Treasury Secretary Says Order On Citizenship Proof For Banking Is 'In Process'

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday confirmed that an executive order mandating banks to collect citizenship information on customers is underway.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addresses journalists in Paris on March 16, 2026. Ludovic Marin / AFP via Getty Images

“It’s in process. And I don’t think it’s unreasonable, because, why don’t we have information on who’s in our banking system?” he told Semafor in an April 13 interview, responding to whether the Trump administration was working on the banking order.

“I have a place in the UK; they want to know who lives in every apartment—and how do we know that it’s not part of a foreign terrorist organization?” he added.

At least one Republican lawmaker has asked the Trump administration to implement such an order, and The Wall Street Journal reported, citing anonymous sources, that banks could be tasked with requiring people to submit passports under the policy.

In a post issued on X in October 2025, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) included a letter he sent to Bessent urging the secretary to carry out a “comprehensive review of current rules that allow illegal aliens to obtain financial services and access to the U.S. banking system.”

“Access to the American banking system is a privilege that should be reserved for those who respect our laws and sovereignty,” Cotton wrote in the letter. “When individuals are allowed to open accounts without verifying legal status, we are permitting illegal aliens to establish financial roots and integrate economically, all while bypassing the legal channels that millions use properly.”

Cotton asked whether the administration could implement the order under the USA PATRIOT Act, a Bush administration-era law enacted in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, or the Bank Secrecy Act, a 1970 anti-money laundering law.

The Trump administration has prioritized cracking down on illegal immigration as well as entitlement fraud. Since he took office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has issued multiple executive orders and memoranda to boost the deportation of illegal immigrants and end temporary deportation protection programs for certain countries.

Trump has also called on Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, which has stalled in the Senate, to require photo IDs for voting and proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote.

In a post last month, the president said that there would be no deal to end the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unless some Democrats join Republicans to pass the measure.

The bill must include “their approval of Voter I.D., (with picture!), Citizenship to Vote, No Mail-In Voting (with exceptions), All Paper Ballots, No Men In Women’s Sports, and No Transgender MUTILIZATION of our precious children,” he wrote in a Truth Social post on March 22. He also called on congressional lawmakers to stay in Washington during the Easter recess, although the lawmakers ultimately went on their break.

Last month, the Trump administration established an anti-fraud task force that would investigate instances of illegal immigrants engaging in benefits fraud as well as other forms of waste and abuse.

The Epoch Times contacted the White House for comment on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 17:00

Mullin Blasts Biden Admin After DHS Employee Killed By Naturalized Felon

On Monday, Lauren Bullis, a 40-year-old Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employee, was "brutally shot and stabbed to death" while walking her dog, and DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin is blaming the Biden administration for her murder.

Olaolukitan Adon Abel (left) and Lauren Bullis (Photos: DHS)

Bullis, an auditor with the DHS Office of Inspector General, was found on Battle Forest Drive in DeKalb County, Georgia, around 6:50 a.m. Witnesses saw a man standing over her body before he fled. She was not the only victim. According to reports, a neighbor heard the gunfire and ran out of her house to see what was happening. The neighbor told local media that it appeared Adon-Abel was attempting to sexually assault Bullis.

Before Bullis died, police discovered another woman had been shot multiple times outside a Checkers & Rally’s restaurant. She later succumbed to her injuries. Then, in Brookhaven, a homeless man was ambushed while sleeping outside a shopping center. He was shot several times and remains in critical condition.

That suspect is Olaolukitan Adon-Abel, 26, born in the United Kingdom and naturalized as a U.S. citizen in 2022 under the Biden administration. Adon-Abel was arrested on Monday and now faces two counts of murder, aggravated assault, possession of a firearm during the commission of a crime, and possession of a firearm by a convicted felon. As a convicted felon, he not only shouldn’t have had a gun, but according to federal law, he should not have been a citizen either.

Adon-Abel had convictions for sexual battery, battery against a police officer, obstruction, assault with a deadly weapon, and vandalism — a trail of violence spanning years. And yet, in 2022, the Biden administration's U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services granted him full citizenship. The legal standard for naturalization, as outlined in 8 U.S.C. § 1427, requires applicants to demonstrate "good moral character." Someone who has assaulted a police officer and committed sexual battery should not clear that bar. 

"Yesterday, a DHS employee, Lauren Bullis, was brutally shot and stabbed to death by Olaolukitan Adon Abel, a 26-year-old born in the United Kingdom, who was naturalized by the Biden Administration in 2022," DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said in a statement to Fox News. "Since President Trump took office, USCIS has implemented measures to ensure individuals with criminal histories and who otherwise lack good moral character do not attain citizenship."

Mullin continued, “He possesses a prior criminal record that includes convictions for sexual battery, battery against a police officer, obstruction, and assault with a deadly weapon, vandalism and now stands accused of murdering DHS employee Lauren Bullis by shooting and stabbing her while she walked her dog. He has also been arrested for the murder of an unidentified woman whom he reportedly shot outside a Checkers, before randomly shooting a homeless man multiple times outside a Kroger in Brookhaven."

He added, “These acts of pure evil have devastated our Department, and my prayers are with the families of the victims.”

The Biden administration routinely dismissed concerns about immigration vetting as fearmongering. Critics who raised red flags about naturalization standards were called nativists or worse. But the standard is not political — it is statutory. Federal law bars naturalization for individuals who cannot demonstrate good moral character, and multiple violent criminal convictions are about as clear a disqualifier as exists in the code.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 16:40

White House: 'Era Of Amnesty Is Over'

Authored by Catherine Salgado via PJ Media,

“No more activist judges shielding criminal illegals. No more endless delays. Only results.” The Trump White House is celebrating multiple massive immigration enforcement wins that signal the era of mass migration and mass amnesty is over.

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Since Donald Trump came back into office, federal authorities have removed three million illegal aliens from the United States through ICE deportations or voluntary deportations, which is the biggest reduction in illegal migration in modern history, according to a White House press release on April 9. This is exactly what the American people voted for. This is the sort of reform we hoped to see when immigration became one of the top issues in the 2024 election.

Besides the three million deportees, border officers have not released a single illegal alien into the United States at our borders for 11 straight months. The “era of amnesty is over,” indeed.

The overwhelming majority of asylum claims have long been fraudulent, and that is one major area where the Trump administration implemented reform. The U.S. immigration authority now grants asylum in only 7% of cases, slashing the number of criminals and illegal aliens who tried to use asylum claims as a free ticket into our country. In contrast, under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the government approved over 50% of asylum claims, according to the release.

I will give just two illustrations of why this is a big deal. First, just this week, the U.S. State Department revoked the lawful permanent resident status it had granted to Hamideh Soleimani Afshar, the niece of mass-murdering Iranian jihad leader Qasem Soleimani. Afshar had obtained residency and a life of luxury in the United States by claiming asylum here. Yet she repeatedly returned to Iran and regularly spouted pro-regime propaganda, illustrating how bogus her asylum claim was. And second, back in 2024, an Ecuadoran “asylum seeker” raped a 13-year-old at knifepoint in New York. These are only two examples of how broken our asylum system was before the Trump administration took over.

The White House release also highlighted the following wins:

Deportations and removal orders are surging: In fiscal year 2025, immigration courts issued nearly 500,000 removal orders — a 57% increase over the prior year — as criminal illegals are removed faster and in far greater numbers than ever before.

The massive court backlog is being slashed: Hundreds of thousands of cases have already been cleared since Inauguration Day, with reductions accelerating every month — ending the years-long delays that let illegals remain indefinitely.

And, as noted above, the Trump administration has successfully closed our borders.

The White House press release enthusiastically concluded, “President Trump promised to end the open borders nightmare — and he is delivering on that promise with unrelenting force. The era of catch-and-release, mass releases, and activist judicial amnesty is over.”

As we celebrate the 250th year of America’s existence, there is no better time to reflect on what national sovereignty and security mean.

* * *

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 16:20

Beige Book Confirms Uncertainty, Fuel Costs Surged On Iran War As Economy Grew At "Slight To Modest" Pace

US economic activity continued to increase at a "slight-to-modest" pace across most regions as the war with Iran generated a new wave of uncertainty and higher energy costs, the Federal Reserve said. The just released Beige Book - which featured information compiled by the New York Fed and collected through April 6, capturing the early effects of the war on the US economy - was the first one to discuss the state of the US economy after the Iran war started, and came at time when gas prices sstayed above $4/gal for two weeks after the biggest monthly jump in decades, with March fuel spending up 16% according to Bank of America card spending data.

So far, Bank of America said that discretionary spending remains resilient—but risks rise if Hormuz disruptions persist. The Fed agreed, with the Beige Book reporting that overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts reported little change (San Francisco and St Louis), and two Districts reported slight to modest declines (Boston and New York).

Price growth remained moderate overall, but energy and fuel costs rose “sharply” in all 12 Fed districts, the central bank reported in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts released Wednesday.

“The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture,” the Fed said.

Bloomberg's NLP model that measures net sentiment by evaluating hawkishness (+ score) and dovishness (- score) pictured below. Recent reading comes in at +1.2.

Several policymakers have signaled a preference to keep borrowing costs steady for quite some time while they evaluate the economic data. Officials are expected to leave their benchmark rate unchanged when they meet on April 28-29, according to pricing in futures contracts. A growing number of officials are concerned the war could fuel inflation, and more favored language at their March gathering that would have made it clear the Fed may need to raise interest rates.

Taking a closer look at the Beige Book, the conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture.

• Manufacturing activity rose slightly to moderately in most Districts. Banking sector activity was generally steady with loan demand stable to up moderately.
• On balance, consumer spending increased slightly despite harsh winter weather in some regions and higher fuel prices.
• Many Districts continued to report signs of consumer financial strain, increased price sensitivity, and rising demand at food banks and other social service organizations, while spending among higher-income consumers was resilient.
• Housing market activity softened across several Districts as heightened uncertainty and rising mortgage rates dampened buyer demand.
• Commercial real estate markets improved, with strength in industrial properties, especially data center projects. Office markets saw solid demand for Class A space but weaker demand for lower-tier properties.
• Energy activity was up slightly as oil prices rose, though many producers remained cautious about increasing drilling due to uncertainty about the persistence of higher prices. Agricultural activity was mixed, and several Districts reported that rising crop prices helped offset steep price increases of fertilizer and fuel.
• Business outlooks varied amid widespread uncertainty about future conditions.

In terms of Labor Markets, the Beige Book noted the following: 

• On balance, employment was steady to up slightly during this reporting period, though one District noted a slight decline.
• Most Districts described labor demand as stable, with low turnover, minimal layoffs, and hiring mostly for replacement.
• Several Districts noted increased demand for temporary or contract workers, as firms remained cautious about committing to permanent hires.
• Many Districts reported that labor availability had improved, although difficulty finding some skilled workers, especially in the skilled trades, persisted.
• While most Districts indicated that AI had not yet significantly impacted overall staffing levels, some noted that AI-driven productivity improvements had enabled many firms to delay or reduce hiring. Wages generally continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace.
• Some Districts noted continued wage pressures for some roles in health care and the skilled trades, though overall wage competition remained muted.

Energy prices were sharply higher 

• Price growth mostly remained moderate overall, with the vast majority of Districts reporting moderate increases and others pointing to modest growth. Generally, input cost increases outpaced selling price growth, compressing margins.
• Energy and fuel costs rose sharply in all Districts, attributed to the Middle East conflict, leading to higher freight and shipping costs and higher prices for plastics, fertilizers, and other petroleum-based products.
• Input cost pressures beyond energy-related increases were also widespread. Several Districts reported rising prices for metals due to tariffs, such as steel, copper, and aluminum. Technology costs rose for both hardware and software. Insurance premiums and health care costs continued to climb.

