Individual Economists

July Jobs Shock: US Lost 23K Workers, Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemp Rate Drops To 4.1%

Zero Hedge -

July Jobs Shock: US Lost 23K Workers, Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemp Rate Drops To 4.1%

Ahead of today's jobs report, in our payrolls preview we warned that "July Has Emerged As A Very Poor Month For Jobs" and boy were we right: moments ago the BLS reported that in July, the US labor force shrank by a whopping 23K, sharply lower from a downward revised 20K in June (from 57K), and the worst print since the negative 156K in February.

As noted above, the -23K print was below all estimates...

... and was a 5-sigma miss to estimates...

... as the 80K median estimate was missed by more than 100K.

And here come the Biden admin tricks of massive prior revisions: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to  +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported

Yet despite the dismal Establishment Survey print, the unemployment rate actually declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, which was as a result of the number of Unemployed workers declining by 178K, more than the decline in Employed workers, which shrank by just 87K.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for teenagers (12.1%) and people who are Hispanic (4.6%) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult  women (3.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (6.3 percent), or Asian (4.0  percent) showed little change over the month.

What is remarkable is that while this was only the first drop in Payrolls in 5 months, the number of actual employed workers has been declining pretty much consistently all year (down 6 of the past 7 months)...

... and in July was the lowest US employment going back almost two years.

Part and parcel with the sudden chill in the labor market was the big miss in average hourly earnings, which rose just 0.1% MoM (below estimates of 0.3% and below last month's 0.3% increase), which in turn translated into a 3.2% annual increase, also far below the 3.5% median estimate.

Some more details on the composition of the labor market from the latest jobs report: 

  • Among the unemployed, the number of people on temporary layoff increased by 153,000 to 921,000 in July. The number of permanent job losers changed little at 1.7 million. 
  • In July, the number of people jobless less than 5 weeks edged down to 2.0 million and is down by 344,000 over the year. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) edged down over the month to 1.8 million but changed little over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.5 percent of all unemployed people in July. 
  • Both the labor force participation rate, at 61.4 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.9 percent, changed little in July. Since January, the labor force participation rate declined by 0.7 percentage point, and the employment-population ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage point. 
  • The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.8 million in July. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
  • In July, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 5.9 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
  • Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in July. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was essentially unchanged in July at 476,000. 

And another disappointing fact when looking below the surface: the number of part-time jobs rose by 138K and is once again approaching a record high, while full-time jobs dropped again by 106K, and is down 6 of the past 7 months.

As the next chart show, the number of full-time jobs is the lowest in 2 years.

Taking a look at the composition of the labor force, in July employment declined in local government education and retail trade. Employment continued to trend up in health care. Some more details: 

  • Employment in local government education declined by 50,000 in July, after showing little net change over the prior 12 months.
  • Retail trade lost 19,000 jobs in July. Employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-21,000) and in gasoline stations and fuel dealers (-5,000). Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers added 10,000 jobs. Retail trade employment had shown little net change over the prior 12 months. 
  • Employment in financial activities continued to trend down in July (-14,000), reflecting losses in credit intermediation and related activities (-9,000) and insurance carriers and related activities (-7,000). Financial activities employment is down by 121,000 since a recent peak in May 2025. 
  • In July, employment in health care continued its upward trend (+22,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+36,000). Employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up over the month (+18,000). 
In other words, there were two key drivers for today's big jobs drop:
  1. Leisure and Hospitality jobs -40K (of which -26.1K restaurant workers and -16.1K performing arts, sports, amusement and recreation) which was mostly World Cup driven 
  2. Local government jobs, entirely due to education (-50K), i.e. vacation.

And visually:

Commenting on the report, WSJ Nick Timiraos concludes that it was a "messy one", to wit: 

The July employment report will be a messy one for the Federal Reserve to read. New evidence the labor market is not reaccelerating could take some of the edge off the case for raising rates next month, but this is all still subject to better inflation data.

Officials held rates steady last week but three of 12 officials voted for a rate increase. A declining unemployment rate will continue to keep the focus on inflation data. 

Whether price pressures are building or fading will determine whether more officials conclude that they can no longer maintain their forecast for inflation to return to their target with rates remaining at the current setting. A mild inflation report would reinforce the case for holding (because two cool months in a row start to look like a trend rather than noise). A firm one would put the forecast back in doubt and give the dissenters a fourth vote to look for.

To summarize, this was a mostly disappointing report, yet one driven by one-time factors (teachers, world cup) while the unemployment rate dropped due to a quirk in the calculation. Does this mean that no Fed hikes are coming? While the market is suddenly much more confident that a September rate hike is out of the picture, it is likely that Warsh will simply wait for a less noisy report before making a decision. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:55

Meta Ordered To Pay $567 Million In New Mexico For Children's Mental Health Fund

Zero Hedge -

Meta Ordered To Pay $567 Million In New Mexico For Children's Mental Health Fund

A New Mexico state judge on Aug. 6 ordered Meta to pay $567 million into a fund dedicated to remedying the harm caused to children’s mental health by the company’s social media platforms.

Meta is the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

State judge Bryan Biedscheid said in a 68-page order that most of the total youth mental health fund, or $420 million, would go toward treatment services for children harmed by social media.

The remainder of the fund would be directed toward awareness and prevention, screening and assessment, referrals and coordination, and implementation, according to the order.

“The Court finds that the weight of the evidence presented demonstrates that Meta’s platforms are a cause of and substantial contributing factor to the youth mental health crisis in New Mexico,” the judge wrote.

Furthermore, as Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, in his ruling, Biedscheid ordered the company to delete the accounts of users under 13, along with all personal information collected from those accounts, and simplify the steps for reporting underage users.

Meta was also ordered to disable push notifications on its platforms for users under 18 between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m. on all days, and from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. on school days during the academic year.

The company is also required to implement mandatory usage time limits for those accounts and hide, by default, all like counts on their content unless a parent or guardian authorizes a change to the default setting.

New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torrez hailed the ruling as a victory for parents and children, saying that youngsters deserve to have a safer environment online.

“This case has always been about protecting children, standing up for families, and making sure that one of the world’s largest technology companies cannot profit from practices that endanger young people without consequence,” Torrez said in a statement.

Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said in a post on X that the company disagreed with the ruling and planned to appeal, noting that Meta had been working to remove bad actors and harmful content from its platforms.

“We remain confident in our record of protecting teens online and will continue to defend ourselves against claims that misrepresent the facts,” Stone said.

The latest penalty comes on top of the $375 million fines that a New Mexico jury imposed on Meta in March for violating the state’s Unfair Practices Act by failing to disclose the potential risks of its social media platforms to children.

New Mexico sued Meta in December 2023, alleging that the company’s social media platforms served as a “breeding ground” for predators targeting children for human trafficking, sexual image distribution, grooming, and solicitation.

Meta denied the allegations, saying at the time that it uses advanced technology to root out bad actors and employs child safety experts. The company also said that it shares information and tools with other companies and law enforcement, including state attorneys general, to help identify predators.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:40

Wall Street Crowns First Solar As Clear Winner After Trump's Polysilicon Tariffs Create "Structural Floor" For Industry

Zero Hedge -

Wall Street Crowns First Solar As Clear Winner After Trump's Polysilicon Tariffs Create "Structural Floor" For Industry

Solar stocks are shining in premarket trading in New York after the Trump administration announced a new 15% tariff and a price floor on imports of polysilicon derivatives, including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells, and solar modules. The move is intended to secure the domestic solar supply chain after years of cheap Chinese panels flooding the country, making it uneconomical for domestic manufacturers to compete.

"Polysilicon is the base material underpinning the security of America's semiconductor and solar-power supply chains. Yet for decades, America has allowed foreign countries to weaken United States producers in the polysilicon sector ‑- eroding our economic and national security. Today, I am taking action to put a stop to these practices and revitalize the United States polysilicon sector," President Trump wrote in an overnight executive order.

The Trump administration's order is less a conventional tariff increase and more of a reset of the US solar-module pricing regime. The new framework, combining a 15% tariff with minimum import prices, could lift utility-scale module prices into the low-to-mid 40-cent-per-watt range from roughly 30 cents.

Analysts from several desks, including BMO Capital Markets, Truist Securities, Citi, and others, point to First Solar as the clear winner.

"We expect the immediate market reaction to favor FSLR given enhanced long-term pricing power and terminal value implications, while utility solar-exposed names including NXT, ARRY, SHLS and FLNC could face near-term pressure as investors reassess project economics and deployment costs," BMO analyst Ameet Thakkar wrote.

Thakkar noted, "In this report we analyze the structure and implementation of the new tariff framework, the implications for module pricing and domestic manufacturing economics, potential upside to FSLR valuation and ASPs, the 120-day implementation window, and our continued constructive view on NXT despite likely near-term volatility."

Moses Sutton at BNP Paribas outlined FSLR as the "biggest, long-awaited winner" and highlighted how a new "structural 'floor' for industry" is being created.

What other desks are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Citi

  • Analyst Vikram Bagri notes that the polysilicon tariffs are largely in line with expectations and sees upside for First Solar
  • "For FSLR, the benefits are a minimum import price for poly/cells/ingots/wafers/modules, which may be adjusted at Commerce's discretion to reflect market conditions, a 15% ad valorem on downstream poly derivatives, application to warehoused inventory plus anti-stockpiling provisions"
  • Notes that countries that adopt their own minimum import price may be able to claim favorable treatment for their exports to the US, which would be negative for US firms

Truist Securities

  • Analyst Christopher Souther sees First Solar as the biggest beneficiary of the tariffs and notes that the company's module price is below the minimum import price
  • "In our view, this further reinforces First Solar's competitive moat, as the company already benefits from a US-based manufacturing footprint, Section 45X tax credits, and existing trade protections"
  • Notes that the exemption paths for US module manufacturers may reduce the benefit for First Solar in out years

Barclays

  • Analyst Christine Cho sees the polysilicon tariffs raising the cost of imported modules to around $0.44 per watt
  • "The Section 232 outcome is more positive for FSLR than we and the Street were expecting and would seem to support ASPs to move somewhere in the low to mid $0.40/w range"

In premarket trading, FSLR is up 4%, Enphase Energy +2%, Array Technologies +2%, SolarEdge Technologies +2%, and T1 Energy +6%. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is up nearly 3%. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:10

Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem...

Zero Hedge -

Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem...

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Normally, you can find some parts of the job report that “fight” against the headline. That somewhere in the details is a potentially different narrative.

Maybe it’s because I’m lazy on a summer Friday, but difficult to see what it is in this report.

But let’s start with the most important point

Instead of worrying about Warsh, what he did or didn’t say, how often he might or might not say things, to who he may or may not speak to, maybe we should worry about making decisions based on garbage data?

As you know, I’ve argued for years that it seems insane that in this day and age, where we have real time data on almost every aspect of our lives, we are content to kind of stick a finger in the air, and take a wild stab at estimating jobs. I think the data source task force is the most important (and potentially useful thing Warsh has created). The data task force is too limited in scope, if anything.

Establishment headline is -23k. Estimate was 80k.

Revisions for past two months were -103k! Maybe the estimate would not have been for 80k, if the initial reports for the prior months reflected reality and didn’t need to be revised lower?

