"Geographic Rotation Is Striking": Home Prices Are Falling In A Majority Of US Cities

US home prices in the 20 largest cities rose 0.13% MoM in September (very slightly better than the 0.1% rise expected) and up for the second month in a row (after falling for five straight months before). This MoM rise left the average priers up just 1.36% YoY - the lowest since July 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

This (admittedly lagged and smoothed) data fits with the recent trend from Zillow that homes have lost value...

“As of October 2025, 53 percent of homes have lost value over the past year as measured by their Zestimate,” said Zillow.

“This share has climbed from only 16 percent just a year ago. This is on the highest share of homes declining in value since April 2012, when the housing crash was starting to bottom out.”

But of course, the Case Shiller data is actual sales, Zillow is an 'estimate' of value - not a transaction.

Declining mortgage rates suggest a rebound in aggregate prices could be looming...

Regional performance reveals a tale of two markets.

Chicago continues to lead with a 5.5% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. These Northeastern and Midwestern metros have sustained momentum even as broader market conditions soften.

At the opposite extreme, Tampa posted a 4.1% annual decline - the sharpest drop among tracked metros and its 11th consecutive month of negative annual returns. Phoenix (-2.0%), Dallas (-1.3%), and Miami (-1.3%) likewise remained in negative territory, highlighting particular weakness in Sun Belt markets that experienced the most dramatic pandemic-era price surges.

Home Prices are now falling (YoY) in a majority (11/20) of America's largest cities...

“The geographic rotation is striking," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"Markets that were pandemic darlings—particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas—are now experiencing outright price declines.

Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to prepandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics."

For context, this represents the weakest annual price growth since early 2023, when the market was absorbing the initial shock of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle.

“Yet unlike that period, which saw a quick rebound," says Godec, "current conditions suggest more persistent headwinds. With mortgage rates stubbornly elevated and affordability at multi-decade lows, the market appears to be settling into a new equilibrium of minimal price growth—or, in some regions, outright decline.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 09:12

Amazon Announces $50B Plan For Dedicated Government AI Supercomputing

Amazon Web Services is making a major push into government-focused artificial intelligence and supercomputing, announcing plans to build the first AI- and HPC-dedicated cloud infrastructure designed specifically for U.S. federal agencies, according to Amazon's PR.

The company said it will invest up to $50 billion beginning in 2026 to expand capacity across AWS Top Secret, AWS Secret, and AWS GovCloud (US), adding nearly 1.3 gigawatts of advanced compute power.

The expansion will give agencies access to a broader suite of AI tools—such as Amazon SageMaker, Amazon Bedrock, Amazon Nova, Anthropic Claude, leading open-weights models, AWS Trainium chips, and NVIDIA AI systems—while providing classified and unclassified environments for model training, simulation, and mission-critical workloads.

Amazon wrote that the investment will help agencies apply AI to large-scale modeling and simulation, enabling “autonomous experimental steering and real-time feedback loops” and shrinking processes that once took weeks down to hours.

The company highlights applications ranging from analyzing global security data to automating threat detection across satellite imagery and sensor streams. The expanded infrastructure is also positioned to accelerate research in fields like energy, healthcare, cybersecurity, and autonomous systems.

"Our investment in purpose-built government AI and cloud infrastructure will fundamentally transform how federal agencies leverage supercomputing,” said AWS CEO Matt Garman. “We're giving agencies expanded access to advanced AI capabilities that will enable them to accelerate critical missions from cybersecurity to drug discovery. This investment removes the technology barriers that have held government back and further positions America to lead in the AI era."

AWS frames the move as aligned with the Administration’s AI Action Plan and as part of a broader shift from traditional supercomputing to AI-accelerated workflows, where natural-language interfaces and AI agents help researchers explore complex problems.

The announcement also builds on more than a decade of government-focused cloud development, including milestones such as the launch of AWS GovCloud in 2011, the first air-gapped commercial cloud for classified workloads in 2014, and full accreditation across all U.S. classification levels by 2017.

With more than 11,000 government customers already on AWS, the company says the new investment is meant to provide secure, scalable infrastructure for a new era of computational discovery—one in which AI and HPC converge to support national security, scientific innovation, and the broader U.S. industrial base.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 09:05

Stock Rally Falters As Nvidia-Google AI Rivalry Intensifies

US futures are flat, having rebounded from session lows, even as Nvidia shares fell 3.8% in premarket trading as investors assess the threat of increased competition after a report that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s TPU-based AI chips (see "The Google TPU: The Chip Made For The AI Inference Era"); Alphabet shares climb 3.2% in premarket. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures are unchanged after posting the biggest daily gain since Oct 13, while Nasdaq 100 contracts drop 0.1%. The prospect of a market shake-up rippled across other tech companies. AMD slipped more than 3%, while Japan's SoftBank Group shares tumbled 10% on concern that Alphabet’s Gemini model could boost competition for OpenAI, a key SoftBank investment. Treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields down 1bp to 4.01%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% while the yen leads gains against the greenback, rising 0.4%. The pound adds 0.2% ahead of the budget on Wednesday. WTI crude futures fall 0.3% to $58.70 a barrel. Spot gold is flat near $4,134/oz. Bitcoin falls 2% to near $87,000. Today's econ data includes ADP weekly employment estimate (8:15am), September retail sales and PPI (8:30am), September FHFA house price index, 3Q house price purchase index and September S&P Cotality home prices (9am), August business inventories, November Richmond Fed manufacturing index, November consumer confidence, and October pending home sales (10am) and November Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Alphabet (GOOGL) rises 4% as the search giant inches closer to a market value of $4 trillion. Nvidia (NVDA) drops 3.6% on a report that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, suggesting the internet search leader is making headway in efforts to rival the industry’s bestselling AI accelerator (Tesla -0.1%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta +0.6%, Microsoft -0.8%, Apple -0.7%)

• Alibaba Group ADRs (BABA) gains 2% after the company posted better-than-projected growth in its pivotal cloud business, highlighting the enormous demand for computing during China’s AI boom.
• Amentum Holdings (AMTM) rises 11% after the IT services firm posted fiscal fourth-quarter pro forma revenue that grew 10% from the year-earlier period and beat estimates.
• Brinker International (EAT) rises 2% after Citi analyst Jon Tower upgraded the operator of Chili’s and Maggiano’s restaurant chains to buy.
• Burlington Stores (BURL) falls 5% after the off-price retailer’s comparable sales for the third quarter fell short of the consensus estimate. Burlington’s fourth-quarter and full-year forecasts for the metric are also underwhelming compared with the Street projections. .
• Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS) drops 8% after posting quarterly results.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) rises 11% after the energy storage company forecast 2026 total revenue that beat the average analyst estimate, and announced more data center deals in the pipeline.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS) rises 14% after the measurement instruments company gave a first-quarter forecast that was stronger than expected. It also reported positive fourth-quarter results. .
• Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) climbs 25% after raising its full-year outlook for the second straight quarter, a sign that Chief Executive Officer Michael Bender is helping to stabilize performance at the struggling retailer
• Sandisk (SNDK) climbs 3% after the computer hardware and storage company is selected to replace Interpublic Group of Companies in the S&P 500.
• Select Medical Holdings (SEM) jumps 10% after the operator of health-care facilities said it received a take-private proposal from Executive Chairman Robert A. Ortenzio to acquire all of the company’s outstanding shares.
• Spotify (SPOT) climbs 2% after the Financial Times reported that the company is preparing to raise US subscription prices in the first quarter of next year.
• Symbotic (SYM) rises 15% after the company gave first-quarter revenue forecast that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Zoom Communications (ZM) gains 5% after the video communications software company’s third-quarter results beat expectations. It also raised its full-year forecast.

In corporate news, Boeing is gaining ground in a “war against defects” at its 737 jet plant outside Seattle. Media mogul David Geffen is said set to reap more than $500 million in profit from the expected sale of Warner Bros. Discovery. Private equity firm PAG has made a big contrarian bet on China. Spotify is getting ready to increase subscription prices in the US in the first quarter of 2026, the FT reported. 

Some caution is returning to markets after indexes posted big gains on Monday. AI competition is heating up, with Nvidia dropping in premarket trading on a report that Meta is in talks to use Google’s AI chips. Escalating geopolitical tensions in Asia and Europe are also dampening the mood. The AI competition concerns and geopolitical tensions put a brake on the two-day bounce-back that was driven by rising Fed cut bets.

A report that Meta Platforms is in talks to use AI chips from Alphabet’s Google spurred investors to rethink bets on related companies, prompting volatile moves for tech stocks in Asia. Alphabet shares were up about 3% premarket. An agreement could see Meta use Google chips, known as TPUs, in data centers in 2027, The Information reported, which could help establish TPUs as an alternative to Nvidia chips. 

“Nvidia is the biggest position in my portfolio and I am not worried at all by a 3% dip,” said Fares Hendi, global fund manager at Prevoir Asset Management in Paris. “It’s healthy that in a functioning market economy Google goes into this market, it just shows its vast potential.”

In Japan, shares of tech giant SoftBank tumbled, hitting a 2 1/2-month low and down 40% from their record high just 3 weeks ago, on worries that the latest Gemini AI model from Alphabet may intensify competition for OpenAI — the Japanese conglomerate’s key investment. The stock sank as much as 11% on Tuesday, following a 10.9% dive in the previous session before Japan’s long weekend. The sharp back-to-back declines stand out even for SoftBank Group, whose shares are highly volatile. SoftBank's slump came even as many other AI-related Japanese stocks such as chip testing equipment maker Advantest Corp rose, tracking gains in global chip stocks which had soared during Japan’s long weekend.

“The stocks are hit by concerns that the competition environment of OpenAI will become tougher after Google’s Gemini 3 received strong reviews,” said Tsutomu Yamada, market analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ eSmart Securities Co.

The odds for further easing fluctuated in recent weeks, though climbed steadily after dovish remarks from some policymakers signaling support for the labor market. A lack of economic visibility due to the data blackout, along with widening divisions between Fed doves and hawks, have also kept traders guessing about the central bank’s next move.