Finally, here are the main highlights by Fed districts:

• Boston: Economic activity declined slightly, employment and wages were flat, and prices rose at a moderate pace. Consumer spending was flat, as was activity in most sectors, but home sales slowed further. The conflict in the Middle East contributed to rising energy prices and created fresh uncertainty, though the outlook remained optimistic on balance.
• New York: Economic activity continued to decline modestly amid heightened uncertainty in large part due to shifts in tariff policy and the Middle East conflict. On balance, employment held steady, and wage growth remained modest. The pace of selling price increases remained moderate, and input price increases picked up markedly. Consumer spending grew slightly. Businesses generally expected little improvement in the months ahead.
• Philadelphia: Economic activity in the Third District grew slightly, down from a modest pace last period. Employment declined slightly, and wages again rose modestly. Prices continued to rise moderately, although cost pressures increased. Activity held steady for nonmanufacturers and increased moderately for manufacturers. Firms expect growth over the next six months, but uncertainty has risen further.
• Cleveland: Fourth District business activity increased modestly, with similar growth expected in the months ahead. Manufacturers reported increased demand, while retailers saw modest declines amid higher fuel prices. Residential real estate rebounded after a harsh winter. Employment grew slightly, and wages increased moderately. Nonlabor costs remained robust, while selling prices grew moderately.
• Richmond: The regional economy continued to grow modestly in recent weeks. Consumer spending on retail, travel, and tourism increased modestly. Nonfinancial service providers also reported modest growth in demand. Other sectors of the regional economy reported little change this cycle. Employment expanded slightly, wages picked up modestly, and price growth remained moderate.
• Atlanta: Economic activity grew at a modest pace. Employment remained flat and wages rose modestly. Prices and input costs also increased modestly. Retail sales and travel continued to expand. On balance, residential and commercial real estate conditions improved. Transportation and manufacturing activity expanded. Energy activity rose, but agricultural conditions were flat.
• Chicago: Economic activity in the Seventh District increased slightly over the reporting period. Manufacturing demand rose modestly; consumer spending increased slightly; construction and real estate activity, employment and business spending were flat on balance; and nonbusiness contacts saw no change in economic activity. Prices rose moderately, wages rose modestly, and financial conditions tightened modestly. Farm income expectations for 2026 declined some.
• St. Louis: Economic activity has remained unchanged since our previous report. Employment levels were unchanged and wage growth was moderate. Prices have risen moderately, but several contacts expressed concern about escalating energy costs. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, yet contacts are attentive to risks to the economy associated with the conflict in the Middle East.
• Minneapolis: District economic activity increased slightly. Employment increased slightly and labor demand turned positive over the past two months. Prices increased modestly overall, but input price pressures intensified as oil price spikes fed through to freight and raw materials. Contacts across industries reported significant uncertainty.
• Kansas City: The Tenth District's economy grew slightly over the reporting period, while employment levels remained flat. Manufacturing firms indicated suppliers have implemented automatic surcharges tied to logistics and energy inputs. District oil and gas activity remains steady. Overall, prices have increased modestly.
• Dallas: Economic activity in the Eleventh District expanded slightly. Manufacturing output growth slowed, while activity in services was largely flat. Energy sector activity ticked up, and bank lending increased on strength in commercial real estate, while home sales were slow. Employment grew slightly, while wages and prices increased modestly to robustly. Outlooks deteriorated amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty and fuel price concerns.
• San Francisco: Economic activity was stable at subdued levels over the reporting period. Employment levels were unchanged on net. Prices rose moderately, driven primarily by higher energy costs, while wages grew slightly. Retail sales grew slightly. Conditions were stable in services and manufacturing, down in agriculture, and mixed in real estate.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 15:45

Russia Vows To 'Fill China's Energy Resource Gap' Amid Hormuz Crisis In Lavrov-Xi Meeting

At a moment it remains a serious open question over just how vulnerable China is to the Hormuz Strait crisis, and now with the US-imposed US naval blockade of the vital oil transit waterway, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is in Beijing pledging energy support to China. 

Lavrov met with President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, during which Xi urged China and Russia to "give full play to the advantages of geographic proximity and complementarity, deepen all-round cooperation and raise the resilience of each other's development."

Russia remains China's top energy supplier. "Both sides should maintain strategic focus, trust each other, support each other, develop together," Xi continued, according to a Chinese state media readout.

via Russian Foreign Ministry

Lavrov in turn told Xi that Chinese-Russian relations play a "stabilizing role in world affairs" at a time of global "chaos and turmoil." This has been a consistent theme on which relations and trust have been built between Beijing and Moscow going back to the start of the Ukraine war over four years ago.

Importantly, after the meeting the Russian foreign minister announced to a press conference that Moscow stands ready to increase energy supplies to China.

"Russia can certainly fill the resource gap that has arisen in China and other countries interested in working with us on an equal and mutually beneficial basis," Lavrov stated.

The two-day Lavrov visit is toward laying the groundwork for an upcoming summit between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. It's expected for the first half of this year, but likely after Trump's upcoming May 14-15 summit with the Chinese leader.

The Hormuz crisis is a threat to Chinese energy given Asia's largest power still depends heavily on global supply routes it does not fully control. While Beijing has for many years sought to diversify through pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, the reality is that those projects take years to build and remain far too limited to replace the volume of oil moving through Hormuz.

However, there's a strong counterargument pushing back against the assumption that Trump's Iran moves will ultimately squeeze and devastate China. Alongside Russia coming to Beijing's side with its recently unsanctioned oil, there are also these aspects to consider:

While China is to some extent dependent on Gulf oil, so is the rest of Asia. While the United States might be insulated from some of the worst consequences of the Hormuz closure, the economies of our Asian allies are not. Asian economies are among the most dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with South Korea receiving around 70 percent and Japan receiving a whopping 95 percent of their oil from the Middle East. The Council on Foreign Relations notes that in 2024, 84 percent of the oil and 83 percent of LNG shipped through Hormuz were bound for Asia. That is not a targeted squeeze. Instead, such a move looks to be made without much heed to Asia at all, hitting the very states Washington is supposedly positioning against Beijing.

China is actually one of the best-positioned countries in Asia to handle this exact crisis because of existing stockpiles, diversified supply chains, a coal-dependent electric grid, and pipeline alternatives. While China is vulnerable, it is more insulated than most of Asia, only receiving around 20 percent of its oil from Hormuz.

There's a certain irony in the fact that an early element of blowback from the Iran war was that Washington scrambled to remove sanctions on Russian crude oil transiting the high seas, to bat down soaring global oil prices, and yet it is this very unsanctioned oil flow which will benefit China.

And the 'unintended consequences' continue to trickle over. The American Conservative writes, "This damage to our Pacific allies is not theoretical. Across Asia, partner governments are already scrambling as their economies face the worst crisis in decades. Asian nations are shortening workweeks and implementing fuel controls, disrupting their economies as tension mounts. Many Asian economies have turned to Russia amid this turmoil, bolstering the economy of another supposed U.S. enemy."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 15:40

Iran War Leads To Fluoride Shortages For Some US Water Utilities

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Multiple water providers have lowered the amount of fluoride they add to water for millions of Americans, amid shortages stemming from the U.S.–Iran war.

The Baltimore City Department of Public Works said on April 13 that it is reducing the level of fluoride from 0.7 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 0.4 mg/L.

The move, officials said, was driven by disruptions to the supply chain caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. A key Israeli supplier, specifically, has been struggling to meet demand.

“This is an adjustment driven solely by supply availability,” Matthew Garbark, director of the Baltimore City Department of Public Works, said in a statement.

“We remain committed to providing safe, high-quality drinking water.”

Some 1.8 million people in and around Baltimore, the most populous city in Maryland, are served water by the city of Baltimore utility.

Fluoride, a mineral, is put in water as a preventative for tooth decay and cavities. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends adding 0.7 mg/L.

WSSC Water, which serves 1.9 million people in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in Maryland, said earlier in April it would be adding only 0.4 mg/L because of “nationwide supply chain disruptions.”

Hydrofluorosilicic acid, an important compound for water fluoridation, has been hard to source amid the war, including from a supplier in Israel, the utility said. Israel is one of the world’s top exporters of fluorosilicic acid, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the United States is among the world’s top five importers of the product.

“This is a temporary adjustment driven solely by supply availability,” Ben Thompson, WSSC Water’s director of production, said in a statement.

“We remain committed to maintaining safe, high-quality drinking water and will restore optimal fluoride levels as soon as supply conditions stabilize.”

In Pennsylvania, the borough of Lititz told its water customers in March that it had to halt fluoridation for a couple of weeks because of supply issues.

As the conflict continues, “there will likely be additional stressors placed on the supply chain, leading to shortages in additional communities,” said Dan Hartnett, chief policy officer for the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies.

A few months’ drop in fluoride levels is probably not a cause for concern for most people, said Dr. Scott Tomar, an American Dental Association community water fluoridation expert. Lower levels can have an impact over the span of years, he said.

Tomar said younger children would be the first to experience tooth decay, because the fluoride strengthens enamel as their teeth are developing and once they have grown in.

Some states and municipalities have in recent months completely stopped water fluoridation, as officials have pointed to emerging data such as a 2024 report from the National Institutes of Health that concluded with moderate confidence that higher levels of fluoride exposure were linked to decreases in children’s IQ scores.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said that fluoride from toothpaste is sufficient to keep teeth strong.

The Environmental Protection Agency said in January that it would assess the safety of adding fluoride to water.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 14:00

Iran Used Chinese Spy Satellite To Target US Bases During War, Outraged Beijing Denies

Iran quietly secured a Chinese spy satellite in late 2024 and used it to track US military bases across the Middle East during the current war, the Financial Times has newly - an allegation Beijing has flatly and angrily denied.

The TEE-01B satellite, built and launched by Chinese firm Earth Eye Co, was allegedly taken over by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) Aerospace Force after launch from China, according to the report, which cites leaked Iranian military documents. Of course, the usual caveats must apply when it comes to major Western MSM reporting on an emerging 'axis of evil' doing all things anti-America: Russia, China, Iran (and certainly South Korea could soon be thrown in the mix given its pro-Moscow role in the Ukraine war). 

"Recently, some forces have been keen on fabricating rumors and maliciously associating them to China," according to the official statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. In the meantime, Earth Eye Co has not commented.

Further, the Chinese embassy in Washington told the Financial Times: "We firmly oppose relevant parties spreading speculative and insinuative disinformation against China." But we should note that this wasn't exactly a full-on denial of the charge, and the embassy would likely not have a full picture of what the highest echelons of Chinese intelligence is up to at any given moment in Beijing.

Per the FT report, Iranian commanders tasked the satellite with monitoring key US military sites, using time-stamped coordinate lists, satellite imagery, and orbital analysis. The Financial Times said the images were captured in March, before and after drone and missile strikes on those locations. 

As part of the arrangement, the IRGC gained access to commercial ground stations run by Emposat, a Beijing-based satellite control and data provider with a network spanning Asia, Latin America, and beyond.

One surprising development within the first month of Trump's Operation Epic Fury was that Iran's ballistic missiles were able to reach very precise locations all the way over in Jordan, where US bases were pummeled, amid an alarming trend where billions of dollars in regional American air defenses were quickly taken out. Of course, sensitive Israeli military and energy sites were also hit, especially in Haifa and Tel Aviv. Reuters has also picked up on the FT report Wednesday, writing:

According to the report, the satellite also monitored Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and locations close to the US Fifth Fleet naval base in Manama, Bahrain, and Erbil airport, Iraq, around the time of IRGC-claimed attacks on facilities in those areas.

US outposts in northern Iraqi Kurdistan have also been repeatedly hit by Iranian drones, or at times drones and projectiles possibly sent by local Tehran-aligned paramilitary forces.

As for more specifics cited in the original FT report, the satellite was described has having captured images of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 13, 14, and 15.

There's some credibility to this, given that on March 14, Trump confirmed that very expensive US surveillance aircraft at the base had been hit. "Four of the five had ⁠virtually no damage, and ​are already back in service. One ​had slightly more damage, but will be in the air shortly," ​Trump had written at the time ​on Truth Social.

Still, Trump is trying to 'play nice' with Beijing - even amid such public and damning allegations - ahead of his planned mid-May visit, saying in a Wednesday Truth Social post he asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping not to supply weapons to Iran, and Xi replied he was not doing so. "I had heard that China’s giving weapons to, I mean - you’re seeing it all over the place - to Iran." This was in a newly published Fox Business interview.