Not sure this is “good” news for the workers, but wage growth was anemic (even as the renewed fighting in the Middle East is pushing up the price of energy products).

The unemployment rate has dropped from 4.3% to 4.1% in the past two months. On the surface, maybe that is good. But the unemployment rate is based on the household survey which had a loss of 87k this month, which is “better” than last month’s loss of 507k jobs. The 4 month total number of jobs in the household survey is month than 600,000 lost jobs! The unemployment rate is only lower because the participation rate has dropped from 61.8% to 61.4% in two months (let’s not forget, this is occurring with record cap ex on data center/AI build).

Okay, now my “favorite” the birth/death model. I will admit I’m not sure how the seasonally adjusted birth/death model translates into a number of jobs in the establishment survey, but this “model” showed 235k jobs added by new businesses being formed. Maybe companies are being formed to take advantage of the AI/Data Center spend. It is in line with last July’s birth/death adjustment, so maybe it didn’t impact things. But I always struggle when “plugs” or “models” seem to be bigger than the actual numbers.

Honestly, I have no idea if today’s numbers are the aberration or whether it was what was originally reported, but that is the point!

How are we making decisions based on data that seems to be a wild guess (apologies to wild guesses)?

Sure, if there is no way to get better, more accurate, timely data, then we’d have to live with it. We had to live with carrier pigeons at one time.

I find it difficult to believe that a nation that put astronauts on the moon, cannot figure out a better way to calculate data that is so crucial to decision making!

So, yes, Houston, we have a problem, but the bigger problem isn’t today’s numbers, it is that we don’t really know what numbers are correct or not!

On the other hand, my view that we don’t see a hike this year looks better today, than it did a week ago (and that is with no “deal” in Iran, which any deal, will also help).

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:40

Islamic Society Sues City Over Rejection Of Mosque Proposal

Zero Hedge -

Islamic Society Sues City Over Rejection Of Mosque Proposal

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The Islamic Society of Tulsa has filed a federal lawsuit against the City of Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, and four individual city council members after the city denied its request to build a mosque and Islamic community center.

The suit, which was filed on Aug. 3, alleges the denial violated the U.S. Constitution, the federal Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act, and Oklahoma law by discriminating against Muslims.

The city of Broken Arrow said in an email to The Epoch Times that it does not comment on lawsuits. The city acknowledged on July 28 that the U.S. Department of Justice had started an investigation into the matter.

“The City Council and Administration are fully engaged with the DOJ in its investigation,” the city stated, adding it would have no further comment.

The DOJ’s Civil Rights Division is investigating whether Broken Arrow violated the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act after denying the rezoning application for the Islamic Society of Tulsa.

According to the complaint, the Islamic Society of Tulsa bought about 15 acres of land in Broken Arrow in 2014 with the intention of building a mosque, a community center, and a small commercial development.

City planning staff concluded the proposal complied with the city’s comprehensive plan and recommended approval. The Broken Arrow Planning Commission also voted to recommend approval after a lengthy public hearing.

The lawsuit claims the proposal was rejected by the City Council after “a wave of bigoted opposition from members of the community and local politicians.”

Despite recommendations from city staff and the Planning Commission, the City Council voted 4–1 on Jan. 12 to deny both the rezoning request and the conditional use permit.

The lawsuit further alleges the city approved similar rezoning and permitting requests for Christian churches and commercial developments while allowing those applicants to address traffic and engineering issues later in the approval process.

The complaint seeks a court order allowing the project to proceed, a declaration that the city’s actions were unlawful, and monetary damages including attorneys’ fees.

It also notes the DOJ’s investigation into whether the city violated federal religious land-use protections.

Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond is asking the Trump administration to halt the DOJ investigation.

In a letter to President Donald Trump and acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, Drummond called the investigation “federal overreach” and said land-use decisions should be left to state and local officials.

Drummond also asked the DOJ to withdraw requests for records involving private citizens, require senior-level approval for any further investigative steps, and coordinate with the Oklahoma Attorney General’s Office before taking additional action against Oklahoma municipalities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:20

Bonds & Bullion Jump, Dollar Dumps As Rate-Hike Odds Slump After Payrolls Miss

Zero Hedge -

Bonds & Bullion Jump, Dollar Dumps As Rate-Hike Odds Slump After Payrolls Miss

As we noted in our preview, today's payrolls print was indeed "bad news is good news" as the surprise five-sigma miss (-23k) on payrolls (albeit with a drop in the unemployment rate) sent rate-hike odds reeling lower...

History doesn’t repeat, but sometimes it rhymes. For the third time in as many years, July jobs data saw a mid-summer loss of momentum. While incoming inflation data will be the ultimate arbiter, slowing jobs growth helps support a September hold,” says Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

That helped smash Treasury yields lower, led by the short-end...

...which in turn crushed the dollar...

...lifting gold above $4350...

Some good news for Bessent, JPY is strengthening...

Stocks are also soaring, with Nasdaq leading the way...

Admittedly, as JPMorgan's Feroli flagged, technical effects such unwinding of World Cup-related hiring could have driven the softer payroll print...

Jeffrey Rosenberg, a portfolio manager at BlackRock, says on Bloomberg TV, “I’d be hesitant to just write this report off.”

He says that the decline in the unemployment rate essentially reflects a drop in the supply side of the labor market. 

... but for now, the panic among the Fed whisperers that Warsh has unleashed more uncertainty (and is driving up the term premium) is now a back story as attention shifts from inflation back to growth.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:05

Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch

Zero Hedge -

Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, began the week by telling Bloomberg TV that the global diesel-supply crunch is "what keeps her up at night." She followed up Wednesday with a client note warning that European natural gas storage levels are also lagging the seasonal average ahead of the winter heating period.

Benchmark TTF futures have fallen 7% this week to about 54 euros per megawatt-hour, but Dart maintained her 60-euro balance-of-third-quarter forecast. She noted that Northwest European LNG imports missed July expectations by 2.1 million tons on an annualized basis, leaving storage just 43% full at month-end versus the 45.5% projected.

The latest Bloomberg data shows that Europe's NatGas storage is about 57.87% full, roughly 18 percentage points below the 2009–25 average.

"Specifically, the July miss in European LNG imports (and the resulting miss in storage fill) vs our expectations suggest that European gas storage still has some catching up to do, while LNG supply availability remains uncertain," Dart wrote in the note.

Dart continued, emphasizing that Europe must accelerate NatGas injections to reach her 67% storage target by the end of October. Higher potential Qatari exports, weaker Asian spot demand and reduced Egyptian imports could free additional cargoes for Europe, though an early drop in TTF prices risks redirecting LNG back toward Asia.

Dart warned that if Gulf energy exports recover only gradually, December TTF prices may need to exceed 100 euros to curb Asian demand. A faster reopening of the Hormuz maritime chokepoint could push prices to 40 euros.

Dart continued:

On net, we still see risks to our winter TTF price forecast skewed to the upside. In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, we estimate that Dec26 TTF would likely need to move above 100 EUR/MWh, 110% above our 50 EUR/MWh base case, to significantly discourage Asia LNG demand. In contrast, we estimate that a faster-than-expected ramp of Hormuz flows would allow TTF to sell off back in line with the coal-to-gas switching threshold of 40 EUR/MWh, 20% below our current Dec26 TTF price base case.

Putting it all together, if disruptions in the Hormuz persist, Europe could enter winter with NatGas and diesel inventories well below seasonal norms, setting the stage for another surge in energy prices.

Professional subscribers can read more NatGas notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:55

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan Sign Islamic NATO-Style Defense Pact Amid Iran War

Zero Hedge -

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan Sign Islamic NATO-Style Defense Pact Amid Iran War

On Friday Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a major defense agreement as leaders gathered in the city of Makkah, Saudi Arabia. It seeks to strengthen joint deterrence and expanding defense cooperation, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

It is essentially a NATO-style agreement for the 'Muslim world' - given that it stipulates and formalizes that an armed attack on any of the countries will be treated as an attack against all of them.

Formally called the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, it "reflects the three nations’ commitment to bolstering their collective security and promoting peace, security and stability in the region and the wider world," SPA reported.

The combined estimated population of these Muslim-majority countries is 380 million people, or according to the high estimates... approaching 400 million.

Al Jazeera comments on the significance of the historic pact as follows:

This is more than a diplomatic get-together and the signing of an agreement.

This essentially puts three of the largest Muslim populations together on the roadmap for joint peace, for deterring any act of aggression against them, for making sure that they are in tune with each other when it comes to intelligence sharing, gathering all of the information that is required, and also enhancing cooperation in all sorts of spheres – whether it’s energy, defence expenditure or manufacturing, among others.

Pakistan brings with it, obviously, its nuclear arsenal, battle-hardened military, and munitions it has been supplying. Turkiye, with its advanced drone and munitions systems, is a NATO member, combined with the economic power of Saudi Arabia.

The three of them combined now present a force that will take this region towards a different security architecture than the one in place over the last few decades, especially in the wake of the Iran war.

Indeed this further formalizes Pakistan's nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia, which lacks atomic weapons. Turkey does not have its own nukes either, but plays host to US nuclear weapons as part of NATO. Turkey maintains the second-largest military within the NATO alliance, behind the United States.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already have a bilateral defense pact, somewhat recently inked, which has lately seen Islamabad deploy 8,000 troops, a ​squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi kingdom has lately been subject of sporadic 'retaliatory' attacks from Iran in the context of the war, and has earlier even responded by launching numerous unpublicized strikes on Iran.

And so already on the inking of the historic Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, one of the signatories finds itself (unwillingly) on the front lines of a conflict - given it also plays host to American forces - though isn't necessarily a key, direct participant in it. The Saudis have thus far relied largely on US defenses to protect themselves.

Turkey has opposed Trump's Operation Epic Fury, and is an avowed enemy of Israel - and so this pact will only serve to further distance Saudi Arabia from entering the Abrahama Accords and establishing lasing normalization with Israel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:35

3 Mistakes You’re Probably Making With Your Investments

The Big Picture -

3 Mistakes You’re Probably Making With Your Investments
The book “How Not to Invest” highlights the big things investors get wrong.
Kathleen Coxwell
Money Talk, July 3, 2025

 

 

When it comes to investing, sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make.

In “How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behavior That Destroy Wealth — and How to Avoid Them,” financial strategist Barry Ritholtz flips the script on traditional investment advice, focusing on avoiding common pitfalls rather than chasing flashy strategies.

His core message? Successful investing is often about discipline, patience, and steering clear of your own worst instincts. The premise of this book is that investing isn’t so much about what you do right; it is more about avoiding mistakes.

Barry Ritholtz, a Highly Respected Voice

Barry Ritholtz is one of the most respected voices in the world of finance, known for his no-nonsense approach to investing and his ability to cut through market hype. He is the co-founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a firm that emphasizes evidence-based investing and long-term financial planning.

In addition to managing billions in client assets, Ritholtz is a prolific writer and commentator. He has published thousands of columns on investing for the Washington Post, Bloomberg, and The Street, plus more than 43,000 posts on his excellent blog, The Big Picture.

Additionally, he hosts the popular Bloomberg podcast “Masters in Business,” where he interviews top minds in finance, economics, and business.

