I had fun talking with Scott and Ed about the market’s reaction to the SpaceX IPO, including whether the valuation is justified, and why I pay attention to the company’s float.

We also discuss why I find the comparisons to the dot-com bubble misguided, what to make of the circular deals in the AI industry, and how to think about hedging in today’s market.

I have known Scott since his first book, “The Four,” came out a decade ago; I am looking forward to getting to know Ed (see you at dinner Weds!)

 

 

 

 

 

Sources:
Prof G Markets

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

 

 

 

The post Euphoria Has Taken Over The Markets — ft. Barry Ritholtz appeared first on The Big Picture.

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• The impact of the AI capex boom on S&P 500 return on equity: Record profitability has been one of the factors supporting high S&P 500 valuations. S&P 500 ROE has surged by 150 bp during the past four quarters, driven by a boost from the mega-cap technology stocks to index profit margins. The AI capex boom has lifted semiconductor profitability but will be an increasing headwind to mega-cap tech ROE going forward. AI also creates a key long-term upside case for ROE, both for the mega-cap tech stocks and for the broad equity market. Goldman’s strategy team on the record return-on-equity sitting underneath this index. Useful data behind the “valuations are stretched” headlines. (Goldman Sachs)

• Donald Trump, Champion of Renewable Energy:  California — which would be the world’s 4th largest economy if it were a country — gets more than half of its electricity from renewables. It is rapidly becoming a state largely powered by the sun during daylight hours and powered by batteries during the night. Krugman on the irony that Trump-era policies are inadvertently boosting renewable buildout. Markets find a way; politics, less so. (Paul Krugman)

• Real-Estate Agents Are Quitting the Slow Housing Market: WSJ on the agent exodus — NAR membership dropping, the bottom-quartile producers gone first. The post-NAR-settlement shakeout that everyone predicted, finally arriving. In fourth year of struggling market, even real-estate professionals who made it this far are reaching breaking point (Wall Street Journal)

• Million-Dollar Watches Are Absolutely Booming. Here’s Why: Sales of seven-figure watches at auction are on pace to double from last year. And it’s not the brands you might think. GQ on the seven-figure-watch market and the new generation of buyers driving it. The status economy keeps finding new asset classes. (GQ)

• Half of America’s Cities Are Depopulating. We Could Be Headed for a Ghost Town Era. *Tumbleweed*. No city in the Northeast or Midwest is safe from a trend toward depopulation. And just because states such as Texas and Utah experience growth now, doesn’t mean it will last. At least, not according to research. Major depopulation is coming for the United States—and it’s coming fast. Popular Mechanics on the demographic split between the handful of booming metros and everywhere else. The infrastructure implications are larger than the headline. (Popular Mechanics)

• These Are the Country’s Top CEOs. They’ve Maximized the Moment, Whether in Pizza, Sports, or Tech. From Delta’s Bastian to Exxon Mobil’s Woods, these 25 leaders have positioned their companies for long-term success. Good managers matter. We gather these names to study which tactics work, in the hope of informing future investment decisions. (Barron’s)

• The Mars Delusion: Noema makes the unsentimental case against the Mars-colonization fantasy on physical, biological, and economic grounds. The dream survives mostly because it’s marketed by people who don’t have to live the math. Establishing a human colony on Mars is fraught with risk. Why are so many people obsessed with achieving it? (NOEMA)

• Trump’s Iran “Deal” Is a Giant Bag of Dog Sh*t:  It’s not a deal. It’s a memo of understanding in advance of a surrender of the American-led world order. The Bulwark on the gap between the Iran-deal press release and what the actual terms commit to (or don’t). The branding is moving faster than the substance. (The Bulwark) see also Trump Is Tired of Arming Allies. This Country Is Stepping Up. The U.S. retreat from the global stage is an opportunity for South Korea. (Politico)

• The Classic Movie That Was Nearly Destroyed by a Single Line of Code: A beloved film was accidentally deleted—and miraculously saved. The real story behind the ‘Toy Story’ franchise is even better than the movies. WSJ on the legendary near-deletion of Toy Story 2 and how the lessons quietly saved Toy Story 5. A backup story made interesting. The real story behind the ‘Toy Story’ franchise is even better than the movies. (Wall Street Journal)

• Jalen Brunson Is the ‘King of New York’ The undersized superstar delivers a historic title for the Knicks. The undersized superstar delivers a historic title for the Knicks. His most important contribution? Choosing to play there. (Wall Street Journal)

Video of the day: ‘Toy Story 5’ Director on Pixar’s Secret to Making Adults Cry.

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, over the past four decades, Baupost has grown to $22 billion, with annual net returns of over 20%. The legendary investor is known for his patient, risk-averse, and contrarian approach to finding deeply discounted securities across equities, distressed debt, and real estate.  He is the author of Margin of Safety (1991) and the editor of the 7th edition of Security Analysis (2023).

Summer is as much as 38 days longer than it was 30 years ago

Source: Washington Post

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Massive 2,000-Year-Old Luxurious Roman Bathhouse Uncovered In The Netherlands

Authored by Maria Mocerino via Interesting Engineering,

The largest Roman bathhouse complex ever discovered in the Netherlands has surfaced, shedding new light on the wealth and importance of the ancient Roman city of Ulpia Noviomagus.

Roman bathhouse complex.Nijmegen

Researchers from the archaeological firms RAAP and BAAC were conducting routine investigations in Nijmegen's Waalfront district, a site slated for new residential development. The excavation, which began in September of last year and will conclude in July, uncovered a public bathhouse, residential blocks, luxury townhouses, streets, and a tower dating back nearly 2,000 years.

"For years, the traces of the Roman past at this location were invisible, hidden deep underground. Now that we are realizing a new living environment here, the past has become visible," said Joost Mulder, BPD's Regional Director for the North-East & Central region, in a press release.

The bathhouse complex, or thermae, covered at least 4,900 square meters, making it the second-largest excavated Roman public bath complex in the Netherlands. Despite centuries of stone removal and reuse following the Roman period, parts of the structure remain exceptionally well-preserved.

Roman history unearthed

The size of the complex reflects the importance of Ulpia Noviomagus - the Roman city that once stood here - which is believed to have received its official status from Emperor Trajan around 100 AD. The discoveries suggest that this area of the city remained active well into the third century AD.

The bathhouse was richly decorated. Its interior walls were clad in marble. The floors were laid with black-and-white limestone tiles. Other rooms featured colorful, painted plaster. Decorative limestone and sandstone moldings adorned the building's facades, while columns made from the same materials enhanced its splendor.

Archaeologists also uncovered extensive drainage systems, flooring, and a hypocaust - a sophisticated Roman underfloor heating system supported by brick pillars. This technology circulated hot air beneath a raised floor, as per Archaeology News. Two stone foundations survive to a height of nearly two meters, making them some of the best-preserved examples of Roman masonry in Nijmegen.

Tens of thousands of artifacts recovered from the site point to the affluent lifestyle that residents enjoyed during the second and third centuries AD.

Among the discoveries are bronze statue fragments, signet rings, a necklace with a gold clasp, coins, and hundreds of bone hairpins used in elaborate Roman hairstyles. Notably, two of the hairpins featured remarkable carvings of cats - one seated and one standing.

However, a bronze bust depicting Bacchus, the Roman god of wine, stood out the most to archaeologists. They believe the object originally formed part of a pitcher or a piece of furniture before later being adapted for use on a weighing scale.

Archaeologists also recovered numerous coins from the reign of Emperor Postumus, who ruled between 260 and 269 AD, providing rare evidence of continued occupation during a relatively poorly documented period.

Integrating the past into the future

Developers and city officials plan to integrate the site's Roman heritage into the future neighborhood, added Archaeology News.

"The link to the past will remain visible in the future as well. For instance, a number of residential buildings will feature a covered walking area with rows of columns. A colonnade just like in Roman times. And developers plan to call the green square in the heart of the area, inspired by the floor plan of the bathhouse complex, Thermenplein. A direct reference to the Roman meeting place that was here some 2,000 years ago," concludes the press release.

Roman bone hairpins found in Nijmegen. Credit: Municipality of Nijmegen / BAAC / RAAP Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 03:30

Fuel Sales Abruptly Halted For Crimean Population As Ukrainian Drones Wreak Havoc

A wave of relentless Sunday drone attacks out of Ukraine on Crimea has resulted in a regional cut off to civilian access to fuel, in another sign that UAV attacks on Russian territory are having serious effect.

Four people were killed in the series of drone strikes on energy and transport infrastructure in the Russian-controlled peninsula, including attacks near Kerch, a key eastern Crimean port city which is a major energy logistics hub.

Reuters/BBC: "Cars queue at a petrol station on the peninsula in early June amid already restricted fuel sales."

"As a result of the enemy's drone attack on the Kerch Peninsula, unfortunately, there are casualties among the civilian population," Crimean Governor Sergey Aksyonov announced.

"According to the latest information, four people were killed, 28 were wounded," he added.

And he also confirmed the fuel crisis for the whole region, saying, "Today, June 21, starting from 09:00 am, fuel sales at Crimean petrol stations have been suspended" - though he added that fuel would only be sold to state enterprises.

He made clear in a Telegram post that starting Sunday morning local time gas stations across the peninsula would stop selling fuel to individuals and businesses. All cash, card and fuel coupons were immediately halted.

Ukraine's President Zelensky boasted of the attacks, stating on social media that "Facilities on both sides of the Crimean Bridge were hit: maritime logistics used to transport oil in the Krasnodar region and an oil depot in temporarily occupied Kerch."

"In addition, military logistics facilities were successfully struck, along with four radar stations belonging to S-400 systems and two Pantsir systems," he wrote.

Crimean governor Aksyonov had also announced that "Further decisions regarding the current situation in the republic's fuel market will be announced at a later date."

Last night, our long-range sanctions targeted the occupiers’ military logistics, oil industry, and air defense. All of this is a just response to Russia’s brutal attacks against our people. I thank the warriors of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Unmanned Systems Forces, the… pic.twitter.com/90APquETQT

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 21, 2026

BBC has separately reported that Kiev "hit a logistics facility for oil transportation in Russia's Krasnodar region, which lies adjacent to Crimea across the Kerch Strait. Local authorities said one person had been killed on a passenger ferry."

