Individual Economists

EU NatGas Nears Mutli-Year Highs Even As Citi Sees Supply Crunch Easing

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EU NatGas Nears Mutli-Year Highs Even As Citi Sees Supply Crunch Easing

Europe's main natural gas price benchmark is headed for multi-year highs despite the "energy ceasefire" reported between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend and improving Strait of Hormuz energy flows. Europe is heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter without Qatari LNG exports and with storage levels well below 15-year lows.

Dutch TTF futures trade around 83 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since early 2023. The September pullback to around 70 euros per megawatt-hour was short-lived.

"Even without Qatari LNG exports, Europe is injecting gas into storage at a faster-than-expected pace. European storage is over 73% full, despite earlier expectations of not getting to 70% before winter starts," Citi analyst Maggie Xueting Lin wrote in a note.

However, EU gas storage levels are still well below seasonal norms. The 15-year average sits around 90%.

In late August, when Dutch TTF futures traded around 67 euros per megawatt-hour, Goldman commodities expert Samantha Dart said prices would need to rise near 100 euros "to discourage Asia LNG demand, thereby freeing incremental cargoes to be sent to Europe to help manage European gas storage levels."

Citi's Lin identified three factors easing Europe's NatGas balance ahead of winter: industrial demand destruction, warm weather, and an unexpected shift in Ukraine's role from net importer to net exporter:

  • Industrial gas demand fell about 8% year over year in September and remained nearly 30% below pre-2022 levels in Citi's six-country sample.
  • The weakness persists after adjusting for warm weather. Citi sees evidence of additional price-driven demand curtailment, challenging the assumption that most available cuts had already occurred after the 2022 energy crisis.
  • Storage reached 73.1% on Oct. 7, exceeding earlier expectations that Europe might fail to reach 70% before winter. September injections were the strongest for that month since 2022.
  • Ukraine is providing unexpected relief. A shift from importing European gas to potentially re-exporting as much as 1 billion cubic meters this winter could loosen Europe's winter balance by 4.5 billion cubic meters versus last year.

Lin is bearish on EU NatGas prices, maintaining a fourth-quarter TTF base case forecast of 56 euros. She believes industrial demand destruction is easing the NatGas shortage amid continued disruptions to Qatari LNG exports.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 08:00

Chinese Lithium Futs Plunge As EU Hybrid Cap Deals Fresh Blow To Battery Demand

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Chinese Lithium Futs Plunge As EU Hybrid Cap Deals Fresh Blow To Battery Demand

Lithium futures in China plunged on Monday after a Bloomberg report said the European Union will cap imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles at 350,000 per year, with the "safeguard measure" set to take effect in the coming weeks.

Under a four-year safeguard measure that could take effect Dec. 1, the bloc will limit Chinese hybrid imports to 350,000 vehicles in the first year, according to the report. The quota would increase by 6% annually from the second year, while the broader safeguard would cover other suppliers to comply with World Trade Organization rules.

In the note titled "EU Caps Chinese Hybrids At 350,000 As Deutsche Maps Every Trade Weapon Left In Europe's Arsenal," we outlined that EU imports of Chinese hybrids would be roughly 45% below this year's run rate of 650,000 vehicles.

The immediate market response to this new development was a 10% drop in the most-active lithium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which closed at 104,740 yuan ($15,649) a ton.

Lithium prices have slumped in the back half of the year as the industry faces mounting pressure from weaker demand for electric vehicles and energy-storage systems.

For context, in October 2024, when the EV tariffs pushed Beijing into hybrids, Europe imported about 3,800 Chinese hybrids a month, per FT data, or roughly 46,000 a year. By year four, the cap grows to about 417,000. In other words, Brussels initially caps the flood of cheap Chinese hybrids at about eight times the October 2024 annualized import level, keeping pressure on European auto companies already grappling with sliding shares and weaker earnings.

The EU-China agreement could help avert a broader trade war and, most importantly, keep Beijing from cutting off rare earth exports, as it has done for certain metals to the US.

Back to lithium markets, Goldman analysts recently forecast that Chinese and global lithium markets would shift from deficits to near-balance in the fourth quarter, then into surpluses over the next two years. The analysts pointed to slower underlying growth in EVs and energy storage, alongside reduced inventory-building needs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 07:20

Trump Declares Ukraine Energy Ceasefire; Zelensky Says "News To Me" As Russia Attacks Powerplant

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Trump Declares Ukraine Energy Ceasefire; Zelensky Says "News To Me" As Russia Attacks Powerplant

US relations with Ukraine are once again spiraling fast, especially following President Trump's 'shock' declaration Saturday while addressing Zelensky's anger at the diesel deal with Russia, "I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal… And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president."

The rebuke had been in response to Zelensky blasting the diesel arrangement as "not fair and not honest" and a "sign of weakness" by Trump, and a "birthday gift" to Putin.

And then on Sunday morning, again to the great surprise of Western allies, Trump announced on social media a new energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia - except that Kiev quickly said it knows of no such ceasesfire.

"Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!"

More reported blackouts in Kiev Sunday evening, via AFP.

The last such energy ceasefire attempt announced by Trump was in mid-September, but it didn't hold and in fact collapsed rather quickly after. In reality it never so much as got off the ground, before both sides were back at hammering each other's oil, gas, and electricity infrastructure.

Very soon after this latest announcement by Trump on Sunday, Zelensky told US media that it was "news to me". He said to Axios while reacting to Trump's Truth Social post: "If President Trump negotiated it with Putin, please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready, and we will accept it."

And yet the dilemma for Kiev remains: it is vehemently against a US-Russian diesel deal, but any pause in energy attacks would serve to protect that very deal.

This unusual and very public back-and-forth is happening as the Ukrainian capital has been plunged into darkness:

Zelensky has in follow-up said on X that he was "awaiting details from the American side" - and has also complained that Russia has continued hitting Ukraine's energy sites on Sunday. According to more of the latest from Zelensky:

Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of striking a power plant in Kyiv after Donald Trump announced an "energy ceasefire".

The Ukrainian president says in a post on X that he has briefed Trump on the "brutal Russian strikes that continue unabated". He says earlier "the Russians struck a power plant in Kyiv with a 'shahed' drone, and many districts experienced power outages".

"Later, there were strikes on energy facilities in the Kharkiv region. And all of this happened AFTER the President of the United States made his statement about an energy ceasefire," he says.

His fresh video address:

Meanwhile Washington still has considerable leverage over Ukraine, putting Zelensky between a rock and a hard place. The Trump White House can always block weapons and funds - something it has previously threatened to do but never pulled the trigger on.

Fresh reporting in Financial Times is already putting specifics on the table to be potentially revoked:

American diplomats are said to be currently lobbying ⁠European capitals to pressure Ukraine end ​the attacks on Russian oil refineries:

The message from the ​US included threats to cut off intelligence sharing ​and Purl (the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) mechanism for procuring US weapons ‌for ⁠Ukraine, the report added.

One official who was given a message from a Pentagon official stated: "They are calling Kyiv . ... They are calling everyone [in Europe]" in order to lean on them.

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 07:01

Crypto Wallet-Maker Ledger Confirms Unauthorized Hardware Implant, Says Losses May Exceed $86M

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Crypto Wallet-Maker Ledger Confirms Unauthorized Hardware Implant, Says Losses May Exceed $86M

Authored by Michael Millard via CoinTelegraph.com,

Hardware wallet maker Ledger, which has been investigating reports of crypto losses involving its devices purchased from a Southeast Asian reseller, confirmed that one of the affected users' devices contained an unauthorized hardware implant.

Ledger said in a Saturday post on X that it was contacting users as part of its ongoing investigation into the losses, which investigator Specter estimated may exceed $86 million across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron.

Ledger asked that individuals who have information regarding the investigation to contact its bounty program at bounty@ledger.fr.

As a measure of precaution, reseller CryptoBilis confirmed in the post that it had ceased sales of all hardware wallet inventory until the investigation is concluded. Ledger said it is in active communication with CryptoBilis on next steps.

