'Door Is Not Closed': Mediators Still Press For Iran Deal After US Demanded 20-Year Halt To Nuclear Program

There's currently some consensus among international reports that the weekend US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan fundamentally broke down over the nuclear issue. The question of Iran's enriched uranium has at times over the course of the war taken a front seat and at other times a back seat when it comes to Washington's evolving justifications and war aims in launching Operation Epic Fury.

On Monday a US official has been cited in Axios as saying Iran must halt its nuclear enrichment program for 20 years to end the war, scaling back from an earlier White House demand for a permanent end to enrichment. And that's when sources say the Iranians countered with a shorter "single digit" period.

via Al Jazeera

The unnamed sources explained that during talks in Islamabad the Iranian mediators countered with a proposal to halt enrichment for less than ten years.

Multiple Middle Eastern countries are still working to mediate a resolution, as both Washington and Tehran moved away from maximalist positions on enrichment. Before the talks, Trump demanded a permanent halt, while Iran pushed for a deal allowing a civilian nuclear program without additional restrictions.

Al Jazeera reports of where things stand in the following:

Pakistan, which spent weeks positioning itself as a mediator and succeeded in bringing both sides into the same room, emerged with its role intact. But officials acknowledge the harder phase now begins — getting American and Iranian negotiators back into talks before their differences explode into full-fledged war again.

“Pakistan has been and will continue to play its role to facilitate engagements and dialogue between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America in the days to come,” Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said in a statement after the conclusion of the talks.

And Axios in a separate follow-up report also confirms:

Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will continue talks with the U.S. and Iran in the coming days in an effort to bridge the remaining gaps and reach a deal to end the war, according to a regional source and a U.S. official.

All parties still believe a deal is possible. The mediators hope that narrowing the gaps could enable another round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires on April 21.

The two sides remain divided over Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, with Tehran having offered to dilute the stockpile if US sanctions are lifted, while the US apparently required that Iran export all the material.

President Trump has even openly talked about possibly ordering a military raid to seize the stockpile - much of it believed buried deep underground - in what would be an extremely risky and daunting mission.

Tehran has meanwhile accused Washington of making "excessive demands" - with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi having alleged negotiations collapsed because the US changed its position late in the process.

"In intensive talks at the highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with the US in good faith to end war," he earlier wrote on X. He added: “But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad [Memorandum of Understanding],’ we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade. Zero lessons earned."

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 16:40

As The Worms Turn...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"They’re holed up in a bank demanding three large pizzas, a helicopter, and a personal phone call from Sydney Sweeney..."

- Greg Gutfeld on Iran’s negotiating position

The Russians have a phrase for it: negotiation-incapable (ne peregovorosposobny).

That is what the Iran delegation demonstrated during a long day of talks with the US team over the weekend in Islamabad. What part of “no nukes” didn’t they understand? All of it, apparently. The corollary question on the table — arguably more pressing for Iran — was: how much more punishment are you willing to suffer to sustain your dream of atomic bombs? You have no defenses left, no control of your air-space. Do you just want to sit in the dark for the next hundred years?

Such is the obduracy of the Shia death cult. They have no friends left in the world. Russia, you think? Not really. That relationship was pegged to geopolitical dynamics that are dead and gone. Russia is much better off normalizing relations with the USA so we can both be safe and secure in our spheres of influence. Europe is busy committing suicide. In this situation, China is little more than Iran’s very unhappy customer. Maybe Uncle Xi Pooh Bear can try talking some sense to whoever is left in-charge at the IRGC. . . give up your lunatic bomb dreams and just re-open the dingdang gas station! Pretty Please!

Anyway, why interfere with US operations in Hormuz? The USA is wresting control of the Persian Gulf from these maniacs who can’t be trusted to just stay open for business. Japan, the two Koreas, Indochina, India, also have to stand by with mounting frustration as these jihad-happy idiots starve Asia’s economies. A change in Iran’s attitude can’t happen soon enough and Mr. Trump is on the case. The blockade starts at 10a.m. today, Monday. Whatever’s left of Iran’s revenue stream goes out the window. Maybe they lob some rockets and drones at our ships. Maybe they hit something, maybe not. We’ll see where they launch from and that will be the end of X-number of remaining launch sites. Then there are the bridges, the power plants. FAFO mofos.

About those 1000 pounds of 60-percent enriched uranium (their precious bomb fixings)... You must imagine that it is either buried deeply under the rubble of Fordoz and Isfahan, or maybe distributed in many secret hidey-holes all over the place... or perhaps sitting booby-trapped somewhere.

In short, there are many reasons to think that no special forces operation will be able to get at it.

So, the only other conclusion is that Iran must be driven to a place where they will surrender the stuff willingly themselves.

That could be a harsh place.

While you stay tuned to events there, plenty more developments break elsewhere in this raucous world.

Viktor Orban was voted out in Hungary. How did that happen? Maybe genuine public sentiment (sixteen years of Viktor O enough?). Maybe a whole lot of Soros money involved, plus EU backstage ballot shenanigans. Mr. Orban conceded graciously in any case, patriot that he is. Expect a blizzard of narratives to follow.

The truth will be hard to sort out. And it remains to be seen whether the new president, Peter Magyar, will throw open Hungary’s borders, hoist the pride flags, and give up importing Russian oil and natgas — all per the EU’s policy regime.

Here in the homieland, the fabulously loathsome Rep. Eric Swalwell, lover of Fang-Fang and accused multiple rapist of his office girls, shameless serial liar, and all-around uber jerk-off, has lost his shot at bringing additional ruin as governor to the forlorn state of California.

Might even be ejected from his seat in Congress. Oh, happy day!

Rumored to be released this week by the House Intelligence Committee: the transcript of former Intel Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson’s testimony about events that led to Impeachment #1 of Donald Trump in 2019.

The transcript has been locked away in a vault since October, 2019. Tulsi Gabbard rooted it out. The shadowy Atkinson played a crucial role in positioning “whistleblower” Eric Ciaramella to spark off charges of the “Ukraine quid pro quo” phone call against the president. Ciaramella was then a CIA agent planted in the National Security Council. He may have been involved earlier in co-authoring the fake Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) that kicked off the RussiaGate hoax in 2017. For Impeachment #1 Atkinson reportedly changed the whistleblower rules to allow Ciaramella to convey second-hand hearsay from sketchy NSC member Col. Alexander Vindman to Rep. Adam Schiff, then chairman of the House Intel Committee. The chain of actions suggests the impeachment was a CIA setup.

The CIA director at the time was Avril Haines.

Ms. Haines ran the London CIA field office during the period when former MI6 agent Christopher Steele was concocting the notorious Steele Dossier at the center of RussiaGate.

It has long been suspected that RussiaGate was a joint CIA / MI6 operation.

Isn’t it about time that Avril Haines sat for a deposition in these various matters?

It might be nice to know if our main Intel Agency was involved in serial schemes to overthrow the US government.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 16:20

As US Initiates Blockade Of Hormuz, Trump Warns Any Iranian Ships Coming Near Will Be 'Eliminated' Summary

• US pressed Iran to stop all Iranian enrichment for 20 years, after which Iran countered less than ten years, at which point the weekend negotiations broke down (Axios). Still, mediators say 'door not closed' on pursuit of an agreement.

• Iran's military says the US blockade on Gulf ports, now in effect, is an "illegal" act tantamount to "piracy" as Trump is also weighing limited strikes on Iran. Trump warns Iranian fast boats to be 'eliminated'.

• US military says it is enforcing the blockade in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, Reuters reports. No major incidents or acts of aggression reported, hours into US operation.

• Pundits review breakdown of Pakistan talks, where the "gaps were enormous" - and yet Iran's FM says the sides were "inches away" from an "Islamabad MoU".

• Israel-Hezbollah fighting persists on eve of planned Tuesday talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese officials.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 13% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  * You can support us by picking up a Rugged Multitool

Mediators Still Press For Iran Deal After US Demanded 20-Year Halt To Nuclear Program

On Monday a US official has been cited in Axios as saying Iran must halt its nuclear enrichment program for 20 years to end the war, scaling back from an earlier White House demand for a permanent end to enrichment. And that's when sources say the Iranians countered with a shorter "single digit" period, or less than ten years.

Multiple Middle Eastern countries are still working to mediate a resolution, as both Washington and Tehran moved away from maximalist positions on enrichment. Before the talks, Trump demanded a permanent halt, while Iran pushed for a deal allowing a civilian nuclear program without additional restrictions. Axios has further said the "door is not closed" on a deal, but certainly the two sides' are still far apart, with Tehran accusing Washington of inexplicably reverting to intolerable "maximalist demands."

At Least 15 US Navy Ships Enforce Blockade

The Wall Street Journal has newly detailed that more 15 American warships are now in place to support the operation, in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The report further specified that "An advisory to mariners from U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with Britain's Royal Navy, said maritime-access restrictions were being enforced for Iranian ports and coastal areas along the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and parts of the Arabian Sea.

"Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, ​diversion, and capture," a notification from US Central Command (CENTCOM) has said. And UKMTO has warned maritime traffic, "These access restrictions apply without distinction to vessels of any flag engaging with Iranian ports, oil terminals, or coastal facilities." Trump boasts the following on Monday:

Trump: Iranian Ships Coming Near Blockade Will Be Eliminated

The Trump-ordered US military blockade of the Hormuz Strait has gone into effect as of early evening local time (and 10am in the US), and Trump soon after issued the below Truth Social message warning that if any of Iran's ships - which he says at this point are merely small 'fast attack ships' - come "anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated." He described this will be "the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers" - in reference to the Caribbean and prior Venezuela operations.

The US Navy is said to be operating from the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea while enforcing it. Within the first couple hours of it being in place, there have been no initial reported hostile incidents. In effect a standoff is ensuing.

As a reminder, after the earlier CENTCOM announcement of the blockade plans, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Sunday had declared, "enjoy the current pump figures," adding that "with the so-called ‘blockade,’ Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–5 gas."

Gaps Were Enormous

In terms of airstrikes and rockets being lobbed across the Middle East, things have been relatively quiet since US-Iranian talks in Pakistan broke down over the weekend. As we reported earlier President Trump is mulling possible limited strikes on the Islamic Republic from here on out. The previously agreed-upon two week ceasefire is still holding despite the Pakistan talks having collapsed with no plans for any future round.

The only area that continues to see significant exchanges of fire is the Israel-Lebanon situation, where on Monday regional outlets are reporting a flurry of new Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel, alongside heavy IDF strikes on southern Lebanon from Sunday evening into Monday.

