The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through December.
Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".
Then sales were depressed in May and June. 
Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in Decvember were slightly above the consensus forecast.
Light vehicle sales were up 2.4% in 2025 compared to 2024.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Click on graph for larger image.

Heavy truck sales were at 311 thousand SAAR in December, down from 336 thousand in November, and down 32.5% from 461 thousand SAAR in December 2024.
Sales were down 15.3% in 2025 compared to annual sales in 2024.
Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -1.3% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent fell 0.8% in December, and now stands at $1,356. This closes the book on 2025, with five consecutive months of rent declines. Based on recent years, we expect another 1-2 months of rent drops before the market turns a corner in early Spring.

Realtor.com: 28th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

Across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, median asking rent for 0-2 bedroom units fell for the 28th consecutive month on a year-over-year basis.

There is much more in the article.

The ICE Home Price Index (HPI) is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales.

From ICE (Intercontinental Exchange):

Annual home price growth ended 2025 at just +0.7% — the smallest calendar-year increase since 2011, when prices fell by 2.9%.

With income growth outpacing home price gains and 30-year mortgage rates starting 2026 at 6.15%, housing affordability is at its best level in nearly four years.

At current prices and rates, purchasing an average-priced home with 20% down and a 30-year loan requires a monthly payment of $2,093 — 27.8% of median household income. That’s down from $2,256 (31.1%) at the start of 2025.

According to Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research for Intercontinental Exchange:

“Improved affordability and income growth have provided a much-needed boost to housing market dynamics, even as regional trends and property types show significant variation. The Northeast and Midwest have emerged as clear leaders, while condos continue to face headwinds in most markets.”

Drilling down into regional and property type specifics:

• Regional Standouts: New Haven, CT led all markets with an impressive 8.6% price growth, followed by Syracuse, NY (+6.8%) and Hartford, CT (+6.25%). Notably, 24 of the 25 fastest-appreciating markets were in the Northeast and Midwest.

• Price Declines: On the flip side, 35 of the 100 largest U.S. markets saw home prices decline in 2025 — up from just 10 in 2024 and marking the largest share of declines since 2011.

• Property Type Trends: Single-family homes outperformed condos, with prices rising 1.0% compared to a 1.7% decline for condos. Condos underperformed in 90% of markets nationwide.

As ICE mentioned, "regional trends ... show significant variation".  The Northeast and Midwest are saw solid house price gains in 2025, whereas cities in the South and West have been leading the way in inventory increases and price declines (especially Florida and Texas).

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Holding at 2-Month Low Excerpt:

Bottom line: at current levels, any day that rates spend holding steady or moving microscopically lower will technically result in the lowest rates since October 28th. It would take a more noticeable improvement to break below that floor. When and if that happens, rates will be the lowest since early 2023.[30 year fixed 6.19%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

A brief excerpt:

Three years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs. The bottom line remains the same: There will not be cascading price declines in this cycle due to distressed sales.

In a 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.

First, from February 2005 (21 years ago!):

The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Last year alone mortgage debt increased close to $800 Billion - almost 7% of GDP. ...

Many homeowners have refinanced their homes, in essence using their homes as an ATM.

It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession. An actual bust, especially with all of the extensive sub-prime lending, might cause a serious problem.

And a serious problem is what happened!

There is much more in the article.

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 47.9% in December, down from 48.2% in November. The employment index was at 44.9%, up from 44.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.7%, up from 47.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.9% December 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.9 percent in December, a 0.3-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.2 percent in November and the lowest reading of 2025. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 68th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a fourth straight month in December following one month of growth; the figure of 47.7 percent is 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 0.4 percentage point lower than November’s figure of 51.4 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58.5 percent, the same as November’s reading. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.8 percent, up 1.8 percentage points compared to the 44 percent recorded in November. The Employment Index registered 44.9 percent, up 0.9 percentage point from November’s figure of 44 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the tenth consecutive month in December.  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was very weak and prices very strong.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  
Note that Inventory usually bottoms seasonally in January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 13.3% compared to the same week in 2025 (last week it was up 13.1%), and down 6.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 11.8%). 
Inventory started 2026 down almost 12% compared to 2019.  
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of January 2nd, inventory was at 720 thousand (7-day average), compared to 736 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026

Monday:
• Early, Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were moxed over the last week with WTI futures at $57.32 per barrel and Brent at $60.75 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $77 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.77 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.27 year-over-year.

