Individual Economists

Largest Ukrainian Drone Attack On Moscow In Over A Year Leaves Four Dead

Zero Hedge -

Largest Ukrainian Drone Attack On Moscow In Over A Year Leaves Four Dead

The Russian capital has just suffered possibly its single biggest and deadliest Ukrainian drone attack of the war - and certainly the largest attack wave on Moscow in the last year. It ironically comes exactly a week after President Zelensky signed on to a three day Russian 'Victory Day' ceasefire at the behest of President Trump. It also comes after several days of major Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.

At least four people have been killed in the overnight large-scale assault wave, with dozens more wounded. Regional airports have been shut down, and there's been a sense of panic as the threat lingered into the daylight hours Sunday, with onlookers filming drones flying uncontested over Moscow airspace. 

via Telegram

"A woman died in Khimki, north of Moscow, and a person was trapped under rubble, regional governor Andrei Vorobiev said. A man and a woman were killed in the village of Pogorelki," BBC reports, citing local authorities.

Additionally, "A male Indian citizen was killed and three others injured, India's Moscow embassy said, but it was not clear whether these casualties were included in Vorobiev's tally. Another person died in Belgorod region bordering Ukraine."

The regional governor said that residences were on fire, with a home in the village of Subbotino, southwest of Moscow, being one of them. 

Reports say the attack marks the first time of the entire 4+ year long war that Ukraine directly struck a Moscow oil refinery, considered to be the most protected energy facility in the country, with multiple strikes landing on target.

Moment of attack on Moscow refinery:

Hours-long fire at the key refinery...

Some eyewitness accounts said at one point drones were seen flying in formation over Moscow, as if to make a mockery of Russian anti-air defense.

Ukraine's drone swarms have long proven a major problem for Russia's military, being small and low to the ground, able to evade expensive air defenses which were designed to intercept larger, faster inbound projectiles like rockets or aircraft.

Overnight, Russia's defense ministry said 556 drones were intercepted around the country. Some 130 of them were intercepted in the Moscow region alone, but clearly at least dozens still made it through.

Amid the suicide UAV attack mayhem, Sheremetyevo - Russia's busiest airport that serves Moscow - suffered drone damage and falling debris, but there were no reports of injury at the airport.

"The situation in the passenger terminals is calm. Sheremetyevo Airport is providing stable passenger and aircraft services," airport officials said.

There have also been dramatic scenes of massive fires just underneath busy highways, causing panicked drivers to try and get past the flames quickly and safely, and watching the skies above.

Damage at Sheremetyevo airport...

via X

Ukrainian President Zelensky later owned up to authorizing the attack, saying the strikes were an "entirely justified" response to the last several days of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kiev. This past week saw massive Russian attacks, which killed seven bystanders and wounded many more, including children.

Rare moment of chaos and fear over Moscow...

The tit-for-tat drone hits have increasingly expanded to include civilian neighborhoods on either side of the border, sadly. The ground war has lately been largely stale-mated, with Russia having the clear edge, but the air war has been heating up - with both sides suffering serious damage, particularly at energy sites.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 15:45

Massive Mushroom Cloud 'Test' Blast Rattles Uninformed Residents Outside Jerusalem

Zero Hedge -

Massive Mushroom Cloud 'Test' Blast Rattles Uninformed Residents Outside Jerusalem

Late Saturday night, a massive explosion and a bright fireball illuminated the skies over Israel's Beit Shemesh, deeply rattling local residents and setting off rampant speculation in local media and online commentary. 

The area lies just 19 miles west of Jerusalem, close enough to be located within Jerusalem District. Curiously, the state-owned Tomer rocket propulsion defense ministry-linked firm subsequently sought clarify that the blast was actually a controlled, pre-planned test and that authorities were notified in advance.

However, community members have complained about receiving absolutely no warning, and were shocked at the immensity of the blast which lit up the night sky, visible for many miles.

Tensions were already running high in the city which had been struck multiple times by Iranian missiles during the recent war. The sudden detonation fueled widespread anxiety and anger among residents already on edge, bracing for the potential renew of the Iran war and thus Iranian ballistic missile attacks.

Times of Israel has cited Channel 12, saying that "the test involved propellants for rockets, including those with a range of thousands of kilometers."

The same report interestingly called it "apocalyptic" in appearance but suggested this was misleading:

On Sunday, Kan reported that in the wake of the panic caused by the blast, a meeting was held at Tomer during which it was decided, in coordination with the Defense Ministry, to warn the public ahead of similar tests.

Tomer sources told the broadcaster that due to operational needs, the company is conducting testing at all hours, including during the night.

According to Kan, the company recently hired dozens of new employees, and the test was scheduled at night due to production constraints. Sources said it was carried out five kilometers from any population areas and that weather conditions had made the blast appear more "apocalyptic" than it actually was.

But it was significant enough to result in the convening of Israeli emergency management and defense officials, who subsequently told the public an investigation would ensue. The Defense Ministry said in the aftermath that "the issue of advance warning to the public will be examined with the company."

The company in question, Tomer, also separately stated, "A routine and planned test was carried out, conducted according to plan and achieving all its objectives."

It explained: "All emergency forces were notified in advance, as is customary, and the fact that emergency and rescue forces were not called in attests to this. The videos filmed from a distance amplified the force of the explosion and did not reflect the fact that this was a routine event."

But longtime resident and Beit Shemesh City Council member David Gozlan shot back, "There were quarries here, there were explosions at the Hartuv quarries, there were quite a few things here - but we have never experienced anything like this."