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi had summarized the situation from Tehran's point of view, writing on X Sunday that Iran and the US were "inches away" from an "Islamabad MoU" following "intensive talks at highest level in 47 years." He continued, "We encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts and blockade," before concluding: "Zero lessons earned. Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity." Some of the latest:

IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE STUDYING ABANDONING URANIUM ENRICHMENT AS A U.S. CONDITION FOR ENDING THE WAR - NEW YORK POST

NEW YORK POST: IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE STUDYING ABANDONING URANIUM ENRICHMENT AS A U.S. CONDITION FOR ENDING THE WAR

Oil dumped on the headline once it hit Reuters:

Meanwhile Israeli Channel 12 journalist Amit Segal in an Islamabad post mortem has affirmed that the "gaps were enormous" between the two sides prior to Vice President JD Vance and his team calling it quits and flying back to Washington by early Sunday. "The Americans agreed to release a certain portion of the frozen funds and to end the war in the negotiations in Islamabad," writes Segal. "In return, they demanded a 20‑year freeze on enrichment, the removal of enriched material from Iran, and free navigation in Hormuz without tax payments." The nuclear front, he notes: "The Iranians discussed the nuclear issue contrary to instructions from Tehran, but the gaps were enormous."

Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf had impressed the American team as a “refined and professional bargainer, and potential leader of a new Iran.”

Source: David Ignatius, WaPo pic.twitter.com/HyEa7RnsIo

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 13, 2026

Hormuz Strait Latest Threats

But after President Trump has begun his own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (or is imminently about to begin), warning that the US military will "finish up the little that is left of Iran" - two ⁠oil ⁠tankers linked to Iran have exited the Gulf via the ⁠Strait of Hormuz, shipping data from Kpler and LSEG show. Reuters identified one as the tanker Auroura, ⁠laden with Iranian ⁠oil products, and the other is the diesel-carrying New Future loaded from ⁠the Hamriyah port ⁠in the UAE.

The ongoing standoff has resulted in a fresh Monday warning out of Iran's armed forces. It said according to state-run IRIB News, also cited in Bloomberg: "If the security of Iran’s ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is threatened, no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe." The statement added that "security in the ports of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for no one." US restrictions on the movement of vessels in international waters are "illegal and constitute an act of piracy" and thus Iran stands ready to "firmly implement a permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz." Reuters reports Monday:

The U.S. military will enforce a ​blockade in the Gulf of Oman ‌and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and it will apply to all vessel ​traffic regardless of flag, the U.S. Central ​Command said in a note to ⁠seafarers seen by Reuters on Monday.

The note ​said the blockade would come into effect at ​1400 GMT on Monday.

Meanwhile the Europeans continue to pay lip service joining some kind of coalition to reopen the strait. France and the United Kingdom have said they are busy organizing a conference for the coming days for countries seeking to establish a "strictly defensive" and "peaceful" mission aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. French President Emmanuel Macron stated on X Monday that "France stands ready to play its full part, as it has consistently sought to do since the very first day of the conflict."

No effort must be spared to swiftly reach, through diplomatic means, a strong and lasting settlement to the conflict in the Middle East.

Such a settlement must provide the region with a robust framework enabling all to live in peace and security.…

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) April 13, 2026

He also made clear France's position that the "core issues" of Iran's nuclear program as well as ballistic missile arsenal must still be addressed. According to Bloomberg, the UK continues to resist calls from Washington for a proposed Hormuz blockade. This ensures another point of contention between Trump and PM Keir Starmer.

Lingering Fighting in Lebanon on Eve of Washington Talks

Tit-for-tat attacks across the Israel-Lebanon border have not ceased, while certainly becoming less severe compared to the last Wednesday massive surprise Israeli attacks on Beirut and the south. However, Al Jazeera reports Monday that "Israeli attacks have not let up in southern Lebanon, hitting many villages and towns, with the latest attacks on Nabatieh al-Fawqa, al-Abbassieh and Bint Jbeil."

Hezbollah in turn declared it targeted Israeli soldiers in the Shlomi settlement "with a swarm of attack drones." Warning sirens have continued to blare across Northern Israel and the Galilee area as a result, with Israeli media reporting that four rockets were fired by Hezbollah, but Israeli defenses were able to intercept two, with the other pair falling in an open area and no reports of casualties. 

⚡️Latge scale drone attack in the north now pic.twitter.com/UNLia6ipkv

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 13, 2026

Lebanon's National News Agency has said that Israeli forces struck at least 30 locations across southern Lebanon on Sunday, along with areas of the western Beqaa Valley. From Sunday into Monday at least five people were killed and nine injured in strikes on Bazouriyeh, amid an ongoing rescue effort. One strike hit the town's main school and damaged the structure, and elsewhere one person was killed in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, another in Sir al-Gharbiya, and two residents of Shoukin were killed early Monday morning.

Planned peace talks involving Israel and Lebanon are still set to go forward for Tuesday in Washington. Israel's ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, is spearheading the Israeli side.

"In the conversation earlier today in Washington between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to Washington, together with the US ambassador to Lebanon, and under the auspices of the US State Department, Israel agreed to begin formal peace negotiations this coming Tuesday," Leiter said in a statement. "Israel refused to discuss a ceasefire with the Hezbollah terrorist organization, which continues to attack Israel and is the main obstacle to peace between the two countries." Hezbollah too has said it would not talk to the Israelis, and so all of this means that Lebanese government officials will be doing the negotiating in Washington D.C. - setting up for only limited results if any.

Netanyahu Warns Iran Ceasefire Could End 'Quickly'

Bigger war returning imminently? Fresh Monday words from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a government meeting that the ceasefire with Iran could end quickly. He said, "I spoke yesterday with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. He called me from his plane on the way back from Islamabad. He reported to me in detail, as members of this administration do every day, on the developments in the negotiations. In this case, the explosion in the negotiations."

Destruction in Beirut, Getty Images

Netanyahu asserted that the breakdown came from the American side, which would not tolerate what he described as Iran's violation of the agreement to enter negotiations. He said the understanding required halting fire and reopening the straits immediately, which Iran did not do.

He said the Americans rejected that outcome and added that Vance made clear the central issue for President Trump and the United States is the removal of all enriched material and ensuring there will be no further enrichment in the coming years, potentially for decades, within Iran. He reminded officials that objective is also important to Israel.

More Geopolitical Latest

Via Newsquawk...

• A U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance left talks with Iran in Pakistan after 21 hours without an agreement. Vance said the U.S. sought a firm commitment that Iran would not pursue a nuclear weapon or the capability to rapidly obtain one, leaving behind a “final and best offer.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani Baqaei said progress depends on the U.S. avoiding excessive and unlawful demands and negotiating in good faith, while Iranian reporting cited disagreements and said the U.S. demanded through talks what it failed to achieve through war.
• U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy will begin blockading ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. He said talks went well and most issues were agreed except the nuclear issue, which he called the only one that matters. He added the goal is to reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” framework, accused Iran of obstructing that by claiming possible mines, called it “world extortion,” and warned that any Iranian attack on U.S. forces or vessels would be met with overwhelming force.
• United States Central Command said it will implement a blockade on maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on April 13 at 17:00 Israeli time (15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT), while not impeding vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian ports. Trump later confirmed the timing publicly.
• Trump and his advisers are considering resuming limited strikes inside Iran alongside the blockade to break the stalemate, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, while remaining open to a diplomatic resolution.
• Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey will continue efforts in the coming days to bridge gaps between the U.S. and Iran, according to Axios. All parties assess that a deal remains possible, and earlier reports said talks occurred in a positive atmosphere with continued engagement expected.
• The White House outlined red lines Iran refused, including ending all uranium enrichment, dismantling major nuclear facilities, recovering over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium believed buried underground, accepting a broader regional de-escalation framework, ending support for groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and eliminating transit tolls.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister stated: “In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war. But when just inches away from "Islamabad MoU", we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade”.
• Iranian armed forces warned that if Iran’s ports are threatened, no port in the Persian Gulf or Oman Sea will remain safe, according to IRIB News.
• An Iranian National Security Commission spokesperson called the U.S. blockade claim a bluff, according to ISNA.
• Israel Defense Forces said troops are expanding targeted ground operations against Hezbollah infrastructure in the Bint Jbeil area of southern Lebanon, killing over 100 fighters, dismantling dozens of sites, and seizing hundreds of weapons.
• Tasnim News Agency reported that the U.S. risks losing access to the Bab al-Mandab Strait if it escalates actions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the approach of military vessels toward the Strait of Hormuz violates the ceasefire, according to IRNA.
• Israeli forces carried out two airstrikes near Choukine in southern Lebanon.
• The IDF defined Lebanon as the primary operational arena, while Iran is classified as an “arena of readiness” with heightened alert.
• Israel approved plans to establish 15 permanent camps along front-line Lebanese villages, according to Al Jazeera citing Channel 12.
• Israeli forces reportedly conducted a raid targeting Beyout Al-Siyad in southern Lebanon.
• Sirens sounded in Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel, while reports indicated Hezbollah launched missile attacks on Israeli towns.
• Emmanuel Macron said France and the United Kingdom will organize a conference in the coming days to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing a defensive approach and the need for a lasting diplomatic resolution and renewed peace efforts in Lebanon.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 15:59

The Strait Of Hormuz Crisis Exposes A Fatal Flaw In Economic Thinking

Authored by Kurt Cobb via Resource Insights,

• Even a 4–5% loss in global energy supply could translate into a comparable drop in economic activity due to energy’s central role in all production.

• Disruptions in oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz are already removing a significant share of global energy, with cascading impacts across industries.

• Rising energy costs trigger widespread knock-on effects—from food and travel to semiconductors—potentially leading to a severe global recession.

A priest, an engineer, and an economist are stranded on a desert island. The first order of business is to get some food. The priest suggests that they all pray. The practical-minded engineer suggests that the three men make a net to catch some fish. But where will they find the necessary materials? The priest and the engineer turn to the economist and ask him if he has any ideas. The economist replies, "Assume a fish."

This well-worn economist joke summarizes one of the chief flaws in contemporary economic theory.

That theory almost completely ignores the role of physical resources, assuming they will always be available in the quantities we need at prices we can afford at the time we need them. When those resources aren't available, that theory begrudgingly accepts that there will be some damage to economic activity, but tends to greatly underestimate the impact.

