Individual Economists

Prosecutors In Charlie Kirk Slaying Case Say Evidence Supports Death Penalty

Zero Hedge -

Prosecutors In Charlie Kirk Slaying Case Say Evidence Supports Death Penalty

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

Prosecutors on Aug. 18 urged a Utah judge to uphold all charges, including one carrying a potential death sentence, in the case against Charlie Kirk’s accused killer.

In their 19-page filing in Utah County’s Fourth District Court, prosecutors rebutted an Aug. 11 memo from lawyers representing the defendant, Tyler James Robinson, 23.

Robinson’s defense team had argued that evidence presented during a preliminary hearing last month failed to support the death penalty. They said that the evidence also did not establish “probable cause”—a reasonable belief that their client committed the alleged offenses. Under Utah law, that standard must be met for the case to proceed to trial.

Prosecutors counter-argued that defense lawyers ignored important facts damning to their client while misconstruing legal standards to favor him.

Further, prosecutors said evidence clearly shows that others besides Kirk were at great risk of being killed—an “aggravating” circumstance that supports a death-penalty-level charge, they argued.

A gunman, alleged to be Robinson, fatally shot Kirk in the neck on Sept. 10, 2025, as he spoke to a crowd of about 3,000 people in a courtyard at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Some attendees were “in the line of fire,” while other people were near Kirk, putting them in the “zone of danger,” prosecutors said.

Those basic facts show that other people’s lives were imperiled, they argued.

Defense lawyers had said, “The State has failed to show that the actual conduct created a ‘high probability’ that someone other than Mr. Kirk would be killed.”

However, prosecutors pointed out that defense lawyers made no challenge to evidence showing that Robinson “was the person who crawled to the sniper’s perch ... fired the fatal shot ... hid the rifle in a wooded area, got rid of some of the clothing he was wearing, and told his roommate to delete their texts about the shooting.”

Robinson is accused of aggravated murder, a capital offense, in the highly publicized assassination case.

Kirk was a 31-year-old father of two who founded Turning Point USA, a conservative youth political movement that spread internationally.

Prosecutors allege that Robinson targeted Kirk because he opposed Kirk’s political and religious stances.

The defendant also faces six other charges: two counts of obstructing justice, two counts of witness tampering, and a count each of causing serious bodily harm by discharging a firearm and committing violence in the presence of a child.

The next step in the case is set for Sept. 1, when the lawyers will make oral arguments to Judge Tony Graf Jr. in his courtroom in Provo, Utah.

Graf is tasked with deciding whether prosecutors provided sufficient evidence of probable cause.

In a July 28 court filing, prosecutors told the judge that a four-day preliminary hearing earlier that month produced clear-cut evidence against Robinson.

“This is likely as straight-forward a bind-over decision as this Court will ever see,” they wrote, adding: “This isn’t a close case. The State presented more than enough evidence to support a probable cause finding on all seven charges.”

Prosecutors said that the defendant admitted to “several friends, including his roommate and romantic partner, that he assassinated Charlie Kirk.”

Robinson surrendered to police following those alleged admissions, and DNA evidence links him to gun parts and other items found near the shooting site, in addition to eyewitness testimony and surveillance, they pointed out.

It is unclear whether Graf will rule immediately after the Sept. 1 hearing. Attorneys representing Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, requested that Graf issue his decision no later than that date.

If Graf finds probable cause, he must “bind over” the case for trial; otherwise, the judge is required to dismiss the charges—although prosecutors could resubmit the case.

Felony criminal cases may bypass a preliminary hearing when prosecutors present evidence directly to a grand jury and secure an indictment.

However, Robinson was charged under a prosecutor’s “information.” That requires prosecutors to present evidence at a preliminary hearing and obtain a judge’s probable-cause ruling unless the defendant waives that right.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 13:45

Ugly, Tailing 20Y Auction Prices At 2nd Highest Yield On Record; Would Have Been Highest If Bessent Hadn't Panicked

Zero Hedge -

Ugly, Tailing 20Y Auction Prices At 2nd Highest Yield On Record; Would Have Been Highest If Bessent Hadn't Panicked

After today's stunning announcement by the Treasury it was doubling the size of long-end buyback operations to boost liquidity in the space, many were closely watching today's 20Y auction - which is viewed as the proximal catalyst to trigger Bessent's panic as it was going to price at the highest yield in the history of the 20Y auction - to see how much demand there was for this key paper. As it turns out: not a whole lot.

The auction priced at a high yield of 5.204%, up materially from 5.163% a month ago, and like in July today's auction tailed the When Issued by 0.5bps which is the first red light: despite today's massive intervention by the Treasury, demand was still at best lackluster.

But looking closer at today's 20Y yield moves, we can see why Bessent panicked: had he done nothing, today's high yield would have been the highest in 20Y history... and following the recent ugly 30Y auction, this is not what the bond market would have wanted to see. So to make sure the August 2026 auction priced inside the record high set in October 2023 with a 5.245% yielding auction, Bessent announced the buyback boost, which was enough to send 20Y yields 8bps lower, or enough to make today's auction yield the second highest on record.

The bid to cover of today's 20Y auction was 2.53, down from 2.64 in July and down sharply from 2.75% in June. It was also the lowest since February and one of the lowest on record. 

The internals were also a mess: foreign buyers (Indirects) were awarded just 62.9%, down sharply from 69.1% and the lowest since February (also well below the recent average of 66.7%). And with Directs taking 24.6% of the auction, or the highest since February (oddly enough, Directs now surge whenever Indirects tumble and vice verse, almost as if they have a direct mandate from the Treasury), Dealers were left holding 12.5%, down from 14.7% but in line with the recent average of 11.5%.

Overall, this was a very lousy 20Y auction, but it could have been much worse had the Treasury not stepped in this morning. The flip side, of course, is that even with the Treasury's intervention, this was a barely passable auction and suggests that just like Bessent's yentervention, the half-life of his latest attempt to stabilize the bond market will be measured in weeks if not days.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 13:40

Another Top Zelensky Aide Fired Amid Corruption Probe, House Raid

Zero Hedge -

Another Top Zelensky Aide Fired Amid Corruption Probe, House Raid

Another top official has been dismissed in Ukraine's government, accompanied with the usual police raids on homes amid fresh corruption probes... but this time the scandal once again runs straight through Zelensky's office.

"Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau said it had launched an operation linked to an alleged criminal organization involving current and former MPs and senior officials in the presidential administration," EuroNews reports.

"Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired the deputy head of the presidential office Iryna Mudra on Wednesday, his office announced, on the same day the country's anti-corruption investigators launched a major operation targeting an alleged criminal organization involving politicians and senior government officials," the report adds. A presidential office statement confirmed: "Iryna Mudra shall be dismissed from the post of deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine."

Via Ukrinform

While no names have been disclosed as specifically part of the fresh ongoing actions and investigation by the NABU and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), Ukrainian media has cited sources alleging that senior officials from the President’s Office of Ukraine also involved.

And so Iryna Mudra 'shock' dismissal on the very day of these raids and newly unveiled investigations is obviously more than just coincidence. 

Ukrainian and regional media says her properties are being searched

According to information from Ukrainian parliament member Oleksiy Honcharenko, investigators searched the premises of Iryna Mudra, deputy head of the President’s Office. He gave no further details about the case.

The outlet Zerkalo Nedeli reports that the NABU and SAPO operation also involves Vadym Stolar, a lawmaker from the former Opposition Platform — For Life party, and Maksym Mykytas, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament, in addition to Mudra. Officials from the Justice Ministry and representatives of Sense Bank (formerly Alfa-Bank Ukraine) also appear in the case.

