Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

6) Monetary Policy:  The FOMC cut the federal funds rate three times in 2025 from "4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent" at the beginning of 2025, to "3-1/2 to 3-3/4" at the end of the year. The mid-range on the "dot plot" suggests many FOMC participants expect around one to two 25 bp rate cuts in 2026.  What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

As of December, looking at the "dot plot", the FOMC participants see the following number of rate moves in 2026:
25 bp Rate MovesFOMC
Members
2026 One Rate Hike3 No Change4 One Rate Cut4 Two Rate Cuts4 Three Rate Cuts2 Four Rate Cuts1 More than Four1
This is a wide range of views.
Goldman Sachs economists think there will be 2 rate cuts in 2026:

"We expect the FOMC to compromise on two more 25bp cuts to 3-3.25% but see the risks as tilted lower. "

A key question: How accommodative is current policy?  With core PCE inflation at 2.8% year-over-year in September (the data for October and November is delayed due to the government shutdown) and the "neutral rate" at 1.5% would suggest a Fed Funds Rate at around 4.3% (Of course, estimates of the neutral rate vary widely). 
Currently the target Fed Funds rate range is '3-1/2 to 3-3/4' percent.  And the FOMC projections show core PCE inflation only declining to 2.4 to 2.6% by the end of 2026 (Q4-over-Q4).
However, the FOMC believes inflation will come down as the tariff pass-through fades, and also because of a further declines in housing inflation.   Asking rents have been flat for almost three years, and measures of rent (housing / shelter) are steadily declining.
If we look at recent readings over the last 6 months annualized (through September):PCE Price Index: 2.7% Core PCE Prices: 2.7%Core minus Housing: 2.6%
In Q1 2025, PCE inflation was high.  There might be some residual seasonality in Q1, so it seems likely inflation will be lower in Q1 2026, lowering the YoY measures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on January 28th, and the FOMC will likely hold rates steady at that meeting.  
Due to the ongoing weakness in the labor market, my guess is there will be 2 rate cuts in 2026 with many dissents!  We might even see the 1st ever Fed Chair dissent
As long as the Fed remains independent, FOMC policy will depend on what happens with inflation and employment in 2026.  
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

• Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

• Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

• Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

• Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• Scams, Schemes, Ruthless Cons: The Untold Story of How Jeffrey Epstein Got Rich: For years, rumors swirled about where his wealth came from. A Times investigation reveals the truth of how a college dropout clawed his way to the pinnacle of American finance and society. (New York Times)

• How Did DOGE Disrupt So Much While Saving So Little? The group’s biggest claims were largely incorrect, a New York Times analysis found. And its many smaller cuts added up to few savings. (New York Times) see also A Year In, the MAGA Labor Market Story Has Fallen Apart: The administration bet on government cuts, tariffs, deportations, and a gendered theory of growth. The data say otherwise. (Mike Konczal)

• How Starbucks Came Undone: In the ’90s, it became a once-in-a-generation triumph. Then it fell apart. What happened? (Slate)

• The latest government inflation and GDP figures are worthless, and will be for months to come: The federal government’s monthly releases of economic statistics — especially the inflation rate and growth as tracked by gross domestic product — have long occasioned partisan preening (or denunciation) and for a general public stock-taking of the health of the economy. Not this month. This time, they’re the occasion for doubt and confusion. (LA Times)

• These kitchen items may be contaminating your food with chemicals: See the thousands of plastic chemicals in what we eat. These chemicals act on the body in multiple ways — confusing hormones, disrupting immune systems and boosting cancer cells. But they all have one thing in common: They are intimately linked to plastic. (Washington Post)

• 15 People Have Died in Crashes Where Tesla Doors Wouldn’t Open: There are no official statistics on the dangers of electric handles. So Bloomberg did its own analysis. (Bloomberg)

• There’s a 92 Percent Chance Trump Is Making It Up: When riffing, the president exhibits an unusual tell. (The Atlantic) see also Here’s how Trump gets away with using dubious numbers: Trump doesn’t use numbers the way most of us do, as “things that can be added, subtracted, multiplied, and divided,” as Columbia University statistician Andrew Gelman put it. Rather, he uses them as rhetorical objects. (Los Angeles Times)

• The Florida Divorcée’s Guide to Murder: Hit Man: A Technical Manual for Independent Contractors inspired a triple murder and led to a major First Amendment case. Still, the book is just one chapter in the bizarre story of its author, “Rex Feral,” a 77-year-old great-grandmother wrestling with decades of guilt and living anonymously—until now. (Vanity Fair)

• Bari Weiss spiked a major migrant story — and told on herself: Weiss’ catch-and-kill puts her editorial incompetence at CBS News on public view. (Salon) see also Bari Weiss is Not on the Level: When Fairness Becomes Permission for Lawlessness. (Notes from the Circus) see also Here’s the 60 Minutes Segment Trump and CBS News Executives Don’t Want You to See: Hours before it was set to air last night, CBS News executives pulled the segment, but Canada’s Global TV app received it prior to broadcast. It’s now all over the internet… (The Reset)

• Russia’s Puppet Tulsi Gabbard Strikes Again: How the Director of National Intelligence Is Laundering Kremlin Lies, Undermining NATO, and Endangering U.S. National Security. (Unmasking Russia)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

Have tariff policies been benign for the economy? The data implies otherwise

Source: LinkedIn

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~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Europe's Farmer Protests Are A Warning America Can't Ignore

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

I want to be very clear.

Yes, I am a regenerative farmer.

Yes, I farm without chemicals.

Yes, I speak publicly—on podcasts, from stages, and in print—about better ways to grow food.

But I never villainize farmers. Not conventional farmers. Not farmers locked into systems they did not design. Not farmers working with razor-thin margins, massive equipment debt, weather risk, and policy pressure stacked against them.

No one wants to be the generation that loses the farm.

And yet that is exactly what is unfolding across Europe right now...and quietly, steadily, in the United States as well.

Over the past two years, farmers across Europe have mobilized at a scale that should dominate headlines. Instead, it has been treated as background noise.

In the Netherlands, farmers have protested nitrogen rules that would force mass farm closures—even among low-input and regenerative operations. In France, farmers have blocked highways and surrounded Paris with tractors, protesting fuel taxes, land-use restrictions, and impossible compliance burdens. In Germany, tens of thousands of farmers drove tractors into Berlin over the removal of diesel tax exemptions that many farms rely on to survive. In Belgium, farmers dumped produce and manure outside EU buildings in Brussels. In Poland, Romania, and Hungary, farmers have protested cheap imports and regulations that apply to domestic producers but not foreign competitors.

These are not isolated events. They are sustained, multinational protests by people who feed entire continents.

And yet the coverage is minimal, fleeting, or framed as an inconvenient disruption rather than an existential warning.

European farmers are not protesting environmental responsibility. Many already practice conservation, reduced inputs, rotational grazing, cover cropping, and soil-building methods.

What they are rejecting is regulation divorced from reality.

Under policies driven by the European Union and initiatives like the European Green Deal, farmers face rules that impose arbitrary nitrogen caps per acre, treat synthetic nitrogen and organic nitrogen as if they are identical, require land to be taken out of production regardless of local context, and demand extensive reporting and compliance that small and mid-size farms cannot absorb.

This is no longer about practices. There are fully regenerative farmers—no chemicals, integrated livestock, biologically active soils—who are still being regulated to death.

Biology cannot be legislated by spreadsheet.

