Trump May Pull Out Of 'Paper Tiger' NATO After Starmer Stiffs Strait Support

In a blistering exclusive interview with The Telegraph, President Trump has declared he is "strongly considering" pulling the United States out of NATO, branding the 77-year-old alliance a "paper tiger" after European allies - including the UK under Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer - refused to join America’s military campaign against Iran or help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump told the newspaper the decision was now “beyond reconsideration,” adding: “I was never swayed by Nato. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way.” He singled out Britain, mocking its naval capabilities and Starmer’s green-energy focus: “You don’t even have a navy. You’re too old and had aircraft carriers that didn’t work… All Starmer wants is costly windmills that are driving your energy prices through the roof.”

The row erupted after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz - through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil flows - in response to US-Israeli strikes launched on February 28. Allies have been reluctant to deploy warships, prompting Trump to accuse NATO of operating a “one-way street.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the president on Fox News, warning that America would have to “re-examine” its NATO membership once the Iran conflict ends. “If Nato is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but them denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement,” Rubio said. Trump later told The Telegraph he was “glad” Rubio had spoken out.

Starmer Fires Back: “This Is Not Our War”

Starmer moved quickly to reaffirm Britain’s commitment to NATO while drawing a firm line on the Iran conflict. “This is not our war, and we’re not going to get dragged into it,” he told The Telegraph, describing the alliance as “the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen.” He signalled a pivot toward closer European cooperation “whatever the noise” from Washington.

Absolute humiliation for the White House. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly brushes off Donald Trump's threats to leave NATO. He explicitly states that despite massive pressure from Washington, Britain will never be dragged into this disastrous war on Iran. pic.twitter.com/vkniEBVSW5

— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) April 1, 2026

The UK’s military vulnerabilities have only added fuel to the fire. On Tuesday, the First Sea Lord admitted the Royal Navy was not ready for war. Four of Britain’s six destroyers were out of service at the conflict’s start, forcing London to borrow a German warship to meet NATO obligations in the North Atlantic.

Any formal US withdrawal would require Congressional approval under 2023 legislation co-sponsored by Rubio himself. However, experts note Trump could still gut American participation by pulling troops, bases, and command support - effectively hollowing out the alliance without a full exit.

Trump is expected to deliver a national address on Wednesday evening outlining the Iran war’s status and, according to Reuters sources, to voice further disgust at NATO’s lack of reciprocity.

As oil prices spiral and recession fears mount, the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz has exposed raw fractures in the Western alliance. Whether Trump’s latest broadside is negotiation theatre or the beginning of America’s strategic retreat from Europe remains to be seen — but the “paper tiger” label has already left its mark.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 12:20

"Finish This Thing, Finish It Right": JPM CEO Jamie Dimon Weighs In On Iran War

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon appeared on Fox & Friends on Tuesday, covering everything from artificial intelligence to the economy to the continuing exodus from radical-left blue states. More notably, he offered his views on the U.S.-Iran war, which this week entered its fifth week and has remained at the center of the news cycle.

Dimon was first asked about the energy shock from the US-Iran conflict and whether surging fuel prices would impact the American economy.

"Look the markets are unpredictable and it's hard to for me to tell you exactly what," Dimon said of a potential impact.

"But I think they're just looking at, is there a chance something can go wrong now? We should all hope nothing goes wrong. We should all hope that … we win this thing and clean up the straits and that Iran is no longer a threat to everybody. The markets will be concerned until it's over."

Dimon added, "It's much more important that this be successfully completed than what the market does."

He noted, "Yes, I hear people say they were not an imminent threat. But these people have been engaged in violent acts for 47 years, killing people, killing Americans, and funding Hamas. Several Americans were killed on October 7. They have fought proxy wars and threatened people. A ballistic missile can travel 3,000 miles. These are bad people who needed to be stopped. I do not know what the military and the president know, but we have to finish this thing and finish it right." 

Layered on top of Dimon's comments yesterday is a broader geopolitical framework laid out earlier this month by Zoltan Pozsar of Ex Uno Plures.

In Pozsar's view, the Trump administration is "methodically building a portfolio of assets" from Venezuela to the Panama Canal to Iran's oil flows and the Strait of Hormuz, a strategy aimed at reasserting American dominance, securing the empire for years to come, and tightening the screws on Beijing after last year's rare earths stunt.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 12:00

Aluminum Supply Shock: Top Gulf Producer Halts Operations After Iran Strike, Price To Spike

Over the weekend, both Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) - the largest aluminum producers in the Gulf - and Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) reported drone attacks damaging smelting facilities after hits on Iranian steel infrastructure last week.

Neither company (at the time) confirmed whether supply will be impacted, but this morning the worst case appears to be confirmed with Reuters reporting that according to a Wednesday note by consultancy Wood Mackenzie "EGA's Al Taweelah facility in the United Arab Emirates halted operations after an Iranian missile and drone attack on Saturday damaged a power plant." A subsequent report from Bloomberg confirmed the report, writing that "Emirates Global Aluminium, the Middle East’s top producer of the metal, halted operations at its Al Taweelah smelter after the site was struck by Iranian missiles and drones over the weekend, according to a person familiar with the matter."

At the same time, the smelter belonging to Aluminium Bahrain – Alba – which was also targeted on Saturday, “sustained significant damages and is expected to operate at an estimated utilisation of 30 percent”, Wood Mackenzie said.

“The ongoing Middle East conflict is triggering a critical supply crisis in the global aluminium market, with disruptions potentially removing 3 to 3.5 million tonnes of output in 2026,” Wood Mackenzie said. For context, the world produced just under 74 million tonnes of primary aluminum last year.

Wood Mackenzie’s press office said its information was sourced from the consultancy’s contacts in the Middle East, but declined to provide further details. 

As a reminder, the aluminum smelter in Al Taweelah, in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, has a capacity of roughly 1.5 million metric tonnes per year, and an alumina refinery. Alba’s capacity of 1.6 million tonnes per year in Bahrain makes it the world’s biggest single-site aluminium smelter. The Middle East as a whole produces about 9% of global supply, with EGA and others playing a key role in supplying manufacturers across Europe, Asia and the US. Even before the industry was directly targeted, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had already left the region’s major producers short of critical inputs, with the sector anticipating a cascading wave of production cuts unless the strait reopens soon.

As Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch writes, it's "hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide."

This is how the Goldman trader does the math on lost output:

Lost ALBA 1mm + EGA 1.6mm + Qatalam 0.3mm  + Mozal 0.6mm = 3.5m on a 74mt mkt = 4.7% impact to supply, and 7.7% of ex china supply

Balance this with Oil price demand destruction ~1mm, assume China overproduce and ship 500k - need to price demand destruction to balance ~2mt (inventory we see at ~1.5mt but majority of that is China link).

McGeoch says that in light of the shut downs, some traders have been eyeballing a significant surge in the aluminum price to $4500 (15% premium to LME for China is a clear starting point).

• The Goldman trader also writes that if the report is accurate, the market will first draw LME stocks, which is hard as not everyone can take Russian units, both regionally and financially.
• Second, market needs to solve for the China export tax.
• Third, it will be important to see China ramp supply, which means you have to convince them its a good use of power allocations.  

Aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange have surged since the strikes, with LME Aluminum trading up 50% from a year ago, and if production remains shuttered, it will likely move notably higher.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 11:52

The Kohn Solution For An Uncertain Fed

Via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Dario Perkins of TS Lombard wrote a piece titled “How to Respond to Oil Shocks.”

His analysis draws on the Fed’s history to address how it should respond to today’s oil shock.

While researching Fed transcripts from the 1990 Gulf War, he discovered a proposal by Don Kohn, senior Fed staffer, that offers a solution to the central bank’s oil shock problem: nominal GDP targeting.

Kohn’s logic is straightforward and makes sense in the current environment where the Fed is contemplating monetary policy as oil prices spike, simultaneously boosting inflation and reducing economic growth. Per Kohn, if those two forces balance out, the Fed should hold rates steady. But if one dominates, the Fed should respond: “hike if nominal GDP growth rises” and “cut if nominal GDP growth falls.”

In other words, a demand shock calls for higher rates, while a supply-side shock calls for lower rates.

Historically, as he shares in the table below, nominal GDP almost always falls after a supply-driven oil shock.

Today’s spike, driven by the Iranian conflict and “the Iranian weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz,” is unambiguously a supply shock. By the Kohn framework, the Fed should be cutting the Fed Funds rate, not considering hiking it.

The current counterargument is the high-inflation era of the 1970s, when central banks were allegedly too dovish on inflation and allowed inflation expectations to spiral out of control.

Perkins dismisses this comparison directly. To wit:

The 1973-74 recession “was one of the worst in history” and “in terms of its impact on unemployment, it was only slightly better than the GFC.”

Importantly, he notes that the 1970s featured widespread union membership and inflation-indexed wage contracts that caused wages to “accelerate even as the economy sank.”

That wage-price spiral is nonexistent today.

Thus, the inflationary danger of easing into an oil shock is considerably lower than the popular 1970s narrative suggests.

His conclusion: Central banks don’t need to hike today. In fact, if they follow the advice of Don Kohn, they will probably need to ease policy.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 11:40

Beyond Cheap Fish Oil: How A 5:1 DHA Ratio Powers Brain Health & Vision

Omega-3s are an amazing family of fats that our bodies can't make efficiently on their own. Long used for general heart and inflammation support, research shows that when formulated with a heavy emphasis on DHA plus targeted eye nutrients, they can support brain structure, cognitive performance, memory, attention, and eye/retinal health. 

Most people get very little DHA from their modern diet, especially with high intake of processed seed oils that compete with omega-3s. Studies suggest that boosting DHA intake with a targeted formula can support brain function in everyday healthy adults.

But before we get into the science...

We sell this unique Omega-3 formulation, so this is obviously an ad. As always, whether or not you buy from us - you should take note of what these studies have found when considering your daily supplement stack. 

Long story short, what we sell is a specialized 5:1 DHA-to-EPA ratio fish oil fortified with lutein and zeaxanthin (more on that below). It's designed specifically for brain and eye support. Support yourself & support the site - buy some here. 

Actual product:

And now for the science

Most people think “omega-3 = fish oil = heart health.” That's true for many standard formulas, but the type and ratio of omega-3s matter a lot when targeting the brain and eyes.

DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) is the dominant omega-3 actually built into brain cell membranes and retinal photoreceptors (making up ~50-60% of PUFAs in the retina and a major part of brain gray matter). It supports membrane fluidity, neural signaling, and visual processing. EPA is more involved in inflammation pathways. Standard cheap fish oils are often balanced or EPA-heavy. A DHA-dominant approach (like 5:1) better aligns with how the brain and eyes use these fats.

