Judge Extends Order Allowing News Agencies White House Access

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has extended his order forbidding President Donald Trump from excluding certain media outlets from accessing the White House.

U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly issued a memorandum opinion on Oct. 13 granting a preliminary injunction sought by CNN, MS NOW, and Politico to maintain the block on the president's press ban, finding that the plaintiffs were likely to succeed on their First Amendment discrimination claim.

Trump announced on social media last month that he was banning CNN, MS NOW, and Politico "as a result of their constant 'reporting' FAKE NEWS!"

After the outlets sued, Kelly ordered the White House to temporarily restore access on Sept. 24, ruling that the government likely violated their Fifth Amendment due process rights by abruptly taking away their press passes without notice or a hearing.

Attorney Theodore J. Boutrous Jr. told the court at an Oct. 8 hearing that Trump wanted to ban the outlets because of their viewpoints.

"He doesn't like scrutiny of his policies, he doesn't like the reporting, he wants more good press," he said.

Department of Justice Senior Counsel Michael Velchik pushed back, telling the court that Trump was more concerned with media outlets allegedly fabricating quotes, splicing together interviews, and using anonymous sources.

"He doesn't mind negative press stories if he deserves them. He has problems with trafficking verifiable falsehoods," he said.

The government argued it was necessary to exclude those outlets in the name of national security and to prevent leaks of classified information.

But Kelly said, when originally ordering the White House to restore access, that there was no evidence on the record to back up that claim.

In his ruling on Tuesday, Kelly said Trump likely revoked their access to the White House press area "because he believes their coverage of him and his administration is generally inaccurate and biased," rather than for legitimate government interests such as maintaining professional standards for journalists or protecting national security.

"Simply put, that is unlawful viewpoint discrimination," the judge wrote.

Kelly also said the plaintiffs were likely to succeed in their claim that the administration denied them due process rights under the Fifth Amendment by revoking their access without prior notice.

The judge determined that the administration's letters outlining the reasons for the hard passes revocation were inadequate because the outlets received the letters only after the ban was implemented.

The letters cited reports that the administration said "threatened national security and spread falsehoods," including coverage of "'top-secret' construction details" about the East Wing bunker and funding for the White House ballroom.

The White House said the reports included detailed descriptions of how the Secret Service would invest in security improvements, according to the government's Sept. 22 court filing.

The judge said there was no evidence that Trump had relied on the reported incidents cited in the letters when deciding to revoke the outlets' hard passes.

The Epoch Times reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Trump signaled on Sept. 21 that he expected the judge to rule in favor of the outlets and said his administration would appeal if that happened.

"In any event, I have an obligation to fight for the Success and Safety of our Country. FAKE NEWS IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY, and I will do whatever is necessary to make sure that the U.S.A. thrives," he wrote in a Truth Social post.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 12:35

Ukraine Attacks Two More Refineries After Trump's Proclaimed 'Energy Ceasefire': Kremlin

The Kremlin on Wednesday indicated that work on the Trump-proposed energy truce with Ukraine is continuing, but in contradiction with recent Trump proclamations did not treat it as any kind of done deal currently in effect.

President Trump in a late in the day Monday exchange with reporters said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin must come together to end the war. He told the press at the White House that there had been violations of his proposed "energy ceasefire" by both Ukraine and Russia. Trump had previously stated that the warring sides agreed to an energy ceasefire, which Zelensky has balked at, saying specifics of when such a ceasefire is supposed begin must be shared with him.

That's when Trump claimed: "Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said: 'you agree.' That's why. They agreed because I said they agreed."

More evidence has emerged Wednesday that this supposed 'agreement' is still being violated almost on a daily basis. The Kremlin has announced two more oil refineries have just been attacked by Ukrainian drones:

Russia Deputy PM Novak says Ukraine attacked two refineries in Russia today; Ukraine are not showing any signs of moving towards an "energy truce".

TASS has identified these as the Saratov and Ryazan refineries. These refineries have been targeted previously in the war, with Saratov in particular having suffered a full shutdown from damage in September 2025, during which time it was repaired. State media has been circulating the fresh reports:

Ukrainian drones attack two oil refineries in Russia's Saratov and Ryazan regions today — Deputy PM Alexander Novak The Ukrainian side is not showing any movement toward an energy ceasefire, the official added https://t.co/L0dTRPqAox

— RT (@RT_com) October 14, 2026

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has meanwhile issued a fresh press briefing wherein he said the government is committed to resolving the Ukraine conflict but that "The risk of sabotage by European countries does exist." Ironically Europe is currently accusing Moscow of doing just this.

"The US, specifically its negotiators and President Trump, is making efforts to help steer the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis toward peace," Peskov stated.

But then he lashed out at the EU and NATO, saying: "Europeans are taking a different approach: they are doing everything they can to ensure that this war continues."

"There’s a lot of media hype around all of this right now, and much of it doesn’t correspond to reality; it’s pure fiction." He was further quoted as saying:

Work on the possibility of an "energy ceasefire" is continuing.

But he also conceded: "There are no agreed-upon meetings on the agenda." Peskov hinted at the usual backchannels, however: "This work is ongoing discreetly and it will continue discreetly," he added.

As for Ukraine's Zelensky, his first reaction to Trump earlier declaring an 'energy ceasefire' was to say it was "news to me" - strongly suggesting no such thing is in place. Both sides have continued to send wave after wave of devastating drone waves against the other, including against energy infrastructure.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 12:05

"Flashing Red": Rate-Hike Odds, Bond Yields Explode Higher After Hotter-Than-Expected CPI

Tl;dr: "This inflation report is flashing red for the Fed," according to Olu Sonola, Head of US Economics at Fitch Ratings.

"Energy pushed the headline number higher, as expected, but the real problem is that core inflation remains stuck above 3%. Higher energy costs are beginning to seep into broader services prices, increasing the risk that this inflation burst will persist. A rate hike at the end of the month is now firmly on the table, but December remains the more likely move."

We don’t know if these numbers will ultimately prove to be a game changer for the Fed, but they sure don’t fit the message we’ve heard recently from some policymakers saying they have time to assess how the data plays out. 

There does not appear to be any quirky one-off 'excusable' data-points (like last month's phone bill and information processing surge) for the doves to 'look through' which explains why October is now well and truly back on the table and December is a definite.

*  *  *

Expectations were for a hot headline and cool core heading into this morning's most-watched macro signal from CPI with the October FOMC decision on the line. FedSpeak has clearly pushed the market to back away from a hawkish view, today's data may force a change.

Headline CPI did indeed come hot in September - but as expected - at +0.6% MoM, which pulls it up 3.7% YoY (hotter than the 3.6% YoY exp)...

• The index for gasoline rose 9.1% in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index increased 5.2% over the month following a 2.1% increase in August. Electricity CPI rose 0.2% over the month. In contrast, the natural gas index decreased 0.3% in September.

• The shelter index rose 0.4% in September after rising 0.3% in August.

• The index for food was unchanged in September, as the index for food away from home increased 0.2% and the index for food at home fell 0.1%. It increased 2.5% over the last year.

  • Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased in September, while the other three indexes increased. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index decreased 0.5% over the month, as the beef index fell 1.0%. The index for other food at home decreased 0.2 percent in September. The dairy and related products index decreased 0.9% over the month, as the milk index declined 2.0%.

• The energy index increased 20.4% YoY due in large part to the index for gasoline rising 34.2% over the same period. The natural gas index increased 5.0% YoY and the electricity index rose 4.4% YoY.

Core CPI also printed hotter than expected, up 0.3% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp). That has pulled Core CPI up 2.6% YoY (above the expected 2.5%)...

Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care, and apparel. Conversely, the index for communication was among the small number of major indexes that decreased in September.

• Shelter CPI increased 0.4% MoM, after rising 0.3% in August.
  • Index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% in September, and the index for rent increased 0.2%.
  • Lodging away from home index rose 2.0% in September after rising 2.4% the previous month.

• Index for recreation increased 0.5% over the month after being unchanged in August.
• Used cars and trucks index rose 0.7% in September, and the education index increased 0.6%.
• New vehicles index, the personal care index, and the motor vehicle insurance index also increased over the month.
• Index for airline fares increased 1.2% in September, and the index for apparel rose 0.3%.
• The medical care index increased 0.1% in September after falling 0.2% in August. The index for hospital services rose 0.7% over the month.
• Prescription drugs index declined 1.2% in September.
• Index for physicians’ services was unchanged over the month.
• Communication CPI declined 0.2% in September after rising 2.3% in August.
• Index for household furnishings and operations was unchanged over the month.

Services was the big driver of Core's jump (with Shelter dominating)...

Both Goods and Services price gains accelerated in September...

But it was Energy that was the biggest driver of the jump...

With Fuel Oil (Diesel) prices exploding higher...

And that is only going to get worse!

The much-watched 'SuperCore' CPI also ticked up to +2.96% YoY...

With prices rising broadly...

Short-term annualized CPI remains energy-driven...

Worse still, this is why consumer sentiment is so low. Real wages continue to fall (for the sixth straight month) with a large drop last month...

Finally, expectations were for some modest volatility today relative to the last few CPI days...

...but the dismally low volume/liquidity of the last couple of days may exaggerate any move.

Rate-hike odds have soared to 50% for October...

The market is now pricing in at least 2 more hikes in 2027 (on top of 1.5 hikes in 2026)...

...and 2Y yields are spiking...

Christopher Hodge at Natixis confirms that these numbers put October in play:

“We had said that anything near consensus would not likely shift the narrative for the Fed for October, but this is far enough from consensus to make it a debate. We still think the Fed does not ultimately go – the arguments laid out by Williams and Jefferson suggests that there is no rush to tighten again right now, but today at least gives the hawks more ammo at the meeting.”

The bottom line is that this print signals reasonably broad-based price pressures too (not just energy). Prices for recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care, and apparel all increased. Some of that may be tariffs and the energy story, but some of it also suggest sticky inflation.

And that is what Warsh and his pals fear most... you can't "look through" that!

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 11:43

Cornell Bans Fraternity Parties Amid Gang Rape Allegations

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

Cornell University has banned parties at fraternity houses for the rest of the academic year amid a reopened investigation into an alleged rape on campus two years ago.

In an Oct. 13 statement, the university's president, Michael Kotlikoff, said "all parties and social events in Interfraternity Council (IFC) houses at Cornell will be suspended for the remainder of the 2026 - 2027 academic year." This, he said, gives "time for a thorough review of fraternity life at Cornell to determine whether and how it can safely continue."

Fraternities that hold in-house parties or events would be subject to an immediate emergency suspension.

Cornell has more than 20 active fraternities affiliated with its IFC. The Epoch Times has reached out to the IFC for comment.

It is unclear whether the new policy applies to off-campus gatherings and events.

Kotlikoff's statement comes less than two weeks after New York Attorney General Letitia James announced an investigation into an alleged gang rape of a woman by Cornell students in October 2024.

That woman, a Cornell student only known as Jane Doe, filed a lawsuit on Sept. 16 against the university, the Chi Phi fraternity, and others, alleging sexual assault and negligence. Cornell said that an internal probe led to some students being expelled, other students being suspended, and Chi Phi being kicked off campus. No students were criminally charged.

The woman was "plied with alcohol and drugs to the point of intoxication" at a fraternity house in Ithaca, New York, in October 2024, according to the lawsuit. She was "incapable of consenting" when coerced into taking drugs and forced to participate in sexual acts, the lawsuit stated. She reported the incident to campus police in November 2024.

Tompkins County District Attorney Matthew Van Houten reopened the investigation into the alleged rape after the suit was filed. The woman went to campus police but did not claim she was gang raped or drugged, he said in a statement on Sept. 28. Instead, she "described her participation in drug use and sexual conduct as voluntary, conscious, and consensual."

"Seeking justice sometimes requires us to reconsider or reopen cases when we are provided with additional evidence," Van Houten said at the time. "I have been asked by the community to revisit the decision whether to pursue criminal charges against the seven fraternity members. I have already begun that process, starting with our conversation with Jane Doe and her attorneys."

Cornell welcomed the renewed investigation into what allegedly happened. Kotlikoff said the Ivy League school would carry out reforms in response.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed James as special prosecutor to probe what occurred, removing Van Houten from the case.

The woman went to police and alleged she was raped, according to the governor during an Oct. 2 briefing.

"Yet, shockingly, those words never made it into the account that the Cornell police sent to prosecutors," Hochul said.

Van Houten supported the move and said he would cooperate with James.

"I support the appointment of Attorney General James and I trust that she will examine the facts and apply the law," he previously said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

Cornell has hired former Deputy U.S. Attorney General Sally Yates to lead an independent review of the school's response.

In his statement, Kotlikoff said there would be more staff to the Cornell Office of Civil Rights, "including the appointment of a dedicated case manager who will help individuals who report sexual misconduct navigate other university processes as needed."

