What's Behind The Plunging Won And Sudden Liquidity Collapse In Korean Markets

South Korea’s won weakened for a fourth day as overseas investors accelerated their relentless sales of local stocks.

In response, USD/KRW rose 0.1% to 1,552.60, extending its four-day gain to 1.2% (i.e. KRW drop).

According to Barclays, pressure from both resident outflows and more recently in the case of Korea, heavy foreign outflows, could pose further headwinds even as exports performance remains robust and domestic equities extend their bubble. 

Let's take a closer look at what's driving the key moves in Korea.

Why was USDKRW higher?

Other than stronger USD, Goldman has been highlighting that rebalancing related equity outflow has been the dominating factor. Equity outflow from Jun 22nd till month-end amounted to US$18bn, bringing total Jun equity outflow to US$30bn. This follows the US$27bn outflow observed in May. As of today, Samsung and Hynix are 32% and 30% of MSCI Korea respectively, which are 7% and 5% above the 25% single stock limit. A combined 12% rebalancing effort would lead to another US$24bn outflow with US$200bn AUM (passive and active) estimated tracking MSCI Korea.

Additionally, other portfolio concentration limits such as UCITS and HF internal concentration limit rule are also likely to be driving the rebalancing related outflows. In terms of timing, some fast money rebalancing is relatively real time, while many real money and passive investors may rebalance at quarter-ends which led to more concentrated outflows.

FX hedging need by foreign investors drove RHS USDKRW demand. Goldman estimates average foreigners’ FX hedging ratio for Korean equities to be 10-15%, and the hedging mainly happens in offshore NDF market. As of March-end, foreigners’ exposure to Korean equities was US$1tn. Due to the 68% expansion in market cap in KOSPI in Q2, the associated FX hedging need rose by an estimate of US$68-US$102bn (US$1000*68%* 10-15%) during the quarter. This has led to sharp increase in RHS NDF hedging demand, some of which concentrated at quarter end as well. 

Other than above-mentioned hedging dynamics, FX hedging demand by USD-denominated total return swaps with leveraged equity underlying provided to offshore clients by local security houses via intermediaries also likely added to FX hedging demand in NDF market, especially as equity marketcap expanded quickly in Q2.  

Why did liquidity tighten?

• Sharp rise in borrowing by securities firm was likely the main driver behind tighter onshore liquidity. Surge in onshore retail margin trading and leveraged single-stock ETFs caused sharp rise in funding needs of local securities firms. In particular, with leveraged ETF, the need to post futures margin for hedging positions for securities firms drove the borrowing demand.

• Local news reported securities firms’ commercial paper and short-term bonds issuances exceeded KRW100tn each month and accounted for 80% of short-term bond issuance in recent months.

• Decline of collateral value for securities firms facing offshore counterparties worsens the liquidity situation. When local securities firms face offshore intermediaries on total return swaps, they not only have rising needs to post margins from underlying stock advance, but also from declining collateral value as KRW FX depreciated and KTB sold off. These dynamics further increased securities firms’ margin requirement in KRW terms, which in turn added to their local borrowing demand. Similar situation happened in late 2022 with KRW and KTB sold off sharply at the same time during BOK hiking cycle. Looking forward, local news reports Samsung securities plans KRW600tn short-term issuance in Jul, indicating such liquidity tightness is unlikely to ease. 
• Forthcoming BOK hike (starting in Jul per GIR base case) likely also added to the expectation of higher funding costs ahead.
• Goldman has observed widening of spread between NDF curve offshore and onshore FX swap. This could be a result of unwinding onshore-offshore arbitrage positions as RHS hedging demand caused sharp surge in NDF points. 

 
Looking ahead, if Korean equity continues to charge higher in a volatile fashion, combined with likely BOK hikes, Goldman thinks such liquidity environment is likely to stay or tighten further. Thus NDF points are likely to stay elevated and the bank prefers pay on dip. In a strong USD environment, KRW FX pressure is unlikely to ease from external forces, which does not help NDF points to fall either. On the other hand, if Korean equities fall meaningfully, NDF points may retrace, as smaller notional exposure to Korean equities by foreigners (either direct or leveraged) would reduce the associated FX hedging.

On FX spot, it is much harder to see sustained equity inflow in the short term: If Samsung/Hynix continue to lead KOSPI higher, equity rebalancing related outflow would further dominate; if equities fall, broad-based outflow is likely to follow which is likely to offset the positive FX impact from unwind of RHS hedging. Only when equities fall substantially so that Samsung & Hynix’s market cap fall under the concentration limits, a recovery from there may attract inflows.

Thus equity outflow may continue to weigh on KRW in the near future.

As market unwinds debasement trades and USD remains resilient, Goldman expects USDKRW may further rise gradually, with authorities’ various smoothing efforts help to limit the speed of KRW depreciation. Although Korean exporter USD selling is expected to rise as export grows organically and domestic capex expands, given current exporter conversion is already relatively high, Goldman expects large and volatile equity related flows to remain dominant for USDKRW path ahead. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 00:41

Nancy Pelosi Institute To Launch At UC Berkeley After Former Speaker Leaves Congress

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will lend her name to a new institute at the University of California, Berkeley after retiring from Congress, with the university announcing it has already raised $35 million toward a $50 million fundraising goal.

The Nancy Pelosi Institute for Representative Democracy is scheduled to open in January 2027, when Pelosi is expected to leave Congress.

According to the university, the institute will serve as a center for research, teaching and civic engagement focused on representative democracy and public leadership. Pelosi also is expected to co-teach a course on Congress.

UC Berkeley said the institute will focus on four primary areas: strengthening American democracy, addressing major social, economic and environmental challenges, promoting human and civil rights, and "ensuring political leadership that represents the full spectrum of perspectives and backgrounds in California and the country."

The university said the institute's location at UC Berkeley would give a diverse student body, including first-generation and low-income students, access to opportunities often associated with Ivy League institutions.

"The work of democracy is never finished, and securing its future is our greatest calling," Pelosi said in a statement. "UC Berkeley has a long, proud history of challenging the status quo and producing leaders who run toward the greatest challenges of our time. I am honored to partner with this exceptional community of scholars and students so we can equip the next generation with the tools they need to strengthen our democratic institutions and forge a future that serves the public good."

UC Berkeley Chancellor Rich Lyons said the institute would combine the university's faculty and students to advance its mission.

"We intend to do more than simply study democracy; we are building this institute to strengthen it," Lyons said.

The institute will be established at UC Berkeley, a university known for progressive activism, and will open after Pelosi concludes her congressional career.

Pelosi, 86, served two terms as House speaker and remains the only woman to hold the position. She served from 2007 to 2011 and again from 2019 to 2023.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 19:30

Meet The "World's Most Dangerous" Hotel That Leaves Guests Stranded 35 Miles Offshore

A remote former Coast Guard tower off the coast of North Carolina has become one of the country's most unusual vacation destinations, with thrill-seekers paying to spend days stranded 35 miles out in the Atlantic on what's been dubbed the world's most dangerous hotel, according to the NY Post.

Interest in Frying Pan Tower recently surged after charter captain Austin Aycock posted a TikTok showing six guests being dropped off at the rusting structure before he motored away, joking, "See you in a couple days!" The video has attracted more than 2.2 million views, with viewers split between fascination and disbelief.

(Photos: NY Post)

Built in 1964, the decommissioned light station sits about 80 feet above the ocean in an area known as the "Graveyard of the Atlantic." Once guests arrive, there's no easy way back. Leaving requires either a helicopter or a 35-mile boat ride to shore.

The Post writes that rates start at about $200 per person per night with a three-night minimum stay. Aycock said one particularly adventurous group remained on the tower for two weeks.

The location isn't for the faint of heart. The surrounding waters are home to great white, bull, and tiger sharks, while the tower sits in hurricane-prone waters where storms can bring winds exceeding 100 mph. Medical emergencies also present a challenge due to the remote location.

(Photos: NY Post)

Despite its isolation, the tower can accommodate up to 12 guests across eight bedrooms and offers modern comforts including solar power, high-speed internet, hot showers, a fully equipped kitchen, and a reverse osmosis water system.

Visitors can fish, snorkel over a nearby reef, shoot biodegradable clay targets, or hit fish-food golf balls into the ocean. A professional chef is also available for private groups, while the massive helipad doubles as a scenic spot for stargazing and watching the sunrise.