Brain Benefits in Healthy Adults

Studies on DHA-rich or high-DHA omega-3 supplementation in healthy (non-demented) adults have found:

• Improvements in memory performance, including episodic memory, working memory, and delayed recall
• Faster attention and quicker processing speed
• Particularly noticeable memory gains in healthy older adults or those with lower dietary DHA intake
• Benefits for cognitive function in people with suboptimal omega-3 status
• Associations with better brain structure measures (e.g., larger hippocampal volumes, greater white matter volume, and entorhinal cortex thickness)
• Modest but consistent effects across multiple randomized trials and meta-analyses

A 2025 dose-response meta-analysis of 58 studies (Nature) found that omega-3 supplementation was associated with modest but consistent improvements in attention, perceptual speed, language, primary memory, visuospatial function, and global cognition in adults. A 2013 randomized controlled trial showed that DHA supplementation improved episodic memory and reaction time of working memory tasks in healthy young adults with low dietary DHA intake (with some sex-specific effects).

The Eye Health Advantage: Lutein + Zeaxanthin

What really sets this formula apart is the addition of lutein and zeaxanthin - the only two carotenoids that accumulate in the macula (the central part of the retina responsible for sharp, detailed vision). 

They help:

• Filter blue light
• Reduce oxidative stress
• Support visual performance in high-screen environments

This matters because the retina is not separate from the brain - it is an extension of it. DHA provides structural support to retinal cells, while lutein and zeaxanthin provide protective and performance-enhancing effects.

The landmark AREDS2 trial and its long-term follow-up showed that lutein and zeaxanthin can safely support eye health and may help slow progression toward advanced age-related macular degeneration in certain populations, particularly those with lower dietary intake.

Why This Isn't "Regular" Omega-3

Cheap fish oils are inexpensive because they're often EPA-focused or balanced for broad inflammation/cardio support. IQ Ultimate is intentionally engineered differently:

• A much higher DHA-to-EPA ratio (5:1) to better match brain and retinal biology
• Fortified with lutein + zeaxanthin for direct macular support - something most standard omega-3s completely lack

If you're spending hours in front of screens, noticing subtle changes in focus or visual comfort as you age, or simply want to be proactive about long-term brain and eye resilience, this targeted formulation addresses needs that basic supermarket fish oil typically doesn't.

Safety and Practical Takeaways

Omega-3 fatty acids in triglyceride form have a strong safety record at standard supplemental doses. High-purity products tested for contaminants (like this one) are preferred. Consult your doctor if you're on blood thinners or have specific health conditions.

Cheap omega-3s are everywhere because they're easy to manufacture. This one is different because it's built for the two organs that run everything else in your life - your brain and your eyes.

We take it daily for that reason. If you're ready to upgrade from generic fish oil to something more targeted, grab a bottle of IQ Ultimate Omega-3 here.

This is for informational purposes only and not medical advice. Consult your doctor before starting any supplement.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 11:35

29 Killed In One Of Worst Russian Military Air Disasters Of Ukraine War

Russia has suffered one of its worst aerial disasters of the Ukraine war, as an An-26 Military Transport aircraft went down in Crimea with no survivors reported.

The aerial disaster happened Tuesday, with state media reporting that the aircraft slammed into a cliff during what was described as a routine flight over the Black Sea peninsula.

via TASS

All 29 onboard, including 23 passengers and six crew, were killed in the crash, marking one of the deadliest recent incidents involving Russian military aviation in the region.

Officials say the trouble began very quickly into the flight. "On 31 March at around 18:00 Moscow time, contact was lost with the An-26 military transport aircraft whilst it was on a scheduled flight over the Crimean Peninsula," the defense ministry said.

Shortly after, confirmation came from the ground: "The An-26 aircraft, with which communication was lost earlier, crashed into a cliff, it was reported to TASS from the site of the crash."

While no official cause has been confirmed, early indications point to possible technical failure, which if accurate would mark another blow to aging Soviet-era hardware still widely used across Russia’s military fleet, also as sweeping Western sanctions have been in effect, impacting aviation parts and software.

A huge search effort for bodies is ongoing and is difficult, given the crash happened in a mountainous region. Various emergency units - local and national - are involved.

Meanwhile, separately there are reports of a new drone attack on a Russian petrochemical plant:

"RUSSIA: Mass casualty event declared after a Ukrainian drone strike hit one of Russia’s largest petrochemical complexes, Nizhnekamskneftekhim"
[Amir Tsarfati post quoting Open Source Intel] pic.twitter.com/Hd5ZE9yOxl

— LarryE (@LarryE77197284) April 1, 2026

"A criminal case was opened into the crash of the aircraft due to alleged violations of Article 351 of the Russian Criminal Code which pertains to violations of flight rules or regulations governing flight preparation, according to a report from the Russian Investigative Committee press office," one regional report says.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 11:20

"No One Knows What Will Happen Now": Justice Jackson Warns Against Unbridled Free Speech

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is again warning of a growing threat to the nation. In her lone dissent in Chiles v. Salazar, Jackson observed that “to be completely frank, no one knows what will happen now.” The ominous tone stemmed from the fact that free speech had prevailed over state-imposed orthodoxy in a Colorado case.

Eight justices, including her two liberal colleagues, ruled that Colorado could not prevent licensed counselors from “any practice or treatment” that “attempts or purports to change” a minor’s sexual orientation or gender identity.

The win for free speech was catastrophic for Jackson and many on the left. Allowing counselors to discuss the causes and basis for sexual orientation changes, Jackson maintained, would “open a can of worms.” It would be far better for the majority to simply silence such dissenting voices in the name of science.

The dissent in Chiles is only the latest example of the chilling jurisprudence of Justice Jackson, including a pronounced dismissal of free speech values. Consider the holding of her colleagues that Jackson finds so horrific.

Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote that the First Amendment “reflects … a judgment that every American possesses an inalienable right to think and speak freely, and a faith in the free marketplace of ideas as the best means for discovering truth … any law that suppresses speech based on viewpoint represents an ‘egregious’ assault on both of those commitments.”

What a nightmare.

Instead, Jackson would have declared the ban on anything deemed “conversion therapy” to be “conduct,” not speech.

It is that easy.

You simply impose an orthodoxy and then treat any dissenters as being regulated for their conduct, not their viewpoints.

Justice Elena Kagan could not withhold her frustration with her colleague, noting that “[b]ecause the State has suppressed one side of a debate, while aiding the other, the constitutional issue is straightforward.” She added that Jackson’s view “rests on reimagining—and in that way collapsing—the well-settled distinction between viewpoint-based and other content-based speech restrictions.”

Other countries have embraced Jackson’s permissive approach to speech curtailment.

Recently, Malta failed to convict a man who was facing five months in prison for merely discussing his own abandonment of homosexuality due to a religious conversion.

Of course, we just went through a pandemic when censorship and orthodoxy were dressed up as science.

Leading scientific figures were canceled and harassed. That was the case with Jay Bhattacharya, who co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration and was a vocal critic of COVID-19 policies. Bhattacharya was targeted due to his dissenting views on health policy, including opposing wholesale shutdowns of schools and businesses.

He and other scientists were later vindicated. European allies that did not shut down their schools fared far better than we did, including avoiding a national mental health and learning crisis. We simply never had that debate.

He was recently honored with the prestigious “Intellectual Freedom” award from the American Academy of Sciences and Letters. He is also now the 18th director of the National Institutes of Health.

Yet, years ago, the courts, the media, and politicians joined in treating dissenting views as “conspiracy theories.”

Some argued that the virus’s origin was likely the Chinese research lab in Wuhan. That position was denounced by the Washington Post as a “debunked” coronavirus “conspiracy theory.” The New York Times Science and Health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli called any mention of the lab theory “racist.”

Federal agencies now support the lab theory as the most likely based on the scientific evidence.

Likewise, many questioned the efficacy of those blue surgical masks and supported natural immunity to the virus — the government later recognized both positions.

Others questioned the six-foot rule, which shut down many businesses, as unsupported by science. In congressional testimony, Dr. Anthony Fauci later admitted that the rule “sort of just appeared” and “wasn’t based on data.” Yet not only did it result in heavily enforced rules (and meltdowns) in public areas, but the media further ostracized dissenting critics.

For years, pundits portrayed those who questioned gender reassignment surgeries and treatments as bigots. Now, leading medical associations and European nations have decided that such procedures should not be generally allowed.

All of it was orthodoxy masquerading as science.

Yet, Jackson sees the protection of dissenting scientific and professional views as a “can of worms” that the courts should avoid in favor of state and assocational imposed truths.  She wrote that allowing such opposing views “ultimately risks grave harm to Americans’ health and wellbeing.”

Keep in mind that counselors can still be sued for any harm that they cause due to malpractice or negligence. Indeed, recently in New York, a jury awarded $2 million to Fox Varian, 22, over the double mastectomy performed on her while she was a minor.

State associations can also publish positions on such therapy and seek to convince both professionals and the public on the best practices for children.

None of that was sufficient for Justice Jackson or Colorado. Ironically, Colorado has now succeeded in dramatically strengthening free speech in its repeated failures to curtail it. The Democratic legislators have made the state arguably the most hostile to free speech in the nation.

Colorado’s Supreme Court sought to bar President Donald Trump from the ballot. Notably, while many of us viewed Trump’s views on the 2020 election to be protected speech, Colorado treated it as conduct and advocacy of insurrection.

It was Colorado that sought to force bakers, photographers, and web designers to produce work in favor of same-sex marriages despite their religious objections.  Each effort was supported by the Tenth Circuit and each failed in spectacular fashion before the Supreme Court.

As many of us celebrate this victory for free speech, these advocates are denouncing the ruling in apocalyptic terms.

What is most chilling is that Jackson is now routinely called the model for new nominees, including the push to pack the Supreme Court with an instant liberal majority.

If so, Jackson’s radical views on constitutional interpretation could be replicated on a new packed Court. To paraphrase this decision, “to be completely frank, we know exactly what will happen then.”

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 11:00

WTI Dips After Big Crude Inventory Build, US Production Slows

Oil prices are down overnight but playing headline roulette with every word that comes out of any leaders' (or non-leaders') mouth as ceasefire chatter (now denied) has WTI riding a roller-coaster (but below $100 once again as we write).

“Flows and actions matter more than words,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.

And while inventory data may not be the market-moving event in this new regime, it is useful to see signs of stockpiling or demand.

