Rising Jet Fuel And Ticket Prices Could Disrupt Summer Air Travel

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Summer travel could be disrupted for millions of airline passengers as airlines pass on higher jet fuel prices onto air fares and cancel unprofitable routes, according to the global association Airports Council International.

The surge in jet fuel prices as a result of the Middle East crisis leads to higher air fares. Passengers should be prepared for higher ticket prices for longer, Stefano Baronci, the Airports Council International’s director general of Asia Pacific and Middle East, told Bloomberg in an interview published on Wednesday.  

Supplies of the fuel from the Middle East cannot move past the Strait of Hormuz, while Asian refiners slashed exports amid reduced run rates and preference and/or orders to keep more supply for their respective domestic markets.

So, the recent crash in global exports of jet fuel – which is the most stressed barrel during the ongoing supply shock – was not unexpected. 

Jet fuel supplies from Northeast Asia and India West Coast crashed and tightened the global jet fuel market so much that officials and airline executives started talking about fuel shortages in a few weeks’ time.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned in mid-April that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supply.

But the Airports Council International’s Baronci dismissed concerns about shortages, noting that the high prices remain the key problem for the industry going forward. With higher air fares, demand destruction is inevitable and airlines could opt to slash more routes this summer, he added. 

Earlier this month, Lufthansa Group, Europe’s biggest airline, said it expects the surge in jet fuel prices to cost it an additional $2 billion this year as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “is leading to a shortage in kerosene supply and thus to a significant increase in kerosene prices.” 

The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have severely constrained Europe’s jet fuel supply, while jet fuel prices spiked to over $200 per barrel in April before easing to about $150 a barrel this month, which is still way above pre-war levels. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 19:15

24/7 Live Feed: Watch Humanoids Work On Factory Floor

We have spent several quarters building the case for readers that humanoid robotics is approaching an inflection point, transitioning from years of training videos and promotional stunt videos to real-world factory-floor deployment.

Multiple leading research desks we have cited expect global shipments of humanoid robots to begin ramping later this year and the years ahead, suggesting the job-displacement wave now hitting white-collar workers through AI chatbots could soon extend to blue-collar labor across warehouses, manufacturing lines, and beyond.

Let's revisit an early February note from UBS analysts led by Phyllis Wang, who forecast that shipments of humanoid robots would begin ramping this year before accelerating sharply in the years ahead. Wang outlined several scenarios, all pointing in the same direction: up and to the right.

Let's fast-forward to Wednesday, when U.S.-based robotics company Figure AI launched a live feed on X and YouTube of its robots "running a full 8-hour shift at human performance levels."

Last week, Figure CEO Brett Adcock told Sourcery's Molly O'Shea about a "near-term" push to bring humanoid robots into homes, where they would perform basic household tasks under a consumer subscription model that could cost "hundreds per month," similar to a car lease.

Adcock said the robots could "cost something like $600 a month" for consumers...

.@adcock_brett says in the "near term" @Figure_robot will sell humanoid robots for the home for ~$600/month:

"You can plug it in a wall outlet, it'll go to its dock and charge."

"I want it to do the laundry every day, dishes every day, and tidy the house multiple times a day." https://t.co/z1GlCILVW9 pic.twitter.com/n8lFocjUy1

— sourcery (@sourceryy) May 5, 2026

Figure's most recent funding round was in September, when it raised more than $1 billion in Series C financing at a $39 billion valuation.

The increased visibility around Figure, whether through the CEO on a podcast or the startup's new live feed showing robots operating on a factory floor, raises an obvious question: Is the manufactured hype being deliberately amplified ahead of a potential fundraising push?

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 18:50

Chaos Unleashed: When "Irrational" Makes Perfect Sense

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Once fairness and honesty have been stripped out of a social order, social trust collapses. Once trust collapses, society disintegrates.

It's important to understand the dynamics of chaos before the certainties in our lives are swept away.

Over the past few months, I've been exploring the dynamics of delusion and breakdown:

1. our reliance on models to make sense of the world and what happens when those models no longer track reality;

2. the difficulties in adapting when our old model breaks down;

3. our growing reliance on complex systems and AI;

4. our frustration with broken systems that are impervious to reform;

5. how the status quo makes a show of reforming broken systems, substituting theatrics for substance;

6. the destabilizing consequences of extremely asymmetric distributions of wealth, power and income;

7. the erosion of our standard of living and quality of life as "progress" is replaced by Anti-Progress and an Ultra-Processed Life of transactions and synthetic facsimiles of authenticity;

8. how these forces have shaped two "fork in the road" narratives:

A. boundless prosperity for all generated by AI and technology

B. the breakdown of an imbalanced, inherently destabilizing socio-economic-political system of the powerful and the powerless defined by moral decay, the collapse of trust in institutions, widening extremes of inequality and the substitution of artifice for authenticity, a.k.a. everything is fake, to maintain the illusion that all is well.

These ideas inform my recent work:

One of Us Is Delusional, But Which One?

When Predictability Collapses, What's Scarce and Valuable Is Adaptability

AI, Money, Human Nature and the Problem with Problems

Why We're Helpless When Things Break Down

The Fork in the Road Ahead

Recession and Revolution: Our Experience Isn't a Model or System

What Would Be Truly Bullish? Actually Fixing What's Broken

There are two underlying material-world dynamics that tie all these themes together:

1. Growth / Progress--defined as higher energy consumption per capita that results in increased purchasing power of wages--is no longer robust enough to raise all boats. This reality is reflected in the declining purchasing power of wages, which is typically labeled "a rise in the cost of living" / inflation.

2. At the same time, the top 10% ownership / professional / managerial elite is taking a larger share of the pie due to a number of factors, including regulatory capture, political changes in tax laws that favor asset-owners, etc., and the explicit but unstated policy decision to give the stagnating economy the appearance of "growth" by inflating credit-asset bubbles that enrich those who already own assets at the expense of those who don't own enough to matter.

These boil down to the distribution of "pain" and "gain": who gets the pain and who gets the gain, and whether the pain and the gain are distributed across all socio-economic classes or are they asymmetrically distributed.

The "pain" of declining purchasing power of wages, living standards and quality of life (for example, health, financial security. etc.) is being distributed to the bottom 80% while the "gains" are distributed to the top 10% owners of capital. (A tiny percentage of the gains trickles down to the cohort between 80% and 90% who own enough capital to maintain a "middle class" lifestyle.)

As I have noted many times, humans are hardwired to be innately attentive to the three dynamics that give humanity's social skills such immense adaptive power:

1. fairness / unfairness (justice, injustice)
2. truth / honesty / authenticity
3. trust (but verify)

Once fairness and honesty have been stripped out of a social order, social trust collapses. Once trust collapses, society disintegrates.

I consider it self-evident that extreme asymmetries of distributing pain and gain cannot be justified as "fair" nor are they perceived to be "fair" by those absorbing the pain.

I also consider it self-evident that truth / honesty / authenticity have been replaced by theater, staged performances and the self-serving artifices of making a show of reforming broken systems.

That social trust is in steep decline cannot be plausibly denied.

This raises the question: how does this disintegration manifest?

Tim Morgan of Surplus Energy Economics (highly recommended reading) has provided an insightful context for understanding how social-economic-political disintegration follows a profoundly human and inherently "irrational" emotional progression.

As he explains, in our technocratic system, causal chains are invariably presented as mechanistic: technology changes this, monetary policy changes that, and so on. We understand "how things work" as linear, reductionist, left-hemisphere mechanical processes of inputs, processes and outputs.

But humans are not machines, and society is not a mechanism comprised solely of institutions and technocratic / financial processes.

Morgan offers the missing half of disintegrative dynamics: the emotional progression of grief famously described by Dr. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross in her 1969 book On Death and Dying, a process that in one way or another works through five emotional states: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance.

Morgan posits that we are collectively grieving the loss of growth without being fully aware that we're experiencing this dynamic because we're in the denial stage.

#323: They First Make Mad: Stress and Grief at the End of Growth (Tim Morgan of Surplus Energy Economics)

Kubler-Ross describes a system that is not linearly mechanical; it's a progression that often veers into emotional states that can be described as "irrational" even as they are completely rational to those experiencing them.

This is a system of emotional processes and truths that can't be understood with the conventional tools of systems dynamics or the social sciences, for the "irrationality" of each state is intrinsic to the progression.

Humans are not mechanisms, and neither is this emotional system. What appears "irrational" is not irrational; it's the way this system works to reconcile our inner life with existential life-changing events.

The status quo's survival strategy is to claim that the Anti-Progress of systemic decline in the standard of living / quality of life experienced by the bottom 80% is still "growth" and "Progress," but this model is veering so far from lived experience that it's increasingly delusional for those not being enriched by bubbles in stocks and housing.

Since we resist losing what we value and are accustomed to--a positive social identity, livelihood, security--the bottom 80% are experiencing the uneasy limbo that precedes a profound phase change that cannot be reversed.

In this temporary state of instability, they're clinging to denial that the era of "growth / Progress" that actually improved their living standards and quality of life has ended, even as the tightening vise of decline increasingly stresses their security, social mobility and belief in the model of permanent upward mobility and prosperity.

The pain generated by decline comes in forms that don't lend themselves to measurement: anxiety, precarity, etc., emotions that make denial a form of emotional solution. But this "solution" doesn't resolve the anxiety or precarity; it's only an emotional Band-Aid / coping mechanism.

Our hardwired awareness of unfairness, artifice and the collapse of trust can't be suppressed, and these chip away at denial. Eventually the denial breaks down, much like an avalanche: the scales fall from our eyes and we see everything we've denied as inescapably real.

On the other side of this phase change is anger.

Denial becomes increasingly delusional as declines that would have been shocking in previous eras of prosperity are now accepted with the passive shrug of the powerless. Selling one's blood for extra cash--once the sole domain of destitute junkies needing cash to feed their addiction--is now an accepted middle-class "gig" to earn extra cash to support a lifestyle that is slipping away:

The Middle-Class Suburbanites Who Sell Their Blood Plasma to Get By.

