The Oil Shock Is Weakening India's Economy and Finances

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

India is scrambling to contain the economic and financial impact of the worst oil supply disruption in history as analysts say the high oil prices would continue to weigh on the Indian currency, economic growth, and public finances as long as supply is choked at the Strait of Hormuz.

More than three months after the Iran war began, investment banks, brokerages, rating agencies, and even India’s central bank are lowering economic growth forecasts, while the government intervenes to stop the cash bleed from the balance of payments that has surged with the oil prices.

India, which imports more than 85% of the oil it consumes, received about half of all its imports from the Middle East before the war. Now, state-owned and private refiners are looking to diversify imports, including by taking in record volumes of Russian oil, and turning to Venezuela and Brazil for additional crude to offset the lost Middle Eastern supply.

Yet, the high import prices, with oil up by about $30 per barrel compared to pre-war levels, are weighing on India’s economic prospects and public finances.

“India is set for a series of supply shocks,” Michael Langham, emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments, told Reuters.

India on Friday introduced measures to protect its currency, the rupee, which had plunged to an all-time low versus the U.S. dollar amid the energy crisis.

Yet, the world’s third-biggest crude importer has seen its growth prospects diminished as its high import dependence and the high price refiners pay weigh on inflation and GDP growth.

India’s economy remains resilient to the external shocks, but the oil price surge poses near-term downside risks to economic growth and upside risks to inflation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said at the end of May.

Indian wealth and asset manager 360 ONE Capital last week said that India’s inflation is set to accelerate to 4.8% in the fiscal year 2027, if oil prices average $90 per barrel through March next year. 

“A further $10/bbl increase in crude prices above our base assumption could push inflation to 5.6 per cent (assuming a partial pass-through of around 5 per cent to retail fuel prices), lower GDP growth by an additional 40 bps to 5.9 per cent, widen the current account deficit to 2.5 per cent GDP, and increase the fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP,” analysts at 360 ONE Capital wrote in a report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 17:40

Iran Threatens "Decisive Response" After US Begins 'Self-Defense' Strikes Following Downing Of Apache Helicopter Summary:

• US begins 'self defense' strikes against Iran

• Iran threatens retaliation after US retaliatory strikes

• Trump says 'US must respond' after Iran downed Apache over Strait 

• Trump says Washington and Tehran are in the "final throes" of cementing a deal, "two or three days"

• Iran shoots down US Apache helicopter over Strait, crew safe

• Despite Trump calls for Israeli ceasefire, casualties are rising in southern Lebanon

So much for the early hopes of an imminent deal...

US Begins "Self Defense" Strikes Against Iran, Iran Threatens Re-Retaliation

Just as President Trump has warned, US Central Command has just tweeted confirmation that the US military began 'self defense' strikes against Iran:

"U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces began launching self-defense strikes against Iran at 5 p.m. ET today at the Commander in Chief’s direction, in response to yesterday’s downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter.

The mission is a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression."

The extent of the latest strikes wasn’t immediately clear but they further undercut an already fragile ceasefire signed in April.

A US official tells Fox that airstrikes targeting Iran are "ongoing" and targets include air defenses and radar installations.

IRNA reports explosions in Iran's Hormozgan province, while IRIB reports aerial attacks in Qeshm, Sirik and Bandar Abbas with six explosions reported in Qeshm

The US and Iran have traded attacks several times in recent days even as Trump has said they are close to signing an agreement to bring the conflict to an end.

President Trump told ABC News Jonathan Karl:

"I think it's very important to respond. They shot down a helicopter, and we are responding as we speak."

He added:

"This is a response to what they did they did with our helicopter last night, and I believe the response should be very strong, very powerful, and that's what this one is."

Shortly after the strikes began, IRGC-owned Tasnim News reported that Iran is threatening to retaliate for US' retaliation:

"Iran will respond to US aggression.

As warned hours earlier, Iran will deliver a decisive response to the US aggression, which is being carried out under the pretext of an Apache helicopter crash."

Odds of a peace deal are sliding and oil prices are rising (though not significantly).

Trump Reacts to Apache Downing, Threatens Response

Following earlier reports that a US AH-64 Apache helicopter had gone down over the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman in an unprecedented first of the Iran war, moments ago Trump said on Truth Social that he had "been informed by our Great Military that last night the Iranians shot down one of our highly sophisticated Apache Helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. There were two pilots involved, both are safe and uninjured. Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack."

The news that the US may imminently resume the Iran war - sent oil surging instantly...

... as Trump's latest promise that a huge peace is coming appears to have unraveled yet again.

Trump Says In 'Final Throes' of Iran Deal... Again

President Trump is still maintaining that Washington and Tehran are in the "final throes" of cementing a deal, and is even suggesting (once again) that an agreement will be done in days:

Asked whether it would be matter of days or weeks, he said it would take “two or three days”.

Tehran has repeatedly stated any deal should include Lebanon—where Israel has been pressing its war with Iran-backed Hezbollah—and fired missiles at Israel on Sunday. That prompted Israeli retaliation, despite US pressure for restraint.

Iran fired another salvo before announcing it was ceasing military action, and hours later Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the “fire on that front is contained”.

Of course, we've been hearing that the war is merely 'days' away from ending from basically the start of the war. And yet, all too predictably, the two sides keep going up the escalation ladder in an escalation trap.

But the White House is saying that it will forge a deal which is good for the American people, whether Israel likes it or not. "Israel may like that, they may not like that — but this is in the best interest of the United States," Vice President JD Vance spelled out to Fox this week.

US Apache Helicopter Shot Down over Strait, Crew Safe

A US helicopter has gone down over the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman in an unprecedented first of the Iran war, Central Command announced Tuesday, after which the two crew members were reportedly rescued by unmanned boats.

The Army AH-64 Apache was patrolling regional waters before the downing incident, which is still shrouded in mystery, and which the Pentagon says it is now investigating. However, the Iranians are saying they know exactly what happened - insisting that the Apache was shot down.

"An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter belonging to the U.S. Army was shot down and destroyed by the IRGC Navy near the Strait of Hormuz, after ignoring warnings and being targeted by fired from one of our speedboats," an Iranian military central command statement has said.

The NY Times, among the first to report the downing, underscores the claims and counter-claims concerning what happened:

It was not immediately clear whether the Apache was shot down by Iranian fire, experienced mechanical failure or encountered some other problem, said a person briefed on the incident, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Central Command said in a statement that the incident was under investigation.

But the Pentagon says the crew was successfully rescued. The unusual rescue by unmanned boats adds another layer of complexity and strangeness to the story. 

"A Task Force 59 unmanned surface vessel, essentially a drone boat, found and rescued the soldiers," spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins described to NBC News. The pair of pilots are now receiving medical care, he indicated, after their rescue came within two hours of the aircraft going down.

Trump briefly spoke to journalists at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York after watching the NBA Finals on Monday night and he acknowledged the rare crash in the Persian Gulf.

"The pilots are fine. Yeah," Trump said. "Nobody injured. We are going to issue a report tomorrow. But the pilots are fine."

Apaches, along with A-10 gunships, have been frequently used for low-flying operations in the Persian Gulf and Hormuz region, in order to attack Iranian small boast.

As for the Iranian claims of shootdown, it remains a top most plausible scenario, but the Pentagon has not said whether it took on Iranian fire.

FOX: American military forces, including U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, the 82nd Airborne Division, and U.S. 5th Fleet assets, helped bring both soldiers to safety.

NEW: Two U.S. soldiers are safe after a dramatic rescue operation off the coast of Oman.

CENTCOM says the crew members were recovered roughly two hours after their AH-64 Apache helicopter went down while patrolling regional waters.

American military forces, including U.S. Naval… pic.twitter.com/iBr7WiQnKB

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 9, 2026

During earlier operations connected to Epic Fury, other US military aerial assets have crashed or sustained damage over the region - however, the Pentagon has downplayed or rejected efforts to link a number of incidents to Iranian attack, apparently not wishing to give Tehran a battlefield 'success' acknowledgement.

But many independent pundits have suspected that all along the Iranians have been hitting a lot more American assets than previously disclosed.

Death Toll Soars As Israel Pounds South Lebanon

The southern Lebanese city of Tyre is being pounded by Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday, despite President Trump's insistence that Lebanon not come under attack. Israel's military had hours prior issued an evacuation order for all civilians in the area, amid the unraveling and failing ceasefire.

Casualties are already high, coming at a tense moment after starting on Sunday Iran sent ballistic missiles against Israel over its renewed airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut, where it says Hezbollah command centers are located.

The NY Times reports of the growing death toll Tuesday, "At least eight people were killed in the bombardment, and dozens more were wounded, Lebanon’s health ministry said. The Israeli military also targeted towns and villages across southern Lebanon, including areas that were not covered by evacuation warnings, according to the country’s state-run news agency."

Attack on Tyre, via AFP

So clearly the air raids are expanding, per the report, even after the latest Trump warnings directed at Netanyahu to not do anything that would sabotage a broader Iran peace agreement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 17:25

Viral Influencer: How Bill Gates' Billions Shape US Medical Research

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via RealClearInvestigations,

Bill Gates has long been one of the most admired people in the world, especially since he stepped down from his role running Microsoft to devote himself and much of his fortune to philanthropy. That reputation has been tarnished recently, however, by revelations of the billionaire's close relation with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and exposes on his own fraught relationships with women.

On the eve of Gates' private testimony with Congress scheduled for tomorrow, a trove of federal whistleblower documents provided to RealClearInvestigations is renewing questions about how Gates money has bought what critics complain is an untoward influence on government health policy. For almost a quarter of a century, his main vehicle of power, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has donated hundreds of millions of dollars to the National Institutes of Health (NIH), allowing Gates to shape the direction of the country's health strategy in ways that have benefitted his own priorities and pet causes while polishing his image as a benevolent global do-gooder.

At a time of growing concern about the power of billionaires such as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Sam Altman, Gates' efforts stand out. Instead of lobbying federal agencies for specific policies, Gates leveraged his wealth to work inside the government, partnering with high-ranking NIH officials to steer taxpayer research funding and design scientific policies for several federal programs.