DOE

• Crude +5.45mm (+10.3mm API, +2mm exp)

• Cushing +520k

• Gasoline -586k

• Distillates -2.11mm

A sizable crude build (the sixth weekly rise in total US crude stocks in a row) was mirrored by the seventh weekly drawdown in gasoline stocks...

Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, also rose for the sixth consecutive week.

A 520,000-barre- build takes inventories at the storage hub to the highest level since July 2024. Stockpiles at Cushing are now firmly above 30 million barrels. 

Stocks for all transport fuels in the US dropped this week with diesel falling 2 million barrels to the lowest level since mid-March.

That fuel, alongside jet, is in the spotlight as the Iran war has had an outsized impact on the price of those fuels compared with gasoline. 

Interestingly, US crude production slipped lower again last week. Refinery crude runs fell for the first time in five weeks. Despite the drop, they remain at a multi-year seasonal high. 

Oil prices dipped after the data...

The surge in market volatility has made intraday trading choppier, with many traders having to curb position sizes.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 10:38

Markets Have Returned To Taking Headlines As Gospel

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

US Treasury yields have been falling for the past two days. On Monday, we saw US rates grind lower after Powell gave a speech at Harvard University where he seemed to hint that hikes were not part of the Fed’s plan for the immediate future, noting that “tariffs have a one-time impact on inflation” and that “there are risks to both sides of the mandate.” In times like these where inflation fears have been the headline, Powell’s refusal to doomspeak on the inflationary impacts of the war and elevated energy prices said enough on its own.

Powell also took time to talk about the continued issue of Fed independence, or lack thereof, highlighting how “there’s broad consensus” that the Fed requires independence on monetary policy. However, as we have noted previously, history suggests otherwise. The Fed was not independent from the Treasury until 1951 when the Treasury-Fed Accord was signed, and the Bank of England wasn’t formally independent until 1997.

But Powell has taken the issue of independence to heart, having announced that if he feels that Fed independence is at stake, and so long as the DoJ investigation continues, he will remain on the Board of Governors even after his term as Fed Chair ends, preventing Trump from appointing a third Governor to the Board this term.

However, the move lower yesterday was sparked after a Wall Street Journal article reported that “President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.” Should this statement hold water, this would bring a whole new meaning to the TACO trade. But, it appears more likely that it doesn’t, especially when this announcement was sprinkled between threats from the Administration to decimate Iranian desalination and energy infrastructure.

Yet, markets have returned to taking headlines as gospel and 2 year yields closed down more than 3bp yesterday. Meanwhile, whereas last Friday the OIS curve indicated investors were positioned for around 6bp worth of hikes from the Fed by 2026 year-end, yesterday they were positioned for 8bp worth of cuts. USD came under pressure due to the broad move in yields as the DXY Index closed down 0.65%, back below the 100-handle for the first time since Friday. USD weakness was especially visible against the euro, with EUR/USD closing the day up 0.80%, back to 1.15. We will also note that yesterday was the end of March and the end of Q1, so some of yesterday’s price action may also be a result of rebalancing flows.

What markets cared significantly less about was a new five point peace plan proposed by China and Pakistan. The plan includes talk of an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is likely to go the same way as Iran’s proposed five point plan and the US’ fifteen point plan—nowhere at all. Markets were rocked, however, after a report circulated that Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that Iran was prepared to end the war if they “receive guarantees.” These guarantees, of course, are the same as the five point plan already proposed, and there was no confirmation that this announcement was a tangible indicator that the war will come to a close anytime soon, as FX and rates markets quickly retraced in response. The S&P 500, however, took that move and ran with it, jumping 1.16% to $6,515, and grinding above that level the rest of the US afternoon.

Trump’s focus, however, has shifted back to Europe. In a Truth Social post, Trump bemoaned Europe’s refusal to get involved, and has especially called out the UK’s Keir Starmer, saying that “all of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you…build up some delayed courage…and just TAKE IT…the USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

Trump’s ire comes as several European countries, including the UK, have pushed back on US demands in the context of the war. This includes France’s refusal to allow American planes headed to Israel to flay over French territory, Italy denying US aircraft access to a base in Sicily, and of course, the UK’s hesitancy and red tape in allowing American access to British military bases.

While markets have focused on the energy crisis in the middle east, another war is fueling its own energy crisis further north. Russia’s Ust-Luga port was damaged after being struck by Ukrainian drones for the fifth time in ten days. According to Bloomberg, “Primorsk and Ust-Luga handled about 45%, or 1.72 million barrels a day, of Russia’ seaborne crude exports,” and the damage has set  Russia’s oil flows to its lowest level in more than a year

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 10:10

"Resilient" US Manufacturing Sector Surges In Face Of War, Prices Paid Up

Amid the fog of war and fading 'hard' data, the final March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printed 52.3 (a small drop from the flash 52.4 print), higher than the 51.8 print for February.

“Faster growth of output in March points to encouraging resilience for US manufacturing in the face of the outbreak of war in the Middle East," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI also rose from 52.4 to 52.7 - the highest since August 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Prices Paid continued to rise dramatically while New Orders and Employment dipped...

Business confidence regarding output in the year ahead has also so far held up well, if one follows the S&P Global report.

"This sustained resilience in part reflects reduced concerns over government policies such as tariffs, but also indicates that producers anticipate only a short-term and modest impact from the war, which is clearly uncertain.

It remains early days in terms of the impact of the conflict, and a sharp rise in prices and delivery delays has cast a cloud over the outlook, threatening to drive inflation higher, dampen demand and throttle supply chains, warns S&P Global's Williamson.

Factory input costs have already jumped higher on the back of surging oil prices and supplier delays have become more widespread than at any time since October 2022, linked to the war exacerbating existing shipping, haulage and port delays.

“Some manufacturers are hence reporting stock building as a precaution against future price rises or supply shortages, and hiring has almost stalled in order to reduce staffing costs, underscoring the growing concern about how the war might cause problems for factories in the coming weeks."

Obviously, if price pressures and supply delays persist, demand, employment and production capabilities will inevitably start to be more seriously affected.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 10:07

Palantir Develops IRS Tool To Flag "Highest Value" Audits, Are Crypto Bros Next?

Crypto bros and those of you with 'creative' accountants, heads up - the IRS is beefing up its ability to flag accounts for audits. Not only is this the first year that major US-based custodial crypto brokers are reporting gross proceeds to the agency, the IRS is getting aggressive elsewhere. Last year they paid Palantir $1.8 million to identify cases for audits, collections, and potential criminal investigations with a high probability of success. The contract was the latest in over $200 million the IRS has paid Palantir since 2014. 

According to documents obtained by WIRED, the new tool - called the Selection and Analytic Platform (SNAP) - is designed to help IRS staff analyze unstructured data from the agency's existing internal databases. The goal is to more efficiently identify "high-value" targets amid the IRS's fragmented legacy systems, which include over 100 business systems and 700 case-selection methods built up over decades.

The pilot is currently focused on areas like Residential Clean Energy Credits, disaster-zone tax relief claims, and gift tax returns. It also helps extract key details from supporting documents, such as contracts, vendors, and related records, to flag potential fraud or underreporting more efficiently. Importantly, SNAP works only with the IRS’s existing internal data - it doesn’t (yet) pull in fresh external feeds like social media or third-party apps.

Those who may get SNAPped up for an audit include;

• People or businesses with big clean energy credit claims (especially if documentation is weak, inflated, or mismatched with other IRS records)
• Individuals who filed disaster relief deductions/credits that appear suspicious
• High-net-worth individuals making large gifts that may trigger gift tax issues

In broader terms, anyone whose filings show high potential recovery value (big underreported income, large credits/deductions, or patterns the IRS flags as risky) could be surfaced faster once SNAP is fully operational. The tool aims to replace inefficient, fragmented manual processes with smarter, data-driven selection.

So why should crypto holders care?

Wired casually mentions that the IRS has experimented in the past with “contracting with companies like Coinbase to analyze information about crypto transactions” as one of several methods to improve audit targeting.

And look at this; they're looking at mining social media posts.

Neuman has studied other methods the IRS has experimented with to improve its case selection process, including contracting with companies like Coinbase to analyze information about crypto transactions, and mining public social media posts for clues that an individual or business may be underreporting their income. 

Meanwhile, Gemini, Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, Robinhood, Crypto.com, PayPal, and Cash App are all reporting 2025 gross proceeds to the IRS starting this year via 1099-DA. 

And while this isn't tied to this Palantir/SNAP project - the broader picture is clear: the IRS is aggressively upgrading its ability to spot underreporting and fraud. Crypto remains a high-priority area for the agency. Between the new 1099-DA reporting forms that Coinbase and other platforms are already sending to the IRS, ongoing blockchain analytics tools, and now a deeper partnership with Palantir’s data-crunching tech, the net is getting tighter and more sophisticated.

Bottom line for crypto users:

• Accurate record-keeping and proper tax reporting have never been more important.
• “It’s on-chain so they’ll never find it” is not a strategy anymore.
• The IRS is investing serious money in tools designed to surface the biggest potential recoveries — and crypto has long been on their radar.

In other words, get your house in order.  If you’ve been sloppy with cost basis, mixing personal and business wallets, or treating crypto like the Wild West, the combination of better data analytics and old-fashioned enforcement could make for a very expensive wake-up call.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 09:25

The Barbell Economy: Why The Middle Is Vanishing

Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times,

There’s a pattern quietly reshaping daily life, work, and society itself. Economists now call it the “barbell economy.” Value, growth, and opportunity concentrate at the two extremes—ultra-cheap utility on one end, premium experience and status on the other—while the broad, reasonable middle thins out. Once you start noticing it, you can’t unsee it. And the data show it isn’t a fleeting trend.

Start with something as ordinary as dinner. Fast-food drive-throughs, delivery apps, and value menus deliver speed and rock-bottom prices with almost no human interaction. At the opposite pole, tasting menus and farm-to-table experiences turn meals into curated stories worth premium prices. The casual sit-down restaurant is struggling or closing—that reliable neighborhood spot that was neither rock-bottom cheap nor luxurious.

The same appears in travel. Airlines sell ultra-low fares for tighter seats but tack on fees for seat selection, bags, and boarding, while business- and first-class cabins keep expanding, with more space, better food, and priority service. Premium-cabin bookings on U.S. domestic flights have grown nearly three times faster than economy seats since 2020. Hotels follow suit: luxury and upper-upscale properties posted stronger revenue growth per available room (RevPAR) in early 2025 than midscale or economy tiers, where occupancy often hovers in the mid-50 percent range and room rates struggle to keep pace with inflation.