Another hallmark of middle-class security--the IRA/401K retirement fund--is being drained to pay for everyday expenses:

They Withdrew 401(k) Money Early, and They Have Some Regrets.

In an era of declining purchasing power of wages, the money being withdrawn is unlikely to be replaced.

This account by an anthropologist sheds light on the themes I'm describing:

"The America I move through today often feels alien to the one I thought I knew. Those who fall behind are seen not as constrained, but as having failed. The result is a pervasive, if often unspoken, alienation--one that erodes shared bonds and leaves people to navigate inequality on their own.

Most troubling is the way this environment feeds a politics of grievance. Anger and frustration are redirected toward scapegoats rather than toward the structures that concentrate wealth and power. Identity and culture become tools of division rather than sources of connection. In that context, authoritarianism finds its opening--not as a rupture, but as an extension of patterns already in place."

Since humans are social animals, private anger that is shared becomes public anger--a much more powerful, more volatile emergent property of the phase change from denial to anger.

In this context, we can understand the "wealth tax" in California and the tax on second homes worth in excess of $5 million in New York City as precursors of this phase change from denial to anger which fuels the desire to restore some balance by clawing back some of the gains of the super-wealthy.

This is an example of what I call redress in my book Investing In Revolution: the desire to rebalance extremes of inequality to restore some measure of trust in institutions and the system. Redress can also be fulfilled by restoring previously existing limits on concentrations of power that tilted the system to distribute the lion's share of gains to the few at the top.

Examples of the rules being changed to benefit the wealthy include stock buybacks (previously illegal), Citizens United and a long list of other regulatory changes designed to benefit those with the wealth to buy political influence.

If redress is thwarted or watered down to just another virtue-signaling performance of fake reform for show, the alternative manifestation of anger is retribution. When anger slides into rage as redress is thwarted, retribution has the potential to gain an emotional momentum few anticipate.

Absent systemic unfairness, deception and distrust, anger can proceed to bargaining without transitioning into rage: when bad things happen to us while others are unaffected, it feels unfair--but since it isn't intentional--no one sacrificed our interests to serve their own--we eventually find ways to accept that life is inherently unfair.

But when the system is built on unfairness, deception and distrust so the few can benefit at the expense of the many, anger heats up into rage when redress is denied. This rage seeks expression, and if it's shared by others, it quickly spreads into a volatile public movement.

Bargaining, depression, and acceptance are off the table until substantive redress is achieved or the rage burns itself out.

Chaos looks irrational due to its unpredictability and destructive potential. But when viewed as part of a hardwired emotional casual chain triggered by unfairness, deception and distrust, then not only are anger and demands for redress rational, so too is rage unleashing chaos when legitimate demands for redress are denied by those in power.

At this volatile juncture where the emergent properties of public rage take on a life of their own, the importance of shared beliefs and ideals becomes paramount: absent a narrative and model that inspires positive collective actions, the emergent properties of public rage manifest as uncontrollable chaos.

History offers several templates for what happens once the spark of public anger ignites a fast-spreading wildfire of rage and retribution. One is martial law, a military clampdown that erases public expression and replaces democratic institutions with authoritarian rule. This is the root of Napoleon's famous quip about quelling the mob with a "whiff of grapeshot," i.e. blasting the mob with cannons loaded with round bullets.

In other cases, an authoritarian or self-serving, corrupt neofeudal regime attempts to quell the disorder, but the force needed to suppress the public rage is beyond those being tasked to shoot down their family and friends to save the regime from the consequences of its exploitation and lies.

But the consequences of model collapse don't go away with force. All that force accomplishes is the suppression of public anger. What's needed to nurture a society that values, prioritizes and incentivizes fairness, authenticity and trust is a new model that inspires the disenfranchised with a coherent set of values and goals.

Ivan Illich described this in a way we can all understand:

"Neither revolution nor reformation can ultimately change a society, rather you must tell a new powerful tale, one so persuasive that it sweeps away the old myths and becomes the preferred story, one so inclusive that it gathers all the bits of our past and our present into a coherent whole, one that even shines some light into the future so that we can take the next step. If you want to change a society, then you have to tell an alternative story."

Developing this alternative story is the point of my work. The outlines are not complicated:

1. shift the goal from "growth" (The Waste Is Growth, Everything Is Disposable Landfill Economy) to a sustainably rewarding quality of life that isn't measured solely by material consumption but by the "prosperity" of positive social roles, upward mobility (chances to get ahead), agency (control of one's life) and a say in decisions affecting shared interests (for example, the quality of air / water and public institutions).

2. Limit centralization and the consolidation of financial, economic and political power in the hands of the few, who inevitably use this power to serve their interests at the expense of the many.

We can understand this alternative story as a secular Reformation, a necessary response to a incorrigibly corrupt status quo whose foundational story (infinite growth via what Tim Morgan succinctly describes as "infinite monetary stimulus and limitless technological possibility") is unsustainable and therefore delusional.

Absent a coherent, realistic, inspirational alternative story, once chaos is unleashed, there is no pathway to the restoration of fairness, authenticity and trust within a sustainable model that serves everyone's interests.

John Maynard Keynes famously stated that "markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

The same can be said of redress-denied, rage-fueled chaos: it too can remain irrational longer than we can imagine.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 18:25

Democrats Are Not In Good Shape For The Midterms

The conventional wisdom heading into 2026 was simple enough: an unpopular president, a restless electorate, and history's gravitational pull toward the opposition party would deliver the House back to Democrats.

CNN's Harry Enten spent this week throwing cold water on that narrative — and the data he brought to the table should give Democrats serious pause.

Start with the map.

Democrats were counting on Virginia’s new map to give them four more solid seats heading into the midterms, but the Virginia Supreme Court struck it down in a 4-3 ruling, finding that the Democratic-led legislature violated procedural requirements when referring the measure to voters. Democrats quickly appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, but experts largely agree that the high court won’t take the case.

On Monday, Enten called the outcome for what it is. "I think it's fairly safe to say that Republicans will, in fact, win” the redistricting wars, he said. Then came the caveat that only partially softened the blow: "But what exactly does that mean? Does that mean it's a nightmare for Democrats? Well, sort of, but not really." 

The caution is understandable. Redistricting alone was never likely to guarantee Republicans control of the House, but it has made the Democrats’ path back to a majority considerably steeper. Before the current wave of Republican-driven mid-decade redistricting, a simple popular vote win would have been sufficient for Democrats to retake the House. That threshold has now moved. Democrats, having failed in Virginia, needed to offset the net losses in red states that have updated their maps. They haven't. The margin Democrats need in the national popular vote to flip the chamber has climbed to roughly 3 to 4 points — and that's before accounting for any further setbacks.

On Tuesday, Enten pointed out that new polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by just 3 points, which is within the margin of error. "Democrats are up by three points, and I want you to note the yellow lettering," Enten said, walking viewers through the graphic. "No clear leader. It is within the margin of error." Pre-redistricting, Enten said that kind of lead might have been enough to put the gavel back in Democratic hands. "But now, with the redistricting, their ladder, they have to climb ever higher, and a three-point win may very well not do it."

Run the math, and the implications are clear.

 "If this were, in fact, the actual result come election day, the race for Congress, the race for the House, would be basically a toss-up."

And a toss-up is not where the party that spent the past several months banking on Trump's economic unpopularity expected to find itself.

The problem facing Democrats right now is that, across all of the traditional indicators, conditions favor the Democrats, which should suggest a blue wave. But they don’t.

"Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn't make Democrats popular," Enten observed, delivering the line with the understated precision of someone who had been waiting to say it for months.

Perhaps most striking is the erosion of the Democratic generic ballot lead over a matter of weeks. In March, Democrats held a 6-point advantage. It has since compressed to 3. That kind of momentum in the wrong direction — cutting the lead in half during a period when Trump's economic numbers cratered — is not what opposition surges look like. As Politico put it, "Democrats are in arguably on worse footing in their bid to retake the House than they were less than one year ago."

The Democratic Party has a real ceiling problem, and the structural math is now working against it.

"Republicans very much in the race for the House of Representatives," Enten said. "They're in that game."

He closed with the kind of assessment that cuts through spin: "I think this poll serves as a big time reality check for Democrats, and that is, it ain't over yet, especially with the redistricting when we look ahead to the 2026 race for Congress." 

The new CNN poll should serve as a big time reality check for Dems.

Yes, Trump isn't liked on the economy... but neither are the Dems.

Dems' lead on the generic House ballot isn't growing.

With redistricting, the race for House control is well within the margin of error. pic.twitter.com/ewJ6w1W1AT

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) May 12, 2026

With six months to go before the midterms, the map and the polls have gotten worse for Democrats. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 18:00

Where Have The Men Gone?

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Labor keeps careful track of employment and the demographics thereof. Their latest report on men in the labor force is both mysterious and deeply alarming. It turns out that the labor force is missing about 7 million men who would otherwise be working. Close to a third of working-age men have vanished from the labor force.

The labor force participation rate among “prime age men,” age 25 to 54, in the 1950s approached 100 percent. Now it is 89 percent, meaning roughly 11 percent are not in the labor force (neither working nor looking for work).

Among all men over 16 years of age, the rate is a devastatingly low 66 percent, so about one-third are gone. Among U.S.-born men, nearly 22 percent are gone.

This is really quite shocking.

The trend in decline dates far back, accelerated in the 1960s, stabilized in the 1980s, declined again after the turn of the century, and took a deep dive after the pandemic lockdowns and never recovered. It is falling again now, nearly to the lows we saw when the economy was actually locked down.

The explanations for this are all over the map. Disability ranks at the top.

But we aren’t really talking about wooden legs and paraplegics here. This traces to mental disorders, substance abuse, obesity and chronic disease, low motivation, pharmaceutical injury, and general lethargy and demoralization.

How do they pay the bills? The lucky ones have trust fund flows. The conventional ones live with Mom and Dad and take disability benefits. The really unlucky ones are simply homeless.

