'Operation Rotten Apple': Nearly 2,200 Illegal Immigrants Arrested In New York

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) arrested nearly 2,200 illegal immigrants during an enforcement sweep in New York dubbed "Operation Rotten Apple," officials announced Sept. 1.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers participated in the operation from from July 27 to Aug. 29, arresting 2,197 illegal aliens across the state, including murderers, rapists, pedophiles, drug traffickers, and violent assailants, according to DHS.

"Thanks to the hard work of the men and women of ICE and our federal partners, Operation Rotten Apple did what sanctuary politicians in New York City and the state of New York refuse to do: made the Empire State safer," said Secretary Markwayne Mullin said in a statement.

New York Field Office Director Kenneth Genalo said federal immigration officers were harassed, threatened, targeted, and terrorized during the operation by local residents and community members.

The state's sanctuary policies allow criminals to be released back into the community instead of being handed over to federal immigration agencies, Genalo said during a press conference on Sept. 1. This forces federal immigration officers to locate the immigrants in their neighborhoods, at work, or in public spaces, he said.

"Local and state politicians continue to stand at podiums like this one and mislead the public about what these policies do," Genalo said. "And when elected officials excuse, minimize, or even celebrate the behavior, as they did in this case, they place a target on the back of the officers doing their jobs. ICE officers will not be intimidated by political rhetoric, sanctuary policies or street-level threats. Public safety is not optional. It is our duty."

New York's sanctuary policies have resulted in the release of 13,621 criminal illegal immigrants back onto the streets of New York, according to DHS.

Gov. Kathy Hochul rejected the accusations made by federal officials.

"New York works with federal law enforcement every day to take dangerous criminals off the streets," Hochul posted on X. "So spare us the theatrics."

Hochul also accused the federal government of not fully funding law enforcement in the state.

The illegal immigrants arrested included Bogdan Detrovich Gren from Ukraine. Gren was convicted of kidnapping, abduction resulting in death, criminal possession of a weapon, and murder.

Columbia national Andreas Bernal Chiquito was also arrested. His criminal history includes arrests for sexual conduct against a child and injury to a child less than 17.

Noel Celestino Lopez Martinez, an illegal alien from Mexico, was arrested. Martinez's history includes an arrest for first-degree rape and forcible compulsion.

Palvinder Singh, an illegal immigrant from India, was arrested during the operation as well. His criminal past includes a rape conviction in Germany.

Carlos Mendez-Acosta, an illegal alien from Venezuela, was arrested. His has been convicted of rape in the past.

Also arrested was Chhun Kim Pril, a Cambodia national who has a past conviction for drug trafficking.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 12:20

Dersh V Dave: Lawyer And Libertarian To Face Off Tonight On Iran War

LIVE NOW: 

https://t.co/nhqee1gb6k

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2026

*****************************

Tonight at 7pm ET, two prominent voices on opposite ends of the Iran debate will face off as constitutional lawyer and professor Alan Dershowitz debates  the world’s most famous libertarian, Dave Smith, over the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Just days ago was the six month-mark for the conflict that has become considerably larger than the initial strikes on Iran's nuclear program in June of last year during “Midnight Hammer”.

I’m debating Alan Dershowitz tonight on the Iran war at 7pm ET hosted by Zerohedge moderated by @MarioNawfal

— Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) September 2, 2026

After Israel and the United States launched their offensive in February, with major reporting (including in Israel) suggesting that it was Israel who killed Iran's Supreme Leader, the conflict has expanded into a prolonged war that has severely disrupted shipping out of the Strait of Hormuz for now over half a year. While actual bombing intensity has fluctuated as several peace attempts lapsed, it has picked up in recent days.

Dershowitz: "Bomb Iran"

Dershowitz had been making the case for military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities well before the current war began.

He argued on his podcast “Dershow” in April 2025 (before Midnight Hammer) that bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities was "absolutely essential to saving lives and to promoting peace in the Middle East and around the world."

Dershowitz argued that allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons would trigger a regional arms race and that Israel could not safely rely on deterrence. While he preferred a negotiated agreement, he ultimately concluded that military action was the only realistic alternative if Iran would not accept a deal permanently eliminating its nuclear capabilities.

"Bomb, bomb Iran. Not the people of Iran, not the people of Tehran, just the military targets, just the areas where they're developing nuclear weapons."

Months later, that debate is no longer hypothetical, so we look forward to hearing from Dershowitz specifically what Trump should do now?

Dave Smith And Anti-war Crowd Break With Trump

Smith backed Trump in 2024, in significant part because he believed Trump represented a better alternative to the interventionist foreign policy establishment (exemplified by Liz Cheney campaigning with Kamala Harris). But the Iran war fractured the coalition of anti-war voters who supported Trump.

By March, Smith was publicly arguing alongside Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson that Trump had betrayed his base by taking the country into another Middle Eastern war.

For Smith, Iran was the final break. For Dershowitz, it was not only justified but something he had explicitly advocated before the first bombs fell.

Tonight at 7pm ET, they'll debate whether the war was necessary, what it has accomplished, and where President Trump should go from here. Watch live on the ZeroHedge homepage, X feed, and YouTube channel.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 12:00

House To Vote On Locking Supreme Court At 9 Justices As Democrats Float Expanding It

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

The House is expected to vote this week on a proposed constitutional amendment that would fix the size of the Supreme Court at nine justices. The number of justices is currently set by statute, which Congress can change by simple majority. If ratified, the amendment would place the figure in the Constitution, where changing it would require another amendment.

The measure, H.J. Res. 1, was introduced by Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and consists of a single sentence: "The Supreme Court of the United States shall be composed of nine justices consisting of one chief justice and eight associate justices."

Under Article V of the Constitution, a proposed amendment must pass both the House and the Senate by a two-thirds vote before going to the states. The resolution gives states seven years from the date of submission to ratify it, and ratification requires the legislatures of three-fourths of the states - 38 of 50.

Some Democrats have been pressing for a larger court. Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) introduced legislation on May 4 to increase the court from nine justices to 13, and other prominent Democrats such as former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) have all recently floated a larger court.

Green's bill has no cosponsors and has not moved out of the Judiciary Committee. Earlier versions of the Judiciary Act, sponsored by Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) in 2021 and 2023, also proposed a 13-justice court and did not receive a committee vote. The committee report on H.J. Res. 1 cites those bills as the reason for acting, saying a recent set of expansion proposals makes it necessary to fix the number in the Constitution.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) listed the resolution among the week's floor items in his weekly schedule preview, alongside a separate resolution from Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.) condemning socialism and the Democratic Socialists of America.

"Radical left Democrats and the [Democratic Socialists of America] want to politicize and restructure the Supreme Court, effectively destroying the constitutional safeguards our Founders put in place," Scalise's office wrote in the preview. "For years, Democrats have called for packing the Supreme Court with more left-wing judges and now the [Democratic Socialists of America] is going even further by calling to abolish the Supreme Court and replace it with a judicial system subordinate to Congress."

Biggs said in a June statement after the resolution cleared committee that the court had become a target.

"Our nation's founders built a system of checks and balances to protect citizens from concentrated power - a central part being the U.S. Supreme Court, whose duty is to defend the rights and freedoms of every American, not to serve as a political tool for any party," Biggs said. "The judiciary was designed to be the quiet guardian of liberty, insulated from the passions of the moment. Unfortunately, special interests have been increasing their attacks on the Court, threatening to pack this iconic American institution to ensure favorable outcomes for their causes."

House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told reporters on Tuesday that he would vote against the resolution and characterized it as a message vote timed to the midterm elections.

"This is such a fake issue that Republicans are putting on," Aguilar said. "The American public aren't asking about this. I went around the country, the vice chair did a bunch of travel, I did a bunch of travel. Nowhere, ever, are people saying, 'You know what we should do? We should cap the number of Supreme Court justices.'"

Aguilar said he expected the resolution to reach the floor on Wednesday and that he would oppose it.

"I understand that Republicans are gonna try to put up votes - socialism vote, Supreme Court justices," he said. "These are all just kind of show votes. Assuming that this passes a rule, I'll vote no, because this is just a complete show vote."

Asked whether Democrats who have called for adding seats put the party at odds with its own leadership, Aguilar said expansion is not what the caucus is pushing.

"The argument among folks in our party is we want to reform the court, but we've said very clearly that that should be a code of ethics that they actually follow," he said. "There needs to be real reform within the government side of what we do, and that's every branch of government. Democrats have been loud and clear about that, and we continue to advocate for that, and we will when we're in the majority."

Aguilar's framing tracks what House Democratic leaders said in May, when Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Caucus Vice Chair Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) each said judicial reform would be a priority if Democrats win the majority in November. Lieu said at the time that a Democratic majority would "usher in massive Supreme Court reform," and Jeffries listed "massive judicial reform" alongside electoral and campaign finance reform. Neither specified what changes they would seek.

Judiciary Committee Debate and History

The House Judiciary Committee approved the resolution on June 3 by a vote of 15-8. No Democrat on the committee voted to report the resolution to the floor.

In dissenting views filed with the committee report, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the committee's ranking Democrat, criticized the vote as being about giving up congressional power rather than the number of justices.

"The question H.J. Res. 1 presents is not really about whether nine should suddenly become a magic number of justices for the Supreme Court," Raskin wrote. "It's about whether this Republican-controlled Congress - which has already surrendered congressional war powers, congressional taxing and tariff powers, and congressional spending powers to a president desiring to be a king - should now permanently relinquish another constitutional power that the Framers gave to us in Article I."

Raskin also accused the Supreme Court of being "profoundly partisan and lopsided" and wrote that the measure is meant to freeze the current court in place, pointing to the handling of two vacancies during President Barack Obama's and President Donald Trump's first terms.

He said that the amendment has no realistic path to becoming part of the Constitution.

Congress has changed the court's size several times, according to a Congressional Research Service report cited by the Judiciary Committee.

The Judiciary Act of 1789 created a six-member court. Congress voted in 1801 to reduce it to five, but that change never took effect - the law applied only once a seat came open, and Congress repealed it before any vacancy occurred.

Several statutes over the following decades changed the number again, reaching 10 justices during the Civil War, the largest the court has ever been. Congress cut the number to seven in 1866, again through attrition rather than removing sitting justices, then set it at nine in 1869. That was the last time Congress changed the court's size.

The report, "'Court Packing': Legislative Control over the Size of the Supreme Court," says scholars disagree about why Congress made those changes, with some pointing to practical needs such as caseload and others arguing they were driven by political considerations.

The committee report says that during the period when the court's size moved with the number of circuits, justices were also responsible for hearing cases in the lower federal courts, and that once that practice ended, there was no longer a reason to change the court's size as new lower courts were created.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 11:40

Second Largest US Grid Operator Proposes Reliability Rules For Data Centers

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator - the second largest US grid operator after PJM Interconnection - on Friday proposed a set of requirements large loads must meet before they can connect to the grid, including ramping and ride-through specifications.

