Kunstler: Suburban Sprawl Is A 'Death Trap' For America's National Spirit

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

The Late, Great Debate About Suburbia, An Apologia

"It is difficult to design a place that will not attract people. What is remarkable is how often this has been accomplished."

- William H Whyte

Greenland, yes, yes, okay ! Smooth move. . . !

But. . . today we put aside the vagaries of national and geo-politics to return to a longstanding affliction in American life that is evermore absent from the public discourse and deserves an airing: the quandary of our suburban sprawl living arrangement, and what can be done about it.

First, get this: the demolition derby we live in day-by-day is responsible for as much misery, injustice, economic failure, and ill-health as anything else in our collective doings.

Its sheer ugliness - the horror of the six-lane highway with its ensembles of strip-malls, burger shacks, muffler shops, topless bars, Big Box stops, screaming signage, and the vast wastelands of parking. . . the suicide-inducing housing pods marching out remorselessly through forest, prairie, upland, lowland, basin and range. . . the depressing freeways with their monster entanglements of on-and-off-ramps. . . this epic mutilation of our continental landscape - is an evil quite beyond our ordinary imaginings. This inescapable, immersive ugliness, I remind you, is entropy-made-visible. And entropy, of course, is the force in nature that you really don't want to mess around with because it is the agent of death.

I do not exaggerate. It's a death trap, the way we live in this country, for the mind, the body, the family, the community, and the national spirit. Until fairly recently this was widely apprehended (or at least suspected). But the politicization of everything has wrecked what had been a growing and pretty robust national discussion about it.

To re-cap briefly: this is a big country. It had once been composed of cities, towns, farmlands, and wilderness, a coherent transect of human habitation. The invention of the motor car changed all that, starting in the 1920s.

The ambiguous territory outside these cities and towns represented vast potential fortunes in property development. . . and the race was on.

The Great Depression and World War 2 interrupted the suburban expansion, but it resumed on steroids afterward when the rest of the world was a smoldering ruin and we could sell them anything (and lend them money to buy it). The construction of all the new suburban infrastructure alone was a major component of the late 20th century US economy, and then it became the scaffold for our so-called consumer economy, comprised of furnishing that scaffold with so much stuff that it overflowed into thousands of self-storage sheds.

The decanting of our cities that ensued - the steady dribble of the middle-classes moving out, along with the commerce that served them - left most of those cities ruined. Eventually even the small towns got whacked, the farms paved-over, too. What we're left with is a weird hybrid landscape that is neither town nor country, has few of the civic amenities that add-up to a genuine sense of community, and none of the rural charm formerly found in the countryside. It became painfully obvious that a suburban house was a cartoon of a house in the country, and living in a cartoon is just not spiritually rewarding. Cue the Prozac. . . .

The whole kit, aided by the dogmas of zoning and government lending schemes, became easily reproducible from one locale to the next. For the development industry, the template became a habit. . . and so it boogied on through the decades. By the 1990s, the generation coming into power (yeah, the Boomers) started a revolt against all that. It crystalized in the New Urbanism movement and its signature org, the Congress for the New Urbanism, CNU. We can do better than this, this. . . this. . . national clusterfuck, they declared.

I was excited by this movement, wrote a couple of books about it, got to know the excellent people behind it - architects, urban planners, civic officials, property developers. They were smart, skilled, visionary. They believed that walkable communities and disciplining the automobile would produce places worth caring about and worth living in - and it seemed to me that such an effort would go a long way to curing the desperate anomie of American life. Over the next several decades, the New Urbanists produced scores of great projects. Some were actual new towns, some projects were renovations of existing towns, neighborhoods, business districts, and small town Main Streets. The results of their work are visible all over the country now.

But then, the political crack-up of the country commenced around 2009 with the Great Financial Crash and the ascent of Obama-inspired Wokeness, and really accelerated with the reaction to the advent of Mr. Trump in 2016. From that point on, as a nation, we've been arguing about everything but the disastrous arrangement of daily life on-the-ground in America. Some new twists in the spin of history have made matters worse.

One is that suburban sprawl is, by default, the favorite pattern of MAGA (and I happen to be a Trump voter). To them, suburbia is all tied up with ideas about economic liberty, as is the whole apparatus of Happy Motoring. They are still mentally stuck in the imagery of the TV car commercial - the lone sedan gliding through the sine-cosine curves of the empty seacoast highway, the romantic epitome of freedom! It's a lie, pretty much, because the more universal experience of motoring these days is getting stuck at a crawl in freeway traffic with a thousand other motorists per mile, half of whom desperately need to take a pee and can't do a darn thing about it.

And then there's the fallacy of the suburban housing development being a "community" - bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha! See: I don't even have to explain that. But, MAGA tends to see it this way, along with all the activity that enables it - the mortgage system, the production home-builders ("it's more than a house, you understand, it's a home!"), all of which is so central to a booming economy. So, you don't dare inveigh against suburbia - except I will, because it is making America worse, not great again, and somebody's got to say it.

Yet another thing has come along to wreck the New Urbanist dream of reconstituting the American city and small town, and that thing is the World Economic Forum's (WEF's) proposal they call the "15-minute City." Superficially, it seems to resemble the traditional neighborhood model that the NU's espouse. But deeper down the 15-Minute City is much more about a surveillance and tracking apparatus - and this has caused many conservatives (especially them) to reject anything that looks like traditional urban design.

It's a most unfortunate situation, but that's where things stand, and it's one reason that the debate over suburban sprawl has stopped. A final and equally unfortunate development is that the CNU org came to be taken over the past decade by political Wokesters more interested in Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity BS than in their original mission of providing workable remedies for the tragic fiasco of American suburbia.

And now you know why it is so hard to talk about this geography of nowhere anymore.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 16:20

Judge Rules EPA Must Reinstate $7 Billion Biden-Era Subsidies For Solar Promotion

Authored by Jeremy Lott via The Epoch Times,

A $7 billion federal government grant program for solar promotion, authorized during the Biden administration, was reinstated by a federal judge on Sept. 18 in a ruling that rebuffed the Trump administration's efforts to cancel it.

Solar panel array at a solar farm near Lancaster, Calif., on June 17, 2026. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Judge Mary McElroy of the U.S. District Court for the District of Rhode Island wrote in her ruling that the current Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) "termination of the Solar for All program is declared unlawful."

Money was appropriated in 2022 for a Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund under the Inflation Reduction Act that later spawned the $7 billion Solar for All grant program in June 2023. Congress at the time dedicated billions of dollars to the program and a separate smaller amount in the millions of dollars for its administration by the EPA.

Funds for the grant program would be used to "create and expand low-income solar programs that provide financing and technical assistance, such as workforce development, to enable low-income and disadvantaged communities to deploy and benefit from residential solar," the Biden-era EPA wrote.

Current EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin criticized the program on Sept. 7, 2025, saying that canceling it would save taxpayers billions of dollars.

"The One Big Beautiful Bill eliminated the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which included a $7 billion pot called 'Solar for All,'" he said in a statement announcing the program's cancellation.

"EPA no longer has the statutory authority to administer the program or the appropriated funds to keep this boondoggle alive."

An audit of the program found that as of early August 2025, the program's 60 grant recipients had "drawn down approximately $71 million, or 1.02 percent, of the obligated funds for various aspects of project planning and implementation."

The Trump-era EPA canceled the program. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the current Congress canceled some funds for administering the program and rescinded Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund money that was not already obligated.

The EPA noted that none of the plaintiffs suing the government were actually grant recipients. Instead, they were prospective subrecipients or third-order beneficiaries, such as unions. The government argued that they lacked standing to sue.

McElroy disagreed on the standing question. She also interpreted the text of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to mean that "existing grants were not to be rescinded" and that only minor "unobligated" funds could be clawed back.

Practically, all of the funds were spoken for by designated recipient organizations. What that means is that, unless reversed on appeal, the current EPA may find itself obligated to give out the remaining nearly $7 billion in solar promotion subsidies from the Biden era.

Patrick Crowley, president of the Rhode Island AFL-CIO, one of the parties that brought suit, told The Epoch Times that he was "very pleased with the ruling."

The union president said he did not "think the federal government should appeal," as the ruling makes "very clear that this program should never have been stopped by the EPA in the first place."

Carolyn Holran, a spokesperson for the EPA, indicated that Crowley might be disappointed by her agency's next steps.

"EPA is reviewing the decision and considering options for appeal," she told The Epoch Times.

Crowley said the total Rhode Island slice of federal funding should come to $49 million, which would provide "thousands of good-paying union jobs."

Unions and the Trump administration have often been at loggerheads over green projects. Crowley said that they had notched up legal victories on offshore wind projects and solar grants, and promised more.

"We won't back down in our efforts to protect our members' jobs while we build a new carbon-free economy," he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 15:45

Verizon Says Cut Cable Behind FAA Ground-Stops East Coast Airports, Not Their Fault

(Update 1540ET): Verizon confirmed the "unknown equipment issue" behind the massive ground stop in the tri-state area was a cut fiber cable in New Jersey. The company says construction contractors working near an Amtrak rail line dug it up, that Verizon's facilities were fully functional until that happened, and that the carrier bears no responsibility for the incident. Technicians are on site, and the company says it is working to repair the damaged cable and restore connectivity.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford told reporters an older circuit serving Philadelphia TRACON failed this morning. Controllers tried to flip to the backup fiber the agency had installed as part of its modernization push, and the backup was already dead. The agency did not know the fiber was cut until the primary circuit went down, Bedford said. The damaged stretch is roughly 600 feet between New Brunswick and Newark. Repairing that line, he said, could take about 13 hours. "It's massive, I'm told."

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy put it more bluntly: an Amtrak construction crew cut into the fiber and forced the FAA to pause Northeast traffic.

By mid-afternoon LaGuardia had resumed in some form, and Philadelphia and JFK were being walked back from full ground stops toward delay programs. Newark and Teterboro were still the problem children. That is the airspace Philadelphia TRACON was handed in 2024, the same facility that had radio-frequency trouble last August and a string of radar and comms failures through 2025.

The FAA is trying to stand up a replacement circuit rather than wait out a 13-hour splice. Until the data is flowing again, inbound traffic into the remaining restricted fields stays on the ground at origin, which is still a ground stop, still the most restrictive tool the agency has. World leaders are landing in New York this week for the UN General Assembly.

* * *

The FAA has issued ground-stop orders to arrivals into every major New York-area airport: JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark. Teterboro, Westchester, and Philadelphia are in the same pile. Official reason: equipment outage.

What happened

The first restrictions hit Newark, Teterboro, and Philadelphia after problems with radio frequencies at Philadelphia TRACON, the terminal radar facility that handles arrivals and departures in that airspace. The FAA later added JFK, LaGuardia, and Westchester.

The agency has not publicly detailed which systems failed, how long repairs will take, or whether New York TRACON (N90) is separately affected. That lack of specifics is why the disruption is being described as an "unknown equipment issue."

92 cancellations and nearly 70 diversions at Newark so far today as an FAA equipment outage continues to hold flights bound for Newark, Philadelphia, and Teterboro at their origin airports. Traffic comparison between last week and today. pic.twitter.com/6mMwzi4mrG

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) September 21, 2026

A ground stop holds aircraft destined for the listed airports on the ground at their origin. It is one of the FAA's most restrictive tools and is used when controllers cannot safely accept more inbound traffic.

What actually broke? Frequencies, per the first FAA statement. Then just "equipment / outage" on the national status board. No system named, no timeline, no "we kicked the rack and it came back."

Philadelphia TRACON is not a random facility: it is the same one that took over Newark approach control in 2024 and then suffered repeated radar and radio failures through 2025, severe enough that controllers went out on trauma leave. On Aug. 28 of last year, the FAA ground-stopped Newark for roughly two hours over what it called equipment issues affecting "some radio frequencies in the Philadelphia TRACON area," with arrival delays averaging about 90 minutes - the same facility and the same stated cause as today. 

Impact

Newark saw the earliest and heaviest effects. As of 11:07 a.m. ET, FAA data showed average departure delays out of Newark running about 90 minutes and increasing, with the ground stop set to expire at 11:15 a.m. and a 30-60% chance of extension. Flight-tracking data showed dozens of jets queued on the pavement, along with dozens of cancellations and diversions. Teterboro departure delays were steeper.

Via @Bogs4NY

Boston Logan also has restrictions, though those are listed as volume and weather rather than the same equipment problem.

