Zero Hedge

Quantum Stocks Erupt As U.S. Gov't Awards $2 Billion, Takes Equity Stakes

Quantum Stocks Erupt As U.S. Gov't Awards $2 Billion, Takes Equity Stakes

IBM and small-cap quantum names, including IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, Infleqtion, and other peers, are surging in New York premarket trading after a Wall Street Journal report said the Trump administration is preparing to award $2 billion in CHIPS Act grants to nine quantum-computing companies.

IBM is set to receive half of the $2 billion tranche, or about $1 billion, as the large-cap leader in the race to build quantum computing systems that could revolutionize national security, accelerate scientific discovery, and deliver a range of other economic benefits.

WSJ, citing the Commerce Department, outlined the companies expected to receive funding from the 2022 Chips and Science Act:

The department has agreed to give $1 billion of the package to IBM, a leader in the race to build computers that use quantum mechanics to solve problems much faster than traditional supercomputers.

. . .

IBM and other companies are working to develop specialized chips for quantum computing, a focus for the government in its bid to spur domestic supply chains. Chip maker GlobalFoundries is receiving $375 million in funding.

The rest of the firms are expected to receive $100 million, except for startup Diraq, which is slated to get $38 million.

A slew of companies pursuing various approaches to quantum are slated to be awarded funds, including publicly traded firms D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's strategy of using federal funding in exchange for equity stakes will also apply to the quantum computing companies listed above. This is similar to a series of other deals, especially in the rare earths space, including rare-earth magnet maker Vulcan Elements and mining company MP Materials.

Lutnick stated, "The Trump administration is leading the world into a new era of American innovation."

In premarket trading, IBM rose 6%, D-Wave Quantum soared 19%, Rigetti Computing jumped 15%, and IONQ up 9%.

Quantum computing benefits:

  • National security: Quantum systems could eventually break parts of today's encryption, forcing governments, banks, defense firms, and cloud providers to move toward post-quantum cybersecurity. It also has potential uses in secure communications, advanced sensing, navigation, and intelligence systems.

  • AI and scientific discovery: Quantum computing could accelerate complex simulations used in materials science, drug discovery, chemistry, energy systems, and advanced manufacturing. Combined with AI, it could shorten research cycles that currently take years.

  • Semiconductors and supply chains: The race is not only about software. It requires specialized chips, cryogenics, photonics, control systems, and advanced manufacturing capacity, making it a strategic industrial-policy priority similar to AI chips.

  • Finance and logistics: Quantum algorithms could improve optimization problems, including portfolio modeling, risk analysis, routing, supply-chain planning, and energy-grid management.

"Everybody is excited about quantum because it is the next big thing. A lot of the expectations and hopes have yet to be realized," said Dana Goward, president of the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation.

It is important to note that quantum computing remains in the early stages, is expensive, and is technically challenging.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently said that "very useful" standalone quantum computers are still roughly 15 to 20 years away.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 07:45

Futures Slump, Ignoring Korean Euphoria, After Iran Rejects Trump Enriched Uranium Demands

Futures Slump, Ignoring Korean Euphoria, After Iran Rejects Trump Enriched Uranium Demands

A steady rebound in US equities driven by peak insanity in Korea (where the two chip stocks that account for most of the market surged and sent the Kospi soaring more than 8% overnight) faded after a report that Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain in the country, rejecting Trump's key ceasefire demand, while oil and bond yields jumped as traders waited in mounting futility to see whether hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East would translate into tangible progress. As of 7:15am ET, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and Nasdaq futures slid 0.3% after otherwise very strong Nvidia’s earnings failed to ignite further strong gains in the artificial intelligence trade. Treasuries fell as Brent reversed earlier losses to climb 2% above $107 after Tehran's response disappointed those hoping for de-escalation. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon did not help, warning that interest rates may climb much further from current levels. Long-dated bonds around the world have tested multiyear highs in recent days on concern about an oil-driven spike in inflation and amid worries over government spending.

Yesterday's Nvidia earnings proved to be a dud: Nvidia shares were unchanged (crushing both put and call buyers as the implied vol collapse) in US premarket trading after the AI chipmaker reported Q1 results and gave a forecast amid increased investor skepticism. While analysts were broadly positive, some also questioned the sustainability of growth, especially amid higher competition. Intuit sank 13% after the software company said it plans to reduce its workforce by about 17%. The shares of space exploration and satellite internet companies were broadly steady after Elon Musk’s SpaceX filed publicly for an initial public offering. Tesla advanced 1.6%, while other Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Amazon +0.6%, Alphabet +0.3%, Meta -0.2%, Apple -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%).

  • Aevex Corp. (AVEX) is up 8.5% after the drone maker reported first-quarter earnings. The company also announced that it was awarded $15.6 million in contracts by the US Air Force.
  • Applied Digital (APLD) jumps 11% after the company signed a 15-year lease valued at about $7.5 billion with a US investment-grade hyperscaler for its Polaris Forge 3 campus.
  • Elf Beauty Inc. (ELF) is up 9.9% after the cosmetics company beat the average analyst estimate on major profit and revenue estimates. Meanwhile, the company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2027 that fell short of expectations.
  • Intuit (INTU) sinks 13% after the tax-preparation software company reported third-quarter results that were seen as disappointing for its TurboTax business. It also said it is cutting about 17% of its staff, confirming an earlier Reuters report.
  • Nebius (NBIS) is up 8.4% after partnering with Bloom Energy to deploy fuel-cell technology to power its AI infrastructure build-out in the US. Bloom rises 2.6%.

In other corporate news, Samsung reached a tentative last-minute deal with its union, averting a potentially crippling strike scheduled to start on Thursday at the world’s biggest memory firm.

Virtually all overnight gains in the S&P faded just after 6am when Reuters blasted the following two headlines which poured cold water on expectations of a quick deescalation in the Iran war

  • *IRAN SUPREME LEADER SAYS URANIUM MUST STAY IN IRAN: REUTERS
  • *IRAN SUPREME LEADER ISSUES DIRECTIVE ON URANIUM: REUTERS

Almost overshadowed by headlines related to AI-disrupter Anthropic and SpaceX, Nvidia’s results produced the expected high growth.  Nvidia’s revenue growth shows that the momentum of the debt-fueled AI data-center buildout is accelerating. While analysts are broadly positive, some also questioned the sustainability of growth, especially amid higher competition. Some also pointed to the company's compute revenue miss as an early warning sign, especially with Nvidia changing the way it reports revenue so it masks this weakness going forward. Nvidia's price reaction was expected to be more muted compared to the last few years - call open interest has been drifting lower. While this suggests a cooling in the speculative chase that previously defined the popular AI trade, it isn’t dimming the price action of peripheral beneficiaries - a windfall for Asian chip makers. 

“Investors remain relentless in pursuit of supernormal returns offered by AI,” said Emmanuel Valavanis, an equity sales specialist at Forte Securities, noting how narrow the market has become given a “laser beam focus on AI, the biggest tech infrastructure build-out of 21st century.”

Shortly after the Nvidia results, SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest-ever IPO, revealing billions in losses and a super-voting share plan allowing Elon Musk to keep the company under his control. SpaceX had a net loss of $4.28 billion on revenue of $4.69 billion for the first quarter, compared with a net loss of $528 million on revenue of about $4 billion a year earlier, the filing shows. 

While this will surely change, for now SpaceX is now a cash incinerating machine, with nearly $25BN in cash burn in the last 12 months.

“We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon, Mars, and beyond.” Space Exploration said in its Form S-1.

Elsewhere Jamie Dimon said interest rates may climb much higher from current levels, while his firm will likely hire more AI specialists and fewer traditional bankers as the adoption of the technology accelerate.

The muted tone in US markets contrasted with buoyant optimism in Asia, where a key tech gauge jumped the most in six weeks.

Overnight Asia saw stock market fireworks with Korea's LG Electronics and Hyundai Mobis both surging in Seoul after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang touted new opportunities offered by robots and automated vehicles. SoftBank Group Corp. jumped 20% as two companies backed by the Japanese investor - OpenAI and SB Energy Corp. - were said to be preparing for initial public offerings. Regional chipmakers tracked Wednesday’s gains in US peers.

“The rally in Asia has been supported by very strong momentum in technology, particularly around the current reality of AI demand,” said Francisco Simón, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. “Looking ahead, investors also continue to see structural growth potential linked to the future evolution of AI, including companies that may emerge as leaders.”

European shares edged higher after early declines as investors digested earnings reports and purchasing managers’ index data from across the region. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, British defense technology firm QinetiQ was among the top gainers after posting strong results and announcing a new share buyback programme, while Ubisoft slumped on weak bookings. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

  • QinetiQ shares jumped as much as 11%, the biggest daily rise in over a year, after earnings showed a profit beat and a buyback initiative.
  • Investec rallied as much as 5.3% in London to its highest intraday level since April after the specialist lender reported net income for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Generali shares rose as much as 2.9%, the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the Italian insurer reported what analysts say are strong 1Q earnings.
  • CSG shares rose as much as 5.9% after Oddo BHF upgraded the defense company to outperform from neutral, saying there is potential for significant re-rating after a short attack sent the stock plunging earlier this month.
  • Naturgy Energy Group shares gained as much as 3.4%, trading at their highest level since 2022, after receiving upgrades from Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas.
  • Alfen rose as much as 25% after a Jefferies upgrade gives it a sole buy rating, with the energy-equipment company seen favorably positioned to capitalize on the energy transition theme, with double-digit growth in all end-markets.
  • Greece’s Public Power rose as much as 6% to a record high after it concluded a share capital increase on Wednesday.
  • Hexagon shares fell as much as 18% on Thursday, their first day of trading excluding rights to the company’s upcoming spin off of its subsidiary Octave.
  • Ubisoft shares slumped as much as 19% on Thursday after the video game maker guided to a high single-digit percentage drop in net bookings for the coming fiscal year, well below expectations.
  • Convatec shares dropped as much as 5.6%, worst performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Thursday morning, after the medical products and equipment manufacturer provided an update for the first four months of 2026.
  • MaaT Pharma shares plunge as much as 61%, the most on record, after the French biotech company said its experimental therapy Xervyteg for acute graft-versus-host disease is likely to be turned down by the European Medicines Agency.
  • Autotrader falls as much as 4.8%, most since Feb. 3, after a soft earnings report which analysts said will weaken confidence in the online vehicle marketplace. The stock has lost about a fifth of its value this year.
  • Elior slumped as much as 26%, the most since November 2024, after the French catering and food services company’s first-half results came in significantly below expectations and it lowered guidance for the full year.

Investors are also getting a reading into business activity in major economies against a backdrop of rising energy costs. The data compiled by S&P Global are closely watched as they arrive early in the month and are good at revealing trends and turning points. In the UK, businesses posted the first decline in output in over a year as the Iran shock and a mounting rebellion against Prime Minister Keir Starmer hit activity in the services sector. In the euro area, activity shrank at the quickest pace in 2 1/2 years.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities snapped a four-day losing streak, with a rally in tech shares and easing Middle East tensions helping lift sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.8%, the most over a month. South Korea’s Kospi surged more than 8% to lead gains in the region after Samsung Electronics reached a tentative deal with its labor union. Shares in Taiwan and Japan also jumped. Chip heavyweights contributed the most to the Asian benchmark’s gains. Meanwhile, SoftBank Group shares soared in Japan after reports said that two of the companies it backs are preparing to list in the US.

Walmart, Ralph Lauren and Deere are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. While confident in its ability to win market share, Walmart is unlikely to raise full-year guidance given persistent uncertainties from higher fuel and freight costs, Citi said. Numbers from Take-Two and Workday follow later in the day. 

In commodities, Brent crude futures are up 2% to near $107 a barrel, erasing an earlier fall, after a report that Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad. European stocks surrendered gains and turned red on the news, while US equity futures dropped.  Precious metals extended declines. 

