Solid 7Y Auction Prices "On The Screws" With Solid Foreign Demand

Today's lone coupon auction, the sale of $16BN in 20Y notes, took place at 1pm, just an hour ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, and the auction was generally very strong, with maybe a one glitch. 

The sale stopped at a high yield of 5.122%, up from 4.883% in April, and the second highest in the history of the 20Y auction with just the 5.257% in October '23 printing higher. The yield stopped on the screws with the When Issued 5.122%, and followed two stopping through auctions, and 11 of the past 12). 

The bid to cover was 2.55, down from 2.68 in April and arguably the only weak spot in today's auction, as it was the lowest since February. 

The internals were solid, with Indirects awarded 67.67%, up from 67.39% and the 63.5% recent average. And with Directs taking 22.9%, unchanged from the previous month, Dealers were left with 9.4%, down from 9.7% and one of the lowest Dealer awards on record.

Overall, this was a solid 7Y auction and one which had no problem finding buyers despite, or perhaps because of the recent surge in yields which today has reversed modestly thanks to lower oil prices.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:20

Trump Admin Announces Criminal Charges Against Former Cuba President Raul Castro

Update (1300ET): As we wrote earlier in anticipation, the US sought to unseal an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro, sharply escalating a standoff with Havana as the Trump administration attempts to force change on the island after nearly seven decades of communist rule.

The charges are related to the shooting of two humanitarian planes in 1996.

The Department of Justice asked to unseal the indictment against Castro and five other people in a filing in federal court in Florida on Wednesday.

The indictment charges Castro with seven counts including conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, destruction of aircraft and murder for each of the four passengers aboard the planes being flown by Brothers to the Rescue, a group that conducted rescue missions for Cuban exiles who sought to flee the country.

For 30 years, Cuban exiles in America and their representatives in Congress such Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., pressured the DOJ to bring charges against the 94-year-old Ruz, his late brother Fidel, and others in connection with the Cuban MiG fighter jets shooting down the BTTR civilian planes when they were outside Cuban airspace and flying back toward Florida.

A number of Republican members of Congress on Wednesday morning held a press conference condemning the Communist Cuban regime and Ruz and saying they expected him to be charged. The indictment against Ruz was unsealed later in the day.

*  *  *

As American Greatness detailed earlier, the Trump administration is preparing to escalate pressure on Cuba’s communist regime by pursuing criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft operated by a Miami-based exile group.

According to reports, the charges are expected to be announced Wednesday and would center on the incident in which Cuban fighter jets destroyed two planes flown by Brothers to the Rescue, killing all four men aboard.

The US Department of Justice is expected to make the announcement in conjunction with a ceremony hosted by the US Attorney’s Office in Miami honoring the victims of the attack.

The indictment would mark a major escalation in President Donald Trump’s campaign against the Cuban regime, which has remained in power since Fidel Castro’s communist revolution in 1959.

Raúl Castro, now 94, served as Cuba’s defense minister at the time of the attack and later succeeded his brother, Fidel Castro, as president.

The two planes belonged to Brothers to the Rescue, an organization formed by Cuban exiles in Miami that searched for refugees attempting to flee the island across the Florida Straits. Cuban authorities claimed the aircraft violated Cuban airspace and justified the attack as a defensive action.

The United States condemned the shootdown at the time and imposed sanctions on Havana, but previous administrations stopped short of criminally charging either Castro brother.

An international aviation investigation later concluded the planes were destroyed over international waters.

The expected indictment comes as the Trump administration intensifies its pressure campaign against Cuba’s socialist government. The administration has tightened sanctions and threatened penalties against countries supplying fuel to the island, worsening economic conditions and contributing to severe power shortages across Cuba.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez recently struck a defiant tone amid growing tensions with Washington.

“Despite the embargo, sanctions and threats of the use of force, Cuba continues on a path of sovereignty towards its socialist development,” Rodríguez said earlier this month.

The administration’s expected legal action against Castro mirrors previous moves against other anti-American socialist regimes in Latin America. Earlier this year, former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was captured following a US military raid after being indicted on drug trafficking charges.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:11

Commercial Electricity Use Will Surpass Residential In 2027, As Price Surge Set To Continue: EIA

By Robert Wilson of UtilityDive

Commercial electricity consumption is likely to surpass residential use for the first time on record in 2027, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The commercial sector, which includes hyperscalers, bitcoin miners and cloud computing, is expected to see electricity sales grow 2.2% to about 1,530 billion kWh in 2026 — roughly the same as the residential sector — followed by 5.3% growth the following year, EIA said.

Demand from the residential sector, which has historically accounted for the largest share of U.S. electricity use, will remain largely flat over the next two years, growing about 0.5% in 2026 and 2027. Total U.S. electricity consumption in 2026 will be almost 4,250 billion kWh, up 1.3% from 2025, and is expected to grow 3.1% in 2027.

Meanwhile, U.S. residential electricity prices will continue to rise amid growing demand, particularly from the commercial sector, which includes data centers, the EIA said.

Residential customers will pay an average of 18.2 cents/kWh this year, “a nearly 5% increase from 2025, which is similar to the increase in U.S. prices between 2024 and 2025,” EIA estimated. “We expect residential prices to grow at a slightly lower rate of 2% next year.”

“Residential prices have been growing in all regions of the United States, and we expect this trend to continue,” EIA said. Areas along the East coast will experience the largest increases in residential prices, with average annual growth as high as 7% for the next two years.

“Electric utilities in these regions are citing various factors for rising electricity rates, including higher fuel prices for generation and expenses for bolstering the transmission grid against extreme weather and to accommodate rising power demand,” the short-term outlook said.

Industrial sales, the smallest of the three segments, are also rising, according to EIA. “We forecast industrial electricity consumption will grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 to reach a total of 1,095 [billion] kWh next year,” the monthly report said. “Increases in electricity demand for both the commercial and industrial sectors is strongest in the West South Central region, driven by data center and manufacturing growth in Texas.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:00

FOMC Minutes Preview: Look For "Easing Bias" Dissent Details Inside Powell's Hawkish Swan Song

Today's FOMC minutes, released at 2pm ET, will be closely watched for further details surrounding the increasingly hawkish split within the Committee following the April meeting, Jerome Powell's last as Fed Chair. With three voters dissenting against retaining the easing bias - and Fedʼs Collins later suggesting she would have supported removing it too - markets will look to see how broad support was for removing the easing bias, particularly after Powell said more officials now view a hike just as likely as a cut, according to Newsquawk.

Discussions around inflation risks and the labor market will also be in focus given the current macro backdrop, with the jobs market viewed as stable while inflation remains above target and faces upside risks from the Middle East conflict. Traders will also watch for any early signs of debate surrounding future balance sheet policy with Warsh set to take over as Chair from Powell. 

The April FOMC statement and vote split leaned hawkish. While outgoing Governor Miranʼs dissent in favor of a 25bps rate cut was widely expected, three voting members (plotted below) dissented against retaining the easing bias in the statement (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan).

As a reminder:

• Hammack said the easing bias was no longer appropriate given broad-based inflation pressures, higher energy prices, resilient growth and a labour market near full employment.
• Kashkari said he wanted to signal growing rate hike risks, warning that a large price shock could unanchor inflation expectations and require tighter policy to defend the Fedʼs 2% target.
• Logan dissented because she believed the Fed should not imply easing given uncertainty around the outlook, stable employment and concern about getting inflation back to 2%.

Elsewhere, the statement shifted inflation language, replacing “somewhat elevated” with “elevated”, while also attributing the move to higher global energy prices. On the Middle East, the Fed dropped the prior “uncertain implications” wording, instead stating directly that developments are “contributing to a high level of uncertainty”. Growth and labor market language was otherwise largely unchanged, with activity continuing to expand at a “solid pace” and unemployment “little changed”. 

However, given energy prices have continued to rise in the wake of the meeting, and money markets are no longer pricing rate cuts this year (with markets currently discounting roughly a 60% probability of a hike by year-end), traders will look for evidence of how widespread inflation concerns were within the Committee and what conditions could push the Fed towards hikes. That said, the minutes reflect discussions held at the time of the meeting, meaning the recent hot CPI and PPI reports will not yet be incorporated. 

