Calculated Risk

This is the End and a New Beginning

I've been thinking about this for some time.
After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I've decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog.
However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I'll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each week (via a newsletter - see below). This will have three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic. 
And I'll be writing the Real Estate Newsletter usually 4 to 6 times per week (this remains my main focus).

Thanks for reading the blog all these years! I hope it has been useful and informative.
Thanks to all the people who have helped me over the years.  And a special thanks to my friend Tanta; I miss her dearly.   Best to all.
The weekly update will be here:
and the Real Estate Newsletter (published 4 to 6 times per week) is here:

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 16 and DOW futures are down 104 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $59.37 per barrel and Brent at $63.60 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.74 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.03 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.29 year-over-year.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025.   It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 January
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 January. ...

28 December 2025 through 3 January 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024 and 2025):

Occupancy: 50.5% (+4.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$175.47 (+3.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$88.65 (+7.9%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2026, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2025.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
It is difficult to judge performance early in the year.
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next few months. 

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026

The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released.

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, January 12th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, January 13th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.7% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 2.7% YoY.

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September and October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963 through August 2025.

The dashed line is the sales rate for August.

The consensus is for 714 thousand SAAR for October.

----- Wednesday, January 14th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

8:30 AM ET: The Producer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

Retail Sales 8:30 AM: Retail sales for November is scheduled to be released.  
The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. 
This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
December retail sales for December have not been scheduled yet.
Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.23 million SAAR, up from 4.13 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, January 15th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 208K, unchanged from 208K.

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 1.0, down from -3.9.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for January.  The consensus is for a reading of -5.0, up from -10.2.
----- Friday, January 16th -----
Industrial Production 9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 76.0%.

10:00 AM: The January NAHB homebuilder survey
The consensus is for a reading of 40, up from 39 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.