Bonds also sold off, with the decline in Treasuries pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.61%. European government followed suit, led lower by shorter dated maturities.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% while the Swedish krona and Aussie dollar slipped to the bottom of the G-10 FX pile, losing 0.4% each. While a resolution could put the dollar under selling pressure, conviction of a lasting peace deal is lower, ING strategists say. “The dollar’s contained reaction to Trump’s comments leaves a relatively larger scope for further downside if a deal is indeed about to be agreed,” they write in a note; “But it also confirms thinner market patience, and a new period of a stall in negotiations could end up taking DXY above the 99.50 mark even without any new military re-escalation."" At the same time significant downside in the currency may be limited given hawkish FOMC minutes on Wednesday, strategists say

Looking at today's calendar, we get Housing starts for April, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, and initial jobless claims through May 16 are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by provisional PMI data for May at 9.45 a.m. 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.3%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%,
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%,
  • DAX +0.5%,
  • CAC 40 +0.3%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis point at 4.60%
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1201.2,
  • euro little changed at $1.163
  • WTI crude -0.1% at $98.13/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening Tehran's stance on one of the main U.S. demands at peace talks. RTRS
  • Pakistan stepped up diplomatic efforts on Thursday to hasten U.S. and Iran peace talks, as Tehran said it was reviewing Washington's latest responses and President Donald Trump suggested he could wait a few days for "the right answers" from Tehran but was also willing to resume attacks on the country. RTRS
  • Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response. Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US and that "the sent text has reduced the gaps to some extent", but requires guarantees: Al Arabiya and ISNA
  • The US will open a new consulate building in Greenland, renewing concerns over Washington’s designs for the island. Protests are planned. BBG
  • Beijing is holding up a proposed visit by the Pentagon’s top policy official as China pressures Donald Trump over a $14bn weapons package for Taiwan. FT
  • The Trump administration is awarding $2 billion in grants to nine quantum-computing companies in deals that include U.S. government equity stakes. WSJ
  • Anthropic’s revenue is set to more than double to $10.9 billion in the second quarter, an explosive rate of growth that will help it turn an operating profit for the first time. WSJ
  • The RBI is considering all available options to stabilize the rupee, including an interest-rate hike, more currency swaps and raising dollars from investors overseas, people familiar said. BBG
  • Euro-area business activity shrank at the quickest pace in two and a half years, adding to fears that the Iran war and surge in energy costs are dealing a severe blow to the economy. BBG
  • The Fed proposed a new type of limited payment account to give fintech firms greater access to the US payments system. BBG

Iran

  • Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. ISNA further reported that Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US and that "the sent text has reduced the gaps to some extent", but requires guarantees.
  • "According to my sources in Tehran, Iran’s response hasn’t been handed to the Pakistani mediator. There’re ongoing deliberations, and serious efforts to reach a final draft," according to Al Jazeera's Hashem.
  • "Pakistan’s mediation efforts between US and Iran are at a crucial stage where efforts are underway to secure an agreement or a framework for comprehensive talks which can eventually lead to a ‘deal’," according to journalist Mallick.
  • Pakistani source tells Al Jazeera the Army Chief is still in Pakistan and his visit to Iran depends on the outcomes of the interior minister's visit, enriched uranium is the main sticking point in the US-Iranian negotiations.
  • Pakistan's Army Chief is to travel to Tehran on Thursday for negotiations and as part of mediation efforts between the US and Iran, ISNA reported.
  • Pakistani political and media circles point to accelerated mediation efforts after Pakistani Interior Minister's Tehran meetings, IRNA reported. The report adds that presenting a narrative that indicates that progress in negotiations between Tehran and Washington is likely.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran is pursuing talks "in good faith" but views US with "deep suspicion", Press TV reported. Confirms multiple rounds of messages have been exchanged through Pakistani intermediaries based on the 14-point proposal.
  • Iranian official said they are ready to use new weapons if the US makes an additional act of aggression again, while he said they have produced and advanced weapons inside the country that have not yet been used on the battlefield and have not yet been tested. Furthermore, the spokesman stated that in terms of equipment and defensive capabilities, they are not experiencing any shortages that would prevent the defence of the country, and this time, they do not intend to act with restraint.
  • IRGC said forces are ready to respond to any enemy aggression and all armed forces are ready with fingers on the trigger, according to SNN and Tasnim.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks mostly rallied as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, with global risk sentiment underpinned following a slide in oil prices due to increased optimism regarding a resolution to the Middle East conflict, after President Trump stated that they are in the final stages of talks with Iran. Furthermore, it was also reported that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran today to announce the achievement of a final draft agreement, while the US side gave Iran a text through a Pakistani mediator after having received Iran's 14-point text a few days ago. ASX 200 climbed higher with the gains led by outperformance in the real estate, mining and materials industries, while the index also shrugged off the weak flash PMIs and disappointing jobs data. Nikkei 225 surged higher amid the decline in energy prices and heavy buying in tech stocks, with SoftBank shares up around 20% following the earnings beat from NVIDIA, while there was a slew of data from Japan which were ultimately mixed, but included stronger-than-expected trade figures. KOSPI outperformed amid tech strength with SK Hynix surging by a double-digit percentage, while Samsung Electronics was boosted by an eleventh-hour tentative wage agreement with the labour union to avert an 18-day mass walkout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the increased liquidity effort by the PBoC, with price action rangebound and Chinese markets constrained amid weakness in energy stocks and automakers.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan's fiscal policy is proactive and not expansionary.
  • Japan's draft extra budget is reportedly around JPY 3tln, while it was also reported that Japan plans to spend JPY 500bln in reserve funds on energy measures.
  • India is said to weigh options to boost the rupee, including a rate hike, with the RBI also considering options such as currency swaps and raising dollars from overseas investors.
  • South Korea's NPS may hike domestic stock holding target by 5 percentage points amid rises in domestic stock market, Maeil reported.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are entirely but modestly in the green, ex. FTSE 100 (-0.1%). Signs of an end to the Iran war seem to be emerging, with President Trump saying the US is in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, while Al Arabiya reported that Tehran is studying the American text. The source report added that Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. Elsewhere, EZ flash PMIs disappointed, with commentary continuing to highlight stagflation worries despite ECB Lagarde’s persistence in moving away from the language. European sectors point to a positive bias. Autos (+1.2%) and Retail (+0.6%) top the sector pile while Energy (-0.2%) and Banks (-0.2%) underperform.

Top European News

  • EU Commission downgrades 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.2%), 2026 inflation revised to 3.00% (prev. 1.9%).
  • UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce cuts to food tariffs and children's bus fares on Thursday in a cost-of-living push to win back voters. It was separately reported that Reeves will not announce a proposed voluntary cap on supermarket prices for essential groceries following strong backlash from the sector, according to Financial Times. Furthermore, Politico reported that Reeves is to announce a cut to agrifood tariffs on some products and a rise in mileage rates.

FX

  • The Dollar index is unchanged on the day and returns to Thursday’s lows around 99.00 after chopping on geopolitics and soft EZ/French data. Action ultimately dictated by geopolitics, with reports recently sounding constructive and has outweighed the Dollar positive factors which incl. poor EZ PMI metrics and hawkish FOMC Minutes.
  • EUR saw decent weakness on dismal French data, which heightened the possibility of EZ-US differentials widening. French PMIs marked the steepest contraction since late 2020. Services and composite were expected to be broadly unchanged from priors, though both slipped significantly further into contraction territory. The Manufacturing picture was better, though the metric still fell into contraction. The EZ figure was also poor but provided some reprieve for the single currency. EZ Manufacturing was resilient, though still fell below expected and previous, while composite and services fell further into contraction. As the French series was released, EUR/USD saw a move c.24 pips lower to a 1.1594 trough, though pared some downside as German/EZ figures were not as bad as feared according to the indications from France.
  • JPY remains reluctant to deviate from the 159.00 mark despite hawkish remarks from BoJ's Koeda. JPY fundamentals remain bearish amid reporting around the Supplementary Budget and terms of trade. Koeda’s remarks overnight, “BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate”, mark the second non-dissenting member to indicate willingness to tighten policy (Masu+Koeda). This shows that last meeting’s 6-3 vote split will be vulnerable in June’s meeting, with the aforementioned members’ remarks indicating a possible 5-4 vote split for a hike, where interest rate futures currently imply a 77% probability of such action.

Central Banks

  • BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate in response to developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions, while she thinks the BoJ needs to continue examining the extent to which underlying inflation is anchored. Koeda said given the situation in the Middle East, she sees some possibility that underlying inflation may exceed 2% looking ahead, and noted it is reasonable for BoJ to raise the policy interest rate at an appropriate pace to address high inflation, whilst also considering the trade-offs for the economy. Furthermore, she warned that if real interest rates continue to deviate markedly in a negative direction from the natural rate of interest, unintended distortions could arise in future resource allocation, as well as stated that the BoJ should proceed steadily with normalising its balance sheet in a predictable manner, while ensuring flexibility.
  • ECB's Rehn said economy is moving towards the adverse scenario of projections; may need to raise rates to maintain credibility.
  • Norges Bank Expectations Survey (Q2): 12-month ahead CPI 3.3% (prev. 2.8%), 2026 real wages 1.1% (prev. 1.3%).

Fixed Income

  • USTs are off by a few ticks, but have been clambering off worst levels throughout the European session; currently towards the upper end of a 109-05 to 109-12 range. Wednesday saw sentiment lift amidst positive geopolitical newsflow, and this has continued into today’s session. Most recently, reports have suggested that Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US, adding that it has “reduced the gaps to some extent”. This led to some pressure in the energy complex, in turn, lifting US paper.
  • Bunds trade firmer today and towards the upper end of a 124.71 to 125.12 range. Strength today has been facilitated by a) geopolitical optimism (see above), and b) a dire set of PMI metrics. In brief, the French figures were awful, with Manufacturing surprisingly slipping into contractionary territory and Composite/Services also deteriorating; the German metrics also indicated the downbeat Manufacturing environment, but were more or less in line with expectations. The EZ-wide figure concluded that activity in the region is softening across both the Manufacturing and Services; "The survey data indicate that the euro area economy looks set to contract by 0.2% in the second quarter”. The report concludes by suggesting that price gauges suggest inflation is running close to 4%, which, alongside slowing growth, “creates a deepening dilemma for policymakers”.
  • Gilts move higher alongside the pressure in the crude complex. The region had its own PMI metrics to digest. Manufacturing remained solid whilst Services surprisingly fell into contractionary territory. UK paper was choppy in reaction to the data, but ultimately little moved – perhaps as attention turns to Chancellor Reeves, who is due to speak at 11:30 BST. Reports suggest that she will announce targeted cuts to agrifood tariffs expected to save consumers more than GBP 150mln annually. She is also expected to announce free summer bus travel for children, and a GBP 400mln package for motorists and hauliers, including a postponed 5p fuel duty rise. Political analysts view her speech as an attempt to secure herself as the Labour Party’s long-term chancellor in the midst of recent political turmoil

Commodities

  • In geopolitics, US President Trump said Iran talks were in the “final stages” but warned the US could get “a little bit nasty” if no deal is reached, while stressing sanctions relief would only come after an agreement. Iran said dialogue was continuing around its 14-point proposal, but rejected surrender, ultimatums or deadlines. Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response.
  • WTI and Brent crude futures are moving lower following the aforementioned constructive geopolitical headlines. WTI Jul briefly topped USD 100/bbl before returning under the level, currently in a USD 97.29-100.11/bbl range. Brent Jul resides in a 103.68-106.80/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF is now softer by over 1%, with downticks also seen in light of the constructive US-Iran commentary.
  • Spot gold is contained to a USD 4,512-4,570/oz range, on a modestly softer footing intraday but off extremes as the yellow metal moves in lockstep with the USD, which is influenced by energy prices. Spot silver found intraday resistance at USD 77/bbl before printing a USD 74.67/oz low.
  • Base metals are lower despite the broader optimism from the US-Iran relatively flat DXY at the time of writing, whilst PMI data in Europe pointed to an overall bleak picture, with the data pointing to contractions in the EZ and the UK. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,477.65- 13,713.40/t range.
  • ADNOC said that while it can ramp up its oil production in a matter of weeks, it will take 4 months for oil flows through Hormuz to return to 80% of pre-war levels.
  • China raises gas and diesel prices by CNY 75 and CNY 70 per ton, respectively, from May 22nd.
  • UAE's new pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly around 50% complete.
  • Goldman Sachs said global oil stockpiles fell at a record pace of 8.7mln bpd so far in May, while it added that physical markets continue to tighten with estimated oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remaining at a very low 5% of normal.

Geopolitics

  • Ukraine’s Drone Forces commander said Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s Syzran oil refinery (147k-170k capacity) in the Samara region of Russia.
  • US Defence Undersecretary Colby may visit China ahead of a possible trip by Pentagon chief Hegseth amid tension over Taiwan arms sales, SCMP reported.
  • US deployed the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in a show of force as President Trump pressures Cuba, according to NYT.
  • US President Trump said on Wednesday he would speak with Taiwan's President Lai in an unprecedented move for a US leader that could roil US relations with China, according to The Guardian.
  • Beijing is reportedly holding up a proposed visit by a Pentagon top policy official as China pressures US President Trump regarding a USD 14bln arms sale to Taiwan, according to FT.
  • Chinese President Xi may visit North Korea by as early as next week, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: United States May 16 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 211k
  • 8:30 am: United States May 9 Continuing Claims, est. 1786k, prior 1782k
  • 8:30 am: United States May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 17.8, prior 26.7
  • 8:30 am: United States Apr Housing Starts, est. 1410k, prior 1502k
  • 8:30 am: United States Apr P Building Permits, est. 1384k, prior 1363k
  • 9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.8, prior 54.5
  • 9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.2, prior 51
  • 9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 51.8, prior 51.7

Central Banks

  • 11:20 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Chicago Radio Interview
  • 12:20 pm: United States Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday’s positive market mood has continued into Asian hours this morning, with the Kospi (+8.08%) and Nikkei (+3.58%) surging via a tech rally even as Nvidia’s eagerly awaited earnings drew a mixed response last night. This follows yesterday’s +1.08% gain for the S&P 500 on increased investor optimism that a US-Iran deal might materialise, leading to sharp declines for Brent crude (-5.63%) and a reversal in Treasury yields (-8.1bps on 10yr).

Starting with Nvidia, the chipmaker reported 85% yoy sales growth to $81.6bn last quarter and projected revenue of around $91bn in the current quarter (vs. $87.4bn est.). Despite the impressive growth and a 75% gross margin, that moderate sales guidance beat drew a lukewarm response from investors. Nvidia’s shares slipped by about 1% in post-market trading after a +1.30% gain yesterday that took it to a +19.8% gain YTD.