“It’s really quite unique in the history of the Fed to have such a confrontation of hawkish and dovish narratives,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau Capital. “The lack of visibility on the Fed’s next move could be a big risk this year and for 2026 too.”

Traders are also watching US data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, including September retail sales and producer prices due later Tuesday. Though dated by the recent shutdown, the reports may still carry weight given the lack of fresh data before the Federal Reserve’s meeting next month. A number of September data releases are expected at 8:30 a.m. NY time, including retail sales and PPI, followed by consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November and pending home sales for October at 10 a.m.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.2%; chemicals, travel and consumer product shares are leading declines while miners outperform. Defense stocks rebound after Russia and Ukraine traded airstrikes overnight. Mining and telecom shares also outperform, while autos as well as travel and leisure sectors lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Kingfisher shares rise as much as 6.9% after the home-improvement retailer raised its full-year earnings guidance and reported third-quarter sales that were slightly ahead of estimates.
• ABN Amro  shares advance as much as 5.1%, the best performer in the banks sector, after the Dutch lender said it is planning to cut almost 20% of its workforce in a bid to boost profitability.
• Cranswick shares climb as much as 4.9% as analysts welcomed the meat supplier’s strong performance in the first half and said there is still upside to expectations for the second, despite guidance being reiterated today.
• Marston’s shares rise as much as 15% to the highest level since June 2022, after the pub operator reported results ahead of analysts’ estimates on Tuesday and said Christmas bookings are strong.
• Beazley shares fall as much as 13%, the most in more than five years, after the insurer’s third-quarter sales come in below analysts’ expectations.
• Fortum shares drop as much as 7%, the most since April, after the Finnish utility company gave an update to its long-term targets that didn’t include any mention of data center-related deals, disappointing analysts.
• Intertek shares fall as much as 5.5%, the most in more than three months, as the testing specialist’s organic growth between July and October misses forecasts.
• Carnival shares fall as much as 5.5% after Barclays analyst Brandt Montour wrote on Monday the cruise operator was striking a more “cautious” tone.
• Compass Group shares drop as much as 3.7% to their lowest level since April after the catering and support service company reported results that were slightly above consensus but lacked major catalysts.
• Thyssenkrupp Nucera shares slump as much as 11% after the green hydrogen electrolysis technology company gave guidance for 2026 which was significantly below expectations.

Asian stocks rose, as investors repositioned their bets in artificial intelligence after a report that Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to use chips from Alphabet Inc.’s Google. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, to the highest since Nov. 21. South Korea’s benchmark trimmed an earlier advance of as much as 2.6%, as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — both memory suppliers to Nvidia — pared gains. In Japan, a 10% decline in SoftBank Group — a key partner to OpenAI — weighed on the Topix, which closed lower. Optimism over Alphabet’s TPU AI chip expansion boosted shares of its Asian suppliers, as investors sought to take position in potential new winners in the AI sector. The move could threaten Nvidia Corp.’s dominance, with analysts expecting a more volatile trading ahead as traders recalibrate for the shifting competitive landscape. Trade relations will stay at the forefront going into next year, with US President Donald Trump agreeing to visit Beijing in April. Investors will also keep an eye on China-Japan relations as the row over Taiwan heats up.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%. The yen is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.4%. The pound adds 0.2% ahead of the budget on Wednesday.

In rates, treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields dip 1bps to 4.01%. Money markets are pricing in about a 75% chance of a Fed rate cut in December.

In commodities, oil fell sharply after ABC News reported that Ukraine agreed with the US on the terms of a potential peace deal with Russia, with only some minor detail to be sorted out, although subsequent reports from WaPo indicated that Russia will once again balk on the proposed deal. Spot gold is flat near $4,134/oz. Bitcoin falls 2% to near $87,000. 

To the day ahead now, US data releases include retail sales and PPI inflation for September, along with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for November. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Makhlouf, Sleijpen and Cipollone.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX -0.2%, CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.03%
• VIX +0.2 points at 20.67
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1224.89
• euro +0.2% at $1.154
• WTI crude -0.2% at $58.7/barrel

Top Overnight news

• The US and Ukraine have drafted a new 19 pt peace deal but left the most politically sensitive elements to be decided by the countries’ presidents, according to Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister. FT
• Allies of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have laid the groundwork for him to push a rate cut through a divided committee at next month’s meeting even though it could draw multiple dissents. The unusual level of division inside the Fed means that, to an even greater degree than usual, the final call rests with Powell. WSJ
• Donald Trump’s health care plan is in limbo after pushback from Republicans who were caught off guard by the president’s forthcoming proposal. Trump had been expected to unveil a new policy framework Monday afternoon, said two people familiar with the plan and granted anonymity to describe deliberations around it. Politico; US House Speaker Johnson reportedly cautioned the White House that most House Republicans are not in favour of extending enhanced ACA subsidies: WSJ 
• White House said Trump signed an executive order related to AI research, while the order will boost AI-accelerated innovation and directs the building of AI platforms to harness federal scientific data sets.
• Nvidia shares dropped premarket on a report that Meta is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips. Alphabet shares rose premarket, with the company’s AI ascent poised to shake up the rankings of the world’s most valuable companies (NVDA -345bps premkt, GOOG +393 bps premkt). BBG
• China instructed its airlines to reduce the number of flights to Japan through March 2026, people familiar said. Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi said Trump briefed her on his call yesterday with Xi Jinping. BBG
• SoftBank shares tumbled on worries that the latest Gemini AI model from Alphabet may intensify competition for OpenAI — the Japanese conglomerate’s key investment. BBG
• European car sales rose for a fourth month in October, driven by increases in Spain and Germany. The UK and Italy stagnated. BBG
• Mutual funds have increased their equity market exposure in recent months in a struggle to keep up with benchmarks. Only 29% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD, compared to an average of 37% since 2007. In response, funds have reduced their cash allocations to 1.2% of assets, a record low. Goldman
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she supports lowering interest rates at the central bank’s meeting next month because she sees a sudden deterioration in the job market as both more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up. WSJ
• Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said there are real use cases for AI, but not for crypto, and noted people are feeling hardship due to inflation.
• US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th: BEA.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the tech-led rally on Wall St, where sentiment was bolstered as dovish comments from Fed officials boosted December rate cut bets. ASX 200 finished higher but lagged for most the session as strength in mining names was negated by underperformance in the top-weighted financial industry and losses in defensives. Nikkei 225 initially rallied on return from the extended weekend and briefly reclaimed the 49,000 level, before momentarily wiping out its entire spoils. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by continued warming US-China relations following a call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, which Trump described as a very good call and noted that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. The PBoC also conducted a CNY 1tln MLF operation that resulted in a net liquidity injection of CNY 100bln.

Top Asian News

• PBoC conducted a CNY 1tln Medium-term Lending Facility operation for a CNY 100bln net liquidity injection.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said she spoke with US President Trump on the phone after a phone call was proposed by the US side, and that Trump explained recent US-China relations following his call with Chinese President Xi. Furthermore, Trump told her that they are very close friends and that she could call him any time, while Takaichi believes they were able to confirm close cooperation between Japan and the US.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan has established a Japanese equivalent of the US Department of Government Efficiency to abolish ineffective subsidies.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is to hold a cabinet meeting on the supplementary budget this Friday.
• Japanese PM Takaichi says the government is to spend JPY 1tln on SME wage hike support; asking cooperation for base pay gains above inflation.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened mixed, but have dipped off best levels in recent trade, to display a mostly negative picture in Europe. Nothing really behind the latest dip in sentiment, but did come alongside some pre-market pressure in NVIDIA as traders continue to digest Meta/Google related newsflow (detailed in the third bullet). European sectors are mixed. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, continuing the sectoral strength seen in APAC trade, whilst Travel & Leisure is found towards the foot of the pile. For the latter, easyJet did initially see strength after its FY results, but dipped as markets digested rising costs. Also pressuring the sector is Evolution (-2.2%), which is dragged lower by a broker downgrade at Jefferies; analysts cited uncertainty re. potential litigation battle with Playtech.

Top European News

• UK Treasury asked banks to make public and prominent endorsements of the Budget this week, wanting lenders to praise new policies and show how they will boost lending to first-time buyers and small businesses, according to FT.
• French PM Lecornu has scheduled a debate on Wednesday, 10th December on defense and resources, via Politico citing sources. A second debate will be held on December 15th.
• French Socialist (PS) Leader Faure says he sees the budget as possible

FX

• DXY resides towards the bottom end of a 100.01-100.26 range this morning, which is just inside Friday's 99.99-100.40 range. Upside is capped as rate cut bets were boosted following dovish rhetoric from Fed officials. From a more macro lens, attention is also on the Ukraine peace plan, which the Washington Post reported was now a 19-point plan, down from 28, with talks expected to continue. Elsewhere, it was announced that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi held a phone call that was said to be productive, in which leaders discussed many topics, including trade. The US schedule is heavy: weekly ADP average jobs data for the four weeks to 8th November are set for release (last week, the average rate of additions improved to -2.5k). US September PPI is seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. -0.1%).
• EUR/USD is a little firmer today and trades within 1.1512 to 1.1540 range. Really not much to talk about from a European specific standpoint today, aside from German GDP (Q3) which was unrevised. Upside today comes in the context of a softer USD and optimism surrounding peace. Despite the optimism, there is still heightened uncertainty regarding the path to peace - as such the upside in the single currency has been relatively muted.
• JPY stands as the outperformer, recent weakness has spurred expectations of potential BoJ intervention, whilst wages are also on watch as Japanese PM Takaichi said the government is to spend JPY 1tln on SME wage hike support, and asking cooperation for base pay gains above inflation. This alongside the risk tone has helped to strengthen the JPY today. USD/JPY is currently at the bottom of a 156.15-156.98 range, dipping under Monday's 156.37 low, with Friday's trough at 156.20.
• Cable is a little firmer and trades above the 1.3100 mark in a 1.3096 to 1.3140 range; a peak which is roughly 4 pips above its 21-DMA. The Pound is largely moving at the whim of a slightly lower Dollar, but with price action contained into the Autumn Budget on Wednesday.
• AUD and NZD lower on broader risk whilst the latter looks ahead to a widely anticipated rate cut by the RBNZ at tomorrow's meeting (full Newsquawk RBNZ preview available on the Research Suite).

