US Retail Sales Jumped Most In 8 Months In February

Bank of America's omniscient analysts forecast a very strong month for Retail Sales in February data (released today)...

The actual print was +0.6% MoM (better than the 0.5% consensus, but less than BofA's forecast) comes after a revised higher 0.1% MoM decline in January (and December's nothingburger)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest MoM rise since June 2025, and sales rose 3.7% YoY...

Core Retail Sales (Ex Autos) rose 0.5% MoM (much better than expected) and Ex Autos and Gas also rose more than expected (+0.4% MoM).

Food and Beverage spending fell while Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers saw the biggest jump...

Most importantly, the 'Control Group' which plugs into the GDP calculation rose 0.5% MoM (also considerably better than expected).

Interestingly, 'real' retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) have rebounded from a negative print in December...

Of course, this data was before the war started and before gas prices really exploded (but then again April's tax refunds may offset some of the pain).

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 08:41

Futures, Bonds Surge On Optimism War May End, Oil Tumbles Below $100

Futures and bonds jump and oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, as the de-escalation/technical/macro led relief rally continues on hopes of the Middle East conflict reaching an end soon  after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks, and indicated that it was possible that Iran could still reach a deal with the US during that timeframe. Trump has a national address tonight at 9pm ET to discuss Iran, but the content is unclear, with the market is expressing the view that this will be details on a wind-down rather than an escalation. As of 8:15am ET, S&P Futures were 0.7% higher,  after the cash index posted a near 3% advance on Tuesday, the best end to a quarter since September 2008. Nasdaq futures jumped 1.1% with all Mag 7 names higher premarket. European stocks jumped 2.6%, alongside a 4.9% surge in Asian shares. Final Mfg PMIs from the Europe were mixed (EU, Germany, Italy small beats/UK, France small missed) while Japan/Korea Manf PMIs were slightly better. Trump is set to address the nation tonight at 9pm EST and said he expects the war to end in two to three weeks/US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons. Otherwise, the US is sending a third aircraft carrier to the region, Iran said the US “isn’t serious about diplomacy”, the WSJ reported that the UAE wants to force the Strait of Hormuz open and is willing to join the fight, and attacks continued on both sides with Qatar saying Iran struck an oil tanker.  Brent fell 5.4% before paring the move as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed and attacks continued across the Gulf. Traders trimmed bets on tighter monetary policy, sending two-year Treasury yields three basis points lower to 3.76%. Comparable UK gilt yields dropped 10 basis points to 4.30%. Looking at today's US economic calendar, we get March ADP employment change (8:15am), February retail sales (8:30am), March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), March ISM manufacturing and January business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:05am) and Barr (9:10am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +2.1%, Microsoft +1.5%, Amazon +0.9%, Nvidia +1.4%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.9%, Apple +0.5%) 

• Li Auto ADRs (LI) rise 4% after the Chinese EV firm reported March vehicle deliveries that surpassed its own guidance and analyst estimates.
• MSC Industrial (MSM) falls 6% after the distributor of metalworking products reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• NCino (NCNO) jumps 24% after the cloud-banking software company’s subscription revenue forecast for 2027 beat the average analyst estimate.
• Nike (NKE) falls 10% after the retailer gave a surprisingly gloomy outlook for the year ahead, complicating Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill’s efforts to turn around the business.
• RH (RH) plunges 17% after the home furnishing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Oric Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) slides 21% after the clinical-stage oncology company gave safety and efficacy data from an early-stage trial of its drug-candidate for prostate cancer that underwhelmed Wall Street.
• Target Hospitality (TH) rises 24% after the provider of modular housing announced secured a multi-year contract worth more than $550 million. The company will construct and provide hospitality services for a hyperscaler’s data center development in North Texas.

In other corporate news, Microsoft is in exclusive talks with Chevron and investment fund Engine No. 1 over a long-term deal for a giant energy complex in West Texas to power a large data center campus. A number of Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxis suddenly stopped on the streets of China’s Wuhan city,  leaving passengers stranded and raising concerns about the safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology.

In AI, Anthropic inadvertently released source code for its popular Claude AI agent, OpenAI completed a deal to raise $122 billion from investors at an $852 billion valuation, marking the company’s largest funding round to date. Perplexity AI was accused of sharing the personal information of its users with Meta and Google. 

A wave of global equity optimism fueled by his comments suggesting the war could end soon is not getting the “all clear” that might have been expected after such a brisk rally. Gains are likely to be tempered by a persistent energy geopolitical risk premium, supply chain disruption and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Taders said it would take time for oil flows to return to normal even if the war ends within Trump’s timeframe, especially given the damage to some energy facilities. Trump’s team has also suggested that reopening the Hormuz strait, which carries 20% of global crude, may not be necessary to end the hostilities.

“The correlation between Brent oil prices and global equity markets has been exceptionally strong since the conflict started,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “This goes to show that a return to previous equity market highs would need the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and oil prices to drop significantly. It is probably too early for an all-clear yet.”

