From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 14th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, a slight decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.8 percent to 4.9 percent. [November 21st estimate]

Swalwell Announces Run For California Governor Amid Probe Into Alleged Mortgage Fraud

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) announced Thursday night that he will run for California governor in 2026, joining an already-packed field of Democratic candidates vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom when his term ends. 

California Rep. Eric Swalwell speaks during a House Judiciary Committee in September. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

Appearing on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!", Swalwell - a seven-term member of Congress and key figure behind the congressional push to impeach President Donald Trump during his first term, said that Trump is "not going to like this show," before slamming the president and his administration for several minutes.

"What are we going to do? How do you stop this?" asked Kimmel.

"I’ll tell you what I’m going to do. I love California ... that’s why it pisses me off to see Californians running through the fields where they work from ICE agents, or troops in our streets. It’s horrifying. Or cancer research being cut," Swalwell replied.

"Our state, this great state, needs a fighter and a protector, someone who will bring prices down, lift wages up. I came here tonight, Jimmy, to tell you and your audience that I’m running to be the next governor of California."

Swalwell said in a statement that he's running for governor because "prices are too high and people are scared," adding that the state is "under attack" from federal actions ranging from law enforcement deployments to funding cuts and - of course, immigration actions. 

As Politico frames it, "His decision to enter the race late in the year — when other candidates have had as much as a year’s head start — is the latest sign of an unsettled Democratic field in the race to succeed Gavin Newsom, with no decisive frontrunner."

The leading Democrat, Katie Porter, has been hobbled by unflattering viral videos, while former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa have struggled to break into double-digits in the polls. The other contenders — state schools chief Tony Thurmond, former state controller Betty Yee, entrepreneur Stephen J. Cloobeck and former assemblymember Ian Calderon — have failed to break out from the bottom of the pack.

Other potential entrants to the race include a pair of billionaire entrepreneurs — Tom Steyer and Rick Caruso — while some Sacramento players have encouraged Attorney General Rob Bonta to take another look at the race.

The outlet also notes that "Swalwell has also become an object of derision on the right, where his detractors are quick to point out his previous ties to a Chinese spy who sought to influence American politicians. Swalwell has said he cooperated with the FBI when he was alerted to her work for the Chinese government and that he immediately cut off contact."

Ongoing Investigation

Swalwell's announcement comes roughly a week after Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte referred him to the DOJ for criminal prosecution over alleged mortgage fraud - becoming the fourth Democratic official to face mortgage fraud allegations in recent months.

In a letter to AG Pam Bondi earlier this month, FHFA director Bill Pulte said that Swalwell may have made false or misleading statements in loan documents.

Pulte alleges that Swalwell has several million dollars worth of loans and refinancing based on him declaring his primary residence as Washington, and has called for an investigation into mortgage fraud, state and local tax fraud, insurance fraud, and any related crimes. 

The next day, Swalwell lashed out - saying in a statement "As the most vocal critic of Donald Trump over the last decade and as the only person who still has a surviving lawsuit against him, the only thing I am surprised about is that it took him this long to come after me," adding "Like James Comey and John Bolton, Adam Schiff and Lisa Cook, Letitia James and the dozens more to come — I refuse to live in fear in what was once the freest country in the world."

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 10:45

Trump To Meet With Mamdani At The White House

Authored by Arjun Singh and Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump will meet New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani at the White House today.

“Communist Mayor of New York City, Zohran ‘Kwame’ Mamdani, has asked for a meeting. We have agreed that this meeting will take place at the Oval Office on Friday, November 21st,” Trump announced on Truth Social.

Mamdani, the self-described democratic socialist whose campaign to run America’s most populous city drew national attention, is set to take office on Jan. 1, 2026. The mayor-elect has already sparred publicly with Trump, who has threatened to reduce federal funding to the city.

Mamdani commented on the planned meeting during a Nov. 20 press conference, describing it as “customary.”

“I will be heading to Washington, D.C., tomorrow to meet with President Trump in the White House,” Mamdani told reporters.

Mamdani said the meeting is “more critical than ever given the national crisis of affordability, one that New Yorkers know very well across these five boroughs, and the specific challenge many cities are facing with balancing public safety against steps taken by [the Trump] administration.”

Mamdani said his team arranged the meeting.

“The mayor-elect will be coming to the Oval Office, so our teams are arranging those details,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Nov. 20 when asked about the upcoming meeting.

Mamdani and Trump, who are both from Queens, have spent months publicly criticizing each other, ever since Mamdani defeated former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for the Democratic nomination.

Trump has repeatedly called Mamdani a “communist” due to his professed affinity for democratic socialism, and threatened to withhold federal funds from the city’s government if Mamdani seeks to implement some of his campaign promises.

Mamdani, by contrast, has attacked Trump’s nationalist, populist, and conservative initiatives during his second term, such as his effort to remove illegal immigrants from the United States.

During his campaign, Mamdani vowed to use city resources to provide legal counsel to foreign nationals facing deportation.

When asked whether there was anything Mamdani could do to calm Trump’s concerns, Leavitt declined to answer.

“I won’t get into the president’s thinking on it. I think you'll all hear from him directly,” she said.

Once he takes office, Mamdani will be among the highest-profile elected officials in the United States as the leader of a city that’s home to more than 8 million people, America’s wealthiest city by GDP.

The job has often been described by occupants as being the “second toughest job in America,” behind only the U.S. presidency.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 10:25

UMich Consumer Current Conditions Hit A Record (48 Year) Low

The weakness from the preliminary UMich data for November has been confirmed with the final sentiment print confirmed the so-called 'K-shaped' economy as sentiment slumps with stocks near record highs.

However, the small silver lining with today's UMich data was an improvement intra-month from 50.3 to 51.0 for the headline (but still at its lowest since June 2022).

After the federal shutdown ended, UMich Director Joanne Hsu notes that sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading.

However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.

Under the hood, Expectations picked up modestly from 50.3 to 51.0, just off record lows, while Current Conditions plunged to 51.1 - the lowest in the survey's history going back to 1977...

Source: Bloomberg

Who the hell are they surveying?

Interestingly, while Democrat's confidence remains vastly worse than the rest of the political cohorts, November saw Republicans and Independents lose some faith too...

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, inflation expectations tumbled. After four months of sharp increases to start 2025, long-run expectations fell for three consecutive months through July, followed by three more months of small increases. Long-run expectations softened considerably this month. The November reading is well below peaks in monthly readings from June 2022 and April 2025, but still above 2024 readings.

Source: Bloomberg

Expectations exhibit substantial uncertainty, particularly in light of ongoing developments with economic policy and concerns that impacts on inflation are still to come.

Democrats continue to lead the fear of inflation (though dropped to January lows this month)...

However, this month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%...

and young and old alike are worried about their jobs...

By the end of the month, sentiment for consumers with the largest stock holdings lost the gains seen at the preliminary reading.

This group’s sentiment dropped about 2 index points from October, likely a consequence of the stock market declines seen over the past two weeks.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 10:15

UMich Consumer Current Conditions Hit A Record (48 Year) Low

The weakness from the preliminary UMich data for November has been confirmed with the final sentiment print confirmed the so-called 'K-shaped' economy as sentiment slumps with stocks near record highs.

However, the small silver lining with today's UMich data was an improvement intra-month from 50.3 to 51.0 for the headline (but still at its lowest since June 2022).

After the federal shutdown ended, UMich Director Joanne Hsu notes that sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading.

However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.

Under the hood, Expectations picked up modestly from 50.3 to 51.0, just off record lows, while Current Conditions plunged to 51.1 - the lowest in the survey's history going back to 1977...

Source: Bloomberg

Who the hell are they surveying?

Interestingly, while Democrat's confidence remains vastly worse than the rest of the political cohorts, November saw Republicans and Independents lose some faith too...

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, inflation expectations tumbled. After four months of sharp increases to start 2025, long-run expectations fell for three consecutive months through July, followed by three more months of small increases. Long-run expectations softened considerably this month. The November reading is well below peaks in monthly readings from June 2022 and April 2025, but still above 2024 readings.

Source: Bloomberg

Expectations exhibit substantial uncertainty, particularly in light of ongoing developments with economic policy and concerns that impacts on inflation are still to come.

Democrats continue to lead the fear of inflation (though dropped to January lows this month)...

However, this month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%...

and young and old alike are worried about their jobs...

By the end of the month, sentiment for consumers with the largest stock holdings lost the gains seen at the preliminary reading.

This group’s sentiment dropped about 2 index points from October, likely a consequence of the stock market declines seen over the past two weeks.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 10:15

Don't Fight The Fed... But Is China Worth A Shot?

By Daniel Moss, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter 

The idea of taking out insurance against worst-case scenarios, mostly by cutting interest rates, became a popular choice among the world’s big central banks over the past quarter century. Beijing has shunned this doctrine lately. It may come with a price.

The People's Bank of China recently downplayed concerns that the world’s second-largest economy is in trouble. The PBOC’s latest quarterly statement emphasized long-term prospects and discouraged investors from focusing on what it sees as merely short-term hurdles. Translation: Rein in those bets on rate cuts. Goldman Sachs was among those that got the message, pushing back its forecast for the next reduction to the first quarter of 2026. Other large institutions, including Citigroup Inc., had already thrown in the towel.

It’s natural that firms adjust projections to reflect what central banks are saying, as opposed to relying entirely on data for guidance. It has long been an article of faith in finance that you don’t fight the Federal Reserve. It has too much firepower and, if officials want markets to see things their way, they can jolt traders through words and deeds.

And while the PBOC can’t shake the global economy in quite the same way, and doesn’t have the same independence as the Fed, its sway is significant. If Beijing is hinting that it’s not inclined to crank up the expansion, it would be brave to dismiss that signal.

Would it be entirely wrong, though? Central banks do make mistakes, sometimes big ones. The Fed’s famous dot-plot projected four hikes in both 2015 and 2016. It delivered one in each of those years. The European Central Bank lifted borrowing costs shortly before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed, and the PBOC itself botched an effort to revalue the yuan in 2015. And during the pandemic, the Reserve Bank of Australia vowed to control bond yields, until markets forced a capitulation.    