Cows on grass are not the same as animals in confinement. Cover-cropped fields with livestock integration are not the same as continuous monocropping. Rainfall, soil type, slope, climate, and ecosystem function matter.

Yet modern regulation ignores all of this.

Instead, it relies on modeling, averages, AI projections, and “eco-science” disconnected from outcome-based measurement. These rules are written far from the fields, enforced uniformly across radically different landscapes, and paid for by farmers who were never invited to the table.

If governments want fewer chemicals in the food system, the solution is straightforward: ban the chemical. Then step back and let farmers adapt and innovate.

What does not work is regulating farmers themselves with arbitrary input limits that punish nuance and reward consolidation.

When farming becomes unworkable, land changes hands.

Small and mid-size farms fold first. Family land is sold. Consolidation accelerates. Institutional capital moves in. Farmers become tenants—or disappear entirely.

European farmers understand this. That is why they are angry. They are not fighting for comfort. They are fighting for their land, their livelihoods, and their way of life.

They want to be left alone to grow food.

What Europe is experiencing is not a foreign anomaly. It is a preview.

In the United States, the regulatory burden on farmers and food entrepreneurs is already staggering. Joel Salatin titled his book “Everything I Want to Do Is Illegal” because for many farmers, that is not hyperbole—it is daily life.

Every permit, inspection, compliance mandate, and fine functions as a form of taxation without representation.

No founding generation imagined a country where every carcass must be stamped by a federal inspector, where farmers are criminalized for selling food directly to their communities, or where innovation outside industrial models is functionally illegal.

And yet here we are.

If all this interference produced extraordinary health outcomes, perhaps the argument could be made that it was worth it.

But Americans are sicker than ever.

More than 40 percent of adults are obese. Nearly half of adults have prediabetes or type 2 diabetes. Metabolic dysfunction is now normal.

This is not happening despite regulation. It is happening alongside it.

So why, after decades of food and farm regulation, are health outcomes collapsing?

Because regulation does not target the true problem. It protects corporate interests.

Farmers do not have powerful lobbies. Chemical companies do. Seed conglomerates do. Large processors do.

Regulation often preserves harmful substances in the food system while making it illegal for farmers to operate outside centralized, industrial pipelines.

After the Food Safety Modernization Act under President Barack Obama, many farmers were suddenly unable to sell directly to grocery stores.

Food had to travel farther. Middlemen became mandatory. Small producers were pushed out.

The result was less fresh food, lower nutrient density, and greater distance between people and their food.

We may have reduced certain types of foodborne illness—but we did not create a healthier population.

Every layer of interference pulls us further from food, farmers, and biological truth.

European farmers are not extremists. They are early warning systems.

They are telling us that overregulation destroys resilience, undermines food security, and centralizes control of land and food.

They are telling us that stewardship cannot be mandated by spreadsheet.

And they are asking something profoundly reasonable.

Talk to us. Not at us.

Invite farmers to the table. Regulate at the chemical level if something is unsafe. Measure outcomes, not inputs. Reduce bureaucracy instead of expanding it.

Why are tractors filling European cities while the media barely notices?

Because acknowledging these protests would require admitting something uncomfortable: that governments are overreaching, that farmers are right, and that the systems sold as “for the public good” are failing both the public and the people who feed it.

What’s happening in Europe should concern every American.

Because once you regulate farmers out of existence, you don’t get them back.

And no society survives long after it breaks its relationship with the land—and the people who know how to work it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 21:00

Key Bolsonaro Ally Caught In Neighboring Paraguay After Fleeing House Arrest

Brazilian authorities are really going after some of the loyalists of imprisoned ex-President Jair Bolsonaro. In the latest, a former Brazilian police chief who fled the country after being convicted for his role in an alleged "attempted coup" linked to Bolsonaro has been arrested in Paraguay.

Silvinei Vasques was detained Friday at Silvio Pettirossi International Airport in Asunción, Paraguay authorities confirmed in a statement. He was detained charges of "identity theft" after trying to bypass immigration checks by posing as a Paraguayan citizen.

Paraguay border police image after Silvinei Vasques caught in country illegally. 

He was trying to board a flight to Panama, claiming El Salvador as his final destination. Apparently he didn't enter Paraguay legally, but entered "clandestinely" while "evading justice in his home country."

Vasques as a powerful former police official in Brazil was accused of ordering highway patrol officers to block voters in left-leaning regions during the 2022 election, which Bolsonaro eventually lost to current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

He was arrested in 2023 and released under supervision with an electronic ankle monitor while awaiting trial. His legal proceedings have been running simultaneously to the more high profile Bolsonaro case.

At the conclusion of his trial, Vasques was sentenced to more than two years in prison to be served under house arrest, after which he fled the country. Regional reports indicated that he broke his ankle monitor and drove into Paraguay.

But he apparently made a break for it after on Friday Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered the former police chief's preventive detention as a precaution.

Other alleged co-conspirators who are allies of Bolsonaro have also fled. One notable one is former intelligence agency director Alexandre Ramagem, who earlier left Brazil in September and has since been living in the United States.

Fake passports found on 'wanted' ex highway police chief as he was trying to make it to El Salvador...

El exdirector de la Policía de Tránsito Federal brasileña, Silvinei Vasques, llega a Brasil tras ser entregado por las autoridades paraguayas.

El Director de Migración de Paraguay, Jorge Kronawetter, informó que al contrastar datos se confirmó que Vasques portaba un documento… https://t.co/XXtJH58nV6 pic.twitter.com/EBzOw5PFBz

— Nacho Lemus (@LemusteleSUR) December 27, 2025

As for Bolsonaro himself, once dubbed the "Brazilian Donald Trump" - at the age of 70 he is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted in September of trying to prevent Lula from taking office.

Last week the former president underwent surgery for a hernia, and has been suffering a variety of health problems while first under house arrest and now under confinement, after he too was caught trying to break his ankle monitor.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 20:25

Let Americans Choose Their Cars - Not The Government

Authored by James K. Glassman via RealClearEnergy,

There’s a lot of crowing in certain quarters about the 2% decline in U.S. electric vehicle sales in 2025 compared to the year before. Francis Menton, the lawyer who writes the Manhattan Contrarian blog, for instance, claims vindication for his prediction in February 2023 that electric vehicles would not “sweep the country and become the dominant form of transportation.”

The reasoning behind his forecast: “It is always wise to bet against central planning of the economy.” In this case, central planning amounted to state CO2 emissions goals, CAFE mileage requirements and federal and state tax subsidies. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act ended the $7,500 tax credit for EV purchases, and President Trump on Dec. 3 issued an order to roll back CAFE standards “to levels at which combustion vehicles can comply.”

Like Menton, I don’t like central planning. Nor do I support mileage standards or subsidies. Americans have proven in the past that the best route to prosperity and health is free competition without government meddling. Unfortunately, that is not what we have anymore.

Our own government is denying Americans the opportunity to buy the cars of their choice by imposing huge tariffs on low-priced electric vehicles, which are pouring into the rest of the world.

EV sales in the U.S. are languishing for many reasons, including a lack of charging stations, but the biggest problem is cost. Our EVs are absurdly expensive. Competition from China, India and perhaps even Mexico and would help bring down prices – and make U.S. EV makers more efficient.

In the rest of the world EV sales are booming,  up 21% through November compared to last year. In all, sales of cars and trucks powered by electricity will reach 20 million by year-end. In 2020, global sales were just 3 million.