Here is another update on lumber prices.
NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On January 2, 2026, LBR was at $534.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 1.6% from a year ago.
Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year suggesting weak demand for framing lumber.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

• FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key reports this week are the December employment report and Housing Starts for September and October.

Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit, November Job Openings, December ISM Manufacturing and December Vehicle Sales.

----- Monday, January 5th -----
Early: Light vehicle sales for December.

The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. 
The dashed line is the current sales rate.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

----- Tuesday, January 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, January 7th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 50,000, up from -32,000 jobs added in November.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.67 million from 7.66 million in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for December.

----- Thursday, January 8th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 205K, up from 199K.

----- Friday, January 9th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%.

There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September and October.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 2000.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January)

12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has almost 20 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the October Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.7% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.1% above the bubble peak.
...
People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $448,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.br />
The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.7% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.0% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index increased in October. This was the first increase in the real National index has in 10 months.

It has now been 41 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

<

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2% Q4-over-Q4 in 2025. The FOMC is expecting growth of 2.1% to 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 in 2026. How much will the economy grow in 2026?  Will there be a recession in 2026?
A year ago, I argued that "Looking at 2025, a recession is mostly off the table."  I did go on recession watch during 2025 due to the tariffs, but I noted I wasn't forecasting a recession. 
Even though job growth will likely be sluggish in 2026, fiscal policy will be supportive of economic growth and there will be some boost from a rebound from the government shutdown.  So,  I think a recession in 2026 is very unlikely.  Of course there are always exogenous events such as another pandemic, super volcanoes, a major meteor strike or even nuclear war.  
It is possible that we will see a pull back in AI and data center investing, and that might negatively impact growth, but that would likely be a 2027 story.   It is very likely that many of the tariffs will be ruled illegal (they clearly are illegal), but the Administration has other tools to enact tariffs (more economic uncertainty). 
I've expressed concern about unregulated or poorly regulated areas of finance leading to another financial crisis, but that takes a few years to happen.
Here is a table of the annual change in real GDP since 2005. Note: This table includes both annual change and Q4 over the previous Q4 (two slightly different measures).     

Real GDP Growth YearAnnual
GDPQ4 / Q4 20053.5%3.0% 20062.8%2.6% 20072.0%2.1% 20080.1%-2.5% 2009-2.6%0.1% 20102.7%2.8% 20111.6%1.5% 20122.3%1.6% 20132.1%3.0% 20142.5%2.7% 20152.9%2.1% 20161.8%2.2% 20172.5%3.0% 20183.0%2.1% 20192.6%3.4% 2020-2.1%-0.9% 20216.2%5.8% 20222.5%1.3% 20232.9%3.4% 20242.8%2.4% 202512.1%2.1% 1 2025 estimate   Real GDP growth is a combination of labor force growth and productivity.  
Productivity varies and is difficult to predict, but the labor force growth will likely be sluggish in 2026.  So, my guess is that real annual GDP growth will be less than the FOMC expects, perhaps close to 2%.
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:
• Question #1 for 2026: How much will the economy grow in 2026? Will there be a recession in 2026?

• Question #2 for 2026:  How much will job growth slow in 2026? Or will the economy lose jobs?

• Question #3 for 2026: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?

• Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

• Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

• Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

• Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

• Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

• Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

• Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

2) Employment: Through November 2025, the economy added 610 thousand jobs in 2025.   How many jobs will be added in 2026?  Or will the economy lose jobs?
Last year, I wrote about 2025:

"So, my forecast is for gains of around 1.0 million jobs in 2025.  This will probably be the slowest job growth since 2010 (excluding the 2020 pandemic job losses)."

That was a little optimistic - excluding the pandemic and the great recession - 2025 saw the fewest jobs added since 2003.  Ouch.
For review, here is a table of the annual change in total nonfarm, private and public sector payrolls jobs since 1997.  

Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s) Total, NonfarmPrivatePublic 19973,4063,211195 19983,0462,733313 19993,1882,727461 20001,9331,669264 2001-1,733-2,284551 2002-518-751233 2003124166-42 20042,0401,893147 20052,5292,343186 20062,0911,882209 20071,146858288 2008-3,548-3,728180 2009-5,039-4,965-74 20101,0221,238-216 20112,0582,370-312 20122,1862,253-67 20132,2992,366-67 20142,9912,864127 20152,71732,563150 20162,3312,124207 20172,1152,03580 20182,2862,159127 20191,9861,771215 2020-9,274-8,199-1,048 20217,2336,837396 20224,5554,256299 20232,5941,860734 20242,0121,559453 202561017661-1561 111 Months through November.
The bad news is the job market has stalled.  The BLS noted in December:

"Total nonfarm payroll employment ... has shown little net change since April."

Fed Chair Powell noted at the recent FOMC press conference that the economy might have lost an average of 20,000 jobs per month over that period.

Click on graph for larger image.

And more bad news - for job growth - is that the labor force will grow slowly in 2026!
This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.  
It appears that population growth will be slow in 2026 (births minus deaths plus net immigration) and the overall participation rate will decline due to demographics.  That suggests that labor force will grow slowly.  My sense is the economy will not lose jobs in 2026, but it is possible.
So, my forecast is for gains of around 0.6 to 1.0 million jobs in 2026.  This might be an even slower year for job growth than 2025!   
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

• Question #3 for 2026: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?

• Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

• Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

• Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

• Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

• Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

• Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

• Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 4.6% in November, up from 4.2% in November 2024.   Currently the FOMC is projecting the unemployment rate will decrease to the 4.3% to 4.4% range in Q4 2026.  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?
Click on graph for larger image.

The unemployment rate is from the household survey (CPS), and the rate increased in November to 4.6%, up from 4.2% in November 2024.  An unemployment rate of 4.6% over the next few months might suggest an employment recession according to the Sahm rule.

Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question).
"Uncertainty" was the key economic word for 2025, and probably for 2026 too.  There is significant uncertainty in the labor market with signs of weak hiring and concerns that AI will impact job growth.  Sometimes an employment recession continues as some employed individuals become cautious.  At the same time, we should see some economic boost from fiscal policy in 2026.
It appears that the participation rate will decline in 2026 based on demographics and that population growth will be slow due to less net migration.  That suggests that the labor force will grow slowly in 2026. So even if job growth stays slow in 2026 (next question), the unemployment rate might stabilize or even decline.
However, my guess is the unemployment rate will be in the mid-to-high 4% range in December 2026.  
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

• Question #3 for 2026: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?

• Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

• Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

• Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

• Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

• Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

• Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

• Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• The NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

4) Participation Rate: In November 2025, the overall participation rate was at 62.5%, unchanged year-over-year from 62.5% in November 2024, and below the pre-pandemic level of 63.3% in February 2020. Long term, the BLS is projecting the overall participation rate will decline to 61.1% by 2034 due to demographics. What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

The overall labor force participation rate is the percentage of the working age population (16 + years old) in the labor force.   A large portion of the decline in the participation rate since 2000 was due to demographics and long-term trends.

The Labor Force Participation Rate in November 2025 was at 62.5% (red), down from the pre-pandemic level of 63.3% in February 2020, and up from the pandemic low of 60.2% in April 2020. (Blue is the employment population ratio).
From February 2020 to April 2020, 12 million people had left the labor force due to the pandemic.   By November 2025, the labor force was about 4 million higher than the pre-pandemic high.  
Population growth had been weak in the 2010s, but picked up over the last few years, primarily due to more immigration.   However, net immigration slowed in late 2024 and slowed sharply in 2025.
The second graph shows the participation rate for "prime age" workers (25 to 54 years old). The 25 to 54 participation rate was at 83.8% in November 2025 Red), above the pre-pandemic level of 83.0% - and near the all time high of 84.6% in 1999.  This suggests there are very few prime age workers that will return to the labor force.
This means demographics will be the key driver of the participation rate in 2026 (barring some unseen event).  Demographics will be pushing the participation rate down over the next decade, so, my guess is the participation rate will decline by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points over the next year to around 62.3% in December 2026.
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

• Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

• Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

• Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

• Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

• Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

• Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

• Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.19% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in November.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.0% in November, down from up 1.1% YoY in October. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in November is a new cycle low. ...

As of November, 19 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.9%), Montana (-3.2%), and Florida (-2.8%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 140 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

A third of the cities on the list are in Florida.

There is much more in the article!

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 199,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 218,750.