Zero Hedge

Slouching Toward Peace With Washington In Good-Cop/Bad-Cop Mode

Slouching Toward Peace With Washington In Good-Cop/Bad-Cop Mode

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

". . .They are running the Accords logic to its conclusion: every adversary becomes a counterparty, every conflict becomes a deal, every closed economy becomes an investable market."

- Patrick Wood

That squawking you hear is Iran getting dragged kicking and screaming out of its jihad delirium into something that might look like reality-based relations with the rest of the world. They have to loudly declare that it’s not happening, even as it’s happening, to gaslight their own home folks, who might be getting a little sick of economic free-fall — and probably sick of the IRGC regime itself. And, of course, they know that the Lefty-left half of the USA is rooting for this whole business to fail so they can get their mitts back on the levers of power to avoid prison.

Things are at a pretty pass, all righty. The sticking point of the moment is Lebanon. Everybody is twanging on Israel to quit fighting Hezbollah. Okay, but does Hezbollah not have some obligation to quit its provocations? And is Iran, which controls Hezbollah, not responsibile to make Hezbollah stop?

Notice, you don’t hear any of the kibitzers calling for that. That’s because getting Hezbollah to poke Israel in the eye with a sharp stick is Iran’s favored device for dragging out negotiations which, they apparently hope, will put POTUS in fear of the looming midterm election. But time is running out on their playing for time. What they’re actually playing is pretend — pretending to be living large and in-charge. They’ve got nothing else, really. They’ve driven their country into a ditch.

The US is in a straight-up good-cop / bad-cop mode. VP Vance, on-the-ground in Switzerland, presents the very picture of a smooth, cool, rational figure where it counts: face-to-face with Iranian leaders, after all these years. He calmly tells the world news media that “encouraging progress” has been made the first day toward a ceasefire in poor, sore-beset Lebanon. As of Monday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi concurred on “X.”

Meanwhile, President Trump was going mad-dog on social media. Of his relations with irksome Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu, POTUS said, “It’s good, but we have to keep him a little bit sane.” He added, “Iran must stop their highly-paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again. . . bomb the shit out of them.” He advised the Iranian negotiators that they “won’t even make if back” to their country if they keep playing games, and declared that the US will take over the Strait of Hormuz, if necessary. A bit harsh, admittedly. Any trouble parsing it out?

Ghastly as all that might sound, the American negotiating position offers as much carrot as stick. Patrick Wood laid it out nicely in this Substack post. It’s about rearranging the economic “architecture” of the region and, by extension, the rest of the world, which requires a stable, reliable, not-insane Iran and a peaceful Persian Gulf to sustain advanced civilization. The Abraham Accords are designed to induce all the players in the Middle East to act as sovereign nations conscious of, and seeking, their economic best interests — not blocs acting-out large-scale gang warfare based on age-old revenge scenarios. We are simply asking Iran to accept re-integration into real world of transactional nations by joining in the Abraham Accords.

It’s to no one’s benefit for Iran to become a failed state, and that’s what Iran’s leadership is flirting with as they bluster and thwart the peace process. Don’t forget, their clock is ticking, too, maybe even louder than America’s midterm election clock. There’s evidence that the over-full storage capacity for their oil has already caused damage to their oil wells — because shutting down wells degrades the geology of the underlying oil-bearing rock. Inflation has gone wild inside the country, estimated around 70-percent. Iran’s aquifers have lost 90-percent of their water volume as a years-long draught drags on. Iran has to import around 30-percent of its food. Do you suppose these conditions might make everyday life pretty uncomfortable for the Iranian people?

As of Monday morning, VP Vance reported that talks have moved on to the nuclear material question: Iran agreed to offer access to nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. watchdog. They likewise agreed to establish “coordinating mechanisms” aimed at clearing remaining mines from the Strait of Hormuz and solidifying the ceasefire in Lebanon. That looks like actual progress. This was never going to be easy. Expect more bumps on the road. Iran was so far-gone and for such a long time. Show a little patience.

Also, meanwhile, some real fabulous news as Keir Starmer has opted to vacate 10 Downing Street. Good career move! He’s nearly wrecked what’s left of his country. Nobody knows yet who the Labour Party might shove in to replace him, but it’s sure to be another short-timer because the party itself is burnt toast, based on its overwhelming loss in recent local council elections.

Starmer was in office for just over two years. His predecessor Rishi Sunak also lasted less than two years and, before him, PM Liz Truss (remember her?) was gone after 50 days. Procedural rigmarole might drag out the process to replace Starmer until September, when Parliament returns from its summer recess. “Old Blighty,” as the natives sometimes call the UK, is an exceedingly troubled place. With Starmer lingering in office as the lamest of lame ducks, it’s going to be a long summer, and possibly a hot one.

Equally worrisome, at this fraught moment, are the EU’s efforts to start World War Three with Russia. The EU was behind the massive drone attacks against Moscow last week. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, announced plans for “massive group strikes” on Ukrainian targets on a regular basis. Getting spicey over there. All of this is a smokescreen to conceal the political death throes of virtually all the EU member-nation’s leaders — the feckless Merz in Germany, the wobbling Macron in France, the commie PM Pedro Sánchez in Spain, and Giorgia Meloni in Italy, who double-crossed her voters on ending illegal immigration.

Europe’s got nothing. . . but trouble ahead.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 16:20

Definium Soars As Much As 50% After LSD-Based Depression Drug Meets Late-Stage Clinical Trial Goal

Definium Soars As Much As 50% After LSD-Based Depression Drug Meets Late-Stage Clinical Trial Goal

Definium Therapeutics shares surged as much as 54% on Monday, reaching $37.90 in morning trading as investors reacted positively to developments in the biotech company's research pipeline and potential strategic opportunities.

Definium Therapeutics said its LSD-based depression drug, DT120, met the main goal of a mid-stage trial, reducing depression scores by 8.1 points more than placebo after six weeks, according to Reuters.

Patients showed improvement within one week after a single dose, with benefits remaining at 12 weeks. Analysts had said a 4–5 point placebo-adjusted improvement would be a strong result.

DT120, a psychedelic that activates serotonin receptors, was generally well tolerated, with mostly mild side effects occurring on dosing day and no serious safety concerns.

The trial included 149 adults with major depressive disorder, a condition affecting about 21 million U.S. adults. Recent U.S. policy has also encouraged faster development of psychedelic-based mental health treatments.

We noted back in April that psychedelic stocks were going "mainstream", pointing them out as one of the more interesting policy-driven biotech themes, arguing that a supportive regulatory backdrop could become a meaningful catalyst for the sector.

Since then, momentum has accelerated. The FDA unveiled new measures to speed research into psychedelic treatments for serious mental health conditions, while President Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to expand access to promising emerging therapies. The moves could accelerate development timelines for treatments targeting depression, PTSD, addiction, and other difficult-to-treat disorders. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 15:45

Nadella's Hedge: Microsoft Wants To Make AI Models Cheap - Then Own The Rails They Run On

Nadella's Hedge: Microsoft Wants To Make AI Models Cheap - Then Own The Rails They Run On

The entire AI capital cycle - roughly $700 billion in hyperscaler capex this year, an estimated $2 trillion-plus through 2028 - is collateralized by one belief: that intelligence is scarce, and therefore priceable. That belief is already under strain. Per-token inference prices have fallen on the order of 200× in a year, and the only thing holding revenue up is volume; the cost of intelligence is dropping even as the cost of deploying it climbs. Hyperscaler free cash flow is rolling over. The Fed has named AI capital spending a systemic risk. 

And after falling behind in the race to build the best AI, Microsoft is setting up for a massive hedge. The company is on track to spend north of $120 billion this fiscal year - most of it on GPUs and the data centers that house them, $37.5 billion in a single quarter alone, pushing free cash flow negative for the first time in a generation. That is a company betting intelligence is scarce. Yet to the Wall Street Journal last week, Nadella argued the opposite is coming - that intelligence is about to get cheap. The tell isn't a contradiction. It's a hedge: if you can't win the race to build the best model, you make the model worthless and own the road it runs on.

Microsoft is already executing on the hedge. In the weeks surrounding the interview, the company rolled out a new wave of lower-cost models and made Copilot Cowork generally available worldwide - an autonomous agent designed for long-running tasks that lets users (or the system) dynamically route work across multiple models, explicitly including cheaper options. Axios reported that Microsoft is also actively weighing whether to host a version of DeepSeek, the ultralow-cost Chinese model, directly inside Azure for Copilot customers. The model would be optional for users, fully hosted on Microsoft’s infrastructure, and wrapped in the company’s enterprise security, compliance, and data-residency controls.

