My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• War Leaves Economy With More Stubborn Inflation, In latest Journal survey, economists have lowered the probability of recession but see inflation staying higher longer. The Iran conflict is embedding higher costs into the economy in ways that won’t reverse when the fighting stops. Economists are raising their inflation forecasts for 2027 and beyond. (Wall Street Journal)

• Oh, the Stories the Dow Can Tell. Lessons From the Index’s Past 50 Years. Only two names from the Dow Jones Industrial Average of July 1976 remain today. Many of today’s tech Blue Chips didn’t even exist then. (Barron’s)

• All you never wanted to know about corporate bond market issuance: How the debt capital markets sausage gets made. FT Alphaville’s deep dive into the plumbing of corporate bond markets—the mechanics, the distortions, and the risks hiding in plain sight. (FT)

• The Economics of Friendship: Why does loneliness seem to be on the rise? In part because we’ve made life frictionless and efficient. The Wall Street Journal opinion page goes long on something economists rarely study — the measurable economic value of having close friends. Social capital isn’t a metaphor; it shows up in earnings, health outcomes, and longevity data. (Wall Street Journal)

• Publishers Are Preparing to Opt Out of Google Search: After years of giving away content for free traffic, major publishers are seriously considering pulling the plug on Google indexing entirely. The economics of search have finally broken. (Adweek)

• The first American autonomous ground vehicles are fighting in Ukraine: Forterra, a U.S. builder of autonomous vehicles, revealed today that more than 100 of its self-driving ATVs have been deployed in conflict zones in Ukraine for the past nine months, in what the company believes is the largest deployment of autonomous ground vehicles in combat by any U.S. defense tech company. (Techcrunch) see also Ukraine’s Killer Robots Show How War Is Changing: Autonomous weapons are no longer theoretical. Ukraine’s battlefield is the live proving ground for AI-driven combat systems that will define the next generation of warfare. (The Conversation)

• China, Russia and Others Seek to Inflame Debate Over A.I. Data Centers: State actors in China, Russia and Iran have sought to exploit the U.S. public debate over the effects of the technology.  We have seen bad overseas actors use social media to influence elections, debate of Israel, Ukraine, and now AI. America needs to wake up and recognize this credible security threat to our sovereignty and democracy. Foreign adversaries are exploiting local opposition to AI data center construction — amplifying environmental and energy concerns to slow down America’s AI infrastructure buildout. (New York Times)

• How Physicists Track and Trap the Elusive Neutrino: The hunt for these ghostly particles has required some of the most audacious experimental setups ever built. In the 1960s, Raymond Davis Jr. and colleagues at Brookhaven National Laboratory placed a tank 1.5 kilometers underground in the Homestake mine in South Dakota and filled it with nearly 400,000 liters of a chlorine-based cleaning fluid called perchloroethylene. On the rare occasion that a passing neutrino struck a chlorine nucleus, it would be transformed into a radioactive form of argon that could be detected and counted. The experiment, which would run for 25 years, found just one-third the number of neutrinos coming from the sun that had been predicted in theoretical models. (Quanta Magazine)

• The U.S. men played ‘scared.’ Fox’s Carli Lloyd was fearless in her candor.: The USMNT’s World Cup performance was underwhelming: “I felt like they lost the game before they even stepped out on the pitch,” said Lloyd, the Fox Sports analyst on the post-match show. “And I’m not sure why, and I don’t know the reasons. But just from the beginning: chasing. Tentative. Scared. Just not confident on the ball.”   (The Athletic)

• Robert De Niro Only Wants to Shoot in New York: The actor and his partners recently opened Wildflower Studios, a 775,000-square-foot production facility in Queens. The NYT real estate section catches up with De Niro’s long love affair with the city and his insistence on keeping production local. A profile that’s half cinema, half urbanism. (New York Times)

Video of the day: How America Turned The Dollar Into A Weapon

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty. We discuss how he transformed the family boat insurance business into a “sexy” driver-forward business. We also discuss our love of collectable cars and his love of his first car, a Porsche, that he bought at the age of 13.

 

America’s missing middle: The shrinking 45-64 population

Source: Axios

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Nuclear Fuel Leader Centrus 'At A Discount' As Structural Uranium Enrichment Deficit Looms; Needham

Needham analyst Carter Goman published a report on Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU), reaffirming a Buy rating while cutting the price target to $264 from $314. 

Recently trading around $171, the shares have lagged the broader markets year-to-date, presenting what Goman views as an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to the domestic enrichment leader.

Goman attributes the underperformance primarily to a “focus on capital expenditures for the planned Piketon capacity and normalized economics relative to established enrichment competitors Urenco and Orano, in addition to skepticism around timelines for new nuclear
build”. 

He leaves the core financial estimates largely unchanged but adjusts the target to reflect a mark-to-market on the cost of capital for the first-of-a-kind (FOAK) Piketon project.

The bullish investment thesis is underscored by Centrus' strategic positioning. As the only US-domiciled enricher, and the sole Western producer with demonstrated high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) capability, Centrus is poised to anchor the rebuilding of America's nuclear fuel cycle. 

Russian supply is phasing out under the 2024 Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, LEU markets are tightening, and HALEU demand from small modular and advanced reactors is set to ramp. With a credible path to at least 3.5 million separative work units (SWU) of capacity, the company is transitioning from a trading-exposed LEU broker into a vertically integrated, high-margin strategic asset.

Goman emphasizes a $3.9 billion backlog as of 1Q26, extending out to 2040 and offering long-dated visibility. The LEU segment accounts for the bulk ($3.1 billion), including $2.4 billion in previously contingent commercial commitments from South Korea tied to future Piketon production that are now 100% under definitive agreements. 

The Technical Solutions segment backlog contributes another $800 million. 

Federal support provides a critical foundation. Earlier this year, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced a $900 million task order to American Centrifuge Operating (a Centrus wholly-owned subsidiary) under the HALEU Production Contract. The company finally signed the contract earlier this month, with the award value surpassing $1 billion.

Goman notes that Centrus likely has access to “access to multiple potential sources of no / low-cost capital”, including possible National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) involvement, foreign direct investment, and third-party funding.

On the cost side, FOAK economics at Piketon will inevitably exceed Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) benchmarks at mature foreign facilities. However, Goman points out initiatives like the Palantir partnership announced in 1Q26 have already identified approximately $300 million in potential savings through AI-driven optimization of project controls, manufacturing, and supply chain.

Goman's report also provides some context for the global enrichment market. Global SWU demand hovers around 54 million annually, with supply highly concentrated among a handful of state-influenced players: 

• TENEX (Russia) 43% share
• Urenco (Germany, UK, Netherlands) 29%
• Orano (France) 12%
• CNEIC (China) 15%

In the US, annual consumption is roughly 15 million SWU, but domestic production has been limited with only 4.3 million SWU from Urenco's New Mexico plant. The remainder relied on imports, with Russia previously supplying a sizable chunk before the import ban.

Goman outlines a structural deficit emerging as Russian volumes exit and demand grows. The Nuclear Energy Institute has flagged ~8.1 GW of potential incremental generation from uprates, restarts, and extensions. Government-backed plans for 10 new Westinghouse reactors could add substantial initial and ongoing SWU needs.

When combined with the Russian ban, this creates a meaningful "call" on domestic capacity exceeding 6.5 million SWU annually before advanced reactor and national-security demand. Spot SWU prices have surged above $200, reflecting limited uncommitted global supply and long lead times (5-10 years) for new capacity. Goman expects pricing to remain structurally elevated, supporting both legacy trading margins and future enrichment returns.

Urenco is expanding its U.S. footprint (targeting over 7 million SWU eventually), and Orano has their NRC review underway for a new facility. Centrus' AC100 centrifuge technology, NRC license through 2037, and existing Piketon site advantages provide a meaningful moat, especially for national-security applications where US-origin tech is mandated. HALEU represents additional upside as the majority of the reactors under the various DOE programs require it.

Goman's valuation framework assumes: 

• 3.5 million SWU initial facility (with ~25% HALEU mix over time)
• ~$7 billion cumulative CapEx
• $250/SWU long-term pricing
• 50% enrichment margins
• 10% discount rate
• 15x terminal multiple on FY35 EBITDA

Upside could come from accelerated federal support, manufacturing efficiencies at the Oak Ridge center, higher SWU prices, or faster HALEU commercialization. Downside risks include FOAK execution/cost overruns, funding delays, TENEX supply volatility through 2027, and potential equity dilution.
 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 05:45

Britain Bets On Hydropower To Boost Energy Security

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Britain has provisionally approved three major pumped storage hydropower projects in Scotland, the first of their kind in more than 40 years.

