Zero Hedge

Worth Every Dollar (Until It Isn't)

Worth Every Dollar (Until It Isn't)

Authored by Bryan Lutz via DollarCollapse.com,

Jamie Dimon just gave the trillion-dollar AI capex boom his blessing.

Standing next to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei in New York on Tuesday, the JPMorgan chief told Wall Street that the buildout is “worth the trillion-dollar investment”… a sentence that would have been a punchline two years ago.

Now it feels like even the mainstream media disagrees with the consensus.

Here’s the problem...

BofA Global Research charted every market concentration peak of the last sixty years on a single line:

Four bubbles. Four peaks. All in roughly the same 40-44% concentration band.

And we just printed the fourth one.

The world’s largest bank cosigned the bet at the exact level the last three manias topped out.

Axios reports:

Jamie Dimon blesses the trillion-dollar AI capex boom

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stood next to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei in New York on Tuesday and told Wall Street the AI buildout is worth every dollar.

Why it matters: With investors increasingly anxious about whether AI revenue can keep pace with spending, the head of the world’s largest bank endorsed a capital expenditure wave projected to top $1 trillion next year.

  • The latest Big Tech earnings reports last week made clear that the massive buildout is propping up not only the stock market, but U.S. economic growth writ large.

  • “The technology is so powerful, it’s worth the trillion-dollar investment,” Dimon said at an Anthropic event unveiling new partnerships and AI agents tailored to financial services.

Zoom in: Dimon and Amodei also addressed Mythos, Anthropic’s powerful new model whose cyber capabilities prompted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to convene an emergency meeting with major bank CEOs last month.

  • Dimon, who was invited but unable to attend that meeting, said the banks have since gotten together to “triage the issues” — and argued protections should extend to all banks, not just the largest.

  • “The government can’t do all that,” he said.

  • Amodei said he had a great conversation with Bessent and pushed back on the suggestion that Mythos’s limited release was driven by compute constraints, calling that a “misconception.”

So a banker blesses a trillion-dollar bet, the regulators panic about a single AI model, and the index rips on the back of seven names doing all the spending.

This is what late-cycle capex manias look like in real time… every cycle has them, and every cycle ends the same way.

Stack accordingly.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 14:10

"Stunning Quarter": Highest Earnings Growth In Over Two Decades

"Stunning Quarter": Highest Earnings Growth In Over Two Decades

Yesterday, Deutsche Bank's head of thematic research published his latest chartbook, "The Great 2026 Reset," which delves into the market and political implications of the Iran conflict (available here to pro subs).

One key topic explored by Reid is the remarkable US Q1 earnings season. As we previewed ahead of the start of reporting seasons, earnings are significantly exceeding consensus estimates across all metrics, despite a high bar.

S&P 500 earnings growth is projected to accelerate sharply from 13.4% in Q4 to 24.6% in Q1 – a four-year high and a level rarely seen outside of post-shock recoveries. Excluding special factors, this represents arguably the strongest earnings growth in two decades.

The AI boom is a clear contributor, but strength is widespread, with double-digit growth seen in average and median companies, and all 11 sectors posting positive growth for the first time in four years. This strong performance has in many places been driven by higher prices amid supply constraints, surging demand within the AI value chain, and other disruptions.

In light of these robust Q1 results, DB has raised its 2026 EPS forecast from $320 to $342, driven by strong Q1 beats, gravity-defying performance in MCG & Tech, and higher oil and commodity prices.

Reid says it's worth noting that while the US equity market has outperformed many markets since the start of the Iran conflict, this has only moved it from the bottom quartile to the middle of the global pack year-to-date.

Even with a surge since the conflict began, tech performance over the past six months (since the end of October) shows only a modest increase.

Given current high valuations, strong earnings growth is helping the US market "grow into" these valuations, yet other markets have demonstrated notably better performance over the last 18 months.

More in the full DB note available here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 13:55

Iranian President Says Iran Willing To Prove Peaceful Nature Of Nuclear Program

Iranian President Says Iran Willing To Prove Peaceful Nature Of Nuclear Program

Iran has told other regional countries that it is ready to 'prove' that its nuclear program is peaceful in nature, and that it is willing to meet international standards in that regard, according to the Iranian presidency.

This comes as Iran's Foreign Ministry has insisted that the nuclear issue be left out of talks related to ending the war with the US, with a statement saying that "at this stage, we do not have nuclear negotiations" - but which remains a key demand by Washington.

Within years after the first Trump administration unilaterally pulling out of the earlier Obama JCPOA nuclear deal, the Iranians had booted IAEA inspectors from the country, citing that the deal was collapsing due to Washington policies, which included the reimposition of far-reaching sanctions.

Anadolu Agency

The appeal for international verification that its program is for peaceful nuclear energy and domestic consumption comes via Turkish media this week:

Iran is fully prepared to meet global standards to demonstrate the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, the presidency said on Tuesday.

The remarks came during a phone call between President Masoud Pezeshkian and Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi, according to a statement from Iran’s presidency.

Pezeshkian said Iran had shown full readiness in all negotiations to offer assurances within the framework of international regulations and global monitoring mechanisms. He criticized what he described as contradictory US policies, saying Washington continues to apply pressure while simultaneously calling for negotiations.

Iraq's Zaidi in turn said Baghdad is prepared to support de-escalation efforts and could host talks between Iran and the United States, according to the statement. Iraq itself has been deeply impacted by the war, and Iran has even fired ballistic missiles and drones on the north, reportedly targeting US troop installations in or near Erbil in Kurdistan.

Also, earlier this week widely a Reuters report raised eyebrows and serious questions related to the effectiveness of the 38-day aerial campaign which saw US-Israel bombs unleashed in the many thousands (combined: some 20,000+ munitions expended) on the Islamic Republic.

"US intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a US-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year, according to three sources familiar with the matter," the report lays out.

"The assessments of Tehran's nuclear program remain broadly unchanged even after two months of a war that US President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb," it continued.

New satellite imagery: Iran may have taken fresh "passive defensive measures" near Natanz nuclear facility...

President Trump as well as Israeli leadership have persisted in advancing the narrative than Tehran is bent on achieving a nuclear bomb, something which the Iranians have repeatedly denied. But there's a concern over deep division between the IRGC and civilian leadership, with 'hardliners' in the former camp seen as more ready to seek a nuke.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 13:35

DOJ To Ask Supreme Court To Intervene In E. Jean Carroll's Lawsuit Against Trump

DOJ To Ask Supreme Court To Intervene In E. Jean Carroll's Lawsuit Against Trump

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) said it will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to allow it to intervene in President Donald Trump’s appeal of the $83.3 million jury award E. Jean Carroll won against him in a defamation lawsuit.

The DOJ will ask the Supreme Court to substitute the United States for Trump in the lawsuit, arguing that in 2019, during his first term as president, when Trump denied Carroll’s sexual assault claims against him, he was acting as an employee of the government.

Assistant U.S. Attorney General Brett Shumate said in a filing with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit on May 5 that the DOJ will invoke the federal Westfall Act in a bid to substitute the federal government for Trump as the defendant in the lawsuit. The appeals court previously denied the request to replace Trump as the defendant.

The DOJ argues that Trump is immune from suit because he was acting within the scope of his presidential duties and speaking on matters of public concern when he made the statements about Carroll that led to the $83.3 million verdict.

A federal jury ordered Trump to pay those damages over the statements in which he denied the sexual assault allegations and accused Carroll of lying.

The Westfall Act shields federal employees from common law tort lawsuits arising from their government employment.

Common law refers to the body of law developed over centuries by court rulings, as opposed to statutes passed by legislatures. A tort is a wrongful act or infringement of a right that gives rise to civil liability.

If a federal employee is sued in his individual capacity for a tort that occurred while he was acting within the scope of his employment for the government, the act states that “the United States shall be substituted as the party defendant,” and the court will dismiss the employee from the lawsuit.