The operation was code-named “Forrest Gump.” NABU released a fragment of an audio recording capturing conversations among people named in the case, in which they mention “four sacks” and the President’s Office. “Only a moron would register stolen money and tuition payments in his own children’s names,” a voice on the recording also says.

All of this follows on a series of prior investigations by NABU and SAPO into corruption at the highest levels of government, which has taken down many officials and been an ongoing source of embarrassment for Ukraine.

And as a reminder, back in May of this year:

Ukraine’s anti-corruption court Thursday ordered the arrest of Andriy Yermak, a close ally of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and former head of his administration, on money-laundering charges.

The court also set bail at 140 million hryvnias ($3.19 million), which would allow Yermak, who has denied the allegations, to be released pending a final ruling in his case.

However, these investigations tended to get spun as if 'heroic' Zelensky is on a mission, destroying the rot from within...

And there's this from the same journalist, Mark Ames...

Every shocking Zelensky corruption scandal - and they keep getting worse - is PR’d away as “proof that Ukraine is a functioning western democracy fighting corruption”, as if it’s always one corruption scandal away from turning the corner & becoming Denmark.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 13:25

Why Are White Liberal Women Identifying With A Child Murderer?

Zero Hedge -

Why Are White Liberal Women Identifying With A Child Murderer?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Three innocent children are dead. Their mother has admitted killing them. And yet a growing chorus of white liberal women on TikTok and beyond is racing to cast her as the real victim, pouring money into her family's fundraiser and filming themselves relating to the confessed killer while cradling their own babies.

Lindsay Clancy strangled her three children - Cora, 5, Dawson, 3, and Callan, then 8 months - with exercise bands in the basement of the family's Duxbury, Massachusetts home on January 24, 2023. She then cut her wrists and neck and jumped from a second-story window, leaving herself paralyzed and wheelchair-bound.

Her defense does not dispute that she killed the children. Attorney Kevin Reddington has told the court she was suffering from postpartum psychosis and was not criminally responsible. Prosecutors maintain she acted intentionally, rationally, and with premeditation.

The trial is ongoing in Plymouth Superior Court; the prosecution recently rested after calling more than 70 witnesses, and the defense is now presenting its case, including testimony from Clancy's mother about her daughter's mental decline and pleas for help.

None of that has stopped the online transformation of a triple child murder into a cause for certain women. Clancy's parents, Mike and Paula Musgrove, have a GoFundMe that has rocketed past $900,000 - approaching $1M from more than 27,000 donors - with a $2 million goal.

The money is framed as covering the couple's travel, lodging, and living costs after they relocated from Connecticut to stand by their daughter through the proceedings. Supportive comments on the page frequently emphasize her mental-health struggles more than the three dead children. Funds are earmarked for the parents' ongoing costs during the trial.

Critics note that crowdfunding platforms have rules against funding criminal defense, and some have called for the campaign to be reported. Others see the outpouring as further evidence that large numbers of women are prioritizing gender solidarity over the basic reality that three children were murdered by their own mother.

That solidarity has spilled into TikTok in especially unsettling ways. Women have posted videos declaring Clancy the winner of a trial that is still underway, claiming she "proved" postpartum psychosis the moment she killed her children. The jury has not decided anything. The judge has not ruled on the central question of criminal responsibility. Yet creators speak as if the outcome is already settled in her favor.

Others go further, insisting Clancy is actually innocent despite her own admissions, her lawyer's opening statements, her husband's 911 call in which he screamed that she had killed the kids, and the civil lawsuit she filed against her therapists that explicitly acknowledges she killed her own children.

Some have hung out windows or filmed themselves in performative displays to argue her innocence. One widely circulated reaction asked whether these women are bored, lonely, or simply completely detached from reality.

The pattern is familiar to observers of recent high-profile cases: a refusal to accept female accountability when the facts are inconvenient. As one commentator noted, it does not matter to this cohort that Clancy admitted the murders, just as it did not matter that Amber Heard admitted lying about abuse. The priority is that women not be held fully responsible.

Even more alarming are the videos in which mothers film themselves relating to Clancy while holding their own infants. Women have recorded themselves discussing identification with the child killer while cradling babies.

Critics have called the decision to film such material with children an alarming one, with some arguing it should prompt child protective services involvement.

This disturbing AI video has been circulated widely on TikTok:

One single mother went further still, asserting that any man who believes Clancy should go to prison for murdering her children probably abuses his wife. She added that she is "just waiting for some man out there to prove to me that there are some good ones."

The response was swift and withering: the women who claim to be searching for good men are often the same ones who date the worst of them, and the demand that men prove themselves by refusing to call a child killer a child killer is a particularly inverted form of accountability.

Clancy's defense attorney admitted in opening statements that she killed her children. She has filed a lawsuit against her therapists that also admits the killings. Her husband testified about the night he discovered the bodies and about a later phone call in which she described hearing a man's voice telling her that if she did not act she would lose her chance.

None of this has deterred the conspiracy theories that the husband somehow framed her, or the broader insistence that the medical system alone is to blame and that Clancy herself bears no criminal responsibility that should result in prison.

Mental illness is real. Postpartum psychosis is real and can be considered at sentencing. But it does not erase what happened. Three children are dead because their mother killed them. That is the central, undisputed fact of the case.

The spectacle of women identifying with the killer, fundraising for her parents at near-million-dollar levels, and filming themselves relating to her while holding their own kids reveals something deeper than sympathy for mental illness. It reveals a cultural refusal, concentrated among a particular demographic of women, to prioritize murdered children over a narrative of female victimhood.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 13:05

Jeffrey Tucker Reveals The Insidious Reason For The Lockdowns

Zero Hedge -

Jeffrey Tucker Reveals The Insidious Reason For The Lockdowns

Jeffrey Tucker - founder and president of the Brownstone Institute, says top FDA and NIH officials told him that the purpose of the COVID-19 lockdowns were "to delay the onset of natural immunity… until after the shots were online."

Tucker sat down for an hour-long conversation with Dr. Jessica Rose, where he says that 'multiple sources' who were involved in the response confirmed the bombshell revelation "without a shadow of a doubt." 

As Vigilant Fox notes - 

The lockdowns that wiped out small businesses. The school closures that sent children's reading scores back to 1971. The plexiglass, the masking, the stay-at-home orders. None of it was about keeping us safe. “It was exactly the opposite,” as Tucker put it.

Watch:

TUCKER: “We all have what we consider to be the most shocking feature of the COVID response. But for me, I still can’t get over the fact that I was told by top FDA, NIH officials that a major reason for social distancing, lockdowns, masking, Plexiglas, stay-at-home orders, and everything else was to delay the onset of natural immunity, to delay rising seroprevalence levels, to delay endemicity until after the shots were online.

“So, it wasn’t just that all these tactics, these sort of social engineering tactics, were designed to keep us [safe]. Well, no, it was exactly the opposite. It was to keep us from gaining natural capacity to resist the virus.

“So that they could wait until the injection came along. So the injection could be deployed and experimented upon us and, and thereby get all the credit for having solved the issue.

That sounds like a wild conspiracy theory, but that’s what they meant by ‘flatten the curve.’ Flatten the curve meant to prolong the pain, delay the solution. And it sounds crazy until you hear it from people who were there on the ground, in the agencies, in the companies, watching all this unfold.

“And multiple sources have confirmed this without a shadow of doubt in their mind that was the real purpose of the school closures, the business shutdowns, the stay-at-home orders, the travel restrictions, and everything: to delay the point at which we would have solved, essentially solved, the problem through natural exposure and immune upgrades.”

h/t Vigilant Fox - give him a follow!