Futures on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are flat this morning following Nvidia’s results, but this comes after markets steamed ahead yesterday as the anticipation of good news on Iran brought oil prices and yields lower. The S&P 500 (+1.08%) rose for the first time in four sessions, with chipmakers and technology companies leading the way ahead of Nvidia’s results. The Philly Stock Exchange Index (+4.49%) rebounded strongly, with the Nasdaq (+1.54%) and the Magnificent-7 (+1.34%) also posting sizeable gains. European indices also rebounded, with the Stoxx 600 (+1.46%), CAC 40 (+1.70%), FTSE 100 (+0.99%) and DAX (+1.38%) all posting strong gains.

That positivity has carried over into Asian markets this morning. Japan’s Nikkei is up +3.58%, with Softbank surging +19.85% boosted by its roughly 13% stake in OpenAI as the WSJ reported that OpenAI is preparing to file an IPO in the coming days or weeks. Adrian Cox has written a quick note here on this overnight, putting the fundraising in some perspective. It would be double the previous largest IPO in history. Elsewhere, Korea’s KOSPI is soaring +8.08% with the likes of LG Electronics up +25.97% following Nvidia CEO Huang’s earnings call comments about the upside for physical AI and robotics. 8 stocks in the index are up by more than 15% as I type. Samsung (+5.35%) is also advancing strongly after reaching a tentative deal with its labour union to avoid a strike. The ASX is +1.63% higher but Chinese risk is broadly flat.

Before all that, it was rising optimism that the US and Iran might reach a deal that boosted markets yesterday. President Trump said that the US was in the “final stages” for a possible draft deal to end the conflict. Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iran is reviewing the new draft US sent to Tehran in response to its 14-point proposal, while Axios reported that Trump and Israel’s Netanyahu had a tense call on Tuesday over the new peace proposal drafted by Qatar and Pakistan. That said, Trump did also threaten escalation, saying “We’ll either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty”. But overall investors jumped on potential, with Brent crude falling -5.63% to $105.02/bbl, whilst the 6-month ahead future fell -3.96% to $88.24/bbl. Brent is back up a modest +0.89% overnight.  
The decline in oil helped Treasury yields retreat from Tuesday’s highs. The 10yr yield fell -8.1bps to 4.59%, though that still leaves it +23bps above where it was on May 8. The bond rally was led by breakevens, especially at the front-end, with the 1yr US inflation swap falling -13.9bps to 3.24%. Long-dated real yields also declined after the sharp repricing over the past week, with 30yr nominal (-5.8bps) and real (-5.7bps) yields retreating from post-GFC highs.

While the rates rally dominated the day, the minutes of this month’s FOMC meeting showed officials growing more open to the potential need to raise rates. In particular, a “majority of participants highlighted… that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent”, with “many” officials calling for the Fed to drop its easing bias as a result. As a reminder, three of the voting FOMC members had dissented in favour of dropping the bias.

European government bonds also saw significant relief, with yields on 10yr bunds down -9.6bps to 3.09%, while OATs (-11.2bps) and BTPs (-13.6bps) saw double digit declines amid the decline in oil prices. Those moves came as the final Euro Area April CPI was in-line with the flash reading at +3.0% y/y.

Here in the UK gilts outperformed after a big miss on April headline inflation (2.8% y/y vs 3.0% y/y expected). This was largely driven by weaker services inflation, which rose 3.2% y/y (vs 3.5% expected and down from 4.5% in March), though core CPI (2.5% y/y vs 2.6%) saw a more moderate downside miss. So combined with the global rally, that helped 10yr gilt yields to fall by -14.1bps to 4.99%, whilst the number of hikes priced in for the BoE in 2026 eased from 61bps to 47bps.

In overnight data, we’ve seen the first of the May flash PMI releases. The composite PMI declined in both Australia (from 50.4 to 47.8) and in Japan (from 52.2 to 51.1). Both manufacturing and services PMIs saw a deterioration, but it is services that led the decline, falling to 47.7 in Australia and a 14-month low of 50.0 in Japan. Meanwhile, Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.3% to 4.5% in April, marking its highest level since November 2021. The amount of further RBA hikes priced by year-end has declined from 34bps to 25bps following the data. In contrast, Japan trade figures were unexpectedly resilient in April, with +14.8% year-on-year export growth (vs. +9.2% expected) driving the economy to a third consecutive monthly trade surplus at ¥302bn, significantly outperforming expectations for a marginal deficit.

Flash PMIs will remain in focus later today, with the Eurozone, Germany, France, UK and US releases due. Other US data today includes weekly initial jobless claims (our economists expect these to edge slightly lower to 209k from 211k), the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, as well as April housing starts and building permits. In the Eurozone, we’ll also have May consumer confidence and the March current account data. Central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Villeroy and BoE’s Taylor. Notable earnings include Walmart and Generali.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 07:38

Kremlin Blasts 'Borderline Crazy' Threat From Baltic NATO State

Kremlin Blasts 'Borderline Crazy' Threat From Baltic NATO State

Russia has express outrage and condemnation of what it has on Wednesday denounced as a "borderline crazy threat" from NATO member Lithuania.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys in an interview this week with Neue Zurcher Zeitung provocatively stated that NATO is capable of destroying all Russian bases located in Kaliningrad if necessary.

via MSC

"We have to show the Russians that we're capable of penetrating the small fortress they've built in Kaliningrad," he said of the Russian exclave. "NATO has the capability, if necessary, to raze Russian air defenses and missile bases there to the ground."

Russia's RT has published the Kremlin response as follows:

Recent threats directed at Russia’s Kaliningrad Region by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys are “borderline crazy” and reflect a “maniacal” hostility toward Russia among Lithuania’s leadership, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

“This anti-Russian sentiment makes them blind, prevents them from thinking about the future and from acting in the interests of their nations,” Peskov said, referring to political elites in all three Baltic states.

Later in the day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed Peskov’s remarks, arguing that Western officials resort to such hostile rhetoric to assert their relevance. “But unlike the philosopher [Rene Descartes] who said ‘I think, therefore I am’ these people simply are,” the diplomat joked.

As for his other hawkish comments in the interview, the Lithuanian top diplomat strongly suggested the Ukraine war could spread deep into Europe, saying that should the frontline in Ukraine collapse, the consequences would be felt not only across NATO's eastern flank but throughout the entire European Union.

"The idea that a conflict with Moscow would only affect Russia's immediate neighbors is a dangerous misconception. It's part of Russian propaganda," Budrys said.

"If the frontline collapses, everything collapses - the EU, the economy, social order," he added. "There isn’t a single safe haven in Western Europe that would escape the consequences of war. We must finally quantify the cost of a lack of deterrence honestly."

Source: EuroNews

As a reminder, Kaliningrad is surrounded by Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east, which makes Moscow naturally alarmed whenever Polish or Lithuanian officials spew forth threats related to the exclave, which is Russian sovereign territory. However, Europe has also been fearful over the significant military assets and radar capability that Russia has stationed there.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 07:20

KOSPI, Samsung Soar After 11th-Hour Union Deal Averts Chip Strike; Workers Eye $340k Bonuses

KOSPI, Samsung Soar After 11th-Hour Union Deal Averts Chip Strike; Workers Eye $340k Bonuses

South Korea's benchmark KOSPI jumped overnight after Samsung Electronics reached a tentative wage-and-bonus agreement with its main labor union, neutralizing the immediate risk of a paralyzing strike at the world's largest memory-chip producer.

The wage-and-bonus deal removes a major supply-chain threat in an already tight memory market, where AI data center buildouts have driven surging demand, soaring prices, and heightened procurement risk across global semiconductor supply chains.

Here are the key points of the Samsung-union deal reached in the 11th hour of negotiations:

  • Samsung will introduce a new 10-year performance bonus system for its semiconductor division.

  • Plan links worker bonuses to profitability, with ambitious profit targets of 200 trillion won annually from 2026-28 and 100 trillion won annually from 2029-35.

  • Bonus pool will be funded by 10.5% of performance and paid in stock after tax.

  • Employees can sell 1/3 of the shares immediately, while the rest must be held for up to 2 years.

  • Samsung also agreed to an average wage increase of 6.2%, improved child support payments, and expanded housing loans.

Based on Bloomberg calculations, Samsung's 78,000 semiconductor workers could receive an average bonus of about 513 million won, or $340,000, depending on final profit levels and individual allocation. That would be more than triple the company's average employee pay of 158 million won in 2025.

Local outlet Yonhap estimates suggest workers in the memory division could receive even larger payouts, potentially around 600 million won per person, though the company does not disclose exact staffing levels by chip segment.

Samsung's union told workers they will be able to vote on the proposed 2026 wage and bonus agreement on Saturday morning.

Putting the wage deal to a vote averted a massive general strike at Samsung today, leading to optimism in the markets.

"HK shares traded directionally lower today, with optimism resurging in memory-heavy markets. Samsung's deal with the labor union brought fresh optimism with Kospi jumping by +8%, and understandably fueling some rotation out of HK/China," Goldman analyst Shubham Ghosh told clients.

KOSPI

Samsung

Barclays analyst Bumki Son noted, "As Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are now competing for global talents, competitive compensation packages are well warranted."

Earlier this month, the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea warned, "There are mounting concerns that any significant production disruptions or operational uncertainty at Samsung Electronics could place additional strain on the global memory semiconductor market, potentially worsening supply bottlenecks, price volatility, procurement uncertainty, and broader supply chain instability."

All eyes are on the union vote this weekend that extends into next week.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 06:55

Residents Of UK Town Forced To Form 'Vigilante' Security Team To Protect Women And Kids From Migrants

Residents Of UK Town Forced To Form 'Vigilante' Security Team To Protect Women And Kids From Migrants

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Residents of a quiet East Sussex town have been left with no choice but to patrol their own streets after the leftist Labour government dumped hundreds of unvetted male migrants into a former army camp on their doorstep.

Crowborough, a small community of around 20,000 people, is now home to a volunteer security force called Crowborough Aware. With 81 vetted locals stepping up, the group is conducting regular patrols to deter trouble and keep women and children safe.

This is the direct result of years of open borders policies that have seen tiny, peaceful towns turned into testing grounds for mass migration.

The breaking point came when six migrants surrounded a member of the public. That incident pushed locals into action.

The post continues, “Some are calling them vigilantes. Why? “Because the treasonous UK Government have just moved over 500 unknown military age fighting Men into their small town & they are trying to prevent the horrific headlines that are seen daily in every corner of the country from happening there.”

A GB News reporter spoke directly to members of the new patrol group. One volunteer stated clearly: “We are a visible presence to provide safety and security. We are a deterrent.”

The group is not hunting trouble—they are preventing it in a town the government abandoned.

This is Britain in 2026: a small town of 20,000 forced to form a patrol group to protect women and children from hundreds of illegal migrants the government planted there as it abandoned British people to fend for themselves.

The town’s residents have been orderly protesting for months, describing themselves as “petrified,” installing extra security and questioning why their community—historically used to train British soldiers—was being repurposed without consultation.

A local woman named Lucy called into a radio show and encapsulated the mood: “I just know that a load of women and young girls are walking around even in the day with alarms. They’ve taken self-defence classes… It’s scaring all women.”

Instead of addressing those legitimate safety concerns, some local officials doubled down on absurdity. In February, Green Party councillor Anne Cross announced she was taking her young grandchildren to hand-deliver handmade Valentine’s cards to the adult male migrants at the camp.

“There is nothing like getting to know people and hearing their stories in order to dispel fear,” she claimed, insisting there was “no evidence children or women are at a higher risk from people seeking asylum”

The Home Office has moved around 350 single adult male asylum seekers into the Crowborough Training Camp since January, with capacity for more. Migrants can leave the site, creating what locals call a “village within a village.” Police have increased presence following incidents, but residents say it is not enough.

Why does the government keep targeting small, 95% white villages and towns like Crowborough for these placements?

It is almost as if the goal is to engineer the maximum possible cultural upheaval in the shortest time.

Peaceful communities with low crime and strong social cohesion are suddenly expected to absorb hundreds of unknown military-age men from vastly different backgrounds, with no meaningful vetting or integration plan.

The pattern repeats across the country—tiny places with limited resources and policing get flooded while officials lecture residents about “misinformation” and “fear.” The result is exactly what we see now: locals forced to organise their own security.

Crowborough Aware’s patrols are a visible sign that British communities are no longer waiting for Westminster to wake up. They are acting to protect their own.

The government’s response—more accommodation sites, more dismissals of local concerns—only confirms what more people are realising: the people must look after themselves when the state refuses to do its most basic job.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 06:30

The Growing Burden Of Old-Age Dependency

The Growing Burden Of Old-Age Dependency

Many countries around the world are facing a rapidly rising old-age dependency ratio, according to projections published in the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, this indicator measures the number of people aged 65 and older relative to the working-age population (between 15 and 64 years old).

South Korea is expected to experience a particularly steep increase, with the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age adults projected to jump from 31.2 in 2026 to 75.6 by 2050.