Carroll, an author, testified during a 2023 trial that Trump attacked her around 1996 in a dressing room in a department store near Trump Tower in New York City. Trump denied the allegations.

In its May 2023 verdict, a federal jury held Trump liable both for sexually abusing Carroll and defaming her when he made statements in October 2022 denying her allegations. The jury awarded Carroll $5 million in damages.

The Second Circuit upheld both the $5 million verdict and the $83.3 million verdict on appeal.

Shumate urged the Second Circuit to stay the award, noting that the DOJ intends to file a petition with the Supreme Court challenging the circuit’s denial of a request to substitute the government as defendant in the lawsuit.

The Epoch Times reached out to Carroll’s attorney, Roberta A. Kaplan, for comment. No reply was received by publication time.

Separately, on May 5, Trump asked the Second Circuit to stay the award to give him time to prepare an appeal to the Supreme Court over the circuit court’s rulings.

Trump previously filed a petition with the Supreme Court in November 2025 to challenge the $5 million verdict. It is unclear when the high court will act on it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 13:15

Inflation Expectations Jump To 3 Year High As Financial Pessimism Surges: NY Fed Survey

Inflation Expectations Jump To 3 Year High As Financial Pessimism Surges: NY Fed Survey

Ahead of tomorrow's jobs report which is expected to show a substantial slowdown from last month's 178K surge, moments ago we got another reminder that the stagflationary iceberg remains front and center ahead of the US, after the NY Fed's latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reported that Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon rose again to 3.64% in April from the previous month’s 3.42%, the highest since September 2023. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.15% for the three-year-ahead horizon and also unchanged at 3.01% at the five-year-ahead horizon in April. 

The jump in year-ahead expectations took place even though 1 year gas inflation expectations tumbled sharply in April to 5.11% from 9.42% in April, which had been the highest reading since March 2022.

Other commodity price change expectations also rose, but to a more limited degree: food prices are now expected to rise 5.2%, down from 6%; medical costs to rise 9.6%, also a bit lower than the 9.7% in March; the price of a college education to rise 8.8% (down from 9%); and rent prices should drop from 7.1% to 6.0%.

Turning to the labor market, sentiment has continued to deteriorate fast with respondents saying that the mean probability the US unemployment rate will be higher next year rose another 0.4% (after the 3.6% jump a month ago) to 43.9%; highest reading since April 2025

On the other end, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations rose by 0.3% to 2.7% in March, tied for the highest since April 2025.

More bad news: the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased again, this time by 0.2% to 14.6%, tied with the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months declined by 0.1% to 18.2%.

A silver lining: the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was increased modestly by 0.1% to 46.0%, while remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 47.5%. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.

Perceptions about households’ current financial situations also deteriorated compared to a year ago, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also worsened, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation at its highest level since April 2025, and a smaller share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago also deteriorated, with a higher share of households reporting it is harder to get credit and a smaller share of households reporting it is easier to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.

 There was a glimmer of good news when it comes to household debt: the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.9% to 11.4% the lowest reading in more than two years and below the 12-month trailing average of 13.2%. 

But the most concerning data was that expectations for household income dropped again, for a 5th straight months, sliding to just 2.8%, the lowest since Oct 2025...

... while spending growth expectations jumped to 5.4% - after all those inflation-adjusted prices aren't going down without a recession - the highest since July 2023.

And some more Household Finance observations:

  • The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.4%.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.2 percentage point to 10.0%, its highest reading since June 2023.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased to 26.7%, its highest reading since November 2024.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 2.1 percentage points to 38.4%

More in the full report from the NY Fed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 12:44

Boeing Shares Rise As CEO Set To Join Trump On China Trip, Fueling Aircraft Order Speculation

Boeing Shares Rise As CEO Set To Join Trump On China Trip, Fueling Aircraft Order Speculation

Boeing shares rose in late-morning trading in New York after CNBC reported that CEO Kelly Ortberg will join President Trump on his trip to Beijing next week for talks with President Xi Jinping.

Boeing shares climbed a little more than 2% on the news as traders began to price in the possibility of a Chinese aircraft order, potentially covering both narrow-body and wide-body jets from the U.S.-based aircraft manufacturer.

Senator Steve Daines, who is leading the bipartisan delegation to China, has called for stability and peaceful cooperation between the U.S. and China.

"I strongly believe that we want to de-escalate, not decouple. We want stability; we want mutual respect," Daines said in opening remarks at a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Thursday, according to Reuters.

Daines also released a statement:

Readout of Daines' Congressional Delegation Trip to China

U.S. Senators Steve Daines (R-MT), Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Jerry Moran (R-KS), and Deb Fischer (R-NE) today conducted three official meetings in Beijing with Premier of China Li Qiang, Chairman of the National People's Congress Zhao Leji, and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The bipartisan delegation discussed the importance of direct and open communication between the leadership of the two countries as well as issues of international and local importance. Topics of discussion included cooperation to stop the flow of fentanyl precursors, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and supply chain security. The Senators discussed the importance of reciprocal trade and opening up China's markets to sustained agriculture trade across beef, wheat, pulse crops, potatoes, apples, cherries, soybeans, grain sorghum, seafood, and other industries. The delegation also discussed the importance of China's relationship with Boeing and the proposed aircraft purchase currently under consideration. The Senators expressed their hope for an impactful and successful summit between President Trump and President Xi next week.

Related:

Semafor speculates that the Trump team will invite "CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing, and other big companies." 

Given Beijing's history of using large commercial aircraft purchases as goodwill gestures, Ortberg's inclusion on the trip raises the likelihood that Boeing could benefit and suggests tensions are cooling between the two superpowers, despite ongoing energy and trade turmoil in the Gulf region.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 12:25

Planet Fitness Crashes Most On Record After Membership Slump Hits Outlook

Planet Fitness Crashes Most On Record After Membership Slump Hits Outlook

Planet Fitness shares crashed the most on record, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2015, after the budget gym operator slashed its full-year outlook, citing weaker-than-expected new-member sign-ups during the first quarter.

CEO Colleen Keating told analysts, "We faced some internal and external headwinds that impacted our join momentum year-to-date."

Keating said, "Our overall performance reflects the strength and resiliency of our model. However, the addition of more than 700,000 net new members during the quarter did not meet our expectations."

She continued, "Severe cold and winter weather in late January and February disrupted joins, especially as several of the storms fell on Mondays, our busiest join day of the week. We anticipated that our March campaign, Black Card first month free, which was very successful during the same time last year, would improve our join momentum over the remainder of Q1 and into Q2," adding, "Yet as we moved through March and into early April, our join trends remained below our plan."

Planet Fitness now expects 2026 sales growth of about 7%, down from prior guidance of roughly 9%. It also cut its adjusted EPS growth outlook to about 4%, well below the Bloomberg Consensus of 9.7%.

Here's a snapshot of the full-year forecast, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • Sees club sales growth up about 1%, saw up about 4% to 5%

  • Sees revenue up about 7%, saw about up 9%

  • Sees adjusted EBITDA up about 6%, saw about up 10%

  • Still sees system-wide new club openings of about 180 to 190 locations

While first-quarter sales and profit beat Bloomberg Consensus estimates, traders focused on dismal membership trends. Shares crashed 32% in the early U.S. cash session.

In the year, Planet Fitness shares are down nearly 60%, trading at levels last seen in Covid 2020 lows. Shares have fallen 61% since late 2025.

