National Mall Vandalized With '8647' Markings Ahead Of Independence Celebrations

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Park Police and federal officials opened an investigation Thursday after a sizable marking resembling “8647” was etched into the lawn of the National Mall.

The incident occurred amid preparations for major events celebrating the nation’s 250th anniversary of independence.

A Reuters photographer witnessed the marking from atop the Washington Monument before authorities, including members of the National Guard, arrived on scene near the World War II Memorial. The numbers, formed by discolored or browned grass against the surrounding grass, appeared to be massive.

The phrase “8647” comes from the restaurant slang “86,” which means to remove or get rid of, combined with 47 to reference President Donald Trump, currently sitting as the 47th president. Trump allies and the Department of Justice have interpreted the prevalence of the phrase as potential calls to violence as opposed to mere political expression.

An Interior Department spokesperson said in a statement that the act was “deranged vandalism.”

“Any threat against the president is taken very seriously by the Department, and our U.S. Park Police will investigate this incident and hold those responsible accountable,” the spokesperson said.

The U.S. Park Police said the cause of the grass discoloration has yet to be determined, though samples have been taken for testing as part of the continuing investigation.

This latest episode follows a previous high-profile case: the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey on charges related to a social media post in 2025 featuring seashells arranged as “8647.”

“Threatening the life of the president of the United States will never be tolerated by the Department of Justice,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in April this year.

“Over the past year, this department has charged dozens of cases involving threats against all sorts of individuals. We take these seriously, every single one of them.”

Federal prosecutors tied the term to alleged threats against the president. Comey contended that his actions were not intended as such, and he challenged the accusations on free speech grounds.

“A child knows what that meant,” Trump said in May 2025. “If you’re the FBI director and you don’t know what that meant, that meant assassination, and it says it loud and clear.”

The National Mall has hosted recent events such as the “Rededicate 250“ prayer celebration earlier this year, which attracted thousands to the grounds for a meditation on the nation’s founding principles.

Preparations are underway for Independence Day festivities, including military parades, museum exhibitions, and public programs honoring America’s heritage.

Trump has pledged to refurbish the Mall, encompassing efforts to restore features like the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and plans for the semiquincentennial celebrations, with a “Great American State Fair“ set to begin later this month.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:20

National Mall Vandalized With '8647' Markings Ahead Of Independence Celebrations

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Park Police and federal officials opened an investigation Thursday after a sizable marking resembling “8647” was etched into the lawn of the National Mall.

The incident occurred amid preparations for major events celebrating the nation’s 250th anniversary of independence.

A Reuters photographer witnessed the marking from atop the Washington Monument before authorities, including members of the National Guard, arrived on scene near the World War II Memorial. The numbers, formed by discolored or browned grass against the surrounding grass, appeared to be massive.

The phrase “8647” comes from the restaurant slang “86,” which means to remove or get rid of, combined with 47 to reference President Donald Trump, currently sitting as the 47th president. Trump allies and the Department of Justice have interpreted the prevalence of the phrase as potential calls to violence as opposed to mere political expression.

An Interior Department spokesperson said in a statement that the act was “deranged vandalism.”

“Any threat against the president is taken very seriously by the Department, and our U.S. Park Police will investigate this incident and hold those responsible accountable,” the spokesperson said.

The U.S. Park Police said the cause of the grass discoloration has yet to be determined, though samples have been taken for testing as part of the continuing investigation.

This latest episode follows a previous high-profile case: the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey on charges related to a social media post in 2025 featuring seashells arranged as “8647.”

“Threatening the life of the president of the United States will never be tolerated by the Department of Justice,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in April this year.

“Over the past year, this department has charged dozens of cases involving threats against all sorts of individuals. We take these seriously, every single one of them.”

Federal prosecutors tied the term to alleged threats against the president. Comey contended that his actions were not intended as such, and he challenged the accusations on free speech grounds.

“A child knows what that meant,” Trump said in May 2025. “If you’re the FBI director and you don’t know what that meant, that meant assassination, and it says it loud and clear.”

The National Mall has hosted recent events such as the “Rededicate 250“ prayer celebration earlier this year, which attracted thousands to the grounds for a meditation on the nation’s founding principles.

Preparations are underway for Independence Day festivities, including military parades, museum exhibitions, and public programs honoring America’s heritage.

Trump has pledged to refurbish the Mall, encompassing efforts to restore features like the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and plans for the semiquincentennial celebrations, with a “Great American State Fair“ set to begin later this month.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:20

UMich Sentiment Bounces Off Record Low In June, Inflation Fears Fade

After reaching all-time record lows in May, analysts expected UMich's Sentiment index to rebound modestly in preliminary June data and it did, up from 44.8 to 48.9 (well above 46.0 exp), with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices.

Source: Bloomberg

"This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, adding that "lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets."

Well that will wreck the Democrats narrative...

Inflation expectations dropped in this early June data...

Once again we are confused because while the headline UMich inflation expectation over the next year declined, all political parties saw higher expectations (and Independents now have a higher inflation expectation that Democrats while Republican expectations are rising)...

Are they just making this shit up?

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:11

UMich Sentiment Bounces Off Record Low In June, Inflation Fears Fade

After reaching all-time record lows in May, analysts expected UMich's Sentiment index to rebound modestly in preliminary June data and it did, up from 44.8 to 48.9 (well above 46.0 exp), with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices.

Source: Bloomberg

"This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, adding that "lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets."

Well that will wreck the Democrats narrative...

Inflation expectations dropped in this early June data...

Once again we are confused because while the headline UMich inflation expectation over the next year declined, all political parties saw higher expectations (and Independents now have a higher inflation expectation that Democrats while Republican expectations are rising)...

Are they just making this shit up?

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:11

Kennedy Center Appeals Order Requiring Removal Of Trump's Name

Via American Greatness,

The Kennedy Center’s board of trustees voted Thursday to challenge a federal judge’s order requiring President Donald Trump’s name to be removed from the performing arts center.

According to court filings, the board formally appealed US District Judge Christopher Cooper’s ruling just before the court-imposed deadline for removing Trump’s name from the building and related materials.

Earlier Thursday, the board also voted to seek a stay of Cooper’s order, according to two individuals familiar with the meeting who spoke to The Washington Post.

To obtain a stay, attorneys for the center must demonstrate a likelihood of success on appeal and argue that removing Trump’s name would cause irreparable harm.

The dispute stems from Cooper’s earlier ruling against the Trump administration and the Kennedy Center board.

The judge ordered Trump’s name removed from the exterior of the building, the center’s website, merchandise and other materials associated with the institution. Cooper also blocked a planned two-year closure for renovations, finding the move unlawful.

The court had given the Kennedy Center until June 12 to comply with the order.

Cooper sided with Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-OH, an ex officio member of the board who challenged the decision to rename the center.

The judge concluded that Congress established the institution as a living memorial to President John F. Kennedy following his assassination and that the board lacked the authority to alter that designation.

Before filing its appeal, Kennedy Center officials indicated they would comply with the court’s order while weighing further legal action.

“We are complying with the court’s order while evaluating all legal options to preserve this revitalization and recognize President Trump’s leadership,” Roma Daravi, the center’s vice president of public relations, previously said.

The center has already removed Trump’s name from several official platforms, including its website, YouTube channel and invitations to its annual honors ceremony.

However, references to Trump remained visible Thursday on the Kennedy Center’s Instagram, Facebook and X social media accounts.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:00

Kennedy Center Appeals Order Requiring Removal Of Trump's Name

Via American Greatness,

The Kennedy Center’s board of trustees voted Thursday to challenge a federal judge’s order requiring President Donald Trump’s name to be removed from the performing arts center.

According to court filings, the board formally appealed US District Judge Christopher Cooper’s ruling just before the court-imposed deadline for removing Trump’s name from the building and related materials.

Earlier Thursday, the board also voted to seek a stay of Cooper’s order, according to two individuals familiar with the meeting who spoke to The Washington Post.

To obtain a stay, attorneys for the center must demonstrate a likelihood of success on appeal and argue that removing Trump’s name would cause irreparable harm.

The dispute stems from Cooper’s earlier ruling against the Trump administration and the Kennedy Center board.

The judge ordered Trump’s name removed from the exterior of the building, the center’s website, merchandise and other materials associated with the institution. Cooper also blocked a planned two-year closure for renovations, finding the move unlawful.

The court had given the Kennedy Center until June 12 to comply with the order.

Cooper sided with Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-OH, an ex officio member of the board who challenged the decision to rename the center.

The judge concluded that Congress established the institution as a living memorial to President John F. Kennedy following his assassination and that the board lacked the authority to alter that designation.

Before filing its appeal, Kennedy Center officials indicated they would comply with the court’s order while weighing further legal action.

“We are complying with the court’s order while evaluating all legal options to preserve this revitalization and recognize President Trump’s leadership,” Roma Daravi, the center’s vice president of public relations, previously said.

The center has already removed Trump’s name from several official platforms, including its website, YouTube channel and invitations to its annual honors ceremony.

However, references to Trump remained visible Thursday on the Kennedy Center’s Instagram, Facebook and X social media accounts.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:00

Fool Me Once? Shame On You. Fool Me 39 Times...?

