"New Era" Begins In Venezuela As U.S. Flag Is Raised At Embassy For First Time In Years

The United States Embassy in Caracas announced on X early Saturday morning that the U.S. flag was raised for the first time in seven years, stating that "a new era has begun for relations between the United States and Venezuela."

"On the morning of March 14, 2019, the American flag was lowered for the last time at the United States Embassy in Caracas. This morning, March 14, 2026, at the same hour, my team and I raised the United States flag, exactly seven years after it was removed," the embassy said, adding, "A new era has begun for relations between the United States and Venezuela. We are staying with Venezuela. - LFD."

En la mañana del 14 de marzo de 2019, la bandera estadounidense fue arriada por última vez en la Embajada de los Estados Unidos en Caracas. Esta mañana, 14 de marzo de 2026, a la misma hora, mi equipo y yo izamos la bandera de los Estados Unidos—exactamente siete años después de… pic.twitter.com/kTrwnnECdb

— Embajada de los EE.UU., Venezuela (@usembassyve) March 14, 2026

The reopening of the American embassy in Caracas comes a little more than three months after former left-wing President Nicolás Maduro was forcibly removed from power by U.S. Delta Force operators in a daring midnight raid. Shortly afterward, President Trump backed Maduro’s successor, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez.

That "new era" the U.S. embassy describes is one in which American companies are investing billions of dollars in the South American country across the energy and mining sectors.

Reuters previously reported that Chevron and Shell were close to the first major new oil production deals in Venezuela.

Last week, Reuters reported that the U.S. expanded sanctions waivers to support investment in electricity infrastructure and the energy industry, including fertilizer, and to allow U.S. companies to negotiate contracts for future projects within the country.

Venezuela's economy has been financially crushed by sanctions as well as by profound economic mismanagement under former socialist leader Maduro. Economists estimate that inflation surged by 400% last year.

Across the Caribbean, on Friday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel was forced to admit that his administration is in talks with the Trump administration aimed at "finding solutions through dialogue" to longstanding bilateral differences between the two neighboring countries.

The Trump administration is in the process of ridding the Western Hemisphere of socialists and communists who have caused nothing but trouble and have squandered the inheritances of entire nations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 08:45

Singularity Update: You Have No Idea How Crazy Humanoid Robots Have Gotten

Authored by Peter H. Diamandis via Metatrends,

I just spent the afternoon at Figure headquarters in San Jose with Brett Adcock and David Blundin, and I’m still processing what I saw.

We’re not talking about concept robots. We’re talking about fully autonomous humanoid robots running neural networks end-to-end, doing kitchen work, unloading dishwashers, organizing packages – for hours at a time, with no human intervention.

Today? Figure’s robots are doing 67 consecutive hours of autonomous work. One error in 67 hours. That’s not a demo. That’s a product.

And here’s what most people don’t understand: the gap between “doing one task really well” and “doing every task a human can do” is collapsing at exponential speeds.

Let me explain why…

NOTE: Brett has been a past Faculty Member at my Abundance Summit, where leaders like him share insights years before the mainstream catches on. In-person seats for the 2026 Summit next month are nearly sold out. Learn more and apply.

The Death of C++ and the Rise of the Neural Net

When I first visited Figure, they had several hundred thousand lines of C++ code controlling the robots. Handwritten. Expensive. Brittle.

Every new behavior required engineers to anticipate edge cases, write more code, test it, debug it. It was the software equivalent of teaching a toddler to walk by writing an instruction manual.

In the last year, Figure deleted 109,000 lines of C++ code.

All of it. Gone.

What replaced it? A single neural network that controls the entire robot: hands, arms, torso, legs, feet. Full-body coordination. Real-time planning. Dynamic response to unexpected situations.

This is Helix 2, their latest AI model, and it’s a fundamentally different approach to robotics.

Here’s why this matters: neural nets learn from experience, not instructions.

You don’t code a robot to “grab a cup.” You show it thousands of examples of grasping objects—different shapes, weights, materials—and the neural net extracts the underlying patterns. It learns what “grasping” is at a representational level.

And once it understands grasping? It can generalize to objects it’s never seen before.

Brett put it simply: “If you can teleoperate the robot to do a task, you can train the neural net to learn it.”

That’s the unlock. If the hardware is capable—if the motors, sensors, and joints can physically perform the movement—then the AI can learn it from data.

Compare that to traditional robotics, where you’d need to write thousands of lines of code for every single new task. That approach doesn’t scale. Neural nets do.

The implication: Every robot in the fleet learns from every other robot’s experience. When one Figure robot masters folding laundry, every Figure robot on the planet instantly knows how to fold laundry.

Humans don’t work like this. Robots do.

Hardware Built Around the Brain

Most people think you design the robot first, then figure out the AI.

Figure did the opposite.

Brett’s team looked at the neural network architecture they wanted to run and asked: “What hardware do we need to make this work?”

That’s why Figure 3 exists. It’s not an incremental upgrade. It’s a complete redesign built around Helix.

Here’s what changed from Figure 2 to Figure 3:

• 90% cost reduction in manufacturing

• ~20 pounds lighter (135 lbs total)

• Palm cameras for occluded grasping

• Tactile sensors in every fingertip

• Passive toe joint for better range of motion

• Soft-wrapped body to eliminate pinch points

• Onboard inference compute (no cloud dependency)

And critically: designed for data collection at scale.

Because here’s the thing — if you’re betting on neural nets, you’re betting on data. The more diverse, high-quality data you collect, the better the robot generalizes.

Figure built their robot to be a data-gathering machine. Every sensor, every camera, every interaction feeds back into the training loop.

And they’re not using off-the-shelf parts. They manufacture their own actuators, hands, battery systems, embedded compute—everything.

Why? Because the technology readiness of existing robotics components is too low. If a vendor’s motor fails in the field, you’re stuck waiting for them to fix it. If you built it yourself, you iterate overnight.

This is vertical integration at its finest. And it’s the only way to move fast enough to win.

The Manufacturing Ramp: From Thousands to Millions

Walking through Figure’s Baku (manufacturing facility) was surreal.

Four production lines. Capacity for 50,000 robots per year when fully ramped.

But Brett’s not stopping there. He’s already planning the next facility. Tens of thousands. Then hundreds of thousands. Then millions.

And here’s the kicker: Figure will use its own robots to build more robots.

They’re putting humanoids on the production lines this year. Robots assembling robots. Robots testing robots. Robots packaging robots.

Why? Because if you’re trying to scale to a billion units, you can’t rely on human labor. You need an exponential manufacturing curve, and the only way to get there is recursive self-improvement.

Think about it: every improvement Figure makes to the robot’s dexterity, speed, and reliability makes it better at building the next generation of robots.

It’s a flywheel. And once it starts spinning, it’s nearly impossible to stop.

Brett estimates they could ship a billion robots today if the AI were fully general-purpose. The demand is there. The capital markets (via leasing models) can finance it. The constraint is solving general robotics.

And that’s exactly what they’re working on.

General Robotics: The Only Milestone That Matters

 

Here’s the thing about humanoid robots that most people—and most companies—don’t get:

Teleoperation is not impressive. Open-loop behaviors are not impressive. One-minute demos are not impressive.

What’s impressive is closed-loop, autonomous work in unseen environments over long time horizons.

Let me break that down.

Closed-loop means the robot is continuously sensing its environment and adjusting in real-time. It’s not replaying a pre-programmed sequence. It’s thinking.

Autonomous means no human in the loop. No remote operator in Tennessee. The robot is making decisions on its own.

Unseen environments means you can drop the robot into a random Airbnb or factory floor it’s never visited, and it figures out how to navigate and work there.

Long time horizons means hours, days, weeks of continuous operation. Not 30-second clips stitched together in post-production.

This is what Brett calls “general robotics,” and it’s the only milestone that matters.

If you can’t do this, you don’t have a product. You have a very expensive remote-controlled toy.

Figure’s current benchmark: four to five hours of continuous neural network operation in logistics, kitchen work, and manufacturing tasks.

Their 2026 goal: Drop a robot into an unseen home and have it do useful work for days with minimal human intervention.

Once they hit that, the game is over. Because if the robot can generalize to any home, it can generalize to any environment. Factories. Warehouses. Hospitals. Senior care facilities. Mining operations. Space stations.

The hard part isn’t building a robot that can do one thing well. The hard part is building a robot that can do everything a human can do.

And Figure is closer than anyone else on the planet.

The Timeline: When Will You Have One?

Everyone wants to know: when can I buy a Figure robot for my home?

Brett’s answer: Not yet. And I’m not going to ship slop.

Here’s his roadmap:

2026: Alpha testing in homes. A small number of robots doing long-horizon work (cleaning, organizing, laundry, dishes) in real households. The goal is to measure human interventions – how often does someone need to step in and help?

Right now, industrial deployments see occasional errors. The target for home deployment is orders of magnitude better.

2027-2028: Scaled home pilots. Tens, then hundreds, then thousands of units. Iterative design based on real-world feedback. Safety validation. Privacy validation. Reliability validation.

2028-2029: Mass production and broad availability.

Why so cautious?

Because Brett learned this lesson at Archer (his eVTOL company): you don’t ship safety-critical systems until they’re ready.

A humanoid robot in your home is around your kids, your pets, your elderly parents. If it drops a pot of boiling water, that’s catastrophic. If it steps on your cat, that’s catastrophic. If it gets hacked and streams your private conversations to the internet, that’s catastrophic.

So Figure is taking the time to get it right.

And honestly? I respect the hell out of that.

Because when Figure does ship, they’ll have a decade head start on everyone else in terms of safety track record, reliability data, and customer trust.

That’s a brand moat you can’t buy.

The Business Model: Leasing Humanoids Like Humans

Here’s the beautiful part of Figure’s go-to-market strategy:

They’re leasing robots the same way you lease humans — by the hour.

