Zero Hedge

From The City Of Angels To The City Of Zombies...

From The City Of Angels To The City Of Zombies...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

The Jungle Drums Speak!

"Love that the crack heads on Skid Row are up on the issues, know the candidates, and are able to Make Their Voices Heard in between hits of meth."

- Peachy Keenan on X

Whaddaya know? Looks like the charismatic Nithya Raman has overtaken maverick candidate Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayoral “jungle” primary because. . . jungle reasons. That is, the denizens of LA’s vast homeless encampments — once known as “hobo jungles” — apparently voted overwhelmingly by mail for the Harvard-credentialed champion of street-junkies in the Silver Lake, Echo Park, Los Feliz, Atwater, and Hollywood neighborhoods (SELAH) she represents on the LA City Council.

LA Mayoral Candidate, Nithya Ramen, Champion of the Down-and-Out

So, it will be a November runoff between the super-duper “progressive” incumbent Karen Bass, and merely super-progressive Ms. Ramen. Better reserve your U-Haul trailer ASAP, as the City of Angels completes its transformation to the City of Zombies. And no complaining, please. This is what you voted for.

By the way, what does “progressive” actually mean these days? Progress towards. . . what? The culminating disintegration of a civil polity? The concerted failure to govern a large, urban organism? Unconditional surrender to the forces of entropy? One might suspect a soupçon of racial animus in the mix, too, something of a middle-finger to this thing called white supremacy we hear so much about. It must be rooted out at all costs, including the cost of a place that a productive population once loved — the very people renting all those U-Hauls, dispersing out into the USA gloaming.

Of course, this “progressive” Democratic Party has transformed itself in a decade or so into an out-and-out racketeering operation, that is, to a criminal enterprise dedicated to the misappropriation of taxpayer money among its rank and file, many of whom are not citizens. The model is not unlike more primitive early versions, such as Boss Tweed’s ring in 19th century New York, or the gang under mayor James Curley, the “Rascal King” of Boston. The system was known as “patronage.” Voters were the party’s patrons, and the patrons were on the payroll. Some had actual party jobs. Some just got free stuff in exchange for their votes. They called it a “machine” because its operations became automatic, self-fulfilling.

There was one big difference, though: these earlier Democratic Party grifters, for all their moneygrubbing shenanigans, were American patriots. They celebrated a country so ostentatiously “free,” so fervently dedicated to upward mobility, that it made room for their garish political corruption. The Democratic machine of Los Angeles today is quite the opposite: It’s a faction that loathes and detests the American system and seeks sedulously to destroy it, even while grabbing as much loot as it can in the process.

Mayor Karen Bass was trained for that mission in Cuba. Beginning at age 19, in 1973, Ms. Bass made eight trips there with the Venceremos Brigade (founded in 1969 by the Lefty-left SDS) to “show solidarity with the Cuban revolution,” which, you might remember, was a straight-up communist revolution. One might infer, then, that Mayor Bass is a straight-up communist, with ambitions to destroy the capitalist city of Los Angeles, so as to replace it with a communist utopia — where all production (if there is any) is owned and controlled by the government, which then dispenses the fruits-of-production to the people, according to their needs, as officers of the government see fit.

In such a system, history shows, the people enjoy no ability to make decisions for themselves about what sort of work to pursue for their own improvement and well-being — what we call economic liberty. That’s all left to the political office-holders, the kommisars, the decision-makers, who tell everybody else what to do (because, you see, they know better). It has not worked too well in practice, as the collapse of Soviet Russia demonstrated, and the imminent collapse now of Cuba, will validate.

This is also exactly what you see in the aftermath of the Los Angeles fires of 2025. There was the fiasco of the fire itself in which everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, in the way of prevention and mitigation. The incompetence of Los Angeles city officials was so total — from the mayor’s absence in Africa, the fire chief’s cluelessness, the empty reservoirs, the broken fire hydrants, etc. — that Pacific Palisades and Altadena across town got completely destroyed. In the eighteen months since, the city’s bureaucracy (with “help” from the state) has made sure that next-to-nothing can be rebuilt. Since a large number of people employed in the movie industry lived in these places, and were left financially ruined, Karen Bass’s government has also neatly helped destroy the city’s signature business. . . a home run for communists!

Marxian economic theory is appealing to those who hate and oppose the natural fact that not all outcomes in human life are equal, who resent with red-hot passion the human tendency to social hierarchy, and work fanatically to defeat it. They never do, of course. In communist revolutions hierarchy always reorganizes itself — only within the party structure itself, while all extra-party human effort is outlawed. In California, as in the other “blue” states and cities, Democratic Party leaders perch in the upper branches of the social hierarchy while they cream-off all available revenue streams.

If you suspect there’s something shady about the California election system, you might be onto to something. President Trump thinks this is the case, and said so pretty forcefully on Sunday in his confab with the argumentative Kirsten Welker of NBC’s Meet the Press show. “There’s no evidence!” Ms. Welker repeated strenuously, of voting irregularity, either in this month’s California jungle primary, or in the 2020 national election. You think? I guess we’ll see about that.

Remember: former president Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela — home of the Smartmatic vote tabulation system — has been in US custody for months.

Do you suppose he might be trying to cut a deal for himself to avoid a very long prison sentence by disclosing what he knows about Smartmatic?

Do you suppose that Mr. Trump might know something about these ongoing negotiations?

Do you wonder if any of that has occurred to Kirsten Welker of Meet the Press?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 16:20

'Chat Is Dead': OpenAI's Pre-IPO Makeover Into A "Superapp"

'Chat Is Dead': OpenAI's Pre-IPO Makeover Into A "Superapp"

The year the private-AI complex finally has to show its work has arrived, and ChatGPT maker OpenAI is about to add some major garnishing to the prospectus before their upcoming IPO - in what FT is calling the "biggest overhaul of ChatGPT since launch."

"It will transcend the actual surface . . . what we’re building towards is where you have your own personal agent that is capable of helping you . . . across everything in your life, be it personally or at work," said Thibault Sottiaux, who previously ran Codex and now leads all of OpenAI’s core product and platform.

Context: Over the last three weeks, the three most valuable private companies in the space announced IPOs. SpaceX filed its S-1 in May, months after folding xAI into itself. Anthropic filed a confidential draft S-1 on June 1, reportedly targeting an October listing. And OpenAI filed its own confidential draft around May 22, aiming for a debut as soon as September at a private valuation of roughly $730 billion to $850 billion, with IPO chatter pushing toward $1 trillion. The back half of 2026 is now the first real test of whether public investors will pay the prices private rounds have set.

"Chat Is Dead"

"Chat is dead," one senior OpenAI employee told the FT - which is a crazy thing to hear given that ChatGPT is what brought us here, and still has nearly a billion users. The obvious interpretation: OpenAI is moving away from chat because chat does not pay, at least not quickly enough to support a near-trillion-dollar valuation.

Adoption was never the problem. ChatGPT has nearly a billion users, most of them on the free tier. The problem is that the flagship product remains a low-margin consumer chatbot while the company burns roughly $14 billion a year against revenue that crossed $20 billion by the end of 2025. Depending on how that revenue is annualized and what multiple investors apply, OpenAI's valuation range implies a price-to-sales multiple from the mid-30s to the low 60s. Walking into a roadshow near $1 trillion while presenting the golden goose as a beloved money-loser is not a viable option.

The company has also reorganized. ChatGPT, Codex, and other product teams have been consolidated under a single leader, Sottiaux, while several senior executives - including former product head Kevin Weil - have departed. Key-person churn in the weeks before an S-1 filing is, notable.

According to FT and other reporting, here's what's new:

  • ChatGPT is being redesigned from a standalone chatbot into a gateway for higher-value products. The website and mobile apps are expected to be reworked so users are pushed toward coding tools, image generation, AI agents, and partner-built applications rather than simply returning to a general-purpose chat interface.
     
  • OpenAI is adding prompts and interface features that steer users toward monetizable use cases. The company is expected to add new surfaces inside ChatGPT that direct users toward Codex, image tools, and apps from partners such as Canva and Booking.com. The partners themselves are not new; their more prominent placement inside the ChatGPT flow is.
     
  • The company plans to remove that scaffolding over time. The longer-term goal is for OpenAI’s models to infer what users want without requiring explicit prompts, buttons, or routing cues. That roadmap detail appears to be one of the more specific new elements in the report.
     
  • The “superapp” framing is being elevated as the new investor-facing story. OpenAI is increasingly presenting ChatGPT as a single interface that can absorb chat, coding, agents, search-like tasks, image generation, and third-party services. The underlying components have existed in pieces, but the report frames them as one consolidated product thesis.
     
  • Codex is being pushed closer to the center of ChatGPT. OpenAI’s coding product is receiving greater prominence and resources as the company shifts attention toward products with clearer paid usage and enterprise demand. The Codex push was already underway, but the report makes it central to the ChatGPT overhaul.
     
  • The personal-agent vision is being packaged as the next version of ChatGPT. OpenAI is positioning the product around a single assistant that can help across personal and work tasks, reachable through mobile, desktop, web, and voice. The company has been moving toward agents for some time; what is newly elevated is the idea that this agent becomes the primary ChatGPT experience.
     
  • The enterprise pivot is being tied directly to the ChatGPT redesign. OpenAI’s push toward business customers and competition with Anthropic is not new. What is newly emphasized is the way the consumer interface is being reshaped to support that shift, turning ChatGPT into a funnel for higher-value, work-oriented products.

The revamp is expected to begin rolling out in the coming weeks - right inside the IPO window, when every interface change, resource shift, and product decision doubles as investor messaging meant to burnish the prospectus.

One issue with a 'superapp': structural coherence. A consumer funnel that routes users to third-party apps like Canva and Booking.com, an enterprise business built around Codex, and a long-horizon AGI bet are three different businesses with three different margin profiles, customer-acquisition dynamics, and capital requirements. OpenAI is now trying to staple them together within an agentic ecosystem - something that was always going to happen.

So OpenAI is building the only story that can survive diligence: enterprise seats, Codex, and agents that perform billable work. Codex's weekly active users have grown sixfold to more than five million since the February desktop launch, with the majority of users paying. Enterprise already accounts for around 40 percent of revenue and is expected to reach 50 percent by year-end. That sequencing is, almost line for line, the "make money first" approach Anthropic has followed for years. The convergence is no longer subtle.