Saturday saw a long-range Ukrainian drone attack on an oil refinery in Russia's Tyumen region, which lies over 1,200 miles from the front lines of fighting - a significant reach and first of the war. It demonstrates that Russian anti-air defenses have struggled to intercept small, low-flying UAVs. Hundreds were sent against Crimea on Sunday.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 02:45

This Is The Funniest Thing Ever...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Leftists in the EU who spent years blocking real border enforcement are now whining about a victory party after conservatives pushed through a motion to create powerful tools to remove illegal migrants.

The chamber could not stop laughing. A 'Renew Europe' MEP aligned with French President Emmanuel Macron stood up and demanded punishment for conservative MEPs who gathered on the European Parliament roof, drank heavily, and celebrated the passage of the bloc's toughest-ever deportation reforms.

The presiding officer brushed it off and The room roared with amusement.

Laughter erupts in the European Parliament after Macron's MEP Fabienne Keller tries to get conservative MEPs punished for serious breeches of the rules

She says they met on the Parliament's roof & "drank a lot, a lot" to celebrate passing new laws for deporting illegal migrants pic.twitter.com/2gzLCdcKZT

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 20, 2026

This outburst came days after the European Parliament voted 418 to 218, with 30 abstentions, to approve the new Return Regulation.

Conservative and sovereignist MEPs from the EPP, ECR, Patriots for Europe, and Europe of Sovereign Nations groups supplied the decisive majority.

The measure updates the hopelessly outdated 2008 rules and gives member states real power to enforce removals.

In our earlier video we highlighted the immediate leftist reaction inside the chamber: chants of 'Shame on you' from leftists with chants of 'Send them back' in response from conservatives.

Now they are complaining about a rooftop toast. The contrast could not be clearer. One side delivers results for citizens who have endured years of unchecked arrivals, crime, and welfare strain. The other side throws procedural tantrums and pretends a private celebration violates parliamentary decorum.

They still think they're in Harry Potter fighting Voldemort.

"The era of resistance begins"
How about you slobs start the era of not letting your shirts hang out of your trousers first. Pathetic. https://t.co/IchmcEbTw9

— European Propagandist (@EuropaAdAstra) June 19, 2026

The regulation makes deportation orders issued in one member state valid across the entire EU.

It extends maximum detention periods for those who refuse to leave, removes automatic suspensive effect on appeals in many cases, doubles entry bans to ten years (lifetime for security threats), and allows member states to conclude agreements with third countries for 'return hubs' where rejected migrants can be processed and removed without remaining inside EU territory.

Non-cooperating origin countries face visa restrictions, aid cuts, and trade measures - the same leverage the Trump administration successfully deployed.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni welcomed the outcome as validation of the model she pioneered with Albania.

'We promised Italians we would change Europe, and we did it, with courage, patience, and determination,' she said.

Meloni added, 'This innovative solution has been resisted at every turn by the Italian and European left, but thanks to this government, it has now become a tool available to the whole of Europe.'

MEP Marieke Ehlers of the Patriots for Europe group stated 'This regulation puts the obligation exactly where it belongs: on the illegal migrant... The days of pampering are over. You have no right to stay, which means you have one simple obligation: pack your bags and leave our territory.'

She added that the text hands real power back to national capitals: 'We are taking back control... Almost all provisions give Member States the freedom to go further.'

French EPP negotiator François-Xavier Bellamy called it the end of decades of failure. 'After decades of failure and years of deadlock, Europe is ending its powerlessness in the face of illegal immigration. No one can claim any longer that Europe has no tools to act. The rules are now in place. The responsibility lies with governments to use them.'

In a landmark 418-218 vote, the European Parliament just passed the strictest migration and deportation law in EU history.
When the results were announced, MEPs began chanting "Send them back!" inside the chamber.
The new rules include:
• Deportation orders valid across all… pic.twitter.com/r4zwulNkz7

— Make Europe Great Again – M.E.G.A (@ScaryEurope) June 20, 2026

French President Emmanuel Macron quickly distanced himself at the EU summit in Brussels. He declared that France would neither participate in nor fund third-country return hubs, calling the approach ineffective and contrary to French principles.

French President Emmanuel Macron firmly rejected the creation of migrant "return hubs" in third countries, stating that France will not participate in or support the funding of such outsourcing initiatives.
Speaking in Brussels at the conclusion of a two-day EU summit, Macron… pic.twitter.com/6yU5zjFAms

— Don. Tesman Irabor (@TvslEspana) June 20, 2026

The same Macron who lectures others on European values now refuses to use the very instruments his own parliament helped create. The gap between rhetoric and reality on migration has never been wider.

Globalist pushback has already been initiated as the United Nations voiced concerns that the new return hubs could violate human rights standards.

Critics on the left and in international organisations frame any effective removal policy as inherently cruel, even as European cities continue to absorb the costs of failed integration and repeated criminal acts by rejected or illegal migrants.

The UN warns that new EU migrant rules could violate human rights. Plans to outsource deportation of rejected asylum seekers raise serious concerns. https://t.co/TmYNvesrOx

— The Brussels Times (@BrusselsTimes) June 20, 2026

For years globalist voices insisted that mass low-skilled migration was inevitable, economically necessary, and morally superior.

They dismantled internal borders, expanded asylum loopholes, and attacked any leader who tried to enforce existing law. Return rates stayed dismal. Criminal networks thrived. Public trust collapsed.

Conservative MEPs simply used their growing numbers to force an update that reflects what citizens have demanded for a decade.

The left's response - procedural complaints, accusations of misconduct over a private celebration, and renewed warnings from the UN - reveals the same refusal to accept democratic outcomes that has defined the migration debate from the start.

The laughter in the chamber was not just amusement at a thin-skinned complaint. It was recognition that the excuses have run out.

Europe now possesses the legal tools to remove those with no right to remain. Whether national governments use them remains to be seen, but the parliamentary majority has shifted decisively toward enforcement.

The same forces that once sneered at 'Send them back' as fringe bigotry are watching their own colleagues chant it on the floor. The Overton window did not shift incidentally. It moved because voters across the continent grew tired of policies that prioritised arrivals over safety and sovereignty.

'What happened to multiculturalism preached by European globalists? 'Send Them Back': EU Parliament Passes Major Deportation Reforms, Including Third Country Return Hubs https://t.co/lXulis0ZfS

— Silvio Picardi (@sil37839) June 20, 2026

Europe's conservative MEPs just proved that when they coordinate, they can deliver. The left can keep filing ethics complaints about rooftop drinks. The rest of the continent is focused on results.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 02:00

Peter Thiel's Secret Society Leak Creates A Perfect Target List For Espionage, Influence Operations, And Blackmail

Authored by Pierluigi Paganini via Security Affairs,

Dialog, a private invitation-only organization cofounded in 2006 by billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel, has spent two decades refusing to disclose its membership.

That position became harder to maintain last week when Swiss hacktivist maia arson crimew, known for exposing the US government's No Fly List, found an open directory embedded in the source code of dialog.org that was visible to anyone who viewed the page. WIRED independently verified the contents and obtained the registration list for Dialog's 2026 retreat, scheduled for August 12-16 near Dublin, Ireland.

"A trove of internal records from a secret society for powerful figures in US politics, finance, and tech was left exposed online, WIRED has confirmed, naming participants in its events and revealing sensitive personal details they were assured would stay private," reported Wired. "The group, called Dialog, is a private, invitation-only organization cofounded in 2006 by the billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel. It convenes US officials, foreign government figures, and Silicon Valley executives at off-the-record annual retreats."

The 2026 list names 222 registrants, 87 of them first-time attendees. Others have histories stretching back more than a decade, a handful to the founding itself. None used a government email address, placing their attendance outside public records laws.

The roster is not a list of adjacent power. It's power in direct regulatory relationship with itself. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears alongside Auren Hoffman, Dialog's chairman, who founded location-data broker SafeGraph and identity-resolution firm LiveRamp. Senator Ted Cruz, who chairs the committee overseeing the FTC and its data-privacy authority, is listed in the same directory. Palantir cofounder Joe Lonsdale, whose software runs case management for ICE and data fusion for the Pentagon, appears alongside Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Representative Jim Himes, ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, which oversees agencies Palantir contracts with.

Forbes confirmed additional members including investor Marc Andreessen and investor and former Facebook board member Jim Breyer.

General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's supreme allied commander Europe and head of US European Command, is recorded as having attended Dialog gatherings since 2021.

The session agenda for the 2026 retreat includes "Navigating WWIII," "Battlefield Technologies," "Bring Back Nuclear," and "Build-a-Cult," the last moderated by the founder of the Christian networking site Pray.com. There's also "How's Your Sex Life?" which presumably has a different moderator.

"The website directory names sitting Trump administration officials, two US senators, six members of the Paypal Mafia, a former Middle East chief of intelligence, and a sitting ambassador to the United States, along with the founders and directors of many of the country's largest surveillance, data-broker, and advertising-data companies." Wired continues.

The leaked registration list adds names not in the public directory of 113: Randy Kroszner, former Federal Reserve governor now on the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee; Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO of the Anti-Defamation League; Ryan Stowers, executive director of the Charles Koch Foundation; Roger Myerson, Nobel laureate economist; and a cluster of Google and Google DeepMind executives including Tom Lue, who leads global affairs for the frontier AI division.

The data breach is structurally embarrassing because it was entirely avoidable. The directory was served to any visitor who viewed the page's source code. A separate Dialog page at app.dialog.org presents a sign-in screen with no terms of service, no indication the application is restricted, and no invitation requirement. The records sat in Airtable, a commercial database, and included for each participant their membership status, every retreat attended, biography, home city, and a private access token functioning as a login credential.

Dialog also runs a matchmaking service. Its registration form asks whether participants are "looking for love" and offers to include single respondents in "future matchmaking." A separate site at dating.dialog.org hosts an app pitched as "meaningful connections for exceptional people." The form also collects each registrant's political leaning, which Dialog promised would never be shared.