He also said Cornell is working with the New York State Police to allow their criminal investigators, who are independent of the school, to investigate allegations of sexual assault on the campus.

Cornell will "accelerate the implementation of the recommendations of the Presidential Task Force on Sexual Assault and expand the scope and nature of the recommendations by engaging the campus community," according to Kotlikoff.

"These are first steps toward systemic change on our campus," he said. "We will take all necessary steps to address the conditions that led to Jane Doe's experiences, and those of other survivors.

"Cornell must be a place where safety is not an open question."

Kotlikoff's statement comes ahead of a faculty senate meeting where members are expected to vote on a measure expressing no confidence in the administration on its handling of sexual assault at the university.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 11:20

Netflix Makes Biggest Workforce Cut Since 2022

Following our reporting earlier this week that Netflix was preparing its first major workforce reduction since 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday morning, right before the US cash session, that the company is cutting 6% of its staff, or roughly 1,000 positions.

WSJ obtained an email that Co-CEOs Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos sent to employees earlier this morning, outlining plans to cut 6% of the workforce, or roughly 1,000 jobs. The cuts highlight mounting pressure from slowing growth and soft engagement growth after years of the streaming platform pushing unappealing, woke, toxic content.

"Our mission, to entertain the world, is ambitious, and delivering on it requires us to be disciplined about where we prioritize our people and resources," the executives wrote in the email.

The executives wrote that the company expects to meet its full-year earnings forecast and will continue investing aggressively in important areas while taking a cautious approach to staffing and spending decisions.

The workforce reduction follows a rough stretch for the stock. Shares are trading slightly higher at around $71.27 in premarket trading but down nearly 25% for the year as of Tuesday's close.

Last month, HSBC and Wells Fargo both downgraded Netflix over engagement concerns. HSBC's Mohammed Khallouf moved the stock to Hold from Buy and cut his price target to $76 from $96, citing YouTube's growing living-room presence and Netflix's falling share of US TV time. Wells Fargo's Steve Cahall cut his rating to Underweight from Equal Weight and his price target to $57 from $80, citing "worrying" engagement trends.

Nielsen's July Gauge put Netflix at 7.8% of US TV viewing against YouTube's 14.2%, TheWrap said. Reuters said the company is navigating a more competitive streaming market as media companies consolidate and YouTube takes a growing share of viewership and advertising spending.

Netflix's Latest Failure...

Meanwhile, the based streaming platform Angel Studios has doubled its subscription base from a year ago, topping 3 million last month.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 11:05

Nation's Largest Power Grid Declares Emergency As Hot Temps Collide With Maintenance Shutdowns

A short-lived heat blast across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic overlaps with scheduled power plant shutdowns for seasonal maintenance on PJM Interconnection's grid, which serves 67 million people from the Mid-Atlantic to Chicago. PJM was forced to declare a low-level emergency for Tuesday and Wednesday as 60 gigawatts of capacity remained offline.

Bloomberg reports that the squeeze sent spot power prices skyrocketing across PJM's Western hub to $1,021 per megawatt-hour Tuesday afternoon, more than double the day-ahead average for that hour. Day-ahead prices for Wednesday jumped 28% to $295.83 per megawatt-hour, the highest daily average since mid-July. 

"Unpredictable weather patterns are providing fewer days to perform important maintenance or construction on the generation and transmission equipment serving our footprint," PJM spokesman Jeffrey Shields told the outlet in an email.

Scheduled shutdowns of power plants or transmission equipment for inspections, repairs, and upgrades during seasonally low demand come as volatile weather tests the grid's reliability.

Delaying repairs can leave aging power plants more vulnerable to breakdowns during peak demand hours, especially when heating demand soars in the middle of winter. 

"Unseasonably warm temperatures combined with generation outages and lower-than-normal wind generation are creating challenging grid conditions," Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) spokeswoman McKenzie Barbknecht told the outlet. MISO's service area covers parts of 15 US states across the Midwest and South, plus Manitoba, Canada.

Beyond PJM's grid strain this week, lingering concerns about reliability persist and merely suggest the grid has less room for error this winter: 

• A shrinking supply buffer: PJM's outlook for winter 2025–26 projected a reserve margin of 7,500 megawatts after expected outages, exports and other adjustments, down from 8,700 megawatts the previous winter. PJM warned that electricity demand was growing faster than new generation. 
• Power plants failing during extreme cold blasts:  During January 2026's Winter Storm Fern and its aftermath, generation outages averaged 18 to 19 gigawatts, exceeding PJM's seasonal expectations. Equipment failures were the leading cause.
• Fuel availability and scheduling: Tight NatGas supplies and limited scheduling complicated operations during that cold blast. PJM maintained reliability, but preserving adequate supplies required additional measures and substantial costs.

At the start of the week, the US Department of Energy issued an emergency order directing PJM to dispatch specified generating units and operate them as needed to maintain reliability through mid-month.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 10:35

Houthi Missile On Riyadh Wounds Residents, As IMF Chief Warns Of Spillover 'For Everybody, Everywhere'

Wednesday has witnessed another Houthi ballistic missile attack targeting Saudi Arabia's capital. The kingdom's civil defense spokesman has confirmed bystanders were injured when missile debris from an inbound rocket fell after it was intercepted over Riyadh.

"The incident resulted in injury to an Arab resident and limited material damage to a residential building and a vehicle," stated the spokesman, as quoted by state SPA news agency.

A later update included more casualties: "Saudi Arabia's civil defense agency said on Wednesday that four people – two women, a man and a child – were wounded by debris from two intercepted Houthi cruise missiles in the capital and that 15 homes were damaged."

via Al Jazeera/Reuters

Saudi coalition spokesman Turki Al-Malki had separately written on X, "Interception and destruction of a ballistic missile launched by the terrorist Houthi militia towards Riyadh."

AFP journalists had cited loud explosions heard in the capital at the time of the attack, with emergency messages issued by authorities warning people on cell phones of an "aerial threat" and urging them to take shelter.

Saudi Arabia has faced widening Houthi strikes, which have now become daily since ramping up over the past week, in connection with the raging ground war in Yemen, focused on the Red Sea coast.

Last weekend saw two unprecedented strikes on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh which killed 13 people and left hundreds injured.

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, warned that these worsening attacks on Saudi Arabia could impact people "everywhere".

"The Saudi economy is important for the region and the world, and in that sense, these developments have potentially negative spillovers for everybody, everywhere," Georgieva stated at a news conference during the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok.

One regional outlet has tallied that over a dozen countries have outright suspended flight services to Saudi Arabia, amid the Houthi 'war on the airports' - which has left major Saudi hubs shuttered for at least through the rest of this week:

At least 17 airlines from 13 countries have suspended or canceled flights to Saudi Arabia as of 13 October following Yemeni strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport.

Close to 1,500 flight-cancellation listings were recorded across Saudi Arabia’s major airports on 11 and 12 October, according to Flightradar24 data reviewed by Gulf Business. Riyadh alone lost 98 percent of its scheduled traffic on Sunday, with 655 cancellations.

Tuesday evening into the overnight hours also saw a rare Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco's administrative headquarters in the kingdom's east. It resulted in a "limited fire" - the company said.

Some independent analysts have pointed out the Houthis are an ally of Iran, not a proxy...

Tehran has twice urged Ansarallah to accept a ceasefire with Saudi Arabia and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also offered to mediate. Tehran appears to be prioritising regional stability and de-escalation, while Ansarallah insists that its military position will not be used as a bargaining chip for Iranian interests.

— Bushra Shaikh (@Bushra1Shaikh) October 13, 2026

All of this puts more pressure on the Trump White House to respond, at a moment Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to be urging greater military support. So far the US has stayed on the sidelines related to the Yemen conflict, other than providing intelligence assistance. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 10:20

Bill Gates Fearmongers "Grim" AI Cyberattack Surprises

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Bill Gates returned to the Sunday-show circuit this week with a fresh round of alarms about artificial intelligence, telling CNN's Jake Tapper that the technology is "more dangerous than any" cars, planes, or drugs and that "grim possibilities" await if society fails to maintain control.

Speaking on State of the Union, the Microsoft co-founder and described AI as "the most dangerous technology humans ever invented." He predicted that "over the next year, primarily in the cyber area, we are going to have a lot of negative surprises" once "bad people" strip safeguards from the latest models.

The real near-term danger, he said, is not AI "getting out of control" - that remains "years away" - but criminals using the tools for extortion, stock-market disruption, or similar schemes that already have proven business models.

Just as we regulate planes, cars, and medicines, we need safeguards that help us realize AI's incredible potential while reducing the risks. They won't eliminate every harm, but they can help prevent misuse by bad actors. We're not where we need to be yet - and this deserves much more of our attention.

— Bill Gates (@BillGates) October 11, 2026

Tapper pressed him on earlier statements in which Gates had called AI "aliens created in a lab" that could "evolve almost as a species of its own" and become to humans "what we are to dogs or cats," labeling the shift an "evolutionary event."

? Bill Gates says AI is the "most dangerous technology humans ever invented" and "over the next year it will become quite obvious" regulations are needed https://t.co/gvfkYJUDLO

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) October 13, 2026

Gates replied that the arrival of AI is "fantastic" for health care and new tools, yet "this changes the world more than all previous technologies... and we got to get everyone on the same page about what a big deal this is."

When Tapper raised OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's warnings against "the trap of doomerism," Gates answered that "all responsible AI leaders, including Sam Altman, including Dario Amodei, they are telling the world, 'This is very concerning.'"

He conceded that claims of imminent existential risk can go "too far," but insisted the comparison to regulated domains still holds: AI is more dangerous, and the middle ground of sensible oversight has not yet been found. On the absence of an FAA- or FDA-style body, he said, "I think, over the next year, we will move beyond self-governance... it's clear we're not doing enough."

He added that he has "heard from a number of politicians" and is "hopeful" for a meeting with President Trump.

Gates has repeatedly flagged bioterrorism as a parallel risk. In the CNN interview he noted that the chance of a bioterrorist attack is now "50 times the risk of a natural pandemic" and that safeguards against it can currently be stripped out the same way cyber protections can.

Days later, MI5 Director General Sir Ken McCallum issued a parallel warning in his annual threat assessment. He said AI is "already supercharging the cybersecurity contest between attackers and defenders" and that "the misuse case to which I'd attach greatest weight" is AI's "potential to change the stakes on existing or even new bioweapons."

BREAKING: MI5 chief warns artificial intelligence 'may lead terrorists to develop deadly biological weapons'. https://t.co/2GbFWVV2fb

— GB News (@GBNEWS) October 13, 2026

McCallum added that the threat is "not yet realised" but that comparatively low-sophistication actors could gain a capability uplift if guardrails fail, giving them access to knowledge about chemical, biological, or radiological weapons that has long been hard for terrorists to obtain.

He announced a new AI Threat Assessment Centre inside MI5 to track both the opportunities and the risks. GB News reported that AI is "supercharging" security threats to the UK while MI5 deals with a fourfold increase over the past decade in cases involving hostile states, primarily from Russia, Iran and China.

AI 'supercharging' security threats to the UK.GB News' @forster_k MI5 is dealing with a fourfold increase over the past decade in cases involving hostile states, primarily from Russia, Iran and China. ?? GB News on YouTube: https://t.co/Wa58gYGZwF https://t.co/sCmYia41Dh

— GB News (@GBNEWS) October 13, 2026

The appearance fits a pattern established weeks earlier. In a September Meet the Press interview, Gates told Kristen Welker that AI is "certainly powerful enough to drive events that, you know, cause a billion deaths" and that "there's never been a weapon as powerful as the combination of people with ill intent using the latest AI tools."

He rejected self-regulation outright: "No one thinks self-regulation is enough... You need law enforcement and the politicians to get into the discussion about what safeguards and monitoring look like."

In other settings he has called AI "almost an evolutionary event" and "kind of like this alien intelligence," arguing that governments are "way behind" and that an international organization modeled on nuclear inspections, aviation rules, and ozone treaties is required. Industry, he has said, should not police itself.

The timing overlaps with reporting that executives at OpenAI, Anthropic, and other labs have been privately gaming out "day after" scenarios for a catastrophic AI-linked event - most likely a cyberattack capable of disrupting financial services, internet connectivity, or power and water.

Axios reported that many insiders believe such an incident could occur within six to twelve months. OpenAI confirmed it runs preparedness exercises but said the scenarios are not treated as inevitable; Anthropic declined comment.

Nicolas Hulscher highlighted the sequence on X, noting that Gates's prediction of "a lot of NEGATIVE SURPRISES" from AI cyberattacks arrived days after the labs were revealed to be war-gaming public backlash.

