Futures Hit Record High As Oil Tumbles After Bessent Says Hormuz May "Reopen Tomorrow"

S&P futures are trading at all time high with the latest push higher triggered by comments from Scott Bessent on CNBC who echoed Trump in saying that "we may have Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz" (or we may not). The Nasdaq also looks set to extend Monday’s gains: As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4% to an all time high of 7655 and Nasdaq futures rise 1.1%, as Palantir soared 16% pre-market after upping its forecasts, while Caterpillar rose 9% on an earnings beat. Semis are leading the Tech tape with Mag7 (DRAM, EWY, SMH, SOXX all higher by at least 1.6%) while Mag 7 are mixed: Amazon (AMZN) falls 2% after founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.07 billion of stock (Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Microsoft -2%). Cyclicals are leading Defensives with healthcare/staples lower pre-market. Bond yields are slide 2-3 bps on the drop in oil prices, and the USD is stronger as is USDJPY following a catastrophic 10Y JGB auction while intervention is not expected to have a lasting impact and the market is likely signaling the need for BOJ to hike. In commodities, WTI tumbles on Bessent's comments that we may have a deal to reopen Hormuz tomorrow (we won't) with WTI sliding as low as $76. Base metals are higher with Precious metals spiking and Ags bid. It’s a busy day, with earnings this morning from McDonald’s and Caterpillar, and the AI trade front and center this afternoon as AMD and SpaceX report. Today’s macro data focus is on JOLTS and trade balance. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Amazon (AMZN) falls 2% after founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.07 billion of stock (Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Microsoft -2%). 

• Ameresco (AMRC) rallies 30% after the energy company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• BioNTech SE (BNTX) falls 3% after the company lowered its revenue outlook as demand for its Covid-19 vaccine shrank more than expected.
• Caterpillar (CAT) posted second-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street expectations as the company’s power-generation business continued to post strong growth off the back of data center spending. Shares are up 8%.
• DuPont de Nemours (DD) falls 3% after the chemicals company reported second-quarter results and gave a full-year forecast.
• McDonald’s (MCD) climbs about 2% after the fast-food restaurant owner and operator posted second quarter results.
• Nike (NKE) falls 3% after JPMorgan cut its recommendation on the sportswear and sneaker company to underweight, noting financial impacts from the company’s “Win Now” business strategy.
• Onsemi (ON) rises 7% after the chipmaker’s second-quarter revenue and earnings beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that AI data-center demand is boosting results.
• Palantir (PLTR) jumps 15% after the company boosted full-year revenue and income forecasts and described commercial demand for its data analytics tools as “otherworldly.”
• Powell Industries (POWL) drops 11% after the maker of circuit breakers and other electrical equipment posted fiscal third-quarter EPS and revenue that missed expectations.
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) falls 5% after the maker of industrial automation products posted third quarter results and provided a year forecast.
• Snap (SNAP) gains 5% after the the social media platform posted higher-than-projected quarterly sales and gave an upbeat forecast for the current period. The results signal optimism ahead of the September commercial debut of its first pair of augmented reality glasses.
• Spotify (SPOT) falls 4% after the music streaming service’s third-quarter monthly active users and operating income forecasts missed the average analyst estimate.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) rises 15% after the defense company raised its revenue outlook for the full year.
• Wayfair (W) falls 3% after the online furniture and home goods retailer posted second quarter results.

Corporate news is also busy, with Prologis set to buy UK REIT Segro for about £14 billion ($18.8 billion) and Williams reaching an agreement to buy Momentum Midstream through a deal valued up to $5.5 billion. HSBC’s CEO said the bank will consider boosting its bonus pool for bankers if strong performance continues. In AI news, the White House plans to host leading companies today to discuss a safety framework. Competition is heating up, especially from Chinese AI models, creating what’s been described as a death zone for anyone without frontier-pushing technology or market-breaking pricing. And AI is also shaking up the VC market, with money flowing disproportionately to top-tier investors that backed the technology early.

The rebound in US tech followed a volatile month as investors questioned whether billions of dollars of spending on artificial intelligence will translate into stronger growth and profits (they will... for Chinese AI models). The positive earnings season so far has eased some of those concerns, although the reality is masked under hundreds of billions in new debt. S&P 500 companies are beating expectations at a rate of 86%, the highest in five years, while year-on-year growth in earnings per share is running at 29%. Specifically, of the 322 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this season, 86% have beaten analysts’ EPS forecasts, while 10% have missed. 68% of companies have positively surprised on sales, while 16% have missed.

“The combination of resilient economic growth, strong corporate earnings and AI-driven investment continues to provide a favorable backdrop for equities,” said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. “While investors are right to scrutinize elevated capital spending by hyperscalers and monitor developments in the Middle East, we believe these risks will be offset by the powerful earnings tailwind.”

However, as Bloomberg cautions, one potential pitfall for markets comes when SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company later Tuesday. It also sets the stage for one of the largest share unlocks in capital markets history, with as much as $116 billion of stock becoming eligible for sale for the first time next month. SpaceX stock is about 15% lower than its closing price on June 11, when the shares started trading.

“The bigger issue for SpaceX remains the looming share overhang,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “There is a sense that many investors remain interested in owning the stock but are waiting for the selling pressure associated with these lock-up expiries to begin fading.”

Elon’s rocket company isn’t profitable and has a very speculative model, so the results may end up raising more questions than they answer according to Bloomberg. Volatility could also be increased by technical factors: With a low free float, 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, according to S3 Research data, amounting to 34% short interest as percentage of the float.

Total assets in US-listed leveraged ETFs have retreated from highs, reducing the market impact from daily rebalancing. Still, rotation trades are creating pain points for hedge fund consensus long versus short trades. And while US equities look fairly resilient on the surface, positioning data point to limited investor conviction, particularly within small caps, according to Citigroup strategists. 

In hedge funds, Coatue Management’s fund plunged 8.3% last month, marking the latest technology-focused money manager to be whipsawed after the AI rout. Today’s Big Take looks at how a tax strategy for the rich built the world’s largest hedge fund. 

The Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% as mining and technology shares lead gains, while retail and consumer products stocks are the biggest laggards.Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• The Stoxx 600 basic resources index is the best-performing sector in the European stocks benchmark after copper advanced to the highest in two months
• BP Plc shares are up as much as 1.7% after the British oil major reported adjusted Ebit for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Johnson Matthey rallied as much as 5.2% in London after Jefferies reinstated the chemicals company buy, noting full-year earnings that beat the banks expectations and the Cormetech acquisition
• Travis Perkins shares surge as much as 19%, the most since April 2020, following first-half results that analysts say showed encouraging signs against a tough macro backdrop
• Zalando falls as much as 18%, the most since 2018, after the German online retailer narrowed its FY guidance alongside its second-quarter numbers
• Lufthansa shares drop as much as 11%, the most since March. The carrier reported a miss on second-quarter Ebit driven mostly by higher fuel costs
• Acciona SA shares fell as much as 10% to €208.20, the lowest level since March, after shareholder Tussen de Grachten BV sold about 1.65 million ordinary shares at €217.90 per share
• Fresenius Medical Care shares drop as much as 9.6%, the most in roughly three months, after the German company reported weaker-than-expected US dialysis volume in the second quarter
• Smith & Nephew shares drop as much as 7.9%, the most since November, after the medical-device maker reported weaker-than-expected revenue and cut its revenue growth outlook for the full year
• Adidas drops as much as 3.1%, underperforming the Stoxx 600’s consumer products and services subgroup, after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, citing “no clear catalysts to support a further re-rating”
• Metro Bank shares fall as much as 12%, the most in more than a year, as weaker fee income overshadowed improved profitability and prompted RBC to trim its earnings estimates and price target

Earlier, Asiam stocks edged lower for a second straight session, as declines in Taiwan’s TSMC and Japanese bank shares overshadowed an afternoon rebound of South Korean chipmakers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2% after earlier gains, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, SoftBank and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial also among the biggest decliners. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Hong Kong and India retreated. South Korea and Japan staged an afternoon comeback as key chip stocks, including SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Kioxia, rebounded. Chip stocks moved up after a Counterpoint Research report said rising DRAM prices are boosting the outlook for memory-chip makers. “We expect pent-up demand driven by Agentic AI and AI server CPU growth to lift prices further for conventional DRAM,” according to the report. China’s ChiNext, meanwhile, rose 5.6%, led by optical transceiver makers tracking US peers, as investors grew more optimistic about the impact of Nvidia’s rollout of its co-packaged optics platform.

In FX, yen gains are being reversed with USD/JPY approaching 158 as intervention efforts are being used as an opportunity to reload on yen shorts rather than turn the tide for the currency.

In commodities, Brent oil tumbles 3% on Bessent's comments during a CNBC interview that a Hormuz deal may come as soon as tomorrow (he is now used to emphasize Trump commentary which the market no longer believes). Lower energy prices are also boosting fixed income markets with gilts leading the declines. US yields are down 2-3bps across the curve. Also of note for bonds was the extremely poor 10-year JGB auction overnight.Precious metals have pared upside with spot gold now down 0.1%. Bitcoin sheds 0.4%. 

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve as US day begins with futures off session lows. Price action was broadly steady overnight as oil prices stabilized, with WTI crude up around 0.4% after President Donald Trump threatened Iran with renewed air strikes. IG credit issuance is expected to remain busy this week. Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, following similar losses for gilts during London session with oil prices edging higher. US 10-year is around 4.695% with bunds outperforming by around 3bp in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Six borrowers priced almost $8 billion on Monday, with at least one borrower standing down. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.3 times covered. This week’s dealer forecasts call for a sharp pickup vs last week, with about $50 billion of new US investment-grade transactions projected

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes June trade balance (8:30am), June factory orders with durable goods revision and June JOLTS job openings (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Schmid at 8:15pm.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The Trump administration is drafting a ban on U.S. imports of new models of Chinese data center components, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters, as it seeks to protect the infrastructure that undergirds the AI boom. RTRS
• Chinese officials are growing concerned about the potential for Anthropic’s Mythos and other US AI models to be used as an offensive weapon, people familiar said. BBG
• The yen continued to unwind its intervention gains and Treasuries fell. Oil rose after Donald Trump pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today, or face devastating air strikes. BBG
• Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the US holds the country’s economic policies in high regard, sidestepping questions on whether Washington helped strengthen the yen. BBG
• Oil prices look too low as disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to persist, MLIV said. Prediction markets also show little optimism that shipments will resume anytime soon. BBG
• Michigan Democrats vote today in a high-profile Senate primary between moderate Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive Abdul El-Sayed. The winner will face Donald Trump-backed Mike Rogers. Virginia, Kansas, Missouri and Washington also hold primaries. BBG
• Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general seems set to advance in the Senate Judiciary Committee today after he agreed to rescind an order creating a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, winning over holdout Republican senators. BBG
• China’s AI blitz is rapidly narrowing the gap with Silicon Valley — creating what’s been described as a “death zone” for anyone without frontier-pushing technology or market-breaking pricing. BBG
• China’s below-normal crude imports may persist if Middle East supply disruptions continue. BBG
• US Senate voted 89-4 to advance stopgap funding bill which would fund the US government through to December 11th.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall Street, where all major indices rallied, and the Dow notched a record close amid lower oil prices and yields, following Trump's strike cancellation and touted US-Iran talks, while he even suggested they are discussing opening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today. ASX 200 outperformed with the advances led by strength in tech and the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 wiped out early gains and dipped into negative territory with a lack of bullish catalysts overnight. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid the choppy performances in its tech giants. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid very few fresh catalysts and with China said to be growing anxious that Anthropic’s Mythos could be wielded against its economy, while better-than-expected HSBC earnings failed to inspire its shares in Hong Kong.x

Top Asian News

• Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said the pass-through of rising costs on goods prices has been limited so far and June overall CPI shows price rises remain moderate Y/Y. The minister added that the Government shares with BoJ the forecast that consumer inflation will accelerate in the latter half of this year and slow thereafter. Hopes the BoJ conducts monetary policy appropriately to stably and sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target and that the BoJ closely communicates with the government in guiding policy.

European bourses continue to climb, with the FTSE MIB the outperformer. Not much in terms of a broader driver; plenty of corporate earnings were on the docket this morning, while another day of no strikes between the US and Iran brightens hopes of a sustained end to the conflict. Sectors are mixed. Basic Resources top the sector pile, followed by Tech and Industrial Goods & Services. Retail is the sector laggard, with Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services rounding out the underperformers. Weighing on Retail is the earnings from Zalando (-15.5%), in which Q2 revenue missed estimates and narrowed its FY26 adj. EBIT guidance. 