This conceptual flaw explains why economists in most financial institutions and governments, and thus investors, are not especially alarmed at the loss of energy resources, as stock market indices remain not too far from their recent highs.

For a good summary of how contemporary economic theory goes off the rails, Australian economist Steve Keen offers a mercifully brief and comprehensible explanation. Here I will relate one critical part of that explanation. About 5.7 percent of U.S. GDP is devoted to procuring and distributing energy. Most economists will tell you that a 10 percent decline in energy availability would have a small effect on the U.S. economy. They would take the percentage of the economy devoted to energy, in this case 5.7 percent, and multiply it by 10 percent to arrive at a 0.57 percent reduction in economic activity.

This conclusion is utter nonsense and not even close to what the effects would be.

The reason is that energy is the master resource. It cannot be treated like other resources. Energy is the resource that makes all other resources available. Nothing gets done without energy. The correlation between economic activity and energy use is 0.9 (where 1.0 represents a perfect correlation). This should come as no surprise. When the economy is growing, energy use grows with it as energy fuels the economic activity that pushes growth.

What this implies is that a 10 percent reduction in energy availability is much more likely to result in a decline in economic activity closer to 10 percent than to one-half percent.  For comparison, the real GDP of the United States fell 4.3 percent during the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 through June 2009.

So, how much energy is currently being denied to the global economy by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz? No one knows for certain. We do know that liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar were previously transiting through the strait. And, close to 20 percent of the world's oil supply was also passing through the strait on a daily basis.

None of Qatar's LNG exports are currently passing through the strait. Some estimates say 12 percent of the world's oil is now prevented from leaving the Persian Gulf (though a key pipeline in Saudi Arabia that sends oil to the Red Sea has now been damaged and may add to the total outage). Some oil cargoes from Iran have left the Persian Gulf, and Iraq may soon also send cargoes. Some oil is now being diverted via pipeline to ports other than those on the Persian Gulf. Those pipelines may be attacked as the war continues, so the amount of oil previously exported via the Strait of Hormuz that is being diverted through them could decline.

Okay, here's some math to help you sort out what this all means:

1. Natural gas exports coming from Qatar are no longer being shipped. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2024, Qatar provided 3 percent of the world's natural gas, primarily in the form of LNG. Since natural gas provides about 23.5 percent of the world's energy, by multiplying 3 percent by 23.5 percent, we arrive at a loss of 0.7 percent of the world's total energy. It doesn't seem like much, except the effects are quite uneven. In the United States, we fuel our economy with pipeline natural gas and send the extra abroad both via pipeline and LNG freighters. But 42 percent of Taiwan's electricity is generated using LNG imported primarily from the Persian Gulf. That's a huge hit. And, lack of electricity spells trouble for industry, including the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, which supplies much of the world. Of course, Taiwan will seek out other sources of LNG. But will the country be able to find LNG in sufficient quantities? LNG is usually delivered under long-term contracts, and only a small fraction of it is available in what is called the spot market, which isn't committed under long-term arrangements.

2. The situation with oil is much worse. Oil provides about 31.5 percent of total world energy. Losing 12 percent of it means that the world has lost about 3.8 percent of its energy supply. Again, it may not seem like much, but it is a commodity that has very broad and critical energy and non-energy uses in the economy, for example, as the basis for gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel; as a feedstock for many petrochemicals, including plastics; and as a lubricant for countless machines and vehicles worldwide. That loss of oil availability has already had huge impacts—and has sent prices soaring because people and companies feel they cannot do without these oil products. 

We must also keep in mind that the 12 percent estimate may be too small and that the loss is cumulative. Less oil is being delivered into the global economy every day the Strait is closed. As stored oil is depleted, the situation will get desperate, and prices will move much higher. Again, effects are uneven. Countries that rely on imports and aren't wealthy will suffer the most.

3. So let's put the loss of oil and natural gas together to arrive at a total loss of 4.5 percent of the world's energy supply. Since economic activity and energy are closely correlated at 0.9, we can multiply 4.5 percent by 0.9 to get about 4 percent of economic activity potentially subtracted from the world economy every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. As mentioned above, the Great Recession caused a 4.3 percent drop in economic activity in the United States. So, it would appear that we are on track for consequences almost as severe as those of the Great Recession if this energy loss continues for much longer.

But this seriously understates the case. The Great Recession was primarily a financial crash. Though oil prices were high, there was no abrupt cutoff of supply to the market. Now, however, loss of energy and related chemical feedstocks is having many knock-on effects on the world economy. For example, rising costs for plastics will tend to curtail the consumption of such products. Rising fuel costs will lead to more expensive air travel as airlines pass fuel costs on to passengers. That means there are likely to be fewer passengers as some choose to fly less often and others are simply priced out of the market altogether. And that means further knock-on effects as fewer hotel rooms are booked and fewer rental cars are rented. Rising diesel and fertilizer prices (nitrogen fertilizer is made primarily from natural gas) will mean higher crop production costs, which are passed on to food processors and ultimately to consumers.

In addition to the squeeze on energy and non-energy products derived from oil and natural gas, about one-third of the world's helium (a co-product of natural gas reservoirs) is now unavailable. Helium is essential for the production of semiconductors. Manufacturers of semiconductors will have to pay much more for helium or curtail semiconductor production. If those manufacturers successfully purchase what they need, then other users such as hospitals (in MRI machines), university researchers, and welders (who use it as shielding gas to make strong welds) will have to go without.

In general, as consumers and businesses pull back on spending due to rising costs and economic uncertainty, demand for many products will fall and companies will be forced to cut back on production and ultimately on workers. As workers are laid off, this reduces overall demand further, which can lead to a cascade of shrinking economic activity.

Even more danger lies ahead. If the war continues and threats on both sides to destroy oil and natural gas infrastructure are carried out in part or in whole, the world could be denied even more oil and natural gas - not just for the duration of the war, but for years afterward, since it would take years to rebuild this infrastructure. Some losses might be permanent, for when underground reservoirs of oil and gas are closed in, they can be damaged for various reasons I won't go into here.

It is not easy for the economy to adjust to such a shock, and the most likely outcome is a severe recession.

Widespread destruction of oil and natural gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf could quickly lead to a worldwide depression from which it would be difficult to emerge.

We cannot, as the joke above states, just "assume a fish" or, in this case, assume that oil and natural gas deliveries will resume soon at the levels we require at the time we need them to at prices we can afford.

Rather, we are now obliged to take seriously the possibility that our energy-drenched lives will have to be curtailed in ways previously unthinkable.

The risks of a fossil-fuel dependent economy that runs on a just-in-time basis have now become manifest, and we have no choice but to adapt.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 15:40

Bank Lobby Fires Back At White House, Saying Stablecoin Study Ignores Community Bank Threat

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The American Bankers Association is warning that the White House’s latest stablecoin study is asking the wrong question and underestimating the threat to community banks.

On April 8, the Council of Economic Advisers released a 21‑page paper modeling what happens if payment stablecoin issuers are barred from paying yield. The analysis, tied to the 2025 GENIUS Act’s prohibition on interest for payment stablecoins, finds that banning yield would raise bank lending by only about 2.1 billion dollars, or roughly 0.02% of a 12 trillion dollar loan book. 

The report also estimates that consumers would forgo around 800 million dollars in returns, producing a cost‑benefit ratio of 6.6 in which lost yield outweighs gains from slightly lower borrowing costs. 

In short, White House economists concluded that stablecoin yield, under current conditions, is unlikely to trigger the sweeping deposit flight some academic studies had projected.

ABA: the real risk is yield‑paying coins at scale

The American Bankers Association fired back today, arguing the CEA framed “the wrong question” by focusing on the effect of a prohibition rather than the impact of allowing yield as the market grows. 

ABA chief economist Sayee Srinivasan and banking research VP Yikai Wang warned that yield‑paying payment stablecoins could accelerate deposit migration out of insured accounts, especially at community banks. 

Their analysis points to a future market of 1 to 2 trillion dollars in payment stablecoins, where competitive yields on tokens backed by Treasuries and other safe assets become a direct rival to local deposits. In that scenario, they say, even single states could see multi‑billion‑dollar contractions in bank lending as cheap funding drains away.

Deposit stablecoin reshuffling vs. community bank pressure

The White House paper stresses that when consumers move cash into stablecoins, issuers reinvest reserves into Treasury bills, repos, and money‑market funds, sending most of the money back into the banking system. 

That “reshuffling” means aggregate deposits stay largely flat, and, with banks currently holding over 1.1 trillion dollars in excess liquidity, the model finds little system‑wide constraint on lending. 

The ABA response counters that this misses what happens at individual institutions when deposits walk out the door, forcing community banks to replace funding with higher‑cost wholesale borrowing or by raising deposit rates. 

Those higher funding costs, they argue, translate into less local credit and higher loan rates for households, farmers, and small businesses that rely on relationship lenders.

The debate lands on top of the GENIUS Act, the 2025 law that created the first federal regime for payment stablecoins and hard‑coded a ban on issuers paying yield to holders. 

That ban does not extend to third‑party platforms, leaving room for arrangements such as Coinbase’s USDC rewards, which share reserve income with users at rates similar to high‑yield savings accounts. 

Some versions of the proposed CLARITY Act would close this channel by barring intermediaries from passing yield through, a move the CEA notes but does not fully evaluate. ABA’s authors say policymakers should treat a prohibition on yield as a “prudent safeguard” that keeps stablecoins in a payments role instead of letting them evolve into a high‑yield substitute for insured deposits.

Both sides touch on a deeper question: whether yield‑bearing stablecoins effectively create a form of narrow banking that siphons funds out of traditional credit intermediation. The CEA frames narrow‑bank‑like structures as potentially safer for payments, assuming reserves stay in Treasuries and other ultra‑safe assets, while downplaying near‑term lending losses. 

The ABA warns that pushing activity into such models without a plan to preserve community‑bank lending ignores Congress’s reluctance to endorse central bank digital currencies for similar reasons. 

With more than 80% of stablecoin activity already offshore and issuers holding Treasury portfolios larger than some sovereigns, the White House also flags global demand and U.S. borrowing costs as an underexplored part of the yield debate.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 15:00

Navy's Green Laundry Initiative Weakened A $15 Billion Carrier

Authored by Mike Fredenburg via The Epoch Times,

The $15 billion USS Ford was forced to cut short its deployment due to a 30-hour laundry fire that did millions of dollars in damage. And it has been revealed that even while it remained on station in the Gulf, Ford could not generate combat sorties for two days due to the raging 30-hour laundry fire that drove some 600 sailors out of their sleeping quarters. Thirty hours to get a laundry fire under control raises a couple of questions. Why would a laundry catch on fire, and why did it take the firefighters and damage-control personnel of the USS Ford so long to put out the laundry fire? Sadly, the answers can be found in some wrongheaded decisions the Navy made in its effort to be viewed as being “green.”