That said, the revamp does not amount to panic. Agents and coding tools really are where the technical and commercial frontier is moving anyway. Codex's growth trajectory is real, and a majority-paying user mix is what you want going into an IPO

Meanwhile, what's Dario gonna do? Anthropic also burns substantial cash and has told investors it may not reach break-even until 2028. Both companies are walking into the same public-market daylight this year. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 15:40

Judge Blocks Trump's $100,000 Fee For H-1B Visas

Judge Blocks Trump's $100,000 Fee For H-1B Visas

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump's $100,000 fee for H-1B visas is not legal, a federal judge said on June 8.

President Donald Trump speaks before signing an executive order in the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington on Aug. 5, 2025. Win McNamee/Getty Images

The fee for visas for specialty foreign workers "imposes a tax on H-1B petitions without the requisite delegation by Congress," U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin said in a 42-page decision.

While the president is able to restrict noncitizen entry into the United States, Congress has the power to tax, and federal law does not delegate it, the judge said.

He also ruled that the fee violated a law called the Administrative Procedure Act because it was issued without allowing the public to comment before it took effect, and ordered officials to vacate the policy in its entirety.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The ruling came in response to a lawsuit filed by Massachusetts and 19 other states. They challenged the fee, which Trump announced in September as a way to reduce taxes and bring better people into the country.

A different judge in late 2025 had upheld the fee, finding that Trump had the authority to increase the fee from between $2,000 to $5,000 to the $100,000 level. An appeal is pending in that case.

This is a developing story that will be updated.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 15:20

UBS Warns America's Restaurants Locked In "Difficult Cycle" As Tax-Refund Sugar-High Fades

UBS Warns America's Restaurants Locked In "Difficult Cycle" As Tax-Refund Sugar-High Fades

There is certainly a growing consensus on Wall Street that the tax-refund sugar high is fading just as consumers' financial profiles deteriorate. The latest read-through comes from UBS analyst Dennis Geiger, the bank's U.S. restaurants equity research analyst, who warns that a toxic cocktail of macro pressures is likely to crimp restaurant spending in the second half of the year.

Geiger warned in a note that elevated gas prices at the pump appear to be offsetting tax-rebate benefits, while lower-income, younger, and Hispanic consumers remain among some of the weakest demand cohorts.

"Challenged traffic and sales trends likely largely reflect depressed consumer sentiment across several cohorts, elevated gas prices, and other macro headwinds," the analyst said, adding, "We are more cautious on restaurant industry trends into 2H26, assuming near-term headwinds persist, rebate check benefits fade, and risk that gas prices stay elevated."

He said that margin pressure will likely persist for restaurants through summer and into fall as commodity inflation remains a problem.

Despite the negative backdrop, he pointed out valuations for restaurant stocks look attractive:

Despite challenged fundamentals, negative investor sentiment, and valuation pressure, we believe restaurants are in a difficult cycle currently, rather than a longer-term structurally challenged position. Valuations appear attractive relative to history, but with shares likely needing a positive inflection in sales / demand trajectory or favorable macro developments / headlines to realize notable upside.

His top picks are Dutch Bros, Brinker International, and Yum! Brands, while his least favorite restaurant stocks are Cheesecake Factory and Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.

Geiger's chartpack visualizing restaurant trends:

Sales Trends 

QSR Sales and Traffic Trends

Casual Dining Trends

Dismal Consumer Sentiment still a Problem 

The full chart pack can be viewed by Professional subscribers here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Geiger's caution for the restaurant industry adds to our theme of emerging consumer stress (read the latest here).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 15:00

6.4 Magnitude Quake Rocks Western Cuba, Sends Tremors Into South Florida

6.4 Magnitude Quake Rocks Western Cuba, Sends Tremors Into South Florida

The USGS reported that a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck just off the coast of Cuba around 2 p.m. ET, with residents across parts of Florida reporting feeling the shaking.

The offshore quake was detected near Pinar del Río, located in western Cuba. Initial reports did not indicate major damage or a tsunami threat.

NWS Miami reported "shaking across Southwestern Florida within the past 30 minutes."

*Developing...

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 14:46

DOJ Asks Courts To Strip 17 Criminals Of US Citizenship

DOJ Asks Courts To Strip 17 Criminals Of US Citizenship

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Monday announced it has asked courts across the country to strip more than a dozen people who have pleaded guilty or been convicted of crimes of their U.S. citizenship.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche speaks during a press conference in Washington on April 27, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Filings in federal court requested judges revoke the naturalization of 17 individuals, including Jean Claude Alfred, a 68-year-old Haitian native who became a U.S. citizen in 1994.

Federal officials said that Alfred, who does not have a lawyer listed on the court docket, was convicted in 1996 of attempting sexual battery and indecent assault on his daughter, for conduct that began three years prior.

Alfred "concealed his crime throughout the naturalization process," DOJ lawyers told the federal court in Miami.

Another man, 39-year-old Armando Mendoza of Mexico, received sexually explicit images of minors as early as 2009 and pleaded guilty in 2013. Mendoza failed to disclose the crime in his 2011 citizenship application and interview, which means his citizenship should be revoked, officials said in a separate filing in federal court in California.

Mendoza has not hired an attorney, according to the court docket.

"When criminal aliens exploit the naturalization process by breaking the law, there are consequences," acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a statement. "Criminal aliens are lying about their past crimes, including drug dealers, sexual predators, and fraudsters."

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin added that "American citizenship is a privilege, and it must be earned honestly."

He said, "If you come here break our laws, and lie in your immigration proceedings, you forfeit that privilege."

Developing...

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 14:40

Pentagon Names Alibaba, Baidu, And BYD In Updated Chinese Military Companies List As DoD Contracting Bans Loom

Pentagon Names Alibaba, Baidu, And BYD In Updated Chinese Military Companies List As DoD Contracting Bans Loom

The Department of Defense has filed a major update to its official list of "Chinese military companies" operating in the United States, formally naming or reaffirming high-profile firms including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, BGI Group, and Autel as companies linked to Beijing's military-civil fusion strategy.

The notice, filed on Monday and scheduled for Federal Register publication on June 10, comes just weeks before new restrictions on Department of Defense contracting with listed entities take effect on June 30. The companies are alleged to have ownership or ties to SASAC (State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission), affiliations with MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), PLA connections, support from China's "Little Giant" industrial program, or a presence in military-civil fusion zones.

Section 1260H requires the Pentagon to identify Chinese companies that conduct commercial business while also supporting or being affiliated with the People's Liberation Army or China's defense-industrial base. The list has existed for years, but the consequences are now becoming more significant. Effective June 30, the DoD will be barred from entering into, renewing, or extending contracts directly with listed companies or entities they control. A broader indirect ban - covering goods or services that incorporate products from these firms - follows in June 2027. Additional rules restrict DoD contractors from working with entities that lobby on behalf of listed companies.

In short, the Pentagon is putting major Chinese companies on notice that it views them as potential extensions of China's military and defense ecosystem, even if those companies are better known globally for consumer products, cloud services, electric vehicles, drones, or biotech.

Key Companies Designated

Several globally significant names stand out in the update:

  • Alibaba Group Holding Limited: Indirectly affiliated with SASAC and flagged as a military-civil fusion contributor due to its MIIT ties. The company's dominance in e-commerce, cloud computing, and AI raises long-standing dual-use technology concerns.
  • Baidu, Inc.: Similarly linked to SASAC and cited for MIIT affiliation, reflecting U.S. concerns about its AI, search, and autonomous systems capabilities.
  • BYD Company Limited: Directly and indirectly tied to SASAC and MIIT. The world's largest electric vehicle maker is highlighted for its critical role in batteries and EVs - sectors with clear strategic and potential military applications.
  • BGI Group (including BGI Genomics and other subsidiaries): Noted for direct PLA affiliation and MIIT ties, along with government assistance tied to military planning objectives. The genomics firm has previously drawn scrutiny over data security and collection practices.
  • Autel entities (Autel Intelligent Technology and Autel Robotics): Designated for "Little Giant" status and MIIT connections, underscoring concerns around commercial drones and robotics with obvious military uses.

The broader list includes many other major players, including SMIC and memory chip firms (CXMT, YMTC), COMAC and AVIC aerospace entities, CATL and EVE Energy batteries, Huawei-related companies, DJI, Hikvision, Tencent, SenseTime, and various shipping and construction conglomerates. Some firms appear with extensive U.S. or international subsidiaries.

A handful of entities were removed from the previous January 2025 list, including certain CNOOC and COSCO subsidiaries.

Broader Context and Stakes

This update marks the latest step in years of escalating U.S. policy toward China's military-civil fusion strategy. Earlier Pentagon assessments and a February 2026 draft notice had already previewed many of these additions before being withdrawn. The move also fits into a wider U.S. effort that includes Entity List expansions, investment restrictions, export controls, and legislative pushes targeting Chinese biotech and technology supply chains.

Geopolitically, the list reflects Washington's view that key commercial sectors - AI, semiconductors, EVs and batteries, biotech/genomics, drones, and cloud infrastructure - cannot be cleanly separated from China's national security apparatus. It arrives amid intensifying competition over critical technologies and broader strategic tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Listed entities can request reconsideration by submitting evidence to a designated Pentagon email address.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 14:00

Trump Admin Provided No Defensive Action For Israel Amid Iranian Missile Salvo

Trump Admin Provided No Defensive Action For Israel Amid Iranian Missile Salvo

We've been documenting the apparent immense strain in the US-Israel relationship related to Iran policy and strategy. In this latest round of trading major blows, President Trump reportedly not only told Israel to immediately halt its response and to not retaliate, but gave no order for US forces to protect Israel, for example by manning and operating crucial anti-air defenses.

While Iranian ballistic missiles were inbound, "The US military didn't take part in the Israeli attacks against Iran, the first since the ceasefire, and the Trump admin didn't order any US defensive action to shield Israel from incoming Iranian missiles, per a US official" - according to CBS White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs.

If accurate, this marks a major change in US priorities and the Pentagon's posture in the region. Going back to last year's 11-day June war, as well as from the start of Operation Epic Fury, Washington has previously provided consistent cover and protection for Israel, especially on the anti-air defense front.