• Pumped storage facilities will act as large-scale energy storage systems, helping balance intermittent wind and solar generation.

• The projects are expected to improve energy security, reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and support the U.K.'s decarbonisation strategy.

After years of neglect, the United Kingdom has big plans for hydropower as part of broader plans for a green transition. The government is supporting the development of three large-scale hydro-storage projects as part of its plans to diversify the U.K. energy mix, support a green transition, and boost energy security.

Hydropower is one of the oldest and largest sources of renewable energy. It works by converting the energy of running water into electricity. Many hydropower projects rely on reservoirs created by dams to store large quantities of water and produce electricity as needed. Meanwhile, hydropower plants without reservoirs are typically called run-of-river power plants. In these types of facilities, production is controlled by the amount of water flowing past at any given time. Just four countries – China, Brazil, Canada, and the United States – produce roughly half of the world’s hydroelectricity.

The U.K. has been producing electricity from hydropower projects since the 1800s, and the energy source now contributes around 2 per cent of the country’s electricity generation. Two-thirds of hydropower-generated electricity is produced during the winter months. There are almost 1,700 hydropower schemes across the U.K. with an installed capacity of around 2 GW.

As part of plans for a green transition, the U.K. is expected to invest heavily in hydropower in the coming years. In October 2024, the U.K. government announced a new policy to promote investment in Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) as part of the country’s decarbonisation plans.

The global demand for energy storage has risen dramatically in recent years, as many countries shift to less stable renewable energy sources to produce low-carbon power. LDES, also known as pumped hydropower storage (PHS), is a type of hydroelectric energy storage. It works by using two reservoirs at different heights to generate power by moving water from one to the other (discharging) as it passes through a turbine. The water can also be pumped back up to the higher reservoir (recharging) during off-peak electricity hours for reuse during peak demand. The system effectively functions as a massive battery, storing power for release as required.

The U.K. government aims to diversify the country’s energy mix to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and help strengthen energy security. Having invested heavily in intermittent clean energy sources, such as wind and solar power generation, it is looking to other energy sources, including hydro and geothermal power, to fill the gap.

There are currently four PSH schemes in the U.K., all of which were funded publicly from the 1960s to the 1980s to store overnight nuclear generation. By 2025, 11 PSH were under development across the U.K., with an expected combined power storage capacity of more than 10 GW and 200 GWh, or 25 per cent of the country’s power demand, once completed. A study from Imperial College London suggests that just 4.5 GW of new PHS with 90 GWh of storage could save up to £690 million a year in energy system costs by 2050. 

Last month, the U.K. energy regulator provisionally greenlit the first major new hydropower projects in over four decades, as part of plans to reduce the U.K.’s dependence on energy imports, in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and severe disruptions to energy supply chains. Three new PHS power stations will be developed in Northern Scotland, using the region’s famous lochs to supply hydropower, pending final approval.

Statera Energy’s Loch Kemp project will use water from Loch Ness, while SSE’s Coire Glas project will rely on water from Loch Lochy, which is situated between Fort William and Inverness. Meanwhile, Gilkes Energy’s Earba project, expected to be the U.K.’s largest pumped storage hydro facility, will pump water from both Loch Leamhain and Loch Earba.

The three projects are expected to be completed by the early 2030s and will be the first PHS power projects since the Dinorwig hydropower plant was completed in north Wales in 1984. Dinorwig, also known colloquially as the “electric mountain”, can generate enough electricity to power nearly 2 million homes in a matter of seconds.

The U.K. Energy Minister, Michael Shanks, stated, “Forty years after the country’s last pumped storage facility, this government is getting Britain building again. The lesson from the conflict in Iran is clear: Britain cannot afford to remain at the mercy of volatile fossil fuel markets and leave families exposed to the next price shock.”

The new hydropower projects are expected to enhance the reliability of Britain’s renewable energy and help the country reduce dependence on fossil fuels once and for all. They will help reduce reliance on energy imports, support the government’s goals for a green transition, and enhance energy security through diversification. PHS projects also provide an alternative to lithium-ion battery storage, helping reduce imports of raw materials and batteries from China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 05:00

Ukraine Prime Minister's Shock Resignation Marks Start Of Broader Zelensky Cabinet Reshuffle

Ukrainian President Zelensky is undertaking a dramatic cabinet reshuffle, at a moment Kiev sees itself as having military momentum against Russia with its non-stop drone assaults on Russian energy sites.

The country's Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has confirmed Sunday her shock resignation, which has come as a major surprise to many lawmakers and unleashed speculation about what's behind it. She has held the office since July 2025, and helped spearhead major reconstruction funding deals with the United States and Europe.

US Treasury image

Svyrydenko announced on social media she was "proud to have had the honor of leading the government during one of the most difficult periods in Ukraine’s modern history."

She further described that she discussed "next steps" with Zelensky but without providing any details. "I remain ready to serve the Ukrainian state and carry out every task aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s position, defending our national interests and bringing a just peace closer," she said.

According to a backgrounder on Svyrydenko:

Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s former economy minister, was named prime minister in July 2025 at the age of 39 after playing a lead role in securing a mineral agreement between Ukraine and the U.S., seen as an important way of tying U.S. interests to Ukraine’s security.

...He also said he had offered Svyrydenko the opportunity to lead “a new, important area” in Ukraine’s relations with a key international partner.

One unnamed Ukrainian lawmaker conceded to national media that "It's a strange situation" given that "Cabinet resignations are generally a last resort."

The official continued, "They're usually something you would expect in the fall, when the political season begins, and people expect some political changes, since there are no elections."

"Maybe there are some extraordinary reasons for the reshuffle... It looks like a preemptive move," the person added, while expressing that lawmakers sees no obvious reason behind the prime minister's removal.

Zelensky in a statement suggested a broader government overhaul is underway. "Ukraine is changing its political strategy."

Refusing to have an election but has announced more shake ups than the election he has had.

— бенедикт//Benedikt (@BenediktSuarez) July 12, 2026

"The Cabinet of Ministers needs to be renewed," Zelensky said. "Each priority area of foreign policy will be assigned to a specific person with substantial experience who is capable of implementing what we agree on at the leaders’ level and what the Ukrainian people expect," he described further of an impending reshuffle. Who is next on the chopping block?

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 04:15

The Big Lie: France Urged To Embrace Robotics Over Immigration

Via Remix News,

French political figure Éric Zemmour is arguing that robotics represents the true economic future of France, offering a technological solution to labor shortages in factories and farms rather than relying on mass immigration.

“Robotics is the economic future of France. Robots will provide our factories and our farmers with the arms they are missing. France can choose technology rather than migratory submersion through work. For an eternal, powerful, and sovereign France in modernity: more robots, fewer immigrants,” wrote Zemmour on X.

Zemmour’s post directly references an interview conducted by French outlet Le Journal du Dimanche with Éric Marchiol, Renault’s director of industrial metaverse and quality.

In the interview, Marchiol detailed Renault’s development of Calvin, a new humanoid robot created in partnership with French company Wandercraft. Designed for industrial environments, Calvin is compact, capable of handling heavy loads of up to 40 kilograms (88 pounds), and adaptable to real factory conditions — such as navigating uneven packaging or small steps on assembly lines.

Renault already operates around 11,000 traditional industrial robots and 8,000 autonomous guided vehicles. The Calvin robot represents the next generation: more flexible, intelligent, and space-efficient than older fixed-arm systems. The company is testing it for repetitive, physically demanding tasks like tire handling on fast-moving production lines.

Marchiol emphasized that robotization is essential for competitiveness: “Without automation and without robotization, there is no more competitive industry.” He noted France currently has about 190 robots per 10,000 workers — significantly behind China at 380 and Germany.

The goal, he said, is to deploy these humanoid robots widely across Renault and its suppliers within the next four to five years, targeting difficult-to-fill, physically strenuous jobs.

Robots over mass immigration

As Remix News has extensively reported over the last years, automation, robotics, and now artificial intelligence are increasingly seen as the primary solution to labor shortages, and mass immigration may even hinder the development of these technologies. Western employers, instead of developing this groundbreaking technology to work in factories and agriculture, are often still relying on human labor promised to them by Western liberal leaders. Often, this human labor comes with enormous welfare and cultural assimilation costs.

Zemmour, like many others, is pointing to this automation drive as the real solution to labor shortages. He wrote that Renault’s initiative as proof that France can solve its industrial labor gaps through innovation instead of large-scale immigration.