"That data, and the matchmaking responses, were exposed in the leak." concludes Wired.

The data collected by Dialog could be valuable for criminals or intelligence agencies because it reveals personal vulnerabilities, relationship status, political views, and access to influential networks. Such information can support targeted phishing, social engineering, honey-trap operations, blackmail, or influence campaigns. The risk is amplified because participants are often members of the global elite, making them attractive intelligence targets. Many may be highly accomplished in their fields but still willing to share sensitive personal details in trusted environments, creating opportunities for manipulation and exploitation.

An internal guide for event moderators, also found in the exposed directory, instructs them to remind participants that everything is off the record, keep comments concise and "nonobvious," and model brief introductions to "avoid status signaling" in a room full of senators, dignitaries, and tycoons. The discipline imposed on members apparently didn't extend to basic website security.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 23:20

USAF Seeks 'Dronebuster' Anti-Jammer Gun To Protect Nuclear-Strike Base

Whether it's data centers, critical infrastructure, stadiums, corporate headquarters, or even military bases, the U.S. remains largely unprepared to combat one-way attack drones, including Category 1 through 3 drones, because a critical layer of cheap, scalable counter-UAS technology is missing.

The proliferation of low-cost drones across Eurasian war zones, from the Ukraine-Russia war to the US-Iran conflict in the Middle East, has permanently changed the course of modern warfare. 

One-way attack drones and FPVs have exposed a missing layer of affordable air defense around high-value assets, including military bases, energy infrastructure, data centers, ports, stadiums, and corporate headquarters. This startling development has been a major wake-up call for Western leaders and suggests only one conclusion: a massive procurement wave for counter-UAS technology is likely just ahead.

Last week, Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries arrived at the same conclusion we have been highlighting:

We anticipate one of the biggest lessons of the 2020s will be how affordable drone technology fundamentally reshaped the modern combat environment and set the stage for a reevaluation of the procurement, organization and strategy of ~$3T in annual global military expenditures.

While drones have existed in the modern military apparatus for decades at this point, it was the Ukraine war (as one of the first near-peer conflicts in recent memory) which provided demonstrable evidence of how specifically lightweight and affordable systems could change the paradigm of combat.

The race to secure high-value assets against drones was seen last week when the U.S. Air Force moved to expand counter-drone defenses at one of America's most sensitive nuclear missile bases by issuing a solicitation to purchase a batch of handheld counter-drone electronic warfare guns.

According to Defense Blog, the 5th Contracting Squadron at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota issued a June 18 solicitation to purchase DZYNE Technologies' Dronebuster Block 4 for the 91st Security Forces Group.

The Dronebuster is a rifle-shaped anti-drone jammer that an operator points at an unauthorized drone to disrupt it, rather than shooting it down with a projectile.

"Quotes from vendors are due no later than June 26, 2026, giving the defense industry less than two weeks to respond to a requirement the Air Force has formally described as an operational necessity," Defense Blog wrote in the report.

Why Minot Air Force Base seeks Dronebusters likely hinges on the need for security forces to protect B-52H Stratofortress bombers, nuclear missile infrastructure, and other high-value assets from small drones. Lessons from the US-Iran conflict show how low-cost drones can threaten +$100 million jets, or a multi-million-dollar radar or communications system.

We suspect the procurement cycle for drones and counter-UAS technology is only in its early stages. We detailed how readers can profit from "The Asymmetric Warfare Boom" in a note on Saturday, found here.

Related:

• JPM Call With Axon Reveals Race To Fortify U.S. Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drone Swarms

Dronebuster can be useful against standard FPVs, GPS-dependent drones, and drones with radio links. But against an emerging fiber-optic FPV drone with no RF command link and no GPS dependency, a handheld jammer is useless, suggesting the need for kinetic interceptors. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 22:45

Syria 'Unwilling, Unprepared' To Attack Lebanon & Deal With Hezbollah Despite US Pressure

Via The Cradle

Syrian President and former Al-Qaeda chief Ahmad al-Sharaa is "unprepared and unwilling" to launch a military offensive against Lebanon despite growing US pressure, Israel’s Broadcasting Corporation (KAN) reported days ago. 

KAN cited an informed Syrian source who said that Sharaa is "concerned" that an attack by Damascus against Hezbollah will be seen across the region as "serving" Israel's interests.

This could negatively impact Damascus’s "legitimacy." For now, the self-appointed Syrian president is ruling out an attack against Lebanon and its resistance forces unless Israel decides to pull its forces out of Syria, the report states. 

Israel has rejected withdrawal from both Syria and Lebanon. KAN also said that Turkey – a longtime backer of Sharaa since his days as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, founder and leader of Al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front – has urged Damascus against such an incursion. 

Ankara is reportedly concerned that a Syrian assault on Lebanon would "embolden" Tel Aviv and "strengthen" its position. 

"Trump proposed a framework in which the Syrian military would play a central role in a future effort to disarm Hezbollah," i24 reported on Wednesday.

Lebanese authorities reportedly felt uneasy about the idea during recent US-backed direct talks with Israeli officials, which have taken place despite Lebanon’s legal restrictions.

Additionally, Israeli authorities are reportedly concerned about the effectiveness of a Syrian attack on Hezbollah. 

"Some of the arrangements currently under discussion could ultimately strengthen Hezbollah politically and militarily rather than diminish its influence,” i24 reported.

Sharaa said earlier this week that talk of a Syrian incursion into Lebanon was a “rumor.” “Syria's approach aims to end the war in Lebanon, not to expand it or get involved,” he stressed. 

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on Syria to attack Hezbollah.

Iraqi resistance groups allied with Hezbollah have cautioned the Syrian government and its forces that they will act if Damascus initiates an attack on Lebanon. 

Syria experienced a significant geopolitical change following the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, as Sharaa’s government aligned with Washington and engaged in discussions with Israel. 

The US has largely lifted sanctions on Syria and called Damascus a “partner” in the global fight against ISIS — overlooking Sharaa’s past as an Al-Qaeda leader and earlier as deputy to ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Hezbollah fought in Syria for years with the former government, helping recapture areas from extremist groups like Al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front, Ahrar al-Sham, and others considered by the west as the “Syrian opposition.”

The Nusra Front, led by Sharaa, was rebranded into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and ended up toppling Assad’s government in 2024. HTS and other extremist factions with links to ISIS currently dominate what has become the new Syrian Defense Ministry and military.

ISIS vs. Hezbollah sectarian war 2.0?...

Trump told Fox News that he is close to *empowering* Jolani (Ahmad al Sharaa) to fight the Hezbollah in Lebanon.

This aligns with a string of other recent remarks by Trump that Syria will be ordered to attack Lebanon on behalf of Israeli and US interests. pic.twitter.com/epuq2xMKRu

— Scharo Bajalan (@ScharoBajalan) June 21, 2026

Tom Barrack, US special envoy to Syria and Iraq, threatened Lebanon last year with a Syrian incursion, and said Damascus would “actively assist us in confronting and dismantling … Hezbollah.”

He also said Syria viewed Lebanon as its “beach resort” and would carry out an assault against the country unless Hezbollah is disarmed.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 22:10

Let's Hear It For The Dads

Authored by Silvio Canto via American Thinker,

It’s another Fathers’ Day, and let me say a cheer for our fathers.

I was blessed with a wonderful father, who led by example and taught me all the right values.  He passed away back in late 2015, but I still remember having a little Cuban coffee and enjoying a game on TV.  I would love to have another of those Sunday afternoons back, because I miss them dearly.  We spoke about so much in those moments.

I remember the time that we were watching a news story about people breaking into stores and stealing things.  He looked at me with a very serious face and said, ”Where are their fathers?  No fathers means young men who don’t respect order.”

There is more to fathers than remembering what my father thought of young men acting wild.  

We do have a “father crisis” in many communities in the U.S.

Years ago, Juan Williams, author and Fox News contributor, wrote “The Tragedy of America’s Disappearing Fathers”:

The extent of the problem is clear.

The nation’s out-of-wedlock birth rate is 38%.

Among white children, 28% are now born to a single mother; among Hispanic children it is 50% and reaches a chilling, disorienting peak of 71% for black children.

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, nearly a quarter of America’s white children (22%) do not have any male in their homes; nearly a third (31%) of Hispanic children and over half of black children (56%) are fatherless.

This represents a dramatic shift in American life.

In the early 1960s, only 2.3% of white children and 24% of black children were born to a single mom.

Having a dad, in short, is now a privilege, a ticket to middle-class status on par with getting into a good college.

Fathers’ Day is here. 

 Let’s remember a simple truth: We need men to be responsible fathers now more than ever.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 21:00

Downtown Seattle Lost 30,000 Jobs Since 2020 Payroll Tax: Report

Authored by Dylan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

A new report from the Downtown Seattle Association published June 15 stated that downtown Seattle has lost around 30,000 jobs since 2020, when city leaders passed the “JumpStart” business tax, while neighboring Bellevue has become more attractive for businesses.

“What we have seen in downtown Seattle is not a ‘jump start,’ but instead, a slowdown,” the report stated.

“Seattle has become a tax outlier in the region, and it’s costing the city jobs and tax revenue, while shifting the property tax burden to residents and small businesses, worsening overall affordability in the city.”

The nonprofit membership organization said it conducted an audit comparing the city’s tax environment and business climate with that of Bellevue.

In 2020, the City Council said the “JumpStart Tax,” which currently taxes Seattle businesses that pay more than $9,074,409 on payroll expenses with at least one employee making over $194,452, was to address COVID-19 economic impacts as well as to support existing city services and new affordable housing.

“We are in the midst of a health and economic crisis that even a strong economy like Seattle may not be able to recover from quickly,” Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda said in 2020.

“JumpStart Seattle will ... jump start our recovery with a relief plan that centers workers, small businesses and our most vulnerable community members.”

The report found the tax costs Seattle businesses between $1,450 and $9,390 per employee.

In 2026, the JumpStart tax is projected to bring in $410 million.

Bellevue has no such tax.