One of the biggest changes is the advent of inexpensive Chinese-built EVs, which carry a special 100% U.S. tariff, initially imposed by Joe Biden in 2024 and extended under Donald Trump. These EVs are effectively barred from the U.S. market, the world’s second-largest (after China itself). Nevertheless, China sells 62% of the world’s EVs and 71% of global EV batteries.

The European Union also has high tariffs on Chinese EVs (43%), but the UK does not. As a result, the British are rushing to buy electrics like those offered by BYD in its more than 100 retail outlets across the country. BYD, now the world’s largest EV maker, is selling 10 times as many cars in the UK as it did last year. Total EV sales in the UK have jumped 25% this year, and 22.7% of vehicles registered in the country in 2025 are  fully electric, compared with a little less than 10% in the U.S.

BYD is building EVs 25% more cheaply than Western competitors. The company has a broad lineup, but what’s happening in the UK and around the world is that the EV is no longer a rich person’s novelty. The small BYD Dolphin Surf has list price of 18,650 British pounds, or $25,129. The company’s Seagull starts at under $8,000 in China. Meanwhile, Mexico is promising to build a line of economy EVs that will debut next year and cost $4,400 to $7,400 U.S. dollars.

Electric cars and trucks have far fewer moving parts than vehicles powered by internal combustion engines, and they are cheaper to build and operate. “The battery, motor, and associated electronics require little to no regular maintenance,” says the U.S. Department of Energy. And EVs have instantaneous torque, that is, maximum power from the starting line, so even a large vehicles like GM’s Hummer EV can go from zero to 60 in just three seconds. They are fun to drive.

Nations concerned about climate change have been subsidizing EVs, but the economics of have changed, and subsidies are no longer necessary to get people to buy electric. We see the same phenomenon in electricity generation at utility plants. Because of technological innovation, solar and wind, with battery back-up, have become the cheapest and fastest way to add power to the grid – without subsidies. This is not about climate-change ideology.

My own conclusion is that, because of economics and the driving pleasure they provide, EVs are the future. But I could be wrong. To find out, let’s drop the subsidies and the tariffs and leave the choice of cars and trucks to consumers themselves.

James K. Glassman served as Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs in the George W. Bush Administration. He was also formerly a fellow in ecnoomics and technology at the American Enterprise Institute. Long ago, he was the car columnist for The Washingtonian magazine. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 19:50

75 US Deportees To End Up On Tiny Island In Cash Deal With Local Rulers

In the Trump administration's latest display of creativity when it comes to unloading unwanted immigrants, the United States has made a deal with the rulers of the tiny Pacific island nation of Palau, which will take 75 rejected migrants off Uncle Sam's hands in exchange for $100,000 per head. The deportees in question will be a diverse group, but they'll likely share one thing in common -- none of them are from Palau, or ever heard of it.  

Palau will serve as a small relief valve for situations where a migrant's home country refuses to take them back. “Palau and the United States signed a Memorandum of Understanding allowing up to 75 third country nationals, who have never been charged with a crime, to live and work in Palau, helping address local labor shortages in needed occupations,” said Palauan President Surangel Whipps in a statement. 

Located in the Pacific region of Micronesia, Palau comprises some 350 tiny coral and volcanic islands, with a population of only 18,000. It was administered by the US government from World War II to 1994, when it became independent. However, it has maintained close relations with America via an arrangement called "free association," which lets Palauans work, live or study in the United States -- but we're guessing that privilege won't be extended to the 75 deportees. Palau also uses the US dollar as its currency, and its mail is delivered by the USPS.

Most Americans who previously heard of Palau probably did so when it was the setting of Season 10 of the reality-competition show "Survivor"

The cash-for-unwanted-migrants deal was opposed by Palau's legislature. “We strongly advise against proceeding further on this matter,” said the leaders of both houses in a joint letter. “We cannot afford to overpromise or commit to something we cannot fulfill.”  Palau's advisory Council of Chiefs firmly objected too, similarly concerned that the island chain already has enough challenges on its hands without having to assimilate 75 deportees from who-knows-where speaking who-knows-what languages: 

“Our position has not been an easy one to reach because the request comes to us from our number one ally, the U.S. We are certain, however, that our best friend understands our precarious and fragile situation as a tiny island nation seeking to exist in this complex world.”

Palau's president plunged ahead anyway, after trying to reassure skeptics by saying, "These are not criminals. Their only offense was entering the United States illegally and working without proper permits.” Beyond raking in $7.5 million from the United States for "public service and infrastructure needs" associated with handling the newcomers, Palau will also get a $6 million injection "to prevent collapse of the civil service pension plan," plus another $2 million for law enforcement initiatives.  

Israeli President Isaac Herzog with Palau's then-UN Ambassador Ilana Seid. Palau is routinely among a tiny group of states that join the US in voting against anti-Israel resolutions

Palau is a regular beneficiary of US wealth transfers, and a hefty 12% of Palau's GDP comes from US and other foreign aid. Not coincidentally, Palau is one of four tiny, inconsequential Pacific states that routinely join the US in voting against anti-Israel resolutions at the UN; the others are Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Nauru. 

Palau joins a small handful of third-world nations who've either agreed to take third-country deportees from the United States, or are deliberating that pitch -- among them, Eswatini, Rwanda, South Sudan and Uganda. Unlike Palau, the tiny African kingdom of Eswatini has accepted violent illegal immigrants, whom a senior US Homeland Security official described as "so uniquely barbaric that their home countries refused to take them back." 

The Trump administration's "safe third-country" agreements create a novel and amusing deterrent for illegal immigrants and bogus asylum-seekers -- a veritable roulette wheel that could have them waking up in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and playing their own version of "Survivor." 

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 19:15

Wealthy Chinese Elites Use US Surrogacy System To Have Dozens Of Children

Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Chinese billionaires and elites are increasingly using the United States’ permissive surrogacy system to have large numbers of children—sometimes dozens, or more—according to allegations made in Chinese media.

Increasing numbers of wealthy Chinese couples are hiring the services of American surrogate mothers to give birth to their babies to circumvent China's one child policy. In the photo, hundreds of Chinese babies accompanied by their parents prepare to take part in a baby swimming contest. STR/Getty Images

The surrogate children become U.S. citizens through birthright citizenship. 

According to Chinese media, Chinese gaming company Duoyi Network released a statement on social media disputing a report from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) saying that Xu Bo, Duoyi’s founder and chairman, fathered potentially more than 100 children in the United States via surrogacy. The statement said that Xu “only had 12 children in the United States via surrogacy.”

Xu’s company later issued a statement on social media acknowledging that Xu had more than 100 children born via surrogacy in the United States.

WSJ cited court documents saying that in 2023, Xu petitioned a Los Angeles family court for parental rights over four unborn children. During the proceedings, the judge determined that Xu was already the father—or in the process of becoming the father—of at least eight children through surrogacy.

Xu, who was in China at the time, appeared at a closed-door hearing by video. Through an interpreter, he reportedly told the court he hoped to have more than 20 U.S.-born children and expressed a preference for sons, saying boys were better suited to inherit a family business, according to WSJ’s account of the hearing.

Xu said the children were being raised by nannies in the United States while awaiting travel documentation to China. He told the court he had not yet met the children due to his work commitments. 

Amy Pellman, the judge overseeing the case, reportedly ruled that surrogacy is intended to help people build families—not to facilitate large-scale reproduction beyond the scope of ordinary child-rearing. In a rare move, she denied Xu’s parental rights petition.

The Epoch Times cannot independently verify the details of the court case because such family court proceedings take place behind closed doors and are not published.