BREAKING: Bill Gates claims "over the next year, we are going to have a lot of NEGATIVE SURPRISES" from AI cyberattacks.Just 2 days ago, OpenAI and Anthropic were revealed to be PRIVATELY WAR-GAMING the fallout from AI cyberattacks.AI false flag risk is now VERY HIGH. https://t.co/kP78qr7v3q

— Nicolas Hulscher, MPH (@NicHulscher) October 11, 2026

Gates has also floated taxing AI or robot usage and legally reserving certain roles - childcare, judges, jurors - for humans so that "human empathy remains relevant." He continues to argue that the depth of understanding inside governments is too low and that only neutral public actors can set the required monitoring and non-removable safeguards.

At the same time, the Gates Foundation has committed a billion dollars over two years to expand AI tools in education, health, and agriculture in places markets would otherwise ignore.

The latest round of warnings arrives while the Trump administration has prioritized winning the AI race and has signed voluntary accords with leading companies rather than imposing the heavier statutory regime Gates prefers.

Gates himself says the extreme of "let's completely stop this" is no better than no safeguards at all, yet his consistent message is that self-governance is already failing and that more centralized oversight must arrive within the next year. Security services are now publicly echoing the bioterror dimension of those warnings.

Whether those "negative surprises" materialize as ordinary cybercrime scaled by new tools, or as something the labs are already rehearsing responses for, the push for external control continues from the same quarters that previously framed AI as an alien intelligence requiring unprecedented global coordination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 10:05

$20 Billion In Suspicious Biden-Era Climate Grants Remains Frozen As Trump Administration Eyes Supreme Court Fight

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

A $20 billion Biden-era climate grant program remains frozen despite a federal appeals court ruling against the Trump administration's efforts to cancel the funding. The case could wind up at the Supreme Court in a showdown over taxpayer spending and executive authority.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled 6-4 on Aug. 4 that the Environmental Protection Agency likely violated federal law when it attempted to terminate grants authorized under the Inflation Reduction Act.

However, the court subsequently agreed to keep the money frozen through Nov. 9 while the administration prepares a potential Supreme Court appeal.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin canceled the grants in March 2025, citing concerns about conflicts of interest and potential self-dealing among recipients. Climate United, the largest beneficiary, was awarded approximately $7 billion.

Jason Isaac, CEO of the American Energy Institute, urged the Supreme Court to intervene.

"The Biden administration rushed $20 billion in taxpayer money into the hands of politically connected organizations, creating what looks like a taxpayer-funded slush fund for its climate agenda," Isaac told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The grants were part of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, established to finance clean energy projects through nonprofit organizations.

Travis Fisher, director of energy and environmental policy studies at the Cato Institute, criticized the government's reliance on subsidies.

"Resource-neutral permitting reform is superior to subsidies and grants because it advances energy projects without the government picking winners and losers," Fisher said.

Environmental groups defended the program, arguing that withholding the money prevents investments that could reduce energy costs.

The legal dispute also follows Congress' repeal of the provision establishing the program through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 09:25

The post Trump’s Not So Hot Economy: China’s Growth Far Outpaces US appeared first on CEPR.

Futures Rise Ahead Of Hot CPI As Houthis Torch Aramco HQ, ASML Beat Fails To Revive Chip Trade

US futures are higher, with small caps leading and tech lagging, as traders brace for what is expected to be the hottest monthly CPI print since the spring, digest more escalation in the Gulf after Yemen's Houthis hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters and vowed more strikes on Saudi airports and oil facilities, and count down to Anthropic's pre-IPO investor day which one strategist warns "will move the entire market"; as a result oil is grinding higher while the bond rout takes another breather with the 10Y sliding to 5.20%. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.2% higher at 7,872 while Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% and Dow futures are up 0.4%; Russell 2000 contracts are up 0.3%.On Tuesday the S&P closed fractionally lower (-0.02%) as the Philly semi index posted a fifth straight drop - its longest losing streak since July - and the KBW Banks index slid 1.4% with all 24 members lower on day one of bank earnings. In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher led by Alphabet, BlackRock jumps after pulling in $205 billion in new money, while Bank of America slips after a $1.21 billion money-laundering fine (as we reported yesterday) and an equities trading miss; memory names are again under pressure (MU -1.4%, SNDK -2.3%), extending the memory meltdown, even as ASML's beat-and-raise sparked a modest rally in Europe.  The day's driver is CPI: consensus expects headline to jump 0.6% M/M and 3.6% Y/Y - the biggest monthly advance in five months on the back of surging gasoline prices - with core seen at 0.2%, while swaps price roughly 24% odds of a quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 FOMC, meaning that the print "mostly decides December". Treasuries are slightly richer, with yields down about 1bp across the front-end and belly and the 10Y at 5.20%, dragged lower by a rally in gilts after BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill cast doubt on market pricing of four hikes by next summer and the FT reported Chancellor Healey will fund budget giveaways with taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing. The Bloomberg dollar index is little changed, while the Aussie is the best G-10 performer after blowout Chinese trade data. In commodities, WTI has swung between gains and losses and was last up around 1.6% as traders weigh the latest Middle East hostilities, after the IEA warned diesel supplies will remain constrained well into 2027 and OECD government oil stocks hit the lowest since 1989; gold slips 0.4% to $4,144 and silver drops over 1% to its lowest since August, while copper is firmer. Bitcoin is flat around $83,000. US economic data slate includes MBA mortgage applications (already out: -2.7%) and September CPI (8:30am); the Fed releases its Beige Book at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (1:30pm), Goolsbee (3pm) and Bowman (10:55pm). The Treasury sells $75 billion in 17-week bills at 11:30am.

In premarket trading, Alphabet leads Magnificent 7 peers higher a day after Google's Gemini 4 Argon was made available for developers and enterprises: Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.9%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.5%, Apple (AAPL) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.2%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.2%, Tesla (TSLA) little changed.

• Albemarle (ALB) rises 3% after Mizuho raised its recommendation to buy on lithium demand.
  Bank of America (BAC) falls 4% after its stock and fixed-income traders missed estimates as the bank’s results were also hurt by a charge tied to regulatory penalties over money laundering and sanctions violations.
• BlackRock (BLK) jumps 4% after the asset manager pulled in $205 billion of new money in the third quarter and revenue surged.
• Brinker International (EAT) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the restaurant operator to buy, noting the firm’s transition from “turnaround into a durable, compounding story.”
• Enovix (ENVX) spikes 8% after the advanced lithium-ion battery manufacturer announced a purchase order from a multinational provider of dual-use drone systems.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE -4%), Dell (DELL -2%) and NetApp (NTAP -3%) decline after Barclays downgraded all the names to equal-weight, citing the recent “significant” stock run and a more cautious approach on the stocks given the enterprise spending environment.
• Liquidia (LQDA) soars 40% after reaching a global settlement resolving all pending litigation with United Therapeutics.

In other corporate news, Bank of America was fined more than $1.21 billion for money laundering and sanctions violations by US regulators, who said the bank "effectively outsourced" a key part of its compliance efforts as it sought to protect revenue (it then reported 3Q equities trading revenue ex-DVA of $2.51 billion, short of the $2.63 billion estimate, so not the best morning in Charlotte); BofA is also no longer part of the potential roster of banks working on Moonshot AI's IPO as the Chinese AI darling faces scrutiny in the US. Palliser Capital wants Samsung Electronics to list shares in the US and use the proceeds to buy back preferred stock. Galderma agreed to buy ZO Skin Health for an enterprise value of $1.5 billion in an all-cash deal. OpenAI is in early talks to buy security startup Trail of Bits, The Information reported - which comes a day after an OpenAI employee was arrested for planting a recording device in one of its offices. SentinelOne brought a $1.25 billion zero-coupon convertible to market, Sierra Space's CFO has left after about six months in the role, Nvidia committed $250 million to UK agentic safety research over five years, and the EU is set to lift a sanction on a Chinese firm to save an ASML supplier.

Stock futures are edging higher as traders await inflation data, more bank earnings and an even bigger catalyst in the form of Anthropic's pre-IPO investor day in San Francisco, where the company is set to disclose new revenue numbers to a select group of investors. Investors are already getting more selective on the AI trade: ASML had a subdued reaction to a solid headline print, while Applied Materials sank after its results lacked detailed guidance, pointing to high expectations for the picks and shovels part of the technology. Meanwhile, after another day in which tech was wrecked again as AI credit cracks widened, the median stock is 16% below its 52-week high - the weakest breadth since the Dotcom Bubble according to Goldman's Prime desk - or as BTIG put it, the Mag 7 is all that's left holding up the index.

"When word gets out about the revenue run rate, it will move the entire market," said Jonestrading's Mike O'Rourke. "The investment community wants to know whether Anthropic is going public from a position of strength or weakness."

There's also a distinction emerging between the cost of compute (expensive) and the cost of intelligence (falling fast). "If AI follows the path of previous general-purpose technologies, the price of the technology itself will trend towards marginal cost, while value migrates to whatever is built on top," said Northern Trust's Gary Paulin.

 

As for CPI, Bloomberg Economics expects September headline to accelerate to 3.7% as gasoline prices rise, with core edging up to 2.5%, but sees the pickup as "mostly a story of localized hot spots, not broad-based price pressures," leaving the Fed room to stay patient; Goldman expects core at 0.24% (vs 0.2% consensus) and headline at 0.59%, while DB's economists see core at just 0.16%. Whatever the number, the options market is barely paying attention: option event premium suggests CPI is likely a non-event, with the SPX implied swing around 0.5% - as Goldman's Gail Hafif notes, the 52bp straddle is "one of the lowest CPI straddles we've seen this year." Our full preview is here.

“Headline inflation remains elevated, but as long as we don’t get something like 1.0% month-on-month, markets should be able to absorb the print quite well,” said Bank of New York Mellon strategist Geoffrey Yu. “The challenge is if core inflation is elevated.”

Option event premium suggests the event is likely a non-event for the market.  The real stress, however, remains in bonds, not stocks: the MOVE index of Treasury volatility at 101 has climbed about 20 points over a month while the VIX at 15 sits in the calm band, and Fidelity's chief investment strategist Salman Ahmed says the 10Y could still climb to 6% (more on that below). Meanwhile, day one of bank earnings was messier than the headline beats suggested: JPMorgan posted a surprise drop in fixed income trading revenue and Goldman missed in credit and rates, and per Goldman sector specialist Christian DeGrasse, bank shares are taking their cues from semiconductors and rates rather than anything lenders themselves have said, with CET1 ratios at JPM and Wells down 30bp on the quarter and JPM's buyback slowing to about $1 billion from $6.7 billion. The S&P 500 banks index is down about 7.5% over the past month.

JPM's Market Intel desk (Andrew Tyler's team) remains Tactically Bullish and notes that after five straight down sessions in the SOX, ASML's beat-and-raise drew a positive stock reaction "but didn't restart the broader Semis / Memory trade"; with tech front and center, the desk says to watch for a possible squeeze post-CPI. JPM's Feroli sees headline at 0.55% M/M (3.6% Y/Y) and core at 0.18% (2.4% Y/Y), a print that "should be enough to keep the bond market from re-pricing an October hike." On banks, JPM's financials specialist Rob O'Dwyer says the universal feedback on the sector's weakness is "head scratching, which tends to suggest that price action is driven by quants and passive flow" - in his view a reason to fade the move and buy the group. The desk's bank earnings read-through was unambiguously bullish on the consumer: card spending grew 10% Y/Y at JPM and 13% at Citi, while delinquencies and net credit losses are falling at C and WFC.

Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky says he "can't remember a time when the frontier was quite so competitive" and is "increasingly conscious that the limiting factor may not be demand, but our willingness and ability to finance and deliver the supply." Goldman's London TMT desk called this morning "a test just how bearish the market has become on AI and semiconductors", with sentiment "caught in a bearish feedback loop" - ASML's own warning that capacity growth of "30% in 2027, 30% in 2028 will not allow us to meet our customer demand" is hardly the stuff of an AI bust. In New York, Peter Callahan notes that Mag 7 has outperformed the NDX for eight straight sessions while Semis lag the market by ~8 points over their five-day losing streak, adding: "As if we needed another reminder that the 'index' often doesn't tell the whole story anymore."

In France, the OAT-Bund spread is holding around 137bp after narrowing on Tuesday, as ECB President Lagarde said "the primary and first solution lies in French fiscal policy" when asked about French debt, while National Rally leader Le Pen told the FT she has the "will and conviction" to cut France's contribution to the EU budget and wants the ECB to be able to finance borrowing for priorities such as defence and the energy transition (more on the Le Pen shadow budget here).

