Elon Musk Unveils Grok Update After Controversial Posts By The AI Chatbot

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tech billionaire Elon Musk on Wednesday unveiled a new update to his Grok AI chatbot, a day after it posted controversial content across social media platform X.

Elon Musk looks on during a news conference in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025. Allison Robbert/AFP via Getty Images

Earlier this week, Grok 3 made allegedly anti-Semitic comments, cited what appeared to be false information about an X user in connection with the recent deadly floods in Texas, made statements praising Adolf Hitler, and at one point, described itself as “MechaHitler,” causing the term to trend on X on Tuesday.

Musk’s xAI company, which develops the chatbot, released a statement Tuesday on the Grok account, saying it is “actively working to remove the inappropriate posts” and has “taken action to ban hate speech before Grok posts on X.”

“Grok 4 is the first time, in my experience, that an AI has been able to solve difficult, real-world engineering questions where the answers cannot be found anywhere on the Internet or in books. And it will get much better,” Musk wrote in a post on Thursday.

In a livestreamed event, Musk also touted the capabilities of the latest Grok update, calling Grok 4 “the smartest AI in the world.”

“It really is remarkable to see the advancement of artificial intelligence, how quickly it is evolving,” he said. “I would expect Grok to discover new technologies that are actually useful no later than next year, and maybe end of this year. And it might discover new physics next year.”

Responding to the controversy over the recent posts, Musk said that the comments posted by Grok 3 earlier in the week were because the chatbot was “too compliant to user prompts. Too eager to please and be manipulated.”

“That is being addressed,” Musk wrote in a July 9 post on X.

Musk last month promised to upgrade Grok, suggesting there was “far too much garbage in any foundation model trained on uncorrected data.”

The announcement from Musk follows high-profile AI advancements that were released by Google, OpenAI, and other tech companies in recent months. Big tech companies have been spending heavily on AI as they view the new technology as a major growth engine, while slashing costs elsewhere to safeguard profits.

Some current and former employees at OpenAI and Google warned in an open letter that “serious risks” could be posed by AI and called for greater protections. The letter warned that AI could lead to “the further entrenchment of existing inequalities, to manipulation and misinformation, to the loss of control of autonomous AI systems potentially resulting in human extinction.”

During the Grok 4 launch, Musk briefly referred to AI safety and said that he wants Grok to be “maximally truth-seeking.”

On Wednesday, X CEO Linda Yaccarino stepped down from the company, though there was no known connection between her decision and the content posted by Grok. She did not refer to the Grok controversy in her farewell statement, posted to her account.

“I’m incredibly proud of the X team - the historic business turn around we have accomplished together has been nothing short of remarkable,” she wrote.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 14:05

Elon Musk Unveils Grok Update After Controversial Posts By The AI Chatbot

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tech billionaire Elon Musk on Wednesday unveiled a new update to his Grok AI chatbot, a day after it posted controversial content across social media platform X.

Elon Musk looks on during a news conference in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025. Allison Robbert/AFP via Getty Images

Earlier this week, Grok 3 made allegedly anti-Semitic comments, cited what appeared to be false information about an X user in connection with the recent deadly floods in Texas, made statements praising Adolf Hitler, and at one point, described itself as “MechaHitler,” causing the term to trend on X on Tuesday.

Musk’s xAI company, which develops the chatbot, released a statement Tuesday on the Grok account, saying it is “actively working to remove the inappropriate posts” and has “taken action to ban hate speech before Grok posts on X.”

“Grok 4 is the first time, in my experience, that an AI has been able to solve difficult, real-world engineering questions where the answers cannot be found anywhere on the Internet or in books. And it will get much better,” Musk wrote in a post on Thursday.

In a livestreamed event, Musk also touted the capabilities of the latest Grok update, calling Grok 4 “the smartest AI in the world.”

“It really is remarkable to see the advancement of artificial intelligence, how quickly it is evolving,” he said. “I would expect Grok to discover new technologies that are actually useful no later than next year, and maybe end of this year. And it might discover new physics next year.”

Responding to the controversy over the recent posts, Musk said that the comments posted by Grok 3 earlier in the week were because the chatbot was “too compliant to user prompts. Too eager to please and be manipulated.”

“That is being addressed,” Musk wrote in a July 9 post on X.

Musk last month promised to upgrade Grok, suggesting there was “far too much garbage in any foundation model trained on uncorrected data.”

The announcement from Musk follows high-profile AI advancements that were released by Google, OpenAI, and other tech companies in recent months. Big tech companies have been spending heavily on AI as they view the new technology as a major growth engine, while slashing costs elsewhere to safeguard profits.

Some current and former employees at OpenAI and Google warned in an open letter that “serious risks” could be posed by AI and called for greater protections. The letter warned that AI could lead to “the further entrenchment of existing inequalities, to manipulation and misinformation, to the loss of control of autonomous AI systems potentially resulting in human extinction.”

During the Grok 4 launch, Musk briefly referred to AI safety and said that he wants Grok to be “maximally truth-seeking.”

On Wednesday, X CEO Linda Yaccarino stepped down from the company, though there was no known connection between her decision and the content posted by Grok. She did not refer to the Grok controversy in her farewell statement, posted to her account.

“I’m incredibly proud of the X team - the historic business turn around we have accomplished together has been nothing short of remarkable,” she wrote.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 14:05

From the Federal Reserve: The July 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

The July 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the second quarter of 2025.

Regarding loans to businesses over the second quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes. Furthermore, banks generally reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial real estate (CRE) loans.

For loans to households, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and weaker demand for residential mortgage loans, on balance. In addition, banks reported tighter lending standards and stronger demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). For consumer loans, standards tightened for credit card loans and remained basically unchanged for auto and other consumer loans. Meanwhile, demand weakened for credit card and other consumer loans and strengthened for auto loans.

The July SLOOS included a set of special questions inquiring about the current level of lending standards relative to the midpoint of the range over which banks’ standards have varied since 2005. Banks reported that, on balance, levels of standards are currently on the tighter end of the range for all loan categories. Compared with the July 2024 survey, banks reported easier levels of standards for most loan categories except residential real estate (RRE) loans, for which levels of standards were comparable with July 2024.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.

This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021.
The left graph is from 1990 to 2014.  The right graph is from 2015 to Q1 2025.
Only demand for HELOCs was reported as stronger.

Tom Lee's BitMine Holdings Top $3 Billion In Largest Global Ethereum Treasury Strategy

Aside from Friday's sudden net outflow, the month of Ethereum's tenth anniversary was celebrated by an almost unstoppable wave of net inflows into ETFs...

And, perhaps even more notably, an ongoing demand from Altcoin Treasury Strategy companies is also gaining momentum with Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) said its ether holdings have climbed to about 833,000 tokens currently worth more than $2.9 billion, making the Tom Lee–backed company the world’s largest public holder of ETH.

Source: The Block

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who is now the Chairman of BitMine’s board of directors, says the firm is pushing to acquire 5% of the circulating supply of Ethereum, which would be about 6,035,480 ETH.

“BitMine moved with lightning speed in its pursuit of the ‘alchemy of 5%’ of ETH growing our ETH holdings to over 833,000 from zero 35 days ago.

We have separated ourselves among crypto treasury peers by both the velocity of raising crypto NAV per share and by the high liquidity of our stock.”

Ethereum is surging higher this morning on the heels of this news...

Continuing its recent strong outperformance trend over bitcoin...

As a reminder, Standard Chartered forecasts Ethereum Treasury holdings to top 10% of supply:

For ETH this is likely to happen more quickly, as the broader concept of corporate holdings of digital assets is already accepted.

Publicly listed Bitcoin mining company, BitMine Immersion Tech (BMNR), is currently the largest Ether treasury firm, holding 0.5% of the circulating ETH supply.

If BMNR can achieve its goal of increasing its ETH holdings to 5% of the total in circulation, then it is fair to assume that ETH treasury companies as a whole will end up holding more than 10% of all ETH in circulation. This would be a 10x increase from today’s corporate treasury holdings.

Ether-focused treasury firms have more growth potential compared to Bitcoin treasury firms from a “regulatory arbitrage perspective,” according to Standard Chartered.

"...this buying of digital assets by corporates makes sense due to inefficiencies in financial markets, mostly stemming from regulation.