Not one analyst questioned Planet Fitness executives on whether GLP-1 trends impacted membership.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 11:55

Beijing Flip-Flops, Asks Banks To Pause Loans To Sanctioned Refiners Days After Ordering Them To Ignore Sanctions

Beijing Flip-Flops, Asks Banks To Pause Loans To Sanctioned Refiners Days After Ordering Them To Ignore Sanctions

Over the weekend, we reported that in what some called a "watershed moment", Beijing ordered Chinese companies not to comply with US sanctions on five domestic refiners linked to the Iranian oil trade, deploying for the first time a blocking measure introduced in 2021 that was aimed at protecting its firms from foreign laws it deemed unjustified. Of note, China's refiners - including Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery which was sanctioned last month and several other privately-owned processors - had been facing asset freezes and transaction bans. Hengli was the most ambitious target to date in China’s refining sector, and underscores US eagerness to push Iran to the negotiating table at all costs, even just weeks before an expected and long-awaited meeting between Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping. 

Well, maybe not. In an apparent reversal of its blocking measure orders, overnight Bloomberg reported that China’s financial regulator advised the country’s largest banks to temporarily suspend new loans to five refiners recently sanctioned by the US over their ties to Iranian oil.

The National Financial Regulatory Administration asked banks to review their exposure and business dealings with firms including the abovementioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, one of China’s largest private refiners, while awaiting further guidance. For now, banks have been guided not to extend new yuan-denominated credit, though they have also been told not to call in existing loans, Bloomberg's sources said. 

The verbal directive, which came before China entered a long holiday weekend on May 1 and ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit contrasts with a May 2 notice from China’s Ministry of Commerce, which instructed companies to disregard US sanctions. That was the first time China had deployed a blocking measure introduced in 2021 aimed at protecting its firms from foreign laws it deemed unjustified.

While China has often railed against unilateral sanctions, it has in past instances also quietly allowed its largest companies to comply with them, in order to avoid blowback on its own economy. Its largest state banks have a history of complying with US sanctions against Iran, North Korea, and even top officials in Hong Kong to avoid losing access to the US dollar clearing system. In earlier episodes, Beijing sought to shield its systemically important lenders by channeling Iran-related transactions through China National Petroleum Corp’s subsidiary Bank of Kunlun Co., which is currently sanctioned. 

As Bloomberg notes, the moves highlight the balancing act Beijing faces as it tries to project defiance toward the Trump administration while shielding its largest state-owned banks from US secondary sanctions. Tensions are escalating between the superpowers just weeks before a long-awaited meeting between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14–15. 

Meanwhile, the White House has been ratcheting up efforts to cut off Iranian oil shipments to starve the Tehran regime for which oil remains the most vital financial lifeline. Late last month, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control blacklisted Hengli, targeting a significant and well-connected player in the country’s vast crude-processing industry. The US also warned banks they are at risk of secondary sanctions if they support Chinese private refiners that buy Iranian oil.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US sent letters to two Chinese banks warning them of the risk of secondary sanctions if they are found to be supporting transactions tied to Iran. Bessent didn’t identify the banks. 

Separately, but perhaps linked to this, China’s independent refiners have slowed purchases of Iranian crude as they seek to manage a government push to make fuel at any cost to ensure energy security while they face collapsing profit margins.

There are about 16 million barrels on ships anchored in the Yellow Sea off the Chinese coast, almost 40% higher than the level prior to a US blockade of Iran’s ports in mid-April, according to data from Kpler. Already razor-thin teapot margins plunged to record negative levels after the cordon began, while Iran’s oil prices have climbed since the war started, compounding the economic stress on independent refiners.

While the cost of Iranian crude is now fetching a slight premium to ICE Brent, compared with discounts prior to the war, China’s domestic fuel policy is also crimping refiners’ profits. Price hikes are often softened to help shield consumers, preventing processors from fully passing on rising costs. Above all, Chna’s "energy security" is the dominant theme, even if it means an entire industry has to suffer huge losses.

The smaller processors, known as teapots, have little choice but to keep making fuels such as diesel and gasoline. They have been told by Beijing to keep output at 2025 levels, even if they incur losses, or face cuts to their oil import quotas. Refining rates in Shandong province ramped up over April to the highest level in almost two years, even as processing margins sunk deeply into the red.

Chinese purchases of Iranian oil are expected to be above 1.4 million barrels a day this year, down from a March peak of 1.8 million barrels a day, according to Emma Li, lead China market analyst at Vortexa Ltd. “China’s demand for high-risk crude is unlikely to weaken materially,” she said. 

“I would not be surprised if the teapots are prioritizing politics over economics with an eye to their long-term survival,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “They may be calculating that if they do their part to help China weather the energy crisis, then maybe they will build up some goodwill in Beijing.”

China's teapots have a checkered history with government authorities. They have resisted efforts by Beijing to consolidate the industry in the past, but proved crucial for China’s fuel security in the 2000s. Iran also relies heavily on the smaller refiners, which buy most of the OPEC producer’s crude.

“In China, during special times like this, it becomes a political mission for private refiners to help secure fuel supplies,” said Liao Na, the founder of GL Consulting, which provides research on the Chinese refining industry.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 11:40

Shake Shack Shares Crash Most On Record; McDonald's CEO Warns Of Faltering Consumer

Shake Shack Shares Crash Most On Record; McDonald's CEO Warns Of Faltering Consumer

Shake Shack shares crashed the most on record after the burger chain reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA, with management blaming the miss on "significant weather impacts."

But the weather excuse may be masking a much larger problem: a weakening consumer increasingly pushing back against premium fast-casual pricing, with the average Shake Shack meal costing around $23.

SHAK reported first-quarter results that missed Bloomberg Consensus estimates, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA coming in light as the burger chain faced margin pressure despite positive comparable sales.

Here's a snapshot of first-quarter results, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Revenue: $366.7 million, estimate $372.5 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

Shack sales: $354.0 million, estimate $358.7 million

Licensing revenue: $12.7 million

Adjusted EBITDA: $37.0 million, estimate $45.5 million

Comparable sales: +4.6%, estimate +4.65%

Traffic growth: 1.4%

Restaurant-level operating margin: 21.2%, estimate 21.9%

CEO Rob Lynch noted that soaring beef costs rose by a low-teens percentage, while unfavorable weather eroded profit. Underlying sales and traffic momentum remained solid in the quarter.

Wall Street analysts were not thrilled with the earnings report. Shares crashed by the most on record, plunging 29% in the early U.S. cash session.

For the year, shares are down 17% and now trading at early-2024 levels.

Separately, Shake Shack announced in a separate release that Michelle Hook will be appointed as the new CFO next Monday.

Earlier, McDonald's CEO warned that current consumer environment is getting pressured: "Clearly, when you have elevated gas prices, which is the core issue that I think we’re all seeing about in the press right now, gas prices, inflation on that, that is going to disproportionately impact low-income consumers. And so we expect the pressures there are going to continue."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 11:25

Hormuz To Year-End: Bullish Or Bearish?

Hormuz To Year-End: Bullish Or Bearish?

With hopes of a permanent truce being continually undermined by minor skirmishes and blockade infringements, it remains unclear whether this war is close to ending. And while oil prices gyrate from one Trump Truth post to the next, two weeks of Brent above $100/barrel (only just inching below as of this morning) suggests the market is not buying into the quick resolution narrative.

Though it is worth asking the question, what if the peace talks are truly different this time?

Joining ZeroHedge tonight at 7pm ET to answer what a post-Hormuz reopening means for markets will be former Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Adam Parker, who now runs Trivariate Research, and Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Parker and Pento will be hosted by Adam Taggart, founder of Thoughtful Money and regular ZH moderator.

Context:

The U.S. and Iran are reportedly close to a preliminary peace agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease shipping restrictions, and begin a broader 30-day negotiation process. Reuters and Axios reported the draft framework could be finalized within days.

President Trump paused “Project Freedom,” the U.S. naval operation escorting ships through Hormuz, specifically to give diplomacy room to advance. Officials described the move as a confidence-building step tied directly to ongoing negotiations.