Design for the Ford-class carrier began in March 1996, and finally, more than $15 billion later, the USS Ford was fully certified for combat in April 2023. Due to a misguided green initiative, instead of installing inherently super energy-efficient steam-based laundries, the Ford-class carriers have standardized on more expensive, more complex, inherently fire-prone, ozone-based systems.

The green reason for these systems is that they supposedly save energy and water by being able to operate with cold water only, while also needing 30 percent less water than the steam-based systems the U.S. Navy has historically relied on. A Jan. 12, 2012, Navy memo made this revealing statement:

“Ozone technology is increasing the earth-friendly aspect of shipboard laundering and moving navy laundries towards a ‘greener’ process. Good for the sailor… good for the ship… good for the earth!”

This sure sounds wonderful, but just a bit of analysis shows that the ozone-based laundries, like so many of the U.S. military’s so-called green initiatives, actually weaken our military while costing more than the mechanically robust, battle-tested systems they replace.

First, it must be pointed out that when you look at the energy budget of a typical warship, including propulsion, less than 1 percent of the warship’s total energy budget is expended on freshwater production and laundry services, with the vast majority of energy being used for the ship’s propulsion and the rest of the systems described by the Expanded Ship Work Breakdown Structure for Navy ships.

What’s more, the annual cost for producing fresh water on our entire fleet of Navy ships is just $22 million, and the water for the laundry is a fraction of this. Further, every Navy ship can produce far more fresh water than it needs for its average daily use. For example, both Ford- and Nimitz-class carriers can produce double the average amount of water needed daily. Getting more specific, installing an ozone-based laundry on an Arleigh Burke destroyer, which uses gas turbines instead of steam turbines, does result in a 30 percent reduction in energy used by its laundry system, including the energy savings from reduced freshwater desalination. But with laundries consuming less than 1 percent of ships’ overall energy consumption (including propulsion), this would result in less than 0.3 percent energy savings. All other things equal, that might make sense, especially if the systems were built into the ship from the outset. But the ozone-based systems cost more, require more ongoing maintenance, are more dependent on expensive shore-based vendor support to keep them operational, and are built around a potent oxidizer—ozone.

Finally, the ozone-related laundries end up creating a much drier environment than the moist atmosphere created by steam-reliant systems. It was the drier environment that helped create the extremely dry lint that caused the Ford laundry room fire. And these high-tech laundries require very expensive, corrosion-resistant piping, fittings, and seals, along with 24/7 monitoring to ensure the highly corrosive, lung-irritating, fire-accelerating ozone does not find its way past the specialized, very expensive seals. So, even for ships that rely on gas turbines or marine diesels, such as our Navy’s destroyers and some of our larger warships, the case for ozone-based systems is highly debatable, to say the least.

But when it comes to ships like our carriers, submarines, and about 10 other large warships and support vessels whose prime movers are steam turbines, the ozone-based systems are a big, expensive step backward in pretty much every area, including the environment. This is the case because our ships’ high-pressure steam turbines naturally produce relatively low-pressure waste steam that can either be recondensed by using cold ocean water or used to heat water for a ship’s laundry and provide heat for the ship’s clothes dryers. In other words, this is nearly free energy. In contrast, the ozone-based laundry is 100 percent reliant on electricity from the ship’s generators. Thus, steam-reliant laundries are much more energy efficient or “green” than ozone-reliant ones. And while the gray water discharge from ozone-based systems is technically superior to that from steam-reliant systems, the sun and natural mechanisms in the ocean rapidly remediate all gray water discharges. Hence, from a practical environmental perspective, the gray water discharges are identical.

Sadly, not only does it seem as if the Navy wants to make ozone-based systems standard, but it has spent countless millions ripping out robust fire-resistant steam-based laundry systems on Nimitz-class carriers in order to install the expensive, high-tech, less reliable, more vendor-dependent ozone-based systems.

And there are still Nimitz-class carriers scheduled to undergo the “upgrade,” for which it would not at all be surprising to find costs of more than $10 million each to rip out the highly integrated steam-reliant laundries and replace them with ozone-reliant laundries.

Hopefully, the USS Ford fire will get the Navy, and maybe even Congress, to put a stop to the needless and arguably harmful green tech that provides no practical environmental benefits.

Hopefully, the U.S. military, under pressure from the Trump administration, will permanently move away from green virtue signaling and get back to investing in systems that provide the best possible lethality for the dollar, while maximizing the chances that our sailors, soldiers, airmen, and Marines return home safely.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 14:20

Oil Tanker Going To China Forced To Reverse Course Before Crossing Hormuz Under US Blockade

One day after a burst of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, when according to Bloomberg 19 ships crossed in either direction while Trump said that as many as 34 ships crossed the waterway on Sunday, shipping through Hormuz slumped back down again Monday, reversing Sunday's jump, as caution mounted ahead of a US naval blockade.

After 19 ships went through the Strait in either direction on Sunday - the most since the early stages of the war - the momentum reversed by Monday morning. Only four were observed passing on Monday: a single liquefied petroleum gas carrier was sighted entering the Gulf, and three small fuel tankers were raced to exit just hours before the blockade took effect at 10 a.m. New York time. 

Earlier in the day, the WSJ reported that the US has deployed more than 15 ships - including an aircraft carrier, multiple guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious assault ship and several other warships in the Middle East - in place to support the blockade. These ships have the ability to launch helicopters that support boarding operations, and some are capable of marshalling commercial vessels to specific areas to hold them in place.

The warships would likely operate outside the Strait of Hormuz to avoid threats fired by Iran, according to retired Navy Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan. “There are lots of ways you can construct this, and there are a lot of boarding forces in the region now,” Donegan said. “Don’t expect it all to be started at once, this will build. Blockades take time to have an impact.”

The UK Maritime Trade Operations also confirmed that the U.S. Navy is actively conducting enforcement operations as part of its blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas.

Meanwhile, Marine Traffic reported that at least two tankers reversed course near the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the start of the US blockade, highlighting the immediate impact on vessel movements. They flag the 188-metre tanker Rich Starry, which turned back within minutes of approaching the chokepoint. The vessel had departed Sharjah Anchorage on 13 April and was sailing laden, with a reported draught of 11.3 metres, while signalling China as its destination. A second tanker, the 175-metre tanker Ostria, also reversed course after approaching the Strait.

Two tankers turn away from Strait of Hormuz after US blockade begins

At least two tankers reversed course near the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the start of the US blockade, highlighting the immediate impact on vessel movements. According to #MarineTraffic data, the 188-metre… pic.twitter.com/dRNi7yEgJI

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) April 13, 2026

The tanker U-turns follows unconfirmed reports that China has warned the US not to block/intercept Chinese ships/tankers, or face consequences that could potentially include military provocations.

China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun reportedly sent a message to the Trump administration and the U.S. Navy emphasizing Beijing’s intent to continue operating in the Strait of Hormuz and uphold its agreements with Iran. “Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor those agreements and expect others not to interfere in our affairs" adding that “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us.”

As of 2pm ET, this threat remains unconfirmed by official medial. 

According to Bloomberg, the US blockade may prompt more ships to cut their tracking signals to avoid detection in high-risk shipping lanes, making it even harder to get an accurate picture of what’s going through.  Sunday’s outbound movements included three containerships and three bulkers primarily tied to Tehran, as well as a China-linked fuel tanker, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

On Monday, departures so far included a US-sanctioned oil products tanker and a fuel tanker involved in recent Iranian loading operations. A small LPG carrier also left the Iranian island corridor Monday morning, following an inbound transit on Sunday and an overnight stop.

Meanwhile, two sanctioned supertankers loaded with Iranian crude have anchored off Indian ports, marking what could be the first such cargoes to arrive in the country in nearly seven years.

It’s unclear how the US blockade will affect waivers and existing purchases. It is also unclear if the US will extend or undo the waiver it granted for Iran oil sanctions, now that strategy has reversed to contain Iranian oil. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 14:00

Bernstein Says Bitcoin Market Already Priced In Quantum Risk

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bernstein said Monday that Bitcoin’s selloff has already priced in much of the market’s fear around quantum computing, arguing that the threat is real but still manageable rather than an immediate existential risk.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) near 50% drawdown from its $126,198 all-time high in October 2025 is proof that the market has “priced in” several risks tied to a quantum breakthrough, partly thanks to technological progress on zero-knowledge privacy and quantum-proof cryptography that “counterbalance” the AI and quantum acceleration, Bernstein said in a Monday note shared with Cointelegraph.

The note lands two weeks after Google researchers said future quantum computers could break the elliptic-curve cryptography used across many blockchains with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in some architectures, reviving debate over how quickly Bitcoin needs a post-quantum upgrade path. This research suggested a quantum computer could crack a Bitcoin private key in nine minutes, in a theoretical scenario, which is less than Bitcoin’s 10-minute block production time.

However, Bernstein said Bitcoin core developers have “adequate time” to determine a post-quantum path. Last week, Bernstein predicted that Bitcoin has about three to five years to prepare for a post-quantum security upgrade, Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday.

Graph showing the risk that an on-spend quantum attack that takes 9 minutes to derive a private key succeeds against Bitcoin. Source: Google Quantum AI

Institutions will play constructive role in quantum-proofing Bitcoin

Bernstein said large institutional holders, including exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy, are likely to play a constructive role in any eventual consensus on a post-quantum upgrade.

“We expect institutional partners with now billions at stake to play a constructive role in building consensus on the post-quantum path.”

The note also highlighted the recently introduced BIP-360 proposal and added that slower consensus from Bitcoin developers is seen as responsible behavior when it comes to a $1.5 trillion asset.

BIP-360 is a draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal that proposes a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type designed to reduce long-exposure quantum risk by removing Taproot’s key-path vulnerability, though it does not itself add post-quantum digital signatures.

Bernstein said BIP-360 could be implemented as a soft fork for exposed Bitcoin addresses, but added that this would still leave around 8% of the BTC supply in inactive addresses vulnerable to future quantum breakthroughs.

Quantum-proofing Bitcoin is a social issue, not technical

The real challenge of quantum-proofing Bitcoin lies in the societal adoption element of the new standards, not the technical development, according to Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos blockchain.