Powell said policy remains in a “good place” to wait and see, but acknowledged the Committee is moving closer to dropping its easing bias, with more officials now viewing hikes just as likely as cuts. While he stressed no one is actively calling for hikes at present, analysts noted that the threshold for future easing has risen, with the Fed wanting more confidence around tariffs and energy prices before considering cuts. Powell also warned that core inflation risks are “real”. He added that, beyond the three official dissenters, several non-voters also favored removing the easing bias but ultimately supported the decision to hold rates.

That dynamic may create challenges for incoming Chair Warsh, whose first meeting will be in June. While Warsh has advocated lower rates, he may find limited support for a more dovish stance within the current Committee. Bowman and Waller remain among the more dovish officials, though neither has backed immediate easing in the way Miran did. Note, the latest reports suggest Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chair this Friday at a White House event. 

Additionally, Warsh has advocated for a tighter balance sheet policy. Last week, Fed Governor Barr argued that easing bank liquidity requirements to shrink the Fedʼs balance sheet would undermine financial stability and increase the Fedʼs market footprint. Barr said the 2023 banking stresses suggest liquidity requirements should rise, not fall. As such, traders will also watch the minutes for any discussion surrounding future balance sheet strategy alongside the debate over the easing bias.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 12:45

StanChart CEO Scrambles Into Damage Control After "Lower-Value Human Capital" Comment Triggers Backlash

Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters and his team spent Wednesday in damage-control mode after the head of the London-based international bank told investors on Tuesday that artificial intelligence would be used to replace "lower-value human capital," sparking a backlash online.

"Many of you will have seen media coverage following the Investor Event in Hong Kong, particularly the reporting around automation, AI, and workforce changes," Winters wrote in an internal memo to employees on Wednesday that was seen by Bloomberg.

He continued, "I know this may be unsettling when reduced to simple headlines or a quote out of context."

The outrage stems from STAN's Tuesday announcement to cut 15% of its corporate roles (about 7,800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

During the investor event, Winters said, "It's not cost-cutting, it's replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." The substitution of workers in favor of machines "will accelerate as we go forward into AI."

Bloomberg noted that Winters' memo sent to workers earlier today "adopted a more empathetic tone, emphasizing the bank's commitment to supporting its workforce during the transition."

That memo read, "We will continue to invest in technology, platforms, and automation to improve how we operate, serve clients and position the Bank for long-term growth. I want to be absolutely clear that the future of Standard Chartered depends on the talent, judgment, relationships, and commitment of you, our colleagues."

“It’s not cost cutting; it’s replacing in some cases lower-value human capital”

Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters delivered a blunt message on the future of the bank’s workforce. @aishagani explains the growing trend among finance leaders acknowledging the realities of AI… pic.twitter.com/j55u4uPdZR

— Bloomberg (@business) May 19, 2026

Socialists were not thrilled with Winters' "lower-value human capital" comment:

"Angry? You should be! This is how the employer described its staff: "lower-value human capital."

Angry? You should be! This is how this employer described its staff “lower-value human capital”.

“Standard Chartered bank could cut more than 7,500 jobs as it seeks to replace "lower-value human capital" under a technology and artificial intelligence (AI) drive”.…

— Socialist Labour Party (@soclp_uk) May 20, 2026

Beyond StanChart, corporate America is losing engineers and other white-collar workers who are burdened by insurmountable student and credit card debt as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered as the great "white-collar purge," and the response may be continued backlash toward data centers.

Earlier today, Meta began cutting 8,000 jobs, while leaked audio of CEO Mark Zuckerberg described how AI is monitoring high-skilled employees. According to X user Official Layoff, who leaked the audio: "AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 12:25

Three Supertankers Carrying 6 Million Barrels Exit Strait Of Hormuz

Three commercial supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Middle East crude oil have successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.

The vessels departed the strategic waterway on Wednesday, after being stranded inside the Persian Gulf for over two months, lending hope to an end to the closure of the strait.

The crude cargoes were split evenly among three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) heading to Asian refining hubs. The first was Universal Winner, a South Korean-flagged supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude oil. Shipping data on LSEG and Kpler showed that the vessel is currently en route to Ulsan, South Korea, to discharge at an SK Energy facility by June 9.

The second VLCC was Yuan Gui Yang, a Chinese-flagged vessel hauling 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude. Chartered by Unipec (the trading arm of Sinopec), the supertanker is heading toward Guangdong province with an expected arrival on June 4.

Finally there was Ocean Lily, a Hong Kong-flagged tanker loaded with 2 million barrels split evenly between Qatari al-Shaheen and Iraqi Basrah crude. Owned by Sinochem, the vessel is tracking toward Fujian province for a June 5 arrival.

Combined, the trio have about 6 million barrels of crude on board — one of the biggest oil flows in a single 24 hour period in over a month.

All three vessels switched off their digital transponders before exiting. Two have since transited the strait and were sighted near Oman while the status of the third is unclear. It also remains to be seen if they all can get past a seaparte US blockade. The supertanker heading to South Korea, the Universal Winner, is the first observed sailing by a VLCC to the Asian country since the war began.

Iran's state TV underscored that the country now appears to be in sole control over who crosses the strait and who doesn't. “Today other countries like South Korea, taking their example from the Chinese, coordinated with the IRGC navy and arranged the passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz,” the TV correspondent says in report from near the strait. “Coordination increased today and it’s expected to increase further tomorrow”

The correspondent said he witnessed five oil supertankers passing the strait with IRGC coordination, without giving further details

Meanwhile, following the footsteps of China and South Korea, India is preparing to send its own vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to load up energy cargoes from suppliers in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported; it would be the first time since the Iran conflict began that the country will do so.

State-owned Shipping Corp. of India is ready to go back to the Persian Gulf once it has approval from the Indian Navy and it has business from oil refiners, one of the people said. 

Shipping through Hormuz, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has been virtually halted since the Iran war began at the end of February, causing major disruptions and price shocks for countries like India, the world’s third-largest crude importer. It’s unclear whether Iran or the US, which are separately blockading the strait and surrounding waters amid the war, have given India a green light to send ships through the waterway. Their agreement will be critical for the plan to work. 

India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in New Delhi on the sidelines of a BRICS summit last week.

Recent White House briefings indicated potential progress toward an agreement to de-escalate hostilities, giving energy markets hope for a more permanent reopening of the chokepoint. Details on permanent enforcement or full reopening conditions remain sparse despite reports of Washington and Tehran having allegedly engaged in productive conversations via mediators, often with contradictory statements.

Few ships have so far managed to break through the Strait of Hormuz, with regional oil exports currently well below pre-war baselines.

Energy analysts emphasize that even if the conflict ends immediately, a backlog of structural damages and shuttered upstream infrastructure means market normalization will likely take three to four months and high oil prices are likely to persist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 11:45

The AI Economy, Part 1: Looking Beyond The Facade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The US economy’s curb appeal looks great. Consider that gasoline prices are nearly $5, crude oil is trading above $100, consumer sentiment is at historically low levels, and mortgage and other interest rates have remained relatively high. Yet, despite the worrisome headwinds, the US consumer-driven economy continues to expand. However, as with a house’s curb appeal, it’s not just the headline data that defines an economy. Equally important is its supporting structure. Let’s open the door to our economy to better appreciate how AI is currently impacting it and how it may change in the future.  

The question we explore here is whether the AI investment boom is genuinely broadening this country’s economic footing or weakening the labor force, the foundation of the economy.

We separate the article into two parts. Part one is the optimistic case: an AI-induced, productivity-led economic boom in which the benefits spread quickly to society.  Part Two will address a more bearish outlook: the possibility of a large gap in the distribution of AI’s productivity benefits, accruing to corporations much more quickly than to employees.  

AI Spending Drives GDP

The amount of capital flowing into AI infrastructure development and thus GDP is enormous. As shown in the graph below, the capital expenditures (Capex) of just four companies, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, are now over $700 billion annually, roughly 7x what they were five years ago. Based on the 2026 Capex expectations, a third of GDP growth could come from the four companies.

