New Signals Point To Another Possible Migrant Invasion Against Ceuta

The scenes from the Ceuta invasion were deeply alarming, as 60,000 predominantly military-aged men, many carrying no supplies, crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave. The invasion set off alarm bells across the West, reinforcing concerns that uncontrolled mass migration poses a major national security risk.

According to The Sun, there are new concerns that a second invasion of Ceuta could be "just days" away, as the outlet cites online posts warning it may be their [migrants] "last chance" to enter Europe.

Just kidding, this is the actual footage … pic.twitter.com/jYRpSWM24e

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 31, 2026

The outlet continued:

Fears are also mounting convicted terrorists were among the tens of thousands of people who stormed the Spanish enclave last week, reports say.

. . .

But reports say the peninsula could see scenes of mayhem play out on the streets yet again, as plans are being made for another mass border crossing on August 15.

On social media, posts appear to be plotting another storming of the shores of Ceuta, with one message reading: "Everything will be seen that day."

Another appears to call for the creation of a WhatsApp group, saying: "Our appointment is on 15/08/2026."

The invasion prompted Italy to suspend Schengen arrangements with Spain and to secure its borders, while 22 EU leaders demanded "immediate action" to address the national security threat. Denmark's Mette Frederiksen, Italy's Giorgia Meloni, Germany's Friedrich Merz, and other European leaders warned:

"We cannot allow uncontrolled mass crossings, the instrumentalization of migration or other hybrid threats to create the perception that illegal entry into the European Union is possible."

Reports that emerged in recent days show that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's (unhinged socialist) claim that the migrants had been expelled from Ceuta may not have reflected the situation on the ground. Read the full report.

Years of open-border policies under Spain's socialist government may now be approaching a political breaking point. The invasion of military-aged men was so visible to the world in real time on X, making it increasingly difficult for lefty corporate media to reconstruct the narrative and gaslight the public into believing this was merely a humanitarian migration event. The images instead reinforced views of a coordinated border invasion and undercut the left-wing narrative framing such arrivals solely as poor migrants searching for milk and bread.

Related:

• Spain's Immigration Crisis: Ceuta & The Collapse Of Sánchez's Pro-Migration Experiment

We noted last week:

• Spain's Border Invasion Is An Optics Disaster For Open-Border Democrats

Hopefully, common sense can return to the West: secure borders. And, really, hold those accountable for nation-killing open border policies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 12:20

Undrain The Swamp: JOLTS Miss Despite Shocking Surge In Government Job Openings To Biden Admin Levels

After five straight months of JOLTS beats, including two blowout prints for April and May and zero misses since 2025...

... it was inevitable that the BLS would eventually pot out a disappointment, if only to preserve the myth of "accurate data." 

That's what happened today when in the latest JOLTS report, the US dept of labor reported that in June the US had 7.359 million job openings, down 178K from the (downward revised) May total of 7.537 million, and below the median estimate of 7.454 million.

Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number of job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+97,000) and in federal government. Job openings decreased in wholesale trade (-74,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (-55,000), and mining and logging (-9,000). 

Of note, Federal government soared by 39K from 100K to 139K, the highest print not only of 2026 but the highest print going back all the way to October 2024 (i.e., when Biden was still president). 

The June drop in job openings was juxtaposed with an overall drop in June employment, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, we now have a third consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workers, and in June the surplus was 265K, the biggest surplus since the 566K in Jan 2025, and a concerning development for the broader labor market which according to most other measures continues to fire on all cylinders.

The latest JOLTS report also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.

While the job openings number was weaker than expected for the first time this year, in June we saw continued strength in both hires and quits, In June the number of Quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - rose by almost 100K to 5.252MM from 5.348MM indicating a modest rise in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere, at the same time hires also rose by about 80K, from 3.153MM to 3.232MM, and followed a 110K increase in May.

It goes without saying that job openings sliding while hires are jumping, and more people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, while payrolls are growing (as we will find out on Friday), leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.

In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the May payrolls report jumped by 57K, even as the JOLTS implied number was far weaker than that. 

Overall, this was a weak mixed JOLTS report, with weakness in openings offset by strength in hires and quits, but most notably, the surge in government job openings as Trump appears to backtrack on even more of his promises, and shows that after some significant strength in the early part of of 2026, US labor market is now hitting an air pocket and this could translate into a notable miss in this Friday jobs report. Then again, it is common knowledge that JOLTS lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Friday's jobs report will be, although if the hires less separations dataset is any indication, it suggests that the July print will come well below expectations. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:45

CLARITY Act Failure Could Send Crypto Valuations Lower: Bernstein

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s (CLARITY) passage are dwindling as the US Senate is scheduled to begin summer recess at the end of this week, threatening another leg down for cryptocurrency valuations, according to wealth manager Bernstein.

Bernstein said that the Senate’s failure to pass the legislation could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction,” which may result in another leg down for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

“From a tactical standpoint, we expect the crypto market to bottom and start showing momentum towards late Q3 and early Q4 prior to the mid-terms,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph.

At the same time, however, the analysts said that Senate failure to pass the legislation may bring more proactive policy support from regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which may accelerate rulemaking initiatives under Project Crypto.

Project Crypto is a regulatory initiative first announced by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins in July 2025, which was later expanded into a joint staff initiative between the SEC and CFTC in September 2025. The initiative aims to create a workable regulatory framework for digital assets using existing agency authority while Congress finalizes crypto market legislation under the CLARITY Act.

Bernstein said that the two agencies could provide more interpretive releases tied to the taxonomy of tokens, clear rules around decentralized finance (DeFi) and accelerate the innovation exemption for issuing tokens that would be exempted from securities status during a finite period.

CLARITY Act odds decline to 31%

Bernstein’s skepticism is supported by prediction market traders who are betting against the passage of the CLARITY Act before the end of 2026.

Odds of the legislation’s passage before the end of the year are now at 27%, down 11ppt in the past week and down 13ppt in the past month, according to Polymarket, which shows about $3.7 million has been wagered on that prediction.

Meanwhile, White House officials are reportedly weighing a bipartisan ethics counterproposal received on Thursday, following weeks of negotiations between Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego.

The proposal would enable state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if it fails to enforce ethics laws against federal officials, three sources familiar with the matter told crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett.  

The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has been met with pushback from the banking industry, which argued that the current draft would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional financial institutions. 

On June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its August recess. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:30

Waymo Robotaxi Crash Rate 68% Lower Than Human Drivers, Study Finds

Though they've have racked up quite a few troubling anecdotes on America's roads, Waymo robotaxis have achieved a crash rate that's far lower than what's observed when humans are driving, according to a recent study published by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. A private scientific organization funded by insurance companies, IIHS is regarded by many as a superior font of accurate scientific conclusions compared to the government-run and lobbyist-vulnerable National Highway Transportation Safety Administration. 