The Growing Burden of Old-Age Dependency | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Italy is also forecast to see a dramatic rise, climbing from 40.7 to 70.4. These figures underscore the accelerating pace of global population ageing, which will result in a growing economic burden on shrinking workforces.

Established industrial economies such as the United States are projected to age more gradually, with the old-age dependency ratio rising from 29.3 to 37.9 over the same period.

By comparison, China is expected to undergo a particularly rapid demographic shift, with its ratio more than doubling from 21.6 to 52.3.

India and several younger emerging economies are forecast to remain comparatively youthful despite moderate increases.

These UN projections are based on certain trends in birth rates, life expectancy and migration.

If these trends continue, ageing populations are likely to put increasing pressure on labor markets, pension systems and public finances, requiring governments to adapt their policies to older populations.

It's important to note that this data does not account for the fact that many people over the age of 65 are still working, and younger people will not all be working.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:45

Dubai's Shipping Hub Status Under Pressure As Some Industry Veterans Eye Greece

Dubai's Shipping Hub Status Under Pressure As Some Industry Veterans Eye Greece

Via Middle East Eye

Some shipping industry workers based in Dubai are looking to relocate from the UAE as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, one ship-owner and two industry sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.

Western expats working in the maritime industry are eyeing the Greek capital, Athens , and Cyprus as potential alternatives to Dubai, given those countries' dominant positions in shipping and the favorable tax policies they offer the industry, the sources said.

via AFP

The search for alternatives to Dubai underscores how some expats, particularly westerners with easy access to Europe, do not expect the Gulf to return to its pre-war position anytime soon.

Around 2,000 vessels are trapped in the Gulf as a result of competing US and Iranian blockades of the waterway. But the shipping industry is experiencing a boom as a result of the war. The lockdown of vessels has compressed supply, and rates are soaring as energy corridors are rewired. 

US oil and gas exports have hit record highs as a result of the war. But the transit time from the US Gulf coast to Asia is substantially longer than the journey from the Arabian Gulf. 

Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks the price of crude oil tanker rates, is up 240 percent since the war on Iran started. 

The industry's good fortune stands in stark contrast to the UAE's maritime sector, which has been pummeled by the blockade. 

The Gulf state turned itself into the dominant logistics hub for the Middle East, Asia and Africa. The port of Jebel Ali is one of the largest in the world, and is a major hub for transhipment, where goods are transferred from one vessel to another before their final destination.

The UAE's top export, oil, has also been cut by more than half as a result of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

"It’s not so much the slowdown in business, but the unreliability of Dubai as a hub. Can you count on a flight back to London or Paris for your family during war?" the ship owner said to Middle East Eye.

'Thousands' of Dubai real estate offices to close

Dubai benefited potentially more than any other city in the world from the post-Covid boom of soaring asset prices, cryptocurrency, and remote work.

Capitalizing on its low corporate tax rate, zero income tax or capital gains tax, and smooth bureaucracy, it became a magnet for London bankers and American "finance bros". Its financial institutions have served as a haven for Sudanese militia leaders dealing in gold to Russian and Ukrainian expats fleeing war in Eastern Europe.

But very few are willing to write Dubai off the map, particularly given the UAE's deep pockets, yet there are some signs that the war has pulled a curtain over its tremendous boom years.

Arabian Business reported on Wednesday that thousands of real estate agencies in Dubai may close in the coming months due to the war. A leading property search platform said that up to 30 percent of the agencies active on its site could shutter within the next five to six months.

As with western expats, where the war is filtering out those most committed to Dubai, the real estate agencies most likely to close are smaller operators or those that focused on speculative ends of the market, such as off-plan sales.

Arabian Business cited Lewis Allsopp, the chairman and co-founder of Allsopp & Allsopp, a real estate consultancy, as saying that Dubai’s ratio of brokers to residents is close to 1,000 per 100,000. For comparison, London has around 176 brokers per 100,000 people.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:00

UK Leads European Nations In Hiring Over-50s

UK Leads European Nations In Hiring Over-50s

Over the past two decades, ageing populations, rising retirement ages and higher education levels have contributed to rising employment rates among workers aged 55 and over across OECD countries. Yet many workplaces are still designed around shorter careers, leading many people to leave work earlier than they need or want to. This deepens the demographic pressures facing ageing societies, including labor shortages, as early exits reduce the number of employees and inflate public welfare and healthcare costs.

The OECD argues that employers play a decisive role in enabling longer working lives through hiring practices, access to training, job quality and workplace conditions. To help organizations assess and improve their approach, the OECD recently launched a Longevity Readiness Tool, which benchmarks policies and practices across sectors and countries to identify where action is most needed.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, the data reveals wide differences in how countries support older workers. In hiring, the United Kingdom ranked highest in Europe in 2023, with people aged 50 and over accounting for roughly 12 percent of new hires. Finland followed at 9 percent, while Denmark and Estonia each recorded 6 percent. Poland ranked lowest at just 2 percent.

UK Leads European Nations in Hiring Over-50s | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

By industry, the category of accommodation and food services hired the largest share of older workers at 11 percent, followed by administration and support services at 9 percent, while education lagged behind at only 3 percent.

Training opportunities also varied significantly across OECD nations.

In New Zealand, 49 percent of surveyed employees aged 50 to 65 said they had participated in employer-funded training programs, marking the highest share recorded. The United States followed at 48 percent and Czechia at 43 percent, while South Korea ranked lowest at just 5 percent.

Job autonomy showed similar disparities. In Japan, 92 percent of workers aged 50 to 65 reported having some control over the pace of their work, compared with only 61 percent in Sweden.

An OECD paper notes that hiring rates among older workers are shaped by several factors. Although wages and benefits often rise with age, productivity does not always increase at the same pace. At the same time, evidence suggests multigenerational workforces can strengthen productivity through knowledge transfer and accumulated experience.

Older applicants also continue to face age discrimination (particularly women), alongside employer concerns about adaptability, tenure and technological skills.

However, the OECD argues these barriers can be addressed through better training, fairer compensation structures and policies aimed at reducing age-related bias in recruitment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 04:15

UK Police Log One-Year-Old Baby As Crime Suspect; Hundreds Of Kids Flagged For Offences

UK Police Log One-Year-Old Baby As Crime Suspect; Hundreds Of Kids Flagged For Offences Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

A one-year-old baby girl has been officially recorded as a crime suspect by Kent Police after allegedly causing a minor injury to another toddler. This is part of a shocking tally where 683 children under 10 were reported for offences over three years.

This isn't some isolated bureaucratic error. It's the latest symptom of a system that treats tiny children as miniature criminals or budding bigots while real threats from failed integration and ideological grooming go unaddressed.

None of these under-10s can be prosecuted - the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales is 10 - yet police are dutifully logging every playground scrape, tantrum, or alleged slight under ridiculous Home Office rules.

Figures obtained via Freedom of Information request reveal the scale: six two-year-olds, 11 three-year-olds, and 20 four-year-olds among the suspects. Boys made up over three-quarters of cases, with violence against others the top category. There were also 130 'sexual offences' involving children under nine.

Kent County Council cabinet member for children's services, Councillor Paul Webb, called the numbers "not great" but stressed early intervention through prevention programmes. He pointed to county lines drug gangs recruiting vulnerable kids, especially those in care, as a major driver.

Kent Police Chief Superintendent Rob Marsh explained that reports come from victims, families, schools, and agencies, with the focus on safeguarding rather than punishment: prevention, education, and family support.

This toddler-as-suspect absurdity doesn't emerge in a vacuum. It mirrors the broader UK push to turn nurseries, schools, and playgrounds into surveillance hubs for ideological compliance.

Just weeks ago, nurseries in Wales were urged to report "racist" toddlers to police under a £1.3 million taxpayer-funded scheme.

Childcare workers receive training to spot and log "hate incidents" by children barely out of nappies, complete with audits for "diversity" and lessons on "white privilege."

The guidance from Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL) at Cardiff Metropolitan University explicitly frames toddler squabbles as potential hate crimes warranting 999 calls.

Meanwhile, schools in Sheffield and elsewhere are pushing radical race doctrine claiming "Black people cannot be racist" towards white people because they supposedly lack "power."

Materials for seven-year-olds hammer home "white privilege" and demand kids monitor their language and report peers.

Related efforts include schools pressured over "Islamophobic" children's drawings that could be deemed blasphemous under Islamic law, books celebrating small boat migrants and telling kids there's "plenty of room" for unlimited crossings, government pushes to snitch on "anti-Muslim hostility," and even a video game flagging kids who question mass migration as potential extremists.

The pattern is clear: British children's innocence is collateral damage in the drive to enforce woke orthodoxy and cultural replacement.

Add in the 2025 case of a toddler under four expelled from nursery for "transphobia" - likely just innocent curiosity - and the picture is complete.

While authorities obsess over logging baby "assaults" and policing toddler speech, genuine safeguarding issues fester.

Child-on-child sexual abuse is a recognised national concern requiring police referral regardless of age. County lines exploitation preys on the vulnerable.

Yet the response often defaults to bureaucratic box-ticking and ideological reprogramming rather than addressing root causes like family breakdown, open borders straining social services, and education systems more focused on dividing kids by race than teaching right from wrong.

Critics are right to call this Orwellian. Toddlers cannot meaningfully hold racist or transphobic beliefs - they lack the cognitive framework.

Projecting adult political neuroses onto them turns childhood into a minefield of potential reports and exclusions. It erodes parental authority and normal development in favour of state-approved conformity.

This is the inevitable endpoint of a cultural shift that prioritises grievance hierarchies, mass demographic change without integration, and "anti-racism" that actually fosters resentment.

Parents see their kids labelled suspects or bigots for normal behaviour while institutions bend over backwards to accommodate sensitivities that clash with British norms.

The solution starts with rejecting this madness. Reclaim education for basics like reading, maths, and personal responsibility. Prioritise actual child protection over ideological score-settling. Push back against the surveillance state treating every playground as a crime scene or re-education camp.

British children deserve a childhood free from this nonsense - one rooted in reality, freedom, and common sense.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 03:30

Where Inflation Is Highest In Europe In 2026

Where Inflation Is Highest In Europe In 2026

Inflation has eased from its recent peaks, but price growth remains stubbornly high across much of Europe.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, ranks 36 European countries by annual inflation rate, using the latest available 2026 data from Eurostat and the UK Parliament.

Annual inflation measures how much consumer prices have risen over the previous 12 months, such as from April 2025 to April 2026.

Where Inflation is Highest in Early 2026 in Europe

Romania has the highest inflation rate in Europe at 9.0%, followed by Kosovo at 6.5% and Bulgaria at 6.2%. Several of the highest-inflation countries are in Southeastern Europe, highlighting how price pressures remain especially elevated in parts of the region.

This data table ranks European countries by their annual inflation rates as of early 2026.

Romania, the largest economy in Southeastern Europe, faces a crisis on three fronts: high inflation, a multi-month economic recession, and a protracted political crisis that imperils governmental efforts to rein in the country’s fiscal deficit, the largest in Europe.

Inflation in recent months has climbed not only because of food and fuel prices, but also due to rising rents.

Inflation is equally politically sensitive in neighboring Bulgaria, given the country’s recent adoption of the euro in January 2026. Many in the country had feared that joining the eurozone would contribute to rising prices for everyday goods.

The Success Stories of Europe

The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank all maintain a 2% inflation target. Only four European countries fall within this target range as of March 2026: Czechia and Sweden (1.5%), Denmark (1%), and Switzerland (0.6%).

Interestingly, none of these countries use the euro as their national currency, although both the Czech Republic and Sweden are theoretically expected to join the eurozone upon satisfying certain criteria. Denmark has negotiated an opt-out.

Switzerland’s inflation rate is not only the lowest in Europe, but also among the lowest worldwide. The small Alpine country has successfully navigated international turbulence without seeing large-scale price increases.

It has also managed to avoid deflation (negative inflation), another key part of the Swiss National Bank’s mandate.

Inflation in Europe’s Major Economies

The major European economies today each grapple with inflation rates above the targets set by the ECB and other central banks.

France (2.5%), Germany (2.9%), and the United Kingdom (3.3%) are all facing substantial cost-of-living increases, driven partly by rising energy prices linked to geopolitical conflicts such as the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Persistent inflation has also kept cost-of-living pressures high, making price stability a central political issue across many of Europe’s largest economies.

Wondering where rising prices can be seen most clearly? Check out Where Inflation Has Hit the Hardest (2000–2025) on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 02:45

Norway Wants To Lead A "Viking Bloc" For Containing Russia In Northern Europe

Norway Wants To Lead A "Viking Bloc" For Containing Russia In Northern Europe

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

It can simultaneously threaten Russia along the increasingly interconnected Arctic and Baltic fronts.

Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolai Korchunov gave a brief interview to TASS about bilateral relations. He warned that Norway is integrating new NATO members Sweden and Finland into the bloc’s regional plans. More American military bases and NATO facilities are opening up there too. To make matters worse, 32,500 troops from 14 NATO countries in last March’s “Cold Response” military drills in Norway and Finland’s northern regions, which add to growing NATO threats to Russia from this direction.

NATO’s militarization of the Arctic, which also includes artificially engineered tensions over the demilitarized Svalbard Archipelago, is proceeding in parallel with its militarization of the Baltic.