Remix News has run a series entitled “the big immigration lie” detailing the shift in thinking on immigration, with the Asian countries serving as the main counter example to Europe’s present course of open borders. Instead of embracing cheap labor and millions of culturally alien immigrants, Asian countries like Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan have focused on their native populations and implementing harsh immigration restrictions.

These Asians countries now lead in many areas over Europe, including AI, robotics, renewable energies, electric cars, and automation technology in factories.

Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock and arguably one of the most powerful men on the planet, openly said last year that the countries with xenophobic immigration policies are going to have a higher standard of living, faster productivity growth, and will be better able to accommodate the social impact of artificial intelligence advances over the coming years.

“You know, we always used to think shrinking population is a cause for negative growth. But in my conversations with the leadership of these large developed countries that have xenophobic immigration policies, they don’t allow anybody to come in, shrinking unemployment, excuse me, shrinking demographics. These countries will rapidly develop robotics and AI and technology. And if the promise, I didn’t say it’s going to happen, but as a promise of all that transforms productivity, which most of us think it will, we’ll be able to elevate the standard of living of countries and the standard of living of individuals even with shrinking populations,” said Fink.

“And so the paradigm of negative population growth is going to be changing. And the social problems that one will have in substituting humans for machines is going to be far easier in those countries that have declining populations,” he said.

When Fink talks about xenophobic countries, he is talking about countries like South Korea, China, and Japan, where robotics and AI are being used to deal with the demographic situation instead of mass immigration. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 03:30

How Global Population Growth Is Slowing

According to UN calculations, the world's population will cross the 10-billion mark in 2061.

However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, by the end of the century, this number will have started to decline slightly, having reached a high around 10.3 billion in 2084. Leading up to this reversal, the growth of the global populace has actually been slowing down for decades, as seen in numbers by the UN Population Division. The organization celebrated World Population Day on Saturday.

You will find more infographics at Statista

While the above figures are according to the UN's medium scenario of moderate fertility, a case where global birth rates sink even more drastically would result in a reversal of population growth already around the early 2060s, at a high of just under 10 billion people on Earth.

This would result in a world population around 9 billion again by the end of the century.

Some academics believe that a global population decline at an even faster rate is possible. According to an widely cited article in medical journal The Lancet published in 2020, the world population is expected at 8.8 billion in 2100, comparable to the UN's low-fertility scenario. In case of rapid global development, the reseachers believe it could be as low as 6.3 billion by that time.

The number of people in the world exceeded 8 billion for the first time on November 15, 2022, according to UN calculations.

This was more than three times as many as in 1950. The rapid growth of the past was due to the gradual increase in life expectancy as a result of improvements in healthcare, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine. It was also the result of high and consistent birth rates in some countries, for example China and India.

At present, the country adding most people to the world population is still India, while African countries like the Central African Republic, Chad and Somalia have the highest birth rates.

By contrast, the list of countries with the fastest population decline is dominated by eastern and southeastern European states, which have to contend with high emigration figures due to the wage and development gap with western Europe as well as falling birth rates.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 02:45

NATO's Last Stand?

Authored by Matthew Andersson via AmericanThinker.com,

Critics may be misreading the recent NATO summit.  

It looks to them as if the U.S. is unilaterally siding with Europe against Russia.  

President Trump is smarter: he knows who has the winning hand, and his direct communications with his peers, Xi and Putin, are not always public. 

President Trump's earliest critical instincts toward the EU and NATO still hold. While the U.S. is currently extending them some diplomatic courtesy and limited support, Europe is ultimately surrounded on all sides by powers that make it irrelevant in global influence terms.  Europe has put itself into this predicament, due to its own domestic economic decline from bad policy choices.  It is using war as a way to revive its fortunes.  Its odds are long. 

The EU is surrounded economically by the U.S. to the west; by Russia and China to the east, by a vast Arctic territory to the north that it cannot control, and by India and a rising Middle East power, Israel, to the south. Europe has no strategic maneuvering room. It has limited prospects to reemerge as a serious power, and NATO is long past relevancy, and solvency.  

Since his first term, President Trump has been right about Russia, and NATO.  

Being “right” means understanding Russia’s long-term economic and trade importance, and appreciating its military prowess. Along with China and the U.S., it makes up the superpower triad. Being right also means he understands that the days are numbered for the EU and NATO, and that the world has changed without them.

After the Anchorage meeting with President Trump, President Putin invited his counterpart to Moscow: Trump's guarded reply was a reminder that productive relations may be welcome by both leaders, but each is also operating in and surrounded by a complex defense and foreign affairs tradition that doesn’t trust the other side.  Some have called this the “crucible of belief,” and past experience is hard to overcome. Change will happen slowly. 

Europe is part of that shared Eurasian landmass, and its security, but “Europe” is not a unified, single country.  Even within its own limited Western sphere, it has been a region constantly engaged in rivalry and war.  There was a period after Napoleon — roughly a hundred years — where relative peace was enjoyed.  But the 20th century has been just the opposite: a nearly unbroken chain of war — regional, revolutionary, world, and cold — and now, a new 21st century war is increasingly seen as inevitable.

There are many political, social, and institutional explanations, but economic decline is at the heart of why the EU is determined to provoke Russia (and why it is pleading before the U.S.).

If Germany, France and the U.K. were strongly led, however, with robust domestic industrial growth, controlled borders via immigration, and with less external energy dependence, if not facing domestic energy bankruptcy, such a conflict would not be necessary, or given any serious consideration. 

In recent history, one only has to review Angela Merkel’s disastrous “green energy” policy, deindustrialization, open borders, and the idling of German nuclear power, as a strong explanation.  She fell completely for naive progressive ideology which asserts that oil no longer matters.  

But for President Trump, the U.S. was going down the same path.

France and the U.K. are just as bad in their string of weak leaders, uncontrolled borders, domestic violence from cultures foreign to their own, and deindustrialization and outsourcing. It is little wonder that Europe’s “leaders” are now economically trapped, and are turning to war as a desperate form of economic recovery.

NATO’s putative head, Mark Rutte, was recently in the White House, pitching for war and U.S. financial backing, with slides and charts that looked more like a failed business recovery plan.  The old saying “be careful what you ask for” may be relevant, as NATO is functioning as a proxy for Western Europe, and looking to the U.S. as its pre-bankruptcy sponsor.  President Trump has seen this before.

There are obviously many other interests and players driving this strategy, but German-French-British decline may be the largest factor. Scandinavia is somewhat immune, especially Norway with its natural resources and capital, but it is susceptible to European political and policy contamination. 

Economic historian Walt Rostow, a White House national security advisor to U.S. presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson, provided a powerful economic model that goes a long way to partly explain why Eurasia, and Europe, have always been unstable and in conflict.  His “The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto,” maps how countries grow in relative stages of maturity.

But it also predicts how countries will turn to war when those stages are challenged, interrupted, or allowed through poor leadership, or state interference, to stagnate or backslide. Europe has slid backwards from an advanced industrial and colonial power, to an effective open border welfare state, led by a weak political class with no plans, ideas, commitment, or national loyalties.

Russia’s Kremlin has recently announced that its Special Military Operation in Ukraine has been converted to formal war.  While predicting its development is problematic, Russia's power advantage is so overwhelming that NATO can only been seen as engaging in effective suicide.  Given Europe’s cultural tendency to existentialist gloom, perhaps it is understandable.

When war finally stops, as it must, it usually results in new borders, relationships, alliances, and deals being formed.  NATO and Europe seem to be counting on the chaos of war as a path out of their own weakness.

The U.S. may lend some technical military support to them as a simple matter of arms sales, but this may be their own self-inflicted, poisoned chalice. 

And in the end, the U.S., Russia, and China will simply resume their global dominance and power alliance. The EU will likely collapse or shrink; NATO will finally be decommissioned, and the old Atlantic Alliance will bypass Europe and align economically with Eurasia’s east and south — because that is where the power is.  

That is what the stages of growth predict.

The EU is also going to be further eclipsed commercially and militarily and by a rising Israel-dominated Middle East, because they know what they want, they have a plan, and they know how to fight.  European bureaucrats like Rutte, Macron, Merz, and von der Leyen do not, and face an interesting fate when they finally realize that this battle is likely their last political stand.

The citizens of Europe may be relieved. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 02:00

Obamacare Premiums Likely To Rise In 2027, Analysts Say

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Affordable Care Act premiums rose sharply in 2026 and are likely to continue to do so in 2027, based on early rate change filings by some insurers.

A pedestrian walks past an insurance agency that offers Affordable Care Act plans, in Miami on Jan. 28, 2021. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Of the 77 insurers whose proposed rates are now publicly available, the median proposed premium increase is 14 percent, according to a July 8 report by health information group Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker.