Top European News

• Bayer (+3.4%), Q2 revenue and Adj. EBITDA beat estimates and confirms FY26 view; 
• Continental (-1.5%), FY26 revenue guidance missed estimates and highlighted that raw material costs are set to substantially increase; 
• Lufthansa (-9.5%), cuts FY26 adj. EBIT guidance and notes heightened levels of forecasting uncertainty; 
• HSBC (-1.0%), Q2 PBT and Net beat estimates and announces a USD 1bln share buyback programme; 
• BP (+1.0%), Q2 revenue beat and announces its intention to sell Archaea.

FX

• DXY sees relatively quiet trade thus far, trading on either side of the 100 mark in a narrow 99.93-100.06 range at the time of writing, deriving little support from the firmer oil prices, albeit WTI sees shallower gains than Brent (see Commodities update). Analysts at ING meanwhile posit “Unless ADP tomorrow and, more importantly, payrolls on Friday point to a clearly weakening jobs market … we do not expect the dollar to fall much further in the near term. Uncertainty over the next stage of US-Iran negotiations may also help limit downside pressure on oil prices.” DXY has topped yesterday’s 100.02 high but remains well within Friday’s 100.46 high and above the 100 DMA (99.73).
• EUR and GBP are also uneventful amid a lack of macro and domestic drivers this morning. EUR/USD found support at 1.1500 on Monday after slipping from a 1.1559 high, shy of its 100 DMA, which today resides at 1.1563 (vs 1.1568 yesterday). GBP/USD is tucked in a 1.3419-1.3439 range, well within yesterday’s 1,3418-1.3506 band but still above a small cluster of DMAs, with the 100 DMA at 1.3399 and 200 DMA at 1.3396, providing some reinforcement around the 1.3400 round figure.
• JPY is once again interesting, with USD/JPY continuing its mild recovery from post-intervention lows, but remains beneath the 158.00 level, with very few fresh catalysts and a lack of tier-1 data overnight and in the European morning. USD/JPY resides in a current 157.14-157.80 range at the time of writing, just shy of yesterday’s 157.93 high and the 200 DMA at 157.95.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with AUD gaining and standing out across G10 peers, with strength seen overnight following stronger-than-expected Household Spending data, whilst gains in gold and copper could also be lending support. AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain within yesterday’s ranges, whilst AUD/NZD has gained and resides closer to the top end of a 1.1918-1..1969 range, above yesterday’s 1.1961 high.
• BoJ data showed an expected shortfall of JPY 3.38tln in money market conditions (exp. shortfall between JPY 2.32-2.6tln). Data suggest that Japan may not have intervened in the FX market on Monday.

Fixed Income

• A mostly contained European morning for fixed income, after pressure seen in APAC trade in JGBs and to extent other peers after a particularly poor 10yr Japanese auction.
• As mentioned, the main point thus far was the dismal Japanese 10yr auction, featuring a lower b/c but pertinently a sizable price tail. Results sparked pressure in JGBs of near 70 ticks, to a 126.36 low. Since, the benchmark has recovered for the most part, but remains lower by just over 10 ticks and as such underperforms.
• For reference, no move to a BoJ research paper on the JGB market, where the headline points echoed commentary from Ueda in last week’s press conference.
• Bunds firmer by a handful of ticks, saw some modest pressure overnight alongside the JGB move (as did USTs), but only fleeting with the fundamentals and dynamics a very different story. The day ahead for Europe is light, and thus the benchmark will likely conform to the lead from USTs around US events, and geopolitical updates more generally. At the midpoint of a relatively narrow 124.68-92 band.
• USTs look to a few data points, alongside commentary from Fed’s Paulson. But, action is more likely to be dictated by any geopolitical developments, after President Trump’s relatively constructive commentary on the conversations with the US; however, CBS reported that only the ongoing mediator-led talks are planned. As with Bunds, flat in a c. five tick range, holding just above the 108-10+ low.
• Gilts conform, opened with gains of a few ticks, and has since slipped to a 87.04 base, lower by around 25 ticks. Pressure is a function of the modest strength seen in energy (despite it coming off highs in the early morning). No reaction was seen following the 2032 tap.
• The UK sells GBP 4.25bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.34x, average yield 4.613%, tail 0.2bps.
• Japan sells JPY 1.98tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 2.56x (prev. 3.13x), average yield 2.840% (prev. 2.729%), Tail in price 0.46 vs prev. 0.20.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, President Trump said talks with Iran were ongoing and suggested the Strait of Hormuz could reopen by Tuesday, although US officials clarified that no new negotiations were planned beyond existing mediator-led discussions. Tensions remain high, with reports of Iranian drone attacks on a US base in Kuwait and vessels near the Strait, including a cargo ship struck off Oman. Iran warned that continued efforts to break the blockade could put US forces and vessels at serious risk, while Iranian leaders reportedly believe they can withstand US pressure and raise costs through regional proxies and threats to shipping. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister is expected to visit Islamabad.
• WTI Sep'26 and Brent Oct'26 are firmer amid geopolitics but to varying magnitudes, with the former currently +2.2% intraday and the latter +3%. The difference in gains could potentially be a function of President Trump yesterday criticising major oil companies, saying they were making excessive profits and urging them to lower retail fuel prices. The mechanism being: if US refiners are forced to lower fuel prices while crude costs remain elevated, refining margins shrink, prompting them to reduce crude processing to balance books and, in turn, lowering demand for WTI crude. Nonetheless, WTI trades around the top of a USD 79.62-82.28/bbl range vs yesterday’s USD 78.43-81.30/bbl range. Brent resides within a USD 83.80-86.33/bbl range vs Monday’s 81.55-84.66/bbl range. Dutch TTF is back above EUR 59/MWh, having traded under EUR 58/MWh
• Metals are firmer across the board as DXY remains contained despite the gains across crude, with precious and base metals benefiting from the current stability in oil prices under July highs as President Trump continues to tout diplomacy with Iran, and with no further escalations seen thus far this European morning. Spot gold remains under yesterday’s USD 4,019-4,079/oz range within a current USD 4,043-4,073/oz range. Base metals also benefit across the board, with 3M LME copper back above USD 14k/t in the current 13,871.88- 14,049.30/t range at the time of writing.
• Saudi Aramco - Q2 adj. net income +33% Y/Y to USD 33.4bln (exp. 31.1bln). Benchmark Brent crude averaged approximately USD 97/bbl during the quarter as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the US-Iran conflict, caused the largest oil supply disruption on record, with Aramco redirecting the bulk of its exports via the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea. Elevated refined-product prices provided an additional margin tailwind, sustaining returns even as Brent temporarily retreated below USD 75/bbl following an interim ceasefire agreement. It flagged mounting risk to Red Sea export volumes as Houthi militants threaten attacks on tankers using that route.
• Saudi Aramco CEO said global oil inventories could take about 18 months to recover following supply disruptions.
• Oman crude for October delivery priced at USD 83.51/bbl, according to state news.
• Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trade within an USD 80–90/bbl range until a new US-Iran agreement is confirmed or attacks escalate significantly.

Trade/Tariffs

• Japan and Mexico agreed to strengthen energy cooperation, with Japan and Mexico aiming to hold first high-level economic dialogue this fiscal year, according to Kyodo

Central Banks

• BoK Minutes stated that one member said timing and pace of any further rate hikes should be determined with primary emphasis on inflation.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian President said Tehran would defend its borders but does not seek to expand the war, according to state media.
• Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said if the blockade continues, US vessels and forces will face serious risks and casualties.
• Arab media reported explosions and fires occurred at US bases in Kuwait, according to Fars News Agency. This was later confirmed by i24, in which the IRGC attacked a US base in Kuwait using 3 drones, according to a source.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Al Khasab, in which a cargo vessel broadcasted that they had been hit by an unknown projectile. More recently, a dry bulk vessel was reportedly hit by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, according to a maritime security source.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine, on August 4th, struck a major Russian oil refinery 800km from the border, attacking the Syzran oil refinery (170k BPD). A major fire broke out on the premises, RBC Ukraine reported.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea slammed US-led naval exercise and vowed to respond with deterrence of a new level, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun Trade Balance, est. -73b, prior -77.6b
• 10:00 am: Jun Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior -1.3%
• 10:00 am: Jun JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7453.5k, prior 7594k
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After several weeks of military exchanges and fears of a renewed energy shock, markets have started August welcoming the late weekend comments from President Trump that fresh talks with Iran would begin after he cancelled plans for what he described as a major attack. That optimism was reinforced by suggestions from Iranian officials that negotiations between Iran and Oman over “temporary” shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, offering a potential path towards improved oil flows. Even Trump’s post as Europe went home that “Iranian Leadership is unbelievably duplicitous”, which came following Iranian comments that they were not currently negotiating with the US, didn’t spoil things. Trump also said that his latest offer of talks was a “last chance” for Iran but that didn’t derail improved market optimism on Hormuz shipping amid the renewed focus on diplomacy.  

So for one day at least markets enjoyed something they haven't had much of this summer: falling oil prices, lower inflation expectations, stronger growth data, declining bond yields, and rising equities all at the same time. A nice way to start August even if you feel it could go either way very quickly.

The biggest move was in energy yesterday. Brent crude fell -4.73% to $83.77/bbl (adjusting for the benchmark month change), whilst WTI dropped -5.11% to $80.34/bbl. This morning, they are edging back +1.42% and +1.12% higher respectively. European natural gas futures also declined -1.80% yesterday. 

The reaction in inflation markets was also strong. The US 1yr inflation swap fell -5.5bps to 1.86%, its lowest since September 2024, whilst the Eurozone 1yr inflation swap declined -3.3bps to 2.36%. So markets are dismantling a chunk of the near-term inflation premium that had built up through July as the conflict intensified. Real yields moved lower too, with the US 30yr falling -3.6bps to 3.00%. 
Government bonds were immediate beneficiaries. The 10yr Treasury yield fell -5.8bps to 4.68%, whilst 10yr bund yields (-5.5bps) declined to 3.15%. Gilts outperformed both, with the UK 10yr yield down -9.6bps to 4.95%, making them one of the strongest-performing major developed market assets on the day and their best day since May 20. 10yr BTP yields (-8.6bps) weren’t far behind, also registering their largest daily decline since late May. 

However, unlike several of the recent oil-driven rallies, yesterday's move wasn't occurring against a backdrop of weakening growth. In fact the opposite was true. The US ISM manufacturing survey rose to 55.6 in July, its highest reading since May 2022 and comfortably above the 53.9 expectation. The employment component (52.8 vs 50.0 expected) moved into expansion territory for the first time since September 2023, whilst new orders was strong (56.7 and in-line). Not even prices paid remaining at an elevated 71.1 (roughly in line with expectations, but easing back from 73.0) dampened the mood. The associated commentary suggested the booming activity was linked to semiconductors, AI, defence, and high-performance computing. In other data, the Fed’s latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey painted a picture of buoyant lending to corporates, even if there were some pockets of softness on the household side. 

That combination of lower oil and stronger growth proved a very supportive backdrop for equities. The S&P 500 rose +1.48% to close just -0.12% below its record high from June 2. The Nasdaq Composite gained +2.13% and the Dow added +1.32%. The standout performer was the Magnificent Seven, which rallied +3.56%, posting its largest daily gain since March 31, with all bar Apple (-1.78%) up around +3% or more. Moreover, coupled with the tech rebound late last week, the Mag-7 recorded its best 3-day run (+8.98%) since May 2025, when the US and China agreed on their trade truce. Interestingly that enthusiasm didn't extend as much into the semiconductor space, with the Philly Semi Index (+1.05%) underperforming the broader market after losing -20.6% in July. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose +0.45%, the DAX gained +1.45% and the CAC 40 advanced +1.22%. 

This morning, focus continues to be on the yen story, which stabilised after its early Monday spike that we wrote about yesterday. The yen ended yesterday’s session up +0.19% to 157.10 against the USD, having traded below 155.50 early on Monday. And this morning it is -0.27% lower trading at 157.63 against the dollar, still far from the 163 level before the intervention last Thursday.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower overnight with the KOSPI (-0.96%) again the weakest performer, despite recovering some of its early losses, while the Nikkei (-0.33%) and Hang Seng (-0.49%) are also on the softer side. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are outperforming their regional counterparts, supported by a rebound in technology stocks following yesterday’s selloff. At the time of writing, both the CSI 300 (+0.94%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.18%) are trading higher. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+1.29%) is posting strong gains, driven by a rally in lithium miners and strength in commodity-linked shares, which is more than offsetting weakness in other sectors. S&P 500 (+0.22%) and Nasdaq (+0.38%) futures are up along with the Stoxx (+0.34%) equivalent. 