Because JFK, LGA, and EWR sit on one of the busiest corridors in the country, the stops ripple nationally: crews and aircraft get out of position, later banks get late, and connecting passengers miss onward flights.

Maybe another rogue AI escaped a sandbox? 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 15:40

Bessent Declares All Iran Airlines To Be 'Shut Down Around The World' Wednesday

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared on Monday that by Wednesday Sept. 23, "all the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world."

"If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system," he described.

Bessent on Iran:

On September 23, all Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world.

How do we do that? If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar… pic.twitter.com/pX5wfEobV3

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 21, 2026

The new warning and 'promise' was issued after the US earlier this month imposed sanctions on "all remaining Iranian airlines" which had yet to face such penalties - thus Bessent's new declaration is that these entities are about to collapse under the weight of Washington actions, which now is to include secondary targeting.

The Treasury Department has also lately targeted Iranian companies and industries supporting Iran's aviation sector.

Some 27 airlines have already been sanctioned - also most recently the major Mahan Air has faced expanded sanctions (after first being targeted by Washington all the way back in 2011).

The Treasury has famed all of this as part of efforts to deny the Iranian government the ability to move "weapons, personnel, and illicit cargo".

Bessent stated to CNBC that all Iranian airlines will be shut down globally on Sept. 23 - given that any fuel, landing, and ticket providers involved with the companies risk dollar-system exclusion.

Ironically, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and his delegation is expected to fly into New York City just the day prior, on Tuesday - to attend the UN General Assembly. He is set to give a formal address to the UN body on Wednesday.

This will provide rare opportunity for potential White House diplomacy to take place on the sidelines, which could happen as early as Tuesday.

As for the heavily sanctioned aviation industry, in recent years the Islamic Republic has suffered some significant aerial disasters, which included the May 19, 2024 death of President Ebrahim Raisi. His military helicopter went down in a rugged, mountainous area of northwestern Iran.

via Reuters

Some speculate that lack of airline parts and aging aircraft, due to the long-standing US targeting of the industry, has only served to increase the chances of aviation disasters.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 15:30

US Opens Foreign Funding Investigations Into Duke, University Of North Dakota

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The State Department and the Department of Education are investigating Duke University and the University of North Dakota over allegedly violating foreign funding disclosure rules.

The statue of Washington Duke on Duke University's East Campus with Baldwin Auditorium is shown in Durham, N.C., on April 11, 2006. Sara D. Davis/Getty Images

Section 117 of the Higher Education Act of 1965 requires postsecondary institutions that receive federal financial assistance to disclose the source of foreign gifts and contracts with an annual value of $250,000 or more, according to a Sept. 16 statement.

The law aims to counter undue foreign influence in America's higher education sector. Both universities receive taxpayer support to develop crucial technologies.

However, a review of records submitted by the universities "indicated the submission of incomplete, inaccurate, and untimely disclosures," the Department of Education said in the statement.

In a Sept. 15 letter to Duke University president Vincent E. Price, the department raised concerns about the institution's research collaboration with China's Wuhan University. This agreement between the universities has led to the establishment of Duke Kunshan University in Jiangsu, China, in 2013.

Wuhan University is overseen by China's Ministry of Education and another state entity that oversees China's nuclear weapons and military research programs. The institution plays an important role in the country's national defense science and tech innovation.

China's Ministry of Education requires joint-venture universities, such as Duke Kunshan University, to have a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) unit to monitor their operations. These units can also influence administrative tasks. Moreover, Duke Kunshan University's Board of Trustees appears to include key Chinese regime officials, according to the letter.

The Education Department's review of Sec. 117 disclosure reports from Duke shows that the university has reported 1,266 qualifying foreign funding transactions since July 2020, totaling roughly $1.01 billion. The institution allegedly engages in "systemic reporting errors related to timely disclosure of contracts with foreign sources," the department said in the letter.

As for the University of North Dakota (UND), the department's Sept. 15 letter to the institution's president Andrew Armacost highlighted the university's critical role in America's national security efforts.

Specifically, UND's School of Aerospace partners with the North Dakota Army and Air National Guard, the U.S. Air Force, and private sector defense contractors. UND also provides a training environment to support U.S. drone dominance in uncrewed air systems.

Since July 2020, the university has reported 71 transactions that would qualify under Section 117, valued at around $98 million. Many of these transactions "appear to have involved Chinese aviation companies," the letter said.

The Department of Education instructed both universities to submit records of tax compliance; Section 117 compliance structure; international research collaborations; foreign government talent program compliance; foreign gifts, grants, and contracts; and international faculty, research personnel, and student agreements.

"Unfortunately, it appears that both Duke and UND have provided untimely and incomplete foreign funding disclosures, which include erroneously identifying certain governmental partners as 'non-governmental,'" Under Secretary of Education Nicholas Kent said in the statement.

"We expect these universities will cooperate fully. The Department of Education and the Department of State will continue to work together to vigorously ensure the integrity and accountability of our nation's colleges and universities in reporting their foreign gifts and contracts," Kent said.

The Epoch Times reached out to Duke University and the University of North Dakota for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

In an email to The Chronicle, Duke's student-run news organization, a spokesperson from the institution said they were "reviewing the letter carefully." The university is "committed to complying with the law and will continue to do so in a manner that is consistent with our academic mission," the spokesperson said.

The recent investigations come after the Education Department announced its partnership with the State Department in February, aimed at improving transparency of foreign contracts and gift reporting in higher education institutions.

According to a fact sheet published at the time, the partnership aligns with President Donald Trump's April 2025 executive order, Transparency Regarding Foreign Influence at American Universities.

In the order, Trump wrote that it is the administration's policy to "end the secrecy" regarding foreign funds flowing into the country's educational institutions.

Last month, the Pentagon announced it had asked 30 academic institutions to audit their research, academic, and financial collaborations with foreign entities that are deemed to threaten national security.

The Pentagon's notices were sent to universities linked to certain research facilities or foreign schools in China, Iran, or Russia.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 15:00

Big Tech's Next AI Battleground Is Your Face, Loop Capital Says

Smartglasses are set to be the "next major computing platform," according to Loop Capital analysts, as Meta currently leads the space, with Google, Samsung, Apple, and SNAP preparing their own AI-powered eyewear.

Loop Capital analyst Rob Sanderson wrote in a note on Sunday that an "inflection point" has arrived for smart glasses, which are "transitioning from wearable camera accessories to what is becoming a primary hardware interface for conversational AI."

Sanderson and analyst Anthony Chukumba spoke with wearable-tech executive Jon Li about the smart glasses industry and where it's headed into the new year.

Li shared our view that Meta dominates the smart glasses industry with its Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, while Google is building an ecosystem around Android XR and Snap holds an advantage in more advanced augmented reality. He said Apple could remain on the sidelines until 2028 or 2029 before introducing its own smart glasses.

Here are the key points from the conversation between Loop Capital analysts and Li:

Jon Li is a seasoned technology executive with extensive product management, user experience design, and business development experience. Mr. Li is currently Managing Partner of strategic consultancy Asentio where he advises companies on product strategy, commercialization, and human-AI collaboration. He previously served as US General Manager for XREAL, where he was instrumental in driving the company's expansion into the US market through the development of strategic and retail distribution partnerships. Earlier in his career he held senior product and program management positions with Indigo Technologies, SERES EV, and YouSpace and senior design positions with Motorola, Philips, and FLIR Systems.

Bullish on Android XR broadly... Mr. Li is bullish on the Android XR smartglasses operating system (OS), which Google has developed in partnership with Samsung and Qualcomm. He noted Android XR leverages Google's existing Android OS, large developer base, and mature developer framework and tools. In addition, Mr. Li views Android XR as a "true digital assistant" with the ability to utilize users’ calendars, tasks, documents, location, etc. to provide contextual assistance in real time. He noted one significant difference between Android OS and Android XR is Google plans to more tightly control distribution of the latter by working with a limited number of partners (e.g., Samsung, XREAL). Mr. Li expects Android XR and Gemini AI features to be updated every few months, while hardware changes would occur at most once a year.

...and Warby Parker's Intelligent Eyewear more specifically. Mr. Li is also fairly upbeat about Warby Parker's forthcoming Intelligent Eyewear launch, which he views as a key component of mass market smartglasses adoption. Mr. Li believes Warby Parker is a compelling Android XR partner given the optical retailers' history of transforming the eyeglass purchase process (i.e., online and in store) as well as ability to educate first-time buyers and provide initial fittings and post-purchase support. All that said, Mr. Li questioned the strength of Warby Parker's post-purchase customer relationships given the fact Google, not Warby Parker, controls the digital assistant consumers will be interfacing with.

Views Snap as having a multi-year lead on full AR. While previous versions were not released for commercial distribution, Snap's recently introduced SPECS are the company's 5th generation hardware design. Mr. Li believes Snap's long-term focus and extensive experience with augmented reality on smartphones gives it a multi-year lead over competitors and expects the cadence of multiple iterations will shrink and cost-reduce its offering. Mr. Li sees enterprise suitability and highlights the base of customers in industrial production, manufacturing, healthcare and other verticals left stranded by Microsoft's discontinued HoloLens platform as an area of obvious interest. Mr. Li believes it will ultimately be the developer community and partner ecosystem that drives category adoption and sees Snap's ~450K developers using Lens Studio as a meaningful advantage.

Apple launch probably later than sooner, will lift overall market. Mr. Li believes Apple is unlikely to enter the smartglasses market until 2028/2029 given the company's long history of learning from competitors' earlier products to introduce a superior version later (e.g., iPod, iPhone, AirPods). Mr. Li believes Apple will initially introduce a premium, higher priced product (i.e., ~$800 as compared to $499 for the top-of-the-line Ray-Ban Meta Wayfarer Optics) and focus on user experience as opposed to hardware specifications; ultimately, he thinks Apple's success will hinge on the strength of the AI assistant and level of integration with the broader iOS ecosystem, stating Siri AI is not yet where it needs to be. Mr. Li thinks an Apple entry will be a net positive for existing industry players by drawing more attention to and legitimizing smartglasses, pointing to the impact the company's recent introduction of the iPhone Duo is having on foldable smartphones. 

Beyond Loop Capital and their insights into the smart glasses industry via an insider, Luca Solca, Bernstein's senior equity analyst and global luxury-goods sector head, covering companies including EssilorLuxottica, LVMH, Hermès and Richemont, and recently pointed out emerging backlash in the public domain of these glasses, with some trends on social media going viral, such as "pervert glasses," and such. 

We suspect Meta, Snap, Google, and other players will eventually need to confront the "pervert glasses" narrative with a counter narrative of their own. Good luck solving that with a marketing campaign.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 14:45

Trump's 48-Hour Houthi Strike Whiplash Was Triggered By Desire To 'Help His Friend' MbS

President Trump's abrupt Saturday return to the White House from Camp David, where he had been slated to spend the whole weekend, had set off an avalanche of speculation on potential military escalation in the Middle East.

The NY Times and Axios are reporting that the Commander-in-Chief was close to a ordering new anti-Houthi intervention but that he backed out, TACOing once again but this time in pretty rapid order.

Source: White House

"President Trump over the weekend considered ordering a strike against the Houthis in Yemen before deciding to hold off for now, two U.S. officials said," Axios writes Monday. "Trump was caught between wanting to help his friend and ally, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and avoiding getting entangled on a new front in the Middle East."

So now the nation stands on the brink of yet a separate Mideast adventure while the Iran conflict has yet to end, this time in Yemen, because Trump desires to "help his friend". But in the end he did not pull the trigger, for now at least.

The NY Times on Sunday laid out a wild, whiplash of a fast-paced timeline in terms of decision-making:

Mr. Trump had met with advisers just the day before and told them he did not favor strikes. But after speaking with the Saudi crown prince, he reversed himself and told the Pentagon to prepare for airstrikes against the Houthis.

But by midday Sunday, the president appeared to have reversed himself again. There would be no U.S. airstrikes against the Houthis — at least not for the time being, according to administration officials. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss military planning.

One wonders if Congress might ever be consulted, instead of going to war after a single phone call with 'friends' in Saudi Arabia and Israel?

Trump has reportedly been mulling what to do about the Yemen crisis for the last two weeks, especially as the Shia group backed by Tehran has ramped up attacks on Aramco facilities in the kingdom.