These aren't side-quests, they are the product-level proof of the thesis: make intelligence abundant and interchangeable while keeping the customer, the data, and the workflow inside Microsoft’s perimeter.

Nadella believes intelligence is about to become abundant, interchangeable, and cheap, as a wave of agents routes work to the lowest bidder. And as the cost per unit of intelligence plummets, he wants Microsoft to own the rails it runs on.

Illustrative. Trend directions are schematic; the figures are point estimates drawn from 2026 hyperscaler capex guidance (~$700B) and reported per-token inference-price declines (~200× per year). Not a fitted data series.

In an interview last week with the Wall Street Journal, Nadella suggested that pitchforks would come out if just a few concentrated AI companies dominate the space, while using massive amounts of energy to do so. 

"You can’t say, hey, all white-collar jobs are gone and this could even be a weapon and we will use all the power to build data centers," he told the outlet, adding that the public wouldn't tolerate just a few models and companies "doing all of the learning for the world."

It's a clean argument. It's also the argument of a company under federal antitrust scrutiny, repositioning as the people's champion right before the regulators arrive. The civic case and the competitive case happen to point the same direction.

So it appears Microsoft has concluded it cannot win the model layer on raw capability. Instead, it intends to make that layer less decisive and relocate the moat to the layers it already owns. In Nadella’s framing, models become interchangeable commodities - “all hill-climbing inside a machine you control.” That machine is Azure + AI Foundry, the orchestration layer that decides which model (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, open-source, or future Microsoft fine-tunes) handles which task at what price. Copilot becomes the persistent agentic interface that keeps the customer relationship. The real scarcity, and therefore the real moat, is the proprietary enterprise data and existing workflows that already live inside Microsoft 365, Dynamics, GitHub, and the company’s security and compliance boundary. Customers get the benefit of the cheapest or best model for the job without ever leaving Microsoft’s control plane or handing their data to a frontier lab. In short: as the model layer commoditizes, whoever owns the data gravity and the distribution layer gets to drink everyone else’s milkshake.

If Nadella is even directionally correct, the entire $700 billion-plus annual hyperscaler capex cycle - and the $2 trillion-plus cumulative spend projected through 2028 - faces a major structural problem. Per-token inference prices are collapsing far faster than volume is rising for many workloads. Free cash flow at the big spenders is already rolling over. The only way the math works is if intelligence becomes so cheap and abundant that total usage explodes, or if the hyperscalers successfully migrate margin upstream into orchestration, agent routing, fine-tuning on proprietary data, and enterprise distribution.

Microsoft is placing its bet on the second path. By pushing models toward commodity status while locking customers into Azure orchestration, Copilot agents, and their existing data estates, the company is trying to turn the very price collapse that threatens the capex thesis into a competitive advantage. The companies that spent the last two years preaching scarcity and hoarding frontier capability may discover they have built extremely expensive infrastructure whose primary output - raw intelligence - is rapidly losing pricing power.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 15:05

The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet A Hawkish Fed

The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet A Hawkish Fed

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar into ten stocks. The whole market technical backdrop points higher into July. But Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair just put a rate HIKE back on the table, and that quietly changes the math underneath every one of those flows.

I want to give credit where it’s due. Scott Rubner, the chief equity and derivatives strategist at Citadel Securities, laid out the mechanical case in a note last week, and I agree with most of his map.1 Citadel sees about 35% of all US retail order flow, so when they describe positioning, I listen. The disagreement isn’t about the flows. It’s about what got armed underneath them on Wednesday afternoon.

The Setup: Two Weeks of Pure Mechanics

Three events are stacked on top of each other. First, Thursday’s quadruple witching, pulled forward a day because of the Juneteenth holiday, cleared roughly $8.3 trillion of US options exposure, about 28% of all listed open interest, and the biggest expiration ever recorded.1 That event strips a mountain of dealer gamma out of the market, which is the technical way of saying price gets less anchored and more sensitive to whatever flow shows up next. That’s the first piece of the technical backdrop heading into quarter-end.

Secondly, we are heading into the end of the second quarter. With the large surge in the financial markets, any allocation-based fund managers are now overweight equities and underweight bonds. As shown, the top 100 US pension funds are now roughly 110% funded, their healthiest position since 2001.1 

The reason that is important is that funded plans don’t press their luck; they de-risk. As noted, the “out of balance” mechanic suggests a risk of mechanical selling of equities and buying of bonds into the month-end. Any weakness that the “rebalancing” mechanic creates is a flow story, not a fundamental one. However, on July 1, that negative flow flips the switch the other way. Retirement contributions, target-date funds, passive allocations, and systematic strategies all reload at once.

The scale of that reload is the part worth sitting with. ETFs have already pulled in more than $1 trillion this year, running about 45% ahead of last year’s record pace.1 The average full year of ETF inflows through 2024 ran near $490 billion.

Read that again. Investors have committed twice as much as a normal year’s worth of money in under six months, and a growing slice of it is mechanical.

The Technical Backdrop Beneath the Headlines

Before we argue about flows, let’s anchor the technical backdrop in the actual price. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,420 after Warsh’s debut knocked 1.21% off the index, then rebounded roughly 1.2% Thursday to near 7,505 ahead of the long weekend.2,3 Even after the Fed scare, the index sits about 2% above its 50-day average, nearly 8% above its 200-day, and only a couple of percent under the all-time high it set this month at 7,620. The spring low of 6,344 is now seventeen percent below us.

That last point matters. As of Wednesday, only about 58% of S&P 500 members were trading above their own 50-day average.4 Healthy advances usually carry 70% to 80% of the index along for the ride. This one keeps making highs on the backs of a shrinking list of names. The index looks strong. The average stock inside it looks tired.

I won’t pretend the demand picture is anything but strong. Retail activity broke records in May and has pushed higher in June, with nine of the ten busiest retail trading days ever landing inside the last month.1 Corporations have authorized north of $925 billion in buybacks this year, the fastest pace on record through mid-year, and technology plus financials make up roughly 57% of it.1 When retail, passive, and the buyback machine all lean in the same direction, fighting that tape has been a losing game.

Here’s the problem buried inside the good news, and it’s the part of the technical backdrop that worries me most. All three of those buyers funnel into the same handful of stocks. Roughly 18 cents of every S&P dollar now chases semiconductors, 33 cents lands in the Magnificent 7, and close to 40 cents flows into the ten largest holdings.1 Leveraged ETFs have compounded it. Their assets hit a record $218 billion, up about 60% since the end of March, with semiconductor-linked leverage nearly tripling.1

Here’s Where I Part Ways With the Flow Note

Rubner’s call is that the path of least resistance stays higher into the back half of the year. On the mechanics alone, I’d struggle to argue with him. The seasonal record is genuinely strong, too. Since 1928, the S&P has risen 69% of the time in the first half of July, and the Nasdaq 100 has been positive in 17 of the last 18 years.1

So why am I not all-in on the bull case? Because the note was written one day before, the technical backdrop beneath it changed. The entire dip-buying reflex that Citadel documents rests on an unspoken belief that the Fed has investors’ backs. On Wednesday, Kevin Warsh quietly took that belief away. The committee held at 3.75%, but half the FOMC penciled in at least one rate increase this year, the easing bias vanished from the statement, and the S&P booked its worst first “Fed day” for a new chair since 1994.2,5 The ten-year yield jumped back toward 4.5%.3

Make no mistake about what that does to the math. Citadel’s own data shows the buy-the-dip behavior holds until the VIX climbs above 30. Today it’s nearly 17. That sounds reassuring. It isn’t. A 17 reading isn’t safety, it’s complacency, and complacency is precisely the condition Howard Marks warns about when he says the riskiest moment is the one that feels least risky. As Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 reminds us, when everyone agrees on the outcome, something else tends to happen.

And remember Farrell’s Rule #4: exponential moves go further than anyone expects, but they don’t resolve by going sideways. A market that runs on flows, leverage, and a shrinking group of leaders can absolutely melt up into July. It can also reverse hard the moment those same mechanical buyers turn into sellers. I’ve been writing for weeks that this is a tape driven by positioning more than fundamentals, and I covered the record retail ETF flows in a recent Daily Market Commentary. Strong flows are bullish until the catalyst arrives that makes them stop.

