From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 14 June

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 14 June. ...

8-14 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 68.6% (-2.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.43 (+0.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$112.11 (-1.8%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will increase during the summer travel season; however, we will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

DoE Declares U.S. Southeast Grid Emergency To Avert "Blackouts"

A massive heat dome is scorching the eastern half of the U.S., triggering widespread grid stress. The week began with emergency alerts across the Mid-Atlantic, including a multi-hour blackout in New York City's Queens borough as power demand surged. Now, the Southeast grid is under similar tight conditions. The Trump administration has declared a power emergency as millions blast air conditioning. 

On Tuesday morning, the Department of Energy issued an emergency order under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to prevent blackouts in the Southeast U.S. amid surging demand due to extreme heat. The order allows Duke Energy Carolinas to operate fossil fuel power generators at maximum capacity from early this morning through Wednesday, overriding 'green' rules to maintain grid stability and prevent a rolling blackout. 

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright released a statement on X:

"As electricity demand reaches its peak, Americans should not be forced to wonder if their power grid can support their homes and businesses. Under President Trump's leadership, the Department of Energy will use all tools available to maintain a reliable, affordable, and secure energy system for the American people.

"This order ensures Duke Energy Carolinas can supply its customers with consistent and reliable power throughout peak summer demand."

Duke Energy, the power utility serving around 1.7 million customers across North and South Carolina, warned the DoE on Monday about tightening grid conditions that could lead to "isolated power outages."

Duke Energy is urging customers in the Carolinas to reduce energy use during periods of peak demand today, June 23 from 3-8 p.m., to help lessen the energy demand on the power grid and reduce the potential of isolated power outages. https://t.co/lzcp4RC8bz. pic.twitter.com/mLWCjMdjgH

— Duke Energy (@DukeEnergy) June 23, 2025

What's transpired so far:

• Weather Check: "It's About To Get Brutal"

• "Maximum Generation Alert" Issued for Nation's Largest Power Grid

• Power Blackout Hits Parts Of Queens, NYC: Con Edison Urges Energy Conservation As Temps Spike

• "You're Welcome": Pennsylvania Boasts About Saving 'Green' Maryland From Power Grid Collapse

Just brutal...

The good news is that the Trump administration signed an executive order in early April to "strengthen the reliability" of the nation's power grid after years of de-growth green policies retired ultra-reliable fossil fuel generation in favor of unreliable solar and wind. This action comes amid soaring demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, re-shoring, and broader electrification trends. It's time to shore up the grid to create more stability to bridge the gap until the nuclear renaissance expected in the 2030s. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 13:00

Off Ramps, On Ramps

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Markets are in a jubilant mood as Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire to begin within hours. Brent crude prices have fallen by more than 7% at time of writing to $71.48/bbl and US equity indices have finished the day higher across the board. Equity futures in North America and Asia are also pointing higher.

Trump’s announcement followed an Iranian missile strike on the United States’ Al Udeid base in Qatar. The New York Times reports that Iran had provided backchannel notification of the impending retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to Qatar and the United States prior to the attack. That was subsequently confirmed in a ‘Truth’ by Donald Trump who described the Iranian attack as “weak”, but also thanked Iran for issuing the heads up.

Trump subsequently took to Truth Social again to announce the ceasefire agreement which he says will effectively end what he is calling the 12 Day War. An Iranian official has since confirmed that Iran has agreed to the ceasefire, raising hopes that an effective off-ramp has been found and that strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan will not drag the US into a protracted regime-change effort.

The ceasefire announcement follows earlier reports that Israel was seeking to seize on the success of US strikes and end the war in coming days. Unnamed officials had reportedly told the Times of Israel that Jerusalem was willing to end its bombing campaign if Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program. Up until now Iran has remained defiant that it would continue its nuclear program and, critically, its controversial drive to enrich its own uranium. So, is there some agreement to come on the nuclear program, or has this simply been placed in the “too hard” basket for now?

While the US claims to have ‘obliterated’ Iran’s enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, the extent of the destruction is not completely clear and it seems that up to 400kg of uranium already enriched to near weapons grade remains unaccounted for. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said yesterday that Iran’s enrichment program – including the pursuit of nuclear weapons – would continue, and that “other” countries had expressed willingness to supply Iran with warheads.

That might have been pure bluff as Russia, still reeling from the loss of a friendly regime in Syria, seeks to stave off the loss of another friendly regime in central Asia. In (another) post to Truth Social Trump seemed to treat it as such, criticising Medvedev for casual use of the “N word” (nuclear) while making pointed reference to the technological superiority of the US’s nuclear submarines, which had just fired 30 Tomahawk missiles at the Esfahan facility. The subtext was reasonably clear: “you’re not the only one with extensive nuclear capabilities in the region.”

While the Middle East and energy prices seem to be on course to return to something resembling the status quo ante bellum (aside from Iran’s enrichment capabilities, air defences and ballistic missile stocks), the NATO summit today kicks off in the Netherlands with the FT reporting that Poland is upset that Spain has been granted an exemption to the 5% of GDP defence spending target, and that Belgium is set to seek a similar exemption. Poland’s indignation is easy to understand given its shared border with Russian client state Belarus and its plans to get very close to the 5% spending target this year.

The position taken by Spain (and Belgium) underlines some of the inherent contradictions of European collective defence that seem destined to require strengthened supra-national structures to overcome. Chancellor Friedrich Merz seems to understand that Germany – Europe’s largest economy and more geographically Eastern than other big economies – will need to take the lead for collective security to work. 

Merz reiterated yesterday that Europe can no longer “free-ride” on the United States and must step up defence investment to achieve “strategic independence”. That’s all well and good, but as Mark Rutte pointed out to Chatham House last week, Russia currently produces more ammunition in three months than the entire NATO alliance can in a year, and much of the NATO contribution comes from the United States. Ahead of the NATO summit, our European team examines the conditions for success of boosted European defence spending here.

Critically, Europe lacks a shared nuclear deterrent. Emmanuel Macron has recently indicated that he is open to French nuclear weapons being deployed in EU countries to the East, but that they must remain under complete French control. This raises questions about whether a forward-deployed French nuclear deterrent would be a deterrent at all, especially in light of comments that Macron made in 2022 where he said that the French nuclear doctrine was based on the vital interests of France, and that if Russia were to launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine “or in the region”, this would not meet the threshold for the use of French nuclear weapons. Consequently, Merz remains clear-eyed that French nuclear weapons are not a credible substitute for the US nuclear deterrent.

Meanwhile, Aussie Prime Minister Albanese will not be attending the Indo-Pacific partners event at the NATO summit tomorrow. That event features Donald Trump, who Albanese is likely anxious to meet with following a US decision to place the AUKUS program (the centrepiece of Australia’s defence planning) under review. Australia will instead send Deputy PM Richard Marles, who will presumably attempt to secure assurances from Trump that the US really will let Australia buy some of those nuclear submarines that Trump was bragging about on Truth Social overnight. 

That effort may be complicated by news today that Australia will add YouTube to its social media ban for under-16s, an effective non-tariff barrier for US tech that we explore in a new report on Australian economic statecraft. Does sharing the crown jewel of your defence capabilities with allies who resist your wishes on trade, sanctions and defence spending sound very “America First” when you have insufficient supply for your own needs? Perhaps not.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 12:40

"You're Welcome": Pennsylvania Boasts About Saving 'Green' Maryland From Near Power Grid Collapse

Pennsylvania State Sen. Kristin Phillips-Hill (R-York) wrote in a late Monday Facebook post that the state's surplus electricity supplies were exported to Maryland during Monday's peak demand surge, as temperatures in the region approached 100°F. She credited Pennsylvania's stable power grid with preventing a blackout crisis in "our 'green energy' neighbor - Maryland." As we've reported on several occasions, far-left climate Marxists running Maryland have mismanaged the grid, which now teeters on the verge of a Spain-style blackout disaster if outside energy imports are not secured.

"Just a friendly note to our "green energy" neighbor - Maryland: You're welcome," Sen. Phillips-Hill wrote in the post. 

She said, "During this heat wave, Maryland consumers demand a lot more energy than it generates. If it was not for Pennsylvania - it would be lights out and air conditioning off," adding, "This is another reminder that Maryland should work on supporting (and not shutting down) baseload energy generation rather than require farmers in Southern York County to give up pristine farmland to construct more transmission lines." 

Not even two weeks ago, a top official at Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), a local utility with 1.3 million electric customers and 700,000 natural gas customers, warned that rolling power blackouts could soon become a regular feature in the state due to a rapidly alarming mismatch between total power capacity on the grid and soaring demand. 

As per The Baltimore Sun:

Regular rolling blackouts could become reality for Baltimore-area residents if a lack of energy supplied to the power grid remains unaddressed, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company Vice President Electric Operations Steven Singh warned.

BGE has worked during the last two decades to lessen the number of short-term loads shed events, Singh said, but rolling blackouts — during which power is disconnected from some segments of the community when the grid remains viable — could be implemented if power demand continues to exceed supply.

"It's a huge concern," Singh said. "It's a clear and present issue."

At a recent round table at the University of Maryland … We have a supply and demand issue."

Singh also shared larger concerns with energy shortages that may result as the energy transition away from coal-fired power plants continues, and electric vehicle ownership grows. He said one factor that impacts the region is an increase in data centers — reliant on huge, power-hungry server infrastructure.

Regular rolling blackouts could become a reality for Baltimore-area residents, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company Vice President of Electric Operations Steven Singh said.

Storms and other large-scale weather events are the main reason for outages, while blackouts are caused by a… pic.twitter.com/O0nmbpxXFQ

— The Baltimore Sun (@baltimoresun) June 9, 2025

We first highlighted Maryland's deepening power crisis in August 2024, citing a Goldman Sachs note circulated to institutional clients:

• Goldman Says Mid-Atlantic Power Prices "Finally Caught Up To AI Data Center Load Growth Story"

Also noted:

•  Maryland "Can't Import Itself Out Of Energy Crisis" Amid Urgent Need To Boost In-State Power Generation

At the heart of the crisis is the state's Democratic leadership, which has masqueraded as efficient managers but are, in reality, far-left climate Marxists. Disastrous "green" policies are plunging the state into yet another crisis. 

