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French Budget Rejections Fuel Debt Crisis Fears As Yield Spread Over Germany Hits 15-Year High

French Budget Rejections Fuel Debt Crisis Fears As Yield Spread Over Germany Hits 15-Year High

French government bonds sold off earlier today, pushing 10-year yields above 5% as budget concerns and social unrest sent the country's borrowing premium over Germany to its highest since 2011.

The French 10-year yield climbed to 5.11%, its highest since 2002, while the spread over equivalent German debt widened to 174 basis points, according to Bloomberg data.

Separately, across the Atlantic, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 5.07% as EU equities weakened and US stock futures fell on concerns about an AI bubble. 

UBS macro strategist Simon Penn wrote in a note to clients that the surge in French yields and the widening spread were due to "budget rejections."

Penn added more color:

The French 10-year yield has opened Thursday higher, at 5.05%, up 3.6bp on the day so far. That's pushed the spread to Germany out another 5.5bp. 

The news flow has moved away from street protests and back to the roots of the budget. The government isn't finding any takers for its budget proposals so far. Though full formal votes on the entirety of the budget are still to take place, this week has already seen MPs reject reduced spending measures. 

News that the rejections mean some EUR10 bn of deficit reductions have already been cast to one side, and the most contentious budget matters are still to be discussed has raised further the prospect of budget failure. 

A week ago the working assumption in the markets had been that MP's would vent their frustrations with budget measures but stop short of outright rejection. That is not proving to be the case. The bond market is hence reacting accordingly. The next threat comes later Thursday afternoon if MPs indicate today's proposals to cut spending are also to be rejected.

In a separate update, Penn said:

The biggest argument in the French parliament on Thursday is likely to be on the government's proposal to limit pension indexation. Under the current plan, only around one-third of pensioners, primarily those on lower incomes, would continue to receive full inflation-linked increases, with larger pensions facing partial indexation or a freeze. The proposal is one of the largest sources of planned savings and has already encountered significant resistance during the committee stage. Healthcare measures are also likely to attract intense scrutiny, with MPs debating changes aimed at slowing the growth of health and pharmaceutical spending. More broadly, the debate will test whether the government can preserve enough of its fiscal consolidation programme to maintain its target of reducing the overall public deficit to 5.0% of GDP in 2027 from an expected 5.4% in 2026.

UBS global head of economics and strategy research Arend Kapteyn asked, "A Slowdown in European Fiscal Support?" 

EU draft budgets suggest Eurozone stimulus drops sharply next year, but that assumes France delivers its planned tightening and it ignores the spending boost from the final RRF disbursements. 

France's mounting debt load is reviving a familiar European nightmare: the potential for another sovereign debt crisis, 15 years after the last one scared parts of the eurozone for years. This time, the warning signs are flashing at the heart of the bloc, with investors demanding a much higher premium to finance one of Europe's largest economies, now combined with unfettered mass migration and social unrest, certaintly a new dynamic. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 07:20

European Regimes Renew Their Attacks On Free Speech

European Regimes Renew Their Attacks On Free Speech

Authored by Ryan McMaken via Mises Institute,

In recent weeks, German and French politicians have denounced free speech, and especially the concept of "freedom of speech" as long envisioned in the libertarian tradition of natural rights. French President Emmanuel Macron on September 29 stated that"The so-called American 'free speech' today, which some people have promoted, is the opposite of free speech." Macron compared speaking freely as comparable to walking down the street assaulting other people.

A week earlier, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared,"Don't anyone come to me with free speech!" He asserted we must "still be able to protect citizens from false information."

Both were speaking on issues related to online speech through social media and similar platforms. Both see a grave danger to the ruling class posed by the ability of unvetted or anonymous users to post opinions freely.

In both cases, these attacks on freedom have been in the context of European regimes' repeated efforts to impose new regulations on social media platforms to limit speech.

This has been going on for several years. For example, back in February, Macron stated that "free speech is pure bullshit."

In Europe, the anonymity issue is no minor affair. In Germany, there are literal speech police who will arrest ordinary citizens merely for saying things online or reposting memes. It's easy to see why anonymity could be an essential tool in posting ideas and facts the regime doesn't like.

A European regime insisting on abolishing online anonymity is essentially tantamount to announcing that these regimes want the ability to make more arrests for wrongspeech. This is a growing problem across Europe, and a 2025 study concluded that British police were making 30 arrests per day for non-violent "offensive online messages." Under British law, one can be prosecuted for hurting someone else's feelings. That's not how British apologists describe it, of course, but that is the essential reality.

Euphemisms for Censorship

Whether we're talking about France, the UK, or Germany - all places where the despotic enemies of free expression have seemingly free rein - the regimes' forces do not, of course, come right out and say that they support censorship.

They couch their censorship in the soft language of Leftwing ideology. The claim is that speech must be regulated in order to combat "hate speech" or to reflect the "common good" or to combat "disinformation."

To wit, in recent years, European politicians have insisted that speech be made to fit into "a common framework" - to use Macron's phrasing - and to be subject to some standard determining what is "false information."

But here is the rub: Who is to determine what falls within this common framework? Who is to determine what constitutes "false information"? It is the ruling oligarchy and its political allies, of course, that will determine if some proposed fact or idea is to be allowed to be spoken freely.

The ruling elites will decide if some sentiment or phrase is to be defined as "hate speech" and thus will be punished by state police and regime jailers. The ruling elites will determine what is "science," and therefore what constitutes "disinformation." This was on full display in the United States during the Covid Panic, when the government bureaucrat Anthony Fauci effectively declared "I am the science."

It is through these state-created and reasonable-sounding "exceptions" to free speech that the regime smuggles in its despotism.

For example, this has been the case for many years with defamation laws. Those who defend legal sanctions for "defamation" essentially advocate for government censorship to combat hurt feelings. Moreover, for centuries, governments have used defamation laws as a means of punishing criticism of the regime. Laws against "seditious libel" - employed by absolutist kings of old - have always essentially been laws against free speech.

An Assault on Truth Itself

The individuals who are directly punished will not be the only victims of this censorship. Truth and critical thinking themselves will be the victims as the regime's subjects will no longer be allowed to fully and publicly examine the veracity of claims made by the ruling elites. It means that "truth" will be whatever the regime says it is.

This problem of using free speech to hide and distort reality itself was well described more than 100 years ago by the radical free-market libertarian Vilfredo Pareto. Pareto was no naive democrat who thought that freedom could necessarily be protected by elections or written constitutions. But he did understand that freedom of speech is at the very foundation of a free society, regardless of the type of regime or whatever other freedoms might be protected in writing.

Even as Pareto was facing the rise of violent radical socialists in Italy - and thoroughly doubted the ability of the liberal state to deal with it - he never wavered on the key importance of free speech. That is, Pareto remained a dogmatic hardliner on free speech, and in this was like nearly all libertarians before him, from the anarcho-capitalist Molinari to the American Revolutionaries.

Not surprisingly, then, Pareto concludes there were no "mitigating factors" that could legitimately limit speech in the name of some common good. Writing in 1916 he stated:

[B]efore a theory can be considered true, it is virtually indispensable that there be perfect freedom to impugn it. Any limitation, even indirect and however remote, imposed on anyone choosing to contradict it is enough to cast suspicion upon it. Hence freedom to express one's thought, even counter to the opinion of the majority or of all, even when it offends the sentiments of the few or of the many, even when it is generally reputed absurd or criminal, always proves favourable to the discovery of objective truth (accord of theory with fact). ...

Pareto goes on to insist that there can be no exceptions, even for the sake of protecting "truths" long held to be precious. Not even those assertions said to be essential to humanitarianism can be considered protected from the scrutiny of free speech. He continues:

Nor can an exception be made for humanitarian dogmas, nor for the dogmas of the sex religion so dear to Senator Berenger and other geniuses of the same magnitude. Let us keep the point strictly before us: There is no scientific liberty unless everything is open to doubt - even Euclid's geometry and three-dimensional space. It is ridiculous to say that one is disposed to grant liberty for "truth" but not liberty for "error"; for the point at issue is none other than to discover where the "truth" lies and where the "error"; and it cannot be settled if "error" cannot be defended by every possible reason that can be advanced in its favour. Only after such reasons have been validly refuted is judgment of error affirmed - pending further investigation. Many people fail to understand that, because in judging of truth or error they substitute a criterion of sentiment for the logico-experimental criterion.

Clearly, the fact that free speech is now so under siege in Europe is simply the latest evidence of how far out of favor old historical liberalism has become in Europe. Every year, Europe more enthusiastically embraces its worst tendencies in which human rights are repeatedly jettisoned to protect the "rights" of those who rule over the continent. Yet, the antipathy toward free speech also demonstrates the weakness of the European regimes and their political programs. Were the German, French, and British states not so hampered by political division, economic decline, and public dissatisfaction, they would not be so fearful.

Americans have no yet traveled so far down this road. But the foundation is already being built. Republicans support laws deeming all criticism of a certain foreign government to be "anti-semitism" and therefore "hate speech." Covid laid bare the American Left's enthusiasm for anti-speech tyranny. All that is necessary for the First Amendment to be wiped away is for a handful of federal judges to agree with the enemies of freedom. There is no guarantee.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 05:00

French Counterterror Police Arrest 'Ultra-Left' Activist Over Limoges City Hall Fire

French Counterterror Police Arrest 'Ultra-Left' Activist Over Limoges City Hall Fire

French police on Tuesday arrested a 34-year-old man suspected of taking part in the October 17 arson of Limoges city hall, three days after the riots that gutted the 1883 building. The elite RAID unit's Bordeaux branch took him at 6:15 a.m. in a small, isolated house at Val d'Issoire, in the Haute-Vienne department, according to the Limoges prosecutor's office. The prosecutor called him a "person suspected in the fire." He is presumed innocent and has not been charged.

The burnt city hall of the central city of Limoges, France, on October 18, 2026. CLOTAIRE ACHI / REUTERS

A source close to the case told Franceinfo he is an "ultra-left activist" already on the "fiché S" security watchlist. Some outlets first reported his age as 40; Franceinfo corrected it to 34. The prosecutor said investigators identified him through "painstaking" cross-checking of images and videos. ICI, the public radio network, reports that he is from the neighboring Creuse department and is suspected of earlier sabotage of TGV overhead lines and construction sites. His record was clean until an appeal court convicted him of violence against a police officer at an October 2024 protest in Guéret, a ruling he has taken to the Court of Cassation, so it is not final.

The Justice Ministry says he was not alone. Spokesman Sacha Straub-Kahn told ICI that "we are certain, from the images, that this person did not act alone," calling it a "manifestly concerted action" and putting the crowd in front of city hall at 500 to 700 people with "fairly substantial pyrotechnic means." No accomplice has been named or arrested. The only source for the ultra-left label is an unnamed one, and neither the prosecutor nor the ministry has said what role the suspect is accused of playing.

Custody, which began Tuesday, can run to 96 hours because the case falls under the special regime for organized crime. The investigation is run jointly by Haute-Vienne police and the national counterterrorism sub-directorate (SDAT). The national anti-terrorist prosecutor's office has not taken the case, but is following it. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said Monday that anti-terror prosecutors would soon decide whether to treat the fire as a suspected terror attack.

