"The Left Is Coming For Us"; Larry Klayman Warns "It's Going To Get More And More Violent"

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Renowned Attorney Larry Klayman, founder of Judicial Watch and later Freedom Watch USA, has long predicted (along with other top intel experts) increasing violence from the Left in a Marxist style Bolshevik Revolution.  

As money is cut off by the Trump Administration and legal pressure mounts for prosecuting Democrats for everything from fraud to sedition, you can expect the Left to dramatically increase the violence to try to destabilize America. Klayman explains, “Here’s what’s going to happen..."

"Department of Homeland Security Secretary Noem has a death warrant on her.  They are chanting ‘kill Kristi Noem.’  

It’s going to get more and more violent.  The more they are checked legally, the more set back on their heels legally, the more violent they become, that is why the American people need to arm up.  They need to be prepared. 

Don’t use weapons offensively, but defensively. 

The Left is coming for us. . .. It’s going to get extremely violent.  That is their intention. 

That is their desire, and that is what’s going to happen.”

What got the Left to increase the violence?  Klayman says, “I believe the trigger was Venezuela a week or so ago..."

"  We knew that was going to have a ripple effect, and it means business.  The President has cut off money, not just to Cuba, Iran and China with regard to oil revenues, but it shows his strength of resolve, and they frankly freak out over that. 

Then there are the ICE activities in Minnesota, which is one of the most corrupt and left-leaning states in this country. 

The Left is panicking, and they were always going to go to violence.  That is their modus operandi. 

That is the Bolshevik way of doing things.  That’s Karl Marx, and the way the Soviet Union was brought down by the communists. 

These people are communists.  They are Islamists.  There are good Muslims, but these are not those. 

 They are united in the form of Ilhan Omar, Tim Walz and that crazy mayor Jacob Frey.  They are using Minnesota as ground zero to do this.”

Other big legal news is a grand jury empaneled in Florida, which is going to look into partisan investigations on President Trump, including an FBI raid of his home at Mar-a-Lago in 2022. Klayman says:

“We do have a grand jury in Fort Pierce, Florida, which is the same district where I practice, and it is also the same district where Judge Aileen Cannon is.  She is probably the one who empaneled this grand jury. 

She found President Trump did not commit any violations with regard to the documents found at Mar-a-Lago.  There is a reason why it was filed in Fort Pierce.”

Klayman says some Republicans in Congress are not totally committed to stopping the fraud and crime of the Left.  Klayman points out:

“Congresswoman Nancy Mace went to the oversight committee and asked for a subpoena to be issued for Ilhan Omar with regard to marrying her brother, with regard to tax fraud and all kinds of illegal acts.  

Congressmen James Comer and Jim Jordan denied the request of Mace.  That is unbelievable!”

There is much more in the 42-minute interview.

FreedomWatchUSA.org needs your financial support. To make a tax-deductible donation, click here:

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org for 1.13.25.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 16:20

DNC Launches Massive Voter Registration Effort Ahead Of Midterms After GOP Makes Gains

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) on Jan. 13 announced a new voter registration initiative it said will be its largest financial investment in registration, launching first in Arizona and Nevada as Democrats look ahead to the 2026 midterm elections.

A voter casts her ballot on Election Day, in Canton, N.C., on Nov. 5, 2024. George Walker IV/AP Photo

The program, called “When We Count,” is built around a paid, part-time youth fellowship and a series of national voter registration pushes.

The DNC said it will train hundreds of young supporters to register tens of thousands of new voters, with early work focused on what it called priority congressional districts in the two states. The committee described the effort as a seven-figure investment but did not specify the exact amount in its announcement.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin framed the launch as an early move to shape the midterm landscape and expand the party’s organizing pipeline.

“The midterms are here, and at the DNC, we refuse to let anybody else dictate this election season—we’re setting the tone,” Martin said.

He said young people have told him they want to be involved and want leaders “who actually show up for them when it counts.”

The DNC is pitching the initiative as both an electoral program and an organizing training effort. In its announcement, the committee said it is making voter registration a top nationwide priority this cycle and argued that “partisan efforts are essential to reversing recent registration trends, winning in upcoming cycles, and training the next generation of Democratic organizers.”

Martin’s statement also cast the initiative as a response to Republican success in the field of voter registration.

“Our answer is simple: We’re going to register voters, train organizers, empower young people, and make sure they have the tools to shape their future.”

Party officials on a press call Tuesday also referenced their growing gap in partisan voter registration nationally, noting states like Florida, which had about 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats in 2024, and Pennsylvania, where Democrats’ registration advantage has shrunk from about 1.2 million in 2008 to fewer than 200,000.

The DNC said the new program is “specifically targeting non-college youth,” calling that population “historically overlooked by traditional voter registration efforts.” The committee said it found that nearly 60 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds are not enrolled in college and said the new focus is meant to register young supporters “where they live and work.”

The committee also tied the decision to start in Arizona and Nevada to both competitiveness and demographics. It said the program will begin in battleground congressional districts in the two states, saying that closing registration gaps there “could determine control of the House in 2026.”

The DNC pointed to “fast-growing populations of Latino, Black, and [Asian American and Pacific Islander] voters” in Arizona and Nevada and described that as an opportunity to engage voters the party said it “lost ground with in 2024.”

The DNC said the fellowship will be the core of its 2026 strategy. Under the plan, fellows will receive weekly training and support from the DNC’s national organizing program and will be tasked with registering Democrats in targeted House districts. The first cohorts are expected to begin in spring 2026 in Arizona and Nevada. The committee said it plans to train more than 100 fellows across the two states to register tens of thousands of new voters.

The party also said it will run four national voter registration weeks of action in 2026—across the spring, summer, and fall—leading up to the midterms. Those pushes are expected to involve fellows, state parties, coordinated campaigns, student Democratic groups, and volunteers. The DNC said it will provide toolkits, training, merchandise, and surrogates, and plans to promote friendly competitions between states.

The committee described the Arizona and Nevada rollout as a starting point it hopes to expand. It said the initial work will lay a foundation to scale the effort and register hundreds of thousands of voters nationally “in 2026 and beyond.”

In late September 2025, Martin announced the national party was shifting more resources into year-round organizing and partisan voter registration while increasing monthly support for every state party.

In a Sept. 30, 2025, recorded conversation with former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, Martin said the party had launched a partisan registration drive in which Democrats had stepped back from direct voter registration for roughly two decades after the 2002 McCain–Feingold campaign finance law.

That law meant national parties could no longer use unlimited donations to pay for voter registration or other party-building, according to Cornell law. Parties could still run registration drives, but they had to pay with money raised under the normal per-donor limits and publicly report the spending.

Martin and Harrison said limits on how national parties can fund party-building work pushed more registration activity to nonpartisan nonprofits that can register voters but cannot promote a party or candidate. Martin said the DNC has since developed a strategy that allows party staff and volunteers to register voters while also talking about Democratic candidates—a strategy it is now putting to use with this week’s announcement.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 15:40

Five Bitcoin Narratives Analysts Are Watching Beyond Price

Authored by Bradley Peak via CoinTelegraph.com,

Key takeaways

• ETF flows reveal real institutional demand beyond short-term price moves.

• Bitcoin treasury stocks can turn BTC exposure into an equity risk shaped by index rules.

• Low fees are reviving questions about how Bitcoin may pay for its long-term security.

• Scaling now means choosing between Lightning, L2 designs and protocol upgrades.

Everyone’s watching Bitcoin’s price, but in 2026, it’s often not the most informative signal.

That’s why it helps to understand what analysts look at when the chart isn’t explaining why the market is moving or where it may move next.

The focus shifts to factors that can quietly reshape Bitcoin’s demand, liquidity and long-term narrative: Who’s buying through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), how “Bitcoin treasury” stocks are treated by indexes, whether miners are earning enough to secure the network, what scaling actually looks like today and how regulation is shaping mainstream access.

Here are five Bitcoin narratives worth watching beyond price in 2026.

1. Reading institutional demand through ETFs

ETF flows may be one of the clearest institutional signals of demand because they reflect real allocation decisions by wealth platforms, registered investment advisors (RIAs) and discretionary desks, not just leverage bouncing around on crypto exchanges.

This idea comes straight from mainstream market reporting and flow data. Reuters framed Bitcoin’s mid-2025 breakout as being “fuelled by strong flows into Bitcoin ETFs” and said the rally looked “more stable and lasting” than earlier, speculation-heavy runs.

Reuters also quoted Aether Holdings’ Nicolas Lin on why this matters for the longer term: “It’s the start of crypto becoming a permanent fixture in diversified portfolios.”

The flip side is also worth noting. Bloomberg highlighted how quickly sentiment can turn when the ETF pipeline reverses, with investors “yanking nearly $1 billion” in a single session, one of the largest daily outflows on record for the group.

2. BTC as equity products

A growing group of public companies is effectively saying this: Instead of buying Bitcoin directly, buy our stock, and we will hold the BTC on the balance sheet for you.

Naturally, Strategy has been the poster child since 2020. The 2026 narrative, however, is that these types of products are moving into the crosshairs of index providers.

Reuters describes these “digital asset treasury companies” (DATCOs) as companies that “began holding crypto tokens such as Bitcoin and ether as their main treasury assets,” giving investors “a proxy for direct exposure.” The problem is straightforward: If a company is mostly a pile of BTC in a corporate shell, is it an operating business or something closer to an investment vehicle?

That question became a real market risk in early January 2026, when MSCI backed off a plan that could have pushed some of these firms out of major indexes. MSCI said investors were concerned that some DATCOs “share characteristics with investment funds” and that separating true operating companies from “companies that hold non-operating assets… rather than for investment purposes requires further research.”

Barron’s noted that JPMorgan estimated potential selling pressure could have reached about $2.8 billion if MSCI had gone ahead and more if other index providers followed.

Reuters quoted Clear Street’s Owen Lau, who called MSCI’s delay the removal of a “material near-term technical risk” for these stocks that act as “proxies for Bitcoin/crypto exposure.”

Mike O’Rourke of JonesTrading was blunter. Exclusion may simply be “postponed until later in the year.”

If ETF flows are the clean spot-demand story, treasury stocks are the messier cousin. They can amplify Bitcoin through equity mechanics, index rules and balance-sheet optics, even when the BTC chart looks boring.

3. The security budget question is back

After the 2024 halving, it has become more apparent that Bitcoin’s long-term security story is increasingly linked to transaction fees.

Galaxy put it plainly, “Bitcoin fee pressure has collapsed.” It estimated that “as of August 2025, ~15% of daily blocks are ‘free blocks,’” with the mempool often being empty.

That’s great for users who want cheap transfers. For cryptocurrency miners, it reopens the big question: What pays for security as the subsidy keeps shrinking?

CoinShares made the same point from the mining side, saying transaction fees “have fallen to historic lows,” sitting at “less than 1% of total block rewards” during parts of 2025.

By early January 2026, JPMorgan-linked reporting flagged real stress. Monthly average hashrate fell 3% in December, while “daily block reward revenue” dropped 7% month-on-month and 32% year-on-year, reaching “the lowest on record.”

VanEck also described “a tough structural squeeze” for miners as subsidy cuts collide with rising competition.