Markets reacted as if a breakthrough is increasingly likely. Oil prices plunged 7%+ yesterday on the reports.

A potential wrench in the works, Israel remains eager to continue striking Tehran and claims it did not know Trump and the Iranians were ‘close’ to a deal. Israel has also continued bombing Lebanon despite President Trump’s April 17 demand that they stop.

Even assuming the best case scenario of an imminent reopening, baked-in supply disruptions may be sufficient to trigger a recession later in the year. 

Might a post-Hormuz “peace rally” be short-lived upon the realization of a weak real economy, burdened by higher gas, fertilizer, and food prices?

Tonight:

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET to hear from Pento, Parker, and Taggart to see how they are positioned into year-end. Right here on the ZH homepage, X feed, and YouTube channel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 11:10

Saudi Arabia Vs UAE

Saudi Arabia Vs UAE

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

The Little Red Hen

Markets are bulled-up this morning on prospects for peace in the Iran war. The S&P500 and NASDAQ closed at fresh all-time highs and Brent crude prices closed 7.8% lower at $101.27/bbl. While some analysts are understandably wary of another Axios report touting progress in Middle East relations (and therefore lower oil prices!), markets are clearly not in a mood to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Ismail Baghieri told news sources that Iran is reviewing a 14-point American memo that outlines terms for peace. Axios reports that those terms include Iran giving up the nuclear fuel that it has enriched to near-weapons-grade (though, there is no detail on who they would give it up to), an Iranian commitment to never seek a nuclear weapon, moratoriums on Iranian nuclear enrichment, Iranian agreement to enhanced UN-led nuclear inspections, and a framework to gradually restore navigation through Hormuz and lift US sanctions.

The IRGC Navy announced via X that safe transit through Hormuz would be ensured. This comes just 24 hours after Donald Trump paused Operation Freedom, an initiative to free commercial ships trapped in the Persian Gulf that triggered exchanges of fire between Iran and the US and its allies – most notably the UAE. In a curious case of timing, Iran officially launched a new government agency called the ‘Persian Gulf Strait Authority’, which perhaps raises the probability that transit through Hormuz will not look as it did prior to the war, and that the Iranian tollbooth could be a concession made by the American side to get a deal done.

This has far-reaching implications for the post-war order. At face value, acceding to Iran operating Hormuz as a tollbooth looks like an American strategic defeat since it leaves the GCC and ‘the West’ in a worse position than prior to the war with respect to energy and other commodity flows. It also sets an uncomfortable precedent whereby other countries might get the idea that freedom of navigation through natural maritime chokepoints is no longer sacrosanct, and certainly no longer underwritten by US naval power for free. Regular readers will recall that an Indonesian minister recently did a bit of kite flying on the idea of tolling the Strait of Malacca, which would have sent a chill up the spine of most of East Asia and Oceania and drew quick (but polite) denunciations across the region.

On the plus side for the Americans, leaving Hormuz in nominal Iranian control would only increase the incentive for the GCC to build the infrastructure to send oil West to Israeli ports or Southeast into the Gulf of Oman. It seems awfully coincidental that the UAE announced that it would be leaving OPEC immediately after the US agreed to provide it with dollar swaplines, which are usually reserved for European allies. It seems to be the case that the UAE has answered the call to partner with the US and Israel because the latter two provided it with support versus Iran where others didn’t. This could mean that the UAE supports US ambitions after the war ends by pumping more crude than would have been the case had it remained in OPEC, but the question of where that oil flows and whether it remains part of a mostly fungible world market now looms.

This may rub Saudi Arabia the wrong way given that the Kingdom vies with the UAE for influence in the region and the two have been at odds recently in Yemen. Media reports that Trump’s decision to pause Operation Freedom came after Saudi Arabia suspended permission for the US military to use its bases and airspace to support it. Was this decision by Saudi Arabia informed by deepening US ties with the UAE?

There is also the question of how Europe fits in with a post-war order. France is now moving the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier and its escorts towards the Middle East to support a Franco-British led mission to support freedom of movement through Hormuz. British PM Starmer, meanwhile, is in campaign mode for today’s round of UK local government elections, making the pitch that he kept Britain out of the war while his opponents from the Conservative Party and Reform were of a mind to support the Americans.

This reminds me of the story of the little red hen:

US: “Who will help me to ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon?”
“Not I!” said France. “Not I!” said Britain. “Not I!” said South Korea. “Not I!” said Australia.
US: “Fine. Then I will do it myself.”

US: “Who will help me to re-open the Strait of Hormuz?”
“Not I!” said France. “Not I!” said Britain. “Not I!” said South Korea. “Not I!” said Australia.
US: “Fine. Then I will do it myself.”

US: “Who will help me to consume the cheap energy from Venezuela, the US homeland, and the UAE?”
“I will!” said France. “I will!” said Britain. “I will!” said South Korea. “I will!” said Australia.
US: ...you get the picture.

The point here is that the US is now in the business of securing physical supply chains and membership of the supply chain club brings not only privileges, but also responsibilities. Namely: the responsibility to meaningfully contribute to the attainment of common geopolitical goals. It doesn’t bear reminding that the US has been critical of NATO and the EU, and the latest US national security strategy openly questions whether political and demographic changes might mean that Western countries won’t be US allies at all in a few years’ time. One need only look at the political preferences of Gen Zs in those countries to understand the concern.

There are diverging reactions to this across the rest of the West. Canada under Mark Carney and – to a certain extent – France under Emmanuel Macron have taken up the mantle of official leaders of the opposition to Trumpism and the breaking of the liberal world order to remake the global settlement in a way that allows the US to respond to Chinese production and supply chain dominance. Israel, the UAE and Argentina are “all the way with Donald J”, Japan and Australia (who has just announced an 82% tariff against Chinese steel) are increasingly leaning that way as defense and economic ties deepen and geographical realities overrule the luxury of preference.

Which way various countries choose to jump will inform market access, investment decisions, supply chain access, cost of credit and all sorts of other important variables in the future. Choose wisely, dear reader.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 10:55

eBay Nukes GameStop CEO's Account After Buyout Stunt

eBay Nukes GameStop CEO's Account After Buyout Stunt Well...  GameStop CEO's eBay Account Nuked 

GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen revealed on X that his eBay account was suspended after he listed a pair of "used socks" on the auction website, a publicity stunt that comes as he pursues a $56 billion bid to acquire the online marketplace.

Cohen listed a pair of used socks on his eBay account, but it appears he also listed other items, as the warning notification in the screenshot he posted on X shows: "You've reached the amount ($50,000) you can list this month."

Hours after he shared a screenshot of his used socks eBay listing on X, he posted late Wednesday that his account "has been permanently suspended."

Cohen's eBay ban comes days after he made a $56 billion buyout bid for eBay, funded by "half cash, half stock."

On Monday, Cohen joined CNBC's Andrew Sorkin to discuss GameStop's bid for eBay.

Sorkin asked Cohen, "How does the math work for you?"

That was the moment Cohen provided little information on the basic math, instead referring back to a press release, as well as the $20 billion financing letter from TD. That interview raised more financing questions, with some believing the takeover bid for the auction site was merely a stunt.

"Big Short" investor Michael Burry went from saying "GameStop Makes Its Play $56 Billion for eBay, Makes Perfect Sense" one day, to exiting his long GameStop position the next day, citing: "Wall Street does indeed mistake debt for creativity, and does so constantly. I of all people should have known."

As we pointed out earlier in the week, Wall Street analysts were widely skeptical of the financing deal, given that eBay's market cap is 4 times that of GameStop's.

GameStop's 13D filing shows Cohen's eBay position: derivatives, or option calls, represent 99.89% (22,176,000 shares) of its $EBAY position.

Certainly, Cohen is attention-seeking... Was the stunt all about trying to cash in on eBay call options?