The report also showed that Seattle property tax compared to property value had increased nearly 48 percent from $3.79 per $1,000 in 2019, to $5.60 in 2026.

In that same time, Bellevue property tax decreased from $3.72 per $1,000 to $3.12, an approximately 19 percent drop.

It said that downtown Seattle’s office properties have fallen 48 percent in value between 2020 and 2025, while downtown Bellevue’s had increased 7 percent during that same period.

It added that Seattle’s Central Business District had an office vacancy rate of 6.7 percent in 2019, which climbed to 32 percent in 2025, while Bellevue’s rose from 2.5 percent to 24 percent in that period.

“When comparing business tax burdens and broader tax trends in Seattle and Bellevue, the contrast is clear: Bellevue’s more favorable tax climate has made it increasingly attractive to employers and investment relative to Seattle,” the report said.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Seattle City Council but did not receive a response by publication.

Amazon, which is headquartered in Seattle, has been gradually increasing its footprint in Bellevue, as the company said it became the city’s largest employer, growing from 450 employees in 2017 to more than 15,000 this year.

The company’s footprint expansion in Bellevue has also come with significant investment outside of office space. It committed $100 million to fund affordable housing initiatives in Bellevue and $22.6 million for local transportation projects.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 19:50

Meet Steak 'n Shake's First MAHA Officer

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

DALLAS—Lunch at Steak ‘n Shake is served for Michael Boes. The plate in front of him has a grass-fed burger and beef tallow fries. He washes it down with cane sugar Coca-Cola.

“Fast food doesn’t have to mean processed, complicated, or artificial. It used to mean real, simple, and delicious - and it can again,” Boes said.

Michael Boes, Steak 'n Shake's chief Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) officer, in Irving, Texas, on June 15, 2026. Bobby Sanchez/The Epoch Times

Founded in Normal, Illinois, in 1934, Steak ‘n Shake was most known for its steakburgers and hand-dipped milkshakes for decades. Almost a century later, the chain is building its brand around the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement.

The heart of Steak ‘n Shake’s transformation is a bold pledge: to eliminate industrial seed oils from its menu items and shift to cleaner ingredients.

Leading the transformation is Boes, one of the forces behind the 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. In April, he was named the restaurant chain’s first chief MAHA officer.

A former senior adviser within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of the Assistant Secretary of Health, Boes holds a position described by the company as “a new executive role dedicated to advancing nutritional integrity, ingredient transparency, and the long-term health of Steak ‘n Shake customers.”

Sardar Biglari is the chairman and CEO of Biglari Holdings, the owner of Steak ‘n Shake. When announcing the hiring of Boes, Biglari called the position “a sign of our continued commitment to make Steak ‘n Shake the great differentiator in fast food.”

“Michael is ideally suited for such a role, with his deep understanding of nutrition and his experience at the highest level of health policymaking,” Biglari said. “To put it simply, good-tasting food should also be good for you.”

The company announced in May that it would make the switch to “100 percent grass-fed and grass-finished” beef. In March last year, the company announced the switch from seed oils to beef tallow. In February 2026, it said it would remove all microwaves from franchise locations by April, writing in an online post that “quality restaurants don’t need microwaves.”

Steak ‘n Shake prepares fries, tater tots, onion rings, and chicken tenders in 100 percent beef tallow with “no additives, preservatives, or chemicals.”

On its website, the company explained that it has worked with its manufacturer of fries and tots to completely eliminate the vegetable oil formerly used to fry the product before freezing and shipping it to the restaurants. As a result, Steak ‘n Shake’s beef tallow fries and tots are not yet completely free of seed oils, according to the website.

“Transitioning away from seed oils is a journey, and we continue to work with our other suppliers to achieve our goal,” the company said on its website.

The chain uses 100 percent Grade A Wisconsin butter sourced from a family farm and it serves cane sugar Coke rather than drinks that have high fructose corn syrup. Last December, Steak ‘n Shake switched to A2 Milk, which is “100 percent real milk from cows that naturally produce only the A2 protein and no A1,” which may help with digestion, according to A2 Milk’s website.

Boes noted that Steak and Shake is still early in its transformation.

“We took the bold step to say we’re going to drive the demand side in order to impact the supply side,” Boes said.

“The website is a prime example of the transparency and messaging, saying up front that we are making this transformation, but it’s not going to be complete overnight, so please stick with us.”

Boes, who grew up in the Dallas area, earned a bachelor’s degree from Texas Christian University followed by an MBA from Southern Methodist University.

He worked in healthcare technology with a focus on commercial growth for 15 years before joining HHS. He developed expertise in nutrition after addressing personal health challenges.

“I had gut and skin issues, I had trouble putting weight on, and I was on medication for ADD. I didn’t feel healthy,” he said.

Positive changes happened, Boes explained, when he eliminated processed foods and started eating whole foods. In a matter of months, he gained “healthy weight,” added muscle, and felt more energetic.

From that point, he became immersed in reading articles and listening to podcasts about biohacking, which is a do-it-yourself form of personal improvement in which people focus on changing their biology to improve their overall health and well-being.

“The chronic disease epidemic and mental health crisis are tied to what we put into our bodies. I wanted to be a part of influencing positive change in those areas,” Boes said.

After attending President Donald Trump’s inauguration, Boes was driven to work with the new administration, he said.

He made cold calls and sent emails to figures such as Stefanie Spear, who served as the press secretary for Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign and is now Kennedy’s chief of staff. HHS expressed interest, Boes said. After a phone call and two interviews, and learning that they sought private sector professionals, he joined the agency and helped develop the new dietary guidelines.

Boes’s career path evolved once again after a chance meeting with Biglari at the wedding of Alex Bruesewitz, a political consultant and an adviser to Trump.

Biglari told Boes that he wanted to align Steak ‘n Shake with the growing movement of health-conscious consumers.

“I had my opportunity to impact the regulatory side. Now I have this opportunity to prove that not only is there a regulation component to this, but also MAHA can be the cornerstone of a brand,” Boes said.

“That is a powerful story that can impact people and shape the industry,” he added.

Boes said that in his previous role with HHS, he talked to multiple restaurant companies and asked them if there was a way they could work collaboratively with the agency and reform the food environment.

A Steak 'n Shake restaurant in Middletown, Del., on July 26, 2019. The fast food chain in April hired a chief MAHA officer, an industry first. Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 18:40

Explosion At Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial Area Due To "Technical Incident"

A massive explosion rocked Qatar's giant Ras Laffan energy complex. 

BREAKING: HUGE EXPLOSION AT RAS LAFFAN INDUSTRIAL CITY IN QATAR’S LARGEST GAS FACILITY

The blast was so strong it was heard in Bahrain and reportedly felt like an earthquake. pic.twitter.com/4bdCH0eeWd

— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) June 21, 2026

According to Qatar's interior ​ministry, an explosion ‌resulting from a "technical accident" occurred on Sunday at a factory ​in Ras Laffan, an ​industrial city north of the ⁠capital Doha and site of ​the country's core LNG ​processing operations. It said several injuries were reported but no leak that "threatens safety".

Unverified footage circulating on social media shows an explosion at a factory in Ras Laffan Industrial area, located in Qatar. pic.twitter.com/AiqqTxfV6l

— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) June 21, 2026

The ​ministry did not give ​the exact location of the explosion, ‌but ⁠a source with knowledge of the matter said it occurred at the Barzan gas ​plant ​in ⁠Ras Laffan and was due to an "operational error".

In a post on X, Qatar Energy confirmed that in the evening hours of Sunday 21 June 2026, there was an operational incident during the start-up of operations at Ras Laffan Industrial City which resulted in an explosion and fire at Barzan local gas supply facility. It added that emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the fire, which is now under control.

Operational Incident at Ras Laffan Industrial City

QatarEnergy confirms that there was an operational incident during the start-up of operations at Ras Laffan Industrial City which resulted in an explosion and fire at Barzan local gas supply facility in the evening hours of…

— QatarEnergy (@qatarenergy) June 21, 2026

Shortly after the start of the war, Iranian attacks on the Ras Laffan complex crippled some of the most important LNG facilities prompting Qatar to predict that it would take as much as 5 years for the country's LNG production to come back fully online. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 17:30

What History Teaches Us About Why So Many Eventually Flee Socialism

Authored by Armstrong Williams via The Epoch Times,

History is filled with political movements born from noble promises. Few have been more appealing in theory than socialism. At its heart, socialism promises greater equality, economic fairness, and protection for those who struggle in a competitive marketplace. It speaks to the desire for justice and the belief that no person should be left behind.

Yet history also teaches a sobering lesson: While millions have voted for socialism, millions more have ultimately fled from it.

Why?

The answer is not found in campaign slogans or academic theories. It is found in the lived experiences of ordinary people across generations and continents.

Throughout the 20th century, socialist governments emerged across Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Many came to power promising to eliminate poverty, reduce inequality, and place the needs of the people above the interests of the wealthy. In the beginning, those promises often generated enormous enthusiasm. Citizens were told that government planning would be more efficient than free markets, that collective ownership would create fairness, and that centralized control would produce prosperity for all.

The results, however, frequently fell short of the promises.

One recurring problem was the concentration of power. When governments assume responsibility for directing large portions of the economy, political leaders inevitably gain greater control over employment, investment, production, and distribution. Over time, this concentration of authority often extends beyond economics into other aspects of society.

History shows that when governments acquire greater power, citizens frequently lose a measure of independence. Economic freedom and political freedom are often more closely connected than many realize. When a person’s livelihood depends heavily upon the state, dissent becomes more difficult and individual choice becomes more limited.

Another lesson history teaches is that incentives matter.

Human beings respond to rewards, risks, and opportunities. Free-market systems are far from perfect, but they have consistently demonstrated a remarkable ability to encourage innovation, entrepreneurship, and productivity. When individuals are allowed to benefit from their hard work, creativity, and investment, economies tend to grow.

By contrast, heavily centralized systems often struggle to generate the same level of innovation and efficiency. Bureaucracies can become slow, inflexible, and disconnected from local realities. Over time, shortages, inefficiencies, and declining productivity have plagued many state-controlled economies.

