The Maine Democratic Senate Debate To Replace Platner Was - Quite Something

The field of eight candidates was split into two groups of four, running the top-tier candidates first and dishing the rest out for a second round. By the time it wrapped, these eight took turns explaining why they, specifically, are the ones who can finally unseat an incumbent who has outlasted six presidential administrations, and ended up making Graham Platner look pretty good in the process.

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows participated in the first segment. She previously challenged Collins for this same Senate seat in 2014 and lost by 37 points. She is also widely known for trying to remove Trump from the Republican primary ballot in 2024 by invoking the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause, which was shot down by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Bellows found a new way to look unprepared on stage Thursday night, as she was unable to answer simple questions about her own policy positions.

MODERATOR: "What qualifications do you have to serve in the U.S. Senate?"

Maine Democrat Ashley Webb: "I'm a songwriter and I write my own books." pic.twitter.com/csMIFkmt4Q

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 17, 2026

Asked about the military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, she attacked Collins directly, "What Susan Collins has failed to stop is a completely unstable foreign policy," she said.

Moderator Phil Hirschkorn was forced to point out the inconvenient fact that Collins voted for a war powers resolution limiting Trump's options in Venezuela back in January.

Bellows had nothing. "Forgive me," she said. "A week ago, I was on vacation on a river on the Kennebec, and I've been running for governor for a long time."

She added, "When I need to know the facts, I will," she added. "I'll do my homework."

The most amusing candidate was Ashley Webb, a trans-identifying man whose qualifications for the United States Senate are, objectively, dubious. "I ran for office several times, didn't win, but I did run. And then I'm a songwriter, and then I write my own books, and then I suppose my transparency," Webb said. "I wouldn't lie to the people and I wouldn't deceive the people like we're being deceived right now."

Webb created a viral moment by mistakenly referring to "pork bellying" instead of "pork barreling," the practice of allocating federal funds for local projects.

Checking in on the Maine Senate Debate: “I believe they called it pork bellying by cutting out the pork belly from all the bills, sure that would save a lot of money as well…” pic.twitter.com/Gv66Ks43rh

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) July 17, 2026

Another clip of Webb that has gone viral is him involves his position on transgender bathroom policy. "With the trans community, we're being dehumanized, they say that we want to hurt people. I don't want to hurt anybody. I just want to use the bathroom and if they want me to use the men's room, I will. But I don't want to be assaulted," he said.

Nobody on either panel closed the sale, and left-leaning media outlets couldn't deny it.

"The debate laid bare the reality of how difficult replacing Platner and mounting a serious challenge against Collins will be," CNN reported. "None of the candidates in Thursday night's debate could replicate the political skills that allowed Platner to emerge as a viral sensation, elbow a two-term governor out of the race and poll neck-and-neck with Collins before he ended his campaign after a woman accused him of rape - allegations he has denied. Shah's delivery was one-note and Bellows' was halting. Wood often turned to his notes. Jackson frequently cleared his throat and changed directions mid-sentence."

The candidates on stage Thursday were unprepared, uninspiring, and exactly the kind of opposition Susan Collins should be thanking her lucky stars for. Eight Democrats took the stage looking for a breakout moment and what voters got was more of a blooper reel instead.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 16:40

After Trump's 'Election Cyber-F**kery' Speech, "The Game Is Gonna Get Rough Now"...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“. . . the Democrat Party. . . are morally bankrupt nincompoops who have been beaten by the establishment like the rented mules they are. “

- Kurt Schlichter on X

Strange to relate, in last night’s speech to the nation on election chicanery, President Trump managed to both overwhelm and underwhelm public expectation.

He touched on voting machine shenanigans, registration skullduggery, cyber-fuckery, labor union toolery, ballot fraud, and especially China meddling.

Internal CIA / FBI docs at the time said that China’s policy around the 2020 US election was to “leverage all domestic and foreign elements” opposed to the President to prevent his re-election. The Intel bunch never sent that memo to the White House. They were too busy pushing fake Russia meddling, fake impeachment, and a fake Covid-19 pandemic. Then they declared the 2020 was “the most secure election in history.”

As of yesterday, the President de-classified many thousands of Intel agency documents for the public (and news media) to peruse.

And naturally, the major cable news networks (except Fox) declined to broadcast the speech.

As of Friday morning, The New York Times leads the offensive to disparage the actual news.

He’s Obsessed, that Trump!

The actual news: China hacked over 220-million voter registrations, plus social security files; manufactured and shipped tens of thousands of fake US driver’s licenses to be used in motor-voter states; and paid favored US journalists to write negative articles about Mr. Trump. The Department of Homeland Security reported 278,000 non-citizens were registered to vote in federal elections. But that number was compiled only from states that complied with DOJ demands for voter rolls. California, New York, and Illinois and many other states refused, so the number is probably more than double the DHS figure.

The big take-away was that US Intel agencies withheld all this intel from the President of the US, Mr. Trump, in the lead-up to the 2020 vote.

Yes, there really is Deep State, as seen starkly in a now-declassified memo from the then-chief of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division, one Nikki Floris, who wrote “I’m basically running a shadow government at this point” by hiding information from POTUS.

Ms. Floris is now employed as Microsoft’s Director of Insider Risk (former Deputy Attorney General under “Joe Biden,” Lisa Monaco, is President of Microsoft Global Affairs.)

According to the NY Post’s Miranda Devine, in August 2020, Nikki Floris also tried to hoodwink Senators Chuck Grassley and Rob Johnson, telling them the Hunter Biden laptop was a Russian op — a gag later ratified by fifty-one former intel officers (including five former CIA Directors) who signed the notorious October letter to the news media.

All of this activity, Mr. Trump averred, amounted to a cover-up of a conspiracy by members of the permanent bureaucracy to overthrow the government. And that is exactly why more than one federal grand jury is convened in Fort Pierce, Florida, right now, to sort out who, exactly, is going to account for these rather grave crimes. The new document release is apt to accelerate the work of US Attorneys there, since declassification is the biggest routine holdup in the process.

On the “underwhelming” side of the president’s speech, there was little mention of the swing-state ballot fraud enabled and conducted by local election officials in Fulton County, Georgia, Maricopa County, Arizona, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Antrim County, Michigan, Mesa County, Colorado, and Philadelphia, PA. But you know that the FBI raided Fulton County election headquarters months ago and seized around 700 boxes of evidence, and then reassigned 260 FBI agents to examine all the material. All that might still be to-come.

Then there is the question of the millions of dollars that Hunter Biden winkled out of China over the years before the 2020 election — records of which were stuffed in his infamous laptop, along with photos and video of his sexual exploits there — and whether Hunter’s father, Joe, was a blackmail captive of China leading up to that election. Stay tuned on that.

Altogether, Mr. Trump’s speech and document drops are obviously an effort to move election reform, the Save America Act, through Congress, where it has languished in a procedural miasma for months due to one man: Senate Majority Leader John Thune. The President’s emphasis last night on China’s election meddling is purposeful in ways not broadly apprehended, but I will tell you:

If Congress does not find a way to vote that bill out to Mr. Trump’s desk before they recess for the rest of the summer in late July, Mr. Trump will invoke an executive order under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) — Public Law 94-412; codified at 50 U.S.C. §§ 1601–1651 — requiring the fifty states to employ all the same provisions that are in the SAVE America Act for the 2026 midterm elections. Under the NEA, the federal courts cannot be used to fight or strike down the executive order; it can only be stopped by a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate.

If that is the course that this takes, you can expect Antifa and the Democratic-Socialist foot-soldiers to take to the streets this fall in a violently-amplified episode of “No Kings” demonstrations — because fair and honest elections with citizens-only voting will mean the end of the Democratic Party, and they know it. Last night’s move by President Trump is only the opening bid of a quickening game against the Deep State, and their partners-in-sedition.

The game is gonna get rough now.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 16:20

PJM Capacity Auction Results Compound "Alarm Bells": FERC Chairman Swett

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The PJM Interconnection’s just-held capacity auction cleared nearly 7 GW below its reliability target and only drew roughly 500 MW of new power supply, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Laura Swett said Thursday.

“These numbers compound the alarm bells for a call to action in PJM,” Swett said during the agency’s monthly meeting. “Am I surprised that PJM failed to deliver? No, I am not,” Swett said later during a media briefing.

However, FERC isn’t trying to “target” PJM, she said.

“This is a problem that involves people at the federal level, at the market level, the state level, the registered entities, the market participants … all the utilities, the companies there,” Swett said. “This is a very complex issue that everyone has to coalesce around, coming up with a solution.”

FERC aims to address some of the problems at a technical conference on July 23 focused on PJM’s governance issues.

“The current stakeholder process in PJM is slow where it must be fast, opaque where it must be transparent, and vulnerable to vetoes and agenda control exactly when the region needs immediate action,” Swett said.

From the conference, FERC expects to get “ideas on paper, on a record,” Swett said. “I am very optimistic that certain proposals will be front runners that are grounded in the record that we collect next week, so that there should be a more clear path forward for PJM after that.”

FERC Commissioner Lindsay See also highlighted the need for reforms at PJM, the nation’s largest grid operator, serving 67 million people in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

“PJM has to be able to get reforms across the finish line in a timely and transparent way,” See said. “Part of that also includes the need for a governance structure that can not only deliver concrete results but that can give parties the type of confidence in those reforms that’s necessary to drive investment where and when it’s needed.”

Last week, FERC Commissioner David LaCerte said the status quo at PJM was “untenable.”

Here are five other takeaways from FERC’s meeting.

Data center reliability standards

FERC set deadlines for the North American Electric Reliability Corp. to develop reliability standards for computational loads — data centers and crypto-mining operations — and the rules for registering those loads by Dec. 31. The grid watchdog is already developing those standards and rules.

FERC also directed NERC to file by March 1 a plan detailing the next steps in its standards development process for computational loads.

“I applaud NERC’s proactive efforts on these matters,” Swett said. FERC set the deadlines because “they are a great mechanism for producing results,” she said.

As part of its Large Loads Action Plan, NERC expects to issue the proposed reliability standards and draft registry criteria for public comment in August, it said Thursday.

FERC orders CAISO, SPP Western seams report

FERC ordered the California Independent System Operator and the Southwest Power Pool to file a report by Sept. 30 on how they plan to manage the seams between their markets and neighboring balancing authority areas in the West. The CAISO-run Extended Day-Ahead Market started operating in May. SPP expanded its footprint into the Western Interconnection in April, and its Markets+ initiative is expected to go live in October 2027. 

“While the increased deployment of organized markets is intended to bring substantial reliability and economic benefits to the West, the resulting seams create reliability, operational, and market efficiency hurdles that warrant proactive attention,” FERC said.

Earlier this month, CAISO President and CEO Elliot Mainzer said the grid operator was working with SPP to develop a joint operating agreement before Markets+ begins operating.

Complaint over PSE&G cost recovery advances

FERC advanced a complaint over Public Service Electric and Gas Co.’s cost recovery of a $546 million transmission project it built in New Jersey. The agency ordered an administrative law judge to conduct hearings on Public Citizen’s January complaint alleging that the costs were imprudently incurred.

In December 2024, PSE&G agreed to pay a $6.6 million fine to settle a FERC enforcement office investigation into the utility’s justifications to PJM for building the Roseland-Pleasant Valley transmission project.

FERC rejects complaint over Duke transmission rates

FERC rejected a complaint that sought to stop Duke Energy Progress from including the costs of four transmission lines that could benefit solar developers into its overall transmission rates. 

The agency dismissed arguments made by North Carolina Electric Membership Corp. in its complaint, saying, “Rolled-in rate treatment for the costs of the four … projects is consistent with longstanding Commission precedent that favors rolled-in rate treatment for integrated transmission facilities.”

FERC eyes changes to ‘hypothetical capital structure’ incentive

FERC approved a 50/50 hypothetical debt to equity capital structure for two transmission projects that Basin Electric Power Cooperative plans to build in North Dakota for about $469.3 million. FERC offers hypothetical capital structures as an incentive for transmission development.