Xu was a former senior executive at China’s online gaming giant NetEase. His personal fortune has been estimated by Chinese media at roughly 28 billion yuan (about US$3.9 billion).

Claims About Scale of Surrogacy

The case has drawn renewed attention in China following social media posts by Tang Jing, described in Chinese media as Xu’s former girlfriend. In a post published on Weibo in November, Tang alleged she had helped raise 13 of Xu’s children in Japan, including two daughters she said were born naturally to the couple and 11 children born through surrogacy using donated sperm.

Tang alleged that Xu had “no fewer than 300 children.” 

Although Xu’s company rejected the figure of 300 children in a statement posted online, Xu has publicly referred to himself as “China’s No. 1 Dad.”

Verified social media accounts linked to Xu show repeated statements about his desire to build what he called a large “family dynasty.” In posts dating back several years, Xu wrote that “having more children can solve all problems” and said he hoped to have “50 high-quality sons.” 

Others Linked to US Surrogacy

Xu’s case is not isolated. According to Chinese state-controlled media reports, other wealthy Chinese individuals have also reportedly used surrogacy services in the United States to produce large families.

According to state-controlled The Time Weekly, one former executive of XJ International Holdings paid large sums to obtain eggs from American models and musicians and used surrogacy to have 10 daughters. The supposed goal was to groom the children for future marriages into powerful or influential families around the world. Online discussion of the case briefly surfaced in China in 2021 before being quickly censored. Chinese media said that the executive’s father declined to comment on the matter, while the company’s staff disputed the claim and said it was a mere “rumor.”

Some senior Chinese officials have also been linked to overseas surrogacy. In 2023, the Financial Times, citing six anonymous sources familiar with the matter, reported that former Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang had an extramarital relationship with a Chinese state-owned Phoenix Television host and that they had a son born in the United States via surrogacy. Qin was later removed from office amid unrelated political turmoil.

The U.S. surrogacy industry has developed into a full-service ecosystem involving agencies, law firms, fertility clinics, and childcare providers. Some foreign clients are able to complete the process by only providing genetic material and never entering the United States.

A single surrogacy arrangement could cost anywhere from $100,000 to $250,000, according to American Surrogacy.

Most states do not prohibit foreign nationals from using surrogacy services, and many court proceedings related to parental rights are sealed. There is also no comprehensive mechanism for sharing surrogacy-related data across states, creating regulatory blind spots.

Lin Yan contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 18:40

Mamdani Picks DEI Poster Child To Head FDNY

New York City’s incoming mayor, Zohran Mamdani, has named retired EMS chief Lillian Bonsignore to run the FDNY, and the pick has generated some legitimate skepticism from those who believe that she wasn’t picked for her qualifications. The appointment makes Bonsignore only the second woman to serve as fire commissioner and the first openly gay person to hold the position. But critics zeroed in on a far more consequential fact: she has never served as a firefighter.

New FDNY Captain (center) via FDNY

While it’s true that Bonsignore spent 31 years with the FDNY, all of it was on the emergency medical services side. She joined as an EMT in 1991 at Lincoln Hospital in the South Bronx and climbed through the ranks, eventually running EMS operations during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2019 to 2022. She retired in 2022 and will now return to oversee 11,000 firefighters, 4,500 EMTs, and more than 2,000 civilian employees.

"I am honored, so honored, and humbled to stand before you as the new fire commissioner," she told reporters. "I know the job. I know what the firefighters need, and I can translate that to this administration who's willing to listen. I know what EMS needs, I've been EMS for 30 plus years.”

But even Bonsignore isn’t oblivious to the identity politics at play. She also highlighted the symbolic value of her appointment for the LGBTQ community. 

"There are some young LGBTQ members that maybe don't see this as a possibility for them, and I want them to know that there's nothing that can stop them from finding success," she said. 

That remark drew swift criticism from those who view the appointment as driven by Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) priorities rather than actual firefighting credentials for someone picked to lead one of the world's largest fire departments.

Mamdani presented Bonsignore's appointment as a component of his larger plan for public safety. He insists that reducing response times, enhancing hospital coordination, increasing e-bike charging stations to prevent lithium-ion battery fires, and addressing EMT pay parity are among Bonsignore's top priorities.

"I am dedicated to the fostering of a culture of support, innovation, and continuous improvement within the department," Bonsignore said. "My goal is to ensure that every member has the resources and environment they need to perform their roles safely and effectively.”

Despite Mamdani’s claim that the appointment of Bonsignore is part of his safety agenda, Elon Musk blasted the appointment.

“People will die because of this,” Musk wrote Friday. “Proven experience matters when lives are at stake.”

He is not wrong, and the Los Angeles wildfires earlier this year proved how a city’s obsession with DEI and politics can cripple a Fire Department’s readiness when it matters most. 

Instead of making sure the department was adequately staffed, trained, and equipped, LAFD leadership and Mayor Bass's administration had used their political capital on image, ideology, and diversity box-checking while residents faced "life-threatening" wind and fire conditions. 

Fire Chief Kristin Crowley, the first openly gay and female leader of the Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD), spent her tenure more focused on DEI initiatives than readiness or preparedness. In fact, on her watch, the LAFD spent millions to create a DEI bureau that developed programs to recruit more women and LGBTQ+ firefighters.

The result was an ill-prepared force that could not fully mobilize when the January fires hit, even though internal documents showed the department had the capacity to send hundreds of firefighters and additional engines into high‑risk corridors. In fact, former fire chiefs argued that long‑standing wildfire tactics could have significantly reduced the damage.

Los Angeles offered a cautionary tale to all of us, and New York, under Zohran Mamdani’s leadership, clearly didn’t learn the lesson. When DEI takes precedence over experience and competence, public safety suffers. Los Angeles paid a colossal price to learn that lesson.

The troubling question now is whether New York City is heading down the same path. Hopefully, it won’t take a disaster like the Palisades fire to answer that question.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 18:05

Coinbase CEO Says Reopening GENIUS Act Is 'Red Line', Slams Bank Lobbying

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said any attempt to reopen the GENIUS Act would cross a “red line,” accusing banks of using political pressure to block competition from stablecoins and fintech platforms.

In a Sunday post on X, Armstrong said he was “impressed” banks could lobby Congress so openly without backlash, adding that Coinbase would continue pushing back on efforts to revise the law.

“We won’t let anyone reopen GENIUS,” he wrote.

“My prediction is the banks will actually flip and be lobbying FOR the ability to pay interest and yield on stablecoins in a few years, once they realize how big the opportunity is for them. So it’s 100% wasted effort on their part (in addition to being unethical),” Armstrong added.

The GENIUS Act, passed after months of negotiations, bars stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly but allows platforms and third parties to offer rewards.

Coinbase CEO warning against reopening the GENIUS Act. Source: Brian Armstrong

Bank lobbying targets stablecoin “rewards”

Armstrong’s comments came in response to a post by Max Avery, a board member and business development executive at Digital Ascension Group, who outlined why parts of the banking sector are pushing lawmakers to revisit the legislation.

Avery argued that proposed amendments would go beyond banning direct interest payments by stablecoin issuers and instead restrict “rewards” more broadly, cutting off indirect yield-sharing mechanisms offered by platforms and third parties.

Avery pointed out that while banks currently earn around 4% on reserves parked at the Federal Reserve, consumers often receive close to zero on traditional savings accounts. Stablecoin platforms, he said, threaten that model by offering to share some of that yield with users.

