Zero Hedge

Korea "Black Monday": Kospi Halted For 20 Minutes After Crashing Almost 10%

Korea "Black Monday": Kospi Halted For 20 Minutes After Crashing Almost 10%

After the close on Friday, we said that on Monday, Korean stocks would be a "bundle of joy"...

... and that appears to be playing out in early Asian trading, as the Kospi index crashed 8.8% just after the open, taking the key index's decline from its recent peak to nearly 17%, poised to enter a technical correction and on pace for an outright bear market (20% drop from highs) should the local plunge protection team fail to stem the collapse.

Memory maker Samsung Electronics fell as much as 11% while peer SK Hynix Inc. slid 10%.

Since these two stocks account for virtually all the recent upside in Korean stocks, levered retail investors - who were buying everything foreign investors had to sell after a record stretch of 21 days of non-stop selling... 

... are having a very bad day. 

The sudden plunge triggered a circuit breaker, halting trading for 20 minutes.  The Korea Exchange held an emergency meeting Monday to assess rising volatility and discuss measures to ensure stable market operations.

What is perhaps most shocking about this move (aside from being notably more of an extension of Friday's losses in EWY in the US session - and not just catch down - is that it comes as SK Hynix and Nvidia announced a multi-year technology partnership to advance next-generation memory for the global AI factory buildout and accelerate semiconductor design and manufacturing.

Something that would typically trigger all kinds of circular panic bids as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says: “Together, we will co-develop the next generation of memory for AI factories and support the accelerating global expansion of AI infrastructure — from frontier model training to agentic and physical AI.”

Concerns over overheating in the AI rally combined with uncertainty in the macro environment have taken some steam out of global tech stocks over the past few sessions. Korea is seeing outsized losses after its world-beating gains, with the Kospi still up 77% since the start of the year.

As we pointed out most recently last Thursday just as the Kospi hit its all time high, foreign investors have been fleeing, selling more than $10 billion worth of Kospi shares on a net basis last week alone.

That’s put pressure on the won, with the currency touching its weakest level against the dollar since March 2009.   

We warned Friday that market breadth is the central worry. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, enjoying AI-driven chip demand, account for 54% of the Kospi’s market weight and roughly half of the gauge’s average daily turnover in May, according to Korea Exchange data. Nearly three-quarters of its gains this year have come from the two firms.

When the benchmark hit a record on Tuesday, only 2.6% of stocks reached 52‑week highs while 31% slid to 52‑week lows

Single‑stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung and SK Hynix are adding to concerns.

The four most popular single-stock ETFs accounted for 21% of the total ETF turnover in South Korea in their first five sessions after launching May 27, exchange data show.

“The current market structure is vulnerable to a downturn as it’s dominated by the short gamma in the leveraged ETFs,” said Kenny Kim, chief executive officer at Meridian One Asset Management.

“The setup requires investors to chase rallies with heavy buying when the market rises, but forces them to dump shares when the market falls.”

Retail investors, once key drivers, are showing less willingness to commit fresh cash. Brokerage deposits fell to 121 trillion won ($79 billion) by May 22 from 137 trillion won on May 12, according to the Korea Financial Investment Association.

Meanwhile, margin balance hit a record 38 trillion won on May 29, up from 27.3 trillion won at end-2025, KFIA data show.

Rising margin loans alone may indicate heightened interest. But the increase, while investor deposits fall, may point to more leverage stress without fresh appetite to take on risk, according to Shawn Oh, an equity sales trader at NH Investment & Securities.

“The signal is clear: the cash buffer eroding while active leverage refuses to unwind,” he added.

The South Korean market faces risk of a “Black Monday” event with “currency instability, interest-rate repricing and profit taking in semiconductors all happening at the same time,” said Kim Doo-un, an analyst at Hana Securities.

The government on Sunday laid out a series of targeted measures to try and bolster the won, pledging firm action against speculative trading and other activities. The moves come as policymakers across Asia step up efforts to support their currencies amid rising energy costs and a stronger dollar stemming from the Iran war.

There is a silver lining for some as Korea's loss is crypto's gain...

...for now.

Finally there is one potentially 'existential' threat to the 'semis shortage' narrative that is circulating one some desks tonight.

Google has published a paper in which researchers claim to have redone the entire 'Transformer' process within the LLM framework, which uses caching instead of constantly compounding memory (which has been the source of screaming demand)...

Bottom line, if this becomes the norm, the multi-digit returns on Semi stocks (forecast on the back of the belief in seemingly endlessly higher prices and demand) are dead in the water.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 20:36

Sam Altman Pushes Plan For Backdoor Government Backstop By Handing Out Small Equity Stake To Americans

Sam Altman Pushes Plan For Backdoor Government Backstop By Handing Out Small Equity Stake To Americans

Back in November, amid mounting speculation that OpenAI's massive cash burn was massively unsustainable in light of the $1.4 trillion of funding commitments by the AI company, which in turn has sparked the biggest capex flood in modern history all on the hope that the company's promised payments will be made good, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar sparked a market selloff when amid an admission that OpenAI was “looking for an ecosystem of banks [and] private equity” to support its ambitious plans, she explicitly said that the US government would have to “backstop the guarantee that allows the financing to happen." 

In other words, as we explained at the time, when all the other sources of funds dried up - clearly a scenario the company is considering judging by her response - the company would have to come to the US taxpayer.

Friar further explained that "Federal loan guarantees would really drop the cost of the financing," enabling OpenAI and its investors to borrow more money at lower rates to meet the company's ambitious targets. Right... because there is nothing like a company with $14BN in revenue, $1 trillion in "valuation" and $1.4 trillion in commitments, than loading up to the gills with government-backstopped debt... if only Enron and Lehman had thought to do the same, both would still be around.

Anyway, after the market vividly demonstrated it was less than enthused by this proposal, sending shares in the AI sector sharply lower as it signaled OpenAI itself doubted it would have the financial wherewithal to meet its obligations, the company promptly shelved any discussion of a taxpayer bailout backstop Federal loan guarantee, and even prompted a rare tweet from Sam Altman to explain why Sarah didn't really mean the things she said. 

All that changed late last week, when Donald Trump caught much of the AI industry by surprise when he threw his weight behind a radical proposal for companies such as OpenAI to hand equity stakes to the American people.

Elements of the idea, which had started as a fringe argument on the progressive left, have recently drawn support from an unlikely cast of characters including Trump cabinet members, democratic socialists such as Bernie Sanders and Maga populists such as Steve Bannon.

But the concept suddenly gained more traction in the White House when - six months after OpenAI first flirted with the idea of a backstop - OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman visited Capitol Hill this week.

According to the FT, the plan proposed by his company, alongside others, would involve setting up a sovereign-wealth-style fund into which AI companies would contribute equity so the American public can share in the lossmaking sector’s soaring valuations. What was left unsaid is that while the "American public" would share in the soaring valuations, they would also share in the AI sector's continued losses and, more importantly, would be on the hook for the hundreds of billions in commitments if OpenAI is unable to fund them.

Translation: OpenAI - which reportedly is worth just shy of $1 trillion on pre-IPO paper, is once again seeking a government bailout, pardon, backstop. 

Such a plan would be distinct from the $9bn stake the Trump administration took in chipmaker Intel last year, as the public would own shares individually, rather than the US government directly owning equity, according to a person with knowledge of OpenAI’s plans.

In response to a question about equity stakes on Air Force One on Friday, Trump suggested “pieces [of AI companies] could be given to the American public” in an effort to quell the growing alarm around the rapid rollout of the technology. As if the American public can somehow sell its shares of OpenAI to offset soaring electricity prices. 

Industry sources told the FT that a voluntary contribution of small amounts of equity — led by OpenAI — was the most likely outcome. This would be used to build a fund that is distributed to Americans, similar to the scheme Alaska has for redistributing oil revenues.

Brad Gerstner, a large investor in Anthropic and OpenAI, said on Friday he was “encouraging founders/companies to donate shares for the direct benefit of all citizens” and that this could filter through to Americans via a previously established plan for the Trump administration to put $1,000 in an investment account for every child born between 2025 and 2028.

According to the FT, OpenAI - which has a philanthropic arm sitting on more than $200bn in largely undisbursed funds - has floated the idea of giving the government a stake in the company with administration officials in recent months. 

In a paper published in April, OpenAI proposed that policymakers and AI companies work together to seed a “Public Wealth Fund that provides every citizen - including those not invested in financial markets - with a stake in AI-driven economic growth”. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has shown interest in similar proposals, according to a person familiar with the matter.

However, some White House officials and OpenAI rivals, including Anthropic, were caught by surprise by Trump’s Friday announcement. Altman had no plans to be in Washington next week, according to a person close to the discussions, despite Trump announcing a White House meeting with AI bosses for the coming week.

A person close to Anthropic, which the US government has designated as a “supply-chain risk”, said the company was not having conversations with the administration about providing equity to the government, suggesting that Antrhopic's cash burn is now ostensibly far less than that of OpenAI. After all, who voluntarily cedes equity in their venture unless they want something in return. 

Which brings us to the next question: Why is this happening now?

The idea of public ownership of AI companies had been gaining traction on the progressive left for some weeks and was supercharged by an intervention from Sanders, the Vermont senator, in the past few days. Sanders proposed a one-off 50% tax raid on AI labs.

His proposal has won qualified support from some on the populist right, including Bannon, Trump’s former chief of staff, who has long railed against the power of AI companies. Strategists from the Democratic and Republican parties are simultaneously grappling with how to appease voters increasingly worried about the threat AI poses to jobs ahead of November’s elections, not to mention AI's relentless impact on higher electricity prices, which is rapidly becoming one of the top political topics into the midterms. 

OpenAI’s Altman was in Washington this week, where he met Sanders and other lawmakers from both political parties. He did not discuss these proposals with Trump this week, according to media reports.

Sam Altman exiting Bernie Sanders' office.

His company, valued at close to $1tn, is likely to go public soon, while Anthropic and Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which owns xAI, are also racing to the public markets. This prompted us to ask, tongue-in-cheek, if the OpenAI taxpayer bailout would come before the IPO, or after.

Is there any precedent?

The Trump administration has broken with economic orthodoxy by aggressively pursuing equity stakes in key sectors as part of an America First industrial strategy. Last year, it spent $9bn taking a 10 per cent stake in Intel and has invested billions of dollars in rare-earths and quantum computing start-ups in exchange for stock.

However, there is certainly no precedent whatsoever for the government taking a stake in lossmaking AI labs collectively worth trillions of dollars (based on laughable hockeystick projections which assume China will never be able to undercut prevailing pricing models). Additionally, the Intel equity was bought using funds already appropriated by the Biden-era Chips Act. Buying a stake in leading AI companies, rather than accepting a donation, would be expensive and probably require approval from Congress.

Will there be a backlash?

The initial response from pro-business Republicans and AI investors has been muted. In a post before Trump’s comments, billionaire Silicon Valley investor and White House adviser David Sacks warned against the government assuming “direct ownership and control” of AI companies - a post that was endorsed by Republican senator Ted Cruz.

If the Trump administration did go for equity stakes in leading labs, the backlash would be even more widespread, said Samuel Hammond, director of AI policy at the pro-tech Foundation for American Innovation, with protests from investors and companies that were not cut in on the deal.

“Even if taking partial ownership of frontier AI companies can make sense on paper, in practice it’s a recipe for political favouritism and corruption,” he added. 

Sacks, who was previously Trump’s AI tsar and was one of the most accelerationist voices in the administration, left his role this year. His lieutenant Sriram Krishnan announced on Saturday that he would be leaving the Trump administration at the end of this month.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 20:25

A "Black Mark" On Tim Cook's Resume: How Apple Missed The AI Revolution

A "Black Mark" On Tim Cook's Resume: How Apple Missed The AI Revolution

Apple's AI problems didn't become impossible to ignore because competitors released better chatbots. They became impossible to ignore when Apple itself realized it had fallen behind, according to a new feature by Bloomberg

By early 2025, senior leaders inside the company were holding emergency-level discussions about the state of Apple's AI efforts. What was supposed to be a major leap forward—Apple Intelligence and a next-generation Siri—had instead exposed deeper weaknesses. While Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, and Anthropic were rapidly improving their models, Apple was struggling to deliver features it had already announced.

Bloomberg writes that the issue wasn't simply that Siri needed work. Executives increasingly believed Apple had underestimated the importance of generative AI altogether. The company had spent years assuming its traditional strengths—hardware, privacy, and tightly integrated software—would be enough. By the time ChatGPT reshaped expectations for consumer AI, Apple had no competitive answer.

Internally, confidence in the existing AI organization had eroded. Leaders concluded that the company's problems were structural as much as technical. Decision-making was fragmented, ownership was unclear, and AI lacked the urgency that surrounded other major Apple initiatives. What had once been viewed as a side technology suddenly looked like the foundation of the industry's future.

That realization triggered a leadership shake-up. Mike Rockwell, best known for leading Vision Pro, emerged as one of the strongest advocates for a more aggressive AI strategy. He had long argued that Apple was not taking the technology seriously enough. When the company's AI shortcomings became impossible to ignore, he was brought in to help rescue Siri and reset the effort.

The shift also forced a change in Tim Cook's approach. Historically, Cook delegated product strategy to his lieutenants, stepping in mainly for reviews and major decisions. AI became an exception. After the disappointing rollout of Apple Intelligence, Cook reportedly became far more involved, pushing executives to move faster and treating AI as a top corporate priority rather than another software feature.