With this in mind, analysts are increasingly watching the fee share of miner revenue, hash price and profitability, and whether onchain demand can return without relying on a hype cycle to push fees higher.

4. Lightning, Bitcoin L2s and upgrade politics

Analysts are now watching the full stack when it comes to scaling.

First, Lightning Network remains a primary payments-focused layer, and capacity is rising again. In mid-December 2025, Lightning capacity was reported at a new high of 5,637 BTC. More important than the headline number is who is adding liquidity. Amboss framed it this way: “It’s not just one company … it’s across the board.”

Second, the “Bitcoin L2 / BTCFi” push is receiving institutional research attention. Galaxy counts Bitcoin L2 projects rising “over sevenfold from 10 to 75” since 2021 and argues that meaningful BTC liquidity could move into layer-2 (L2) environments over time. It estimates that “over $47bn of BTC could be bridged into Bitcoin L2s by 2030.” Whether that happens remains the central debate.

Third, Bitcoin’s upgrade debate is back on the table as L2 builders push for better base-layer primitives. OP_CAT “was disabled in 2010” and is now “frequently proposed… using a soft fork.”

Galaxy’s view is that proposals such as OP_CAT and OP_CTV matter because they could support features like “trustless bridges” and “improvements to the Lightning Network.” Ecosystem commentary is now putting timelines on these ideas. Hiro says there is “a good chance” of a covenant-related soft fork “as early as 2026.”

In short, analysts are watching three things: Lightning capacity and liquidity trends, whether Bitcoin L2s attract real BTC rather than incentive-driven capital and whether the soft-fork conversation turns into an actual activation plan.

5. Regulation is deciding who gets access

In 2026, regulation will increasingly shape who gets access to Bitcoin, through which products and on what terms.

In the US, a change in tone is visible at the top. A federal executive order states, “It is the policy of the United States to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”

It also says that government BTC in that reserve “shall not be sold.” This language frames Bitcoin as a strategic asset in policy terms.

Stablecoin rules are also key because they shape the infrastructure around crypto markets.

A legal breakdown of the GENIUS Act calls it “the first major crypto legislation” in the United States and noted that it creates licensing requirements for payment stablecoin issuers.

Meanwhile, large asset managers are already warning about second-order effects. Amundi’s chief investment officer said mass stablecoin uptake could turn them into “quasi-banks” and “potentially destabilise the global payment system.”

In the EU, Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) acts as a portcullis. Regulators said, “Only firms authorised … are allowed to provide crypto-asset services in the EU,” with a transition window in some countries running until July 1, 2026.

When it comes to regulation, it is important to watch authorization lists and deadlines in the EU, enforcement posture and whether “strategic reserve” language turns into durable policy in the US.

Where to look when the chart goes quiet

Bitcoin in 2026 appears less driven by hype cycles alone. Instead, attention is shifting to a few pipes and pressure points:

• ETF flows show who is allocating and how sticky that demand might be.

• Treasury-heavy public companies reveal how Bitcoin exposure is being repackaged for equity markets and how index rules can suddenly matter as much as onchain data.

• The security budget debate reminds us that network health depends on incentives.

• Scaling discussions have moved from abstract arguments to concrete trade-offs between Lightning, L2 designs and protocol upgrades.

• Regulation now determines which doors are open and which stay shut for mainstream capital.

None of these forces moves in a straight line, and none shows up cleanly on a price chart. Taken together, they explain why Bitcoin can look quiet on the surface while something important is changing underneath. For analysts, that is where the data increasingly lives.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 15:00

$500 Billion... US-Taiwan Agree Huge Chip Trade Deal

Confirming what we previewed on Tuesday, the US and Taiwan agreed to a long-sought trade agreement that would lower tariffs on goods from the self-governed island to 15% and see Taiwanese semiconductor companies increase financing for American operations by $500 billion.

While the details are a little murky, duties on Taiwanese shipments would fall from the previous 20% rate - putting them on par with Japan and South Korea, which reached their own agreements last year.

And, as Bloomberg reports, Taiwan’s technology industry would also commit to making at least $250 billion in direct investments to expand advanced semiconductor, energy and artificial intelligence operations in the US.

In addition, Taiwan agreed to provide an additional $250 billion in credit guarantees for further investment in the American semiconductor supply chain.

A White House statement outlining the deal did not specifically mention Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, but the arrangement has clear implications for the company, which is the world’s top producer of AI chips.

Bloomberg reported earlier this week that the accord would call for TSMC to build at least four more chip manufacturing plants in Arizona, adding to the six factories and two advanced packaging facilities it has already promised to open there.

The agreement was announced shortly after a delegation of top Taiwanese officials visited Washington to finalize the deal with President Trump’s representatives.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te had indicated he supported Trump’s goal of reindustrializing the US but said American land, electricity and workforce policy reforms were needed so projects could move ahead.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 14:20

"What Will They Do?! Nuke the US?": Russia Mocks Emasculated Europe As Trump Eyes Greenland

Russian officials have been quick to seize on President Trump's renewed efforts in seeking a way ahead to take control of Greenland, accusing the West of "militarizing" the Arctic while also mocking Europe's ability to defend the strategically important, mineral-rich island.

Trump had on Wednesday even suggested the large island is "vital" to his proposed Golden Dome air and missile defense system. The same day, European countries made clear they would bolster their forces on the territory which is a possession of Denmark. 

France, Sweden, Germany and Norway have confirmed they would deploy military personnel to Greenland, as Copenhagen tries to convince the White House to join a permanent NATO mission on the island as an alternative to taking it over.

Germany's Defense Ministry has agreed that a European NATO mission is needed to bolster security "in light of Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic."

This has angered Moscow, which expressed "serious concern" and charged the West with "militarizing" Greenland, and that Europe is ready to seize the moment "solely to advance an anti-Russian and anti-Chinese agenda."

"NATO has embarked on a course of accelerated militarization of the Arctic, increasing its military presence there under the fabricated pretext of a growing threat from Moscow and Beijing," the Russian embassy in Belgium said late Wednesday.

*  *  * Seen the new store design?

It added that European officials were already discussing plans to encircle the island and deploy a large-scale collective landing force, accusing them of invoking "mythical threats that they themselves have created." Meanwhile, 'big talk' from Von der Leyen...

VON DER LEYEN: GREENLAND CAN COUNT ON EU

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has further made clear the Kremlin believes the Arctic should remain "a region of peace, dialogue and equal cooperation."

It's interesting that Kremlin officials are focusing their harsh rhetoric and condemnations on Europe and not the Trump White House, and the reasons are clear. Moscow is trying to improve its bilateral relations with Washington, and to have Trump's ear related to the Ukraine war and crisis.

The Gallic cock has crowed that, if the sovereignty of Denmark is affected, the consequences would be unprecedented. Ooh, what they will do?! Kidnap POTUS? Nuke the US? Course not. They’ll just shit their pants and give up Greenland. And that’d would be a great European precedent

— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) January 14, 2026

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova further mocked the Europeans by saying "Let them look at what they said about Crimea... It would be very useful for them to fire themselves up over Greenland."

"Why not focus all efforts on Greenland now?" she said. And then she invoked the Iran crisis: "Don’t you think the situation in Iran has become a ‘convenient excuse’ for EU officials to divert public attention from the fact that an island is being taken away from them - without a referendum?"

Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev took the jokes further, writing on social media "According to unverified information, a sudden referendum may take place" - and followed by saying Greenland, with a population of about 55,000, could become Russia’s "90th federal subject."

The foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland nervously lit up a cigarette after the meeting with Vance and Rubio.

Earlier, they planned to convince the US to abandon its claims to Greenland.

They failed. pic.twitter.com/L1TOBDr1bj

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) January 15, 2026

He then mocked Europe's total inability to defend the island, asking: "What [will they] do?! ... Nuke the U.S.?"

"They’ll just shit their pants and give up Greenland. And that would be a great European precedent," he wrote on X on Wednesday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 11:25

Multifamily Delinquencies Rise Again, Hit New Post-Great Recession High

Authored by Ryan McMaken via Mises Institute,

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (also known as “GSEs”) have released their November reports on their mortgage portfolios and mortgage delinquencies. Both Fannie and Freddie report that serious delinquencies in multifamily are rising to multiyear highs.

For November, seriously delinquent multifamily mortgages (90+ days delinquent) at Fannie Mae rose to 0.75 percent. That’s up from October’s total of 0.71 percent, and it was up from November 2024’s total of 0.60 percent. Fannie’s delinquency rate has risen quickly since December 2022 when the rate was 0.24 percent. Excluding the covid panic, Fannie’s delinquency rate is now the highest since 2010, but remains below the Great-Recession high of 0.80 percent.

Freddie Mac’s delinquency report, on the other hand, shows delinquencies above the Great-Recession peak. During November, Freddie reported multifamily serious delinquency rate was 0.48 percent. That’s unchanged from October 2025, but up from November 2024’s level of 0.41 percent.

Comparing for November of each year, November 2025’s delinquency rate at Fannie exceeds that of November  2011, the previous peak year for delinquencies (ex covid), when November delinquencies reached 0.72 percent. At Freddie, November 2025’s delinquency rate of .48 percent is the highest in decades, and above the previous peak of 0.39 percent. 

This trend likely reflects slowing rent growth and waning demand for rentals as employment stagnates and wage growth slows. CNBC reported on Dec 26:

After years of steep increases, renters are finally seeing sustained price relief, a trend that appears to be carrying into early 2026.

In November, the median asking rent across the 50 largest U.S. metro areas was $1,693, down about 1% from a year earlier and marking the 28th consecutive month of year-over-year declines, according to Realtor.com listings data. Nationally, the median rent fell to $1,367, down 1.1% from a year earlier, according to Apartment List’s data.

November is typically the slowest month for rentals, but rents fell more from October to November this year than they did over the same period last year, according to Apartment List.

With new apartment supply still hitting the market, rents are expected to remain lower into 2026.

“Barring a major economic shock, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the more renter-friendly periods we’ve seen in a decade,” says Michelle Griffith, a luxury real estate broker at Douglas Elliman.

The phrase “renter friendly” is anything but friendly for owners of multifamily rentals. Moreover, landlords must continue to contend with rising prices in services and materials necessary for regular maintenance of multifamily units. In other words, we must consider inflation, so real, inflation-adjusted rent growth is even worse than the nominal declines now reported in a number of metro areas. In Denver metro, for example, the median asking rent in November was down 4.8 percent, year over year. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 10:40

Airlines Still Avoid Iran, Iraq Airspace Despite Reopening - Trump Assures Tehran No Strikes Imminent

Overnight, the world was on edge watching for potential signs of a new US military strike on Iran. This sense of anticipation was only heightened when Iran issued a nationwide "NOTAM" - or "notice to all airmen" - for its airspace which lasted nearly five hours.

All flights were banned except ones to and from Tehran which had been issued special permission. This was coupled with online rumors of fighter jets being heard over neighboring Iraqi airspace, but no new attack materialized. Late in the evening, President Trump also made known his reasons for holding off on any new strikes. Iranian officials say Trump informed Iran he does not intend to attack.