“They're calling it a ‘safety concern.’ They're worried about ‘community bank deposits,’” he wrote, adding that independent research “shows zero evidence of disproportionate deposit outflows from community banks.”

US lawmakers propose tax relief for stablecoin payments

Last week, US lawmakers unveiled a discussion draft aimed at reducing the tax burden on everyday crypto users by exempting small stablecoin transactions from capital gains taxes. The proposal, introduced by Representatives Max Miller and Steven Horsford, would allow payments of up to $200 in regulated, dollar-pegged stablecoins to avoid gain or loss recognition.

Beyond payments, the bill targets taxation issues around staking and mining by allowing taxpayers to defer income recognition on rewards for up to five years.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 17:30

Does It Get Any More Cringe Than This?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Just when you thought Gavin Newsom couldn’t get any more cringe, he drops a video with his wife Jennifer Siebel Newsom wishing Californians a “joyful Kwanzaa” – a made-up holiday that’s about as authentic as his political posturing.

In the awkward clip posted to his official X account, Newsom and his wife deliver a rehearsed message stating “As families come together to light the kinara, we wish you all a joyful Kwanzaa.”

Newsom further referenced “the seven principles of Kwanzaa, in particular community, purpose, and unity, guide our way toward a better future.”

As families come together to light the kinara, Jen and I wish all those celebrating a joyful Kwanzaa.

May the seven principles of Kwanzaa, in particular community, purpose, and unity, guide our way toward a better future.

Happy Kwanzaa, California! pic.twitter.com/317XOId1Ki

— Governor Gavin Newsom (@CAgovernor) December 27, 2025

Everything about this is focus-grouped and phony. It’s the kind of performative nonsense that turns stomachs and highlights how out-of-touch Democrat leaders remain, even after their electoral drubbing.

Who exactly is Newsom trying to impress here? The video is a blatant pander to an almost nonexistent crowd. The tiny sliver of ultra-woke activists who still cling to outdated identity politics? In reality, most Americans – including the vast majority of African Americans – don’t celebrate Kwanzaa, given that it is an artificial construct rather than a genuine tradition.

What the Hell Is Kwanzaa, Anyway? no, it isn’t some ancient African tradition passed down through generations. It was invented in 1966 by Maulana Karenga, a black separatist and activist, in the wake of the Watts riots. Karenga, whose real name was Ronald McKinley Everett, created it as a non-Christian alternative to Christmas, drawing loosely from various African harvest festivals.

But here’s the kicker: Karenga was later convicted in 1971 of felony assault and false imprisonment for torturing two women in his organization. He served time in prison, yet his fabricated holiday lives on as a symbol of cultural separatism.

Basically the only people actually celebrating this are east coat white ultra woke ‘progressives’ attempting to tick every diversity checkbox possible as they virtue signal their way through life.

Newsom’s stunt reeks of desperation, especially as he eyes a 2028 presidential run. Under his watch, California grapples with skyrocketing homelessness, unchecked crime, and an exodus of residents fleeing his failed policies. Yet here he is, blathering about “unity” while his state fractures under open borders and economic mismanagement.

It’s peak ideological capture: Newsom is so ensnared by leftist dogma that he can’t resist alienating the mainstream. This from the guy who just last month urged his party to dial back the cultural extremism.

Instead of projecting normalcy, he’s amplifying fringe elements that repulse everyday voters. This disconnect only fuels the MAGA surge – Americans crave leaders who prioritise real issues like border security and economic freedom over contrived cultural gestures.

The backlash on X was swift and savage, with users calling out the pandering and fakery.

Reminder: Kwanzaa is a fake, subversive, degenerate “holiday” invented by a communist, pervert, and convicted criminal, Ronald McKinley Everett aka Maulana Ndabezitha Karenga.

In other words, it’s the perfect “holiday” for the American Left. https://t.co/P4bRze239Y

— William Wolfe ?? (@WilliamWolfe) December 26, 2025

A man who went to prison for kidnapping and assaulting women with extension cords made up your fake and gay holiday in the 60s.

— The Redheaded libertarian (@TRHLofficial) December 27, 2025

You shot your happy Kwanzaa video right after the Christmas take? ? Is anything genuine with you?https://t.co/NottKrM5OP

— Freedom 2 Fart (@Freedom2Fart) December 27, 2025

Aw, c’mon, the wife change out of the ‘colorful’ clothes.

Do they seem genuine to you? Or do they seem like the trope of the politician who lies professionally to get power?

— Peter de Vietien (@peterdevietien) December 27, 2025

Tell me…what’s your favorite Kwanzaa memory Gav? ?

— Kristen Mag (@kristenmag) December 27, 2025

Name the 7 principles without looking it up

— Casey Flores (@caseyjflores) December 27, 2025

Stuff like this is why Gavin Newsom will never be President.

— Jeremy Carl (@realJeremyCarl) December 27, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 16:20

JPMorgan Freezes Accounts Of Two Stablecoin Startups Over Sanctions Concerns: Report

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

JPMorgan Chase has reportedly frozen bank accounts linked to two venture-backed stablecoin startups after identifying exposure to sanctioned and high-risk jurisdictions.

The accounts belonged to BlindPay and Kontigo, two stablecoin startups backed by Y Combinator that primarily operate across Latin America, according to a report by The Information. Both companies accessed JPMorgan’s banking services through Checkbook, a digital payments firm that partners with large financial institutions.

Per the report, the freezes occurred after JPMorgan flagged business activity tied to Venezuela and other locations subject to US sanctions.

A spokesperson for JPMorgan reportedly said the decision was not driven by opposition to stablecoins themselves.

“This has nothing to do with stablecoin companies,” the spokesperson told The Information.

“We bank both stablecoin issuers and stablecoin-related businesses, and we recently took a stablecoin issuer public,” the spokesperson added.

Chargeback surge triggers JPMorgan account closures

Checkbook CEO PJ Gupta reportedly told The Information that BlindPay and Kontigo were among several firms linked to a surge in chargebacks that prompted the bank to close accounts.

According to Gupta, the spike was driven by rapid customer onboarding.

“They opened the floodgates and a bunch of people came in over the internet,” he said.

The account freezes come as JPMorgan and Checkbook deepen their partnership. In November 2024, the two companies announced that Checkbook would join the J.P. Morgan Payments Partner Network, enabling corporate clients to send digital checks. Checkbook also expanded its B2B payment offerings earlier in 2024, targeting sectors such as legal services, government and banking.

As Cointelegraph reported, cryptocurrencies are becoming a core part of the economy in Venezuela as citizens turn to digital assets to shield themselves from a collapsing currency and tighter government controls.

Cointelegraph reached out to JPMorgan for comment, but had not received a response by publication.

Winklevoss accuses JPMorgan of retaliating against Gemini over criticism

In July, Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss claimed JPMorgan Chase paused the crypto exchange’s re-onboarding process in response to his public criticism of the bank’s new data access policy.

Winklevoss accused the bank of engaging in anti-competitive behavior that could damage fintech and crypto firms.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan is weighing plans to offer crypto trading, including spot and derivatives products, to its institutional clients as interest grows amid a more favorable US regulatory environment.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 15:10

Chevrolet's Pro-Family Christmas Ad Reinforces Death Of Woke Marketing

Chevrolet's new pro-family, long-form Christmas advertisement clearly reinforces that the Overton Window has shifted back toward what made America - and much of the Western world - strong in the first place: the family unit.

Credit goes to the executives at the US automaker for avoiding the kind of self-inflicted "Bud Light" moment that comes with pushing woke propaganda in the era of 'America First.' Fresh in many minds is how Jaguar ruined its brand by embracing tasteless, toxic identity politics.