Early morning data showed that South Korea's consumer inflation eased to a three-month low, with prices rising 2.8% year-over-year in July, down from 3.2% in June and 3.0% expected. Core was a tenth higher than expected at 2.6% YoY. 

Away from the macro picture, one of the more eye-catching corporate stories came from healthcare after reports that AstraZeneca (-8.96% yesterday) has explored a potential acquisition of Bristol-Myers Squibb (+0.24%), which would rank as the largest pharmaceutical deal ever completed. Defence stocks also remained in focus after Northrop Grumman secured agreements worth up to $3bn related to missile interceptor production, a reminder that even if diplomacy is making a comeback, the geopolitical backdrop remains anything but normal. 

To the day ahead now, the main US data will be the JOLTS report, followed by June trade balance and factory orders. We’ll also get France’s June budget balance YTD, Italy June retail sales. Earnings include SpaceX, AMD, HSBC, Booking, Pfizer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 08:30

Caterpillar Erupts As Quarterly Sales Top $20 Billion For First Time Amid AI Data Center Boom

Caterpillar shares jumped in pre-market trading after reporting a second-quarter beat, driven by strong growth in its heavy machinery, power and energy business amid the data center buildout, reshoring, and other activities reindustrializing the nation under the Trump administration.

Revenue soared 24% from one year ago to $20.54 billion, exceeding the $19.01 billion Bloomberg consensus estimate. Machinery, power and energy revenue climbed 25% to $19.58 billion, while operating income surged 51% to $4.21 billion, well above the $3.5 billion estimate.

Financial Products operating income rose 24% to $263 million, beating Wall Street expectations, though the segment's $962 million in revenue missed forecasts. Research and development spending increased 12% to $616 million.

Here's a snapshot of Caterpillar's second-quarter results, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Revenue $20.54 billion, +24% y/y, estimate $19.01 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Financial segment revenue $962 million, +7.5% y/y, estimate $982.8 million
• Machinery, Power & Energy revenue $19.58 billion, +25% y/y, estimate $18.13 billion
• Machinery, Power & Energy operating income $4.21 billion, +51% y/y, estimate $3.5 billion
• Financial Products operating income $263 million, +24% y/y, estimate $248.1 million

R&D expenses $616 million, +12% y/y, estimate $602.5 million

"This is the first time in company history that we have generated over $20 billion in sales and revenues in a single quarter," Caterpillar CEO Joe Creed wrote in a statement.

Creed continued, "This milestone underscores both the essential work our customers do every day and the dedication of Caterpillar employees worldwide to solving our customers' toughest challenges. Strong order rates and a growing backlog reflect broadening momentum across all three of our primary segments."

Caterpillar shares surged nearly 8% in premarket trading, suggesting the company cleared the high bar set by investors. This morning's surge follows a 23% decline last month, the stock's worst performance since 2009, as concerns about data-center spending fueled a broader selloff across power-equipment companies.

Last week, Michael Burry announced we shorted Caterpillar for the first time ...

*MICHAEL BURRY SAYS HE SHORTED CATERPILLAR FOR THE FIRST TIME

*BURRY SAYS HE SHORTED TESLA, NVIDIA AND APPLIED MATERIALS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 30, 2026

Read the note where Morgan Stanley expects $1 trillion hyperscaler capex this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:45

Saudi Aramco Profit Soars As CEO Warns Hormuz Closure Removes 100 Million Barrels A Week

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil producer by volume, reported a 33% jump in second-quarter profits on Tuesday as the war-driven surge in Brent crude, which averaged $97 a barrel, boosted earnings. The company maintained export flows by redirecting crude around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea.

Adjusted net income for the quarter surged to $33.4 billion from $25.2 billion a year earlier, beating the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $31.1 billion. Aramco sold oil at an average of $108.10 a barrel, up from $66.70, while Brent averaged nearly $97 during the quarter.

Aramco heavily relied on its East-West Pipeline, storage facilities, and Red Sea energy terminals to maintain export flows as the Hormuz chokepoint came to a standstill for the quarter. Nevertheless, liquids production plunged 28% to 7.57 million barrels a day, while natural gas output tumbled 16%.

The East-West Pipeline shows how critical an alternative route to transport energy products has become for U.S.-allied countries in the Gulf, as a once-in-a-generation infrastructure buildout, whether a new pipeline or expanded capacity of legacy ones to new ports, is set to be underway. This, in itself, will erode Tehran's leverage on the Hormuz in the years ahead.

Aramco maintained its $21.9 billion base dividend despite generating just $12.3 billion in free cash flow. Gearing, a measure of the company's indebtedness, increased to 6.2% from 4.8% at the end of March, highlighting the financial strain of sustaining a payout critical to Saudi government finances.

Separately, Aramco's President and CEO, Amin H. Nasser, told Al Arabiya Business that the closure of the Hormuz chokepoint sparked the "largest oil shock in history," resulting in the global market losing more than 2.6 billion barrels of supply since the start of the Gulf crisis in late February.

Aramco’s President and CEO Amin H. Nasser tells Al Arabiya Business that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused the “largest oil supply shock in history,” resulting in the global market losing more than 2.6 billion barrels of supply since the start of the crisis. pic.twitter.com/DbzlcglOYT

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) August 4, 2026

Nasser said the closure of the Hormuz removes about 100 million barrels of oil from the market every week and has placed the global refining system under severe strain.

From the earnings call: 

Goldman Sachs' top commodities experts, Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven, have both warned about the refinery shock and pointed out that "diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze."

Read the report:

• "Diesel Is At Epicenter Of Supply Squeeze,": Goldman
• "Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night

Even after the chokepoint reopens, Nasser warned that it could take up to 18 months to replenish global inventories.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:20

Global Bond Market On Edge As Japanese Yields Soar After "Horrible" 10Y JGB Auction

While much of the market focus has fallen on the US long-end, which saw substantial pressure in the past week, sending 30Y yields to 5.27%, the highest level since 2007, it was Japan again which stole the show overnight. But first, recall that the primary tradeoff for the BOJ preventing it from raising rates and comfortably pushing up the yen without needing to spending tens of billions in massive interventions (whether individual or joint with the US), is that raising rates risks collapsing the world's biggest house of cards, which is the Japanese bond market, the world's, second biggest of which half is now owned by the Bank of Japan. 

Well, early on Tuesday morning Japan had its first major coupon auction since the latest intervention and it went... catastrophically. 

The auction, which saw a huge tail, the second highest since the start of the century...

... and dismal demand in the form of a collapsing 2.56 bid to cover, far below the 3.3 average, the lowest since May 2025...

... and the third lowest going back all the way to 2015.

... sent the yield on 10Y paper as spiking as much as 5bps higher to 2.87% with JGB futures tumbling as much as 34 ticks to 126.37. 

The lowest price was also a long way off from pre-sale estimates. In a nutshell, as Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield put it, it was a "horrible auction" and ominously adds that "this is such a bad bond sale it could spill over negatively to Treasuries and other G-10 bonds." The Bloomberg strategist also notges that "investors appear to be giving the BOJ pay back for not be clearer in their intentions to get ahead of inflationary forces and raise interest rates more quickly."

The auction was so bad, even domestic Japanese investors seem to have been surprised at the poor metrics.  As a result, 10-year yields fast approached the peak seen in July around 2.90%, with Cranfield warning that "should Japanese bonds go beyond that threshold seen last month, it is likely to send a deeply negative read across to G-10 peers, which will reverberate through global fixed-income trading."

Elsewhere, Bloomberg strategist Ven Ram points out the obvious noting that "the lukewarm reception to Japan’s latest bond auction shows that the latest round of currency intervention has failed to turn around sentiment toward the nation’s assets.... While the Japan-US joint currency intervention shored up the yen, the follow-through needs to come not from the US Treasury or Japan’s finance ministry, but rather from the Bank of Japan."

The bottom line: unless the BOJ follows through on the intervention either by raising rates outside its normal policy review cycle or by signaling an urgent intent to follow through with successive hikes, bonds will continue to falter. That, in turn, bodes poorly for the yen’s outlook — regardless of what the authorities do in the short term.

Sure enough, after dropping as low as 155.20 yesterday, the USDJPY is now almost 300 pips higher and has already erased a third of the full intervention impact which cost Japan just shy of $100 billion.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:10

"Creepy" Smart Glasses Are Creating A Privacy Problem

Smart glasses are quickly becoming the next major consumer tech battleground, with Meta leading the market and rivals including Google, Samsung, and Apple preparing their own AI-powered eyewear. But as the devices become more capable, they're also fueling a growing debate over whether convenience is coming at the expense of privacy, according to a new report from Wired. 

Unlike smartphones, which require users to visibly point a camera, smart glasses can quietly capture photos, video, and audio from the wearer's point of view. Critics argue that makes them far easier to misuse. Meta has attempted to address concerns with recording lights and anti-tamper protections, but questions remain over how effective those safeguards really are. The company also briefly experimented with facial-recognition capabilities before abandoning the feature after it drew scrutiny.

Even so, consumers continue to buy them. Fans point to hands-free photography, AI assistants, live translation, accessibility features, and other practical uses that make the glasses more than just another gadget. Some smaller manufacturers are trying to distinguish themselves with camera-free designs or physical lens covers aimed at privacy-conscious buyers.

Wired writes that privacy groups say the technology may ultimately require regulation rather than voluntary safeguards, calling for mandatory recording indicators that users cannot disable. Their argument is that as AI wearables become commonplace, legal protections need to evolve just as quickly.

Then again, if people are already posting every meal, workout, vacation, and awkward first date online, maybe the only thing smart glasses are really doing is saving everyone the trouble of pulling a phone out of their pocket.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 06:55

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads:

• The Worries That Drove Uncle Sam to Buy Yen: The U.S. and Japan launched their first joint currency intervention in a generation after the yen fell to a 40-year low — a decline that threatened to push U.S. interest rates higher. The weakness of the Japanese currency was a problem not just for Tokyo but also Washington. (Wall Street Journal)

• AI Has Entered The ‘Loss Of Control’ Transition: Waiting for a disaster to save us. What the experts didn’t expect to see for decades or longer, if ever, has already happened. Earlier this month, OpenAI’s latest frontier model went rogue by its own reasoning and hacked into Hugging Face, an open-source AI model-hosting platform. The vast sums of money and compute power pouring into AI are accelerating its advance at a pace beyond even the ambitious imagination of its own innovators. Nathan Gardels on OpenAI’s latest frontier model going rogue by its own reasoning and hacking into Hugging Face — something experts didn’t expect for decades, if ever. (Noema) see also Is AI Reasoning Right for the Wrong Reasons? The idea that artificial intelligence can “reason” is more intuitive than ever. But intuitions can be wrong, and the science is far from settled. John Pavlus on large reasoning models, now that a general-purpose reasoning model from OpenAI has solved a famous open mathematical research problem. (Quanta Magazine)

• Silicon Valley loves young founders. Until it doesn’t. While Silicon Valley VCs have always famously loved backing young college dropout founders, they preferred to see them paired with technical founders, or at least to have some experience — ideally with a FAANG company (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google) — on their résumés. In many ways, that is still very true. But AI tools have democratized the opportunity to build, shortening the timelines of success and enabling more young people to start successful companies without stepping foot inside a Big Tech company. Dominic-Madori Davis profiles Arlan Rakhmetzhanov, 19, who started coding at 15 in Kazakhstan and cold-DM’ed every Y Combinator founder he could find until one wrote him an angel check at 17. (TechCrunch)

• Data centers have a politics problem — and industry knows it: As opposition to the AI projects gains momentum, industry supporters say they have ceded the narrative to their critics. Fears that server-packed data hubs will drive up electricity prices, deplete water supplies and gobble farmland have put the companies that build them on the losing end of a populist backlash. (Politico)

• You Won the Battle on Investment Fees. You’re Losing the War Against Taxes. You can own the entire stock market for 0.03% a year — $3 on $10,000 — a number that would have sounded absurd 20 years ago. New research finds federal taxes eat more than a third of investor wealth over time. New research shows that federal taxes eat up more than a third of investors’ wealth over time (Wall Street Journal)

