Individual Economists

What Florida Students Have Been Mandated To Learn Will Make Leftists Lose It

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What Florida Students Have Been Mandated To Learn Will Make Leftists Lose It

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Florida is doing what no blue-state classroom dares: forcing students to confront the actual body count of communism instead of romanticizing it.

Starting this fall, every public school student from sixth grade onward will receive mandatory instruction on the history and evils of communism under standards signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The curriculum covers the Soviet Union, the Chinese Communist Revolution, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro.

It details the mass deaths under Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and Castro, the failure of collectivism, and the superiority of free enterprise and private property.

Education leaders have been blunt: too many young Americans romanticize socialism because they were never taught its real-world toll.

The requirement builds on Florida's existing Victims of Communism Day, which already mandated at least 45 minutes of annual instruction on those same regimes.

The fuller standards, approved by the State Board of Education in November 2025 and updated this year to include Maduro's autocratic rule and subsequent fall, take effect for the 2026-2027 school year.

DeSantis has been consistent. "The truth will set us free," he said when signing the underlying bill, adding "We will not allow our students to live in ignorance, nor be indoctrinated by Communist apologists in schools."

"To the contrary, we will ensure students in Florida are taught the truth about the evils and dangers of Communism," DeSantis further urged.

In a more recent post he added, "The DSA may try to make Castro out to be a HERO - but FLORIDA students know better!"

Former Education Commissioner Anastasios Kamoutsas put it this way when the standards were adopted: "With the resurgence of communist ideologies across the United States and throughout the world, it is more important than ever for students to understand the catastrophic failures and human suffering caused by communist regimes."

The standards themselves ensure students learn "the truth about how communist regimes suppress freedoms, abuse power, and inflict widespread suffering."

Instruction begins in middle school and continues through high school. Students will examine domestic communist movements and their tactics in the United States, the economic and political conditions that preceded communist takeovers, the spread of Cuban-style communism through Latin America, and direct comparisons between communism, totalitarianism, and the founding principles of American freedom and democracy.

The capture of Maduro has been folded in so the lessons stay current.

Florida's large exile communities from Cuba and Venezuela already know the difference between slogans and reality. The state is simply making sure every student gets the same clarity before they reach campuses where those slogans still circulate.

While Florida insists on historical accuracy, other jurisdictions continue to push mandatory ideological content in the opposite direction.

In Texas, public school students from Humble ISD's Kingwood and Atascocita high schools were recently bused to an Islamic center so they could "experience Islam."

The trip included observation of midday prayer, a presentation by a CAIR representative, and promotional claims that students left "changed." No equivalent taxpayer-funded field trips to churches or synagogues appear to have been organized.

At UCLA medical school, first-year students have been required to take a course on structural racism and health equity that includes mandatory reading promoting "fat positivity."

One assigned essay argues that the term "obesity" is a slur used to exact violence on fat people and frames weight loss as essentially hopeless. Former Harvard Medical School dean Jeffrey Flier called the material "extensive and dangerous misinformation" and "pedagogical malpractice."

At the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, a required first-year education course for future teachers leaked PowerPoint materials that prioritize leftist framing of immigration, race, and gender over basic classroom skills.

Slides instruct students to reject the term "illegal immigrants," emphasize "humanizing language," and treat resistance to ICE as a professional duty. A whistleblower noted the near-total absence of practical instruction on how to teach math or reading.

In Washington state's Olympia School District, officials refused parental requests to opt students out of Pride-themed lessons, declaring that such opt-outs would be "offensive and demeaning."

Non-participation was treated as an unexcused absence. The lessons form part of a broader gender-inclusive curriculum tied to state standards.

California has gone further. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation requiring student ID cards in middle schools, high schools, and colleges to carry the Trevor Project's LGBTQ crisis hotline.

The organization has faced criticism for its approach to gender issues and parental notification. Newsom framed the mandate as a direct response to federal policy changes under the Trump administration.

In Maryland's Montgomery County, LGBTQ-inclusive books were made mandatory reading in the English language arts curriculum with no parental opt-out and no advance notice required for most of the materials. Parents and even local Muslim organizations objected that the policy violated parental rights.

And in Kansas, sixth-graders at Marshall Elementary School in Eureka were told they could not name Charlie Kirk, President Trump, or Jesus Christ as role models in a "Find Your Voice" assignment.

The guidance counselor reportedly became angry when those names were suggested and excluded political and religious figures entirely. The American Center for Law & Justice has filed a civil rights complaint.

These examples reflect a pattern in which certain ideological frameworks are treated as non-negotiable while the documented human costs of 20th-century communism are often soft-pedaled or ignored.

Florida has chosen the opposite path: require the history, include the body count, and let students judge the results for themselves.

The new standards do not claim communism is the only source of historical evil. They simply refuse to leave students unequipped when they encounter professors or activists who still treat failed experiments as moral inspiration.

In a state that absorbed hundreds of thousands of people who fled those experiments, the choice is neither surprising nor complicated.

Florida students will now learn, as a matter of required curriculum, what the rest of the country too often prefers to forget.

The DSA can keep trying to rehabilitate Castro. The classrooms in the Sunshine State will keep teaching the opposite.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 14:00

Tehran Says US Sanctions Are 'Declaration Of War' On All Nations, Urges Global Revolt

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Tehran Says US Sanctions Are 'Declaration Of War' On All Nations, Urges Global Revolt

Tehran has on Saturday further addressed the new Trump-Bessent plan of long-term economic 'strangulation' and isolation, which in the US Treasury Secretary's words seeks to "collapse" the Iranian government with the "toughest sanctions in history." This of course means that Washington will have to at the same time pressure other nations that do business with Tehran to immediately cease, which could prove a tall order - given already China and Russia are clearly not going to comply.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said the new sanctions initiative amounts to a "declaration of war" on all countries and goes beyond "an illegal economic war against a single nation."

Via EPA

Baghaei said: “The announcement of new sanctions represents an attempt by the United States to exert extraterritorial sovereignty over all independent UN member states.”

"No government has the right to force foreign banks, enterprises, or airports, each operating under the exclusive jurisdiction of their own sovereignty, to refrain from engaging in legitimate trade with a third country," he continued, according to Fars news agency.

The ministery added that "such secondary sanctions have no basis in international law" and "violated the fundamental principle of sovereign equality enshrined in Article 2, Paragraph 1 of the UN Charter."

Baghaei previewed and warned that a surrender to "such intimidation would lead to the total erosion of national sovereignty" and serve as "a catastrophic return to blatant, full-scale colonialism."

This is clearly an attempt to put other countries on notice, urging them not to play Washington's game. The appeal might gain a sympathetic ear especially in BRICS and Global South countries.

The statement was issued on the heels of Iran's military days ago giving a more direct warning and threat to America's regional Gulf allies. On Wednesday Ali Abdollahi, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, announced that "any assistance or facilitation provided to the aggressor US military amounts to participation in the US military operation."

"It seems unlikely that such a large number of military aircraft, particularly refuelling aircraft, could be present at regional bases without knowledge of host countries," said Abdollahi. 

All of this is a mirror response to Bessent's Bush-style "you're either with us or against us" rhetoric.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, has issued some fresh words of his own. He claimed Tehran has received "numerous messages" related to new security and economic arrangements in the region as a result of US-Israeli aggression.

"The United States put the security of every single one of its allies at such risk through bullying and pure disregard for their interests for the sake of Israel that they briefly saw their entire existence on the line,” Ghalibaf stated on X.

"A homegrown, independent order is what will actually deliver peace and security," he added. Iran has for months said that various countries are seeking to strike their own separate arrangements for vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, something which if true gives the Islamic Republic further leverage. But the White House has been seeking to counter this narrative by feeding reports to Axios...

At the moment, Axios is claiming that millions of barrels of oil are still transiting via a 'stealth' corridor ensured by the US Navy, but there are many expressing skepticism over this. The past days have actually seen no new attacks on foreign vessels in the strait, as the plot thickens over competing narratives (given the Iranians have dismissed the Axios reporting as fabrications).

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 13:25

Beyond The Ban: Why Embracing AI Is Essential For Higher Education

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Beyond The Ban: Why Embracing AI Is Essential For Higher Education

Authored by Kent Ingle via RealClearEducation,

Rather than fearing generative tools or treating them as mere compliance threats, higher education must train students to master AI as an exponential multiplier for innovation, career success, and national prosperity. Generative artificial intelligence is vastly more prevalent, sophisticated, and accessible today than it was even six months ago.

Today's incoming students arrive on campus with the collective knowledge of human history sitting directly in their pockets.

They are navigating a digital landscape that is fundamentally rewriting how information is processed, analyzed, and created. Predictably, administrators across the country are responding with panic. Elite institutions are rushing to expand their rulebooks, update honor codes, and purchase unreliable detection software in a futile attempt to police the classroom.

This reactionary mindset misses the entire point. When higher education views artificial intelligence primarily as a cheating hazard, it defaults to censorship and control. But when we approach technology through the lens of human potential and future readiness, our entire perspective transforms. We should be asking how to train our students to master it responsibly from the ground up.

Attempting to ban these platforms is like trying to ban the calculator in a modern engineering department. Whether we choose to embrace it or not, generative software is now a permanent fixture of the global economy. In fact, it is currently the number one most marketable skill for people looking for new jobs out of college. Recent labor market data reveals that demand for artificial intelligence competency in entry-level roles has nearly tripled in less than a year, extending far beyond traditional technology companies into marketing, operations, human resources, and finance. To compete in a rapidly evolving market, the next generation cannot simply be passive consumers of technology. They must be fluent directors of it.

When leveraged properly, artificial intelligence becomes an exponential work and impact multiplier. It streamlines complex research, accelerates problem-solving, and synthesizes massive datasets in seconds. A properly equipped student learns to direct artificial intelligence as a powerful research assistant while maintaining total ownership over the final outcome. We must teach our young adults the difference between outsourcing their intellect and augmenting their capabilities.

Using artificial intelligence to skip the hard work of learning is a misuse of human potential. But using these platforms to elevate our thinking, automate routine labor, and tackle grand challenges is the exact formula for lifelong success and prosperity. This is not just about individual career placement. It is about national survival. Artificial intelligence is currently the fastest-growing economic sector in our country. It is catalyzing a trillion-dollar infrastructure buildout that is reaching all fifty states, revitalizing communities, and creating unprecedented opportunities across every sector. If American industry is going to maintain its leadership on the global stage, our workforce requires graduates who understand how to harness these tools to innovate at breakneck speeds. If we are going to continue to lead on the global industrial stage, we need more students ready to embrace AI, not less.

Censoring students from trying to cheat does not protect academic integrity. It simply leaves our graduates woefully unprepared for the economic realities of tomorrow. Relying on software for baseline tasks means that the value of genuine critical thinking and strategic foresight is actually higher than ever. Employers are actively seeking out graduates who possess the discernment to evaluate machine-generated outputs, spot inaccuracies, and apply human judgment to elevate mediocre drafts into exceptional final products.

Our duty as educational leaders is to prepare students for a life of success, prosperity, and leadership in a highly competitive world. We completely fail in that core mission if we allow administrative fear to prevent us from teaching digital mastery. Instead of building higher digital walls, universities must build stronger practical foundations. We must teach students that true excellence lies in combining technological fluency with unshakeable personal integrity. We must show them exactly how to prompt, evaluate, refine, and deploy these tools ethically so that they enter their careers equipped to perform.

Artificial intelligence is driving the fastest economic transformation of our lifetime, and it is the key to America's future competitive edge. The universities that thrive in this new era will not be the ones that tried to ban the future. They will be the ones that trained their students to lead it. As a new academic year begins, we owe it to the next generation to step forward with vision and confidence, equipping them to master this technology and secure the ongoing prosperity of American industry.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 12:50

"Stop Gaslighting Me!": Florida Socialist Who Beat Vindman Gets In Shouting Match With Democrat Party Chair

Zero Hedge -

"Stop Gaslighting Me!": Florida Socialist Who Beat Vindman Gets In Shouting Match With Democrat Party Chair

As regular readers know, establishment Democrats have been freaking out over the rise of socialist candidates - whose policy positions are virtually identical, except the socialists are getting elected saying the quiet part out loud - giving the game away. 

On Tuesday, Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon beat Russiagate hero Alexander Vindman in a shocking double-digit primary win in Florida - setting the stage for Nixon to square off with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November. The battle to unseat Moody was always going to be uphill - and now the state's Democratic party is freaking out.

According to Axios, Nixon and the state party's chair - Nikki Fried, got into a heated shouting match over the phone - with Fried reportedly warning Nixon that her DSA ties give the GOP an easy angle to attack going into midterms. 

"Nikki wants her to back away from DSA, from socialism," one person who spoke with Nixon told the outlet. "She's listening to other people saying that they're afraid, they're scared - the Jewish members and the Hispanic caucus. But to Angie, Nikki doesn't want Angie to be who Angie is. Angie has already done the backing-away."

On the call, Nixon told Fried, "You never gave a care about me from the beginning, and now you're telling me how to run my campaign?" according to the source. -Axios

An official with the Florida Democratic Party disputed that Fried yelled at Nixon - insisting that the state party tried to contact Nixon's team multiple times about a coordinated campaign - but that their calls weren't returned. That said, Nixon's field team did participate in a call with the party's coordinated campaign last week. 