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

After several days of strikes against Iran, and several morning announcements that strikes were set to continue, Trump announced via Truth Social that the “scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran” have been cancelled as a peace deal has been agreed upon. Indeed, “discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved…the Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized — time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”

According to our recently published energy strategy report, 103 Days, 38 Peace Deals, yesterday’s announcement would constitute the 39th peace deal declared since the onset of the war. Speaking of, the report highlights the “massive drop in Chinese imports,” leading to a downward adjustment of Rabobank’s brent crude oil forecasts, now projecting $103/bbl in Q3 of this year.

WATCH: CNN montage of Trump saying he's close to a deal with Iran. He's made the claim 39 times since the war began.pic.twitter.com/o2j782A2jF

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 12, 2026

But back to the peace deal, it should be noted that the provided list of “all parties involved” does not include one party who some would argue is pretty heavily involved…Iran. Perhaps Iran was counted in the “and others” part of the list, but this wouldn’t be the first time the US proposed a deal it thinks Iran can’t refuse, just for Iran to either outright refuse it, or announce that it never received such a peace deal in the first place. It should also be noted that some of the “involved parties” who were listed, like Israel and Pakistan, have confirmed that they had not been informed of any agreement at the time the peace deal was initially announced.

That doesn’t mean that this peace deal is for certain another empty announcement. Indeed, economists often assume things turn out similar to precedent, of course, until they don’t. But the market’s reaction to the deal coupled with the major IPO events today may add further credence to our view that defense-related rhetoric these days has just as much to do with financial markets as they do with geopolitics.

The S&P 500 had sunk around 4.4% from its recent high of $7,610 to $7,277. The peace deal announcement, however, sparked a sharp sell-off in brent crude oil of $3, breaking to its lowest level since April. The move in oil dragged interest rates down—with the 10 year down more than 8bp to trade below 4.45% again—and pulled stocks back up, fueling an almost 1.7% upwards jump in the S&P and a 3.5% jump in the NASDAQ. Coincidentally, SpaceX’s IPO, which has been said to “draw more than $100 billion in retail orders,” is also scheduled for today.

Early yesterday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X that “any damage [Iran] inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts. Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.” This draws attention to one of the key contentions between the US and Iran when it comes to striking a deal, in that Iran wants USD 12 billion of Iranian funds unfrozen if an interim deal is achieved, which the US is reluctant to accept, remembering when the Obama Administration unfroze around USD 100 billion as part of the JCPOA in 2015, the consequences of which the US may or may not be dealing with today.

But Axios reports that this peace deal is different from the others, with “sources” saying that “gaps have been narrowed” on key issues like unfreezing Iranian assets, the process for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and how negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program would be conducted.

Rates started the day yesterday bubbling higher after a hot PPI print, registering 1.1% m/m in the headline and 0.8% m/m when excluding food, energy, and trade. While the 1.1% headline print is hot enough to give anyone the sweats, the core print is particularly concerning, as it strips out the first order inflationary effects and reveals that second order inflation pressures may have already started to crawl out of the woodwork on the production side. There is only so much time before these costs are likely to be passed onto the consumer. After the PPI data release, the OIS curve had been pricing in around one Fed hike by year end. However, that number dropped to only 70% of a hike after the peace deal announcement.

In the Eurozone, meanwhile, the ECB is already full steam ahead. Yesterday, the ECB released its decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.25%, making it the first major central bank to hike rates. The decision statement cites that “the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.” Our ECB whisperer, Bas van Geffen, is forecasting the next hike at the September meeting. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 09:45

Fool Me Once? Shame On You. Fool Me 39 Times...?

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

After several days of strikes against Iran, and several morning announcements that strikes were set to continue, Trump announced via Truth Social that the “scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran” have been cancelled as a peace deal has been agreed upon. Indeed, “discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved…the Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized — time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”

According to our recently published energy strategy report, 103 Days, 38 Peace Deals, yesterday’s announcement would constitute the 39th peace deal declared since the onset of the war. Speaking of, the report highlights the “massive drop in Chinese imports,” leading to a downward adjustment of Rabobank’s brent crude oil forecasts, now projecting $103/bbl in Q3 of this year.

WATCH: CNN montage of Trump saying he's close to a deal with Iran. He's made the claim 39 times since the war began.pic.twitter.com/o2j782A2jF

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 12, 2026

But back to the peace deal, it should be noted that the provided list of “all parties involved” does not include one party who some would argue is pretty heavily involved…Iran. Perhaps Iran was counted in the “and others” part of the list, but this wouldn’t be the first time the US proposed a deal it thinks Iran can’t refuse, just for Iran to either outright refuse it, or announce that it never received such a peace deal in the first place. It should also be noted that some of the “involved parties” who were listed, like Israel and Pakistan, have confirmed that they had not been informed of any agreement at the time the peace deal was initially announced.

That doesn’t mean that this peace deal is for certain another empty announcement. Indeed, economists often assume things turn out similar to precedent, of course, until they don’t. But the market’s reaction to the deal coupled with the major IPO events today may add further credence to our view that defense-related rhetoric these days has just as much to do with financial markets as they do with geopolitics.

The S&P 500 had sunk around 4.4% from its recent high of $7,610 to $7,277. The peace deal announcement, however, sparked a sharp sell-off in brent crude oil of $3, breaking to its lowest level since April. The move in oil dragged interest rates down—with the 10 year down more than 8bp to trade below 4.45% again—and pulled stocks back up, fueling an almost 1.7% upwards jump in the S&P and a 3.5% jump in the NASDAQ. Coincidentally, SpaceX’s IPO, which has been said to “draw more than $100 billion in retail orders,” is also scheduled for today.

Early yesterday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X that “any damage [Iran] inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts. Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.” This draws attention to one of the key contentions between the US and Iran when it comes to striking a deal, in that Iran wants USD 12 billion of Iranian funds unfrozen if an interim deal is achieved, which the US is reluctant to accept, remembering when the Obama Administration unfroze around USD 100 billion as part of the JCPOA in 2015, the consequences of which the US may or may not be dealing with today.

But Axios reports that this peace deal is different from the others, with “sources” saying that “gaps have been narrowed” on key issues like unfreezing Iranian assets, the process for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and how negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program would be conducted.

Rates started the day yesterday bubbling higher after a hot PPI print, registering 1.1% m/m in the headline and 0.8% m/m when excluding food, energy, and trade. While the 1.1% headline print is hot enough to give anyone the sweats, the core print is particularly concerning, as it strips out the first order inflationary effects and reveals that second order inflation pressures may have already started to crawl out of the woodwork on the production side. There is only so much time before these costs are likely to be passed onto the consumer. After the PPI data release, the OIS curve had been pricing in around one Fed hike by year end. However, that number dropped to only 70% of a hike after the peace deal announcement.

In the Eurozone, meanwhile, the ECB is already full steam ahead. Yesterday, the ECB released its decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.25%, making it the first major central bank to hike rates. The decision statement cites that “the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.” Our ECB whisperer, Bas van Geffen, is forecasting the next hike at the September meeting. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 09:45

Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Bars Texas AG Paxton's Lawsuit Against ActBlue

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has barred Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from pursuing his state court lawsuit against ActBlue, a major Democratic online fundraising platform.

President Clinton-appointed U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns ruled Thursday that the case represented no more than a retaliation campaign for ActBlue’s political activities supporting Paxton’s opponent in the 2026 U.S. Senate race.

Stearns issued a preliminary injunction preventing Paxton from pursuing the Texas case. The judge found the lawsuit attempted to undermine protected political speech and therefore violated the First Amendment.

“The truth is plain and captured in Paxton’s own declarations: The lawsuit was filed in retaliation for (and in an attempt to suppress) ActBlue’s efforts to fund Talarico’s campaign,” Stearns wrote in the ruling.

Neither Paxton’s office nor ActBlue immediately returned a request for comment.

Paxton filed the initial lawsuit in April in Texas state court as he campaigned as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat.

The suit singled out ActBlue, a Massachusetts-based fundraising platform that claims to have raised billions for Democratic candidates and causes since its founding in 2004. It sought civil penalties and an order blocking ActBlue from accepting certain gift card donations.

The Texas attorney general alleged that ActBlue employed deceptive practices after the fundraising platform resumed gift card and foreign prepaid debit card donations after informing Congress that it had ceased conducting the transactions. Paxton alleged the practices could empower foreign nationals to hide their identities while making political contributions, potentially in violation of state law.

The action mirrors wider Republican-led scrutiny of online fundraising platforms, which has included directives from the Trump administration to the Justice Department.

ActBlue responded with its own federal lawsuit filed in Boston in May. The platform contended that Paxton’s investigation and state court lawsuit amounted to unconstitutional retaliation designed to punish it for supporting Democratic candidates, namely Democrat James Talarico, Paxton’s opponent in the Texas Senate contest. ActBlue requested the court declare the actions violations of the First and Fourteenth Amendments and to block them.

Stearns ruled on behalf of ActBlue on the preliminary request, criticizing what he said was Paxton’s history of filing retaliatory lawsuits. The injunction bars Paxton from advancing the state case.