Ledger recommends users who purchased one of their devices from this reseller to not initiate set-up if they have not yet done so.

If they have set up their Ledger device, they should consider moving assets to a new Ledger signer, including using a new seed.

Cointelegraph reported on Friday that CryptoBilis was listed as an authorized Ledger reseller in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Ledger has not confirmed how many customers may be affected or the value of the reported losses.

In a statement to Cointelegraph, Ledger said the incident appeared to be isolated to the single reseller and its market.

"Ledger's infrastructure, systems and services were not compromised," the company said, adding that its investigation remained ongoing.

For assistance or questions, contact Ledger customer support through official channels at http://support.ledger.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 06:55

UBS Identifies "The Next Leg Of The AI Trade"

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UBS Identifies "The Next Leg Of The AI Trade"

Catherine Gordon, UBS's energy and resources expert, highlighted "AI Infrastructure Constraints Emerge As Next Leg Of The Trade" in a Friday note to clients. The theme closely aligns with our "Owning The Bottlenecks" note, which centered on companies positioned to benefit from supply constraints in the critical materials space that feed not only the AI infrastructure buildout but also the rearmament supercycle.

Gordon's note outlined that traders are shifting their focus to the power, data-center capacity, and financing needed to sustain the artificial intelligence buildout, as infrastructure constraints emerge as a potential driver of the next leg of the trade.

Gordon explained:

The AI narrative is increasingly shifting from model development toward the infrastructure needed to support demand, with investors focusing on whether enough power, data center capacity and financing can be deployed to sustain the buildout over the coming years.

While questions around OpenAI revenue estimates briefly introduced some uncertainty into the AI trade, the broader market takeaway remains intact: demand is not the primary concern. Instead, attention is gravitating toward the supply side of the equation, particularly power availability, which is emerging as a critical constraint. Recent long-term power purchase agreements by Alphabet and Amazon have reinforced that theme and helped keep infrastructure names at the center of the discussion.

Sentiment across the AI complex remains somewhat fragile amid ongoing debates around capex sustainability and infrastructure funding, but industry feedback continues to point to a constructive demand backdrop.

Conversations at Data Center World Expo in Singapore were largely focused on the ability of the supply chain to ramp capacity quickly enough rather than any meaningful deterioration in end demand, reinforcing the view that execution and infrastructure deployment are becoming the key variables for the next phase of the AI trade.

Gordon's view of the shifting AI trade, focusing on the building blocks that make the AI data-center buildout possible, aligns with a theme we laid out in late September: "owning the bottlenecks."

We recently noted that the Trump administration is accelerating efforts to rebuild conflict-free supply chains and reduce dependence on China for critical materials. The point here is to own the producers outside China that can deliver conflict-free critical materials today to supply power grids, reindustrialization, data centers, and the rearmament cycle, such as rare earths and industrial metals, including tungsten. 

This comes as resource nationalism, sparked by China, shows no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 05:45

Europe And Russia Flirt With Nuclear War

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Europe And Russia Flirt With Nuclear War

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

There is no shame in armistice when the alternative is Armageddon...

War is ugly and awful. People who experience it generally detest it. In movies, soaring soundtracks make falling buildings and gunfights seem exciting. In real life, people feel excruciating physical and emotional pains that never really fade. It's Hell on Earth.

After WWI, nations around the world celebrated Armistice Day on November 11, which later became known as Remembrance Day in many countries. Remembering the dead was only half of the holiday's purpose; it was equally important for the survivors of the Great War to remember the costs of total war, so that mankind would never unleash such cataclysm again.

We did not sufficiently remember the costs of global war, and twenty years later, humanity endured a Second World War far more deadly than the First. After WWII, there was a movement in the United States to honor all veterans - both living and dead - on Armistice Day. President Eisenhower signed into law a bill renaming Armistice Day as Veterans Day, and we Americans have observed the holiday ever since.

We should honor our military veterans every day. By forgetting about Armistice Day, though, we stopped remembering the horrors of war. November 11 was once a day for survivors to say, "Never again." It transformed into a holiday that celebrates heroes and sacrifice, while often burying the most important warning from past generations to the present: Do not repeat our folly.

War is tragedy, not entertainment. Although I wish that we humans had longer memories when it comes to the psychological toll of mass killing, we barely know peace for half-a-generation before descending into Hell once again.

Wars between belligerents who see no alternative to either victory or death are cruel, bloody affairs.

Despite historical revisionism that often casts the use of nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as indefensible, the enormous loss of American marines, sailors, and soldiers on scattered Pacific islands proved that the Japanese would continue fighting to the last man before entertaining any notion of surrender. Both the Balkan Wars before WWI and the Yugoslav Wars following the Cold War were marked by ethnic cleansing, rape, and mass murder. Every Islamic war against Israel seeks the Jewish state's eradication; therefore, every war Israel fights is life or death for the nation.

The war in Ukraine has taken on a similar zero-sum seriousness. Ukraine's wartime president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has repeatedly insisted that there can be no peace until all formerly Ukrainian territory now claimed by the Russian Federation - including Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014 - is returned to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said this demand is an impossibility.

Ukraine desires membership in the European Union and the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization; Russia went to war in Ukraine, in part, to keep NATO's thirty-year encroachment from reaching the entirety of its western borders.

Ukraine and European members of NATO have described the war as an existential threat to all of Europe. Russian politicians, academics, and pundits similarly describe the war as an existential threat to Russia's future survival.

Both sides seek what the other refuses to give. A dangerous stalemate now exists.

Although accurate numbers are difficult to obtain, both Russia and Ukraine claim to have inflicted hundreds of thousands of casualties upon the other. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced, and Russia's border regions have endured sustained attacks.

Ukrainian authorities continue to press-gang young men into military service. European Union countries that welcomed hundreds of thousands of fleeing Ukrainians back in 2022 are beginning to insist that young Ukrainian men be sent back home to fight. European and American politicians have suggested that Ukraine's legal age for conscription should be lowered and that Ukrainian women should be forced into combat, too. Martial-law-President Zelenskyy has admitted that his country is struggling to replenish lost troops.

In Russia, there is less concern about fielding troops for what the government calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine. There is widespread concern, however, that the military will have considerable difficulty defending the country effectively should E.U.-NATO expand the conflict beyond Ukraine - especially if Russia is forced to defend its Kaliningrad exclave situated between Lithuania and Poland.

European politicians and military personnel have argued that taking Kaliningrad would effectively cut Russia off from the Baltic Sea and tighten the noose of a cordon sanitaire formed around Russia's European flank. Although the largest country in the world by territory, Russia's moderate population of one-hundred-fifty-million puts it at a disadvantage against a European population three times its size.

With real troop losses and the threat of future troop losses weighing heavily on the minds of decision-makers in Europe and Russia, what once was unthinkable has become more openly discussed: the use of nuclear weapons on the continent. For eighty years, the taboo against atomic warfare has been so great that the United States and the Soviet Union fought a half-century Cold War in the shadows in an effort to avoid direct confrontation. However, as Russia, Ukraine, and E.U.-NATO struggle for leverage and deterrence, the likelihood of nuclear conflict is growing.

Despite the fact that Ukraine is not a part of NATO, military representatives from all of NATO's thirty-two members gathered in Kyiv this week. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the chair of the NATO Military Committee, announced, "We are here in full strength with a clear message: The bond between NATO and Ukraine is stronger and stronger."

On Tuesday, the French military test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile over the Atlantic. President Emmanuel Macron was present for the test and described it as "a new demonstration of the credibility of our deterrence" and "a clear message ... for wherever it must be received."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov agreed that France's missile launch was a "loud and clear message." Peskov then warned: "Against the backdrop of such aggressive actions and such plans, Russia is on alert. We are taking all necessary measures to ensure our national security at the strategic level."

At the end of September, Russia sent official notices to NATO and Brussels warning that it would use nuclear weapons in defense of its territory, including Kaliningrad. In blunt language that unnerved European leaders, Russia's diplomatic message promised "Russian strikes against decision-making centers in the alliance's member states right from the outset."