The whole incident saw US 'security experts' quickly speculate and weigh in, and try and make sense of it on Sunday morning...

Naturally the biggest fear among locals was that a final big Iranian attack was underway, also given prior reports of hypersonic missiles launched on Israel during the height of the 38-day Operation Epic Fury bombing campaign on the Islamic Republic.

Israelis across the country spent many anxious and sleepless nights in bomb shelters and hundreds of Iranian projectiles rained down - many of them targeting defense industrial sites in the Israeli countryside.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 13:25

AI vs Affordability And Rates

Zero Hedge -

AI vs Affordability And Rates

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Last week, we contemplated, for the first time, that we might need to Understand Universal Basic Income. The timing was very good as on Monday, South Korea floated the idea of transferring some AI-driven tax revenue to its citizens. As uncertainty around jobs, income, and costs continue to weigh on overall confidence, expect this subject to get more airtime in the political arena. The concept of UBI does go hand in hand with two competing themes: AI and Affordability.

China, Iran, and a Whole Lotta Nothing

Iran took a backseat to the Summit in China. We had relatively low expectations for the Summit. The cards were stacked somewhat in China’s favor as examined in China and Trade. It turns out that even our low expectations seemed to have set the bar too high. Friday’s title pretty much sums it up: My President Went to Beijing and all I got was this Crummy T-Shirt. There may yet be some deals announced, either with Iran or with China, but it looks like we are starting the week roughly where we started the prior week, but with even lower expectations.

The Oil Curve

While Brent crude is most impacted by the ongoing problems in the Middle East, we will stick with WTI because that is what affects Americans the most.

One of the talking points for the admin had been that the oil market was predicting a “quick” resolution. Some officials pointed to the August contracts as demonstrating that $100 oil was a blip and things would “normalize” quickly. While $80 was still higher than pre-war, the argument had some legs. But now, the August contract is up to $95, and we are seeing $80 priced in all the way into 2027. This is certainly “higher for longer.” What is increasingly concerning is that it is difficult to tell if this is pricing in a re-opening or not. It was entirely plausible, a month or more ago, to believe that with the Strait of Hormuz getting back to normal levels of transit, global energy prices would “normalize” quickly. It is increasingly unclear what the “new” normal is. How much damage has been done to the “organism” that is energy? How quickly can things be fixed? Is the “new” normal the same as the “old” normal (see "Why One Bank Thinks It's "Magical Thinking" That Hormuz Reopens In June")?

Increasingly there are more and more questions about how long the damage will last, and if that damage will continue to elevate not just the price of oil, but also gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc.

The U.S. can continue to release its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). It is unclear how low the reserves can go (I’m told that some amount needs to be left in place for structural integrity). We have released about ½ of what was added back to the SPR. Keep an eye on this, as it does limit our options over time. No one is expecting the problems to last that long, yet here we are, 3 months into the conflict, and transit through the Strait remains limited. Higher for longer in the oil market is the single biggest issue for Global Affordability.

AI versus Affordability

We received some consumer spending data this week which wasn’t too bad. It did seem to highlight, yet again, the problems facing people in the lower income brackets. I’m not convinced it doesn’t obfuscate that we are spending more to get less, but that is for another day. But here is a “simplified” version of a chart I’ve seen in various formats.

Companies servicing the consumer are not seeing much appreciation in their stock price.

Companies making chips are growing like gangbusters!

Is this sustainable? That question is being asked with increased urgency. The “parabolic” rise is raising some concerns. Without a doubt, this is the sector experiencing growth. It does seem to justify not only today’s prices, but also possibly even higher multiples. The earnings engine (and growth) is there, but this market has had a habit of hitting “high-conviction” trades.

I find this chart extremely weird, but also interesting.

SOXL is a 3x leveraged SOX ETF. The assets in this ETF are about $20 billion, but the shares outstanding have been declining. While it may be inappropriate to label SOXL as a “degen” trade, I’m going to go there. “Degen” is an “affectionate” way of describing a group of very aggressive investors. Whether it is day trading leveraged ETFs, making bets in crypto altcoins, or playing in 0DTE options, there is a crowd of very aggressive traders that I will call “degen” for now (Warren Buffett would probably just call them gamblers).

I do think this crowd represents the “tip of the spear” on retail sentiment. If that assessment is correct, then it might indicate that retail is done (or almost done) fueling this trade.

The SOXX ETF weighs in at $33 billion (I had to do a double take, that it is “only” $33 billion while SOXL is $20 billion). The share count here tends to be more correlated with price. If anything, the last decline in SOXX was possibly telegraphed by a declining share count.

My view is that retail is slowing down on the semi-trade, just as institutions, including hedge funds, are treating it as a “must-have” position.

Retail, unlike funds, don’t have stop losses. Is this setting up for a pullback? Based more on positioning, and who is positioned, rather than the fundamentals?

Without the AI and semi story, market averages would be much lower. That is a fact. Is there anything to indicate that this trade cannot continue? No. But, I am curious what retail is up to here, and whether we are seeing enough of a pullback to create a reasonable pullback?

Which Brings Us To Rates

Yes, I “cherry picked” April 2024 as a starting point, because the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unchanged, while rates across the globe have risen. Most noticeably for Japan. In 2 years, the 10-year JGB went from yielding less than 1% to almost 3%. This is incredibly important. Japan as a “nation of savers” has been funding much of the world’s debt. I remain convinced that “at or near-zero” bond buyers of all levels of sophistication will take steps to get positive yield. So, when Japan hovered near 0% on rates, many investors would find alternatives to their domestic market to get yield. That has changed.