ActBlue’s operations have received increased scrutiny lately. The platform’s CEO, Regina Wallace-Jones, appeared before a House Administration Committee hearing as panel Republicans questioned the organization’s processes for screening foreign contributions and more. Wallace-Jones invoked her Fifth Amendment right during the session. She wrote in an opinion article published in The Washington Post on the same day that she would do so “against self-incrimination.”

ActBlue has long been the primary vehicle for small-dollar donations to Democratic candidates and progressive organizations.

Thursday’s ruling allows ActBlue to continue operations while the related claims work their way through the legal system.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 09:10

Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Bars Texas AG Paxton's Lawsuit Against ActBlue

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has barred Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from pursuing his state court lawsuit against ActBlue, a major Democratic online fundraising platform.

President Clinton-appointed U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns ruled Thursday that the case represented no more than a retaliation campaign for ActBlue’s political activities supporting Paxton’s opponent in the 2026 U.S. Senate race.

Stearns issued a preliminary injunction preventing Paxton from pursuing the Texas case. The judge found the lawsuit attempted to undermine protected political speech and therefore violated the First Amendment.

“The truth is plain and captured in Paxton’s own declarations: The lawsuit was filed in retaliation for (and in an attempt to suppress) ActBlue’s efforts to fund Talarico’s campaign,” Stearns wrote in the ruling.

Neither Paxton’s office nor ActBlue immediately returned a request for comment.

Paxton filed the initial lawsuit in April in Texas state court as he campaigned as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat.

The suit singled out ActBlue, a Massachusetts-based fundraising platform that claims to have raised billions for Democratic candidates and causes since its founding in 2004. It sought civil penalties and an order blocking ActBlue from accepting certain gift card donations.

The Texas attorney general alleged that ActBlue employed deceptive practices after the fundraising platform resumed gift card and foreign prepaid debit card donations after informing Congress that it had ceased conducting the transactions. Paxton alleged the practices could empower foreign nationals to hide their identities while making political contributions, potentially in violation of state law.

The action mirrors wider Republican-led scrutiny of online fundraising platforms, which has included directives from the Trump administration to the Justice Department.

ActBlue responded with its own federal lawsuit filed in Boston in May. The platform contended that Paxton’s investigation and state court lawsuit amounted to unconstitutional retaliation designed to punish it for supporting Democratic candidates, namely Democrat James Talarico, Paxton’s opponent in the Texas Senate contest. ActBlue requested the court declare the actions violations of the First and Fourteenth Amendments and to block them.

Stearns ruled on behalf of ActBlue on the preliminary request, criticizing what he said was Paxton’s history of filing retaliatory lawsuits. The injunction bars Paxton from advancing the state case.

ActBlue’s operations have received increased scrutiny lately. The platform’s CEO, Regina Wallace-Jones, appeared before a House Administration Committee hearing as panel Republicans questioned the organization’s processes for screening foreign contributions and more. Wallace-Jones invoked her Fifth Amendment right during the session. She wrote in an opinion article published in The Washington Post on the same day that she would do so “against self-incrimination.”

ActBlue has long been the primary vehicle for small-dollar donations to Democratic candidates and progressive organizations.

Thursday’s ruling allows ActBlue to continue operations while the related claims work their way through the legal system.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 09:10

DOJ Probes Big Banks For Alleged "Debanking" Of Clients

The US Dept of Justice is intensifying scrutiny of some of the country’s largest financial institutions over allegations that customers were denied banking services, or "debanked" for political or ideological reasons, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, led by Jeanine Pirro, has reportedly issued subpoenas to several major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. Investigators are seeking information on account closures, customer offboarding decisions, and internal records explaining why certain individuals or businesses were denied access to banking services.

According to the WSJ, the inquiry builds on a broader effort launched by the Trump administration to examine claims that banks used their market power to exclude politically disfavored customers or entire industries from the financial system. Supporters of the investigation argue that concerns about debanking have circulated for years, particularly among conservatives and businesses operating in controversial but legal sectors, yet have received limited attention from regulators and law enforcement.

According to reports, prosecutors are requesting lists of customers who may have been removed from banking relationships, as well as documentation supporting those decisions. The investigation appears to be running alongside a review by federal banking regulators, including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which previously indicated it had found preliminary evidence suggesting certain industries may have faced heightened barriers to banking access.

Banks have consistently rejected accusations that political affiliation plays any role in their decisions. Industry representatives maintain that account closures are driven by compliance obligations, anti-money-laundering requirements, risk management concerns, and other regulatory expectations imposed on financial institutions.

A central issue for investigators will be whether any laws were violated when banks chose to terminate customer relationships or avoid particular sectors altogether. Prosecutors are reportedly evaluating potential claims under the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act (FIRREA), a statute that has historically been used in major financial misconduct cases.

The investigation represents one of the most significant federal efforts to date to examine allegations of politically motivated debanking. Whether it ultimately uncovers unlawful conduct remains to be seen, but for many observers, the fact that federal authorities are now formally examining these claims is a step that should have happened years ago.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 08:50

DOJ Probes Big Banks For Alleged "Debanking" Of Clients

The US Dept of Justice is intensifying scrutiny of some of the country’s largest financial institutions over allegations that customers were denied banking services, or "debanked" for political or ideological reasons, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, led by Jeanine Pirro, has reportedly issued subpoenas to several major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. Investigators are seeking information on account closures, customer offboarding decisions, and internal records explaining why certain individuals or businesses were denied access to banking services.

According to the WSJ, the inquiry builds on a broader effort launched by the Trump administration to examine claims that banks used their market power to exclude politically disfavored customers or entire industries from the financial system. Supporters of the investigation argue that concerns about debanking have circulated for years, particularly among conservatives and businesses operating in controversial but legal sectors, yet have received limited attention from regulators and law enforcement.

According to reports, prosecutors are requesting lists of customers who may have been removed from banking relationships, as well as documentation supporting those decisions. The investigation appears to be running alongside a review by federal banking regulators, including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which previously indicated it had found preliminary evidence suggesting certain industries may have faced heightened barriers to banking access.

Banks have consistently rejected accusations that political affiliation plays any role in their decisions. Industry representatives maintain that account closures are driven by compliance obligations, anti-money-laundering requirements, risk management concerns, and other regulatory expectations imposed on financial institutions.

A central issue for investigators will be whether any laws were violated when banks chose to terminate customer relationships or avoid particular sectors altogether. Prosecutors are reportedly evaluating potential claims under the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act (FIRREA), a statute that has historically been used in major financial misconduct cases.

The investigation represents one of the most significant federal efforts to date to examine allegations of politically motivated debanking. Whether it ultimately uncovers unlawful conduct remains to be seen, but for many observers, the fact that federal authorities are now formally examining these claims is a step that should have happened years ago.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 08:50

Futures Rally Amid Fresh Iran Peace Hopes, All Eyes On SpaceX

US stock futures and global markets are higher, extending their rally while oil hit the lowest level in months following fresh reports that the US and Iran are nearing a provisional agreement to end their war, even if top leadership has yet to sign off. Meanwhile, all eyes are on SpaceX - the world's biggest IPO- where shadow markets are pricing a spike of at least 35% for SpaceX on its debut, while online market see odds of a 30% close at roughly breakeven. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% after the benchmark climbed 1.8% in the previous session. Pre-market, all Mag 7 are higher led by GOOGL and META. Treasuries held steady after Thursday's gain: 10Y yields are at 4.46%. The DXY dollar index fell 21bp to 99.639. Commodities are all lower: WTI fell $3.90 to $83.81 while Brent slid almost 4% to head for its first close below $88 a barrel since the first week of the war. Base/precious metals are unchanged; ags are all lower. Today's US economic data calendar includes June University of Michigan sentiment at 10am.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Alphabet +1.3%, Meta +1%, Amazon +1%, Nvidia +0.6%, Microsoft +0.6%, Tesla +0.7%, Apple +0.4%)

• Rocket, satellite and space-linked companies gain after Elon Musk’s SpaceX raised $75 billion in its initial public offering. Movers include EchoStar +5% and Rocket Lab (RKLB) +4%.
• Adobe (ADBE) falls 6% after the company said its chief financial officer, Dan Durn, would depart, leaving the company without a top tier of veteran leadership after Chief Executive Officer Shantanu Narayen announced he would step aside.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gains 2% as Citi upgraded the chipmaker to buy, seeing the company as a key beneficiary of AI.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) slips 1% after appointing Adobe’s Dan Durn as chief financial officer, succeeding Willem Meintjes.
• Travelers Cos. (TRV) slips 2% after Barclays cut its the recommendation on the property and casualty insurance company to underweight, saying that profit upside in the sector is getting more difficult to find.

In other corporate news, Adobe said its CFO would depart, leaving the company without a top tier of veteran leadership after the CEO announced in March that he would step aside. Flutter Entertainment, the owner of FanDuel, the largest player in US sports betting, plans to delist from trading in London

Sentiment was lifted overnight amid fresh expectations that the conflict with Iran is drawing to a close. In the latest developments on a draft deal, a Group of Seven official said an agreement could be signed as soon as Sunday. Iran’s foreign ministry told state-run media that a framework text was nearly finalized (full details here). The semi-official Mehr agency reported that the draft contained 14 provisions, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and 60 days of negotiations on nuclear issues. Some have panned the MOU as one which concedes to Iran, giving the country monetary benefits upfront, while leaving the key negotiations for the back-end.