The number of men who live with parents has tripled since the 1950s when the expectation was that you would be kicked out of the nest at 17 and only return for holidays and special occasions. Otherwise, any self-respecting dude would make a living for himself, find a bride, and set up his own family. The idea of basement dwelling was simply unheard of.

There is overlap here with men falling out of the workforce. Men (especially non-college) living with parents are 20 percent less likely to be in the labor force than those living independently.

We all have stories. In fact, you are thinking of some men you know now and how it happened that they just lost interest in the normal flow of life. Instead, they spend their time with gaming, scrolling, porn, OnlyFans, and some other pointless or destructive pursuit. They rely on substances and drugs to dampen the pain. They have given up.

There is plenty of blame to go around. The full feminization of the workplace is only a few decades old now, with every firm being lorded over by Human Resources, which is dominated by women by 70–80 percent. They serve as a breeder of conflict such that any offense is immediately reported if it usually involves men as the target.

College students have been taught for years that the word toxic and masculinity are inseparable, while the phrase “toxic femininity” does not exist. Indeed, it is commonplace for any competent man in the workforce to be falsely accused of absurdities. No company is willing to risk the litigation costs, and so it throws the guy out even with zero evidence of wrongdoing.

Years ago I heard one guy in an investment bank say that every man in his office regards women as essentially inanimate, like statues with whom never to engage at any level. He added that no responsible man would ever get on an elevator if there is a woman alone in there. Doing so risks your career because you can be accused of anything to your doom.

Is the corporate workplace today hostile to men? To say absolutely is a huge understatement. It should not be shocking to discover that millions of men have simply said they want no part of it.

Oddly, men today can get by on not much money at all. If they are living with family, room and board are free. If you prefer looking like a slob, clothing expenses are nearly zero too. In today’s world, it is possible for a working-age man to manage with only a trickle of government benefits. Without a serious inner drive to achieve something, one year can fold into the next.

As a general principle, a man without a job is only going to get ever sicker. The whole of society suffers their absence.

There are always good excuses. The labor markets are extremely tight right now, especially for men with soft-discipline college degrees who have no marketable skills despite being six figures in debt. Here is a real tragedy. They were told to stay in school and just get that piece of paper. Now the job market is not particularly interesting.

Then you have the cost of housing, which is extremely high. Buying a house is out of the question. Even with simple renting, lease applications are extremely strict now. You have to show stable income flows and have excellent credit. No landlord these days is willing to risk nonpayment given what happened in 2020 when the government imposed an eviction moratorium.

You also have a major problem with what is called the reservation wage. This is the level that one expects to get paid even when market conditions are not cooperating. Sure, some guys can take their lumps and start delivering or driving rideshare. But for many men, taking such a job is an assault on their personal dignity. They won’t do it.

In the end, we really are talking about a volitional choice to drop out.

Talking with others about this, we all know cases in point. They are embarrassed, isolated, and in a spiral of demoralization that is hard to fix.

I was listening to a podcast the other day by an influential guy who said something that really spooked me. I somehow can’t shake his words. He said that realistically there is nothing to do. Nothing. He continued to explain that you can hang out at home and play on the computer or go to a restaurant. After you eat, you can go home again and play on the computer. He said some people recommend travel but he said this is pointless because it is the same whether in Milan or Milwaukee: you sit in your room or go eat. Nothing else.

These are astonishing words to me. For how many others is he speaking? Have we really come to this place as a culture? What would you suggest to this young man? You can of course yell and say: get a life! The trouble is that we have an entire generation or two of men who don’t even understand what that is.

Ideally, if we could go back in time, men would get a serious job like construction at the age of 15 or so. My brother did this and it was astonishing to watch. He would come home at 5 p.m. and fall into bed moaning in pain, rouse himself for dinner, and then collapse again. It was this way for a week until his body and mind adjusted. Wow, did he learn a thing or two.

My case was less rigorous: roof repair, piano moving, organ tuning, well digging, courier services, and finally department store maintenance. I never did the road crew but I did learn the joy of work early.

That doesn’t help the late 20-something who sees no real point to waking up. What to do?

For the past year, I’ve been working on a book that explores an interesting thesis; namely that there is a crying need these days for men to lead a rehomesteading movement, starting right now in one’s apartment or wherever you live.

The book traces the history of domesticity and how tasks have been allocated by gender and how technology and demographics have scrambled these roles in ways to which society has yet to adjust.

Just to cite one obvious point, in the 1950s, 4 out of 5 households with children under 18 had one stream of income provided by the husband/father.

Men knew their roles and responsibilities, long inherited from history when men were in the fields and factories and wives and mothers took care of vast domestic responsibilities.

Today that figure is only two in five. Two-thirds of households with children have two income streams with both parents pursuing some professional life outside the home. This happened due to declining real household income. Mainly it was inflation and not feminist ideology that drafted adult women into remunerative labor outside the home.

The result created a loss of purpose for men, many of whom feel lost and useless. My book provides a practical answer; namely taking on the multitude of tasks in the home that have otherwise been abandoned. The book breaks it all down room by room including detailed explanations of home decor, cleaning, sewing, cooking, and entertaining. The book’s title: “A Man’s Castle.”

Going back to the podcast guy who complains there is nothing to do, my answer would be to look around where you live. The window blinds have a coat of dust and grime on them. Your clothes have holes that could be sewn. The laundry is backed up and stains are everywhere. Make a roast. Look up how. You could have people over and then take responsibility for assuring that everyone has a good time.

Believing that these are not the jobs of men is part of the problem. My solution might sound mundane but at least it begins to address the real issue: the lack of purpose and meaning. Rehomesteading isn’t the whole answer but it is a beginning.

Now that a third of working-age men have slipped into a life of lethargy and nihilism, it’s time to sound the alarm. We have to start fixing this.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 17:40

Japan's Refinery Utilization Hits 73% As Strategic Oil Stocks Flow In

With global refineries working overtime to convert oil into much needed product, Japan's refinery utilization rates also surged in May, as releases from petroleum reserves and increased supply of non-Middle East crude are easing the crude supply crunch seen in March and most of April, OilPrice reported.

For the first time since March, refiners in Japan have boosted their average utilization rate to above 70% in the past two weeks, data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) showed on Wednesday.

Utilization rate of the designed capacity was 73.3% in the week to May 9, following 77.3% utilization rate the week prior to May 2, the data showed. These run rates compare to utilization rates in the 60% range in April, according to the weekly statistics data released by the PAJ.

Resource-poor Japan is one of the biggest energy importers globally and relied on the Middle East for as much as 95% of its oil imports before the war. Most of the oil comes from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Of these Middle Eastern supplies, about 70% typically arrived in Japan on tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.

As the war choked supply from the Middle East, Japan began releasing oil stocks from national reserves at the end of March, as part of the IEA-coordinated record-high release of 400 million barrels of oil and fuel. Japan is releasing a total of 80 million barrels of oil stocks, including 54 million barrels of crude and 26 million barrels of oil products as part of the IEA's 400-million-barrel release.

The ongoing stocks release, which is Japan's biggest, is helping refiners increase throughput. So is alternative supply from producers outside the Middle East, including rare cargoes from Azerbaijan and Latin America.

Some of the largest refiners in Japan, including Cosmo Energy Holdings and Idemitsu Kosan, aim for average utilization rates of more than 90% in the current fiscal year ending March 2027.

Cosmo Energy's outlook for the fiscal year include assumptions that crude oil production in the Middle East would normalize in August, and crude procurement "from September onward."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 17:20

Vaccine Researcher Trying To Debunk Measles-Autism Claims Extradited To US On CDC Fraud Charges

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A researcher who co-authored papers that he and others said undercut claims that measles vaccination causes autism has been extradited to the United States on fraud charges 15 years after he was charged.

Poul Thorsen in an undated file image (L), and being extradited to the United States on May 7, 2026. HHS OIG via The Epoch Times

Poul Thorsen, 65, a Danish national, was transported from Germany to the United States on May 7 and arraigned on charges of federal wire fraud and money laundering, according to court filings and U.S. prosecutors.

A judge ordered Thorsen held without bail after he pleaded not guilty in a federal courtroom in Atlanta.

Thorsen is accused of stealing more than $1 million in grant money from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Thorsen was working as a visiting scientist at the CDC in the 1990s when he convinced officials to award a grant to Denmark. The CDC awarded more than $11 million to Danish government agencies from 2000 to 2009 to study any relationship between autism and vaccines, among other matters. In 2002, Thorsen moved to Denmark and became the grant’s principal investigator—the person in charge of administering the money the CDC was providing for research.

Thorsen allegedly went on to submit papers that listed fake expenses, according to charging documents. The papers resulted in Aarhus University transferring money to accounts that officials believed belonged to the CDC, but were actually Thorsen’s personal accounts.

Thorsen is accused of using the money to buy, among other purchases, a home in Atlanta and a Harley-Davidson motorcycle.

“Poul Thorsen allegedly stole more than $1 million in federal grant money by submitting fabricated invoices and diverting funds to his personal bank accounts,” U.S. Attorney Theodore Hertzberg said in a statement.

“Thorsen’s extradition reinforces a core principle: individuals who are accused in an indictment of defrauding the American people and misusing federally funded research will be pursued wherever they flee,” added Kelly Blackmon, special agent in charge at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Inspector General.

A lawyer representing Thorsen did not respond to a request for comment by time of publication.

Thorsen was originally charged in 2011. He had remained a fugitive until being arrested in Passau, Germany, on June 4, 2025.

In 2026, German authorities agreed to extradite Thorsen to the United States.

Thorsen has co-authored dozens of papers, including a study that researchers said showed that children who received a measles, mumps, rubella vaccine were less likely to be diagnosed with autism compared to children who did not receive the vaccine.

None of the papers appeared to have any markings noting the charges against him as of May 11.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 17:00

The Liberal Media Is Finally Noticing Democrats Are Willing To Shred The Rule Of Law

Democrats have anointed themselves the defenders of democracy and protectors of the rule of law. For years, the liberal media has been more than willing to help push that narrative. But after the state Supreme Court struck down the Virginia gerrymander, the reaction from Democrats was so extreme that even their usual defenders couldn’t ignore how bad it looked.