This does not mean capitalism is without flaws. It clearly is not. Free markets can produce inequality, abuse, and economic dislocation. They require regulation, accountability, and moral responsibility. But history suggests that replacing markets with extensive government control often creates a different set of problems—problems that can be even more difficult to solve.

Perhaps the most powerful evidence comes from migration patterns.

Throughout modern history, people have overwhelmingly moved toward societies that offered greater economic freedom rather than away from them. From East Germans risking their lives to cross the Berlin Wall to Cubans crossing dangerous waters to Venezuelans fleeing economic collapse, countless individuals have voted with their feet.

This reality deserves careful consideration.

People rarely abandon their homes, families, language, and culture without compelling reasons. When citizens repeatedly leave countries governed by socialist systems in search of opportunity elsewhere, it raises important questions about the long-term sustainability of those systems.

The lesson is not that every policy associated with socialism is inherently wrong. Many democratic societies incorporate social safety nets, public health care programs, retirement systems, and other forms of government support while maintaining market economies and strong democratic institutions.

The real lesson is about balance.

Successful societies tend to recognize both the strengths and limitations of government. They understand that government has an important role in protecting the vulnerable, enforcing the rule of law, and providing essential public services. At the same time, they recognize that prosperity is often driven by individual initiative, private enterprise, innovation, and economic freedom.

As younger generations debate the merits of socialism, they should do so with an appreciation for history rather than romanticized visions of what might be. Good intentions alone do not guarantee good outcomes. Policies must ultimately be judged not by their promises but by their results.

History’s verdict is neither simple nor ideological. It is practical. Again and again, people have demonstrated through their actions that they value freedom, opportunity, and the ability to shape their own destinies. When those things become scarce, many eventually seek them elsewhere.

That is perhaps the most enduring lesson history offers: People may be attracted by promises of equality, but they are often willing to travel great distances—and endure great hardship—in pursuit of liberty.

Today, these lessons are becoming part of the American political conversation. With socialist candidates gaining influence in major cities—two examples being the rise of Councilwoman Janeese Lewis George in Washington, D.C., and the growing prominence of Mayor Zohran Mamdani in New York City—voters are once again debating the proper balance between government intervention and individual enterprise.

Supporters see these movements as a response to rising costs, housing shortages, and economic inequality. Critics see warning signs that history has presented before. Whatever one’s political perspective, the debate should not be driven by slogans or emotion alone. It should be informed by the experiences of nations that have already traveled this road.

The harsh lessons of history are not that compassion is dangerous or that government has no role to play. Rather, they remind us that concentrated power, diminished economic freedom, and excessive dependence on the state often carry consequences that emerge only over time.

America’s future will not be determined by labels such as “capitalist” or “socialist.” It will be determined by whether we preserve the freedom, opportunity, innovation, and personal responsibility that have long defined the nation’s success while ensuring that those who struggle are not left behind.

History remains our greatest teacher. The question is whether we are willing to learn from it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 17:30

 

 

This past Spring, I had about 6 weeks of mad travel. Especially so, for someone who isn’t much of a road warrior. But my travels were nothing compared to my buddy Marshall’s.

My spring fling looked something like this:

-Grand Cayman (5 days; last minute getaway from NY winter)
-FutureProof Miami
-La Jolla, CA (surprise 50th Wedding Anniversary)
-Road Trip (see below)
-San Francisco, CA for Live Masters in Business/RWM client trip
-Montreal (overnight)

The Caymans and La Jolla were personal travel; everything else was work-related. And in the middle of all this was an unusual road trip. Actually, the first of its kind – part of a 48-state, cross-country run in a 12-cylinder classic Ferrari.

There is a story behind this.

I have known Marshall for almost as long as he has been an emerging markets manager (decades). He worked at a large shop, where he put up very impressive numbers — especially getting Grexit dead right. As so often happens, the big shop got gobbled up by an even bigger shop.

And despite having better returns across every metric, the acquirer decided it could do without Marshall, perhaps in favor of its own larger (but chronically underperforming) EM funds.

His lengthy “Garden Leave” became early retirement.

But Marshall is not much of a gardener. He’s more of a traveler, having visited nearly 100 countries. He had also been a competitive Formula Enterprise racer. He began as a Spec Miata driver and, after strong finishes, worked his way up to racing nationally on America’s most storied tracks. Mind you, this was his hobby, not his job.

So what does a bored five-star fund manager do when he realizes financial independence? Something no one else has ever done before:

As it turns out, no one has ever driven a 12-cylinder Ferrari across all 48 contiguous United States. The closest account we could find was the Magnum P.I. Ferrari 308 GTS being driven cross-country by P.J. Rourke so it could be shipped to Hawaii.

But that was 1) A brand-new car; B) with only 8 cylinders; iii) and not across all 48 states.

So Marshall spent a year deciding what car would be most suitable for this adventure, then hunting down the best version he could find. He went out and found a 2003 Ferrari 575M. It’s a classic V12 up front, rear-drive, F1 transmission, GT cruiser. Lots of power and handling, but designed for long highway trips, not the track. It took less than six months to get everything mechanical sorted out.

It took less than six months to get everything mechanical sorted out.

He then meticulously planned how to reach all 48 states, but not much more than the first couple of nights’ accommodations. One mid-trip service was scheduled in Seattle, and a lengthy list of Ferrari specialists along the route was assembled.

Oh, and where were the greatest back roads, scenic byways, twisty mountain passes, auto museums, and cool national parks along the way?

He shared his itinerary and planned routes with a few of us.

On the day he left Boston, I was about to have a few days of nothing major on my calendar. I recorded a podcast at Bloomberg and hopped on an Amtrak from Moynihan Station to Poughkeepsie. Marshall picked me up on the first day of his adventure.

From Upstate New York, we meandered, taking in the sights and discussing the journey ahead. On the first night, we stayed at a small motel/dump. Despite the pleasant April weather, we were shocked at the ice-crusted Ferrari in the morning, which had endured 24-degree, overnight temps.

Marshall is good company; you don’t want to be cooped up in a small cabin for nearly 24 hours a day, four straight days with just anyone.  (I had it much easier than he did…)

We traversed some amazing scenery, including a few parks and waterfalls, making it to Pennsylvania the next evening. On Thursday, we toured Gettysburg, Antietam, and several other Civil War and Revolutionary War battlefields. Botanical gardens, lakes, and mountains were also part of the scenery. Into New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia and then Virginia, where I jumped a quick flight home.

That was just 4 days – Marshall kept going for another 51 days straight.

A lot of his pals were kept apprised of this insanity throughout each stage before and during this epic adventure. Several of his pals were able to meet him for anywhere from one to ten days. During the 8-week trip, he sent out regular missives – a beautifully written and photographed travelogue that I am urging him to publish somewhere.

The trip made me consider going cross-country with the boss lady. Drive to California, the slow route in one of the fun cars. We shall see…

Check out the video at the top. Some of my photos are below.

Truly, a once-in-a-lifetime experience!

 

 

 

Pougkeepsie

Tight Squeeze

Your Captain

Our first night led to a frozen Ferrari

Gettysburg, Antietam and more

 

I love this idea:

    

American at its finest

The post Epic Road Trip appeared first on The Big Picture.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Strikes Down Race-Based Scholarships As Unconstitutional

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down a state-funded scholarship program that awarded financial aid based on the race of college students. The Democrat-controlled court followed the precedent laid out by the United States Supreme Court in finding that Gov. Tony Evers and the state were violating the Equal Protection Clause of the United States Constitution.

Two of the most liberal justices, however, wrote a concurrence denouncing the bar on the use of race for such scholarships.

If Democrats are able to pack the Supreme Court as demanded by many party leaders, this concurrence is an example of the likely changes that a packed court will bring in reversing anti-discrimination and other rulings.

The Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty represented the taxpayers in this successful challenge of the Wisconsin Minority Undergraduate Retention Grant Program.

That program administered taxpayer-funded grants of up to $2,500 per academic year to eligible students of Black American, American Indian, Hispanic, or certain Southeast Asian backgrounds.

The state paid out roughly half a million dollars in scholarships, now found to be racially discriminatory.

Citing the 2023 U.S. Supreme Court decision Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, the Court reaffirmed that “The Constitution requires that every person ‘must be treated based on his or her experiences as an individual — not on the basis of race.’”

While many have heralded the new bright line against racial discrimination in higher education, two of the most liberal justices, Chief Justice Jill Karofsky and Susan Crawford, lamented the loss of racially discriminatory programs.

In her concurrence, Chief Justice Karofsky captured the sweeping, open-ended rationales used for such programs:

“Why have we not learned from our past? Why are we not willing to recognize the harms this country has caused to those who are marginalized, disempowered, or disenfranchised? Why, instead of wielding the Equal Protection Clause as a sword against racism, do we employ it to shield against the promise of equality for all? The answer appears to be because we have failed to fully recognize how societal and governmental practices have long continued to enforce a preference for White Americans and to burden Black Americans and those of other disadvantaged races or backgrounds.”

These justices would continue race-based programs indefinitely under the claim that there is a “preference for White Americans” in programs that focus purely on academic achievement or specific non-racial criteria.

The two justices quote from the dissent of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson that requiring race-neutral rules is just more “let-them-eat-cake obliviousness” by a white privileged society.

She added, “I fully recognize and acknowledge that I am bound by the precedent set forth in SFFA and other cases decided by the U.S. Supreme Court…However, I also choose to write separately. I do so because I find it impossible to ignore the truths that Justice Jackson identifies.”

Notably, those “truths” from the Jackson dissent have been challenged as containing glaring false claims.

I have previously discussed my disagreements with Jackson and her jurisprudence, including her dissent in the SFFA case. However, this concurrence vividly shows the jurists whom the Democrats could call upon to pack the Supreme Court to reverse decisions like the one in SFFA.

With various Democratic leaders now openly pledging to pack the Court to reverse such decisions, the 2028 election is becoming a referendum on the future of an institution that has proven key to maintaining this Republic for 250 years.