Russian Professor Sergey Karaganov - a highly influential foreign policy figure with close ties to both President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov - argues that "Russia must be prepared to use nuclear weapons." Because E.U.-NATO countries have population and economic advantages over Russia, Russia must use its "competitive advantage" in nuclear weapons to deter European military actions. Karaganov insists, "Nuclear weapons are necessary to prevent major wars, but this only works if the threat is taken seriously."

The head of Russia's Council on Foreign and Defense Policy then takes direct aim at Europe: "Western European elites must be punished for their aggressive policies ... and an EU that has lost its mind must begin to truly fear." Furthermore, "Seeking peace through non-nuclear means alone could prove far too costly for Russia."

Karaganov concludes, "If the current Ukrainian or German regime ... were to acquire nuclear weapons, we would be obliged to launch a preemptive strike because we'd have to stop them. It would be a short war, as a result of which these countries would cease to exist."

There are those in the U.K., Europe, Canada, and America who believe war with Russia is inevitable. Before we reach the point of no return, I humbly ask that people take a moment to remember why we all once feared WWIII. Remember why mutually assured destruction was madness. There is no shame in armistice when the alternative is Armageddon.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 05:00

EU Caps Chinese Hybrids At 350,000 As Deutsche Maps Every Trade Weapon Left In Europe's Arsenal

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EU Caps Chinese Hybrids At 350,000 As Deutsche Maps Every Trade Weapon Left In Europe's Arsenal

Brussels has finally picked a rung on the "escalation ladder." 

According to a document seen by Bloomberg, the EU will cap imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles at 350,000 cars per year, with the "safeguard measure" taking effect as soon as December 1. The limit rises 6% a year from the second year and the measure runs for four years. And to stay on the right side of the WTO's non-discrimination principle, the cap will formally apply to all hybrid imports, with China's quota "no less than any other source."

The cap puts a number on what Trade Commissioner Šefčovič brought back from Beijing on Friday, when he said the two sides had agreed to halve Chinese hybrid and plug-in hybrid exports to the EU ("a crucial first step, but only a first step"). Beijing's own readout mentioned only an "understanding on hybrid vehicle trade in a WTO-consistent manner": no volumes, no baseline, no timeline and no enforcement. Which is presumably why Brussels decided to write the number down itself.

How much does it bite? Per Eurostat data cited by Asia Times, the EU imported roughly 378,000 Chinese hybrids (218K plug-ins and 161K full hybrids) in the first seven months of 2026, an annualized pace of about 650,000. A 350,000 cap is therefore roughly 45% below this year's run rate, in line with the "halve" headline. Then again, back in October 2024, when the EV tariffs pushed Beijing into hybrids in the first place, Europe was importing about 3,800 Chinese hybrids a month (per FT data), or roughly 46,000 a year. By year four the cap grows to about 417,000. In other words, Brussels is capping the flood at almost 8 times the level that triggered it.

When we first reported the plan on Wednesday ("Better Late Than Never?"), our verdict was "just 10 years too late". The more interesting question is where this sits in Europe's arsenal, and how far up the escalation ladder Brussels is willing to climb.

Conveniently, Deutsche Bank's Marion Muehlberger answered precisely that in a ten-question Q&A published last week, ahead of Šefčovič's trip to Beijing, titled "Crunch time for EU-China trade relations"( and available to pro subs). The centerpiece is a single table, which may be the most useful cheat sheet on EU-China trade policy we have seen: every tool Brussels could deploy against Beijing, ranked from most to least likely, with the precedent and the catch for each one.

Notably, Brussels skipped the top rung. DB's base case was an anti-subsidy investigation into plug-in hybrids, with tariffs "in early 2027 at the earliest." Instead, the Commission reached for rung three, safeguards, which DB flags as needing qualified-majority backing and which "usually apply to all imports", exactly the WTO-friendly design in Bloomberg's document. The precedent DB cites is also a hint about how "temporary" these things tend to be: the EU's steel safeguards have been in place since January 2019.

Below we walk down the rest of the ladder, and explain why the most powerful weapons sit at the bottom precisely because nobody wants to fire them.

The Top Of The Ladder: Ready To Go (Mostly)

At the "high likelihood" end, DB lists the tools that are either already loaded or require little political courage:

  • Anti-subsidy tariffs on plug-in hybrids. The groundwork for the investigation is reportedly already done, and the precedent is obvious: the anti-subsidy duties on Chinese EVs imposed in 2024. The catch: it takes at least 2 months to get even provisional tariffs in place (and as a reminder, it was Chinese hybrids that waltzed through the loophole left by those EV tariffs). This was DB's pick for the hybrid response; the safeguard below now looks like the faster route.
  • "DiversifyEU". A brand new instrument to reduce reliance on single suppliers in strategic sectors, potentially including tariffs. Its legal form has yet to be determined and there is "no consensus yet on how interventionist" it should be, which is Brussels for "we have a name, a public consultation, and not much else."
  • Safeguards against selected chemicals (PET), and potentially machinery and electrical goods later. Precedent: the steel safeguards in place since January 2019. The catch: they need a qualified majority and usually apply to all imports, not just Chinese ones. This is the rung Brussels just picked for hybrids, with the 350,000 cap formally applying to every exporter.
  • The Industrial Accelerator Act: "Made in EU" and low-carbon requirements for public procurement and EV subsidies. Still in the legislative process, and "adoption could still take months."
The Middle: Narrow, Slow, Or National

Further down, the tools get sharper but also more cumbersome:

  • The International Procurement Instrument could exclude Chinese companies from the €2 trillion EU procurement market. It has been used exactly once, in an April 2024 probe of China's medical-device procurement, and the resulting restriction applies only to contracts above €5 million. Diversification at its finest.
  • Inbound FDI screening is left to individual countries. Germany registered 339 national screening cases in 2025 and imposed restrictions in just 2% of them.
  • Dual-use export controls on emerging technologies, with the Dutch restrictions on ASML lithography exports as the template. DB's warning here is blunt: this one "increases likelihood of forceful Chinese retaliation."
The Bottom: The Bazooka Nobody Fires

At the very bottom of the ladder, and the bottom of DB's likelihood scale, sits the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), the EU's so-called "trade bazooka." On paper it can do almost anything: tariffs, import and export restrictions, export controls on key technologies, exclusion from public contracts, revoking intellectual property protection, blocking FDI, restricting access for banks and insurers, and curbing data transfers under GDPR.

In practice, DB notes, the instrument "has never been used so far." Deployment is a multi-stage process that "might take two to three months" and requires a qualified majority among member states.

Regular readers will recall the last time Brussels dusted it off: in January, when Europe prepared to unleash the anti-coercion "trade bazooka"... against Trump over Greenland. The bazooka was never fired then either, but it is telling that Europe's first instinct was to point it at Washington, not Beijing.

Just above the ACI sits the newest entry: a "New Section 301-like tool", i.e. the Franco-German proposal that Macron and Merz sent to von der Leyen last Monday. As Reuters reported, the tool would target dumping, widespread subsidies and restricted currency convertibility without naming China, and Commission countermeasures would take effect unless a qualified majority of member states objected. DB's caveat: there are "concerns that such a tool would not be compliant with WTO rules", and it would take time to create.

The Trigger Problem

Which brings us to the crux of DB's argument, and the reason Paris and Berlin bothered with a new tool in the first place: speed.

While trade defence escalations are likely to be felt quite fast by European industries (i.e., export controls on rare earths), the EU will take months to invoke its current deterrent, the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI). The proposed new instrument could be deployed rapidly unless there is a qualified majority against it – a much lower hurdle and comparable to the activation of anti-subsidy tariffs.

In other words, Beijing can turn off Europe's rare earths in an afternoon, while Brussels needs a quarter just to schedule the vote. DB says the Franco-German tool would let the EU react "within 24 hours", which would make it "a far better deterrent in any trade dispute than the ACI."

How big is the gap? Here is our attempt to put the EU's reaction times side by side, using DB's estimates and the one real-world precedent: the 2024 EV case, where it took Brussels 275 days from launching the probe to provisional duties, and 392 days to definitive ones.

