Did Trump Doom The SAVE America Act?

Recent polling makes one thing abundantly clear: the American people are firmly behind election integrity, and the SAVE America Act is right in line with where voters already are. 

According to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, support for the legislation clocks in at 71%, with strong backing from independents and even a sizable chunk of Democrats. That shouldn’t surprise anyone when you look at the specifics. Voter ID alone commands 81% support, with majorities across the political spectrum. Eight in ten Americans want states to clean non-citizens off voter rolls, and 75% support requiring proof of citizenship to vote. The poll also found that 85% of Americans agree that only U.S. citizens should be able to vote in U.S. elections, with overwhelming majorities of independents and Democrats.

A majority backs sharing voter rolls with the Department of Homeland Security, and 60% describe the SAVE America Act as a commonsense way to prevent fraud and secure elections.

Meanwhile, 58% of Americans acknowledge that voter fraud exists to some degree—something the political class has spent years trying to downplay.

There is nothing controversial about the law, but President Donald Trump may have doomed the bill when he moved to include stricter provisions for mail-in voting, such as eliminating no-excuse absentee ballots.

Trump laid out his demands in a Truth Social post earlier this month, and Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) will offer those changes as an amendment. 

Despite the overwhelming popularity of the law and its provisions, that shift collided head-on with Republicans who represent states where voting by mail is not just accepted, but embedded in the electoral system.

 Senate Republican sources began signaling that the votes were no longer there.

What had been a messaging win started to look like a procedural failure.

 “I think it’s problematic because in some of these states, 60 or 70 percent of people vote by mail,” a Republican senator told The Hill.

“You don’t want to disenfranchise them. Some states have really encouraged it over the years.”

Some of the concerns are legitimate.

In large, rural states, distances are not abstract talking points. They are measured in hours. Limiting absentee voting to narrow categories, such as illness or military service, would force many voters to travel significant distances to cast a ballot.

That includes a substantial number of Republican voters. That is why states like Montana and Utah have embraced absentee or all-mail systems. Utah, in particular, is a GOP stronghold built that has universal mail voting. The model works there. It has worked for years.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune faced a narrow path from the start. Advancing the bill required peeling off between seven and ten Democrats, a tall order even before the internal Republican divisions surfaced. After the changes, the math is close to impossible.

Then factor in that Republican officials in swing states have spent months encouraging vote-by-mail participation ahead of the midterms. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all factor into that strategy. Pulling back now introduces both logistical and political risk.

The core of the SAVE America Act is the citizenship requirement and Voter ID, both of which enjoy broad support.

Those provisions could have anchored a focused, disciplined bill and a unified GOP.

Trump’s push to overhaul absentee voting appears to have fractured the coalition. If that’s a sticking point for Trump, the SAVE America Act may be DOA.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:25

Russia Evacuates Hundreds Of Its Specialists From Iran's Nuclear Bushehr Complex After Missile Strike

Russia has lodged formal protest with Israel following its reported strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility, angrily warning that the attacks directly endangered Russian personnel on the ground.

Israeli and Russian media have confirmed that Moscow issued a sharp condemnation and warnings of a red line after Israeli forces reportedly hit the grounds of the nuclear power plant where Russian specialists are stationed.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had also earlier provided independent verification that a missile struck the Bushehr complex on Tuesday evening, although no damage to the plant or injuries to staff were reported.

The Kremlin made clear to Israel that Russian nationals working in and around the facility were put at risk. Russian state media described the communication delivered to Israel via the Russian embassy "official demands" - which indicates a formal escalation in diplomatic pressure.

Even more provocative is that reports indicate Israeli strikes may have directly targeted residential quarters housing a Russian nuclear expert.

According to TASS: "Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev specified that the strike had hit the area near the office of the facility’s meteorological service, in close proximity to an operating power unit, at 3:11 p.m. GMT on March 17." It was the first such known strike on an Iranian nuclear plant since Trump's Operation Epic Fury began.

The Rosatom chief has indicated that several rounds of personnel evaluation from the Bushehr NPP are underway. There were many hundreds of Russian scientists, personnel, and technicians at the site. He indicated about 480 Russian nationals remain at the site.

"Attacks on nuclear facilities blatantly violate the key rules and principles of international security," Likhachev emphasized.

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has also urged "maximum restraint" during the conflict in order to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident. Just like war in Ukraine has threatened nuclear power sites, so has the Iran conflict raised concerns over nuclear fallout and radiation - in the instance of a strike leading to major accident.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:10

Appeals Court Refuses Trump's Request To Reconsider CNN Defamation Suit

President Donald Trump’s defamation lawsuit against CNN appears to be dead for the time being, as an appeals court denied his motion to rehear the case.

A three-judge panel had held in November that Trump hadn’t done enough to show that CNN compared him to Adolph Hitler when it described his claims about the 2020 election as “the Big Lie.” In a brief unsigned order on March 17, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit said that none of its judges asked for a vote to reconsider the case.

Trump told the circuit that the three-judge panel erred.

He wanted the full panel to consider whether his case should be decided by a jury instead of the court, and to reconsider whether the statements made by the network’s journalists allowed him to sue.

The order also ruled out the possibility of a rehearing by the original three-judge panel.

As Stacy Robinson reports for The Epoch Times, Trump sued CNN in 2022 after the network’s journalists repeatedly referred to his disputation of the 2020 election results as a “Big Lie.”

That terminology has historically been used in reference to Hitler’s Nazi regime, his propagandist Joseph Goebbels, and the push for a genocide of the Jewish people.

“CNN has acknowledged that the term the ‘Big Lie’ is a direct reference to Adolf Hitler and Nazism and uses the term in relation to the Plaintiff to create a false and incendiary association between the Plaintiff and Hitler,” Trump’s complaint alleged.

A district court found that CNN’s language was just “hyperbole,” and not meant literally. They dismissed the case.

In a unanimous decision, the 11th Circuit affirmed that dismissal. “To be clear, CNN has never explicitly claimed that Trump’s ‘actions and statements were designed to be, and actually were, variations of those [that] Hitler used to suppress and destroy populations,’” its decision read.

Trump wanted the full panel to determine if his case warranted a jury trial, and reconsider whether the CNN journalists’ language allowed him to sue.

CNN asked the court to toss out the case, saying the term “Big Lie” is “rhetorical hyperbole and does not refer to Hitler or Nazism.” Trump could not prove the network acted with “actual malice,” by publishing statements it knew were false, CNN argued.

“Actual malice is an extremely high evidentiary burden for any plaintiff to meet, much less the former President of the United States of America, and he has utterly failed to meet that burden here,” CNN’s response brief reads.

In July 2023, Florida District Judge Raag Singhal dismissed Trump’s suit with prejudice, meaning it cannot be brought again.

He ruled that there was “no question” that such statements met the standard for defamation under the law. But, he said, they were statements of opinion, and not fact—even though he found them to be “odious and repugnant.”

“CNN’s use of the phrase ’the Big Lie' in connection with Trump’s election challenges does not give rise to a plausible inference that Trump advocates the persecution and genocide of Jews or any other group of people,” Singhal wrote.

“No reasonable viewer could (or should) plausibly make that reference.”

Trump appealed that ruling, arguing the judge had failed “to consider the totality and context of the defamatory statements,” by “finding that CNN’s statements were pure opinion or rhetorical hyperbole.”

The CNN case is one of several defamation suits Trump has brought against news outlets. Last year, the president sued the Wall Street Journal for publishing a birthday card he allegedly sent to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. That case is ongoing.

In 2024, Trump obtained a $15 million settlement against ABC and its anchor George Stephanopoulos, who claimed on air that Trump was “found liable for rape.”

Last September, a judge threw out a $15 billion suit against the New York Times and some of its reporters on the grounds that Trump’s legal brief broke court rules: It was unnecessarily lengthy and contained improper language, the judge ruled.

Trump refiled that suit in October.

The president has also teed up a suit against the BBC, after reports it had altered a video of him speaking to supporters at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to make it appear as if he was promoting violence. The BBC on March 16 asked the court to dismiss the suit.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 09:25

The post The “Fraud” Fraud appeared first on CEPR.

Data Centers Look To Liquid Cooling As AI Future Heats Up

Authored by Bruce Parker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The boom in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and hyperscale facilities has created a growth opportunity for businesses that keep cloud- and AI-related computer servers from overheating.

A worker walks among racks and network switches at the LightEdge Solutions data center in Altoona, Iowa, on Oct. 15, 2019. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Cooling is essential for electronics. Without it, today’s high-performance computer chips would literally melt down.

Navid Kazem is an electronics cooling expert and general chair of Semi-Therm, a leading global conference on thermal solutions for electronic components. He told The Epoch Times that data centers cannot function without proper cooling.

“You can burn down the chip pretty easily if you don’t have an effective cooling solution,” he said.

“What happens is the temperature of the chip rises to such high levels that you can effectively burn the chip.”

According to Kazem, silicon processors operate reliably at junction temperatures of 194–212 degrees Fahrenheit (90–100 degrees Celsius). If they rise much higher than 248 degrees Fahrenheit (120 degrees Celsius), they burn.

“The question comes down to, how can we cool them and keep them in that temperature range while spending as little energy as possible as we can,” he said. “So, there is a big push toward being able to use warm liquid for liquid cooling to cool this down.”

Switching From Air to Liquid

Data centers currently support rack power requirements of about 20 kilowatts. Since the latest central processing units and graphics processing units have higher thermal density than previous generations, that requirement is projected to exceed 50 kilowatts in the future.

A technician works at an Amazon Web Services artificial intelligence data center in New Carlisle, Ind., on Oct. 2, 2025. Noah Berger for AWS/Reuters

But as high-performance AI computing becomes increasingly heat-intensive and energy-intensive, conventional air cooling—the traditional approach to heat management—cannot keep up.