The “interconnection reliability requirements” framework aims to improve MISO’s visibility into large load “characteristics and behavior, support reliable planning and operational decision-making, and establish scalable and technically justified expectations proportional to demonstrated reliability risk,” the grid operator said in its filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

The proposal is a part of MISO’s response to FERC’s mid-June “show cause” orders requiring major grid operators to set rules that meet certain criteria for adding data centers and other large loads to the grid. MISO said it plans to make additional proposals by a Nov. 16 deadline.

MISO’s proposal follows similar actions at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the PJM Interconnection aimed at setting reliability standards for large loads after several incidents where data centers suddenly tripped offline, raising concerns about grid stability.

On average, electric demand was relatively flat between 2009 and 2024, growing by about 0.5% a year, MISO told FERC. Now, the grid operator expects 1% to 2% annual growth through 2044, with higher growth rates in the near term, according to MISO, which runs the grid and wholesale power markets from Louisiana to Minnesota.

MISO’s proposal defines “large loads” as those larger than 50 MW, and “computational loads” as large loads that include at least 25 MW of demand from information technology equipment, such as servers, storage and networking hardware.

The separate computational load classification will allow MISO to target certain requirements just to data centers, the grid operator said.

“Computational loads may exhibit rapid and coordinated changes in demand, significant power-electronic behavior, and distinct responses to transmission system disturbances,” MISO said.

MISO’s proposed reliability framework sets requirements for its transmission customers that take service on behalf of large loads. It covers four main areas:

• Visibility requirements

To improve MISO’s visibility into large loads on its system, transmission customers must provide MISO with basic information and modeling data on large load facilities, according to the proposal. They must also provide real-time and day-ahead load forecasts for the facilities.

The information is needed “to support planning studies, operational assessments, and accurate representation of large loads behavior and system impacts,” MISO said.

• Phasor Measurement Unit requirements

The PMU requirements set monitoring expectations for computation loads through high-resolution, time-synchronized measurements, according to MISO.

“PMU data provides MISO with greater visibility into facility behavior during system disturbances and rapid operating changes, supporting model validation, performance verification, disturbance analysis, and identification of potential dynamic interactions with the transmission system,” MISO said. 

• Ramp requirements

MISO said its proposed ramp requirements address the rate at which computational loads may increase or decrease electric use during stable-state transitions. 

“Managing rapid changes in demand helps reduce real-time supply-demand imbalances, sudden change in transmission power flows, and associated operational impacts, while supporting more reliable system operation,” MISO said.

• Ride-through requirements

The proposed measures set minimum disturbance performance requirements for computational loads during voltage and frequency disturbances to reduce the risk of unnecessary disconnection or customer-initiated rapid reductions in demands during system events, MISO said. 

MISO’s proposal includes grandfathering provisions to provide certainty to existing and nearly complete commercial arrangements for large loads. MISO asked FERC to let its proposal take effect on Dec. 4.

MISO plans to file additional large load-related proposals, including for additional transmission products and associated study processes, protections against cost shifts and the treatment of generation service to “electrically proximate” large loads, MISO said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 11:00

WTI At 5-Week Highs As US-Iran Fighting Resumes; US Production At Record High As Cushing & SPR Hit 'Tank Bottoms'

Oil prices were volatile but are trading around unchanged this morning, but still near the highest closing level in five weeks (WTI topped $92 overnight) as hostilities broke out again between the US and Iran, renewing the threat to energy exports from the Middle East.

The US conducted a second day of strikes on the Islamic Republic overnight, with President Donald Trump threatening more attacks if Tehran responded. Within hours, Iran retaliated against Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, countries that host American forces.

“The market is now clearly pricing in a direct military confrontation, while the prospect of a negotiated solution has diminished,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen.

“This is a worse combination for the energy market than the situation we faced just a few days ago and even in April. Today, inventories are even more depleted.”

Priecs pared some gains this morning on Venezuela news and more much-debated news from Secretary Wright about 'shadow' flows through the Strait.

API

• Crude -2.6mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +348k

• Distillates -265k

DOE

• Crude -4.45mm (+60k exp)

• Cushing +80k

• Gasoline -1.17mm

• Distillates +796k

US Crude stocks declined for the first time in five weeks (more than expected and more than API reported) while Gasoline stocks continued to drawdown and Cushing saw a de minimus build. Distillates stocks did see a build (good news) for the first time in five weeks...

Distillate supplies on the East Coast are now at record lows, while supplies on the West Coast are the lowest since May 2025. The vast majority of heating oil demand in the US occurs in the Northeast, so this is less than ideal with just a month to go before heating season starts.

Another brutal week for gasoline imports, which fell to 370,000 barrels a day last week. That’s below levels for the same time in 2020. There’s just not a lot of relief for markets desperate for more supply.

Amid all the clamor that Venezuela will be used to refill it, the SPR saw yet another drawdown last week (-3.12mm barrels) for the biggest overall crude draw since July...

The SPR is now at its lowest level since 1982...

US Crude production surged back to record highs...

Refinery crude refinery runs soared to the highest in seven years, as oil processing in both the Gulf Coast and Midwest moved higher, with the Midwest at an all-time record high. Runs on the Gulf Coast are the highest for this time of the year. 

WTI holding around $90...

The return to a hot war has once again thrust shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz into jeopardy, as the two sides remain at loggerheads and diplomatic efforts yield few results.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 10:45

Energy Secretary Wright Says Venezuela Could More Than Double Oil Production

Venezuela’s crude oil production rate could double in the next few years thanks to new deals set to be signed with U.S. and other foreign energy companies, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said. 

“The investment in these deals will massively grow available oil production, which will give downward pressure on oil prices, but the biggest kink right now in gasoline and diesel prices is refining capacity,” Wright said during a one-day visit to Caracas, as quoted by OilPrice.

Venezuela’s peak oil production rate was about 3 million barrels daily, but that was in the late 1990s. Since then, amid U.S. sanctions and underinvestment, production has dropped to 1.25 million barrels daily this year. Exports are running slightly above 1 million barrels daily, with the biggest portion going to U.S. refiners along the Gulf Coast.

Last week, news broke that the U.S. federal government was negotiating a direct ownership stake in the country’s high-yield field that contains combined reserves of 90 billion barrels of crude. At the end of last week, President Trump called the deal “historic”, covering 17 fields with target production of 1.5 million barrels per day. The deal will involve a U.S.-based company owned by a Venezuelan tycoon, which has already been granted 14 oil deals by the Venezuelan government.

The U.S. government will have rights to a 35% stake in the company plus access to 20% of North American Blue Energy Partners’ production at cost. The U.S. federal government will also have the right of first refusal for the purchase of the other 80% of NABEP’s production from Venezuelan fields.

Analysts have noted that such a major boost in Venezuelan crude oil production would require substantial investments, with Rystad Energy putting the total at some $180 billion, which would need to be invested over the next ten years.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 10:35

Factory Orders Rebound Strongly in July

Despite Manufacturing PMIs sliding, US Factory orders were expected to rebound from a two-month decline in July (the latest data reported today) and rebound they did, rising 0.9% MoM (more than the expected 0.7% increase) with June's 0.3% decline revised up to a 0.2% decline...

That is the best monthly rise since April, lifting orders up 9.9% YoY - the second best annual gain since Oct 2022!

Core Factory orders rose 0.6% MoM (significantly better than the expected 0.4% rise)...

That is the 8th rise in Core Orders in the last nine months with annual growth holding above 9% YoY.

And no, it wasn't all war spending as Ex-Defense, orders still rose 0.98% MoM and 8.79% YoY...

The final July headline and core durable goods order printed the same as the preliminary data (+1.1% MoM and +0.4% MoM respectively)

Headline durable goods orders are up 13.0% YoY!

But Orders and Shipments for Non-Defense, Ex-Aircraft Capital Goods fell notably from their preliminary levels (0.0% MoM vs 0.3% exp and +1.2% vs +1.4% exp respectively).

Hard to argue the economy is in trouble based on this data BUT this is July... so very stale.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 10:12

Yen Suddenly Spikes Sparking Intervention Chatter

Having broken hand held above 160/USD, this morning (as the G20 meeting comes to an end), the yen is suddenly spiking higher, prompting desk chatter of another intervention...

“The market remains on high intervention alert,” said Alex Cohen, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of America.

There was no obvious news or macro catalyst for such a move, and for now, there is no follow through but it appears 160 is the new line in the sand for the Bessent/BoJ plunge protectors.

Some traders suggested it was a simple stop-hunt (which could still be instigated by 'authorities').

“We hear rumors that this is intervention, but I am skeptical based on the size of the move,” said Andrew Hazlett, a foreign-exchange trader at Monex Inc.

Still, the moves in the yen against the dollar and euro “could not be explained otherwise.”

The magnitude of the move, however, fell short of those seen about a month ago, when Tokyo and Washington joined forces to support the yen to a degree unseen in decades, raising the stakes for anyone betting against the currency. Their first coordinated yen-buying operation since 1998 sparked a rally of about 5% from the weakest level in around four-decades near 164 per dollar, with both governments signaling further joint action if needed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 09:35

The Leipzig Incident Has All The Hallmarks Of A False Flag

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

It was carried out to justify the German economy’s evolution to war footing, distract from the resultant problems, and legitimize a future serious escalation against Russia.

Germany blamed Russia for last month’s incident in Leipzig when one explosives-laden drone was found on the tarmac in proximity to Ukrainian cargo planes, another reportedly collided with a separate cargo plane as it tried to land but failed to explode, and a third was later found close to the premises. Putin condemned their claim, shared his opinion that it was a false flag due to them planting evidence, and speculated that the motive was to distract from domestic problems by fearmongering about Russia.

While skeptics might roll their eyes, the Leipzig incident has all the hallmarks of a false flag.

• For starters, Germany is implying cartoonish incompetence on the part of Russia. The public is supposed to believe that the most skilled drone operators in the world, who were tasked with what would have been the most sensational Hybrid War attack on NATO ever, left a drone on the tarmac, got unlucky when another failed to explode after it hit a landing cargo plane, and left another nearby. That’s difficult to believe.

• The second point to make in support of Putin’s hypothesis is that something similar happened last fall when unknown drones forced major airports in Scandinavia to temporarily ground all flights. Zelensky predictably blamed Russia and called for closing the Danish Straits to its shipping. As with the Leipzig incident, no evidence was ever shared in support of that claim, but it served as the precedent to blame Russia for mysterious drone-related incidents in Europe in order to justify more escalations against it.