The AI buildout extends well beyond the four balance sheets noted above. Every dollar of Capex spent by the large hyperscalers creates demand across a wide supply chain. For example, construction firms are building data center campuses the size of small cities, utility companies are scrambling to add generation capacity, domestic semiconductor producers are ramping up output, and fiber optic and networking suppliers have multi-year order backlogs. The electrical grid is facing its first sustained demand growth in two decades, driven almost entirely by data center power requirements, which are projected to more than double by 2030.

Historical Context

The scale of today’s AI buildout has historical precedent. For instance, the railroad expansion of the mid-1800s involved more extreme infrastructure investment, with railway Capex estimated to have consumed as much as 10-20% of GDP at its peak. A more recent and appropriate comparison is the telecom buildout of the late 1990s, when Capex peaked at roughly 1.0-1.2% of US GDP. Today’s AI infrastructure spending by just the four companies has recently surpassed that telecom figure.

But unlike the debt-fueled telecom boom, today’s AI spending has thus far been funded almost entirely by the cash and cash flows of extremely profitable corporations. While the composition of funding is shifting from cash and free cash flow to debt, the companies noted above have debt-to-equity ratios well below the S&P 500 average and significantly lower than during the telecom buildout. Moreover, earnings from other highly profitable business lines will continue to provide them with substantial cash for investment.

The Consumer Is Resilient But Running Thin

While AI spending is tremendous and boosting the economy, some argue that it is masking weaknesses in consumer spending, which is the most important contributor to economic growth.  The graph below shows that consumer spending accounts for about 67% of GDP, as it has since 2001. There has been no discernible change over the last few years since the advent of AI.

While the recent contribution of consumer spending has not changed meaningfully, its sustainability is a key factor driving future growth. While consumption is holding, there are signs that the means to spend are deteriorating. For instance, the personal savings rate has fallen to near its lowest level since 1960, as shown below. This suggests that a growing share of personal consumption is being funded by drawing down savings rather than by current earnings.

Such behavior is not unusual during periods of strong employment, as consumers spend more when they are confident about their job and wage prospects. That said, a low savings rate is a yellow flag, but it has coexisted with healthy economic expansions before.

The more important gauge of future consumption is wages, which leads us to the labor market

A Churning Labor Market

AI will swallow up jobs, some pessimists say. Thus far, that is not the case. For instance, in 2025, nearly 55,000 of 1.17 million layoffs were directly attributed to AI, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Other estimates peg the number higher at 200,000–300,000 positions in 2025. While that estimate is more concerning, it is only about 0.15–0.20% of total nonfarm employment.

Looking forward, the outlook gets murky. Goldman Sachs has a dire outlook with 300 million jobs globally at risk. But that only tells half the story. The World Economic Forum (WEF) estimates that AI will create 170 million jobs globally.

There is no doubt that AI will have significant impacts on the economy, labor market, and many individuals. Prior innovations are proof. To wit, about two-thirds of US jobs in the 1940s no longer exist. The replacement jobs were enabled by new innovations.

While the future remains uncertain, the past relationship between job growth, wages, and productivity is encouraging. As we share below, PwC claims “wages are rising 2x faster in industries most vs least exposed to AI.”

Productivity Gains Will Spread

Economic growth and wage growth are a direct function of productivity. Productivity measures the amount of leverage an economy can generate from its two primary inputs, labor and capital. Without productivity, an economy is solely reliant on two limited inputs. Thus, without productivity growth, economic growth is unlikely over the long run.

Therefore, it’s critical to discuss how much productivity AI will generate and how it will be distributed.  The first part, how much, is nearly impossible to assess today. That said, PwC estimates that productivity growth has nearly quadrupled in AI-exposed industries since 2022. Further:

Is AI really the cause of this surge in productivity? We can’t prove causation with certainty, but we do know that revenue growth in AI-exposed industries accelerated sharply in 2022, the year that the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 awakened the world to AI’s power. Since then, as companies have raced to leverage this technology, the value created in industries best positioned to use AI has skyrocketed. In the space of two years, industries most able to use AI have changed from productivity laggards to leaders, suggesting that investments in AI are paying off. AI’s promise is proving to be real, and we are only in the early days of AI adoption.  

Regarding the distribution of productivity, some pessimists argue that AI’s productivity gains are flowing overwhelmingly to high-income knowledge workers. While that is currently true, that has also been the case with every major technology wave in its early phase. Factory automation initially benefited capital owners. Personal computers initially benefited white-collar workers. The internet initially benefited the educated and connected. But over time, prices fall, adoption rates grow, and the benefits spread across the entire workforce.

History’s verdict is consistent: the benefits start narrow and ultimately spread wide across the economy. As we share in the graphic below, as a result of the US being a global leader in innovation, our poorest states, Mississippi, West Virginia, and Arkansas, have a similar or higher GDP per capita than other large nations.

Summary

While still early in the AI revolution, the economic data points to genuine economic momentum. Whether AI productivity benefits can become more broadly based across the economy is the question that Part Two of this article addresses.

Before we present the other side, we will leave you with a PwC table that addresses concerns about productivity and the labor market.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 11:25

Judge Blocks ICE Agents From Conducting Arrests At Immigration Courts In New York

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge issued a ruling on May 18 barring federal agents from conducting arrests at three Manhattan immigration courts, except in limited circumstances.

A federal officer stands by in a hallway at New York Federal Plaza Immigration Court inside the Jacob K. Javitz Federal Building in New York on October 1, 2025. Charly Triballeau / AFP via Getty Images

The ruling by U.S. District Judge P. Kevin Castel stemmed from a lawsuit filed by the New York Civil Liberties Union and other groups on behalf of The Door and African Communities Together, which sought to challenge U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies that allow federal agents to arrest people in immigration courts.

Castel had initially declined to block the policy last September, but the plaintiffs later filed a motion in response to a March letter in which the government admitted that the 2025 ICE guidance—which it had relied on to justify arrests at immigration courts following the lawsuit—“does not and has never applied” to civil immigration enforcement actions at immigration courts.

In a 15-page ruling on May 18, Castel granted the plaintiffs’ request to stay the ICE policy, barring federal agents from arresting people at three Manhattan immigration courts—26 Federal Plaza, 201 Varick Street, and 290 Broadway—except under “certain enumerated circumstances.”

“There is a strong governmental interest in enforcing immigration laws. There is also a serious interest of The Door to be free to assist its members in defending removal proceedings brought against them and pursuing defensive asylum applications before an [immigration judge] without fear of arrest,” Castel stated.

The judge added that ICE agents are only allowed to make arrests at immigration courts when there are “serious threats of physical harm to public safety.”

Castel also said the government’s concession that the 2025 policies did not apply to immigration courts warranted reexamining his previous ruling “to correct a clear error and prevent a manifest injustice.”

In a March 24 letter addressed to Castel, government lawyers expressed regret over a “material mistaken statement of fact” presented to the court and said it was caused by “agency attorney error.”

“This error, however, was not caused by a lack of diligence and care by the undersigned attorneys. The undersigned were specifically informed by ICE that the 2025 ICE Guidance applied to immigration courthouse arrests,” the letter states.

Amy Belsher, director of Immigrants’ Rights Litigation at the New York Civil Liberties Union, called the latest ruling “an enormous win for noncitizen New Yorkers seeking to safely attend their immigration court proceedings.”

“We look forward to a final ruling in the case that sets aside these cruel, pointless policies once and for all,” Belsher said in a May 18 statement.

The Epoch Times reached out to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:45

Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom

Oil futures are down bigly this morning following comments from President Trump that the war in Iran would be ended "very quickly," but investors remained uncertain about the potential for de-escalation.

"We're going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly, they're tired of - this should have happened for 47 years," Trump told a group of Congress members at the White House's annual congressional picnic on Tuesday.

"Somebody should have done something about it. And it's going to happen, and it's going to happen fast. And you're going to see oil prices plummet," the president added.

Oil's declines were also reportedly driven by this optimism about a final deal draft peace agreement:

On Tuesday, two Chinese tankers carrying crude oil traversed the Strait of Hormuz.

Another, a South Korean vessel, was passing through it, according to a Reuters report. Jim Reid, of Deutsche Bank, noted that this marks "one of the busiest days since the closure."