“When you go from air cooling to liquid cooling, you can save between 20 [percent] and 30 percent of the energy for the whole data center,” Kazem said.

“The most important thing is the amount of energy they are required to use. So if you can reduce the energy required for cooling, that means that you can have a more sustainable data center.”

Not only are air-cooling systems less effective at dissipating heat, but they also require more energy—sometimes more electricity than the servers themselves.

And since water is up to 3,000 times more effective at heat transfer than air and uses less electricity, data center operators are exploring ways to switch to liquid.

Liquid Cooling Options

Operators have three liquid-cooling options for managing heat: rear-door heat exchangers, direct-to-chip liquid cooling, and immersion cooling.

The first involves replacing the rear door of the IT equipment rack with a liquid heat exchanger. This option is used in tandem with air cooling.

With direct-to-chip liquid cooling, cold plates are placed on the board’s heat-generating components to draw heat away with single-phase cold plates or two-phase evaporation units. This technology removes up to 75 percent of the heat produced within the racks, while the remaining heat is whisked away by air.

In immersion cooling, servers and other components in the rack are submerged in a thermally conductive dielectric fluid. This system eliminates the need for air cooling and is the most energy-efficient of the three.

Which Is More Common: Air or Liquid?

According to recent market data, most existing data centers are currently air cooled, but liquid cooling is on the rise.

A survey conducted by S&P Global Market Intelligence of data center operators found that 45 percent use a fully air-cooled system, while 42 percent use a hybrid air-and-liquid-cooled system. Just 12 percent use liquid cooling only.

However, when asked about their plans for the next five years, 59 percent of respondents said their organization expects to adopt liquid cooling.

Of the three liquid-cooling options, 45 percent of respondents preferred liquid-to-air direct-to-chip, while 41 percent preferred liquid-to-liquid direct-to-chip.

An additional 41 percent said they would opt for the rear-door heat exchanger and 37 percent said they prefer a fully submerged cooling system.

Market Trends

Overall, the liquid cooling market is projected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2026 to $38.4 billion in 2033, according to a report put out last month by market research firm Market Minds Advisory.

Top players in the space, the report states, include Schneider Electric, Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Green Revolution Cooling, Submer, LiquidStack, and Asetek Inc.

The trend was evident at last week’s 42nd annual Semi-Therm conference, a four-day symposium held in San Jose, California. The conference featured thermal engineers, researchers, and scientists for all-day sessions and short courses, and it attracted about 400 attendees, including engineers and planners from the hyperscale data center industry.

“Data centers and liquid cooling is one of the hot topics right now,” Laura Dobbs, marketing and exhibits manager for Semi-Therm, told The Epoch Times.

“For example, we have a track on liquid cooling, and we have a track on high-performance computer thermal interface management. ... As data centers have continued to grow, liquid cooling has become a very important piece of that, versus air cooling.”

According to Kazem, design teams from the hyperscalers and data center companies attend Semi-Therm “to learn about the latest technologies.”

“It’s mostly about the energy consumption, and how much of cooling we can do for these data centers that are having very high, high-powered densities,” he said.

“So, that has become a major issue, and the conference this year is reflecting that challenge and opportunities ahead.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 09:05

Iran Intel Chief Killed As Israel Grants IDF 'Free Hand' To Eliminate Leaders; Trump Muses Tehran Could Be 'Finished Off' Summary:

•  Israel says Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated overnight as pace of top leadership killings accelerates.

• Israeli attack on Iran's major South Pars gas field could trigger retaliation on Saudi oil fields.

• President Trump issues posts musing whether US should 'finish off' Iran, though Tehran signals continuity & stability of govt.

• Iran FM says no change in nuclear posture: vows Tehran not pursuing an atomic bomb.

*  *  *

Iran Intel Chief Killed In 3rd High-Level Hit

More decimation of Iranian top leadership, as Israel's defense minister Israel Katz has announced Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated in an overnight strike, which marks yet another alleged high-level hit as the tempo of targeted killings accelerates. "On this day, significant surprises are expected across all arenas that will escalate the war we are conducting against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon," Katz warned in a military briefing, according to Israeli media.

If confirmed, the reported hit would mark the third top-tier Iranian figure eliminated in just 48 hours, following Israeli strikes that reportedly killed national security chief Ali Larijani, who was likely effectively running the war, and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani.

Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib Trump Posts: Finish Them

President Donald Trump posts Wednesday: I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called “Straight?” That would get some of our non-responsive “Allies” in gear, and fast! 

Trump also said in a rapid follow-up that "We are rapidly putting them out of business!"

Still, Iran is signaling continuity, not collapse, even as newspapers in America run celebratory headlines such as "Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pushed back on the narrative of systemic breakdown, insisting the Islamic Republic "does not rely on a single individual."

Meanwhile, unconfirmed chatter suggests parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf may have narrowly survived an assassination attempt in northern Tehran. There are indicators that he too may be running the day-to-day of the government and of the wartime response; however, it's also clear the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is firmly in control of the country.

Israel Gives Military Freedom Of Elimination Strikes

As a reminder of analysis we featured earlier in the conflict, "Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore." Journalist Jeremy Scahill, who starting over two decades ago covered the lead-up to the Iraq war from on the ground in Baghdad, has reiterated that "In asymmetric warfare, the less powerful side does not need to militarily defeat an adversary, but rather force it to a point where it determines the costs of continuing the war is too high."

The US-Israeli operation is seeking to so utterly smash the country and its leadership, and potentially bring people out to the streets to topple the government, so as to avid reaching this dilemma. Israel is said to be working with spies and spotters on the ground, which Basij forces have sought to expose and arrest.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the killing of Ali Larijani:

I do not know why the Americans and the Israelis still have not understood this point.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has a strong political structure with established political, economic, and social… pic.twitter.com/v6cgyjaoU3

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 18, 2026

But just as Iran is clearly trying to adapt, by reportedly allowing autonomy of command among military units in the instance of being cut off from top leadership, so is Israeli too adapting its strategy and tactics. Katz has confirmed that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have granted the military standing authorization to eliminate additional senior Iranian officials, with no case-by-case approval required. Or in other words, the Israeli decapitation efforts are now on autopilot, signaling greater escalation.

More Patriots in Turkey After Third Iran Missile Flyover

Escalation isn't just contained to the US-led Operation Epic Fury inside Iran. In Turkey, NATO is reinforcing its posture, deploying another US Patriot battery to Adana alongside existing systems - soon on the heels of the alliance reportedly having intercepted a third Iranian ballistic missile that briefly entered Turkish airspace this week.

Meanwhile, Iran's own retaliatory footprint is widening, as it vows "revenge" for the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders. A strike near the Al Minhad base in the UAE, which hosts Australian troops, sparked a fire that damaged facilities, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed while saying that thankfully though no personnel were injured.

Dubai, long marketed as the region's stable and quiet "safe haven" - continues to witness nightly sounds of air defense fire. The UAE confirmed its systems intercepted a barrage of threats, with fighter jets also scrambling in response to the threat overnight. 

Tehran Signals No Change in Nuclear Posture

Tehran, for its part, is surprisingly signaling that it has no intention of developing a nuclear weapon. It's hard to evaluate any such official stance in the middle of a war for survival, but FM Araghchi on Wednesday reiterated that Iran's nuclear posture "won’t significantly change" - even as military leaders warn of a "decisive and regrettable" response to Israeli strikes. 

Tehran holds funeral ceremony for security chief Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani. pic.twitter.com/4sjTyzzJgj

— Ihtisham Ul Haq (@iihtishamm) March 18, 2026

Nuclear sites have come under direct threat during the war, with Tuesday a projectile reportedly having near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear facility, though local officials say no damage occurred.

In Washington, there's some clear doubling down militarily on the part of the Trump administration, while the question of finding an offramp is still likely being hotly debated within White House and national security circles. On the political front, the closer the US gets to Memorial Day travel with gas prices climbing higher, the more politically costly it is likely to be for Republicans.

South Pars Gas Field, Hormuz, Israel

The International Maritime Organization is scrambling to convene an emergency session on establishing a "safe maritime corridor" as ships and crews remain essentially trapped in the Persian Gulf. Crucially, Bloomberg is reporting that the attack on South Pars gas field appears to be from Israel and that Iran has vowed it would retaliated against regional energy infrastructure if attacked in such a way. Oil facilities have also reportedly been struck.

Axios' Barak Ravid has cited a senior Israeli official to report Wednesday: "The Israeli Air Force struck the largest natural gas processing facility in Iran, located in the southwest of the country. The strike was carried out in coordination with and with the approval of the U.S."

⚡️Earlier this morning, Israeli warplanes demolished a building in Al-Bashoura in Beirut pic.twitter.com/Y7zhlZNTho

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 18, 2026

Iranian missiles killed civilians overnight near Tel Aviv, and Israeli rail lines were disrupted along with a pause in many civic and public services, as people seek shelters. "An elderly couple, identified as Yaron and Ilana Moshe, were killed early Wednesday morning in Ramat Gan by a cluster missile as Iran continued to fire salvoes at Israel through the night and into the morning," Times of Israel reports. "From midnight to 8 a.m., there were four rounds of missile fire that caused injuries and damage to property."

⚡️Holon, Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/HSkN9PigTA

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 18, 2026

Lebanon and Beirut are once again under fire as Israel expands strikes against Hezbollah positions in the southern part of Lebanese capital - with whole central buildings on fire and in some instances collapsing. A ground war has also been once again opening in southern Lebanon.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 08:45

Futures Slump, Erasing Overnight Gains After Iran's Giant Pars Field Attacked; FOMC Looms

Stocks were set to extend gains into a third day as Iraq’s deal to reroute crude via Turkey, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, eased some supply concerns as Iranian strikes target Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, but it all unwound shortly after 7am ET,  following an Iranian report that US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure; Oil and petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added rekindling fears about the impact of the war in the Middle East on inflation. Aa a result S&P futures erased all of their overnight gains, fading what was earlier a 0.6% rise, and trading in the red. Nasdaq also faded all of its gains, and was trading flat at last check. All of this happens just hours before the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2pm ET today. Bond yields were down 1-2bp into the Fed meeting where the Fed is expected to hold rates steady with the dots potentially reflecting a hawkish outlook; the USD is flat. In commodities oil / natgas prices are lower but are off their overnight lows with Ags / Metals lower. Today’s macro data focus is on PPI and the Fed meeting.