"The DSA label could create an opening for misinformation and allow Angie's opponents to define her in ways that don't reflect her actual record or positions, rather than letting voters hear directly from Angie about what she believes and what she's running on," said the source. 

A second source told Axios that not only was the feud a clash of ideology - but "also a clash of personalities." 

"Nikki needs to be careful," said the source. "She can't afford to be seen by black voters disrespecting a black woman."

Another Florida Democratic official told the outlet that Nixon an Fried have always hated each other, and that Fried "was very disappointed that Angie won. She made that pretty well known."

More via Axios:

  • Before the election, the source said, Fried was predicting Nixon would lose and was "calling around telling people, 'Hey, can you make sure when he wins that Angie is nice and welcoming and does all the things to bring everybody together?'"
  • "I know Nikki doesn't like it, but Angie is the engine right now. Angie is the national story, and Nikki just can't stand it."
  • One of the Florida Democratic Party sources said that the organization did not favor Vindman over Nixon and was neutral in the primary.

Fried's freakout is just the latest example of establishment dems pushing back against the DSA. That said, Nixon was a recent 'convert' to the party, and according to the report - she was trying to distance herself from various DSA positions. She says she doesn't back abolishing prisons, just for-profit ones, she doesn't support open borders, and she doesn't want to defund the police (or so she says). 

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 12:15

Court Reduces $50 Million Judgment Against Alex Jones Over False Sandy Hook Hoax Claim

Zero Hedge -

Court Reduces $50 Million Judgment Against Alex Jones Over False Sandy Hook Hoax Claim

Authored via Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A Texas appeals court on Aug. 21 drastically reduced a judgment owed by Infowars host Alex Jones, shrinking the amount from $50 million to around $6 million, over his commentary falsely calling the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting in Connecticut a hoax.

Jones and his company, Free Speech Systems LLC, appealed the multimillion-dollar settlement after a jury in 2022 found him liable for “defamation and intentional infliction of emotional distress” after the shooting in which 20 children and 6 faculty were killed.

The Texas Court of Appeals for the Third District denied many points of Jones’ appeal, and did not reverse a previous $4.2 million judgment for one of the plaintiffs.

But it did side with his argument that Neil Heslin and Scarlett Lewis, whose 6-year-old son, Jesse, died in the attack, should not have been allowed to alter their lawsuit after the jury verdict in order to seek more damages.

The parents had amended their suit to say the hoax claims caused them to be “disabled” by “severe emotional disturbance.” That meant Jones would be liable for “injury to a disabled person,” and the normal $750,000 cap would not apply.

“Concluding that the trial court erred by allowing the parents to amend their pleadings after the trial, we will modify the judgment by limiting their exemplary damages awards to a total of $750,000” per parent, Chief Justice Darlene Byrne wrote in the three-judge panel’s unanimous decision.

The panel said a trial court “abuses its discretion” when it allows plaintiffs to amend their claims after a jury verdict, because then the defendant “could not anticipate or defend against the pleading.”

Jones called the decision a “massive victory for the First Amendment” in an Aug. 21 post on X. His legal team intended to take the case to the Texas Supreme Court to reclaim the rest of the judgment, the post also said.

The parents were part of a group that brought multiple suits against Jones based on statements he made after the event.

The court summarized the parents’ accusation against Jones: They alleged he said that “Sandy Hook parents were participating in a sinister manipulation plan to fool the public or that a shadowy cabal of elites pre-planned the murder of their children and controlled the coverage of the event through the media manipulation.”

Parents testified that they were harassed and received death and rape threats as a result of his statements.

Mark Bankston, who represented Lewis and Heslin in Texas, said that the ruling doesn’t make a big difference in the case.

“The families care not at all about this irrelevant ruling which affects only two of the 19 claims they all share. Jones still faces over a billion dollars of liability, so this changes absolutely nothing. All it does is highlight the absurdity of Texas law,” Bankston said in a statement.

Last October, the U.S. Supreme Court also rejected an appeal by Jones to overturn a separate $1.4 billion judgment against him. He filed for bankruptcy in 2022, and satire news outlet The Onion has purchased Infowars.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 11:40

Canada-US Trade War Erupts, Setting New 50% Tariffs On Canadian Goods

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Canada-US Trade War Erupts, Setting New 50% Tariffs On Canadian Goods

US-Canada trade negotiations collapsed at the 11th hour, just before the midnight deadline, triggering 50% tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods (under a never-before- used Section 338 provision of the Tariff Act of 1930) and prompting globalist-aligned, China-sympathizing Prime Minister Mark Carney to promise an equivalent response.

"Tonight, Canada declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week," the United States Trade Representative wrote on X early Saturday morning.

The USTR continued:

Despite the U.S. offer to Canada to receive the best treatment of any major exporter to our market, new demands and walk-backs of other commitments by Canada have upended the careful balance reached in the past days. In addition, Canada is continuing to maintain its prolonged retaliation against the United States, including, among other things, flat-out prohibitions on certain American goods and services.

For decades, Canada has enjoyed the most favorable access to the U.S. market of any country. And from the beginning of President Trump's trade program, Canada has continued to enjoy the best treatment in the world, even after, like China, retaliating against the United States. This week, the United States agreed to provide even better treatment to Canada, offering significant tariff reductions on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber.

The U.S. offer was also forward-looking and included a historic economic and national security partnership to cooperate on export controls, combat transshipment, enhance digital trade, and align certain external tariffs. The offer would have led to supply-chain coordination on aerospace, complementary actions to address unfair trade practices, critical-minerals cooperation, increased enforcement against imports produced with forced labor, and the announcement of formal U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiations.

This is a missed opportunity for Canada to partner with the United States, which is the fastest-growing economy in the G7.

Canada responds:

Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, as well as the former chairman of Brookfield Asset Management, which has an estimated $23 billion in China-linked assets (as of 2021), blamed Washington for the breakdown in trade negotiations. He pledged to match the new US tariffs "dollar for dollar" to protect Canadian workers and businesses.

But Carney's commitment to deeper North American economic integration warrants close scrutiny, given Brookfield's substantial commercial exposure to China.

Read:

Carney's previous and questionable business links to Beijing were brought into focus earlier this year following a visit to China, when he noted how much the world had changed since the last visit by a Canadian prime minister a decade earlier and suggested that renewed progress and partnership with China positioned both countries for the emerging "new world order." Translation: Carney's allegiance might be with the West but, instead, to the East.

Carney's decision to suspend negotiations and pursue a tit-for-tat trade conflict with the Trump administration will inevitably fuel questions about Ottawa's move toward a prolonged tariff battle that would raise costs for American businesses and consumers at a politically sensitive moment, potentially creating another economic headwind for Trump ahead of the US midterm elections.

The proposed US-Canada trade deal would have reduced US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25%, lowered automotive duties to 15%, and eliminated a 10% levy on lumber. It also included cooperation on export controls and digital trade, as well as formal negotiations to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 11:05

Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong

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Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A 5% long bond isn’t the crisis, it’s the receipt, and the fifteen years when money was free did far more damage to growth than normal interest rates ever will.

This past week, two charts crossed my desk, arguing the same thing from opposite ends. The Kobeissi Letter flagged that U.S. borrowing rates just hit their highest level since 2007. Then, my friend and colleague, Adam Taggart, framed the economy as a submarine, with bond yields as the surrounding water pressure, asking how close we are to the hull giving way. Both are hunting for the same “implosion point.” Both are anchored to an assumption I think is wrong, namely that a 5% long bond is a “crisis” rather than a price. Normal interest rates are not a crisis, and the level of the long bond is the least useful number in this entire debate.

The Submarine Metaphor Has A Flaw

Let’s start with Adam’s analogy, which is vivid and understandable, and why it had traction. Depth equals pressure; pressure equals stress; and somewhere down there, the hull of the ship fails. The symbolism is good; a submarine has a fixed “crush depth” set by the laws of physics. However, an economy doesn’t. What matters isn’t how deep yields go, but whether the borrower’s income is compounding faster than the interest clock is ticking. Moreover, we must know how much of the existing debt has actually repriced.

Here’s the problem with that argument in its popular form. It treats a 5% long bond as the oddity. Yet a 5% long bond is NOT the anomaly. What was odd was the fifteen years of zero-rate policy and four rounds of quantitative easing that taught a whole generation of investors that money was “free.” We’ve written about this before, and the data on rising interest rates has consistently refused to cooperate with the crash thesis.

So the first job is to define what “normal” actually means. If normal interest rates are the 5% kind, then the last decade and a half was the anomaly, and the current tape is a return to form. If free money is the baseline, everything looks like a crisis. One of those framings has 60 years of data behind it.

Rates aren’t the disease. They’re the thermometer.

Normal Interest Rates Are Not A Crisis

Let’s put the current level in context using the Federal Reserve’s own constant-maturity series, which runs daily back to 1962. I pulled all 16,129 observations rather than trusting anyone’s screenshot.

Notice what the gold bars do. After adjusting for expected inflation, today’s real long yield of roughly 2.8% sits within 30 basis points of the pre-crisis norm. That’s less than half the 1980s level and nowhere near a record. The 2009 to 2021 column, where the real long yield averaged 0.92%, is the outlier that needs explaining, not this one.

In other words, what were historically normal interest rates now look strange to us only because we spent fifteen years learning the wrong baseline. Of course, a 5% long bond feels violent after a decade of 2%, but that says much more about our reference point than about the bond market.

Secondly, I mentioned the Kobeissi framing, which is accurate on its face, and I’d only tighten one detail on their analysis. When looking at the Fed’s constant-maturity data series, the last comparable print to the August 17th high of 5.31% was June 12, 2007. Therefore, describing a return to the 2007 level as a bond market gone “crazy” quietly concedes that the ZIRP period was the “baseline,” when it wasn’t. That was the anomaly.

The Interest Burden Isn’t Unprecedented

Now, let’s explore where the debate usually pivots after ending the level debate. “Yes, but servicing costs are the highest level ever,” is usually the next progression in the debate.

However, this is where the “doom” case is the weakest. Ken Buck, writing in The Epoch Times, calls the national debt “a bona fide job-killer” and cites daily interest payments of nearly $2.8 billion. While the interest rate figure is correct, the conclusion drawn from it is not.

Read that chart again. Washington’s interest bill, measured against the size of the economy it is borrowing from, sits exactly where it stood in 1991, back when Alan Greenspan chaired the Fed and not one commentator was writing about “fiscal collapse.” That isn’t a record, and it isn’t off the chart. What came next was the 1990s. Such is the fact that never survives the trip into a “debt spiral” thread.

So is the debt “harmless”? Not even remotely, and I have never said that it was. The risk is real, and I have written numerous articles about the “negative multiplier” of debt on the economy. It’s just nothing like the risk on offer in the headlines, and you can only see it by dividing the interest bill by the debt stock. Normal interest rates aren’t the danger here; rather, the gap between what we pay and what the market charges is.

Let me say one thing about measuring the data, as it matters. The figures above use OMB’s net interest outlays, the budget line item, which is the only series that runs consistently back to 1940. Treasury’s gross interest expense on the public debt is larger, roughly $1.2 trillion or about 4% of GDP in fiscal 2025, because it includes interest credited to federal trust funds. This is an important distinction because it is an intragovernmental transfer rather than a cash cost to the public. Either measure works, but you can’t mix them in the same comparison, and the “Persistent Purveyors Of Doom” mix them constantly.

With all that said, we can sum it up in one sentence. We currently carry ten times the debt at half the interest rate. More importantly, the debt burden looks manageable today only because the average coupon on $40 trillion is still roughly 2.61%, a legacy of borrowing enormous sums during the zero-rate years. Every month, some of that cheap paper matures and gets refinanced at market, and the interest-rate bill rises even if the Fed cuts, and the 30-year yield never moves again.

Think about it this way. If we repriced the entire Treasury stock to July’s 5.21%, the interest rate burden would jump to roughly $2.03 trillion, or 6.4% of GDP. That would certainly be new territory. However, it also would not happen overnight, because the average maturity of the debt is measured in years.

A homeowner is a great example of this. Let’s assume a homeowner locked a 2.6% mortgage in 2021 and is now watching the reset schedule arrive one year at a time. When the rate reset day arrives, nothing breaks, but the payment slowly increases until it starts crowding out everything else in the budget. That’s all that is happening with the federal balance sheet, and it’s a slow grind through the maturity schedule rather than a sudden, irreversible, and devastating hull breach.

Where Debt Actually Bites

Don’t mistake me for being “Pollyannish.” There is a real mechanism that does damage, it is just not interest rates. It’s what each borrowed dollar buys. Using OMB debt data alongside BEA nominal GDP, I calculated how much federal debt was added per dollar of nominal growth across six periods.

In the late 1960s, 23 cents of new federal debt came with each dollar of nominal growth. Since 2015, it has taken about $1.52. Therefore, when you spend more than a dollar of borrowed money to buy a dollar of output, you aren’t “stimulating” anything. You’re substituting. Lacy Hunt at Hoisington has made this case for years, and the arithmetic keeps proving him right.

This is the damage, and notice that normal interest rates play no part in it. The multiplier broke down hardest during the zero-rate era, when money was as cheap as it has ever been in American history and Washington borrowed with both hands because carrying the debt cost almost nothing. Cheap money didn’t fix the problem. It fed it.