According to the July IIHS study, "Rise of the Machines: Crash Experiences of Highly Automated Vehicles and Human Drivers," Waymo vehicles in autonomous mode posted "police-reportable crash involvement rates" fully 68% lower than human-operated vehicles in the same areas and years. Researchers studied crash rates in Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco. Importantly, the IIHS studied data from 2021 to 2024; to the extent Waymo has improved its programming, the current relative performance may be even better. 

The Waymo edge was highest in Phoenix and Los Angeles (76% and 71% lower crash rates, respectively). San Francisco's Waymos posted a 35% lower crash rate. In a bit of a headscratcher in terms of the being a huge outlier, Waymo had a 4% higher crash rate in Austin. The study's authors note that the sample size in Austin was smaller for both Waymo and human drivers. 

Dozens of empty Waymos clogged a small street in an Atlanta neighborhood, preventing residents from leaving or returning to their homes 

Waymo vehicles really shine in regard to one type of accidents where human-driver inattention looms particularly large: The robotaxis' rate of rear-ending other cars and trucks was 91% lower than what's seen with human drivers. It's rate of being rear-ended was 40% lower; here, the result may spring from human inattention that leads to last-second hard braking that catches trailing vehicles by surprise. Waymos also sparkled in single-vehicle crashes, as the robotaxis experienced 85% fewer such crashes overall, and 81% fewer single-crash accidents with injuries. 

The encouraging IIHS report comes after Mountain View, California-headquartered Waymo has established a history of eyebrow-raising incidents that we've been all too happy to report on. In two of the more recent episodes... 

• In June, Waymo recalled its entire fleet (then comprising 3,871 vehicles) after some of the robotaxis drove dangerously in construction zones. Incidents included speeding, driving past ramp-closure signs, and weaving between traffic cones. The company said it would tweak its 5th-generation Automated Driving System (ADS) software so it would recognize and act appropriately in construction zones. 
• In May, 50 empty Waymo SUVs flooded a small residential street in northwest Atlanta in just an hour. Video captured a thicket of the vehicles facing both directions and simultaneously trying to figure out how to proceed.

So far, nothing as spectacular as how Douglas Quaid's wild robotaxi ride will end in 2084: 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:15

The Bond-Salesman-In-Chief Has Fired The First Shot Of The Capital Market War That Follows The Trade War

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

US equity markets approached record highs yesterday as traders basked in the afterglow of Donald Trump’s decision to (again) call off Iran strikes in favor of diplomatic efforts. The S&P500 closed almost 1.5% higher and the NASDAQ 100 was up by almost 1.8%. Sovereign yields pushed lower across Europe and North America with Treasuries likely encouraged by comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama yesterday that Japan intended to tap the Fed’s FIMA facility to defend the Yen in the future, thereby avoiding the necessity to sell Treasuries to fund Yen purchases.

The front Brent crude future fell by more than 7%, despite the fact that there is no confirmation of material progress in loosening restrictions on global energy flows. ICE gasoil futures declined by more than 8.5% despite Russia’s ongoing diesel export ban, continued Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, the Houthis’ recent decision to spread the Iran conflict to Saudi oil infrastructure in the Red Sea and low water levels in the Rhine disrupting energy shipping and forcing freight rates higher. Similarly, Singapore gasoil spot prices were down by almost 11% yesterday. On those figures you would think all of the problems in product markets are solved. This again highlights the capriciousness of markets; it was only a few weeks ago that I was reading articles making straight-faced suggestions of an emerging oil glut.

While Hormuz certainly isn’t a Waterloo moment for Donald Trump just yet, he is obviously keen to find an offramp that satisfies key US strategic objectives of re-opening the strait without tolls, curtailing Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence, and – if at all possible – pushing Gulf states into the Abraham Accords and normalization of relations with Israel. Some progress has been made on the latter, but progress on the former two objectives continues to elude, giving this conflict more than a whiff of Middle-Eastern quagmires past.

While the Commander in Chief plays Battleship in the Gulf, the self-described bond salesman in chief, Scott Bessent, has possibly fired the first shot of the capital market war that we have long warned would follow the trade war and the now numerous proxy wars. All of these developments can be contextualized through the strategic competition between the United States and China, with Russia, the European Union, Iran, the GCC, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Israel, Australia and others playing the role of proxies, satellites, supplicants, vassals, junior partners and bit-players to the two great powers. In this respect, the US Treasury’s support of the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the BOJ in defending the Yen may have been a financial Fort Sumter moment.

In supporting Japan’s efforts to defend its currency to stave off imported inflation pressures the USA not only takes out insurance against rising borrowing costs for the US Treasury while buying up assets that Bessent considers to be undervalued relative to Japan’s improving fundamentals, it also relieves competitive pressure on US manufacturers (currently in rude health according to yesterday’s manufacturing ISM) and pulls Japan closer into the US’ strategic orbit.

This is important as the Trump administration views Japan as an important partner for countering China’s dominance in industrial production – particularly shipbuilding, steel manufacturing and rare earths processing – and both partners have an interest in preventing Japan’s reflating economy from becoming an outlet for China’s production surplus. Might we see further Japanese restrictions on Chinese imports? Could the US decision to sell EUR (even in relatively small amounts) rather than USD have been a subtle message to Europeans about US policy capabilities?

Coordinated intervention between the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury to manage the value of the Yen is perhaps the first concrete sign of the emergence of a new monetary order as foreshadowed by RaboResearch Global Strategist Michael Every several years ago in FX Wars. The post Bretton Woods system of mostly free-floating fiat with a constellation of international treaties intended to discourage state intervention and competitive devaluation has been on borrowed time due to the rise of neo-mercantilist China and the QE-driven currency devaluations of the 2010s.

Cooperation on managed exchange rates (and broader capital market dynamics) among allies may offer a path forward. However, intra-bloc accords only work if inter-bloc trade faces substantial barriers. Naturally, the US does not want to see a situation where the global role of the Dollar is undermined by developed market central banks holding larger and more diversified FX reserves, so watch as a system of “you scratch my back, I scratch yours” dollar swaplines emerges with common trade restrictions or other boons for US strategic interests as a kind of quid pro quo. Indeed, we have already seen this happen with the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ and coordinate with Israel on military matters following the extension of dollar swaplines.

So, once again we are witnessing momentous structural changes unfolding with geopolitical tensions forcing the pace. While it is certainly relevant and important, one shouldn’t be too captivated by the up/down moves of this week. What really matters is the signal for the medium to longer term.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:00

Bezos To Dump $4 Billion In Amazon Stock After Surge As Cramer Calls Sale A "Buzzkill"

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to sell 15 million shares worth roughly $4.07 billion under a prearranged trading plan, according to a Form 144 regulatory filing. The planned sale comes after Amazon shares surged about 25% over the last several trading sessions.

The shares, which Bezos acquired as founder's stock in 1994, will be sold through Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. The filing showed no stock sales by Bezos during the previous three months, although he donated 220,200 shares to nonprofits in May.