So far, the White House is only said to have authorized intelligence and targeting assistance. Still, the Houthis keep advancing, regional reports say, after having conquered Yemen's Red Sea coast. To review of some of our Monday morning coverage:

Brent crude oil prices are also lower despite news that Donald Trump had cut short a trip to Camp David to return to Washington, reports that Iran had activated its highest military readiness alert amid claims that the US is preparing to resume attacks, Houthi attacks on the Saudi capital Riyadh, and Pentagon Pizza Report activity suggestive of something afoot.

All of this was accompanied by fresh alerts for American travelers issued by US embassies across the whole Mideast region.

For a little trip down memory lane...

Trump mocked Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) for Saudi Arabia's security dependence on the US: "He didn't think this was going to happen. He didn't think he'd be kissing my ass. He really didn't." pic.twitter.com/q9vJK76O6X

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) March 28, 2026

Even if Trump were to authorize new direct strikes on Yemen, any purely aerial campaign would be very unlikely to dislodge the Houthis. It could also serve to further divide already stretched-thin US forces and assets in the region. US assets operating over the Gulf area might have to be diverted.

The Houthi rebels have already endured literally dozens of major air raids from the US and Israelis stretching back through the Gaza war. The attacks seemed to only embolden them, and now they can put the chokehold on Red Sea shipping at any time they want.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 14:30

Critical Metals Shares Soar On Trump's Greenland Deal As Mining Stocks Eye Rebound After Summer Slump

Critical Metals jumped 37.5% to $9.22, while Greenland Energy surged 126% and Greenland Mines soared 136% on news this past weekend that President Trump had announced a security deal with Denmark and Greenland. This is fueling Wall Street's expectations of greater US access to the territory's mineral resources.

Trump said Friday in a lengthy Truth Social post that the US had reached a deal with Denmark and Greenland granting it control over Greenland's security. Danish and Greenlandic officials said the agreement preserves Greenland's sovereignty.

"At my direction, we worked with representatives of Denmark and Greenland to guarantee that the United States will FOREVER have the complete ability to do what is necessary in Greenland to secure and defend the security of Greenland, and the United States of America," Trump stated.

Critical Metals' Tanbreez project offers the West conflict-free (meaning ex-China) rare earth supplies. The company says heavy rare earths make up about 27% of the deposit's total rare-earth content. These materials are critical for magnets, defense systems and precision electronics. 

Based on Critical Metals' latest disclosures, Tanbreez is not yet in commercial production. The company describes it as an advanced, permitted development project that will supply rare earths "once operational."

What's notable about the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland is that it contains about 45 million metric tons of resources. 

According to Critical Metals' March 2026 slide deck, Tanbreez is targeting first ore production in late 2028 or early 2029, with concentrate exports beginning by the third quarter of 2029. That is a major problem for the West, and the market is getting ahead of itself because these critical metals were needed yesterday, as China's quasi-monopolistic position in critical metals is currently choking the West.

That's why we're focused on producers that can deliver today rather than junior miners, as highlighted by the Bloomberg news earlier this morning that South Korea gave Almonty Industries the green light to begin shipping tungsten ore from its Sangdong mine to overseas customers. 

The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) is a fund that holds shares of lithium, tungsten, and other materials miners. 

Its positions include:

• SQM: 7.89%
• Albemarle: 7.74%
• MP Materials: 6.22%
• Lynas Rare Earths: 5.93%
• Almonty Industries: 4.15%

REMX saw a massive run-up beginning in mid-2025 and peaked around June before retracing about 40%. Now the mining ETF is stabilizing with a higher low and could be due for an upside move.

With China choking off critical metal supplies to the West, the market should focus on miners that are producing today and can deliver to fill the West's supply gap. Early movers will win. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 14:15

Wall Street Turns Its Back On Consumer Stocks As Fuel Costs Soar And Yields Surge

US gasoline prices near $4.44 a gallon at the pump, record diesel prices of $6.40 a gallon, and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hike this week, its first since July 2023, are compounding pressure on household budgets and borrowing costs. Against that troubling backdrop, UBS warns that Wall Street is "turning more skeptical on consumer recovery."

UBS equity trader Mark Paski wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday about the gloomy environment for consumers that has placed renewed selling pressure on consumer stocks as Wall Street grows increasingly skeptical of a second-half earnings recovery, with recent management commentary pointing to persistent cost pressures and limited evidence of a meaningful rebound in demand.

"While part of the recent weakness can be attributed to higher crude prices and rates, the sharp sell-off across apparel, retail and restaurant names suggests investors are looking beyond those factors. Feedback from the conference circuit pointed to a common theme: persistent macro uncertainty, ongoing cost pressures and little evidence of a near-term demand inflection. Management teams broadly flagged pressure from inflation, transportation costs, fuel prices and cautious consumer behavior, reinforcing the view that earnings recovery may take longer than previously expected," Paski said.

He noted that consumer companies' share of S&P market capitalization has tumbled to just 13.5%, a record low, from about 31% in 1992. That decline shows the sector is becoming less relevant to investors.

S&P restaurant stocks are weakening more sharply than the broader consumer discretionary sector, signaling this growing concern ahead of midterm elections.

The hoped-for consumer rebound in the second half is running into a familiar problem: businesses face rising costs while customers remain reluctant to spend.

Speaking at Goldman Sachs' 33rd Annual Global Retailing Conference on Tuesday morning, Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos offered a downbeat assessment of its customer base, warning that "even that middle to upper middle is acting more like a lower income shopper these days."

At the start of the week, Jefferies food analyst Scott Marks flagged new pressure on convenience store customers as gasoline and diesel prices soared in August.

Professional subscribers can read a lot more about consumer stocks here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 13:40

Powerful Explosion Rocks Aleppo Ammo Depot In Latest Mystery Blast

A terrifying blast erupted outside the major northern Syrian city of Aleppo overnight, which caused area residents to evacuate their homes, and with sustained explosions visible for miles around.

The explosion happened at an army base in an outlying town, injuring at least four people, after which a series of blasts persisted, which unleashed shrapnel across the area.

State media outlet SANA later cited Ministry of Emergency and Disaster Management which indicated an ammunition depot was detonated.

Amid local evacuations, emergency crews were on "high alert... due to the continued explosions" - after being initially unable to get close given persisting and follow-on explosions.

An eyewitness in Aleppo's Hamdaniyeh neighborhood told AFP of a "huge explosion" and that people in the area could see "large flames in the distance".

Typically the first fear that Syrians have is that they are once again under attack by Israeli fighter jets, given this is a scenario which has played out literally hundreds of times over the past several years of conflict. There have been no initial statements describing what caused the disaster.

But several munitions and military warehouse accidents have occurred under the new Jolani government of late.

An ammunition depot exploded in Aleppo, northwestern Syria.

Follow: https://t.co/Ez42KDda7X pic.twitter.com/f0ZGtnNUIH

— PressTV Extra (@PresstvExtra) September 20, 2026

For example, in earlier September a Ministry of Defense weapons depot ignited and 14 people were killed.

Lately the country has been suffering extreme fuel prices amid efforts to get inflation under control, and amid stagnant wages and efforts to get the post-war economy back on track. Washington's recent dropping of Assad-era sanctions have yet to bear any immediate fruit, however.

Several days of protests across various cities have persisted, after the new rulers in Damascus abruptly removed fuel subsidies for the population. 

On September 13 the government decision saw diesel prices shoot up 40% and petrol prices by 28%, after not just years but decades of government regulated price controls and subsidies. 

Is there a covert sabotage campaign afoot? The Israelis have of late occupied southern Syria, and have engaged in operations to ensure Syria has no advanced or heavy weapons or munitions...

Three #Syria Defense Ministry arms depots have exploded in 11 days — in #Idlib (Sep 9), Deir ez Zour (Sep 18) & tonight in #Aleppo.

It’s still summer weather in #Syria, and storage practices could be better — but 3 in 11 days seems too much to be coincidence.

Big questions. pic.twitter.com/BkaZ0A2lZS

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) September 20, 2026

Already the country was smashed by proxy war and sweeping US-led sanctions, not to mention a decade-long US troop occupation of Syria's oil and gas fields in the northeast, which strangled the population, as part of efforts to overthrow secular Ba'ath leader Bashar al-Assad. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 13:20

Bessent Hails "Very Successful" China Talks As Trump-Xi Summit Puts AI, Rare Earths And Energy On The Table

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emerged from roughly eight hours of talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York on Sunday calling the meeting "very successful," with Washington and Beijing agreeing to new mechanisms covering trade and artificial intelligence just days before President Donald Trump hosts Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington.

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, shakes hands with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Sept. 20, 2026. Bai Xueqi/ | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

The talks, held at JPMorgan Chase headquarters, were intended to lay the groundwork for the Trump-Xi summit later this week. Working-level discussions are continuing as the two sides try to lock down whatever can be agreed before the leaders meet.

On paper, the immediate deliverables were relatively modest. In practice, the timing is anything but.

The two sides agreed to establish a U.S.-China AI dialogue, with Washington proposing a notification mechanism for AI incidents serious enough to reach the national-security level. Bessent framed the concept as an effort to move the world's two leading AI powers from opacity toward greater transparency and establish some common understanding of threats.

As we noted Friday, artificial intelligence was already emerging as one of the summit's most consequential issues, sitting alongside trade, semiconductors, Taiwan and rare earths. The two governments also moved to operationalize the previously proposed Board of Trade. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said negotiators are looking for baskets of "non-sensitive" goods that could potentially be treated separately from future trade restrictions. Washington is considering lower-tech Chinese consumer goods, while Beijing is looking at U.S. energy, agricultural products and potentially medical devices.

There was no announced breakthrough, however, on some of the much larger outstanding disputes, including Chinese rare-earth flows, additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods or Boeing aircraft. Advanced AI-chip export restrictions were also not part of Sunday's AI discussion.

Perhaps more revealing was how little Beijing itself said about AI. Xinhua described the talks as "candid, in-depth and constructive" before relegating the subject to the final sentence of its brief readout: "They also held dialogues on AI-related issues."

Chinese state media Xinhua has a very brief report on the Bessent and He Lifeng meeting in New York.

AI only mentioned in last line: “They also held dialogues on AI-related issues.” pic.twitter.com/HsUQmdujJ3

— Kyle Chan (@kyleichan) September 21, 2026

But Xi is also heading to Washington against a considerably different geopolitical backdrop than the one surrounding Trump's May visit to Beijing.

For starters, two of China's most attractive sources of discounted crude have been sharply constrained. Venezuela had become an important supplier of cheap heavy crude to Chinese refiners, but those flows fell dramatically after Washington's intervention in the country's oil trade earlier this year. As we noted at the time, Chinese refiners initially compensated by increasing purchases of heavily discounted Iranian barrels.

Meanwhile, the renewed U.S. campaign against Iran's oil exports disrupted shipments to Asia and left tens of millions of barrels in transit or floating storage. As we reported in July, roughly 63 million barrels of Iranian crude were at one point either moving or idling aboard tankers as sanctions pressure intensified. That does not mean China is running out of oil. Beijing accumulated large inventories and can source replacement barrels elsewhere, but the combination of reduced Venezuelan flows and disrupted Iranian supply has diminished some of the cheap-energy advantage Chinese refiners previously enjoyed.

Russia can fill part of that gap, but its own energy infrastructure remains under pressure from Ukrainian long-range attacks on refineries, export terminals and storage facilities. Earlier this month, Goldman estimated that the attacks had taken roughly 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity offline during August and early September. China has also encountered setbacks around another strategic chokepoint. Panama's Supreme Court voided Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison's concessions to operate the Balboa and Cristobal ports at opposite ends of the Panama Canal. As we noted in January, the ruling stripped the legal basis from a China-linked operator at two port facilities adjoining one of the world's most important shipping routes.

Then there is Greenland. Washington announced Friday that it had reached a security agreement intended to guarantee a long-term U.S. role on the island while preventing Russia, China and other non-NATO countries from establishing military bases there. The arrangement would strengthen the U.S. position in an Arctic region that both Washington and Beijing increasingly view as strategically important. On Monday, Denmark confirmed that the Trump-Greenland deal would boost arctic security. 

The political landscape across parts of Latin America has shifted as well. Reuters described Colombia's June election of Abelardo De La Espriella as part of a broader regional movement to the right that has also included Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Panama and Peru.

Brazil is now the major unresolved contest. As we noted last week, Polymarket pricing recently moved in favor of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Prediction-market prices are not opinion polls, however, and Monday's BTG Pactual/Nexus survey showed Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in a hypothetical runoff, within the survey's margin of error.

Markets, meanwhile, entered the weekend already showing signs of pressure. According to Newsquawk, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday 6.5bps higher at 5.004%, while the two-year rose 7.5bps to 4.745%, producing a modest bear flattening of the curve.