Where the popular version goes wrong is the causal chain. Buck describes “crowding out” as debt service that is “pushing investment into Treasury bonds.” That isn’t the mechanism. Crowding out happens because deficit financing competes for a finite pool of national savings. And the CBO, whose 33-cent estimate Buck cites, explicitly notes that private investment falls by less than national saving does, because higher rates attract foreign capital. That’s why the figure is 33 cents, and not a dollar, within a published range of 15 to 50 cents.

Why Normal Interest Rates Are Disinflationary

Here’s the part almost everyone gets backward. Rising long yields are read as an inflation signal, and rates do, in fact, respond to inflationary inputs such as oil prices. However, a study of the data suggests something more interesting, and the decomposition is straightforward.

The front end fell 168 basis points while the long end rose 117. Meanwhile, long-run inflation expectations moved just 20 basis points, and the forward measure the Fed actually watches went the wrong way for the inflation thesis. So roughly 97 of those 117 basis points is real yield and term premium. Not price fears, but rather compensation for duration.

That is a bear steepener driven by supply and term premium while the central bank eases, and it’s a disinflationary configuration, not an inflationary one. Investors are demanding more compensation to hold duration against relentless issuance. They are not demanding compensation for future inflation.

The transmission runs like this. Debt-funded spending pulls demand forward from tomorrow into today, and then servicing that debt diverts income from consumption to interest payments, which is a transfer from one pocket to another rather than new output. Call that “austerity” by arithmetic instead of by legislation.

Read that again carefully, because this is the crux of the “negative multiplier” of debt. For each newly borrowed dollar, its purchasing power buys less economic growth than the dollar before it. When that occurs, as it is currently, demand weakens, money velocity falls, and pricing power erodes. That’s the Japanification path we’ve written about before, and Japan ran that experiment for three decades without producing inflation.

The Pushback: Doesn’t The Long End Still Matter?

So, here is the question that keeps landing on my desk almost daily.

“Higher treasury yields must eventually reach households, so isn’t this just a matter of time?”

The objection is certainly valid. If normal interest rates were doing real damage, the “transmission” should be visible somewhere in the household data by now.

Over the past year, the 10-year Treasury rose about 43 basis points, and the 30-year rose by 39 basis points. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage rose only 9 basis points from 6.58% to 6.67%.  Roughly one-fifth of the move in Treasuries actually reached the borrower, because the primary mortgage spread compressed from 231 basis points over the 10-year to 197, absorbing most of the increase before it ever hit a closing table. Kobeissi’s suggestion that mortgages could approach 8% requires another 133 basis points that the market is currently refusing to deliver. Could it happen? Sure. But it just isn’t happening today.

Furthermore, credit data tells a similar story with an important wrinkle. Credit card balances 90 days or more past due just hit 13.1% in the first quarter, which is a 15-year high. However, aggregate household delinquency rates have remained at 4.8% and have barely moved, while credit card transitions into early delinquency have actually ticked down. While the New York Fed describes the pattern as “K-shaped”, it is the prime borrowers who are fine, while subprime and the 18-to-29 cohort are genuinely struggling.

In other words, the stress at the bottom of the income ladder is “crowding out” working with brutal efficiency, and it holds down spending without threatening the banking system. It is the disinflation showing up in real households, and it tells you that normal interest rates are doing their job: pricing risk and rationing credit.

What Normal Interest Rates Mean For Portfolios

The commentary from Adam and the others is great for getting clicks and views, but as Adam always states, this is about making “thoughtful decisions for your money.” Therefore, if we follow the argument to its end, it lands in an awkward place for both camps.

  • If debt truly suppresses growth, and if the long end is repricing real term premium rather than inflation, then a 5.2% 30-year yield is not a warning that the economy is about to break.
  • Instead, it’s the price a lender can now demand in a market that has lost its biggest price-blind buyer.

When it comes to carrying bonds in a portfolio allocation, we favor that analysis. Think about it this way. If real yields are near 2.8%, with long-run inflation expectations anchored around 2.5% and a growth impulse that weakens each time debt substitutes for output, such seems to be a reasonable entry point for extending duration in portfolios.

We are not saying do so aggressively, and certainly not all at once. Investors can buy into weakness, layer purchases in tranches, and allocate them to the part of a portfolio that still holds equities.

Will that trade be right immediately? No. The term premium can widen further, and the Treasury’s issuance mix at the long end is a policy decision nobody can forecast. If fiscal deficits keep widening, and foreign demand weakens, the long bond can grind higher for longer than any valuation argument suggests. However, that is the cost of this position, and you should size it knowing that.

However, the trade-off cuts the other way too. Extending duration reduces portfolio volatility and gives you a hedge that actually works if growth disappoints. It also protects your principal investment when held to maturity. However, it caps your portfolio upside if nominal growth surprises to the upside. As Howard Marks keeps reminding us,

“You don’t get paid for being early, you get paid for being right about what you’re being compensated to own.”

What does this mean for investors? Stop treating normal interest rates as a crisis gauge. Watch the average coupon on the federal debt, the rate of change in term premium, and whether nominal growth is outrunning the interest clock. Those three tell you something, but the “scary” headlines about yields tell you almost nothing.

The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 10:30

Diesel Crack Spread Madness Deepens As Jefferies Finds No Easy Exit From Russia's Refining Crisis

Zero Hedge -

Diesel Crack Spread Madness Deepens As Jefferies Finds No Easy Exit From Russia's Refining Crisis

Refined-product markets have emerged as the epicenter of the global energy crisis, with commodity desks across Wall Street, including Goldman, Citi, Bank of America and Jefferies, warning that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine's ongoing long-range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are converging into a perfect storm for global fuel supplies.

As we close out this week, Monday marked a historic milestone, with Bloomberg's front-month US diesel crack spread (HOCL1 Index) topping $100 per barrel for the first time as the diesel shortage intensified and the spread landed on everyone's radar.

Four days before the HOCL1 Index breached the $100 mark, we cited notable Wall Street commodity desks that warned about the "perfect storm" brewing in refining markets:

Then, early Monday morning, we reported:

By late evening, our X post on the HOCL1 Index had gone absolutely viral because a reading above $100 is not only unprecedented, but also suggests, as we noted, that the "industrial economy either grinds to a halt or consumers are about to be hit with the biggest energy pass-through in history."

Then, by Wednesday, Jeff Currie, the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, went on CNBC to explain, as we've warned, that the real crisis is not in crude, but in diesel markets.

"Nobody on the planet earth consumes crude oil," Currie told CNBC. "Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look considerably uglier."

By Thursday, Currie explained that the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.

"Stop looking at crude. Nobody consumes it but refineries. The economy runs on gasoline and diesel, and that consumption-weighted basket costs $165 against $85 WTI," Currie wrote on X. Read the report.

Certainly, all this attention on diesel crack spreads was enough to have many others on X discussing what the spread meant and its implications...

For more color on how Ukraine's expanding drone campaign is achieving what years of Western sanctions failed to deliver to Washington and European elites, Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne spoke with Ronald Smith, a specialist in Russian oil and gas, to discuss the ongoing and worsening crisis in Russia's refining and product markets.

"Repair downtime is often short, but consistent strikes have pressured throughput, leading to export product bans. Gasoline exports are unlikely to resume until '27. The diesel ban could be lifted in Oct, but volumes will likely stay low, continuing to support cracks. Asked about paths forward, answers were few," Byrne wrote in the note published Thursday.

Here are Byrne's highlights from the conversation with Smith, which provide readers with a better understanding of Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian energy assets as one of the factors, along with Hormuz disruptions, driving global refining markets into crisis:

Russian Refining Overview. Russia has nameplate refining capacity of ~6.7mmbpd (~6.5% of global capacity); however, throughput has historically been lower, at ~5.0-5.5mmbpd. In Aug '26, throughput collapsed to ~4mmbpd amid ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes. In '25, Russia produced ~0.95mmbpd of gasoline and ~1.7 mmbpd of diesel, but due to the Ukrainian attacks, Aug '26 gasoline is down to ~0.65mmbpd and diesel to ~1mmbpd.

Ukraine Drone Campaign. In Jan '24, Ukraine began launching sporadic strikes on Russian refineries, but attacks climbed from Aug to Sept-25 with ~3 refineries hit per week. Attacks dipped in 1Q26 (~1 pw), before intensifying to ~4 pw in May-Jul 26 and up to ~5 pw in Aug '26, leading to a fuel crisis & export restrictions. Strikes have focused mainly on refineries near Ukraine (e.g., Syzran, Saratov, and Ryazan), but the attack on Omsk (2,675km) demonstrated both the expanding reach of Ukrainian drones and the vulnerability of Russia's most sophisticated refinery. While some larger/select refineries have been consistently targeted (e.g., Ryazan & Ufa), other scale plants have been hit a only a few times, with little recognizable pattern.

Refinery Outages. The duration of downtime depends on the complexity of the unit hit and the availability of replacement materials, with no average downtime per strike. That said, ~50% of outages are <2w and ~75% are <1m, but there have been a handful of 3-6m outages (e.g., Moscow). Mr Smith highlights that Soviet refinery units were designed to be dispersed to defend against strikes, and that Russia has developed domestic engineering capabilities. Still, sanctions and technology restrictions play a role, but China has been somewhat supportive, per Mr Smith. To compensate for the damaged refineries, functional refineries are running at higher utilizations and are encouraged by officials to delay maintenance, which may lead to more unplanned outages if continued. Deputy PM Novak recently stated that several refineries will return to service in the near future.

Russian Product & Crude Exports. In '25, Russia was a net exporter of ~150mbpd of gasoline, ~850mbpd of diesel, and ~30mbpd of jet fuel, but through '26 these have plunged amid persistent refinery outages. In April '26, Russia banned gasoline exports and, in July '26, diesel exports. In aggregate, Mr Smith estimates that Ukrainian drone strikes have removed ~1.1mmbpd of refined products from global mkts, mostly diesel (~750mbpd). Mr Smith asserts that gasoline exports are unlikely to resume until '27, but the diesel export ban could be lifted post-harvest season (Oct), but with exports staying low. This depends on the pace of Ukraine's drone campaign, the speed of Russia's repairs, and Russian defensive effectiveness. With no global product exporter able to fully offset the lost exports, Russian outages will continue to put upward pressure on crack spreads.

Because of the lower refining capacity available, crude exports surged to ~8.9mmbpd in July '26, but remain below OPEC+ quotas. Mr Smith suggests that Russia could be at physical crude export limits, and export capacity could be compromised by drone strikes.

Professional subscribers can read much more about crack spreads and the energy crisis on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 09:55

President AOC's First Term

Zero Hedge -

President AOC's First Term

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

The date is August 20th, 2032.

We’re nearing the end of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s first term as president.

The wave of naive optimism that swept her into power has faded. But the damage is done. With a majority in both the Senate and House, the Democrats made big moves.

First they eliminated the Senate filibuster. No more 60 votes needed to pass most legislation. Now a simple majority will do. The political equivalent of a nuclear first strike.

Then AOC’s coalition created two new states: Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. That’s 4 more Democratic Senators, and additional seats in the House.

The Supreme Court was quickly expanded from 9 to 13 justices. The number of justices has changed before, and there’s no hard and fast rule in the Constitution.

Justice Clarence Thomas, the court’s last Constitutionalist, retired in 2028 due to health issues. So the highest court in the nation has 5 new neoliberal judges.

ICE was abolished almost immediately. Immigration, both legal and illegal, is out of control. Another 11 million illegals have entered, mostly from Latin America. And 4 million visa workers. Another 4 million refugees and “asylum seekers” from Africa and the Middle East.

All this immigration undercut American workers’ wages, drove up real estate prices, took over small towns, and drained social welfare programs.

Green cards are now granted to immigrants who have been in the country for 3 years, regardless of how they entered. Citizenship and voting rights after 6 years.

The Democrats quickly set themselves up for a permanent majority.

Fruits of the Revolution

The unemployment rate hit 18% this year, even with all the book-cooking. AI, outsourcing, and poor leadership have taken a toll.

The federal deficit hit $5.3 trillion. The stagflation which began in 2029 shows no signs of letting up.

Inflation is running at a 16% clip. A gallon of gas costs $11.34, and diesel is $15 if you can find it. A third of American oil refineries have been shuttered under new environmental regulations.

Anyone worth more than $1 million faces an annual wealth tax of 3%. Family businesses are sold at firesale prices. Wealthy Americans flee the country, taking their assets with them.

Power blackouts are common in big cities. No new generating plants have been built, and data centers continue to tax the grid. With copper trading at $30 a pound, thieves rip out cabling anywhere they can find it.

The Green New Scam reached new heights. Billions of dollars were handed out to politically-connected crooks to build high-speed rail, electric vehicles, and “carbon-free” energy. It’s a total writeoff.

Biden-era censorship on social media platforms returns.

‘Equality’

Households earning less than $80,000 per year now receive Universal Basic Income (UBI) of about $30,000 a year. Barely enough for a family to live on.

UBI was celebrated by the masses early on. But the lack of motivation to get up and work creates a pervasive malaise across the country. Tent cities sprout up like weeds. The scourge of drug addiction worsens.

DEI returns with a vengeance. All of President Trump’s executive orders were reversed in the first month of AOC’s term. Companies are punished harshly if they have too many white male executives. Diversity quotas are enforced with an iron fist.

