Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Strong Demand; Crypto Market Tops $4 Trillion As Gen-A Shuns Gold

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw strong demand this week, recording more than $1.7 billion in inflows before the trading week closes on Friday. 

SoSoValue data showed that the ETFs had a strong week, with Wednesday having nearly $800 million in inflows. As of Thursday, the ETF tracker showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs already had $1.7 billion in net inflows this week.

As Ezra Reguerra reports via CoinTelegraph.com, the strong performance marks the ETFs’ biggest weekly total in nearly two months, highlighting renewed confidence in the asset class. 

The strong ETF inflows came as Bitcoin climbed back to $115,000, up 4.5% from its $110,000 price last Friday. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF daily net inflow data. Source: SoSoValue

Spot Ether ETFs recover from nearly $800 million in outflows

Spot Ether ETFs also had a strong week, recording over $230 million in net inflows as of Thursday. This is a sharp asset class recovery after nearly $800 million in outflows last week. 

While ETH ETFs recover, corporate treasury holder BitMine continued to stack up Ether  purchases this week. On Monday, BitMine purchased 202,500 ETH, which sent its holdings to the 2 million ETH milestone. The company made a follow-up purchase on Wednesday, buying $200 million in ETH from Bitgo. 

Data from the Strategic ETH Reserve website shows that BitMine currently holds over 2 million ETH, worth $9.3 billion at the time of writing. 

The ETH data tracker also shows that in total, ETH reserve companies hold nearly 5 million ETH, worth about $22.1 billion.

Meanwhile, ETF issuers hold 6.6 million ETH, worth nearly $30 billion, to back the assets. This means that almost 12 million ETH, nearly 10% of the circulating supply are held by institutions. 

CZ compares the crypto market cap to Nvidia 

The broader crypto market also crossed $4.1 trillion again this week, a level previously reached in July and August. 

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao highlighted the milestone on X, comparing the combined value of the entire crypto space to Nvidia, which stands at roughly $4.3 trillion, according to 8marketcap. 

“The combined market cap of all future money is less than one chip company’s market cap. You do the math,” Zhao wrote. 

Indeed, as Darius Moukhtarzadeh, Research Strategist at 21Shares, writes, Gen Alpha will grow up with Bitcoin as a cultural and financial native, making it their default store of value over traditional gold investments.

Gold has long been considered the ultimate store of value — shiny, scarce and time-tested. 

For Gen Alpha, however, the first generation truly born into a digital world, that shine is already starting to fade. 

Instead, they’ll grow up with a very different baseline for value, how it moves and where it lives. In reality, Bitcoin won’t just be an investment option; it will be a default for this generation.

Born into a digital world

Unlike previous generations, Gen Alpha won’t discover Bitcoin as something new or revolutionary. They’ll inherit a world where Bitcoin has always existed, present in financial apps, discussed in classrooms and embedded in digital platforms. To them, it won’t feel risky or radical. It will feel normal.

From day one, their experience of value will be digital-first. Physical cash will be rare, as most payments will be cashless. They’ll learn about scarcity through gaming tokens and in-app economies, not gold coins in a drawer. In that context, Bitcoin won’t seem exotic; it will be part of everyday life. On the contrary, gold will be perceived as exotic by Gen Alpha as a yellow stone with historic value. 

Bitcoin is easier to access than gold ever was

Gold is hard. You need to buy it from a trusted dealer and store it physically to have complete control. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a few taps away. With child-friendly fintech apps and educational tools already present, Gen Alpha could be exposed to Bitcoin before they even understand how a savings account works. 

Access will be seamless through crypto-enabled games, loyalty rewards or allowance apps. The barriers that once made Bitcoin feel technical or inaccessible are rapidly disappearing.

Trust will be earned, not assumed

Where older generations gradually lost faith in institutions, Gen Alpha started from a place of deep skepticism. They’re growing up in an era of economic uncertainty, institutional distrust and algorithmic information. For them, “trust” won’t be given to governments or banks by default; it will have to be earned through transparency.

Bitcoin, by design, fits that worldview. It’s open-source, auditable and decentralized. It doesn’t ask for trust, it allows verification. In a world where the mantra is “don’t trust, verify,” Gen Alpha will naturally gravitate toward systems that don’t require faith in intermediaries.

Bitcoin will be culturally native

Bitcoin is no longer just an asset; it’s part of pop culture. For Gen Alpha, that cultural familiarity will only deepen. They’ll encounter Bitcoin through finance apps, influencers, creators, games and even school programs.