However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards also warned on Wednesday that any renewed strikes on Iran could expand the war beyond the region.

The IRGC also said it had not used all its capacities against the U.S. and Israel, while warning that their "devastating blows will crush" the adversaries, the IRGC said in a statement on its Sepah News website.

For now, all eyes are on the official inventory and supply data (and SPR) after yuuuge draws reported by API overnight...

API

• Crude -9.1mm (-3.4mm exp)

• Cushing -1.4mm

• Gasoline -5.8mm

• Distillates -1.0mm

DOE

• Crude -7.863mm (-6.0mm exp)

• Cushing -1.604mm

• Gasoline -1.548mm

• Distillates +372k

Crude stocks tumbled last week (biggest draw since Feb 13th) for the fourth week in a row. Gsoline inventories saw their 14th weekly drawdown in a row whil distillates saw another small build...

Source: Bloomberg

Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns continue to accelerate with 9.92mm barrels/day - a record - drained last week. That means over 10% of the SPR has been drained in the last few weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

Total US crude stocks including the SPR are at the lowest level since June 2025 with this week seeing the largest SPR + Commercial stock drawdown in history...

Gasoline stockpiles continued their steady decline last week, falling another 1.5 million barrels. Stocks are still at the lowest seasonal levels since 2014.

Cushing stocks are rapidly approaching 'tank bottoms' once again...

US Crude production dipped very modestly last week...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI (July 2026) suddenly plunged below $100 just ahead of the official data (on peace deal optimism) and extended the losses after the big draw...

Finally, though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end.

"The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie.

"The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth."

The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday.

It appears that American drivers will face the highest gas prices ever for Memorial Day...

...not great for Midterms/Approval ratings.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:38

Samsung Union Postpones Massive General Strike, Puts Wage Deal To Vote

Summary:

• Samsung Union Postpones Massive Strike For Union Vote On Saturday

• Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks Collapse  

Samsung Union Postpones General Strike For Weekend Vote 

Late Wednesday night in South Korea, Samsung and its largest union held last-minute negotiations ahead of a massive general strike.

Vice Minister Kwon Chang-jun of the Ministry of Employment and Labor joined the negotiating table between Samsung and its largest union, a move that appears to have led to a breakthrough.

South Korea's national wire service, Yonhap, reports that the union has postponed plans for a strike tomorrow and will put a tentative wage deal to a vote. 

"We will postpone the general strike scheduled for May 21-June 7 until further notice," Samsung and the union wrote in a joint press release. 

The vote on the tentative wage deal begins on Saturday.

Earlier, the union pressed forward with plans for a general strike at Samsung chip fabs due to the company negotiators' inability to scrap an existing bonus cap, allocate 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and formalize these new demands in a wage contract.

Samsung had previously proposed allocating 10% of operating profit to bonuses, along with a one-time special compensation package for workers that is well above industry standards.

Samsung executives argued that the union's demands would be challenging to sustain in the coming years. 

Why the union is striking...

Crisis averted? Well, all eyes are on the weekend vote.

Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks Collapse  

Asian equities extended losses for a fourth straight session, with South Korea's benchmark KOSPI falling about 1% as the market priced in the shock of an imminent labor action at Samsung Electronics.

A full-scale, 18-day strike involving more than 47,000 workers at the world's largest memory-chip maker is set to begin Thursday, raising the risk of production disruptions across the global semiconductor supply chain, which is already tight due to AI data center buildouts.

Samsung Electronics' talks with its largest union collapsed overnight as union negotiators demanded the removal of a bonus cap, allocation of 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and that those terms be written into contracts, citing memory-chip maker SK Hynix's 10% profit-sharing arrangement.

Samsung negotiators accepted most of the demands, including a proposed 10% operating profit bonus pool and special compensation, but called the union's remaining requests unsustainable.

"We deeply regret that the post-mediation process has concluded [without resolution] due to delays in decision-making by the management," Samsung Electronics Labor Union Chairman Choi Seung-ho told reporters at the National Labor Relations Commission in the city of Sejong. "We cannot help but feel disappointed that the mediation ended without the company ultimately reaching a decision."

Japan's financial outlet Nikkei Asia reported, "The strike would affect only the company's domestic plants, which are the base of its chipmaking operations." 

The collapse in talks comes as Samsung shares surge on record profits, driven by soaring demand for memory chips, even as hyperscalers are set to deploy $700 billion in capex to build AI infrastructure in the US. Demand is also rising globally as the race for AI compute intensifies.

TrendForce data show that Samsung is the world's largest memory chipmaker, with a 36% market share in DRAM chips and one-third in NAND Flash chips.

Commenting on the market reaction, UBS analyst Joe Dickinson noted:

"Asia was lower for a fourth consecutive session, with the KOSPI dropping as much as 3% on Samsung strike risk before partially recovering."

UBS analyst Kevin Loke commented on the FX reaction:

USDKRW initially traded with an offered tone, with spot opening at 1513.4 and falling nearly 10 won to a low of 1503.8. However, headlines that the Samsung union strike will proceed as planned on Thursday, following a breakdown in talks, pushed the pair back higher toward 1510.

A BoK report to the president estimated a potential impact of up to KRW30 trillion in lost production. For now, USDKRW is likely to remain within a broader 1480–1520 range, with the pair relatively less sensitive to the recent thematic shift toward the global bond sell-off.

Samsung shares fell as much as 4.4% before reversing their losses. Notice "Samsung Strike" headlines in corporate media weighing on shares...

Coverage:

• Samsung Strike Threat Sparks Selling Contagion In Memory Stocks

• Samsung, South Korean Union Resume Talks As Strike Threat Risks Disrupting Memory Chip Fabs

• Samsung, Union Resume Talks After Labor Action Scare; Goldman Says "Korea: Buy"

Bloomberg pointed out, "The government has previously hinted that it could resort to rarely used emergency powers to prevent a strike if the parties fail to reach an agreement. South Korea has invoked the emergency arbitration mechanism only four times since 1969."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:08

Xi Warns US Against New Iran Strikes, Denounces 'Law Of The Jungle', As Putin Talks Energy Leverage In Beijing Summit

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin for a high-stakes summit on Wednesday, just days after wrapping up closely watched talks with Trump, which by all accounts failed to produce any Washington-Beijing breakthroughs.

The optics were carefully engineered, and many international outlets observed Putin's state welcome was no less lavish and opulent than Trump's own, with the Russian leader entering Great Hall of the People with full military pomp, children waving flags, and the standard marching band - again, strikingly similar to the red-carpet treatment rolled out for Trump last week.

For example, Al Jazeera writes that "We were expecting a more low-key ceremony, but he actually received an identical welcome treatment as Trump last week." And more:

He had the red carpet rolled out for him; he received a 21-gun salute, as well as children waving Russian and Chinese flags, saying, ‘We warmly welcome you.’

The only difference is who greeted Putin at the airport. With Trump, it was Han Zheng, the vice president, and for Putin, it was Wang Yi, the foreign minister.

via Sputnik

President Xi in his opening remarks delivered a sharp critique of the current geopolitical landscape, warning that the world is at risk of regressing into the "law of the jungle" -  but hailed the Beijing-Moscow alliance as a crucial stabilizing force against what he later termed "all unilateral bullying" in the international arena, which appeared a passing jab at the United States. The very timing of the Putin summit has widely been viewed as a display of leverage.

Among key moments is that Xi called for "a comprehensive ceasefire" in the Middle East and the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He characterized the standoff situation in the Persian Gulf as a "critical juncture between war and peace." Xi called for the "unimpeded flow" of crude transit through the strait, as it is in "the common interest of the international community."

"My four-point proposal for maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East aims to further build international consensus and contribute to easing tensions, deescalating conflict, and promoting peace," Xi said on the Iran crisis according to state news outlet Xinhua. Noticeably absent, however, was mention of finding peace in Ukraine. They agreed that it was "necessary to address the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis."

As for Iran, Xi also explicitly noted that further hostilities in the Middle East were "inadvisable" and that a "comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency." Putin during the summit sought to assure Beijing that Moscow remains a "reliable energy supplier" amid global oil supply shocks, noting their bilateral relationship sits at an"unprecedentedly high level."