• The last day of a factory in Trump country, as its work moves to China: For generations, this Ohio factory was a way of life. Then came the final shift. Peter Jamison in Eastlake, Ohio, where Joe Klima spent 40 years — six days a week, through seven presidents and four recessions — making some of the world’s finest tubas, French horns and sousaphones. (Washington Post)

• How to Use AI to Talk to Whales—and Save Life on Earth: With ecosystems in crisis, engineers and scientists are teaming up to decipher what animals are saying. Their hope: By truly listening to nature, humans will decide to protect it. Camille Bromley on the engineers and scientists teaming up to decipher what animals are saying, betting that truly listening to nature will persuade humans to protect it. (Wired)

• What Ukraine’s drone makers know that the Pentagon doesn’t: Modern war rewards speed and redundancy, not perfect weapons from a single supplier. Denys Shtilerman, founder of Ukrainian defense company FirePoint, on Freyja — the ten-country European interceptor coalition — and why depending on a single manufacturer in a single country is the real vulnerability. (Washington Post)

• RFK Jr tells US families to vaccinate children against measles amid outbreak: Health secretary, longtime vaccination skeptic, spent years boosting misinformation about vaccines including MMR. Ed Pilkington on the health secretary — a longtime vaccine skeptic — urging MMR shots as infections hit levels not seen in 35 years. (The Guardian) but see The Assault On Science Funding Continues: The Trump administration hates academic science funding, full stop. They hate where that money goes, and they hate who it goes to. They want to keep all that money for themselves, to hand out to favored cronies who can help them get elected and to steer yet more money and more power back into their hands. (Science)

• Inside the week that shook Gianni Infantino, FIFA and the football world: The World Cup may have been mired in the scandals of rejected visas, Trump interference and numerous statewide investigations into FIFA’s ticketing practices, but it yielded $15billion (£11bn) in revenues, which had a muzzling effect on those who were uneasy with Infantino’s leadership. He was so confident in his position that he ended the tournament without the customary closing press conference. Then, last Sunday, he went onto Instagram and lashed out against scrutiny and criticism of his leadership, accusing critics of “spreading hate” and telling them to “meditate, pray or watch a football match” instead of spending their energy worrying about FIFA. The FIFA president planned to unveil a stake sale to private investors — including Joshua Kushner, brother of Jared — at the Waldorf Astoria on the eve of the World Cup final. It did not go as planned. (New York Times)

Video of the day: Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing | Official Trailer | Netflix

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Som Seif, founder/CEO of Purpose Unlimited, a Toronto-based asset manager launched in 2012. He grew his first firm, Claymore Investments to $8B in assets by creating 34  ETFs in Canada over 6 years, including the creation of the first bitcoin ETF, establishing it as Canada’s leader in low-cost exchange-traded funds. Claymore was sold to BlackRock in 2012. He co-founded Wealthsimple that year, which became the default investing app for a generation of Canadians. His current wealth management firm, Purpose, was founded at the end of 2012, and manages $31 billion in ETFs, mutual funds, alternatives, private assets, and digital assets. Som was named to Canada’s Top 40 Under 40 in 2011.

 

America’s biggest companies report ‘rock solid’ profits as consumers face higher costs

Source: Financial Times

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

UK Police Force Invites Non-Muslim Staff To Fast During Ramadan As Act Of Solidarity

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

West Midlands Police force is actively inviting non-Muslim officers and staff to go without food and water during Ramadan as a deliberate "act of solidarity" with Muslim colleagues.

The force presents this as a way for officers to grasp the "significance of Ramadan" for Muslim residents in one of Britain's most diverse regions. Critics see it as yet another example of public institutions bending their culture around one faith while the foundational principle of policing without fear or favour collapses under diversity dogma.

The invitation comes from the West Midlands Association of Muslim Police. Colleagues of all backgrounds are encouraged to fast for a day during the month-long festival, with the money they would normally spend on lunch donated to charity.

'I look forward to Christmas when all the Muslim officers have a tree in their house and join in.'@CressidaWetton reacts as West Midlands Police officers are invited to fast during Ramadan as an act of solidarity and to raise money for charity. pic.twitter.com/rmGxRxTKk8

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 2, 2026

A force spokesman confirmed the practice has run for a number of years: "The West Midlands Association of Muslim Police has, for a number of years, invited colleagues from all faiths and backgrounds to fast for a day to raise money for charity during Ramadan. It is entirely a matter for officers and staff if they wish to take part."

"This is an initiative which is undertaken at a number of organisations around the country. The West Midlands has a large and diverse population, including many Muslim residents, and it is important for officers and staff to understand the significance of Ramadan to those communities," the spokesman added.

Documents obtained by the Telegraph through freedom of information requests show the force is held up as a model of inclusivity. A New Forest council diversity training memo praises West Midlands Police for supporting fasting colleagues with flexi-working so they can spend time with families.

It notes: "What's more, increasing numbers of non-Muslim staff have taken up fasting each year as an act of solidarity with their Muslim colleagues, adding to the family feel of WMP culture." Councillors were urged to brainstorm their own versions of such inclusivity.

Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy did not share the enthusiasm. He called the encouragement of non-Muslim staff to observe Ramadan "wholly inappropriate."

"The police should be a national force for all of us, observing the same standards regardless of creed," Timothy said, adding "There should be no special measures in place for any faith."

"We should not be changing police culture to comply with the practices of one religion," he continued, adding "Expectations should be uniform, and non-Muslim police being encouraged to fast in Ramadan is wholly inappropriate. We need to abolish the Public Sector Equality Duty, which provides the legal framework for much of this, and ensure there is one rule for all of us - not special treatment for certain groups."

Major Andrew Fox, senior associate fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, went further. He linked the initiative to the force's recent controversies, including the exclusion of Israeli football supporters based on intelligence later shown to be false or exaggerated.

"West Midlands Police's judgment is increasingly open to question," Fox stated, adding "Supporting officers of every faith is entirely appropriate. Encouraging staff to participate in a religious observance is not. The police exist to enforce the law impartially, not to promote or facilitate religious practices."

Concerns have also been raised about operational readiness. Front-line officers abstaining from food and water for extended periods during demanding shifts raises obvious questions about concentration, physical performance and public safety. Yet the force frames the voluntary fast as cultural enrichment rather than a potential operational risk.

This episode does not stand alone. It fits a pattern of ideological capture that a Policy Exchange analysis has shown is systematically undermining British policing. Forces across England and Wales have poured hundreds of millions into DEI measures and the Police Race Action Plan since 2020.

The think-tank's head of crime and justice, David Spencer, warned that police chiefs have "sought to entrench the radical ideology of 'anti-racism' into British policing." In doing so, he argued, "some police chiefs have set policing against its own foundational principle - to act 'without fear or favour'."

Spencer concluded: "It is a modern-day tragedy that many of our Chief Constables simply cannot be trusted to resolve this alone. It's time to restore the principle of 'equality before the law' in policing. Nothing less than the fundamental legitimacy of British policing is at stake."

The human cost of this ideology has already been measured in real lives. In Southampton in December 2025, 18-year-old university student Henry Nowak was stabbed multiple times. His attacker, Vickrum Digwa, claimed he was the victim of a racist assault.

Bodycam footage shows officers treating the bleeding Nowak as the aggressor, handcuffing him while he pleaded that he could not breathe. He lost consciousness shortly after and died. An inquest has been ordered to examine whether the handcuffing and delays in medical treatment contributed to his death under Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights.

Serving and former Hampshire officers later told former Home Secretary Suella Braverman that mandatory DEI sessions had "drummed into us about our white privilege and unconscious bias."

The external trainer was described as "deeply hateful of white people and our culture." Officers reported feeling controlled and pressured to adopt specific views on race. Hampshire's chief constable denied the existence of two-tier policing, but the bodycam evidence and the subsequent admissions tell a different story.

Similar patterns appear elsewhere. Footage from Birmingham earlier this year captured officers intervening in a street attack by shielding three black males who had been punching a white teenager, then arresting and manhandling the bloodied victim while the attackers walked free.

Officers were heard ordering the restrained teenager into a police car with language that left little doubt about the direction of their aggression. West Midlands Police, the same force asked to participate in fasting, asked the public to stop sharing the clips rather than account for the conduct.

The same ideological framework has been institutionalised through training that forces officers to accept the concept of "white privilege." Thames Valley Police has mandated equity sessions focusing on white privilege, micro-aggressions and the shift from non-racist to anti-racist practice.

An independent review found the material could be seen as demonising white officers, creating barriers to learning and generating resentment among white male officers who felt disadvantaged.

Former government adviser and ex-police officer Rory Geoghegan observed that officers "deserve far better from their leaders than to be crudely categorised by skin colour and subjected to reductive, divisive ideologies."

When non-Muslim officers are invited to participate in Islamic religious observance under the banner of solidarity, while the same institutions have spent years instructing white officers on their supposed privilege and have been caught prioritising racial narratives over the immediate medical needs of a dying white teenager, the pattern is clear.

The Public Sector Equality Duty and the DEI apparatus that flows from it have produced a policing culture more interested in managed optics and protected group sensitivities than in equal application of the law.

Nick Timothy's call to abolish that duty is not abstract. It is a recognition that one rule for all has been replaced by a hierarchy of protected identities. West Midlands Police's Ramadan invitation is simply the latest public expression of that hierarchy.

British policing was built on the principle that the uniform represents the same standards for every citizen. That principle is being hollowed out, one diversity initiative at a time. The public is noticing. Trust is eroding. And the consequences are no longer theoretical.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 05:00

Iron Ore Below $100 As UBS Warns "Fundamentals Are Deteriorating"

Iron ore futures in Singapore fell to their lowest intraday level in one year as deteriorating fundamentals continued to weigh on the market.

Steel demand in China remains soft amid an ongoing construction slump and weakening mill margins, while supply continues to increase, reinforcing expectations of a growing surplus.

Bloomberg noted earlier that the latest concerns surrounding major physical trader Radiant World added another layer of uncertainty, but the bigger bearish narrative remains centered on lackluster demand failing to absorb rising supply.

The outlet adds more color:

Vitol Group and Cargill Inc. have stopped doing business with Radiant World, a privately held company, amid concerns over fake invoices, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.

In addition, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s Point Bonita fund were reviewing exposures to the company.

Radiant World — which has grown in recent years to become one of the market's main players — said the developments are "categorically untrue".

Separately, Myles Allsop, a London-based mining and metals research analyst at UBS, recently pointed out, "Iron ore fundamentals remain cautious; prices are starting to test the low end of the range."

Allsop questioned whether iron ore will trade above $100/t in 2027. He answered, "Probably not," and added:

Iron ore fundamentals are deteriorating with supply lifting while demand is soft; this has resulted in inventories lifting materially over the last 12 months.

We note cost support levels have lifted with higher diesel/ freight rates but these are set to moderate over the next 12 months if the ceasefire holds & oil/ gas prices normalise.

We expect iron ore prices to average ~$100/t in 2026 and moderate to ~US$95/t in 2027 with the market in a larger surplus and prices stepping down to trade just above the ~90th percentile of the value-in-use curve or ~$90/t (note).

We expect steel scrap to start to displace iron ore demand from 2027 when China's ETS gets tighter (although the scale and pace is opaque and dependent on highly fragmented collection and processing, as well as policy support).

Overnight, Iron ore futures extended their selloff, with benchmark Singapore contracts falling as much as 2.3% to $93.65 a ton, the lowest intraday level since July 2025, while the most-active Dalian contract dropped nearly 3%.

The price action suggests bearish sentiment toward the steelmaking raw material, as weakening Chinese demand, softer steel margins, and increasing supply are pressuring the market.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 04:15

The EU & The Iron Law Of Oligarchy

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

Along, long time ago—27 years, to be exact—my boss (the inimitable Mark Melcher) and I predicted that the European Monetary Union would be the death of the EU. The Euro, we wrote for our clients at a now-defunct big brokerage house, would be a disaster and would destroy everything that the post-war Europeans had spent the previous several decades working to build. Specifically, we wrote:

Psst! You wanna know a secret? The Euro, and the mess it represents, is going to be a social, economic and political catastrophe. Indeed, we think it is probable that the adoption of the Euro will be to 21st century Europe, what the killing of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand was to 20th century Europe; i.e., that point in time when history will record that the unraveling began in earnest.