Source: picture alliance/CFOTO

The notable change and shift is also being reported by NBC, which writes Monday morning, "The U.S. military did not conduct any strikes against Iran with Israel, according to a U.S. official."

"The U.S. did not shoot down or intercept any incoming Iranian missiles or projectiles during this recent volley between Israel and Iran," the report continues. "And the current U.S. assessment is that Iran was not targeting any U.S. personnel, assets, or locations during the strikes directed at Israel, the official said."

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has however, affirmed it has been in contact with senior Israeli military officials, presumably to receive updates and briefings on the Iranian attacks of the prior 24 hours, as well as related to the latest on Israeli offensive actions.

While Washington is creating distance between itself and this renewed round of fighting, Iranian officials aren't buying the narrative.

In a fresh message from Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, Tehran says that "Without a doubt ... the actions of the Zionist regime in the region cannot be separated from U.S. policies." Tehran is rejecting the US insistence that it is not behind Israel's actions: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States," Baqaei added.

Meanwhile, President Trump declared in a Financial Times interview published on Sunday - "I call the shots" regarding actions against Iran, and not Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "won't have any choice" but to accept an impending agreement between the US and Iran, Trump stated.

Mark Levin rages over lack of US defense for Israel:

At the same time, a US official told Axios on Sunday that Trump was "pretty adamant that we are close to a deal with Iran," urging space to give diplomacy a chance.

Though Israel ultimately went ahead with a strike on Iranian territory following Sunday's missile barrage, the situation is showing signs of a temporary pause on Monday. Iran's military announced it had halted its operations, claiming it had successfully sent its intended message, even as Trump continued to publicly insist that both nations are actively looking to agree on an "immediate CEASEFIRE" (on Truth Social).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 13:40

Netanyahu Confirms Israel 'Holding Fire, For Now' - Rejects Iran Red Line To Not Attack Lebanon

Netanyahu Confirms Israel 'Holding Fire, For Now' - Rejects Iran Red Line To Not Attack Lebanon Summary
  • Israel has rejected Iran's warning not to attack Lebanon, though aerial operations appear paused.
  • Israeli officials say strikes on Iran being halted at President Trump's request to 'stop shooting'. Netanyahu confirms attacks halted 'for now'.
  • Iran FM accuses US of cooperating with Washington: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States" (Foreign Ministry spox).
  • Iran's sprawling Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex bombed by Israeli Air Force.
  • Houthis seek to close/threaten Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for Israeli-linked passage: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea.
//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 17% · No 84%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Israel Rejects Iran Attempt to Assert Red Line on Not Attacking Lebanon

The Lebanon crisis remains a tug-of-war flashpoint between Tehran and Tel Aviv. The Iranians want to force a situation where any broader peace deal with the US is linked directly to achieving permanent truce in Lebanon. However, the US and Israel have consistently sought to thwart these attempts. According to Bloomberg:

Israel will strike Hezbollah in Beirut in retaliation for any further cross-border attacks by the Iranian-backed Lebanese faction, Israel’s defense minister says in a statement, rejecting a threat by Tehran to resume missile salvos in solidarity with Lebanon.

“Any Iranian attempt to link Lebanon to Iran in attacking Israel will be met with a forcible response, as happened yesterday,” Defense Minister Israel Katz says, referring to an air strike in the Lebanese capital which prompted Iranian missile fire against Israeli targets. If Hezbollah attacks Israel’s northern communities “it will lead to an attack on the Dahieh,” he says, referring to a Beirut suburb where support for Hezbollah is strong.

Still, Israel has by late Monday (local) made clear it is halting attacks on Iran and Lebanon 'for now' after President Trump called for immediate restraint.

Israel Halts Iran Attacks 'For Now'

"After Iran attacked Israel, I instructed the IDF to strike military and economic targets throughout Iran," Netanyahu said in a fresh Monday statement. "For now, the fire has been contained, because after we struck the terrorist regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. If the terrorist regime in Iran makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will respond with force." The key lines from Netanyahu:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel had stopped its attacks on both Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, after the Iranian military announced it was halting operations.

In a brief statement Monday, Netanyahu said "Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever - but our struggle with them is not over yet."

Having bombarded both adversaries, he added, "right now, the fire has been halted."

Iran's military headquarters responds: "Should aggression and hostile actions continue—including in southern Lebanon—far more severe and forceful measures than before will follow," it said, according to Iranian state media.

And in a clear sign of the exchange of strikes having ceased:

Iran says flight restrictions have been lifted with airspace returning to normal conditions: state media

Israel Pauses Iran Strikes At Trump's Request

Israel's N12 News is reporting that Israel is halting strike on Iran at President Trump's request. There are widespread initial reports that Israeli forces are indeed pausing the attacks, which persisted overnight through Monday morning, and included attack on a major petrochemical complex. However, the latest Israeli messaging has included a warning on the Lebanon front, per Bloomberg:

Senior Israeli official says Israel is stopping strikes in Iran at Donald Trump’s request, but confirms operations in southern Lebanon will continue at full intensity in the coming days. The official also warns that Dahieh in Beirut could be targeted if attacks on Israeli settlements and civilians continue.

There are also emerging reports (via CBS) that Trump did not order any US defensive efforts to protect Israel from the latest Iranian ballistic missile attacks - which were the first against Israel since the early April ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in a fresh message from Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran says "Without a doubt ... the actions of the Zionist regime in the region cannot be separated from U.S. policies." Tehran is rejecting the attempts of the Trump administration to distance the US from Israeli actions: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States," Baqaei added.

Trump: 'Stop Shooting'

A big question remains is if this flare-up in major fighting, which has featured the first direct attacks between Iran and Israel since the April ceasefire took effect, will be short-lived or whether it will endure and escalate into sustained war.

So far the situation is showing signs it could be short-lived, after early Monday morning President Trump urged Israel and Iran to immediately stop "shooting" in a Truth Social post. He also expressed that this musts be done "quickly" and is still talking up a "final" peace deal - which at this moment looks as distant as ever. Iran is signaling it is ready to get back to ceasefire, but Israel is again threatening the Beirut suburbs.

Here's what Trump wrote in a couple of brief Monday posts:

Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” ...and:

Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Big Round of Israeli Retaliation Airstrikes on Iran

Videos of Israel's further daytime attacks on sites across Iran have emerged, after Iran sent ballistic missile waves on Israel on Sunday, in response for the IDF renewing airstrikes on Beirut.

For now, Tehran is claiming the current round is over, with Iran's armed forces having announced the end of military operations against Israel while warning of "harsher" attacks if Israel resumes strikes on Lebanon, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters spelled out the Islamic Republic's latest justification: "Following the aggressions and acts of mischief by the brutal Zionist regime in southern Lebanon and the Dahieh area, carried out with the support of criminal America, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon, delivered a painful response to this regime." And there's a new message from Iranian President Pezeshkian, saying:

"Diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power; we have neither left the field nor the negotiating table... We will defend the rights of the nation with authority and will not retreat in the face of any threat."

Massive Iranian Petrochemical Complex Hit

Israel, however, made sure to leave a massive mark before any cooling off. The Israeli military confirmed it attacked Iran's sprawling Mahshahr petrochemical complex on Monday, marking its first strike on the critical asset since the April 7 ceasefire agreement.

The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, as it is formally known, is widely seen as one of the crown jewels of Iran's energy sector. Tucked near the southern city of Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini - a vital industrial port on the Persian Gulf - the sprawling complex consists of more than 50 separate petrochemical plants producing roughly 72 million tons of products annually, according to Iran’s oil ministry.

Iranian state media reported that one specific installation, the Karun petrochemical plant, was hit twice Monday morning. While a local official told Fars that no casualties were reported, the facility sustained notable structural damage.

IRGC: 'Dangerous Game'

The response from Iran's elite military branch was immediate and ominous. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps condemned the precise strike as a "dangerous game" - openly threatening to expand the scope of how it retaliates against Israel, explicitly noting that future targets will include energy-related sites.

Israel already compiled a visual strike map showing targets it hit in Iran overnight into Monday:

With both sides testing the absolute limits of the April truce, the macro risk to regional energy infrastructure has officially rocketed back to the forefront, as Trump desperately tries - or is at least appearing to - walk the two sides back from the ledge.

Vital Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (Red Sea) Under Threat: Houthis Declare "Total Ban" On Israeli Ships

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target:

"First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued."

The statement continued, "Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance."

The announcement is similar to the Houthis' late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war. Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

More Headlines/Latest Developments

via Newsquawk...

WEEKEND MIDDLE EAST RECAP

  • Israel conducted airstrikes on a couple of apartment buildings in Beirut’s Dahiya district on Sunday, in what the military described as targeting a Hezbollah command centre.
  • Iran launched four waves of strikes against Israel on Sunday evening in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut, which it stated ‘crossed all red lines’, while it threatened devastating blows if Israel expands Lebanon operations. Iran signalled a halt to attacks if Israel refrains from strikes, but vowed stronger retaliation if Israel strikes back, and it closed its western airspace until further notice.
  • IRGC said that the Ramat David Airbase was hit by ballistic missiles and that future attacks are to target US-Israel regional assets, while Tehran Times noted reports of missiles being fired at a US airbase in Jordan.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu was reported to be holding security consultations following the latest developments, while the Israeli military said the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted, although Iran claimed a successful strike on northern Israel.
  • US President Trump said he was supposed to announce that a deal with Iran would be signed this week, and now this is happening, while he called for Iran to end the missile fire and return to talks. Trump also stated that he was not happy about Israel striking Beirut and that Israel’s attacks were not coordinated with the US. Furthermore, Trump said he would call Israeli PM Netanyahu to tell him not to attack Iran in response, and noted that they are close to a final deal, which he doesn’t want to blow up.
  • US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance sites on Saturday after shooting down drones launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. US military said that Iran had fired missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, while drones were also fired towards 4 commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran Supreme Leader’s military adviser Rezaei said Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday serves as a warning to Israel to cease strikes on Beirut, while he warned of a further response to aggression.