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat/slightly firmer. Initially moved lower soon after the European open, but then gradually edged off worst levels as global sentiment dipped. Nothing really behind the latest slip in the risk tone, but does come as NVIDIA (-3%) continues to sell off in the pre-market. Markets will remain focused on PPI, Retail Sales and ADP Weekly Prelim Estimate later today. USTs are currently trading within a 113-09+ to 113-15 range.
• Bunds are firmer by just over 10 ticks, and essentially following global peers. Currently towards the upper end of a 128.75 to 128.93 range, alongside the souring risk tone. Earlier, German GDP (Q3) which were unrevised, had little impact on German paper. Thereafter, German paper traded choppy into a 2030 Bobl Auction, which drew a better-than-prior b/c. No real move to the benchmark.
• Gilts opened flat, and then gained alongside peers. Currently towards the upper end of a 92.18 to 92.44 range, next level to the upside would be 92.46 which marks the 19th November peak. A relatively strong 2031 auction, which drew a b/c a touch above 3x, had little impact on Gilts.
• Netherlands sells EUR 1.445bln vs exp. EUR 1.0-2.0bln 3.50% 2056 DSL; Average yield 3.469%.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.125% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.01x, average yield 4.088%, tail 0.6bps.
• Italy sells EUR 2bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 2.10% 2027 BTP Short Term & EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 1.10% 2031, 2.40% 2039 BTPei.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent have pulled back from Monday's bid higher despite the absence of any clear drivers. After peaking at USD 59.06/bbl and USD 62.92/bbl respectively in the latter part of Monday's session, benchmarks have gradually pulled back and have formed a trough at USD 58.32/bbl and USD 62.14/bbl. This comes as the risk tone started on the back foot at the start of the European session. Currently, benchmarks have bounced off their session lows as the global risk tone improves.
• Spot XAU trades choppy following Monday's bid above USD 4100/oz on dovish Fed rhetoric. After peaking at USD 4156/oz in the early hours of the APAC session, XAU pulled back to a trough at USD 4110/oz before a slight rebound as the risk tone soars following downside in NVIDIA (NVDA) shares.
• 3M LME Copper gapped higher and drove from USD 10.80k/t to a peak of USD 10.89k/t at the start of the APAC session as it followed on from Monday's positive risk tone and the Trump-Xi meeting. As the European session got underway, the red metal has pared back some of its initial gains as the risk tone starts to weaken, but remains near USD 10.85k/t.
• An announcement on North Sea energy licenses is expected on Wednesday, to coincide with the Budget, via Politico citing sources; official cited says there is likely to be a "pragmatic" shift on policy.
• India's Russian oil imports set to drop as sanctions hit according to Reuters citing sources. Sanctions to cause sharp December drop in Russian oil imports and refiners seek options on tighter Western curbs, bank scrutiny. US, EU sanctions pressure India's refiners to cut Russia buys.
• Hong Kong net gold exports to China (Oct) 8.02MT vs prev. 22.047MT; total gold export to China 30.08MT vs prev. 36.275MT.
• Caspian Pipeline Consortium says Black Sea terminal temporarily suspended oil loadings amid drone attacks.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Taliban spokesman Mujahid said aerial raids took place in the provinces of Kunar and Paktika, which injured four civilians, while it was announced that nine children were killed after Pakistani forces bombed the home of a local resident in the Khost province.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US is holding secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi with US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll meeting delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in a push for a deal to end Russia's invasion, according to FT.
• A barrage of Russian missiles struck Kyiv overnight, in what the Ukrainian Energy Minister described as a "massive" attack on energy infrastructure, while the Kyiv Mayor said that some areas were experiencing disruptions to power and water.
• Regional Governor said three people were killed and 10 injured in a Ukrainian attack on Russia's Rostov region.
• Russia's Kremlin says that adjustments are being made to the published text of the Ukraine peace plan. Adds that it is impossible to discuss security system without participation of Europeans and at some stage this will be necessary and that Russia hasn't received adjusted US plans for Ukraine via RIA.

Geopolitics: Other

• Taiwan's Premier said Taiwan is a fully sovereign and independent country and that for Taiwan's 23mln people, a ‘return’ to China is not an option, while he added that maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is a development the whole world is watching closely. Furthermore, he said they must strengthen self-defence capabilities and must stand together with like-minded democratic countries. In relevant news, Taiwan's Defence Ministry said a Chinese balloon was detected in the Taiwan Strait on Monday.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan's UN ambassador sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Guterres explaining Japan's stance on China's demand to withdraw PM Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan, while Kihara added that China’s claims that contradict the facts cannot be accepted, and Japan must firmly refute and communicate its position. It was separately reported that Japan's top foreign ministry official held talks with China's ambassador, according to Kyodo
• China asks airlines to extend flight cuts to Japan till March 2026, via Bloomberg citing sources.
• Drone reported on Romanian territory, according to CGTN. Alerts for residents in several counties to hide were lifted. Currently, no drone signals are being detects by radars in Romanian airspace. Too early to say how many drones breached the airspace (CGTN)

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Sep Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: Sep Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
• 8:30 am: Sep PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
• 8:30 am: Sep PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.6%
• 8:30 am: Sep PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.8%
• 9:00 am: Sep FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
• 9:00 am: 3Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 0%
• 9:00 am: Sep S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 1.4%, prior 1.58%
• 9:00 am: Sep S&P Cotality CS U.S. HPI YoY NSA, prior 1.51%
• 10:00 am: Aug Business Inventories, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Nov Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -5, prior -4
• 10:00 am: Nov Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 93.3, prior 94.6
• 10:00 am: Oct Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday we published our 2026 World Outlook, with this year’s edition called “Anything but dull”. You can read the full report here. Following another year of huge surprises, the title reflects how we expect 2026 to see no let-up in volatility, even as our economists and strategists remain broadly positive. We’ve seen a huge wave of AI investments that offer the prospect of meaningful productivity gains over time but the debate will rage on beyond 2026 as to how tech companies will monetise this and it’s unlikely that debate will be concluded next year so there’s plenty of opportunity for wild sentiment swings. However our US equity strategist Binky Chadha has an S&P 500 target of 8,000 for year-end 2026. While many of us will have our doubts, Binky’s strong track record over the last decade or so means it’s hard to ignore.   

In terms of the global growth picture, our economists expect that the overall pace will echo 2024 and 2025, but the source of that growth will shift. So, the US will re-accelerate as trade uncertainty fades and tax cuts support household incomes. Germany should have a meaningful rebound thanks to the fiscal stimulus. But China’s growth is set to moderate as “anti-involution” reforms reshape supply-side behaviour. Then on inflation, it’s likely to keep normalising, but not fully back to pre-pandemic norms. So that’ll keep the major central banks cautious, with the Fed only delivering two more cuts before pausing, while the ECB is expected to stay on hold until a hike in mid-2027.

On rates, our team expects the 10yr Treasury moving up to 4.5% by end-2026, with 10yr bund yields reaching 3.10%. And for FX, our team expects further dollar weakness, with EUR/USD at 1.25 by year-end 2026. See the report for sections on all the major asset classes and economies for 2026 and beyond.  

In terms of the here and now, markets continued to rebound yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+1.55%) posting its best day in six weeks. In fact, the 2-day gain for the S&P now stands at +2.54%, which is its biggest bounce since the US and China slashed tariffs by 115 points back in May. In large part, that was thanks to growing anticipation of another Fed rate cut in two weeks’ time. But there was also support from a rebound in tech optimism as well as headlines pointing to progress on the Ukraine peace talks. So collectively, that backdrop meant we saw higher equities, tighter credit spreads, and a rally for most sovereign bonds too.  

When it comes to those peace talks, there were several stories of note over the last 24 hours. First, President Trump suggested yesterday that progress was being made with the talks, saying in a post that “something good just may be happening.” Then later on, Chinese state media said that President Xi had a phone call with President Trump, which added to the sense that something could be moving behind the scenes. Separately, the FT and Washington Post reported that the US and Ukraine have slimmed down the 28-point plan to 19 points. The slimmed down plan apparently leaves out some of the most “sensitive questions”, notably territory, to be discussed by Trump and Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy directly. In terms of the market reaction, the clearest impact was among Ukraine’s dollar bonds, where the 10yr yield (-59.1bps) fell to its lowest since August, at 14.25%. However, European defence stocks that had benefited from the prospect of higher military spending struggled, with Rheinmetall down -5.03%, whilst the STOXX Aerospace & Defense index fell -2.31%. In some ways an unsatisfactory deal might actually increase the need for Europe to speed up defence spending so one to watch.  

As all that was going on, markets got further support from the Fed, with growing confidence that they would in fact cut rates in December after all, particularly after the comments from NY Fed President Williams on Friday. So yesterday, Governor Waller said on Fox Business that he was “advocating for a rate cut at the next meeting”. And San Francisco Fed President Daly (non-voter) also supported a December cut in a Wall Street Journal interview, seeing the labour market as “vulnerable enough now that the risk is it'll have a nonlinear change”. The one US data release from yesterday surprised on the downside, with the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index down to a 5-month low of -10.4 in November (vs. -2.0 expected). So investors dialled up the likelihood of a December rate cut to 77%, up from 63% at the close on Friday and down at 29% last Wednesday. Today we have the shutdown delayed September US retail sales and PPI to give us and the Fed more intelligence, albeit quite backward-looking info now.  

The increased Fed cut probabilities backdrop proved supportive across multiple asset classes, with equities picking up on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 (+1.55%) rebounded, largely thanks to the best performance for the Magnificent 7 (+3.55%) since May. However, the breadth of gains was fairly narrow, with 49% of S&P 500 constituents lower on the day, led by declines for consumer staples (-1.32%). Cruise operator Carnival (-6.78%) was the weakest performer in the S&P, adding to lingering questions on the strength of the US consumer. Over in Europe, the gains were also more subdued, with the STOXX 600 (+0.14%) only posting a modest gain. Overnight Nvidia fell around -2.7% after a report suggesting that Meta is in talks to buy Google's AI chips for data centres in 2027 and for rent in 2026. Alphabet shares have risen +2.7% overnight after rising +6.31% yesterday with increasingly positive reviews for its Gemini 3 launch. There are lots of questions as to whether it will squeeze OpenAI so maybe the AI story is showing signs of moving on a little from all winners to a winners and losers narrative.  