What the Technical Backdrop Means For Your Portfolio

None of this is a reason to sell everything and hide. It’s a reason to participate with discipline rather than abandon. The seasonal and flow tailwinds are real, and fighting them outright has cost investors dearly. We stay invested. But this is a tape to manage, not to chase.

In our portfolio models, we haven’t pressed our most extended winners, but trimmed the most stretched exposure back toward target weight. We also added to our defensive names and let our cash buffer continue to ride for now. As such, we keep participating without betting the account on a melt-up that depends on the Fed staying friendly. That’s the trade-off worth naming out loud. Carrying a little cash caps your upside if the market runs another leg. It also hands you dry powder if quarter-end selling or a Warsh follow-through gives you a better entry. I’ll take that asymmetry here.

Watch three things into the new quarter.

  • The VIX. A move toward 30 is the level where, by Citadel’s own work, the reflexive dip-buyers go quiet.

  • Breadth. If the percentage of stocks above their 50-day keeps fading while the index grinds higher, the divergence usually resolves the wrong way.

  • Lastly, watch the long end of the curve. If Warsh’s signal keeps the ten-year climbing, the most expensive, most crowded, most rate-sensitive corner of this market, the same one soaking up forty cents of every dollar, is the corner that pays for it first.

The technical backdrop and the flows point higher into July. I won’t fight that into the new allocation cycle, but a tripwire just got armed underneath the whole thing. As such, the smart move is to keep one hand on the risk dial while you collect the seasonal tailwind.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 14:45

Another Ukrainian Drone Wave On Moscow Temporarily Shuts Down All Four Capital Airports

Another Ukrainian Drone Wave On Moscow Temporarily Shuts Down All Four Capital Airports

Yet another major Ukrainian drone attack wave on Moscow has shut down all regional airports, and sent parts of the capital city into temporary panic, and involved dozens of drones shot down overnight. Over 80 drones were intercepted in the past 24 hours, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced Monday on Telegram.

He didn't offer numbers in terms of casualties or damage, but emergency services were dispatched to several areas, given there was debris fallout and key neighborhoods impacted.

Image source: Astra

Across Russia more broadly, hundreds of drones were reportedly downed overnigh, but most of the attacks seemed concentrated on the Moscow area.

The Moscow Times reports of the Moscow region's four commercial flight hubs, "Civil aviation authorities said operations at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports were suspended during the multi-hour attack for safety reasons. The flight restrictions were lifted later in the morning."

Much of the information on strike targets in Russia have come through Telegram and social media channels, and have remained unconfirmed on an official level, but various videos suggest a very large-scale attack.

For example, Sky News reports that "Another post claimed a factory producing electronics for Russian missiles had been struck in Voronezh, more than 100 miles from Ukraine."

Meanwhile, Ukraine has also suffered significant damage and losses - including reports that a Russian drone killed three members of one family, among the victims ⁠a 13-year-old boy, in ⁠Ukraine’s northern ​Sumy ‌region, as cited in Reuters.

President Zelensky commented, "Yet today, Russia began this day not by honoring those who fell in World War II, and not with signals that could help bring the current war – Russia’s war against Ukraine – closer to an end. Instead, it began with more completely unjustifiable killings."

“This Russian war has no justifiable cause. Putin was driven by exactly the same motives as the aggressors who came before him. He shows the same contempt for human life. He is just as delusional about this absurd ‘empire’ of his that nobody needs. This war must be brought to an end.”

Ukraine has been escalating the aerial drone war - seeking to impose a high cost on Russia's industrial and military base - even as it continues to suffer serious manpower shortages along the front lines in the east...

Zelensky has also again vowed to bring the war to Russia - and in particular it has been rare massive attacks on Moscow which have been particularly devastating. Key energy sites have continued to be pummeled.

The end of last week saw one of the biggest single drone waves on Moscow, after which Russia has vowed to carry out frequent and "massive group strikes" against Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 14:25

Nursing School Owner Pleads Guilty After Issuing Nearly 3,000 Fake Diplomas

Nursing School Owner Pleads Guilty After Issuing Nearly 3,000 Fake Diplomas

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Carleen Noreus, who owned two nursing schools in South Florida, has pleaded guilty to her role in a scheme that sold nearly 3,000 fraudulent nursing diplomas, the Department of Justice (DOJ) said in a June 18 statement.

A person receives a vaccine in Los Angeles, in this file photograph. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

The defendant, 52, from Plantation, Florida, was president of the Carleen Home Health School Inc. in Plantation and vice president of Carleen Home Health School II Inc. in West Palm Beach.

"Noreus conspired with others to sell fraudulent nursing diplomas and educational transcripts to individuals who had not completed the required coursework or clinical training to earn Registered Nurse (RN), Licensed Practical Nurse/Vocational Nurse (LPN/VN), or Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) credentials," the DOJ said.

"The fraudulent diplomas and transcripts falsely represented that purchasers had successfully completed the academic and clinical requirements of the schools when, in reality, they had not."

The documents allowed the buyers to take part in national nursing board examinations. Those who passed the exams obtained nursing licenses and employment in the healthcare sector.

In total, Noreus provided 2,956 fraudulent nursing diplomas through her two schools between April 17, 2018, and Oct. 8, 2025. Of the individuals who obtained fake credentials, roughly 2,274 passed the nursing exams, secured licenses, and gained employment in Florida and other parts of the United States. Both institutions have been shut down by state authorities.

The case is part of the second phase of Operation Nightingale, a multi-state law enforcement action launched in January 2023 to arrest individuals who sell fraudulent nursing degree diplomas and transcripts.

The operation led to 25 individuals being charged for the fraud scheme in January 2023. In a Jan. 25, 2023, statement, the DOJ said that more than 7,600 fake nursing diplomas were issued by three nursing schools in South Florida.

On Sept. 15, 2025, the DOJ said that 30 defendants were charged and convicted in 2023 as part of the operation. In addition, the department also announced charges against 12 people in phase two of Operation Nightingale.

Thirteen individuals have been charged in the second phase, including Noreus, the DOJ said in its latest statement. Noreus, who pleaded guilty to conspiracy to launder money and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison for each count.

"Nursing licenses must be earned through education, training, and demonstrated competence, not purchased through fraud," said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Jason A. Reding Quiñones.

"By selling thousands of fraudulent diplomas and transcripts, the defendant undermined the integrity of the nursing profession and our healthcare system. The Southern District of Florida remains committed to holding accountable those who profit by corrupting professional licensing processes and placing the public at risk."

Earlier this year, a Maryland man was sentenced to 21 months in federal prison in another case of nursing credential fraud, according to a DOJ statement issued on April 24.

The person sold fake documents in the name of a Virginia nursing school, which falsely affirmed that buyers had completed the required courses and training at the institution to secure nursing degrees. The individual also sold fraudulent nursing degrees from a Florida-based nursing school.

Nursing Shortage

The country's nursing workforce is projected to face a shortage in the coming years, according to a December 2025 report from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.

"At the national level, there are shortages projected until 2038. Specifically, there is a projected 8 percent shortage of registered nurses (RNs) in 2028. By 2038, the shortage is 3 percent (a shortage of 108,960 full-time equivalent [FTE] RNs)," the report stated.

"Nonmetro areas are projected to have a higher shortage of RNs than metro areas in each of the three interval years: 11 percent vs 2 percent in 2038, 18 percent vs 4 percent in 2033, and 24 percent vs 5 percent in 2028."

However, National Nurses United (NNU), a professional association of registered nurses with over 225,000 members nationwide, dismissed claims of shortages in a May 26 statement.

An analysis conducted by the group found that almost 1.15 million registered nurses in the country with active licenses were not working as nurses, the statement said.

NNU president Jamie Brown said the U.S. nursing sector is facing a "retention crisis" rather than a shortage, blaming "unsafe and unsustainable" working conditions for driving many nurses away from their jobs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 14:05

Rep. Hunt: Racial Argument Against Voter ID Is 'Insulting'

Rep. Hunt: Racial Argument Against Voter ID Is 'Insulting'

Authored by Catherine Salgado via PJMedia.com,

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) emphasized to Congress the importance of passing the election integrity SAVE America Act and rejected woke arguments against voter ID as racist and condescending.