The viral video sparked plenty of reactions online. Some commenters said nothing could convince them to stay overnight, while others joked the tower would be the perfect place to hide from a zombie apocalypse. One viewer summed up the skepticism by asking, "What's the opposite of a bucket list?"

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 19:05

Copper Demand Surges, But Supply Deficit Is Hard To Solve, Expert Says

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

The ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom underscores a harder-to-resolve supply issue for copper, according to veteran natural resource investor Rick Rule.

Speaking recently with Siyamak Khorrami, host of EpochTV’s “Market Insider,” Rule said the increasingly energy-intensive lives people around the world are living have pushed up demand for copper. With companies and countries investing heavily in AI, future demand for the red metal will be “staggering,” he said.

At the same time, the world, especially the United States, doesn’t have enough copper development projects “in the pipeline,” Rule said, making a copper shortage and higher prices inevitable.

Growing Supply Deficit

According to the International Copper Study Group, global refined copper consumption rose to 28.2 million metric tons in 2025 from 25.8 million metric tons in 2022, while production increased to 28.6 million metric tons from 25.2 million metric tons over the same period. This represents a supply surplus of 400,000 metric tons.

However, given the essential role copper plays in electrification, digitalization, and technologies such as AI, data centers, electric vehicles, and defense, a January S&P Global study predicts that demand for the metal will rise to 42 million metric tons by 2040. The study also estimates that, without “meaningful supply expansion,” there could be a copper shortfall of about 10 million metric tons by then.

Copper prices have risen significantly. Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $6.20 per pound on June 28, nearly doubling from their post-pandemic low of $3.23 per pound, reached on July 11, 2022.

The situation is more challenging for the United States. The country is a net copper importer, producing less than half of the refined copper it consumes. According to the United States Geological Survey, a scientific agency under the Department of the Interior, America produced 850,000 metric tons of refined copper in 2025 while consuming 2.2 million metric tons, resulting in a deficit of more than 1 million metric tons.

The United States is expected to remain a net importer of copper through 2040, with imported refined copper projected to account for about 70 percent of consumption, according to a June 23 SEC filing citing Wood Mackenzie data.

In November 2025, the Department of the Interior added copper to the U.S. Geological Survey’s critical minerals list.

Underinvestment

“In copper, we have been systemically underinvested in exploration, in construction, in development, and we’ve been doing so for 30 years,” Rule told Khorrami.

“This is a capital-intensive, long-term business. There is nothing we can do right now—nothing, not one thing—that will prevent a supply shortage within five years.”

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025—Copper

Rule said developing a new copper mine is a very long process, taking about 10 years to explore and find a mine, three years to drill, three more years “in a good country” to secure a permit and funding, and two years to build—about 18 years in total.

“The difficulty is that people weren’t doing enough of this 18 years ago,” he said.

Wood Mackenzie estimated in a 2021 analysis that the world copper industry had committed around $120 billion in capital spending to maintain production at the time, offsetting the impact of grade decline and depletion.

“Nonetheless, without additional substantial investment, production will decline from 2024 onwards. Coupled with demand growth, this decline in output will lead to a theoretical shortfall of around [16 million metric tons] by 2040,” the analysis states. To close the copper supply shortfall, the analysis said, the industry would need about $325 billion in additional investment.

“The industry is looking right down the barrel at an incredible capital spend to merely maintain current production levels, never mind increase it to meet the demands of rural electrification in the third world, data centers, electric vehicles, the electrification of everything,” Rule said.

“If you believe the numbers that people like Google and Amazon are putting out in terms of their data center demands, we will need to produce more copper between 2026 and 2050—24 short years—than has been mined in the history of mankind,” he said.

Rule said the industry has entered a copper construction cycle.

“For a long time, when copper was languishing at $3 a pound, the industry didn’t make enough money to build new mines; $6 a pound is not a bad incentive price.”

Permitting Hurdles

However, he said there are currently few construction-ready projects due to decades of underinvestment in mineral exploration. In the United States, he added, the permitting process is a major hurdle for these projects to move forward.

For example, Rule said the Resolution Copper project, jointly owned by Australian mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP and located in Arizona, is a high-quality copper deposit and well-located, but has been waiting more than a decade for a permit.

According to Rio Tinto’s website, if developed, the Resolution Copper project could be one of the largest copper mines in the United States, having the potential to supply up to one-quarter of the U.S. copper demand.

After decades of exploration, the Resolution deposit was officially discovered in 1995, according to the Department of Agriculture. It started the permitting process in 2013 and released its independent Final Environmental Impact Statement in 2019, entering a new phase of public consultation, according to a Rio Tinto press release. The company said in a March release that it had completed a key land exchange advancing the project toward development.

“All of this points to the fact that we’re going to have to get used to higher copper prices,” Rule said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 17:50

Man Who Sued Pepsi Over Fighter Jet Finally Gets His Reward 30 Years Later

Three decades after suing Pepsi for refusing to give him a fighter jet, John Leonard finally got a reward that may be even better, according to a post at Supercarblondie. 

Leonard became the center of one of advertising's most famous legal battles after taking a 1996 Pepsi commercial at face value. The ad, promoting the company's Pepsi Points loyalty program, jokingly claimed customers could redeem seven million Pepsi Points for a military Harrier jet.

Rather than laugh it off, the Seattle college student raised enough money to buy the required points and submitted a claim for the aircraft. Pepsi rejected it, insisting the jet was never a real prize.

The article says that the case went to court, where a judge ruled that no reasonable person would believe Pepsi was seriously offering a fighter jet in a soft drink promotion.

Although Leonard lost the lawsuit, the bizarre dispute became legendary and was later chronicled in the Netflix documentary Pepsi, Where's My Jet?.

Now, nearly 30 years later, Frontier Airlines gave the story a happy ending. As part of a Super Bowl campaign called "The Big Redemption," the airline converted Leonard's original seven million Pepsi Points into seven million Frontier Miles, effectively giving him free flights for life.

The airline even featured Leonard in a tongue-in-cheek commercial, handing him the keys to an Airbus A320neo as a nod to the decades-old saga.

Now in his 50s with a wife and children, Leonard joked that unlimited airline miles are far more practical than owning and maintaining a military fighter jet. After waiting three decades, he never got the Harrier, but he may have received an even better prize.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 17:25

20-Year Old US Citizen Charged In Israel With Spying For Iran

Via The Cradle

A 20-year-old US citizen living in Jerusalem is set to be charged with spying for Iran, according a police statement issued Tuesday, ahead of the individual’s indictment. 

The US citizen was detained by Israeli authorities on June 9, but the case is only this week being revealed. Israel's police say he maintained contact with an Iranian intelligence-linked handler. According to the police, he captured photographs and videos of "sensitive" Israeli sites.

Getty Images

The statement also claimed he received "dozens to hundreds" of dollars for each task he carried out on behalf of Iranian intelligence. The suspect’s activities were being carried out in the past few months, according to the authorities. 

A prosecutor’s declaration was filed against the US citizen on Tuesday. He will be officially charged with espionage in the near future.

Israeli police are requesting that the alleged Iran-linked spy remain imprisoned until legal proceedings conclude.

Israel has witnessed a major surge in Iranian espionage activity over the past year. Early last month, Tel Aviv indicted one Israeli citizen and three soldiers for cooperating with Iranian intelligence services and carrying out espionage work, including capturing photos of “sensitive sites.”

The intelligence activity reportedly included photographing train stations, shopping centers, security cameras, and the Israeli Air Force Technical School.

Hebrew media reports from May said some of the accused independently approached their Iranian handlers requesting additional missions.

Israeli outlets had also reported in late April that two Israeli Air Force technicians who were operating at the Tel Nof Air Base near the city of Ashdod were set to be charged with espionage for Iran.

By April, over 50 indictments had been filed against Israeli citizens accused of spying for the Islamic Republic since October 2023, according to Mondoweiss.

Security analysts and commentators in Israel have described the situation as an "espionage epidemic" fueled by public distrust of political leadership, corruption, and general discontent among Israelis.

