The post A Quick Note on the AI Bubble: Either the Market or Arithmetic is Wrong appeared first on CEPR.

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• What China Just Learned From the Iran War: Beijing watched America bomb Iran and drew its own conclusions about red lines, deterrence, and Taiwan. The lessons are not the ones Washington wants China to learn: A blockade of Taiwan would hurt the global economy more than Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. (The Atlantic)

• Job Growth on ICE: Krugman crunches the numbers on how immigration enforcement is freezing the labor market. You can’t deport workers and grow employment at the same time—pick one. (Paul Krugman) see also The Disillusioned College Grads Turning to the Labor Movement: At workplaces from Starbucks to Apple, highly educated downwardly mobile young people are organizing for better conditions. A new generation of educated workers is discovering unions, and the labor movement hasn’t been this energized in decades. The future of organized labor wears a hoodie and a master’s degree. (New Republic)

• The Most Powerful People in the World Are Obsessed With Media Again: Sam Altman is buying his favorite show, Larry Ellison is buying CNN to merge it with CBS News, Jamie Dimon is toying with launching a venture. It may mark a new era of vanity media owners. History suggests this never ends well for journalism. (Hollywood Reporter)

• After record highs, Colorado’s legal pot market hits a harsh comedown: The first state to legalize weed is now watching its market collapse. The lesson for every state legalization effort: the green rush ends and reality follows. (Washington Post)

• When Bill Ackman Vented Over $2 Million, Fellow Billionaires Rushed to Commiserate: Bill Ackman lost $2 million on something and other billionaires lined up to feel bad for him. The world’s tiniest violin is back in stock at Pershing Square. The investor revealed a family office feud. The world’s richest man came to his defense on social media. (Wall Street Journal)

• A Historian Spent 30 Years Interviewing Nazis. He Identified 12 Warning Signs of Fascism. All 12 Are Present in America Right Now: Three decades of interviews with actual Nazis distilled into a 12-point checklist. Spoiler: the checklist is fully checked. Read it and decide for yourself. (Uncensored Objection)

• The Bills That Destroyed Urban America: Joseph Lawler traces how postwar highway and housing bills gutted American cities more effectively than any wrecking ball. The planners dreamed of gleaming cities. Instead ,they brought three generations of hollowed-out downtowns and flight to the suburbs. (The New Atlantis)

• Trump’s Economy: You’re Either an Insider or a Chump: The Bulwark on the two-track economy Trump is building. The insiders trade ahead of policy announcements and the rest of us pay the bills. The grift is the point. The president is enriching friends, pardoning criminals, and impoverishing everyone else. (The Bulwark)

• Opposing ICE Might Save the Country. It Could Also Ruin Your Life: The personal cost of standing up to immigration enforcement is enormous—lost jobs, legal fees, and social ostracism. Wired profiles the people willing to pay it anyway. (Wired) see also Unmasking the Paramilitary Agents Behind Trump’s Violent Immigration Crackdown An investigation into BORTAC and BORSTAR agents and their use of force during the administration’s immigration enforcement surge. A WIRED analysis of DHS records identified dozens of specialized federal agents who used force against US civilians during the largest known deployment of its kind in US history. (Wired) see also What spending probes at DHS reveal about Kristi Noem’s time in office: Kara Voorhies, a little-known contractor, worked closely with top aide Corey Lewandowski and had wide influence over contracts under Noem’s leadership. (Washington Post)

• Cigarettes Get a Sequel: Hollywood’s ‘Cool’ Bad Habit Is Back: Smoking is making a comeback on screen after decades of public health campaigns drove it underground. Hollywood’s coolness machine never stays reformed for long. (The Ankler)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group (PMG) and member of the Global Executive Committee. He helps oversee $5 trillion in client assets across systematic & discretionary strategies as well as directly overseeing PMG’s hedge funds platform. He also heads the  BlackRock Investment Institute.

 

Change in Straight of Hormuz Traffic

Source: @JoshEakle

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Car-Shopping Websites Report Uptick In EV Interest Following Gasoline Price Shock

March brought the biggest fuel price shock Americans have experienced on record, or at least according to AAA data going back to the early 2000s.

A fuel price shock changes consumer behavior, especially for low-income households, by forcing folks to drive less, combine trips, cancel discretionary travel, or shift to carpooling and public transit.

For those who have the financial flexibility to do so, a fuel price shock may push some consumers toward smaller cars, hybrids, and EVs and away from large SUVs and trucks, because fuel economy suddenly matters much more.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a $4-per-gallon national average for gasoline, a politically sensitive level, is the threshold at which some consumers are beginning to think about EVs again.

Online car-shopping platforms such as Cars.com and Edmunds have reported a modest uptick in EV interest among users on their platforms in recent weeks. 

Edmunds pointed out that interest in EVs on its website has returned to where it was before federal tax incentives expired late last year.

"In the short term, a lot of Americans, and this has nothing to do with regulations, are coming back to EVs because of the cost of ownership," Hyundai Motor Chief Executive José Muñoz told the WSJ. "Basically, the fuel costs are making them change their decision."

Muñoz said that EVs are finding a place in the driveways of households in states like California because it makes economic sense to commute to work during the week in EVs rather than gasoline-powered cars. 

He said the thinking in some households is: "I have one car from Monday to Friday, another car for the weekend."

We must point out that far-left states like California suffer from state-killing climate policies and terrible energy policies that are crushing households on the pocketbook level. 

Data from Cox Automotive shows that EV sales jumped 12% in the first quarter as a flood of off-lease EVs swamped the market, pushing prices lower and making them more affordable.

Edmunds data show that EVs accounted for roughly 6.2% of new-car sales in March, up from 6% in February, but this is noticeably down from September, when EVs accounted for 11.5% of sales. Higher EV sales last year were mostly driven by consumers seeing that federal tax credits were expiring at the end of the year, think of it as demand pulled forward.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, said the surge in gasoline and diesel prices at the pump during the six-week U.S.-Iran conflict led to "an uptick in consideration" of EVs. She said driving habits are hard to change, considering Americans enjoy the luxury of large SUVs and trucks.

Meanwhile, Chinese EV exports soared 140% in March, driven by surging demand outside the US amid Gulf-related energy shocks. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 19:15

Climate Organization Behind Anti-ICE Protests Is Leading May 1 School Walkout Plan, Parent Group Reports

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

One of the main organizations behind the recent protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations is encouraging children to walk out of class en masse next month to help promote its agenda, which includes achieving what it said are “Eco-socialism, [a] multi-racial democracy, and Green New Deal legislation,” according to a April 8 report by representatives of parent group Defending Education.

Organized by the Sunrise Movement, hundreds of young climate activists march to the White House to demand that U.S. President Joe Biden work to make the Green New Deal into law in Washington, DC, on June 28, 2021. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The Sunrise Movement, during its March 17 online membership meeting, called on schools to “train up” employees and students to disrupt the federal government ahead of planned May 1 “May Day” protests as part of an ongoing “political revolution” to “structurally change the foundations of this country,” according to slides Defending Education, a nonprofit opposing indoctrination in classrooms, obtained from a tipster who attended the meeting.

The Sunrise Movement, according to the slides and its website, describes itself as an anti-President Donald Trump “climate revolution” group that advocates socialism, supports a rainbow coalition of the multi-racial working class, and calls for an end to the “billionaire” two-party political system.

In addition to mass school walkouts, the organization is also calling for more disruptions to Hilton hotels, which have housed ICE officers, according to the slides. Past actions included calling for boycotts of the hotel chain and engaging in “wide awake” events where protestors gathered outside of Hilton-branded hotels and made as much noise as possible to prevent ICE officers—and everyone else staying there—from sleeping.

