Fed Hikes Rates For First Time Since July 2023, Signals 1 More Hike In 2026

Tl;dr: As the market expected, The Fed hiked rates by 25bps (for the first time since July 2023) despite a trend lower in CPI over the last three months.

Today's decision was unanimous and the 'Dots' signal one more hike in 2026.

The Fed members increased their GDP outlooks, lowered their unemployment forecasts, but hiked their inflation outlooks...

The big question for today of course, assuming they do hike, is whether this is likely to be a “one and done” move.

Quick reminder:

• In 2024, the Powell Fed cut 50bps 2 months before the presidential election with core CPI at 3.3%

• In 2026, the Warsh Fed hikes 25bps 2 months before the midterms with core CPI at 2.4%

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC Meeting on July 29th, a lot has happened amid the supposed Summer doldrums, the dollar is lower while the anti-fiat trades (gold, bitcoin) and crude are all significantly higher with bonds the worst performers...

Stagflationary signals abound as inflation data has surprised to the upside while growth data has surprised to the downside since the last FOMC

But, the market is all-in, betting on a 25bps hike today - 95% versus 70% at the last FOMC, with a lot of noise in between. Dec odds are up from 40% to 70%. The market is pricing in 3.5 hikes into September of next year as the peak of the cycle...

So, before we get the decision, putting things in context, if Warsh were to hold rates here, it would be BY FAR the greatest surprise The Fed has ever hit the market with...

The Fed has historically always gone when market pricing is this high. That’s on top of a substantial hawkish repricing that has recently taken two-year yields to their highest since 2024 and pushed the 10-year through 5% to levels unseen since 2007.

So, what did he do?

Statement

After three dissents (in favor of a hike) in July, the Eccles Building establishment appears to have won the tug of war against The White House, with The Fed hiking rates 25bps (as fully priced in by the market)

• *FED UNANIMOUSLY RAISES BENCHMARK RATE 25 BPS TO 3.75%-4% RANGE

• *FED: RATE HIKE WILL SUPPORT `TIMELIER' RETURN TO 2% INFLATION

Dots

In June, 9 members saw at least 1 rate-hike in 2026:

• 3 hikes - 1 (Jun)

• 2 hikes - 5 (Jun)

• 1 hike - 3 (Jun)

• No rate change - 8 (Jun)

• 1 cut - 1 (Jun)

Now in September, with 1 hike in the books, these are the number of hikes/cuts left in 2026

• 2 more hikes - 4

• 1 more hike - 12

• No rate change - 2

• No one sees rate-cuts

So the median dot suggest one more rate hike in 2026...

1 member sees four rate-cuts in 2027 and 3 see 2 cuts

• 1 hike in 2027 - 8

• No rate-change in 2027 - 6

• 2 cuts - 3

• 4 cuts - 1

Only 18 of 19 officials submitted their 'dots' with some suggesting Warsh himself did not contribute again.

SEP

The Fed members increased their GDP outlooks, lowered their unemployment forecasts, but hiked their inflation outlooks...

Full Redline

Key changes:

• Addition of "domestic spending has been resilient"

• Capital investment reduced from "strong" to "robust"

• Adds that "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal"

The big question for today of course, assuming they do hike, is whether this is likely to be a “one and done” move.

We haven’t seen one of those this century so far.

Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank catalogues that there were a few of those in the 1980s and 1990s.

Outside of them, "the shortest cycle on record remains the four hikes of 1986-87."

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/16/2026 - 14:00

DOJ Accuses Russian Intel Ring Of Plotting Murder On American Soil

In something that sounds straight from the plot of "Homeland" or the more recent CIA thriller "Lioness", the Trump administration has charged multiple members of Russia's intelligence services with running a "global assassination network" that targeted Kremlin critics.

The Department of Justice has newly revealed and alleged that one murder plot even took place on American soil over the summer.

Russian FSB HQ, Moscow. Associated Press

The fugitives have been named but have not been apprehended, and are still at large. A murder-for-hire plot is detailed in an indictment which was unsealed Tuesday by federal prosecutors in New York.

The plot was never followed through on, but a Russian dissident is said to have been targeted, during which time a Brooklyn man was recruited by Cuban and Venezuelan individuals - both which were ultimately being run by a Russian intelligence handler - but the Brooklyn man is said to have gotten cold feet when asked to carry out an assassination.

The five defendants are all believed to live in Russia, and are part of what court documents call the "RIS Network," including a 63-year-old former Russian intelligence colonel named Yuri Khrameev, as well as his son Kirill.