Recent cases in 2026 alone include an Iron Dome reservist accused of passing system details for $1,000, multiple active-duty soldiers charged with espionage, and a thwarted plot to assassinate former prime minister Naftali Bennett.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 17:00

Apple Negotiating To Buy Blacklisted Chinese Chips To Ease AI-Driven Shortage

After raising prices on their entire product line last week as much as 50% thanks to "unsustainable" input costs from the memory cartel (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron and Sandisk), Apple is in active negotiations to buy memory chips from two Chinese semiconductor manufacturers on the Pentagon's blacklist, aiming to diversify supply and mitigate the impact of sharply rising component costs triggered by surging AI demand.

Adding to Friday reporting from the Financial Times, Bloomberg now reports that the iPhone maker is seeking chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a major DRAM producer, and Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), a fast-growing NAND flash maker. The components would be used exclusively in devices sold in China, where Apple already offers market-specific models. The talks are ongoing and not yet finalized, according to people familiar with the matter.

This was the logical next step... 

*APPLE SHARES CLOSE DOWN 6.1% IN BIGGEST DROP SINCE APRIL 2025

China's memory makers are waiting by the phone

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 25, 2026

This move would expand Apple's memory supplier base from its current three - Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology - to five. It comes after Apple raised prices across its Mac, iPad, and other product lines last week to offset what it described as an unprecedented surge in memory and storage costs. A company spokesperson attributed the increases to the "rapid expansion of AI," noting the firm had "never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly."

The global memory shortage stems from hyperscale data-center operators prioritizing high-end memory for AI training and inference workloads. This has pulled production capacity toward premium segments, driving up prices for the DRAM and NAND used in consumer electronics. Microsoft took similar action last week, raising Xbox console prices for the third time in 13 months, largely due to the same memory squeeze.

The Apple news was the straw that broke the memory's back: chip stocks had already gotten whacked on Wednesday amid a momentum-meltdown sparked by news that Meta would pivot to a cloud business to sell excess compute from its overpriced collection of data centers, effectively become a neocloud, while capitulating on hopes to build a leading frontier model. 

Aaaand Micron is now below its 20-day moving average for the first time since April...

It's not clear what happens next. Both CXMT and YMTC appear on the Defense Department's 1260H list of Chinese companies believed to have ties to the People's Liberation Army. YMTC has carried an additional Commerce Department Entity List designation since 2022, which generally bars it from receiving U.S. technology without special licenses.

That said, Apple does not require formal U.S. government approval to proceed with purchases - though adding the two firms to its supply chain carries significant political risk amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions over advanced technology. Apple CEO Tim Cook has appealed directly to Trump administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, to help manage potential backlash from national security hawks in Washington. Some officials within the administration have expressed objections to giving Apple leeway on the matter.

To limit exposure, Apple is structuring any deal around devices sold only in China rather than global models. The company previously explored sourcing memory from YMTC in 2022 for China-market iPhones, but that effort was abandoned after strong opposition from U.S. lawmakers and officials concerned about supply-chain security.

In short - the memory market has been reshaped by AI infrastructure spending. Major producers have shifted output toward high-margin products demanded by data centers, leaving tighter supply and higher prices for mobile and computing applications. Samsung and SK Hynix have outlined massive capacity expansions, while Micron is investing heavily in U.S. production - but meaningful relief for consumer electronics remains months away.

For Apple, securing additional sources could help stabilize costs on China sales and reduce reliance on the dominant trio of suppliers. For policymakers, the episode highlights a recurring tension: balancing efforts to secure critical technology supply chains against the immediate economic pressure of higher consumer prices driven by concentrated global demand.

Any agreement would likely draw scrutiny from Congress and administration hardliners who view partnerships with firms on the 1260H list as contrary to U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese technology. At the same time, the memory-driven component inflation has become visible enough that some officials may see limited, geographically restricted sourcing as a pragmatic pressure valve.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 16:40

Controversially, The Supreme Court Rules For Common Sense: Taibbi

Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

From Mother Jones yesterday:

The science is far from settled about whether trans girls who have received gender-affirming treatment actually have a competitive advantage or pose a greater risk of injuring other players. But the majority opinion, by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, glosses over those unknowns - reasoning that "biological sex" is a good enough proxy for athletic ability for states to categorically ban trans girls from girls' sports.

It was once uncontroversial to observe that testosterone gives athletes advantages. Baseball's steroid scandals were only a tick of the historical clock ago, and the number of people in the continental United States willing to stand up and say Mark McGwire and Raffy Palmeiro hit their own homers would have fit in a dentist's waiting room. Every working comedian in the country made at least one joke about balloon-headed liar Barry Bonds:

This was universal, but once the trans issue with its myriad lifestyle and political considerations came along, the general public was suddenly asked to accept one factual absurdity after another about the same thing. "Far from settled!" Really, Mother Jones?

The Supreme Court Tuesday handed down a landmark 6-3 ruling in West Virginia v. BPJ and Little v. Hecox, upholding two state bans on the participation of transgender athletes on women's and girls' sports teams. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who wrote the majority opinion, used strong language in upholding West Virginia and Idaho statutes, saying the court disagreed that "schools must allow biological males... to compete on girls' sports teams." Kavanaugh even used a hated term, asking, "May schools determine eligibility for women's and girls' sports based on biological sex? The answer is yes," upsetting pundits who want officials to stick to activist-approved phrases like "sex assigned at birth."

"It's a good decision for women and girls," said Kara Dansky, who wrote an amicus brief supporting the states for the U.S. chapter of the Women's Declaration International.

Dansky was once senior counsel for the ACLU Center of Justice. In this case she was on the other side of the ACLU, whose attorneys (including co-director of LGBTQ and HIV rights, Chase Strangio) argued against the state bans. The ACLU has also split with former feminist allies by arguing for the housing of biological men in women's prisons, including those with records of violent sex offenses. These efforts in trying to force society to reimagine biology are clearly failing, but the outraged reaction yesterday shows the fight isn't over. NBC described the decision as a "major blow to LGBTQ rights," and former VP contender Tim Walz claimed the "Supreme Court says schools can be cruel to my trans kids":

As the Supreme Court says states can be cruel to trans kids, my message is clear: Here in Minnesota, we stand with and value our trans neighbors and youth.

— Governor Tim Walz (@GovTimWalz) June 30, 2026

Cruel is an extraordinary word to describe the act of allowing states to object to a radical social program that was implemented virtually everywhere ahead of both scientific and (especially) political consensus. The numbers aren't close. A New York Times/Ipsos poll last year found 79% of Americans, including 67% of Democrats, are opposed to "athletes who were male at birth" participating in women's sports. The same poll found 71% of all Americans, including 54% of Democrats, believe no one under 18 should have access to puberty blockers. This was after exposure to years of movement messaging.

Strangio and the ACLU don't see that they're asking for something people can't give them, even if they wanted to, namely the honest belief that people who've transitioned have literally changed sexes. The gambit failed for the same reason Spanish speakers rejected "Latinx."

Like politics, language has a democratic dynamic. If people don't use Latinx because Spanish (like 38% of all languages) is a gendered tongue with its own distinct sonic system that Spanish speakers love, they won't use it, and you can't make them. The ostensible logic behind Latinx was to "challenge the gender binary" and "remove gender from Spanish," in part because a handful of intellectuals claim gendered language causes unequal economic outcomes. A rational person finds this absurd, unless you believe the early French schemed to consign bananas to girlhood while making boys out of tuna as a weirdly subtle means of oppressing women in future centuries.

As with Latinx, activists tried to lobby "sex assigned at birth" into reality, only to have the population spit it back out as "biological sex." The court just recognized another thing that was uncontroversial until ten minutes ago. Yes, a small percentage of human beings have intersex characterstics, but most of the world's population can't be forced to unlearn what it intrinsically knows. Knowing which gametes your body cranks out is another form of "lived experience," one is irrelevant to activists, apparently, because it's "normative." People know they weren't "assigned" a sex by hospital clerks. Some people tried to think that way. It just didn't take.

Activists could have started with a proposition: given that sex is binary, what can society do to accomodate people who experience dysphoria and wish to live under a new identity? The same Americans who accepted gay marriage fairly quickly after Obergefell v. Hodges 11 years ago likely would have extended as far as they could without jumping into a factual or scientific abyss, on issues ranging from expanded insurance to easier routes to housing or identification. Instead, activists treated access for biological males to women's locker rooms, sports rosters, even prisons as settled rights matters, against which only right-wing Christian patriarchal bigots could possibly object. Unless 80% of Americans are bigots, a lot of apologies are owed: 

None are coming, of course. 