Yet Xi is hardly arriving in Washington without leverage of his own.

China still controls roughly 70% of global rare-earth mining and more than 85% of refining capacity, leaving Beijing with substantial influence over supply chains critical to U.S. autos, semiconductors, aerospace and defense. As we noted this weekend, disrupted Chinese yttrium shipments alone have already forced Western aerospace, energy and semiconductor companies to scramble for alternatives. Beijing also retains enormous manufacturing capacity, large accumulated energy inventories and considerable purchasing power over everything from American agricultural commodities to aircraft.

In other words, Thursday's summit is taking shape less as a grand reconciliation than an attempt by two heavily intertwined rivals to fence off portions of the relationship before the next confrontation.

Washington arrives with greater influence over Venezuelan oil flows, intensified pressure on Iran's exports, a strengthened strategic position around Greenland and reduced China-linked influence around the Panama Canal, while the political map across portions of Latin America has changed considerably.

Beijing arrives with its own formidable counters: dominant critical-mineral supply chains, a resilient manufacturing and export base, substantial energy reserves and enormous leverage as a buyer of U.S. goods. Oh, and let's not forget - open-weight AI models that have completely upended the frontier AI model. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 12:00

Key Events This Week: Trump-Xi Meeting, Fed Speakers, PMIs And Durables

After an extremely busy week for central bank decisions, the week ahead brings a mix of economic data, even more central bank decisions, lots of Fed speak, and geopolitical events.

The first read of the September PMIs across the major economies on Wednesday should provide the most timely update on global growth momentum, while investors will also be watching policy decisions from the Norges Bank, Riksbank and SNB on Thursday with their hike probabilities according to futures at 62%, 21% and 5% respectively, according to Deutsche Bank.

Attention will also turn to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday which will likely garner a lot of headlines. We also have opening week of the UN General Assembly debate in New York.

In the US, the focus will increasingly shift towards next Friday’s payrolls report, which will be the most important data release before the October FOMC meeting. Ahead of that, markets will be very keen to hear from a heavy schedule of Fed speakers throughout the week. These comments will frame last week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers delivered a widely expected rate increase but signalled a more hawkish policy outlook. The updated projections showed a strong majority of officials anticipating further tightening, while Chair Warsh emphasized that the Committee still sees limited evidence that policy is meaningfully restrictive.  

Fed communication begins today with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee alongside the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Tomorrow, investors receive the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. On the policy front, Fed Vice Chairs Williams and Jefferson are due to speak. Williams is viewed as one of the four officials who are still expected to see the Fed easing by the end of next year, so any hints on that outlook will be closely scrutinized.  

Wednesday’s main event will be the September flash PMIs. Economists expect the US manufacturing PMI to edge down to 53.6 from 53.9, while the services gauge is forecast to ease slightly to 55.9 from 56.5. Given the recent focus on AI-related investment and broader capex trends, these surveys will be watched closely for signs that business activity remains resilient. Fed Governor Barr is also due to speak. Investors will also be watching Wednesday's Treasury buyback announcement ahead of Thursday's 20-30yr operation, particularly after last month's decision to at least double the size of long-end buybacks.  

Thursday sees August new home sales and initial jobless claims. Last week continuing claims hit their lowest since January 2024. Fed speakers include Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson, offering further opportunities for markets to assess where officials stand after last week’s hawkish meeting. Friday’s US durable goods report will be particularly important from a growth perspective. Our economists expect headline orders to rise by 0.6% month-on-month, with orders excluding transportation and core capital goods both expected to increase by 1.1%. The data should provide one of the clearest indications yet of whether the recent strength in business investment is being sustained. Williams and Hammack are also due to speak on Friday.  

Here is a day-by-day calendar, courtesy of DB

Day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 21

• Data: US August Chicago Fed national activity index, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates
• Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee speaks, ECB’s Kazimir and Dolenc speak, BoC’s Macklem speaks

Tuesday September 22

• Data: US September Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, UK August public finances, Eurozone September consumer confidence
• Central banks: Fed's Williams, Jefferson and Barkin speak, ECB's Nagel and Sleijpen speak
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)
• Other: General debate of the UN’s General Assembly in New York (until September 28)

Wednesday September 23

• Data: US, UK, Germany, France and Eurozone September PMIs
• Central banks: Fed's Barr speaks, ECB's Vujcic, Zigman and Lane speak
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
• Other: OECD’s interim economic outlook

Thursday September 24

• Data: US August new home sales, September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, Q2 current account balance, initial jobless claims, Japan September PMIs, Germany September Ifo survey, France September consumer confidence, business confidence, EU27 August new car registrations, Canada July retail sales, Australia labour force survey
• Central banks: Central bank decisions in Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, Fed's Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson speak, ECB’s economic bulletin, BoE’s Dhingra, Breeden and Lombardelli speak
• Earnings: Costco
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)
• Other: US President Trump and China’s President Xi meeting in the US

Friday September 25

• Data: US August durable goods orders, September Kansas City Fed services activity, UK September GfK consumer confidence, Germany October GfK consumer confidence, Eurozone August M3
• Central banks: Fed's Williams and Hammack speak, ECB's Vujcic speaks

Looking at just the US, The key economic data release this week is the durable goods report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Barr on Wednesday, President Paulson on Thursday, President Hammack on Thursday and Friday, and President Williams on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Monday, September 21 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 06:30 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak about monetary policy at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On August 28, Goolsbee said, “As I look at the inflation data, we were above the target, then it was going the wrong way, then we got a couple of months of more benign readings but that certainly doesn’t feel like we’re out of the woods.”

Tuesday, September 22 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 10:05 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks during the New York Fed’s Treasury Market Conference. Speech text is expected. On September 2, Williams explained that “we are neither seeing second-round effects, nor unusual broadening of the effects of higher energy prices, and we are seeing well anchored inflation expectations,” though his comments came prior to September’s warmer CPI print.
• 10:20 AM Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at the New York Fed’s Treasury Market Conference on discount window modernization and Treasury market functioning. Speech text is expected.
• 01:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech to the CFA Society Baltimore. Speech text and Q&A are expected.

Wednesday, September 23 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, September preliminary (consensus 53.5, last 53.9); S&P Global US services PMI, September preliminary (consensus 56.0, last 56.5)
• 10:05 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on housing at the Chicago Fed Community Development Summit. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On September 1, Barr said, “A series of shocks—from tariffs and then the conflict in the Middle East, as well as from the rapid AI buildout—has pushed us off course. And core non-housing services inflation remains elevated.” He also added that “with inflation above target for a protracted period, there is a risk of broader price pressures taking hold, a risk I am watching closely.”

Thursday, September 24 

• 04:10 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion during the London Macro Policy Forum. Q&A is expected.
• 08:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a fireside chat at The Economic Club of Washington D.C. Q&A is expected.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 19 (GS 200k, consensus 200k, last 196k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 12 (consensus 1,750k, last 1,730k)
• 08:50 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the European Central Bank. Speech text is expected. On September 4, Hammack stated, “Both the hard data and the anecdotes are telling me the same thing: policy is not restrictive. Inflation is too high—and the longer it stays above our objective, the harder it will be to bring it back down…Right now, what I’m hearing is that it is time to act.”
• 10:00 AM New home sales, August (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.3%, last -10.5%)
• 10:10 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak about the economic outlook at the Tenth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed. Speech text is expected. On August 4, Paulson explained that she sees “two plausible scenarios for how current policy is affecting inflation.” One is that “the current setting of the federal funds rate is mildly restrictive and this will bring inflation to 2 percent in an acceptable time frame” and the other is that “current policy is not restrictive enough to deliver our target rate of 2 percent inflation.”

Friday, September 25 

• 05:15 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President Williams will participate in a policy panel during the 6th Monetary Economics Conference in Oxford, UK. Q&A is expected.
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, August preliminary (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.3%, last +1.1%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, August preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last flat); Core capital goods shipments, August preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.2%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 1.0% in the preliminary August report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.5% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting continued strength in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys in August—and a 0.3% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September final (GS 47.5, consensus 47.5, last 47.8): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, September final (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%)
• 2:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a policy panel discussion at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the European Central Bank. Q&A is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:55

Another Tanker Struck In Strait Of Hormuz As Iran's President Heads To NY

Just as the Iranian delegation of President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to fly to New York City for this week's UN General Assembly, where it's expected that the Iranians could be engaged in some sideline diplomacy with the White House, another tanker incident has unfolded off in the Persian Gulf area.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency is reporting Monday that an oil tanker has been "struck by an unknown projectile" while on an inbound transit route in the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result of the attack under as yet unknown circumstances two crew members suffered "minor injuries". But the vessel is reportedly in good enough shape to continue on to its next port of call.

It may have been the result of a small drone, given what appears to only be light damage or an incident not significant enough to put the vessel out of commission. Tehran is seeking to keep its leverage and 'control' over the vital energy transit waterway.

"Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO," the reiterated. 

But oil prices have slid to their lowest in 11 days amid optimism that Iran's Pezeshkian could hold talks with US officials, or else could engage in renewed diplomacy via mediators on the UN sidelines.

Trump in a Sunday Fox News interview actually indicated openness to a meeting with Pezeshkian, in a first of the war. Trump was asked about the high level UN meeting and surprisingly he went so far as to say he would "probably be open" to meeting with the Iranian president.

Still, this was all coupled with threats. In Trump's mind, there seem to be three options on the table, or as he put it--"to obliterate Iran, letting it rot economically or reach a deal."

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, has observed, "It seems that a degree of risk premium is being removed from oil prices on hopes that a diplomatic path to de-escalate the US-Iran war may arrive this week."

Meanwhile, a regional US commander has claimed that oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest level in six months. This is being hailed as a sign that US naval protection and mine-clearing efforts could finally be paying off.

Iran has meanwhile over the weekend once again warned US allies in the region that they'll be considered "complicit" if the US resumes it military assault on the Islamic Republic. The Iranian military HQ stated that "any mistakes will result in painful attacks."

Iran’s President Will Enter the U.S. DURING the War for the UN Meeting

This is VERY RISKY

President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to travel to New York in the coming days to address the UN General Assembly and meet world leaders.

The security situation is extraordinary. Dr.… pic.twitter.com/AtY24KDYEd

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) September 20, 2026

Tehran further indicated Sunday that it is still awaiting Trump's response to its conditions for ending the war. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed to AFP that Iran's demands were sent to Washington via the Qataris. The US could decide to convey its counter offer while the Pezeshkian delegation is in town.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:45

US Futures Rise, Near All-Time High, As Oil, Yields Drop On US-China Diplomacy Optimism

US futures are higher driven by Trump / Xi optimism around AI, Middle East, and trade with Middle East kinetic headlines over the weekend reflecting a pause to escalation. Sentiment was lifted by signs of progress on geopolitical issues: it’s a big week for talks, with Trump set for a summit with China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday and a possibility of talks with Iran’s president at the UN General Assembly. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.7%, rising to 7,770 and less than 1% from all time highs, as Nasdaq futures gain 1.1%, with tech strength on full display in APAC trade and also leading in premarket US trading with broad-based strength across Semis, Memory, and Mag7. Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives with the AI theme boosting Tech / Industrials within Cyclicals. Within Defensives, both healthcare and staples have pockets of strength as today looks like a broad-based rally in both the SPX and within Tech. WTI is below $100, dropping for a fourth day, fuel prices are lower, while bond traders reckon the Fed will succeed in its fight against inflation helping drive bond yields lower as the yield curve bull flattens, as the USD drops to session lows. This is bidding up risk assets with Equities leading. The Fed’s Goolsbee speaks 6.30am with previous speakers Fri / Sun offering a hawkish view which reiterates Warsh’s key points. According to JPM, given the macro and earnings strength, the market may be underpricing the number of hikes through YE27. There is little on today's calendar: we get the Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (est. -0.04) at 8:30am ET.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Meta climbs about 2% after shares in the social media giant sold off on Friday. Tesla +1.5%, Alphabet +0.3%, Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.7%, Microsoft +0.4%, Apple unchanged.