Back to yesterday and for fixed income, sovereign bonds mostly rallied on both sides of the Atlantic. So the 10yr Treasury yield (-3.9bps) fell to 4.03%. Over in Europe, there were slightly smaller declines for 10yr bunds (-1.1bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps). However, in Germany, sentiment took a modest dent from the Ifo’s latest business climate indicator, which unexpectedly fell to 88.1 in November (vs. 88.5 expected). And over in the UK, gilts were a relative underperformer ahead of tomorrow’s Budget, with 10yr yields only down -0.8bps on the day. Overnight US yields are back up 1 to 1.5bps across the curve.   

The improving tech mood helped drive a rebound for Bitcoin, which rose +4.28% from Friday’s close to $88,763 yesterday. Still, the cryptocurrency remains on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022, having lost nearly -20% since the start of the month. For those interested in the topic, Marion Laboure on my team has written a note on what’s driven the latest decline (link here).

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with Chinese stocks outperforming in the region after President Donald Trump and Premier Xi Jinping held their first talks since agreeing to a tariff truce last month even though both skipped this weekend’s G-20 summit (details below). As I check my screens, the CSI (+0.97%) is leading gains followed by the Shanghai Composite (+0.89%) while the Hang Seng (+0.56%) is also advancing amid gains in local internet giants with Alibaba Group up over +2% before its quarterly earnings due later today. Japanese stocks are lagging their peers with the Nikkei flat after a long holiday weekend amid persistent concerns over the country’s fiscal health, especially as PM Sanae Takaichi’s government prepares to ramp up spending. 10yr JGB yields are +2.4bps. The KOSPI (+0.31%) is seeing some wild swings, having jumped +2.39% at the open before moving all the way back to negative territory as I started typing. S&P 500 (-0.02%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.03%) futures are trading flat after the Nvidia/Alphabet/Meta news mentioned above.

Coming back to the Trump-Xi meeting, the two leaders discussed several major issues between their nations, including Taiwan, the Ukraine war, and lackluster Chinese purchases of American soybeans. President Trump’s statement confirmed that he will visit China in April, and that Premier Xi will visit Washington later in 2026.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include retail sales and PPI inflation for September, along with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for November. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Makhlouf, Sleijpen and Cipollone.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 08:55

Core Producer Price Inflation Slowest In 15 Months, But...

Headline Producer Prices rose 0.3% MoM in September (as expected)

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Energy costs were the biggest driver (see below for why that may not be a problem) and Construction saw the smallest rise in prices...

Source: Bloomberg

Core PPI (Ex Food & Energy) rose just 0.1% MoM, bringing Core PPI YoY down to +2.6%...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest YoY print for Core PPI since July 2024.

However, there could be trouble ahead as the pipeline for prices (intermediate demand) is starting to accelerate once again...

Source: Bloomberg

But, there is a silver lining as oil prices have plunged since this data suggesting PPI Final Demand Energy will be dramatically deflating in the coming months...

Source: Bloomberg

So that's 3 of 3 macro data points this morning that 'support' doves at The Fed - lower employment, weaker retail sales, and lower inflation - and rate-cut odds are rising.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 08:53

Burlington Shares Slide After Store Traffic "Fell Off Significantly" 

Off-price department store retailer Burlington, formerly known as Burlington Coat Factory, fell in premarket trading after reporting weak third-quarter comparable sales and issuing soft fourth-quarter and full-year comp guidance that missed Bloomberg Consensus expectations.

Snapshot: Q3 Results (Slight Miss on Revenue/Comps)

• Adjusted EPS: $1.68 (beat) vs. $1.55 y/y

• Revenue: $2.71B (+7.1% y/y), just below Bloomberg Consensus ($2.72B)

• Comp sales: +1% (Estimate: +2.5%)

• Gross margin: 44.2% (up from 43.9%)

• SG&A: 35% of revenue (improvement vs. 35.4%)

• Merchandise inventories: $1.66B, up 15% y/y (well above BBG estimate of $1.51B)

"Total sales increased 7% in the third quarter, while comparable store sales increased 1%. Traffic to our stores fell off significantly after the back-to-school period driven by unseasonably warm temperatures in our major markets. Our comp trend then picked up to mid-single-digits in mid-October once the weather cooled, and that strong trend has continued through the first three weeks of November," CEO Michael O'Sullivan wrote in a statement. 

Burlington's fourth-quarter and full-year forecasts were also underwhelming compared with Bloomberg Consensus expectations. Shares are down 5% in premarket trading.

Snapshot: Q4 Outlook (Soft vs. Street)

• Comp sales: 0% to +2% (Estimate: +2.1%) Adjusted

• EPS: $4.50–$4.70 (Estimate: $4.62) Sales growth: +7% to +9%

Snapshot: 2026 Outlook (Mixed - EPS Raised, Comps Still Light)

• Adjusted EPS: $9.69–$9.89, raised (Estimate: $9.56) Sales: +8% (prior +7–8%)

• Comps: +1% to +2% (Estimate +2.46%) Net capex: ≈$950M

According to company filings, Burlington's core customer has an annual household income of $25,000 to $100,000 and is typically between 25 and 49 years old.

It's important to note that consumers more broadly, especially in the low- to mid-income tiers, are under financial pressure and increasingly value-oriented. This has been confirmed in recent earnings from Target, Home Depot, Walmart, and TJ Maxx.

The question becomes whether Burlington's customers are dialing back on spending on apparel, footwear, and coats, not because of seasonal trends, but because their pocketbooks are being squeezed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 08:45

US Retail Sales Disappoint In September

After two months of nothing, the avalanche of actual government-supplied macro data begins in earnest with Retail Sales (for September). BofA's omniscient analysts expected a small beat...

Retail sales should be a slight beat based on BofA real-time card spending dataa pic.twitter.com/amrOxXgiqU

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 25, 2025

But, for once, they were off with headline sales rising just 0.2% MoM (+0.4% MoM exp) but still rising for the 4th straight month...

Source: Bloomberg

On an unadjusted basis, Retail Sales fell significantly MoM (but that appears to be a very seasonal factor)...

Excluding Autos, sales were up 0.3% MoM (in line with expectations) but Ex Autos and Gas it was a disappointment, rising just 0.1% MoM (+0.3% exp).

Motor Vehicles and Nonstore Retailers saw sales drop the most while Gasoline Stations and Food Services & Drinking sales rose the most...

Perhaps worst of all is the 0.1% MoM decline in the Control Group - which is used in the GDP calculation - considerably worse than the +0.3% MoM expectation...

Source: Bloomberg

Control Group Sales are still up 4.1% YoY however.

Finally, we note that 'real' retail sales are higher YoY for the 12th straight month...

More bad news to support Fed rate-cuts?

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 08:38

ADP Weekly Employment Report Signals Weakening Labor Market In November

For the four weeks ending Nov. 8, 2025, ADP reports that private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs a week, considerably worse than than the last couple of weeks.

That is the worst 'monthly' average since August

"Consumer strength remains in question as we enter the holiday hiring season," says Nela Richardson of ADP, adding that "might be playing into delayed or curtailed job creation."

This is certainly not good news, but it does shift the dove/hawk argument at The Fed to pro-cut side and we see odds rise for December...

Is this bad news good enough to support the Santa Claus Rally?

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 08:26

Why Did Democrats Suddenly Go Quiet On Epstein Files?

Why did Democrats suddenly go quiet on the Epstein files?

Democrats whipped themselves into a frenzy trying to manufacture a "gotcha" moment for President Trump and the GOP over the Epstein files.

According to Bloomberg data, the headline count in MSM for "Epstein" erupted on the day when President Trump signed a spending bill to reopen the federal government after Democrats caved. This was nothing more than a headline deflection by Democrats.

But in recent days, the Epstein story count in MSM has fallen off a cliff. You don't hear much from the Democrats who chanted "release the files" every day ... 

That's because the Democrats' ongoing information war to delegitimize the president backfired, and the unhinged left fell silent once their colleagues' coordination with Epstein, Democrat fundraisers, and other politically displeasing headlines started emerging.

• Epstein Backfire Intensifies: He Was Live-Texting With House Democrat During 2019 'Get Trump' Hearing

• Democrats' Epstein Email Dump Backfires As Trump Sets DoJ On Clinton, Summers, Hoffman, Et Al.

• $1.2 Billion Suspicious Epstein Transactions? Wyden Demands Investigation After JP Morgan Failed To Report For Years

• Democrat Plaskett Digs Deeper Grave On Epstein Ties

Democrats did get the headlines they wanted:

• Jasmine Crockett Shares List Of Republicans Who Took Money From Epstein - Only Problem - It Was A Different Epstein!

And a recent Politico report cited a White House official who stated, "The Democrats are going to come to regret this." 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 07:45

The Decline Of Developed Nations' Fiat Money

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Governments assume they can print as much currency as they like and it will be accepted by force. However, the history of fiat currencies is always the same: first governments exceed their credit limits, then ignore all the warning signs and finally see the currency collapse.

Today, we are living the decline of developed economies’ fiat currencies in real time. The global reserve system is slowly but decisively diversifying away from a pure fiat currency anchor towards a mixed regime where gold plays the dominant role, not fiat currencies.

IMF COFER data show that, while the US dollar still dominates, its share of reported reserves has drifted down towards the high 50s. Gold has overtaken the US dollar and euro as the main asset in central banks for the first time in 40 years.

There is a reason for this historic change. Developed economies have surpassed all their limits to indebtedness.

Public debt is currency issuance, and the credibility of developed nations as issuers is fading fast. It started when the ECB, the Fed and major global central banks reported large losses. Their asset base was yielding negative returns as inflation and solvency issues became evident. Mainstream economists and governments dismissed these losses as insignificant, yet they demonstrated the extreme risk associated with the asset purchases made in previous years.