Subscribers to Racket can read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 16:20

The Elephant In The Room That Is Fraud

Authored by Jack Hellner via AmericanThinker.com,

There has clearly been trillions of fraud over the last several decades, and politicians in both parties have shown very little interest in rooting out the fraud until Trump. Somehow, most of the media and other Democrats aren’t too concerned with saving taxpayer dollars—they spend their time attacking Trump.

The media and other Democrats were outraged when Trump spent $16 million dollars fixing the reflecting pool problems, and there was endless reporting, but there is virtually no outrage and minimal reporting on the endless fraud, no matter how many billions have been legitimately stolen from the taxpayers.

The following is a small sample of what crooks have gotten away with, which is only the tip of the iceberg.

Federal data revealed this:

In 2024, 35 percent of exchange enrollees and 40 percent of fully-subsidized low-income enrollees generated no medical claims….

Tens of billions went to big insurance companies to pay for many fake people. Yet, as Democrats shuttered the government, almost all the media spewed were intentional lies about how Republicans wanted to take health care away from the poor, and premiums would rise substantially for them.

The media didn’t have much interest when an enterprising young reporter found massive fraud in daycare centers in Minnesota. They also didn’t have any concern when we learned Governor Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison knew about the fraud for a long time and instead of going after the criminals, sought to destroy the whistleblowers.

Here is how PBS reported on the story:

This week, the Trump administration dispatched federal officers to Minnesota amid concerns over fraud. The deployment comes after a right-wing influencer posted a video claiming, without proof, that daycare centers operated by Somali residents in Minneapolis had misappropriated more than $100 million.

Hospice fraud in California is massive. Where is the endless reporting by the media? Why aren’t they concerned that Governor Newsom and other officials did little to nothing about it? They also don’t seem interested in how many millions of taxpayer dollars flow to entities associated with Newsom’s wife. Instead, they attack the Justice Department for investigating the obvious.

A huge amount of fraud was found with a small sample of SNAP recipients, yet this news piece seems aggravated at the Trump administration for doing something about it:

The USDA says 700,000 were removed from SNAP. Here’s what counts as fraud.

Multiple studies have found that SNAP fraud is rare, yet the Trump administration continues to place heavy focus on the issue.

In May, Rollins told Fox News that her department had found around 700,000 people fraudulently using SNAP rolls since February 2025 and arrested 895 people in the past year for fraud. She said 244,000 fraudsters used dead people’s social security numbers and 500,000 collected benefits in multiple states.

Here is a story that got little coverage about health care fraud schemes. You would think that with all the worries about Medicare survival that an arrest of around 450 people in 45 states would get extensive coverage, but it doesn’t.

New: Record Healthcare Fraud Bust: 450 Defendants Now Charged by Trump DOJ

How often is this happening throughout the country?

What about this?

Michigan childcare provider collected $1.1M in taxpayer funds despite no visible signs of operating

Where are the administrators we pay for verifying that daycare providers do in fact qualify for the money?

The media clearly has little interest in reporting on fraud perpetrated by illegals:

Illegal Alien Gets 8 Years in Prison for $89 Million Payroll Scheme Employing Illegal Alien Construction Workers

I bet few people saw this story about all the money funneled out during COVID:

NC Tax Preparer Pleads Guilty in $13.9M COVID-19 Fraud Scheme

Seven other return preparers have already pleaded guilty to their roles in the same scheme. 

The media is working hard to avoid the story about how we chased down a Somalian fraudster after he fled the country:

$250 Million Minnesota Fraudster Finally Nabbed — in Mogadishu 

Every once in a while, the media and other Democrats claim to care about debts and deficits, but they clearly don’t when they refuse to help going after fraud and treat every cut or freeze in government spending programs as a disaster.

The only time they really care about deficits is when they falsely claim that Republican tax cuts cost the government trillions of dollars.

Here is the truth about federal income and spending:

Individual income taxes collected FY 2017 $1.5 trillion. By FY 2025, they were up to $2.66 trillion—up more than double the 35% inflation rate for that period. Corporate income taxes in FY 2017 were $297 billion and in FY 2025, they were $452 billion (or up 52%). 

Meanwhile, spending went up from $3.98 trillion to $7.20 trillion—up 77%, which is more than double the rate of inflation. Uncontrolled spending including massive fraud is clearly the problem.

Is our media on it? Hardly.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 15:45

TikTok Settles Lawsuit Accusing Social Media Giants Of Harming Florida Boy

TikTok has reached a settlement with a Florida teenager who blamed the platform and other social media companies for fueling his addiction, leading to depression, anxiety, and sleep loss, just ahead of a trial to determine the industry’s part in the youth mental health crisis.

The settlement, made public Tuesday, lays to rest claims against ByteDance’s TikTok related to the lawsuit filed by the boy.

Details of the settlement were not disclosed.

Trials against Meta’s Instagram and Snap’s Snapchat remain scheduled for July in California.

According to court filings, the plaintiff argues he began using social media at approximately age 8 and became addicted.

As Kimberley Hayek reports for The Epoch Times, the case is one of many taking aim at social media companies, accusing them of designing the platforms to addict young users.

Earlier this month, YouTube settled with the same plaintiff.

“YouTube’s decision to resolve this case before having to face a jury speaks for itself,” the plaintiff’s attorneys from Morgan & Morgan stated in that settlement.

“We will continue fighting on behalf of all those affected by social media addiction to bring these companies to justice and compel them to prioritize the safety of their young users over their bottom lines.”

In March, a jury in Los Angeles found Meta and Google liable for harms to a young woman, awarding damages after findings of negligence tied to addictive design features.

Jurors found the platforms contributed to addiction and mental health issues, leading to millions in compensatory and punitive damages. A judge upheld the verdict this month.

More than 3,300 addiction-related lawsuits remain pending in California state court, with thousands more pending in federal court. School districts and states have also pursued claims, with some settlements reached, such as a Kentucky district’s agreement with several platforms.

The TikTok settlement allows the company to avoid what would have been only the second individual trial of its kind in California over social media’s impact on minors.

Plaintiffs in these cases argue that features, such as endless scrolling, personalized algorithms, and notifications create a “vicious cycle” of engagement that does harm to young brains.

Tech companies argue they have implemented parental controls, age-appropriate tools, and other safeguards for young users. Google, for instance, has underscored its safety efforts in statements regarding the YouTube settlement.

“Our focus remains on building age-appropriate products and parental controls that deliver on that promise,” Google spokesman José Castañeda said in a statement. 

Prolonged social media use has increased risks of depression and self-harm among young people, according to a recent study by the Medical Journal of Australia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 15:25

House Dems Launch Effort To Impeach Secretary Linda McMahon For Downsizing Education Department

Authored by Jennifer Kabanny via The College Fix,

A Democratic representative from Oregon, backed by numerous fellow lawmakers in the House, has filed articles of impeachment against Education Department Secretary Linda McMahon, alleging she is illegally dismantling the U.S. Department of Education.

Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici introduced the resolution last Thursday, arguing “I introduced an impeachment resolution because Secretary McMahon has made it her mission to close down the Department of Education, something she does not have the right to do.”

The legislation is cosponsored by 16 fellow Democrats, according to a news release from Bonamici’s office.

“Since taking office McMahon has unlawfully ordered the transfer of at least five offices and their multiple programs to other agencies – all without the consent of Congress,” it states.

“Congress created the Department of Education and only Congress can dismantle it. These transfers essentially gut the Department of Education and obstruct the Department’s ability to conduct statutory oversight and disburse Federal funds appropriated by Congress through its authority under Article I of the United States Constitution.”

The resolution came shortly after it was announced the Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights duties will shift to the Justice Department and its special education office to the Department of Health and Human Services.

McMahon clapped back at the impeachment effort in a post on X.

It speaks volumes that House Democrats think an impeachable offense is working to improve student outcomes and reduce the federal bureaucracy. They must not be bothered by chronic failures of our education system that result in historic low test scores, a failed FAFSA form… https://t.co/OMkrpvdqoz

— Secretary Linda McMahon (@EDSecMcMahon) June 17, 2026

“It speaks volumes that House Democrats think an impeachable offense is working to improve student outcomes and reduce the federal bureaucracy,” she posted.