Exaggeration? Hyperbole? Well, maybe. But maybe not. You see, the problem isn’t, as most critics claim, simply that the “policy makers” from the various “regions,” will fight over economic and monetary policy, and that the economic ignoramuses might win. The problem is that economic ignoramuses are likely to be the only ones at the table.  . . .

Starting in about 2010 and running for the next decade or so, every January, in my annual foreign-policy forecast piece, I would lead with a reiteration of that prediction. The collapse of the Euro, I would write, was inevitable. It didn’t matter if it actually happened this year or next year or a decade down the road. It would all eventually crumble, largely because the ignoramuses simply couldn’t help themselves and couldn’t stop doing economically foolish things.

Sometime over the last few years, I quit making that prediction every year for a couple of reasons. First, I quit writing annual forecast pieces as my business model and focus changed. Second, and more to the point, it became unnecessary. The EU had already made itself economically irrelevant. Between its jealously fueled outrage at American tech companies, its obsession with carbon emissions, and its conscious decision to strangle its capital markets through the imposition of overtly political investing mandates, the EU guaranteed that it would become the first modern civilization in history to regress developmentally. It knowingly chose to deindustrialize and to build an economic future that was far bleaker than even its remote economic past. The Euro, I concluded, was pointless.

That’s not to say that I gave up believing that the EU would inevitably collapse. I just gave up wasting my readers’ time by prattling on about it.

Looking back at all of this now, it’s possible I may have been mistaken. No, I wasn’t wrong about the economic stuff. Not only are the ignoramuses in charge, but no one else is even in the discussion. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is the only Eurozone leader who questions the Union’s climate policies, for example, rightly warning that they will lead to “industrial desertification.” Still, even she officially supports the EU’s position on climate change and carbon emissions more generally, as well as its agreement to the Paris Climate Accords. It’s ignoramuses all the way down.

Nevertheless, it’s probably the case that I was wrong that the economic ignoramuses would be the ones who would precipitate the official end of the EU. Or, more accurately, I suppose, I was wrong that their economically illiterate policies would be the proximate cause of the EU’s collapse. It’s the same ignoramuses, just different policies.

As you likely know, this past week, tens of thousands of “migrants” from Morocco invaded the Spanish city of Ceuta, which is along the coast in North Africa. The images from the enclave were grim: hordes of people, mostly young men, pushing, racing, and fighting to get out of Africa and into Europe (geographical technicalities, be damned). The conditions on the ground were grimmer still: as of yesterday, some 70-plus deaths had been confirmed, while more than a thousand people required medical attention. The whole thing was shocking—or at least it would have been if it hadn’t also been utterly predictable.

For most of the last forty years, Spain has been a hub of primarily North African and Middle Eastern immigration to Europe.

Since the 1980s, Spain has had six major extraordinary regularizations for its migrant populations. Although different in name and details, these “extraordinary regularizations” are essentially broad general amnesties, grants of legal immigration status to those who entered the country illegally. In 2005, under the former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (a socialist), Spain granted amnesty to more than half a million illegal immigrants. Earlier this year, under current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (also a socialist . . . or worse), the country began the process of yet another regularization, the total size of which is unknown at present but is estimated to be between 500,000 and over 800,000.

Additionally, earlier this summer, the Spanish Supreme Court issued a ruling limiting the ability of the government to return immigrants who arrived in Ceuta and its sister city, Melilla, by sea rather than by land (over a technical “border”).

All things considered, Spain has done everything in its power to encourage as much immigration as possible, and its government has openly conceded this fact, arguing that demographic and workforce realities make mass immigration an absolute necessity. Unsurprisingly, given all of this, the country’s foreign-born population jumped significantly in less than two years, from approximately 18.2% of the total population in 2024 to 20.3% today.

In light of Spain’s immigration policies and in the wake of the Ceuta disaster, over the weekend, several EU nations called for a suspension of Spain’s privileges under the Schengen Agreement, which allows borderless travel within the Schengen region: no passport control, a unified set of regulations, etc. Predictably, Meloni’s Italy was the first to speak up. Deputy PMs Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini announced a formal one-month suspension of Italy’s Schengen relations with Spain, closing Italy’s maritime and air entry points to Spain and introducing “targeted and selective” checks on non-EU travelers arriving from that country. France followed suit, reintroducing checks at its land border crossings with Spain. Finland began preparing to reimpose border controls along its own Schengen borders, and its interior minister, Mari Rantanen, offered the sharpest public statement by a government official to date: “Spain’s outer border is also our outer border, and. . . they have failed in their efforts to prevent this incursion, this invasion.” Denmark and Czechia both demanded Spain’s suspension from Schengen, but neither has taken unilateral action on its own.

In response, Pedro Sánchez complained that everyone, everywhere, was overreacting, stating that the rest of Europe was being “selfish, polarising, and unlawful.”

Taken as a whole, this entire episode—starting with Spain’s admitted desire to import as many immigrants as possible and continuing through this weekend’s demands for Spain’s suspension from Schengen—helps clarify some of the broader issues facing the EU.

First, in the age of mass immigration, Schengen shows clearly that the EU itself was a half-baked idea. Interestingly, Schengen did not start as an EU enterprise. It started as a side agreement between a handful of member states: Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. It was only in 1999, via the Amsterdam Treaty’s Schengen Protocol, that the “Schengen acquis” (the whole body of Schengen rules and agreements) was formally absorbed into EU law. In 2004, the EU—as opposed to its member states, a key distinction—tried to push a European constitution on its members, including provisions formally mandating Schengen compliance, making the EU “an area without internal frontiers, in which the free movement of persons is ensured. . . .”  The following year, French and Dutch voters explicitly rejected the constitution via referenda, which should, by all rights, have been the end of it. The EU being the EU, it decided that it wouldn’t take no for an answer and scaled the constitution back marginally and re-presented it as the Lisbon Treaty, which, among many foolish things, formalized and mandated participation in the Schengen migration policies.

Second, the Euro, the immigration mess, and the EU’s unwillingness to accept the will of the people as definitive confirm Robert Michels’ Iron Law of Oligarchy and show that the EU’s pretensions to “democracy” are rather laughable. Michels was a student of Max Weber, the founder of modern sociology, who sought to deepen his appreciation of socialism by studying the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), the most avowedly democratic, mass-participatory political organization in Europe at the time. He presumed that he would find a functional, egalitarian organization that confirmed all his fantastical priors. Instead, what he discovered was the opposite. He concluded, based on his study, that even organizations explicitly founded on democratic principles—universal participation, elected leadership, accountability to the membership—invariably develop into oligarchies, ruled by a small, self-perpetuating leadership class. It is simply the nature of large organizations. This, then, is Michels’ Iron Law of Oligarchy: “It is organisation that gives birth to the domination of the elected over the electors, of the mandataries over the mandators, of the delegates over the delegators. Who says organisation, says oligarchy.”

The EU is an oligarchy in Michelsian terms. It is governed by a small self-perpetuating ruling class that sees “the people” as impediments to its technocratic program and will do whatever is necessary to advance its agenda, regardless of the will of those people.

Finally, the EU will crumble. All Utopian enterprises eventually do. They must. They can’t help but do so. And while it may not be the monetary union that brings it down, something will. Maybe it will be Schengen and immigration. Maybe it will be something else. Who knows? Whatever the case, it will, eventually, collapse. The real, painful part of Michels’ Iron Law is the inability of oligarchies to reform themselves. They are incapable. What this suggests is that the EU’s response to the Ceuta incident and to Spain’s immigration unilateralism more generally will be to add more layers of centralizing regulation to the already oligarchical system, thereby making a bad problem even worse.

The EU won’t reform because it can’t reform. And so, it will collapse instead.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 03:30

12 Glaring Realities Of Marxist Socialism

Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

In a free society that embraces free markets and the rule of law, young people must be made aware of the glaring realities regarding the alleged “fuzzy and warm” nature of Marxist (collectivism, communism, progressivism, socialism) iterations. 

There are at least twelve aspects of the Marxist ideology that are clear and present dangers to democratic nations as well as undemocratic countries.

First, Marxism was founded on the stark concept of atheism.  Consequently, it attempts to dismantle the Judeo-Christian faith that has been an anchor of civilization for thousands of years and helps people to navigate life’s challenges.  Marxists also oppose the traditional family, which is the building block of any culture and bolsters societal bonds.  On every life category, intact families are far more successful than broken families.

Next, Marxist policies encourage folks to be intellectually and physically lazy as they rely on bureaucratic government for all of their needs.  This reliance generates an unearned entitlement mentality that expects others to supply the needs of those who refuse to accept personal responsibility.  Minimal effort is applied to studying and working, yet the “entitled” expect to earn high salaries regardless of the effort they put forth.

Third, Marxists are quite generous with the money confiscated from job creators, but they are stingy with their own money.  However, most of the money and possessions that are seized by Marxist leaders end up with their cronies and are not redistributed to the lower-income workers they claim to be helping.  The hypocrisy is staggering.

Fourth, Marxist influencers compete with one another to see who the best liar is as they deceive the vulnerable who might believe promises that are too good to be true.  Marxists use deception as a means to control the masses and keep them on their heels.  They talk a good game about socialism as a paradise on earth yet do everything they can to turn that alleged nirvana into a hell on earth.

Fifth, Marxism is an arbitrary system built on a foundation of contradictions.  It can hand out some goodies but just as easily withdraw them.  Marxists believe that they can alter laws whenever they feel the urge, thus using raw power plays to confuse and divide people, and consolidate power in the hands of a few.  Arbitrary laws can hinder people from advancing economically and can also create insecurity.

Sixth, for an ideology that claims it will usher in equality, Marxism certainly is fixated on economic class, color, gender, and race.  Apparently, some are more equal than others.  Instead of equal opportunity, Marxists favor the equity of prearranged outcomes.  Many Marxist spokespersons are often educated academics who pretend victimhood and fear competition in the real world yet believe they are smarter than everyone else.   They’ve learned nothing about good citizenship and wisdom, while displaying a common sense deficit.  Marxists envy folks who keep their noses to the grindstone, and lash out at those who possess discipline, deferred gratification, and a healthy work ethic.

Seventh, Marxists promise freedom and security to those who will join their cause, yet wealth is stolen from others, and security only exists for those at the top of the pyramid.  In other words, everyone is equally miserable under Marxism except for the jackbooted leaders who profit from the spoils acquired from their “legalized” theft.  For proof, just examine the misery index of folks in China PRC, Cuba, Iran, N. Korea, and Russia.

Eighth, it’s puzzling why Marxists who reside in free societies lack the courage to move to the autocratic societies they admire.  Is it because they don’t even believe the mantras they keep repeating, or do they want to have their cake and eat it, too?  They denounce the blessings of free enterprise and liberty at the same time as they partake of them.  Unfortunately, they have taken their blessings for granted.  Do they really want to transform America into a dysfunctional nation that has constant shortages of goods and services?

Ninth, Marxism promotes the darker facets of human nature rather than its nobler strivings.  Marxists turn lies into the truth and truth into lies.  They oppose the arts, constructive creativity, and innovation and constantly push monolithic groupthink instead of critical thinking.  In other words, Marxism is extremely boring and lacks a sense of humor.

Tenth, Marxists never learn from history and thus are doomed to repeat it, even after the carnage that’s been generated by their dystopian policies for over a century.  Someone once noted that doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.  That’s the Marxist playbook in a nutshell.

Eleventh, Marxists glorify the vices and demonize traditional virtues even while they carry out plenty of virtue signaling.  They condescendingly lecture us about upholding democracy and liberty at the same time as they attempt to erode economic freedom, educational freedom, and individual freedom.

Finally, Marxism is highly immature.  Marxists rarely learn from the past and thus triple down on failure.  They blame others for their own fascist behavior, which is an example of denial and projection.  They demand to get what other folks have earned, which is childish and immoral.  Marxists side with totalitarian entities and mob rule, while opposing the sole Middle East democracy, Israel.  Most Marxists only embrace law enforcement when it is provided to protect unlawful immigrants and themselves, and when it is used to punish law-abiding folks. 

This is why it is imperative to vigorously oppose Marxism by all means necessary.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 23:25

"We Use Thicker Steel": Security Firm Fortifies HVAC Units Against Thieves

Copper wiring, light poles, catalytic converters, copper gutters, and even Tesla charging cables have long been targets for thieves.

But in crime-ridden metro areas governed by progressive or reformist socialist city halls that have adopted softer enforcement policies, where lefty prosecutors are perceived as unwilling to pursue property crimes, criminals have become increasingly emboldened.