Universal healthcare went live in 2030. If you thought the old system was bad, this is a nightmare. Patients often wait a year to see a specialist. Need a scan? Tough luck.

Healthcare fraud reaches new levels as criminals target an exploitable system.

It’s been a tough few years. Yet AOC is still on track to win a second term. Millions of new immigrant voters will be the deciding factor.

Back to the Present

I wrote this piece as a thought experiment, pondering what could happen if Dems sweep Congress and win the presidency in 2028.

Honestly, this scenario isn’t all that crazy. It could well happen.

The Republican party needs to get their act together, quickly.

Trump really needs to resolve the war with Iran before midterms. It’s incredibly unpopular with independents and the libertarian-leaning right. If he doesn’t, the chances of a socialist sweep rise significantly. And as I explained above, the consequences could be catastrophic.

Republicans should not let that happen. Make a deal with Iran and be done with it. Re-focus on the American people. If the war is ongoing and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed during midterms, it’s not going to go well for the GOP. It gives far too much firepower to the Dems.

If a socialist like AOC wins, it’s going to be bad news for all Americans, but especially business owners and investors. Our friend Jim Rickards recently wrote the following:

The rise of socialism inside the Democratic Party is an enormously important political story on its own. But it also has huge investment implications that could affect your portfolio.

Many democratic socialists favor higher taxes on wealthy households, expanded government healthcare and tuition programs and sweeping changes to policing, immigration and other institutions. Some prominent figures on the left have also supported “wealth taxes” — which would tax certain holdings of property, shares, bonds and other assets rather than merely income.

Jim nails it, per usual. Much is at stake. If someone like AOC wins, our country might not recover for decades. If not longer.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 09:20

Spain & The UK Lead In Football Fandom

Zero Hedge -

Spain & The UK Lead In Football Fandom

As Europe’s major football leagues return from their summer/World Cup break, fans in Spain and the UK are especially eager to get the ball rolling.

In both countries, 78 percent of self-identified sports fans say they follow football teams or competitions - more than in Italy, Germany or France.

Indeed, as Statista's Felix Richter details below, the appeal football extends well beyond dedicated sports audiences.

 Spain and the UK Lead in Football Fandom | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Data from Statista Consumer Insights shows that 46 percent of all respondents in Spain and 42 percent in the UK follow football, compared with 37 percent in Germany and 32 percent in France.

The United States remains an outlier among the countries surveyed, with only 11 percent of all respondents following the sport.

It will be interesting to see if the World Cup can make a meaningful difference in raising that number, so stay tuned for next year's edition of the survey.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 08:45

A Call To Power: Islamic Leaders See Ballot Box As Path To Paradise

Zero Hedge -

A Call To Power: Islamic Leaders See Ballot Box As Path To Paradise

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations,

The call to prayer is sounding across America. From Hamtramck, Michigan, to Paterson, New Jersey, to Minneapolis, Minnesota, rooftop amplifiers remind growing numbers of Muslim faithful five times a day of their duties with the Arabic message that "Allah is the Greatest! There is no god but Allah!"

The so-called "adhan" is just one sign of how Islam is transforming pockets of the nation. As more Muslims participate in the country's political life, running for office, influencing, and in some cases, even controlling local governments, they are putting their own stamps on their communities: renaming city streets after Arab homelands and mandating Islamic holidays and halal-only lunches in public schools, while even changing noise ordinances to the consternation of many non-Muslim neighbors.

Like Polish, German, Irish, and Italian immigrants before them, American Muslims now control several small cities. These include Hamtramck, which has an all-Muslim city council, as well as midsize cities like neighboring Dearborn. They are also wielding influence in large metropolises like New York City, where Mayor Zohran Mamdani's top staff is composed almost entirely of Muslims.

In one sense, this is just the continuation of the country's deep tradition of offering newcomers the opportunity to contribute their own customs to American society. But some critics say this iteration of the immigrant story offers a distinct challenge. A number of leading Muslim candidates for office, for example, are so opposed to America's longtime ally Israel that their rhetoric veers into antisemitism. And some, such as the Democratic Party candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, are being supported with campaign funds linked to Hamas front groups and the radical, pro-jihad Muslim Brotherhood, which federal authorities say has a secret plan for "destroying" America "from within."

El-Sayed won his primary with at least $315,000 in Muslim Brotherhood-tied funds, a RealClearInvestigations examination of Federal Election Commission filings reveals, and he hopes his harsh attacks on "evil" Israel will help him become the first Muslim to sit in the U.S. Senate. Other Muslim candidates have ties to groups that have officially been designated as terror organizations, including al-Qaeda. Adam Hisham Hamawy, the Democratic nominee running for New Jersey's 12th Congressional District, once maintained close ties to the late al-Qaeda "Blind Sheikh," who was convicted for his role in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, including acting as his translator, driver and defense witness.

Critics say electing Muslims to public office is freighted with other concerns. Many come from Islamic nations where corruption is the norm, and those ways have carried over to places like Hamtramck, where the majority of the city council is under active investigation for election fraud; and to Minneapolis, where Muslim lawmakers and the Muslim attorney general have been accused of protecting, even enabling, Somali immigrants who stole hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars from state and federal welfare agencies as part of a massive fraud ring, according to the Justice Department. The 2026 Directory of Elected Muslim Officials reports that there are currently 228 American Muslim elected officials serving across 26 states.

Critics also warn that, unlike mainstream modern Christianity, Islam does not distinguish between the spiritual and political realms. Sharia law, for example, applies to religious and civic life because they are one and the same in Islam.

Based on the Quran and other holy Islamic scripture, Sharia regulates Muslim worship, dress and diet. But it also sanctions practices at odds with not only American culture but also the U.S. legal system - including domestic violence, polygamy, female circumcision, forced child marriage, honor killings, and militant jihad.

European Warning Signs

Republican lawmakers and counterterrorism experts fear that as Muslims win control of towns and cities, they may weaken the nation's separation of church and state while creating the kind of dangerous "no-go" areas for non-Muslims that authorities now identify in some 900 enclaves of Europe with heavy concentrations of Muslim immigrants.

Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Portugal, and Switzerland are among EU members that have passed laws aimed at curbing radical Islam. The French Senate also passed a law in May aimed at countering "Islamist Infiltration" of the country following a 2025 government report, "Muslim Brotherhood and Political Islam in France," and a poll that year finding a majority of Muslims in France aged 15 to 24 prefer Sharia law over French law.

"Tolerating beachheads of radical Islam in our country is literally civilization suicide," said Missouri Rep. Bob Onder during a recent House Judiciary Committee hearing on the growing internal threat from Islam. "We're seeing in many cases a lack of assimilation [from Muslim immigrants]. They join these very closed groups that are committed to imposing Sharia law."

"Tolerating that seems to be utter insanity," Onder added, "especially if we see what's going on in Europe right now, what's going on in Germany, in London, in France."

Democrats and Muslim-rights groups counter that fears of Sharia creeping deeper into society are overblown and a symptom of "Islamophobia."

"Actually, it doesn't appear to be an issue anywhere in this country," countered Pennsylvania Rep. Mary Scanlon. "In my district, we have a growing cultural center, Africatown, founded by immigrants-turned-citizens, many of whom are Muslim and have made huge contributions to our economic, cultural, charitable and civic life."

"There's no evidence of any plot to impose Sharia law on non-believers of Islam," she added. "It's just not happening."

Yet Islamic teaching does urge believers to create a world where everyone submits to Allah. While Christian missionaries also proselytize even in Muslim countries, opinion surveys show that Muslims in America and around the world are far more committed to global conversion. An in-depth examination by RealClearInvestigations reveals that Muslim elected officials and spiritual leaders, backed by their own funds and foreign money, some tied to officially designated terror groups, are seeking to carve out their own societies within the United States. And while many Muslims are assimilating more traditional Western values, there is also a strong push to recreate communities based on the values and cultures of their former homelands.

Vision of the Future

One vision of the Muslim future in America is being carved out of 400 acres of Texas prairie land in an unincorporated area just outside Dallas. Islamic leaders there are planning to build their own "city" to serve as the "epicenter of Islam in North America," according to court papers filed by Texas' attorney general, who opposes the project.

The massive East Plano Islamic Center, which is known as EPIC City, has already featured several extremist clerics. One of its imams, Yasir Qadhi, has preached to the Muslim faithful that the Quran calls Jews and Christians "filthy" and condemns them to "hellfire," and that killing homosexuals and stoning adulterers is part of their religion. Qadhi chairs a powerful Sharia-ruling body, the Fiqh Council of North America, that guides the sermons and actions of clerics at America's estimated 3,500 mosques.

Qadhi is helping promote the development of EPIC City, which was recently rebranded "The Meadows" following local backlash over a promotional video that promised the community would bring "Islam to the forefront." In June, EPIC sponsored a "Muslims only" event at an indoor public water park in the Dallas area - owned by the local government and funded by taxpayers - that was canceled after public outcry over the flyer, which stated: "CLOSED TO THE PUBLIC - MUSLIM ONLY."

"Islam is on the march [and] no-go zones are building," warned Texas Republican Rep. Chip Roy, who co-founded the Sharia-Free America Caucus on Capitol Hill. "There are now no-go zones in the DFW (Dallas-Fort Worth) metroplex."

Qadhi and EPIC deny building a "no-go zone" and say they are just meeting demand for housing from Muslims in their flock. They point out that Texas is now home to hundreds of thousands of Muslim families, and they say their project is "still going full-speed ahead."

A similar Islamic compound, built by different developers, is under construction outside Houston. The "Sharia-compliant" Al-Huda Islamic Center in Katy, Texas, features a planned grand mosque, K-12 madrassas for "Quran memorization," an Islamic university, cricket fields, several apartment complexes, health clinics, and retail shopping centers with halal butchers on more than 30 acres of farmland. "The surrounding area will also be fully constructed to provide a safe place for a community of Muslims," Al-Huda reveals in a fundraising appeal to Muslim investors.

To accommodate the prayer needs of the growing ranks of Muslims in Texas, both Dallas and Houston airports have agreed to install Muslim foot-washing stations in bathrooms, although DFW is reconsidering its plans following public backlash.

Experts expect this so-called "Islamification" process to only grow as more Muslim refugees resettle in towns and cities across the U.S. - from the suburbs of northern Seattle, where thousands of Afghans are being relocated, to those in northern Virginia, the immigrant-rich backyard of America's capital. Estimates of the Muslim American population vary widely. The Pew Research Center estimates it at 3.5 million, while the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) puts it at 8 million. There is broad agreement, however, that Islam is by far the fastest-growing religion in the U.S. and around the world. As the recent events in Spain show, where 60,000 Muslim migrants stormed the border early this month, many followers of the faith clamor to come to the West.

They will certainly gain more power in the U.S. as Muslim leaders become active politically.

Financing Friendly Candidates

Islamic organizers are advancing a nationwide plan to back Muslim and other Islamic-friendly candidates with financing from a potential political war chest of more than $140 million a year in mosque and other donations from the swelling Muslim-American community.

Earlier this year, the Qadhi-led Fiqh Council of North America issued a legal ruling (fatwah) in coordination with the Assembly of Muslim Jurists of America that for the first time unlocks Muslim-American tithing and charitable giving, known as "zakat," for political use: "[G]iving one's zakat for influencing political causes is warranted." The stated goal is to, broadly, "empower" Muslim communities in America, but more specifically, to fund the campaigns of politicians who oppose Israel and support policies such as criminalizing criticism of the Prophet Muhammad and Islam in general.

Qadhi is sympathetic to such censorship: "For us Muslims, an infinitely more amount of respect should be shown to our religious symbols and especially to our prophet."

Efforts are already underway at the state level. In Virginia, which now boasts the fourth-highest Islamic population in the U.S., a Muslim Democrat has introduced a bill in the state senate to amend hate-crimes law to criminalize "prejudice toward Islam," not just Muslims. The bill, sponsored by state Sen. Saddam Azlan Salim, also mandates that state troopers track "Islamophobia" as a new bias-motivated offense category. At the same time, RCI has reported, hateful rhetoric castigating Christians, Jews, and others is common in American mosques.

Legal scholars say any such blasphemy law would likely be struck down as an unconstitutional violation of the First Amendment's free speech clause. Critics say this is lost on such Muslim activists, who use America's cornerstone civil rights - in this case, the freedom to practice religion - to advance their faith and its influence. In a 2023 talk to American Muslims, Qadhi exulted that they had a blessing most other Muslims lack: "A Constitution that protects our freedoms. We thank Allah for that freedom."

Also in the past year, Islamic activists have formed their own political super PACs, including one backing El-Sayed - Fighting for Michigan PAC - whose main contributor is a longtime leader in Muslim Brotherhood front groups in America blacklisted by the Justice Department as unindicted terrorist co-conspirators. Another is the Unity and Justice Fund, which Sharia watchdogs claim is part of a highly organized "electoral jihad" to change foreign U.S. policy and push Sharia-conforming laws.