Democrats’ idiotic arguments against requiring ID to vote include claiming that black Americans are somehow mysteriously unable to get IDs. Aside from the obvious elitism and racial prejudice of such a claim, it is practically impossible to live in America and not have identification. They are required at doctor’s offices, airports, bars, liquor stores, car rentals, welfare programs, and many more places. But somehow expecting IDs at polling places is unreasonable? 

Hunt sarcastically said, “I've been black for my entire life. I had to bring up the most racist thing I've ever heard [which] is the insinuation by Democrats that black and brown Americans are too stupid to get an ID to vote, just like everybody else.”

The congressman continued, “I call this the soft bigotry of low expectations. Figuring out how to vote in this country is a very low bar, and we could all figure it out regard of your race, religion, color, or creed, and we should all want free and fair elections.” 

Except Democrats know they cannot win so many elections as they do without fraud, nor can they expand their control to new areas. They have no positive results to run on, no record of making any city or state more prosperous and more free. They need fraud to survive.

Hunt told Congress, “With me today — I'm not gonna pull mine out this time, but I have six forms of government-issued ID. How did I acquire that? Personal responsibility in this country. I've also heard a lot about Jim Crow here today. I'm here to tell you, Jim Crow is over, and I know it because my parents grew up in it.”

Democrats were the party of Jim Crow, ironically. But now they scream “racism” whenever anyone points out that they are pushing an awful policy.

Democrats cheapen and exploit the suffering their predecessors caused for political reasons.

As Hunt said, “And I think it's actually insulting to those that actually experienced the ills of Jim Crow” to compare getting an ID to that era.

“Having an ID to vote in our national election should be a requirement, which is why I stand [here] today, urging my colleagues on the left to support this bill. If you want secure elections, if you want your vote to count, vote for the Save Act.”

Unfortunately, that’s precisely what Democrats don’t want.

This debate was never about IDs, or about black Americans’ access to IDs, or about constitutionality.

It was always about one political party believing in our Republic’s system of elections, and the other party hating our Republic’s system of government and believing they should decide who our leaders are instead of We the People.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 12:45

Iran Tried To Bring IRGC-Linked Individuals Into US With World Cup Delegation: Homeland Security Chief

Iran Tried To Bring IRGC-Linked Individuals Into US With World Cup Delegation: Homeland Security Chief

Via American Greatness,

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said Sunday that Iranian officials attempted to bring multiple individuals with alleged ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps into the United States as part of the country’s World Cup soccer delegation.

Mullin made the remarks during an interview with Fox News as U.S.-Iran negotiations were

U.S. officials subjected members of Iran’s traveling delegation to heightened scrutiny after President Donald Trump directed the Department of Homeland Security to conduct extensive vetting of individuals seeking entry into the country.

Mullin said more than half of the additional representatives Iran sought to bring into the United States had connections to the IRGC, which U.S. officials view as a hostile military organization.

“When we started doing the research on him, he had only been put in place since 2022, and we didn’t allow him to board the plane,” Mullin told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo on Sunday, referring to the individual who had ties with the IRGC.

“The guy that tried to get on the plane yesterday had direct ties to the IRGC,” Mullin .

“We accepted 53 individuals coming in and the rest of the individuals that Iran had tried to bring in all also had direct ties to the IRGC and aren’t their normal traveling group,” he said.

Mullin said that the Iranian official who attempted to enter the United States was, according to Tehran, the president of the country’s soccer federation, noting that the Iranian soccer team playing World Cup games is based in Tijuana, Mexico. The team flies from Mexico into the United States when they need to play games.

The secretary said the administration anticipated that Iran could attempt to use the World Cup delegation to gain access to the United States and took additional precautions as a result.

According to Mullin, Trump authorized what he described as extreme vetting measures to screen members of the Iranian contingent.

“These games that Iran plays makes them an adversary that you can’t trust,” Mullin said.

Mullin did not provide additional details about the individuals who were denied entry or the nature of their alleged ties to the IRGC.

The Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran called Mullin’s allegation “an outright lie.”

“The claim that an official representative of the Iranian football federation attempted to board a flight to enter the United States yesterday and was prevented from doing so is an outright and undeniable lie. This claim is so unfounded that those who made it are well aware that such an incident never occurred in the first place,” FFIRI said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 12:05

"DeepSeek Of The West" Reflection Inks Major Compute Deal With SpaceXAI

"DeepSeek Of The West" Reflection Inks Major Compute Deal With SpaceXAI

SpaceX shares tumbled for a third straight session, down around 9% late in the U.S. cash morning, after the Elon Musk-led company said it would sell investment-grade bonds for the first time.

However, a new headline crossed around 11:05 a.m. ET via Axios, reporting that Reflection, the Nvidia-backed open-source AI startup, had signed a major compute deal with SpaceXAI.

Under the deal, Reflection will pay SpaceXAI $150 million per month starting next Wednesday, July 1, through 2029, following an initial ramp period.

The deal gives the startup, founded by former Google DeepMind researchers Misha Laskin and Ioannis Antonoglou, access to Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell Ultra AI computing chip, also known as GB300, which is necessary to train its models.

Earlier this year, The Wall Street Journal described Reflection as the “DeepSeek of the West” because the AI lab aims to build open-weight, frontier-scale AI models as a direct alternative to China’s DeepSeek.

The deal highlights the circular flow of the AI boom, something we have noted countless times (see here and here). Nvidia invested $800 million in Reflection, which will now use Nvidia chips purchased by SpaceX. This allows the startup to avoid the multibillion-dollar burden of building out its own data centers and instead lease compute from hyperscalers.

With shares down 9% in late-morning trading, the Reflection-SpaceXAI deal was not enough to lift the stock, which is now down 25% from last Tuesday’s high of $225.

The Reflection-SpaceXAI deal also shows that SpaceX's massive compute buildout is not just for internal AI chatbots, but is also becoming a revenue-generating business, catering specifically to external AI frontier labs seeking high-end training capacity.

It may suggest that internal compute demand has been lackluster... 

Last week, Yann LeCun, founder of AMI Labs, called xAI a "failure," adding that he expects it won't be able to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic.

The deal follows a similar deal that Anthropic made with SpaceX to expand cloud computing capacity. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 11:45

Repairs To Reflecting Pool Will Begin Immediately, Trump Says, Citing Vandalism

Repairs To Reflecting Pool Will Begin Immediately, Trump Says, Citing Vandalism

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Sunday that work to repair the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington will begin immediately after it was damaged by vandalism.

The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool is refilled after it was repaired and repainting as part of President Donald Trump's “Make the District of Columbia Safe and Beautiful” initiative ahead of America's 250th anniversary in Washington on June 4, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The reflecting pool had been renovated ahead of the 250th anniversary of the country's Independence Day on July 4 under Trump's order, which included repainting its surface blue. But problems have emerged in recent days with algae blooming in the pool and peeling paint.

Trump said in a Truth Social post on June 21 that he inspected the pool and found it had been "seriously vandalized." He said the pool's condition left him wondering "who would do such a thing," adding that the damage will be fixed.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro told Fox News on Sunday that several citations have been issued to individuals accused of vandalizing the pool and warned that those responsible will be prosecuted to the fullest extent.

"Anyone who is in a position of vandalizing or attempting to vandalize ​the reflecting pool will face the criminal justice system in D.C.," she said. "The president has made it a priority to make D.C. not only safe, but beautiful."

Pirro also warned that anyone found to have poured products into the pool to generate algae could face more serious charges.

Trump said in a June 20 post that vandals destroyed the grass around the site and suggested some even poured "corrosive and destructive chemicals into the pool." He said the pool's water may need to be drained to allow repairs.

"They took some form of knife or blade, and put a 250 foot long gash into the beautiful facade of what took so much work, competence, and money to build and complete," he wrote.

Trump said authorities have made multiple arrests in connection with vandalism at the reflecting pool.

In a separate post on June 19, the president said that 75 percent of the algae in the reflecting pool had been removed and that the issue was expected to be fixed early the next week.

The reflecting pool stretches 2,030 feet long and 167 feet wide, with a depth of 30 inches at its center. Trump first announced in March that he was working with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to clean up the pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, which he said was "absolutely filthy" and should have been cleaned during the prior administration.