“The coding work could be done this afternoon,” but Bitcoin holders would still need to migrate to this new standard, Breitman told Cointelegraph during an interview at EthCC 2026.

“If Bitcoin needed to migrate in the next month, they could do it from a technical perspective [...] but they can’t get everyone to migrate their key in a month, Breitman said. “It’s going to take years for people to properly migrate their keys,” he added.

Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos, interview at EthCC 2026. Source: Cointelegraph

Asset manager Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, shared a similar view in a research report last Monday. He said Bitcoin’s quantum-proofing challenges are “more social than technical,” provided that its UTXO model does not have native smart contracts and that some address types are not quantum vulnerable.

However, he warned that the community needs to find consensus on how to quantum-proof wallets where the private key has been lost or is otherwise inaccessible.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 13:40

US Property Taxes Rose 3 Percent On Average In 2025, Outpacing Inflation

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Property taxes are rising across the United States and, on average, have outpaced inflation.

Homeowners in 2025 paid a total of $396.8 billion in property taxes on more than 89.6 million single-family homes, a 3.7 percent increase from 2024, an April 9 report by real estate property data provider ATTOM states.

The average single-family home paid $4,427 in taxes, up by 3 percent from 2024, driven by a higher effective tax rate, according to the report.

The ATTOM report analyzed tax data collected from assessment offices, combined with estimated market values of single-family homes. The estimated home value of $494,231 for 2025 was down by 1.7 percent year-over-year, ATTOM noted, following a significant spike in 2024.

Nationally, the effective tax rate on single-family residences in 2025 was 0.9 percent, up slightly from the prior year and the highest since 2020, when it stood at 1.1 percent, ATTOM’s researchers wrote.

The tax growth rate is higher than the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) inflation rate, which stayed below 3 percent for most of 2025. Inflation rose to 3.3 percent in March, up by nearly a full percentage point from the start of the year, driven by higher energy and fuel costs.

Property taxes—a primary source of revenue for local governments and municipalities—have spiked largely because of a run-up in housing prices over the past five years, the nonprofit Tax Foundation stated.

In the final quarter of 2019, the median sales price of homes sold in the United States was $327,100, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reported. By the end of 2025, that figure had jumped by 24 percent to $405,300.

Homeowners can pay significantly more in property taxes as their home values increase due to higher assessed values, the Tax Foundation noted.

However, ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said property taxes in 2025 demonstrate that tax bills reflect more than just home values.

“Even with a slight dip in prices, higher tax bills combined with declining home values led to an increase in effective tax rates, underscoring the role of local government costs and shifting tax policies. Regional disparities persist, with the Northeast and Midwest continuing to see the highest burdens,” Barber said.

More than 50 percent of metropolitan areas with populations of more than 1 million residents saw their property tax bills for single-family homes rise more than 3 percent in 2025, ATTOM stated.

In the Northwest, the combination of high property tax rates and escalating home values led to some of the highest average tax bills in the country. Average tax bills in New Jersey were $10,499, followed by Connecticut at $8,901 and New Hampshire at $8,174.

Conversely, average tax bills were lowest in West Virginia at $1,081. Residents of Alabama paid an average of $1,284 in property taxes, while residents of Arkansas paid $1,387, ATTOM researchers wrote.

At the county level, Westchester County, New York, had the highest average property tax in 2025 at $18,386, followed by Marin County, California, at $16,745 and Bergen County, New Jersey, at $14,443.

Average tax calculations were derived by dividing the total amount of property taxes paid by residents of a particular county by the number of single-family residences in that area, ATTOM noted.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 13:00

Mapping The Hormuz Blockade: At Least 15 US Navy Ships Are In Place

President Trump is once again engaged in a high risk bet in hopes that Iran will buckle to US demands after failed initial truce talks in Pakistan. The blockade now in effect as of Monday seeks to starve Iran of $200 million in daily oil revenues.

The Wall Street Journal has newly detailed that more 15 American warships are now in place to support the operation, in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The report further specified that "An advisory to mariners from U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with Britain's Royal Navy, said maritime-access restrictions were being enforced for Iranian ports and coastal areas along the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and parts of the Arabian Sea."

Fox News has at the same time issued a map which purports to identify 17 total naval ships deployed in the blockade area as a Monday morning. They are listed in the map and infographic below: The location of US ships around Iran as of Monday.

via Fox News

"Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, ​diversion, and capture," a notification from US Central Command (CENTCOM) has said.

As for the advisory from the UK Maritime Trade Operations, it has warned that ships should be prepared to encounter the US blockade, and any vessels in the area must "maintain heightened situational awareness" pending more specific guidance is to follow.

*  *  * You can support us by picking up a Rugged Multitool

It lays out that additional guidance for mariners regarding "how these measures will be applied in practice, including routing, verification and authorized transit producers, are in development".

"These access restrictions apply without distinction to vessels of any flag engaging with Iranian ports, oil terminals, or coastal facilities," UKMTO said of the threatened blockade.

It added: "Further clarification is expected to be provided through subsequent advisories as information becomes available."

In the meantime Gulf states are still calling on Iran to stop using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage and as a bargaining chip. The latest Gulf leader to speak out is Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassmin Al-Thani.

He announced that he said he spoke with his Iranian counterpart on the issue on Monday. "Sheikh Mohammed emphasized the need for all parties to respond positively to ongoing mediation efforts, calling for dialogue and peaceful means to address the root causes of the crisis and reach a sustainable agreement that prevents renewed escalation," the Qatari PM's office said in a statement.

"He also underlined the importance of keeping maritime routes open and ensuring freedom of navigation, warning against using them as a bargaining chip," the statement continued.

"His Excellency further cautioned that any disruption to shipping lanes could have serious consequences for countries in the region, as well as for global energy and food supplies, with wider implications for international peace and security," it added.

USS Abraham Lincoln SPOTTED near Gulf of Oman — BBC

Satellite images from Saturday show aircraft carrier positioned about 200km south of the Iranian coast

Earlier, Reuters reported that US blockade would be enforced in Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, east of the Strait of Hormuz pic.twitter.com/2CxCzQku53

— RT (@RT_com) April 13, 2026

Soon after the blockade having taken effect, Trump issued a Truth Social message warning that if any of Iran's ships - which he says at this point are merely small 'fast attack ships' - come "anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated." He described this will be "the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers" - in reference to the Caribbean and prior Venezuela operations.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 12:20

Federal Court Strikes Down 158-Year-Old Home Distilling Ban

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal appeals court on April 10 declared a nearly 158-year-old ban on home distilling to be unconstitutional, ruling that the ban was an unnecessary and improper means for Congress to exercise its power to tax.

A judge's gavel rests on top of a desk in a courtroom in Miami on Feb. 3, 2009. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Writing for a three-judge panel in McNutt v. U.S. Department of Justice, Judge Edith Hollan Jones of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit found that the ban actually reduced tax revenue by preventing distilling in the first place, the opposite of its stated intent.

The court ruled in favor of the nonprofit Hobby Distillers Association and four of its 1,300 members, who argued that people should be free to distill spirits at home, whether as a hobby or for personal consumption—including, for instance, to create an apple pie vodka recipe one of the plaintiffs created.

The ban was part of a law passed during Reconstruction in July 1868. It imposed excise taxes on distilled spirits but also made it illegal for a person to use “any still, boiler, or other vessel for purpose of distilling” when the still was located, among other places, “in any dwelling-house” or “in any shed, yard, or enclosure connected with any dwelling-house.”

The case began in December 2023 when the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a libertarian think tank, filed suit on behalf of the Hobby Distillers Association and four individuals against the Treasury Department’s Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau and the Department of Justice.

The hobby group argued that the government’s regulatory reach could not extend to activities within a person’s home.

The face of the case was Scott McNutt, a New Jersey resident and former U.S. Coast Guard engineer.

McNutt received an unsolicited letter from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau warning him of potential civil and criminal liability after the agency learned that he may have purchased materials that could be used to distill spirits.

Under federal law, distilling in one’s home or backyard could result in a $10,000 fine and five years in prison. By contrast, home brewing of beer for personal use has been federally legal since 1978.

In July 2024, Judge Mark T. Pittman of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas sided with the plaintiffs, issuing a permanent injunction and declaring the relevant provisions of the Internal Revenue Code unconstitutional.

Competitive Enterprise Institute attorney Dan Greenberg called it “a victory for personal freedoms and for federalism,” adding in a statement at the time that the decision “reminds us that, as Americans, we live under a government of limited powers.”

The government appealed in August 2024.

The Buckeye Institute in Ohio pursued a similar challenge on behalf of John Ream, a former Boeing engineer and home-brewing hobbyist who wanted to try distilling small quantities of alcohol at home for his own personal consumption.

Buckeye attorney Andrew Grossman warned that under the government’s broad theory of federal power, “Congress could regulate or even ban the most mundane domestic activities—including home cooking, baking, gardening, and occasionally babysitting neighbor kids.”

West Virginia has already passed a law allowing households of two or more people to produce up to 10 gallons of spirits a year for personal consumption, independent of the federal ban. Most other states maintain their own restrictions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 11:40

Taiwan Helium Imports Rapidly Shift From Qatar To U.S. As Global Energy Flows Are Rewired

We've been tracking the global rewiring of energy flows from the start, including identifying who stands to emerge as the net beneficiary of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the resulting disruption across the Gulf theater. Early in the conflict, we cited energy research firm Criterion, which noted that Qatar had been dethroned as the "LNG king" as the U.S. seized the throne, reshaping the future of global gas markets.

None of this should come as a surprise. Eurasian energy flows have been rewired over the last four years, first by the Russia-Ukraine war and now by the U.S.-Iran conflict. Nord Stream was an early turning point in that structural shift, and the latest Gulf disruptions have only accelerated it.

What had been obvious to energy analysts for weeks finally broke into the mainstream over the weekend, with even Fox News plastering charts showing the U.S. has become the world's emergency gas station.

The next chart, shared by independent research firm SemiAnalysis, shows yet another rewiring of global energy flows, this time in Taiwan's helium sourcing, which was previously dominated by shipments from Qatar; this trend has quickly reversed, with U.S. helium shipments ramping up.

Key points of the SemiAnalysis chart showing the structural shift in Taiwan's helium sourcing:

Qatar dominated - until recently:

• From 2020 through most of 2024, Taiwan's helium imports were heavily dominated by Qatar (orange line)

• Volumes ramped in just a few short years, peaking above $20M/month in 2025

• That reflects Qatar's long-standing role as a low-cost, large-scale helium supplier.