Globally, U.S. Treasuries, are fairly “generic.”

  • If you do not need dollar exposure, you have local FX bonds that can serve your needs.
  • All countries face a variety of risks to their economy. All central banks are trying to navigate the data, their expectations, and their mandate. It is less certain today how the U.S. central bank will respond to data than it was a few months ago – so that uncertainty should have a cost?
    • It is likely one reason why our agency debt team is seeing agency and super sovereign debt spreads to Treasuries at very low levels.

Defense Spending Requires Money

  • While ProSec is about far more than defense spending, it certainly incorporates the need to spend more. Japan – spending more. Europe/NATO – spending more and it seems inevitable that they will have to ramp that up.

The AI and Data Center Build Out Competes for Money

  • The semiconductor valuations depend heavily on data center and AI spending. That is being funded in a large part by debt.

We have been arguing for “range-bound” Treasury trading, while slowly raising the midpoint of the range.

I’m a bit hesitant to be very bearish on bonds here, as 5% or so on 30s (we are well above 5.12% as of Friday’s close) has been a level where this admin has taken steps to drive yields lower.

I could see an “Operation Twist” sort of announcement (the Fed selling shorter-dated bonds they own, to buy longer-dated bonds), but I’m not sure they are prepared to act.

What I find “interesting” is that Bessent no longer seems to be able to do “no wrong.” At the height of Liberation Day fears, Bessent could appear on TV and calm things instantaneously. I heard of the TACO BELL trade. Trump Always Chickens Out. Bessent Explains Longer Later. It was pretty clever (I did not come up with that).

Maybe it is because the Iran conflict is so far removed from what a Treasury Secretary does, that his latest appearances haven’t had the same impact? Maybe I have Bessent Delusion Syndrome? (Anything is possible).

But as many market participants seem to be waiting for some sort of “intervention” to helps bonds, I’m left wondering if they can accomplish that easily now? 

Global bond yields are not helping. Higher for Longer on oil is not helping (that seems easier to correct – via peace with Iran, but that doesn’t seem imminent).

Bottom Line

Not “pound the table” bearish on bonds or stocks, but certainly not bullish. Not even really bullish for a trade. With the President likely looking for some “wins” and the admin likely exploring what they can do on the yield front, we could see relief in bond yields and higher stock prices, but I want hedges and would fade any such bounce. Price action in stocks seemed almost “sickly” on Thursday and Friday where every bounce/rally met some serious selling. Maybe all the AI-trained algos have read Sell in May and Go Away? Sorry, had to go there.

Caution into the summer seems warranted. Markets have priced in a lot of good news (China, Iran, and Semis), often multiple times (at some point is an earnings surprise really a surprise when everyone surprises the same way?).

Maybe it is time to “unprice” some of the good news? Affordability remains an issue and it seems to be becoming increasingly entrenched, which is a problem for bonds and stocks as a whole, if not just for the AI/data center spend, where my bigger questions are around positioning, than anything else.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 12:50

Axios Warns Cuba Stockpiled 300 Attack Drones With Crosshairs On U.S. Homeland

Zero Hedge -

Axios Warns Cuba Stockpiled 300 Attack Drones With Crosshairs On U.S. Homeland

Well, well, well.

On Feb. 3, we first asked whether a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 was quietly taking shape on the collapsed, communist-run Caribbean island of Cuba.

But instead of Soviet missiles, we warned that Havana may be stockpiling Russian-made Geranium one-way attack drones with the operational range to threaten major U.S. oil and gas refineries in the Gulf of America, key military bases, data centers, power grid infrastructure, and potentially even Washington, D.C.

Nearly three and a half months ago, we laid out the framework for a potential drone threat against the homeland originating from Cuba, using an infographic published by the Russian think tank Rybar.

Rybar is a noteworthy source in this context, and Western officials are not fans. The State Department has offered a $10 million reward for information on the outlet through its Rewards for Justice program, while both the European Union and the United Kingdom have sanctioned it.

At the time, Rybar wrote: "But what would the Cubans do in the event of a conflict? Let us hypothetically imagine that Havana decides to resist the Americans and chooses to fight. In that case, the already world-famous Geran strike drones could come to their aid."

Fast forward to Sunday: Axios, citing newly obtained U.S. intelligence, reports that Cuba has accumulated roughly 300 military drones from Russia and Iran and has discussed potential wartime strike scenarios targeting Guantanamo Bay, U.S. naval vessels, and possibly Key West.

Axios spoke with a senior US official who said the Cuban drone threat is becoming a growing national security concern because of Cuba's proximity to the U.S., the presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana, and the rapid proliferation of low-cost drone warfare.

"When we think about those types of technologies being that close, and a range of bad actors from terror groups to drug cartels to Iranians to the Russians, it's concerning," the official said.

The official noted that Cuba has been building drone stockpiles of "varying capabilities" from Russia and Iran since 2023.

Late last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with officials in Havana, which appeared to reopen the channel for political dialogue between the two countries.

Ratcliffe and top U.S. officials, some of whose faces were blurred in images released by the CIA on X, held high-level talks with Cuba's Interior Minister, the head of Cuban intelligence, and Raúl Castro's grandson, Raulito Rodríguez Castro.