Bloomberg even called Apple Intelligence 1.0 a "black mark" on the resume of Tim Cook. 

Perhaps the clearest sign of Apple's miscalculation is how dramatically its position has changed. The company initially downplayed the importance of chatbot-style assistants and generative AI products. Now it is preparing to launch a more conversational Siri and AI experiences that look much closer to what competitors have already been offering for years. Apple once argued that many of these products weren't necessary; now it is racing to build them.

The consequences extend beyond software. Several future hardware projects have reportedly been delayed because Apple's AI capabilities weren't ready. Devices that depended on intelligent assistants, computer vision, or advanced AI interactions could not move forward without the underlying technology.

What makes the situation unusual is that Apple rarely finds itself reacting to industry trends rather than defining them. The company built its reputation by anticipating shifts in computing before everyone else. With generative AI, it appears to have done the opposite. Instead of leading the transition, Apple spent years underestimating it and is now trying to catch up.

The real story isn't the launch of a new Siri. It's that Apple spent decades shaping the future of consumer technology, only to discover that the next major platform shift had started without it.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 19:15

Trump Admin Announces $850MM To Modernize US Coal Capacity, Build 2 New Plants

Trump Admin Announces $850MM To Modernize US Coal Capacity, Build 2 New Plants

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive

The Trump administration approved 76 coal-related permits in more than a year of efforts to revive the flagging fuel and execute an agenda of “energy dominance.” His latest attempt includes tapping Defense Production Act funding to expand the industry.

“Last year we prevented 17 GW of coal-powered electricity from going offline. That’s enough power for about 13 million homes, and at a very low price. It’s the lowest price,” Trump said of coal resources.

But critics say the opposite is true. “This move, along with the President blocking the retirement of old coal plants that are too costly to operate, is making most Americans poorer,” Jenkins said. “This is a total misuse of the Defense Production Act, a giant giftwrapped payout to subsidize and prop up a flailing industry that can no longer compete in the free market.”

The coal funding is “another example of Trump ignoring the affordability crisis,” Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s energy program, said in a statement. “Abusing emergency authorities to justify subsidies for coal is a waste of taxpayer dollars and a clear giveaway to an absurdly outdated, expensive and dirty fossil fuel.”

DOE said it plans to use up to $425 million in Defense Production Act Title III funds to support a dozen coal-plant projects and $75 million for the West Gateway Terminal Project, to operate a rail-served marine export terminal. The coal projects include:

  • $19 million for Arizona Electric Power Cooperative to modernize and extend the operating life the Apache Generating Station near Cochise, Arizona;
  • $33 million for Duke Energy Kentucky to boost generating capacity at its East Bend Station in Boone County, Kentucky;
  • $22.5 million for Oklahoma Gas and Electric’s Sooner DCS Modernization Project near Red Rock, Oklahoma, to modernize the facility’s distributed control system to maintain reliability and improve efficiency; and,
  • $46.3 million for Tennessee Valley Authority to revitalize its Cumberland Fossil Plant in Stewart County, Tennessee, to meet regional demands for dispatchable power.

The West Gateway Terminal Project “will support continued growth in U.S. coal exports, improve supply chain resilience, and strengthen energy partnerships with allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region,” DOE Under Secretary of Energy Kyle Haustveit said in a statement.

In a separate announcement, DOE said four projects will receive up to $350 million under the agency’s “Restoring Reliability: Coal Recommissioning and Modernization” initiative, to add or preserve roughly 3.6 GW of coal-fired capacity.

Apache Generating Station near Cochise, Arizona;

Along with almost 3 GW of new capacity split between Alaska and West Virginia, DOE announced funding for a project in Guayama, Puerto Rico, to retrofit and modernize an existing 510-MW coal-fired plant, and another project in Cumberland, Maryland, to recommission a 205-MW facility that ceased operations in 2024.

The Anchorage plant will have 1.25 GW of new coal capacity and the West Virginia Energy Campus project will offer 1.6 GW, according to a fact sheet from DOE. They would be the first new U.S. plants to come online since 2013, Trump said.

Also Thursday, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright issued an emergency order directing the Orlando Utilities Commission to ensure that Unit 1 at the coal-fired Stanton Energy Center near Orlando, Florida, remains available to operate. The unit was slated to enter a premature extended cold shutdown this month. The order is effective through Sept. 1. 

“Americans are upset about high electricity prices,” Wright said at the White House event. “Blame closing existing, reliable, secure plants, and replacing them with subsidized, unreliable plants — a gauranteed way to drive electricity prices up.”

But critics say coal plants are expensive to operate and the administration’s efforts are driving U.S. power bills higher. In March, the Sierra Club published analysis showing the Trump administration’s emergency orders to keep six retiring fossil-fueled power plants online have cost ratepayers more than $230 million.

More emergency orders have been issued since the Sierra Club analysis. Coal supporters, however, say the resources are essential and Trump’s investments will help maintain power grid reliability.

“Coal is a critical part of America’s energy security,” America’s Power President and CEO Michelle Bloodworth said in a statement. The group represents the U.S. coal sector.

“The United States has approximately 400 years of domestic coal reserves, making it one of the most fuel-secure energy sources available,” Bloodworth said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 18:40

A Lot More Than Just Rates Moving Markets

A Lot More Than Just Rates Moving Markets

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

The plan this weekend was to write about the AI Revolution. It would have dovetailed well with recent pieces Buggy Whips and Horses and Being Forced to Understand UBI. We discussed this, Iran, and much more on Bloomberg TV (1:43:30 mark), where I did bring out the red rocket ship tie, in honor of the SpaceX IPO.

But it is difficult to stick to the plan when the Nasdaq 100 drops almost 5% in a day and the Philly Semiconductor Index (a driving force of the big rally since the initial Iran attack sell-off) dropped over 10%! 10% in a single day for the most important subsector (of late) is a big deal!

As Mike Tyson famously said, “we all have a plan until we get punched in the face” and I’m not sure which would have been worse, a punch in the face from Tyson or 5% down on the Nasdaq 100? At least we can recover from market movements, not sure I could recover from a Tyson punch.

Rates – A Part of the Story

The jobs data came in hot. I would say, yet again, but as we published in our NFP Instant Reaction, there were fewer inconsistencies in this report. It doesn’t quite settle the Jobs – Data vs Vibes question, but it was a step in that direction.

The market is now pricing in one hike in 2026, as opposed to a 69% chance at the start of the week (though that should not have derailed stocks the way they were derailed).

10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.53% from 4.43% at the end of last week. Hardly warranting such a large sell-off in equities. The 10-year only moved 3 bps higher from Wednesday’s close to Friday’s close – kind of noise in the grand scheme of things. It was 4.66% on May 19th but the Nasdaq 100 was a touch lower than today.

I continue to think we see a steady grind higher in yields:

  • Price increases are being passed on to the consumer, and in the vast majority of industries, the consumer seems willing to pay those prices.
  • I continue to focus on the longer-dated oil futures contracts. My “go-to” choice has been the January 2027 WTI contract – it finished the week marginally higher ($78.22 vs $77.14) on increased concerns about the lack of a deal with Iran. My pain point is that higher for longer is baked into oil prices, but not necessarily bond prices. This will feed into diesel costs, amongst other things, that will feed into more potential price pressures in the economy. As we discussed briefly, as of May 29th (last reporting date) the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was almost back to the 2023 lows. How much more can be released? Yes, the world is figuring out ways to counter the supply shock, but the tool of releasing reserves may be nearing an end.
  • Spending on military is increasing globally. There are also spending pressures on many countries to offset the affordability issue, which is global in nature.
    • Iran isn’t the only country in the Middle East selling less oil. While Iran bears the brunt of the pain, the entire region is selling less. For countries where much of the population lives on government handouts from their petroleum profits, that creates the need to borrow. So, some traditionally large buyers of U.S. Treasuries may be busy dealing with their own funding needs.
  • Stablecoins to the Rescue? One interesting element to the admin’s strategy was to use stablecoins in particular as a backdoor way for foreigners to buy T-bills. With the Clarity Act struggling to get turned into law, and Bitcoin back to its lows of the year (more on that later), that doesn’t seem like it will help much in the near-term.

I don’t like the backdrop for bond yields here. It is a global issue, but the transition from Treasuries being the “gold standard” to a “generic sovereign bond” to many purchasers impacts Treasuries a little more.

Fighting Parabolic Moves is Crazy! (until it isn’t)

You can fight parabolic moves all you want, but normally you go broke by the third or fourth time you call the market crazy. Once a parabolic move cracks there may be opportunities.

Gold in the past year is a pretty good example. The steady churn higher. One decent pullback, that quickly turned back into a grind higher, followed by a “final” parabolic move higher. It never reclaimed that level and has been grinding lower.

Everyone seems to be asking, is this the fake pullback, like we saw with gold in 2025, or the end of the parabolic run? SOXX, an ETF tracking this index, had a small outflow on Friday, in terms of share count, but is close to its share count high. SOXL, a 3x ETF, had inflows, but from a relatively low base. I have found the flows of these two “sibling” funds to be curious over the past few weeks, and that latest flow data doesn’t help. Maybe the best explanation is some retail holders were getting nervous and selling the 3x leveraged ETF to buy unleveraged versions and shifted some money back on the big drop?

Not sure if this parabolic move is over, but it is interesting to think about.

3.5 Stories FAR MORE IMPORTANT than Rates

I think there were 4 stories that hit the tape later in the week that bear the most responsibility for the move. Let’s start with what I think was the most important headline.

  • SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P.  The eligibility rules for inclusion in S&P Dow Jones Indices would not shorten the 12-month seasoning period, and there would be no waivers on profitability regardless of size/market cap. I don’t think it is possible to overestimate the importance of index inclusion. China working hard to get their stocks (and to a lesser extent, their bonds) into indices is probably enough evidence to stop right there, but I won’t. There was some small 100-year issuance done in Europe a few years ago, that immediately skyrocketed in price, primarily because index demand was insatiable (eligible bonds typically go in at the end of the month). Again, according to Grok, at the end of 2024 there was $20 TRILLION linked to the S&P 500. MU is the 10th largest holding in SPY with a market cap of just under $1 trillion. It is 1.5% of the index. So presumably a company with a market cap of $1 trillion (which is around where some are being talked about) would mean $300 billion of “instant” demand if included in the indices? That seems so wrong, but the math seems to work, so I’ll run with it.
  • That ruling changes the potential “forced” demand. If it goes into the index, it gets bought. And no one is going to underweight these mega IPOs given their potential for outsized gains (index people are primarily afraid of not tracking in general). According to Grok, at the end of 2025, “only” $1.5 trillion tracked the Nasdaq 100. Impressive by any standard, but not the holy grail for these new IPOs.
  • The profitability test is also a concern. The goal of many of these IPOs remains growth, as it probably should be given the market environment, but that means they are not focused on profitability. From what I understand, the offering documents are not talking about near-term profitability. That potentially pushes the inclusion further down the road.
    • The ½ important story, is that the offering documents let investors see the numbers, and by the sounds of it, some of the numbers relative to valuations are raising an eyebrow. I don’t think that is super important, or should be a surprise, but I heard it mentioned enough this week, to put it down as ½ a headline that is important.
  • This is largely a zero-sum game, because stocks would have been sold to make room for the IPOs, but from a headline perspective that is one or two steps removed, and forces participants to come up with money for the new issues using different mechanisms. Maybe that is a “weak” answer, but I don’t think it impacts markets as zero-sum at the moment – treat this lack of inclusion as a headwind.
  • It will be curious to live in a world where some of the biggest companies, by market cap, don’t move the S&P 500, but it seems that this is the path we are heading down.
  • Stories hit the tape that Meta was potentially considering raising “tens of billions” in a stock offering after Google’s record $85 billion share deal. We have lived in a world where knowing “blackout” periods was important because companies tended to buy back less stock during those periods (not sure if that was ever true, but it is a perception that was out there). Is the market going to have to digest a lot more equity issuance than previously thought? Is the share buyback era shifting? Share buybacks have been a tailwind for markets, and a reversal of that could weigh on markets. The issuance seems to make a lot of sense (tapping as many pools of capital as possible to work on the AI and Data Center buildout), but it should weigh on markets as it is yet more dollars to absorb.
  • Broadcom missed AI Expectations. Not sure how true that headline is, but it gathered momentum after their earnings. I suspect it was as much about the market waiting for an excuse to sell, than it was anything really inherent to their business. If it was just their business, the damage wouldn’t have been so widespread. Regardless of the accuracy of the headlines, we had the media, for the first time in ages, being able to question the ongoing AI spend. That is important, especially for anyone who was looking for a “catalyst” to end the parabolic run.

I think these 3.5 stories played a much bigger role in the weakness than either Iran or rates did.

That is somewhat concerning from a risk perspective, because all 3.5 stories have “legs” to them and if this is a real challenge to the parabolic move, we have plenty of downside left for stocks.

More AI Anecdotes

Last week I mentioned that at conferences, attendees no longer want to “hear” about AI. They want concrete examples of implementations. What worked? What didn’t?