In premarket trading,  Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Nvidia +0.7%, Tesla +0.5%, Microsoft +0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%, Apple +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.1%, Amazon -0.1%)

• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) rally after the companies announced updates and spoke to optical demand at the Optical Fiber Communications Conference in Los Angeles.
• CF Industries (CF) falls 4.3% after Mizuho Securities cut its recommendation on the fertilizer company to underperform from neutral after the stock price rallied on expected growth in demand and prices after the Iran war and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz tightened fertilizer supply.
• Constellation Brands (STZ) is up 2.8% after Citi raised the recommendation on the beverage company to buy from neutral, citing a beer topline acceleration and a valuation that’s below historical levels.
• Coupang (CPNG) is up 2.6% after the company said that its collaboration with Nvidia helped it build an AI platform that will support the firm’s e-commerce logistics and delivery services.
• Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) falls 1.3% after Argus Research downgraded the language learning software company to hold from buy.
• Gemini Space Station Inc. (GEMI) is down 1.8% after Citi analyst Peter Christiansen cut its recommendation on the crypto exchange to sell from neutral.
• Grail Inc. (GRAL) rises 4.5% after TD Cowen upgraded the life sciences company to buy from hold, saying the recent selloff creates an “attractive entry.”
• SL Green (SLG) is up 2.7% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the office REIT to buy from hold.
• Swarmer Inc. (SWMR) jumps 35%, set to extend gains after the artificial intelligence drone software company notched the best trading debut for a US stock in nearly a year.
• T1 Energy (TE) is up 3.9% after the solar equipment maker said it secured 50 MW of grid power in Norway for a data center.

In corporate news, Lululemon forecast a second-straight year of profit declines, further pressuring the brand that’s dealing with product mishaps while searching for a new CEO.  AI remains in focus, with Asian memory stocks extending gains after Reuters reported Amazon’s CEO seeing ⁠AWS reaching $600 billion in annual sales — double his own prior estimate —  and as Samsung considers a shift toward multi-year contracts for memory chips. Wall Street will be looking for any commentary from Micron on how long prices could remain elevated, when the company reports results after the close. Alibaba is raising prices for its AI computing and storage products by as much as 34%. AI stocks in China got a lift after Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said OpenClaw, an agent that uses large language models to perform tasks like hailing a ride and booking restaurants, was “definitely the next ChatGPT.”

Markets remain on high alert over the war and the risk that a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz stokes inflation. How policymakers respond is now top of mind for investors, with the Fed expected to hold rates unchanged for a second straight meeting.

Iranian attacks on Israel and Arab states in the Persian Gulf continued overnight into Wednesday, while President Trump said the US could end the war with the Islamic Republic “in the near future.” The attacks followed Iran confirming the assassination of its security chief, Ali Larijani, in an Israeli strike. Meanwhile, sentiment deteriorated rapidly and oil prices spiked to a session high after Iran said shortly after 7am ET that US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure. Oil and petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added. An attack, if confirmed, would mark the first time Iran’s upstream oil and gas facilities have been targeted in this war. The field is shared with Qatar.

Israel said Wednesday that Iranian intelligence minister, Esmaeil Khatib was killed. Earlier, President Donald Trump said the US could end the war with the Islamic Republic “in the near future.”

“Equity markets are following the oil price quite closely, and at this stage what we’re seeing is perhaps that they are pricing in the most positive outcome,” said Nina Stanojevic, investment specialist at St. James’s Place. “That, I think, leaves equity markets quite vulnerable.”

Even if oil prices stabilize, they remain elevated and the longer they stay there, the greater the macro implications, which could be a source of focus for this week’s busy central bank slate. 

Today at 2pm ET, the Fed is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady. Investors will seek insight on how the central bank weighs pressures on both sides of their mandate — and whether responding to the threat of slower growth could add fuel to inflation that’s been above the Fed’s target for five years running. Ahead of Fed’s policy rate announcement, overnight swaps price in no hike premium and a combined 25bps of easing by the end of the year. Into the meeting, traders have been deleveraging in futures and unwinding hawkish policy hedges which have profited from the recent hawkish shift in policy pricing amid rising oil prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely emphasize that officials need more time to see how long the conflict with Iran lasts and to assess how it might ripple through to growth and inflation. He’s also likely to highlight the elevated level of uncertainty and the Fed’s need to keep its options open. Our full FOMC preview can be found here. 

“The market wants to understand where the Fed is leaning next,” said Stephanie Niven, portfolio manager at Ninety One. “Any shift in the median dot, any slight changes, will be really focused on.”

In geopolitics, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned she’s facing an “extremely difficult” meeting with Trump on Thursday, after he criticized the country for rebuffing his demand for warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking of Hormuz, it remains effectively shut with just three total commercial vehicle crossings in the last week.

Bank of America equity derivatives strategists warn that the current gap between realized and implied volatility is unusually wide, flagging “rising stress in still-complacent markets.” Equity resilience suggests sentiment has not reached peak bearishness and the worst is likely not over, writes Bloomberg’s Skylar Montgomery Koning. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 touched its highest level in more than a week before trimming the advance. It rose 0.5%, rising for a third day and keeping the global equity rally going after a broadly positive session in Asia. Banks and industrials lead gains in Europe, while the food and beverage sector is among the biggest laggards.Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday: 

• Diploma shares rally as much as 18% to their highest intraday level on record after the building components supplier boosted its organic revenue forecast for the full year.
• Bollore shares rise as much as 16%, the most since February 2021, after the French conglomerate announced an exceptional dividend payment.
• Softcat shares rise as much as 9.9%, the most in a year, as first-half results prove much better than analysts expected and the IT services provider lifts its full-year guidance.
• Commerzbank shares climb as much as 6.3% after UniCredit’s chief executive officer said the main purpose of Monday’s fresh takeover bid for the German lender was to “break the stalemate” and lead to a “common plan” between stakeholders.
• PPC shares gain as much as 9.6% in Johannesburg, the most in nearly a year, after the cement maker reported a 22% jump in adjusted Ebitda for the 10 months through January on the company’s strategic plan gains.
• Logitech shares drop as much as 5.9% after UBS downgrades the Swiss maker of computer peripherals, seeing signs of easing in the positive earnings revision cycle and weaker signals in the gaming market.
• HelloFresh shares drop as much as 15% to a record low after the meal-kit company’s guidance for this year’s sales and profits came in well below analyst expectations.
• Axfood shares fall as much as 5.3% after Handelsbanken joined Danske Bank in downgrading the Swedish food retailer and wholesaler, saying the case for a buy rating has played out as expected after a 20% gain since December.
• Verbund shares drop as much as 5%, the most since November, after the renewable electricity firm gave 2026 guidance that Citi said implied significant downgrades.

Asian shares climbed 1.9%, led by gains in South Korea’s Kospi as Samsung Electronics Co. jumped more than 7%.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 2.2%, adding to Tuesday’s 0.9% advance. Shares of chip giants TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix were the biggest contributors to the rally. Korea’s benchmark jumped 5% as authorities announced more measures to enhance shareholder value.  

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, pushing losses into a third-straight day

In rates, European bonds are holding higher and Treasuries also edge up although futures trade off best levels into the early US session leaving yields richer by 1bp to 2bps across the curve. US session includes PPI data and the Federal Reserve policy interest rate announcement at 2 p.m. New York. Treasuries gains led by intermediates, flattening 2s10s spread by 1.5bps and adding to Tuesday’s tightening move. The 2s10s curve now at around 50.5bp trades just inside the yearly lows at 49.6bp reached March 12. US 10-year yields trade around 4.18% with gilts outperforming by 2bp in the sector.  The two-yield Treasury yield slipped 1bp to 3.66%; traders are betting on 26bps of Fed cuts by year-end, down from around 60bps at the end of February. On Thursday, Treasury sell 10-year TIPS in a $19 billion reopening auction

In commodities, oil erased an earlier fall with Brent crude futures now flat on the day and back around $104 a barrel, after Iran announced that its oil and gas assets in the South Pars oil field were under attack. Precious metals dip.  Based on a study of the past six supply-side oil shocks, “on average it takes around four to five months” for crude and stock markets to come to pre-shock levels, David Chao, a global markets strategist at Invesco said in a Bloomberg TV interview. The firm is “sticking with our outlook” of preferring US cyclical small cap stocks and emerging market equities, he added.