Even cars illustrate the point. The average new-vehicle transaction price hit roughly $49,353 in February 2026—up 3.4 percent from the prior year and near all-time highs. For many families, that means heavy debt, stretched budgets, or leaving the new-car market altogether. Some trade down to older or used vehicles; others finance their way into premium models. A reliable new car without major financial strain is becoming rare.

The pattern repeats across many sectors. In education, elite universities grow more expensive and selective, free online resources explode at the low end, and middle-tier institutions face rising costs alongside skepticism about value.

In the workplace, highly skilled, high-pay roles in tech, finance, and specialized fields expand at one pole; gig and service work grow at the other. Stable mid-skill, mid-income jobs have been under pressure for decades. Their share of employment fell from about 59 percent in 1983 to 45 percent by 2012, with high- and low-skill roles filling the gap—a trend that recent analyses tie directly to the barbell shift. Retail mirrors it: ultra-cheap, high-volume platforms on one side, luxury brands on the other, and many traditional mid-tier department stores and general retailers struggling to hold ground. Everywhere, it seems, the middle ground of reliability, reasonable quality, and fair pricing is becoming the hardest place to sustain.

Why the Middle Gets Squeezed

Some of the forces behind include several reinforcing dynamics. Technology drives costs down at the low end—through automation, digitization, and global scale—while amplifying differentiation at the high end, enabling personalized experiences, strong brands, and ecosystems that command premium prices. Globalization intensifies the pressure: mid-tier businesses now compete with both lower-cost producers abroad and globally scaled luxury players, forcing them to slash costs dramatically or move upmarket.

Markets themselves reward extremes. Massive scale wins on price; strong differentiation wins on margins. Being “solid and reliable” without either advantage leaves you exposed. Consumer psychology gravitates toward either “the cheapest thing that works” or “what feels worth it and represents me.” Mid-tier operators also face rising fixed costs—rent, labor, regulation, supply chains—without the efficiencies of giants or the pricing power of luxury brands. The math is getting tighter.

Why the Middle Still Matters

Historically, the middle wasn’t just a pricing tier. It was a stabilizing feature of society. A large middle class with stable work, enough income to build a life, and independence from both the state and the elite acted as an anchor. These people invested in communities, cared about long-term stability, participated in institutions, and generally worked within the system because they had a genuine stake in it.

When the middle thins, shared experiences shrink. Different groups consume, travel, learn, and even perceive reality differently. Social mobility feels less realistic. Trust in institutions erodes as more people feel the system no longer includes or needs them. Ancient to modern political thinkers have warned that societies dominated by extremes tend to be less stable.

What makes the pattern subtle—and hard to reverse—is that almost every individual decision makes sense. Companies cut costs or differentiate to survive. Consumers hunt for deals or splurge on what feels special. Governments open trade for growth. Investors seek returns. But cumulatively, they push supply and demand toward the extremes. It’s a classic case of local optima creating a suboptimal system-level outcome.

The Fork in the Road

If the middle continues to thin, and societies nevertheless wish to re-stabilize it, three broad paths are visible.

• One is passive stability through distribution—ideas such as universal basic income. It could cushion immediate hardship but risks weakening the historical link between contribution, purpose, and livelihood. Also, large-scale central planning has a poor track record of sustaining broad prosperity (e.g., socialism).

• A second path is a controlled middle class, common in centralized systems. People can still live comfortably, but their position depends more heavily on alignment with the state or institutions. This often limits the autonomy that made the traditional middle class a genuine stabilizer. We can see that in China today, under the CCP, where the middle class is not fulfilling its traditional role.

• The third—and most hopeful—path is actively rebuilding a productive middle. This means reindustrialization, stronger domestic supply chains, infrastructure investment, technical education, and new pathways that don’t require elite credentials. The goal is restoring roles in which a broad group of people create real economic value.

Lessons From History—and Today

The old debate of “more free market” versus “more state” often misses how some countries actually succeeded. South Korea in the 1950s was poor and war-torn. Under President Park Chung-hee, the government didn’t simply let markets run free or impose permanent control. It provided guided support—directing credit to key industries, investing heavily in infrastructure and education, and pushing exports—but tied that support to performance. Companies that failed to compete internationally lost backing. As industries matured and became globally competitive, the state gradually stepped back, allowing more market autonomy. Success came from smart sequencing: early coordination to build capacity, followed by increasing competition within a strengthening institutional framework.

We see initiatives of a similar breed today in the United States, where recent policies have aimed to reshore manufacturing, support strategic sectors such as semiconductors and energy, and rebuild domestic capacity.

These efforts represent attempts to reform a system that long optimized purely for efficiency.

Rebuilding—or thoughtfully reshaping—the middle will require understanding the forces at work and making deliberate choices about the kind of society we want the economy to support.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 09:05

Trump To Address Nation With 'Important Update' On Iran War: What Will He Say?

Update (0845ET): Minutes after we prepared this post, President Trump posted on his social media feed that Iran has asked for a ceasefire:

"Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!"

Trump added that he will consider it if the Strait is opened... or else!

"We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!"

Presumably this will be a topic of tonight's address to the nation, but once again it takes two (or three) to TACO and until the Strait is open, all bets are still off.

*  *  *

President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the nation on April 1 to give an update on the military operation in Iran, according to the White House.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a post on X that the president will provide “an important update” about the ongoing war at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

During a White House press conference on March 31, Trump indicated that the U.S. military may conclude its combat operations against Iran within weeks.

“I would say that within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three. We’re hitting them very hard. Last night we knocked out tremendous amounts of missile-making facilities,” he told reporters.

“We’re finishing the job, and I think within, maybe two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer, to do the job. But we want to knock out every single thing they have.”

As The Epoch Times' Aldgra Fredly reports, Trump said while there is a possibility of reaching a deal with Iran to end the military operations for Tehran’s surrender of its nuclear weapons program, the operation could still be ended without any deal.

“If they come to the table, that’ll be good. But it doesn’t matter whether they come or not. We’ve set them back, it’ll take 15 to 20 years for them to rebuild what we’ve done to them,” the president said.

When asked about the impact of the war on gas prices, Trump said, “All I have to do is leave Iran, and we’ll be doing that very soon, and they’ll come tumbling down.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied engaging in direct negotiations with the United States. He told Al Jazeera on March 31, “We do not have any faith that negotiations with the U.S. will yield any results.”

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted since the United States and Israel began military operations against Iran at the end of February. Tehran has retaliated by firing missiles and drones at Israel and U.S. military assets and targets across Gulf nations.

Oil prices have surged in recent weeks, with the U.S. national average retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline exceeding $4 on March 31 for the first time since August 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.

At a Pentagon press briefing on March 31, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the previous 24 hours had marked the lowest number of Iranian missile and attack drone launches since the fighting began.

“The latest intel is clear ... our strikes are damaging the morale of the Iranian military, leading to widespread desertions, key personnel shortages, and causing frustrations amongst senior leaders,” Hegseth said.

Since the start of the military campaign—dubbed Operation Epic Fury—U.S. forces have struck more than 11,000 targets, according to U.S. Central Command.

So what will President Trump say?

With the recent deployment of A-10s and Apaches (consistent with a military option that involves close-air support and/or attacks on Iranian fast boats and water drones) in mind, Larry Johnson lays out three possibilities:

Option 1 — Declare that negotiations with Iran via intermediaries (e.g., Pakistan) are progressing and that they United States is going to cease combat operations against Iran in order to support the negotiations and achieve a peaceful resolution.

Option 2 — Declare that victory has been achieved and that US forces will begin withdrawing from the region, leaving the status of the Strait of Hormuz in limbo.

Option 3 — Announce a massive air and ground operation to secure the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The deployment of the A-10s and the Apaches can only mean one of two things:

1. It is a show of force intended to pressure Iran to return to the negotiating table.

2. The US is going to launch a massive attack against Iranian assets in the Persian Gulf, especially those located in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Since Monday, March 30, 2026, President Donald Trump has made several public comments on the ongoing US-led Operation Epic Fury against Iran, primarily via Truth Social posts, interviews (including with the New York Post), and remarks to reporters. His statements emphasize US military successes, threats of further escalation if demands are unmet, criticism of allies, and a potential near-term wind-down of direct US involvement.

On Monday, Trump described Iran as effectively “decimated” or “obliterated,” with its air force, navy, and many ships sunk or destroyed. He portrayed the campaign as highly successful and “way ahead of schedule” in prior context, but continued highlighting strikes on “long-sought-after targets.” He shared video footage on Truth Social of a massive explosion and secondary blasts in Isfahan (linked to strikes on uranium-related or military sites), without additional caption in one instance.

Trump also posted that the US was in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime” to end operations. He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not “immediately ‘Open for Business’” and a deal is not reached shortly, the US would “completely obliterate” Iran’s electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly desalination plants. He framed this as concluding the US “lovely ‘stay’ in Iran.” In follow-up comments, he suggested the US could respond to Iranian actions “twenty times harder” with “Death, Fire, and Fury.”

Overall, Trump’s messaging since March 30 combines triumphalism about US achievements, escalatory warnings tied to the Strait of Hormuz and energy targets, frustration with allies, and signals of de-escalation with a short timeline for reduced US involvement. These comments have influenced market reactions (e.g., oil prices and equities) and drawn responses from Iranian officials and international observers.

Trump’s remarks since Monday have boosted the confidence of the folks on Wall Street and contributed to a significant surge in the stock market, with the Dow up 1,125 points. The price for BRENT oil dropped from 118 to 103 during Tuesday trading. This means the financial folks believe the war is going to end.

I think Trump is counting on Iran offering up some concessions in the face of the US buildup of additional air combat assets.

Netanyahu reportedly just said Iran no longer poses threat to Israel’s existence… A dramatic pivot if true.

However, over the last few hours, Israel and the US carried out a large wave of attacks across Iran.

They struck targets across several parts of Tehran, as well as in the cities of Karaj, Shahriar, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Abadeh, Isfahan, and Bandar Abbas. Iran will retaliate in force to these latest attacks.

In short, I believe Donald Trump will announce a major offensive to try to force Iran to release its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz… I believe that offensive will fail and that the war will escalate unless the US and Israel agree to two critical Iranian demands: the end of all sanctions and the removal of US military bases from the Persian Gulf arab countries.

Russia and China are two wild cards that could change the trajectory of the current war. If they engage and apply pressure on the diplomatic front — including ironclad security guarantees to Iran — Donald Trump may take the exit ramp.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 08:46

US Retail Sales Jumped Most In 8 Months In February

Bank of America's omniscient analysts forecast a very strong month for Retail Sales in February data (released today)...

The actual print was +0.6% MoM (better than the 0.5% consensus, but less than BofA's forecast) comes after a revised higher 0.1% MoM decline in January (and December's nothingburger)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest MoM rise since June 2025, and sales rose 3.7% YoY...