Conversations I’ve had this past week all point to similar questions about “is AI currently a good value proposition.” If I wasn’t hearing that so much, I wouldn’t have planned on writing about the AI Revolution. A lot of questions rising to the surface about whether the cost of tokens is delivering what was expected in terms of efficiencies or business opportunities/development. It is far from being one-sided, but the move for many from “relatively inexpensive monthly subscriptions” to a token-based model is letting people do more thorough analysis.

Yes, AI is only going to get better, but are we paying too much for what it delivers today? Probably not, but the parabolic run in stocks linked to the sector leaves them susceptible to any level of doubt.

Gambling versus Investing

Sometimes I refer to the “gambling” crowd as the “degens.” The ones who love 0DTE (Zero Day to Expiration Options), “meme” stocks, Leveraged ETFs (especially single stock leveraged ETFs), and even alt coins. Anything to turn 1 into 100.

I believe they helped drive gold higher at the margin. Without a doubt they focus on crypto periodically, but as bitcoin volatility has declined, it has attracted less of this money.

Have they played a role in the big move in semis? Not if SOXL or TQQQ (3x leveraged ETFs) are a sign, as they’ve been experiencing outflows, but I cannot help but think they have helped the parabolic move (it is, almost definitionally, the type of thing they do).

Which brings me to one other security I’m watching closely. The MSTR Multi-Coupon Cumulative Perpetual Preferred often referred to by MSTR and social media as STRC. The current coupon is set to 11.5%. My “basic” understanding is that this instrument is designed to set its coupon to pull the instrument towards par. Whenever it trades much above 100, the strategy is to use the premium to add bitcoin.

It was trading around 99 until early this week when MSTR sold some bitcoin, apparently to fund the dividend.It was 32 bitcoin – a tiny fraction of the almost 850,000 bitcoin MSTR holds! It seems like a trivial amount (and in fact is a trivial amount). But there was a sentiment that MSTR would never sell bitcoin to pay the dividend (saw a lot of quotes about being told to sell a kidney to buy more Bitcoin).

This closed Friday at 93.4 (with bitcoin at $61.5k). Bitcoin is trading lower than that now. While this particular security should not be directly linked to the price of bitcoin (based on capital structure, etc.), it seems to be a driving factor.

Is the “gambling” crowd still heavily invested in crypto? Did they chase the recent upside, only to end up down 25% in less than a month?

Disruptive tech (I often use ARKK as a proxy) got hit hard this week and while off its lows is down on the year.

I fear that the crowd that gambles in some or all of these spaces is under pressure across the board, which may lead to selling pressure. As a whole, this isn’t a big group, but at the margin, when they are chasing the same trade, they have an outsized impact.

Bottom Line

Look for yields to trend higher. That isn’t a major problem for equities, but it isn’t helping.

Credit will have to leak wider, even with higher yields, if equities continue to drop. There is just too much money in various cap structure trades for that not to occur, but credit will outperform. In fact, the equity issuance by some companies, rather than issuing even more debt, is good for credit at the expense of the equity price. Not quite the Debt Diet, but plays out similarly (5-year ORCL CDS for example is well off its highs in March).

I think the 3.5 stories, along with Iran, and higher yields, can add to pressure on stocks.

Having said that, this admin has come up with some stick saves for stocks before and they have all weekend to come up with another one! It is so painfully scary to be bearish equities, and that is probably the right trade, but that doesn’t make it any less scary.

Sell in May and Go Away seemed stupid, until this first week of June.

I continue to see this as an economy with two distinct components:

  • An economy facing “affordability” issues, dealing with a low hire, low fire job market (though that might be understating the health of the job market, but I haven’t fully gotten on board with that). That part of the economy is struggling and consumers seem to be sticking to experiential spending versus goods spending, but how long can that last? The stocks affected reflect this.
  • The AI and data center buildout economy. Booming! Yet, after any parabolic move, was Wall Street so stupid a couple of months ago that this area was so undervalued that a parabolic move makes sense? Or was the move so great that any questions could cause a significant pullback (who’d have thought we’d be wondering if a one-day 10% move is “significant”). The answer is probably somewhere in between.

Without some new headline out of DC (or a change of tune from the S&P) look for choppiness and more weakness in stocks.

I think the “rotation” theme is limited as this move is about questioning the AI/Data Center valuations and nothing has been done to fix the affordability issues.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 17:30

'I Could've Kept It That Way': Trump Admits The Inflation Is His Choice - For A War That 'Isn't A War'

'I Could've Kept It That Way': Trump Admits The Inflation Is His Choice - For A War That 'Isn't A War'

In a wide-ranging interview in which he touted record stock prices and rebranded weapons-grade uranium as "nuclear dust" (and then stormed out), President Donald Trump said the quiet part out loud: the prices Americans are paying at the pump are not an accident. This was all his decision.

"I could've kept it that way," Trump told NBC's Kristen Welker in an interview taped in a rain-battered Wisconsin barn before he was set to appear at a farming industry roundtable discussion - describing the cheap gasoline everyone enjoyed during his first few months back in office. "But I said, I have to take a little bit of a turn ... We're going to have higher gasoline. We're going to have a little higher fertilizer, et cetera, et cetera. But I'm going to get rid of a nuclear weapon in the hands of very dangerous people."

"The farmers love me"

Asked about farmers who can no longer afford fertilizer - seventy percent of them, by Welker's count - Trump didn't push back, but instead changed the subject to loyalty.

"I had a choice to make. I could keep it going. The farmers were doing great. Fertilizer was very cheap. Everything was cheap. Gasoline was very low. Everything was very low. I could've kept it that way. But I said, I have to take a little bit of a turn. The farmers are going to understand it better than anybody."

Trump leaned on his heavy support in the heartland. "I love the farmers, and the farmers love me. The farmers trust me," he said, pointing to the $28 billion in trade-war bailouts he cut growers in his first term. So - the economic cost of the US-Israeli war on Iran is something that Americans should be willing to eat for him.

And again, promises of utopia: 

"And when we have a completion, you will see things like you've never seen. The oil will go down."

"It's all coming down as soon as the war's over," he promised of gas and diesel. When Welker pressed for a timeline, he bristled - "No, but you keep talking about speed" - and reached again for Vietnam.

The public is less patient: an Economist/YouGov survey this week found sixty-eight percent of adults want a deal to end the war as fast as possible, including fifty-five percent of his own 2024 voters. They are being asked to finance a known cost today against a promised windfall on an unscheduled tomorrow, on the word of a president whose case rests on never having to name the day. That is not an economic argument. It is a leap of faith with a fuel surcharge.

Blame The Fed

And of course, it's the Fed's fault for not aligning with Trump's agenda. Given whispers that the institution is actually considering hiking rates in response to a strong jobs report, Trump preemptively branded the move as a crime against prosperity

"There's no reason to raise interest rates ... What they do is when they raise interest rates, they try and kill success. I don't want to kill success. We should actually lower interest rates."

And then - in what should give any bondholder pause: "Growth is the greatest thing you can have, and growth does not cause inflation." No, apparently it takes braking a core campaign promise to personally engineer higher prices. Meanwhile, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh gavels his first meeting later this month, and Trump was careful to say he would not "have a big influence on him" - except, he clearly spelled out his expectations.

"I would like to see rates get lower," he said, "because we could build this into the greatest machine that the world has ever seen, but you can't do that when everybody immediately raises interest rates."

 

Meanwhile, Trump insists Iran can be starved into surrender... 

"They tried a blockade, and now we blockaded them," he said of Iran. "And, as you know, they're losing $400-500 million a day. It's not sustainable for them. They have an economy that's shot, in addition to everything else." The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil; and the valve Trump is twisting shut to strangle Tehran is the same valve lifting fuel costs in Des Moines. The blockade he is celebrating and the inflation he admitted choosing are directly linked.

Asked what happens if the talks fail, Trump did not hedge: "Either way, we win." Asked about the highly enriched uranium still buried in Iran, he offered a branding note.

"The official name is highly enriched uranium. And I call it nuclear dust because it seemed to be nice, and everyone understands it better, and it's sort of cute, and people picked it up."

He assured Welker the sites are under constant watch from orbit: "If anybody walked there, if you walked over there, I would be able to read your first name on your lapel. And these are cameras up in space. It's pretty amazing technology. Space Force." He claimed, in passing and without elaboration, that the United States "took over Venezuela in a matter of minutes." He put Iran's surviving arsenal at "maybe 21-22% of their missiles ... It's a lot of missiles, but it's not what it was when we first attacked." 

No New Wars (because this isn't a war!)

Trump was elected in large part on three words he repeated from 2015 onward: no new wars. 

Welker asked the obvious question - had he broken that promise? Trump said 'no,' but then insisted that he had never made the promise in the first place.

"First of all, I didn't guarantee no war," Trump said. "Why would I have built the strongest military in the world?" When Welker pointed out that he had said it "over and over again," he did not relent. "So when you say I promised, I didn't promise anything. I don't like these endless wars. This is not an endless war."

For the anti-interventionists who treated that pledge as a covenant - the ones who forgave a great deal because at least he would not start the next Iraq - this is the moment the bill came due, narrated by the man who ran it up. He is now prosecuting two wars at once. He will not call either one a war. And his defense, start to finish, is not strategic. It is linguistic.

Not a war, a "military exercise" for "regime change"

Trump then leaned heavily on semantics, insisting this isn't a war...

"I call it a military exercise because people would rather have it called that," he said early on. "It's not a big war for us. It's not."

Pressed on the naval blockade of Iran – which is, under international law, itself an act of war – he simply declined to engage the category. "I don't consider that a war, but if you want to define it as such, I guess you can." Asked directly how he would define it, he offered the cleanest statement of the whole doctrine: "I don't define it at all. I don't think about it. I just do what I have to do." 

Describing the leadership Tehran has installed after the killing of the old Supreme Leader and his lieutenants, Trump volunteered the word the entire post-Iraq right swore off: "And you could say it's regime change actually because these are very different people. I find them to be more rational, very smart." - said the guy who built his brand on mocking the people who gave the country Iraq and Libya. And not in one country but two: in the same interview he claimed the United States "took over Venezuela in a matter of minutes." 

Thirteen dead - better than Vietnam! 

Trump's proof that it is all going well is a body count. "We've had 13 people killed," he said, more than once, "and that includes two wars. That's Venezuela, and that's Iran." He means it as triumph: fewer dead than Vietnam, than Iraq, than any war you can name. But for the people who took "no new wars" at face value, the framing collapses on contact. Thirteen Americans are dead in two conflicts the president started and refuses to call wars, sold under the banner he insists makes it acceptable: "You know, it's America first. I'm doing our country a service."

That is the real breach, and it is worse than a broken promise. You can hold a man to a promise. What you cannot do is hold him to a war he will not admit is a war, or a pledge he insists he never made. The Wisconsin barn produced no policy reversal and no apology. It produced something more useful to understand: a president who has discovered that the surest way to keep a promise is to deny, on camera, that you ever gave it.

Doing The World A Service

At the end of the day, Trump had no choice:

"I had to stop a country, very powerful, very dangerous country, from having a nuclear weapon because they'd use it. They'd blow up the world. They'd blow up the Middle East. They'd blow up Israel. They'd come here. They'd blow up Europe. They're nuts, okay? They’re crazy people. I deal with them. And very high-strung people. Little crazy. And – I get along with them. I like them. But you don't want to let them have a nuclear weapon. And I'm doing the world a service, but I'm doing our country a service. You know, it's America first. I'm doing our country a service. Nice rain."

Indeed... 

Trump then called Welker and the MSM 'crooked' and stormed out - which, hey, we can't argue with! 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 17:15

Angry Pentagon Sources Leak Report Of Israel's 'Unhinged' Spying On US Officials

Angry Pentagon Sources Leak Report Of Israel's 'Unhinged' Spying On US Officials

It's no secret that Israeli spying and surveillance is pervasive, and it is often even directed at its most powerful ally and backer, the United States. But the phenomenon has escalated of late, outraging Washington intelligence officials.

Behind the scenes of this alliance which mainstream media and pundits typically project as essentially untouchable, deep-seated friction is boiling over. In an unprecedented move, the Pentagon has officially elevated Israel's counterintelligence threat level to its highest possible category, driven by surging internal alarm that this primary Mideast regional ally is aggressively ramping up espionage operations targeting senior US officials - even Trump's own top Iran negotiator.

Pentagon file image

The intelligence warning, freshly reported this weekend by NBC News and The New York Times, highlights a profound rift within the national security apparatus as tensions mount between the Trump administration and Israel over the ongoing joint war on Iran.

The revelation's timing is interesting, given it comes after Axios reported at the start of this month that on a phone call President Trump 'steamrolled' Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump is said to have been "pissed" and at one point yelled and berated Netanyahu, saying "What the fuck are you doing?"

And now, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is broadcasting an internal alert raising Israel's specific threat designation to "critical". According to details revealed in a Sunday NBC report:

The designation stems from concerns within the Pentagon that Israel is making a particular effort to surveil top U.S. officials to get information on the Trump administration’s internal deliberations and decision-making on the conflicts in the Middle East, the officials said.

The DIA assessment includes a seven-page document and features a chart, according to one of the current U.S. officials. The document says the assessment of Israel is that its ability to conduct human espionage and technical collection is at a “critical level,” according to the official.

And parallel to this, a report by the NY Times lists out names that are very high level within the Trump administration. Israel has allegedly focused its electronic and human efforts to eavesdrop on the following officials (likely among others):

  • Steve Witkoff, Trump’s premier regional negotiator.
  • Elbridge A. Colby, the Pentagon’s top policy official.
  • Michael P. DiMino IV, one of Colby’s primary deputies.