What sets Ritholtz apart is his deep understanding of behavioral finance — how our emotions and cognitive biases influence investment decisions. “How Not to Invest” distills decades of research and experience into a simple, powerful message: the best investors are the ones who learn what not to do.

Bad Ideas, Bad Numbers, Bad Behavior, and Good Advice

Ritholtz organizes “How Not to Invest” into four clear and compelling sections: Bad Ideas, Bad Numbers, Bad Behavior, and Good Advice.

Each part tackles a different set of investing missteps that can quietly derail your financial success.

In Bad Ideas, Ritholtz explores the seductive but flawed strategies that often lead investors astray. Bad Numbers dives into the misuse of data, showing how misleading stats and poor assumptions can distort decision-making. Bad Behavior highlights the psychological traps — like fear, greed, and overconfidence — that sabotage even the smartest investors. Finally, in Good Advice, he shares time-tested principles and habits that actually work.

Together, these sections offer a roadmap not just for avoiding mistakes but for becoming a more grounded, thoughtful investor.

Here are three takeaways from “How Not to Invest.”

Bad Idea: Following the Emotional Ups and Downs of the Financial Media

One of the most dangerous habits for investors? Taking cues from the financial media. In “How Not to Invest,” Ritholtz warns that the media isn’t designed to help you build wealth. It’s designed to grab your attention. Headlines are crafted to stir emotion, amplify fear, or promise quick riches, not to offer thoughtful, long-term investment guidance.

Ritholtz argues that reacting to news cycles — whether it’s market crashes, political shifts, or hot stock picks — is a fast track to bad decisions. The media thrives on urgency, but good investing thrives on patience. When you chase breaking news or follow talking heads with bold predictions, you’re more likely to trade impulsively, time the market poorly, or fall for trends that fizzle out.

What to do instead: Ritholtz advises tuning out the noise and tuning into your own financial plan — one grounded in evidence, tailored to your goals, and resilient to the hype machine. After all, the best investment advice is rarely delivered in real-time on cable news.

This is an excellent argument for the Boldin Retirement Planner, arguably the most complete financial planning tool available online, where you are in complete control of your own financial future.

Bad Numbers: Economic Innumeracy

Economic innumeracy refers to the widespread inability to understand, interpret, or critically evaluate economic and financial numbers. It’s not just about poor math skills; it’s about misunderstanding how numbers apply to real-world economic decisions.

People who are economically innumerate might: Confuse nominal and real returns, ignoring inflation Misjudge the impact of compound interest (both how powerful it is and how slow it starts) Be swayed by cherry-picked statistics or misleading graphs Take precise predictions as fact, rather than estimates with uncertainty Misinterpret economic indicators like GDP, unemployment rates, or CPI React emotionally to big-sounding numbers without context (e.g., “$1 trillion in debt!” vs. “debt as a % of GDP”)

Ritholtz highlights economic innumeracy as a core problem in “How Not to Invest” because it leads people to make poor financial decisions based on bad or misunderstood data.

His advice? Learn the basics of how numbers work in an investing context and be skeptical of anyone presenting data without explanation or context.

Bad Behavior: Giving in to Your Own Cognitive Biases

One of the most underestimated risks in investing isn’t market volatility; it’s how your brain reacts to it.

In “How Not to Invest,” Ritholtz shines a light on the subtle yet powerful role that cognitive biases play in derailing good financial decisions. These are mental shortcuts — built for survival, not investing — that often lead us astray.

Ritholtz explains that biases like confirmation bias, overconfidence, hindsight bias, and loss aversion can cloud our judgment and fuel impulsive decisions.

For example, you might cling to a losing stock because selling feels like admitting failure (loss aversion), or you might ignore warning signs because you’re only seeking opinions that support your existing belief (confirmation bias). Worse, in times of stress, these biases compound, just when clarity matters most.

The danger isn’t just that we have biases. It’s that we rarely notice them. That’s why Ritholtz argues for creating systems that protect us from ourselves: automatic contributions, diversified portfolios, and written investment rules that reduce the space for emotional decision-making.

Recognizing your biases doesn’t make you weak. It makes you a smarter investor. The more aware you are of these mental traps, the better equipped you are to avoid avoidable mistakes.

 

 

 

 

The post 3 Mistakes You’re Probably Making With Your Investments appeared first on The Big Picture.

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning fishing reads:

Some 64% of Young Men Day Trading Stocks Feel Like Failures. One-quarter of men aged 18-29 said they trade stocks daily, and almost two-thirds of them (64%) report feeling like failures, according to a study of 2,000 men published Wednesday by the Institute for Family Studies, a pro-marriage think tank. The survey data on the day-trading generation shows a correlation between trading frequency and misery at exactly what the behavioral literature predicts. (Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance)

The Winning Formula for Fund Investors, and Why Others Left Money on the Table: US stock fund investors got the bag. Crypto fans fumbled it. (Morningstar)

NYC’s Pied-à-Terre Owners Hunt for Creative Ways to Dodge New Tax: Owners of second homes are ‘apoplectic’ over the levy; some are highlighting flaws to reduce their home’s value or moving in family members. The Wall Street Journal on the avoidance strategies already in motion — LLC restructurings, residency claims, and creative occupancy arrangements. The tax passed; the lawyers are billing. (Wall Street Journal)

The messy politics behind Google’s big AI shakeup: Google’s AI leadership changes may have come down to pressure to speed up products — and internal ethical conflicts. The Verge on the Jeff Dean–Demis Hassabis power struggle — the org chart battle that reveals how Google is really thinking about the DeepMind integration and the AI race. (The Verge)

Can Reddit fend off a new wave of AI SEO spam? The era of AI-powered search has made Reddit mentions highly valuable. Subreddit moderators are catching brands trying to take advantage. The Verge on the marketers flooding Reddit with AI-generated posts designed to game AI search results — the last authentic corner of the internet is under siege precisely because it’s the last authentic corner. (The Verge)

These Drivers Are Taking Extreme Measures to Avoid New Car Technology: Curmudgeonly roadblocks or the last beacons of sanity? These car owners disable alarms and reconfigure dashboards in search of low-tech bliss. (Wall Street Journal)

Americans Are Turning on Trump: The president’s big gains with Black, Hispanic, and young voters in 2024 suggested a major shift. Less than two years later, he has lost those new supporters. The Atlantic on the polling shift — Black, Hispanic, and young voters who moved toward Trump in 2024 are moving away faster than any cohort in modern midterm history. (The Atlantic)

How to Exist: Here’s an experiment for a true daredevil. Sit there for a three minutes, following two rules: 1. Don’t do anything; 2.Be content. By “don’t do anything,” I mean don’t move, don’t fidget, don’t indulge any thoughts or daydreams. You’re allowed to breathe, and blink. Raptitude’s meditation on the baseline skill nobody teaches — being present in your own life without optimizing, producing, or performing it. (Raptitude)

• No, You Don’t Want to Time Travel: A physicist’s spoilsport tour of why every time travel scenario is worse than advertised — the physics, the paradoxes, and the practical horrors. (D. Giles)

What happens when an NFL ball goes into the stands? In this case, a lawsuit. Hamilton’s lawsuit says he was approached by stadium employees after Hurts handed him the ball, and “they misrepresented and lied to Mr. Hamilton claiming the football was not his property, and that he was violating law if he kept it and demanded that the football be returned.” The Athletic on the fan fight over a Jalen Hurts game ball that ended up in litigation — property law, stadium policy, and the absurd economics of sports memorabilia. (The Athletic)

Video of the day: The Economics Of Billy Joel

Be sure to check out a special bonus episode of Masters in Business interview with Mike Kelly, chief investment officer of Future Standard, a $90 billion multi-strategy platform for wealth management clients. Previously, he was at Omega Advisors and Tiger Management.

 

This indicator is giving the bull market another lease on life

Source: Marketwatch

 

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

"Promises Are Fairy Tales": NATO Will Not Accept Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

"Promises Are Fairy Tales": NATO Will Not Accept Ukraine

Authored by Lucas Leiroz de Almeida via GlobalResearch.ca,

Apparently, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is increasingly being dismissed as unrealistic. Even the regime’s most hardline officials seem to have lost hope regarding Kiev’s accession to the Western military alliance, considering that such a move does not serve NATO’s current strategic interests.   

In a recent statement, Valery Zaluzhny – Ukraine’s current ambassador to the UK, former head of the country’s armed forces, now widely considered Zelensky’s top rival – asserted that Kiev will never join the Atlantic defense bloc. According to him, promises of membership are merely “fairy tales” that do not reflect reality.   

Zaluzhny stated that he is very familiar with NATO’s internal structures and understands how the bloc actually operates. According to him, promises regarding Ukraine’s entry into the bloc are nothing new. Over the course of 12 years working alongside alliance officials, Zaluzhny says he constantly heard such promises, yet saw no particular reason to believe they would materialize now.   

While lamenting that the alliance will never truly accept Ukraine as a member, Zaluzhny criticizes the current situation of the Western bloc, asserting that NATO’s military doctrine is outdated, making the alliance strategically inferior to Russia. Zaluzhny believes it is urgent for NATO to undergo comprehensive military reform and revise its doctrine to align with contemporary realities. He believes Ukraine could contribute to this process but regrets that this will not be possible, given the alliance’s refusal to accept Ukraine as a member.  

“I know NATO very well (…) or about 12 years, I personally worked to ensure that we adopted NATO standards, and every year I listened to fairy tales that we were about to join. Unfortunately, we will never join it (…) NATO will most likely remain in its current form and will spend another 12 years – just as Ukraine did – transitioning to the standards required to reach even half the level of the Russian Federation,” he said.   

Zaluzhny, however, does not entirely rule out the possibility of Ukraine joining a Western military organization. While acknowledging NATO’s lack of interest in admitting Ukraine, he alleges that his country could eventually join a “European military security bloc.” This would only be possible, however, if EU nations and the UK agreed to move forward with creating a regional military alliance outside the NATO umbrella – something many analysts doubt will happen, given American influence over European decision-making.   

In fact, there are some interesting points in Zaluzhny’s statement. He is correct in stating that Ukraine will never be accepted into NATO. The Kiev regime plays a very specific role in NATO’s war plans – precisely that of a proxy or external ally. NATO cannot include Ukraine as a member, as doing so would force the alliance to intervene directly in a war against Russia, which would obviously be a disaster, possibly even nuclear. In this sense, Ukraine’s role as a military proxy is only viable as long as the country remains outside the Western defense bloc.   

He is also right to criticize NATO’s outdated strategy regarding Russia. In fact, NATO decision-makers have never moved beyond the military doctrines of the last century. This has been clearly reflected in the current disastrous anti-Russian military campaign, in which the Kiev regime, guided by NATO, is suffering substantial losses.   

Zaluzhny, however, fails to point out how Ukraine is ignoring its own military tradition on the battlefield in favor of using precisely the same outdated NATO concepts. The military doctrine employed by Ukraine is not autonomous. Ukraine shares a military history with Russia rooted in their Soviet and imperial pasts. If the Ukrainians were following their own military doctrine, they would be using tactics similar to Russia’s -focused on preserving soldiers’ lives rather than conducting large-scale direct combat campaigns.   