Korchunov believes that this raises the risk of the bloc one day attempting to blockade Russia. He reassured his compatriots that the authorities will defend their country’s interests, however, including through military-technical means in an allusion to new naval escorts of some commercial vessels.

In connection with blockade scenarios, Korchunov was asked about TASS’ report from early April about how “Ukraine readies terrorist attacks on Russian ships off coast of Norway”, which he said caused quite a stir in his host country. He didn’t elaborate on how exactly Russia plans to deter or defend against potential Ukrainian drone attacks from Norway, but he ominously warned that escalating threats to Russia from Norway “will inevitably lead to a directly proportional increase in risks for Norway itself.”

Korchunov wasn’t asked about it in his interview, but the week prior to its release, the UK announced that it’ll lead a new multilateral naval initiative against Russia with Norway and eight others. This goes to show Norway’s growing role in threatening Russia through blockade scenarios, whether they’re in its neighboring Arctic region and/or the nearby Baltic one. As a founding member of NATO, Norway seems to believe that this obligates it to lead Russia’s containment in Northern Europe.

To that end, it’s functioning as Sweden and Finland’s “big brother” in NATO while actively cooperating with the UK, one of Russia’s historical nemeses. This enables Norway to simultaneously advance Russia’s containment along the increasingly interconnected Arctic and Baltic fronts. Given its oil wealth, Norway could also extend military loans to its “little brothers” for accelerating their military buildups and the subsequent creation of a northern regional command against Russia as part of the US’ “NATO 3.0” plans.

The preceding insight draws attention to one of the ways in which multipolarity is reshaping Europe, namely through the trend of regional military integration, whether it’s Norway wanting to lead a nascent “Viking Bloc” or Poland trying to restore its lost Great Power status in Central and Eastern Europe. The Anglo-American Axis is managing this division of military-strategic labor, with the US being the senior partner and the UK being the junior one, and they plan to replicate this model elsewhere in Eurasia.

Apart from Norway and Poland’s regional military blocs, Romania provides this duopoly with reach into Moldova and the Black Sea, while Turkiye expands their influence in the Black Sea but also the South Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and Central Asia via the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”. There’s also AUKUS+, which could prospectively include Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and even Indonesia. The emerging result is “The Globalization of NATO” with multipolar characteristics.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 02:00

The Pentagon's Next Critical Minerals Source Is Already In Its Own Warehouses

The Pentagon's Next Critical Minerals Source Is Already In Its Own Warehouses

Authored by Matt Bedingfield via RealClearDefenseolitics,

Last week, U.S. Navy destroyers began escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom, the most aggressive American action in the strait since Iran shut it down in March.

The naval blockade of Iranian ports is now in its fifth week. U.S. warships are running mine-clearance operations, intercepting Iranian-flagged cargo, and absorbing drone threats daily. And the permanent magnets in those destroyers' guidance systems are still refined in China. So are the rare earths in their radar arrays and the cobalt in their battery backups. The war just proved what the 2027 DFARS deadline already assumed: we cannot fight a conflict while depending on an adversary for the materials inside our own weapons.

And the Pentagon's largest untapped source of those materials is already sitting in its own warehouses.

The Pentagon has a multi-year backlog of classified electronics it can't destroy fast enough. It also has a critical minerals shortage it can't solve fast enough. The copper, gold, palladium, silver, and tin locked inside those warehoused devices are exactly the metals it's spending billions to source elsewhere. That elsewhere, increasingly, can't be China. Beginning January 1, 2027, the Pentagon can no longer enter contracts for materials mined, refined, or separated in China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea.

The Numbers Don’t Work

The United States generates roughly eight million metric tons of e-waste every year, and the number is climbing. AI infrastructure is accelerating the cycle. Data centers replace server hardware every three to five years. Each generation of defense electronics contains more critical minerals than the last.

Only about 15 percent of U.S. e-waste gets recycled. And that figure hides a deeper problem. The printed circuit boards inside those devices, the components richest in strategic metals, are almost entirely exported overseas for processing. None of the recovered metals stay here without first leaving.

Washington isn't ignoring it. Project Vault, the administration's $12 billion critical minerals stockpile, is a serious commitment. The Department of Energy just opened a $500 million funding opportunity for domestic critical minerals recycling. There's talk of export restrictions on raw e-waste. But before we build a fence around these materials, we first need something inside it: the domestic capacity to process them onshore.

If an export ban went into effect tomorrow, we'd pile up a mountain of e-waste with no way to recover what's inside. That's the capability gap. New mines take a decade to permit. Traditional smelters cost a billion dollars and take seven to ten years to build. Neither delivers the batch-level traceability federal compliance now demands. The 2027 deadline will not wait.

A Faster Path Already Exists

A new generation of hydrometallurgical processing, including biosorption, can recover high-purity metals from end-of-life electronics at commercial scale without the footprint of a smelter. These facilities can be built in about 15 months for roughly $40 million each. They maintain full chain of custody from waste stream to refined metal. And the upstream supply chain already exists: some 900 certified e-waste recyclers operate across the country today. What's missing is the domestic processing capacity to keep those metals here.

This isn't theoretical. My company, Mint Innovation, proved the model last month when HP announced the PC industry's first certified closed-loop recycled copper. Copper recovered from HP's own end-of-life circuit boards, independently certified, placed back into new HP products. The same technology can close the loop for the Department of War. Add mobile destruction units that process classified hardware on site, feeding directly into domestic metal recovery with no offshore processing, and the result is full auditability from destruction to refined metal.

When I testified before Congress on this issue, not a single member pushed back on the diagnosis. This is one of those rare problems that doesn't break along party lines. The FY 2026 NDAA recognized the potential of recycled-material pathways by expanding exceptions within DFARS sourcing restrictions. Congress has opened the door. The Pentagon needs to walk through it.

A Framework Is Already in Place

The United States doesn't have to do this alone. The State Department's Pax Silica initiative and the February 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial established a framework for allied cooperation with Japan, Australia, the U.K., South Korea, and others. Five Eyes nations are already coordinating to counter Chinese price manipulation and build friendshored supply chains. Domestic e-waste processing fits squarely into that strategy. A modular biosorption facility built in the U.S. today becomes a template Pax Silica partners can replicate tomorrow.

Modular secure destruction facilities co-located on military installations could clear classified hardware backlogs and recover critical minerals simultaneously. A security liability becomes a strategic asset.

The fastest way to build a domestic critical minerals supply chain is to recover the metals already here. The Pentagon is sitting on both the problem and the solution.

*  *  *

Matt Bedingfield is President of Mint Innovation, a recycling technology company that recovers critical minerals from electronic waste using proprietary biosorption and hydrometallurgical processing. Mint partnered with HP earlier this year to produce the PC industry's first certified closed-loop recycled copper.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 23:25

BBC Report Portrays Islamic Child Slavery In Afghanistan As Necessary

BBC Report Portrays Islamic Child Slavery In Afghanistan As Necessary

Anti-immigration movements in the US and Europe have been saying it for years:  The Islamic world is barbaric and backwards, built on archaic ideas that are completely antithetical to western values.  Yet, progressive governments and their media allies continue in their attempts to portray these cultures as "the same", or, as sympathetic. 

The historical Islamic justification for child marriage comes from the story in the Hadith of Muhammad's marriage to a 6-year-old girl named Aisha, which he consummated when she turned age 9.  Apologists often claim this is limited to the poor rural backwaters of places like Afghanistan, but it is common in Iran, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq and even Egypt.  And, in many cases these children are sold into marriage in exchange for monetary compensation or property.

In a recent BBC report from journalists in Afghanistan child marriages are examined in dark detail, yet, the BBC seems to place more sympathy on the parents (fathers) selling their daughters for coin while ignoring the grotesque nature of the tradition.  In other words, blame the economic circumstances, not the parents doing the selling. 

However, this narrative glosses over the fact that child sex slavery is a longstanding problem in Muslim culture, not a new trend spurred on by recent economic distress.  The outlet presents the families selling children as sympathetic, suggesting that the children will be sold, likely into a life of sexual abuse, but at least they will still be alive.

No blame is places on the fathers who are either too incompetent or too lazy to secure the basic needs of their own children.  And no blame is placed on the culture which normalizes the practice.  In fact, the BBC diverts blame to the loss of foreign funding from outside governments and NGOs.  

This is a thinly veiled propaganda hit by the BBC.  Afghanistan received substantial funding from the US through the now defunct USAID institution under the Biden Administration.  USAID dispersed nearly $4 billion to Afghanistan from 2021 to 2025 until it was shut down by Trump and DOGE.  The message seems to be "This is Trump's fault".  

Keep in mind, Biden abruptly pulled all troops and private contractors out of Afghanistan in 2021, allowing the Taliban to retake government power and inflict the oppressive theocratic authoritarianism that leads to the conditions the BBC dramatically outlines.  Little girls not being allowed to go to school is a direct result of Sharia Law, which is a direct result of Biden leaving Afghanistan in Taliban hands (along with billions of dollars in US military equipment).  

Thus, the only value of girls in the Afghan economy is as slaves for sale.  The worst part is that, in many cases, these girls are sold for marriage to relatives.  Meaning, they will eventually be forced to bear children through inbreeding.

Only 15 years ago this behavior was widely admonished in the western media.  Today, it is shielded with spin in the name of protecting the multicultural agenda.

The most interesting aspect of the BBC report is the way in which they build a narrative of distraction rather than addressing the cultural elephant in the room.  Their goal was apparently to showcase the dire effects of foreign funding cuts, but they ended up proving once again why the west should have nothing to do with the third world.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 23:00

Washington State Under Federal Investigation For Housing Men In Women's Prisons

Washington State Under Federal Investigation For Housing Men In Women's Prisons

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced May 19 that its agents have launched an investigation into Washington State’s practice of housing male inmates in women’s prisons.

Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson speaks during a news conference outside the Northwest ICE Processing Center in Tacoma, Wash. on April 28, 2026. Nick Wagner/The Seattle Times via AP

Gov. Bob Ferguson was notified in writing of the federal probe into an alleged pattern of “violating the constitutional rights of female prisoners incarcerated at the Washington Corrections Center for Women in Gig Harbor, Washington,” the DOJ stated.

The investigation is based on allegations that the prison has failed to protect female prisoners from sexual assaults, rape, voyeurism, and sexual intimidation by males who identify as females housed with them at the facility.

Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division said the practice would be a violation of the prisoners’ Eighth Amendment protections from cruel and unusual punishment.

“Under my leadership, the Civil Rights Division will not allow women incarcerated in jails or prisons to be subject to unconstitutional risks of harm from male inmates,” Dhillon said in a statement. “The constitutional rights of women cannot be sacrificed at the altar of appeasing unsupported and dangerous ideologies.”

The Washington State Department of Corrections adopted a policy in 2020 to allow men who identify as transgender to request a transfer to women’s facilities. The policy requires housing accommodations for inmates who are transgender, intersex, and gender-neutral to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

The state is one of a small number of states to adopt similar policies. Maine, California, New York, Minnesota, and New Jersey also allow people who identify as transgender to be housed in a prison that matches their choice in gender. California and Maine were notified in March that their policies were also under investigation.

The DOJ said it was also collecting information from the public on men housed in women’s jails and prisons anywhere in the country as part of a wider investigation.

Investigating transgender prison policies is part of the Trump administration’s program to eliminate “gender ideology extremism and restore biological truth to the federal government,” which was an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in 2025.

The DOJ plans to review policies at the Washington prison and the Department of Corrections, and any evidence that has been reported. Federal investigators will work with the state to remedy any violations, according to the letter.

The investigation comes weeks after the America First Policy Institute, a right-leaning nonprofit think tank, filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s corrections policy, alleging it has led to violence, sexual abuse, intimidation, and fear among female inmates.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon, accompanied by her aides, speaks at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025.  Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The complaint was filed on behalf of the Foundation Against Intolerance and Racism, Fair for All, Inc., and Faith Booher-Smith, an inmate who was allegedly violently attacked by a transgender inmate at the prison in 2025.

In the lawsuit, the plaintiffs claim female inmates have been forced to share cells, showers, bathrooms, and other intimate living spaces with male inmates, stripping them of the sex-based protections of a women’s prison.

“A women’s prison is supposed to protect women,” said Leigh Ann O’Neill, chief legal affairs officer at the institute. “Washington’s policy turned that basic duty on its head.”

The Washington governor’s office did not return a request for comment about the investigation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 22:35

1 In 5 Jobs Faces High Risk Of AI Automation

1 In 5 Jobs Faces High Risk Of AI Automation

As concerns about AI-driven job losses grow, new research sheds light on how artificial intelligence could impact the U.S. labor market in the short term.

According to an OpenAI framework analyzing how AI affects different occupations, published last April, nearly half of all jobs (46 percent) are expected to see little immediate change, while around 24 percent are likely to be reorganized as tasks shift rather than disappear.

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiaut shows in the chart below, a smaller but still significant share of roles face more direct disruption, with roughly one in five jobs (18 percent) categorized as being at high risk of automation.

One in Five U.S. Jobs Faces High Risk of AI Automation | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the same time, only about 12 percent of roles could actually grow with AI, as lower costs and increased productivity expand demand for certain services.