Just like social media was second nature to Gen Z, digital assets will be embedded in Gen Alpha’s online identity. That constant exposure through memes, brands, and mainstream platforms will make Bitcoin feel more culturally relevant than something like gold, which lacks that digital presence.

Bitcoin is programmable

Gold is physical, heavy, and inert. It sits in vaults. It’s hard to move and harder to use. Bitcoin is the opposite. It’s programmable, borderless, divisible and integrated into the broader world of decentralized finance.

As Gen Alpha grows up expecting digital systems to be flexible and responsive, Bitcoin’s dynamic nature will be a feature, not a bonus. It simply fits the world they’ll build and live in.

A generation that won’t need convincing

Every generation reshapes the financial system in its image. Millennials flirted with Bitcoin. Gen Z normalized it. Gen Alpha won’t have to be convinced.

They won’t see Bitcoin as an alternative to the old system. They’ll see it as part of the system. Not because of ideology, but because of familiarity, usability and cultural relevance. 

Gold had its moment. Bitcoin is just getting started. Gen Alpha will grow up with it in their wallets, not in a vault.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 14:25

Qatar Pressures Arab Allies To Close Embassies In Israel: 'The Gloves Are Off'

Qatar is leaning on Arab countries who have embassies in Israel to close them, as diplomatic retaliation for this week's brazen Israeli airstrikes on Doha, which killed several Hamas leaders - including Khalil al-Hayya - and a Qatari security official.

Specifically, the United Arab Emirates is being pressured to shutter its embassy in Tel Aviv. The UAE was an initial signer of the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords. It officially inaugurated its embassy in July of 2021 as part of the historic normalization deal.

Via Associated Press

Washington has been hoping to expand the accords to other Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, but with the Gaza war raging, this seems definitely off and nowhere on the horizon.

"The gloves are off," a Gulf diplomat speaking with Haaretz said. The UAE has vehemently condemned the attack on Qatar, and  summoned the Israeli deputy ambassador, David Ohad Horsandi, to complain of "outrageous attack" which violated Qatar's sovereignty. 

Haaretz has suggested that Qatar might even alter its security ties with the United States. "Qatar's prime minister told the White House his country would now re-evaluate its security partnership with Washington," Haaretz reported.

"From Doha's perspective, accusing Qatar of hosting Hamas leaders is seen as a knife in the back and could affect continued cooperation with Mossad as well as other interactions between the emirate and Israel," Haaretz added.

The oil and gas rich GCC countries had throughout the decade-plus long Syria proxy war cooperated closely with Israeli intelligence, past reports have said.

But the Gaza crisis has strained all of these past ties, which mostly focused on countering Iranian and Shia influence across the Middle East, and Assad became prime target number one for regime change - given his deep cooperation with the Iranians.

Yet even the Saudis have by and large mended relations with Iran. While the royal family pays lip service to defending Palestinians, it is the common populations of Gulf states which tend to be more hardline in the pro-Palestinian cause.

HE the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs @MBA_AlThani_, stated in an interview with CNN: “We categorically reject such threats coming from an individual like Netanyahu—someone who speaks of bringing others to justice, while he himself is the one who should be brought… pic.twitter.com/xLvrjSlwcF

— Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Qatar (@MofaQatar_EN) September 11, 2025

A prime reason the Saudis have yet to normalize with Israel is precisely on fears it could enrage the society at large as well as the powerful clerical establishment that oversees the kingdom's Sharia courts and other institutions. This could destabilize the kingdom, especially if the monarchy rushes to embrace Israel under Netanyahu.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 14:05

Turkey In Netanyahu's Crosshairs For Harboring Hamas, After Qatar Strike

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defended a recent airstrike on what Israel says was a Hamas headquarters in Doha, comparing the October 7 attacks to the September 11 terror attacks in the United States. The speech was given in the middle of this week, just before the 24th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, warning that Hamas leaders will be hunted down wherever they are located, and putting countries like Qatar and even Turkey on notice.

Turkey has long expressed support to Hamas leadership. Though Netanyahu did not directly name Turkey, observers interpreted his remarks as a veiled threat to Ankara, which has long hosted senior Hamas officials.

Via AFP

Calling October 7 "our 9/11," Netanyahu warned that any country offering safe haven to "Islamist terrorists" could become targets of Israeli intelligence operations. He urged governments to expel or prosecute such individuals, or potentially face the wrath of unilateral Israeli action.

He laid out: "Well, yesterday, we acted in the same manner. We pursued the masterminds of terror who perpetrated the massacre of October 7. And we did this. In Qatar, which provides a safe haven, harbors terrorists, funds Hamas, gives its terrorist leaders luxurious villas, and provides them with everything."