On Sunday, the New York Times reported that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Virginia Democrats held a conference call the day after the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that the party had violated the state constitution by passing its gerrymandered map, nullifying the new map before it could be implemented. According to the report, lawmakers spent the call “venting anger at their defeat,” with the atmosphere described as “desperation and fury,” and Democrats floated the idea of lowering the mandatory retirement age of the court so they could replace all the justices and restart the process of passing their gerrymandered map.

Even some of the liberal media’s old guard felt uncomfortable that such an idea was seriously considered, and what that says about the party that claims to be defenders of Democracy and the rule of law. 

That’s the unmistakable takeaway from a revealing exchange between Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd on Monday on Cillizza’s podcast.

Chuck Todd framed the Virginia ruling as the natural consequence of bad politics and worse arrogance. “That’s how I feel about this, this ruling in Virginia, right? This was a bad idea. This was terrible messaging. This was defeat. This sort of undermined every supposed principle that the Democratic Party had been running on for over a decade,” he said.

The deeper problem, as Todd and Cillizza both made clear, is that Democrats did this to themselves. “And, you know, and they didn’t dot their I’s and cross their T’s,” Todd said, acknowledging reports that Democrats in Virginia knew their plan wasn’t constitutional but pressed forward with it anyway.

“The Democratic state legislature told the Virginia State Supreme Court, ‘Do not offer a ruling on this until after the election,’” Cillizza noted. In other words, they knew exactly what they were doing. They were trying to run the clock and hope the courts would stay out of the way until after the votes were cast, and there was nothing that could be done about it.

Todd then referenced the  New York Times report about the plan to lower the retirement age for Supreme Court justices to 54, which he used as another example of Democrats careening away from any serious commitment to institutional norms.

“And you’re sitting there going, ‘Wow.’ And you’re the same party that’s been complaining that Donald Trump doesn’t respect, um, the democracy? Doesn’t respect the will of the voters, doesn’t respect institutions.” 

“How about rule of law?” Cillizza added.

The narrative from Democrats for years has been about protecting democracy, defending norms, and standing up for institutions. But when their own power is on the line, that lofty rhetoric suddenly turns into just another set of talking points. Todd even admitted the entire episode looked insane from the outside. 

The most damning part came when Todd explained what he thinks the Democratic Party is willing to do.

“The left has become… as bad as Trump,” he said.

“I mean, look, go ahead and do it, but don’t be surprised when voters sort of decide, man, you guys are full of shit too. And you guys aren’t serious about the democracy. You just are trying to rig it in your direction.”

Todd also argued that the Democratic Party’s refusal to admit error makes the problem worse.

“The Democratic Party is not going to accept the premise that, ‘You know what? Maybe we were principally wrong about this, and maybe we should have stuck to the high ground,’” he said. Instead, he warned, they want to be “just as radical and just as, uh, anti-democracy as they accuse the other side of being.”

I was amazed/appalled by how quickly Dems screamed "RIGGED" and called for the impeachment/removal of the Virginia state Supreme Court on Friday.

Sounds a lot like the guy they say is a threat to liberal democracy.... pic.twitter.com/Ye8uHAaLav

— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) May 11, 2026

That is the part that should worry Democrats the most.

When even their media allies are describing their behavior as anti-democratic, anti-institutional, and openly cynical, it’s a huge problem for them. The party that spent years sermonizing about norms is now getting caught pushing banana republic tactics and calling it righteousness. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 16:40

Jane Street Slashes Bitcoin ETF Holdings, Adds Ether Funds In Q1 2026

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Wall Street market maker Jane Street reduced its exposure to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first quarter of 2026 while increasing positions in Ether funds.

Jane Street cut major Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q1 2026, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), according to a 13F filing published Tuesday.

IBIT holdings fell about 71% from Q4 2025 to roughly 5.9 million shares valued at about $225 million, while FBTC dropped about 60% to around 2 million shares worth roughly $115 million.

At the same time, Jane Street increased its exposure to Ether (ETH) ETFs, nearly doubling its position in BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and sharply raising its stake in Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH), adding about $82 million combined across the two products over the quarter.

The move comes amid early signs of institutional Ether ETF buying in early 2026, including increased exposure reported at Wells Fargo. The filing points to a reshuffling of Jane Street’s reportable crypto-linked holdings at quarter-end, though 13F disclosures do not show the market maker’s full trading book or net exposure.

Bitcoin exposure weakens further as Strategy stake falls

Jane Street’s Bitcoin-linked exposure weakened further in Q1 2026 as it reduced its stake in Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) alongside major ETF cuts.

In Q4 2025, the firm held about 968,000 MSTR shares worth roughly $145.9 million. By Q1 2026, the common stock stake fell to about 210,000 shares valued at roughly $27 million, a decline of about 78% quarter-over-quarter.

Jane Street increased its Strategy (MSTR) position by 473% in Q4 2025. Source: TheBTCTherapist

Strategy selling followed significant buying in the previous quarter as Jane Street reportedly increased MSTR position by 473% in Q4 2025.

In Q1 2026, the company also trimmed exposure across several Bitcoin mining stocks, including IREN, Cipher Mining, TeraWulf and Core Scientific.

Increased exposure to Coinbase, Galaxy and Riot

Despite broad downside pressure on Bitcoin-related assets, Jane Street increased exposure to several crypto-linked equities over the quarter, suggesting more selective positioning in crypto-related equities rather than a broad exit from the sector.

Jane Street raised its stake in the crypto mining company Riot Platforms (RIOT) to about 7.4 million shares, up from 5 million, increasing its value to roughly $91 million from $63 million.

It also increased its position in Coinbase (COIN) to about 888,000 shares from 778,000, with the value rising to about $155 million from $176 million in the prior quarter.

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) saw the sharpest expansion, jumping to about 1.5 million shares from just around 17,000, lifting its value to roughly $28 million from around $380,000.

Jane Street posted a record $16.1 billion in Q1 trading revenue, according to Reuters, as volatile markets and gains tied to artificial intelligence-related investments boosted financial results.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 15:25

GOP Lawmakers Leery Of Trump's Billion-Dollar Ballroom-Security Package

Wary of the terrible election-year optics, some federal Republican legislators are less-than-enthusiastic about approving a request for a billion dollars in security funding relating to President Trump's White House ballroom project. Some of them shared those feelings with reporters after they received a Tuesday afternoon closed-door briefing by Secret Service Director Sean Curran. 

When he first rolled out the 90,000-square-foot ballroom project, Trump repeatedly emphasized that the project would cost $200 million and be funded entirely with private donations. Now the ballroom itself is projected to cost $400 million -- still privately-funded -- but with another $1 billion in federal funding being poured into security provisions.

An artist's rendering of Trump's ballroom, which is now projected to cost $400 million before $1 billion in security add-ons (via White House)

“I think the timing and the optics are really bad,” North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters Monday. “This time last year, roughly, maybe a little bit before, we were all impressed with the fact that this $400 million building was going to be paid for out of the generosity of donors, and now we’re hearing 2½ times that is necessary for some other aspect of the project.” The ballroom funds are supposed to be part of the ICE and Border Patrol bill that's considered as a GOP must-have. 

In his briefing to legislators, Curran provided an itemization of the big-ticket items comprising that $1 billion request. “He walked through the various categories,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. “So it was a good back-and-forth, a good discussion, and obviously we had a lot of questions that were asked by our colleagues, just to get the details and precision as much as possible about how dollars will be used.”

According to the Washington Post, the categories include: 

• $200 million for "hardening" the party room, from both above and below; finishes include bulletproof glass, and systems to detect chemical weapons and drones
• $180 million for a new White House visitor-screening setup
• $175 million for training Secret Service agents and improving "protectee security"
• $150 million to ward off "emerging threats" to include bioweapons and airborne attacks
• $100 million to secure high-profile national events

Following the briefing, Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, who routinely votes as Trump wishes, was non-committal. “I still got some more questions, and they’re going to send us more information...I'm undecided." Similarly, Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy, said he has "a lot" of questions of his own, adding that "One of the biggest concerns on our side is adding to the deficit." 

TRUMP: "We have a ballroom that's under budget. It's going up right here. I doubled the size of it because we obviously need that."

REPORTER: "The price has doubled..."

TRUMP: "I doubled the size of it, you dumb person. I doubled the size. You are not a smart person." pic.twitter.com/iC03NPPEye

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 12, 2026

Others were more candid. "Not happening here," said Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, when asked if the House was likely to approve the funding. Asked if he'd personally vote for it, he gave reporters a blunt "no." Asked about how the price tag looks to Americans being hammered at the gas pump by the fruits of the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski replied, "Not good." 

The ballroom project increasingly seems like a midyear election gift from a tone-deaf Trump administration to Democratic candidates across the nation. In a recent poll, Americans oppose it by a lopsided 56%-to-28% margin. More than the cost itself, it's the juxtaposition of what looks like a vanity project against increasing financial hardships being imposed on everyday Americans by the war on Iran and Trump's tariffs.  

On Tuesday, Trump handed more such campaign fodder to Democrats when -- asked if Americans' financial woes were a motivator for making a peace deal with Iran -- Trump said, "Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation." Though he was clearly trying to emphasize the (dubious) security narrative behind the war, his failure to express empathy for struggling families turned his remark into a political weapon. 

President Trump is asked how much he considers Americans' financial situation when negotiating with Iran:

"Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters is they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about Americans’ financial situation. I don't think about anybody." pic.twitter.com/BFxqVtZgQr

— The American Conservative (@amconmag) May 12, 2026

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 15:05

Gamma And Momentum: A Recipe For Cheers And Tears

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Intel (INTC) shares have risen 90% over the past month and more than 200% since the start of the year. Its competitors, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron (MU), are posting similar gains. Many other semiconductor stocks, along with some computer hardware companies, are the market’s latest AI darlings. Momentum and gamma are driving the outperformance, and, in their wake, a supportive narrative is trying to justify it.  