That said, traders are keen for an end to the more than 100-day war that has roiled global markets and caused the biggest oil-supply shock in history. While President Donald Trump signaled Thursday that a deal should get done shortly, traders have remained wary as previous bursts of optimism have ended in disappointment.

“Markets would believe the deal is reached when we have the actual agreement signed and the Strait of Hormuz can be opened,” said Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “For now, markets are in relief mode that further escalation can be avoided.”

As for SpaceX, differences of opinion on the $75 billion IPO - the world's biggest - are easy to find on vision, valuation, opportunity and risks, but perhaps the most encouraging sign for traders may be the ability for the market to absorb record equity issuance. There’s been a record flood of equity issuance over the past two weeks, between SpaceX’s debut and Alphabet’s deal, with EPFR analysts saying it leaves “shrinking aggregate cash available to support broader equity valuations.” Meanwhile US equity funds had an 11th week of inflows, the longest streak since Dec., as tech funds had their biggest inflow ever, according to Bank of America.

On SpaceX valuation, “expensive” has never been a catalyst with Elon Musk, notes Amanda Lyons at Energy Group Capital, and “betting against his premium has been a losing trade for a decade.” Trading in the stock is likely to be a read for risk appetite while “the danger is that a genuine business and a quasi-religious premium are being sold in the same ticker, and most buyers aren’t separating the two,” Lyons adds. 

“There appears to be continued investor appetite for technology-related growth stories, particularly those with exposure to AI,” said Tomás García-Purriños at Santander Asset Management. “The pipeline of expected IPOs in 2026 suggests that investor interest in technology, digital infrastructure and AI-related themes remains healthy, extending well beyond a handful of high-profile names.”

Bloomberg-compiled data covering 66 of the biggest US tech IPOs and direct listings since 2012 shows that an initial pop is near-universal. Among the pure IPOs, 86% closed above their offer price on day one, with a median 36% gain. After that, dispersion kicks in.

Elsewhere, overnight Bloomberg reported that global banks including Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman are said to be curbing hedge funds’ leveraged bets on Asia’s top chipmakers including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics after a blistering rally this year raised concerns of a potential pullback.

Also overnight, Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts for crude oil prices next year by $5 a barrel on higher supply and lower demand. The US declared a power emergency in the southeastern US as forecasters warned of dangerous heat that’s likely to stress power grids along the country’s east coast. 

Traders in Europe and Asia raced to catch up with Wall Street’s chipmaker-led gains from Thursday. The Stoxx 600 rose 1.5% on optimism about a deal between the US and Iran builds, prompted by President Trump scrapping strikes and extended by a report that a draft deal is under discussion, though one that still needs approval from authorities. Here are the biggest movers Friday: 

• Shares in European energy and fossil-fuel firms fall while airlines gain after President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran could be signed as soon as the weekend, comments that pushed down oil prices
• Homebuilders are among the best-performing stocks in the UK on Friday as money markets pare bets on BOE rate hikes and swap rates used to price mortgages decline. The move is driven by sliding oil prices on Middle East optimism
• FlatexDEGIRO shares jump as much as 7.5% after the online brokerage was awarded a new overweight rating at Barclays following the stock’s de-rating this year, while Avanza rises as much as 5.3% after being upgraded
• Getinge gains as much as 4.9%, the most since Oct. 21, after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing an improving outlook for the Swedish health-care equipment firm
• Halma shares rise as much as 4.3%, rebounding from a two-month low following the record 15% drop in the share price on Thursday after the UK industrial group’s guidance for its Photonics business fell short of expectations
• Nokia gains as much as 6.7% after JPMorgan raised its PT on the company, saying its operating profit in 2028 can beat the company’s own guidance — issued during the capital markets day in November — by more than 50%
• Colruyt shares rise as much as 8.6% as Oddo BHF analyst Robert Jan Vos upgrades the retailer to outperform from neutral and lifts his price target ahead of full-year results on June 16 in anticipation of continued margin revival
• Exail shares fall as much as 21% as the company disagrees with financial partner ICG over the size of a payment for bonds and preferred shares as ICG exits its investment in the French defense firm
• Acciona Energía shares are 9.7% higher Friday in Madrid trading following a Cinco Días report that Brookfield, KKR are among investors that Acciona has reached out to gauge interest on its renewables unit
• Glanbia drops as much as 4.3% to €21.62 after biggest shareholder Tirlán Co-Operative Society sold down its stake in the Irish manufacturer of workout supplements and energy bars
• LPP slumps as much as 7.8%, the most in a month, after the Polish fashion retailer slowed its expansion in response to rising cannibalization risk within its key Sinsay brand

Asian stocks rallied as technology shares rebounded, helped by President Donald Trump’s claim that a deal with Iran was close.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 3.5%, the most in more than two months, before paring some gains. Chipmakers Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC were among the biggest contributors. South Korea’s Kospi led gains among regional benchmarks, closing 4.6% higher after gaining as much as 8.6% earlier. Most other markets were also in the green. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Chow Tai Fook’s shares surge as much as 13%, the most since June 2019, after its full-year earnings and FY27 guidance both beat estimates. The gold retailer saw stronger growth in April–May, driven by a recovery in demand for weight-based gold jewelry amid a retreat in gold prices, according to analysts.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index only seeing modest moves after a four-day run of losses and now little changed, having wiped out its gains on the Iran headlines. 

In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve, broadly holding late gains seen on Thursday, following latest developments on a draft US-Iran peace deal which includes a G7 official saying an agreement could be signed as soon as Sunday. US yields richer by around 1bp across belly of the curve with 10-year trading at 4.455%, close to Thursday’s closing levels, as oil extended declines, continuing to underpin Treasuries and support stocks. Bunds and gilts outperform, catching up with Thursday’s late Treasuries gains after the European close. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Citibank’s $6.25b transaction led a three-deal $10.25b slate on Thursday. Issuers paid less than 1bp on deals that were 4.8 times covered. Weekly volume at $27b is just shy of the $30b dealers’ projections

In commodities, WTI futures lower by 3.4% on the day while Brent heads for its first close below $88 a barrel since the first week of the war. Gold was little changed and Bitcoin posted small gains.

Today's US economic data calendar includes June University of Michigan sentiment at 10am.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The US and Iran moved closer to an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially around next week’s G-7 meeting, according to senior officials. The US is to withdraw forces from the area surrounding Iran under a potential deal, Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr reported. BBG
• The United States plans to significantly reduce the aircraft and warships that it makes available for NATO operations in Europe, according to two senior European officials, accelerating America’s effort to scale down the protection it has offered to European allies for eight decades. NYT
• Global banks are curbing hedge funds’ leveraged bets on Asia’s top chipmakers including SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. after a blistering rally this year raised concerns of a potential pullback. BBG
• Nvidia has told Chinese clients that its new "Vera" central processors for AI data centers could be available as soon as August and that they can begin placing orders, three sources familiar with the matter said. BBG
• China told big state-owned banks to reduce their lending in the interbank market, according to people familiar with the matter, in an effort to prevent borrowing costs from drifting too far below the policy interest rate. BBG
• Chinese investors are rushing to Hong Kong to open bank accounts and buy investment products, as Beijing cracks down on cross-border capital flows in a shift that shareholders fear may dent returns. FT
• The ECB is prepared to raise rates again next month if the shock from the war requires it, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said. BBG
• The US insurance industry’s standard setter has begun to examine credit risks linked to data center projects, which are increasingly showing up in insurers’ investment portfolios. FT
• Big companies and startups, chafing at rapidly escalating artificial intelligence costs, are increasingly turning to tools that tap in to cheaper AI models, including some from China. That’s raising pressure on industry leaders OpenAI and Anthropic to lower their prices, a prospect that could hurt their ability to grow into profitable enterprises. WSJ
• US Senate Banking Committee is weighing a markup of export control legislation. It could tee up the bills for inclusion in the next annual defense policy package, no final decision has been made yet: Punchbowl 
• US President Trump said regarding fertilizer prices, that they might look into federal aid, and are looking at doing some form of help.
• BofA weekly flow data shows USD 20.8bln into bonds (59th straight week of inflows), USD 2.5bln out of cash, USD 31.5bln into stocks, USD 0.7bln out of crypto (record inflows over 5 weeks), USD 2.3bln out of gold (4th straight week of outflows).