He even at one point invoked a classical Chinese proverb to describe his relationship with Xi: "Even if we haven’t seen each other for a day, it feels like three autumns have passed."

Xi Jinping welcomed Putin at Tiananmen Square

The leaders of Russia and China have concluded their talks in Beijing. The two sides signed around 40 bilateral agreements on cooperation in various spheres.

However, the future of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline remains… pic.twitter.com/mnvLmYkwDi

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 20, 2026

Below are some quick highlights based on some emerging reporting Wednesday:

Treaty Extension: The signing of a wave of bilateral agreements across technology, trade, and intellectual property, anchored by the extension of the 25-year-old "China-Russia treaty of good neighborliness and friendly cooperation."

The Energy Lifeline: Putin countered by assuring Beijing that Moscow remains a "reliable energy supplier" amid global oil supply shocks, noting their bilateral relationship sits at an "unprecedentedly high level."

The Crude Lifeline: China remains critical in terms of an outside Russian economic lifeline, purchasing nearly 50% of Moscow's total oil exports as Western sanctions continue to squeeze Russia's domestic capital.

On potentially reviving a major stalled Russian gas pipeline project, CNBC wrote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Wednesday, with the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline on the agenda, as the Iran war disrupts energy supplies.

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said Tuesday that the project “will be discussed in great detail between the leaders.”

The planned 2,600-kilometer pipeline would carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia’s Yamal fields to China via Mongolia. Moscow and Beijing signed a legally binding memorandum to advance construction in September 2025, but pricing, financing terms, and a delivery timeline remain unresolved.

Later this year, in November, both Presidents Trump and Putin could attend the APEC summit (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) on Chinese soil. 

via Bloomberg

The White House website hints at APEC summit attendance: "President Trump and President Xi agreed that the United States and China should build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of fairness and reciprocity. President Trump will welcome President Xi for a visit to Washington this fall. The two countries will support each other as the respective hosts of the G20 and APEC Summits later this year."

In the context of the Iran conflict Trump has lifted some oil sanctions on Russia, making its oil trade a key beneficiary of the US-Israel initiated war. "Russia has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the Middle East conflict due to the massive supply vacuum created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz," George Voloshin, an independent energy analyst based in Paris, has commented. "Global refiners are desperate for alternative medium-sour crudes, a need that Russia’s Urals grade specifically meets."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:05

The Building Blocks Of A Global Stagflationary Shock Are Falling Into Place

By Peter de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

The Inflation Regime That Doesn't Fade

As we noted at the outset of the Gulf conflict, history rarely repeats – but it often rhymes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly revealing a familiar pattern: the building blocks of a global stagflationary shock are falling into place.

A closer look across inflation indicators in advanced economies shows a clear and consistent structure. The upstream impact has been immediate and forceful – exactly as expected in an energy-driven shock. The surge in oil and gas prices has translated into sharp increases in petroleum products such as diesel, and into key industrial inputs like sulphur and fertilisers. Producer price expectations – particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, base metals, and wood – have risen rapidly, in many cases outpacing the (initial) post-Covid surge. European industrial surveys point to strong repricing at the start of the production chain.

But further downstream, the picture is more nuanced, for now. While higher input costs are being passed through, the degree of transmission appears more muted than during the inflation surge of 2021–2022. Initial producer price data suggest that firms are adjusting prices, but not with the same breadth or intensity yet. Part of this may be timing – pass-through is always gradual – and whilst the gap between sharply rising price expectations and more modest realized price increases is notable, this could also point to more significant price hikes in the months ahead.

At the consumer level, the divergence is clearer. Inflation has responded, but the impulse remains concentrated in energy and energy-related components. Headline CPI prints have broadly matched expectations, and in some cases even surprised to the downside. Core inflation has remained contained. However, the same sort of slow transmission was seen during the initial phase of the 2021-2022 inflation surge, which, arguably, led policy makers to respond too slowly. So it’s too early to draw any firm conclusions and ‘transitory’ cannot be one of them, for now.

However, there is one crucial difference: the starting point for this shock is materially weaker demand. Labor markets have cooled in many places, albeit not to the same degree. US payrolls growth and job openings have slowed. In the Eurozone, labor market tightness indicators have eased (even as unemployment has stayed at cyclical lows). In the UK, unemployment has moved back to around 5%, vacancies have dropped to a five-year low, and wage growth continues to slow. As Stefan Koopman, our UK analyst, notes, these are not the conditions of an overheated economy requiring aggressive monetary tightening. Instead, they suggest increasing slack – an environment in which firms may struggle to fully pass on higher costs without sacrificing demand.

As a result, while energy prices are likely to push inflation higher in the coming months, the broader macro backdrop does not appear conducive to a sustained second-round inflation spiral. That said, central banks may still feel compelled to respond – more as a signal than out of necessity. In the UK, for instance, a symbolic rate hike cannot be ruled out, as policymakers seek to underscore their commitment to the inflation target, even if the case for a full tightening cycle remains weak.

Policy choices will be critical in shaping the trajectory from here. One of the defining lessons from the 2021–22 inflation episode is that policy responses can amplify shocks. The combination of large-scale fiscal support and ultra-loose monetary policy played a key role in transforming an initial supply shock into a broad-based and persistent inflation surge. Today, the policy environment is different – rates are higher, fiscal space is more constrained – but the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the Hormuz disruption complicates the outlook.

In that context, policymakers may be inclined to assume persistence rather than transience, if only as a precaution. Markets, for their part, have already moved in that direction. Bond yields have repriced sharply higher, particularly at the long end, tightening financial conditions globally. The US 10-year yield rose above 4.67% yesterday, the highest level since mid-January 2025. And although European yields were dragged higher as well, the spread of 10y Treasuries over German bunds has widened from 120bp on 13 April to nearly 150bp yesterday. The rise in US Treasury yields – alongside a widening spread over German Bunds – signals that investors are increasingly focused on both inflation persistence and fiscal sustainability.

This shift in market discipline is not going unnoticed. The IMF has urged Britain to “stay the [fiscal] course” in its ‘Article IV’ consultation. At this week’s G7 meeting, finance ministers and central bankers struck a notably cautious tone, emphasising that any policy support should remain temporary, targeted, and fiscally responsible. Compared to the sweeping interventions seen in recent crises, the response so far has been measured – arguably deliberately so.

Yet this restraint also exposes a tension. While targeted domestic support is relatively straightforward, meaningful international coordination is far more challenging. Countries face competing objectives: protecting domestic growth, ensuring economic security, and enhancing resilience. Measures such as export restrictions may serve national interests but risk undermining collective outcomes. In that sense, the G7’s commitment to cooperation may prove difficult to translate into concrete action.

This suggests a risk of fragile stagflation, with slowing growth alongside persistent inflation. The main danger is not runaway prices but policy errors and poor coordination amid ongoing geopolitical pressures. Much depends on the duration of the Hormuz disruption, as supply shocks may last longer than expected and blur the line between temporary and persistent inflation.

This may also be the reason why we see tentative signs that policymakers are beginning to look beyond purely economic tools. The economic consequences of the Hormuz closure are, after all, rooted in a geopolitical disruption. Discussions within NATO about potentially facilitating maritime passage through the strait underscore a growing recognition that resolving the supply shock itself may be the most effective form of policy response. Although there is no unanimous support yet, according to sources, as per Bloomberg reporting, the fact that NATO is reconsidering an (active) role was seen by investors as a positive development.

Meanwhile, after months of wrangling, the EU finalized the text on the US-EU trade deal, to be signed off by European Parliament and member states before Trump’s 4 July deadline. Reaching a compromise was driven by the overriding objective of “maintaining a stable, predictable and balanced transatlantic partnership”, as put by Cyprus’ minister of commerce. However, the text now includes a 2029 expiration date (unless both sides agree extension). It also includes a clause that would allow the Commission to suspend the deal if tariffs on products using steel and aluminium surpass 15% after 2026 and a ‘pause button’ should the US not keep with its commitments. So let’s see if the US wants to cooperate.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 09:50

AI Purge Accelerates: Intuit Reportedly Slashing 17% Of Workforce

Intuit, the company that owns TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp, is reportedly preparing to lay off a staggering 17% of its workforce according to Reuters, which cites an internal memo.