Another slide illustrates a domino effect that starts with the ideological conversion of students and young people and spreads to teachers, customer service workers, city service workers, factory service workers, shipping and transportation workers, and ultimately “military and police defections.”

“They have zero reservations about using children to advance their political ideology,” Rhyen Staley, Defending Education research director, told The Epoch Times. “These kids are being used for their propaganda.”

The Sunrise Movement was frequently listed in an earlier report produced by Staley that identified 357 protests and walkouts at middle schools and high schools so far this year. He said the organization, backed by wealthy donors, recruits students via social media and provides signs used at the protests.

The slide presentation is not currently on the Sunrise Movement’s website, but the information noted in it is contained in different pages throughout the site, including a “student rise-up” guide.

“May Day 2026 is our chance to practice mass non-cooperation, prove our power so we can pick bigger fights, and set the movement’s agenda with clear demands,” the guide says.

“On May Day 2026, students at hundreds of schools are walking out, rising up, and disrupting business as usual.”

Staley anticipates participation from K-12 students across the country, especially in Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and California. Most of them, he said, don’t necessarily agree with or understand the ideology they’ll be walking out for; it’s just a chance to get out of class.

He previously told The Epoch Times that teacher unions are connected to public school protests nationwide.

Becky Pringle, president of the National Education Association (NEA) teachers’ union, appeared in a Sunrise Movement video two days before the Jan. 30 “National Day of Action” coordinated by the coalition NationalShutdown.org.

“On behalf of the education professionals who belong to the NEA ... thank you, Sunrise, for standing on the front lines in Minneapolis and in so many cities across our nation, demanding justice in all forms,” Pringle said in the video.

Staley said these events exacerbate what he said is an ongoing discipline crisis in public schools. Districts might not have updated policies to address walkouts or delegate responsibility to teachers, who might only deduct class participation points with no further discipline for skipping class without an excused absence. School officials often don’t understand how freedom of speech protections apply in school settings and fear they’ll be sued for First Amendment violations if they don’t allow students to participate in walkouts.

“They don’t want nastygrams [from attorneys] and the bad attention,” he said. “They’d rather deal with the fallout from just a few parents afterward.”

Safety is another concern, given the heightened fear of terrorism. A massive May 1 mobilization of children is a dangerous idea right now, Staley said.

Defending Education urges parents to talk with their children about the consequences of skipping classes to promote politics they don’t necessarily support. Teachers can also use this current event as a teaching moment and challenge students to state their views in writing as if they were submitting a letter to Congress or their local newspaper.

“[Students’] responsibility is to be as educated as possible,” he said, “so [they belong] in a classroom.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the Sunrise Movement for comment but did not hear back by publication time.

Janice Hisle, Savannah Hulsey Pointer, and Darlene McCormick Sanchez contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 18:40

It's A MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ World And We're Just Living In It

Authored by Rick Moran via PJMedia.com,

What is MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+? It might be a new, super-strong password. Maybe it's a Gen-Whatever code-like thing that's sweeping the internet, like "6-7" or something.

If only it could be that mundane.

In fact, MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ is an all-inclusive, all-encompassing, balls-to-the-wall, slam bang, wham-bam-thank-you-ma'am acronym for the totality of the gender bending, sexually "unique" population of Canada. 

For the record, as Jim Treacher helpfully points out, it stands for "Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls, Two-Spirit, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, Questioning, Intersex, Asexual, and "additional identities ("+").

The excitement was started by a Canadian New Democratic Party member of parliament, Leah Gazan, who complained that not enough money was being spent to "deal with the ongoing genocide of MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+."

NDP MP Leah Gazan condemns Budget 2026 for cutting $7B from Indigenous Services Canada and Crown Indigenous relations.

"They provided $0 to deal with the ongoing genocide of MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+," she said.

"Rates of violence are increasing, and the PM is turning a blind eye." pic.twitter.com/G0QfVjNpNB

— Juno News (@junonewscom) April 8, 2026

Budgeting for each and every identity, preference, and fantasy spirit in the MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ community would blow up the Canadian budget. 

I fondly recall when sexual preference identities were simple: LGB and maybe T, XYZ, believe you me. It was easy. It was a simpler time then. We didn't have to worry about offending someone by using the wrong pronoun. We didn't have to worry about making some poor, disturbed "T" or "Q" explode in tears from being misgendered.  

It would be so much easier (and we'd be less likely to offend) if the MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ "community" would just walk around with name tags identifying which gender they are, what their sexual identity is, and most importantly, what pronouns they prefer to be referred to.

Yes, that's a joke. No Nazi "Star of David" references, please.

Not that I'd use them. But since misgendering is going to be an Olympic sport in 2030, it would be helpful to know who we should insult. 

Treacher tried and failed to keep a straight face in reporting on this phenomenon.

Okay, for real, this is a serious topic. You don’t want to see women kidnapped and murdered.

Not most women, anyway. I mean, there are names that come to mind…

But no. Nobody should go through that.

Mostly.

And of course, since that’s such a long acronym and that woman just rattled it off like it’s a normal thing to say, people are having some fun with it today. “Got my new password!” That sort of thing.

There’s a British comedian named Damian Slash who has perfected a sort of straight-faced satire of… liberal excesses, let’s put it that way. Here he is explaining why MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ is no joke.

MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ is not a joke pic.twitter.com/VMLFVvMPCn

— Damien Slash (@damienslash) April 9, 2026

The internet being the internet, there was a slanderous fake news take on this story that claimed Canada was updating its LGBTQ+ acronym to MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+.

Pink News, whose goal is to "empower generations to embrace and shape the future - making the world a gayer place," says that simply isn't true.

"She [Gazan] used MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ as a catch-all term," says Pink News. 

"Catch-all?" Really? That's a pretty wide net to use as a "catch-all." 

"Various social media sites began reporting that Canada has now officially updated the LGBTQ+ acronym to MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+, which isn’t the case," we're informed by Pink News.

 It's impossible to parody leftists who are blissfully unaware of their own stupidity.

Okay, so why is this so annoying? Why does this bug me so much? Why is liberalism so irritating?

Because that’s what’s going on here. It’s not about making fun of people who are in trouble. It’s not about making fun of these women.

It’s about not just being able to say that. That these women are in trouble. They need help. Just say that they’re missing women. They’re possibly murdered. Just say that.

But that’s not inclusive.

Precisely. If this really were about saving lives, they wouldn't use code that's impossible to say with a straight face or highfalutin "all-inclusive" descriptions of what these people's preferences are when it comes to who they love or prefer to sleep with.

It's pretentious bull. And they do their cause no good by employing acronyms solely to be "inclusive" while failing to see it as the problem.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 17:30

Texas To Face $700 Million In Federal Penalties For SNAP Errors Through 2027

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times,

Texas is expected to pay $708 million more by 2027 to the federal government in penalties for erroneous distributions from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

The state officials released the cost in a presentation to the Senate Committee on Health and Human Services on April 8.

The state payment error rate was estimated to be nearly 9 percent in fiscal year 2025, totaling $627 million in erroneous payments.

Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Texas will need to share an additional food stamps program cost of $708 million, 10 percent of the state’s total program benefits, based on its error rate, beginning October 2027.

Currently, the federal government fully funds the food stamps program, while states only need to pay half of the administrative expenses.

In fiscal year 2024, Texas received nearly $7 billion in federal funding and paid roughly $470 million for administrative costs.

Starting in October 2026, the states will need to share the administration costs at a rate of 75 percent. By 2027, Texas is expected to pay about $826 million more after adding in administrative fees of $117 million.

To avoid that result, Texas needs to bring its error rate down to 6 percent before the fiscal year ends this September.