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 10:40

Marijuana Vendors Sued For Allegedly Not Warning Consumers Of Risks

Marijuana Vendors Sued For Allegedly Not Warning Consumers Of Risks

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Companies that legally sell recreational marijuana to adults are being sued in Illinois and Connecticut for allegedly not warning customers of the possible health problems caused by the drug.

Attorneys for the plaintiffs say these proposed class actions—four in all—that were filed May 4 in federal and state courts are the first of their kind. Federal and state court rules govern whether a class action gets certified and is allowed to proceed.

The lawsuits come after recent studies reported that marijuana use can change human DNA and cause psychosis, and that the drug increases the risk of death from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other causes.

The newly filed legal complaints say that cannabis is highly addictive and can contribute to mental health disorders such as schizophrenia, suicidal ideation, and depression.

About 129 million Americans say they have used marijuana at some point in their lives. As more states legalize use of the drug, that figure is expected to rise.

The lawsuits allege that the defendants—Cresco, Curaleaf, Green Thumb Industries, and Verano—marketed recreational marijuana for its supposed medicinal benefits to generate billions of dollars in revenues, while not letting consumers know of health risks.

Attorney Jack Franks in Marengo, Illinois, said the plaintiffs are seeking damages for overpaying or being misled into buying the products.

They are also seeking clear product warnings that spell out the mental and physical health risks, Franks told The Epoch Times.

“It’s a legal product in many states, but it’s not adequately laid out what the risks are,” he said. 

“They deliberately marketed highly potent products while concealing the known risks. Our clients deserve the truth.”

Attorney James Bilsborrow of New York City said the case rests upon “decades of gold-standard medical research establishing that cannabis, especially high-potency cannabis, is wreaking havoc on public health.”

“Rather than warn consumers about these well-established dangers, the cannabis industry, following the tobacco and opioid industries’ playbook, has denied the risks and marketed its products as safe or even therapeutic,” he told The Epoch Times.

The plaintiffs in the Illinois lawsuit are 41 consumers who purchased cannabis products, according to the federal class action filed in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois.

The legal complaint alleges that cannabis purveyors promote their products to “an unsuspecting public through a public relations megaphone as the antidote to ailments of all kinds, including, among others, insomnia, narcolepsy, over-eating, cancer, auto-immune disorders, neuropathy, pain, anger, boredom, sadness, shyness, irritable bowel syndrome, grief, and opioid addiction.”

The similar Connecticut lawsuit names as plaintiffs 18 consumers who bought marijuana products.

The legal complaints for the lawsuits filed in state courts in Illinois and Connecticut were not available at publication time. The plaintiffs’ attorneys said the state lawsuits are largely the same as the federal lawsuits.

A Verano spokesman told The Epoch Times that the company strongly disagrees “with the allegations and [intends] to defend the matter vigorously.”

“This lawsuit is part of a broader litigation campaign that plaintiffs’ counsel has brought against several multi-state cannabis operators, and mirrors claims that have been rejected by courts in similar legal actions against multi-state operators in the industry earlier this year,” the company said.

Verano complies with applicable state laws and regulations, including those related to labeling, testing, and warning requirements, the company said.

“The medical use and benefits of cannabis have also long been recognized by the states themselves, as reflected in the comprehensive medical marijuana programs that state legislatures and regulators have established and overseen for years.”

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to the defendants, Cresco, Curaleaf, and Green Thumb Industries.

No replies were received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 10:25

UAE Slips Hidden Oil Tankers Through Straits Of Hormuz

UAE Slips Hidden Oil Tankers Through Straits Of Hormuz

While conventional wisdom, especially after Trump's counter-blockade of Iran's blockade, that the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, the reality is that the UAE is now running loaded crude tankers through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz with transponders switched off - just like sanctioned Iranian ghost fleets in the pre-war period - just to pry loose a fraction of the oil bottled up in the Gulf.

According to shipping data reported by Reuters, industry sources, and satellite tracking, Emirati state-owned energy giant ADNOC and willing Asian buyers have moved at least 6 million barrels of Upper Zakum and Das crude out of the Gulf in April alone via four tankers. While that’s a drop in the bucket compared to pre-war exports, it proves participants are willing to roll the dice with Iranian drones and speedboats to unlock trapped supply.

At the same time, other Gulf heavyweights Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have largely thrown in the towel. Saudi Arabia is rerouting via the Red Sea where possible. Only the UAE is playing an occasional round of Russian roulette through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.

Dark Fleet Playbook Comes to Abu Dhabi

Emirati tankers are sailing with AIS trackers deliberately shut off, the same tactic Tehran has used for years to evade U.S. sanctions. One VLCC, the Hafeet (managed by ADNOC’s own logistics arm), loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum on April 7, slipped through the strait by April 15, then did a ship-to-ship transfer to the Olympic Luck outside, which delivered it to Malaysia’s Pengerang refinery (a Petronas-Aramco JV). 

Another, the Aliakmon I, carried 2 million barrels of Das crude out on April 27 and dumped it into Oman’s Ras Markaz storage. Two Suezmax tankers headed straight to South Korean refiners.

One Upper Zakum parcel fetched a record $20 premium over official selling prices which explains why UAE sellers are willing to risk it all just to get it to a desperate buyer.

ADNOC has already slashed exports by over 1 million bpd since the Iran war kicked off February 28, down sharply from 3.1 million bpd last year. Most of its remaining volumes move via the safer Fujairah pipeline route, but the Gulf-side crude is now trapped.

Meanwhile, between the combined Iranian and US blockades on Iranian barrels, roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply has been disrupted. Brent and WTI have responded accordingly, trading well north of $100.

Still, the dangers aren’t theoretical. On Monday, the UAE accused Iran of drone-attacking the empty ADNOC tanker Barakah in the strait. Yet the loaded runs continue. 

ADNOC is already notifying customers it plans to keep loading Das and Upper Zakum from inside the Gulf in May, with ship-to-ship transfers outside at Fujairah or Oman’s Sohar. Talks with Asian refiners are ongoing. 

Not that this needs to be repeated, as we have been doing every day for the past 2+ months, but this episode again exposes the fragility of global physical energy flows. A fifth of supply can be choked off by regional war, yet the system is so tight that buyers in Southeast Asia and Korea are still lining up for whatever dribbles through, even if there is a clear risk it could end up as a flaming fireball somewhere in the Persian Gulf. This, as inventories are draining at a record pace among buyers of oil, storage is filling to the brim at the sellers, prices are bid and the risk premium is only getting fatter.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Gulf sits on barrels it can’t (or won’t) move without bribes to Tehran, massive discounts or outright halts. Worse, this isn’t a temporary disruption: It’s the new normal until someone blinks or the conflict dramatically escalates to de-escalate. With Hormuz still largely blocked, every barrel that makes it out is a reminder of just how thin the ice under the global oil complex really is.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 10:10

DOJ, CTFC Investigating $2.6 Billion In Suspicious Iran War Oil Trades

DOJ, CTFC Investigating $2.6 Billion In Suspicious Iran War Oil Trades

U.S. authorities are investigating more than $2.6 billion in oil futures shorts that landed within minutes of major announcements tied to the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has joined the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a widening inquiry into potential misuse of material non-public information in one of the most liquid and geopolitically sensitive commodity markets on earth, ABC News reports.

The trades in question involved bets that oil prices would fall shortly before major U.S. or Iranian announcements tied to the Iran war. .

The Trades

Data sourced from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) - which captures exchange-traded futures flow but strips identities - reveals four distinct clusters of aggressive shorting in WTI and Brent crude futures:

  • March 23: >$500 million in shorts executed in a one-minute burst roughly 15 minutes before President Trump announced a five-day delay on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure. Oil prices subsequently plunged ~15%.
  • April 7: ~$960 million short position placed hours before the temporary ceasefire announcement (oil dropped sharply on the news).
  • April 17: $760 million short bet executed ~20 minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic.
  • April 21: $430 million additional short layer placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire.