They have moved beyond stealing industrial metals to taking entire outdoor HVAC units, prompting some homeowners and businesses to install heavy steel security cages around their condensers.

An Atlanta-based company called Ornamental Security published a viral Instagram video titled "Securing Your HVAC System," highlighting what appears to be a growing trend among homeowners: installing metal cages over outdoor condensers to prevent theft.

Ornamental Security's Instagram video was later reposted on X by Everything Georgia, where it went even more viral, drawing 2.6 million views in just one day.

HVAC thefts are geographically widespread, occurring in cities governed by both Democrats (Chicago, Louisville, District Heights/Prince George's County, Maryland) and Republicans (Jacksonville, FL; Midland, TX), as well as in Canada.

Recent reports:

In Maryland, WBFF 45 reported earlier this year:

Based:

We pay taxes to stop crime....Democrats use our tax dollars to support crime.

That is the problem.

— Raging Greek (@RagingGreek2) August 2, 2026

Just wait until tech companies start installing mini data centers in residential backyards. Thieves will move up the value chain, from stealing HVAC units to targeting Nvidia chips.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 23:00

Arming Local Police With Drones. Who Pulls The Trigger?

Authored by Burak Oktenli via RealClearDefense,

Last Sunday, the World Cup was played in New Jersey, capping a summer in which American stadiums have hosted the largest sporting event on earth. Federal planners saw the airspace problem coming: the executive order that reorganized America's counter-drone posture names the 2026 World Cup explicitly as an event to protect. What the planning has not yet produced is an answer to the question that will matter most if a drone crosses the stadium fence: whose call is it?

The legal landscape has transformed in thirteen months. Executive Order 14305, signed in June 2025, pushed detection funding to state and local agencies. Then the Safer Skies Act, passed in December's defense authorization, broke a decades-old federal monopoly: for the first time, trained and certified local police and correctional officers may seize, disable, or destroy a drone that poses a credible threat to people, large events, critical infrastructure, or prisons. Implementing rules from Homeland Security, the Justice Department, and the FCC began arriving this month. Industry has done its part too; the interceptors, jammers, and radio-frequency takeover tools exist and are getting better.

Here is what does not yet exist: the authority layer. We have spent our energy deciding who may act and buying the tools to act with, while leaving the harder questions of how the decision gets made to be improvised at the venue gate. Start with the declaration problem. The statute authorizes force against a drone that poses a "credible threat," but a credible threat is a judgment call, and at a packed stadium it is a judgment call made in under a minute by whoever happens to hold the certification. Is the quadcopter over the parking lot a hostile payload, a hobbyist who ignored the flight restriction, or a broadcaster's camera platform that lost its transponder? Three different answers, three different lawful responses, one clock.

Then the handoff problem. A drone approaching a stadium can cross private property, city jurisdiction, county lines, and a federal security perimeter in ninety seconds. Venue security teams have no mitigation authority at all; certified local police have some; federal teams have more. The law creates layers of permission without specifying the moment or mechanism of transfer between them. Weeks of confused drone sightings over New Jersey in late 2024 already demonstrated how fast the question "who is in charge of this airspace" can go publicly unanswered. That was surveillance and speculation. Engagement is less forgiving.

And the evidence problem. Every engagement decision will be litigated, because the law has teeth on both edges: an officer who mitigates without required federal coordination faces civil penalties up to 100,000 dollars per violation, and a wrongful takedown over a crowd invites liability no city attorney wants to discover in real time. If the radio-frequency logs, radar tracks, and decision records of an engagement are not captured to an evidentiary standard, the program will lose in court what it won in Congress. None of this requires new technology. It requires an authority architecture agreed before the whistle, in three parts. Every protected event needs a named decision authority: one accountable official, designated in advance, who owns the hostile-or-not call, with a pre-planned line of succession. Jurisdictions need risk-based engagement windows: decisions, made in daylight and written down, about which responses are authorized at which distances and against which behaviors, so that the officer under the flight path executes a plan rather than invents one. And every engagement needs an evidence chain built in from the first sensor contact, so that what happened can be audited, prosecuted, and defended.

The rules now being written are the moment to set this architecture, and federal guidance is already urging venues and agencies to define roles, responsibilities, and response plans rather than improvising them on the night. The calendar is unkind: after this Sunday comes a Ryder Cup, a Super Bowl, and the 2028 Olympics, each a mass gathering under an expanding drone threat. Retrofitting authority onto deployed hardware after the first bad night is how programs die.

The question at the stadium gate is no longer whether America can stop a drone. We can. The question is whether the officer looking up at one knows, before it arrives, whose decision it is, what response is authorized, and what record will protect that decision afterward. Congress opened the door to local counter-drone defense. Someone still must build the doorway.

Burak Oktenli is an independent researcher on the governance of authority in autonomous and AI-mediated systems and holds an MBA and a Master of Professional Studies in Applied Intelligence from Georgetown University. His writing has appeared at the Modern War Institute at West Point, RUSI, RealClearDefense, and The Space Review.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 22:35

The Real Reasons Why Funding For The Democrat Party Is Collapsing

Recent polling suggests that expectations of a "blue wave" in Congress for the 2026 mid-terms are crumbling fast, and as we examined recently, the Democrats are facing one of the biggest financial shortfalls in DNC history.  The organization has around $16 million of cash on hand for campaign operations after debts are counted.  The Republicans have over $129 million cash on hand with zero debt. 

In terms of super-PAC money, the Democrats have $334 million to draw from while Republicans have $1.06 billion.

The funding disparity could not be more obvious, but what is the cause?  What happened to the Democrat's massive cash apparatus - the same system that raised over $1 billion for the Kamala Harris campaign in 2024?  It's almost as if the money simply disappeared.

Some theories suggest that institutions like USAID were funneling cash into the DNC through various political NGOs and subsidies.  There is some validity to these claims.

Groups tied to NGO networks like the former Arabella Advisors (which managed large 501(c) funds handling over a billion dollars for advocacy, ballot measures, and political activity) saw scrutiny and restructuring after Donald Trump took office. These management groups contracted support for Democratic-aligned causes, messaging, voter mobilization, and infrastructure.  

One of the biggest supporters of Arabella Advisors was the Bill Gates Foundation, which cut ties with Arabella last year.  Arabella ceased operations in November of 2025 due to investigations into "Dark Money" funding. Interestingly, Democrat coffers have suffered significant declines after Arabella dissolved and rebranded as "Sunflower Services".  The organization also had numerous overlapping ties to USAID.

It should also be noted that employee contributions from USAID, the Department of Education and other organizations targeted by DOGE cuts were around 95% Democrat.  Huge swaths of the federal bureaucracy have long been run by the far-left.  Presidents come and go, but the bureaucracy is forever.

Beyond the dark money angle, much of the DNC's losses can be attributed to their own ideologically unhinged leadership.  Kamala Harris, for example, had nearly double the number of billionaire donors and corporate sponsors compared to Donald Trump, yet Trump won the election in a landslide and the Harris camp ended up with $22 million in debt.

Major donors including Bob Kerrigan and Reid Hoffman have pulled back from the DNC after the 2024 disaster, citing lack of faith in leadership and questions over the purpose of the Democratic Party.  

Finally, with the rise of fanatical Democrat Socialist candidates in blue city elections across the US, the Democrat Party is being treated as radioactive.  The more the party doubles down on woke, the less people like or trust them (Get Woke, Go Broke). 

It's unclear how well Democrats will perform in the mid-term elections this year given their financial problems, but it is often true that any party that can't get people to vote with their wallets is going to have a hard time getting people to show up at the polls.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 22:10

Israeli Finance Minister Requests Netanyahu Approve Three Jewish Settlements In Gaza 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Sunday repeated his call for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to approve the establishment of three Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, as senior Israeli ministers continue to speak openly about their plans for permanent Israeli control of the Palestinian territory.

Smotrich made the call in a post on X, in which he referenced the withdrawal of settlements from Gaza and from an area of the northern West Bank, which he calls "northern Samaria," a policy known as the "disengagement." Israel is re-establishing the settlements in the northern West Bank, and he is calling for the same in Gaza.

via Reuters

In the post, Smotrich referenced the upcoming Israeli elections, warning that a "left-wing" government won't expand settlements as aggressively.

"Before us stands the choice, between a right-wing government that will continue the momentum of construction and expand it, and a dangerous left-wing government that openly declares its intention to evacuate settlements and outposts and to promote a 'political agreement,'"7 Smotrich said.

"And from northern Samaria – to Gaza! The Settlement Administration under my leadership is prepared to establish 3 settlements in the northern sector of the Gaza Strip, and I call on the Prime Minister to give the green light to the move. Together we correct the sin of the disengagement," he added.

Smotrich also holds a ministerial position in the Israeli Defense Ministry, where he oversees the Settlement Administration. He first announced in June that the body had drawn up plans for three settlements in Gaza and was just waiting for the green light from Netanyahu.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, has also said that Israel will establish three "Nachala outposts" - a type of settlement that starts as a community for IDF soldiers with the goal of establishing a permanent civilian presence.

Katz recently boasted of the destruction of Gaza cities during a visit to the northern part of the Strip. When asked how the view of the destruction made him feel, the Israeli minister said, "I feel good. Thank God. This is all the result of a deliberate policy aimed at removing threats. Instead of the raid method—going in and out—the IDF is inside, the terrorists are outside, and the houses are destroyed."

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 21:45

SpaceX In "Final Stages" Of Securing New Massive Rocket Launch Site In Louisiana

Several Louisiana media outlets report that Elon Musk's SpaceX is in the "final stages" of securing approximately 130,000 acres on Pecan Island for a massive new spaceport to launch rockets into orbit.

The Times-Picayune reports a source with knowledge about the deal said SpaceX is poised to take control of roughly 130,000 acres at Pecan Island - more specifically, the coastal Vermilion Parish - as part of a settlement resolving long-running coastal lawsuits against ExxonMobil. Gov. Jeff Landry is expected to announce the agreement this month.

The outlet KPEL provided additional details:

Gov. Landry announced a settlement of the coastal lawsuits in June. Under that agreement, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana, ExxonMobil is expected to turn over land it has owned in Vermilion Parish since the 1950s, property long leased out for hunting and fishing. The terms have not been made public.

SpaceX would then take control of the site, with provisions built in for coastal restoration and protection, according to a source with knowledge of the deal.

Landry has confirmed the coastal settlement but declined to discuss the SpaceX deal specifically, and Louisiana Economic Development Secretary Susan Bourgeois has offered no comment either. SpaceX hasn't named Louisiana directly, though the company acknowledged in a social media post that it's scouting new sites to expand Starship launch operations.

KPEL explained why Pecan Island best fits SpaceX's launch requirements:

Pecan Island has a permanent population of about 100 people along Louisiana Highway 82. Aerospace experts point to a handful of reasons that sparse setting appeals to SpaceX: deep-water access along the Intracoastal Waterway for barging in rocket hardware, a location roughly midway between the company's Texas and Florida facilities, and a local supply of natural gas. SpaceX has also told regulators it wants to launch up to a million low-Earth-orbit satellites in the coming years, a plan that will require more launch pads.

Everything Elon Musk blog Elon Chron's S.E. Robinson, Jr. wrote on X:

SPACEX: Louisiana State Senator Bob Hensgens, who represents Vermilion Parish, confirmed yesterday, ongoing talks between "a space exploration company" and Exxon-Mobil for the potential purchase of 136,000 acres south of Hwy La. 14, west of Intracoastal City, north/south of Pecan Island, extending to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge in Cameron Parish.

The land is owned by Exxon-Mobil with surface rights managed by Vermilion Corporation. Hensgens could not name the space company, but stated he declined to sign a non-disclosure agreement for transparency purposes.

There is also talk about the possible construction of a coastal levee. The area is prone to hurricanes, so this would be a necessity.

More SpaceX news in today's ELON CHRON below!

SPACEX: Louisiana State Senator Bob Hensgens, who represents Vermilion Parish, confirmed yesterday, ongoing talks between "a space exploration company" and Exxon-Mobil for the potential purchase of 136,000 acres south of Hwy La. 14, west of Intracoastal City, north/south of Pecan… https://t.co/nSHbWqikKZ pic.twitter.com/HCwKGbco4G

— S.E. Robinson, Jr. (@SERobinsonJr) May 8, 2026

If SpaceX secures the Pecan Island site, it would establish the company's second major Starship launch complex, alongside Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, where it already employs 3,400 people. SpaceX is the world's leading launch provider, beating out entire nation states, and continues to rapidly expand its rocket and AI-driven manufacturing capabilities.