Democratic politicians and pundits have made clear that they need the immediate control of the Supreme Court to carry out an agenda that would be struck down as unconstitutional. That includes reversing core constitutional rulings. The Karofsky concurrence offers a glimpse into our future if we allow the Court to be the object of a political hostile takeover.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 16:20

Feminists Are Increasingly Joining "Witchcraft Communes" To Fill The Spiritual Void

In the past 70 years, the subject of the Salem Witch Trials has been hijacked by the political left as a historic example of the authoritarian nature of the "patriarchy".  Arthur Miller used the trials as an allegory for "anti-communist hysteria" in his famous 1953 play, The Crucible.  As we now know, however, Joseph McCarthy was mostly right when he warned about an insidious and organized Marxist takeover of America's social and educational institutions. 

A more nuanced historic analysis shows that witchcraft was indeed a problem in the colonies just as it was a problem in Europe.  Not so much because of "black magic" or dark curses, but because "witches" were often early representations of social malcontents causing problems in Christian communities just as they cause problems in the western world today.

There were false accusations, there's no doubt.  But the narrative that most or all witch burnings were unjustified is simply false.

The reason women (and some men) were accused of being witches and burned at the stake was because they willfully engaged in highly destructive anti-social behaviors.  The local witch was often the village abortionist, a seller of poisons, and the town prostitute or harlot plying her "trade" at a time when there was zero tolerance for this kind of behavior.

It should be noted that the practice of casting out or executing sociopaths, psychopaths and other people with destructive social tendencies (considered black magic) is common among religious groups around the world, not just in Puritan towns and Christian society.  This includes Native American tribes that feminists tend to idolize.  

When human beings lived in small villages, broken and dangerous people were much easier to identify and remove before they did significant damage.  In the new era of metropolitan isolation within mass population centers, they easily blend into the crowd.  Sometimes they are even celebrated as "visionaries" by Hollywood and the media.       

Modern feminists proudly draw connections to the subversive world of witches because they tend toward delusional fantasies of dominance.  Women, by their biological nature, lack any real ability to project power, so they fabricate notions of magical influence in their minds.  Some of the most popular women's trends today revolve around concepts of New Age "manifestation", which is just a modern way of believing in magic.

It's not surprising that feminists in the US in 2026 are flocking to "witchcraft communes", an idea recently applauded in a expose by The Guardian.  The outlet notes:

"Witchcraft retreats...have proliferated across the US and Europe over the last decade. The practice they’re built around resists easy definition. Equal parts ancient folk magic, herbal remedies and self-soothing rituals, it encompasses everything from the spellcasting done by self-directed pagans to solitary practitioners who scatter protective salts around their homes. If you buy a crystal, that’s witchcraft. If you practice manifestation, that’s witchcraft..."

"The retreat boom was foreshadowed by an interest in witchcraft that has grown since the counterculture movement in the 1960s, says Helen Berger, a Harvard Divinity School-based sociologist of religion and one of the leading scholars of contemporary paganism. While it’s hard to really identify a single catalyst driving women to witchcraft, Berger sees a pattern: spikes in alternative spirituality tend to coincide with spikes in anti-authoritarianism. In 1968, for example, several feminist groups co-opted occult imagery, adopted the acronym Witch..."

The reason witchcraft appeals so much to women on the political left is because leftist movements operate on the same value system - Meaning, they have no values.  The problem is, Atheism leaves an emotional and spiritual void, leaving people desperate for answers to questions that scientific explanation does not satisfy.  The occult promises people answers, but without all those nasty rules and responsibilities commonly attached to Christianity.

    

In other words, witchcraft is a religion for people who think they are above moral obligation.  People who think they can revolt against the natural order.  In this way, witchcraft and feminism are fundamentally the same thing.  The Guardian continues:

"Clauré hosts at least two witchcraft retreats a year, in Savannah, Georgia and Salem, Massachusetts; prices run anywhere from $2,700 to $5,200 to attend. She says women are searching for something beyond the slumber party Ouija board rituals that loosely inspired her retreats in the first place.  “The patriarchy is not good for anybody, men or women,” Clauré says. “Women have been inherently drawn to [witchcraft spaces] after being demonized or called hysterical or stigmatized. We’re so fucking sick of it that we’re gonna do things our way, whether you call it crazy or not.”..."  

"“If you look at the larger social gestalt right now, in which power is being systematically taken away from women and queer people, the traditional witch is the opposite of ‘right’ society,” says Sabina Magliocco, a professor of anthropology and religion at the University of British Columbia and a former Guggenheim fellow. “But if ‘right’ society is depriving women of rights, is excluding women, is saying that it is perfectly fine to sexually abuse women, that there aren’t going to be any consequences, then maybe being the opposite of right society is aligning with the forces of justice.”"

It's impossible to distinguish between the political rhetoric of modern witchcraft and feminists; they are symbiotic.  Fantasies of victimhood usually coincide with societal expectations.  Liberal women see basic laws, social norms and meritocracy as "oppressive".  But really, they are narcissists who refuse to accept that the entire world does not revolve around them and their wishes.  This is who witchcraft appeals to. 

The wider implications are serious, and not because these women have any real magical powers.  Rather, feminism and similar movements are a psychological plague that spreads, rotting nations from within.  If they face backlash it's not because they are female or queer, it's because they deliberately engineer disruption and encourage degeneracy that breaks society down.  They revel in chaos. 

The witches of old were burned at the stake for such behavior; behaviors which the "Patriarchy" kept in check before they infested the greater community.  Feminists are lucky that they're only mocked or shunned in modern times.         

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 15:45

With Just 2 Weeks To Go Until 250th July 4th Celebration, How Much Higher Will Trump Pump Stocks

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Getting Ready for the Most Beautiful HUGE Long Weekend Ever

I hope you are all enjoying the Juneteenth long weekend and Father’s Day. It seems like we just had a long weekend (because we did) and that another long weekend is almost upon us (because it is). While the 4th of July is always special, this being the 250th celebration of Independence is a big deal. I think the President will do everything in his power to make it a big deal. More on that in a moment.

The Deal, or Extended Ceasefire, or MOU

Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group weighed in on the Iran deal on Thursday in the Signing of the MOU. That followed up on the Academy Podcast (which can also be found on iTunes and Spotify), recorded before details of the MOU were known, but covered much of what happened. A good listen if you are driving anywhere today! I’m sure the kids in the back seat would appreciate it.         

Over the weekend, the fragility of the deal is there for everyone to see! If this seems even more like a band-aid solution to get oil flowing while deciding how serious Iran is to committing to terms we want, while we determine if we are willing to re-escalate, then that is probably what it is! Academy will be keeping a close eye on developments. 

The Fed and Rates 

As discussed in our post-FOMC report The Warsh Task Forces, I think he did an excellent job at his first meeting. Rather than coming across as dovish and risking losing control of the long end of the yield curve, he not only hammered home on inflation (squarely placing the blame on prior decisions by the Fed, amongst other things), but he also created task forces, that by and large made sense. If I could get picked to go on any task force, I would beg and plead to be allowed to be part of the Data Sources task force. As anyone who has read the T-Report for a long time (it has to be approaching 15 years) knows, we consistently argue about Garbage In, Garbage Out. That we make so many important decisions on data that seems jumbled together at best, and outright wrong at worst. My favorite targets are: 

• The entire collection process for the NFP data. Surveys? Really? Can’t we offer some reduction on payroll tax in return for providing timely payroll information? It wouldn’t be perfect, but would create a lot less noise around a large percentage of the work force. 
  • The Household Survey is deemed so wildly inaccurate that they don’t even highlight the job changes in that survey, but they use it for calculating the Unemployment Rate?
  • The birth/death model. We have argued again and again that this is a source of so many revisions because it does not capture what EIN (Employment Identification Number) requests mean in a “gig” or “side hustle” economy! 
• CPI, starting with Owners’ Equivalent Rent. It has built in lags that only sample a fraction each month. It is still based on single family homes, rather than apartments. It is an estimate of what a homeowner could get if they rented. With so many indices out there showing real-time rent (including one the Cleveland Fed developed) it is time to ditch this. Though, since it is in CPI, it requires an act of Congress to change, since it impacts Social Security. Seems like a no-brainer to me, but wouldn’t bet on this no-brainer being fixed any time soon.
  • According to the CPI data Urban Medical Health Insurance costs the same today as it did back in 2019. I couldn’t say that with a straight face, yet it is part of CPI. If you wonder why many argue that the inflation numbers don’t match the real world, this would be pretty high on my list. My gut feel is that for most people (and corporations) health insurance premiums have gone up at least 25% (according to Grok) and that still seems low.
  • While Truflation has its own set of potential flaws, it does offer some useful insights and seems like just one of many alternative sources the government should look at.

At the risk of burying the lede, as we published on Wednesday after the meeting, we are moving to neutral on rates, rather than being bearish. Warsh removed some near-term tail risk to the long end.

Reducing the tail risk is significant and the MOVE index (a measure of implied volatility in the bond market) dropped to pre-Iran levels (the MOU helped as well, but the steep drop Thursday can likely be more attributed to Warsh than Iran).

Space and AI

If you missed last weekend’s report on the AI Revolution and Space – The NOW Frontier, it is a great time to catch up.

The topic generated a lot of discussion, with a good mix of people hating on the AI Revolution assessment – almost equal numbers of those who argued I was too pessimistic mixed with those arguing I was too optimistic

The 250th 4th of July Celebration

Why did we use “beautiful” and “HUGE” in the title? Because those are words the President likes to use when pumping something up. Whether we are talking about the ball room, or the reflecting pool, the President has been doing and saying things to spruce up D.C. We can argue (or choose not to argue) about hosting a “sporting” event on the White House Lawn. But this President is a showman, who likes a spectacle and the 250th anniversary is real, important, and is highly likely something that the President wants to go down in history for.

The reality is that the President by almost every poll is near or at the bottom of his approval ratings. I tried to use some of the Nate Silver polling info, but it was not conducive to cut and paste so I went with the Real Clear Politics one (not because I know much about it, but it was readily available on Bloomberg).

What do we know, with a high degree of certainty, about President Trump?