In Texas, more than 3.2 million residents benefit from the food stamps program as of December 2025, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

A family of four can receive a maximum of $994 per month on a Lone Star Card, which can be used like a debit card at any store that accepts SNAP.

Starting on April 1, SNAP recipients cannot buy candy or sweetened drinks in Texas with their Lone Star Cards.

Improper Payments

The federal government allocated nearly $100 billion to the food stamps program in fiscal year 2024; however, roughly $11 billion of that total was attributed to improper disbursement.

The food stamp error rate doesn’t come from fraud by people receiving the benefits, but from states making mistakes in determining who gets benefits and how much they receive.

Mistakes arise when beneficiaries forget to report changes in income or circumstances, or when government offices commit errors during case processing, according to the Texas Health and Human Services.

Food stamp errors accounted for 7 percent of the approximately $162 billion in improper payments recorded across 68 federal programs in fiscal year 2024, according to a report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Since fiscal year 2003, cumulative federal improper payments have amounted to an estimated $2.8 trillion. The actual amount of improper payments may be significantly higher, according to the report.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 16:20

The post From War on Iran to the War on Crypto: The Secret Weapon Is a Digital Currency appeared first on CEPR.

Three Supertankers Carrying Iraqi And Saudi Crude Sail Through The Strait Of Hormuz

The wait is over: after the Persian Gulf side of the Hormuz Strait had turned into a bit of a parking lot late last week as tankers piled up hoping to use the ceasefire and make the crossing, two Chinese supertankers loaded with crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz hours after a Greek vessel moved through the waterway, marking a significant uptick in oil shipping traffic. It represents the biggest day of oil exits through Hormuz since the war caused traffic through the waterway to all but halt six weeks ago. More importantly, none of the ships are carrying Iranian oil or have obvious, direct links to the country.

The two Chinese supertankers are the Cospearl Lake and the He Rong Hai.  The Greek one is the Serifos. The Serifos and the He Rong Hai loaded their cargoes in Saudi Arabia, while the Cospearl Lake did so in Iraq, the tracking data show. 

All three tankers sailed eastward via south of Iran’s Larak Island, a new route outlined by Iran’s navy last week. The duo were in the Gulf of Oman by Saturday morning, ship-tracking data shows.

The two Chinese supertankers are the first from the Asian nation observed taking barrels out of Persian Gulf, a benefit for Beijing but also underscoring that the country has also been squeezed by the conflict. There’s also a third Chinese tanker, the Yuan Hua Hu, which hasn’t been signaling on Saturday, that had been waiting close by the first two before they moved to depart the Persian Gulf. 

The ships’ journeys were widely watched by marine and oil industry analysts as a sign of potential uptick for the traffic through the strait. Only two bulk carriers were allowed to pass on Friday, the fewest so far in April, according S&P Global Market Intelligence.

While the exits are significant, in oil flow terms, they are still way below peace-time levels: The three crossing tankers between them have a transport capacity of about 6 million barrels of crude. In addition, Iran, the only country really sending barrels through, exported at a rate of about 1.7 million barrels a day last month. That would imply roughly half the normal rate of shipments through the waterway — and only on a single day. 

Iran has said that vessels are allowed to sail through the waterway, but that they must get permission to do so. All three tankers followed a northerly route through the strait that has been demanded by Tehran. That path passes through Iranian waters and along the coasts of Qeshm and Larak Islands and is well away from the traditional Hormuz shipping lanes that hug the southern coast of the waterway.

The Greek tanker was signaling for Malacca in Malaysia, whose media reported on Friday a permission for the country’s freighters to depart. Malacca is also a waypoint for ships going elsewhere in Asia. 

Almost all traffic through the waterway, which normally handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar portion of liquefied natural gas, ground to a halt within a day of the war starting on Feb. 28.

The reopening of Hormuz is critical to global oil trade because its closure has resulted in the loss of millions of barrels of supply to mostly Asian markets. A resumption would alleviate pressure on increasingly tight physical markets everywhere, and send prices plunging. The US and Iran are set to hold peace talks in Islamabad in the coming days.

* * *

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 15:45

Why Is China's Embassy In D.C. Hardening Security Perimeter With Barbed Wire

Washington, D.C.-focused local outlet Popville, short for Prince of Petworth, posted several images showing barbed wire being installed around the security perimeter of the Chinese Embassy.

The photos appear to show at least four workers installing the barbed wire atop an already hardened perimeter wall of block and iron fencing. 

Embassies in Washington face security risks, but the sudden decision to further harden the Chinese compound raises obvious questions: whether Beijing is responding to a specific threat, anticipating protests or unrest nearby, or preparing for the arrival of a senior official or foreign delegation.

We should also note that activist networks aligned with pro-China and Marxist groups have called for May 1 general strike actions aimed at disrupting the U.S. economy. It remains unclear whether the embassy's sudden security hardening is connected to those planned demonstrations or to some other threat stream.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 13:25

Orban Warns "We Could Now Lose Everything": Sunday's Hungarian Elections Have Profound Implications For Europe

As Hungarians head to the polls on Sunday, April 12, 2026, the country stands at a historic inflection point. For the first time since Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party swept back into power in 2010, a credible challenger - Péter Magyar and his Tisza party - has a genuine shot at ending 16 years of what Orbán proudly calls his "illiberal laboratory." In a final campaign rally, Orbán warned supporters they are choosing "not just a government, but the fate of the country" and could "now lose everything we have built together."

Bluntly put the election is a referendum on the durability of nationalist populism in Europe, the future of EU integration, energy security amid the Ukraine war, transatlantic conservative alliances under Trump 2.0, and even the fate of billions in Chinese investment that have reshaped Hungarian industry.

Right now, it looks like Magyar has it in the bag, so read on for the implications:

//--> //--> //--> Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Yes 72% · No 28%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

As Goldman notes, independent polls, seat projections, and prediction markets all point to a likely Tisza victory - potentially with the two-thirds supermajority needed to rewrite the constitution. Markets have been pricing it in for over a year, yet the stakes could hardly be higher, and the outcome remains fluid until the ballots are counted. A Fidesz upset or narrow hold would reverberate from Brussels to Beijing, from Kyiv to Washington. This is the "Battle for Hungary" - and its ripples could redefine the continent’s political fault lines, as noted by Andrew Korybko. 

The Two-Man Race: Orbán’s Empire vs. Magyar’s Surge

Orbán, 62, has dominated Hungarian politics since 2010, crafting a model of "illiberal democracy" that mixes nationalist rhetoric, state-orchestrated economic control, and defiance of EU norms.

He positioned Hungary as a bulwark against mass migration, gender ideology, and Brussels overreach - exporting the playbook to allies like Donald Trump. Under his watch, Fidesz built an electoral machine that delivered supermajorities in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, despite never exceeding roughly 54% of the vote, thanks to gerrymandering, diaspora voting, and first-past-the-post districts.

Enter Péter Magyar, 43, a former Fidesz insider turned insurgent.

A lawyer and ex-husband of a former justice minister, Magyar burst onto the scene in 2024 after a dramatic break with the party, railing against corruption, cronyism, and economic mismanagement. His Tisza party has consolidated the fragmented opposition into a genuine two-party contest. Magyar campaigns on restoring rule of law, unlocking frozen EU funds, and delivering economic relief without sacrificing sovereignty. He is explicitly targeting the two-thirds supermajority (133 of 199 seats) to repeal Fidesz’s "Cardinal Acts" and constitutional changes.

The numbers tell the story. Long-term polling charts show Fidesz’s support eroding from peaks near 48% in 2024 to the low 30s–low 40s today, while Tisza has rocketed from the mid-20s to 50–58% among decided voters.