The stock's rally follows last Thursday's earnings report, which showed solid AWS growth and profitability despite an outlook that disappointed investors. Revenue reached $200.61 billion, beating the Bloomberg consensus estimate, while earnings of $5.75 per share exceeded the $1.82 consensus estimate.

Meanwhile, CNBC's Jim Cramer called the planned sale "a buzzkill."

Cant begrudge Bezos for selling $4 billion shares...but what a buzzkill

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) August 3, 2026

Here are the latest Amazon insider transactions:

Bezos will still own 880.95 million Amazon shares after the sale, a stake currently valued at roughly $250 billion.

Perhaps Bezos needs another multibillion-dollar cash infusion for Blue Origin, his capital-intensive rocket company, which continues to trail Elon Musk's SpaceX.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:40

Five Killed In Latest Ukrainian Drone Strike On Moscow As Civilian Death Toll Climbs

Ukraine has continued to conduct long-range drone strikes focused on the Moscow region, deep inside Russian territory. Zelensky has touted that he is ramping up the military pressure on Russia, and will force it to the negotiating table to end the war "by winter".

The latest overnight strikes killed at least five people and injured ten when a drone hit an industrial zone near Moscow. Several fires erupted in the aftermath of the attack on the Novoselki industrial zone outside the Russian capital.

Damage in Moscow region, via Telegram

Moscow's regional governor Andrey Vorobyov announced on Telegram, "Sadly, there have been fatalities and injuries... I extend my sincere condolences to the families and loved ones of the deceased."

Air defenses were active in the region, and it comes amid a broader Ukrainian campaign targeting Russian industrial zones and manufacturing. According to details in Russian media:

One of the wounded remains in serious condition, with doctors describing the injuries of seven others as moderate, the governor said. Two more people declined hospitalization after being examined by doctors, he added.

The victims sustained shrapnel and blast injuries, fractures, and soft-tissue and chest wounds, Vorobyev wrote.

Fires broke out at several locations in the industrial zone, including at a warehouse, while a power substation and an administrative building were also damaged by drone debris, the governor added.

In the village of Solnyshkovo, a drone damaged a private home and a vehicle, the governor said. No one was injured, he added.

At this point, there are hundreds of drones sent on Russia each night, which Ukraine describes as retaliation for heavy Russian ballistic missile attacks on its cities.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced Tuesday morning that 320 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed inside Russia in the prior 12 hours across several regions. It has decried these as terror attacks against civilians, including a horrific drone strike on a crowded beach.

It happened Monday at the Black Sea holiday village of Arkhipo-Osipovka, Gelendzhik resort area:

The beach was packed, many vacationers lounging near the turquoise waters when the drone slammed into the white sand and burst into a fireball.

Russian officials said seven people, including three children, were killed and 58 others injured by the explosion in the Black Sea resort town of Gelendzhik on Monday. The explosion was captured on video and shared on social media, and verified by NBC News.

The civilian death toll has been mounting. Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said a total of 49 civilians have been killed and more than 340 others wounded in Ukrainian attacks inside Russia over just the past week.

Russian officials say air defenses repelled a drone attack on the Moscow region, Authorities say five people were killed and 10 injured as fires broke out in an industrial area in Chekhov district.

Emergency crews remain at affected sites as authorities monitor further drones. pic.twitter.com/J9lyUHHsAu

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) August 4, 2026

Ukrainian civilians have also continued to suffer, with Russian attacks having killed three people in Sumy in the country's northeast, the head of the regional military administration said Tuesday.

"Two children and an elderly woman were killed in Russian (guided aerial bomb) strikes on Sumy tonight," Oleg Grygorov said on Telegram. "The girls were 5 and 10 years old. The children's bodies were recovered from under the rubble of their house," he described after six guided aerial bombs struck the city.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:20

US Core Factory Orders Unexpectedly Plunge Most In A Year

Despite the latest Manufacturing PMI surging to four year highs, US Factory Orders unexpectedly dropped in June (-0.3% MoM vs +0.2% MoM expected). This is the second monthly decline in the headline print in a row, but orders remain up 7.4% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Worse still, Core Factory Orders (excluding Transports), dropped 0.4% MoM (dramatically missing expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise). This is the first monthly drop since October and biggest MoM decline since April 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Orders Ex-Defense also tumbled 0.4% MoM, down for the second month in a row.

So while the soft survey data is positive, the hard data is deteriorating.

The reason for that is a familiar one in this bifurcated economy, as we showed from ISM's respondents...

• Green ones from AI, semiconductor, electronics and machinery firms report strong demand from AI data centers, chips and defense.

• Red ones from metals, transportation, chemicals and consumer-related sectors report weak demand, tariffs, higher costs, geopolitical risks and pricing chaos.

Simply put, the AI supply chain is booming, Defense is enthused; the rest is not.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:15

Bitdeer Lands $4.7B Norway Lease With a16z-, Nvidia- And Dell-Backed Volta

Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR) announced Aug. 4 that it has executed a 16-year colocation lease and services agreement for 121 IT megawatts at its Tydal, Norway campus, representing roughly $4.7 billion in contracted payments, with a renewal option that takes the potential total to $8.0 billion over 24 years. The announcement sent shares about 14% higher premarket.

The tenant is Volta Tydal AS, a subsidiary of Volta Infra Holdings, an AI infrastructure platform that emerged the same morning with $300 million in venture funding at a $2.4 billion valuation, co-led by Andreessen Horowitz and Altimeter Capital, with NVIDIA and Michael Dell participating. Dell Technologies is the technology provider at Tydal. Volta's end customer is an unnamed leading AI lab.

Bitdeer has turned an idle bitcoin mining campus into long-dated contracted revenue backed by bank credit, and it issued no equity and no warrants to do it.

Who does what Layer Party Role End customer Unnamed AI lab Buys compute. Contracted ~$10B over six years with Volta. Operator / tenant Volta Buys the NVIDIA GPUs (Dell supplies the hardware), owns and operates the compute, sells capacity to the lab. Pays Bitdeer rent. Landlord Bitdeer Owns the land, building, grid connection, power and cooling. Delivers 121 IT MW fitted to NVIDIA spec. Collects rent and service fees. Credit J.P. Morgan + one other global bank Issue ~$1.3B of letters of credit standing behind Volta's rent obligations.

Bitdeer is the landlord, not the compute operator. It does not buy or own the GPUs, so it carries no chip-obsolescence risk and no refresh cycle. It does not have to find AI customers. Under the modified gross structure it does not carry the electricity cost either, which Volta reimburses on a pass-through basis.