Iran’s airspace is again open after yesterday’s closure. pic.twitter.com/6UJtEmJ21H

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) January 15, 2026

As we reported, Trump told his national security team that "he would want any U.S. military action in Iran to deliver a swift and decisive blow to the regime and not spark a sustained war that dragged on for weeks or months."

"If he does something, he wants it to be definitive," one of the people familiar with the discussions said.

He had also earlier cited that he's been told that Iran is not killing anymore people in the streets - which Tehran leaders said were rioting and killing police in some cases. Further Trump said there are no further plans to execute protesters:

US President Donald Trump has welcomed “good news” in Iran after posting a message on social media suggesting an Iranian protester would no longer face the death penalty as earlier reported by various human rights organizations.

Trump wrote that an “Iranian protester will no longer be sentenced to death after President Trump’s warnings”. In response to the report, he added: “This is good news. Hopefully, it will continue.”

Whether the protester in question was really set to be executed is unclear, given the Western MSM sourcing for this and other claims:

The huge death tolls in Iran being splashed all over the media are sourced to an outfit in Fairfax, VA called "Human Rights Activists in Iran" that is overwhelmingly funded by the US government. What is their methodology? Is it credible? Who cares? Just pump the big numbers out pic.twitter.com/9No2e7n1Dw

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) January 12, 2026

Despite Trump indicating there will be no imminent strike on Iran, and with Iranian authorities now saying the streets are calm and police and security services are in complete control again, there's still concern that this is a ploy by the administration. 

Security has been heavy on Iran's streets in the last 48 hours:

“There is big military presence on the streets of the capital and elsewhere,” the resident said, describing widespread checkpoints, police stops and the presence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

After all, just prior to the start of the June war, the Iranians were lulled into thinking that they were entering new good-faith negotiations with Washington, and then suddenly a surprise Israeli-US attack ensued and their nuclear facilities were taken out.

As for regional airspace, commercial aviation (out of Europe) is still not taking any chances, even though airspace over the Islamic Republic has reopened: 

European airlines are continuing to avoid flying over Iran, despite Tehran having reopened its airspace following an earlier closure of nearly five hours, according to reports.

Airlines were also avoiding flying over neighboring Iraq, Reuters news agency reported, citing information on flight tracking ⁠websites.

British Airways, Wizz Air, Lufthansa and TUI were among the airlines flying alternative routes in a bid to mitigate risks in the region, amid fears of potential US military action against Iran.

"We avoid Iraqi and Iranian airspaces, therefore some westbound flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports will have to make [refuelling and crew change] stops in Larnaca, Cyprus or Thessaloniki, ‌Greece," a Wizz Air spokesperson was quoted as saying.

Trump has long proven his ability to catch the world, and Washington's rivals and enemies, by shock and surprise - so it's still anyone's guess what might happen in the coming days and weeks.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 10:20

Trump Invokes Section 232 To Seek Foreign Supplies Of Processed Critical Minerals, Avoids Tariffs For Now

President Trump said on Wednesday he had opted against imposing tariffs on rare earths, lithium and other critical minerals - for now - and instead ordered his administration to seek supplies from international trading partners. 

By invoking Section 232 not to slap immediate tariffs, but to renegotiate how the US imports processed critical minerals, the White House defers a decision on duties that could further roil the US economy, especially while the Supreme Court is still deliberating the legality of Trump's tariffs (and just punted on the ruling for a second time).

Trump ordered US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to "enter into negotiations with trading partners to adjust the imports of (critical minerals) so that such imports will not threaten to impair the national security of the United States."

In acknowledging the country is far from being self-reliant for its critical minerals needs, though, it may rankle the domestic mining sector according to Reuters.

As DA Sails noted on X, the decision "matters because the real bottleneck isn’t mining…it’s refining and downstream processing. That’s where the U.S. is most exposed." As such, the goal of the decision is to "work with allies to set more stable trade terms (including price floors), reduce reliance on non-market suppliers, and rebuild domestic capacity."

The negotiations, Trump said, should promote the use of price floors for critical minerals, a step long sought by Western miners and policymakers. G7 finance ministers and those from other major economies like Australia met in Washington earlier this week to discuss such a step, for example.

And if Greer and Lutnick's negotiations are not successful, Trump said he would consider setting minimum import prices for critical minerals or "may take other measures," without elaborating.

As Reuters notes, Trump is essentially agreeing to a recommendation by Lutnick, who last April launched a national security review under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and in October submitted his findings to the president.

Lutnick's report found that the U.S. is "too reliant on foreign sources" of critical minerals, lacks access to a secure supply chain, and is experiencing "unsustainable price volatility" for the materials, with all those factors fueling a "significant national security vulnerability that could be exploited by foreign actors."

It was not immediately clear why Trump waited until this month to act on Lutnick's report.

It is well known that China is a top global producer of more than half of the 54 minerals considered critical by the U.S. Geological Survey, for example, and has been curtailing exports in the past year amid its trade dispute with Washington. The country is also a major refiner of critical minerals.

"Mining a mineral domestically does not safeguard the national security of the United States if the United States remains dependent on a foreign country for the processing of that mineral," Trump said in the order.

Following news that US held off from imposing import tariffs on critical minerals, silver and other metals retreated from record highs as investors took profits following a blistering rally in the space.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 09:40

Trump To Meet With Venezuelan Opposition Leader Machado

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado at the White House today (Jan. 15).

“She’s a very nice woman,” Trump told Reuters in a Jan. 14 interview. “I think we’re just going to talk basics.”

The United States said in 2024 that then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro lost the presidential election to Machado’s party. Machado was going to run against Maduro in the 2024 election, but the regime disqualified her. She went into hiding and was succeeded by Edmundo González.

Machado said in July 2024 that González won the disputed election with 70 percent of the vote and declared him president-elect. Her party said the results showing Maduro won were fraudulent. Then-U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed.

“Given the overwhelming evidence, it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 [2024] presidential election,” Blinken said in a statement at the time.

Trump’s meeting with Machado comes in the wake of an unprecedented raid in which U.S. forces captured Maduro from the capital city of Caracas.

The nation’s presidential website still identifies Maduro as “Venezuelan president”—referring to Delcy Rodriguez as “acting president”—and calls for Maduro’s release. Rodriguez has made similar calls for her predecessor’s release.

Rodriguez, alongside many members of Maduro’s inner circle, remains in charge of day-to-day government operations.

Maduro is currently facing narcoterrorism charges and a litany of other charges in U.S. federal court and could face life imprisonment if convicted. He denies the charges.

In this courtroom sketch, ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro attends his arraignment to face U.S. federal charges, including narcoterrorism, conspiracy, drug trafficking, money laundering, and others, at the Daniel Patrick Moynihan U.S. Courthouse in Manhattan on Jan. 5, 2026. Jane Rosenberg/Reuters

Trump said on Jan. 14 that he had a “great conversation” with Rodríguez, the first direct communication between the two since Maduro was ousted.

“We had a call, a long call. We discussed a lot of things,” Trump told reporters. “And I think we’re getting along very well with Venezuela.”

Venezuela's deputy leader and oil minister, Delcy Rodriguez, addresses the media in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 10, 2025. Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters

Rodriguez has begun releasing political prisoners jailed under the previous regime, and says that these mass releases will continue.

Trump has previously questioned Machado’s credibility or authority to lead the nation.

Just hours after Maduro’s capture, Trump said “it would be very tough” for Machado to be the leader.

“She doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country,” Trump said at the time.

“She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.”

Machado’s whereabouts had largely been unknown since early 2025, when she went into hiding after being briefly detained in Caracas.

Machado won last year’s Nobel Peace Prize and has offered to share the prize with Trump, a move that has been rejected by the Nobel Institute.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 09:20

The post Can the AI Folks Save Democracy? appeared first on CEPR.

What Is "America First"?

LIVE NOW:

https://t.co/hwDX5KTxke

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 15, 2026

************************

What does “America First” actually mean in 2026?

Once a unifying MAGA slogan, the phrase has increasingly become a fault line, splitting conservatives largely along foreign policy lines. The divide is particularly stark on the question of American support for Israel and was widened by the recent ousting of Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro.

The Right is torn over whether “America First” means restraint abroad with a hyper focus on domestic policy or moral assertiveness on the world stage coupled with strong-arming weaker countries in the name of our “national interests”.

At 2pm ET today, ZeroHedge partnering with the legendary Judge Napolitano to host a debate on this very question.

The debate will feature libertarian commentator Dave Smith and conservative filmmaker Dinesh D'Souza, moderated by former judge and constitutional analyst Andrew Napolitano. Topics will include Venezuela, Israel, isolationism vs interventionism, and notable intra-conservative feuds like Carlson-Levin.

Smith and D'Souza's respective reactions to the Absolute Resolve action by the U.S. military in Venezuela exemplifies the schism. While D'Souza celebrated the operation in its immediate aftermath...

“Thank you, America.” pic.twitter.com/qgbHIgnwsV

— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) January 3, 2026

...Smith was cautious to hoist the Mission Accomplished banner.

When you were cheerleading the disastrous war in Iraq that got a million people killed for nothing, there were also a lot of Iraqis cheering when Saddam fell. And for obvious reasons. He was a bad guy and you root for the people he oppressed.

But, the real question, that you and… https://t.co/PsxMMAeWBL

— Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) January 5, 2026

Be sure to tune in on the ZeroHedge homepage and X account or on Judge Napolitano’s Judging Freedom YouTube channel.

See you at 2pm ET.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 09:05

Watch: This Is Just Absolutely Insane

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In an incredible Senate hearing meant to address the dangers of abortion pills sold online without proper oversight, a Democratic witness turned the spotlight on herself by refusing to acknowledge that only women can get pregnant.

Dr. Nisha Verma, an OB-GYN tapped by Democrats, evaded direct questions from Republicans, prioritizing “identities” over scientific fact. This exchange highlights how insane woke ideology has infiltrated even medical testimony, undermining protections for women and enabling potential abuse through lax regulations on chemical abortions.

The hearing exposed real risks, like men coercing women into abortions by easily obtaining pills online—no in-person checks required. Yet Verma couldn’t—or wouldn’t—affirm basic truths, leaving observers questioning how such “experts” hold medical licenses in the first place.

How is this real? How are these people doctors? pic.twitter.com/TDCjWtmFPp

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) January 14, 2026

The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee convened on Wednesday to examine the safety of mifepristone, the abortion pill increasingly distributed via mail and telehealth.

Republicans highlighted cases of coercion, including one where a male physician forced pills on his girlfriend after she refused a spiked drink. Senators also shared stories of abusive partners exploiting online access to these drugs, with one staffer nearly ordering pills under a male name like “Michael” to prove the point.

But it was an unbelievable exchange between Senator Josh Hawley and Dr. Nisha Verma that garnered all the attention. Verma serves as a senior advisor to Physicians for Reproductive Health, an organization advocating for abortion access. She’s a board-certified OB-GYN and abortion provider who has testified before Congress previously.

According to her profile, Verma is also a medical school professor, but her reluctance to address straightforward biology raises serious doubts about her adherence to evidence-based medicine. It’s a stark example of ideology trumping science.

The fireworks started when Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) pressed Verma on the risks of men obtaining abortion pills to harm women. “Can men get pregnant?” Moody asked.