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.5% at 638.60 as the earnings season gathers pace, with chip-equipment maker ASML buoying the tech sector after its sales outlook exceeded expectations. Real estate tops the sector pile, followed by tech and consumer products & services, while autos, insurance and banks lag; per JPM, homebuilders and luxury are among the best performing baskets. Here are the biggest European movers:

• ASML shares rise as much as 3.6% after the semiconductor equipment maker gave a strong demand outlook, saying customers are expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030.
• Aker BP shares rise 2.5% after the Norwegian oil company reported average production for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Technip Energies gains as much as 2.3% after UBS upgrades the engineering company to buy from neutral, arguing that a record backlog and margin recovery will likely turn around sentiment.
• Bossard shares rise as much as 5% after the Swiss logistics company's third-quarter sales beat the average analyst estimate, supported by organic growth in Asia.
• Big Yellow rises as much as 6.3% after activist investor Ancora said it holds a more than 4% stake and released a presentation urging the UK-listed company's board to launch a strategic review, including a full sale process.
• Lonza shares rise as much as 2.7% after the Swiss drug ingredients maker gave mid-term guidance at its capital markets day that included a new target for Ebitda margin in the high-30s.
• Ashmore shares rise as much as 3.4% after the emerging-market fund manager's first-quarter update showed assets under management slightly ahead of estimates and gross redemptions at the lowest quarterly level in over 15 years.
• SEB shares fall as much as 5.7% after the lender said it expects the Swedish regulator's ruling that its Internal Ratings-Based credit risk models are deficient to temporarily reduce capital buffers by about 120 basis points.
• Softcat shares fall as much as 8.5%. The software reseller reiterated its recently-upgraded guidance for Ebit growth through fiscal year 2027, though analysts note that it lags both consensus expectations and prior years' performance.
• Orsted drops as much as 4.4% after the US Justice Department asked a federal court to remand the Interior Department's approval of a construction and operations plan for the Danish firm's Revolution Wind project.

Asian stocks ended mixed after an early tech-led rebound faded: the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.7% before erasing gains to trade 0.1% lower, as "ASML's earnings and supply outlook comments weighed on regional semiconductor sentiment during afternoon trading" per Goldman's Asia desk. The Kospi, which had been up more than 1% after Tuesday's 5.5% crash, closed 0.4% lower, the Nikkei was flat (-0.05%) and the Topix fell 0.3%. Taiwan's Taiex led with a 0.6% gain, while the Hang Seng slipped 0.1% even as the Hang Seng Tech index rose 0.9% after China's September trade surplus hit a record $133.5 billion, with exports up 36.3% (vs 25.5% expected) and imports up 31%. Mainland China lagged, with the CSI 300 down 1.4% and turnover back near year-to-date lows, while Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.6%. In Japan, Olympus tumbled 13.5% on an FDA warning.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed and the DXY is stuck in a 102.07-102.23 range, initially pressured by Fed's Williams' dovish remarks before a bounce in oil and the Houthi threats brought it back to unchanged. The Australian dollar is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.4% against the greenback on the strong China trade data, while havens CHF and JPY are the slight underperformers given the risk tone; USD/JPY is at 158.2. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1206 and GBP/USD at 1.3264 as UK budget coverage ramps up ahead of the Oct. 28 Autumn Budget.

In rates, Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve, with front and belly leading marginal gains, supported by a wider rally across European bonds after dovish comments from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill. US yields are richer by up to 1bp across the front-end and belly, with the 5s30s spread about 1bp steeper and the 10Y at 5.205%, as gilts outperform by about 3bp in the sector; UK 10-year yields fall 5bp to 5.40% after Pill cast doubt on market pricing of four hikes by next summer (at least someone at the BoE is pushing back on the market, rather than the other way around). Bunds are about 10 ticks firmer while the OAT-Bund spread holds at 137bp. Ahead of CPI, swaps price around 6bp of tightening for the Oct. 28 meeting, or roughly 24% odds of a quarter-point move, and around 80bp of hikes over the next year. The IG dollar issuance slate is empty so far after eight names priced almost $15 billion on Tuesday, paying about 5bp in new-issue concessions on deals that were 2.8x covered.

"Tactically speaking, we still see a scenario where this can go to 6%," Fidelity's Salman Ahmed said of the 10-year yield in a Bloomberg TV interview; at that level, "you have to take a pulse check." Fidelity's models are starting to see value around 5%, "but you do need higher yields to compensate for that positive equity/bond correlation, which was working in favor of bonds before."

In commodities, oil has been volatile, with WTI swinging between gains and declines as traders weigh the latest Middle East hostilities and last up around 1.6%, after trading in a $93.97-95.41 range earlier; Brent hovers around $106 within a $105.21-107.15 range. Yemen's Houthis said operations against Saudi airports and oil facilities will continue after hitting Aramco's executive headquarters in Dhahran, while Iranian press reported that a vessel sank in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine. The IEA's monthly report warned that diesel supplies will remain constrained well into 2027, OECD government oil stockpiles fell to the lowest since at least December 1989, and 2026 global oil demand will fall by 2.6m b/d; it also cut its 2027 demand forecast to 104.4m b/d from 105.0m b/d. Dutch TTF gas is firmer but off a €87.44/MWh high. Spot gold is down 0.4% at about $4,144 in a $4,141-4,170 range, silver is down over 1% to its lowest since August, and copper is firmer on the strong Chinese data, though it eased after BHP's Escondida mine reached a preliminary agreement with its union to avoid a strike.

US economic data slate includes MBA mortgage applications (already out: -2.7%) and September CPI (8:30am); the Fed releases its Beige Book at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (1:30pm), Goolsbee (3pm) and Bowman (10:55pm). On the earnings front, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Progressive, State Street and Fastenal report before the open, and Anthropic holds its pre-IPO investor day in San Francisco.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz as it seeks to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterm elections, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters. RTRS
• Oil edged higher as attacks on Saudi Aramco's headquarters added to a flare-up in the Middle East conflict, increasing uncertainty over a recovery in Persian Gulf energy flows. BBG
• Yemeni Army Spokesperson said operations towards Saudi airports and oil facilities will continue in the coming days and warned for global shipping companies, civilians and workers to evacuate such airports and firms, as they are legitimate targets. Newsquawk
• Diesel supplies will remain constrained well into 2027 as a result of conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, despite a weaker outlook for oil consumption, while OECD government oil stockpiles fell to the lowest since at least December 1989, the IEA said. BBG
• ASML boosted its outlook and said it's searching for ways to produce more chip-making machines over the next two years to meet soaring AI demand. Shares rose. BBG
• Anthropic is to disclose new revenue numbers at pre-IPO investor day today: CNBC, citing sources
• It is not clear that the Bank of England will need to raise its key rate by a full percentage point in order to tame inflation, as investors expect, Chief Economist Huw Pill said Wednesday. WSJ
• China's trade momentum gained pace in September – driven by strong global tech demand and a pre-holiday shipping rush ahead of the "golden week" break – logging a monthly high for its trade surplus in 2026 and putting the country on course for another record gap this year. SCMP
• China's consumer and producer inflation both accelerated last month, with factory gate prices rising their fastest since 2022. SCMP
• Singapore's central bank unexpectedly held off on further tightening as year-over-year economic growth slowed in the third quarter but beat forecasts. The Monetary Authority of Singapore said Wednesday that its existing policy settings would allow the Singapore dollar to keep strengthening, helping to counter an expected near-term rise in import prices and ease inflationary pressures in 2027. WSJ
• Japan's largest banks and insurance companies have been buying domestic government bonds and selling foreign debt in recent months, in moves that investors say could be early signs of a wider repatriation of capital by the country's institutions. FT
• Russia said it attacked Ukrainian electricity plants in a "massive strike" overnight, further undermining Donald Trump's claim of an energy truce between the two countries. BBG
• Bank of America was fined more than $1.2 billion for money laundering and sanctions violations by US regulators. Equities divisions at five of the largest US banks are on track to deliver more than $66 billion of revenue in the first nine months of the year, roughly $3 billion higher than what's expected from units handling bonds, currencies and commodities. BBG
• Fed Governor Cook's lawyer denounced the Trump administration's new investigation and said she will not be able to attend the hearing on November 5th: The New York Times
• The head of the IMF said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to grow the economy out of its mounting debt and fiscal deficit problems won't work fast enough. BBG
• US President Trump said Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of gas coming off the Alaska pipeline and is to invest USD 4.4 billion in the project, on top of the USD 50bln South Korea committed to invest. Newsquawk
• As we wade into earnings season, we expect corporates to progressively exit blackout ~1-2 days post release. We estimate ~10% will be in open window by the end of the week and 48% by the end of the month. November is the 2nd highest month of corporate repurchases on our desk and will bring back a key source of demand to the marketplace. The full force of corporates won't pick up until almost the end of this month, so the market still has a bit to go before this flow reaches its peak formidability. GIR
• Goldman estimates AI price pressures are boosting core PCE by about 45bp, peaking at around 50bp by end-2026 and falling to 10bp by end-2027, and says "the impact of AI demand on inflation is meaningful but moderate, still comes in large part from mismeasurement, and is likely near its peak." GIR

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed as the region clawed back some of the recent tech-related losses, while participants also digested key releases from China, including inflation and trade figures. ASX 200 declined with the index dragged lower by underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector, while sentiment amongst miners was not helped by the indecision in Rio Tinto following its quarterly production update. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 68,000 level as tech stocks got some reprieve from recent selling. KOSPI was among the biggest gainers as tech rebounded from the recent underperformance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were flat as participants digested a slew of data, including stronger-than-expected trade figures and mixed inflation numbers in which CPI printed softer-than-expected, while PPI was hot and showed a faster-than-anticipated acceleration in factory gate prices.

Top Asian News

• China's Customs Vice Minister said in the first three quarters, China's foreign trade has effectively dealt with various external shocks and China's foreign trade has kept good development momentum, while it has shown resilience despite rising international changes, risks and challenges. However, the official also stated that China's trade development still faces many challenges, and for full-year trade, there are many uncertainties globally, including geopolitical conflicts.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) are firmer across the board, with outperformance in the AEX (+0.9%), following positive ASML (+1.6%) earnings. The Co. reported Q3 top- and bottom-line beats, while also lifting its Q4 and FY guidance. In the prepared remarks, the CEO highlighted that the planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand and are looking at ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase previously communicated. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Real Estate tops the sector pile, with Tech and Consumer Products & Services following closely behind. The sector laggards include Autos, Insurance and Banks. US equity futures are broadly firmer, with the NQ flat. More bank earnings to report, with BofA on deck. Outside of earnings, US CPI is expected to tick higher to 3.6% (prev. 3.4%). Pointing to UST positioning, traders are short with BofA FMS pointing to this being a crowded trade. A dovish surprise could see a large unwind of this positioning and can also support the equity space. ASML (ASML NA) Q3 2026 (EUR): Basic EPS 12.95 (exp. 10.68), Revenue 11.66bln (exp. 11.58bln). Q4 guidance: Net Sales 14.2-15.2bln (exp. 14bln). FY guidance: Total net sales 44-45bln (exp. 43.6bln, prev. guided 43-45bln).

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Healey is to target online marketplaces in a GBP 1bln tax crackdown, in which the UK plans to make them responsible for collecting tax owed by retailers selling on their platforms, according to The Times.
• UK Chancellor Healey is expected to pay for new giveaways in this month's budget, with higher taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing, according to FT
• UK Chancellor Healey is reportedly making plans to cut the cost of hiring under-25-year-olds at the UK Budget, according to CityAM citing sources.
• The EU Commission proposed a one-year delay to the implementation of specific provisions of the EU Methane Regulation related to importers.
• French National Rally (RN) leader Le Pen sees the extraordinary political events of late-2026 and 2027 as ushering in significant European change, the FT reported. The report added that Le Pen thinks EU Commission President von der Leyen no longer has the confidence of many EU governments and describes the EU attempt to agree a seven-year budget before the French Presidential election as "deeply objectionable". Furthermore, Le Pen has the "will and conviction" to cut France's contribution to the EU budget, adding that the heavy European debt burden is more of a concern than any French-EU clash over fiscal contributions. To end, Le Pen added that she wants the ECB to be able to finance borrowing for priorities such as defence and the energy transition.
• Spanish PM Sanchez is expected to hold an "intense" debate at the European Council over migration, Politico reported citing sources, Sanchez expected to be combative with Italian PM Meloni on the issue.
• Italian PM Meloni said they see a deal with the EU being close on measures to cut the impact of gas costs on electricity prices.