Taking a 'Naive' Average of All Polls Suggests Tisza Will Receive Most Votes, But Fall Short of 50%

Independent pollsters like Medián consistently show Tisza at 55–58% and Fidesz at 35–38%, with "Other" parties collapsing into single digits. 

On Polymarket, Péter Magyar is trading at 72% to become the next Prime Minister (versus 28% for Viktor Orbán), with over $62 million in trading volume. The "Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner" market gives Tisza a 75% probability of winning the most seats and forming the next government (Fidesz at 26%), with roughly $60 million traded.

//--> //--> //--> Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Yes 75% · No 26%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Even accounting for the system’s built-in advantages for incumbents - 106 single-member FPTP districts, strong rural and Romanian-diaspora support for Fidesz - the market consensus strongly favors a decisive shift in power.

The Domestic Reckoning: Economy, Corruption, and Voter Fatigue

Hungary’s voters are not marching to the polls in a vacuum. Beneath the ideological battle lies raw economic pain. As Goldman notes further, cumulative price rises of 40% since 2021 have hammered households despite inflation cooling to +1.4%. Growth has stagnated. Corruption perceptions rank Hungary as the EU’s most graft-prone member, per Transparency International. Many Hungarians see Orbán’s system - subsidies, tax breaks, and special deals - as having enriched insiders while ordinary people footed the bill for the cost-of-living crisis.

Orbán has countered by highlighting 16 years of achievements - job creation, pension increases, and border barriers to halt illegal immigration - and warned that losing power would mean Hungarians "lose everything we have built together."

A Tisza victory would likely deliver immediate relief: the unlocking of roughly €20 billion in frozen EU funds, contingent on judicial and anti-corruption reforms. Magyar has pledged a credible path to euro adoption by 2030, which would stabilize the forint and lower borrowing costs long-term. A supermajority would let Tisza dismantle the "Cardinal Acts" that entrenched Fidesz power over media, elections, pensions, and taxation.

As Korybko notes, the emotional undercurrent runs deeper. Orbán’s defenders credit him with shielding Hungary from the worst of the Ukraine war fallout - keeping Russian energy flowing, avoiding direct involvement, and preserving sovereignty. Many Chinese business owners in Hungary quietly echo that view: they grumble about bribes and cronyism but prefer the "devil they know" because "at least things get done," according to SCMP. 

How Hungarian Elections Work

Voters cast two ballots: one for a local candidate (106 seats via first-past-the-post) and one for a national party list (93 seats via proportional representation). A simple majority elects the prime minister and passes ordinary laws; two-thirds is required for constitutional amendments and Cardinal Acts. 

Ballots open at 06:00 CEST and close at 19:00 CEST on Sunday. Counting begins immediately; a clear winner typically emerges election night, with official certification roughly one week later. Recounts are possible if margins are razor-thin. Turnout will be decisive: high participation historically favors challengers riding waves of discontent.

Geopolitical Earthquake: From Brussels to Beijing

Europe and the EU

Orbán has been the bloc’s most stubborn spoiler - vetoing Ukraine aid packages, blocking rule-of-law sanctions, and slowing federalization. A Tisza win would remove that veto leverage overnight. Brussels-friendly governance could accelerate EU integration, restore Hungary’s access to cohesion funds, and align Budapest with mainstream European policy.

Ukraine

Kyiv has clashed repeatedly with Orbán over energy imports from Russia and reluctance to arm Ukraine. Ukrainian pressure tactics - including weaponizing the Druzhba pipeline - have failed to move him. A

Ukraine hates Hungary too, but only because Orban refuses to arm it, continues purchasing energy from Russia, and has occasionally obstructed EU funding for this former Soviet Republic. In response, Ukraine has weaponized the Druzhba oil pipeline from Russia upon which Hungary relies to a large degree to pressure him into reversing his policies, but to no avail. Ukraine also colludes with the Hungarian opposition, which is now Ukraine’s and the EU’s joint proxy, in their Russiagate conspiracy theories. -Korybko

Magyar government would likely soften Hungary’s stance, easing EU-Ukraine funding bottlenecks and reducing pipeline friction.

United States and Trump 2.0

The international right has rallied behind Orbán. Former President Donald Trump endorsed him on social media, calling him "a truly strong and determined leader" with "a proven record of outstanding results" and a "true friend, a fighter, and a winner."  U.S. Vice President JD Vance visited Budapest and sharply criticized Brussels for "unprecedented interference" in the election process. A Fidesz hold would bolster that transatlantic populist axis; a Tisza victory would be a setback, signaling that even the strongest illiberal outpost can fall to domestic economic grievances.

European Populist Allies

Orbán has also received strong backing from key figures on the European right. France’s Marine Le Pen praised his stance on the Ukraine war as "very brave," Italy’s Matteo Salvini framed the vote as a contest over Europe’s future and national sovereignty versus centralized EU control, and Germany’s AfD co-leader Alice Weidel voiced her support.

Russia

Moscow’s stake is modest but real: Orbán’s pragmatic energy deals and occasional obstruction of anti-Russia measures have been valuable. Putin sees Hungary as a potential future bridge for EU-Russia détente once the Ukraine war ends. Russia has avoided overt meddling, but a Tisza shift would narrow that window.

Out of the four foreign parties with stakes in the “Battle for Hungary”, Russia’s are the least. It supports Orban’s pragmatic approach to the Ukrainian Conflict and views Hungary as a valuable partner in Europe. More than that, however, Putin believes that Orban can help repair Russian-EU relations sometime after their proxy war in Ukraine ends. While certainly game-changing if it occurs, this scenario is admittedly unlikely, ergo why Russia isn’t meddling in his support despite conspiracy theories to the contrary. -Korybko

China

Billions in Chinese FDI - most visibly CATL’s massive battery plant in Debrecen - have become politically radioactive. Banners reading "No battery, no deal," "Debrecen belongs to Hungarians," and "Chinese, go home" dot the city. Chinese firms face local backlash over imported labor, environmental risks, and meager local economic spillovers. Tisza has been measured - calling for "pragmatic, mutually beneficial" ties while demanding stricter EU-compliant rules on labor, environment, and taxes. Projects already under construction are unlikely to be seized, but a new government would pivot from "seduction" (subsidies and visas) to enforcement. 

Market Verdict: The Forint Has Already Spoken

Investors have been positioned for a Tisza outcome since early 2025. The forint has strengthened in anticipation. Goldman's EM desk outlines clear scenarios:

• Tisza win (base case): EUR/HUF –2%, swaps –20 to –30 bps, credit spreads –15 to –25 tighter.
• Tisza + supermajority: EUR/HUF –4%, swaps –30 to –40 bps, spreads –25 to –40 tighter (+ €20bn EU funds unlock). 
• Fidesz hold / upset: EUR/HUF +4%, swaps +40 to +50 bps, spreads +25 to +40 wider.

FX volatility desks price roughly 3% gap risk around the event, with positioning long HUF but some profit-taking near 375. 

Aftermath Scenarios: Victory, Narrow Hold, or Chaos

A decisive Tisza victory would mark the end of the Orbán era and a constitutional reset. A narrow Fidesz government or blocking minority could trigger exactly the Color Revolution fears some analysts warn of - EU- and Ukraine-backed protests framed around "Russian meddling," exactly the kind of destabilization Orbán has accused opponents of preparing. Hungarians themselves hold the greatest stake. They will live with the consequences - economic relief or continued stagnation, EU integration or defiant sovereignty, pragmatic Chinese investment or stricter oversight. 

Why Europe - and the World - Should Watch Closely

This is more than a Hungarian election. It is a stress test for the durability of the populist wave that Orbán helped pioneer. A Tisza supermajority would deliver the clearest repudiation yet of illiberal governance in Europe, emboldening Brussels and weakening nationalist holdouts elsewhere. It would signal that economic pain and corruption fatigue can trump sovereignty rhetoric even in the EU’s most defiant member.