Today's US economic data slate includes February PPI (8:30 a.m. New York time), January factory orders and durable goods orders (10 a.m. New York time), January TIC flows (4 p.m. New York time), and of course the FOMC decision at 2pm.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%,
• DAX +0.7%,
• CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.18%
• VIX -0.7 points at 21.65
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1206.78,
• euro little changed at $1.1533
• WTI crude -1.9% at $94.37/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Donald Trump wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ease a growing global energy crisis, but won't achieve that easily without a ceasefire in the war on Iran. European and Asian partners are reluctant to send warships to help reopen the strait, questioning whether a handful of ships would make any difference against Iran's ability to threaten vessels. BBG
• Battered by Iranian strikes and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates and some fellow Persian Gulf states have come to view Iran’s theocracy as an existential enemy. They now want the regime they once courted to be neutered, if not dismantled, when the conflict ends—so the ordeal is never repeated. WSJ
• The Middle East war has turned container shipping into a “wild west”, with carriers adding thousands of dollars in charges and dumping containers at far-flung ports, according to removal companies and customers. FT
• South Korean stocks jumped after authorities moved to restrict publicly traded companies from listing certain subsidiaries, curbing a practice long blamed for diluting shareholder value. BBG
• Major Japanese companies, including Toyota, offered big pay hikes in annual wage talks on Wednesday, reflecting strong pay momentum for a fourth consecutive year, although uncertainty from the Middle East conflict clouds the outlook. RTRS
• The European Commission is set to delay the impact of a global banking reform as it seeks to stop EU lenders from being put at a disadvantage by US moves to cut capital requirements for big banks. According to two officials familiar with the plans, Brussels will after Easter adopt legislation to neutralize the short-term impact of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) — a key component of the Basel III framework governing market risk. FT
• The EU is planning to overhaul its merger rules to curb national powers to block corporate takeovers in a bid to help European companies build the scale to compete with US and Chinese rivals. The proposed reforms reflect growing frustration in Brussels that capitals intervened in a series of significant corporate deals, often to protect national champions at the expense of the single market. FT
• Microsoft is weighing legal action against Amazon and OpenAI over a $50bn deal that could breach its exclusive cloud partnership with the ChatGPT maker, setting up a clash between the Big Tech rivals. FT
• Bond traders are unwinding bets that drove markets to price out Fed rate cuts this year. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady for a second straight meeting today and Jerome Powell’s comments on the risks to the economy from the Iran conflict will be in the spotlight. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall Street and as oil prices retreated, while markets now await a flurry of upcoming central bank policy decisions, including from the FOMC later today. ASX 200 gained with the help of strength in tech, utilities and real estate, but with gains limited amid weakness in health care and the consumer sectors following the recent central bank rate hike, while money markets are currently pricing a coin flip for a third consecutive hike in May. Nikkei 225 climbed back above the 55,000 level amid several positive factors, such as mostly better-than-expected trade data, which showed a surprise surplus and with exports topping forecasts. US and Japan are also set to agree on the joint development of rare earths, copper, and lithium at a summit on Thursday, while they will jointly develop AI shipbuilding robots. Furthermore, participants mull over the first wave of corporate responses to the Shunto wage demands, and the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with weakness seen in auto stocks and China's oil majors, while reports that multiple Chinese companies were said to have received approval from authorities to purchase NVIDIA H200 AI chips failed to inspire the mainland.

Top Asian News

• South Korea's financial regulator said will expand the KRW 100tln market stabilisation programme if needed. To prepare specific plans to ban dual listing of parent companies and subsidiaries.

European Bourses are broadly higher with the IBEX 35 leading on bank strength, while the CAC 40 also gains. The SMI underperforms as Logitech declines following a downgrade at UBS. Softer oil prices, after the resumption of exports through Ceyhan port, provide a modest tailwind to equities. Sectors show a positive bias. Banks outperform amid reports the EU may delay stricter capital requirements, lifting names such as Banco Santander, Société Générale, and Intesa Sanpaolo. Food, Beverages & Tobacco lag after HelloFresh guides adj. EBITDA below expectations. Elsewhere, Heidelberg Materials gains on a double upgrade at Morgan Stanley, Unilever slips on reports it is exploring a food division separation, and Diploma surges after raising organic revenue growth guidance.

Top European News

• EU Inflation Rate YoY Final (Feb) Y/Y 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.7%, Low. 1.8%, High. 1.9%).
• EU Inflation Rate MoM Final (Feb) M/M 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -0.6%, Low. -0.6%, High. 0.7%).
• EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (Feb) Y/Y 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.2%).
• Swiss SECO Forecasts: Cuts 2026 GDP growth to 1.0% (prev. 1.1%), maintains 2027 GDP forecast at 1.7%; 2026 CPI raised to 0.4% (prev. 0.2%), 2027 CPI maintained at 0.5%.
• South African Inflation Rate YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.0% (Prev. 3.5%).

Trade/Tariffs

• Japanese PM Takaichi said it will be tough regarding her visit to meet US President Trump on Thursday, while she will do her best to protect Japan's interests.
• Japanese PM Takaichi is to meet US President Trump on March 19th, Nikkei reported.
• Japan-US summit joint statement is said to agree up to JPY 11tln as second investment batch, according to NHK

FX

• DXY is flat in a tight 99.46–99.71 range after two sessions of declines, tracking softer oil prices. Focus turns to the Federal Reserve decision, where rates are expected to be maintained, with markets not pricing cuts until Q4 2026 and Chair Powell likely to avoid firm guidance given geopolitical uncertainty.
• EUR and GBP trade muted against the dollar amid limited fresh catalysts. EUR/USD trades within 1.1518–1.1549, while GBP/USD sits in a 1.3341–1.3375 range as markets look ahead to the ECB and BoE tomorrow, both expected to signal a data-dependent stance.
• JPY is choppy ahead of the BoJ decision overnight, where no policy change is expected. USD/JPY briefly dips to 158.57 before stabilising near 159.00, with some late pressure as oil prices ease.
• Antipodeans are quiet with a slight upward bias. AUD/USD holds recent gains following the RBA decision, while broader macro drivers remain limited.

Fixed Income

• UST is firmer in contained trade, tracking the broader fixed income bid driven by softer energy and yield expectations. Futures trade in a 111-30+ to 112-07 range, with focus squarely on the Federal Reserve decision, where updated projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone will guide expectations on how the Fed assesses Middle East-driven inflation risks.
• Bund is stronger, with gains of up to 34 ticks and a high of 126.81 as energy-driven yield pressure eases. Upside levels are seen at 127.00, then 127.20–127.53, with a gap toward 128.00. Focus turns from final HICP (no reaction seen) and German supply to the FOMC as a signal for how the European Central Bank may position policy amid the energy shock.
• Gilt outperform, rising over 50 ticks to a 90.26 peak, continuing the recent trend of UK strength versus peers. Resistance sits at 90.85 (11 March high). Attention remains on the FOMC as a precursor to Thursday’s BoE decision, alongside domestic political noise after criticism of UK PM Starmer from former Deputy PM Rayner.
• Australia sold AUD 1bln 4.25% October 2036 bonds, b/c 4.14, avg. yield 4.9122%.

Commodities

• Crude futures are softer, but off APAC lows as markets digest geopolitical updates without fresh escalation. Iran confirms the death of security chief Ali Larijani, while officials rule out a ceasefire, maintaining elevated uncertainty. Elsewhere, Iraq and Kurdish authorities agree to resume exports via Ceyhan, adding some supply relief, while private inventory data shows a crude build and gasoline draw. WTI trades within USD 91.45–95.65/bbl and Brent within USD 100.34–103.67/bbl.
• Spot gold trades rangebound around the USD 5,000/oz level, balancing oil-driven inflation risks against persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Trades within a USD 4,977.21–5,016.20/oz range, with silver also contained.
• Base metals are softer, extending the recent pullback as a firmer dollar and rising inventories weigh. Copper trades in a narrow USD 12,642–12,803/t range, with positioning also lighter on the bullish side.
• Senior NATO military official pushes for extension of alliance's pipeline system towards the east to supply NATO troops in a conflict with Russia. Adds that the NATO pipeline network should be extended to Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and Romania.
• South Korea envoy said to receive 18mln barrels of crude oil from UAE and that UAE pledges to give number 1 priority to South Korea for crude supply.
• Indian Government official says they are to give 10% more commercial LPG to states if they help if the long-term shift from LPG to piped gas, adds that LPG situation is still of concern.
• India's government is in talks with Iranian authorities for safe passage of six India-bound vessels carrying LPG and two crude oil carriers, according to two people aware of the matter cited by Mint.
• Libya's Sharara oilfield is gradually shutting down following a pipeline explosion.

Geopolitics

• Several US officials described President Trump as the most bullish person in the White House on going to war with Iran, Axios reported. Three advisors to POTUS believe that Trump would want to end major operations before Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, the article noted that the leaders appear closer than ever.
• US President Trump reiterated that they are way ahead of schedule regarding Iran.
• Israel attempted to assassinate Iran's Intelligence Minister Khatib overnight, Jerusalem Post reported citing an Israeli official; still awaiting results of the target, however the initial assessment is that he has been eliminated.
• Iran's Foreign Minister said the new protocol [in the Strait of Hormuz] to ensure safe passage would be under "specific conditions" and based on Iranian and regional interests.
• Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran will target US forces wherever they assemble, including near urban areas, he understands neighbours' concerns and holds the US responsible for the conflict.
• Iranian Foreign Minister has ruled out a ceasefire.
• Iranian army spokesperson said armed forces will make use of more weapons that were not previously used in war, state TV reported.
• Iran targets Tel Aviv with missiles carrying cluster warheads in retaliation for the killing of security chief Larijani, while Iran's army vows decisive and regrettable revenge for Larijani killing.
• Australian PM Albanese said an Iranian projectile hit near an Australian airbase in the UAE, although no personnel were injured.
• Saudi Arabia is to host a meeting on Wednesday of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers in Riyadh on regional security according to the foreign ministry.
• USS Gerald R. Ford is to head to Crete for repairs after a large non-combat fire last week, while USS George H.W. Bush is to relieve USS Gerald R. Ford in the Middle East.
• Analysts warned that Iran is capable of sharply escalating its attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf, according to FT.
• US Secretary of State Rubio called New York Times report on Cuba fake news and denies the US is seeking to oust the Cuban president.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Feb PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 3%, prior 2.9%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 3.6%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan Factory Orders, est. 0.1%, prior -0.7%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0%, prior 0%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 2:00 pm: United States Mar 18 FOMC Rate Decision 
• 4:00 pm: United States Jan Total Net TIC Flows, prior 44.9b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Saying goodbye to Cape Town today and heading to Johannesburg for my first ever visit. I’ve been to Cape Town five times: three to watch England lose at cricket, and twice on business. The second trip, around 20 years ago, featured the only time I’ve ever fainted. I was standing up on a plane, passed out, cracked my head on a food trolley, and ended up heavily bandaged with an ambulance meeting both the plane and me on the runway. I thought that might ruin the holiday, but I underestimated just how bad England were going to be at cricket on that tour. That was worse. The last visit was two years ago, right in the middle of the wettest period Cape Town had seen in a generation. By comparison, this trip has been relatively calm and lovely. So far.