According to a summary of the wild plot and allegations:

It marks the latest alleged attempt by a U.S. adversary to crack down on dissidents abroad, including in the United States and NATO-allied countries.

One of the murder-for-hire plots took place in July and August of this year, the indictment says. The Venezuelan operative and one of the Cuban operatives allegedly recruited a Brooklyn resident to take photos and videos of two locations associated with an unnamed Russian dissident, promising him $1,000 to $1,500 to carry out the "gravely serious work." Another $40,000 was offered to "eliminate" or "disappear" the target of the surveillance.

The operatives believed the Russian dissident lived in the Washington, D.C., area, Attorney General Todd Blanche told reporters at a briefing Tuesday.  The Brooklyn resident was willing to take photos, the indictment said, but expressed unwillingness to "do the other stuff" — as in, kill the dissident. The operatives then allegedly asked the Brooklyn resident if he knew of anybody else who was interested.

"Let me know as soon as possible because I have a chain and my boss has questions," one of the Cuban recruiters wrote, according to the indictment. "I have people in Mexico right now and they're delayed. I only need a response to know if someone can do the work. It doesn't have to be today or tomorrow just need to know if the[y] can."

Some skepticism is of course always warranted when dealing with official US claims related to what Russian intelligence is up to.

$25,000 to unalive someone for being a “bad guy” who was “telling lies about Russia.” And get this, they were also “spreading dirt about my country” and “distorting history.”

It reads like a cartoon. https://t.co/BLhHLoSxUF

— Aaron Andrew Hickman (@hickman0000) September 16, 2026

For example, the latter part of the above - where a foreign agent reportedly broadly asks his asset whether he knows anyone else that can do the killing - seems amateurish, dubious and needlessly high risk.

The Kremlin has on Wednesday rejected the claims, describing that there's simply no evidence to even warrant a serious explanation:

Until "any plausible evidence" emerges, there is no point in commenting on statements by the US Department of Justice about the exposure of a number of individuals allegedly working for Russian intelligence, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

"Until we have heard and seen any credible evidence and arguments based on something tangible, we do not consider it necessary to comment on this news," he noted in response to a request to comment on a statement by US Attorney General Todd Blanche, who said that a number of individuals working for Russian intelligence had been exposed in the country.

New: The Russian government backed a murder-for-hire plot on U.S. soil, according to this new indictment from the DOJ.

cc @CourthouseNews pic.twitter.com/1EcQctp8Rm

— Erik Uebelacker (@Uebey) September 15, 2026

Washington has over recent years lobbed significant accusations of espionage and nefarious recruitment schemes against Russian intelligence, especially since the Ukraine war began. Russian intel seems much more active in Europe, however.

The other country which tends to get named in these reports is Iran. The Trump administration has even accused the IRGC of its own assassin-for-hire plot against the president himself.

* * * Add two to cart

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/16/2026 - 13:55

Today July 19 2013 Here is the news conference by Governor Rick Snyder and emergency manager Kevyn Orr explaining why they claimed bankruptcy.

http://www.whec.com/news/stories/S310...
Rochester, N.Y. -- She says she had no warning that someone was going to search her car after she left to catch her flight. So the woman contacted News10NBC.

We found out it happened to her because she valet parked her car. Those are the only cars that get inspected.

So if security feels it is necessary to search some cars in the name of safety, why not search all of them?

Laurie Iacuzza walked to her waiting car at the Greater Rochester International Airport after returning from a trip and that's when she found it -- a notice saying her car was inspected after she left for her flight. She said, “I was furious. They never mentioned it to me when I booked the valet or when I picked up the car or when I dropped it off.”

Henry Kissinger actually publicly stated that those who oppose the New World Order are "terrorists".

Henry Kissinger in a speech given in Istanbul, Turkey on May 31, 2007, while the Bilderberg conference was simultaneously underway, just a few miles down the road.

"In the Middle East, we live in a different world. The nations do not represent historic entities in the same sense that European nations did. Turkey of course does, and Iran in a considerable extent does. But in the region in between, the borders were drawn by the victors of World War I on the basis largely of what would facilitate their influence. So therefore, the identities of these countries, and of their borders, can be challenged more easily."

"What we in America call terrorists are really groups of people that reject the international system, and they're trying to regroup it to a radical Islamic fundamentalists kind."

Detroit has become the largest city in Unites States history to file for bankruptcy after decades of decline and mismanagement rendered the city insolvent. Michigan's governor, Rick Snyder, said on Thursday that there was no other option to tackle the city's $18.5bn of debts. Al Jazeera's Caroline Malone reports.