Core Retail Sales (Ex Autos) rose 0.5% MoM (much better than expected) and Ex Autos and Gas also rose more than expected (+0.4% MoM).

Food and Beverage spending fell while Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers saw the biggest jump...

Most importantly, the 'Control Group' which plugs into the GDP calculation rose 0.5% MoM (also considerably better than expected).

Interestingly, 'real' retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) have rebounded from a negative print in December...

Of course, this data was before the war started and before gas prices really exploded (but then again April's tax refunds may offset some of the pain).

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 08:41

Futures, Bonds Surge On Optimism War May End, Oil Tumbles Below $100

Futures and bonds jump and oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, as the de-escalation/technical/macro led relief rally continues on hopes of the Middle East conflict reaching an end soon  after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks, and indicated that it was possible that Iran could still reach a deal with the US during that timeframe. Trump has a national address tonight at 9pm ET to discuss Iran, but the content is unclear, with the market is expressing the view that this will be details on a wind-down rather than an escalation. As of 8:15am ET, S&P Futures were 0.7% higher,  after the cash index posted a near 3% advance on Tuesday, the best end to a quarter since September 2008. Nasdaq futures jumped 1.1% with all Mag 7 names higher premarket. European stocks jumped 2.6%, alongside a 4.9% surge in Asian shares. Final Mfg PMIs from the Europe were mixed (EU, Germany, Italy small beats/UK, France small missed) while Japan/Korea Manf PMIs were slightly better. Trump is set to address the nation tonight at 9pm EST and said he expects the war to end in two to three weeks/US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons. Otherwise, the US is sending a third aircraft carrier to the region, Iran said the US “isn’t serious about diplomacy”, the WSJ reported that the UAE wants to force the Strait of Hormuz open and is willing to join the fight, and attacks continued on both sides with Qatar saying Iran struck an oil tanker.  Brent fell 5.4% before paring the move as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed and attacks continued across the Gulf. Traders trimmed bets on tighter monetary policy, sending two-year Treasury yields three basis points lower to 3.76%. Comparable UK gilt yields dropped 10 basis points to 4.30%. Looking at today's US economic calendar, we get March ADP employment change (8:15am), February retail sales (8:30am), March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), March ISM manufacturing and January business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:05am) and Barr (9:10am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +2.1%, Microsoft +1.5%, Amazon +0.9%, Nvidia +1.4%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.9%, Apple +0.5%) 

• Li Auto ADRs (LI) rise 4% after the Chinese EV firm reported March vehicle deliveries that surpassed its own guidance and analyst estimates.
• MSC Industrial (MSM) falls 6% after the distributor of metalworking products reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• NCino (NCNO) jumps 24% after the cloud-banking software company’s subscription revenue forecast for 2027 beat the average analyst estimate.
• Nike (NKE) falls 10% after the retailer gave a surprisingly gloomy outlook for the year ahead, complicating Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill’s efforts to turn around the business.
• RH (RH) plunges 17% after the home furnishing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Oric Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) slides 21% after the clinical-stage oncology company gave safety and efficacy data from an early-stage trial of its drug-candidate for prostate cancer that underwhelmed Wall Street.
• Target Hospitality (TH) rises 24% after the provider of modular housing announced secured a multi-year contract worth more than $550 million. The company will construct and provide hospitality services for a hyperscaler’s data center development in North Texas.

In other corporate news, Microsoft is in exclusive talks with Chevron and investment fund Engine No. 1 over a long-term deal for a giant energy complex in West Texas to power a large data center campus. A number of Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxis suddenly stopped on the streets of China’s Wuhan city,  leaving passengers stranded and raising concerns about the safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology.

In AI, Anthropic inadvertently released source code for its popular Claude AI agent, OpenAI completed a deal to raise $122 billion from investors at an $852 billion valuation, marking the company’s largest funding round to date. Perplexity AI was accused of sharing the personal information of its users with Meta and Google. 

A wave of global equity optimism fueled by his comments suggesting the war could end soon is not getting the “all clear” that might have been expected after such a brisk rally. Gains are likely to be tempered by a persistent energy geopolitical risk premium, supply chain disruption and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Taders said it would take time for oil flows to return to normal even if the war ends within Trump’s timeframe, especially given the damage to some energy facilities. Trump’s team has also suggested that reopening the Hormuz strait, which carries 20% of global crude, may not be necessary to end the hostilities.

“The correlation between Brent oil prices and global equity markets has been exceptionally strong since the conflict started,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “This goes to show that a return to previous equity market highs would need the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and oil prices to drop significantly. It is probably too early for an all-clear yet.”

Trump, who will give an address at 9 p.m. Eastern Time to provide an “important update” on Iran, said the Islamic Republic could still reach a deal with the US. He added, however, that an agreement with Tehran isn’t a prerequisite to conclude the war. 

“We are seeing a relief rally, and with more information we may see a reversal, so we just need to be careful here,” Remi Olu-Pitan, multi-asset growth and income head at Schroders, told Bloomberg TV. “There’s still a lot of volatility, the market is still fragile.”

Pension fund rebalancing at the end of the quarter, short squeeze risk, de-escalation bets and hedge fund equity disposals could all play their part in the moves. Option positioning suggested a sudden conflict resolution could trigger an unwinding, and accelerate a collapse in implied volatility.  “It’s not over till it’s over,” cautions ING’s Vincent Juvyns, who views it premature to dive back in to the market with the impacts of the conflict taking months to clear. 

In politics, Wall Street’s biggest private credit houses — including Blackstone and Ares  — are facing pointed questions from Congress. Malta, known as ‘blockchain island,’ is opposing EU plans to centralize crypto supervision under the ESMA.

European stocks are rallying, with the Stoxx 600 up 2% as markets look toward a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. Banks as well as travel and leisure shares are leading gains, while the energy sector is the biggest laggard.  Stoxx 600 rises 2.2% to 595.73 with 65 members down, 532 up, and 3 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Athens Stock Exchange Index rises as much as 4.3% at Wednesday open, following index provider MSCI’s decision to upgrade the Greek market to developed status
• Thule rises as much as 5.7% after SEB Equities upgrades to hold, removing the only sell rating on the maker of roof and bike racks, to reflect “more reasonable expectations” now baked into the stock
• Sandoz shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in five weeks, after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation
• Inficon gains as much as 8.1%, the most since Jan. 15, as JPMorgan starts coverage at overweight, saying the vacuum instrument maker should be a beneficiary of the multiyear upcycle in wafer fabrication equipment
• Arcadis shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most in six months, after Bank Degroof Petercam upgraded the engineering services firm on expectation that the new management team will be able to drive a recovery
• Jungheinrich shares rise as much as 9.8%, their steepest ascent in around a year, as Bernstein boosts its price target on the German machinery company, citing enticing long-term prospects
• Nordex falls as much as 3.8% after Bank of America downgraded the German wind turbine manufacturer to neutral from buy following a 56% year-to-date rally that the bank says has priced in most of the bull case
• Berkeley Group shares plunge as much as 19% to hit a nine-year low, after the housebuilder’s profit goal for the FY27 to FY30 period significantly undershot expectations
• SoftwareONE shares drop as much as 8.9%, hitting a seven-month low, after an investor offloaded shares at a discount to yesterday’s closing price. Shares have fallen below the offer price this morning
• Cirsa Enterprises drops as much as 5% after one of its investors offloaded shares at a discount to Tuesday’s closing price. The stock is holding above the offer price on Wednesday

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his government will coordinate a diplomatic push for the strait’s reopening, affirming Britain’s desire not to be dragged into the military conflict. “I would expect further volatility in the days to come and the market to oscillate between losses and gains for a few more sessions until we get clarity on how the crisis unfolds,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG Markets. “This is likely more a temporary respite than a final game changer.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks jumped the most in nearly a year, tracking Wall Street’s rally on optimism that the war in Iran may end in the near future.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 5.2%, the most since April 10, with shares in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan leading the gains. Technology giants Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. provided the biggest boost to the gauge’s advance. Asian markets would stand to gain more than others if the US manages to defuse the war with Iran, as investors unwind an energy‑driven risk premium that has hit the region harder than most. The conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher, driving equity sell‑offs and currency volatility across Asia’s oil‑importing economies. Still, the regional gauge remains  down about 9% from a peak in February, with investors questioning how quickly oil can fall and how credible Trump’s assurances are. Market focus will now shift to an “important update” on Iran that Trump is scheduled to deliver at 9 p.m. Washington time. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4%, while Treasury yields dropped four basis across the curve. Swaps imply 11 basis points of Federal Reserve rate reductions by year-end, compared to 5bps on Tuesday. EUR/USD up as much as 0.5% to 1.1611, while GBP/USD up as much as 0.6% to 1.3301. USD/CHF drops 0.8% to 0.7928, EUR/CHF down 0.5% to 0.9190; leveraged desks seen unwinding franc shorts, a Europe-based trader says

In rates, fixed income markets have rallied but lost a bit of steam in recent trade. US yields are around 3bps lower across the curve as markets assign a 40% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end versus a 64% chance of a hike last week. Treasury futures are off session highs in early US session, although yields remain 2bp-4bp lower across a steeper curve. US 10-year is about 3bp richer on the day near 4.29%, while 5s30s spread is steeper by ~1bp. Gilts outperform, with UK front-end yields richer by 8bp as oil broadly holds losses. Investors face the prospect that US President Trump, slated to speak at 9 p.m. in Washington, will soon declare an end to the war in Iran.

In commodities, despite the optimism in stocks, crude prices have faded declines in the European session. Brent is now back above $100 per barrel having earlier dropped below the key level. WTI crude oil contract has pared a 4.8% slump to about 2.5%, and was last trading just around $99. Precious metals are diverging, with spot gold up 1.4% and silver down 0.5%. Bitcoin has added 0.5%. 