Sudden reversal:

• Qatar volumes are sharply rolling over in 2026

• It's not demand-driven, given AI chip production elevated - it's linked to supply disruption or geopolitical risk and uncertainty in the Mideast, forcing Taiwanese buyers to source from more secure areas

US exporters stepping in:

• U.S. helium (blue line) was volatile and secondary for years

• But by 2026, a clear rebound in U.S. exports to Taiwan

What this all means is that, with Qatar's energy flows disrupted by war-related damage that could take years to fix, the U.S. is stepping in as a swing supplier, given that ExxonMobil's LaBarge facility in Wyoming accounts for about 20% of the world's supply.

Latest note:

• Wyoming's Helium Empire Ascends As Qatar Gas Goes Flat

Helium is critical for Taiwan because it sits at the center of the global semiconductor manufacturing chain. The gas is vital for cooling advanced chipmaking machines that produce chips for iPhones and computers.

The rewiring of global energy flows toward the U.S. comes down to one thing: the Trump administration is trying to reestablish strategic leverage after years of watching that advantage erode under Obama and Biden as China expanded its power. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 11:20

US Allies Loudly Reject Trump's Scheme To Blockade Hormuz: 'Not Getting Dragged In'

The United Kingdom and several other countries rejected Washington's plan to impose a blockade on Iranian ports and target ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which has gone into effect Monday.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer made clear his stance that "we are not supporting the blockade" in a fresh interview with BBC Radio. He emphasized that the UK is not "getting dragged in" to the US-Israeli war against Iran, but still stated that it's "vital that we get the strait open and fully open."

US Navy file image

As fully expected Spain's government also condemned the US move, with the country's Defense Minister Margarita Robles having said, "It's just another episode in this downward spiral we've slipped into," adding that Trump and Netanyahu "want to impose rules on the international community, which is illogical."

Earlier we reported that France is working with the UK on a conference to organize a "strictly defensive" and "peaceful" mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

President Emmanuel Macron said, "As regards the Strait of Hormuz, in the coming days, together with the UK, we will organize a conference with those countries prepared to contribute alongside us to a peaceful multinational mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the strait." He added, "This strictly defensive mission, separate from the warring parties to the conflict, is intended to be deployed as soon as circumstances permit."

Still, Paris has rejected a US request to join a military coalition to forcibly reopen the strait, essentially paralleling Britain's position.

At the same time Germany has not weighed in strongly one way or the other. A German government statement has said that "The US military's announcement did not mention a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but rather a blockade of Iranian ports – that is a different approach."

Meanwhile, Turkey has strongly opposed the blockade and called for renewed diplomacy, while China too is warning against escalation and urged stability.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it would begin a blockade "of all maritime traffic entering and exiting" Iranian ports starting at 10:00am Eastern Time on Monday.

//--> //--> //--> Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Yes 9% · No 92%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

It added, "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports."

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 10:45

Key Events This Week: PPI, Industrial Production, Q1 Earnings, Iran War

When it comes to the week ahead, clearly the Iran conflict will be the main focus, but there are a few other things to look out on the calendar.

First, the Q1 earnings season will start to kick off, with this week’s releases including several US financials. DB's equity strategists have a full preview, and they argue that the bottom up-analyst consensus for S&P 500 earnings growth accelerating into the mid-teens (16%) is justified by a favorable macro environment (full preview here). They expect growth to come in even stronger at 19%, with growth broadening across sectors, albeit clearly led by megacap growth and tech, along with the financials. In terms of this week’s releases, we’ll hear from Goldman Sachs today, BlackRock, JPMorgan and Citigroup on Tuesday, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, and Netflix on Thursday.

Otherwise, we have a few more data releases this week that will give us a fuller picture of how the global economy performed in Q1.

In the US, this week’s highlights include the PPI inflation reading, and economists expect there to be strong gains, echoing the uptick in the CPI last Friday. So for headline PPI, DB is looking for a monthly print of +1.0%, which would be the strongest since March 2022. And as ever, the focus will be on those components of the PPI that feed into core PCE, which is closely followed by the Fed.

A key highlight will be China’s Q1 GDP growth, with DB’s economists expecting that to come in at +4.6% on a year-on-year basis. 

On the policy side, the focus will be on Washington DC, as the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank are taking place over this week. So we’ll be hearing from a lot of officials around those events, including ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey. Moreover, we’ll also get the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook tomorrow, and this week will be the last chance to hear from Federal Reserve officials, as their blackout period ahead of the April meeting begins on Saturday.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday April 13

• Data: US March existing home sales, Canada February building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Miran speaks, ECB’s Guindos speaks, BoJ’s Ueda speaks
• Earnings: Goldman Sachs
• Other: The Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, through April 18

Tuesday April 14

• Data: US March PPI, NFIB small business optimism, China March trade balance, Japan February capacity utilisation
• Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins and Barkin speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane and Makhlouf speak, BoE's Bailey, Mann and Greene speak
• Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Blackrock
• Other: IMF’s World Economic Outlook

Wednesday April 15

• Data: US April Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, March import price index, export price index, February total net TIC flows, Japan February core machine orders, Italy February general government debt, Canada February manufacturing sales
• Central banks: Fed’s Beige Book, Fed's Bowman and Barr speak, ECB's Escriva, Schnabel and Villeroy speak, BoE's Bailey speaks
• Earnings: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley

Thursday April 16

• Data: US April New York Fed services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, March industrial production, capacity utilisation, initial jobless claims, China Q1 GDP, March retail sales, industrial production, home prices, investment, UK February monthly GDP, Canada March existing home sales, Australia March labour force survey
• Central banks: ECB’s account of the March meeting, Fed's Williams and Miran speak, ECB's Schnabel, Kazaks, Rehn, Kocher, Radev, Villeroy and Lane speaks, BoE's Taylor speaks
• Earnings: TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, Abbott Laboratories, Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, Tesco

Friday April 17

• Data: Italy February trade balance, current account balance, ECB February current account, Eurozone February trade balance, Canada March housing starts, February international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin and Waller speak
• Earnings: Ericsson

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the PPI on Tuesday and the industrial production report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Miran on Monday, Governor Barr on Tuesday, New York Fed President Williams on Thursday, and Governor Waller on Friday. 

Monday, April 13 

• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, March (GS -1.5%, consensus -0.8%, last +1.7%)
• 06:20 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a moderated conversation at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington DC. Q&A is expected. On March 30, Miran said, "I think that [the funds rate] could be about a point easier, gradually done over the course of a year."

Tuesday, April 14 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, March (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.1%, last +0.7%); PPI ex-food and energy, March (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, March (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%):
• 12:15 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington DC. Q&A is expected. On April 3, Goolsbee said, “Before the war, before we got the oil shock, I'd been on the optimistic side on rates. I believed rates could come down even multiple times in 2026, [but the energy shock] complicates that picture for me. If we're truly not going to see any improvement in inflation, to me that starts pushing these decisions off to 2027 at the earliest.”
• 12:45 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on rural economic development at the Strengthening America's Economy through Rural Investment forum in Washington DC. Speech text is expected. On March 26, Barr said, “Given the considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on our economy, as well as the other factors I mentioned, it makes sense to take some time to assess conditions.” He added, “Our current policy stance puts us in a good place to hold steady while we evaluate incoming data, the evolving forecast, and the balance of risks.”
• 01:00 PM Fed Governor Barr, Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter), Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter), and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speak: Fed Governor Michael Barr will moderate a fireside chat on strengthening America's economy through rural investment with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson in Washington DC. On March 27, Barkin said, “With risks to both the labor market and inflation, and the outlook foggy, it felt prudent to hold rates and await more clarity on how we should be leaning to best support the economy going forward.” On the same day, Paulson said, “If inflation were at the 2% target, I would feel more comfortable being patient, keeping monetary policy on ‌hold and waiting to see if a hypothetical growth surge puts upward pressure on inflation. But if inflation is above 2 percent and has been for some time, I would be more cautious… I would be inclined to weight the possibility of overheating more heavily in determining appropriate policy.”

Wednesday, April 15 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, March (consensus +2.2%, last +1.3%): Export price index, March (consensus 1.7%, last +1.5%)
• 08:30 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in a conversation on consumer compliance supervision and regulation at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition Just Economy Conference in Washington DC.
• 01:45 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will participate in a conversation on banking regulation at the Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum in Washington DC.
• 02:00 PM Fed releases Beige book, April meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the March FOMC meeting period noted that overall economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with two Districts reporting no change and three reporting a modest decline. In this month’s Beige Book, we will look for anecdotes related to how firms are responding to the conflict in the Middle East, the evolution of labor demand, and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.

Thursday, April 16 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 11 (GS 215k, consensus 214k, last 219k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 4 (consensus 1,805k, last 1,794k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, April (GS 10.0, consensus 10.0, last 18.1): 08:35 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 30, Williams said, “The conflict in the Middle East could result in a large supply shock with pronounced effects that simultaneously raises inflation.” He added, “This is an unusual set of circumstances, but the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals.”
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, March (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%): Manufacturing production, March (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Capacity utilization, March (GS 76.3%, consensus 76.3%, last 76.3%): We estimate industrial production was unchanged in March, reflecting strong natural gas production but weak auto production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.3%.
• 10:35 AM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a conversation on global macroeconomics at the Washington Economic Festival in Washington DC.

Friday, April 17 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 
• 12:15 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak on the economic outlook at the Citadel Directors Institute in Charleston, SC. Q&A is expected.
• 02:00 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver the David Kaserman Memorial Lecture on the economic outlook at Auburn University. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 20, Waller said, “If things go reasonably well and the labor market continues to be weak, I would start advocating again for cutting the policy rate later this year.”

Soruce: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 10:35

Master And Commander-In-Chief

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

April – 2026. The IRGC is master of the Strait of Hormuz. Only the American fleet stands before them. Oceans are now battlefields.

Financial markets are back in a risk-off mood today following news over the weekend that US-Iran peace talks ended without agreement and a statement by CENTCOM that the United States will be initiating its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from today. President Trump took to Truth Social to say that he has instructed US forces to “interdict” every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran, while also threatening that any Iranian who fires upon US or peaceful vessels will be “blown to hell”.