Netanyahu continued: "We did exactly what America did when it pursued Al-Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan, and after they went and killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan."

He added: "Now, various countries around the world condemn Israel. They should be ashamed of themselves. What did they do after America eliminated Osama bin Laden? Did they say: What a terrible thing happened in Afghanistan or Pakistan? No, they applauded. They should commend Israel for adhering to the same principles and applying them."

The prime minister invoked a UN Security Council resolution that called on governments to deny safe haven to terrorists, arguing that Israel is acting on the same principles. 

In recent weeks, Netanyahu stunned the region by recognizing the Armenian genocide of 1915 in an interview in an unprecedented first for the Israeli government.

The Erdogan government seems this as a calculated provocation aimed at embarrassing Turkey, as Turks have long considered this issue a red line. Within Turkey, individuals can be thrown in jail if they publicly advocate for Armenian genocide recognition, especially journalists.

NEW: Israel considered attacking Hamas' top leadership in Turkey, Egyptians told the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, but changed mind because of Ankara’s Nato membership and political and economic costs.

Netanyahu thought Trump could handle Qatar consequences

— Kann

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) September 11, 2025

Interestingly, just on Thursday Israel's Haaretz newspaper wrote that Turkey Could Be Next in Israel's Cross-hairs After Qatar in a headline.

"The Shin Bet security service announced last week that it thwarted a Turkey-based Hamas cell's plot to assassinate National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Ankara quickly denied involvement," the newspaper said. "But the revelation raised an explosive question: Could Turkey have a hand in helping Hamas assassinate an Israeli minister?"

Any Israeli operation on Turkish soil akin to the Qatari one would be viewed by Ankara as an act of war. Turkey has vigorously denounced Israel for its Doha strike, after long condemning Israel for its actions in Gaza.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 12:40

Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The latest employment data strongly warned of a potential corporate earnings slowdown ahead. This is the first time we have warned about the employment data and its impact on corporate earnings. In May, we penned “Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing.” wherein we stated:

“Given the importance of consumption in the economy and that employment (production) must come first in the cycle, attention to employment data, particularly full-time employment, is crucial to determining economic risk. The risk of a recession remains very low; however, that can change if something causes consumption to contract quickly. Aside from an unexpected, exogenous impact, investors should expect economic growth to continue to slowly weaken to a longer-term trend slightly less than 2% annually. Unfortunately, while not recessionary, that growth rate will make it hard for corporate profitability to remain at record levels.”

The August 2025 employment report further confirmed the deceleration in job growth. Nonfarm payrolls added just 22,000 positions. Economists had expected over 75,000. June’s numbers were revised downward to a net loss of 13,000 jobs, the first monthly decline since 2020. July gained only a minor upward revision. However, what is most important is the “trend” of the data rather than just a one-month data point. As shown, the 3-month average of employment is deteriorating sharply, which has only occurred previously just before the onset of a recession.

While the labor force participation rate was 62.3 percent, still well below pre-COVID levels, the percentage of total full-time employees continues to drop sharply. That data point is essential because full-time employment is required to sustain economic growth. With that level well below pre-COVID levels, it is unsurprising that economic growth rates are slowing.

It isn’t just slower economic growth that the latest employment report suggests. Yes, growth is slowing because jobs are shrinking, and as a consequence, households are spending less. As we showed in a recent #BullBearReport, economic growth, inflation, and personal consumption are trending lower, given that employment, particularly full-time employment, supports economic supply and demand.

This data also confirms why the Fed is already behind the curve in cutting interest rates.

Why the Fed Is Likely Behind the Curve

Despite the slowdown, the Federal Reserve remains hesitant. Chair Powell noted softening labor conditions at Jackson Hole and suggested the door is open to rate cuts. But no concrete shift in policy has occurred. The Fed insists on being data-dependent while ignoring the most immediate data: labor markets are deteriorating. Inflation is not, and has not been a threat, and the two-year Treasury yield, a close approximation of what the Fed funds rate should be, is already more than 80-bps lower than the Fed’s current policy rate.

The latest Beige Book also revealed soft hiring trends and growing caution among employers, with businesses pulling job postings and limiting expansion. That’s not a labor supply issue; it’s a demand issue. The Fed’s ongoing focus on lagging inflation data means that policies remain too tight and are now well “behind the curve.”

Markets aren’t waiting. Fed futures now imply near certainty of a September rate cut, with some traders pricing in 50 basis points. While many remain concerned about the risk of inflation, bond yields are already warning that the economic data is more disinflationary than not. As we have discussed before, despite all the “fear mongers” warning of surging interest rates, the reality is that interest rates on the long-end will track the economy. As we discussed in Grant: Rates Are Going Much Higher?”