Think about it. You don’t “buy” an employee. You pay them a salary. You lease their time and capability.

Figure is doing the same thing. You don’t buy a $20,000 robot. You pay ~$300/month to lease one. That’s $10/day. Forty cents an hour.

Compare that to minimum wage ($15-20/hour in most US states). A Figure robot is 50x cheaper and works 24/7 with no breaks, no benefits, no turnover.

And because it’s a lease, Figure retains ownership. They can remotely update the software. They can recall and upgrade units. They can monitor performance and safety in real-time.

It’s the Apple model applied to robotics. And it’s going to print money.

Brett estimates the market for humanoid robots is half of global GDP: roughly $50 trillion annually. Because half of all economic activity is human labor.

And here’s the thing: the demand is already there.

Figure has signed multiple commercial clients. They’re deploying robots into factories, warehouses, and logistics operations this year. These aren’t pilots. These are revenue-generating contracts.

The bottleneck isn’t demand. It’s supply. It’s solving general robotics and scaling manufacturing fast enough to meet the orders.

When that happens? This becomes the largest economy in the world.

What Comes Next: The Age of Abundance

Let me paint the picture of where this is going.

2030: Every household in the developed world has access to a humanoid robot. You lease it for $300/month. It does your laundry, cleans your house, organizes your kitchen, runs errands.

You come home from work and your robot has already meal-prepped dinner based on your biometric data from your wearable. It knows you’re low on magnesium, so it adjusted the recipe.

2035: There are 10 billion humanoid robots on the planet. Five billion in homes. Five billion in commercial and industrial settings.

The cost of goods and services collapses. Why? Because labor is no longer a constraint. Robots mine the materials, manufacture the products, transport them, and deliver them to your door.

You want a custom piece of furniture? A robot designs it, fabricates it, and assembles it in your garage overnight. Cost: materials + energy. Labor: free.

2040: Robots are building robots. Robots are designing robots. Robots are optimizing supply chains, managing logistics, exploring asteroids, constructing orbital habitats.

Humans are freed from drudgery. We do what we’re best at: creating, exploring, connecting, imagining.

This is the age of Abundance.

And it starts in 2026.

Brett Adcock and his team at Figure are building it. Right now. In San Jose.

I’ve seen it. I’ve walked the floors. I’ve watched the robots work.

And I’m telling you: this is real.

The future doesn’t care if you believe in it. It’s coming anyway.

The only question is: are you ready?

To an Abundant future,

Peter

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 08:10

US Navy Surveillance Plane Made Provocative Flight Over Taiwan Strait, Weeks Before Trump-Xi Summit

With the world's attention hyper-focused on fast-paced events in Iran and the effectively shuttered vital oil transit hub, the Hormuz Strait, some significant things were also happening around Taiwan this past week.

The US military confirmed that a P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, a move that predictably drew Beijing's attention.

US Navy

China said it monitored the US Navy aircraft as it passed through the narrow waterway separating Taiwan from mainland China.

"By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations," the US 7th Fleet said in a statement, adding the transit "demonstrates the United States' commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific."

The latest fly-through comes just weeks before President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at hammering out a new trade agreement.

But the diplomatic backdrop is already showing strain, with regional media including The Japan Times saying that Beijing has grown irritated with Washington for failing to engage in serious advance planning ahead of the summit.

China is also without doubt angered as its Iranian oil imports are in extreme jeopardy due to Trump's Iran war, and recent bombing of Kharg Island export depot.

Against that backdrop, the Taiwan Strait patrol looks like a familiar piece of strategic signaling - a reminder to East Asian allies that even as Washington pours military resources into the Middle East, it still intends to project power in the Indo-Pacific.

Iranian oil shipments to China continue for a reason. With a Xi-Trump summit approaching, Washington has incentives to avoid steps that would directly pressure Chinese energy imports. Strategic stability with Beijing is clearly a priority right now. https://t.co/703UEnOmIR

— Craig Singleton (@CraigMSingleton) March 14, 2026

And yet if China were to invade Taiwan tomorrow, there's likely not much Washington could do about it at a moment it is concentrating its firepower and resources on regime change in Iran, alongside its Israeli ally.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 07:35

Unhappy Ending: Chinese National Pleads Guilty To Money Laundering Over Prostitution Scheme

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese national has pleaded guilty to laundering more than $2 million from a prostitution enterprise run through spa businesses in New York’s capital region, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of New York announced on March 11.

The U.S. Department of Justice in Washington on Aug. 7, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Xia Ming, 41, of Flushing, New York, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering on March 3. According to his plea agreement, Xia operated a prostitution enterprise from 2019 to 2025.

The enterprise consisted of “illicit massage businesses” disguised as “legitimate spas,” with employees providing “commercial sex services,” according to the court document. The establishment included Central Spa, Body and Skin Spa, Zen Body Works, Sisters Body Works, Relaxation Spa, and Physical Wellness Spa.

“Mr. Xia did not merely run an illegal business, he built a multimillion-dollar enterprise on the commodification of women, treating them as instruments for financial gain while laundering the proceeds to enrich himself through cash and real estate,” John A. Sarcone III, first assistant U.S. attorney for the Northern District of New York, said in a statement on Wednesday.

“Let this guilty plea serve as a clear warning: those who exploit others for personal profit and attempt to hide their gains will be identified, prosecuted, and stripped of their ill-gotten assets.”

Xia advertised his businesses online, transported his employees between locations, and traveled to each spa to collect money, according to the court document.

The spas brought in more than $2 million in proceeds, prosecutors said, which Xia admitted laundering through third parties before using the money to purchase properties.

The court documents list three properties in Albany, New York, two in Flushing, Queens, and one in Endwell, New York.

As part of his plea, Xi agreed to forfeit $198,000 in cash that was seized by law enforcement, along with the six properties—two commercial properties and four residences.

“By turning neighborhood spas into brothels and washing millions in criminal proceeds through our communities, Ming Xia treated the Capital Region as his personal cash register,” Erin Keegan, special agent in charge of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), said in a statement on Wednesday.

“His scheme exploited vulnerable workers, poisoned legitimate commerce, and robbed residents of the basic expectation that local businesses are safe and lawful.

“This guilty plea sends a clear message: HSI and our invaluable Homeland Security Task Force partners will strip criminals of their profits, seize their assets, and shut down any operation that tries to hide behind a respectable storefront.”

Xia, who was indicted in February 2025, is scheduled to be sentenced on July 1, according to the Attorney’s office. Xia faces up to 20 years in prison, up to three years of supervised release, and a $500,000 maximum fine.

The Epoch Times contacted Xia’s lawyer for comments, but didn’t receive a response by publication time.

In a separate case, four Chinese nationals living in Flushing were indicted in late January for allegedly running brothels disguised as massage spas located in Erie, Pennsylvania. The defendants were indicted on charges of conspiracy, human trafficking, immigration violations, and money laundering.

*  *  * TAKE MATTERS INTO YOUR OWN HANDS

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 07:00

War, Oil And Debt: Which Threats To The US Economy Are Legit?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

It’s the magic number, the line that’s not supposed to be crossed; when a nation’s public debt finally exceeds its GDP. Historically speaking, it’s not a sign of doom like many economists suggest. Numerous countries have sustained for decades with a ratio of well over 100% and many other factors have to be considered before it’s officially time to panic. Of course, there are some cautionary tales.

Greece and Argentina are two examples. A number of developing countries shave been hit with precipitous decline after they hit the 100% mark. In the case of the US, having access to the world reserve currency changes the dynamic dramatically. Debt does not act like debt in an environment where global trade and investment is mostly is priced in dollars and you control the ability to print those dollars at will.

That said, the recent historic milestone has many people suddenly worried about the state of the US system and the precarious nature of the geopolitical landscape going into the future.

Gross national debt for the US crossed the 100% mark back in 2012. The official public debt touched 101% last month. This factor combined with the inflation of the Biden era and the geopolitical uncertainty of the Trump era has the media talking out loud about the kind of crisis we alternative economists have been warning about for quite some time.

It’s certainly an startling change; alternative economists are no longer the voice in the wilderness. But let’s consider for a moment WHY the mainstream has decided to adopt a crisis posture after so many years of ignoring the obvious.

It’s Okay To Talk About A Crash If It Can Be Blamed On Trump

The corporate media has a clear economic bias; optics must be good for establishment endorsed leaders and optics must remain bad for any political leaders on the naughty list. Regardless of what a person might think of Trump’s presidency so far, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the media spins his every move into a negative, even when he succeeds beyond expectations.

The tariffs are a perfect example – After Trump announced his aggressive strategy to counter outsourcing, the media and Democrats asserted that an unprecedented inflationary disaster was inevitable. This never happened.

They claimed consumers would have to eat the cost of the trade taxes on international corporations. This didn’t happen either. In reality, the CPI barely budged in response to tariffs. Why? Because companies are absorbing the higher costs (as I and some other economists predicted).

The retail markups on goods made overseas are substantial. International conglomerates have plenty of room to take the hit while avoiding raising prices on the shelf. Trump knows this, and anyone who has studied export markets knows this. Yet, the demonization campaign against tariffs was absolutely frantic.

This is just one example of a false threat; an imagined crisis fabricated for the sake of political interests rather than the for sake of protecting the American people. It’s important to be able to discern between very real economic dangers and false narratives designed to target and scapegoat.

Suddenly The Mainstream Is Noticing US Debt

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a Washington-based fiscal watchdog, released a sweeping new report this week warning that policymakers are “woefully underprepared” to handle the next recession or financial shock.

They assert that the national debt crossing the 100% benchmark is one signal among many that the US cannot handle a surprise destabilization event, though they note that interest payments on that debt are the greater concern. By 2036, according to Congressional Budget Office projections, debt is on track to reach 120% of GDP with interest swallowing $0.26 of every dollar the government takes in.