The primary reason given for the proposed rate hikes is that the insured population under the Affordable Care Act - former President Barack Obama's health care law, known as Obamacare - is likely to be smaller and sicker than this year's.

Enrollment in the program dropped by about 3 million this year, and the report estimates that healthier people were more likely to withdraw from the program.

Some experts say that the fall-off in participation was driven by the fall-off of fraudulent enrollments or of participants who had been enrolled unknowingly.

This would be the fifth consecutive year of premium increases in the program. Last year's median proposed change was 18 percent. The final median change was 20 percent, according to the report.

The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.

Initial premium rates for 2027 were filed in mid-June and will be finalized by Aug. 12, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The Peterson-KFF analysis was based on 77 plans across 17 jurisdictions.

Those were Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, and Washington. However, only partial data were available for Hawaii, Illinois, and Texas.

For 2026, 183 health plan issuers are participating in Obamacare, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Despite the expiration of the enhanced subsidies, the vast majority (87 percent) of 2026 Obamacare enrollees receive an advance premium tax credit, according to the Healthcare Financial Management Association.

The average enrollee who gets a federal subsidy receives a $650 credit, leaving a $96 monthly premium, according to data provided by KFF.

Subsidies are available to Americans with a household income of between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That equates to about $15,600 to $62,600 for an individual or about $32,200 to $128,600 for a family of four.

Current Obamacare enrollment is about 19.2 million - the highest for any year except 2025.

Georgetown University's Center on Health Insurance Reforms published a similar preliminary analysis of 2027 rates on June 18. That report forecasted an enrollment decline of 17 percent to 26 percent in the individual market.

The Georgetown report estimates rate hikes ranging from about 7 percent in Vermont to about 22 percent in Washington.

Final rates for Obamacare plans will be posted in October. Open enrollment begins on Nov. 1.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 22:10

Hedge Fund CIO: "We Haven't Yet Diffused AI Across The Economy To The Degree That It Can Be Useful"

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“President Putin said, ‘I would love to meet Zelensky in Moscow.’ And I said, ‘I don't think...you know, I have to put myself in his position. I don’t know that he’d go to Moscow,” said Trump, seated next to Zelensky in the Oval Office, the two of them discussing Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Maybe he would. Would you go to Moscow?” Trump asked Zelensky, putting him on the spot, cameras snapping away. “It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there,” answered Zelensky, unable to suppress a smile. “That’s right,” said Trump. “It’s dangerous,” laughed Zelensky.

Human beings really are the best. We can adapt to the sickest crap. And if we really can’t stop ourselves from killing one another, may as well start joking about it. Iran’s Larijani joked that the IRGC could take Trump out with a micro-drone while sunbathing at Mar-a-Lago. Trump told Fox News that it’s been a long time since he’s been sunbathing, “Maybe I was around 7 or so. I’m not too big into it.”

It wasn’t long ago that the Iran war seemed like a big deal. It used to be that killing heads of state was taboo. And I can remember when people thought closing Hormuz would spark a global depression. Russia’s biggest industrialist, Andrey Melnichenko, warned of the potential for a horrifying outcome if Russia continues down its self-destructive path. I’m pretty sure he was hinting that Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon if backed into a corner.

I first saw a philosophical justification for a preemptive tactical nuke strike 2mths ago [here]. Apparently, now that humans have adapted to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, our thermonuclear nukes have become a bit of a joke, because no one would dare ever use one. The VIX index naturally declined to 15. Which mechanically forces volatility-controlled investment strategies to take more risk. Lifting equity prices. Lowering volatility. Inviting volatility sellers. Just like every other late market cycle. After a while it honestly gets kind of funny. 

Artificial Intelligence+

To break dependence on Western technology and drive a new era of growth, in 2024 Beijing explicitly categorized its industrial focus into:

1. Six Future Industries (long-term, frontier technologies) and
2. Six Emerging Pillar Industries (near-term economic drivers).

Then in Aug 2025, Beijing formalized an “Artificial Intelligence+” initiative, which treats AI as foundational, cross-cutting tech - like electricity or infrastructure - rather than a standalone sector. The initiative emphasizes deep AI integration across The Sixes. 

The Six Future Industries are frontier technologies that Beijing seeks to establish first-mover advantage and dictate global standards over 10yrs. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established six broad overarching categories (Future Manufacturing, Information, Materials, Energy, Space, Health). These translate into six specific priorities: Embodied Artificial Intelligence, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Quantum Technology, Hydrogen & Nuclear Fusion Energy, Biomanufacturing, and 6G Mobile Communications. 

The Six Emerging Pillar Industries are to drive immediate, massive economic output.

• Integrated Circuits: domestic semiconductor manufacturing to bypass US export controls.
• Low-Altitude Economy: drones, flying cars, and infrastructure to manage low-altitude airspace.
• Intelligent Robots: automation hardware for factories/logistics.
• Aviation and Aerospace: commercial spaceflight, satellite networks, domestic commercial aircraft.
• Energy Storage: advanced battery tech to support the grid.
• Biomedicine: advanced pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.

Ten Basis Points:

“It’s going to be China or the US,” said the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech names, macro themes. “A European sovereign AI is a pipe dream – they think Mistral will be their LLM and they’ll build data centers? Really? How exactly?” he asked. “They need Nvidia. They need a tech stack that has emerged from American and Asian IP that combines to form these magical machines that you throw a model into.” To create intelligence. “And what happens to these nations that can’t afford tokens in the next few years? How do India and Brazil and all these second-tier companies even compete?”

“We’ve entered an era where the biggest of the big - Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Tesla, even JP Morgan - will be accessing tokens in ways that is going to catapult their businesses ahead of everybody else,” continued the CIO. “This sort of faux debate over cheap open-source AI versus expensive Anthropic is nonsense. There’s a shortage of intelligence - pure and simple – we’re below ten basis points of market penetration in this stuff across the global economy, why are people even having a debate over this?”

“Given all the component shortages and constraints, and the anti-AI populist backlash, we could see a horrific market crash along the way, but we haven’t yet diffused this technology across the economy to the degree that it can be useful,” he continued. My Tesla drives me everywhere. I’m a super user, virtually alone. But in 10 years, no one will drive. “We have zero AI in  regulated processes within banks, healthcare companies and insurance companies because the errors and hallucination are being ironed out.” But they will be. “This could be the last great bull market in technology. What could eclipse superintelligence?” 

Anecdote:

“As we know the two principal players and their mentor, I take their words and actions as a serious roadmap,” said the CIO. We were discussing Bessent’s speech at the Economic Club of New York [here] and Warsh’s press conference following his first FOMC meeting [here]. “Much like the Chinese Communist Party 5-year plans, we’re glimpsing the future for American economic policy. Having watched the Chinese game the global trading system to the point that it broke leads me to believe it should be reassembled in Scott’s vision for something more equitable,” continued the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech, macro themes.

“AI competition with China is also central to this strategy. It’s possible that like Reagan spending Gorbachev into the ground, we could cause the Chinese system to hit the wall.” Interesting.

“Beijing’s national data center strategy is to build massive scale in token factories.” CXMT is their national DRAM champion and is about to IPO. Its disclosures reveal deep inefficiencies. Beijing will inevitably subsidize its losses. “Chinese open-source models are all the rage on Twitter. They’re not as good for complex thinking but very good at specific tasks and sub agent work. Therefore, as these models sit on US tech stacks, no Chinese innovator is making money - AWS makes the money for producing the token,” he said.

“Having already sunk massive amounts into EV, Solar, and other areas, one day the Chinese may well hit a wall, especially given they have yet to tackle their property sector.” The chronic decline in Chinese property prices has caused a depression in domestic consumption.

“If Scott’s strategy works and allied nations realize it’s better to play along then not, the Chinese export markets could become smaller precisely when they need them most. At the same time Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Hong Kong do stuff we need so we could work more diplomatically with them as they are no longer the Asian Tigers of our youth,” he said.

“Let’s see how it plays out but it’s fascinating and why guys like us stay in the game.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:41

United States Retains Spot As World's Top Oil Producer

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The United States was the largest crude oil producer in the world in 2025, outputting a “record-high” 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a July 9 statement from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

America’s output was far ahead of second-placed Russia, which produced 9.9 million bpd. Saudi Arabia came in third with 9.6 million bpd, with Canada in the fourth spot at 5 million bpd. The difference in oil output between the United States and other top producers widened last year, with Russian supplies mostly remaining unchanged year-over-year while Saudi Arabia saw a modest increase.

The 13.6 million bpd output breaks the previous U.S. and global production record of 13.2 million bpd set in 2024. The United States first overtook Russia as the top global oil producer in 2018 and has since retained the number one spot.