10-year bond yields in Australia and New Zealand have leapt 6-7bps in early trade, Asian equities have opened mostly lower, US equity futures are pointing toward losses of around 1%, and front-month Brent crude futures are up by almost 8% to $102.69/bbl. Brent crude for immediate delivery closed down almost $6 at $125.88/bbl on Friday, but is sure to jump today as the market contemplates the loss of Iranian export volumes and a potential re-start of the war.

The US Dollar spot index is trading firmer this morning and both the CAD and NOK are holding up comparatively well as markets again countenance higher-for-longer energy prices. The Euro is 0.32% lower early in the Asian session despite news over the weekend that Peter Magyar’s comparatively pro-EU Tisza party has comprehensively defeated incumbent Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party – securing a two-thirds majority in the 199 seat parliament.

While moves on the Bloomberg screen this morning are not particularly suggestive of massive dislocations underway, the implications of the weekend’s events are potentially much more serious than the price action is letting on.

RaboResearch’s Global Strategist Michael Every writes:

When Trump first threatened Greenland, we argued Europe’s inability to resist such a US advance underlined its decline since 1956’s Suez Crisis, at US hands, first revealed that European powers were no longer ‘Great’. The Greenland episode made the EU look like the Egypt of 1956.

When this Iran War loomed, we asked if the US was still the same Power as in 1956 or had also slid to become like then UK/France, with markets (or countries) able to force it into retreat. We underlined repeatedly that this outcome, which some wrongly saw as a market-friendly TACO, would open a Pandora’s Box for western assets as the foundation of US hegemony on which they are built crumbles.

For that reason, we argued the US would continue to escalate to try to deescalate on its terms, especially as the recent ceasefire had left Iran in control of its enriched uranium and control of the Strait of Hormuz – an intolerable situation. Indeed, we also made clear that things would get worse, geopolitically, before they got better – which naturally risked that we just went ‘off the cliff’ instead.

On Saturday, the collapse in peace talks over the nuclear, Hormuz, and Iran proxy issues revealed that the gulf between the parties to negotiation is as wide as the Persian Gulf through which very little energy, fertiliser, sulphur, or helium is currently flowing.

In response, and in addition to the 50% tariff announced last week against states arming Iran, Trump announced renewed sanctions vs Iranian oil at sea and against any country paying a toll to Iran to get energy. He also played his ‘trump’ card of a US naval blockade of Hormuz to take effect from 10am EST today. Having sent two Arleigh Burke destroyers through the Strait over the weekend, the US will now begin actions to clear any marine mines, thereby removing a key obstacle to the resumption of commercial shipping that Iran claims it has no capacity to remove itself.

The US blockade isn’t aimed at stopping GCC energy and goods flowing, which they aren’t anyway, but will stop Iran exporting energy, or importing food, industrial parts, or weaponry by sea. The economic impact will be enormous, and in around 13 days, Iranian oil storage will be full, forcing well shut-ins and risking permanent supply-side damage. The political goal is clear: force the Iranian regime faction negotiating with the US to destroy those which oppose the US peace deal; and/or incentivise the Iranian population to rise up against the regime again.

Yet the loss of another 2m Iranian barrels of oil a day is a huge blow to the world economy. In that, the US geopolitical goals are: (1) to get reluctant allies to step up and help reopen Hormuz by force; and (2) to force China to step in and help lean on Tehran to submit. (Recall our 2026 financial markets outlook in October 2025, ‘Who has the cards?’, argued the US ace in this realpolitik poker was to use its global military reach to disrupt upstream commodity supply chains heading to rivals and take control of energy – a hand it already played early in 2026 in Venezuela.)

On one hand, US escalation might work. Yet unless Iran were to crumble quickly, the prospect is of an even deeper global energy crisis ahead first. Indeed, de-mining Hormuz, to say nothing of dealing with drone and missile attacks, could take many weeks (faster with allies like Japan, for instance) when the energy damage being done already risks becoming exponential daily.

Yet Iran can also escalate. If they force a ship through the blockade or fire at the US, the current ceasefire breaks down and war is back. Moreover, despite reticence to act so far, the Iran-proxy Houthis could block the key Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint and perhaps the entire Red Sea. That would risk stripping out another 7m barrels a day of Saudi oil flows, making everything exponentially worse.

Moreover, other parties can escalate. US allies could walk away from Trump at an even higher economic and geopolitical price (on the latter, the US approach is clearly, ‘To the winner the spoils, to the spoilers, no wins). China could use economic coercion on US supply chains; or send an oil tanker through Hormuz, thereby risking blowing up US-China relations or forcing the US to ‘blink’ on the blockade; and some sources allege, it is sending military aid, which USTR Greer has said would make the upcoming Xi-Trump talks aimed at trade detente more difficult.

As such, the US Hormuz blockade is short term bullish for energy prices, bearish for world growth and, at worst, risks questions moving from ‘1956?’ to ‘1962?’, which is when we saw the US-USSR Cuban Missile Crisis. Again any TACO from there would merely take us back to 1956, which is not anywhere a rules-based order in reality underpinned by US military power arguably needs to be. Our base case Hormuz scenario (an end to hostilities by mid April and slow re-opening of the Strait thereafter) is hanging on by its finger nails for now, but may soon need to be revised in a more bearish direction.

Ironically, in the weekend’s Hungarian election result Brussels and EU capitals may see parallels to 1956’s Hungarian Uprising. Magyar’s defeat of Orban potentially removes a major internal obstacle to EU efforts to deal with the conflux of geopolitical and geoeconomic crises plaguing it. That said, Magyar is hardly a Eurocrat. Like Orban, he too is socially conservative, anti-immigration, and sceptical of Ukraine. Further EU-Budapest tensions may yet lie ahead, while Czechia and Slovakia are still Orban-esque in their own right.

Prior to jetting off to Islamabad for the Iran negotiations, US Vice President Vance had been in Hungary to support Orban’s campaign for re-election. The election outcome also shows – once again – that a muscular ‘America First’ message doesn’t sell well outside of the US. That doesn’t mean the policy stops: it just risks more global fragmentation. Allies are already souring on US links and – in some cases (Canada and Spain, for example) – contemplating deeper engagement with the US main strategic rival: China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 10:20

Existing US Home Sales Plunged In March, Despite Falling Mortgage Rates

Affordability-aiding lower mortgage rates battled a sentiment-sapping surge in geopolitical panic in March, with analysts expecting the latter to outweigh the former with a modest 0.7% MoM decline (after January's plunged - weather? - and February's modest rebound).

The analysts under-estimated the fear from war-mongering as existing home sales plunged 3.6% MoM (down bigly from an upwardly revised 2.7% MoM jump in Feb). That is the second biggest drop in existing home sales since Nov 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

That dragged Existing Home Sale SAAR back below 4 million homes (3.98m to be exact), near the lowest level since Lehman...

Source: Bloomberg

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 1.4% from a year earlier in March, to $408,800.

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing Existing (Used) House prices back above New House Prices...

The inventory of previously owned homes edged up to a four-month high but remains historically depressed.

Source: Bloomberg

Contract signings declined across all  regions, according to the NAR.

Sales in the Northeast slid to the lowest on record in data going back to 1999, while those in the Midwest matched the weakest pace since 2011.

The NAR also slashed its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4%, from 14% previously.

“Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

It appears home sales front-ran the rise in mortgage rates since the war began.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 10:09

Congress Returns From Recess - Here's What's On Its To-Do List

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Lawmakers will return to Capitol Hill this week with a long to-do list as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains in a partial shutdown.

Ending that shutdown—which as of April 13 reached its 58th day—will be a top priority for lawmakers, even as they remain divided along party lines on how to move forward with the funding.

Lawmakers will also work on reauthorizing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), a controversial surveillance law that includes the collection of American citizens’ personal data which is set to expire on April 20.

They'll also consider a budget request from the White House raising the Pentagon’s budget to $1.5 trillion—by far the largest military budget ever requested.

Here’s what to know.

DHS Funding

Congress’s No. 1 priority will be to find a way forward as DHS remains shut down—though at present, a compromise still seems distant as the two chambers remain at odds on how to move forward.

Democrats have demanded significant reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and parts of Customs and Border Patrol (CBP)—both subsidiaries of DHS—in exchange for supporting new funding for the department. They have tied these demands to the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Nicole Renée Good in Minneapolis during altercations with immigration enforcement agents.

Republicans have rejected parts of these demands, particularly a proposed prohibition on agents wearing masks while in the field, citing the need to protect officers from being doxed by activists.

Some House Republicans have also pushed for the passage of the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, a voting bill, as a condition of any reforms to ICE and CBP. However, Senate Democrats have consistently opposed the bill, which doesn’t seem to have a clear path forward in Congress.

Before leaving for the spring recess, the Senate passed a bill that would have fully funded DHS with the exception of ICE and CBP, whose immigration enforcement operations have already been funded through September 2029 by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rejected this deal as a “joke.” Instead, the House passed a 60-day stopgap that would have fully funded DHS. That bill has been rejected by Senate Democrats for its lack of reforms.

Ahead of Congress’s recess, President Donald Trump signed an executive order granting full pay to agents of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), whose increasing employee absences had led to record-breaking security queues at airports across the country.

FISA Section 702

Another top priority for lawmakers will be passing a reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA, a surveillance law that’s due to expire on April 20.

On March 25, Trump—a former critic of Section 702—requested that Congress pass a “clean” reauthorization of the law.

“I have called for a clean 18-month extension,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Section 702 targets intelligence from foreign nationals thought to be outside the United States. Yet, it also enables intelligence agencies to gather “incidental” information from Americans who are in contact with targeted non-U.S. persons—all without a warrant.

Although intelligence officials must obtain a warrant to access Americans’ data directly, Section 702 has long caused bipartisan discomfort on Capitol Hill and beyond.

Previously, Congress had approved a two-year extension of the program with 56 major reforms designed primarily to prevent misuse of Americans’ data by agents with access to Section 702 data. It was signed into law by former President Joe Biden in April 2024.

Trump acknowledged his previous opposition to—and run-ins with—Section 702.

Nevertheless, Trump said, “When used properly, FISA is an effective tool to keep Americans safe.”

Trump’s $1.5 Billion Pentagon Budget Request

Another top issue for lawmakers this week will be Trump’s request for a $1.5 trillion military budget—the largest increase in military spending since World War 2.

In the April 3 budget proposal, the White House formally requested the historic Pentagon budget increase, though the amount had been floated by Trump for weeks.

The proposal suggests that this amount could be passed through a two-track process.

The bulk of the funding, $1.1 trillion, would be passed through the normal appropriations process. This amount could likely pass easily, as it’s aligned with the gradual increases seen over recent years.