Verma responded, “I treat people with many identities.”

? OMG. Absolutely BRUTAL exchange in the Senate. I can't with these people.

SEN. ASHLEY MOODY: "Ms. Verma, can men get pregnant?"

DR. VERMA: "Um…"

MOODY: "As a doctor, can men get pregnant?"

DR. VERMA: "Um…I mean…"

MOODY: "I'll move to the next doctor. Doctor, can men… pic.twitter.com/hwWCmk91jB

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 14, 2026

Unsatisfied, Hawley (R-MO) took over, repeatedly seeking clarity. “Can men get pregnant?” Hawley demanded.

“I’m not sure what the goal of the question is,” Verma replied.

Hawley clarified: “The goal is to establish a biological reality. Can men get pregnant?”

Verma doubled down: “I take care of people with many identities.”

Hawley persisted: “Can men get pregnant?”

“Again, as I’m saying-” Verma began, before Hawley interjected: “You said science and evidence should control. Can men get pregnant? You’re a doctor, I think.”

“Science and evidence should guide medicine,” Verma said.

Hawley pushed: “Do science and evidence tell us that men can get pregnant?”

“I think yes-no questions like this are a political tool,” Verma answered, calling Hawley’s line of questioning “polarizing.”

Hawley fired back: “It is not polarizing to say that women are a biological reality and should be treated and protected as such; that is truth.”

He later added that it “is deeply corrosive to science, to public trust and yes, to constitutional protections for women as women” not to acknowledge that only biological females can get pregnant.

This isn’t the first time leftist witnesses have twisted biology in abortion hearings.

But Verma’s evasions stand out as particularly egregious.

The answer is no. Men cannot get pregnant. If you are a doctor and you cannot answer this question, you should probably consider a new career.

— Bo (@dittletv) January 14, 2026

@RyanAFournier pic.twitter.com/u3gFF3wm7S

— Yehuda Remer (@ThePewPewJew) January 14, 2026

If a person is pregnant that person is a woman.

They can pretend to be a man, they can refer to themselves as a man, they can ask their friends to call them a man and use whatever pronouns they want.

But she’s a woman.

Period.

— Rich Toronto (@rich_toronto) January 14, 2026

Episodes like this underscore the left’s detachment from reality, where protecting women from exploitation takes a backseat to appeasing radical activists. Biological facts aren’t negotiable—they’re essential to safeguarding freedom and common sense. If we let ideology override science, we risk more than just hearings; we risk the very foundations of truth in our society.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 08:50

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge Back Near Record (56 Year) Lows

Once again, weekly jobless claims data shows no signs of pain the labor market with the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time dropping back below the Maginot Line of 200k (198k - below all estimates)...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, the unadjusted data surged higher (330k) as its seasonal pattern continues.

New York saw the largest drop in initial claims last week (and Texas the biggest increase)...

Source: Bloomberg

The 'adjusted' claims data is back near its lowest levels since 1969...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing jobless claims remains below its crucial 1.9 million Americans level...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, despite the overall decline, we are seeing a resurgence on continuing claims in the 'Deep Tristate' region...

Source: Bloomberg

So, all in all, the 'no hire, no fire' economy continues with GDP growth forecasts holding exceptionally strong.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 08:40

Futures Jump As Blowout TSMC Earnings Reboot Tech Trade

US equity futures are higher led by Tech stocks which bounced back on Thursday after chipmaker TSMC revived confidence in the durability of artificial-intelligence demand, as signalling a strong outlook with $56BN in CapEx spending in 2026 (a 25% increase), restoring confidence in global AI growth and sending Europe's ASML to a record high. Silver dropped for the first time in 5 days from a record high as the US held off from attacking Iran and refrained from imposing import tariffs on critical minerals. As os 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.4% higher with Nasdaq 100 contracts +0.7%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA (+1.4%), AMZN (+0.7%), TSLA (+0.5%) and MSFT (+0.5%).Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are also higher after reporting solid Q4 earnings. Bond yields are unchanged; The US dollar is 7bps higher. Commodities are mostly lower: oil fell 4.4%; silver is down 2.0%; metals are mostly lower today. Situation in Iran is closely watched, as an Iran official pledged not to execute protesters. Trump said he has no plan to fire Powell in a RTRS article. Today's US economic calendar includes January Empire manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed business outlook, November import/export prices, and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and November TIC flows (4pm).

In premarket trading, Nvidia leads Mag 7 stocks after TSMC’s stellar outlook. All Mag 7 stocks are higher (Nvidia +1%, Amazon +0.7%, Tesla +0.4%, Alphabet +0.5%, Microsoft +0.4%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Apple is little changed)

• Applied Materials (AMAT) rises 7% as Barclays upgrades to overweight. The chip-tool maker is also getting a boost after TSMC set a bullish capital spending target, signaling strong demand for AI chips.
• Chip equipment stocks lead gains in the semiconductor sector after TSMC set its 2026 capital spending target above investor expectations, signaling confidence in the AI boom.
• Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) rises 1.1% after investing $200 million in Beast Industries, a content creation company founded by YouTube creator MrBeast.
• BlackRock (BLK) gains 1.9% after the asset manager reported adjusted EPS and net inflows that came in above the average analyst estimates.
• Calavo Growers (CVGW) rises 14% after Mission Produce agreed to buy the avocado producer for $27 per share in cash and stock, at enterprise value of about $430 million. Mission Produce (AVO) -6%.
• Morgan Stanley (MS) rises 1.3% after posting quarterly results.
• Penumbra (PEN) rises 11% as Boston Scientific agreed to buy the company in a cash and stock deal that values Penumbra at $374/share.
• Talen Energy Corp. (TLN) gains 10% after signed agreements to acquire three natural gas power plants from Energy Capital Partners for $3.45 billion.

In corporate news, Amazon is challenging Saks’ bid to fund its bankruptcy with financing that would provide the retailer with fresh cash, saying it would harm Amazon and other unsecured creditors. Paramount Skydance named a new CFO as it continues to fight for control of Warner Bros. Elon Musk’s xAI is disabling the ability for people to use Grok to create sexualized images of real people, following widespread criticism.

After a week filled with geopolitical tensions and Trump wild cards, the AI story is back and boosting stocks. TSMC’s big beat and huge capex forecast, is fueling optimism that the AI boom has plenty of room to run.  The AI-bellwether said it would lift capital spending by at least a quarter to as much as $56 billion in 2026 and forecast faster-than-expected revenue growth. Here is a summary of the blowout results and guidance that TSMC just reported:

• Net Profit 505.7bln (exp. 467bln),
• Revenue 1.046tln (exp. 868.46bln),
• CapEx USD 40.9bln (exp. USD 40-42bln).
• Q4 gross margin 62.3% (exp. 60.6%), +3.3ppts Y/Y.
• Q4 revenue from high performance computing +4% Q/Q.
• Q4 revenue from smartphones +11% Q/Q.
• Q4 revenue from IoT +14% Q/Q.
• Guides Q1 Revenue between USD 34.6-35.8bln (exp. 33.2bln),
• Guides Gross Margin between 63-65% (exp. 59.6%),
• Sees Operating Margin between 54-56% (exp. 50%),
• 2026 CapEx to come in between 52-56bln (prev. 40.9bln in 2025)
• Capex is to be higher in the next three years. Cost of tools are becoming more expensive. Long term gross margins of 56% and higher is achievable. In 2026 there are uncertainties from tariffs.
• Will be prudent in business planning. Robust AI-related demand. Increasing AI model adoption. 2026 sales to grow by close to 30% in USD terms. Preparing to increase capacity to support customers.
• Customers are providing strong signals and reaching out directly to request capacity. Firms have been showing TSMC that AI is a significant help to their businesses. Announces plans to expand its fabrication facilities in Arizona. Co. is worried about electricity in Taiwan. Co. informed that Silicon from TSMC is a bottleneck with the Co. aiming to deal with the bottle neck first and foremost. Reduced their 6 and 8 inch wafer capacity to optimise resources.

Chip-equipment makers led gains within the sector. ASML Holding NV, which counts TSMC as its biggest customer, jumped more than 5% in Amsterdam. TSMC suppliers Applied Materials Inc. and Lam Research Corp. rose more than 7% in premarket trading. AI heavyweights such as Nvidia Corp. and Alphabet Inc. also advanced, though the gains were more muted.

TSMC’s “approach to guidance suggests further upside to consensus estimates and supports a constructive outlook,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments.

The renewed optimism around AI follows weeks of steady rotation away from mega-cap technology stocks and toward a broader set of companies leveraged to improving growth prospects. The trend saw the S&P 500 post its first back-to-back losses on Wednesday even though a majority of its members advanced.  The rotation trade sweeping through equities is highlighted in a Goldman Sachs survey. “Technology remains the top pick, though its lead has narrowed compared to last year — mirroring the decline in enthusiasm for the US market,” strategist Guillaume Jaisson wrote.

Elsewhere, in tech news, OpenAI signed a $10 billion deal with Cerebras for computing power, with ambitions to make ChatGPT the fastest platform in the world. Alibaba showcased plans to link flagship services and build Qwen into a one-stop AI platform. Today’s Tech Watch looks at how soaring prices for memory and storage are causing headaches for customers.

In other assets, oil was down for the first time in six days as Trump indicated he’s holding off on any attack on Iran for now, a statement that also put the rally in gold on pause. Silver dropped after the US refrained from imposing tariffs on critical minerals. But it did levy a 25% tariff on imports of certain advanced semiconductors, a key step in allowing Nvidia to ship Taiwan-made H200 AI processors to China.

In geopolitics, China banned cybersecurity products from American and Israeli firms, including Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet. Trump told Reuters he sees Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy as the main obstacle to an agreement to end the war Russia launched four years ago. And Germany will take the lead of European nations sending military personnel to Greenland. Trump also told Reuters that he doesn’t plan to fire Powell despite the DoJ probe. 

European stocks are mostly positive with a TSMC-led surge in ASML shares lifting the Euro Sstoxx 50 higher by 0.5%. CAC 40 lags with the luxury sector weighed down by Richemont’s margin concerns. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• VAT Group hares gain as much as 18%, the most since April, as preliminary net sales for the full year show an earlier upswing than analysts had previously expected.
• ASML shares soar as much as 7.7% to a record high, after its key customer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. gave a stronger-than-anticipated outlook for 2026.
• Schroders shares gain as much as 8.9%, hitting their highest level since August 2023, after the asset management group said annual adjusted operating profit will come in ahead of expectations.
• Swedbank shares jump as much as 6.7% to a record high after the US Department of Justice closed a yearslong investigation without imposing penalties.
• Ashmore Group shares rally as much as 17% after the emerging markets-focused asset manager reported the first monthly net inflows since 2021.
• Richemont shares reverse earlier gains to slide as much as 3.4%, as worries over margins at the Swiss owner of Cartier and Van Cleef overshadow a robust sales report.
• Repsol shares drop as much as 7%, the most since April, after the Spanish oil company released a trading statement that analysts view as mixed, with a miss on upstream production.
• OMV shares drop as much as 2.9% after the Austrian oil and gas company reported fourth-quarter production that missed estimates.
• Dunelm shares slide as much as 18%, the most since March 2020, after the homeware retailer reported softer-than-expected results and downgraded first-half pretax profit guidance.
• Taylor Wimpey shares fall as much as 5.2%, the most in three months, as the UK homebuilder guides that margins will be lower in 2026 than in 2025.