The fire itself began around 6 p.m. Saturday, when masked protesters entered the town hall and set it alight, according to the prefecture. Prefect Maurice Barate said the fire was set deliberately. Overnight the roof and belfry collapsed, and only the modern rear section was saved. Nineteen people were taken into custody that day, and four police officers were seriously hurt. Prosecutors opened an inquiry into destruction of property by dangerous means by an organized group.

Mayor Guillaume Guérin says the state left his police to face the mob. Guérin, of the center-right Republicans, told Sud Radio that national police ran out of crowd-dispersal grenades at about 3:30 p.m. and fell back, and that he saw about 700 infiltrators among a march of roughly 5,000 (a figure the outlet did not verify). He told Public Sénat that 400 rioters faced only 30 municipal police officers, and that the state is "in part responsible" for what happened. He has asked for a special rebuilding plan like the one for Notre-Dame, full state funding of what insurance does not cover, and has said he may resign if he does not get it.

Reacting to the arrest, Guérin said he expects the courts to be "up to the task" and wants the suspect jailed, while noting the presumption of innocence, because "he destroyed the house of all Limousins." He has secured a riot-police company for next Saturday, saying he needs national police and CRS officers "to maintain order." Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is due to visit Limoges on Friday.

Democrats retreat from house races they hoped to flip Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 04:15

NATO To Increase Black Sea Presence Following Drone Attacks On Shipping

NATO To Increase Black Sea Presence Following Drone Attacks On Shipping

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

NATO will send additional military equipment and aircraft to the Black Sea, following a series of drone attacks on shipping vessels in the key waterway.

Ships wait in the Black Sea in Constanta, Romania, on Oct. 15, 2026. Andreea Campeanu/Reuters

Allison Hart, NATO's principal spokeswoman, said in an Oct. 20 post on X that the assets will support surveillance, reconnaissance, and forensic activities.

The decision came after NATO ambassadors met at the North Atlantic Council, the defense alliance's main decision-making body, to discuss Black Sea security.

"We will continue to stand united and ensure that we are ready and able to address any threat and to keep our one billion people safe," Hart said.

NATO's military spokesman, U.S. Army Col. Martin L. O'Donnell, said that in addition to sending the radar systems, drones, and patrol aircraft, allies will send or have sent intelligence agents and teams to conduct forensic examinations of explosives used against shipping vessels.

NATO has not attributed the attacks to any country.

The added presence comes in response to several Black Sea incidents in which drones struck cargo vessels.

Earlier this month, a number of cargo ships were hit off the Bulgarian coast of the Black Sea in the space of one week.

On Oct. 13, the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity was sunk, and the Chelsea 3, sailing under a Maltese flag, registered in Odesa, and Ukrainian-owned, was also struck.

Drones struck two other cargo ships in the same waters on Oct. 6.

Bulgaria said that Russia was likely behind recent incidents off its waters. Russia's ambassador to Bulgaria, Eleonora Mitrofanova, said at the time that she had no information from the Russian Ministry of Defense about attacks on commercial vessels.

Tankers Struck Near Romanian Coast

On Oct. 15, drones struck two chemical tankers near Romania's Black Sea coast, setting them both ablaze.

The vessels were anchored near the Sulina Canal, which links the Danube River to the Black Sea. It is a major export route for Ukraine.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan called the situation in the waters "serious."

"Commercial ships are being attacked and sunk. Seafarers killed, injured, and missing, very close to the shores of Romania and Bulgaria," Dan said. "Lives, global trade, and critical infrastructure are at stake."

Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the European Affairs Department at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Russian newspaper Izvestia on Oct. 20 that against the backdrop of NATO's increased reconnaissance activities in the Black Sea, "the risk of incidents, including unintentional ones, is indeed increasing."

Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine border the Black Sea, and it is a vital shipping route.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine is also among the world's largest producers of grain and seed products - both use the Black Sea to export their goods. Consequently, the waterway has become a target for both sides in the ongoing war.

In recent months, Russian forces struck Ukrainian targets on the Black Sea, including the ports of Chornomorsk and Odesa.

Ukraine, for its part, has been targeting Russian grain and farming infrastructure in the waters.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 02:00

The Turd-Eaters: France Gives Us A Lesson On The Pillager Class

The Turd-Eaters: France Gives Us A Lesson On The Pillager Class

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

Over the years I have written frequently about what I call the “Pillager Class” and the “Producer Class” in an attempt to explore the reasons why certain people, groups and cultures always seem to turn to looting and destruction rather than building anything of value of their own.

It is a threat the west has been dealing with for thousands of years: We engineer and create and plan for the future, and instead of doing the same, the pillager class decides it’s easier to take what we have. Sometimes they are subtle like a parasite, and sometimes they’re not so subtle, like a swarm of locusts.

There are numerous theories on why this happens. Some think it stems from genetics, others from low IQ, others think it’s purely a cultural phenomenon, and some people argue that it’s a mere reactionary response to poverty. I suspect it’s a combination of all these things. At bottom though, it seems that certain groups are simply born with the pillager instinct; a subset of the populace perpetually stuck in scavenger limbo.

A good comparison to understand this is the classic “lottery winner” dilemma. Data suggests that around 70% of all lottery winners lose every dime they won in 5 years or less. It doesn’t matter if it’s thousands of dollars or millions of dollars; they can’t seem to keep their hands on wealth.

They go from cash windfall to bankruptcy and financial failure so quickly, winning the lottery is often treated like a curse rather than good luck. This happens because they are incapable of planning for tomorrow. Their brains are ostensibly stunted, and they can only think in terms of the present moment. They are doomed to live in poverty because they are incapable of growing beyond their most base desires.

The pillager class is very similar. You can take them out of the global ghettos, bring them to your home and give them every opportunity imaginable to improve their circumstances, and yet, they will always choose thievery and barbarism instead. The only thing that might change is the complexity of their crimes.

Somali daycare and medical fraud in the US is a prime example. Fake college degrees and the H-1B theft of American jobs by Indian scammers is another. The Muslim “Silent Jihad” – a strategy of invasion through false integration, is also a pressing threat.

These people aren’t thankful for the opportunities handed to them. They believe they are entitled. In every case they argue that it is Americans who should be grateful for the migrants on our soil, for it is they who “built our country” (Third world immigration to the US was highly restricted until the mid-1960s, so this claim is nonsense). They don’t care that their invasions will eventually kill the golden goose. Some of them WANT to kill the golden goose.

In France right now, migrant rioters say they are looting and burning because they want more. More access to education. A better cost of living standard. More influence in government. All of this is a lie; what they really want is an excuse to steal whatever isn’t bolted down and then tear apart the rest. But it’s interesting that their moral argument for ransacking Paris is that they are owed more freebies in a country that already took them in. This tells us all we need to know about them.

Beyond the average pillager’s tendency to covet what the west has, there is an element of conspiracy which feeds the multicultural influx. In my article “Pillagers vs Producers: There’s Only Two Ways To Save The Western World”, I look specifically at the alliance between third world cultures and Marxist activism. This alliance is the source of the radioactive sludge that is giving the west cancer. It is this partnership that fuels the rise of migrant incursions into the western world.

Those of us trying to fight against the organized demolition of our society are certainly not the first to see the danger coming. I recently came across a book which I can only call prophetic – A book which describes almost everything happening in the world today, and it was published back in 1973.

“The Camp Of The Saints”, by French author Jean Raspail, has been banned in many libraries around the world while the writer was accused of “racism” and “xenophobia” for his fictional depiction of a migrant onslaught in Europe, starting in France and leading to the fall of the west. The story is set in the near future and reads like a timeline of current events.

The root premise of the The Camp Of The Saints is that a demonic partnership exists between the liberal left and third world pillagers. The nihilistic progressives, reveling in atheism, Marxism and globalism, are represented by the character of “Ballan”, an arrogant and godless leftist philosopher very similar to the French Marxist, Jean Paul Sartre.

Ballan travels to the squalor of India as part of a “humanitarian mission” to send tens-of-thousands of migrant children to be adopted in Europe. The group is eventually accused of having nefarious motives to use pity and guilt to undermine the west. Ballan essentially admits to the plan, and screams at his accusers that borders, nations and cultures are “rubbish” that must be destroyed.

In his fury, Ballan marches onto the streets of Calcutta and stumbles across an Indian man referred to as the “Turd-Eater”; an absolutely pathetic specimen of a human being. The Turd Eater is part of the “untouchable class” in India and he works as a “dung roller”; a person who collects human feces from the streets and rolls the manure into bricks to be used as fuel for fires. He is also known to eat the bricks in times of starvation (all of this comes from very real practices in the recent history of India, unfortunately).

The Turd Eater is a large man charged with the care of his deformed son, who he often carries on his back. The child cannot speak and only makes incomprehensible noises. (Until the past decade, consanguineous marriages or inbred marriages in India represented around 23% of all marriages in the country. That rate has now supposedly fallen to 11% but remains an ongoing issue in rural areas).

Ballan sees the encounter as a miracle, a profound moment. He reasons that this man and his child have experienced the pinnacle of suffering and thus they possess the ultimate knowledge of humanity (This is a common delusion among leftists – the notion that the “oppressed classes” posses a superior knowledge of life and should thus be treated as precious, or perhaps even worshiped).

The Turd Eater dreams of going to the west, and Ballan seeks to help him. In the process, Ballan turns the Turd Eater into a demagogue, a leader of the migrant masses. The philosopher whispers dark rhetoric into the man’s ear, which the man then repeats, mixing eastern and Christian religious concepts into a theosophical gibberish about the East coming to save the Christian west. His deformed child becomes a messianic symbol of the movement, an “inspiration” for mass immigration.

Again, this is brilliantly prophetic. Today, the political left constantly feeds talking points to third worlders, teaching them to appeal to our Christian and Constitutional principles. How often in the US have we heard migrant representatives talk about the First Amendment, freedom of religion, America as a “melting pot”, and the conservative “Christian duty” to help those in need?

These are all carefully scripted manipulations designed to use our own ideals to destroy us. As I have covered in past articles, these claims are based on false and twisted versions of Biblical teachings and misrepresentations of the intentions of the Founding Fathers. At no point ever has western heritage called us to accept responsibility for the pillager class.

Ultimately, the character of Ballan falls victim to his own creation. A massive migrant army sets out under the command of the Turd Eater to ride an armada of flotillas to France, and Ballan seeks to join them. Instead, they beat him and drown him in the dirty and disgusting Ganges river simply because he is white.

Meanwhile, leftist politicians and activists in Europe welcome the migrant invasion with open arms in the name of empathy and humanitarianism. This leads to more flotillas and caravans flooding into the west. Eventually, westerners are culturally replaced as victims of genocide. The people who do try to fight back are accused of racism and their efforts are undermined by lack of strong leadership.

The leftists treat the destruction of the west as justified and they cheer the replacement, only to be replaced themselves. The story is about the ideological self-sabotage of the west through liberalism. It is a warning from 50 years ago that is coming true today.

The one thing that The Camp Of The Saints misses is the reality of an underlying and malicious agenda – The globalist influence, the NGO funding, the UN backing, all the elements of power that are maneuvering and helping the third world replacement to happen. They aren’t creating the pillager class, it already exists and has always existed. Rather, the globalists have identified the pillager class as a useful weapon and they are aiming the barbarian horde at the US and Europe to fulfill the Marxist vision of a borderless, homogenized socialist empire.

