Obamacare Premiums Likely To Rise In 2027, Analysts Say

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Affordable Care Act premiums rose sharply in 2026 and are likely to continue to do so in 2027, based on early rate change filings by some insurers.

A pedestrian walks past an insurance agency that offers Affordable Care Act plans, in Miami on Jan. 28, 2021. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Of the 77 insurers whose proposed rates are now publicly available, the median proposed premium increase is 14 percent, according to a July 8 report by health information group Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker.

The primary reason given for the proposed rate hikes is that the insured population under the Affordable Care Act - former President Barack Obama's health care law, known as Obamacare - is likely to be smaller and sicker than this year's.

Enrollment in the program dropped by about 3 million this year, and the report estimates that healthier people were more likely to withdraw from the program.

Some experts say that the fall-off in participation was driven by the fall-off of fraudulent enrollments or of participants who had been enrolled unknowingly.

This would be the fifth consecutive year of premium increases in the program. Last year's median proposed change was 18 percent. The final median change was 20 percent, according to the report.

The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.

Initial premium rates for 2027 were filed in mid-June and will be finalized by Aug. 12, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The Peterson-KFF analysis was based on 77 plans across 17 jurisdictions.

Those were Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, and Washington. However, only partial data were available for Hawaii, Illinois, and Texas.

For 2026, 183 health plan issuers are participating in Obamacare, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Despite the expiration of the enhanced subsidies, the vast majority (87 percent) of 2026 Obamacare enrollees receive an advance premium tax credit, according to the Healthcare Financial Management Association.

The average enrollee who gets a federal subsidy receives a $650 credit, leaving a $96 monthly premium, according to data provided by KFF.

Subsidies are available to Americans with a household income of between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That equates to about $15,600 to $62,600 for an individual or about $32,200 to $128,600 for a family of four.

Current Obamacare enrollment is about 19.2 million - the highest for any year except 2025.

Georgetown University's Center on Health Insurance Reforms published a similar preliminary analysis of 2027 rates on June 18. That report forecasted an enrollment decline of 17 percent to 26 percent in the individual market.

The Georgetown report estimates rate hikes ranging from about 7 percent in Vermont to about 22 percent in Washington.

Final rates for Obamacare plans will be posted in October. Open enrollment begins on Nov. 1.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 22:10

Hedge Fund CIO: "We Haven't Yet Diffused AI Across The Economy To The Degree That It Can Be Useful"

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“President Putin said, ‘I would love to meet Zelensky in Moscow.’ And I said, ‘I don't think...you know, I have to put myself in his position. I don’t know that he’d go to Moscow,” said Trump, seated next to Zelensky in the Oval Office, the two of them discussing Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Maybe he would. Would you go to Moscow?” Trump asked Zelensky, putting him on the spot, cameras snapping away. “It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there,” answered Zelensky, unable to suppress a smile. “That’s right,” said Trump. “It’s dangerous,” laughed Zelensky.

Human beings really are the best. We can adapt to the sickest crap. And if we really can’t stop ourselves from killing one another, may as well start joking about it. Iran’s Larijani joked that the IRGC could take Trump out with a micro-drone while sunbathing at Mar-a-Lago. Trump told Fox News that it’s been a long time since he’s been sunbathing, “Maybe I was around 7 or so. I’m not too big into it.”

It wasn’t long ago that the Iran war seemed like a big deal. It used to be that killing heads of state was taboo. And I can remember when people thought closing Hormuz would spark a global depression. Russia’s biggest industrialist, Andrey Melnichenko, warned of the potential for a horrifying outcome if Russia continues down its self-destructive path. I’m pretty sure he was hinting that Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon if backed into a corner.

I first saw a philosophical justification for a preemptive tactical nuke strike 2mths ago [here]. Apparently, now that humans have adapted to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, our thermonuclear nukes have become a bit of a joke, because no one would dare ever use one. The VIX index naturally declined to 15. Which mechanically forces volatility-controlled investment strategies to take more risk. Lifting equity prices. Lowering volatility. Inviting volatility sellers. Just like every other late market cycle. After a while it honestly gets kind of funny. 

Artificial Intelligence+

To break dependence on Western technology and drive a new era of growth, in 2024 Beijing explicitly categorized its industrial focus into:

1. Six Future Industries (long-term, frontier technologies) and
2. Six Emerging Pillar Industries (near-term economic drivers).

Then in Aug 2025, Beijing formalized an “Artificial Intelligence+” initiative, which treats AI as foundational, cross-cutting tech - like electricity or infrastructure - rather than a standalone sector. The initiative emphasizes deep AI integration across The Sixes. 

The Six Future Industries are frontier technologies that Beijing seeks to establish first-mover advantage and dictate global standards over 10yrs. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established six broad overarching categories (Future Manufacturing, Information, Materials, Energy, Space, Health). These translate into six specific priorities: Embodied Artificial Intelligence, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Quantum Technology, Hydrogen & Nuclear Fusion Energy, Biomanufacturing, and 6G Mobile Communications. 

The Six Emerging Pillar Industries are to drive immediate, massive economic output.

• Integrated Circuits: domestic semiconductor manufacturing to bypass US export controls.
• Low-Altitude Economy: drones, flying cars, and infrastructure to manage low-altitude airspace.
• Intelligent Robots: automation hardware for factories/logistics.
• Aviation and Aerospace: commercial spaceflight, satellite networks, domestic commercial aircraft.
• Energy Storage: advanced battery tech to support the grid.
• Biomedicine: advanced pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.

Ten Basis Points:

“It’s going to be China or the US,” said the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech names, macro themes. “A European sovereign AI is a pipe dream – they think Mistral will be their LLM and they’ll build data centers? Really? How exactly?” he asked. “They need Nvidia. They need a tech stack that has emerged from American and Asian IP that combines to form these magical machines that you throw a model into.” To create intelligence. “And what happens to these nations that can’t afford tokens in the next few years? How do India and Brazil and all these second-tier companies even compete?”

“We’ve entered an era where the biggest of the big - Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Tesla, even JP Morgan - will be accessing tokens in ways that is going to catapult their businesses ahead of everybody else,” continued the CIO. “This sort of faux debate over cheap open-source AI versus expensive Anthropic is nonsense. There’s a shortage of intelligence - pure and simple – we’re below ten basis points of market penetration in this stuff across the global economy, why are people even having a debate over this?”

“Given all the component shortages and constraints, and the anti-AI populist backlash, we could see a horrific market crash along the way, but we haven’t yet diffused this technology across the economy to the degree that it can be useful,” he continued. My Tesla drives me everywhere. I’m a super user, virtually alone. But in 10 years, no one will drive. “We have zero AI in  regulated processes within banks, healthcare companies and insurance companies because the errors and hallucination are being ironed out.” But they will be. “This could be the last great bull market in technology. What could eclipse superintelligence?” 

Anecdote:

“As we know the two principal players and their mentor, I take their words and actions as a serious roadmap,” said the CIO. We were discussing Bessent’s speech at the Economic Club of New York [here] and Warsh’s press conference following his first FOMC meeting [here]. “Much like the Chinese Communist Party 5-year plans, we’re glimpsing the future for American economic policy. Having watched the Chinese game the global trading system to the point that it broke leads me to believe it should be reassembled in Scott’s vision for something more equitable,” continued the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech, macro themes.

“AI competition with China is also central to this strategy. It’s possible that like Reagan spending Gorbachev into the ground, we could cause the Chinese system to hit the wall.” Interesting.

“Beijing’s national data center strategy is to build massive scale in token factories.” CXMT is their national DRAM champion and is about to IPO. Its disclosures reveal deep inefficiencies. Beijing will inevitably subsidize its losses. “Chinese open-source models are all the rage on Twitter. They’re not as good for complex thinking but very good at specific tasks and sub agent work. Therefore, as these models sit on US tech stacks, no Chinese innovator is making money - AWS makes the money for producing the token,” he said.

“Having already sunk massive amounts into EV, Solar, and other areas, one day the Chinese may well hit a wall, especially given they have yet to tackle their property sector.” The chronic decline in Chinese property prices has caused a depression in domestic consumption.

“If Scott’s strategy works and allied nations realize it’s better to play along then not, the Chinese export markets could become smaller precisely when they need them most. At the same time Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Hong Kong do stuff we need so we could work more diplomatically with them as they are no longer the Asian Tigers of our youth,” he said.