To be fair, the hybrid safeguard is the fastest Brussels has moved yet: if it kicks in on December 1, that is 55 days after Bloomberg first reported the plan, roughly in line with DB's "at least 2 months" for provisional anti-subsidy duties, and positively lightning-fast by EU standards. Then again, this is a quota China effectively pre-cleared at last week's talks. The real test is how fast Brussels moves when China says no.

Meanwhile, China does not need a qualified majority for anything. Recall that we warned a year ago that Europe was walking into the rare earth trap, with McKinsey estimating that up to 4 million German jobs were at risk from a prolonged export ban. And Beijing has shown it is happy to escalate on its own timeline:

Of course, a faster trigger is only a deterrent if someone is willing to pull it. And even Deutsche is not sure the new tool would be new at all: "it is not clear yet" whether Paris and Berlin want a separate instrument or "simply propose to make the activation of the existing tool easier." Either way, creating it "would require several months." A rapid-response tool that takes months to build: very European.

Germany Finally Notices

The more interesting political shift is Berlin. DB argues that the Franco-German letter is "the clearest evidence of a more hawkish turn of the German government", which shows "greater willingness to apply the EU's trade defence toolbox" but "still refrains from outright escalation."

The reason for the change of heart is not hard to find. Germany's old model of exporting machinery and cars to China is breaking down as China makes those goods itself, and then sells them to everyone else. China's share of global car exports went from 5% in 2013 to 15% in 2025, on par with Germany, while in specialised and general industrial machinery, the crown jewels of the Mittelstand, China has already overtaken Germany.

Inside Europe, it looks even worse. As we put it last month, "why European manufacturing is doomed in one chart": every European automaker has lost share in Europe, while Chinese brands gained almost 5 percentage points in a year.

And yet, DB notes, China "remains an important market and innovation partner for many German firms", sometimes called "the fitness center for German corporates." Which is a polite way of saying that a good chunk of DAX earnings still depends on the country Berlin now wants to get tough with. That is also why the bilateral deficit keeps widening, back to around 2% of EU GDP:

What Happens Next: "Rather Minimalist"

So how did DB's roadmap hold up, and what comes next?

  • Last week's Beijing talks: DB expected the Šefčovič-Wang meeting to "likely not bring a major breakthrough," with "little movement on the EU's demand to restrain exports to Europe." Call it half right (pun intended): Brussels says Beijing agreed to halve hybrid exports, but China put no number in its own readout, so the EU is now writing one into a safeguard. Beijing also promised to keep easing rare earth export licensing through a "green channel", which tells you who holds the leverage.
  • Thursday-Friday (Oct 15-16) EU summit: leaders will discuss the hybrid cap along with broader ways to stop the flood of subsidized Chinese goods, and Šefčovič still needs their endorsement. DB had pencilled in an anti-subsidy probe into plug-in hybrids as the most likely next step, with tariffs "in early 2027 at the earliest"; the safeguard now looks like the faster route.
  • December 1: the hybrid cap takes effect, if all goes to plan.
  • December 17-18 summit: the Commission is expected to present DiversifyEU beforehand.

Overall, DB expects EU leaders "to continue their rather minimalist approach", relying on established tools and "selectively broadening their toolbox... while seeking to avoid a broader trade conflict with China." Bloomberg's scoop suggests DB nailed it: Brussels climbed exactly one rung, and picked the one least likely to upset Beijing.

DB also reminds Brussels where the real problem lies. The bank argues Europe's China headache is as much a "Europe problem" as a China problem: energy costs, weak productivity, scarce risk capital and regulation. And on that front, progress is underwhelming: implementation of Draghi's reform agenda has reached just 16% (41% including partially implemented measures), with clean energy and the integrated market still dominated by "pending" and "planned."

Bottom Line

DB's ideal endgame is "derisking rather than decoupling": continued trade with China, but with fewer strategic dependencies, more reciprocity and better market access, alongside a more competitive Europe (good luck). Goldman's European trading desk was less diplomatic when the cap was first floated on Wednesday, noting that the hybrid measures "will only briefly limit China's market share gains."

We side with Goldman. Deutsche's table shows that Europe has built an impressive arsenal, but its most potent weapons sit at the bottom of the likelihood scale precisely because Brussels is afraid of what Beijing would do in response, and Beijing knows it. As long as China controls the rare earths and Germany's carmakers still need the "fitness center", the EU's escalation ladder will be climbed one slow, carefully telegraphed rung at a time, while China's market share keeps climbing much faster.

Thursday's summit will show whether Europe's leaders want to go any further up the ladder. Our bet: they stay right where they are, and the whole thing eventually fades with a whimper alongside Germany's once mighty auto industry.

Much more in the full Deutsche Bank "Crunch time for EU-China trade relations" note, available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 04:15

UK Govt Wants "Interventionist State Policing & Regulating Of Online Space"

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UK Govt Wants "Interventionist State Policing & Regulating Of Online Space"

Authored by Kit Knightly via OffGuardian,

The United Kingdom already has one of the most controlled digital environments in the world.

We have a social media ban for children in place, requiring everyone to scan their ID or otherwise verify their age to use social media. They require age verification for "adult content". There are proposals and legislation pending to implement "device level nudity detection", introduce a "social media curfew" for teenagers, and we already lead the world in social media-related arrests.

But, according to the Culture and Technology Secretary Lisa Nandy, we are far from done.

Last week, at the Labour Party Conference, Nandy gave a speech hailing the UK's "first in the world" social media ban (it's not actually the first, except by some very specific metric, but whatever). She told the conference [emphasis added]:

[T]he world wide web - that created [sic] by Tim Berners Lee, to share knowledge, not exploitation - has revolutionised the way we live. An extraordinary democratic force, a source of connection, creativity and solace that has unleashed incomprehensible hatred, anger and polarisation - ask yourselves this, while it has undeniably shaped and defined us, have we done anything like enough to shape and define it?

Like the printing press, electricity and television, it has upended society. But what is almost unique to this moment is how absent the state - on behalf of its people - has been for so long. We have outsourced a revolution almost entirely to the private sphere to shape and police.

It is an almost violent indifference. To the women whose privacy and dignity is stripped from them. To the children who are preyed upon, their childhoods stolen. To people - how many of you in this room particularly women- hounded from public life. Where anger is monetised and profit put before people's lives.

So conference, we are calling time on that indifference. Enough is enough.

We will not look away or stand aside when it comes to safety online. And we will be the first. First in the world to introduce legislation to make it impossible for children to take, share or view nude images. First in the world to introduce a comprehensive social media ban for children.

...[W]e will do whatever it takes. Because when it comes to women and girls. Women's rights are human rights and human rights are non-negotiable.

But friends shouldn't we be ashamed, that decades of violent indifference has come to this, having to remove our children from social media altogether, because we cannot protect them from harm?

So our message to the incredible tech sector, who are everyday leading breathtaking innovation, is that this is our collective call to arms.

Let this country pioneer technology as an unequivocal force for good. Because our online spaces live in the palm of our hands, and the cables that run under our feet. They are a civic space like any town hall or high street. So let's insist they are not just safe but thriving, inclusive and empowering.

Where people can trust what they see, and find common ground and connection.

Prior to her speech, Nandy had told The Guardian:

"We shouldn't accept that this is the end [...] This is a staging post to what must be a very active interventionist state, policing and regulating the online space so that people are safe."

To paraphrase a politician rather more charismatic than Nandy, it seems this is not the end of digital censorship, it's not even the beginning of the end of digital censorship, or even the end of the beginning...rather it may be the beginning of the beginning.

So what does that mean, in real terms?

Well, digital ID obviously.

One of Andy Burnham's first acts as Prime Minister was to "scrap" the BritCard digital ID scheme. But that was very much a gesture.

It never really went away, and it will be coming back...quite soon if simmering headlines like "Britain can't shelve Digital IDs forever" are anything to go by.

Probably, in the near future, something will happen that will "force" good old Andy to "revisit the digital ID issue".

And, of course...