Maryland needs to wake up to the reality that local elections matter. Power bills are spiraling out of control because Democrats in the state are more focused on Marxist-style reparations schemes to fleece taxpayers, overtaxing residents, having margaritas with illegal aliens, diverting public funds to migrants, pushing radical woke agendas, attempting to install condom machines in elementary schools, and advancing degrowth green policies.

Condoms for Kindergarteners — this is the priority of @mddems. Rather than supplying the grid with more power and lowering electric bills, or giving children stuck in failed schools a better option, Annapolis Democrats want to put condoms in kindergarten classrooms. Sad. pic.twitter.com/rpBog5jkgd

— Mark Fisher (@fisher4maryland) February 21, 2025

Far-left Governor Wes Moore—whom Democrats are eyeing as a future presidential candidate—has steered Maryland into multiple crises. Remember, activists in managerial roles often lack the experience to govern effectively, instead focusing on advancing their ideological agendas. The result is a state in rapid decline—mismanaged policies, soaring costs, and growing frustration among residents. It's no surprise that Marylanders are packing up and leaving in search of better-run Red States. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 12:00

Iran Reopens Airspace To Commercial Flights As Ceasefire With Israel Finally Holds

Update(1300ET): The ceasefire seems to finally be holding as of early evening local time, despite the ongoing accusations of earlier violations when it was to take effect.

"Both Israel and Iran wanted to stop the War, equally! It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!" President Trump said on Truth Social. Were they all destroyed?

And China has belatedly weighed in, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying China supports Iran in achieving a "genuine ceasefire" - but following Beijing's condemnation of the US for striking the country’s nuclear sites.

"China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, and, on that basis, achieving a genuine ceasefire so that people can return to normal life," Wang expressed to his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in a phone call. 

But here is the clearest indicator yet that skies have cleared of Israeli warplanes and return fire over Tehran:

Iranian airspace partially reopened today, following the country’s ceasefire with Israel after 12 days of hostilities, according to aviation monitoring company FlightRadar24.

“Iranian airspace is now open to international arrivals and departures to/from Tehran with prior permission,” FlightRadar24 said on X. Iraqi airspace has also reopened, it added.

Also, Iranian media is currently airing footage of a large crowd assembled in central Tehran, in an act expressing solidarity with the country’s armed forces. IRNA, Fars, and Mehr are covering the gathering in Revolution Square. Now each side is declaring 'victory' to some extent, but whether the ceasefire will actually stick is anyone's guess.

AFP/Getty Images

* * *

Update(1116ET): On Tuesday the head of Iran's nuclear energy program vowed that the country will continue its nuclear program uninterrupted, despite the Trump-ordered weekend heavy bombings of three key nuclear and uranium enrichment sites.

AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) head Mohammad Eslami said on state television that "plans for restarting [the facilities] have been prepared in advance" and that measures ensuring continued production are in place.

"Despite the evil conspiracies of its enemies," the AEOI said in the statement, "this organization will not allow the path of development of this national industry to be stopped."

Head of #Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization: “We’ve taken necessary measures & are assessing the damaged areas. Plans for revival [of #nuclear facilities] were pre-arranged, and our current strategy ensures no disruption to production & services. pic.twitter.com/3OzppGj6TH

— Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) June 24, 2025

"This action, contrary to international law, was unfortunately carried out in the shadow of indifference and even with the cooperation of the International Atomic Energy Agency," the statement read.

This is not surprising, but what is surprising is just how bold and provocative a statement that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov just made. On the question of Iran's now 'missing' (or 'unknown whereabouts') enriched uranium stockpiles, he laid out that Iran has every incentive to hide it from IAEA inspectors. 

"What guarantees are there that the IAEA will not leak this information to the US or Israel?" he posed in public statements on the American military action against Iran, while emphasizing that arms control will fail due to these American-Israeli surprise attacks which killed negotiations.

Lavrov criticized the IAEA Director for demanding to know where Iran's enriched uranium is stored. What guarantees are there that the IAEA will not leak this information to the US or Israel?
— Arms control will not be the same after this surprise attack; everyone will lose. pic.twitter.com/wPR3GA2dj7

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) June 24, 2025

Indeed the Iranians too have long feared that international inspectors could be conduits of information on sensitive facilities for Israeli and US intelligence. And now these same facilities are being targeted for destruction.

* * *

Despite last night's big news of a Trump-declared ceasefire, the reality is it was little more than an effort at a pause, and it's increasingly looking like neither side actually signed onto. Or at least each side issued 'confirmation' with a lot of conditions, and there wasn't even firm agreement on the start time.

As the US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire deadline closed in, Israel and Iran kept exchanging lethal blows overnight, with Israel hitting various targets in Iran, killing nine people in northern Iran and reportedly assassinating yet another nuclear scientist, while Iran killed at least four Israelis in a devastating hit on an apartment tower. At eight minutes after midnight in Washington, President Trump used his Truth Social account to announce the ceasefire was in effect, and to urge continued compliance.

But as of Tuesday morning, Trump's message is one of extreme frustration. His fiery statement to the press just moments before boarding Marine One included the declaration, "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f*ck they're doing. You understand that." Watch the comments below:

Trump says Israel and Iran ‘don’t know what the fuck they’re doing’ pic.twitter.com/FWoVCqdLL9

— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) June 24, 2025

The warring sides have not heeded Trump's call to immediately halt, and at the very moment the US president has been issuing desperate messages and warnings, explosions are still being observed in Israel and Iran.

Just after the president addressed the press, Israel's Channel 12 said IDF warplanes have launched another round of strikes against Tehran. This also just as Trump issued a new Truth Social post demanding that Israel not attack Iran. "All planes will turn around and head home," he wrote, almost as a directive, so that "Nobody will be hurt" as "the Ceasefire is in effect!"

A big question remains whether he's bringing real leverage to bear against Israel, or if the latest 'objections' are more just show to provide political cover for himself for the negative fallout as war persists. But his current deeply frustrated tone is a reminder of the failures to achieve peace in Ukraine, and the past Ukraine-Russia related statements to just 'let them fight it out' of the last months.

Axios' Barak Ravid offers up an explanation (per machine translation):

Israeli official: Trump called Netanyahu and asked him not to attack Iran at all. Netanyahu told Trump that he could not cancel the attack and that some kind of response was needed to Iran's violation of the ceasefire. Ultimately, it was decided to significantly scale down the attack and cancel the attack on a large number of targets

Times of Israel has also freshly commented on the obvious miscommunication and apparent growing rift among allies concerning plans for the Iran conflict, and whether to halt the fighting of keep up the attacks:

Trump was sending out posts on his Truth Social platform promising that Israel will not strike Iran “after he knew we would attack,” an Israeli official tells the Kan public broadcast.

Israeli officials confirmed that the IAF struck an Iranian radar site north of Tehran, after Iran fired two ballistic missiles at Israel after a ceasefire had taken effect.

But it's still possible, amid the finger-pointing, that ceasefire could take effect Tuesday, though it's anyone's guess precisely when.

In the overnight hours there was this large Israeli attack on Tehran even after ceasefire was announced to the world:

Tehran. After 3am. Israel is bombing all over district 6 & 7 of Tehran. Home to 600,000, the area houses the Tehran Museum of Contemporary Art, which has the largest collection of Francis Bacon paintings in the world. The area is also home to many governmental buildings. pic.twitter.com/TvT76HoPd7

— Samira Mohyeddin سمیرا (@SMohyeddin) June 24, 2025

It may in the end have little substantive to make it stick, and might prove merely a pause or temporary respite for both sides to assess damage and regroup. Here's how we got here, via Newsquawk:

• US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, from 05:00BST/00:00ET, which would last for 12 hours. After which, the war would be considered officially ended.
• Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
• Strikes continued into and after the Iranian proposed time of 01:30BST/20:30ET. After the Trump deadline of 05:00BST/00:00ET, Iran is said to have fired some missiles at Israel, though they claim it was fired just before the deadline.
• At 06:04BST/01:04ET Trump posted that the "ceasefire is now in effect".
• At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM's office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
• The ceasefire agreement seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.

Iran's overnight missile strike on a residential home in Be’er Sheba resulted in some shocking scenes of people seeking to get out and survive the nightmarish ordeal:

DEVASTATION in Beersheba following MISSILE attacks from Iran

Resident in shock, deeply INHALES and SCREAMS out https://t.co/KusIgVzPsR pic.twitter.com/ty1LuWZWoR

— RT (@RT_com) June 24, 2025

Aftermath and rescue efforts of the hit on the Beersheba residential building:

TRAGEDY IN BEERSHEVA: Three of the victims were members of the same family. The fourth person killed was in a nearby apartment.

According to the Home Front Command’s investigation, the missile struck the sixth floor, hit two apartments, and exploded directly inside the shelter.” pic.twitter.com/GoKLvz1lZq

— Hen Mazzig (@HenMazzig) June 24, 2025

Israel is now feeling the drive for vengeance for this and other devastating blows from the Islamic Republic, despite Trump in this rare moment expressing that he's "really unhappy" with Israel. "Bring your pilots home, now!" - is the message not being heeded.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 11:16

Trump Chastises Russia's Medvedev Over 'Casually' Saying The 'N-Word'

President Trump while messaging seemingly non-stop on the Iran-Israel war found time late Monday to lash out at Russia's deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev over his latest nuclear-related comments connected to the ongoing Iran war.

Trump chastised Medvedev for "casually" talking about nuclear weapons, especially given that Medvedev had claimed that due to America's bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, there are several countries ready and willing to provide Tehran with weapons of mass destruction.

The former Russian president didn't identify such nations, but only said in the Sunday statement, "A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads."

And he also said provocatively of Iran, "The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue."