FT produced the following graphic as part of its report:

"And I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that essentially he’s not doing that." Major media outlets previously reported that US intelligence indicated China was preparing to ship advanced weaponry to Iran. Beijing's public rejection of the "baseless smear" - as the Foreign Minister called it - has indeed been swift and vehement.

Trump has also newly explained on Truth Social that China is "very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz" - this even though in many cases it is China bound tankers being blocked and turned back by the US naval armada. "This situation will never happen again," Trump added. He is set to meet with Xi in Beijing on May 14-15. On this he wrote that "President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are going working together smartly, and very well!" But then Trump says "But remember, we are very good at fighting, if we have to."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 13:25

Watch: Vance Pledges Probe Into Epstein 'Pizza' And 'Grape Soda' References

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Vice President JD Vance has publicly committed to investigating references in the Jeffrey Epstein files that he says evoked the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, citing emails mentioning “pizzas or grape sodas” in odd contexts.

His remarks come as Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche doubled down on the Department of Justice’s position that every relevant document has already been released, leaving critics to question whether the full truth about Epstein’s network will ever see daylight.

In remarks at a Turning Point USA event, Vance described reviewing the files and encountering an email that stood out.

JD Vance says he is in the process of opening an investigation into the "Pizzagate conspiracy theory" after he read strange words involving pizza and grape soda in the Epstein files.

Vance has now publicly pledged to follow up on this matter.

"I remember it sounding like the… pic.twitter.com/eu122DyAhw

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 14, 2026

“One person sent an e-mail to Jeffrey Epstein saying oh they were some really nice like pizzas or grape sodas or something like that,” he recalled. “And I remember it sounding like the Pizzagate conspiracy theory.”

His reaction was direct: “We should absolutely investigate.”

Vance added that he plans to follow up “to see whether we’ve investigated that person because we should. We absolutely should when you see evidence of sexual assault sexual misconduct regardless of who the powerful not fact.”

The comments have reignited scrutiny over language in the Epstein files that some have long argued resembles coded references first highlighted in 2016. Those earlier claims, known as Pizzagate, originated from WikiLeaks releases of John Podesta’s emails that contained repeated, seemingly out-of-context mentions of pizza alongside other odd terms.

Recent Epstein document dumps have revived the debate, with analysts pointing to hundreds of “pizza” references that do not appear to describe food.

New Jeffery Epstein documents have emails consistently use one very familiar word

The word Pizza

The emails they write when referring to pizza don’t make any sense if they were talking about the food….

Pizzagate was 100% real. Where are the arrests pic.twitter.com/KqkmsHk4c6

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) February 6, 2026

Mike Benz, in analysis of the newer files, noted: “In these new files, you’ll see a lot of people talking about PIZZA in a way that (seems like a code), it’s kind of impossible.”

Mike Benz:

In these new files, you’ll see a lot of people talking about PIZZA in a way that (seems like a code), it’s kind of impossible.

Drop a ? if you’ve been vindicated

Cliphttps://t.co/M6YlH9oRMY
Full Interviewhttps://t.co/03XLFBWHQm pic.twitter.com/tSXCvFBOa5

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) February 5, 2026

A separate development underscores the tension. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche appeared on Fox News and doubled down on declaring the Epstein files exhausted.

“We have released everything. We reviewed six million pieces of paper!” Blanche stated, adding “We are not sitting on a single piece of paper to be released.”

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche tells Americans he will cover up the child trafficking network of Jeffrey Epstein by not releasing the rest of the Epstein files.

He says people should trust him when he says there is not a single document that the government has that should… pic.twitter.com/Hi52DfzKxM

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 14, 2026

He insisted that if anything new surfaces it would be made public, but emphasized the DOJ’s review covered millions of pages unrelated to Epstein and that Congress could access unredacted materials if lawmakers chose to examine them.

ernity.news/wp-includes/js/wp-embed.min.js

The Pizzagate theory first gained traction in late 2016 after WikiLeaks published thousands of emails from Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta. Researchers flagged phrases like “pizza” and “hot dogs” appearing in contexts that seemed unrelated to meals—patterns that echoed an FBI intelligence bulletin on pedophile code words, where “pizza” was listed as slang for girl and “hot dog” for boy. Comet Ping Pong, a Washington, D.C. pizzeria, became the focal point after its owner’s Instagram posts and the restaurant’s alleged basement (which does not exist) fueled speculation of a child-sex ring operating out of the basement.

While mainstream outlets quickly labeled the theory a hoax, the Epstein files have now surfaced hundreds of similar “pizza” mentions. Multiple reports note exchanges involving Epstein’s urologist, Dr. Harry Fisch, that pair “pizza and grape soda” with references to erectile-dysfunction medication in ways that read as cryptic to outsiders. One 2018 message reads: “lets go for pizza and grape soda again. No one else can understand. Go kno.” Another simply states “Pizza and grape soda[.] Nough said.”

Debunkers argue these are innocent food references or jokes, yet many counter that the volume and context—especially when layered atop Epstein’s documented trafficking network—demand investigation rather than dismissal.

This latest flare-up fits a pattern of incremental disclosures followed by official assurances that the matter is closed. Vance’s willingness to revisit the “Pizzagate” framing, however tentatively, marks a rare high-level acknowledgment that some of the file language warrants a second look.

The Epstein saga has repeatedly exposed fractures between what officials claim has been fully disclosed and what the public believes remains concealed. Whether Vance’s pledged follow-up produces meaningful accountability—or joins the growing list of unfulfilled promises—will test whether transparency on elite networks is still possible. For now, the strange language in the files keeps the questions alive, and the public’s demand for answers shows no sign of fading.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

* * * Click. Plant. Don't trust your brother.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:50

Foggy, Foggy War

By Michael Every of Rabobank

With US stocks up, the Nasdaq with its longest winning streak since 2021, and screen oil down for a second day in a row, markets continue to price the starkly binary physical outcomes smack in front of us on the side that’s full of stardust.

The IMF just warned of a potential world recession ahead if Hormuz stays shut. Its latest three global growth scenarios are ‘weaker’, ‘worse’ and ‘severe’ - “because markets”, and politics, the Fund chose the most benign as its base case, even as “downside risks are clearly very elevated.” That’s as Spain, for example, just released 4 of their 90 days of strategic oil reserves, with another 8 to follow. While that leaves 78, even if Hormuz reopened tomorrow, it would take at least 60 and possibly as many as 150 days before normal oil flows could be restored, according to IEA. Imagine driving home in a convoy through a blazing desert in an air-conditioned car knowing you all have 50 miles of fuel in the tank, and the next station is 30 miles away… and then hearing on the radio that it could be shut, and the following one is at least 60 miles away. That’s where much of the world economy stands now – and markets are opting to pump up the radio and aircon and say, ‘The next station will be open and I want a slushy.’

Most governments are doing the kind of pumping oil wells aren’t: 

• Brussels is pitching a “state subsidy bonanza” to combat the energy shock which “goes much further than the current state aid rules.”

• Canada’s PM Carney, who ran two central banks, has suspended federal taxes on gasoline and diesel.

• Australian Treasurer Chalmers has introduced a 20-year retrospective capital gains tax on mining, energy and infrastructure.

• Malaysia is to increase its biofuel mandate.

Provided the war ends soon, those kinds of policies could cushion the economy: but across all schools of economic thought, textbooks are clear about what demand-side boosts into structural supply-side shocks do – leave you stuffed.

So, to the war. CENTCOM says no ships passed the Iran blockade in the first 24 hours. Moreover, the US Treasury says is not renewing its temporary easing of Iran oil sanctions and has sent notices to China and Hong Kong asking for help in enforcement. The US is clearly escalating hard vs Iran despite messages pinging yesterday that a sanctioned Chinese vessel, Starry Rich, had transited Hormuz, ignoring IF an interception was to be made, it would be in the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Sea; then clarified the vessel was carrying methanol from the UAE, not fuel from Iran, so wasn’t in scope; then the ship turned round anyway. Some press today claims the Saudis, who’ve been pushing the US to finish the job vs. Iran, are now pressuring it to ease the blockade in fear of a Red Sea counter-blockade that hasn’t taken place yet: more fog?

Yes, there will be more US-Iran talks in Pakistan, possibly tomorrow, which is the lodestar market bulls are guided by. As the Telegraph notes, this seems to be the one place that Iran’s battered leadership can physically meet without being killed: but what will they say that’s different from the last rejection of US demands on uranium, nuclear weapons, missiles, proxies, and Hormuz? Vice President Vance has reiterated Trump wants a “grand bargain” with Iran, not “a small deal,” and one that sees it abandon its nuclear ambitions. Trump has added that he wasn’t happy with the proposed 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment offered in Pakistan and wants a permanent end to the matter. Israel is also stating that the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium is a “threshold condition” for it ending its Iran campaign – though the head of Mossad chief has additionally declared, “Our mission isn’t over until regime falls.”

The question is perhaps if any grand bargain is only US-Iran, or will involve others, as top Russian and Chinese envoys meet in Beijing to discuss Iran, Ukraine, and Taiwan. Yet showing how complex this gets as our global crises conflate, Ukraine, now providing anti-drone tech to the GCC, which aids Israel, has asked Jerusalem to detain a Russian ship carrying stolen grain that just docked in Haifa, which will infuriate Moscow. The US is elsewhere suggesting Cuba is complicit in helping Russia fight Ukraine, both countries being flashpoints between DC and Moscow. Isolated, Europe is drawing up plans for keeping Hormuz open once the war is over, which, beyond any aid with minesweeping, logically won’t be needed: if the war is over, energy will flow. The EU proposal is notably modelled on its Red Sea Aspides force, which failed to reopen it to normal trade flows.

On a positive note, if assuming ‘escalate to deescalate’, Israeli and Lebanese envoys just held an historic summit in the US to discuss a peace deal. As the Israelis put it, “Lebanon wants to be liberated from (Iran-backed) Hezbollah… we discovered today that we’re on the same side of the equation.” By contrast, France, with its Sykes-Picot-logical focus on Lebanon, insists Hezbollah has to be included in these talks aimed at removing it, so has been deliberately excluded from them.

On exclusion, after attacking the Pope, Trump has now done the same to Italian PM Meloni for “lacking courage”: the EU will need that and more fiscal spending again given the Wall Street Journal report it’s accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case Trump pulls out – or waters his commitment down: “Article 5, Shmarticle 5.” Militarily, 5% of GDP would need to be spent on defense a lot sooner than the 2035 planned if so, and the Journal notes Europe would need to reinstitute a draft in order to get the necessary personnel. Yet in terms of providing muscle for any Rules-Based Order 2.0 without the US, Europe’s primary military power, France, just had to scale back its participation in key Balikatan naval exercises in the Philippines to a mere 15 participants.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times warns of a ‘China shock 2.0’, this time with a flood of high-tech goods “that will change the world” - or at least deindustrialize other parts of it. Bloomberg matches that with a report underlining that India’s plans to develop its own manufacturing base are hamstrung by China’s controls over the critical tech supply chain within that sector. The Nikkei Asia argues China is snapping up US chip tools via Southeast Asia sources (in the same way that many Chinese exports to the US are being transshipped via third parties), which from a neo-mercantilist perspective again makes the case for a global economy fragmented into geopolitical trade blocs.

That reality is one of the reasons I’ve argued lies behind this Iran war, both in terms of control of oil and the related IMEC trade corridor; and it’s why escalation will continue until the economic pain is so great that one side submits.

Yet will the unfolding slow-motion catastrophe in the background get key global players to cooperate before it’s too late? Only time will tell; and it’s a binary outcome; and while your car journey as you ponder this may be comfortable for now, the fuel tank is still the fuel tank, and the blazing desert is still the blazing desert. And as I type that, I just heard the following play on my radio:

“Now I understand; What you tried to say to me; And how you suffered for your sanity; And how you tried to set them free; They would not listen, they did not know how; Perhaps they'll listen now.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:15

Eos Energy Soars As Investors Focus On Zinc Batteries And AI-Driven Demand

Eos Energy Enterprises’ stock jumped over 60% in the last few days as investor enthusiasm grew around its scaling production and role in powering AI-driven infrastructure demand, according to the International Business Times.