The Unity and Justice Fund, which is aggressively raising money from mosques and Islamic groups to back Democrats in the November congressional election, is connected to the controversial Council on American-Islamic Relations. CAIR, the nation's largest Muslim-rights group, has a long-term plan to elect 30 Muslims to Congress, including at least two in the Senate. If he wins in November, El-Sayed would be the first Muslim senator. Currently, four Muslims serve in Congress, all Democrats. Surveys show Muslims vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

At the same time, CAIR says it is grooming more than 200 Muslims to run for state and local offices, as well. A "U.S. based Hamas front organization," according to former FBI agent Lara Burns, CAIR was critical in organizing financial support and getting out the vote for New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The group now has former employees represented in top posts inside his administration. CAIR denies connections to Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet in 2009, after the Justice Department named CAIR an unindicted co-conspirator in the largest terror fundraising case in U.S. history, a federal court found "ample evidence" linking CAIR to Hamas.

Robert Spencer, a senior fellow with the David Horowitz Freedom Center, recently testified in Congress that the ultimate goal of CAIR and other Hamas- and Muslim Brotherhood-tied groups is to turn America into an Islamic nation. "This is all about political power" and Islamic dominance, he maintained.

Quest for Dominance

According to an article in the Fremont Argus, a California newspaper, CAIR founder Omar Ahmad once told a Muslim audience: "Islam isn't in America to be equal to any other faith, but to become dominant. The Quran should be the highest authority in America, and Islam the only accepted religion on Earth." Ahmad, who Burns said was wiretapped in FBI Hamas probes in the 1990s, gave the speech at a 1998 event in Fremont, Calif., organized by the Islamic Study School titled, "How Should We As Muslims Live in America?"

Among other things in its "Muslim Policy Platform," CAIR is lobbying for a federal law banning "Islamophobia;" a federally designated Muslim heritage month; national Islamic holidays; special civil-rights protections for Muslims; an economic boycott of Israel and end to U.S. military and other aid to the longtime Mideast ally; protection of students to protest Israel on college campuses; increased aid to Gaza; special accommodations for incarcerated Muslims including terrorists - from the right to wear Islamic garb in prison to receiving free copies of the Quran, prayer mats and beads, and halal meals; the restoration of voting rights for released terrorist inmates; a ban on state voter ID laws and expansion of mail-in voting; a prohibition of local police aiding ICE in deportations; guaranteed permanent residency and citizenship for Afghan refugees; protected status for Palestinians seeking refuge in the U.S.; and the issuance of diversity visas for Muslim immigrants.

Despite the FBI cutting off formal outreach to CAIR over its alleged terror ties, the nonprofit has been receiving millions of dollars in state and federal grants to help resettle thousands of Afghan and other Muslim refugees in cities and towns throughout the U.S. The Trump administration has opened an investigation to ensure these taxpayer dollars haven't been funneled to terrorists, something CAIR strenuously denies, arguing the allocation of funds undergoes "rigorous" auditing. A number of Afghan refugees have carried out terrorist attacks or planned them in the homeland, including D.C., Virginia and Texas, since President Biden's 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, which led to a mass evacuation and resettlement of roughly 200,000 Afghan nationals here with minimal security screening. CAIR also provides free legal services to undocumented Muslim immigrants.

Thanks largely to mass immigration from Arab and other Muslim countries and high birth rates, Islam has become the fastest-growing faith in America - so much so that Muslim leaders are converting empty churches into mosques, which increasingly operate as nodes for political networking and activism. A 2020 survey revealed that 54% of U.S. mosques organized voter registration drives and 51% hosted politicians as speakers that election year. An overwhelming 95% of mosque leaders agree that Muslims should get involved in American politics.

Even reliably Republican Union County, N.C., birthplace of the late conservative Republican Sen. Jesse Helms, is getting its first mosque. So too is the GOP stronghold of DeSoto County, Miss., ending years of local resistance and litigation.

Many of these mosques are financed or owned through a trust controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, which has a secret plan to Islamize America, according to federal agents who discovered its U.S. manifesto in the basement of a terrorist safehouse they raided in a D.C. suburb after 9/11. DOJ designated the North American Islamic Trust, the largest custodian of mosques in the U.S., a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and an unindicted co-conspirator in a 2008 Hamas terror case. Appellate courts have since upheld the designation. And some of the co-conspirators remain top Hamas leaders today.

Rising Enclaves

"Across America, the Brotherhood is buying churches and converting them to mosques," said Amy Mekelburg, founder of RAIR Foundation USA, during a recent congressional hearing on the growing threat from Sharia law.

Some former FBI counterterrorism investigators point out that because mosques act as the hubs of Islamic enclaves - which include neighborhoods, religious schools (or "madrassas"), medical clinics, halal butchers, grocery stores, restaurants, and Sharia-compliant banks - the roots of 3,500 semiautonomous "exclusionary zones" have already potentially formed inside America. They say Muslim communities expand in a hub-and-spoke pattern out from the anchor mosque, grabbing more and more land and territory for Allah as they grow in numbers.

In Texas, said Rep. Roy, "We're seeing the massive expansion of mosques." He added that this growth has been aided by some 650 Islamic organizations in the state. "These organizations [are] buying up land." The number of mosques in Texas has doubled to more than 330 in just the past two decades.

It's not just Texas. In the nation's capital, within walking distance of Roy's office, Islamists are acquiring property, block by block. Through shell entities, terror-tied CAIR itself is quietly buying up land with foreign funding from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries.

For the past two decades, the Council on American-Islamic Relations has held property just three blocks from the U.S. Capitol where it operates its national headquarters and controls branches in more than 20 states. The deed to CAIR's national office on New Jersey Avenue is held in part by an Islamic trust DOJ says is controlled by the radical Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas - the North American Islamic Trust, which according to NAIT's website holds title to land in 42 states. NAIT describes itself as a custodian of "waqf properties established by Prophet Muhammad ... to serve Islamic objectives ... [and] for purposes that are Shariah compliant, including socio-economic, military or political purposes for the benefit of Muslims." Waqf properties, NAIT explains, "become restricted on a perpetual basis [and] must not be sold or inherited or given away."

And now, through a multilateral bank co-owned by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and Turkey, CAIR is financing the construction by a Muslim developer of "CAIR Plaza" on K Street, a 50-unit apartment complex with retail space catering to "underserved" immigrant Muslims near Union Station. The financier of the nearly $20 million project, the Islamic Development Bank, manages the Al-Quds and Al-Aqsa Funds, which provide financial support to Palestinian intifadas and payments to the families of Palestinian "martyrs," including suicide bombers.

Calls to Action

As much as they may want to take over parts of the country and implement Sharia law, however, Muslims living in the U.S. have to operate within the confines of the Constitution, which guarantees no foreign or religious legal system can override American laws and freedoms. And Muslims don't have the numbers to change federal law.

But the threat is more nuanced, Sharia watchdogs insist. They worry that as more Muslims are elected to public office, they will increasingly change local ordinances to adhere to Sharia mandates, as they have in the suburbs of Detroit; and even protect Muslims from prosecution for crimes, which has happened in Minneapolis.

In a recent speech, former National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard said that American Muslims are working to impose "Sharia law" and "Islamic principles" across the country by exploiting the democratic process, specifically citing the cities of Paterson, Dearborn, Minneapolis, and Houston.

"CAIR issued a call to action to use American legal and political systems to implement Sharia law. This is already under way in places," she said. "Paterson, N.J., is proud to call themselves the 'first Muslim city.' They [Muslim activists] are working to implement, in their own governments, these Islamic principles that are forced on people through the use of laws or violence."

Former FBI agent John Guandolo, who has investigated the radical influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in America, which he says controls the majority of Islamic organizations and mosques in the country, warns that Islamist leaders tied to the Brotherhood are increasingly emboldened and implementing a formula for Islamist political power from coast to coast. He contends American cities are following a pattern seen in the U.K., where Muslim immigrants essentially have taken over at least five whole cities, including Britain's two largest - London and Birmingham, where Sharia law is encroaching on Western law.

"England is gone. Conquered. Done," Guandolo said. "And we are next if we don't stop their advance."

He notes that London is now so sensitive to "Islamophobia" complaints from its burgeoning and increasingly dogmatic Muslim population that it prosecuted an atheist last year for burning the Quran while shouting, "Islam is a religion of terrorism." The judge who convicted the defendant scolded him for having "a deep-seated hatred of Islam."

Free speech advocates said the British government is enforcing a "de facto blasphemy law," whereby non-Muslims must now respect the blasphemy code of Muslims. They warned the case will have a "chilling effect" on legitimate criticism of Islam, especially in light of the fact that the court let off a Muslim who attacked the Quran burner with a knife to "protect my religion." Astoundingly, the Muslim man who took the "law" into his own hands by violently enforcing Islamic blasphemy code was spared any jail time.

Critics argue that even though free expression was met with violence, it was the expression that was punished, not the violence. They warn the judges' rulings flash a green light to other British Muslims who want to silence blasphemers with weapons.

Guandolo points to what's happening in Texas, where he's now based, as a good example of Islamification on this side of the Atlantic. He calls it "ground zero for Islamic conquest" in America, because of the number of separatist movements in the state bent on carving out parallel Islamic societies that he and other law enforcement officials worry will one day be outside the reach and control of local authorities. They explain that once these parallel Islamic societies are developed, it becomes difficult for local officials to enter and operate freely inside them.

Walid Phares, a Muslim Brotherhood expert who has advised the FBI and other agencies on the threat from Islamic jihad and Sharia law, agrees.

"We are letting Muslim Brotherhood jihadists set up an apartheid system inside America, a double society that will give them a dangerous foothold when they have the numbers to really push their broader jihadi agenda," Phares warned.

Muslim-rights groups counter that Muslim communities pose no threat to the U.S., and to say otherwise is just bigotry.

"There is no evidence that American Muslims are trying to impose religious law on the United States," said a CAIR spokesperson. "But there is clear evidence that some are using misinformation, racism, and anti-Muslim stereotypes to attack our communities."

Territorial Religion

Nonetheless, even many religious scholars point out that Islam is a uniquely territorial religion that seeks to bring all lands "under submission to Allah," not just through jihad but also through "hijrah," which is Arabic for emigration. The largest mosque in the D.C. area, where some of the 9/11 hijackers who attacked the Pentagon worshipped and received help, is even named with that in mind: Dar al-Hijrah Islamic Center, whose congregation is comprised largely of Palestinian immigrants.

Except for rural areas such as Lancaster County, S.C., where locals recently blocked the development of a mosque ("We do not want Sharia law in this area," said one protestor; "Islam is not a religion, it's a takeover," said another), mosque planners have met little resistance. According to the 2020 Mosque Survey prepared by the Center on Muslim Philanthropy, only one-third (35%) of mosques encountered "significant resistance" from their neighborhoods and zoning boards when they applied for permits to build, though the share was up slightly from the previous decade.

Meanwhile, Sharia arbitration councils tied to mosques are popping up in cities with large Muslim populations. These all-male Islamic tribunals sidestep family courts and handle legal issues internally, including domestic violence cases.

"Sharia councils are the camel's nose under the tent," said Guandolo, who now trains local sheriffs and police chiefs about the threat from Brotherhood-run mosques and Islamization. He said as Muslims gain control of city halls and police forces, the Sharia councils could act as shadow courts turning a blind eye to criminal activity, including terrorism. Guandolo pointed to recent terror attacks by Muslims in Virginia, New York, Austin, New Jersey, and Michigan.

Former federal counterterrorism analyst William Gawthrop calls the Islamic councils, which he says work jointly with mosques, "laboratories of self-governance."

"We've seen it in Europe," said retired Plano (Texas) Police Lt. Doug Deaton, who has investigated what he calls the "extremist" East Plano Islamic Center masterminding the development of the nearby 402-acre EPIC city. "And now we are absolutely seeing the same pattern of intent and behavior in the United States."

This is part of a series of articles by RCI on the Rise of Islam. The series so far:

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 08:10

Turkey Issues Arrest Warrant For Netanyahu, Seeks Interpol Red Notice

Zero Hedge -

Turkey Issues Arrest Warrant For Netanyahu, Seeks Interpol Red Notice

Turkey has escalated its anti-Israel actions, after months of denunciations connected to its Gaza, Syria, and Iran policies - and is once again taking things to new levels.

The Erdogan government has just issued an international arrest warrant for Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as part of an investigation into Israel's interception of an aid flotilla for Gaza, which happened in mid-May and involved over 50 vessels and nearly 500 international activists.

AFP/Getty Images

Justice Minister Akin Gurlek announced Friday on X that Netanyahu and another top official are wanted for "genocide" related to military actions in Gaza.

"We categorically reject the notion that the Netanyahu administration, which is implementing a genocide policy in Gaza, is untouchable and unaccountable," Gurlek said.

"We will not allow the crimes committed in Gaza to be covered up or the perpetrators to be shielded by impunity. We will resolutely utilize all possibilities of national and international law," the Justice Minister added.

 Gurlek vowed that Turkey will continue to support the Palestinian people and won't halt its pursuit of justice until "those who commit crimes against humanity are held accountable before the law."

Israeli official Afek Moskovitch has also been named as part of the anti-flotilla crackdown, which Ankara says was a severe violation of international law and maritime norms. Turkey has asked Interpol to issue red notices for the Israeli officials' arrest.

Israeli media has picked up on the provocation from Turkey, and details the following:

Gurlek said arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Moskovitch were issued on July 14 on a genocide charge, prompting the Justice Ministry to ask the Interior Ministry to pursue the Interpol notices. The case before Istanbul's 11th High Criminal Court names 35 defendants.