“Let’s see how it plays out but it’s fascinating and why guys like us stay in the game.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:41

United States Retains Spot As World's Top Oil Producer

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The United States was the largest crude oil producer in the world in 2025, outputting a “record-high” 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a July 9 statement from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

America’s output was far ahead of second-placed Russia, which produced 9.9 million bpd. Saudi Arabia came in third with 9.6 million bpd, with Canada in the fourth spot at 5 million bpd. The difference in oil output between the United States and other top producers widened last year, with Russian supplies mostly remaining unchanged year-over-year while Saudi Arabia saw a modest increase.

The 13.6 million bpd output breaks the previous U.S. and global production record of 13.2 million bpd set in 2024. The United States first overtook Russia as the top global oil producer in 2018 and has since retained the number one spot.

EIA attributed the consistently high oil production in the United States to “continued gains in drilling productivity and operational efficiency across key shale basins, which allow operators to extract more oil per well.”

Powered by shale development, the United States has become not only the top crude oil producer “but the largest producer of crude oil ever,” the agency said.

In addition to record-high production last year, exports have been climbing. In April, U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit a record, with crude oil exports averaging 5.6 million bpd, 21 percent higher than the previous record from December 2023, the EIA said in a July 8 statement.

The exports of finished petroleum products, including jet fuel and motor gasoline, hit the highest level since December 2024.

The record-high exports in April 2026 came amid disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.–Iran war, a development that ended up boosting global demand for American energy. Brent crude oil futures had hit a peak of over $126 per barrel in April. Prices have since come down and ended Friday at around $76.

In its latest statement, EIA said the jump in oil production last year happened despite oil prices being lower, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price dropping from an average of $77 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025. WTI is a benchmark for crude oil produced in the United States.

Moreover, EIA predicts America’s crude oil production to be close to 13.7 million bpd this year and to rise to 14.2 million bpd in 2027.

Boosting Oil Production

The higher oil output follows multiple actions taken by the Trump administration aimed at boosting production.

In November 2025, the administration announced the approval of new oil drilling leases off the coasts of Alaska, Florida, and California.

In January this year, the administration initiated the first step to offering oil and gas drilling leases in California, with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management seeking information on potential lease areas to auction as early as next year.

In March, the Department of the Interior conducted an oil lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, the first since 2019.

This action came under criticism from the environmental group Sierra Club. Mike Scott, Sierra Club’s oil and gas campaign manager, in a March 18 statement, accused President Donald Trump of making oil corporation CEOs richer at the cost of the environment.

“The Western Arctic is not just any landscape—it’s one of the last true wild places in the country, home to rare and threatened wildlife and cultures that have subsisted on the land for thousands of years,” Scott said.

“Drilling in the Arctic won’t solve our energy crisis, but it will cause irreversible damage to these pristine landscapes. Big Oil has been champing at the bit to get its hands on these lands, and Trump is making their wishes come true.”

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum had said, post the lease sale in Alaska, that the sale underscored the reserve’s vital role in strengthening America’s energy security.

The reserve “was created to support our nation’s energy needs, and this successful sale demonstrates what’s possible when we align responsible development with that original purpose,” Burgum said. “Revenues from these leases will help bolster local communities, create good‑paying jobs, and ensure that Alaska continues to be a cornerstone of America’s domestic energy production.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice has decided to ditch the oil and gas leasing restrictions imposed by the prior administration in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Alaska and its industrial development and export authority had filed lawsuits challenging the restrictions.

On July 7, the department said that these restrictions violated federal law and asked the court to dismiss the lawsuits.

U.S. acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that the prior administration’s actions “improperly limited” Alaska’s energy potential through “unreasonable” regulations. “This settlement supports the Trump administration’s commitment to secure American energy independence and our national security for generations to come.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:00

These Are The States Driving America's Economic Growth

The U.S. economy grew 2.1% in real terms in 2025, but that national figure tells only part of the story. While every state economy expanded, some grew nearly ten times faster than others.

Using the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), this map, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, compares real GDP growth across all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

The Sun Belt Ascendant

No states grew more in 2025 than Florida and South Carolina, which both expanded by 3.1%. Their strong growth rates reflect the continued economic momentum of the American South and the broader Sun Belt.

Arkansas (2.2%), North Carolina (2.7%), and Texas (2.5%) also performed better than the national average.

This data table ranks U.S. states based on their 2025 real GDP growth, measuring the change in overall economic output after adjusting for inflation.

 

Both the Southeast and Southwest regions grew by an average of 2.3% in 2025. Increasingly, these Sun Belt regions have benefited from favorable corporate tax regimes and lower costs of living relative to more traditional growth hubs such as the Northeast and Far West.

 

Population growth has also become an important driver of the region’s economic expansion. Lower housing costs in many markets, business-friendly tax policies, and continued migration from other parts of the country have supported stronger demand, investment, and job creation across much of the Sun Belt. Two-thirds of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. are southern Sun Belt cities, often in Florida or Texas.

The Continued Strength of California and New York

However, strong growth was not limited to the South. California, the nation’s largest state economy, saw growth of 2.5%.

Despite record domestic migration outflows, the Golden State remains a major economic force with sustained, above-average growth. Similarly, New York registered 2.9% growth in real GDP in 2025, third-highest in the country.

Growth within these traditional heavyweights was powered by robust private investment and strong years for sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, and professional services.

The Slowest Growth in the Nation

Nationwide, the slowest growth was registered in North Dakota (0.3%), followed by West Virginia and Wyoming at 0.5% each. No state’s GDP contracted in 2025, while Washington, D.C. saw just 0.4% annual growth.

At the regional level, the Plains (1.4%) and Great Lakes (1.7%) regions lagged the rest of the country. These regions were particularly hurt by downturns in agriculture and a manufacturing slump, both of which were impacted by trade disruptions.

Meanwhile, a record-long government shutdown in late 2025 also affected many local communities dependent on federal agricultural financing.

Wondering how these state-level growth patterns fit into the national picture? Check out OECD Cuts U.S. Growth Forecast Over Tariffs, Policy Uncertainty on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:25

Oil Jumps, Futures Drop On Fresh Iran Strikes, Hormuz Confusion

Oil jumped and US equity futures fell after the US launched another round of strikes against Iran, while conflicting claims over the status of the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty.

S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% in early trading Monday after the cash index closed 0.4% higher on Friday.

WTI crude climbed 3% at the open, trading around $74, while the dollar rose against most major peers. 

Risk crept in after the US military launched several rounds of strikes in recent days, culminating with the latest barrage around 5pmET on Sunday aimed at further weakening Iran’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said. The latest action followed Iranian drone and missile attacks on US allies including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar in response to earlier US strikes. 

At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 12, 2026

Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz only added to the uncertainty, after Iran said it had closed the waterway while the US military and maritime authorities said shipping continued through its southern route. According to Axios, a US official said "around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination."

“The latest developments over the weekend suggest markets may face a volatile start to trading which could test the glass half full mentality we have seen recently,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

Besides a return to hostilities, investors are also bracing for a pivotal earnings season, with results from JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman and Wells all due Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 24% jump in second-quarter profits, though the benchmark’s rally has become increasingly reliant on gains outside the technology megacaps that have driven markets in recent years.

In Europe, Deutsche Bank expects Stoxx 600 firms to report a 12% jump in second-quarter earnings, following a 7% rise in the first quarter. Profits for MSCI Asia Pacific constituents are estimated to rise 39%, up from 6.9% in the previous three months, largely driven by chip-exporting powerhouses such as Korea and Japan. 

The outlook is being tested by persistent inflation, higher energy prices and growing expectations the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates, threatening corporate margins. Just last week, several Fed officials warned that surging memory prices are rising core inflation, with Goldman calculating that the impact on core PCE by year-end will be +0.5% due to surging chip costs.

With US and global equities trading near record highs and valuations elevated, investors see little room for disappointing results.

Investors will also keep a close eye on this week's US CPI data, after oil’s biggest weekly gain since mid-May revived concerns that higher energy costs could further complicate the disinflation story. Consumer and producer price reports - the last inflation readings before the Fed meets later this month - will offer fresh clues on the path of interest rates.

Traders have ramped up bets on further tightening, with swaps pricing almost 40 basis points of Fed hikes by December, up from about 15 basis points in early June. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect both headline and core inflation to have eased slightly in June, though both are forecast to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.  

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also make his first congressional appearance since taking the helm after pledging to scale back forward guidance on the rate outlook.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:20

US Men's World Cup Team Required To Split $12.8M Payout With Women's Team

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

America’s fleeting interest in soccer may once again have abated following a humiliating World Cup defeat to Belgium last Monday, in a game that saw President Donald Trump become personally involved over a red-card dispute.