EIA attributed the consistently high oil production in the United States to “continued gains in drilling productivity and operational efficiency across key shale basins, which allow operators to extract more oil per well.”

Powered by shale development, the United States has become not only the top crude oil producer “but the largest producer of crude oil ever,” the agency said.

In addition to record-high production last year, exports have been climbing. In April, U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit a record, with crude oil exports averaging 5.6 million bpd, 21 percent higher than the previous record from December 2023, the EIA said in a July 8 statement.

The exports of finished petroleum products, including jet fuel and motor gasoline, hit the highest level since December 2024.

The record-high exports in April 2026 came amid disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.–Iran war, a development that ended up boosting global demand for American energy. Brent crude oil futures had hit a peak of over $126 per barrel in April. Prices have since come down and ended Friday at around $76.

In its latest statement, EIA said the jump in oil production last year happened despite oil prices being lower, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price dropping from an average of $77 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025. WTI is a benchmark for crude oil produced in the United States.

Moreover, EIA predicts America’s crude oil production to be close to 13.7 million bpd this year and to rise to 14.2 million bpd in 2027.

Boosting Oil Production

The higher oil output follows multiple actions taken by the Trump administration aimed at boosting production.

In November 2025, the administration announced the approval of new oil drilling leases off the coasts of Alaska, Florida, and California.

In January this year, the administration initiated the first step to offering oil and gas drilling leases in California, with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management seeking information on potential lease areas to auction as early as next year.

In March, the Department of the Interior conducted an oil lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, the first since 2019.

This action came under criticism from the environmental group Sierra Club. Mike Scott, Sierra Club’s oil and gas campaign manager, in a March 18 statement, accused President Donald Trump of making oil corporation CEOs richer at the cost of the environment.

“The Western Arctic is not just any landscape—it’s one of the last true wild places in the country, home to rare and threatened wildlife and cultures that have subsisted on the land for thousands of years,” Scott said.

“Drilling in the Arctic won’t solve our energy crisis, but it will cause irreversible damage to these pristine landscapes. Big Oil has been champing at the bit to get its hands on these lands, and Trump is making their wishes come true.”

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum had said, post the lease sale in Alaska, that the sale underscored the reserve’s vital role in strengthening America’s energy security.

The reserve “was created to support our nation’s energy needs, and this successful sale demonstrates what’s possible when we align responsible development with that original purpose,” Burgum said. “Revenues from these leases will help bolster local communities, create good‑paying jobs, and ensure that Alaska continues to be a cornerstone of America’s domestic energy production.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice has decided to ditch the oil and gas leasing restrictions imposed by the prior administration in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Alaska and its industrial development and export authority had filed lawsuits challenging the restrictions.

On July 7, the department said that these restrictions violated federal law and asked the court to dismiss the lawsuits.

U.S. acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that the prior administration’s actions “improperly limited” Alaska’s energy potential through “unreasonable” regulations. “This settlement supports the Trump administration’s commitment to secure American energy independence and our national security for generations to come.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:00

These Are The States Driving America's Economic Growth

The U.S. economy grew 2.1% in real terms in 2025, but that national figure tells only part of the story. While every state economy expanded, some grew nearly ten times faster than others.

Using the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), this map, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, compares real GDP growth across all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

The Sun Belt Ascendant

No states grew more in 2025 than Florida and South Carolina, which both expanded by 3.1%. Their strong growth rates reflect the continued economic momentum of the American South and the broader Sun Belt.

Arkansas (2.2%), North Carolina (2.7%), and Texas (2.5%) also performed better than the national average.

This data table ranks U.S. states based on their 2025 real GDP growth, measuring the change in overall economic output after adjusting for inflation.

 

Both the Southeast and Southwest regions grew by an average of 2.3% in 2025. Increasingly, these Sun Belt regions have benefited from favorable corporate tax regimes and lower costs of living relative to more traditional growth hubs such as the Northeast and Far West.

 

Population growth has also become an important driver of the region’s economic expansion. Lower housing costs in many markets, business-friendly tax policies, and continued migration from other parts of the country have supported stronger demand, investment, and job creation across much of the Sun Belt. Two-thirds of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. are southern Sun Belt cities, often in Florida or Texas.

The Continued Strength of California and New York

However, strong growth was not limited to the South. California, the nation’s largest state economy, saw growth of 2.5%.

Despite record domestic migration outflows, the Golden State remains a major economic force with sustained, above-average growth. Similarly, New York registered 2.9% growth in real GDP in 2025, third-highest in the country.

Growth within these traditional heavyweights was powered by robust private investment and strong years for sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, and professional services.

The Slowest Growth in the Nation

Nationwide, the slowest growth was registered in North Dakota (0.3%), followed by West Virginia and Wyoming at 0.5% each. No state’s GDP contracted in 2025, while Washington, D.C. saw just 0.4% annual growth.

At the regional level, the Plains (1.4%) and Great Lakes (1.7%) regions lagged the rest of the country. These regions were particularly hurt by downturns in agriculture and a manufacturing slump, both of which were impacted by trade disruptions.

Meanwhile, a record-long government shutdown in late 2025 also affected many local communities dependent on federal agricultural financing.

Wondering how these state-level growth patterns fit into the national picture? Check out OECD Cuts U.S. Growth Forecast Over Tariffs, Policy Uncertainty on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:25

Oil Jumps, Futures Drop On Fresh Iran Strikes, Hormuz Confusion

Oil jumped and US equity futures fell after the US launched another round of strikes against Iran, while conflicting claims over the status of the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty.

S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% in early trading Monday after the cash index closed 0.4% higher on Friday.

WTI crude climbed 3% at the open, trading around $74, while the dollar rose against most major peers. 

Risk crept in after the US military launched several rounds of strikes in recent days, culminating with the latest barrage around 5pmET on Sunday aimed at further weakening Iran’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said. The latest action followed Iranian drone and missile attacks on US allies including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar in response to earlier US strikes. 

At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 12, 2026

Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz only added to the uncertainty, after Iran said it had closed the waterway while the US military and maritime authorities said shipping continued through its southern route. According to Axios, a US official said "around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination."

“The latest developments over the weekend suggest markets may face a volatile start to trading which could test the glass half full mentality we have seen recently,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

Besides a return to hostilities, investors are also bracing for a pivotal earnings season, with results from JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman and Wells all due Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 24% jump in second-quarter profits, though the benchmark’s rally has become increasingly reliant on gains outside the technology megacaps that have driven markets in recent years.

In Europe, Deutsche Bank expects Stoxx 600 firms to report a 12% jump in second-quarter earnings, following a 7% rise in the first quarter. Profits for MSCI Asia Pacific constituents are estimated to rise 39%, up from 6.9% in the previous three months, largely driven by chip-exporting powerhouses such as Korea and Japan. 

The outlook is being tested by persistent inflation, higher energy prices and growing expectations the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates, threatening corporate margins. Just last week, several Fed officials warned that surging memory prices are rising core inflation, with Goldman calculating that the impact on core PCE by year-end will be +0.5% due to surging chip costs.

With US and global equities trading near record highs and valuations elevated, investors see little room for disappointing results.

Investors will also keep a close eye on this week's US CPI data, after oil’s biggest weekly gain since mid-May revived concerns that higher energy costs could further complicate the disinflation story. Consumer and producer price reports - the last inflation readings before the Fed meets later this month - will offer fresh clues on the path of interest rates.

Traders have ramped up bets on further tightening, with swaps pricing almost 40 basis points of Fed hikes by December, up from about 15 basis points in early June. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect both headline and core inflation to have eased slightly in June, though both are forecast to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.  

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also make his first congressional appearance since taking the helm after pledging to scale back forward guidance on the rate outlook.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:20

US Men's World Cup Team Required To Split $12.8M Payout With Women's Team

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

America’s fleeting interest in soccer may once again have abated following a humiliating World Cup defeat to Belgium last Monday, in a game that saw President Donald Trump become personally involved over a red-card dispute.

But the high-profile flop in the first elimination round was not the only indignity that the U.S. athletes must endure.

A collective bargaining agreement means that the team will have to share its $16 million prize pot (minus a 20% cut for the U.S. Men’s Soccer organization) with the U.S. women’s team.

“The remaining 80 percent is split evenly between the men’s and women’s player pools, meaning each team is set to receive $6.4 million from the USMNT’s run,” the New York Post reported.

That puts the estimated takeaway for each player on the two teams’ 26-man -person rosters at $246,153. However, since there is no finalized roster for the women’s team, which will vie for its fifth World Cup championship next year in Brazil, those payouts will remain in escrow for now.