• He likes winning! We all like winning, but he revels in it! He still wins club championship after club championship with a swing no one would try to mimic. He loves winning! The bigger and more beautiful the win, the better!
  • Current polls don’t show him as “winning.”
• His attention and focus have been on Iran, but he can now shift his attention elsewhere.
  • Trump 2.0 delegates better than Trump 1.0, but nothing gets done as quickly as when he shifts his attention and focus to it. With the Iran war more or less behind us (or behind him, for now), look for him to focus on the Domestic Economy and things he can do to get his numbers higher!
  • I am going to mention Intel. From ProSec 2026 we published an entire paragraph on INTC (which is unusual for the T-Report, but was important enough that we did it). Here is the line that I want to highlight on why we were so bullish on this stock:
    • I find it difficult to see a world where the government doesn’t try to support the taxpayers’ investment in this company.
  • My thesis went well beyond that, but that is the part that we wanted to highlight! I strongly believed that the admin would support the taxpayers’ investment. On Thursday, the President put out a Truth Social post linking Apple to using Intel more. I am not sure either company confirmed it, but with only 2 weeks to go before the 250th anniversary, maybe this sort of “pump” by the President is going to be the norm?
  • We mention other companies and industries in that report (far more tickers than usual). I think we should revisit all of those tickers and a renewed focus and emphasis from D.C. on ProSec.

ProSec is going global. Europe is nearing a “Whatever it Takes” moment. Initially they started that march to the precipice kicking and screaming, while being pushed by the President and geopolitical risk. Europe is still by and large being pushed in this direction, with less kicking and screaming. There is increasing evidence that there are finally elements of leadership pulling them in that direction! (This applies to Canada too).

Bottom Line

The outlook for rates is more benign than at any time in the past few months. I’m not yet bullish, but certainly not bearish here. Look for the President to make announcements and pronouncements (I think there is a subtle difference) in the coming days as he almost certainly wants stocks to be at an all-time high and his ratings to be higher, as we celebrate America’s 250th anniversary of winning Independence!

Hope you are enjoying this long weekend and Father’s Day and now the U.S. just needs to figure out a way to wedge in a long weekend in August! We could get used to monthly long weekends.

And once again, thanks for all of your support and thoughtful feedback as the world is evolving rapidly and Academy, with its Geopolitical Intelligence Group, is positioned to help navigate that evolution sectors and focus again on what areas will do well with

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 15:10

Financial Times Hypes SpaceX's Dismal ESG Rating By MSCI, But Really Nobody Cares

The Financial Times appears eager to frame MSCI's decision to assign SpaceX the "lowest possible ESG rating" as a major reputational blow. However, the real story is that the entire ESG movement on Wall Street has imploded, and anyone grounded in reality and common sense has increasingly viewed the whole woke era as counterproductive.

"The triple C assessment means SpaceX has the same score as that awarded to the Russian state on MSCI's ESG government rating scale in the wake of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine," FT journalist Ramsay Hodgson wrote. 

This same ESG ratings regime gives triple-A ratings to oil majors and major defense companies, while giving one of America's most important rocket and space companies a bottom-tier grade. That only suggests there are major flaws in the ESG scoring model.

Here are the publicly visible MSCI ESG ratings: 

Oil/Gas

Defense

"Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn't make the list!" Musk wrote on X several years ago. 

Musk is right... 

• Companies With Good ESG Scores Pollute Just As Much As Those With Low Ones, New Analysis Finds

Here's what X users are saying:

Just checked. MSCI has handed Lockheed Martin the exemplary AA rating. They want you to believe the arms manufacturer has a more ethical and sustainable business model than a space exploration venture. Twisted.

— Ejder Memis (@_sHx_) June 21, 2026

None gives a flying fuck about ESG except people who want the west to fail.

— Packet (@PacketGroove) June 21, 2026

Elon Musk will never again be in the cool kids club and this is just another example of that. ESG is just another clique with its set of rules designed to welcome those firms that shackle themselves with silly rules.

It is great that Musk and Luckey as well, refuse to bend…

— Ken Hannig (@FlushingKenny) June 21, 2026

Its Time to permanently excise the term ESG from polite conversation, and ridicule those who use it.

— JayBlake (@punishedMTL) June 21, 2026

Right back at you MSCI pic.twitter.com/8tDnWjcmXt

— boog (@steevwithv) June 21, 2026

Proves to me that ESG is a f-ing joke.

— Matt (@grghost) June 21, 2026

Musk added, "ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phone social justice warriors."

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 14:35

Trump Is Furious With Senate GOP, Puts Thune In His Crosshairs

Donald Trump does not like the word "no." He likes it even less when it comes from John Thune, the Senate majority leader whose job description apparently does not include telling the president what he wants to hear. That dynamic has now spilled into public view, and the fallout says as much about the state of the Republican Party as it does about any single piece of legislation.

The flashpoint is the SAVE America Act. The House passed it back in February, but it remains stalled in the Senate due to the Democrats’ filibuster.

The SAVE America Act would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, mandate voter ID at polling places, and sharply curtail mail-in voting. For Trump and a sizable chunk of the conservative base, this is common-sense election integrity; polls show tremendous bipartisan support for it.

Trump has grown tired of waiting. Last week, he tied the SAVE America Act to FISA Section 702 reauthorization, the surveillance authority that lets intelligence agencies monitor foreign nationals without a warrant. Congress let that authority lapse for the first time since 2008, and Trump made clear he intends to use it as leverage. "I will not approve FISA without THE SAVE AMERICA ACT going along with it," he posted on Truth Social. That is not a man asking nicely.

Thune was unmoved.

"The president has his own mind, makes his own decisions," he said. "So do we."

Read that as you like, but it does not sound like a man rushing to fall in line.

According to a person close to Trump who spoke with The Wall Street Journal, the president's frustration stems from being told “no” rather than "no, let me try." 

A Thune ally pushed back on the Journal's reporting, arguing the majority leader is not the real obstacle here. Trump simply does not have the votes. That is a fair point, and it gets at something deeper than personal chemistry: the SAVE America Act faces a math problem before it faces a Thune problem.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told the Journal that Thune is "telling the president the truth" and that "the problem is the president doesn't like hearing that when it frustrates what he wants to do." Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) offered a gentler diagnosis, describing the clash as one of temperament rather than substance. Trump's "skill set is to vocalize everything," she said, while Thune's is "more quietly engaging." She added, "I don't think they're mutually exclusive." Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) never one to pass up a colorful comparison, likened Trump to the ruthless sales trainer from Glengarry Glen Ross during a closed-door GOP lunch, according to Punchbowl News. On the Senate math itself, Kennedy was characteristically blunt with the Journal: "I mean, I want a Porsche for my birthday. I'm not going to get it."

Trump has not limited himself to public jabs, either. He summoned House Speaker Mike Johnson to the White House to discuss personnel disputes and the lapsed FISA law, conspicuously leaving Thune out of the conversation. He has also been quietly polling Republican senators on their views of Thune's leadership, a clear signal that his patience with the majority leader is running thin.

Sources also told The Daily Caller that Thune privately admitted to GOP senators during a closed-door lunch on Wednesday that some Republicans simply will not back the SAVE Act because they cannot stand Trump, regardless of the bill's merits.

The admission reportedly set off a heated exchange between Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), the bill's chief sponsor, and colleagues, including Cornyn, who challenged Lee's push alongside Thune.

"Yeah, that totally happened," one source familiar with the meeting told The Daily Caller. Thune's office denied the account outright, calling it "a baseless claim" that is "unequivocally untrue."

A president quietly canvassing his own party and questioning the Senate majority leader’s leadership is a power struggle over who actually runs the Republican agenda. Trump clearly sees Thune as a roadblock he's preparing to remove.

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 13:25

Iran's Araghchi Says Talks Delivered "Major Progress" To End Lebanon War, Will Continue For Rest Of Week Summary

• Round 1 ends: The US and Iran made “encouraging progress” in talks on a peace deal and will continue technical-level discussions this week, mediators
• Iran defiant, sees itself in strong position: Ghalibaf rejects US threats and links talks to a Lebanon ceasefire.
• Trump raises stakes via some typical Truth Social lashing out: Warns on Hormuz, Lebanon, and keeps military options on the table.
• Nuclear progress?: Some reports say not addressed, others suggest framework already being worked on.

//--> //--> //--> Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Yes 12% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

US and Iran Make “Encouraging Progress” In Talks On Peace Deal, Will Continue Technical-Level Discussions This Week

Contrary to earlier reports from Iran media that US and Iran talks had concluded hours earlier, Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran made “encouraging progress” in talks on a peace deal and will continue technical-level discussions this week, mediators said, even as President Donald Trump again threatened strikes if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel.

“Encouraging progress has been made including the creation of a mechanism for further technical talks,” mediators Qatar and Pakistan said in a joint statement. The parties agreed on a roadmap toward reaching a final deal within 60 days.

The sides also established a communication line to avoid incidents and miscalculation, with the aim of ensuring safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, the mediators said. They also agreed to create a “de-confliction cell” involving the parties and Lebanon to help ensure adherence to the cessation of military operations there.

After rising in early trading following reports that Iran (almost but not really) had walked out on talks, crude oil turned lower and US stock-index futures pared losses after the statement.

Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X: "Tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War. Oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran. 1st real test: Lebanon deconfliction cell" the post said.

Tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War. Oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran.

1st real test: Lebanon deconfliction cell https://t.co/q0okD2qwSO

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) June 22, 2026

Things got off to a confusing start Sunday when Iranian media reported that Iran halted talks over Trump’s latest threat. As the meetings got underway, Trump said in a social media post that he would strike Iran again if it doesn’t “immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble.”

He also warned Iran that the US might start collecting tolls if there’s no deal. Speaking Sunday to Fox News, Trump said he told Iranian leaders directly that if they close Hormuz, “You won’t even make it back” to Iran, using an expletive.

Some Fireworks

Al Jazeera is reporting that talks have 'concluded' - but is this in actuality a premature conclusion given all the tension and heated issues of disagreement which came to the forefront?