“They must not be bothered by chronic failures of our education system that result in historic low test scores, a failed FAFSA form rollout, classrooms shuttered during COVID, designating parents as terrorists, and males in female locker rooms.”

“Washington spends billions of taxpayer dollars annually—having spent more than $3 trillion since the Department of Education was established in 1980—yet just one-third of children can read proficiently.”

According to Higher Ed Dive, “Bonamici’s legislation isn’t likely to go far in a Republican-controlled Congress. So far, Rep. Tim Walberg, the Republican chair of the House’s education committee, called the move ‘political theater’ in a statement shared with media.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 13:05

Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Inventory Rebuild Won’t Prevent 2027 Supply Glut

The global race to rebuild depleted oil inventories will not be enough to offset a massive glut that’s coming to the market next year, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be headed toward normalization, according to Goldman Sachs commodity strategists.  

First, arguing the bullish side, stockpiles of crude and refined petroleum products in many parts of the world have been depleted to multi-decade lows after governments raced to release strategic stockpiles in March after the Middle East crisis trapped millions of barrels of daily crude and product flows in the Persian Gulf. These inventories will now have to be rebuilt - a process that’s likely to put a floor under oil prices, Oilprice reports..

In the United States alone, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been depleted to a 1983 low, while stocks at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI, have crumbled to operational-stress levels.

In addition, many countries, especially in Asia Pacific, are looking to build new reserve capacity to boost their energy security and never again be caught off-guard by a massive supply disruption like the one triggered by the closure of the most important oil and LNG chokepoint.

But Goldman Sachs takes the bearish side, and says that all these demand-supportive factors cannot erase the major glut coming next year. 

The investment bank expects the global oil surplus to be about 3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Wednesday.

“We do expect a little over 1 million barrels a day just of SPR rebuilding globally, but still, that would leave us close to 2 million barrels a day of a surplus,” Dart added.

Other Wall Street banks have also started to predict a glut next year after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to negotiate a peace deal.

Morgan Stanley, for example, has slashed its oil price forecasts for the next 18 months as it expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to accelerate a new supply glut.

More in Dart's latest note available to pro subscribers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 12:45

Elon's Next Move: Your Money

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

For years, Elon Musk has dreamed of turning X (formerly Twitter) into the “everything app”.

Now that X is part of SpaceX (SPCX), and the combined company just raised $112 billion, the time looks ripe.

Elon envisions X as a single place where you can bank, chat, earn, advertise, use AI, shop, and more.

X Money is a key part of that vision. And we just got the first idea of what it will look like.

The program just launched to a small group of users. To attract deposits, X is offering some pretty crazy (and likely temporary) perks:

• 6% APY on cash, no deposit limit

• 3% cash back on purchases (with exceptions)

• $10 million FDIC insurance (by splitting deposits up between banks)

A 6% yield is not sustainable long-term (at current interest rates). It’s a teaser rate to get people to switch to X Money. Same goes for 3% cash back. That’s 3x higher than the industry average, and will almost certainly not last long.

These teasers may get a lot of people to switch. But it’s unclear how long the perks will last, and it’s currently only available to a small group.

X is not a bank. At least not yet. It’s more like a “neobank”, which manages the marketing and customer relationship, while licensed banks handle the deposits.

But for the user, it feels like a bank account and debit card. Deposits, yield, wire transfers, autopay, P2P payments, etc.

The WeChat Model

Musk’s desire to build the “everything app” may have been inspired by China’s WeChat.

WeChat is owned by Chinese tech firm Tencent. It started out as a simple messaging app. But Tencent rapidly expanded its utility, and today it is basically a digital operating system for the country.

In China, WeChat is used for payment, invoices, government interactions, making appointments, videos, shopping, games, chatting on social media, and much more.

WeChat Pay holds a massive 38% share of payments in China. More than a billion people use the app. It’s so ubiquitous that many Chinese people essentially run their lives through the app.

Largely as a result of WeChat’s success, Tencent has become a $488 billion tech giant.

This is what Musk is aiming for. If X Money succeeds, it could help justify SpaceX’s lofty valuation of $2.2 trillion.

SpaceX’s Huge Ambitions

X (formerly Twitter) has been the least-discussed part of SpaceX.

All the attention has been on rockets and AI. For good reason. Those are both very exciting areas.

But X deserves attention as well. Musk aims to turn the social network into a super-app, much like WeChat. Musk purchased Twitter for $44 billion. If he succeeds, it could be worth much more over the long term.

But running what is essentially a combination bank and social network is no easy matter. For one thing, it makes security far more important (and challenging). It’s going to require a massive customer support team. And that’s one area where Elon’s X has struggled.

X Money is going to be a critical part of building the “everything app”. And the team is going big on the launch.

Think about the 6% APYs X is offering on deposits. Let’s say that X Money attracts $10 billion in deposits over the first year.

Paying a 6% yield on that much cash could cost SpaceX $240 million a year in losses. That’s assuming their own internal return on cash is around 3.5%, plus bank fees and other transaction costs. This is why I assume the 6% APY is temporary.

And the 3% cash back? That appears to be on a debit card, which doesn’t have the same fee support as a credit card. So that could be another very expensive tool to attract users.

But the losses could be worth it. The market they’re targeting is massive. Payments, banking, and eventually – everything.

So will X succeed in becoming a “super app”? Honestly? I think it’s a long shot.

X Money would probably need to be wildly successful and run away with the market.

One problem is that Meta/Facebook (META) will copy anything that looks to be working. The company is notorious for it. And they have a much larger user base. Meta also already has WhatsApp pay and several payment integrations with Facebook.

Another problem is that American banks are extremely profitable, and in some ways act like a cartel. They won’t appreciate X stepping onto their turf, and may fight back. With lawfare, lobbying, or other means.

A Beautiful But Difficult Model

The “everything app”, or the WeChat model has been the dream of every social media company in the world for a while. But it’s going to be very difficult to pull off at this stage of the game.

Then again, we should never count Elon out. If he’s going to go hard after this market, SpaceX certainly has a shot at winning it.

SpaceX just raised $87 billion in its IPO, then another $25 billion in bond sales. That is a massive war chest.

SPCX has big aspirations. And with a $2.2 trillion market cap, it has a lot of growing to do in order to justify that lofty price.

X Money is a calculated risk by SpaceX. One that could pay off big.

I don’t have a position in SpaceX, but it’s going to be fascinating to watch.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 12:25

Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros Ousts 15-Term Rep. Diana DeGette In Colorado Primary

As we've been noting of late, the Democrats have a problem: socialists are on the move. The latest - in a striking upset, democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated 15-term U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette in Tuesday's Democratic primary for Colorado's 1st Congressional District. The victory extends a recent winning streak for the party's left wing and hands Republicans fresh ammunition heading into the fall campaign.

Democratic socialist Melat Kiros (L) ousted 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette in Tuesday's Democratic primary

Kiros, a 29-year-old former attorney, defeated the 68-year-old incumbent who has represented the Denver-based seat since 1997. DeGette, a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, had long been viewed as secure in the solidly Democratic district. Kiros's win, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and the Democratic Socialists of America, came just one week after the DSA notched several high-profile primary victories in New York City.

The result is likely to intensify internal Democratic tensions. While party leaders sought to minimize last week's New York outcomes, Kiros's success in a Western swing state makes it harder to dismiss the pattern as a purely local phenomenon confined to deep-blue urban strongholds.

According to Axios, Dems are freaking out. 

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) was a staunch progressive, not a moderate, these members are privately fuming. So why did she become a target of the left?

•     "One more case in the growing dynamic of performative politics," one House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share candid analysis on the results, told Axios.
•     "Diana was an excellent representative with seniority — but the style of someone younger and more outspoken has become more attractive to that cohort of motivated urban left voters."
•     A senior House Democrat called the result a "wake-up call" for members of Congress

Kiros drew scrutiny during the campaign for a letter she wrote criticizing the view that calls for the elimination of Israel constitute antisemitism. Despite those comments, she built a strong coalition among younger, college-educated voters who have moved into the district in recent years. With most votes counted, she held a roughly four-point lead when major outlets called the race.

GOP strategists quickly framed the outcome as evidence that the party's left flank is expanding its influence beyond traditional strongholds, according to The Hill. A spokesperson for the House Republican campaign arm said the result showed "the socialist takeover of the Democrat Party is no longer confined to deep-blue strongholds," arguing it would complicate Democratic efforts to flip the House.