EUROPEAN MORNING IRAN CONFLICT UPDATES

  • US President Trump posted "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting."
  • US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran because he calls the shots. Trump stated that Iran's strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations and he thinks the deal is going on, but we will see what happens, and he would consider a commando raid on Iran if a deal failed, according to FT.
  • US told Israel to hold off for a few days to allow space for a deal, with a joint action plan to proceed if talks fail. It was separately reported by Tasnim, citing Israel's Channel 12, that Israeli PM Netanyahu tried to object to US President Trump's request not to react to Iran during a phone call, but in the end accepted it.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Washington is responsible for the current situation because it is a party to the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire has been continuously and repeatedly violated by the opposing sides. Action is to be taken whenever deemed necessary to defend the country's interests. On the ceasefire agreement, the spokesperson said that ending the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement, and when this clause is violated, the diplomatic track is also affected. Furthermore, he said the message exchange is ongoing with the US and Pakistan's Interior Minister visited Tehran to push negotiations. Lastly, he said they are not talking about the issues of enriched uranium or enrichment at this stage.
  • Iran's IRGC said that by taking action against civilian targets and targeting oil industries, Israel has targeted a dangerous game which will encompass all energy targets in the region and consequences for the global economy belong to the US. Iran's IRGC further said that we are ready to carry out operations on all fronts, and our response has been planned based on various enemy scenarios.
  • An Iranian source said that "Iran is prepared for a long-term war... The coming days will show that the calculations of the Israelis and Americans are always wrong", Tasnim reported.
  • Iranian Supreme Leader senior adviser said on Sunday that Tehran threatened to block the Bab-al Mandab if Israel escalates its attack, according to CNN citing IRIB.
  • Yemen's Houthis announce a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for a missile attack in Israel and said banning navigation to the enemy is a preliminary step and the group is prepared for additional steps against any escalation.
  • Israeli projectile hit an Iranian petrochemical plant, with the Karun petrochemical plant damaged in Khuzestan province.
  • Israel's army expects the exchange of strikes with Iran to continue for several days, Al Hadath reported.
  • Israeli Minister Smotrich is expected to propose at the next Security Cabinet meeting that Israel should respond to every Iranian missile launched at Israel by striking 20-30 buildings in Beirut's Dehaya district, journalist Stein reported.
  • Israeli military said the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in western and central Iran.
  • Throughout Monday in Iran, there have been reports of loud explosions in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah and Karaj, while explosions were reportedly heard in southern Lebanon. Additionally, there were some arab sources reporting explosions at the Prince Sultan Air Base in central Saudi Arabia, however involvement was denied by Iran.
  • Drone attack reported from Yemen towards Israeli targets, according to Tasnim.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 13:25

India Rescues 24 Crewmembers From Stricken Tanker Off Oman After US Airstrike

India Rescues 24 Crewmembers From Stricken Tanker Off Oman After US Airstrike

Update(1315ET): US Navy forces have announced a new Monday direction action operation in the Gulf of Oman. The US has cited that the vessel refused to respond to orders related to the blockade of Iranian naval ports.

The ship attempted to sail to an Iranian port, in violation of the ongoing blockade. A CENTCOM statement indicated that the military "disabled Palau-flagged M/T Marivex as it transited international waters in the Gulf of Oman toward Iran."

"An F/A-18 Super Hornet from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) fired a precision munition into the ship's engineering and steering spaces after the crew failed to comply with directions from U.S. forces," the statement continued. "Marivex is no longer sailing to Iran," it said. The Pentagon has also reviewed the following since initiating the blockade on April 13.

  • CENTCOM forces have disabled seven non-compliant vessels
  • it has redirected 134 ships that complied
  • allowed 42 vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass

This is the same vessel which took on US military fire:

Indian navy helicopters airlifted 24 sailors off a tanker on fire off the coast of Oman on Monday, New Delhi officials said, without saying what caused the blaze.

India’s Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways said a fire was reported at around 1:30 p.m. (0800 GMT) on the MT Marivex, a Palau-flagged tanker.

“There has been a fire reported on a vessel, MT Marivex, on which there were 24 Indian seafarers... all Indian seafarers are safe,” ministry director Opesh Kumar Sharma told reporters.

And more from the same report:

Images posted on social media by the Forward Seamen’s Union of India showed crew members being winched from the vessel by helicopter as thick black smoke billowed from its bridge and accommodation cabins.

The tanker’s position was shown by ship-tracking service MarineTraffic as being off the coast of Oman, south of the capital Muscat.

*  *  *

Brent crude futures jumped as much as 5% to $97.83 a barrel, while WTI traded around $95 a barrel, as renewed Iran-Israel fighting threatened to unravel a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and further disrupt energy flows.

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target.

"First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued," the terror group said Monday in a statement.

The statement continued, "Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance."

"Third: We affirm the right of our people and the peoples of our free nation to confront American-Israeli aggression, and that we will not stand idly by in the face of the unjust siege imposed on our people and the peoples of the axis of Jihad and Resistance in Palestine, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. All enemy attempts will fail, God willing, and our operations will continue as long as the aggression and siege against us and the axis of Jihad and Resistance continue," the statement concluded.

The announcement is similar to the Houthis' late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war.

Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

The previous disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait led to ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time, fuel, insurance costs, and higher shipping costs. The IMF has previously said that the Red Sea attacks halved Suez Canal trade in early 2024, while shipping traffic via the Cape of Good Hope surged.

Related:

Readers were brefied in mid-April on the threat other critical straits could be disrupted. Read the note here

The big risk here is a simultaneous disruption of both maritime chokepoints. Bab-el-Mandeb would hit the world's trade artery, while Hormuz has already disrupted the world's energy artery. Combined, the clogging of both maritime chokepoints would be viewed as a major escalation, likely raising the risk of additional supply chain stress, higher freight and insurance costs, and another inflationary wave.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 13:15

Trump Weighs Plan To Buy Chagos Islands, Home To Diego Garcia Military Base

Trump Weighs Plan To Buy Chagos Islands, Home To Diego Garcia Military Base

The White House is actively considering a plan to purchase the Chagos Islands, potentially undermining the UK's agreement to transfer sovereignty of the strategically vital territory to Mauritius, according to reports.

An undated photograph shows an aerial view of Diego Garcia. U.S. Navy via AP

US officials have prepared proposals to bypass Britain and negotiate directly for control of Diego Garcia, the key Indian Ocean atoll that hosts a major joint US-UK military base. The idea forms part of broader options being developed by the Trump administration as alternatives to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's plan to cede the islands to Mauritius, which has close ties to China and Iran.

Strategic Importance

Diego Garcia's location makes it critical for long-range operations. It enables round-the-clock bomber missions, including potential strikes on Iran using B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, and places key areas within striking range. Amid ongoing conflicts involving Iran and China's expanding naval presence, US and UK officials stress the need to maintain a robust chain of global military bases.

Senior Trump administration officials worry that transferring control to Mauritius could expose the base to espionage or interference. One former adviser to UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Ben Judah, told the Telegraph that the base has "super secret, super sensitive facilities" that are vital to British and allied capabilities, noting they would be difficult to replicate elsewhere.

Background on the UK-Mauritius Deal

The UK had agreed to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while securing a long-term lease for the military base, reportedly involving around £35 billion ($46.7 billion) over 99 years. However, the deal requires US consent due to longstanding agreements governing the base, and Britain has since placed it on hold.

President Trump initially appeared open to the arrangement but later strongly opposed it, particularly after the UK reportedly declined to allow strikes on Iran from Diego Garcia in the early stages of the Iran war. He publicly denounced the deal as "great stupidity" and criticized Starmer for weakening the special relationship, calling him "no Winston Churchill."

US Position and Ongoing Talks

A US official told Reuters:

"President Trump has been consistent in his position that the United Kingdom should not give away the British Indian Ocean Territory, which includes our joint U.S.-UK military facility on the Diego Garcia atoll. Diego Garcia's strategic location in the Indian Ocean makes it a vital and indispensable military installation of significant importance to the national security of the United States."

The US continues regular discussions with Britain to preserve the base's viability.

Purchasing the islands outright would likely involve waiting for the UK-Mauritius sovereignty transfer before negotiating with Mauritius. No specific price has been discussed, according to sources.

In February, Trump said that he had retained the right to "militarily secure" the Diego Garcia air base after calling the UK's decision an "act of total weakness."

UK Response

A UK government spokesperson defended the original agreement, stating it was necessary to protect long-term interests and prevent adversaries from gaining a foothold:

"Diego Garcia is a key strategic military asset for both the UK and the US, which has protected our shared security for nearly 60 years. Maintaining long-term operational control and security of Diego Garcia is the entire basis for the UK-Mauritius agreement."

In May, UK minister Hamish Falconer stated there was "no scenario" in which Washington could purchase the islands, reaffirming commitment to the deal. Downing Street has not commented on the latest US proposals.

People protest outside the High Court where Chagossian campaigners are challenging the British government's deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, in London, Britain, October 28, 2025. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 13:00

Flying Car Industry Turns To Solid-State Batteries For Commercial Takeoff

Flying Car Industry Turns To Solid-State Batteries For Commercial Takeoff

Authored by Bojan Stojkovski via Interesting Engineering,

Solid-state battery advances could accelerate flying car adoption. GAC

As the flying car industry moves from prototype development toward commercial deployment, attention is increasingly shifting to the technologies needed to support safe and scalable operations.

Su Qingpeng, founder and CEO of GAC Govy, a low-altitude mobility company incubated by GAC, recently described solid-state batteries as the "essential path" for the future of flying cars, highlighting their potential to deliver the energy density and safety required for aerial mobility.

At the same time, investor expectations are evolving. Rather than focusing primarily on technical specifications and performance claims, capital markets are placing greater emphasis on practical indicators of commercial success, including vehicle deliveries, profitability, production readiness, and the timeline for obtaining airworthiness certification.

Flying Cars Follow a Path Similar to Early EVs

Su compared the current stage of the flying car industry to the position electric vehicles occupied roughly a decade ago, when the market was still transitioning from early adoption to large-scale growth. He argued that aviation mobility could advance even more rapidly than the EV sector once adoption reaches a critical threshold.

According to his outlook, the industry is expected to establish a sustainable commercial ecosystem by 2030, supported by technological progress, regulatory approvals, and the gradual rollout of low-altitude transportation services, CarNewsChina reported.