Specifically, restrictions on investor access to the asset class, which remain significant in a large number of jurisdictions, mean that investors seek alternative vehicles (in this case publicly listed companies) through which to gain exposure to the underlying asset.

As a result, these companies’ market cap tends to trade above the net asset value (NAV) of the assets held, at a so-called positive NAV multiple."

Ether treasury firms can “capture both staking rewards and decentralised finance (DeFi) leverage opportunities, which US Ethereum ETFs currently cannot.”

In terms of next potential catalysts, we will be looking at the upcoming Fusaka protocol upgrade in  Q4’25.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:45

Tom Lee's BitMine Holdings Top $3 Billion In Largest Global Ethereum Treasury Strategy

Aside from Friday's sudden net outflow, the month of Ethereum's tenth anniversary was celebrated by an almost unstoppable wave of net inflows into ETFs...

And, perhaps even more notably, an ongoing demand from Altcoin Treasury Strategy companies is also gaining momentum with Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) said its ether holdings have climbed to about 833,000 tokens currently worth more than $2.9 billion, making the Tom Lee–backed company the world’s largest public holder of ETH.

Source: The Block

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who is now the Chairman of BitMine’s board of directors, says the firm is pushing to acquire 5% of the circulating supply of Ethereum, which would be about 6,035,480 ETH.

“BitMine moved with lightning speed in its pursuit of the ‘alchemy of 5%’ of ETH growing our ETH holdings to over 833,000 from zero 35 days ago.

We have separated ourselves among crypto treasury peers by both the velocity of raising crypto NAV per share and by the high liquidity of our stock.”

Ethereum is surging higher this morning on the heels of this news...

Continuing its recent strong outperformance trend over bitcoin...

As a reminder, Standard Chartered forecasts Ethereum Treasury holdings to top 10% of supply:

For ETH this is likely to happen more quickly, as the broader concept of corporate holdings of digital assets is already accepted.

Publicly listed Bitcoin mining company, BitMine Immersion Tech (BMNR), is currently the largest Ether treasury firm, holding 0.5% of the circulating ETH supply.

If BMNR can achieve its goal of increasing its ETH holdings to 5% of the total in circulation, then it is fair to assume that ETH treasury companies as a whole will end up holding more than 10% of all ETH in circulation. This would be a 10x increase from today’s corporate treasury holdings.

Ether-focused treasury firms have more growth potential compared to Bitcoin treasury firms from a “regulatory arbitrage perspective,” according to Standard Chartered.

"...this buying of digital assets by corporates makes sense due to inefficiencies in financial markets, mostly stemming from regulation.

Specifically, restrictions on investor access to the asset class, which remain significant in a large number of jurisdictions, mean that investors seek alternative vehicles (in this case publicly listed companies) through which to gain exposure to the underlying asset.

As a result, these companies’ market cap tends to trade above the net asset value (NAV) of the assets held, at a so-called positive NAV multiple."

Ether treasury firms can “capture both staking rewards and decentralised finance (DeFi) leverage opportunities, which US Ethereum ETFs currently cannot.”

In terms of next potential catalysts, we will be looking at the upcoming Fusaka protocol upgrade in  Q4’25.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:45

Tom Lee's BitMine Holdings Top $3 Billion In Largest Global Ethereum Treasury Strategy

Aside from Friday's sudden net outflow, the month of Ethereum's tenth anniversary was celebrated by an almost unstoppable wave of net inflows into ETFs...

And, perhaps even more notably, an ongoing demand from Altcoin Treasury Strategy companies is also gaining momentum with Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) said its ether holdings have climbed to about 833,000 tokens currently worth more than $2.9 billion, making the Tom Lee–backed company the world’s largest public holder of ETH.

Source: The Block

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who is now the Chairman of BitMine’s board of directors, says the firm is pushing to acquire 5% of the circulating supply of Ethereum, which would be about 6,035,480 ETH.

“BitMine moved with lightning speed in its pursuit of the ‘alchemy of 5%’ of ETH growing our ETH holdings to over 833,000 from zero 35 days ago.

We have separated ourselves among crypto treasury peers by both the velocity of raising crypto NAV per share and by the high liquidity of our stock.”

Ethereum is surging higher this morning on the heels of this news...

Continuing its recent strong outperformance trend over bitcoin...

As a reminder, Standard Chartered forecasts Ethereum Treasury holdings to top 10% of supply:

For ETH this is likely to happen more quickly, as the broader concept of corporate holdings of digital assets is already accepted.

Publicly listed Bitcoin mining company, BitMine Immersion Tech (BMNR), is currently the largest Ether treasury firm, holding 0.5% of the circulating ETH supply.

If BMNR can achieve its goal of increasing its ETH holdings to 5% of the total in circulation, then it is fair to assume that ETH treasury companies as a whole will end up holding more than 10% of all ETH in circulation. This would be a 10x increase from today’s corporate treasury holdings.

Ether-focused treasury firms have more growth potential compared to Bitcoin treasury firms from a “regulatory arbitrage perspective,” according to Standard Chartered.

"...this buying of digital assets by corporates makes sense due to inefficiencies in financial markets, mostly stemming from regulation.

Specifically, restrictions on investor access to the asset class, which remain significant in a large number of jurisdictions, mean that investors seek alternative vehicles (in this case publicly listed companies) through which to gain exposure to the underlying asset.

As a result, these companies’ market cap tends to trade above the net asset value (NAV) of the assets held, at a so-called positive NAV multiple."

Ether treasury firms can “capture both staking rewards and decentralised finance (DeFi) leverage opportunities, which US Ethereum ETFs currently cannot.”

In terms of next potential catalysts, we will be looking at the upcoming Fusaka protocol upgrade in  Q4’25.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:45

EPA's Lee Zeldin Defends Proposal To Repeal Climate Regulation

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin on Sunday defended plans to repeal the agency’s Obama-era “endangerment findings“ that link motor vehicle emissions to changes in the climate and underpin related regulations.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin attends a Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission Event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 22, 2025. Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Zeldin told CNN’s “State of the Union” that to reach the 2009 endangerment findings, officials “relied on the most pessimistic views of the science.”

He added that a lot of those views did not pan out and that his proposals “rely on 2025 facts, as opposed to 2009 bad assumptions.”

On July 29, Zeldin proposed repealing the findings, saying during a visit to an auto dealership in Indiana that doing so would “end 16 years of uncertainty for automakers and American consumers.”

According to the EPA, if the proposal goes ahead, it would repeal $1 trillion in regulations, saving $54 billion annually.

The plans followed Zeldin’s announcement in June that his administration would start relaxing Clean Power Plant greenhouse gas and mercury emission regulations, which were imposed under the Biden and Obama administrations.

These regulations would have required power plants to “capture” 40 percent of their emissions by 2032 and increase that to 90 percent by 2039, which Zeldin said would cost coal- and gas-fired plants upward of $1 billion a year.

Two Findings

According to the EPA’s website, the agency relied on two findings—signed in December 2009 under a section of the Clean Air Act—to impose regulations on greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.

The first finding said “current and projected concentrations” of six well-mixed greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—in the atmosphere threatened public health and welfare.

The second found that the combined emissions from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contributed to greenhouse gas pollution.

“These findings do not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities,” the EPA stated.

“However, this action was a prerequisite for implementing greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.”

Zeldin told “State of the Nation” that previous government officials had made “a lot of mental leaps” in order to justify the findings.

“They say carbon dioxide, when mixed with a whole bunch of other well-mixed gases, in some cases not even emitted from mobile sources ... contributes to global climate change. It doesn’t say causes, [it says] ‘contributes.’ How much, they don’t say, but it’s north of zero—not much more than zero,” Zeldin said.

Vague Language

Zeldin added that the EPA could not use vague language in statutes to make mandates, and that regulating “mobile sources” of pollution, such as automobiles, was a matter that would ultimately need to be addressed by Congress.

“The power comes from the law. I don’t get to just make up the law,” he said.

Zeldin added that for the United States to become the AI capital of the world, unleash energy dominance, bring down energy costs, and protect jobs, “we are not going to regulate out of existence entire sectors of our economy, and we are not going to interpret law in whichever vague, creative way allows us to give ourselves maximum power.”

He said the agency’s plan is still just a proposal at this stage and will be open for public comment, with a final decision to follow after the comment period ends.

Environmental groups have criticized the plans.