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 12:25

Cherokee Nation In The US Bans Data Center Development

Zero Hedge -

Cherokee Nation In The US Bans Data Center Development

By Jason Ma of DataCenterDynamics

The Cherokee Nation in the US has banned data center development on its lands, according to an announcement made by its Chief Chuck Hoskin on August 5, Thursday.

“It’s clear that our Cherokee Nation Administration, Council, and citizens have serious concerns about the construction of hyperscale data centers on our tribal lands, which affect our resources and cultural lifeways. Our primary responsibility is to protect our citizens and tribal communities from these threats, so we will not support any hyperscale data centers on our reservation without proper consultation,” Chief Hoskin said.

“We want these companies to know that we expect them to engage with us early and transparently, as these projects impact every Cherokee.”

On the same day, the Cherokee Nation also released a report on data centers, which found that 64 percent of the 1,593 Cherokee Nation citizens surveyed did support hyperscale data center construction within the Reservation, a 7,000 sqm (75,347 sq ft) area in northeastern Oklahoma where the nation has legislative, executive, and judicial powers. Only 14 percent supported their development, and 22 percent remained unsure.

The report states that two data center projects – Project Clydesdale, a $1 billion campus in Tulsa County, and Project Mustang, potentially located in the Claremore Industrial Park – are currently under development within the Cherokee Nation Reservation.

But the report also emphasized that the nation had an interest in “continued reliable, secure, cost-effective access to colocation and cloud services for government and business operations, disaster recovery, and sovereign systems including tribal registration and vehicle tag administration.”

In August, a broadband data center was built in the Hoopa Valley Reservation, home to the Hoopa Valley Tribe in northwest California.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 12:10

"This Is Huge!": Trump Hails Ibogaine Application Gift Aimed At Helping Veterans With Mental Illness

Zero Hedge -

"This Is Huge!": Trump Hails Ibogaine Application Gift Aimed At Helping Veterans With Mental Illness

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said that the University of Miami has given its original 1994 investigational new drug application for ibogaine to the federal government, a move he said would accelerate development of the psychedelic substance as a treatment for serious mental illness.

The gift aims to speed work on the substance as a possible treatment for serious mental illness suffered by veterans.

The 1994 application was the original filing that made early research into ibogaine possible.

Trump made the announcement on Aug. 18 in a Truth Social post.

“Today I am announcing that Secretary Kennedy has received a Historic Gift from the University of Miami, who has given the Federal Government its original 1994 Ibogaine Investigational New Drug application,” he wrote.

This will give everyone direct access to the foundational FDA authorization to accelerate its development as a medical treatment in the U.S. This is HUGE! Special THANK YOU to the University of Miami, who has done this to ensure that Americans are helped as quickly as possible.”

Trump tied the donation directly to an executive order he signed in April. That order sought to accelerate medical treatments for serious mental illness, with a specific focus on psychedelic drugs including ibogaine.

“In April, I signed a very important Executive Order to accelerate medical treatments for serious mental illness — Specifically, psychedelic drugs, including IBOGAINE,” the president wrote.

“This is something that has helped so many of our amazing VETERANS and true American Heroes who were here in the Oval Office with me, and Joe Rogan.”

Trump said the university’s action builds on steps already taken since April, including substantial Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) research funding, collaboration between HHS and the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Food and Drug Administration guidance.

The president stressed the need to move quickly to bring potential new treatments to market.

“We are moving FAST, so that our Veterans with serious mental illness have a RIGHT TO TRY here in the U.S.,” he wrote.

“We hope to see more companies and institutions join us in this very important work. Our Veterans DESERVE it!”

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has fully supported the administration’s efforts to speed up experimental treatments.

“Thanks to the leadership of President Trump, under this historic Executive Order, @HHSGov will accelerate research, approval, and access to new mental health treatments, including psychedelic therapies such as ibogaine,” Kennedy said after the April order.

At a Senate hearing in April, Kennedy described ibogaine as the “most promising treatment for depression and PTSD that anybody’s ever seen.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 11:30

La-Z-Boy Crashes Most Since 2022 As Frozen Housing Market Crushes Sofa Demand

Zero Hedge -

La-Z-Boy Crashes Most Since 2022 As Frozen Housing Market Crushes Sofa Demand

La-Z-Boy shares suffered their steepest decline in 4.5 years on Wednesday after the furniture maker's second-quarter guidance missed expectations, providing even more evidence that weak housing turnover has suppressed demand for big-ticket discretionary goods such as sofas and recliners. With mortgage rates elevated and home prices near record levels, affordability remains severely stretched, keeping transaction volumes depressed, thus limiting replacement purchases that typically drive furniture demand.

La-Z-Boy forecasted second-quarter sales of $475.7 million, down 3% from a year earlier and well below the $537 million average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg. It forecast an adjusted operating margin of 3.9% to 4.8% and a reported operating margin ranging from negative .4% to 4.5%.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Bradley Thomas said the company issued sales and implied earnings guidance below consensus, pressured partly by continued investment.

The soft guidance followed a weaker-than-expected first quarter. Adjusted earnings came in at 43 cents a share, compared with 47 cents one year ago and below the 49-cent analyst estimate. On a reported basis, La-Z-Boy lost 6 cents a share, compared with earnings of 44 cents a year earlier. 

Sofas and recliners are considered highly deferrable purchases - non-essential goods. The stock's 14% plunge suggests investors view the dismal evidence as further evidence that households are delaying discretionary spending and that the trend will persist, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remaining around 6.7%.

The broader read-through is that dismal housing conditions have also dampened home-improvement demand at Home Depot and Lowe's, as confirmed in this week's earnings. Wayfair, RH, and Williams-Sonoma have also experienced sluggish demand for big-ticket household items. 

La-Z-Boy is another canary in the coal mine, warning that America's frozen housing market continues to dampen consumer demand for big-ticket items. Last week, July retail sales were a major disappointment, with discretionary categories seeing sharp pullbacks. This all comes as the national average for gasoline at the pump is over $4 per gallon, continuing to dent consumer sentiment.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 11:10

How Wealth Is Created in America

The Big Picture -

 

Recent claims of the “Closing of the K” are wishful thinking.

I have a longish piece on this that I plan to cut down to a manageable size soon. But before we can intelligently discuss “K” or “C” or “E,” we need to understand the two arms of the K. In particular, what is the source of wealth of the upper arm? 1

There are many great sources, but the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, along with the Fed Z1 Flow of Funds, remains the gold standard.

 

1. Start a Business: At the $25 million level – aka the top 0.1% (UHNW) – it is all about founding and selling a business. This is by far the #1 source of wealth in America.

And no, it is not just Silicon Valley technology startups; rather, it is more mundane, everyday businesses. HVAC roll-ups, car dealerships, trash collection companies, beverage distributors, regional construction firms, medical practices scaled into groups, etc. The liquidity event is a sale to a larger national competitor, a strategic buyer, or a private equity purchaser.

Data from Altrata shows 70% of the UHNW individuals are self-made, with business ownership dominating.

2. Equity: (in someone else’s company). Early employees and executives at a company that IPOs, or a Fortune 500 C-suite, can compound RSUs, options, and performance shares over decades.

Since the mid-1980s, this has been one of the best wealth creation machines; it barely existed before the 1990s.

3. Inheritance and family wealth. 25% of UHNW wealth is inherited. Some of this was a small fortune that the next generation turned into a large fortune (massive market gains since 1982 did not hurt either). There is growing skepticism that the $105 trillion “great wealth transfer” will make this category appreciably bigger.

