached strings to its aid.

For example, aid could have been sent only if Ukraine first allowed the full exhumation and proper reburial of the Volhynia Genocide’s victims, officially recognized and apologized for this war crime, and banned Banderism. That didn’t happen and now “Poland Finally Realizes The Geostrategic Challenge Posed By Ukraine”, thus further contextualizing why nearly half of Poles no longer want to arm what’s at this point their top regional rival, which also poses a latent security threat if it’s not soon denazified.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 07:00

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