The women’s success in the quadrennial tournament gave them extra leverage to demand the pay gap be closed after their 2019 championship title. By contrast, the men’s team has never won the tournament and last made it to the round of 16 in 2002.

But the men’s matches historically have drawn greater viewership. The loss to Belgium saw a U.S. television audience exceeding 45 million viewers, while the highest-rated women’s game, the 2015 World Cup final, saw the audience peak at just 26.7 million.

For winning the entire tournament in 2019, the women’s team received a total of $4 million from the $30 million overall that the league took in.

Despite the attempt at pay parity, critics such as The Spectator’s Melissa Chen noted that the agreement flies in the face of one of capitalism’s central tenets — the importance of market value.

The US men's national soccer team is being subjected to the same kind of legalized plunder that defines too many divorce proceedings in this country.

After grinding through qualifiers, earning their spot in the World Cup, and generating the massive FIFA payout that only the… https://t.co/ZnSJjDHcbD

— Melissa Chen (@MsMelChen) July 9, 2026

“It disincentivizes excellence on the men’s side (why push harder if your windfall gets redistributed?) and removes pressure on the women’s side to grow their own commercial appeal,” Chen wrote. “Like divorce settlements that trap high-earners in perpetual support roles, this policy treats men’s soccer as a piggy bank for ‘fairness,’ not a business rewarding what fans and sponsors actually value."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 19:50

Geothermal Heats Up: Fervo Drilling Rates Soar 143% While Quaise Raises $134M

While the Trump administration keeps pushing domestic energy addition through funding vehicles and executive orders aimed at grid reliability and AI-driven demand growth, two next-generation geothermal developers just posted updates that move past announcements and into measurable progress on drilling and capital formation.

Fervo announced that its third-generation well design at Cape Station in Utah has lifted drilling rates by 143% compared with the first Cape well. 

The latest well, Sawtooth 7, reached 19,448 feet measured depth, including a 7,500-foot lateral, in just 21 days. That’s a 70% reduction in drilling time versus the prior design generation, even as the team targets hotter rock at 460 degrees Fahrenheit and larger casing diameters for higher output per well. 

Phase I at Cape Station remains on track for first power later this year, with Phase II targeting 400 MW online in 2028. Faster wells directly compress costs and timelines for the kind of repeatable deployment investors have been waiting to see.

Fervo’s Cape Phase II is tracking toward roughly $5,500/kW installed, with a longer-term target of $3,000/kW as the drilling learning curve keeps compounding. That remains well below the Georgia Vogtle nuclear units, which ultimately landed somewhere between $10,000 and $15,000/kW after years of delays and overruns.

As we reported back in February when the DOE released its $171.5 million Notice of Funding Opportunity for EGS field tests and resource confirmation drilling, the policy environment has turned supportive for technologies that can deliver firm, 24/7 carbon-free power without weather dependence. 

Quaise Energy moved in parallel with the initial close of a $134 million Series B round, bringing total funding to roughly $230 million. Prelude Ventures led, with strategic participation from JERA and Idemitsu Kosan of Japan. 

The proceeds target Project Obsidian, the company’s planned first commercial superhot geothermal plant on federal leases in central Oregon near Newberry Volcano. Quaise’s millimeter-wave drilling technology is approaching one kilometer of depth in Texas test wells after penetrating more than 100 meters of granite. 

The goal remains first electrons to the grid by 2030 from a facility with long-term gigawatt-scale potential once superhot rock above 300 degrees Celsius is routinely accessed.

Both moves align with the administration’s emphasis on unleashing American energy dominance and securing reliable power for data centers that cannot tolerate intermittency. Geothermal’s baseload profile makes it a natural complement to the nuclear builds that remain frustratingly slow on actual construction despite regulatory tailwinds.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 19:15

The Real Point Of The "Patriot Front" Psy-Op

Authored by Kit Knightly via OffGuardian,

Over the Fourth of July weekend, Washington DC found itself beset by the "Patriot Front", about 400 guys in matching outfits, with white balaclavas covering their faces and waving flags about.

The (relatively small) gathering walked about a bit, did some marching, waved some flags...and scared the press to death!

The group marched away from Union Station, carrying various flags, including Confederate flags. pic.twitter.com/Xo0WDH2B9O

— Mitchell Miller (@mmillerwtop) July 4, 2026

They're not real, of course.

The running joke has already become they are barely-disguised federal agents indulging in some rather lame propaganda, even as some members of rightwing defend both their realness and their aims.

Apparently they do community projects and stuff.

Regardless, they are not real. Even if they're not literally all FBI agents - which we can't actually rule out - they are a psy-op to some extent or another.

Just look at them. And you can just look at them, do you know why? Because they're all over the press and social media.

This picture in particular has "gone viral":

Several similarly themed "lone ethnic minority surrounded by faceless Nazis" pictures all sprang up at once, which is suspicious in and of itself, but this is the one that really stuck.

Both the bots and people who don't realise they've become bots are promoting it all over the place. "It should win a Pulitzer prize" they say. "This photo will define our age."

This kind of coverage, this kind of engineered viral content, is the hallmark of the psy-op, and it shows what Patriot Front (and groups like them) are really for:

Creating the illusory threat of potential fascism on the fringes to distract from very real fascism already in the very centre of power.

"You see those guys? In the khakis waving flags about? They're Nazis. That's what fascism is, waving flags and doing wrong think.

"Us, the people who spy on you, lock you in your house, track your movements, restrict your speech and indoctrinate your kids, we're not fascists. In fact, we're protecting you from the meanie fascists and their heinous flag-waving ways."

That's the point of displays like the Patriot Front.

They transform fascism from policy into paraphernalia. Fascism becomes a combination of outfit and accoutrements, rather than authoritarian politics.

With the implied corollary that, as long as you're not wearing the outfit or waving the flag, you're not actually fascist.

Even as the Flock cameras spread, digital ID looms, and authors are imprisoned for criticizing the regime.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 18:40

James Carville Has Major Freakout Over The Socialist Wing Of The Party

James Carville thinks Democrats are making the same mistake that helped elect Donald Trump in 2016 - and he says they're doing it all over again.

In a Politicon video posted Friday, the veteran Democratic strategist blasted the party's growing crop of Democratic socialist insurgents, arguing they're more interested in defeating fellow Democrats than Republicans and warning they'll hand the GOP more victories in the process.

He pointed to a string of primary defeats that have unseated sitting Democratic members of Congress in favor of candidates running even further to their left. In New York, Brad Lander defeated Rep. Dan Goldman, and Democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier ousted Rep. Adriano Espaillat. Democratic socialist Melat Kiros beat sitting Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado. Carville also singled out Michigan candidate Abdul El-Sayed as the case study of what worries him most, accusing him of running a campaign that treats both parties as enemies rather than just Republicans.

For Carville, the roots of today's fight go back nearly a decade. He called the 2016 election when President Donald Trump was elected the most catastrophic event of this century and put the blame on Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), whom he described as an insurgent liberal who dragged the Democratic primary into the summer long after the math had settled that race.

"How did Trump win? I'll tell you how, because goddamn Bernie Sanders is the reason that Donald Trump is president. You hear me, listen to me, I'm telling you the truth." By Carville's read, the prolonged primary bled working-class voters out of Pennsylvania and into Trump's column. "Because Sanders is telling working people in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin... that somehow or another it was corporate America. Yeah, it's corporate. The Democrats are a corporatist party. There's no difference between the establishment Democrats... Are you kidding me?"

Now Carville sees the sequel writing itself. He argues the new class of socialist challengers is running the same play against Democratic incumbents that Sanders once ran against Clinton, and he wants no part of the popular argument on the left that establishment Democrats and establishment Republicans are interchangeable.

"These people are so f-king stupid I don't know what to say about it," Carville said. "So now we have this idea that these insurgent Democrats - and what is their solution?"

His actual complaint runs deeper than a stray insult. Carville argues these candidates aren't trying to beat Republicans at all. They're running against their own party as if it were the obstacle, a strategy he considers self-defeating on its face.

"Is their solution to beat Republicans, to run against Republicans? No! Their solution is to beat Democrats like they're part of the problem. You are part of the problem because you're a f-king idiot!"

Carville warned Democrats against what he called false prophets, accusing far-left candidates of marketing themselves as superior to both parties in a pitch he thinks collapses under its own weight once the general election arrives.

Carville's criticism of the far left and Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates hardly makes him a moderate. He still views the Democratic Party as America's answer and the Republican Party as its biggest obstacle. "It's not both parties' faults! One party expanded health insurance, all right? Another party destroyed it. One party balanced the budget and created economic prosperity. The other party destroyed it. One party brought about a deal with Iran's nuclear program. Another party destroyed it," he said.