Trump, who will give an address at 9 p.m. Eastern Time to provide an “important update” on Iran, said the Islamic Republic could still reach a deal with the US. He added, however, that an agreement with Tehran isn’t a prerequisite to conclude the war. 

“We are seeing a relief rally, and with more information we may see a reversal, so we just need to be careful here,” Remi Olu-Pitan, multi-asset growth and income head at Schroders, told Bloomberg TV. “There’s still a lot of volatility, the market is still fragile.”

Pension fund rebalancing at the end of the quarter, short squeeze risk, de-escalation bets and hedge fund equity disposals could all play their part in the moves. Option positioning suggested a sudden conflict resolution could trigger an unwinding, and accelerate a collapse in implied volatility.  “It’s not over till it’s over,” cautions ING’s Vincent Juvyns, who views it premature to dive back in to the market with the impacts of the conflict taking months to clear. 

In politics, Wall Street’s biggest private credit houses — including Blackstone and Ares  — are facing pointed questions from Congress. Malta, known as ‘blockchain island,’ is opposing EU plans to centralize crypto supervision under the ESMA.

European stocks are rallying, with the Stoxx 600 up 2% as markets look toward a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. Banks as well as travel and leisure shares are leading gains, while the energy sector is the biggest laggard.  Stoxx 600 rises 2.2% to 595.73 with 65 members down, 532 up, and 3 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Athens Stock Exchange Index rises as much as 4.3% at Wednesday open, following index provider MSCI’s decision to upgrade the Greek market to developed status
• Thule rises as much as 5.7% after SEB Equities upgrades to hold, removing the only sell rating on the maker of roof and bike racks, to reflect “more reasonable expectations” now baked into the stock
• Sandoz shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in five weeks, after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation
• Inficon gains as much as 8.1%, the most since Jan. 15, as JPMorgan starts coverage at overweight, saying the vacuum instrument maker should be a beneficiary of the multiyear upcycle in wafer fabrication equipment
• Arcadis shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most in six months, after Bank Degroof Petercam upgraded the engineering services firm on expectation that the new management team will be able to drive a recovery
• Jungheinrich shares rise as much as 9.8%, their steepest ascent in around a year, as Bernstein boosts its price target on the German machinery company, citing enticing long-term prospects
• Nordex falls as much as 3.8% after Bank of America downgraded the German wind turbine manufacturer to neutral from buy following a 56% year-to-date rally that the bank says has priced in most of the bull case
• Berkeley Group shares plunge as much as 19% to hit a nine-year low, after the housebuilder’s profit goal for the FY27 to FY30 period significantly undershot expectations
• SoftwareONE shares drop as much as 8.9%, hitting a seven-month low, after an investor offloaded shares at a discount to yesterday’s closing price. Shares have fallen below the offer price this morning
• Cirsa Enterprises drops as much as 5% after one of its investors offloaded shares at a discount to Tuesday’s closing price. The stock is holding above the offer price on Wednesday

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his government will coordinate a diplomatic push for the strait’s reopening, affirming Britain’s desire not to be dragged into the military conflict. “I would expect further volatility in the days to come and the market to oscillate between losses and gains for a few more sessions until we get clarity on how the crisis unfolds,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG Markets. “This is likely more a temporary respite than a final game changer.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks jumped the most in nearly a year, tracking Wall Street’s rally on optimism that the war in Iran may end in the near future.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 5.2%, the most since April 10, with shares in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan leading the gains. Technology giants Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. provided the biggest boost to the gauge’s advance. Asian markets would stand to gain more than others if the US manages to defuse the war with Iran, as investors unwind an energy‑driven risk premium that has hit the region harder than most. The conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher, driving equity sell‑offs and currency volatility across Asia’s oil‑importing economies. Still, the regional gauge remains  down about 9% from a peak in February, with investors questioning how quickly oil can fall and how credible Trump’s assurances are. Market focus will now shift to an “important update” on Iran that Trump is scheduled to deliver at 9 p.m. Washington time. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4%, while Treasury yields dropped four basis across the curve. Swaps imply 11 basis points of Federal Reserve rate reductions by year-end, compared to 5bps on Tuesday. EUR/USD up as much as 0.5% to 1.1611, while GBP/USD up as much as 0.6% to 1.3301. USD/CHF drops 0.8% to 0.7928, EUR/CHF down 0.5% to 0.9190; leveraged desks seen unwinding franc shorts, a Europe-based trader says

In rates, fixed income markets have rallied but lost a bit of steam in recent trade. US yields are around 3bps lower across the curve as markets assign a 40% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end versus a 64% chance of a hike last week. Treasury futures are off session highs in early US session, although yields remain 2bp-4bp lower across a steeper curve. US 10-year is about 3bp richer on the day near 4.29%, while 5s30s spread is steeper by ~1bp. Gilts outperform, with UK front-end yields richer by 8bp as oil broadly holds losses. Investors face the prospect that US President Trump, slated to speak at 9 p.m. in Washington, will soon declare an end to the war in Iran.