However, the Ukrainian armed forces follow NATO orders, which is why they use outdated warfare techniques unsuited to the reality of contemporary combat -characterized by high technology and the massive use of drones. So, in practice, Ukraine would have nothing to add to NATO regarding military doctrine, since the country already adopted NATO’s own doctrine when it agreed to act as a proxy.   

A common argument used by proponents of Ukrainian accession is that the country could contribute to NATO with its real combat experience. In fact, the country has been facing Russia in a large-scale conflict for four years, gaining combat experience that no Western alliance nation possesses. The problem, however, is determining how much of the Ukrainian military apparatus will remain once the conflict ends. The regime has already lost nearly its entire original military contingent and is now relying on forced mobilization to keep its forces active. In this scenario, that experience may count for little, given that the soldiers involved in combat are mostly untrained men sent to certain death on the front lines.   

If NATO didn’t want Ukraine before – when it had the second-largest army in Europe – it certainly won’t accept it now, when it is a failed state fighting with the help of its civilians snatched off the streets. The Ukrainian dream of membership seems increasingly unattainable.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 05:00

Cambridge's Black Time-Travelling Professor (And His Many Superhuman Feats)

Zero Hedge -

Cambridge's Black Time-Travelling Professor (And His Many Superhuman Feats)

Authored by Mark Collett,

Running a single marathon is a great achievement. Running 30 marathons is a spectacular feat. Running 30 marathons in 35 days is something only a world-class athlete could achieve. But running 30 marathons in 35 days, and running the final nine of those marathons with a broken leg – that’s an impossible feat that would require superhuman powers. But that is exactly what Jason Arday has claimed to achieve.

But that’s not all, Jason Arday’s incredible feats aren’t just limited to running nearly 240 miles on a fractured leg without medical intervention, he also claimed to have run 600 miles in six days on a treadmill (without any evidence), played both football and snooker at a professional level (a boast that was apparently taken out of context), raised over £5.5 million for charity (but can’t name a single donor), managed to go 15 years with a barely a wink of sleep, and even appeared on the famous television documentary series Seven Up! – which originally premiered a whole 21 years before he was even born.

This is the story of Cambridge University’s youngest-ever black professor, who was appointed as Professor of the Sociology of Education in 2023.

Jason Arday was born in 1985 on a council estate in Clapham, South London, to Ghanaian parents – a humble beginning for a man who would go on to achieve so much. But Jason would not only achieve great feats, but he would do so against all the odds, overcoming what some may have called ‘impossible barriers’ during his meteoric rise to greatness. At just three years of age, Jason was diagnosed with global developmental delay and autism spectrum disorder, leading medical experts and therapists to predict that he would require assisted living for the rest of his life. But this wasn’t the end of young Jason’s struggles – he was completely non-verbal throughout his early childhood and communicated entirely using sign language and as a result he didn’t learn to speak until he was 11 years-old. He credited his mother for helping him break through his silence by using music, rhythm, and song lyrics to connect him to language – the power of love and song set him on the road to such success. However, due to his late language and speech development, he did not learn to read or write until he was 18 years-old.

Allegedly.

And the word ‘allegedly’ should precede many of Jason’s achievements and boastful tales. It is a well-known medical and biological fact that learning to speak a language fluently after the age of 11 – if a person has been completely non-verbal since birth – is incredibly difficult due to a biological phenomenon known as the critical period hypothesis. Whilst it is not always absolutely impossible, it is one of the steepest challenges in cognitive science. This is because children’s brains form billions of neural connections specifically designed to map sounds to meaning, however, around the point when a child passes through puberty (roughly at the age of 11 to 13), the brain undergoes what is known as “synaptic pruning”. Neural connections that were not used – such as the neural pathways for processing and producing spoken speech – are cleared away or repurposed. Once this pruning happens, the brain loses the elasticity required to naturally absorb language structure.

But it’s not all just about neural pathways, when someone speaks, their brain must also simultaneously coordinate the lungs, vocal cords, tongue, teeth, and lips. This motor mapping is trained continuously through babbling and talking during infancy and childhood. A person who has been non-verbal for 11 years has not built these specific motor pathways, making the physical act of clear speech production highly uncoordinated and laborious. But miraculously, Jason beat all the odds, and at the last possible moment he learnt to speak. But the miracles just kept on coming and Jason managed to attend local schools in South London and eventually left secondary education with two GCSEs – one in Physical Education and one in Textiles. But despite the mountainous struggles that would have beaten most men, Jason was determined to go further still – and eventually, not even the boundaries of time itself would hold him back.

Determined to pursue sports and teaching, Jason then went to a local college to study for a BTEC diploma, which allowed him to bridge the gap into higher education. This was another major milestone for the young achiever – and this herculean feat was made even greater as Jason claimed that due to his late language development, he did not learn to read or write until he was 18 years-old. Some may scoff at Jason’s two GCSEs and BTEC diploma, but to have achieved these grades whilst not even being able to read and write proved that he was nothing short of a child prodigy. Jason then went on into higher education, and graduated from St Mary’s University in Twickenham in 2008 with a BA in Education Studies and Physical Education before serving as the university’s Student Union Athletics President for a year immediately following his graduation. For many, this would be the end of a long and arduous academic road, but to Jason, it was just the beginning.

Jason then went on to earn an MA in Education and Pedagogy from St Mary’s and later completed a PGCE at the Institute of Education to become a qualified school PE teacher. At this point, after achieving so much, and overcoming so many almost insurmountable hurdles, he could have entered a well-paid role in teaching. But Jason was still hungry for more, leading to his transitioning into the subject of Sociology of Education and going on to earn a Master of Education (MEd) followed by a PhD in Education from Liverpool John Moores University in 2015. This would have been incredible enough, but due to Jason’s humble background, he had no financial backing, and whilst passing through educational institutions at breakneck speed he was forced to work part-time retail shifts to fund his higher education tuition. Not only did Jason beat all the odds as a late starter, but he was both an academic genius and a hard worker.

But looking at Jason’s impressive academic résumé, it appears that mathematical qualifications are sadly absent, and that may be why things just don’t seem to add up. We are meant to believe that a boy who was completely non-verbal due to autism and global developmental delay until age 11 and who was unable to read or write until 18, then went on to earn a PhD by the age of 29. This means that in just 11 years Jason managed to learn basic literacy and catch up on all those years of missed schooling, complete an undergraduate degree (which typically takes 3 years), complete two separate Master’s degrees (typically taking 1-2 years each), complete a PGCE teacher training qualification (taking 1 year) and then write a 100,000-word PhD dissertation (taking typically 3-4 years). In just over a decade, Jason had not only learnt to read and write, but condensed 12 years of higher education into a near record-breaking period of time that would prove his hyper-accelerated cognitive processing abilities were second to none. And he did it all whilst working multiple jobs and without sleeping.

Jason’s story was remarkable – some may even go as far as to state that it was unbelievable – but it wouldn’t be long before educational institutions up and down the country would begin falling over themselves to offer him prestigious well-paid positions. Once he had completed his PhD, Jason secured his first major permanent academic post at the University of Roehampton, entering the institution directly as a Senior Lecturer in Physical Education, and it must be noted, this rapid entry without years of junior postdoctoral research was highly unusual, but surely by this point, extraordinary achievements were nothing more than everyday occurrences for Jason. Jason then went on to join Durham University’s Department of Sociology before being rapidly promoted into an executive role. Within just a year, Durham University had promoted Jason to Associate Professor. Alongside this, he was named the Deputy Executive Dean for People and Culture within the Faculty of Social Sciences and Health. Interestingly, and rather tellingly, this executive role placed him in charge of institutional diversity and inclusion initiatives.

But the meteoric rise of the non-verbal black youth from inner city London wasn’t over yet. In 2021 Jason stepped into a new role at the University of Glasgow, joining their School of Education to take the position of Chair in the subject of Sociology of Education – another milestone had been achieved, as he was now a full professor. And at the tender age of 35, this appointment officially made him one of the youngest full professors in the whole of the United Kingdom. It was at this point Jason’s numerous lofty achievements and incredible superhuman feats caught the attention of officials at Cambridge University – one of the most prestigious and influential institutions of higher education in human history had now noticed him and they wanted him on their team. And in March 2023, at just 37 years-old, Jason was appointed to the prestigious Professorial Chair of Sociology of Education at Cambridge’s Faculty of Education and was then concurrently elected as a Fellow of Jesus College. This appointment broke the record for the youngest Black professor in the university’s history. Jason was now at the very pinnacle of academic excellence; his fairytale story was now complete.

This is the point where the tale should come to an end, where things should be wrapped up nicely with a big red bow and where Jason receives the applause and recognition he deserves. And that would be how the story ends, if any of his achievements could actually be verified. But at this juncture some uncharitable folk might claim that Jason was just making it all up, and that the only reason anyone believed him is because lecturers and those with institutional power wanted to promote him in order to prove a very specific and racially charged point. It has been noted that people working within modern higher education, and specifically in institutions like Cambridge, Durham, and Glasgow are highly motivated to promote ‘diverse’ talent, especially if that ‘talent’ has a powerful, motivational and inspirational narrative attached. Jason was everything that liberal multiculturalists could have dreamed of, so much so, that university officials all over the UK were so eager to celebrate the story of a non-verbal black man that had beaten all the odds, that they skipped any of the standard, rigorous vetting of his academic work that one might usually expect.

That is exactly how Jason ended up in his position at Cambridge, not so much because of Jason’s myriad of self-professed achievements, but because the institution never checked any of his claims. And this isn’t mere conjecture: the University of Cambridge has now admitted that officials did not conduct an independent textual analysis when hiring Professor Jason Arday in 2023, instead, their vetting process relied heavily on ‘institutional trust’ and ‘reputation’ rather than any raw forensic auditing. In short, because Jason had already been vetted, hired, and promoted to senior positions by three other highly respected institutions (Roehampton, Durham, and Glasgow), Cambridge’s hiring panel assumed his foundational work was immaculate. Instead, Cambridge University’s appointment panel was deeply captivated by Jason’s unique, highly inspirational backstory and the focus of the hiring process was centred on his vision for the sociology department and his high-profile advocacy work surrounding diversity and inclusion, rather than a line-by-line verification of his past work. After all, who needs to know if a candidate can actually do the job they are being hired for when they fit the diversity profile so perfectly?

But unfortunately for Jason and his eager backers – Cambridge University, a number of other respected academic institutions and several publishers – this isn’t where the story ends, and Jason doesn’t get to leave the stage to rapturous applause.

Earlier this year, allegations would emerge that suggested that Jason’s unbelievable backstory and his near impossible achievements weren’t quite as real as some claimed.

An analysis of Jason’s 2015 PhD thesis, which was awarded by Liverpool John Moores University, revealed something truly shocking: the document contained 188 sentences that were identical or nearly identical to a thesis written by a student at Brunel University in 2009. But these issues weren’t just limited to Jason’s PhD, textual overlaps were then identified in several of Jason’s subsequent journal articles, leading to two separate journals issuing formal correction notes. In some papers, Jason allegedly recycled borrowed text and framed the lines as “direct quotes” from research subjects he claimed to have interviewed himself. Worse still, The Times later uncovered severe flaws in his references, including data discrepancies and the complete omission of a research participant who Jason previously claimed had taken their own life.