This is a righteous act according to progressives, because of the West’s colonial past. In their minds, westerners ARE the pillagers. As Marxist Jean Paul Sartre once said:

“But to become natives altogether, our soil must be occupied by a formerly colonized people and we must starve of hunger…”

“You will be convinced that it would be better for you to be a native at the uttermost depths of his misery than to be a former settler.”

The demonization of western settlement relies on an ignorance of history and a romanticized image of “indigenous peoples.” The west brought technology, infrastructure and an alternative to the savagery of the ancient world. There are many disturbing accounts of these archaic cultures written by explorers, missionaries and native witnesses. They read like the most grotesque horror stories you can imagine.

Brutal slavery, torture, mass murder, child sacrifice, rivers of blood, the stench of death permeating the air, all of it at the hands of more powerful tribes subjugating smaller tribes. The old world was a pagan hell on Earth. The average leftist growing up in the unprecedented security and sanity of the modern west cannot comprehend the nightmares that existed before settlers arrived on the shores of Africa, Asia and the Americas.

When we exited some of these places in the name of “social justice”, we left behind stunning infrastructure. Billions upon billions of dollars in advanced systems and industry, clean water, waste management, healthcare and transportation.

The natives ended up dismantling all of it out of greed or they let it rot out of laziness. Many countries reverted economically and technologically. Even nations like India which still maintain deep trade and political ties to the west are giant dung heaps otherwise, with mountains of garbage and feces in the streets. They simply cannot run their civilizations properly, and so, they all want to travel to the west.

It is time to put an end to the western self-loathing and nihilism championed by the political left. We need to accept the fact that our culture is superior in design, or at least it was until the progressives got hold of it. And, ultimately, we need to adopt a philosophy of selectivity, merit and a refusal to compromise. If this means deporting third worlders in large numbers, so be it. If it means booting out militant leftists and sending them to an island somewhere, so be it.

They declared war on us first. There is no rule that says we have to let them win. As Jean Raspial notes in The Camp Of The Saints:

“In the strange war that was coming, victory would go to those who loved themselves the most…”

The novel describes the death of the west as suicide by empathy; a condemnation of the liberal tendency to view the dregs of the world as our moral responsibility. But it is not the responsibility of the west to save the world. If we did save it, the only practical method would be colonialism.

Bringing the west to the third world is the only way to pull them out of the gutter. Bringing the third world to the west is a sure way to drag us all into the gutter. After a decade of invasion by the pillager classes into the US and Europe, after the recent infestation of the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, after the riots and looting we are seeing in France this week, the terrible end result is predictable and undeniable.

The truth is, if the downfall of our civilization continues, it is only because we allowed it to happen.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 23:50

Israel Detains NY Congressional Nominee In West Bank Olive Grove, Sets Free After Learning Who He Is

Israel Detains NY Congressional Nominee In West Bank Olive Grove, Sets Free After Learning Who He Is

Some candidates kiss babies two weeks before an election. Brad Lander picked olives in the West Bank.

Lander, the former New York City comptroller and the Democratic nominee in deep-blue NY-10, posted this at 6:29am ET on Wednesday:

Watch the video.

Brad Lander speaks before being detained at the olive harvest. Video via The Guardian.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani chimed in, writing on X "Harvesting olives is not illegal. The occupation is," adding "[O]ther New Yorkers remain detained, and they must be released immediately ... The same Israeli government detaining them has committed a horrific genocide against Palestinians, killing more than 74,000 people over the last few years alone. "

In other words, a brief detention in a disputed olive grove has turned into an Israel-vs-New-York-City diplomatic spat, two weeks before the midterms and six days before Israel votes.

"Released Once The Matter Was Brought To Our Attention"

According to NPR, which had a team on the ground in Nahalin, Israeli forces declared a closed military zone around an olive grove near the settlement of Beitar Illit and detained Lander along with about 80 American and Israeli rabbis and activists. Two Israeli lawyers told NPR it was the largest mass detention of activists in the West Bank in at least a decade. The IDF's explanation for letting only one of them go was refreshingly honest:

"Regarding reports of the detention of a congressional candidate, we note that he was released once the matter was brought to our attention."

Lander put it his own way: he said he was released "with a 'warning,' apparently because of my public profile (I told them I wasn't even a congressmember yet, just a nominee)." The rest of the group, from the Rabbis for Human Rights delegation, was still being held at a police station in Beitar Illit hours later, according to the Times of Israel.

About That Map...

Here is where it gets interesting. The IDF told CBS New York that "harvesting in this area requires a request to be submitted to the relevant authorities in advance," and Israel Police said the group had entered an area near the settlement fence that needed approval. Lander called it "a bald-face lie."

The Times of Israel's US bureau chief then reported that a map handed out to Palestinian farmers by Israel's own Civil Administration shows the spot where the group was detained did not require prior coordination. Once reporters started posting the map, the IDF's new explanation was that the area isn't marked because Palestinians had never asked to harvest there before. Very reassuring.

Jerusalem's diplomats weren't having any of it. Israel's Foreign Ministry hit back a little before noon ET:

To be fair, the ministry has a point about the optics. Lander's own posts framed the trip as an effort to shed light on the occupation, and a candidate who knows his district is safe has little to lose and plenty of cable hits to gain. The ministry's claim that his team was told ahead of time that coordination was needed hasn't been independently confirmed, but it hasn't been denied either. And Mamdani's "genocide" line is exactly the kind of thing that earned him bipartisan blowback over his Oct. 7 statement just two weeks ago.

Not all the criticism came from the left, though. Israeli MK Gilad Kariv warned (via the Times of Israel) that if someone doesn't stop "this madness, it will cause enormous damage to relations with Jews of the United States - and entirely justifiably so."

Who Harvested What

Lander's camp says a future congressman was hauled off for helping a farmer pick his own olives. Israel says it was a planned stunt in a restricted zone. Our summary is less so: by detaining 80 people and releasing only the one with a press office, Israel handed Lander and Mamdani a bigger platform than any olive grove could, and its own map undercut the explanation. With Israelis voting Oct. 27, Americans voting Nov. 3, and dozens of rabbis still in custody when this was written, we'll check back on whether the other detainees are deported, which would keep this story going right through both elections.

Then again, if harvesting headlines was the goal, it's been a bumper crop.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 23:25

Ukraine's Anti-Graft Cops Raid The Central Bank... So Where's The Gold?

Ukraine's Anti-Graft Cops Raid The Central Bank... So Where's The Gold?

Ukraine's wartime corruption saga, which so far has swept through the state nuclear monopoly, the president's former chief of staff and the prosecutor general's office, has now reached the one institution that was supposed to be above it all: the central bank.

On Wednesday morning, detectives from the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), working with the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO), searched the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) headquarters in Kyiv and the home of what the bureau coyly called "one of its employees." According to a law enforcement source cited by the Kyiv Independent, the premises searched belonged to Governor Andriy Pyshnyi himself, and MP Danylo Hetmantsev said as much publicly: the "employee" was the governor.

The NBU confirmed the searches and said it was operating as usual. By evening, Pyshnyi was on Facebook insisting that, per the court order, the criminal case concerns neither the central bank's activities nor his duties as governor, and that the searches turned up no evidence of wrongdoing by him or any NBU staffer. The central bank also denied rumors that he had resigned. Which, as anyone who has followed Ukrainian politics knows, is usually what happens right before someone resigns, or is resigned. 

Follow The Sense Bank

So what are the detectives actually looking for? NABU hasn't said, but lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak, who first publicized the raid, says it is tied to two cases: the Karpatnaftokhim petrochemical complex in western Ukraine, and the running of state-owned Sense Bank by outside individuals. Zhelezniak also called on Pyshnyi to step down.

Sense Bank is the thread worth pulling. The lender, formerly Alfa-Bank Ukraine and part of Mikhail Fridman's empire, was nationalized after Russia invaded. It has since become a recurring character in the Energoatom kickback probe, the largest corruption case of Zelensky's tenure. Prosecutors say a Hr 150 million ($3.4 million) bail payment for former Energy and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko was routed through Sense Bank with allegedly laundered money, and in August they charged Zelensky's former deputy chief of staff Iryna Mudra, Sense Bank CEO Oleksiy Stupak and others over the scheme. The NBU, as supervisor, has been criticized for not stopping it.

The direct link to Pyshnyi: Sense Bank's former supervisory board chairman told a parliamentary inquiry that Vasyl Veselyi, a figure in the leaked NABU "Mindich tapes," was appointed to the bank on Pyshnyi's recommendation. Pyshnyi denies making any such recommendation. In those same tapes, Veselyi and businessman Oleksandr Tsukerman reportedly discussed influencing board appointments at the bank and talking to Zelensky's then-chief of staff Andriy Yermak about it.

That last name matters, because Pyshnyi got the job in October 2022 as a Yermak ally, after his predecessor Kyrylo Shevchenko abruptly resigned and then said NABU had accused him in a Hr 206 million embezzlement case at a state lender. Pravda reported in August that Zelensky was already unhappy with Pyshnyi and that his dismissal had been discussed. So two of the last two NBU governors have now had anti-graft detectives at the door. Not a great hit rate for the institution that also happens to guard the nation's gold reserves.

And as a bizarre coda, on the very same day Hungarian authorities detained György Matolcsy, Viktor Orbán's longtime central bank governor, whose son is the subject of a separate probe into corruption at the Hungarian central bank. Central bankers across the region probably had a quiet dinner tonight.

Speaking Of Reserves... Where Is The Gold?

Which brings us to the question nobody in Kyiv was asked today. To be clear upfront: nothing reported so far ties the NBU probe to Ukraine's reserves, and Pyshnyi says the case has nothing to do with the bank's operations. What follows is speculation, labeled as such. But if the central bank's supervisory function was compromised by people with access to the president's office, it seems fair to ask what else was sitting within reach.

On paper, the answer is reassuring. Ukraine's international reserves hit a record $57.7 billion as of Feb. 1 (unclear how much of that is US "donations") and monetary gold made up 8.5% of them, up from 5.7% a year earlier, thanks largely to gold's price surge rather than any buying spree. The World Gold Council puts Ukraine's holdings at 27.37 tonnes, unchanged through the second quarter, worth roughly $4.9 billion as of January per CEIC data.

Holdings peaked at 42.6 tonnes in early 2014, fell to a nine-year low within months, and have only partly recovered since.

Long-time readers will recall that Ukraine's gold has a habit of wandering off at moments of political upheaval. On March 10, 2014, days after Yanukovych fled, we flagged an entirely unsubstantiated report from pro-Russian outlet Iskra that the reserves had been loaded onto an unmarked plane at Boryspil and flown to the US, and asked whether the price of Ukraine's "liberation" was the handover of its gold to the Fed.

The NBU denied it. Then in November 2014, then-Ukraine Central Bank chief Valeria Gontareva casually admitted on TV that gold was down to about $1 billion of reserves, which, on our math at the time, implied far less than that, and we wrote that Ukraine admits its gold is gone (Gontareva currently now faces Up to 12 Years in Prison and Confiscation of Property in Case Involving Collaboration with Russia).