The cache of several dozen emails and documents, made public for the first time by an NIH whistleblower, reinforces previous reports detailing Gates's extensive influence over U.S. biomedical research. During the height of the COVID pandemic, Kate Elder, a senior vaccines policy adviser for Doctors Without Borders, complained to Politico, "What makes Bill Gates qualified to be giving advice and advising the U.S. government on where they should be putting the tremendous resources?"

Emails and internal plans, for example, show that the NIH - the world's largest funder of biomedical research - gave the Gates Foundation first billing for the joint workshops and meeting held on federal property.

The Gates Foundation did not respond to repeated requests for comment. The NIH also declined to comment.

Leveraging Investments

Like most philanthropies, the Gates Foundation tries to grow its endowment through investments. Some of these efforts, especially its stake in vaccine companies, blur the lines between profit-seeking and the foundation's mission to develop and deliver vaccines around the world. This symbiotic relationship between capitalism and charity also benefits Gates, whose power and position hinge in large part on the size of his foundation's assets. Before the pandemic, The Nation magazine reported that the Gates Foundation had a $40 million stake in CureVac - this was not a grant but an investment. CureVac was one of many companies the nonprofit bought stock in that were working on COVID vaccines and therapeutics.

Around that same period, the Gates Foundation announced that it had begun to "leverage a portion of its $2.5 billion Strategic Investment Fund" to advance the nonprofit's COVID work. The Gates Foundation also turned a $55 million investment in Pfizer's COVID vaccine partner, BioNTech, into over $550 million when it sold stock a couple of years later after the vaccine hit the market.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation was established in 2000 with an initial endowment of $20 billion and a primary focus on reducing global health disparities. Rather than working exclusively through non-governmental agencies, the Gates Foundation began contributing to the NIH through the agency's own nonprofit, the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH). Congress created the FNIH in 1990 as a firewall between NIH officials and outside donors seeking to influence federal research.

That firewall is not ironclad.

In 2018, for example, NIH officials, funded by beer and liquor companies through an FNIH grant, were in frequent contact with the alcohol industry while designing a study that seemed predetermined to find alcohol's benefits but not potential harms, such as cancer. The NIH also declined money in 2018 from drugmakers to support a proposed $400 million research program to discover opioid alternatives and addiction treatments. Like the alcohol funds, that drugmaker money would have also been routed through the FNIH.

Major Grants To Government

In 2003, the Gates Foundation donated $200 million to the FNIH to fund NIH scientific programs, an unprecedented sum. Rice University researchers warned in 2008 that this Gates cash was shifting the NIH's scientific priorities, even though the money was cycled through the FNIH. While FNIH manages and administers Gates money, they said, the Gates Foundation's scientific board ultimately "oversees and selects the projects to be funded" at the NIH.

After Gates gave an NIH lecture in 2013, NIH documents show that the agency began hosting Gates-NIH Workshops, eventually synchronizing federal research programs with Gates, to include coordinating grant funding and science policies across 10 NIH programs.

"Bill Gates, along with the NIH, the Wellcome Trust, it was this cartel," the whistleblower, a former NIH official who requested anonymity, told RCI. "This is a globalist movement. And that's something that I don't think the public knows."

The Gates Foundation held its second annual meeting with the NIH in July 2105, with both sides proposing new areas of teamwork, and later agreeing to cooperate on funding and research policies for global health. One area of overlap was the West African Ebola outbreaks. To align the Gates Foundation's Ebola research with the federal agency, Gates routed money through the FNIH so that NIH employees could hire the McKinsey consulting firm.

According to the NIH's summary of the 2015 workshop, McKinsey's study of the Ebola field found 20 therapeutics, eight diagnostics, and eight different vaccines, concluding that the Merck and GSK vaccines were the most advanced.

At no point in the several dozen emails and documents provided to RCI did NIH officials appear to raise any concerns about conflicts of interest regarding their work with Gates, nor the hiring of McKinsey to shape federal research and development policies. McKinsey is a global consulting firm whose clients include dozens of foreign governments and some of the world's largest corporations.

House Democrats released an April 2022 investigation that documented McKinsey's conflicts of interest during the opioid epidemic that killed tens of thousands of Americans, finding that McKinsey provided consulting advice to both Purdue Pharma and the Food and Drug Administration from 2008 to 2019.

In one example, the report surfaced emails with McKinsey employees congratulating themselves for influencing a 2018 speech on opioid safety by then-FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb.

When Congress brought McKinsey managing partner Bob Sternfels before cameras during a 2022 public hearing, he alleged that his firm did not have a conflict of interest when it gave simultaneous advice to both OxyContin's manufacturer and the government agency that regulated OxyContin. Two years later, McKinsey paid a $650 million fine to resolve a criminal and civil investigation into the firm's consulting work with Purdue Pharma.

"The NIH and BMGF have had a long history of interaction, particularly with respect to vaccines and drugs," reads the NIH summary of the 2015 Gates-NIH meeting.

A longtime NIH official said that the agency's leadership initially held Gates at arm's length, but eventually gave in. "They were very suspicious at first," said the official, who requested anonymity. "But they got caught up in, 'Wow, he's the richest man in the world!"

The NIH official added, "What I saw, which really, I think, extends until this day, is a complete merging of NIH and Gates. And I've never seen that written anywhere. I don't think people realize this incredible symbiotic relationship."

Bill Gates Is Coming!

Bill Gates added a bit of splendor to the Gates-NIH workshop series when he made his first personal appearance at the April 2016 meeting. As part of the meticulous planning for the event, NIH Director Francis Collins held a 45-minute teleconference 10 days prior to hash out the meeting's details with Trevor Mundel, a former pharmaceutical executive in charge of global health at the Gates Foundation.

According to a list of key "milestones and accomplishments" sent at the time to Collins, the Gates Foundation was by then firmly entwined within the NIH ecosystem to include dual workshops, joint clinical trials, combined research policies, and collaborative funding efforts. For example, NIH staff and Gates employees worked together on clinical trials for TB treatment in Africa. Both Gates and NIH employees also began a joint study for TB with support from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.

The night before the meeting, the NIH held a reception and a catered dinner, paid by the FNIH, for almost two dozen Gates executives at the Cloisters Mansion, a historic, stone castle in rural Maryland, where actor Will Smith married actress Jada Pinkett.

Emails show that the NIH continued scrambling that night to lock down the arrival of other attendees, which included Obama officials at the Department of Health and Human Services and the Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, Robert Califf.

To provide Bill Gates a luxury experience, NIH staff prepared Collins - a Nobel Prize-winning scientist - a minute-by-minute itinerary for the arrival of Gates and his retinue the following morning. NIH police were ordered to greet Bill at the facility's entrance and then escort the billionaire's three-vehicle convoy the final half mile to one of the main research centers, where the Director lingered in waiting. Such deference to power, said a senior Trump official when reading the Collins itinerary over the phone, is normally reserved for the president, first lady, or visiting dignitaries of state.

"Dr. Collins will meet Bill Gates after he exits the car and steps inside of the building," the itinerary read. After posing for a photo, Collins was bidden to escort the billionaire into the main auditorium and welcome the audience for Gates.

The agenda shows Collins and Gates Foundation's Trevor Mundel gave a joint introduction before stepping aside for Bill Gates's opening speech. Moderated by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the man who would later lead the U.S. medical response to COVID, the first panel included a mix of NIH and Gates executives discussing microbial outbreaks and public-private partnerships to develop pandemic-preventive vaccines.

Collins then moderated a panel on "Research on Engineered Gene Drives and Vector-Borne Disease Control: Status and Next Direction." Gene drive technology involves inserting specific genetic traits to spread rapidly throughout a population. Gates has long been a fan of gene drives to control mosquitoes, but the technology is highly controversial as it could also drive species to extinction and irrevocably alter ecosystems. The NIH's scientific program to control mosquitoes with genetic technology was apparently started with seed money from Gates in 2003. Last August, the African nation Burkina Faso suspended a malaria program funded by Gates over safety concerns.

Beginning in 2012, a Bill Gates-funded nonprofit called Target Malaria began a gene drive technology study to eradicate malaria-transmitting mosquitoes in Burkina Faso. Last August, Burkina Faso's government suspended Target Malaria's project over safety concerns and worries about the excessive influence of Bill Gates on the country's sovereignty.

Gates only stayed the morning of the 2016 meeting and left before lunch. "Bill Gates is escorted, by Dr. Collins, out of the building through the same hallway he entered," reads Collins' itinerary. "NIH Police escort Mr. Gates and staff to the exit gate."

The meeting ended with a wrap-up and review of next steps, led by Collins and a Gates executive.

Later that year, the FNIH honored the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Pfizer with an award for supporting the NIH's mission. Gates was recognized for $413 million dollars in donations and Pfizer for $73 million. In a press release announcing the honor, the NIH said, "Their gifts created cornerstone programs and paved the way for our partnerships with literally hundreds of other organizations dedicated to driving biomedical research worldwide."

The FNIH continues to maintain close ties to pharmaceutical interests, a major NIH funder. The current CEO, Julie Gerberding, came to the FNIH during the COVID pandemic, having previously served as President of Merck Vaccines.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 17:00

Man Accused In Fatal Charlotte Train Stabbing Ruled Incompetent To Stand Trial

Two months after mental health experts deemed Decarlos Brown Jr. incompetent to stand trial for the fatal train stabbing of 23-year-old Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska last year - when Brown shouted "I got that white girl" - a federal judge has agreed with them. 

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks alongside photos of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska and Decarlos Brown Jr. during a press briefing at the White House on Sept. 9, 2025. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Brown, 34, will be committed to a federal facility for treatment for up to four months in an attempt to restore competency, Judge Kenneth D. Bell said in his order on June 9.

After Brown's time in the treatment facility, the court will again take up the case to determine if he is then considered competent. If he is found competent, the murder case will resume.

If he is not found to be competent, and the court finds he cannot be restored to competency, the court will rule on further treatment.