Iran News

• Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran. 
• The US-Iran MoU is likely to be signed next week, according to CBS citing sources, with Bloomberg later reporting that it could happen at the G7 meeting in Geneva next week. First steps include ensuring "freedom of trade" by demining and opening the Strait of Hormuz. The signing would kick off 60 days of talks to negotiate details. In principle, Iran would commit to a lockout of 15-20 years during which it would not enrich uranium and would dismantle its nuclear sites. In exchange for taking these steps, Iran would receive financial relief staggered over time and sequenced to correspond with compliance.
• US President Trump said he understands that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal and that lifting the blockade is part of the Iran deal, while he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and that they want to make a deal a lot more than he does. Trump added it's a very strong MOU, they found Iran to be rational, and they will make a deal. Furthermore, he said the Strait will open immediately upon MOU signing, maybe Saturday or Monday, but doesn't want to set a deadline for the deal, and stated a Kharg Island deal would be off the table now.
• US President Trump said at a virtual campaign rally that they settled up with Iran and it is pretty much completed, while they got everything they wanted and claimed they ended the war with Iran.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu held a call with US President Trump on Thursday night regarding the possibility of a pending peace deal between the US and Iran, according to CBS News.
• Airplanes associated with US VP Vance's advance team are moving ahead of potential Iran MoU signing, according to New York Post reporter.
• Iran state media said Tehran would not cede control of Hormuz under draft US deal, AFP reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalised, while it added that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is less secure due to US actions and that what is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation. Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but stated that the text of the agreement is almost ready.
• Sources cited by Al Hadath said Iran has given final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
• Iranian state media reported that explosions heard in Sirik was related to a confrontation with a vessel that violated regulations whilst attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Israeli airstrike reported in Jebchit, southern Lebanon, according to Al Araby.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

• APAC stocks rallied following on from the gains on Wall St, after President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and touted a US-Iran deal, which could be signed as soon as the weekend and would open the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump claimed the US ended the war with Iran and he understood that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal. However, Iran pushed back on this as a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but acknowledged that the text of the deal was almost ready.
• ASX 200 climbed higher as outperformance in mining, materials and resources led the advances, while energy was pressured due to the drop in oil prices, and defensives also lagged amid the risk-on environment.
• Nikkei 225 surged at the open and briefly tested the 67,000 level, with the index helped by lower oil prices and with tech and mining stocks sitting comfortably among the list of biggest gainers.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the euphoria with mining stocks among the notable gainers, while Chow Tai Fook was front-running the advances after it reported record full-year profit.

Top Asian News

• China tells big banks to curb interbank loans to ease cash glut.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are aiming to broaden retail JGB offerings and that retail Japanese government bonds remain unappreciated by households, while she stated that no impact is expected on the central bank policy meeting after BoJ Governor Ueda was hospitalised.
• India is willing to let fiscal gap widen to as much as 4.8% of GDP from a previous 4.3%, according to Bloomberg

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.8%) start the last trading day of the week on a firmer footing and have completely reversed the losses seen at the start of the week. This comes on hopes of a US-Iran deal, with US President Trump stating that it could be signed as early as this weekend in Europe. Further upside was spurred after Mehr News reported that the MoU with the US includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. European sectors are entirely in the green bar Energy (-3.1%). Travel & Leisure (+5.2%) is the clear outperformer, followed by Banks (+4.2%) and Consumer Products & Services (+3.7%). Cyclicals have been affected the most since the start of the Iran war, so hopes of an end would benefit these sectors the most.

Top European News

• Bundesbank sees German GDP growth at 0.5% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027; German inflation seen at 2.9% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027.

FX

• Snapshot: DXY is incrementally firmer, whilst G10s mixed vs the USD this morning. The tentative action comes after US President Trump claimed that he had a deal with Iran, and that the signing of the MoU would probably happen in Europe. However, the Iranians pushed back on this claim. This morning, a Mehr report revealing the details of the 14-point plan garnered some attention, which helped boost global sentiment - though action was fairly muted in the FX space.
• DXY is slightly firmer today despite significantly lower oil prices after a number of geopolitical updates in the last 24 hours. (See commodities for more details). In recent trade, USD was hit as details of the 14-point US-Iran MoU accelerated the risk-on bias. On this reporting, DXY moved towards Thursday's lows of 99.58, currently 99.72 at the time of writing. Focus for the remainder of the day shifts to the UoM Sentiment survey, but market participants will likely be more attentive of the geopolitical environment and potentially some early positioning heading into a weekend which could see a deal between US-Iran be signed.
• EUR and GBP trade has chopped on either side of the unchanged mark this morning. The single currency has had a number of ECB speak to contend with, but by in-large has been largely in-fitting with President Lagarde’s comments on Thursday. A notable Bloomberg sources piece suggested that some policymakers could see a hike as soon as July. Elsewhere, the GBP had a weak growth report to digest – overall it does little to shift the mood heading into the next week’s meeting, but will exacerbate the growth woes had the Bank.
• NOK is the worst G10 performer on account of lower oil prices as participants assess implications for Terms of Trade and the Norges Bank. Popular carry trade NOK/SEK has seen downside in excess of a percent today due to the above. NOK/SEK slipped below par, to mark a session low of 0.9882.

Central Banks

• ECB's Nagel said all policy options remain on the table for July while adding that the ECB is prepared to respond if required.
• ECB's Makhlouf said we need to get ahead of inflation and are seeing more broad-based inflation impact. It would be a mistake for us to do nothing.
• ECB's Kocher said the war's impact on price trends are increasingly clear and he does not expect inflation to match 2022 or 2023 levels. Will act decisively to ensure 2% mid-term target.
• ECB's Dolenc said the rate hike is just enough for now to follow the baseline, and they had a robust set of data to make a decision. Dolenc also stated that it is pretty obvious inflation will be higher and growth lower, while services inflation is stubborn and hard to fight.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the green and currently hold towards highs. Strength, which has been facilitated by lower energy prices after US President Trump claimed that he had a deal with Iran, and that the signing of the MoU would probably happen in Europe. However, the Iranians pushed back on this claim. The bullish bias then extended after Iran-affiliated, Mehr News, reported the details of the US-Iran 14-point MoU. This spurred another bout of pressure in the energy complex, which in-turn weighed on global yields.
• USTs (+4+ ticks) gain, and hold at the upper end of a 109-19 to 109-29 range. Action which has been facilitated by the positive geopolitical mood music, but still remains the underperformer vs peers. That can potentially be explained by the ongoing hawkish repricing at the Fed, heading to the Bank’s policy announcement next week. Elsewhere, yields are lower across the curve with underperformance in the short-end/belly; the 10yr currently holds at 4.43%, marking the WTD low. Should the geopolitical environment materially improve in the coming days, and the Strait entirely opens up, the 10yr could dip its head back towards support levels at 4.33% and then 4.25%. Do note that the 10yr resided below the 4.00% mark before the Iran conflict started.
• Bunds (+43 ticks) and Gilts (+87 ticks) both follow the bullish bias, with the latter outperforming given its relatively high dependence on external energy and poor domestic growth data. For EGBs, there have been a number of ECB speakers this morning following the Bank’s decision to hike rates on Thursday. Most have echoed the comments made by President Lagarde at her presser; focus has been on a Bloomberg report, which suggested that some ECB members see another hike as soon as July.
• For UK paper, the GDP release this morning indicated that the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April, amidst the Iranian war. This will only exacerbate growth woes for some policymakers at the BoE, where policymakers are set to meet next week, expected to keep rates on hold.

Commodities

• On Thursday, US President Trump said a deal could be signed with Iran as soon as this weekend in Europe, following an earlier post on Truth Social that the US was going to strike Iran hard for the third straight day and then later pulling back the threat. Trump said VP Vance would attend if the deal materialises and added that the Iranian Supreme Leader had agreed to a deal. The deal was described as a very strong MoU which would restart shipping in the Strait and include commitments from Tehran to not pursue a nuclear weapon.
• Markets were awaiting any kind of confirmation from Iranian media that the MoU has been received. Mehr News reported the 14-point MoU includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. (Full 14 points on the headline feed) Awaiting official commentary from the Iranian government on the MoU.
• Crude futures were already on the softer side before the Mehr news report, but it has given an additional catalyst for further downside. WTI Jul'26 slides below a key support range of USD 84.46-85.95/bbl, currently trading at the bottom of USD 83.20-86.98/bbl range. For Brent Aug'26, the benchmark trades slips below the USD 86/bbl handle (USD 85.80-89.72/bbl).
• Precious metals trade in narrow ranges after rebounding in excess of 3% in Thursday's session. Spot gold oscillates in a USD 4170-4247/oz range. Given the positive news of a potential US-Iran deal, worries of higher inflation/rates due to energy prices may temper and result in some unwinding of the hawkish rate bets by the Fed.
• 3M LME Copper bids higher, currently trading in a USD 13.6k-13.72k/t range, amid the positive tone. The red metal gapped higher alongside gains in Asia-Pac equities and held amid constructive reporting.
• Venezuela has signed five agreements with Shell (SHEL LN) to advance oil and gas projects, which includes the Co.'s participation in the 5tln cubic-feet Loran offshore gas field.
• JPMorgan still expects aluminium to reach USD 4k/t, now forecasting an average price of USD 3750/t in H2'26.

US Event calendar

• 10:00 am: Jun P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 46, prior 44.8

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy birthday to me. I’m taking most of today off to catch up with an old close friend I now see far less than I should, largely due to work commitments and my ongoing role as an on-demand Uber driver for my children. The plan involves a long local hike and a long non boozy lunch. Yes, my wife and I are actually going to spend some time together. Hopefully we won't run out of things to talk about within the first few hundred yards.

There’s no shortage of topics to discuss in the financial world right now, as sentiment and newsflow around tech and the Iran war continue to swing 180 degrees at short notice. Indeed, the past 24 hours has seen a sharp reversal in the trajectory of the US–Iran conflict, as mounting hopes of a deal have seen Brent crude fall -1.62% overnight, leaving it on track for a 3-month low of $88.80/bbl. So that’s led to a huge rally across bonds and equities, as lower oil prices have eased fears about a prolonged stagflationary shock.