Trump's belated clap-back came Monday via his Truth Social platform, where he wrote: "Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the ‘N word’ (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran?"

And for good measure, why not throw in some additional nuclear brinksmanship with Russia. Awesome! pic.twitter.com/6pIfUeNsVU

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 23, 2025

Continuing the humor and obvious sarcasm, Trump informed Medvedev in the message that "the ‘N word’ should not be treated so casually."

"Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY. The ‘N word’ should not be treated so casually," Trump had said. 

Then Trump pivoted to touting US military might, supposedly on display with the weekend attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

"They are the most powerful and lethal weapons ever built, and just launched the 30 Tomahawks — All 30 hit their mark perfectly,” Trump wrote.

Medvedev often acts as what we might call "Russia's John Bolton"...

He plays 'bad cop' to Putin's 'good cop' - or often says the quiet part out loud, and issues the most extreme threats, with Putin often later being the voice of reason, dialing down the threats based on the possibility of the West making concessions in Ukraine.

Via Fox News

Later on Monday, Medvedev actually responded to Trump's N-word commentary. "Regarding President Trump’s concerns: I condemn the US strike on Iran – it failed to achieve its objectives. However, Russia has no intention of supplying nuclear weapons to Iran because, unlike Israel, we are parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty," he wrote on X.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 10:40

Peace Through Strength

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group (“GIG”) weighed in on the American Strike. The overall assessment was that this was a good move:

• Helped re-establish deterrence and sent a strong message to all adversaries.

• The assessment was that Iran had limited capacity/capability to strike back.

• Iran would be under pressure internally and externally not to mess with the Strait of Hormuz.

We recommended buying the dip in stocks and bonds, in a large part due to the GIG’s assessment.

Academy had the privilege, yesterday, to be on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio and the Wolf of All Streets (a more crypto centric podcast). We discussed and re-iterated our view that the strike was likely a good decision and would lead to good things! Academy’s section starts at the 56 minute mark in this Bloomberg TV Clip. Much of what we discussed has come to pass – and we sent out an optimistic SITREP shortly after Iran Attacks U.S. Bases.

At this stage Peace Through Strength seems to be working out according to plan. Things can obviously change, but not only has a lot of progress been made in the region, but all of our adversaries have to consider us in a different light after that bold (and successful) strike.

There has been some discussion about how much damage was inflicted. What Iran may or may not have moved away. It is still early to tell, as it will take time to collect the full intelligence, but we argued, and continue to argue:

• The damage was likely extensive. Sensitive equipment, even if not fully damaged, may be inoperable for a long time.

• The damage was secondary to the message delivered. To a great extent, it doesn’t matter what was hit or not hit. Those facilities are likely to be inoperable and inaccessible. Anyone considering entering the facilities, for repair, further work, or extraction, has to realize they will likely be attacked (for those attacks, the Israeli Air Force is more than capable). If things have been moved, it is likely they will be found (intelligence has been very good) so they will ultimately get attacked.

This combination of so many factors, which the GIG has the experience, understanding and insights to lay out, has been working well.

There is talk about Regime Change, and we discuss that in the clip above. Whether that can occur or not, remains to be seen, but our current thoughts are:

• It has to be an organic, groundswell, from the people of Iran.

• It should not be something orchestrated (certainly not via military) by Israel or the U.S.

• With the IRGC command structure hurt badly, with the Ayatollah in hiding, the opportunity may be there.

There is reason to be optimistic that this strike has set the region on a better path.

The “Other” Moving Parts

As discussed in Sunday’s T-Report, there are A LOT of Moving Parts. We will be watching progress on the Big Beautiful Bill now.

More Tariff extensions seem the most likely and obvious path. One thing that we are hearing more about, are various “tariff mitigation” strategies. We have already discussed the potential to change the component values to import the same good into the U.S. at lower tariff rates, by shifting the various input values to countries with lower tariffs (primarily, not China at current levels). We are seeing a surge in USMCA Compliant approvals – a process that was largely ignored, until it had the ability to sidestep tariffs.

On the Fed, we have now had two members, Waller and Bowman try and put July on the table.

The market (nor the Fed) are with our more aggressive view on timing and number of rate cuts, or bond yields in general (we are more bullish than consensus), but things are moving that direction and Peace Through Strength should further help our view.

Things could still go wrong in the Middle East. Iran could dig in its heels on nuclear enrichment, etc., but for now, we can be optimistic. It is not unreasonable for this success to translate into renewed efforts with Russia/Ukraine, which would also be a positive (especially for global bond yields).

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 10:20

June Gloom Hits Consumer Confidence After Gay May; Inflation Expectations Plunge

After surging by the most in 14 years in May, analysts expected this morning's June data for The Conference Board's consumer confidence index to continue to rebound in June.

However, it did not. The headline Confidence print disappointed, dropping from an upwardly revised 98.4 to 93.0 with future expectations dropping, but Present Situation tumbling to its weakest since Sept 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

“The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.

Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May.

Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market.

The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened.

Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.”

The Conference Board's Inflation Expectation index tumbled, leaving UMich alone in its partisan pathology...

Source: Bloomberg

Guichard added that:

"Tariffs remained on top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices."

"Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month."

Of course, the partisanship never ends - we note that Democratic states are seeing confidence collapse while Trump states are seeing confidence rise...

Source: Bloomberg

Let's wait and see if UMich can 'fix' its bias or just keep pushing inflation expectations to the moon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 10:13

 

 

Today, I am participating in a few events at Bloomberg’s Hedge Fund Forum 2025.

I will be moderating the Emerging Managers Panel:

Hear from new and emerging fund leaders on the opportunities and obstacles of launching and growing a differentiated investment strategy in today’s competitive alternatives landscape, including how they are leveraging AI to enhance investment processes, streamline operations, and navigate the early stages of building a fund.

Matthew Cherwin: Co-Founder & CIO, Marek Capital Management

Imran Khan: Founder & CIO, Proem Asset Management

Matt Jozoff: Co-CEO & Portfolio Manager, Trevally Capital

I did this same panel with different managers each of the past two years. It is a great collection of three emerging managers in a variety of areas who have put up solid numbers. I have been skeptical of the costs of the overall sector, but I am always fascinated by high-performing managers in the alt space who earn their keep. I am looking forward to this conversation.

I will drop the full panel discussion into the MiB feed as a bonus Masters in Business live.

 

The post Bloomberg Hedge Fund & Alternative Manager Forum 2025 appeared first on The Big Picture.

Watch Live: "Very Dumb" Fed Chair Testifies To Congress

Watch Fed Chair Powell's testimony to Congress here (due to start at 1000ET):

*  *  * 

In his prepared remarks ahead of this morning's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his comments from last week's FOMC that the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates as officials wait for more clarity on the economic impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs.

“The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level,” Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery to Congress.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

His comments - with no a bit of dovishness - comes after three of his colleagues (Waller, Bowden, and Goolsbee) all hinted at rate cuts as soon as July in recent days.

Powell said the tariffs’ impact on inflation could be short-lived or possibly be more persistent.

“Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined,” Powell said in a statement that largely echoed remarks he delivered last week.

“Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”

Avoiding the latter outcome “will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,” he said.

President Trump chimed in (early): 

“‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell, of the Fed, will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate,” Trump said on social media early Tuesday.

“I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come.”

Economic data so far has shown limited impact from tariffs.

Does make you wonder about "Fed Independence"...

Powell: Inflation Has Eased Significantly but Remains Somewhat Elevated

is it somewhat less elevated than it was in Sept 2024 when you cut 50 bps to ram stocks higher into the election?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 24, 2025

*  *  *

Read Powell's full prepared remarks below:

Chairman Hill, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

The Federal Reserve remains squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our 2 percent longer-run objective. We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.

I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

Incoming data suggest that the economy remains solid. Following growth of 2.5 percent last year, gross domestic product (GDP) was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. This unusual swing has complicated GDP measurement. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP)—which excludes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending—grew at a solid 2.5 percent rate. Within PDFP, growth of consumer spending moderated, while investment in equipment and intangibles rebounded from weakness in the fourth quarter. Surveys of households and businesses, however, report a decline in sentiment over recent months and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment.

In the labor market, conditions have remained solid. Payroll job gains averaged a moderate 124,000 per month in the first five months of the year. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent in May, remains low and has stayed in a narrow range for the past year. Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures. The strong labor market conditions in recent years have helped narrow long-standing disparities in employment and earnings across demographic groups.

Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in May and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.6 percent. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up over recent months, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Respondents to surveys of consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters point to tariffs as the driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.

Monetary Policy

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. With the labor market at or near maximum employment and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent since the beginning of the year. We have also continued to reduce our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities and, beginning in April, further slowed the pace of this decline to facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserve balances. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

Policy changes continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.

The effects on inflation could be short lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

The FOMC's obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem. As we act to meet that obligation, we will balance our maximum-employment and price-stability mandates, keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.

For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 10:00

Crude Slides After Trump Says China "Can Continue To Purchase Oil From Iran"

Trump continued his crusade against high oil prices, and US energy producers (recall yesterday he posted "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!"), when the President posted on Truth Social that "China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran"...

... which of course they have been doing, purchasing pretty much all the oil Iran is exporting (with the "Asia/Unknown" in the chart below primarily signaling Singapore which is also effectively China).

It was not immediately clear whether Trump's post meant that the US was removing sanctions on Chinese purchases of Iranian oil. If so, that would explain the quid-pro-quo that took place behind the scenes, with Trump convincing Tehran to lay its arms down in exchange for Iran no longer having to hide its exports to China, which were technically sanctioned but nobody enforced said sanctions as it would mean a spike in oil prices.

And ultimately while the Trump post meant just a continuation of the status quo - because whether with or without sancitons China would always import Iranian oil - his intention was clear: hammer oil even more, and sure enough, WTI crude which was already reeling after a near record swing over the past 24 hours, slumped to session lows around $65 before recovering.