“They can help new transmission companies secure financing for large projects and allow developers to move forward even when their actual capital structure may not yet reflect a project’s long-term financial profile,” Swett said. 

However, FERC is considering changes to the incentive, which increases consumer costs, Swett said at the agency’s meeting.

“This is a very complex topic with significant implications for financing, project development, regional planning, and customer affordability. Even small changes to utilities’ return can have significant impacts,” she said. “I am confident that working with my colleagues, we can get that balance right and ensure that our policies promote needed transmission investment while protecting consumers.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 15:40

Apple And DOJ In "Early Settlement Talks" Over 2024 Antitrust Lawsuit

Apple and the U.S. Department of Justice are reportedly in early discussions to settle the government's 2024 antitrust lawsuit against the iPhone maker, though no agreement has been reached and no trial date has been set, Bloomberg reported today.

Apple has made multiple settlement offers this year in an effort to resolve the case, but negotiations remain ongoing and could still fall apart. Neither Apple nor the DOJ commented.

The lawsuit, originally filed under the Biden administration by the Justice Department along with 19 states and the District of Columbia, accuses Apple of illegally maintaining a monopoly in the smartphone market by making it harder for competing products and services to gain traction.

Regulators pointed to restrictions involving messaging apps, smartwatches, digital wallets, cloud gaming services, and so-called "super apps," arguing the company's practices harmed developers, competitors, and consumers. Apple lost its attempt to dismiss the case in June 2025.

Since the lawsuit was filed, Apple has already made several changes that address parts of the government's complaint. The company now supports RCS messaging, allows cloud gaming apps on the App Store, has opened the iPhone's NFC payment chip to third-party developers, and introduced a framework for mini apps. Apple still does not allow the Apple Watch to work with Android devices, though it has added features that improve compatibility between iPhones and non-Apple smartwatches.

The report also comes as the Trump Justice Department has shown a greater willingness to settle antitrust cases inherited from the previous administration, arguing negotiated agreements can deliver faster consumer benefits while avoiding years of costly litigation. It remains unclear whether the state attorneys general involved in the lawsuit are participating in the settlement talks.

While the Biden Justice Department launched a series of aggressive cases against Big Tech, including lawsuits targeting Apple, Google, Amazon and Meta Platforms, Trump's DOJ has shown a greater willingness to resolve inherited cases through negotiated settlements rather than years of courtroom battles.

That doesn't necessarily mean antitrust scrutiny is disappearing, but it does suggest the administration may be more focused on securing practical concessions from technology companies than pursuing lengthy, high-profile litigation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 15:20

DOJ, DHS Launch Election Integrity Website

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Thursday launched a joint website featuring an interactive map of federal enforcement actions aimed at election security, transparency, and integrity.

“Excited to launch the joint @TheJusticeDept @DHSgov election integrity website, an interactive map showing what actions the federal government is taking to improve election security, transparency, and integrity for all Americans! Updated regularly!” Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon announced on X on July 16.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon speaks during a news conference at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The website displays a nationwide map of states and the District of Columbia, with users able to click any jurisdiction to view linked enforcement records.

The page lists Justice Department actions targeting states that fail to produce voter registration rolls.

The Civil Rights Division said the effort was to protect the right to vote by ensuring accurate rolls and removing ineligible voters.

The page urges the public to “Get involved and learn more about the division’s election-integrity enforcement actions” and to “Support Election Integrity: Help the Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security protect the vote by reporting concerns and staying informed.”

The launch comes as the division continues to press states for full voter registration lists under federal laws, including the National Voter Registration Act, the Help America Vote Act, and the Civil Rights Act of 1960. Officials have described clean rolls as essential so that every eligible citizen’s vote counts equally and without dilution.

The interactive map and linked press releases centralize the volume of recent litigation and immigration-related arrests in one place. The site will be updated regularly as additional actions are taken.

Recent Justice Department filings listed include February 2026 lawsuits against five additional states for failure to produce voter rolls; January 2026 actions targeting Virginia, Arizona, and Connecticut; and multiple 2025 cases.

DHS and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) entries detail arrests of noncitizens who allegedly voted in federal elections, including a New Jersey case and an Australian national charged with voting in multiple elections, along with a Mexican national’s guilty plea for falsely claiming U.S. citizenship.

The site opens with a quote from President Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14248, issued March 25, 2025: “Free, fair, and honest elections unmarred by fraud, errors, or suspicion are fundamental to maintaining our constitutional Republic.”

The executive order highlights that the United States does not enforce basic and necessary election protections, noting that countries like India and Brazil tie voter identification to biometric databases, whereas the United States relies on self-attestation for citizenship.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 14:40

HSBC Upgrades Apple To Buy, Sees "AI Boost" Sparking Device-Upgrade Cycle

Days after KeyBanc analysts Brandon Nispel and John Vinh downgraded Apple over concerns that soaring memory chip costs and rising iPad, Mac, and iPhone prices could spark a growth slowdown, HSBC analysts took the opposite view, upgrading the stock to a "Buy" rating to end the week.

HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson upgraded Apple to "Buy" from "Hold" on Friday morning and raised his price target to $366 from $260, telling clients that an "AI boost comes at the right moment" and could unleash a major device-upgrade cycle.

Cote-Colisson explained:

A new cycle ahead.

Thus far, we had retained a cautious approach on Apple with a Hold rating.

We had preferred other segments of the AI value chain, more prompt to exploit the bottlenecks created by the high demand in computing power, including hyperscalers or memory makers.

We think Apple is now at an operational turning point: not only can the company stay away from the (too) high capex debate (it only invests 2.5% of its 2026e sales vs 39% for hyperscalers, see page 10), we think it is also well placed to leverage its 2.5bn installed device base with its forthcoming revamped Apple Intelligence.

This AI boost comes at the right moment, when we think Apple has one of its most innovative product pipelines in place.

Cote-Colisson pointed out that Apple is at an "inflection point" as it prepares to deploy an agentic version of Siri capable of accessing information across applications and executing more complex tasks:

• New AI features coming this year represent a key catalyst for an acceleration in Apple's hardware and Services revenue
• Recent price hikes show confidence from Apple that pricing power can limit the negative impact of memory pricing on margin

HSBC expects the AI overhaul to coincide with a strong product pipeline that includes the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, a book-style foldable iPhone, an iPhone Air, a 20th-anniversary model and eventually AI-powered smart glasses. The combination could accelerate upgrades across Apple's installed base of more than 2.5 billion active devices, particularly among owners of the iPhone 15 and 16.

Putting this all together, the analyst expects the AI overhaul and robust pipeline to begin the "start of a fundamental shift that will force a faster hardware refresh across the 2.5bn+ active device installed base."

Cote-Colisson also raised Apple's 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates by 7% to 9%, including an 11% to 13% increase in his iPhone forecasts. He expects iPhone sales to rise 11.6% in fiscal 2027, compared with the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 8.3%. He also lifted his 2027 Services revenue forecast by 5.4%.

His fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate increased about 8% to $10.26, or 7.5% above consensus. Cote-Colisson expects EPS growth of roughly 16% that year, compared with a 12% median among Apple's peers.

Cote-Colisson pointed out that rising memory prices remain a significant risk: "Downside risks include competition from AI labs introducing new form factors that could challenge smartphones and a longer-than-expected global memory chip shortage compressing margins, although we believe Apple can command a significant degree of pricing power."

Earlier in the week, KeyBanc analysts Brandon Nispel and John Vinh downgraded Apple from "Sector Weight" to "Underweight" amid fears that rising device prices due to the memory crunch will hit sales in the coming quarters.

In mid-June, Apple CEO Tim Cook told the WSJ in an exclusive interview that price hikes were "unavoidable" because of the memory chip crunch.

Latest Bloomberg data shows 36 "Buy" ratings, 18 "Neutral" ratings, and 4 "Sell" ratings on the stock, with an average 12-month price target of $322.

$322 PT 

Professional subscribers can read more on Apple at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 14:25

Meta Eyes $10 Billion Deal To Lease AI Computing Power To Anthropic

Meta is standing up a cloud business to sell excess computing capacity from its massive data-center buildout, as we detailed earlier this month. The new business line would put Meta in direct competition with industry leaders such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.

Meta is in talks to rent computing power from its AI data centers to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth as much as USD 10bln over two years: NYT

Now "excess power"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 17, 2026

The New York Times reported that Meta is considering selling excess computing capacity to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth up to $10 billion over the next two years.

Here's more color from NYT:

Meta is in talks to rent computing power from its artificial intelligence data centers to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth as much as $10 billion over two years, three people with knowledge of the discussions said, a potential step toward a new A.I. business for the social networking company.

Anthropic proposed the deal in June and Meta is considering it, said the people, who were not authorized to discuss confidential conversations. While the specifics were in flux, Anthropic would pay Meta in monthly increments over the two-year period, the people said. The companies would be able to opt out of any agreement early, they added.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently acknowledged that AI agent development over the past four months "hasn't accelerated in the way we expected."

• "Agent Development Hasn't Accelerated The Way We Expected": What Zuckerberg's AI Agent Confession Means For Token Demand

The company has also said it may build more data centers than it needs based on the number of customers using its AI products. Selling excess computing power to companies such as Anthropic would open a new revenue stream and potentially alleviate investor concerns following Meta's multiyear data-center buildout spree.

"A generational transfer in free cash flow is taking place: BofA pic.twitter.com/4K9fMrs8II

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 8, 2026

It's not just Meta. Elon Musk's SpaceX, which acquired his AI startup xAI earlier this year, has been renting massive amounts of computing capacity from its Memphis data centers to Anthropic PBC. That strategy could help xAI generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2028 and $100 billion by 2030.

Amid a fast-moving AI race...

... Meta's models are nowhere to be found. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 13:45

Pentagon Chief Backs Blue Angels Pilots Following Low-Altitude Pass Over Florida Beach Crowd

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

War Secretary Pete Hegseth offered support for U.S. Navy Blue Angels pilots on Thursday after a review of a low-altitude jet maneuver over Pensacola Beach, Florida, the day before.

Dramatic video shows the U.S. Navy Blue Angels making a low-altitude flyover above Pensacola Beach, Florida, on Wednesday. Navy officials confirmed in a statement that Blue Angels leadership is "reviewing the circumstances surrounding the maneuver and conducting a thorough safety… pic.twitter.com/ZUa1ryk4X8

— ABC News (@ABC) July 15, 2026

Video posted online showed one of the demonstration jets flying unusually close to the ground during an arrival maneuver on Wednesday.

The jet kicked up sand and beach items among spectators at a “Breakfast with the Blues” event. Children were seen covering their ears with their heads bowed.

The maneuver occurred during events tied to the squadron’s 80th anniversary.

“The flyovers will continue until morale improves,” Hegseth posted on X.

The Blue Angels said it is conducting a review of the maneuver.

“The safety of our hometown community, spectators, and our pilots is our highest priority. Team leadership is reviewing the circumstances surrounding the maneuver and conducting a thorough safety review to ensure all operations adhere to strict Navy and FAA safety standards,” the squadron said in a statement.

Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said later Thursday that a flight debrief had been completed and there would be no reprimands.

“No reprimands. No firings. No problem. That’s the sound of Freedom,” Cao wrote on X. “Semper fi and Hooyah.”

Wednesday’s incident took place during preparations for the Pensacola Beach Air Show. The show features expanded performances this year for the anniversaries. Organizers predicted large crowds.

No injuries were reported. One spectator told local media she had been in attendance at the air show for 10 years and never witnessed such a pass. She said she thought the jet might hit them but called the experience amazing.

This was at least the third time in recent months that Hegseth supported pilots after aerial maneuvers that drew scrutiny over safety concerns. The Pentagon lifted suspensions of helicopter pilots who flew low over the coast of South Carolina. In March, Hegseth said Army pilots would not be punished after flying attack helicopters near singer Kid Rock’s house.