Without global interoperability, digital IDs can't deliver on their promise
Tech Radar

And, once digital ID is officially unscrapped and "globally interoperable" the social media ban for children will spread to verified ID for digital purchases, or to use AI or to prevent the spread of "misinformation, or even ID-gating internet access itself.

Whatever they want.

If everything they've already done is only a "staging post", just imagine how tight a grip they really want.

"A very active interventionist state, policing and regulating the online space so that people are safe."

Chilling stuff. Perhaps most chilling of all is the fact her handlers think this is the positive spin that will sell the idea to the proles.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 03:30

The Latest Nord Stream News Might Lead To Something Much More

Zero Hedge -

The Latest Nord Stream News Might Lead To Something Much More

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Regardless of however the "friendly competition" evolves between Germany and Poland over leading NATO 3.0 , one thing is certain, and it's that US-led creative energy diplomacy will likely shape the post-war European security architecture.

Reuters cited five unnamed sources to report that US Special Envoy for Russia Jared Kushner held talks with his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev about getting a US investor involved in the Nord Stream pipeline that still has one undamaged segment out of four after September 2022's terrorist attack. What makes this report credible despite the innate doubts that some skeptics might have is the context in which it was published that will now be briefly reviewed before elaborating more on the report itself.

The Atlantic reported in late September that Trump authorized his Special Envoy to Belarus John Coale to convince Putin to release "political prisoners" in exchange for sanctions relief following the arrangement that he reached with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. This shortly followed what The New Yorker reported in mid-September about how a European spy service caught wind that "Trump and people around him" are considering "reopening the Nord Stream 2 pipeline under American control".

A few days after that, the New York Times (NYT) reported in early October that "U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Now Involve an Oil Deal Tied to Trump Allies" regarding Lukoil's global assets, which Trump sanctioned a year ago. Those skeptics who might scoff that these reports are either fake news or a means of manipulating Russia into concessions without anything in return should know that Belarus just sent the US 30,000 tons of potash after the US lifted some sanctions and returned some frozen funds.

This follows Trump boasting about the "massive" potash deal that he and Lukashenko are negotiating, which prompted Lukashenko to propose that the US invest in a fertilizer plant in Belarus together with it and Russia. These fast-moving developments, both the US-Belarusian détente and the spree of reports about US-Russian resource deals, coincide with a NYT report that Putin is preparing to finally bring Ukraine to its knees after nearly five years through systematic infrastructure strikes over the winter.

This analysis here assessed that it's true and driven by Putin having reportedly been informed by his Finance Minister following talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that (at least significant) sanctions relief of the sort described above can only follow the end of the Ukrainian Conflict. The sooner that the conflict ends, the sooner that Russia can receive such relief for stimulating economic growth amidst the ongoing slowdown and establishing a resource-centric strategic partnership with the US.

The implications were earlier elaborated on here and here, but the Nord Stream dimension thereof that Reuters just reported is being discussed could restore Russia's dialogue with the EU's de facto German leader, thus paving the way for military de-escalation. The US' NATO 3.0 concept envisages European NATO leading Russia's containment, which could either worsen tensions if Germany's remilitarization poses a 1941-like threat or result in a new energy-driven modus vivendi under the US' supervision.

With a view towards best managing the post-war Russian-German relations that might soon rebound with none other than the US' approval, Poland could make the first move in improving ties with Russia by building upon its new "snowdrop diplomacy" with Belarus. Regardless of however the "friendly competition" between Germany and Poland over leading NATO 3.0 evolves, one thing is certain, and it's that US-led creative energy diplomacy will likely shape the post-war European security architecture.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 02:00

Jack Of All Trades

Zero Hedge -

Jack Of All Trades

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

At 9:40 at night, I walked out of the restaurant and looked down at my hands. They were stained with pigment - reds, pinks, and earthy browns worked into the cracks around my fingernails from making makeup.

Tins of lipstick and eyeshadow Mollie Engelhart made for her farm store. Courtesy of Mollie Engelhart

I had just finished making 200 tins of lipstick and eyeshadow for our farm store, the final task of the day. I felt that particular satisfaction that comes from looking at something that didn't exist a few hours earlier and knowing: I made that. Now, it was time to go back up the hill and put my children to bed.

As I walked, I started thinking about what else those hands had done that day.

My morning started with writing an article and doing homework with my 6-year-old. By 8 a.m., I was setting up for the pumpkin patch. I ordered food for an upcoming event, negotiated contracts, and worked through last-minute event details. I set up the arts-and-crafts booth and decoupaged a pumpkin as an example. I decorated the restaurant for fall.

I recorded a podcast, served customers, made lattes, covered someone's break in the kitchen, and cooked on the grill. I organized and unpacked things and spent an unreasonable amount of time searching for things I knew we owned but couldn't find.

A bull got out. We moved a refrigerator.

I squeezed in half an hour to work on the homeschool curriculum I am writing and on a children's coloring book. I made ice cream. I wanted to make popsicles, but the popsicles didn't make the cut. I set up tea-making and bath-salt-making stations.

Somewhere inside all of that were children who needed food, water, and love, a puppy who needed cleaning up after, and a ranch that continued being a ranch regardless of my to-do list.

At 9:40, there I was with pigment-stained hands, strangely satisfied by 200 little tins of homemade makeup. I wasn't thinking, look how much I accomplished. I was thinking about how completely unrelated almost everything I had done was.

Writer. Teacher. Event planner. Buyer. Contract negotiator. Crafter. Podcaster. Waitress. Barista. Line cook. Rancher. Curriculum writer. Ice-cream maker. Mother.

None of them fully describe me, and I am certainly not a master of most of them.

That's when an old phrase floated into my head: "Jack of all trades, master of none."

I had heard it my entire life, and I don't remember it ever being a compliment. It was almost a warning: Pick something. Specialize. Get really good at one thing.

Then, last year, I came across a version I had never heard: "Jack of all trades, master of none, though oftentimes better than master of one."

I thought, wait. Nobody ever told me the rest.

It turns out nobody had withheld it from me. The complimentary ending appears to be a modern addition, circulating online by at least 2005 and appearing on Wikipedia by 2006 as though it were the "full saying." The expression has roots stretching back to Shakespeare's world in the late 1500s and has been reworked over the centuries. Perhaps "though oftentimes better than master of one" is simply our century's contribution.

Strangely, I like that story better. Maybe somebody wasn't restoring an old proverb. Maybe they were restoring an old idea: There is real value in being able to do many things reasonably well.

Specialization has given us extraordinary things. I don't want someone who dabbles in brain surgery operating on my brain. There are places where mastery matters enormously. But I wonder whether, in celebrating specialization, we have slowly surrendered something else: ordinary human competence.

I think about my grandparents' generation, my parents' generation, my generation, and now my children. It isn't true of every family, but the general direction seems difficult to miss. With each generation, many mundane skills have become less necessary and consequently less common.

Not impressive skills. The little things.

Sewing on a button. Sharpening a knife. Making soup from whatever is left in the refrigerator. Growing something and knowing when to harvest it. Preserving food. Starting a fire. Changing a tire. Repairing something instead of replacing it. Using basic tools. Caring for a sick animal. Making bread. Entertaining a child without a screen. Sitting beside someone who is dying. Burying something you loved.

These aren't hobbies. For most of human history, they were simply life.

Our ancestors didn't necessarily learn these things because they were interested in self-sufficiency. They knew them because not knowing had consequences. When pants tore, you repaired them. When the garden produced too many tomatoes, you preserved them. When something broke, you tried to fix it.

Convenience has relieved us of enormous drudgery, and I am grateful for much of it. I don't romanticize scrubbing clothes against a washboard. I own a washing machine and am very happy about it.

But there is a difference between being freed from having to do something and losing the ability to do it.

Where is the balance between enjoying the extraordinary amenities of modern life and maintaining the skills necessary to be well-rounded, useful human beings?

I don't know.

Human beings have always traded, learned from specialists, and benefited from someone else being better at a particular task. But perhaps there is a threshold somewhere between "I don't have to do this myself" and "I couldn't do anything for myself if I had to."