Other Anti-Incumbent Signals In Colorado

Voters delivered additional rebukes to establishment figures on Tuesday. In the Democratic primary for governor, state Attorney General Phil Weiser defeated U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, who had been considered the early frontrunner. Weiser, while a mainstream Democrat, ran an insurgent-style campaign that emphasized his record of suing the Trump administration 66 times and criticized Bennet for confirming some of President Trump's Cabinet nominees. He also portrayed the senator as too aligned with wealthy donors.

Bennet will keep his Senate seat and faces re-election in 2028.

In the U.S. Senate primary, Sen. John Hickenlooper successfully turned back a challenge from progressive state Sen. Julie Gonzales.

General Election Landscape Takes Shape

Tuesday's results also clarified several November matchups that could affect control of the House.

• Colorado's 1st District: Kiros is now the heavy favorite to hold the safely Democratic seat for her party.
• Colorado's 8th District: The contest remains one of the most competitive in the country. Vulnerable Republican Rep. Gabe Evans will face state Rep. Manny Rutinel, who won the Democratic primary. Cook Political Report rates the suburban Denver seat a toss-up.
• Colorado's 5th District: Army veteran Jessica Killin won the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Rep. Jeff Crank. The seat has trended left in recent presidential cycles, though it remains in Republican hands.

Democrats currently need a net gain of three seats to retake the House majority.

The Colorado results add to a growing body of evidence that primary voters in 2026 are rewarding candidates who position themselves as outsiders - whether on the left flank of the Democratic Party or as critics of Washington incumbents more broadly.

Colorado's results come on the heels of last week's Democratic primaries in New York City - which turned into a referendum on the Democratic Party itself. 

Three socialist-backed candidates, backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, won their races. The Democratic establishment got slaughtered, and the man left holding the wreckage is House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).

Every candidate Jeffries backed went down. That alone would be a bad night. What made it worse was the scene at the victory party for socialist-backed winner Claire Valdez, where the crowd erupted in boos when Jeffries's image appeared on screen, then broke into a chant: "You're next," a clear sign that his leadership position won't protect him from being a target of the Democratic Socialists of America Party.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 12:05

Is The SpaceX Asteroid About To Impact The TelCo & Cable Dinosaurs?

Authored by Simon Duff via BondVigilantes.com,

SpaceX’s IPO was a gargantuan event by any measure: US$75 billion proceeds raised, over US$2 trillion enterprise value, and an almost US$29 trillion total addressable market to feast on.  Few other companies can rival its industrial span and potential seismic impact on consumers and competitors.  SpaceX’s valuation is driven by its sci-fi AI segment replete with space-based data centres and moon bases.  However, its more immediate impact maybe felt in the more down to earth world of telecom.

SpaceX’s cash cow is the Connectivity segment where it operates a constellation of 9,600 low earth orbit (“LEO”) satellites under the Starlink brand. 

These provide broadband and in-fill mobile voice & data services to consumers in predominantly remote areas where terrestrial broadband and mobile networks are patchy or absent. 

In addition, Starlink offers broadband services to ships and aircraft where terrestrial networks are entirely absent. 

In 2025, the Connectivity unit generated US$3 billion free cash flow (EBITDA less capex) from almost 9 million broadband and over 6 million mobile global subscribers and from its corporate contracts with airlines and ship operators.  

By way of comparison, the 5 largest US telecom & cable players generated almost US$111bn free cash flow (EBITDA less capex) and had approximately 95m broadband subscribers and 275m mobile postpaid subscribers.  

Looking at those stats you would be forgiven for thinking that US telecom & cable operators don’t have all that much to worry about.  The problem is that this is just the beginning for controlling shareholder and CEO Musk who has proved himself a visionary with Olympian levels of ambition and matching access to capital.  

Using the latest and largest Starship rockets, Musk plans to launch 10,000 next generation V3 satellites from late 2026.  Each of these satellites will have 1 terabit of capacity, which is 10x the capacity of the current V2 satellites.  This ramped capacity will boost current median download speeds (225Mbps) to levels on a par with fibre and cable terrestrial alternatives.  It will also allow pricing to come down (vs the current US$66 average cost per month).  True, there are issues around the need for “line of sight” from the dish to the satellite in dense urban areas and practical difficulties around installation in multi dwelling unit (MDU) housing blocks.  But these are portions of the market and hence a break rather than a block on roll out and uptake. 

Obviously, the incumbent operators will not sit there like lemons waiting to be squeezed. Instead they can try to lock in their bases via converged broadband and mobile bundles, often at a discount (as both AT&T and Verizon’s recent offers implied).  Or they can simply cut their standalone broadband pricing.  Either way, the risk is broadband subscriber losses, or revenue per subscriber decline, or a combination of both.  And this would be in a market that no longer benefits from immigration or housing build tailwinds that historically increased the total available economic pie in the US.  Most exposed to this risk are the US’s dominant broadband providers: the cable operators. Both Comcast and Charter equity have fallen approx. 30% & 70% in the last year, respectively, with the pace of decline picking up notably as the SpaceX IPO bandwagon rolled into town. 

However, does Musk stop there? 

If we can think of an incumbent bundled defensive play then we are pretty darned sure that Musk can too. So how would he counter the incumbents’ counter?  In short, by going mobile. At present, the party line from the telecom operators is that Starlink’s “direct to device” (D2D) service is a pure complementary in-fill service to supplement mobile operators’ existing coverage and nothing more. However, their behaviour suggests otherwise.  All three players (Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile) have been clear that they will not offer Starlink a “virtual network” agreement enabling Musk to re-badge and re-sell their mobile service.

Similarly, all three were swift to announce a D2D JV that would enable them to present a united front to Starlink on future negotiations.

Assuming the US mobile players hold this line and are allowed to do so by regulators, then Starlink has two options if it’s serious about offering mobile beyond remote areas: build or buy a terrestrial network.  To build its own mobile network Starlink would need spectrum and terrestrial infrastructure (towers, fibre backhaul, network radios).  Starlink already has access to 65 Mhz of terrestrial spectrum (different from the spectrum it uses to offer broadband) that was acquired from Echostar.  Although dwarfed by the incumbents’ spectrum holdings, Starlink’s network would be relatively empty and upcoming auctions offer the chance to supplement these holdings.   Furthermore, Echostar (a 3% SpaceX shareholder) could play a complementary role as either an acquisition target or partner that brings with it a range of network related assets/agreements that could facilitate a Starlink mobile network roll out. Not least of which is a multi-year AT&T national roaming deal that AT&T has been tight-lipped on confirming or denying a change of control break clause to prevent Starlink exploiting this valuable contract.   

And Echostar is not the only option.  When Musk was recently asked if he could consider buying Verizon he said that “it was not out of the question”.  To be clear, Verizon’s market capitalisation is less than 10% of SpaceX’s and also brings with it valuable FCF (YE25: US$20bn).  Lastly, we don’t think it is any co-incidence that the rumour mill has been spinning with regard to German incumbent Deutsche Telekom buying out its 54% owned subsidiary, T-Mobile USA.  If Musk is going to be on a shopping spree you probably want to own 100% of what he might want to buy and T-Mobile USA offers the best mobile network, deepest mobile spectrum portfolio and the least “redundant” broadband exposure of all the US players.  Unfortunately AT&T is probably overly endowed in this latter area with 38m fibre homes passed and hence unlikely to be of interest to SpaceX.   All in all, we see the potential for a single mobile player being acquired as cold comfort to the US telcos relative to the potential step change in the competitive dynamic across the broader ecosystem. 

And who is best insulated from all this potential disruption? 

From an industrial perspective, towers look well positioned. 

If the US goes to four networks, demand for space on the towers will increase whilst, if SpaceX acquires an incumbent, tower demand should at least remain steady no matter how squeezed the incumbent operators’ margins become.

From a geographical perspective, a combination of Europe’s lower pricing from years of fierce competition & regulation, SpaceX’s lack of terrestrial spectrum, and Europe’s higher urban and MDU density make it a much harder market to attack.