There is also a bit more calm in markets at the moment and a small hint that there is a decoupling from the price of oil as the last 24 hours have seen more positive risk markets and lower yields in spite of Brent crude (+3.20%) closing above $100/bbl for a fourth consecutive session, at $103.42/bbl. Optimism has been boosted a bit more this morning as oil is back down a couple of percent seemingly on an Iraq deal with Turkey to resume oil exports through their territory and thus not requiring the Strait of Hormuz. US and European equity futures are up half a percent and Asian stocks are mostly higher with the KOSPI back to its incredible Jan/Feb march and up +4.46% with the Nikkei +2.68%, both helped by tech stocks.

This follows yesterday's hopes growing that the Fed and other central banks meeting this week wouldn’t sound too hawkish in response to recent developments. We’ll have to see what the Fed say tonight, but in the meantime, the S&P 500 (+0.25%) built on Monday’s gains, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries (-1.8bps) and bunds (-4.6bps) also fell back. Indeed, the VIX index (-1.14pts) closed at its lowest in nearly two weeks, at 22.37pts. That's less than a point above the pre-Iran high for the year.

The broader relief rally was partly driven by more moderate moves in oil prices than we’d seen of late. In fact, it was the first day since March 5 that Brent traded within a range of less than 5%. We also saw comments from US officials that the war might soon be over soon, with Trump saying that they were “not ready to leave yet, but we will be leaving in the near future”. And separately, NEC Director Kevin Hassett said on CNBC that the expectation was still for a “four-to-six week operation”. However, there was no imminent sign of de-escalation with news of Iran striking energy infrastructure targets in the Gulf and that an Israeli strike had killed Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani. That backdrop left oil prices higher on the day, though Brent did fall back from a high of $104.98/bbl before the European open.

Meanwhile we’re still seeing barely any traffic getting through the Strait of Hormuz, and US allies have maintained their reluctance to get involved in reopening the Strait. For example, French President Macron said yesterday that “France will never take part in operations to open or free the Strait of Hormuz in the current context”. That reluctance from US allies was acknowledged by Trump, who said in a post yesterday that “we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance”. Clearly the risk is that after the conflict fades, the tension between Trump and his fellow NATO leaders increases again with uncertain consequences. That's a story for another day but it is a genuine concern.

Looking forward, we’ll start to hear more from central banks today about the likely response, as we kick off the latest round of monetary policy decisions. Indeed, this is the most bunched set of decisions in years, as in the space of 24 hours, we’ll get decisions from the Fed tonight, followed by each of the ECB, Bank of Japan and the Bank of England tomorrow. All of them are widely expected to hold rates, but there’s scope for plenty of headlines, as the Fed’s blackout period means we haven’t actually heard from the FOMC since the first week of the conflict, back when oil prices were still beneath $100/bbl and there were still wider hopes for a swift end to the conflict.

In terms of what to expect today, our US economists think the Fed’s communications will emphasise elevated uncertainty, with Chair Powell likely to avoid any strong signals about near-term policy. They also think the Summary of Economic Projections will be little changed, and will continue to signal one more rate cut for 2026. However, they do think that there’ll be upward revisions to headline and core PCE inflation for this year, so that’ll be one to keep an eye on. Indeed, core PCE was already at +3.1% in January, even before the recent uptick in gasoline prices because of the war. 

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, investors continued to expect one Fed rate cut this year, with the amount of rate cuts priced by December holding steady at 26bps (-0.4bps on the day). While 2yr yields (+0.4bps) were little changed at 3.68%, US Treasuries rallied further along the curve, with the 10yr yield (-1.8.bps) down to 4.18% and 30yr down -2.6bps to 4.84%. Interestingly, those moves came despite growing pessimism on the inflation side. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap rose another +14.7bps yesterday to 3.13%, the highest since October. That came as investors also priced in a longer period of higher oil prices, with 6-month Brent futures (+3.26%) rising to $86.12/bbl. So it was lower real rates rather than inflation expectations which drove Treasury yields lower, with the 10yr real yield (-4.4bps) seeing its biggest daily decline since the Iran strikes began.

Earlier in Europe there was a similar pattern, with markets pricing in a more dovish path for rates and lower yields, even as inflation swaps moved higher. So the amount of ECB hikes priced by December fell another -7.5bps to 33bps. And in turn, yields on 10yr bunds (-4.6bps), OATs (-6.1bps) and BTPs (-6.9bps) all moved lower. Similarly to the US, real rates declined, as the German 10yr real yield (-1.2bps) fell to its lowest level since last April, at just 0.51%. That came as data continued to disappoint, with the expectations component of the German ZEW survey slumping to just -0.5 in March (vs. 39.2 expected). That’s its lowest level since the Liberation Day turmoil last April, which just shows how the Middle East conflict is already affecting sentiment.

That backdrop saw equities put in a decent performance, as declining volatility and hopes for more dovish policy outweighed concerns about higher oil prices. So the major indices advanced on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (+0.25%) posting back-to-back gains for the first time since the strikes began. Once again, energy (+1.02%) led the gains, and that component of the S&P 500 hit another record high yesterday. But cyclical sectors more broadly did well, with consumer discretionary (+1.00%) and financials (+0.51%) also outperforming. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.67%) had its best day in the last week, with energy similarly leading the way.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s exports grew at a slower pace last month, as tariffs weighed on car shipments to the US and as demand in China slumped due to the Lunar New Year holidays. The value of overall exports rose +4.2% in February from a year earlier, after a big jump of +16.8% in the previous month albeit beating market expectations of a +1.9% rise. Meanwhile, imports rebounded +10.2%, a little below the consensus estimate of +11.3%, as the trade balance swung to a surplus of ¥57.3 billion against an anticipated deficit of -¥460.0 billion. Yields on the 10yr JGBs are -4.7bps lower trading at 2.22% as I type, mirroring the global move of the last 24 hours.

Looking at the day ahead, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. In addition, the Bank of Canada will also announce their decision. Otherwise, US data releases include PPI for February, and factory orders for January.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 08:40

Rate-Cut Odds Tumble As US Producer Prices Surged In February - Hottest In Over A Year

After a hotter than expected print in January, US Producer Prices were expected to continue to rise (but only modestly) in February data released today. The consensus direction was right but the scale was way off as headline PPI accelerated 0.7% MoM (vs +0.3% exp and +0.5% prior) - the biggest monthly jump since July 2025.

That lifted producer prices higher by 3.4% YoY (notably hitter than the 3.0% expected and up from the 2.9% prior). That is the hottest PPI since January 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

More than half of the February rise in prices for final demand can be attributed to a 0.5-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods increased 1.1 percent.

PPI rose 0.7% in February after rising 0.5% in January. PPI rose 3.4% for the 12 months ended in February, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 3.4% in February 2025. More than half of the February rise in prices for PPI final demand can be attributed to a 0.5-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods increased 1.1 percent.

Details:

Final demand services: The index for final demand services rose 0.5 percent in February, the third straight advance. Nearly three-fourths of the February broad-based increase can be traced to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which moved up 0.6 percent. The indexes for final demand trade services and for final demand transportation and warehousing services also rose, 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

• Product detail: About 20% of the February advance in the index for final demand services is attributable to a 5.7-percent jump in prices for traveler accommodation services. The indexes for food and alcohol wholesaling; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; fuels and lubricants retailing; long-distance motor carrying; and inpatient care also rose. In contrast, margins for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing fell 4.5 percent. The indexes for gaming receipts (partial) and for airline passenger services also decreased.

Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods increased 1.1 percent in February, the largest rise since moving up 1.6 percent in August 2023. Forty percent of the February broad-based advance can be traced to the index for final demand foods, which jumped 2.4 percent. Prices for final demand energy and for final demand goods less foods and energy also increased, 2.3 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

• Product detail: Over 20% of the February rise in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 48.9-percent jump in prices for fresh and dry vegetables. The indexes for diesel fuel, chicken eggs, gasoline, jet fuel, and tobacco products also increased. Conversely, prices for jewelry and jewelry products fell 4.0 percent. The indexes for home heating oil and for soft drinks also declined.

Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) also soared (+0.5% MoM) pushing core prices up by 3.9% YoY - the highest since Jan 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

...and if oil prices remain elevated, PPI (and CPI) are about to become a whole lot hotter...

And the pipeline for producer price inflation is higher...

Margin pressures remain as input prices rise faster than output prices...

The bottom line is that this will likely lead to a hotter than expected Core PCE print - something The Fed watches closely - and rate-cut odds are falling on the news...

...with no rate action at all priced in for today.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 08:40

Daily Multivitamin Linked To Slower Biological Aging In New Clinical Trial

Authored by Rachel Ann T. Melegrito via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Most people who take a daily multivitamin couldn’t tell you exactly why - but their bodies might know.

A new clinical trial suggests there may be something measurable behind the routine: Older adults who took a daily multivitamin for two years showed slightly slower biological aging—equivalent to about four months—particularly among those whose biological age appeared older than their chronological age at the start.

Daily Vitamin, Younger DNA?

Biological aging refers to how well the body’s systems function relative to a person’s chronological age. Scientists can estimate biological age by reading chemical tags on DNA that change in predictable patterns as we get older—a measure known as an epigenetic clock.

The study, published in Nature Medicine, examined whether daily multivitamins, containing a broad mix of essential vitamins and minerals, or cocoa extract supplements could influence biological aging.