In commodities, despite the optimism in stocks, crude prices have faded declines in the European session. Brent is now back above $100 per barrel having earlier dropped below the key level. WTI crude oil contract has pared a 4.8% slump to about 2.5%, and was last trading just around $99. Precious metals are diverging, with spot gold up 1.4% and silver down 0.5%. Bitcoin has added 0.5%. 

Looking at today's US economic calendar, we get March ADP employment change (8:15am), February retail sales (8:30am), March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), March ISM manufacturing and January business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:05am) and Barr (9:10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.9%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
• DAX +0.7%
• CAC 40 +0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.32%
• VIX -1.7 points at 28.87
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.56
• euro little changed at $1.147
• WTI crude -0.9% at $101.92/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump will deliver a speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m. Washington time to give an update about the war in Iran: BBG
• Oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks. The US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons, he said. Attacks continued across the Middle East. Qatar said a cruise missile from Iran struck an oil tanker. BBG 
• The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks. WSJ 
• Trump said he’s strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it didn’t join the war on Iran. He told the Telegraph that leaving the block was now “beyond reconsideration.” BBG 
• California is confronting sky-high petrol prices and the threat of jet fuel shortages because of disruption caused by the Iran war, exposing US energy insecurity as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The most populous US state is vulnerable to the turmoil in world energy markets because it relies on imports of refined products such as petrol and jet fuel from Asia after introducing ambitious plans to phase out fossil fuels and significantly reduce refining capacity in favor of renewables. Californians pay the most for petrol in the country, with a gallon averaging $5.88 — the highest level since the pandemic — compared to $4.01 in the rest of the US, according to the American Automobile Association. FT 
• Russia exported more liquefied natural gas in the first quarter of 2026 than it did a year earlier, with shipments to Europe increasing despite Moscow's push to redirect supply away from the region. RTRS 
• China’s factory activity slowed in March for export-oriented firms as their costs surged, according to RatingDog’s PMI. That contrasts with an official gauge that showed manufacturing improving despite the Iran war. BBG 
• Chinese government bonds have sidestepped a global debt sell-off since the start of the Iran war, as the world’s second-biggest economy emerges as a haven from soaring energy prices and rising global inflation. Investors are betting that whereas major central banks in the US and Europe will be forced to keep interest rates at higher levels than previously expected to counter inflation triggered by rising oil and gas prices, China will be relatively insulated thanks to its energy mix and very low inflation before the conflict. FT 
• Japan may face stagflation risks from the Iran war that would be challenging to deal with using monetary policy, new Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada said on Wednesday. RTRS 
• Trump signs executive order related to mail-in voting, said working on proof of citizenship and that voter ID and citizenship proof are subjects for another time.
• OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation in its largest funding round yet. BBG 
• Since the start of the Iran war, market pricing for the fed funds rate has swung sharply, and it now implies a roughly 45% chance that the FOMC will hike in 2026. While some of this reflects changing demand for insurance against the tail risk of more hikes, the market-implied probability that the FOMC delivers 1-2 cuts—the modal case before the war—has declined from 35-40% to about 18%. Expectations for other central banks have moved even more, and market pricing now implies about 70bp of hikes from the ECB in 2026, compared to 8bp of cuts before the war
• Trump asks CPA for lists of insurers who were good to clients, and list who were bad in response to California fires.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly rallied with global risk sentiment buoyed by hopes for an end to the Iran conflict following encouraging comments from the US and Iran, while President Trump also suggested that the war could end in 2 or 3 weeks, and he will deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday evening to give an important update regarding Iran. ASX 200 gained at the open and was led by outperformance in mining, materials, resources and tech, with nearly all sectors in the green aside from some defensives, while the index also shrugged off weak PMIs. Nikkei 225 surged back above the 53,000 level amid hopes of a nearing end to the conflict and after the latest BoJ Tankan survey mostly topped forecasts, with the headline large manufacturing index at its highest in more than five years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad upbeat mood across the region with notable strength seen in mining, tech and biopharmaceuticals, while a miss on Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and the smallest PBoC injection in more than a decade failed to derail the momentum.

Top Asian News

• Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.8 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1, Low. 50.5, High. 53).
• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) 17 vs. Exp. 16 (Prev. 15, Low. 8, High. 18).
• Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1) 36 vs. Exp. 33 (Prev. 34, Low. 28, High. 36)
• Japanese Tankan Small Manufacturers Index (Q1) 7 vs. Exp. 7 (Prev. 6, Low. -1, High. 9)
• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 14 vs. Exp. 13 (Prev. 15, Low. 5, High. 15)
• Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 29 vs. Exp. 28 (Prev. 28, Low. 24, High. 34)
• Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q1) 3.3% vs. Exp. 13% (Prev. 12.6%)

European bourses (STOXX 600 +2.1%) continue to rebound, printing a third straight day of gains thus far. The positive was helped following reports that Iranian officials are leaning towards dialogue, while President Trump said that the war is coming to an end. European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy. Banks and Travel and Leisure top the sector pile. Oil prices have been the main driver for airlines, with the drop in energy prices making jet fuel cheaper. Banks have been hit throughout the Iran war, so the prospects of it coming to an end have boosted the sector. To add, HSBC was added to Goldman Sachs' European conviction list.