• GHALIBAF: THEY'D BE BETTER OFF BEING CAREFUL W/ THEIR REMARKS
• IRAN'S GHALIBAF: WE DON'T ATTACH ANY SIGNIFICANCE TO US THREATS
• IRAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER GHALIBAF COMMENTS ON X
• IRAN WILL END TALKS W/ US IF ISRAEL WON'T LEAVE LEBANON: TASNIM
• IRAN SAYS TRUMP'S THREAT IS A 'BLATANT VIOLATION' OF MOU

Below is a machine translation of what Iran's lead negotiator just issued on X as the day in Switzerland came to an end (also, another translation)...

"Do they not realize that if their threats actually worked, they wouldn't find themselves in today's position of desperation? We don't take American threats seriously.

They should be careful about what they say. Our armed forces stand ready to answer them in other ways. They can keep talking—it's we who take action."

This is immediately on the heels of Trump playing 'bad cop' to Vance's good cop, who has expressed some cautious optimism on Sunday from Switzerland. Bloomberg is reporting that the nuclear file was not dealt with in today's engagement.

The fact that the Swiss event happened at all can be called advancement on some level at least...

This is historic!

Not because US and Iranian diplomats haven't met face to face before. Or that they haven't been on camera before (they were regularly during the JCPOA talks)

But never at the Vice President level!

You can see both Aragchi and JD Vance in this clip. pic.twitter.com/jeNBPeQmgr

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) June 21, 2026

Rumors of Iranians already calling it quits are false, reports Axios:

A diplomat attending the talks in Switzerland claims the Iranian delegation hasn't left and talks between the U.S. and Iran are still ongoing https://t.co/oQ1UkXwqYv

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 21, 2026

 

Trump Reminds Iran Of 'Harder' Military Options On Table

With Vance and Witkoff in Switzerland, President Trump is still issuing some US redlines via Truth Social, and via apparent 'official leaks' - and quite quickly - through the press.

Trump is warning the Iranians on the sticking points of Hormuz closure and the Lebanon crisis. He has newly threatened on Sunday to hit Iran again if it can't constrain its proxies, namely Hezbollah, in Lebanon. In parallel, Tehran is demanding that Washington reign in Israel. A fresh Sunday Truth Social... brief but firm:

And more on some fresh reported warnings and pressure coming from Trump:

"You close it and you won't have a country." President Trump said he told Iranian officials about the Strait of Hormuz. "You won't even make it back to your fu*king country."

"We may take over the Strait, if we have to," Trump said. "If they don't make a deal, we'll collect… pic.twitter.com/cErvdjCJmK

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 21, 2026

As the American delegation continues the high-stakes negotiations in Switzerland aimed at de-escalating, the White House is projecting cautious optimism while simultaneously reminding Tehran that military options remain firmly on the table.

Speaking as talks entered a critical phase, Vice President JD Vance said Sunday from Switzerland Washington has "made great progress over the last few hours" and expects "additional progress in the coming hours," describing the negotiations as an opportunity to "turn over a new leaf" in US-Iran relations. Vance emphasized that the administration's preference is not to return to the cycle of confrontation, adding that the US is willing to fundamentally transform ties with Iran if Tehran permanently abandons its nuclear ambitions.

"The question is how much more we can achieve in the Middle East," Vance said, while expressing confidence regarding the Lebanon front and signaling satisfaction with ongoing efforts to contain broader regional escalation.

"Better Watch His Mouth": Trump to Iran President via Media

Yet Trump has just delivered a stark reminder of the consequences should negotiations fail. According to Fox News, Trump warned Iranian officials that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be an existential mistake, reportedly telling Tehran that it "won't have a country" if it attempts to choke off global energy flows, in the segment above. Trump also issued a personal warning to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, saying he "better watch his mouth," while reports indicated the president used unusually blunt language during discussions with Iranian intermediaries over the strategic waterway.

President Trump spoke with the Iranians overnight warning them not to close the Strait.

"You close it and you won't have a country," Trump said he told Iranian officials. "You won't even make it back to your fu*king country."

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 21, 2026

Perhaps most notably, Trump reiterated that he retains a "60-day option" and can "do whatever" he deems necessary after that period expires, a statement widely interpreted as preserving the possibility of renewed military action. The president also reportedly threatened additional strikes against Iran should Tehran's regional proxies in Lebanon resume attacks or undermine the emerging diplomatic framework.

The result is a familiar carrot-and-stick approach as talks are unfolding under the shadow of explicit US military threats and a rapidly approaching deadline that could determine whether the region moves toward détente or another round of escalation. But Iran has also made known that it is ready of a long war, but will Trump be willing to risk enduring the political and economic fallout?

Qatari, Pakistani Top Leaders Present, Optimistic Initial Statements

Qatar's Foreign Ministry has formally confirmed the launch of the talks between the United States and Iran with the mediation of Qatar and Pakistan in Switzerland, with the Iranian delegation headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

US Vice President JD Vance is leading the American side along with envoy Steve Witkoff. Also gathered at the Buergenstock Resort Lake Lucerne, near Stansstad, are Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Qatar has expressed "its aspiration that these meetings will lead to the conclusion of a comprehensive and permanent agreement addressing all aspects covered in the Memorandum of Understanding." Iran has reiterated it wants a comprehensive settlement and final end to the war. But it also demands a final Lebanon-Israel peace settlement be linked in. Already there could be an inkling of progress on the nuclear front:

• PAKISTAN:US, IRAN AGREED ON REDUCTION OF ENRICHED URANIUM LEVEL
• PAKISTAN:IRAN'S ENRICHED URANIUM TO BE REDUCED FROM 60% TO 0.7%
• IRAN PRESIDENT SAYS QATAR TO RELEASE $6B AS TALKS START: IRNA

Screengrab via Government of Pakistan footage

The last time Vance sat physically across from Iran's lead negotiator Ghalibaf was a full ten weeks ago, in mid-April. Interactions appear to initially be only through intermediaries, which will build up to face-to-face meetings, as happened in prior failed rounds. 

What to Expect in 1st Round Format

Qatar's foreign ministry has previewed the following planned format to the opening of the talks as follows:

• The ministry statement says “specialized technical and expert groups have been formed to negotiate the terms of the final agreement, which will cover all aspects of the Memorandum of Understanding” between the US and Iran.
• “Additionally, follow-up groups have been established to oversee the implementation of the Memorandum, monitor progress achieved, and work toward the conclusion of the final agreement,” it added.
• “This reflects the commitment of all parties to moving forward in the negotiation process in good faith, with the aim of reaching a comprehensive and sustainable agreement.”

Of course, in terms of "implementation" of just the MoU itself, things are not quite there yet, as sporadic fighting and Israeli aerial attacks continue in Lebanon, which could serve to derail the Switzerland process at any moment.

After roughly 45 min, the bilateral meeting between FM @araghchi and his Swiss counterpart @ignaziocassis came to a close at Bürgenstock Hotel. Quadrilateral talks between Iran, the US, Pakistan, and Qatar are expected to commence shortly at another venue on the same premises. pic.twitter.com/hOmovguWFs

— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) June 21, 2026

Additionally, Iran has declared it has 'closed' the Strait of Hormuz just this weekend, but which the US military has been denying is a reality. VP Vance in media appearances has also been downplaying it.

The Lebanon situation seems the bigger, more pressing threat to the peace process - at least from Tehran's point of view. Dozens of people in Lebanon have been killed while at least six Israeli soldiers have been slain, with 20 wounded over past days of Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks.

Trump Between a Rock & A Hard Place Where Escalation is Concerned

As a reminder, President Trump doesn't want to oversee an economic catastrophe driven by a worldwide energy crisis. It seems he's ready to anything to not let it happen under his watch:

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he was motivated to finalize the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran to prevent “economic catastrophe” if the war was not resolved soon.

“So rather than possibly going into a depression, rather than having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover, he was always the one I didn’t want to be,” Trump said of the 31st president whose policies are often blamed for starting the Great Depression.

“I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe. If you kept this going, that could have happened. But all I know is, every time we talked about the possibility of peace, the stock market shot up like a rocket ship,” Trump said during a press conference Wednesday on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Évian, France.

And so judging by this and other of recent Trump admissions, Iran clearly enters Switzerland in very strong negotiation position. Its current rhetoric regarding the Strait of Hormuz also reveals this.

JD Vance met with Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir in Switzerland.pic.twitter.com/5bteI1Vtyu

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 21, 2026

Tehran has accused the US of a "clear breach of its commitments" and announced Saturday that "the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to the passage of vessels," according to state broadcaster IRIB.

More Details on Format

For more on the details of the format, CNN has reported some further information in the following:

• When and where do the talks start? US and Iranian negotiators will begin their meeting at around 1 p.m local time (7 a.m. ET) at the Swiss mountain resort of Bürgenstock, an Iranian source told CNN.
• Who will be there? Both the United States and Iran have sent high-level officials to Switzerland. Vice President JD Vance is heading up the US side, while Iran’s lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, will lead Tehran’s delegation, Iranian media outlet Saberin News reported Saturday.
• What format will they take? Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, who is part of the Iranian team, earlier told state media “the Iran-US talks will be held in a quadrilateral format, with the presence of Pakistani and Qatari delegations.”
• What will be discussed? Lebanon is likely set to top the agenda after clashes between Israel and Hezbollah threatened the nascent agreement between the US and Iran. Vance says he hoped he would make advancements on negotiations surrounding the handling of Iran’s nuclear materials.

Long Road Ahead

To put things in perspective about the long road ahead, analyst and reporter James Bayes - who is on the ground for the talks in Switzerland, has offered the following: "This is a very different deal from the Iran nuclear deal that was done by [former US] President Barack Obama … things have changed completely. But I think it’s worth looking at that deal for one reason, which is the timeline – how long these things take."

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, center, arrives at the Buergenstock resort in Obbuergen, near Lucerne. Pool via AP

"Because when they did an interim deal then, in November 2013 until the final deal in 2015, it took 597 days," the correspondent added. "So, even though the circumstances have changed – it’s a very different deal and they’ve got the knowledge of that deal as well which is helpful – it’s a lot to do in just 60 days."

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 13:00