The second track in the White House proposal would come through a $350 billion reconciliation package—allowing Republicans to bypass a filibuster from Senate Democrats entirely.

It would fund this in part, the proposal states, through a $73 billion reduction in non-defense spending,

White House Office of Management and the Budget Director Russ Vought is scheduled to testify before the House Budget Committee on April 15, and to testify before its Senate counterpart on April 16.

Iran War

While the U.S. and Iran are currently in a ceasefire, signs of its fragility are already becoming clear—meaning that the issue will be a key focus for lawmakers this week.

On Friday, peace talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, fell apart after Iran refused U.S. demands to dismantle its nuclear program. The United States demanded as well that Iran turn over its supply of enriched uranium.

After the peace talks failed, Trump stated that, beginning at 10 a.m. ET on Monday, the U.S. will set up a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S. ships have already begun sweeping the area for Iranian mines.

Meanwhile, Democrats—with the support of some Republicans—have vowed to take action under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which curbs a president’s power to wage war without explicit congressional approval.

Before the break, a bid by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to take action under the War Powers Resolution via unanimous consent was blocked by Republicans. However, Jeffries has vowed to force another vote on the issue this week.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has also stated that Senate Democrats will attempt to force a vote on the matter this week.

“Congress must reassert its authority” over war-making powers, Schumer said at a news conference on April 8.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) have consistently backed action under the War Powers Resolution related to the Iran conflict, citing Congress’s constitutional role in declaring wars.

Meanwhile, a contingent of Republican lawmakers in both chambers—including Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah)—have stated that they will throw their support behind such a measure if hostilities continue after the statutory 60-day window laid out in the War Powers Resolution.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 09:35

Goldman Stock Slides After FICC Unexpectedly Misses Despite Highest Overall Profit In 5 Years

Goldman Sachs reported its highest quarterly profit in five years, as the bank's equities traders beat their own previous all-time quarterly high revenue by more than $1 billion thanks to a surge in market volatility due to the war in Iran; however this stellar performance in equities was offset by an unexpected drop in FICC revenues. Here are Goldman's Q1 results in a nutshell:

• EPS $17.55, exp. $16.41
• Net revenue $17.23 billion, +14% y/y, exp. $16.95 billion
  • Equities sales & trading revenue $5.33 billion, estimate $4.9 billion
  • FICC sales & trading revenue $4.01 billion, estimate $4.87 billion
  • Net interest income $3.56 billion, +23% y/y, estimate $3.52 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Global Banking & Markets net revenues $12.74 billion, +19% y/y, estimate $12.5 billion
  • Investment banking revenue $2.84 billion
  • Advisory revenue $1.49 billion, +89% y/y, estimate $1.27 billion
  • Equity underwriting rev. $535 million, +45% y/y, estimate $478.4 million
  • Debt underwriting rev. $811 million, +7.8% y/y, estimate $771.7 million
• Total deposits $561 billion, +12% q/q
• Provision for credit losses $315 million, +9.8% y/y
• Total operating expenses $10.43 billion, +14% y/y, estimate $10.35 billion
  • Compensation expenses $5.41 billion, +11% y/y, estimate $5.51 billion

The Wall Street bank reported first-quarter net income of $5.6bn, up 19% from a year ago and better than the $5.3BN median analyst consensus. 

Goldman’s chief executive David Solomon said the “geopolitical landscape remains very complex”.

Goldman’s equities traders delivered revenues of $5.33BN, up 27% YoY, and ahead of the $4.9BN expected; This was the highest three-month haul by any bank in history, and was also more than $1 billion higher than the $4.31 billion record set in the fourth quarter of last year as Goldman benefited from wild market swings triggered by a string of geopolitical shocks. The equities boom was also driven by a surge in equities financing, which includes lending to large hedge fund clients and other speculative investors. It also came despite the abrupt departure of one of its co-heads, Erdit Hoxha, to hedge fund Millennium Management.

New regulation in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis pushed banks such as Goldman to eliminate their prop trading operations and focus more on facilitating and financing trades for other investors. These businesses benefit when markets are volatile, such as in the first quarter when there was frantic trading around the US military  operation in Venezuela and the conflict in the Middle East, which triggered a sharp increase in oil prices. 

On the other hand, FICC (Fixed-income, currency and commodities) traders badly missed expectations, posting $4.01 billion in revenue, a 10% drop YoY, and more than $800 million below the consensus of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Goldman blamed "significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenue in credit profuts" for the decline. It said this was partially offset by commodities and currencies trading.

Investment bankers’ advisory fees were $1.5 billion, 89% higher than the same period last year, beating expectations across the board and reflecting a rebound in merger activity. Total Investment Banking fees for the unit hit $2.84 billion in the quarter. Goldman said that the increase in investment banking fees “primarily due to significantly higher net revenues in Advisory, reflecting a significant increase in completed mergers and acquisitions volumes.” The bank also warned investors that its backlog of fees decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter. 

Even with the decline in revenues in its fixed-income unit, it was the third-best quarter for Goldman’s trading business in its history. 

The bank also said revenues at its asset and wealth management division increased 10 per cent to $4.1bn. These money management businesses are central to Goldman’s efforts to make earnings less reliant on the cyclical businesses of investment banking and trading. 

In the asset-management division, the company said assets under supervision rose to $3.7 trillion and net revenue increased compared to the same period last year. Earlier in April, Goldman said one of its private credit funds narrowly escaped a broader exodus of investors.

The bank’s own former chief executive officer, Lloyd Blankfein, warned earlier this year that private markets — on which Goldman has staked much of its future growth strategy — face a “fire” risk from possible excessive valuations. 

Goldman, which was first of the top investment banks to report results this week, has one of the largest markets divisions on Wall Street. Such businesses benefit from a surge in volatility, which has been driven by the war in Iran, as well as concerns around artificial intelligence and private credit.

While Goldman's total geadcount was essentially unchanged compared with the end of 2025, in the first quarter, Goldman promoted seven more partners to its top management committee and hiked pay for its most senior executives, while also announcing the departure of its top lawyer due to her relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.

Despite the blowout overall results, the unexpected drop and miss in FICC was enough to spook investors, and send the stock more than 4% lower in premarket trading.

Goldman's Q1 earnings presentation is below (pdf link)

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 09:18

PJM Targets 15 Gigawatts Of New Power To Feed Data Center Boom

PJM Interconnection, operator of the largest power grid in the United States spanning 13 states and serving more than 65 million people, has launched an emergency proposal to secure 15 gigawatts of new electricity supply, according to Bloomberg. The move aims squarely at the surging AI data center demand, which has pushed the regional grid to its limits. The plan calls for bilateral negotiations to pair proposed data centers with new power plants.

PJM will begin gauging interest from developers and generators late next week, with the formal matching process running from September 2026 through March 2027. The grid operator described the initiative as a targeted response to potential shortages driven by the AI boom, which has accelerated load growth far beyond earlier forecasts.

We've been highlighting the growing strain on national grids like PJM for years now. Data centers are the dominant forces reshaping regional power markets, contributing heavily to capacity costs in recent auctions and forcing operators to scramble during winter peaks.

Spot power prices have already hit records above $1,000 per megawatt-hour…

US SPOT POWER PRICES REACH RECORD HIGH OVER $1,000 PER MWH AT PJM WEST HUB IN PENNSYLVANIA AND MARYLAND

we are about to have a very shrill discussion about data center power use

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 27, 2026

Explosive demand from hyperscalers' facilities in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and surrounding states continues to outpace new generation additions With shortfalls of 60 GW over the next decade.

*PJM SEES POTENTIAL 60GW POWER SUPPLY SHORTFALL OVER NEXT DECADE

This means all batshit insane capex spending plans will be scrapped since there is not enough juice to power the DCs https://t.co/tL14BClKfz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 6, 2026

The timing of this emergency proposal, however, adds a layer of absurdity. Just weeks ago, PJM informed Constellation Energy that transmission project delays could push full grid deliverability for the restarted Crane Clean Energy Center, formerly Three Mile Island Unit 1, out to 2031. That is four years later than Constellation’s target of late 2027 for the roughly 800 MW nuclear plant, even as the facility itself nears readiness. Constellation is now seeking FERC waivers to speed things up.

PJM is scrambling for 15 GW of new capacity while delaying the bolting on of energy sources that are nearly ready to go? We're not exactly sure what the 4D-chess strategy is here.

The 15 GW target represents a significant slice of capacity roughly equivalent to over a dozen large nuclear or gas-fired plants coming online in short order. Whether developers will step up with firm commitments remains to be seen.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/13/2026 - 05:45

Washington, D.C. Will Feel Like June. Cue MSM Climate Doom Propaganda

After a stretch of roller-coaster temperature swings across the Mid-Atlantic in March and early April, the midpoint of the month is now shaping up to be unusually warm, with highs that could exceed the region's average for June. That kind of temperature anomaly could prompt left-wing corporate media outlets to kick off their seasonal global-warming doom news cycle as summer approaches.

"Temperatures will soar well into the 80s just a week later, and on Thursday, it will be near 90 degrees. That's more like June or July," meteorologist Ben Noll wrote in a weather note titled "Hello...summer?" while referring to the U.S. East Coast.

Noll continued, "That's the type of variability that spring is known for, but a 70-degree temperature swing is more like whiplash. It will feel like summer up and down the East Coast this week as a big ridge of high-pressure flexes its muscles and sends sultry air northward."

However, he noted, "It won't last. Much cooler air from Canada will sweep in late next weekend or to start the week of April 20."

The latest data from Bloomberg shows highs in the Washington, DC area will trend near the 90s this week into Saturday, but expect a sharp drop in high temperatures late next weekend.

Average temperatures across the Capital Beltway will hover near 80F this coming week, well above the 30-year norm of around 57°F.

Like clockwork, the left-wing corporate media propaganda machine during the Biden-Harris regime years used global-warming headlines to mislead the public about an imaginary climate crisis so that green policies could get passed and climate NGOs could get funded - all to loot US taxpayers.

With President Trump back in power, left-wing MSM outlets dialed back the climate-fear propaganda in 2025.

The big question now is whether MSM will reactivate their climate crisis megaphone as the week's unusual warmth spreads across the U.S. East.

There's a war on your mind. 

Related:

• Meteorologists Warn About Super El Nino Event

Don't count on Greta to comment on climate; she's moved on to all things Palestine (probably because there is more activist money there).

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 23:15