• And finally, while Zelensky’s proposed escalation ultimately never came to fruition (most likely to avoid a hot NATO-Russian war), an escalation of some sort might follow the Leipzig incident. It was argued here in late August that NATO would expect to gain more from a serious escalation with Russia than the inverse, which could take the form of resuming summer’s failed drone campaign against Russia at scale indefinitely in pursuit of its deindustrialization and demilitarization. That might be attempted next year.

Observers should remember that Germany, which is now Ukraine’s second-most-important military patron behind the US, reached a deal in the spring to develop Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities. Its economy is also getting on war footing as Germany rapidly remilitarizes in furtherance of its goal to command Europe’s largest army ahead of the EU’s prediction of a possible war with Russia around 2030. This has proven unpopular with voters, however, ergo the need to justify it through the Leipzig incident.

To recap the explanation of Putin’s false flag hypothesis, last fall’s Russian drone scare in Scandinavia served as the pretext for blaming the Kremlin for future such incidents without evidence, which Germany has now done with the Leipzig one. The narrative of Russian drone operators’ incompetence is difficult to believe, however, but it’s still being pushed to justify the Germany economy’s evolution to war footing, distract from the resultant problems, and legitimize a future serious escalation against Russia.

As was written, this could take the form of resuming summer’s failed drone campaign against Russia at scale indefinitely in pursuit of its deindustrialization and demilitarization, but that risks crossing Russia’s nuclear threshold per its updated doctrine. At the very least, Putin would once again mildly “escalate to de-escalate” against Ukraine, but there’s always a chance that everything spirals out of control. It would therefore be best for Germany to eschew escalation just like the Scandinavian states ultimately did.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:45

Bloomberg Agri Index Posts Biggest Monthly Jump Since Arab Spring Riots As Food-Crisis Risks Mount

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) posted its largest monthly gain since the chaotic days of the Arab Spring riots and is nearing a breakout above its 2023 highs, signaling a broad-based acceleration in agricultural commodity prices. The upside momentum comes as Wall Street increasingly warns that a perfect storm of factors, from El Niño and higher fertilizer and diesel prices to disruptions in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, could push the global food system toward another crisis.

From veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie turning bullish and UBS urging clients last week to "position for a commodity upcycle" to warnings from Barclays analyst Craig Rye and JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi, the message from Wall Street is becoming increasingly harder and harder to ignore: Agricultural prices are breaking out, raising the risk that today's physical commodity squeeze develops into a worldwide food crisis next year.

For August, BCOMAGSP logged an impressive 13.5% gain, its largest monthly increase since July 2012's 14.3% gain - around the time of Arab Spring spread across Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain. 

BCOMAGSP is up 39% from its 2024 low. If the upside momentum continues, the index, which tracks major crops and soft commodities, is poised to take out its 2023 highs.

Our latest coverage:

• Barclays Warns Next Commodity Shock Is Taking Shape: What You Need To Know
• Agricultural Commodity Prices Break Out As JPMorgan’s Food Crisis Warning Gets Louder

Snapshot of the broader commodity complex:

1. Hormuz tanker strikes send Brent above $92. Two oil tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Brent traded around $92.20, up roughly 2%, while WTI traded between $87.80 and $88.00, up approximately 2.3% to 2.6%.

2. Gold falls below $4,400 as the 10-year yield approaches 4.79%. Spot and futures gold traded between approximately $4,370 and $4,400, down roughly 1.3% to 1.9% following Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Markets are pricing in approximately 60% odds of a September hike.

3. Silver breaks into the $65 range, while palladium fares worse. Silver traded between approximately $64.70 and $65.40, down 2.4% to 2.7%; palladium traded around $1,340, down roughly 2.8%; and platinum traded around $1,768, down approximately 1.5%. Gold and silver are selling off together with rising yields, suggesting this is not an isolated gold ETF liquidation.

4. Chinese refiners bid ESPO to a $7 premium over Brent. 

6. Long-term uranium hits another all-time high at approximately $96.50 per pound. The blended UxC and TradeTech long-term U3O8 price reached $96.50, while the UxC long-term price rose $2 to $96. Spot uranium traded between approximately $89.60 and $89.75, up roughly $3.

7. Distillate tightness remains the underreported oil story. Heating oil traded around $4.46, up 1.1%, while gasoline gained only 0.4% to approximately $3.09. Older but still relevant research continues to circulate showing US distillate inventories at 23-year lows and 13% to 14% below seasonal norms. Crude inventories are 6% below the five-year average following an eight-week, 47.5-million-barrel draw.

8. US Henry Hub remains weak at $2.92, while TTF and UK gas surge. NYMEX natural gas traded around $2.92, down 0.3%; TTF traded around €71.50, up 2.4%; and UK gas surged approximately 7%. US natural gas remains the orphan of the energy complex.

10. Copper slips roughly 1% despite the oil shock, highlighting the split between growth concerns and physical tightness. COMEX copper traded between approximately $6.51 and $6.61, down roughly 1.2%. Prices remain near cycle highs, with an August peak of approximately $6.75 and LME copper near $14,400 per ton. The physical-tightness and US inventory-migration story from August is fading into a rates- and growth-driven market.

11. Long-term breakouts in wheat and soybeans remain in play. Chicago wheat gained approximately 1.5% to 2%, trading between roughly 772 and 785, while soybeans gained around 1%, trading between approximately 1,288 and 1,301. Soft-commodity commentary indicates that wheat, soybeans and sugar have made long-term bullish breakouts, while cotton remains offered.

12. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is today's key event risk for the entire commodity complex. Foreign-exchange and commodity desks have flagged the ISM report as the session's primary catalyst on top of Warsh and Hormuz. A strong print could increase the odds of another rate hike, inflicting further pain on gold and silver while producing a mixed response in copper. A weak print could trigger a risk-off move that still lifts oil if interpreted as stagflationary.

13. Trump's SPR-for-Venezuelan-oil proposal and the country’s 65 billion barrels of reserves.

14. UAE refinery returns to full capacity after sustaining wartime damage.

15. Ukraine strikes the Ust-Luga oil terminal on the Baltic Sea.

16. Retail investors continue buying the gold dip, while CTAs and broader positioning appear offered.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:35

ADP Reports August Saw Weakest Job Growth Since January, Wage Growth Dips

Following a weak JOLTS report (and mixed manufacturing PMI employment reports), ADP was expected to report a modest 47k increase in American jobs in August.

It disappointed with only 37K jobs added in August (while July's 44k addition was revised up modestly to 46k)...

This is the weakest monthly addition since January.

Goods Producers shed jobs at the fastest pace since October...

Manufacturing, professional services, and information shed jobs.

Education and health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality all showed solid hiring.

Base Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged at 3 percent, while pay growth for job-changers edged down...

Gross Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged at 4.4 percent, while pay growth for job-changers slowed from 7.5 percent to 7.3 percent.

"Pay can tell us a lot about today's choppy hiring," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"To understand hiring patterns, you have to look deeply into where pay growth is accelerating, where it's slowing, and for whom."

Notably, Richardson concludes that "Once-predictable wage growth has been overtaken by the complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI's effects on jobs."

This doesn't bode well for Friday's payrolls report, and raises the question of whether The Fed will really hike rates with such weak employment data? Or is it all about its inflation-fighting credibility now?

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:25

Futures Swing As Global Bond Yields Follow Oil Tick For Tick

US equity futures are lower with Tech underperforming as oil prices / bond yields move higher (although off session highs), both in response to an acceleration in "kinetic hostilities" in the Middle East. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1%, off session lows, while Nasdaq futures rise 0.4% after Dell shares jumped after the company boosted its annual sales forecast by $25 billion. In premarket trading, Semis / Memory are weaker and AVGO is -53bp with earnings after the Close today. Mag7 are mostly lower as are Software names with Hardware buoyed by earnings. Defensives and Energy gain while Cyclicals drop. According to JPM's Market Intel team, which on Monday turned Neutral on stocks (from Bullish), equities will continue to struggle until crude / rates stabilize. Europe’s Stoxx 600 retreated 0.7%, while Asian stocks fell the most in two weeks. WTI trades around $90/bbl as the yield curve steepens, having erased gains from Bessent’s "Treasury Twist". The Dollar is also higher as the Debasement trade continues to struggle. Commodities are mostly lower with Energy the lone bright spot and Ags underperforming Metals; keep an eye on gold to see if $4,300 acts as support. Today’s macro data focus is on the August ADP employment change (8:15am) and July factory orders (10am). Fed calendar is blank apart from Beige Book release at 2pm

In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet +0.1%, Apple +0.2%, Tesla +0.1%, Nvidia -0.1%, Meta -0.2%, Amazon -0.2%, Microsoft -0.4%)

• Credo Technology (CRDO) falls 9%, suggesting that the communications equipment company’s second-quarter revenue forecast beat was not good enough to impress investors after the stock’s 44% rally this year.
• Dell Technologies (DELL) jumps 8% after the company boosted its annual sales forecast by $25 billion due to surging demand for servers to run artificial intelligence tasks.
• EyePoint (EYPT) slips 3% after TD Cowen downgraded the drug developer to hold, citing a challenging regulatory path following a trial failure for an eye disease drug.
• FuelCell (FCEL) tumbles 15% after the power plant builder reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• G-III Apparel (GIII) falls 10% after the clothing company posted disappointing second quarter sales and provided a third quarter revenue forecast that also missed expectations.
• GitLab (GTLB) surges 21% after the software company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
• Knife River (KNF) falls 2% after JPMorgan analyst Adrian Huerta cut the recommendation on the building materials company to underweight, writing that he doesn’t expect a “meaningful change” in public funding in Oregon, its largest market.
• MongoDB (MDB) is down 12%, with growth in the software company’s Atlas product seen coming in below elevated expectations. However, analysts are broadly positive on the results overall, which topped expectations, while the full-year forecast was raised.
• Sprinklr (CXM) falls about 2% after reported second-quarter revenue that was slightly weaker than expected; the software company’s stock has soared about 55% off a June low, as of its last close.

In other corporate news, Nvidia is in advanced talks to acquire artificial intelligence startup Hugging Face in a transaction that may total about $14 billion. Artificial intelligence coding startup Cognition AI is set to close a new round of funding that would vault its valuation to about $47 billion. GitLab shares rally as much as 20% in premarket trading after the software company beat second-quarter expectations and boosted its full-year forecast.

Brent crude hovered near $94 a barrel and WTI traded around $90 (although it has since dipped below) after Washington carried out its second round of attacks against Iran in three days. US diesel prices hit the highest since April. Bonds fell in most major markets, with the 30-year Treasury yield trading at 5.28%, near the 19-year high hit before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent intervention. Chipmakers were under pressure in premarket trading even after Dell surged on a strong revenue forecast.

The latest rally in energy prices is compounding worries about persistent inflation, pushing up the premium traders demand for bonds already straining under heavy government spending and corporate demand. Traders put the odds of rate hikes this month at more than 50% for three major central banks, including nearly 70% for the Fed.