The Environmental Defense Fund said on X last month that the proposal would “put millions in harm’s way,” calling it the administration’s “most environmentally destructive action yet.”

The organization said that the EPA’s actions would lead to more pollution, stronger hurricanes, more powerful floods, and more frequent fires, as well as causing higher insurance and increasing fuel costs for Americans.

T.J. Muscaro and Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:25

EPA's Lee Zeldin Defends Proposal To Repeal Climate Regulation

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin on Sunday defended plans to repeal the agency’s Obama-era “endangerment findings“ that link motor vehicle emissions to changes in the climate and underpin related regulations.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin attends a Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission Event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 22, 2025. Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Zeldin told CNN’s “State of the Union” that to reach the 2009 endangerment findings, officials “relied on the most pessimistic views of the science.”

He added that a lot of those views did not pan out and that his proposals “rely on 2025 facts, as opposed to 2009 bad assumptions.”

On July 29, Zeldin proposed repealing the findings, saying during a visit to an auto dealership in Indiana that doing so would “end 16 years of uncertainty for automakers and American consumers.”

According to the EPA, if the proposal goes ahead, it would repeal $1 trillion in regulations, saving $54 billion annually.

The plans followed Zeldin’s announcement in June that his administration would start relaxing Clean Power Plant greenhouse gas and mercury emission regulations, which were imposed under the Biden and Obama administrations.

These regulations would have required power plants to “capture” 40 percent of their emissions by 2032 and increase that to 90 percent by 2039, which Zeldin said would cost coal- and gas-fired plants upward of $1 billion a year.

Two Findings

According to the EPA’s website, the agency relied on two findings—signed in December 2009 under a section of the Clean Air Act—to impose regulations on greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.

The first finding said “current and projected concentrations” of six well-mixed greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—in the atmosphere threatened public health and welfare.

The second found that the combined emissions from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contributed to greenhouse gas pollution.

“These findings do not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities,” the EPA stated.

“However, this action was a prerequisite for implementing greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.”

Zeldin told “State of the Nation” that previous government officials had made “a lot of mental leaps” in order to justify the findings.

“They say carbon dioxide, when mixed with a whole bunch of other well-mixed gases, in some cases not even emitted from mobile sources ... contributes to global climate change. It doesn’t say causes, [it says] ‘contributes.’ How much, they don’t say, but it’s north of zero—not much more than zero,” Zeldin said.

Vague Language

Zeldin added that the EPA could not use vague language in statutes to make mandates, and that regulating “mobile sources” of pollution, such as automobiles, was a matter that would ultimately need to be addressed by Congress.

“The power comes from the law. I don’t get to just make up the law,” he said.

Zeldin added that for the United States to become the AI capital of the world, unleash energy dominance, bring down energy costs, and protect jobs, “we are not going to regulate out of existence entire sectors of our economy, and we are not going to interpret law in whichever vague, creative way allows us to give ourselves maximum power.”

He said the agency’s plan is still just a proposal at this stage and will be open for public comment, with a final decision to follow after the comment period ends.

Environmental groups have criticized the plans.

The Environmental Defense Fund said on X last month that the proposal would “put millions in harm’s way,” calling it the administration’s “most environmentally destructive action yet.”

The organization said that the EPA’s actions would lead to more pollution, stronger hurricanes, more powerful floods, and more frequent fires, as well as causing higher insurance and increasing fuel costs for Americans.

T.J. Muscaro and Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:25

EPA's Lee Zeldin Defends Proposal To Repeal Climate Regulation

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin on Sunday defended plans to repeal the agency’s Obama-era “endangerment findings“ that link motor vehicle emissions to changes in the climate and underpin related regulations.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin attends a Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission Event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 22, 2025. Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Zeldin told CNN’s “State of the Union” that to reach the 2009 endangerment findings, officials “relied on the most pessimistic views of the science.”

He added that a lot of those views did not pan out and that his proposals “rely on 2025 facts, as opposed to 2009 bad assumptions.”

On July 29, Zeldin proposed repealing the findings, saying during a visit to an auto dealership in Indiana that doing so would “end 16 years of uncertainty for automakers and American consumers.”

According to the EPA, if the proposal goes ahead, it would repeal $1 trillion in regulations, saving $54 billion annually.

The plans followed Zeldin’s announcement in June that his administration would start relaxing Clean Power Plant greenhouse gas and mercury emission regulations, which were imposed under the Biden and Obama administrations.

These regulations would have required power plants to “capture” 40 percent of their emissions by 2032 and increase that to 90 percent by 2039, which Zeldin said would cost coal- and gas-fired plants upward of $1 billion a year.

Two Findings

According to the EPA’s website, the agency relied on two findings—signed in December 2009 under a section of the Clean Air Act—to impose regulations on greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.

The first finding said “current and projected concentrations” of six well-mixed greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—in the atmosphere threatened public health and welfare.

The second found that the combined emissions from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contributed to greenhouse gas pollution.

“These findings do not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities,” the EPA stated.

“However, this action was a prerequisite for implementing greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.”

Zeldin told “State of the Nation” that previous government officials had made “a lot of mental leaps” in order to justify the findings.

“They say carbon dioxide, when mixed with a whole bunch of other well-mixed gases, in some cases not even emitted from mobile sources ... contributes to global climate change. It doesn’t say causes, [it says] ‘contributes.’ How much, they don’t say, but it’s north of zero—not much more than zero,” Zeldin said.

Vague Language

Zeldin added that the EPA could not use vague language in statutes to make mandates, and that regulating “mobile sources” of pollution, such as automobiles, was a matter that would ultimately need to be addressed by Congress.

“The power comes from the law. I don’t get to just make up the law,” he said.

Zeldin added that for the United States to become the AI capital of the world, unleash energy dominance, bring down energy costs, and protect jobs, “we are not going to regulate out of existence entire sectors of our economy, and we are not going to interpret law in whichever vague, creative way allows us to give ourselves maximum power.”

He said the agency’s plan is still just a proposal at this stage and will be open for public comment, with a final decision to follow after the comment period ends.

Environmental groups have criticized the plans.

The Environmental Defense Fund said on X last month that the proposal would “put millions in harm’s way,” calling it the administration’s “most environmentally destructive action yet.”

The organization said that the EPA’s actions would lead to more pollution, stronger hurricanes, more powerful floods, and more frequent fires, as well as causing higher insurance and increasing fuel costs for Americans.

T.J. Muscaro and Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:25

Stripper Index Doesn't Apply To Bitcoin, OnlyFans Models Say

The "stripper index” - an anecdotal measurement that connects economic health with spending on adult entertainment - appears unable to predict Bitcoin’s price.

Only indicator that actually matters: if this breaks support, recession guaranteed pic.twitter.com/BgNlUv0grZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 8, 2025

As CoinTelegraph reports, Kodi Rose (guessing here, but that's probably not her real name), a self-described “dollar stripper” and adult content creator, alluded to these frontline insights in a recent viral TikTok video, saying she believes the economy is already in a recession as fewer customers are asking where they can “hit the slopes,” a social code for cocaine.

The digital equivalent of exotic dancers is adult content creators, and OnlyFans dominates the space. On the platform, users subscribe to creators and tip for extras.

Turns out the stripper index doesn’t really work for Bitcoin. A 57-month revenue analysis of one mid-tier OnlyFans creator shows a negative correlation with Bitcoin’s price, despite the two moving in the same direction more than half the time.

To understand whether creators’ income holds any predictive value for Bitcoin, Cointelegraph spoke to veterans in the adult entertainment industry who’ve weathered both its ups and downs alongside crypto’s hype cycles.

Bitcoin followed OnlyFans model’s earnings 55% of the time

The stripper index is backed by the assumption that consumers will cut down on non-essential spending during economic downturns.

“Sex work is considered a ‘non-essential’ service — it’s entertainment, a luxury. Therefore, it’s one of the first expenses people cut when their financial situation becomes uncertain or they anticipate economic instability,” Catherine De Noire, an OnlyFans creator and brothel manager, told Cointelegraph. 

Alana Nguyen, who performs on OnlyFans under the stage name “Nerdy Dancing,” shared her monthly earnings with Cointelegraph since moving online after the 2020 pandemic shut down of the physical world, including strip clubs. So far, she hasn’t noticed any clear correlation between crypto prices and subscriber behavior.