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin trades above $84,000, near an eight-month high.
• Accenture (ACN) gains 4% after Anthropic partnered with the technology consulting company to test the safety of its advanced artificial intelligence models.
• Alkermes (ALKS) climbs 8% after announcing positive Phase 1b results for ALKS 7290 in adults With attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder.
• Arhaus (ARHS) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the furniture company to buy, writing that it has “newfound optimism on the retailer’s strategy to elevate brand awareness” and improve market share.
• Candel Therapeutics (CADL) gains 6% after BofA upgraded the biotech company to buy, citing optimism about a prostate cancer treatment.
• Ciena (CIEN) rises 5% after Evercore ISI raised the recommendation to outperform, citing the way data centers are boosting demand for optical networking equipment.
• Critical Metals (CRML) soars 24% after President Donald Trump said the he reached an agreement with Denmark over Greenland that would give the US “permanent control over security” of the Arctic island. In April, Critical Metals agreed to acquire European Lithium Ltd., giving it full ownership of a rare earth project in Greenland.
• Securitize (SECZ) rises 8% after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a recommendation of overweight as it sees the tokenization company benefiting from recent Securities and Exchange Commission guidance.
• Warner Bros. (WBD) is up 7% and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 6% as the latter is in settlement talks with California officials over its planned acquisition of the former.

In other corporate news, settlement talks between Paramount Skydance and California officials over the planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery are said to include a financial penalty if the company fails to make good on a promise to distribute 30 films per year in theaters. Nscale, a developer of AI data centers that counts Nvidia and Microsoft among its partners, filed for an IPO. Novo Nordisk shares fell after the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy outlined its 2030 strategic ambitions, targeting revenue CAGR in line with industry peers. SoftBank is seeking the equivalent of more than $11 billion in what would be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever to fund OpenAI investments in OpenAI

Global markets are firmer across the board, helped by lower energy prices despite heightened geopolitical tensions over the weekend. Brent is down about 2% as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are parsed, while oil and LNG flows through Hormuz hit a six-month high. The Houthis said they attacked sensitive sites in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu over the weekend, while US President Trump reportedly said that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran. One source of potential optimism is the commentary following US-China trade talks, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent describing talks as "successful" on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue. For the Trump-Xi meeting - which is Xi’s first trip to the US in three years - trade, AI, critical minerals, industrial capacity, Taiwan, Ukraine and the Middle East are all on the bingo card.

The “feedback from the talks between China and the US is feeding a positive narrative as the week begins,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “That said, for me oil prices remain the key driver.”

“The market doesn’t really need any grand bargain,” says Panmure Liberum’s Mark Taylor, who thinks signs of “amicable agreement to manage tensions” will be enough to support risk appetite. “However, if fresh tariff threats, tech restrictions or hostile commentary resurface, it could quickly revive the trade-war risk aversion,” he adds.

For today, oil is also a major risk-on driver. In a sign that US naval protection and mine-clearing efforts in the Strait of Hormuz were paying off, a regional US commander said oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the waterway reached their highest level in six months, which almost helped push Brent below $100. Trump told Fox News he would “probably” be open to meeting his Iranian counterpart on the sidelines of the UN assembly this week.

Meanwhile, as BBG notes, the AI debate continues to rumble on, with the narrative to positive over the weekend, despite some news reports of a looming drop in memory prices. South Korea’s chip exports surged nearly 260% year-on-year in the first 20 days of September, to a record $34.1 billion. Accenture shares surged after it was chosen by Anthropic to test the safety of AI models, and SocGen said AI could help it make substantial cost savings.

But there’s still a lot of caution. Citi’s CEO said companies are racing to build up their defenses as AI models become more powerful and risk spurring cyber attacks. Today’s Big Take looks at how AI risk is making CIOs nervous. Elsewhere, opposition to data centers continues to mount: Data Center Watch said some 45 projects worth $68 billion were blocked or delayed by local pushback during the second quarter.

“AI is clearly becoming the next major area of strategic competition, but the fact that both sides are at least discussing a mechanism for dialogue is constructive,” said Mohit Mirpuri, senior partner at SGMC Capital Pte. “Markets don’t necessarily need Trump and Xi to resolve all their differences on Thursday, they mainly need reassurance that those differences remain manageable and don’t spill back into another trade or technology shock.”

And then there is inflation: price pressures continue to show up, with US retail diesel prices topping $6.50 a gallon for the first time, copper holding gains and food shock risks making headlines. Fed’s Kashkari said inflation remains too high and that pressures have broadened beyond the oil-price shock of the Iran war.

European shares gain as cooling oil and gas prices ease inflation concerns, while optimism ahead of this week’s China-US summit also lifts sentiment. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.9% with tech outperforming while healthcare falls after Novo Nordisk disappointed investors who were hoping to see more robust sales targets at the company’s capital markets day. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Kuehne+Nagel shares rise as much as 6% following the freight transportation firm’s collaboration with US tech behemoth Amazon, which will include providing assistance on logistics services and infrastructure for Amazon Web Services.
• Lundbeck gains as much as 4.6% after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying the company is potentially on track to turn around its R&D activities, and notes several upcoming key trial readouts.
• Lotus Bakeries gains as much as 6.2% after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying the company is potentially on track to turn around its R&D activities, and notes several upcoming key trial readouts
• Huber+Suhner shares rise as much as 5.6%, recouping the losses booked on Friday after the maker of telecommunication products held its capital markets day.
• Industrie De Nora shares rise as much as 5.9%, extending a rally after Italy agreed to cover full costs for its Gigafactory project, according to a statement.
• Novo shares fall as much as 7.7% after the Danish firm outlined its 2030 strategic ambitions at its Capital Markets Day in London.
• Ayvens shares drop as much as 6.2% after the fleet management company outlined its new 2029 strategic plan. Jefferies said the new targets are “more realistic than ambitious.”
• VW shares fall as much as 2.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded the German carmaker to hold from buy citing a profit warning that offset positives from a restructuring program.
• Craneware shares fall as much as 25% after the healthcare software company cut its revenue guidance for FY27 amid disruption caused by a cyber security incident.
• Ipsen drops as much as 7.8% after Amneal Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval for its generic version of somatuline.

Asian stocks advanced as an extended rally in semiconductor shares and a decline in oil prices supported investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose more than 1%, heading for a fourth straight session of gains. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and MediaTek were the top contributors to the gauge’s increase. South Korea’s Kospi was the best performer in the region. Markets in Japan were shut for a holiday. “Friday’s Wall Street session has aided sentiment in the AI names early, with the US semiconductor index rising close to 3%, led by the memory names as contract prices keep rising,” said Josh Gilbert, lead APAC analyst at Etoro. “Korea and Taiwan carry the most exposure to that, which is why we’ve seen buyers return to Asia, with flows coming back into the region after a run of selling.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up about 23% so far this year. However, the gauge has risen just 0.3% so far in September as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate hike, persistent inflation concerns, elevated bond yields and growing unease over the

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near unchanged. USD/JPY is back on a 157 handle after Friday’s reported rate check.

In rates, treasuries trade near session highs in early US session, supported by steeper gains across European bond markets as oil prices slide, leaving Brent crude on track for the longest run of declines since June. Energy prices are easing amid diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war and signs cargoes are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury coupon auctions of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes commence Tuesday. US yields are 3bp to 4bp richer across the curve with front-end lagging slightly, flattening 2s10s and 2s5s spreads by ~1.5bp. 10-year is around 4.955% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1.5bp and 3.5bp. In Europe, French bonds outperform, moving the French-German 10-year yield spread back below 100bp; 105bps spread reached Friday was the widest since 2012. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few deals already.  Dealers expect around $40 billion of new issuance this week, possibly including Sysco Corp., which is preparing a roughly $17 billion bond sale. This week’s Treasury note auctions include $69 billion 2-year Tuesday, $70 billion 5-year Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year Thursday.

are on the decline with the US 10-year borrowing cost down 4bps at 4.96% - note, cash trade was closed overnight due to the Japanese market holiday. Yields in the UK and Germany are also lower, with the pullback in energy outweighing mounting political risks for the latter. French 10-year bonds are outperforming after being trounced on Friday and the OAT-bund yield spread is back below 100 basis points.

In commodities, WTI crude futures are down almost 3%, Brent is down more than 2% as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are parsed, while oil and LNG flows through Hormuz hit a six-month high. Spot gold is down 0.8%. The crypto rally is extending with Bitcoin up 4.7% and at levels not seen since January. 

US economic data slate includes August Chicago Fed national activity index at 8:30 a.m. Fed speaker slate is blank for Monday.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Oil prices slid to their lowest in 11 days on Monday as investors ‌hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's UN meeting, and eyed a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia. Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude touched their lowest since September 10 earlier on Monday. The Brent contract for November was at $101.75 a barrel at 0859 GMT, down $2.12, or 2%. RTRS
• The Iran war has created a new shortage on the oil market. This time the scarce commodity isn’t just crude—it is the ships that carry it. Drone attacks that shut Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline earlier this month have forced more crude back through the Strait of Hormuz and onto a tanker fleet already stretched thin. WSJ
• The US and China have agreed to set up an AI dialogue ahead of a high-stakes summit on Thursday in Washington between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had negotiated the creation of an AI dialogue mechanism, which was floated when Trump met Xi in Beijing in May, in talks with Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng in New York on Sunday. FT
• China is more than halfway toward its pledge to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans this year, but a commitment to purchase at least another $17 billion of American farm products has largely stalled. BBG
• OpenAI projects it will burn through almost $280bn by the end of 2030, highlighting its huge long-term funding needs as the AI company pushes for a valuation of more than $1.2tn in fresh investment talks. The company expects negative free cash flow of $278bn over five years from 2026 to 2030 as it invests aggressively to expand its access to computing power. FT
• Friedrich Merz vowed to stay on as German chancellor after his CDU suffered heavy losses in state elections. The party won just 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, shutting it out of a regional assembly for the first time in the country’s postwar history. BBG
• SoftBank’s seeking the equivalent of over $11 billion for AI investments in what would be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever, people familiar said. BBG
• Wall Street banks are expecting the US to borrow up to $1tn over the next year by selling short-term Treasury bills as part of a growing dependence on quick-maturing debt that leaves Washington vulnerable to rising interest rates. FT
• The Fed’s Austan Goolsbee warned the central bank cannot ignore repeated and persistent supply shocks, and must respond in a way that may cause economic hardship. BBG
• Investors are betting on a Fed win the inflation fight, turning bullish on front-end Treasuries. Two-year yields remain well above the central bank’s range, offering scope for the securities to rally if inflation eases or rate hikes are less than priced. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with cautious gains seen for most of the region ahead of this week's key meetings in the US, including the UN General Assembly and the Trump-Xi summit, while there are also thinned conditions with the closure of Japanese markets through to Wednesday. ASX 200 was uneventful amid mixed M&A related headlines and further RBA rate hike calls, with CBA bringing forward its rate hike call to September from November, while ANZ expects hikes in both September and November. KOSPI outperformed as tech stocks took impetus from the advances in the Nasdaq last Friday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mildly higher ahead of the Trump-Xi summit this week and after US and Chinese officials held talks in New York ahead of the leaders' meeting, with China's top trade negotiator describing the discussions as 'not bad', while state media noted the sides had frank, in-depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, as well as holding dialogue on AI-related issues.

Top Asian News

• Japan's government will work with major machinery manufacturers to collect machine-learning data for physical AI applications such as autonomous robots and assigning unique IDs to factory equipment to enable cross-vendor data aggregation, according to Nikkei.
• Japan is poised to ease restrictions on regional bank loans for AI and energy projects, Nikkei reported.
• China's CPC Politburo met to discuss draft documents to be submitted to the Fifth Plenary Session (26th-29th October), with Chinese President Xi presiding.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.0%) are firmer across the board, helped by lower energy prices despite heightened geopolitical tensions over the weekend. The Houthis said they attacked sensitive sites in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu over the weekend, while US President Trump reportedly said that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran. One source of potential optimism is the commentary following US-China trade talks, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent describing talks as "successful" on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Tech tops the sector pile, with Industrials and Basic Resources following closely behind. To the downside is Health Care, with Optimised Personal Care and Energy rounding out the sector laggards. Explaining the underperformance in Health Care is the downbeat reaction in Novo shares (-5%) after they announced their 2030 ambitions. The drugmaker plans to launch over 5 blockbusters by the end of 2030 and targets pipeline sales of over DKK 150bln in 2035.