China’s economy hasn’t fallen apart, but nor is it buoyant. After a solid start, progress has been disappointing. Industrial production has slowed, and investment has declined. Retail sales could be better. Exports unexpectedly shrank in October, and credit growth was the least in more than a year. Deflationary pressure persists. Bonds are sending a dour signal: The yield on China’s 10-year treasury is hovering near the lowest in two months.  

Thanks to a decent first quarter, China will likely achieve the 5% annual growth target set by President Xi Jinping. That might discourage the need to act quickly to crank up the expansion, as might the desire to keep some ammunition in case the trade war with the US intensifies and takes a greater toll on the economy. Faced with a similarly tepid picture and anemic inflation, however, the Fed has a record of staying ahead of the curve. 

Risk management — the practice of making policy a bit easier than might be justified by conditions — was pioneered by Alan Greenspan and deployed by each of his three successors. It was revolutionary when the Fed first began this approach in the late 1990s, and was used more forcefully in 2003 when officials were starting to get really worried about the prospect of deflation in the US. When the Fed cut rates in September, Chair Jerome Powell framed the step in a similar way. “The projections for growth this year and next actually ticked up just a little bit,” he told reporters. “What’s different is now you are see a very different picture of risks … it’s time to take that into account in our policy.” 

It has been a tough year for PBOC watchers. Twelve months ago, China’s leaders signaled active support for the economy. The decision-making Politburo, to which the People’s Bank ultimately answers, vowed to implement “moderately loose” policy in 2025. That was trumpeted as a marked shift from the “prudent” approach that dominated for more than a decade. Wall Street forecast a wave of rate cuts and a notable relaxation of reserve requirements at big lenders. That confidence proved wide of the mark. Instead of a pronounced easing, the PBOC delivered only a single 10-basis point trim to the main rate. That was in May; there's been nothing since.

It’s true that monetary policy won’t solve all China’s ills. If PBOC chief Pan Gongsheng wants to go all out in a bid to banish deflation, it will likely require more than taking the price of money down a few notches. The seven-day repurchase rate, the main policy rate, stands at 1.4%. Once it gets below 1%, what happens next? The PBOC’s peers have found it difficult to extricate themselves from quantitative easing, and other unconventional measures. If Pan reckons the economy will muddle through, then hunkering down is understandable. It can also look indecisive. 

The PBOC fancies itself as playing a long game. Let's hope it’s right and the world economy, let alone China’s, doesn't pay for an abundance of caution. Looking beyond the horizon has merit, but possesses its own dangers. Insurance shouldn't be frowned upon.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 10:05

'Soft' Survey Data Shows Services Strong, Manufacturing Weak In Nov

As official US macro 'hard' data starts to creep out from Washington, we get more private 'soft' survey data this morning (for preliminary November period) and it is 'mixed' for want of a better word.

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.5 to 51.9 (worse than the 52.0 expected) - 4 month low

• S&P Global US Services PMI rose from 54.8 to 55.0 (better than the 54.6 expected) - 4 month high

This mixed bag comes in the face of 'strong' hard data...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline S&P Global US PMI® Composite Output Index rose for a second successive month in November, up from 54.6 in October to 54.8, according to the 'flash' reading (based on about 85% of usual survey responses).

The latest reading is the highest since July, signaling an acceleration of growth over the fourth quarter so far.

Output has now grown continually for 34 months.

“The flash PMI data point to a relatively buoyant US economy in November, signalling annualised GDP growth of about 2.5% so far in the fourth quarter.," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"The upturn also looks encouragingly broad-based for now, with output rising across both manufacturing and the vast services economy."

Rate-cuts and optimism:

“A marked uplift in business confidence about prospects in the year ahead adds to the good news.

Hopes for further interest rate cuts and the ending of the government shutdown have boosted optimism alongside a broader undercurrent of improved economic optimism and reduced concerns over the political environment."

Jobs vs Inflation:

“Furthermore, although jobs continued to be created in November, the rate of hiring continues to be constrained by worries over costs, in turn linked to tariffs.

Both input costs and selling prices rose at increased rates in November, which will be of concern to the inflation hawks.”

However, Williamson notes that manufacturers reported a worrying combination of slower new orders growth and a record rise in finished goods stock noting that "this accumulation of unsold inventory hints at slower factory production expansion in the coming months unless demand revives, which could in turn feed through to lower growth in many service industries."

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 09:55

'Soft' Survey Data Shows Services Strong, Manufacturing Weak In Nov

As official US macro 'hard' data starts to creep out from Washington, we get more private 'soft' survey data this morning (for preliminary November period) and it is 'mixed' for want of a better word.

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.5 to 51.9 (worse than the 52.0 expected) - 4 month low

• S&P Global US Services PMI rose from 54.8 to 55.0 (better than the 54.6 expected) - 4 month high

This mixed bag comes in the face of 'strong' hard data...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline S&P Global US PMI® Composite Output Index rose for a second successive month in November, up from 54.6 in October to 54.8, according to the 'flash' reading (based on about 85% of usual survey responses).

The latest reading is the highest since July, signaling an acceleration of growth over the fourth quarter so far.

Output has now grown continually for 34 months.

“The flash PMI data point to a relatively buoyant US economy in November, signalling annualised GDP growth of about 2.5% so far in the fourth quarter.," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"The upturn also looks encouragingly broad-based for now, with output rising across both manufacturing and the vast services economy."

Rate-cuts and optimism:

“A marked uplift in business confidence about prospects in the year ahead adds to the good news.

Hopes for further interest rate cuts and the ending of the government shutdown have boosted optimism alongside a broader undercurrent of improved economic optimism and reduced concerns over the political environment."

Jobs vs Inflation:

“Furthermore, although jobs continued to be created in November, the rate of hiring continues to be constrained by worries over costs, in turn linked to tariffs.

Both input costs and selling prices rose at increased rates in November, which will be of concern to the inflation hawks.”

However, Williamson notes that manufacturers reported a worrying combination of slower new orders growth and a record rise in finished goods stock noting that "this accumulation of unsold inventory hints at slower factory production expansion in the coming months unless demand revives, which could in turn feed through to lower growth in many service industries."

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 09:55

Amazon Sending $1.5 Billion In Automatic Refunds To Customers: 4 Things To Know

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Amazon has started sending emails and paying out up to $1.5 billion in automatic refunds to Prime customers who may be impacted by a recent settlement, according to an update from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Monday.

Amazon packages are transported by conveyor belts inside of an Amazon fulfillment center on Cyber Monday in Robbinsville, N.J., on Dec. 2, 2019. Lucas Jackson/Reuters

In late September, the FTC secured a $2.5 billion settlement with Amazon to resolve the agency’s claims that the online retail giant had enrolled millions of customers into Prime subscriptions without their consent. The settlement also resolved charges that Amazon intentionally made it more difficult for people to cancel their Prime subscriptions.

1. When and How Much?

Amazon began providing automatic refunds to its Prime customers on Nov. 12 and will continue doing so until Dec. 24 of this year, the FTC said. People who are eligible to get an automatic refund should receive an email between those two dates.

“You can get your refund by PayPal or Venmo,” the FTC’s website also said, directing people to “please accept” the refund within 15 days of getting the email.

Eligible Prime customers will get a refund up to a maximum of $51 under the settlement for their Amazon Prime subscription fees, the FTC also said.

People who want a check are advised to ignore the Amazon email, the agency said. Once they don’t claim a Venmo or PayPal payment through the email, Amazon will send a check to their default Amazon Prime shipping address.

Customers who opt for a check are advised to “please cash it within 60 days,” according to the website.

2. Who Is Eligible?

People may get an automatic refund from the company if they meet three requirements: They are an Amazon Prime customer inside the United States; they signed up for a Prime subscription via one of its enrollment processes that were the subject of the FTC’s allegations between June 23, 2019, and June 23, 2025; and they used no more than three Prime benefits such as Prime Video or Prime Music in a 12-month period after they signed up for the Amazon service.

The applicable enrollment processes include “the universal Prime decision page, shipping selection page, single page checkout, or the Prime Video enrollment flow,” according to the FTC site.

3. What Happens If No Refund Is Sent?

Starting next year, Amazon will start a separate claims process for Prime customers who did not receive the automatic refund between Nov. 12 and Dec. 24 of this year. The FTC and Amazon will issue an update on the FTC enforcement page with updated details.

The FTC also suggested that customers should be wary of possible scams, noting that it won’t ask people to pay to receive their refund.

“Don’t pay anyone who promises you a refund in exchange for a fee. And don’t give personal information to anyone who contacts you promising a refund,” the site said.

The FTC website containing the message did not include a date but an Epoch Times review of page metadata shows it was last updated on Monday, Nov. 17.

4. What Did the Settlement Entail?

Amazon in September agreed to pay $2.5 billion in fines and reimbursements to Prime subscribers, while roughly 35 million Prime customers are eligible for payouts from a $1.5 billion fund, according to the FTC. Amazon will separately pay $1 billion in fines and civil penalties to the FTC.

The company did not admit wrongdoing as part of the settlement.

“We work incredibly hard to make it clear and simple for customers to both sign up or cancel their Prime membership, and to offer substantial value for our many millions of loyal Prime members around the world,” Amazon said in a statement.

As part of the settlement, Amazon also agreed to create a “clear and conspicuous” button to allow customers to decline a Prime subscription, and to make it easier to cancel a membership. Amazon has also agreed to more clearly disclose the terms of a subscription during enrollment and to pay an independent supervisor to monitor compliance.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 09:05

Amazon Sending $1.5 Billion In Automatic Refunds To Customers: 4 Things To Know

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Amazon has started sending emails and paying out up to $1.5 billion in automatic refunds to Prime customers who may be impacted by a recent settlement, according to an update from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Monday.

Amazon packages are transported by conveyor belts inside of an Amazon fulfillment center on Cyber Monday in Robbinsville, N.J., on Dec. 2, 2019. Lucas Jackson/Reuters

In late September, the FTC secured a $2.5 billion settlement with Amazon to resolve the agency’s claims that the online retail giant had enrolled millions of customers into Prime subscriptions without their consent. The settlement also resolved charges that Amazon intentionally made it more difficult for people to cancel their Prime subscriptions.