INTUIT TO LAY OFF 17% OF WORKFORCE: MEMO

Initial claims about to print new record low

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 20, 2026

Details are scant at the moment regarding the reason for the layoffs, but CEO Sasan Goodarzi sent an email to staff earlier in the day, saying that reducing complexity and simplifying the structure would help it deliver better ​products, to streamline operations and sharpen focus ​on its key bets including its AI efforts.

The company has signed multi-year deals with AI startups Anthropic and ​OpenAI to integrate their AI models into its software and add Intuit's personalized tax, finance, ‌accounting and ⁠marketing capabilities into Claude and ChatGPT.

Bloomberg data shows Intuit's total workforce was around 18,200 in mid-2025. If those figures are still accurate, the layoffs could affect upwards of 3,000 employees.

As of Tuesday's close, Intuit shares were down nearly 40% on the year amid AI fears disrupting the software stocks.

Shares are down 2% in premarket trading.

Analysts are mostly bullish…

Related:

• Meta Axes 8,000 Workers As Zuckerberg Admits AI Is Watching, Replacing Labor

The last day for impacted staff at Intuit in the United States will be July 31 and they will receive 16 weeks of base pay and two extra weeks for every year at Intuit as part of ​the severance package, the ​memo on Wednesday ⁠showed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 09:35

Trump Retains Dominant Influence: 4 Takeaways From Tuesday's Primary Elections

Authored by Joseph Lord, Jeff Louderback, Troy Myers, and Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

Voters on Tuesday headed to the polls in states across the country for some of the most-anticipated battles of the 2026 midterm election season.

May 19 marks the largest day of primary elections yet, seeing ballots cast across six states: Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

The night continued past trends showing that President Donald Trump retains a dominant influence over the Republican Party, as his chosen candidates sailed to victory in race after race—with one Republican incumbent in a major race being defeated.

Democrats, meanwhile, locked in their picks for several key congressional races, as the party works to reclaim the House and possibly the Senate.

Here are the biggest takeaways from the night.

Massie Unseated

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost his Republican primary to former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, concluding one of the most-watched (and most expensive) primary battles of the 2026 election cycle.

President Donald Trump had endorsed Gallrein as part of his effort to get Massie removed from Congress.

Trump was openly critical of Massie and urged people in Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District to elect Gallrein.

Gallrein had tallied 54 percent of the votes compared to 45 percent for Massie when The Associated Press called the race at 7:54 p.m. ET.

Massie’s ousting is seen as underscoring Republican voters’ support for Trump.

The Kentucky lawmaker, who’s been at odds with Trump over several issues, joins Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and several Indiana state senators who were defeated by primary challengers backed by Trump in recent weeks.

Gallrein, in his victory speech, vowed to work closely with the president in Congress.

“We have a saying on the family farm that it’s a contact sport,” Gallrein said at an election night event in Covington, Kentucky. “I can tell you that campaigning is one as well, folks.”

Kentucky, Alabama Open Senate Primaries

In Kentucky and Alabama, voters went to the polls to cast ballots in open Senate primaries for seats being vacated by their incumbents.

Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) will face former Democratic state Rep. Charles Booker in the race to replace outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in the U.S. Senate.

The Associated Press called the Republican primary race for Barr at 7 p.m. ET, an hour after polls closed. Barr won with 60.5 percent of the vote to 30.8 percent for the next closest rival, former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

On the Democratic side, Booker—who previously served as Democrat’s nominee for the post in 2022—won with 46.8 percent of the vote. His closest rival, 2020 Democratic nominee Amy McGrath, trails with 35.8 percent of the vote. The race was called at 9:41 p.m. ET.

The primary marks the first time in 16 years that the state has seen a fully open race for a Kentucky Senate seat. The last such primary took place in 2010, when Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) won his first election to Congress.

McConnell, 84, was first elected to his seat in 1984. He had served as the leader of the Republican Senate conference since January 2007 before agreeing to step down at the start of the current Congress.

Meanwhile, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.), Trump’s pick to replace outgoing Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), will advance to a runoff, as he fell short of the 50 percent needed to forgo the second election.

The Republican he’ll face is still being determined as votes are counted.

Trump has called Moore “a true America First Patriot who’s been with me from the very beginning.”

Georgia Republican Races Go to Runoff

Voters in the Peach State sent Republican candidates in Georgia’s gubernatorial and Senate elections to a runoff.

Trump-endorsed Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire businessman Rick Jackson will go to a runoff in Georgia’s gubernatorial primary contest.

Jones and Jackson received 37 percent and 34 percent of the vote, respectively, when the Associated Press called the runoff at 8:50 p.m. ET, as neither managed to garner more than 50 percent of the vote in what became a costly contest for the GOP field.

Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger came in third with 14 percent of the vote.

Another competitive Georgia Republican contest is also on its way to a second round.

As of 9:50 p.m. ET on May 19, none of the major candidates in the state’s Senate GOP primary—Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Rep. Earl “Buddy” Carter (R-Ga.), and former football coach Derek Dooley—had claimed more than 50 percent of the vote in the Senate primary.

At 9:44 p.m. ET, the Associated Press declared that Collins will advance to the runoff. It later declared that Dooley will face him in that race.

As of 11:52 p.m., Collins had received 40.5 percent of the vote. Dooley followed with 30.1 percent, while Carter trailed in third with 25.2 percent.

The runoff was expected ahead of Election Day, as polling generally did not show any candidate with a majority.

Bernadette Breslin, the national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told The Epoch Times in an exclusive statement that “Republicans are united behind defeating Ossoff and retiring his record of failure for Georgia.”

Trump has not given an endorsement in the Senate race.

The runoff elections are set for June 16.

Pennsylvania Democrats Make Picks in Key Swing Districts

While observers’ focus was largely centered on Republican races during this round of voting, Democratic candidates were also locked in for several key swing districts during the May 19 elections.

It’s unclear whether Democrats can overcome Republicans’ steep 53-seat majority in the U.S. Senate, and the party is instead focusing its major efforts this cycle on the House, where Democrats are widely expected to reclaim the majority by observers.

In Pennsylvania, three Democratic candidates endorsed by Gov. Josh Shapiro won their elections, including Janelle Stelson, Bob Harvie, and Bob Brooks.

The three candidates will take on Republican opponents in the November general election, in seats that include some of the party’s top targets.

Stelson will go up against Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Harvie against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), and Brooks against Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.).

Shapiro himself is seeking reelection this year, running for the gubernatorial nomination unopposed. Shapiro’s approach to politics has been viewed as moderate by voters in the state, propelling him to a sweeping double-digit victory in his 2022 election, giving his endorsement some weight in state politics.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 09:05

 

 

The paperback of “How NOT to Invest” drops this month; to celebrate, I present this excerpt from the book about a BW story that was published exactly 25 years ago!

This short, Apple-related excerpt from the book was a fun chapter to write… Enjoy!

 

 

“Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work”

“Few outsiders think new stores, no matter how well-conceived, will get Apple back on the hot-growth path… Maybe it’s time Steve Jobs stopped thinking quite so differently.”
—BusinessWeek, May 21, 2001

A year after Fortune’s Cisco debacle, BusinessWeek1 published a story on Apple’s foray into retail stores. Not just BusinessWeek, but many naysayers laughed off the inevitable failure of Apple’s push into retail.2 Numerous armchair pontificators freely shared their uninformed opinions as to why this concept was destined to fail. “I give [Apple] two years before they’re turning out the lights on a very painful and expensive mistake,” predicted retail consultant David Goldstein.3

After all, established consumer electronics chains were all in decline, and the writing was on the wall. Gateway would soon close its retail stores (2004), and not long after, CompUSA would shutter its physical locations (2007).

Investors should always be on the alert for structural errors in media stories: Authors operating outside of their expertise; people unaware of recent developments; extrapolators extending present trends far into the future. It is an excellent reminder of exactly the kinds of errors investors should avoid. A fallible human being publishing their uninformed opinion in print should never be the basis for making any intelligent investment decision.