But the high-profile flop in the first elimination round was not the only indignity that the U.S. athletes must endure.

A collective bargaining agreement means that the team will have to share its $16 million prize pot (minus a 20% cut for the U.S. Men’s Soccer organization) with the U.S. women’s team.

“The remaining 80 percent is split evenly between the men’s and women’s player pools, meaning each team is set to receive $6.4 million from the USMNT’s run,” the New York Post reported.

That puts the estimated takeaway for each player on the two teams’ 26-man -person rosters at $246,153. However, since there is no finalized roster for the women’s team, which will vie for its fifth World Cup championship next year in Brazil, those payouts will remain in escrow for now.

The women’s success in the quadrennial tournament gave them extra leverage to demand the pay gap be closed after their 2019 championship title. By contrast, the men’s team has never won the tournament and last made it to the round of 16 in 2002.

But the men’s matches historically have drawn greater viewership. The loss to Belgium saw a U.S. television audience exceeding 45 million viewers, while the highest-rated women’s game, the 2015 World Cup final, saw the audience peak at just 26.7 million.

For winning the entire tournament in 2019, the women’s team received a total of $4 million from the $30 million overall that the league took in.

Despite the attempt at pay parity, critics such as The Spectator’s Melissa Chen noted that the agreement flies in the face of one of capitalism’s central tenets — the importance of market value.

The US men's national soccer team is being subjected to the same kind of legalized plunder that defines too many divorce proceedings in this country.

After grinding through qualifiers, earning their spot in the World Cup, and generating the massive FIFA payout that only the… https://t.co/ZnSJjDHcbD

— Melissa Chen (@MsMelChen) July 9, 2026

“It disincentivizes excellence on the men’s side (why push harder if your windfall gets redistributed?) and removes pressure on the women’s side to grow their own commercial appeal,” Chen wrote. “Like divorce settlements that trap high-earners in perpetual support roles, this policy treats men’s soccer as a piggy bank for ‘fairness,’ not a business rewarding what fans and sponsors actually value."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 19:50

Geothermal Heats Up: Fervo Drilling Rates Soar 143% While Quaise Raises $134M

While the Trump administration keeps pushing domestic energy addition through funding vehicles and executive orders aimed at grid reliability and AI-driven demand growth, two next-generation geothermal developers just posted updates that move past announcements and into measurable progress on drilling and capital formation.

Fervo announced that its third-generation well design at Cape Station in Utah has lifted drilling rates by 143% compared with the first Cape well. 

The latest well, Sawtooth 7, reached 19,448 feet measured depth, including a 7,500-foot lateral, in just 21 days. That’s a 70% reduction in drilling time versus the prior design generation, even as the team targets hotter rock at 460 degrees Fahrenheit and larger casing diameters for higher output per well. 

Phase I at Cape Station remains on track for first power later this year, with Phase II targeting 400 MW online in 2028. Faster wells directly compress costs and timelines for the kind of repeatable deployment investors have been waiting to see.

Fervo’s Cape Phase II is tracking toward roughly $5,500/kW installed, with a longer-term target of $3,000/kW as the drilling learning curve keeps compounding. That remains well below the Georgia Vogtle nuclear units, which ultimately landed somewhere between $10,000 and $15,000/kW after years of delays and overruns.

As we reported back in February when the DOE released its $171.5 million Notice of Funding Opportunity for EGS field tests and resource confirmation drilling, the policy environment has turned supportive for technologies that can deliver firm, 24/7 carbon-free power without weather dependence. 

Quaise Energy moved in parallel with the initial close of a $134 million Series B round, bringing total funding to roughly $230 million. Prelude Ventures led, with strategic participation from JERA and Idemitsu Kosan of Japan. 

The proceeds target Project Obsidian, the company’s planned first commercial superhot geothermal plant on federal leases in central Oregon near Newberry Volcano. Quaise’s millimeter-wave drilling technology is approaching one kilometer of depth in Texas test wells after penetrating more than 100 meters of granite. 

The goal remains first electrons to the grid by 2030 from a facility with long-term gigawatt-scale potential once superhot rock above 300 degrees Celsius is routinely accessed.

Both moves align with the administration’s emphasis on unleashing American energy dominance and securing reliable power for data centers that cannot tolerate intermittency. Geothermal’s baseload profile makes it a natural complement to the nuclear builds that remain frustratingly slow on actual construction despite regulatory tailwinds.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 19:15

The Real Point Of The "Patriot Front" Psy-Op

Authored by Kit Knightly via OffGuardian,

Over the Fourth of July weekend, Washington DC found itself beset by the "Patriot Front", about 400 guys in matching outfits, with white balaclavas covering their faces and waving flags about.

The (relatively small) gathering walked about a bit, did some marching, waved some flags...and scared the press to death!

The group marched away from Union Station, carrying various flags, including Confederate flags. pic.twitter.com/Xo0WDH2B9O

— Mitchell Miller (@mmillerwtop) July 4, 2026

They're not real, of course.

The running joke has already become they are barely-disguised federal agents indulging in some rather lame propaganda, even as some members of rightwing defend both their realness and their aims.

Apparently they do community projects and stuff.

Regardless, they are not real. Even if they're not literally all FBI agents - which we can't actually rule out - they are a psy-op to some extent or another.

Just look at them. And you can just look at them, do you know why? Because they're all over the press and social media.

This picture in particular has "gone viral":

Several similarly themed "lone ethnic minority surrounded by faceless Nazis" pictures all sprang up at once, which is suspicious in and of itself, but this is the one that really stuck.

Both the bots and people who don't realise they've become bots are promoting it all over the place. "It should win a Pulitzer prize" they say. "This photo will define our age."

This kind of coverage, this kind of engineered viral content, is the hallmark of the psy-op, and it shows what Patriot Front (and groups like them) are really for:

Creating the illusory threat of potential fascism on the fringes to distract from very real fascism already in the very centre of power.

"You see those guys? In the khakis waving flags about? They're Nazis. That's what fascism is, waving flags and doing wrong think.

"Us, the people who spy on you, lock you in your house, track your movements, restrict your speech and indoctrinate your kids, we're not fascists. In fact, we're protecting you from the meanie fascists and their heinous flag-waving ways."

That's the point of displays like the Patriot Front.

They transform fascism from policy into paraphernalia. Fascism becomes a combination of outfit and accoutrements, rather than authoritarian politics.

With the implied corollary that, as long as you're not wearing the outfit or waving the flag, you're not actually fascist.

Even as the Flock cameras spread, digital ID looms, and authors are imprisoned for criticizing the regime.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 18:40

James Carville Has Major Freakout Over The Socialist Wing Of The Party

James Carville thinks Democrats are making the same mistake that helped elect Donald Trump in 2016 - and he says they're doing it all over again.

In a Politicon video posted Friday, the veteran Democratic strategist blasted the party's growing crop of Democratic socialist insurgents, arguing they're more interested in defeating fellow Democrats than Republicans and warning they'll hand the GOP more victories in the process.

He pointed to a string of primary defeats that have unseated sitting Democratic members of Congress in favor of candidates running even further to their left. In New York, Brad Lander defeated Rep. Dan Goldman, and Democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier ousted Rep. Adriano Espaillat. Democratic socialist Melat Kiros beat sitting Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado. Carville also singled out Michigan candidate Abdul El-Sayed as the case study of what worries him most, accusing him of running a campaign that treats both parties as enemies rather than just Republicans.

For Carville, the roots of today's fight go back nearly a decade. He called the 2016 election when President Donald Trump was elected the most catastrophic event of this century and put the blame on Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), whom he described as an insurgent liberal who dragged the Democratic primary into the summer long after the math had settled that race.

"How did Trump win? I'll tell you how, because goddamn Bernie Sanders is the reason that Donald Trump is president. You hear me, listen to me, I'm telling you the truth." By Carville's read, the prolonged primary bled working-class voters out of Pennsylvania and into Trump's column. "Because Sanders is telling working people in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin... that somehow or another it was corporate America. Yeah, it's corporate. The Democrats are a corporatist party. There's no difference between the establishment Democrats... Are you kidding me?"

Now Carville sees the sequel writing itself. He argues the new class of socialist challengers is running the same play against Democratic incumbents that Sanders once ran against Clinton, and he wants no part of the popular argument on the left that establishment Democrats and establishment Republicans are interchangeable.