 “The new baseline seems to be that the Fed will, after all, hike rates in September,” wrote Chris Turner at ING Groep NV. “Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it reasonably clear that inflation is not falling quickly enough to target and, given a reasonably strong economy, the Fed will need to act.”

While the selloff in bonds is showing few signs of letting up, the relatively modest moves in yields have offered traders some assurance. The retreat has been orderly and broad-based, rather than driven by credit risks or liquidity stress, said Stephan Kemper at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany.

“It suggests the market is pricing a higher-for-longer rate path, not a credit event or recession,” Kemper said. The key to lower yields lies in inflation expectations, he said, adding that any relief on longer-dated rates could “trigger a strong move higher in equities as fundamentals remain very strong.”

Dell became the latest company to reinforce optimism around the AI trade. The company increased its annual sales forecast by $25 billion in a further sign of surging demand for servers to run AI tasks. The stock — already the third-biggest boost to the S&P 500 after a 240% rally this year — jumped another 9.3% in premarket. Shares of HP Enterprise, which reports earnings after the market close, also rose, advancing 5.2%.

Yet, there are signs that investors are addressing lingering worries about high AI-linked valuations by expanding exposure. Around 115 S&P 500 stocks are on Evercore ISI’s “negative beta” list, where the rolling six-month one-day percentage change is inverse to the benchmark. The share has crossed levels last seen in the dot-com bust in 2000-2001, suggesting that “investors have proactively sought diversification” rather than waiting for a “bubble burst,” strategist Julian Emanuel writes.

Robust signals from Corporate America are offering equities a measure of support. Corporate cash piles are back to record highs despite the surge in AI spending, according to analysis by Societe Generale SA. Investors have also continued to pour money into equities, with global stocks attracting about $1.1 trillion this year, the strongest inflows since 2021, according to data from HSBC Holdings Plc.

While stock markets have remained relatively resilient, “that’s likely going to change once Treasury yields and Japanese yields break through current resistance levels,” said Patrik Lang at Global Gate Asset Management. “Positioning is a bit stretched, and short-term indicators are at overbought levels,” he said. “All of that points, regardless of the fundamental situation, to consolidation in the coming weeks.”

Elsewhere, governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated that the European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs next week, though he stayed wary on what comes after that. Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata, one of the bank’s most hawkish members, also left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase. 

European stocks are heading for a third day of declines, while futures are also pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as rising bond yields continue to deter investors. Higher oil prices continue to play a role, with Brent crude futures at around $95 a barrel. European natural gas futures have risen close to 3%. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Deutsche Bank shares rise as much as 2.5% to trade at a new 15-year high after Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded the German lender to buy, predicting it to deliver faster earnings growth than the wider sector from 2027
• InterContinental Hotels shares gain as much as 2.4% after UBS upgraded the hotelier to buy, to reflect an “attractive opportunity,” with the stock now trading at a discount or a lower-than-historical premium to certain peers
• Syensqo rises as much as 3.7% as private equity firms including Blackstone and Apollo Global Management consider bids for the chemical company’s performance and care division, according to people familiar with the matter
• TT Electronics jumps as much as 13% after the maker of electronic components for performance-critical applications posted stronger 1H profit growth than expected and said annual earnings are expected to be above current expectations
• PGE rises as much as 2.8% after Poland’s largest utility posted strong preliminary 2Q earnings that confirmed it’s benefiting from rising power prices, and its large coal production is helping insulate it from gas supply risks
• Lottomatica shares fall as much as 11.5%, the biggest intraday drop since May 2023, after the Italian gaming group announced an all-share deal to acquire Spanish rival Cirsa
• GEA Group shares fall as much as 3.6% after the company’s biggest shareholder, Kuwait Investment Authority, offered part of its stake in the German firm at a discount to the previous close
• GB Group shares tumble as much as 5.7%, briefly hitting their lowest level since 2014, after being downgraded at Berenberg in wake of the identity verification and fraud prevention company lowering its guidance last month

Asian stocks fell, following US peers lower as renewed concerns over rising oil prices and global bond yields fueled worries about the outlook for interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.1%, snapping a six-day rally, with technology driving broad-based declines. South Korea’s Kospi slid 4% and Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.9% while benchmarks fell 1% or more in Taiwan, China and Australia.  New Zealand stocks bucked the region’s broader losses and rose after the nation’s central bank raised its key interest rate for a second straight meeting in an effort to head off inflation. A rate decision is due Thursday in Malaysia.

Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, sees reason for caution. “Our sense is that the level of rates is near the point where it starts to pressure public, private balance sheets and equity valuations,” he said. “There is downside risk to risk assets in the near term.”

In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up almost 0.1%. The yen is outperforming, rising 0.2% against the greenback after BOJ’s Hajime Takata left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase.

Treasury futures edge higher in early US session, paring small declines that lifted 2- to 10-year yields to fresh YTD highs. US 10-year yield is little changed around 4.80%, earlier rising just shy of 4.82%, with German and UK counterparts higher by 4bp and 5bp respectively; US 2s10s spread is around 1bp steeper on the day, near middle of Tuesday’s range. Bunds and gilts remain under pressure following Treasuries’ late Tuesday slide: UK 10-year yields are up ~6 bps to 5.28%, the highest since 2007, and German 10-year yields are nearing 3.4%, having not topped that level since 2011. Muting Wednesday’s price action so far, oil’s advance stalled as investors weigh latest breakout of US-Iran hostilities. Japanese front-end yields climbed during Asia session after BOJ board member Hajime Takata left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes. IG dollar issuance slate includes several deals already; five offerings totaled $6 billion on Tuesday.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.5%, S&P 500 futures 0.2% as intensifying US-Iran hostilities support oil near top of recent ranges. Precious metals and Bitcoin are down.

US economic data calendar includes August ADP employment change (8:15am) and July factory orders (10am). Fed calendar is blank apart from Beige Book release at 2pm

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as a U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off one of Tehran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Unlike ‌previous sanctions campaigns, when Iranian crude continued reaching buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves. Reuters  
• Fighting between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz intensified after a period of relative calm, triggering a fresh jump in oil prices. The US military carried out strikes targeting radar systems and mine-laying capabilities along Iran’s southern coast, and Iran retaliated with drone and missile volleys on US bases across the Middle East: BBG
• The U.S.-Canada trade standoff is threatening to stretch past the midterm elections. The White House is shrugging off the threat. With a week to go before Canada imposes its retaliatory tariffs, aimed at key industries in states like Ohio and Texas with competitive Senate elections, tensions between Washington and Ottawa are at a steady simmer, with no sign of de-escalation. Politico  
• Russia since 2023 has been helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, and Putin has vowed to continue to provide support to Iran. FT/Washington Post  
• Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata, one of the central bank’s most hawkish members, left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes, indicating he might push for a faster pace of tightening. The BOJ has raised its benchmark interest rate in quarter-point increments in the most recent three moves, while spacing the moves roughly six months apart. The size and frequency may change as circumstances evolve. BBG
• Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan will debate raising interest rates including in ‌September with a focus on whether inflationary risks were heightening, signaling a strong chance of a hike this month. Reuters 
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates Wednesday, warning that risks for higher inflation remain in play for the economy. The central bank raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with market expectations. BBG 
• A closely followed measure of artificial intelligence token prices touched fresh lows this week, the latest sign of deflating prices in an increasingly competitive landscape. 
• Anthropic is releasing a new version of its powerful Fable artificial intelligence model that it says is better at coding and science tasks, as well as more economical. BBG
• OpenAI is to restrict Astra model after rating it a critical cyber risk: WSJ.
• Dell became the latest company to reinforce optimism around the AI trade. The company increased its annual sales forecast by $25 billion in a further sign of surging demand for servers to run AI tasks. BBG

Iran News

• US President Trump posted "I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable."
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran doesn't control the Strait of Hormuz and the US took out Iranian radar along the strait, as well as got 17mln bbls of crude out on Monday. Bessent said that China pays Iran in yuan and when yuan cannot be converted to dollars, Iran starves, while he said they are in an acceleration phase of Iran bankruptcy and maybe Iran will lash out more kinetically.
• US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st in which they struck targets including air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.
• US strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday included two Iranian government tankers under a new 'tanker for tanker' approved by US President Trump to deter Iranian attacks on tankers, according to Axios. Furthermore, US officials said around 100 targets were attacked during the strikes, while it was separately reported that the US assessed Iran was planning to expand attacks against commercial ships.
• Pakistan's foreign ministry said Army Chief Munir visited Tehran and generated substantial momentum on the Strait of Hormuz issue and that Pakistan is positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table.
• Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC also warns of additional penalties for shipping companies.
• IRGC said it targeted US bases in Erbil, Iraq with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, while Kuwaiti air defences confronted attacks by hostile drones. Additionally, the IRGC said it attacked a US Marines base in Jordan known as Camp Tibtain with missiles and claimed that a large number of US forces were killed in the attack. However, US and Jordan officials reported no casualties.
• Russia has been secretly helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, according to FT.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured as the risk-off mood persisted following a surge in oil prices and upside in yields, triggered by the latest exchange of US-Iran strikes, while President Trump warned that the "biggest attack of them all... is waiting in the wings" and that there will be very little left of Iran. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners, materials, resources and tech stocks, while better-than-expected GDP data was overshadowed by the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Nikkei 225 fell amid pressure from mining and tech, while there were comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who called on Japan to stop reflation and shift from Abenomics to Takaichi-nomics. KOSPI led the declines in the region with tech stocks hit alongside the higher yield environment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad downbeat mood amid weakness in some auto names following monthly sales updates and with the mainland not helped after the PBoC's open market operations amount was at zero.

Top Asian News

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he emphasised the importance of sound formulation and communication of monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations in a meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda. Furthermore, he expressed strong support for Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to address the substantial undervaluation of the yen, while he noted the role of yen weakness in contributing to domestic inflationary pressures in Japan.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Japan should stop the reflation now and that Abenomics is done, stating that Abenomics has worked and it is time for Takaichi-nomics. Bessent also commented that Japan is one of the most vibrant economies of the world now and that it succeeded in reflating, but now needs to shift.

European bourses trade lower again on Wednesday, as the US and Iran exchange strikes for a second consecutive night. US CENTCOM said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets, while Iran's IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq and launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain. Sectors have a slight negative tilt. Banks top the sector pile, with Travel & Leisure and Telecoms rounding out the sector outperformers. To the downside is Autos, followed by Media and Retail. An update from STOXX is lifting Nokia (+1.0%) this morning, after announcing that the Finnish telecom giant, alongside Engie (-0.3%), will join the Euro Stoxx 50. This will be effective September 21st, replacing Volkswagen (-2.7%) and Wolters Kluwer (-2.7%) in Europe's blue chip index.