Here is a transcript of the clip above:

  • 0:00 The NBU firmed the hryvnia by only 2 kopecks, to 15.75 per dollar. On the interbank market the dollar sold at 16.05 and the euro at about 20.
  • 0:14 The devaluation sent gold up 5% in a day. A gram of top-purity gold now costs 665 hryvnias, an all-time high, and the price has nearly doubled since January.
  • 0:38 Gold is disappearing from the NBU's vaults and is only a tiny share of the reserves. Gontareva said so herself on Channel 5 (5 Kanal).
  • 0:49 Gontareva says "Actually, practically, if you want to know, physically there isn't any. There's a small amount of gold bars, but it's literally, probably, up to 1%.".
  • 1:00 She didn't explain how it happened. Official NBU data show almost $1B of gold at the end of October, about 8% of reserves, or eight times what she says.
  • 1:20 Even by the official figures, holdings fell by more than a third in October alone. Gold prices are falling, so the NBU is selling into the drop and losing money.
  • 1:38 The gold was built up under former governor Serhiy Arbuzov, who decided in early 2011 to raise gold's share of reserves.
  • 1:57 Arbuzov, in an archive clip, says: "Roughly 21 tonnes of gold. That's several billion dollars… these are reserves that aren't subject to the changes paper money goes through, so the value will only grow."
  • 2:08 The bet made several hundred million dollars by late 2012, and the gold sat in a secure vault that journalists toured two years earlier.
  • 2:35 How the gold is now vanishing from the vaults is unclear.

A week later the central bank admitted the outflow and called it an "optimization of reserve structure," which is probably the most central-banker phrase ever coined for "it's gone."

IMF data later showed holdings dropping to 23.6 tonnes in November 2014, a nine-year low, from over 42 tonnes at the start of the year. The official explanation was sales to prop up reserves, and by December lawmakers were turning on their own central bankers over it. Weeks later came the cherry on top: the NBU had been conned into buying painted lead bricks as gold, about $300,000 worth, allegedly with help from someone on the inside.

So where is the gold now? Probably in one of three places, and here's where the speculation starts:

1. Where they say it is. The boring and most likely answer: the bulk sits in NBU vaults or, more plausibly given a war with missiles landing on Kyiv, in custody abroad. Wartime central banks routinely park bullion at the Bank of England, the New York Fed or the BIS, and the NBU has never published a bar list or a vault-by-vault breakdown. That opacity was a feature during the war. It looks a bit different on the day detectives are walking out of the governor's office with (heavy) boxes.

2. On the road. Ukraine's physical gold and cash do move, and we know this because one shipment got hijacked. In March, Hungary's counterterrorism unit stopped two Oschadbank armored vans near Budapest carrying $40 million, €35 million and nine kilograms of gold from Vienna to Kyiv, with Orbán accusing Kyiv of bankrolling the Hungarian opposition. Hungary's own tax authority later traced it to a documented Raiffeisen deal and closed the money-laundering case, and it is now Orbán, not Ukraine, facing a potential criminal case over the seizure. Still, it was a rare look at the logistics of state-owned precious metal moving across Europe in vans, and a reminder that gold, unlike a SWIFT transfer, actually has to be driven somewhere.

3. Pledged, swapped or lent. This is the one worth watching. Central banks under funding stress have a long history of quietly using gold as collateral, via swaps or leasing, while still reporting it as reserves. Nothing suggests the NBU has done this (or that it hasn't). But if the institution's governance was porous enough for outsiders to steer board seats at a state bank, independent confirmation that 27 tonnes are allocated, unencumbered and physically where they're supposed to be would seem like cheap insurance. Maybe the IMF, which has a seat at every Ukrainian table these days, could ask.

A Run On Trust, Not On Gold

For now, the more immediate risk is institutional rather than metallic. The NBU's independence is one of the few things Western lenders have consistently praised in Kyiv, and the IMF program and the EU's Ukraine Facility both lean on it. A governor ousted under a corruption cloud, with the president's office reportedly already wanting him gone, would hand critics of continued aid exactly the narrative they've been building since the Energoatom tapes leaked.

And if it turns out the case really does have nothing to do with the central bank, well, NABU just raided the head of the monetary authority of a country at war for a case unrelated to his job. Either way, someone in Kyiv is about to have a very uncomfortable meeting with the IMF mission.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 23:07

How The NYT Hid Big Pharma PR Titan Jack Leslie In Plain Sight

How The NYT Hid Big Pharma PR Titan Jack Leslie In Plain Sight

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

New York Times reporter Sheryl Gay Stolberg wrote one of the most hilarious, misleading pieces I've seen in recent months, castigating the NIH for a new vaccine injury clinic based on a leaked statement by Jack Leslie, a senior advisor to the PR firm Weber Shandwick which represents most major vaccine manufacturers.

I'm not joking. This is the journalism I get for my paid subscription to the New York Times.

Like most senior executives at the global PR firm Weber Shandwick, Jack Leslie makes buckets of money helping corporations sell themselves and their products to the American public. In the last handful of years, Weber Shandwick's clients have included the bulk of the global vaccine giants including Pfizer, Moderna, GSK, Sanofi, Novartis, and Eli Lilly.

But when he's not raking in oodles of cash repping corporate America, Leslie also takes on some unpaid healthcare positions as further leverage to market his lucrative pharma clients, such as heading the board of the NIH Clinical Center Research Hospital Board. The board met on Friday morning and Leslie's first order of business, I am told, was voting to castigate HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for establishing a new NIH clinic to study vaccine injuries.

Leslie then leaked his statement and the vote to Sheryl Gay Stolberg at the New York Times, whose story appeared within hours.

Stolberg's reporting - or whatever it was - failed to disclose that Leslie works for Weber Shandwick which advises pretty much every vaccine company on the planet. Here's how Stolberg describes him to New York Times readers:

Mr. Leslie, a former chairman of the global public relations firm Weber Shandwick, has advised the World Health Organization and numerous health-oriented philanthropies, and government bodies under presidents of both parties. He also chairs the board of the Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation, and advises global health institutes at two universities, Duke and Georgetown.

And here's what a tiny amount of suspicion and about 45 seconds on Google got me when I searched Leslie's background: his current biography at Weber Shandwick. Note the plaudits for Leslie's work advising vaccine manufacturers Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and Sanofi.

Back in 2022, I reported that Weber Shandwick had won a $50 million contract to embed their personnel at the CDC's vaccine center and advise physicians on COVID vaccines, while Weber Shandwick simultaneously had contracts with Pfizer and Moderna to promote their COVID vaccines. I caught one Weber Shandwick employee writing on LinkedIn that his duties at the CDC "focuses on boosting vaccination rates for flu, HPV, whooping cough, and COVID-19."

Days after my report, Senator Rand Paul sent the CDC a letter demanding that the agency turn over copies of their contract with Weber Shandwick, as well as the names of all of Weber Shandwick employees who were working at the CDC. A source inside HHS told me last year that, shortly after Kennedy was sworn in as HHS Secretary, Weber Shandwick's lucrative contract with the CDC was cancelled.

NIH established the Clinical Center Research Hospital Board in 2016 to advise NIH leadership on safety and regulatory compliance, and the NIH Director chooses the board members. Francis Collins appointed Jack Leslie to the board in 2022, and he was made chair in 2024.

The board's federal charter states that members must meet the following criteria: Nationally recognized leaders in sectors related to the NIH Clinical Center's duties, research hospital administration, clinical care, safety and quality, clinical and research compliance, or clinical research.

However, two individuals are chosen if they have been patients in clinical research studies.

I sent Francis Collins an email through his public relations rep asking why he chose Jack Leslie as a board member and how Leslie's background in pharmaceutical PR qualified him to be on the NIH Clinical Center's board. "Can you explain your thinking on that?" I asked Dr. Collins.

Collins did not respond to repeated requests for an explanation.

I also sent questions to Jack Leslie through his Weber Shandwick email asking who his current pharmaceutical clients are. However, Leslie also did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 22:10

Pezeshkian Now Says Sanctions Must Be Peeled Off Before US Dialogue Returns

Pezeshkian Now Says Sanctions Must Be Peeled Off Before US Dialogue Returns

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appeared to add yet another stipulation to Tehran's growing list of demands that must be met if it is to get back to the negotiating table with the US.

Pezeshkian stated that some Washington-led sanctions must be peeled back before direct dialogue can resume again. He voiced that the constantly ratcheting economic warfare is closing diplomatic avenues, and so there must be a 'practical' easing of pressure to set an atmosphere of honest talks.

"Threats and sanctions must be removed in practice to pave the way for dialogue. We cannot increase the intensity of sanctions and pressure every day, close the avenues of interaction, and at the same time talk about negotiations," he wrote on X.

Xinhua

He is perhaps taking note of what's happening in US-Russia relations, where President Trump just waived the sweeping Graham sanctions package just ahead of when they were expected to be enacted. Trump also earlier this month facilitated the diesel release deal with Putin.

Out of these overtures has come an increase in direct Moscow-Washington dialogue. It seems Pezeshkian is holding out for the possibility of a scenario like this, depending on how desperate the White House becomes for a peace deal.

While there's no doubt that Iran's economy is under immense pressure, and average people are feeling the pain on a daily basis - especially given the plunging Rial amid runaway inflation - Iranian leaders say the country can endure in this wartime state of survival for at least years more.

The Pentagon and the Trump administration have been saying something different, however.

US Central Command chief Brad Cooper claimed last week that "The financial strain on Iran’s military has become so significant that there are reports of Iran-aligned militia groups across the region withholding payments to their soldiers in order to funnel money back to the IRGC, which also is not paying its troops."

At various times over the last several months, Iranian officials have admitted the deep financial pain within society and impacting government coffers, also amid the US naval blockade which prevents Iranian oil from reaching global markets.

Yet Iranian leaders have remained defiant...

For example, Iran's Central Bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati said earlier this month, "Despite all these pressures, the Iranian economy has demonstrated very good resilience, and the claim that Iran’s economy is collapsing is nothing more than an illusion."

It continues to be a high stakes standoff and game of each warring side waiting the other out, seeing how much economic and political cost can be inflicted.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 21:45

Oz Says HHS Is Deferring $1.2 Billion More From California Medicaid Funding

Oz Says HHS Is Deferring $1.2 Billion More From California Medicaid Funding

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Medicare and Medicaid Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz announced in the Oval Office on Tuesday that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is deferring an additional $1.2 billion in Medicaid funding from California over concerns of widespread fraud in its state healthcare programs.

The federal government's withholding of Medicaid payments to California now totals more than $3.3 billion.

"They just got the note, and we're doing that because of the growth of personal care services in California," Oz said.

"California has been growing that program 24 percent in the last three years. That is twice the rate of every other state average in the country. Impossible for us to understand how that could be so."

President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and independent journalist Nick Shirley joined Oz at the Oval Office event on Tuesday.

Trump administration officials credited Shirley for his work in exposing healthcare fraud in Minnesota last December, which launched him into the national spotlight as an independent government watchdog.

"I just was concerned about the well-being of our tax dollars," Shirley said during the White House event. "There's never been an incentive for anyone to ever expose fraud. In fact, when I expose fraud, instead of the mainstream media investigating the fraud, they investigated me, and people actually, in fact, wanted to kill me after I exposed the fraud."