Conversely, an Orbán hold - against the polling tide - would validate the model’s resilience and give fresh oxygen to conservative-nationalist forces from Warsaw to Washington.

Sunday’s result will not just decide Hungary’s next prime minister. It could redraw the map of European populism, recalibrate great-power alignments, and determine whether the "illiberal laboratory" survives or becomes a historical footnote. Polls close at 19:00 CEST. By nightfall, we may know whether the Battle for Hungary ends in revolution - or resilience. The continent is watching.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 12:15

Watch: Axe-Wielding Man Attacks U.S. C-130 Cargo Plane At Irish Airport

Footage posted on X appears to show a deranged man hammering away on top of a U.S. Air Force C-130H Hercules parked at Shannon Airport on Ireland's west coast on Friday.

"A man breached security at Shannon Airport in Ireland, climbed onto a parked C-130 Hercules, and damaged it with a tool," the Clash Report wrote on X.

WATCH: A man breached security at Shannon Airport in Ireland, climbed onto a parked C-130 Hercules, and damaged it with a tool.

He was arrested. pic.twitter.com/uls2tfgGND

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 11, 2026

Local media outlet Clare FM described the incident as a "security breach," with airport operations briefly suspended while police arrested "the person, understood to be a male," who was "seen in the vicinity of a United States Air Force C-130 Hercules transport aircraft that had been parked on a remote taxiway at the airport."

US Air Force C-130H Hercules 91-1653 landed at Shannon yesterday from Rosecrans Air National Guard air base St Josephs Kansas, via St. John's Canada. It spent the night at Shannon, and hasn't yet gone in to its next military base.#USMilitaryOutOfShannon pic.twitter.com/BkllQx68HX

— Shannonwatch (@shannonwatch) April 11, 2026

"A man breached security at Shannon Airport in Ireland. It's understood that the person climbed onto the wing of the aircraft and caused damage to the fuselage with an implement, possibly an axe, while it was parked," the outlet said.

In recent months, at least one far-left group has attacked a critical supply chain node supporting the F-35 stealth fighter jet program in the UK. There are no indications yet from authorities as to whether the C-130 attacker was part of a left-wing threat network

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 11:05

Swalwell Denies Rape Allegations - Refuses to Drop Out Of Governor's Race Despite Democrat Exodus

The latest:

• Eric Swalwell’s California governor campaign collapsed after sexual assault allegations.

• Former staffer alleged harassment plus two assaults while she was intoxicated.

• Four women total have accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct.

• Swalwell denies all claims as false and politically motivated.

• Major Democratic allies withdrew support and called for him to exit the race.

- Update (as of Saturday morning): Since the San Francisco Chronicle story and initial fallout (including Hakeem Jeffries’ call for Swalwell to step down), Swalwell released a video across social media strongly denying the allegations as “flat false” and confirming he is not dropping out of the governor’s race. In the video Swalwell specifically referred to the accusations as coming from “anonymous” people, even though at least one woman (the primary accuser) has come forward publicly and given an on-camera interview to CNN.

Hear it directly from me. These allegations are flat false. And I will fight them. pic.twitter.com/bQSlCquD1U

— Rep. Eric Swalwell (@RepSwalwell) April 11, 2026

CNN’s follow-up confirmed four women total have now alleged misconduct - including the named Chronicle/CNN accuser (former staffer) plus three others citing unwanted touching, intoxicated encounters, and unsolicited explicit messages or nude photos. Additional prominent Democrats (Sen. Adam Schiff, campaign co-chairs Reps. Jimmy Gomez and Adam Gray) withdrew endorsements and joined calls for Swalwell to exit the race and resign from Congress. More unions and rival candidates echoed those demands.

The campaign saw continued staff departures, quietly removed its endorsements page (now a 404 error), and faces legal threats against accusers. Prediction markets price his win odds at roughly 4-5% and show ~86%+ odds he drops out before the June primary. Republicans (including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna) have filed motions to expel him from the House. No formal investigations or lawsuits have been publicly filed yet, but the political damage appears severe and possibly irreversible.

Eric Swalwell's chances of becoming California's next corrupt governor cratered on Friday after detailed sexual assault allegations from a former district-office staffer were published in the San Francisco Chronicle. 

Polymarket odds of becoming California's next governor are at 4% as of this writing...

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes 5% · No 96%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

* * *

The stunning drop - visible in real time on platforms such as Polymarket, where “Yes” contracts on Swalwell's victory traded as high as $1,100 earlier in the day before cratering to pennies - reflects a campaign that appears to be in free fall just weeks before ballots drop in the June primary. Traders piled into the “No” side at 96 cents, effectively pricing in the congressman’s political demise in the nation’s largest state.

The Allegations

A woman who worked in Swalwell's Castro Valley district office for nearly two years, beginning around 2019 when she was 21, alleged that Swalwell sexually harassed her as soon as she started, that they had some consensual encounters while she was on staff, and that he twice sexually assaulted her when she was too intoxicated to consent - once in a 2019 hotel room and again in 2024 after she had left his office. The woman, who is not named in the story, told the Chronicle she felt pressured by his position of power and has lived in fear of coming forward.

"She said Swalwell, who is married and 17 years her senior, tried to kiss her in her car when she drove him home from a donor meeting one night. Driving him to another event weeks later, she said Swalwell pulled out his penis in the car and asked her to perform oral sex on him. She said she did so in a parking lot.

In September 2019, the woman said, Swalwell invited her out for drinks and she became so severely intoxicated that she does not remember the rest of the night. She said she woke up naked in Swalwell’s hotel bed and could feel the effect of vaginal intercourse. She said Swalwell distanced himself from her afterward and the relationship faded." -The Chronicle

Swalwell immediately rejected the claims as “false” ...hang on... 

Eric Swalwell told us to BELIEVE SURVIVORS.

Do as he says! pic.twitter.com/ul1cHHcPDf

— Breanna Morello (@BreannaMorello) April 10, 2026

...and politically motivated, calling them a last-ditch effort to kneecap the Democratic primary leader. “For nearly 20 years, I have served the public — as a prosecutor and a congressman - and have always protected women,” he said in a statement. “I will defend myself with the facts and where necessary bring legal action.” His attorney sent a cease-and-desist letter to the accuser’s counsel threatening defamation litigation.

The allegations landed as the campaign was already reeling from weeks of unverified social-media rumors about inappropriate conduct with female staffers. By Friday, the fallout was swift and brutal.

At least four senior aides had resigned in anticipation of the story, according to multiple Democratic sources familiar with the situation. Unions that had endorsed Swalwell, including the powerful UFCW Western States Council, withdrew their support and called on him to suspend his campaign. “The allegations … are extremely detailed, troubling, and gut-wrenching,” the union said in a statement.

Even longtime ally Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) publicly withdrew his endorsement. House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who had been neutral in the race, issued a carefully worded statement Friday night: “This extremely sensitive matter must be appropriately investigated with full transparency and accountability. As I discussed with Congressman Swalwell, it is clear that is best done outside of a gubernatorial campaign.”

* * * Update: House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries has called for Swalwell to step down, as well as for an investigation.

Statement on the Serious Accusations against Rep. Eric Swalwell. pic.twitter.com/9lkYqiCIGr

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) April 11, 2026

Swalwell’s campaign manager, Yardena Wolf - his longtime chief of staff who moved over to run the gubernatorial operation - had personally briefed a small group of online influencers earlier in the week on the initial rumors, sticking to the campaign’s line that the claims were “false, outrageous” and that no NDAs or ethics complaints existed. Wolf has not issued a new public statement since the Chronicle story dropped, and a campaign spokesperson was unreachable Friday night amid the staff exodus.