Bitdeer Tydal campus The terms Item Detail Contracted IT load 121 IT MW (~133 gross MW) Base term 16 years, plus one 8-year renewal option Contracted payments ~$4.7B base term; ~$8.0B with renewal Rate ~$202/kW/month average, modified gross; power reimbursed Escalators Contracted rate rises 3% a year, compounding, on both lease and services Revenue per IT MW ~$2.4M/year NOI margin (est.) ~90% Credit support ~$1.3B in letters of credit (J.P. Morgan affiliates + one other bank) Remaining capex ~$500M (~$4.0M per IT MW) Equity or warrants issued None Campus ownership retained 100% Delivery Phase 1 by Dec. 31, 2026; Phase 2 by Mar. 31, 2027 Tenant termination right No-fee exit at year 10

One line in that table needs unpacking. The 3% escalator means the rent does not stay flat. The contracted rate rises 3% every year and compounds, on the services fees as well as the base rent. So the $202/kW/month Bitdeer discloses is an average across all 16 years: the opening rate sits below it and the final-year rate well above. That is standard in long-dated data center leases, and it is why the headline total is far larger than 16 times the first year's rent.

The rate is the best in the sector

At $202/kW/month, Tydal prices at the top of the disclosed range for miner-to-AI conversions:

Deal Term Capacity Contracted value $/kW/mo Bitdeer / Volta (Tydal) 16 yr 121 IT MW $4.7B ~$202 (disclosed) TeraWulf / Anthropic (Hawesville) 20 yr ~401 MW ~$19B ~$197 (calculated) Hut 8 (Texas) 15 yr 352 MW $9.8B ~$155 (calculated) Cipher / Fluidstack (Barber Lake) 10 yr 168 IT MW ~$3B ~$149 (calculated) Cipher / AWS (Black Pearl) 15 yr 216 IT MW ~$5.5B ~$142 (calculated)

Bitdeer's $202 is stated in its Aug. 4 release as a 16-year average rate. Peer figures are ZH calculations from disclosed contract totals, terms and capacity. 

So... 

Bitdeer is selling services, not just space. This is a lease and services agreement, meaning Bitdeer operates the facility rather than simply renting it out. That is higher-margin and harder to displace than pure triple-net landlording, and it earns a rate to match. It also means the 3% escalator compounds on two revenue lines instead of one.

Norway prices above West Texas. European colocation commands a structural premium, and Tydal offers things the Permian Basin cannot: dual grid connectivity, local hydropower, an estimated PUE of approximately 1.1, and a carbon profile that matters to European customers and to an AI lab facing scrutiny on emissions. 

"This project will incorporate leading-edge NVIDIA GPU technology and frontier models from a leading AI lab into a data center that is powered exclusively through highly reliable, carbon-free energy sources," said Bitdeer CFO Michael G. Potter. 

Never Gonna Give You Up

Every converting miner faces the same problem - the tenants writing multi-billion-dollar AI checks are frequently young, private and unrated. Until that is solved, a signed lease is not something a bank will lend against. Bitdeer's competitors have solved it by selling equity: 

Cipher's Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake carries a Google backstop covering $1.4 billion of obligations. Google took warrants for roughly 24 million shares, about 5.4% of Cipher pro forma. TeraWulf's arrangements gave Google a stake of roughly 14%. Both companies bought their credit support with permanent dilution, at share prices set before the stocks re-rated.

Bitdeer got $1.3 billion of institutional credit support and issued nothing at all.

Moreover, the letters of credit are bank obligations, not tenant obligations. If Volta defaults, Bitdeer draws on J.P. Morgan and a second global institution rather than pursuing a private holding company through Norwegian courts. That $1.3 billion covers roughly five and a half years of early-term rent, and Bitdeer can terminate outright if Volta misses the credit-backstop milestones, a walk-away option most of its peers did not negotiate.

Bitdeer affiliates also retain 100% ownership of the campus, with no JV, no partial sale and no promote to a capital partner. Cipher formed a JV for its 1 GW Colchis site. TeraWulf sold its 50.1% Abernathy stake. Bitdeer kept the whole thing.

Bitdeer also intends to raise additional debt against Tydal, and expects the project financing to generate significant excess capital for other AI and HPC projects. Morgan Stanley, Barclays and Northland advised on the transaction, and leading institutions have been engaged for the financing. This is where the credit package pays off a second time. Contracted cash flows plus a bank-issued backstop is what makes a project financeable well inside what Bitdeer's corporate credit would command. Cipher priced senior secured notes at 7.125% on the strength of its Google backstop. Against only $500 million of remaining capex on a campus already energized and consented from its mining life, an over-raise is plausible.

Bitdeer also retains 47 gross MW of additional Tydal capacity, targeted for the second half of 2027 and outside this lease. It now has a marquee proof point and a live NVIDIA-spec campus with which to market it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:55

Trump Admin Drafting Ban On Chinese Optical Transceivers To Protect Data Centers From Spying

The Trump administration is preparing to slap import bans on Chinese optical transceivers, targeting a critical component for US data centers as White House officials seek to protect infrastructure supporting the AI boom from Chinese espionage, Reuters reported.

These small, pluggable connectors convert electrical signals from servers, switches, and AI chip stacks into light for transmission over fiber-optic cables, then convert the light back into electrical data at the other end. Because these modules are critical to data centers, Chinese-made transceivers could potentially allow Chinese firms to steal data, install malware, or disrupt services at US facilities.

Sources told the outlet that the Federal Communications Commission is drafting import restrictions on Chinese optical transceivers, which could take effect this year.

"Transceivers definitely pose a risk," said Divyansh Kaushik, an AI policy expert at the Washington, D.C.-based advisory firm Beacon Global Strategies. "As the data center buildout scales up, you want to make sure the data center supply chain is secure from the outset," he added.

The restrictions would affect Zhongji Innolight, which controls about 27% of the global data center transceiver market and was recently added to a Pentagon list of companies allegedly linked to China's military.

Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturers Coherent and Lumentum could benefit significantly from the measure. Coherent shares are up 18% in premarket trading, while Lumentum shares are up 14%. Applied Optoelectronics is also up 18%. 

However, as Reuters noted, those U.S. companies "lack the scale to replace Chinese suppliers immediately."

Read Goldman’s trading desk take on optical networking and transceiver stocks. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:40

Shit Out Of Luck: 2 Dead In Outbreak Of Diarrhea-Causing Parasite: Officials

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Michigan authorities on Aug. 3 said two deaths are linked to the cyclosporiasis outbreak in the state, the first time cyclosporiasis-associated deaths have been reported since outbreaks began in the spring.

A farmer washes lettuce in a backyard urban farm in Los Angeles, on March 25, 2020. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

"Two deaths have been identified as part of the cyclosporiasis outbreak affecting Michigan," the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement.

"According to medical records, both individuals had significant underlying health conditions that may have been impacted by cyclosporiasis and dehydration. No additional information will be provided on these two cases."

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In its latest update on cyclosporiasis, the CDC said on July 28 that it had received no reports of deaths from states.