Researchers analyzed data from 958 randomly selected healthy older adults with a mean age of 70 who participated in the COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS), a large, ongoing randomized clinical trial in the United States designed to test the health effects of both multivitamins and cocoa flavanol supplements in older adults.

Participants were randomly assigned to one of four groups: multivitamins plus cocoa extract, multivitamins plus placebo cocoa extract, placebo multivitamins plus cocoa extract, or both placebos.

Researchers analyzed blood samples taken at the start of the study and again at one and two years, tracking changes across five epigenetic clocks, two of which are linked to mortality risk.

Compared with participants taking a placebo, those taking multivitamins showed slower aging in two epigenetic clocks linked to mortality risk. The effect translated to about four months less biological aging over two years. The other three also showed trends toward slower aging but did not reach statistical significance.

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Previous analyses from the COSMOS trial have also linked multivitamin use to other health benefits among older adults, including slowed age-related memory decline, reduced risks of certain cancers, and eye diseases—suggesting the effects observed here may be part of a broader pattern.

“We have uncovered a key mechanism that may underlie the clinical findings of multivitamins for cognition, cancer, and cataracts,” Howard Sesso, associate director of the Division of Preventive Medicine in the Massachusetts General Hospital Department of Medicine and lead author of the study, told The Epoch Times. The results are encouraging, he said, noting that the findings emerged from a randomized clinical trial, which is a more rigorous standard of evidence than observational research.

Why Multi-Vitamins Might Work

Researchers do not yet know exactly why multivitamins appear to influence biological aging markers. However, the study authors suggest one possible explanation: Multivitamins may simply be correcting subtle nutrient insufficiencies that quietly undermine cellular processes involved in aging, including inflammation, oxidative stress, and DNA repair.

Jordan Glenn, head of science at SuppCo, a supplement-tracking app that helps users manage their daily vitamin and supplement intake, added that even modest improvements in biochemical pathways across multiple systems can translate into small shifts in biological aging markers.

Micronutrient deficiencies are relatively common in older adults, with many falling short of recommended levels of vitamins B12, D, and magnesium.

“The combination of vitamins, minerals, and bioactives in the multivitamin tested in the COSMOS trial may be greater than the sum of its individual parts,” Sesso said, suggesting that the nutrients may act together in complementary ways, “perhaps reflecting the importance of a healthy and diversified dietary pattern.” Multivitamins are among the most widely used dietary supplements in the United States and are often taken to help fill these nutritional gaps.

What the Results Mean–and What They Don’t

The COSMOS trial result was critically important as a validation that epigenetic clocks were modifiable and responsive to interventions, Daniel Belsky, an associate professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, who co-wrote an accompanying commentary on the study, said. However, he urged caution about what that actually means.

“Epigenetic clocks are well validated as predictors of health span and lifespan in observational studies,“ he told The Epoch Times. ”But we have very little evidence that change in the clocks leads to meaningful differences in health span.”

The effect size is also modest—about one-fifth the size typically considered a “small” effect in scientific studies, and about five times smaller than the effect of calorie restriction seen in the CALERIE trial, a landmark study that tested whether eating significantly less could extend healthy lifespan. That comparison puts the multivitamin finding in perspective: real, but not dramatic.

Still, both researchers noted that the cost-benefit calculation here is unusual. A daily multivitamin is cheap, safe, and asks almost nothing of the person taking it—a very different proposition from sustained calorie restriction. “On a population level, it would be much easier to take a simple, cheap, safe multivitamin supplement,” Sesso said.

Participants whose biological age appeared older than their chronological age at the start of the trial showed the greatest benefit. However, researchers said that some of the benefits may reflect statistical factors rather than a genuine biological response.

Epigenetic clocks are actually the right way to measure something like multivitamin supplementation, Belsky said. “Vitamin supplementation isn’t designed to prevent a specific disease—it’s intended to broadly support the function and resilience of the whole organism.”

“For those taking a daily multivitamin, there is no reason to stop,” Sesso said, adding that whether someone should take one is a decision best discussed with a health care provider in the context of a healthy diet, good lifestyle habits, and appropriate health screenings.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 08:30

Why Is Wyoming Stashing Gold Inside This Old Newspaper Building?

It's no secret that despite President Donald Trump's occasional tough talk about slashing the United States' monstrous $38.9 trillion debt bomb, his administration has zero real political will to slam the brakes on Washington's out-of-control spending spree.

The inaction has Wyoming Republicans gearing up for the inevitable economic trainwreck when the day comes that America can no longer just print its way out of paying the interest on that colossal tab.

In January, Wyoming lawmakers shelled out $10 million to snap up 2,312 troy ounces of gold bars, now worth a cool $11.6 million as the yellow metal keeps soaring.

The move came after the legislature passed the "Wyoming Gold Act," forcing the state's investment portfolio to load up on precious metals as a hedge against economic chaos, including skyrocketing federal debt, raging inflation, a weakening dollar, and even doomsday scenarios.

Wyoming state Sen. Bob Ide (R), the bill's lead sponsor, isn't mincing words.

“I can’t put a timeline on it, but there’s gonna be a sovereign-debt crisis,” Ide said. “There’s no will to rein in spending.”

The gold sits locked in a high-security vault run by private firm Wyoming Reserve, inside a beige, single-story building that once housed the Casper Star-Tribune.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

The vault is structured like “an onion layer,” moored to bedrock and closely guarded, according to company Chief Executive Josh Phair. He testified in support of the gold-buying bill, which he said would help the state become a precious-metals hub for the country.

While state lawmakers mused about the logistics of transporting precious metals to Wyoming via aircraft and armored vehicle, the state ultimately bought gold from a bank that already had a stockpile in the Reserve, according to Phair. The storage fees there began at $7,021 a year when the state purchased the gold, but the cost fluctuates daily depending on the gold’s value, according to the state treasurer’s office.

However, not everyone is cheering the state's accumulation of gold.

Some big-name Wyoming Republicans, including Gov. Mark Gordon (R), have claimed the gold grab as a real risk to the state's financial security.

On the other hand...

As we noted on Friday, Goldman's Robert Quinn suggests that gold may not be the safest haven - as demand underwhelmed at the onset of the Iran war. 

During February 24th - March 3th, Managed Money purchased just +$470mm of Gold futures. New longs (+$830mm) were partially offset by shorts (-$360mm). 

Premium subscribers can read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 08:25

My mid-week morning train Malvern reads:

• The stock market looks wild under the surface: The S&P 500 appears relatively calm on the surface this year, but dig a little deeper and you’ll find some wild swings. Dispersion hiding beneath calm headline indices — sector rotations, factor volatility, and the growing divergence between what the S&P shows and what individual stocks are doing. Investors have retreated from the Big Tech names that carried the market in recent years, putting downward pressure on stocks. By the numbers: The S&P 500 has fallen just 3% for the year, but that masks some big-time. (Axios)

• The Biggest Active Stock Funds Picked the Right Stocks. They Still Lagged: A hypothetical portfolio of the largest active US stock funds’ collective holdings would have beaten the funds themselves. (Morningstar)

• Who ate all the Chinese stock market returns? Long-term nominal GDP is the stuff earnings are made of. And emerging-market economies grow faster than developed ones. Put these two facts together and the case for long-term allocations to EM equities has looked compelling. But no matter how compelling, it hasn’t really worked for a long time. And it has singularly failed to work for investors in Chinese stocks over the past 25 years. While the biggest global economic story of the last three decades has been the rise and rise of China, Chinese stock price performance has been . . . well, a bit rubbish. China got rich. Less so equity punters. The structural reasons why China’s economic growth has so consistently failed to translate into equity market gains for foreign investors. (Financial Times)

• Inside a $42 Billion Private-Credit Black Box: More Black Boxes: Cliffwater fund’s opacity helps explain why it is facing redemptions. A deep look at how private credit vehicles are layering complexity on top of complexity — and what that opacity means for investors who can’t see what they own. (Wall Street Journal)

• When the Best Retirement Is No Retirement at All: The 60-plus crowd is hard at work, and it’s not (just) about the money.The emerging research and personal accounts behind why staying engaged in meaningful work — on your own terms — often produces better outcomes than full retirement. (Businessweek)

• Congress Weighs Axing FINRA. But Is SEC Ready to Pick Up the Slack?: The case for eliminating the broker-dealer self-regulator — and the serious capacity questions about whether the SEC could absorb the workload. (The Daily Upside)

• America’s Diminished Place In The World: Techdirt’s Mike Masnick on how failure to check executive overreach earlier created the conditions for the current collapse of American standing abroad. (TechDirt) see also • The US Seems to Be Deliberately Weakening its Global Position: A careful argument that the pattern of damage to alliances, institutions, and credibility isn’t incompetence — it looks intentional. (Phillip’s Newsletter)

• Florida Is Trying to Ignore Measles Until It Can’t: Florida ranks third in measles cases and the state’s response has been conspicuous silence—a public health strategy best described as “pretend it isn’t happening.” Oh, and the state is in the midst of an outbreak. (The Atlantic)

• Is MAGA in its cringe era? Trump 2.0 was supposed to be younger and cooler than what came before. The vibes have shifted. Signs that the cultural coalition holding Trumpism together may be fracturing — the aesthetic and attitudinal shifts that signal a movement losing its grip. (Washington Post)

• Ticketmaster’s Grip on Live Concerts Is Finally Starting to Break: Live Nation’s settlement with the Justice Department is a big step toward accountability—and cheaper ticket prices. (Slate)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

 

Where rents are falling (or rising) most

Source: Axios

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Berlin Accused Of Prioritizing Migrants Over Merit In Hiring Judges & Prosecutors

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A diversity hiring policy affecting the recruitment of judges and public prosecutors in Berlin has come under renewed scrutiny after the city’s justice senator warned that the system may conflict with Germany’s constitutional requirement that public offices be filled strictly on merit.