"Chevrolet has outdone themselves once again with their new profoundly emotional, pro-family Christmas commercial. Chills from beginning to end. This is what it's all about. Be ready to cry," Benny Johnson wrote on X.

Chevrolet has outdone themselves once again with their new profoundly emotional, pro-family Christmas commercial.

Chills from beginning to end.

This is what it’s all about. Be ready to cry. pic.twitter.com/SMF7mNpVrU

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 28, 2025

"The message is simple. No, raising children is never easy. It's loud. It's messy. It's expensive. It can be frustrating. But in the end, we wouldn't have it any other way. Children are life's greatest gift. Treasure every moment!" another X user said.

The message is simple.

No, raising children is never easy.

It's loud.
It's messy.
It's expensive.
It can be frustrating.

But in the end, we wouldn't have it any other way.

Children are life's greatest gift.

Treasure every moment!

— Kevin | Large Fam Dad (@LargeFamDad) November 28, 2025

The Democratic Party's nation-killing woke agenda has run its course and is no longer marketable. You might have noticed this holiday week that more and more people are continuing to break out of the left-wing censorship matrix and are saying "Merry Christmas" more than ever.

Nature is healing. Family is everything. Those seeking to undermine America from within, including left-wing dark-money funded nonprofits and the Democratic Party, are intent on destroying the family unit. At the same time, there are signs of a Christian revival as the nation reconnects with its roots.

Late last year, Volvo produced a pro-family ad by Hoyte van Hoytema, the cinematographer of Interstellar and Oppenheimer, that sent chills from beginning to end.

Volvo posted a 3 min and 46 second ad on Instagram, shot by Hoyte Van Hoytema, the cinematographer of Interstellar and Oppenheimer.

It goes against every single rule you can think about as a social lead. Length. Format. Over-produced.

Every comment under the ad said it… pic.twitter.com/wkmghuP4ye

— Guillaume Huin (@HuinGuillaume) November 21, 2024

America needs more pro-family adverts.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 14:35

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High

• Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

• Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

• Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

• Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Junk Food Bans For SNAP Users In Some States Starting 2026: What To Know

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times,

Americans using Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits to purchase groceries may need to adjust their shopping habits in 2026 as some states will prohibit the use of SNAP funds to purchase certain “junk foods.”

Also starting next year, states will have to shoulder a larger portion of the cost of running the program. In addition, states could lose funds if their payment error rate is too high.

Here is what to know about the overhaul of America’s largest nutrition program.

Restrictions on Purchases in Some States

Eighteen states will restrict the purchase of certain foods lacking in nutritional value next year. The changes are being made under the banner of the Make America Healthy Again initiative launched by the Department of Health and Human Services. To institute the changes, the states had to submit and have approved a waiver of federal rules from the Department of Agriculture, which oversees the nutrition program.

The starting dates for the restrictions and the foods prohibited vary by state.

Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Utah, and West Virginia will implement purchase restrictions on Jan. 1, 2026. Idaho, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Colorado, Texas, Virginia, and Florida have starting dates from February to April. Arkansas, Tennessee, Hawaii, South Carolina, North Dakota, and Missouri will begin their bans between July and October.

Most of these states have removed candy, soda, and energy drinks from the list of SNAP-eligible items.

In Tennessee and Iowa, SNAP beneficiaries cannot use the funds to purchase processed foods. Tennessee defines a processed food as one that has been changed in any way from its natural state.

Prepared desserts, such as cakes and cookies, are restricted in Florida and Missouri.

In Iowa, foods that are prepared for consumption or come with eating utensils may not be purchased with SNAP funds. Cold, unpackaged foods without utensils, such as bread, fruit, or canned goods, are still permitted.

See the accompanying map to find specific start dates and any applicable restrictions for each state.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said these are “bold” and “historic” steps to reverse the chronic diseases epidemic in the United States.

“We are restoring SNAP to its true purpose—nutrition,” Rollins said in a written statement.

“With these new waivers, we are empowering states to lead, protecting our children from the dangers of highly-processed foods, and moving one step closer to the President’s promise to make America Healthy Again.”

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said, “We cannot continue a system that forces taxpayers to fund programs that make people sick and then pay a second time to treat the illnesses those very programs help create.”

These restrictions mark the first time in the program’s history that the Department of Agriculture has granted SNAP waivers.

From the early 2000s through 2024, the department consistently denied state requests to restrict specific food items under SNAP.

In 2007, the USDA issued a paper explaining its reasons for denying such waivers, arguing that “no clear standards exist for defining foods as good or bad, or healthy or not healthy.”

The first-ever approval came on May 19, when Rollins signed Nebraska’s waiver request, followed quickly by approvals for Indiana and Iowa on May 22, 2025. Since then, 15 additional states have received waivers.

Administrative Cost Sharing, Error Rates

State governments will see changes in the SNAP program next year, also.

Beginning in October 2026, states will be responsible for 75 percent of SNAP administrative costs. Currently, the states pay half the cost of operating their SNAP programs, and the federal government pays the other half.

In fiscal year 2024, total state and federal administrative costs reached $6.6 billion.

The federal government will continue to fund 100 percent of SNAP benefits, which totaled about $100 billion in 2024.

Starting in 2027, states will be financially penalized for the first time in program history for having an excessive payment error rate.

States with payment error rates higher than 6 percent during fiscal year 2026 will be required to pay between 5 percent and 15 percent of the benefits distributed, starting in October 2027.

This would apply to 40 states and the District of Columbia, based on fiscal year 2024 error rates.

Previously, errors under $56 per household were ignored. However, starting in fiscal year 2026, which began on Oct. 1, every dollar in error counts toward the state’s penalty rate.

Some SNAP changes rising from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are already in effect.

Some Changes Already in Effect

Starting in October, the maximum allotment for a family of four in the continental United States rose to $994, up from $975.

The shelter deduction, which reduces countable income when determining SNAP eligibility, also increased, to $744 from $712.

Community engagement requirements have also changed. People aged 18 through 64 without dependents are required to work, volunteer, or receive job training for at least 80 hours per month to continue receiving benefits for more than three months in any 36-month period. The previous upper age limit was 54.

Also, refugees, asylees, parolees, and those with suspended deportation orders will generally become ineligible for SNAP benefits. That provision was scheduled to take effect in November, but a federal judge in Oregon ordered that the deadline be delayed to April 9, 2026.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 14:00

Jimmy Kimmel Blasts Trump From UK, Where Free Speech No Longer Exists

On Christmas Day, Jimmy Kimmel delivered a four-minute “Alternative Christmas Message” on the United Kingdom’s Channel 4, during which he positioned himself as a beacon against authoritarianism while warning British viewers that "tyranny is booming" in the United States. 

Kimmel’s rant, which aired less than two hours after King Charles III's traditional, non-partisan Christmas speech, portrayed America's current political climate as a cautionary tale for democratic nations everywhere.

“I do know what's going on over here, though, and I can tell you that, from a fascism perspective, this has been a really great year,” Kimmel told the UK audience. “Tyranny is booming over here. You may have read in your colorful newspapers, my country's president would like to shut me up because I don't adore him in the way he likes to be adored.”

Kimmel continued, "The American government made a threat against me and the company I work for, and all of a sudden, we were off the air."

Jimmy Kimmel went on UK TV to whine about Trump and 'fascism' in America:

"From a fascism perspective, this has been a really great year. Tyranny is booming over here."