The CDC said that 45 states have reported 6,707 laboratory-confirmed cases since May 1 that were acquired domestically, that patients ranged in age from 1 to 98, and that the median illness onset date was July 2.

More than 11,000 other cases are pending lab testing or further investigation. The CDC is not counting cases related to international travel.

The outbreak affecting Michigan has also impacted eight other states, federal officials said in July. Iceberg lettuce from Mexico is believed to be a cause of the outbreak.

The other states are Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

Michigan has recorded 11,234 cases in recent months, including 193 hospitalizations.

Indiana has recorded 1,285 cases. Kansas has reported 461 cases and 20 hospitalizations. Ohio has recorded about 20,000 cases. Oklahoma has reported 298 cases and 18 hospitalizations, and West Virginia has reported 268 cases and 19 hospitalizations.

Cyclosporiasis is caused by a parasite called Cyclospora that is present in produce contaminated with feces. Past outbreaks have been caused by produce such as salad greens, raspberries, and cilantro.

The disease's main symptom is diarrhea. Other symptoms can include abdominal pain and vomiting.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:00

Futures Hit Record High As Oil Tumbles After Bessent Says Hormuz May "Reopen Tomorrow"

S&P futures are trading at all time high with the latest push higher triggered by comments from Scott Bessent on CNBC who echoed Trump in saying that "we may have Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz" (or we may not). The Nasdaq also looks set to extend Monday’s gains: As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4% to an all time high of 7655 and Nasdaq futures rise 1.1%, as Palantir soared 16% pre-market after upping its forecasts, while Caterpillar rose 9% on an earnings beat. Semis are leading the Tech tape with Mag7 (DRAM, EWY, SMH, SOXX all higher by at least 1.6%) while Mag 7 are mixed: Amazon (AMZN) falls 2% after founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.07 billion of stock (Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Microsoft -2%). Cyclicals are leading Defensives with healthcare/staples lower pre-market. Bond yields are slide 2-3 bps on the drop in oil prices, and the USD is stronger as is USDJPY following a catastrophic 10Y JGB auction while intervention is not expected to have a lasting impact and the market is likely signaling the need for BOJ to hike. In commodities, WTI tumbles on Bessent's comments that we may have a deal to reopen Hormuz tomorrow (we won't) with WTI sliding as low as $76. Base metals are higher with Precious metals spiking and Ags bid. It’s a busy day, with earnings this morning from McDonald’s and Caterpillar, and the AI trade front and center this afternoon as AMD and SpaceX report. Today’s macro data focus is on JOLTS and trade balance. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Amazon (AMZN) falls 2% after founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.07 billion of stock (Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Microsoft -2%). 

• Ameresco (AMRC) rallies 30% after the energy company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• BioNTech SE (BNTX) falls 3% after the company lowered its revenue outlook as demand for its Covid-19 vaccine shrank more than expected.
• Caterpillar (CAT) posted second-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street expectations as the company’s power-generation business continued to post strong growth off the back of data center spending. Shares are up 8%.
• DuPont de Nemours (DD) falls 3% after the chemicals company reported second-quarter results and gave a full-year forecast.
• McDonald’s (MCD) climbs about 2% after the fast-food restaurant owner and operator posted second quarter results.
• Nike (NKE) falls 3% after JPMorgan cut its recommendation on the sportswear and sneaker company to underweight, noting financial impacts from the company’s “Win Now” business strategy.
• Onsemi (ON) rises 7% after the chipmaker’s second-quarter revenue and earnings beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that AI data-center demand is boosting results.
• Palantir (PLTR) jumps 15% after the company boosted full-year revenue and income forecasts and described commercial demand for its data analytics tools as “otherworldly.”
• Powell Industries (POWL) drops 11% after the maker of circuit breakers and other electrical equipment posted fiscal third-quarter EPS and revenue that missed expectations.
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) falls 5% after the maker of industrial automation products posted third quarter results and provided a year forecast.
• Snap (SNAP) gains 5% after the the social media platform posted higher-than-projected quarterly sales and gave an upbeat forecast for the current period. The results signal optimism ahead of the September commercial debut of its first pair of augmented reality glasses.
• Spotify (SPOT) falls 4% after the music streaming service’s third-quarter monthly active users and operating income forecasts missed the average analyst estimate.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) rises 15% after the defense company raised its revenue outlook for the full year.
• Wayfair (W) falls 3% after the online furniture and home goods retailer posted second quarter results.

Corporate news is also busy, with Prologis set to buy UK REIT Segro for about £14 billion ($18.8 billion) and Williams reaching an agreement to buy Momentum Midstream through a deal valued up to $5.5 billion. HSBC’s CEO said the bank will consider boosting its bonus pool for bankers if strong performance continues. In AI news, the White House plans to host leading companies today to discuss a safety framework. Competition is heating up, especially from Chinese AI models, creating what’s been described as a death zone for anyone without frontier-pushing technology or market-breaking pricing. And AI is also shaking up the VC market, with money flowing disproportionately to top-tier investors that backed the technology early.

The rebound in US tech followed a volatile month as investors questioned whether billions of dollars of spending on artificial intelligence will translate into stronger growth and profits (they will... for Chinese AI models). The positive earnings season so far has eased some of those concerns, although the reality is masked under hundreds of billions in new debt. S&P 500 companies are beating expectations at a rate of 86%, the highest in five years, while year-on-year growth in earnings per share is running at 29%. Specifically, of the 322 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this season, 86% have beaten analysts’ EPS forecasts, while 10% have missed. 68% of companies have positively surprised on sales, while 16% have missed.

“The combination of resilient economic growth, strong corporate earnings and AI-driven investment continues to provide a favorable backdrop for equities,” said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. “While investors are right to scrutinize elevated capital spending by hyperscalers and monitor developments in the Middle East, we believe these risks will be offset by the powerful earnings tailwind.”

However, as Bloomberg cautions, one potential pitfall for markets comes when SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company later Tuesday. It also sets the stage for one of the largest share unlocks in capital markets history, with as much as $116 billion of stock becoming eligible for sale for the first time next month. SpaceX stock is about 15% lower than its closing price on June 11, when the shares started trading.

“The bigger issue for SpaceX remains the looming share overhang,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “There is a sense that many investors remain interested in owning the stock but are waiting for the selling pressure associated with these lock-up expiries to begin fading.”

Elon’s rocket company isn’t profitable and has a very speculative model, so the results may end up raising more questions than they answer according to Bloomberg. Volatility could also be increased by technical factors: With a low free float, 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, according to S3 Research data, amounting to 34% short interest as percentage of the float.

Total assets in US-listed leveraged ETFs have retreated from highs, reducing the market impact from daily rebalancing. Still, rotation trades are creating pain points for hedge fund consensus long versus short trades. And while US equities look fairly resilient on the surface, positioning data point to limited investor conviction, particularly within small caps, according to Citigroup strategists. 