Surprising not to see this higher on the list

4. Real estate. No surprise here, development and ownership of commercial and residential real estate have been huge wealth creators.

I know quite a few multi-generational family real estate operations and developers who accumulated huge portfolios of commercial/multifamily through the modest, intelligent use of leverage. CRE/RRE are uniquely tax-advantaged via 1031 exchange, depreciation, and step-up at death.

My favorite quote from a buddy in the industry: “It’s the perfect business for your not-so-bright progeny.” (!)

5. Finance. Duh. Hedge fund, private equity, and VC principals, investment banking, trading, wealth management, M&A, you name it.2

And it is one of the few businesses with an inherent 10% structural tailwind built in…

6.  Professionals. Medical center ownerships, major accounting, law, and consulting firms. The key difference between just a doctor or lawyer and an operator is owning the enterprise, not just making money via billable hours.

7. Concentrated public-market positions held for decades. The person who bought (or was granted) Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire in the 80s–90s and never sold. Rare as a deliberate strategy, common as an outcome. Often overlaps with #2.

8. Entertainment, media, and sports. Small but culturally visible, it has become a source of wealth from the business built around the fame. Shaq is a major investor/business owner, Michael Jordan gets huge revenues from Nike’s Air Jordan and has a piece of the Hornets; LeBron is a major investor; lots of actors became moguls by owning a production company, in addition to licensing their name and brand to a product.

9. Franchising. Owning a few dozen McDonald’s, Taco Bells, or Planet Fitness locations is definitely unsexy, but it is a systematic, repeatable way to create predictable revenue over time. That compounds into real wealth.