"These people are so f-king stupid I don't know what to say about it," Carville said. "So now we have this idea that these insurgent Democrats - and what is their solution?"

His actual complaint runs deeper than a stray insult. Carville argues these candidates aren't trying to beat Republicans at all. They're running against their own party as if it were the obstacle, a strategy he considers self-defeating on its face.

"Is their solution to beat Republicans, to run against Republicans? No! Their solution is to beat Democrats like they're part of the problem. You are part of the problem because you're a f-king idiot!"

Carville warned Democrats against what he called false prophets, accusing far-left candidates of marketing themselves as superior to both parties in a pitch he thinks collapses under its own weight once the general election arrives.

Carville's criticism of the far left and Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates hardly makes him a moderate. He still views the Democratic Party as America's answer and the Republican Party as its biggest obstacle. "It's not both parties' faults! One party expanded health insurance, all right? Another party destroyed it. One party balanced the budget and created economic prosperity. The other party destroyed it. One party brought about a deal with Iran's nuclear program. Another party destroyed it," he said.

"And all these people, go beat a Republican - then come back and I will respect you," Carville said. "Until you do that, I have nothing but contempt for you. And somehow or another, among Democrats, something became more important than winning elections. And that became, 'Oh, I want to feel superior to people.'"

Carville sees the far left of the party as responsible for Donald Trump's election and, thus, for the current makeup of the Supreme Court. "None of this would have happened, none of it if it wasn't for the left wing of the Democratic Party," he said. "If you believe that, blame the left wing of the Democratic Party for the catastrophe that we're facing right now. Because as much as any group, it's their fault."

Watch:

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 18:05

McConnell Watch: CNN Duped Into Running Fake X Post Mocking Its Own Analyst

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

OOPS: CNN This Morning cites parody account of fake congressman @RepJackKimble on list of quotes about Sen. Mitch McConnell's health. pic.twitter.com/GBXJ37bkoe

— Nick (@nspin310) July 8, 2026

Since last year's corporate takeover of CNN's parent company, Warner Brothers, by Paramount Skydance and its Trump-friendly CEO, David Ellison, the notoriously left-slanted network has been braced for the inevitable fallout.

A humiliating on-air mistake that involved quoting a fake member of Congress may be just the catalyst needed for some heavy-handed house-cleaning.

On Wednesday, "CNN This Morning" anchor Audie Cornish shared a series of social-media statements from GOP insiders who claimed to have been in contact with AWOL Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

The roundup included statements from spokespeople for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. and John Barrasso, R-Wyo., as well as former McConnell campaign adviser Scott Jennings, himself a regular CNN panelist.

"He's still recovering in the hospital. We talked for just shy of 20 minutes," Jennings wrote Tuesday in an X post.

Many found the "trust me" posts to be unconvincing amid mounting speculation that McConnell may be braindead, if not altogether deceased, following a June 14 medical emergency, and a growing clamor for proof-of-life evidence.

Jennings's post spawned several imitators, also claiming to have spoken to McConnell on a disparate array of unlikely topics.

I spoke to McConnell for about 20 minutes this morning. He said we should end the war with Iran, quit giving aid to Israel, stop spying on Americans without a warrant, and he's really sorry about how my primary turned out.

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) July 7, 2026

Among the dubious claims was one from the spoof account of fake lawmaker Rep. Jack Kimble, representing California's 54th district (it currently has only 52).

"We talked for just shy of 45 minutes," the post said, following a familiar template.

"He's so sharp," it continued. "Just like always he let me do all of the talking. He's a great listener. After that we prayed silently for awhile and had a staring contest. Just like always, he beat me."

I spoke to my old friend Mitch McConnell this morning, the senior Senator from Kentucky. He's still recovering in the hospital. We talked for just shy of 45 minutes. He's so sharp. Just like always he let me do all of the talking. He's a great listener. After that we prayed…

— Rep. Jack Kimble (@RepJackKimble) July 7, 2026

Kimble's prank drew positive responses from both sides of the aisle.

Professional Trump hater George Conway, who recently lost his bid to be a Democrat congressman from New York, wrote, "You are my favorite Congressman."

You are my favorite Congressman

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) July 8, 2026

Meanwhile, Brendan Carr, a Trump ally and current chair of the Federal Communications Commission, seemed to take particular note of the allegations that CNN was exposing its left-wing biases once again, writing "oof" on a post that was commenting on the subject.

oof

— Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) July 8, 2026

Cornish corrected the record on Thursday's broadcast, stating "Obviously we should not have done that, and we regret the error."

According to the New York Post, the parody Kimble account claims to be "the brainchild of a Chicago school teacher." The account, launched in 2009, has previously fooled the Washington Post and the Huffington Post website.

Kimble also has a book for sale on Amazon, titled Detective Jesus No. 1: Thou Shalt Not Kill.

Kimble claims in his X biography to be the co-sponsor of Poe's Law, which the Post described as "a reference to the internet adage that parodies of extreme political views are often mistaken for genuine statements unless clearly marked as satire."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 17:30

Trump Admin Subpoenas New York Times Reporters Over Coverage Of New Air Force One

The Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas on Friday to four New York Times reporters, ordering them to testify in Manhattan on Wednesday about stories describing security gaps in the new Air Force One. Federal agents showed up at some of the reporters' homes to deliver the subpoenas in person, a detail that has The Times claiming amounts to government intimidation.

The four subpoenaed journalists are Julian E. Barnes, Eric Lipton, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt. Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, issued the subpoenas, which offer almost nothing in the way of specifics beyond a request that the reporters testify "in regard to an alleged violation of federal criminal law."

The two stories in question ran on consecutive days this week, both built on anonymous sourcing. Wednesday's story claimed Trump left Turkey aboard the older Air Force One because the Secret Service urged the switch as a security precaution. Thursday's follow-up reported that the new Qatari-donated Boeing 747-8 lacks some of the advanced security features found on the older plane, including antimissile capabilities.

Those details describe the defensive capabilities of the aircraft that carries the president of the United States, sourced anonymously and published for anyone in the world to read, including people who wish the president harm.

"The appearance of federal law enforcement agents on the doorstep of news reporters should shock the conscience of any American who believes in the Constitution and the press freedom it protects," David McCraw, the top newsroom lawyer for the New York Times, said in a Friday evening statement. "Our journalists report the facts and advance the American public's right to know how their government is operating and their taxpayer dollars are being used. This brazen act should be seen as nothing more than an attempt to prevent the public from knowing what is happening in their country by intimidating journalists from doing their jobs."

The Times casts the subpoenas as further evidence of a uniquely hostile administration. "Mr. Trump has long been a harsh critic of the news media," the paper wrote. "But in his second term in office, he has moved aggressively to use the immense powers of the federal government in his efforts to attack the press."

The article also noted that "both Democratic and Republican administrations have initiated leak investigations into the disclosure of classified information," while adding that "subpoenas aimed at journalists are not common" and that First Amendment advocates warn they can chill newsgathering.

Historically, Justice Department leak investigations have generally focused on the government employees or contractors who disclosed classified information rather than the journalists or news organizations that published it.

When prosecutors have sought information from journalists, they usually issue subpoenas aimed at identifying sources or gathering evidence, not to punish the act of publication itself. Still, even in those cases, the press has not taken it well. For example, the Obama Justice Department secretly obtained two months of telephone records from more than 20 AP phone lines while investigating a classified leak tied to a foiled terrorist plot. The AP called the seizure a "massive and unprecedented intrusion" into its newsgathering operations, and the move drew criticism from press freedom organizations across the political spectrum. In investigating a leak involving North Korea, Obama's Department of Justice obtained a search warrant for Fox News reporter James Rosen's emails and phone records. To obtain the warrant, an FBI affidavit described Rosen as a possible "aider, abettor and/or co-conspirator" under the Espionage Act, despite Rosen never being charged with a crime. The same administration spent years trying to compel New York Times reporter James Risen to reveal a confidential source in the prosecution of former CIA officer Jeffrey Sterling.

The Justice Department addressed the current controversy in a statement posted to X, and its language suggests officials anticipated exactly the reaction The Times delivered.

"Every administration has addressed the crime of leaking national security information," the department said. "To the extent that we have to investigate breaches of national security, that's something that we will continue to do. To be clear, reporters are not the targets, those leaking classified information are."