Trump also announced earlier this month that he plans to build a promenade connecting the Lincoln Memorial and the Potomac River. The Lincoln Memorial honors Abraham Lincoln, the 16th U.S. president, who led the ​United States through the Civil War. It sits at the western end of ⁠the National Mall overlooking the Reflecting Pool.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 11:05

Chevron Lands 20-Year Deal To Power Microsoft's AI Expansion

Chevron Lands 20-Year Deal To Power Microsoft's AI Expansion

Microsoft has signed a 20-year agreement with Chevron to power a massive new AI-focused data center campus in West Texas, underscoring the growing race among tech companies to secure reliable energy supplies, according to Bloomberg.

The project, known as Project Kilby, is expected to begin generating power in 2028 and eventually reach 2.67 gigawatts—enough electricity for more than 530,000 Texas homes.

Chevron is developing the project with Engine No. 1 and expects to make a final investment decision later this year. Despite the enormity of the deal and the inroads into powering AI directly, Chevron stock was little changed after the cash open:

Bloomberg writes that the site near Pecos, Texas, will use natural gas from the Permian Basin to fuel GE Vernova turbines and generate electricity directly for Microsoft's planned data center campus. Because the facility will produce its own power, it will not draw from the grid.

“Consumers are concerned about and are already feeling the effect of power-demand growth,” said Jeff Gustavson, Chevron’s president of New Energies. “We specifically designed this, in this part of the country, to avoid any of that.”

The agreement comes as Microsoft accelerates its AI infrastructure buildout to compete with Alphabet and Amazon. The company has said it plans to double its data center footprint over the next two years, driving demand for large-scale, dependable power sources.

Chevron argues the project also creates a productive use for abundant Permian natural gas that is often wasted because pipeline capacity is limited. “This is the most abundant gas basin in the country, maybe the world,” Gustavson said.

Chevron and Engine No. 1 have already secured orders for seven GE Vernova gas turbines. While Chevron has not disclosed the project's cost, people familiar with the matter previously estimated it at roughly $7 billion.

The deal reflects a broader trend across the U.S., where data center capacity is expected to double to 77 gigawatts by 2030. Texas alone has 33 gigawatts of planned data center power projects, the most of any state, highlighting how AI is reshaping energy demand and infrastructure investment.

At a higher level, the deal highlights a growing shift in how AI infrastructure is being financed and powered. Rather than relying solely on utilities and the existing grid, hyperscalers are increasingly partnering directly with energy producers to secure dedicated generation capacity. That model could accelerate data center development while reducing grid constraints, but it also raises questions about the long-term balance between AI-driven power demand, decarbonization goals, and energy affordability.

As we have constantly written about over the last 2 years, as AI becomes a larger share of electricity consumption, access to reliable power may emerge as a competitive advantage on par with access to chips and computing infrastructure.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 10:45

Diverging Markets And Converging Talks?

Diverging Markets And Converging Talks?

By Teeuwe Mevissen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Financial markets continue to navigate an increasingly complex macro landscape, defined by the interaction of geopolitical shocks, resurgent inflation pressures, and diverging central bank responses. The key theme remains the tension between resilient risk assets—particularly equities—and a more cautious signal emanating from fixed income markets. This divergence reflects a broader uncertainty about the persistence of inflation and the implications for monetary policy and economic growth.

Meanwhile Iranian and U.S. negotiators have concluded an initial round of high-level talks in Switzerland, with both sides reporting progress. They agreed on a roadmap aiming for a final peace deal within 60 days. Key outcomes include plans to establish a mechanism to de-escalate the conflict in Lebanon and to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A joint statement confirmed that further technical negotiations will continue, with some delegations staying in Switzerland. A high-level committee will oversee the next phase of discussions. Although the talks were initially tense—partly due to a social media post by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening Iran—both sides ultimately described the discussions as constructive, noting advances on multiple fronts. But it remains to be seen to what extent Iran and the US are truly converging on the more thorny issues.  

Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting saw the dropping of the easing bias narrative. The Fed held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, citing solid economic activity and still-elevated inflation pressures. At the same time, updated projections suggest only a gradual decline in inflation towards the 2% target, with core PCE inflation expected to remain above target through 2026. Importantly, the Fed acknowledged that inflation remains influenced by supply-side shocks, particularly energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. We expect two rate cuts in April and June next year. For more information you van find the post Fed comment from Philip Marey here.

In contrast, the European Central Bank has already shifted back into tightening mode, raising policy rates by 25 basis points earlier in June. The ECB explicitly cited the inflationary effects of the energy shock and revised its inflation projections upward, now expecting headline inflation to average 3.0% in 2026. At the same time, growth forecasts were revised down—highlighting the stagflationary trade-off facing policymakers.

The global macro backdrop continues to be dominated by developments in energy markets, which remain tightly linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The disruption to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year triggered a sharp spike in oil prices and significant supply dislocations, with global inventories declining at an accelerated pace. Although recent negotiations between the US and Iran have raised hopes of a partial normalization in energy flows, the adjustment process is expected to be gradual. Even under a favourable scenario, it could take months for oil production and shipping to return to pre-conflict levels.

This matters because the energy shock is transmitting broadly across the economy. Higher fuel costs are feeding into transportation, food, and industrial prices, raising headline inflation and increasing the risk of second-round effects. At the same time still elevated prices are starting to weigh on demand, with global oil consumption now projected to decline in 2026. In essence, the global economy is facing a classic adverse supply shock—one that pushes inflation higher while dampening real growth.

Despite the challenging macro backdrop, equity markets have shown remarkable resilience. US equities in particular continue to trade close to record highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and a powerful structural narrative around artificial intelligence. Earnings growth has been robust, with companies demonstrating greater pricing power than expected and benefiting from continued investment in AI-related capital expenditure. However, this strength comes with important caveats. Valuations seem elevated, and the market appears to be pricing a relatively benign macro outcome despite clear downside risks. The combination of high inflation, elevated bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainty suggests that equity markets may be underestimating the potential for volatility.

Government bond yields have risen materially. Recently long-end yields in advanced economies reached levels not seen in nearly two decades. Today rates stay close to levels seen last Friday with the10-year euro swap only 1 bp lower but still slightly above 3%. This reflects a combination of factors: Rising inflation expectations due to energy prices, increased term premia amid geopolitical uncertainty and a reassessment of central bank reaction functions The bond market’s message is clear: inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, and policy rates are likely to stay restrictive for longer than previously anticipated. This creates a challenging environment for duration assets and increases the risk of tighter financial conditions feeding back into the real economy.

In currency markets, divergence in monetary policy paths is becoming increasingly relevant. With the ECB tightening and the Fed on hold, relative rate dynamics could provide some support for the euro in the near term. However, this is counterbalanced by weaker growth prospects in the Eurozone and a higher vulnerability to energy shocks.

More broadly, cross-asset dynamics continue to be shaped by the interplay between inflation and growth expectations. The current environment is characterized by: Equity markets pricing resilience, Bond markets pricing persistent inflation and commodities reflecting geopolitical risk. This divergence suggests that markets have yet to converge on a coherent macro narrative.

Looking ahead, one of the key question for markets remains whether the current equilibrium—strong equities alongside high yields—can be sustained. Much will depend on three factors:

  1. Energy market developments: Any sustained easing of supply constraints could alleviate inflation pressures, while renewed disruptions would exacerbate them.
  2. Inflation dynamics: Evidence of second-round effects, particularly in wages and services, would likely force central banks into a more hawkish stance.
  3. Growth resilience: Signs of a sharper slowdown could trigger a reassessment across asset classes.

Finally, news just came in that Keir Starmer has resigned as prime minister and leader of the labour party. What this will mean for the future political landscape in the UK remains to be seen but it surely illustrates the current and ongoing political instability in the UK.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 10:25

Key Events This Week: Core PCE, Global PMIs, Micron Earnings And Fed Talk

Key Events This Week: Core PCE, Global PMIs, Micron Earnings And Fed Talk

The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Also focus will be on the UK where Keir Starmer announced his resignation earlier today and attention will turn on succession planning. 

After a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, DB economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast while Bank of America raised their forecast and now expect 3 hikes in 2026, reversing its prior no-change forecast on strong data and a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh. DB warns that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. 

In terms of the US week ahead, DB economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening.

Earlier that day, attention will center on the data flow. Economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data you can see in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual. 

Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others.

In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday. Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday).

Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side.  