The proceedings concern the interception of activists seeking to deliver aid to Gaza and their subsequent detention. Gurlek said the charges include crimes against humanity, genocide, unlawful deprivation of liberty, torture, intentional injury, property damage, aggravated robbery and hijacking.

This is not the first time that Turkey has issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu. It did so in 2025 related to supporting the International Criminal Court (ICC) case targeting Israeli leaders.

Given years of ratcheting tensions between the two countries, it remains extremely unlikely that Israeli leaders would ever travel to Turkey anyway, but this will continue to also cause problems and create pressures for regular Israeli tourists.

This past week, Israel attacked a northern airbase in Syria, and reports speculate that it was really about pushing back Turkish military forces, and to ensure that no Turkish foothold could be established there. The destroyed base is in Idlib province, and is believed to have been abandoned since Assad's overthrow.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 07:35

Spanish Beach Stormed As Ceuta Chaos Spreads

Zero Hedge -

Spanish Beach Stormed As Ceuta Chaos Spreads

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Dozens of military-age men leapt from boats onto packed tourist beaches in mainland Spain this week, sending holidaymakers scrambling for their belongings as the fallout from the Ceuta mass crossing continues to escalate.

Footage from Cala del Barco near the exclusive La Manga Club in Cartagena captured the moment a large vessel packed with predominantly North African males in their late teens and twenties powered close to shore in broad daylight.

The men jumped into the water, waded or swam the final metres, and charged inland past stunned sunbathers.

Families packed towels and umbrellas and fled.

One woman was overheard saying "It's a f*****g patera" before urging companions to collect their things and call the police.

Local officials did not hide their anger. Cartagena mayor Noelia Arroyo stated: "This cannot be normalised. We cannot accept that human trafficking mafias have such an easy time reaching our shores."

"If a migrant boat can reach a cove like this, disembark in full view of citizens and then leave, we have to ask ourselves how the control of our maritime borders is working," Arroyo further urged.

Former mayor Francisco Bernabe asked: "How is it possible that a boat of that size was not detected by the surveillance radar? Are they broken? Do they have them turned off? Or are they working and they simply ignore them?"

Authorities later reported 62 people aboard, including 45 adult men, two adult women and 15 minors, mostly of presumed Algerian nationality.

Police and Red Cross responded after the vessel had already turned and left.

The landings come weeks after more than 70,000 people poured into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta from Morocco. While officials claimed the majority returned, thousands remained, and the spectacle of open landings on mainland tourist beaches has left many Spaniards convinced the message of impunity has spread.

In Ceuta itself the situation remains dire. Spanish police relocated hundreds of mostly young male migrants from El Trampolín beach to temporary facilities in industrial and military zones.

Makeshift tent camps were erected even as the government had previously insisted those who entered irregularly would be returned to Morocco.

However, within hours the same beach was reoccupied. Videos show migrants returning almost immediately after clearance operations.

Police unions described a daily cycle of clear, transfer, and reoccupation with no end in sight.

One union statement noted officers were forced to repeat the same operation day after day while those responsible for a lasting solution remained silent.

Cleanup crews finally returned to the beach after earlier efforts were suspended over security concerns. The sand and surrounding areas had become littered with waste after weeks of open camping. Yet as soon as authorities cleared sections, new groups moved back in.

Hospitals and health centres in Ceuta have reported rising cases of scabies, measles, impetigo and ringworm. Police and military personnel assigned to the operation have also contracted scabies.

Spain's Defence Ministry confirmed 24 cases among troops but insisted the infections were unrelated to the migrant influx, attributing them instead to humidity and substandard barracks conditions. Officials described scabies as common in the region.

Doctors on the ground have painted a different picture. Medical staff have spoken of a "health catastrophe," with hospitals overrun, medicine running short, and cases of tuberculosis, scabies, impetigo and gastroenteritis linked to the overcrowded beach settlements and lack of sanitation.

One doctor noted that Ceuta had "basically turned into a full-on slum" with thousands living in rough shacks on the sand.

Playgrounds that once hosted local children have been taken over. Footage shows groups of young men lingering in the same spaces where mothers previously brought their kids.

Reports from animal caregivers describe cat colonies vanishing, with mutilated carcasses and half-eaten birds found near the camps. Volunteers stated cats had left their habitats once the large numbers of arrivals settled in the area.

Schools have not been spared. Just weeks before the start of the academic year, migrants occupied and damaged at least one educational building in Ceuta.

Videos circulating from the site show the state of the facilities left behind, prompting calls for full disinfection before any children return.

Police have reported a more serious threat involving minors. Officials stated that hundreds of underage migrants need to be moved because girls are being dragged into the surrounding mountains for gang rapes.

Civil Guard figures earlier confirmed multiple sexual assaults since the July crossings, including cases involving very young victims.

Local mothers have appeared on camera weeping, describing how their teenage daughters can no longer move freely without male escorts and how some families have already fled the city or sent children to the mainland.

Spain is now subjected to landings on the mainland, revolving-door clearances in Ceuta, disease among both residents and security forces, public spaces rendered unusable, and a growing sense among locals that the authorities have lost control of the border.

While government statements continue to emphasise returns and temporary measures, the images from both the tourist coves of Murcia and the beaches of Ceuta tell a different story - one of emboldened crossings and a crisis that has moved from the African enclave onto the Spanish peninsula itself.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 07:00

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The box that built globalisation: Containers have transformed ports, cities and trade. Now the revolution is reaching a limit. Alice Hancock on how shipping containers transformed ports, cities and trade — and why the revolution is now reaching a limit. (Financial Times free)

Anthropic’s ‘First Lady’ Took a Winding Road to the Top: Before Cami Clark became a quiet key counselor to her husband, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, she founded her own startups and crossed paths with Jeffrey Epstein. Cory Weinberg on the ascent. (The Information) see also Even Claude Is in the Dark About Dario Amodei’s Wife—and Her Influence at Anthropic: Cami Clark—who started what she called a ‘revolutionary porn company’ where she sought investment from Jeffrey Epstein—keeps a low profile but is a key adviser to the AI chief. Its coming IPO could top trillions. She is a key strategic adviser and sounding board for the AI chief. She introduced Amodei to former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who became an early investor in Anthropic’s $124 million Series A round. (Wall Street Journal)

The smorgasbord in the age of Ozempic: In buffets and Ozempic menus, sampling menus and share plates, the same hope emerges: to circumvent satiety. But so too do the same anxieties, the same guilts and thrills, the same moralizing tensions between seeking pleasure and wielding self-restraint. Thea Applebaum Licht on the smorgasbord in the age of Ozempic. (Cabinet Magazine)

The Brains Who Powered China’s Surprising AI Leap: University lab nurtured the computer scientists who are using ingenuity and imitation to chase down Anthropic and OpenAI; ‘they know perfectly how to monetize their work.’ How Chinese AI startups are closing the capability gap with OpenAI and Anthropic through a mix of ingenuity, state support, open-source sharing and distilling from U.S. models — despite restricted access to advanced chips. (Wall Street Journal)

To Get Better At Investing, Start By Getting Better At Being Wrong: How Not To Invest explains why avoiding bad forecasts, misleading numbers, emotional decisions, and unnecessary risk might be the smartest path to long-term wealth. (Finimize)

The Great American AI Rebellion: America hates data centers. That’s going to be a problem for AI. Derek Thompson on stacking facts rather than conjuring grand theories — writing down what you know is true, lining the dominoes up, and letting the pattern show itself. Twenty minutes on why Americans really hate data centers. (Most of AI’s builders are clueless about why). (Derek Thompson)

The Animator Who Inspired Cartoon Network:  “UPA was a huge deal for us.” You saw its influence in Dexter’s Lab, Powerpuff Girls and more. UPA had been the studio to beat during the ‘50s: its flat, modern style swept mid-century animation. That style returned on Cartoon Network. One exec called the look “UPA revival.”1 But UPA’s design was only one element borrowed by these later shows. Just as critical was the animation — that is, the way this stuff moved. And one particular UPA animator had an outsize impact on Cartoon Network. His name was Robert Cannon. Although he didn’t live to see the UPA revival projects, his ideas were all over them. “One of my favorite animators.” Animation Obsessive on the artist whose style became a network’s DNA — the influence hiding in every 90s kid’s visual memory. (Animation Obsessive)

The End of the American Middle East Iran and the Last Gasp of a Failed Order: The years ahead promise further discord. Israel and Iran have a shared interest in keeping the Middle East in a state of lawlessness and violence, and the United States has few means of holding back either of them. Israel hopes to expand its de facto borders, including by annexing as much as possible of historic Palestine, and to impose its writ by force across vast swaths of the region. And assuming that the Iranian regime does not collapse any time soon—which it appears highly unlikely to do—an emboldened Tehran will hope to defend and expand its regional influence by bogging Washington down in the kinds of endless, borderless “gray zone” conflicts in which it has always thrived. (Foreign Affairs)

• Marc Jacobs Reveals What Comes Next for His Brand: José Criales-Unzueta sits down in the SoHo showroom with a designer who opens by declaring, “All I’ve ever been is a fashion victim” — and then clarifies that he does not mean it as a bad thing. In his four decades in fashion, Jacobs has weathered personal storms and professional crises, coming back stronger each time. In a revealing interview, the great American designer holds forth on his LVMH sale, past scandals, and exactly—or maybe not so exactly—what his next chapter will mean for his runway collections. (Vanity Fair)

I coached Roger Federer and Pete Sampras. This is what made them different.  It was exactly what he told me the previous year. You have to be able to manage the highs and the lows, because you know they’re going to come. I think Roger was the maestro at that.  Paul Annacone, who had Sampras from 1995 to 2002 and Federer from 2010 to 2013, on what separated two players at the top of the same sport. (The Athletic free)

Video of the day: Why Taylor Swift Caused an Economic Boom… And FIFA Didn’t…

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Alex Morris of TSOH Investment Research. He is the author of “Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meetings.” The book was named one of Amazon’s “Best Books of 2025.” To write it, he reviewed every Berkshire annual meeting from 1994 through 2024 — 100s of hours of video covering more than 1,700 shareholder questions over 31 years — after Berkshire released the meeting archives.

 

Current Covid Epidemic Trends (Based on Rt)

Source: CDC

 

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What JPMorgan Saw Inside Tesla's Fremont Factory As Humanoid Production Nears

Zero Hedge -

What JPMorgan Saw Inside Tesla's Fremont Factory As Humanoid Production Nears

Retail flows across Asia remained heavily concentrated in newly listed, high-beta names, most notably Chinese robotics maker Unitree following its blockbuster Shanghai debut. The retail craze surrounding physical AI merely shows Beijing's accelerating push to dominate the humanoid market.

To close out the week, we pivot across the Pacific for a peek inside the US humanoid-robotics supply chain, where Tesla's Fremont buildout provides a timely indicator of how quickly physical AI is advancing.

Rajat Gupta, a JPMorgan analyst who covers Tesla, recently toured Tesla's Fremont factory and reported to clients this week that the facility, once the birthplace of the company's electric vehicles, is now pivoting toward producing robotaxis and humanoid robots.

Gupta and his colleagues toured the roughly 5-million-square-foot facility and found that the discontinued Model S and Model X production lines are being replaced by manufacturing equipment for Tesla's Optimus humanoid.

"On Optimus, production lines are being installed at Fremont (the area was tarped off at the time of our visit), and TSLA remains largely on schedule for the targeted four-month transition following the end of S/X production in May, with initial humanoid deployments in 2H26 expected to focus on Optimus Academy for training and data collection, followed by internal factory use and external sales as early as 2H27," the analyst said.

He said that Optimus robots are not currently working inside the Fremont plant. Initial deployments in the second half of 2026 will instead take place at the "Optimus Academy," where the robots will collect real-world training data before being deployed in factories.

"Overall, we came away from the factory tour with greater conviction in the robotaxi fleet ramp through late 2026 and early 2027, as well as an Optimus SoP that remains largely aligned with previously communicated timelines, both of which are central to the long-term thesis, while near-term commentary on demand drivers and FSD uptake remains constructive," the analyst said.

Here are Gupta's top takeaways from walking the Fremont factory floor:

Facility details. TSLA's Fremont facility serves as the company's primary test bed for innovation, supporting the launch of both new vehicles and humanoids across its expansive roughly 5-million-square-foot footprint. The plant manufactures premium Model Y variants and performance and premium Model 3 variants, while the recently decommissioned S/X lines, retired in early May, are being replaced by Optimus production lines. The factory showcases the breadth of TSLA's automation capabilities, featuring numerous custom-built robots and proprietary software designed to enhance manufacturing speed and precision. Production continues under several modernized tents, originally erected during the Model 3 "production hell" days, which remain integral to the facility's operations. During our visit, we observed gigapress machines, stamping operations and general assembly lines and participated in FSD demonstrations involving the Model Y L variant and the Cybertruck.

Giga casting and stamping. TSLA's innovative giga-casting process, first introduced with the Model Y, consolidates 70 underbody components that would otherwise require welding, significantly streamlining production. This approach reduces the number of robots needed on the welding line. The Model Y utilizes roughly 300 robots, compared with approximately 1,000 for the Model 3. TSLA also attributes this advancement to its materials-science expertise, including the development of a custom aluminum alloy, a capability enhanced through its collaboration with SpaceX. For stamping, TSLA employs Schuler presses with six progressive, interchangeable dies. TSLA stamps roughly 10 visible vehicle components in-house, while hundreds of remaining stamped parts are sourced from suppliers.