The narrative holds that the insatiable infrastructure buildout for AI, including data centers, GPUs/CPUs, networking equipment, and power grids, requires massive capital expenditure from the largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta). The suppliers of these products, including semiconductor and hardware producers, are the most direct beneficiaries.

AI will significantly improve the bottom line for many companies. But investors should be asking whether the stock prices have gotten too far ahead of fundamentals. The answer, in our opinion, is likely yes. As we wrote in Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already:

Here’s the part that should bother bulls the most. SOXX is trading at multiples that already reflect strong 2026 earnings. The current rally has likely already fully priced in 2026 earnings. From here, you are paying for 2027 and 2028 growth in a sector where the cycle has not been repealed. Semiconductors are still cyclical. Always have been. The day the AI capex cycle hiccups, even briefly, is the day this chart breaks.

To fully appreciate the recent astonishing performance, it’s worth looking beyond fundamentals and narratives to better understand how herding, momentum, and option delta and gamma can systematically drive prices higher and eventually lower. 

Momentum Creates Momentum

Financial momentum is the tendency for assets that have been rising to continue rising and those that have been falling to continue falling. Often, during a strong momentum phase, the pace of buying or selling increases, resulting in parabolic price gains, as we are witnessing with Intel and its competitors.

When a stock trends higher, investors increasingly notice the bullish momentum and buy it, which pushes the price higher and attracts even more buyers. This type of herding behavior can create a self-reinforcing cycle- buying begets more buying.

When momentum is strong, the pressure on new investors to join the trade or on existing ones to add to their positions is enormous. As these investors focus on the incredible rewards they might receive, they often lose sight of the trade’s fundamental justification. The result is a crowded trade with sometimes breathtaking gains, but ultimately a sharp reversal that strips profits from most participants. 

Retail and institutional momentum traders often use call options as a leveraged way to participate in price gains without buying the stock outright. Call options provide investors with limited downside risk and the potential for upside gains that can be multiples of the underlying stock’s price. Call buying can become a momentum accelerant, as we explain next.

What Is Delta

To better appreciate how options, particularly calls, can boost stock prices, which in turn adds momentum and fuels the herding behavior of millions of investors, we need to understand some option basics.

We start with delta. Delta measures how much an option’s price changes for every $1 move in the underlying stock. For instance, a call option with a delta of 0.50 will gain roughly $0.50 in value for every $1.00 increase in the stock price. Importantly, delta changes as the stock price moves. As shown in the hypothetical graph below, delta rises as the option approaches its strike price and falls as it moves below it. The non-linear rate at which delta changes is called gamma.

Delta is affected not only by how far the stock price is from the option’s strike price but also by implied volatility and time to expiration. Other smaller factors include put/call skew, dividends, and interest rates.

Gamma

Gamma quantifies the curvature of delta (the green line in the graph above). It is the rate at which an option’s delta changes for every $1 move in the underlying stock. For example, if a call option has a delta of 0.50 and a gamma of 0.05, a $1 rise in the stock pushes the delta to 0.55, and another $1 gain pushes it to 0.60, and so on. Think of it this way: delta tells you how much the option price will move per change in the stock, while gamma tells you how fast that relationship will change.

Gamma is highest for options closest to expiration. Thus, the recent surge in the number of very short-term and same-day expiry options (0dte) is significantly impacting options brokers, as we will explain.

Delta Hedging Can Drive Momentum

When an investor buys a call option, someone must be selling it to them. Most often, market makers and brokers fill that role. Their financial interest in selling options is to make money regardless of what the option price does, not by taking the opposite position of the options buyer. They try to ensure profits by hedging. 

Brokers hedge exposure by buying or selling shares of the underlying stock in proportion to the option’s delta. This process is called delta hedging.

Assume a broker sells an investor a call option with a delta of 0.50. The dealer will buy 50 shares of the stock for each option sold. If the delta suddenly jumps to 0.60, the dealer will buy 10 more shares. If the stock falls and the delta declines, the dealer will sell shares.

In isolation, this is simple hedging management that often has little impact on the markets. But when the options market becomes large enough relative to the stock market, this constant hedging activity itself begins to move prices. As they say, the tail is wagging the dog.

The graph below shows a sharp increase in call option trading over the past few years, resulting in significantly higher hedge-trading volume among option brokers.

Gamma Squeezes

The growing volumes in the options market, along with the popularity of very short-term and even same-day options, are intensifying broker hedge trading. At times, this heightened activity results in what is called a gamma squeeze. This occurs when a surge in call option buying forces hedgers to purchase shares at an accelerating rate, pushing the stock price higher. That higher price, in turn, forces hedgers to buy even more shares, pushing the price higher still. This reflexive loop can have a short-term, tremendous impact on the underlying stock price.

The conditions for a gamma squeeze typically require a few ingredients:

• a stock with relatively thin float.

• large buildup of near-the-money call options with short expiries.

• enough momentum to start the feedback loop.

Avis (CAR) was the most recent example. CAR surged from roughly $150 in late March to nearly $850 in a matter of weeks before collapsing back to $150. Unlike semiconductor and hardware stocks, the gamma squeeze in CAR was more pronounced because its float was small and short interest was nearly 90%. That said, call option volumes spiked by roughly 10,000%, contributing to the surge in the stock price.

The Gamma Flip

If a gamma squeeze can set a stock price or market on fire, the gamma flip can pour water on it.

Dealers are never perfectly hedged. Thus, to quantify how their hedging activity might impact the market, it’s useful to know the degree to which they are over- or under-hedged. In market parlance, that is their net gamma position.

When dealers are net short gamma (they have sold more options than they have bought), they are forced to buy stocks when prices rise and sell when prices fall to stay hedged. Thus, when dealers collectively hold short-gamma positions, they have to chase the market; their hedging activities amplify price movements and volatility.

On the other hand, when dealers are net long gamma, the opposite occurs. They buy weakness and sell strength. Accordingly, these hedging activities serve as a natural market stabilizer, dampening volatility.

The gamma flip occurs at the price level where a dealer’s gamma exposure crosses from positive to negative territory, or vice versa. This level is calculated by options analytics firms and is increasingly closely watched by institutional traders. The gamma flip is something of an invisible gravitational boundary in the market.

The graph below, courtesy of Radar Options, shows that as of May 11, 2026, the S&P 500 Index is in a long-gamma position, supportive of an uptrend with reduced volatility. If it were to flip negative by falling below 7185, we should expect increased pressure for further downside and higher volatility.

Keep in mind the graph is for the S&P 500. Each individual stock has its own aggregate gamma exposure level, which can differ widely from the market.

Option Extremes Today

Dealer hedging is dynamic; thus, gamma exposure and flip levels are constantly in flux. The graph below, courtesy of ZeroHedge, shows that the volatility in dealers’ aggregate gamma positioning has been extreme recently. In just a six-week period, gamma exposure flipped from extremely short, which supported the rally from the late March lows, to one of the longest gamma positions on record.

The graphic below shows how extreme the rush into technology call options has been. The bottom-left graph shows that call skew on the Nasdaq (QQQ) is the highest it’s been in over the past year. Call skew measures the extent to which out-of-the-money calls trade at higher implied volatility than at-the-money calls. High skew reflects aggressive demand for upside calls, which drives up premiums on higher call strikes. High call skew is most common in individual momentum stocks and during gamma squeezes, when the options market prices in a higher probability of explosive upside than a normal distribution would suggest.

Bear in mind that the put skew is currently very low, signaling historically low demand for protection. 

Summary

Options were traditionally used for risk management purposes.  Yet their proliferation and widespread use by traders and gamblers have created a market structure that increasingly results in significant volatility and enormous price changes for entirely non-fundamental reasons. Thus, the risk management tool has become a market risk in and of itself.

As we have witnessed with CAR and are currently seeing with many technology stocks, a stock price can surge when a critical mass of investors generates a momentum signal, drawing in more investors and short-dated call buyers. Options brokers then feed the momentum as they are forced to buy as the stock price rises.

Similarly, as we also saw with CAR and will likely see with some semiconductor and hardware stocks, prices can drop sharply not because of fundamental developments, but simply because momentum gives way, gamma flips, and dealer hedging amplifies a modest decline into something more severe.

Sometimes stocks and markets completely ignore fundamentals and run higher on a self-reflexive loop. During these moments, prices get divorced from fundamentals, and individual stocks and/or markets can become fragile.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 14:45

Ex-Con Hacker Twins Fired - Proceed To Wipe Out 96 Government Databases In Minutes

Note to employers: When you discover your twin brother employees are ex-cons who did time for hacking into the US State Department, and go to fire them, make sure you fully disable their access. 

February 2025, twin brothers Muneeb and Sohaib Akhter turned a routine job termination into one of the most brazen insider sabotage incidents in recent U.S. government history. Just minutes after being fired from Opexus - a Washington, D.C.-area contractor that provides critical case-management software to more than 45 federal agencies - the brothers allegedly launched a rapid digital assault that deleted approximately 96 government databases containing sensitive FOIA records, investigative files, and taxpayer data.

Muneeb and Sohaib Akhter

What made the case especially shocking was the brothers' prior history: both had served prison time for hacking federal systems a decade earlier. 

A Decade-Old Criminal Record

The Akhter brothers, both 34 and from Alexandria, Virginia, had a criminal past that Opexus completely missed - which, given what they do, is not great. In 2015, while working as contractors, they pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to access protected computers without authorization, and related charges. Their crimes involved hacking into U.S. State Department systems and a private company, stealing personal data on coworkers, acquaintances, and even a federal investigator.

Muneeb received a 39-month prison sentence; Sohaib received 24 months. Both served their time and were released.

And yet... 

By 2023-2024, the brothers had landed engineering roles at Opexus (formerly known as AINS), a firm specializing in FedRAMP-certified case-management platforms. Its flagship products - FOIAXpress and the eCASE suite - help agencies process Freedom of Information Act requests, audits, investigations, EEO complaints, and congressional correspondence. Opexus systems host sensitive government data on servers in Ashburn, Virginia.