Inflation is a form of de facto gradual default on issued obligations, and global central banks are avoiding the debt of developed nations because they see a deterioration in the fiscal and inflationary outlook. Sovereign debt is not a reserve asset anymore.

Global public debt has reached about 102 trillion dollars, a new historical record, well above pre‑pandemic levels and close to the peaks hit during the most aggressive monetary expansion. Sovereign debt has driven this phenomenal rise, with countries like France and the United States running enormous annual deficits in non-crisis periods. Bidenomics in the United States was the clearest evidence of imprudent fiscal policy, running record deficits and increasing spending by more than two trillion US dollars in a period of strong economic recovery.

How did this loss of confidence happen? Monetary sovereign nations do not have an unlimited ability to issue currency and debt. They have clear limits that, when surpassed, generate an immediate loss of global confidence. Developed economies have breached the three limits, especially since 2021:

The economic limit is reached when ever-higher debt leads to a decrease in marginal growth. Government spending has bloated GDP, but productivity has stalled and net real wages are stagnant or declining.

The fiscal limit arises from the crowding out of productive investment by interest expense and entitlement spending. Despite financial repression, low rates, and monetary stimulus, interest expenses are taking up larger portions of developed nations’ budgets, making financing government obligations more expensive, even as the annualised CPI moderates.

The inflationary limit is reached as repeated monetary financing of government spending erodes confidence in the purchasing power of fiat money and cumulative inflation outpaces real wages, creating an affordability crisis.

The recent combination of high nominal debt, rising interest expense, and structural fiscal deficits in major advanced economies proves this crossing of all limits.

Central banks understand fiat money and know that sovereign debt is not the safe asset that provides stability and real economic returns anymore. Thus, they have responded with an unprecedented wave of gold purchases. Net official buying exceeded 1,100 tonnes in 2022 and remained above 1,000 tonnes in both 2023 and 2024, more than double the annual average between 2010 and 2021. By 2024, central banks officially purchased 1,045 tonnes of gold, marking the third consecutive year above the 1,000‑tonne level and extending a 15‑year streak of net additions. However, unofficial purchases are estimated to be significantly larger. Surveys show that around a third of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in the coming years, and more than four‑fifths expect global official gold holdings to keep rising due to concerns over persistent inflation, financial stability, and solvency issues.

The record gold demand is a direct answer to the lack of confidence in the sustainability of fiat liabilities issued by over‑indebted sovereigns. Gold has no default risk and no central bank control, making it a suitable investment when central banks themselves doubt the long‑term credibility of large nations’ currencies. ​

Many reserve managers believe that the way governments are heavily increasing their money supply during crises, along with only slow returns to normal policies, means that inflation and financial control are now permanent parts of the system instead of just temporary fixes. Thus, purchasing gold reserves is an insurance policy against the gradual taxation of savers through negative real yields and inflation.

Such an outcome does not mean an imminent collapse of the US dollar nor a dedollarisation process, but an unquestionable loss of confidence in fiat currencies altogether, from the euro and the pound to the yen and the US dollar. Indeed, the US dollar remains the dominant fiat currency, accounting for 89% of global transactions and holding 57% of global reserves. But it leads a declining empire of fake money.

Investors and central banks are moving to a hybrid reserve order in which fiat currencies coexist with a structurally higher allocation to gold but also a rising use of decentralised cryptocurrencies.

Some central banks are in panic. The ECB aims to enforce the use of the euro by implementing a central bank digital currency, but this misguided approach reflects both desperation and a desire for control. The Fed and the US government are incentivising stablecoins backed by Treasury bonds as a way of boosting demand for the dollar. This seems a better idea than imposition and repression, especially when the US government seems focused on reducing the deficit and debt. However, if the US government does not accelerate measures to reduce debt through growth policies and spending cuts, the confidence in the currency may weaken fast.

No government in advanced economies wants to cut spending, except perhaps the US administration, which is doing so modestly, despite evidence indicating a loss of confidence in its solvency. With economies facing government debt ratios above 100 percent of GDP, persistent primary deficits, and political resistance to serious spending cuts, fiat currency issuers are likely to remain trapped beyond economic, fiscal, and inflationary limits.

We are living through a historical monetary change that will have long-term implications. Global central banks have stopped believing in paper promises and demand real money. The first nation to adopt sound money and fiscal policies will win. The rest will lose.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 07:20

Nvidia Slides As Google Emerges As New Threat In AI-Chip Market

Alphabet shares jumped 4% in premarket trading after The Information reported that Meta is in talks to spend billions on Google's tensor processing units (TPUs) for its data centers beginning in 2027, with plans to potentially rent TPU capacity from Google Cloud in the near term.

The report sent Nvidia shares down roughly 3.5% as investors weighed the possibility that Google could seize some of Nvidia's market share. In other words, Google is gaining traction as a credible alternative to Nvidia's GPUs (read here). 

Also, SoftBank Group shares in Tokyo plunged as much as 11%, hitting a 2.5-month low on the news, as investors worry that Google's newly released Gemini 3 model could intensify competitive pressure on OpenAI, one of SoftBank's top investments.

"The stocks are hit by concerns that the competition environment of OpenAI will become tougher after Google's Gemini 3 received strong reviews," Mitsubishi UFJ eSmart Securities Co. analyst Tsutomu Yamada told clients. 

Internally, Google Cloud executives forecast that TPU adoption could capture up to 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue, amounting to tens of billions of dollars.

"One of the ways Google has attracted customers to use TPUs in Google Cloud is by pitching that they're cheaper to use than pricey Nvidia chips. The high prices for Nvidia chips have made it difficult for other cloud providers like Oracle to generate solid gross profit margins from renting out Nvidia chips," the report noted. 

Google recently struck a deal to supply up to 1 million TPUs to Anthropic, further validating demand for TPUs. 

After the Anthropic-Google deal was announced, Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg described it as a "really powerful validation" for TPUs. "A lot of people were already thinking about it, and a lot more people are probably thinking about it now." 

Here's what Bloomberg Intelligence analysts are saying: 

Meta's likely use of Google's TPUs, which are already used by Anthropic, shows third-party providers of large language models are likely to leverage Google as a secondary supplier of accelerator chips for inferencing in the near term. Meta's capex of at least $100 billion for 2026 suggests it will spend at least $40-$50 billion on inferencing-chip capacity next year, we calculate. Consumption and backlog growth for Google Cloud might accelerate vs. other hyperscalers and neo-cloud peers due to demand from enterprise customers that want to consume TPUs and Gemini LLMs on Google Cloud.

The bottom line is that Meta's potential shift toward Google TPUs only suggests a growing willingness among hyperscalers to diversify away from Nvidia.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 06:55

UK Government "Resist" Program Monitors Citizens' Online Posts

Authored by Cam Wakefield via Reclaim The Net,

Let’s begin with a simple question. What do you get when you cross a bloated PR department with a clipboard-wielding surveillance unit?

The answer, apparently, is the British Government Communications Service (GCS). Once a benign squad of slogan-crafting, policy-promoting clipboard enthusiasts, they’ve now evolved (or perhaps mutated) into what can only be described as a cross between MI5 and a neighborhood Reddit moderator with delusions of grandeur.

Yes, your friendly local bureaucrat is now scrolling through Facebook groups, lurking in comment sections, and watching your aunt’s status update about the “new hotel down the road filling up with strangers” like it’s a scene from Homeland. All in the name of “societal cohesion,” of course.

Once upon a time, the GCS churned out posters with perky slogans like Stay Alert or Get Boosted Now, like a government-powered BuzzFeed.

But now, under the updated “Resist” framework (yes, it’s actually called that), the GCS has been reprogrammed to patrol the internet for what they’re calling “high-risk narratives.”

Not terrorism. Not hacking. No, according to The Telegraph, the new public enemy is your neighbor questioning things like whether the council’s sudden housing development has anything to do with the 200 migrants housed in the local hotel.

It’s all in the manual: if your neighbor posts that “certain communities are getting priority housing while local families wait years,” this, apparently, is a red flag. An ideological IED. The sort of thing that could “deepen community divisions” and “create new tensions.”

This isn’t surveillance, we’re told. It’s “risk assessment.” Just a casual read-through of what that lady from your yoga class posted about a planning application. The framework warns of “local parental associations” and “concerned citizens” forming forums.

And why the sudden urgency? The new guidance came hot on the heels of a real incident, protests outside hotels housing asylum seekers, following the sexual assault of a 14-year-old girl by Hadush Kebatu, an Ethiopian migrant.

Now, instead of looking at how that tragedy happened or what policies allowed it, the government’s solution is to scan the reaction to it.

What we are witnessing is the rhetorical equivalent of chucking all dissent into a bin labelled “disinformation” and slamming the lid shut.

The original Resist framework was cooked up in 2019 as a European-funded toolkit to fight actual lies. Now, it equates perfectly rational community concerns about planning, safety, and who gets housed where with Russian bots and deepfakes. If you squint hard enough, everyone starts to look like a threat.

Local councils have even been drafted into the charade. New guidance urges them to follow online chatter about asylum seekers in hotels or the sudden closure of local businesses.

One case study even panics over a town hall meeting where residents clapped. That’s right. Four hundred people clapped in support of someone they hadn’t properly Googled first. This, we’re told, is dangerous.

So now councils are setting up “cohesion forums” and “prebunking” schemes to manage public anger. Prebunking. Like bunking, but done in advance, before you’ve even heard the thing you’re not meant to believe.

It’s the equivalent of a teacher telling you not to laugh before the joke’s even landed.

Naturally, this is all being wrapped in the cosy language of protecting democracy. A government spokesman insisted, with a straight face: “We are committed to protecting people online while upholding freedom of expression.”

Because let’s be real, this isn’t about illegal content or safeguarding children. It’s about managing perception. When you start labeling ordinary gripes and suspicions as “narratives” that need “countering,” what you’re really saying is: we don’t trust the public to think for themselves.