Top European News

• Germany's VDMA said German Engineering Orders -8% in Dec-Feb Y/Y (Domestic Orders -6%, Foreign Orders -8%).
• German Economic Institutes confirm cutting 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts.
• UK government said new measures to ease cost of living pressure to come into force on April 1st. Increasing national living wage to £12.71. Energy bills are to be cut by average £117 a year for millions across the UK and locked in until end of June.

FX

• DXY is on the backfoot this morning with markets pricing in a “de-escalation” trade, after US President Trump said to NBC News regarding the Iran war that "it is coming to an end", with a White House official suggesting Trump is confident an agreement will be reached soon. Interestingly, from the Iranian side, President Pezeshkian noted that Iran seeks to end the war with guarantees against further attacks. DXY currently holds at the lower end of a 99.41-99.88 range. It is worth highlighting that the index saw some strength after the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said that the "Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”.
• G10s are entirely stronger against the USD, albeit to varying degrees. The CHF outperforms, benefiting from lower energy prices – the likes of GBP and EUR also benefit. For the GBP specifically, the UK government confirmed new measures to ease the cost of living pressure are to come into force today, including an increase in the national living wage to GBP 12.71 and with energy bills to be cut by an average GBP 117 a year for millions across the UK, which will be locked in until end of June.
• JPY also gains vs USD, albeit to a lesser degree vs peers. The seemingly easing Iran tensions has benefited the JPY, which builds on the strength seen in recent sessions, facilitated by jawboning and a hawkish-leaning BoJ SOO earlier this week. As for today, Japan’s Tankan survey was mostly stronger-than-expected, which supports the case for an April BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY currently trades within a narrow 158.27-159.01 range.

Central Banks

• BoJ new Board Member Asada does not comment on any specific stance. Rising oil prices put upward pressure on inflation while weighing on growth, creating a stagflationary trend.
• ECB's Stournaras said if oil prices rise over USD 150/bbl Europe could face a recession.
• ECB's Dolenc said ECB's adverse scenario is more likely to be the next baseline and current baseline is more like the best-case scenario.

Fixed Income

• An overall positive start in the fixed income benchmarks, with energy prices falling and higher hopes of a potential end to the Iran conflict. President Trump stated that the war is coming to an end, while a White House official said that the President is confident that an agreement will be reached soon.
• USTs are trading at the upper end of a 111-10 to 111-14+ range, albeit off best levels, as energy prices rebound slightly. Price action is set to remain rangebound ahead of a flurry of data and Fed speak, while Trump is set to speak at 21:00EDT/02:00BST.
• Bunds, in tandem with its peers, are gaining and currently holding above the 126 handle. The 10yr yield extends further below 3.0%, printing a trough at 2.933% before bouncing slightly. EZ final manufacturing PMI ticked slightly higher above the prelim. Figure but failed to drive any move in EGBs. In addition, ECB speakers reiterated the impact higher energy prices have on the European economy.
• Gilts outperform, continuing to be the beneficiary of lower energy prices, as BoE pricing remains sensitive to oil prices. Pricing for rate hikes have pulled back, now price in 44bps of hikes in 2026.
• Germany sells EUR 3.025bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.11x (prev. 1.51x), average yield 2.78% (prev. 2.60%), retention 24.3% (prev. 20.1%).

Commodities

• In geopolitics, optimism was seen on Tuesday over a potential end to the war, particularly following Trump’s overnight comments that the US could leave Iran in two to three weeks. This follows reports that the US could exit Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump calling on users of the strait to secure it themselves. Trump is due to make an announcement tonight at 21:00 EDT/02:00 BST. Some of yesterday’s optimism waned after commentary from the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament, who said: “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation, and there will be no negotiation.”
• WTI and Brent initially dipped to lows of USD 96.50/bbl and USD 98.35/bbl respectively as markets initially continued the move from yesterday, although a floor was later found on the Iranian deputy speaker comments, with Brent back above USD 100/bbl and WTI near USD 99/bbl at the time of writing, both still lower intraday by over USD 2/bbl apiece. Dutch TTF prices are softer once again after slipping over 7% in the prior session, with desks citing favourable weather alongside hopes of an Iranian war de-escalation.
• Spot gold is slightly firmer amid the softer USD and lower oil prices, with the yellow metal back above its 100 DMA (4,642.48/oz) in a current USD 4,661.61-4,747.77/oz parameter. Conversely, spot silver is softer on the day following yesterday’s +7% gains, with the metal today finding resistance near its 100 DMA (USD 75.22/oz).
• Base metals mostly eke out mild gains in what is seemingly a function of the USD alongside recent positive sentiment amid hopes of a de-escalation of the Iranian situation. 3M LME copper resides in a current USD 12,380.00- 12,499.75/t range after finding resistance around USD 12,500/t.
• IEA Chief Birol says more than 12mln BPD of oil supply has been lost so far due to the Middle East crisis; the current crisis is worse than the 1970s oil shocks and the loss of Russian gas in 2022 combined. Oil supply losses in April are expected to be twice as high as in March. Biggest problem is a lack of jet fuel and diesel, already affecting Asia and coming to Europe in April–May.
• UK PM Starmer said the fuel duty will remain where it is until September.
• South Korea has raised its energy disruption alert to the second-highest level due to the possible crude oil supply crisis, via Yonhap.
• US extended a Russian oil transit license via Kazakhstan to China until March 2027, according to IFX cites Kazakh Energy Ministry.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +10.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -10.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing +0.8mln.