Total exposure: >$2.65 billion in directional bets that oil's geopolitical risk premium was about to collapse. These were institutional-sized clips that moved the tape.

The CTFC began investigating suspicious oil trades last month, which has now expanded under DOJ scrutiny. 

Oil futures (CL on CME/NYMEX and Brent on ICE) price in both physical supply/demand and a geopolitical risk premium. When headlines shift from "imminent strikes" or "Hormuz closure" to "ceasefire" or "shipping lanes open," that premium evaporates in minutes. A well-timed short captures the entire move plus any subsequent contango/backwardation shift.

These are classic event-driven alpha trades - except the "alpha" here appears to have arrived with near-perfect foresight. In futures markets, unlike equities, there is no uptick rule and leverage is extreme (often 10-20x on margin). A few basis points of edge on a $2.6 billion book compounds into a staggering P&L for the desk or fund that executed it.

Regulatory Escalation

The CFTC has primary jurisdiction over commodity futures manipulation and insider trading under the Commodity Exchange Act. Its enforcement division can subpoena "Tag 50" firm identifiers from exchanges and pursue civil penalties, disgorgement, and trading bans. The DOJ's involvement signals potential criminal exposure - wire fraud, securities/commodities fraud, or conspiracy charges - which carries prison time.

Congressional Democrats moved quickly:

  • Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse formally requested a CFTC investigation on April 9–10, citing a "recurring pattern" of trades anticipating Trump administration decisions.
  • Rep. Sam Liccardo wrote to both the SEC and CFTC on April 17, explicitly referencing possible violations of the STOCK Act (which already prohibits federal officials from trading on non-public info in futures markets).
  • Rep. Ritchie Torres later pushed to expand the probe to the April 17 Hormuz trade.

The White House itself issued an internal memo on March 24 warning staff against using confidential information for futures or prediction-market bets - a tacit admission that the temptation was real.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has been unambiguous: "We will find you, and you will face the full force of the law."

Unanswered Questions
  • Who were the counterparties? LSEG data does not name them. CFTC/DOJ subpoenas to CME and ICE will. Expect hedge funds, prop shops, or family offices with deep political or intelligence ties to surface - or perhaps entities with access to real-time diplomatic cables.
  • Was this pure MNPI or sophisticated OSINT + positioning? The minute-level clustering before public posts makes the former more plausible.
  • What about prediction markets? Polymarket and similar platforms have faced parallel scrutiny. Bills introduced in late March aim to ban or restrict federal officials and Congress from trading event contracts.
  • Precedent and spillover? Energy desks, shipping companies (tankers through Hormuz), and even defense contractors with Iran exposure are now on notice. Any large, well-timed position in CL, Brent, or related equities (XOM, CVX, tanker stocks) will face heightened post-trade analysis.

Of course, traders of size can now assume every major geopolitical headline now carries a compliance overlay. Position sizing on event risk just became more expensive thanks to regulatory tail risk. For funds with political connections or Washington presence: the bar for "plausible deniability" has been raised dramatically.

The CFTC and DOJ have requested and are receiving detailed trading data and order book records from CME and ICE, so the next 30–60 days should be interesting. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 09:55

DOJ, CTFC Investigating $2.6 Billion In Suspicious Iran War Oil Trades

DOJ, CTFC Investigating $2.6 Billion In Suspicious Iran War Oil Trades

U.S. authorities are investigating more than $2.6 billion in oil futures shorts that landed within minutes of major announcements tied to the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has joined the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a widening inquiry into potential misuse of material non-public information in one of the most liquid and geopolitically sensitive commodity markets on earth, ABC News reports.

The trades in question involved bets that oil prices would fall shortly before major U.S. or Iranian announcements tied to the Iran war. .

The Trades

Data sourced from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) - which captures exchange-traded futures flow but strips identities - reveals four distinct clusters of aggressive shorting in WTI and Brent crude futures:

  • March 23: >$500 million in shorts executed in a one-minute burst roughly 15 minutes before President Trump announced a five-day delay on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure. Oil prices subsequently plunged ~15%.
  • April 7: ~$960 million short position placed hours before the temporary ceasefire announcement (oil dropped sharply on the news).
  • April 17: $760 million short bet executed ~20 minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic.
  • April 21: $430 million additional short layer placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire.

Total exposure: >$2.65 billion in directional bets that oil's geopolitical risk premium was about to collapse. These were institutional-sized clips that moved the tape.

The CTFC began investigating suspicious oil trades last month, which has now expanded under DOJ scrutiny. 

Oil futures (CL on CME/NYMEX and Brent on ICE) price in both physical supply/demand and a geopolitical risk premium. When headlines shift from "imminent strikes" or "Hormuz closure" to "ceasefire" or "shipping lanes open," that premium evaporates in minutes. A well-timed short captures the entire move plus any subsequent contango/backwardation shift.

These are classic event-driven alpha trades - except the "alpha" here appears to have arrived with near-perfect foresight. In futures markets, unlike equities, there is no uptick rule and leverage is extreme (often 10-20x on margin). A few basis points of edge on a $2.6 billion book compounds into a staggering P&L for the desk or fund that executed it.

Regulatory Escalation

The CFTC has primary jurisdiction over commodity futures manipulation and insider trading under the Commodity Exchange Act. Its enforcement division can subpoena "Tag 50" firm identifiers from exchanges and pursue civil penalties, disgorgement, and trading bans. The DOJ's involvement signals potential criminal exposure - wire fraud, securities/commodities fraud, or conspiracy charges - which carries prison time.

Congressional Democrats moved quickly:

  • Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse formally requested a CFTC investigation on April 9–10, citing a "recurring pattern" of trades anticipating Trump administration decisions.
  • Rep. Sam Liccardo wrote to both the SEC and CFTC on April 17, explicitly referencing possible violations of the STOCK Act (which already prohibits federal officials from trading on non-public info in futures markets).
  • Rep. Ritchie Torres later pushed to expand the probe to the April 17 Hormuz trade.

The White House itself issued an internal memo on March 24 warning staff against using confidential information for futures or prediction-market bets - a tacit admission that the temptation was real.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has been unambiguous: "We will find you, and you will face the full force of the law."

Unanswered Questions
  • Who were the counterparties? LSEG data does not name them. CFTC/DOJ subpoenas to CME and ICE will. Expect hedge funds, prop shops, or family offices with deep political or intelligence ties to surface - or perhaps entities with access to real-time diplomatic cables.
  • Was this pure MNPI or sophisticated OSINT + positioning? The minute-level clustering before public posts makes the former more plausible.
  • What about prediction markets? Polymarket and similar platforms have faced parallel scrutiny. Bills introduced in late March aim to ban or restrict federal officials and Congress from trading event contracts.
  • Precedent and spillover? Energy desks, shipping companies (tankers through Hormuz), and even defense contractors with Iran exposure are now on notice. Any large, well-timed position in CL, Brent, or related equities (XOM, CVX, tanker stocks) will face heightened post-trade analysis.

Of course, traders of size can now assume every major geopolitical headline now carries a compliance overlay. Position sizing on event risk just became more expensive thanks to regulatory tail risk. For funds with political connections or Washington presence: the bar for "plausible deniability" has been raised dramatically.

The CFTC and DOJ have requested and are receiving detailed trading data and order book records from CME and ICE, so the next 30–60 days should be interesting. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 09:55

Goldman Cuts ARM To Sell On Shocking Smartphone Weakness

Goldman Cuts ARM To Sell On Shocking Smartphone Weakness

Arm Holdings ADRs sank nearly 9% in premarket trading, on track for the largest intraday decline in almost a year, after the chip-architecture company reported softer-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter royalty revenue tied to a slowdown in the smartphone industry, while assuring investors that data center demand can offset the slump.