This would have been enough to sink any other high-profile academic. However, Jason’s run of incredible feats and unbelievable luck only continued. Cambridge University were so enamoured with Jason that when this new information came to light and accusations of plagiarism emerged, the university’s immediate institutional response was not to question Jason, but instead to defend him. Senior figures from Cambridge University completely dismissed the allegations, framing any criticism of their all-star black professor as a “vile campaign of bullying” directed at a vulnerable, dyslexic and autistic scholar. But as more and more allegations surfaced, Cambridge University officials changed their tactics, and attempted to distance themselves and the institution from the core issue by stating that investigating a PhD thesis is strictly the legal responsibility of the institution that awarded it – they were passing the responsibility back to Liverpool John Moores University.

And the response of those who should have checked his work in the first place was just as telling. Colleagues and peer-reviewers admitted to being hesitant to question Jason’s data or writing style out of fear of looking like they were attacking a vulnerable, autistic scholar – in short, no one wanted to question the black academic prodigy, they just wanted to put him on a pedestal to prove a point. But now, and rather ironically, all eyes were on Jason Arday – but not quite in the way that he wanted, as people were now increasingly focusing on the details of his work rather than his tall tales. As a result, independent researchers began feeding Jason’s published work into advanced anti-plagiarism software and the truth was plain for all to see. Several major academic publishers were forced to confront the reality that their peer-review processes had overlooked glaring and obvious anomalies. But the embarrassment wasn’t yet over, as Jason had published several highly regarded books with a company called Routledge, a leader in academic publishing. When complaints were first made regarding text-recycling and uncredited overlap in these texts, Routledge initially stood by their man. However, as the sheer volume of identical sentences became public, the publisher was humiliatingly forced to initiate a series of formal internal reviews.

Everything was coming crashing down – and there was only one thing Jason could do.

And if you thought that would be to admit to his alleged wrong doings, apologise and walk things back, you would be entirely incorrect. It was in fact time to double down, and invent another story to make everyone feel sorry for him in the hope that the whole incident would just go away and people would stop talking about his alleged plagiarism. And this is where Jason would reveal a final, previously hidden chapter to his remarkable story, it was time for him to tell the world that he had of course been the victim of racism. When Jason had first joined Cambridge University as a professor, he had been the victim of a hate campaign and all this talk of plagiarism and falsified superhuman feats of endurance risked stirring up another maelstrom of bigotry. But it wasn’t enough to claim that he had merely been the victim of hate, Jason had to go further: claiming that a severed pig’s head had been sent to him as part of a sudden escalation of abuse and threats that were specifically aimed at him due to his high-profile appointment as the university’s youngest black professor.

This incredible claim would surely silence all of his critics, as once the police reports and photos of this obscene crime were made public, no one would dare to question the black genius and his remarkable stories. There was only one small problem: Jason did not report the delivery of the pig’s head to the police when it allegedly took place. He claimed that he intercepted a large cardboard box at his parents’ house in South London, on opening the box, he discovered the pig’s head and did what anyone else would do – threw it straight into a wheelie bin and waited several months before calling the police. Well, at least he reported it to the police in the end, so a crime number would back up his harrowing tale. What’s more, Jason was so sure of his interaction with the police, that he went on to claim to reporters that when the police finally investigated the hateful act, they managed to trace the animal back to a local butcher who sold a “whole hog” on the morning that the severed head was delivered to his parents’ house.

However, unfortunately for Jason, the Metropolitan Police keep records of crimes that are reported, and they revealed that after an extensive search, there was no evidence whatsoever of any such report or subsequent investigation. This surely must have been the result of institutional racism within the Met Police and officers must have destroyed all evidence of the report. But at least Jason could still rely on the butcher to confirm the details of this gruesome hate crime. Yet in a final bizarre twist, reporters from The Guardian (who were no doubt driven by a desperate attempt to prove Jason’s story to be true) visited the specific South London butcher that Jason himself had named as the providers of the hog. However, the staff at the shop stated that no police officers had ever come in to question them about a pig’s head, dryly noting, “That’s the kind of thing we’d remember.” Indeed, who could forget such a thing?

One would expect that opening a large parcel only to discover a severed pig’s head nestled within would be rather unforgettable – but in the case of Jason, this may have been just another one of many rather extraordinary occurrences. But as we live in a technological wonderland where everyone has a telephone in their back pocket featuring a high-resolution camera, this kind of extraordinary occurrence would surely result in a photograph being taken. However strangely, Jason did not even take a single picture of the offending item before hurling it into a wheelie bin and according to the police – never even reporting the incident. Strange behaviour for a man of such incredible academic stature, after all, a man who had mastered time travel could surely operate a simple device like a smartphone. It seems that just as with Jason’s academic work, accurate citations were sadly lacking. But the embarrassment was not over yet, as Jason’s friends and colleagues at Cambridge, who were interviewed by the press, all claim he never even mentioned the incident to them. It’s almost as if it never even happened.

Backed into a corner, Jason was faced with only one final option: it was time to go nuclear; it was time for him to scream the word ‘racism’ as loudly as he could and then wait for the cavalry. This is exactly what he did, and he got exactly the result he had hoped for, as more than 12,000 people – including Green Party leader Zack Polanski, at least five Labour MPs and a gaggle of Cambridge academics all signed a petition set up by the Good Law Project supporting him. What’s more, fellow black academics were up in arms about his treatment, with Kehinde Andrews, professor of Black Studies at Birmingham City University, bellowing profusely that Jason was a good boy and he didn’t do anything wrong. In fact, according to Kehinde, poor Jason was merely the victim of a “smear campaign” that was “as predictable as it is baseless”. But it wasn’t just black academics who were angered, white professors also fell over themselves to come to Jason’s defence, with Alan Lester, a University of Sussex Geography professor who specialises in colonialism, calling the entire saga a “non-story”.

But the best was yet to come.

Jewish cognitive neuroscientist, Fellow of Trinity College and director of Cambridge University’s Autism Research Centre – Sir Simon Baron-Cohen – raised important concerns about the impact that the media coverage was having on Jason and his mental health. As Jason had been through so much, and achieved so many great feats, Simon Baron-Cohen wanted everyone to just shut up and stop talking about the issue, stating: “We should of course always investigate plagiarism to protect academic standards; however, I cannot stand by and watch when an autistic man is on the ground and the kicking continues. This is relentless bullying of a vulnerable autistic man and raises safe-guarding issues. It’s time to stop.” According to Baron-Cohen, this wasn’t about truth, academic integrity or standards in higher education, this was now a ‘safeguarding issue’ and what’s more, it was ‘bullying’.

If Jason Arday had been white, it would have undoubtedly been the case that he would have either resigned, or been forced out of his lucrative position. However, at the time of writing, Cambridge University’s leadership is actively shielding him from any scrutiny, citing a prior institutional clearance. An academic misconduct panel at Liverpool John Moores University – which awarded Jason his PhD – reviewed the 188 copied sentences in March 2026 and cleared him of intentional misconduct, ruling the overlaps were an “honest and reasonable error” caused by a depleted student supervision team. They too wanted the world to know: Jason was indeed a good boy who didn’t do anything wrong and that the copied sentences weren’t his fault. Cambridge have now officially declared Jason the victim of a “vile campaign to undermine his credibility” driven by right-wing media outlets and their Faculty of Education is actively providing him with safety infrastructure, including panic alarms and specialist staff to security-screen his mail – who are no doubt on high-alert for severed animal heads. What’s more, despite everything that has happened, the commercial book publishers he has deals with have also confirmed they are still proceeding with his upcoming titles as planned.

[Update: Arday has resigned "with immediate effect", the university said it had launched an investigation into Professor Jason Arday "following new information" about his "academic qualifications and honorary appointments".

He said his resignation should not "be interpreted as a loss of faith in scholarship or in the values that first brought me to Cambridge. Nor should it be mistaken for an acceptance of the narratives that have surrounded me."

Arday said "this is not the end of my work" and that he needed "time to heal".]

But even now, with all these facts, assertions and allegations out in the wild, the public isn’t left with many answers – only more questions.

Was Jason Arday really non-verbal until 11 years of age? Did he miraculously learn to speak at the very last minute with the help of music? Could he really not read and write until the age of 18? If he could not read and write until 18, how on earth did he get two GCSEs and a BTEC diploma? Some of what we have been told is undoubtedly true – he did indeed go to several major universities – but that raises even more questions. How could anyone even apply to a university if they were still learning to read and write? And why would a university accept a student who couldn’t read or write properly? And if he did learn to read and write at the age of 18, how did he compress such a large amount of learning into a single year of work? So many questions, and these questions are all about events and achievements that allegedly took place before Jason even got to university and before he allegedly began copying the work of others.

But then there are a string of pressing questions about his time in higher education.

Why didn’t those checking his work go over it properly? How did Jason manage to get his work through the peer review process, and who were the peers who reviewed it? What work did he present when attending interviews for lucrative and prestigious positions, and how do institutions decide whether a candidate is suitable for the role?

There are people out there who can answer these questions, but they never will. In fact, the only way any of this could be verified is if we had a time machine, and there’s only one person in this whole sorry tale who claims to have broken the laws of physics and travelled back through time – and conveniently, that is of course Jason. Which all leads to only one conclusion: a young black man who was woefully underqualified ended up being ushered through educational institutions and was given a pass at every level in order to unfairly elevate him in a blatant attempt to prove a political point. Jason Arday is the ultimate token black academic, and universities built him up because of that.

And that’s really the point; this isn’t just a story about a silly man with a big mouth and an overactive imagination. This story is really about the fact that one particular silly man with a big mouth and an overactive imagination ended up as a Cambridge University Professor with a number of academic book deals. And the reason he ended up in that position is simple: it wasn’t because of his incredible achievements; it was because of his ethnic background and the sob story he sold to a panel who were no doubt overwhelmingly made up of white liberals. One of the supposed strengths of the academic system is that it is meant to have rigorous checks in place to ensure those who are underqualified do not get into positions of power or authority, and these checks and balances are not only there to ensure fairness and to guarantee that only the best of the best take the top positions in leading universities, but also to ensure that at the heart of academia is a system of structured meritocracy. This meritocracy is not only to ensure the cream rises to the top, but to create a constant upward cycle that leads to ever-increasing standards and that academic boundaries are constantly tested and pushed. But this all goes out the window if a candidate is from an ethnic minority background.

The fact that Jason Arday rose to such a position is a damning indictment of the current state of academic institutions in Britain. But this story also illustrates another important issue – this wasn’t a one-off failing involving a single university and a small number of officials, but a national systemic failing involving dozens of people at multiple top-tier universities and publishing houses. It is clear, these institutions have given up on the ideals of meritocracy and excellence, and have instead elevated diversity, equity and inclusion as the most important virtues in modern education. This is not only unfair to better and more qualified candidates who have genuinely worked harder and deserve the job in question, but it also inevitably leads to a decline in the overall quality of an institution. But the damage done is not just limited to the institution in question, but is part of a wider process of societal and civilisational decline. What’s more, it is a sign that elite institutions are no longer dominated by scholars who strive for knowledge and truth, but instead are controlled by those who have an almost religious belief in multiculturalism and diversity.