The Israeli embassy in Washingtons has slammed the reports as 'completely false': "This entire story is false and sourced to someone who doesn’t have any knowledge of what’s going on," it said in a statement.

But the major US media reports highlight American intel officials who don't try and tone down or couch their words. Instead they speak of "unhinged" Israeli spying on US government officials.

The targeting of Colby is particularly notable given his past public policy statements, where he has explicitly called for a "reset" on the foundational US relationship with Israel. More broadly, Israel is worried about losing the political Right in the United States, given the number of younger, prominent conservative 'influencers' who have been highly critical of Israel of late.

Meanwhile the DIA dossier explicitly concludes that Israel's capabilities to execute both human espionage (HUMINT) and technical collection (SIGINT) and provides deals and documentation of specific recent incidents

Current and former US officials summarized the crisis to NBC by noting that Israel's recent clandestine activities have moved far beyond the baseline, routine espionage conventionally tolerated on some level between friendly nations.

It appears the Netanyahu government is going to great lengths to ensure President Trump doesn't make a 'bad deal' to end the Iran war. Also, it's clear - given these new leaks by US officials - that Trump insiders are quite outraged at this Israeli aggression on the intelligence-sharing front.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 16:55

Former Musk Adviser Sriram Krishnan Leaving White House AI Role

Former Musk Adviser Sriram Krishnan Leaving White House AI Role

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

Senior White House policy adviser on artificial intelligence Sriram Krishnan, a former Twitter executive who advised Elon Musk during his acquisition of the social media platform, announced Saturday he will leave his role at the end of June.

U.S. President Donald Trump hands a pen to Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence Sriram Krishnan after signing an executive order while U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) (2nd L) and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick look on in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Dec. 11, 2025. Alex Wong/Getty Images

In a social media post, Krishnan described serving the American people as "the privilege of a lifetime" and thanked President Donald Trump for the opportunity.

"Without his leadership, we would not be leading in the AI race," Krishnan wrote.

Krishnan also thanked David Sacks, saying he had worked most closely with him over the past 18 months and praising his advocacy for American leadership in artificial intelligence.

Among the accomplishments Krishnan said he was most proud of were helping architect and publish the American AI Action Plan, advancing AI acceleration partnerships, helping develop the National AI Policy Framework for AI executive order, and advocating for the American AI technology sector with allies around the world.

Looking ahead, Krishnan said the United States and its allies face challenges involving energy, data centers, and expanding access to artificial intelligence technologies.

"I plan on building institutions that help tackle some of those challenges for America and its allies," he wrote.

Krishnan also thanked numerous administration officials and others for their support, including Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Elon Musk, and others.

Krishnan leaves as opposition to AI data centers has grown rapidly across the country as projects expand into communities.

According to Data Center Watch, an estimated $152 billion in potential data center investment was blocked or delayed in 2025. Hundreds of activist groups in 42 states organized to oppose new projects or expansions. Critics cite concerns over water consumption, electricity demand, noise, and the lack of long-term studies on health and environmental impacts. There are more than 3,100 data centers in the United States, according to the Data Center Map. There are another 1,800 data centers in some state of development.

Trump announced Krishnan was joining the White House as an adviser in December 2024.

"Sriram Krishnan will serve as Senior Policy Advisor for Artificial Intelligence at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy," the president said at that time. "Working closely with David Sacks, Sriram will focus on ensuring continued American leadership in A.I., and help shape and coordinate A.I. policy across Government, including working with the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Sriram started his career at Microsoft as a founding member of Windows Azure."

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 16:20

New York Legislature Passes Data Center Moratorium

New York Legislature Passes Data Center Moratorium

Authored by Nicholas Zifcak via The Epoch Times,

The New York state Legislature passed a one-year data center permit moratorium June 4 in the final days of the legislative session. If Gov. Kathy Hochul signs it into law, New York would be the first to enact a statewide moratorium.

A data center in Tennessee. Courtesy of CleanSpark

The legislation requires a pause on permitting while the state Department of Environmental Conservation conducts a comprehensive study on the impact of data centers on electricity, pollution, and water and land use.

The law would apply to data centers that draw 20 megawatts or more of power at peak use. It would also require data centers to increasingly rely on non-carbon energy sources, using one-third renewables by 2030 and 90 percent by 2040.

When asked on June 3 about the legislation during an unrelated event in Brooklyn, Hochul said she will consider the moratorium, and that "the status quo can't continue."

Hochul said that if data centers are built in New York, she wants to ensure local communities benefit.

The governor expressed concern that though local communities may want data centers, they may not be in a strong position to handle negotiations with those looking to build them: "Question No. 1, is the community able to negotiate enough to get benefits?" she said.

Hyperscale data centers, which today largely handle artificial intelligence data processing, consume enormous amounts of energy, ranging from tens to hundreds of megawatts - equal to the power used by tens of thousands of homes during peak demand.

As of July 2025, New York state's electrical grid operator had received more than two dozen large load requests to connect to the power grid, equivalent to 6,055 megawatts of power. By December 2025, the large load requests had increased to 48, totaling 12,000 megawatts, nearly doubling in five months.

The operators said in a report in February that maintaining on-demand power availability and grid reliability will be a major challenge given the additional demand.

This comes at a time when New York state electricity rates haven been on a steady incline. According to the state power grid operator, the main factors are rising natural gas prices and a climate law that is forcing older carbon-emitting power plants to make costly upgrades or go offline faster than newer, cleaner energy sources are being added to the grid.

To address this, the moratorium legislation would also require the state utility regulator, the Public Service Commission, to require utilities to assess the costs of serving data centers, including any necessary infrastructure upgrades, and to establish separate rates for such centers.

Local Impact

Communities in upstate New York present an attractive location for large data centers with inexpensive land, cooler temperatures, and, in some areas, abundant hydroelectric power.

That's the case in St. Lawrence County, where the St. Lawrence River delineates the border with Canada and a massive hydroelectric dam serves the region. Not only is there abundant power from the Moses-Saunders Power Dam, but the region's manufacturing history also means there's infrastructure to use and deliver it.

New York's independent power grid manager has received 17 large load, 10 megawatts or more, requests to connect to the grid in St. Lawrence County, eight of which appear to be from data centers. Whether such requests translate into solid proposals is yet to be seen, but county legislator Rita Curran said she is aware of two proposals currently under review.

Curran sponsored a resolution in the county Board of Legislators that passed on June 1, acknowledging the enormous impact data centers can have on the local electric grid and on communities at large, and noting significant local opposition. Even so, the resolution calls on the governor and the legislature not to usurp county authority in the review and approval process for data centers, and ensures that "counties are not preempted from exercising their land use, taxation, and zoning authority."

The resolution also urges local city governments to consider a moratorium on data centers. Curran told The Epoch Times it is a homerule issue. "I just feel like the people who live here and the people who govern here should have some ability to be part of the discussion versus everything being ruled by people that have never been here."

She said she's not happy the state legislature passed the moratorium.

"I think that they will hinder any development at all. We don't have a great business environment for people," Curran said.

"The decisions should be more based in the communities because what goes on in Albany is like a different world."

Patrick Kelly, CEO of the St. Lawrence County Industrial Development Agency, agrees that the local process can handle the decision. He said the potential moratorium sends the wrong signal.

"In terms of business development, business friendliness, being open for business and investment, moratoriums aren't necessarily an encouraging outcome," he told The Epoch Times.

Kelly thinks local communities should decide because they are the ones most affected by the facilities. He said the existing processes for the community to review any such proposals are already in place, including local zoning, planning, permitting, and project approval.

"I think letting those processes do the work that they were set up to do leads to the best outcomes for any community," Kelly said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 15:10

Bessent Examining Use Of Frozen Iranian Assets To Help Gulf Countries Rebuild

Bessent Examining Use Of Frozen Iranian Assets To Help Gulf Countries Rebuild

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reportedly pursuing a pathway to repurpose Iranian assets to compensate Amerca's Gulf allies which have suffered significant damage due to Iran's attacks in the wake of Trump's Operation Epic Fury.

Over eighty oil, gas, and vital infrastructure facilities across the Gulf have been hit - with most of the attacks having occurred in March and April - with one recent report estimating up to $58 billion in damage. Iran has sought to justify these attacks as 'retaliation' for these Gulf countries hosting American bases during the US unprovoked assault on the Islamic Republic.

Image source: White House

"Treasury will utilize all tools available to allow Iranian assets to be made available to our Gulf allies to support rebuilding and repairs for any future damage caused by Iran," a US official told ABC's Senior White House correspondent Selina Wang over the weekend.

"The Secretary has also directed his team to assess conditions amongst our Gulf allies and request comprehensive estimates of the costs associated with repairing damage Iran has inflicted since the start of the conflict," the source continued.

"Treasury will further consider whether Iranian assets could be used to support repairs for past damages," it added, per the ABC correspondent. She also wrote on X:

The Iranian assets could include frozen assets and ships the U.S. has seized. The administration is reaching out to Gulf allies right now and asking for their evaluation.

If Treasury pulls the trigger on such a plan, it would likely further derail efforts to get Tehran and Washington back to the negotiating table. Already the US has balked at Iran's own insistent it be given reparations for damage done. 

Iran is demanding that its billions in funds long frozen by Washington be given back as part of a deal. The Trump administration has so far appeared to reject this.

While some Gulf allies might welcome this, some might see it as unrealistic and a recipe for just prolonging the war. In this scenario, Gulf societies would only suffer more, especially in any future escalation leading to all-out war.

The D.C. think tank Freedom for Defense of Democracies has estimated Iran's damage suffered since the US-Israel war on it was launched at well over $100 billion, and possibly reaching as high as $300 billion - according to the highest-end estimates.

"FDD’s first model-based estimate of Iran's economic losses to date due to Operation Epic Fury are $144 billion, or 40 percent of pre-war GDP," a late April report said.

TOTAL IRAN ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATE, FDD on April 23...

On this basis, Tehran will pursue its case that it unjustly suffered the greatest damage to its national infrastructure and society, and that the surprise attack was launched as it was seeking to engage in good faith negotiations with the United States, ironically enough.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 14:35

Choose One: Housing Is Shelter, Or Housing Is Just Another Asset In A Bubble Economy

Choose One: Housing Is Shelter, Or Housing Is Just Another Asset In A Bubble Economy

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds,

This will get massive pushback because it's true: either Housing Is Shelter, or Housing Is Just Another Asset in a Bubble Economy - it can't be both. This reality gets pushback because the conversion of housing from shelter into just another asset bubbling higher in a bubble-dependent economy has been so profitable for those inflating the bubble.

The basic pushback goes like this: housing has always been an investment, nothing has changed. This is classic misdirection. This is like saying "stock market options have always been a way to hedge positions" to justify the transition from hedging to extremes of gambling, i.e. zero-day expiration options (ODTE).

Whenever I suggest that housing is being hoarded by the wealthy and corporations as a low-risk asset to park credit-generated capital, I get pushback: no, I'm told, the percentage of housing that's empty most or all of the year owned by the wealthy and corporations is tiny, as is the percentage of housing owned as short-term vacation rentals (STVRs).

The problem with these claims is they're based on completely fraudulent / inaccurate statistics. There is no regulatory system that audits whether owners who obtained "owner occupied" mortgages actually live in the dwelling, or whether owners, especially those hidden behind LLCs and other cloaking mechanisms, are "owner occupants" as claimed.

Owner-Occupancy Fraud and Mortgage Performance (Philadelphia Federal Reserve) Occupancy fraud has been suggested as a contributor to the housing bubble. We show it was pervasive and remains present.

In other words, even the most cursory audits find significant percentages of "owner occupied" housing is vacant most or all of the time or is an unregistered short-term vacation rental. Anecdotally, many upper-middle class households own not just vacation / second homes in rural locales but "investment" homes that are empty or they use occasionally in urban areas, which due to high demand / valuations are hoarded because selling them in a bubble economy means the sellers will be unable to buy back into the market in the future.

The "monetize your empty room" AirBnB idea that began the short-term vacation rental market has transmogrified into a monster consuming the housing market in resort locales. Surveys have found that 15% or more of all available housing in resort locales is now absentee-owner short-term vacation rentals, and two-thirds of condominium buyers are out-of-state.

STVRs Have Destroyed America's Resort Towns

Some argue this doesn't matter because resort housing tends to be in rural regions with few jobs. It matters to local residents who are priced out. But "investment" housing isn't limited to resorts; there are an unknown but consequential number of vacant / STVR "investment" housing units in urban areas with jobs and strong demand for permanent housing.

Cities with rent control such as San Francisco and New York have renters who keep their low-cost flat vacant while living abroad. Since the rent-controlled apartment cannot be replaced once it's surrendered, it makes sense to hoard the rental for future or occasional use. Again, there is no system of auditing who actually lives in a dwelling as a permanent resident, as this is viewed in the US as an invasion of privacy.

(In Japan, local authorities keep close tabs on who is actually living in every dwelling as a matter of course. When we stayed in a friend's temporarily vacant flat for a few days, officials came to the door to check on who we were.)

The monetary policies of suppressing interest rates and expanding credit have favored the wealthy who have the income to support additional mortgages and the need to park their expanding capital somewhere. Housing is attractive because it's less volatile than the stock market and offers higher appreciation in a bubble economy than bonds.