"And all these people, go beat a Republican - then come back and I will respect you," Carville said. "Until you do that, I have nothing but contempt for you. And somehow or another, among Democrats, something became more important than winning elections. And that became, 'Oh, I want to feel superior to people.'"

Carville sees the far left of the party as responsible for Donald Trump's election and, thus, for the current makeup of the Supreme Court. "None of this would have happened, none of it if it wasn't for the left wing of the Democratic Party," he said. "If you believe that, blame the left wing of the Democratic Party for the catastrophe that we're facing right now. Because as much as any group, it's their fault."

Watch:

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 18:05

McConnell Watch: CNN Duped Into Running Fake X Post Mocking Its Own Analyst

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

OOPS: CNN This Morning cites parody account of fake congressman @RepJackKimble on list of quotes about Sen. Mitch McConnell's health. pic.twitter.com/GBXJ37bkoe

— Nick (@nspin310) July 8, 2026

Since last year's corporate takeover of CNN's parent company, Warner Brothers, by Paramount Skydance and its Trump-friendly CEO, David Ellison, the notoriously left-slanted network has been braced for the inevitable fallout.

A humiliating on-air mistake that involved quoting a fake member of Congress may be just the catalyst needed for some heavy-handed house-cleaning.

On Wednesday, "CNN This Morning" anchor Audie Cornish shared a series of social-media statements from GOP insiders who claimed to have been in contact with AWOL Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

The roundup included statements from spokespeople for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. and John Barrasso, R-Wyo., as well as former McConnell campaign adviser Scott Jennings, himself a regular CNN panelist.

"He's still recovering in the hospital. We talked for just shy of 20 minutes," Jennings wrote Tuesday in an X post.

Many found the "trust me" posts to be unconvincing amid mounting speculation that McConnell may be braindead, if not altogether deceased, following a June 14 medical emergency, and a growing clamor for proof-of-life evidence.

Jennings's post spawned several imitators, also claiming to have spoken to McConnell on a disparate array of unlikely topics.

I spoke to McConnell for about 20 minutes this morning. He said we should end the war with Iran, quit giving aid to Israel, stop spying on Americans without a warrant, and he's really sorry about how my primary turned out.

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) July 7, 2026

Among the dubious claims was one from the spoof account of fake lawmaker Rep. Jack Kimble, representing California's 54th district (it currently has only 52).

"We talked for just shy of 45 minutes," the post said, following a familiar template.

"He's so sharp," it continued. "Just like always he let me do all of the talking. He's a great listener. After that we prayed silently for awhile and had a staring contest. Just like always, he beat me."

I spoke to my old friend Mitch McConnell this morning, the senior Senator from Kentucky. He's still recovering in the hospital. We talked for just shy of 45 minutes. He's so sharp. Just like always he let me do all of the talking. He's a great listener. After that we prayed…

— Rep. Jack Kimble (@RepJackKimble) July 7, 2026

Kimble's prank drew positive responses from both sides of the aisle.

Professional Trump hater George Conway, who recently lost his bid to be a Democrat congressman from New York, wrote, "You are my favorite Congressman."

You are my favorite Congressman

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) July 8, 2026

Meanwhile, Brendan Carr, a Trump ally and current chair of the Federal Communications Commission, seemed to take particular note of the allegations that CNN was exposing its left-wing biases once again, writing "oof" on a post that was commenting on the subject.

oof

— Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) July 8, 2026

Cornish corrected the record on Thursday's broadcast, stating "Obviously we should not have done that, and we regret the error."

According to the New York Post, the parody Kimble account claims to be "the brainchild of a Chicago school teacher." The account, launched in 2009, has previously fooled the Washington Post and the Huffington Post website.

Kimble also has a book for sale on Amazon, titled Detective Jesus No. 1: Thou Shalt Not Kill.

Kimble claims in his X biography to be the co-sponsor of Poe's Law, which the Post described as "a reference to the internet adage that parodies of extreme political views are often mistaken for genuine statements unless clearly marked as satire."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 17:30

Trump Admin Subpoenas New York Times Reporters Over Coverage Of New Air Force One

The Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas on Friday to four New York Times reporters, ordering them to testify in Manhattan on Wednesday about stories describing security gaps in the new Air Force One. Federal agents showed up at some of the reporters' homes to deliver the subpoenas in person, a detail that has The Times claiming amounts to government intimidation.

The four subpoenaed journalists are Julian E. Barnes, Eric Lipton, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt. Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, issued the subpoenas, which offer almost nothing in the way of specifics beyond a request that the reporters testify "in regard to an alleged violation of federal criminal law."

The two stories in question ran on consecutive days this week, both built on anonymous sourcing. Wednesday's story claimed Trump left Turkey aboard the older Air Force One because the Secret Service urged the switch as a security precaution. Thursday's follow-up reported that the new Qatari-donated Boeing 747-8 lacks some of the advanced security features found on the older plane, including antimissile capabilities.

Those details describe the defensive capabilities of the aircraft that carries the president of the United States, sourced anonymously and published for anyone in the world to read, including people who wish the president harm.

"The appearance of federal law enforcement agents on the doorstep of news reporters should shock the conscience of any American who believes in the Constitution and the press freedom it protects," David McCraw, the top newsroom lawyer for the New York Times, said in a Friday evening statement. "Our journalists report the facts and advance the American public's right to know how their government is operating and their taxpayer dollars are being used. This brazen act should be seen as nothing more than an attempt to prevent the public from knowing what is happening in their country by intimidating journalists from doing their jobs."

The Times casts the subpoenas as further evidence of a uniquely hostile administration. "Mr. Trump has long been a harsh critic of the news media," the paper wrote. "But in his second term in office, he has moved aggressively to use the immense powers of the federal government in his efforts to attack the press."

The article also noted that "both Democratic and Republican administrations have initiated leak investigations into the disclosure of classified information," while adding that "subpoenas aimed at journalists are not common" and that First Amendment advocates warn they can chill newsgathering.

Historically, Justice Department leak investigations have generally focused on the government employees or contractors who disclosed classified information rather than the journalists or news organizations that published it.

When prosecutors have sought information from journalists, they usually issue subpoenas aimed at identifying sources or gathering evidence, not to punish the act of publication itself. Still, even in those cases, the press has not taken it well. For example, the Obama Justice Department secretly obtained two months of telephone records from more than 20 AP phone lines while investigating a classified leak tied to a foiled terrorist plot. The AP called the seizure a "massive and unprecedented intrusion" into its newsgathering operations, and the move drew criticism from press freedom organizations across the political spectrum. In investigating a leak involving North Korea, Obama's Department of Justice obtained a search warrant for Fox News reporter James Rosen's emails and phone records. To obtain the warrant, an FBI affidavit described Rosen as a possible "aider, abettor and/or co-conspirator" under the Espionage Act, despite Rosen never being charged with a crime. The same administration spent years trying to compel New York Times reporter James Risen to reveal a confidential source in the prosecution of former CIA officer Jeffrey Sterling.

The Justice Department addressed the current controversy in a statement posted to X, and its language suggests officials anticipated exactly the reaction The Times delivered.

"Every administration has addressed the crime of leaking national security information," the department said. "To the extent that we have to investigate breaches of national security, that's something that we will continue to do. To be clear, reporters are not the targets, those leaking classified information are."

The statement continued, "We value and appreciate the important role that the press plays in this country, but DOJ also plays an important role to make sure that the people entrusted with our nation's secrets do what they're supposed to do with that information, which means not sharing classified information. We recognize there may always be natural tension there, but we are not going to ignore the law and stop investigating the people who work in the administration and think it's okay to leak classified information impacting national security."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 16:55

Inflection Point Overload?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Inflection Point Overload? 

Between 250th Celebrations, heat waves, power failures, and jet lag, I feel more discombobulated than I have in a long time (I do admit that I really liked a sign that I think was in PHX airport just past security – Recombobulation Area). I think that’s what I could use.

In any case, last weekend’s ProSec Mid-Year Outlook is worth checking out. We had people send us several variations of the same theme – the concept is catching on for investors and corporations even if the name isn’t (yet). 

We also published our positive take on where Compute credit spreads are headed. “Compute” is meant to capture data centers, AI, and the entire ecosystem. We are a bit more focused on the corporate bond side of things, but there are implications and ramifications on the private and project finance/structured side of the world too. We are positive on the sector for a number of reasons and will be expanding on the rationale in the coming days (or weeks, as this week’s schedule of Berlin, Munich, Rome, Dublin, and Belfast may leave little time for typing). 