At this point, it is clear that it won't be Iran, or any foreign producer, that ends up taking the hit, but rather US shale that is forced to pump much less at ever lower prices, until eventually the first axiom in commodity trading comes true, namely that the solution to low oil prices, are low oil prices... and the resulting collapse in supply as unprofitable companies either shut down or are liquidated. Unfortunately, neither helps makes American energy producers great again.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 09:57

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3-month average of February, March and April closing prices). February closing prices include some contracts signed in December, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.51% (a -4.8% annual rate). This was the second consecutive MoM decrease.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in just 5 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 6.4% from the recent peak, Tampa is down 2.7% from the peak, and Denver down 2.0%.

Russia's Lavrov Says 'WW3 Could Be Near' After US Drawn In To Iran War

Israel and Iran's renewed and intensifying attacks at the start of this week, just prior to President Trump desperately trying to enforce a ceasefire, saw Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warn that World War III "could be just around the corner" - especially following America's entry into the conflict with the weekend bombing of Iran's nuclear sites.

He also called the B-2 bomber attacks authorized by Trump "irresponsible" and said they were in violation of international law. "This will be not peace and order, but complete chaos and, as [President Putin] said today, the third world war may be very close," Lavrov said.

Since the Ukraine war began, Russia has initiated closer defense ties with Tehran, and has relied on a steady supply of Iranian Shahed drones. It has offered to assist Iran based on specific requests, but is unlikely to get engaged in any military action against Israel.

Lavrov's comments focused 'big picture' and the unraveling of regional stability, and he connected the Mideast and Eastern European theatres. The 'chaos' sown by the US in the Middle East is parallel to the same in Ukraine, he explained.

"Their intention to use Ukraine against Russia is no longer hidden. Russia is demonized. Even the world demonized does not quite reflect this aggression, some kind of beastly one in rhetoric, in actions," he added. 

This certainly isn't the first time the top Russian diplomat warned that Washington actions are preparing for potential WW3. For example last year, there was this:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a World War III warning to the U.S., saying that the West was "asking for trouble" by even considering Ukrainian requests to use supplied weapons to conduct strikes deep within Russian territory.

Discussions about using Western supplied missiles to strike Russia are tantamount to "playing with fire," Lavrov told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday.

So it seems Moscow is now saying the US is also playing with fire in its attacks on Iran. There's also been much speculation that Trump's muscular and brazen actions are meant to signal China too.

Decades ago, Sen. Biden inadvertently predicted the future closer relations of 'pariah' states Russia, China, and Iran:

In 1997, Biden bragged that he dismissed Russia's concerns about NATO expansion. Moscow could be ignored as the US was the only game in town
- Biden mocked Russia's warning it would have to align with China, and joked that Russia could also partner with Iran as the crowd laughed pic.twitter.com/eGYHjZ0qGT

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) March 3, 2025

But if anything, Russia and China are sitting back watching the chaos unfold, as a desperate Trump seems to now be begging 'America's closest ally' to halt the warplanes and abide by ceasefire. If Trump is unable to achieve ceasefire in the Middle East, Moscow and Beijing will surely take note of this too, and will use it as another black eye and charge against Washington.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 09:35

New York City Voters Head To Polls For Highly-Contested Mayoral Election Primary

Authored by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times,

It’s primary day on Tuesday in New York City as voters there cast their ballots in party primary elections for city offices, with the Democratic Primary for the mayoral election being the most highly-watched and closely contested, between former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.

New York City’s incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, has chosen to run for re-election as an independent candidate, meaning that he is not on the ballot in this primary election.

Adams’s tenure as mayor has been controversial and he is unpopular with the city’s Democrats. Cuomo—who served as the Governor of the State of New York from 2011 to 2021 and is the scion of the Cuomo political family—has long been the frontrunner in the mayoral primary, though he has recently seen a strong challenge from Mamdani, a 33-year-old Indian-Ugandan immigrant who is running on a left-wing platform.

“I’m proud to be the labor candidate in this race—endorsed by most major labor unions, 650,000 working men and women. Because the labor movement is the heart and the soul of the Democratic Party,” Cuomo wrote on social media on June 22.

He scooped up dozens of endorsements in recent weeks, including that of The New York Times editorial board, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and several high-ranking federal and state officials, including some from other states.

Mamdani, by contrast, has received the endorsement of progressive figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), among others.

[ZH: PolyMarket sees Mamdani as the front-runner for now...]

The NYPost has made it clear how it feels...

Today's cover: New Yorkers: Get out and vote against the menace that is Zohran Mamdani https://t.co/6oarWaBGAv pic.twitter.com/ekoPnQ3lmL

— New York Post (@nypost) June 24, 2025

Given the strong Democratic lean of New York City, the Democratic primary election has usually been the real contest of the city’s mayoral election.

Apart from the office of mayor, voters will cast primary ballots for several citywide offices, such as the public advocate, comptroller, the district attorneys of various judicial districts in the city, as well as city councilors.

In several of these races, incumbents are running for re-election, through New York City Comptroller Brad Lander (D) has decided to run for mayor instead.

New York City voters will be using “ranked-choice voting” to select their parties’ nominees. The system differs from the usual first-past-the-post voting in that, instead of casting one vote, voters may rank all candidates in order of preference.

After the first round of tallying, where all first-preference votes are counted, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated and their voters’ second-preference votes are added to other candidates’ tallies, respectively.

This process continues until one candidate crosses the threshold of 50 percent of the vote, at which point they are elected.

Polls opened at 6 a.m. and the primary results will be tallied after polls close at 9 p.m.

The general election will be held on Nov. 4 of this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 09:15

US Home Prices Plunged In April - Biggest Drop Since Dec 2022

After US home pries declined in March (the latest data) for the first time in over two years, this morning's Case-Shiller Home Price Index data was expected to show another drop in the cost of buying a home.

And the consensus was right but way off in magnitude as prices in April tumbled 0.31% MoM (-0.02% exp) - the biggest MoM drop since Dec 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Prices are still up 3.4% YoY, but that is the slowest acceleration since Aug 2023.

Tampa prices continue to lead the plunge...

Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates dipped during that period (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, the next couple of months do not bode well...

Source: Bloomberg

However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies prices are going continue to lag for the next couple of months before re-accelerating once again...

Source: Bloomberg

So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices... and now prices are tumbling again as you pause... Well played Fed!!

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 09:05

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3-month average of February, March and April closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 2.7% Annual Gain in April 2025

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.7% annual return for April, down from a 3.4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.8% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, down from a 4.1% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.9% increase in April, followed by Chicago and Detroit with annual increases of 6.0% and 5.5%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw slight upward trends in April, posting gains of 0.6%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices both reported gains of 0.7%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.4%. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices saw a -0.3% decrease.

“The housing market continued its gradual deceleration in April, with annual price gains slowing to their most modest pace in nearly two years,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor.

“The National Composite Index posted a 2.7% annual gain in April, marking its slowest year-over-year appreciation since mid-2023. This deceleration was broad-based, with the 20-City Composite advancing 3.4% and the 10-City Composite up 4.1%—both substantially below their recent peaks. The composition of these gains tells an important story: Approximately 1.7 percentage points of April's annual increase occurred over the past six months, indicating that price momentum has been concentrated in the recent spring selling season rather than sustained throughout the year. "
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was down 0.3% in April (SA).  The Composite 20 index was down 0.3% (SA) in April.

The National index was down 0.4% (SA) in April.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 4.1% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 3.4% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 2.7% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were lower than expectations.  I'll have more later.

Futures Jump, Oil And Dollar Dump As Markets Ignore Ceasefire Violations

US equity futures jumped, rapidly approaching all time highs, while oil and the dollar tumbled on hopes the worst is over in the middle east, even as traders parse rapidly-changing headlines on Iran where the fragile ceasefire with Iran announced by President Donald Trump was promptly violated by both sides, sparking several angry outbursts by Trump this morning, starting with this one...

• ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!  DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

... followed by this:

• ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

... and Trump even dropped the F-bomb in frustration. 

Trump says Israel and Iran ‘don’t know what the fuck they’re doing’ pic.twitter.com/FWoVCqdLL9

— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) June 24, 2025

In any case, for now markets are giving the lack of a ceasefire the benefit of the doubt - after all Trump probably already printed hats commemorating the end of the "12 Day War", and as of 8:00am, S&P futures rose 0.8%, signaling a second day of gains, while Nasdaq 100 futures surged 1%, with all Mag7 stocks higher premarket led again by TSLA with semis and cyclicals ex-energy also higher. European stocks and Asian stocks also advanced. has plunged 15% from Monday’s intraday high, sliding an additional 5.6% on Tuesday as it fell below the level of June 12, the day before Israel began attacking Iran’s nuclear sites. The benchmark later pared some losses to trade above $69 a barrel after Israel reported a missile launch from Iran and instructed its military to respond; but for the most part oil has completely shrugged off reports that the ceasefire is obviously being violated.  The dollar headed for its biggest drop since the outbreak of the conflict. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed, as investors’ awaited the first day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before lawmakers on Tuesday (at 10am ET) which is adding fuel to the rally. The yield curve is twisting steeper as USD decline continues. Cmdtys are lower, dragged by Energy, but precious metals are under pressure. Today’s macro data focus is on housing prices, Consumer Confidence, and regional Fed activity indicators. Barring another escalation in the Middle East, focus will shift back to the Fed, with six speakers today including Powell.