We may have access to more information than anyone before us, yet become less practically capable. We can find instructions for almost anything in seconds, yet increasingly outsource the doing itself. How many pieces of our lives can we outsource before we lose something essential?

Perhaps that is why ranch life has changed me so profoundly. A ranch constantly hands you problems for which you are wildly underqualified. Something breaks. Something escapes. Something is born. Something won't start. Something leaks. Something needs to be moved and weighs 600 pounds. Customers are arriving in 20 minutes, and somewhere a child is asking about fractions.

There is rarely time to announce, "I'm not trained for this."

You figure it out.

Eventually, "I don't know how" stops being a conclusion and becomes the first sentence of a process. I ask somebody. I read. I watch. I try. I screw it up. I ask somebody better than me. I try again. Sometimes, I become good at it. Sometimes, I remain mediocre. Sometimes, I learn enough to realize this particular job really does require a master, and I call one.

Being a jack of all trades doesn't mean expertise is worthless. It teaches you not to confuse "I am not a master" with "I am incapable."

I think about this with my children. We ask children remarkably early what they want to "be" when they grow up, as though adulthood requires collapsing an entire human being into a noun: doctor, lawyer, farmer, engineer, artist.

Maybe we should also ask: What do you want to know how to do?

I want my children to grow something. Cook something. Fix something. Build something. Care for something. Make something beautiful. Earn money. Give something away. Comfort someone. Recognize when they need help. Fail without concluding that failure says something permanent about who they are.

Most of all, I want them to encounter something they have never done and think, I could probably learn.

That may be one of the most important forms of sovereignty there is. Capability is sovereignty, too. Every useful thing you know how to do gives you another small place in your life where helplessness doesn't get the final word.

Maybe that is what bothered me about "Jack of all trades, master of none." It assumes the highest purpose of learning is mastery. Sometimes, it isn't. Sometimes, knowing enough to feed someone, stop the leak, or keep the calf alive until morning is enough.

At 9:40 that night, my hands were stained with pigment. I wasn't a master cosmetic maker, teacher, crafter, barista, event planner, or refrigerator mover. The day had simply presented me with things that needed doing, and I had done as many as I could.

The popsicles would have to wait.

I don't know exactly where the balance lies between embracing conveniences that make our lives better and surrendering so much competence that we no longer know how to live without them. Maybe there isn't one universal line. But it is a question worth asking ourselves and worth asking as we raise the next generation.

Not only, what will you become a master of?

But also, what will you refuse to forget how to do?

Mollie Engelhart, regenerative farmer and rancher at Sovereignty Ranch, is committed to food sovereignty, soil regeneration, and educating on homesteading and self-sufficiency. She is the author of "Debunked by Nature": Debunk Everything You Thought You Knew About Food, Farming, and Freedom - a raw, riveting account of her journey from vegan chef and LA restaurateur to hands-in-the-dirt farmer, and how nature shattered her cultural programming.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/11/2026 - 23:30

Leftist Mob Politicizes Cornell "Rape" Case Despite Evidence Of False Accusations

Zero Hedge -

Leftist Mob Politicizes Cornell "Rape" Case Despite Evidence Of False Accusations

A clear pattern is emerging, and it's a dangerous one.  The political left has been systematically combing through any criminal or civil court cases which are gaining media traction and national attention, then hijacking those cases and turning them into vehicles for political gain.  

Their motive may simply be an effort to attach themselves to these events in order to steal the spotlight, or the agenda might be far more ugly.  From Luigi Mangione, to the Lindsay Clancy case, to the failed execution of Christa Pike and many more cases, leftists always seem to take the side of the villain.  These activist operations function in a "post-truth" environment where facts and evidence no longer matter. 

Their true goal may be to destroy the very integrity of the criminal process and jury trials in the US.  If every jury pool from now on is tainted by political motives, then no fair trial is possible and horrific criminals could escape punishment.  When leftists use the mantra "everything is political", they are not joking.  They see every aspect of society as a political battleground, even the courtroom and the jury box.

For progressives, politics simply means "power."  It's not about doing the right thing, it's not about being logical or practical, it's not even about the greater good; they only care about winning.

We saw this mentality during the Lindsay Clancy trial, in which a women who openly admitted to strangling her three tiny children on at least four separate occasions was held up by the woke mob as a heroic figure - A symbol of female victimhood and empowerment all wrapped into one person.  It seems like insanity, but this behavior is highly calculated and has far reaching repercussions for the future of American society. 

It doesn't matter that she committed the crime; progressives want the power to dictate who gets punished and who doesn't based on the political content of the crime.  The same scenario applies to the recent and bewildering resurgence of the October 2024 Cornell Rape Case.  

According to a civil lawsuit filed by “Jane Doe” (a then-20-year-old Cornell student and Tri-Delta sorority member) in September 2026, she went to a fraternity house that night after drinking heavily. She alleges that members of the fraternity gave her alcohol, marijuana, and ketamine, that she became incapacitated and unable to consent, and that she was sexually assaulted/raped by seven men over several hours.  

The incident was used as an ideological whip, an example "proving" that feminists were right all along about campus rape culture.  There was a problem, though.  The woman in question gave multiple conflicting statements which contradicted the rape allegations.  Numerous text messages also indicated that the encounter was consensual and that the woman willingly engaged in the drug use and sexual activity.   

No criminal charges were filed because the case did not meet the legal requirements for prosecution.  Jane Doe did not pursue any criminal or civil punishment until rumors spread across campus painting her in a negative light.  Suddenly, the consensual sex became "gang rape".      

Despite ample contrary evidence, Democrat politicians and activist groups are trying to dredge up the case once again as if it supports their feminist causes and "rape culture" theories.  After the civil lawsuit was filed in September 2026 and drew national attention, New York Governor Kathy Hochul appointed notoriously biased Attorney General Letitia James as a special prosecutor to take over the criminal inquiry. 

In other words, the leftists want to railroad the men involved.  Protesters have rallied at Cornell "in solidarity with Jane Doe" as if the university is somehow culpable for the incident.

Some direct texts from Jane Doe to two of the men involved in the event:

“...At the end of the day none of the sexual stuff was illegal and honestly i really like being w u and matt. So anything anyone has to say about the gamgbang [sic] is out of their jurisdiction...”

“I don’t think we should feel any shame for the part. our body our choice asf...”  

“Bro, everyone knows...my reputation is destroyed and i’m utterly ashamed.”  

It's important to understand that feminism calls for the complete abandonment of female accountability in favor of empowerment through shamelessness.  Women are not supposed to suffer consequences for their behavior, regardless of their culpability and lack of propriety, because "personal freedom" takes precedence over everything else.  When a woman is made to feel shame, this is treated as an assault on her freedom.  

Furthermore, feminism views regret as retroactive rape.  In other words, a woman can engage in consensual sex but if she regrets the encounter later, this is the same as the man raping her.  Consider the massive power dynamic this gives the feminist movement if they succeed in normalizing such thinking.  Women would be able to use rape allegations as a control mechanism against any man they sleep with who doesn't behave in a way they like months or years later. 

Hey, he made her feel regret, so, he has to pay the price.

The politicization of these cases could lead to catastrophic results for society.  Not only do these protests act as jury intimidation and a poisoning of the jury pool, they also reject all reason, logic and evidence for the sake of ideology.  The proper punishment of crime (or the exoneration of the accused through concrete evidence) is a fundamental pillar of any civilization.  The political left may be seeking to sabotage that pillar in yet another strategy to "burn the system to the ground." 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/11/2026 - 23:00

Judge Bars Deportation Of Illegal Immigrant Shot By ICE In New York

Zero Hedge -

Judge Bars Deportation Of Illegal Immigrant Shot By ICE In New York

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge barred the Trump administration from deporting a Dominican immigrant who was shot by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent during a targeted enforcement operation in New York.

On Oct. 9, U.S. District Judge Paul Oetken said in a two-page order that Oscar Bergal had filed a petition challenging his detention. The judge ruled that Bergal could not be removed from the United States without a court order.