AP News noted that Cuban officials presented a report to Ratcliffe and his team, claiming to demonstrate that the communist-run island poses no threat to U.S. national security.

Meanwhile, the most glaring vulnerability in U.S. airspace is the absence of a low-cost, layered counter-drone technology capable of detecting and defeating one-way attack drones. That gap spans energy infrastructure, stadiums, data centers, military facilities, power substations, and other high-value civilian assets.

This is precisely why private equity funds have recently rushed into the space. PE firms are increasingly moving to fund, acquire, and import battle-tested Ukrainian drone and counter-drone systems into the U.S. market, positioning for a rapid phase of domestic airspace fortification.

Related:

We've outlined this theme for months, even before it became a national topic. Follow the money, as we've mentioned, just watch the parabolic rise of 'war unicorns' in the quarters and years ahead.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 12:15

Remember: In A Crisis, Everyone Will Consider Themselves 'The Good Guys'

Zero Hedge -

Remember: In A Crisis, Everyone Will Consider Themselves 'The Good Guys'

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via substack,

The state has two monopolies it must protect whatever the cost: the monopoly on decreeing what is legal tender and on force.

We’re entering an era in which push comes to shove will lead to immovable objects encountering irresistible forces. All sorts of verities and vanities will be bulldozed as kicking the can down the road descends into desperation to stave off collapse, a desperation that unleashes second order effects the desperate did not anticipate. The only responses at this late stage are even more desperate, so desperation is self-reinforcing.

The previous eras of institutional-state desperation were 1) The 1930s Great Depression, 2) the 1973-74 Gas Crisis and 3) the inflationary recession of 1980-82. The desperation in the 1930s was truly serious: banning private ownership of gold other than coin-collecting, attempting to remake the Supreme Court, one new federal program after another, slashing the wages of municipal / city employees to keep as many people employed as the shrinking revenues could allow, and so on.

The desperation of the 1970s and 80s were relatively narrow in scope, but felt serious at the time: gas rationing and wage/price controls in the 1970s, and then rocketing bond yields / interest rates in the early 1980s that triggered millions of layoffs in interest-sensitive sectors such as autos and housing.

The strong-arm policies of the 1970s and 1980s worked, and were relatively brief. The crises lasted around two years, and then things normalized.

The strong-arm policies of the 1930s didn’t work, and desperation slid into despair. The official happy-talk continued, but it rang increasingly hollow as the decade ground on.

Given the present-day confluence of disintegrative forces, a.k.a. mutually reinforcing polycrisis, hopes for a brief recession and a quick return to “growth” may be misplaced. If inflation and scarcities intensify, the usual bag of tricks--dropping interest rates to zero, flooding the financial sector with credit / liquidity, increasing federal pork spending, etc.--will not just fail, they will be counter-productive, fueling inflationary forces not in assets that enrich but in real-world goods and services that impoverish.

The footprint of the Central State--and state/county/local government--was relatively modest in the 1930s compared to the footprint of the state now: 36% of GDP in the US (23% federal, 13% state/local) and much higher in many developed nations.

Note that in a recession, GDP drops and state spending tends to rise to compensate for the contraction of private sector spending. so this ratio can climb very quickly.

To a degree few question, the state is the nation. The nation is defined by the state’s legal structure and its ability to enforce that structure. If the state collapses, the nation is in dire straits.

Should the state’s finances enter a self-reinforcing death-spiral, the desperation will quickly reach a level in which nothing is off the table--no extreme is too extreme. The typical self-reinforcing death-spiral is a currency crisis in which the currency loses value so rapidly that everyone holding it wants to convert it into some other form of value. That selling is self-reinforcing.

But that doesn’t exhaust the possibilities of the state’s finances becoming unsustainable, either financially and/or politically. A slow-moving crisis can phase shift into a fast-moving crisis like an avalanche no one is prepared for.

States face an insoluble dilemma: the powerful interests that dominate state decisions find higher taxes on corporations, trusts, foundations and the wealthy unacceptable, while the public living off the state’s largesse finds cuts deep enough to matter unacceptable.

Recency bias kicks in hard: after decades of “growth” and expanding state spending, anything that smacks of discipline or sacrifice is rejected out of hand as needless: why can’t we just go on as we have for the past 17 years, where assets soar in value, and the state spends more every year?

This leads to the illusory “solution” of kicking the can down the road: monetary policy tricks, fiscal sleight of hand, fake policy-tweak fixes presented as “solutions,” and so on. This magic can prop up the illusion of sustainability for years, but since every trick eventually makes the problems worse, this illusory “solution” actually hastens the push comes to shove moment where everyone is seated at the banquet of consequences.

Those tasked with saving the state’s finances from collapsing will view themselves as absolutely The Good Guys, working to saving the nation from greedy leeches on the state, speculators, financiers and those hoarding wealth acquired back when the state could afford to be generous. Now that things are at risk of unraveling, the fun and games are over and we need to do whatever it takes to save the nation--i.e. the state.

The wealthy trying to evade the new taxes will consider themselves The Good Guys: we worked hard for our wealth, created jobs and innovations that benefited the nation. Why should we give our hard-earned wealth to a corrupt, spendthrift state?

In the lower reaches of the economy, those evading taxes will also see themselves as The Good Guys: I’m just trying to support my family, and it’s the rich who should make the sacrifices as they have more than enough.