In premarket trading,Mag7 stocks are all higher alongside index futures (Tesla +2.2%, Amazon +1.5%, Alphabet +1.2%, Apple +1.2%, Nvidia +0.9%, Meta +0.7%, Microsoft +0.6%). Tesla (TSLA) is outperforming fellow Magnificent 7 stocks in premarket trading on Tuesday, rising 2.2%, after launching its much-anticipated driverless taxi service to a handful of riders. Here are the other notable premarket movers: 

• Airline stocks around the world surged after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, spurring optimism over a potential easing of airspace disruptions in the Middle East.
• Circle Internet Group Inc. shares (CRCL) fell 1.9% in premarket trading after the stablecoin issuer was initiated at Compass Point Research & Trading with a recommendation of neutral as competition is expected to increase after US stablecoin legislation was passed.
• CommScope shares (COMM) are up 2.2% in premarket trading, after Deutsche Bank added the communications equipment company to its catalyst call buy list.
• Crypto-linked stocks are rising on Tuesday with Bitcoin gaining as much as 2.2% amid broader market gains after Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire.
• Energy stocks fall and airlines rise after a ceasefire announcement by President Donald Trump pointed to a potential reduction of tensions in the Middle East. Iran has yet to confirm publicly that it agreed to the ceasefire.
• Lyft shares (LYFT) rise as much as 5.4% in premarket trading on Tuesday as TD Cowen raised to buy from hold citing multiple growth levers.
• Mastercard (MA +2.7%) deepens its partnership with Fiserv (FI +4.4%) to integrate its new FIUSD token across a range of Mastercard products and services, expanding stablecoin adoption and utility for their shared customers around the world.
• NextDecade Corp. (NEXT) gains 4.6% premarket after TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman raised the recommendation to buy from hold, citing the expectation of final investment decisions in favor of two new liquefaction trains at the Rio Grande liqufied natural gas project in Texas.
• Teladoc Health shares (TDOC) rise 5.2% in premarket trading on Tuesday, putting stock on track to extend gains after Citron Research said the market is underestimating the value of the virtual health-care platform.
• Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) rose 3.5% on Tuesday as it’s set to begin offering its customers driverless Waymo rides in Atlanta, making it the second market, after Austin, where the two companies are teaming up instead of competing against each other.

In corporate news, Alphabet’s Google is set to face more scrutiny from the UK’s antitrust watchdog over its online search and advertising business. Starbucks said it’s not currently considering a full sale of its China business, disputing a report from Caixin Global that had sent the shares higher in late trading on Monday.

The rapid-fire sequence of events followed a turbulent stretch in financial markets, which have been roiled for nearly two weeks by fears of an escalating conflict. Volatility was particularly high in oil, as concerns over supply and shipping disruptions had pushed Brent crude to nearly $80 a barrel. However, the subsequent collapse in the price of Brent below $70 helped the narrative on inflation risk and, together with equity positioning that suggests investors are still on the sidelines, could create upside potential. Barring another escalation in the Middle East, focus will shift back to the Fed, with six speakers today including Powell.

“If the ceasefire holds – and there is no guarantee that it will - it will undoubtedly be greeted positively by markets as it will at the margin reduce uncertainty,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management in Switzerland. Lower oil prices will reduce inflationary pressure and “also help support consumption trends and hence growth overall.”

The greenback slipped 0.4% against a basket of currencies as demand to hedge against higher oil prices receded.

“The US dollar was one of the key beneficiaries of the hostilities so it is now rolling over,” said Sean Callow, a senior analyst at InTouch Capital Markets. “Investors have been very keen to draw a line under the Israel-Iran conflict, choosing to leave aside any concerns over the path Iran might choose beyond the very short term.”

Elsewhere, Powell is due to testify before two committees in Washington this week amid ongoing pressure from Trump who said interest rates should be “at least two to three points lower.” Further geopolitical headlines might come from a two day NATO summit starting today in the Netherlands.

“We’re going to go back to the bigger picture, and that is to talk about tariffs and growth,” Mislav Matejka, head of global equity strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., told Bloomberg TV. “To believe that tariffs are fully digested and that inflation pickup will not happen whatsoever, i think that is premature.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose  1.4%, lifted by airline shares, as President Donald Trump said a ceasefire was in place between Iran and Israel, easing worries about a prolonged conflict. Energy and utility sectors are the only two in the red. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Energy stocks fall in European trading while airlines rise after US President Donald Trump said a ceasefire is now in place between Iran and Israel.
• AstraZeneca shares rise as much as 1.8% after the drugmaker’s Datroway medicine received US approval for the treatment of some patients with lung cancer.
• Melexis shares rise as much as 7.9% after it was upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley as a likely beneficiary of a cyclical recovery in autos, and named as top pick in European semiconductor small caps.
• DKSH gains as much as 4.9% after the Swiss distribution company receives a new buy rating from Berenberg, which hails its market-leading position in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Lindt shares fall as much as 4.4% after BofA downgraded the chocolate maker to neutral from buy, saying that a strong 1H is already priced in and the valuation is looking stretched.
• OVH Groupe slumps as much as 17% after the cloud computing company releases its third-quarter results. Analysts note high expectations heading into the print following strong share-price advance year-to-date.
• Shares of precious metals miners drop as gold falls on ebbing haven demand after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.5% to a one-week low. The kiwi dollar is leading gains against the greenback, rising 1%.

In rates, treasuries mixed with the yield curve steeper in early US session. US front-end yields are more than 3bp lower on the day with long-end tenors little changed, leaving 2s10s and 5s30s spreads wider by 2bp-3bp, extending Monday’s move. 5s30s spread topped at 99.98bp, approaching year’s high 100.9bp, reached May 22. the 10-year is flat at 4.35%, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by 5bp and 1.5bp. European bond markets are broadly weaker on the day led by Germany, which announced plans to borrow about a fifth more than planned in the third quarter, spurring long-end-led selloff.  Longer-dated bonds lead declines with German 30-year yields rising 10 bps to 3.06%. US 30-year borrowing costs also rise 2 bps to 4.90%. US shorter-dated yields fall. The Treasury auction cycle starts with $69 billion 2-year note sale at 1pm New York time and includes $70 billion 5-year Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year Thursday. WI 2-year yield near 3.82% is ~13.5bp richer thank last month’s, which stopped through by 1bp

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall over 3% to $69 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran had gone into effect. Oil prices pared losses briefly after Israel has accused Iran of breaching the ceasefire, while Tehran denied firing missiles at Israel after truce. Spot gold falls $49 to around $3,319/oz, and together with oil, was back below levels before the Israeli strike on Iran. Bitcoin rises 1.6% and above $105,000.

The US economic data slate includes June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity and 1Q current account balance (8:30am), April FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic home prices (9am), June Richmond Fed business conditions and consumer confidence (10am). Fed speakers include Hammack (9:15am), Powell (10am), Williams (12:30pm), Kashkari (1:45pm), Collins (2pm), Barr (4pm) and Schmid (8:15pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.8%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.1%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +1.4%
• DAX +2.2%
• CAC 40 +1.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.36%
• VIX -1.7 points at 18.16
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.5% at 1202.68
• euro +0.3% at $1.1608
• WTI crude -3.3% at $66.27/barrel

Top overnight news

• US equity futures bid higher after Trump declared a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the truce, saying Israel had achieved its war goals. But within hours, the country accused Tehran of launching more missiles, a charge that Iran denied. BBG
• Trump said interest rates should be “at least two to three points lower” ahead of Jerome Powell’s testimony before a House committee. The Fed chair is expected to defend holding rates until at least September. He appears before the Senate tomorrow. BBG
• Germany will borrow about a fifth more than planned in the coming months to fund a surge in spending, while a deal to secure a €46 billion ($53 billion) package of tax breaks highlighted how debt needs are set to grow. BBG
• China’s advantages in developing artificial intelligence are about to unleash a wave of innovation that will generate more than 100 DeepSeek-like breakthroughs in the coming 18 months, according to a former top official. The new software products “will fundamentally change the nature and the tech nature of the whole Chinese economy,” Zhu Min, who was previously a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said during the World Economic Forum in Tianjin on Tuesday. BBG
• The custodians of trillions of dollars of global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China's yuan as the splintering of world trade and geopolitical upheaval spark a rethink of financial flows. RTRS
• "Big Banks are worried [US] President Trump could turn the power of the federal government against them with an executive order on “debanking.”", via WSJ
• The PBOC set the strongest yuan fixing since November as the dollar fell. BBG
• JGB futures slid after a weaker-than-expected 20-year debt auction, Japan’s first since trimming its bond sales plans last week. BBG
• Europe signals it could soften digital rules aimed at American tech giants for the first time as it seeks relief from Trump’s impending trade tariffs. Politico
• ECB’s Villeroy says the central bank can still cut rates despite recent geopolitical-driven volatility in oil markets. FT
• Fed's Bostic sees economic growth slowing to 1.1% this year, inflation rising to 2.9%; no need to cut rates now, sees single 25bps reduction late this year.
• House GOP leaders were still unsure whether they would cancel the July 4 recess to pass the mega bill, depending on whether the Senate could clear the bill by the weekend as planned. The decision depended on what changes the Senate made and whether the House would need to alter the bill: Politico
• US Senate Majority Leader Thune said House will ultimately accept what the Senate passes, according to three senators in the room: Punchbowl.
• US President Trump posted "Members of Congress are united in their commitment to deliver the One Big Beautiful Bill "
• NHTSA seeks information from Tesla (TSLA) after Robotaxi debut, with regards to issues seen in online videos. Tesla (TSLA) is sued by the estates of three people killed in a September 2024 crash in Model S with autopilot, according to a court filing: BBG
• Starbucks (SBUX), when asked to comment on media report, says it is not currently considering a full sale of its China operation. Earlier, it was reported Starbucks (SBUX) is reportedly mulling full sale of China business, according to Caixin.

Iran/Israel

• US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, from 05:00BST/00:00ET, which would last for 12 hours. After which, the war would be considered officially ended.
• Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
• Strikes continued into and after the Iranian proposed time of 01:30BST/20:30ET. After the Trump deadline of 05:00BST/00:00ET, Iran is said to have fired some missiles at Israel, though they claim it was fired just before the deadline.
• At 06:04BST/01:04ET Trump posted that the "ceasefire is now in effect".
• At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM's office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
• The ceasefire agreement seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.