Some lawmakers criticized the maneuver.

“Aviation safety rules are written in blood. Glamorizing and excusing reckless behavior like this will only lead to more, until we reach the point where a horrific tragedy occurs because of brazen, careless rhetoric like this,” Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) said on X.

The Blue Angels were created in 1946 and perform precision maneuvers at air shows and other events. Its home base is located in Pensacola.

Military aviation is closely regulated. Low-altitude flying limits reaction time for pilots. Blue Angels operations follow strict parameters on minimum altitudes.

The review followed standard Navy procedures for deviations from flight profiles. Past investigations into demonstration squadron incidents have examined precision requirements.

The Blue Angels squadron is made up of pilots and supporting personnel who perform for millions of spectators annually. The team remains set to continue its demonstrations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 13:10

Musk Buys Florida-Based Energy Company

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Elon Musk has acquired a power company based in Jacksonville, Fla., paying $1 billion for the mobile gas-turbine provider as a possible solution to data center energy needs.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) lists Musk as the acquiring party, with New APR Energy, LLC listed as the acquired entity.

Neither party issued public statements on the deal that closed May 14. Local business news outlet Jacksonville Daily Record first reported on the news in June before it gained national media attention in recent days.

The potential cost of the deal was found in a separate filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in which Technologies Group reported selling its 5 percent non-voting stake in New APR Energy in a May 28 SEC report.

Duos said its sale generated $50.4 million in net proceeds, which implies the Musk deal was worth at least $1 billion.

Musk continues to invest in artificial intelligence (AI) development with the research company he founded, xAI, and its chatbot Grok.

His xAI company runs the Colossus data center in Tennessee, a $20 billion facility near a power plant site, where he has had to rent turbine units as he waits for grid power to the site.

New APR Energy owns and maintains a fleet of gas turbines with more than 1 gigawatt of power generation capacity, according to a statement from the company in January, when it expanded capacity.

The company has been delivering power to clients for more than 20 years, deploying its fleets “in as little as 30 to 90 days,” the statement said.

Grok is a generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) chatbot developed by xAI, based on a large language model (LLM). It was developed at the initiative of Elon Musk in response to the rise of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Riccardo Milani/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

Musk’s purchase of the Florida company represents his second investment in the energy sector. In 2006, Musk helped fund SolarCity, a company founded by his cousins, Peter and Lyndon Rive, which grew to be the largest residential solar installer in the United States.

Tesla bought SolarCity in an all-stock deal worth about $2.6 billion in 2016 and turned it into Tesla Energy.

Tech expert and podcaster Aakash Gupta said Musk’s latest transaction exposed the AI industry’s current problems.

“What [Musk] bought tells you where the real bottleneck in AI is,” Gupta said in a July 16 post on X.

New APR Energy operates a fleet of mobile gas and diesel turbines with over 1 gigawatt of generation capacity—enough to power 750,000 homes at once.

The fleet, which was built for disaster response, arrives on trucks and can be delivered, installed, and commissioned in a month.

The fast set-up time makes sense for Musk, who has already lived through delays with xAI’s first Memphis plant, Gupta said.

“Environmental groups sued. The [Justice Department] intervened to keep the turbines running. He was renting the most important input to his most important company,” Gupta said. “So he bought the landlord. … Every AI lab can buy the same chips. Only one of them now owns a power plant fleet that ships by truck.”

New APR Energy and Tesla did not return requests for comments about the purchase by publication time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 12:35

US Sends Dozens More Refueling Planes To Israel Amid Widening Iran War, Oil Climbs Summary

• Surge in more large US refueling planes headed to Mideast, signaling likely expansion of strikes on Iran.
• US attacks hit Iranian energy and transport infrastructure.
• Iran threatens stronger retaliation and claims strike on US base in Qatar - and deepens attacks to include US outposts in Jordan, Syria.
• Iran urges power conservation; Hormuz shipping traffic declines further.
• Oil prices rise to session highs on fears of broader regional conflict.

//--> //--> //--> Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes 27% · No 74%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Trump Sends Dozens More Refueling Planes in Sign Of Widening War

Oil prices are climbing on fresh reports Friday that President Trump is ready to continue escalating and expanding strikes on the Islamic Republic, after a Situation Room briefing this week where the Commander-in-Chief was presented with various options. It bears repeating that the White House in the opening days of Operation Epic Fury promised the American public a fast and hasty, limited military engagement - but this is where we are four months later...

"The Trump administration notified Israel it is sending dozens more refueling planes to the country ahead of a potential expansion of military operations against Iran, three U.S. and Israeli officials said," reports Axios. "After he was presented with several new military plans in a Situation Room meeting Tuesday, President Trump is considering a massive offensive in Iran that would be wider in scope than the current strikes around the Strait of Hormuz." This is but the latest signal that the ceasefire and negotiations are fully dead, and the potential for runaway escalation is bigger than ever:

• OIL RISES TO SESSION HIGHS, BRENT TRADES ABOVE $87/BBL
• US YIELDS RISE TO DAY'S HIGH ON REPORTS OF US-IRAN ESCALATION
• US TO SEND DOZENS MORE REFUELING PLANES: AXIOS

War Secretary Pete Hegseth boasted Friday of taking out this Iranian maritime monitoring tower on the southern coast:

Meanwhile, another US attack on an Iranian oil tanker is being widely reported:

US forces have attacked an Iranian oil tanker docked near Iran’s Kharg Island for the second time in two days, according to an Iranian official speaking to the Fars news agency.

“The empty, Belma N.I.22 oil tanker, which was hit two days ago, was attacked again today by two US missiles”, the deputy governor of Bushehr told Fars.

Iranians Urges to Conserve Power

Iran has on Friday warned of a "more crushing" retaliation following the conclusion of last night's sixth consecutive day of US attacks, targeting military targets and logistics infrastructure, but also civilian sites connected to the power grid. By all accounts this current wave goes beyond the prior strikes in size and scope compared to the past several days.

Iranian state media has reported that eight people were killed from the overnight attacks, and that several bridges had been attacked overnight.

Illustrative wartime image from earlier in the conflict.

The country is feeling the strain under what is now nearly a week of constant US heavy attacks. This is being seen in that Iran's energy ministry has urgently called on citizens to reduce electricity use after the power grid came under strain following US strikes on energy infrastructure in the south.

In a statement on Friday, the ministry said those areas in the south "are currently experiencing extreme heat and attacks on power infrastructure." But as Al Jazeera notes, "The ministry however did not elaborate on whether it was power plants, transmission lines or other equipment that had been attacked." According to more details:

Iran's Energy Ministry urged citizens to reduce electricity consumption to help stabilize power supply in the country’s southern provinces following US strikes on energy facilities, citing extreme heat and infrastructure damage, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported Friday.

The ministry asked subscribers to turn off air conditioners for one hour during peak consumption periods to help ensure a more stable electricity supply to the affected provinces, ISNA said.

Report: Hormuz Strait transit falls to three week low--

Hormuz traffic reaches three week low

MarineTraffic data indicate confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone fell to eight on 16 July, down from 15 a day earlier and marking a three week low. Seven of the eight transits followed the Iranian route, with no… pic.twitter.com/mEXVxsx40d

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) July 17, 2026

Friday was the first time that Iran's government acknowledged American "attacks on power infrastructure" during the campaign, which comes after Trump's prior warning to go after key civilian infrastructure.

Attacks on Bridges

And on the bridges: "Iranian media reported that five bridges were hit in the latest round of US strikes, as well as the train station in coastal Bandar Khamir and Iranshahr Airport ​in southeastern Iran," Reuters reports. An airport has also reportedly been attacked.

Iran has warned of an "infrastructure for infrastructure" tit-for-tat:

Kuwait says that one of the country's power and water desalinations plans suffered "severe damage" after an Iranian attack.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 17, 2026

There are signs of renewed attacks on rail as well, per NBC:

A railway junction station just west of Bandar Abbas was also hit, the state-owned IRIB news agency said. The highway and railway bridge strikes appeared aimed at cutting off Bandar Abbas, Iran’s main port, from roads leading toward Tehran, the capital.

While other routes still are open, the U.S. strikes could expand further, potentially disrupting both the movement of military materiel and goods needed for Iran’s 90 million people.

Regional Arab states which host American bases say they were busy overnight intercepting missiles and drones sent from Iran, including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and with reports of projectiles inbound even in Syria.

'Powerful Attack' on Qatar Base

The IRGC announced Friday that it carried out an attack on the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, asserting that it destroyed a long-range radar system and several US aerial refueling aircraft.

Iran's Chabahar port control tower COLLAPSES after more than a week of US strikes — Pete Hegseth boasts of destruction in X photo

Iranian FM Araghchi calls the attacks one of many US 'war crimes' committed over the past week pic.twitter.com/lDBz6ufJ5j

— RT (@RT_com) July 17, 2026

Its Aerospace Force described that carried out a "surprise and powerful" attack on Al Udeid Air Base, claiming to have taken out a long-range radar system along with the refueling aircraft parked there.

Per IRIB news agency, the elite Iranian force stated, "The American enemy and the hosts of its bases in the region should know that crossing red lines and attacking people and civilian infrastructure will have a very severe and miserable price. If the enemy continues this trend, more crushing responses are on the way; responses that will remain in the history of battles."

Iran's bridges have come under fresh strikes, via social media/X.

The IRGC further warned that American forces will "pay a heavy price" for what it called crossing "red lines" and targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. Tehran has not backed off its assertion of 'control' over the Strait of Hormuz - also calling this its red line.

The day or evening prior saw US Marines having conducted "a verification boarding" of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman - which the Pentagon characterized as part of operations enforcing the new naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 12:25

UMich Sentiment Extends Bounce From Record 46-Year-Lows As Gas Prices Ease

Having rebounded from record (46 year) lows in June, University of Michigan's preliminary July Sentiment survey was expected to show further improvement as gas prices fell since the US-Iran 'peace' MoU signing (before rising modestly in the last few days of the reignited conflict).

And indeed it did, headline Consumer Sentiment jumped from 49.5 to 54.4 (51.0 exp) - its highest since February...

"With the second straight month of 10% jumps," said UMich Dirctor of Surveys, Joanne Hsu, pointing out that "consumer sentiment climbed to its highest reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the pump in recent weeks."

All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions.

This month’s rise in sentiment was pervasive across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party.

Particularly strong increases were seen among consumers without a bachelor’s degree.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.6% in June to a still-elevated 4.2% this month. 

However, Hsu concludes by pouring cold water on the bounce by noting that sentiment’s upward momentum may prove difficult to sustain if recent declines in gas prices continue to reverse course.

Interviews for this release spanned June 23 to July 13, with more than 70% completed before the resumption of US strikes against Iran on July 7 and the subsequent increase in gas prices.

credittrader Fri, 07/17/2026 - 10:07

US Industrial Production Disappoints (Again) In June

US Industrial Production rose just 0.1% MoM in June (less than the 0.2% MoM rise expected), after also disappointing in May. That slowed the annual growth in production from 1.6% YoY to +1.1% YoY...

The recent blip higher in Capacity Utilization faded last month (76.1% vs 76.2% exp) with the down-trend seemingly still in tact...

If 'soft' survey data is in any way predictive of reality, then we should be seeing a sizable trend higher in industrial production...

...or maybe it's just another useless sentiment signal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 09:21

Historic NYC Church Torched In Confirmed Arson - City Rejects Save Plan As Demolition Ordered

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The FDNY has now confirmed what many suspected from the start: the massive fire that gutted the historic South Bushwick Reform Church in Brooklyn was intentionally set. The 1853 landmark, a Greek Revival structure that served generations of worshippers as both a house of faith and a community hub, is a total loss, and it will be completely torn down.

CBS New York reported the determination this week. Pastor James E. Steward II made clear the congregation never saw it coming.

"It was more than just a building. It's lives and generations of lives that have been touched," Steward said. "We have no known enemies."