After his video highlighted alleged fraud in Minnesota's daycare programs, Shirley made additional videos in New York and California.

In Oz's announcement Tuesday, he clarified that the deferment affects California's Medicaid payments directed to personal care services.

"Just that one little area where you're paying someone to carry groceries upstairs for your mom, which many of you would carry groceries upstairs for your mom for free, I would think, but in California, they'll pay you a lot of money for it, and it's actually run by the counties," Oz said.

Trump signed an executive order on March 16 to officially create an anti-fraud task force to be headed by Vance.

As part of Tuesday's White House event, Trump and Vance announced a $25 million Fraud Whistleblower Incentive Program (WHIP), designed to reward Americans who help report misuses of U.S. tax dollars.

Under the program, citizens who provide tips that lead to a successful fraud conviction or a significant federal enforcement action are eligible to receive 1 percent of the amount of fraud discovered, Trump said.

The Justice Department will oversee WHIP, and Americans can submit tips online at fraud.gov.

"For the first time ever, there'll be an incentive for people to actually go out and make that change inside their own community," Shirley said about WHIP. "I hope by today, millions of people are empowered inside of the United States to go out and actually make a change inside your own community, and you'll actually be rewarded for saving America money."

Oz announced that the latest action against California's Medicaid program was on behalf of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who said on July 21 that CMS was withholding more than $867 million in Medicaid payments to California.

"Every dollar the federal government allows to be lost to fraud, waste, and abuse is a dollar stolen from American patients and the American taxpayer," Kennedy said at the time. "That's money that should be going to legitimate healthcare."

In May, Vice President JD Vance announced $1.3 billion would be withheld from California's Medicaid payments over potentially fraudulent billing patterns.

"We want to protect these programs for the kids and the families who need them," Vance previously said. "We want to ensure that the American taxpayer isn't getting fleeced."

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has called the withholding of funds politically motivated. His office did not respond to a request for comment about the latest deferment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 21:20

45% Of College Students Justify Violence To Stop 'Hate Speech': Survey

45% Of College Students Justify Violence To Stop 'Hate Speech': Survey

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

A new survey finds that nearly half of undergraduate students support censorship, shout-downs, and physical violence to suppress what they consider “hate speech” or offensive ideas.

Fox News reports that the 2026 National Undergraduate Student Survey, released this month by the Buckley Institute, shows that 45 percent of undergraduate students surveyed believe physical violence can be justified to stop so-called hate speech. That number is up 6 points from 2025 and ties the all-time record set in 2023.

The survey, which polled 803 full-time undergraduate students at four-year public and private colleges across the United States, revealed several record-high metrics concerning free expression on campus, according to Yahoo.

Other takeaways from the survey were that 46 percent of students support shout downs and 40 percent believe that offensive speech should be subject to criminal prosecution.

Some 42 percent of respondents said that political comments they disagree with can be harmful to their mental health, up 4 points from last year; the highest reading in the 5 years this question has been monitored.

The findings prompted Cornerstone University President Dr. Gerson Moreno-Riaño to warn that higher education has “lost its way.”

Moreno-Riaño told Fox News Digital:

American colleges and universities for a long time now have really ceased to form students morally and are teaching resentment, teaching grievance politics, teaching violent entitlement. So, when graduates leave these universities, they leave with that. They’re not leaving with a moral formation of their hearts, their minds, their lives. They’re leaving with resentment.

Moreno-Riaño also cautioned that many colleges and universities are preparing “socialists and Marxists” who want entitlement and to “destroy the system” rather than “build it, make it, refine it and improve it.”

The Cornerstone University president also stressed that American higher education “has to shift,” saying it needs to “take moral formation seriously and not be grounded in entitlement and grievance culture.”

The Buckley Institute survey was conducted online between Sept. 5 and Sept. 14 by Inquire LLC and included 803 full-time undergraduate students under age 25 attending four-year public or private colleges and universities.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 16:40

Tesla Gains On EPS Beat, Crushes FCF Estimates... By Spending $3 Billion Less Than Expected

Tesla Gains On EPS Beat, Crushes FCF Estimates... By Spending $3 Billion Less Than Expected

Ahead of today's print, the Street had braced for Tesla (TSLA) to burn about $5 billion in the quarter. Instead it generated $1.5 billion.

Tesla reported Q3 results after the close and, at least at first glance, it was a clean beat: adjusted EPS of 48 cents topped the 44 cent Bloomberg consensus, revenue of $28.05 billion came in bang in line (and flat from a year ago), and free cash flow of $1.53 billion crushed the consensus estimate of negative $4.99 billion. That's a swing of roughly $6.5 billion vs expectations, which we flagged the moment it hit the tape:

But before anyone pops the champagne, there is a catch. Actually, several. Below we look at what drove the "beat", where the money is going, and why the market couldn't care less about any of it with a SpaceX merger hanging overhead.

The CapEx That Wasn't

Let's start with the headline number. Tesla's CapEx came in at $4.73 billion in Q3, more than double the $2.25 billion from a year ago, but well below the $5.79 billion spent in Q2 and, more importantly, $3 billion short of the $7.77 billion consensus compiled by Tesla itself (which had also penciled in FCF of negative $4.51 billion).

In other words, roughly half of the FCF "beat" was simply money that Tesla didn't spend this quarter. Don't get us wrong: generating cash is better than burning it. But a cash beat that comes from deferred spending tends to come back to bite, usually in the very next quarter.

And bite it probably will. Recall that back in April Musk said Tesla would spend $25 billion on CapEx in 2026, a number which, as we pointed out after Q2 earnings, the company was nowhere near tracking. With $8.28 billion spent in H1 and another $4.73 billion in Q3, Tesla has spent about $13 billion through September. Napkin math says hitting the $25 billion target requires roughly $12 billion in Q4 alone (or about 2.5x what it spent this quarter). Either the guide gets cut on tonight's call, or Q4 free cash flow gets ugly. Pick one.

Paying For The Robot Future

Below the gross profit line, the story looked very much like Q2: Tesla is pouring money into what it now calls "Super Intelligence", Optimus and the Cybercab, and the spending is growing far faster than the profits that are supposed to fund it.

  • Operating expenses jumped 39% YoY to $4.78 billion, with R&D alone up 69% to $2.76 billion.

  • Stock-based comp, which now includes Elon's 2025 pay package, hit $1.17 billion, up from $663 million a year ago.

  • As a result, operating income fell 56% to $718 million, for an operating margin of just 2.6%, vs 5.8% a year ago.

Granted, that's an improvement from the dismal 1.4% margin in Q2, which sent the stock down about 15% the next day. But a 2.6% operating margin for a company with a $1.5 trillion market cap is... well, let's just say it's not why anyone owns the stock.

GAAP net income fell 43% to $787 million, or 22 cents a share, and even that got some help from a $288 million unrealized gain on Tesla's bitcoin, partly offset by a $142 million unrealized loss on its SpaceX stake. Diversification at its finest.

Margins Bounce... But "Batteries, Not Buyers"

The genuinely good news was on gross margin. Total gross margin rose to 19.6% from 18.0% a year ago (and 16.8% in Q2), while the number everyone watches - automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits - rebounded to 18.1% from 16.3% in Q2 and 15.4% a year ago. Tesla credited better regional and product mix and more FSD subscription revenue, partly offset by (once again) lower average selling prices.

That last point is worth dwelling on, because Tesla has a new explanation for its flat sales. According to the shareholder deck, battery availability "continued to be the limiting factor" on auto volumes, and the company says it exited Q3 with its biggest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years.

Supply constrained? Perhaps. But deliveries were still down 2% YoY, Tesla delivered 22,141 more cars than it built (draining inventory to 11 days of supply from 15), "other models" (Cybertruck, Semi, S and X) collapsed 48%, and ASPs fell again. Translation: supply-constrained automakers don't usually cut prices.

Elsewhere:

  • Regulatory credits - once Tesla's favorite cash cow - shrank 73% YoY to just $113 million, and with automakers no longer paying federal fuel-economy penalties, that line isn't coming back.

  • Energy was the weak spot: revenue fell 16% to $2.88 billion (Tesla blamed tariff-related customer refunds) even as deployments rose 10% to 13.7 GWh, still short of the ~15.9 GWh analysts expected. Segment gross margin jumped to 33% from 20% in Q2.

  • Services and other was the bright spot, with revenue up 33% to $4.61 billion and record gross profit of $734 million.

  • Autonomy: active FSD subscriptions hit 1.74 million, up 67% (although that count includes upfront purchases, as defined in Musk's 2025 pay package... funny how that works), while Robotaxi crossed roughly 2 million cumulative unsupervised miles, a month after the Cybercab joined the Austin fleet.

Tesla ended the quarter with $45.4 billion in cash and investments, which should come in handy if that $25 billion CapEx plan is still a thing.

Nobody Is Trading The Earnings Anyway

Which brings us to the real story. For all the line-item drama above, the stock didn't rip: after closing up 3.4% at $386.47, TSLA was up about another 1% after hours at last check (admittedly breaking to 3 month highs)...

And it's not hard to see why.

Just one day earlier, SpaceX reported a blowout quarter and Musk confirmed that both companies have formed special committees to discuss a merger. As Goldman's consumer desk put it in its morning note (available to pro subs):

Elon Musk endorsed a potential SpaceX–Tesla combination, which would be the largest corporate merger ever, as both boards formed independent special committees; no terms are settled, and Musk cautioned Tesla shareholder support may be difficult.

The desk also noted that the $1.5 trillion carmaker remains down 17% YTD, while its would-be partner trades at a $2 trillion valuation. Meanwhile, Goldman's prime book reports that Mag 7 net exposure "has risen to a new record high", even as hedge funds dumped tech at a record pace over the past two weeks. In short: everyone is already in the trade.

For those keeping score, here is what Musk said about a merger just three months ago, on the Q2 call:

Something tells us tonight's call will be a little more talkative.

The Roadster Was The Easy Part

Let's be fair: by Tesla's recent standards, this was a decent quarter. Gross margins are recovering, the company is cash-flow positive, and the core auto business has stopped shrinking (for now). But strip out the capex shortfall, and Tesla is a business whose operating income has halved in a year to fund a robot future that, much like last week's flying Roadster, keeps arriving "soon".

The bulls will say none of that matters if Tesla becomes the earthbound arm of a $3.5 trillion Musk conglomerate. And they may be right, at least until the merger math has to be done in a proxy statement. But a company that needs to spend $12 billion in one quarter to hit its own capex target, while its legacy cash cow (regulatory credits) dies, is going to need SpaceX a lot more than SpaceX needs it.

Of course, what really matters with this stock is what Musk says during the call at 1730ET.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 16:20

"Pure Evil": Musk Goes Nuclear On Talarico As George W.'s Brother Does 180

"Pure Evil": Musk Goes Nuclear On Talarico As George W.'s Brother Does 180

In Texas, everything is bigger. That includes the money, the insults and the family feuds.

