From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast by the same amount to +2.6%. [Jan 17th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 3.8 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to real GDP growth from -0.37 percentage points to -0.41 percentage points. [Jan 17th estimate]

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this December’s business day count compared to last December’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.6% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in November. Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88 million SAAR. This will be the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase following YoY declines every month since July 2021.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

Total starts were down 4.4% in December compared to December 2023. The YoY decrease in December total starts was mostly due to a difficult comparison to starts in December 2023.

Single family starts have been up year-over-year in 13 of the last 18 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 3 of last 19 months. For the year, total starts were down 2.6% compared to 2023. Single family starts were up 6.6% YoY in 2024, and multi-family were down 18.8% YoY.

There is much more in the article.

Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in November. The indexes for mining and utilities climbed 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in December. At 103.2 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in December was 0.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 77.6 percent, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.6% is 2.1% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was above consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 103.2. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was well above consensus expectations.

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000. This is 15.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,050,000; this is 3.3 percent above the revised November figure of 1,016,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 418,000.

An estimated 1,364,100 housing units were started in 2024. This is 3.9 percent below the 2023 figure of 1,420,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,483,000. This is 0.7 percent below the revised November rate of 1,493,000 and is 3.1 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,530,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 992,000; this is 1.6 percent above the revised November figure of 976,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 437,000 in December.

An estimated 1,471,200 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2024. This is 2.6 percent below the 2023 figure of 1,511,100.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased month-over-month in December.   Multi-family starts were down 8.4% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) increased in December and were down 2.6% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up.

I'll have more later …