CBS New York says the New York City Fire Department have come to the conclusion the historic Christian church recently set on fire was "intentionally set"

The South Bushwick Reform Church was built in 1863 and served generations of worshippers. It will be completely torn down... pic.twitter.com/npo7KfWQjV

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) July 16, 2026

He added: "Now we understand it is intentional, which brings another layer of grief to myself, as well as the congregation and the community." And: "Whoever is responsible for this ultimately has to answer to God."

No arrests have been made. Investigators previously noted a person of interest seen fleeing the scene on video shortly before the June 19 blaze erupted. The three-alarm fire brought down the steeple and left the wooden structure irreparable in the eyes of city officials.

Yet the congregation and local supporters pushed to preserve what remained. An independent structural engineer assessed the site as sound enough for restoration efforts focused on the attached fellowship hall and surviving elements. The city's Department of Buildings rejected the plan. Demolition is set to begin in August. The agency is led by Commissioner Ahmed Tigani.

!!! NYC Department of Buildings rejects plan to save a 174-year-old church in Bushwick that burned via arson

Demolition is set to begin in August

Ahmed Tigani leads the agency pic.twitter.com/KbIwgu1vux

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 14, 2026

This is not an isolated loss. Just weeks earlier, a 138-year-old church in Astoria, Queens, suffered a devastating "mystery" fire in April. The city rejected proposals to rebuild. The structure was demolished two weeks later.

> 138 year old church in Astoria, NY

> is damaged by mystery fire in April

> the city rejects proposal to rebuild

> church is demolished 2 weeks later pic.twitter.com/JsXaNpemhw

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 14, 2026

The losses mirror those in Europe, where a spate of church attacks have occurred.

In France, nearly 50 fires or arson attempts hit churches and Christian sites in a single recent year - a sharp rise - with authorities recording a Christian religious building vanishing every two weeks through fire, collapse, or deliberate damage.

Recent examples include the June blaze that destroyed most of the roof at the 17th-century Chapelle Sainte-Anne-des-Rochers in Brittany and the gutting of the Église Saint-Cyriaque in Montenach.

 

Canada has seen the same. Historic churches have been reduced to ashes with causes left unresolved and little urgency from authorities.

In the UK, churches face routine attacks while official outrage is selectively applied. A historic London church burned to the ground amid government silence, even as leaders scrambled to respond to incidents involving other faith sites.

 

In New York the physical symbols of the city's Christian heritage are vanishing under official processes that prioritize teardown over preservation. The South Bushwick congregation is left raising what funds it can while the city bills the church for its own demolition and prepares the site for whatever comes next. The Astoria church is already gone.

These buildings stood for more than a century as anchors of community and continuity. Their rapid destruction, followed by bureaucratic refusal to allow rebuilding, fits a larger pattern playing out from Brooklyn to Quebec to provincial France. The foundations that built Western cities are being burned and demolished.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:55

Watch: Trump Reveals 'Shocking' Election Vulnerabilities Including 278,000 Fraudulent Voters

Update (2110ET): Trump has released several major election-related findings: 

• Mass declassification event - The White House just released previously classified Intelligence Community assessments and reports on election infrastructure spanning January 2020 through June 2026.
• Adversary capability finding - A quoted IC assessment states Russia, China, Iran, North Korea "at a minimum," plus non-state groups, have the capability to compromise U.S. election infrastructure.
• Weakest-link identification - Centralized data repositories (voter registration databases, pollbooks, official election websites) are assessed as the systems most vulnerable to exploitation and disruption.
• Venezuela proof-of-concept - CIA reporting allegedly detailed a Maduro-regime plot to digitally rig Venezuela's 2020 elections using methods that could alter vote totals undetectably "even with an audit."
• China's 220 million voter files - The PRC allegedly acquired 220 million U.S. voter files beginning in the 2020 cycle - framed as the largest election-data compromise in history - and assigned a dedicated data exploitation unit to it.
• Alleged intelligence cover-up - The document claims IC officials ("Deep State") suppressed knowledge of the China compromise from both the President and the public, despite the IC discovering it in 2020 across 18 states.
• Michigan registration fraud files - FBI documents allegedly show canvassers for a Democrat GOTV operation in Muskegon admitted forging registrations, registering nonexistent people, and receiving gift cards tied to application volume after a 2020 Michigan State Police raid.
• Enforcement directive - The release asserts the Biden DOJ slow-walked the Michigan case for years; FBI Director Patel is now directed to complete the investigation and pursue prosecutions with DOJ.
• 278,000 noncitizen registrants - A DHS review of voter rolls and public records allegedly identified ~278,000 noncitizens registered for federal elections, with the White House asserting the true number is higher because Democrat-led states withheld their files.
• Policy endgame and rolling campaign - The four pillars converge into an argument for Voter ID, proof of citizenship, and curtailing mail ballots, with a mailing list promising "new findings, new filings, and next steps" - signaling a serialized release-and-enforcement campaign rather than a one-time disclosure.

Watch:

The White House has published election integrity findings built around four pillars, accompanying a presidential address and a declassification of Intelligence Community assessments spanning January 2020 through June 2026. The pillars: (1) IC findings that Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and non-state actors have the capability to compromise U.S. election infrastructure, with centralized data repositories - registration databases, pollbooks, election websites - assessed as most vulnerable; (2) an alleged CIA-reported Maduro-regime plot to digitally rig Venezuela's 2020 elections using methods undetectable "even with an audit," offered as proof-of-concept that electronic vote manipulation is possible; (3) China's alleged acquisition of 220 million U.S. voter files beginning in 2020 - framed as history's largest election-data compromise, complete with a dedicated exploitation unit - which the document claims "Deep State" intelligence officials concealed from both the President and the public; and (4) FBI files on a 2020 Muskegon, Michigan raid of a Democrat GOTV operation where canvassers allegedly admitted forging registrations for pay, a case the Biden DOJ purportedly slow-walked and which FBI Director Patel is now directed to investigate and prosecute. A DHS review claiming roughly 278,000 noncitizens on federal voter rolls rounds out the disclosures.

The findings describe foreign-held voter data, hackable machines, buried fraud evidence, and noncitizen (and "dead people") registrations against a system with no voter ID, no proof of citizenship, and mass mail balloting - while a mailing list promising "new findings, new filings, and next steps" signals a serialized campaign with litigation or enforcement actions queued behind the document drops. 

Update: According to the NY Post's Caitlin Doornbos, Trump is expected to reveal at least 278,000 noncitizens who are registered to vote in US federal elections - a figure arrived at by the Department of Homeland Security in an upcoming report. 

This is what Kamala Harris had to say prior to President Trump’s speech. pic.twitter.com/qBMean2VJm

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 17, 2026

* * *

President Donald Trump is expected to use a prime-time address Thursday night to discuss election integrity and potentially unveil 'four sets' of newly declassified intelligence concerning alleged foreign interference in recent U.S. elections, according to reports.

MSNBC; Getty Images

Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight - only revealing that it would focus on election security and related concerns.

"Our country has to shape up," Trump said during an Oval Office appearance with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaid. "Without free and fair elections, you don't have a country."

Journalist Paul Sperry reported on X that the address could include allegations that U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies recently uncovered evidence of foreign interference involving China - not Russia - in recent elections, including the 2020 presidential contest.

Citing an unnamed administration source who had reportedly reviewed a draft of Trump's speech, Sperry claimed the evidence includes allegations that Chinese actors penetrated state voter-registration databases and obtained information concerning tens of thousands of voters.

According to Sperry, officials believe the stolen information may have been intended for use in manufacturing fraudulent mail-in ballots supporting Joe Biden. He also claimed that CIA Director John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Kash Patel would appear with Trump or otherwise certify the evidence presented by the administration.

Flashback: Chuck Grassley reveals records showing the FBI spiked a Chinese election interference probe

The documents were reportedly drawn from previously undisclosed or suppressed FBI, CIA, and ODNI records. Sperry's source alleged that the intelligence had been buried as part of a broader effort to conceal Beijing's cyber capabilities and influence operations.

The "really big news" President Trump plans to announce in Thursday's primetime address, according to an administration source who's read a draft of his speech, includes bombshell evidence China interfered in the 2020 election to help Joe Biden win, including hacking into state voter registration databases and stealing information on tens of thousands of voters ostensibly to manufacture mail-in ballots for Biden.

The evidence, which details "alarming vulnerabilities" of election infrastructure, is based on four (4) sets of declassified documents (set for release Friday) which were recently unearthed from suppressed FBI, CIA and ODNI records, according to the well-placed source. The intelligence had been buried in a "massive cover-up" of Beijing's hacking capabilities and influence operations aimed at supporting Biden.

Other vulnerabilities compromising the U.S. election system, according to a draft of the president's speech, include the existence of more than 100,000 non-citizens, including illegal immigrants, on voter rolls. -Paul Sperry

The source characterized the alleged penetration of the 2020 election system as more extensive than the Russian interference described by U.S. officials following the 2016 election.

So here's what we're learning from all these declassified materials: The US Intelligence Community *juiced* intel to make it seem like Moscow interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump, but then *buried* intel indicating Beijing interfered in the election to help Biden in 2020

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) July 14, 2026

The expected disclosures reportedly concern vulnerabilities in state election infrastructure, including voter-registration databases, identity verification, mail-in voting, and ballot security.

//--> //--> //--> Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Sperry also reported that a draft of Trump's address references more than 100,000 noncitizens - including people living in the country illegally - appearing on voter rolls. It was not immediately clear which states or databases were included in that figure, how the administration calculated it, or whether all the registrations were active.

Administration Expands Election Integrity Campaign

The address comes as the Trump administration and congressional Republicans intensify their efforts to change federal election policy before the midterms.

Earlier in July, Trump fired members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, the federal agency that assists state and local election officials and oversees the certification of voting systems. The administration has also pursued the creation of a nationwide database of eligible voters and expanded citizenship-verification efforts. Several of those initiatives have encountered resistance in federal court. On June 25, a federal district judge in Massachusetts sided with states challenging the administration's voter-list initiative, ruling that the Constitution leaves states with significant authority over elections. Meanwhile, a federal judge in Washington blocked an updated citizenship-verification database the following day, finding that the program conflicted with federal privacy and Social Security laws.

Then on July 7, a federal judge in Georgia quashed Justice Department subpoenas seeking information about election workers involved in Fulton County's administration of the 2020 election.

Harmeet Dhillon, who leads the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division, has also sent letters to election officials in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The letters warned that officials could face criminal liability if they knowingly allow ineligible noncitizens to remain on voter rolls.

Democrats, Of Course, Freak Out

Democratic lawmakers are of course in full-on panic mode over the 2020 claims, suggesting that Trump could use the address to revive disputed allegations about the 2020 election or justify new federal intervention in the midterm election process.

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned whether the administration could possess significant new intelligence that had not previously been provided to congressional overseers. Warner told the Epoch Times; "having been deeply involved with the intelligence community for the last decade plus, I would be shocked if there was some major new piece of intelligence that never was shared." He also warned against using questionable or selectively presented intelligence as the basis for government action affecting elections.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Democrats were preparing for several possible scenarios involving the address and the administration's next steps.

Sperry separately reported that the White House had encountered resistance from the three major broadcast television networks over requests to carry the address live. He attributed the hesitation to concerns that the speech might repeat claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

The networks' plans and the White House's reported discussions with them had not been publicly confirmed.

Trump has described the forthcoming announcement as "really big news." Whether the address produces verifiable new evidence - or intensifies the existing partisan conflict over election administration - will likely depend on the contents, sourcing, and independent authentication of any documents released by the government.

SAVE America Act Remains Stalled

Trump has repeatedly called on Congress to approve the Republican-backed SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote and photo identification when casting a ballot.

The legislation passed the House but has stalled in the Senate, where most bills need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republican leaders have considered incorporating similar provisions into a third budget-reconciliation package. The reconciliation process would allow legislation to pass the Senate with a simple majority, although provisions must comply with rules requiring them to have a direct effect on federal spending or revenue.