Those enforcing the expropriations / taxes will develop a unit-cohesion us-vs-them esprit de corps--the ultimate Good Guys who have to put up with both sets of greedy weasels: the weasels sucking off the state and the weasels trying to evade their civic duty to pay what they owe. Their tolerance for the self-serving claims of being “the good guys” by those protesting massive cuts in state spending and massive increases in taxes will be low to start and drop from there.

The state has two monopolies it must protect whatever the cost: the monopoly on decreeing what is legal tender and on force. So when the NSA is tasked with ferreting out miscreants cheating the state, tax-evading millionaires and other federal agencies are tasked with renditioning those who reckon they evaded their responsibilities by fleeing overseas, these are the tip-of-the-spear Good Guys who are trying to save the nation from the terminal rot of a citizenry that has long since lost any sense of civic duty that demands sacrifice and frugality.

Should push come to shove, nothing will be off the table. It will be too late to whine that we’re one of the Good Guys; the money from the state will stop flowing, and the safety deposit boxes and overseas accounts will be opened by force. As the cries of anguish increase, the demands to close down the tax havens of the super-wealthy will reach fever pitch, and whomever is tasked with saving the nation will have an agenda that reverses the order and the priority of wealth and power.

The super-wealthy are safe until they’re understood as the key impediment to saving the state. Right now, nobody thinks push could come to shove to the point that nothing will be off the table in terms of force. States that wait too long to act find their ability to apply force is insufficient to save the state, and this will weigh ever heavier on those tasked with protecting the state from financial collapse.

The irony here is the forces protecting their self-interests by kicking the can down the road are hurrying the collision of immovable objects and irresistible forces. Those who reckon they’ll do fine if the state collapses will find themselves nostalgic for the days when they could whine about a tax on second homes worth in excess of $5 million.

Chaos Unleashed: When “Irrational” Makes Perfect Sense.

I’m not saying I “like” this or that it’s inevitable; I’m saying the longer illusory “solutions” of kicking the can down the road are substituted for real solutions, the more likely a crisis of the state’s financial coherence becomes. Betting on which one wins--immovable objects or irresistible forces--might be a lose-lose proposition.

The only dinosaurs that survived the meteor strike were small birds that didn’t need much to get by, were mobile and were adapted to tough conditions. The descendants of those birds are the ones we see today.

How birds survived the dinosaurs’ doomsday (Scientific American)

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 10:30

Americans Face The Highest Memorial Day Gas Prices On Record

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Americans Face The Highest Memorial Day Gas Prices On Record

The nationwide average price of regular gasoline marginally increased on Thursday, after five straight days of decline, the American Automobile Association (AAA) said in a May 14 statement.

The national average price is “at the same range as it was in 2022, the year gas prices hit record highs. Travelers are preparing to hit the road in record numbers next week, and drivers will be facing the highest Memorial Day gas prices in four years,” AAA said.

On Friday, prices declined less than a cent to $4.52 per gallon from Thursday’s $4.53. In six states, average gas prices exceeded $5: Illinois, Nevada, Alaska, Oregon, Hawaii, and Washington. Prices exceeded $6 in California. Texas had the lowest price at $3.99 per gallon.

While Thursday’s average gas price was lower than last week’s, prices at the pump continue to remain elevated as crude oil hovers around the $100 per barrel price level.

With prices near record highs as Memorial Day looms, Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times that the federal government has taken various measures to ease the pressure on gas prices.

On May 11, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced that it would loan 53 million barrels of oil from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to petroleum companies.

“Deliveries will begin immediately as the Department continues to move swiftly to address short-term supply disruptions and strengthen U.S. energy security,” the DOE said.

Earlier, the U.S. government had removed sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude oil stranded at sea to ease the global oil supply shortage.

In late March, the Environmental Protection Agency issued a temporary fuel waiver allowing gasoline with higher ethanol blends to be sold nationwide beginning May 1 to curb rising prices. The waiver will remain in effect until May 20.

Since the U.S.–Iran war began in late February, Tehran has repeatedly attacked and threatened commercial ships in the critical Strait of Hormuz, a waterway located south of Iran through which over a fifth of global seaborne oil trade is transported. This has disrupted shipments through the strait, pushing oil prices higher.

On Feb. 27, a day before the conflict began, Brent crude oil futures closed the day at around $72 per barrel. On May 15, oil was trading at around $108 as at 9:10 a.m. ET.

Washington and Tehran have yet to negotiate an end to the war, which has kept markets tense and oil prices elevated.

Tight Oil Market

Since the start of the war, crude oil output from OPEC has fallen by more than 30 percent, the group said in a May 13 report.

Current OPEC output is at 18.89 million barrels per day, down from 28.65 million barrels before the conflict broke out. The organization cut its outlook for the year, predicting global crude oil demand would grow by less than 1.2 million barrels per day, down from its previous forecast of 1.4 million barrels per day.

However, “global economic growth continues to show resilience for this year despite geopolitical tensions,” the report said.

In a May 14 post, ING Bank said that the oil market is “eagerly awaiting” the outcome of the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump’s summit in China ended on May 15.

“The market could be pinning too much hope on the US–China talks yielding some positive results on Iran,” ING said.

“Some hope that China could exert pressure on Iran to reach a deal with the US, to end the war and lead to a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Morgan Stanley said in a May 12 report that the risk of prolonged oil supply disruption, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, has now increased.

Prior to the conflict, around 32 ships used to traverse the strait daily between January and March, a number that crashed to roughly two during March–April. There is now a 12 million-barrel-per-day shortage in global oil production.