The company designs, develops, manufactures, and markets energy storage solutions for utility-scale, microgrid, and commercial and industrial applications in the United States. The stock surge builds on earlier momentum after the company reported strong preliminary Q1 2026 revenue of $56–$57 million. Growth was fueled by higher shipments, improved output, and better manufacturing efficiency at its Pennsylvania facility, signaling progress in ramping up its second production line.

This positive update helped ease concerns from earlier setbacks, including missed 2025 revenue guidance and ongoing class-action lawsuits tied to production projections. While legal risks remain, recent operational gains have renewed investor confidence.

IBT writes that Eos is positioning itself to meet rising electricity demand from AI and data centers, highlighted by a new partnership aimed at rapidly deploying large-scale power solutions. Its zinc-based batteries—seen as safer, cheaper, and more domestically sourced than lithium alternatives—are gaining attention as utilities and tech firms seek reliable energy storage.

Looking ahead, the company expects 2026 revenue between $300 million and $400 million, with improving margins as production scales. A $701 million backlog supports future growth, though profitability, cash needs, and execution risks remain concerns.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic and broader market optimism and policy support for U.S.-based energy solutions have also contributed to the stock’s recent strength.

Overall, Eos appears to be at a turning point. Continued manufacturing progress and successful contract wins could solidify its position in the energy storage sector—but uncertainty and risk remain part of the story.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:00

BofA Sees Customer Gas Spending Jump 16%, But Discretionary Spending Holds Up

The national average for 87-octane gasoline has remained above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for two straight weeks after the largest monthly jump in AAA data going back two decades. The fuel shock has Wall Street analysts focused on whether surging pump prices will begin crowding out discretionary spending.

Bank of America CFO Alastair Borthwick told analysts on a conference call earlier today that the fuel shock at the pump has not undermined overall consumer strength so far, though that could change if the Hormuz chokepoint is not resolved in the near term, according to Bloomberg. 

The BofA presentation Alastair cited showed that, for the first quarter, consumer spending at the pump was up 3%. For March, gas spending soared 16%. However, no meaningful spending pullbacks were visible elsewhere: Entertainment, travel, and retail spending all remained healthy, with entertainment spending rising 12% in the quarter.

BofA has joined a number of other firms, including Chime Financial, in disclosing gas-cost impacts on their customers. Chime's CFO warned earlier this month that clients spent 25% more on fuel in March compared with the prior month.

Ally Financial, Capital One Financial, and American Express are set to report this week and will likely provide more color on fuel-shock impacts on their customers.

AAA data showed that the national average for 87-octane gasoline has hovered above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for the last two weeks.

On the economy, Goldman analyst Jessica Rindels told clients on Sunday how the U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its seventh week, is set to produce a mild stagflation shock, though not on the scale of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In our latest U.S.-Iran conflict report (read here), President Trump stated the war is "very close to over," with another round of peace talks scheduled for this week. A Wall Street report cited U.S. officials overnight as saying that more than 20 vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 11:45

OpenAI's Stratospheric Valuation Draws Investor Scrutiny As It Scrambles To Capture Enterprise Market

OpenAI, fresh off the largest private fundraising round in history, is facing mounting questions from some of its own backers over its $852 billion valuation and a whiplash-inducing pivot in strategy that prioritizes the higher-margin enterprise market at the expense of its consumer crown jewel - all because Anthropic is starting to drink their milkshake with enterprise contracts. 

The company raised $122 billion last month from Silicon Valley and global capital - including SoftBank, Amazon, Nvidia, Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital and Thrive Capital. Yet even as Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar hailed the oversubscribed deal as proof of “strong conviction” in the company’s direction, early investors are voicing skepticism. One told the Financial Times the pivot feels unfocused: “You have ChatGPT, a 1 billion-user business growing 50-100% a year - what are you doing talking about enterprise and code?”

Friar disagrees. "The suggestion that investors are not supportive of our strategy defies the facts," she said. "Our . . . raise, the largest in history, was oversubscribed, completed in record time and backed by a broad set of global investors, reflecting strong conviction in both our direction, current business momentum and long-term value."

The repositioning has indeed been swift and, to critics, symptomatic of the kind of strategic whiplash that often precedes trouble in hype-driven sectors. In December Chief Executive Sam Altman issued a "code red" urging staff to refocus on core business. High-profile consumer experiments have been quietly euthanized: the video-generation service Sora was shuttered, killing a planned $1 billion investment from Disney; an “adult” chatbot was mothballed; parts of the ambitious Stargate data-center project were ditched; and a $100 billion Nvidia deal was substantially scaled back. Even a recent “low hundreds of millions” acquisition of the tech talk show TBPN drew internal eye-rolling from investors who called it a distraction.

"I don’t get it frankly, it doesn’t make any sense to me," one investor told FT. "It’s a distraction and it irks me."

The new gospel is enterprise. OpenAI is reallocating computing resources toward its Codex coding tool, which insiders say could eventually eclipse ChatGPT in priority as the company chases nontechnical business users. Headcount is set to nearly double to 8,000 by year-end. Roughly half of revenue is expected to come from corporate customers, up from about 40% today. A new permanent office in London is in the works to anchor the largest research hub outside the U.S. The message from the C-suite: the market for corporate AI tools is “ours to win.”

However, fresh data from Morgan Stanley’s 1Q26 CIO Survey (fielded February 3–March 10 among 100 US and European CIOs - available to pro subs here) offers some early empirical support for the enterprise pivot - while also highlighting just how steep the climb is. Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning has cemented its position as the clear #1 CIO priority (17.7% of respondents named it a top-three area, up from 16.3% in 4Q25), with 39% now calling it their single highest priority. Yet when CIOs were asked which vendors are poised to capture the largest incremental share of GenAI spending, Microsoft dominated both the one-year and three-year outlooks by a wide margin. OpenAI still ranked solidly inside the top tier - behind Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Salesforce and ServiceNow - and was also cited as a preferred vendor for building custom AI applications today and three years out.

The survey underscores the broader reality: overall 2026 IT budgets are growing only modestly at +3.7%, with Software the sole category expected to accelerate (+4.1%). Hyperscalers (led overwhelmingly by Microsoft via Azure OpenAI Service, Copilot, and its massive existing enterprise footprint) remain the dominant wallet-share winners in AI and cloud. AI labs and application vendors, including OpenAI, are making incremental gains on top of that foundation.

Anthropic's Ascent

Rival Anthropic is making that claim harder to swallow. Founded by ex-OpenAI talent and led by Dario Amodei, the Claude maker has seen annualized revenue surge to $30 billion by the end of March from $9 billion at the close of 2025, fueled by demand for its coding and cybersecurity offerings. Secondary markets are now pricing Anthropic ahead of OpenAI for the first time. The startup has fielded multiple offers that could value it at $800 billion or higher - more than double its February tender valuation - though it has so far resisted. One investor who backs both companies noted that underwriting OpenAI’s latest round required assuming an IPO valuation north of $1.2 trillion.

Meanwhile, Anthropic has shrugged off a major national-security black eye that appears to have served as great marketing, after the Pentagon formally designated the company a “supply chain risk” to U.S. national security - the first time such a label, historically reserved for foreign adversaries like Huawei or Kaspersky, has ever been applied to a major American AI firm. The unprecedented move followed a bitter contract standoff in which Anthropic refused to strip safety guardrails from Claude that blocked its use for mass domestic surveillance or lethal autonomous weapons. Anthropic sued immediately, calling the designation retaliatory; courts have issued temporary blocks in some venues while litigation continues. Yet, this government smackdown has had no effect on private-market enthusiasm.

The two firms remain locked in a brutal arms race, each hemorrhaging billions annually on compute. OpenAI boasts a formidable infrastructure edge - 8 gigawatts secured now, targeting 30 gigawatts by 2030 -and claims it can simply serve a slightly inferior model if needed. Anthropic, by contrast, has cited outages and power constraints while promising restraint on further expansion. OpenAI’s new chief revenue officer, Denise Dresser, has accused Anthropic of overstating revenue by roughly $8 billion via cloud-partner gross-ups, though both sides insist they follow standard accounting.

Of course, there's an underlying catch: the lofty valuations rest on the assumption that enterprises will eventually pay up for these tools in volume. Yet a telling data point from the political arena suggests institutional buyers remain skittish. Republican campaigns are leaning into AI for messaging and voter targeting ahead of the 2026 midterms. The Democratic National Committee, however, has explicitly banned staff from using either ChatGPT or Claude, citing data-privacy and security risks. 

NEW: GOP campaigns are betting big on AI in the midterms

Dems -- not so much

More w/@hollyotterbein https://t.co/xUvX7HQSNo

— Alex Isenstadt (@axiosalex) April 14, 2026

OpenAI executives insist the repositioning towards enterprise is simply the necessary maturation of a company that has already reinvented itself multiple times. The massive war chest, they argue, provides “max flexibility” and “max optionality.” But with both startups still deeply unprofitable, compute burn rates that would make traditional tech CFOs blanch, and secondary-market momentum tilting toward the more focused rival, the narrative is shifting. What began as a consumer phenomenon is now a high-stakes bet that enterprise dollars will arrive fast enough—and in sufficient volume—to justify valuations that, to skeptics, increasingly look detached from today’s economics.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 11:20

Bank of America Jumps On Record Equity Trading Revenue, Net Interest Income Forecast Increase, Offset By FICC Miss

Following stellar equity trading results from Goldman and JPMorgan, this morning Bank of America reported that its traders also pulled in the business’s highest quarterly revenue in more than a decade, riding a wave of volatility that pushed the firm’s stock-trading desk to an all-time record. Bank of America said Q1 profit rose 17% from a year earlier, while net income came in at $8.58 billion. That amounted to $1.11 a share, above analyst estimates of $1.01. Revenue was 7% higher at $30.27 billion, driven by solid net interest income, sales and trading and investment banking fees. 

Revenue from equity trading climbed 30% to $2.8 billion in the first quarter, beating expectations, while fixed-income trading, which fell short of a consensus of analyst estimates, rose less than 1% to $3.5 billion, similar to Goldman's FICC miss. Bank have benetted from a volatile quarter, when the Iran war sent oil prices surging and concerns about artificial intelligence and private credit whipsawed stocks. Trading desks were already on a roll since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election, as his policy moves often spurred reactions across stocks, commodities and rates. The total trading haul helped push revenue to $30.3BN, above the $29.92BN consensus estimate, while adjusted EPS rose 25% to $1.11 a share, also beating the $1.01 analyst estimate. Overall, Bank of America’s net income was up 17.3% to $8.16 billion.

Here are the Q1 highlights

• EPS $1.11, beating ests of $1.01
• Revenue net of interest expense $30.27 billion, beating estimates of $28.63 billion
  • Trading revenue excluding DVA $6.32 billion, estimate $6.34 billion
    • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.83 billion, beating estimate $2.51 billion
    • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $3.50 billion, missing estimate $3.78 billion
• Net interest income FTE $15.91 billion
• Wealth & investment management total revenue $6.71 billion, beating estimate $6.59 billion

Last month, BofA Co-President Dean Athanasia said that he was feeling good about net interest income, expecting growth of at least 7%. Well, the final number was even stronger, and the bank reported NII of $15.7 billion, up 9% from the first quarter of 2025 (more below). Just as importantly, BofA raised its full-year NII forecast, now expecting it to grow 6%–8%, up from previous estimates of 5%–7%, driven by strong first-quarter performance, and suggesting the Fed's rate cuts won't negatively impact the bank.

Balance sheet metrics were also solid

• Return on average equity 12%, estimate 10.8%
• Return on average assets 0.99%, estimate 0.92%
• Return on average tangible common equity 16%, estimate 14.5%
• Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in, advanced approach 12.5%, estimate 12.7%
• Standardized CET1 ratio 11.2%, estimate 11.4%

Turning to asset quality, aside from some concerns about Private Credit (see below), the results were solid with BofA's net charge-offs down 3% to $1.41 billion, below the estimate of $1.42 billion while the provision for credit losses also dropped to $1.34 billion, and also below estimates of $1.5 billion, and down $143MM YoY. As BBG notes, the number "came in way below estimates, offsetting larger-than-expected numbers for some of its peers. Overall, the combined tally is tracking lower than feared, helping soothe concerns about private-credit contagion into financials.” BofA also announced a net reserve release of $72MM in 1Q26 vs. net reserve build of $28MM in 1Q25 and $21MM in 4Q25. Meanwhile, the allowance for loan and lease losses of $13.1B represented 1.09% of total loans and leases. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) of $5.8B decreased $0.3B from 1Q25, and were flat to 4Q25, as higher consumer NPLs, driven by residential mortgage relief extended for borrowers impacted by 2025 California wildfires, were mostly offset by lower commercial NPLs. 