Nguyen’s revenue before taxes and expenses, but after a 20% cut to OnlyFans. Source: Nerdy Dancing

“Even if there are global economic conditions affecting overall spending, I don’t think crypto prices correlate strongly with my earnings,” Nguyen told Cointelegraph.

A Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.335 over 57 months suggests a moderately negative linear relationship between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price.

A 10-month rolling Pearson correlation between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price showed considerable volatility over time. The highest correlation was observed in the 10-month period ending July 2021, which were the first months of Nguyen’s business. 

Out of 48 total calculations, the rolling correlation coefficient was evenly split, with 24 positive and 24 negative values, suggesting the relationship between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price fluctuated without a consistent pattern. The rolling correlation rarely went above 0.5 or below -0.5, indicating low correlation.

Each 10-month window contains a small sample size, so these results should be viewed as indicative rather than statistically conclusive.

In a separate measurement, Cointelegraph analyzed whether or not Nguyen’s earnings rose when Bitcoin’s monthly average rose compared to the previous month and when her revenue dropped as Bitcoin dropped. In this measurement, the two moved toward the same direction almost half the time, with 55% accuracy over 57 months.

“I’ve always thought concepts like the stripper index are only useful in terms of aggregate spending. Even in the strip club, my earnings aren’t necessarily tied to how the club is doing overall. It’s more about my personal selling ability that day — whether regulars come in or I get lucky with a big spender,” Nguyen said.

OnlyFans is notorious for opaque financial reporting. One website, OnlyGuider, claims to have analyzed the transaction behavior of over 1 million subscribers and found that the top 0.1% of creators earn the majority of the platform’s revenue.

According to data from OnlyGuider shared with Cointelegraph, the top 0.1% of creators earned $2,035,331 in April 2025, when Bitcoin’s average price was $94,207. As Bitcoin prices continued to rise in May and June, earnings for the top 0.1% also increased, reaching $2,038,972 in May and $2,052,502 in June.

Most OnlyFans subscribers spend their money on top models. Source: OnlyGuider Bitcoin’s relationship with OnlyFans and adult entertainment

Crypto was once seen as an alternative tool for facilitating payments to adult content creators. Pornhub, one of the industry’s largest platforms, began accepting cryptocurrency as early as 2018. OnlyFans, however, has taken a different path and does not offer crypto as a payment method.

“Crypto payments are not very popular in our brothel. Most clients prefer cash because it leaves no trace. Only a very small number of the women working with us accept crypto payments, and even then, the total number of transactions per year is extremely low,” De Noire said. 

“We haven’t noticed any significant change in spending behavior that corresponds with crypto fluctuations. Whether Bitcoin or Ethereum is performing well or not doesn’t seem to have a direct effect on how much our clients are willing to spend,” she added.

Erotic film star Allie Eve Knox has stronger ties to the crypto community as an advocate for integrating cryptocurrency into the adult industry and through her involvement with SpankChain, which launched initiatives like SpankPay, a crypto payment option for adult creators that has since been discontinued. 

Knox, who offers her content on several platforms, including OnlyFans, agreed that the price of Bitcoin doesn’t appear to have a meaningful impact on her earnings.

“Anytime crypto hits an all-time high, our traffic actually slows,” Knox told Cointelegraph.

“People want to see the biggest number in their account and screenshot it. It’s not typical for them to go passing out money to get their wanks.”

Knox has been in the adult entertainment industry for 11 years and says she’s experienced 36 account closures over her career — from bank accounts to Cash App and PayPal. Crypto offered an alternative way to accept payments, but ironically, she claims she was de-banked even by crypto platforms.

“I showed a Showtime documentary crew how I could display my Coinbase QR code on camera, and viewers could pay me in Bitcoin or Ether. The day after it aired, Coinbase shut my account down.”

Modern payment options — whether crypto or digital banking — make transactions easier for both consumers and businesses. However, electronic methods still draw scrutiny from banks when used by sex workers. In brothels, clients often prefer cash, sometimes even leaving mid-session to withdraw money from an ATM, De Noire said.

“As an OnlyFans creator, however, I notice something a little bit similar. My subscribers generally have no issue using credit cards and trust the platform. Yet many of them still ask if they can pay via Bitcoin or other alternative methods,” she said.

“Since OF doesn’t allow payments outside the platform, I haven’t pursued this further, but it’s clear that even online clients are looking for more privacy and control over the data they share with financial institutions.”

Bitcoin’s honeymoon with OnlyFans models has passed

Web3 and adult content had their “good old days,” according to Knox, who says the non-fungible token (NFT) boom of 2021 opened up new income streams and gave creators more options to reach fans and spend their crypto earnings.

“Now, if a customer doesn’t already hold crypto, they have to move money from their bank, wait for it to clear into a wallet, maybe convert it, send it to a model, wait for confirmation and only then do they get the content,” she said.

Creators are also facing increasing barriers worldwide. Recently, China launched a nationwide crackdown on OnlyFans, while Sweden, a nation that’s politically and culturally very different from China, has imposed restrictions on purchasing adult content.

SpankPay cited a hostile regulatory climate as the reason for winding down its payment service. Source: SpankPay

De Noire cited sociologist Zygmunt Bauman to point out that in today’s society, consumers aren’t just trying to survive, but they prioritize enjoyment.

“When you see a lot of non-essential services like massages, fancy coffee, wellness retreats or even sex work being used regularly, it’s a sign that the society has enough money going around,” De Noire said.

While cryptocurrency was once hailed as a promising payment solution for adult content creators facing financial censorship, the reality is more complex. Despite pockets of overlap, such as simultaneous rises in Bitcoin prices and earnings among top OnlyFans creators, adult entertainers and their earnings have shown little correlation with Bitcoin’s price trends. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:00

Stripper Index Doesn't Apply To Bitcoin, OnlyFans Models Say

The "stripper index” - an anecdotal measurement that connects economic health with spending on adult entertainment - appears unable to predict Bitcoin’s price.

Only indicator that actually matters: if this breaks support, recession guaranteed pic.twitter.com/BgNlUv0grZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 8, 2025

As CoinTelegraph reports, Kodi Rose (guessing here, but that's probably not her real name), a self-described “dollar stripper” and adult content creator, alluded to these frontline insights in a recent viral TikTok video, saying she believes the economy is already in a recession as fewer customers are asking where they can “hit the slopes,” a social code for cocaine.

The digital equivalent of exotic dancers is adult content creators, and OnlyFans dominates the space. On the platform, users subscribe to creators and tip for extras.

Turns out the stripper index doesn’t really work for Bitcoin. A 57-month revenue analysis of one mid-tier OnlyFans creator shows a negative correlation with Bitcoin’s price, despite the two moving in the same direction more than half the time.

To understand whether creators’ income holds any predictive value for Bitcoin, Cointelegraph spoke to veterans in the adult entertainment industry who’ve weathered both its ups and downs alongside crypto’s hype cycles.

Bitcoin followed OnlyFans model’s earnings 55% of the time

The stripper index is backed by the assumption that consumers will cut down on non-essential spending during economic downturns.

“Sex work is considered a ‘non-essential’ service — it’s entertainment, a luxury. Therefore, it’s one of the first expenses people cut when their financial situation becomes uncertain or they anticipate economic instability,” Catherine De Noire, an OnlyFans creator and brothel manager, told Cointelegraph. 

Alana Nguyen, who performs on OnlyFans under the stage name “Nerdy Dancing,” shared her monthly earnings with Cointelegraph since moving online after the 2020 pandemic shut down of the physical world, including strip clubs. So far, she hasn’t noticed any clear correlation between crypto prices and subscriber behavior.

Nguyen’s revenue before taxes and expenses, but after a 20% cut to OnlyFans. Source: Nerdy Dancing

“Even if there are global economic conditions affecting overall spending, I don’t think crypto prices correlate strongly with my earnings,” Nguyen told Cointelegraph.

A Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.335 over 57 months suggests a moderately negative linear relationship between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price.

A 10-month rolling Pearson correlation between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price showed considerable volatility over time. The highest correlation was observed in the 10-month period ending July 2021, which were the first months of Nguyen’s business. 

Out of 48 total calculations, the rolling correlation coefficient was evenly split, with 24 positive and 24 negative values, suggesting the relationship between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price fluctuated without a consistent pattern. The rolling correlation rarely went above 0.5 or below -0.5, indicating low correlation.