The company conducted standard background checks covering roughly seven years - which missed the 2015 convictions. Opexus later admitted that "additional diligence should have been applied" and that the individuals responsible for hiring the twins are no longer with the company.

Unbeknownst to Opexus at the time of termination, the brothers had been abusing their access for weeks. Muneeb had collected approximately 5,400 usernames and passwords from the company's network and built custom scripts to test them against external sites (including Marriott and DocuSign). He successfully logged into accounts and, in some cases, used victims' airline miles.

On February 1, 2025 - more than two weeks before their firing - Muneeb asked Sohaib for the plaintext password of an individual who had filed a complaint through the EEOC Public Portal. Sohaib ran a database query and provided it; Muneeb then used the credentials to access the complainant's email without authorization. This incident later became central to Sohaib's password-trafficking charge.

The Firing and the 56-Minute Rampage

On February 18, 2025, the FDIC flagged Sohaib's prior conviction during a background check for a potential new role at the FDIC Office of Inspector General. Opexus fired both brothers during a remote Microsoft Teams/HR meeting that ended around 4:50-4:55 p.m.

The offboarding was flawed: Muneeb's account remained active. ARS Technica has the timeline:

At 4:56 pm, Muneeb accessed a US government database that his company maintained. He "issued commands to prevent other users from connecting or making changes to the database, and then issued a command to delete the database," the government said.

At 4:58 pm, he wiped out a Department of Homeland Security database using the command "DROP DATABASE dhsproddb."

At 4:59 pm, he asked an AI tool, "How do i clear system logs from SQL servers after deleting databases?" He later asked, "How do you clear all event and application logs from Microsoft windows server 2012?"

In the space of a single hour, Muneeb deleted around 96 databases with US government information. He downloaded 1,805 files belonging to the EEOC and stashed them on a USB drive, then grabbed federal tax information for at least 450 people.

The brothers discussed the attack in real time. Sohaib observed Muneeb "cleaning out their database backups." They even queried an AI tool on how to clear SQL server logs and Windows event logs. They later reinstalled the operating systems on their company laptops to destroy evidence.

And What Else Did They Do? 

Based on the court documents (Superseding Indictment + Muneeb Akhter’s detailed Statement of Facts from his April 2026 plea deal), the brothers were up to quite a lot of malarkey. 

Massive extra data haul (1.2 million lines): Muneeb didn’t just steal ~5,400 usernames/passwords from Opexus. He also possessed a separate file containing ~1.2 million lines of full names, email addresses, phone numbers, physical addresses, and password hashes. This was stored across his personal laptop, Android phone, external hard drive, and cloud accounts.

The credential abuse went on for 10 months after they were fired: The database deletions happened on Feb 18, 2025, but Muneeb kept actively using the stolen credentials from May 2025 all the way until his arrest on December 3, 2025. He wrote custom Python scripts (one literally named marriott_checker.py), ran credential-stuffing attacks on hotels, airlines, and banks, and successfully logged into hundreds of victims’ accounts.

Sophisticated account takeovers with his own domains: He didn’t just log in - he changed victims’ recovery email addresses on airline, hotel, and bank accounts to addresses he controlled, such as [VictimName]@wardensys.com or @wardensystems.com (domains he owned). This let him lock the real owners out and keep using the accounts.

Real-time blackmail brainstorming during the deletion rampage: At ~5:12 p.m. on Feb 18 - while Muneeb was still deleting databases - the brothers literally discussed blackmailing Opexus. Sohaib said something to the effect of: “you shoulda had a kill script, like, blackmailing them for some money…” Muneeb shot it down, replying that it would be obvious proof of guilt. They also argued about whether to contact customers.

“Clean stuff up from the other house”: During the same conversation, Sohaib said: “We also gotta clean stuff up from the other house, man.” This strongly implies they had evidence or stolen data at a second location.

Muneeb fled with a government-issued PIV card: When Muneeb drove to Texas on Feb 24, 2025, he took his personal laptop, phone, and a Personal Identity Verification (PIV) card issued by a U.S. government agency. (PIV cards are the high-security smart cards federal employees/contractors use for system access.)

Other smaller but wild nuggets

• A “co-conspirator” (identity not specified in the public docs) wiped both company laptops by reinstalling the OS on Feb 21–22.
• Muneeb used stolen American Airlines miles twice: 29,000 miles for a real flight he actually took (SLC → DC on Nov 29, 2025) and 14,500 miles for another ticket he booked but didn’t use.
• Muneeb had a separate aggravated identity theft count from August 2022 (pre-Opexus) involving someone’s passport and personal info.

Guns too!

A federal search warrant executed at Sohaib's Alexandria home on March 12, 2025, uncovered seven firearms (including M1 and M1A rifles, a Glenfield Model 60 .22 rifle, a Ruger .22 pistol, and a Colt .38 Special revolver) plus roughly 378 rounds of .30-caliber ammunition. Under Virginia law at the time, these guns and the ammunition were fully legal for a non-prohibited person to own - no assault-weapon ban, no magazine limits, no restrictions on the specific models. The only prohibition was Sohaib's status as a convicted felon, which made possession illegal under federal law (18 U.S.C. § 922(g)).

The brothers were arrested on December 3, 2025. Muneeb ultimately pleaded guilty to major charges, including computer fraud and destruction of records. Sohaib went to trial.

On May 7, 2026, a federal jury in Alexandria convicted Sohaib Akhter on three counts: conspiracy to commit computer fraud, password trafficking, and possession of a firearm by a prohibited person. He faces a maximum of 21 years in prison and is scheduled for sentencing on September 9, 2026. Muneeb faces additional charges and potential penalties up to 45 years.

So, whoops...

As an aside, remember when House Democrats let the Awan Brothers go hog wild in their network for 13 years, were fired for suspected unauthorized server access, procurement irregularities, and possible data exfiltration, and were one of them was able to plead guilty to one count of making a false statement on a loan application and sentenced to time served - only to then receive an $850,000 wrongful termination settlement by the five Pakistani-American tech workers involved in the saga? Crazy!

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 14:30

Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Makes History With First 5%+ Yield Since The Great Quant Crash Of Aug 2007

Moments ago, the last refunding auction of the week, the sale of $25BN in 30Y paper, made history: it was the first 30Y auction to print with a high yield above 5%, and a coupon of 5%, since August 2007... which as veteran traders will recall was the month of the historic quant crash which marked the S&P highs at the time and eventually culminated in the global financial crisis. 

The auction priced at a high yield of 5.046%, up sharply from 4.876% in April, and tailed the 5.041% When Issued by 0.5bps, the second consecutive tail following 4 stop-throughs. 

But, as noted above, what is more notable was that this was the first 5% interest rate coupon 30Y auction, and the the first 30Y auction with a high yield above 5% since... August 2007 when surging rates sparked a quant crash. Come to think of it, unlike retail momentum chasers, quants have had a terrible month. How much longer can they last? But we digress... 

Going back to the auction, the uglyness was all around: the bid to cover was 2.303, down from 2.385, below the 2.43 six auction average and the lowest since Nob 2025.

Internals were not quite as bad, with Indirects taking down 66.6%, up from 64.1% in April and just below the 66.8% recent average. And with Directs awarded 21.74%, Dealers were left with 11.7%. 

Overall, this was an ugly, tailing auction, but the question on everyone's lips is whether today's quction will - like in August 2007 - be the VaR shock equivalent of a bond auction that pops this particular bubble. For the answer keep a close eye on quants who are suffering badly. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:35

Imminent Supreme Court Rulings To Watch For

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Birthright citizenship, girls sports, the definition of Election Day, and other hot-button topics are on the line in upcoming Supreme Court decisions.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The court’s 2025–2026 term is expected to end in June with a series of rulings that could impact social issues and President Donald Trump’s agenda.

The last scheduled oral argument was held on April 29; the justices considered whether Trump wrongfully terminated deportation protections for thousands of Haitian and Syrian nationals. That decision and a ruling on Trump’s order restricting birthright citizenship could influence immigration policy for decades to come.

So far, the court has already issued opinions on Trump’s tariffs and redistricting. Its remaining decisions could change how elections are conducted, as well as alter the balance of power between Congress and the president.

Here are the main decisions expected before the end of June.

Birthright Citizenship

A key part of Trump’s immigration agenda has been his attempt to limit who receives American citizenship. The 14th Amendment states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

Historically, the executive branch interpreted this amendment to grant citizenship to babies born to illegal immigrants. Trump changed this interpretation on his first day in office, passing an executive order stating that the amendment only applied to children who had at least one parent with citizenship or lawful permanent residency.

In Trump v. Barbara, the president asked the Supreme Court to intervene after a federal judge blocked his executive order. During oral argument on April 1, the Justice Department said that parents should be legal residents or have some kind of allegiance to the United States before their children receive citizenship. The justices, however, seemed skeptical and indicated they may view citizenship more broadly.

Migrants, including a pregnant Haitian woman seeking to give birth in the United States, are apprehended by a U.S. Border Patrol agent in Yuma, Ariz., on Dec. 7, 2021. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of a Trump executive order aimed at restricting birthright citizenship before the end of June. John Moore/Getty Images Girls Sports

Another highly anticipated decision focuses on Idaho’s and West Virginia’s laws preventing males from participating in girls and women’s sports. Federal appeals courts blocked those laws, stating that they conflict with another portion of the 14th Amendment known as the equal protection clause. That clause generally prohibits laws that classify or discriminate on the basis of certain characteristics.

The appeals courts said the state laws conflict with that clause because they classify individuals on the basis of their sex and “transgender status.” The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit also said West Virginia’s law violated Title IX of the Civil Rights Act. That law prohibits sex-based discrimination in federally funded education.

The justices heard oral argument in January for the cases, known as Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J. Overall, the justices seemed inclined to uphold the states’ laws.

People take part in a rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court as justices hear arguments in two cases in which states have banned males from participating in female-only sports in Washington on Jan. 13, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times Monsanto’s Weedkiller

Monsanto’s herbicide, known as Roundup, has cost the company millions of dollars following lawsuits alleging one of its ingredients, glyphosate, increases cancer risk.