The policy, introduced in 2021 under then justice senator Dirk Behrendt of the Green Party, stems from amendments to the Law to Promote Participation in a Migration Society, known as the PartMigG. The legislation was adopted by Berlin’s House of Representatives with support from the then-governing coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens, and the Left.

Under the law, recruitment procedures must ensure that applicants with a migration background are invited to interviews in numbers reflecting their share of the population. In Berlin, around 40 percent of residents fall into that category, defined by the Federal Statistical Office as individuals who themselves, or at least one parent, were not born with German citizenship.

In practice, the rule means that some interviewees experience positive discrimination and their migration background is a criterion for their selection, regardless of whether other applicants may have stronger academic credentials.

According to Bild, the system has been implemented in recent years by Berlin’s chief public prosecutor, Margarete Koppers, also associated with the Greens.

The newspaper noted that internal warnings were first raised when the measure was initially drafted.

Officials cautioned that introducing a quota linked to migration background during the selection process could violate Article 33(2) of Germany’s Basic Law, which states that access to public office must be determined by “suitability, competence, and performance.”

Berlin’s current justice senator, Felor Badenberg of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has now drawn attention to the issue and questioned whether the rule is compatible with constitutional principles.

Badenberg said she supports efforts to improve integration and participation in public institutions, noting that she herself has a migration background, with parents who came from Iran. However, she emphasized that the constitution must remain the guiding standard.

“Access to public office must be based on suitability, competence, and performance,” she said, describing the Basic Law as her “compass.”

Critics say the policy reflects a diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) approach that prioritizes demographic representation over merit, though there is no suggestion that the law will be amended or challenged in the near future.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 05:00

'Europeans Committing Demographic Suicide': EU Politicians Gather To Discuss Immigration Crisis

Via Remix News,

Europeans are committing demographic suicide and the tools used to managed migration are failing at every level, said Rodrigo Ballester, the head of the Center for European Studies at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium. He made his remark at a recent Ordo Iuris Institute event in Warsaw, Poland, which saw European politicians, policymakers, and other important players gather to discuss a groundbreaking paper: “Taking Back Control from Brussels. The Renationalization of the EU Migration and Asylum Policies.”

“As Europeans, we are committing demographic suicide. We are a continent of old rich people, facing a continent of young, hungry, and determined people — ambitious people. We’re still trying to manage migration with hopelessly outdated tools, using conventions from a century ago. They have completely lost their meaning today. In practice, I’m talking about the Geneva Convention. This is the ‘sacred cow’ we should get rid of,” Ballester emphasized.

The “Taking Back Control” paper, which was recently covered by Remix News, outlines 18 ways Europe can regain control of immigration policy. Ballester emphasized that these policies need to be implemented and quickly.

Many of the speakers discussed various aspects of Europe’s ongoing immigration crisis, including the sharply differing trajectories of pro-immigration countries such as Poland versus Germany.

Polish Prof. Zdzisław Krasnodębski, a former MEP, spoke to the large audience who had gathered, where he compared the impact of immigration on the Polish city of Warsaw to the German city of Bremen where he lived and worked for a long time.

"How did it happen that such a process, which is suicidal, was supported by societies for years? I can tell you that I know two such cities well. One was poor and large, and people were moving away from it. It was Warsaw. Warsaw was also White, if I may use that term. The other city (Bremen) was well-off, middle-class, also White. In 2025, one is almost a ruin. It used to be a prosperous, medium-sized town. Meanwhile, this big, great city we’re in right now has become one of the wealthiest cities in Europe,” he pointed out.

Krasnodębski underlined the trajectory of Warsaw, which is economically booming while still maintaining a strong White majority and rejecting the diversity seen in many other Western cities. Meanwhile, Bremen has been labeled the “most dangerous city in Germany,” where an incredible 73 percent of crime suspects are non-German. The situation has deteriorated so greatly in Bremen that even left-wing politicians in the city have admitted that “massive immigration” has sparked a housing and crime crisis.

However, other speakers warned that not all is well in Poland, either.

Jacek Saryusz-Wolski—a former Polish Minister for European Affairs and Member of the European Parliament, currently President Nawrocki’s main advisor for European affairs — took the floor.

“Looking at the statistics, you can see that in most of Western Europe, immigrant communities make up a percentage in the teens, or even over 20 percent, of the population. It’s not like that here (in Poland) yet, but we too face the risk of an open-borders policy starting here. We will then, after a certain delay, share the same fate,” noted Saryusz-Wolski.

Saryusz-Wolski further warned that the EU is taking more and more power away from nation-states in order to dictate an open borders policy.

“Migration policy is not among the European Union’s exclusive or shared competencies. This is only an area, the third category of cooperation, within which the Union institutions may assist, encourage, and advise the member states, but they cannot legislate. And that is the origin of this great usurpation,” the politician emphasized.

Another speaker, Róbert Gönczi, an analyst at the Hungarian Institute for Migration Research and at Mathias Corvinus Collegium, warned that policies in other countries, such as Spain, which is working to legalize hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants.

“Today we are witnessing a huge surge in migration that Europe is grappling with, and let’s not forget that we are all part of the European Union; it affects us all, and we all bear the consequences,” the analyst emphasized.

He also drew attention to the problem of numerous migrants not being registered in European countries’ systems.

“There are millions of people we can’t track down. We don’t know where they are, we don’t know what they’re doing, we don’t know where they came from, and we don’t know what to do about it. This places a very significant burden on the European system, on the European Union, and it is one of the reasons why we find ourselves in a serious economic crisis,” he noted.

Deputy Speaker of the Sejm, Krzysztof Bosak, emphasized that in addition to illegal immigration, mass legal immigration is also a problem.

“The discussion about legal immigration — its scale, rules, and criteria — is no less important, if not more important, because the transformation of Western Europe was largely the result of large-scale legal immigration, and only as a result — or in parallel — did illegal immigration begin to arrive,” he said.

The politician also noted that the European Union treats different countries unequally when it comes to assessing their migration policies. He pointed out that this area has already been partially “renationalized,” but he warned against a possible hardening of the stance toward countries that continue to firmly protect their borders.

“Please note that very few of our Border Guard’s decisions — whether during the Law and Justice government or now under the Civic Platform-led government — have been seriously challenged by any EU bodies. However, I’m not saying that this won’t happen at any moment now. It can happen. It depends solely on where the ‘Eye of Sauron’ from Brussels, from Luxembourg, turns its gaze, and which regulations, which practices it chooses to scrutinize. Such arbitrariness, it seems to me, has been taking place in the European Union for years with regard to the practice of so-called pushbacks — that is, what I call sending illegal migrants back to the proper side of the border,” said Bosak.

“Taking Back Control from Brussels. The Renationalization of the EU Migration and Asylum Policies” report discusses the possibility for European Union member states to regain greater control over migration and asylum policy without the need to adopt new EU treaties. The authors show that the key competencies concerning border protection, security, and deciding on the admission of foreigners still belong to nation-states, and that any limits on them result more from legal interpretation than from actual legal provisions.

The publication critically assesses the EU migration pact, indicating that it may facilitate mass migration and the forced relocation of migrants. The report also proposes specific legal measures that would enable EU countries to strengthen their own migration policy under existing European and international law.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 03:30

Russia Touts Capture Of A Dozen Ukrainian Settlements In Opening Weeks Of March

The Russia-Ukraine war, now at the start of its fifth year, has largely fallen from daily global headlines, given the world's attention - and markets - seem wholly focused on the fast-moving events of the Iran war, and the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz.

While many pundits are essentially 'looking the other way' - Russia continues gobbling up territory, and this week has announced its forces captured 12 settlements in just the first half of March. This comes as its offensives intensify in the east and south.

AFP/Getty Images

Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov touted the advances, declaring the push is broad-based and accelerating in all directions.

"The offensive is being conducted in all directions," he has freshly announced, adding that "12 settlements have been liberated" in just two weeks.

This includes troops now "actively moving towards Sloviansk" - which remains one of the most heavily fortified Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk, while also claiming 60% control of Kostiantynivka amid ongoing urban combat.

There are running "street battles" in Kostiantynivka Gerasimov described of the assault which has reportedly pushed deeper into the city. Russia says it's also establishing buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Sumy borders.

The Ukrainian military and government leaders are meanwhile pushing back against this. President Volodymyr Zelensky himself is seeking to contradict the Russian narrative of consistent battlefield gains.

"Ukraine's defense forces have disrupted Russia's strategic offensive operation," Zelensky said Monday. "Although attacks are constant… their intensity and scale are not what Russia had planned."

The dueling claims highlight a familiar pattern of the last several years of grinding war in the east - one of Moscow touting steady territorial gains, while Kiev insists its troops blunting and reversing the push, even as the front line remains fluid but on the whole somewhat stalemated.

NEW: Continued Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely constraining Russian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction and may soon threaten Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction. Ukrainian counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are… pic.twitter.com/bnNkNRpZJT

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 17, 2026

But both sides have settled in for a war of attrition, and while neither side publishes freshly updated casualty figures, the lives lost from the tragic war is widely believed to be in the hundreds of thousands.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 02:45

From Economic Engine To Military Machine: Berlin's Quiet Pivot To War Economy A Challenge To EU

Authored by Mateusz Morawiecki

A year after Friedrich Merz's narrow victory and the formation of a new grand coalition between the CDU-CSU and the SPD in May 2025, Nicolas Baverez writes about the existential crisis Germany is experiencing. A crisis on several levels.

Firstly, Germany is experiencing a demographic crisis, with its population expected to decline by 100,000 people by 2025. Secondly, the economic crisis, following successive recessions in 2023 and 2024 and very weak growth of 0.2 percent in 2025. Thirdly, the social crisis, with the end of full employment and rising unemployment (6.5 per cent of the economically active population), resulting from increasing layoffs (52,000 jobs lost in the automotive industry and 150,000 in metallurgy and electronics in 2025). And finally, fourthly, the strategic crisis resulting from the situation in which Germany finds itself trapped between Donald Trump's illiberal America - which is no longer a protector but a predator - the military threat from Russia and the economic domination and unfair competition of China.