Trade/Tariffs

• India grants one-time customs duty relief for goods made in special economic zone and sold into domestic market.
• US is rushing to put in place a system to pay back USD 166bln it collected now after Trump tariffs were ruled to be unconstitutional, according to Nikkei.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said he is strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it failed to join his war on Iran, The Telegraph reported.
• US President Trump tells NBC News on Iran war "it is coming to an end".
• US advisers who speak regularly with the US President are reportedly uncertain about the mixed signals from Trump, according to Axios. "Some Trump aides and allies say he's mostly improvising rather than following any clear plan". "Aides have been convinced at various points that Trump was leaning toward a major escalation, and at others that he was eager for a swift resolution. "Nobody knows in the end what he's really thinking," a senior adviser said.".
• US Secretary of State Rubio said have largely destroyed Iran's air force and can see the finish line with Iran objectives, adds end to Iran war is not today, not tomorrow but it is coming. said:. There’s nothing any country is doing to help Iran that is in any way impeding our mission. There is potential for a direct meeting with Iran at some point. US is to re-examine NATO ties post-Iran war.
• Iranian Foreign Minister, when asked about the status of negotiations with the US, said "No decision has been made yet. We have many considerations. Our conditions for ending the war are very clear. We do not accept the ceasefire; We seek a complete end".
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi reiterates Strait of Hormuz is closed to countries at war with Iran and said the US President must change his approach, also noted that a guarantee from 1-2 countries or from the UN Security Council is not enough. Iran has no plans for negotiations with the US. We are ready for any ground threat and are ready for at least six months of war.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has zero trust in the US and dismisses the effectiveness of any potential ground operation targeting Iran.
• Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said "Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation", Fars reported.
• Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
• Yemeni Houthi spokesperson claims a joint attack with Hezbollah against Israel, said the escalations will only drive Yemen "to further escalation in the coming period until the aggression stops and the blockade is lifted".
• Daily Mail columnist Andrew Neil posted "I am told by White House sources that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island".
• Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
• Iranian drone reportedly strikes US Victoria base in Baghdad, according to Fars news agency.
• Israeli military identified launch of missile from Yemen towards Israel.
• US and Israel attacked weather facilities of Bushehr again, via ISNA.
• Reports of a drone attack on an oil field in the "Chamanke" region, located in the north of Dohuk province in Iraqi Kurdistan; attack caused a fire in this oil field. The field is managed by an American company, Fars News reported.
• Reports of explosions in Saudi Arabia; reporting in proximity to Saudi announcing the interception of two drones in the last few hours.
• Qatari Defence said a cruise missile struck an oil tanker chartered for QatarEnergy in the economic waters, Al Arabiya reported.
• United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
• Powerful explosion rocks American base in Erbil, according to Press TV.
• Iran's Mobarakeh steel plant hit in US-Israel strike and Khuzestan steel plant also targeted, Mehr News reported.
• UK PM Starmer reaffirmed that the war in the Middle East is not our war and will not be dragged into the conflict. Exploring every diplomatic avenue to reopen Hormuz.
• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin told TASS that talks on Ukraine are on pause.

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: United States Jan FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 9:45 am: United States Mar MNI Chicago PMI, est. 55, prior 57.7
• 10:00 am: United States Mar Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 87.9, prior 91.2
• 10:00 am: United States Feb JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6890k, prior 6946k
• 12:00 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks at Eco Mobility Project
• 1:10 pm: United States Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
• 3:00 pm: United States Fed’s Barr Discusses Stablecoin Regulation
• 5:10 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Small Business

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

What had been a torrid month of March for markets ended on a positive note yesterday, as the S&P 500 (+2.91%) posted its best day since last May as comments by US and Iranian officials drove hopes that an end to the Iran war could be coming closer into view. The increased optimism boosted a variety of asset classes including credit (-18bps for US HY spreads) and gold (+3.48%). Oil markets themselves saw more modest relief given still very uncertain prospects for the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude falling -3.18% yesterday but trading +1.36% higher at $105.21/bbl this morning. Meanwhile, US officials have joined in suggesting that the US may look for an offramp before long, with Secretary of State Rubio saying last night that the US “can see the finish line” on Iran objectives. And the White House posted last night that Trump will address the nation at 9pm EST today “to provide an important update on Iran”. S&P 500 futures (+0.20%) have solidified yesterday’s gains, while those on the Europe’s STOXX 50 (+1.80%) are catching up to yesterday’s US rally, having risen by a more modest +0.50% yesterday.