Looking at today's US economic calendar, we get March ADP employment change (8:15am), February retail sales (8:30am), March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), March ISM manufacturing and January business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:05am) and Barr (9:10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.9%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
• DAX +0.7%
• CAC 40 +0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.32%
• VIX -1.7 points at 28.87
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.56
• euro little changed at $1.147
• WTI crude -0.9% at $101.92/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump will deliver a speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m. Washington time to give an update about the war in Iran: BBG
• Oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks. The US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons, he said. Attacks continued across the Middle East. Qatar said a cruise missile from Iran struck an oil tanker. BBG 
• The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks. WSJ 
• Trump said he’s strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it didn’t join the war on Iran. He told the Telegraph that leaving the block was now “beyond reconsideration.” BBG 
• California is confronting sky-high petrol prices and the threat of jet fuel shortages because of disruption caused by the Iran war, exposing US energy insecurity as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The most populous US state is vulnerable to the turmoil in world energy markets because it relies on imports of refined products such as petrol and jet fuel from Asia after introducing ambitious plans to phase out fossil fuels and significantly reduce refining capacity in favor of renewables. Californians pay the most for petrol in the country, with a gallon averaging $5.88 — the highest level since the pandemic — compared to $4.01 in the rest of the US, according to the American Automobile Association. FT 
• Russia exported more liquefied natural gas in the first quarter of 2026 than it did a year earlier, with shipments to Europe increasing despite Moscow's push to redirect supply away from the region. RTRS 
• China’s factory activity slowed in March for export-oriented firms as their costs surged, according to RatingDog’s PMI. That contrasts with an official gauge that showed manufacturing improving despite the Iran war. BBG 
• Chinese government bonds have sidestepped a global debt sell-off since the start of the Iran war, as the world’s second-biggest economy emerges as a haven from soaring energy prices and rising global inflation. Investors are betting that whereas major central banks in the US and Europe will be forced to keep interest rates at higher levels than previously expected to counter inflation triggered by rising oil and gas prices, China will be relatively insulated thanks to its energy mix and very low inflation before the conflict. FT 
• Japan may face stagflation risks from the Iran war that would be challenging to deal with using monetary policy, new Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada said on Wednesday. RTRS 
• Trump signs executive order related to mail-in voting, said working on proof of citizenship and that voter ID and citizenship proof are subjects for another time.
• OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation in its largest funding round yet. BBG 
• Since the start of the Iran war, market pricing for the fed funds rate has swung sharply, and it now implies a roughly 45% chance that the FOMC will hike in 2026. While some of this reflects changing demand for insurance against the tail risk of more hikes, the market-implied probability that the FOMC delivers 1-2 cuts—the modal case before the war—has declined from 35-40% to about 18%. Expectations for other central banks have moved even more, and market pricing now implies about 70bp of hikes from the ECB in 2026, compared to 8bp of cuts before the war
• Trump asks CPA for lists of insurers who were good to clients, and list who were bad in response to California fires.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly rallied with global risk sentiment buoyed by hopes for an end to the Iran conflict following encouraging comments from the US and Iran, while President Trump also suggested that the war could end in 2 or 3 weeks, and he will deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday evening to give an important update regarding Iran. ASX 200 gained at the open and was led by outperformance in mining, materials, resources and tech, with nearly all sectors in the green aside from some defensives, while the index also shrugged off weak PMIs. Nikkei 225 surged back above the 53,000 level amid hopes of a nearing end to the conflict and after the latest BoJ Tankan survey mostly topped forecasts, with the headline large manufacturing index at its highest in more than five years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad upbeat mood across the region with notable strength seen in mining, tech and biopharmaceuticals, while a miss on Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and the smallest PBoC injection in more than a decade failed to derail the momentum.

Top Asian News

• Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.8 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1, Low. 50.5, High. 53).
• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) 17 vs. Exp. 16 (Prev. 15, Low. 8, High. 18).
• Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1) 36 vs. Exp. 33 (Prev. 34, Low. 28, High. 36)
• Japanese Tankan Small Manufacturers Index (Q1) 7 vs. Exp. 7 (Prev. 6, Low. -1, High. 9)
• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 14 vs. Exp. 13 (Prev. 15, Low. 5, High. 15)
• Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 29 vs. Exp. 28 (Prev. 28, Low. 24, High. 34)
• Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q1) 3.3% vs. Exp. 13% (Prev. 12.6%)

European bourses (STOXX 600 +2.1%) continue to rebound, printing a third straight day of gains thus far. The positive was helped following reports that Iranian officials are leaning towards dialogue, while President Trump said that the war is coming to an end. European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy. Banks and Travel and Leisure top the sector pile. Oil prices have been the main driver for airlines, with the drop in energy prices making jet fuel cheaper. Banks have been hit throughout the Iran war, so the prospects of it coming to an end have boosted the sector. To add, HSBC was added to Goldman Sachs' European conviction list.

Top European News

• Germany's VDMA said German Engineering Orders -8% in Dec-Feb Y/Y (Domestic Orders -6%, Foreign Orders -8%).
• German Economic Institutes confirm cutting 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts.
• UK government said new measures to ease cost of living pressure to come into force on April 1st. Increasing national living wage to £12.71. Energy bills are to be cut by average £117 a year for millions across the UK and locked in until end of June.

FX

• DXY is on the backfoot this morning with markets pricing in a “de-escalation” trade, after US President Trump said to NBC News regarding the Iran war that "it is coming to an end", with a White House official suggesting Trump is confident an agreement will be reached soon. Interestingly, from the Iranian side, President Pezeshkian noted that Iran seeks to end the war with guarantees against further attacks. DXY currently holds at the lower end of a 99.41-99.88 range. It is worth highlighting that the index saw some strength after the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said that the "Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”.
• G10s are entirely stronger against the USD, albeit to varying degrees. The CHF outperforms, benefiting from lower energy prices – the likes of GBP and EUR also benefit. For the GBP specifically, the UK government confirmed new measures to ease the cost of living pressure are to come into force today, including an increase in the national living wage to GBP 12.71 and with energy bills to be cut by an average GBP 117 a year for millions across the UK, which will be locked in until end of June.
• JPY also gains vs USD, albeit to a lesser degree vs peers. The seemingly easing Iran tensions has benefited the JPY, which builds on the strength seen in recent sessions, facilitated by jawboning and a hawkish-leaning BoJ SOO earlier this week. As for today, Japan’s Tankan survey was mostly stronger-than-expected, which supports the case for an April BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY currently trades within a narrow 158.27-159.01 range.

Central Banks

• BoJ new Board Member Asada does not comment on any specific stance. Rising oil prices put upward pressure on inflation while weighing on growth, creating a stagflationary trend.
• ECB's Stournaras said if oil prices rise over USD 150/bbl Europe could face a recession.
• ECB's Dolenc said ECB's adverse scenario is more likely to be the next baseline and current baseline is more like the best-case scenario.

Fixed Income

• An overall positive start in the fixed income benchmarks, with energy prices falling and higher hopes of a potential end to the Iran conflict. President Trump stated that the war is coming to an end, while a White House official said that the President is confident that an agreement will be reached soon.
• USTs are trading at the upper end of a 111-10 to 111-14+ range, albeit off best levels, as energy prices rebound slightly. Price action is set to remain rangebound ahead of a flurry of data and Fed speak, while Trump is set to speak at 21:00EDT/02:00BST.
• Bunds, in tandem with its peers, are gaining and currently holding above the 126 handle. The 10yr yield extends further below 3.0%, printing a trough at 2.933% before bouncing slightly. EZ final manufacturing PMI ticked slightly higher above the prelim. Figure but failed to drive any move in EGBs. In addition, ECB speakers reiterated the impact higher energy prices have on the European economy.
• Gilts outperform, continuing to be the beneficiary of lower energy prices, as BoE pricing remains sensitive to oil prices. Pricing for rate hikes have pulled back, now price in 44bps of hikes in 2026.
• Germany sells EUR 3.025bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.11x (prev. 1.51x), average yield 2.78% (prev. 2.60%), retention 24.3% (prev. 20.1%).

Commodities

• In geopolitics, optimism was seen on Tuesday over a potential end to the war, particularly following Trump’s overnight comments that the US could leave Iran in two to three weeks. This follows reports that the US could exit Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump calling on users of the strait to secure it themselves. Trump is due to make an announcement tonight at 21:00 EDT/02:00 BST. Some of yesterday’s optimism waned after commentary from the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament, who said: “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation, and there will be no negotiation.”
• WTI and Brent initially dipped to lows of USD 96.50/bbl and USD 98.35/bbl respectively as markets initially continued the move from yesterday, although a floor was later found on the Iranian deputy speaker comments, with Brent back above USD 100/bbl and WTI near USD 99/bbl at the time of writing, both still lower intraday by over USD 2/bbl apiece. Dutch TTF prices are softer once again after slipping over 7% in the prior session, with desks citing favourable weather alongside hopes of an Iranian war de-escalation.
• Spot gold is slightly firmer amid the softer USD and lower oil prices, with the yellow metal back above its 100 DMA (4,642.48/oz) in a current USD 4,661.61-4,747.77/oz parameter. Conversely, spot silver is softer on the day following yesterday’s +7% gains, with the metal today finding resistance near its 100 DMA (USD 75.22/oz).
• Base metals mostly eke out mild gains in what is seemingly a function of the USD alongside recent positive sentiment amid hopes of a de-escalation of the Iranian situation. 3M LME copper resides in a current USD 12,380.00- 12,499.75/t range after finding resistance around USD 12,500/t.
• IEA Chief Birol says more than 12mln BPD of oil supply has been lost so far due to the Middle East crisis; the current crisis is worse than the 1970s oil shocks and the loss of Russian gas in 2022 combined. Oil supply losses in April are expected to be twice as high as in March. Biggest problem is a lack of jet fuel and diesel, already affecting Asia and coming to Europe in April–May.
• UK PM Starmer said the fuel duty will remain where it is until September.
• South Korea has raised its energy disruption alert to the second-highest level due to the possible crude oil supply crisis, via Yonhap.
• US extended a Russian oil transit license via Kazakhstan to China until March 2027, according to IFX cites Kazakh Energy Ministry.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +10.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -10.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing +0.8mln.