The findings suggest that exposure to AI does not automatically translate into job losses. Instead, outcomes depend on factors such as how essential human input remains and whether increased demand for a product or service is sufficient to offset lower labor demand from efficiency gains.

In many cases, AI is therefore likely to reshape tasks and workflows rather than eliminate entire occupations.

While other recent studies have pointed to a higher risk for job displacement, OpenAI’s analysis suggests a more nuanced picture of how the labor market may evolve.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 22:10

Could Deep Blue California Elect A Republican Governor?

Could Deep Blue California Elect A Republican Governor?

Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times,

As tensions mount in the high stakes race for California governor, early results show Republicans have returned more than 905,000 ballots ahead of the June 2 primary election—a massive surge compared with the last governor’s race during the 2022 midterms.

Ballots from Republicans made up 37 percent of the early ballot returns—up 11 percent from four years ago at this point in the primary process, while those from Democratic voters have dropped by 13 percent, according to a Political Data (PDI) poll released on May 16.

Most of the ballots submitted so far—54 percent—were cast by voters 65 and older, while about 10 percent of voters ages 18-34 have returned early ballots.

The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Republican Steve Hilton, a political commentator, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary, essentially tied, each with about 20 percent of the vote, followed by Democratic billionaire and environmental activist Tom Steyer at 14 percent and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco with 13 percent. The rest of the candidates show less than 10 percent support.

Hilton has publicly pressured Bianco to drop out of the race to avoid splitting the Republican vote, ensuring that at least one GOP candidate—himself—advances to the general election. But at the CBS-hosted televised debate on April 28, Bianco rejected the notion, saying he and Hilton will both be on the Nov. 3 ballot.

‘Break the Glass’ Strategy

Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is terming out, told reporters at his recent state budget presentation he’s confident a Democrat will be on the Nov. 3 ballot.

Newsom alluded to a “break the glass” strategy to prevent a Democrat lockout in the nonpartisan, jungle primary, which allows the possibility of two Republicans—no Democrats—on the general election ballot.

“I don’t anticipate this need to be the case, but there’s a like break-the-glass scenario,” he said. “There’s many people that have a deep understanding of what it would look like if Democrats were locked out, and we’re going to do everything to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

The Democratic Governors Association has recently sent out mailers positioning Hilton as the top GOP threat, which could drive Bianco supporters to Hilton, making it more likely for a Democrat to finish in the top two.

“The Democrats wouldn’t be spending money trying to help Steve if they weren’t scared of me,” Bianco posted on X.

Steve Hilton speaks during a gubernatorial candidate forum in Sacramento on April 14, 2026. Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP Photo

Democratic Strategy Favors Hilton

Rob Pyers, a nonpartisan political analyst and research director for California Target Book, suggested the Democrats prefer to run against Hilton.

“The Democratic Governors Association really wants GOP voters to know that Steve Hilton is ‘Endorsed by Trump’ and ‘Pro MAGA’, and that they would be devastated if he advanced out of California’s top two primary alongside a Democrat,” Rob Pyers wrote on X.

When Amy Reichert, a San Diego based conservative activist, asked if the mailer from the Democrats was only mailed to Republicans to bump Hilton to the top two spot, Pyers said that “appears to be the case.”

Pyers replied that the “attack ads” contain “language tailored to appeal to conservative primary voters and to highlight Hilton’s Trump endorsement.

He noted that a Democrat versus Democrat race “would suck up hundreds of millions of dollars” that could be spent elsewhere.

“A D vs R race, not so much,” he wrote.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco fields questions from reporters and students following the California Governor’s Debate hosted by CBS at Pomona College in Claremont, Calif., on April 28, 2026. Brad Jones/The Epoch Times

Bianco’s Response

Bianco said in a text message to The Epoch Times on May 18 that Californians are voting differently in this election because they’re tired of dishonesty and corruption and “are absolutely sick of politicians rigging the system for their own benefit.”

“Newsom has never said one word in the past when two Democrats have moved on to the general elections,” he said.

“Saying the corrupt part out loud, exposing their plans to again rig the system, is exactly why people are voting different,” he said.

Corruption Scandal

As Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary during the Biden administration, Becerra has come under fire from critics who blamed him for putting migrant children at risk of trafficking when the agency lost track of 85,000 migrant children.

During his tenure at HHS from March 19, 2021, to Jan. 20, 2025, Becerra also faced scrutiny over tenuous ties to a corruption scandal involving his former aide Sean McCluskie, who pleaded guilty to his role in an alleged scheme to skim funds from a dormant campaign account for a “no-show” job for his wife.

A Fair Political Practices Commission (FPPC) complaint against Becerra over the alleged violation of state campaign finance laws remains open and unresolved. The complaint hinges on Becerra’s dormant state Attorney General campaign funds, which were allegedly used to pay out tens of thousands of dollars to his former adviser’s firm months after Becerra was appointed HHS secretary.

Political consultant Dana Williamson, Newsom’s former chief of staff, has also pleaded guilty in the case, admitting to conspiracy to commit bank fraud and wire fraud, subscribing to a false tax return, and making false statements to a federal agent.

California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra at a campaign event in Los Angeles on April 18, 2026. Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

Becerra has not been charged with any crimes or been accused of any wrongdoing related to the federal investigation, and has repeatedly denied any knowledge of illegal campaign fund transfers.

He also faced scorn over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some recent polls, including an Emerson poll, show Becerra with a slight lead while others show Hilton is the frontrunner.

Becerra surged into the lead among Democratic voters when disgraced then-congressman Eric Swalwell dropped out of the governor’s race in April amid sexual assault allegations. Swalwell resigned from Congress about a week later. Swalwell is under investigation but no criminal charges have been filed to date.

Official primary ballots list 61 candidates for governor, including Swalwell and former state controller Betty Yee, who has also dropped out of the race.

Political Predictions

According to Polymarket, an online betting house which claims 90-percent accuracy in predicting event outcomes one month ahead and 94 percent four hours before an event, the odds favor Becerra with a 58 percent chance of winning the election in a Democrat versus Democrat race in the Nov. 3 election followed by Steyer with a 28 percent chance. Hilton is ranked with a 10 percent chance and Bianco at 3 percent as of May 18.

Source: Polymarket

The Cook Political Report shows the California governor race as “Solid D” with partisan voter index score of “D +12,” which means the state, on average , is 12 percentage points more Democratic than the rest of the nation and indicates that statewide Democratic candidates have an entrenched advantage.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also shows the California governorship as “Safe D.”

Tom Steyer speaks during a gubernatorial candidate forum on Latino and immigrant communities in Sacramento on April 14, 2026. Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP Photo

Campaign Finances

According to Transparency USA, as of May 19, Becerra was running a $3.3 million campaign deficit, taking in about $6.3 million in donations but spending more than $9.6 million. His campaign spending is mainly attributed to aggressive advertising.

A billionaire environmental activist, Steyer has raised about $134 million and spent about $255 million, He is on track to outspend Meg Whitman, a former eBay executive, who set a $159 million campaign spending record in her unsuccessful bid for governor in 2010.

Steyer’s wealth stems mainly from hedge fund investments in fossil fuels and private prisons, which his political opponents have used against him despite his progressive bent.

Steyer is facing an FPPC investigation over allegations his campaign paid social media influencers to post promotional videos without including legally required sponsored content disclosures.

Hilton has raised about $9.8 million and spent about $8.9 million, while Bianco has raised about $5.3 million and spent about $4.2 million.

The Issues

Several lively debates have drawn the national media spotlight on hot-button issues including the high cost of living in California—especially housing, tuition, and state taxes on gasoline—and ongoing problems with homelessness, the drug crisis, crime and public safety, and illegal immigration.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 21:45

Several States Contest Federal Orders Keeping Coal-Fired Power Plants Open

Several States Contest Federal Orders Keeping Coal-Fired Power Plants Open

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A three-judge federal appeals panel is expected to issue a decision by year’s end on a lawsuit challenging Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s May 2025 emergency order that prevented a Michigan utility from closing a 64-year-old coal-fired power plant.

The R.M. Schahfer Generating Station’s two-coal fired electricity generators in Wheatfield, Indiana, built in 1983 and 1986, were scheduled to close on Dec. 31, 2025, but remain operating under emergency orders issued by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Northern Indiana Public Service Company

How the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia rules in Michigan v. DOE after hearing May 15 oral arguments could prove precedential in deciding three similar cases–including two before the same court. It could also resolve a May 9 lawsuit filed in Seattle’s U.S. District Court by 16 Democratic state attorneys general who claim the emergency that President Donald Trump declared in his January 2025 National Energy Emergency executive order doesn’t exist.

Wright has issued five 2025 emergency orders under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act mandating that decades-old coal-fired generators in Michigan, Washington, Indiana, and Colorado, slated to be shut down by utilities, must continue operating or, at least, remain operable. This would assure that regional transmission electrical grids have the baseload capacity to provide enough power during extreme winter and summer weather stresses, the orders say.

The secretary maintains he has the authority to do so under the president’s National Energy Emergency declaration and his April 2025 executive orders supporting the coal industry and strengthening the nation’s electrical grid.

Wright, in public comments and in Fiscal Year 2027 budget hearings, maintains that the orders—90-day emergency mandates he’s repeatedly reissued—have prevented the retirement of more than 17 gigawatts of coal-powered generation, enough electricity to power up to 17 million homes. He has said that renewable energies encouraged by the Biden administration and some Democrat-led states are weather-dependent, costly, and reliant on imported materials, including from China.

Had he not issued the emergency orders to keep the Michigan and two Indiana coal-fired plants open through this winter, “People would have died” during January and February storms, he said during an April 21 Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing.

“We pushed the grid to the edge. Coal kept things alive,” Wright said. “If we don’t extend the life of these coal plants, we will continue to have ruinous rises in our electricity prices [and] will not be able to meet the challenge of re-shored manufacturing and winning the AI race against China.”

Congressional Democrats say those orders have cost the nation’s electricity customers more than $500 million, noting the five aging plants are not operating at significant capacity. Among the claims made in lawsuits challenging the mandates—including by Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota in the case heard May 15—is that the federal government is exceeding its authority by dictating to local utilities which energy source they choose.

While each plant and closure is different, they share similarities, and the fallout from the rulings could boost or derail the Trump administration’s campaign to revive the nation’s coal industry.

The J.H. Campbell coal-fired power plant in Ottawa County, Mich., was scheduled to close on May 31, 2025, but remains operating at least through June 2026 under emergency orders issued by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Consumers Energy Michigan: J.H. Campbell

The J.H. Campbell power plant in West Olive, Michigan, operated by Consumers Energy, a subsidiary of CMS Energy, opened in 1962. It was scheduled to shut down on May 31, 2025, and be replaced by a plant fueled with a combination of natural gas, renewable energies, and battery storage in Covert, Michigan.

Eight days before the closure, Wright issued an emergency order directing Consumers Energy and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which provides electricity for 223 utilities serving 45 million people across 15 states, to keep the plant open for 90 days. It was the first of a succession of 90-day orders that have kept the three-unit plant open since.

Wright’s order said that keeping the plant open was necessary “to minimize risk of blackouts and address critical grid security issues in the Midwestern region of the United States ahead of the high electricity demand expected this summer.”

The 2,000-acre coal-fired plant was being shuttered 15 years before the end of its “scheduled design life,” the order stated, citing a North American Electric Reliability Corporation 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment warning that MISO’s grid was at “elevated risk” of shortfalls during summer peaks. It also cited MISO’s own forecast that acknowledged “potential for elevated risk during extreme weather.”

The Michigan Public Service Commission and Michigan Attorney General’s office, along with national environmental groups and local consumer advocates, maintain that the aging plant is unnecessary and imposes higher costs on utility customers. The state and consumer organizations, along with Illinois and Minnesota, faced off with federal regulators in the May 15 hearing in Washington.

According to CMS Energy’s regulatory filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company maintains that between June 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, it cost $290 million to pay for coal shipped from Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, along with maintenance and salaries to keep the plant open, often at single-digit capacity.

That expense was offset by selling $155 million in electricity to utilities across 11 states within MISO’s grid. Overall, CMS Energy tabulates that it has incurred $180 million in operating losses—about $631,000 per day.

Consumers Energy has petitioned the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for permission to recoup $135 million from MISO ratepayers and is seeking to recover $43 million from the Department of Energy in costs incurred to comply with the federal order.

Wright maintains that the costs of keeping Campbell and other coal-fired plants open are outweighed by the risks, including potential loss of life, when electricity goes out, especially in winter.

He said Campbell “was integral in stabilizing the grid,” providing 650 megawatts a day of electricity—enough power for 600,000 homes—during Winter Storm Fern, from Jan. 21 to Feb. 1.

“Beautiful, clean coal was the MVP of recent winter storms,” he said in a February statement. “Hundreds of American lives have likely been saved because of President Trump’s actions saving America’s coal plants, including this Michigan coal plant, which ran daily during Winter Storm Fern.”

Canada-based TransAlta planned to convert its coal-fired Centralia Generating Station Unit 2 in Centralia, Wash., to natural gas by 2028, but cannot begin the process until at least June 2026 under an emergency order requiring it to continue operating the plant with coal. TransAlta Washington: Centralia

Wright issued an emergency order on Dec. 16, 2025, mandating that TransAlta keep its coal-fired Centralia Generating Station Unit 2 operating beyond its planned Dec. 31 closure.