Ironically, European telcos that have long played second fiddle to their US counterparts on competitive dynamics, growth rates and FCF generation might now heave a sigh of relief and actually be thankful for the harsh regulation and competitive dynamics they previously railed against.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 11:45

Miller: Every Single Haitian Migrant Is Going Back To Haiti Under Trump

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

White House Homeland Security Adviser Stephen Miller delivered a clear and forceful message: every Haitian national on Temporary Protected Status will be returned to Haiti under President Trump.

The Biden administration's last-year extension of TPS turned what began as a short-term response to a 2010 earthquake into a permanent pipeline. Miller called the deliberate importation of these migrants into places like Springfield, Ohio, one of the most heinous acts the government has ever committed.

Miller laid it out without hedging:

Stephen Miller: "The illegal alien Haitians are going back to Haiti. They can build their country there."
pic.twitter.com/l56e2Tu5fH

— Defiant L's (@DefiantLs) June 30, 2026

"There's an earthquake in Haiti. So she's (Former DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano) announcing TPS for a few months while they're recovering from an earthquake. That was in 2010, 15 years ago. Then the Biden administration in its last year extends TPS to every single illegal alien from Haiti while they are flying them en masse into Springfield, Ohio, across the Midwest."

He continued, "It was a formal policy of replacing the communities that lived in, settled, and sustained these communities for generations. It was one of the most heinous things this government has ever done."

"And yes, under President Trump, let me be very clear, the illegal alien Haitians are going back to Haiti. They can build their country there," Miller further urged.

This directly follows the Trump administration's earlier termination of TPS protections for 353,000 Haitians, with those designations set to expire.

The move reversed Biden-era renewals that kept hundreds of thousands in the country long after any temporary justification had passed.

Springfield became the most visible example of the fallout. Local residents watched as federal policies funneled large numbers of Haitian migrants into their city, straining housing, schools, and public resources.

Stephen Miller says every single Haitian on temporary protected status is going back

He says The Biden Admin specifically imported them into Ohio to replace the native population and "It was one of the most heinous things this government has ever done"

"There's an earthquake in... pic.twitter.com/4mfehuGJkM

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) June 30, 2026

Americans reported being priced out of apartments while migrants received housing assistance.

Parks saw geese and other wildlife targeted. In one city commission meeting, Springfield City Manager Brian Heck admitted he had "heard about" reports of Haitian migrants eating pets.

The conditions many of these migrants left behind in Haiti only underscore why prolonged TPS extensions made little sense. Armed gangs, including groups with documented histories of extreme violence and intimidation tactics, have dominated large parts of the country.

Earlier coverage highlighted how some media outlets appeared more exercised by conservatives simply stating these facts than by the violence itself.

In a separate but related immigration development today, the Supreme Court issued a 5-4 ruling striking down President Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship for children born to illegal immigrants.

BREAKING: In a 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship for children born to illegal immigrants in the United States. pic.twitter.com/XZDld7UkxT

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 30, 2026

The decision keeps in place a policy that automatically grants U.S. citizenship to children born on American soil regardless of their parents' legal status.

Critics have long argued this creates powerful incentives for unlawful entry and serves as a form of chain migration that complicates enforcement.

One of the most destructive and outrageous decisions in the long history of the Supreme Court. American citizenship is not the birthright of the world. It belongs only and solely to Americans. No provision of the Constitution can be read to require our national self-obliteration. https://t.co/qZuwzZq5tr

— Stephen Miller (@StephenM) June 30, 2026

The 14th Amendment's citizenship clause was crafted in the aftermath of slavery to secure rights for freed people, not to function as a standing invitation for foreign nationals to secure citizenship for their offspring through illegal presence.

While the birthright ruling hands open-border advocates a victory and adds another layer of legal friction to enforcement, Miller's remarks show the administration is not pausing on other fronts.

TPS designations were always meant to be temporary. Extending them for 15 years while actively importing large numbers into specific American communities was never about humanitarian relief - it was about demographic engineering.

American towns like Springfield paid the price in drastically altered neighborhoods, and lost quality of life. Restoring the original meaning of temporary protection and returning those without ongoing legal status is not radical. It is the baseline responsibility of any government that puts its own citizens first.

The message from the White House is consistent: the replacement experiment is over. Those here under expired or terminated protections are going home.

Haiti's future will be built by Haitians in Haiti, not by continuing to offload its population onto American communities that never asked for the burden.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 11:05

Russia Closes Border Crossings With Several NATO States After Finland Lifts Nuclear Ban

Finland's parliament has finally followed through with a previously threatened move to reverse its decades-long ban on nuclear weapons. The June 17 vote to lift the ban in effect legally authorizes the Nordic country to receive, transport, and facilitate the movement of nuclear weapons on its territory as part of allied operations, with the representatives' final tally at 125 to 61.

Finland officially became the 31st member of NATO in April 2023 - having abandoned its historic neutrality in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in what was among the fastest accession processes in the Western military alliance's history. Now it is already willing to host allied nukes on its territory, making it a target of Russian retaliation.

Moscow has long warned against such an ultra-provocative move. The Kremlin said Monday that this requires a response - given also the fact that Russia and Finland share an over 800-mile long border, which is made up largely of Arctic frontier.

"The results of the vote represent both bright and unflattering victory of the blind Russophobia of the past few years over what we have always viewed as pragmatic sanity in Finland," said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

via Atlantic Council

“And let nobody doubt that [response] measures will be taken timely and effectively. In this light, the Finnish people need to think whether this decision made by their elites will actually enhance security in Finland itself,” she added.

As a start, Russia has moved to shutter more rail crossings to NATO states, including Finland - which is to further severely impact trade:

Russia has closed seven railway border checkpoints with Finland, Estonia and Latvia, according to a government decree published Tuesday.

The suspension, which takes effect July 1, halts the movement of individuals, vehicles and cargo through the designated rail crossings. Five of the shuttered checkpoints are located on the Finnish border, while Estonia and Latvia each have one crossing affected.

Officials have not disclosed the reasons for the closures or when the checkpoints might reopen.

In Estonia, the Ivangorod freight and passenger crossing will remain open, and in Latvia, the Sebezh crossing will also stay open. However, the closures leave Finland with no open railway crossings with Russia, which normally exports fertilizer to Finland by rail.

Finland shut its eastern vehicle and pedestrian border crossings with Russia indefinitely in December 2023 following an influx of asylum seekers.

Since the Ukraine war began, and in context of ratcheting tensions with NATO over its military support to Kiev, Moscow has steadily militarized its border with Finland.

Russia will temporarily close a number of railway border crossings with Finland, Latvia and Estonia from July 1, 2026, for reasons unknown.

The appropriate executive order has been issued by the Russian government.

The decision concerns five crossings with Finland, one crossing… pic.twitter.com/Wy4X50SbfD

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) June 30, 2026

The most significant source of NATO's nuclear-sharing program is the United States. But lately France has expressed a desire to station some of its atomic arsenal in partner countries, and this could include in Finland, Sweden, Denmark and others.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 10:50

WTI Holds Losses As SPR Drain Slows, Cushing Just Off 'Tank Bottoms'

Oil extended its biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic this morning as traders monitored US-Iran peace talks and a market for real-world barrels that’s been in freefall.

WTI is holding below $70 as US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff had positive discussions in Qatar and technical talks with Iran are moving ahead, a senior administration official said, while President Trump said the meeting was good.

Crude has fallen in recent days as the warring parties continued discussions to reach a more lasting accord, although recent attacks around Hormuz have marred negotiations. Oil tanker traffic is now showing signs of recovery, and has picked up since the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, though vessel flows remain below pre-war levels.

“We expect that by the end of July this is done,” said Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, referring to the conflict.

“Once we have a normalization of flows through the strait, the expectation is that we go into an oversupply.”

API reported another sizable crude drawdown...

API

• Crude -6.1mm

• Cushing +500k

• Gasoline -2.1mm

• Distillates +2.9mm

DOE

• Crude -3.775mm

• Cushing +709k - first build in 10 weeks

• Gasoline -2.33mm

• Distillates +2.48mm

The official DOE data shows the 10th straight week of crude drawdowns, but stocks at Cushing rose (for the first time in 10 weeks). Products were mixed...

Source: Bloomberg

...BUT... Cushing stocks remain at 'tank bottoms'...

On the Gulf Coast, gasoline stocks are down to their lowest since October 2024 -- and the lowest for this time of year since 2015.