Asian stocks were slightly lower, with declines in some of last year’s big AI winners pulling down the regional benchmark. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% as markets consolidated after three straight sessions of gains. Japan’s Advantest and Tokyo Electron lost more than 3% each. Trip.com’s shares were another big drag, plunging more than 20% in Hong Kong after Chinese regulators said the online travel agency was being investigated over alleged antitrust conduct. Despite Thursday’s weakness, the MSCI Asia gauge is firmly on course for a fourth striaght week of gains, which would mark the longest streak since May 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks on the mainland fell for a third straight day amid efforts by regulators to rein in potential froth in the market. Beijing on Wednesday tightened rules on margin financing, signaling unease over the pace of a rally that has added $1.2 trillion in value over the past month alone. Here Are the Most Notable Asian Movers

• Alibaba’s shares drop as much as 3.5% in Hong Kong, as investors book gains following a much-anticipated product event Thursday on its AI offerings.
• Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. shares fell the most in a month after reports that an American distributor may sell its operations raised the prospect of further disruption to the company’s already struggling US business.
• Merdeka Battery Materials and Trimegah Bangun Persada lead a rise in Indonesian nickel miner stocks as the governnment is likely to issue quotas for between 250 million and 260 million tons of nickel ore this year, implying lower production for the year.
• Shift Inc. shares plunge as much as 10% to the lowest since Sept. 2024 after the Japanese IT services company announced its first quarter earnings with possible profit declines ahead.
• Toho shares climb as much as 7.3%, the most since July 16, after the Japanese film and TV company announced its third quarter earnings and appeared bullish about its upcoming movie releases.
• Toyota Industries Corp. shares rise as much as 6.8% to ¥19,255, higher than the revised tender offer price of ¥18,800 from the Toyota group

In FX, the yen was able to claw back losses versus the dollar after a report that the BOJ is increasingly focused on the weak currency. Bloomberg Dollar Index is flat. The pound is down despite a beat for monthly UK GDP.

In rates, treasuries hold small losses amid similar price action in European government bonds as US stock futures climb. Front-end tenors lead gilts selloff after UK GDP beat estimates, curbing wagers on BOE rate cuts. US session includes weekly jobless claims data and five scheduled Fed speakers. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper with belly leading losses, flattening 5s30s spread by 1.2bp; 10-year at 4.15% is near session high, 2bp cheaper on the day, with UK front-end yields higher by 4bps. IG dollar new-issue slate includes five names so far; seven borrowers priced a combined $12.65 billion Wednesday, led by JPMorgan with a three-part, $6 billion offering. Issuers paid negative concessions on deals that were 5.6 times oversubscribed. US, German and UK 10-year yields are higher by 1-2 basis points. UK curve has bear-flattened post-GDP.

In commodities, spot gold and silver are lower but off worst levels following a slide during APAC hours. Crude futures fall after US President Donald Trump signaled he may refrain from attacking Iran for now. Bitcoin is down 0.8%. 

Today's US economic calendar includes January Empire manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed business outlook, November import/export prices, and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and November TIC flows (4pm). Scheduled Fed speakers include Goolsbee (8:30am), Bostic (8:35am), Barr (9:15am), Barkin (12:40pm) and Schmid (1:30pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.4%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX little changed, CAC 40 -0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.14%
• VIX -0.5 points at 16.22
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1210.7
• euro little changed at $1.1638
• WTI crude -4.5% at $59.24/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Oil fell for the first time in six days after Donald Trump signaled he may hold off on attacking Iran for now after being reassured that Tehran would stop killing people involved in protests. BBG
• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he has no plans to fire Jerome Powell despite a Justice Department criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, but it was "too early" to say what he would ultimately do. RTRS
• Volodymyr Zelenskiy is the main obstacle to an agreement to end Ukraine’s war with Russia, Trump claimed, telling Reuters that Vladimir Putin is “ready to make a deal.” BBG
• Nasdaq futures swung to a gain (NDX futs +85 bps pre mkt) after TSMC renewed confidence in AI demand, earmarking as much as $56 billion in capital spending for 2026. ASML’s shares rallied to a record on its client’s upbeat outlook. BBG
• The US is intensifying pressure on Mexico to allow US military forces to conduct joint operations to dismantle fentanyl labs inside the country. NYT
• Coinbase Global Inc. has pulled its support for the current version of the market-structure bill due for markup in the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Coinbase's CEO Brian Armstrong cited "too many issues" with the bill, including a defacto ban on tokenized equities and DeFi prohibitions. BBG
• China’s central bank rolled out targeted easing measures to bolster support for sectors deemed strategic by Beijing, as policymakers seek to ensure a strong start to the year. The PBOC will cut rates on its structural policy tools by 0.25 percentage point, lowering the rate on one-year relending facilities to 1.25%. WSJ
• Leaders of Japan's main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the lay Buddhist organization-backed Komeito agreed on Thursday to establish a new party bringing together "centrist forces" to fight a snap parliamentary election in February. Nikkei
• Hedge funds are betting the yen may slide to 165 a dollar before authorities intervene, with traders using options to position for a weakening currency. BBG
• BofA card spending, week to January 10th: +4.6% Y/Y (prev. 1.7%). Strong growth across most categories, partially due to favorable base effects.

Trade/Tariffs

• Japanese Finance Minister aims to make progress in selecting projects as part of Japan and US bound investment package if PM Takaichi meets with US President Trump. Fiscal reform is impossible with economic growth. said next years financial budgets reliance on debt is at a sustainable pace.
• Canada and China sign a trade cooperation MOU. Both sides committed to resolving outstanding agricultural trade issues by maintaining open channels of communication.
• Indian Trade Secretary on the India-EU trade deal negotiation said some agricultural items remain off the table.
• Indian Trade Secretary said a deal with the EU is very close but there's still room for further negotiations to solve various issues.
• China's Foreign Minister said they are ready to strengthen cooperation and trust with Canada.
• China is said to be drafting purchase rules for NVIDIA's (NVDA) H200 chips, Nikkei reported, as an attempt to balance its desire to foster domestic chip development with Chinese tech firms.
• Taiwan’s government said Taiwan and the US have previously held multiple discussions and reached consensus on preferential tariff treatment for semiconductors and related products under Section 232. Taiwan’s government said Taiwan will subsequently schedule a separate meeting with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to sign the Taiwan–US trade agreement documents.
• The White House said President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on certain advanced computing chips, such as NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 and AMD (AMD) MI325X chips. Depending on the outcome of negotiations, President Trump may consider alternative remedies in the future, including minimum import prices for specific types of critical minerals. The Secretary and the trade representative should consider price floors for trade in critical minerals and other trade-restricting measures. The US chip tariff will not apply to chips imported for US technology supply.
• The White House said that in the near future, US President Trump may impose broader tariffs on semiconductor imports and their derivative products.
• US President Trump ordered the Commerce Dept. and USTR to negotiate agreements with foreign suppliers to reduce US reliance on imported processed critical minerals, citing national security risks. Negotiators have 180 days to secure binding or enforceable agreements.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly in the green, outperforming their US counterparts, though the Nikkei lagged the region. ASX 200 continued its trend higher as mining and materials names advanced, supported by fresh ATHs in metals and news that Rio Tinto and BHP are collaborating on iron ore extraction in the Pilbara. Nikkei 225 underperformed, slipping back below 54,000 as reports that opposition parties CDP and Komeito have begun talks to form a new party weighed on sentiment. KOSPI traded comfortably in the green, extending to new ATHs and nearing 4,750, whilst the BoK kept rates steady as expected in a unanimous decision. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp saw mixed trade, with the Hang Seng hovering just below ATHs near 27,380 while the Shanghai Composite oscillated around the unchanged mark as Chinese markets struggled for traction.

Top Asian News

• Earthquake of magnitude 5.5 in the Hokkaido region in Japan, EMSC reported.

European equities (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened mixed to higher. AEX (+1%) outperforms, lifted by strong gains in ASML (+5.5%) following robust TSMC earnings & guidance, which showed a 35% jump in Q4 profit. European sectors are mixed. Tech (+1.7%) leads, driven by strength in ASML (+5.5%), while Financial Services (+1.2%) are boosted by post-earning strength in Partners (+6.2%). Consumer Products initially boosted by gains in Richemont (-2.2%), but the Co. has since slipped into negative territory. Q3 earnings were strong, but Richemont did highlight that rising material costs continuing to weigh on margins.

Top European News

• BoE Credit Conditions Survey: Demand for secured lending for remortgaging was unchanged in Q4, and was expected to increase in Q1. Within the overall figure, demand for credit card lending increased in Q4, and was expected to be unchanged in Q1. Demand for corporate lending in Q1 was expected to be unchanged for small, medium-sized, and large businesses.
• ECB's de Guindos said "it is very important for all of us that the principle of central bank independence is also applied to the Federal Reserve.".

Central Banks

• US President Trump said no plans to remove Fed Chair Powell.
• US President Trump rejects criticism from Senate Republicans of the Justice Department probe of Fed chair Jerome Powell and said “they should be loyal.”; speaks highly of Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh.
• BoJ is reportedly likely to keep rates steady in January; some officials are said to be concerned over the economic impact of a weak JPY, Bloomberg reported. If the JPY continues to weaken, then the pace of future rate hikes could be accelerated. But, policy will remain on hold in January. Possible that the negative aspects such as a further JPY depreciation and the impact on personal consumption, will become a point of concern.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said mechanism under which wages and prices rise moderately in tandem likely to be sustained. BoJ is expected to keep raising interest rates if targets are met.
• ECB's Kazaks said policy rates are optimally positioned as inflation trends improve. Warns that inflation and growth risks are balanced and emphasises the need for vigilance.
• PBoC cuts the one-year relending facility rate to 1.25% (prev. 1.50%), to increase tech innovation quotas by CNY 400bln to CNY 1.2tln. Central Bank to boost relending quotas to power tech innovation. Pledges continued liquidity support via open market tools. Overnight rates will be guided to hover near policy rates. Will maintain ample liquidity to support bond issuance. Will flexibly conduct government bond operation going forward. Lowers minimum down payment for commercial property loans to 30% to boost market inventory clearance. No intention to use currency depreciation for trade advantage. Will guide expectation and prevent overshooting in CNY risk.
• China's PBoC Deputy Governor announces plans to release a series of monetary and financial measures.
• Bank of Korea keeps Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected. Removes "potential rate cut" reference from the statement.
• BoK Governor Rhee said the Government is to make an announcement on the US trade deal and the FX market later in the day.
• BoK Governor Rhee said rate decision was unanimous, need to remain cautious on FX volatility. 5 members see a 'high chance' of a hold in the next 3 months, 1 sees a cut in the near-term. Addressing FX volatility requires immediate steps as well as structural reforms. A weak KRW is not likely to trigger any financial crisis and have ample amounts of USDs.