The Centralia plant is “essential” for the Northwest’s grid stability, he said in the order, referring to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2025-26 Winter Reliability Assessment, which determined that the region was at “elevated risk” of power shortages during extreme weather, including cold snaps. Wright extended the order in March by another 90 days through June 14.

Canada-based TransAlta in April filed a cost recovery application with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, claiming it cost between $20 million and $23 million to purchase and ship coal from Peabody Energy’s Spring Creek Mine in Montana and Rawhide Mine in Wyoming to keep the 53-year-old plant operating during the 87 days before March 16.

The company said the order derailed its plan with Puget Sound Energy to convert the plant to natural gas by 2028.

Washington Attorney General Nick Brown, in March, asked the U.S. Ninth Circuit of Appeals to reject Wright’s order while also filing a lawsuit in Seattle’s U.S. District Court challenging the legality of the action and claiming no grid emergency in the region.

Two Indiana utilities are incurring millions in costs operating aging, coal-fired power plants under a federal emergency order. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

Also in March, Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson signed House Bill 2367, which eliminates “preferential treatment related to coal-fired electric generating plants,” revokes cap-and-invest exemptions for coal plants, and ends tax exemptions on coal used at the Centralia plant.

Indiana: Schahfer, Culley

On Dec. 23, 2025, Wright issued an order preventing the planned Dec. 31, 2025, closures of two coal-fired units at the R.M. Schahfer power plant in Wheatfield, Indiana, operated by Northern Indiana Public Service Co., and the coal-fired F.B. Culley power plant near Newburgh, Indiana, operated by CenterPoint Energy.

That 90-day emergency order was renewed in March, requiring Schahfer’s two coal-fired units—built in 1983 and 1986—and Culley to remain operable at least through June 21.

Among the reasons Wright cited in the emergency order for keeping the plants operable, if not fully operating, was the same strain on MISO’s grid to which he referred in his Michigan order.

The December order also noted that it’s difficult for coal-fired generators “to resume operations once they have been retired.”

During a March 24 hearing before the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, Northern Indiana Public Service Co. President Vince Parisi said that keeping Schahfer’s two coal-fired units open cost the utility “in excess of $100 million.”

One of the two coal-fired units ordered to remain operable had been shuttered since summer and remained offline, he said.

CenterPoint President Michael Roeder said during the hearing that it had cost his utility at least $18 million to keep its F.B. Culley Unit 2 plant operating during the first three months of the year.

In his March 23 order extending the emergency another 90 days, Wright said that during Winter Storm Fern, Schahfer generated more than 285 megawatts daily and Culley pushed 30 megawatts a day into MISO’s stressed grid.

R.M. Schahfer gets its coal primarily from Wyoming’s Powder River Basin and, to a lesser extent, the Illinois Basin. Culley’s coal is shipped from Oaktown mines southwest in Indiana’s Knox County.

The Sierra Club, among other environmental groups and local consumer advocate organizations, in April filed a lawsuit in Washington arguing that Wright’s orders are federal overreach. The suit is similar to Michigan’s challenge, and, as with that case, the attorneys general of Illinois and Minnesota have also signed on.

The Craig Station Units 1 and 2 coal-fired electricity generating plants in Craig, Col., were built in 1974. Unit 1 was set to close on Dec. 31, 2025, but will be operating at least through June under a federal emergency order. Platte River Power Authority Colorado: Craig

On Dec. 30, 2025, Wright issued an emergency order directing Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, the Platte River Power Authority, Salt River Project, PacifiCorp., and Xcel Energy’s Public Service Company of Colorado to ensure that the Craig Station Unit 1 coal-fired plant in Craig, Colo., “remains available to operate.”

Citing the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment for Colorado and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Wright said, “I determined the [council’s] area faced a significant amount of retiring baseload generation resources and has concerns in meeting demand.”

Keeping Craig Unit 1 online “would help prevent the loss of power to homes and businesses that would otherwise pose a risk to public health and safety,” he wrote.

The plant, built in 1974, was scheduled to shut down on Dec. 31. On March 30, the order was extended for another 90 days.

Craig, around 200 miles northwest of Denver with a Census 2020 population of about 9,000, was a major energy hub in the 1970s-80s for the Western Area Power Administration’s Rocky Mountain Region and Southwest Power Pool regional grid because of its nearby coal mines, including Trapper Mine.

The four owners of the two coal-fired plants within the three-unit power complex in north-central Colorado had planned the closures since 2016.

Tri-State, a not-for-profit electricity wholesaler owned by the 43 cooperatives and municipal power districts, and Platte River, a nonprofit utility operator, said the coal-fired plants were no longer needed, their generation exceeded by new solar and wind developments.

They filed a Jan. 29 petition asking the Department of Energy to reconsider the order, claiming they’re being forced to impose costs on ratepayers. They called the federal action an “uncompensated taking” of their property in violation of the Constitution’s Fifth Amendment.

A December 2025 analysis by Grid Strategies calculates that it could cost $85 million to $150 million annually to keep Craig 1 operating, in addition to concurrent expenses in operating new wind, solar, and transmission projects.

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser and a coalition of environmental groups, including the Sierra Club and Earthjustice, have challenged the emergency order, filing a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., claiming it is an abuse of emergency authority and will unjustly inflate Coloradans’ electric bills.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 19:15

SpaceX Files For Nasdaq IPO Under Symbol SPCX

SpaceX Files For Nasdaq IPO Under Symbol SPCX

Update (1650ET): As expected, SpaceX filed its S1.

The stock is expected to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker “SPCX.”

No specific share count, price range, or total offering size is finalized yet (placeholders are used).

But, with expectations of a $1.5 trillion market cap, that means SPCX will trade at a 77x LTM Revenue multiple!

Mission and Overview

  • SpaceX's mission is to make life multiplanetary, advance scientific understanding of the universe, and extend consciousness to the stars. It positions itself as a vertically integrated builder across Space, Connectivity (Starlink), and AI (via xAI acquisition).

  • The company has revolutionized space access with reusable rockets (Falcon family, Starship development), built the world's largest LEO satellite constellation for broadband, and is scaling AI compute and frontier models (Grok) with real-time data from X.

Key Corporate Details

  • Dual-class structure: Class A (1 vote/share) and Class B (10 votes/share). Elon Musk (founder, CEO, CTO, Chairman) will retain dominant voting control post-IPO (majority of the board via Class B and overall voting power), making SpaceX a “controlled company” under Nasdaq rules.

  • Basis of presentation: Financials include retrospective recasts for the xAI acquisition (Feb 2026) and X Holdings (via xAI, 2025), plus a 5-for-1 stock split (May 2026).

  • Underwriters: Led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and others.

Consolidated Financial Highlights (preliminary/selected):

  • Q1 2026: Revenue $4.69B, operating loss $1.94B, Adjusted EBITDA $1.13B.

  • FY 2025: Revenue $18.67B, operating loss $2.59B, Adjusted EBITDA $6.58B.

  • Heavy capex (especially AI) and Starship R&D; Starlink (Connectivity) is the current profit engine.

Business Segments (as of/through Q1 2026 and FY 2025)

Space (launches, Dragon, Starship development):

  • Dominant global launch provider (>80% of mass-to-orbit in recent years, >99% Falcon success rate).

  • Key vehicles: Falcon 9 (reusable, ~23t to LEO), Falcon Heavy (~64t), Dragon (cargo/crew to ISS), Starship (in testing, targeting full reusability and massive scale).

  • Revenue: $619M (Q1 2026), $4.1B (2025). Still investing heavily in R&D/Starship.

Connectivity (Starlink):

  • ~9,600 broadband/mobile satellites in LEO (~10.3M subscribers across 164 countries/territories as of Mar 31, 2026).

  • High-speed, low-latency broadband (median ~225 Mbps peak for residential); expanding enterprise, government, maritime/aviation, and satellite-to-mobile (direct-to-phone, ~650 dedicated satellites, ~7.4M devices in ~30 countries).

  • Strong growth: Revenue $3.26B (Q1 2026), $11.4B (2025, +~50% YoY); highly profitable at segment level.

AI (xAI/Grok/X integration):

  • Gigawatt-scale terrestrial AI training clusters (e.g., COLOSSUS); plans for orbital AI compute satellites (using solar power, starting ~2028).

  • Grok frontier models (truth-seeking, strong scientific reasoning benchmarks); integrated with X (~1.3B supported accounts, 550M MAUs, hundreds of millions of daily posts).

  • Revenue $818M (Q1 2026), $3.2B (2025), but heavy losses due to compute/infrastructure investments.

Here's the financials visualized (xAI is represented by the green slabs)...

Free cash flow struggling under the weight of that giant green slabs...

So, xAI is the giant money suck while Starlink keeps the engine running (but despite breaking out in 2025, Starlink user growth seems to be slowing a little):

Finally, one thing that stood out was that Anthropic is paying xAI $1.25BN per month (through May 2029) to utilize 'Colossus' for AI compute.

Musk took to X to explain further his vision for this segment:

As the recently expanded partnership with Anthropic demonstrates, SpaceX is offering AI compute as a service at significant scale.

We are in discussions with other companies to do the same. 

Over time, especially with orbital data centers, we expect to serve AI at extremely high scale.

If you build it (in space), they will come?

Read the full 270-page S1 here...

*  *  *

Ahead of Thursday's scheduled launch of SpaceX's Starship V3 rocket, there are indications that Elon Musk's rocket and AI company could release its IPO filing as soon as this afternoon, giving investors, analysts, and competitors a rare look inside the finances and ownership structure of Musk's space empire.

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Goldman Sachs secured the lead-left role on SpaceX's upcoming IPO, positioning it as the top banker on what could become one of the largest public offerings in history.

SpaceX is expected to seek a valuation of up to $2 trillion, raising an estimated $75 billion to help fuel its AI and Starship rocket-launch ambitions after merging with xAI and pursuing plans for orbital data centers.

The company confidentially filed IPO documents with the SEC in early April, and its public S-1 filing is expected at any moment today.

Last Friday, Reuters reported that the IPO is set for pricing on June 11, followed by a June 12 debut.

The ticker "SPCX" leads the Polymarket bet, "What will SpaceX's public ticker be?" at 91% by lunchtime in New York.

//--> //--> Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
Yes 91% · No 9%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Elon Musk virtually attended a summit in Tel Aviv on Monday, where he said, "We've got to get the SpaceX IPO stuff going here pretty soon." Those comments put a bid into AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, and Rocket Lab.

Bloomberg's Eric Johnson outlined what exactly to look for when the S1 drops:

  • The company, known formally as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is expected to pick Nasdaq as its listing venue, which would set it up for potential inclusion in the Nasdaq 100.

  • The IPO filing could include key financial details like revenue and net income across its launch, Starlink and artificial intelligence businesses, as well as capital spending on key programs like its colossal Starship rocket.

  • key programs like its colossal Starship rocket * SpaceX's filing is set to reveal the hierarchy of the banks running the deal. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are the lead firms, with Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also working on the transaction, people familiar with the matter have said.

  • SpaceX will list its largest shareholders, including Musk himself and Alphabet Inc.'s Google; its investors also include Valor Equity Partners, Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz.

  • We should find out how voting control of the company will be set up. SpaceX is considering a dual-class share structure, people with knowledge of the plans have said, which could allow Musk to maintain control of the company even with a minority stake.

  • The filing likely won't include information on the price range per share, number of shares offered, shares outstanding or precise shareholdings. Those usually come at the start of formal marketing, which could be as early as June 4, ahead of pricing as soon as June 11, Bloomberg News reported.

The Information's Cory Weinberg published five charts making sense of the IPO numbers: 

1. SpaceX is expected to file its S-1 publicly as soon as tomorrow.

We've reviewed parts of the draft prospectus and tried to make sense of the numbers. Here are 5 charts that explain the company before the largest IPO in history goes live.

2. The company has accumulated $37 billion in losses over its 24-year history — larger than what the next 10 major loss-making tech IPOs *combined* had to disclose at their offerings.

3. SpaceX will tell investors it has $6.6 billion in 'adjusted' profit last year. Under standard accounting, it lost $4.9 billion. 

That gap between headline profit and actual profit is larger than at CoreWeave, Viasat, or Tesla.

4. Starlink dominates. The satellite internet business generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year — more than 7 leading publicly traded satellite communications operators combined.

5. The Space segment — SpaceX's launch business — grew only 8% last year. That's because about three-quarters of Falcon 9 launches were for internal Starlink missions rather than outside customers.

6. The AI segment (X plus xAI) grew 23% last year, compared to over 1,000% for Anthropic and nearly 300% for OpenAI. xAI was slowest-growing of the major AI labs.

View Weinberg's report here. 

With SpaceX set to be the first out of the gates among the three giant tech IPOs, we can't help but wonder how well the record high market will absorb such supply (and what will be sold to make room for it)...