Trade/Tariffs

• Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly arranging to visit the US as early as June 26th for tariff talks, according to Yomiuri.
• The EU said it would not give up decision‑making power for a US trade deal, according to the WSJ citing European Commission President von der Leyen.
• US and South Korean trade ministers reaffirmed commitment to reaching a tariff deal early, according to the South Korean ministry.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded firmer across the board with the region coat-tailing gains from Wall Street, which initially stemmed from Iran's "symbolic" strike on a US base in Qatar—de-escalatory in nature given the clear effort to minimise casualties and collateral damage. Sentiment was further boosted at the resumption of futures trading after US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, although the Iranian Foreign Minister later clarified that there was no "agreement", but Iran would stop attacking if Israel also halts. ASX 200 was bolstered by most sectors, although energy producers and gold miners bore the brunt of the slide in oil and gold. Nikkei 225 gains and tested the 39k mark to the upside amid broader market optimism, although gains were somewhat capped by gradual JPY strength. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broader tone across the market amid optimism surrounding the Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside the step-down in tensions with the US.

Top Asian News

• Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan would hold its Upper House election on July 20th, according to Reuters.
• Japan’s finance ministry said top foreign exchange diplomat Atsushi Mimura would be reappointed for his second year, as he remained involved in US trade talks, according to Reuters.
• PBoC injected 406.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%.
• PBoC issues guidelines on financial support to boost consumption; to increase credit support for services consumption and key areas To increase support for the real economy. Support employment, boost income. Improve financial institutions capabilities, expand supply in consumer sector. Maintain ample liquidity. Strengthen financial services to help optimise consumption environment. Encourage issuance of consumption ETF. Support eligible enterprises in consumption industry chain to raise funds through listing. Support qualified consumer infrastructure companies in issuing REITs in the sector. To increase investment in key areas of services consumption.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.2%) opened entirely in the green and still trade at elevated levels, albeit have cooled a touch off peaks. Sentiment today has been boosted by US President Trump’s “complete and total ceasefire” announcement between Iran and Israel. Though this seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire. Complex continues to remain buoyed. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, in-fitting with the positive risk-tone seen across markets. It comes as no surprise that Energy sits right at the foot of the pile, due to the latest slump in oil prices, following the latest ceasefire agreement. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, lifted by lower oil prices and with airliners generally buoyed by the broader sentiment.

Top European News

• ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB could still proceed with rate cuts despite volatility in oil markets, according to the FT. He noted that inflation expectations remained moderate.
• BoE's Greene says underlying activity is weak, the labour market has loosened further and the disinflationary process is continuing. Worries about both demand and supply sides of the economy. Continue to think risks remain two sided but skewed to the downside on growth and to the upside on inflation. Given the period of elevated inflation through which we have just come, I think price stability is the key priority. A careful and gradual approach to removing monetary policy restrictiveness continues to be warranted. On the domestic front, noisy data means that it will take longer for me to take comfort from recent disinflationary trends. On the global front, there are a number of key events playing out between now and our next meeting, including the deadline for the pause on so-called “reciprocal tariffs” from the US, the potential passage of a budget in the US and the unfolding of events in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that the uncertainty from these events – and subsequent developments – will be resolved any time soon (in reference to global points of uncertainty, i.e. tariffs, geopols). Still expect trade policy to have a net disinflationary impact on the UK, but it may be muted relative to my expectations in May, when it was a factor in my decision to cut Bank Rate. The risk that our near-term plateau in inflation feeds through into second round effects is skewed to the upside.
• UK Grocery Inflation 4.7% in the four weeks to June 15th (prev. 4.1% in May), via Kantar; "Grocery footfall hit a five-year high", grocery volumes -0.4% Y/Y, the first such decline in 2025.
• German Finance Ministry says it is to issue EUR 19bln more than initially planned in Q3; includes EUR 15bln increase in borrowing on the capital market and EUR 4bln increase on the money market.
• German Finance Agency says will "probably" continue upward adjustments to bond issuance in Q4. Very good demand for long term bonds. 50yr Bond not planned for this year but internal conditions have been created.

FX

• DXY is lower as the safe-haven premium continues to unwind for the USD. This comes after US President Trump declared a ceasefire between Iran and Israel; which was subsequently later acknowledged by Israel. However, Israel has since stated that Iran has breached the ceasefire. Accordingly, DXY has bounced from a 97.96 low and made its way back onto a 98.0 handle. Focus will be on Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT alongside US Consumer Confidence.
• EUR is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers. EUR/USD rose to a session peak at 1.1622, benefiting from the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but the move for the Single-Currency ran out of steam around the same time that Israel claimed that Iran had violated the ceasefire. In terms of domestic drivers, German IFO data saw a larger-than-expected increase for the Business climate metric. A slew of ECB speakers are due throughout the day. If upside in EUR/USD resumes, the YTD high from June 12th sits at 1.1631.
• JPY is towards the top of the G10 leaderboard despite the unwind in the safe-haven premium seen elsewhere. JPY is instead benefitting from the pullback in oil prices, given that it is a net importer. Furthermore, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly arranging to visit the US as early as June 26th for tariff talks, according to Yomiuri. USD/JPY has pulled back markedly from Monday's 148.03 peak and briefly slipped onto a 144 handle with a current session low at 144.95.
• GBP is firmer vs. the USD and EUR as it benefits from the bump in risk sentiment. Fresh UK-specific macro drivers are lacking for today's session. However, that could change given the busy BoE speaker slate which includes MPC members Bailey, Greene, Ramsden, Pill and Breeden. Markets will be looking for any clues over the MPC's future easing intentions given the three dovish dissenters at last week's meeting, as well as a recent run of soft data points, including last week's retail sales release.
• Antipodeans are both are near the top of the G10 leaderboard on account of the positive risk-tone. Fresh macro drivers for both have been on the light side. However, traders are mindful of Australian monthly CPI metrics overnight, which are expected to see the Weighted Y/Y CPI metric decline to 2.3% from 2.4%.
• CAD firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers as the declines in oil prices caps gains for the currency. Attention today will be on domestic inflation data with Y/Y CPI for May set to hold steady at 1.7%, M/M is expected to rise to 0.5% from -0.1%. Note, at its most recent meeting (where it left rates unchanged), the Bank stated that further rate cuts may be warranted if tariff-related uncertainty spreads but inflationary cost pressures remain contained.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1656 vs exp. 7.1605 (prev. 7.1710); strongest CNY fix since Nov 8th 2024
• Brazil’s central bank announced a spot dollar auction for 25 June, offering up to USD 1bln. It also announced a reverse FX swap auction on the same date, offering up to 20k contracts, according to a statement.

Fixed Income

• USTs are lower by a handful ticks in what has been a choppy European morning so far. Overnight, benchmarks lost their haven allure given Trump's Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement. Though this was short-lived, as Israel claimed Iran had broken the agreement by launching two missiles into the area - This sparked a modest bid in the USTs, taking it to 111-14. Pressure has since resumed more recently in tandem with Bunds, after the latest updates from the German Finance Agency (details below); USTs are currently trading just of lows at around 111-09+. For the US specifically, traders will eye US Consumer Confidence, 2yr supply and a slew of Fed speakers (incl. Fed Chair Powell).
• Bunds tracked peers overnight and into the morning, on the aforementioned geopolitical updates. For the region itself, the German Finance Ministry said it is to issue EUR 19bln more than initially planned in Q3. Thereafter, the agency said it will "probably" continue upward adjustments to bond issuance in Q4; commentary which saw German paper slip to a fresh trough of 130.35. On the data front, German Ifo printed firmer than the prior across the board. German auction was okay, with decent demand but with a higher avg. yield - ultimately unable to stop the continued pressure in Bunds, which is now down to a 130.35 low. Ahead, a slew of ECB speakers.
• Gilts are softer and trading marginally heavier than peers, potentially as a function of confirmation that the UK will pledge to increase defence spending to 3.5% (prev. 2.3%) by 2035. In slight contrast to Bunds and USTs, Gilts have exactly matched Monday’s 92.25-93.21 confines, but are yet to breach them. A couple BoE speakers have already appeared today (and a few more still yet to come); BoE's Greene said underlying activity is weak and the labour market has loosened further and the disinflationary process is continuing.
• Germany sells EUR 3.066bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 1.70% 2027 Schatz: b/c 2.9x (prev 2.9x), average yield 1.85% (prev 1.78%), retention 23.35% (prev 18.27%)
• UK sells GBP 1.7bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.02x (prev. 3.36x) & real yield 1.386% (prev. 1.268%)

Commodities

• Crude drilled lower overnight after the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire which came into effect at 05:00 BST. Benchmarks now trade lower by around -3.5%, with recent two-way action seen on reports of ceasefire violations. In an update which lifted benchmarks this morning, the IDF said that it had detected missiles launched from Iran, which the nation said it had intercepted. Far-Right Israeli Finance Minister, Smotrich said the ceasefire was violated, and that Tehran will tremble in response. More recently, downticks were seen across the complex after Iran denied firing missiles towards Israel, we now look for further clarity. Brent Aug'25 currently trades around USD 69.30/bbl.
• Spot gold is firmly in the red, towards session lows and suffering from the positive mood after the US announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire.
• Base metals are trading firmer given the positive risk environment, alongside the softer USD.
• Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil output seen at 35.7mln T in 2025, according to KazMunayGas.

Geopolitics: 

Iran's attack on US base in Qatar

• Iran's Foreign Minister said Tehran’s attack on a US air base in Qatar was in response to US aggression against Iran’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, adding that Iran would be ready to respond again if the US took further action, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump posted "CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!"
• Saudi Arabia stated that Iranian aggression against Qatar was unacceptable, could not be justified, and constituted a flagrant violation of international law, according to Al Arabiya.
• US Vice President Vance said Iran is now incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because the US destroyed it, according to a Fox News interview.