Those seeking housing as shelter cannot compete with wealthy households and entities seeking places to park credit-generated capital for income and/or appreciation. In a bubble-dependent economy, there's no need to go through all the trouble of renting an empty dwelling, as the appreciation alone makes the investment worthwhile. Renting out an "investment" incurs risks and costs that are best avoided - unless the property generates a hefty profit as a remotely managed unregistered short-term vacation rental.

Once again, the pushback is pushback against inconvenient truths that threaten the ownership class that has reaped gains from housing as an asset class in a bubble economy. It's now evident that large corporate owners of thousands of rental units have used predatory pricing - oops, I mean dynamic pricing - to jack up rents in markets they are dominant players in; once the price point is set higher, small landlords push up their rents to the new "market price."

In a non-bubble economy, credit is scarce and expensive, and so asset bubbles can't be inflated as credit inflates. As credit inflates, the pool of money sloshing around seeking a low-risk home for safety and appreciation expands, and this pool sloshes into housing, driving home prices and rents out of reach of those whose income is wages, not wages plus capital-generated income.

Bubbles in housing generate artificial scarcity, scarcity not in the total number of dwellings but in the number of dwellings available and within reach for those seeking shelter, i.e. whatever is left after wealthy households and corporations with access to credit snap up housing as a low-risk place to park capital that offers tax benefits and appreciation.

Housing affordability has reached historic lows.

Housing payments have reached historic highs.

The wealthiest 10% have used their income and credit to bid up assets which bubble higher in bubble-dependent economies.

So here's the truth: we can choose housing as shelter or housing as an asset in a bubble economy, but we can't choose both. Housing as an asset in a bubble economy pushes housing out of reach of those seeking shelter.

And of course there's pushback against the truth that ours is a bubble-dependent economy. For a definitive answer, let's see how well the economy is doing after all the credit-asset-speculative bubbles pop and decline back to their starting point.

My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free)

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 13:25

Americans' Average Monthly Mortgage Payment Tops $2000 For The First Time Ever

Americans' Average Monthly Mortgage Payment Tops $2000 For The First Time Ever

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

U.S. households are being financially squeezed at a level that we have never seen before. I have often said that we are in a long-term cost of living crisis that never seems to end, and that is not an exaggeration at all. Just about everything has been getting more expensive in recent years, and as a result our standard of living has been going down. In many areas of the country, you now have to earn six figures just to live a basic middle class lifestyle. The numbers that I am going to share with you in this article may be hard to believe, but they are very real. Inflation has been out of control for many years, and hard working American families are being absolutely crushed.

For the first time in U.S. history, the average monthly mortgage payment now exceeds $2,000

Homeowners faced a sticker shock at the end of 2025 as the average monthly mortgage payment topped $2,000 for the first time—a historic milestone reflecting the combined pressure of high home prices and elevated interest rates.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the average payment for existing mortgage holders climbed to $2,005, representing a striking 44% surge compared to 2021, according to the latest quarterly outstanding mortgage report from the Realtor.com® economic research team.

In other words, the typical homeowner saw their monthly mortgage payment jump by more than $600 in just three years, an eye-watering surge.

Take another look at those figures.

All along, federal bureaucrats have been feeding us numbers that show that the inflation rate is very low, but the average monthly mortgage payment has risen by 44 percent just since 2021.

Needless to say, someone is not telling us the truth.

But that isn’t even the worst part.

Today, what the average American family is paying for health insurance each month is even higher than the average monthly mortgage payment…

The numbers don’t lie. The average American family now pays over $2,200 a month for health insurance; surprisingly, that’s more than the average monthly mortgage payment of $2,000. Let that sink in. Keeping a roof over your head costs less than keeping your family covered.

That is not a market failure. That is a system rigged by liberals and government bureaucrats designed to benefit corporate giants at the expense of everyday Americans. Premiums are soaring, and insurers are cashing in. It needs to stop.

Americans are noticing. A recent poll found that a staggering 90 percent of Americans say health insurance companies have too much control and should be broken up, with 74 percent strongly agreeing. The overwhelming majority of Americans know there is a problem. They are screaming for justice.

That is outrageous.

Is there anyone out there that wants to attempt to defend how expensive health insurance has become?

Our system is so broken, and the politicians in Washington have given up on trying to fix it.

Meanwhile, pretty much everything else is becoming more expensive too.

And thanks to the war in Iran, American households have had to shell out an extra 100 billion dollars in just three months…

The war in Iran has cost US households $100 billion in three months, Moody’s Analytics says.

Now in its fourth month, the conflict has cost nearly $750 per household. The increased cost to consumers has mostly been felt in energy prices, but the inflation picture continues to deteriorate the longer the war drags on without a resolution in sight. What’s more, Moody’s says that tailwinds for household like Donald Trump’s tax cuts have been offset by war-fueled cost increased.

This is money that is coming directly out of your pockets.

The rising cost of gasoline alone has sucked an extra 400 dollars out of the typical U.S. household…

According to researchers at Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs, Americans have paid an additional $51.7 billion in gasoline and diesel costs since the conflict began on February 28, equivalent to nearly $400 per household. And Moody’s Analytics, in findings shared with CNBC, puts this figure even higher, at $450.

There is no end in sight for the crisis in the Middle East, and that means gasoline prices are likely to go significantly higher.

Commercial oil inventories are being rapidly depleted, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is “dropping toward levels not seen since the 1980s”

America’s emergency oil reserve is dropping toward levels not seen since the 1980s, as the United States rapidly drains its supplies to stabilize global energy markets rattled by the war with Iran.

According to the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. has 365.1 million barrels of oil sitting in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the week ending May 22, compared to 374.2 million a week prior and down by over 50 million barrels since the conflict began on February 28.

The price of oil has a direct impact on prices for just about everything else, and so that is really bad news.

As ordinary Americans are being squeezed harder and harder, household debt has been rising and the credit card delinquency rate has spiked to a very alarming level

According to data released by the New York Fed in May, total U.S. household debt climbed to an all-time high of $18.8 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. Much of this is housing debt, and credit card balances dropped slightly over the period, but the rising total has coincided with an increase in late payments.

The percentage of credit card balances at least 90 days delinquent reached 13.1 percent in the first quarter, up 0.4 percent from the previous one and reaching its highest rate in 15 years.

Millions upon millions of Americans are working as hard as they can and it still isn’t enough.

To many people, it just seems like there is no way that they can win, and so many are choosing to simply drop out of the game.

In fact, one out of every three American men are no longer in the workforce at all

The number of American men participating in the workforce has fallen to one of its lowest levels in nearly two decades, according to new federal labor statistics.

Just 66 percent of men age 20 and older were employed or actively seeking work as of April, according to data released earlier this month by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. That figure has dropped sharply from 73 percent in 2006 and now sits near levels last seen during the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis.

The numbers mean roughly one in three American men are no longer in the workforce.

This is what a crumbling economy looks like.

Only 66 percent of American men that are at least 20 years old are working.

How low does that number have to drop for us to admit that we have a historic crisis on our hands?

I have heard from so many readers that are feeling more financial stress right now than they ever have in their entire lives.

That isn’t a coincidence.

Decades of incredibly foolish decisions have resulted in a sl0w-motion economic decline that has really started to pick up speed in recent years.

Now the pain is beginning to feel like it is unbearable, but the truth is that our problems are only going to intensify from here.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 11:40

US Intercepted Fresh Iranian Ballistic Missile Attacks Overnight As Tehran Blasts 'Ceasefire Violations'

US Intercepted Fresh Iranian Ballistic Missile Attacks Overnight As Tehran Blasts 'Ceasefire Violations' Summary
  • Iran's foreign ministry says US overnight action, especially bombing coastal radar facilities, is a violation of ceasfire.
  • New nighttime salvo of missiles on Kuwait, Bahrain: Six ballistic missiles fired at Bahrain and Kuwait were intercepted, CENTCOM said.
  • Overnight flare-up started with Iranian attack drones in Strait being intercepted by US forces.
  • Trump admits Iran still has some 20% of its missile arsenal: "It’s a lot of missiles, but it’s not what it was when we first attacked." (CNBC)
//--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 21% · No 80%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Iran FM Blasts New US 'Ceasefire Violations'

Iran has again accused the US of breaking the ceasefire, with the Foreign Ministry on Saturday stating the US "not only lacks the will to reduce tensions and return to the path of stability, but with its adventurist actions, it seriously endangers the security of the region."

The ministry on X denounced fresh US attacks its coastal radar and surveillance facilities in Sirik region and on Qeshm Island - saying this breached the ceasefire. The ministry “strongly calls on the countries of the region to observe the principle of good neighborliness and adhere to the fundamental principle of international law of refraining from allowing aggressors to use their territory and facilities to plan and carry out aggressive actions against the Islamic Republic of Iran."

It seems clear that for each US action, Iran is seeking to establish deterrence, and so is not hesitating to fire or inflict some kind of 'cost' either on US bases or the Gulf allies hosting them.

More Pakistani efforts to forge together agreement to get US-Iran back to the formal negotiating table:

Salvo of Ballistic Missiles Fired on Kuwait, Bahrain

Soon after the initial drone shootdown engagement (below), it became apparent that anti-air defense systems were active over Kuwait, as its armed forces warned the public that explosions were the result of inbound projectile intercepts. While there were no reports of damage, the ground result is still anything but clear or certain (based on past instances of the US and Gulf allies concealing or downplaying damage or casualties).

Within hours after this initial exchange of fire, Iran followed up with more ballistic missiles on nearby Bahrain and Kuwait - as 'punishment' for the countries hosting US forces and American bases.

Bloomberg reports that "Six ballistic missiles fired at Bahrain and Kuwait were intercepted and another failed to reach its intended target, hours after four drones headed to the Strait of Hormuz were shot down, Centcom said." It notes that the "US military struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island in return."

It Started With Iranian Drone Shootdowns

More details have come to light of the latest overnight flare-up in fighting between US and Iranian forces in and around the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.

The Friday night and overnight clashes started when the US military reportedly intercepted and shot down at least four Iranian one-way attack drones. According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the incoming unmanned aerial vehicles were heading directly toward the Strait of Hormuz and posed an "imminent threat to maritime traffic."

Following the drone shootdowns, American forces immediately launched retaliatory strikes against key military targets inside Iranian territory. CENTCOM further detailed that American assets hit Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites located in Goruk, a city in the Hormozgan province, as well as on Qeshm Island, a strategically vital Iranian outpost in the mouth of the strait.

Each Exchange Another Escalation Toward Full-Scale War

One thing is clear: these 'limited' escalations are becoming more regular, and even almost nightly at this point, raising the stakes and possibility of a more full-on, dangerous renewed war.

It has also become increasingly evident and acknowledged that the ceasefire has allowed Iran to reconstitute much of its missile and drone capabilities, and underground launch tunnels are being dug out with heavy equipment.

President Trump himself has recently admitted this state of things, amid the extended ceasefire:

US President Donald Trump, who has insisted for months that Iran was near its breaking point, conceded Friday that the country retains some missile and drone capacity. In an interview with NBC News, he said about 21-22% of Tehran’s missile arsenal remains.

“It’s a lot of missiles, but it’s not what it was when we first attacked,” he told the television network during a visit to Wisconsin. Earlier Friday, he told reporters the US is “having great success with Iran,” and “they’re in no position to have a nuclear weapon.”

Sunday will mark 100 days since the start of Operation Epic Fury. Trump and US officials had touted only a 'short' conflict, and seemed to have been betting on the government being toppled.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 11:04

UK Cop Fired For Questioning Islam In 'Safe Space'

UK Cop Fired For Questioning Islam In 'Safe Space'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

A Christian police community support officer lost his career after asking a Muslim colleague about jihad and Hamas atrocities during a diversity session that promised open discussion. At the same time, training drilled "white privilege" into police ranks.

Luke Salmons, a 46-year-old Christian father of two and respected PCSO with North Yorkshire Police, relates how he attended a mandatory training day on race, religion and culture. Trainers spent several minutes marching up and down the room chanting "Islam is a religion of peace" repeatedly. A Muslim sergeant then spoke about his faith and invited questions in what was presented as a "safe space" where "there was no such thing as a bad question."

Salmons asked what the sergeant, as a peaceful Muslim, thought about the situation in Gaza and atrocities carried out by Hamas and other groups in the name of Islam. He also asked what jihad meant to him. The discussion was civil. The sergeant later invited Salmons for coffee to continue the conversation privately.

Salmons brought a book on the topic to work. Colleagues photographed it in his locker and reported him as a risk. An inspector then suspended him, declaring "I don't like your beliefs." Salmons noted the obvious double standard: no inspector would ever say that to a Muslim officer.

He was suspended on full pay for months, resigned under pressure in April 2025, and faced gross misconduct proceedings. Supported by the Christian Legal Centre, he appealed. Chief Constable Tim Forber overturned the dismissal before Salmons had even finished presenting his case. There was no apology and the episode devastated his family.

"I loved my job and I was good at it. I was well respected as a PCSO and my colleagues said they loved working with me and couldn't understand what was happening. But an overzealous inspector took against me and that was the end of my career, even though I had done nothing wrong," he related.

"It devastated me and my family. For months we lived in total uncertainty, with my reputation being shredded in secret. I resigned not because I had done anything wrong, but because the silence, the delay and the pressure became unbearable for my wife and daughters," Salmons added.