“While a 12 million barrel-per-day difference may not appear large in a global context, it represents the largest supply shock since the 1970s OPEC oil embargo,” Morgan Stanley said.

“Further, its persistence amplifies the risk of broader economic impacts. Moreover, the timing of this disruption further compounds the issue, with the gasoline-heavy summer driving season (May through August) quickly approaching.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 09:55

Attack Drone Hits Near UAE Nuclear Power Plant

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Attack Drone Hits Near UAE Nuclear Power Plant

Abu Dhabi authorities report that a kamikaze drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al Dhafra. Officials said there were no injuries, no impact on radiological safety levels, and no disruption to plant operations.

Dubai-based newspaper Gulf News cited the Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation, which said the one-way drone attack on the Arab world's first commercial nuclear facility did not affect the safety of the nuclear power plant or the readiness of its essential systems. FANR added that all systems were operating normally as of late Sunday.

Barakah operates four APR-1400 reactors with a combined capacity of 5.6 gigawatts, generating about 40 terawatt-hours annually, or about 25% of the UAE's electricity. Any successful attack on Barakah would cripple the UAE's power grid.

The incident comes as the broader U.S.-Iran truce remains fragile, with President Trump recently describing the ceasefire as being on "life support."

Trump told reporters on Friday that Iran's latest proposal was "unacceptable" and blamed the Iranians for backtracking on the nuclear issue.

In response to Iranian demands, the Trump administration has set five conditions of its own for Tehran, according to Iran's Fars News Agency.

Those conditions include:

  • No U.S. compensation for damages

  • Transfer of 400 kg of uranium from Iran to the United States

  • Limiting Iran's nuclear activities to only one operating facility

  • No release of even 25% of frozen Iranian assets

  • Linking any ceasefire across all fronts to the continuation of negotiations

Here are the latest headlines from the Gulf region (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Peace Talks

  • The US has set five main conditions for a prospective peace agreement with Iran, including no compensation payments, removal of 400 kilograms of uranium, limiting nuclear infrastructure to a single facility, releasing less than 25% of frozen assets, and suspension of certain activities. [BFW]

  • Iran's foreign minister said a lack of trust is the biggest obstacle in negotiations to end the war with the US, citing contradictory messages that have made Tehran reluctant about American intentions. [APW]

  • Iran would be open to diplomatic help, particularly from China, to help ease tensions. [APW]

Hormuz Chokepoint

  • Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz will flow once the conflict with the US and Israel is over, but the sides are no closer to resolving their differences. [BN]

  • Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, with only limited vessel movements observed and most tied to Iranian-linked shipping. [BN]

  • A Vietnam-bound supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude, which was halted by US forces after crossing the Strait of Hormuz, has resumed its journey after getting clearance. [BN]

Gulf Attacks

  • A drone strike caused a fire at an electrical generator outside Abu Dhabi's Barakah nuclear power plant on Sunday, with no injuries reported and no impact on radiological safety. [BFW] [APW]

  • The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia carried out multiple strikes against Iran after their countries were attacked by the regime in the early days of the war. [WSJ]

  • Iran seized a support vessel owned by a Chinese security firm near the Strait of Hormuz, appearing to signal it is unwilling to permit armed protection even for ships sailing on behalf of its strongest global backer. [WSJ]

Economic Impact

  • Iraq is currently pumping just 1.4 million barrels a day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the knock-on impact on production facilities.

  • Israel's economy contracted 3.3% in the first quarter in annualized terms, deeper than the expected 2% drop, due to security-related shutdowns from the war with Iran.

  • The Philippines' gross gaming revenue fell 16% in the first quarter due to economic headwinds from the Iran war impact. [BFW]

Diplomatic Signals

  • Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been named Iran's special envoy for China affairs. [BFW]

  • President Trump returned from a two-day summit with China's Xi Jinping, where both agreed the strait should be open but made no apparent progress toward that goal. [BN]

Energy Market

Brent Crude

Professional subscribers can read the latest Hormuz reports from Wall Street at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 08:59

Most Americans Can't Afford New Homes

Zero Hedge -

Most Americans Can't Afford New Homes

Most Americans can’t afford a new home.

A new analysis from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows that 65% of U.S. households are priced out of newly built homes, based on current prices and mortgage rates.

In some parts of the country, the situation is even more extreme. More than 80% of households can’t afford a new home, highlighting how widespread the affordability gap has become.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Dorosthy Neufeld, shows where Americans are being priced out and where barriers to homeownership are highest.

Ranked: Where Americans Are Most Priced Out of New Homes

At the extreme end, buying a new home is nearly out of reach. In New Hampshire, 83.4% of households are priced out of a new median-priced home.

In total, 11 states have at least 80% of households locked out.

This table shows the share of households priced out of new homes by state in 2026. A household is considered “priced out” if total housing costs—principal, interest, taxes, and insurance—exceed 28% of income, based on median new home prices and a 6% mortgage rate.