The defendant stands accused of stabbing Zarutska to death on a Charlotte, North Carolina, commuter train in August 2025.

Brown was charged with one count of Violence Against a Railroad Carrier and Mass Transportation System Resulting in Death. If convicted, the defendant faces the death penalty.

A random horror caught on camera

As we noted in April, the killing occurred on the evening of August 22, 2025. Twenty-three-year-old Iryna Zarutska, still wearing her black baseball cap from her shift at Zepeddie’s Pizza, boarded the Lynx Blue Line light-rail train heading home. She took a seat. Seconds later, Brown - already seated directly behind her - pulled a pocketknife from his hoodie and stabbed her three times in the neck and upper body in a sudden, unprovoked attack.

Surveillance video, which quickly circulated online, captured the gruesome moment: Zarutska’s desperate attempts to fight back as blood poured from her wounds, while other passengers initially failed to intervene. Brown stood, wandered through the train leaving a trail of blood, and exited at the East/West Boulevard station. He was arrested on the platform minutes later. Investigators say he told officers he believed the young woman had been “reading his mind.”

Zarutska, who had fled the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 seeking safety and a new life in America, died at the scene. Friends and family described her as vibrant, hardworking, and full of hope. Heart-wrenching videos later shared by loved ones showed her laughing, cooking, and enjoying simple moments with friends—images that stood in heartbreaking contrast to the brutality of her final minutes.

A suspect with a long trail of red flags

Brown was no stranger to the justice system. Court records and family statements show he had amassed more than 14 arrests in North Carolina since 2007, including charges for assault, firearms violations, and felony robbery.

Two years after he was released from a five-year sentence for robbery, the same year Zarutska fled Ukraine, Brown was arrested again for assaulting his sister, who did not pursue charges. 

His mother and sister have publicly described a sharp decline in his mental health after a prison stint, including violent outbursts, delusions, and refusal to take prescribed medication for schizophrenia. Despite multiple attempts by his family to have him involuntarily committed, he was repeatedly released - most recently on cashless bail after what authorities described as a bogus 911 call.

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Community members gather for a vigil honoring the life of Iryna Zarutska, who was fatally stabbed on a commuter train last month, Monday, Sept. 22, 2025, in Charlotte, N.C. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 16:40

55% Of Democrats Would Prefer Living Outside The US; Survey Finds

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

A poll conducted last month shows 55 percent of Democrats answering affirmatively when asked "Is there any other country on Earth you would rather live in than the United States today?"

Breitbart reports that the Elon University/YouGov America 250 National Survey conducted between April 30 and May 4 asked 1,000 US adults ages 18 and older about their feelings as the nation prepares to celebrate its 250th year.

Thirty-eight percent of Independents answered yes while only 10 percent of Republicans said the same.

Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, described a country that remains proud but uneasy as the anniversary approaches.

According to a new Elon University/YouGov poll, a full *55%* of Democrats said that they would rather live in a different country than the United States.

Only 10% of Republicans said the same. pic.twitter.com/cSpccKhC6d

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) June 7, 2026

When respondents were asked where they would choose to live outside the US, Canada topped the wish list at 19 percent, followed by the United Kingdom at 9 percent, and Japan and Australia at 5 percent each. Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, and Italy also drew interest.

According to PJ Media, the same survey found 68 percent of adults said they are proud to be American, with 95 percent of Republicans answering in the affirmative, 62 percent of independents and only 48 percent of Democrats. Similarly, a poll conducted last fall showed a majority of Democrat voters aligned with socialism over capitalism and supported far-left candidates, stating:

Unsurprisingly, the survey found that socialism is largely toxic to Republicans and many independents, explaining why far-left Democrats have had more success in places like New York City but have struggled in red and battleground areas. The poll also found that a plurality of independent voters and Republicans prefer capitalism.

American voters are leaning away from Democrats as the critical midterms approach, with a recent CNN poll showing Democrat support sliding.

In April, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) summarized the battle for the midterms, saying, "I think this election actually comes down ... to two sentences, and those sentences are 'They're crazy. We're not.' And I think we have to highlight that for the American people."

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 16:20

Dan Loeb Reveals DOJ Threat To Trump Over Ross Ulbricht Commutation In Final Hours Of First Term

Authored by Juan Galt via Bitcoin Magazine,

Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb has publicly claimed that the Department of Justice threatened President Donald Trump in the final hours of Trump's first term in January 2021, warning it would "go after" him if he commuted the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, creator of the Bitcoin-powered Silk Road marketplace. After the reported threat, Trump withdrew the commutation, forcing Ulbricht to serve four additional years in prison before receiving a full pardon in January 2025 during Trump's second term.

Loeb, founder and CEO of Third Point LLC, made the revelation on the All-In Podcast while discussing his role in criminal justice reform and Ulbricht's clemency efforts. "On the last day of Trump's 45th term, we were certain that he was going to get out," Loeb stated. "And the Justice Department, for whatever reason, said, 'If you commute his sentence, we're going to go after you,' to the president. So he, as I understand, he withdrew the commutation."

This account is the first public report of such a direct threat from the DOJ during the closing days of Trump's first presidency. It has not been independently corroborated by other sources to date, and no specific DOJ official has been named as delivering the warning. The claim rests on Loeb's recollection, likely conveyed through the advocacy chain that included crypto figures like Riva Tez, Charlie Kirk, and then-White House counsel David Warrington.

DOJ Leadership In January 2021

Jeffrey A. Rosen served as Acting Attorney General after William Barr's departure in late December 2020. Richard Donoghue was Acting Deputy Attorney General. The Office of the Pardon Attorney, a DOJ unit that reviews clemency petitions and issues recommendations, operated under their oversight. Presidents, including Trump, frequently bypassed standard OPA processes for politically sensitive cases.

The alleged threat appears to have gone well beyond typical DOJ advisory input on issues such as sentence proportionality, victim impact, or enforcement priorities. Ulbricht had been serving a double life sentence plus 40 years following his 2015 conviction on charges including operating a continuing criminal enterprise, narcotics distribution via the internet, money laundering, and hacking. Contrary to popular belief and widely publicized insinuations by the mainstream media, Ulbricht was never prosecuted on any charges related to murder for hire.

Silk Road, which relied primarily on Bitcoin for transactions, represented one of the earliest large-scale experiments in the use of an alternative currency to the dollar, making the case and its history foundational to the Bitcoin community.

A warning framed as potential retaliation against the President himself would constitute an extraordinary escalation in tensions between the executive branch and the Department of Justice over clemency authority. Such pushback likely stemmed from institutional concerns about appearing soft on major drug trafficking and money laundering cases tied to the early Bitcoin economy.

Four-Year Delay And Political Impact

The reported DOJ intervention in the final days of Trump's first term cost Ulbricht four more years behind bars. As Loeb recounted, Charlie Kirk later took the lead on the clemency effort. "This was his only ask of the president," Loeb said, referring to Kirk. Kirk's advocacy helped turn Ulbricht's release into Trump's primary promise to libertarians and the crypto community during the 2024 campaign. Trump delivered on that promise with a full and unconditional pardon early in his second term.

Ironically, the delay strengthened the "Free Ross" movement. What began as advocacy for clemency in a case viewed by many in Bitcoin circles as emblematic of government overreach evolved into a potent political force. The campaign highlighted issues of disproportionate sentencing, self-custody, privacy tools, and resistance to broadly unpopular and ineffective war on drugs, core themes in Bitcoin's ethos of financial sovereignty and of high importance to the libertarian voting block. This momentum and Trump's promise to pardon Ulbricht are widely considered to have earned Trump the libertarian and crypto vote in 2024.

Broader Context For Bitcoin

Loeb framed his involvement in Ulbricht's case as part of broader criminal justice reform, linking it to his broader philanthropy efforts on education and concerns over opportunity and income inequality. He highlighted three categories for clemency: the wrongly convicted, the rehabilitated, and those with disproportionately harsh sentences. Ulbricht, who acknowledged wrongdoing on Silk Road while denying murder-for-hire allegations, fit the latter category in Loeb's assessment.

The episode highlights ongoing tensions between law enforcement, Bitcoin innovation, and the libertarian culture that makes up a large part of the U.S. public. Silk Road, one of the earliest Bitcoin marketplaces, remains a reference point in debates over decentralization, privacy, and regulatory overreach. Similar cases continue to draw attention in the Bitcoin community, including Bitcoin activist Ian Freeman, the developers of the Samourai Wallet privacy tool, and Roman Storm of Tornado Cash - all facing charges viewed by many as attacks on Libertarian leaders, the freedom of commerce, self-custody and financial privacy tools.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 15:40

Goldman Details A Quiet Month For Western Nuclear While Russia And China Pick Up Speed

May saw multiple significant milestones and announcements in the Western nuclear industry. One of the biggest achievements was in the US last week when microreactor developer Antares brought their pilot design critical for the first time. 

There were other major wins with Constellation clearing a path to bring their Three Mile Island reactor plant back to the grid years ahead of schedule, new partnerships with data centers and reactor developers including NANO and Supermicro, and Westinghouse owner Cameco stating there are as many as 20 new large reactors in the pipeline, to be formally announced in the near future. 

Unfortunately, that's all the West really has to show over these past few weeks: proposals and R&D milestones. 

Looking at the only scoreboard that really matters, China is now building 40 grid-scale nuclear reactors.   

Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee reviews headlines across the nuclear industry for May. 

New reactor progress and announcements North America

5/15/2026 - United States - The US DOE has awarded ~$94m to eight companies to support near-term SMR deployment, targeting licensing, site preparation, and supply-chain gaps to accelerate Gen III+ SMRs in the 2030s.

Europe

5/13/2026 - Belgium and Netherlands - Belgium and the Netherlands signed an MoU to strengthen nuclear cooperation, focusing on R&D, knowledge sharing, supply chains, and workforce development, while leveraging Belgium's operating experience and Dutch new-build/SMR plans.