The Senate parliamentarian previously determined that certain SAVE America provisions did not comply with those restrictions. House Republicans released a $95 billion framework for the reconciliation package on July 15. The proposal could include federal funding to help states establish voter-identification requirements.

The House Budget Committee scheduled a markup of the legislation for July 16. Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington of Texas said the package would help protect the integrity of U.S. elections.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:44

Renter Nation Returns? Massive Jump In Multi-Family Unit Starts Despite Builder Sentiment Slump

US Housing Starts exploded higher by 19% MoM in June, dramatically more than the already large 11.2% MoM expectation and rebounding from the prior two ugly monthly declines.

This was the biggest monthly increase in Starts since May 2023.

On the other side, the more forward-looking Building Permits declined for a second straight month...

This shouldn't be a total surprise after yesterday's decline in builder sentiment (confidence among US homebuilders dropped for a second month to the lowest level of the year, dragged lower by elevated borrowing costs and higher material and land prices).

The surge in Starts was dominated by a massive rebound in multi-family units.

• Single-family down 0.2% to 895K

• Multi-family (rentals) soar 76.3% to 513K from 293K, fully reversing the May drop from 494K to 291K

We can't help but question WTF happened in the May multi-family starts data...

Permits were down among both cohorts:

• single family down 2.4% to 871K SAAR, lowest since August '25

• multi-family down to 4.9% to 445K SAAR, lowest since March '26

Additionally, Building Permits are tracking rate-hike expectations (inverted)...

Multi-family Starts are back above Permits (perhaps signaling the short-term peak)...

It seems recent rises in the mortgage rate (and inventories already at over-stuffed levels, given the slowness of sales) has finally dented the homebuilders' self-satisfying confidence... and the lack of affordability leaves the American Dream fading into Renter Nation...

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:43

Futures Tumble As Latest Chinese "DeepSeek Moment" Sparks Chip Meltdown

A surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot (which is now at the top of the Frontend code benchmark on Arena) rumbled through global markets, sending chip stocks reeling, as queasiness returned about the industry’s unprecedented spending spree (something we have been warning about for the past year). Moonshot claims its new Kimi K3 model rivals top offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic in a release reminiscent of last year’s “DeepSeek moment.” It came as President Xi Jinping appeared at China’s premier AI summit, underscoring how rapidly the nation’s AI developers are closing the gap with US rivals (discussed here a month ago). Meanwhile, delays by Alphabet to the launch of the latest Gemini model has also dented tech sentiment. As a result as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.8% lower with Nasdaq futs tumbling 1.7%; pre-market, Mag 7 are all lower with NVDA (-2.8%), AMZN (-2.1%), and META (-1.8%) among the most notable decliners. AI and Semis concerns continued to dominate the market narrative overnight ahead of Mag 7 earnings next week. What is different from the past few weeks of momentum selloff is that both Mag 7 and Semis were being sold overnight and yesterday, pointing to "concerns over hyperscalers’ AI CapEx and the sustainability of the AI rally" according to JPM. Moonshot’s AI model release also led to further concerns in China AI model competition and questions on AI CapEx (“DeepSeek 2.0” concerns): overnight, Asia AI baskets and China AI baskets (which include Moonshot’s competitors Z.AI and MiniMax) fell 5-8%. Bond yields are lower across the curve: 2y and 10y are 2.1bp and 2.8bp lower, respectively. Oil added another 1.8%; WTI now at $80.47 this morning after Kuwait said power and water plants were attacked by Iran as hostilities in the Gulf escalate with every passing day. Both base and precious metals are higher this morning. US economic data calendar includes June import/export price index, and June housing starts (8:30am), June industrial production (9:15am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Nvidia -2.4%, Amazon -1.4%, Microsoft -1.9%, Tesla -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Meta Platforms -1.5%, Apple -0.1%). Chipmakers and other AI-related firms are set to extend their selloff amid a broad unwind of the tech trade. Marvell Technology (MRVL) -2%, Qualcomm -2%.

• Autoliv (ALV) falls 5% after the airbag and seatbelt maker reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that narrowly missed consensus estimates.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) tumbles 10% after the robotic-surgery company maintained its forecast for Worldwide da Vinci robotic procedure growth for the full year, even as its second-quarter results came in ahead of the average analyst estimates.
• Netflix (NFLX) falls 10% after the streaming giant forecast a second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth. Analysts note that the tepid current quarter forecast is overshadowing an otherwise in-line quarter.
• Staar Surgical (STAA) drops 8% after the maker of implantable lenses posted preliminary second quarter results where sales in Europe, theMiddle East and Africa declined by a low single-digit percentage, reflecting ongoing turmoil in the Middle East.

In other corporate news SpaceX aborted Thursday’s Starship rocket mission when some of its engines didn’t fire up, it's stock tumbled another 3% to $125, the lowest since its IPO less than two months ago. US regulators traced a parasite outbreak that’s sickened thousands in Michigan and nearby states to shredded iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell restaurants, identifying a single supplier as the apparent source.

Tech is once again dragging futures lower in early trading as questions over momentum, semiconductor capex and hyperscaler debt persist, masking a powerful rotation beneath the surface. Traders rushed to exit positions in stocks that had fueled this year’s rally, sending the Nasdaq tumbling. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index posted an all-time high in Thursday’s cash session and the VIX remains below the key psychological level of 20, but the S&P 500 is down on the week and set to deepen those losses on Friday.

Stock investors are taking profits on crowded positions in chip-related stocks, with a key gauge of industry giants still up 68% this year. For Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management, the selloff still looks moderate in comparison to the preceding rally. “We would distinguish between fundamentals and positioning,” he said. “From a fundamental perspective, the picture remains solid: earnings momentum has been exceptional this year, and results are still coming in strongly.”

Beata Manthey, head of European and global equity strategy at Citigroup, says sharp stock rotations are necessary for the equity rally to broaden beyond the tech sector. “The market has started to hope for some long-awaited broadening,” Manthey told Bloomberg Television. “For that to happen, you need to have some rotations, and rotations tend to happen in quite a violent way sometimes — and this is what we’re seeing right now.”

Also in tech, the marquee listing of CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s homegrown memory giant opened books for an IPO to raise $9.8 billion, the second-largest in the nation’s history. The retail portion of the IPO was 212 times oversubscribed. President Xi hailed China’s progress in developing low-cost AI in his debut at the World AI Conference in Shanghai on Friday. The rise of China’s AI models shaping the technology’s global rules is stirring security alarms in Washington and Beijing alike.Elsewhere, Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia’s market capitalization has now halved in just a month since becoming the nation’s most valuable company. 

“When there’s panic, no one wants to be the last one in a selloff, so the selling pressure increases,” said Guillermo Hernández Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “With the start of reporting, the suspicion of overvaluation has been confirmed and will continue for a bit.”

In short, chipmakers and other AI-related firms are set to extend their selloff amid a broad unwind of the tech trade. Meanwhile Netflix, already more than 40% lower in the past year, is also weighing on tech sentiment. The streaming giant fell 10% in premarket trade Friday after forecasting a second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth, fanning fears for its future.

Cash would offer good protection in the near term, Simon at Santander Asset Management said. Bonds are a less attractive option as higher oil prices could undermine the defensive characteristics of sovereign debt. “The key reassurance would probably come from the earnings season,” he said. “If companies continue to deliver solid results, and valuations become more attractive after the correction, that could help bring longer-term buyers back.”

Another day of attacks and counterstrikes in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment. Concerns are growing that the US and Iran will intensify hostilities, making oil tanker operators wary of transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  

In geopolitics, Trump accused China of interfering with US elections in 2020, claiming the Chinese government stole voter files, including names, addresses and other sensitive data. The US administration said it would shorten the duration of visas for foreign journalists - raising concern about a new round of tit-for-tat restrictions with China.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested the central bank should consider raising interest rates if inflation doesn’t cool soon. 

Selling by US corporate insiders raised another red flag about investor caution. Executives sold $77.6 billion of stock during the first half, according to EPFR Global Market Intelligence, the second-highest amount in more than 20 years a classic red flag to some investors because it suggests people with the most corporate knowledge are wary about markets.

European equities edged lower on Friday. with technology and mining shares leading declines, while utilities and telecommunications stocks outperform. Tech subindex of the Stoxx 600 down to the lowest since May. Here are the biggest movers on Friday:

• Tomra gains as much as 16% after the recycling equipment firm’s 2Q report beat expectations and the firm announced a contract to supply 1,200 recycling machines with a large UK retailer
• EQT rises as much as 13% after the investment firm’s first-half earnings beat estimates, providing some relief to a stock that had fallen more than 20% year-to-date through Thursday
• Getinge shares jump as much as 10% after the Swedish health-care equipment firm reported second-quarter sales and earnings which JPMorgan says were better than expected
• Assa Abloy gains as much as 6.2%, the most in a year, after the Swedish lock and entrance systems maker reported its latest earnings
• European semiconductor stocks decline across the board on Friday. AI trades that were popular in the first half lose ground amid concerns over the sustainability of AI spending
• Lagercrantz shares plunge as much as 16%, its biggest drop since 2022. The industrial conglomerate posted quarterly margins and earnings that missed expectations, according to DNB Carnegie
• AAK sinks as much as 12% after the Swedish maker of vegetable oils and fats saw a softer second quarter, impacted by lower volumes, price pressure in Food Ingredients and production-related challenges at its Karlshamn site
• DKSH shares fall as much as 8.3%, the most since September, after the Swiss conglomerate reported operating profit for the first half-year that missed the average analyst estimate
• Burberry shares fall as much as 7.3% after the UK luxury brand posted first-quarter results that were weaker than expected in Europe and Asia
• Valterra Platinum slipped as much as 2.4% after the miner reported 2Q earnings and 1H guidance. Analysts note that 2Q own mined volumes missed, while PGM refined production was in line

Asian stocks slipped the most in three weeks despite robust earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., highlighting how elevated expectations have become for AI-related companies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.8% and is headed for a second straight weekly decline. TSMC fell more than 7%, triggering a correction in Taiwan’s Taiex. The Nikkei 225 slid 4% as Japanese chip-related stocks such as Kioxia Holdings Corp. and Tokyo Electron Ltd. came under pressure. Hong Kong and mainland China also declined, while South Korea’s markets were mercifully closed for a holiday, even though the KORU 3x levered korea ETF plunged. TSMC reported a faster-than-anticipated 77% jump in quarterly net income and raised both its revenue and spending projections. The main chipmaker for Nvidia Corp. now expects sales to grow more than 40% this year and plans to spend as much as $64 billion in 2026, reflecting confidence that AI-driven demand for chips and data centers will remain strong. Some markets with lower exposure to AI such as Indonesia, the Philippines and India rose. Malaysia’s benchmark stock index gained 0.5% as the country reported a surprise surge in economic growth in the second quarter. Investors will focus on earnings for companies including CATL and Shin-Etsu Chemical in the week ahead. Other key events include Indonesia’s monetary policy. The Jakarta stock index has climbed for seven straight sessions, the longest streak in about a year. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, with the Swiss franc outperforming among major currencies while the Aussie dollar and sterling lag. Traders continued to dial down expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year. 

In rates, treasuries hold modest gains despite the rise in oil prices, sending 10-year yields four basis points lower to 4.52% with US stock index futures under pressure from chipmaker shares after surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot and Alphabet’s delayed launch of latest Gemini model. Limiting gains, oil futures are up more than 2% after Kuwait said power and water plants were attacked by Iran. Treasury yields are 2bp-4bp lower led by 5- to 10-year sectors, flattening 2s10s curve by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.51% outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp and 1bp respectively. 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up 2.6% near session highs, heading for biggest weekly gain since April as the escalating conflict between the US and Iran disrupts Middle East supply. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, though Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are expected to tap the market as soon as Friday; weekly volume is near $47 billion. Gold moving higher but short of $4,000/oz.