FX

• DXY is flat and trades within a very thin 99.08-23 range; currently just above its 50 DMA at 99.02. Focus overnight has been on geopols, whereby President Trump said Iran has “no plan” to execute protestors. Back in the US, Trump said he has no plans to remove Fed Chair Powell, whilst also speaking highly of the prospective new Fed Chairs Hassett and Warsh.
• GBP currently trades flat, within a 1.3423-1.3446 range; the peak for today is a handful of pips short of its 21 DMA at 1.3452. Some strength was seen in Cable following the region’s GDP series, which topped expectations and has Q4 GDP on track to surpass the BoE's forecast of no growth. Pantheon Macroeconomics said it expects UK growth to improve to 0.4% Q/Q in Q1 as Budget uncertainty fades, seasonality lifts the New Year, and September’s cyber-attack volatility limits spare capacity, keeping the MPC cautious.
• JPY is flat this morning, but subject to volatility, after Bloomberg reported that the BoJ is likely to keep rates steady in January; some officials are said to be concerned over the economic impact of a weak JPY. The piece added that if the JPY continues to weaken, then the pace of future rate hikes could be accelerated. But, policy will remain on hold in January. This spurred immediate pressure in USD/JPY, falling from 158.68 to 158.33.
• China's FX regulator will formulate a basket of policy measures to promote cross-border financing.

Fixed Income

• A contained start for fixed benchmarks. Haven allure that was helping on Wednesday has been removed by the updates around Iran (see Commodities for details).
• That aside, newsflow has been a little light and largely focused on nation-specifics rather than broader macro drivers; though, TSMC earnings are the exception, again, see the feed for details.
• USTs have spent the morning in a narrow 112-11 to 112-17+ band, Bunds in equally slim 128.23 to 128.46 confines with both benchmarks flat overall. However, a modest bullish bias is beginning to emerge, more so for EGBs than USTs, potentially as the morning's supply from Spain has now passed and was well received, digestion of the Ukraine-Russia-US situation and/or the pulling back of crude benchmarks weighing on yields. Though, the latter narrative is clouded by the gains in European gas.
• Gilts opened marginally softer and then slipped a few ticks further to a 92.67 base despite the firmer lead from EGBs. UK debt weighed on by strong GDP data for November, a series that has the Q4 trend tracking above the BoE's estimate of no growth for the period. However, this pressure proved shortlived with Gilts grinding higher and the marginal outperformer, posting upside of just over 10 ticks.
• Spain sold EUR 5.86bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.35% 2029 Bono & 3.50% 2041, 1.45% 2071 Bonds.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are on the back foot and remain near lows of USD 58.99/bbl and USD 63.46/bbl for WTI and Brent after some of the pressure was let out of the US-Iran situation. A move driven in late US hours by President Trump saying he had been told that the killing within Iran was stopping. However, we then saw some reports of explosions in Tehran, an update that sparked a short-lived spike of c. USD 0.50/bbl, before paring amid some uncertainty around the validity of that report.
• As discussed earlier in the week, gas benchmarks remain bid with gains of nearly a EUR/Mwh at a EUR 33/MWh peak for Dutch TTF. Drivers for the space include any potential impact to Iranian flows to Turkey, the above Ukraine situation escalating and the continued cold spell in Europe.
• Precious metals are broadly in the red this morning, following on from the subdued action seen overnight. Negative action this morning due to some unwinding of recent geopolitical risk premia after US President Trump said that he had been told the killing in Iran is stopping and that there is no plan for executions. As a reminder, the President had repeatedly threatened action against the Iranian regime, if they killed protestors. As it stands spot gold trades at the lower end of a USD 4,580.98-4,632.45/oz range.
• Base metals are also following precious peers lower; 3M LME Copper trades just above the USD 13k/t mark, in a USD 12,914-13,216.35/t range – downside which also follows the negative sentiment seen across the Chinese equities space.
• US Ambassador announces plan to work with Belgium on a USD 50bln LNG deal.
• The US is said to be considering private contractors to safeguard oil in Venezuela, CNN reported citing sources.
• US President Trump said it would be better for Venezuela to remain in OPEC but is unsure if this would be beneficial to the US.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

• US President Trump said Ukrainian President Zelensky is to blame for the current stalemate in Russia–Ukraine negotiations, adding that Russian President Putin is “ready to make a deal.”.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• "Flight restrictions in Iran lift, without explanation," AP reported.
• UN Security Council plans to meet with Iran at 15:00 EST / 20:00 GMT on Thursday, AFP reported.
• Iran has extended its airspace closure NOTAM until 03:30 UTC (~2 hours from now).
• US President Trump said Iran's government could fall due to unrest but "any regime can fail".
• US President Trump has told his National Security team that any US military action in Iran to be swift and decisive, NBC News reported citing sources; adds that a sustained war is undesirable. Trump's advisors have so far not been able to guarantee a quick collapse of Iran's regime.
• NOTAM over Iran has expired, according to reported.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said there have been many threats by US President Trump and others but we are in control, hopes tensions do not reach a high level; no plans to carry out executions against protestors. Not ready to give up our legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear technology.
• Iran issues NOTAM to close all airspace, according to reported; "NOTAM is valid for a little more than 2 hours"; closes airspace to all flights except international flights to Iran with prior permission.
• “All the signals are that a US attack [against Iran] is imminent, but that is also how this administration behaves to keep everyone on their toes. Unpredictability is part of the strategy,” Reuters reported, citing a Western military official.
• The X account which flagged the initial explosions in Tehran said they have deleted the post "as the source appears to be a bit flimsy, though reporting on any potential action is going to be difficult due to the ongoing internet blackout across Iran".
• US President Trump has made it clear to the National Security team his goals for any US military action in Iran, NBC news reported.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) MECL service returns to trans-Suez route; following improved stability in the Red Sea, enabling more efficient transit times while maintaining safety as the top priority.

Geopolitics: Other

• Colombia President Petro is to meet with US President Trump on February 3rd.
• US President Trump posted "had a very good call with the Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez. We are making tremendous progress, as we help Venezuela stabilize and recover.". "Many topics were discussed, including Oil, Minerals, Trade and, of course, National Security.".
• The US Senate votes 51-50 in favour to allow US President Trump to act on Venezuela military action without Congressional approval; VP Vance casting the deciding vote.
• Chinese officials have reached out to counterparts in Venezuela and the US to seek assurances regarding their loans to Venezuela, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan Empire Manufacturing, est. 1, prior -3.9
• 8:30 am: United States Jan Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. -1.35, prior -10.2, revised -8.8
• 8:30 am: United States Jan 10 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215k, prior 208k
• 8:30 am: United States Jan 3 Continuing Claims, est. 1897k, prior 1914k
• 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC
• 8:35 am: United States Fed’s Bostic Delivers Remarks at Metro Atlanta Chamber
• 9:15 am: United States Fed’s Barr in Penal Discussion on Stablecoins
• 12:40 pm: United States Fed’s Tom Barkin Speaks on Virginia Economic Outlook
• 4:00 pm: United States Nov Total Net TIC Flows, prior -37.3b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets faced a growing array of geopolitical risks yesterday, with oil prices seeing large swings as investors focused on the latest developments in Iran. At one point, Brent crude even reached its highest intraday level since September as speculation about a US intervention gathered pace, at $66.82/bbl, but this morning it’s fallen back to $64.24/bbl after Trump suggested he’d hold off an attack for now. That also led to huge swings in precious metals, with yesterday seeing new records for gold (+0.87% to $4,627/oz) and silver (+7.14% to $93.16/oz), before they also came down this morning after Trump held off on imposing tariffs on critical minerals. Otherwise, the main equity story was a slide for tech stocks, with the Mag 7 (-1.56%) pushing down the S&P 500 (-0.53%). But despite all that, there was still a lot of resilience among equities more broadly, as most of the S&P’s constituents still advanced, pushing the equal-weighted index (+0.40%) to a record high, alongside a new record for Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.18%). So, for now at least, most equities have been unfazed by the geopolitical developments.

In terms of those various market drivers, Iran was the main story yesterday as oil prices reacted to different headlines. The initial surge was caused by a Reuters report, which said that some personnel had been advised to leave the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. That was significant because the base previously saw an Iranian missile attack last June, so the story added to fears that some sort of escalation might take place imminently. However, Trump later downplayed the magnitude of tensions, saying “we’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping — it’s stopped… And there’s no plan for executions”. So that was taken as a signal that the US might hold off on a potential military response, with Brent falling by $3 in just over half an hour before partially recovering. There’s clearly lingering caution, not least given the unexpected timing of US strikes on Iran in June 2025, and at $64.24 this morning Brent crude is still clearly above its lows below $60/bbl last week, but Trump’s comments had a clear impact. Bear in mind as well that Iran is a more significant oil producer than Venezuela, producing 4% of the world’s total in 2023, so developments there have the potential for wider spillovers in the oil market.

In the meantime, there were fresh headlines on Greenland, as Trump posted that “The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security.” That came ahead of a meeting between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio with the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland. After the meeting, the sides agreed to set up working groups to see if a way forward could be found, but Denmark’s foreign minister said that they “still have a fundamental disagreement” with the US, adding that demands that would violate Denmark and Greenland’s sovereignty were “totally unacceptable”.

Whilst the geopolitical developments had a big impact in commodity markets, there wasn’t much direct effect on bond and equity markets. Admittedly, the S&P 500 was down -0.53% yesterday, but that was because of a slump for tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 down -1.56%, in contrast to most of the S&P’s constituents which rose yesterday, with 318 moving higher. So we saw more of the rotation pattern at play since the start of the year, with the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.70%) hitting a new record as it outperformed the S&P 500 for the ninth session in a row. Indeed, the Russell 2000 is now up +6.84% YTD, in contrast to a -1.49% decline for the Mag-7. Otherwise, there was ongoing weakness among US banks, with the KBW Bank index (-0.70%) down for a 4th consecutive session, which came as Wells Fargo (-4.31%), Citigroup (-3.89%) and Bank of America (-2.06%) all fell back after their latest earnings reports.

In the meantime, it was a very strong session for US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield (-2.3bps) falling to 3.51%, whilst the 10yr yield (-4.7bps) posted its biggest decline in almost two months, down to 4.13%. That came as investors priced in more rate cuts ahead, with futures now pricing in 54bps of cuts by the December meeting, up +1.8bps on the day. Interestingly, that was despite some hawkish comments from Fed officials, with Minneapolis Fed Kashkari expressing concern on inflation in an NYT interview, saying that it was “entirely plausible that we are sitting here well above our target for two to three more years”, and “Then we’re looking at seven or eight years of elevated inflation. That’s very concerning to me.” On similar lines, Atlanta Fed President Bostic also said that “The inflation challenge has not been won yet”. But Philadelphia President Paulson said that she saw “inflation moderating, the labor market stabilizing and growth coming in around 2% this year”, and that if that happened, “some modest further adjustments to the funds rate would likely be appropriate later in the year”.