Top European News

• German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster’ in regional elections with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while the centre-left SPD is projected as 35.5% of votes and the far-right AfD is expected to get 37.0% of votes, according to exit polls. Merz's conservatives are projected at 20% of votes in the Berlin state election, while the Left Party is seen at 24.5%, SPD is seen at 12%, and AfD is seen at 16% in Berlin.
• Scope downgraded France’s long-term ratings to 'A+' from 'AA-' and revised the outlook to stable; DBRS affirmed France at 'AA', lowered the French outlook to negative.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mixed against a flat USD this morning. The Antipodeans are mildly firmer, benefiting from the risk tone, whilst the Loonie and JPY are the marginal laggards.
• DXY currently holds within 100.20 to 100.37 range, and towards the highs made post-FOMC last week. Newsflow for the Dollar has been lacking this morning; oil prices are slipping off highs, despite ongoing supply disruptions, as attention turns to the UN General Assembly Council this week, alongside the summit between President Trump and Xi. The current mood between the two is positive; Trump recently suggested that he and Xi get on “very well”, whilst Treasury Sec Bessent suggested they had a very successful engagement with the Chinese on trade and AI.
• JPY is a touch lower this morning, giving back some of the strength made last Friday. The Nikkei reported that the BoJ conducted a “rate check” on that Friday, which helped curtail some of JPY pressure seen following the Bank’s dovishly perceived rate decision. This makes evident that the Japanese officials remain ready and active in the market to keep USD/JPY from approaching the 160.00 mark once again. If market expectations of a Fed-BoJ divergence continue to grow, then it may prove to be difficult for Japan to significantly prevent another bout of upside in the pair. Do note that Japan is away on holiday and returns on Thursday; as such, the lower-volume environment could provide a decent opportunity for the MoF to enact some intervention.
• EUR is essentially flat vs USD, despite political uncertainty from within the region. Firstly, two regional elections were held in Germany over the weekend; the ruling CDU party performed terribly, falling short of the 5% threshold to enter state parliament in one state. There is now mounting pressure on current Chancellor Merz to resign, though he announced that he will stay in office and “fight on”. The state election results point out the issues the German population is currently facing, but for now, it will remain a regional problem. It will likely have little impact on the federal government itself; as such, the EUR is little changed.

Fixed Income

• USTs (+8 ticks) are stronger this morning, benefiting from 1) falling energy prices and 2) markets awaiting the US-China meeting at the White House on Thursday. On the first point, supply disruptions remain, and Trump recently said he is thinking of “blowing up” all of Iran. It seems as if markets are shifting their attention to the UNGA this week, with Trump reportedly set to meet Gulf leaders and then President Xi. There may be growing hopes that a framework agreement/deal can be ironed out; recent reports have noted that Pakistan’s Interior Minister has travelled to Iran.
• Yields are lower across the curve, with very slight underperformance at the belly. The US 10-year (4.96%) has now slipped below the key 5.00% mark, given the aforementioned energy dynamics. A constructive UNGA mood and/or geopolitical progress could help the 10-year continue to slip to near-term lows, with 4.92% a likely area of support (low from 18 Sep).
• Gilts (+72 ticks) outperform vs peers, and currently hold towards the upper end of an 85.28 to 85.76 range. UK-specific news flow has been focused on pre-budget speculation around housing and CGT, but with action in UK paper today ultimately driven by energy dynamics. On trade relations, UK PM Burnham is set to meet US President Trump this week. Reports suggest that the talks between the pair will focus on the Middle East, energy costs and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• EGBs dominate the fixed income space this morning. Bunds after the latest state parliamentary elections, and OATs after sovereign updates and the latest fiscal disclosure. However, despite these points, EGBs are firmer with the marked energy pullback providing relief and some caveats/points to look to with reference to Bunds and OATs specifically.
• For Germany, the Grand Coalition’s CDU had a disaster in the two elections, while their SPD partner fared somewhat better. Within Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU are set to come in below the 5% threshold to enter state parliament, while AfD won with 38.2% but PSD a near second on 35.5%; a point that provides some relief, as there is no appetite to work with AfD, and thus SPD will likely lead a SPD-Green-Die Linke combination of some description in the region. For now, we await the final results of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to confirm if CDU has missed the threshold. Thereafter, we look for signs of more pressure on Chancellor Merz and whether the Grand Coalition may look for an alternative to him, a ‘Kanzlertausch’, given the September regional election outcomes and his personal low approval rating.
• Turning to OATs, firstly digesting the trend cut to negative from stable at DBRS, due to “the risk of the government failing to address fiscal imbalances is increasing, leading to a continued rise in the government debt ratio over the medium term”. Additionally, Scope cut France to A+ (prev. AA-), primarily due to the deteriorating fiscal outlook.

Commodities

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are softer after initially advancing at the open on weekend escalation, including a Houthi attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu and Trump reportedly saying he was considering “blowing up” Iran. Prices subsequently reversed as the immediate escalation failed to develop further and Trump also signalled openness to meeting Iran’s President. Further, there may be some hopes that the Trump-Xi meeting this week may help simmer down some geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This morning’s picture remains mixed in terms of newsflow: the IRGC said it shot down a US MQ-1 drone over Hormuz and warned the war “is not over”, while Pakistan’s Interior Minister is heading to Tehran, with conflicting reports over whether the trip involves US-Iran mediation. WTI Nov trades close to the bottom of a USD 93.46-97.22/bbl range, while Brent Dec nearer to the lower end of a USD 96.97-100.22/bbl range. Dutch TTF is sharply softer (-3.8%) alongside the broader pullback in the energy complex within a EUR 76.85-80.55/MWh range.
• Precious metals are softer as the Dollar remains firm in the face of lower oil prices. Spot gold trades around USD 4,350/oz within a USD 4,342-4,383/oz range, and with the 100 DMA at USD 4,319/oz today. Spot silver similarly trades flat on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 66.40/oz) in a narrow USD 65.73-67.05/oz parameter.
• Base metals are firmer despite the cautious broader backdrop, extending some of last week’s gains. COMEX copper trades near the upper end of a USD 6.60-6.66/lb range, and 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 14,540.50-14,688.00/t parameter, with the complex supported by the generally positive tone across Chinese markets ahead of the Trump-Xi summit and after constructive US-China trade discussions in New York.
• Kazakhstan oil shipments to Ust-Luga were recorded at 200k metric tons in August, according to Interfax.
• French Finance Minister Lescure said France’s strategic oil stocks are full.
• Naftogaz said ORLEN (PKN PW) will supply up to USD 500mln of petroleum products to Ukraine to stabilise the market and deliver three LNG cargoes in Q1 2027.
• South Africa's Pretoria is reportedly looking to leverage its role as a platinum supplier to help integrate into the US and China, Semafor reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they had a very successful engagement with the Chinese on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue and the US suggested a notification system between the two countries. Bessent separately commented that he is likely to meet the Chinese delegation in two months and they discussed extending the trade truce, although no pact was reached, according to FT citing an interview following Bessent's meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng.
• USTR Greer said they implemented a board of trade, with the US and Chinese teams to continue working on a board of trade agreement, while the board of trade from the Chinese side is likely to include consumer goods and low-tech items.
• China's top trade negotiator Li said trade talks are ‘not bad’ and that talks will continue on Monday among the working group, while he confirmed that both sides discussed AI along with trade and investment.
• Chinese state media noted that China and the US conducted frank, in-depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, while they held dialogue on issues related to AI.
• US and China were reported on Friday to be discussing cutting tariffs on US LNG ahead of Xi's visit, with potential USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cuts, while the visit could bring broader energy and agricultural deals.
• China reportedly purchases more US soy cargoes ahead of the President Trump-Xi meeting.
• Indian Trade Minister said a trade agreement with New Zealand will provide duty-free access to New Zealand for 100% of India's exports.

Central Banks

• Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said inflation remains too high and that price pressures have expanded beyond the oil-price shock from the Iran war and are affecting the broader economy.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Donald Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House, while Fox News reporter Yungst said Trump told him during a phone call that "very big things are going to be happening" soon. Furthermore, Trump said his options are ‘wiping out’ the regime, letting it ‘rot economically’ under naval blockade, or striking a deal, according to Fox News and The Telegraph.
• US President Trump said on Friday that the Iran War will end soon, adding that once the war ends, US gasoline prices will revert to prior levels and could even fall further. US President Trump confirmed on Friday the US is talking to the Houthis, saying they want a deal, while adding "we'll see" on whether to annihilate Iran.
• US CENTCOM commander Cooper said oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks reached the highest levels in six months. More US troops had reportedly died amid the Iran war than the Pentagon disclosed publicly, according to a report on Friday in the Washington Post.
• Pakistani Interior Minister travelled to Iran today, IRNA reported. Tasnim later reported that the trip is unrelated to Iran-US matters and will focus on bilateral relations and cooperation, with the report adding that Pakistan is not carrying a message between Iran and the US.
• Iranian officials conveyed their conditions to mediators for re-engaging in negotiations for ending the war with the US, while the conditions include ending the war on all fronts and the naval blockade, as well as unfreezing Iranian funds and they also want an end to the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemeni Houthis.
• IRGC spokesman said all of the US' superior technologies pale in comparison to Iran's offensive and defensive capabilities, adding that Tehran are defining the new regime in the region, not America, and the war is not over and continues. The spokesman added that the IRGC has prepared itself for a long-term war and that they have new targets and weapons ready if the US launches a new attack.
• IRGC said it shot down a US MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, reported at 07:30 UTC. A tanker conducting an inbound transit was struck by an unknown projectile.
• Qatar's PM Al-Thani said Gulf states need to cooperate to restore regional stability and help reach a settlement between the US and Iran. It was separately reported that Qatar's Energy Minister said US Treasury Secretary Bessent is "wrong" in saying that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be worthless in two years.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Press Secretary Peskov said there have been no progress in negotiations on Ukraine yet but remains open to further talks, IFX reported.
• UK Burnham hopes to build bridges with US President Trump at their first meeting and wants to press the case for the US to help Ukraine with air-defence systems.
• Moscow Oil Refinery was hit during a drone attack that was part of Ukraine's largest barrage this year.

Geopolitics: Other

• US, Denmark and Greenland reached a security agreement that expands the US’s role on the Arctic island to end the row that threatened NATO.
• North Korea launched two missiles off its eastern coast on Sunday. It was also reported that North Korea rejected an IAEA resolution on its nuclear program and vowed to keep its status as a nuclear-armed state.
• Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi and US Defence Secretary Hegseth agreed in a phone call to further strengthen security ties.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.04, prior -0.08

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For 2026 standards, its been a relatively quiet weekend news wise but yesterday saw more, albeit expected, heavy defeats for the ruling CDU in two German state elections with a surge in support for the far right AfD in one and the far left Die Linke in the other. Chancellor Merz called the early results "a disaster" but vowed to press on with reforms. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD won 38.3% of the vote, roughly double its support from the previous election in 2021 and enough to make it the largest party in the state even if a coalition to keep them out of power is likely. The shock was that the CDU didn't even make the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time in the country’s post-World War II history. So this will create huge amounts of political pressure on the Chancellor and raise questions about the reform agenda.  

Meanwhile, in Berlin, the Left Party (Die Linke) emerged as the biggest force with 25.3%, ahead of the CDU and Greens. The mainstream parties seem to be caught in a continued pincer movement. On the far-right the AfD continues to gain support on anti-immigration and anti-establishment themes, particularly in eastern Germany, while the Left appears to have capitalised on concerns over housing affordability, living costs and social inequality. For markets, the immediate implication is not a change in national policy, but a further weakening of Germany’s political centre and another reminder that the forces driving political polarisation across Europe remain alive and well.

Also over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US, Denmark and Greenland had reached an agreement that would allow a significant expansion of the US military presence on the island, with Trump describing the deal as giving the US “permanent control over security” in Greenland. The agreement falls well short of Trump’s earlier ambitions to acquire Greenland, while Danish and Greenlandic leaders stressed that it explicitly recognises Greenland’s right to self-determination and Danish sovereignty. Taken at face value, if this agreement holds it actually reduces event risk, as the Greenland issue could easily have come back to be a high tension hotspot in the months ahead.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are advancing led by technology shares supported by optimism from US-China trade talks ahead of the much anticipated summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping later this week. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.79%) is outperforming with Japanese markets closed for the three-day Silver Week holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.57%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.55%) and the CSI 300 (+0.42%) are all trading moderately higher. S&P 500 (+0.41%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.54%) and Stoxx (+0.55%) futures are all higher. Brent is -2.21% lower at $101.65/bbl which is helping. It's been above $100/bbl again since September 9th, and although US cash Treasury trading hasn't commenced due to the Japanese holiday, US and European bond futures are all notably higher this morning.  