FX

• DXY was initially under mild pressure following on from the dovish remarks from Fed's Williams and as crude benchmarks moved lower in early morning trade. However, a bounce back in oil prices and hawkish commentary from the Houthis has allowed the index to sit around the unchanged mark, within a 102.07 to 102.23 range. To recap that announcement, the group warned that it will continue operations towards Saudi airports/oil facilities in the coming days; it also warned global shipping companies.
• G10s are mixed against the USD, vs initial gains across all majors early doors. The Antipodeans remain the outperformers, on the back of stronger-than-expected Chinese Export data, and with Chinese CPI Y/Y rising from the prior, albeit less than expected. The broader positive risk tone across markets is also facilitating the strength in Antipodeans today. Typical havens (CHF and JPY) are the slight underperformers this morning, given the broader risk tone.
• GBP and EUR are both essentially flat. For the former, UK press have been boosting their coverage ahead of the Autumn Budget (Oct 28th). The Times reported that UK Chancellor Healey is expected to pay for new giveaways in this month's budget, with higher taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing. This will offer investors some confidence on the fiscal side of things. Elsewhere, UK Chancellor Healey is to target online marketplaces in a GBP 1bln tax crackdown, in which the UK plans to make them responsible for collecting tax owed by retailers selling on their platforms.

Central Banks

• Fed's Collins (2028 voter) said tightening monetary policy will help return inflation to 2%, and she expects the Fed to raise interest rates 'a bit further' by the end of the year, while she expects inflation to stay above 2% due to high energy prices. Furthermore, she supported the Fed raising rates at the September meeting and stated the future path of monetary policy in the new year will depend on data.
• ECB's Lagarde said inflation has been rising predominantly, but not exclusively as a result of energy prices, while she noted that they are not seeing any second-round effects yet and they cannot wait until they are in full view, but can anticipate and look for hints. Furthermore, she responded that the primary and first solution lies in French fiscal policy when asked about French debt, and stated that growth is not brilliant, but 1.1% growth in 2026 is not bad.
• ECB's Wunsch said they are probably going to have to hike again, but he's not making any bets because they have so much uncertainty on the energy front and maybe also in AI, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB's Moulin said inflation is mainly due to conflict in the Middle East and energy-related, while he added that inflation expectations by corporates and households in the medium term are well anchored. Moulin also stated that a rise in yields may affect demand and prompt a more moderate response to an inflation shock.
• BoE Governor Bailey said UK companies are focusing intensely on containing costs amid surging energy prices caused by the Iran war, while he reiterated that broader UK inflation pressure from the energy shock has remained subdued so far.
• BoE Chief Economist Pill said he is somewhat more sceptical of market pricing for four rate hikes over the next year.
• Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its FX-based policy settings unchanged, with the rate of appreciation of the policy band maintained (exp. very slight tightening), while it made no changes to the width and level the band is centred. MAS said Singapore's economy is expected to continue expanding steadily in the quarters ahead and core inflation should remain slightly elevated in the immediate quarters ahead, but is projected to ease discernibly from the middle of next year.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer, but only modestly so, in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of US CPI this afternoon, which will be scoured for insight into near-term Fed bets. A cool print could add to the dovish move seen after the September NFP report, and thus further push back on end-2026 tightening bets. Conversely, a hot series would likely see that NFP-driven move unwind. As it stands, that sees USTs three ticks firmer in 104-22 to 104-29+ confines, while yields are lower across the curve with the short-end leading the downside currently.
• EGBs are in fitting, with no real reaction to the energy developments thus far. Instead, the bloc is focused on the fiscal front, as France's Le Pen speaks later and is expected to once again push back on the level of French contribution to the EU budget. Elsewhere, confrontation is expected between Spanish PM Sanchez and Italian PM Meloni, according to Politico, on the migration situation.
• Bunds similarly bid by about 10 ticks, in narrow confines. More generally, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is holding at 137bps and is modestly narrower on the session vs a c. 140bps start. While the BTP-Bund equivalent is around 108bps, and slightly wider as it stands.
• Finally, Gilts see relative outperformance today, supported by the FT report that Chancellor Healey's fiscal giveaways will be funded via taxation and/or spending cuts, rather than via more borrowing. Additionally, BoE Chief Economist Pill pushed back on the extent of market pricing for hikes by end-2027; however, his commentary was more pragmatic on the data-dependent and uncertainty points, rather than a complete dovish reassessment from the known hawk. Firmer by 50 ticks at best, hitting an 84.37 peak, but around 10 ticks shy of Tuesday's best as things stand.
• Germany sells EUR 1.882bln vs Exp. EUR 2.5bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bund.
• The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.625% 2030 Gilt: b/c 3.41x (prev. 3.24x), average yield 4.945% (prev. 4.786%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.3bps).
• Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.56x (prev. 3.42x), average yield 2.379% (prev. 2.239%), Tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.04).

Commodities

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are currently flat/mildly firmer, in what has been a volatile session for the complex. Overnight strength was facilitated by ongoing uncertainty related to the Strait of Hormuz; thereafter, the complex came under mild pressure, but lacked a clear driver. Some modest upticks were then seen after the Houthis warned that further operations against Saudi airports/oil facilities could happen in the coming days. Iranian press then reported that a tanker was sunk in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine; a report which failed to lift prices any further.
• As it stands, WTI and Brent are holding towards the bottom end of their respective USD 93.97-95.41/bbl and USD 105.21-107.15/bbl ranges.
• Dutch TTF is also firmer but off its best level amid the aforementioned Middle Eastern tensions, with winter conditions underpinning demand at a time supply remains uncertain. TTF has fallen from a EUR 87.44/MWh high to sub-EUR 86.00/MWh at the time of writing, but remains well above its USD 84/MWh low.
• Precious metals are subdued, with spot gold posting mild losses, given the broadly positive risk tone. The yellow metal will await US CPI for further direction; it currently trades within a USD 4,141-4,170/oz range.
• Base metals are firmer, with copper benefiting from renewed Chinese demand and stronger-than-expected trade data, alongside the broader recovery in Asian technology stocks. Chinese exports (USD) rose 36.3% Y/Y (exp. 25.5%), while imports increased 31% (exp. 24.5%), although factory-gate inflation accelerated to 5.0% Y/Y (exp. 4.5%). Some mild pressure was seen in Copper after BHP's Escondida mine reached a prelim agreement with its union, to avoid a strike.
• US President Trump said they are going to announce two deals today and stated every permit needed has been granted regarding Alaska LNG, while Trump then stated that Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of gas coming off Alaska pipeline and is to invest USD 4.4 billion in the project, on top of the USD 50bln South Korea committed to invest. Trump later posted that "Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland!"
• IEA OMR (Oct): Sees world oil demand falling by 2.6mln BPD in 2026 on Iran war disruption and rising prices (prev. 2.5mln BPD drop).
• BHP's (BHP AT) Escondida mine has reportedly reached a preliminary agreement with Supervisor's Union and is to be ratified by members, with a strike being avoided, according to sources.
• Japan's aluminium premium for Oct-Dec delivery set at USD 255/t, -35% Q/Q, according to sources.

Trade/Tariffs

• UK Business Secretary said the UK will not put tariffs on Chinese vehicles and he will not change trade rules due to EU pressure, according to The Guardian.
• Germany is reportedly set to push the EU to impose caps on additional Chinese imports, according to Bloomberg.
• China bought 8-10 cargoes of US soybeans for December shipment, according to traders.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump said during a rally in Alaska that they've been taking more oil out of the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, while he reiterated that the war with Iran will end soon and that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon. Trump also commented "Wait and see what we do to Iran. We're going to hit them hard. Wait and see what we do to Iran, because we've had enough".
• US Central Command rejected a claim by the IRGC Navy Commander that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control and that any approaching US warships would be sunk, while it stated that "IRGC's navy commander has no navy. American forces and regional partners clearly control the Strait of Hormuz. Just yesterday US forces assisted Gulf partners in shipping more than 19mln barrels of crude oil through the strait."
• A source told the Tehran Times that the assessment is that the US President Trump, under pressure from Israeli President Netanyahu, is seeking a new confrontation in the region, but does not have the capacity to expand or sustain this.
• Iran is reportedly shifting tactics to step up attacks on shipping ahead of US midterms, according to two Iranian officials cited by Reuters.
• IRGC Navy said that a container ship carrying 2,500 containers sank south of the Strait of Hormuz, Sepah News reported.
• Iran and Oman Foreign Ministers held a call and discussed latest regional developments, including developments in Yemen, and examined ways to achieve peace and stability in the region.
• Pakistan's Foreign Minister said they have discussed Bab el-Mandeb with Oman, further efforts need to be made to resolve the current situation.
• Oman Foreign Ministry said that discussions with Iran on Hormuz have concluded, adding that the finalisation depends on US-Iran talks.
• Yemeni Army Spokesperson said operations towards Saudi airports and oil facilities will continue in the coming days and warned for global shipping companies, civilians and workers to evacuate such airports and firms, as they are legitimate targets. The spokesperson confirmed that forces carried out a military operation targeting the Aramco company in Dhahran in the Eastern Province and King Khaled International Airport and the Aramco refinery in Riyadh with a large number of ballistic missiles.
• Houthi official warned that Saudi oil and vital installations will be visited overnight.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• UK PM Burnham will host Ukrainian President Zelensky in Downing Street on Wednesday as Ukraine and its allies scramble to respond to Trump's diesel deal with Putin, while Burnham will tell Zelensky that Britain's support is rock solid with faster delivery of lightweight, multi-role missiles to help Ukraine defend itself, according to Bloomberg.
• A US official said the idea of cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine is being discussed inside the White House, Semafor reported.
• Russian air attack hit energy facilities in Ukraine's capital Kyiv, according to the mayor.

Crypto

• Bitcoin has lacked a clear bias and trades in a USD 83.1k-84.06k range, as it remains contained within Tuesday's range.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00am: Oct 9 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.2% (actual: -2.7%)
• 8:30am: Sep CPI MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30am: Sep Core CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30am: Sep CPI YoY, est. 3.6%, prior 3.4%
• 8:30am: Sep Core CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.4%
• 8:30am: Sep CPI Index NSA, est. 336.625, prior 334.980
• 8:30am: Sep Core CPI Index SA, est. 338.510, prior 337.765
• 8:30am: Sep Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.3%, revised prior 0.4%
• 11:30am: US to sell $75 billion 17-week bills
• 2:00pm: Sep Federal Budget Balance, est. -$30.0b, prior $197.9b

Central Bank Speakers

• 1:30pm: Fed's Barkin Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 2:00pm: Fed Releases Beige Book
• 3:00pm: Fed's Goolsbee Speaks in Interview on Yahoo Finance
• 10:55pm: Fed's Bowman Speaks at Bangkok Economic Festival

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have put in a subdued performance over the last 24 hours, as investors are grappling with various crosscurrents. First, chip stocks sold off yesterday on the back of AI fears, with the Philly semiconductor index (-0.23%) posting a 5th consecutive decline even as the stocks saw an afternoon recovery off the lows. Second, US banks struggled as earnings season got underway. The KBW Banks index closed near the lows of the day down, having fallen -1.39%. And third, inflation fears were still prominent, as the 12-month Brent future (+1.12%) hit a new high for this year of $87.37/bbl. On the plus side French 10yr spreads tightened -4.9bps to bunds. All that before today’s US CPI print, which is expected to be a strong one.

Let's start with US CPI , which occurs just two weeks out from the Fed’s next decision, and a bit of hawkishness has crept back into the market narrative. For instance, market pricing for an October rate hike was back up to 24% yesterday, the highest since October 1, before the underwhelming jobs report (and a day after the initial French stress) led to mounting questions as to whether they actually could deliver back-to-back hikes. But with oil prices still elevated, the speculation has persisted going into the CPI.

This report is likely to be a strong one given the run-up in energy prices over September, and our US economists expect that motor fuel prices were up +9.6% over the month. So they think that would see headline CPI come in at +0.57% on a monthly basis, which would be the strongest month since April, shortly after the Iran conflict began. And in turn, that would take the year-on-year rate back up to +3.6%, its highest since May. To be fair, they think core inflation will be relatively softer, at a monthly pace of just +0.16%, leaving the year-on-year rate at +2.4%. But even so, any surprises either way will help shape the narrative going into the next Fed meeting, as we don’t get the PCE inflation readings (which they officially target) until the day after the next decision.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams yesterday reiterated his support for another 25bp Fed hike this year, but added that “I don’t think at this time I have any reason to believe that we would need to do more.” This puts him in line with the median from the September meeting dot plot. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin also spoke yesterday about the need for the Fed to grow more restrictive as he said that “It seems clear to me at this point that these shocks are continuing, and that inflation is enduring, and that doing something about it makes some sense.” He also asserted that the Fed’s goal of 2% was “actually something” that you can hit.

With that backdrop in mind, front-end yields generally moved higher around the world. For instance, the US 2yr Treasury was up +2.1bps on the day to 4.78%, while the 2yr UK yield (+1.7bps) also rose even as 2yr Bunds were unchanged. However, this wasn’t echoed further out the curve, as the risk-off tone put downward pressure at the long end. So the 10yr Treasury yield fell -2.9bps to 5.21%, whilst the 10yr bund yield fell -0.8bps to 3.47%. The one piece of (relative) good news came from France, where the 10yr yield fell -5.8bps to 4.84%, but even that still left the Franco-German 10yr spread at 137bps, clearly above its levels before the stress began a couple of weeks ago.