This clown is talking to a country where the government is IMPRISONING PEOPLE FOR SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

He of… pic.twitter.com/HNoedyw5kW

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) December 26, 2025

That isn’t what happened. 

ABC pulled Jimmy Kimmel Live! in September after Kimmel falsely claimed that Tyler Robinson, the man who allegedly assassinated Charlie Kirk, was a MAGA supporter. 

“We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it,” Kimmel claimed.

Friends and family described Robinson as a radicalized leftist, and he also had a transgender roommate who is reportedly also his lover. 

“I had enough of his hatred,” Robinson told his lover in a text message. “Some hate can’t be negotiated out.”

Outrage over Kimmel’s remarks was significant, and local affiliates preempted the show amid backlash from conservative activists, advertisers, and station owners. His suspension had nothing to do with pressure from Trump or the federal government.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr debunked Kimmel's narrative directly. "Local TV stations said, 'I don't want to run this Kimmel stuff, and we're going to preempt it,'" Carr explained. "And that's a really important moment of local TV stations standing up for their viewers and pushing back against Comcast and Disney."

Kimmel referred to his reinstatement as a "September miracle," crediting the decision to "millions and millions of people" who objected to the suspension. "Because so many people spoke out, we came back," he said. He even presented his return to television as a personal and institutional victory over Trump’s efforts to muzzle criticism.

“And because so many people spoke out, we came back. Our show came back stronger than ever,” he claimed.

Stronger than ever? While he had an undeniable boost in ratings upon his return, his post-suspension ratings declined by 74% in mere days. Kimmel did recently sign a contract extension, but it was for one year, instead of the usual multi-year contract—a sign that ABC is merely postponing his inevitable cancellation and is merely hoping to minimize the fallout of doing so.

Despite this, Kimmel portrayed himself as the victor of a nonexistent battle with the government. “We won, the President lost, and now I'm back on the air every night giving the most powerful politician on Earth a right and richly deserved bollocking.”

Kimmel warned British viewers not to assume that government efforts to silence critics only happen in distant authoritarian states. "And the reason I'm telling you this story is because maybe you're thinking: 'Oh, a government silencing its critics is something that happens in places like Russia, or North Korea, or LA, not the UK,'" he said. "Well, that's what we've got King Donny the Eighth calling for executions. It happens fast."

The irony was thick. While Kimmel portrayed the United States as an authoritarian country and the UK as a beacon of freedom, it’s actually the UK that has pursued aggressive speech restrictions that would shock most Americans. 

British authorities have arrested citizens for social media posts and even personal text messages. Roughly 30 people are arrested daily in the UK for posting “offensive” things online. Kimmel lectured about the dangers of government censorship to one of the West's most aggressive enforcers of speech codes, with police regularly investigating and prosecuting individuals for online commentary deemed offensive or threatening.

Kimmel's Christmas message painted a picture of American authoritarianism that exists primarily in his imagination. He transformed a corporate decision driven by advertiser pressure and affiliate rebellion into a grand narrative about government persecution, all while ignoring the actual threats to free expression happening in the UK.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 13:25

Politico Claims That The 'Far-Right' Has "Stolen" Christmas By Daring To Call It Christian

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A Christmas Eve screed from Politico has ignited online mockery, with the outlet claiming ‘far-right’ leaders are weaponizing the holiday by emphasizing its Christian origins amid secular pressures and immigration debates.

The article spotlights Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and others for framing Christmas as a “marker of Christian civilization” being under threat. It accuses far-right parties in Italy, France, Spain, and Germany of repurposing seasonal cheer into a culture war tool, positioning themselves against a “hostile, secular left.”

Roberts highlights Meloni’s defense of traditions, quoting her past remarks: “How can my culture offend you?” in reference to nativity scenes in public spaces. The piece notes Brothers of Italy’s lavish Christmas festival, complete with Santa and ice-skating, as a “spectacle” to rally supporters.

Far-right parties are claiming the festive season as their own, recasting Christmas as a marker of Christian civilization that is under threat and positioning themselves as its last line of defense against a supposedly hostile, secular left. https://t.co/6QMMomhHHX

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) December 24, 2025

So called ‘experts’ like University of Surrey professor Daniele Albertazzi are cited, explaining how post-2010 Islamic terror attacks shifted the radical right to embrace “cultural Christianity” as an identity marker against perceived threats.

The piece notes how in Germany, the AfD warns of Christmas markets losing their “German character,” while in Italy, right-wing figures attack schools for scrubbing religious references from songs. Brothers of Italy MP Marta Schifone is quoted: “For us, traditions represent our roots, who we are, who we have been, and the history that made us what we are today. Those roots must be celebrated and absolutely defended.”

Politico claims those on the right are not really religious, but use Christianity as “civilizational shorthand” to draw boundaries, framing it as manipulative, while glossing over leftist efforts to neuter Christmas with “holiday season” jargon for “inclusivity.”

Online, the backlash was swift and savage, with users dismantling the premise that acknowledging Christmas’s Christian roots is some radical act.

The “far right” now claims that Christmas is Christian! https://t.co/MwzZjUBLU2

— Michael Knowles (@michaeljknowles) December 24, 2025

Yes, we wouldn’t want to confuse Christmas as being Christian. What a crazy thought.

Thanks Politico. https://t.co/tPZVWiX2N2

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) December 24, 2025

BREAKING: Europeans are shocked to learn Christmas is a Christian celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ. https://t.co/xqWjC2hzRo

— @amuse (@amuse) December 24, 2025

"Those dang Christians claiming the celebration of their Savior's birth as their own."
You might want to ask yourself why you're being ratioed.

— Ellie A (@EllieGAnders) December 24, 2025

The same people who mocked the idea of a war on Christmas are now claiming that treating it as a Christian holiday makes you a far right radical https://t.co/lHeLwTT94Q

— Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) December 24, 2025

We don’t hate the media enough.

Media have framed the following as far right: Working out, Christmas, having a big family, believing men can’t be women, traditional relationships, eating meat, opposing illegal immigration & more.

So normal = far right? Guess I’m far right.

And… pic.twitter.com/1YMQhBm62G

— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) December 24, 2025

This Politico flop underscores how legacy media twists normalcy into extremism to push leftist propaganda, diluting national identities under the guise of tolerance.

As Europe grapples with mass migration and cultural erosion, defending Christmas isn’t “far-right”—it’s common sense resistance to woke overreach.

In the end, attempts to secularize or shame Christian heritage only fuel the pushback.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 12:50

 

 

This week, I speak with Jay Leno at the Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week. They discuss the future of late night comedy after The Late Show with Stephen Colbert was canceled. They also discuss Jay’s classic car collection, watches, and his approach to wealth.

A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Stephanie Drescher, Apollo’s Chief Client and Product Development Officer. She oversees everything from the global wealth business to portfolio management, product development, and client marketing. She is a member of the firm’s leadership team. Since 2020, Barron’s has named her annually to its list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance.

 

 

 

The post MiB: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week appeared first on The Big Picture.

Rearmament Without Strategy: Why Europe Risks Another Bleak Year In 2026

Via Middle East Eye

Addressing his party on 14 December, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made headlines with remarks unprecedented in postwar Europe.

"Dear friends, the decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us in Europe, and for us in Germany as well. It no longer exists as we know it. And nostalgia won't change that. The Americans are now very, very ruthlessly pursuing their own interests. And this cannot have a different answer than that it is time that we also pursue our own interests. And dear friends, here we are not weak, we are not small."