There are many genuinely revolutionary products and services that when they come along, change everything. Pick your favorite: the iPod and iPhone, Tesla Model S, Netflix streaming, Amazon Prime, AI, perhaps even Bitcoin. Radical products break the mold; their difference and unfamiliarity challenge us. We (mostly) cannot foretell the impact of true innovation. Then once it’s a wild success, we have a hard time recalling how life was before that product existed.

The Apple Store was clearly one of those game-changers: By 2020, Apple had opened over 500 stores in 25 countries. They are among top-tier retailers, and the fastest ever to reach a billion dollars per year in sales. They did more in sales per square foot in 2012 than any other retailer.4 By 2017, they were generating $5,546 per square foot in revenues, twice the dollar amount of Tiffany’s, their closest competitor.5 Apple no longer breaks out the specifics of its stores in its quarterly reports, but estimates of store revenue is about $2.4 billion per month.

That guy who wrote, “Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work,” I wonder what the rest of his portfolio looks like…

Finance seems to encourage this kind of future forecasting. We are bad at this, because we often lack awareness of what we do and do not know about the limits of our expertise; we do not truly understand the present, let alone the future. We often wishfully predict what we want to be true, rather than what will come to be.

We look at the Dunning-Kruger effect later, but the key takeaway is most of us are not very good at metacognition—estimating our own skillsets.

Learning what we do and don’t know—working within our capabilities— that’s challenging enough, without other people’s bad forecasts in our heads…6

 

 

Footnotes:
1. Cliff Edwards, “Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work,” BusinessWeek (May 21, 2001).

2. Nearly a decade and a half later, those naysayers were recounted here: Ana Swanson, “How the Apple store took over the world,” The Washington Post ( July 21, 2015).

3. Jerry Useem, “Apple: America’s best retailer,” Fortune (March 8 2007).

4. Seth Fiegerman, “Apple Has Twice the Sales Per Square Foot of Any Other U.S. Retailer,” Mashable (November 13, 2012).

5. Chance Miller, “Apple again found to be the world’s top retailer in sales per square foot,” 9TO5Mac ( July 29, 2017). See also: Marianne Wilson, “The most profitable retailers in sales per square foot are….” Chain Store Age (CSA) ( July 31, 2017).

6. If you think the Apple Store cover story was bad, just wait until you see what the media had to say about BlackBerry…

 

 

The paperback of “How NOT to Invest” is out this week at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Books-AMillion, Bookshop, Hudson, or wherever you buy your favorite books!

If you want to learn more about how the book was made, any related media appearances or background, get unique bonus material, or just ask a question, you can sign up here: HNTI at RitholtzWealth dot com.

 

The post Why the Apple Store Will Fail… appeared first on The Big Picture.

The post Reforming Bankruptcy Laws: Getting Tough on Private Equity Deadbeats appeared first on CEPR.

NANO Nuclear's Reactor Construction Permit Accepted For Review

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has formally begun its review of the construction permit application for an advanced microreactor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. 

✅ #NRCNews: We've kicked off the formal review of the @UofIllinois application for an advanced microreactor. https://t.co/0gMFCuDv5u

— NRC (@NRCgov) May 19, 2026

The announcement marks the transition from the agency’s acceptance review to the substantive technical evaluation of NANO Nuclear’s KRONOS design.

This step carries more weight than the initial filing. Submitting an application demonstrates readiness on paper; the NRC’s decision to open a full review confirms the submission meets the threshold for detailed scrutiny. 

For a first-of-a-kind microreactor project, clearing that gate is a concrete regulatory advance.

We've tracked the Illinois project closely, including the construction permit application submission itself, described at the time as a defining moment for commercial microreactor deployment. Earlier coverage in October 2025 detailed the start of drilling and site preparation work with the university. 

We've also detailed other updates from the company including their recent MOU with Supermicro and progress with their high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) transportation package.

The KRONOS effort is also not occurring in isolation. Other advanced reactor programs have recorded measurable NRC milestones in recent months with TerraPower’s Natrium reactor in Wyoming receiving its construction permit and X-energy achieving a notable environmental clearance for its four-unit Xe-100 project at Dow’s Seadrift site in Texas.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 08:35

A "Rubbish, Knee-Jerk Reaction": UK Treasury Pushes Food Price Caps As Inflation Re-Accelerates

UK supermarkets are being urged by the government to limit food prices in return for easing regulations.

As first reported by The Financial Times, the price caps are 'voluntary' and would apply to key groceries – such as eggs, bread, and milk - according to retail industry sources with knowledge of the plans.

In return, the government has said it would offer “incentives” to the supermarkets, which the people said could include easing packaging policies and potentially delaying costly changes to rules around healthy food.

As one may well expect, supermarkets are understood to be strongly opposed to the plans.

The Treasury has declined to comment.

The proposals come as Sir Keir Starmer’s government is battling to address public concern over the cost of living.

Scottish retailers recently condemned a similar policy by the Scottish National Party as a “1970s-style” gimmick.

One person close to a supermarket said the Treasury’s initiative was “a rubbish, knee-jerk reaction to the SNP”.

UK food inflation rose to 3.7 per cent in April, and the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has warned the world is “sleepwalking into a global food crisis”, with the Middle East war throttling supply chains.

And in line with the magical thinking, the Treasury has also told supermarkets that it would like guarantees that British farmers would not lose income from shop price caps.

Former Brexit minister Lord Frost weighed in on social media platform X, calling the proposal "remarkable (and remarkably bad) if true.

"There are certainly plenty of people in this govt whose understanding of economics is so poor that they might consider it a good idea."

SNP leader John Swinney has defended his party's approach, arguing he faces a "public health responsibility" to ensure affordable nutrition for people "struggling to afford a very basic shop."

“It is a completely ill-thought-out, last-minute idea . . . The idea that the government can set price better than the market is for the birds,” one person familiar with the discussions told the FT.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:55

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

• Stock Gains Without All the Taxes? How the Hottest Trade on Wall Street Works: The stock-market surge has propelled the use of a new kind of tax-loss harvesting. We break it down. The WSJ on the surge of direct-indexing and Section 351 ETF conversions that let wealthy investors swap concentrated stock into diversified portfolios without triggering capital gains. A useful explainer for clients asking about it. The stock-market surge has propelled the use of a new kind of tax-loss harvesting. We break it down. (Wall Street Journal)

• Trump’s Investments In Palantir And Nvidia Draw Scrutiny—Here’s What Companies Were Traded. President Donald Trump drew scrutiny Friday over millions of dollars of securities trades made in recent months involving companies his administration has also made deals with — though Trump’s son Eric said the trades were made by a blind trust. Forbes lines up the President’s recent trading activity against companies with direct policy exposure. Read alongside the WSJ pieces on his accounts — it’s a single story being told in pieces. (Forbes) see also See How Trump’s Accounts Were Busy Trading Big Tech Stocks: Trump’s investment accounts had a surge in activity, with more than 3,700 trades in the first quarter. The WSJ’s data-driven look at the trading activity reported across Trump-family accounts — well-timed mega-cap entries and exits clustered around policy news. Make of it what you will. (Wall Street Journal)

• New York Real Estate in the Age of Inherited Wealth. NYC housing no longer tracks real estate fundamentals, it tracks equity portfolios and private equity flows, a concentration that feels durable but has never been historically. On the increasingly visible role of parental cash in Manhattan and Brooklyn closings. The first-time buyer cohort is now functionally two markets — those with family equity and everyone else. (Housing Notes)

• Mapping the household-level transmission of monetary policy: The monetary tightening that followed the post-pandemic inflation episode has revived long-standing debates about how monetary policy affects households. This column uses a survey of more than 25,000 US households, combining hypothetical questions with randomised information experiments, to show that monetary policy has a contractionary impact on consumption, but the transmission mechanism differs substantially from conventional theory. VoxEU on micro-data showing rate hikes hit households very unevenly — by mortgage type, age, and income. Useful corrective to anyone still treating “the consumer” as a single object. (VOXEU CEPR)

• LinkedIn Is Doing What Bluesky Was Supposed to Do: Rebuilding a public square on the platform you least expect. For a brief moment about a year ago, it really did look like Bluesky might work. Researchers and left-of-center intellectuals were flooding in, swapping starter packs, reassembling what felt like a nostalgic reunion of old Twitter. Then everyone arrived, and the center could not hold. A sharp argument that the post-Twitter intellectual conversation didn’t move to Bluesky or Threads — it quietly migrated to LinkedIn, of all places. Uncomfortable for everyone involved, but not wrong. (Popular by Design)

• Why are people so excited about Swatch’s Royal Pop watch? Similar to past sales of its kind, some people queued for days to get their hands on one of the eight models. But the ferocity of interest in the product, both online and on the high street, has split opinions about responsible marketing and whether the watches are even worth it. (BBC)

• Google Chrome silently installs a 4 GB AI model on your device without consent: Including a back-of-envelope on the climate cost at billion-device scale. The ‘opt-out’ fiction continues. At a billion-device scale the climate costs are insane. (That Privacy Guy!)