After entering the market with its first production model, GAC Govy has been advancing toward regulatory approval and commercial deployment. Its flagship aircraft, the Govy AirCab, opened for pre-orders in 2025 and officially entered production in May 2026.

The Chinese company aims to complete airworthiness testing and secure Type Certification (TC) by the end of 2026, while Production Certification (PC) is targeted for the first half of 2027, paving the way for larger-scale manufacturing and commercial operations.

Safer, Longer-Range Flying Cars Depend on Solid-State Batteries

In the long run, battery technology is emerging as one of the most important factors shaping the future of aerial mobility. Su noted that solid-state batteries will play a central role in enabling the next generation of flying cars by delivering both the energy density required for longer flight ranges and the safety standards needed for commercial operations.

Furthermore, the business case for solid-state batteries is markedly different in aviation than in the automotive sector. Whereas carmakers are pursuing the technology largely to lower costs and improve competitiveness in high-volume markets, flying car manufacturers can absorb significantly higher battery costs due to the economics of aircraft production. Su noted that conventional aircraft are far more expensive to build than automobiles, giving eVTOL developers greater flexibility to adopt advanced battery technologies.

As a result, solid-state batteries can already be deployed in limited production runs for aerial vehicles. Over time, broader adoption across the automotive industry is expected to drive down battery costs, making flying cars more economical to operate and opening the door to wider commercial use.

However, Su also warned that flying car production is likely to scale more slowly than traditional automobiles. Extensive design iterations, airworthiness certification, and manufacturing validation requirements make the path to mass production longer and more complex, resulting in a gradual ramp-up in deliveries.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 12:40

US Bankruptcy Filings Surge 7% YoY In May

US Bankruptcy Filings Surge 7% YoY In May

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Total U.S. bankruptcy filings, which include filings made by both businesses and individuals, rose by 7 percent in May on a year-to-year basis.

A hiring sign at the Fashion Centre at Pentagon City shopping mall in Arlington, Va., on Jan 3, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Individual bankruptcy filings rose by 8 percent during the one-year period. While overall commercial filings were down marginally by 0.1 percent, bankruptcy filings made by small businesses jumped 36 percent, according to a June 5 statement from the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).

"The May data reflects a continued but measured uptick in bankruptcy activity, particularly among small businesses," said Michael Hunter, vice president of Epiq AACER, the company that provided the bankruptcy data.

"The trend highlights the cumulative impact of elevated interest rates, persistent inflation, and higher operating costs. As access to affordable credit remains constrained, more businesses and consumers are turning to restructuring tools to stabilize and reset financially."

The 12-month inflation rate has consistently remained above the 2 percent level over the past few years. In recent months, the rate has shot up since the Iran conflict after remaining subdued for some time.

In February, the inflation rate was 2.4 percent, which surged to 3.3 percent in March and 3.8 percent in April, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Higher prices pose a challenge to business activities and consumer spending.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate has remained elevated at 3.5 to 3.75 percent in recent months, with the central bank refusing to cut rates further. This contributes to keeping loan rates high, making credit expensive for businesses and individuals.

In May, commercial chapter 11 filings fell 7 percent from last year, ABI said in its latest statement. A Chapter 11 bankruptcy seeks to reorganize a company's debts, aiming to keep the business operational and, eventually, turn it solvent. This is the most common type of bankruptcy filing made by businesses.

The May decline in such filings bucks the persistent increase in such cases since the beginning of the year. In April, Chapter 11 filings rose 42 percent from a year ago. And during the first quarter of 2026, these filings rose 37 percent year over year.

Among companies that filed for bankruptcy last month is specialty material solutions provider Trinseo PLC. On May 26, the company announced it would commence Chapter 11 filings as part of a restructuring plan. The company said it expects the plan to cut down its debt by roughly $2 billion.

Earlier on May 6, pet food ingredient company Integrated Proteins, LLC, filed a voluntary petition for bankruptcy, citing estimated assets of $50 million to $100 million and liabilities of $100 million to $500 million.

US Business Situation

In a May 14 report, S&P Global warned that the trajectory of bankruptcy filings could increase over the coming months, citing "inflationary pressures, elevated fuel prices and other macroeconomic uncertainties, largely related to the Middle East war."

Andrew Glenn, managing partner at Glenn Agre Bergman & Fuentes, said the existing macroeconomic factors have "still not resulted in the next wave of big filings." The current period is the "calm before the storm" ahead of a potential barrage of commercial bankruptcy filings.

Meanwhile, sentiment among small business owners remains positive, with optimism in this group rising marginally in April, the National Federation of Independent Business said in a May 12 statement.

Financial services company ShareBuilder 401k said in a May 11 statement that, while owners are weighed down by inflation and labor shortages, they are adopting new strategies to grow their businesses.

A survey from the ShareBuilder 401k showed that 88 percent of owners took "decisive action" to counter inflation and labor challenges over the past year.

"Half of all small businesses (50 percent) have increased prices to protect margins, while others have turned to lower-cost vendors (23 percent)," the company said.

According to a June 3 report from S&P Global, four out of seven U.S. sectors reported an upturn in their business activity in May - healthcare, consumer goods, basic materials, and industrials. Financials, tech, and consumer services sectors registered declines.

On the employment front, the U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, exceeding economists' expectations. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.3 percent. However, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high for the week ending May 30.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones, which opened at around 49,832 on May 1, closed at about 51,032 on May 29, a jump of roughly 1,200 points.

The Trump administration has taken actions to help businesses acquire credit.

In March, the Small Business Administration (SBA) announced that small manufacturers will be eligible to secure loans with a 90 percent federal guarantee. This is expected to help such businesses get access to "long-term, affordable financing."

Last month, SBA announced that it will allow eligible borrowers to get up to $10 million in combined financing from 7(a) and 504 loan programs for businesses, double the earlier limit of $5 million.

"By decoupling 7(a) loan balances from the 504 program, the SBA is giving capital-intensive small businesses - including those in construction, logistics, energy, food production, and related industries - greater flexibility to pair long-term financing for real estate and equipment with working capital to support operations and expansion," the agency said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 12:00

Wix Tumbles After Cutting 20% Of Workforce, Warns Of Deeper Growth Slowdown

Wix Tumbles After Cutting 20% Of Workforce, Warns Of Deeper Growth Slowdown

Website builder Wix announced an "organizational realignment" on Monday that will cut roughly 20% of its workforce, as the company warned of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in its Partners business.

The restructuring is designed to streamline operations, discontinue lower-priority initiatives, and reallocate resources toward Wix's core growth areas.

"The organizational realignment to streamline operations and reallocate resources to support the Company's top strategic priorities. This includes the scaling down and/or discontinuation of certain activities, initiatives, products, and subsidiaries," Wix wrote in a Form 6k filing earlier this morning.

As of 1Q26, Wix had 5,277 employees, so a 20% cut would represent about 1,055 layoffs.

Wix is a SaaS website builder that competes with platforms such as Shopify, Squarespace, GoDaddy, and WordPress-related services. There was no mention of whether AI-related efficiencies contributed to the white-collar layoffs.

The 6k filing noted that it expects 2026 free cash flow, excluding acquisition and restructuring costs, of about $420 million, roughly $20 million above its prior plan. This restructuring is a move to support profitability.

"While Wix Harmony and Base44 continue to perform as we expected when we issued guidance as part of the first quarter 2026 earnings release, the Company expects an approximately $50 million reduction in bookings and an approximately $25 million reduction in revenue in FY 2026 as a result of our organizational realignment as well as a more pronounced slowdown, beyond our previous expectations, in the growth of our Partners business during the second half of May and early June," the filing stated.

The company lowered its 2026 bookings growth outlook to the low-teens range from mid-teens, while revenue growth is now expected in the low- to mid-teens range, also down from mid-teens.

Cost savings from the labor restructuring are expected to offset the revenue hit. Wix sees about $70 million in incremental non-GAAP cost-of-revenue and operating-expense savings this year, with a full-year run-rate savings target of about $150 million, driven mainly by lower payroll and overhead.

Wix expects $30 million to $35 million in pre-tax restructuring charges, mostly related to cash severance and benefits, with most charges booked in the second quarter and cash payments made later this year.

Shares of Wix tumbled 10% in premarket trading. The stock is trading near 2017 lows.

Most Wall Street analysts are bullish on the stock. There are 12 "Buy" ratings, 8 "Neutral" ratings, and 1 "Sell."

The average 12-month price target for the stock is $84 per share.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 11:45

Inflation Expectations Dip, Driven By Lower Gas Prices, While Labor Market Prospects Worsen: NY Fed Survey

Inflation Expectations Dip, Driven By Lower Gas Prices, While Labor Market Prospects Worsen: NY Fed Survey

Ahead of Wednesday's CPI report which is expected to show a substantial rise in consumer prices, moments ago we got an early look into how consumers view inflation after the NY Fed's latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reported that inflation expectations at the one-year horizon dipped to 3.46% in May from 3.64% in April, easing from the highest print since September 2023. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.1% for the three-year-ahead horizon and also unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in May.

Median inflation uncertainty, or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes, increased at the one-year and three-year-ahead horizons and decreased at the five-year-ahead horizon. 

The drop in year-ahead expectations took place as 1-year gas inflation expectations extended its recent decline, sliding to 4.96% in May from 5.11% in April and from 9.42% in March, which had been the highest reading since March 2022.

Among other prices, home price growth expectations increased to highest since July 2022.

Food and rent price outlooks also increased while medical care and college eased (good luck).

Turning to the labor market, sentiment continued to deteriorate with job-loss fears rising and probability of quitting at a three-year high despite unemployment rate seen edging lower and expected earnings growth steady.

Respondents said the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 2.3% to 43.7%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 46.8% and marking the lowest reading since December 2025.

The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.5% to 15.1%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.4%. Despite that, the expected quit rate - the probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next year, usually a sign of confidence in the labor market - rose in May to the highest since February of 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education and income groups, the report said. 

The report followed an unexpectedly strong employment report for May with job gains beating expectations. For Fed officials, the report put to rest for now concerns that the US labor market remained fragile and stoked worries over inflation. Policymakers’ preferred measure of inflation hit 3.8% in April, amid a spike in energy prices.