Israel-Iran Ceasefire

• US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, to begin at 00:00 EDT/05:00 BST, and lasting 12 hours. Trump stated that the war would be considered officially ended following this sequence. He praised both nations for ending what he termed “THE 12 DAY WAR.”
• Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
• US President Trump called the ceasefire between Iran and Israel — which he announced — a wonderful day for the world, according to NBC News. He said he believes the ceasefire is unlimited and is going to go “forever.”
• US President Trump and Vice President Vance discussed the Israel-Iran ceasefire proposal with Qatar’s emir after Iranian attacks on the airbase in Qatar on Monday, according to an official cited by Reuters. Qatar’s prime minister secured Iran’s agreement to the US ceasefire proposal in a call.
• Israel's Channel 12 reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Iran during talks with US President Trump, on the condition that Iran stopped its attacks.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu announced an agreement with Iran, noting that a comprehensive ceasefire agreement had been reached, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said there was no "agreement" on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations between Israel and Iran. He stated that Iran had consistently made clear it was Israel that launched the war, not Iran. However, if Israel halted its "illegal aggression" against the Iranian people by 4 a.m. Tehran time, Iran had no intention to continue its response. He added that the final decision on halting Iran's military operations would be made later.
• Israel attacked a “substantial percentage” of the targets approved as part of Operation Am Kalvi, according to i24 journalist Stein. An Israeli source told him: “We will complete the attacks on all the approved targets within a few days.” The source warned: “If we need to, we have a very large pool of targets. There are still many places to attack in Iran.”
• Iranian officials made clear to the Trump administration that they would come back to the negotiating table and discuss their nuclear program on the condition that Israel stops bombing them, according to a senior US official via NYT.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei posted on X that “the Iranian nation isn’t a nation that surrenders.”
• US President Trump posted that Israel and Iran came to him “almost simultaneously” and said “PEACE!”, declaring that he knew the time was now. He said the world and the Middle East were the real winners. Trump added that both nations had much to gain and much to lose if they strayed from the road of righteousness and truth. He said the future for Israel and Iran was unlimited and filled with great promise.

Strikes since ceasefire announcement

• Israeli strikes were continuous as markets headed into Iran's proposed ceasefire time (01:30 BST) vs Trump's guided time (05:00 BST). Iranian media reported that tonight marked the most intense defensive operation since the beginning of Israel’s attacks on Tehran, according to Iran International.
• Iranian strikes continued after 01:30 BST, with several missiles fired towards Israel. Some reports noted an Iranian ballistic missile hitting an Israeli residential building, with three killed.
• An Iraqi military official said an unknown drone targeted the Taji military base north of Baghdad, with no casualties reported, according to the state news agency. Al Hadath reported a drone attack on US bases in Iraq, stating that four Iraqi military bases housing US forces were targeted, and added that there were no human casualties resulting from the attacks on the Iraqi military bases.
• The Israeli military said a fifth wave of missiles had been launched from Iran towards Israel.
• There were reports of the Israeli assassination in Tehran of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Sediqi.
• "Drone strike on radar of air base in southern Iraq", according to Sky News Arabia.

After the ceasefire came into effect

• "Iran fires missiles towards Israel, violating ceasefire announced by Trump", according to BNO Newsroom; " Israeli army: We are monitoring a sixth Iranian attack on Israel", according to Al Jazeera.
• Iran fired the last round of missiles towards Israel before the ceasefire came into effect, according to Iran's SNN.
• US President Trump posts, at 06:09BST/01:09ET, "THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!"
• At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM's office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.

Israel claims Iran has violated the ceasefire agreement

• Times of Israel journalist posts on X "The IDF says it has detected a new launch of ballistic missiles from Iran. Sirens are expected to sound in northern Israel in the coming minutes".
• Israel Finance Minster Smotrich says the ceasefire was violated, one launch was identified from Iran - "Tehran will tremble", via N12 News.
• "Two Iranian missiles were launched at northern Israel and intercepted according to an initial assessment", via Horowitz on X.
• Israel Defence Minister says he instructed the military to respond "forcefully" to Iran's violation of the ceasefire with high-intensity strikes against targets in the heart of Tehran.
• "Iran denies firing missiles at Israel after ceasefire - state media", via Soylu on X.
• Iran Top Security Body says "Iran's armed forces have no trust in the words of its enemies and will keep finger on trigger to respond to any further act of aggression", via Fars News.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: 1Q Current Account Balance, est. -445.5b, prior -303.94b
• 9:00 am: Apr FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.1%
• 9:00 am: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 3.94%, prior 4.07%
• 10:00 am: Jun Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -10, prior -9
• 10:00 am: Jun Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 99.8, prior 98

Central Banks (All Times ET):

• 9:15 am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Monetary Policy
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Powell to Deliver Semiannual Policy Testimony
• 12:30 pm: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
• 1:45 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Town Hall Event
• 2:00 pm: Fed’s Collins Speaks on State of Nation’s Housing
• 4:00 pm: Fed’s Barr Gives Welcoming Remarks
• 8:15 pm: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on the Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap

Despite all the fears over the weekend, over the last 12 hours we've seen a pretty remarkable de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The best scorecard of this has been the price of oil which now trades just below $70/bbl, having opened at just over $80/bbl early yesterday morning in Asia. Brent crude (-7.18%) posted its biggest daily decline since 2022 and is subsequently trading another -2.56% lower this morning at $69.65/bbl, close to the levels before Israel’s strikes against Iran on June 13. Easing geopolitical concerns helped the S&P 500 rebound +0.96%, with futures another +0.55% higher overnight. Easing inflation fears supported bonds, with Treasuries also benefitting from more dovish Fedspeak, more on which later.

To recap developments, shortly after yesterday’s European market close, Iran launched missiles at a US air base in Qatar, but with the attack being well telegraphed and Qatar suspending air traffic shortly before. Markets soon rallied as it became apparent that Iran’s retaliation did not involve energy targets and was likely seeking to avoid any escalatory spiral with US, with reporting that Iran had warned Qatar ahead of the strikes. Later in the US afternoon, Trump posted that there were no casualties from Iran’s “very weak response” while also thanking Iran for “giving us early notice” of the strikes. This was followed by a surprise post by Trump at around 11pm London time last night claiming that Iran and Israel have agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World."

As I write this around 6 hours after the post above, we are yet to hear formal confirmation on the ceasefire from Israel or Iran, with US media reporting that the ceasefire was brokered by Trump in direct conversation with Netanyahu". Iran’s foreign minister posted that Iran has “no intention to continue our response” if Israel stops its aggression but that “as of now, there is NO 'agreement' on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations”. So there are still outstanding questions, from whether a ceasefire will hold given that mutual strikes had continued overnight, to the future of what remains of Iran’s nuclear programme. But as things stand, the past 12 days look set to join the long list of geopolitical shocks that proved temporarily disruptive but had little lasting effect on markets.

Prior to those Middle East developments, the main new story of the day had been on the Fed, as rate cut speculation got further support after comments from Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision. She commented how inflation had come in at or beneath expectations recently, and said “we should recognize that inflation appears to be on a sustained path toward 2 percent and that there will likely be only minimal impacts on overall core PCE inflation from changes to trade policy.” As such, she said that she’d support a rate cut as soon as the next meeting in late July, if “inflation pressures remain contained”. Those remarks meant futures dialled up the likelihood of a July rate cut, rising from 17% before the weekend to 23% by the close, while pricing of rate cut by September rose to 96%, its highest since mid-May. So that really heightens the importance of the next CPI report, as a 5th downside surprise in a row would really keep up the momentum for a rate cut. There has been talk about potential candidates for the Fed Chair role becoming more vocal around dovish thoughts if they believe in them given the President's very public view on what the Fed should do so this may be something to bear in mind in the weeks and months ahead. Powell's term ends in May 2026 but a replacement could be named very soon. Staying with all things Fed and rates related, today, we’ll see Fed Chair Powell appearing before the House Financial Services Committee, so it’ll be interesting to hear his thoughts too but this time the gap between this and last week's FOMC isn't large so new information may not be forthcoming.

With oil prices falling and markets pricing in more rate cuts, this proved good news for US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield down -4.5bps to 3.86% and the 10yr down -2.9bps to 4.35% and another -1.5bps lower overnight. That’s their lowest levels since May 7, before US and China announced a pause in the retaliatory tariffs. Rising rate cut expectations and easing geopolitical risks also drove a big turn around for the dollar, which had climbed by as much as three-quarters of a percent by European lunchtime, but ended the day -0.29% lower.

Another boost to markets yesterday came from the flash PMIs for June. They were broadly in line with expectations, but that cemented the narrative that the global economy was still holding up after Liberation Day, with no obvious signs of a deterioration, even with the 10% baseline tariffs that have been in place. That was echoed across the major economies, with the US composite PMI beating expectations at 52.8 (vs. 52.2 expected), whilst the Euro Area composite PMI held steady at 50.2 (vs. 50.4 expected). So both were still in expansionary territory, although France was an underperformer as its composite PMI fell back to 48.5 (vs. 49.3 expected), remaining in contractionary territory for a 10th consecutive month.

That backdrop proved supportive for US equities, though the impact of the data was dominated by volatility around the Middle East headlines. The S&P 500 had opened with a solid gain, reversed this as reports of imminent Iranian retaliation emerged, but then rallied to close around the day’s highs (+0.96%) to end a run of 3 consecutive declines. Tesla (+8.23%) was the strongest performer in the entire S&P after they launched their robotaxis over the weekend, which in turn helped the Magnificent 7 rise +1.58%. But the advance was pretty broad, with solid gains for the NASDAQ (+0.94%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.11%).

Over in Europe, markets didn’t perform quite as well. In large part that was as markets closed before the more sanguine news out of the Middle East and the big decline in oil played out, but also as European markets didn’t get as much of a benefit from the rate cut speculation centered on the Fed. So by the close, the STOXX 600 was down -0.28%, along with the DAX (-0.35%) and the CAC 40 (-0.69%). Moreover, the bond rally was also more subdued, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and BTPs (-1.5bps) seeing smaller moves than Treasuries.