US economic data calendar includes June import/export price index, and June housing starts (8:30am), June industrial production (9:15am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed calendar is blank; external communications blackout period commences Saturday ahead of the July 29 policy decision

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump announced the immediate declassification of intelligence on elections during his primetime address and noted that China engaged in election-related activities in 2020 and did not want him to win the election, while he claimed that China attempted to manufacture ballots for Biden and worked to influence businesses against him. China's Foreign Ministry denied these accusations.
• China’s Moonshot AI has launched an artificial-intelligence model, Kimi K3, it says outperforms some cutting-edge U.S. systems, the latest sign that Chinese labs can rival American counterparts like OpenAI and Anthropic in critical technology frontiers. WSJ
• The U.S. struck multiple bridges in Iran on Thursday to cut off supply routes to a port city and naval base in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran uses to attack ships and project power, according to a senior U.S. official. Several attacks on bridges were reported in and around the port city of Bandar Abbas overnight Thursday, and highways connecting Bandar Abbas to nearby provinces were declared closed, according to Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB. WSJ
• Two US-sanctioned tankers carrying cooking fuel are U-turning and navigating in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea as the US steps up enforcement of its blockade on Iranian shipping. A third sanctioned LPG vessel is indicating China as its destination. BBG
• Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi called for households and the GPIF to increase investment in domestic financial assets, fueling expectations of possible allocation changes at the fund. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her willingness to take “decisive action” in currency markets. BBG
• Xi Jinping called for inclusive cooperation on AI development and urged the world to avoid technological rivalries at China’s top tech summit. BBG 
• The ECB will probably pause to assess inflation next week before delivering a final rate hike in September. BBG
• New York City air quality remains at “unhealthy” levels today as the EPA warned people to spend more time indoors, with wildfire smoke blanketing much of the East Coast. Several communities across northern Ontario have initiated evacuation to avoid the blaze. BBG
• BP and ConocoPhillips are set to announce billions of dollars of new investments in Iraq on Friday as Washington seeks to bolster the country’s energy sector and reduce the region’s reliance on routes vulnerable to Iranian disruption, according to people familiar with the plans. CNBC
• A top executive at Amazon’s cloud division plans to join Meta Platforms in the coming weeks, a sign of the social-media giant’s growing ambitions in developing data centers and computing resources. Dave Brown, one of the most senior executives at Amazon Web Services, will bring his nearly two decades of experience to Meta, where he will report to the company’s head of infrastructure and focus on the firm’s data center build-out. WSJ 
• US President Trump called on Congress to pass the Save America Act in light of recent revelations.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured as the tech selling rolled over from Wall St and with sentiment weighed on by US-Iran escalation, in which the US conducted a sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iran and targeted infrastructure, including an airport, railway station and several bridges. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in mining, materials, resources and tech, while telecoms, energy and defensives were at the other end of the spectrum, helping cushion the downside. Nikkei 225 underperformed and took the brunt of the semiconductor sell-off in the absence of its South Korean counterpart due to Constitution Day, while Kioxia was heavily pressured and has shed 50% of its market cap from last month's peak. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood amid the tech-related woes, and with sentiment also not helped by US President Trump's primetime address, in which he accused China of meddling in the 2024 US Election and called for Congress to pass the SAVE America Act.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government will pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds like the GPIF.
• Chinese President Xi said that the world has entered an unprecedented period of AI innovation, adding they should seize rare historic opportunities to encourage open source AI.
• China FX regulator said foreign investments into China saw net inflows in H1 and outbound investments continue to grow steadily.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) are broadly lower, following on from the weakness in Asia (Nikkei -4%, Hang Seng -2.1%), with clear underperformance seen in the AEX (-1.0%) and FTSE MIB (-0.8%). Tech (ASML -4.2%, STMicroelectronics -6.9%) is the clear underperformer following the sharp selloff overnight in APAC names, as worries of stretched valuations persist. Despite the selloff, this week has been broadly positive in the tech space, with both TSMC and ASML reporting strong Q2 figures that beat estimates. Today's weakness just shows that, despite positive news, concerns over the AI capex and its current momentum persist. In terms of the broader sector space, the bias is mixed. Utilities (+1.5%) top the sector pile, followed by Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+0.9%) and Telecoms (+1.1%). Outside of Tech (-2.9%), Basic Resources (-2.1%) and Banks (-1.2%) are the sector laggards. US equity futures are lower across the board, with underperformance in the NQ (-1.9%), given the tech weakness overnight. After-hours, Netflix (-9% pre-market) reported Q2 earnings that came broadly in-line with expectations, but investors were left disappointed by its earnings forecast, with Q3 EPS and Revenue guidance missing estimates. For SpaceX (-3.5% pre-market) , shares fell below its IPO price of USD 135 for the first time on Thursday after the launch of Flight 13 was aborted.

Top European News

• EU Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jun) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.2%, Low. 2.8%, High. 2.9%).
• EU Inflation Rate MoM Final (Jun) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%, Low. -0.1%, High. -0.1%).
• EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jun) Y/Y 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.6%).

FX

• G10s are mixed against Buck with recent outperformers AUD and GBP underperforming against the Greenback, while Thursday’s CHF underperformance reverses.
• USD is modestly firmer today as it gains some haven demand as stocks (NQ -1.9%) slip as tech weakness remains a theme. A couple of factors are driving today, but to summarise, Nikkei 225 was the target for selling amid the KOSPI closure overnight (due to domestic holiday), which saw stocks take a stronger negative lead from APAC and help the Buck. Aside from this, macro newsflow is light with crude a touch firmer as US and Iran continue to exchange strikes for the sixth day.
• GBP, which is set for a fourth week of gains, pulls back a touch from the 1.35 level as participants await the coronation of incoming PM Burnham. EUR/GBP also saw Sterling outperform for its fourth week, but like Cable, off recent lows as it reclaims 0.85. There remains a level of uncertainty around the incoming PM, with none of his cabinet officials confirmed as of yet, and many policies still unknown. ING expects a return to 0.870 in EUR/GBP by late summer.
• JPY is flat against the Buck despite c. 30pips of downside seen this morning. Japanese PM Takaichi said the govt. would pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds like the GPIF. To remind, last week FinMin Katayama said she would pursue steps to promote investment in Japanese assets by GPIF and others. There was some scepticism around this remark as it would be a textbook tactic to encourage domestic investment and passively limit outflows - Katayama is not in a position to direct changes, it would be under the jurisdiction of the Labour Ministry. We await further updates with a timeline around any potential GPIF changes, for now, JPY flat against the Buck near 162.50 despite earlier gains.

Fixed Income

• Fixed income benchmarks are firmer across the board, despite a clear driver; however, debt could be finding some haven flows as equities print deep selloffs globally.
• Gilts (+26 ticks) outperform, with Andy Burnham to begin his Labour premiership on Monday. Focus will be on who Burnham chooses as Chancellor (widely expected to be Home Secretary Mahmood) and what his plans are for the government. Reporting by Bloomberg stated that he has asked the civil service to prepare plans for new North Sea oil and gas drilling and public control of Thames Water. Regarding the Chancellor position, Mahmood is likely to be named Chancellor, but this has already drawn some backlash. Rachel Maskell told the Times that appointing Mahmood would be a mistake and that Miliband “shines well above Shabana.” Despite this, gilts trade at the top end of its 87.15-87.59 range.
• JGBs (+36 ticks) have steadily bid higher in early European trade, after Japanese PM Takaichi said the government will pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds. She even specifically named GPIF. Focus on pension fund investments in domestic assets started after FinMin Katayama said she wanted to encourage the GPIF to invest more. Takaichi's more recent comments would likely strengthen the view that the government is keen to have the GPIF consider altering its asset allocations.
• USTs (+8 ticks) trend higher despite a lack of events on the calendar. Fed's Jefferson gave remarks overnight, stating that it would be appropriate to reconsider the stance in the scenario in which inflation does not start cooling.

Commodities

• The US continued to strike Iran for a sixth consecutive night. Following this, Iran claimed power facilities, bridges and civilian infrastructure were struck. And in response, Iran launched its own strikes on Gulf neighbours.
• More pertinently was a severe warning from the Iranian Army Spokesman. He stated that if the US strike the infrastructure of Iran, all infrastructure in the region will be a legitimate target; He added that “either all countries in the region can export oil or no one can”.
• Other news in the region, the UKMTO received 2 reports. More recently, there was a report 65NM south of Al Mukalia, in which unauthorised personnel boarded the vessel. Sources say armed assailants boarded a chemical products tanker Asana in the Gulf of Aden, which is potentially related.
• Crude benchmarks spent the overnight session in the green, amidst the aforementioned developments. Brent Sep’26 (+1.7%) holds towards the top end of a USD 83.71-85.88/bbl range.
• Spot gold (+0.5%) is incrementally firmer this morning, though still remains just shy of the USD 4k/oz mark, after dipping below that mark in the prior session. Recent pressure has been driven by the ongoing inflationary woes surrounding the latest US-Iran escalation. Nonetheless, some analysts remain confident in the structural drivers for the yellow metal, namely, continued central bank purchases. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly in the red this morning – hampered by the risk tone. 3M LME Copper trades within a USD 13,429-13,563/t range.
• BP (BP/LN) and ConocoPhillips (COP) reportedly set to announce billions of dollars of new investments in Iraq on Friday, CNBC reports; sources said the figure may be in the tens of billions.
• Chinese LNG importers are exploring ways to reduce reliance on Qatar, Bloomberg reported.
• China State Planner NDRC to cut retail fuel prices in the current bi-monthly cycle, effective July 18th. To cut gasoline prices by CNY 300/t, and diesel by CNY 290/t.
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) cut output at Port Arthur refinery as the reformer is undergoing repairs.

Central Banks

• Fed's Jefferson (voter) said the current policy stance should support the job market and allow inflation to resume its decline towards 2% as tariff effects and energy prices pass through. Jefferson said in a scenario where inflation does not start cooling, it could be appropriate to reconsider the stance and ensure they deliver price stability, while he added that current policy is well-positioned to respond based on incoming data, the evolving outlook and balance of risks, and he is firmly committed to returning inflation to the 2% target, consistent with the dual mandate.
• BoJ reportedly sees little need for consecutive rate rises, may reconsider its assessment of economic risks, according to Bloomberg citing sources. It is also likely to raise its growth forecast for this year from its current 0.5%. Officials may revise their downside-risk assessment as AI-related demand supports exports, profits and incomes, while faster cost pass-through keeps underlying inflation risks elevated above the 2% target.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said they will see the fruits of labour in Iran shortly.
• US CENTCOM said forces conducted a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities. The US launched a missile attack on Iranshahr airport, targeted a railway station in Bandar Abbas and struck five bridges in southern Iran. It was also reported that explosions were heard in Ahvaz, Chabahar and Bushehr, with missiles hitting air and naval bases in Bushehr.
• US CENTCOM announced Marines conducted an inspection aboard M/T Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman on July 16th, while it was separately reported that only three ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, according to marine traffic data cited by Al Jazeera.
• Iran targeted US radars in Kuwait with a drone strike, and explosions were reported at the US Navy's Fifth Fleet Naval Base in Bahrain, while blasts were heard at a US airbase in Qatar and in Erbil, Iraq.
• IRGC claimed to have launched an attack on a US command centre in Syria's Al-Tanf, while it warned no oil or gas will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US attacks continue.
• Iran has informed allies, including Hezbollah, that the waiting phase is about to end and ordered them to prepare for military scenarios, according to Kann news citing Lebanese press.
• Kuwait’s Defence Ministry said Iranian 'aggression' on Thursday targeted a number of vital facilities, resulting in material damage.
• Iranian armed forces senior spokesperson said they will never allow the US to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that the route Iran has determined in the Strait of Hormuz is safe, and any route outside it will be unsafe and ships will be damaged. The spokesperson also warned that if the US strike the infrastructure of Iran, all infrastructure in the region will be a legitimate target and stated that "Either all countries in the region can export oil or no one can".
• UKMTO has received a report of an incident 19 nautical miles east of Khasab, Oman. Additionally, the UKMTO received another report of an incident 65NM south of Al Mukalia, Yemen, with the vessel boarded by unauthorised personnel. Following this, maritime sources said armed assailants boarded a chemical products tanker Asana in the Gulf of Aden, off the coast of southern Yemen.
• Lebanese sources said the US-Israeli-Lebanon meeting would likely be postponed to finalise technical arrangements, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Islamic Resistance of Iraq put a USD 10mln bounty on US President Trump.
• Naftogaz said a Russian drone attack suspended operations at a gas production facility in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.65%, prior 1.9%
• 8:30 am: Jun Housing Starts, est. 1310k, prior 1177k
• 8:30 am: Jun P Building Permits, est. 1403k, prior 1410k
• 9:15 am: Jun Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
• 9:15 am: Jun Capacity Utilization, est. 76.2%, prior 76.2%
• 10:00 am: Jul P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51, prior 49.5

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, global equities are continuing to slump, as fresh doubts about the AI trade have driven a pronounced selloff in tech stocks. Indeed, the S&P 500 fell -0.51% yesterday, and this morning futures are down another -0.78%. Moreover, there’s no sign of any letup this morning in Asia, with very sharp declines for the Nikkei (-4.81%), the CSI 300 (-2.45%), the Hang Seng (-1.98%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.64%), whilst the KOSPI is closed for a public holiday. Indeed, that slide indicates the Nikkei is currently likely on course for its worst day since March, and also leaves the index on track for technical correction territory, having now shed over 12% since its peak less than a month ago.