The New York Fed survey also reinforced other reports showing consumer sentiment is at record lows: the share of households who said their financial situation was worse than last year reached its highest level since January of 2023. More consumers also expected a deterioration in their finances in the year ahead.


Household finances outlook fell to lowest since Oct. 2022, with spending growth expected to moderate amid worsening credit access and delinquencies

The perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose by 1.2% points to 12.6%, staying below its 12-month trailing average of 12.9%. This increase was mostly driven by those with at most a high school degree and with annual household incomes below $100,000. 

Here are some more details from the report:

Inflation

  • Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.5% point to 3.5%. This is the highest reading since July 2022. The increase was most pronounced for the West and Midwest Census regions. 
  • Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped by 0.1% point to 5.0%. Other commodity price change expectations increased by 0.6 percentage point for food to 5.8% and by 1.4 percentage points for rent to 7.4%, while they decreased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 8.9% and by 0.8 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 8.0%. 

Labor Market

  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained stable at 7% in May, remaining slightly above their 12-month trailing average of 2.6%. 
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%, remaining above their 12-month trailing average of 41.1%. 
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.5 percentage point to 15.1%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.4%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 2.6 percentage points to 20.8%, its highest level since February 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups. 
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 43.7%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 46.8% and marking the lowest reading since December 2025. 

Household Finance

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 2.8% in May 2026. 
  • Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 5.0%, standing slightly above their trailing 12-month average of 4.9%. The decline was driven by respondents above age 60 and those with at most a high school degree and annual household incomes less than $50,000. 
  • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago remained largely unchanged, with a greater share of households reporting that credit availability was equally easy or difficult. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with a lower share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead. 
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose by 1.2 percentage points to 12.6%, staying below its 12-month trailing average of 12.9%. This increase was mostly driven by those with at most a high school degree and with annual household incomes below $100,000. 
  • The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.1%. 
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 9.9%. 
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 24.6%. 
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situation compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation, marking the highest reading since January 2023, and a slightly smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situation also deteriorated, with an increase in the net share of households expecting a worse financial situation. The net share of households expecting a better versus worse financial situation in one year is at its lowest level since October 2022. 
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.4 percentage points to 38.0%. 

Source: NY Fed

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 11:33

We Are Being Warned That A "Godzilla El Niño" Could Absolutely Devastate Global Food Production

We Are Being Warned That A "Godzilla El Niño" Could Absolutely Devastate Global Food Production

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The waters of the Pacific Ocean are getting extremely warm, and that could provide fuel for an immensely destructive climate event that is unlike anything we have ever seen before. Even the United Nations has issued an ominous warning about the El Niño event that is in the long-term forecast, because it will have a dramatic impact on every man, woman, and child on the entire planet.

We are being told that there is more than an 80 percent chance that El Niño conditions will arrive by the end of next month due to rapidly warming equatorial waters in the Pacific. Meanwhile, an unprecedented "9,000-mile marine heatwave" has developed in the North Pacific. Many experts are concerned that the confluence of those two factors could produce a "Godzilla El Niño"...

The chance of an El Niño event emerging by July is now over 80 percent, which will likely make 2026 one of the hottest years on record. At the same time, an exceptionally large 9,000-mile marine heatwave has been forming in the North Pacific since the end of 2025. These extreme warming events are now evolving together across the Pacific. Scientists are increasingly concerned that the warm water will fuel a "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño, potentially prolonging marine heatwaves, disrupting fisheries and ecosystems, and intensifying global climate impacts well into 2027.

The "9,000-mile marine heatwave" in the North Pacific is absolutely astounding climate scientists.

At the same time, the warming in the equatorial waters where El Niño events normally develop is at a level that we haven't seen since at least 1877...

The temperature of the ocean in the equatorial waters where these El Niños form was predicted to be 3 degrees Celsius above average. Experts are saying that this is a level of heat in the Pacific Ocean that hasn't been recorded since 1877.

I have written about the "Super El Niño" that started in 1877 before.

That "Super El Niño" was one of the primary reasons why 50 million people starved during the Great Famine that stretched from 1876 to 1878...

This El Niño, they say, could rival the intense event of the late 19th century that triggered "the Great Famine" on a global scale, killing millions of people. And its scythe sliced through southern Africa.

"The 1876-78 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe, including parts of Asia, Nordeste [Northeast] Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity," a team of scientists said a decade ago in a ground-breaking paper presented at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

3 percent of the entire population of the world starved to death during those years.

Today, 3 percent of the entire population of the world would be 240,000,000 people.

In 1982 and 1983, we experienced the most severe "Super El Niño" of the 20th century...

In 1982-83, the most intense El Niño of the 20th century caused extreme weather events throughout the world, including floods in the American Pacific and in the southern United States, and droughts in north-eastern Brazil and Indonesia. It also caused a very mild winter in the mid-latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America.

That "Super El Niño" sparked a horrific famine in eastern Africa that wiped out a very large proportion of the population...

A widespread famine affected Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985. The worst famine to hit the country in a century, it affected 7.75 million people out of Ethiopia's 38-40 million and left approximately 300,000 to 1.2 million dead. 2.5 million people were internally displaced whereas 400,000 refugees left Ethiopia. Almost 200,000 children were orphaned.

Now we are being warned that the most powerful "Super El Niño" of all time could potentially be ahead of us.

We could see insanely hot temperatures all over the world this summer, and we are being told that we are likely to see severe drought conditions "in southern Africa, Australia, India, the Indochina Peninsula and Oceania"...

Easterly trade winds across the equator, meanwhile, are replaced by bursts of westerly surface winds. Those pile warm waters against the western shores of South America. That suppresses cool ocean upwelling from below, which is needed to bring nutrient-rich waters closer to the surface. That starves baitfish and means poor fish harvests for dependent countries in Central America and the Pacific coast of South America.

Drought, meanwhile, is likely in southern Africa, Australia, India, the Indochina Peninsula and Oceania. Southeast Asia, meanwhile, could see above-average rainfall and more flooding.

Here in the United States, we could see a lot less rain than normal in the Midwest, and temperatures in the heartland could be 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

In other words, it would be horrible growing weather.

Our farmers are already facing much higher diesel prices, much higher fertilizer prices, and a multi-year drought that never seems to end. Now a "Godzilla El Niño" could be on the way, and the World Meteorological Organization is telling us to brace for the worst...

The World Meteorological Organization is warning that this summer's El Nino event could be the worst yet. Compounded by fertiliser shortages, inflation and rising oil prices, these shocks threaten to push an already fragile food industry to the brink, and the impact will land squarely in consumers' shopping baskets.

Coming into this year, the number of people around the world experiencing acute food insecurity was already at the highest level ever recorded.

And now a "Godzilla El Niño" could absolutely devastate food production in many of the areas around the world that grow the four crops that account for 60 percent of all global calories...

Global food security relies heavily on a highly concentrated supply chain. Just four crops, wheat, rice, maize and soybeans, account for over 60% of global calories. While localised regional shortages are typically balanced by other markets, a global El Nino triggers teleconnections: simultaneous weather anomalies across different continents that cause correlated crop failures. And this systemic drop in supply leads to direct price increases at supermarket tills.

In this country, where do we grow most of our wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans?

Everyone knows that it is in the heartland, and the heartland of this country is about to get hit by a climate sledgehammer.

Of course, we all still have to eat, and so demand for food is not going to go down.

Since there won't be as much food produced, that means that prices are likely to spike...

Because demand for basic staples is inelastic - consumers must eat regardless of cost - even small supply deficits cause disproportionate price surges. Scenarios for this El Nino indicate price shocks of 10% to 50% across core commodities, with highly exposed crops, including rice, palm oil, sugarcane and coffee, potentially experiencing surges of 50% to 100%, or more.

In the past, price shocks struck one commodity at a time. A simultaneous, cross-category surge means consumers will be hit harder and broader than ever before.

If you think that food prices at your local supermarket are high now, just wait until you see what they are like in the future.

What will struggling American families do if basic staples that they purchase on a regular basis suddenly go up by 50 percent or more?

Of course, conditions will be much worse in many impoverished nations around the globe.

In some cases, there simply won't be nearly enough food to feed everyone.

We really are facing a nightmare scenario, and the vast majority of the global population is completely and utterly unprepared for it.

Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 11:25

Saylor's Strategy Buys The Dip As Bitcoin Nears Mining Cost Floor

Saylor's Strategy Buys The Dip As Bitcoin Nears Mining Cost Floor

A week after SELLING 32 Bitcoin - and (in part) triggering a waterfall decline in crypto - Bitcoin treasury company Strategy just BOUGHT an additional 1,550 BTC for approximately $101.3 million at an average price of $65,332 per bitcoin between June 1 and June 7, according to an 8-K filing with the SEC on Monday.

Strategy now holds a total of 845,256 BTC - worth around $53.5 billion - bought at an average price of $75,680 per bitcoin for a total cost of around $64 billion, including fees and expenses, according to the company's co-founder and executive chairman, Michael Saylor.

This means Saylor's horde represents 4% of bitcoin's 21 million supply cap.

Was Saylor's 'sale' last week designed to lower the price for this big purchase?

Bitcoin had been trading for around $73,700 before the sale announcement.

However, the news, despite increasingly being flagged by the company as a possibility in recent weeks, saw the market subsequently drop around 20% to a low of roughly $59,300 on Friday, before recovering back above the $63,000 level over the weekend.

Last week, JPMorgan analysts said Strategy's recent decision to sell 32 BTC "spooked" markets even if the sale was "symbolic and voluntary," intended to demonstrate the company's commitment and flexibility to preferred stockholders. 

As TheBlock.co reportsSaylor posted another Strategy bitcoin acquisition tracker chart on Sunday with the caption "A good time to add more dots," a commonly-understood signal that the largest corporate bitcoin holder may disclose fresh bitcoin purchases this week.

The framing this time went further than the usual nod toward another buy, in that it explicitly positioned current price levels as attractive, with bitcoin trading in the low $60,000 range.

Following bitcoin's worst week in two years, Strategy(MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor published a framework on X, arguing that the Bitcoin community is evolving into four distinct ideological camps.

As CoinDesk reports, rather than viewing these groups as competitors, he presents them as complementary forces that will collectively shape bitcoin’s future.