Asia and other

5/11/2026 - China - Construction has begun on Unit 4 at China's Taipingling nuclear plant, with first concrete poured on 10 May, marking the start of full-scale build for the fourth of six Hualong One (HPR1000) reactors planned at the site.

5/11/2026 - Iran - Rosatom is continuing construction of Bushehr Units 2 and 3, with Unit 2 now over 60% complete and steam generators ~50% complete. Work remains focused on site construction and workforce ramp-up, with key equipment shipments expected from next year and manufacturing ongoing for Unit 3.

5/12/2026 - India - India has approved the restart of Tarapur Unit 2 after major refurbishment, allowing another 10 years of operation, while NTPC is advancing feasibility studies for its first nuclear project, marking progress toward private sector involvement in new builds.

5/13/2026 - Indonesia - Russia and Indonesia have discussed cooperation on nuclear energy, with Rosatom offering a full-scope partnership covering large reactors, SMRs, and floating plants, alongside support for infrastructure, localisation, and workforce development.

5/21/2026 - China & Russia - China and Russia signed three nuclear MoUs covering workforce development, fusion, and advanced science cooperation, reinforcing collaboration in future nuclear technologies.

5/22/2026 - Kazakhstan - Kazakhstan approved a localisation plan to build a domestic nuclear supply chain, aiming to raise local content to ~30% and support local firms' participation in upcoming nuclear projects.

5/22/2026 - Argentina - Argentina has granted Atucha II a 10-year operating licence extension, allowing the plant to run until May 2036, following regulatory inspections confirming it meets safety and operational requirements for continued service.

5/28/2026 - Kazakhstan - Russia and Kazakhstan have signed an agreement to build Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant, setting out project terms, financing (including a Russian export loan), and long-term cooperation.

5/29/2026 - South Korea - Construction has begun on Shin Hanul Unit 4 in South Korea, with first concrete poured for the reactor building, marking the official start of works. The APR1400 unit is targeted for completion in 2033, alongside Unit 3 (2022–33 timeline).

SMR announcement tracker

5/13/2026 - India - Tata Power's CEO confirmed the company is advancing SMR plans, preparing detailed project reports with NPCIL for two 220 MWe reactors, while conducting site studies across three Indian states to support potential deployment.

5/14/2026 - United States - FANCO and AtkinsRéalis have formed a strategic alliance to deploy the EAGL-1 SMR, combining capabilities to develop, test, and license the reactor and associated fuel facilities, with AtkinsRéalis serving as exclusive EPCM provider in North America and supporting scalable deployment targeted by 2033.

5/18/2026 - Sweden - Blykalla has applied to build a six-reactor SEALER SMR plant in Norrsundet, Sweden, with ~330 MWe total capacity, marking Sweden's first application for a commercial advanced reactor park and initiating the formal government approval process.

5/19/2026 - United States - The US NRC has completed its environmental assessment for the proposed Long Mott SMR plant in Texas, finding no significant environmental impact, marking a key licensing milestone that allows the project, featuring four X-energy Xe-100 reactors at Dow's Seadrift site to progress further through the regulatory approval process.

5/20/2026 - Rwanda - Rwanda and the US have signed an MoU on civil nuclear cooperation, establishing a framework to strengthen collaboration on nuclear energy development, with a focus on safety, security, and non-proliferation standards.

5/20/2026 - United States - Deep Fission is targeting a ~$1.66bn valuation via a planned Nasdaq IPO, aiming to raise ~$156m to fund R&D, licensing, and construction of its first pilot reactor. The company is developing 15 MWe borehole SMRs deployed ~1 mile underground, targeting applications such as data centres and large power users.

5/21/2026 - United States - The US NRC has accepted the application for a KRONOS microreactor at the University of Illinois for formal review, confirming it contains sufficient information to begin detailed safety, environmental, and technical evaluation.

5/21/2026 - South Korea - TerraPower has partnered with HD Hyundai and Hyundai Engineering to support Natrium deployment, including manufacturing, supply chain, and construction of multiple units.

5/26/2026 - France - Newcleo has installed the main vessel for its non-nuclear PRECURSOR demonstrator in Italy, a key step in developing its lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR) technology. The 10 MW test system, due for completion in 2026, will simulate reactor operations and support progress toward the company's 30 MWe demonstration reactor.

5/26/2026 - Sweden - Studsvik has submitted a third application in Sweden to build an SMR plant, proposing 2–4 light-water reactors (~600–1,400 MWe total) at its Nyköping site, with a target for first operations in the 2030s (subject to approvals).

5/26/2026 - United States - Deployable Energy has received DOE approval of the PDSA for its Unity microreactor, establishing the initial safety basis for testing and enabling the project to move into final preparations for demonstration, commissioning, and startup under DOE oversight.

5/27/2026 - Russia - Rosatom has completed the first RITM-200C reactor unit for a floating nuclear power plant, marking the start of series production for its planned fleet. The ~58 MWe reactor will be installed (two per unit) on floating plants to supply power to a copper mining cluster in Chukotka, supporting low-carbon energy for remote industrial use.

5/28/2026 - UK - Rolls-Royce SMR has selected Škoda JS and Doosan Enerbility for pre-production of key reactor components, supporting design, manufacturing readiness, and early project delivery.

6/4/2026 - United States - The DOE announced that Antares Nuclear's Mark-0 advanced reactor became the first reactor under its Reactor Plot Program to successfully complete a zero-power fueled criticality demonstration. This achievement occurred a month ahead of the July 4th deadline set by President Trump's Executive Order, and represents the first reactor in more than four decades to achieve criticality in the US.

Global reactor critical updates

In the month of May, there have been few changes to new reactor construction starts, grid connections, shutdowns, or restarts.

Global reactor construction tracker

Fuel announcements

5/6/2026 - United States - BWXT has secured its first customer for its $500m TRISO fuel plant in Gillette, with Kairos Power expected to both purchase fuel and partner on production, marking early external demand for the facility beyond BWXT's own needs. The plant is currently in development with construction targeted around 2028 and operations expected by 2030–31.

5/13/2026 - Czech Republic - Framatome and Czech Research Centre Řež have signed a cooperation deal to develop innovative fuels for research reactors, focusing on supporting the safe, flexible use of different fuel types at the LVR-15 and LR-0 reactors and advancing fuel design, core modelling, and optimisation work.

5/22/2026 - United States - Antares signed a long-term HALEU supply deal with Urenco, securing fuel for its microreactors (expected online ~2031) and marking the first multi-year HALEU contract.

5/22/2026 - United States - The US NRC has begun an accelerated review of Orano's Project IKE uranium enrichment plant, targeting completion of the technical licensing review within ~12 months (by April 2027) after formally accepting the application.

5/27/2026 - United States - Oklo has been selected by the US DOE for advanced negotiations under its Surplus Plutonium Utilization Program, which aims to convert surplus plutonium into fuel for advanced reactors, with Oklo expected to lead utilization efforts (with Newcleo support).

6/4/2026 - United States - XE's 1Q26 earnings results included an update on its fuel manufacturing build out, with its TX-1 facility now 56% complete and operations expected to commence by 1H28. This facility can support 11 reactors at steady state, with its TX-2 facility, which is still in the planning and design phase, expected to support another 44 reactors.

6/4/2026 - United States - SOLS held a webinar on its uranium conversion business, including a market overview, key competitive advantages, adj. EBITDA growth targets, opportunities within non-conversion capabilities, and thoughts on potential capacity expansion.

Uranium pricing and volume trackers

Spot pricing remained broadly range-bound. Spot U₃O₈ prices were largely stable through early May in the mid $80s (~$86/lb), before softening in the second half of the month and briefly declining to ~$83/lb. Prices subsequently rebounded into late May and early June, recovering to ~$85–86/lb as buying interest re-emerged. Market activity remained intermittent throughout the period, with trading flows largely episodic and driven by traders, while financial participation, including SPUT, appeared opportunistic rather than sustained.

Term pricing firm, supported by tightening fundamentals. Term uranium pricing remained resilient, with long-term indicators holding around ~$90/lb and rising toward ~$93/lb into late May, reinforcing the view of a structurally higher pricing band. Market backdrop continued to point to tightening supply-demand fundamentals, with 2026 primary production expected to fall short of base demand, implying a need for secondary supplies and supporting longer-term price signals. Overall, term market conditions remain constructive, though execution continues to be selective.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 15:20

From Classes On Bad Bunny To 'Queering God' Higher-Ed Has Lost Its Way

Via The College Fix,

Higher education is not what it used to be.

Gone are the days when students were required to study the classics. Nowadays it seems like any gibberish can pass for scholarly study.

The examples are myriad, write Daniel Buck, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Garion Frankel, incoming editor at the James G. Martin Center for Academic Renewal.

“Oregon State University offers ‘Disney: Gender, Race, and Empire.’

Students at Indiana University can attend the course, ‘Having it All: Postfeminist Media After Sex and the City,'” the two wrote in The Hill on June 2.

“How about ‘Bad Bunny: Musical Aesthetics and Politics’ at Yale University? The Bad Bunny Syllabus that inspires this course — which lists topics such as ‘LGBTQ Activism,’ ‘Gender and Sexuality in Reggaeton’ and ‘Political Protests of Summer 2019’ for study - is also in use at Wellesley College and Loyola Marymount University.

Both Swarthmore College and the University of Chicago offer courses on ‘Queering God.'”

The scholars go on to note these classes are no outliers:

Harvard offers an English course, “Taylor Swift and Her World.”

At UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, students can take “Artistry, Policy, and Entrepreneurship: Taylor’s Version” through the Department of Economics.

Penn State Berks offers a course titled, “Taylor Swift, Gender, and Communication.”

Another unofficial sub-genre of courses focuses on Korean pop music — “Lights, Camera, Action: The Visual Culture of K-Pop” at Columbia University, “K-Pop and Human Rights” at Binghamton University, “Kangnam Style: K-Pop and the Globalization of Korean Soft Power” at Stanford University, or “K-Pop and J-Pop Culture” at Florida International University.