This religious belief is so great, that when a man like Jason Arday walks into an institution he isn’t just seen as a poster boy, but almost as a form of messiah who can do no wrong and should face no criticism. As such, those who are so eager to place him on a pedestal will not even question the incredible feats he boasts of – no matter how outlandish they are. Instead, officials within elite institutions will parrot the wild boasts of men like Jason Arday, happily spreading the word of the great miracles performed by their latest diversity hire. Officials at Cambridge University seem so in love with the idea of Jason that they appear to be one step away from claiming that after he ran his 35 marathons (9 of which were achieved on a broken leg) he then proceeded to walk on water and feed the entire university with one mackerel and a single loaf of sugar bread. Such is the unquestioning and almost religious belief in Jason Arday, that even now, the university stands by him and he will remain as one of the best paid and most highly revered published academics in Britain.

To Britain’s elite educational institutions, Jason Arday’s improbable tales of being non-verbal at 11, running marathons on a broken leg and appearing on a television show that premiered 21 years before he was born weren’t red flags – they were integral reasons as to why they embraced him and put him on a pedestal. And that leads to one final point that must be made clear – an uncomfortable issue that many won’t wish to accept. The case of Jason Arday is absolute proof that the ‘woke’ agenda and shibboleths of ‘diversity, equity and inclusion’ are certainly not a thing of the past – in fact they are very much alive and well.

The idea spread by some within the media and in online circles that ‘common sense’ has returned and ‘woke’ politics was just a brief period of social madness is nothing more than a lie that is eagerly accepted and parroted by those who wish to believe they are winning. The notion that woke politics is a ‘thing of the past’ is as realistic as the story of a man running nine marathons on a broken leg – and anyone that chooses to believe either of those assertions is sadly only fooling themselves.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 03:30

Zelensky To Make First-Ever Visit To Serbia, In Symbolic 'Slap In The Face' For Russia

Zero Hedge -

Zelensky To Make First-Ever Visit To Serbia, In Symbolic 'Slap In The Face' For Russia

Serbia is set to host Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a major first of the war which could set off serious diplomatic tensions with Russia, a longtime Serbian ally and 'friend'.

Zelensky will arrive on this first-ever trip on Saturday, August 8, according to Ukrainian officials, despite that Serbia - as a Slavic and Orthodox Christian country - has historically maintained warm ties with Moscow.

via Wiki Commons

But Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has been a leader who has put a little distance between himself in Russia, for example skipping this year's Victory Day Parade in Moscow. He's also been accused of allowing Serbian arms to go to Ukraine, which he's denied.

"I believe we will discuss how and in what ways we can help each other on this issue (EU integration, ed.) and, if possible, learn something from one another," Vučić said of the upcoming visit.

"That also includes our cooperation in culture, sports, and everything else," the president added. Regional media indicated the two leaders are expected to address Ukraine's move toward EU membership, energy cooperation, as well as economic ties.

Zelensky is likely to lobby the Serbian government to take a tougher stance on Russia, for example by joining Western sanctions on Moscow.

President Vučić has consistently resisted calls to join anti-Russian international sanctions, however, stressing that the country's position on the matter will remain unchanged.

But Serbia is still hugely dependent on Russian energy, and just a week ago it was reported that— 

Serbia secured another sanctions waiver from the United States for ​its Russian-owned oil company NIS, energy minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic ‌said on Friday, allowing the firm that supplies most of the country's fuel demand to continue importing crude oil until August 28.

The waiver granted by the U.S. Office ​of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) gives NIS, which operates Serbia's only oil ​refinery, more time while Hungary's oil and gas firm MOL negotiates ⁠the purchase of the Russian majority stake in the company.

As for Zelensky's state visit, the Kremlin is surely not pleased, given the symbolic nature of Belgrade opening up to Ukraine in essence.

Serbia has stood accused of becoming a key element in NATO's Balkan arms pipeline of secretive transfers...

An unnamed senior Ukrainian official made no secret of Zelensky's intent is. "We need to pull the Serbs away from Russia’s side," the official said, calling the unprecedented visit to Belgrade a "slap in the face for the Russians."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 02:45

If This Is Real, We Are Cooked...

Zero Hedge -

If This Is Real, We Are Cooked...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Footage circulating purporting to be from the North African desert shows what looks like an enormous column of sub-Saharan African men moving under escort.

Some estimates put the number at a hundred thousand. Commentators claim Algerian military vehicles and personnel are shepherding them toward the coast.

If the scale and direction prove accurate, Europe faces another deliberate pressure wave on top of the chaos already unfolding in Ceuta.

Naomi Wolf amplified the footage, noting that these movements required state-level logistics.

Additional clips from the same period show large groups being moved near the Moroccan frontier.

One account framed the Algerian regime as collecting Africans from across the continent and directing them toward the border with Morocco, linking the timing to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's recent visit to Algiers.

The caption reads "The Algerian system is gathering Africans from all African countries and deporting them to the border with Morocco. The visit of Pedro Sánchez to Algeria ain't no coincidence, they wanna plot how to stir up crises between Morocco and Spain. The big shots are workin' to wreck the relations between Morocco and Spain."

These desert images land against the still-fresh reality of Ceuta. Late last week an estimated 72,000 people, predominantly young men, stormed the Spanish enclave from Morocco by swimming around the Tarajal breakwater and scaling fences.

Despite the claims of Spanish officials that most have been returned, thousands of sub-Saharan Africans remain on the beaches and around reception centres.

Morocco has refused to take them back. Spain has allocated €25 million and indicated it will transfer those claimed as "children" to the mainland.

Parallel clips show sub-Saharan groups mobilising after the Moroccan surge into Ceuta, with local media noting thousands more Africans preparing the trip.

After the initial breach, groups of military-age men were filmed rampaging through streets, forcing entry into homes, looting, and clashing with residents.

Moroccan authorities were seen emptying trucks of young men near the border and directing traffic toward the Spanish fence. Social-media mobilisation groups shared routes and timing. The whole episode bore the hallmarks of organisation rather than spontaneous flight.

Sub-Saharan holdouts have been filmed receiving Red Cross packages of bread, milk, tuna and water while declaring they will not return and intend to reach the Spanish mainland.

The same networks that organised the first wave are already planning another, according to reports. A Facebook group of 108,000 members posted the call; intelligence estimates put the potential reach at nearly half a million across connected groups.

Lora Ries of the Heritage Foundation's Border Security and Immigration Centre stated: "It absolutely needs to be a concern because it's been going on for years, not just in the UK but throughout Europe... They'll go to London, they'll go to other cities in Europe. And this mass migration will continue. It's an invasion. What happened in Ceuta late last week was shocking to the world."

Twenty-two EU leaders have warned: "We cannot allow uncontrolled mass crossings, the instrumentalization of migration or other hybrid threats to create the perception that illegal entry into the European Union is possible."

Security risks compound the numbers. Spanish counter-terrorism police have identified at least a dozen suspected jihadists previously investigated or convicted in Spain, deported to Morocco, who re-entered during the Ceuta surge.

The investigation is early; officers expect the figure to rise. Migration expert Rubén Pulido said: "Since the Moroccan attack on Ceuta began, I've been warning about this issue. The scenario that has unfolded in the autonomous city is a vector for jihadist and military infiltration."

Vox Andalusia President Manuel Gavira wrote: "Jihadists among the Ceuta invaders, the mafia transporting them to the Andalusian coast, and Pedro Sánchez on vacation. His concessions to Morocco and his suicidal immigration policies have turned our borders into a sieve."

French National Rally leader Jordan Bardella added: "Leaving our borders open means letting enemies of our civilization into our home: the breach opened in Ceuta by the left's naivety is a breach in the security of all Europeans."

The desert footage fits the same pattern of state-enabled movement that turned Ceuta into a staging ground. Sánchez's government responded to the first wave with limited returns, food distributions, and talk of legalisation pathways rather than hard deterrence. The result is a clear signal: breach the border in numbers and the system absorbs rather than expels.

Borders that are not enforced do not remain borders.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 02:00

Are You Ready For The "Rogue AI" Psy-Op?

Zero Hedge -

Are You Ready For The "Rogue AI" Psy-Op?

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

The AIs are breaking free, that’s the story.

It started two weeks ago, when OpenAI reported one of their “agents” had escaped its testing area and got loose on the internet to launch an “unprecedented cyber attack”.

This was clearly meant to be scarier than the public response indicated, because a few days later OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was on the Invest like the Best podcast, asking why it didn’t cause more panic:

“I’ve been a little surprised that more people don’t feel it so viscerally”

In one of the most hilariously obvious propaganda manoeuvres of the year, just the day after Altman said that, CNN headlined:

The OpenAI lab leak was more extensive than we thought

“That thing you weren’t scared of? Well it was even SCARIER than we said it was! Are you scared now?”

We weren’t.

But the lack of public panic didn’t stop another AI going rogue a few days later, Anthropic’s Claude model this time.

And then OpenAI reporting two further incidents themselves.

UPDATE: Just a couple of hours after publication, META joined the party. Apparently their AI “went rogue” too, and hacked another firm.

Never in the history of human endeavour have companies been so keen to report their products going wrong. It seems a rogue AI is the latest must-have accessory in Silicon Valley.

The reasoning behind this is not hard to follow. When your product is artificial intelligence, melodramatically realising your system is even smarter than you thought it was is a simple marketing ploy.

And when one of your rivals goes rogue, you have to go rogue too or you are as good as admitting your model is not as smart as theirs.

“AI company admits their model is smarter than they realised!” is just an advert in scary headline form.

It’s like Ford “admitting” their cars are even more fuel efficient than they planned. Or McDonalds realising their cooks have “gone rogue” and are producing food that is both cheaper AND more delicious than they ever anticipated.

But there’s more to this than just techno-hype and viral marketing strategy. We’re being steered down the avenue of “AI as scary threat”.

See, for example, the dozens of stories talking up rogue AIs from the Guardian to the New York Times to the Wall Street Journal.

“Rogue” is clearly the word of the day. Notice they don’t say it “malfunctioned” or there was an “error”, because that implies mistakes or poor design.

No, the AI “went rogue”, which is cool and sexy and scary at the same time. A word chosen by a focus group of perma-teen marketing executives who have watched too much sci-fi.

Speaking of perma-teens who watch too much sci-fi, here’s Sam Altman (again) declaring we’ve already reached the singularity, the mythic phase of technological development when machines become smart enough to make even smarter versions of themselves without human input.

He is talking rubbish, of course, but the story is the story here. Why would he say this? Why now?

Obviously concerned that this tidal wave of propaganda was being too subtle, in came NBC to really hammer the point home:

The breaches signal that AI’s expanding capabilities are already fueling the security threat experts long feared.

Everybody got that?

It goes on and on.

Just today we’re getting reports from the UK’s brand new AI Security Institute that rogue (there’s that word again) AI agents had tried to trick people by creating false identities.

And I think that’s beginning to circle around to at least part of the wider agenda here.

After all, if AI is so good at pretending to be human, and is out there creating fake identities to steal data, well…how can we tell who is really human?

Perhaps everyone should be issued a digital ID to assist in “proving humanity”.

That’s not me saying it, it’s think tanks like OneID or “experts” testifying in front of congress.

But the ever present push of Digital ID is just one of the more obvious of a raft of potential issues raised by the scary AI narrative.