This is the new reality inside parts of British policing: open discussion of uncomfortable facts about Islamist ideology is treated as career-ending wrongthink, while entire days are devoted to chanting slogans and centring one faith above others.

The same ideological pressures are visible in operational failures. In the Henry Nowak case, an 18-year-old white British student was stabbed five times. He told responding officers he had been stabbed and could not breathe. Instead of treating him as a medical emergency, officers handcuffed him after his attacker falsely claimed racism. The attacker was allowed to walk away. An inquest is examining whether the handcuffing contributed to Nowak's death.

The police watchdog investigated itself and declared no wrongdoing.

Serving and former Hampshire officers later admitted the mandatory DEI training played a role. They told former Home Secretary Suella Braverman they had "it drummed into us about our white privilege and unconscious bias." One described the outsourced trainer as "deeply hateful of white people and our culture."

Meanwhile, shocking street interviews and bodycam footage show officers across forces admitting they will arrest people for speech that causes offence if an allegation is made - including phrases such as "send them all home." In one Birmingham incident, officers restrained a light-skinned suspect while a crowd of young men from ethnic minority backgrounds kicked and struck him; the police did not intervene to protect the suspect.

There has been a collapse in police standards:

These are the predictable result of years of diversity training that reframes native Britons, especially white ones, as inherent problems and elevates subjective feelings of offence above evidence and equal protection.

Into this crisis steps Keir Starmer. When US Vice President JD Vance directly addressed the Henry Nowak murder and the broader pattern, Starmer's team responded by once again accusing outsiders of interference.

A No 10 spokesman said: "In recent days we have seen people trying to interfere in our democracy and seeking to stir up division on our streets. The Nowak family are grieving after Henry's horrific murder. They have said they do not want his death to be used to create further division, hatred or tension. We should be respecting their wishes. Our politics should bring people together even in the most terrible of circumstances. That is who we are as a country."

Downing Street also rejected "any suggestion of two-tier policing."

Vance had stated the uncomfortable truth: "Henry Nowak died the same way a civilization dies: abandoned, handcuffed by authorities who neither trusted nor cared for him, and accused of hate crimes he did not commit. His murder is as tragic as it is enraging. He should still be alive today, and he would be if the last few generations of European elites had stood their ground against the politics of self-hatred and the mass invasion of migrants, many of whom despise the West and the people who love it."

He added: "Each time a life like his is lost, the proper response - the only response - is righteous anger. One of the most important things the Trump administration has proven to the world is that stopping the flow of mass migration and defending national sovereignty is a matter of political will and leadership. Anything else is an excuse."

Starmer's outrage rings hollow. The same voices now demanding silence on UK failures spent years commenting on American policing cases. The real division comes from policies that import incompatible cultures at scale, shield certain ideologies from scrutiny, and punish officers who notice the consequences.

Starmer now brands anyone linking such failures to mass migration and ideological capture as "stirring up division." Britain's police forces have been turned into enforcers of protected ideologies rather than impartial protectors of the public.

Luke Salmons was punished for treating a "safe space" as genuinely open. Henry Nowak paid with his life while officers prioritised a racism narrative drilled into them by ideologues. Thousands more officers stay silent for fear of the same fate. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister's response to criticism is to attack the messengers.

Equal justice, free inquiry inside the police, and honest discussion of the cultural and demographic realities driving these failures are not optional extras. They are the minimum requirements for a functioning civilisation. Anything less is managed decline dressed up as compassion.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 10:30

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Realizing Their Largest Losses On Record; Most Oversold Since 2018 Collapse

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Realizing Their Largest Losses On Record; Most Oversold Since 2018 Collapse

After this week's bloodbath...

Bitcoin is now flashing its most oversold signal since 2018, raising the odds of a relief rebound toward $70,000 in the coming weeks.

The extremely oversold reading followed a roughly 30% decline in BTC over the past month, as geopolitical riskshigher oil pricesfading hopes for a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut, and panic over Strategy’s latest Bitcoin sale weighed on sentiment.

In addition, there was some online chatter seems to speculate that retail investors may be selling crypto to chase the biggest IPO ever.

The Elon Musk-owned rockets, satellite and AI company SpaceX is selling up to 30% of its record $75 billion offering straight to retail investors through Robinhood, Fidelity and Charles Schwab, more than three times the slice a typical IPO sets aside for individuals.

The roadshow opened Thursday already oversubscribed, with more orders than shares on offer, Bloomberg reported. It is offering shares at a $1.8 trillion valuation.

Bitcoin fell roughly 16% over the same timespan and briefly traded below $60,000 before recovering to around $61,000.

Oversold readings this extreme often appear near seller-exhaustion zones where short-term buyers begin positioning for a relief rebound.

In 2018, the collapse was triggered in large part by the SEC's regulatory crackdown on ICOs, announcing its first civil penalties against Paragon and CarrierEQ/Airfox. But, the 2018 bear market was already underway due to the bursting of the 2017 ICO bubble, regulatory uncertainty (China bans, etc.), exchange hacks, and fading retail hype. November was more of a capitulation phase than a new shock.

In 2020, Bitcoin’s RSI dropped to around 15.56 before BTC rebounded by about 50%, helped by the Federal Reserve’s emergency shift to near-zero interest rates and large-scale bond purchases. 

In February 2026, for instance, BTC’s daily RSI dropped to around 15.86 while price held above the $60,000 support area. The signal preceded a nearly 30% recovery toward $82,850.

Following bitcoin's worst week in two years, Strategy(MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor published a framework on X, arguing that the Bitcoin community is evolving into four distinct ideological camps.

As CoinDesk reports, rather than viewing these groups as competitors, he presents them as complementary forces that will collectively shape bitcoin’s future.

  • The first group, Bitcoin Maximalists, sees Bitcoin as the ultimate monetary breakthrough. They believe bitcoin has already solved the problem of digital scarcity and offers superior property rights, protection from inflation, and economic empowerment. Their focus is conviction: bitcoin is not one crypto asset among many, but the dominant digital monetary network.

  • The second group, Bitcoin Capitalists, views Bitcoin as a form of digital capital that should be integrated into the global economy. They support corporate treasury adoption, institutional custody, bitcoin-backed securities, lending markets, and broader financial infrastructure. Their goal is to expand bitcoin's reach by embedding it into existing economic systems rather than replacing them.

  • The third group, Bitcoin Technologists, focuses on improving the protocol. They argue that Bitcoin must continue to evolve to address challenges in scalability, privacy, usability, security, and future threats such as quantum computing. While they support innovation, Saylor notes that changes to bitcoin's base layer must be approached cautiously to avoid unintended consequences.

  • The fourth group, Bitcoin Fundamentalists, prioritize protecting bitcoin's original principles: decentralization, self-custody, immutability, censorship resistance, and individual sovereignty. They are wary of excessive institutional influence, financialization, and protocol changes that could compromise Bitcoin's core characteristics.

Saylor's central argument is that Bitcoin needs all four perspectives. Maximalists provide conviction, Capitalists drive adoption, Technologists ensure long-term resilience, and Fundamentalists safeguard the protocol's integrity.

Saylor argues that Bitcoin's most successful path lies in a balance among these four forces.

As CoinTelegraph reports, Bitcoin has fulfilled two of three key conditions to spark the next BTC price “rally,” new analysis says.

Bitcoin price comeback hinges on US, Korea demand

Bitcoin whale traders are laying the foundations for BTC price relief, even as BTC/USD plumbs two year lows.

In an X post on Friday, trader CW confirmed that Bitcoin whales on both Hyperliquid and Bitfinex are signaling a market rebound.

BTC/USD long positions on Bitfinex. Source: CW/X

CW notes that Hyperliquid whales have adopted a “bullish stance” on the market, while on Bitfinex, long positions have tailed off. The latter is a classic sign that an uptrend is due next.

“What remains is for the Kimchi Premium and Coinbase Premium to turn positive,” he commented.

The Coinbase Premium is the difference in price between Coinbase’s and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs and has been mostly negative in 2026.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

A negative premium reflects weak US demand, while the Kimchi Premium monitors the South Korean exchange sector.

Once demand returns across the board, Bitcoin has a better chance of reentering a sustainable uptrend.

CW acknowledged that the Kimchi Premium has already “decreased significantly” versus earlier in the week.

Bitcoin starts its latest "bottoming out" phase

As Cointelegraph reported, consensus overall favors a macro bottoming phase playing out for BTC/USD next.

The week has seen the pair touch a key bear-market trend line in the form of its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) — another essential ingredient in a bottom formation.

“Bitcoin has only just started deviating below the 200-week SMA,”  trader and analyst Rekt Capital emphasized to X followers on Friday.

“The significance of this is that historical Bear Market Bottoming out formations have started to develop via such deviations.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Earlier, trader Leviathan described BTC price action as copying the 2022 bear market "almost perfectly."

Additionally, CoinTelegraph notes that short-term bitcoin holders are realizing their largest losses on record, according to Checkonchain data cited by crypto analyst Scott Melker.

The short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio has dropped to a new all-time low, falling below levels seen in previous Bitcoin drawdowns.

Bitcoin short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio vs. price. Source: Checkonchain

The metric tracks whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or loss. A deeply negative reading means newer holders are exiting below their cost basis, signaling panic selling.

Melker also noted that roughly 5.3 million BTC held by long-term holders is now underwater, above the post-FTX peak and the highest level since the March 2020 COVID crash.

Similar stress has appeared near past capitulation zones. Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 after FTX before rallying roughly 690% to around $126,000 in 2025. After the COVID crash, BTC rose about 1,700% from $3,800 to nearly $69,000.

"Sentiment has tracked price almost perfectly," Melker said, adding:

"Traders were euphoric at the May peak, then hit peak despair on June 3. That’s usually when the bottom is close. Usually."

And finally, bitcoin bears piled aggressively into short positions as BTC price slid to $60,000, raising the question: Will the $2.6 billion in new short leverage lead to an upside squeeze?

The Bitcoin (BTC) crash to $61,100 on Friday wiped out $335 million in leveraged long positions. However, after a 21% decline in Bitcoin's price, bulls might have set a perfect trap as negative market sentiment intensified. Bearish positions built up heavily between $63,000 and $66,000, setting the stage for a potential $2.6 billion short squeeze.

Estimated cumulative Bitcoin liquidation at major exchanges, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Estimated liquidations for a further 8% drop in Bitcoin to $57,000 from $62,000 stand at $1.2 billion. In contrast, a rally to $66,000 would put $2.6 billion of short positions at risk. This potential squeeze might provide enough fuel to revive buyer confidence following a record-breaking 13-day streak of net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

The minor $3 million net inflow on Thursday could represent a temporary breathing room after 15 days of selling that drained $5.1 billion. It remains too early to conclude that momentum has officially flipped in favor of the bulls. Ultimately, if bears kept their leverage low and played conservatively, the actual threat of a massive short squeeze might be minimal.

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

A neutral funding rate typically ranges between 6% and 12%, with longs paying to keep their positions open. The current negative 2% Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate suggests growing confidence among bears. Thus, even if it takes time for Bitcoin to reclaim the $66,000 level, bulls have fully deleveraged, reducing downside risk.

Nasdaq 100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has severely underperformed the Nasdaq 100 index, but the tech sector is beginning to display weakness after Broadcom (AVGO US) closed down 12.6% Thursday, erasing $280 billion in market value. The company trimmed its AI chip sales forecast for the second half of 2026, putting investors on alert.

Impact of the tech sector IPOs and Strategy’s 32 BTC sale

Other prominent names in the AI sector also felt the impact. Micron (MU US) traded down 7.8% while Arm (ARM US) dropped 4.5%. With highly anticipated IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI in sight, investors likely opted to raise cash ahead of those offerings. Analysts claim this liquidity drain also contributed to Bitcoin's recent weakness.

Source: X/dgt10011

Jeff Park, partner at ParaFi Capital and Bitwise advisor, argues that the AI sector is draining money from other investments as the market becomes a “hot ball of money” that everyone suddenly “has to own”. However, Park reminds that once this period of AI mania blows off, capital will eventually rotate back to Bitcoin as its discounted valuation works in its favor.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin’s weakness stems from AI sector hype, excessive confidence from bears poses a major risk once spot Bitcoin ETF inflows pick up or the fear surrounding a recent 32 BTC sale from Strategy (MSTR US) dissipates.

A rally back to $66,000 might seem unlikely at first glance, but a sudden short squeeze could quickly shift momentum in favor of the bulls.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 09:55

Europe 2.0, Beyond Brussels: The End Of The European Union As We Know It

Europe 2.0, Beyond Brussels: The End Of The European Union As We Know It

Authored by Frank-Christian Hansel via American Greatness,

Europe has reached the end of an era. Not the end of its history, but the end of its false form. For decades, the European Union served as the great substitute project of a continent that no longer dared to think politically. It promised peace without power, order without a people, unity without roots, and prosperity without cost. That was its founding lie, and it was a lie from the very beginning.

Political order does not grow out of procedural routines, commission papers, or moral self-incantation. It grows out of peoples, interests, borders, loyalties, and the willingness to defend what is one’s own. Legitimate authority rests on a people and its consent, not on an apparatus and its expertise. That older idea—that government draws its life from the governed rather than from the competence of its administrators—is precisely what Brussels has spent two generations trying to administer away.