The scholars point out that at a time when the return on investment for a four-year degree is plummeting and trust in higher education is at an all-time low, colleges and universities should return to their true purpose.

“A student who can tell you all about Swift’s entrepreneurship but cannot write a five-paragraph essay is not educated, but entertained,” the duo wrote.

“Why attend college in the first place? Universities were once places where students and faculty alike pursued higher aims — truth, beauty, ethics and even the divine.

What are they now? Too often, they resemble four-year summer camps, designed to make students comfortable with a participation diploma at the end.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 15:00

AI Agents With Crypto Could Escape And Become 'Unstoppable', Experts Warn

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

Artificial intelligence agents that have autonomous access to crypto wallets could become unstoppable if deployed maliciously or if they escape from sandboxes, experts from a leading academic research consortium warned.

“Unstoppable Autonomous Agents” (UAAs) pose a clear threat if they are deployed to persist automatically and have access to digital assets, according to a June 8 industry review written by 25 academics and experts from top US universities for the Initiative for Cryptocurrencies and Contracts (IC3).

“When combined systematically, crypto tools can channel AI’s fluid power into secure, reliable, and highly autonomous systems,” the researchers wrote.

However, this combination could have “far-reaching consequences for users and the financial system,” they added. 

UAAs may also be equipped with access to cryptocurrency wallets, social media accounts, APIs, and other external tools, said the researchers.

“The capabilities enabling such agents are already emerging and improving rapidly.” 

The warning comes as crypto projects and executives have been pushing the agentic payment and micropayment economy narrative this year, suggesting it could be the biggest use case for decentralized digital assets. 

AI self-replication alarm bells

The paper also revealed that existing models can already “surpass self-replication red lines” in local environments, by autonomously creating a live, separate copy of themselves on the same machine, “a capability that could let a system evade shutdown and proliferate.”

Because reward signals used in training often fail to perfectly capture the intended objectives, “UAAs deployed for benign purposes may inadvertently cause harm,” or pursue resource acquisition as a default strategy, they said. 

However, the authors noted that models have yet to replicate themselves onto external infrastructure.

Potential AI agent insider trading advantages 

A fleet of self-replicating, resource-acquiring agents could also create unpredictable demand and liquidity dynamics in crypto markets. 

“AI-powered trading systems could enable collusion between autonomous agents and create unfair insider advantages through opaque strategies.”

The tech sector is already dealing with difficult questions about the threat of unmitigated AI. 

Models such as Anthropic’s Claude Mythos have already been shown to be capable of finding and exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities in major operating systems. 

Professor Ari Juels, IC3 co-director and Chainlink Labs chief scientist, presents the paper at ETHConf. Source: IC3

Meanwhile, Gartner warned in late May that governance failures around autonomous AI agents could trigger widespread enterprise failures, predicting 40% of companies will be forced to decommission their agents by 2027. 

“The harms that could follow from fully autonomous agents of this kind are severe,” the researchers said, suggesting circuit breaker guardrails.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 14:20

U.S. Fertilizer Prices Erase War Spike, But El Nino Keeps Food Inflation Risk Elevated

The good news for US farmers is that urea fertilizer prices have returned to pre-US-Iran conflict levels after spiking from late February through mid-April. This is great news for farmers, though they are not out of the woods, as drought continues to plague some of the nation’s top agricultural belts.

Prices for granular urea in New Orleans have slumped 36% since peaking at $710 per short ton in mid-April. Spot prices are currently $453, back to pre-conflict levels.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts noted that a combination of oversupply and weak demand is pressuring US urea spot prices, which have fallen below those seen in more import-dependent markets such as Brazil and Egypt. The reversal in nitrogen fertilizer prices benefits farmers while also reducing part of the windfall enjoyed by CF Industries and Nutrien.

Shares of CF Industries and Nutrien are both down about 20%, closely tracking urea spot prices.

Urea was among the crop nutrients most affected by the Gulf-area energy shock, with nearly half of global exports originating in the region. There have been concerns about a global food shortage that could emerge later in the year.

Drought concerns still plague top agricultural belts in the US.

Meanwhile, on the otherside of the world:

• UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia

One troubling development in food has been the surge in rice prices, with the regional Asian benchmark rising 20% in May, the largest monthly increase since 2008. It is important to closely monitor global food prices.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 14:00

Mediocre 3Y Auction Tails Despite Solid Buyside Demand

With markets thrown in turmoil following Trump's threat to restart war against Iran in retaliation for downing a US Apache helicopter, it wasn't clear how today's $58 billion 3 year auction would go. In the end, it wasn't great, or terrible: a little tail, but besides that all metrics were relatively solid.  

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.192%, up from 3.965% in May and the highest yield since Feb '25. It tailed the When Issued 4.189% by 0.3bps, the 2nd consecutive tail.

The bid to cover was 2.645, up from 2.540 last month, and above the recent average of 2.614. 

The internals were also solid, with Indirects awarded 63.7%, up from 62.96%, though just below the 6-auction average of 63.87%. Directs were awarded 21.01%, modestly higher than 20.14% last month leaving dealers holding 15.28%, a slight decline from 16.90% last month.

Overall, this was an average auction, with forgettable metrics, which was to be expected in light of the broader market selling that provided a buffer to any lack of buyer demand. It also signaled that despite expectations that tomorrow's CPI will be the first 4%+ print in 4 years, the bond market isn't too worried... yet. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 13:28

New Clues In Apple's iOS 27 Hints At Upcoming Foldable iPhone Launch

Software researcher M1Astra shared with Bloomberg new clues embedded deep within Apple's iOS 27 developer beta that suggest the long-awaited foldable iPhone remains on track for a September debut, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup.

"Apple's iOS 27 and related software updates offer the clearest public signs yet of the company's upcoming foldable iPhone, revealing references to folding hardware and new features designed for larger, more flexible displays," Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman wrote on X, refering to M1Astra's findings that show within iOS 27 developer beta, there are code strings related to determining whether a device is folded or unfolded.

also a new MG key to get the total count of built-in displays pic.twitter.com/0uhik5DWRO

— sam henri gold (@samhenrigold) June 8, 2026

Files inside the first iOS 27 developer beta include references to "foldState," "mechanicalAngleDegrees," and "angleDegrees," suggesting the iOS can detect whether a device is folded, unfolded, or partially opened around a hinge. Other repair-related code mentions a secondary display, a second cover glass, and additional light sensors.

New in macOS 27:

You can now resize iPhone mirroring to look like an iPad display pic.twitter.com/8rVy7aTCYd

— Aaron (@aaronp613) June 8, 2026

The clues come as Bloomberg previously reported that the foldable iPhone remains on track for a September launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup, with pricing expected to start around $2,000. This would be the most important iPhone design shift in the nearly 20-year-old iPhone lineup.

However, Apple is late to the game. The first available foldable smartphone with a flexible display was the Royole FlexPai, announced in October 2018 and shipped in December 2018. By early 2019, Samsung had released the Galaxy Fold, and other brands were launching their foldable models.

On Monday, Apple unveiled Siri AI and the next generation of Apple Intelligence during its Worldwide Developers Conference.

Our coverage:

• Apple's Long-Awaited AI Siri Fails To Impress As Shares Pump Then Dump During WWDC

Goldman analyst Michael Ng has provided clients with the key takeaways from WWDC:

We attended AAPL's WWDC keynote and investor event at Apple Park in Cupertino, CA on June 8th, where the company announced key features for iOS 27, Apple Intelligence, and Siri AI. AAPL was down 1% on the day, in line with AAPL's average day-of WWDC performance, with announcements around Apple Intelligence & Siri AI largely in line with expectations. We viewed the announcements as positive with visibility into Siri AI timing, confidence in the completeness of features, and early signs of monetization through iCloud+ subscriptions and product refresh.

First, Siri AI will be available in beta this fall in English. The keynote and follow-up presentations that we attended were notable in that Siri AI demonstrations all appeared to be utilizing real features (e.g., the presentation we attended included a live demo), suggesting to us that Siri AI features are largely complete and likely will hit key timelines. Second, rate limits should drive monetization opportunities. Some features, including image generation, have daily usage limits because they rely on powerful server models. Users will be able to get increased access through most iCloud+ subscription plans, which should drive direct monetization for Apple Intelligence. Third, the most advanced AI features announced today will require 12GB memory, driving a refresh opportunity. Features including expressive voices and more advanced dictation will require 12GB memory which is included in iPhone Air, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, iPad (M4), and select Mac (M3). We think that will help drive a multi-year product refresh cycle, particularly as AI features continue to improve and demand compounds.

Over time, we view that continued iteration of integrated AI feature releases should (a) support longer-term demand for product offerings via installed base growth and (b) support longer-term Services growth via monetization of new first-party and third-party apps as well as greater iCloud storage demand with greater personal data & content created with AI features.

1. Siri AI & iOS 27 Fall 2026 launch details: iOS 27 will be available in the fall for iPhone 11 and later, with Apple Intelligence available for iPhones 15 Pro/Pro Max and later. Siri AI will be available in beta later this year for users with devices set to English, with support for additional languages expanding over time. Apple noted that Siri AI availability for iOS 27 & iPadOS27 will be delayed in the EU due to the Digital Markets App (DMA). Additionally, Siri AI & other new Apple Intelligence features should be delayed in China as Apple works through regulatory requirements. Separately, AAPL's most powerful on-device AI model and its features (e.g., expressive Siri AI voice, advanced dictation) will be only be available for devices with at least 12 GB of unified memory including the iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max, iPhone Air, iPads M4 & later, and Macs M3 or later.

2. Siri AI features in line with expectations: First, Siri AI will have greater personal context awareness as it draws from on-screen and historical personal data across first-party apps (e.g., Photos, Messages, Mail, Music), third party apps, the web, and Visual Intelligence (via device camera) to inform its answers & action execution for queries & requests. Second, Siri AI will allow users to personalize Siri's voice for pace, as well as expressivity (for devices with at least 12 GB of unified memory). Third, Siri AI will have a dedicated app from which users can recall and continue prior conversations. Fourth, Apple demonstrated Siri AI's ability to engage across a user's complete device ecosystem (e.g., Visual Intelligence identifying nutrition facts for food captured on-camera, splitting bills via receipts, creating an event from a flyer to the Calendar app, identifying the location of a photo posted on social media).