In hedge funds, Coatue Management’s fund plunged 8.3% last month, marking the latest technology-focused money manager to be whipsawed after the AI rout. Today’s Big Take looks at how a tax strategy for the rich built the world’s largest hedge fund. 

The Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% as mining and technology shares lead gains, while retail and consumer products stocks are the biggest laggards.Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• The Stoxx 600 basic resources index is the best-performing sector in the European stocks benchmark after copper advanced to the highest in two months
• BP Plc shares are up as much as 1.7% after the British oil major reported adjusted Ebit for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Johnson Matthey rallied as much as 5.2% in London after Jefferies reinstated the chemicals company buy, noting full-year earnings that beat the banks expectations and the Cormetech acquisition
• Travis Perkins shares surge as much as 19%, the most since April 2020, following first-half results that analysts say showed encouraging signs against a tough macro backdrop
• Zalando falls as much as 18%, the most since 2018, after the German online retailer narrowed its FY guidance alongside its second-quarter numbers
• Lufthansa shares drop as much as 11%, the most since March. The carrier reported a miss on second-quarter Ebit driven mostly by higher fuel costs
• Acciona SA shares fell as much as 10% to €208.20, the lowest level since March, after shareholder Tussen de Grachten BV sold about 1.65 million ordinary shares at €217.90 per share
• Fresenius Medical Care shares drop as much as 9.6%, the most in roughly three months, after the German company reported weaker-than-expected US dialysis volume in the second quarter
• Smith & Nephew shares drop as much as 7.9%, the most since November, after the medical-device maker reported weaker-than-expected revenue and cut its revenue growth outlook for the full year
• Adidas drops as much as 3.1%, underperforming the Stoxx 600’s consumer products and services subgroup, after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, citing “no clear catalysts to support a further re-rating”
• Metro Bank shares fall as much as 12%, the most in more than a year, as weaker fee income overshadowed improved profitability and prompted RBC to trim its earnings estimates and price target

Earlier, Asiam stocks edged lower for a second straight session, as declines in Taiwan’s TSMC and Japanese bank shares overshadowed an afternoon rebound of South Korean chipmakers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2% after earlier gains, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, SoftBank and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial also among the biggest decliners. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Hong Kong and India retreated. South Korea and Japan staged an afternoon comeback as key chip stocks, including SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Kioxia, rebounded. Chip stocks moved up after a Counterpoint Research report said rising DRAM prices are boosting the outlook for memory-chip makers. “We expect pent-up demand driven by Agentic AI and AI server CPU growth to lift prices further for conventional DRAM,” according to the report. China’s ChiNext, meanwhile, rose 5.6%, led by optical transceiver makers tracking US peers, as investors grew more optimistic about the impact of Nvidia’s rollout of its co-packaged optics platform.

In FX, yen gains are being reversed with USD/JPY approaching 158 as intervention efforts are being used as an opportunity to reload on yen shorts rather than turn the tide for the currency.

In commodities, Brent oil tumbles 3% on Bessent's comments during a CNBC interview that a Hormuz deal may come as soon as tomorrow (he is now used to emphasize Trump commentary which the market no longer believes). Lower energy prices are also boosting fixed income markets with gilts leading the declines. US yields are down 2-3bps across the curve. Also of note for bonds was the extremely poor 10-year JGB auction overnight.Precious metals have pared upside with spot gold now down 0.1%. Bitcoin sheds 0.4%. 

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve as US day begins with futures off session lows. Price action was broadly steady overnight as oil prices stabilized, with WTI crude up around 0.4% after President Donald Trump threatened Iran with renewed air strikes. IG credit issuance is expected to remain busy this week. Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, following similar losses for gilts during London session with oil prices edging higher. US 10-year is around 4.695% with bunds outperforming by around 3bp in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Six borrowers priced almost $8 billion on Monday, with at least one borrower standing down. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.3 times covered. This week’s dealer forecasts call for a sharp pickup vs last week, with about $50 billion of new US investment-grade transactions projected

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes June trade balance (8:30am), June factory orders with durable goods revision and June JOLTS job openings (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Schmid at 8:15pm.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The Trump administration is drafting a ban on U.S. imports of new models of Chinese data center components, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters, as it seeks to protect the infrastructure that undergirds the AI boom. RTRS
• Chinese officials are growing concerned about the potential for Anthropic’s Mythos and other US AI models to be used as an offensive weapon, people familiar said. BBG
• The yen continued to unwind its intervention gains and Treasuries fell. Oil rose after Donald Trump pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today, or face devastating air strikes. BBG
• Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the US holds the country’s economic policies in high regard, sidestepping questions on whether Washington helped strengthen the yen. BBG
• Oil prices look too low as disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to persist, MLIV said. Prediction markets also show little optimism that shipments will resume anytime soon. BBG
• Michigan Democrats vote today in a high-profile Senate primary between moderate Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive Abdul El-Sayed. The winner will face Donald Trump-backed Mike Rogers. Virginia, Kansas, Missouri and Washington also hold primaries. BBG
• Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general seems set to advance in the Senate Judiciary Committee today after he agreed to rescind an order creating a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, winning over holdout Republican senators. BBG
• China’s AI blitz is rapidly narrowing the gap with Silicon Valley — creating what’s been described as a “death zone” for anyone without frontier-pushing technology or market-breaking pricing. BBG
• China’s below-normal crude imports may persist if Middle East supply disruptions continue. BBG
• US Senate voted 89-4 to advance stopgap funding bill which would fund the US government through to December 11th.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall Street, where all major indices rallied, and the Dow notched a record close amid lower oil prices and yields, following Trump's strike cancellation and touted US-Iran talks, while he even suggested they are discussing opening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today. ASX 200 outperformed with the advances led by strength in tech and the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 wiped out early gains and dipped into negative territory with a lack of bullish catalysts overnight. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid the choppy performances in its tech giants. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid very few fresh catalysts and with China said to be growing anxious that Anthropic’s Mythos could be wielded against its economy, while better-than-expected HSBC earnings failed to inspire its shares in Hong Kong.x

Top Asian News

• Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said the pass-through of rising costs on goods prices has been limited so far and June overall CPI shows price rises remain moderate Y/Y. The minister added that the Government shares with BoJ the forecast that consumer inflation will accelerate in the latter half of this year and slow thereafter. Hopes the BoJ conducts monetary policy appropriately to stably and sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target and that the BoJ closely communicates with the government in guiding policy.

European bourses continue to climb, with the FTSE MIB the outperformer. Not much in terms of a broader driver; plenty of corporate earnings were on the docket this morning, while another day of no strikes between the US and Iran brightens hopes of a sustained end to the conflict. Sectors are mixed. Basic Resources top the sector pile, followed by Tech and Industrial Goods & Services. Retail is the sector laggard, with Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services rounding out the underperformers. Weighing on Retail is the earnings from Zalando (-15.5%), in which Q2 revenue missed estimates and narrowed its FY26 adj. EBIT guidance. 