As all that was going on, it wasn’t the best day for equities either, as AI concerns meant there was a fresh drag from chip stocks and data centers. While chips are just one sector, semiconductors and semiconductor equipment make up over a sixth of the S&P 500, so what happens there can easily drive the overall index. And that was clear once again yesterday, as the Philly semiconductor index (-0.23%) posted a 5th consecutive decline for the first time since July. So that exerted a drag on the overall S&P 500, which was just worse than unchanged (-0.02%) on the day, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 also fell -0.10%. Data centers also lagged yesterday with CoreWeave’s stock down -3.05% alongside Applied Digital (-3.48%) and GDS Holding (-2.60%). CoreWeave, who has been a large issuer in the $HY market this year, saw their 5Y CDS contract close +79bps wider yesterday after having briefly traded above 1000bps intraday.

Otherwise, yesterday also brought the start of US bank earnings, with several names reporting. JPMorgan (-0.86%) reported an unexpected decline in fixed-income trading revenue, as the bank joined all other 24 members of the KBW Banks Index in closing lower on the day. Goldman Sachs (-0.23%) also missed on fixed-income revenue relative to estimates, but saw equity trading beat estimates. The worst performing bank in the index was Citi (-5.60%), who saw its fixed income revenue beat expectations, but its share price struggled despite that.

In the meantime, yesterday also brought a fresh rise in energy prices that led to renewed concerns on inflation. That was particularly clear in Europe, where the front-end natural gas contract (+3.40%) hit a post-2022 high of €87.22/MWh. Admittedly, Brent crude oil (-0.90%) came down slightly to $105.69/bbl, but concern about a longer period of high prices persisted, as the 12-month Brent future (+1.12%) hit a new high for the year of $87.37/bbl – also its highest level since August 2022. So near-term inflation expectations continued to rise, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+7.3bps) back up to 3.59%.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning as semiconductor stocks rebound from the recent selloff, though rising oil prices are capping gains. Across the region, South Korea’s KOSPI (+1.13%) is leading advances, supported by a recovery in chipmakers. Japan’s Nikkei (+0.89%) is also posting solid gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+0.16%) is modestly higher. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.66%) is under pressure, and China’s CSI 300 (-0.31%) is lagging regional peers. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite (+0.01%) is hovering around flat levels. S&P 500 (+0.22%), Nasdaq 100 (+0.24%) and Stoxx (+0.34%) futures are higher.

Earlier this morning, data showed that Chinese consumer inflation remained relatively subdued in September, as holiday-related spending provided only limited support to prices, while producer price inflation accelerated sharply to a more than four-year high. Consumer prices rose +0.9% y/y, coming in just below expectations of +1.0% and slightly above August’s +0.8% increase. In contrast, producer prices climbed +5.0% y/y, exceeding forecasts of +4.4% and accelerating from +3.8% in August. The stronger-than-expected increase in factory-gate prices reflected resilient business demand, rising input costs linked to AI-related investment, and supply disruptions associated with the Middle East conflict, pushing PPI to its highest level since June 2022.

Separately, China’s trade data surprised to the upside in September. Exports surged +36.3% y/y, marking their strongest growth since February, while imports rose +31.0%, the fastest pace since June and an acceleration from August’s +28.2% increase. Both figures comfortably exceeded market expectations of +25.7% for exports and +25.0% for imports.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but we did get a couple of US releases. One was the NFIB’s small business optimism index, which fell a bit more than expected to 97.9 in September (vs. 98.2 expected). Conversely though, the existing home sales for September beat expectations, coming in at an annualised rate of 3.99m (vs. 3.95m expected).

Looking at the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for September. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Elderson, Pereira, Escriva, Makhlouf and Schnabel, and the Fed’s Bowman and Barkin. Otherwise, we’ll get the Fed’s Beige Book. Finally, today’s earnings include Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:29

Pope Leo XIV Diagnosed With Cancer As Doctors Remove Part Of His Lung

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Pope Leo XIV was diagnosed with lung cancer following surgery to remove a section of his lung on Oct. 13, the Vatican announced.

Surgeons removed the lower lobe of the pope's right lung during the 90-minute procedure and examined it during the operation.

The pope was diagnosed with "lung adenocarcinoma," a common type of non-small cell lung cancer, after testing confirmed the finding.

Following the operation, Pope Leo asked for dinner and spent time visiting with his secretaries and other staff, according to the Vatican's Holy See press office.

He is expected to stay in the hospital for a week.

The 71-year-old Catholic pontiff was admitted to the Agostino Gemelli University Hospital Tuesday morning. The operation was performed by the thoracic surgery team led by professor Stefano Margaritora and assisted by professor Elisa Meacci, Dr. Maria Teresa Congedo, and Dr. Leonardo Petracca Ciavarella, according to the Vatican press office.

The lower lobe of his lung was removed using a video-assisted technique, the Vatican reported.

"An intraoperative histological examination confirmed the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma, as suspected from the preoperative examinations," the doctors said.

Pope Leo awoke normally after surgery and, after a brief observation, he was taken to his room on the 10th floor for recovery Tuesday afternoon.

"The doctors said it was successful and there were no complications," the Vatican said.

The lung tissue removed during surgery will undergo more testing in the coming days. Tests done before the operation showed doctors where and how to operate, officials said.

The Vatican planned to update the public again Wednesday on any developments from the laboratory or with the pope's condition.

The pontiff wrote about his upcoming surgery on Sunday. He said doctors had found a small, localized nodule on his lung that was detected early. He decided to undergo the procedure following their advice, he said.

"I thank you for your spiritual closeness and entrust myself to your prayers," Pope Leo wrote in a social media post.

Prayers for the first American pontiff and Chicago native poured in Tuesday afternoon following the announcement by the Holy See.

"We ask the faithful to continue praying for Pope Leo's recovery and for the doctors and staff caring for him. We also hold in prayer all who are living with cancer, their families, and those who care for them," the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops posted on X.

Archbishop of New York Ronald Hicks asked for prayers as the pope recovered.

"We thank God that the surgery on Pope Leo was, by all accounts, successful, and that he continues his recovery and recuperation," Hicks said in an X post. "I know that I join with people from all corners of [the New York diocese], across the country, and around the world in keeping the Holy Father in our prayers."

U.S. Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), son of civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, said his community was wishing the pope well.

"Pope Leo XIV is one of our own, a Chicago kid who carried the values of our neighborhoods all the way onto the world stage, and today our whole city is wishing him strength and a full recovery," Jackson posted on X. "Chicago is with you."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his wife, Jeanette, said they were "united in prayer" for the pontiff after hearing of his cancer diagnosis.

"May the Lord give him strength and the Holy Spirit guide the medical professionals taking care of the Holy Father," Rubio said in a post.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:20

Bank Of America Tumbles After Trading Miss Across The Board

Last night we said Bank of America would use its brand new and "unexpected" $1.2 billion (non tax-deductible) money-laundering penalty as cover for an ugly quarter. This morning it tried to do just that.

Just hours after Treasury fined the bank more than $1.21 billion for willfully failing to report over $5 billion in suspicious transactions (and for having "prioritized its revenues" over compliance), BofA reported Q3 results that missed almost everywhere that matters: FICC missed, equities missed, total revenue missed, and adjusted EPS missed. As we put it last night, it was "perfect timing for tomorrow's Adjusted EPS to miss net of 'one time almost criminal items'" and, sure enough, the bank's own release dutifully explains that "other net loss of $1.4 billion included a non-tax-deductible regulatory settlement charge of $1.2 billion."

The problem for BofA is that the fine accounts for the gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS, and nothing more. GAAP EPS was $0.91; strip out the 17 cents from the penalty and you get adjusted EPS of $1.08, which still missed the $1.10 consensus. In other words, even the "clean" number was a miss.

With that in mind, here is the scorecard for Q3:

• Adjusted EPS $1.08, missing estimate of $1.10; GAAP EPS $0.91
• Revenue net of interest expense $29.96 billion, missing estimate of $30.76 billion
• Trading revenue excluding DVA $5.06 billion, missing estimate of $5.41 billion
  • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.55 billion, missing estimate of $2.86 billion
  • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.51 billion, missing estimate of $2.63 billion
• Net interest income $16.45 billion, beating estimate of $16.24 billion (NII FTE $16.61 billion)
• Net interest yield 2.16%, beating estimate of 2.11%
• Wealth & investment management total revenue $7.12 billion, beating estimate of $7.06 billion
• Investment banking revenue $1.80 billion, beating estimate of $1.77 billion
  • Advisory fees $471 million, missing estimate of $483.3 million
  • Debt underwriting revenue $958 million, beating estimate of $920 million
  • Equity underwriting revenue $395 million, missing estimate of $422.5 million
• Provision for credit losses $1.27 billion, below estimate of $1.49 billion
• Net charge-offs $1.35 billion, below estimate of $1.44 billion
• Compensation expenses $10.97 billion, estimate $11.08 billion
• Non-interest expenses $19.72 billion; efficiency ratio 65.8%

Visually, the misses cluster precisely where the bank's Wall Street peers made their money this week: trading and capital markets.

Balance sheet metrics were mixed, with capital the weak spot:

• Return on average equity 9.41%; return on average assets 0.79%
• Return on average tangible common equity 12.6% (14.9% adjusted, vs 16% in Q1)
• Basel III CET1 ratio, advanced approach, 12%, missing estimate of 12.4%
• Standardized CET1 ratio 10.9%, missing estimate of 11.2%
• Loans $1.25 trillion, beating estimate of $1.23 trillion
• Total deposits $2.04 trillion, in line with estimates

Here is how BofA itself presents the quarter, with the "charge impact" row helpfully doing the heavy lifting. Also it's remarkable how quick Bank of America managed to flow through the "surprise" $1.2 billion charge not only through its financial statements but its presentations too just 12 hours later...

Note the bottom box: "Moderated capital markets activity"... followed by "Record year-to-date sales and trading revenue." Both are technically true but only one of them describes Q3.

The Trading Desk That Missed The Party

On Tuesday, JPMorgan and Goldman both stumbled in FICC but more than made up for it in equities: JPM's stock traders brought in $4.95 billion vs a $4.47 billion estimate, while Goldman's equities desk posted $6.44 billion, crushing the $5.09 billion consensus. Citi's bond traders, meanwhile, had their best third quarter in at least a decade according to Bloomberg.

BofA managed to miss on both sides of the desk. FICC revenue ex-DVA tumbled 17% YoY to $2.55 billion, which the bank blamed on "mortgages, municipals, and credit," a far uglier drop than JPM's 4% decline or Goldman's ~1% dip. Equities rose 10% YoY to $2.51 billion, which BofA calls a "record 3Q"... and which still came in $120 million short of what analysts expected.

Sequentially, it looks even worse: total sales and trading revenue ex-DVA dropped 29% from Q2's $7.16 billion to $5.06 billion, with FICC down 28% QoQ and equities down 31%. As a result, Global Markets net income collapsed by $1.4 billion QoQ to $1.2 billion, return on allocated capital plunged from 20% in Q2 to just 9%, and the segment's efficiency ratio blew out to 72% from 56% (chart source BofA).

Which brings us to Goldman's bank earnings preview from Tuesday morning. The bank's desk listed the key question for BAC as "Any NII upside updated for the rate curve and can this flow into operating leverage? Trading outlook relative to peers." We now have the answer to the second part: dead last. And Goldman bank analyst Richard Ramsden, who has a Buy on the stock, made the bull case in his Large Cap Banks preview (available here for pro subs) in part on BofA's lower sensitivity to Wall Street's revenue cycle:

We remain constructive on BAC's NII trajectory through 2026E/27E, and view the high end of the 2026 guidance as achievable with potential upside as well, especially driven by a better NIM outlook. Further, given BAC's asset sensitivity, and less exposure to capital markets revenue risk, we see an increasingly attractive top-line growth story.

Diversification at its finest: the less-exposed business is the one that missed by 6.5%.

Dealmaking: "Pipelines Remain Robust" (Fees, Less So)

Investment banking was the one capital-markets line that technically beat, with fees of $1.80 billion edging out the $1.77 billion estimate thanks to debt underwriting ($958 million vs $920 million expected). But the trend is hardly flattering: total IB fees fell 11% YoY and 16% QoQ, with advisory down 19% from a year ago to $471 million and equity underwriting short of estimates at $395 million. BofA's slide promises that "investment banking pipelines remain robust," which is what every bank says right before the fees fail to show up (chart source BofA).

This fits with Goldman's preview framing of whether Q3 was "just an air pocket or a signal of a more prolonged slowdown to come" as rising yields weigh on deal activity. With the 10Y knocking on 5% and Warsh's Fed eyeing hikes, we know which way we'd lean.