Detroit has become the largest city in Unites States history to file for bankruptcy after decades of decline and mismanagement rendered the city insolvent.William Black, a professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, talks to Al Jazeera about Detroit filing bankruptcy.

7/18/13 - Anti-government activist Adam Kokesh, who is currently jailed on drug charges and is facing a firearms charge in D.C., says he will someday run for President on a platform of abolishing the federal government. Since July 9th, 31-year old Adam Kokesh has been incarcerated in a cell in the Fairfax County jail which measures seven by seven-and-a-half feet.

On Independence Day, Kokesh had a colleague record a video of the pro-gun activist loading a shotgun on D.C.'s Freedom Plaza. The District has strict gun control laws that generally forbid the carrying of firearms. U.S. Park Police and D.C.'s Metropolitan Police Department opened an investigation.

Several days later, U.S. Park Police used a flash grenade when their SWAT team served a search warrant at Kokesh's home in Herndon, Va. Kokesh was arrested when officers said they found hallucinogenic mushrooms at the house.

In an exclusive jailhouse interview, Adam Kokesh denies any connection to the drugs. Here is part of the transcript of that interview with Kokesh: "If they found a stash of magic mushrooms in my house, they were not mine. ANY IDEA WHOSE THEY WERE, OR WHY THEY WERE IN YOUR HOUSE? I'm pretty confident that, whether or not they found anything, the full paper bags that [U.S. Park Police] brought into my house would insure that they had charges to bring against me. ARE YOU IMPLYING THAT THOSE DRUGS WERE PLANTED? Yes."

Kokesh, who has been arrested several times before by U.S. Park Police, says that agency has a "vendetta" against him, but he believes the evidence in the drug case is weak.

Federal officers have now filed a weapons charge against Kokesh for wielding the shotgun in D.C. on the Fourth of July. Here's more of the interview: "WAS IT A REAL SHOTGUN AND WERE THEY REAL SHELLS GOING INTO IT? Yes. ON THE VIDEO YOU POSTED? Yes. YOU DID KNOW THAT WAS ILLEGAL IN D.C.? It's called civil disobedience."

Adam Kokesh believes the Second Amendment to the Constitution will provide him a successful defense against the D.C. gun charge.

The former U.S. Marine who served in Iraq plans to someday bring his anti-government views before voters. "ARE YOU RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT? Yes sir, in 2020 on the platform of: orderly dissolution of the United States government. WHY IS THAT A GOOD IDEA? Why is having a federal government a good idea at this point?"

Adam Kokesh believes the U.S. military is more harmful than helpful to American security, and the government -- as a whole -- has burdened its citizenry with debt.

Adam Kokesh is 70% disabled from his term of military service. He says he lives only on that money.

His supporters, through their website, adamvstheman.com, are asking supporters to send money for bail and send money so a private attorney can be hired. Kokesh is currently being represented by a public defender.

Kokesh remains in custody in the Fairfax County Adult Detention Center, and, if he is freed on bond, he faces extradition to D.C. to face the gun charge.

July 18, 2013 - Bill O'Reilly Interviews Donald Trump on Economy, China, and Obamacare



Trump would be a hell of a lot better president then Obama, at least he is willing to do what needs to be done instead of creating some BS healthcare system .He's a businessman, he knows how to make deals, he will get tough on China (even if he has ties made in China in which I don't think he knew or maybe he thought we're a screwed country so why not just sell them to stupid people who will only buy them anyway), I don't believe what they say about his net worth (in which they say isn't worth much). Trump has a big fat heart inside I believe it.

Here it comes Detroit about to be largest Bankrupt City .The city of Detroit files for Chapter 9 federal bankruptcy protection, making the automobile capital and onetime music powerhouse the country's largest-ever municipal bankruptcy case. WSJ Global Autos Editor Joe White reports.


This news really ruined Obama's golf game today ... ya America is crumbling apart , but we have 15,000 Russian soldiers to help fix it I hear!!

Steve Keen Exposes Financial Fallacies and Debates the Mortgage Debt Jubilee!


"I don't understand gold." Yes, that's what our beloved Fed Chairman actually told Congress today. Maybe that's why Germany wants 300 tonnes of it back. That would be gold the Fed is holding on its behalf. We have just one word for you Finance Minister Schaeuble: tungsten. But don't worry, Chairman Bernanke assured the S&P 500 -- now at all time highs -- that the monetary QE stimulus will continue until the economy can stand on its own feet. Such anthropomorphization is quite quaint for an econometrician, isn't it? We debunk the likes of Bernanke and talk about the mortgage jubilee with economist Steve Keen.