Top European News

• Spanish Unemployment Change (Aug) 44.419K vs. Exp. 15.4K (Prev. 19.517K).

FX

• Mixed action in FX today with G10s continuing the bias seen throughout the week, USD is stronger against most peers as yields fail to moderate, NZD to the greatest extent but JPY outperforming (USD/JPY -0.4%).
• JPY is stronger in all major crosses with performance pronounced in EUR/JPY after pressure in the early European morning. The cross fell to a 184.55 base before paring some of the move back above the 21 and 59 DMA. No specific headline driver but known hawk Takata implied that the BoJ could possibly hike 50bps in September or deliver back-to-back hikes “need to consider a broad range of options, not just a 25bps hike each time”. However, it is worth putting these remarks in the context of Takata being a hawkish dissenter and him wanting a policy rate of 2.00% at a rapid pace; such an outcome would be unlikely to sway the rest of the board. On top of this, Governor Ueda provided some remarks overnight. He more-or-less provided two-way commentary, and ultimately did not dissuade market bets of a hike in September.
• RBNZ failed to impress hawkish expectations in its policy meeting where the OCR was raised by 25bps to 2.75% as expected. While flagging further tightening, the bank highlighted downside risks to the economy and rate projections showed less expected tightening than markets expect, with the OCR projection for December 2026 seen at 2.81% (OIS Implied Rate: 2.99%), September 2027 at 3.12% (OIS Implied Rate: 3.48%) and December 2027 3.15% (OIS Implied Rate 3.75%). As such, NZD was pressured against all G10 currencies, NZD/USD -1.1% to a 0.5825 base just below the 50DMA and will likely look to the 13th August low @0.5821, NZD could remain offered in this dim risk environment, especially if market pricing narrows compared to MPC rate projections.
• AUD was lifted after stronger-than-expected Australian GDP data, albeit remains weaker against the stronger Buck. AUD/NZD +1% testing the 1.2258 June high at the time of writing.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning. USTs (-1 tick) are mildly pressured, whilst Bunds (-52 ticks) and Gilts (-60 ticks) extend on recent pressure. Whilst USTs appear to be taking a breather following the recent downside, Bunds and Gilts continue to be subject to hefty selling, amidst higher energy prices and ongoing fears surrounding fiscal/debt sustainability.
• USTs currently hold within a 107-09 to 107-14 range. For the short-end, focus will no doubt be on key domestic data which will help decide between whether the Fed opts to hold or hike at its September meeting. The US Jobs Report is due this Friday, and the CPI late next week; a hot report on both fronts will likely see money markets extend their bets of a hike this month (currently seen at 68%).
• The US yield curve is ever-so-slightly steeper this morning. The US10yr (4.80%) remains at elevated levels, with focus on whether it can move towards the 5.00% mark. That would likely require a significant escalation on the geopolitical front and/or hawkish NFP/CPI reports to cement a September move. Even if that does not come to fruition, the 10yr may remain above the 4.75% mark until the geopolitical situation materially improves.
• Bunds and Gilts are ultimately pressured by elevated European gas prices, which are the highest in three years. There has been a lack of material newsflow dictating price action this morning, with only ECB’s Makhlouf and Nagel on the wires. The former said that the ECB should be ready to lift rates further, adding that inflation and growth metrics make him “uneasy”.
• For Gilts, the first PMQs under PM Burnham draws focus, for potential updates on the cost of living, fiscal space and other key themes.
• Australia sells AUD 900mln in 1.25% May 2032 bonds: b/c 4.21x, avg. yield 4.8949%.

Commodities

• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are flat/subdued following the prior day’s ~5% rise. WTI resides towards the bottom of a USD 89.92-92.29/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 86.13-90.97/bbl band), while Brent sits towards the lower end of a USD 94.53-97.04/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 90.70-95.45/bbl range). Aside from geopolitics (summarised below), data from the API also showed that US crude inventories reportedly drew down by 2.6mln bbls in the latest week (exp. -0.8mln), which would mark the first decline in five weeks.
• Dutch TTF remains elevated as Europe continues stockpiling for winter against the backdrop of supply issues from the Middle East, with the front-month contract towards the lower end of a EUR 73.20-75.33/MWh range (vs yesterday’s EUR 69.69-74.40/MWh band). European gas storage is said to be about 65% full, the lowest seasonal level in records dating to 2009.
• Metals feel no reprieve from the subdued intraday oil prices, which remain at elevated levels, whilst DXY also holds an upward bias. Gold has extended its decline as higher oil prices, bond yields and inflation concerns lifted Fed tightening bets. Spot gold is off lows as oil eases but remains under its 100 DMA (USD 4,361/oz) in a USD 4,283-4,336/oz range at the time of writing. Copper falls for a second day as higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions raised global growth concerns. 3M LME copper remains above 14k/t in a current USD 14,098.55-14,226.00/t range.
• In geopolitics, US-Iran tensions escalated sharply after the US launched a fresh wave of strikes on around 100 Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against US bases across various regions. On diplomacy this morning, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry remains positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table. More recently, Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz - although this prompted no reaction at the time of writing.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.6mln (exp. -0.8mln), Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -2.4mln), Distillate -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +0.2mln.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said 17mln bbls of oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
• Russia reportedly suspended grain export duties through 2026, RIA reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said at the G20 press conference that the days of settling for sub-par growth are over and he had hoped to announce a unanimous joint communique, although all but China reached a consensus. Furthermore, he said it is unsustainable to have a non-market economy export surge and that it is clear China was the dissenter at G20.
• G20 Chair statement was issued after China opposed joint communique language on trade policy, while the statement noted that the global economy remained resilient in the face of multiple shocks, including ongoing wars and conflicts, while the G20 is concerned by continued disruptions to energy trade and stress-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. It also stated that advancing growth is a key priority across G20 economies and working to address impediments to growth, including regulatory and administrative burdens, while G20 finance leaders urged countries to avoid unnecessary export restrictions to ensure supply chains function normally.

Central banks

• BoJ Governor Ueda said he discussed with central banks the need to communicate for appropriate monetary policy to achieve price stability as the global environment changes, while he said he held talks with Bessent, but did not comment on the details of their meeting and stated they held productive discussions on various topics. Ueda also refrained from commenting on day-to-day market moves or on markets pricing a strong chance of a September rate hike, although he stated that data released since the July meeting has been broadly in line with the projections in the quarterly report and that their basic monetary policy stance is largely unchanged from July. Furthermore, he said monetary conditions remain accommodative, so we would like to continue increasing rates, and stated that they have raised the policy rate five times so far, so need to carefully assess how the cumulative impact could affect the economy, but will also take upside price risks into account when deliberating policy.
• BoJ's Takata (hawkish dissenter) said he believes the BoJ needs to conduct rate hikes nimbly after gauging the degree of accommodation in domestic financial conditions, in addition to examining developments overseas. Takata also commented on the need to take a flexible approach to policy and that Middle East pressures could push inflation above target. Takata later stated that they need to consider a broad range of options, not just a 25bps hike each time while a different response is needed from the normal semi-annual pace of tightening.
• RBNZ raised the OCR by 25bps to 2.75%, as expected, with the MPC reaching a consensus on the decision, while the Committee judged that gradually removing monetary stimulus is appropriate to return inflation to the 2% target mid-point while supporting growth and employment. RBNZ said the decision reduces the risk that the OCR needs to increase by more later and that future policy decisions will depend on the Committee’s judgement of the balance of risks to medium-term inflation. In terms of the projections, the OCR is seen at 2.81% in December 2026 (prev. 2.84%), 3.12% in September 2027 (prev. 3.11%), 3.15% in December 2027 (prev. 3.15%) and at 3.28% in September 2029. RBNZ Minutes stated that the future OCR path is not pre-determined and indicators of medium-term inflation are consistent with inflation returning to the target.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said she expects economic growth to strengthen and broaden, while she noted that OCR projections are relatively in line with prior forecasts and that they are moving the OCR up towards neutral and it is still accommodative, but noted uncertainty regarding the neutral rate. Furthermore, she said they may need to take some time to assess the stance of policy and are not on a preset course, with the rate hike timing highly uncertain, although stated there will likely be a further OCR increase and will assess the impact of hikes already done.
• ECB's Makhlouf said the central bank must be prepared to lift interest rates further and that the combination of eurozone inflation above 3% and robust growth makes him uneasy, according to FT.
• ECB's Nagel said that markets see a more than 95% chance of a September rate hike and that markets understand rather well the ECB's way of reacting.

Geopolitics

• Russian President Putin said Russia has blocked a large enemy force in eastern Ukraine and keeps striking Ukrainian ports and energy facilities, while it is preparing massive strikes on Ukraine's energy targets. Putin also commented that Ukrainian President Zelensky's threat to close Russian airspace is state terrorism and that Moscow will respond, as well as noted that Ukrainian strikes caused real damage, but it is not critical. Furthermore, he said rumours that Russia is planning a new mobilisation to expand the army for Ukraine are utter nonsense.
• Russia attacked Ukraine's Odessa and damaged infrastructure, according to an official.
• Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman Medvedev said "Germany deserves a direct strike on military equipment production for Kyiv", RIA reported.

US Event calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Aug 28 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1%
• 8:15 am: United States Aug ADP Employment Change, est. 47k, prior 44k
• 10:00 am: United States Jul Factory Orders, est. 0.7%, prior -0.3%
• 10:00 am: United States Jul F Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.1%, prior 1.1%
• 10:00 am: United States Jul F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%

Central Bank Speakers 

• 2:00 pm: United States Fed Releases Beige Book

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Hot days and light mornings have suddenly morphed into chilly and dark ones as I write the first EMR back from holidays. We had a lovely time hiking, zip-wiring, white water-rafting, golfing and abundantly eating. I'm not sure if the final activity has influenced the fact that none of the new school clothes we ordered for them fit. Ahead of tomorrow's back to school this is a problem I've left my wife to resolve today! As a stone-cold boast, the best news for me this summer happened the day before we went on holiday. After 42 years of playing golf, I finally became a scratch golfer with a 2 under par round at Wentworth! This was the culmination of a 17-year journey where I moved out of London specifically to get back into golf which had proved tough living in the centre of London. It's only cost me 2 serious back operations, a couple of shoulder ones, various neck injuries, plenty of arm nerve damage, near permanent golfers' elbow, and not to mention the stress its caused on knees that have had 7 operations in 12 years. The only thing that has miraculously survived this major obsession/mid-life crisis is my marriage... just. Fingers crossed I can maintain my new +0.2 handicap and marriage for as long as possible.  