The report also warned about rising inflation dangers associated with monetary policy. This falls in line with reports of tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve, but corporate news sources are painting the Fed as a kind of “wayward institution” stuck in the middle of a bad situation they have nothing to do with. In reality, the Fed is the cause of most of our nation’s debt and inflation problems; they enable the money printing bonanza and they are unaccountable to the American public.

Fortune Magazine has tied threats of inflation and debt accumulation to the Iran war, and Bloomberg has published articles lamenting an inevitable “wave of global inflation” due to the conflict. I find this fascinating given the media’s refusal to accept that inflation existed after the 2020 election. Bloomberg even asserted that rising inflation was a “mirage” and Fortune reprinted those claims.

The question is not what Trump will do in the face of a crisis event; rather, we must ask what the Fed will do? Will they raise rates again to mitigate inflationary pressure, or will they turn the money printers back on to stave off any potential deflationary consequences. Given their track record, it is likely the Fed will inflate, but high interest rates at this time could also be devastating.

With the GOP ostensibly in control of the government the bankers might be able to divert all blame onto conservatives policies, and to me this is the real concern. Will the Fed pull the plug on the economy simply because they have a convenient scapegoat?

Geopolitical Black Swan Or Minor Blip On The Radar?

Over the past couple years I have warned extensively about war with Iran, specifically in relation to the Strait of Hormuz and the 20% of global oil shipments that travel through it every year. The war itself is superfluous; I have little doubt that the US can and will destroy the majority of Iranian military infrastructure within a couple months. The greater danger is how easy it will be for insurgent elements to keep the strait closed using simple guerrilla tactics.

It doesn’t take much to block up the narrow strait and threaten global oil prices. Securing it would have to be a top priority of the Trump Administration, which seems to be the case given Trump’s latest statements. Troops on the ground are unavoidable to ensure the Hormuz remains clear, and this is going to ruffle a lot of feathers.

The strait is the only legitimate geopolitical leverage Iran has against the US, but not in the way many people assume. It is true that IF the Hormuz remains contested for more than a couple months, the economic effects could cascade into the markets and cause serious instability. However, this instability will initially affect the East, not the West.

Only 7% of US oil imports and 6% of European oil imports pass through the Hormuz. In comparison around 50% of China’s oil imports and 40% of India’s imports rely on the strait. The hardest hit, however, will be Japan, with over 70% of their oil imports relying on ships passing through the Hormuz. And, as most economists know, Japan’s markets are deeply intertwined with US markets through the Yen carry trade.

In Japan, ongoing oil-driven inflation could pressure the Bank of Japan to tighten policy through rate hikes or reduced bond buying. This narrows the carry trade differential, eroding carry profits and potentially triggering an unwind. In other words, it will no longer be cheap for investors to borrow Yen at near zero rates and then buy assets in the US.

Prices would have to rise considerably in order to trigger such a cascade, though. It’s important to note that the panic over an impending energy crisis is currently based on speculation and not legitimate shortages.

When an actual crisis occurs, we’ll know it. When shale oil drillers in the US ramp up production because they KNOW the high prices can sustain them, then it’s time to worry. When we see sustained weekly gas price spikes of 10%-20%, then it’s time to worry. If foreign countries initiate a large scale dump of the dollar as the petro currency, then it’s time to worry.

The war itself would have to carry on for many months to create these conditions and I’m not convinced yet that this will be the case. The expectation among many on the political left (and among libertarians) is that the war in Iran will carry on for years because that’s what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I have to ask this question, though: Has anyone considered the possibility that those wars lasted for decades because they were DESIGNED to go on for decades? Who decided the objectives? Who decided the parameters for success? Who decided that occupation was necessary? It was establishment Neo-cons and Democrats that created the necessity of occupation out of thin air. “Defeating the enemy” became a secondary concern.

The length of the Iran war will not be decided by the current Iranian regime, it will be decided by Trump. If the only objective is to destroy Iran’s ability to project military power and to secure the Hormuz (and avoid occupation of the greater territory), then the war will be short and there will be no energy crisis.

This is not my endorsement of the war in general, just the facts. There are much bigger threats to the US economy and the global economy than Iran right now.

The Real Danger

Iran has the potential to become a “linchpin” disaster, but the conditions are not right for one yet.  For now, I continue to believe that the most significant danger to the global economy and the US economy is still the European oligarchy and their push for war with Russia over Ukraine. Any move by the Europeans to deploy troops to the region could result in a large scale war that would dwarf the events in Iran and completely derail already fragile economic structures.

If you’re worried about global Armageddon, look to Ukraine, not Iran.

The largest secondary hazard is domestic. NGO funded leftist riots, terror attacks and movements to burn the country to the ground in the name of Marxist “deconstruction” are more perilous to the US than most of the populace understands. Add to this the increasing number of Islamic terror attacks and we’ve got a recipe for civil breakdown. Internal insurgencies would have to be handled by the armed citizenry rather than sitting around and relying on the government to do everything.

Then you have the Federal Reserve and the Catch-22 policy conundrum. The central bankers could, theoretically, collapse the US economy at any given moment using the sudden whiplash of a large rate hike or a large stimulus program. The financial system would not be able to adapt this time. With Trump in office I would argue that the bank is MORE likely to do this.

There is a fine line between vigilance and hysteria. We have to be careful not to blackpill ourselves into oblivion over events like tariffs or the war in Iran. That said, there are indeed very real catalysts brewing within geopolitics and on the home front. At bottom, there are people out there that desperately WANT the US to collapse.

For them, every crisis is an opportunity to push their agenda forward whether those crises are engineered or not. By extension, some threats are fabricated and exaggerated to conjure up a public frenzy, manipulate popular opinion and destroy the US from within. Knowing what is real and what is illusion is essential to our nation’s survival.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 23:10

Over 3 Million Iranians Forcibly Displaced Under US-Israeli Bombardment

More than 3 million Iranians have been displaced by the ongoing US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic, according to the main UN refugee agency. Ayaki Ito, director of the Division of Emergency and Program Support at the UN refugee agency, has described that the US-Israeli attack has already triggered mass internal displacement across Iran.

"Between 600,000 and 1 million Iranian households are now temporarily displaced inside Iran as a result of the ongoing conflict, according to preliminary assessments, representing up to 3.2 million people," Ito said.

Afghan refugees inside Iran, via AFP. Supposedly America wants to 'liberate' people through bombing them.

The dark and twisted irony in all of this is that Washington and Tel Aviv have claimed they want to "help" the Iranian people go "free"... by bombing them and destroying their civic infrastructure, apparently.

Most of those fleeing are leaving Tehran and other major cities as the air war intensifies and the crisis accelerates.

Though there were Friday scenes of large crowds of Iranian in Tehran streets and city squares defiantly protesting the US attacks - even as bombs fell around them - most Iranians are likely trying a way to flee to the countryside, or stay away from big cities in the homes of relatives.

The number of forcibly displaced people "is likely to continue rising as hostilities persist, marking a worrying escalation in humanitarian needs," the UN official added.

Iran also currently plays host to the largest population of refugees from Afghanistan (with Pakistan also hosting a huge number), in the millions of people. The war in Iran is said to be hitting Afghans hard, as resources must be rushed elsewhere as the bombs fall.

Meanwhile, the death toll from the US-Israeli bombing campaign continues to climb. The official death count is approaching 1500 people, including 165 children killed in a reportedly US double-tap strike on a girls' school.

The conflict is also fueling a parallel refugee crisis across the region, which could also potentially impact some Gulf regions. For example, Bahrain is experiencing some degree of destabilization as its huge Shia population rises up against the Sunni monarchy, and clashes with police have ensued.

In Lebanon, relentless Israeli strikes have displaced almost 15% of the country’s population, more than 800,000 people, monitors have said.

Mass evacuation orders issued by Israel now cover all of southern Lebanon and large sections of the capital, Beirut, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee as the war spreads across the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 22:25

Jet Fuel Prices Soar As War In Iran Ripples Through Global Aviation

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Airlines, including Qantas, SAS, and Air New Zealand, have already announced airfare increases.
• Surging jet fuel prices and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are squeezing airline operations.
• Prolonged conflict could weaken travel demand and deepen pressure on global airline stocks.

As the war in Iran spills over into other parts of the Middle East, energy experts expect the price of several oil and gas products to soar over the coming months, driven by shortages. This will likely affect flight prices, with several airlines warning of anticipated price hikes. It could lead to a travel slump, as consumers wait for prices to fall again.

Australia’s Qantas Airways, Scandinavia’s SAS, and Air New Zealand are three of the airlines to have already announced airfare hikes in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The airlines cited the abrupt spike in the cost of fuel driven by the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran as the reason for the move.

Jet fuel prices rose from between $85 to $90 a barrel before the attack on Iran to as much as $150 to $200 a barrel this week. This has led several airlines to reconsider their financial outlooks for 2026, as the uncertainty makes it impossible to predict where the price of fossil fuels will go in the coming months.

The war in Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The strait is considered a chokepoint, as there are few alternative options for energy transportation, beyond some limited pipeline networks in the region. The dramatic reduction in the transport of fossil fuels through the strait, which is said to have created the biggest oil supply disruption in history, has driven oil and gas prices up sharply in recent weeks.

An SAS spokesperson told Reuters, “Increases of this magnitude make it necessary to react in order to maintain stable and reliable operations,” adding that the airline has implemented a “temporary price adjustment.”

Some airlines will be more affected than others by the increase in jet fuel prices. For example, several Asian and European airlines, such as Lufthansa and Ryanair, have oil hedging in place, meaning that a part of their fuel supplies is maintained at a fixed rate. However, some companies are concerned that even the hedged fuel reserves may be at risk.

Finnair hedged more than 80 percent of its first-quarter fuel purchases and now worries that the fuel may no longer be available if the conflict continues. Some major jet fuel producers, such as Kuwait, have already been forced to reduce production and export quantities in recent weeks.