The biggest trigger for yesterday’s rally came shortly after the European close as Iran’s state news agency reported Iranian President Pezeshkian saying that Iran is willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression”. While it wasn’t clear if these comments represented a material change in Iran’s position – indeed, in large part they reiterated demands floated by Tehran last week – they helped drive an extension of the rally that emerged amid signals that the US may be looking for offramps out of the war.

The latest US comments then saw Trump say last night that he foresees ending the war “within two weeks, maybe three” and that while a deal with Iran was possible, such an agreement was not necessary for the US to end the conflict. Trump also suggested that “we’re not going to have anything to do with” what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to a cacophony of signals that the US did not see reopening Hormuz as necessary to end the war. These ranged from the WSJ report we mentioned yesterday morning to Trump’s post earlier yesterday that countries who are reliant on energy from the Gulf should “go to the Strait and just TAKE IT” as well as his comments to the New York Post that the waterway would open “automatically” after the US leaves.

Oil prices moved lower following the Pezeshkian comments but are a little higher again this morning. WTI crude in particular saw modest moves in aggregate, down -1.46% yesterday to $101.38/bbl, after almost reaching $107/bbl in Asia trading yesterday, but edging back up to $103.19/bbl this morning as Trump’s comments overnight left plenty of uncertainty over Hormuz, especially if there isn’t a negotiated settlement. When it comes to talks, Iran’s Foreign Minister told Aljazeera yesterday that while there has been an exchange of messages with the US, these were not “negotiations”.

By contrast, US equities delivered a stunning rebound as the S&P 500 rose by +2.91%, its best day since May 12 last year, the day that US and China agreed to defuse their post-Liberation Day tariff escalation. The NASDAQ (+3.83%) and the Mag-7 (+4.48%) outperformed as tech stocks led the gains, while the S&P 500 airlines sector rebounded by +5.77%. The rally was also a broad one, with 421 advancers in the S&P 500, the most year-to-date, while the VIX index (-5.36pts to 25.25) saw its biggest daily decline since last April.

The positive mood has fed into Asian hours overnight, with key Asia indices also rebounding strongly. The KOSPI (+7.73%) is leading the way, also boosted by strong export data, while the Nikkei is up +4.58%. The Hang Seng (+1.97%), CSI (+1.43%), Shanghai Composite (+1.36%) and the S&P/ASX 200 +1.90% are also visibly higher.

The risk-on mood has also been visible across other asset classes, with US HY credit spreads tightening by -18bps yesterday, also their best day since last May’s US-China trade truce. Elsewhere, gold rose +3.48% to $4,668/oz in its best day since early February, while the dollar index fell -0.55% and is another -0.17% overnight.

In the rates space, Treasuries extended Monday’s rally, with the 2yr yield down -3.4bps to 3.80% and the 10yr down -3.1bps to 4.32%. 10yr yields are another -2.7bps lower overnight, which leaves them almost 20bps down from their 4.48% intra-day peak on Friday. Meanwhile, this morning in Asia, 10yr JGBs are -2.8bps lower at 2.32%.

European bonds also rallied yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds down -3.0bps to 3.00%, while OATs (-4.5bps) and BTPs (-7.6bps) outperformed amid the risk on moves. The bond rally was also aided by the March euro area HICP print which saw both headline (+2.5% yoy) core inflation (+2.3%) come in a tenth below consensus. Gilts were a relative underperformer, with 10yr yields down a modest -1.7bps as the final Q4 GDP release saw 2025 real GDP growth revised up from +1.3% to +1.4%.

Yesterday’s cross-asset rally came at the end of what has been a pretty torrid month and quarter for markets, as you can see in our regular performance review that Henry will be publishing shortly. Clearly the Iran conflict dominated the agenda, with Q1 seeing the biggest quarterly rise in Brent crude oil since Q3 1990 when the Gulf War began. It also triggered a major cross-asset selloff, and March saw Europe’s STOXX 50 post its biggest monthly decline since the first Covid lockdowns in March 2020, whilst 10yr Treasury yields had their biggest monthly jump since December 2024. So nearly all the major assets struggled, and there were plenty of other stories to look out for too. In fact, the software component of the S&P 500 saw its biggest quarterly decline since the height of the GFC in 2008, whilst March saw gold's biggest monthly decline since 2008 as well. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.