During an earnings call, Wells Fargo analyst Joe Quatrochi asked Arm CEO Rene Haas:

"Clearly, data centers are very strong and accelerating, but then how do you think about consumer electronics, smartphones, et cetera?"

Haas responded:

So in terms of Q4, as we said before the quarter, we had a bit of a tough comp in that. We had a particularly strong ramp of maybe 400 [ph], a year ago, more so than what we expected this year.

As a result, you saw a bit of a slowdown in royalty revenue. As indicated by our guidance, we're expecting that to get back to the kind of 20% range by Q1.

So I would say within -- you know, the assumptions within our expectations are, we will probably continue to see unit growth, I think actually flip to negative for the mobile market in this last quarter. We're going to continue to see very flattish, maybe slightly negative numbers for the overall market.

Haas' comments about the smartphone slowdown are key because Arm's smartphone exposure remains large, and mobile application processors accounted for about 46% of its total royalty revenue in 2025.

Haas has made clear to analysts that the push into data centers and other markets will help offset Arm's high exposure to a softening smartphone market.

Royalties, a closely watched metric for Arm, generated $671 million in fourth-quarter revenue, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $693.3 million.

"We're seeing the acceleration of Arm being a significant player in the data center," Haas said in an interview, quoted by Bloomberg.

As for the rest of fourth-quarter earnings, Arm beat on total revenue, adjusted EPS, operating income, margins, and licensing revenue. Revenue rose 20% year over year to $1.49 billion, slightly ahead of estimates, while adjusted EPS of 60 cents beat the 58-cent estimate. Adjusted operating income also beat at $731 million, with a very strong operating margin of 49.1%.

The strongest part of the report was license and other revenue, which jumped 29% year over year to $819 million, well above estimates of $775.6 million. That suggests strong customer demand for future Arm designs, particularly in AI, data centers, and new chip programs.

But as we noted above, royalty revenue missed expectations ...

Here's a snapshot of the fourth quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS 60c vs. 55c y/y, estimate 58c

EPS 29c

Total revenue $1.49 billion, +20% y/y, estimate $1.47 billion

  • License and other revenue $819 million, +29% y/y, estimate $775.6 million

  • Royalty revenue $671 million, +11% y/y, estimate $693.3 million

Annualized contract value $1.66 billion, estimate $1.58 billion

Adjusted net income $641 million, estimate $624.3 million

Adjusted gross profit $1.47 billion

  • Adjusted gross margin 98.3%, estimate 98.1%

Adjusted operating expenses $734 million, estimate $743.6 million

Adjusted operating income $731 million, estimate $696.4 million

  • Adjusted operating margin 49.1%

Adjusted free cash flow $152 million, estimate $374 million

Arm’s first-quarter forecast is broadly in line on revenue, better on earnings, and better on costs (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Sees revenue $1.21 billion to $1.31 billion, estimate $1.25 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees adjusted EPS 36c to 44c, estimate 37c

Sees adjusted operating expenses about $760 million, estimate $803.1 million

In markets, Arm ADRs sank nearly 9%, the largest intraday decline since July 31, 2025, of -13.5%. On the year, shares are up 117%.

Goldman analyst James Schneider told clients following earnings, "We expect the stock to be range-bound following revenue and EPS guidance that was just above the Street, with an increase to demand expectations for the company's CPU business."

"We are Sell rated on ARM given our concerns around the near-term pressures in the royalty business, the lack of clear competitive advantage relative to peers in chip manufacturing, and elevated valuation relative to peers - but could be more constructive if we see greater evidence of an acceleration in royalty growth or more visibility into greater scale in chip manufacturing," Schneider added.

Additional analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kunjan Sobhani

  • "Arm's fiscal 4Q results reflect a mixed near-term setup, with handset and memory-related weakness weighing on royalties, but partly offset by persistent AI strength."

Daiwa analyst Louis Miscioscia

  • Arm's royalty revenue missed due to a shortfall in lower-end cell phone demand, which was weaker than expected due to the higher cost of memory.

Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis (outperform, price target $326)

  • Lipacis was more bullish, saying that after examining other trillion dollar market cap companies, believe "ARM has the similar necessary ingredients to cross that $1T threshold themselves"

Bloomberg data shows most of Wall Street is bullishing on ARM... Goldman and AlphaValue are the only with "Sell" ratings ... 

Professional subscribers can read the full GS Earnings ARM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 09:20

Over 80% Of Young Adults Believe Economy Is 'Bad/Terrible' And We're Seeing The Consequences All Over America

Over 80% Of Young Adults Believe Economy Is 'Bad/Terrible' And We're Seeing The Consequences All Over America

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Decades of economic decline have brought this country to a breaking point. The vast majority of the population is barely scraping by from month to month as prices continue to rise, thousands of stores and restaurants close, foreclosures spike to alarming levels and the middle class continues to shrink. Now the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to make things a whole lot worse, and a lot of people are justifiably concerned about what this will mean for their futures.

Our young adults are being hit particularly hard. If you purchased a home 20 or 30 years ago, you are insulated from what is really going on out there. Housing costs are more unaffordable than ever, and many young people have completely given up on the dream of homeownership. Meanwhile, the employment market has gotten very tight, and this is especially true for entry-level jobs.

Do you know anyone under the age of 40 that is doing really well in this economy?

Yes, there are some exceptions, but in general our young adults are really struggling.

As a result, homelessness is at record levels and hordes of drug addicts are roaming the streets of our major cities.

If you doubt this, just check out this video that shows what has happened to the once great city of Los Angeles.

It was once a playground for the rich and famous, but now it has been transformed into a rotting, decaying hellhole.

It is undeniable that most of our young adults hate this economy.

In fact, a new survey that was just released found that a whopping 84 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 believe that economic conditions in the U.S. are either “bad” or “terrible”

A recent survey by Generation Lab found that more than 8 in 10 young adults rate economic conditions in the U.S. as either bad or terrible.

The survey, conducted April 26-29, found that 55 percent of 546 respondents ages 18-24 said they view the economy as bad, while 29 percent said it was terrible.

The same survey discovered that 81 percent of Americans between the ages of 25 and 29 believe that economic conditions in the U.S. are either “bad” or “terrible”

As for those in the 25-29 age range, 52 percent of 266 such respondents said the economy was bad. About 3 in 10 respondents said it was terrible, for a combined percentage of 81 percent that view the economy negatively.

This is what a long-term economic collapse looks like.

Many people have had their heads in the sand for years, but meanwhile economic conditions have continued to deteriorate all around us.

A different survey that polled American adults of all ages found that 78 percent of us do not feel financially secure at this stage…

A new Intuit Credit Karma/Harris Poll study found that 78% of Americans don’t feel financially secure, even if they’ve been saving and playing by the rules.

Moreover, nearly 3 in 4 Americans (72%) shared that their current financial standing makes them feel like they will never have enough money to achieve the American dream.

Let’s get real.

These numbers didn’t suddenly appear in a vacuum.

The truth is that our standard of living has been declining for a very long time.

I am about to share something with you that is absolutely shocking.

One man recently shared his paystub that shows what he brings home every two weeks.

After taxes, healthcare and child support, his net pay after working 85 hours is just $163.02

How is he supposed to live on that?

I am so frustrated with those that think that everything is going to be just fine.

The number of foreclosure filings in the U.S. skyrocketed in 2025, and in the first quarter of this year they were 26 percent above last year’s blistering pace…

The Wall Street Journal reported that data from Attom shows the number of U.S. properties with a foreclosure filing has trended up to nearly 119,000 in the first quarter, an increase of 26% from the same period last year.

That figure is the highest since the first quarter of 2020, when mortgage relief measures implemented to mitigate the economic impact of COVID shutdowns led to a steep decline in foreclosures.

Unfortunately, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is making things even worse.