If you’re tired of censorship and surveillance, join Reclaim The Net.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 06:30

These Are The Most Religious States In America

Religion plays a defining role in American culture and politics, but the degree of religiosity varies dramatically by state.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, maps out the share of adults who are highly religious based on survey data from the Pew Research Center.

The survey was of 36,908 adults, conducted July 2023 to March 2024, with religiousness based on prayer frequency, attendance at religious services, belief in God, and the importance of religion in life.

Which U.S. States are the Most Religious?

Mississippi leads as America’s most religious state, with 50% of adults surveyed categorized as highly religious.

The table below shows the share of residents in each U.S. state who are considered highly religious:

South Carolina follows Mississippi with 46% of adults highly religious, with South Dakota and Louisiana tied next at 45%.

The data highlights a strong concentration of religious adherence in the American South. States like Tennessee (44%), North Carolina (41%), and Arkansas (40%) demonstrate the cultural legacy of the “Bible Belt,” where Christianity remains woven into America’s religiosity.

The Least-Religious States in America

In contrast, the Northeast and much of the West Coast are markedly less religious.

New England stands out for its secularism with the three least-religious states in America: Vermont (13%), New Hampshire (15%) and Maine (17%).

Alongside New England, western states like Nevada (20%) and Oregon (21%) show lower levels of religious engagement, with California only slightly higher at 24%.

Overall, the national average of highly religious adults sits at 31%, with the difference between the top and bottom states—Mississippi’s 50% versus Vermont’s 13%—illustrating just how much religiosity varies across the United States.

To learn more about religion around the world, check out this graphic which shows the world’s most popular religions.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 05:45

They've Learned Nothing... Because That Would Expose Too Much

Authored by Roger Bate via The Brownstone Institute,

The UK Covid-19 Inquiry has finally released the core political chapters of its long-awaited report. After nearly three years of hearings, millions of documents, and tens of millions of pounds spent on legal fees, the conclusion is now unmistakably clear.

They’ve learned nothing, as I detail in my latest research. 

Worse, they may not want to learn.

The Inquiry’s structure, its analytical frame, even its carefully curated narrative all point in the same direction: away from the possibility that Britain’s pandemic response was fundamentally misguided, and toward the politically safer claim that ministers simply “acted too late.”

On November 20, 2025, Jay Bhattacharya captured this perfectly in a single sentence on X: “Fact check; not locking down at all (like Sweden) would have saved lives in UK. Hard to believe how much money the UK spent on its sham covid inquiry.” That tweet was provocative—but it was also accurate in its diagnosis of the Inquiry’s deeper pathologies.

The Inquiry’s Central Mistake: Asking the Wrong Question

From the outset, the Inquiry has framed Britain’s pandemic response as a timing problem. Lockdowns were assumed to be necessary and effective; the only question was whether politicians implemented them quickly enough. The result is a dry recitation of process failures and personality clashes inside Downing Street, all of which are said to have delayed the inevitable “stay-at-home” order.

But that framing was never neutral. It was baked into the Inquiry’s analytical choices—especially its uncritical reliance on the same family of models that drove the UK into lockdown in March 2020.

The centerpiece of that modeling tradition is Imperial College London’s Report 9, the document that forecast hundreds of thousands of UK deaths absent stringent lockdowns. That report assumed near-homogeneous mixing, limited voluntary behavior change, and high fatality rates across the population. Under those assumptions, lockdown becomes not a political choice but a mathematical necessity.

The Inquiry has now rerun the same machinery and, unsurprisingly, produced the same conclusion.

Its headline claim—that delaying lockdown by a week caused roughly 23,000 additional deaths—is not a historical finding. It is not based on observational data. It is simply the output of an Imperial-style model with a different start date.

The Inquiry has restated the model, not tested it.

The Evidence They Chose Not to See

The Inquiry’s blindness becomes fully apparent when we ask the obvious comparative question: if the lockdown paradigm were correct, what would we expect to see among countries that refused to lock down?

We would expect chaos. We would expect mass hospital collapse. We would expect mortality catastrophes to dwarf the UK.

We would expect, in short, to see Sweden in ruins.

Instead, we see the opposite.

Sweden kept primary schools open, avoided stay-at-home orders, relied heavily on voluntary behavior, and preserved civil liberties throughout the pandemic. After correcting early care-home errors, Sweden recorded one of the lowest age-adjusted excess mortality rates in Europe.

The Swedish experience is not a footnote. It is not an “exception.” It is the control case—the real-world test of the lockdown paradigm.

And it falsifies it.

A serious Inquiry would have begun with Sweden. It would have asked why a country that rejected lockdowns achieved better mortality outcomes than Britain while preserving education, normal life, and basic freedoms. It would have integrated that evidence into every chapter. It would have examined whether voluntary behavior changes, targeted protection, and risk-based messaging can substitute for mass coercion.

Instead, Sweden is barely mentioned. When it appears at all, it is described as an anomaly. The Inquiry behaves as though Sweden is politically inconvenient—not analytically essential.

Because it is.

The Modeling Was Wrong. The Inquiry Can’t Admit It.

If the Inquiry were genuinely interested in learning, it would examine whether the models that drove the UK’s response were flawed. It would review the assumptions underpinning Report 9. It would test them against real-world data from multiple countries. It would commission adversarial modeling groups. It would bring in critics. It would examine alternative frameworks.

It did none of these things.

The behavior of the public is a perfect example. Imperial-style models assume that people remain near-normal in their social contacts without legal mandates. But mobility data, workplace activity, and school attendance show that Britons began adjusting their behavior weeks before Boris Johnson held the lockdown press conference. High-risk individuals adapted earliest. Businesses reacted to perceived risks earlier than the state. Families responded faster than the Cabinet Office.

The models were wrong about behavior.

Yet the Inquiry’s analysis still treats people as if they only respond to orders, not information.

The result is a fantasy counterfactual: a Britain that would have carried on as normal in March 2020 had the government not intervened. That Britain never existed.

Where Is the Cost–Benefit Analysis?

The Inquiry promised to evaluate the “relative benefits and disbenefits” of non-pharmaceutical interventions. It has not done so. There is no integrated accounting of:

• the millions of missed cancer screenings

• the explosion in mental-health morbidity

• the delayed cardiovascular care

• the long-term educational loss from school closures

• the widening inequality gaps

• the years-long damage to the NHS backlog

• the economic scarring that will shorten future lives

Lockdowns always look good when you only count Covid deaths. But public health is cumulative. It is intertemporal. Saving a life today by destroying ten years of someone’s earning power is not a victory.

The Inquiry refuses to engage with these trade-offs. It is easier to condemn “late lockdowns” than to ask whether lockdowns were the wrong tool altogether.

The Real Reason the Inquiry Learned Nothing

The central failure of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry is not analytical. It is institutional.

A real investigation would expose catastrophic judgment errors across the political and scientific establishment. It would show that ministers outsourced strategy to a narrow modeling group. It would reveal that the harms of lockdowns were not only foreseeable but foreseen. It would vindicate critics who were ridiculed or censored. It would anger parents whose children suffered educational harm. It would enrage families whose loved ones died because routine care was suspended. It would shatter public trust in Whitehall and SAGE.

That is precisely what the Inquiry cannot do.

Instead, it offers a politically safe narrative. The strategy was sound. The problem was timing. Ministers were slow. Advisors were frustrated. Downing Street was chaotic. But the solution next time is simple: lock down earlier, lock down harder, lock down smarter.

It is a comforting fairy tale for the people who caused the damage.

The Truth Is Already Clear

Bhattacharya’s November 2025 tweet may have been blunt, but it crystallized what the Inquiry is unwilling to say. Sweden shows that not locking down at all could have saved British lives—not merely reduced collateral damage, but saved lives.

That is the final heresy. And that is why the Inquiry cannot confront it.

Learning would expose too much.

The UK did not simply lock down too late. It locked down unnecessarily. The Inquiry should have been a reckoning. Instead, it became a shield—protecting institutions rather than illuminating truth.

Britain deserved better. The world deserved better.

Until we admit what went wrong, we remain doomed to repeat it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/25/2025 - 05:00

JP Morgan, Who Had No Issues Banking Epstein, Abruptly Closes Strike CEO Jack Mallers' Account

JPMorgan Chase abruptly closed Strike CEO Jack Mallers’ personal accounts last month, giving him no warning and offering only a cryptic explanation, according to Yahoo Finance.

Mallers posted on X that “Last month, J.P. Morgan Chase threw me out of the bank,” noting how odd it was given that “My dad has been a private client there for 30+ years.” When he asked why, the bank told him only: “We aren’t allowed to tell you.”

Yahoo writes that he even framed the closure letter, which accused him of unspecified “concerning activity” and warned the bank “may not be able to open new accounts for you in the future.”

The incident reignited concerns that the alleged Biden-era “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” is still lurking in the background, despite Trump’s new executive order aimed at penalizing firms that debank crypto businesses. Critics online immediately connected the dots, suggesting regulators and banks are still quietly squeezing crypto-aligned companies and founders.

JPMorgan’s move sparked a broader backlash from Bitcoin advocates like Grant Cardone, Max Keiser, and others who are already furious over the bank’s perceived hostility toward Bitcoin and its recent push to delist companies with heavy BTC exposure. Many publicly closed their JPMorgan accounts, accusing the bank of targeting the crypto sector while having no trouble maintaining far more questionable clients in the past. (Apparently “concerning activity” was never a problem back when they were happily banking Epstein.)

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino replied to Mallers that the whole ordeal is “for the best,” later adding that organizations trying to undermine Bitcoin “will fail and become dust.” Meanwhile, JPMorgan insists it’s just protecting the “security and integrity of the financial system”—a claim that might land better if the bank’s compliance radar didn’t seem to activate only when the customer is a crypto CEO rather than, say, a notorious sex-trafficking financier.

Recall just days ago we wrote that the bank is now under fire from Florida officials over its cooperation with the Biden DOJ's anti-Trump investigation known as “Arctic Frost,” - providing sensitive banking information to Biden prosecutor Jack Smith. 