Recapping yesterday’s other news, we saw mixed data out of the US. On the positive side, the Conference Board consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in in March to 91.8 (versus 91.0 previous, 87.9 expected). So US consumer sentiment is proving relatively resilient in the face of the Iran shock, even if the expectations series did deteriorate from 72.6 to 70.9 (vs. 68.4 expected). However, the February JOLTS employment survey was on the softer side, with job openings largely in line with expectations but the quits rate edging down from 2.0% to 1.9% and layoffs rising to a 4-month high of 1,721k (vs 1,668k expected).

Turning to the data out of Asia this morning, in China the RatingDog manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 in March, down from 52.1 in February and below the expected 51.6. Rising oil prices contributed to increased cost pressures, dragging from the strong momentum in February. Meanwhile in Japan, the BoJ’s Tankan survey improved for a fourth consecutive quarter, with sentiment among large manufacturers rising to +17 from +16 in December. Companies are also signaling a larger-than-expected increase in capital expenditure though they are more cautious about the future.

Finally, turning to the day ahead, the final manufacturing PMIs for March will be the highlight on the data side. In the US, we’ll also have the latest weekly ADP employment figures and the February retail sales data. Among central banks, the Fed’s Musalem and Barr and ECB’s Cipollone are due to speak.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 08:30

Welcome to April! Kick off the month with my WFH reads:

• The oil market’s COVID moment: During the pandemic, demand for oil plummeted by about 7 million barrels a day. Gas prices plunged, and at one point oil prices went negative in the U.S.  The Iran war is doing to oil markets what COVID did in 2020—creating a demand shock that could ripple through the global economy for years. If the oil shock plays out along those lines, it would mean the global economy has only just begun to feel the pain of the war’s impact. (Axios)

• Miami Is The New, New York: The population narrative is changing across the US. Florida’s domestic migration boom has ended, but Miami’s transformation into a financial and cultural capital is just getting started. The real question is whether the infrastructure can keep up. (Housing Notes) see also Where the U.S. Is Growing—and Shrinking—in Charts: The latest Census data reveals the broad effects of a big immigration slowdown and shifting domestic migration patterns. The Sun Belt boom is cooling, and the numbers tell the story. (Wall Street Journal)

• Helium Shortage Has Started Impacting Tech Supply Chains, Execs Say: The Middle East conflict is choking helium supplies, and the tech industry is feeling it. Semiconductors need helium, and there’s no substitute. (Reuters)

• The Difference Between California-Produced Gas And The Other 49 States: California’s gas prices have been noticeably higher for decades, and it’s not just geography. Unique refining requirements and regulatory costs make the Golden State’s pump prices a category of their own. (Jalopnik)

• Three Rules for AI in Finance: Why I’m teaching a new course on AI in Finance. (Arpitrage)

• The Power Brokers Behind the $250 Billion Influencer Economy: The most sought-after talents today have millions of followers who will buy anything they endorse. These agents and managers make sure they get what they’re worth. (Wall Street Journal)

• Gulf allies privately make the case to Trump to keep fighting until Iran is decisively defeated: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are quietly pushing Trump to finish what he started. Their message: half-measures in Iran will leave the region more dangerous, not less. (Associated Press)

• MoMA’s Former Director on How to Handle Artists and Billionaires: Glenn Lowry reflects on decades running MoMA—navigating artist egos, billionaire donors, the politics of institutional art, the power of stress, why museums should never issue statements and whether art should be considered an asset class A master class in cultural diplomacy. (Wall Street Journal)

• The First Post-Reality Political Campaign: Viktor Orbán is waging cognitive warfare on a new scale. Anne Applebaum examines Hungary’s use of AI-generated deepfakes in political campaigns. When voters can’t distinguish real from fake, democracy has a serious problem. (The Atlantic)

• The Trip to the Far Side of the Moon: As soon as April 1, four astronauts will embark on the farthest human journey from Earth ever attempted. Artemis is real, and the countdown is on. (Wired) see also Inside NASA’s Artemis II Mission to the Moon and Back: Bloomberg goes inside the Artemis II mission—NASA’s first crewed lunar flight in over 50 years. The engineering is extraordinary; the politics of funding it are even more so. (Bloomberg)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Judd Kessler, the Howard Marks Endowed Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The winner of the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize,he is the author of is Lucky by Design The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want.

 

Wall Street Bonus: 2025 numbers are in and they are big.

Source: Housing Notes

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Political Polarization Particularly Strong In The US

The share of people who consider themselves on the far left or far right of the political spectrum is particularly high in the United States, according to a survey by Statista Consumer Insights.

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiat details below, among U.S. respondents surveyed between January and December 2025, 12 percent placed themselves on the far left (0 on a 10-point scale) and 20 percent on the far right (10 out of 10).

You will find more infographics at Statista

By comparison, only 7 percent of Germans place themselves at either extreme of the scale.