The statement continued, "We value and appreciate the important role that the press plays in this country, but DOJ also plays an important role to make sure that the people entrusted with our nation's secrets do what they're supposed to do with that information, which means not sharing classified information. We recognize there may always be natural tension there, but we are not going to ignore the law and stop investigating the people who work in the administration and think it's okay to leak classified information impacting national security."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 16:55

Inflection Point Overload?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Inflection Point Overload? 

Between 250th Celebrations, heat waves, power failures, and jet lag, I feel more discombobulated than I have in a long time (I do admit that I really liked a sign that I think was in PHX airport just past security – Recombobulation Area). I think that’s what I could use.

In any case, last weekend’s ProSec Mid-Year Outlook is worth checking out. We had people send us several variations of the same theme – the concept is catching on for investors and corporations even if the name isn’t (yet). 

We also published our positive take on where Compute credit spreads are headed. “Compute” is meant to capture data centers, AI, and the entire ecosystem. We are a bit more focused on the corporate bond side of things, but there are implications and ramifications on the private and project finance/structured side of the world too. We are positive on the sector for a number of reasons and will be expanding on the rationale in the coming days (or weeks, as this week’s schedule of Berlin, Munich, Rome, Dublin, and Belfast may leave little time for typing). 

While the Iran conflict may seem to be at an inflection point (the risk of escalation is back on the table), we expect this is just a move to a riskier end of the current status quo, rather than a shift in how markets should be thinking about this conflict. However, it is important to note that the U.S. strategy, with the ceasefire having been declared “over,” is shifting to a priority of re-establishing deterrence. Neil Wiley from our GIG, the former Principal Executive in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that “Iran will calculate that they can strike when it suits, confident that they can comfortably endure whatever comes back at them. In this circumstance, there is fundamentally no deterrence. I am concerned that this is now where we find ourselves. Establishing or re-establishing deterrence requires, ironically, a very disproportionate response.” This is what we have seen this week with the third strikes being launched by the U.S. on Saturday in response to yet another Iranian attack on commercial shipping in the Strait. The U.S. has both shortened the time between Iranian attacks and its strikes and increased the magnitude of its retaliatory strikes in an effort to convince Iran that it is not in its best interest to continue these attacks. We will have to see if this has the intended effect, but the message is clear: the U.S. is now hitting Iran much harder than before for allowing the IRGC to attack ships in the Strait, even if it is just rogue elements of the IRGC conducting these attacks. 

Possible Inflection Points 

AI spending. This is the most important potential inflection point for the market and the economy. Is it slowing at all? Are there bottlenecks that will slow it, even if it doesn’t want to be slowed? The market seems to oscillate back and forth. While I think the answer remains to be determined, there are many stocks in the sector down well into double digits on a percentage basis in recent weeks, so maybe the market already answered the question and we can move on? We discuss this to some degree in both the Thursday report and last weekend’s report as well. 

• Earnings. I rarely focus on earnings. About 70% of companies will beat earnings and Wall Street (checks calendar) will act surprised for the 200th quarter running! But this time I will pay more attention than usual. Last quarter, earnings really seemed to be what turned the stock market around. We can argue and nitpick that it was possibly too few sectors that really drove the earnings story (lots participated, but there were some really positive outliers). More recently, a chip company’s earnings call set the stage for the latest rebound in tech as it convincingly laid out the case for strong demand, and more importantly, committed orders for years to come. I’m not about to go all in on understanding the earnings season dynamics, but I will be paying closer attention. It is nice that many companies will combine to determine how good earnings season is for the market (for a few quarters, it all seemed to hang on NVDA). 

Russia/Ukraine. Are we nearing an inflection point here? From “how are you dressed in my office” to “sure, we can set up a Patriot missile factory in your country,” the relationship between the President and Zelensky has changed. I can’t remember the last time the President played the “droog” card with Putin. A Clockwork Orange had many “slang” words (Nadsat) based on Russian words (some argue Ukrainian), so it seemed like an appropriate time to insert a reference. In any case, the war is changing. Russia is attacking Ukraine more heavily (dangerous for Ukraine, but likely a sign of things getting worse for Russia). Increasingly, Ukraine is being allowed to follow a military plan along the lines of what our GIG would have drawn up on day 1 (there have been restrictions on what they could do, even when they had the right hardware, on top of lack of access to some hardware). Trump hinted that the U.S. now has mineral stakes in Ukraine during his recent trip. If there is a peace deal of any sort, expect opportunities for investments in Russia and Ukraine. Expect Poland to be a staging ground for many U.S. operations (corporate, investment, and military) into both Ukraine and Russia. Peace doesn’t seem close, but with both sides having more firepower, as well as their own sets of difficulties, maybe we are nearing that time? 

Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade. 

Both times we had steep declines in the USD vs JPY, we saw U.S. equity markets sell off. The summer of 2024 was linked to the carry trade, while spring of 2025 was more about tariffs and Liberation Day. Is the yen going to continue to decline? By all accounts, betting against the yen, especially after recent attempts at intervention have failed, is a popular trade (dare I say, consensus?). The case for a weaker yen makes a lot of sense, but, as a contrarian, the opportunity for a rapid appreciation seems worth paying attention to, if not betting on. 

Crypto and DATCos. Digital Asset Treasury Companies have been both a blessing and a curse to crypto. The companies certainly provided a lot of support on the way up. Some DATCos do a lot with their crypto and are heavily involved in the infrastructure of the space. Others seem to be accumulation vehicles, where their sources of funds to accumulate have grown more complex. 

There is no arguing that this administration has been pro-crypto. The enthusiasm post-2024 election is obvious. The naming of the crypto czar and an accommodating regulatory environment helped push crypto to all-time highs. It has been a “dark” time since then. While headlines have generally been positive, crypto has struggled. In recent weeks, much of the selling has been attributed to MSTR selling bitcoin to fund some of its “debt” servicing requirements (really preferreds). The “security” best known as STRC ($STRC on Twitter) has been front and center in recent angst. That security seems to have bottomed as the Strategy team has announced several steps (changing the payment schedule, increasing the dividend, and selling a larger amount of crypto to raise more USD). Have they done enough to alleviate market fears? Is this an inflection point, where the market can move beyond the current needs of some DATCos and focus on potential upside from the administration continuing to embrace crypto? Or are we headed to new lows, despite that support, which would be scary? My expectation is that the bounce we’ve seen will be short-lived, as FOMO in crypto is almost gone (very few advisors not already allocated to crypto seem that excited about the prospect at the moment). And the gambling/get-rich-quick crowd has long since moved from crypto. Watch this market as the next leg is likely to be important for overall market sentiment/cash flows. 

Inflation. Our argument for expecting rate cuts before hikes and possibly as soon as September hinges on inflation. Yes, Warsh is watching inflation. But: 

• Inflation is coming down. The classic “magician” in the room. Warsh is an inflation hawk because he expects inflation to come down. 
• While we weren’t selected for the data source task force, by all accounts his selections to run the various task forces have been met with approval. Even with the announcement, it might be too early to expect a change in which data is deemed most important by September. Given the people picked, it may take longer to establish the committee and deliver findings than I hoped or expected. 

For our view on the path of rates, we need this to be true, and we are betting on it. The market definitely has a different perception (either on the path of inflation or on how much Warsh cares about inflation) than we do. 

Bottom Line 

While many might hope for a “sleepy” July, given how frantic this year has been, with so many key markets at possible inflection points, it seems like hoping for a dull summer is wishful thinking (for those hoping to take a break from the screens). This might be one of the most consequential earnings seasons that I can remember, let alone for a summer earnings season. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 15:10

With Dismissed Lawsuits And DOE Support, Holtec Delays Palisades Nuclear Plant Restart Further

Holtec announced last week that the major refurbishment projects at Palisades are complete.

Reactor vessel inspections, head penetration replacements, steam generator tube refurbishment, primary system decontamination, and operator training all wrapped up. New fuel now sits on site, ready for loading. The company called it a "watershed moment" and shifted focus to grinding through the remaining work.

Yet there is still no restart date…

     “Holtec International remains on track to restart operations at Palisades in October 2025”

These are the comments provided by a Utility Dive article in 2025 after they spoke with Holtec’s International Director of Government Affairs and Communications Patrick O’Brien.

Needless to say, that date has passed. Starting earlier this year, the company pivoted to the vaguer line that Palisades would restart "when the plant is ready for long-term operations." CEO Kris Singh told the Financial Times he still expects the plant back this year, ahead of the March 2027 power supply contract. But "this year" is now half over with no firm schedule attached.