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 22

  • Data: Eurozone June consumer confidence, Canada May CPI, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates
  • Central banks: Fed's Waller speaks, ECB's Lagarde and Kocher speak

Tuesday June 23

  • Data: US, UK, Japan, Eurozone, Germany and France June flash PMIs, US June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, France June business confidence, May retail sales, EU27 May new car registrations
  • Central banks: ECB's Lane and Vujcic speak, BoE’s Taylor and Dhingra speak
  • Earnings: FedEx, Cerebras, Carnival
  • Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Wednesday June 24

  • Data: US May new home sales, Q1 current account balance, Japan May PPI services, Germany June Ifo survey, Australia May CPI
  • Central banks: ECB's Nagel and Cipollone speak, BoJ's Himino speaks, BoJ summary of opinions (June MPM), BoE’s Breeden and Dhingra speak, BoC summary of deliberations
  • Earnings: Micron, Jefferies
  • Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
  • Other: Fed releases bank stress test results

Thursday June 25

  • Data: US May PCE, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, Chicago Fed national activity index, June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Germany July GfK consumer confidence, France June consumer confidence, Italy April industrial sales, Australia May labour force survey
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams and Goolsbee speak, ECB's Moulin, Lane and Cipollone speak, BoJ's Tamura speaks, ECB Economic Bulletin
  • Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Friday June 26

  • Data: US May advance goods trade balance, retail inventories, wholesale inventories, June Kansas City Fed services activity, JapanJune Tokyo CPI, Italy June consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, ECB May consumer expectations survey
  • Central banks: Fed's Kashkari speaks, ECB's Nagel and Vujcic speak

Turning just to the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the PCE inflation report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Waller and Presidents Williams, Goolsbee, and Kashkari.

Monday, June 22 

  • There are no major data releases scheduled. 
  • 09:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver opening remarks at the fifth conference on the International Roles of the US Dollar in Washington, DC. Speech text is expected. On May 22, Waller said that he is “prepared to be patient in holding policy at its current restrictive setting as we watch how the conflict evolves and what impact there is on inflation and inflation expectations.” He also noted that “if inflation expectations become unanchored, [he] would not hesitate to support an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, but at this point that action is premature.”

Tuesday, June 23 

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing index, June preliminary (consensus 54.6, last 55.1): S&P Global US services index, June preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 50.7) 

Wednesday, June 24 

  • 10:00 AM New home sales, May (GS +3.6%, consensus +3.2%, last -6.2%) 

Thursday, June 25 

  • 08:30 AM Personal income, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last flat); Personal spending, May (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Core PCE price index, May (GS +0.31%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), May (GS +3.38%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.3%); PCE price index, May (GS +0.45%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), May (GS +4.04%, consensus +4.1%, last +3.8%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, in May. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.31% in May, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.38%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.45% in May, or increased 4.04% from a year earlier. 
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 20 (GS 230k, consensus 225k, last 226k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 13 (consensus 1,805k, last 1,810k)
  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, May preliminary (GS -3.0%, consensus -5.0%, last +8.0%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May preliminary (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.1%); Core capital goods orders, May preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.6%, last -1.0%); Core capital goods shipments, May preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.4%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 3% in the preliminary May report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.3% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys in May—and a 0.3% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 third release (GS +1.6%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.6%); Personal consumption, Q1 third release (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.4%): We estimate no revision on net to Q1 GDP growth at +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). We expect unrevised consumer spending growth at +1.4%.
  • 03:40 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at the Crane Money Fund Symposium in New York City, NY. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 3, Williams said, “Monetary policy is exactly in the right place.” He also noted that he does not see “any need to raise or lower interest rates right now.”
  • 06:30 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will discuss the forces shaping monetary policy and what they mean for the American economy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Q&A is expected. On May 18, Goolsbee raised concerns about inflation and said, “We were making progress [on inflation], then we stalled, and now [the inflation problem] is getting worse.” On the labor market, he said, “The labor market might not be good, but it has been stable.”

Friday, June 26 

  • 08:30 AM Advanced goods trade balance, May (GS -$84.0bn, consensus -$85.0bn, last -$83.0bn); We estimate that the goods trade deficit widened slightly from $83.0bn in April to $84.0bn, reflecting a $16bn decline in gold exports that was largely offset by an increase in exports of energy goods.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June final (GS 49.5, consensus 50.0, last 48.9); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June final (GS 3.3%, last 3.4%)
  • 11:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a panel at the Aspen Ideas Festival. On May 29, Kashkari said, “I think it is premature to conclude we need to be raising rates right away.” He also noted, “We need to keep watching the data and watching how the conflict in the Middle East unfolds before we want to make any adjustment.”

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 10:15

Getty Images Soars After Securing "Display Agreement" With OpenAI

Getty Images Soars After Securing "Display Agreement" With OpenAI

Getty Images shares jumped 141% in New York premarket trading after the company announced a "display agreement" with OpenAI.

The timing could not have been better for Getty, whose stock had been languishing this year, down roughly 55% before the announcement.

For a company in need of a sentiment boost, the new partnership with OpenAI, which allows Getty content to be displayed in ChatGPT visual responses and gives users richer, higher-quality, properly licensed imagery, is reviving investor sentiment.

About 17% of Getty's float is short, with days to cover at around 4.6.

"The agreement enables the use of Getty Images' content for display within ChatGPT, enhancing the richness of visual responses," Getty wrote in a press release.

CEO Craig Peters stated, "High-quality, licensed visual content makes AI-powered search and discovery more useful and more trustworthy. This partnership with OpenAI reflects a shared recognition of that, and together we will deliver richer visual experiences to ChatGPT users."

Bloomberg noted, "Initially, Getty resisted the technology. It tried developing its own AI image generator and had sued Stability AI, a developer of another popular tool."

Getty's earnings in the first quarter fell short of sales expectations. The media company is still awaiting approval to acquire rival Shutterstock for $3.7 billion.

OpenAI has built a growing list of media and content deals, mostly around licensed content appearing in ChatGPT answers:

The OpenAI-Getty deal likely suggests that Sam Altman's chatbot company is trying to replace scraping/legal fights with paid licensing, attribution, and direct publisher integration.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:40

Russian Drone Strike Sets Turkish Cargo Ship Ablaze In Black Sea, Killing One

Russian Drone Strike Sets Turkish Cargo Ship Ablaze In Black Sea, Killing One

An international cargo vessel traversing the Black Sea erupted in flames when it was struck by a Russian drone attack early Monday morning, killing one crew member.

The Turkish-owned bulk carrier VICTRESS, which sails under a Panamanian flag, suffered severe damage, the Ukrainian Navy and the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) confirmed in the aftermath.

Ukrainian naval image of Turkish vessel up in flames.

A maritime rescue operation ensued fairly quickly, with most of the crew evacuated safely to a life raft; however, a 58-year old crew member perished.

“Sadly, a member of the crew died. We extend our sincere condolences to his family and loved ones. The remaining eight sailors were evacuated on a life raft,” the USPA said.

Such Black Sea deadly drone incidents against foreign vessels off Ukraine are on the uptick. For example just a couple days ago regional sources reported:

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones targeted two civilian merchant vessels in the Black Sea, one flying Panama’s flag and the other St. Kitts and Nevis’. A sailor aboard the Panama-flagged ship was killed, two were injured—one critically—while three crew on the St. Kitts and Nevis vessel sustained minor injuries. Both ships resumed their voyages after receiving assistance, but the incident underscores the vulnerability of civilian shipping in contested waters.

 Black Sea transit continues to be a dangerous prospect, also with naval mines long being a feature of the 4+ year long war.

Because of this, international reports have frequently noted at various moments of the last couple years, "War insurance costs for ships sailing to the Black Sea have spiked again, with insurers reviewing policies daily as the conflict in Ukraine spills into sea lanes."

But the attacks have gone the other way too, with Ukraine's Navy at various times having intercepted or attacked vessels deemed part of Russia's sanctions-evading 'dark fleet'.

After some of these recent attacks on Russia-importing or exporting vessels, President Putin vowed to step up punishing aerial attacks on Ukraine. The two sides are still locked in a devastating tit-for-tat aerial war.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 06:55

Is The AI Spending Boom Creating A Depreciation Time Bomb?

Is The AI Spending Boom Creating A Depreciation Time Bomb?

Via City AM,

  • Big Tech's AI spending has exploded, with Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta collectively investing hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure.