Two weeks before Election Day, with early voting already under way, the most expensive Senate race in US history got its two most viral moments on the same day. Shortly before 2pm ET, the world's richest man, who has bankrolled much of the GOP effort to save Ken Paxton, quote-tweeted a four-minute supercut of Democrat James Talarico and delivered his verdict: Pure Evil

Hours earlier, from the other end of the Republican family tree, came this:

In other words, the GOP establishment and the GOP's biggest donor are now openly campaigning on opposite sides of the same Senate seat. Below we walk through what Neil Bush actually said, how much money Musk has put behind Paxton, and why the race that decides the Senate may come down to who can persuade a Texan the other guy is the real threat.

"Character Matters More Than Party"

Neil Bush, 71, son of the late President George H.W. Bush and chair of his father's Points of Light nonprofit, wrote on Facebook on Tuesday, as first reported by Newsweek:

"I voted early today, and I voted for James Talarico for the United States Senate... I have been deeply troubled by Paxton's conduct as Texas Attorney General, particularly his decision to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election in other states in an effort to help Donald Trump remain in power."

He also brought up Paxton's 2023 impeachment by the GOP-controlled Texas House (Paxton was acquitted by the state Senate) and said, per The Hill, that Trump has done "enormous damage to the Republican party." He also gushed that Talarico's "faith appears to be a deeply rooted source of humility, compassion, and conviction rather than a political weapon."

It isn't just Neil. According to the Texas Gazette, FEC filings show George W.'s daughter Barbara gave $2,500 to Lone Star Rising PAC, the main pro-Talarico super PAC. The paper also cited a Fort Worth Star-Telegram column reporting that the former president took part in a Dallas fundraiser for six other GOP Senate candidates, with Paxton left off the list. Family dinners must be fun.

The $158 Million Rescue

Musk isn't just posting. As regular readers will recall from our Oct. 13 look at whether Elon can rescue Republicans in November, Musk put $158 million into the Senate Leadership Fund in September, and the money went straight to Texas PAC, the group backing Paxton. Reuters added the latest numbers on Wednesday:

*OUTSIDE GROUPS BACKING PAXTON HAVE SPENT ABOUT $239M, MORE THAN FIVE TIMES THE ~$45M BY LARGEST DEM-ALIGNED GROUPS

*COMBINED AD SPENDING IN RACE TOPS $500M, ON PACE FOR MOST EXPENSIVE SENATE CONTEST EVER

Talarico has made up the gap the old-fashioned way. His campaign says it raised $64 million from July through September, more than triple Paxton's haul, with 97% of donations under $100. Republican donor Dan Eberhart summed up the GOP view to Reuters: "I think the cavalry arrived just in the nick of time for Paxton."

"If The Terms Are Right"

And the candidate the cavalry is riding in to save? When he was asked about debating Talarico this week, Paxton came up with an unusual condition:

Talarico's answer, per TMZ, was to offer to hold the debate on TMZ. Put differently, the Democrat will debate anywhere, while the Republican wants the moderator vetted first. That's not a great look when your own side's message is that the other guy is the one hiding something. (Readers will recall Paxton's camp made hay of Talarico's two-week flu disappearance earlier this month.)

To Be Fair...

Musk's supporters will say the supercut speaks for itself. Every quote in it is attributed to Talarico, and lines like "God is non-binary" and "Prison is violence" are hard to square with the "pragmatic moderate" image Neil Bush is selling. For an electorate that has backed Republicans statewide for three decades, the culture-war framing may be exactly the right closing argument, which is presumably why the Musk-backed PAC has been running on it for weeks.

The polls are a coin toss. A University of Houston Hobby School poll (Oct. 10-15) had Talarico up 48-46, and CBS/YouGov (Oct. 8-16) had him ahead 51-49. Both are inside the margin of error. Close polls in Texas have also been false dawns for Democrats before.

Bushes, Billionaires And Ballots

The Paxton camp's line is that the old guard always sides with the Democrat over the fighter, and Musk is simply calling out a radical. Our summary is less so: when a Bush endorses the Democrat, the richest man alive calls that Democrat "pure evil," and the Republican won't debate unless CNN is barred, the GOP is running two campaigns in Texas at once, and they don't agree with each other. Texas could decide the Senate majority. Early voting ends Oct. 30, Election Day is Nov. 3, and we'll find out whether $239 million of outside money beats a $2,500 check from a Bush granddaughter.

Then again, if Talarico wins, Elon will have spent $158 million to prove Neil Bush right.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 15:45

Houthi Attack On Aramco Facility Kills Two; US Prepares More Diplomatic Evacuations In Riyadh

Houthi Attack On Aramco Facility Kills Two; US Prepares More Diplomatic Evacuations In Riyadh

Update(1540ET): A corrective from Reuters saying that the earlier alert for some diplomatic staff and their families to depart from the Gulf region actually only pertains to Saudi Arabia, amid the Houthi assault:

  • Earlier, Reuters reported said the US State Department is preparing to issue an ordered departure of some personnel and family members at US embassies across the Gulf.
  • Note, this update says just from Saudi Arabia, not the entire Gulf.

Meanwhile, more has emerged on the fresh Houthi targeting of a Saudi Aramco facility in the kingdom's eastern region.

"A drone targeting a facility at Aramco’s Shaybah oil field in the eastern region was intercepted on Wednesday morning, the state Saudi Press Agency reports, citing an energy ministry source," the report says. However, debris from the attack killed two people and injured two more, per Bloomberg, citing Saudi authorities. Additionally a vehicle was set on fire.

*  *  *

Update(1507ET):There's been earlier waves of diplomatic evacuations from Middle East embassies and consulates, amid what was prior Iranian retaliation on Washington allied-Gulf states, but now there looks to be another wave of urgent evacuations:

US officials says the US State Department is preparing to issue an ordered departure of some personnel and family members at US embassies across the Gulf.

Already these embassies were operating at likely minimal staffing levels. Via Reuters:

  • U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT IS SET TO ORDER THE DEPARTURE OF CERTAIN STAFF AND THEIR FAMILIES FROM AMERICAN EMBASSIES THROUGHOUT THE GULF - U.S. OFFICIALS
  • US PREPS DEPARTURE ORDER OF SOME STAFF FROM GULF EMBASSIES:RTRS
  • ARAMCO OIL FIELD IN EASTERN REGION ATTACKED: SPA

Oil spikes on these new headlines which portent new escalation - a possible coming major round 3 or US-Iran direct bombing:

Reuters cites officials who say they also expect escalation related to the Saud-Houthi war, also as more missile salvoes come out of Yemen on Wednesday.

*  *  *

There have been at least two more tanker attack incidents in Gulf waters and the Strait of Hormuz area over the last 24 hours.

First, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it received a delayed report of a projectile hitting a tanker off Iraq's coast, which occurred Tuesday. The tanker was struck reportedly thirty nautical miles off the coast of Al Faw, but the information has only emerged Wednesday. All crew members are said to be safe after the attack.

File image, Shafaq News-

And on Wednesday another ship was hit "by an unknown projectile" off the coast of Oman, close to the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a fire.

A fresh UKMTO report indicated the tanker is 11 nautical miles off the town of Bukha. The vessel is deemed "now at anchor" and all crew are safe and account for, with no reports of environmental impact.

Iranian state media is also reporting the latest attack. Tehran seeks for these assaults, which have been coming at record pace for the month of October, to be made as public as possible. It hopes to squeeze the Trump administration politically, imposing an economic cost on Americans, headed into the November midterm elections.

In the midst of all of this The Wall Street Journal, citing Kpler, has issued some surprising conclusions on Wednesday:

Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East oil flows, including shipments through Hormuz and alternative routes across the region, averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through Oct. 18, surpassing prewar levels of 23.3 million, according to ship tracker Kpler. 

Preliminary figures show Hormuz oil flows, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, came to around 14 million barrels a day on average for the same period, or 82% of prewar levels.

Still, the same report also emphasizes that "Thinning global inventories leave little margin for error. The operation is also expensive, costs that ultimately flow through to consumers at the pump.

As for stalled negotiation efforts, Iranian media reports that Tehran informed Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir on Tuesday that Tehran's conditions stand firm, and that talks won't materialize until these demands are met.

There are fears all-out war could resume after the November midterm elections in the US:

Washington wants a focus of these talks to be the nuclear file, while Iran has not budged in its insistence that this is not on the table. Iran's leaders have consistently said that the nuclear issue can only be dealt with after there is a permanent peace deal.

* * *

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 15:40

BMO Looks Past Winnebago's Soft RV Outlook, Points To Market Share Gains

BMO Looks Past Winnebago's Soft RV Outlook, Points To Market Share Gains

Winnebago shares jumped in the early cash session as Wall Street analysts shrugged off the weaker-than-expected earnings forecast and instead focused on market share gains across the RV market, as well as the company's cost-cutting strategy and improving motorhome operations.

"Even as market pressure across our segments persisted, we began to see encouraging early signs across several strategic initiatives: real traction in the Winnebago Motorhome transformation, stabilizing share trends and improving market share at Grand Design Towables, growing market penetration for Grand Design Motorized, and impressive share growth at Winnebago Towables," CEO Michael Happe wrote in the earnings release.

BMO Capital Markets leisure analyst Tristan Thomas-Martin noted, "Despite a tough macro backdrop, WGO took market share in the quarter behind new product momentum."

Winnebago forecast fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings of $1.65 to $2.25 a share, well below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $2.20. Revenue is expected to reach $2.65 billion to $2.80 billion, compared with the $2.79 billion estimate.

Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings came in at around 49 cents a share, marginally higher than the 48-cent analyst estimate, although revenue tumbled 17% to $645.1 million, missing expectations of $659.2 million.

We have extensively covered the multi-year downturn in the RV market, especially following the boom during the Covid-19 era, fueled by cheap money. Higher interest rates followed shortly afterward, curbing buyers' ability to finance RVs cheaply.

Winnebago also revealed that any sustainable recovery in the RV market is not a near-term story. It expects North American RV wholesale shipments to be 265,000 to 295,000 units in 2027, with retail demand softening due to elevated interest rates.

Raymond James analyst Joseph Altobello wrote in a note that fourth-quarter results were "largely as expected" amid the RV market downturn.

"The FY27 outlook reflects a still-challenging demand environment and limited visibility into a broader industry recovery, with ongoing cost/footprint actions and Motorhome improvement partially offsetting soft retail demand and continued Towable pressure," Altobello said.

Winnebago shares soared as much as 8.6% in the early cash session. Year to date, shares are down 39% and have lost 74% of their value since peaking at around $87.53 in March 2021.

Any meaningful rebound in RV demand would require a lower-interest-rate regime. If the AI bubble implodes, then certaintly cheap RVs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 15:00

"Polished But Rough": First Major Review Casts Doubt On Foldable iPhone Duo's Mass Adoption

"Polished But Rough": First Major Review Casts Doubt On Foldable iPhone Duo's Mass Adoption

Tech YouTuber Marques Brownlee, who has more than 21 million subscribers, offered a mixed first take on Apple's foldable iPhone Duo ahead of its Friday release, describing the device as "very polished around the edges, but kind of rough in the middle."

Brownlee's review of Apple's first foldable iPhone may present a hurdle to adoption. At more than $2,000, the Duo's first-generation shortcomings could make buyers reluctant to pay the hefty premium, prompting some to wait for a second generation.

"It's $2,000 to get an iPad mini that can fit in your pocket. 120 Hz iPad Mini OLED fits in your pocket. Have you ever wanted that? They made it. They did it. Great. This is the first generation. It's made for you. But also, yeah, it is it is polished but rough," Brownlee noted.