Moving on, the week ahead brings a mix of economic data, central bank decisions, lots of Fed speak, and geopolitical events. The first read of the September PMIs across the major economies on Wednesday should provide the most timely update on global growth momentum, while investors will also be watching policy decisions from the Norges Bank, Riksbank and SNB on Thursday with their hike probabilities according to futures at 62%, 21% and 5% respectively. Elsewhere, attention will turn to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday which will likely garner a lot of headlines. Indeed they already have overnight as discussed above. See our Geopolitics team's preview of the summit here. We also have opening week of the UN General Assembly debate in New York.  
In the US, the focus will increasingly shift towards next Friday’s payrolls report, which will be the most important data release before the

October FOMC meeting. Ahead of that, markets will be very keen to hear from a heavy schedule of Fed speakers throughout the week. These comments will frame last week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers delivered a widely expected rate increase but signalled a more hawkish policy outlook. The updated projections showed a strong majority of officials anticipating further tightening, while Chair Warsh emphasised that the Committee still sees limited evidence that policy is meaningfully restrictive.  

Fed communication begins today with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee alongside the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Tomorrow, investors receive the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. On the policy front, Fed Vice Chairs Williams and Jefferson are due to speak. Our economists view Williams as one of the four officials who are still expected to see the Fed easing by the end of next year, so any hints on that outlook will be closely scrutinised.  

Wednesday’s main event will be the September flash PMIs. Our economists expect the US manufacturing PMI to edge up to 54.0 from 53.9, while the services gauge is forecast to ease slightly to 56.1 from 56.5. Given the recent focus on AI-related investment and broader capex trends, these surveys will be watched closely for signs that business activity remains resilient. Fed Governor Barr is also due to speak. Investors will also be watching Wednesday's Treasury buyback announcement ahead of Thursday's 20-30yr operation, particularly after last month's decision to at least double the size of long-end buybacks.  

Thursday sees August new home sales and initial jobless claims. Last week continuing claims hit their lowest since January 2024. Fed speakers include Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson, offering further opportunities for markets to assess where officials stand after last week’s hawkish meeting. Friday’s US durable goods report will be particularly important from a growth perspective. Our economists expect headline orders to rise by 0.6% month-on-month, with orders excluding transportation and core capital goods both expected to increase by 1.1%. The data should provide one of the clearest indications yet of whether the recent strength in business investment is being sustained. Williams and Hammack are also due to speak on Friday.  

Recapping last week now and it was a story of two halves that left most assets little changed from where they started the week. The first half saw a fresh rise in energy prices that led to renewed fears of stagflation, and we even saw the 10yr Treasury yield close above 5% for the first time since 2007. But on Wednesday, the Fed delivered their first rate hike since 2023, which seems to help ease inflation fears with a delay but the reality was that energy price falls were the more important theme reversing the yield spikes.  

Brent crude oil prices were down -0.71% on the week (-0.91% Friday), closing at $103.87/bbl after approaching $110/bbl in the first half of the week. That marked a reversal after a +17.1% jump over the previous two weeks. While oil prices stabilised, sovereign bond yields still extended their rise overall. For instance, the 10yr Treasury yield reached an intraday peak of 5.04% last Tuesday, before ending the week at 5.00%, up +2.9bps on the week (+6.5bps Friday). Meanwhile in Germany, the 10yr bund yield also hit an intraday peak of 3.57% on the Wednesday, before ending the week -1.4bps overall at 3.52%. French bonds underperformed, with the 10yr spread over bunds closing above 100bps on Friday for the first time since 2012. In absolute terms, the 10yr French yield also hit a post-2008 high on Friday of 4.56%.  

This backdrop meant equities saw modest losses last week, with the S&P 500 down just -0.08% (+0.17% Friday). The index was boosted by some of the big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 up +1.05% last week, marking its 4th consecutive weekly gain. However, small cap stocks struggled by comparison, with the Russell 2000 down -1.50% last week. After the AI doomerism of the previous weekend, the Philly Semiconductor index (SOX) closed up +0.73% after being down nearly -6% on Monday. Meanwhile in Europe, there were slightly larger declines, with the STOXX 600 down -0.57% (-1.11% Friday).

Elsewhere, there were some sizeable moves in FX last week, with the dollar index up +1.11% after the Fed’s hike, marking its biggest weekly gain since June. Conversely, the Japanese Yen weakened -2.08% against the US Dollar last week, which marked its biggest weekly decline since October 2025. That followed the BoJ’s 25bp rate hike, but the move was already priced in and two members voted against the hike, so markets interpreted the decision in a dovish light.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:36

Same Crowd, New Apocalypse...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

They received a new brief. The instant the AI-doom circuit kicked into gear the same 'protesters' who spent years on climate, oil and "Palestine" are back on the street with fresh banners declaring 'the end is nigh'.

The clips looping across X could be any march of the last decade. Same wardrobe. Same slogans. Same dead-eyed rhythm.

Only the monster changed.

And just like that the Retard Brigade has moved on from "Palestine" and onto the robots.

It's actually hilarious.... pic.twitter.com/SToBv9kE4B

— Dave Rubin (@RubinReport) September 18, 2026

Yesterday, dozens of them marched from OpenAI's Mission Bay headquarters to Anthropic's offices beside Salesforce's Dreamforce crowd, then on to San Francisco City Hall. 'Stop the AI Race' wanted Mayor Daniel Lurie to declare a local "AI state of emergency." Chalk on the pavement read "Extinction is on the table." Staff at both labs were told to quit.

Organiser Michaël Trazzi said industry leaders had asked Washington to regulate and been turned down. Fellow organiser Hunter Glenn told reporters, "I was pretty scared about the possibility of extinction for awhile," and called AI safety a bipartisan cause.

Other demonstrations dubbed 'PauseAI' and 'Pull The Plug' assembled outside Downing Street in London after Anthropic alignment lead Evan Hubinger said he personally believed there was a greater than 10 percent chance AI could "kill all humans" within a decade.

Their line: "10% chance of extinction? 100% chance of resistance."

I wish they'd make their minds up -

I thought climate change was going to wipeout the world !

— LindaTG1810 (@ltg1810) September 18, 2026

??Suddenly, Gaza is out and AI doomsday is in for the professional protest class. Which of course means all the leftwing billionaire and Chinese money has switched causes.

Funny how this all works, huh? pic.twitter.com/47kY2pkvnZ

— ??David Blackmon?? (@EnergyAbsurdity) September 18, 2026

These groups are full of pliable, already-petrified people who need the next extinction story the way some people need a weather report. Climate was going to cook them. A virus was going to finish them. Oil was going to drown them. "Palestine" was going to moralise them. Now the robots will delete them. They are desperate to believe anything will wipe them out, because a life without a scheduled apocalypse leaves them with nothing to virtue chant about.

That is why the propaganda works. They live wracked with fear and stay wide open to scaremongering on every topic conceivable. Hand them some dodgy stats and a Netflix documentary and they will screech into the streets. The content of the threat is secondary.

?.?.

The retards are on the march. As usual.

The Commies have made this "the current thing."

And, for them, the issue is never the issue. The issue is the revolution. pic.twitter.com/ok4UXDSvCJ

— GuardAmerican? (@GuardAmerican) September 18, 2026

Braindead protestors at it again. Look at the profile for this @Channel4News in the UK. It's literally ALL fear mongering.

Protestors in 2026:
-No Kings
-Free Palestine
-Reflecting pool
-ICE
-It's OK to kill your kids

Now: AI is going to kill us. pic.twitter.com/juDOWLlaXU

— Topher (@TopherGotWifi) September 18, 2026

They really are NPC robots getting a new chip inserted.

— Neal Asher (@nealasher) September 18, 2026

"Ima feeling hela cute today, gonna protest the future!"

— baranoww (@WBaranowski) September 18, 2026

Yup.... https://t.co/H6Zvy22Ype pic.twitter.com/IxqDtixC8a

— Tim J Baxter. Get Off My Beach! (@TJ69B) September 19, 2026

A U.S. pause would hand China the century's defining technology and freeze the labs already winning. Sam Altman went to Congress in 2023 asking for tighter rules after OpenAI already held a commanding lead - regulatory capture with a halo. OpenAI withheld GPT-2 in 2019 as too dangerous. It was fully out months later. No measurable harm.

Every AI doomsday call since the 1950s has missed. Europe sold GDPR as privacy and now hosts none of the world's dominant labs, because the rules decide who gets to build.

Computer science professor Pedro Domingos noted, "Europe actually passed this AI Act some years ago that puts draconian restrictions on AI," he said. "Europe is now out of the AI race. I hope we're not gonna let the same thing happen in America."

On the labs driving the panic: "I am much more worried about Anthropic than I am worried about AI." And: "These people think the apocalypse is coming... There's an AI god that's being born and they are the parents of that god."

WATCH: Professor @pmddomingos: "Europe actually passed this AI Act some years ago that puts draconian restrictions on AI.... Europe is now out of the AI race. I hope we're not gonna let the same thing happen in America." https://t.co/xfAkAu7pNN pic.twitter.com/sslfJEkvew

— Innovation Council (@innovationcncl) September 18, 2026

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave the extinction industry a simpler number. There is a "0% chance" the world ends in 2030, however the risks are framed. "2030 is not going to be the end of the world." The man selling the chips that power the boom is not losing sleep over the apocalypse.

Jensen Huang is giving the AI doomsday crowd a reality check.

The Nvidia CEO says there's a "0% chance" the world ends in 2030, regardless of how people frame the risks of artificial intelligence.

"2030 is not going to be the end of the world."

Apparently, the man selling the...

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 19, 2026

Scott Jennings had already mapped the rotation. "It's always the same apocalyptic crowd moving from one issue to the next. Responsible guardrails are one thing, but handicapping American innovation while China speeds ahead with zero regulation isn't sound policy - it's just foolish."

If the U.S. wins the AI race, this will be President Trump's greatest legacy. What I see right now is a lot of people trying to slow him down who don't want him to have that legacy. pic.twitter.com/vP6nhbnLNM

— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) September 16, 2026

Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale told Jesse Watters the scare is not civic caution. It is a coordinated campaign. "These guys don't believe in God. They're atheists, but they've created something they believe is God," Watters said, laying out Lonsdale's point.

"This is their Messiah, and this is their end of the world." Lonsdale urged, adding "There is a coordinated campaign to make the American people afraid."

Lonsdale outlined how an industrial revolution is coming that would be "amazing for America if we get it right." The people trying to stop it, he said, "hate America."

Speaking of which, Bill Gates is also back on the emergency circuit calling AI an "alien intelligence."

"I don't think any government is nearly as deep on this as they have to be," he told Reuters. "Governments are way behind on this one."

Then the Hollywood script: "There's all sorts of movies where some aliens are coming, and magically the US and China and everybody comes together to solve the problem. AI is kind of like this alien intelligence. It's here, and we better do like it shows in those movies."

On a podcast he went further: "It's not the role of the industry to self-regulate or understand the whole-of-society impact that comes out of AI."

He wants a permanent cross-border watchdog stitched from nuclear inspections, aviation rules and ozone treaties - and a meeting with Xi Jinping.

His foundation pledged $1 billion over two years to spread AI through schools, clinics and farms in the same news cycle. Alarm in one hand. Pipeline in the other.

Bernie Sanders appeared at the Future of Life Institute's "Pro-Human Assembly" in Washington. Obama's orbit told Democrats to get "on top of" a technology "moving very fast in private hands." Netflix dropped an AI-doom documentary a producer compared to "An Inconvenient Truth" or "The Social Dilemma." Same template. New monster.

President Trump has already rejected the slowdown. "We're leading China in AI," he said. "Whoever wins AI, wins." A lot of the horror stories being shopped around, he added, "won't happen."

The protest addicts started marching the minute the fear campaign was turned up because they were already waiting for the next wipeout. The malleable mob arriving right on schedule - to demand Washington park a still-American lead under a global committee while Beijing keeps training.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:20

Westinghouse Eyes $50 Billion IPO As America Builds Valuations Faster Than Reactors

Westinghouse, the nuclear business that helped blow a hole in Toshiba’s balance sheet, is preparing for a different headline: a potential valuation above $50 billion.

Bloomberg reports that the American nuclear king could publicly file for an IPO as soon as October. It submitted confidential paperwork in July, and while nothing is set in stone yet, the proposed valuation would crown a wild rehabilitation.