As meteorological autumn begun yesterday, a chill swept through markets as rising geopolitical risk, oil prices and bond yields created a risk off start to September. It's worth starting by running through some of the fresh multi-year bond yield highs seen around the world to start the month. We saw the 10yr bund yield (+1.9bps) hitting a post-2011 high of 3.34%, the 10yr OAT yield (+3.0bps) hitting a post-2008 high of 4.20%, and the 10yr gilt yield (+8.1bps) reaching a post-2008 high of 5.22%. Meanwhile in the US, the 10yr Treasury (+4.8bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.80%, and in Japan 10yr yields have crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years. With nominal and real yields rising, that meant equities took a decent hit as well, with the S&P 500 (-0.71%) and Stoxx 600 (-0.56%) both falling yesterday. Asia has continued the declines with the Nikkei (-2.95%) and the Kospi (-3.79%) leading losses.

The fresh catalyst for the sell-off over the last 24 hours was the jump in energy prices. That follows the latest strikes at the start of the week between the US and Iran, and it meant Brent crude (+4.60%) was up to $94.65/bbl by the close, its highest level since July, whilst European natural gas futures (+3.30%) hit a 3-year high of €72.22/MWh. This morning, oil prices are further +0.67% higher trading at $95.28/bbl as we go to print.

In terms of the latest on Iran, we heard shortly after yesterday’s European close that US was carrying out strikes on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz. The US had earlier warned of retaliation for Iranian missiles launched against a US military base in Jordan over the weekend and Trump posted that if “Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level”. Iran then responded with what it called a “decisive operation” against US bases in the region, with local media reporting more missile interceptions in Jordan. As a reminder, the renewed escalation has come as Iran has tried to target ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by going dark, with the US in turn seeking to degrade Iran’s ability to disrupt these flows.

The latest commodity moves came despite Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday saying during the G20 summit that the Strait of Hormuz will be “bypassed” in two years given that oil will be going on land pipelines, and not via Hormuz. Bessent also revealed more about his plans for economic sanctions, saying that the US knows which British Virgin accounts are tied to Iran, and that the administration will be looking at airline leasing companies in its efforts to economically isolate Iran. On Iran’s side, we heard from a foreign ministry spokesman yesterday, who said that current situation doesn’t allow for return to an MoU with the US, with the reason being that the US side had violated the agreement.  

Amidst the latest developments in the Middle East, as discussed at the top, bond markets extended their losses from Monday. So in the US, the 10yr (+4.8bps to 4.80%) Treasury yield reached its highest level since October 2023, while 2yr (+5.8bps to 4.40%) reached its highest level since July 2024, shortly before the Fed began its easing cycle. And investors also priced in an increasingly hawkish Fed profile for the year ahead, with the number of hikes priced by the June 2027 meeting up +5.1bps on the day to 64bps and the pricing of a September hike up to 69%. We traded as low as 27% when I started my holiday on August 17th.  

That hawkish newsflow was reinforced by Fed Governor Barr yesterday, who said the Fed should raise rates in September if “inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently.” His comments suggested he could support a hike unless inflation showed clearer signs of easing. So on top of Chair Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole, more centrist officials also appear to be moving towards a near-term hike.  

The bond selloff did temporarily ease earlier yesterday thanks to the latest batch of US data. That included a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing print, which fell to 54.6 in August (vs. 55.2 expected). And the components softened also, with new orders down to 53.7 (from 56.7), and employment down to 51.2 (from a post-2022 high of 52.8). Moreover, the JOLTS report of job openings also showed a weaker picture than previously thought, with job openings only at 7.271m in July (vs. 7.313m expected). In addition, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their role unexpectedly fell to 1.9% (vs. 2.0% expected).  

Back in Europe, worries of inflation and higher energy prices continued to dominate market moves. Gilts led the losses, but that was primarily a catch-up from the previous day’s bank holiday. So the 10yr gilt yield was up +8.1bps on the day to 5.22%. Meanwhile, the 30yr gilt yield (+7.6bps) hit a post-1998 high of 5.86% with lots of talk about the government's buffer against its own fiscal rules being slashed with the recent rise in yields. All ahead of the new leadership's first budget on October 28th.  

Staying with fixed-income related themes, we also saw the Euro Area-wide flash CPI print for August yesterday. That came in at 3.3% as expected, though we already had the releases from the biggest member states except for Italy (+3.2% vs +3.4% expected) beforehand. However, Euro Area core CPI was slightly on the downside at +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected). Interestingly, the ECB’s Simkus said in an interview that “this September hike is not going to be enough” based on the current data, suggesting that more of the ECB Governing Council members are open to keeping a hawkish signal following the hike that is fully priced for next week. Expectations of ECB hikes by December rose by +3.6bps to 49bps yesterday.  

The combination of higher yields and commodities also meant that equities took a hit yesterday, with stocks falling on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US that was led by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Exchange Index (-2.14%), followed by the Nasdaq (-1.03%) and Mag 7 (-0.72%). In Europe, markets closed before the news of new US strikes against Iran, so the Stoxx 600 (-0.56%), FTSE 100 (-0.32%) and CAC 40 (-0.39%) posted more moderate declines while the DAX (-1.10%) underperformed. Stoxx futures are down around half a percent as I type this morning.  

In Asia, as mentioned at the top, the Nikkei and Kospi are sharply lower with the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.04%) also trading notably weaker, with stronger-than-expected GDP data reinforcing expectations of another RBA rate hike later this year. Additionally, the CSI 300 (-1.25%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.82%) and the Hang Seng (-0.96%) are also lower as I type. S&P (-0.10%) and Nasdaq (-0.26%) futures are lower following last night's sell-off.  

On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its official cash rate by 25bps to 2.75%, marking its second consecutive rate increase as it continues its efforts to curb inflation. The move was largely anticipated amid growing concerns over renewed energy-price-driven inflation pressures. Updated RBNZ projections suggest the possibility of one additional 25bp rate hike before year-end. The central bank now expects inflation to ease to 3.9% in Q3, higher than its previous estimate of 3.3%, and forecasts inflation will return to the 2% midpoint of its target range in early 2028, later than the previously expected Q3 2027.
In Australia, the economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, surpassing expectations of 0.3% growth. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.1%, ahead of the consensus estimate of 1.8%. Following the data release, the Australian dollar was little changed against the US dollar, while the yield on policy-sensitive three-year government bond is currently +7.5bps to 4.79%, as investors increased bets that the RBA's tightening cycle could extend into next year.

Yesterday, Japan borrowing costs remained in the spotlight when Bessent stated that he preferred the BoJ to raise interest rates to help the yen, rather than see repeated inventions in the market. Additionally, the BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also indicated that the central bank would continue to consider rate increases and assess whether economic and price developments remained consistent with its outlook. 2yr JGBs are around +5bp higher this morning.

Finally, in terms of other Europe data, we did get final PMI figures, with the Euro Area manufacturing revised marginally lower (52.7 vs 52.8 prevs). A downward revision from the flash reading in France and somewhat weaker outcomes in Italy and Spain were mostly offset by an upward revision in Germany. The data further reinforces the view that recent improvement in Euro Area manufacturing remains primarily a German story, which registered the highest manufacturing output index in the region.

To the day ahead now, economic data include the US August ADP report, July factory orders, and Italy July PPI. Central Bank events include the BoC decision and Fed’s Beige Book. Broadcom and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are among the notable earnings events

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:18

Utah Judge Rules Charlie Kirk's Alleged Assassin To Stand Trial

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez and Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

The man accused of assassinating conservative commentator Charlie Kirk with a bullet to the neck will stand trial for aggravated murder, a Utah judge ruled on Sept. 1, almost a year after the fatal shooting rocked the nation.

Defendant Tyler James Robinson, 23, potentially faces the death penalty if convicted.

Judge Tony Graf Jr. of Provo's Fourth District Court bound Robinson over to trial, noting the probable cause standard had been met by the state on all seven counts.

Robinson pleaded not guilty to all charges.

The attorney for the Kirk family requested that the judge set a trial date at the next court appearance scheduled for Oct. 23.

Robinson faces six other charges alongside aggravated murder: two counts of obstructing justice, two counts of witness tampering, along with causing serious bodily harm by discharging a firearm and committing violence in the presence of a child.

The judge explained that a probable cause hearing allows the admission of reliable hearsay in Utah, without violations to due process as argued by the defense.

Robinson had the "motive, means, and opportunity" to kill Kirk, the prosecution argued during the Sept. 1 preliminary hearing.

DNA evidence, eyewitness testimony, and surveillance videos all link Robinson to the shooting scene, they said.

"There is a mountain of evidence here. The evidence is overwhelming," Deputy Utah County Attorney Ryan McBride said. "We know what Charlie Kirk stood for, and those ideas were repugnant to the defendant who was in a homosexual relationship with a man who is considering transitioning genders."

Kirk's alleged shooter imperiled other lives, prosecutors said. They argued this met the "aggravating" circumstance requirement for their pursuing a death-penalty-level charge against the defendant.

The circumstances included the presence of bystanders and children near Kirk as he was shot, the prosecution argued at the preliminary hearing.

The judge had noted before making his ruling that a man within two steps was able to render assistance to Kirk after he was shot and that at least two children were in the crowd.

Defense lawyers argued that the law requires proof beyond a mere "possibility" that someone else could have been killed.

There was only one shot, one bullet, and one victim, according to the defense, as they urged the judge to reject the prosecution's aggravating factor argument.

"There were no actual threats by the assailant to the third party," defense attorney Staci Visser said. "There was no evidence that would suggest that anyone else was threatened."

Before the hearing, Graf denied the defense motions, in part, to prohibit broadcasting and photography. Graf allowed one television station to broadcast the proceedings, one still photographer, subject to restrictions, and denied a request for a second still photographer.

The judge also allowed oral arguments and filings surrounding the Sept. 1 hearing to be publicly accessible.

Notably, he denied media access to the Discord chat involving conversations between Robinson and gamers surrounding the shooting, along with graphic video and photos of Kirk's death.

Before the hearing, lawyers representing Kirk's widow, Erika Kirk, had urged Graf to rule by Sept. 1, arguing against any "undue delay" while preserving Robinson's right to a fair trial.

By law, the judge's sole task is to decide whether there is probable cause - a required step before the case can head to trial, prosecutors noted.

That legal standard "requires 'evidence sufficient to support a reasonable belief that an offense has been committed and that the defendant committed it,'" prosecutors explained in a statement to the press, citing state law.

On Sept. 10, 2025 - almost a year ago - Kirk was fatally shot as he debated and answered questions from an audience of about 3,000 people at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah.

Kirk, a 31-year-old Christian father of two, was best known as a conservative speaker who, at 18, founded the political movement Turning Point USA for young voters. Prosecutors say evidence points to Robinson targeting Kirk over his "political expression."