1. When and How Much?

Amazon began providing automatic refunds to its Prime customers on Nov. 12 and will continue doing so until Dec. 24 of this year, the FTC said. People who are eligible to get an automatic refund should receive an email between those two dates.

“You can get your refund by PayPal or Venmo,” the FTC’s website also said, directing people to “please accept” the refund within 15 days of getting the email.

Eligible Prime customers will get a refund up to a maximum of $51 under the settlement for their Amazon Prime subscription fees, the FTC also said.

People who want a check are advised to ignore the Amazon email, the agency said. Once they don’t claim a Venmo or PayPal payment through the email, Amazon will send a check to their default Amazon Prime shipping address.

Customers who opt for a check are advised to “please cash it within 60 days,” according to the website.

2. Who Is Eligible?

People may get an automatic refund from the company if they meet three requirements: They are an Amazon Prime customer inside the United States; they signed up for a Prime subscription via one of its enrollment processes that were the subject of the FTC’s allegations between June 23, 2019, and June 23, 2025; and they used no more than three Prime benefits such as Prime Video or Prime Music in a 12-month period after they signed up for the Amazon service.

The applicable enrollment processes include “the universal Prime decision page, shipping selection page, single page checkout, or the Prime Video enrollment flow,” according to the FTC site.

3. What Happens If No Refund Is Sent?

Starting next year, Amazon will start a separate claims process for Prime customers who did not receive the automatic refund between Nov. 12 and Dec. 24 of this year. The FTC and Amazon will issue an update on the FTC enforcement page with updated details.

The FTC also suggested that customers should be wary of possible scams, noting that it won’t ask people to pay to receive their refund.

“Don’t pay anyone who promises you a refund in exchange for a fee. And don’t give personal information to anyone who contacts you promising a refund,” the site said.

The FTC website containing the message did not include a date but an Epoch Times review of page metadata shows it was last updated on Monday, Nov. 17.

4. What Did the Settlement Entail?

Amazon in September agreed to pay $2.5 billion in fines and reimbursements to Prime subscribers, while roughly 35 million Prime customers are eligible for payouts from a $1.5 billion fund, according to the FTC. Amazon will separately pay $1 billion in fines and civil penalties to the FTC.

The company did not admit wrongdoing as part of the settlement.

“We work incredibly hard to make it clear and simple for customers to both sign up or cancel their Prime membership, and to offer substantial value for our many millions of loyal Prime members around the world,” Amazon said in a statement.

As part of the settlement, Amazon also agreed to create a “clear and conspicuous” button to allow customers to decline a Prime subscription, and to make it easier to cancel a membership. Amazon has also agreed to more clearly disclose the terms of a subscription during enrollment and to pay an independent supervisor to monitor compliance.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 09:05

Ukraine & Europe Reject Trump's Russia Peace Plan, Prepare Emergency Call

By all estimates, this is the first ever US-proposed peace plan which actually demands major concessions from Ukraine, but it also seeks to provide assurances for Kiev's future protection modelled on NATO article five, according to Axios.

Among President Zelensky's top objectives has long been to obtain a robust US and European security guarantee, and this new 28-point plan appears to give just that:

President Trump's peace plan for Ukraine includes a security guarantee modeled on NATO's Article 5, which would commit the U.S. and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire "transatlantic community," - writes Axios.

AFP/Getty Images

Such a pledge could be recipe for future war, however, and that's precisely how Moscow might see it, especially if other pressing issues of territory or military NATOization on Russia's doorstep aren't resolved. The security guarantee would be for up to a decade and could be renewed, according to the draft.

There are also reports that the US is already advancing a very ambitious timeline - that it wants to see the plan signed by Thanksgiving, or as soon as next week.

There are even lines for signatures on the document, indicating places for Ukraine, Russia the US, and even NATO and the EU. It's unclear just which representatives would sign from each country or bloc, and its as yet unclear whether Putin himself must sign.

A senior Kremlin official cited in Axios said he was "optimistic" about the plan’s prospects, arguing that it aligns more closely with Moscow's views than previous diplomatic efforts. This is especially as a large portion of the Donbas will be recognized as under Russia's control, and the size and capability of the Ukrainian army will be scaled back, which a commitment to no foreign troops on Ukrainian soil as well.

And yet, as predicted by many, Ukraine and its European backers stand ready to rejected the plan - though it's still only in its draft form and hasn't been seriously negotiated over by the warring sides. Newsweek reports:

European leaders are preparing an emergency call to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal to end the war in Ukraine.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz cancelled a scheduled appearance to join the discussion, which will also include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron.

The 28‑point plan caught European capitals off guard. Leaders were not directly involved in the U.S. effort and learned the details only after the document was made public.

Indeed Ukraine wasn't involved either, and the emerging complaint is that it too closely resembles earlier Russian talking points and proposals for ending the war.

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said Thursday, "We have always supported a lasting and just peace, and we welcome any efforts to achieve it, but for any plan to work, Ukrainians and Europeans are needed."

In response to the risk of peace breaking out with the US-Russia peace plan - Germany speaks of supplying long-range fire, Britain wants to send troops, and the EU expresses its opposition. pic.twitter.com/nSfNjTHD0x

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) November 21, 2025

She went on to indicate her view that nothing fundamental has changed. "In this war there is one aggressor and one victim," she said. "If Russia really wanted peace, it could have agreed to an unconditional ceasefire some time ago," she added.

So far Ukraine has only signaled a vague 'openness' to examining the US plan: "The President of Ukraine outlined the fundamental principles that matter to our people, and following today’s meeting, the parties agreed to work on the plan’s provisions in a way that would bring about a just end to the war," the Ukrainian presidential office has said. 

In the meantime, European leaders are making their objections known one by one, and roadblocks are fast being erected...

All the decisions concerning Poland will be taken by Poles. Nothing about us without us. When it comes to peace, all the negotiations should include Ukraine. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) November 21, 2025

Below is the US-Russia 28-point plan in full, as has been widely circulated in international reports:

* * *

1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.

3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.

4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

10. The U.S. guarantee:

• The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee;
• If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee;
• If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked;
• If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.

12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:

• The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence.
• The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
• Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas.
• Infrastructure development.
• Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
• The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

• The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
• The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
• Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.

14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

• $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
• The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.

15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.

16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.

17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.

18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.

20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:

• Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
• Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.
• All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.

21. Territories:

• Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
• Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
• Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
• Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.

22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.

23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

• All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an 'all for all' basis.
• All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.
• A family reunification program will be implemented.
• Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.

25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.

26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 08:35

Ukraine & Europe Reject Trump's Russia Peace Plan, Prepare Emergency Call

By all estimates, this is the first ever US-proposed peace plan which actually demands major concessions from Ukraine, but it also seeks to provide assurances for Kiev's future protection modelled on NATO article five, according to Axios.

Among President Zelensky's top objectives has long been to obtain a robust US and European security guarantee, and this new 28-point plan appears to give just that:

President Trump's peace plan for Ukraine includes a security guarantee modeled on NATO's Article 5, which would commit the U.S. and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire "transatlantic community," - writes Axios.

AFP/Getty Images

Such a pledge could be recipe for future war, however, and that's precisely how Moscow might see it, especially if other pressing issues of territory or military NATOization on Russia's doorstep aren't resolved. The security guarantee would be for up to a decade and could be renewed, according to the draft.

There are also reports that the US is already advancing a very ambitious timeline - that it wants to see the plan signed by Thanksgiving, or as soon as next week.

There are even lines for signatures on the document, indicating places for Ukraine, Russia the US, and even NATO and the EU. It's unclear just which representatives would sign from each country or bloc, and its as yet unclear whether Putin himself must sign.

A senior Kremlin official cited in Axios said he was "optimistic" about the plan’s prospects, arguing that it aligns more closely with Moscow's views than previous diplomatic efforts. This is especially as a large portion of the Donbas will be recognized as under Russia's control, and the size and capability of the Ukrainian army will be scaled back, which a commitment to no foreign troops on Ukrainian soil as well.

And yet, as predicted by many, Ukraine and its European backers stand ready to rejected the plan - though it's still only in its draft form and hasn't been seriously negotiated over by the warring sides. Newsweek reports:

European leaders are preparing an emergency call to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal to end the war in Ukraine.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz cancelled a scheduled appearance to join the discussion, which will also include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron.

The 28‑point plan caught European capitals off guard. Leaders were not directly involved in the U.S. effort and learned the details only after the document was made public.

Indeed Ukraine wasn't involved either, and the emerging complaint is that it too closely resembles earlier Russian talking points and proposals for ending the war.

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said Thursday, "We have always supported a lasting and just peace, and we welcome any efforts to achieve it, but for any plan to work, Ukrainians and Europeans are needed."

In response to the risk of peace breaking out with the US-Russia peace plan - Germany speaks of supplying long-range fire, Britain wants to send troops, and the EU expresses its opposition. pic.twitter.com/nSfNjTHD0x

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) November 21, 2025

She went on to indicate her view that nothing fundamental has changed. "In this war there is one aggressor and one victim," she said. "If Russia really wanted peace, it could have agreed to an unconditional ceasefire some time ago," she added.

So far Ukraine has only signaled a vague 'openness' to examining the US plan: "The President of Ukraine outlined the fundamental principles that matter to our people, and following today’s meeting, the parties agreed to work on the plan’s provisions in a way that would bring about a just end to the war," the Ukrainian presidential office has said. 

In the meantime, European leaders are making their objections known one by one, and roadblocks are fast being erected...

All the decisions concerning Poland will be taken by Poles. Nothing about us without us. When it comes to peace, all the negotiations should include Ukraine. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) November 21, 2025

Below is the US-Russia 28-point plan in full, as has been widely circulated in international reports:

* * *

1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.

3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.

4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

10. The U.S. guarantee:

• The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee;
• If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee;
• If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked;
• If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.

12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:

• The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence.
• The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
• Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas.
• Infrastructure development.
• Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
• The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

• The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
• The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
• Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.