And, Jamie Dimon can't seem to find a chair that isn't the hot seat. JP Morgan is about to shell out a few hundred million in a settlement with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. That would be for allegedly manipulating energy markets in California, Enron style. Barclays already settled for $435 million. And a similar settlement for JP Morgan would amount to -- well just one sixtieth -- of its $26 billion in revenues reported last Friday. No word yet on how much it actually profited from allegedly bilking Americans.

Finally, subprime is back. The Consumer Financial Protection Board just strengthened mortgage underwriting standards. But if you don't fall under the new rules, don't worry. Because the guy who helped write the rules at the CFPB just went private -- and started a company that will service the very market his old regulatory body now excludes. And, yes, they're even providing interest-only financing -- because that worked so well in 2008. You can't make this stuff up! Perianne breaks down the boom-bust cycle.

Unorthodox ufologist Norio Hayakawa presented his views and research on UFOs, clandestine government activities, and the mysterious Dulce, New Mexico area, rumored to house an underground base. The state of New Mexico itself has been a hotbed of paranormal and UFO activity going back to 1947, he reported. Starting with the Roswell Incident, "the year 1947 was the beginning of a conditioning of belief systems...carefully orchestrated for future events," he commented.

He believes the Roswell crash was staged "by an unknown intelligence" in collusion with an elite part of the US government. UFOs are neither flying nor objects, but rather part of an intelligence that co-exists with us and has the ability to materialize, he explained.

Hayakawa was one of the first to bring Project Bluebeam to public attention in his 1995 documentary video Secrets of Dreamland, which suggested that a covert government would have sufficient technology to artificially simulate a UFO threat in order to bring about a forced global unity.

Regarding Dulce, he has not found direct physical evidence for an underground base there, yet, there have been many strange reports and sightings in the area which encompasses the Jicarilla Apache Reservation. "I think there's a reality on another level that we may not be able to see with our physical eyes" and a base could exist at Dulce in a non-physical realm, he shared.

Biography:

Norio Hayakawa calls himself an unorthodox ufologist and activist. He has spent almost 10 years specifically investigating Area 51 in Nevada. He says that there is much more to Area 51 than just superficial facts made public about this well-known base. In 1990 he also began to investigate the strange goings-on at Dulce, New Mexico. After more than 45 years of researching the UFO phenomenon, he says that a conditioning of belief systems have been orchestrated since 1947 by a manipulative force that is preparing mankind for a near future mysterious scenario. The ingrained and "altered" realities behind both Area 51 and Dulce will play a role in that scenario. In March of 2009 he organized the first-ever Underground Base conference in Dulce, New Mexico.

Wikipedia
The term shadow government (also cryptocracy) besides its party political meaning can also refer to what is sometimes called "the secret government" or "the invisible government," an idea based on the notion that real and actual political power does not reside with publicly elected representatives (for example the United States Congress (or the Cabinet of the United Kingdom) but with private individuals who are exercising power behind the scenes beyond the scrutiny of democratic institutions. According to this belief the official elected government is in reality subservient to the shadow government who are the true executive power.

Conspiracy-oriented literature postulates the existence of a secret government who are the true power behind the apparent government. Examples of such literature include works by Dan Smoot, William Guy Carr, Jim Marrs, Carroll Quigley, Gary Allen, Des Griffin, David Icke, Michael A. Hoffman II and John Coleman. Some of these authors believe members of the secret government may represent or be agents for groups such as the Council on Foreign Relations, The Royal Institute for International Affairs, The Trilateral Commission, the Bilderberg Group, CIA and MI6 in co-operation with international banks and financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements. Also popularizing the idea was the hit US television show, The X-Files.

In his novel Coningsby, Benjamin Disraeli stated that "The world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes". One definition of a shadow government is a "secret government within the government". This secret government is the "real" government that controls the legitimate and visible government's agenda. The network of people constituting this secret government are bound by some common agenda known only to each other and/or the people they represent. The agenda may be that of a secret society who have infiltrated the government (examples include Freemasons, Skull and Bones men or Illuminatists). In this case the agenda of the network is known only to those members who are bound by an oath of secrecy.

The shadow government is also considered by popular authors[who?] to be behind black budget projects and covert operations.

One of the most popular conspiracy theories about a shadow government is the notion of a "Zionist Occupation Government

Travelers on their way to Britain might want to leave their phones at home after it was revealed they could be seized and browsed through by police. And amazingly it's totally legal, as Tesa Arcilla reports.


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