Each 10-month window contains a small sample size, so these results should be viewed as indicative rather than statistically conclusive.

In a separate measurement, Cointelegraph analyzed whether or not Nguyen’s earnings rose when Bitcoin’s monthly average rose compared to the previous month and when her revenue dropped as Bitcoin dropped. In this measurement, the two moved toward the same direction almost half the time, with 55% accuracy over 57 months.

“I’ve always thought concepts like the stripper index are only useful in terms of aggregate spending. Even in the strip club, my earnings aren’t necessarily tied to how the club is doing overall. It’s more about my personal selling ability that day — whether regulars come in or I get lucky with a big spender,” Nguyen said.

OnlyFans is notorious for opaque financial reporting. One website, OnlyGuider, claims to have analyzed the transaction behavior of over 1 million subscribers and found that the top 0.1% of creators earn the majority of the platform’s revenue.

According to data from OnlyGuider shared with Cointelegraph, the top 0.1% of creators earned $2,035,331 in April 2025, when Bitcoin’s average price was $94,207. As Bitcoin prices continued to rise in May and June, earnings for the top 0.1% also increased, reaching $2,038,972 in May and $2,052,502 in June.

Most OnlyFans subscribers spend their money on top models. Source: OnlyGuider Bitcoin’s relationship with OnlyFans and adult entertainment

Crypto was once seen as an alternative tool for facilitating payments to adult content creators. Pornhub, one of the industry’s largest platforms, began accepting cryptocurrency as early as 2018. OnlyFans, however, has taken a different path and does not offer crypto as a payment method.

“Crypto payments are not very popular in our brothel. Most clients prefer cash because it leaves no trace. Only a very small number of the women working with us accept crypto payments, and even then, the total number of transactions per year is extremely low,” De Noire said. 

“We haven’t noticed any significant change in spending behavior that corresponds with crypto fluctuations. Whether Bitcoin or Ethereum is performing well or not doesn’t seem to have a direct effect on how much our clients are willing to spend,” she added.

Erotic film star Allie Eve Knox has stronger ties to the crypto community as an advocate for integrating cryptocurrency into the adult industry and through her involvement with SpankChain, which launched initiatives like SpankPay, a crypto payment option for adult creators that has since been discontinued. 

Knox, who offers her content on several platforms, including OnlyFans, agreed that the price of Bitcoin doesn’t appear to have a meaningful impact on her earnings.

“Anytime crypto hits an all-time high, our traffic actually slows,” Knox told Cointelegraph.

“People want to see the biggest number in their account and screenshot it. It’s not typical for them to go passing out money to get their wanks.”

Knox has been in the adult entertainment industry for 11 years and says she’s experienced 36 account closures over her career — from bank accounts to Cash App and PayPal. Crypto offered an alternative way to accept payments, but ironically, she claims she was de-banked even by crypto platforms.

“I showed a Showtime documentary crew how I could display my Coinbase QR code on camera, and viewers could pay me in Bitcoin or Ether. The day after it aired, Coinbase shut my account down.”

Modern payment options — whether crypto or digital banking — make transactions easier for both consumers and businesses. However, electronic methods still draw scrutiny from banks when used by sex workers. In brothels, clients often prefer cash, sometimes even leaving mid-session to withdraw money from an ATM, De Noire said.

“As an OnlyFans creator, however, I notice something a little bit similar. My subscribers generally have no issue using credit cards and trust the platform. Yet many of them still ask if they can pay via Bitcoin or other alternative methods,” she said.

“Since OF doesn’t allow payments outside the platform, I haven’t pursued this further, but it’s clear that even online clients are looking for more privacy and control over the data they share with financial institutions.”

Bitcoin’s honeymoon with OnlyFans models has passed

Web3 and adult content had their “good old days,” according to Knox, who says the non-fungible token (NFT) boom of 2021 opened up new income streams and gave creators more options to reach fans and spend their crypto earnings.

“Now, if a customer doesn’t already hold crypto, they have to move money from their bank, wait for it to clear into a wallet, maybe convert it, send it to a model, wait for confirmation and only then do they get the content,” she said.

Creators are also facing increasing barriers worldwide. Recently, China launched a nationwide crackdown on OnlyFans, while Sweden, a nation that’s politically and culturally very different from China, has imposed restrictions on purchasing adult content.

SpankPay cited a hostile regulatory climate as the reason for winding down its payment service. Source: SpankPay

De Noire cited sociologist Zygmunt Bauman to point out that in today’s society, consumers aren’t just trying to survive, but they prioritize enjoyment.

“When you see a lot of non-essential services like massages, fancy coffee, wellness retreats or even sex work being used regularly, it’s a sign that the society has enough money going around,” De Noire said.

While cryptocurrency was once hailed as a promising payment solution for adult content creators facing financial censorship, the reality is more complex. Despite pockets of overlap, such as simultaneous rises in Bitcoin prices and earnings among top OnlyFans creators, adult entertainers and their earnings have shown little correlation with Bitcoin’s price trends. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:00

After Years Of Refusing Reforms, The CPB Accepts Institutional Death Over Political Dishonor

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

It is official. The Corporation for Public Broadcasting finally accepted death over balance.

This week, the CPB announced that, with the withdrawal of federal funding, it would cease operations by September 30, 2025: “Despite the extraordinary efforts of millions of Americans who called, wrote, and petitioned Congress to preserve federal funding for CPB, we now face the difficult reality of closing our operations.”

The autopsy for the CPB, however, will put this cause of death as a self-inflicted blow.

For almost 60 years, Republican Presidents and conservative politicians have complained about the overwhelming liberal bias at the CPB and its supported programs, particularly National Public Radio (NPR). For most of those years, the CPB could shrug off the complaints. The Democrats controlled one or both houses (or at least the White House). With the political left solidly behind the CPB, the corporation refused to carry out even modest reforms. It simply gave the stiff arm to every conservative effort to bring its programming back to the middle of the political spectrum.

Even in the face of a GOP-controlled Congress and a Republican president, the CPB was defiant in denying any bias. It suggested that decades of complaints from the right were nothing more than the fevered imagination of far-right activists.

For the record, I was not calling for the termination of funding of the CPB, which I thought could still be forced to reform itself. What I opposed was the continuation of funding for NPR as a state-subsidized media outlet. It was not the pronounced bias of NPR that I felt justified termination. This country should preserve a wall of separation between the government and the media, a view that even a former NPR CEO acknowledged recently as legitimate.

CPB is different. It funded a broader array of programming and could easily correct its course. For decades, all the CPB had to do is refocus on programming to appeal to the greatest cross section of the population and to decline to fund media programs like NPR that became more strident and partisan by the year. It seemed that the CPB was trapped within its own echo chambered existence.

On the left, the CPB was the hero institution standing up to social and political reactionaries. That is what CPB officials heard at cocktail parties and conferences. They heard little from the public outside of their core, narrow constituency. For individual administrators and board members, their status and success were tied to the very bias that was alienating most of America.

For them, the choice was clear between neutrality and nonexistence: they grabbed a hemlock-filled, NPR pledge mug and drank deeply.

They are not the only figures choosing death over social dishonor. Efforts to restore balance and neutrality at the Washington Post has led to a virtual revolt. Even after CEO William Lewis told staff that the newspaper was gushing readers and revenue, the staff refused to yield. He could not have put it more bluntly, telling them, “People are not reading your stuff.” In other words, they were writing for each other as readers were fleeing to other sources of news.

You would think that Washington Post writers would recognize that, if they wanted to be journalists, they would have to return to more neutral and objective reporting. It does not work that way. Many of these editors and writers had secured their very positions in rejecting neutrality and embracing advocacy journalism. By their own previously stated standards, a return to traditional journalism would be capitulation and cowardice. Thus, they would rather see the Post go insolvent than independent.

That takes us back to the CPB. The announcement of cessation was met with a chorus of wails and laments on the left. Yet, these are the same people who preferred this option to reforming the CPB to serve the greatest number of Americans.

NPR made the same choice. A few years ago, it was given the opportunity to select a new CEO who would represent a serious, centrist leadership for the failing news organization. Instead, the board doubled down on that very bias and selected Katherine Maher, who had a long history of inflammatory political attacks on conservatives and was the very embodiment of activism.