There wasn’t a single catalyst behind the selloff, but we had TSMC’s earnings shortly after we went to press yesterday, and their share price is down -5.26% this morning after they said that capital expenditure would be higher than previously forecast. Meanwhile, Netflix’s earnings disappointed after the close last night, pushing their shares almost -9% lower in after-hours trading. And in the background, fears about rate hikes and more persistent inflation are still there, with Brent crude oil up another +1.06% this morning to $85.12/bbl. That would be its first close above $85/bbl in over a month, and that combination of concerns around tech and inflation has really put a dent in the more buoyant narrative after the soft US CPI report earlier this week.  

Before the slump accelerated overnight, US equities had already seen a rough session yesterday thanks to the fresh slide in chip stocks. In fact, the Philly semiconductor index (-4.29%) hit an 8-week low, having now shed -18.91% from its peak less than a month ago. So that now leaves it close to the -20% mark that would mark a technical start of a bear market, which is a big turnaround from Q2, when it posted its best quarterly performance since the index began in the early 1990s. The AI-related tech pullback wasn’t limited to chipmakers either, with a decline for the Mag-7 (-1.27%) led by a slide in Alphabet’s shares (-4.44%) after Bloomberg reported a months-long delay for its new Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model. So that tech decline dragged on the S&P 500 (-0.51%), which fell even as nearly three-quarters of its constituents advanced on the day.

That positive breadth in the US stock market was supported by the latest batch of US data, which suggested that the economy was still in decent shape. Most notably, the weekly initial jobless claims were down to 208k in the week ending July 11 (vs. 217k expected), which was their lowest in two months. So that reassured investors that the labour market was holding up into Q3. Meanwhile, retail sales grew by +0.2% in June as expected, and there was an upward revision of a tenth to the May figures. So collectively, that added to the picture of ongoing data resilience, and we also saw the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 move up as well, now showing an annualised rate of +1.7% (vs. +1.3% before).

In terms of the latest in the Middle East, oil prices oscillated back and forth through the day, as strikes between the US and Iran continued. But this morning they’re currently slightly higher at $85.12/bbl, which would be their first close above $85/bbl in over a month if sustained. In terms of the latest, the US military said overnight that they’ve completed another wave of strikes on Iran, whilst Iran’s Press TV said they targeted US military sites in Kuwait. Otherwise, there was also a Reuters report yesterday that Iran had asked its Houthi allies in Yemen to be ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US struck Iran’s power network, which raised fears about further supply-chain disruption.
This backdrop saw the probability of a Fed hike by September inch up from 55% to 57%, whilst the number of hikes priced by December was up +1.1bps on the day to 27bps. In turn, Treasury yields edged higher as well, with the 2yr yield (+0.6bps) up to 4.14%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.5bps) stood at 4.55%. Those moves came as Fed speakers highlighted the potential for rate hikes. For instance, Dallas Fed President Logan (voter) said that “modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks” as the path towards a disinflation scenario was for now “more a hope than a likelihood”. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (non-voter) cautioned that even though the June inflation data was better than expected, inflation “is too hot and has been above target for too long”.  

Earlier on, European markets had mixed performance before the slump gathered pace later in the US session. On the bright side, the STOXX 600 (+0.16%) posted a third consecutive advance. But there was an uneven picture across the continent, with gains for the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.54%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.15%), alongside losses for the German DAX (-0.34%) and France’s CAC 40 (-0.05%). For sovereign bonds, there were more consistent losses, with 10yr bund yields (+1.3bps) up to 3.13%, whilst 10yr OAT yields (+1.7bps) hit a post-2009 high of 3.93%. European bonds weren’t helped by a continued rise in European natural gas prices, with futures up another +0.79% to a 3-month high of €54.79/MWh.

Here in the UK, data showed GDP grew by a monthly +0.1% in May (vs. unch expected). So gilts underperformed following the data, with the 10yr yield (+2.8bps) rising as investors dialled up the chance of Bank of England rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham is set to become leader of the governing Labour Party today, having been the only candidate nominated in the contest. He’s then set to become Prime Minister on Monday, after incumbent PM Keir Starmer formally resigns.

Finally, yesterday saw a notable milestone for gold (-2.07%), which fell back below $4,000 to close at its lowest level of 2026 so far at $3,976/oz. That’s a far cry from how it began the year, as January saw gold’s best monthly performance since 1999. But it’s now down over -7% since the year began, and over -25% from its late-January peak.  

Looking at the day ahead, US data releases include industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts and building permits for June, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for July. In the Euro Area, there’s also the final CPI print for June. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and the ECB’s Cipollone.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:35

Live Cattle Futures Tumble To Seven-Month Low, But Bernstein Says Beef Prices Will Stay Elevated

Despite our view that beef prices will remain elevated this year amid the smallest US cattle herd size in more than 60 years and mounting concerns over New World screwworm detections in Texas, live cattle futures in Chicago have tumbled this month as speculative traders unwind bullish bets.

Chicago live cattle futures have dropped to their lowest point since December 2025, as speculative traders liquidate positions amid weakening cash trade and falling wholesale beef prices.

The commodities firm CIH Cattle Team pointed out on X that both speculative and commercial traders are reducing their long exposure: "Live Cattle OI in a major downtrend! Down 11k over the past month and 83k contracts year-over-year; OI lowest since 2022 for July."

Live Cattle OI in a major downtrend!
Down 11k over the past month and 83k contracts YoY
OI lowest since 2022 for July#cattle #beef #ag pic.twitter.com/bGT12q5L8h

— CIH Cattle Team (@CIHCattleTeam) July 15, 2026

Feeder Cattle Index -$3.55
CIH Est: $365.52; Previous: $369.07
2,963 head dropping off (15% of index); 1,979 head traded (11%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle pic.twitter.com/8uQtyXI9da

— CIH Cattle Team (@CIHCattleTeam) July 16, 2026

Analysts from Hightower Report noted that the "market is vulnerable to further losses" as the physical trade slows and funds continue to liquidate positions, adding that a strong cash trade had been driving the long bull market, but cash is now a liability.

Chris Lehner, a senior livestock analyst at ADM Investor Services, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that the decline in cattle prices was mostly driven by spreads, with traders selling cattle positions and buying lean hog futures.

"Consumer beef demand has been strong, but indications of growing consumer headwinds could weigh on the sector going forward," University of Georgia Assistant Professor Will Secor wrote in a note for the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

Recent USDA data show that wholesale beef values have fallen to their lowest levels since late February. The national average retail price for ground beef remains sticky around $7 per pound.

Analysts at Bernstein spoke with industry experts this week and concluded that beef prices are likely to remain high for several reasons:

We left the conversation with greater conviction that beef prices will remain elevated for a while.

The experts emphasized how the current state of herd size, which has reached a 60-year low, is unlikely to expand given that (1) land has become more expensive and is being used by developers (due to population migration into Texas), making it hard for farmers to raise more cattle, (2) farmers are opting to sell heifers (given the current high spot prices) rather than raising them, as they fear that prices will eventually fall, making it economically sub-optimal to wait 2 years to increase the herd size through the eventual calves of that heifer. (3) recreational use of land has also become more profitable, with a buck sold at "30k a kill" vs "$500 per cattle".

Important to understand: When Will The Cattle Cycle Turn? BofA Has Answers For Beef Lovers

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 07:45

Private Credit: The New Junk Bond Market

Authored by Ed Dowd via Beyond the Narrative,

Private Credit: The New Junk Bond Market...Except It Lacks Transparency, Liquidity & Is About To Be Stress Tested

History

Private credit was born from the ashes of the Great Financial Crisis. In the aftermath of that debacle, regulators moved to limit the risks banks could take. Loans deemed too risky were no longer being originated by commercial banks. To fill that void, non-bank lenders stepped in, creating what is known as private debt or direct lending market. You may know these vehicles as Private credit funds, also referred to as business development companies (BDCs). These funds raised capital from pensions, endowments, insurance companies, and wealthy individuals.

Unlike junk bonds or corporate bonds, these loans are not publicly traded and are typically held to maturity. In fact Private credit has quietly taken a big chunk of market share from the traditional junk bond market. These private deals give borrowers speed, confidentiality, and customized terms they can't always get from public bonds, while investors get higher yields and perceived lower volatility. The public junk bond market has actually improved in average credit quality as the riskier companies moved into these opaque structures.

The funds have traditionally targeted middle-market companies with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, though the strategy has recently expanded to larger firms and bigger deals, including those in AI. Last November Morgan Stanley estimated that of the $1.5 trillion in external financing needs for the projected AI datacenter buildout that as much as 50% could be funded by Private credit (hold that thought).

One notable drawback of private credit funds is their high degree of opacity also called a lack of transparency. These funds disclose limited information about their loans and mark their own books, which can potentially mask deterioration in the portfolio. Because of the illiquid nature of these assets and the lack of a public trading market, the investments are inherently illiquid and often include gating provisions should too many investors want their money back at the same time.

Growth

The industry started the way any small new industry does: by filling a niche need. The fee structure, while lower than that of private equity, remained extremely attractive to managers, with total effective fees often running from 3% to 4% of NAV. The pitch to investors was straightforward: higher yields than public bonds and lower reported volatility because there is no daily mark-to-market. The risks, of course, are illiquidity and higher default rates in a recession (hold that thought).

Bottom line: The fat fee structure attracted many firms to get into this business and the Wall Street sales machine was engaged, went into action and the money flowed into these firms.

The Last Two Years of Growth

The industry itself is not nefarious, but like all credit markets, it is prone to excesses at the end of a cycle. Growth in assets under management (AUM) over the last two years (2024 & 2025) has been estimated at 50% to 75%. The entire category is now estimated to stand between $2.5 trillion and $3 trillion in AUM. When you examine credit creation across the broader banking system over that same period, most of the incremental loan growth in the economy flowed to these non-bank institutions from commercial banks (See chart below).

Source: Phinance Technologies US Economy Outlook 2026

The key question investors should ask is: With this explosive growth in AUM and competition for loans in the industry, have the funds found enough creditworthy borrowers in an already high-risk category, or rather did the inflows chase incrementally "junkier" credits with looser loan covenants?