JUST IN: The 'Endorsements' section on Eric Swalwell's campaign site has been removed and returns a 404 error. pic.twitter.com/sMndosxwWl

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) April 10, 2026

The political math in California has shifted overnight. Just weeks ago, Emerson College polling showed Swalwell leading a fragmented Democratic field with 17 percent support and 25 percent undecided. Prediction markets briefly pegged his chances above 60 percent. He had positioned himself as the Democrat best equipped to counter the Trump administration from Sacramento, leveraging his national profile and prosecutorial background.

Now the race is wide open. Rivals who once struggled for attention are suddenly the story, while progressive voices that once gave Swalwell the benefit of the doubt are demanding full investigations - or his immediate exit from the race and even Congress.

The timing has fueled intense partisan finger-pointing. Swalwell allies describe the allegations as a coordinated hit job engineered by flailing opponents and amplified by conservative voices. Supporters of the accuser counter that the details are credible, long-suppressed and too serious to ignore for a candidate seeking the state’s highest office.

Whatever the ultimate legal or electoral verdict, the market verdict is already in. The blue line on the betting charts has turned into a cliff - and Eric Swalwell’s path to the governor’s mansion has all but vanished.

Needless to say, not even Chinese spies will be interested in Eric after this.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 10:56

IMF Warns Iran War Will Slow Global Growth, Raise Inflation, And Worsen Food Insecurity

Submitted by OilPrice.com

Severe fuel shortages, hunger, and spiralling inflation will be some of the consequences of the Iran war as the head of the International Monetary Fund said that it would leave “scarring effects” on the global economy.  

In a speech by Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, global policymakers were warned that trade disruption across the Middle East over the last month would lead to lower growth and higher inflation.

IMF Başkanı Kristalina Georgieva, İran savaşının küresel ekonomik büyümeyi yavaşlatacağı konusunda uyarıda bulundu. pic.twitter.com/KJjRWlQvYl

— Voice Of Middle East (@VOME_TR) April 10, 2026

The impact of the war was also predicted to be uneven between different countries depending on levels of energy imports and their proximity to the war, according to the world’s foremost economic organisation.

Georgieva’s address on Thursday morning underlined the consequences of what one month of the US and Israel’s war with Iran, and the subsequent hold-up in trading flows across the Strait of Hormuz, would mean for the world economy. 

She warned that the most severe fuel disruptions will come for islands in the Pacific Ocean, with the ripple effects then spreading around the world. 

She also said that 45 million more people would suffer from food insecurity, while there were “warning lights flashing red” for fuel shortages in several countries. 

Inflation expectations could also “break anchor and ignite a costly inflation process”, though Georgieva said long-run confidence in price growth among households and businesses presented “very good and very important” readings. 

IMF: Fuel shortages to lead to ‘ripple effects’

The IMF chief added that infrastructure damage, particularly at Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas complex that is critical for energy supplies in Asia, would lead to “no neat and clean return to the status quo”. 

The IMF will update its economic forecasts next week, which will feature specific changes on the outlook for the UK economy. 

Georgieva asserted that the world economy would suffer from lower growth and warned decision-makers “not to make things worse”. 

“I appeal to all countries to reject go-it-alone actions—export controls, price controls, and so on—that can further upset global conditions,” she said. 

“Don’t pour gasoline on the fire.”

The IMF’s forecast revisions next week will be the second major update on the global economic outlook after the OECD, a Paris-based think tank, said the UK economy would be harder hit than any other G7 country by the war. 

It suggested the UK would suffer the second-lowest level of growth this year and the second-highest level of inflation after the US. 

There are renewed hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and allow trade and production to resume, but economists and policymakers have warned that the full reopening will take weeks, given the risk of further escalation and the wobbly terms of the current ceasefire agreement.

President Trump and Iranian leadership officials have floated the prospect of imposing a toll on ships passing through the critical trading route. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has urged the US administration to resist slapping a tax on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 

The UK economy is also predicted to suffer the worst impacts of the war later in the year after the energy price shock from higher oil and gas prices passes through into household bills from July.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 10:30



 

 

This week, I speak with Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group (PMG) and a member of BlackRock’s Global Executive Committee.

We discuss the durable economic shocks that could result from the war with Iran, including energy security. We also discuss his time in the Biden administration as Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics.

A list of his current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Philippe Bouchaud, co‑founder, chair & head of research/chief scientist at Capital Fund Management (CFM) The $20 billion dollar fiorm specializes in managed futures). He beghan his career in theoretical physics, was awarded the IBM young scientist prize (1990) + C.N.R.S. Silver Medal (1996), and has published over 300 scientific papers and several books in physics & finance.

 

 

 

 

Current Reading

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Mike Pyle, BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group appeared first on The Big Picture.

Mamdani's First 100 Days Aren't Getting High Marks From Voters

Zohran Mamdani rode a wave of progressive enthusiasm and sweeping promises to become the Mayor of New York City.

Now, as he closes in on his first hundred days in office, he’s learning that governing is a lot harder than campaigning, and a new poll suggests New Yorkers are starting to be skeptical about what they voted for.

Some of Mamdani’s campaign promises won’t be fulfilled because Gov. Kathy Hochul is refusing to subsidize them. Earlier this year, snow and trash removal problems became major issues, as residents were forced to endure eight-foot-high piles of garbage on the street and rat infestations, all while the area around Gracie Mansion was kept perfectly clean. The brutal winter also resulted in a cold-related death toll of 29. These kinds of crises test political leaders quickly, and he failed.

Then came Monday, when Mamdani held a public event to congratulate himself for New York City filing its 100,000th pothole since he took office in January.

The reaction was swift and unkind. 

"Taking credit for filling potholes is like taking credit for changing a lightbulb. It's what you're supposed to do," scoffed Councilman Frank Morano (R-Staten Island) told The New York Post. 

A Marist College survey released Wednesday puts Madani’s approval rating at 48% — a number that tells an incomplete story, but not a flattering one. 

Mamdani won his election in November with just over 50% of the vote, with Andrew Cuomo coming in second at 41.6% and Curtis Sliwa at 7%.

Clearly, Mamdani is struggling to convince even progressive voters who didn’t vote for him that he’s doing a good job.

But the numbers are even more devastating when you add more context.

Former New York City Mayor Eric Adams had a 61% approval rating at the same point in his term, proving that Mamdani is having a harder time convincing New Yorkers he’s doing a good job than his predecessor did.

The Marist poll, conducted March 26-31 among 1,454 New York City adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, reveals a city that remains skeptical but is still forming its verdict. While 30% disapprove of Mamdani's performance. 23% remain undecided — a number that Marist polling director Lee Miringoff flagged as a meaningful vulnerability. "There are a lot of people still on the fence. The jury is out," Miringoff told The New York Post.

The sharpest drag on Mamdani's numbers comes from a specific and politically significant corner of the electorate: Jewish voters. Only 38% of Jewish residents view Mamdani favorably, while 55% view him unfavorably, putting him underwater with Jewish New Yorkers by 17 points. They are the only religious group in the poll giving him a net-negative rating. 

Miringoff noted Mamdani's continued unpopularity in this community directly.

"Mamdani is going to have to pass the test of time with the Jewish community," he said.

"Jews are the voters least likely religious group to give Mamdani the benefit of the doubt."

It’s easy to understand why.

Mamdani has accused Israelis of genocide in Gaza, publicly backed the BDS movement, and aligned himself with left-wing activists — including Hasan Piker — whom many Jewish voters view as antisemitic. Mamdani’s wife has also come under fire for liking posts on social media celebrating the October 7 attacks in Israel.