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:05

Bessent Blames China For Derailing G20 Joint Communiqué

The Group of 20 finance meetings in Asheville, North Carolina, concluded on Tuesday after four days of discussions among finance ministers and central bank chiefs on global trade. The news late Tuesday was that China had derailed the group's efforts to issue a joint communiqué by refusing to endorse specific language targeting trade surpluses and export-dependent economic models.

"The country with the world's largest and unsustainable current account surplus, the People's Republic of China, was the dissenter," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters.

Bessent added, "Non-market-based economies pushing out a never-ending spring of cheap exports is not sustainable."

US and European officials told the Financial Times that Beijing objected to language intended to support the smooth functioning of global supply chains for energy, food, fertilizer and critical minerals.

Asked why China had opposed the language agreed upon by the group, a senior US official explained: "They are guilty. If we are worried about persistent distortions, they are the worst offenders. For the G20 to have something at 19-1 is unbelievable."

The dispute over the communiqué, an official joint statement agreed to by all G20 members after a meeting that typically summarizes areas of agreement, economic concerns, policy commitments or priorities, and areas requiring further cooperation, offers another glimpse into the widening economic fracture between Beijing and the West. China's staggering $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 was up 20% from the previous year, as its heavily subsidized exports flood the West, such as cheap EVs produced by BYD Motors.

What the breakdown suggests is that Beijing remains unwilling to rebalance an economic model built around industrial overcapacity, state-directed financing, weak household consumption and relentless exports. For the US and Europe, the concern is becoming a national security priority as industrial bases are hollowed out while governments attempt to rebuild domestic supply chains. 

"It came down to a few words. As we have seen with the Chinese, they try to slow things down and methodically change the nomenclature. We're not going for that," a senior US official told the FT. "They need to seriously reconsider this. If they can't even agree on words, they certainly won't be able to deliver on any action."

China also objected to any mention of "critical minerals," according to the officials.

Last year, Beijing introduced sweeping new global export controls on critical materials after Trump slapped tariffs on China. Two critical materials subject to export restrictions, tungsten and germanium, among others, have only led to severe tightening across global physical markets.

President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are set to meet on Sept. 24 in Washington, DC, as increasing hostilities have already emerged over Bessent's economic campaign against Iran and sanctions against Chinese entities. A Politico report last week detailed how US lawmakers are pressing Bessent to target large Chinese banks over Iran. Any such effort could come after the Trump-Xi meeting.

If Bessent targeted Chinese banks over their involvement with Tehran, we would expect Beijing to further tighten supplies of critical materials to the West, which is why we launched our decoupling theme, focusing on the top ex-China miner.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 07:20

FBI Now Says Past Prostitution And Theft May Not Disqualify Applicants

The FBI has reportedly loosened some of its automatic disqualifiers for prospective employees, allowing applicants with certain past conduct to be considered on a case-by-case basis, according to The Times Of India.

Under the revised standards, previously hiring a sex worker is no longer necessarily disqualifying. Applicants may still be eligible if it happened fewer than three times and the most recent incident was more than 10 years ago.

The change partly accounts for cases in which prostitution was legal where it occurred. However, soliciting prostitution while holding certain positions of trust, including jobs in law enforcement, education, health care, finance or law, can still result in automatic rejection.

The Times of India article says that past theft from an employer may also be overlooked if it occurred more than three years ago.

The FBI has also reportedly changed how it treats incidents involving bestiality or animal cruelty, allowing consideration when the conduct occurred before the applicant turned 18.

The bureau pushed back on suggestions that it is lowering its overall standards or opening the door to applicants with histories of criminal sexual behavior. An FBI spokesperson said the changes partly address applicants who suffered sexual abuse and whose experiences could complicate polygraph questions involving prostitution, bestiality or similar subjects through no fault of their own.

The FBI maintains that it continues to impose some of the federal government’s strictest suitability requirements.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 06:55

How To Engineer A Food Crisis

Via UNSHADOWED Substack,

The UK paid farmers to stop producing, and now blames a food crisis on the weather...

The UK seems to be in a world of hurt.

The media has been abuzz about the need to stock canned goods due to "food shortages," blaming global warming and hostile nations:

- Guardian, August 25, 2026

Remarkably, these were exactly the causes blamed in many tabletop exercises, including Food Chain Reaction Game 2015 - keynoted by none other than John Podesta - which, unsurprisingly, demanded "better global governance."

But the genesis of this "new" food crisis, being used to justify an acceleration of gene-edited crops and other unpopular measures advancing the technocratic takeover of food, lies not in Russian aggression or CO2, but in bad policies and economic warfare against farmers for generations.

The Food Crisis is Coming from Inside the House

Though several novels could be dedicated to the systematic strangulation of British agriculture, I will highlight only a select few to paint the rough picture:

Inheritance Tax

While the UK's general inheritance tax (IHT) sits at 40%, farms historically have been shielded from this by an "Agricultural Property Relief" policy. Family farms were handed down from one generation to the next, as has been done by humans since the dawn of time.

That ended on April 6, 2026.

IHT relief for agricultural property was capped this year to £2.5 million - which really doesn't go far considering the value of farmland and requisite equipment. Everything thereafter is subject to an effective IHT of 20% on farm land and assets that are already running on a very thin margin. This is how a cash-poor, asset-rich farm gets sold to pay the tax bill.

This is staggeringly bad policy, forcing experienced farmers off their land. It is also, in my view, wholly immoral - but we'll set that aside.

Unplugging the Life Support

The UK has cut off financial support from farms. Britain once paid farmers to grow food. The EU turned that into a land cheque called the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS). After Brexit, this subsidy to producers (now called 'delinked payments') was set to expire gradually over time, shifting instead to a "Sustainable Farming Incentive."

While the BPS began at £180-£230/ha, resulting in an average payment of £28,400/year, the delinked payments are this year (2026) capped at £600. Yet the SFI "replacing" it was shut down in 2025 when its budget was exhausted. Thousands of producers were left out to dry:

"We'd spent months putting the application together, we'd paid over £1,000 in agent's fees, we were just doing the final checks. Then the government shut the applications down, without any warning.

"For us it is tens of thousands of pounds of lost income. We now have a massive black hole in our budget for this year," added Mrs Godwin.

- BBC, March 27, 2025

These payments to farmers to ensure food security, which began post-WW2 and upon which farmers became dependent, have been unceremoniously eroded. This, alone, has been a disaster for British producers, pushing many into a cash flow crisis.

Shutting Down Farms

Now that the farms were unprofitable, the UK went further, actively incentivizing some producers to stop farming their land and shed their livestock. This was achieved through a new Land Use plan which even the Guardian was forced to summarize as "taking farms out of food production:"

- The Guardian, July 3, 2025

The January 2025 blueprint set specific goals: more than 10% of England's farmland should stop producing food by 2050, with grassland for livestock taking the largest cut. Farms were incentivized to transition to hosting agritourism activities like glamping (glamour camping) or, worse yet, solar farms.

Right about now you might be shaking your head, "They set a goal of stopping farms from growing food?" Yes. Yes, they did.

The Knepp Castle Estate is one such example. Their homepage tells the story quite clearly. Where once winter wheat, barley, oats, maize were grown, and 600 dairy cows and sheep were raised, now one finds yurts available for rental:

Food security explicitly took a backseat to the 30x30 plan, as adopted at COP15, and the idea that land should be released back to nature and "rewilded."

But ... Putin's Carbon Footprint!

Now, with yields indeed at historic lows, we see the headlines blaming Russia and climate change. We hear the National Farmers' Union president Tom Bradshaw saying it "does feel like there is going to be some shortages," and, in the same breath, that many producers may not have the cash to plant next year.

And yet, somehow, this entirely relevant backstory is lost, eclipsed by the administration's rush to adopt gene-edited food and drone-surveilled precision agriculture.

They did not need to ban traditional farming. They simply made the farm economically unviable, paid producers to do anything other than produce, and are now calling the missing food a "climate emergency."

While the British have been quite explicit about the process, fundamentally their actions have been unexceptional:

• In the Netherlands, nitrogen rules and buyout schemes have already taken hundreds of livestock farms out
• In Germany, too, farmers associations are warning producers may not have the cash to plant the next crop [full report here]

Don't let them call this climate change. This food crisis was engineered through policy, and is now being marketed as weather.

And that is all the more reason we should be growing more food and redoubling efforts at creating lasting food security for our families and communities.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 06:30

Mainstream Media Runs Spin Campaign As Deportations To Haiti Increase

When the Trump Administration ended Temporary Protection Status for migrants from 11 different countries, the mainstream media's attention immediately gravitated to only one:  Haiti.  

It was the numerous problems surrounding the NGO and Biden organized surge of 15,000+ Haitian migrants into Springfield, OH that captured the interest of the American public during the election campaign of 2024.  The mass migrant shift, representing nearly 30% of Springfield's total population, looked like a calculated foreign invasion, not the random immigration of desperate refugees. 

Evidence of extensive cash flows to migrants also raised eyebrows (along with local accusations of disappearing pets).  The entire situation was odd.  Everything about immigration under Joe Biden and the Democrats resembled a strategic operation rather than an act of benevolence to save needy foreigners. 

Haitian migrants, for some reason, remain one of the most aggressively contested groups for the political left when it comes to deportations.  And, now that protection status has been removed, the sob stories from progressive outlets are ample.  The problem is, most of these news stories rely on false claims or the omission of important details.  Their only goal is to inspire outrage. 

Recently the Miami Herald took on the subject of deportations to Haiti, painting a rather grim picture of children and innocent long time residents of the US being hijacked and dumped in a strange, dangerous and unfamiliar land. 

The Herald title reads:  "ICE sends second deportation flight to Haiti in a week. There are kids aboard"

It seems to suggest that little children are being thrown on planes and kicked to the curb in Haiti.  Of course, the paper admits later in the article that these children were accompanied by their families.  In other words, families were deported, not "children". 

This is a tactic commonly used by the leftist media over the past two years.  Stories of children being "kidnapped by ICE" have been circulated numerous times.  And, in every case it turned out that a parent or parents in the US illegally were apprehended and the children were taken to be reunited with them (or deported with them).  As it should be.

The Herald strategically maneuvers to manipulate public empathy:

"The youngest person aboard the ICE Air flight was a 3-year-old born in the U.S., according to information shared with the Miami Herald after the passenger arrived. The deported parents of the children condemned the move, telling the Herald that they found it “scandalous” that children born in the U.S. were being sent to Haiti. They also condemned the Haitian government for agreeing to take them back when the government is not prepared to accept returnees.

One of the children, a little boy, played with a toy as his parents reluctantly spoke..." 

Why is it supposed to be sad when foreigners overstaying their welcome in the US have to go home?  It's hard to say, but the establishment media acts as if the implications are apparent.  Kids staying with their parents is a good thing, right?  Anchor babies aside, these children don't belong in the US either. 