In its earnings presentation, BofA highlighted solid growth across most segments...

... and noted that every segment contributed to YoY growth.

Looking at the bank's high margin trading businesses, results here were stellar in equities, and subpar in credit. Total revenue ex net DVA of $7.1B increased 8% from 1Q25, driven by higher sales and trading revenue, partially offset by the absence of gains related to leveraged finance positions in 1Q25. Sales and trading revenue of $6.4B increased 13% from 1Q25; excluding net DVA, up 12%

• Revenue net of interest expense $30.27 billion, beating estimates of $28.63 billion
  • Trading revenue excluding DVA $6.32 billion, estimate $6.34 billion
    • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA rose 20% to $2.83 billion, beating estimate $2.51 billion
    • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA rose 2% to  $3.50 billion, missing estimate $3.78 billion

As an aside, noninterest expense of $4.4B increased 15% vs. 1Q25, driven by higher revenue-related expenses and investments in the business, including people and technology. Lastly, average Q1 VaR tumbled to just $47MM in 1Q26 as even trading desks retrenched. 

Momentum in markets was coupled with a comeback in dealmaking: this boosted investment-banking revenue to $1.89 billion, above the  average estimate of $1.79 billion. Fees for advising on mergers and acquisitions rose to $553 million. The bank’s equity-capital markets business generated $353 million in revenue, while debt-underwriting revenue totaled $986 million, with both beating estimates. Analysts had expected revenue of $312 million and $963 million, respectively. 

The second-largest US bank said that net interest income, a key source of revenue for the company, rose 9% to $15.7 billion. Analysts had expected a 6.5% increase for NII, the revenue collected from loan payments minus what depositors are paid. Net Interest Yield dropped from 2.08% to 2.07% as a result of declining interest rates. 

The company’s loan balances rose 8.5% to $1.21 trillion at the end of the first quarter, above analysts’ estimates of $1.19 trillion. Lending has been a key focus for investors, with interest rates holding steady.

Bank of America’s noninterest expenses were up 4.3% to $18.5 billion from a year earlier. Charges and costs are another focal point for investors, with persistent inflation putting pressure on spending. Analysts had expected a 4% increase to $18.47 billion.

Earlier in the week, JPMorgan and Citigroup reported earnings that were boosted by record trading results. Wall Street banks have also been tallying and detailing their exposure to the private-credit industry, with many investors on edge over valuations and the growing impact of artificial intelligence.

Commenting on the state of the US consumer, CEO Brian Moynihan said consumer spending points to a “resilient American economy", while also warning of risks. Earlier, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said "the U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy." Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf: “While markets have been volatile, we still see continued resiliency in the underlying economy and the financial health of the consumers and businesses we serve remains strong, though the impact of higher oil prices will likely take some time to materialize."

Turning to the number one topic in banking these days, Bank of America disclosed $20 billion of private credit exposure, noting that typical advance rates on private credit and broadly syndicated loans are between 70% to 75%. The company said the underlying collateral of those loans are showing “strong” earnings and are often senior in the credit stack. BofA also noted that it has less than $2 billion in lending to BDC companies which have been the epicenter of the private credit meltdown. 

Bank of America’s results also offered a look at how US consumers fared during the first three months of the year with investors eager to hear details on the national economy from bank executives whose firms cater to America's consumers and businesses. The bank noted that total credit and debit-card spending was up 6% in the first quarter, while consumers are facing pressure from higher gas prices: spending on gas was up 16% in March from a year earlier.

“We remain watchful of evolving risks,” CEO Brian Moynihan said in a statement. “However, we saw healthy client activity, including solid consumer spending and stable asset quality, indicating a resilient American economy.” Earlier this week, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo also said consumer spending was holding up despite surging gas prices.

Shares of Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, rose about 4% to $55 in early trading Wednesday, a two month high. They’ve gained 45% in the 12 months through Tuesday, outpacing the 9.8% increase in the S&P 500 Financials Index.

The full BofA Q1 presentation is below (pdf link)

The Presentation Materials_1Q26 by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 10:24

US Prosecutors Make Surprise Visit To Fed HQ Renovation Project

Federal prosecutors on Tuesday made a surprise visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters building that's undergoing a $2.5 billion renovation, as they continue to investigate whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell lied to Congress about the cost and scope of the project. Construction workers told the prosecutors they couldn't come on the site without prior authorization, the Wall Street Journal reported. Instead, they were referred to the Fed's lawyers to coordinate a return visit.  

A worker at a construction gate outside the Federal Reserve's Eccles Building in July 2025 (Jonathan Ernst, Reuters via USA Today)

The provocative move is the latest chapter in a months-long legal drama over the enormously expensive renovation of two Fed office buildings built in the 1930s, and whether Powell made false statements about the project in a congressional hearing last June. Specifically, Powell disputed media reports and accusations from administration officials and congressional Republicans that the project had extravagant design features, such as a VIP dining room, premium marble, water features and a rooftop terrace garden. 

Last year, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought reported that the $2.5 billion cost was $700 million over budget. President Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Powell for not pushing interest even lower than they are, was quick to condemn the Fed director for the steep price of the project. “When you spend $2.5 billion on, really, a renovation, I think it’s really disgraceful,” he said last year. More recently, he said the lead contractor "is probably one of the richest men in the country right now."

The ongoing drama had a moment of comic relief in July, when Trump joined Powell in touring the construction site with reporters tagging along: 

JUST IN: President Trump starts arguing with a clearly uncomfortable Jerome Powell as the two wear their hard hats.

Trump: So we're taking a look and it looks like it's about 3.1 billion.

Powell: I'm not aware of that.

Trump: Yeah, it just came out.

Powell: Yeah, I haven't… pic.twitter.com/CKAAvd0lvp

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 24, 2025

Last month, US District Judge James Boasberg threw out two subpoenas that federal prosecutors had issued to the Fed. “There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will,” wrote Boasberg, an Obama appointee. Tuesday's surprise visit to the construction zone signals the DOJ's dedication to chasing the case. 

An excavator claws the earth beneath the Fed's 1951 Constitution Ave building in July 2025 (Reuters via USA Today)

“Any construction project that has cost overruns of almost 80 percent over the original construction budget deserves some serious review,” US Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro told the Journal on Tuesday. “And these people are in charge of monetary policy in the United States?” Pirro, a long-time Trump ally, gave a green light to the investigation in November. 

Powell’s term as chair will expire on May 15, though his underlying seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors doesn’t end until 2028. In January, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace him, but his Senate confirmation is being held up by Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who said he won't vote to advance Warsh's nomination until the DOJ investigation of Powell and the Fed is complete. Powell has said he'll stay on as chair until his successor is confirmed. Fed chairs usually give up their Board of Governors seat after leaving the top job, but Powell has said he will make a decision on that "based on what I think is best for our institution and the people we serve.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 10:05

Shoe Brand Allbirds Pivots To AI, Changes Name To NewBird AI, Stock Rips More Than 360%

Just when you thought you’d seen the last of the AI pivot idiocy…

Allbirds (yes, the wool sneaker people) is mooning—up as much as 360%—after announcing it’s ditching shoes and pivoting to, of course, AI. This comes just weeks after agreeing to sell off its brand and footwear business for $39 million, according to Sherwood News.

The plan? Rebrand as “NewBird AI,” raise $50 million, and reinvent itself as a GPU-as-a-Service / AI cloud company. Translation: buy a bunch of high-powered GPUs and rent them out to companies desperate for AI compute. The company's press release out Wednesday morning said: "Following its prior announcement that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell the Allbirds brand and footwear assets to American Exchange Group, which intends to continue to build on Allbirds’ legacy and deliver compelling products to Allbirds’ customers, Allbirds, Inc. today announced the execution of a definitive agreement with an institutional investor for a $50 million convertible financing facility."

It continues: "The Facility, which is expected to close during the second quarter of 2026, will enable the Company to pivot its business to AI compute infrastructure, with a long-term vision to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider. In connection with this pivot, the Company anticipates changing its name to “NewBird AI.”"

"NewBird AI expects to use initial capital from the Facility to acquire high-performance GPU assets, which will be deployed to serve customers requiring dedicated access to AI compute capacity. NewBird AI’s long-term vision is to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider. Over time, the Company intends to grow its neocloud platform by expanding its compute and service offerings, deepening partnerships with operators and customers, and evaluating strategic M&A opportunities," the release continues.

It adds:

The rise of AI development and adoption has created unprecedented structural demand for specialized, high-performance compute that the market is struggling to meet. Global enterprise spending on AI services and data center investment are on the rise. At the same time, GPU procurement lead times are increasing for high-end hardware, North American data center vacancy rates have reached historic lows, and market-wide compute capacity coming online through mid-2026 is already fully committed. The result is a market where enterprises, AI developers, and research organizations are unable to secure the compute resources they need to build, train and run AI at scale.

NewBird AI is being built to help close that gap. The Company will initially seek to acquire high-performance, low-latency AI compute hardware and provide access under long-term lease arrangements, meeting customer demand that spot markets and hyperscalers are unable to reliably service.

In the process, we're guessing they’ll also scrub references to their environmental mission—because nothing says sustainability like a rack of energy-hungry GPUs.

The pitch is that insatiable AI demand will carry them back toward their former $4 billion valuation.

At this rate, we'll be back to Chamath SPACs and gamma squeezes just like the good ole' days of Covid in just weeks. Who knew that apparently, selling compute to tech execs is the new, more durable version of selling them “eco-friendly” sneakers?

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 09:45

Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?

Diana Choyleva wrote an excellent editorial for the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Iran War Is A Boon For The Petrodollar.”

She pushes back against claims that the Iran conflict is accelerating the death of the petrodollar.

Instead, RealInvestmentAdvice.com points out that she argues the opposite: between Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. is defending and bolstering dollar dominance in the oil trade.

The 75-year-old petrodollar system rests on oil being priced and traded in dollars, which keeps the dollar prominent in all global trade.

China has been undermining the petrodollar through yuan settlement systems and by deepening its ties with some Arab nations.

Rather than Iran being a “perfect storm” weakening the petrodollar, as some argue, Choyleva sees American military engagement in Iran as supportive of the dollar. 

Simply, control the flow of oil, and you control the currency it’s traded in.

Most Arab nations back the US campaign against Iran. Importantly, “the security commitment was tested; it held.”

This reinforced the security-for-oil-pricing bargain that underpins the petrodollar system.

The removal of Venezuelan President Maduro and influence over Venezuelan oil accomplishes similar goals.

If the US controls Western Hemisphere oil reserves, it would command more oil than OPEC combined, thus providing enormous leverage for keeping oil priced in dollars.

The author sees two scenarios for how the war ends.

First, an agreement that gives the U.S. influence over Iranian oil flows.

Second, US forces seize Kharg Island and police the Strait of Hormuz.

In her words, controlling “the choke point through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows.”

Either way, both events lead to more dollar-based oil trades, not less.

She concludes that "those who conclude that the petrodollar is already in its death throes are reading the map upside down. The storm is real. The dollar is fighting back."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 09:10

Yet Another Historic Church Torched In Canada

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Another historic church lies in ashes after a major fire tore through Saint-Romain, Quebec, last night. The building, whose construction began in 1893, is the latest casualty in a relentless campaign against Canada’s Christian institutions that has seen arsons more than double since 2021.

A historic church, originally built in 1893 and standing for over a century, was destroyed by flames Monday evening in Saint-Romain, between Beauce and Estrie in the province of Quebec. pic.twitter.com/uyq0K1cjx2

— Alexandra Lavoie (@ThevoiceAlexa) April 14, 2026

The post, which included video of the blaze, has ignited widespread outrage across X, with people quick to assume who the likely culprits are.