The Duo is slightly thicker and heavier than the latest Samsung Galaxy Z Fold, a difference Brownlee said "makes a big difference in daily use."

After testing the Duo for a week, he said, "you would be happy if it were 20% lighter."

Brownlee pointed out that the battery capacity is about 4,900 mAh, split across the two halves. With typical mixed use (roughly 75% closed and 25% open), Brownlee called it a "very efficient phone" and "an all-day phone and then some," regularly finishing the day with more than 30% battery remaining.

The dual rear cameras (48 MP main and ultra-wide) are "right on par with the rest of the foldables" and "solid" most of the time, though the smaller main sensor gets noisier in weaker light and there is no optical zoom, he explained.

He continued, "The app situation on the iPhone Duo is its biggest downside right now."

"I think after the learning curve and getting used to not having Face ID, this is a really fun phone to use," he added.

Brownlee's verdict is mixed:

If you are the iPhone filmmaker who wants the absolute best cameras to go shoot their next thing, no. Uh if you're the type of person who breaks your phone every like nine months cuz you drop it all the time, yep, probably no. But if the $2,000 or the difference between 35 and 55 bucks a month doesn't mean much to you and you just kind of like the idea and want to jump in, I think after the learning curve and and getting used to not having Face ID, this is a really fun phone to use.

And it's really just cuz that polish, that polish around the edges goes a long way towards the fun factor. So, the awesome animations, the incredible hinge, the wonderful inside display, like all of that is just really nice and it hides a little bit of the rough core. Like, it will feel a little heavy sometimes and not all your favorite apps will be updated right out the box, but it is fun.

Apple can't completely engineer their way around the compromises of this form factor, like the slightly worse battery and the slightly worse speakers and the slightly worse cameras. Like, that's just physics. But what they have done is an admirable job with their first generation. Now, I'm just going to have to cross my fingers that second generation actually listens to some of that core feedback cuz that could be an amazing phone.

Watch The Duo Review Here Before Buying

Last Friday, when preorders for the Duo opened, we pointed out the incredible initial demand as delivery estimates slipped further and further beyond this Friday by the minute.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Duo's estimated delivery date is January 22.

The question remains whether the Duo, at a base price of $2,000, can achieve mass adoption, given that Tim Cook's $3,400 Vision Pro was a total disaster. Now it's John Ternus' turn to prove to investors that Apple still has demand for its premium products.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 14:45

1% Of Companies Account For 80% Of OpenAI And Anthropic Spending - And It Just Stalled

1% Of Companies Account For 80% Of OpenAI And Anthropic Spending - And It Just Stalled

Just 1% of companies account for 80% of all business spending on OpenAI and Anthropic, according to corporate card giant Ramp, which tracks payments across more than 70,000 U.S. businesses. Ramp lead economist Ara Kharazian, who flagged the figure in early September, noted that spending on the two AI labs is more concentrated than in any other software category the firm tracks.

Per capita, the biggest spenders are overwhelmingly venture-backed. According to Ramp's summer report, the median VC-backed startup spent $76 per employee per month on AI - more than ten times the $7 spent at private equity-backed firms.

That top-heavy dynamic mirrors what YipitData uncovered at Anthropic specifically: the lab's top 1% of customers generated 46% of its revenue in August, nearly doubling from 25% a year earlier. How many of those whale customers, we asked at the time, are funded by the very same VCs backing Anthropic?

Anthropic's IPO prospectus - the updated version of which we dissected yesterday - confirms the concentration at the very top: just two unnamed customers generated nearly a quarter of its 2025 revenue, according to Reuters. Their identities aren't hard to guess. Last year, two AI coding tools - Cursor and Microsoft's GitHub Copilot - drove roughly $1.2 billion of Anthropic's $5 billion annualized revenue run-rate, as VentureBeat reported.

Follow the money. Cursor's parent company, Anysphere, raised $2.3 billion at a $29.3 billion valuation last November in a round co-led by Accel and Coatue, alongside Thrive Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Nvidia, and Google. Three months later, Coatue and Singapore's GIC led Anthropic's massive $30 billion Series G, with Nvidia again participating. Coatue's cash flows into Cursor, Cursor spends it on Claude tokens, those tokens book as Anthropic revenue, and that revenue underwrites the markups on Coatue's Anthropic stake.

Even the scorekeeper is inside the loop. Ramp itself raised $1.85 billion at a $60 billion valuation last week in a round led by Dragoneer, Thrive, Founders Fund, Sands Capital, and Avenir Growth. Its cap table also features Coatue, D1, ICONIQ, GIC, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, General Catalyst, and Lightspeed - every single one of which, alongside Dragoneer and Founders Fund, backed Anthropic's Series G.

Volumes Up, Dollars Flat

Yet it is Ramp's own economist who is documenting the cracks in the facade. In his October AI Index - pointedly titled "Cracks in the AI Thesis Part 3" - Kharazian reported that the top 1% of AI-spending firms shelled out $9,568 per employee in September. While that was up 11.7% from August, it remained 3.1% below July's peak of $9,873.

Across the broader cohort, the stall is even starker. In August and September, Ramp recorded "two straight months of virtually no growth in token spend," even as raw token volumes continued to climb.

Total dollar spend did eke out a new high in early October, but cleared its previous August peak by a paltry 1.5%.

Source: Ramp Rate

The culprit, according to Kharazian, is deflation: "the main driver is price declines at the frontier, in addition to efficiency and quality improvements for models across intelligence levels, that are driving the blended price per million tokens down."

Source: Ramp Rate

Nor have the AI labs been able to lock in their biggest customers. Asked whether OpenAI and Anthropic are using enterprise contracts to guarantee revenue, Kharazian noted that buyers hold all the leverage. Enterprise deals are rarely signed on the assumption of higher-than-normal spend, and when they are, "the labs are willing to provide concessions in the form of discounts on models from the sticker price." His takeaway: "These contracts could contribute to price cuts without driving additional volume."

The customer base isn't widening much, either. Paid AI adoption across Ramp's corporate network nudged up just 0.62 percentage points to 55.9% in September. "It feels like we're at the top of the S-curve," Kharazian wrote, "where the growth in the market will have to come from more intense adoption rather than more customers."

Source: Ramp Rate

Anthropic Joins The Price War

Meanwhile, Anthropic's realized token price has been cut in half in just a month. The Ornn Anthropic Token Price Index - which measures the actual dollars customers pay per token consumed - has cratered to $0.83 per million tokens from over $1.70 in mid-September, marking a record low since the benchmark launched in June.

Even after that plunge, Anthropic remains pricier than OpenAI, whose index sits at $0.45. OpenAI's realized pricing collapsed in late July after it slashed rates on its GPT-5.6 Luna and Terra models by up to 80% - just three days after Chinese lab Moonshot released the open weights for Kimi K3, the model blamed for sending chip stocks into a bear market earlier that month. OpenAI has since reportedly leaned toward delaying its IPO until 2027.

Jevons Isn't Riding To The Rescue

The bulls' reflex answer to relentless price cuts is Jevons paradox: make tokens cheap enough, and usage will explode so fast that total revenue rises anyway. The data isn't cooperating. In a Sept. 25 note, Goldman Sachs warned that "token demand growth will need to outpace declining token prices to support continued growth in investment spending," noting that while "frontier models are currently a key source of demand for hyperscaler compute," cheap open-source rivals are rapidly gaining ground. By Goldman's estimate - built on Anera and OpenRouter data - total token demand has surged roughly 18-fold since December, but demand for high-margin frontier models has grown only half as fast.

That margin squeeze is now flowing directly upstream to the companies building the data centers. Goldman calculates that realized return on invested capital (ROIC) across Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle has fallen from 40% to 25% - the lowest reading in its dataset going back to 2016.

On Tuesday - the same day Citadel's Ken Griffin told Bloomberg that markets are "almost certainly" in an AI bubble - Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok diagnosed the underlying demand problem. "Silicon Valley operates on the premise that compute demand is unlimited, yet the recent slowdown in token spending growth suggests that this appetite may exist only when compute is effectively free," Slok wrote, citing Ramp's figures. Instead of inelastic hunger, compute faces "a flat, highly price-sensitive demand curve, where even modest changes in token prices can drive buyers to throttle usage or substitute cheap open-source alternatives."

"Ultimately, the number-one variable governing the viability of data center construction models is not physical capacity or power; it is the actual price users are willing to pay for the compute being built," Slok concluded. Corporate buyers will only pay a premium if they can translate tokens into "higher top-line growth, bigger profit margins or substantial cost savings, little of which is showing up at scale yet. Maybe that will come in the future. Maybe not."

Back in June, Ramp product director Adam Sommer boasted to a New York panel that "our largest AI spenders at Ramp are seeing their spend double month-over-month for the last several months." Three months later, the top 1% were spending less per employee than they had in July.

//-->

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 14:30

Pollster Cited By NY Times, Other Outlets Admits It's Fake

Pollster Cited By NY Times, Other Outlets Admits It's Fake

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A purported company whose polls were listed by a slew of outlets, including The New York Times, has said that all but one of its surveys were not real.

Wedgewood Polling said in a statement on Oct. 20 that it was developed by people who previously worked in the poll sector and wondered how easy it would be for a fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and "expose how little scrutinization exists in media and public commentary."

The entity said that its surveys often did not have any real data behind them, but they were nonetheless included in poll averages by the NY Times and some other outlets.

"Our fabricated numbers were given instant credibility across national media platforms - including being cited on air and in reporting by outlets such as MS Now," Wedgewood Polling said. "The ease with which unverified figures were absorbed into mainstream political narratives highlights a systemic breakdown in media vetting and data aggregation."

The surveys largely favored Democrats, including having Democrat candidate Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican candidate Mike Rogers in the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan.

Wedgewood Polling conducted a single legitimate poll, in Nebraska, that served as a baseline to compare against fake data.

Wedgewood Polling said it did not intend to mislead the public or sway an election, and that the purpose was to spark changes in the polling and media industries.

Decision Desk HQ said on X on Wednesday that it removed 17 polls from Wedgewood Polling in light of the company's admission.

"As polling and averages are a component of our forecast model, we have rerun the model and all of our forecasts now reflect the removal of the fraudulent data," Decision Desk said. "The removal of these polls has not changed the projected seat totals or chamber control probabilities in the Senate or House."

Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, another poll aggregator, said on X on Tuesday that he contacted Wedgewood Polling's head pollster after the company first appeared, and that the individual said he was a college student who had experience in the polling space. The conversation led to VoteHub including polls from the company on its website.

"A few years ago, I was a college student following politics as a hobby myself, so I try to give people in that position the benefit of the doubt," Donnini said. "It's disappointing to see how this has unfolded, because it's going to be a ... lot harder for the next college kid who's actually well-intentioned and super into politics to break into the space after this."

FiftyPlusOne, which had also included Wedgewood Polling surveys, said on Tuesday that it had sent questions about the polls to the company prior to the admission that most of its polls were fake. It said the questions prompted the disclosure.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 14:15

Are Bonds Pricing In A Fed Policy Mistake?