When the $1.5 billion DOE loan closed in 2024, expectations centered on a late 2025 restart. As the first deadline came to pass near the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, material issues, particularly with steam generators, had pushed the target into the middle of 2026. 

Each update added a few more months. Now the language has softened further into "steady progress" and "when ready." More than 5,000 individual work activities remain on the checklist. Most are described as routine maintenance, testing, inspection, and operational readiness items. 

The legal and financial pieces have at least moved forward. A federal court dismissed the environmental groups' lawsuit challenging the NRC exemption that allows a decommissioned plant to restart. 

Holtec is also preparing an IPO that multiple outlets peg at a roughly $10 billion valuation.

Palisades was always presented as the easiest restart project on the table. An existing plant on an existing site, with a recently operating license framework, the first major DOE loan guarantee, and novel NRC regulatory pathways created specifically to enable it. If any restart should have translated funding, approvals, and major refurbishment work into electrons on the grid without prolonged slippage, this was the one. 

The repeated movement of internal targets and the current shift to “when the plant is ready for long-term operations” instead makes reactor restarts look more uncertain and execution-heavy than simply licensing and building a new plant from scratch. That undercuts the core industry argument that restarts represent the lowest-risk, fastest path to new nuclear capacity.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 14:35

Clashing Over Saylor, Strategy, And Bitcoin's Biggest Risks

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Sometimes the best conversations happen after an argument.

That's exactly what unfolded this week when I sat down with fund manager Larry Lepard for a discussion that almost never happened. After disagreeing earlier in the week over my criticism of Michael Saylor, Strategy, and the company's evolving Bitcoin strategy, we decided to hash it out publicly in a podcast/debate. Stupid thing to get in the way of a friendship, right?

The result wasn't a shouting match. It was a substantive debate between two people who actually agree on more than they disagree. We both remain skeptical of today's euphoric markets. We both think most of crypto outside of Bitcoin is likely worthless. And we both believe Bitcoin deserves to be taken seriously as a macro asset.

Where we disagree is on Strategy. My argument was never that the company is headed for an imminent collapse. In fact, I acknowledged that its new Bitcoin monetization framework, dedicated cash reserves, and more disciplined capital allocation likely buy the company significant time while improving financial flexibility.

My concern is with management credibility. Earlier this year Michael Saylor insisted Strategy would not become a Bitcoin seller. Today, the company has sold Bitcoin as part of its capital management strategy while shifting its messaging toward liquidity and balance sheet flexibility. I also questioned why "Bitcoin Yield," once heavily promoted by both Saylor and CEO Phong Le, has largely disappeared from public messaging now that the metric has become less favorable. To me, consistency matters, especially when investors are being asked to trust management.

Larry's response was that I'm confusing adaptation with deception. He argued management simply adjusted after learning where the market's tolerance for leverage actually sits. Rather than signaling distress, he believes the company's new emphasis on liquidity strengthens the business and reassures investors that dividend obligations remain easily manageable.

His broader point was that the balance sheet simply doesn't support the bearish narrative. With roughly $6 billion of debt against tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin holdings, Larry believes Strategy remains well insulated, even if Bitcoin suffers another major drawdown.

I pushed back by arguing that the entire bull case rests on assumptions continuing to hold. Bitcoin has never existed alongside equity markets this expensive, nor has there ever been a corporate treasury vehicle as large as Strategy simultaneously serving as one of the market's biggest buyers while now acknowledging it can also become a seller.

Leverage changes the equation. Every preferred issue, dividend obligation, and financing decision adds another layer that depends on Bitcoin continuing to appreciate over time. If Bitcoin performs as expected, those obligations remain manageable. If it doesn't, they become increasingly important.

Larry countered that I was overly focused on downside scenarios while overlooking Bitcoin's asymmetric upside. He pointed to prior drawdowns, increasing institutional adoption, ETF ownership, and long-term network growth as evidence that Bitcoin continues following the same path it always has.

One place we found plenty of common ground was on crypto more broadly. Larry argued most of the crypto ecosystem is ultimately worthless while Bitcoin increasingly resembles digital gold. I largely agreed, though I noted that a collapse elsewhere in crypto could still create broader risk-off pressure that spills over into Bitcoin and highly levered companies like Strategy.

The biggest takeaway wasn't who won the debate. It was that markets need more conversations like this. Healthy skepticism shouldn't automatically be confused with pessimism, and pointing out risks isn't the same as predicting disaster.

Larry remains convinced Strategy is one of the market's best long-term opportunities.I remain convinced that management credibility, leverage, and changing narratives deserve scrutiny. Reasonable people can disagree. That's exactly what made the conversation worth having.

Now you can watch the full debate 100% free and decide for yourself.

(WATCH THE FULL DEBATE, 100% FREE, HERE). 

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 14:00

"The Same Monstrous Theme... Collectivism"

Authored by The Federalist Papers Project (@TheFederalist1) via X,

Ayn Rand was right when she wrote these words, and she is still right now.

“Fascism, Nazism, Communism and Socialism are only superficial variations of the same monstrous theme: collectivism.”

That is the part too many people refuse to understand.

These systems may use different slogans.

They may wave different flags. They may promise different futures.

One may speak in the language of nationalism, another in the language of equality, another in the language of compassion, another in the language of revolution.

But underneath the branding, the heart of the thing is the same.

The individual is pushed aside. The family is weakened. Faith is mocked or controlled.

Property becomes conditional. Speech becomes dangerous. And the State becomes the final authority over your life.

That is collectivism.

It always starts with beautiful promises. Free this, fair that, justice for all, power to the people. But somehow, every time, the people end up with less power and the rulers end up with more.

Why anyone would want this in America is beyond my understanding.

The only explanation that makes sense is that generations have been trained not to recognize the pattern. They were taught to hate capitalism, distrust liberty, and look to government as the answer to every problem. That did not happen by accident.

A free people cannot stay free if they forget what freedom is.

That is why this warning matters.

Rand was not saying these systems are identical in every historical detail. She was saying they all lead back to the same ugly principle, the group over the person, the State over the citizen, the collective over the individual soul.

Different heads.

Same beast.

And once that beast gets inside a nation, it does not leave quietly.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 12:50

Mexican President Seeking Legal Action Against The US Over Deaths Of Alien Migrants

Should foreign governments be allowed to support or fund lawsuits against the US government over its immigration and enforcement policies?  US sovereign immunity aside, the very idea of foreigners trying to influence American immigration law through indirect civil suits sounds insane.  Why, oh why, should Americans care what Mexico thinks?

To put the issue in context, it's important to understand that the Mexican government has been actively encouraging and enabling mass illegal immigration into the US for decades.  This strategy accomplishes a few things simultaneously:

First, the southern border acts as a steam valve for poverty stricken malcontents and criminals.  Mexican leaders like to have the option of leaving the door open to citizens crossing illegally into the US en masse because this means less mouths to feed, less strain on social services and less crime for Mexico. 

Second, the Mexican economy relies heavily on foreign remittances.  Illegals from Mexico enter the US, work under the table, then wire around $64 billion back home every year.  Mexico's annual federal welfare programs cost only $57 billion per year.  In other words, remittances from migrants in the US are bigger than Mexico's entire welfare budget.

It has become increasingly clear since Donald Trump took office in 2025 that far too many third-world countries are using the US as a cash cow for their own national economies.  And, they have been doing this primarily through illegal immigration, or, work visa and refugee loopholes.  Without Trump's migrant crackdown, this problem may have never been exposed to the wider public. 

Third, mass immigration acts as a destabilizing element in US politics and economics.  There are many socialist elements within Mexico, not to mention Central and South America, who would like to quietly sabotage the US to make way for "La Raza" - An ideological movement of Hispanic activists that wants to invade and reconquer North America. 

They aren't satisfied with simply bleeding the US for a trickle of wealth.  Rather, like any group of barbarians at the gate, they want to pillage the entire country because they live under the delusion that they're "owed" something.  This agenda, of course, relies heavily on progressive politicians staying in power in the US, which is not currently the case. 

Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday that her government plans to file criminal complaints in the U.S. regarding ​Mexican citizens who have died in immigration custody or while being targeted in anti-immigration ‌operations. The goal is to escalate these complaints while supporting civil suits. Fourteen Mexican nationals have died while in the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and three more died in arrest operations conducted by the agency, the Mexican government said.

The latest incident in Houston involved an arrest which was disrupted by a Mexican migrant who was not the original target of the operation.  Agents report that the man tried to ram them with his van while they were looking for a different suspect.    