The collapse came in 2017, when Toshiba-owned Westinghouse filed for Chapter 11 under the weight of cost overruns at the miserably managed Vogtle and Summer projects in Georgia and South Carolina. Brookfield Business Partners and institutional investors bought it out of bankruptcy in 2018 in a $4.6 billion deal.

Brookfield spent the next several years rehabilitating the company and bolting on new acquisitions. Westinghouse acquired Rolls-Royce’s systems and services business, Laveer Engineering, BHI Energy and Spain’s Tecnatom. By 2022, Brookfield counted eight completed acquisitions since 2019.

The revamped business emphasized technology and services, instead of emphasizing project management, which came with the construction risks that sank it under Toshiba.

Cameco arrived through a second transaction in 2023. It paid $2.1 billion for 49% while Brookfield and friends took the other 51%. The final enterprise valuation was $8.2 billion, including $3.8 billion of debt retained by Westinghouse.

At $50 billion, the headline valuation would be roughly eleven times the 2018 deal.

Recall the October 2025 agreement between Cameco, Brookfield and the US government that brought up the IPO idea in the first place. The program contemplated up to ten AP1000 reactors and at least $80 billion of investment, supported by federal financing and permitting assistance.

Everything seems to be moving along swimmingly, however, the whole point was to start putting some steel in the ground, which seems to have been forgotten about at this point...

We have just recently exceeded 1,000 days since the US pledged to contribute to the effort of tripling global nuclear capacity

Unfortunately, America is leading in only one category: nuclear-grade talk

The structure of the US arguably makes this one of the most challenging… https://t.co/qXJIyvV6nK pic.twitter.com/oJb7ndG6A2

— Steffan Szumowski (@UnoMasReactor) September 8, 2026

When the deal was originally announced back then, the USG’s participation interest would vest after a final investment decision and binding agreements committing it to at least $80 billion of reactor projects. Once vested, it would receive 20% of cumulative cash distributions above $17.5 billion.

An IPO would convert that interest into a five-year warrant to acquire equity equivalent to 20% of the company’s public value above $17.5 billion, measured at exercise.

With the interest vested, Washington could require an IPO on or before January 2029 if the opening valuation reached at least $30 billion. Nothing's been discussed yet to indicate that specific trigger was pulled to instigate the current IPO.

Questions still remain as to the exact ownership structure of Westinghouse post-IPO, but on their 2026Q2 call, Cameco CEO Tim Getzler indicated ownership will still stay with them and Brookfield: “We and Brookfield control Westinghouse today; we don't expect that to change”

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 07:45

Investor Day Bust: Novo Nordisk Plunges As Wall Street's Turnaround Hopes Fade

Novo Nordisk shares tumbled as much as 7.7% in Copenhagen trading after Wall Street analysts questioned the Danish drugmaker's turnaround efforts amid the loss of its GLP-1 lead to Eli Lilly & Co.

At its capital markets day earlier in London, Novo outlined plans for more than five blockbuster launches and over $23 billion in new sales in the coming years. But that comes as its obesity-market lead has been surrendered to Eli Lilly, and analysts were hoping for more commentary from management about turnaround efforts as the stock is down 18% on the year.

"Investors are selling the shares because they are not seeing concrete news that could drive the stock higher," Nordnet investment economist Per Hansen wrote.

CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts, "We need to work harder, and we will." However, much of the optimism from capital markets a few years ago about Novo leading the GLP-1 race has all but faded.

Much of Novo's medium-term outlook rests on CagriSema, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Michael Shah and Christos Nikoletopoulos. That treatment has already disappointed Wall Street multiple times, including failing to match Lilly's Zepbound in a head-to-head trial. Other potential growth drivers remain earlier in development and carry a higher risk of failure

From the peak of the GLP-1 craze in mid-2024, Novo shares in Copenhagen have plunged a staggering 74%, with shares stabilizing since August 2025.

"The event came amid mounting investor pressure for clarity beyond obesity drugs Wegovy and Ozempic as Novo's semaglutide patent expiries approach in the early 2030s. Investors were increasingly focused on Novo’s next growth drivers following setbacks for obesity candidate CagriSema. Novo said it expects revenue growth between 2026 and 2030 to be in line with industry peers," UBS analyst Nana Antiedu wrote in a note.

Novo has been pursuing a turnaround effort this year, already leading to substantial restructuring. Doustdar has cut as many as 9,000 jobs and removed several management layers, with total cuts reaching about 13,000. Novo is also pursuing new therapeutic areas and using AI to accelerate drug development.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 06:55

VW Supervisory Board Recommends Another 4,100 Job Cuts At Porsche

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The hailstorm of bad news from Germany’s auto industry simply refuses to end. Again and again, heavy hailstones from corporate press offices crash down on anxious workforces at the automakers, ruining politicians’ election campaigns and destroying the last hopes of those still clinging to the promise of an electric car made in Germany.

The latest impact: According to a report by Handelsblatt, citing an internal recommendation by Volkswagen’s Supervisory Board, the personnel scalpel is once again being applied to the “Sport Luxury” division, meaning Porsche. Another 4,100 jobs are to be eliminated at Porsche, after it had already become clear that a total of 9,000 positions would disappear over the coming years. Porsche currently still employs 41,800 people.

According to the Supervisory Board’s proposal, Porsche is supposed to improve its operating profit by €3.8 billion by the end of the decade. In overhead costs alone, the Supervisory Board’s calculation shows a gap of around €700 million. That gap is to be closed through the additional job cuts. Volkswagen’s austerity program now seems to be updated almost weekly.

The notion that Volkswagen’s luxury brand Porsche could shield itself from the group-wide restructuring — or, better put, the clear-cutting — is now finally gone. The crisis runs deep, it is comprehensive, and it has already cost 150,000 jobs across the automotive sector. For consulting firm Roland Berger, there is still no end in sight. Berger expects another 200,000 jobs to disappear from Germany’s automotive sector by 2030. Entire value chains — and with them purchasing power, knowledge and prosperity — are disappearing.

A catastrophe for suppliers, for entire regions and for municipal treasuries that had relied so heavily on revenues from what was once Germany’s flagship industry. But that is what happens when you become ideologically entrenched …

Stuttgart is the blueprint for industrial locations across the republic that until recently threw themselves with fervor into the warm, ecologist current. The home of Porsche and Mercedes-Benz closed the last fiscal year with a deficit of €712 million — and the comfortably wealthy city could become a poorhouse if nobody pulls the emergency brake. Residents of these regions will have to prepare for public services — well-equipped schools, municipal sports facilities, swimming pools and recreational centers — to become luxury goods. The automotive industry is leaving; it is leaving behind empty coffers and high unemployment. A German Rust Belt is emerging before our eyes.

The downward spiral has engulfed every segment of Germany’s automotive industry: intense competitive pressure from China, tariff tensions with the United States, towering energy costs at home and an endless regulatory frenzy are all battering the business. It was therefore only a matter of time before even a luxury brand like Porsche would come under the wheels. And the company’s communications strategy seemed strangely familiar: In a kind of salami tactic, common in politics, the company has been announcing since 2024 that Porsche would initially allow temporary production contracts to expire. Around 1,500 employees were affected that year. In February 2025 came the announcement that around 1,900 jobs in Zuffenhausen and Weissach would be eliminated by 2029. Another 500 temporary contracts were not to be renewed.

In May 2026, it continued: Porsche announced the closure of its subsidiaries Cellforce, eBike Performance and Cetitec. More than 500 jobs were lost. At the end of July this year, the future package was finally presented: Another 5,000 jobs are to be eliminated by 2035, naturally in a socially responsible manner. So much should the future be worth.

Taken together, that amounts to around 9,000 jobs — meaning that more than one in three positions at the home location will disappear. Now another 4,100 new job cuts are being added — the company is being ground down further and further.

Volkswagen’s decline is accelerating. A look at its compressed margins is more than alarming: Originally, management had calculated on an operating margin of between 4 and 5.5 percent this year. It has now shrunk to 1 percent. A €10 billion special effect is weighing on the result. The ailing group is in intensive care.

What is happening at Volkswagen is the great mirror image of German industry: poor domestic conditions and excessively high energy costs following disastrous political decisions are making industrial production at home almost impossible. Since 2018, around 15 percent of German industrial production has disappeared. Around 420,000 jobs in manufacturing have been lost since 2019. With these jobs, engineering expertise is disappearing as well — expertise that is indispensable to a society. Disastrous construction projects such as Berlin Brandenburg Airport, Stuttgart 21 or the Hamburg Opera, where costs and schedules regularly spiral out of control, loudly testify to Germany’s brain drain.

Germany in 2026: Some are no longer capable of organizing infrastructure projects, while others, representatives of business and labor unions, are incapable of anticipating trends in global markets. Together, in their hour of need, they strike up a hymn to moralism, in a green overtone, always self-assured and arrogant toward dissenting criticism. A melody of decline.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for or over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 06:30

Venezuela's Oil Revival Faces "Decade Or Two" Climb Back To Record Output, Piper Sandler Warns

President Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" positions energy security in the West as a key pillar of US national security. 

The removal of socialist Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent massive Venezuelan oil deal represent the opening act in a longer-term effort to rebuild production and secure supplies closer to the Gulf of America. 

Piper Sandler global energy strategist Jan Stuart's view, however, highlights the time required for these new Venezuelan supplies to ramp up: any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan output could take years, with a return to historic production highs potentially requiring a decade or two. That timeline clashes with the view that additional Venezuelan barrels could provide near-term relief to US refiners amid the global diesel crisis.

"We'll stay tuned but suspect that reaching the old record highs will take a decade or 2 and oodles of good fortune," Stuart wrote in a note. 

Trump described the US-Venezuela deal as the "biggest oil deal in history" and said it would amount to control of 65 billion barrels of oil reserves.

North American Blue Energy Partners is set to develop the oil fields, with the Department of War holding a 35% stake in the venture and rights to a portion of its production. Venezuelan royalties and taxes could total roughly $200 billion over 25 years.

A Reuters report last week said ExxonMobil was negotiating a return to Venezuela's Orinoco Belt for the first time in nearly two decades.

Venezuelan bonds have rallied around these developments but the risk to investors is for a prompt revival. 

Beyond energy supplies, Venezuela reportedly prepared its first aluminum shipment to the US in years last week: 15,000 metric tons from state-owned Venalum, facilitated by Mercuria Energy Group and Heeney.

The cloud hanging over Venezuela's resources revival is the outcome of the US midterms. Stuart questioned whether US military backing for the oil deal would survive the next US election. Rebuilding production could take a decade or two. Investors now have to ask whether Trump's commitment can last that long.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 05:45

Meloni: Italy Set To Ban Face Coverings In School, Limit Foreign Students Per Class

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Italy is moving to ban face coverings in schools and limit the number of foreign students per class, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced at a youth event on Sept. 19.

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits to welcome Austria's chancellor at the Palazzo Chigi in Rome on Feb. 10, 2025. Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images

The event was hosted by her political party, Brothers of Italy. It marks a push by her government to respond to the continuing influx of non-European immigrants, especially those from the Islamic world, with the goal of ensuring these children can better assimilate into Italian society.

"For us, anyone who comes to Italy and wants to build their future here must learn our language, understand our culture, and respect our rules," she said to a standing ovation. "It is the only serious way to welcome them."

One major element of this education reform will be making learning Italian mandatory.

"If there is only one child in a class who doesn't understand Italian, that child will likely be able to learn the language and integrate quickly with the help of classmates and teachers," she said. "However, if the number of children who don't understand the language becomes large - or even the majority - that is no longer integration; it is neglect."

Meloni declined to specify what that limit would be. But according to research institute Fondazione ISMU, currently 11.6 percent of students in Italian schools are foreigners, nearly 12 of every 100 students.

The banning of face coverings was included in the push for increased assimilation.

"You must go to school with your face uncovered, and in Italy no one, in the name of a real or supposed tradition, can decide that a young woman must hide herself," Meloni said.

She did not mention hijabs, traditional headscarves that do not cover the wearer's face, in her address.

If approved by the government, this measure will need parliamentary approval within 60 days.

Meloni's government has made an effort over the years to curb illegal immigration, winning legal battles to fast-track deportation and keep out illegal immigrants who may have entered Europe illegally through its territory but were caught outside of it

Italy has also taken measures against Spain, citing a "high risks to internal security" and a possible terrorist-infiltration threat, after tens of thousands of Moroccan nationals overran Spain's North African enclave, Ceuta, between July 30 and July 31.

Meloni recently reached a historic milestone by becoming the longest-serving uninterrupted Italian prime minister since World War II.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 03:30