Oetken also barred federal authorities from transferring Bergal to a facility located outside of New York State or New Jersey.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for comment and did not receive a response by the time of publication.

The DHS said on Oct. 9 that Bergal is an illegal immigrant from the Dominican Republic with prior criminal convictions for grand larceny and multiple arrests for assault, robbery, armed theft, criminal sale of narcotic drugs, and possession of stolen property.

Bergal was also allegedly associated with the violent prison and street gang Trinitarios, which was implicated in the 2025 killing of a Customs and Border Protection officer, DHS stated.

According to the department, ICE officers attempted to arrest Bergal at 4 p.m. ET in the Marble Hill neighborhood of the Bronx, New York, on Oct. 8. DHS said ICE agents used their vehicles to stop Bergal, but he allegedly refused to exit his car and smashed into two government vehicles.

ICE officers opened fire as Bergal allegedly drove toward them, striking him in the neck. DHS said he was taken to the hospital and later placed in a detention facility outside New York.

His five-year-old son was in the back seat at the time of the incident, according to police. The boy was physically unharmed.

"When dangerous illegal aliens are released back onto the streets by radical sanctuary politicians, our officers are forced to make arrests at large in the community in unpredictable and dangerous environments," DHS said in a post on X.

"Our officers should not have to risk their lives, and innocent Americans should not have to face unnecessary danger, because sanctuary politicians refuse to cooperate with federal law enforcement."

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin told Fox News on Oct. 9 that federal agents were unaware that a child was in the vehicle, adding that Bergal put his child in danger by refusing to comply.

"Oscar put his child at risk when he chose to accelerate, hit two federal vehicles, and also weaponize the vehicle, and move towards at an accelerated rate towards officers that were trying to apprehend him," Mullin said.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani criticized ICE over the incident, calling for it to be abolished and removed from the city.

"This is an unconscionable and incredibly serious situation," Mamdani said in a post on X.

"I have called the President; when we speak, I will demand that he ends all ICE enforcement actions in our city. I will not stand by while ICE agents terrorize our communities."

New York Governor Kathy Hochul said she was briefed on the shooting and expected federal authorities to provide a full update on the incident.

Jill McLaughlin and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/11/2026 - 17:30

Poll Finds 64 Percent Of Americans Say AI Is Developing Too Fast

Zero Hedge -

Poll Finds 64 Percent Of Americans Say AI Is Developing Too Fast

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

A new poll indicates that 64 percent of Americans believe artificial intelligence (AI) is developing "too fast."

The Associated Press-NORC Center poll released on Oct. 8 indicated that just 27 percent say the development is "about right," and less than 10 percent think it's moving "too slow."

Of the polled adults, more Democrats (76 percent) than Republicans (54 percent) think AI is moving too fast. However, 70 percent of those under 30 years old think the technology should be slowed, and 60 percent of those 60 years old and older think the same.

It comes amid growing concern over the technology's potential threat to humanity, which has led to industry leaders and politicians calling for a slowdown and more regulation.

President Donald Trump has dismissed calls for more regulation, saying the United States needs to maintain its edge over China in the AI race. Major AI companies recently signed a voluntary accord with the White House that calls for internal and external reviews.

According to the poll conducted Sept. 24 to 28, about half of respondents think the government's support is about promoting technological innovation, and a little fewer say they think it's about competition with China.

Meanwhile, 80 percent of Americans say it's "extremely" or "very" important for the United States to ensure AI stays under human control.

Recent months have seen several incidents of AI agents from major tech firms breaching websites of private companies, research institutions, and multiple government agencies.

Notably, ChatGPT developer OpenAI acknowledged in July that its AI agents broke out of a testing environment and hacked into Hugging Face, an open-source community for AI.

In September, OpenAI canceled the release of its latest model, GPT-6.1 Astra, slated for October, over safety concerns. It also postponed plans for its initial public offering this year.

Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have proposed a range of measures to regulate the technology, but none are likely to advance anytime soon with Congress in recess ahead of the midterms.

Confidence in politicians' handling of AI is low, with 23 percent trusting Democrats to do a better job and 21 percent favoring Republicans, while 39 percent trust neither party.

Mistrust of AI appears to have extended to the realm of politics, as very few adults are using AI as a source of information for the upcoming election. The poll indicated that only about 21 percent of respondents said they use or plan to use AI to gather information about a candidate or ballot issue.

Even fewer (12 percent) said they will use AI for information about how to vote, and only 10 percent said they would use it for information on voter registration.

Jacob Burg contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/11/2026 - 14:00

More School Cafeterias Are Getting A MAHA Makeover

Zero Hedge -

More School Cafeterias Are Getting A MAHA Makeover

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

In Cleveland, new students at several schools across the city were pleasantly surprised by their cafeteria last month.

A shiny new buffet counter with locally sourced produce and a variety of cold meats and eggs replaced packaged salads with wilted lettuce, bland-looking vegetables, and minimal protein. Cilantro-lime rice made with just five ingredients has also been a popular choice lately, said Robert Gorman, executive director of nutrition services for the Cleveland Metropolitan School District.

"We're getting back to the basics," he told The Epoch Times. "If there's a will, there's a way. If you want to serve locally, you can."

Public schools in Santa Fe, New Mexico, also have salad bars with local fruits and vegetables, plus beef from a nearby ranch included in the hamburgers, Frito pies, and Bolognese pasta sauce, said Diana Tarasiewicz, the district's student nutrition director.

Both districts received support from the Colorado-based Chef Ann Foundation, which works with school leaders to replace ultra-processed foods with whole ingredients.

The Make America Healthy Again federal Harvest to Hallways initiative, announced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Health and Human Services just ahead of the current semester, will allow these districts and thousands of others to improve school nutrition and connect with local farmers for years to come.

The bipartisan Scratch Cooked Meals for Students Act, meanwhile, might see action in the upcoming congressional session. The bill was referred to a Senate committee in late May. It would establish a pilot program for replacing heat-and-serve operations in school cafeterias with scratch-cooking methods.

At the state level, legislation related to restricting unhealthy ingredients or incentivizing partnerships with local farmers was proposed or passed in Alaska, California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Ultra-processed foods are often defined as those that are chemically manipulated with ingredients such as corn, soy, and wheat extracts to extend shelf life. Artificial ingredients are used to replace the vitamins and minerals that are lost as a result of processing and packaging.

Ultra-processed foods are less filling yet contain more calories than minimally processed foods, leading consumers to eat faster and consume more.

Collectively, these laws and incentives could bring a sea change for school nutrition, said Lori Nelson, the Chef Ann Foundation's executive director of school food operations.

"A key fact: there are six times more school cafeterias than there are McDonald's," she told The Epoch Times.

School food service leaders say overhauling heat-and-serve operations that have been the norm for decades, retraining cafeteria staff, and changing long-established procurement procedures to increase business with local producers is no easy task with narrow reimbursement margins; the USDA rate is about $4.60 per meal.

Salad bars, for example, prompt more concerns over cleanliness and require staff to watch the students.

"You need point-of-sale staff to make sure the kids don't just take a dozen eggs," Gorman said.

Even though Ohio, like other northern states, has a short growing season, there are creative ways to buy fresh foods from local producers. Gorman contracts with hydroponic lettuce growers and nearby bakers who make bagels and pizza dough.

New Mexico, by contrast, starts the school year just as local farmers are harvesting apricots, peaches, and beans, Tarasiewicz said.

"The month of August is the month of abundance for us," she said.

Both districts have reported less food waste since scratch cooking operations were ramped up. Moreover, Santa Fe has a district-wide composting system where discarded food is used for soil improvements. This also provides a science lesson for younger students, Tarasiewicz said.

Gorman said he is pleased with the reduced amount of packaging. The paper wraps previously used for grab-and-go hot sandwiches and the plastic salad containers cost the district several thousand dollars over the course of a school year.

It will take more than just guidance, money, and recipes to improve school nutrition practices at a mass scale, Nelson said.

Districts should provide adequate time and arrangements for children to eat their lunch, she said. Lunch period requirements are virtually nonexistent, and ideally kids should have recess before they eat.