• Russia’s War Is Going Badly—on the Ground and in the Air. Ukraine’s growing arsenal of long-range drones and domestically produced missiles has been hitting oil infrastructure and military facilities deeper inside Russia. Putin shows no signs he is rethinking his aims The WSJ on a Russian summer offensive that has stalled while drones and long-range strikes are quietly wrecking the air arm. The market narrative on oil and defense names is starting to lag the battlefield. Putin shows no signs he is rethinking his aims (Wall Street Journal)

• New panels produce hydrogen fuel using only water, sunlight and no electricity: This grid-independent system eliminates the need for traditional electrolyzers in green hydrogen production. A direct-solar-to-hydrogen panel design with efficiency numbers that, if they hold up at scale, would matter. Big “if” — but the field has had a quietly good year. This grid-independent system eliminates the need for traditional electrolyzers in green hydrogen production. (Interesting Engineering) see also What It Will Take to Make AI Sustainable? Researcher Sasha Luccioni argues we need better emissions data and a better sense of how people are using AI in the first place. Wired on the brute physics problem the industry is still pretending isn’t one — gigawatt clusters, cooling water, and a power grid that wasn’t built for any of this. Real numbers, no hopium.Researcher Sasha Luccioni argues we need better emissions data and a better sense of how people are using AI in the first place. (Wired)

• US science after a year of Trump: A series of graphics reveals how the Trump administration has sought historic cuts to science and the research workforce. (Nature)

Video of the day: World War II told in 20 Episodes with Tom Hanks

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Vimal Kapur, CEO and Chairman of DJIA component Honeywell International. The firm is in the midst of dividing into three companies: Honeywell Automation, Honeywell Aerospace, and Solstice Advanced Materials. The firm has fully integrated AI as the intelligence layer in all of its automation processes and products.

 

Trump’s investment accounts had a surge in activity, with more than 3,700 trades in Q1

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

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The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

UK COVID Inquiry's Endorsement Of Censorship Sets Chilling Precedent

Authored by Molly Kingsley via DailySceptic.org,

According to the UK’s Covid Inquiry, whose fourth report was published in April, there was “in principle, nothing unlawful or inappropriate in the government monitoring publicly available social media to identify potential trends in disinformation or misinformation” during the pandemic period.

The same report, in declining to criticise the censorious activities of the UK Government during the pandemic, noted that the UK government’s Counter Disinformation Unit was required to ensure that its actions were “lawful, necessary and proportionate”.

On a careful reading of this language, the inquiry stops (just) short of expressly endorsing the full scope and extent of the government’s censorship operation.  However, the relevant sections of the inquiry’s report create the distinct, and we can assume deliberate, impression that the CDU’s censorship operation was conducted in accordance with constitutional and democratic principles, and was not only justified but was necessary and proportionate. 

As someone who was on the receiving end of that censorship operation, with the receipts to evidence the very broad scope of commentary that was judged by the CDU to be wrongful or dangerous, this came as a serious disappointment, albeit not a great surprise.

Some would argue that in a national emergency scenario, some degree of information monitoring and intervention might be justified.

The trouble with that argument is that one very quickly then has to grapple with the fact that – as we saw during the pandemic period – it’s precisely in moments of national crisis – moments where critical decisions must be made in complex situations – that contrasting views are most valuable and essential.

As Jay Bhattacharya, Acting Director of the US Centres for Disease Control, has put it: “Dissent is the very essence of science.”

In my own case, the offending posts and articles caught by the CDU were typically either opinion pieces or comments quoted in mainstream news articles. They included such outlandish and outrageous statements as, “It would be unforgivable to close schools”, “Let children use playgrounds” and “It is indefensible that children’s lives are still not back to normal when the rest of society is”. Clearly, many would now agree with these viewpoints. However, even if some, or indeed many might not have agreed with those points of view at the time, the fact that they were valid, lawfully-expressed opinions cannot be disputed.

Perhaps the CDU’s hypersensitivity would not have mattered so much if, as according to the Covid Inquiry’s account, all that was happening during that period was “monitoring” of public sentiment by the government. The inquiry’s report notes that the CDU had ‘trusted flagger’ status with all of the major social media platforms, the effect of which was that CDU flags received special attention; but the same report is at pains to record that decisions about removing or suppressing content “remained exclusively a decision for each social media platform”.

Yet a subsequent investigation by the Telegraph revealed that 90% of the posts referred to social media companies by the CDU were taken down. Indeed, evidence given to the inquiry by the former head of the CDU confirmed that when information was flagged by the CDU it “immediately goes to the top of the pile. Whoever it is in whatever company then acts on it. It is the same system they have across government for things like terrorist content.”

What makes this even worse is that the remit of the CDU went beyond anything that could reasonably be termed mis- or disinformation. In particular, we know in relation to Covid vaccine-related commentary – because a CDU official told a Parliamentary Select Committee in December 2020 – that each of the following categories of content was considered for flagging and removal as ‘anti-vaccine misinformation’:

• commentary about the speed of the development of the Covid vaccines: “It is not safe, those kinds of narratives”;

• commentary about side-effects from the Covid vaccines; and

• commentary about “monetary and big business and links to pharma”, which seems to indicate that criticism of the pharma industry and its financial influence were off limits.

All of this is in sharp contrast to events on the other side of the pond. In May 2024, a US Congressional report observed in the context of its examination of the Biden administration’s pandemic censorship operations:

“By suppressing free speech and intentionally distorting public debate in the modern town square, ideas and policies were no longer fairly tested and debated on their merits. Instead, policymakers implemented a series of public health measures that proved to be disastrous for the country.”

Free debate is one of the key measures of the health of a democracy. Without it, we lose the ability to challenge and to stress test ideas. As we saw during the pandemic, it is often when speech is most controversial that the need to hear it is greatest.

In contrast with the US where a degree of candid investigation of core pandemic failings, especially concerning the suppression of speech and social media censorship, is now taking place, our own Covid Inquiry has completely side-stepped its duty to properly interrogate serious infringements of cornerstone rights and principles of public discourse. Given the investigations going on in the US and the fact that key reports have been public for close to two years, not only is this approach wilfully blind but it is an affront to the liberal democratic ideal of free speech. It sets an appalling precedent, whereby in future public health crisis (or potentially any crisis) we can now expect broad-in-scope monitoring and narrative control of lawful, and indeed essential, contrasting views to be the norm. And, it is disingenuous. At the same time that the inquiry has defended the patent overreach of the government’s censorship operation, it has completely ignored the flagrant, extensive and devastating mis- and disinformation propagated during that same period by pharmaceutical companies, government ministers and senior public health officials who were permitted and encouraged to make statements which were manifestly inflated, exaggerated, coercive or untrue.

Official statements overstating the safety and efficacy of the Covid vaccine programme, particularly when combined with coercive policies affecting children, are blatant examples of dangerous misinformation.

Each of the major vaccine manufacturers has now been found guilty by the UK regulator, many on repeated occasions, for the persistent overstating of benefit and understating of harm in relation to their Covid vaccine products. And yet the inquiry’s report is completely silent on this topic.

Unfortunately the end result, as predicted by many Daily Sceptic readers, is a shameful whitewash that will only further corrode trust in public health.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:30