Another church set on fire last night, this time in Saint-Romain, Quebec.

Invaders are attacking our women, children and every fabric of our societies.

All while politicians give them preferential treatment and put laws in place to protect them from even simple criticism. pic.twitter.com/zaFxKZNz2p

— Tommy Robinson ?? (@TRobinsonNewEra) April 14, 2026

Another Church Fire tonight in Saint-Romain, Quebec ??

Construction of this church began in 1893.

According to CBC News' 2024 investigation (covering May 2021 to Dec 2023), at least 33 Canadian churches burned to the ground.

24 confirmed arsons, only 2 were accidental, rest… pic.twitter.com/sQOBXAIXUg

— Lozzy B ??? (@TruthFairy131) April 14, 2026

That CBC News investigation documented the surge in detail. A subsequent Macdonald-Laurier Institute report confirmed arson attacks on religious institutions more than doubled from pre-2021 baselines, with fewer than 4% of cases resulting in charges—leaving over 96% unsolved.

Western nations are watching the same erosion. In the UK, churches face more than 10 crimes every single day.

Prime Minister Kier Starmer’s selective outrage—furious over a mosque incident yet silent as churches literally burn to the ground has added to the outrage.

The same thing is happening all over Europe.

Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic rush to condemn “hate” when it suits their narrative, yet the destruction of Christian landmarks draws shrugs or excuses despite most cases remaining unsolved.

Mass immigration continues unchecked, with critics muzzled by speech laws while churches, the backbone of Western communities, are erased.

Responses on X captured the frustration. One user noted: “Churches are burning around the world And yet they keep telling us there’s nothing to see. Funny how the arsonists are never caught.” Another warned: “This is what muslims do as they conquer new areas. They destroy the religions sites of the conquered people. This has always been their way.”

Historic buildings that stood for over a century or more are torched while authorities prioritize everything except protecting the heritage that built their nations.

Canada—and the broader West—cannot afford more “coincidences.” Without border security, law enforcement that actually prosecutes, and leaders who value their own civilization over imported grievances, the fires will keep coming.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 08:50

Futures Unchanged Just Shy Of All Time High On Peace Hopes, Solid Earnings

US equity futures are flat following yesterday’s rally as market awaits news on the Iran war resolution and as we traverse earnings season. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures are little changed after the benchmark closed within a whisker of a record. Risk sentiment took a small knock in recent trade after Iran cautioned that it will not allow shipments to or from the Gulf if the US blockade remain.Nasdaq futures are fractionally in the green, and set for an 11th consecutive gain as the massive short squeeze/CTA forced buying continues: in premarket trading, Mag7 / Semis are mixed, Discretionary and Staples are both stronger, Fins / Indu are leading Cyclicals with weakness in Materials.  Bank of America and Morgan Stanley rose in premarket trading as their equity traders posted strong revenue beats. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded flat, while China’s mainland blue-chip index became the latest in Asia to recoup losses since the Iranian war began. Brent erased early losses to rise 1% toward $96 a barrel as the US pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Treasuries edged lower, with the two-year yield rising one basis point to 3.76% and the 10Y rising 2bps to 4.27%. The dollar is slightly stronger which would break a 7 session losing streak if gains hold while gold fell toward $4,800 an ounce. Other commodities are mixed with Ags, Base metals, and the Energy complex ex-natgas bid. Today’s macro data focus is on Beige Book, TIC data (keep an eye on buys/sells of Trsys), Housing prices, Empire Mfg, and Import/Export prices.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Microsoft +0.6%, Tesla +0.5%, Meta +0.1%, Apple -0.04%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.08%, Nvidia -0.1%)

• Quantum computing stocks rise, on track to extend gains, after Nvidia unveiled a suite of new open-source AI models aimed at accelerating progress within quantum computing.
• Solar stocks are rising after Reuters reported that China held initial talks with providers of equipment to make solar panels as it considers limiting exports of the most advanced technology to the US, citing five people familiar with the matter. Gainers include First Solar (FSLR) +4%.
• Broadcom (AVGO) rises 3% after the technology company expanded its partnership with Meta to deploy AI infrastructure.
• BRP Inc. (DOO) slumps 22% after the Canadian recreational manufacturer withdrew its financial outlook for the 2027 fiscal year, saying it faces a $363 million hit from recent changes by the Trump administration to its tariffs.
• Cloudflare (NET) gains 3% as Piper Sandler upgrades to overweight, calling it an “AI-winner to own.”
• Gitlab (GTLB) gains 6% after the company announced a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI.
• Robinhood (HOOD) rises 7% and Webull (BULL) gains 8% after the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors.
• Snap Inc. (SNAP) climbs 8% after saying it is laying off roughly 1,000 full-time employees, or 16% of its global workforce, part of an effort by Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel to reduce costs and achieve profitability.
• SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) slips 3% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company to sell, saying expectations are too high.
• TeraWulf (WULF) falls over 7% after the Bitcoin mining company’s preliminary first-quarter revenue came in below Wall Street’s expectations. The company also said it is offering $800 million of shares via Morgan Stanley and Cantor Fitzgerald.

In corporate news, Anthropic has received offers from investors for a new round of funding that could value the company at about $800 billion or higher. Meta anounced an expanded multibillion-dollar partnership with Broadcom to design and build custom chips for AI. Stellantis’s global shipments jumped 12% in the first quarter, led by a surge in demand in North America for its refreshed Jeep and Ram models.

In the latest Middle East developments, as US/Iran move towards a second official negotiation, another aircraft carrier (USS George HW Bush) is set to arrive with additional soldiers and war ships around Apr 21, with the ceasefire set to expire on Apr 22; this carrier group’s route appears to be avoiding the Suez Canal / Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The USS Abraham Lincoln has completed repairs in Crete though it is unknown if it will resume activities in the ME Conflict, which would be the third aircraft carrier. Bessent says ME Conflict is worth having some short-term economic pain for long-term gain. Iran’s state TV cited Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s joint military headquarters, who warned that if the US continues to impose a naval blockade in the region and creates insecurity for Iran’s ships, “this action by the US will constitute a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire.” If the blockade continues, Iran’s armed forces “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea.”

Meanwhile, bank earnings point to a generally healthy consumer and corporate sector, both able to withstand the supply chain shock emanating from the Middle East without experiencing stagflation / recession.

President Trump told the New York Post that talks could resume “over the next two days” and said in a Fox Business interview the war is “close to over.” Mediators moved closer to extending the ceasefire between the two parties, the Associated Press reported.

Investors have been piling back into stocks even with no clear end in sight to the war, which has choked off around a fifth of global crude supplies and risked a surge in inflation that could still prompt central banks to tighten policy. 

“Amid all the uncertainty, I consider it warranted to re-focus on the outlook beyond the war,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. “A key driver of markets is that the war-related dash for liquidity is over and partly reversing. That helps the more risky assets.”

Technology shares in particular have been snapped up after lagging the market for much of the year, with the Nasdaq 100 notching its longest stretch of daily wins since 2021. In just the past two sessions, a popular exchange-traded fund that tracks the software industry is up 6.4%. Oracle Corp. has soared 18% and Microsoft Corp. and Palantir Technologies Inc. have gained 6%. 

“The US tech sector, including the Magnificent Seven, is much cheaper today than six months ago,” said Lilian Chovin, head of asset allocation at Coutts & Co. “Concerns around the Middle East won’t disappear all of a sudden, but the ability of those companies to generate earnings in a difficult macro environment remains very attractive.”

With the earnings season now in full swing, investors will watch for signs of whether the conflict is denting the outlook for earnings and whether corporates and consumers are cutting back on spending amid the uncertainty. In Europe, ASML Holding NV shares fell 0.5% as a weaker-than-expected sales outlook for the second quarter tempered a raised full-year forecast for the maker of advanced chipmaking machines. Luxury firms Hermes International SCA and Kering SA slumped after disappointing sales updates.

It’s still early in the earnings season, but Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said he’s “impressed by the resiliency of Corporate America” so far. Management teams at the likes of Citigroup, Delta Airlines and JPMorgan have pointed to relatively stable trends in terms of customer spending and activity, he said. That’s helping the narrative of US strength over the rest of the world. In Europe, luxury giants Hermès and Kering both reported poor results as the war crimped sales.

Financials dominate the first week of earnings season, but remain bottom of the pile in sector returns for the year. Morgan Stanley is expected to post record equity-trading revenue, while BofA’s top-line gains and cost control in 1Q should usher in positive operating leverage, according to BI. 

Elsewhere, chip equipment maker ASML’s CEO expects chip demand to outpace supply “for the foreseeable future,” creating “a strong constraint” in various markets from AI to mobile and PC. These supply/demand dynamics are showing up in the global smartphone market, which suffered its first decline since 2023 in 1Q, according to market tracker IDC. The memory crunch and war in Iran are likely to elevate costs and constrain growth further in 2026.

“Earnings will be key for fundamental investors to step in and chase or fade,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc. With “stocks near year-to-date highs, it feels like easy gains are behind us and fundamentals should prevail again.”

In geopolitics, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the BBC that the Iran war is worth a “small bit of economic pain,” ahead of what is likely to be a tense meeting with his UK counterpart Rachel Reeves. Trump described the relationship with the UK as “sad,” adding that the trade deal between the countries “can always be changed.” Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged deeper bilateral coordination with Russia.

European indices mostly tilt lower with the broad Stoxx 600 down 0.1% with technology and health care shares leading gains, while consumer products and energy stocks are the biggest laggards. The CAC 40 lags with losses of 0.6% following disappointing earnings from Hermes and Kering, with the former posting its largest decline on record. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Aixtron gains as much as 15%, to the highest since June 2001, after pre-announcing its first-quarter results and lifting guidance for the full year
• ASML shares advance as much as 1.8% after the Dutch firm raised full-year sales guidance, a signal of strong demand from chipmakers
• Basic-Fit shares jump as much as 8.3%, to the highest intraday since Jan. 27, after KBC Securities upgraded the Dutch health club chain to buy from hold
• DFDS shares rise as much as 16%, their biggest gain in over a year, after the shipping and logistics company raised its Ebit guidance
• Intertek Group shares rise as much as 14% after analysts welcomed the group’s initiation of a strategic review to evaluate if Intertek Testing & Assurance and Intertek Energy & Infrastructure would be better positioned as separate businesses
• Saga shares jump as much as 12% to the highest in six years after the travel and insurance company reported full-year results, with Peel Hunt noting encouraging current trading and strong ocean cruise bookings
• Hermès shares fall as much as 14%, the most on record, after the luxury-goods firm reports first-quarter sales that missed analyst estimates, dragged down by a weak performance in Asia Pacific and France
• Kering shares fall 10% after the French luxury group’s key fashion & leather goods unit fell short of expectations, dragged down by worse-than-expected Gucci sales
• Imperial Brands drops as much as 3.2% after being downgraded by analysts at UBS on a lack of near-term catalysts and concerns around more intense competition
• Colruyt declines as much as 6%, the most in almost four months, as JPMorgan places the retail company on a negative catalyst watch into its full-year results in June and lowers its price target to a new Street low

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia gained after the US and Iran stepped up efforts to arrange a second round of peace talks, reviving hopes for an end to six weeks of hostilities in the Middle East that fueled an energy crisis. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, led by gains in TSMC and Samsung Electronics. A gauge of the region’s technology stocks jumped as much as 2.9% to an all-time high, tracking an overnight rally on Wall Street. South Korea’s Kospi outperformed major markets. Thailand was closed for a holiday.
Renewed optimism over Middle East stability has shifted investor focus back toward technology earnings and the outlook for further AI-driven capital expenditure. While geopolitics risks linger, fatigue is tempering reactions to incremental developments. Stocks advanced in Hong Kong, Japan and the Philippines. Shares also traded higher in India as trading resumed after a holiday. 

In rates, treasuries are marginally cheaper across the curve in early US trading, having erased small gains spurred by AP report that the US and Iran agreed in principle to extend a truce. US 2- to 10-year yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper with long-end little changed, flattening 5s30s spread by less than 1bp; 10-year near 4.26% slightly underperforms German and UK counterparts. US session has few scheduled events beyond Fed Beige Book release. Corporate new-issue calendar has begun to build, with a busy day expected after several borrowers stood down Tuesday. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has just veered into positive territory, up 0.1% after a run of seven consecutive losses.