Lorenzo Araujo, a Mexican immigrant who had lived in the United States without authorization for 35 years, was on his way to work with three other men.  When agents tried to stop the vehicle, the encounter quickly escalated when he allegedly tried to run them over.  An agent shot Mr. Araujo in the abdomen. He died at a hospital hours later.  Suspects generally only end up dead when they present a physical threat to ICE agents.   

Mexico's president intends to exploit these events as a way to rally lawfare operations.  She seems to believe that she can leverage against deportation policies by burying the Trump Administration in litigation.  She's not alone.  Democrats are also using similar tactics while ignoring the circumstances of the shootings and the self defense of immigration agents. 

Democrat Rep. Al Green says Americans are obligated to give illegal aliens protection under the Constitution: "Mr. Arajo belongs to us! He should not receive any less attention from the Constitution that I or any of you would receive!" pic.twitter.com/3rW5DFgQoA

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) July 10, 2026

When it comes to deportations, illegal immigrants do not have the same constitutional protections as American citizens.  Due process for migrants only involves identifying them as legal or illegal.  If they are illegal, then they can and should be kicked out of the country with haste.  No trial.  No jury.  No wasted time or wasted taxpayer money.

It makes no sense that Democrats under the Biden Administration can open the borders to millions of illegals without any legal checks and balances, then they demand that the Trump Administration pursue years of court cases to remove just a handful.

Meanwhile, it's obvious that Mexico's government has every reason to subvert the deportation process.  By labeling it a "human rights violation" and creating a legal fog, the Mexicans, like the Democrats, are hoping they can stall the accelerating deportations so that their economy can continue to benefit from the parasitic relationship they have with the US. 

Mexico's only goal is to create as many obstacles as possible with the expectation that Democrats will eventually return to power and open the floodgates once again.  

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 12:15

'Witness List Expanding...': A Seth Rich Scenario

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"Witness list expanding in multi-conspiracy probe out of Fort Pierce. . . ."

- Paul Sperry, Real Clear investigations.

The scene: February of 2027, a federal courtroom in Fort Pierce (St. Lucie County), Florida, the third day of trial in the RussiaGate matter.

Defendants seated on the right (from the judge’s vantage) are so numerous they require two tables, including John Brennan, James Comey, James Clapper, Andrew McCabe, Rod Rosenstein, Strzok & Page, Bruce Ohr, Lisa Monaco, Mary McCord, Christopher Wray, Marc Elias, and seven other former federal officials.

Former President Barack Obama and former Sec’y of State Hillary Clinton, named as “unindicted co-conspirators,” are not present in the courtroom for the sake of decorum. Former MI6 agent, the slippery Christopher Steele, purveyor of the infamous “dossier,” is on-the-lam, whereabouts unknown. The charges against the bunch are Seditious Conspiracy (18 U.S. Code § 2384), Conspiracy to Obstruct Justice (18 U.S.C. §§ 1503, 1512, 1519), Conspiracy Against Rights / Deprivation of Rights Under Color of Law (18 U.S.C. §§ 241, 242), Perjury (18 U.S.C. § 1621), Concealment (18 U.S.C. § 1001).

At 10:00 a.m., a “surprise” witness is ushered into the room...

Gasps erupt from all angles.

The witness is immediately identified by his snow-white hair and beard. Everybody sees it is Julian Assange. He is a surprise witness for security reasons. He has been flown from Sydney to New Delhi to Frankfurt, and finally to Miami in a US government airplane, the lone passenger.

Recall: in June 2024, Assange reached a plea deal with the US DOJ: guilty on one count of conspiring to obtain and disclose classified US national defense information. He was sentenced to sixty-two months (time served), crediting the approximately five years he had already spent in Britain’s Belmarsh prison while fighting extradition — but not counting the six years and ten months he was holed-up before that in the Ecuadorian embassy in London. There was no additional jail time, supervision, or financial penalty.

Assange is sworn and seated, led through preliminary questions as to his identity, place of residence, his former occupation running the news service known as Wikileaks, blah blah. The prosecuting federal attorney will now turn to the subject of one Seth Rich — remember him? The twenty-seven-year-old was working for the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in 2016 as Voter Expansion Data Director. At 4:00 a.m. July 10, 2016, Rich was found dead, shot twice in the back, on Flagler Place NW, in the Bloomingdale neighborhood of Washington, D.C., in what police called “a botched robbery.”

Rather bizarrely from a police procedural standpoint, Rich’s wallet, stuffed with money, his watch, and his cell phone remained on his person. Only his laptop was taken in the “robbery.” It has been a “cold,” unsolved case all these years.

Sometime before the murder, as early as Spring 2016, well before the Democratic party’s nominating convention, Assange’s Wikileaks received a large packet of information containing as many as 58,000 emails hacked out of the account of John Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman. The emails detailed many curious machinations inside the DNC that year, including sketchy efforts underway to derail Clinton’s rival, Bernie Sanders, excerpts from Clinton’s paid private Wall Street speeches (e.g., to Goldman Sachs), references to Clinton’s health problems, her private email server issue, various Clinton foundation dealings, and a lot of strange chatter about “pizza” and other mundane food items that would eventually spawn the “PizzaGate” story alluding to alleged child sex cult activities centered around John Podesta and his brother Tony.

It was quite a juicy load. But Wikileaks sat on it until just before the election. That spring and summer, Hillary was already laboring under the scandal about the private email server she had set up in her suburban Chappaqua, NY, home. She had apparently used it casually when she ran the State Department to conduct official government business, including classified information, instead of her official government email address. That itself was against the law, apart from what else the content of the Podesta email trove revealed. The FBI had been working the server case that spring, and just weeks before the convention, FBI Director Jim Comey made a big public show of exonerating Hillary, declaring incorrectly that he declined to prosecute — since it is not the FBI’s job to prosecute, only investigate, and for the DOJ to actually decide whether to prosecute. But he did add for the record that her doings had been “extremely careless.”

Anyway, Comey’s blunder became a low-grade scandal unto itself, colored by the suspicious meeting a month earlier between Bill Clinton and then Attorney General Loretta Lynch in her official airplane parked on the tarmac of the Phoenix airport. Both claimed they just talked about their grandchildren. Hence, Comey letting Hillary off the hook in July had the odor of a set-up. She was duly nominated July 26, 2016.

In October, 2016, Wikileaks began dribbling out the hacked Podesta emails they had obtained earlier that year, just in time for the election. To complicate things, the FBI and the New York City police were just then investigating former Rep. Anthony Weiner, husband of Clinton’s closest aide Huma Abedin, for sending sexually explicit messages to a minor. In the course of things, they obtained Weiner’s laptop, which was stuffed with 140,000 additional emails between Ms. Abedin and Hillary. Yikes!

On October 28, 2016 (eleven days before the election), Comey sent a letter to Congress notifying them that the FBI was reviewing these newly discovered emails to determine if they contained classified information (they did), in effect re-opening Hillary’s private server case. Comey later testified he felt obligated to inform Congress to avoid accusations of a cover-up close to the election. He called it a “no-win situation.” On November 6, 2016 (two days before Election Day), Comey announced the review found no new evidence warranting charges, reaffirming the July conclusion.

All of this intrigue revolved around the question of who, exactly, hacked those DNC emails. In June 2016, a cyber-security outfit called CrowdStrike, run by former FBI agent Shawn Henry, identified two Russian intelligence-linked groups — Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear — as responsible for the DNC hack. By that time, the Steele Dossier was already circulating between the CIA, the FBI, and the White House. The Russia collusion story (the RussiaGate hoax) was busy being born. Russia Russia Russia !!! It was all the people of the USA heard the whole four years of the first Trump term.

Which brings us forward to the courtroom scene, February, 2027, Julian Assange in the witness chair. The young lead federal prosecutor (one of several) in the room, finishes his preliminary questions and asks Assange: “Are you willing to tell the court now, who exactly was your source for the DNC emails?” Assange has kept it secret for all these years. But he had been very badly abused by some of the very US government officials who are sitting at the two defendant’s tables, and he is rather sore about all the years he had to hide out in the Ecuadorean embassy in London before the Americans induced the British authorities to stuff him in Belmarsh prison for another five.

“Yes,” he says placidly.

“It was a young man named Seth Rich. He copied it onto a thumb-drive directly from the DNC.”

And that is how all the bullshit about RussiaGate finally dissolves into a rancid cloud of sedition for the folks slumped in their seats on the defendants’ side of the courtroom.