The picture had looked very different this time yesterday, as we woke up to a second day of US strikes on Iran. Moreover, Trump went onto say that that the US would continue to hit Iran for a third day, and take control of Kharg island and other oil infrastructure. But a few hours later, after European markets had closed, that was suddenly reversed. In a post Trump said that discussions with Iran “have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved”, and that he was cancelling “the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. The post also said that “final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved”, and that a time and place for the signing would be “announced shortly”. Later on, Trump followed this up, saying the US had “made a great settlement of the war with Iran”, and that the deal could be signed over the weekend in Europe, and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to shipping once an agreement is signed.

The market reaction to the news was swift, with Brent crude down -2.92% yesterday to $90.38/bbl, and that’s been followed up by an overnight decline of -1.75% to $88.80/bbl. Moreover, the entire oil futures curve moved lower, with the 6-month Brent future down to $83.28/bbl this morning, which would be its lowest closing level since April. And in turn, we’ve seen a huge wave of optimism in Asian equities this morning, with strong gains for the Nikkei (+3.37%), the KOSPI (+8.32%), the Hang Seng (+2.02%), the CSI 300 (+1.53%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.56%).

With oil prices coming down sharply, alongside hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, that’s seen investors price out the chance of rapid rate hikes this year. Indeed, as we go to press, markets are now pricing in just a 77% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, having been fully priced in earlier this week. In fact, it’s not until the March 2027 meeting that a hike is fully priced in. So that dovish repricing helped US Treasuries to surge, with the 2yr yield (-8.1bps) down to 4.06% by the close, whilst the 10yr yield (-9.1bps) fell to 4.46%.

For equities there was also a huge surge, as the prospect of lower inflation and fewer rate hikes led to growing optimism on the near-term outlook. So the S&P 500 (+1.75%) posted its biggest jump in the last two months, whilst futures (+0.10%) are pointing to further gains today. And there was a huge surge for some of the recent laggards, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.91%, the NASDAQ up +2.54%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 up +3.02%. Metals also rallied, with copper up +2.08%, gold up +3.48%, whilst silver (+6.23%) once again traded with a higher beta.

Aside from the Middle East news, the big story yesterday was the first ECB rate hike since 2023, with a 25bp move that lifted their deposit rate to 2.25%. They became the biggest central bank yet to hike after the Middle East energy shock, joining others like Australia and Norway who’d already hiked. Moreover, there were some hawkish undertones, as Lagarde described the hike as "completely warranted and justified”, even in the ECB’s milder scenario, and noted how the inflation shock was becoming broader in nature. Indeed, the ECB lifted their inflation projections, and now expect headline inflation to average 3.0% in 2026 (prev. +2.6%) with core inflation projected to stay above 2% all the way to 2028 (+2.2%).  

Interestingly, we had a little conflict in the usual sources stories that came out after, although that seemed to be more in the headline framing than the details. So Bloomberg’s headline suggested that ECB officials weren’t ruling out another hike as soon as the next meeting in July, but a Reuters story said that the ECB felt a material surge in oil prices was necessary to justify a July hike. Nevertheless, both suggested that both a hold and a hike were possible, and unsurprisingly, Lagarde avoided being drawn on the timing of further hikes. Our own European economists are sticking to their view of one more rate hike to 2.50% in September (see their reaction note here Focus Europe: ECB Reaction: A robust hike) with their economic forecasts being softer than the ECB's. Interestingly they say that another hike to 2.75% is more likely than stopping here at 2.25%.

Given that the hike was fully priced in already, European bonds still put in a decent performance with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.4bps), OATs (-4.8bps) and BTPs (-5.3bps) all retracing the previous day’s losses. Moreover, investors also priced in a more dovish path for the ECB over the months ahead. Equities put in a strong performance too, even before the news of a potential US-Iran deal, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.54%) ending a run of 4 consecutive declines, alongside gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.48%), CAC 40 (+0.48%) and the DAX (+0.06%).

Another big story, prior to the Iran news, was Oracle earnings. That was out after Wednesday’s close, but yesterday their share price fell -8.53% in response, as their quarterly capex spend was much higher than forecast. So that renewed investor concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. For reference, Oracle has become the largest non-bank issuer in the Bloomberg USD Investment Grade index over the last year, and has now signaled another $20bn of debt issuance over the next 4 quarters. Meanwhile, Oracle is now down -26.4% since its intra-day peak on June 1st, after being up +31.0% in the 3 business days before it.

Otherwise, the main US story was that PPI inflation ran hotter than expected in May, with headline PPI up +1.1% on the month (vs. +0.7% expected). However, there was a downward revision of three-tenths to the April number, and the PPI measure excluding food and energy was only at +0.4% (vs. +0.5% expected). Taken together, this week's CPI and PPI have led our US economists to increase their May core PCE forecast to 0.37%, a few basis points higher than before the two releases due to the subcomponent breakdowns. But even though inflation was running hot, the labour market data actually came in on the weaker side, with the weekly initial jobless claims up to 229k in the week ending June 6 (vs. 220k expected), which is their highest in 4 months.

Finally, one interesting story bubbling under the surface is the fear of one of the strongest El Niño’s on record emerging around the Pacific equator. That’s where unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific cause the Pacific jet stream to move south, which creates changes in weather patterns and ecosystems. But unfortunately, El Niño events are also correlated with a higher frequency of natural disasters, such as flooding, so usually lead to concern about things like food harvests and higher prices. Those concerns continued yesterday, as the US Climate Prediction Center published a report, saying that the probability of a strong El Niño is over 65% for the end of this year and a very strong one at nearly 40%.

Looking at the day ahead now, the main data releases will be the US University of Michigan survey for June, the UK’s monthly GDP for April, and Canada’s Q1 capacity utilisation rate. We’ll also hear the ECB’s Kocher and Nagel speak.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 08:23

"Resetting Business": Xbox Layoffs Loom As New CEO Supercharges Overhaul

Microsoft's Xbox gaming division is preparing for a major round of job cuts at the end of the month as new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma moves to "reset" the unit amid a confluence of negative and worsening pressures, including shrinking revenue, soft hardware sales, plateauing Game Pass momentum, and what management now describes as an ongoing "hardware component crisis."

Bloomberg first reported that Microsoft will announce an upcoming round of layoffs after the company's fiscal year ends on June 30. The report was based on sources familiar with the upcoming restructuring plan, though it did not mention whether AI adoption and efficiency gains are driving the cuts.

In a memo to staff, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma and Matt Booty said the gaming division's first 100 days under new leadership showed early signs of progress.

"Now we start the next 100 days. It is important to have both optimism and realism as we work to reset the business," the executives wrote in the memo titled "Next 100 Days: XBOX Reset."

They continued, "Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue."

The memo outlined Xbox's harsh realities it must navigate to achieve a turnaround strategy:

1. Over 1 billion players choose to play XBOX and our games each year, for a total of 72 billion hours across Console, PC, Mobile, and Streaming (excluding much of China and a few other properties). Our franchises are also among the largest and most beloved globally and are now breaking records in TV and film. Going forward, our competition is attention. There are more great games, TV series, franchises, creators, content formats, apps, etc., than ever before

2. We will end this fiscal year at about a 3% accountability margin, down year-over-year. Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform, and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue.

3. We are in a hardware component crisis. When I joined as CEO in February, the price we paid for console storage components was over 2x as high as we paid last fall. These costs have since doubled again. And as we plan for the 2027 holiday season, we expect another significant increase, taking us over 5x the prices we paid only two years earlier. Memory costs have followed a broadly similar trajectory. While the entire industry is facing a components crisis, we believe we have been impacted more greatly than many of our peers due to the choices we made over the last half decade. We are currently unable to make as many consoles as players want to buy, and we need a new business model and partnerships for hardware as we remain committed to Helix.

4. We expanded our studio system when we needed a pipeline of content to meet multiple strategies across subscription, streaming, and devices. In the process, we have found ourselves over extended as we executed on changing strategies in a landscape of more readily available content. We are the fortunate stewards of industry-defining franchises that have enormous potential and player demand, but we have not adequately funded them to compete and win. At the same time, as we saw this past weekend at Showcase, a reliable pipeline of first- and third-party exclusives and new IP are critical to our success. We need to reassess the balance between these and our investment priorities for the next 5 years.

5. Our current platform infrastructure is not built for the battle ahead. Our systems are overly complex, spanning hundreds of dependencies, which hinders our ability to move fast. We've become too reliant on vendors to operate our systems and must become more self-reliant as an engineering culture to build for the future. We must increase the value we ship to players while decreasing the time it takes to do so. Going forward, we'll evolve and rebuild our stack and look at capabilities across all of XBOX and potential M&A to help us win in hardware, PC, mobile, and streaming.

In February, the CEO told the audience at the Bloomberg Tech conference that she planned on "resetting the business," which was "not in a healthy spot."

How it started vs how it’s going | #XBOXShowcase pic.twitter.com/ntww9Pk0GN

— XBOX (@XBOX) June 7, 2026

Xbox and the entire gaming industry have faced mounting headwinds.