In Asia, the main news yesterday came from Japan, where it looks increasingly as though Prime Minister Takaichi is going to call a snap election. That hasn’t been officially confirmed, but Hirofumi Yoshimura, who is the leader of the Japan Innovation Party, said that Takaichi had told colleagues that she’d be dissolving the lower house soon after it reconvenes on Jan 23. Nevertheless, Japanese assets had already reacted to the speculation, and this morning the 10yr yield has come off of its post-1999 high the previous day, down -1.7bps to 2.15%. That’s also despite BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments which reiterated that rates would keep rising if its outlook were realised. Otherwise in Asia, several equity indices are down this morning, including the Nikkei (-0.82%), the Hang Seng (-0.48%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.46%) and the CSI 300 (-0.07%). However, in South Korea, the KOSPI (+1.38%) has continued to outperform, on track for another record high this morning. Looking forward, US equity futures are basically steady, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.01%.

Earlier in Europe, markets had put in a relatively stronger performance, with both the STOXX 600 (+0.18%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.46%) moving up to new records. However, the DAX (-0.53%) was a relative underperformer, ending a run of 11 consecutive daily gains. Meanwhile for bonds, there was also a rally across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.3bps), OATs (-3.1bps) and BTPs (-2.9bps) all moving lower. UK gilts were a particular outperformer, with the 10yr yield (-5.8bps) falling to its lowest since December 2024, at 4.34%.

Finally yesterday, we also had a few US data releases that were delayed by the government shutdown. First, the November retail sales were a bit stronger than expected at +0.6% (vs. +0.5% expected). Then for PPI inflation, the headline measure was running at +0.2% as expected in November, with the year-on-year measure at +3.0%. And existing home sales came in at an annualised rate of 4.35m in December (vs. 4.22m expected), which was their fastest pace since early 2023. Otherwise, the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow update is now estimating Q4 GDP growth at an annualised pace of +5.3%, up from +5.1% before.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for November. Then in the US, we’ll get the weekly initial jobless claims, the Empire State manufacturing survey for January, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for January. From central banks, the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Panetta, and the Fed’s Bostic, Barr, Barkin and Schmid. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 08:30

Oil, Precious Metals Tumble After Report Signaling No Imminent Action Against Iran

With traders across the globe refreshing their X accounts every 3 seconds, expecting to see news of imminent "kinetic action" in Iran, what they got instead was a report from NBC which indicated that military action is far from certain, and at best could take days before it is launched.

According to the report which cites multiple anonymous sources - including a U.S. official, two people familiar with the discussions and a person close to the White House - Trump has told his national security team that "he would want any U.S. military action in Iran to deliver a swift and decisive blow to the regime and not spark a sustained war that dragged on for weeks or months."

“If he does something, he wants it to be definitive,” one of the people familiar with the discussions said.

The punchline: Trump’s advisers have so far not been able to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after an American military strike, and there is concern that the U.S. may not have all the assets in the region it would need to guard against what administration officials expect would be an aggressive Iranian response.

Indeed, earlier today we showed that US aircraft carriers - so critical in supporting any type of operation against Iran - are days away from reaching the gulf, which means that any full-blown assault would likely have to be delayed. 

US aircraft carriers around the globe (USS Theodore Roosevelt - CVN 71 is leaving San Diego) pic.twitter.com/IUqByeuBge

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 15, 2026

It also means that as we suggested earlier, the current dynamics "could lead Trump to approve a more limited U.S. military offensive in Iran, at least initially, while reserving options to escalate — if he decides to take any military action at all," said the U.S. official and one of the people familiar with the discussions.

They also said that it is a fast-evolving situation and that as of Wednesday afternoon no decisions had been made. During a visit to Detroit on Tuesday, Trump told protesting Iranians that “help is on its way” and called the situation in the country “fragile.”

Meanwhile, the question of what happens to the power vacuum in Iran has also reared its head, and in a separate report, Trump told Reuters on Wednesday that while Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi "seems very nice", he expressed uncertainty over whether Pahlavi would be able to muster support within Iran to eventually take over.

In other words the CIA does not have a ready plan for who will step in to fill the power vacuum once the current regime is forced out. 

Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene in support of protesters in Iran, where thousands of people have been reported killed in a crackdown on the unrest against clerical rule. But he was reluctant on Wednesday to lend his full support to Pahlavi, the son of the late shah of Iran, who was ousted from power in 1979.

"He seems very nice, but I don't know how he'd play within his own country," Trump said. "And we really aren't up to that point yet.

"I don't know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me."

Trump's comments went further in questioning Pahlavi's ability to lead Iran after saying last week that he had no plans to meet with him.

Trump also said it is possible the government in Tehran could fall due to the protests but that in truth "any regime can fail."

"Whether or not it falls or not, it's going to be an interesting period of time," he said.

Trump's comments to Reuters and the NBC report have effectively eliminated the probability of an imminent action, and as a result crude oil, which was rising again on geopolitical fears, tumbled with WTI set to dip below $60 after trading above it all day...

... while silver plunged as much as $6, from $92 to $86, in seconds as stop loss selling kicked in, in a preview of how painful the unwind of the current historic rally will eventually be.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 08:24

TSMC's Bullish AI Outlook Prompts Goldman To Say 'Anyone Hoping For A Pullback Will Get Disappointed'

Europe's semiconductor stocks moved higher on Thursday, with ASML Holdings surging to a record high after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported a 35% jump in fourth-quarter profit and signaled plans to boost capital spending by nearly 40% this year.

TSMC, a supplier to tech giants including Nvidia and Apple, raised its 2026 capex guidance to $52 billion to $56 billion, up from a previous estimate of $40 billion. Management also indicated that the three-year investment plan will be significantly higher, reducing the likelihood of a near-term pullback in spending.

"Our business in the fourth quarter was supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies," said Wendell Huang, Senior VP and CFO of TSMC. "Moving into first quarter 2026, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies."

It reported a net profit of $16 billion for the October-December quarter, a 35% surge from a year earlier, exceeding analysts' average estimates.

"We expect our business to be supported by continuous strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies," Huang said. He said spending would be "significantly higher" in the next three years.

An analyst asked TSMC chairman and CEO C. C. Wei about the risk that the AI investment cycle is a bubble. Wei replied, "I'm also very nervous about it, you bet ... AI is real. Not only real, but it's also starting to grow into our daily life."

Earlier, Goldman analyst Sean Johnstone told clients, "Anyone hoping for a pullback is going to be disappointed."

Johnstone continued:

SEMICAP/AI POSTIVE as TSMC has been seen as major bottleneck for AI given how cautious mgt have been and now its raised capex ABOVE the bulls expectations. There was lots of debate in on the name in esp. around capex its guided well above both sellside and buyside at $52-56bn and saying the 3 year will be significantly higher. For 2026 sellside was $45-46bn, Buyside $47-52bn hoping the 2026 initial guidance range would include a $50bn. Anyone hoping for a pullback is going to be disappointed.

Q4 beat on GM at 62.3% street just over 60%, and operating profit at 54% (Street 51%). Guides Q1 above: 1Q rev +4% q/q or +38% y/y (Q1 guide is top end of bulls plus its guided FY at 30% - bulls expected TSMC to guide to 25% and walk it up over the year. The 5 year CAGR of 25%); GM further expands q/q to 63-65% driven by higher UTR and cost efficiencies, OM 54-55%. Overseas fab expansion would be the dilute from 2h26 by 2-3ppt. Capex FY25 was$40.9bn…. Note VAT an underweight for many saw orders beat this morning and GIR expect to see MSD u/g to cons, real risk of a squeeze

MORE +VE PRESS:SK Hynix is speeding up new fab operations to meet surging DRAM memory chip demand, Reuters reports, citing CEO Sungsoo Ryu. OpenAI's first AI chip, Titan, will launch by end-2026, media report. Co-developed with Broadcom, it will be made on TSMC's 3nm mfg process. Titan II, the next-gen chip, will use TSMC's A16 process. OpenAI has tapped Samsung's 2nm Exynos chip for its AI earbuds, 'Sweetpea'. Intel is reported evaluating price hike for its server CPU following AMD who raised CPU including Ryzen 9000 earlier more pressure on PC names

Software remained under pressure yesterday and today TSMC numbers likely to exacerbate the software vs. Semis vs. trade already -15% ytd. Plus sentiment not helped with Claude Cowork

In markets, the Taiwan Stock Exchange closed up 80 bps at 30,941. TSMC's earnings provided a bullish start for European chip stocks, notably ASML, and US chip companies, which moved higher in premarket trading. TSM shares in New York are up 6%.

This is certainly not the earnings report AI bubble bears were hoping for, as Goldman analysts echoed one another, saying that anyone hoping for a pullback is unlikely to get it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 08:10

Witkoff Announces Start Of 2nd Phase Of Gaza Peace Plan

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Presidential peace envoy Steve Witkoff, on Jan. 14, announced the start of the second phase of President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan.

Displaced Palestinians walk through floodwaters following heavy rains in Gaza City on Dec. 15, 2025. Omar al-Qattaa/AFP via Getty Images

In an X post on Wednesday, Witkoff said the second phase will move Gaza from an initial cease-fire into a period that will see the demilitarization of Hamas and the establishment of a technocratic governance model.

He said the second phase will also see the start of reconstruction for the war-torn territory.

Today, on behalf of President Trump, we are announcing the launch of Phase Two of the President’s 20-Point Plan to End the Gaza Conflict, moving from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction.

Phase Two establishes a transitional technocratic…

— Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (@SEPeaceMissions) January 14, 2026

The Gaza peace plan began in October, and the overall strategy is supposed to proceed in three phases and achieve the 20-point plan Trump laid out in September.

“Phase Two establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), and begins the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel,” Witkoff wrote.

It remains unclear who will comprise Gaza’s interim government. Trump has repeatedly described this government as the Gaza “Board of Peace” and said he will chair the body.

Trump’s 20-point plan includes an offer of amnesty for Hamas members who willingly lay down their arms, as well as an offer of safe passage for Hamas members seeking to leave the territory.

The scope of Gaza’s reconstruction is also unclear.

In October, a representative for the United Nations’ Development Programme shared an estimate that Gaza had sustained around $70 billion in damages over the course of more than two years of conflict.

The first phase of the deal was supposed to include the release of all Israeli hostages, living and dead, held by Hamas.

Thus far, Hamas has returned the remains of 27 out of 28 deceased hostages.

Witkoff warned that Hamas must return the remains of the last person.

“The United States expects Hamas to comply fully with its obligations, including the immediate return of the final deceased hostage. Failure to do so will bring serious consequences,” Witkoff wrote.

Israel and Hamas have traded accusations of other cease-fire violations since October.

On Oct.19, the Israeli military accused Hamas of firing on and carrying out an explosive attack on Israeli troops operating in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip, killing two of their soldiers. Hamas’s armed wing denied knowledge of the attack and said it had lost contact with its forces in Rafah.

On Dec. 13, Israeli forces carried out a lethal airstrike targeting a Hamas commander they said was involved in continuing efforts to procure weapons and undermine the cease-fire. Hamas said civilians were killed in a strike that day, and argued Israeli military’s operations were undermining cease-fire efforts.

This is a developing story and will be updated with additional details.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 07:55

US Navy Sailor Sentenced To Nearly 17 Years In Prison For Selling Military Secrets To China

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A former U.S. Navy sailor who had been found guilty of providing the Chinese communist regime with sensitive U.S. military information in exchange for money was sentenced to 200 months in prison, the Justice Department said on Monday.