Are Bonds Pricing In A Fed Policy Mistake?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Imagine someone looking into their crystal ball and telling you at the beginning of October that the coming September CPI data would be higher than expected, and producer prices (PPI) would rise 1.3% for the month, well above the 0.5% forecast. On top of the bad inflation news, they also said more inflation pressure was brewing, with crude oil prices rising $10 through the first two weeks of the month. Based on that foresight, where would you guess the 10-year Treasury yield would be? To help you answer, the ten-year US Treasury yield was flirting with 5.25% on October 1. We bet most professional bond traders would have bet on 5.50% or even higher.

On October 14th, the 10-year Treasury yield surged after the CPI report, hitting 5.33% minutes after the release. A few days later, it was markedly lower at 5.03%. The 30-year yield fell by a similar amount. Bonds rallied into the teeth of the bad inflation data.

Mohamed El-Erian, ex CEO of PIMCO and renowned bond expert, asked the obvious question on X:

Why are US government bond yields falling despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation prints?

He offered two valid rationalizations. In this article, we walk through his two AI-related explanations and add two of our own. Importantly, we emphasize one we think matters most: the bond market may be starting to price in the risk that the Fed is being pushed into a policy mistake.

Explanation One: A Flight To Quality Out Of Tech

El-Erian's first driver is a flight to quality "out of formerly high-flying tech stocks that are now coming under pressure."

  • Many semiconductor stocks have been under pressure. The SOX semiconductor index fell almost 20% between October 1 and the PPI release on the 15th.
  • The Nasdaq, with a large semiconductor weighting, fell in sympathy. Foreign markets, including the tech-heavy Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei, were also down sharply.
  • As we show below, healthcare (XLV), consumer staples (XLP) and other beaten-up value sectors have rallied since October 1, while technology (XLK) moved in the opposite direction. This rotation was primarily a flight to quality within the equity market, but El-Erian thinks it may have also sparked some bond buying.

Additionally, El-Erian notes there are "emerging pockets of credit stress in the most vulnerable segments." To his point, CoreWeave, a large data center provider, saw yields on its debt rise from 9% to 15%. Because investors are demanding such high yields for CoreWeave's debt and some of its competitors, there is a growing concern that CoreWeave might be the AI trade's canary in the coal mine.

Credit-related issues, such as those noted, often lead to a flight to quality from corporate bonds to US Treasuries.

Explanation Two: Is Tech Still A Growth Engine?

El-Erian's second driver carries broader macroeconomic implications. AI-related capital spending has been a primary engine of economic growth. If investors are less willing to fund the AI build-out, and if firms can't afford to fund it, does the economic growth outlook dim?

Saxo's Charu Chanana noted:

Investors are becoming less willing to finance AI infrastructure growth at any cost.

With 10-year yields above 5% and some AI-related credit spreads at junk bond levels, the cost of financing data centers has risen sharply. Less AI capex means less GDP growth, and lower expected growth argues for lower inflation, which results in lower long-term yields.

Explanation Three: Short Covering And Signs Of Significant Demand

Our first addition to El-Erian's list is short covering. The bond market entered October leaning heavily toward higher yields.

To wit, CFTC data showed asset managers added more than 100,000 contracts to their short 10-year Treasury futures exposure in the week ending September 22, one of the largest weekly additions since 2023, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, open interest in 10-year futures rose in 13 of 14 sessions through late September, and in 5-year futures in 11 of 12 sessions. Those are consistent with new short positions being added as yields rose.

The 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions on October 7th and 8th appear to have foreshadowed the reversal. Many investors expected weak demand for the new supply of debt. They got the opposite. Per our Commentary Bond Auctions: You Never Hear About The Good Ones:

The 10-year note auction on Wednesday sold $39 billion at a 5.300% high yield. It stopped 1.7 basis points through the when-issued level, meaning it cleared much better than the market expected. Thursday's 30-year $22.5 billion bond auction was similar. The box plots below, courtesy of Exante Data, show how far outside normal both readings sit. The bid-to-cover measures the amount of dollars bid for every dollar sold. The 10-year came in at 2.77 compared to a twelve-month average of 2.51, higher than any of the last 50 auctions. The 30-year was 2.54 against a 2.40 median, at the upper edge of the last 50 auctions.

Primary dealer participation may be the most important auction statistic. The Treasury's primary dealers must bid and absorb whatever nobody else wants. When an auction has a high percentage dealer take, it means the auction struggled, and Wall Street got stuck with inventory. Dealers took a mere 2.5% of the 10-year, their lowest share on record for the tenor, and 6.8% of the 30-year. Indirect bidders, largely foreign central banks and domestic institutions, took 80.3% and 72.3%, both far above their averages.

When dealers are left buying little at Treasury auctions, as we saw, it means real money buyers are absorbing supply at these yields. While the bond market didn't rally on the strong auctions, it certainly put short sellers on notice that demand was robust at yields above 5%. The rising demand may have prompted Treasury-bond buying to cover short positions. Given how offside the market was, the buying created a circular effect, forcing more short sellers to cover.

Explanation Four: The Bond Market Smells A Policy Mistake

The bond market may be beginning to believe that this month's hot inflation data will force the Fed's hand toward more, not fewer, rate hikes, ultimately resulting in a policy error.

The yield curve's changing shape over the past two weeks supports our view. The 2yr-10yr yield curve was 57 basis points on October 7th. Following the CPI and PPI reports, it flattened to 32 basis points. That's a relatively large 25-basis-point decline in two weeks, with most of it occurring on the days of the inflation data.

When all yields decline, but long-end yields fall more than short-term yields, that is called a bull flattener. A market that expects the Fed to tighten into a weakening economy buys long bonds and flattens the curve. A market fearing runaway inflation should result in a bear steepener reaction.

The front end of the yield curve prices the odds of Fed rate hikes. The long end is pricing the consequences.

Reasons To Fret A Policy Mistake

There are a few reasons we think the bond market should worry about the Fed.

First, the recent increase in inflation is largely a supply shock. Gasoline and diesel prices are rising because of the conflict with Iran, not because consumers are overheating. The Fed can't produce oil, but it can reduce demand for everything else.

Second, the labor market is weak. September payrolls rose just 29,000 and prior months were revised down by 60,000. Furthermore, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and real earnings are flat to slightly negative, leaving little evidence of an inflationary wage-price spiral.

Third, consumers are being squeezed. The most recent retail sales beat estimates at 0.8%, but gasoline sales drove most of the gain. To wit, the Control Group, which the BEA uses in its GDP calculation, rose only 0.1. Essentially, higher gas prices are crowding out other spending.

Fourth, Fed policy is already restrictive by the Fed's own math. The September rate hike raised Fed Funds to 3.75% to 4.00%, above the Fed's own estimate of the longer-run neutral rate at 3.20%. The median dot plots in the latest Fed Economic Projections (SEP), along with commentary from some Fed members, suggest another rate hike or two is quite possible.

Lastly, financial conditions are tightening. The 10-year yield above 5%, 30-year mortgage rates near 7.50%, an 18-month high in the dollar, and widening credit spreads are all doing the Fed's work. Fed Funds rate hikes make financial conditions even more restrictive.

The Hawks Case

To be fair, Fed hawks have a rational case for raising rates further. The recent CPI report showed broader price increases across many goods and services, core PCE running near 3%, and, probably more importantly, inflation has been above the Fed's target for more than five years. The Fed is rightly concerned about inflation expectations becoming unanchored.

But the bond market is not voting on whether inflation is too high or what it has been. It is voting on where inflation will be and whether the Fed's inflation cure will not only heal the patient of its inflation problem but bring on recessionary side effects.

Summary

Falling bond yields amid hot inflation data are not a paradox. They reflect a flight to quality out of tech, doubts about AI as a growth engine, the unwinding of crowded short positions, and strong demand.

Most importantly, in our view, they signal concern that the Fed is responding to an energy-driven inflation shock and that inflation has been too high for too long, tightening into a slowing economy. The shape of the yield curve and the direction of long-end yields offer a good roadmap for what may happen next.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 13:45

China 'Already Preparing' Trilateral Summit With US & Russia, Likely For November: Kremlin

China 'Already Preparing' Trilateral Summit With US & Russia, Likely For November: Kremlin

There's lots of talk of big trilateral meetings in the middle of this week, as some major parallel diplomacy is currently happening in St. Petersburg.

President Vladimir Putin's meeting with US special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff has wrapped up, but already China is also in the house. Significantly, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is second-highest-ranking official in the country's Communist Party (CCP) hierarchy, under President Xi Jinping. He's meeting with Putin just after the Witkoff summit

Putin aide Yury Ushakov has in comments to reporters revealed that China has already begun preparing a trilateral meeting among the leaders of Russia, the US and China.

He indicated that could happen on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen "if circumstances are favorable." This would be in just under a month, scheduled for November 17-18, 2026.

Ushakov said: "Our Chinese friends, who are hosting the APEC summit, will deal or rather are already dealing with its [the trilateral meeting] preparation. And if circumstances are favourable, they, our Chinese friends, will of course include this meeting in the program of events in Shenzhen."

Some further details laid out in Ushakov's briefing, via Bloomberg:

  • Potential meeting has been worked on at expert level, Ushakov says
  • Meeting would require all three leaders to be in same place at same time
  • Experts have outlined key topics for potential trilateral meeting at APEC summit
  • A single meeting between Putin, Trump and Xi wouldn't be enough to resolve war in Ukraine, Ushakov says.
via Sputnik

One journalist and pundit described of Wednesday's remarkable events in Russia's second-largest city:

There’s an extraordinary diplomatic coincidence in St. Petersburg today. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is arriving to discuss peace in Ukraine, just as Chinese Premier Li Qiang, second only to Xi Jinping in Beijing’s political hierarchy, visits the city.

Peter the Great built St. Petersburg as Russia’s window onto the rest of Europe. Three centuries later, it will see Russia, America and China can discuss Europe’s affairs without troubling the EU.

Ukraine's Zelensky has meanwhile tried to insist that his country's fate cannot be determined without him or Ukrainian representatives at the table.

On this, Trump said earlier this week: "I'm supporting stopping the war between Russia and Ukraine... Frankly, Zelensky is not helping matters much. I think he doesn't want to stop it. I want to see people not die."

President Trump has meanwhile suggested that any future trilateral meeting would also focus on nuclear proliferation issues. Secretary of State Rubio has further hinted at this...

We detailed Sunday that Putin reportedly first floated the idea of a trilateral meeting in an Oct. 9 phone call with Trump. That conversation also produced a deal for the US to buy Russian diesel fuel and facilitate its sale on the global market. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that discussions were taking place over a potential meeting. 

A potential three-way dialogue on Chinese soil would mark a big step for Xi in his efforts to elevate China’s role as a diplomatic power broker, said analysts who study China. Russian officials proposed the idea to Beijing through diplomatic channels and the Chinese side has indicated it wouldn’t object if Trump is on board. 

Russian media captures some of Wednesday's high level dialogue:

In the wake of prior late Sunday reports, Trump declared that he is indeed open to participating in a trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin (but without Zelensky's involvement). Trump also offered that could be focused on denuclearization.

"I would do it" - Trump stated multiple times in Monday comments, stipulating that he'd like to see it happen if President Xi were on board, and saying it would likely be in China (since Xi just recently visited the US).

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 13:30

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