Top European News

• Bayer (+3.4%), Q2 revenue and Adj. EBITDA beat estimates and confirms FY26 view; 
• Continental (-1.5%), FY26 revenue guidance missed estimates and highlighted that raw material costs are set to substantially increase; 
• Lufthansa (-9.5%), cuts FY26 adj. EBIT guidance and notes heightened levels of forecasting uncertainty; 
• HSBC (-1.0%), Q2 PBT and Net beat estimates and announces a USD 1bln share buyback programme; 
• BP (+1.0%), Q2 revenue beat and announces its intention to sell Archaea.

FX

• DXY sees relatively quiet trade thus far, trading on either side of the 100 mark in a narrow 99.93-100.06 range at the time of writing, deriving little support from the firmer oil prices, albeit WTI sees shallower gains than Brent (see Commodities update). Analysts at ING meanwhile posit “Unless ADP tomorrow and, more importantly, payrolls on Friday point to a clearly weakening jobs market … we do not expect the dollar to fall much further in the near term. Uncertainty over the next stage of US-Iran negotiations may also help limit downside pressure on oil prices.” DXY has topped yesterday’s 100.02 high but remains well within Friday’s 100.46 high and above the 100 DMA (99.73).
• EUR and GBP are also uneventful amid a lack of macro and domestic drivers this morning. EUR/USD found support at 1.1500 on Monday after slipping from a 1.1559 high, shy of its 100 DMA, which today resides at 1.1563 (vs 1.1568 yesterday). GBP/USD is tucked in a 1.3419-1.3439 range, well within yesterday’s 1,3418-1.3506 band but still above a small cluster of DMAs, with the 100 DMA at 1.3399 and 200 DMA at 1.3396, providing some reinforcement around the 1.3400 round figure.
• JPY is once again interesting, with USD/JPY continuing its mild recovery from post-intervention lows, but remains beneath the 158.00 level, with very few fresh catalysts and a lack of tier-1 data overnight and in the European morning. USD/JPY resides in a current 157.14-157.80 range at the time of writing, just shy of yesterday’s 157.93 high and the 200 DMA at 157.95.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with AUD gaining and standing out across G10 peers, with strength seen overnight following stronger-than-expected Household Spending data, whilst gains in gold and copper could also be lending support. AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain within yesterday’s ranges, whilst AUD/NZD has gained and resides closer to the top end of a 1.1918-1..1969 range, above yesterday’s 1.1961 high.
• BoJ data showed an expected shortfall of JPY 3.38tln in money market conditions (exp. shortfall between JPY 2.32-2.6tln). Data suggest that Japan may not have intervened in the FX market on Monday.

Fixed Income

• A mostly contained European morning for fixed income, after pressure seen in APAC trade in JGBs and to extent other peers after a particularly poor 10yr Japanese auction.
• As mentioned, the main point thus far was the dismal Japanese 10yr auction, featuring a lower b/c but pertinently a sizable price tail. Results sparked pressure in JGBs of near 70 ticks, to a 126.36 low. Since, the benchmark has recovered for the most part, but remains lower by just over 10 ticks and as such underperforms.
• For reference, no move to a BoJ research paper on the JGB market, where the headline points echoed commentary from Ueda in last week’s press conference.
• Bunds firmer by a handful of ticks, saw some modest pressure overnight alongside the JGB move (as did USTs), but only fleeting with the fundamentals and dynamics a very different story. The day ahead for Europe is light, and thus the benchmark will likely conform to the lead from USTs around US events, and geopolitical updates more generally. At the midpoint of a relatively narrow 124.68-92 band.
• USTs look to a few data points, alongside commentary from Fed’s Paulson. But, action is more likely to be dictated by any geopolitical developments, after President Trump’s relatively constructive commentary on the conversations with the US; however, CBS reported that only the ongoing mediator-led talks are planned. As with Bunds, flat in a c. five tick range, holding just above the 108-10+ low.
• Gilts conform, opened with gains of a few ticks, and has since slipped to a 87.04 base, lower by around 25 ticks. Pressure is a function of the modest strength seen in energy (despite it coming off highs in the early morning). No reaction was seen following the 2032 tap.
• The UK sells GBP 4.25bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.34x, average yield 4.613%, tail 0.2bps.
• Japan sells JPY 1.98tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 2.56x (prev. 3.13x), average yield 2.840% (prev. 2.729%), Tail in price 0.46 vs prev. 0.20.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, President Trump said talks with Iran were ongoing and suggested the Strait of Hormuz could reopen by Tuesday, although US officials clarified that no new negotiations were planned beyond existing mediator-led discussions. Tensions remain high, with reports of Iranian drone attacks on a US base in Kuwait and vessels near the Strait, including a cargo ship struck off Oman. Iran warned that continued efforts to break the blockade could put US forces and vessels at serious risk, while Iranian leaders reportedly believe they can withstand US pressure and raise costs through regional proxies and threats to shipping. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister is expected to visit Islamabad.
• WTI Sep'26 and Brent Oct'26 are firmer amid geopolitics but to varying magnitudes, with the former currently +2.2% intraday and the latter +3%. The difference in gains could potentially be a function of President Trump yesterday criticising major oil companies, saying they were making excessive profits and urging them to lower retail fuel prices. The mechanism being: if US refiners are forced to lower fuel prices while crude costs remain elevated, refining margins shrink, prompting them to reduce crude processing to balance books and, in turn, lowering demand for WTI crude. Nonetheless, WTI trades around the top of a USD 79.62-82.28/bbl range vs yesterday’s USD 78.43-81.30/bbl range. Brent resides within a USD 83.80-86.33/bbl range vs Monday’s 81.55-84.66/bbl range. Dutch TTF is back above EUR 59/MWh, having traded under EUR 58/MWh
• Metals are firmer across the board as DXY remains contained despite the gains across crude, with precious and base metals benefiting from the current stability in oil prices under July highs as President Trump continues to tout diplomacy with Iran, and with no further escalations seen thus far this European morning. Spot gold remains under yesterday’s USD 4,019-4,079/oz range within a current USD 4,043-4,073/oz range. Base metals also benefit across the board, with 3M LME copper back above USD 14k/t in the current 13,871.88- 14,049.30/t range at the time of writing.
• Saudi Aramco - Q2 adj. net income +33% Y/Y to USD 33.4bln (exp. 31.1bln). Benchmark Brent crude averaged approximately USD 97/bbl during the quarter as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the US-Iran conflict, caused the largest oil supply disruption on record, with Aramco redirecting the bulk of its exports via the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea. Elevated refined-product prices provided an additional margin tailwind, sustaining returns even as Brent temporarily retreated below USD 75/bbl following an interim ceasefire agreement. It flagged mounting risk to Red Sea export volumes as Houthi militants threaten attacks on tankers using that route.
• Saudi Aramco CEO said global oil inventories could take about 18 months to recover following supply disruptions.
• Oman crude for October delivery priced at USD 83.51/bbl, according to state news.
• Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trade within an USD 80–90/bbl range until a new US-Iran agreement is confirmed or attacks escalate significantly.