Trouble in Paradise

Starting in the fourth quarter of last year, several high-profile Private credit bankruptcies emerged, most notably First Brands and Tri-Color Auto. Questions about the structure of Private credit funds began to surface, particularly around opacity and illiquidity. This led to investor redemptions and the gating of several prominent funds in Q1, including those from BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, Cliffwater, Blue Owl, and others. The pressure continued into Q2, with redemption requests accelerating across these major platforms. The problem is not improving, rather it is getting worse.

Implications

Effectively, the Private credit markets are now shut down and at best stalled. They are in redemption mode which could ultimately lead to liquidation mode at subpar pricing. While some new loans may still be originated, the market as a whole has slowed dramatically. As noted previously, we saw that the marginal credit creation of the past two years in the US economy has come from an industry known for being opaque and illiquid...and that driver of credit is now in question. The critical questions are: how large are the losses, how long will this downturn in private credit last, and what will recovery rates look like? PIMCO (one of the largest fixed income investors) has recently stated that the credit default cycle has begun and that losses will be higher than expected, with clear implications for the broader economy.

To make matters worse the lack of transparency and public quotes make determining what is going on in these funds extremely difficult for the capital markets to assess other than the fact that we are seeing outflows from the sector. The investors have unanswered questions and are like mushrooms growing in the dark on manure.

Private credit woes may also have implications for the commercial banking system. I mentioned above that most of the credit creation from commercial banks in 2024 & 2025 was Private credit and Private equity. Private credit funds rely on bank credit lines (subscription lines, NAV facilities, revolvers) for liquidity and leverage. These have grown rapidly with contingent liquidity to Non-Depositary Financial Institutions (NDFIs) standing at approximately $2.3 trillion overall, with Private credit market share rising over the last few years. Simultaneous drawdowns from credit stress in Private credit could transmit shocks to bank balance sheets. I don't believe it's a systemic problem yet but it bears watching. At a minimum it would likely curtail commercial bank enthusiasm for overall credit creation in the economy (i.e. consumer loans, commercial & industrial loans and real estate loans).

Earlier I told you to hold two thoughts in your head. First that AI funding datacenter buildout was contingent on the Private credit market to fund 50% of the external financing, and secondly, the default rates in Private credit would be higher in a recession as advertised initially by the industry. Given that flows in the Private credit industry are going the wrong way, and the industry is effectively paused...I don't see how AI data center build out will be funded by Private credit in the near term, and secondly I believe the industry's recession default assumptions are about to be tested very soon and could be higher than expectations.

Conclusion

Credit is the lifeblood of economic activity, and recently a great deal of it has flowed through this new channel. Significant losses have yet to be fully recognized, and they will ultimately hit pension funds, insurers, asset managers, and wealthy individuals who hold these investments. The commercial banks also have exposure to this market and losses in this sector could lead to a broader credit contraction. And finally, AI financing could become prohibitively expensive and pause or dramatically slow the capital expenditure cycle, affecting what has now become about 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization.

I believe the feedback loops are already underway and are likely to spread to the economy and eventually the equity markets.

P.S. If you are interested in a much deeper nitty gritty dive into Private credit markets and the risks check out the Unicus Investor on Substack: The Unicus Investor - Blackstone's BCRED: Earned $0.54. Paid $0.60. Cut to $0.54.

Disclosure: I have no financial relationship with Unicus...I just think they do good work.

"Be careful that you do not forget the Lord your God... Otherwise, when you eat and are satisfied, when you build fine houses and settle in them, and when your herds and flocks grow large and your silver and gold increase and all you have is multiplied, then your heart will become proud and you will forget the Lord your God..." Deuteronomy 8:11-14

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 07:20

Bromance Breaks Out Between "Man of Peace" Trump And Azerbaijani President

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev lavished praise on President Donald Trump's diplomacy, telling a group of journalists at the 4th Shusha Global Media Forum that the president achieved peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia in mere months, a historic feat that both Democrat and Republican administrations had failed to accomplish over nearly 30 years.

White House Photo by Daniel Torok

When asked by Breitbart News reporter Joshua Klein what distinguished Trump's approach, Aliyev said the difference was one of mindset for the willingness to treat an entrenched conflict as something to be settled rather than contained.

"Previous administrations spent nearly three decades pursuing policies that effectively froze the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict rather than resolving it," Aliyev said, noting that Trump "approached the conflict from an entirely different perspective."

The Azerbaijani president called Trump "a person who loves peace" who "sees peace as an opportunity."

"Trump and his team understood Azerbaijan's concerns, worked to persuade Armenia that peace served both countries' interests and ultimately created such a framework that peace became possible," the leader added.

Those negotiations culminated at the White House last August, when Trump brought together Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

The two leaders signed a Joint Declaration while their foreign ministers initiated a comprehensive peace agreement. The accord created a joint U.S.-Azerbaijani working group charged with carrying out its provisions within six months.

"For the first time in my experience, American officials kept their word so strictly," the Azerbaijani President said.

Aliyev said the deal opened the door to something larger, a Strategic Partnership Declaration between Washington and Baku, and described the relationship between the two nations as having reached "unprecedented" heights.

"This is amazing, this is unbelievable," he said. "This is something which we could only dream about."

Trump, rarely one to pass up praise, shared the Breitbart News article on Aliyev's remarks, prompting the Azerbaijani leader to heap on still more.

Mr. President (@realDonaldTrump), Thank you for sharing my remarks from the Shusha Global Media Forum, where I described you as a “Man of Peace,” citing Breitbart. With less than a month remaining until the first anniversary of the historic Washington Summit, I would like to… pic.twitter.com/02Lcs2lPKk

— Ilham Aliyev (@presidentaz) July 16, 2026

"Mr. President, Thank you for sharing my remarks from the Shusha Global Media Forum, where I described you as a "Man of Peace," citing Breitbart," Aliyev wrote on X. "With less than a month remaining until the first anniversary of the historic Washington Summit, I would like to once again express my sincere appreciation for your indispensable role in advancing lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Your leadership has made a historic contribution to bringing our region closer to peace, stability, and prosperity."

"You truly are a Man of Peace," he concluded.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 06:55

What's Really Going On? UK Government Announces Mass Stockpile Order, Wargames

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The British government is preparing to tell ordinary people a blunt message: the state is not coming to save you. Households will be urged to stockpile long-life food, bottled water, essential medicines and even wind-up radios as part of a new national resilience campaign launching later this year.

At the same time, ministers have confirmed Operation Albiston Shadow - the largest home defence wargame exercise in decades - will take place in 2027, testing responses to 'hybrid' attacks alongside a major NATO drill.

Officials frame it all around Russian cyber threats, sabotage risks and the need to update the old Government War Book. Yet the timing and language raise a sharper question about what Whitehall is actually preparing for.

BREAKING: The UK will hold its largest home defence exercise in decades next year

Dubbed 'Operation Albiston Shadow' Sky's @haynesdeborah says it will play out over a number of days and will be testing the UK's responses to 'hybrid' threats under the threshold of conventional... pic.twitter.com/HZTqjNlVvl

— Sky News (@SkyNews) July 14, 2026

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones stated "The government will do all it can and we are well prepared - but we can all play our part to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe. This campaign will help the public to take small but important steps to be prepared in case of emergencies and disruption - be that severe weather or a cyber-attack, which can impact access to power, water, or phone signal."

Armed Forces minister Louise Sandher-Jones was more explicit about the external threat: "Russia is not only a threat to NATO's eastern flank. It is a direct threat to the UK homeland and these exercises, together with important measures like updating our 'War Books', will help prepare us to meet that threat, as well as showing the British public how seriously we are taking it."

The Cabinet Office has updated the National Risk Register with new scenarios including cyber attacks on data, water and police systems, digital resilience failures modelled on the 2024 CrowdStrike outage, and foreign interference in democracy.

BREAKING: The UK will hold its largest home defence exercise in decades next year to better prepare the country for the possibility of war.
Dubbed "Operation Albiston Shadow", it will likely involve ministers as well as hundreds of officials from across government and the public...

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) July 14, 2026

Operation Albiston Shadow will involve hundreds of officials, ministers and agencies role-playing a multi-day national crisis focused on hybrid attacks below the threshold of conventional war. It is designed to test current assumptions and ensure readiness "should the worst ever happen."

The government is also quietly reviving elements of the old War Book - the detailed Cold War-era plan that once covered everything from industrial mobilisation and food stockpiles to mass casualty management and the survival of government itself. That document was largely abandoned after the Cold War; updating it now signals a serious shift.

On the surface this looks like prudent planning against a hostile foreign power. Russia has been accused of cyber operations, espionage and probing NATO airspace. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has previously cited Western intelligence assessments that Russia could attack a NATO member as soon as 2030.

Yet the distance between the United Kingdom and any realistic Russian ground threat is vast, and the emphasis on household stockpiles, critical infrastructure protection and whole-of-society mobilisation sits uneasily with pure external-defence rhetoric.

This is where the deeper context becomes impossible to ignore. In 2025, Professor David Betz of King's College London, a specialist in modern war and unconventional conflict, publicly argued that the British government is preparing for the possibility of civil conflict at home while using the Russian threat as a politically convenient cover.

Speaking about the 2025 National Security Strategy - which stated "For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat" and prioritised protection of undersea cables, energy pipelines and logistics hubs - Betz observed: "there is growing apprehension about the security of Britain, the security of its infrastructure specifically, and about the potential for active conflict at home in a very direct manner, effecting people in a very direct manner."

He continued: "But that's not external in origin, that's internal, and that has to do with the way our society is now configured, it is highly fractured." Betz described a society marked by "Low trust, highly fractured, and highly politically factionalised which is leading us increasingly inevitably into civil conflict."

On the Russian narrative he was blunt: "The fact of the matter is there is a great distance between us and Russia... we are not militarily threatened in a direct way on the ground by any obvious external enemy, even Russia... one of those is not occupying the village green with Russian soldiers, that simply, frankly, is a rather bizarre assertion."

The real concern, he argued, is domestic: "What they're concerned about is domestic conflict, and they perfectly understand this, but that's completely politically toxic for them to say so publicly, hence the convenience of saying 'we need to develop... a citizen's militia for the protection of critical infrastructure'. To say that we're doing this against the potential of Russian attack, which is frankly a logically absurd proposition, but it is convenient as a pretext."

Betz has repeatedly warned that Europe faces a statistically significant chance of civil war in a major country within five years, with spillover risks, and that governments may only be able to prepare rather than prevent the deterioration. His advice to individuals has been practical: reduce exposure to big cities if possible.

Betz's analysis tracks the same societal fractures - low social trust, political factionalism, rapid demographic change and collapsing faith in institutions - that successive governments have accelerated through mass immigration policies while denying their consequences.

Critical infrastructure hardening, citizen resilience messaging and large-scale home defence exercises make perfect sense if planners believe the primary threat could come from within a polarised population rather than from Russian troops landing on British beaches.

Updating the War Book and running Operation Albiston Shadow allow the state to rehearse command, control and societal mobilisation without ever having to admit the internal drivers.

The pattern is consistent with earlier signals. Promises of a volunteer Home Defence Force to protect infrastructure appear to have been quietly shelved amid budget pressures, yet the broader shift toward treating the homeland as a potential battlespace continues.

Officials stress "whole of society" involvement. That language is not limited to foreign hybrid warfare; it is exactly the vocabulary used when states prepare for internal disorder.

None of this proves an imminent civil war. It does show a government that has spent years denying the reality of social breakdown now scrambling to prepare the public and its own machinery for disruption that could overwhelm normal emergency responses.

Telling people to stockpile food and water is an admission that the state cannot guarantee continuity of basic services. Framing the entire effort around Russia provides political cover while the underlying fractures - created by policy choices that prioritised open borders and demographic engineering over cohesion - continue to deepen.

The British public is being told to get ready. The only remaining question is what exactly they are being prepared for. The official answer is Russian hybrid threats. The deeper reading, supported by serious academic analysis of societal conflict, points to something far closer to home.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 05:00