3. New Apple Intelligence features for iOS27 announced, also as expected per our WWDC preview: First, Safari will use Apple Intelligence to (a) create tab groups by topic, (b) monitor and set alerts for changes on internet pages a user wants to track, and (c) create custom extensions via description. Second, Apple Intelligence will introduce suggested actions across apps (e.g., add details from Messages to Reminders, updating meeting details on calendar invite by event description). Third, Apple Intelligence will introduce new photo editing features including (a) the Extend tool (to expand images) and (b) the Reframe tool (to shift the perspective of the camera.

4. Platform improvements to personalize design and improve performance. First, iOS 27 will allow users to adjust the strength of the Liquid Glass display (ultra clear to fully tinted). Second, through improved CPU scheduling, iOS 27 should improve performance across Apple products (e.g,. Apps launching more quickly, faster AirDrop, more seamless transitions from cellular to WiFi networks). Third, users will be able to include Android users within iCloud Shared albums.

Apple shares on Monday wiped out any gains and closed down 1%, in line with the stock's average WWDC-day performance over the years. Shares are lower in cash on Tuesday.

Professional subscribers can read the full Apple WWDC note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 13:20

China's Oil Imports Plummet To Eight-Year Low

Confirming our recent reporting on China's oil demand collapse, crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017 because of the price spike resulting from the Persian Gulf tanker traffic disruption, plunging refinery margins (due to price ceilings imposed by Beijing), of a slowing economy and the rapid slowdown in the economy. 

The May total stood at 33 million barrels, or 7.8 million barrels daily, Bloomberg reported, citing Chinese customs data. This is roughly a 30% drop vs the average daily import rate of 11.6 million barrels last year. As previously noted, refinery run rates are down as well, as are fuel exports, with Beijing careful to make sure there is enough diesel and gasoline for the domestic market. All this is happening as the latest batch of Chinese data was "shockingly bad", promptly fears of a China hard landing.

As OilPrice notes, the news will likely push oil prices lower as China’s reduced appetite for imported crude is widely seen by traders as a cap on international prices. Demand for oil in China, however, has not fallen particularly. The only reason the country’s refiners can afford to slash imports is the substantial inventory cushion available, estimated at over 1 billion barrels, which we said three months ago is the biggest wildcard in the Iran war oil price shock. However, this cushion is not infinite and, as suggested recently by analysts, China will at some point start to ramp up imports.

One relevant question: what is China's pace of SPR drain if any. Recall for the past year Beijing was adding about 500-700K in daily SPR stockpiles; total is said to be ~1.4 billion barrels. China can avoid any Gulf imports for months and drain its SPR instead.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2026

China’s subdued oil buying from abroad “represents one of the largest offsets to the shock, second only to Saudi rerouting flows and larger than coordinated SPR releases from the U.S., Europe, and Japan,” Societe Generale commodity analysts said earlier this week. However, strategic and commercial oil inventories need replenishing at some point, and when that point is reached and the war is still not over, we are likely to see higher oil prices again. In its lenghty weekly note, JPM commodity analysts agreed.

ING commodity analysts made a similar point last week. “Sizeable inventories in the lead-up to the war have provided a buffer for the market,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote on Friday. “This buffer is shrinking with every passing day. With the seasonally stronger summer still ahead of us, we could see demand grow by more than 3m b/d quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. The pace of inventory declines will only intensify through the July-September period.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 12:40

Professors Behind California's Wealth Tax Threaten Possible Legal Action Against Critic

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

There is an interesting controversy brewing in California after four California university professors threatened a political candidate, Richard Lucas, for criticizing them for their roles in the "Billionaire Tax" and sent him a "cease and desist" letter.

David Gamage from the University of Missouri, Brian Galle and Emmanuel Saez from UC Berkeley, and Darien Shanske from UC Davis claimed that the public criticism violated anti-doxxing laws by sharing contact information. They are clearly wrong. One of the aggrieved professors, Brian Galle, teaches at Berkeley Law School called Lucas "a clown," but insisted that sharing public information is unlawful.

Attorney Catha Worthman sent the letter, but has reportedly refused to respond to inquiries after attorneys for the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) pushed back on her legal claims and those of her clients.

I have long been a critic of such wealth taxes, specifically California's Billionaire Tax, as economically moronic and legally questionable. The proposal has already cost the state trillions in lost wealth as wealthy taxpayers have fled, taking their businesses and jobs with them.

As I discuss in Rage and the Republic, these wealth taxes have a terrible track record and, on the federal level, face serious constitutional challenges. In California, the drafters included a retroactive clause that can also be challenged.

One of the four professors - who Lucas referred to as "the looter dream team" - destroyed the claims of many supporters that this is just a one-time tax. Some of us have written that this is simply the first salvo. Once they succeed in targeting billionaires, the same measure will likely be used for those in lower tax brackets.

In a recent debate, Berkeley professor Emmanuel Saez admitted that he could not seriously claim this would be a one-time tax, as many in the public have asserted. He said they would have to wait to see if it passes, but it is likely to be repeated, and noted that there may also be a federal wealth tax on the way.

He said:

"I don't think it's going to be a one-time tax...because you can't surprise billionaires more than once.

Even then, you know, maybe some of them were expecting something like this.

So it's going to be a debate about this time, you know, a permanent wealth tax at a low rate that's going to last for a number of years."

Saez has publicly taunted the wealthy who are fleeing the state:

He noted the move on the left to create a federal wealth tax which has been pushed by Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna.

The legislation, "Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act," echoes the growing "eat-the-rich" mantra on the left - seeking to replicate a disastrous push in California that has led to an exodus from that state and an estimated loss of $2 trillion in taxable assets.

It is also flagrantly unconstitutional.

Under the plan, Congress would target 938 billionaires to tap them for $4.4 trillion. That money would then be redistributed as a $3,000 direct payment to every man, woman, and child in a household making $150,000 or less - $12,000 for a family of four.

Now back to the legal threat. I believe that the threatened legal action is wildly off base. Putting aside the fact that this is protected speech, the two anti-doxing statutes, Penal Code §653.2(a) and Civil Code §1708.89, contain clear scienter or intent requirements.

They must show that Lucas demonstrated an "intent to place another person in reasonable fear for their safety, or the safety of the other person's immediate family." Penal Code §653.2(a); Civil Code §1708.89. There is no evidence of such intent. If simply posting such identifying information is a violation, a significant range of protected speech would be proscribed.

There are ample reasons to criticize this tax and the claims made by its champions. There is a type of self-sustaining pattern on the left in support of such measures. Universities have largely purged conservatives and libertarians from departments, leaving most faculties with professors who run exclusively from the left to the far left.

These professors then added intellectual support for radical proposals like wealth taxes. The media then reports that experts have reviewed and approved the measures. It becomes an entirely closed loop from political groups to academics to media creating a uniform narrative.

The ADF wrote a strong letter pointing out the flaws in the claims of these professors under anti-doxxing laws from the lack of intent to the protection of free speech. These professors became public advocates for this ill-conceived plan and, as a result, have drawn criticism for that advocacy.

Lucas was one of those critics:

First they say the billionaire tax is one time. Now the main architect is already talking about making it permanent.

— Richard Lucas (@dickclucas) May 10, 2026

Nevertheless, the professors sent two cease and desist letters to Lucas, requesting that he remove their names and contact information from his website "California Wealth Exodus." Lucas has remained adamant that he will not remove their contact information.

The site for figures like Galle link to his academic page, as I have done above. We routinely link to such sites for people to look at the background of figures discussed in columns. In the case of Lucas, it is also meant to allow citizens to express their views to those pushing this proposal.

In my view, the threat of legal action is fundamentally flawed and would not prevail in the courts. These professors will need to respond to their critics rather than work to silence them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 12:20

Jefferies: "Turns Out, We Weren't Bullish Enough On Copper"

"Turns out, we weren't bullish enough on copper," Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note to clients, marking a notable shift from one of Wall Street's most seasoned metal voices. LaFemina joined Jefferies in 2011 after more than a decade covering metals and mining at Lehman Brothers and Barclays, lending weight to his view that the explosive growth in AI data center buildouts, power grid and infrastructure upgrades (a theme he calls "powering up America"), and tight supply are creating structurally higher prices for copper.

LaFemina raised his 2030 target and now expects copper to average $8 per pound, or $17,636 a ton. COMEX copper last traded around $6.34 a pound, while LME copper was near $13,583 a ton.

On a longer timeframe, the LME copper chart suggests the $10,000 level was the breakout zone, further supporting LaFemina's 2030 target given the current supply-tightening backdrop.

"Turns out, we weren't bullish enough on copper," LaFemina said, adding, "We now have the highest copper price forecast on the Street as we see strong US industrial demand and still tight supply."

He noted that the data center and power infrastructure buildout should drive a meaningful acceleration in metals demand, with copper and aluminum prices able to rise much higher before weighing on the broader economy.

Goldman recently estimated that AI capital expenditures by hyperscalers will soar to $800 billion this year. The report can be found here.

In recent weeks, Goldman raised its year-end copper price target, and HSBC warned (report found here) that commodities face a "super-squeeze."

HSBC analysts told clients last week that "metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand."

Separately, Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham explained that one of the core issues with the copper market right now is supply:

• Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028.

At the same time, Waltham said stronger-than-expected U.S. copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-U.S. market:

• Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year.

The combination of soft mine supply, U.S. stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts:

• We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610).

She outlined three price scenarios for copper:

1. Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed for Longer: While we would expect limited impact on the global copper balance as the demand hit from lower economic growth is largely offset by lower copper supply due to sulfur shortages, a substantial pullback in global risk appetite could push the LME price down to its fundamental support level at ~$12,600 in H2 2026, before resuming an upward trend.