One of those lawsuits made it to the Supreme Court in April and could determine how much Monsanto has to pay in future lawsuits. The case, Monsanto v. Durnell, focused on a Missouri jury that held the company liable for not warning about glyphosate’s purported risks.

Monsanto told the Supreme Court that the jury’s verdict was based on a faulty interpretation of the law. The jury said Monsanto was liable under a Missouri law that requires warnings for consumer products. Monsanto argued that the jury interpreted the law in a way that conflicted with another law passed at the federal level.

The Supreme Court’s eventual decision is expected to touch on a legal doctrine known as preemption, which says that federal law takes precedence over state law when there is a conflict between the two. In this case, Monsanto said the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act should take precedence.

“The People vs. the Poison” protesters rallied to protest Bayer/Monsanto regarding cancer-linked risks from the Roundup weedkiller outside the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on April 27, 2026. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

That law gives the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency authority to regulate chemicals such as glyphosate. Because the agency already approved glyphosate’s use and didn’t require additional warnings, Monsanto said Missouri couldn’t require more either. Durnell argued that the verdict didn’t conflict with federal law and that Missouri should be able to protect its citizens’ health.

Trump’s Ability to Fire Bureaucrats

One of the main legal complaints leveled during Trump’s second administration was that he fired high-level bureaucrats without good reason. Leaders of so-called “independent” agencies, such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), sued, alleging that Trump didn’t show the type of cause federal law required of presidents when firing officials.

In Trump v. Slaughter, Trump asked the Supreme Court to intervene after a lower court blocked his attempt to fire FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter. The justices seemed inclined in December 2025 to not just allow her firing, but also expand the authority presidents have in removing bureaucrats like her.

Their eventual decision could overturn a 90-year-old precedent from Humphrey’s Executor v. United States. In that 1935 case, the Supreme Court held that former President Franklin D. Roosevelt wrongly fired a former FTC commissioner and that Congress could restrict his ability to do so.

The Trump administration argues that the Constitution gives the president greater authority and that Congress cannot use laws such as the FTC Act to restrict his ability to remove bureaucrats.

Then-Federal Trade Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter participates in a privacy roundtable at CES 2020 at the Las Vegas Convention Center in Las Vegas on Jan. 7, 2020. David Becker/Getty Images Fed Independence

Like the FTC Act, another law, known as the Federal Reserve Act, said presidents couldn’t remove high-level officials without cause. That was the law that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook cited when she challenged Trump’s attempt to fire her last year.

Trump removed Cook while citing allegations that she committed mortgage fraud, something she has denied. During oral argument in January, the Supreme Court wrestled with multiple questions: whether Trump gave Cook enough due process before firing her, how the firing would impact the economy, and how Trump’s view of his authority would impact the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Overall, the justices seemed inclined to side with Cook. The case, Trump v. Cook, followed other decisions in which the Supreme Court suggested that the Federal Reserve was more independent than agencies such as the FTC and that its members therefore deserved additional protections.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook (R) arrives for a board meeting at the Federal Reserve building in Washington on March 19, 2026. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Definition of ‘Election Day’

The 2020 presidential election reinvigorated debate over mail-in ballots, a controversial method of voting that Trump and others argue is vulnerable to fraud. Multiple states, including Mississippi, have allowed mail-in ballots to be counted after Election Day as long as they are postmarked on or before that day.

Trump and the Republican National Committee argue that practice violates a federal law that defines Election Day as “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.”

When the case, Watson v. Republican National Committee, reached the Supreme Court, the Trump administration supported the committee’s position.

“‘Election day’ was the day all voting needed to be completed; and the act of voting was not complete until a ballot had been officially received,” the Justice Department told the court.

Mississippi argues the law simply requires that voters make their choice by Election Day, not that their ballots are counted.

Election officials count absentee ballots at a polling place located in the Town of Beloit fire station near Beloit, Wis., on Nov. 3, 2020. Scott Olson/Getty Images

During oral argument in March, the justices seemed more likely to side with the committee. “We’re moving in this direction,” Justice Samuel Alito said. “We don’t have Election Day anymore. We have election month or we have election months.”

Deportation Protections

The court’s most recent oral argument focused on the Department of Homeland Security’s termination of deportation protections for thousands of Haitians and Syrians. “Temporary protected status” prevents nationals of certain countries from being removed if conditions in their home countries would make returning unsafe.

Under President Barack Obama, the department granted that status for Haiti, which was impacted by the 2010 earthquake, and Syria, which has seen ongoing political turmoil and armed conflict.

Former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem terminated those protections last year, prompting lawsuits and federal judges’ orders blocking those terminations.

The justices heard oral argument in the cases, known as Mullin v. Doe and Trump v. Miot, on April 29. They considered whether those judges exceeded their authority under the Immigration and Nationality Act, which generally prohibits judicial review of the department’s determinations about temporary protected status.

Guerline Jozef, co-founder and Executive Director of Haitian Bridge Alliance, speaks in front of the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on March 16, 2026. The Court agreed on March 16 to consider the Trump administration’s bid to strip Haitians and Syrians of temporary deportation protections. The Department of Homeland Security has announced plans to end so-called Temporary Protected Status for some 350,000 Haitians and 6,000 Syrians. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Lower court judges, however, said the administration still had to follow certain procedures, but that it didn’t when it terminated those protections. The justices also considered a federal judge’s argument that the administration likely acted with racial animus toward Haitians and therefore violated the Constitution.

Campaign Finance

How much protection does the First Amendment afford political parties when they spend money on campaigns? That’s one of the questions the Supreme Court is expected to address in a case called National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Committee.

The case originated with a lawsuit brought by then-Senate candidate JD Vance, who argued that Congress violated the First Amendment with the Federal Election Campaign Act. That law restricts how much political parties and candidates’ campaigns can coordinate their spending.

The Supreme Court upheld that restriction in 2001 on the basis that coordination opened a backdoor for corruption. In its upcoming decision, the court could maintain its prior position or overrule itself while siding with Republicans.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:35

Up To $170 Billion Needed To Secure Full Domestic Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain

To support current commercial nuclear operations, plus 300 GW of new nuclear capacity for a total of roughly 400 GW by 2050, all fueled domestically, the country would need to invest between $105 billion and $170 billion across the entire nuclear fuel cycle.

Is it still called a bottleneck if the entire industry is the problem? 

The consulting firm McKinsey & Company used the most aspirational scenario from the Trump administration’s May 2025 executive orders as its benchmark for their recent report. That means rebuilding capacity from mining and milling through conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and even reprocessing.

It's looking more and more like the $2.7 billion award from the DOE for domestic enrichment barely scratches the surface:

• $15-20 billion for mining and milling
• $30-45 billion for conversion
• $30-40 billion for enrichment
• $10-20 billion for fabrication
• $20-45 billion for reprocessing

These figures assume a mix of new and existing reactors, including Gen IV designs that will demand high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU).

We have documented the vulnerabilities for months. Today the United States imports about 99 percent of the raw uranium ore needed for its commercial fleet… 

With milling capacity effectively nonexistent and conversion limited to a single operating facility… 

And enrichment capacity covers only about one-third of domestic needs…

The gaps leave utilities exposed to geopolitical risks and price volatility, a point we highlighted when uranium spot prices pulled back earlier this year even as long-term supply deficits widened…

Uranium: the next gold pic.twitter.com/2SSjvRkdSg

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2025

Progress is

Uranium: the next gold pic.twitter.com/2SSjvRkdSg

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2025 ">accelerating, however. We reported on the DOE’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Production Act Consortium, which has met repeatedly to map out a seven-year “Nuclear Dominance – 3 by 33” plan covering every link from mining to reprocessing. 

DOE has also awarded nearly $3 billion for enrichment projects, including $900 million each to Centrus Energy and General Matter, while the Export-Import Bank has backed up to $4.2 billion in additional financing. Centrus recently committed $560 million to scale centrifuge manufacturing in Oak Ridge, and we covered its joint-venture discussions with Oklo for HALEU deconversion services.

The private sector is also making progress on their own, not wanting to wait for the government to sort itself out and attempt to take market share while it's up for grabs. 

Uranium Energy Corp is expanding ISR mining and advancing conversion licensing. New entrants like FluxPoint Energy and LIS Technologies are targeting conversion and next-generation laser enrichment facilities, aiming for commercial operations before 2030. 

We also noted Goldman Sachs’ updates showing persistent supply-demand mismatches that continue to support higher uranium prices over the coming decades.

McKinsey stresses that capital alone will not suffice. Permitting reform, infrastructure build-out, workforce development, and advanced technologies will prove critical to compressing the long lead times inherent in fuel-cycle projects. The firm acknowledges 100% domestic sourcing will prove challenging, yet the analysis underscores that options exist if stakeholders maintain focus.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:00

B200s Or B-2s?

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist of Rabobank

Concerns about the Middle East continued to dictate markets yesterday. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and there were no signs that this will change soon. Oil prices rose further. Dated Brent jumped 5% on the day to top $111.

Alongside the rise in benchmark energy prices, yields increased too. 10y US Treasury yields closed around 5bp higher, and 10y German Bund yields rose 6bp to 3.1%, dragging broader EUR yields up. Equities struggled. European bourses closed around 1.5% lower, but the S&P pared most of its losses after the European close, so the Euro Stoxx index may catch up to its US counterpart today.

This reversal happened after oil prices came off their intraday highs, and as news broke that Nvidia CEO Huang will join the US delegation to China. President Trump indicated that he wants to focus on economic issues during his summit with President Xi, more so than on geopolitical issues in the Middle East. Markets certainly seem hopeful that Trump and Xi will discuss B200 chips rather than B-2 bombers.

Of course, the Iran war complicates negotiations between the two leaders. China agrees to oppose any toll scheme for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US State Department. Meanwhile, Iraq and Pakistan have reportedly made deals with Iran to safeguard oil and LNG shipments from the Gulf – underscoring that Iran is able to effectively control the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz. China has also further diversified its oil imports. This may make China more resilient to prolonged disruptions in Hormuz, while it also cuts off more potential income for Iran.