NII Delivers, Expenses Eat It

The good news, and the reason the stock isn't down even more, is net interest income. NII rose 8% YoY to $16.4 billion ($16.6 billion FTE), beating estimates, and the net interest yield jumped 15bps from a year ago to 2.16%, ahead of the 2.11% expected. Rising rates finally work in BofA's favor: the bank estimates a parallel +100bp shift in the curve would add $1.4 billion to NII over the next 12 months, while a -100bp shift would cost it $1.9 billion. Some $2.0 billion of the NII came from Global Markets, up from $1.5 billion a year ago (chart source BofA).

The bad news is the other half of Goldman's question: whether NII upside "can flow into operating leverage." Not this quarter. Total revenue rose $0.9 billion, or 3%, YoY. Adjusted noninterest expense (i.e. excluding the fine) rose $1.2 billion, or 7%, to $18.5 billion, "driven by revenue-related expenses and investments in technology and brand." Costs grew more than twice as fast as revenue, pushing the adjusted efficiency ratio up to 62% from 60% a year ago; including the penalty, it hit 66% (chart source BofA).

Good news for shareholders: compensation expense of $10.97 billion came in slightly below the $11.08 billion estimate. Traders who missed by 6.5% might see it differently (at least the one who aren't replaced by a chatbot).

Capital: Paying Out More Than It Earns

The CET1 miss deserves more attention than it will get. The standardized CET1 ratio fell 37bps QoQ to 10.9%, below the 11.2% estimate, as CET1 capital dropped $3 billion to $198 billion while risk-weighted assets rose $32 billion to $1.82 trillion. Meanwhile, BofA paid $2.2 billion in dividends and repurchased another $6.0 billion of stock, a total of $8.2 billion returned in a quarter when it earned $6.9 billion. The share count is down 5.6% in a year to 6.92 billion, which flatters per-share numbers. That math only works for so long, and Goldman already flagged "less excess capital... and higher rates impacting AOCI" as a reason buybacks could slow at the money centers.

Credit And The Consumer: The One Clean Spot

Asset quality was the bright spot. Provision for credit losses dropped to $1.27 billion, well below the $1.49 billion estimate, while net charge-offs fell to $1.35 billion from $1.41 billion in Q2, below the $1.44 billion expected. BofA released a net $80 million of reserves, and the credit card charge-off rate improved to 3.22%. Commercial reservable criticized exposure dropped to $19.9 billion, with the criticized rate of 2.49% the lowest since 4Q19. One small blemish: consumer loans 30+ days past due rose to $4.58 billion from $4.49 billion a year ago, even as 90+ day delinquencies fell (chart source BofA).

"Asset quality continued to improve and liquidity and capital remained strong," CFO Alastair Borthwick said. The first part is true; see above for the second.

As for the consumer, BofA's spending data still shows a population that is spending, if mostly on things it can't avoid. Combined credit and debit card spend rose 8% YoY to $266 billion, while year-to-date card spending on gas is up 16%, more than double the 7% increase in total spend, courtesy of the Iran war oil shock. That is the same 16% pace the bank flagged for March back in April, so six months later the pain at the pump hasn't eased (chart source BofA).

Bottom Line

Six months ago, BofA jumped on record equity trading revenue and a higher NII forecast. This quarter, NII once again did its job, but the trading desks missed on both FICC and equities in a quarter when their competitors' stock traders printed money, costs ran more than twice as fast as revenue, and capital ratios slipped below expectations as buybacks outran earnings.

And then there is the fine. Management will spend the 8:30am call talking about the "$1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge," which is a convenient thing to talk about since it is excluded from the adjusted numbers. But the adjusted numbers missed too. As we said last night, the dollar amount was never the real story: the bank that Treasury says "prioritized its revenues" over compliance (a problem it first disclosed back in October 2024) just reported a quarter where the revenues didn't show up either. And with the independent lookback and reviews still ahead, this is unlikely to be the last "one-time" item.

BAC shares were down 4.2% premarket (including the after-hours slide on the fine), after already dropping 1.2% on Tuesday, putting the stock around $51.70, roughly 20% below its 52-week high of $65.22. Goldman's Ramsden still has a Buy on the name. After today, the NII story is the only part of that thesis that is left.

The full BofA Q3 presentation is below (pdf link)

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:11

Saudi Arabia Planning To Bypass Hormuz With Massive Expansion Of Oil Pipeline

Saudi Arabia plans to lift the East-West pipeline's capacity to 10 million barrels per day within two to three years, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, as the kingdom works to keep its crude moving around a closed Strait of Hormuz.

The line has become Riyadh's main export route. Saudi Arabia has used it to reroute around 4 million barrels per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, Zawya reported. Drone attacks that Saudi Arabia blamed on Iraqi militias forced the kingdom to shut the pipeline on September 11.

Flows were back to 5.8 million bpd by October 6, the minister said, still 1.2 million short of the line's current 7 million maximum. ZeroHedge earlier tracked the pipeline hitting a record 7 million bpd.

As OilPrice.com notes further, the 740-mile-long pipeline, also known as Petroline, has a maximum capacity of 7 million bpd at present.

Despite the ongoing conflict and disruptions, Saudi Arabia plans to add 3 million bpd to the East-West pipeline, which became a lifeline for Saudi oil exports after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Thanks to the pipeline, Saudi Arabia managed to divert most of its crude oil exports away from the choked Strait of Hormuz and ships increasingly larger volumes via the Yanbu port on the Red Sea.

The route to bypass Hormuz is not without risks, either. The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen vowed in July to halt Saudi shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is the shortest route for Saudi oil supply from Yanbu to reach Asian markets.

Still, Prince Abdulaziz on Monday touted the energy resilience of the Kingdom, telling the WPC Energy Congress that energy resilience "must also be measured by the ability to maintain, repair, reroute, substitute and recover. Above all, it must be measured by the ability to continue delivering under pressure."

Saudi Aramco's chief executive officer, Amin Nasser, said at the same event that "In alignment with the Ministry of Energy, we are studying additional crude export routes, and working on expanding overseas storage."

Aramco's top executive added that the company is "also focused on mitigating risks and limiting damage, using frontier technologies to inspect facilities and accelerate restoration."

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:05

Trump Announces "Massive" Greenland Oil Exploration Plans

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

"Massive" oil, gas, and minerals exploration will soon begin in Greenland, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, claiming that the territory has enormous resources of readily available oil.

Last month, the United States, Denmark, and Greenland signed an agreement to strengthen defense and security in the Arctic and North Atlantic, easing months of tensions over President Trump's frequent threats to seize the Danish territory. The agreement reaffirmed Danish sovereignty and the right to self-determination of Greenland residents.

"Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland!," President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday.

"There are Experts that are saying that the amount of easily available Oil is far greater than that of almost any land, anywhere in the World and, even more importantly, from a Security Purpose in the Defense and Offense of both the United States of America, and Europe, is second to none."

The U.S. President did not reveal any timelines of the start of oil, gas, and minerals exploration.

U.S. Greenland Energy Company has said it will fund 100% of the costs associated with up to two exploration wells in Greenland, designed to delineate the hydrocarbon potential of a project in the Jameson Land Basin.

The company this summer postponed its planned oil drilling campaign in East Greenland until winter 2027 after project equipment was brought ashore without prior approval by the government of Greenland.

Greenland has seen oil exploration since the 1970s involving major oil firms, including ExxonMobil, Shell, and Eni. None has resulted in a major discovery.

Greenland is estimated to hold oil and gas resources, as well as critical minerals and rare earth elements.

In practice, Greenland's resources are extremely expensive and hard to extract. The lack of energy infrastructure or any processing capabilities puts in doubt the feasibility and economic rationale of trying to mine rare earths and critical minerals, for example, analysts say.

"Despite its hydrocarbon and critical mineral potential, Greenland is not Venezuela 2.0.," Wood Mackenzie's top analysts say, noting that the large island is remote, inhospitable, underexplored, difficult to explore, and very high cost.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 07:45

SpaceX Reportedly Caps Starlink Speed As Kiev Defies Trump's Calls To Halt Refinery Strikes

Reports say that SpaceX has imposed a movement-speed restriction on certain Starlink terminals used in Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent cited presidential adviser Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, who wrote on social media that the measure took effect overnight and applies to the StarShield "military service package," setting a threshold of 100 miles per hour (about 160 kilometers per hour).

"I confirm that (Starlink owner) SpaceX implemented speed restrictions on Starlink terminals while in motion last night. Currently, the restriction applies to the StarShield 'military service package' and limits speed to 100 miles per hour (160 kilometers per hour)," Beskrestnov said in a post on social media.

The local outlet noted, "Ukraine relies on Starlink for several military applications including operating its mid-strike campaign in Russian-occupied Ukraine, as well as interceptor drones that defend against Russia's new jet-powered attack drones."

"The consequences are already being felt in the field. Since the start of the day alone, a drone unit operating within the 7th Corps' area of responsibility in the Huliaipole sector has had to cancel a number of missions due to these connectivity issues," Ukraine's 7th Air Assault Corps told the outlet.

Western media, such as the Financial Times, said Ukraine was "blindsided by Starlink restrictions and intelligence gaps during Russian attack."

However, stated clearly in Starlink's Acceptable Use Policy:

AUP VIOLATION EXAMPLES. You agree not to do, or attempt to do, any of the following in connection with your use of the Services or Starlink Kit: (1) remotely controlling or piloting any aerial drone or unmanned vehicle, unless otherwise contractually permitted by SpaceX; (2) engaging in any military activity other than for purposes of supporting leisure and quality-of-life programs for military service members approved by SpaceX ("Morale, Welfare and Recreation");

The reported restrictions come amid tensions over Kiev's strikes on Russian refineries despite White House requests to halt the strikes. Those attacks, alongside disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has sparked a global refining crisis and sent diesel at the pump - worldwide - soaring and has complicate things for the Trump administration ahead of the US midterms. The timing raises questions about a defiant Kiev (read here) and whether those attacks on refineries were politically motivated to affect the outcome of the US midterms. 

@zerohedge I agree, time for Ukraine to get a new leader

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 11, 2026

There was an overnight report from Semafor:  

Ukraine's leader said he received no advance warnings from Western partners before a Russian missile strike on Tuesday, days after Washington threatened to stop intelligence sharing in a bid to force Kyiv to abide by an energy ceasefire. US President Donald Trump said Tuesday, "We are sharing intel."

Last week, Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, along with a deal with Moscow to temporarily lift US sanctions and allow Russian diesel imports to ease supply pressures and bring down record-high fuel prices ahead of the midterms. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 07:20

"NO TURKS - ALL OUT" - CDU Candidate With Turkish Background Allegedly Faked Hate Crime Attack

Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix,

Prosecutors have opened an investigation into a local Christian Democratic Union (CDU) mayoral candidate of Turkish origin who is accused of staging a racially motivated attack on his own car days before an election he lost badly.

While running for a position in the CDU, Baris Karabacak allegedly committed a hate crime hoax.

The Itzehoe public prosecutor's office is examining allegations that Baris Karabacak faked the incident, according to the German newspaper Bild. Authorities obtained and executed a search warrant against the politician and seized at least one electronic device.

Karabacak, an entrepreneur who had previously served as chair of the Uetersen city council, was the CDU's candidate in the Sept. 27 mayoral election in the town of roughly 18,000 people in the Pinneberg district of Schleswig-Holstein. He finished a distant third with 10.7 percent of the vote. Incumbent Mayor Dirk Woschei of the Social Democrats was reelected in the first round with 51.3 percent; independent candidate Marvin Schöpp received 38.1 percent.

A few days before the vote, local media including public broadcaster NDR reported that the windows of Karabacak's car had been smashed overnight. A campaign flyer bearing an added message in all capital letters reading "NO TURKS - ALL OUT" was left behind. Police initially investigated the matter as possible incitement to hatred.

At the time, state CDU General Secretary Lukas Kilian publicly backed his party colleague and expressed pride in the CDU's diversity. Woschei also offered solidarity, stating that political competition must be conducted with arguments and that "violence, hate and racist messages are an attack on the city's democratic culture."

Kilian's tone has since shifted sharply. He told Bild he was "stunned" by the new allegations.

"Anyone who fakes a racist crime abuses the solidarity of many people and mocks the victims of real racism. There is no place for that in the CDU," Kilian said. The state party has said that if the accusations are confirmed, Karabacak will be asked to resign his membership; failure to do so would trigger expulsion proceedings.

The case remains under investigation, and no charges have been filed. Karabacak has not publicly commented on the prosecutor's probe.

The episode has drawn attention in a town where Karabacak had earlier faced internal party and council criticism over his leadership style before resigning as city council chair earlier in 2026 and then securing the CDU's mayoral nomination.