“…let’s create a composite index of wages (which provides consumer purchasing power, aka demand), economic growth (the result of production and consumption), and inflation (the byproduct of increased demand from rising economic activity). We then compare that composite index to interest rates. Unsurprisingly, there is a high correlation between economic activity, inflation, and interest rates as rates respond to the drivers of inflation.”

We further discussed that relationship in “Tudor Jones: I Won’t Own Bonds.”

“The previous surge in inflation, and ultimately interest rates, was not a function of organic economic growth. It was a stimulus-driven surge in the supply/demand equation following the pandemic-driven shutdown. As those monetary and fiscal inflows reverse, that support will fade. In the future, we must understand the factors that drive rates over time: economic growth, wages, and inflation.”

With the economy and its primary driver, employment, slowing, the Fed’s delay in cutting rates increases the risk of a more substantial economic downturn. By maintaining rates at an elevated level, the negative impact on consumption (demand) is increasing. The Fed’s tightening has already filtered into credit, housing, and business spending. The labor market is reacting, and further policy lags will likely make the next easing cycle less effective.

The risk is that the central bank may be easing into a downturn it failed to prevent.

Implications for Corporate Earnings and Profit Margins

For investors, the most significant consequence is a slowdown in corporate earnings. A corporate earnings slowdown is already underway. Revenue growth is faltering, and companies, particularly in the retail and fast dining sectors, are seeing less pricing power as consumer demand slips. Eventually, those forces will compress profit margins. As we noted with respect to Q2 earnings:

“While technology and AI-driven firms have recently become bright spots, their strength cannot offset broader corporate margin pressures. In Q2, S&P 500 earnings grew 6.4%, with 80 percent of companies beating estimates. But this masks a weakening breadth of growth, where earnings beats are concentrated in essentially just two sectors. There would have been no earnings growth without Megacap Technology and major Wall Street banks.”

While many firms relied on price hikes, labor efficiency, and cost-cutting to drive earnings growth this year, that playbook is limited in scope and becoming less effective. While Tech and AI-linked companies like Broadcom have offered bright spots, the rest of the market is under pressure. Discretionary sectors, cyclical industrials, and small-cap firms are more exposed to demand shocks and slowing economic growth. While investors are currently ignoring the linkages between economic demand and corporate earnings, as margins erode, the impact on earnings will become more significant.

Currently, analyst estimates still assume robust earnings growth into 2026. However, that will change in the months ahead. As those earnings estimates are revised lower, the risk to the market, and currently very optimistic investors, is the question of valuations. As the corporate earnings slowdown accelerates, forward guidance will get cut, and paying significantly high multiples for earnings will be questioned. If companies revise down expectations, delay investments, and increase layoffs to protect bottom lines, the risk to markets will increase significantly.

Navigating The Risks

The evidence points to a slowing US economy. Growth is weakening, inflation remains elevated, corporate margins face pressure, and interest rate cuts are likely. These conditions require a shift in investment strategy. Investors must adapt to preserve capital, generate income, and manage risk. Positioning should emphasize resilience, quality, and income stability. The goal is to reduce exposure to volatile sectors and concentrate on assets that perform well during economic slowdowns.

Here are key actions investors should consider:

• Reduce exposure to cyclical stocks: Cut back on discretionary sectors like retail, travel, and consumer electronics that rely heavily on strong economic growth.

• Increase allocation to defensive sectors: Focus on consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities. These sectors provide stable earnings even in weak environments.

• Favor companies with strong pricing power: These firms can better maintain margins despite rising input costs.

• Prioritize strong balance sheets: Low debt and high cash reserves reduce financial stress and support consistent returns.

• Add high-quality dividend payers: Look for companies with a track record of stable or growing dividends. These provide income support as capital gains slow.

• Increase fixed income exposure: Short-duration bonds and high-grade corporates may benefit from falling interest rates.

• Consider yield curve positioning: A steeper yield curve from rate cuts may create an opportunity in intermediate bonds.

• Avoid speculative growth stocks. These firms rely on future earnings and cheap financing, both of which will be under pressure in a slowing economy.

A decelerating US economy changes the return profile across asset classes. Adjusting now to focus on quality, cash flow, and defensive positioning can improve downside protection and set the stage for more stable portfolio returns.

While there are no guarantees, the current gap between what Wall Street expects and what the economy can deliver is very different. Could the economy catch up to meet Wall Street’s expectations? Sure. It just usually doesn’t happen that way.