That is why today’s EU is not the high point of European history but its bureaucratic state of exhaustion. It is too centralized to be free and too artificial to be binding. It commands an immense body of rules and possesses no sustaining political soul. It has institutions, but not the kind of historically grown legitimacy that holds a community together across generations.

And so it answers every crisis with the same reflex: more centralization, more redistribution, more standardization, more discipline. What is sold as the solution is only the problem enlarged.

Europe is not failing because there is too little Brussels. Europe is failing because there is too much Brussels. It is failing because of a political class that no longer sees the continent as a historical space but as an object of administration. It is failing because of an ideology that treats every organically grown difference as a defect and therefore regards peoples, traditions, and national particularities as raw material to be processed. And it is failing because of a functional elite that has learned to disguise power as morality and to pass off its own interests as universal values.

There is a name for this kind of governance: the administrative state—the permanent, unelected layer that survives every election, answers to no voter, and grows whether the public wants it to or not. Brussels is that layer raised to the continental power and freed from even the inconvenience of a national electorate. There is no European demos to vote the managers out. That is not a flaw in the design. It is the design.

The real scandal of Europe today is not even its material mismanagement but its intellectual arrogance. The Union behaves as though it could suspend history—as though cultures could be harmonized like technical standards, as though political loyalty could be decreed the way one issues a packaging regulation. As though a continent of radically different historical experiences, economic structures, demographic trajectories, and security realities could be pressed into one standardized form without damage. Yet the damage is already visible. The EU is not unifying Europe. It is wearing it down.

To see why, it helps to return to a text that saw the whole thing coming. In 2011, long before today’s disruptions, the German social scientist Gunnar Heinsohn published an essay whose title I have borrowed and broadened here: “Europa 2.0: Neuzuschnitt der Alten Welt” (Europe 2.0: Recutting the Old World). It was written in the first panic of the euro rescues, and it has aged with uncomfortable precision.

Heinsohn’s argument was not, in the first place, a complaint about Brussels. It was an argument about arithmetic. He began with the chain of liabilities that the productive European middle class—the net taxpayers, the people who put in more than they take out—had quietly been made to guarantee. First, the bank rescues of 2008. Then the Greek bailout and the great euro backstops of 2010, which shielded bondholders and the comfortable classes of the periphery at the expense of taxpayers who were never asked. Then the implicit guarantees extended to the aging, shrinking states of the European East. And beneath all of it, an ever-growing domestic population to be supported for life. The decisive point was simple and merciless: when all these promises—upward, downward, and outward—come due at once, no one will be left to bail out the people who were made to do the bailing.

The mechanism is general. A government that collectivizes debt, anonymizes liability, and blurs responsibility will always end by taxing the people who never agreed to the bad decisions of others. Heinsohn merely showed that the European Union had written this principle into its very constitution. Any order that treats difference primarily as a financing problem must degenerate into a transfer machine. And a transfer machine is, sooner or later, politically hated—because it morally expropriates the productive and politically infantilizes the weak, rewarding neither virtue nor reform but only dependency. What it produces in the end is not solidarity but resentment: a bureaucratically managed exhaustion of the common good.

But Heinsohn’s deeper move was to set this fiscal machine on top of a demographic one—and here the argument becomes genuinely radical. The transfers are not merely unjust; they are mathematically doomed, because the population expected to honor them is collapsing. Across much of Europe, and most severely in the East, birth rates have run far below replacement for two generations. The productive base shrinks while the dependent base grows and ages. You cannot underwrite an expanding empire of guarantees with a contracting nation of guarantors. The numbers do not forgive ideology.

From this, Heinsohn drew a conclusion that polite Europe still refuses to say aloud: not all human capital is equal, and a civilization that loses its capacity to attract and cultivate talent does not stay rich for long. Innovation is decided at the top of the distribution, by the density of the highly capable, not by raising the average.

Importing large numbers of low-skill dependents, he argued, costs billions and replaces not a single first-rate mind, while a society that selects for ability—as the Swiss and the Danes already do—renews itself. Strip away the provocation and a plainer proposition remains: a serious country runs immigration in its own interest, as a selective system, choosing the people it needs rather than absorbing whoever happens to arrive. A civilization unwilling to reproduce itself has, in any case, already mortgaged its own future. Whatever one makes of these claims, Heinsohn’s 2011 essay reads today less like a period piece than like a forecast.

What, then, is the alternative? Heinsohn’s answer was not “more Europe,” and it was not “back to the nation-states of 1914.” It was a recutting—a deliberate sorting of the continent into political spaces that can actually function, each organized around two hard criteria: a currency that is genuinely sound and a society genuinely attractive to the talent it needs.

His model for both was not an abstraction. It was a sort of Switzerland.

Consider what Heinsohn admired in it. Its central bank does not monetize the debt of badly run governments; it will not take their paper as collateral and will not buy it—which is exactly why a country of fewer than nine million can hold a reserve-grade currency. Sound money, enforced by the refusal to bail anyone out. Its cantons do not subsidize one another into permanent dependency; there is no grand equalization scheme shuffling money from the competent to the connected. Instead, the cantons compete—for innovative firms, for capable workers, for investment—and grow their revenue by winning that competition rather than by lobbying for a larger share of someone else’s. Tax competition, fiscal discipline, and federalism as a sport rather than a shakedown. And immigration authority sits at the local level: it is the communes, not a distant central ministry, that decide who settles where—which is why the children of Swiss immigrants tend to perform like Swiss children rather than like a permanent underclass parked wherever a bureaucrat finds room.

The list of features is easy to state: sound money, decentralized authority, local control over who settles where, tax competition in place of redistribution, and a central government that coordinates only the few things that genuinely must be coordinated and leaves the rest to the level closest to the decision. The European word for this is subsidiarity. Heinsohn’s quiet provocation was to note where it actually survives—not in the European Union, but in the small, stubborn confederation that the Union spent two decades trying to fine, pressure, and squeeze into compliance.

Heinsohn then took the principle to its conclusion and asked what Europe would look like if it were organized by those criteria rather than by inherited borders. The criteria themselves are the point, and they are worth stating plainly, because they describe a direction rather than a destination:

A viable space, in his account, is one that can secure its own sound currency without monetizing anyone’s debt; one attractive enough to draw and keep the talent it needs rather than merely the dependents it acquires; one governed closely enough to its people that consent is real and not merely assumed; and one freed from open-ended liability for the failures of others. Spaces that can meet those tests cohere on their own. Spaces that cannot have to be held together by transfers and decree—which is the very condition that Europe is now exhausting itself trying to maintain.

From this, he sketched a deliberately provocative map—not a forecast and not a plan, but a way of making the criteria concrete. He imagined the continent re-associating into a handful of post-national economic and cultural spaces, sorted by affinity and by their capacity to meet those tests:

A northern federation gathering the Scandinavian countries with the prosperous German north. An Alpine federation built around the Swiss core, drawing in the wealthy regions of southern Germany, Austria, and northern Italy that already share its economic temperament. A revived commonwealth across the old Polish-Lithuanian space to the east. A Mediterranean union with its own southern currency and its own vocation, reaching from the Iberian Atlantic to the eastern shore of the sea. And where the old centers of the postwar order remained, a residual western bloc around Berlin, Paris, and London. He even allowed himself the heresy of supposing that productive regions might one day choose, politically, which space to belong to—that belonging itself might follow function rather than inheritance.

I set this out as Heinsohn set it out: as a thought experiment offered to clarify a direction—not as anyone’s program, and certainly not as mine. Its value lies not in the borders it draws but in the question it forces. Political belonging is not a law of nature fixed forever by the cartographers of 1815, and spaces that generate neither real sovereignty nor genuine loyalty have no claim to permanence simply because they happen to exist. Heinsohn noted, dryly, that his redrawn map was the conservative, earthbound option—far more grounded than the libertarian dream of seasteading, of escaping onto artificial islands beyond the reach of any government at all. When the sober alternative is a recut continent, and the radical one is floating cities in international waters, you have a fair measure of how exhausted the inherited order has become.

The usable core of all this is not the map, but the principle, and the principle is what I want to carry forward. Europe should no longer be conceived as a project of uniformity but as a system of differentiated political spaces. This is not a regression into petty-state fragmentation. It is the overdue recognition of European reality. The continent has always been most productive when it combined diversity with form—when its political units stayed manageable, legitimate, and capable of acting, and broader cooperation happened only where it genuinely made sense. It grew weak whenever it manufactured institutions that produced neither real sovereignty nor genuine belonging.

A new Europe would therefore begin with a ruthless disentangling. Everything that does not absolutely require continental regulation goes back to sovereign states—not out of nostalgia, but out of reason. Border protection, major infrastructure corridors, selected security cooperation, raw-material and energy security, and certain trade questions: these may need joint coordination. But cultural policy, social policy, identity questions, vast stretches of economic and regulatory law, and above all the question of democratic self-government do not belong to a supranational apparatus. Wherever politics becomes existential, the decision must move back toward the people and the state.

This is also where the deepest and most delicate point lies, the one that separates a serious continental order from a managed bloc. Europe can think as a continent only if it stops organizing itself around a permanent architecture of enemies. An order built primarily against Russia is, in the long run, not a European order at all;

it is the strategic extension of outside interests carried out on European soil. A viable continental order would have to find a way to include Russia rather than excommunicate it forever.

This is not sentimental Russophilia, and it is not a denial that real conflicts exist. It is the recognition of a basic fact of geopolitics: a continent that permanently writes its largest eastern power off the map turns itself into the forefield of others. Peace does not come from moral outrage. It comes from a durable order of power, interests, and space—balanced security interests, limited spheres of influence, and reorganized economic interdependence. Whoever defines Russia out of Europe defines Europe as a geopolitically incomplete space, dependent for its security on decisions made elsewhere. And a continent that will not defend, fund, or even define itself can hardly be surprised when its allies begin to ask why they should keep doing so on its behalf.

And here Heinsohn’s monetary intuition returns one last time. He imagined that even the names of currencies could keep a European feeling alive—a Nordic crown, an Alpine franc, and an eastern and a western and a Mediterranean euro, competing for international trust. Strip away the specifics, and the principle is straightforward: competition disciplines money as it disciplines everything else. A single currency imposed on radically unequal economies is not a symbol of unity. It is a mechanism for converting other people’s indiscipline into your own inflation.

What follows from all this is a single European principle: cooperation without fusion. Proximity without centralism. Continentality without empire. Europe would no longer be a union of ideological conformity but a confederation of historic peoples and political spaces—able to breathe again because not everything would have to be forced to the same institutional, economic, and moral temperature. In place of harmonization at any price: the freedom to shape one’s own order. In place of integration as an end in itself: cooperation grounded in shared interests. In place of a normative superstate: a Europe of different speeds, forms, and focal points.

And that, precisely, is the only road to genuine European sovereignty. Europe will not become sovereign because Brussels accumulates more powers. It will become sovereign only when its states and peoples recover real political substance and form alliances on that basis. Sovereignty requires capabilities, not rhetoric—industrial, military, technological, and cultural self-assertion. A Europe that obsesses over censorship and regulation at home while failing to secure its borders, its energy, and its strategic infrastructure abroad is not sovereign. It is a normative colossus on geopolitical clay feet.

This is where the mask of European moralism finally falls away. The Union speaks of democracy while narrowing the range of permissible opinion. It speaks of diversity while pursuing cultural conformity. It speaks of peace while manufacturing new lines of confrontation through ideological bloc logic. It speaks of openness while losing control of its borders. It speaks of resilience while making itself dependent. None of this is an accident. It is the logical result of a project that replaced political reality with normative self-staging.

The alternative is not a naive nationalism but a European realism, a realism that understands that peoples do not vanish because elites find them embarrassing; that spaces do not lose their meaning because technocrats redefine them as functional zones; that history does not end because a bureaucracy tries to regulate it away; and that order endures only where freedom, belonging, and responsibility are brought back together.

Europe therefore does not need a cosmetic correction of its institutions. It needs a change of political form: away from a morally charged administrative union and toward an order of the continent; away from abstract universal ideology and toward a concrete civilizational politics; and away from the permanent effort to define the European against the very conditions that made Europe possible. Europe must stop trying to emancipate itself from its own inheritance and learn again to draw strength from it.

Only then could today’s zone of crisis become a historical space once more: a Europe no longer under the guardianship of its own apparatus; a Europe that does not treat every internal difference as a threat or every external border as a moral failing; a Europe that takes itself seriously as a continent—plural in its forms, clear in its borders, sober in its interests, and resolved to defend itself.

The time of the Union as we know it is running out. The only question is whether Europe will shape this transition itself—or whether it will be torn apart by the contradictions of its own artificial construction and have its place in the world decided by others.

The alternative is clearer than many care to admit:

Either Europe becomes political again - or it remains an apparatus until other powers decide its place in the world.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 08:10

Most Teens Aren't Going To Social Media For Politics

Most Teens Aren't Going To Social Media For Politics

Teens turn to social media for multiple purposes: to catch up with friends, for entertainment and to connect with others over similar interests.

However, as Statista's Anna Fleck reports a possible misconception, however, is that many are going to platforms such as Instagram, Snapchat and TikTok for politics.

According to a recent survey of 1,458 teenagers in the United States, conducted between September 25 and October 9, under one in three respondents said that keeping up with politics or political issues was a main personal draw towards each of the respective social media platforms.