Another hate crime hoax proven false in court

This is also notably not the first alleged hate crime hoax from a German politician. In 2023, Remix News reported on Manoj Subramaniam, a 33-year-old former local Green councilor in the German town of Erkelenz, who claimed he had been subjected to sustained acts of harassment by anonymous right-wing extremists. He showed police evidence of the abuse he had received, which included a threatening letter with a razor blade inserted and a swastika drawn onto his vehicle in red paint.

The case made national headlines last year with several prominent politicians offering their solidarity with Subramaniam for the alleged abuse he had received.

"Right-wing extremists are threatening political volunteers to silence them. Thank you, Manoj Subramaniam, for not being silent and raising your voice," stated Lamya Kaddor, a member of the Bundestag.

Federal police took protective measures for the politician's safety, and an intensive investigation was initiated by state security, all at considerable cost to the taxpayer. The only issue, however, was that Subramaniam had made it all up.

"The defendant actually wrote this note himself," revealed Justus Wassenberg, the press spokesman for the public prosecutor's office.

It transpired that Subramaniam had also drawn SS runes and a swastika onto the doorbell panel outside his house.

Subramaniam subsequently resigned from his position as a local councilor, and the Erkelenz District Court issued the disgraced politician a penalty order of €3,600 for faking criminal offenses, a fine he appealed.

He reportedly cried during his trial when his appeal failed.

2026 firebombing not an anti-Semitic attack after all

The investigation into the early 2026 firebombing of Brandenburg Antisemitism Commissioner Andreas Büttner's home stunned the public.

While the case was initially treated as an Islamist or antisemitic hate crime, the German Public Prosecutor General's Office now identifies two men from Büttner's "own circle," which belongs to the left, as the primary suspects.

One of the men is also linked to the threatening letter sent to Büttner. Meanwhile, Büttner said he was shocked and described it as the biggest betrayal of his life. He also stated that if the two were responsible, the act had nothing to do with antisemitism in his view. So far, the prosecutor's office has continued to list Büttner as a witness or injured party, not a suspect. News outlets have highlighted that there was a €3,000 transfer from Büttner to one of the men shortly before the incident, which he called a loan, and other joint activities. These details prompted public questions and speculation in some outlets about possible staging or a "false-flag" element, but no official finding has supported the claim that Büttner ordered or knew of the act in advance. The case still reportedly remains under investigation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 06:20

Pump-Pain Squeezes Convenience Store Spending: Citi Says "More Subdued" Mood Among Beverage Companies

Our reporting this year has shown how skyrocketing gasoline and diesel prices at the pump are reshaping consumer spending habits at convenience stores and gas stations. 

As fuel costs take up a larger share of household budgets, consumers trade down, cut back on discretionary purchases like energy drinks and snacks, or skip them altogether. Some also buy less fuel, putting pressure on both pump volumes and in-store sales.

Citi beverages analyst Filippo Falorni published a new report on Friday, reporting back to clients after attending the 2026 NACS Show in Las Vegas earlier this week. He warned that the overall mood among beverage companies was more subdued because of softer traffic and declining consumption, driven by higher fuel costs.

"Overall, the tone was more subdued than last year given softer traffic/consumption levels in the channel amid higher gas prices and lower-income consumer pressure," Falorni wrote in the note.

He pointed out that Citi-tracked convenience-channel dollar sales fell 2.1% in the third quarter from the same quarter a year earlier.

Volumes declined 5.1% in the quarter.

More indepth.

The convenience channel has materially underperformed the broader retail market since the Iran conflict began, Falorni said.

The slowdown increases exposure for energy-drink and beer producers that rely heavily on convenience stores. The channel accounted for roughly 63% of Monster Beverage's measured retail sales and 45% of Celsius Holdings' sales over the past year. For Constellation Brands, Boston Beer, and Molson Coors, the shares were about 66%, 60%, and 52%, respectively.

At the beverage-company level, the analyst said the convenience-store channel began underperforming in the second quarter, around the time we pointed out that consumer pullback was hitting gas stations and quick retailers (read here & here).

Despite those pressures, Citi remained optimistic about energy drinks, pointing to expected shelf-space gains, new customers, pricing contributions and a pipeline of products focused on protein and hydration.

Latest developments in the space, per the analyst:

Energy Drinks: MNST highlighted a solid innovation pipeline, which seems more focused on quality over quantity – incl. the Monster Protein Energy line, which will feature 30g of protein + 160mg caffeine in 12-oz cans (Vanilla & Chocolate flavors), planned for Mar-2027, plus flavor extensions across Ulta, Juice, Bang, FLRT. CELH showcased its Winter 2026 Spritz Vibe LTO – a sparkling Shirley Temple-inspired offering coming out this month. It also featured its new Celsius Energy + Hydration line (1Q'27 rollout) – 16-oz cans with 670mg electrolytes + 200mg caffeine, in 4 fizz-free flavors: Blue Freeze, Orange, Lemon Lime, Fruit Punch. Details & pictures inside.

Soft Drinks: KO plans to test-launch prebiotic sodas across its Coke Zero, Sprite Zero, & Fresca lines (each w/ 6g fiber) with regional testing planned for NY, NJ & PA in late Oct. It also featured new trademark Coca-Cola flavor launches expected in '27, incl Cherry Lime (Feb' 27) & Strawberry Float (summer' 27) as well as a new Fairlife Core Power Banana flavor (Jan' 27). PEP is introducing Pepsi Strawberry Shortcake, a new Pepsi flavor to launch in Feb '27, Gatorade Gatorlyte Longer Lasting, a new high-electrolyte RTD beverage/powder line (Feb' 27), and two new poppi lines, Lift & Chill, launching in '27. KDP showcased Dr Pepper Ice Cream Float, a new permanent flavor launching nationwide in Feb '27. For KDP's partner brands, Bloom will roll out three new flavors: Strawberry Shortie (Oct' 26) + Cotton Candy & Lemon Freezie (Jan '27).

Beer: TAP is planning a 2027 national launch of its non-alc Coors 0.0 product following a soft launch across select Northeast US markets in May '26. STZ featured its higher-ABV Modelo Chelada Suprema line with new 12- & 24-ct variety packs, with core Modelo Chelada adding a Pepino y Limón flavor next year. STZ also showcased smaller brands, incl. Right Hook (a new hard punch brand launching Mar. 27), Wildish Pop (a new vodka-based hard soda w/ 4.5% ABV & 100 calories), Austin Cocktails (brand refresh planned in 27/new flavors), Good Peels (new 12-ct variety packs and expansion into more states), & the recently acquired SpikedAde. SAM featured LYTT, a line of 15% ABV malt-based beverages launched in May.

How beverage companies have performed so far this year. 

If consumers really don't want to give up their energy drink habits, they can buy in bulk at Costco, where Kirkland Signature energy drinks cost about 70 cents per can.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 05:45

British Prime Minister Says Russia Meddled In 2016 Referendum On Leaving EU

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said that Russia interfered in the UK's 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union, and he warned voters in France and Germany about efforts the Kremlin may be making to influence their political systems.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham in London on Sept. 21, 2026. Jonathan Brady/Pool Photo via AP

Burnham, who last month said that the UK could consider rejoining the EU, is the first British prime minister to publicly say there was evidence of Russian interference in the Brexit referendum, in which voters narrowly voted to leave the bloc.

"I asked the question coming to Downing Street, was there interference in the 2016 referendum from Russia? And I've had the clear answer that yes, there was," he said on the podcast "The Rest Is Politics," in an episode that aired on Oct. 11.

"And these things are important now to put clearly on the record, and I believe help voters in Germany and France understand that some of this politics is instigated via our enemies, namely Russia."

He did not elaborate on how he believed Russia interfered and gave no evidence to support his claim.

He said people had not been sufficiently informed about the extent to which bad actors sought to disrupt the political process.

Britons voted 52 percent to 48 percent to leave the EU in June 2016, triggering a negotiation process that absorbed British politicians for several years. The UK finally left the EU on Jan. 31, 2020.

Burnham Calls AfD 'Threat'

Burnham said the UK had a "decade of drift and division" since Brexit.

He also said he told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz last week that the UK would support him to take on the "threat" he faced from the right-wing Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party.

"[Merz] was saying to me that the AfD are clearly linked to Russia, funded I believe," Burnham said.

The Epoch Times reached out to the AfD for comment but did not receive a response.

After a meeting in Berlin, Burnham's office said in an Oct. 8 statement that the UK and Germany were launching a partnership to counter sabotage and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

A British official on Oct. 12 told Sky News presenter Sophy Ridge that Russia had attempted to interfere in the referendum but had not succeeded.

"They do attempt to interfere in our processes, have attempted to interfere in a whole number of them, and of course, it's not just Russia, it's other countries, too," British Foreign Office minister Stephen Doughty said.

'Insulting' to Brexit Voters

Britain Unbound, which describes itself as a nonpartisan campaign group for a sovereign and independent UK, said Burnham's comments were an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the referendum result.

"There is no good reason to believe that Russian intervention influenced the outcome of the referendum in 2016," the group wrote in an Oct. 11 post on X. "It is also insulting to suggest that voters were so easily duped."

The UK Parliament's Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee conducted an inquiry into alleged disinformation and fake news between 2017 and 2019, which examined evidence of possible Russian interference in the Brexit referendum.

The committee said in its report that the government has not seen evidence of "successful use of disinformation by foreign actors, including Russia, to influence UK democratic processes," citing the government's response to a previous report.

"It is not that they have not tried, but we have not seen evidence of that material impact," then-Culture Minister Jeremy Wright told the committee.

Then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the BBC in November 2019 that no evidence existed of Russian interference in UK politics. Johnson backed the campaign to leave the EU.

Burnham, like most Labour Party lawmakers, backed the campaign to stay in the EU.

In July 2020, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied Russia had sought to influence voters in the Brexit referendum.

"Russia has never interfered in the electoral processes of any country in the world, not the United States, not Britain, nor any other countries," Peskov said.

The Russian Embassy in London has not commented on Burnham's comments, but on Oct. 9, it criticized the British government's latest sanctions.

"Each new list is meant to demonstrate London's resolve, but in reality highlights that its course is ineffective and pointless," it said in a post on X.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomes British Prime Minister Andy Burnham with military honors at the Chancellery in Berlin on Oct. 8, 2026. Lisi Niesner/Reuters Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 05:00

From EVs To Attack Drones: Battery Factory Conversion Echoes WWII Industrial Mobilization

Amprius Technologies has secured a $75 million US Department of War grant to convert an EV battery production line into advanced batteries for Group 1, 2, and 3 military drones. The award marks another example of civilian manufacturing capacity being converted toward defense production as the US expands its drone industrial base. 

EV blog Electrek reports: 

Amprius Technologies received a $15 million order for its innovative lithium-ion cells from an anonymous customer back in 2024, all the company would say was that the buyer was a, "leading Unmanned Aircraft System manufacturer." 

We still don't know who that mysterious customer might have been, but we know this: there's enough demand for Amprius' energy-dense batteries that DoW is willing to spend $75 million to draft a civilian factory originally designed to build zero-emission electric cars into drone duty.

The conversion reflects a shift in capital toward defense demand. As EV demand softens, underused battery production lines offer a way to expand military drone output without building new factories from the ground up. For the DoW, repurposing existing facilities could shorten the path to ramp up drone production. This approach echoes World War II industrial mobilization: redirecting civilian manufacturing capacity to meet military needs.

Related: 

• GM Delivers Patriot Missile Parts To Lockheed As Rearmament Supercycle Nears
• Volkswagen May Convert German Auto Plant Into Iron Dome War Factory

Here's more from the EV blog:

The grant itself will see the conversion of an existing US-based electric vehicle battery production line operated by, "a major South Korean manufacturer" through a grant awarded through DoW's Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment Program (IBAS). 

IBAS provides funds to shore up domestic manufacturing capabilities it deems critical to national security and defense, with the official copy explaining that, "the primary objective of this award is to establish high-volume, commercially viable US manufacturing for advanced battery systems that power unmanned aerial systems – Group 1, 2, and 3 drones."

The announcement comes shortly after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth revealed earlier this month the creation of Autonomous Warfare Command, dubbed "AutoWarCom," to accelerate the DoW's purchases across all categories of drones, robotics, and AI to prepare the military for warfare.

To do this, the US supply chain must scale up to produce millions of one-way attack drones, with components made domestically or in conflict-free areas. In other words, the US must source drone engines, blades, batteries, sensors, and other components outside China.

As Amprius CEO Tom Stepien explained, "This DoW grant is intended to establish a primary source of domestic, NDAA-compliant battery production." He added, "Our technology, combined with the US manufacturing prowess of our South Korean manufacturing partner, positions us to accelerate adoption of standardized, high-performance pouch cells in a fast-growing market."

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 04:15