State % of Households
Priced Out of New Homes Median New Home Price Income Needed to Qualify New Hampshire 83.4% $677,982 $211,080 Hawaii 83.0% $884,781 $234,818 Maine 82.7% $548,493 $160,714 Alaska 82.2% $627,077 $188,313 Connecticut 81.8% $696,752 $224,811 Wyoming 81.8% $580,627 $164,982 Montana 81.5% $495,610 $141,997 Oregon 81.0% $608,135 $173,717 New York 80.5% $656,108 $204,163 Vermont 80.1% $580,627 $181,064 Pennsylvania 80.0% $528,370 $160,900 Massachusetts 79.8% $836,236 $246,370 Wisconsin 77.3% $485,449 $149,085 Ohio 76.5% $443,646 $137,310 Washington 76.1% $649,812 $185,213 Colorado 75.1% $644,149 $179,928 Kansas 73.4% $401,237 $128,372 Rhode Island 72.9% $578,724 $174,451 South Carolina 72.5% $421,098 $118,180 New Mexico 71.7% $362,847 $104,055 Illinois 71.3% $428,712 $143,374 Michigan 71.3% $371,503 $122,158 Kentucky 71.3% $398,741 $109,299 Florida 71.1% $429,644 $127,139 Indiana 70.7% $418,993 $123,219 District of Columbia 70.1% $836,441 $232,260 Iowa 70.0% $348,337 $120,598 Arkansas 70.0% $381,881 $100,780 Alabama 69.2% $375,944 $106,586 New Jersey 69.1% $527,069 $172,356 Utah 68.2% $531,151 $145,638 Tennessee 67.7% $399,580 $111,631 Oklahoma 67.6% $351,771 $107,846 Arizona 66.6% $446,796 $122,364 Missouri 66.6% $371,515 $111,332 Idaho 66.4% $430,280 $117,615 North Carolina 66.4% $394,058 $112,263 Louisiana 66.2% $318,728 $95,895 California 65.6% $545,892 $153,471 Nevada 65.5% $420,782 $115,555 West Virginia 64.8% $308,607 $88,071 Texas 64.5% $369,798 $117,131 Georgia 62.5% $374,579 $109,329 Minnesota 62.1% $402,209 $122,025 Nebraska 62.0% $328,603 $107,185 South Dakota 62.0% $346,894 $106,233 North Dakota 61.4% $382,451 $116,480 Mississippi 61.1% $266,837 $80,174 Virginia 58.9% $429,184 $122,542 Maryland 58.5% $432,949 $127,559 Delaware 56.0% $376,478 $104,282

While high-cost states like Hawaii and Massachusetts rank among the least affordable, others such as Maine and Wyoming show that affordability pressures are no longer limited to major metro areas.

Affordability Isn’t Just a Coastal Problem

The most striking takeaway is how universal the problem has become.

Even in lower-cost states like Mississippi ($267K) and West Virginia ($309K), a majority of households are still priced out new homes. While buyers need under $90,000 in income—compared to over $200,000 in the least affordable markets—that threshold remains out of reach for many.

In other words, moving to a cheaper state is no longer a reliable solution. Instead, the data points to a deeper issue, which is that incomes have not kept pace with rising housing costs across the country.

While existing homes can be more affordable than new construction, this data highlights a key constraint: much of the new housing supply entering the market is already out of reach for most households.

The Bigger Picture

As new home prices continue to outpace income growth, the gap between who can and can’t afford newly built homes is widening. That shift is reshaping where Americans live, how they build wealth, and whether homeownership is attainable at all.

If even the most affordable states are out of reach for most households looking at new homes, the question becomes harder to ignore: where can buyers realistically go next?

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on where wealth is moving in America.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 08:45

Is A Future War Between The US And Europe Unavoidable?

Zero Hedge -

Is A Future War Between The US And Europe Unavoidable?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

For those who might have been out of the loop over the past few months, there is a war going on between the US and Europe. Largely, it’s western European governments that are the problem – They started the conflict, they continue to perpetuate the conflict, and they tend to cry victim when they suffer any consequences for it.

It’s clear that the European elites have a distaste for US policy. From anti-woke reforms and immigration restrictions to geopolitical interactions, when Americans voted en masse to remove the far-left Biden regime, Europe became an overnight enemy. I think it’s important to understand that the European leadership does do NOT view the Trump Administration as their primary threat. No, they view YOU as their primary threat.

American conservatives, nationalists, patriots, truth activists, etc. are the target of an international demonization campaign. And, as long as we hold sway in American politics, they will treat the US as a potential enemy.

Since 2014, Western European progressives (globalists) have been pursuing a multicultural blitzkrieg of their own respective populations. Open borders and mass immigration from largely Islamic countries became the political standard, with many European citizens suckered or shamed into compliance using two big lies:

Lie #1: Native Europeans are responsible for offering reparations to third worlders for centuries of “colonialism” and decades of war in the Middle East.

Lie #2: Mass immigration is vital to European economies because of cascading population decline and shrinking labor force.

For a decade this has been the methodology in Europe with increasingly horrific results (including a massive spike in sexual assaults and knife crimes).

To address the first lie, the vast majority of migrants entering Europe from the third world are not traveling from war torn countries. This narrative was a fabrication by liberals in Europe in order to grease the wheels for public support of open borders. Furthermore, the argument that western nations are somehow required to compensate the rest of the world for their geopolitical success is a fallacy.

We don’t owe anyone anything and we’re not required to take on immigrants for any reason, ever.

The second lie is much more complicated. Europe does not need immigrants to reinforce the economy, but what if they are useful for something else? An agenda which is not yet clear?

It has long been my position that the globalists in Europe intend on integrating into a wider opposition bloc, a coalition against nationalism, free markets, meritocracy, free democracy, etc. Evidence suggests that this coalition will include elements of Asia and their eyes on resource rich regions of Africa.

Russia is a wild card.

Europe’s leaders are ravenous, they want a greater war and they see Ukraine as the best opportunity. That said, this does not mean Russia is our friend.