14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

• $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
• The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.

15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.

16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.

17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.

18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.

20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:

• Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
• Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.
• All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.

21. Territories:

• Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
• Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
• Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
• Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.

22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.

23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

• All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an 'all for all' basis.
• All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.
• A family reunification program will be implemented.
• Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.

25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.

26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 08:35

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Nov. 15, 2025)

• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 12.6% year-over-year, as the streak of annual gains stretched past two years in length. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 29th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing due to both new listings hitting the market, but mostly listings taking longer to sell in this weak 2025 sales year.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.7% year over year

New listings edged up on an annual basis, the second straight week of gains and a return to more typical levels after last week’s surge. Mortgage rates held in the low 6.2s range last week the low-6% range, which may be enticing some homeowners to make a move.

• The median listing price fell 0.4% year-over-year

he median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 1.0% year-over-year, dropping for the 11th consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

US & Qatar Force EU Climate Policy U-Turn – End of the ESG Era?

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

While former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock calls for a fight against climate-driven global apocalypse at COP30, Brussels is being forced into political restraint by pressure from the US and Qatar. On the horizon, the end of the EU’s grand climate machinations is becoming visible.

November 13, 2025, could mark a turning point in European Union history. We may have witnessed the beginning of the end of European climate socialism. 

Media coverage of the day in Parliament downplayed its significance, focusing instead on the reform of the supply chain law, while fundamental changes unfolded at a different level.

Politically, the event cannot be overstated; perhaps it should even be called a singularity in recent EU policy: The European Parliament paved the way for a dramatic dilution of corporate reporting obligations under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the so-called due diligence rules (CSDDD). The unstoppable march toward a climate dictatorship has been abruptly halted.

The End of the ESG Machine

Advocates of the ESG doctrine—under which private industry is forced by lawmakers to integrate party-circulated environmental and social standards into corporate governance—suffered their first major setback. Reporting and due diligence obligations for companies have been so weakened that previously required climate-aligned transition plans at the corporate level are now eliminated. Responsibility for violations of the remaining rules now rests with national authorities, not Brussels, freeing multinational supply chains from massive oversight. The economy can, to some extent, escape the regulators’ grip—good news.

For companies in the fossil energy sector, new market incentives emerge: exports to Europe can be conducted more easily, as regulatory hurdles are lowered and bureaucratic reporting requirements drastically reduced. Overall, the adjustment allows companies greater flexibility in supply chains, reduces the compulsion to invest in renewable or CO₂-neutral projects, and makes European markets more attractive to fossil energy exporters.

Reality Check

The EU Commission has recently faced mounting pressure from both Washington and the key LNG supplier, Qatar. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick had months earlier called on US companies to simply ignore Europe’s ESG framework if it significantly impeded operations—a direct affront to Ursula von der Leyen, who likes to portray herself as the morally superior, untouchable guardian of EU trade.

Together, these forces launched an offensive to bring Brussels’ climate defense to its knees, where cognitive dissonance had taken hold and the undeniable drift of geopolitical power was being ignored.

We have clearly entered the era of resource dominance. Europe imports roughly 60% of its required energy. Its irrational war on baseload energy sources such as nuclear and coal has only deepened dependence.

In Brussels and EU branch capitals, the lesson is now unavoidable: being a resource-poor trading partner in negotiations reveals how Europe’s capital base has been massively weakened by EU policy. Europe has lost its historic dominant position. US President Trump, during negotiations with the EU, merely displayed what behind closed doors was already clear to everyone.

Fear Wins in the End

Ultimately, Brussels’ capitulation to Washington was a logical consequence of this dependence. The post-colonial extraction era—when France accessed uranium cheaply or Europe leveraged its Middle East dominance—is definitively over. Resource-rich regions now set the rules. Europe must comply, seek alliances, and become economically more robust if it wants a role in the future. Its path into eco-socialism was an illusion that has now burst. Germany’s crisis, its accelerated deindustrialization, is only the beginning—a snapshot of the global economic realignment.

In the end, political fear of street unrest prevailed. A Europe facing regular blackouts would simply be ungovernable, with chaos in the streets, lawlessness, and near-civil war conditions, reminiscent of recurring riots in French banlieues.

Baerbock Plays Climate Theater

While reality has long arrived in Brussels and officials are forced to make initial concessions, former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock—now UN General Assembly President—continues to play the unshakable lead role in the disillusioned climate theater.

On Saturday in Belém, Brazil, at COP30, Baerbock performed with maximum emphasis, trying to give legs to a footsore, limp climate club. She proclaimed that “the climate crisis is the greatest threat of our time,” and that “3.6 billion people—almost half of the global population—are currently highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.” Droughts, floods, extreme heat, and resulting supply insecurity deepen the “vicious cycle of hunger, poverty, displacement, instability, and conflict.”

A bit of Thunberg-style climate apocalypse, performed for a select audience—climate profiteers among themselves. The theater now smells of a support group, struggling to maintain mutual rhetoric reinforcement. Of the purported 3.6 billion sufferers, few are likely interested in the climate club unless they are tied to its subsidy mechanism.

No one doubts that drastic climate changes throughout history caused massive upheavals—migrations, famine, misery. Yet it is high time to end the current CO₂ circus, a carousel revolving around an artificially constructed world with vanishing relevance to everyday life.

The climate business was designed as a classic insider-outsider model. Profiteers of the climate subsidy machine tolerate the occasionally bizarre, childlike savior attitude of Baerbock and other symbolic figures—or even actively side with them. In this sense, Baerbock could indeed be considered a UN ambassador—of those shaping the global climate extraction economy. They pursue policies knowingly destabilizing societies.

The Double Standard of Green Extraction Politics

Perhaps Baerbock can explain to indigenous participants at COP30, protesting deforestation, why Europe’s green lobby cuts entire forests to install uneconomic wind turbines.

She could also offer an economic seminar on how systematic taxation of productive society members—leading only to poverty and relocation of production—supposedly lowers global temperatures. Historical indulgences offer a handy argumentative analogy.

Baerbock’s moral punch has likely suffered due to Brussels’ gradual retreat from climate orthodoxy. No coercion for Qatar, none for Washington—but the small corner bakery is milked with climate levies until closure.

Internally, pressure; externally, bowing. That is the new EU strategy. For those still not seeing it: this fight is not about saving the world’s climate. It is about legislatively sanctioned, corporately executed extraction of wealth—and the US has repeatedly shown the red card.

In Baerbock’s words: the US forces the EU into a 360-degree climate volte-face.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 07:45

Futures Slide As Bitcoin Flash Crashes To April Low Ahead Of $3.1 Trillion Opex

10 Things You Shouldn’t Miss This AM…

1) Japan on Friday escalated its warning of currency intervention and the central bank governor signaled the chance of a near-term interest rate hike, as authorities sought to combat unwelcome yen falls blamed for pushing up the cost of living. RTRS

2) Japan’s inflation ticked higher and exports rose. National CPI for Oct is inline w/the Street, including on headline at +3% (up from +2.9% in Sept) and core (ex-food/energy) at +3.1% (up from +3% in Sept). BBG

3) India’s rupee fell to a record low against the dollar, pressured by uncertainty around a potential US trade deal. BBG

4) The US is open to lifting tariffs on EU goods such as beef and other foods to help keep grocery prices affordable. FT

5) The U.K. government’s borrowing continued to run ahead of projections in October, a deterioration in its finances that it will aim to correct with tax rises and some spending cuts in its annual budget statement next week. WSJ

6) Trump has lifted a 40% tariff on certain Brazilian agricultural products, including coffee, beef and fruits, as Brazil reaps the benefit of the US administration’s attempt to bring down domestic food prices. FT

7) The Fed’s Anna Paulson struck a cautious tone ahead of December’s meeting, saying, “Each cut raises the bar for the next.” Still, she remains more worried about labor market weakness. Stephen Miran reiterated that policy is very restrictive. BBG

8) America’s middle class is weary. After nearly five years of high prices, many middle-class earners thought life would be more affordable by now. Costs for goods and services are 25% above where they were in 2020. Even though the inflation rate is below its recent 2022 high, certain essentials like coffee, ground beef and car repairs are up markedly this year. WSJ

9) The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that Trump’s tariffs will reduce deficits by ~$3T over the next 10 years, down from a prior forecast of $4T. CBO

10) Including yesterday (dating back to since 1957) there have been 8 instances where the S&P 500 gaps up more than 1% only to reverse and close in the red. On the bright side here is S&P 500’s average performance after these 8 instances: 1 day later +233bps, 1 week later +288bps, 1 month later +472bps.

US stock futures continued to sink following yesterday’s remarkable reversal - from +2% to -2% intraday, a move which according to Goldman has only happened 2 other times before: April 7th 2020 (after COVID crash) April 8th 2025 (after Liberation Day crash) - and broad underperformance in Asia (NKY -2.4%, HSI -2.4%, Kospi -3.8%). As of 7:15am, S&P futures were down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures slid 0.4% with a $3.1 trillion option expiration on today's calendar. Pre-mkt, Mag 7 were mixed, with Nvidia falling more than 1% in premarket trading as the biggest artificial-intelligence stocks remained under pressure. Meanwhile the collapse in bitcoin is accelerating, and after a flash crash in overnight trading, it's on pace for its worst month since the June 2022 crypto crash. Bond yields are 1-3bp lower; USD is largely unchanged. Commodities are mostly lower: oil -2.6%, Silver -3.3%. Today's we’ll get the global flash November PMIs, the November Kansas City Fed services activity update, and the Final UMIch numbers.Central bank speakers include the Fed's Williams and Logan, the ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos, Kocher, Muller and Nagel, and the BoE's Pill.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Nvidia falls 1.4%, on track to extend losses, with shares in the semiconductor giant lagging other Magnificent Seven stocks in premarket trading (Alphabet +0.7%, Tesla +0.8%, Amazon +0.2%, Meta +0.3%, Apple +0.1%, Microsoft -0.4%)

• AnaptysBio (ANAB) fell 15% after GSK initiated litigation against the company in the Delaware Chancery Court.

• Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks (MSTR -2.9%, COIN -1.3%, MARA 1.5%) tumble as Bitcoin is on track for its worst monthly performance since a string of corporate collapses rocked the wider crypto sector in 2022.

• Gap Inc. (GAP) rises 4.5% after it reported stronger-than-expected sales, a sign that celebrity-fueled marketing, flashy collaborations and a revamped inventory are luring in consumers.

• New Fortress Energy (NFE) rises 12% after it reported third quarter earnings.

• VinFast Auto (VFS) falls 5.1% after it reported total revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.

• Enviri shares (NVRI) rise 34% after Veolia agreed to buy the US hazardous waste firm Clean Earth for an enterprise value of $3b.

In corporate news, Netflix, Comcast and Paramount Skydance submitted bids for Warner Bros. Discovery by the Nov. 20 deadline. OpenAI is partnering with Hon Hai to design and manufacture hardware for data centers and Hon Hai aims to spend up to $5 billion growing its US manufacturing footprint. 

The Trump administration is proposing to open new areas off of California, Florida and Alaska to crude drilling that would dramatically expand the sale of oil and natural gas rights. Trump’s 28-point peace plan would force Ukraine to cede large chunks of territory taken by Russia, cap the size of its military and lift sanctions on Moscow over time.

A $5 trillion slide in global equities has left investors questioning how much further the tech-led pullback can go. The S&P 500 saw its sharpest intraday reversal since April’s tariff turmoil on Thursday as concerns over lofty valuations and waning prospects for US interest-rate cuts rattled sentiment.

“This is a rational selloff after the rally in tech stocks this year,” said Rory McPherson, chief investment officer at Magnus Financial Discretionary Management. “It could go even further as the market’s not oversold yet. The Fed’s rates policy outlook at the next meeting will absolutely be key.”

US stock futures struggled for direction after the S&P 500 sank to its lowest level since September amid a sustained retreat from the market’s riskier corners. Bitcoin fell below $82,000, after suffering a 3000 point flash crash just before the European open.

Bitcoin is now down 35% from its October highs, with the November drop wiping out a quarter of bitcoin's value, and is on pace for the worst monthly drop since the June 2022 Crypto collapse.

Fed’s Barr, who had supported rate cuts in September and October, added to the hawkish narrative signaling discomfort over inflation. Meanwhile, JPMorgan abd Morgan Stanley’s economists said they no longer expect a December rate cut, citing the bounce back in payrolls for September lowering the risk of a higher unemployment rate.

Thursday’s dramatic reversal in equities failed to deliver the “all clear” for risk that traders sought, instead sending them for cover against further losses, said Goldman partner John Flood. Today’s November options expiry, including $1.7 trillion of S&P 500 options and $725 billion notional of single stock options, has the potential to fuel erratic moves in the index.

Other concerns include brewing worries about over investment in AI, frothy valuations and the ongoing vacuum of macro data. Oracle is emerging as the credit market’s barometer for AI risk and the price of the company’s CDS have surged. Big tech’s debt binge isn’t limited to just Oracle, with risks rising in the race to create an AI world, as highlighted by Ryan Vlastelica in today’s Tech Watch column.

Stocks in Europe are also sliding, following from the sharp reversal in sentiment on AI and tech stocks in yesterday’s US session and heavy declines in Asia. Stoxx 600 down by 1.1% with technology and energy stocks the biggest drags. The benchmark is on track for its worst week since April. Here are the biggest movers Friday: 

• CTS Eventim surges as much as 12%, the most in five years, after the events firm delivered adjusted Ebitda growth above analyst expectations in the third quarter and reiterated its full-year guidance
• Ubisoft shares turn higher, reversing initial declines, as the stock resumes trading following a week-long suspension caused by a delay to the publication of second-quarter results
• Hammerson shares rise as much as 2.8%, , after the real estate firm said it has taken full control of The Oracle retail and leisure destination in Reading after buying a 50% stake from its joint venture partner
• Canal+ shares rise as much as 9.6%, after the broadcaster announced it has retained exclusive rights to the Champions League and two other UEFA cup competitions in France for the period 2027-2031
• ITM Power gains as much as 8.4% after being selected by Stablegrid Group as the technology partner and supplier for two energy infrastructure projects in Germany
• European defense shares fall on Friday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’s agreed to work on a peace plan drafted by the US and Russia and expects to talk with Donald Trump in the coming days about the proposals
• Tullow Oil shares plummet as much as 32% to a new record low after the company issued a trading update. Analysts said there has been a lack of progress on the refinancing of its mountain of debt
• Babcock drops as much as 6.7% following its first-half results, and amidst wider weakness in defense stocks on Friday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’s agreed to work on a peace plan
• Ithaca Energy shares fall as much as 11%, the most in two months, as Goldman Sachs downgrades its rating on the North Sea oil company to sell from neutral, with a 180p price target

Earlier in the session, Asian equities posted their steepest weekly decline since April as technology shares followed a sharp selloff in US peers, driven by renewed concerns over stretched AI valuations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.7%, bringing the week’s losses to nearly 4%. Benchmarks in Taiwan  and South Korea led declines in the region, with shares in China and Hong Kong also traded lower. Some banks, such as HSBC, are starting to look at countries with lower exposure to AI, including India and Indonesia, as alternatives. Asia’s leading chip suppliers to Nvidia led losses on the regional gauge. TSMC and Samsung Electronics dropped more than 4% each before paring some of those losses.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slightly higher, with the yen outperforming after Japan’s government unveiled its biggest stimulus plan since the pandemic. Indian rupee hit a record low.

In rates, bonds rallying in the risk-off environment, with outperformance in gilts after weak retail sales data, a borrowing overshoot and scant growth shown in PMIs. Eurozone activity remained solid, boosted by services.

In commodities, oil prices dragging on energy companies, with Brent down over 2% below $62/barrel as traders weigh a Ukraine-Russia peace plan and sanctions on two Russian oil majors. Bitcoin sliding below $82,000 and set for worst month since 2022. Gold prices lower, down about $40 to $4,038/oz.

The US economic calendar includes September real average hourly earnings (8:30am), November preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am), November final University of Michigan sentiment, August wholesale inventories (10am) and November Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Williams (7:30am), Collins (8am), Barr and Miran (8:30am), Jefferson (8:45am) and Logan (9am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1.1%
• DAX -1.2%
• CAC 40 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.05%
• VIX +1.1 points at 27.54
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1227.51
• euro -0.1% at $1.1516
• WTI crude -2.5% at $57.53/barrel

Top Overnight News

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is bracing for possible economic headwinds in catching up to a resurgent Google (GOOGL), according to The Information. He told colleagues last month that Google’s recent AI progress could “create some temporary economic headwinds” for OpenAI, and the company’s narrowing tech lead and rising cash-burn projections have raised questions among investors.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed should keep going with its cutting cycle and should be looking at the data, via Bloomberg.
• JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs its prior forecast of a 25bp cut.
• Standard Chartered no longer expects the Fed to cut by 25bps in December following the jobs data; expects a Q1-2206 cut, most likely January (prev. forecast no 2026 cuts)
• Republican senators have been privately lobbying US President Trump to support a limited short-term extension of Obamacare subsidies, according to Punchbowl. Adds that save the GOP from a 2026 drubbing and buy time for Congress to pass a more favourable longer-term health care plan. Multiple GOP senators were set to meet with US President Trump on Thursday, but the meeting was cancelled for unrelated reasons.
• Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said she is approaching the December rate decision cautiously and that the September labour-market report was encouraging overall, though she remains, on balance, more worried about the labour market than inflation. She said rate cuts so far have been appropriate but each one raises the bar for the next, and with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment, monetary policy must walk a fine line. She expects to learn a lot between now and the December meeting and said her longer-term policy thinking is focused on balancing inflation and labour-market risks. Paulson said the US economy is doing OK, but aggregate growth is unusually dependent on high-income earners and is particularly sensitive to equity valuations. She added that tariff effects are smaller than feared and that the overall demand environment is helping contain inflation, according to Reuters.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump signed an order modifying the scope of tariffs on Brazil, stating that certain agricultural products will not be subject to the additional ad valorem duty imposed under Executive Order 14323, according to the White House. Bloomberg reported that Trump has expanded his reductions of certain food tariffs by extending them to the 40% surcharge placed on Brazil over the Bolsonaro case, noting that last week’s exemptions did not apply to that portion of the tariffs. White House said US President Trump's order on Brazilian imports removes tariffs announced on July 30th on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee, and orange juice.
• EU Trade Commissioner said momentum is improving on the Australia–EU trade deal and expects another round of talks early next year, according to Reuters.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the sharp Wall Street selloff reverberated through the region despite the absence of fresh catalysts. ASX 200 was dragged down by all sectors, with gold and mining leading declines; tech held up relatively better alongside defensive names. Nikkei 225 slipped at the open, pressured by mining and metals, while financials found some relief as yields eased off highs. No move was seen on the budget, which came in line with expectations. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened softer but recovered to trade firmer, though still reflecting the cautious global tone.