TD Securities analyst Doug Creutz pointed out Thursday that mobile gaming remains strong, but console gaming has lost momentum this year:

Industry View: Mobile Had a Really Strong Q1; Tempering Console Expectations

We believe U.S. mobile game spending grew +14% y/y in Q1, comfortably above our expectations, based on reported results at public companies. Note that our model does at least attempt to incorporate the impact of what are rapidly growing DTC businesses across the industry. We expect +10% y/y growth in U.S. mobile game spending for 2026. On the other hand, we previously reduced our 2026 console global software/services spending estimate from +7% y/y to +1% y/y based on (1) the impact of the recent price cut to Xbox Game Pass and (2) the apparent lack of a tentpole title in Nintendo's 2026 slate.

Xbox reaches more than 1 billion players annually across console, PC, mobile, and streaming, but can't generate profits? It may be time for AI and automation to streamline the gaming unit, which likely means layoffs are imminent.

The gaming industry is waiting for the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year to rekindle demand.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 06:55

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• You Have No Idea What a Trillion Dollars Is — and We Have Proof: WSJ runs an interactive on what a trillion actually means as Musk closes in on it. Useful corrective for headline numbness. (Wall Street Journal)

• People love working from home. But does it love them back? A new study says no:  Remote work has soared in popularity since the COVID-19 pandemic. But, a new study suggests the practice has made workers more socially isolated, anxious and depressed compared to people who work in-person in offices and other settings. NPR summarizes new evidence that remote work is producing measurable isolation costs. Worth a read whether or not you’d ever give up the home office. (NPR) see also The Record Divide Between Corporate Profits and Worker Pay: Labor’s share of economic output just hit an all-time low, while the profit share hit a near record. It helps explain why consumers feel so glum. WSJ with the chart: corporate margins at a multi-decade high, labor’s share at a multi-decade low. The kind of spread that does not stay this wide indefinitely. (Wall Street Journal)

• Wall Street Is Adding More Finance Jobs To NYC Than Anywhere Else: And NYC tech is a bigger (but not as high wage as Wall Street) employer. Jonathan Miller on the surprising return-to-NYC pattern in finance hiring. The Miami narrative is real, but the gravitational pull of Manhattan never actually went away. (Housing Notes)

• How a virtual space battle lost gamers £400,000: Every item in the game – from ships and space stations to weaponry – is manufactured by players, who can sell them to one another for in-game currency. Building these assets can take hundreds of hours, but players can also spend real money to acquire them, generating revenue for Icelandic developers Fenris Creations. For example, a Titan-class ship is worth about £741. James Cunningham estimates he has spent about £6,000 on the game since he started playing in 2017. A high-earning friend, he says, claims to have spent closer to £30,000. While spending money on video games is not uncommon, EVE Online stands out because players’ assets can be permanently destroyed; their real-world cash outlay gone in seconds. (BBC)

• How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi: A case study in self-sabotage: The Atlantic on the UK’s two-decade productivity collapse and what’s filling the political vacuum. A useful warning shot for anyone confident in American exceptionalism. (The Atlantic)

• The Congresswoman Who Got Trump’s Name Off the Kennedy Center: Representative Joyce Beatty sued over the president’s control of the arts complex. The effort to keep it open isn’t over. On Joyce Beatty’s quiet legislative win to strip Trump’s name from the Kennedy Center renovation. Small process fights, real cumulative effect. (The Atlantic)

• How a mysterious particle could explain the universe’s missing antimatter: The Big Bang should have produced equal amounts of matter and antimatter, which would have annihilated each other in a spectacular burst of pure energy. But it didn’t. New experiments focused on understanding the enigmatic neutrino may offer insights. (Knowable)

• Football Clubs Try Training a Body Part They’ve Ignored: The Brain: Bloomberg on the European clubs investing in cognitive training the way they used to invest in physios. Decision-making is the last frontier of soccer performance. As the World Cup begins, more coaches say “game intelligence” can be taught. (Businessweek)

• These Best Friends Turned Their Chemistry Into a Comedy Empire: WSJ profile of Bowen Yang and Matt Rogers and the Las Culturistas business. The audience has the wallet now. They have parlayed their podcast ‘Las Culturistas’ into a glossy brand with a glamorous awards show and a book on the way. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Right Hand of God Game: The Knicks needed a miracle. What they got was the greatest comeback in NBA Finals history. The Ringer on Game 4 of the Finals — OG Anunoby and a Knicks comeback that’s going to live in New York forever. The kind of game the city earns once a decade. The single greatest New York Knicks moment of the 21st century requires a name. Something pithy. Evocative. Iconic. Probably with every word capitalized. It can’t be The Shot (already taken), or any variation thereof. It can’t be The Tip-In (too hyphenated), or The Tap (too dull). What unfolded late Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden, with the Knicks’ title hopes teetering and 20,000 Gothamites gasping, requires more grandeur. (The Ringer)

Video of the day: How Clarkson’s £45M Farm OUTSMARTED The Entire Industry – They Never Saw It Coming!

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT Group and Chair of EQT Asia. EQT is a purpose-driven global investment organization with over $310 billion in total assets under management, making it the largest private markets firm headquartered outside the United States.

 

Banks are laying the groundwork for AI-driven workforce cuts, with executives warning that automation will eliminate some roles

Source: Bloomberg

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

China Is Learning To Use Less Oil, And That's A Bigger Deal Than It Sounds

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Three months into the biggest oil supply disruption in modern history, China appears to have discovered something that should make oil bulls at least a little uncomfortable.

It can get by on less fuel than anyone thought.

China's gasoline and diesel demand has been falling for years as electric vehicles gained market share and economic growth slowed. But the latest drop has surprised even seasoned observers.

According to Reuters, gasoline sales at Sinopec, China's largest refiner and fuel retailer, fell 8% year over year in April, while diesel sales dropped 6%. Goldman Sachs estimates that consumption of gasoline and related products may have fallen by as much as 20%.

China has slashed crude imports since the Iran war began, with May imports plunging 29% to 7.8 million barrels per day—the lowest level in eight years. Until recently, many analysts viewed those cuts primarily as a function of China's enormous oil stockpile and high crude prices.

Now another explanation is emerging: China may simply need less fuel.

Rail travel rose roughly 10% in March and April. Subway ridership continues to climb. Electric taxis are becoming increasingly common. Most notably, EV charging volumes surged 69% from a year earlier to a record high in April, according to the China Charging Alliance.

That shift comes as China's refiners are already grappling with weaker economics. Sinopec cut refining runs earlier this year as Middle Eastern supply disruptions squeezed crude availability, while Beijing has sharply reduced fuel exports to preserve domestic supplies.

The property downturn isn't helping either. Diesel demand from construction, long one of China's most reliable sources of consumption growth, continues to weaken as projects stall and budgets tighten.

The question now is whether the trend sticks.

China's refiners can only draw on inventories for so long. The country still maintains one of the world's largest crude stockpiles, but even a billion barrels eventually run out. At some point, imports will need to recover.

What remains unclear is whether gasoline demand will recover with them.

For decades, China's economic growth was one of the oil market's most dependable bullish arguments. Today’s reports may have some rethinking the strength of that argument.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 06:30

BofA Sees "Runaway Price Risk" In Spot Sulfur As Global Supply Chain Freezes

Sulfur is a critical industrial input produced as a byproduct of oil refining and natural gas processing. With roughly half of the world's seaborne sulfur trade trapped behind the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, another 15% stuck in Kazakhstan due to export-logistics blockades, and demand destruction still insufficient across global markets, Bank of America analysts warn that spot sulfur prices have further upside potential.

Matthew DeYoe, research analyst at BofA Securities, covering all things ag, materials, and chemicals, wrote in a note, "The market is working through unprecedented supply shortages, and prices are inflecting accordingly. Spot sulfur is now ~$1,200/mt, vs a more normal <$200/mt longer term price."

"The inflation is destroying demand across some industries, notably phosphates and pulp & paper, but we are not killing demand fast enough, and margins for metals like copper and lithium are strong enough to keep prices bid," DeYoe noted.

DeYoe said his team spoke earlier this week with Fiona Boyd of Acuity Commodities about global sulfur and sulfuric acid markets, coming away with a clear takeaway: the market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, yet demand destruction has not gone far enough. With supply trapped behind the Hormuz chokepoint, export logistics disrupted in Kazakhstan, and metals producers still able to absorb higher input prices, Boyd warned that spot sulfur prices likely have more upside from here.

DeYoe warned, "Hormuz + Kazakhstan + Russia = runaway price risk."  

He explained further:

Roughly 50% of the world's seaborn traded sulfur is caught behind the SOH and another 15% is trapped in Kazakhstan given export logistic blockades. In total this represents ~30% of the world's sulfur capacity, though it is compounded by sulfuric acid export bans from China and a 3-4mn tonne shortfall to annual Russian exports on account of attacks by Ukraine. Inventory liquidation is helping to buffer, notably in China, which is drawing down its stocks, and Canada, which has ample supply. However, the latter is expensive and slow to mobilize, while the former is running out (Boyd expects 2-4 weeks of safety stock left). Because sulfur is largely a processing byproduct, it is price inelastic, so don't expect more supply because economics are better. Alternatives, such as pyrite, are increasingly sought, but it can't fill the hole. This all puts upside risk to sulfur price.