As late as a few months ago, CPB could have come forward with real reforms. Instead, PBS President Paula Kerger threatened legal action if Congress had the temerity to refuse to fund her organization. At the same time, she did nothing to distance herself from NPR, which was dragging down CPB like an anchor. Even as NPR’s Katherine Maher imploded before Congress, Kerger refused to budge.

The irony is that NPR is likely to survive in reduced form, appealing to a shrinking audience of predominantly white, affluent, liberal listeners in major cities.

Conversely, CPB is laying off its entire staff in a righteous, indignant huff. None of these people needed to lose their jobs if their leadership served their organization by listening to views beyond their own insular circle of enablers. The demise of the CPB now stands as the most impressive and unnecessary act of self-termination since the appearance of Judean People’s Front Crack Suicide Squad:

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 12:40

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2026?

A brief excerpt:

With house prices up low-single digits over the last year through mid-year, an interesting question is: How much will the Fannie & Freddie conforming loan limits (CLL) change for 2026? And how much will the FHA insured loan limits change?

First, there are different loan limits for various geographical areas. There are also different loan limits depending on the number of units (from 1 to 4 units). For example, currently the CLL is $806,500 for one-unit properties in most areas. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles County, the CLL is $1,209,750 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL).
...
Note that during periods when house prices decline, the CLL is not reduced. The CLL was at $417,000 from 2006 through 2016 and only increased slightly in 2017 as the house price index caught back up to the previous high reached during the housing bubble. This graph shows the CLL since 1979. The CLL was unchanged from 2006 though 2016.

We need the house price data through September 2025 to calculate the conforming loan limit for 2026. This quarterly data will be released in late November.

There is much more in the article.

Oil Jumps As Trump Threatens India With 'Substantial' Tariffs For Buying Russian Crude

President Trump switched his attention from the domestic jobs figures to the price of oil this morning with a Truth Social post that lambasts India for their dealings with Russia:

"India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits."

Then Trump made the threats:

They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.

Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT

And oil prices spiked on the news...

This commentary and action by President Trump comes shortlay afterDave DeCamp reported earlier via AntiWar.com, a senior advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling on the US to "strangle" the Russian economy by imposing tariffs on Moscow’s trading partners, though the US measures are unlikely to hurt Russia.

"The [Russian] economy, geared for war, cannot withstand the pressure and is holding on only through the sale of energy resources," said Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office. "It is possible to strangle the economy with secondary tariffs proposed in the USA."

Via TASS

President Trump has threatened to hit countries that are purchasing Russian oil with 100% tariffs, and a bill in the Senate would impose 500% tariffs on any country that "knowingly engages in the exchange of Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products."

Either tariff rate would have a significant impact on the US economy since China and India are major buyers of Russian oil. President Trump has already announced a 25% tariff on India and an unspecified “penalty” on the country over its trade with Russia. But Indian officials say they will continue buying Russian oil despite the US threats of further action.

In response to US threats to impose tariffs over the purchase of Russian oil, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Beijing would “take energy supply measures” based on China’s national interests.

“Tariff wars have no winners,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Gua Jiakum. “Coercion and pressuring cannot solve problems. China will firmly safeguard its own sovereignty, security, and development interests.”

Russia has also made clear that it’s not fazed by the US’s ultimatum to reach a deal to end the war in Ukraine by August 8 or face tariffs and other economic measures.

The deadline prompted a warning from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who said each US ultimatum “is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.”

India has indicated that it would continue buying oil from Russia despite threats by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Indian foreign ministry said its relationship with Russia was “steady and time-tested,” and should not be seen through the prism of a third country. —Associated Press

India to defy Trump’s threats and keep buying Russian oil, government sources say https://t.co/NljrJHMed8 pic.twitter.com/ItHCFb09Rz

— The Independent (@Independent) August 3, 2025

Trump responded to Medvedev’s comments by announcing the deployment of two nuclear submarines, a highly provocative move. “I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that,” he wrote on Truth Social on Friday. “Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.”

*  *  *

With all that said, one wonders if President Trump - strange as it may seem - has got the tap on the shoulder from 'Big Oil' explaining that they need oil prices higher (not 'high') for 'drill baby drill' to succeed.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 11:00

Key Events This Week: ISM, Trade Balance And More Earnings

Last week was by far the busiest of the year, with a perfect storm confluence of macro, earnings and central bank newsflow avalanche. Not surprisingly, this post-payrolls week is much quieter; among the US data releases that matter will be Tuesday’s ISM report (forecast at 51.2 versus 50.8 previously), particularly its employment component, and Thursday’s initial jobless claims (225,000 versus 218,000) will be closely watched in light of the payroll revisions.

Tuesday also brings the international trade balance (-$75 billion versus -$71.5 billion), which will include country and product-level details. These will allow for a recalculation of the average tariff rate. DB economists estimate that, as of 7 August, when country-specific rates take effect, the average tariff rate will be 19.6% on a static basis using 2024 trade weights. However, this is likely an upper bound, and after adjusting for overestimation, the more realistic average is closer to 15%.  Thursday’s US data also includes productivity (expected at +2.5% versus -1.5%) and unit labour costs (+1.0% versus +6.6%).

In Europe, the highlight will be the Bank of England’s rate decision - DB expects the central bank to cut the Bank Rate to 4%, marking the fifth quarter-point reduction in the current cycle.  Additional European data will come from trade and industrial production figures across key Eurozone economies, with Germany’s factory orders due on Wednesday. CPI prints are expected in Switzerland today and in Sweden on Thursday.

In Asia, the focus will be on China’s trade balance, due Thursday, and Japan’s wage data on Wednesday. Chinese exports are expected to slow to 5% year-on-year in July, down from 5.8% in June. The Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday and the minutes from the June meeting tomorrow.

On the earnings front, the US season has passed its peak, but notable reports are expected from Eli Lilly, Palantir, and AMD. Other S&P 500 names reporting include McDonald’s, Walt Disney, and Uber. In Europe, attention will be on Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Rheinmetall. Novo’s report on Wednesday will be particularly interesting following last week’s profit warning. In Japan, Toyota and Sony are set to report. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest energy company by market capitalization, will release its results tomorrow.

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday August 4

• Data: US June factory orders, Japan July monetary base, Switzerland July CPI
• Earnings: Palantir, Mitsubishi UFJ, MercadoLibre, Vertex, Williams Cos

Tuesday August 5

• Data: US July ISM services, June trade balance, China July services PMI, UK July official reserves changes, new car registrations, France June industrial production, budget balance, Italy July services PMI, Eurozone June PPI, Canada June international merchandise trade, New Zealand Q2 labour force survey 
• Central banks: BoJ minutes of the June meeting
• Earnings: AMD, Caterpillar, Amgen, Eaton, Arista Networks, Pfizer, Recruit Holdings, TransDigm, BP, Apollo, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Marriott, Zoetis, Diageo, Deutsche Post, Coupang, Infineon, Fidelity National Information, Super Micro Computer, DuPont de Nemours, Snap
• Auctions: US 3-year Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday August 6

• Data: UK July construction PMI, Japan June labor cash earnings, Germany June factory orders, July construction PMI, France Q2 private sector payrolls, Italy June industrial production, Eurozone June retail sales
• Central banks: Fed's Cook and Collins speak
• Earnings: Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, Walt Disney, Uber, Shopify, AppLovin, DoorDash, Thomson Reuters, Siemens Energy, Airbnb, Emerson Electric, Fortinet, CRH, Energy Transfer, Generali, Honda Motor, Glencore, Occidental Petroleum, Rockwell Automation, Commerzbank, Bayer, NRG Energy, Vonovia, Carlyle, DraftKings, Global Payments, Duolingo, Lyft
• Auctions: US 10-year Notes ($42bn)

Thursday August 7

• Data: US Q2 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, June consumer credit, wholesale trade sales, July NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, China July trade balance, foreign reserves, Japan June leading index, coincident index, Germany June industrial production, trade balance, France June trade balance, current account balance, Q2 wages, Sweden July CPI
• Central banks: BoE's decision, DMP survey, Fed's Bostic speaks, ECB publishes its economic bulletin, ECB's Rehn speaks
• Earnings: Eli Lilly, Toyota, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Sony, Gilead Sciences, ConocoPhillips, DBS, Constellation Energy, Rheinmetall, Petroleo Brasileiro, Vistra, Flutter Entertainment, Atlassian, Cheniere, Datadog, Block, Kenvue, Take-Two, Warner Bros Discovery, AP Moller - Maersk, Sandoz, Pinterest, Expedia, Rocket Lab, Twilio, NuScale Power, Maplebear, Peloton
• Auctions: US 30-year Bonds ($25bn)

Friday August 8

• Data: China Q2 BoP current account balance, Japan July Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, June household spending, BoP trade balance, BoP current account balance, Canada July jobs report
• Central banks: Fed's Musalem speaks, BoJ's summary of opinions from the July meeting
• Earnings: Munich Re, Wendy's

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the ISM services index on Tuesday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including an event with Fed Governor Cook on Wednesday. 