Also we noted US regulators are examining whether JPMorgan Chase has denied customers fair access to banking, as pressure grows over debanking decisions that were made against conservative figures, according to reporting from Financial Times and the company's 10-Q filing.

In its quarterly filing, the bank noted it was “responding to requests from government authorities and other external parties regarding, among other things, the firm’s policies and processes and the provision of services to customers and potential customers”.

JPMorgan linked the scrutiny to an August executive order from Donald Trump directing regulators to review possible “politicised or unlawful debanking”. The bank said related inquiries include “reviews, investigations and legal proceedings,” without identifying the agencies involved.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 22:10

Google Denies Claims That It's Reading Gmails To Train Its AI

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Google is denying viral claims that private Gmail emails are being used to train its AI models.

An illustration of a mobile phone and laptop with the Google website, on Dec. 14, 2020. Laurie Dieffembacq/BELGA MAG/AFP via Getty Images

The announcement follows multiple reports this past week that the company has rolled out such features.

In a post issued on Nov. 21, Gmail said that it wanted to “set the record straight on recent misleading reports.” It listed several points, saying, “We have not changed anyone’s settings,” Gmail’s “smart features” have existed for years, and, “We do not use your Gmail content to train our Gemini AI model.”

“We are always transparent and clear if we make changes to our terms [and] policies,” Google said.

The claims about Google included a post from cybersecurity company MalwareBytes, about which the company later issued a correction. Separately, a post on X from a YouTube content creator received around 150,000 likes. It contained similar claims that users were automatically opted into allowing Google to use Gmail emails to train its AI models.

“We’ve updated this article after realizing we contributed to a perfect storm of misunderstanding around a recent change in the wording and placement of Gmail’s smart features,” MalwareBytes said in its correction.

“The settings themselves aren’t new, but the way Google recently rewrote and surfaced them led a lot of people (including us) to believe Gmail content might be used to train Google’s AI models, and that users were being opted in automatically.”

The company noted that “after taking a closer look at Google’s documentation and reviewing other reporting, that doesn’t appear to be the case.”

Google has maintained on several of its blogs that it would protect user privacy regarding its Gemini AI models.

“Your data stays in Workspace,” says a company policy page. “We do not use your Workspace data to train or improve the underlying generative AI and large language models that power Gemini, Search, and other systems outside of Workspace without permission.”

It adds that for some features, including “accepting or rejecting spelling suggestions, or reporting spam,” suggestions are rendered anonymous or aggregated and could be used in “new features we are currently developing, like improved prompt suggestions that help Workspace users get the best results from Gemini features.”

“These features are developed with strict privacy protections that keep users in control,” the company  says.

The smart features program for Gmail allows automated email filtering or categorization, automated composition of text in email, or suggests quick replies to emails, according to the company.

To determine whether the features are turned on or off, users can open Gmail on a desktop or mobile app and click on the gear icon before proceeding to See All Settings on desktop or Settings on mobile.

Then they can go to a section called smart features in Gmail, Chat, and Meet. To turn the features on or off, users can check or uncheck the box that says “Turn on smart features in Gmail, Chat, and Meet.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 21:45

The Mystery Of Intuition: Where Gut Feelings Really Come From

Authored by Makai Allbert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

We’ve all experienced intuition in some form or another. The hunch of knowing without understanding why; the sense that something is right—or terribly wrong—before conscious thought catches up. Or a simple instinct that something is off about a stranger.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Intuition goes beyond superstition, serving as a sophisticated form of intelligence operating largely beneath conscious awareness.

The phenomenon raises a question that has intrigued scientists, philosophers, and everyday decision makers: Where do gut feelings really come from?

Knowing Without Knowing How

Studies have found that when chess grandmasters are given just five seconds to evaluate a position, they can make accurate predictions despite lacking time for conscious analysis.

Due to the thousands of hours of experience under their belts, their brains can make rapid decisions through pattern recognition, without requiring deliberate thought. This experience, similarly reflected among experts across many fields—doctors, military personnel, and firefighters—points to the possibility that intuition may emerge from a rich substrate of prior experience.

Emma Seppälä, psychologist and science director at Stanford University’s Center for Compassion and Altruism Research and Education, told The Epoch Times that in these instances, intuition is “a fast, instinctive form of intelligence that operates separately from our conscious thoughts.”

Yet, this kind of intuitive, rapid processing isn’t limited to professional skills. Going with your gut may be especially true in complex situations in your own life. Research shows that when people face complex decisions, such as selecting a home or making major life choices, those who focus on their feelings rather than painstakingly analyzing every detail often make better decisions and, perhaps even more importantly, are more satisfied with the outcome.

Illustration by The Epoch Times

Kamila Malewska, who studies intuition in managerial decision-making at Poznań University of Economics and Business, believes intuition is invaluable in situations with multiple alternatives, no clear criteria, insufficient information, and unique problems without precedent.

The Biology of Gut Feelings

We often say we have a “gut feeling,” and research now shows the phrase carries both a metaphorical and biological truth.

The gut has what scientists refer to as a “second brain,” comprising more than 200 million neurons. These neurons send signals back and forth with the brain through the vagus nerve, forming the gut-brain axis. This system creates a feedback loop that affects how we feel physically and emotionally.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Moreover, the health of the gut microbiota, which comprises approximately 38 trillion bacteria, can affect feelings of urgency, emotions, and even memory, as it produces chemicals that affect the brain. In mouse experiments, tweaking the gut microbiota balance can alter brain neurochemistry, making mice more bold or anxious. Notably, in humans, approximately 90 percent of serotonin, a key neurotransmitter that influences mood and decision-making, is produced in the gut. This indicates that emotional states and intuitive feelings may be influenced by the gut-brain axis.

This connection isn’t new. The vagus nerve may have helped our predecessors find food and avoid danger through gut-based intuitive signals. Today, the gut-brain system still functions, albeit in a different manner. When you feel butterflies in your stomach before a big decision, or a sinking feeling when something seems wrong, you may be experiencing this ancient communication system at work.

Unconscious Gestalt

Besides the gut-brain axis, neuroscientists have found other brain processes that may explain intuition.

One way to understand intuition is to examine how memories form.

Don Tucker, a neuroscientist who studies consciousness and memory, explained that memory occurs before you are aware of it.

“Memory is organized from an implicit level where general meaning is not fully articulated into conscious access, but is still very powerful in providing a sense of the gist of the information,” Tucker told The Epoch Times.

In other words, before we consciously remember or notice something, our brains, especially our limbic system, rapidly sort out experiences, picking up the important bits and giving a holistic level of understanding.

This process relates to another psychological concept called gestalt: the brain’s tendency to perceive patterns rather than individual parts, and to create closure to make sense of incomplete information.

Consider a manager interviewing a seemingly perfect candidate. Their resume seems impeccable, their answers are satisfactory, but something still feels wrong. Only later does the manager realize subtle inconsistencies in the candidate’s story, a shift in eye contact during discussions of previous employment, and a mismatch between verbal and nonverbal expressions. The cues may not have been noticed in the moment, but the brain assembled them into an intuitive warning—into an unconscious gestalt.

Neuroscience supports these ideas. The right hemisphere of the brain is good at spotting patterns and noticing things that don’t fit, even if we’re not aware of it. The hippocampus compares what we see now with past experiences, while the orbitofrontal cortex integrates emotional memories with present sensory input. The result appears as a feeling rather than a thought.

The process of unconscious becoming conscious is driven by what is called predictive processing.

Rather than passively receiving stimuli and then reacting, predictive processing theory suggests that the brain actively generates predictions about what it should perceive based on its experience. When these predictions detect a mismatch—something that does not fit the expected pattern—the result manifests as intuitive unease or “knowing.”

According to Tucker, consciousness develops from this primitive, intuitive level through a process of articulation. A vague feeling—a sense of “no, I shouldn’t do that”—gradually becomes more conscious and explicit as the brain works to understand why the feeling arose.

Could intuition also come from somewhere else?

Perhaps, instead of merely reacting to the present, intuition offers us a glimpse of the future.

Memories From the Future

In the mid-1990s, Dean Radin at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, designed an experiment to test whether awareness could transcend time. He had participants connected to an EEG machine and placed in front of a computer screen. The computer randomly selected and displayed pleasant or disturbing images after a brief pause.

Radin noticed that people’s brains became more active just before seeing disturbing images, but not before positive ones. It was as if the brain could sense something bad was coming, even seconds before it happened. This effect was called “presentiment.”

Replicated results following Radin’s original experiment. Lower heart rate variability in response to disturbing images indicates a stronger fight-or-flight reaction. Illustration by The Epoch Times

The results were statistically significant, and other researchers, such as Daryl Bem at Cornell University, found similar effects in their own experiments.

A 2012 meta-analysis of 26 studies spanning three decades found that experiments like Radin’s and Bem’s suggest that human physiology can distinguish between randomly delivered emotional and neutral stimuli occurring one to 10 seconds in the future.​

This isn’t precognition in the traditional sense—a psychic power of seeing future events—participants aren’t consciously predicting them. Instead, their autonomic nervous systems—heart rate, skin conductance, and brain activity—show measurable arousal before encountering emotionally significant stimuli. According to the 2012 meta-analysis, the effect size may be small. Still, it’s statistically significant across multiple laboratories and researchers, with the probability of the effect being a coincidence estimated at one in a trillion. That’s the equivalent of flipping a coin and getting heads 40 times in a row.

Julia Mossbridge at Northwestern University, who led the meta-analysis, said when the study was released: “The phenomenon is anomalous, some scientists argue, because we can’t explain it using present-day understanding about how biology works.”

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 20:55

Ukraine Rejects Key Aspects Of Trump's Peace Plan, Won't Cede Territory 

On Monday the Zelensky government laid out its red lines concerning the US-proposed peace plan with Russia, which demands that Kiev agree to territorial concessions in the eastern Donbas region. 

Ukraine's senior political leaders and lawmakers, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, set firm non-negotiable conditions for any future peace agreement with Russia, coupled with a warning that Moscow is attempting to force the international community to accept its territorial seizures, according to Ukrainian media. 