Another challenge that is driving airfares up is the closure of several airspaces because of the ongoing conflict, which has affected several Asia-Europe routes. Some airlines have been forced to open alternative flight routes for passengers to reach their destinations. Pilots have also been forced to reroute to avoid the Middle East conflict, while capacity on popular routes has rapidly increased.

“Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” Deutsche analysts were reported to have said in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, some companies, such as British Airways, are confident that they can maintain their current ticket prices in the near-term until more is known about the mid- to long-term impact of the conflict.  However, British Airways has cut certain routes due to continuing uncertainty, such as its seasonal flights to Abu Dhabi.

The uncertainty means that several airlines, across Asia, Europe, and North America, are seeing their shares plummet. Lorraine Tan, the director of equity research, Asia at Morningstar, stated, “The issue for the airlines now is that travel demand may be curtailed as costs become prohibitive for leisure travellers and as some companies start to limit business travel due to the uncertain outlook."

On Monday, during a party conference in Florida, U.S. President Trump announced, “We have already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” in reference to the war in Iran.  Trump says. The president added, “We go forward more determined to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.” Trump’s speech, as well as mixed messages from the president to several media outlets, have caused greater uncertainty, as there is no clear timeline for the conflict or an idea about when it might end.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already caused significant energy supply chain disruptions, which have driven oil and gas prices up. Meanwhile, uncertainties about when the U.S.-Israeli intervention in Iran will come to an end have led stocks across a range of industries to fall sharply. While many airlines attempt to weather the storm, it is likely that we will see significant price increases in airfares in the coming months.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 21:40

North Korea Fires 10 Ballistic Missiles, Flexing During US Regional Drills

It's obvious that 'wars of choice' never get launched against nuclear-armed powers, and countries like North Korea want to keep it that way, given it is already treated like a 'rogue' state by the West.

Saturday saw Pyongyang engage in more muscle-flexing, as its military fired about 10 ballistic missiles toward the eastern sea, according to South Korea's military said, staging its own show of force as the rival South conducts a joint military exercise with the United States.

Japan's Defense Ministry indicated the warheads landed in waters outside the country's exclusive economic zone, which is somewhat typical anytime the north conducts missile tests.

Regional media further says "The Japanese government has convened an emergency response team consisting of officials from relevant ministries and agencies at the crisis management center in the prime minister's office. The team is collecting information and confirming if there is any damage."

South Korea is meanwhile on high alert and says it has stepped up surveillance and military readiness in light of the new drills.

Pyongyang's actions aren't completely unprovoked, as the muscle-flexing comes as there's the same south of the border, per NBC:

The launches came as the U.S. and South Korean militaries conduct their annual springtime exercises involving thousands of troops while the Trump administration also wages an escalating war in the Middle East.

The war has raised concerns about potential security lapses in South Korea, as local media — citing security camera footage and other images — have speculated that the U.S. is relocating some missile defense assets stationed in the country to support operations against Iran.

To be sure, while the Kim regime traditionally rages over the drills on its border, claiming they are rehearsals for invasion, although it may well be right: US forces have been flooding into the Pacific over recent years with warships, warplanes, missiles and the army all on standby.

However, some of these regional assets - especially anti-air defense systems - are now being transferred over to the Middle East region amid the now over two-week-long Iran war.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 20:55

Iran War Exposes America's Unfixed Supply Chains

Authored by David Dayen via The American Prospect,

One of the more fascinating sidelights of our war of choice in Iran is how it has reinforced the devastating consequences of our hollowed-out industrial base, consolidated commercial sector, and overreliance on long intermediated supply chains.

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG 121) fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile during operations in support of Operation Epic Fury, February 28, 2026. Credit: U.S. Central Command Public Affairs/Cover Images via AP Images

For example, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz carries implications for not only oil but also fertilizer, right at the height of the spring planting season. About one-third of the world’s fertilizer ships through the strait, and without access, prices have jumped and farmers are anxious. Yet there are enough natural resources in the United States—nitrogen, phosphate, potash—to serve all our fertilizer needs; in fact, in the 1930s and ’40s one of the largest fertilizer producers in the world was the Tennessee Valley Authority. This production was wound down in the 1970s; today the industry is dominated by two to four firms, and that may end up having existential implications for hungry people the world over.

A more comically shortsighted example concerns our depleted stock of munitions, one of the few industrial capacities America has retained but which still is imperiled by concentration and outsourcing. These are of course the basic materials necessary to prosecute a war, and you’d think it would be the one item countries would retain the ability to produce themselves. But our trillion-dollar military operates more like a welfare program to help underprivileged Northern Virginia contractors buy second homes and luxury yachts, not as a force that has what it needs when it needs it. Pacifists should rejoice; stupidity in military supply chains puts a binding limit on how many brown-skinned people we can kill.

In the 1990s, dozens of military contractors were reduced to five prime integrators, something demanded by Clinton Defense Secretary Les Aspin and his deputy (and future defense secretary) William Perry at a meeting known as the “Last Supper.” Nearly all weapons and delivery systems now flow through Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics. Executives at these companies were called into the White House last Friday—less than a week after the war began—to discuss how to accelerate offensive and especially defensive weapons production amid a shortage that already was weighing on the military. This was after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the war was saved by shifting to smaller bombs rather than “exquisite” munitions for the campaign. If that was the case, why have the meeting?

Specifically, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile systems are so complex that only 96 get built per year; about one-quarter of the U.S. stockpile was used last year in Israel’s brief war with Iran, with many more flying every day as this war continues. Patriot interceptor systems are cheaper and easier to build, but inventories were a quarter full before the war started. Offensive Tomahawk missiles can be produced with greater frequency as well, but as of October last year the stockpile of that weapon was far short of its target. Something like $5.6 billion in weaponry was burned off in just the first two days of the Iran campaign. Trump’s lying aside, analysts who know something are clear on this point: The nation has a few weeks of bombing left before running out of the precision munitions typically used in modern warfare.

To be sure, the shortage has much to do with the U.S. selling off weapons to Ukraine and Israel to prosecute their wars. (Ukraine is trying to pull off a trade of Patriot missiles for instruction in intercepting drones.) But it seems impossible that a military that spends more than the next nine militaries combined would reach a point of shortage so rapidly. But that’s what happens when military contractors are really financial market optimization machines.

As The Lever has reported, leading military contractors have spent $110 billion on stock buybacks over the last five years, something so repugnant that even Trump has issued an executive order trying to ban it. Meanwhile, contractual overrun-by-design has become the industry standard. As I wrote last year, Lockheed has an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter that has cost $2 trillion over its lifespan and can’t travel long distances or be used in close-range combat, with hundreds of continuing defects that have not derailed its production. All this cash eventually ends up in the pockets of executives and shareholders.

This is why we have to race to take out opposing defenses quickly before we run out of the products that can do that. If we have a trillion-dollar military, but a week after you start to use it everyone screams that they’ve run out of everything and that more money is needed, then you don’t have a trillion-dollar military; you just have a contractor enrichment factory.

The White House has been rumbling about a $50 billion supplemental funding request, something they obviously find so critical that Republicans might burn up their last reconciliation bill of the year on approving it. Lockheed came out of the White House meeting saying they would “quadruple” Tomahawk production, though they didn’t give a timeline. It’s important to note that current production lines are generally too small for an extreme ramp-up, a fact magnified by the lack of competition. This isn’t about “underperforming” contractors, it’s simply about too few of them.

But there’s a far bigger problem here, as Mark Bowden has written about: America lacks the components for these weapons as much as it lacks the capacity to build them. And the biggest missing components are the rare earth minerals used in missile guidance and other essential systems.

According to the South China Morning Post, the U.S. has just two months of rare earth supply left for its military needs. Now, a Chinese-owned paper may be intentionally saying that, because China has a near-monopoly on the processing of rare earths, the raw materials of which are not that rare. But it certainly wouldn’t be surprising, since rare earths have been used as a tool for leverage in the endless U.S.-China trade wars. China has been turning export controls off and on over the past year, though they were up in January and February by about 20 percent relative to 2025. A high-level meeting will be held on rare earth exports next month.

The Trump administration has been buying stakes in domestic rare earth companies and mining operations, and they are generally aware of the need for resiliency and self-reliance, as the Biden administration was. But destroying the electric-vehicle sector in America, as the Trump administration did, eliminated an additional market for rare earths that might have sustained domestic producers. And the cronyism at work in these financing deals—the recent stake in USA Rare Earth is marred by the fact that Howard Lutnick’s former bank Cantor Fitzgerald is the company’s chief placement agent—suggests that the main goal is less restoring domestic supply chains and more nest-feathering.

Even if they were legitimate deals, rare earth mining and processing can take years to set up, with bombs dropping every day. This means the duration and intensity of our war effort is in some very real way at the discretion of China. That will almost certainly become a subject in upcoming trade negotiations, as the SCMP report indicates.

The U.S. invented rare earth magnets used in all these technologies. We gave away the industry and closed the last processing plant over 20 years ago. The business mantra of moving production to where it is cheapest has bitten us in the ass in countless industries over the years. Bombs are probably the least sympathetic one, but since they’ve become Trump’s go-to means of geopolitics—he’s bombed enough countries in his second term to fill more than two World Cup brackets—it’s worth noting how monopolization, financialization, globalization, and weakened industrial capacity are ruining that imperative, just as they have destroyed our self-sufficiency and pillars of our economy. And if we ever have a national-security threat to the country, it’s been made far more perilous by these forces, which have created unacceptable dependencies on foreign nations.

This was a choice, and like any other choice it can be reversed. But that would require dislodging our lords of capital.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 20:10

Meta Plans 20% Layoffs To Divert Capital To Data Centers

On Friday we noted that Meta has delayed the rollout of its latest AI model because it sucks - and may temporarily license superior models like Gemini to power the company's AI products. 