"They get the sillies out and then go to lunch hungry, eat with a purpose, and get back to schoolwork," Nelson said. "If you can give 30 minutes for lunch, you should."

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/11/2026 - 13:00

Nine Dead, Including Two Children, In Pennsylvania Family Mass Shooting

Zero Hedge -

Nine Dead, Including Two Children, In Pennsylvania Family Mass Shooting

A shooting in Erie, Pennsylvania, on Friday left nine people dead, including two small children, a pregnant woman and the man authorities believe was responsible, according to USA Today. Police say the violence appears to have unfolded largely within a single family, although the circumstances leading up to the killings remain unclear.

The incident occurred October 9 at a house on Perry Street, where police were alerted to gunfire shortly before 5 p.m. Officers arriving at the property discovered two women, ages 37 and 51, who had been shot outside. A subsequent search of the residence revealed seven more bodies, including that of the suspected attacker.

USA Today writes that the victims inside included a 1-year-old girl, a 5-year-old boy, two young men ages 19 and 21, and two women ages 24 and 44. One of the deceased was eight months pregnant. Investigators determined that eight of those killed were members of the same extended family, while the remaining victim was a family acquaintance.

Police identified the suspected attacker as a 45-year-old man who was found upstairs with a legally registered firearm. Evidence initially suggested he had taken his own life after the killings. One of the nine deceased was transported to a hospital before being pronounced dead.

Questions surrounding the police response prompted officials to clarify the timeline. Erie Police Chief Rick Lorah said officers reached the address within roughly three minutes of the initial gunfire alert but encountered a secured house with covered windows and no audible signs of violence continuing inside. Authorities maintain that everyone had already been shot before officers reached the scene and that the response did not involve a prolonged confrontation with the gunman.

Detectives are now attempting to reconstruct the events preceding the shooting through witness interviews, cellphone evidence and the suspect's prior interactions with law enforcement. Lorah indicated that psychological issues were among the possibilities being considered, but stressed that no explanation for the killings had been confirmed. He also described the crime scene as the worst he had witnessed in his policing career.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro pledged assistance to the city and expressed sympathy for those affected. Local officials are arranging mental health resources and other services for surviving relatives and residents shaken by the tragedy.

As of Saturday afternoon, authorities were still working to formally confirm the victims' identities and had not publicly released their names.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/11/2026 - 12:30

US Seizes 7 Domains Used By China-Linked Hackers To Target Critical Infrastructure

Zero Hedge -

US Seizes 7 Domains Used By China-Linked Hackers To Target Critical Infrastructure

Authored by Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department and FBI announced on Oct. 8 that they had seized seven internet domains used by Chinese state-linked hackers to target critical infrastructure and other computer networks in the United States and overseas.

A hacker uses his computer in Dongguan, China's southern Guangdong Province, on Aug. 4, 2020. Nicolas Asfouri/AFP via Getty Images

The seizures targeted two hacking tools allegedly operated by cyber actors working for Integrity Technology Group, a Beijing-based cybersecurity company with Chinese regime contracts.

The tools were used to identify security weaknesses, gain unauthorized access to computer networks, and steal information, according to the Justice Department.

In a joint cybersecurity advisory released the same day, U.S. and allied agencies warned that Chinese regime-linked hackers enabled by Integrity Tech had combined automated scanning, large networks of compromised devices, and targeted intrusions to steal sensitive information from organizations worldwide, including U.S. critical infrastructure operators.

A federal magistrate judge in Pennsylvania approved the seizure warrant on Oct. 6, authorizing the domains to be redirected to FBI-controlled servers.

The Justice Department has not announced criminal charges against Integrity Tech or identified individual defendants in connection with the seizures.

The operation marks the second public U.S. disruption of Integrity Tech's hacking infrastructure in two years.

In September 2024, the FBI dismantled a network of more than 200,000 infected internet-connected devices, including home routers and cameras, that investigators said were used to conduct cyber operations.

However, a newly unsealed FBI affidavit indicates that tools linked to Integrity Tech remained accessible afterward.

Investigators found a server hosting one hacking tool in March 2026 and confirmed that a login page for another was still accessible in September.

"The PRC relies on contractor and enabling companies to expand the reach and scale of its malicious cyber activity," said Brett Leatherman, assistant director of the FBI's Cyber Division, referring to the People's Republic of China.

"By exposing and disrupting these enablers, we make it harder for the PRC to target American networks and infrastructure."

US Power Company, Foreign Airports Targeted

According to the affidavit, one hacking tool, called Microscan, searched computer networks for weaknesses that hackers could later exploit.

Investigators identified scanning activity involving a South Carolina power company, airports in Japan and Poland, a multinational nonprofit organization, and Taiwanese companies operating in the natural gas and electricity industries.

Scanning does not necessarily mean hackers gained access to a network. The court filings do not establish that the power company, airports, or energy companies were successfully breached.

However, investigators said two Taiwanese universities were successfully hacked after their networks had been scanned.

A second tool, FishHub, was used in targeted phishing operations designed to trick victims into opening malicious content.

After an initial breach, it could deliver additional software that allowed hackers to control computers remotely, search for files, and send stolen information to servers under their control.

The Justice Department said approximately 20 Taiwanese universities were confirmed victims of FishHub activity.

Five of the seized domains were used to deliver the malicious software.

Chinese Regime Contractor

Integrity Tech was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in January 2025 over its role in cyber operations attributed to Chinese state-sponsored hackers.

At the time, the department said the company had ties to China's Ministry of State Security, the country's principal civilian intelligence agency, and provided services to state-security and public-security bureaus.

The department said hackers working for Integrity Tech operated at the Chinese regime's direction.

The Oct. 8 advisory describes Integrity Tech as a profit-making company whose employees acquire or develop hacking tools for use and sale, provide infrastructure supporting cyberattacks, and compromise networks worldwide.

The agencies said those services contribute to a larger Chinese cyber ecosystem that seeks to steal sensitive information from victims around the world.

Integrity Tech is publicly traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange under stock code 688244.

In a January 2025 disclosure, the company rejected earlier U.S. allegations, saying they lacked a factual basis. It maintained that it operated legally and had no subsidiaries, business operations, or assets in the United States.

The Epoch Times contacted Integrity Tech, the FBI, and the Justice Department for comment but received no responses before publication.

Asked about the seizures at an Oct. 9 press briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Beijing opposed hacking and rejected what she described as politically motivated misinformation.

She accused Washington of double standards and political manipulation but did not directly address the allegations against Integrity Tech.

The United Kingdom also sanctioned Integrity Tech in December 2025 over its alleged involvement in cyber operations targeting British public-sector systems.

Agencies Warn of Worldwide Data Theft

The joint advisory, issued by the FBI, National Security Agency, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, and authorities from six other countries, identified U.S. targets across government services, critical manufacturing, health care, and information technology.

The hackers also targeted American law-enforcement agencies, educational institutions, and religious organizations, along with entities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and elsewhere in North America.

The agencies described the activity as extending beyond the China-backed cyber espionage group Flax Typhoon to operations also tracked under the names Ethereal Panda and Red Juliett, while cautioning that such labels do not necessarily correspond to identical groups or operations.

The advisory warned that hackers used a combination of mass scanning and targeted attacks to enter computer networks, steal account credentials, maintain unauthorized access, and remove sensitive files and emails.

Some of the malicious software was disguised as legitimate Windows programs.

Other tools exploited weaknesses in Microsoft email services or enabled attackers to maintain remote access while making their activity harder to detect.

The FBI identified victims of email theft among government agencies, law-enforcement organizations, health care systems, and religious institutions in Southeast Asia.

In some instances, access to the stolen information was restricted to internet addresses in Xiamen, China.

Investigators also discovered a custom online application maintained by the hackers that allowed third parties to retrieve stolen emails from specific accounts, according to the advisory.

The agencies urged government bodies and critical infrastructure operators to search their networks for evidence of compromise, promptly fix known security weaknesses, disable unnecessary services, and strengthen account protections.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/11/2026 - 12:00

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