Kyiv Post cited parliament speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk as making clear that Ukraine will not accept "any form of legal recognition of Russia’s occupation," nor will accept that restrictions be placed on its armed forces, given the US 28-point plan calls for just that. The statement is said to also express with will of the presidential office.

Getty Images

Most importantly, the Zelensky government has said it will reject outside attempts to control its future alliances, which is a reference to the US plan's call for a commitment that Ukraine never join NATO.

Additionally, frozen Russian assets should serve as the "cost of aggression" - speaker Stefanchuk made clear. The current US draft plan envisions that merely some - possibly about one-third of what's been frozen in European banks - would be used for war reparations. 

The so-called European counter-plan currently being floated in leaked draft format is actually more consistent with these demands of Kiev. President Putin has said that Trump's plan could form the basis of a future peace, but the Kremlin is unlikely to see anything workable in the European plan.

Meanwhile President Zelensky is still trying to walk a fine line between pleasing Trump while showing willingness to work toward an end to the conflict, and sticking to a firm 'pro-Ukraine' wartime stance.

In a Sunday Truth Social post Trump had blasted Zelensky and the Ukrainians for showing "zero gratitude" for the US efforts.

But in follow-up, Zelensky is trying to make nice, pledging in his own response post that Ukraine would "never be an obstacle to peace" - but also emphasized the importance of his country remaining independent and sovereign. 

Zelenskyy responded to Trump's latest post about "zero gratitude" from Ukrainian leadership. pic.twitter.com/IdQ1j1qkeY

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 23, 2025

"Everyone is offering support, giving advice, providing information — and I am grateful to each and every person who is giving this help to us, to Ukraine. It is important to ensure that the steps to end the war are effective, and that everything is doable," Zelensky explained. "Ukraine has never wanted war, and we will never be an obstacle to peace."

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 20:30

"It's A Tinder Box": GOP Members Consider Following MTG Into Retirement, Say White House Treats Them 'Like Garbage'

Following the surprise announcement by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) that she's retiring from Congress in 42 days - claiming that President Trump and House Republicans have abandoned America First priorities, it appears that others within the GOP are looking for the exit as well. 

According to Punchbowl News, they received several messages over the weekend from disaffected Republicans who may follow MTG's lead. 

One particularly pissed Republican told Punchbowl: 

“This entire White House team has treated ALL members like garbage. ALL. And Mike Johnson has let it happen because he wanted it to happen. That is the sentiment of nearly all — appropriators, authorizers, hawks, doves, rank and file. The arrogance of this White House team is off putting to members who are run roughshod and threatened. They don’t even allow little wins like announcing small grants or even responding from agencies. Not even the high profile, the regular rank and file random members are more upset than ever. Members know they are going into the minority after the midterms.

“More explosive early resignations are coming. It’s a tinder box. Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.”

The outlet does note that MTG has "never been representative of the House Republican Conference writ large," and "clearly has a bone to pick with Trump and the leadership."

While she denied rumors that her early retirement means she's running for president in the next election, some have suggested that she may be running for Georgia governor. 

Johnson, meanwhile, points out that they have "impossibly small margins" and say they're doing the best they can with "the hand they were dealt." 

If Republicans lose another House member to death, retirement or illness, the GOP could even end up in the minority in 2026. 

Punchbowl does the math:

Republicans have 219 seats and Democrats have 213. There’s a special election in Tennessee on Dec. 2 to fill former Rep. Mark Green’s (R-Tenn.) seat. Democrats and Republicans are pouring piles of money into that district, which Trump won by more than 20 points.

If Republicans win, their margin will remain the same after MTG’s retirement.

But Democrats will gain a seat in Houston at the end of January when voters choose the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s (D-Texas) replacement. And on April 16, New Jersey voters will choose Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s replacement. That’s a seat that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by nine percentage points in 2024.

Let’s say Democrats are able to steal the Tennessee seat based on subpar GOP turnout — unlikely but possible — Johnson would have 218 members to Democrats’ 214. Texas and New Jersey would bring Democrats to 216. If any members retire or fall ill, Johnson would be sunk.

House retirements and resignations are common after holidays. How appealing is it to return to the Capitol when the House spends most of its time voting on censure resolutions or meaningless messaging bills?

Meanwhile, government funding runs out again Jan. 30, and House lawmakers are privately acknowledging that there will be another battle with the Senate. And with so many pissed off Republicans in the House, Johnson is facing a slew of discharge petitions on health care, Russia sanctions, and a likely DP to ban stock trading in Congress. Discharge petitions are notably how the rank and file lodge their complaints with leadership - and it's so bad that Johnson has floated the idea of changing House Rules to make it harder to file them.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 20:05

Bolsonaro & Those Damn Indestructible Ankle Monitors

The plot has again thickened, and got a bit weirder, in the arrest and trial saga of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison in September for an alleged coup attempt related to not accepting the results of the last presidential election.

We detailed Saturday that federal police rushed to his residence Saturday to take him out of house arrest, and initiated what's being called a 'preventative arrest' - and he was whisked away to police headquarters in Brasilia. The arrest order issued from the country's top court came hours after his ankle monitor was shown to be violated at 12:08am on Saturday. From there, authorities considered Bolsonaro a flight risk, explaining he is in close proximity to foreign embassies where he might try and gain asylum.

Bolsonaro's damaged ankle monitor. Source: Federal District’s Secretariat for Penitentiary Administration

Bolsonaro was in court Monday for a full day of trial, part of what's likely to be a lengthy appeals process, where he surprisingly confirmed that he did indeed tamper with the ankle monitor. His explanation got strange, telling the court that he suffered a nervous breakdown and hallucinations caused by a change in his medication, after which was fearful of the device as it might be 'wiretapped'.

Assistant judge Luciana Sorrentino said following a meeting with Bolsonaro where she inquired of the incident, "he had 'hallucinations' that there was some wire tap in the ankle monitoring, so he tried to uncover it." Sorrentino described further of the conversation that Bolsonaro told her he "did not remember having a breakdown of this magnitude in another occasion" and that it could be linked to a change in medication, but he insisted there was no intention of trying to escape.

The former Brazilian leader "said he was with his daughter, his elder brother and an aide at his house and none of them saw what he was doing to the ankle monitoring," according to a court document which has been made public. "He said he started to touch it late at night and stopped around midnight."

Photos released by the court show the ankle monitor's cap heavily damaged, after he reportedly at one point took a soldering iron to it. According to The New York Times:

At first, Mr. Bolsonaro told the police that he had banged his ankle monitor causing it to malfunction, according to a report from the capital region’s prison authority.

But when an agent on the scene asked about the burn marks on the device, Mr. Bolsonaro admitted using a soldering iron to try to melt it. In a video of the exchange released by the authorities, Mr. Bolsonaro can be heard apparently telling the agent that he had started torching the monitor hours earlier.

His legal team has since claimed that "Bolsonaro would have no way of escaping" as he is "an elderly man who suffers from serious health problems.

However, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has long been a political enemy (the US has even sanctioned him personally) as well as chief overseer of the case, described over the weekend, "He is located about 13 kilometers (8 miles) away from where the United States of America embassy lies, in a distance that can be covered in a 15-minute drive."

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro told a judge that medicine-induced paranoia and hallucination caused him to tamper with an electronic ankle monitor, court records showed, a day after police took him into custody out of fear he might flee https://t.co/UDE85hVyXg pic.twitter.com/cmCan0ehnS

— Reuters (@Reuters) November 24, 2025

There's also the fear that the Embassy of Argentina would be open to helping him find safe-haven. But his legal team has said that he must serve his prison sentence at home as his severe health problems "makes his safe stay in a prison environment impossible." President Trump has long decried the case as a 'witch hunt' while the Lula government has condemned Washington's 'interference' in the internal affair.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 19:40

Waste Of The Day: California's Clean Energy Investment Doesn't Pay

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: In 2007, California invested $468.4 million of its pension funds into private companies through its Clean Energy and Technology Fund. Today, the money is worth just $138 million, and the state won’t explain why its investment performed so poorly. Several open records requests filed by The Center Square were denied by the California Public Employees Retirement System, citing legal exemptions. 

Key facts: CalPERS’ clean energy investments declined by 71% and lost the state $330.4 million. It’s unclear where the money was spent, except that it was invested “across the spectrum of the global clean energy and technology value chain.” The state’s website lists two equity firms that received nearly $48 million in investments and lost almost $32 million of it.

The Center Square estimated that if California had invested its $468.4 million in an S&P 500 index fund in 2007 instead of the Clean Energy Fund, the money would now be worth $3 billion.

Private equity firms were paid at least $22 million to manage California’s clean energy investments, according to The Center Square. 

CalPERS has been increasing its investments in private companies for years, as opposed to public equity investments in publicly-traded stocks and bonds. The state now plans to invest 17% of its pension fund in private equity, up from 7% in 2021, according to The Center Square.

Critical quote: State Assemblyman Carl DeMaio was among those to respond to the report. He wrote a letter to the U.S. Department of Justice asking for an investigation into how California’s pension savings were spent, and claimed that “If CalPERS were a private entity, people would be going to jail over this outrageous violation of fiduciary responsibility — but California politicians have passed laws allowing CalPERS leadership to get a pass.” 

“CalPERS’ job is to safeguard retirement funds, not gamble them away to score political points,” DeMaio said. “This is financial malpractice and a betrayal of public trust, and the public deserves to know exactly who made these reckless decisions.”  

Background: CalPERS only has 79% of the money it needs to pay pensions it has already promised to retirees. If the money does not materialize before the pensions are due, taxpayers will likely be responsible for the remaining 21%.

In dollar terms, CalPERS is underfunded by $174.6 billion, according to Equable. No other retirement system in the country has more than $85 billion worth of debt. Executive Officer Marcie Frost earned a $530,000 salary last year.

California also manages a separate pension fund for teachers, which is underfunded by $69 billion. Its Chief Investment Officer Christopher Ailman made $561,000 last year, the highest salary on the state payroll. 

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Summary: Taxpayers deserve full transparency into even small amounts of government spending, but oversight of one of the largest pools of state funding in the U.S. is especially important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 17:40