Monday, August 4 

10:00 AM Factory orders, June (GS -4.2%, consensus -4.8%, last +8.2%); Factory orders ex-transportation, June (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Durable goods orders, June final (GS -9.3%, consensus -9.3%, last -9.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June final (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, June final (last -0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, June final (last +0.4%)  

Tuesday, August 5 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$61.0bn, consensus -$61.3bn, last -$71.5bn)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, July final (consensus 55.1, last 55.2)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, July (GS 52.0, consensus 51.5, last 50.8): We estimate that the ISM services index increased by 1.2pt to 52.0 in July, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+1.9pt to 53.2 in July) but a headwind from residual seasonality. 

Wednesday, August 6 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 
• 02:00 PM Fed Governor Cook and Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speak:  Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and Boston Fed President Susan Collins will participate in a panel discussion with Central Bank of Chile Board Member Luis Felipe Céspedes. The discussion will be moderated by Boston Fed Director of Research Egon Zakrajšek. Q&A is expected. On July 15th, Collins said that “financial data point to the possibility that the impact of tariffs may be lessened somewhat by an ability for firms to decrease profit margins and for consumers to continue spending, despite higher prices.” But she also noted that she “do[es] not rule out scenarios with larger or more persistent effects from tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty.”
• 04:10 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at the 2025 Anchorage Economic Summit. Text and Q&A are expected. On July 17th, Daly said that she believes “the current policy rate is modestly or moderately restrictive" and has “penciled in a nominal neutral rate of 3%.” She also noted that the June SEP’s median projection of two rate cuts in 2025 “is a reasonable outlook to have.”

Thursday, August 7 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 preliminary (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.0%, last -1.5%); Unit labor costs, Q2 preliminary (GS +1.2%, consensus +1.5%, last +6.6%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 2 (GS 218k, consensus 221k, last 218k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 26 (consensus 1,947k, last 1,946k)
• 10:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a virtual fireside chat on monetary policy with the Florida Institute of CFOs. Q&A is expected. On August 1st, Bostic said, “Going into this week, I thought the risks to inflation were much greater than the risks to employment… [but the July nonfarm payroll number and the revisions to prior months’ job gains] suggest that maybe the economy is weakening more broadly than what we had been seeing.” He also noted that he still expects “one cut this year” but is open to “rethinking [that after getting] more data before the next meeting.” 
• 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, July (last 3.0%) 

Friday, August 8 

• There are no major data releases scheduled.
• 10:20 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will participate in a fireside chat hosted by Mississippi Valley State University. Text and Q&A are expected. On July 10th, Musalem said that “tariffs could have a temporary effect on inflation and a one-time effect on prices, [but] they could also have a more persistent impact on inflation,” and that “it’s too soon to tell which way it’s going to go.” He also noted that from his perspective, the current “monetary policy is modestly restrictive.”

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:50

The BEA reported this morning that light vehicle sales were at 16.41 million in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

This was up 7.1% from the sales rate in June, and up 3.7% from July 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through July (red).
Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".
Then sales were depressed in May and June. 

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in July were at the consensus forecast of 16.4 million SAAR.

US Deploys F-16 "Super Squadron" Closer To North Korea Border After Kim's Ultimatum

The United States is expanding its military footprint on the Korean Peninsula by establishing another elite air unit near the demilitarized zone, which is apparently in response to Pyongyang's last week announcement that it will only enter negotiations if the US abandons its demand for denuclearization.

The Department of Defense confirmed the US recently transferred 31 F-16 fighter jets from Kunsan Air Base to Osan Air Base, with a purpose to "consolidate air power and enhance combat readiness" in the region.

The Pentagon indicated this marks the second such "super squadron" the US has stationed in South Korea. Osan lies several dozen miles north of Kunsan, closer to the demilitarized zone with North Korea, and so the Kim Jong Un government will no doubt see this as a serious provocation.

Source: Indiana Air National Guard

Lt. Gen. David. R. Iverson, head of the Seventh Air Force and US Forces Korea deputy commander, has described this change as "an opportunity for us to see if squadrons of this size increase our training effectiveness while also increasing our combat capability if deterrence fails."

According to details in Task & Purpose:

Now the Air Force is initiating phase two of the tests, with the creation of a brand new super squadron at Osan. Alongside the 31 planes, roughly 1,000 airmen from the 8th Fighter Wing at Kunsan will transfer to the northern air base as part of this build up. The Air Force described the second phase as a “temporary” shift. The second super squadron is expected to be operational by October, and the second phase will last through October 2026.

North Korea has meanwhile insisted that any future dialogue with the US remains off the table unless Washington recognizes its status as a nuclear-armed nation.

Days ago, Kim Yo-jong, who is the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and a senior official in the country’s ruling Workers Party, stated that "Any attempt to deny the position of the DPRK as a nuclear weapons state, which was established along with the existence of a powerful nuclear deterrent and fixed by the supreme law reflecting the unanimous will of all the DPRK people, will be thoroughly rejected."

"The DPRK is open to any option in defending its present national position," she had added. It is by "no means beneficial" for the US and North Korea to be in confrontation, so the Trump administration should "seek another way of contact on the basis of such new thinking."

Still, even as the Pentagon is conducing a provocative force posture shift with the movement of its jet squadron, Seoul is taking steps to defuse tensions by dismantling propaganda speakers at the border:

South Korean authorities began removing loudspeakers blaring anti-North Korea broadcasts along the country’s border, Seoul’s Ministry of National Defense has said, as the new government of President Lee Jae-myung seeks to ease tensions with Pyongyang.

“Starting today, the military has begun removing the loudspeakers,” Lee Kyung-ho, spokesman of South Korea’s Defence Ministry, told reporters on Monday.

Source: Air Force News Agency

While Pyongyang has in the past reciprocated 'good-faith' actions like this, the continued large presence of American forces on the peninsula will remain a big problem - also given the fact that in recent years the US has docked nuclear-powered submarines at South Korean ports at various times.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:30

Bureau Of Labored Statistics

By Bas van Geffen, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Non-farm payrolls came in at just 73,000 jobs last month. Moreover, revised estimates for May and June came in at just 19k and 14k. This means that 258,000 fewer jobs were created in those two months than initially estimated. 

So, Friday’s employment report was very disappointing, to say the least. It supports the argument of the two dissenting FOMC members, namely that the labor market outlook may be weaker than the Fed thought. It certainly raises the probability of a rate cut when the Fed’s policymakers meet again in September – something the market had started to doubt after last week’s policy decision.

Yet, Trump wasn’t exactly happy. The US president wants the central bank to cut rates. But he does not want lower rates because of concerns that the economy is cooling down. In fact, Trump either does not believe the statistics, or he really does not want to hear them. Following the poor employment report, President Trump fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, claiming she was a political appointee by Biden.

In short, on top of threats to the Fed’s independence, the market may now have to start worrying about the reliability of US data – and not only because statistics agencies are running into capacity constraints as a result of budget cuts. 

Because Trump will get an early opportunity to take more control of the Fed. On Friday, Kugler resigned from the board, several months before her term ended. The US president will reportedly appoint her replacement (who may just become the next Fed Chair when Powell leaves), and the next Commissioner of Labor Statistics, by the end of this week. 

Equity markets fell on Friday, as Trump’s tariffs and the employment report suggested that global growth could be weaker than expected. Today, European markets are opening in the green, hoping that the weak data will elicit Fed easing. Indeed, EUR/USD rose 1.5 cents after the non-farm payrolls as the market revises its outlook for US monetary policy, and perhaps further boosted by concerns about the future independence of the central bank and statistics offices.