Pax Americana, the US-led security order that has come to define American and European partnerships since the end of the Second World War, is now being openly questioned. Indeed, Merz has crossed a line that few European leaders have even contemplated since the Cold War - triggered by the shock generated by the new US National Security Strategy (NSS), issued earlier this month.

The document no longer even identifies Russia as a threat, describing it instead as a factor in the Trump administration's efforts to reach peace in Ukraine, an objective now presented as a strategic interest for Washington, alongside the stabilisation of relations with Moscow.

via AFP

To rub salt into the wound, the NSS states that "the perception and reality of Nato in constant expansion must stop". In a single sentence, nearly three decades of western narrative, which has brazenly denied any link between Nato's eastward expansion and the war in Ukraine, were quietly discarded by the alliance's leading power.

It is no surprise, then, that the NSS was received in Europe with consternation. But what is harder to justify is the sense of surprise. The document merely puts into writing what US President Donald Trump has been stating, with characteristic bluntness, for over a decade.

European elites were even forewarned last February, when Trump dispatched Vice President JD Vance to the Munich Security Conference to deliver an unequivocal message about what lay ahead.

Merz's remarks followed similar declarations from Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, who delivered an apocalyptic speech in Berlin, as well as from France's Chief of Defence Staff General Fabien Mandon and Nato Military Committee chair Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone. In an interview with the Financial Times, Cavo Dragone went so far as to advocate pre-emptive or preventive hybrid attacks against Russia.

It is difficult to avoid the impression that this chorus of fearmongering is intended to build public support for the EU's recently announced 800 billion euro ($942bn) rearmament plan, ostensibly designed to fill the vacuum left by a US administration increasingly determined to disengage, while confronting a heavily exaggerated Russian threat.

Rearmament without strategy

This narrative becomes even more disturbing when viewed against the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has come under accusations of ideological links to Nazism, at a time when Germany is being urged to rearm on a massive scale. Yet this contradiction appears lost on Europe's liberal elites, who remain fixated on the supposed threat posed by "Russian autocracy".

Merz has made clear what this means in practice. If Germany fails to expand its military rapidly enough, compulsory military service may become "inevitable". Similar sentiments are now being echoed by ruling elites in the UK, France, Italy, Poland and across the Nordic and Baltic states.

The premise underlying these calls, however, is highly questionable. The claim that Germany, or Europe more broadly, faces an imminent military threat from Russia is deeply contested. Moscow appears to lack both the resources and the capability to invade Nato countries. After nearly four years of war, it has not even succeeded in occupying all of Ukraine.

Likewise, Germany and a number of other European states lack the capacity to reintroduce conscription at scale or to rapidly convert their industrial base to a war economy. Its volunteer forces are shrinking and ageing, recruitment targets are consistently missed and training systems remain sluggish.

Germany's industrial base has been hollowed out, while its automotive sector is struggling under pressure from Chinese competition. Ultimately, its poorly concealed ambition to maintain its industrial edge by pivoting towards weapons manufacturing is easy to proclaim, but far more difficult to realise. Similar structural constraints affect much of Europe. The result is a surreal situation in which militarization is presented as a substitute for diplomacy, as if conscription could fill the political vacuum created by the near-total abandonment of serious diplomatic engagement across the continent.

Some describe this moment as a Zeitenwende, a historic turning point framed as Europe finally assuming "responsibility" for its own security. In reality, it represents little more than burden-shifting within the Atlantic alliance, which it could have potentially withstood were it not for the fact that the main escalatory power remains firmly across the Atlantic. At the same time, Europe is now expected to provide the workforce, social discipline and political compliance.

Strategy, therefore, continues to be conceived and remotely controlled by Washington, while Europe bears all the risks and consequences.

Europe's hollow power

If Merz and his EU counterparts believe that massive rearmament offers an escape from the cul-de-sac they have created, they are deluding themselves. Since 2022, European leaders have undermined their own energy security, lost competitiveness, hollowed out industrial capacity and embraced deindustrialization as a virtue - all in the name of a war they are unlikely to win, not least because it is being fought through a strategy they do not control.

In regular times, this would induce political vertigo. Instead, the German chancellor has the audacity to insist that his country is neither weak nor small.

Across Europe, factories are closing, energy prices are skyrocketing and supply chains are migrating. Yet EU decision-makers persist in a state of cognitive dissonance, functioning on autopilot. There appears to be no vision. Diplomacy has vanished. No credible new security architecture for the continent is even discussed. Instead, everything is filtered through a single matrix known as Russophobia, a sentiment masquerading as strategy.

And then there is the mother of all paradoxes. The EU claims to defend freedom while openly discussing and approving coercive laws that restrict freedom of thought and expression at home.

Can it seriously be argued that French President Emmanuel Macron respected the will of voters in the most recent elections? Or that the events surrounding Romania's recent electoral process were remotely normal? How is it possible that EU institutions can increasingly sanction individuals without due legal process, simply for holding dissenting views?

Militarization is now chosen over common sense and realism. Fear is obsessively instilled into public opinions and unconvincing narratives are replacing strategic thinking.  

Rather than reconsidering this self-destructive trajectory, Merz, together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and much of the EU leadership, has doubled down. They attempted to confiscate frozen Russian assets held in European banks to finance the war in Ukraine, ignoring warnings from the European Central Bank and discreet alerts from ratings agencies about the risks to Europe's financial credibility.

After the political folly of seeking Russia's "strategic defeat", the economic damage inflicted by sanctions and the abandonment of Russian gas, Europe nearly added financial self-sabotage to the list.

Strategic self-harm

Will European leaders ever learn a lesson?

Fortunately, their plan failed miserably. Last week, the European Council declined to approve the measure. Belgium, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Italy and even France raised objections. Instead, the EU opted to burden its already strained taxpayers with a new 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine.

When historians look back on this period, they may be surprised to conclude that it was a relatively obscure Belgian prime minister, Bart De Wever, derided by much of the mainstream press, who played a decisive role in saving Europe's financial credibility.

Looking ahead to 2026, there is little evidence that Europe's leaders are prepared to abandon their mistaken course. There is, however, a faint glimmer of change. Macron has signalled a renewed willingness to engage in dialogue with Russia. It is an encouraging albeit insufficient step.

Any genuine shift would require two fundamental principles to be upheld: the first is the indivisibility of security, the idea that one state's security cannot be pursued at the expense of others in the same region.

Eastern European states, including Ukraine, cannot plausibly insist that their security depends solely on Nato membership if Russia perceives that outcome as an existential threat. Security arrangements must take into account all parties' perceptions, rather than privileging some at the expense of others.

The second is recognition of the security dilemma, a core concept in international relations theory. When one state enhances its military capabilities, others may perceive this as threatening, regardless of intent.

Applied to Europe today, the question is obvious: why should Russia view the EU's 800 billion euro rearmament program as purely defensive when EU member states already spend more than four times as much as Russia on military procurement?

Without integrating these principles into European strategic thinking, particularly in negotiations over Ukraine, 2026 risks becoming yet another bleak year for peace on the continent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/27/2025 - 10:30

The post Washington Post’s Trumpian Ideology Boils Over appeared first on CEPR.

Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2026.

The key economic report this week is the Case-Shiller House Price Index.

----- Monday, December 29th -----
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for December.

----- Tuesday, December 30th -----
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for October. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. 

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for an 1.1% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for October.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of December 9-10

----- Wednesday, December 31st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. 

----- Thursday, January 1st -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday

----- Friday, January 2nd -----
No major economic releases scheduled.