In commodities, oil is higher following sharp drop from Monday’s high that helped drive gains for US stocks. WTI crude oil futures remain about 1.5% higher with the latest update from Iran sending prices to session highs. Spot gold and silver have ebbed lower throughout the session, showing respective losses of 1% and 1.3%. Bitcoin loses 0.3%.  

The US economic data calendar includes April Empire manufacturing and March import/export price index (8:30am), April NAHB housing market index (10am) and February TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate includes Governor Barr and Cleveland’s Hammack (8:30am) and Governor Bowman (1:45pm); Beige Book released 2pm.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.26%
• VIX little changed at 18.32
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1193.5
• euro little changed at $1.1786
• WTI crude +1.2% at $92.36/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Donald Trump played down the prospect of renewed fighting in the war with Iran, saying the war is "close to over" and extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary. Talks between the US and Iran might restart "over the next two days", according to Trump, after an initial round of peace talks ended in Pakistan on Sunday without a deal. BBG
• The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, as the Trump administration attempts to pressure Iran into a deal that could end the weeks long conflict there while considering the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if a fragile ceasefire deal does not hold. WaPo
• A fallback plan to ensure Europe can defend itself using NATO’s existing military structures if the U.S. departs is gaining traction after getting buy-in from Germany, a long-term opponent of a go-it-alone approach. The officials working on the plans, which some officials are referring to as “European NATO,” are seeking to get more Europeans into the alliance’s command-and-control roles and supplement U.S. military assets with their own. WSJ
• Xi Jinping met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Beijing. BBG
• The US-UK trade deal “can always be changed,” Trump told Sky News, describing the relationship between the two countries as “sad.” BBG
• ASML raised its sales forecast as the surge in AI spending continued to boost demand, as optimism about the tech returned to the spotlight. BBG
• President Donald Trump’s tariffs may be restored by July to the levels in place before the Supreme Court struck down many of his levies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. BBG
• Maine lawmakers have passed a bill that could make it the first U.S. state to put a moratorium on new data centers as ‌opposition to the electricity-hungry facilities grows across the country over their impact on household energy bills and the environment. The bill would freeze approvals for data centers requiring more than 20 megawatts of power until October 2027, while a state-appointed council analyzes ⁠their impact on the local grid, electricity bills, air and water. RTRS
• Anthropic received several offers for a new round of funding that would more than double its pre-money valuation to about $800 billion or higher, people familiar said. BBG
• US Treasury has begun quietly asking private credit firms to submit information detailing their business models and ties to the regulated financial system: Punchbowl.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said underlying economy remains strong and still thinks growth could exceed 3% to 3.5% this year.
• White House Economic Advisor Hassett said real income growth is very high and he is confident the economy will be strong this year.

Iran War

• Effort to extend US-Iran ceasefire has made progress, AP reports citing official; mediators aim to extend the ceasefire for at least another two weeks; both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.
• Discussions are underway regarding possible extension of temporary ceasefire between Iran and US, according to Arab diplomatic sources cited by Russia on Wednesday and being reported by Chinese press CCTV. However, US President Trump said it could end either way, but thinks a deal is preferable because then Iran can rebuild, also said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reported citing ABC reporter on X.
• The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reports citing US officials; in a bid to pressure Iran while mulling the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
• US President Trump said it's "very possible" a deal with Iran will be reached by the time the King visits the US later this month (27-29th April), Sky News reported.
• US President Trump said he views the war being very close to over, according to Fox News.
• US VP Vance said we are negotiating with Iran and ceasefire is holding, adds Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal. Feel good about where we are. Lot of mistrust between the US and Iran, can't be solved overnight.
• US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face meeting before the ceasefire expires next week, according to sources familiar cited by CNN.
• Pakistan leadership’s overseas tour until April 18th dims prospects of US-Iran talks in Islamabad before April 18th, Pakistani journalist Mallick reported.
• Iran is to use alternative ports to those in southern Iran to bypass the US blockade in the Strait, Mehr News reported.
• An Iranian VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier), which was on the US sanctions list, entered the waters of Iran past the US blockade, Fars reported.
• Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to an FT investigation.
• US Central Command said blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and that US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.
• US has intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade, according to WSJ.
• New satellite images show Iran digging for missile launchers trapped underground amid a ceasefire, according to CNN.
• More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, WSJ reported, citing US officials.
• US destroyer interdicted two oil tankers that attempted to leave Iran on Tuesday, according to an official cited by Reuters.
• US President Trump reiterates on Truth Social "NATO wasn’t there for us, and they won’t be there for us in the future!".
• Europe is accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case US President Trump pulls US out of the treaty, according to WSJ.
• US Pentagon is likely to trim its Iran wall funding request, according to WSJ citing Senator Coons who is the top democrat on the Senate appropriations defence committee.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took its cue from the rally on Wall St amid continued hopes regarding US-Iran talks, while President Trump suggested talks could occur during the next two days. ASX 200 eked mild gains, but with upside capped as strength in tech, gold miners and health care was offset by losses in energy and some defensives, while trade was also restricted by a lack of data and drivers. Nikkei 225 rallied above the 58,000 level, with the positive risk sentiment facilitated by the recent decline in oil prices and the much stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with the gains in Hong Kong led by tech strength, while oil majors lagged after the recent oil decline. Furthermore, the PBoC continued its meagre daily liquidity efforts through 7-day reverse repo operations, but had announced yesterday to conduct CNY 500bln of 183-day outright reverse repos for today.

Top Asian News

• China’s State Council says temporary measures, including suspending approvals or filings, may be used to address industries facing severe disorderly competition.
• Chinese President Xi said in meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that China is to enhance communications with Russia and the stability of ties with Russia is valuable.
• Russian President Putin's visit to China is being prepared and the timing of the visit will be announced by the Kremlin in due course, according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskov.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) point to a mixed picture, primarily driven by diverging earnings. The CAC 40 (-0.6%) is the big underperformer following losses in luxury names (Hermes -9%, Kering -9.1%), while the AEX (+0.1%) slightly outperforms as ASML (+0.1%) gains. As mentioned above, Q1 earnings reports by ASML, Kering and Hermes have been of focus this morning. Starting with Europe’s most valuable company, ASML reported sales that beat estimates while also raising its FY26 revenue guidance. The CEO highlighted that demand for chips is outpacing supply and that order intake continues to be very strong. Despite the strong report, shares initially fell slightly at the open, possibly on the softer Q2 sales guidance, but has reversed course since.

Top European News

• French Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 0.9%); HICP Y/Y 2.0% vs. prelim. 1.9%.
• French Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.6%).
• EU Industrial Production MoM (Feb) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.5%, Low. -0.5%, High. 1.0%)
• EU Industrial Production YoY (Feb) Y/Y -0.6% vs. Exp. -1.4% (Prev. -1.2%, Low. -1.9%, High. -1.0%)
• Polish Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.1% vs. Exp. 1% (Prev. 0.3%).
• Polish Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.4%).

Trade/Tariffs

• China is reportedly considering curbs on solar manufacturing equipment exports to the US, Reuters reported citing sources.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said tariffs could be back in place to previous levels by July, and doesn't think there's a big risk from Trump's China trip; US wants to de-risk, not decouple from China and China's global trade surplus is getting excessive.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent plans to visit Japan in mid-May, Kyodo reported.
• An Indian trade official said a trade delegation will visit the US from April 20–22nd for trade deal talks.
• Australia and Brunei committed to maintaining open trade flows, while both sides reaffirmed commitment to strengthen energy and food security.

FX

• G10s are mostly lower against the USD, with the AUD marginally outperforming whilst the CHF lags incrementally. Overall, it is a cautious mood in the FX space as markets await details on when/if the second round of US-Iran talks will begin.
• DXY trades above the 98.00 handle, which it dipped under on Tuesday. The narrative remains an optimistic one with MUFG saying it looks like "the period when investors begin throwing in the towel on the long dollar trade." and ING writing this morning that these USD levels "seem to embed a fair amount of premature optimism". The greenback sees a busy calendar ahead with comments from the US President to be aired at 11:00 BST via Fox News and several Fed speakers, including Barr (voter; no text expected) to speak on consumer compliance supervision and regulation, Hammack on CNBC (2026 voter; no text expected) and Bowman (voter, dove; no text expected) to speak at the IIF.
• It is worth noting that the USD saw some mild strength following a piece in the Washington Post, which suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” - the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
• Several updates for the UK this morning, with Times and Sky News scoops lacking good news for the Chancellor. On the domestic front, The Times hears that UK Chancellor Reeves is looking to back down on plans to increase fuel duty by 5p a litre from September; the suggestion is that the move would cost about GBP 2.6bln. On defence, Chancellor Reeves is said to have proposed only increasing defence spending by less than GBP 10bln over the next four years, fearing a bigger increase would be unaffordable. On the docket ahead, the Chancellor is planning to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in the US today. It should not be a game-changer. She is expected to touch on the Strait of Hormuz, the need to stabilise markets, and potentially to confirm the UK's participation in the EU’s EUR 90bln loan to Ukraine, POLITICO reported. BoE's Greene and Bailey to speak later in the day. As sterling digests these updates, EUR/GBP trades unchanged below the key 0.87 mark, while Cable is also unchanged as it pulled back from Tuesday's 1.3589 high.