10. Windfalls and asymmetric bets. Early crypto, lottery-like startup angel checks, litigation settlements, even mineral rights. Very small, and not at all replicable, but it has created some real wealth out there. I hesitated to put this one in because it encourages low-probability (dumb) behaviors, but the numbers back up that this longshot has created actual wealth for a lucky few.

~~~

The bottom-line: nobody gets wealthy on salary and a 401(k) alone.

There is another conversation to be had about what options and opportunities are open to Gen X (and younger). I will come back to that in the future.

 

 

Sources:
Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF)
Federal Reserve Research

Altrata’s World Ultra Wealth Report 2026 Annual Analysis of the Global UHNW Population

Portfolios Across the U.S. Wealth Distribution
By John Bailey Jones and Urvi Neelakantan
Richmond Fed, November 2023, No. 23-39

Trends in the Distribution of Family Wealth, 1989 to 2022
Congressional Budget Office

 

 

 

Previously:
Let’s Talk About Cash… (August 12, 2026)

Wealth Distribution Analysis (July 18, 2019)

Wealth Effect Rumors Have Been Greatly Exaggerated (November 16, 2010)

 

__________

1. Or whatever other ridiculous shorthand for the intricate complexity that is the $32 trillion US economy.

2. The carried interest deduction is arguably the single most efficient wealth-creation mechanism ever devised. And it’s an absolute scam, too.

 

 

The post How Wealth Is Created in America appeared first on The Big Picture.

SK Hynix Unleashes South Korea's Biggest-Ever 'Buyback Bazooka' To Halt Stock Rout

Zero Hedge -

SK Hynix Unleashes South Korea's Biggest-Ever 'Buyback Bazooka' To Halt Stock Rout

Asian equities fell sharply overnight as the regional semiconductor rout intensified following another downdraft in US chipmakers on Tuesday (read morning wrap). Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan led the regional declines, while Chinese stocks also weakened despite the blockbuster IPO of humanoid robotics maker Unitree.

Against that bearish backdrop, SK Hynix announced the largest share buyback in South Korean history, a highly aggressive attempt to arrest a six-week selloff that has erased roughly half of its market value. The scale of the buyback shows just how concerned management is that the drawdown has become disconnected from the company's fundamentals and underscores its desire to put a floor under the stock.

Nikkei Asia reports that SK Hynix's stock buyback program totals a staggering 40 trillion won, or $28.6 billion, and will involve purchasing 24.1 million treasury shares in the open market from Thursday through Nov. 19 to improve shareholder value.

"The decision stems from the assessment that the company's intrinsic value -- underpinned by its business competitiveness, robust cash generation capability, and mid-to-long-term growth potential -- is not fully reflected in its current stock price," SK Hynix said in a statement. The company noted that progress toward its financial health targets remains on track, affirming its "commitment to maintaining a stable financial structure while delivering sustained shareholder value."

SK Hynix's announcement followed a nearly 10% drop in the stock during overnight trading in South Korea, as rising bond yields, persistent inflation, and the deepening US-Iran crisis sparked a broader move out of semi stocks. Samsung Electronics also tumbled nearly 8%, while South Korea's main equity index, the Kospi, fell 5.8%.

Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne warned clients on Monday that rising energy prices and an elevated rate environment, especially in the US, have sparked a rotation out of semiconductor stocks and into high-quality energy and materials stocks (read report).

Here's more color on SK Hynix's buyback program from the Japanese outlet:

SK Hynix said the buyback program marks the largest treasury share cancellation ever conducted by a South Korean-listed company. The Lee Jae Myung government encouraged listed companies to buy back and cancel treasury shares to address the so-called Korea discount, in which investors have historically undervalued the country's stocks due to poor corporate governance and low shareholder return.

Macquarie analyst Daniel Kim provided clients this morning with why the buyback program is very important

Why it matters

  • More to come. Won40tr might be short of the market’s high and hasty expectations. However, we still think that this is just the beginning. We calculate the remainder to be returned to shareholders to be Won243tr in case of 50% FCF and Won358tr in case of 70% FCF. This is equivalent to 22% and 33% of its market cap, respectively.
  • Optimal capital structure. We estimate its net cash position to mushroom from Won69tr in 2Q26 to Won192tr in 2026-end and to Won523tr (50% of its market cap) in 2027. This would be way higher than the level of cash on hand the company wants to keep to cover 2 years’ capex, or over Won120tr.
  • Additional ADR issuance. Assuming SK Hynix issues the same 24.07mn shares, or 240.7mn ADR (10 ADR to 1 underlying), the company can bring in Won59tr proceeds due to a 47% ADR price premium, resulting in even higher net cash balance. In other words, its cash balance should continue to swell, and we think its war chest should be strong enough to return even 100% of FCF like its US peers.
  • Likely a big increase in cash dividend. We expect Hynix to increase cash dividend substantially from 2026. This should be positive for SK Square (402340 KS, Outperform), which owns 20% stake in SK Hynix. Hynix increased capital surplus by Won4tr in 1Q26, which could be paid as tax-free cash dividend for 2026. Thanks to ADR issuance, Hynix now has more room to raise capital surplus and accordingly is able to increase tax-free 2027 cash dividend.
  • Upside to 50% of FCF. Management alludes the upside to the current 50% FCF rule and the mix of capital return could be skewed to share buybacks versus cash dividend. Different from its local peer, SK Hynix will not count the spending on M&A in FCF calculation.

What now

  • SK Hynix, in our view, is in oversold territory, considering strong earnings momentum, continued shareholder value enhancement. Outperform.

SK Hynix's shares in Korea are down 45% on the year. US ADRs are up 6% in early trading. 

SK Hynix accounted for 21.43% of the Kospi's market capitalization at Tuesday's close, making it the index's second-largest constituent, behind Samsung Electronics at 27.71%.

Any reversal in SK Hynix could help stabilize the broader equity index...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 10:00

Holy Grail In Cancer Treatment? Moderna Erupts After Melanoma Vaccine Late-Stage Trial Success

Zero Hedge -

Holy Grail In Cancer Treatment? Moderna Erupts After Melanoma Vaccine Late-Stage Trial Success

Moderna's shares soared as much as 83% in premarket trading in New York after its personalized cancer vaccine, developed in collaboration with Merck & Co., reduced the risk of melanoma returning in a large, late-stage trial. The result marks the first positive Phase 3 trial for a personalized cancer vaccine by any company. 

The study met its primary endpoint by showing that the cancer vaccine, called intismeran autogene, combined with Merck's blockbuster immunotherapy Keytruda, improved recurrence-free survival compared with Keytruda alone. The study also met a secondary endpoint by reducing the risk of cancer spreading to other parts of the body.

Professor Georgina Long, the study's principal investigator, medical director of Melanoma Institute Australia, and chair of Melanoma Medical Oncology and Translational Research at the University of Sydney, wrote in a statement:

Today's results represent a landmark moment for adjuvant melanoma treatment. This is the first Phase 3 study to show that intismeran, a treatment designed based on the unique mutational 'fingerprint' of a patient's own tumor, given in combination with pembrolizumab, can reduce the risk of recurrence or death in patients with completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma compared with KEYTRUDA alone.

Intismeran in combination with pembrolizumab has the potential to establish a new treatment paradigm in the adjuvant melanoma setting, helping patients remain cancer-free for longer.

Moderna and Merck did not disclose exact figures showing how much the therapy improved recurrence-free survival. The trial remains ongoing. Additional details will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting, and the vaccine could receive approval as early as 2027, depending on the regulatory review.

As of 0700 ET, Moderna shares were up 60% and trading around $100 per share. Short interest represents 13.5% of the float, equivalent to 49.8 million shares. Merck shares are up 7% in premarket as well. 

Melanoma is the most serious form of skin cancer. About 112,000 people are diagnosed annually in the US, and about 8,500 die from the disease, according to the American Cancer Society.

"Therapeutic vaccines have been something of a holy grail in cancer. People have been trying to do this for, you know, over 100 years in one way or another," Jane Healy, head of oncology early development at Merck, said in an interview with Bloomberg several weeks ago. She noted that one potential benefit of the personalized shot would be to extend survival without significantly increasing side effects.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 07:40

Jeff Currie: Forget $91 Brent, The Real Crisis Is $170 Diesel

Zero Hedge -

Jeff Currie: Forget $91 Brent, The Real Crisis Is $170 Diesel

Brent at $90.94 looks almost civilized. Jeff Currie thinks that is exactly the problem: everyone is staring at crude while the real energy shock is already showing up in the fuels people actually buy.

As OilPrice reports, "Nobody on the planet earth consumes crude oil,” Currie told CNBC. Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look considerably uglier.

European diesel was trading around $170 per barrel during the interview, Currie said, almost twice Brent’s current $90.94. WTI was trading at $84.94 Tuesday.

Historically, crude and refined-product prices moved closely enough that crude served as a reasonable shorthand for the broader energy market. Currie says that relationship has broken down.

Part of the disconnect came from roughly 100 million to 120 million barrels of crude trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz following a surge in supplies in late June and early July. China then cut refinery runs, which helped keep crude prices softer but made product supplies tighter.

In other words, China did not solve the shortage. It moved it downstream.

Currie also argues governments have spent decades creating an “illusion of abundance” during supply disruptions by releasing strategic reserves and talking markets down. That strategy has worked before. This disruption, he said, is different because of its scale, duration, and the increasingly tight product market.

The inflation implications are considerably less academic. CNBC noted that gasoline prices are about 30% higher than a year ago, while diesel is up 46%. Diesel feeds directly into trucking, shipping and industrial costs.