Now, Meta is reportedly mulling a massive new round of layoffs that could affect more than 20% of its workforce as it accelerates spending on AI data center buildouts. The move comes as other hyperscalers consider similar workforce restructurings to redirect capital flows toward AI infrastructure.

Reuters cited people familiar with the plans and said no final decision or timeline has been set for the restructuring. The report added that senior leaders have already been told to begin planning cuts.

Top executives have recently signaled the plans to other senior leaders at Meta and told them to begin planning how to pare back, two of the people said. The sources spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to disclose the cuts. -RTRS

The latest Bloomberg data show Meta's total workforce at the end of 2025 was about 79,000, meaning a 20% reduction would amount to nearly 16,000 workers. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has already been downsizing the workforce since the 2022-23 "year of efficiency" layoffs.

"This is speculative reporting about theoretical approaches," Meta spokesperson Andy Stone told the outlet.

Meta's labor restructuring suggests the insane Covid-era hiring binge is being aggressively unwound. The company cut 11,000 workers in November 2022, or about 13% of its workforce, and it would not be surprising if more cuts are still to come.

Meta plans to spend $600 billion on data centers by 2028 and recently announced it had acquired Moltbook, a social networking platform built for AI agents. Meta is also acquiring Chinese AI startup Manus for $2 billion.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that Oracle was planning to lay off thousands of workers as it spends aggressively on AI data center buildouts. Amazon confirmed in January that it would cut 16,000 jobs, while Block slashed its workforce by half last month.

Let's not forget this 2023 Goldman note...

so yeah, time to reread this from March 2023:
AI Will Lead To 300 Million Layoffs In The US And Europe https://t.co/iav1uCy07u pic.twitter.com/y5WjW2sPao

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 23, 2026

Last week, Palantir CEO Alex Karp delivered an apocalyptic warning to progressives, particularly "highly educated, often female voters, who vote mostly Democrat," stating that their influence over the economy and broader society will erode as technologies such as AI transfer power to working-class, right-leaning men.

We expect that, in the era of AI, much of the Covid hiring across big tech will be unwound. Those coders will be back to bartending.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 19:25

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Lower In Recent Months, Preliminary Data Show

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The effectiveness of vaccines against influenza dropped during the 2025–2026 virus season, officials said on March 12, about two months after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stopped recommending flu vaccination for all children.

An influenza vaccine in a doctor's office in Coral Gables, Fla., on Sept. 15, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Vaccine effectiveness for late 2025 and early 2026 against outpatient visits and hospitalization was pegged at 14 percent to 48 percent among children, Dr. Lisa Grohskopf, with the CDC’s Influenza Division, said at a meeting hosted by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

The shielding among adults was just 22 percent to 34 percent, she said, based on data from CDC networks in 16 states.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness since 2009 has dropped as low as 19 percent and risen as high as 60 percent. It was 56 percent in late 2024 and early 2025, according to the CDC.

Grohskopf said the reasons for the decline from the prior season are not yet clear. Factors could include that fewer people received vaccines and a mismatch between strains in the vaccines and the strains that ended up circulating.

Most influenza cases in recent months have been caused by influenza A viruses, particularly an H3N2 subvariant called subclade K.

Grohskopf said the data are preliminary and could end up changing.

William Gruner, representing Department of War scientists, said at the same meeting that vaccine effectiveness among department networks against influenza-like illness from Nov. 9, 2025, through Feb. 21, 2026, was 32 percent among children and 46 percent among adults.

“Still a lot more data to be collected this season, so things can certainly change,” Gruner said.

They presented to the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee during the largely virtual meeting.

Dr. Hayley Gans, a committee member, said she was concerned that the estimates were inaccurate.

“I think this data doesn’t support at least for what we see in pediatrics,” she told Grohskopf.

She also expressed a desire to see a wider population included in the CDC networks.

Gans later said to Gruner: “I just think that when people hear these rates of vaccine efficacy ... we just have to be careful how that is sort of interpreted. These are largely efficacious to at least severe disease, at least in pediatrics, the ones that we see that are hospitalized largely fall in the undervaccinated group.

“There is some efficacy that we’re not capturing in all this data that we’re presenting.”

The committee later unanimously voted to advise the FDA to have vaccine manufacturers move forward with updated influenza shots that target two influenza A viruses, including a component targeting H3N2. The composition they recommended is the same that the World Health Organization recommended in February.

Global authorities typically release updated strain recommendations once or twice a year in a bid to improve the effectiveness of flu vaccines by trying to predict which strains will be circulating in the future.

Dr. David Kaslow, director of the FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review, told committee members that the FDA appreciated their recommendation and discussion as officials try to figure out how to develop more effective seasonal influenza vaccines.

The CDC had for years advised virtually all Americans to receive an annual flu vaccination, but in January, with backing from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., it stated that children should receive a flu shot only after they and their parents consult with doctors and take into account the risks and benefits of the vaccines.

“The primary purpose of the childhood influenza vaccine in children is to reduce hospitalizations and mortality in children, as well as transmission to the elderly, who are of higher risk for death, but there are no randomized controlled trials demonstrating these benefits,” the CDC’s acting director at the time, Jim O'Neill, said in a memorandum explaining the decision.

Authors of a 2018 Cochrane Collaboration review said data showed that there was moderate certainty that influenza vaccines reduce flu infections among children. They also reported an inability to assess effectiveness against hospitalization due to a lack of data.

A different review published in 2025 said that influenza vaccines shield children against hospitalization.

The CDC said on its website in early March that seasonal flu activity remains elevated nationally, causing an estimated 26 million illnesses, 340,000 hospitalizations, and 21,000 deaths. It said that vaccination “has been shown to reduce the risk of flu and its potentially serious complications,” and it noted that several antiviral drugs are available for those who do contract the flu.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 18:40

Honda Projects First Loss Since 1957 - $15.7 Billion - Thanks To EV Strategy Fail

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A reassessment of Honda Motor Co., Ltd., corporate electric vehicle (EV) strategy and planned cancellation of three EV models for the North American market could lead to losses totaling approximately $15.7 billion for its fiscal year ending March 31, the company said in a news release on March 12.

A Honda SUV e: Prototype electric vehicle is displayed during a media day for the Auto Shanghai show in Shanghai, China, on April 20, 2021. Aly Song/Reuters

It would be the first time Honda has posted an annual loss since its shares were first listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 1957.

Honda said it initiated a strategic shift in its manufacturing plans towards electrification due to major policy changes in the United States that pushed for widespread adoption of EVs—especially in smaller passenger vehicles—as a long-term solution for reaching carbon neutrality.

“Honda had been making steady progress in pursuit of EV adoption by leveraging its stable earnings base provided by existing gasoline and hybrid vehicle business based on technologies and know-how amassed through the development of hybrid models over many years,” the Tokyo-based automobile manufacturer said.

However, Honda said it was forced to reexamine its automobile electrification strategy due to recent changes in the EV business environment that led to declining profitability. Honda reported a near 50-percent year-over-year decline in operating profit for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025, due to heavy losses in its EV business segment and the impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Honda also cited economic pressure in Chinese and other Asian markets from new EV manufacturers making software-laden vehicles that are more in line with shifting consumer demand. The expiration of a $7,500 federal tax credit on the purchase of new electric vehicles on Sept. 30, 2025, also led to a significant reduction in consumer demand for EVs in the United States, Honda noted.

“Honda pursued EV adoption with strong determination that striving for carbon neutrality is a responsibility Honda, as a [manufacturer] of mobility products, must fulfill for the future. However, in the U.S., the expansion of the EV market has slowed down due to several factors including the easing of fossil fuel regulations and revisions to EV incentives,” the Japanese automaker said.

Honda said it now will cancel the planned development and market launch of the Honda 0 sport utility vehicle and 0 Saloon, as well as the Acura RSX. Honda unveiled two prototype models of its 0 series lineup at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January 2025.

“Honda automobile business has fallen into an extremely challenging earnings situation due to various factors, including its inability to respond flexibly to these changes in the business environment, compounded by a decline in the profitability of gasoline and hybrid models due to the impact of newly imposed tariffs,” Honda said.

Shares of Honda Motor Co., Ltd. were down nearly 6 percent in intraday trading. Honda’s stock has fallen more than 22 percent over the past six months.

Honda’s EV woes are shared by other automobile manufacturers. In December, Ford Motor Company said it would take a $19.5 billion writedown after discontinuing several EV models due to waning demand.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 17:30

Texas Antifa Cell Convicted On Terror Charges As Trump Targets Far-Left

For years Democrats argued that "Antifa" is not a real organization; rather, they claim it is a set of ideals with no concrete membership.  This illusory definition of the movement is quite deliberate in that it is designed to protect Antifa members from being defined as terrorists or facing direct consequences for their actions.  

Legal questions have been growing over the use of federal terrorism laws against leftist activists.  Democrats claim they're engaging in constitutionally protected civil protest - rationale used justify attacks on ICE agents during the execution of deportations.  It was also used extensively as legal grounds for violence and property destruction during the BLM riots.

Now, there's been a conviction.

On Friday, nine defendants accused of being part of a North Texas "Antifa Cell" were convicted by a federal jury in Fort Worth. The incident in question took place on July 4th, 2025, at the Prairieland ICE Detention Center in Alvarado, Texas - where anti-ICE protests functioned as cover for the vandalization of government property (vehicles, guard shack, security cameras), the use if exploding fireworks at the facility, and the shooting of a police officer.

The nine defendants faced a total of 65 charges that included attempted murder, aiding terrorists, and weapons charges. Those supporting the defendants have called those charges "outrageous", saying the defendants were there protesting ICE and that the government has gone overboard to send a message.