Central Banks

• ECB President Lagarde said ECB is in a good position to respond to the Iran situation, adds would be a mistake to say we need to look through the shock, and it's just too soon to make such a conclusion.
• ECB's Rehn said tightening is not guaranteed, the policy path depends a lot on how the Middle East conflict evolves.
• BoK Governor nominee Shin said South Korea inflation is to accelerate and external risks pose uncertainty. Sees upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on the economy. Risks may expand further and economic growth may weaken. To seek to stabilise prices and financial stability, and will work to internationalise the won. Monetary policy needs to act if there are prolonged inflationary pressures stemming from Iran war.
• SNB, ahead of the end-2027 introduction of the PSFF, has decided to lower the special-rate surcharge from 50bps to 25bps as of July 1st.
• The PBoC raises the leverage ratios for bank's overseas loans.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are currently mixed, with USTs a little lower whilst Bunds and Gilts continue to build on recent strength. The geopolitical environment appears to be easing, with traders now digesting President Trump’s latest comments, where he stated that he views the war as being very close to over, adding that he does not think it will be necessary to extend a ceasefire. Given the generally positive mood music, crude prices remain at recent lows, reducing inflationary implications on the economy for the time being. Markets await further commentary from POTUS at 11:00 BST.
• It is worth noting that USTs dipped into the red in recent trade after a piece in the Washington Post suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” - the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks. US paper currently trades at the lower end of a 111-14 to 111-21 range. Geopols aside, import/export prices, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Fed’s Beige Book, TIC/foreign bond investment data are due. On the speaker slate, Fed’s Barr, Bowman and Hammack are all on the docket.
• Bunds are firmer by c. 10 ticks, and towards the lower end of a 125.35 to 125.40 range. Further pressure in German paper could see a breach below Tuesday’s close at 125.32, and then 125.21 (50% fib of Tuesday’s move). No move to the 2048, 2052 and 2056 Bund auctions. From a yield perspective, the GE 2yr oscillates around near-term troughs at 2.53%, but well off the levels seen pre-war. UniCredit analysts highlight that following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, the German 10/30yr spread has bull-steeped and is currently trading at 56bps, 14bps higher than the recent trough. Despite the recent hopes of an end of the conflict, the analysts do not see the spread returning to the pre-conflict 67bps anytime soon.
• Gilts gapped higher by 30 ticks, briefly extended to a peak of 89.31, before scaling back off those levels as the morning progressed to make a trough of 88.88. As above, Gilts moved higher on the geopolitical optimism, before moving off best levels alongside peers. In terms of the BoE, money markets currently assign no chance of a hike in April, and fully price in a 25bps hike in September – ultimately, markets remain cautious about the inflationary implications of the Iran conflict, despite signs of easing tensions. Focus today will be on BoE speak from Greene (15:15 BST), and Bailey, the latter slated to speak twice; in recent commentary, the Governor believed markets were “getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes”.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, US President Trump told Fox that he sees the Iran war as “very close to being over” and said talks could resume “over the next two days”; the full interview is due to air at 11:00BST/06:00EDT. Elsewhere, it was also reported that discussions are underway regarding a possible extension of the temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US. That being said, it’s worth noting that Pakistan’s leadership will be away until April 18th, which dims the prospects of a US-Iran meeting before that date, according to local journalists.
• Crude prices were hit on Tuesday as traders weighed prospects for a second round of US-Iran talks against the near-total double blockade of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Early morning action saw both Brent Jun and WTI Jun trade on either side of the unchanged mark, and near recent lows. However, the complex gradually lifted off lows as the morning progressed, and then took a leg higher to session peaks following a WaPo piece which suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” - the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks. Brent Jun currently holds at the upper end of a USD 93.93-96.25/bbl range; WTI Jun also firmer today, within a USD 84.70-89.75/bbl range.
• Gold eased into the European session and currently resides in a USD 4,792-4,871/oz range at the time of writing. Some desks view the recent move as technical, with prices bouncing off the 200 DMA in late March. Base metal prices are mostly but modestly firmer. London copper has now erased all losses triggered by the conflict, moving above its 27th February close as traders focused on possible peace talks. 3M LME copper resides in a tight USD 13,251.45- 13,391.60/t range.
• Codelco is in talks with India’s Hindustan Copper over a joint venture for Chilean copper.
• Japan plans to extend private sector oil release by one month, according to TV Asahi.
• Venezuela's Interim President Rodriguez called for a long-term energy partnership with the US.
• White House said more than 100 empty oil tankers are on their way to U.S. ports to load American crude, CBS reported. Of the 103 empty vessels, 54 are Very Large Crude Carriers capable of transporting approximately two million barrels. Among them were "20 empty tankers under European flags and 20 under Asian flags" that had "recently unloaded elsewhere".
• US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +6.1mln (exp -1.3mln), Distillate -3.4mln (exp. -2.5mln), Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing -1.7mln.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Apr 10 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.8%
• 8:30 am: United States Apr Empire Manufacturing, est. 0, prior -0.2
• 8:30 am: United States Mar Import Price Index MoM, est. 2.3%, prior 1.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Barr in Moderated Discussion
• 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Hammack Appears on CNBC
• 1:45 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks at IIF Forum
• 2:00 pm: United States Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4:00 pm: United States Feb Total Net TIC Flows, prior -25.02b
• 4:00 pm: United States Feb Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 15.51b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Hopes for a de-escalation between the US and Iran have continued to propel markets higher this morning, with Trump saying overnight that “I think it’s close to over.” So oil prices have remained steady, with Brent crude at $95.26/bbl, and the surge for risk assets has continued. Indeed, yesterday saw the S&P 500 (+1.18%) close just shy of its record high, meaning that the index is now up +9.8% over the last 10 sessions. For reference, that’s now even faster than the bounceback after Liberation Day last year, and we haven’t seen a run of gains that quick over 10 sessions since the post-Covid bounceback in April 2020. That optimism has continued overnight, with futures on the S&P 500 up +0.08%, and we’ve seen gains across Asian equities as well. For instance, the Nikkei (+0.82%), the KOSPI (+2.92%), the Hang Seng (+0.76%) and the CSI 300 (+0.17%) are all on track for a one-month high.

All that follows more positive headlines over the last 24 hours, which have led to mounting hopes that the US and Iran will be back at the negotiating table soon. Among others, Trump himself said yesterday to the New York Post that talks “could be happening over the next two days” in Pakistan. And that echoed a report from Reuters earlier in the day, which said that negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Islamabad this week, according to four sources. So there was a general sense that there was still a pathway towards de-escalation, and overnight, ABC’s Jonathan Karl also said that Trump told him “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead”. Over on the Iranian side, there were also headlines suggesting they wanted a deal, with Bloomberg reporting that Iran was considering a short-term pause to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, to avoid testing the US blockade and derailing any further peace talks.3

Nevertheless, that US blockade does remain in place, and US Central Command announced that 6 merchant ships were turned around and forced to re-enter an Iranian port during the first day of the US blockade. Overnight, the CENTCOM Commander also said that the blockade of Iran’s ports “has been fully implemented”, and that “U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea”. But even with the Strait of Hormuz, investors were still hopeful about some kind of reopening, with the WSJ reporting last night that European countries were putting together plans for a coalition of countries to free up the Strait of Hormuz, which would include sending mine-clearing vessels.

Collectively, this newsflow has continued to support markets, as it’s eased investor fears about a stagflationary shock. Indeed, Brent crude oil has now closed beneath $100/bbl for over a week now, and yesterday it fell another -4.60% to $94.79/bbl. Moreover, investors continue to believe the conflict will be a temporary one, with the oil futures curve still having a sharp negative slope. For example, the 6-month Brent future was down -2.18% yesterday to $82.48/bbl, and the 12-month future was down -1.66% to $77.75/bbl.

Given all that, US markets put in a strong performance, as growing hopes for a ceasefire and lower oil prices helped to support bonds and equities. So the S&P 500 (+1.18%) closed just shy of its record high from late-January, having now risen for 9 of the last 10 sessions. That was powered by the Magnificent 7 (+5.49%), which saw its strongest performance in the last two weeks, although the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.32%) also advanced. The hope of lower energy prices helped consumer cyclicals such as Media (+3.5%), Autos (+3.4%), and Consumer Discretionary Retail (+2.8%) to outperform, while Energy (-2.2%) and Banks (-0.9%) lagged. Meanwhile, there were further signs that the financial stress was easing more broadly, with the VIX index (-0.8pts) falling to just 18.36pts, its lowest since late-February, before the strikes began. In addition, US HY spreads (-11bps) fell to their tightest level in two months, at 268bps.

Over on the rates side, US Treasuries also rallied yesterday, with a further boost after the PPI inflation reading was softer than expected. It showed headline PPI was only up +0.5% in March (vs. +1.1% expected), meaning that the year-on-year measure only rose to +4.0% (vs. +4.6% expected). So that helped to ease fears about a larger wave of inflation, particularly after Friday’s CPI. And in turn, yields fell back across the curve yesterday, with the 2yr yield (-2.7bps) falling to 3.74%, whilst the 10yr yield (-4.5bps) fell to 4.25%. That was the lowest level on the 10yr yield since mid-March, and it’s down another -0.2bps overnight.

There was also some news on the Fed yesterday, as it was confirmed that Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing to become Fed Chair would be held on Tuesday. So that’ll be a crucial moment for markets, as we’ll start to get a better understanding of Warsh’s policy views and where things might head over the years ahead. To date, the barrier to Warsh’s confirmation has been that Senator Thom Tillis, a retiring Republican senator on the Committee, has said he won’t support any Fed nominees until the Department of Justice probe into Chair Powell is resolved. But the committee chair Tim Scott said yesterday that “I believe that the DOJ will finish and wrap this up in the next several weeks”. The other outstanding question is whether Powell would stay on the Board of Governors once his term as Chair concludes, as his Board seat goes up until January 2028. So far, Powell hasn’t confirmed either way, only saying that he will remain on the Board while the investigation is ongoing. But in a scenario where the investigation has concluded, he hasn’t confirmed his intentions.

Staying with the US administration, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the tariffs which were struck down by the Supreme Court could be restored to previous levels by mid-Summer. In remarks during a Wall Street Journal event, Bessent said “we will be implementing or conducting Section 301 studies, so the tariffs could be back in place at the previous level by beginning of July.” As a reminder, since the IEEPA tariffs were struck down, the administration have implemented a 10% global tariff, but that will expire on July 24 without congressional authorisation.

Earlier in Europe, markets also put in a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.99%) up to a one-month high. The main driver was the decline in oil prices, and we also heard from ECB President Lagarde, who said that the ECB didn’t have a tightening bias. So that combination helped to ease investor concerns about an imminent ECB rate hike, with market pricing for an April hike down to 28% by the close, having been at 42% the previous day. So that helped bonds to rally as well, with yields on 10yr bunds (-6.8bps), OATs (-9.1bps) and BTPs (-10.7bps) all moving lower.

Finally, the IMF published their latest World Economic Outlook yesterday, where they downgraded their global growth forecasts and upgraded inflation. So global growth is now seen at +3.1% this year, down two-tenths from January. The downgrades were biggest in the areas directly affected by the conflict, with the Middle East and Central Asia slashed by two points to +1.9%. Meanwhile on inflation, they now see global consumer prices up +4.4% this year, six-tenths above the January forecast.

Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Cipollone, Escriva, Villeroy and Schnabel, the Fed’s Barr and Bowman, and BoE Governor Bailey. Data releases include Euro Area industrial production for February. Finally, earnings releases include Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 08:38

Nvidia Unveils New AI Open Model, Sparking Rally In Quantum Stocks

Nvidia unveiled the world's first open-source AI models to accelerate the development of quantum computing. The news sent shares of several Asian software and cybersecurity firms soaring and sparked a rally in U.S.-listed quantum stocks in premarket trading.

Nvidia's Ising open-model family is designed to improve two critical areas: quantum processor calibration and quantum error correction. Nvidia claims the models deliver calibration capabilities it describes as industry-leading, while its decoding tools operate 2.5 times faster and achieve up to 3x greater accuracy than traditional open-source approaches.

"AI is essential to making quantum computing practical," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated.

Jensen continued, "With Ising, AI becomes the control plane, the operating system of quantum machines, transforming fragile qubits into scalable and reliable quantum-GPU systems."

In South Korea, shares of software and cybersecurity firms, including Axgate Co. and ICTK Co., jumped to the 30% daily trading limit. China's GuoChuang Software Co. and QuantumCTek Co., along with Japan's Fixstars Corp., rose at least 8%.

In the U.S., D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) rose 10%, while IonQ Inc. (IONQ) and Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) climbed 5.9% following the Nvidia news.

Amid the hype in quantum stocks, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Robert Lea reminded traders, "While these tools can potentially help accelerate developments, the deployment of practical, large-scale quantum computing remains a long way off."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 08:20

Tether Launches Self-Custodial Wallet Supporting USDT, Bitcoin, & Tokenized Gold

Authored by Naga Avan-Nomayo via TheBlock.co,

Tether, issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, is stepping further out from behind the rails with the launch of its self-custodial wallet, which it says is designed to put its payments infrastructure directly in the hands of users, rather than operating solely as a backend layer for crypto markets.

The application, dubbed tether.wallet, targets "billions of users left behind by the traditional financial system," the firm said in a Tuesday announcement.

Tether stated that it also builds on a network that already reaches more than 570 million people globally.

Until now, that infrastructure has largely powered liquidity, settlement, and payments across crypto rather than serving as a direct consumer product.

The wallet focuses on a narrow set of assets. It supports digital dollars via USDT and USAT, tokenized gold through XAUT, and bitcoin -  a mix Tether says reflects "the only assets that truly matter for most of the people."

Moreover, the product also strips out several long-standing friction points in crypto.

Users can send funds using human-readable identifiers, instead of wallet addresses. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the aim is to make digital asset transfers "as easily as sending a message," without intermediaries or loss of custody.

Transaction fees can be paid directly in the asset being transferred, removing the need for separate gas tokens.

Private keys remain fully user-controlled, with all transactions signed locally on-device, per the company’s statement.

Tether’s expansion

The launch extends a broader push by Tether to move up the stack from issuer and infrastructure provider toward consumer-facing products.

In recent months, the company has open-sourced its Wallet Development Kit to enable self-custodial wallets for both humans and AI agents, backed crypto wallet integrations in platforms like Rumble, and supported stablecoin payout systems through investments such as Whop.

That direction ties into Ardoino’s longer-term view that future financial activity will not be limited to humans.

He has previously argued that AI agents will require native, self-custodial wallets and will rely on bitcoin and stablecoins for machine-to-machine payments.

It appears tether.wallet is built on that same foundation.

The app runs on Tether’s open-source Wallet Development Kit, supporting transactions across humans, machines and AI systems, with support for networks including Ethereum, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Bitcoin’s Lightning Network.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 08:05