The story that got a rebuttal from ICE, however, was the deportation of a professional boxer living in Florida by the name of Jay Dabelus.  Dabelus was born in the Bahamas and his parents held Haitian nationality.  He lived in the US for 20 years, and 16 of those years were spent under TPS guidelines. 

Why in all that time did he never try to get a green card?  It's hard to say, but this is a common story among illegals living in the US for long periods - most of them got comfortable and just didn't bother.  The Herald describes Dabelus' situation as if he has no ties to Haiti:

“I don’t know anything about Haiti,” he said, speaking in English. “I was born in The Bahamas and had been living in the USA for twenty-something years.” 

“I don’t have any resources, family members or people to aid me, so I am just trying to see how I can go,” he said. “I got my high school diploma. Everything that I have and have received in life is from Florida, from the United States.” 

The story, which was also apparently picked up by the Associated Press, caught the attention of DHS.  ICE had some important details to add.  Dabelus has a Haitian citizenship and a Haitian passport.  In other words, the guy belongs in Haiti.  Who cares if he's a boxer?  

Yes. ICE removed Jay Dabelus to Haiti. What the Associated Press conveniently left out of this gotcha piece is that he has dual citizenship in Bahamas AND Haiti.

An immigration judge ordered Dabelus removed from the country years ago, but he had a HAITIAN passport and stayed in… pic.twitter.com/onxahTlTxB

— U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (@ICEgov) September 1, 2026

The mainstream media has been consistently running interference for illegal aliens for years, turning non-stories into supposed tragedies whenever a migrant is sent back home.  The headlines should simply read:  More migrants sent back to where they are supposed to be.  Instead, the public is flooded with tales of despair and injustice at the very notion that some people don't belong in the US.  

The narrative is growing tiresome.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 05:45

Sweden Signs Deal To Buy 4 Frigates From France, Deepen Defense Cooperation

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,

Sweden inked a deal with France for a quartet of Naval Group frigates during a ceremony in Stockholm on Aug. 31.

A Swedish flag in Stockholm on April 4, 2020. Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images

The event in the Swedish capital was attended by the leaders of both nations, French President Emmanuel Macron and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who also agreed to deepen their defense cooperation more broadly.

The ships ordered by the Swedes will be manufactured by French state-controlled defense manufacturer Naval Group at its main surface shipyard in Lorient, located on Brittany's Atlantic coast, Macron said in an Aug. 31 post on X.

"This is the excellence of our defense industry that is recognized," Macron said, adding that it was also emblematic of "two nations that share a common vision of European sovereignty and security."

"From the Baltic to the Atlantic, we are strengthening together our capacity to protect Europe and building a more sovereign, more powerful, more credible European defense."

Macron thanked Sweden for showing confidence in France.

Kristersson said in a post on the same platform that delivery of the frigates would start from 2030, adding that Stockholm and Paris had also signed "a framework agreement on a strategic platform for defense cooperation between our countries."

"The agreements strengthen the operational Swedish-French security policy cooperation, as well as in the field of defense materiel and industrial development," he said, adding that the move strengthened Swedish security.

He also welcomed closer cooperation in "the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic, in NATO's Forward Land Forces Finland, support for Ukraine, [and] countering Russian hybrid threats."

The ships will cost Sweden 4.3 billion euros ($4.9 billion) and will be of the Frégate de Défense et d'Intervention (Defense and Intervention Frigate) (FDI) type, with a length of 400 feet and a displacement of 4,500 metric tons.

Such vessels are already in use by both the French and Greek navies, according to a Swedish government statement announcing the deal. The statement said the vessels will be equipped with advanced air defense capabilities, including Franco-Italian Aster 30 surface-to-air missiles and the Anglo-Italian-developed CAMM-ER surface-to-air missiles, among other weaponry.

They will additionally be armed with several Swedish systems, including RBS15 long-range anti-ship missiles, Torped 47 anti-submarine torpedoes, Giraffe 1X radar, 57- and 40-mm guns, and Trackfire, a remotely operated, fully stabilized weapon station.

All the Swedish-made elements will be manufactured by either Saab or BAE Bofors, with the new ships' main focus on air defense and anti-submarine warfare.

Of the broader agreement, Macron said in a speech at the ceremony: "We are building a new strategic framework. We are giving ourselves the means to act together."

"We have joint exercises and deployments. We share capabilities, and we have Franco-Swedish industrial partnerships," he said, adding that this "demonstrates the strength and importance of this European pillar of defense and how Franco-Swedish cooperation is becoming, well, an essential element of this European pillar."

Sweden and France are member states of both NATO and the European Union.

The move comes at a time when defense spending is ramping up across the continent, driven by the ongoing war in Ukraine, NATO's recent expansion, and the United States' stated desire to pivot from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Sweden became the newest member of NATO in 2024, after ditching a long-maintained policy of nonalignment, keeping itself out of military alliances for some 200 years.

Stockholm changed its stance on the alliance following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as did the neighboring nation of Finland, which joined NATO in 2023.

On Aug. 28, Stockholm agreed to help surveil and protect Finnish territory until at least the end of the year, amid increased tensions in the Baltic region.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 05:00

Visualizing Canada's Biggest Export Partners

More than two-thirds of Canada's merchandise exports flow to the United States - its most significant trading partner, which makes the ongoing tit-for-tat tariff spat with the Trump administration a serious threat to their economy. 

In the first half of 2026, Canada sent $214.8 billion (C$298.2 billion) in goods to the U.S. - roughly 68% of its total merchandise exports. The UK came in second at 9.2%, which was heavily influenced by precious metals transactions. China came in third at 5%. 

Or, as visualized by Visual Capitalist's Sofie Gilbert: 

As Gilbert notes further; Japan, Mexico, and South Korea followed at 1.5%, 1.2%, and under 1%, respectively. Together, those five markets received $45.8 billion (C$63.6 billion) over six months, roughly 21 cents for every dollar shipped to the U.S.

The United Kingdom Number Needs a Caveat

The dataset places the United Kingdom second overall at 9.2%, or $28.9 billion (C$40.1 billion).

Statistics Canada notes that the UK figure includes significant precious metals transactions, a pattern confirmed by Global Affairs Canada’s State of Trade 2025 report, which identifies gold exports as the primary driver of Canada’s UK shipment growth.

This helps explain why the UK’s 9.2% share is so high relative to Canada’s broader trade relationship with the country. Excluding precious metals, the EU and China are larger destinations for Canadian exports.

Why Tariffs Matter Despite Covering Just 5% of Exports

Canada-U.S. trade negotiations broke down in August 2026, with 50% tariffs now in effect on a range of Canadian goods. Canada’s reliance on a single dominant export market limits how quickly affected trade can be redirected elsewhere.

The new duties cover roughly C$28 billion worth of Canadian exports, about 5% of what Canada ships to the U.S. annually, according to BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic. BMO estimates the tariffs could cut half a percentage point from Canada’s GDP growth.

That estimate highlights the broader risk of trade concentration. The EU and China each absorb only about 5% of Canadian exports, meaning even substantial growth in those markets would replace only a fraction of the volume currently sent south.

Canada is the largest export partner of 25 states, so the trade exposure runs both ways. However, with more than two-thirds of Canadian exports destined for the U.S., Canada has considerably more at stake in any disruption to cross-border trade.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 04:15

ChatGPT, Reddit, And Roblox To Face Increased Scrutiny In Europe

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The European Commission has designated Reddit and Roblox as very large online platforms and ChatGPT as a very large online search engine under its Digital Services Act (DSA), subjecting these online services to higher scrutiny in the region.

The Berlaymont building, the European Union Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Dec. 15, 2025. Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images

The DSA sets rules for online services used by EU citizens, including social media networks, app stores, digital marketplaces, and online travel platforms.

Platforms or search engines that have more than 45 million monthly users in the European Union are classified as Very Large Online Platforms or Very Large Online Search Engines.

ChatGPT, Reddit, and Roblox have "declared that they reach at least 45 million average monthly users in the EU and thus meet the threshold for designation," the commission said in an Aug. 31 statement.

Once this designation is applied, these services must fulfill certain obligations, including establishing a point of contact for European authorities, reporting criminal offenses, and ensuring transparency in advertising and content moderation decisions.

The services must also identify, analyze, and assess "systemic risks" in their offerings, including those related to public security, electoral processes, public health, the protection of minors, illegal content, mental and physical well-being, and fundamental rights such as freedom of expression and media freedom.

ChatGPT is an artificial intelligence system that engages with user prompts, including by searching the web, which qualifies it as an online search engine, the commission said. Since Reddit and Roblox - a gaming and creation platform - allow users to disseminate third-party content, the commission deemed them online platforms under the DSA.

Services designated as very large online platforms or very large online search engines are also required to share their data with the commission and national authorities to enable monitoring and assessment of these services for DSA compliance. The services must establish an internal compliance function to ensure identified risks in their offerings are mitigated.

The recent designations require ChatGPT, Reddit, and Roblox to comply with additional DSA obligations by January 2027.

The Epoch Times reached out to Reddit, Roblox, and OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

The commission's very-large-online-platform designation was previously challenged by Amazon in 2023. However, in a November 2025 decision, the Court of Justice of the EU's General Court declined to annul the designation.

At the time, Amazon said it was disappointed in the ruling.

"The Very Large Online Platform status was designed to address systemic risks posed by very large companies with advertising as their primary revenue and that distribute speech and information," the company said in a statement.

"The Amazon Store, as an online marketplace, does not pose any such systemic risks; it only sells goods, and it doesn't disseminate or amplify information, views or opinions."

Amazon Store continues to be listed as a very large online platform by the European Commission.

In total, the EU has now designated 28 services as very large search engines and online platforms under DSA, the commission said in its recent statement. This includes Apple's App Store, AliExpress, TikTok, WhatsApp, X, Wikipedia, and Facebook.

Henna Virkkunen, executive vice-president for tech sovereignty, security, and democracy at the European Commission, said that the latest designations will hold ChatGPT, Reddit, and Roblox to a "higher standard of scrutiny and accountability in the European Union, in line with their large impact on our citizens and society."

"We continue to watch the digital landscape closely and will not hesitate to designate any platform that meets the threshold for enhanced supervision under the Digital Services Act," Virkkunen said.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has taken a strong stance against the EU's rules for American tech companies.

In a July 24 Truth Social post, Trump announced a formal investigation into the EU's trade practices, threatening to impose new tariffs after the bloc levied billions of dollars in fines on U.S. businesses.

The comments came after the European Commission fined Google 890 million euros (approx. $1 billion) for violating the Digital Markets Act, a complementary regulation to the DSA that targets online platforms.

Trump said that fines on Google and other U.S. tech companies will be reversed.

"The European Union will pay a very big price for this illegal and highly unethical conduct, which I have consistently warned them about," Trump said.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 03:30