For now we’re still in the generating fear phase. Getting pumped full of scare hormones by articles like this…

Misleading AI-generated doctors pose ‘huge danger to public safety’

- The Guardian

While they tease vague solutions in headlines like this

That’s a nice one, because it garnishes the AI main course with a soupçon of lab-leak flavour (something else that is doing the fear-porn rounds this week).

There are hints of legislation to come, the EU’s “AI transparency” rules just came into force this week, and the US demanding “kill switches” in AI models, but they are vague for now.

My soft prediction is that, before the end of the year, there will be a “rogue AI” false flag, which allegedly causes either loss of life or some massive financial losses.

I think financial would be the way to go, because they’re always looking for a reason to start a recession or banking crisis, and one they can blame on a third party is too good an opportunity to miss.

Whatever happens, there will be loud calls to “regulate AI”, but what that might mean in real terms I couldn’t say at this point.

To be clear though, if and/or when the official solutions to made-up problem #4987 are finally rolled out, they will have nothing at all do with controlling AI, and everything to do with controlling you.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 23:25

The Vanishing Art Of Presence

Zero Hedge -

The Vanishing Art Of Presence

Authored by Joseph Varon via Brownstone Institute,

Medicine is always changing. In my career, I have seen intensive care units go from simple rooms with oxygen, monitors, and clinical intuition to places where artificial intelligence can predict problems before we notice them, bedside ultrasound helps us avoid guessing, and robotic systems help surgeons work with great precision. Telemedicine now lets specialists care for patients who are far away. These advances have saved lives, made care more accessible, improved efficiency, and helped doctors reach patients who might not have seen a specialist otherwise.

Many studies show how valuable telemedicine is, especially in underserved areas and critical care settings where specialists are scarce (1). I welcome these innovations and use many of them daily. I am convinced that artificial intelligence (AI) will become one of the most important tools doctors have ever had. Recent reviews also suggest that AI will help doctors make decisions, not replace them (2). Still, no matter how advanced our tools get, they should help us do our jobs better, not change what our jobs are about.

A recent lawsuit about the death of a very sick young man has sparked a lot of talk in the medical community (3). Reports say that one question is whether the doctor in charge ever actually examined the patient in person. The courts will figure out what really happened, so I won't guess or assign blame. What worries me is not the lawsuit itself, but the bigger question it raises. Are we starting to think that because technology lets us care for patients from a distance, being there in person is no longer necessary?

When I started practicing medicine, this question would have seemed impossible. We took blood pressure by hand, read chest X-rays on lighted boxes, and depended on physical exams because we had no other choice. We were always close to our patients. We shook hands, sat with families during hard times, and listened not just to heartbeats and breaths, but also to the pauses, the worry in a spouse's voice, the fear behind hopeful words, and the small signs that told us more than any lab test. Sometimes I think those moments taught us as much as any textbook.

Today, we have abilities my mentors never dreamed of. We can look at scans from across the world in seconds. A neurologist can check on a stroke patient from far away. An intensive care doctor can watch over several ICUs at once from a central location. Algorithms constantly review patient data and spot patterns we might miss. These advances are real progress, and many people are alive today because doctors were willing to try new technology. Ignoring these innovations would not just be unwise - it would be wrong.

Presence Begins before the First Word

One of the first lessons I learned as a young physician was never formally taught during medical school. It did not appear in anatomy, physiology, pathology, pharmacology, or any board examination I ever took. Yet it has influenced my practice. One of the first things I learned as a young doctor was never taught in medical school. It wasn't in any class or exam, but it has shaped how I practice more than any lecture or textbook.

Before we say anything, look at lab results, or make a diagnosis, our patients are already deciding if they trust us. Turning our attention to the computer screen. None of these actions appears in clinical guidelines. None contributes directly to a hospital quality score. Yet they often determine whether patients truly hear what we are trying to tell them. Information delivered without trust rarely changes behavior. Information delivered by someone who has earned trust often changes lives.

With all our excitement about efficiency, connection, and new technology, I worry that we are forgetting one of the oldest and most important parts of medicine: simply being there with another person. Presence is hard to measure. It doesn't show up on dashboards, billing codes, or reports. Artificial intelligence can't chart it, and it's hard for anyone to put a price on it.

Nevertheless, every experienced physician understands its extraordinary importance. Presence reassures before a single medication is administered. Presence builds trust before difficult decisions must be made. Presence allows physicians to observe details that no monitor can. Still, every experienced doctor knows how important presence is. Just being there can comfort someone before any medicine is given. It builds trust before tough choices. It lets us notice things no machine can pick up.

Most of all, it reminds patients and families they are not facing illness by themselves. Conversations influence decisions, strengthen therapeutic alliances, and frequently reveal information that would otherwise remain hidden. A frightened patient often tells us something entirely different after five quiet minutes than during the first hurried 60 seconds. Families ask different questions when they believe their physician is genuinely listening. These moments cannot be programmed into an algorithm because they are not transactions of information. They are exchanges of humanity.

The Physical Examination Is More Than Diagnosis

Medical students often see the physical exam as just a way to gather information for a diagnosis. But with experience, doctors learn it means much more. The physical exam is often the first way we help our patients.

When I place a stethoscope on a patient's chest, I am certainly listening for murmurs, crackles, wheezing, or diminished breath sounds. But I am also communicating something much deeper. I am telling that patient, when I use my stethoscope to listen to a patient's chest, I'm checking for things like murmurs, crackles, or wheezing. But I'm also sending a deeper message. Without words, I'm telling the patient, "You have my attention. You matter. I am here." The coolness of an extremity. The slight tremor that no monitor records. The fear hidden behind forced optimism. Every experienced clinician has stories in which these seemingly insignificant observations altered diagnosis, redirected therapy, or changed an entire conversation with a family.

Artificial intelligence will likely become the best tool ever made for spotting patterns. I truly believe that. But people can do something just as important - we notice when someone is suffering.

Those are not the same thing.

Telemedicine Is One of Medicine's Greatest Success Stories

Let me be clear. I am not arguing against telemedicine. In fact, I fully support it.

Telemedicine has transformed healthcare. It has brought stroke neurologists into rural emergency departments within minutes. It has allowed intensivists to support community hospitals lacking around-the-clock critical care expertise. It has connected specialists with patients separated by oceans, mountains, and deserts. During the Covid-19 pandemic, it allowed physicians to continue caring for patients while limiting unnecessary exposure. Countless lives have been improved, and undoubtedly many have been saved because physicians embraced this remarkable technology rather than resisted it.

I have participated in telemedicine consultations myself. Its future is extraordinarily bright. It represents one of the finest examples of technology extending the reach of experienced physicians to places where those physicians cannot physically be.

But extending our reach and replacing our presence are not the same thing.

Technology was made to help us reach across distances, not to take away our presence when we can still be there. If we mix up these ideas, we might start thinking convenience is more important than what truly helps our patients.

Artificial Intelligence Should Make Us Better Physicians

Artificial intelligence will change medicine more than anything else I've seen in my career. It will quickly summarize records, spot medication problems, help with diagnoses, find small changes in images, predict problems before we see signs, and cut down on mistakes. These are exciting changes, and doctors should welcome them, not fear them.

Doctors who don't learn about AI will eventually be left behind. Every generation has had to adapt to big changes. My mentors learned to use ventilators, CT scans, and bedside ultrasounds. My generation got used to electronic records and advanced monitors. The next generation will become experts in artificial intelligence.

The mistake won't be using AI. The mistake will be thinking that just because AI can think, it can also care.

Medicine has always been about both science and relationships. Science gives us many answers, but relationships help us with questions that science can't solve.

The Illusion of Efficiency

Modern healthcare is very focused on efficiency. We track things like how long patients stay, how often they come back, paperwork, patient flow, and many other numbers. These measures are important, and using resources wisely does matter.

But we can't let our focus on efficiency make us forget about the human side of medicine.

Technology has definitely saved doctor's time. But, ironically, most of that time hasn't gone back to patients. Instead, it's been taken up by paperwork, admin tasks, rules, and emails. The same tools that were supposed to free us often end up keeping us stuck at our computers.

Perhaps the greatest irony of modern medicine is that technology has made it easier than ever to communicate. Maybe the biggest irony in medicine today is that technology makes it easier to communicate, but real human connection is becoming rarer. A physician sitting quietly with a frightened family may prevent misunderstandings that would otherwise require days to repair. Sometimes the fastest way to solve a medical problem is to slow down long enough to understand the person who is experiencing it.

Teaching the Next Generation

I have spent much of my career teaching. Whether I'm in Houston, Jakarta, Bali, Mexico City, or anywhere else, I am always impressed by today's trainees. They have instant access to medical knowledge that older generations couldn't imagine. They pick up technology quickly, and many already use artificial intelligence in smart and careful ways.

I hope that we teach them something technology can never replace. Let's teach them to sit down before delivering devastating news. Let's teach them that silence sometimes communicates more than another explanation. I hope we teach them that touching a patient's shoulder may provide reassurance that no medication can duplicate. Medicine has become afraid of touch. Yet a hand on the shoulder. Holding a patient's hand. Touching a forehead. Helping someone sit up. Those things matter. AI can never reproduce that.

Most of all, I want to show them that every monitor, algorithm, scan, lab result, and AI tool is there for one reason; to help us care better for another person. If technology ever becomes more important than the patient in medicine, we will have lost sight of what medicine is really about.

Looking Forward without Looking Away

Sir William Osler told doctors long ago that it's more important to know what kind of person has a disease than what kind of disease a person has (5). Even after a hundred years, this is still true. Diseases follow science, but patients have families, cultures, fears, hopes, values, and beliefs. If we forget that, medicine might be technically great but emotionally empty.

That may be why I continue traveling. Maybe that's why I still travel the world to teach, even after all these years. Whether I'm in North America, Latin America, Europe, or Asia, I keep seeing the same thing. Doctors may speak different languages, work in different systems, and deal with different challenges, but they all know the same moment: when a doctor walks into a patient's room, and everything changes just because someone is truly there. That moment can't be turned into data, outsourced, or given to artificial intelligence.

Choosing between technology and humanity has always been a false choice. We should enthusiastically embrace artificial intelligence, telemedicine, predictive analytics, robotic surgery, and every innovation capable of improving patient care. We should invest in them, teach them, refine them, and continue pushing the boundaries of what medicine can accomplish. But we must never confuse assistance with replacement. Technology should expand the reach of compassionate physicians, not provide an excuse for compassionate physicians to disappear.

The lawsuit that made me think about all this will go through the courts, and the facts will come out in time. No matter what happens, though, the questions it raises are important for every doctor to consider. As we build the hospitals of the future, what kind of medicine do we want to see? Should it be all about connection, efficiency, and computing power? Or should technology be a powerful tool that supports something deeply and unchangeably human? I hope the answer is obvious.

One day artificial intelligence may analyze every laboratory value before I even open a patient's chart. It may recognize physiologic deterioration hours before I do. Telemedicine may connect every specialist on Earth with every patient who needs them. Those achievements will represent extraordinary victories for medicine, and I will enthusiastically celebrate every one of them. But, I hope we never reach a point where a scared patient thinks a screen is the same as a doctor, an algorithm is the same as judgment, or data is the same as compassion. Medicine has always been a science, but at its best, it is also a deeply human relationship.