Trade/Tariffs

• India grants one-time customs duty relief for goods made in special economic zone and sold into domestic market.
• US is rushing to put in place a system to pay back USD 166bln it collected now after Trump tariffs were ruled to be unconstitutional, according to Nikkei.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said he is strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it failed to join his war on Iran, The Telegraph reported.
• US President Trump tells NBC News on Iran war "it is coming to an end".
• US advisers who speak regularly with the US President are reportedly uncertain about the mixed signals from Trump, according to Axios. "Some Trump aides and allies say he's mostly improvising rather than following any clear plan". "Aides have been convinced at various points that Trump was leaning toward a major escalation, and at others that he was eager for a swift resolution. "Nobody knows in the end what he's really thinking," a senior adviser said.".
• US Secretary of State Rubio said have largely destroyed Iran's air force and can see the finish line with Iran objectives, adds end to Iran war is not today, not tomorrow but it is coming. said:. There’s nothing any country is doing to help Iran that is in any way impeding our mission. There is potential for a direct meeting with Iran at some point. US is to re-examine NATO ties post-Iran war.
• Iranian Foreign Minister, when asked about the status of negotiations with the US, said "No decision has been made yet. We have many considerations. Our conditions for ending the war are very clear. We do not accept the ceasefire; We seek a complete end".
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi reiterates Strait of Hormuz is closed to countries at war with Iran and said the US President must change his approach, also noted that a guarantee from 1-2 countries or from the UN Security Council is not enough. Iran has no plans for negotiations with the US. We are ready for any ground threat and are ready for at least six months of war.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has zero trust in the US and dismisses the effectiveness of any potential ground operation targeting Iran.
• Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said "Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation", Fars reported.
• Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
• Yemeni Houthi spokesperson claims a joint attack with Hezbollah against Israel, said the escalations will only drive Yemen "to further escalation in the coming period until the aggression stops and the blockade is lifted".
• Daily Mail columnist Andrew Neil posted "I am told by White House sources that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island".
• Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
• Iranian drone reportedly strikes US Victoria base in Baghdad, according to Fars news agency.
• Israeli military identified launch of missile from Yemen towards Israel.
• US and Israel attacked weather facilities of Bushehr again, via ISNA.
• Reports of a drone attack on an oil field in the "Chamanke" region, located in the north of Dohuk province in Iraqi Kurdistan; attack caused a fire in this oil field. The field is managed by an American company, Fars News reported.
• Reports of explosions in Saudi Arabia; reporting in proximity to Saudi announcing the interception of two drones in the last few hours.
• Qatari Defence said a cruise missile struck an oil tanker chartered for QatarEnergy in the economic waters, Al Arabiya reported.
• United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
• Powerful explosion rocks American base in Erbil, according to Press TV.
• Iran's Mobarakeh steel plant hit in US-Israel strike and Khuzestan steel plant also targeted, Mehr News reported.
• UK PM Starmer reaffirmed that the war in the Middle East is not our war and will not be dragged into the conflict. Exploring every diplomatic avenue to reopen Hormuz.
• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin told TASS that talks on Ukraine are on pause.

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: United States Jan FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 9:45 am: United States Mar MNI Chicago PMI, est. 55, prior 57.7
• 10:00 am: United States Mar Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 87.9, prior 91.2
• 10:00 am: United States Feb JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6890k, prior 6946k
• 12:00 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks at Eco Mobility Project
• 1:10 pm: United States Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
• 3:00 pm: United States Fed’s Barr Discusses Stablecoin Regulation
• 5:10 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Small Business

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

What had been a torrid month of March for markets ended on a positive note yesterday, as the S&P 500 (+2.91%) posted its best day since last May as comments by US and Iranian officials drove hopes that an end to the Iran war could be coming closer into view. The increased optimism boosted a variety of asset classes including credit (-18bps for US HY spreads) and gold (+3.48%). Oil markets themselves saw more modest relief given still very uncertain prospects for the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude falling -3.18% yesterday but trading +1.36% higher at $105.21/bbl this morning. Meanwhile, US officials have joined in suggesting that the US may look for an offramp before long, with Secretary of State Rubio saying last night that the US “can see the finish line” on Iran objectives. And the White House posted last night that Trump will address the nation at 9pm EST today “to provide an important update on Iran”. S&P 500 futures (+0.20%) have solidified yesterday’s gains, while those on the Europe’s STOXX 50 (+1.80%) are catching up to yesterday’s US rally, having risen by a more modest +0.50% yesterday.

The biggest trigger for yesterday’s rally came shortly after the European close as Iran’s state news agency reported Iranian President Pezeshkian saying that Iran is willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression”. While it wasn’t clear if these comments represented a material change in Iran’s position – indeed, in large part they reiterated demands floated by Tehran last week – they helped drive an extension of the rally that emerged amid signals that the US may be looking for offramps out of the war.

The latest US comments then saw Trump say last night that he foresees ending the war “within two weeks, maybe three” and that while a deal with Iran was possible, such an agreement was not necessary for the US to end the conflict. Trump also suggested that “we’re not going to have anything to do with” what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to a cacophony of signals that the US did not see reopening Hormuz as necessary to end the war. These ranged from the WSJ report we mentioned yesterday morning to Trump’s post earlier yesterday that countries who are reliant on energy from the Gulf should “go to the Strait and just TAKE IT” as well as his comments to the New York Post that the waterway would open “automatically” after the US leaves.

Oil prices moved lower following the Pezeshkian comments but are a little higher again this morning. WTI crude in particular saw modest moves in aggregate, down -1.46% yesterday to $101.38/bbl, after almost reaching $107/bbl in Asia trading yesterday, but edging back up to $103.19/bbl this morning as Trump’s comments overnight left plenty of uncertainty over Hormuz, especially if there isn’t a negotiated settlement. When it comes to talks, Iran’s Foreign Minister told Aljazeera yesterday that while there has been an exchange of messages with the US, these were not “negotiations”.

By contrast, US equities delivered a stunning rebound as the S&P 500 rose by +2.91%, its best day since May 12 last year, the day that US and China agreed to defuse their post-Liberation Day tariff escalation. The NASDAQ (+3.83%) and the Mag-7 (+4.48%) outperformed as tech stocks led the gains, while the S&P 500 airlines sector rebounded by +5.77%. The rally was also a broad one, with 421 advancers in the S&P 500, the most year-to-date, while the VIX index (-5.36pts to 25.25) saw its biggest daily decline since last April.

The positive mood has fed into Asian hours overnight, with key Asia indices also rebounding strongly. The KOSPI (+7.73%) is leading the way, also boosted by strong export data, while the Nikkei is up +4.58%. The Hang Seng (+1.97%), CSI (+1.43%), Shanghai Composite (+1.36%) and the S&P/ASX 200 +1.90% are also visibly higher.

The risk-on mood has also been visible across other asset classes, with US HY credit spreads tightening by -18bps yesterday, also their best day since last May’s US-China trade truce. Elsewhere, gold rose +3.48% to $4,668/oz in its best day since early February, while the dollar index fell -0.55% and is another -0.17% overnight.

In the rates space, Treasuries extended Monday’s rally, with the 2yr yield down -3.4bps to 3.80% and the 10yr down -3.1bps to 4.32%. 10yr yields are another -2.7bps lower overnight, which leaves them almost 20bps down from their 4.48% intra-day peak on Friday. Meanwhile, this morning in Asia, 10yr JGBs are -2.8bps lower at 2.32%.

European bonds also rallied yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds down -3.0bps to 3.00%, while OATs (-4.5bps) and BTPs (-7.6bps) outperformed amid the risk on moves. The bond rally was also aided by the March euro area HICP print which saw both headline (+2.5% yoy) core inflation (+2.3%) come in a tenth below consensus. Gilts were a relative underperformer, with 10yr yields down a modest -1.7bps as the final Q4 GDP release saw 2025 real GDP growth revised up from +1.3% to +1.4%.

Yesterday’s cross-asset rally came at the end of what has been a pretty torrid month and quarter for markets, as you can see in our regular performance review that Henry will be publishing shortly. Clearly the Iran conflict dominated the agenda, with Q1 seeing the biggest quarterly rise in Brent crude oil since Q3 1990 when the Gulf War began. It also triggered a major cross-asset selloff, and March saw Europe’s STOXX 50 post its biggest monthly decline since the first Covid lockdowns in March 2020, whilst 10yr Treasury yields had their biggest monthly jump since December 2024. So nearly all the major assets struggled, and there were plenty of other stories to look out for too. In fact, the software component of the S&P 500 saw its biggest quarterly decline since the height of the GFC in 2008, whilst March saw gold's biggest monthly decline since 2008 as well. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.

Recapping yesterday’s other news, we saw mixed data out of the US. On the positive side, the Conference Board consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in in March to 91.8 (versus 91.0 previous, 87.9 expected). So US consumer sentiment is proving relatively resilient in the face of the Iran shock, even if the expectations series did deteriorate from 72.6 to 70.9 (vs. 68.4 expected). However, the February JOLTS employment survey was on the softer side, with job openings largely in line with expectations but the quits rate edging down from 2.0% to 1.9% and layoffs rising to a 4-month high of 1,721k (vs 1,668k expected).

Turning to the data out of Asia this morning, in China the RatingDog manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 in March, down from 52.1 in February and below the expected 51.6. Rising oil prices contributed to increased cost pressures, dragging from the strong momentum in February. Meanwhile in Japan, the BoJ’s Tankan survey improved for a fourth consecutive quarter, with sentiment among large manufacturers rising to +17 from +16 in December. Companies are also signaling a larger-than-expected increase in capital expenditure though they are more cautious about the future.

Finally, turning to the day ahead, the final manufacturing PMIs for March will be the highlight on the data side. In the US, we’ll also have the latest weekly ADP employment figures and the February retail sales data. Among central banks, the Fed’s Musalem and Barr and ECB’s Cipollone are due to speak.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 08:30

Political Polarization Particularly Strong In The US

The share of people who consider themselves on the far left or far right of the political spectrum is particularly high in the United States, according to a survey by Statista Consumer Insights.

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiat details below, among U.S. respondents surveyed between January and December 2025, 12 percent placed themselves on the far left (0 on a 10-point scale) and 20 percent on the far right (10 out of 10).

You will find more infographics at Statista

By comparison, only 7 percent of Germans place themselves at either extreme of the scale.

Identifying as centrist is also more common in Germany, with 24 percent doing so compared with 17 percent in the United States.

In France, centrism is less prevalent, with just 12 percent identifying as such, while 10 percent place themselves on the far left and a notable 19 percent on the far right.

It is also worth noting that 25 percent of surveyed French adults preferred not to answer, compared with 14 to 18 percent in the other countries studied.

While similar shares of French and U.S. respondents identify with the left and right overall, positions at the far ends of the spectrum are slightly more pronounced in the United States.

Attitudes in the United Kingdom broadly mirror those in Germany, though with a more pronounced shift toward the far-right end of the spectrum.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 05:45

'A National Calamity': 1 In 8 UK Children Reported As Disabled By Parents

Authored by Mary Gilleece via dailysceptic.org,

The recent news that one in eight children are now reported by their parents as being disabled ought to prompt an immediate national inquiry into what on earth is causing a large proportion of the population to sicken.

That millions of children and young people are stricken with disabilities ought to be front page news every day until it is sorted out.

The Telegraph reports:

About 12% of children – or around 1.7 million youngsters – are now living with a long-term illness, disability or impairment, according to fresh figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).

This has almost doubled since 2015, when roughly 7% of parents said their child had a disability, according to the department’s closely-watched Family Resources Survey (FRS).

It also comes amid a sharp increase in young people being diagnosed with behavioural issues as well as autism and ADHD.