Shares of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were up around 4% during the lunch hour. These banks are expected to be the lead managers on the IPO.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 17:00

Nvidia Unchanged Despite Big Earnings Beat And Solid Guidance

Nvidia Unchanged Despite Big Earnings Beat And Solid Guidance

As we discussed extensively in our preview, besides the Q1 revenue and guidance ($82BN+ and $90BN whisper respectively), Wall Street was expecting to get more color on the following topics during today's call and Q&A:

  1. Potential for increased shareholder cash returns,
  2. Vera Rubin ramp timing (2H 26E),
  3. Gross margin durability (~75% amidst continued memory/other cost inflation),
  4. Update to the $1 Trillion 25-27 forecast, esp. contribution from LPU racks, CPU and Vera Rubin Ultra, not included before
  5. Potential upside from agentic AI to the server CPU business;
  6. Competitive landscape changes against Google TPU, agentic CPU, other ASICs. 

With that in mind, here is what the world's biggest company just reported for Q1:

  • Revenue $81.62BN, beating Exp $79.19BN, but a bit light of the $82BN whisper 
  • Adj EPS $1.87, beating Exp $1.76
  • Adj. Gross Margin 75%, beating Exp. 74.5%

Solid all around. 

The company's all-important disclosed Data Center revenue was a record $75.2 billion in Q1, up 21% from the previous quarter and up 92% from a year ago. Nvidia also said that Vera Rubin is on track for second half of 2026. 

“The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “Agentic AI has arrived, doing productive work, generating real value and scaling rapidly across companies and industries. NVIDIA is uniquely positioned at the center of this transformation as the only platform that runs in every cloud, powers every frontier and open source model, and scales everywhere AI is produced — from hyperscale data centers to the edge.”

Looking ahead, the company guided to revenue of $91.0 billion (plus or minus 2%), which is on top of the whisper number that had been discussed earlier. Certainly a solid guide, especially since  NVIDIA is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook. 

Some more guidance:

  • Additionally, gross margins are expected to be 74.9% and 75.0% (GAAP and non-GAAP)  plus or minus 50 basis points.
  • Operating expenses are expected to be approximately $8.5 billion and $8.3 billion (GAAP and non-GAAP, respectively).

A quick word on margins: as Bloomberg explains,  75% in an environment where, as the CFO defends it, they are shifting between architectures and Blackwell-based platforms are ramping up. Typically new chip ramps pressure margins because yields and supply chains can be messy at the start/early on. Nvidia holding at 75% is good, if almost unrealistic. 

In Q1, the company generated $48.6 billion in free cash flow, a staggering amount, which helped fund $20.0 billion in shareholder returns in the form of shares repurchased and cash dividends (as of the end of the first quarter, the company had $38.5 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization). More importantly, the Board of Directors approved an additional $80.0 billion to the Company’s share repurchase authorization. Also of note, Nvidia's cash and marketable debt were $50 billion at the end of the quarter. That was down by a couple of billion dollars. 

Another notable thing is that NVIDIA said it was transitioning to a new reporting framework that "better reflects its current and future growth drivers." NVIDIA will have two market platforms — Data Center and Edge Computing.

  • Within Data Center, NVIDIA will report two sub-markets, Hyperscale and ACIE, which incorporates AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise. Hyperscale will include revenue from the public clouds and the world’s largest consumer internet companies, while ACIE addresses NVIDIA’s growth opportunity in diverse AI purpose-built data centers and AI factories across industries and countries.
  • Edge Computing highlights data processing devices for agentic and physical AI including PCs, game consoles, workstations, AI-RAN base stations, robotics and automotive.

Under the previous sub-markets, Data Center compute revenue was a record $60.4 billion, up 77% from a year ago and up 18% sequentially. Data Center networking revenue was a record $14.8 billion, up 199% from a year ago and up 35% sequentially. The only problem: Compute missed expectations, which probably explains why NVDA will no longer break it out.

And another red flag: inventory soared. Usually this is a horrible sign for component makers. In this case Nvidia is saying that it has been spending to secure strategic inventory and capacity to “meet demand beyond the next several quarters.” Of course, there would not be a shortage to begin with if inventory was not being massively stockpiled.

In any case, the market is glossing over the negatives, and focusing on the solid beat and guidance (even if compute appears to be lagging), and as a result after briefly dumping then pumping, the stock is unchanged, which means all that options traders who were betting on a 5.5% move after hours are about to see their calls and puts expire worthless.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 16:48

A Troubling Trend: Why More Workers Are Tapping 401(k)s Early And How To Resist

A Troubling Trend: Why More Workers Are Tapping 401(k)s Early And How To Resist

Authored by Due via The Epoch Times,

What’s the main goal of your 401(k)? Well, my dear Watson, it’s to provide for your retirement. Specifically, it’s a long-term investment that benefits from compound interest. But for a record number of Americans, the “long term” is taking a back seat to immediate financial struggles.

Early 401(k) withdrawals can create costly setbacks for future retirement savings. ShutterstockProfessional/Shutterstock

In 2025, 6 percent of Vanguard 401(k) plan members took hardship withdrawals. That’s a big jump from 4.8 percent in 2024 and much higher than the roughly 2 percent annual rate we saw before the pandemic.

This trend, highlighted by the World Economic Forum and MarketWatch, paints an alarming picture of the American workforce’s financial health. Costs are rising, stress is growing, and well-intentioned regulatory changes are having unintended consequences.

That said, now is the time to investigate why this is happening and to identify the hidden costs. And, most importantly, you need realistic ways to avoid making your retirement nest egg an emergency fund.

The Breakdown: What’s Driving the Surge?

It’s not a coincidence that hardship withdrawals are at an all-time high. This is the result of several powerful economic forces colliding:

A Squeeze of Rising Costs and Financial Stress

It’s not a secret that life has gotten more expensive. Even though some metrics indicate a slowdown in inflation, the cumulative effect of price hikes in groceries, housing, and other essentials over the last few years has significantly reduced consumer purchasing power. As an example, consumer prices are approximately 25 percent higher than they were in January 2020.

As such, a small unexpected expense can trigger a crisis for many families with little to no financial buffer. In fact, according to a Bankrate survey, just 47 percent of Americans have sufficient liquidity or access to funds to cover a $1,000 emergency expense.

The Urgent Nature of the Withdrawals

These withdrawals aren’t for vacations or new cars. According to Vanguard, the median withdrawal amount in 2025 was $1,900. And, among the reasons people tapped their 401(k)s, these were the most common:

  • Avoiding foreclosure or eviction (36 percent)
  • Medical expenses (31 percent)
  • Tuition (13 percent)
  • Primary residence repairs (11 percent)
  • Primary residence purchase (5 percent)

Ultimately, withdrawals represent a broader challenge: Americans have relatively few retirement savings at their disposal.

Lowered Hurdles Have a Positive Impact

Ironically, some recent regulatory changes intended to ease the burden may be contributing to the rise. As a result of legislation such as the SECURE Act 2.0 (SECURE refers to Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement.) and legislation from the pandemic era, it’s now significantly easier to access funds in a 401(k). Depending on the situation, the rules now allow withdrawals of up to a defined amount (like $1,000) without penalty for “unforeseeable or immediate financial needs.”

As important as this flexibility is in a real catastrophe, it also lowers the psychological and logistical bar to leveraging these funds. The result, though, is that your retirement account looks more like a savings account, which is a very dangerous mentality.

The True Cost of ‘Easy Money’

When you’re facing eviction or a huge medical bill, $5,000 from your 401(k) can seem like a lifeline. But that lifeline comes at a heavy price, one that is often overlooked in times of crisis, such as the following.

Immediate Tax Consequences

Unlike a 401(k) loan that you repay with after-tax funds, a hardship withdrawal is permanent. Therefore, the withdrawal amount is generally taxable as ordinary income. When you take out $10,000, for example, and are in the 22 percent tax bracket, you’ll immediately owe $2,200 in federal taxes, which reduces your actual relief to $7,800.

Potential Penalties

If you’re under 59 ½ years old, you will likely face an additional 10 percent early withdrawal penalty on top of income tax. That’s another $1,000 gone from your $10,000 withdrawal, bringing the total cost of immediate access to 32 percent.

The Devastating Sacrifice of Compound Growth

Obviously, this is the highest and most invisible cost. Imagine if the $10,000 you withdrew had been left to grow for another 20 years. With an average annual return of 7 percent, that money would have grown to about $38,700. By taking out that money now, you are not only borrowing $10,000 from your future self; you’re erasing almost $39,000 from your retirement account.

This is a magic trick. That’s the power of compound interest. Knowing this sooner will help you realize that 401(k) withdrawals aren’t “easy money”—they’re incredibly expensive loans.

The Irony: A Healthy System With Struggling Participants

An astounding contradiction can be found within the same 2025 data: even though record numbers of people are tapping into their 401(k)s for emergencies, the average 401(k) balance actually grew by 13 percent since 2024.

In addition, more recent analysis from Fidelity shows average 401(k) balances climbed more than 11 percent, indicating that nest eggs have rebounded after recent swings in the markets.

Although this may seem confusing, it indicates a widening gap. While many workers contribute consistently and benefit from employer matches, consistent contributions, and strong market conditions. Their wealth is growing.

Meanwhile, the 6 percent of participants who resort to hardship withdrawals constitute a vulnerable segment of the population. Although the retirement system appears healthy on the surface, they’re suffering the brunt of the affordability crisis. This is a powerful reminder that “average” statistics can mask serious underlying problems.

Realistic Strategies to Keep Your 401(k) Locked

If recent data tells us anything, it’s that relying on your 401(k) as a backup checking account is a high-stakes gamble. To ensure your retirement fund remains dedicated to your future, you need a proactive defense. Here are realistic, actionable options to keep that vault closed.

Re-Evaluate and Automate Your Budget

This is the foundational work that makes everything else possible. If you don’t track your spending, you can’t control it. Before you can build momentum, you have to stop the bleeding by identifying exactly where your cash is going.

  • Audit your “leaks.” For one month, track every cent. You’ll likely find “ghost” expenses, like unused subscriptions, frequent small convenience purchases, or delivery fees, that are quietly draining your ability to save.
  • Establish a “needs vs. wants” hierarchy. Be ruthless. Shelter, utilities, groceries, and minimum debt payments are non-negotiable needs. Everything else is a want. If your financial foundation feels shaky, wants must be the first thing to go.
  • Use the right tools. Modern technology makes this much less painful. Using financial apps, such as WalletHub or Monarch Money, can put you in total control. By linking your accounts, your expenses are automatically categorized, allowing you to see your spending patterns in real-time. These tools also allow you to effortlessly manage and cancel subscriptions in one place, ensuring you aren’t paying for services you no longer use.
Build a ‘Firewall’ Emergency Fund

An emergency fund is the only thing standing between a flat tire and a raided retirement account.

  • Start with a mini-goal. Don’t let the “six months’ expenses” rule overwhelm you. Start with a small target you can afford, whether it’s $300 or $1,000. That single amount covers the vast majority of common shocks, from a basic car repair to an urgent medical copay.
  • Make it invisible. Set up a recurring transfer from your checking account to a separate high-yield savings account on the day you get paid. Even $25 or $50 per pay period builds a psychological and financial buffer. If the money never hits your main account, you won’t miss it.
Explore Smarter Alternatives for Fast Cash

Before you touch your 401(k), exhaust every other avenue. Retirement should be the last door you open.

  • Low-interest personal loans. You can manage debt or major expenses with a low-interest personal loan from a credit union or bank without incurring heavy taxes or losing compounding interest. For well-qualified borrowers, fixed-rate loans offer predictable, manageable monthly payments with rates as low as 10 percent.
  • 0 percent APR balance transfers. If high-interest credit card debt is the primary stressor, a zero percent introductory APR card can give you a 12-to-18-month window to pay down the principal without accruing more interest.
  • Community and state programs. Local and federal organizations assist with housing and utility crises, such as 2-1-1, HUD, and the Homeowner Assistance Fund (HAF). Before sacrificing your future security, take advantage of these programs designed to prevent eviction and foreclosure.
A Final Safety Valve: The 401(k) Loan

If you have truly exhausted every other option and are facing an immediate crisis, such as eviction, a 401(k) loan is generally a better choice than a hardship withdrawal.

  • Why is it better? Essentially, you’re borrowing money from yourself and paying the interest back to yourself. In addition, it does not trigger the 10 percent early withdrawal penalty or immediate income tax.
  • The critical caveat. You must repay it, typically within five years, via payroll deduction. Be aware that if you leave your job, the remaining balance is often due immediately. If you can’t pay it back, it defaults into a withdrawal—triggering the exact taxes and penalties you were trying to avoid at a time when you may be least able to afford them.
Conclusion: Protecting Your Future, One Day at a Time

Vanguard’s 2025 data is alarming. Americans are increasingly financially vulnerable to the point that their primary tool for future security is being wiped out by today’s pressures. This is not a sustainable path.

The first step is to understand the “why” behind this trend, which is rooted in financial stress, urgent needs, and simplified rules. The second step is to acknowledge the true, exorbitant cost of this immediate relief.

In the end, building a financial infrastructure that can withstand storms is the key to preventing your 401(k) from being a go-to ATM. Start with a real budget and an emergency fund, no matter how small. Even when today’s demands seem overwhelming, you must discipline yourself and put your future first.

Remember, your 401(k) shouldn’t be viewed as a piggy bank but as a tool to ensure you’ll have the lifestyle you want in your golden years. Don’t risk your retirement for a temporary fix. The costs are simply too high.

By John Rampton

The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 16:20

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