The Department of Justice in Washington on Feb. 12, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Wei Jinchao, also known as Patrick Wei, was arrested on espionage charges in August 2023 after reporting for duty aboard the USS Essex, an amphibious assault ship based in San Diego.

Wei, a naturalized U.S. citizen, was convicted by a federal jury in San Diego of espionage and five other criminal counts, including conspiracy to commit espionage, and unlawful export of, and conspiracy to export, technical data related to defense articles in violation of the Arms Export Control Act and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, after a five-day trial in August 2025.

Prosecutors had asked the court to sentence Wei to 21 years and 10 months in prison, arguing that his actions jeopardized U.S. national security and betrayed the country that granted him citizenship.

“Defendant compromised the U.S. Navy’s entire fleet of amphibious assault ships by sending the Chinese Government thousands of pages of technical information about the fleet’s complex ship systems and how the U.S. Navy operates and maintains those systems,” Assistant U.S. Attorney John Parmley wrote in a government sentencing memorandum filed earlier this month.

“It is a betrayal of America and its people, and it often puts real lives at risk. It also can cost the Government huge amounts of money when it must adjust its military planning, operations, and tactics to account for compromises in informational security.”

In a letter submitted to the court before sentencing, his mother, Wei Mingli, appealed for leniency, recounting the hardships her son faced growing up. She said that he was raised without a father and left home around age 10 to attend boarding school because she had to care for her ailing mother at the time. She portrayed her son as a “devoted Christian” and a kind person who continued to help others, even while in custody.

Patrick Wei’s attorney had sought a much lighter sentence of two years and six months. Wei also wrote a letter to the court expressing remorse for sharing information with an individual he said he once considered a friend.

Now 25 years old, Wei apologized for “wasting taxpayers’ money and eroding people’s trust” in him, and pleaded for “love and mercy” in determining the sentence.

“Yes, I screwed up,” he wrote. “If you could find in yourself to be able to show me some love and mercy in your Honorable conclusion, I would, without fear of contradiction, pay it forward and help others for the rest of my life.”

Details

According to the indictment, Wei was recruited through social media by a Chinese intelligence officer posing as a naval enthusiast affiliated with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, a state-owned giant shipbuilder, in February 2022.

About a week later, Wei confided in a friend in the U.S. Navy that the Chinese officer had offered him $500 for daily information on which ships were docked at the San Diego base. Wei told his friend that he was “no idiot” and that what he was being asked to do was commit espionage.

At the time, Wei was a petty officer and worked as a machinist’s mate, which gave him access to sensitive national defense information, including data on U.S. Navy ships and their weapons, according to court documents.

Prosecutors said that, starting in March 2022, Wei sent the Chinese intelligence officer multiple photos and videos of the Essex, along with information about the ship’s defensive weapon systems.

In May 2022, the Chinese officer sent him money and congratulated him on becoming a naturalized U.S. citizen.

In June 2022, Wei provided 30 technical and mechanical manuals containing export-control warnings and details of various operational systems aboard the Essex and similar U.S. Navy vessels, including power, steering, aircraft, and deck elevators, as well as damage and casualty control.

In return for transmitting these documents, Wei received $5,000. The Chinese officer informed Wei that 10 of the manuals he provided had not been seen before and were “proved useful,” according to his indictment.

During that same month, the Chinese officer specifically requested that Wei provide information about the number and training of U.S. Marines participating in an international maritime warfare exercise, as well as photographs of military equipment. Wei complied by sending several images of military hardware.

In August 2022, Wei received $1,200 from the Chinese intelligence officer after passing along another 26 documents detailing the power structures and operations of the Essex and similar vessels, which contained data subject to export controls and information classified as “critical technology” by the U.S. Navy.

Wei continued to transmit other sensitive data to the officer throughout 2023, including information about the layout and location of weapons systems, repairs to the Essex, and mechanical vulnerabilities of similar vessels. The officer instructed Wei to keep their relationship discreet and to destroy any evidence that could reveal their activities.

In the press release announcing the sentence against Wei, Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Eisenberg said: “Wei swore loyalty to the United States when he joined the Navy and reaffirmed that oath when he became a citizen. He then accepted the solemn responsibility of protecting this Nation’s secrets when the United States entrusted him with sensitive Navy information.

“He made a mockery of these commitments when he chose to endanger our Nation and our servicemembers by selling U.S. military secrets to a Chinese intelligence officer for personal profit. Today’s sentence reflects our commitment to ensuring those who sell our Nation’s secrets pay a very high price for their betrayal.”

Roman Rozhavsky, assistant director of the FBI’s counterintelligence division, said the sentencing served as “a reminder that those who choose to put personal gain above their oath and the safety of our nation will be brought to justice.”

FBI Director Kash Patel also pledged to collaborate with other agencies to defend the United States against foreign intelligence threats.

“If you betray the United States, endanger our warfighters, and put personal profit over your oath, you will be found, you will be exposed, and you will pay a heavy price,” Patel wrote on X.

On the same day Wei was arrested, another U.S. Navy sailor, Zhao Wenheng, who was based out of Naval Base Ventura County in California, was also taken into custody. Zhao, also found guilty of selling military secrets to China, was sentenced to 27 months in prison in January 2024.

Frank Fang and Eva Fu contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 07:15

Are Deportations Making Affordability A Winning Issue For The GOP?

Democrats entered 2026 confident they could make “affordability” the rallying cry that would win back suburban voters and propel them back into the majority. But an inconvenient political twist has upended that plan: Donald Trump is the one actually delivering on affordability - and doing it in ways his opponents are almost certain to despise.

The foundation of this shift is the administration’s aggressive crackdown on immigration. ICE deportations under Trump have sharply reduced the number of illegal migrants in the country - which, according to the White House - is easing the enormous housing demand that exploded under Joe Biden thanks to his open borders policies. 

In short, rents and home prices in many major metro areas are becoming more affordable. Though we would of course note that correlation is not necessarily causation.

FACT: In 14 of the top 20 metro areas with the largest illegal migrant populations, home list prices DECLINED year-over-year in December.

The three metro areas that saw modest price increases are all "sanctuary cities."

Mass deportations = lower housing costs for Americans. pic.twitter.com/63BLWCYhnF

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) January 12, 2026

According to new estimates from Brookings Institution economists, more immigrants left the United States than entered last year - the first time that’s happened in at least five decades. Net migration fell by between 10,000 and 295,000 in 2025, driven by everything from a near-closure of the southern border to tightened visa limits, new fees, and the suspension of nearly all refugee programs. 

Economists and industry experts say the housing impact is already being felt. 

For example, in San Antonio, developers built aggressively in 2025, expecting another surge of migrant renters. That didn’t happen, so landlords began slashing prices to fill new units. Kevin Lynn, founder of U.S. Tech Workers and a long-time critic of large-scale visa programs, called it basic economics. “When you crack down on immigration, legal and illegal, housing costs naturally drop,” he told Breitbart, describing the decline as a textbook case of supply and demand.

Lynn pointed to Lancaster County, Pennsylvania - a community once labeled “the refugee capital of America.” There, he said, newly renovated apartments are now being advertised with three months of free rent because demand from immigrants has vanished. “This is what happens when you take the immigrants out of the equation,” Lynn said.

It’s a stark reversal from the years under Joe Biden, when roughly 14 million legal and illegal migrants entered the country, coinciding with surging rents and home prices that outpaced wage growth. Now that the pressure is easing, the administration has an answer ready for Democrats hoping to campaign on “affordability.” Trump’s team is framing border enforcement not only as a public-safety measure but as a direct economic benefit for working households.

“Rents are down. You know the story that the Biden administration doesn’t want to talk about: The mass unfettered immigration that pushed up rents, especially for working Americans,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month. “The connection between illegal immigration and skyrocketing housing costs is as clear as day.” 

The White House clearly believes this narrative could neutralize one of the Democrats’ key talking points heading into the midterms. 

Falling rents, rising wages, and higher labor participation are giving younger voters something they’ve struggled to find for years: a sense of stability. Lower immigration is also contributing to reduced crime and drug deaths, further tying economic security to Trump’s immigration policies.

And then there’s the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the administration believes will play a huge role in giving Americans the relief they’ve been craving. The legislation aims to lock in lower individual and corporate tax rates, expand full business expensing, and let voters see more of their paychecks. The administration describes it as a direct strike on the cost-of-living crisis.

Other key provisions include higher SALT deduction caps for homeowners, no tax on tips and overtime, and a modest expansion of charitable deductions. Seniors will also see new tax breaks on Social Security income. Buyers of U.S.-made vehicles would get fresh incentives. Each piece will show that while Democrats talk the talk on “affordability” the GOP walks the walk.

Democrats built their midterm plans around the assumption that they could own the affordability issue. Trump is instead redefining it on his terms: fewer migrants competing for jobs and housing, stronger wages, cheaper rents, and more disposable income. Republicans hope that by the time voters head to the polls, “affordability” may no longer be a Democratic talking point. And it might just work.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 06:45

My morning train WFH reads:

• For Years, Powell Avoided Fighting Trump. That’s Over. After receiving grand jury subpoenas Friday, Powell spent the weekend deciding how to respond. By Sunday, he had his answer. (Wall Street Journal)

• The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market: For the first time since 2020, the share of U.S. homeowners with mortgages set at 6% and higher, exceeds those with mortgages below 3%. (Axi0s) but see also Why almost none of the homes burned in LA have been rebuilt since last year’s fires: The wildfires destroyed 13,000 homes. In Los AngelesCounty, just seven have been rebuilt; of the 22,500 homes lost in the most destructive fires between 2017 and 2020, only 38% have been rebuilt to date. (Grist)

• U.S workers just took home their smallest share of capital since 1947, at least: Decades of Tax Cuts and Oligopoly rule have undone all of the post World War Two MiddleClass economic gains. (Fortune)

• How have prices changed in a year? NPR checked 114 items at Walmart: The past year also brought a global trade war, as President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly all imports. And the world continued to grapple with extreme weather, from droughts to downpours. (NPR)

• The Curious Cult of Aldi: How an 80-year-old German discount chain became America’s hottest grocer. (Businessweek)

• Florida Explores Ditching Property Tax as Home Prices Soar: State lawmakers have filed a raft of bills aimed at reducing property taxes—or gutting them altogether (Wall Street Journal)

• Crispr Pioneer Launches Startup to Make Tailored Gene-Editing Treatments: Aurora Therapeutics, cofounded by Nobel Prize–winning scientist Jennifer Doudna, plans to use gene editing and a new FDA regulatory pathway to commercialize treatments for rare diseases. (Wired)

• The Biggest Myth About Trump’s Base (And Why Many Believe It): The MAGA faithful aren’t deserting their leader. (The Atlantic)

• Here’s Why the Iranian Regime Seems Invincible: And why it shouldn’t stop the citizens currently fighting for freedom. (Persuasion)

• Peter Gabriel Lines Up a New Year of Lunar Releases: With o\i The singer will drop a new single every month in 2026. (Pitchfork)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Nobel laureate Richard Thaler and his University of Chicago Booth School colleague Alex Imas on the update and reissue of his classic book The Winner’s Curse.

My Favorite Performance Chart For 2025

Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

 

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