Top Asian News

• Japan’s cabinet approved a JPY 21.3tln economic stimulus package (vs expectations of JPY 20–21.3tln), with JPY 17.7tln in fresh spending via the extra budget and an overall impact of JPY 42.58tln, according to Bloomberg. Japan PM Takaichi said new bonds will be issued to fund the package if tax revenue falls short, but total JGB issuance will be smaller than last year, adding that sustainable state finances must be achieved through economic growth, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she will take appropriate action if there are excessive FX moves, noting that FX intervention is an option as it was mentioned in the Japan–US agreement in September. She said the government will issue debt to fund part of the stimulus package as needed, is not trying to increase the size of spending, and is alarmed by recent one-sided and rapid foreign-exchange moves, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she is closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and will take appropriate action based on the US–Japan forex agreement. She declined to comment on FX levels, noted that recent moves have been sharp and one-sided, and stressed that currencies should move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. She said that at her meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda and the Economy Minister, Ueda explained the BoJ will gradually adjust monetary support in line with economic and price improvements, adding that specific policy decisions are up to the BoJ. She said the three officials also reaffirmed they will coordinate closely on market developments, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said JGB yields move based on domestic economic, price and monetary-policy developments, fiscal conditions, and overseas market moves. She added that Japan will guide appropriate debt-management policy to ensure it does not lose market trust in its finances, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan is only halfway toward achieving sustainable, stable price increases accompanied by wage gains. She also said Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio should edge down from last year, even after an extra budget for the stimulus package, according to Reuters.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said a weak JPY lifts import prices and contributes to higher consumer inflation, and that FX moves may have a larger impact on prices given current conditions. He said companies are increasingly willing to raise wages and prices, noted he is mindful that FX moves could affect inflation expectations and underlying inflation, and said the BoJ will scrutinise the impact of FX volatility on prices, according to Reuters.
• Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160, according to Bloomberg, citing a government panellist.
• Foxconn (2317 TT) said it will launch a joint venture with Intrinsic to build an AI factory and plans to invest USD 2–3bln per year in AI. Foxconn and OpenAI will also collaborate to strengthen US manufacturing across the AI supply chain, with OpenAI receiving early access to evaluate Foxconn’s systems and an option to purchase them, according to Reuters.
• Foxconn’s (2317 TT) VisionBay AI unit said it plans to deploy 27MW using NVDA’s GB300 chips in the first half of 2026. This will be Taiwan’s largest advanced GPU cluster and the first GB300 AI datacenter in APAC, according to Reuters.
• Singapore raised its 2025 GDP growth estimate to around 4%, from the previous 1.5–2.5%, according to Reuters.
• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama says she can't comment on expected size of additional bond issuance to fund the latest package. She believes markets have stabilised after various announcement. Also adds that she doesn't believe the latest package is sufficiently big to ignite demand driven inflation.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) have opened lower across the board, as Europe plays catch-up to the hefty losses seen on Wall St, where NVIDIA fell into negative territory - erasing all of its initial post-earnings strength. AEX (-1.5%) underperforms in Europe with ASML sinking nearly 6%. European sectors are broadly in the red, with a clear defensive bias given the risk tone. Energy is hampered by pressure in the oil complex amidst constructive Russia-Ukraine developments. Basic Resources and Tech have been hit by the risk tone.

Top European News

• NBH's Virag has quit, Bloomberg reports citing the NBH; to be replaced with Banai. Virag will now be an advisor to the Governor.
• ECB's Lagarde says the ECB will continue to adjust policy as needed to ensure that inflation remains at the 2% target. Internal barriers in services and good markets are equivalent to tariffs of around 100% and 65% respectively.
• SNB's Tschudin says inflation will rise slightly in upcoming quarters.

FX

• DXY is flat/modestly firmer today and trades at the lower end of a 99.98 to 110.26 range. Not much driving things for the index this morning, focus remains firmly on the NFP report in the prior session, which led to some major banks adjusting their calls for a December rate cut. JPMorgan no longer sees a cut in December; Standard Chartered also looks for unchanged, instead favouring a Q1'26 move, likely January. Money markets currently assign a 27% chance of a Dec. cut. Focus ahead now on US Flash PMIs and UoM Sentiment data. Most recently, the USD has picked up a touch and continues to make fresh highs - seemingly as the risk tone continues to deteriorate. Nothing fresh to explain the dip in sentiment, but comes as NVIDIA continues to slip in the pre-market, hawkish Fed re-pricing, and negative growth implications of European PMIs.
• EUR is a little lower and trades within a 1.1514 to 1.1552 range. Some choppy two-way action on the French/German PMI metrics, before then moving lower as the USD attempts to move higher in recent trade. To recap the PMI figures, the EZ-wide PMI didn't have much impact as the woes for the manufacturing sector were clearly illustrated by France and Germany before. HCOB notes that, for France in particular, the political instability in the region is weighing and is expected to remain complicated, "meaning that the EZ is unlikely to receive any positive impetus from this quarter in the short term". In terms of price action, EUR/USD moved a touch lower on the French figures (which were weaker across the board), before then moving higher on the German metrics (strong across the board).
• GBP is a little lower vs USD, with much of the downside seen in recent trade amidst some broader Dollar demand; currently at the bottom of a 1.3051 to 1.3102 range. Earlier, UK PMIs were mixed - Services missed expectations, whilst Manufacturing surprisingly climbed into expansionary territory; nonetheless, Composite dipped more than expected. The inner report suggested that the "debate will shift further away from inflation worries toward the need to support the struggling economy, hence adding to the chances of interest rates being cut in December".
• JPY the strongest G10 currency, buoyed by the risk tone and comments via Finance Minister Katayama, who suggested that intervention was on the table. USD/JPY traded within a 157.10-157.54 range, before edging to fresh session lows at 156.57 as the risk tone deteriorated in the European morning. Japanese nationwide CPI printed in-line with expectations, with PMIs also constructive; the internal PMI report suggested that "inflation remains a key concern". Figures which play in favour of a hike in December. On fiscal developments, Japan’s cabinet approved a JPY 21.3tln economic stimulus package (vs expectations of JPY 20–21.3tln), with JPY 17.7tln in fresh spending via the extra budget and an overall impact of JPY 42.58tln, according to Bloomberg.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with the Kiwi marginally firmer whilst the Aussie remains pressured. Overnight activity currencies were buoyed by an improving risk tone - and were unreactive to the region's own data figures. This morning has seen a scaling back of initial upside, as the risk tone dips.

Fixed Income

• Fixed firmer this morning and climbing as the risk tone deteriorates.
• USTs at a 113-10+ peak with gains of 14 ticks at most. Specifics for the US light, strength in USTs derived from the increasingly risk-off tone seen across markets with NVIDIA once again a primary driver. If the move continues, we look to resistance at 113-18+ from the last week of October before 113-29, the figure and then 114-02. Today's docket features Real Weekly earnings for September, Flash November PMIs and several Fed speakers. Text expected from Williams, Barr, Jefferson & Logan in addition to TV appearances from Collins and Miran.
• Bunds bid given the tone, in-fitting with USTs. In addition, the complex benefits from a poor set of Flash PMIs which speak to tepid economic performance and ongoing political concerns. For the ECB, the data is unlikely to change much as the inflation-related components were subject to two-way movements and we await the December forecasts. Bunds as high as 129.09, firmer by 47 ticks at most. If the move continues, we look to 129.40 from November 13th.
• Gilts opened with gains of 11 ticks after weak Retail Sales data, despite the offsetting influence of PSNB. Additionally, and as outlined above, the risk tone is playing a role. As such, the benchmark is firmer by just over 50 ticks at best, notching a 92.43 peak, eyeing the WTD high of 92.60.
• The Retail Sales data is itself unlikely to move the dial for the BoE, as Governor Bailey is focused on inflation and caveats apply to the series re. Black Friday and the Budget. However, the subsequent PMI release highlighted increased growth concerns and a "real chance that this pause may turn into a downturn", points that factor in-favour of further BoE easing, and moves some of the focus away from inflation in assessing the BoE's near-term outlook; BoE pricing unreactive, remains around an 83% chance of a cut.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent Jan'26 trends lower from USD 58.80/bbl to 57.50/bbl and USD 63.02/bbl to USD 61.98/bbl, respectively, as the global risk tone weakens and further reporting on the 28-point peace plan. Reported by Axios, Kyiv would have to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree that it will never join NATO. On Ukrainian security, Kyiv would be given a guarantee modelled on NATO's Article 5, which would commit the US and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the "transatlantic community".
• Spot XAU has grinded lower from a peak of USD 4089/oz to a trough of USD 4023/oz before paring back earlier losses to USD 4063/oz as the market continues to consolidate above USD 4k/oz. Despite the recent choppiness in XAU, investors still see further upside in the yellow metal driven by further Fed rate cuts, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and rising fiscal concerns.
• 3M LME Copper is ultimately trading lower as it follows the global risk tone. The red metal initially followed on from Thursday's selloff, forming a low at USD 10.66k/t before bouncing to a peak of USD 10.72k/t. As the session continues, 3M LME Copper has fallen back to new session lows and remains near lows at USD 10.64k/t.
• Global crude steel output fell 5.9% Y/Y in October and China's crude steel output fell 12.1% Y/Y, according to World Steel.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump’s 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine would force Kyiv to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree never to join NATO, according to a draft obtained by Axios.
• US President Trump's peace plan for Ukraine includes a security guarantee modelled on NATO's Article 5, which would commit the US & European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the "transatlantic community", via Axios.
• US officials reportedly intend to brief EU ambassadors in Kyiv on the draft peace proposal, via Reuters citing sources.
• European officials are reportedly still analysing the US-Russia peace proposal re. Ukraine, via FT; a diplomat cited says it "basically means capitulation [to Moscow]", another said the focus is to "...work for a more reasonable outcome".
• UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron and Ukrainian President Zelensky is to hold a call today at 11:00GMT, via Bloomberg.

Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: Nov P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 52.5
• 9:45 am: Nov P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 54.55, prior 54.8
• 9:45 am: Nov P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 54.5, prior 54.6
• 10:00 am: Nov F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 50.6, prior 50.3
• 10:00 am: Aug F Wholesale Inventories MoM, prior -0.2%

Central Bank Speakers

• 7:30 am: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Speech
• 8:00 am: Fed’s Collins on CNBC
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Barr Gives Welcoming Remarks at the College Fed Challeng
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Miran Appears on Bloomberg TV
• 8:45 am: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Financial Stability
• 9:00 am: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Conference in Switzerland

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m writing this on a bitterly cold, frosty morning, trying to keep an eye on equally frosty markets while resisting the stress of watching the first day of the Ashes live from Perth. England are chasing their first Test win in Australia since 2011, but so far, it’s gone about as well as the markets have over the past day.

Indeed it’s been a truly remarkable 24 hours, with a sequence of moves that were almost impossible to predict. Any time between 9:30pm GMT on Wednesday night and around 3pm yesterday, if I’d been able to quietly delete Wednesday’s chart of the day (link here) – the one pointing out that Nvidia doesn’t tend to do well on the day and week after earnings – I would have done so without hesitation. After the world’s largest company reported spectacular results, the stock was up around +5% by 3pm London time. It closed down -3.15%. The broader market followed a similar pattern: the S&P 500 initially climbed +1.93%, only to fade and close down -1.56% as doubts about AI valuations crept back in. That marked the biggest intra-day swing for the S&P since the six days of extreme market turmoil that followed the Liberation Day tariffs in early April. Adding to the negative backdrop for crypto were lingering questions over the crypto market structure bill that’s being worked on in Congress.