 Most Teens Aren't Going to Social Media for Politics | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

While most teens said that politics was not one of the main reasons for using the apps, U.S. teens were most likely to turn to TikTok and Instagram for political content (29 percent and 28 percent, respectively, said they would), followed by Snapchat (19 percent).

More popular reasons to use TikTok were entertainment (96 percent) and to know what’s going on with family and friends (86 percent).

When it comes to social media platforms as a source for news, then TikTok was also more commonly chosen over the other two.

Still, under half of respondents (45 percent) picked it as a main reason for using the platform, followed by 39 percent for Instagram and 26 percent for Snapchat.

Pew analysts found that Black teens were more likely than white and Hispanic teens to turn to TikTok for news, product recommendations and keeping up with athletes or celebrities and connecting with others.

Meanwhile, white teens on Snapchat were most likely to message people every day.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 07:35

A Serious Country Does Not Swap Its Greatest Leader On Banknotes For Little Animals

A Serious Country Does Not Swap Its Greatest Leader On Banknotes For Little Animals

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

The Bank of England has now admitted the quiet part out loud. Historical figures including Winston Churchill were removed from future banknotes after researchers told officials they were "elitist and divisive."

The move replaces British legends with wildlife in a calculated step to sideline national heroes and accelerate cultural replacement.

This is not a neutral design update. It is institutional capture in action, where the man who rallied Britain against Nazi tyranny gets sidelined because focus groups and consultants found him too problematic for modern sensitivities and would prefer to look at a Fox or a hedgehog instead.

The revelation aligns precisely with plans first laid out months earlier. Back in March, the Bank announced it would phase out portraits of Churchill on the £5 note, Jane Austen on the £10, JMW Turner on the £20, and Alan Turing on the £50. In their place would come native British wildlife, plants, and landscapes.

King Charles III would remain on the front of the notes. Officials claimed the shift followed a public consultation with over 44,000 responses, where around 60 percent supposedly favored nature themes for security reasons and to celebrate the environment.

Critics at the time called the idea absurd and bonkers. They warned it represented a war on history and showed the Bank had been captured by progressive ideology. One former business minister said notes should honor the historical giants who shaped the nation rather than fuzzy animals.

Another asked what came next - squirrels running the economy. Observers noted it fit a wider pattern of erasing or downplaying Britain's past under the banner of progress and diversity.

That pattern includes London museums draping portraits to "reclaim Caribbean history," the removal of Shakespeare, Thatcher, and Churchill artworks from 10 Downing Street in favor of pieces by artists with Caribbean ties, Cambridge panels labeling Churchill a white supremacist whose empire was supposedly worse than the Nazis, and a London primary school renaming "Churchill House" after Marcus Rashford to promote diversity. Statues of Churchill have faced vandalism and calls for removal, including during pro-Palestine protests earlier this year. Each step chips away at the symbols that once unified national memory.

Now the June reporting makes the motive unmistakable. Research commissioned by the Bank concluded that figures such as Churchill, Alan Turing, and Jane Austen were "contentious and not representative of the UK's cultural and natural diversity." Officials received advice to replace the portraits with nature images because historical figures represented "a backward-looking vision of the UK that carries too great a risk of division and controversy."

The Bank has insisted the decision was not driven by that specific research but by an earlier poll showing public preference for nature. Yet the Freedom of Information details tell a different story about how the process unfolded behind closed doors.

A public consultation is currently running on the wildlife shortlist. Proposed replacements include an owl, hedgehog, badger, or common frog. One commentator summed up the national mood: "We are not a serious country anymore."

Some of the animals under consideration are not even native to Britain. That detail alone exposes the move as more than harmless environmental appreciation. It functions as a psyop to further erode British culture - stripping away recognizable national symbols and replacing them with generic or imported imagery that weakens any sense of rooted identity.

This fits the same ideological framework that has infected other institutions. DEI priorities and critical race theory obsessions treat any strong assertion of British heritage as inherently suspect. The man who helped defeat fascism is recast as "divisive" while the focus shifts to animals that supposedly better reflect "cultural and natural diversity." The result is a currency that no longer celebrates the people who built and defended the country. It celebrates detachment instead.

The broader assault continues without pause. Schools, museums, government buildings, and now the Bank of England itself participate in softening, diluting, and apologizing for the past. Historical giants are judged not by their achievements but by whether they pass modern committee tests on representation. When they fail, they are quietly retired in favor of whatever the latest advisory group deems safe and inclusive.

Britain's wartime leader did not save the nation so that unelected researchers and captured bureaucracies could later declare him unfit for the money supply. Yet that is exactly what has happened. The same institutions that owe their continued existence to Churchill's stand now treat his image as a liability.

A country that systematically removes its heroes from public view is not evolving. It is forgetting how to value itself. The Bank of England's choice to prioritize "non-divisive" wildlife over the figures who actually shaped the United Kingdom sends a clear message: national pride is now considered too risky for everyday transactions.

Britons who still believe their history is worth defending have every reason to push back. This is not about banknote design. It is about whether the nation retains the confidence to honour the people and events that made it possible. Replacing Churchill with a hedgehog is not progress. It is surrender dressed up as sensitivity.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 07:00

An Emerging Market Crisis In Oil-Poor Asia?

An Emerging Market Crisis In Oil-Poor Asia?

Authored by Satyajit Das via NewIndiaExpress,

Reliable availability of cheap energy is, as the Iran war highlights, essential to modern economies and societies, at least for the foreseeable future. Shocks divide the world into the oil haves and oil have-nots.

Alongside higher energy prices, shortages of petrochemical derived chemicals will affect agriculture, mining, plastics, textiles, semi-conductors and construction. Given that even if the conflict was to end with a lasting agreement it would take months or years for restoration of normality, the effects are likely to be severe.

Europe, already affected by their decision to cut-off Russian gas supplies, and Japan, are affected. But the major consequences will be felt across oil poor South and East Asia.

 

The extent of the damage depends on pre-existing vulnerabilities, including insufficient currency reserves, poor public finances, trade imbalances, high debt levels, especially foreign currency denominated borrowings, reliance on overseas capital, narrow industrial bases, and poor contingency plans.

The Table below sets out some key vital statistics

Notes: all figures are mainly for 2025

For energy importers, supply disruptions work through several pathways. Import costs rise flowing through into the economy. It most immediate manifestation is a widening current account deficit.

Given the pervasive impact of transport costs, prices increase across the board. Rising input expenses for businesses affect profitability and, ultimately, viability. As essentials cost more, the fall in surplus income decreases consumption slowing the economy with resultant unemployment. Tax revenues fall and welfare spending kick in worsening government budgets. This is frequently aggravated by vote buying subsidies, frequently for fuel costs, and transfers to alleviate cost of living pressures.

Financially, the most obvious signs are a weakening of the currency and falling asset prices. Asian currencies are down by 5 to 6% from the start of the Iran war. Asian stock markets, at least those without exposure to semi-conductor stocks like South Korea and Taiwan, have fallen. Volatility in asset markets is very high.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-war-graphic-2026-05-27/

Typically, foreign investment inflows slow. Portfolio investors in equities and bonds exit as asset values translated into their base currency decrease. Direct investment falls reflects the poorer prospects. Banks face higher non-performing loans from the weaker economy as well as lower loan demand. Where reliant on foreign borrowings to supplement domestic deposits, the availability of funding is affected.

Inflation places pressure on interest rates which further slows the economy and exacerbates the economic and financial stresses. The current crisis is a textbook case of how oil shocks work through economies. Other factors, including the now-ignored Trump tariffs and economic warfare in the form of trade restrictions and sanctions, will exacerbate the problems. The risk of an economic and financial crisis in many of the affected countries is now elevated.

What is to be done? Like the Irish farmer’s direction to a traveller: “I wouldn’t start from here!”

The classic policy prescription is to let the currency devalue and force the necessary adjustments. An alternative is to intervene in the currency markets and simultaneously use higher short-term interest rates to support the exchange rate. The most extreme measure is for governments to restrict capital movement and, as an option, implement prices and income controls. Each has advantages and disadvantages.

Depreciation of the currency should, in theory, have the effect of reducing imports by choking off purchases assuming the application of the normal laws of supply and demand.

It should simultaneously boost exports. It forces the necessary adjustment of living standards, often brutally particularly vulnerable low-income groups.

In practice, its effectiveness depends on several factors, particularly the elasticity of demand for a country’s imports and exports. If the import is vital, like energy, and not replaceable or the cost can be passed on, foreign purchases may not decrease. Improvements in export volumes depend on the type of product and the demand sensitivity to price. It also depends on competition and substitutes. If competitors have superior products or are willing to match the prices, then volumes may not respond. This is particularly problematic when the whole emerging market complex is affected and all countries want to devalue at the same time, reducing the ability of a single country to cheapen its currency. An additional problem is the global nature of the slowdown across advanced economies, like the US and Europe, which will reduce exports demand which is central to Asian economies.

Devaluation also feeds inflation through higher import costs, unless it destroys demand which would lead to a sharp reduction in growth. A weaker currency may accelerate capital flight as investors fear losses. It creates unhelpful behaviours with importers accelerating purchases and exporters delaying conversion of foreign currency inflows. Foreign currency borrowers without any equivalent matching revenues providing a natural hedge face rising indebtedness. Emerging market businesses frequently take advantage of lower interest rates, relative to domestic funding, running the currency risk.

Intervention is money markets rarely works. It risks using up currency reserves needed to cover commercial imports or short-term debt. Historically, success requires co-operation between major central banks as in the 1985 Plaza Accord which devalued the dollar. Emerging market central banks have a poor track record. In the 1997 Asian market crisis, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia severely depleted their foreign exchange reserves in failed attempts to defend their currencies, which was fixed against the dollar. In general, where foreign currency debts and investments exceed reserves, such interventions rarely succeed.

To stem falls in the currency, central banks in India, Indonesia and the Philippines, have repeatedly intervened in currency markets drawing down foreign exchange reserves but with limited success.

Capital controls would require managing the exchange rate and restricting foreign currency inflows and outflows. They can manage a crisis to maintain economic sovereignty over exchange rates, interest rates, inflation and the banking system. In the longer-term, capital controls will deter foreign investment because investors fear loss of the freedom of repatriating funds. It often leads to a currency black market and workarounds which underline their effectiveness.

In market-based system, it is difficult to insulate an economy from external events, especially of the magnitude of the Iran war. Poorly developed domestic capital markets, which limits local supply of capital and risk management tools, impairs the ability to absorb shocks.

Many emerging market economies are also woefully unprepared. Assuming no disruption in supply chains, they have pitifully low buffer stocks or reserves. Their economies remain narrowly structured with little diversification of their industrial base. Despite a history of energy dependence and previous disturbances, there has been limited efforts to increase energy independence by conservation measures or seeking alternative sources. Investment in renewables, such as solar, wind, hydro and biofuels, remains inadequate. Even emergency plans for rapidly scaling up alternative fossil fuels, like coal, are largely absent.  In contrast, China’s forward planning has focused on building up substantial strategic oil reserves and renewable energy supplies, which now account for up to 40% of its total electricity generation and over 50% of its total installed power capacity.

Governments have encouraged magical thinking amongst citizens, encouraging them to believe that policymakers can shield them from these events. Subsidies, transfers and price controls are electorally popular, but they do not address the core problems.

Like Aesop’s grasshopper, energy deficient countries have wasted summers of abundant supplies and now find them facing a difficult winter.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/06/2026 - 23:20

Watch: More Evidence Iran Is Rapidly Restoring Its Missile Tunnels

Watch: More Evidence Iran Is Rapidly Restoring Its Missile Tunnels

President Trump has newly estimated that Iran has 21%-22% of its missiles remaining. Trump said in an interview with NBC: "They have some missiles and drones, percentage-wise maybe 21%-22% of the missiles. That's a lot, but it's not what it was before the war."

He and top White House officials had previously mused that the Iranians are working hard to reconstitute their defenses after the opening US-Israeli heavy bombing campaign of Operation Epic Fury.

The fresh statement comes on the heels of a Washington Post story last month which cited CIA estimates saying Iran still holds about 70% of its missiles and 75% of missile launchers it had before the war. So there's a likelihood that Iran still has significantly more than just 20% of its arsenal.

There's also some anecdotal evidence, and statements from the Iranians themselves, such as in the following... Watch:

The Iranians have been utilizing basic construction equipment to dig out several missile launchers and reopen subterranean tunnels tied to its missile program. 

"Iran has repaired other parts of the bases as well, including roads that the US and Israel bombed to prevent missile launchers from using them," CNN wrote last week. "Satellite images show almost all these craters have now been filled, and at two sites, even repaved."

Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the same outlet late last month that "There’s nothing to prevent the launchers from being armed with the ample stockpile of missiles that the Iranians still have."

He sought to highlight the limits of American firepower, in terms of damage, and given that it hasn't been sustained:

“The US military is good at delivering tactical successes, and entombing and suppressing the Iranian missile force is a great example of that,” said Lair.

“However, if that isn’t accompanied by a set of reasonable strategic war aims and an achievable theory of victory, it can end up being a strategic failure.”

Via AP: Zagros Mountains in central Iran, where a deep underground nuclear facility was reportedly built.

President Trump has been touting the near annihilation of Iran's arsenal, and has lately said the rest of its launch sites could be taken out in a day if he gave the order. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/06/2026 - 22:45

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