Nationally, they remain at the lowest for this time of year since 2014...

The SPR saw another drawdown last week, but it was notably smaller than recent declines...

A total of 89 million barrels of crude has been taken out of the SPR since late March under a program to release 172 million barrels as part of a relief plan coordinated by the International Energy Agency aimed at lowering energy costs.

The US still plans to release all those barrels.

US crude production remains near record highs as rig counts are rising rapidly...

Crude imports from the Middle East fell in the week to June 26.

Inflows from Iraq fell to zero, while 56,000 barrels a day of Saudi crude were offloaded. Customs data show that crude came from storage tanks in tanks in the Bahamas.

WTI was hovering around $69 ahead of the official print and dipped on the data...

In the meantime, Bloomberg reports that physical markets are looking weak.

Brent’s nearest timespread remained in contango (red oval in chart below) - a sign of oversupply - after expiry of the August contract.

Barrels from West Africa to the North Sea were offered at multiyear lows on Tuesday, as the rise in supply from Hormuz outpaces refinery demand. Saudi Arabia is making rare spot sales of oil as the kingdom’s shipments ramp up.

Finally, what Mr Trump really cares about - gas prices - are coming down...

...and look set to fall considerably further.

BUT... crack spreads are blowing out even as crude prices fall...

...signaling strong (and strengthening) demand for refined products (like gasoline or diesel) relative to crude supply (and potentially low inventories of refined products)... which could well keep pump prices more elevated than crude would suggest (and Trump would like).

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 10:37

Microsoft Plans Thousands Of Job Cuts As Stock Suffers Worst Start In Years

Microsoft shares are on track for one of their worst starts to a year in two decades, down roughly 21% year to date as of Tuesday’s close, as a cloud and sales hiring freeze and a broader “reset” of the Xbox unit have made recent headlines. This comes on top of growing concern over Microsoft’s AI spending boom.

Like much of the technology sector, Microsoft and other tech giants became labor-heavy after years of overhiring before and during the early Covid period. Now, the AI capex boom is forcing a major reassessment.

Hyperscalers are pouring hundreds of billions into data center buildouts, while AI chatbots and automation tools are beginning to replace white-collar tasks. The result is a broad workforce reset across Big Tech, with companies such as Microsoft rethinking headcount.

Business Insider reports that Microsoft is preparing to announce yet another round of job cuts as early as next week. The report was based on people familiar with upcoming labor restructuring efforts.

The layoffs are expected to affect thousands of employees across sales, consulting, and Xbox, though the reductions will be smaller than last year’s reductions. The next round is expected to be around 2.5% of Microsoft’s roughly 220,000-person workforce.

Last year, Microsoft eliminated 6,000 jobs in May and another 9,000 in July, or about 4% of its total workforce.

In April:

• MSFT Plans First Voluntary Buyout In 51-Year History; Gates Foundation To Slash 20% Of Staff

A separate report from Bloomberg says that payroll data across the financial activities and information sectors, where AI adoption has been fastest, is currently shrinking jobs by about 28,000 a month on average so far this year.

Goldman analyst Sarah Dong wrote in a note on Tuesday that the current AI adoption rate across corporate America stands at around 20.6% and is increasing.

These white-collar layoffs are likely only beginning to accelerate.

Latest firings:

• Meta Axes 8,000 Workers As Zuckerberg Admits AI Is Watching, Replacing Labor

Our assessment is that displaced workers should not be looking to downshift into low-wage service jobs, such as bartending and server work, as in previous cycles, but instead toward the physical buildout of the AI economy. Data centers, power infrastructure, grid upgrades, cooling systems, and electrical construction are where labor demand is rising, wages are strong, and jobs are plentiful.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 10:30

Still The (Military) Base Case

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Hormuz traffic is climbing, but refined product prices are lagging, and crack spreads are blowing out: one can’t just look at the oil price to understand the overall energy dynamic.

On the geopolitical front, things are also still mixed. Talks about the US-Iran MoU in Doha, without either side speaking to the other, went well according to the US, who are staying on for what could be indirect talks today. However, the Wall Street Journal reports Iran is split, with political leadership focused on getting assets unfrozen and the IRGC on keeping Hormuz more frozen. Tehran has now rejected third-party offers to help demine the water way; they are in no hurry to see things return to normal as this removes their energy leverage. Iran is also opposed to allowing the southern passage via Oman, which the US favours, to become established - and there are still reports Oman wants to charge for access to this channel.

A WSJ headline is that Trump has been briefed on ‘all-out war options’ to finish the job but is sticking with talks while making clear that --as expected in our base case-- the 60-day MoU deadline ending 18 August will be extended. Until November at least, as we posit?

Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu visited south Lebanon and reiterated that as long as Hezbollah is armed, they won’t leave, as the US announced coordinated sanctions with Gulf countries against the Iranian terror proxy. So, Tehran reads the MoU as “peace, where Hezbollah wins the war though it lost the battle”, and the US reads it as “peace, where Hezbollah loses by Israel staying or by being disarmed.” That can easily lead to more conflict with Iran, who doesn’t care about the US midterm timetable.

Neither does Israel, perhaps: Defence Minister Katz warned yesterday Israel could resume war with Iran “within two days” if missiles are fired at it, presumably as Tehran’s response to what is transpiring against its wishes in Lebanon. There is an element of pre-election rah-rah in his statement, but the threat is serious. However, on balance the likelihood is that Iran won’t trigger a new phase of the war… yet. That said, the tail risks are clear and the weak foundations of the current ‘peacefire’ should be well noted.

On conflict and timetables, departing UK PM Starmer has handed his successor Burnham a £5bn defence black hole, pledging new, smaller systems (and far less than what the military says it needs, and many arriving after 2030 rather than in this parliament) without having a plan for where the money will come from. In the EU, while Macron wants higher taxes on foreigners to fund a €2 trillion EC budget, but Germany wants a €400bn spending cut to balance things: who will win, and what does that say about Europe’s trajectory?

Russia is meanwhile reported to be about to start importing gasoline as Ukrainian strikes have so damaged the local fuel system.

In geoeconomics, the Hong Kong press reports that the US is interested in using a hollowed out G20 in Miami for a Trump-Xi meeting. That’s as, in line with what the US has long wanted, the World Bank is to phase out lending to China, and the White House is looking to ban Chinese solar inverters for national security reasons.

The US has lifted national security restrictions on the export of Anthropic’s Fable 5 Model after a review; and Japan has announced a $2.3 trillion startup tech strategy just after South Korea’s $1.3 trillion pledge. The cash being splashed here is not small.

Closer to home, the US is also reportedly to declare that it wishes to trigger a decade-long countdown to exiting the USMCA trade pact. The Canadian press notes this opens the door to a reworking of the agreement into a ‘Fortress North America’, logically with a common external tariff set by the US, as long flagged as the only logical US economic statecraft target by us. Where would that leave EU and Australian plans to deal more with Canada rather than the US? And, by contrast, where would it leave a Donroe Doctrine bloc replete with energy, commodities, consumers, technology, and military vis-à-vis others? The NAFTA > NAPHTHA (North American Petroleum and Hydrocarbons Trading Hub Association) pun about potential realpolitik springs to mind.

At home, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of birthright citizenship, so anyone physically in the US gives birth to a US citizen regardless of whether they are there legally or illegally, or permanently or as a tourist. No change for the US trajectory on that front, but there is informed talk that this issue could be as energizing for the Republican base in the midterms as Roe vs Wade was for the Democrats when that was overturned. The Court notably also removed limits on election spending, handing the cash-rich Republicans a boost.

In data, today’s strong Japanese Tankan survey was much better than expected for large manufacturers in particular. The 10-Y JGB yield is now slightly lower at 2.70%, still near the highest since 1997, while USD/JPY is at 162.7, the highest since 1986.

Indeed, the dollar is again on a roll, catching out markets who had been expecting the opposite. Gold just had its worst quarter in more than a decade, as the Great Debasement suddenly isn’t; and despite crypto falling, it’s reported that Trump and his family made either $1bn, $1.4bn, or $2bn from crypto deals in 2025.

Moreover, as the Australian Financial Review puts it, 2026 is ‘The year the global markets got physical’, as “Until this year, investors sought solace in capital-light companies with reliable earnings. Now, in the age of disruption, nothing is safe.”

That remains our (military) base case.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 10:15