There were plenty of signs of financial stress underneath the surface. The VIX jumped +2.76pts to finish at 26.42, its highest level since late April. Crypto weakness also resumed in earnest, with Bitcoin down -3.65% yesterday to a 7-month low and another -1.44% lower at around $86,000 this morning. With the cryptocurrency now more than -30% below its peak, that reawakened concerns about a further wave of forced selling, amid worries that retail investors might need to liquidate other assets to meet margin calls.

In Asia the KOSPI (-3.73%) stands out as the largest underperformer overnight, dragged down by major index tech heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The Nikkei (-2.42%), Hang Seng (-2.08%), ASX (-1.59%), and Shanghai Composite (-1.49%) are also all sharply lower. S&P 500 (+0.25%) futures are edging higher with Nasdaq futures (+0.07%) only just edging back into positive territory.

It's hard to pin the blame for the global sell-off on the delayed September payrolls report—unless everyone was late back from an early Christmas lunch—since risk assets initially took the data well. That said, the release did offer enough moving parts that you could construct completely different narratives depending on which line you chose to focus on.

On the bright side, nonfarm payrolls were up +119k (vs. +51k expected), which took the 3-month average back up to +62k. Plus the broader U6 measure of underemployment fell back to 8.0%. However, there was more negative news in -33k of revisions, and the unemployment rate, which ticked up to 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected), and it nearly rounded up further given it was at 4.44% to two decimal places. To be fair, that could partly be explained by a higher participation rate, which unexpectedly moved up to 62.4% (vs. 62.3% expected), but it was still the highest unemployment rate in nearly four years. See our economists’ interpretation of this Rorschach test of a payrolls report here. Following the print, they are just about sticking to their baseline of a December rate cut, but will be reassessing this with upcoming data, most notably jobless claims, ADP and JOLTS.

We did get some good news from the Department of Labor, who released the backlog of weekly initial jobless claims over recent weeks. That came in lower than expected at 220k in the week ending November 15 (vs. 227k expected). So while the jobs report only went up to September, the initial claims data reassured investors that the labour market had broadly held up through the shutdown too. However, an uptick in continuing claims (1,974k vs 1,950k expected) diluted this more positive take a bit.

Net net, investors dialled up the likelihood of a December rate cut from the Fed, with futures moving that up to a 35% chance (from 29% the day before). That was driven by the higher unemployment rate and concern that labour demand was weakening. This initially led to a steepening reaction in Treasuries, which then turned into a broader rally as the risk-off tone took hold. By the close, the 2yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 3.53%, with the 10yr yield (-5.3bps) down to 4.08% and the 30yr yield (-3.3bps) posting a smaller decline to 4.72%. Remember as well that this is the last payrolls report the Fed will have before their decision on December 10, as the October and November reports are coming out together on December 16.

Digging deeper into the equity sell-off, the S&P 500 -1.56% decline means the index is now down -5.11% from its peak, which is the furthest its been away from its record since May. Tech stocks led those declines, with the NASDAQ (-2.15%) seeing its worst day in two months, whilst Nvidia itself fell -3.15%. Few segments were spared from the sell-off, with the small cap Russell 2000 (-1.82%) and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-1.17%) also seeing sharp declines. Consumer staples (+1.11%) were the only top-level S&P sector to advance, which came thanks to a strong earnings report from Walmart (+6.46%). By contrast momentum tech stocks got a hammering, with Robinhood (-10.11%) and Micron (-10.87%) two of the three worst performers in the S&P on the day. And CoreWeave saw a remarkable intra-day swing, from +11.44% just after the open to -7.97% by the close.

It might feel like ancient history now, but before the US selloff, European equities had risen on the back of Wednesday night’s Nvidia announcement. Multiple indices were higher, with the STOXX 600 (+0.40%) rising, along with others including the CAC 40 (+0.34%), the DAX (+0.50%) and the FTSE MIB (+0.62%). European futures are down -1 to -1.5% this morning in Asia. In fixed income, the earlier risk-on tone meant yields were generally higher with those on yields on 10yr bunds (+0.5bps) and OATs (+2.9bps) both rising.

Overnight in Japan, core inflation in October increased by +3.0% year-on-year, marking its highest rate since July but aligning with market expectations. Moreover, the headline inflation rate also rose to +3.0%, remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target for 43 consecutive months, but again in line with consensus.

Also overnight, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet have sanctioned a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.5 billion) economic stimulus package, representing the first significant policy action under the new leadership, which has committed to implementing expansionary fiscal policies. This package encompasses general account expenditures of 17.7 trillion yen, significantly surpassing the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and marking the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also feature 2.7 trillion yen in tax reductions. However, this stimulus initiative has raised concerns about exacerbating Japan's already substantial debt burden, resulting in government bond yields reaching unprecedented levels earlier this week and the yen depreciating against the dollar. The global risk-off may have actually helped the package land today with bonds rallying across the board so 10yr JGBs are -3.0bps lower trading at 1.79% as we go to print.

In geopolitical news, Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said he agreed to work on a peace plan that was drafted by the US after contacts with Russia, and that he would expect to speak with Trump in the coming days. The reported details of the proposals would require major concessions by Ukraine on territorial and military issues, and there was little in Zelenskiy’s comments to suggest these were acceptable to Kyiv. Still, with the news of talks coming just as US sanctions on Russia’s two oil largest companies are due to take effect today, oil markets saw some relief on risks to Russian oil supply. WTI crude is trading -1.20% lower this morning at $58.30/bbl, following at -0.50% decline yesterday.

To the day ahead now, we’ll get the global flash November PMIs, US November Kansas City Fed services activity, UK November GfK consumer confidence, October retail sales, public finances, France November manufacturing confidence, October retail sales, and Canada retail sales. Central bank speakers include the Fed's Williams and Logan, the ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos, Kocher, Muller and Nagel, and the BoE's Pill.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 07:28

NASA Debunks Rumors About Interstellar Comet 3I/Atlas

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

With the federal government shutdown over, NASA leadership was finally able to provide an update to the public about an interstellar object that was caught passing through the solar system in July.

A press conference was livestreamed on Nov. 19, and it began with Associate Administrator Amit Kshatriya confirming that the object known as 3I/Atlas was an interstellar comet and nothing else.

“I think it’s important that we talk about [the fact] that this object is a comet,” he said.

”It looks and behaves like a comet, and has and all evidence points to it being a comet. But this one came from outside the solar system, which makes it fascinating, exciting, and scientifically very important.”

The name 3I/Atlas comes from the fact that it is only the third interstellar object (3I) NASA has discovered that originated from outside the solar system, and it was first picked up by the NASA-funded Atlas Survey Telescope located in the mountains of Chile.

Discovered on July 1 by its planetary defense network—which also found it posed no threat to Earth—NASA retasked a large portion of its fleet of interplanetary science spacecraft to track the comet as it made its closest pass to the sun at the end of October.

Nicky Fox, associate administrator for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, said that 20 mission teams and counting contributed to collecting whatever data they could on the comet, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Parker Solar Probe, Europa Clipper, and the James Webb Telescope.

The planet 3I/Atlas came closest to was Mars, so NASA also tasked its Perseverance rover on the Martian surface, the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and the MAVEN spacecraft to take pictures and learn what they could.

That flyby took place at a distance of less than 20 million miles from the Red Planet on Oct. 3, and then the comet proceeded to make its closest approach to the sun while Earth was on the opposite side. Before that, 3I/Atlas was monitored through September by spacecraft sent to study asteroids named Psyche and Lucy.

It takes time for NASA scientists to receive the images and data from deep space, process them, and prepare and make the initial findings ready for publication.

The space agency’s website showed its last update on the comet published on Aug. 25.

A shutdown of the federal government began on Oct. 1, which suspended public relations teams for nearly all government agencies, and did not end until Nov. 12.

Amid NASA’s silence, speculation spread that the so-called comet was actually a spaceship of some kind built and sent by an extraterrestrial intelligence.

While he did not specifically call out theories of aliens, Kshatriya saw it all in a positive light.

“I’m actually very excited that a lot of the world was speculating about the comet while NASA was in a period where we couldn’t speak about it due to the recent government shutdown,” he said.

“I think what I took away from that whole experience, and watching that as we were working during the shutdown, was just how interested and how excited people were about the possibility of what this comet could be.

“What I think is really awesome is that folks are interested in this incredible finding that we observed and that we have that came from the heavens, and what that means. It expanded people’s brains to think about how magical the universe could be, and I'll tell you here at NASA, we think that every day.”

Along with unveiling their backlog of images, NASA leadership shared that this comet likely came from a solar system much older than the Earth’s, though it is unclear which system. Moving at more than 60 kilometers per second (134,000 mph), it had an icy nucleus estimated to be between 1,400 feet and 3.5 miles in diameter, surrounded by a cloud of gas and dust called a coma, made mostly of carbon dioxide, vaporized water, nickel, and iron.

Solidified in the extreme freezing temperatures of deep space, a comet’s elements vaporize as it is warmed by the sun’s rays. While the rate at which the object was losing those elements, which the scientists coined “bake off,” appeared similar to comets originating in this solar system, 3I/Atlas appeared to have an unusually large ratio of water ice to carbon dioxide, as well as unusually more nickel than iron.

Scientists also addressed two things that could allow speculation that 3I/Atlas was not just a comet: the appearance of a tail forming on the sunward side instead of streaking behind the main body, and any recording of acceleration as it came around the sun that would not be solely due to gravitational forces.

They said that a sunward tail had been observed before on several comets and would most likely be due to a lack of solar radiation pressure on escaping gases. While teams are still monitoring for any non-gravitational acceleration, the slight change that has been detected so far has been on par with other comets experiencing slight changes in orbit due to gas burn off.