And one answer from Friedrich Merz: Germany first and the militarization of Germany. According to Nicolas Baverez, Friedrich Merz found the answer to all his country's problems in the militarization of Germany. To this end, he brought about a constitutional revision that allowed for the abolition of the debt brake limiting new federal loans and the creation of a special investment fund worth €500 billion.

via Reuters

Germany's militarization entails converting part of its industrial capacity, particularly its automotive plants, into arms production. Spectacular expansion has been emphasized, as evidenced by the meteoric success of Rheinmetall, whose order book is approaching €55 billion. By 2025, Germany will become the world's fourth-largest arms exporter, overtaking China (5.6 percent).

"It is regrettable that Germany is carrying out the rescue of its industry and its own armaments, ignoring and even overwhelming its partners," concludes Nicolas Baverez. The columnist notes that Friedrich Merz's goal is to strengthen Germany's dominance over the European Union - its vast market and its currency - through control of the European Commission and the European Parliament. The goal is to redirect German industrial exports toward Europe, but also toward the dynamic poles of the global economy: China and the United States, ASEAN, Australia and Korea, India, and Latin America.

The Germans only care about their own particular interests. Nicolas Baverez isn't afraid to make a very strong claim, one that hasn't appeared in mainstream French journalism until now. He writes that Germany is subordinating the European Union to its own goals (taking advantage of the controlling role it has held over the EU since Brexit).

Another thesis of Nicolas Baverez, which has not been heard in the French media so far, is that Germany is responsible, and it is primarily responsible, for most of the strategic mistakes that have weakened Europe since the beginning of the 21st century: from the strong euro, through the deflationary response to the crash of 2008, the unilateral disarmament of the continent after 1989, the dismantling of the nuclear industry and distortions of energy policy, the methodical destruction of the car industry after the disclosure of Volkswagen's fraudulent practices, to the unconditional opening of borders to immigration.

Such sharp "anti-German" theses have never been seen before in the most serious French press title, i.e. "Le Figaro", at most in the right-wing "Journal du Dimanche", where recently Philippe de Villiers came out with a hard and very sharp thesis: "Berlin is imposing its position on France, pushing it to the margins."

Germans are freed from any guilt for World War II: It must come as a shock to anyone following mainstream French journalism that Nicolas Baverez's piece in Le Figaro includes another sentence that has never before been used in French journalism. Until now, it has been careful not to offend its German neighbor. Now, however, Nicolas Baverez writes bluntly:

"Germany is reinventing itself today, with a sovereignty without borders, freed from all guilt and rooted in the memory of World War II. The return to a language and strategic stance serves a national ambition without complexes, which does not hesitate to directly clash with its partners. This is particularly true of France, whose economic ruin, financial insolvency, and the complete disgrace of its leaders are being exploited by Berlin to undermine its last remaining strengths in nuclear energy, defense, aviation, and the space sector."

So Germany will once again build itself on the ambition, militarization, and weakness of "declining France." And there is no doubt that this process overlaps with the changes possible both in Germany (here the shorthand for these changes is AfD) and in France (here the slogan is Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's National Rally ).

The return of German power also worries former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who writes in an article for "Wszystko co Słońca": "If Germany actually allocates 5% of its GDP to armaments, it will not only be the greatest effort since the Cold War, but also a turning point for the balance of power in Europe."

"Something new is beginning before our eyes: Germany's industrial awakening, and with it—even more importantly - a military awakening. Berlin is emerging from decades of military minimalism and preparing to become a real power. This time, these are not symbolic gestures or image-boosting tactics - but a systemic change that must be monitored closely. And understood before it's too late again."

If Germany truly devotes 5% of its GDP to armaments, it will not only be the greatest effort since the Cold War, but also a turning point for the balance of power in Europe. And the return of German military power will no longer be a hypothesis—it will be a matter of time. And it is precisely this possibility that Germany is consistently preparing for—step by step, lifting budget constraints, mobilising special funds, and transforming state structures into a wartime economic mobilization mode...

There is no doubt that Germany is striving to build a world-class army, one of the greatest forces on the Old Continent. The sheer scale of the funds it intends to allocate to broadly defined defense expansion suggests that we're talking about a decade rather than decades. Or, if the federal government makes the right decisions, even sooner. Berlin is clearly articulating its desire to expand its role in  NATO structures  and to take responsibility for  European security , especially Mitteleuropa. If Germany maintains this chosen course, it could fundamentally alter the geopolitical security puzzle in Europe .

From the German perspective, two key aspects are worth noting: ensuring financing for armed forces modernization through stable economic growth and the ambition to build a common European defense system, including the creation of a European army. The foundation of both goals is a strong arms industry - one of the most powerful in Europe.

Rheinmetall, known for its production of Leopard 2 tanks, ammunition, and air defense systems, remains the leader in this sector. The company is rapidly increasing its production capacity – in 2025, it will invest €600 million to produce 350,000  artillery shells  annually. In 2024, it achieved record profits and an order book worth €55 billion. It's worth noting that Rheinmetall has just entered into cooperation with the American Anduril – a symbol of a new arms paradigm based on AI and automation – which, somewhat contrary to Münchau's thesis, demonstrates that Germany not only maintains its ambitions but is attempting to leapfrog into the technological vanguard. Meanwhile, companies like Anduril and Palantir remain virtually nonexistent on the map of decision-makers in Warsaw.

In addition to Rheinmetall, other significant companies operate: TKMS (warships), Hensoldt (battlefield radars and sensors), which is closely monitoring the changes on the battlefield in Ukraine, and Diehl Defence (air defense systems and precision weapons). The scale of public investment translates into tangible benefits – as shown, every €1 billion spent translates into a €1.23 billion increase in production, and the sector already employs nearly 400,000 people. German arms exports reached a record €13.2 billion in 2024.

History teaches us that industrial and military potential can be just as easily used as a tool of defense as it is a means of pressure - internal or external. The German arms industry, recently rebuilt on such a grand scale, is not developing in a vacuum. On the contrary, it is maturing in an atmosphere of political turmoil and growing support for parties challenging the post-war consensus. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), increasingly strong in the east of the country and leading in polls in some federal states, is openly questioning the pillars of Berlin's current policy – ​​both towards Russia, the EU,  NATO, and the United States.

Read the full story here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 02:00

Time To Confront Islamic Terrorism

Authored by Victor Joecks via The Epoch Times,

Importing people who hate America didn’t end well.

See if you can spot any similarities in these four events.

During the weekend, President Donald Trump attacked Iran, Ndiaga Diagne opened fire at a bar in Austin. He wore a “Property of Allah” sweatshirt on top of an Iranian flag shirt.

He killed three people and injured more than a dozen before police shot him dead.

Diagne was a citizen of Senegal. He entered the United States in 2000 on a tourist visa and became a naturalized citizen in 2013.

On Saturday, March 7, around 20 people protested Islam outside of Gracie Mansion, the home of NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Around 125 people attended a counterprotest. Emir Balat, 18, then threw a bomb. Video suggests Balat screamed, “Allahu Akbar.” Video shows Balat grabbing a second bomb from Ibrahim Kayumi. Police saved the day, heroically subduing both men. Fortunately, neither explosive device detonated.

Balat later told police, “This isn’t a religion that just stands when people talk about the blessed name of the prophet .... We take action!” according to the Department of Justice. Balat also wrote that he pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.

Kayumi said he was connected to ISIS, watched ISIS propaganda, and that ISIS inspired his actions.

Balat’s parents are naturalized citizens from Turkey. Kayumi’s parents are naturalized citizens from Afghanistan.

On Thursday, Mohamed Bailor Jalloh shouted “Allahu Akbar” before opening fire in an ROTC class at Old Dominion University. Jalloh killed Lt. Col. Brandon Shah, the retired military officer leading the class and injured two others before at least one brave student killed him.

Jalloh was a naturalized U.S. citizen who came from Sierra Leone. He had previously been convicted of supporting ISIS.

Also on Thursday, Ayman Ghazali rammed a truck filled with explosives into a Jewish synagogue in West Bloomfield, Michigan. There were around 140 children plus staff at its early childhood center at the time. The man left his vehicle with a rifle. He exchanged gunfire with armed security who shot and killed him. The FBI believes the man specifically targeted the Jewish community.

Ghazali came from Lebanon and legally entered the United States in 2011. He became a naturalized citizen in 2016.

There are three obvious takeaways here.

First, guns aren’t an inherent problem.

It’s a problem when bad guys have guns and a lifesaver when good guys have guns.

Next, America’s immigration system is broken.

The melting pot has boiled over. All cultures aren’t created equal and some simply aren’t compatible with American values. When “naturalized” citizens murder Americans, it shows the naturalization process didn’t work. Congressional Republicans should pass a bill making it easier to denaturalize and deport those with terrorist sympathies.

Finally, Muslim terrorism is a systemic problem—and one the left doesn’t want to talk about.

The left has no problem using isolated incidents as evidence of a widespread threat from white supremacy. But after the NYC bomb attack, inverse journalism made it sound like Mamdani was the intended target.

Willful blindness doesn’t end well. Look at the child rape scandal in the UK. Officials let abuse continue for years rather than risk being called racists for exposing that the perpetrators were largely Pakistani Muslims.

In a 2016 post on Twitter, now X, the late comedian Norm Macdonald perfectly skewered this mindset.

“What terrifies me is if ISIS were to detonate a nuclear device and kill 50 million Americans. Imagine the backlash against peaceful Muslims?” he wrote.

Islamophobia is a weapon that leftists wield to keep people from discussing and fixing an obvious problem. Many Muslims want to destroy the West and kill Americans. Ignoring that reality has led to deadly consequences.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 23:40

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.