I believe European leaders (much like leftists in the US) want the establishment of a “new world order” in which national borders are erased and green authoritarian socialism is enforced under a globally centralized bureaucracy. There are many ways to go about achieving this agenda.

For example, the globalists have tried implementing international climate change laws and carbon controls as a means to limit industry and dominate energy resources. I would argue that this plan has failed as it becomes more and more clear to the public that global warming science is mostly propaganda. The majority of the opposition to the carbon agenda has come from the US.

They tried medical tyranny, using pandemic hysteria through perpetual lockdowns and vaccine passports. This also failed, with twenty-two red states blocking the mandates. If they couldn’t get the US to comply, then the rest of the world would see that a nation could operate perfectly fine without authoritarian micromanagement.

They also tried to lure the US into a war in Ukraine to function as a meat shield against Russia. This would trap America in a perpetual quagmire in the best case scenario, weakening the US while Europe is strengthened through years of resource infusions. This plan also seems to have failed. The American public has zero interest in entering the Ukrainian theater or going to war with Russia without a substantial reason.

A fourth tactic is mass immigration, which has been much more successful. The US was almost overrun under the Biden Administration and now we are faced with a long uphill battle to deport millions of illegals. On the upside, border crossings have dropped by 95% and he majority of the citizenry now supports deportations.

Europe has been overwhelmed by a third world incursion. Between 50 million and 60 million migrants now reside in the region, making up around 20% of Western Europe’s total population. But is this just globalist sabotage of the west? Or, does this army of migrants serve another purpose?

As an economic resource they are a net negative. If the idea is for migrants to increase the labor pool and fill traditional jobs, then there is no positive return. Germany’s unemployment rate has climbed to 6.4% and 54% of the unemployed are migrants. These people they take far more in welfare subsidies than they contribute in economic activity.

The same goes for Spain, where the unemployment rate is 10%, yet the far-left Spanish government continues to flood the country with foreigners. The UK’s unemployment rate has climbed to 5% and 22% of the unemployed are foreign nationals on the take.

The decline is present all across the EU; economic growth is stagnating. So, why would the elites view migrants as a resource rather than mere tools for deconstructing western society? I would ask: What if a broad population increase is useful for events that have not yet occurred?

What if world war is still on the table, or an economic collapse followed by globalist consolidation? What if European leaders see millions of extra bodies as a valuable resource to feed that war, or control the citizenry at home? Is mass immigration just about cultural replacement? Or, are third worlders being lured into the west with promises of easy plunder, only to be caught up as cannon fodder in a future conflict?

Have the globalists placed their bets on foreign hordes and the power of cheap labor (or cheap soldiers) as the key to victory?

This brings us to what appears to be the US strategy in preparation for the schism, and it’s not hard to see, it involves oil. The move on Iran is clearly the catalyst for a US program of energy dominance. Consider for a moment the insane geopolitical changes and energy market mutations that have happened in just the past few months.

Venezuela is now under new leadership and shipping oil to the US, while China has mostly been cut out. Trump has been engaging with Panama to dramatically reduce Chinese influence over canal operations, again, cutting the CCP out of the western hemisphere.

Trump’s visit to China this week was filled with grand gestures and diplomatic talk for the cameras, but what really happened behind closed doors? One has to expect that the CCP is very unhappy.

Canada under globalist Mark Carney refuses to negotiate a tariff deal with the US and is trying to form bilateral trade agreements with Europe and China (to Canada’s detriment). This could lead to direct hostilities between the US and Canada if Carney tries to use oil agreements as leverage against Trump, or if he tries to give China access to Canadian soil.

The war with Iran has led to the UAE leaving OPEC, which essentially signals the end of OPEC and an incoming flood of oil to global markets at lower prices once the war is over (which the US will benefit from). It’s a shock in energy markets that has not happened in decades. It also disrupts the globalist climate agenda and their bid for artificial scarcity.

Iran is where the division between the globalists in Europe and conservatives in the US becomes undeniable. Why didn’t European elites immediately jump on board with the Iran war and the effort to control the Strait of Hormuz. They supported every other war in the Middle East from 2001 onward. With Iran, they’ve tried to undermine the US every step of the way.

We know for a fact that Europe’s leadership is devoid of moral principle or conditions of conscience. Their rhetoric and behavior when it comes to Iran and the Hormuz indicates they want the US to fail, not because they disagree with the war, but because they don’t want the US to gain an edge in energy dominance.

US operations against the regimes in Venezuela and Iran are choking energy supplies to China (the most useful economic and military ally for Europe in the event of conflict with the US). This is detrimental to the Europeans IF they are preparing for deeper hostilities with the US in the future.

NATO is now likely to break apart. Trump is threatening to pull troops from Europe and may shut down military bases entirely. Tariff salvos are going to increase. European governments are cracking down on their own citizens for expressing conservative and nationalist views. The lines are forming.

I would not be surprised to see talk of kinetic conflict between America and Europe in the next few years. Unless, something spectacular happens in the near term and the citizens of Europe take their countries back (most EU countries have to wait until 2027-2029 for elections). After endless abuse by the liberal establishment, if there was a war, millions of Europeans would likely welcome the US with open arms.

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 07:00

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus

Financial Armageddon -


Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.






Dump the Dollar before Bank Runs start in America -- Economic Collapse 2020

Financial Armageddon -












We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

Hillary Clinton's Top Secret Files Revealed Here

Financial Armageddon -

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.





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