The most serious charge (attempted murder, on which group member Benjamin Song was convicted) was against an Alvarado police lieutenant (Lt. Thomas Gross), a local law enforcement officer who responded to the scene after a 911 call. He was ambushed and shot in the neck by gunfire from a wooded area as he exited his vehicle (he survived). 

Shots were fired toward responding officers and possibly toward the facility/guards, but no reports confirm any ICE agents (as in deportation/enforcement officers) were directly shot or injured.  Leftists on social media are already calling for violence against the jury who convicted their "comrades". 

  

The attack is only one among a long list of Anti-ICE operations by activists over the past year, many of them involving efforts to maim or kill ICE agents.    

It should be noted that the establishment media nearly buried this story and it has only gained widespread attention due to the trial.  There has been a concerted effort by progressive news outlets to run cover for Antifa and Anti-ICE protest groups; often deliberately minimizing violence and blaming agents when they use force to respond. 

NGO funded protesters often rely on agitation tactics, provocation and sabotage to trigger police and political opponents into using physical force.  They then hold up these incidents as "proof that they are being oppressed and their rights are being violated.  Often referred to as DARVO (Deny, Attack, Reverse Victim & Offender), the political left strategy relies on negative public optics to disrupt otherwise lawful government policies. 

The Texas case goes far beyond DARVO and into the realm of open insurgency.  It is perhaps the first real attempt by the federal government to punish an Antifa group under terrorism laws.  Leftists argue that the convictions will lead to federal violations of free speech rights, but these are the same people that believe violence against anyone they label "fascist" is a form of free speech.              

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 16:55

Iran Mulls Allowing Tankers Through Strait Of Hormuz If Trade Conducted In Yuan

Via The Cradle

Iran is considering allowing a "limited number" of oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that the oil cargo is traded in Chinese yuan, CNN has reported.

A senior Iranian official told the US news outlet that Tehran is working on a new plan to manage tanker traffic through the strategic waterway on Iran’s southern coast.

via Associated Press

Iran has effectively sealed off the strait, allowing only its own and Chinese ships to pass. Before the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, at least 20 percent of the world’s oil flowed through it.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it will attack vessels linked to “aggressor nations,” such as the Gulf states that allow the US and Israel to use their territory for attacks on the Islamic Republic. The IRGC announced that the world should prepare for oil prices "reaching $200."

For decades, most international oil has been traded in US dollars. The earnings from oil sales by Gulf countries, known as "petrodollars," were mostly reinvested into the US economy through the purchase of sovereign bonds issued by the US Treasury.

Since Washington imposed economic sanctions on Moscow in 2022 following the start of the war in Ukraine, sanctioned Russian oil has increasingly been sold in rubles.

For years, China has used a covert, barter-style financial system to help pay Iran for oil, circumventing US sanctions. The system allows Iran to ship crude oil to China, while Chinese state-owned firms carry out infrastructure projects in Iran as payment.

Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz early Saturday morning and are heading towards India, according to an Indian foreign ministry official speaking with CNN.

Iran’s ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, told India Today that Iran allowed Indian vessels to travel through the strait, without providing details of how they obtained permission.

India heavily depends on imported LPG and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia. The South Asian nation has experienced shortages of both fuels since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran started two weeks ago.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday, CNN noted.  During the conversation, Modi reiterated that the “unhindered transit of goods and energy” remained one of India’s top priorities.

The UN has warned that restrictions on shipping through the strait could have dire effects on the world economy, including on food production.

“When ships stop moving ⁠through that Strait, the consequences travel fast,” said Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs.

“Food, medicine, fertilizer, and other supplies become harder ⁠to move ‌and more ⁠expensive to deliver,” he added.

Along with surging oil prices, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused fertilizer costs to rise by up to a third. If the strait remains closed, reduced fertilizer use could lead to lower harvests and potential food shortages worldwide in the coming year.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 16:20

Mamdani Proposes Massive Estate Tax Exemption Cut From $7M To $750K, Among Other Tax Increases

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is urging Albany to consider a sweeping overhaul of New York’s estate tax, proposing to sharply lower the exemption threshold and dramatically increase the top rate on large inheritances. His plan would cut the exemption from more than $7 million to $750,000 while boosting the highest tax rate from 16 percent to 50 percent, Bloomberg reported. 

The idea was included in a policy memo his administration recently shared with state lawmakers as they negotiate the state budget, according to NY Focus.

The estate tax proposal is one of several revenue measures Mamdani’s office has floated as the city prepares for a significant budget gap. New York City is projecting a $5.4 billion deficit for the fiscal year that begins July 1, and the mayor is asking state officials to help identify new sources of funding to help close the shortfall.

Among the other proposals is a narrower package of business tax increases aimed specifically at companies operating in the city. The administration estimates those changes could generate about $1.75 billion annually. Under the plan, the city’s corporate tax rate would rise to 10.8 percent for financial firms and to 10.62 percent for other corporations, while the tax on large unincorporated businesses would increase modestly for firms earning more than $5 million.

Mamdani is also proposing to scale back the Pass-Through Entity Tax credit, which currently allows certain business owners to use company tax payments to fully offset what they owe in personal income taxes. Limiting that credit to 75 percent of its value would produce roughly $700 million a year, according to city estimates. The mayor continues to advocate for raising the local income tax rate on residents earning more than $1 million annually, a measure projected to bring in about $3 billion each year.

The report says that several ideas in the memo target high-end real estate transactions and ownership. They include a one percent surcharge on homes valued above $5 million, a one percent tax on cash-only property purchases exceeding $1 million, and a broader version of the existing mansion tax on luxury home sales. Combined, these changes could generate roughly $1.2 billion in additional annual revenue. Mamdani has also backed eliminating the sales-tax exemption on gold bullion and similar precious metals, which city officials estimate would produce about $300 million for the city each year.

Despite the aggressive estate tax proposal, it appears unlikely to gain traction in the current budget negotiations. Neither chamber of the state legislature has included it in their spending plans, and Governor Kathy Hochul did not incorporate it into her own budget proposal. Lawmakers in both the Senate and Assembly have, however, endorsed separate plans that would increase income and corporate taxes.

Longer-term fiscal pressures are also shaping the debate. Mark Levine has warned that New York City could face cumulative deficits of at least $28 billion over the next four fiscal years, suggesting that state and city officials may continue exploring tax increases and other revenue measures in the years ahead.

As we wrote just hours ago, Moody’s changed its outlook on New York City’s credit rating to negative while keeping its Aa2 rating in place, citing growing concerns about sizable and persistent projected budget deficits that suggest a structural imbalance in the city’s finances and reduced fiscal flexibility.

The shift follows updated spending projections showing larger gaps than previously expected, with the city needing to close at least a $5.4 billion deficit across this year and next as expenses continue to rise faster than revenues. New York’s $127 billion budget also relies on using its rainy-day fund, potentially limiting its ability to manage a future economic downturn.

Moody’s decision signals that a formal downgrade could follow in the coming months if the city fails to address its widening fiscal gaps.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 15:45

Estradiol Hormone Patch Shortage Strains Pharmacies After Warning Lifted

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Some U.S. pharmacies are scrambling to fill estradiol transdermal patch prescriptions as demand for the menopause treatment continues to soar following the Trump administration’s decision to remove what it determined was an outdated cancer warning.

“Manufacturers have been unable to provide sufficient supply of hormone replacement therapies [HRT] over the last several weeks,” CVS pharmacy spokeswoman Roslyn Guarino told The Epoch Times March 9.

In November, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) started the process of removing the so-called “black box warning” from estrogen and estrogen-progesterone replacement therapy added in 2003, ending more than two decades of fear that the treatments increased risk of breast cancer.

As a result, estradiol transdermal patch prescriptions have increased by about 86 percent since 2021, according to the latest study by Epic Research.

CVS pharmacies—the largest U.S. chain—are working with patients to make sure they have access to their medications when the interruptions occur, Guarino said.

Sandoz and Amneal Biosciences, two major producers of estradiol transdermal patches for the U.S. market, listed 10 transdermal patch products currently affected by the shortage. Neither manufacturer gave reasons for the shortages.

Sandoz said the company takes the current supply situation “very seriously” and is making adjustments to meet the demand.

“Recent changes in prescribing behavior due to the FDA’s removal of boxed warnings on HRT patches have created an unprecedented demand that cannot be fully met at present,” Sandoz spokeswoman Jeanne LaCour told The Epoch Times in an email.

“We know this situation is frustrating and inconvenient for the women who rely on these patches. As a global leader in affordable medicines, Sandoz cares deeply about the well-being and health of the women who rely on these treatments. We are working on increasing global capacity to ensure adequate supply of HRT transdermal patches and to support continuity of treatment for patients around the world.

“In the interim, to help women in the U.S. specifically, we have allocated additional quantities to the States to better meet the increase in demand,” LaCour added.

Amneal Biosciences did not immediately return a request for comment.

Viatris, Noven, and Zydus had available product, according to the latest report.

“For more than two decades, bad science and bureaucratic inertia have resulted in women and physicians having an incomplete view of [hormone replacement therapy],” U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy said in a statement about the decision.

“We are returning to evidence-based medicine and giving women control over their health again.”

The warning was preventing millions of women from receiving the life-changing and long-term health benefits of hormone replacement therapy, according to FDA Commissioner Marty Makary.

Studies show that women who start the therapy within 10 years of the onset of menopause, usually before the age of 60, can reduce all-cause mortality and bone fractures. They may also lessen the risk of heart disease by half, and Alzheimer’s disease by a third, the FDA reported.

The president of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), Dr. Steven Fleischman, applauded the decision to remove the black box warning, saying the organization has long advocated for its removal on low-dose vaginal estrogen because of the barrier it posed for people who suffered from menopause symptoms.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.in Washington on Jan. 7, 2026. Alex Wong/Getty Images

“ACOG commends the HHS leadership for improving the lives of perimenopausal women by making the estrogen products they need more accessible to them,” Fleishman said. “The modifications to certain warning labels for estrogen products are years in the making, reflecting the dedicated advocacy of physicians and patients across the country. The updated labels will better allow patients and clinicians to engage in a shared decision-making process without an unnecessary barrier, when it comes to treatment of menopausal symptoms.”