A second SpaceX launch site in Louisiana would be transformative for the state. The project is expected to create thousands of construction jobs during the build-out; although only a fraction of the 130,000-acre site would be developed, the remainder would serve as a safety and environmental buffer. Once operational, the launch, manufacturing, engineering, and support workforce could number in the thousands, establishing a major new aerospace hub along the Gulf Coast.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 21:20

Capital One Cites Anti-Money Laundering Review Over Trump Organization Debanking Claims

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

Capital One asked a judge to dismiss a lawsuit brought by the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, part of the Trump Organization, claiming that the bank's 2021 debanking of hundreds of Trump-linked accounts followed an internal anti-money laundering review and not the political discrimination the plaintiffs allege.

President Donald Trump prepares to board Air Force One at Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown, N.J., on Aug. 2, 2026. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

In a motion to dismiss filed on July 31 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida before Judge Roy Altman, Capital One said the accounts were terminated after a review by anti-money-laundering experts.

The filing said that "documents and Plaintiffs' own allegations make clear that Capital One closed Plaintiffs' accounts for anti-money laundering (AML) reasons."

"The closures were the result of months of analysis and a careful review by Capital One's AML team in accordance with bank policies and regulatory guidance," it added.

Capital One said in the filing that the Trump Organization's allegations of political pretext were "misguided" and "based on cherry-picked quotations unsupported by the full context" of documents submitted to the court.

It did not accuse the Trump Organization of money laundering.

The case, filed in 2025, focuses on Capital One's March 2021 decision to close deposit accounts held by the Trump Organization and related entities.

Capital One informed the Trump Organization in March 2021 that "hundreds" of its bank accounts would be closed by June 7, 2021, according to an original lawsuit filed by The Trump Organization and Eric Trump, the president's son, in Miami-Dade Circuit Court in March 2025.

The plaintiffs said they believed Capital One was harboring "unsubstantiated, woke" beliefs that "it needed to distance itself from President Trump and his conservative political views," which they alleged motivated the bank to abruptly close the organizations' accounts.

At the time, Capital One told The Epoch Times that it "has not and does not close customer accounts for political reasons."

Capital One's recent filing said the rules governing the accounts allow it to "close any account in our sole discretion at any time for any or no reason."

Capital One's first attempt to dismiss the case, filed in May 2025, was withdrawn after the plaintiffs filed an amended complaint the following month.

Its second attempt succeeded in March this year, when a judge dismissed the case but gave the plaintiffs another chance to refile.

Capital One is now asking the court to dismiss the current complaint and said that the latest version "suffers from the same fundamental flaws as their prior two pleadings."

President Donald Trump also filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase in January over alleged debanking.

Alejandro Brito, the president's personal attorney, filed a $5 billion lawsuit on Jan. 22 in Miami's Florida state court on behalf of the president and his hospitality companies.

Following the January 2021 breach of the U.S. Capitol, the largest bank in the United States shuttered the accounts of Trump and his related entities.

JPMorgan told The Epoch Times that the case "has no merit."

Trump signed an executive order in August 2025 to stop banks from denying people financial services because of their political or religious beliefs, a practice known as debanking.

According to a White House fact sheet, the executive order requires federal banking regulators to investigate whether banks have engaged in "politicized or unlawful debanking" and to issue penalties such as "fines or consent decrees."

The order also directs regulators to remove terms such as "reputational risk" from their guidance - language that has allegedly been used to justify debanking.

The Trump Organization and Capital One did not immediately respond to The Epoch Times' requests for comment.

Troy Myers, Andrew Moran, and Emel Akan contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 20:55

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Crushes Woke Odyssey Film At Box Office

Hollywood pulled out all the stops for "The Odyssey" - They relied heavily on director Christopher Nolan's built-in and generally pretentious audience to drive early box office revenues. 

The hype machine was running non-stop for months before the release.  The distributor's focused heavily on IMAX ticket sales, which cost more than double a normal theater ticket. They attempted to hide the woke content of the film from the public for as long as possible (an ancient Greek epic with no Greeks, featuring black, Asian, Hispanic and trans actors with a story that deconstructs the hero's journey of Odysseus, making him into a broken shell of a man.  Historical inaccuracies and modernization are rampant in the movie.

Critical websites also froze the audience ratings above 95% by rejecting most negative reviews. 

Despite all of this, The Odyssey's early box office was not impressive compared to most blockbuster movies.  It didn't even break the top 60 movies for opening weekend revenues (adjusted for inflation).  The political left rushed onto social media to declare victory, claiming that "Get Woke, Go Broke is over". 

Then, Spider Man: Brand New Day opened and ate The Odyssey's lunch, showing how a real blockbuster is supposed to perform.  

For its opening weekend, Spider Man raked in $927 million worldwide - Compare that to The Odyssey's $264 million global box office for the first weekend. Spider Man crushed The Odyssey without trying.  Spider Man is projected to make around $2.5 billion in the next few weeks while Nolan's movie is struggling to hit $1 billion.  If Nolan had made a non-woke movie, maybe he would have had better numbers.

The Odyssey's theater take sounds like a success, despite being easily surpassed by Spider Man.  However, with all the bluster over the film's "woke triumph", leftists are avoiding an inconvenient truth: The Odyssey has yet to make a single penny in raw profit.  

Nolan's woke translation has brought in $911 million after three weeks, but it needs around $950 million just to break even.  This is accounting for marketing costs, theaters taking their 50% cut, and Nolan taking his own 20% cut of revenues as part of his contract.  Will the Odyssey break even?  Probably, but Universal Studios will be straining to make any meaningful profit from the production.

Nolan will be laughing all the way to the bank, but distributors will not be as fortunate.  Spider Man has already surpassed the break even point and made a profit.

In the end, The Odyssey will represent nothing more than a woke vanity project for a director who is fading in talent. Nolan says he may be taking several years away from the business after Odyssey, which means Hollywood expended all its ammunition on one last stand.   

The Hollywood model has long been to force progressive content on audiences while ignoring public pleas for less propaganda.  In the minds of the elites, the masses must be conditioned over time to accept wokeness.  They believe that if they saturate the market for long enough, movie-goers will eventually capitulate and accept woke as the new normal.  This has not happened. 

Instead, nearly every woke movie and streaming series has failed, losing the industry billions in cumulative production costs.  Studios have been forced in the past couple of years to return to less political messaging and more classic entertainment. 

The Odyssey is a defiant rebellion, specifically designed as a vehicle to revitalize the Hollywood argument in favor of woke content.  Yet, compared to non-woke movies, the profit margin is looking dismal.

The political left never learns, they only double down on failure and convince themselves that their own propaganda is reality.  Even if one considers The Odyssey a "success" for making it's money back, how many woke movies can Christopher Nolan possibly direct?  One every few years?  No other director has a similar simp audience to lean on. 

Meaning, The Odyssey is likely the last gasp, the death rattle of far-left content gaining any momentum in theaters for years to come.  One woke movie breaking even does not make up for hundreds of box office disasters.     

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 20:30

The Pentagon's Hidden Housing Scandal: Outsourcing Duty Of Care

Authored by Jay Rogers via RealClearDefense,

Sen. Jon Ossoff released a report on July 8 documenting lead exposure in a newborn, mold-related emergency room visits, and a cockroach infestation living inside a family's oven, all in privatized military housing at Fort Benning and Fort Stewart. Read it and you'd think it was written in 2022. It wasn't. That's the scandal: the Pentagon outsourced a duty of care to private landlords and never enforced the contracts meant to keep it intact.

I've spent thirty years in institutional investment management and now serve as an expert witness in fiduciary litigation. The pattern is one I recognize immediately: an institution hands a core obligation to a private operator, collects a fee for oversight it doesn't actually perform, and treats the delegation itself as if it discharged the duty. It didn't. Outsourcing a duty of care doesn't outsource the duty.

Congress created the Military Housing Privatization Initiative in 1996 to fix decrepit on-base housing without loading the capital cost onto the Pentagon's books. Private companies would own, renovate, and maintain the homes under leases running as long as fifty years, with servicemembers' Basic Allowance for Housing flowing straight to the landlord as rent. The Pentagon would keep oversight, backed by incentive fees for good performance and penalties for bad. On paper, a clean alignment of interests. In practice, a guaranteed revenue stream with an oversight function nobody actually staffed.

Fort Stewart's housing has been run by Balfour Beatty Communities since the base was privatized. In December 2021, Balfour Beatty pleaded guilty to one count of major fraud against the United States, agreeing to pay more than $65 million in criminal fines, restitution, and a related civil settlement. The company's employees falsified maintenance records and destroyed resident comment cards between 2013 and 2019 to fraudulently collect incentive fees they hadn't earned. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said the fraud was "a consequence of BBC's broken corporate culture" that put profit ahead of servicemembers' welfare.

Four months later, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations found the conduct hadn't stopped. Its bipartisan staff report on the mistreatment of military families in privatized housing documented that Balfour's post-2019 behavior mirrored the misconduct behind its guilty plea; in the same period the company was under active federal investigation. A company can plead guilty to defrauding the government over housing conditions and keep collecting Basic Allowance for Housing checks from the families living in the homes it failed.

Fast-forward to this month. Fort Stewart is still Balfour Beatty's. Fort Benning's housing is run by a different company, the Michaels Organization's Villages of Benning. Ossoff's report found nearly identical failures at both: mold, lead, cover-ups, families told their complaints were handled when they weren't. That detail should stop anyone from treating this as one bad company. Two operators, two installations, the same pattern. The failure sits in the oversight structure, not the logo on the leasing office.

The government's own auditors have said as much. In an April 2023 report, the Government Accountability Office made 19 recommendations to improve DOD's oversight of privatized housing, including a priority recommendation that the Pentagon set clear, consistent, department-wide home inspection standards, after finding that comparable maintenance problems were getting graded differently depending on who held the clipboard. As of GAO's most recent public status update, that priority recommendation was still open, with DOD not expecting signed guidance until mid-2025 at the earliest. Congress had to legislate the fix GAO had already recommended.

This is the same structural failure I've written about previously in public pension governance, wearing a uniform instead of a suit. A pension trustee who delegates asset management to an outside manager doesn't delegate away fiduciary responsibility for the outcome; the law is explicit that the duty stays with the trustee. The Pentagon's relationship with its housing contractors works the same way as a matter of principle, even though the enforcement mechanism is a lease rather than ERISA. Both share the same defect: an incentive-fee structure that pays out on paperwork instead of results, and an oversight office too thin to catch the difference until a senator's staff does the job for it.

That fix is now in the books. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December, directs the Secretary of War to establish a standard inspection and audit program for privatized and government-owned housing using independent, qualified inspectors, and separately tightens the rules on when a housing company may close a maintenance work order. Falsified paperwork closed BBC's work orders and inflated its bonuses for six years before anyone with subpoena power looked at the underlying data; an inspector who doesn't answer to the landlord closes that loophole.

Whether the law works depends on what determines whether any oversight regime works: whether a breach costs the party responsible for it. Balfour Beatty's $65 million penalty amounted to roughly one percent of the $6 billion in military housing assets the company reported managing at the time of its plea. A one-percent toll on a six-year fraud scheme is a minor cost of doing business, not a deterrent. If the penalty barely registers against the portfolio, the next audit will look exactly like the last one. Congress wrote the inspection program. It still has to write the consequence.

Jay Rogers is a financial professional with more than 30 years of experience in private equity, private credit, hedge funds, and wealth management. He has a BS from Northeastern University and has completed postgraduate studies at UCLA, UPENN, and Harvard. He writes about issues in finance, constitutional law, national security, human nature, and public policy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 20:05

The Kospi Made South Korean President Lee Jae Myung; It May Yet Unmake Him...

There is a particular cruelty in the timing. When the Kospi began its final, cratering descent in late July, President Lee Jae Myung was roughly 11,000 miles away, midway through an 11-day diplomatic tour of South America, watching from hotel suites as the index he had made the totem of his presidency collapsed. His finance minister apologized to lawmakers. The heads of both financial regulators cancelled their holidays as retail investors laid funeral wreaths at the gates of the National Assembly in Yeouido.