Still, the broader portrait from the Marist poll is complicated.

Despite having an approval rating below 50%, the poll found 55% of registered voters hold a favorable view of the mayor, and 60% believe he's fulfilling his campaign promises. Fifty-six percent say the city is moving in the right direction, and 52% think he's changing New York for the better. Nearly 75% say he works hard. These are not the numbers of a mayor in collapse. They are, however, the numbers of a mayor who hasn't yet closed the sale.

When asked about the poll at a Brooklyn press conference, Mamdani deflected with characteristic self-assurance.

"You know, I will always leave the grades to New Yorkers themselves," he said.

"What I will say is that we are coming to the end of a hundred days in office, and we have sought to make this period one where we provide New Yorkers with a glimpse as to what these next four years will look like."

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 09:55

Novorossiysk Restarts Oil Loadings At Reduced Capacity After Drone Strike

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice

Russia has restarted limited oil loadings at its Black Sea port of Novorossiysk after a drone attack earlier this week forced a full suspension.

Operations at the Sheskharis terminal resumed late Thursday, but only one berth is currently active. A single cargo of roughly 80,000 tons is expected to depart, well below the terminal's normal capacity of about 700,000 barrels per day.

The restart comes after the Monday strike that caused fires at a fuel terminal and damaged loading infrastructure. Shipments were halted entirely. The loading schedule had since been cut, and there is no timeline for a full return to operations.

Fuel flows are also only partially back. Fuel oil loadings resumed Thursday, and at least one diesel cargo has been shipped since the attack, according to Reuters sources familiar with port activity. Novorossiysk is one of Russia's main export outlets on the Black Sea and a critical node for both Russian and Kazakh crude. The port handles shipments tied to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system, which moves crude from major Kazakhstan fields including Tengiz and Kashagan.

Damage to infrastructure earlier this week included impacts to storage tanks and loading equipment linked to CPC operations. Kazakhstan has said its export flows remain stable, but it's now operating with reduced flexibility.

Russian export infrastructure, including Baltic ports like Primorsk and Ust-Luga and several inland refineries, have repeatedly found themselves the target of Ukrainian drone attacks.

Each hit has tightened operational capacity rather than shutting it down completely. Cargoes are still moving, but at reduced rates and with fewer loading options available.

Novorossiysk's partial restart restores some export flow, but capacity remains constrained.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 09:20

Metal Shock: Gulf's Largest Aluminum Producer Declares Force Majeure

A little more than a week after Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf's largest aluminum producer, halted operations at its Al Taweelah smelter following Iranian missile and drone strikes, EGA has now declared force majeure on parts of its contract book, signaling that supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy markets and into industrial metals.

Bloomberg obtained new documents showing that EGA invoked force majeure clauses to suspend at least some deliveries after Iranian drone and missile strikes damaged the Taweelah smelter and forced it to shut down operations.

EGA is jointly owned by Mubadala Investment Company of Abu Dhabi and the Investment Corporation of Dubai, and it reported 2.83 million tons of cast metal sales in 2025, indicating on its website that it accounted for 4% of the world's aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum supply.

The EGA outage adds to mounting pressure on the global aluminum market, which was already strained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for six weeks, and still, as of this weekend, muted traffic flows through the critical waterway. Producers across the region now risk broader production cuts unless the maritime chokepoint fully reopens with no tolls. 

Aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange have surged since the strikes, with LME Aluminum trading up 50% from a year ago. The force majeure from EGA, as well as continued Hormuz chokepoint disruptions, signals tighter global supplies that may send prices even higher.

Earlier this month, Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch told clients, "Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide."

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 08:45

Visualizing America's Slide In 'Happiness Rankings' Since 2011

The United States has steadily slipped in the global happiness rankings over the past decade.

While it still ranks among the top 25 in the latest World Happiness Report, the U.S. is no longer close to the leading group of Nordic countries that consistently dominate the top spots.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, tracks the U.S. happiness ranking from 2011 to 2025, based on data from the World Happiness Report 2026.

Each annual ranking is based on a three-year average of life evaluation survey responses rather than a single year. For example, the 2025 ranking reflects responses from 2023–2025.

The U.S. Has Fallen Outside the Top 20 Happiest Countries

The United States has not always ranked outside the top 20 happiest countries.

It placed 11th in 2011, then generally ranked between 13th and 17th through 2016.

From there, its position weakened, landing at 18th or 19th in four consecutive years from 2017 to 2020.

The decline accelerated more recently.

The U.S. dropped eight spots to 23rd in 2023, reached a low of 24th in 2024, and edged back to 23rd in 2025.

Overall, the country now ranks more than a dozen places lower than it did in 2011.

Reasons Behind the Decline in America’s Happiness

The sharp drop in 2023 reflects more than a single-year change.

Because rankings are based on three-year averages, the 2023 result captures responses from 2021 to 2023—a period shaped by the post-pandemic aftermath, rising inflation, and growing cost of living pressures.

Recent editions of the report point to several contributing factors. The World Happiness Report 2024 found that declining wellbeing among Americans under 30 played a major role. The 2025 report highlighted weakening social connection, noting that just over a quarter of U.S. adults reported eating all of their meals alone in 2023—up more than 50% since 2003. Separate analysis also links lower happiness to declining social trust.

The 2026 report adds another possible factor, suggesting that heavy smartphone-based social media use may be contributing to weaker adolescent wellbeing across English-speaking countries and Western Europe.

Taken together, the U.S. decline appears tied to weaker social ties, lower trust, and a sharper deterioration in wellbeing among younger Americans.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: The World’s Happiest Countries Over Time (2019–2024) on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 07:35

Who's Afraid Of Emmanuel Macron?

Authored by J.B.Shurk via AmericanThinker.com,

French President Emmanuel Macron is doing that peculiar French thing again…acting tough while looking weak.  

He gave a speech last Friday at Yonsei University in Seoul during which he demanded that nations not become “vassals” of China or the United States.  Macron wants South Korea to join Canada, Australia, and the European Union in forming what he calls a “coalition of independence” (because “coalition of the willing” was taken) united by shared love for “international order,” “democracy,” and wasting money on “climate change.”

What a tool.  I understand that “the powers that be” have so successfully co-opted the West’s political systems that they regularly install absolute nincompoops as nominal leaders (Biden, Starmer, Carney, Merz, and European Queen Ursula, just to name a few) and call it “democracy,” but Macron is such a doofus that his “leadership” is laughable.  

Remember when the little Rothschild banker came to power a few months after President Trump had taken office and he couldn’t stop talking about standing up to “bullies”?  After putting on some high-heeled loafers and taking some lessons on masculinity from his former-schoolteacher-turned-much-older-wife, Macron insisted on turning a handshake with Trump into a death grip meant to showcase French power.  In that effete style of speech that Gaulish-Roman aristocrats enjoy — in which words sound as if they’re dropping from lips suckling grapes and licking honey — le petit fromage told the world that his fierce handshake and determined stare were the perfect weapons for countering President Trump.  Trump just laughed and patted the little French boy on the shoulder as one does to help the weak feel strong.

Fast-forward a decade, and Macron hasn’t learned a thing about being tough.  He still prances around the world like a eunuch looking for long-lost cojones.  He says he wants countries to resist the “hegemonic powers” of China and the United States by clinging to the rules-based “international order.”  Okay.  Good luck, tiny dancer.  

What’s left of the international order without the two most powerful nations on the planet?  The United States has assumed the responsibilities of the globe’s police chief since WWII.  Through its naval fleet, it ensures the security of maritime trade.  Through its economic clout, it ensures the stability of the international financial system.  Through its military might, it decides which dictators get black-bagged in the middle of the night.  As China continues its geopolitical ascent, its tentacles have stretched further into international organizations such as the United Nations’ World Health Organization and across continents with its Belt and Road Initiative.  Mark Carney has spent his time as Canada’s prime minister practically groveling at the feet of China’s Xi Jinping and begging the communist dictator to save his wintry vassal state from the bad orange man down south.