Unboxed manufacturing. TSLA emphasized that Cybercab production leverages an unboxed manufacturing process in which large subassemblies are built independently and in parallel, then joined together during the final stage. This approach allows open access from all angles, enabling simultaneous installation and streamlining the overall assembly process.

FSD demos. We participated in FSD demonstrations involving the Model Y L and Cybertruck, with the team walking us through the various modes, ranging from Sloth to Mad Max. The vehicles demonstrated notable driving accuracy, including navigating through a construction zone without manual intervention. The Autopark function worked seamlessly as well.

The Cybercab ramp-up is closely tied to the FSD v15 rollout. Management expressed optimism about the trajectory and pace of the Cybercab production ramp, highlighting that technology validation and production through unboxed manufacturing are advancing in parallel. The fleet deployment timeline will be largely dictated by the upcoming FSD v15 launch later this year. TSLA indicated that it is intentionally holding back on adding Model Y units to the robotaxi fleet, reflecting confidence in its ability to scale the Cybercab fleet in the near term. TSLA views FSD v15 as a step change in performance, comparable to the leap from v13 to v14, which produced a significant increase in parameter count, a larger context window and a roughly 20% reduction in latency. The v15 upgrade encompasses seven core technologies, approximately 40% of which are currently being tested in the robotaxi fleet, where initial feedback has been encouraging. TSLA continues to focus on minimizing regression in core driving functions as it introduces new capabilities, and FSD v15 is viewed as the primary gateway to scaling unsupervised FSD. While the current AI/HW4 stack can run v15 and support unsupervised FSD, TSLA's AI4.5 compute system is designed to accommodate rising compute and memory demands as robotaxi models scale and context windows expand. The system offers roughly 10% more FLOPS and twice the memory.

Robotaxi unit economics remain compelling with the Model 3 and Model Y, although Cybercab is designed to broaden the TAM beyond traditional ridesharing. TSLA highlighted that current robotaxi economics are attractive, with the Model Y and Model 3 carrying total ownership costs of roughly $0.60 to $0.70 per mile at average personal-vehicle utilization rates. Those costs fall to approximately $0.50 to $0.60 per mile at utilization rates four to five times higher, as is typical for robotaxis. That remains well below the roughly $2.50 to $3 per mile charged by incumbent rideshare operators. However, TSLA's vision for robotaxis extends beyond the traditional rideshare segment, which represents only a low-single-digit percentage of the overall mobility market, and calls for a purpose-built robotaxi platform capable of driving total ownership costs down to approximately $0.30 per mile. Management also reiterated that Cybercab is only the initial form factor, with additional vehicle types expected to follow as the platform evolves, citing the Robovan demonstration from the October 10 event as an example.

Optimus is on track for SoP in the coming months, with commercial sales expected as early as 2H27. While we did not have the opportunity to view the Optimus production lines currently being installed following the S/X decommissioning, TSLA indicated that it remains largely on schedule with its roughly four-month transition target after S/X production ended in May 2026. No Optimus robots have been deployed at the Fremont factory yet, although management highlighted that stamping and body-in-white operations are likely to benefit most in the near term, given the repetitive and hazardous nature of those tasks. In contrast, the general assembly line still requires human dexterity and is expected to be a longer-dated application for humanoids. The initial rollout plan calls for Optimus robots to be deployed at the Optimus Academy in 2H26, where the humanoids will learn by interacting with real-world environments, accelerating TSLA's data-collection flywheel. Following this phase, humanoids will be deployed internally at TSLA factories for further data collection and to minimize third-party data complexities, with commercial sales to external customers anticipated as early as 2H27. TSLA is aligning humanoid data collection with its FSD methodology and is committed to retaining data ownership internally, rather than relying on third-party datasets, to preserve its long-term differentiation. Separately, TSLA noted that compute capacity increased roughly twofold year over year in 1H26. The finalization of the design, although aesthetics remain a work in progress, represents a key milestone for Optimus and signals the company's commitment to scaling volumes over the longer term. TSLA is targeting roughly 1 million units at Fremont, with a longer-term goal of approximately 10 million units at Giga Texas. The Gen 3 unveiling will be timed closer to SoP to protect the company's competitive advantage, while the scope of Gen 4, including its capabilities, cost and scalability, will be informed by Gen 3's field experience.

The demand rebound is attributed to FSD and model-lineup refreshes. Excluding any potential uplift in EV demand from higher gasoline prices tied to the Middle East conflict, which management teams at publicly traded franchised dealers indicated has not materially affected BEV demand, TSLA attributes the recent acceleration in unit volumes to progress on FSD and a refreshed model lineup. Second-quarter 2026 unit sales increased 25% year over year and 34% sequentially, marking the largest quarter-over-quarter increase since 2019. The introduction of new base variants, alongside the Model Y L and updated performance models, has broadened TSLA's offering, enabling the company to address a wider range of use cases and price points. TSLA has made FSD the centerpiece of its product portfolio, leveraging improved functionality to generate additional customer interest. Management noted a growing trend of customers visiting showrooms specifically to learn about FSD. This sales momentum is also evident internationally, with markets such as Australia and South Korea, as well as early results from Europe, showing a step change in demand following the FSD rollout.

Europe FSD approval update. TSLA is pursuing a dual-track strategy for FSD approval in Europe, engaging directly with the EU, where the approval timeline has been repeatedly delayed and is now expected in October, while simultaneously working with individual countries such as the Netherlands, whose regulatory frameworks can be adopted by other EU member states. Early driving data from Europe show promising safety metrics, including roughly five times fewer collisions across approximately 65 million kilometers of FSD driving, which management believes is gradually increasing regulatory momentum. Once approved, activation in European markets is expected to occur relatively quickly, measured in weeks rather than months or quarters.

FSD pricing remains iterative over the near to medium term, although it represents a significant long-term opportunity. TSLA explained that the transition from upfront FSD purchases to a subscription-only model is designed to maintain flexibility and capture the increasing value of continued improvements in functionality. In the near term, management is prioritizing vehicle activations and FSD usage, especially because roughly 50% of TSLA owners historically have not tried FSD and a substantial cohort of customers who previously accessed older versions have not activated new subscriptions. TSLA continues to see strong customer retention once drivers experience the technology, supporting its one-month free trial for all new customers and the decision to maintain pricing at approximately $99 per month.

Automotive gross margins. TSLA noted that it has made targeted pricing adjustments to certain Model Y variants and a broader group of Model 3 variants globally to offset commodity-cost headwinds. Changes to interest-rate subsidies should also alleviate some pressure on gross margins. Management noted that first- and second-quarter 2026 gross margins were modestly affected by the shift toward subscription-based FSD monetization, as upfront FSD purchases ended in the US and Canada in February 2026 and will be phased out elsewhere by August 2026. The ramp-up of cathode and anode production, which began in January 2026, is expected to contribute gradually to cost-of-goods-sold efficiencies. It typically takes 18 months for a plant to reach an appropriate level of scale and utilization, although the magnitude of the savings may be difficult to isolate given several other moving parts. More broadly, TSLA emphasized that its operating philosophy remains focused on expanding the top line and leveraging significant production capacity, with a target of up to 3 million units compared with JPMorgan's estimate of approximately 1.8 million deliveries in 2026.

Tesla's humanoid pivot is not an immediate commercial story, but it could become one in the second half of 2027 as series production scales and external sales begin. The emerging robotics race between the West and China is increasingly centered on Tesla and Unitree, with both companies preparing to ramp factory output and commercial deliveries over the next year.

Tesla shares still locked in a bear market.  

The West does, however, have a supply-chain problem. China controls significant portions of the supply chains for components required to manufacture humanoids, including rare-earth materials, permanent magnets, actuators, electric motors and optics. Tesla may lead the Western commercialization effort, but without secure domestic or allied sources for these critical components, the US risks building its humanoid-robotics industry on a supply chain that Beijing can restrict, as currently seen across critical materials ranging from tungsten to germanium (read the report here).

Professional subscribers can read more about humanoids and delivery dates here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 05:00

Socialist Leader Says Quiet Part Out Loud: Affordability Pitch Masks "Guerrilla Class War" To "Bleed Enemy Dry"

Zero Hedge -

Socialist Leader Says Quiet Part Out Loud: Affordability Pitch Masks "Guerrilla Class War" To "Bleed Enemy Dry"

We have extensively profiled how communism is on the rise in America and how the Democratic Party has served as its primary vehicle into mainstream electoral politics. The Marxists in the Democratic Socialists of America have a platform that, in the long run, has very little to do with affordability but everything to do with what some of their leaders have described, in their own words, as "destroying the nation from within."

DSA members are hell-bent on breaking down capitalism and the current form of the United States as we know it. One of their tactics is to ignite a Marxist class war, or class struggle, which is a conflict between economic classes over wealth, political power and control of production.

The idea that DSA is seeking to start a Marxist class war is not based on speculation but is, yet again, part of the plan to destroy capitalism, according to DSA National Political Committee member Cliff Connolly.

Connolly has not been shy about what DSA has planned in its effort to defeat capitalism. In a recent video interview shared by X user Canary Mission, he said: "The class war is a guerrilla war. This strategy is not focused on winning individual battles, but using them to advance our position slowly and surely until our enemy is bled dry."

To better understand DSA, we recently published a five-tiered "rainbow cake" mapping out the modern left, which places the organization on the far left, within the reformist-socialist cohort.

Meanwhile, the unofficial spokesman for DSA, Hasan Piker, has called on his followers to "kill capitalist"...

Piker has stated, "We want more immigrants to come into your countries and then they're gonna f**k your sisters and then your daughters. We're here to destroy the White Race, Bitch."

Piker is a special breed of Marxist who is part of what the White House calls the "Red-Green Alliance."

Piker: "Overall, my favorite flag is Hezbollah."

Recently, DSA Co-Chair Megan Romer confirmed her party's radical agenda:

  • Abolishing the Senate, presidency, and Supreme Court
  • Abolishing ICE, borders and prisons
  • Defunding the Pentagon
  • Mass amnesty for illegals

This is all related: 

It's coming ...

As we explained last week, citing Andy Laperriere, Piper Sandler's head of US policy research in Washington, younger Americans have no lived memory of Soviet breadlines or the refugee waves produced by failed communist states. That gap has made it easier to repackage far-left ideology without confronting its record.

Such as:

A major counterpoint is now unfolding across South America, where voters in several countries are rejecting socialist and far-left governments following years of inflation, economic stagnation and violent crime. Migration is driven by multiple factors, but the exodus from Venezuela and other countries demonstrates how economic collapse under socialist rule has forced millions to seek stability in the US. That is the lived memory missing from the American debate, and it deserves far greater attention (read here). 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 04:00

Who Really Drives Global Terrorism? Internal US Govt Data Offers A Surprising Answer

Zero Hedge -

Who Really Drives Global Terrorism? Internal US Govt Data Offers A Surprising Answer

Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com

Every administration reaches for the same line. Iran, we are told, is the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorisma claim now central to the case for war. It carries the weight of an official designation: Iran has sat on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism since January 19, 1984, the longest-running designation currently on the books, alongside Cuba, North Korea, and Syria. The supporting figures get repeated as settled fact — more than a billion dollars a year in terror financing, and somewhere between 140,000 and 185,000 IRGC-Quds Force partner fighters spread across Afghanistan, Gaza, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen.

The problem is that the government's own record doesn't back the headline. The place to test the claim is the data the State Department itself publishes — the statistical annex to Country Reports on Terrorism, and before it Patterns of Global Terrorism, the congressionally mandated series that has catalogued international terrorist incidents year by year since 1990. When you actually read those tables, a different picture emerges from the one sold on cable news.

Who commits the attacks

The annex doesn’t sort attacks by sect, but it doesn’t need to. The identity of the top perpetrator groups tells the story on its own. Year after year across 2004–2023, the most active and lethal groups are Sunni: the Taliban, ISIS, Boko Haram, al-Qaeda and its affiliates, al-Shabaab, the TTP. On the order of nine in ten attacks in the reporting trace back to Sunni extremist actors operating out of the Salafi-jihadist tradition. None of them answer to Tehran. Most regard Shia Muslims — Iran very much included — as heretics, and target them accordingly. ISIS has spent years at open war with Iran and its allies.

A separate French dataset, compiled by FONDAPOL over a longer 1979–April 2024 window, lands in the same place. The five deadliest Islamist groups over that period account for better than 80 percent of all victims of Islamist terrorism — and every one of the five is Sunni: the Taliban, ISIS, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and al-Qaeda.

Where are the Iran-linked groups in all this? Largely absent from the top of the tables. Hezbollah and the Iran-aligned militias tend not to appear, in part because their operations are directed mainly at military forces rather than civilians, which places them outside the working definition of terrorism the reports use. The Houthis are the main Shia-linked group to surface in recent editions, and only as a small share of the total.

It is only in 2023 that three groups in Iran’s orbit — the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah — break into the top ten at all. They do so because of their attacks on Israel, and those attacks were aimed primarily at military targets. Before 2023, neither Hamas nor Hezbollah ranked among the groups responsible for the most attacks worldwide. That is a remarkable fact for two organizations routinely described as among the planet’s most prolific terrorists.