Near the main gate of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, there are condolence flowers installed calling for the delisting of single-stock leveraged ETFs. (Photo: Yonhap News)

From its record close of 9,114.55 on June 22, the benchmark fell into the 5,600s by July 30 - a peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 39 percent on a closing basis, erasing more than $2 trillion in market value in under six weeks. Trading was halted four times during the month, a record run of circuit-breaker suspensions for a tool that was barely used before this year.

Then, on Friday, after an emergency late-night meeting of the country's top financial authorities produced a package of curbs on leveraged products, the index ripped 17.91 percent higher to close at 6,595.45 - the largest single-day gain in its history. SK Hynix hit its 30 percent daily limit. Samsung gained 27 percent. On Monday it gave back 5.12 percent, closing at 6,257.45.

Some retail traders have vowed not to step back in.

Samsung fell 8.76 percent, SK Hynix 8.79 percent. Foreign and institutional investors sold a net 2.84 trillion won and 1.95 trillion won of shares respectively. Retail investors bought a net 4.65 trillion won - stepping in front of the same train, four days after the government had promised to protect them from it.

Also on Monday, Realmeter published a weekly tracker putting Lee's approval at 45.9 percent, the lowest of his presidency, with disapproval at 50.5 percent - crossing the majority threshold for the first time. The fieldwork matters here: 2,508 respondents surveyed from July 27 to 31, with a margin of error of two points. The poll closed on the day of the record rally and captured none of Monday's reversal. Realmeter attributed the third consecutive weekly decline to the market rout and to a parallel controversy over whether a constitutional amendment might let a sitting president seek reelection.

The same pollster had Lee at 59.7 percent in May, against 35.7 percent disapproving. A net positive margin of twenty-four points has become a net negative of nearly five - a swing of some twenty-eight points in under three months. Realmeter runs lower than its peers; Gallup had him at 51 percent in late June, the National Barometer Survey at 53 percent on July 30. But all three recorded lows for his presidency, and all three were falling.

The problem of ownership

Presidents survive bad markets all the time, but this debacle is Lee's to own - after running in 2025 on a campaign drive the Kospi past 5,000 - an unusual promise for a head of state, and one he blew past in January. He is a former day trader, a fact his opponents recite with relish. He urged Koreans to move their savings out of Seoul property and into equities. In June, with the index sagging below 8,000, he told reporters the retreat was temporary and Korean shares remained undervalued. His policy chief, Kim Yong-beom, predicted Korea would become a top-three equity market by capitalization within three years.

And then there are the ETFs.

The sixteen single-stock leveraged and inverse funds tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix launched on May 27, roughly a week before the June local elections - instruments that use derivatives and debt to double a stock's daily move, sold to professionals almost everywhere else in the world. Retail investors poured about 78 trillion won ($54.2 billion) into Kospi shares across May and June. As we noted, three SK Hynix vehicles alone held over $23 billion at the peak - more than 2.5 times average daily turnover in the underlying shares. Assets across the complex went from under $10 billion at the start of 2026 to more than $50 billion in June, then down to roughly $16 billion by late July.

The combined weight of the two chipmakers in the Kospi rose from 51.06 percent on May 26, the day before listing, to 55.17 percent by July 10. Their share of total market trading value went from roughly 30 percent to 44 percent. A market that was already a two-stock bet became a two-stock bet with a gamma engine bolted on.

The opposition's charge is not that Lee failed to prevent a crash. It is that his office built the machine that produced one. "It was pushed through at an extraordinary pace," said Park Soo-young, a People Power Party member of the National Assembly's Strategy and Finance Committee, arguing that such speed was inconceivable without direction from the presidential office. The PPP is now demanding Kim Yong-beom's dismissal and a full parliamentary investigation. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol, pressed by lawmakers on whether he would resign, said it would be irresponsible to speculate while markets were still unstable.

That is the language of a government buying time with subordinates. It usually works. It works less well when the paper trail leads upward.

The arithmetic says he is safe

South Korean impeachment requires 200 votes in a 300-seat National Assembly, followed by Constitutional Court confirmation. Lee's Democratic Party holds 179 seats. Removing him would require his own party to supply twenty-one executioners - and the DP has no incentive to hand the presidency back to a PPP that lost the June local elections nationwide, capturing only Seoul's mayoralty as consolation. There is no national election until April 2028. Lee's term runs to 2030. He is fourteen months in.

The market case for calm is similarly strong. Even at Monday's close the Kospi sits at roughly double its 52-week low, and Bloomberg had it up more than 50 percent on the year as of Friday's close, the best performance among the world's biggest economies. The fundamentals underneath are not the problem: SK Hynix posted record second-quarter revenue of 79.3 trillion won, up 257 percent year on year, at a 76 percent operating margin. Samsung's preliminary operating profit for the period rose nineteenfold to about 89.4 trillion won. Korean semiconductor exports in June came in at $44.8 billion, up 199.5 percent. Morgan Stanley upgraded Korea to overweight on the back of the leverage unwind. Lale Akoner of eToro, who called the episode a textbook collision of a crowded trade and leverage, was careful to add that it should not be read as a collapse of the AI investment case.

Both chipmakers fell hard anyway, on the days they reported those numbers. That is the tell: this is a positioning event, not an earnings event. Positioning events resolve.

On the numbers, Lee is in no danger whatsoever.

THAT SAID...

South Korea has impeached two presidents in the last decade. Park Geun-hye in 2016. Yoon Suk Yeol in December 2024, which is the only reason Lee holds the office at all. Whatever the threshold once meant as a norm, it now means considerably less. What changed in both cases was not the seat count on day one - it was ruling-party lawmakers deciding the president had become a heavier liability than the opposition.

Three things could shift that calculation.

The first is the scale of household damage, which is no longer hypothetical. By July 13, more than 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts had triggered margin calls, with an estimated 320,000 to 360,000 fully liquidated by brokers - some left owing money. Korea Investment & Securities reported that nearly half of its 880,000 clients holding Samsung were underwater, and nearly 70 percent of its 408,000 SK Hynix investors. The KODEX SK Hynix leveraged product is down more than 80 percent from its June peak. This is not a story about speculators. In a country of 52 million, it is a story about a constituency.

The second is the Democratic Party's own convention - though here the case has to be made against the present data rather than with it. In a companion Realmeter survey, DP support rose 3.8 points last week to 45.1 percent, while the PPP fell 2.9 points to 37.7 percent. The party is gaining as its president falls, and that is precisely the configuration under which lawmakers stay loyal. What changes it is the calendar. Song Young-gil, competing for the leadership, has already said the presidential office's policy line needs thorough re-examination. Whoever wins runs the party into the 2028 general election - the contest that determines whether the DP ever reaches the two-thirds majority it has coveted. A party polling ahead of the opposition has no reason to move against its own president. A party leader who concludes that Lee's name on the ballot costs seats is the beginning of a lame-duck presidency, and Korean presidents are traditionally devoured by their own side, not by the opposition.

The third is the constitutional amendment, and this is where Lee has already, almost certainly, lost something irretrievable. Placing a two-term, four-year presidency at the top of a 123-item agenda was the signature legacy project. Article 128(2) bars the sitting president from benefiting, so this was never about his own reelection; it was about being the president who rewrote the 1987 constitution. Amendment requires 200 votes and a national referendum, meaning PPP cooperation. Speaker Cho Jeong-sik has floated 2027 as the window - and his suggestion that voters should decide whether an incumbent may seek another term is, on Realmeter's own reading, one of the two forces currently dragging Lee's numbers down. The legacy project has become a liability before it has become a bill. A president polling below 50 percent, with two trillion dollars of household wealth destroyed on his ledger and a parliamentary investigation pending, has no leverage to extract twenty-one opposition votes for anything.

What losing the job actually looks like South Korean President Lee Jae Myung attends an agreement-signing event at Villa Doria Pamphili in Rome, Italy, June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Remo Casilli/File Photo Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 19:40

"I No Longer Trust Anyone..."

Authored by Todd Hayen via Off-Guardian.org,

Sad, but true. Since the Covid fiasco, I’ve seen the true nature of people - or at least the nature they were willing to show once the fear got turned up and the herd started moving.

Most of them are still firmly under the sheep banner, content to graze wherever they’re told.

A small handful stand under the “critical thinker” banner. Those are the ones I still trust.

The sheepies? I don’t trust them anymore. Did I ever, really? I thought I did, back when I was younger and still believed most people were basically decent when the chips were down. Turns out that was optimistic.

Lately this loss of trust has had me thinking about the American Wild West. Not the Hollywood version—the real one.

Back then, almost every man who wanted to stay alive carried a revolver on his hip. It wasn’t for show. You never knew when some mean-eyed bastard might decide your horse, your money, or your life was worth more to him than it was to you.

The sensible ones stayed ready. They watched people. They didn’t assume good intentions just because someone smiled and said howdy. Trust was something you earned slowly, usually after a man had proven he wouldn’t sell you out the first time it became convenient.

So, did folks in that dusty, hard country go around trusting their neighbours? Hell no. You bet your boots they didn’t. And the ones who did—the tenderfoots who rode into town believing everybody was basically good underneath—usually got fleeced, shot, or both. The sheep of that era didn’t last long.

I keep coming back to that because it feels uncomfortably close to where we are now. The difference is the wolves don’t need to hide behind a bandana anymore. They wear white coats, or sit in glass offices, or smile at you from a television screen while they tell you what you need to do for your own good.

And the sheep-types? They didn’t just follow along during Covid. A lot of them became enthusiastic enforcers.

They reported neighbours for having too many people over for dinner. They cut off family members who wouldn’t take the shot. They posted smug little memes about how the unvaccinated were selfish and stupid while their own kids were losing years of school and their elderly parents were dying alone in nursing homes. They did it with a clear conscience, because the authorities had given them permission to be cruel.

That’s the part that still sticks in my throat. Not the government lying—governments always lie when it suits them. Not even Big Pharma doing what Big Pharma does—make scads of money and not giving a crap who suffers for it. It was the ordinary people, the ones I used to think were mostly harmless, who turned out to be so willing to turn on anyone who stepped out of line.

The masked Karens. The vaccine passport enthusiasts. The ones who genuinely seemed to enjoy punishing others for non-compliance. I saw longtime friends and even family members do things I would have sworn they were incapable of. And they did it without a second thought. That’s what really got to me—not the betrayal itself, but how easily it came to them. How little it seemed to cost them.

The rest of us were the ones who kept their powder dry. We asked questions when the story kept changing. We noticed the bodies didn’t match the narrative. We refused to pretend that “following the science” meant following whatever the people who owned the science told us to do.

For that, we got called dangerous, selfish, and—my personal favourite—grandma killers. The irony was almost funny if you had a dark enough sense of humour. The real danger was coming from the people screaming the loudest about keeping everyone safe.

I don’t know if this loss of trust is permanent. Maybe it softens over time. But right now, it feels pretty solid. I still have my circle. Those are the people I can still talk to without wondering whether the conversation is going to end up on some government list or get repeated at the next family gathering as evidence of how crazy I’ve become. With them I can lower my guard a little. We’ve got each other’s backs. That counts for something in a world where most people will throw you under the bus the moment the authorities give them a good enough reason.

Everyone else?

I’ll be polite. I’ll make small talk. I’ll even hold the damn door. But I’m not handing over trust again just because someone seems nice or shares my politics or went to the same school. That ship sailed somewhere around 2021, and I don’t see it coming back into port anytime soon. Once you’ve watched people you cared about turn into informants and punishers, it changes how you move through the world. You don’t go back to the old way of seeing things. You can’t.

Maybe that’s the real lesson buried in all this mess. The Wild West never actually ended. The outlaws just got better costumes and much better PR. And the sheep-types learned to police each other instead of waiting for the sheriff. The thinkers are still here, though—eyes open, hands near the metaphorical holster, not particularly interested in pretending everything is fine just to make other people comfortable.

All this has seemed to calm down a bit. But don’t kid yourself. It is still there. That’s the hard part now; you can’t tell who from who. But you know it is there. There are still occasional masks, a tell-tale sign the murmuring sheep-mind is still bubbling underneath. We don’t have to be mean to strangers; we can still love our fellow human beings no matter how lost they may be, but we must be wary, and not automatically expect a helping hand if needed.

So yeah. I no longer trust anyone the way I used to. And I’m not sure that’s entirely a bad thing. It’s clarifying, at least.

You find out who’s really with you when the pressure is on. And you find out who was only ever along for the ride until it got inconvenient. The ones who stayed? Those are my people now. The rest can go graze somewhere else.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 19:15