Almost two-thirds of children with a disability had a “social” or “behavioural” impairment – by far the most common issue cited by parents, the FRS found.

The figures involved ought to terrify everyone for they reveal a population that is riven with ill-health and impairment. If accurate, a National Commission into ‘Physical Deterioration’ similar to the one conducted by Fitzroy in 1904 to find out what was causing the ill-health of young people is needed immediately. With such staggering levels of illness, there is no hope at all that our country will ever return to growth. The Telegraph continues:

The number of children with behavioural disorders who are eligible for disability living allowance (DLA) has almost quadrupled to 276,000 since before the pandemic. This total includes 10,000 children under five and 14 children who are less than a year old.

Roughly 16.7 million people – representing a quarter of Britons – now live with a disability. More women than men claim they have an impairment, though disability is more prevalent among boys than girls.

Scottish people are also more likely to say they are disabled than people living in England or Wales.

The figures show roughly 700,000 of children considered disabled are under 10. More people under 20 are also now in this category than Britons aged over 80.

I am appalled that no-one in politics is calling for an immediate inquiry into these dreadful illnesses destroying the health and chances of so many children. Sure Alan Milburn has been asked to look at the benefits system, but who is investigating the children themselves to find out why they are all so poorly?

The Fitzroy Report was commissioned after the Boer War when it had become apparent that large percentages of recruits were rejected from the Army physical reasons. The report sought:

(1) To furnish the Government and the Nation at large with periodical data for an accurate comparative estimate of the health and physique of the people;

(2) to indicate generally the causes of such physical deterioration as does exist in certain classes;

and (3) to point out the means by which it can be most effectually diminished.

It was thorough in its analysis and took a broad approach to finding out why children were failing to thrive. The commissioners examined such things as “cellar-based and back-to-back housing”, “the employment of mothers too soon after childbirth”, “white bread”, “abuse of tea”, “the desire for pleasure”, “hereditary taint”, “the universal preference amongst the women for factory over domestic life”, “the school system”, “incompetent care”, “parental ignorance and neglect” and “juvenile smoking”, for instance. In a foreshadowing of the current Ultra Processed Food debate, it reports:

A striking consensus of opinion was elicited as to the effects of improper or insufficient food in determining physique, and this factor was acknowledged by every witness to be prominent among the causes to which degenerative tendencies might be assigned, though in one or two cases its relative importance was thought liable to exaggeration.

These latest figures about the catastrophic ill-health of our nation’s children surely ought to demand an equivalent commission. After all, what prompted the 1904 Fitzroy Report is not far off what is happening with today’s Army recruits – growing rejection owing to feeble mental and physical health. In 2019-2020, 28.9% of applicants were rejected for medical reasons growing to 39.2% in 2022-3. Of these, 54% of medical rejections between 2020-24 were for mental health or psychiatric reasons.

This is surely terrifying stuff – our mentally enfeebled young are not fit to fight, to be in school or work. What on earth has happened?

Someone surely should be trying to work out what’s to blame. White bread? Juvenile vaping? Out of town housing estates with no public transport? Smartphones? Gaming? Parental ignorance and neglect?  Perhaps others will take up my cry for a national inquiry and calls will grow for someone like Hillary Cass or Louise Casey to get to the bottom of it all.

Or perhaps such an inquiry would discover that actually there’s nothing wrong at all with these children. Instead it will become obvious that millions of healthy children and young adults are being used in an obscene financial grift by private health and education providers, mental health charities and a gullible welfare system.

Terrifying either way.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 03:30

Not Just Cigarettes, Vaping Likely Causes Cancer, Major Study Finds

A new report from researchers at the University of New South Wales in Australia, published in Carcinogenesis, finds that nicotine-based e-cigarettes are likely to cause lung and oral cancers, a finding that may alarm the millions of young people, from high school through college, and into the professional world, who use them heavily. 

Researchers examined human studies, animal experiments, and lab tests. Together, they found signs that vaping can damage DNA, cause inflammation and oxidative stress, and expose users to harmful chemicals considered drivers of cancer. Some rodent studies also found lung tumors after vape exposure.

"Nicotine-based e-cigarettes are likely to be carcinogenic to humans who use them, causing an indeterminate burden of oral cancer and lung cancer," the researchers wrote in the report.

The researchers still don't fully understand the long-term risks, given that vaping only entered commercial markets worldwide in the last 20 or so years. However, they say the warning signs are already present and should not be ignored as cigarette risks once were.

"Though smoking was once given the benefit of the doubt, the same should not now be accorded to vaping, given the strength of relevant carcinogenicity data," wrote study co-authors Freddy Sitas and Bernard Stewart of UNSW in a related commentary.

Vaping in the U.S. emerged in 2007 and was widely touted as a safer way to consume nicotine than traditional methods involving inhaling smoke from burning tobacco leaves. The trend exploded in 2015 with the introduction of Juul.

Millions of Americans started vaping to quit smoking cigarettes. Instead, if the study is correct, they may actually be increasing their health risks.

Vaping is not as harmless as once thought, and the researchers' point is that e-cigarettes should not receive the same "benefit of the doubt" cigarettes once did, because the cancer warning signs are already present.

Even before the assessment was released, NielsenIQ data showed e-cigarette sales in the U.S. were weak as of March 21 (according to the Goldman report, which can be viewed in full here for Pro subscribers):

Within Tobacco, dollar sales for BAT were up 1.8% over the past four weeks, versus 1.0% last month; sales for IMB were down 3.5% over the past four weeks, versus down 3.4% last month; and sales for MO were down 2.0% over the past four weeks, versus down 3.2% last month.

The question now is whether the study will go viral and alarm consumers enough with cancer fears, and whether those fears will be enough to change spending behavior in a way that shows up in the NielsenIQ data over the coming weeks.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/01/2026 - 02:45

Federal Judges Rule Against White House Ballroom, Defunding NPR And PBS

Another week, another couple of activist judges ruling against the Trump administration.

Architect Shalom Baranes shows a site plan for the White House ballroom during a meeting of the National Capital Planning Commission in Washington on Jan. 8, 2026. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

On Tuesday, federal judges issued orders blocking the ongoing ballroom construction at the White House, and halted federal agencies from pulling funding for National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting Service.

On the Ballroom: U.S. District Judge Richard Leon said the president of the United States “is the steward of the White House for future generations of First Families. He is not, however, the owner!”

Leon said Trump claims Congress gave the president authority in current statutes to build his East Wing ballroom project “and to do it with private funds.”

The National Trust for Historic Preservation argues the president has no such authority under existing laws and that a preliminary injunction is needed to avoid irreparable harm, the judge said. -Epoch Times

"I have concluded that the National Trust is likely to succeed on the merits because no statute comes close to giving the President the authority he claims to have," Leon continued - granting a preliminary injunction and ordering that "the ballroom construction project must stop until Congress authorizes its completion."

On NPR and PBS, U.S. District Judge Randolph Moss, based in Washington, said Trump’s order targeted the broadcasters, known as NPR and PBS, for their point of view. 

"The First Amendment does not tolerate viewpoint discrimination and retaliation of this type," he wrote in a 62-page decision. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, Trump’s May 1, 2025, order directed the end of funding for NPR and PBS. “Government funding of news media in this environment is not only outdated and unnecessary but corrosive to the appearance of journalistic independence,” he said, adding later that it did not matter which viewpoints NPR and PBS promoted, but “what does matter is that neither entity presents a fair, accurate, or unbiased portrayal of current events to taxpaying citizens.”

In a fact sheet released on the same day, the White House said that NPR and PBS had “fueled partisanship and left-wing propaganda with taxpayer dollars.”

Officials pointed to decisions such as NPR refusing to initially cover a story on a laptop computer that once belonged to President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden, and PBS featuring a drag queen on a program aimed at children as young as 3.

NPR and PBS soon filed separate lawsuits that alleged the funding cuts were unconstitutional.

NPR’s suit said that the order violated “the First Amendment’s bedrock guarantees of freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and freedom of association.”

In court filings, government lawyers had said the order did not impose unconstitutional conditions on speech, but “merely aligns the Government’s sponsorship of activities with its policy priorities” and “declines to extend federal funding for Plaintiffs’ programs.”

Moss said that he was declaring Trump’s order illegal and unenforceable, and barring all federal agencies named as defendants from implementing or enforcing it.

“This is a ridiculous ruling by an activist judge attempting to undermine the law,” Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman, told The Epoch Times in an email. “NPR and PBS have no right to receive taxpayer funds, and Congress already voted to defund them. The Trump Administration looks forward to ultimate victory on the issue.”

A PBS spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email that the outlet is thrilled with the decision.

“As we argued, and Judge Moss ruled, the executive order is textbook unconstitutional viewpoint discrimination and retaliation, in violation of longstanding First Amendment principles,” the spokesperson said. “At PBS, we will continue to do what we’ve always done: serve our mission to educate and inspire all Americans as the nation’s most trusted media institution.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 21:25

DOJ Sues Minnesota Over Rules For Girls Sports

Authored by Brett Rowland via The Center Square,

The U.S. Justice Department's Civil Rights Division filed a lawsuit Monday against Minnesota, alleging the state's sports policies violate federal civil rights laws that protect against sex-based discrimination.

Title IX, the landmark federal law enacted in 1972, prohibits sex-based discrimination in education programs and activities that receive federal funding.

The Justice Department's lawsuit marks a new legal fight in the ongoing national debate over transgender student participation in school sports, challenging Minnesota’s policies as a violation of federal protections against sex-based discrimination.

The lawsuit contends that the Minnesota Department of Education and the Minnesota State High School League have engaged in sex-based discrimination by requiring girls to compete against boys in sports designated for girls.

"The Trump Administration does not tolerate flawed state policies that ignore biological reality and unfairly undermine girls on the playing field," Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a statement.

The lawsuit asks a judge to rule that Minnesota's policies regarding student athletes are illegal and to declare that the state has violated Title IX. The DOJ said Minnesota gets $3 billion in yearly federal funding.

Federal prosecutors argue that the state's policies "eviscerate equal athletic opportunities for girls."

"They also require girls to share intimate spaces – such as locker rooms – with boys. Allowing boys to invade sensitive female-only spaces endangers girls' privacy, dignity, and safety – causing a hostile educational environment that denies girls educational opportunities," attorneys for the Civil Rights Division wrote in the complaint against the state.

Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said his office will stand up for transgender students.

"In April of last year, I sued the Trump administration to stop them from targeting trans kids who just want to play on their school team," he said in a statement to The Center Square. "This new suit is just a sad attempt to get attention over something that's already been in litigation for months."

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 20:35