The Israeli numbers

Take the definition of terrorism that Benjamin Netanyahu himself uses — violence against civilians for political ends — and apply it to Israel’s own government data, drawn from the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s record of victims of Palestinian violence covering 2000 through April 2024. (That dataset predates and excludes the October 7, 2023 attack.)

Two things stand out. First, Palestinian attacks have trended downward since 2003. The peak sits in the 2000–2005 window — the Second Intifada. Across the full 24 years, 1,552 Israelis were killed and 5,595 wounded, and the violence is heavily concentrated in that early-2000s spike: roughly 76 percent of the deaths and 92 percent of the wounded fall within the Second Intifada years. Second, Hamas is not the terrorist engine the public imagination makes it out to be. Only about 15 percent of attacks over the 24-year span are attributed to Hamas, acting alone or with another faction. None of this makes Hamas a peace movement — it isn’t — but it is not an organization waging ceaseless slaughter either.

The rocket fire is the clearest case of rhetoric outrunning arithmetic. Hamas and Hezbollah have launched thousands of rockets at Israel over 25 years. The death toll specifically from those rockets across 2001–2025 is on the order of 50 to 75 people — not the “thousands” the coverage implies. The gap between the two numbers is the whole point.

Set against this is the asymmetry no honest accounting can skip. Israel killed an estimated 11,200–11,500 Palestinians between 2000 and October 6, 2023. Since October 7, the figure in Gaza has climbed past 73,000 by the Gaza Health Ministry’s count — a number an Israeli military official effectively conceded in January 2026, accepting more than 71,000 killed by direct Israeli fire.

Who actually funds the perpetrators

If the metric is real, it points somewhere other than Tehran. The Sunni groups that dominate the casualty tables have drawn financial support from the Gulf Arab states — and, more awkwardly, from the United States itself.

The paper trail runs through Syria: US and allied money reaching outfits spun off from ISIS, including the al-Nusra lineage that produced Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, whose leader Washington once had a $10 million bounty on before quietly retiring it. The same government that brands Iran the foremost sponsor of terrorism has, at various points, been a facilitator of the very groups doing the most killing.

The bottom line

The designation is doing political work, not analytical work. Iran is not, by the government’s own incident data, the major driver of global terrorism; the perpetrators overwhelmingly belong to a Sunni jihadist current that is hostile to Iran and financed from elsewhere.

A serious campaign against the sponsors of terrorism would start with the Gulf states, not with Tehran. Instead, a charge the data won’t support is being used as the pretext for an unprovoked war. A country living in a glass house should think twice before throwing rocks.

Anticipated objections — and the answers

“But Hamas and Hezbollah entered the top ten in 2023, so Iran’s proxies are major terrorists.” They entered in a single year, and only because of a war with Israel in which their fire was directed mainly at military targets — soldiers, bases, the IDF in the field. The State Department’s own definition turns on violence against civilians for political ends. A spike driven by attacks on an army during an active war is not evidence of sustained civilian-directed terrorism; it’s evidence of a shooting war. For the two prior decades of the reporting, neither group cracked the list of the world’s most active perpetrators. One year inside the top ten, produced by combat with a state military, does not overturn twenty outside it.

“You’re leaning on data that excludes October 7, 2023 — the deadliest single day in the whole record.” The exclusion is stated plainly, not smuggled: the Israeli Foreign Ministry dataset runs through the period before that attack, and October 7 is the largest single event on the Israeli side of the ledger. Grant it in full. It changes the total for one day; it does not change the structure of the twenty-year record, in which Palestinian violence trends downward after 2003 and Hamas accounts for roughly 15 percent of attacks. Nor does a single mass-casualty event convert Iran into the foremost global sponsor of terrorism, when the groups filling the casualty tables every other year — ISIS, the Taliban, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab — remain Sunni, anti-Shia, and unconnected to Tehran. October 7 is a real and terrible data point. It is not the trend, and it is not the sponsorship question.

“Body counts don’t measure sponsorship — the designation is about the support a state provides, not how many its proxies kill.” This is the fairest objection, and it’s worth meeting directly rather than dodging. Concede the distinction: state sponsorship is measured by money, weapons, and training, not by proxy casualty totals. But the “foremost sponsor” claim is almost never used that narrowly in practice. It is deployed to characterize the threat — to argue that Iran is the principal engine of the terrorism Americans should fear. Measured against the actual distribution of terrorist violence, that characterization collapses: the threat is overwhelmingly Sunni jihadist. And on the sponsorship axis itself, the framework is applied selectively. The Gulf states that financed Sunni networks, and the U.S. and allied money that reached groups spun off from ISIS in Syria, never draw the “number one sponsor” label. A designation that is consistent only when it points at Iran is a political instrument, not an analytical finding.

“Calling Hezbollah’s targets ‘primarily military’ whitewashes real atrocities.” The claim is about the pattern the reporting captures, not a denial that Hezbollah has ever killed civilians — it plainly has, from the 1980s bombings to attacks abroad. The point stands at the level of the aggregate data: across the reporting period, the group’s operations register mainly against military forces, which is precisely why it sits outside the top perpetrator tables that are built on civilian-directed attacks. Acknowledging the exceptions doesn’t move the aggregate.

*  *  *

Sources: U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism (statistical annex, 2004–2023) and Patterns of Global Terrorism; FONDAPOL, dataset on Islamist terrorism 1979–2024; Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, victims of Palestinian violence and terrorism 2000–2024; Gaza Health Ministry casualty figures. I have synthesized this from my previously published Sonar21 essays.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 23:25

"Fibermaxxing" Craze Forces Big Food Into Reformulation Cycle

Zero Hedge -

"Fibermaxxing" Craze Forces Big Food Into Reformulation Cycle

BNP Paribas analysts say Gen Z's growing awareness of healthy, high-protein, high-fiber diets is accelerating a reformulation cycle across the Big Food industrial complex, as manufacturers race to make products more appealing to the youth and those on GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. 

In a report titled "Fiber Is the New Protein,” BNP analyst Joan Lim said the protein craze ignited by GLP-1 adoption has been coined "fibermaxxing," as younger consumers seek food products promising satiety, digestive health and weight-management benefits.

Consumer research firm Nielsen shows protein-rich categories have seen stronger volumes versus junk food categories. 

The global dietary fiber market was valued at roughly $9.6 billion in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 9.6% through 2034, as the fiber-maxxing trend gains even more momentum.

Fibermaxxing is already visible, according to Lim. Only 20% of people globally consume the recommended daily amount of fiber, yet social media posts using the #fibermaxxing hashtag attracted more than 150 million views on TikTok in 2025.

Food and beverage research firm Datassential found that 52% of US consumers are interested in trying fibermaxxing and 42% consider products labeled "high fiber" healthier.

Fiber has also overtaken probiotics in digestive-health marketing. Some 38% of products carrying a digestive-health claim now advertise high fiber, compared with 19% featuring probiotics. PepsiCo and Nestlé are among the big food companies that are placing fiber claims more prominently on their packaging.

About 35% of US consumers increased their protein intake between 2024 and 2025, while 75% said they would pay more for protein-rich foods and beverages. The global market for protein-rich products is estimated at $65 billion and growing at 6%-8% annually.

With GLP-1 penetration at 12% in the US and in the low single digits globally, adoption is expected to increase as the drugs become widely available in oral form and more affordable. Lim pointed out that "GLP-1 users need to consume more protein to mitigate the effects of muscle loss."

BNP identified Tate & Lyle and Ingredion as best positioned to benefit from fibermaxxing

Kerry Group, DSM-Firmenich, IFF, Givaudan and Novonesis could benefit from demand for flavors, enzymes, cultures and texture solutions.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 23:00

Trained On 53 Million Pages: US Supercomputer-Backed Tool To Search Nuclear Reactor Data

Zero Hedge -

Trained On 53 Million Pages: US Supercomputer-Backed Tool To Search Nuclear Reactor Data

Authored by Aman Tripathi via Interesting Engineering,

Nuclear power stations across North America have begun using a dedicated virtual system called NIVA. The software was created by Atomic Canyon in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute, the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations, and the Nuclear Energy Institute.

Atomic Canyon collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to train the FERMI models. (Representational image)

It provides engineers and technicians across the commercial reactor fleet with an automated method to query vast archives of technical, operational, and regulatory records.

"The U.S. nuclear sector sits on decades of invaluable technical and operational knowledge, but too much of that knowledge remains difficult to access at the speed modern deployments require," said Trey Lauderdale, Founder & CEO, Atomic Canyon.

"The fleetwide availability of NIVA shows that AI in nuclear power is real, operational, and ready to be deployed responsibly at a fleetwide scale."

Technical architecture for model training

The technological foundation of the platform rests on a specialized model family named FERMI. Standard, general-purpose language systems frequently fail to parse the dense technical terminology, precise abbreviations, and domain-specific syntax common in nuclear engineering. FERMI was built to resolve this issue by interpreting technical meaning rather than simply scanning for exact keyword occurrences.

Atomic Canyon collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to train the models on the Frontier exascale supercomputer. The training dataset included more than 53 million pages of documentation from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The completed model weights are publicly available on the Hugging Face repository.

FERMI functions within an operational software interface called Neutron. While NIVA applies the retrieval models across broader sector archives, the Neutron environment links those capabilities directly to an individual station's private network. This structure lets local engineering departments run searches across their own licensing bases, routine maintenance logs, technical drawings, and operating procedures.

The current rollout provides plant personnel with two functional modules, alongside a third tool scheduled for future release.

Functional modules with commercial expansion plan

The first component is the Knowledge Assistant. Plant staff can enter queries in conversational phrasing to obtain direct answers extracted from verified technical repositories. The system sources information from NRC Regulatory Guides, NUREG reports, NEI guidelines, INPO standards, and EPRI research publications. Every output includes direct citations in the text, allowing engineers to verify statements against the original source documents.

The second component is the Operating Experience Assistant. This tool reviews historical plant performance logs and previous event reports. It evaluates the underlying context of a query instead of looking for surface-level word matches, and engineers can interact with the returned records through a conversational query window to investigate past equipment behavior. A third tool focused on diagnostic and troubleshooting tasks is undergoing software development, with plant trials planned for later this year.

The commercial deployment follows a six-month pilot evaluation period at several operating utilities, including Constellation Energy, which operates 21 reactors across 12 station sites.

Atomic Canyon previously tested its generative tools on-site at the Diablo Canyon facility managed by Pacific Gas and Electric Company.

To finance the expansion of the software across additional commercial sites, Atomic Canyon secured an investment round. Backers include NVIDIA, Plug and Play Ventures, and former Vanguard Group chairman Mortimer Buckley. The funds will support ongoing software engineering and integration across operating facilities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 22:35

Russia Says Ready For 'New Ideas' From US On Ending Ukraine War

Zero Hedge -

Russia Says Ready For 'New Ideas' From US On Ending Ukraine War

The Kremlin has newly said it is ready for dialogue with Washington and open to ideas for ending the conflict in Ukraine, but still says it will not compromise on Russia's core aims.

A senior Russian diplomat has stressed that any future talks must align with President Vladimir Putin's position. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated in an interview published by national media on Friday that Russia is open to proposals that are in line with "realities on the ground."

"The Russian Federation is ready to listen to any reasonable proposals and ideas that are in line with the goals set by the Russian president and meet the ‘realities on the ground’," Ryabkov said.

"At this stage, it is more important to what extent Washington is able to influence the decisions of the Kyiv regime and its European sponsors, who still dream of a ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia," he added.

via Reuters

The remarks suggest that the Kremlin is responding positively and openly to recent overtures initiated by Washington.

"US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated the need to put forward new ideas toward a settlement, and we are ready to listen to them if this constitutes the mentioned 'efforts' of the Americans," Ryabkov continued.

"We remain open to dialogue with Washington, but that does not mean that we will abandon our fundamental positions," he added.

Time is working against Ukraine and its Western backers in Europe, "something they will have to reckon with," Ryabkov additionally pointed out.

President Trump has this summer signaled that his outlook on Ukraine's chances on the battlefield may have softened or changed of late:

By the time Trump and Zelensky met at a NATO summit in July, the American president said the Ukrainian leader had “been very effective” in the war. “We’ve actually developed a good relationship,” Trump added.

But as Ukraine’s strikes have intensified, so have Russia’s — and Kyiv faces major challenges in defending against them because of shortages of American Patriot air defense missiles.

Zelensky, for his part, has been explicit that the new long-range strikes are meant to force Moscow to the negotiating table under conditions that favor Kiev.

The LA Times has recently outlined significant developments this summer, which are part of this risky strategy:

  • As part of the campaign against oil infrastructure, Kyiv said it hit Russia’s largest oil refinery, more than 1,550 miles from Ukraine.
  • Kyiv has also targeted defense manufacturing centers. It hit a factory making navigation systems multiple times, including with its own Flamingo missile.
  • In July and August, Ukraine struck warehouses for major Russian online retailer Wildberries. Kyiv said the company helps supply the Russian military. Moscow denies that.
  • Many of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian air defenses and radar are around Russian-held Crimea and are often carried out with drones.

But there are still no signs that Russia's own retaliatory strikes are letting up - instead they are intensifying and becoming more and more deadly - also at a moment Ukraine's air defense munitions and capabilities are dwindling fast.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 22:10

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