In Asia the mood is upbeat with the KOSPI (+2.78%) leading the gains led by a jump in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics. Elsewhere the Hang Seng (+1.93%), the CSI (+1.09%), the Shanghai Composite (+1.01%), the Nikkei (+1.07%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.99%) are all experiencing major gains in early trade. S&P 500 (+0.55%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.78%) futures are also higher.

Meanwhile, demand for Japan's 20-year bond auction was marginally below the average of the past year, despite the government's adjustments to its borrowing strategy. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 3.11, stronger than from the last two auctions, but with many expecting a more positive outcome. The sale comes after the Finance Ministry yesterday approved a plan to reduce the volume of 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds sold in regular auctions by a total of ¥3.2 trillion ($22 billion) until the end of March 2026.

In response to the reduction in long-term funding, the ministry plans to enhance the issuance of shorter-term securities, which will include 2-year notes and six-month Treasury bills. These changes will be evident starting from the auctions next month.

To the day ahead now, and aside from Fed Chair Powell’s appearance before the House Financial Services Committee mentioned above, there will be attention on the annual NATO summit being held in the Hague today and tomorrow. This is expected to confirm a 5% of GDP spending target, including 3.5% on core defence spending, up from 2% before. Our European economists have previewed the summit and its fiscal implications here. Today Germany is also set to unveil its spending plan, with reporting yesterday that this will aim for an increase in core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP in 2029 and amount to a pretty speedy ramp up in spending already in 2025.

Other events today include central bank speak from the Fed’s Hamack, Williams, Kashkari, Collins, Barr and Schmid, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Kazimir and Lane, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Greene, Ramsden, Pill and Breeden. Data releases include US Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June in the US, the Ifo’s business climate indicator for June in Germany, and Canada’s CPI for May. Finally, the NATO summit will begin.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 08:33

3 US States Register High Share Of 'Seriously Underwater' Mortgages: Report

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi topped the list of states with the highest share of “seriously underwater” mortgages—properties with loan balances exceeding their market value by at least 25 percent—real estate analytics company ATTOM said in a June 20 statement.

In Q1 2025, 2.8 percent of mortgages nationwide were classified as being seriously underwater, up from 2.5 percent in Q4 2024.

“Louisiana remains the state with the highest percentage of seriously underwater mortgages, though the percentage improved from 11.3 percent to 10.5 percent from Q1 2024 and Q1 2025,” said the statement.

“In Louisiana, one in every 10 mortgages are seriously underwater,” ATTOM added. “The counties with the highest percent of mortgages seriously underwater are Vernon, Saint Martin, Iberville, and Webster.”

The rate of such mortgages in Kentucky and Mississippi was 7.3 percent and 6.6 percent respectively.

As with Louisiana, the rate dipped in both these states on an annual basis.

Virginia had the lowest level, where only one in 51 mortgages are considered underwater. This was followed by Alaska and Vermont.

Underwater mortgages pose various challenges to homeowners, like difficulty in selling, said an April 25 report from Rocket Mortgage.

People typically use sale proceeds from their current property to pay the down payment on their next house. But in the case of underwater homes, there isn’t enough money to pay off the existing mortgage. The owner has to cough up additional funds for the balance amount.

This impacts their ability to make the down payment on their next home. Moreover, refinancing an underwater mortgage can be quite difficult, said the report.

While the rate of “seriously underwater” mortgages rose in Q1, the share of residential properties considered “equity-rich” dropped quarter-wise, ATTOM said in a May 8 statement.

Equity-rich homes have loan amounts that make up only up to half of the estimated market value of the properties.

In Q1, 46.2 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered to be equity-rich, down from 47.7 percent in Q4, 2024.

Despite the drop, ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said the dip in the proportion of equity-rich homes “shouldn’t cause too much concern.”

“Home equity rates are near their highest points in recent years,” he said. “In each of the two previous years, the first quarter marked the lowest point of the year before the proportion of equity-rich homes shot back up in the second quarter.”

Dealing With Underwater Mortgages

According to a June 2024 post by financial services company Lending Tree, people with underwater mortgages have a few options to handle the situation.

First, they can check whether any lenders offer debt restructuring that would modify the loan terms or temporarily allow deferring monthly payments. This could make the mortgage more manageable.

Another option is to file for bankruptcy to liquidate any assets that could resolve the debt. The downside of this option is that bankruptcies negatively affect credit scores.

Homes that are underwater are also at a greater risk of foreclosure. When homeowners stop making payments for a certain period of time, lenders repossess the property and sell it off to recoup the loan amount.

Foreclosure filings had risen by 11 percent in Q1 compared to the previous quarter, according to an April 11 statement from ATTOM.

The rise in underwater mortgages and foreclosures is happening amid expectations that home values would decline this year.

In a June 12 statement, real estate marketplace Zillow predicted home values to dip by 1.4 percent, attributing the fall largely to an increase in housing inventory.

“Elevated mortgage rates and concerns about a weakening labor market are expected to continue holding some buyers back. Despite sellers returning to the housing market this year, sales are expected to lag, putting downward pressure on prices,” Zillow said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 08:05

Got Beef? 12-Year Cycle Signals "Cyclical Low"

The U.S. beef industry operates on 12-year herd cycles, with the last herd low in 2014 and the beef packer margin trough in 2015. The current herd liquidation began in 2019, and as of the start of 2025, the nation's cattle herd stands at 86.7 million, the lowest level since the 1950s.

Herd rebuilding trends may begin soon, according to Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson, who cited support from high calf prices and low feed costs, though herds appear tight for the foreseeable future. They expect this dynamic to keep beef packer margins depressed due to reduced slaughter volumes and elevated live cattle prices.

Beef cycles typically last about twelve years on average, looking at trough-to-trough in the cattle herd. The prior trough in the herd occurred in 2014, while the prior trough in beef packer margins occurred in 2015. The current herd liquidation cycle began in 2019, with the herd tracking at ~86.7mm as of January 1, 2025, the lowest level since the 1950s. Herd rebuilding may already be underway, or is likely soon, noting supportive industry conditions (high calf prices and low feed costs), which should further constrain supply in the near-term, partially offset by record weights for cattle on feed.

As a result, we expect beef packer margins to remain depressed in the near-term due to lower slaughter volumes and high live cattle prices. That said, herd retention will set up the industry better for the longer term, and effectively starts the clock for more normalized margins in about two years given the breeding timeline, with better visibility likely in a few quarters.

TSN's beef operating margins track with industry packer margins, while its stock has a moderate correlation as well, noting the stock started to work in advance of the beef-driven earnings recovery in 2016. Additionally, the relationship has already started to decouple in the current cycle, owing to the strength of its diversified business mix across proteins (including prepared foods with greater margin stability).

Analysts posed the question: "When will the beef cycle turn?" — one we've been asking at ZeroHedge, too.

Here's a visual breakdown of the beef industry's turning points, as charted by the analysts:

"We also believe the cyclical low in beef profitability is creating an attractive entry point for patient investors in Buy-rated TSN," the analysts noted. 

During Tyson Foods' earnings call in early May, Brady Stewart—head of Tyson's beef and pork supply chains—offered insights into what may be the emerging bottom in U.S. cattle supplies, which have fallen to their lowest levels in over 70 years. His comments came in response to a question from one Wall Street analyst.

Stewart explained that while cattle supply remains down year-over-year, record-high animal weights are helping to offset the decline in volume. He added that the U.S. cattle industry is likely at or near the bottom of its inventory cycle, with herd levels now at a 73-year low.

At the start of the year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's annual Cattle Inventory report revealed that the nation's cattle supply had fallen to a 73-year low, totaling about 86.7 million head.

At the supermarket, USDA data from the end of May showed the average price for a pound of ground beef reached yet another record high of nearly $6 a pound. 

While analysts expect a cyclical low in the beef cycle, that doesn't mean the industry is out of the woods just yet—tight supplies and elevated prices are likely to persist for years. Now is the time for consumers to secure local supply chains, even if that means getting to know the rancher down the road.

The rise of the 'MAHA' movement is accelerating this shift, as more Americans turn to clean, locally raised beef and reject products from globalist-owned food conglomerates. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 07:45

Beyond Beyond Meat: Lab Grown Meat Has Now Arrived For Sale In 3 Countries

Is this what's beyond Beyond Meat?

Australia just gave lab-grown meat the official thumbs-up, approving the sale of cultivated Japanese quail and joining the elite global club of… three. That’s right—only Singapore, the U.S., and now Australia are on board with selling meat that’s never had feathers, feet, or a heartbeat, Bloomberg wrote last week. 

Sydney-based startup Vow is behind the venture and says it’ll start serving up foie gras, parfait, and other fancy dishes made from quail cells in select restaurants within weeks. This follows a long-overdue tweak to the country's food standards code, years in the making.

The science behind it? Cultivating animal cells in vats instead of raising entire animals, allegedly to save the planet and spare some lives. Noble goals, sure. But the cultivated meat industry hasn’t exactly been thriving. Funding is drying up, scaling remains a headache, and the political pushback—especially in the U.S.—has turned into a sideshow.

“While other markets face regulatory uncertainty, Australia is embracing innovation and consumers are ready to try something new and delicious,” Vow CEO George Peppou said, clearly feeling good about being the new kid on the bioreactor block.

Vow’s lab-grown quail will show up under its Forged brand at places like NEL in Sydney and Bottarga in Melbourne. Meanwhile, in Singapore, where Vow already operates, the company claims 200% month-over-month growth. Though when your starting point is a couple of upscale restaurant menus, that math isn’t exactly hard to beat.

Production is still a drop in the bucket compared to the real meat market, but Vow promises to hit 10.8 tons a month by year’s end. The company’s managed to raise more than $70 million from investors including Blackbird, Square Peg, and Peakbridge—suggesting at least some people are betting that cell-cultured quail is more than a novelty.

Still, whether diners will bite—or keep biting once the novelty wears off—remains the real question. It’s one thing to get approval; it’s another to convince people their $45 foie gras came from a vat and not a bird, and that’s a good thing.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 04:15