Identifying as centrist is also more common in Germany, with 24 percent doing so compared with 17 percent in the United States.

In France, centrism is less prevalent, with just 12 percent identifying as such, while 10 percent place themselves on the far left and a notable 19 percent on the far right.

It is also worth noting that 25 percent of surveyed French adults preferred not to answer, compared with 14 to 18 percent in the other countries studied.

While similar shares of French and U.S. respondents identify with the left and right overall, positions at the far ends of the spectrum are slightly more pronounced in the United States.

Attitudes in the United Kingdom broadly mirror those in Germany, though with a more pronounced shift toward the far-right end of the spectrum.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 05:45

'A National Calamity': 1 In 8 UK Children Reported As Disabled By Parents

Authored by Mary Gilleece via dailysceptic.org,

The recent news that one in eight children are now reported by their parents as being disabled ought to prompt an immediate national inquiry into what on earth is causing a large proportion of the population to sicken.

That millions of children and young people are stricken with disabilities ought to be front page news every day until it is sorted out.

The Telegraph reports:

About 12% of children – or around 1.7 million youngsters – are now living with a long-term illness, disability or impairment, according to fresh figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).

This has almost doubled since 2015, when roughly 7% of parents said their child had a disability, according to the department’s closely-watched Family Resources Survey (FRS).

It also comes amid a sharp increase in young people being diagnosed with behavioural issues as well as autism and ADHD.

Almost two-thirds of children with a disability had a “social” or “behavioural” impairment – by far the most common issue cited by parents, the FRS found.

The figures involved ought to terrify everyone for they reveal a population that is riven with ill-health and impairment. If accurate, a National Commission into ‘Physical Deterioration’ similar to the one conducted by Fitzroy in 1904 to find out what was causing the ill-health of young people is needed immediately. With such staggering levels of illness, there is no hope at all that our country will ever return to growth. The Telegraph continues:

The number of children with behavioural disorders who are eligible for disability living allowance (DLA) has almost quadrupled to 276,000 since before the pandemic. This total includes 10,000 children under five and 14 children who are less than a year old.

Roughly 16.7 million people – representing a quarter of Britons – now live with a disability. More women than men claim they have an impairment, though disability is more prevalent among boys than girls.

Scottish people are also more likely to say they are disabled than people living in England or Wales.

The figures show roughly 700,000 of children considered disabled are under 10. More people under 20 are also now in this category than Britons aged over 80.

I am appalled that no-one in politics is calling for an immediate inquiry into these dreadful illnesses destroying the health and chances of so many children. Sure Alan Milburn has been asked to look at the benefits system, but who is investigating the children themselves to find out why they are all so poorly?

The Fitzroy Report was commissioned after the Boer War when it had become apparent that large percentages of recruits were rejected from the Army physical reasons. The report sought:

(1) To furnish the Government and the Nation at large with periodical data for an accurate comparative estimate of the health and physique of the people;

(2) to indicate generally the causes of such physical deterioration as does exist in certain classes;

and (3) to point out the means by which it can be most effectually diminished.

It was thorough in its analysis and took a broad approach to finding out why children were failing to thrive. The commissioners examined such things as “cellar-based and back-to-back housing”, “the employment of mothers too soon after childbirth”, “white bread”, “abuse of tea”, “the desire for pleasure”, “hereditary taint”, “the universal preference amongst the women for factory over domestic life”, “the school system”, “incompetent care”, “parental ignorance and neglect” and “juvenile smoking”, for instance. In a foreshadowing of the current Ultra Processed Food debate, it reports:

A striking consensus of opinion was elicited as to the effects of improper or insufficient food in determining physique, and this factor was acknowledged by every witness to be prominent among the causes to which degenerative tendencies might be assigned, though in one or two cases its relative importance was thought liable to exaggeration.

These latest figures about the catastrophic ill-health of our nation’s children surely ought to demand an equivalent commission. After all, what prompted the 1904 Fitzroy Report is not far off what is happening with today’s Army recruits – growing rejection owing to feeble mental and physical health. In 2019-2020, 28.9% of applicants were rejected for medical reasons growing to 39.2% in 2022-3. Of these, 54% of medical rejections between 2020-24 were for mental health or psychiatric reasons.

This is surely terrifying stuff – our mentally enfeebled young are not fit to fight, to be in school or work. What on earth has happened?

Someone surely should be trying to work out what’s to blame. White bread? Juvenile vaping? Out of town housing estates with no public transport? Smartphones? Gaming? Parental ignorance and neglect?  Perhaps others will take up my cry for a national inquiry and calls will grow for someone like Hillary Cass or Louise Casey to get to the bottom of it all.

Or perhaps such an inquiry would discover that actually there’s nothing wrong at all with these children. Instead it will become obvious that millions of healthy children and young adults are being used in an obscene financial grift by private health and education providers, mental health charities and a gullible welfare system.

Terrifying either way.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 03:30

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.