Dr. Sharon Winer, a reproductive endocrinologist at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, said patients should be cautious about the decision.

“The FDA ruling gives clinicians and patients space to individualize care, but it’s not a license to assume [menopause hormone therapy] is universally beneficial,” Winer said. “The FDA’s action is progress, but it doesn’t mean [menopause hormone therapy] will solve every aging-related concern. There’s a lot we still don’t know.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 15:10

"Serve Your Country": Uncle Sam Seeks Investment Bankers For 'Economic Defense Unit'

The Department of War is reportedly building a 30-person investment banking team, called the "Economic Defense Unit," to deploy $200 billion in private equity over three years into defense companies and, more importantly, war unicorns, as the race to secure the Western Hemisphere and counter China, Russia, and Iran intensifies in the Trump era.

Seamfor reviewed a slide deck from the headhunting firm Heidrick & Struggles that says DoW is seeking to stack EDU with bankers from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America.

The presentation pitches bankers a once-in-a-lifetime chance to "serve your country" and deploy "more capital than most investors deploy in their entire careers," as well as an opportunity to sell a large amount of stock tax-deferred.

Seamfor noted that EDU will report to former Cerebrus alums David Lorch and George K. Kollitides II, the former Remington CEO who is now a partner at private equity firm Alvarez & Marsal Capital. 

Heidrick & Struggles' deck also promises bankers "unmatched access to top-level government officials and privileged information flow—whatever you need, you can get."

Finance influencer High Yield Harry published on X what he claims is the deck that headhunters sent to investment bankers.

Intro

Situation Background

Situation Background

The Mission

The Investment Team

Value Proposition

Managing Director Candidates

Vice President Candidates

Associate Candidates

The Trump administration has invested in a handful of companies critical to the survival of the US, from Intel to MP Materials to L3Harris Missile Solutions to USA Rare Earth, Trilogy Metals / Upper Kobuk Minerals Project, and soon a whole bunch of war unicorns (read here).

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 14:35

Palantir CEO Has Grim Prediction For Democrats Over AI

Palantir CEO Alex Karp delivered an apocalyptic warning to progressives, particularly "highly educated, often female voters, who vote mostly Democrat," stating that their influence over the economy and broader society will erode as technologies such as artificial intelligence transfer power to working-class, right-leaning men.

"This technology disrupts humanities-trained, largely Democratic voters, and makes their economic power less. And increases the economic power of vocationally trained, working-class, often male, working-class voters," Karp told CNBC hosts on Thursday.

He continued, "And so these disruptions are gonna disrupt every aspect of our society. And to make this work, we have to come to an agreement of what it is we're going to do with the technology; how are we gonna explain to people who are likely gonna have less good, and less interesting jobs."

Karp, whose software company builds surveillance and defense products for the U.S. government, is essentially saying that AI will shift economic power away from highly educated, so-called "woke Karens" and toward working-class, often right-leaning male voters.

He then shifted the conversation toward military uses of AI, admitting that these technologies are "dangerous" while claiming that Palantir will enable an American future.

"These technologies are dangerous societally," Karp said, adding, "The only justification you could possibly have would be that if we don't do it, our adversaries will do it. And we will be subject to their rule of law.… Why is it that we're absorbing the risk of disrupting the very fabric of our society, including the most powerful parts of our society, if it's not because it's about maintaining our ability to be American in the near term and long term?"

The CEO of Palantir just said the quiet part out loud.
Alex Karp — whose company builds surveillance and defense technology for the U.S. government — just openly stated that AI will deliberately shift economic power away from highly educated, often female, Democratic-leaning… pic.twitter.com/mqznkz4V90

— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) March 12, 2026

Karp's view is that AI will restructure the American class system and shift the balance of economic power. That's one way to present the AI narrative to the everyday person.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 13:25

Oil Could Test $200; Martin Armstrong Warns Attacking Iranian Water Supplies Could Bring Out Nukes

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong warned in February, “This is where the volatility starts kicking in.” 

What do we have?  Oil, gold and silver spiking in price, and violent exchanges between Iran, the United States and many other countries in the Middle East. 

Now, water assets like desalination plants in Bahrain and Iran are being blown up.  Add the worst water shortage in decades in Iran as a backdrop to constant bombing, and you have a situation that could turn very ugly, very fast. 

The water shortage is so bad that there has been water rationing in Tehran for months.  This water rationing was part of the reason there were huge protests in Iran a few months ago.  Armstrong explains:

“Part of the protests (in Iran) were about water rationing.  The Islamic Republic Guard were called the ‘water mafia.’  They control the water. 

It’s kind of like North Korea.  If you want to be fed, you join the army.  All food goes to the army first, and water will also go to the military first.”

Remember, they are water rationing in Iran now, and they don’t have a lot left.  So, what happens if the US, Israel and other Persian Gulf nations knock out what’s left of Iran’s water?  What happens if Iran is completely out of water?  Armstrong says:

“Personally, I would ask Pakistan for a nuke.  Look, you are talking about the death of a country.  When you get to that point, if you’ve got a nuke, you are going to use it.”

So, what happens if the dams and reservoirs are bombed and Iran is completely cut off from water?  Armstrong says:

“If you do that, is that a war crime because you are wiping out the average population and civilians?  Would you do that?  This is a mess.  It’s a complete mess.”

On the other side, what happens if Iran knocks out all the Persian Gulf oil refineries?  Armstrong says:

“If I were Iran, I would attack all the oil refineries of the neighboring states.  You do that, and you will bring the entire West to its knees.  The US only gets about 3% of our oil from the Middle East.  You would wipe out Europe for sure.”

Armstrong sees gold going as high as “$8,800 an ounce . . . and silver $150 per ounce. . .. Oil could test $200 a barrel. . .. It’s going to get worse this summer, and it’s a 250-year drought cycle in Iran.  I wrote about this on my site.”

In closing, Armstrong says, “Winston Churchill said, ‘In time of war, truth is very precious, and it needs a bodyguard of lies to protect it.’”

There is much more in the 54-minute interview.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong to talk about the volatility that got kicked into high gear with the bombing of Iran for 3.10.26.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 12:50

When Do Protest Observers Become Lawbreaking Participants?

Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

When an ICE agent shot and killed Minneapolis resident Renee Good after she allegedly obstructed immigration authorities with her vehicle, disobeyed their commands, and attempted to flee – drawing fatal fire from an officer nearly struck by the vehicle – politicians and pundits decried her death as murder. They called it particularly unjust because she was not acting as a protester but a legal observer.

After federal agents arrested Don Lemon for allegedly disrupting a St. Paul church service in protest of the same Twin Cities immigration enforcement surge Good had opposed. His lawyer defended the former CNN anchor as a journalist, persecuted by the Trump administration for having carried out “constitutionally protected work” in violation of his First Amendment rights.  So too did myriad media organizations ranging from the National Association of Black Journalists to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

While Good’s shooting presents a distinct issue, her case and Lemon’s highlight the complex legal issues surrounding those who claim to be chronicling protests. Legal observers and journalists have long worked on the frontlines of civil unrest, the former documenting instances of alleged police misconduct in violation of constitutional rights to peaceably assemble, and the latter chronicling the assemblies. Their efforts have brought transparency and accountability. But what happens when legal observers and journalists act, or are seen by authorities as unlawful protestors rather than the neutral parties they are supposed to be? To what degree do their titles afford them special protections from prosecution in a court of law?

These questions have been brought into sharp relief as the Trump administration has brought hundreds of cases against people whom it alleges have not merely monitored but participated in illegal actions impacting immigration enforcement operations. 

“We respect the First Amendment and the right to peacefully protest,” a DOJ spokesperson told RealClearInvestigations, but “journalists and observers are not provided special protections to obstruct law enforcement operations.”

Northwestern University Law Professor Steven Lubet, who has criticized the Trump administration’s approach to immigration, concurred that legal observers “have no special legal status,” nor do journalists have “license to engage in violence or disruption.” But, he added, "law enforcement authorities should have a heavy burden to show that a journalist...or legal observer...had overstepped their role."

Although it did not respond to a request for comment, the American Civil Liberties Union has litigated against federal law enforcement authorities in connection with ICE’s activities in Minnesota. It argues that the government is violating the “constitutional rights” of people “observing, documenting, and protesting ICE activity in their neighborhoods.”

Like so many issues, the very nature of protest and the definitions of legal observers and journalists have come into question during the Trump years. America has a long history of protest, but the anti-ICE protests are different. Typically, protestors have engaged in somewhat organized demonstrations, with law enforcement responding if there is violence or property damage. But residents of Minneapolis, Los Angeles, and other sanctuary jurisdictions to which the second Trump administration has surged ICE agents have turned this dynamic on its head by arriving at the scene in response to law enforcement actions, and sometimes challenging such efforts.

It is hard to distinguish protestor from legal observer as many self-described ICE-watchers pursue officers in their cars and approach them during encounters – often times with phone in hand to record the events, and, they claim, to deter misconduct. Alex Pretti, an armed man who was killed by border patrol agents in Minneapolis after appearing to come to the assistance of another protestor, had been filming the scene before his deadly encounter. While he was widely described as a legal observer, just a few days prior, he had kicked in the taillight of an ICE vehicle, raising the murky issue of whether one can toggle back and forth between protester and observer depending on the circumstances.

The fine line between participant and observer also emerged during the Kyle Rittenhouse murder case. Rittenhouse shot three people, two fatally, during the Black Lives Matter unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in August 2020. The lone survivor, Gaige Grosskreutz, testified that he had pointed his gun at Rittenhouse, leading the then-17-year-old to shoot in apparent self-defense – a turning point in the trial leading to Rittenhouse’s acquittal. Grosskreutz was operating not only as a paramedic when the incident occurred, but also as an ACLU legal observer.