But China will probably want something in return. President Trump will reportedly discuss US weapons sales to Taiwan with Xi, breaking with a decades-long US tradition. US allies in Asia are alarmed that Trump may agree to Xi’s request to delay or stop deliveries. That’s a longer-term geopolitical risk, but markets may shrug off any such potential concessions if the US and China report progress on economic issues.

And any optimism from the Trump-Xi summit may be overshadowed by developments in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that tensions will flare up again during the summit, but that’s only two days of respite. On his way to China, President Trump told reporters that stopping Iran’s nuclear programme outweighs Americans’ economic pain. The US presidents’ comments add to concerns that tensions in the Middle East may flare up again after the summit.

Adding further unease about the US’ next steps in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reports that the US president spoke with his U.A.E. counterpart to discuss “mutual interests.” This news follows on the WSJ’ report that the United Arab Emirates had secretly carried out military strikes in Iran.

Elsewhere, gilt yields’ rollercoaster ride continues, as domestic politics stack on top of geopolitical risks. Even the BBC is talking about intraday moves in gilts now, which is never a sign that things are going well. Pressure on a defiant PM Starmer is building. Several ministers resigned from their posts yesterday, after dozens of MPs had already called on Starmer to resign. Today, the 11 unions that support the Labour party are expected to issue a joint statement that calls for a roadmap to a new party leader into the next general elections.

Uncertainty about the UK’s leadership continues to weigh on both UK sovereign yields and the currency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:45

Qatar Asks Vessels At Key LNG Port To Go Dark for Safety

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Qatar has requested LNG vessels near its Ras Laffan LNG port to switch off their transponders as part of safety measures at the key export port of the world’s second-largest LNG exporter before the war, anonymous sources with knowledge of the plan told Bloomberg on Tuesday.  

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped about 20% of daily global LNG flows, mostly those previously shipping out of Qatar and part of the UAE’s LNG flows. 

In addition, Iranian drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure in the region has damaged Qatar’s key LNG liquefaction complex Ras Laffan, the world’s single largest such facility. Due to the attacks, QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts and has advised that full capacity could take up to five years to restore following extensive damage from the strikes. 

The waters around Qatar have seen increased security threats since the war began on February 28. After more than two months of total blockage of Qatari shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz, the major Gulf LNG exporter is now apparently seeking to avoid being targeted. 

At least nine LNG tankers that were anchored near Qatar stopped sending signals via their Automatic Identification System from May 11, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed, in a sign that Qatar may have indeed asked ships to go dark to avoid being targeted. 

A tanker laden with LNG from Qatar successfully passed the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the first such transit since February 28.

Crude tankers have also successfully exited the Strait in recent days, after going dark, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. 

“Commercial shipping and maritime security activity around the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly shifting into dark or emissions-controlled conditions,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Monday.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:30

Goldman Flags Troubling Mortgage Delinquency Rise Across This U.S. Region

Mortgage delinquencies fell slightly in March, with the first-lien delinquency rate declining to 3.35%, down 37 basis points from February, as seasonal factors and tax refunds supported borrowers.

The real estate and mortgage industry outlet HousingWire cited Intercontinental Exchange’s May 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which showed that while the overall mortgage delinquency rate fell in March, there was still concern over serious delinquencies and foreclosures, which are up by 154,000 borrowers from one year ago.

The increase was driven mostly by FHA loans, which rose by 164,000 and now account for a record 55% of seriously past-due mortgages. Overall, 1.6% of active mortgages are seriously delinquent, up 20% year over year.

A lot of questions here...

During the Biden administration, H-1B visa holders were buying houses with 97-100% financing. 97% would come from the FHA, with the rest coming from state first-time home buyer programs.

Zero money down. Thanks to programs that were supposed to be helping low-income American… https://t.co/0ZaLGV0Wru pic.twitter.com/WvlRjgYeJV

— Robert Sterling (@RobertMSterling) May 13, 2026

Adding to the mortgage delinquency story is Goldman analyst Jason Acosta, who released a note earlier today, showing what he described to clients as the "chart of the day."

The chart indicates that mortgage past-due rates are highest across parts of the Deep South, with Mississippi and Louisiana as the worst-performing states, followed by elevated stress in Alabama, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and others.

"On a national level, mortgage delinquencies eased in March, yet higher-severity stress remained elevated even amid the strongest monthly gain in U.S. home prices in two years," Acosta said.

He added, "We just released a new widget looking at past-due rates on a state-by-state basis below, with updates incoming to select between ranges of 30-59 days, 60-89 days, and 90 days+."

Here is the chart: What is the mortgage past-due rate by state?

Latest on the housing market:

• Housing Market's Crucial "Spring Selling Season" Is In Tatters

The read we have here is that mortgage distress is becoming increasingly concentrated in lower-income Southern states, even as the national delinquency rate improved modestly overall.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:15

Treasury Department Alerts US Banks To Suspected Iranian Money Laundering Efforts

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes ​Enforcement Network (FinCEN) on May 11 issued an alert to financial institutions warning them of efforts by ​the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to evade sanctions.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury in Washington on June 30, 2025.Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

FinCEN said in a statement that the IRGC has been facilitating and laundering the proceeds of illicit oil sales using networks of financial facilitators and shell companies. The alert provides red flags on the IRGC’s oil smuggling, digital assets, and front-company abuse to aid financial institutions in detecting and reporting suspicious activity, the statement said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that financial institutions have a responsibility to stop this activity.

“Degraded by Economic Fury, the Iranian military is desperately trying to fund its weapons programs and terrorist proxies,” Bessent said.

“Treasury will continue to deny the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps access to the financial networks it exploits to fund its terrorist acts. Financial institutions should be on notice that they have a responsibility to detect suspicious activity and stop it in its tracks.”

The Treasury network describes the IRGC as a parallel organization to Tehran’s regular armed forces, which reports directly to the leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. The IRGC is a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization.

Shadow Banking

FinCEN says the IRGC can make money from oil sales by misrepresenting its commercial activities. It smuggles oil using a “shadow fleet” of vessels that operate outside normal maritime rules and are often owned and operated by companies outside Iran.

Proceeds are then laundered through “shadow banking” networks to sell their oil and commodities abroad.

“By using front company accounts outside Iran to receive and remit payments, sanctioned entities like the IRGC are able to conduct transactions through the international financial system without repatriating funds to Iran,” FinCEN said.

The network says that with these proceeds, Iran can fund the procurement and development of weapons, as well as fund terrorist activity abroad.

Sanctions on Iran

The alert comes after President Donald Trump said on May 11 that a ceasefire with Iran was on “life support.”

The president’s remarks follow Tehran’s proposal to end the war over the weekend.

“I would call it the weakest right now after reading that piece of garbage they sent us,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “I didn’t even finish reading it.”

A ceasefire between the United States and Iran went into effect in April, ending weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes on the country that started on Feb. 28.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for oil and natural gas, has remained effectively closed in the meantime, sending oil prices surging and rattling stock markets worldwide.

In the meantime, the U.S. military has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on May 11 that 62 commercial ships have been redirected and four ships disabled as it enforced the blockade.

Also on Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against 12 new targets as part of its “Economic Fury” initiative to disrupt Tehran’s economic and military capacity.

The Treasury said it had designated 12 individuals and entities for their roles in enabling the IRGC’s sale and shipment of Iranian oil to China.

“The IRGC relies on front companies in permissive economic jurisdictions to obfuscate its role in oil sales and funnel the revenue to the Iranian regime. Instead of using this revenue to support the struggling Iranian people, the regime directs it toward weapons development, backing terrorist proxies, and funding security forces that suppress citizens’ freedoms,” the Treasury said.

Joseph Lord and Jack Phillips contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:00

IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Global Oil Supply To Plunge Below Demand This Year

Global oil demand is set to exceed supply in the current year amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reversing previous projections of a surplus, OilPrice reports citing the latest IEA data.

"With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply ​losses from Middle East Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 million (barrels per ⁠day) of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock," said the agency, which advises industrialized countries.

According to the May 2026 Oil Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply is projected to fall by 3.9 million bpd across 2026, with ~10.5 million bpd of Gulf oil production currently offline.

Global oil stocks are depleting at a record pace as supply losses from disruptions to flows via the Strait of Hormuz keep mounting

Producers & consumers are responding to the market signals, with Atlantic crude oil exports surging & refiners cutting runs: https://t.co/cOYraM4phx pic.twitter.com/QWJlPICebi

— International Energy Agency (@IEA) May 13, 2026

Consumption is also under pressure due to the war as ​price spikes lead ⁠to demand destruction and slower economic growth: Global demand is also forecast to contract by 420,000 bpd compared to a ​previous forecast of an 80,000 bpd drop due to surging prices, slow economic growth and widespread flight cancellations, with oil demand still set to outpace supply by 1.78 million bpd in the current year.

"Our latest supply and demand estimates imply that the market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of 3Q26, even assuming the conflict ends by early June," the Paris-based agency said, adding that the second-quarter deficit will be as stark as ​6 million bpd.

Global crude runs are expected to plunge by 1.6 million bpd to an average of 82.3 mb/d for the year as operators face infrastructure damage and severe feedstock shortages, with refinery throughput expected to fall by 4.5 million bpd in the second quarter alone.

Operators in the Middle East and Asia are battling significant damage to energy infrastructure and reduced availability of crude feedstocks, largely stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The heaviest cuts have been in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, heavily impacting naphtha, LPG and jet fuel production.

According to the IEA, global oil inventories are projected to fall by an average of 8.5 mb/d during the second quarter of 2026, with the drawdown largely due to a decline in crude output from countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.

The steepest inventory draws are projected to occur in May and June, helping to keep Brent crude prices elevated at ~$106 per barrel.

Whereas the release of a total of 400 million barrels by 32 IEA members is expected to provide a temporary buffer, the market will still face a significant deficit that could keep prices high through the year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:00