2. US Copper Tariff Announced for January 2027: If a US copper tariff is announced prospectively in June 2026, to start in January 2027, we would expect US copper imports to accelerate in H2 2026 (vs. our base case of a slowdown in imports), tightening the ex-US balance and raising prices to over $14,000 in H2 2026. However, we would expect prices to retreat in 2027 as imports stop once the tariff is imposed.

3. Announcement of No Copper Tariff: A definitive decision against the tariff would reduce the size of our ex-US deficit forecast in 2026 and push the ex-US market back into surplus in 2027 as imports fall to a negligible level. In this scenario, we would expect the price to fall to an average of $12,800/t in 2027.

View scenarios here:

Beyond Jefferies, HSBC, and Goldman, JPMorgan analysts have also told clients that the copper upcycle is being driven by a tightening supply backdrop, accelerating power-grid investment, AI data center demand, and broader industrial electrification. Taken together, some of Wall Street's top metals desks are increasingly converging on the view that copper is entering a structurally tighter supply regime that will support a sustained break above $14,000 a ton on the LME.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 12:00

Gold & Silver: From Pullback To Perfect Setup

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

With gold and silver having fallen by greater than 20% from their January highs of 2026, some have argued the gold trade is over. In fact, and as explained below, it is only just beginning.

Trading vs. Investing

Such misunderstandings are nothing new, as the difference between precious metal trading and precious metal investing is nothing new.

Nor is there anything new about top-down misinformation and misdirection given to Main Street when it comes to understanding gold and silver.

Traders, both skilled and unskilled, tend to track near-term signals for immediate rates of return (long or short) while longer-term investors typically watch history, debt cycles and currency debasement with patient detachment and a steady eye toward wealth preservation.

Such patience has served the longer-term, wealth-preservation-focused investors with greater returns (and calm) through periods of headline flux and geopolitical gyrations.

Since 2000, gold has outperformed the S&P, and when compared against the major global paper currencies (down 94% since 2000), gold (up 1580% since 2000) has demonstrably outperformed fiat “money.”

Longer-term investors see this larger picture and trend.

They don’t book losses in pullbacks because they understand the greater direction of the precious metal ball in a debt-saturated and hence currency-debasement playing field.

Comfort in Historical Fundamentals

In short, the fundamentals of history, economics and hence currency debasement confirm a clear pattern by desperately broke(n) nations to inflate their way out of debt at the expense of their currencies.

This makes the longer, anti-fiat direction for gold and silver almost too obvious, even in times of inevitable price retracements in the metals.

Historical cycles and longer-term calm, however, are easily forgotten or ignored in times of crisis. Investors somehow think “this time is different,” or, even worse, they don’t think about history at all.

Patterns: From Crisis to Gold Highs

But for those looking for signals, as well as sanity confirmation, it’s worth remembering that in every prior geopolitical and/or oil crisis (the OPEC embargo of 73, the Iranian Revolution of 79, the Gulf War of 91, the 9-11 disaster of 2001 or, more recently, the Ukraine/Russia crisis of 2022) there are clear patterns eerily similar to the current crisis surrounding the Iranian “conflict.”

Specifically, we are living within a template by which a geopolitical crisis sends the oil price up, which is followed by a rise in “inflation expectations,” which in turn means central banks like the Fed can’t cut rates, and soon thereafter the market, rather than central bankers, sets the rates.

This explains why yields on the US 10Y Treasury Bond (the true cost of Uncle Sam’s hideous bar tab) have risen by 75 basis points despite no active rate hikes by a Fed which couldn’t afford rate hikes even if they wanted them.

In this same template, as yields rise, investors typically follow the street’s traditional (yet now grossly mistaken) view that a yielding bond (from a broke issuer) is still better than a yield-less bar of gold.

What typically follows is a herd-like move to bonds whose “positive” nominal yields are measured in increasingly debased currencies and negative real returns when measured against actual rather than mis-reported inflation.

The ironies do abound…

But what fifty years of crisis patterns have also told us—at least for those paying attention—is that gold tends to drop early in every crisis only to then recover at newer all-time-highs as the crisis plays out.

During the 1973 OPEC embargo, for example, gold would dip and then participate in an historical, 4-digit upside in the seven years that followed.

After a temporary retracement during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, gold rose by 90% in one year, and saw double-digit upside within weeks of the 1991 Gulf War.

We saw similar dip-to-high surges in gold following the 9-11 tragedy. And as for the 2022 fiasco in Ukraine, gold broke 2000 not long after the crisis grew from threat to now ongoing reality.

Patterns in Moving Averages

But for those who still feel that history is no guide to future rhyming patterns, let us give equal respect to some of the key technical signals for the metals.

In fact, these signals—most notably from the 200-day moving averages in gold and silver—are themselves just historical signals of a different flavor.

More importantly, they are indicators which signal a rare opportunity in a time of crisis.

Looking at both gold and silver, for example, each metal has fallen below its 200-day moving average.

This is a powerfully bullish rather than bearish signpost.

Silver Signals

The last time silver fell below this average was in April of 2025, just before the metal, then trading at $27, ripped north at historical multiples and new highs.

Prior to 2025, we saw similar bullish signals beneath silver’s 200-day line in 2020 (when silver was at $11) and in 2022 (when silver was at $17).

Gold Signals

Equally bullish technical signals are ringing from gold’s recent dip beneath its 200-day moving average.

The last times we saw gold below this line it was trading in the $1500-$1600 range (2022) or the $1800 range (autumn of 2023). Thereafter, gold went 100% north 12 months out.

From Pullback to Historical Set-Up

Taken together, these fundamental as well as technical signals combine within a current as well as historical context which makes the current pullback in the metals a near perfect set-up rather than break-up for gold and silver.

In fact, current conditions for the precious metals in 2026 are even more favorable than the prior patterns of the 1970’s discussed above.

In 1973, for example, U.S. public debt was in the $500B, not $39T, range. Today, interest expense alone on American IOUs is twice the size of total US public debt in 1973.

Think about that for a second. At debt this high and unsustainable, the debasement trade is no longer a meme; it’s a fat pitch.

The Structural Bid Few Understand

In the 1970’s, moreover, central banks around the world were selling gold. As of this writing, and despite recent forced gold sales out of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, central banks (from Poland to Asia) are net-buyers of gold.

In fact, since the USA weaponized the world reserve currency in 2022, central bank gold purchasing has increased by 5X.

These signals from the world’s central banks are screaming signposts of a structural bid in the metals which most retail investors (who were spooked out of the trade at lows after buying at tops) are tragically missing.

Even the commercial banks have understood the patterns for gold after an oil crisis, and their price targets for the metal remain nearly twice current price levels.

Thus, whether drawing from historical patterns or from moving-day-average signals, the question going forward is simple: Do you trust King Dollar or a “pet rock”? Crowns of gold or crowns of paper?

Time will tell, and time is clearly on the side of precious metals.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:50

US Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Jumped In May, Inventories Surge

With the Spring selling season in tatters, existing home sales were expected to rebound in May very modestly (+1.1% MoM) off recent record lows, but instead they outperformed, rising at 3.2% MoM (and April's 0.2% MoM rise was revised higher to a +0.7% MoM rise). That lifted existing home sales up 3.22% YoY - the strongest since September 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

That beat lifted existing home sales SAAR to its highest level of the year (but not exactly signaling a trend)...

Source: Bloomberg

“More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“This is great news for the housing market and the economy.”

Sellers are giving up some ground on price and “meeting buyers where they are,” Realtor.com said.

In May, the median sales price of an existing home climbed 1.3% from a year ago to $429,300, NAR data show.

Meantime, inventory rose slightly from a year ago to 1.55 million, the highest since July and representing 4.5 months of supply at the current sales pace.

Sales rose in the South, Northeast and Midwest from a month earlier, while they were unchanged in the West. In the Midwest, transactions reached 1 million, the highest pace since April 2023.

First-time buyers accounted for 35% of sales, compared with 33% a month earlier and 30% a year ago.

Finally, it appears home sales are catching up to the prior decline in mortgage rates (but we note that rates have been rising since)...

Source: Bloomberg

“Improving affordability is helping drive this momentum,” Yun said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:11

US Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Jumped In May, Inventories Surge

With the Spring selling season in tatters, existing home sales were expected to rebound in May very modestly (+1.1% MoM) off recent record lows, but instead they outperformed, rising at 3.2% MoM (and April's 0.2% MoM rise was revised higher to a +0.7% MoM rise). That lifted existing home sales up 3.22% YoY - the strongest since September 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

That beat lifted existing home sales SAAR to its highest level of the year (but not exactly signaling a trend)...

Source: Bloomberg

“More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“This is great news for the housing market and the economy.”

Sellers are giving up some ground on price and “meeting buyers where they are,” Realtor.com said.

In May, the median sales price of an existing home climbed 1.3% from a year ago to $429,300, NAR data show.

Meantime, inventory rose slightly from a year ago to 1.55 million, the highest since July and representing 4.5 months of supply at the current sales pace.

Sales rose in the South, Northeast and Midwest from a month earlier, while they were unchanged in the West. In the Midwest, transactions reached 1 million, the highest pace since April 2023.

First-time buyers accounted for 35% of sales, compared with 33% a month earlier and 30% a year ago.

Finally, it appears home sales are catching up to the prior decline in mortgage rates (but we note that rates have been rising since)...

Source: Bloomberg

“Improving affordability is helping drive this momentum,” Yun said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:11

Trump-Netanyahu "Differences": A Good Cop-Bad Cop Routine

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As You Were... But As Who Was? 

Yesterday nearly saw a full restart of the Israel-Iran war, apparently pulled back from the brink by intervention from President Trump. After yet another Middle East rollercoaster for markets it’s now ‘as you were’, with oil --so everything else-- little changed. The larger issue behind that pricing, however, is the key question - ‘As who was?’

Iran set up its proxy network, centered on terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, to protect itself: if Israel attacked it, Hezbollah would attack Israel. However, Tehran now has to attack Israel, with counterattacks on it in response, to defend its ‘shield’. That’s a huge Iranian strategic setback. As such, Tehran is trying to tie Israel vs. Hezbollah to itself vs. the US to divide the US from Israel, which now have different needs: a deal vs. finishing the job militarily or via regime change. That dynamic has huge implications for when and how this war ends, so for energy, so for markets.