The decline of traditional news outlets has also muddied the waters, giving rise to the concept of citizen journalists. Given his long career at CNN, Lemon, who works independently, may qualify as a journalist – though the government alleges he was not just reporting on but participating in the church disruption. The question, however, can be harder to answer when it involves bloggers and those who post news on social media. Similarly, where journalists have long been constrained by the fear of being fired for violating professional standards of neutrality, such guardrails have been weakened in the new, highly politicized media landscape.  

As growing numbers of Americans have vowed to ramp up resistance to President Trump’s policies, and the administration seems committed to arresting what it deems unlawful actors, these definitions may take on added significance. Judges and juries will have to weigh First Amendment-protected activities against law enforcement imperatives and make judgment calls about where to draw the line based on the facts and evidence in each case. So too will prosecutors, often operating in Democrat-dominated jurisdictions, who must weigh these competing claims.

Black Panthers and the Constitution

Legal observers exist to help vindicate the First Amendment rights of the assembled. According to the National Lawyers Guild, which formalized the practice, such observers “create documentation during events which can later be use (sic) in defense cases, public statements, and litigation which aims to hold law enforcement agencies accountable for the actions of their officers.” 

The Guild notes that legal observation has its roots in the Black Panthers’ “cop watch” activities of the late 1960s, whereby that militant organization “conducted armed citizens’ patrols in order to monitor the behavior of law enforcement officers in the Oakland Police Department.”

In 1968, in connection with anti-war and racial justice demonstrations in New York City, the Guild “took components from this practice” of cop watch to develop its legal observer program – the self-described “eyes and ears” of a larger infrastructure of “arrest hotlines, jail support teams, community bail funds ... attorney referral networks, and more.”

Those who have adopted the Guild’s practice, such as the Minnesota ICE Watch group with which Good was reportedly affiliated, have advocated for activities that blur the line between observation and participation in protests. They defend their actions as a response to ICE agents who, they claim, routinely use excessive force, including in the killings of Good and Pretti.

According to its social media postings, Minnesota ICE Watch exists not only for the purpose of “documenting” and “archiving” but “resisting … ICE, Police and all Colonial Militarized Regimes.” 

Minnesota ICE Watch’s Instagram account shows the group has disseminated materials detailing how to share intelligence about agents’ movements and tipping off illegal aliens to impending raids. They also advise taking “direct action” against authorities to prevent such a “kidnapping,” including harboring those being pursued in one’s car or a “lockable room.” 

Likewise, according to a City Journal review of trainings and communications of “Defend the 612,” a prominent organizer of anti-ICE activities, including ICE watch trainings in Minnesota, “members and related officials have encouraged protesters to impede law enforcement; pushed civilians toward legally and physically risky confrontations; and helped mobilize a counterprotest that turned violent.” 

Blurry Lines

Some anti-ICE groups, as well as the Guild and the ACLU, warn activists that there is a line between protected behavior and that which might run afoul of the law, and that observers may sometimes become liable as actors. 

The Guild warns that law enforcement may smudge that line. “Just because you have legal rights does not mean the government will respect them. In fact, law enforcement will generally trample over your rights,” its “Know Your Risks” pamphlet reads. 

Leigh Ann O’Neill, the chief legal affairs officer of the conservative America First Policy Institute, told RCI that “Observing…officials in public is generally lawful, but conduct that harasses, intimidates, doxxes, obstructs, or aids evasion of lawful enforcement can trigger criminal liability.” 

For its part, DOJ has slapped some 650-plus individuals with charges under federal law since the summer of 2025, according to a recent Reuters analysis – including for allegedly following federal agents in their cars. In some instances, media reports suggest that prosecutors have downgraded such charges or chosen not to prosecute.

In Minnesota, prosecutors have reduced charges from felonies to misdemeanors or dismissed them in 20 cases pertaining to alleged attacks on law enforcement. In cities such as Chicago and Los Angeles, prosecutors have similarly found some of their cases dismissed or unsuccessful due to a lack of sufficient evidence or from overcharging defendants, judges have suggested. A Wall Street Journal analysis suggests similar trends regarding cases in which defendants were accused publicly of assaulting federal officers.

Arrests and Lawsuits

In response to media scrutiny suggesting an overzealousness in pursuing such cases, outgoing Department of Homeland Security Director Kristi Noem reported that vehicular attacks, death threats, and assaults against ICE agents increased dramatically from when Trump took office to the end of 2025. DHS officials reported 275 assaults as compared to the 19 reported assaults during the same period in 2024.

Meanwhile, in a counter-offensive against the immigration cops, the ACLU, TNG-NCWA, and dozens of individuals, including self-described observers and journalists, have filed suit in Minnesota against the Trump administration, claiming federal agents violated their rights during “Operation Metro Surge” and in analogous operations in cities across the country. “[O]bservers and protesters have been met with gratuitous uses of force, threats, detention, and intimidation ... all in an attempt to chill, discourage, prevent, and retaliate against protesters and observers from exercising their First Amendment rights,” the plaintiffs allege.

Amid an outcry from Democratic officials and anti-ICE activists over outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s casting of Good’s conduct as “domestic terrorism,” Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said in January that the department would not be investigating Good’s killing.

Conversely, shortly after the shooting of Pretti, the Justice Department opened a civil rights investigation into the incident.

While opponents of the Trump administration’s mass deportation policy try to halt it, Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel have indicated the bureau is probing the networks behind anti-ICE activism.

Journalism or Activism?

Although reporters have a well-established constitutional right to gather the news, they cannot break the law to do so.

“Journalists have no special exemption from generally applicable laws if they trespass, interfere with someone’s right to worship, or otherwise engage in illegal activity,” O’Neill said. Many journalists, for example, have been jailed for refusing to identify anonymous sources of classified material.

In Don Lemon’s case, the government alleges that he – and 38 others – conspired to and violated the rights of worshippers at St. Paul’s Cities Church to freely practice their religion. Prosecutors allege in their indictment that Lemon did not act exclusively as an independent journalist but as a co-conspirator in an illicit operation. Among other things, they claim that he “took steps to maintain operational secrecy” when livestreaming in advance of what Lemon described as the “resistance” action; hounded the pastor with questions “to promote the operation’s message;” ignored the pastor’s request to leave the church; and stood at the church’s main door “where he confronted some congregants and physically obstructed them as they tried to exit…”

Lemon said in a statement that he was arrested “for doing what I have been doing for 30 years. The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution protects that work for me and countless other journalists who do what I do. I stand with all of them, and I will not be silenced. I look forward to my day in court.”

While accepting a Samizdat Prize last month from the RealClearFoundation – which supports RCI – for his work defending free speech, Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz argued that Lemon “helped promote the cause of journalism.”

“Now, he may have gone beyond journalism. He may have blocked entrances. He may have done things that don’t deserve journalism,” Dershowitz said. “But to the extent you have any doubts, they should always be resolved in favor of the First Amendment and in favor of journalism.”

Unequal Justice?

Just as supporters of Lemon believe that Trump officials are targeting journalists they see as liberal – with AG Bondi ordering agents to arrest Lemon, and three others – some say prosecutors under the Biden administration went after reporters it considered ideological foes. William Shipley, a former federal prosecutor turned criminal defender who represented some 90 defendants connected to the January 6 riots in Washington, D.C., said one of his clients, conservative freelance journalist Steve Baker, was at the Capitol capturing footage that would be licensed to several outlets subsequently. Chasing the story, he entered the Capitol during the riot.

Several years later, Baker was charged with four nonviolent misdemeanor counts, including trespassing and disorderly conduct, for which he was arrested.

Shipley would argue in court that he had identified some 60 other journalists who had done some or all of the same things Baker did that day, but went unprosecuted.

The government “singled out conservative members of the press and used commentary by them either recorded in real time, or things they reported later, to show ‘support’ for the rioters and then prosecuted them based in part on that commentary,” Shipley said. 

“At the same time, left-wing reporters who did the exact same acts were not prosecuted and won awards for their ‘coverage’ because they expressed condemnation of the rioters.”

Baker would plead guilty to charges shortly after the 2024 election, only to be pardoned by President Donald Trump several weeks later.

Filmmaker Georgia Fort was charged as a co-conspirator alongside Lemon in the Cities Church disturbance. She said following her release from jail that “As a journalist who has worked in media for more than 17 years, I leave this federal courthouse today with one question, ‘Do we have a Constitution’?”

Lawyers for Lemon and Fort, in a joint filing, asserted that they were each present at Cities Church “in their capacities as journalists.” “At no point did either engage in chanting or other behavior characteristic of protesting or activism,” they represented to the court.

Lemon has publicly said he didn’t enter the church with the protestors and didn’t impede or intimidate anyone. “They said that I peppered people with questions. That’s what reporters do,” he argued.

Meanwhile, despite ICE having decamped from the Twin Cities, the administration’s opponents are ramping up for more activism.

In February, the No Kings movement launched a series of trainings nationwide as part of its “Eyes on ICE” monitoring program – a precursor to what the group is billing as the “largest nonviolent protest in American history” on March 28th.

“When the Trump administration sends mass militia to terrorize neighborhoods, retaliates against people who protest, or uses federal power to punish those who speak out, it sends a clear message: to stay silent or to pay the price,” the emcee to one such training session, progressive activist Ash-Lee Woodard Henderson said.

Documenting and recording ICE agents while carrying out their duties, she and those who followed her argued, would be a critical tool to “resist” such “occupying” forces.

Meanwhile, Congress remains at an impasse over immigration enforcement, with Democrats seeking to impose significant restraints on ICE, while Republicans seek to curtail sanctuary policies – and potentially dramatically increase the penalties for interfering with ICE officers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 11:40