As damaging as the firing of the BLS head may be for the trust in US statistics, it wasn’t President Trump’s scariest social media post. Last Thursday, Medvedev, currently the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that Trump’s new ultimatum to stop the war in Ukraine is “a threat and another step towards war.” The former president also reminded Trump of Russia’s nuclear strike capabilities. Responding to Medvedev, President Trump announced that he “ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case.”

Russia and China have started joint military exercises in the Sea of Japan. These war games were planned well before the escalatory rhetoric between Trump and Medvedev, but they do underscore deepening Russia-China ties.

Meanwhile, China’s control over critical raw materials is biting the US’ military dominance. Even though Beijing has loosened export controls on rare earths after the US and China agreed to a trade truce, the Wall Street Journal reports that manufacturers of military equipment still struggle to source key inputs. This leads to significantly higher production costs, and –worse– production delays.

According to US Trade Representative Greer, talks on these rare earth flows are “about halfway there,” while Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism about a near-term trade deal with China.

Canadian officials sounded equally optimistic about a deal to lower US import tariffs, after talks with the USTR and Secretary of Commerce. However, Greer suggested that many of the August 1 tariffs were unlikely to be lowered. Whether that also applies to Canada remains to be seen. The Canadians have a meeting with Commerce Secretary Lutnick this week, but they don’t expect a quick resolution. A follow-up meeting will reportedly be scheduled for late August. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:15

US Factory Orders Tumbled In June By The Most Since COVID

After surging 8.3% higher in May (amid tariff front-running and Boeing orders), US Factory orders tumbled 4.8% in June (as expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

Last month's tariff-front-running surge up 8.3% is the second biggest monthly jump in 69 years.

June's follow-on decline is the biggest MoM drop since the COVID lockdowns as non-defense aircraft orders slowed...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Orders (ex Transports) rose 0.4% MoM (the second monthly rise in a row)...

Source: Bloomberg

Are these headline numbers bad enough to fire the head of the Census Bureau?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:07

Abbott Says He'll Remove Texas Dems Who Fled State To Block GOP Redistricting Vote

Absconding to -- where else -- Chicago, Democratic members of the Texas House of Representatives fled the state on Sunday to break a quorum and prevent a vote on a redistricting plan that promises to boost the GOP's share of seats in the US House of Representatives by five. In response, Gov. Greg Abbott threatened to remove them from office, replace them, and pursue felony charges against them, using extradition powers if need be. 

Texas state Rep. Jolanda “Jo” Jones (D) flips through maps during a public hearing Friday on congressional redistricting in Austin. (Eric Gay/AP)

Their choice of exile location is positively drenched in hypocrisy, as Illinois arguably has the worst gerrymandering in America -- to Democrats' benefit, of course. In 2024, Democrats won 53% of the popular vote in Illinois House races, but took 82% of the seats (14 out of 17).   

This is the map Illinois Democrats drew. But I guess it’s a safe haven from gerrymandering now. https://t.co/isJazY56hQ pic.twitter.com/ozb6cMilcl

— Dr. Rich McCormick for Congress (@RichforGA) August 3, 2025

A quorum is the minimum number of lawmakers present in order to conduct legislative business - a tactic they've used twice before in the 22 years since Republicans have controlled all of Texas state government (efforts which ultimately failed).

The Democrats plan to stay away for two weeks to run the clock on a special legislative session called by Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in order to draw the new map. 

By state law, the Texas House can only conduct business when two-thirds of its 150 members are present, meaning at least 51 of the state's 62 Democrats will stay away. So far, 57 have fled the state, according to State Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D), with members fleeing to Chicago, Boston and New York. All plan to remain out of the state until Aug. 19, when the special session concludes.

"Our goal right now is to kill this session," said Rosenthal. 

Abbott said if the Democrats don't return by 3pm on Monday, he will invoke a Texas attorney general opinion and "remove the missing Democrats from membership in the Texas House," and then pick their successors under power granted in the state constitution. Upping the ante, Abbott said many of the fleeing Democrats may have committed felonies, as they're soliciting donations to cover fines they face under Texas House rules -- arguing that they risk bribery charges for accepting money "to assist in the violation of legislative duties."  To bring them to justice, he said "I will use my full extradition authority to demand the return to Texas of any potential out-of-state felons." Texas AG Ken Paxton (R), meanwhile, has threatened to arrest lawmakers who break quorum, though he won't have jurisdiction over them outside of the state. 

The governor of gerrymandered Illinois is lecturing about gerrymandering and praising obstructionist TX Democrats who fled their state, and his state is now harboring:

"This is a righteous act of courage!" pic.twitter.com/7mOiZv4cAR

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) August 4, 2025

Democrats dismissed the threats. “As the Texas Supreme Court has acknowledged, it is the right of legislators to deny quorum," State Rep. Chris Turner told the Dallas Morning News. "And as Governor Abbott should know, we also have separation of powers in this country.”

"Today this corruption ends," said state Rep. Gene Wu, chairman of the Democratic caucus in his chamber, at a Chicago presser at a county Democratic Party office attended by other Texas Democrats and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. 

“This is not a decision we make lightly, but it is one we make with absolute moral clarity. Governor Abbott...is using an intentionally racist map to steal the voices of millions of Black and Latino Texans, all to execute a corrupt political deal. Apathy is complicity, and we will not be complicit in the silencing of hard-working communities who have spent decades fighting for the power that Trump wants to steal.”

Wu also accused Gov. Greg Abbott of making "hostages" out of the victims of last month's terrible floods in Kerrville, since the voting on the redistricting initiative was placed ahead of handling bills that would deliver financial aid to affected communities. The map has been swiftly advancing during the special legislative session that Abbott convened in July to handle the redistricting and flood response, among many other issues.   

Texans deserve better! I won’t help pass a racist map drawn by Donald Trump and Washington D.C. to silence the voices of Texans. #txlege #redistricting pic.twitter.com/BjLe6BTpqL

— Rep Ramón (@RepRamonRomero) August 3, 2025

That said, Wu admitted he didn't know what Texas Democrats would do if Abbott calls another special session after this one. 

"We don’t know what the next steps are," he said. 

Texas House Democrats are screened before boarding their flight to Chicago on Sunday (Bob Daemmrich for The Texas Tribune)

Republican leaders say the new map is a necessary correction, noting that the state’s population growth has warranted mid-decade changes. But Democrats contend the proposal is a blatant partisan power grab, part of a broader Republican effort in several states to shore up congressional majorities before what is expected to be a volatile midterm season.

Texas Republicans currently control 25 of the state’s 38 congressional seats; the new map would likely give them 30, all of which Mr. Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points in 2024. The GOP holds a narrow 219-212 majority in the U.S. House, with four vacancies, and party leaders see Texas as central to preserving their legislative agenda.

Before the map was unveiled, President Trump said he favored “a very simple redrawing” that would give Republicans more seats. “We pick up five seats [in Texas] but we have a couple other states where we’ll pick up seats also,” he said last month.

Texas state Representative Todd Hunter, a Republican and sponsor of the legislation, called the proposal “a good plan for Texas” and said, “The primary changes … are focused on five districts for partisan purposes.”

DNC Chair Ken Martin - of the party that continually floats packing the Supreme Court when they don't get their way - said, “Republicans thought they could just rig the maps and change the rules without the American people taking notice. They were dead wrong.”

Former Attorney General Eric Holder said Sunday on ABC that Democrats might “have to do things that perhaps in the past I would not have supported” in response to the Texas plan.

“I think we need to respond in kind,” said Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas, and chair of the Democratic Governors Association. 

The new Texas map, unveiled last week under pressure from Trump and Abbott, was approved by a legislative committee on Saturday and was expected to reach the House floor on Tuesday.

In a separate development that could have profound implications for redistricting battles across America, the US Supreme Court last week said it will consider the constitutionality of redistricting that's intentionally aimed at creating "majority-minority districts" with the goal securing power for blacks and Hispanics. In that Louisiana case filed by self-described "non-African American voters," claiming a violation of the Equal Protection Clause, the high court said it will examine whether that kind of redistricting violates the 14th or 15th Amendments to the US Constitution.

In April 2024, a federal panel of judges in the US District Court for the Western District of Louisiana ruled that purposefully creating a majority-black district was "an impermissible racial gerrymander in violation of the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.” The 15th Amendment bars governments from denying or abridging the right to vote based on race or color. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:00