Currie expects the crude-product dislocation to eventually correct as refiners chase historically high margins and increase runs.

Until then, $91 Brent may be giving investors a comforting picture of an oil market that consumers stopped living in weeks ago.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 06:55

10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

How Wall Street Sussed Out That Situational Awareness Was on the Ropes: From whispers of Anthropic stake sale to strange options moves, traders sensed trouble and swung into action. The Wall Street Journal’s exclusive on the detection — the prime broker signals, the counterparty chatter, and how the Street smelled the blow-up before the announcement. (Wall Street Journal)

• ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Lenders Pitch Loans for Needs Like Electricity and Rent: The New York Times on BNPL’s grim frontier — installment loans for utilities and rent, the clearest signal yet about household financial stress. (New York Timessee also Weak Retail-Sales Number Adds to Softening Economic Data: Retail sales fell 0.6% in July against an expected 0.1% increase; nonstore retailers were down 2.2%. Economists had expected a small increase in retail sales, but July brought surprisingly sour news (Wall Street Journal)

Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feet: Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech is a test of the Chair, and of the Fed’s credibility. Stay-At-Home Macro’s Jackson Hole preview — what the symposium can and can’t tell us about the Fed’s reaction function this year. (Stay-At-Home Macro)

“Vibe Chipping”, Vanishing Moats, & Future Semiconductors: The changes that AI is driving are truly breathtaking:”Cadence says its new AI agents can run hundreds of simulations simultaneously. This reduces a typical five-week verification cycle to less than a day.” (Paul Kedrosky)

• Inside Nvidia’s $500 Billion AI Debt Machine: A Credit Analysis: Who bears the risk in Nvidia’s $500 billion financing platform?  Sascha Steffen’s credit-risk breakdown of the Nvidia-centered financing web — the vendor financing, the circular deals, and the balance-sheet exposure if the capex cycle turns. (Sascha Steffen)

Tesla’s true believers are starting to question their faith in Elon Musk: As Musk turns his focus to other ventures such as SpaceX, some of his biggest backers are wondering whether his car company has become an afterthought. (Washington Post)

• The death of the stick shift is almost here:  Driving a manual vehicle is a lost art. Hopes of a revival have fallen flat. With the rise of EVs and autonomous vehicles, only a few die-hards are holding on. Todd C. Frankel on Alvaro Puig, who learned the clutch and three pedals in his father’s old manual BMWs in the early ’90s and got hooked on deciding when to shift.  (Washington Post)

• The Enshittification of Big Food: Why the food on your shelf keeps getting worse: Mike Lee traces the 1990 swap of beef tallow for partially hydrogenated vegetable oil in McDonald’s fryers. The trans fats proved more dangerous than the saturated fat they replaced, and by the late 1990s were blamed for roughly 50,000 premature American deaths a year.  (The Future Market)

• Her Brain Was Broken. It Was Fixed With Sound—Not a Scalpel: One woman’s meth addiction was so bad, the only option left might have been brain surgery. Then a single session of noninvasive, focused ultrasound seemed to do what years of treatment could not. Emily Mullin on Erin McNulty, missing for weeks and years into methamphetamine use, and the focused-ultrasound procedure that reached her without surgery. (Wired)

R.I.P. Columbia House: Here’s How It Improbably Survived This Long It wasn’t music streaming that killed it, because it pivoted. Gizmodo’s obituary for the 12-CDs-for-a-penny empire — the negative-option billing, the bankruptcies, and the zombie afterlife that finally ended. (Gizmodo)

Video of the day: The Ultimate Guide To Absolutely Everything In The Universe

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this past weekend with Dr. Ankur Crawford, EVP and Portfolio Manager at Alger. She heads the firm’s flagship Alger Capital Appreciation strategies. She was an Engineer at Intel, won the Intel Ph.D. Fellowship, and was awarded fellowship Natl Academy of Sciences, Engineering & Medicine, and holds several U.S. patents.  She was recognized as a “Top Women in Asset Management” in 2020 and serves on the board of The Knowledge House, a Bronx-based charity teaching technology skills to underserved communities.

 

Tariff Refunds Are Here—and Turbocharging Earnings

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

7 Federal Agencies & Big Pharma Quietly Built A Pandemic-Industrial Complex

Zero Hedge -

7 Federal Agencies & Big Pharma Quietly Built A Pandemic-Industrial Complex

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,

Nearly 14 years before COVID-19, HHS created the Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) and centralized federal health, biomedical, regulatory, homeland-security, and military functions around a government-directed countermeasure pipeline.

Creating what this website refers to as the Pandemic-Industrial Complex (PIC).

PHEMCE centralized seven named federal agencies and components (ASPR, CDC, FDA, NIH, DOD, DHS, and VA) across four Cabinet departments: HHS, DOD, DHS, and VA.

Private industry was explicitly inserted into that structure.

HHS named pharmaceutical manufacturers, biotechnology companies, clinical research organizations, and private research organizations.

Then it proposed increasing industry access to HHS agencies, streamlining regulation, lowering obstacles to private investment, and applying liability protections.

The government’s own documents show the same apparatus stretching from threat detection and intelligence assessments through research, product development, regulation, procurement, stockpiling, deployment, and use.

The national-security conflict is obvious.

What happens when the government institutions helping define an alleged biological threat are centralized with the institutions funding research around it, determining what product should be made, regulating that product, buying it, and organizing its deployment?

And what happens if research financed or overseen within the wider biodefense ecosystem contributes to producing the very threat that activates that apparatus?

Congress, the White House, the Department of Energy, the FBI, the CIA, and Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) all acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic was “likely” the result of a laboratory incident involving engineered pathogens.

HHS itself warned in 2006 that laboratory-engineered organisms:

“might even be mistaken as naturally occurring emerging agents.”

That warning makes the conflict much harder to dismiss.

DARPA’s PROPHECY, ADEPT, P3 and PREEMPT programs provide a concrete example of what this PHEMCE architecture looked like inside DOD: military programs moved from predicting alleged viral evolution to sequence-based pharmaceuticals, compressed countermeasure timelines and animal-virus surveillance, while DEFUSE proposed applying that machinery specifically to SARS-related bat coronaviruses.

HHS Creates PHEMCE & Orders Government & Industry to ‘Align & Synchronize’

HHS’s September 8, 2006, draft PHEMCE Strategy states:

“HHS created the Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) in July 2006... The PHEMCE is a coordinated interagency effort led by HHS and charged with the responsibility to: (1) Define and prioritize requirements for public health medical emergency countermeasures; (2) coordinate research, early- and advanced product development and procurement activities to address the requirements; and (3) set deployment and use strategies for medical countermeasures held in the Strategic National Stockpile.”

HHS then defined the reach of the apparatus:

“The PHEMCE Strategy defines the principles and objectives that will guide our Implementation Plan for the entire PHEMCE-surveillance/detection of threats; research, development, acquisition, storage/maintenance, deployment and utilization of medical countermeasures.”

The government justified this concentration by citing alleged CBRN and biological threats, then demanded:

“unprecedented cooperation among all levels of Government, private industry, academia, international partners and the public.”

And under HHS leadership:

“we must align and synchronize efforts on the part of all key stakeholders involved in the PHEMCE.”

HHS also explicitly inserted private industry into the product-development system:

“Private research organizations, pharmaceutical manufacturers, biotechnology companies, and clinical research organizations already have many of the resources and the expertise needed to develop MCM but have been reluctant to make substantial investments in research and development because of market uncertainties.”

Then:

“HHS will work to streamline the regulatory process for medical countermeasures. HHS will facilitate private investment of time, energy and resources in MCM development by removing or lowering obstacles whenever appropriate, including the application of liability protections where appropriate.”

And one passage reveals what HHS itself counted as a “benefit”:

“As with the definition of costs, benefits also go beyond the simple definition of ‘curing disease’ and include concepts such as overall lifecycle of the medical countermeasure including storage, utilization and deployment.”

That is the conflict in plain language.

PHEMCE was not organized solely around whether a product cured disease.

HHS explicitly counted the product’s storage, utilization, and deployment as part of its “benefit.”

The 2007 Plan Turns PHEMCE Into an ‘End-to-End’ Threat-to-Product Pipeline

The April 2007 implementation plan described the centralized structure this way:

“The HHS Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) has taken a holistic, end-to-end approach that considers multiple aspects of the medical countermeasures mission including research, development, acquisition, storage, maintenance, deployment, and guidance for utilization.”

It then names the agencies:

“HHS PHEMCE is a coordinated, intra-agency effort led by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) and includes three HHS internal agencies: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Additionally, HHS PHEMCE collaborates with its ex officio members: the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and other interagency stakeholders as appropriate.”

The plan then lays out the threat-to-product sequence.

HHS said medical-countermeasure requirements would incorporate:

“subject matter expert evaluations, domestic and international intelligence information”

and immediately moved to:

“Identify and prioritize near-, mid-, and long-term development and acquisition programs”

for products potentially covering:

“the entire U.S. population.”

Government procurement could then be sized to:

“drive industrial development of the medical countermeasure.”

NIH was ordered to align its research with PHEMCE priorities:

“NIH will align research and development efforts with the PHEMCE priority medical countermeasure programs.”

And HHS wanted:

“a sustainable, continuous stream of promising medical countermeasures in the pipeline that are aligned with top priority HHS PHEMCE requirements for future acquisitions”

The same plan sought technologies permitting:

“rapid identification and characterization of novel threat agents”

followed by:

“rapid production of new vaccines.”

That is the architecture.

Threat designation → intelligence → product requirement → research → industrial development → acquisition → deployment.

Bottom Line

The two HHS documents confirm PHEMCE centralized seven named federal agencies and components across four Cabinet departments while explicitly inserting pharmaceutical and biotechnology interests into the same government-directed countermeasure structure.

HHS ordered participants to “align and synchronize,” proposed streamlined regulation, lower barriers and liability protections for private developers, contemplated government financing through clinical trials, and said government purchases could “drive industrial development.”

NIH was ordered to maintain a “sustainable, continuous stream” of products aligned with “future acquisitions.”

And HHS itself acknowledged that laboratory-engineered organisms could be “mistaken as naturally occurring emerging agents.”

In all, the documents reveal the central conflict of the Pandemic-Industrial Complex: the same broader government system can help define an alleged biological threat, finance research around it, determine the product requirements, integrate private industry, influence regulation, create the market through procurement, purchase the resulting products and organize their deployment.

That conflict is no longer merely hypothetical.

A laboratory incident involving coronavirus research is itself a mainstream hypothesis under consideration for the origin of COVID-19.

If COVID-19 resulted from research connected to the same wider U.S.-funded biodefense and pandemic-preparedness ecosystem represented inside this apparatus, the implications would extend far beyond public health: a government-connected research ecosystem could be implicated in causing an international biological catastrophe while interconnected institutions within that wider system possessed roles in assessing its origin, controlling relevant information and intelligence, and directing the resulting countermeasure response.

Who independently investigates the system when the system itself may be implicated?

And if a government-connected research ecosystem can potentially contribute to producing the biological catastrophe, while the wider apparatus can then define the threat, finance the response, create the product requirements, “drive industrial development” and organize deployment, does the resulting emergency expose the system—or give that same system more money, authority, and power?

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 06:30

Saudis Offer To Sell Oil Near Oman, A Sign They're Sailing Dark Through Hormuz

Zero Hedge -

Saudis Offer To Sell Oil Near Oman, A Sign They're Sailing Dark Through Hormuz

Saudi Arabia spent weeks finding ways around the Strait of Hormuz. Now it is starting to send tankers straight back through it.

According to OilPrice.com, Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings from its Ras Tanura and Juaymah terminals inside the strait last week, ending a three-week gap in activity at the ports, according to Kpler and Vortexa data cited by Reuters.

Three VLCCs -- Malaysia Prosperity, Algeria Prosperity and Singapore Prosperity -- each loaded roughly 2 million barrels between August 12 and August 16. Six more VLCCs could load Saudi crude from inside Hormuz later this month, provisional Kpler data showed.

The next round may involve Saudi Arabia’s own ships. According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia is offering to sell oil from off the coast of Oman, a sign that the kingdom may be following the United Arab Emirates in shuttling more barrels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Aramco is offering cargoes on a so-called ship-to-ship basis from locations including Sohar in the Gulf of Oman. The grades being marketed are Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, something that means it’s highly likely the barrels came from inside the Persian Gulf.

For now, the offers are only being made to some Chinese refiners, Bloomberg sources said. Many of the nation’s processors prefer the heavier and relatively sulfur-rich grades produced by Aramco, which are more suited to their complex refineries.

Middle Eastern producers have been pressing ahead with shuttling large volumes of crude out of the Persian Gulf, helping keep a lid on oil prices and assuaging fears of an energy-driven inflation spike. Aramco’s trading arm shuttled some supplies through Hormuz in May, but the kingdom’s ability to divert exports to its Red Sea port of Yanbu made it less reliant on the waterway.

Over the past several weeks, even those diverted Red Sea flows have come under threat after Yemen’s Houthi militants declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia.

There have been recent signs of a pickup in cargo activity from Saudi Arabia’s facilities inside the Persian Gulf. According to satellite imagery, vessels with at least 9 million barrels of transport capacity have loaded at or near the country’s giant Ras Tanura export installations over the past week.

Saudi Arabia has also amassed a large cluster of oil supertankers just outside of the gulf. Seven VLCCs operated by Saudi-based Bahri were sitting off the UAE and Oman on Tuesday, while another two were heading toward Fujairah, according to LSEG shipping data. Traders told Reuters that Aramco could use Saudi-controlled tankers for future Hormuz transits in addition to vessels operated by South Korea’s Sinokor.

That is a notable shift after Aramco halted sales from inside the strait for weeks following attacks on its tanker fleet during last month’s escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. 

It does not mean Saudi exports are back to normal.

Aramco is still offering Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah, allowing buyers to collect Saudi barrels without sending their own vessels through Hormuz.

Its other escape route has problems of its own. Saudi Arabia diverted exports toward Yanbu on the Red Sea earlier in the war, only to face a Houthi blockade there. Aramco has since offered crude from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal, but only about 670,000 barrels per day is expected to load there for Asia this month, versus roughly 4 million bpd previously exported through Yanbu.

Longer voyages and higher freight costs have made that workaround a tough sell.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 05:45

Sovereign Debt Crisis: The French Left Wants To Simply Burn The Debt

Zero Hedge -

Sovereign Debt Crisis: The French Left Wants To Simply Burn The Debt

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

For economic illiterates, socialists and social-state engineers, the world consists of one fundamental problem: Where does the credit come from that is supposed to turn the visions of central planners into a new reality? Once that question has been answered and the shaky financing is in place, the work can begin.

Ideally, socialists operate in a zero-interest-rate world in which even the most nonsensical projects, from the nuclear phase-out to the construction of wind turbines in forests, debt-financed arms deliveries to the Donbas, or even billion-dollar subsidies for the NGO industry, can be financed.

It is magical: The costs of this artificial credit, this nonsensical government demand, which ultimately has to be paid for through inflation and higher taxes, are concealed behind massive state propaganda and a delayed fiscal response. Cause and effect of government demand are thus separated from one another. Citizens find it difficult to understand why their economy is no longer growing while the state apparatus, meanwhile, is assuming Kafkaesque features.

In an interview with Les Nouveaux Médias, French socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon revealed his political secret for overcoming the debt crisis. His recipe is socialist, simple and one-dimensional. The French government should simply continue piling up debt, without any controls whatsoever. The European Central Bank could then serve as a kind of bond landfill and purchase surplus securities from the market once saturation has been reached.

This is followed by the unsubtle and predictable trick: The bonds thus neutralized could simply be burned on the balance sheet. They would virtually disappear from the memory of politicians, the public and the bond market. The debt ratio falls as well – the perfect digital money printer, a socialist paradise of unlimited possibilities.

Why has nobody thought of this before? Because the fact is: Which politician has any interest in public controversy and in recognizing that our world does not have unlimited resources, that a genuine problem of distribution exists? The credit pump could solve all problems in this simple world. Nobody would have to give anything up; prosperity would simply be printed into existence. That is how simple it is.

But haven’t we already reached this state long ago? In essence, the European Central Bank has been pursuing precisely such an infantile policy of illusion since the great sovereign debt crisis of a decade and a half ago. And now, once again, the new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) stands ready as a vehicle that, if necessary, is supposed to allow bond purchases without a pre-defined quantitative ceiling. Should the bond market give the thumbs-down to the mountain of debt accumulated by Europe’s club of debtors, the deficits will be closed with the credit pump.

Central-bank policy always creates the impression of extreme complexity and absolute control over market events. Bond markets are quantitatively deep, particularly at the so-called long end, the longer maturities of government bonds. It is by no means the case that a central bank could control this market even remotely. Its power unfolds at the short end, which is consequently where market manipulation is concentrated.

Mélenchon then presents his second brilliant idea: common bonds issued by the European Commission and likewise stabilized by the European Central Bank within a specific interest-rate corridor. Germany’s creditworthiness, still the anchor of the EU’s entire debt system, could also have a beneficial effect on interest rates in France, which is over-indebted at around 120 percent.

Mélenchon reveals staggering economic incompetence in an interview. Here is another sample:

Ultimately, according to his conception, this amounts to a triangular transaction: France participates in the Eurosystem through the Banque de France and is therefore indirectly involved in the European Central Bank. If the ECB purchases French government bonds, Mélenchon argues, this amounts to a kind of purchase of its own debt. France would ultimately owe itself credit and could therefore cancel these liabilities itself, provided the bonds were first parked at the ECB.