While Israel and Iran say they will stop their attacks, Israeli PM Netanyahu last night gave a public address where he stated: “Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever – but our battle against them is still not finished. In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose a new equation upon us… an equation I find intolerable and unacceptable. They thought they would fire at Israel from Lebanese territory and from Iran – and we would not act. That did not happen, and it will not happen. Not on my watch!... At the moment, we are holding our fire, because after we struck the terror regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. In the event that Iran makes the mistake of resuming attacks on us – we will respond with overwhelming force.”

Moreover, Israel will hit Hezbollah in Beirut if it fires at Israel from south Lebanon, which Iran says is a red line that will trigger more attacks on the Jewish state, restarting this war.

If Iran tells Hezbollah to ceasefire, markets can relax;

If not, and Israel hits Hezbollah, Iran has to decide if it wants to fire at Israel - and restart the war;

If Trump forces Israel to hold back vs. Hezbollah, Iran will have linked the two fronts and divided the US and Israel – which likely sees more war.

After all, Israel’s 1948 War of Independence, its 1967 Six-Day War, its 1981 attack on Iraq’s nuclear programme, and its 2007 strike against Syria’s nuclear programme all took place against US wishes. To expect otherwise this time is unwise. Indeed, Trump-Netanyahu differences could be a good cop-bad cop routine to allow the US to push for a deal while Israel does the fighting.

In the background, Yemen’s Houthis claim they will restart a maritime blockade of Israel in the Red Sea, which was applied far more broadly the last time they put it in place. Obviously, that can threaten cargo and energy flows at this juncture, as a US Navy F-18 struck and disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman and the EU hit Iran’s Navy… with sanctions.

In short, this crisis is far from over, even as Trump says “total victory” will be declared in the next two weeks as Iranian negotiators are “willing to give us everything,” and VP Vance added that the deal being discussed was “a home run” for the US. Yet the inside baseball question remains which negotiators the US is talking to given local reports that contact has been lost with Supreme Leader Khamenei Jr. and another that IRGV leader Vahidi was killed in a recent Israeli strike.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, Berlin says the Franco-German fighter jet project is dead, a major blow to future pan-European defence plans; Switzerland is weighing a Franco-Italian alternative to US air defences given a 5-year wait for the latter; and a French fighter jet shot down a suspected Russian drone in Latvian airspace.

That’s as Germany claimed it’s ready to take the reins from the US in talks with Putin despite Russia rejecting Ukrainian and European peace initiatives, saying instead that the battlefield will decide the war – but as Moscow pauses its CCTV systems after Israel hacked Iran’s to target its Supreme Leader. Back in the UK, a secret camera was found in the ceiling panel of the room in a sensitive government building where the decision was made to approve the new Chinese embassy.

Showing how lines on the map can move as the driver of lines on the screen, the US is considering buying the Chagos Islands to take control of the strategic UK airbase on Diego Garcia; Mauritius, whom the UK is controversially trying to hand the islands to, is today demanding they get them ASAP to avoid that outcome.

China’s Xi Jinping, on a state visit, pledged “unwavering” support for North Korea, making some things crystal clear, as Bloomberg publishes its estimates for the economic damage from a war over Taiwan: $10 trillion, apparently. Which justifies or incentivizes doing what as insurance?

In LatAm, Peru is set for lengthy vote count as its presidential race is still too close to call, and Colombia will see a presidential runoff ahead following the leftist Cepeda’s first round election loss.

In geoeconomics, the US added Alibaba, BYD and other Chinese tech champions to its military company blacklist. That’s as Anthropic's Mythos can reportedly now exploit new software flaws in mere hours and OpenAI gets ready for its IPO, Trump is mirroring Bernie Sanders in arguing the state should get stakes in AI giants - and presumably not just in military and security areas but across the economic spectrum. To say we are moving the political-economy Overton Window is an understatement: at this stage are there any actual windows left? Indeed, could the walls and the roof fall in on conventional analysis using conventional wisdom?

The European press talks of how ‘China is killing Europe’s chemicals industry. Brussels wants to intervene’ and France’s Macron is reportedly to court China to get them to address trade imbalances – offering and threatening what exactly?

Indonesia is also weighing export rule exemptions for commodity traders to try to calm local markets after the recent de facto state control of that key area of the economy.

At the same time, Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee was declared an unlawful “tax” by a US judge, as were his tariffs of course, which will now be appealed (was the lower via fee also a tax? If not, why not?).

As you were then… but as who was? And what will we be soon – besides confused?

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:45

Trump-Netanyahu "Differences": A Good Cop-Bad Cop Routine

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As You Were... But As Who Was? 

Yesterday nearly saw a full restart of the Israel-Iran war, apparently pulled back from the brink by intervention from President Trump. After yet another Middle East rollercoaster for markets it’s now ‘as you were’, with oil --so everything else-- little changed. The larger issue behind that pricing, however, is the key question - ‘As who was?’

Iran set up its proxy network, centered on terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, to protect itself: if Israel attacked it, Hezbollah would attack Israel. However, Tehran now has to attack Israel, with counterattacks on it in response, to defend its ‘shield’. That’s a huge Iranian strategic setback. As such, Tehran is trying to tie Israel vs. Hezbollah to itself vs. the US to divide the US from Israel, which now have different needs: a deal vs. finishing the job militarily or via regime change. That dynamic has huge implications for when and how this war ends, so for energy, so for markets.

While Israel and Iran say they will stop their attacks, Israeli PM Netanyahu last night gave a public address where he stated: “Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever – but our battle against them is still not finished. In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose a new equation upon us… an equation I find intolerable and unacceptable. They thought they would fire at Israel from Lebanese territory and from Iran – and we would not act. That did not happen, and it will not happen. Not on my watch!... At the moment, we are holding our fire, because after we struck the terror regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. In the event that Iran makes the mistake of resuming attacks on us – we will respond with overwhelming force.”

Moreover, Israel will hit Hezbollah in Beirut if it fires at Israel from south Lebanon, which Iran says is a red line that will trigger more attacks on the Jewish state, restarting this war.

If Iran tells Hezbollah to ceasefire, markets can relax;

If not, and Israel hits Hezbollah, Iran has to decide if it wants to fire at Israel - and restart the war;

If Trump forces Israel to hold back vs. Hezbollah, Iran will have linked the two fronts and divided the US and Israel – which likely sees more war.

After all, Israel’s 1948 War of Independence, its 1967 Six-Day War, its 1981 attack on Iraq’s nuclear programme, and its 2007 strike against Syria’s nuclear programme all took place against US wishes. To expect otherwise this time is unwise. Indeed, Trump-Netanyahu differences could be a good cop-bad cop routine to allow the US to push for a deal while Israel does the fighting.

In the background, Yemen’s Houthis claim they will restart a maritime blockade of Israel in the Red Sea, which was applied far more broadly the last time they put it in place. Obviously, that can threaten cargo and energy flows at this juncture, as a US Navy F-18 struck and disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman and the EU hit Iran’s Navy… with sanctions.

In short, this crisis is far from over, even as Trump says “total victory” will be declared in the next two weeks as Iranian negotiators are “willing to give us everything,” and VP Vance added that the deal being discussed was “a home run” for the US. Yet the inside baseball question remains which negotiators the US is talking to given local reports that contact has been lost with Supreme Leader Khamenei Jr. and another that IRGV leader Vahidi was killed in a recent Israeli strike.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, Berlin says the Franco-German fighter jet project is dead, a major blow to future pan-European defence plans; Switzerland is weighing a Franco-Italian alternative to US air defences given a 5-year wait for the latter; and a French fighter jet shot down a suspected Russian drone in Latvian airspace.

That’s as Germany claimed it’s ready to take the reins from the US in talks with Putin despite Russia rejecting Ukrainian and European peace initiatives, saying instead that the battlefield will decide the war – but as Moscow pauses its CCTV systems after Israel hacked Iran’s to target its Supreme Leader. Back in the UK, a secret camera was found in the ceiling panel of the room in a sensitive government building where the decision was made to approve the new Chinese embassy.

Showing how lines on the map can move as the driver of lines on the screen, the US is considering buying the Chagos Islands to take control of the strategic UK airbase on Diego Garcia; Mauritius, whom the UK is controversially trying to hand the islands to, is today demanding they get them ASAP to avoid that outcome.

China’s Xi Jinping, on a state visit, pledged “unwavering” support for North Korea, making some things crystal clear, as Bloomberg publishes its estimates for the economic damage from a war over Taiwan: $10 trillion, apparently. Which justifies or incentivizes doing what as insurance?

In LatAm, Peru is set for lengthy vote count as its presidential race is still too close to call, and Colombia will see a presidential runoff ahead following the leftist Cepeda’s first round election loss.

In geoeconomics, the US added Alibaba, BYD and other Chinese tech champions to its military company blacklist. That’s as Anthropic's Mythos can reportedly now exploit new software flaws in mere hours and OpenAI gets ready for its IPO, Trump is mirroring Bernie Sanders in arguing the state should get stakes in AI giants - and presumably not just in military and security areas but across the economic spectrum. To say we are moving the political-economy Overton Window is an understatement: at this stage are there any actual windows left? Indeed, could the walls and the roof fall in on conventional analysis using conventional wisdom?

The European press talks of how ‘China is killing Europe’s chemicals industry. Brussels wants to intervene’ and France’s Macron is reportedly to court China to get them to address trade imbalances – offering and threatening what exactly?

Indonesia is also weighing export rule exemptions for commodity traders to try to calm local markets after the recent de facto state control of that key area of the economy.

At the same time, Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee was declared an unlawful “tax” by a US judge, as were his tariffs of course, which will now be appealed (was the lower via fee also a tax? If not, why not?).

As you were then… but as who was? And what will we be soon – besides confused?

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:45