The average price of a gallon of gasoline in California is now up to $6.114

California gas prices have climbed to eye-watering levels, with one rural county emerging as one of the most expensive fuel markets in the United States.

Mono County, a remote area in eastern California just east of Yosemite National Park, is seeing average prices close to seven dollars per gallon, according to AAA data. That compares with a statewide average of $6.114 per gallon and a national average of $4.457.

As I discussed yesterday, some residents of Los Angeles are now paying more than 8 dollars a gallon.

Higher gasoline prices will mean that Americans have even less discretionary income to play around with.

Some restaurant chains are already feeling this

Wingstop, a chicken-wing chain that touts its affordability, said that higher fuel prices contributed to an 8.7% decline in quarterly same-store sales.

The chain’s CEO, Michael Skipworth, said Wednesday on a call with investors that it was “extremely difficult for anyone to predict this macro environment,” adding that he expects shrinking sales over this year in part because of expectations that gas prices will remain high.

This is not something that may or may not happen someday.

This is happening right now, and we are witnessing the consequences all over America.

In Los Angeles, rampant social decay has become a way of life

Reality star-turned-Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt shared a devastating must-see campaign advertisement on X, showing how dire the situation is in LA under Democrat leadership.

The somber video, titled “City of Angels, Fallen – Part 1,” uses a rapid montage of raw street footage, news clips, and on-screen text to show just how far Los Angeles has declined under Karen Bass and Democrats, noting, “business as usual is a death sentence.”

Included in the video are stark images of homeless camps, a person lying unconscious or asleep on a dirty sidewalk next to trash bags, a sandwich on a plate, scattered belongings, and individuals who appear to be in the throes of drug abuse.

How could we have allowed this to happen?

According to Pratt, there are 70,000 drug addicts that are roaming the streets…

Speaking on fire recovery, Pratt notes, “The city failed everyone. The insurance companies failed everyone.”

He continues, “Mothers who want to go to the park but don’t want to inhale fentanyl from the 70,000 drug addicts that the Mayor currently let’s live on our streets.”

Of course this isn’t just happening in Los Angeles.

In Seattle, street violence has become so common outside of one McDonald’s restaurant that it has become known as “McStabby’s”

Two thugs were caught on video viciously beating an elderly man outside of ‘America’s scariest McDonald’s.’

The Seattle restaurant is so dangerous it is nicknamed ‘McStabby’s’, and bans customers from going inside due to constant mayhem.

In the latest chaotic scene, two men were seen standing on the street outside the eatery around 10pm on April 19 when a frail 77-year-old man walked towards them.

The two men then approached the victim before one struck him in the head.

Needless to say, it isn’t just old men that are being viciously attacked for no reason.

One very unfortunate 33-year-old man is on the verge of death after being hit in the head with a hammer more than a dozen times

A 33-year-old Seattle man is fighting for his life after his mother says a stranger repeatedly hit him in the head with a hammer in an unprovoked assault.

Lisa Driscoll is calling for justice after her son, 33-year-old George Miller, was beaten repeatedly with a hammer just after midnight Monday outside the Renaissance Hotel. She says a stranger hit him in the head more than a dozen times.

“It was an evil, brutal, unprovoked, horrific attack,” Driscoll said. “Someone who was reported to appear to be hunting to attack someone crossed over, took a hammer out of their backpack and started beating him over the head repeatedly.”

Whether we like it or not, this is our country now.

We have raised an entire generation of young people that is simply not equipped to deal with very harsh economic conditions.

Sadly, economic conditions are only going to get harsher.

It is time to wake up, because a nightmare scenario really is upon us.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 09:00

Jobless Claims & JOLTs Confirm 'Higher Hire, No Fire' Economy

Jobless Claims & JOLTs Confirm 'Higher Hire, No Fire' Economy

With JOLTs data showing record hiring (and ADP signaling acceleration in job additions), today we get some signal on firings as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time was at 200k last week (below the 205k exp) and continuing to languish near multi-decade lows (near 1967 lows!!)...

Source: Bloomberg

Non-seasonally adjusted across all the states saw a 299k drop in claims led by Rhode Island and Arizona (California and Michigan saw the biggest increases)...

Continuing jobless claims also fell, now at 1.766 million Americans receiving unemployment benefits (better than the expected 1.8 million expected) and at its lowest since Jan 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that Challenger, Gray, & Christmas pointed out that in April, Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts for the second month in a row, with 21,490 announced during the month, 26% of total cuts. This reason has been cited for 49,135 cuts this year, and it is the third-leading cause of layoff plans.

AI accounts for roughly 16% of all 2026 job cut plans, up from 13% through March.

“Technology companies continue to announce large-scale cuts and are leading all industries in layoff announcements,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer.

“Regardless of whether individual jobs are being replaced by AI, the money for those roles is.”

Overall, Challenger, Gray, & Christmas says U.S.-based employers announced 83,387 job cuts in April, down 21% from the 105,441 cuts announced during the same month last year.

Another alternative labor market data source, Revelio Labs, shows a sizable rise in jobs this month - best since March 2025 (all adding up to a solid print for tomorrow)...

Led by a big uptick in Services jobs...

Taking all of that into account, it appears we have morphed into a 'higher hire, no fire' economy (but tomorrow's payrolls print could throw shade on that idea).

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 08:35

Whirlpool Crashes After Iran Shock Sparks "Recession-Level" Appliance Slump

Whirlpool Crashes After Iran Shock Sparks "Recession-Level" Appliance Slump

Whirlpool shares crashed as much as 20% in premarket trading after the appliance maker slashed its full-year outlook and posted weaker-than-expected first-quarter results. Management directly blamed the three-month war in the Middle East for triggering a collapse in U.S. appliance demand.

Whirlpool began the earnings release with this statement: "War in Iran resulted in a recession-level industry decline in the U.S. as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March."

For the first quarter, the maker of refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, ovens, ranges, cooktops, microwaves, and range hoods missed Bloomberg Consensus estimates across key metrics, underscoring a sharp deterioration in demand and profitability.

Net sales in the quarter came in at $3.27 billion, below the $3.42 billion estimate. North America sales were soft at $2.24 billion, missing expectations of $2.4 billion, while Latin America sales were weak at $774 million, missing estimates of $785.5 million.

The company posted an ongoing loss of 56 cents per share, compared with earnings per share of $1.70 a year earlier. This result was far below analyst expectations of a loss of 36 cents per share.

EBIT, or earnings before interest and taxes, plunged 79% year over year to $44 million, missing the $110.8 million consensus estimate.

Snapshot of 1Q Earnings (courtsey of BBG):

Net sales $3.27 billion, estimate $3.42 billion

  • MDA North Amer. Net Sales $2.24 billion, estimate $2.4 billion
  • MDA Latin America Net Sales $774.0 million, estimate $785.5 million

Ongoing loss/share 56c vs. EPS $1.70 y/y, estimate EPS 36c

Ongoing EBIT $44 million, -79% y/y, estimate $110.8 million

Snapshot of 2026 forecast (courtsey of BBG):

Sees revenue $15.0 billion, saw $15.3 billion to $15.6 billion, estimate $15.21 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees ongoing EPS $3.00 to $3.50, saw about $7, estimate $4.84

Sees cash from operating activities about $700 million, saw about $850 million, estimate $763.9 million

Still sees adjusted tax rate about 25%

Shares crashed as much as 20% in premarket trading after first-quarter sales showed weaker demand, mounting margin pressure, and a decline in North American appliance demand. If these losses persist through the cash session, it would be the steepest intraday decline since the October 19, 1987, crash of 21%.

Year to date, shares are already down 24% as of Wednesday's close. The stock is now trading at 2011 levels.

Is management conveniently blaming the U.S.-Iran war? The largest trend impacting home appliance sales has been a frozen housing market over the past several years.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 07:45

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