“Every time something gets pushed off the comet, that acts like a little rocket engine at that moment, pushes in the other direction,” said Tom Statler, lead scientist for solar system small bodies. ”And so it’s very, very common to see comets have subtle changes in their orbits as a result of these little rocket forces, just called non-gravitational acceleration.”

NASA and its partners will continue observing the interstellar visitor, and more opportunities will become available as it moves closer to Earth in December before heading back toward the outer planets.

Meanwhile, more and more data already captured continues to come in, including some from the Parker Solar Probe that Fox said came in right before the press conference. And more revelations about this comet are anticipated to be found and shared from that still-unpublished data.

“It’s a long way from where we are today,” Statler said.

“Seeing the initial images to then making sure that they are accurately calibrated and processed to do science with, and then doing the analysis, combining the data sets, understanding them, and finally producing the scientific understanding—the knowledge of what this all means—which will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

“The answers will come later on. We are still at this phase ... where we’re figuring out what are even the right questions to ask about interstellar objects. This is a snapshot of where we are very early in the scientific process.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 07:20

Bitcoin Flash-Crashes Below $82,000 As UBS Says A "Flush" Is Needed Before "Turning More Constructive" 

As we joked earlier this week about the overnight Bitcoin dump - the "Korean Krypto Kamikazes" - the selling has continued with no clear catalyst. The largest crypto asset briefly plunged to $81,569 and is now on track for its worst month since 2022. 

BTC dropped as much as 6% early Friday to $81,569, while Ether and smaller tokens plunged into the abyss as risk-off sentiment hit both crypto and equity futures (market wrap). Bitcoin is now down roughly 25% for the month.

Nearly $1 billion in positions were liquidated during the overnight flush, stoking fears that the bear market could deepen. This forced selling comes despite a pro-crypto White House and rising institutional adoption. 

Testing weekly 100sma

IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note that the market "may also be seeking to test Strategy's pain threshold," referring to Michael Saylor's Bitcoin hoarding firm.

A JPMorgan analyst pointed out to clients the potential exclusion of MSTR from upcoming MSCI and Nasdaq reviews. 

Overall, the crypto market is certaintly gripped by forced selling, thin liquidity, and extreme fear - a market environment very similar to the last crypto meltdown in June 2022. 

Related:

• What's Behind Today's Brutal Selloff: Goldman's "Technical Checklist"

• Bitcoin: Store of Value? More Like You’re Shorting Volatility Without Knowing It

• Fractured Fed Feeds Hawkish Flows; Bitcoin, Bullion, & Big-Tech Pump'n'Dump

• ZH On X: The last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower

• So, WTF Happened Today!?

"The risk now is that continued downside forces retail investors to sell favorites, sidelining dip buyers and triggering systematic supply," UBS analyst George Redma told clients. He warned that the crypto slump "may amplify risk-off sentiment into year-end." 

Redma continued, "The desk may need to see this flush before turning more constructive into year-end. Given the attention on CTA levels, a meaningful washout could set up a better risk backdrop heading into next year as stimulus returns to focus."

"For now, uncertainty around this overhang seems to be preventing re-risking despite traditionally strong seasonality," he concluded in a brief note to clients. 

Goldman Sachs trader John Flood told clients, "Sharp reversals in NVDA and Crypto suggestive that an NVDA beat was not the "all clear" for risk that we were hoping for (after what has already been a very difficult 2 week stretch). Plenty of scar tissue out there right now. We remain eerily quiet on our trading desk."

Goldman analyst Jack McFerran commented on the crypto bear market, saying, "I don't pretend to be a crypto expert and admittedly the 'why' is harder, but the confluence of whale selling seems to be leading risk." 

The question now is whether the slide to $81,569 was the full flush, or if more panic selling lies ahead as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday week.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 07:00

"Rigging The News Is Heinous" - FCC Chair Carr Probes BBC 'Corruption'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has launched a probe into the BBC “intentionally distorting” edit of President Trump’s January 6 2021 speech, demanding U.S. broadcasters NPR and PBS reveal if they aired the fake clip—escalating the scandal that forced BBC brass to quit as Trump threatens a $1 billion+ lawsuit.

Carr’s letter to BBC’s Tim Davie, NPR’s Katherine Maher, and PBS’s Paula Kerger accuses the BBC of splicing Trump’s speech to “depict President Trump voicing a sentence that, in fact, he never uttered.”

“That would appear to meet the very definition of publishing a materially false and damaging statement,” Carr urged.

He noted the edit joined portions “54 minutes apart,” receiving “widespread condemnation.”

Carr demanded transcripts and video to determine if the clip aired in the U.S., citing broadcasters’ “legal obligation to operate in the public interest,” including “prohibitions on news distortion and broadcast hoax.” 

He warned: “The FCC has stated that ‘rigging or slanting the news is a most heinous act against the public interest.’”

Trump has slammed the BBC as “100% fake news,” vowing a $1 billion suit, with lawyers declaring “The BBC is on notice.” 

On the BBC resignations, Trump noted  “The TOP people in the BBC, including TIM DAVIE, the BOSS, are all quitting/FIRED, because they were caught “doctoring” my very good (PERFECT!) speech of January 6th.”

“These are very dishonest people who tried to step on the scales of a Presidential Election,” Trump added, further urging, “On top of everything else, they are from a Foreign Country, one that many consider our Number One Ally. What a terrible thing for Democracy!”

Carr looped in NPR and PBS for distributing BBC content, probing if they aired the distorted speech—emphasizing U.S. broadcasters’ duty to avoid “news distortion.” 

This ties into broader media accountability, as the UK’s Ofcom investigates, but Carr’s FCC move amps up pressure on foreign “fake news” influencing Americans.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 06:30

Visualizing The Impact Of Terrorism Around The World

According to the Global Guardian Terror Index 2026, countries in Africa, Asia and some in Latin America and the Middle East are being heavily affected by acts of terrorism.

However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, in major economies in Europe, the terror threat also continued to be high.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Within Africa and Asia, unstable countries like Sudan, Mali, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were classified as extremely impacted by terror, as were the usual suspects like Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

However, the extreme classification was also applied to Nigeria, India, Myanmar, Colombia and Mexico, were armed groups and insurgents continue to carry out violent attacks.

In Europe, Germany, France, Austria and the United Kingdom were classified as subject to a high impact, similar to the situation in the United States, Russia, Australia and much of the Middle East and North Africa.

In the U.S. and Western Europe, lone-wolf attacks made up much of the tally, driven by islamist or other extremist ideologies.

The 2026 index now marks Iraq and Libya only in the "high" category, indicative of a broader trend which saw the epicenter of terrorism shift from the Middle East into Sub-Saharan Africa, with Burkina Faso and Niger also high on the list.

Areas of relative calm were sparse, according to the ranking, but could still be found in Southern-Central Africa, Central American and parts of Central Asia.

The ranking takes into account terror incidents, casualtites, fatalities and hostages by groups, insurgents and individual perpetrators.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 05:45

Germans Pay 4 Times More For Electricity Than Hungarians In Capital Cities

Via Remix News,

A report out of the International Energy Agency reveals that the Hungarian capital of Budapest had the lowest electricity prices in the EU in October. Meanwhile, the German capital of Berlin ranked as having the most expensive rate in Europe.

German households paid more than four times higher electricity prices on average than Hungarian households in the second half of 2024, reports Magyar Nemzet, based on the IEA study. 

In one section of its report, the agency noted the importance of investments in renewables and efforts to make electricity affordable, adding that prices can vary greatly between countries.

Világgazdaság recently wrote on the latest Eurostat figures from October, which show that Germany had the highest household electricity unit price of 41.08 euro cents, while Hungary’s was 9.34 euro cents per kilowatt hour. The EU and slightly lower European averages were about 2.8 times higher than the Budapest tariff, based on a report by the Finnish VaasaETT analysis company. In addition to Germany, electricity was more expensive than 30 euro cents in eight other capitals.

Hungary has maintained such a low level due to its government’s policy of keeping a cap on utility prices. The Hungarian price regulation has been two-tiered since August 2022: The “classic” reduced utility price (36 forints per kilowatt-hour) is valid up to 2,523 kWh of electricity per year, after which a higher, but still reduced, and non-market-based, official price comes into effect. This 70.10 forint tariff was 10.76 euro cents in October, which is the second lowest among the capitals examined.

It is also worth comparing how much the tariffs, whether low or high in absolute terms, burden households. Based on the October figures, the Hungarian Energy and Public Utilities Regulatory Office calculated that the average amount of electricity and gas consumed by a two-earner household with an average income among the capitals examined. 

Among the households modeled in this way, a Budapest resident spent 1.7 percent of their income on utilities, while a Brussels resident spent 2.2 percent. Lisbon had the worst figure at 6.1 percent. Berlin came in seventh place with 2.5 percent.

An earlier Eurostat calculation from October showed that in the first half of 2025, the Czech Republic had the highest electricity prices (39.16) in classical purchasing power parity (PPS), followed by Poland (34.96) and Italy (34.40).

Hungary once again performed excellently in this comparison with a value of 15.01, which put it in second place after Malta (13.68).

Opposition parties in Hungary have repeatedly called for the Hungarian caps to be cancelled, arguing that the cost is too great. 

Brussels has also shown little sympathy for Hungary’s reliance on Russian gas.

The EU has called for the government to drop this energy, but if Hungary were to stop importing Russian gas, heating prices for Hungarians would spike, as the caps would no longer be sustainable. 

Despite the United States exempting Hungary from its own ban on Russian energy, EU commission head Ursula von der Leyen has been clear that Brussels still expects Budapest to submit a plan to divest itself of Russian energy sources. 

Government calculations show that if Hungary were forced by the EU to forego Russian natural gas and oil, tariffs would increase threefold, directly hurting Hungarian citizens. In addition, the price of energy used by businesses would also rise, which, even if they survived, would be passed on to consumers.

The question may arise as to why Brussels has an interest in weakening the economy of a member state and worsening the financial situation of its population, and why politicians who want to take over the government of Hungary support these efforts, Magyar Nemzet asks. ​​

Read more here

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 05:00