While the Iran conflict may seem to be at an inflection point (the risk of escalation is back on the table), we expect this is just a move to a riskier end of the current status quo, rather than a shift in how markets should be thinking about this conflict. However, it is important to note that the U.S. strategy, with the ceasefire having been declared “over,” is shifting to a priority of re-establishing deterrence. Neil Wiley from our GIG, the former Principal Executive in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that “Iran will calculate that they can strike when it suits, confident that they can comfortably endure whatever comes back at them. In this circumstance, there is fundamentally no deterrence. I am concerned that this is now where we find ourselves. Establishing or re-establishing deterrence requires, ironically, a very disproportionate response.” This is what we have seen this week with the third strikes being launched by the U.S. on Saturday in response to yet another Iranian attack on commercial shipping in the Strait. The U.S. has both shortened the time between Iranian attacks and its strikes and increased the magnitude of its retaliatory strikes in an effort to convince Iran that it is not in its best interest to continue these attacks. We will have to see if this has the intended effect, but the message is clear: the U.S. is now hitting Iran much harder than before for allowing the IRGC to attack ships in the Strait, even if it is just rogue elements of the IRGC conducting these attacks. 

Possible Inflection Points 

AI spending. This is the most important potential inflection point for the market and the economy. Is it slowing at all? Are there bottlenecks that will slow it, even if it doesn’t want to be slowed? The market seems to oscillate back and forth. While I think the answer remains to be determined, there are many stocks in the sector down well into double digits on a percentage basis in recent weeks, so maybe the market already answered the question and we can move on? We discuss this to some degree in both the Thursday report and last weekend’s report as well. 

• Earnings. I rarely focus on earnings. About 70% of companies will beat earnings and Wall Street (checks calendar) will act surprised for the 200th quarter running! But this time I will pay more attention than usual. Last quarter, earnings really seemed to be what turned the stock market around. We can argue and nitpick that it was possibly too few sectors that really drove the earnings story (lots participated, but there were some really positive outliers). More recently, a chip company’s earnings call set the stage for the latest rebound in tech as it convincingly laid out the case for strong demand, and more importantly, committed orders for years to come. I’m not about to go all in on understanding the earnings season dynamics, but I will be paying closer attention. It is nice that many companies will combine to determine how good earnings season is for the market (for a few quarters, it all seemed to hang on NVDA). 

Russia/Ukraine. Are we nearing an inflection point here? From “how are you dressed in my office” to “sure, we can set up a Patriot missile factory in your country,” the relationship between the President and Zelensky has changed. I can’t remember the last time the President played the “droog” card with Putin. A Clockwork Orange had many “slang” words (Nadsat) based on Russian words (some argue Ukrainian), so it seemed like an appropriate time to insert a reference. In any case, the war is changing. Russia is attacking Ukraine more heavily (dangerous for Ukraine, but likely a sign of things getting worse for Russia). Increasingly, Ukraine is being allowed to follow a military plan along the lines of what our GIG would have drawn up on day 1 (there have been restrictions on what they could do, even when they had the right hardware, on top of lack of access to some hardware). Trump hinted that the U.S. now has mineral stakes in Ukraine during his recent trip. If there is a peace deal of any sort, expect opportunities for investments in Russia and Ukraine. Expect Poland to be a staging ground for many U.S. operations (corporate, investment, and military) into both Ukraine and Russia. Peace doesn’t seem close, but with both sides having more firepower, as well as their own sets of difficulties, maybe we are nearing that time? 

Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade. 

Both times we had steep declines in the USD vs JPY, we saw U.S. equity markets sell off. The summer of 2024 was linked to the carry trade, while spring of 2025 was more about tariffs and Liberation Day. Is the yen going to continue to decline? By all accounts, betting against the yen, especially after recent attempts at intervention have failed, is a popular trade (dare I say, consensus?). The case for a weaker yen makes a lot of sense, but, as a contrarian, the opportunity for a rapid appreciation seems worth paying attention to, if not betting on. 

Crypto and DATCos. Digital Asset Treasury Companies have been both a blessing and a curse to crypto. The companies certainly provided a lot of support on the way up. Some DATCos do a lot with their crypto and are heavily involved in the infrastructure of the space. Others seem to be accumulation vehicles, where their sources of funds to accumulate have grown more complex. 

There is no arguing that this administration has been pro-crypto. The enthusiasm post-2024 election is obvious. The naming of the crypto czar and an accommodating regulatory environment helped push crypto to all-time highs. It has been a “dark” time since then. While headlines have generally been positive, crypto has struggled. In recent weeks, much of the selling has been attributed to MSTR selling bitcoin to fund some of its “debt” servicing requirements (really preferreds). The “security” best known as STRC ($STRC on Twitter) has been front and center in recent angst. That security seems to have bottomed as the Strategy team has announced several steps (changing the payment schedule, increasing the dividend, and selling a larger amount of crypto to raise more USD). Have they done enough to alleviate market fears? Is this an inflection point, where the market can move beyond the current needs of some DATCos and focus on potential upside from the administration continuing to embrace crypto? Or are we headed to new lows, despite that support, which would be scary? My expectation is that the bounce we’ve seen will be short-lived, as FOMO in crypto is almost gone (very few advisors not already allocated to crypto seem that excited about the prospect at the moment). And the gambling/get-rich-quick crowd has long since moved from crypto. Watch this market as the next leg is likely to be important for overall market sentiment/cash flows. 

Inflation. Our argument for expecting rate cuts before hikes and possibly as soon as September hinges on inflation. Yes, Warsh is watching inflation. But: 

• Inflation is coming down. The classic “magician” in the room. Warsh is an inflation hawk because he expects inflation to come down. 
• While we weren’t selected for the data source task force, by all accounts his selections to run the various task forces have been met with approval. Even with the announcement, it might be too early to expect a change in which data is deemed most important by September. Given the people picked, it may take longer to establish the committee and deliver findings than I hoped or expected. 

For our view on the path of rates, we need this to be true, and we are betting on it. The market definitely has a different perception (either on the path of inflation or on how much Warsh cares about inflation) than we do. 

Bottom Line 

While many might hope for a “sleepy” July, given how frantic this year has been, with so many key markets at possible inflection points, it seems like hoping for a dull summer is wishful thinking (for those hoping to take a break from the screens). This might be one of the most consequential earnings seasons that I can remember, let alone for a summer earnings season. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 15:10

With Dismissed Lawsuits And DOE Support, Holtec Delays Palisades Nuclear Plant Restart Further

Holtec announced last week that the major refurbishment projects at Palisades are complete.

Reactor vessel inspections, head penetration replacements, steam generator tube refurbishment, primary system decontamination, and operator training all wrapped up. New fuel now sits on site, ready for loading. The company called it a "watershed moment" and shifted focus to grinding through the remaining work.

Yet there is still no restart date…

     “Holtec International remains on track to restart operations at Palisades in October 2025”

These are the comments provided by a Utility Dive article in 2025 after they spoke with Holtec’s International Director of Government Affairs and Communications Patrick O’Brien.

Needless to say, that date has passed. Starting earlier this year, the company pivoted to the vaguer line that Palisades would restart "when the plant is ready for long-term operations." CEO Kris Singh told the Financial Times he still expects the plant back this year, ahead of the March 2027 power supply contract. But "this year" is now half over with no firm schedule attached.

When the $1.5 billion DOE loan closed in 2024, expectations centered on a late 2025 restart. As the first deadline came to pass near the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, material issues, particularly with steam generators, had pushed the target into the middle of 2026. 

Each update added a few more months. Now the language has softened further into "steady progress" and "when ready." More than 5,000 individual work activities remain on the checklist. Most are described as routine maintenance, testing, inspection, and operational readiness items. 

The legal and financial pieces have at least moved forward. A federal court dismissed the environmental groups' lawsuit challenging the NRC exemption that allows a decommissioned plant to restart. 

Holtec is also preparing an IPO that multiple outlets peg at a roughly $10 billion valuation.

Palisades was always presented as the easiest restart project on the table. An existing plant on an existing site, with a recently operating license framework, the first major DOE loan guarantee, and novel NRC regulatory pathways created specifically to enable it. If any restart should have translated funding, approvals, and major refurbishment work into electrons on the grid without prolonged slippage, this was the one. 

The repeated movement of internal targets and the current shift to “when the plant is ready for long-term operations” instead makes reactor restarts look more uncertain and execution-heavy than simply licensing and building a new plant from scratch. That undercuts the core industry argument that restarts represent the lowest-risk, fastest path to new nuclear capacity.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 14:35