  • The first group, Bitcoin Maximalists, sees Bitcoin as the ultimate monetary breakthrough. They believe bitcoin has already solved the problem of digital scarcity and offers superior property rights, protection from inflation, and economic empowerment. Their focus is conviction: bitcoin is not one crypto asset among many, but the dominant digital monetary network.

  • The second group, Bitcoin Capitalists, views Bitcoin as a form of digital capital that should be integrated into the global economy. They support corporate treasury adoption, institutional custody, bitcoin-backed securities, lending markets, and broader financial infrastructure. Their goal is to expand bitcoin's reach by embedding it into existing economic systems rather than replacing them.

  • The third group, Bitcoin Technologists, focuses on improving the protocol. They argue that Bitcoin must continue to evolve to address challenges in scalability, privacy, usability, security, and future threats such as quantum computing. While they support innovation, Saylor notes that changes to bitcoin's base layer must be approached cautiously to avoid unintended consequences.

  • The fourth group, Bitcoin Fundamentalists, prioritize protecting bitcoin's original principles: decentralization, self-custody, immutability, censorship resistance, and individual sovereignty. They are wary of excessive institutional influence, financialization, and protocol changes that could compromise Bitcoin's core characteristics.

Saylor's central argument is that Bitcoin needs all four perspectives. Maximalists provide conviction, Capitalists drive adoption, Technologists ensure long-term resilience, and Fundamentalists safeguard the protocol's integrity.

Saylor argues that Bitcoin's most successful path lies in a balance among these four forces.

The piece was published as observers debated whether Strategy's June 1 disclosure had itself contributed to the latest leg lower.

That bitcoin is in a bear market is not in dispute, but as BitcoinMagazine.com reports, Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, argued last week on Bloomberg that this selloff has a measurable cost floor, and that floor is built not from sentiment or chart patterns, but from the physics of energy consumption.

The numbers frame the drawdown in context. Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in the fall before collapsing to roughly $60,000 in February — a 50% correction that, while brutal for recent buyers, falls far short of the 75%-plus implosions that defined prior Bitcoin bear markets.

Ferraioli’s core analytical framework centers on one question: what does it cost to manufacture Bitcoin? The answer creates a natural gravitational floor that has held across multiple cycles. 

For the most efficient miners — those operating at scale with next-generation ASIC hardware and access to the cheapest wholesale energy — the cost to produce one Bitcoin sits at approximately $60,000, Ferraioli said.

That figure is not arbitrary. It represents the all-in expense of powering a facility at roughly $0.07 per kilowatt-hour with the most advanced semiconductor fleets available.

The less efficient miners — those with older ASIC hardware, higher energy costs, and thinner operational margins — carry a production cost of approximately $95,000 per BTC, according to Glassnode data cited in Schwab’s May 2026 research report. That gap between $60,000 and $95,000 defines Bitcoin’s current valuation range. 

Bitcoin’s energy floor: Why $60,000 may mark the bottom

Ferraioli argues that in deep bear markets, the cost of production for the best miners has historically served as the bottom. February’s low near $60,000 aligns almost precisely with that level, as well as BTC’s 200-week moving average.

The BTC selling pressure is not random. It is demographically specific. The investors driving forced liquidations are those who acquired Bitcoin during the past 18 months — buyers who rode the asset from sub-$80,000 up to $126,000 and then watched gains evaporate in full. 

Schwab tracks two cost-basis metrics to quantify this pressure: the average acquisition cost for U.S. spot ETF and ETP holders, which stands near $83,000, and the active investor cost basis — excluding coins rewarded to miners — which sits near $78,000. 

Both figures sit well above current spot prices, putting the majority of recent entrants into unrealized loss positions and reinforcing $83,000 as a ceiling of overhead supply rather than a floor of support.

Glassnode’s on-chain data corroborates this dynamic. Bitcoin’s latest attempted rally stalled at the aggregate ETF cost basis near $83,000, with total realized losses spiking to $1.35 billion per day and long-term holders capitulating from cycle-top positions. Hedge funds represent roughly 30% of spot ETP ownership but are operating market-neutral, executing basis trades rather than taking directional views — meaning they provide no natural bid when prices fall.

Here is where Ferraioli’s analysis turns constructive. Every major publicly traded Bitcoin miner has announced a pivot toward high-performance computing (HPC) for AI inference workloads. The economics on their face appear to favor abandoning mining: inference generates higher net revenue per megawatt-hour than Bitcoin mining during peak demand windows. 

But demand for AI inference is not uniform across 24 hours. Models run hard during business hours and sit idle overnight and on weekends.

That creates a structural opportunity that does not displace BTC mining — it layers on top of it. Schwab’s analysis models Bitcoin as the optimal baseload monetization of power during off-peak hours, with inference overlaid during peak business-hour demand. 

A data center operating this hybrid model maximizes utilization across the full 24-hour cycle rather than leaving capacity dark when inference demand falls away. For miners, this translates to more stable revenue, reduced forced BTC sales to cover operating costs, and lower structural risk across bear market cycles.

Bitcoin is backed by energy 

The underlying thesis is one of energy economics. Bitcoin has no earnings, no free cash flow, and no CEO issuing guidance. Its value, in Ferraioli’s framework, derives from the energy cost required to produce it — a cost that is transparent, verifiable, and historically durable. 

In commodity markets, price cannot sustainably trade below cost of production. Producers shut down, supply contracts, and equilibrium resets higher. 

Bitcoin follows this same logic: when spot prices fall toward $60,000, the least efficient miners shut down operations, the network’s hash rate adjusts through Bitcoin’s difficulty mechanism, and the cost to produce each new coin falls.

As of May 2026, the average mining cost across all Bitcoin miners sits near $85,604, with the Bitcoin price trading in the mid-$60,000s — meaning the network as a whole is operating at a loss, a configuration that has historically preceded recoveries, not further collapse.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 11:05

Equity Supply Surge: What Historically Comes Next

Equity Supply Surge: What Historically Comes Next

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

This past week, the market hit an all-time high. At the same time, Alphabet (GOOG) told investors it would raise $80 billion by selling stock to fund its AI buildout, and the shares fell about 4% on the news. Within days, SpaceX is reportedly set to price one of the largest IPOs ever attempted. If you want a live picture of an equity supply surge meeting a market priced for perfection, you’re looking at it. The question isn’t whether the equity supply is coming. It’s what happens after it lands.

A reader sent me two charts this week. The first, below, shows U.S. equity issuance climbing since 2023. The second chart below matters more, and we’ll get to it momentarily. The reader’s instinct was that these equity supply waves tend to either precede or coincide with market downturns. He’s right, for the most part, but history needs one important correction, and the current setup deserves a closer look than the cheerleading it’s getting.

The Setup: An Equity Supply Wave Meets a Record Market

Let’s start with the mechanics, because they’re what make 2026 different from a normal IPO year. New equity supply will hit the market in two waves, not one. First comes the offering itself. Then, 90 to 180 days later, the lockup expires and insiders, employees, and pre-IPO investors are free to sell. That second wave of equity supply is usually far larger than the IPO, and it arrives after the headlines have faded.

The second chart my reader sent captures exactly this. It stacks IPO gross proceeds against the value of shares freed from expiring lockups, and the 2026 estimate towers over every prior year back to 1998, with the combined figure pushing past $700 billion. The IPO proceeds are a small part, but the lockup overhang is the rest. Make no mistake, that is a wall of supply.

The pipeline backs up the picture. Goldman Sachs has projected that U.S. IPO proceeds could reach a record near $160 billion in 2026 if the marquee names go public. SpaceX, reportedly targeting a valuation north of $1.5 trillion, may price as soon as June 12. Behind it sit OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and Stripe at roughly $134 billion. One pipeline tracker estimates AI-adjacent names account for more than 90% of the projected listing value. That concentration is its own risk, and we’ll return to it.

What History Says About an Equity Supply Surge

The cleanest academic version of my reader’s instinct comes from Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler. In the Journal of Finance, using data back to 1928, they found that the share of equity in total new issuance of equity and debt is a strong predictor of stock market returns. Their key finding: firms issue relatively more equity than debt right before periods of low market returns. Managers and insiders, in other words, are decent market timers. They sell stock when the price is right for the seller, not the buyer.

The chart record fits. The 2000 dot-com mania saw issuance advance into the March 2000 market peak. The S&P then fell roughly 49% into its October 2002 low, and the Nasdaq lost about 78%. The 2020 to 2021 boom was even larger in raw dollars, fueled by more than 600 SPAC listings and a record IPO calendar. The S&P peaked in early January 2022 and dropped about 25% over the next nine months.

Here’s where it gets interesting, and where the history needs its correction. The second-largest issuance spike on the long-run chart sits in 2008, dead in the middle of the recession. That one was not insider timing a market top; it was banks raising emergency capital to survive, much of it through government-funded recapitalization. The crash caused the issuance, not the other way around. So when you test the “supply leads the market” idea, 2008 is a false positive. However, even when you strip that period out, the two genuine euphoric supply surges both led to pain.

The valuation backdrop is what raises the stakes. As of early June 2026, the Shiller CAPE sits around 42. That’s roughly 28% above its own long-term average and within a few points of the all-time record set at the 2000 peak. This is not a cheap market by any means, especially when absorbing new equity supply. In other words, investors are faced with the second-most-expensive market in history, being asked to digest the heaviest issuance calendar on record.

Look at that bottom row. The broad index drawdowns were bad. The damage to the newly issued securities was far worse. As of late 2022, the SPAC class that merged between mid-2020 and the end of 2021 had fallen more than 60% from its reference price and underperformed the Nasdaq by 44%. The primary market itself seized up, global IPO value dropped 72% in 2022, and the Americas hit a 13-year low by volume. The people who bought the supply at the top paid the heaviest price.

Heavy equity supply doesn’t sink markets through mechanics. It shows up precisely when valuations are richest and buyers are most willing to pay any price. The supply is the tell, not the cause.

The Counterargument: Why This Time Could Be Different

Could this time be different? Sure, and the argument isn’t entirely without merit, and three points deserve a fair hearing.

  1. The Fed is easing rather than tightening, which is the opposite of the 2000 and 2022 backdrops.
  2. The companies in this pipeline are real businesses with real revenue, not the cash-shell SPACs and clickless dot-coms of prior bubbles. Databricks alone reported a revenue run rate of over $4.8 billion, growing 55% year over year. 
  3. And the sheer size of names like SpaceX means index funds may become forced buyers once they’re added, providing a steady passive bid the 2021 micro-caps never had.