Trade/Tariffs

• Japan and Mexico agreed to strengthen energy cooperation, with Japan and Mexico aiming to hold first high-level economic dialogue this fiscal year, according to Kyodo

Central Banks

• BoK Minutes stated that one member said timing and pace of any further rate hikes should be determined with primary emphasis on inflation.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian President said Tehran would defend its borders but does not seek to expand the war, according to state media.
• Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said if the blockade continues, US vessels and forces will face serious risks and casualties.
• Arab media reported explosions and fires occurred at US bases in Kuwait, according to Fars News Agency. This was later confirmed by i24, in which the IRGC attacked a US base in Kuwait using 3 drones, according to a source.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Al Khasab, in which a cargo vessel broadcasted that they had been hit by an unknown projectile. More recently, a dry bulk vessel was reportedly hit by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, according to a maritime security source.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine, on August 4th, struck a major Russian oil refinery 800km from the border, attacking the Syzran oil refinery (170k BPD). A major fire broke out on the premises, RBC Ukraine reported.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea slammed US-led naval exercise and vowed to respond with deterrence of a new level, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun Trade Balance, est. -73b, prior -77.6b
• 10:00 am: Jun Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior -1.3%
• 10:00 am: Jun JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7453.5k, prior 7594k
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After several weeks of military exchanges and fears of a renewed energy shock, markets have started August welcoming the late weekend comments from President Trump that fresh talks with Iran would begin after he cancelled plans for what he described as a major attack. That optimism was reinforced by suggestions from Iranian officials that negotiations between Iran and Oman over “temporary” shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, offering a potential path towards improved oil flows. Even Trump’s post as Europe went home that “Iranian Leadership is unbelievably duplicitous”, which came following Iranian comments that they were not currently negotiating with the US, didn’t spoil things. Trump also said that his latest offer of talks was a “last chance” for Iran but that didn’t derail improved market optimism on Hormuz shipping amid the renewed focus on diplomacy.  

So for one day at least markets enjoyed something they haven't had much of this summer: falling oil prices, lower inflation expectations, stronger growth data, declining bond yields, and rising equities all at the same time. A nice way to start August even if you feel it could go either way very quickly.

The biggest move was in energy yesterday. Brent crude fell -4.73% to $83.77/bbl (adjusting for the benchmark month change), whilst WTI dropped -5.11% to $80.34/bbl. This morning, they are edging back +1.42% and +1.12% higher respectively. European natural gas futures also declined -1.80% yesterday. 

The reaction in inflation markets was also strong. The US 1yr inflation swap fell -5.5bps to 1.86%, its lowest since September 2024, whilst the Eurozone 1yr inflation swap declined -3.3bps to 2.36%. So markets are dismantling a chunk of the near-term inflation premium that had built up through July as the conflict intensified. Real yields moved lower too, with the US 30yr falling -3.6bps to 3.00%. 
Government bonds were immediate beneficiaries. The 10yr Treasury yield fell -5.8bps to 4.68%, whilst 10yr bund yields (-5.5bps) declined to 3.15%. Gilts outperformed both, with the UK 10yr yield down -9.6bps to 4.95%, making them one of the strongest-performing major developed market assets on the day and their best day since May 20. 10yr BTP yields (-8.6bps) weren’t far behind, also registering their largest daily decline since late May. 

However, unlike several of the recent oil-driven rallies, yesterday's move wasn't occurring against a backdrop of weakening growth. In fact the opposite was true. The US ISM manufacturing survey rose to 55.6 in July, its highest reading since May 2022 and comfortably above the 53.9 expectation. The employment component (52.8 vs 50.0 expected) moved into expansion territory for the first time since September 2023, whilst new orders was strong (56.7 and in-line). Not even prices paid remaining at an elevated 71.1 (roughly in line with expectations, but easing back from 73.0) dampened the mood. The associated commentary suggested the booming activity was linked to semiconductors, AI, defence, and high-performance computing. In other data, the Fed’s latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey painted a picture of buoyant lending to corporates, even if there were some pockets of softness on the household side. 

That combination of lower oil and stronger growth proved a very supportive backdrop for equities. The S&P 500 rose +1.48% to close just -0.12% below its record high from June 2. The Nasdaq Composite gained +2.13% and the Dow added +1.32%. The standout performer was the Magnificent Seven, which rallied +3.56%, posting its largest daily gain since March 31, with all bar Apple (-1.78%) up around +3% or more. Moreover, coupled with the tech rebound late last week, the Mag-7 recorded its best 3-day run (+8.98%) since May 2025, when the US and China agreed on their trade truce. Interestingly that enthusiasm didn't extend as much into the semiconductor space, with the Philly Semi Index (+1.05%) underperforming the broader market after losing -20.6% in July. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose +0.45%, the DAX gained +1.45% and the CAC 40 advanced +1.22%. 

This morning, focus continues to be on the yen story, which stabilised after its early Monday spike that we wrote about yesterday. The yen ended yesterday’s session up +0.19% to 157.10 against the USD, having traded below 155.50 early on Monday. And this morning it is -0.27% lower trading at 157.63 against the dollar, still far from the 163 level before the intervention last Thursday.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower overnight with the KOSPI (-0.96%) again the weakest performer, despite recovering some of its early losses, while the Nikkei (-0.33%) and Hang Seng (-0.49%) are also on the softer side. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are outperforming their regional counterparts, supported by a rebound in technology stocks following yesterday’s selloff. At the time of writing, both the CSI 300 (+0.94%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.18%) are trading higher. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+1.29%) is posting strong gains, driven by a rally in lithium miners and strength in commodity-linked shares, which is more than offsetting weakness in other sectors. S&P 500 (+0.22%) and Nasdaq (+0.38%) futures are up along with the Stoxx (+0.34%) equivalent. 

Early morning data showed that South Korea's consumer inflation eased to a three-month low, with prices rising 2.8% year-over-year in July, down from 3.2% in June and 3.0% expected. Core was a tenth higher than expected at 2.6% YoY. 

Away from the macro picture, one of the more eye-catching corporate stories came from healthcare after reports that AstraZeneca (-8.96% yesterday) has explored a potential acquisition of Bristol-Myers Squibb (+0.24%), which would rank as the largest pharmaceutical deal ever completed. Defence stocks also remained in focus after Northrop Grumman secured agreements worth up to $3bn related to missile interceptor production, a reminder that even if diplomacy is making a comeback, the geopolitical backdrop remains anything but normal. 

To the day ahead now, the main US data will be the JOLTS report, followed by June trade balance and factory orders. We’ll also get France’s June budget balance YTD, Italy June retail sales. Earnings include SpaceX, AMD, HSBC, Booking, Pfizer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 08:30