  • Rapid technological change may shorten the economic life of AI servers and GPUs, increasing depreciation and replacement costs.

  • The long-term profitability of AI will depend not only on demand growth but also on whether companies can justify the enormous ongoing capital requirements.

The eye-watering capital expenditure plans of Big Tech has been one of the year’s biggest stories. 

Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft have all splurged to secure a podium spot in the race to build out the infrastructure that will run the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.

Total capex by these four firms is expected to reach $750bn (£560bn) this year, around half the annual spending of the entire UK government. It is much higher than this high-tech quartet has budgeted for before. And it is expected to be even higher next year.

Shareholders are on board with the plan, up to a point.

Since 2023, the average share price across the four firms has doubled. But that hasn’t kept pace with the average quarterly capex budgets, which have roughly quadrupled over the same period.

These trillion-dollar businesses can’t be too far away from hitting a ceiling on growing their computing power. 

Firstly, because of physical constraints – things like the supply of chips and the availability of power and water infrastructure – with the latter beginning to come under genuine constraint in some parts of the developed world.

Secondly, because of the sheer build cost, given that most AI projects are far from hitting profitability, and there isn’t enough cash flow elsewhere to fill the hole.

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, has raised $85bn on its own in debt over the past year. It plans to raise another $80bn in equity over the coming months – an unprecedented fundraise and not something it can keep doing forever.

Getting older faster

Most of the focus has been on data centre build-out. But there is also another major factor, and one in danger of being overlooked: maintenance.

The cost of keeping AI running once the infrastructure is in place will be vital. 

Data centre servers tend to last in the region of three to six years before they have to be replaced.  Given the speed of innovation and intensity of compute needed for AI, you can expect that to skew towards the lower end of the range for the hyperscalers. 

The kit inside AI data centres accounts for as much as two-thirds of the build cost. Add replacement costs onto the capex projections over the next few years, and things start to look scarily expensive.

Annual depreciation of property and equipment across the four firms has almost doubled over the past two years to $116bn.  You can expect that to accelerate, given how much equipment has been added to their balance sheets over the past 18 months.

Last year, Amazon cut the expected useful life of its data centre assets from six years to five, a move which it said was “due to the increased pace of technology development, particularly in the area of artificial intelligence and machine learning.” 

So far, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet have yet to follow suit, sticking with six years, but it seems like only a matter of time before they capitulate and cut this back, pushing up depreciation costs even further.

Something has got to give – sooner or later. Or am I missing something?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 06:30

UK Government Plans To Force Social Media Giants To Boost BBC Content To 'Fight Disinformation'

UK Government Plans To Force Social Media Giants To Boost BBC Content To 'Fight Disinformation'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The UK government, under the apparently outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is advancing proposals that would require platforms like Facebook, YouTube and others to make BBC and other public service broadcaster content more prominent in users' feeds.

Officials frame the move as essential to combat 'disinformation,' citing Ofcom data that social media serves as the main news source for 51% of adults and 75% of 16- to 24-year-olds.

Yes, they want to turn social media into a literal Ministry of Truth.

The plans form part of wider efforts to further restrict private media firms and follow directly on the heels of the controversial under-16s social media ban that has already strained relations with tech companies.

Public reaction has been swift and scathing. Journalist Allison Pearson did not hold back on the BBC's own record:

Author and commentator Bernie drew a pointed historical parallel:

"In 1933, Goebbels argued that Germans needed protection from false information and dangerous ideas. In 2026, Starmer says that British people need protection from 'disinformation' and that social media platforms should prioritise BBC and state approved broadcaster content. The comparison is NOT that Britain is Nazi Germany. That is a lazy argument. The comparison is that Starmer's government is pushing for more control over what citizens read, watch and think and that they claim it's for our own good. You are not free if the State decided what news you are allowed to view. This is not the work of a government supporting democracy but one that Doesn't trust its citizens to keep them in power."

Reform UK supporter Chris Rose highlighted the core irony:

This UK initiative does not stand alone. Similar moves are advancing in lockstep across the continent as governments seek greater leverage over information flows.

Germany has pursued measures to force social media platforms to boost state-aligned content and sideline dissenting material under the banner of 'public value.'

The EU's Democracy Shield framework has drawn sharp criticism as a vehicle for mass censorship that effectively ends open discourse under the guise of protecting democracy.

In France, President Macron has pushed aggressive censorship proposals widely described as a Ministry of Truth power grab.

The pattern is unmistakable: governments leveraging regulatory power to privilege official or state-funded sources while algorithmically demoting alternatives.

The BBC prioritization scheme fits into a rapid succession of UK measures that collectively tighten state influence over digital space and public narrative.

The under-16s social media ban has been exposed as a monumental pretext for total digital surveillance infrastructure.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov warned that the policy represents the digital iceberg that could sink the free internet.

Separate reporting revealed the UK government maintains a dedicated 'thought police' unit aimed at controlling the mass migration narrative.

Further proposals would empower authorities to block 'false information' during crisis events, creating an official Ministry of Truth mechanism.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan has separately called for a government social media disinformation unit, adding another layer of official narrative enforcement.

Advocates insist elevating BBC content will help users encounter more 'reliable' information. The claim collapses under even cursory examination of the broadcaster's recent track record.

The BBC has repeatedly been accused of sinking to new lows on accuracy and impartiality.

Its former news director stated that trans bias and progressive orthodoxy drove her departure.

Additional controversies include a high-profile fake news editing scandal that prompted a $10 billion lawsuit from President Trump.

Further examples involve portrayals of Islamic child slavery in Afghanistan as somehow necessary, biased handling of Islamist issues in Britain, and presenter conduct that drew sharp rebukes from figures like John Cleese.

Public sentiment on X reflects deep skepticism that the state broadcaster represents a credible bulwark against disinformation.

For now, there is a simple solution.

Of course, the government could, via it's regulator Ofcom, simply mandate that these sources cannot be blocked and must be injected into people's feeds. They could also employ a more subtle manipulation of the algorithm to ensure it happens, regardless of any blocking.

Mandating algorithmic favoritism for any single outlet, especially one with the BBC's baggage, will not restore trust. Alternative platforms continue to grow, and Community Notes-style transparency tools already expose manipulation faster than official gatekeepers can suppress it.

Governments that distrust citizens to navigate information without state curation reveal more about their own insecurities than about any genuine disinformation crisis.

The free exchange of ideas, even uncomfortable ones, remains the only proven defense against real propaganda.

These latest European and British maneuvers represent the opposite impulse: centralized narrative control dressed up as public protection.

Citizens on both sides of the Atlantic have seen this playbook before and are increasingly unwilling to play along.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 05:00

Massive 2,000-Year-Old Luxurious Roman Bathhouse Uncovered In The Netherlands

Massive 2,000-Year-Old Luxurious Roman Bathhouse Uncovered In The Netherlands

Authored by Maria Mocerino via Interesting Engineering,

The largest Roman bathhouse complex ever discovered in the Netherlands has surfaced, shedding new light on the wealth and importance of the ancient Roman city of Ulpia Noviomagus.

Roman bathhouse complex.Nijmegen

Researchers from the archaeological firms RAAP and BAAC were conducting routine investigations in Nijmegen's Waalfront district, a site slated for new residential development. The excavation, which began in September of last year and will conclude in July, uncovered a public bathhouse, residential blocks, luxury townhouses, streets, and a tower dating back nearly 2,000 years.

"For years, the traces of the Roman past at this location were invisible, hidden deep underground. Now that we are realizing a new living environment here, the past has become visible," said Joost Mulder, BPD's Regional Director for the North-East & Central region, in a press release.

The bathhouse complex, or thermae, covered at least 4,900 square meters, making it the second-largest excavated Roman public bath complex in the Netherlands. Despite centuries of stone removal and reuse following the Roman period, parts of the structure remain exceptionally well-preserved.

Roman history unearthed

The size of the complex reflects the importance of Ulpia Noviomagus - the Roman city that once stood here - which is believed to have received its official status from Emperor Trajan around 100 AD. The discoveries suggest that this area of the city remained active well into the third century AD.

The bathhouse was richly decorated. Its interior walls were clad in marble. The floors were laid with black-and-white limestone tiles. Other rooms featured colorful, painted plaster. Decorative limestone and sandstone moldings adorned the building's facades, while columns made from the same materials enhanced its splendor.