We discussed that third point recently in the #BullBearReport:

“The Nasdaq 100 is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $600 billion in assets. If SpaceX fast-tracks into the index 15 trading days after pricing, every passive Nasdaq 100 fund becomes a forced buyer. When Tesla joined the S&P 500 in 2020, forced index demand drove the stock from $400 to $700 in three weeks before fundamentals entered the conversation. Index funds had no choice. Their mandate is to track the benchmark, not to price-discover the new constituent.

The S&P 500 is the bigger story. Current rules require 12 months of public trading and four straight quarters of GAAP profitability, neither of which SpaceX satisfies. But in late April, S&P Dow Jones Indices launched a formal consultation on rule changes tailored to the SpaceX IPO, along with subsequent blockbusters coming like Anthropic and OpenAI. The proposal cuts the listing requirement to six months and waives the profitability test entirely for megacap names. The new rules could be in place before SpaceX’s IPO in June. Why is this so important? As noted above, the passive index problem is magnified by the S&P 500, which is benchmarked to roughly $24 trillion and is roughly 40 times the size of the Nasdaq 100. If S&P adopts before SpaceX trades, the forced-buying problem isn’t a Nasdaq problem. It’s the whole index complex.”

Those are valid. Here’s the problem with leaning on them too hard. Quality doesn’t repeal supply and demand. A great company sold at the wrong price is still a bad investment, and the dot-com leaders weren’t all frauds. Cisco was a fantastic business in 2000. It still fell about 80% and took 17 years to reclaim its high. The AI buildout is REAL. The question, as always, is what price you pay for it. As Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 reminds us, when everyone agrees on the outcome, something else usually happens. Right now, nearly everyone agrees 2026 is a layup for new issues.

Then there’s the concentration. With AI-adjacent names making up the overwhelming share of the pipeline, a single bad print on AI capex economics could compress every one of these deals at once. In 2021, the supply was spread across hundreds of unrelated shells. This time, it’s a handful of correlated bets riding the same narrative. That’s not obviously safer. It may be the opposite.

What It Means for Investors

So what do you actually do with this?

First, don’t confuse a warning sign with a sell signal. Farrell’s Rule #4 cuts the other way: exponential markets usually run further than anyone expects before they break. The supply surge is a late-cycle marker, not a timing tool. Markets at records with nine straight up weeks can stay irrational longer than most portfolios can stay short.

Second, separate the index from the issue. The clearest historical lesson is that the freshly issued paper, not the S&P, takes the worst of it. Chasing the IPO pop has been a losing trade for 25 years. The better setup tends to come later, after the lockup wave forces motivated sellers into the tape and prices reset. Patience with the new names usually pays.

Third, treat this as a reason to raise quality and trim the most speculative AI exposure back toward its target weight, rather than abandoning equities altogether. The reality is that risk management means acting before the catalyst, not after. When the equity supply finally clears and the marginal buyer is exhausted, the move tends to be fast. You want to have made your adjustments while the tape was still calm.

My reader’s instinct holds up. Voluntary equity supply surges have marked the last two major tops, and the one forming now is the largest on record by a wide margin. Whether 2026 rhymes with the slow grind of 2000 or just delivers a sharp 2022-style air pocket, the setup rewards discipline over FOMO. The supply is coming. The only open question is who’s left holding it when the music stops.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 10:50

Former Biden J6 Prosecutor's ActBlue-Funded Firm Sues To Stop Trump's UFC White House Event

Former Biden J6 Prosecutor's ActBlue-Funded Firm Sues To Stop Trump's UFC White House Event

A federal lawsuit filed over the weekend seeks to halt the UFC "Freedom 250" event scheduled for June 14 on the White House South Lawn. The suit was brought by the Public Integrity Project - which is funded in part by ActBlue - on behalf of two Virginia residents and targets the Department of the Interior and National Park Service.

Brendan Ballou, founder and CEO of the Public Integrity Project - and is perhaps most notably a former federal prosecutor who served in the Department of Justice during the Biden administration. He worked in the Antitrust Division as Special Counsel for Private Equity and was detailed for two years to the team prosecuting January 6 Capitol rioters. He resigned from DOJ after President Trump issued pardons for many January 6 defendants in January 2025.

The complaint alleges the event violates federal regulations by staging a private sporting event on federal parkland (generally prohibited by National Park Service rules), constructing a large temporary structure ("the claw") without required congressional approval, and failing to conduct an environmental review under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), ESPN reports.

The plaintiffs argue the event is a private commercial venture benefiting UFC, Dana White, and President Trump (including through sponsorship packages reportedly priced at $1–1.5 million and potential promotional value), rather than a legitimate government-sponsored semiquincentennial celebration. They are seeking an emergency preliminary injunction.

Ballou has described the event as "a profound misuse of our sacred national monuments for private gain" and a "deeply corrupt scheme."

Also Biden folks...

PIP

The Public Integrity Project is a relatively new public-interest law firm Ballou founded in January 2026 after leaving government. It describes its mission as raising the legal and reputational cost of corruption. The organization has far-left affiliations (including figures such as former Sen. Russ Feingold) and solicits donations through ActBlue. It has filed other lawsuits challenging Trump administration actions since its formation.

The legal claims rest on standard administrative and environmental law arguments about permitting, construction on federal land, and procedural requirements. Similar procedural challenges to events or construction on federal property have been filed against multiple administrations. Whether this suit succeeds will depend on the court's rulings on standing and the merits of the regulatory claims.

The UFC event is set for June 14, coinciding with President Trump's 80th birthday and America 250 commemorations. A ruling on the emergency injunction request is expected this week.

President Camacho wouldn't stand for this... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 10:35

More Shocking Revelations Emerge In Henry Nowak Case...

More Shocking Revelations Emerge In Henry Nowak Case...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

The brutal murder of 18-year-old Henry Nowak by Vickrum Digwa has exposed a pattern of ignored warnings, police inaction, and institutional failures that stretch back years.

A young British man is dead after being stabbed multiple times with a large ceremonial dagger. Multiple red flags about the killer were waved in front of authorities long before that night in Southampton. They were all dismissed.

Reports and footage have now surfaced revealing that in October 2022, neighbours heard loud gunshots coming from a back garden in Southampton. They filmed Vickrum Digwa brandishing what appeared to be an illegal air pistol while another man held an air rifle. The pair were shooting at a wooden board. The neighbours immediately reported it to police with video evidence.

Police responded that they could do nothing because there had been "no reports from other residents."

A neighbour later said: "We could hear gunshots, we went to look and saw them shooting guns at a wooden board. We filed a report to the police, but they told us they couldn't do anything as there had been no reports from other residents."

Digwa was already known for weapons obsession. Court evidence later described him as "skilled with weapons, trained with weapons, sleeps with weapons, searches for weapons on his phone."

Video evidence from before the murder shows Digwa aggressively handling a sword in public. One clip captures him in traditional dress, sword in hand, displaying the same confrontational manner that would later prove fatal.

His own Sikh community had already taken action. He was banned from the local Gurdwara because members viewed him as dangerous.

Digwa had also threatened a worshipper at his local temple.

On the night Henry Nowak was killed, Digwa and his family called 999. They claimed Henry needed medical attention for what they described as just "a cut to his mouth." They explicitly told the call handler there were no knives involved.

GB News anchor Patrick Christys highlights the details:

The police call handler also made this stunning admission.

But it gets even worse.

Just three days after the murder, in an apparent attempt to get control of the narrative, Hampshire Police prepared a statement that attempted to portray Henry as the aggressor. The initial wording stated: "It was reported two men had been assaulted by an unknown man."

The Nowak family pushed back hard against the false narrative. Police later softened the language to refer only to an "altercation."

Even after Digwa was arrested and placed in a police vehicle, he still had the murder weapon on him. Reports indicate the large ceremonial knife remained around his neck until he was searched at the station. He was not handcuffed during transport.

A source described the security failure as a "massive blunder" that could have been dangerous.

These failures fit a wider pattern of rampant two tier policing.

A veteran police officer reveals to The Telegraph today that Scotland Yard has been captured by the "woke mind virus," with institutional priorities skewed by diversity agendas and fear of racism accusations.

Former chairman of the Metropolitan Police Federation Rick Prior has stated that for more than a decade, senior management at the Met pursued a policy of equalising outcomes between ethnic groups rather than ensuring equality of opportunity and equal treatment for all citizens.

This shift in priorities created an environment where warnings about armed individuals from certain backgrounds were downplayed to avoid racism accusations, while efforts were redirected toward narrative control and outcome engineering.

In a foreword to a Free Speech Union report examining the policies and training materials that directly contributed to police believing Henry Nowak's murderer over his victim, Prior was blunt. He wrote that it seemed the Met's senior management had been ideologically captured, and that its resistance to change was insurmountable.

The Free Speech Union report explicitly links this ideological capture to the mishandling of the Nowak case. Training materials and internal policies had conditioned officers to view certain groups through a lens of protected status, leading to the dismissal of evidence and the initial smearing of the white British victim as the aggressor.

Prior's testimony confirms what the public has witnessed for years: policing in Britain has been systematically distorted. Equality before the law was replaced by a hierarchy of victimhood.

These claims dovetail with Hampshire police whistleblowers noting that they had DEI training thrust down their throats, a trend that has been replicated across the country.

Police ignored clear evidence of an armed man with a history of threats. They downplayed or smeared the white British victim. They left a known knife carrier unsecured in custody. Religious exemptions for weapons were treated as sacrosanct even when the carrier had already shown violent intent.

The result was predictable: another young Briton dead, another family destroyed, and another demonstration that two-tier policing protects some groups while leaving others exposed.

Henry Nowak should still be alive. The warnings were there. The videos existed. The community had already acted where police would not. Every layer of the system that should have protected him instead prioritised narrative management and institutional optics.

Accountability must follow. Religious exemptions that allow dangerous weapons in public must end. Police forces captured by ideology must be reformed root and branch. British citizens deserve equal protection under the law, without fear that reporting an armed threat will be ignored because of the perpetrator's background.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 10:00

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