The near-term fix for the energy crunch, which extends far beyond sulfur markets, is reopening the Hormuz chokepoint. Yet DeYoe warned that even if Hormuz were reopened soon, it would take months to rebalance the market and repair damaged assets. This suggests prices will remain elevated through the end of the year.

Related coverage on the sulfur market:

• Gulf Shock May Spark Shortage Of World's Most Critical Industrial Chemical, Used Heavily In Mining

DeYoe highlights that Mosaic is in focus. Sulfuric acid is a key input for phosphate fertilizer production, and Mosaic relies on sulfur from US Gulf Coast refineries. He noted that high sulfur costs could pressure Mosaic's second-half profits and cash flow, potentially requiring a debt raise. He also added that the odds of US government intervention to restrict sulfur exports to protect domestic DAP fertilizer production could increase.

Professional subscribers can find much more on Gulf energy shock here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 05:45

Traders Are Shorting Oil As If The Hormuz Crisis Is Over

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.

• Physical market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, as global inventories have fallen by about 250 million barrels and key storage hubs like Cushing are approaching critically low levels.

• Analysts warn the market may be underestimating supply risks, with even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely to provide immediate relief.

In yet another sign that the paper oil market may be too complacent about the magnitude of the supply disruption in the Middle East, trades have been boosting their short positions in oil futures for most of the past two months.

Since the beginning of April, portfolio managers have been increasingly betting that oil prices would fall, according to the latest available commitment of traders (COT) data from exchanges as of June 2.

Shorts on Brent Crude tripled between the end of March and the beginning of June, per the data compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.

As of June 2, the short positions in Brent Crude had jumped to their highest level since January, when the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the market expected increased supply from Venezuela in the coming months.

The surge in short positions and the weeks-long selloff of longs in the past eight weeks suggest traders are betting that supply will be restored soon.

The paper market plays on hopes, expectations, sentiments, and fears, and the sum of all these right now appears to be that the hedge fund and portfolio manager community is reluctant to bet on a summer of actual physical supply shortages.

But the paper market may soon face the reality of crumbling global inventories, including in the United States, where stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI Crude, are just a few weeks away from dropping to minimum operational levels.

Too much noise about the ceasefire, which is being tested almost daily with one strike or a retaliatory hit after another, doesn’t help the paper market that may have become too detached from the magnitude of the supply loss.

Traders react to every signal of ‘imminent deal’ with selloffs, only to start buying oil futures again when Israeli strikes in Lebanon, U.S. ‘self-defense’ strikes on Iran, or Iranian hits at regional infrastructure threaten to unravel the fragile ceasefire.

All the while, paper market participants continue to hope for an imminent resolution and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that would flood the market with oil. And that’s been their hope for three and a half months now.

The thing is, even a full reopening of the Strait would not lead to immediate relief for buyers. First, ship owners and operators will need to have guarantees that they wouldn’t be caught off-guard with stranded tankers again. Then, the oil cargoes will need weeks to reach buyers—weeks that the market may not have amid peak summer demand season.

The world has lost about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its market report for May.

“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.

Sooner rather than later, oil on water volumes and onshore inventories will be depleted, leaving demand destruction the only buffer to cap oil price spikes.

Moreover, the extreme price volatility and the noise about a deal coming any day now are sidelining part of the trader community.

“Participants continue to sit on the sidelines, given the market's fluidity, uncertainty, and headline-driven nature,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Wednesday.

“This is reflected in the aggregate open interest in ICE Brent, which has continued to trend lower and stands at its lowest level since August 2025.”

Many traders have been shorting oil since April in the hope that the ceasefire and the negotiations would yield a peace deal before the world runs out of buffers to offset most of the supply disruption.

“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks,” Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.

“We're likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there's more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

According to the Wednesday note of ING’s strategists, “With no imminent deal in sight and with the global oil market tightening significantly every day, we see upside to prices, particularly if these disruptions linger into the third quarter, a period of seasonally stronger oil demand.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 05:00

The post Inflation and Revisiting Section 230 – Make Musk and Zuckerberg Pay appeared first on CEPR.

Australian Financial Watchdogs Back New Powers To Curb Money-Laundering Via Crypto

Authored by Rex Widerstrom via The Epoch Times,

Australian crime-fighting and financial agencies are moving to prevent the use of cryptocurrency for money laundering, scams, and money-mule activities.

Illustration of Bitcoin and Ethereum coins held together in front of diverses EURO banknotes in Paris, France, on June 5, 2026. Joao Luiz Bulcao/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

The Australian Banking Association (ABA), Transparency International, and the regulator, AUSTRAC (Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre), are backing a proposal to amend the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act.

The change means the CEO of AUSTRAC can limit or stop a "reporting entity" or institution from using a "high-risk mechanism," such as cryptocurrency, to transfer funds.

The CEO must be satisfied that transferring funds has or will cause "significant harm to either the financial system, the Australian community, or both."

Currently, there are around 19,000 reporting entities, including banks and credit unions; non-bank lenders and stockbrokers; gambling and bullion service providers; and remittance service and virtual asset service providers (VASPs).

All are required to have processes and controls in place to protect their systems from criminal misuse.

Yet that number will soon expand to over 100,000 when new sectors, including lawyers, accountants, conveyancers, real estate professionals, and dealers in precious metals and stones, come under Australia's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regime from July 1 this year.

Sector-Wide Powers Needed, AUSTRAC Argues

Senator Michaela Cash asked what evidence suggested AUSTRAC's current powers were inadequate.

Daniel Mossop, the centre's national manager for policy rules, said current law mandated that the agency take a case-by-case approach, looking at individual businesses.

"What we can't do is have a look at a sector or a channel or a product and say, 'On the basis of what we are seeing here, there is an unacceptable risk,' [and] when you're dealing with really high-risk things, [it] becomes more inefficient.

"What we've seen over the last few years is a proliferation of new channels, payment methods, and products ... the real diversification of the market.

"When we have looked at some of these channels, what we have seen is high levels of criminal misuse in particular sectors, and that has caused us, along with the department [of Home Affairs], to start questioning whether the policy and legislative settings are right to deal with that type of threat," Mossop said.

Cash then asked officials whether they would support a change requiring the AUSTRAC CEO to report to Parliament on any prohibitions imposed.

Andrew Warnes, first assistant secretary of Home Affairs' criminal justice division, said there would be a "range of information" available and that lawmakers could always overturn the CEO's decision.

"We do not expect the power will be used particularly regularly," Warnes said.

"It will be a power that will be used occasionally, at best, based on our discussions with AUSTRAC. And when you look at the use of other powers in AUSTRAC's legislation, this is going to sit at the higher end, and you will have that parliamentary review, ostensibly of [every decision].

"A review mechanism is ultimately a matter for parliament, if it wants to do it. I expect this will be used on such a sparse occasion that your review will only be looking at one example. The next mechanism that might be banned might not have even been invented yet."

Crypto ATMs Major Area Of Concern

One are of concern is cryptocurrency ATMs, which have proliferated from 23 machines in 2019 to about 2,000 today - Australia has the third highest volume of such machines globally.

AUSTRAC told the committee it estimates that almost 150,000 transactions, totalling over $275 million, occur every year via crypto ATMs, with about 99 percent being cash deposits to make purchases.

The ABA says (pdf) they have been linked to "significant scam-related activity, high-risk cash-based transactions, and the rapid movement of illicit funds."

The recent Crypto Crime Report, shows a 162 percent year-on-year increase in the amount of cryptocurrency received by criminals.

That led the ABA to suggest the new powers be used on that channel than on banks.

"Banks are already subject to prudential supervision by APRA (Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority) and market conduct regulation by ASIC (Australian Securities and Investment Commission), both of which hold comparable product intervention powers," said Chris Taylor, the ABA's chief of policy.

"Extending the AUSTRAC CEO's power to ADIs (Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions) creates overlapping regulatory authority without a corresponding uplift in risk mitigation."

Further, crypto ATMs charge fees of up to 17 to 19 percent, or more, on the purchase of cryptocurrency.

"There's clearly some degree of consumer harm or some risk of consumer harm going on," Taylor argued.

"AUSTRAC's data is clearly showing that people who are using these ATMs are either themselves subject to a scam or they are involved in money mule activities, which is helping to move criminal proceeds, either from scams or from other types of illicit activities, so we really struggle to see a legitimate use case here."

A large number of scam victims tricked into sending money via crypto ATMs were elderly, Taylor said.

"When AUSTRAC first released this data, they talked about an 85-year-old woman who had physically fed in, over the course of a year, $325,000 of her life savings. That's heartbreaking."

The banks also want the period during which any channel was prohibited to be reduced from 3 years to 18 months, in line with the powers of ASIC.

Transparency International supported the bill, saying in its submission that, "For too long, Australia has been a major destination for kleptocrats, organised crime gangs, and corrupt officials to wash their illicit funds. Much of this dirty money flows out of low and middle-income countries."

The bill also amends the meaning of financing terrorism to include new offences of providing monetary support to a state sponsor of terrorism.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 20:05