Shout out to the valiant podcaster Mel K for pointing us in the right direction on this one.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 11:40

Ukrainian Expert Dismisses Trump Pledge On Patriot Missile License As Empty PR

President Trump's declaration from the NATO summit in Turkey this week saying that he'll give Ukraine a license to produce Patriot defense systems has been met with a lot of skepticism, both among Ukrainians and internationally. 

"We’ll give them the right to make Patriots. We’ll show them how to do it," Trump had said. "I think they can produce them pretty quickly."

via Associated Press

Zelensky seized on the opening, telling reports on Thursday, "America has recognized Ukraine as a country that is ready to do this" and urged Ukrainian and American officials to now work "without pauses" to finalize the licensing arrangements.

Immediately the Associated Press raised some relevant questions, such as: What exactly would Ukraine be allowed to produce?... also while pointing out that under the best conditions, getting such production off the ground would take 'years'. It wrote:

Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, development director of the Fly Group Ukraine defense company, said Trump’s wording was ambiguous because he referred broadly to producing “Patriots,” without specifying whether he meant missiles, launchers, radar systems, command centers or components.

Missile production alone involves a vast supply chain, Khrapchynskyi said, with hundreds of companies making parts such as control surfaces, engines, guidance systems and communications equipment.

Following this, on Saturday Ukrainian economist and financial analyst Alexey Kushch - considered an expert of Ukraine's defense production - was cited in regional media as dismissing Trump's promise as mere empty PR.

His commentary is below, featured in Russian media:

"I think that was a marketing statement," Kushch said in an interview with Novyny. Live news website, referring to Trump’s pledge. According to him, only Semi-Knocked Down (SKD) production of Patriot missiles could be launched in Ukraine, using imported components. "Such production sites should be protected," the expert explained. "The whole of Ukraine is exposed to [enemy] fire, and missiles can even reach the Transcarpathian Region," he said. According to Kushch, Patriot production could be localized in his country only after the hostilities end.

"We don’t have a [Turkish] Bayraktar plant, or [German] Rheinmetall production either here yet," he added.

As for Trump's initial comments, he had also explained that American defense firms are already building "four plants" in the US and claimed that "all of our companies will be able to do this in two to three months."

There have notoriously been immense backlogs when it comes to Patriot production, and there's said to be great global demand among US allies, especially given depletions which have come as a result of the Iran war.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 11:05

"Planet's Strongest Heat Dome" To Bake America's Heartland

What some meteorologists are calling the "planet's strongest heat dome" is set to build over America's heartland next week. Triple-digit temperatures are expected across the northern Plains, with dangerous heat pushing eastward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

"The planet's strongest heat dome will develop over the Intermountain West and Plains into next week," meteorologists Ben Noll wrote on X, adding, "This will produce rare levels of heat up to around 110 degrees in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas. On Sunday, Billings, Montana, could be hotter than Phoenix!"

The planet's strongest heat dome will develop over the Intermountain West and Plains into next week.

This will produce rare levels of heat up to around 110 degrees in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas.

On Sunday, Billings, Montana, could be hotter than Phoenix! pic.twitter.com/rM60lGjUVS

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 10, 2026

Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli also sounded the alarm, saying, "Whopper of a heat dome coming, and that's no exaggeration! In all aspects: size, longevity, and especially intensity this will be extreme. The heat dome should shatter all-time records for upper level pressure in the Northern Plain States." 

‼️ Whopper of a heat dome coming, and that’s no exaggeration! In all aspects: size, longevity, and especially intensity this will be extreme. The heat dome should shatter all-time records for upper level pressure in the Northern Plain States. Actual Temperatures (not heat index)… pic.twitter.com/C3HF7N2nbL

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 8, 2026

Bloomberg data for the Lower 48 show that forecast high temperatures will be comparable to those recorded during the last heat wave from late June into early July.

High temperatures in Washington are expected to reach 100F by midweek.

Temperatures in New York City are expected to reach the high 90s by Wednesday.

It is likely that the PJM Interconnection grid will withstand the second round of heat, as the Trump administration has made it a priority to ensure maximum power generation during hot days when cooling demand surges.

Beyond grid stability concerns during peak-load hours, attention will likely turn to agricultural markets as critical growing regions bake under extreme heat. Wheat futures in Chicago surged 3% on Friday. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 09:55

"What Makes It Even Stranger...": Trump Describes Saturday Night Phone Call With Lindsey Graham Hours Before Senator's Death

Update (1815ET):

Officially, Graham died of an aortic dissection due to Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, according to preliminary findings by the DC Medical Examiner - so who knows. An aortic dissection is characterized as a tearing of the aortic wall. 

Update (1135ET): President Trump has weighed in on Graham's death, telling Meet the Press that Graham called him in the 'early evening,' to tell Trump he was 'all set for the Save America Act,' and that it may have been the last call Graham made. 

"what makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometimes in, you know, the early evening, maybe in the 7:00's. And he called and he said, "We're all set for the Save America Act,"" Trump told host Kristen Walker. "He was pushing the Save America Act like crazy. He got back, said he just landed from Ukraine. I said, "That's a long trip to make.""

TRUMP: “What makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometime … and [Lindsey Graham] said we're all set for the Save America Act … We thought maybe we might even meet today. And then that was it.” pic.twitter.com/9YVdW3VzRM

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) July 12, 2026

Graham notably toured a top secret Ukrainian 'Skyfall' drone factory (see more below) days before his death, where the country's deadly 'Baba Yaga' Vampire bomber drones are manufactured. He also announced an upcoming Russian sanctions package, and said that the US can learn a lot from Ukraine's UAV advancements.

"I believe that it would be a huge mistake for America not to cooperate with Ukraine in the field of drones. They are ready to help us, because we were ready to support Ukraine in the most difficult times," Graham said. 

This was Lindsey Graham two days ago in Kyiv after meeting with Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/J8VW3hmXfl

— MAZE (@mazemoore) July 12, 2026

US Senator Lindsey Graham visited Ukraine's SkyFall and got a look at Vampire heavy bomber drones, Shrike FPVs and P1-SUN Shahed interceptors, plus some new tech not yet on the battlefield. Looks pretty happy holding Ukraine's P1-SUN drone in the photo. pic.twitter.com/o2gFBt657c

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 11, 2026

When asked about a replacement for Graham, Trump said "I have somebody that I think would be great. But I don't want to say it now because, you know, it's too soon with Lindsey. I don't want to even talk about anybody. But I do have somebody that I think is really good."

International Response

In reaction to Graham's death, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid tribute, describing Graham as “a true defender of freedom and of the values that make our world safer.” He highlighted that Graham had visited Ukraine ten times during the war, noting they were in constant dialogue. Zelenskyy added that Graham had been working on key initiatives in recent weeks to advance peace, including stronger sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called Graham a “true friend” and “one of the strongest voices” supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. He praised Graham for pushing to bolster sanctions on Russia and for helping provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described Graham as “a powerful advocate for America who believed strongly in the NATO Alliance” and noted that he was actively working to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

* * *

Lindsey Graham, the Republican foreign-policy hawk from South Carolina, died abruptly on Saturday following what his office described as "a brief and sudden illness," according to a statement posted on X.

"On the evening of Saturday, July 11, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham passed away from a brief and sudden illness. Senator Graham's family appreciates prayers at this time and asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period," Graham's office said.

Statement from the Office of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina). pic.twitter.com/CQ5yVvqTH1

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 12, 2026

Graham had served in the Senate since 2003 and was seeking a fifth term. He was in Kyiv on Friday touring a major drone factory before returning to Washington, where he was scheduled to appear on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday morning.

Emergency personnel responded to his home in Washington on a reported cardiac arrest on Saturday evening, according to NBC News.

President Trump commented early Sunday on Truth Social about the passing of the senator, calling him a "true American Patriot."

Trump said, "Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known, is dead! He was always working, and was a true American Patriot. Lindsey will be greatly missed!!!"

To note, Graham was on an Iranian kill list. Just days ago, Trump said if he was assassinated, then "bomb them at levels never seen before." 

At least they used a good photo of me.

Judge me by my enemies. https://t.co/Ok2Oq1v4O5 pic.twitter.com/b1RBvzKo9K

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 6, 2026

Graham was once a fierce Trump critic, denouncing him during the 2016 presidential campaign before transforming into one of his most loyal supporters. He also advocated a hard line against Iran and consistently backed a strong US military posture overseas.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 09:35