Archaeologists also uncovered extensive drainage systems, flooring, and a hypocaust - a sophisticated Roman underfloor heating system supported by brick pillars. This technology circulated hot air beneath a raised floor, as per Archaeology News. Two stone foundations survive to a height of nearly two meters, making them some of the best-preserved examples of Roman masonry in Nijmegen.

Tens of thousands of artifacts recovered from the site point to the affluent lifestyle that residents enjoyed during the second and third centuries AD.

Among the discoveries are bronze statue fragments, signet rings, a necklace with a gold clasp, coins, and hundreds of bone hairpins used in elaborate Roman hairstyles. Notably, two of the hairpins featured remarkable carvings of cats - one seated and one standing.

However, a bronze bust depicting Bacchus, the Roman god of wine, stood out the most to archaeologists. They believe the object originally formed part of a pitcher or a piece of furniture before later being adapted for use on a weighing scale.

Archaeologists also recovered numerous coins from the reign of Emperor Postumus, who ruled between 260 and 269 AD, providing rare evidence of continued occupation during a relatively poorly documented period.

Integrating the past into the future

Developers and city officials plan to integrate the site's Roman heritage into the future neighborhood, added Archaeology News.

"The link to the past will remain visible in the future as well. For instance, a number of residential buildings will feature a covered walking area with rows of columns. A colonnade just like in Roman times. And developers plan to call the green square in the heart of the area, inspired by the floor plan of the bathhouse complex, Thermenplein. A direct reference to the Roman meeting place that was here some 2,000 years ago," concludes the press release.

Roman bone hairpins found in Nijmegen. Credit: Municipality of Nijmegen / BAAC / RAAP Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 03:30

Fuel Sales Abruptly Halted For Crimean Population As Ukrainian Drones Wreak Havoc

Fuel Sales Abruptly Halted For Crimean Population As Ukrainian Drones Wreak Havoc

A wave of relentless Sunday drone attacks out of Ukraine on Crimea has resulted in a regional cut off to civilian access to fuel, in another sign that UAV attacks on Russian territory are having serious effect.

Four people were killed in the series of drone strikes on energy and transport infrastructure in the Russian-controlled peninsula, including attacks near Kerch, a key eastern Crimean port city which is a major energy logistics hub.

Reuters/BBC: "Cars queue at a petrol station on the peninsula in early June amid already restricted fuel sales."

"As a result of the enemy's drone attack on the Kerch Peninsula, unfortunately, there are casualties among the civilian population," Crimean Governor Sergey Aksyonov announced.

"According to the latest information, four people were killed, 28 were wounded," he added.

And he also confirmed the fuel crisis for the whole region, saying, "Today, June 21, starting from 09:00 am, fuel sales at Crimean petrol stations have been suspended" - though he added that fuel would only be sold to state enterprises.

He made clear in a Telegram post that starting Sunday morning local time gas stations across the peninsula would stop selling fuel to individuals and businesses. All cash, card and fuel coupons were immediately halted.

Ukraine's President Zelensky boasted of the attacks, stating on social media that "Facilities on both sides of the Crimean Bridge were hit: maritime logistics used to transport oil in the Krasnodar region and an oil depot in temporarily occupied Kerch."

"In addition, military logistics facilities were successfully struck, along with four radar stations belonging to S-400 systems and two Pantsir systems," he wrote.

Crimean governor Aksyonov had also announced that "Further decisions regarding the current situation in the republic's fuel market will be announced at a later date."

BBC has separately reported that Kiev "hit a logistics facility for oil transportation in Russia's Krasnodar region, which lies adjacent to Crimea across the Kerch Strait. Local authorities said one person had been killed on a passenger ferry."

Saturday saw a long-range Ukrainian drone attack on an oil refinery in Russia's Tyumen region, which lies over 1,200 miles from the front lines of fighting - a significant reach and first of the war. It demonstrates that Russian anti-air defenses have struggled to intercept small, low-flying UAVs. Hundreds were sent against Crimea on Sunday.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 02:45

This Is The Funniest Thing Ever...

This Is The Funniest Thing Ever...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Leftists in the EU who spent years blocking real border enforcement are now whining about a victory party after conservatives pushed through a motion to create powerful tools to remove illegal migrants.

The chamber could not stop laughing. A 'Renew Europe' MEP aligned with French President Emmanuel Macron stood up and demanded punishment for conservative MEPs who gathered on the European Parliament roof, drank heavily, and celebrated the passage of the bloc's toughest-ever deportation reforms.

The presiding officer brushed it off and The room roared with amusement.

This outburst came days after the European Parliament voted 418 to 218, with 30 abstentions, to approve the new Return Regulation.

Conservative and sovereignist MEPs from the EPP, ECR, Patriots for Europe, and Europe of Sovereign Nations groups supplied the decisive majority.

The measure updates the hopelessly outdated 2008 rules and gives member states real power to enforce removals.

In our earlier video we highlighted the immediate leftist reaction inside the chamber: chants of 'Shame on you' from leftists with chants of 'Send them back' in response from conservatives.

Now they are complaining about a rooftop toast. The contrast could not be clearer. One side delivers results for citizens who have endured years of unchecked arrivals, crime, and welfare strain. The other side throws procedural tantrums and pretends a private celebration violates parliamentary decorum.

The regulation makes deportation orders issued in one member state valid across the entire EU.

It extends maximum detention periods for those who refuse to leave, removes automatic suspensive effect on appeals in many cases, doubles entry bans to ten years (lifetime for security threats), and allows member states to conclude agreements with third countries for 'return hubs' where rejected migrants can be processed and removed without remaining inside EU territory.

Non-cooperating origin countries face visa restrictions, aid cuts, and trade measures - the same leverage the Trump administration successfully deployed.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni welcomed the outcome as validation of the model she pioneered with Albania.

'We promised Italians we would change Europe, and we did it, with courage, patience, and determination,' she said.

Meloni added, 'This innovative solution has been resisted at every turn by the Italian and European left, but thanks to this government, it has now become a tool available to the whole of Europe.'

MEP Marieke Ehlers of the Patriots for Europe group stated 'This regulation puts the obligation exactly where it belongs: on the illegal migrant... The days of pampering are over. You have no right to stay, which means you have one simple obligation: pack your bags and leave our territory.'

She added that the text hands real power back to national capitals: 'We are taking back control... Almost all provisions give Member States the freedom to go further.'

French EPP negotiator François-Xavier Bellamy called it the end of decades of failure. 'After decades of failure and years of deadlock, Europe is ending its powerlessness in the face of illegal immigration. No one can claim any longer that Europe has no tools to act. The rules are now in place. The responsibility lies with governments to use them.'

French President Emmanuel Macron quickly distanced himself at the EU summit in Brussels. He declared that France would neither participate in nor fund third-country return hubs, calling the approach ineffective and contrary to French principles.

The same Macron who lectures others on European values now refuses to use the very instruments his own parliament helped create. The gap between rhetoric and reality on migration has never been wider.

Globalist pushback has already been initiated as the United Nations voiced concerns that the new return hubs could violate human rights standards.

Critics on the left and in international organisations frame any effective removal policy as inherently cruel, even as European cities continue to absorb the costs of failed integration and repeated criminal acts by rejected or illegal migrants.

For years globalist voices insisted that mass low-skilled migration was inevitable, economically necessary, and morally superior.

They dismantled internal borders, expanded asylum loopholes, and attacked any leader who tried to enforce existing law. Return rates stayed dismal. Criminal networks thrived. Public trust collapsed.

Conservative MEPs simply used their growing numbers to force an update that reflects what citizens have demanded for a decade.

The left's response - procedural complaints, accusations of misconduct over a private celebration, and renewed warnings from the UN - reveals the same refusal to accept democratic outcomes that has defined the migration debate from the start.

The laughter in the chamber was not just amusement at a thin-skinned complaint. It was recognition that the excuses have run out.

Europe now possesses the legal tools to remove those with no right to remain. Whether national governments use them remains to be seen, but the parliamentary majority has shifted decisively toward enforcement.

The same forces that once sneered at 'Send them back' as fringe bigotry are watching their own colleagues chant it on the floor. The Overton window did not shift incidentally. It moved because voters across the continent grew tired of policies that prioritised arrivals over safety and sovereignty.

Europe's conservative MEPs just proved that when they coordinate, they can deliver. The left can keep filing ethics complaints about rooftop drinks. The rest of the continent is focused on results.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 02:00

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