France, on the other hand, continues to be ejected from former African colonies whose peoples have grown tired of French meddling.  The French military excels only at surrendering.  And France remains distinct from Germany only because of the United States.  When little Macron insists on restoring a French-led “international order,” he sounds a lot like little Napoleon, who insisted on being called “emperor” while imprisoned on Saint Helena.

As for urging all who hear his grating voice to unite in defense of “democracy,” that’s a lark!  Europe is where “democracy” goes to die.  Every time non-Establishment political parties win the most votes in former nations (now just multicultural zones of Islamic conquest within the federation of European nothingness) such as France, Germany, and the Netherlands, “the powers that be” proudly block the winners from exercising any power.  

Europe’s political class shamelessly calls this the “firewall” against “far-right” political parties.  Of course, if you believe that nations should have borders and that government powers should be limited, you are designated “far-right.”  Just as Democrats bastardize language in the United States by calling everyone who cares about the Bill of Rights a “fascist,” the European Establishment labels anyone who believes in self-determination and personal liberty a “Nazi sympathizer.”  Then they prosecute the members of those fake “far-right” parties for expressing opinions out loud.  

That’s right!  Europe’s little gang of dimwitted yet dangerous dictators — Macron, Starmer, Merz, and the ruling queen — insist on locking up the “fascists” for their speech in the name of “democracy”!  When the “firewall” fails — as it did in Romania a little over a year ago — the European oligarchy simply cancels the election and insists on a rigged do-over (or outright overthrows the government as it did, with the help of the U.S. State Department and CIA, in Ukraine in 2014).  

When little European tyrants such as Macron stand on footstools, puff out their chests, and shriek about “democracy,” they have no intention of supporting the decisions of the people.  What they mean is, let’s form a European Commission of aristocrats, have them choose a ruling monarch, and call that a “democratic” election.  That’s how the nations of Europe lost their sovereignty and why the people of Europe must now bow down to unelected Queen Ursula von der Leyen.  

Even if mini-mouse Macron’s calls for “international order” and “democracy” fail to rally a sufficient posse of vassal states willing to take on the United States and China, he’ll surely find ready volunteers who want to keep shooting their economies in the gonads over “climate change,” right?  Who doesn’t want to continue wasting taxpayer dollars on fighting the weather?  While Russia, China, and the United States continue spending more on their militaries than ever before, the soft-headed “leaders” of Europe have been pretending to wage war against nature.  “Tilting at windmills” was one of Cervantes’s best jokes in Don Quixote.  The Europeans — having jettisoned their civilization for that of their Islamic invaders — no longer understand why pretending to fight imaginary monsters is funny!

For decades, Europe’s quixotic “leaders” have spent their military budgets on wind and solar energy.  In the name of “fighting climate change,” Europe’s brilliant tacticians severely limited hydrocarbon exploration, extraction, and processing.  Germany ignored scientific reason after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan and rid itself almost entirely of nuclear energy.  First, Europe’s braintrust made the sub-continent dependent upon the Russian Federation for energy.  Then, that same gaggle of Mensa geniuses sanctioned Russian energy in the name of Ukrainian “democracy.”  Now Europe is largely dependent on the United States, Russia, and the Middle East for energy.  Europe’s producers must spend more to make things.  Europe’s consumers must pay more to buy things.  Europe’s middle class keeps getting poorer.  How many times can Europe’s moronic “leaders” cripple their economies before Europe’s peoples raid the museums for functioning guillotines? 

If little-bitty Macron doesn’t want France to be a “vassal” of China or the United States, he should strive to deregulate his nation, protect private property, incentivize innovation, grow the economy, and encourage self-sufficiency.  Instead, France and the rest of Europe embrace bureaucratic rule-making, collective ownership, expansive welfare, centralized economic planning, and dependency upon U.S. military muscle.  If you spend your country’s wealth on fighting bad weather and providing Islamic invaders “free” food and housing, don’t complain when China and the United States refuse to take you seriously.  

To be fair to Europe’s retarded governing class, we’re fighting similar idiotic policies being promoted by the fifth-column Democrat Party in America, too.  

The difference is that Americans are actively trying to right the ship, and, as President Trump continues to demonstrate, our military can still blow things up.  

Reality is not kind to those who prefer handouts and fantasy to handwork and preparation.  Because Europe’s “leaders” have hollowed out their economies and militaries for decades, they are in no position to influence the future.  They will take what they get and be grateful…as all desperate vassals must.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 07:00

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• How Bonds Ended the Civil War—and Led to the Rise of J.P. Morgan: The financial history of the Civil War reads like a thriller—government bonds, speculative fever, and the rise of the most powerful banker in American history. (Barron’s)

• Long-Term Money: Morgan Housel on the power of compounding and why most people can’t fathom how the world will look in 50 years. If you could show our ancestors a modern grocery store, they’d faint. (Collaborative Fund)

• My Quest to Solve Bitcoin’s Great Mystery: A reporter chases the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto and lands on Adam Back. The greatest pseudonymous act in financial history may finally have its face. Bitcoin’s creator has hidden behind the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto for 17 years. But a trail of clues buried deep in crypto lore led to a 55-year-old computer scientist named Adam Back. (New York Times)

• Long-Term Money  If you could show any of these people a modern grocery store, they would faint from disbelief. They could not comprehend that the biggest challenge of grocery shopping is deciding which of the 19 brands of jelly to buy, or that in January you can buy papayas in Minnesota. But most shocking would be the pharmacy in the back, which they would find magical. And what would their response be? “You are so spoiled.” (Collaborative Fund).

• The creation of instant: coffee Instant coffee seems unremarkable. It’s just powder and hot water. But making it work took decades: Instant coffee seems unremarkable. It’s just powder and hot water. But making it work took decades. (Works In Progress)

• Finding the Cattle Queen: Steakhouse royalty, feminist icon, fungible tourism graphic—she deserves a proper title https://www.nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/finding-the-cattle-queen/

• Joanna Stern on how AI told her to quit The Wall Street Journal: The WSJ’s top tech columnist recounts how an AI system advised her to leave her job. A fascinating and unsettling window into how these tools are reshaping how people think about their careers. (Semafor)

• Snake Bros Keep Getting Bitten by Their Lethal Pets. Only Zoos Can Save Them Your venomous serpent bites you, and the clock is ticking. America’s zoo network is the last line of defense for social media’s deadliest hobby. Your venomous serpent bites you, and the clock is ticking. America’s zookeepers—and a cooler full of rare antivenom—are your best chance of survival. (Wired)

• The Hair-Loss Drug Rewriting the Rules of Masculinity: Finasteride isn’t just saving hairlines—it’s reshaping how men think about aging, vanity, and what they’re willing to swallow (literally) to hold onto youth. (New York Times)

• The World’s Best Destinations for Astrotourism in 2026: From nocturnal wildlife safaris to stargazing train rides, a dark sky expert shares her favorite astrotourism adventures around the world.. From nocturnal wildlife safaris to stargazing train rides, a dark sky expert shares her favorite astrotourism adventures around the world. (Outside)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group (PMG) and member of the Global Executive Committee. He helps oversee $5 trillion in client assets across systematic & discretionary strategies as well as directly overseeing PMG’s hedge funds platform. He also heads the  BlackRock Investment Institute.

 

 “Trump always chickens out” has become a consistently profitable pattern: 9 of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest gains have had to do with relief over tariffs or Iran

Source: @CharlieBilello

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.