Technology can extend our reach. It must never replace our presence. When historians look back at this era of medicine, they will undoubtedly marvel at artificial intelligence, genomic medicine, robotics, and technologies we can scarcely imagine today. I hope they will also be able to say that physicians had the wisdom to preserve the one innovation that never needed improving: the simple act of one human being caring for another.

References
  1. Totten AM, Hansen RN, Wagner J, et al. Telehealth for Acute and Chronic Care Consultations. Comparative Effectiveness Review No. 216. Rockville, MD: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality; 2019.
  2. Topol EJ. Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again. New York: Basic Books; 2019.
  3. Fierce Healthcare. Yale New Haven Health hospitals' tele-ICU model highlighted in wrongful death lawsuit. 2026.
  4. Peabody FW. The care of the patient. JAMA. 1927;88:877-882.
  5. Osler W. Aequanimitas: With Other Addresses to Medical Students, Nurses and Practitioners of Medicine. Philadelphia: P. Blakiston's Son & Co.; 1904.

Joseph Varon, MD, is a critical care physician, professor, and President of the Independent Medical Alliance. He has authored over 980 peer-reviewed publications and serves as Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Independent Medicine.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 22:35

Trump Signs Orders To Curb Birthright Citizenship, Target Birth Tourism

Zero Hedge -

Trump Signs Orders To Curb Birthright Citizenship, Target Birth Tourism

President Donald Trump signed two executive orders Thursday that will restrict automatic citizenship to ​children born in the United States because of commercial birth tourism and several other factors.

One of the measures bans birth tourism, the practice of traveling to the United States on a tourist visa with the intention to have a child that is given automatic U.S. citizenship.

Trump called it “a big deal” and said during the signing ceremony that birthright citizenship has been made into a joke.

The U.S. Supreme Court on June 30 struck down Trump’s executive order excluding children of illegal immigrants and legal temporary visitors from automatic birthright citizenship.

Trump called the Supreme Court decision “very unfortunate” and said his administration was making adjustments.

“We had a very unfortunate decision in the Supreme Court concerning birthright,” Trump said in the Oval Office.

“It was close, but a very, very unfortunate decision. So we’re making adjustments because it’s very unfair.”

As Tom Gantert reports for The Epoch Times, Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security adviser Stephen Miller said the 14th Amendment was passed right after the Civil War to ensure the children of slaves would be citizens.

“It had no other meaning and purpose other than that,” Miller said during the press conference.

Miller said one executive order will expand the definition of people who are ineligible for birthright citizenship.

“That includes, for instance, alien enemies of the United States, members of foreign terrorist organizations, and large categories of people who lobby and act on behalf of foreign governments,” he said.

Miller said the second action Trump took would ban birth tourism.

“The idea that people come here, pretend to be a tourist, pretend to be a visitor, say they want to go to Disney Land … but the real reason they are here is to have a child, make that child an automatic citizen, leave our country, and then have a U.S. citizen child—it gives them access, under this broken system, to welfare benefits, ultimately the voting booth … that practice of birth tourism, is as of the signing of this order, hereby banned.”

Trump said that wealthy people were building businesses around birthright citizenship.

“That’s not the way it was suppose to work. It’s a disgrace,” Trump said. “They are buying their way in. We are not going to let it happen.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 22:10

Judge Says Updated National Firearms Act Violates Constitution

Zero Hedge -

Judge Says Updated National Firearms Act Violates Constitution

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ruled on Wednesday that the registration and approval requirements for suppressors, short-barreled rifles, and short-barreled shotguns in the National Firearms Act (NFA) are unconstitutional.

In the case of Silencer Shop Foundation v. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), U.S. District Court Judge James Wesley Hendrix found that the requirements exceeded Congress’s constitutional authority once the NFA’s taxes on making or transferring those arms were eliminated. The taxes were reduced to zero last year.

The court found that the NFA, as enacted in 1934, passed constitutional muster as an act of Congress’s taxing power because the regulatory requirements—including registration, applications, ATF approval, fingerprinting, and related criminal penalties—aided the collection of NFA taxes.

This is in line with the 1937 U.S. Supreme Court case, Sonzinsky v. United States, in which the high court ruled the NFA is a legal exercise of Congress’s taxing authority. In that decision, the court found that the government could gather information on the owners of certain firearms and their accessories that were subject to the NFA’s $200 excise as part of the tax collection process.

Wednesday’s ruling in response to two consolidated cases—Jensen v. ATF, with Silencer Shop Foundation v. ATF—in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, held that once Congress eliminated the taxes for suppressors, the constitutional foundation for registration was eliminated as well.

“In sum, the Court concludes that the challenged NFA provisions exceed Congress’s Article I enumerated powers and are therefore unconstitutional,” Hendrix’s ruling states.

On July 4, 2025, President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” reduced the NFA’s excise tax on suppressors, short-barreled rifles, short-barreled shotguns, and a category labeled “any other weapon” from $200 to $0. However, the items were still required to be registered under the NFA.

Machine guns and destructive devices are still subject to the $200 tax and its requirements. Under Hendrix’s ruling, the category “any other weapons” is still subject to the requirements even though it is not taxed.

The court has issued a permanent injunction against enforcement of the requirements for suppressors, short-barreled rifles, and short-barreled shotguns, but leaves them in place for the “any other weapons” category.

Hendrix stayed his decision for seven days to allow the government to appeal to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

The government argued that the provisions were justified under the Commerce Clause or the Necessary and Proper Clause.

In its court filings, the government pointed out that NFA-regulated businesses are subject to other federal taxes. Therefore, the registration requirements are part of the overall taxing process. The defendants said this has been recognized in prior Supreme Court cases.

“It’s long been settled that the NFA’s requirements aid in the assessment, collection, and enforcement of the Act’s taxes and are thus justified under Congress’s taxing power. Shortly after the NFA’s enactment, in United States v. Sonzinsky, the Supreme Court rejected a constitutional challenge to the NFA’s special occupational tax on firearm dealers, holding that Congress had the power to impose the tax even if it was intended to “restrict or suppress the thing taxed,” the government’s response reads.

Second Amendment advocates hailed Wednesday’s decision.

“We are delighted with the ruling from Judge Hendrix,” Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms Chairman Alan Gottlieb wrote in a statement. “With the tax no longer in existence, there was no logical reason for the ATF’s registration requirement to continue. With this victory setting a precedent, we anticipate success in the other cases involving our sister organization, Second Amendment Foundation.”

National Rifle Association leaders, one of the plaintiffs in Jensen v. ATF, also praised the ruling, and vowed to continue pushing for the end of the NFA.

“Our successful effort to eliminate the $200 NFA tax created the opening for our world-class attorneys to secure this historic federal court ruling that the NFA is unconstitutional. The fight to fully repeal this archaic gun-control measure is not over, but today’s decision is a major step in the right direction,” John Commerford, executive director of the NRA Institute for Legislation Action, stated in an email to The Epoch Times.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act originally repealed the NFA’s excise tax. That language was removed, and the tax was instead reduced to zero, after Congressional Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough determined a repeal did not comport with the tax purposes of the bill.

Gun Owners of America has contended that the ATF and other federal agencies have used the information gathered to build a de facto gun registry. The group has declared that part of its mission is to have the government destroy information it has that could be used to build a registry.

The ATF has strongly denied that such a registry exists.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 21:45

Voter Files In Arizona's Largest County Illegally Obtained In 2020, Records Show

Zero Hedge -

Voter Files In Arizona's Largest County Illegally Obtained In 2020, Records Show

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Voter files in Maricopa County, Arizona, were obtained illegally before the 2020 presidential election, according to records released on Aug. 6 by the White House.

Authorities discovered that 633,000 voter files had been exfiltrated from the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office just before the election, according to logs from the U.S. intelligence community and other documents.

The voter files contained information such as people’s names, birth dates, and addresses.

About 930 of them included information on people such as domestic violence victims, judges, and law enforcement officers.

The files were illegally extracted from the office, the FBI said in a document opening an investigation.

The bureau identified a suspect, who admitted to the crime, according to a document summarizing an interview agents conducted with the man.

The man, who has not been publicly named, used to work for a city whose name was redacted in the FBI file.

He went on to work for himself, fixing computers and removing viruses from machines.

In 2020, he discovered a vulnerability on the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office website while registering to vote.

The man developed a program to obtain voter files from the website and ended up extracting between 1 million and 2 million files to his personal hard drives and an online account, he told investigators.

The man said he did not intend to sell the information.

After he “realized the gravity of the situation,” he “became scared” and knew he would be visited by law enforcement, according to the interview summary.

The man told officials that he destroyed the files shortly before the FBI raided his house in Fountain Hills in November 2020.

The man said he regretted what he did and knew he had to deal with consequences for his actions.

The FBI “spent significant resources solving this cybercrime,” FBI Director Kash Patel said in a statement, but prosecutors in Arizona declined to prosecute the man. He has never been charged.

There’s no evidence that any votes were changed in association with the incident, John Solomon, chairman of the White House Government Transparency Task Force, told reporters on a call.

The Maricopa County Recorder’s Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 19:15

Watch: Mamdani Booed Off Stage At Pro-Police Event As 9/11 Backlash Builds

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Mamdani Booed Off Stage At Pro-Police Event As 9/11 Backlash Builds

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani got a blistering welcome from Staten Islanders Tuesday night, drowned out by a wall of boos that chased the self-avowed Democratic socialist off the stage in under a minute at a National Night Out Against Crime event.

Mamdani had come to Midland Beach to address thousands gathered for the NYPD's 43rd annual National Night Out Against Crime, an event built around strengthening the bond between police officers and the neighborhoods they protect--however--it did not go as planned.

Videos rocketing around social media showed the crowd jeering as the mayor stepped toward the podium, with attendees shouting at Mamdani to leave and others flashing thumbs-down gestures in the borough long considered the city's most conservative.

“It’s a pleasure to be here, I want to say thank you …” Mamdani began amid loud and lusty boos and a barrage of insults such as “you suck!”

The mayor kept smiling through it.

"Happy Night Out Against Crime. It's amazing to be here for the Staten Island community," Mamdani said, thanking local officials and Staten Island artist Scott LoBaido before wrapping up with, "God bless everyone. Thank you."

The whole appearance clocked in at less than a minute before the mayor walked off. Local reports said Mamdani later stopped to pose for photos with some attendees, hostile reception notwithstanding.

The Staten Island rebuke comes as thousands are protesting Mamdani's presence at 9/11 memorial events. Among those protesting the mayor is Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman vowing to turn his back on Mamdani if the mayor shows up.

"I would equate this to a wake. You don't go to a wake if you're not welcome," Blakeman told reporters, according to the New York Post

"I think it's completely appropriate if family members ask him not to come, but if he does come I think there's a respectful and peaceful way to protest that and I would suggest that people turn their back on the mayor," Blakeman said. 

"He's not welcome there because he has yet to say anything in opposition to the global intifada. As a matter of fact it seems like he supports that phrase which is part of the reason why we had the tragedy we had on 9/11."

Staten Island is the most conservative borough in New York City, although it maintains a higher number of registered Democrats than Republicans. As of February 2024, 39.72 percent of registered voters were Democrats compared to 31.46 percent who vote Republican.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 18:50

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