Only socialists or statists can devise such economic nonsense: borrowing without limits, then simply wiping the mountain of debt out of existence and leaving the people to deal with the inflation created in the process. This is a catastrophic breach of trust and the end of any civilized policy of government.

And consider what kind of policies are being implemented with the state credit pump: from financing the conflict in Ukraine and climate policy to the never-ending mass migration into the welfare state, which, like the pension system, must also be kept liquid with ever-increasing amounts of borrowed money.

Credit as a great political illusion. Credit that relieves the growing pressure for reform from narrow political shoulders in order to stabilize a system that has long since exceeded its economic limits.

Mélenchon is looking at new borrowing of 5.7 percent this year and knows exactly what is happening: The political stalemate in Paris prevents any form of fiscal consolidation.

The political camps are marching hand in hand toward sovereign bankruptcy. And German politics, too, apparently knows what is coming: Eurobonds, a consolidation of debt under the umbrella of the European Commission.

The first major test run: Next Generation EU, the €750 billion common-bond project that Brussels placed on the market during the COVID lockdowns – with German liability and ECB liquidity support, primarily to finance the gigantic deficits of Italy and Spain.

Common debt, known as Eurobonds, will be the inevitable next step in European integration. There can be little doubt about that. The construction of a European military sector alone will consume enormous amounts of resources, just as we have seen with the green command economy. This process is forcing German policymakers to waste seven percent of GDP on subsidies. The state is crowding out the private sector, while its bureaucracy consumes an ever-larger share of the slowly shrinking economic pie year after year: As a result, unemployment rises while private-sector investment is crowded out. The state has no other way to cope than through massive tax increases.

We are watching a financial crash in slow motion. Its final chapter will bring us the usual bailout policies, capital controls and financial repression. Thankfully, Mélenchon has given us some insight into the political mind games – and they are deeply alarming.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 05:00

The Super El Niño To Beat All Others?

Zero Hedge -

The Super El Niño To Beat All Others?

The World Meteorological Organization predicts the sea surface temperature anomaly in the El Niño/La Niña indicator area in the Pacific Ocean to rise to an average of +2.9° Celsius in the August-September-October period.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, this would constitute the strongest El Niño since records started in 1950 and could lead to wet and stormy conditions across the entire southern part of the United States starting in the late fall. It could also mean more snowfall in regions that receive precipitation this way. In the Pacific Northwest, the El Niño phenomenon is conversely expected to lead to a dry winter. 

 The Super El Niño to Beat All Others? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

On a global scale, El Niño could cause very dry conditions in the Amazonwhich experts fear is reaching a tipping point, droughts in vulnerable regions of Africa and more excess rainfall in parts of South America, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa.

There have been three episodes of very strong average El Niño temperature anomalies of +2° Celsius or more recorded since 1950 – in 1982 at +2.1° C between November and February, in 1997 at +2.4° C from November to January and in 2015 at +2.6° C, also for the November to January period.

This shows that this year's so-called Super El Niño is not only potentially stronger, but also starts earlier.

The WMO additionally said its expects ocean temps to rise further and to peak in November. For La Niña, episodes classified as strong (-1.5° C to -1.9° C) happened in 1973, 1988, 1999, 2000, 2008 and 2010.

During the last Super El Niño in 2015, the United States experienced a record cyclone season in the central Pacific (where Hawaii is located) and a 500-year drought in the Caribbean (including in Puerto Rico), while around the world, 2015 became the hottest year on record at the time and saw a devastating drought in Ethiopia and record-breaking wildfires in Indonesia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 04:15

The Case For Britain Backing Its North Sea Oil & Gas Industry

Zero Hedge -

The Case For Britain Backing Its North Sea Oil & Gas Industry

Authored by David Whitehouse, chief executive of Offshore Energies UK, via City AM,

  • Jackdaw and Rosebank could strengthen UK energy security by increasing domestic oil and gas production while demand remains substantial.

  • The projects are expected to support billions of pounds of investment, thousands of jobs, and a broad UK offshore supply chain.

  • Continued North Sea production could reduce import dependence while preserving engineering skills and industrial capacity needed for offshore wind, hydrogen, and carbon capture.

Britain faces a simple choice. While we still need oil and gas, do we produce more of it here, supporting jobs, investment, energy security and lower production emissions, or do we import more from overseas, which costs more and involves higher emissions? That is the real question facing ministers as they consider Jackdaw and Rosebank.

With extreme weather becoming ever more visible, the need to tackle climate change is beyond doubt. The UK must scale up renewable and low-carbon energy, but people deserve honesty. Even on our path to net zero, Britain will need oil and gas for years to come.

Oil and gas still meet around 75 per cent of current UK energy needs, which is why the decisions facing ministers on Jackdaw and Rosebank are so important.

Jackdaw could provide more than six per cent of UK gas supply by this winter, equivalent to the gas needed to heat around 1.4m homes. Rosebank is another major opportunity to strengthen domestic production while demand remains.

The public consultation on Jackdaw and Rosebank has now closed.

The economic prize is significant. More than £3bn has already been invested in these projects, with total anticipated investment reaching £10.8bn. Over their producing lives, they could contribute £28.7bn to the UK economy and generate £1.4bn in tax revenues before the end of this Parliament.

For readers, this is not an abstract debate. It is about capital allocation, supply chains and whether the UK remains a credible place to invest.

More than 170 UK supply chain companies are already involved. Jackdaw and Rosebank together will support around 3,500 jobs at peak construction, around 880 long-term jobs during production and 125 apprenticeships. Those skills are not yesterday’s economy. They are the same engineering and technical capabilities needed for tomorrow’s energy system.

Industrial strategy

Some argue the fastest route to net zero is to stop new domestic oil and gas production, but if UK production falls faster than demand, Britain will not stop using oil and gas. It will import more. In the process, we hollow out our industrial strength, skilled workforce and supply chains needed to build our energy future.

Production emissions from Jackdaw and Rosebank could be around eight times lower than imported liquefied natural gas. Importing more energy means exporting jobs, investment and emissions accountability.

Approving Jackdaw and Rosebank would not solve every challenge facing the North Sea, but it would send an important signal. There is a £50bn pipeline of potential oil and gas investment that could be unlocked over the coming decade.

That means jobs, tax revenues and energy security. It also means sustaining the supply chain companies Britain will rely on for offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture and the wider low-carbon economy.

If the government wants a serious industrial strategy that supports growth, it should back the North Sea during the transition. The alternative is higher import dependence, weaker domestic capability and less influence over the emissions linked to the energy we consume.

The UK should be ambitious about renewables. It should also be practical about the energy system we have today. Backing North Sea oil and gas production while demand remains is not a retreat from net zero. It is a responsible way to get there.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 03:30

Germany Opens New Drone Security Center Amid Fears Of Russian Hybrid Warfare

Zero Hedge -

Germany Opens New Drone Security Center Amid Fears Of Russian Hybrid Warfare

European officials have for years been warning about what they allege is heightened Russian hybrid and sabotage warfare targeting Europe and its airspace in connection with the long-running Ukraine war.

They've been further sounding the alarm in the wake of this month's drone incident near a runway at Leipzig Airport. Reports say a drone carrying explosives was found at this location, which remains one of Europe's largest cargo hubs, and is also used for NATO logistics.

An optical tracking system for drones and small aerial objects, via dpa

A NATO spokesperson later specified with the explosive-laden drone, which was equipped with a detonator, appeared to have been targeting an aircraft belonging to the Ukrainian cargo carrier Antonov Airlines.

This close call incident came in the wake of a series of mystery drone incidents which in some cases paused operations at commercial aviation hubs in northern Europe. While some episodes could have been the result of hobby drones or else local pranks or false alarms, EU officials have still long suspected Russian-linked nefarious actors.

Now Germany in particular is stepping up anti-drone security and monitoring measures, by establishing its first major drone security research center.

The new Drone Security Technology Center is part of the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), and officially opened Tuesday in the town of Cochsted, which is famous for its aviation history. The center will focus on research and technology for detecting hostile or unknown drone activity, protecting critical infrastructure from such incursions.

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced, "Together with the DLR we are creating, with the new technology center, a facility that is unique nationwide, where innovative technologies for drone security are researched, developed and tested in real-life laboratories."

He described the new drone threat facing Germany and Europe more broadly as part of the "shadow war of the 21st century".

"Within the growing network of future test-field activities, the National Test Centre plays an integrative role as a trailblazer for future research and development of new UAS technologies within the DLR and for external partners," the center's website states.

The facility will further provide rare opportunity for drones and counter-drone technology to be tested in 'real-world conditions' and in multiple scenarios and settings, officials have described.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 02:45

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