Most importantly, the Fed is late once again, and history suggests the impact on stocks will be negative.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 12:20

Vax Stocks Tumble As Trump Admin To Link COVID Shots To Child Deaths

Shares in vaccine stocks were sharply lower on Friday after a report that the Trump administration is set to announce the deaths of 25 children linked to COVID-19 vaccines, according to the Washington Post.

The findings are based on VAERS, a federal database that tracks vaccine injuries operated by the CDC. 

Trump health officials plan to include the pediatric deaths claim in a presentation next week to an influential panel of advisers to the CDC that is considering new coronavirus vaccine recommendations, which affect access to the shots and whether they’re free.

As a result shares in Pfizer, BionNTech, and Moderna spiked sharply lower in Friday trade:

Developing...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 11:56

Iron Ore Price Volatility Now At 2008 Low 

Singapore iron ore futures closed the week near six-month highs, supported by signs of revived Chinese demand driving peak-season restocking, alongside other factors such as steel mills curbing supply and expectations for a 25-bps interest rate cut in the U.S. next week. 

Earlier in the week, UBS analyst Catherine Gordon told clients, "I would flag that the team has seen strong demand for the UBS Gold Miners Basket {UBXXGOLD} amid the frenzy. Iron Ore remains the least discussed with investors on the sidelines."

Has the iron ore market been long lost and forgotten by Wall Street desks, with prices stuck around $100 a ton for more than a year?

Possibly. UBS analyst Myles Allsop noted that iron ore volatility has collapsed to its lowest level in 15 years. With no trend to follow and prices compressed around the $100 handle, iron ore has become one of the least discussed commodities among UBS clients - well, for now.

Allsop provided more color about this collapse in volatility:

Iron ore prices: why is volatility at the lowest level in >15yrs?

The volatility in the iron ore price is at its lowest level since the industry moved to spot pricing in 2008/09, with prices trading in a tight range since mid-2024 (average ~$100/t with a low of $90/t & a high of $110/t). In our opinion, one of the key drivers of this stability is a change in buying behaviour in China, supported by widespread uncertainty & balanced market fundamentals. The Chinese govt established China Minerals Resources Group (CMRG) in Jul-22 with an aim to stabilise the iron ore market through centralised demand, price negotiations, and strategic inventory mgmt. CMRG now represents >50% of China's steelmakers in negotiations with global suppliers, fundamentally changing the negotiating leverage from miners to Chinese steel mills and altering the iron ore market dynamics; it has also dampened speculative activity in the market by building substantial strategic inventory holdings. Looking forward, we expect lower price volatility to become the new normal, which helps steelmakers through improved cost forecasting but reduces trading opportunities for financial participants; we expect supply-demand fundamentals to continue to drive broader market price trends though the concentrated buying power of CMRG is likely to compress margins.

Iron ore prices holding up with supply/ demand balanced & inventories stable

Iron ore prices have shuffled up to ~$105/t last week with activity rebounding after the military parade and on improving sentiment (due to the China Work Plan & Fed rate cut expectations). On the key signals we note: 1) Iron ore inventories at ports (Fig24) and at mills (Fig26) in China are broadly stable w/w; 2) Iron ore shipments from traditional markets (Fig2) continue to recover with Brazil +3% YTD (> Access Dataset); 3) Steel production in China accelerated in early-Aug in the CISA data (Fig10), though MySteel utilisation rate data remains broadly flat (Fig14); 4) Steel exports from China remain strong at ~106Mtpa in Aug despite increasing trade restrictions (Fig19) - Baosteel expects China steel exports to remain >100Mt in 2025, albeit softer in 4Q; 5) Positioning on the Dalian has turned incrementally more negative and is now at -2Mt of net contracts (Fig37). We have Neutral ratings on Vale, RIO & BHP, and Sell on FMG & KIO; we est. spot 2026 FCF yield of BHP at 4%, RIO at 8%, Vale at 15% (interactive model).

Separately, Goldman analyst James McGeoch added more color about why prices of the steelmaking ingredient have soared in recent weeks to six-month highs:

"Your coming into the pre-golden week restock (Golden week October 1), the onshore feedback is positive, August imports at 105mt is impressive. The range $100-105 is still where the traders see it, consumer buying at $100, and producer hedging at $105. Of note the story Friday on the CMRG (China group) selling to calm prices down, they are not going away... "

Chart 

The longer the compression, the larger the eventual move in iron ore markets. The big question is what could trigger a breakout to the upside: China stimulus, U.S. rate cuts, or Beijing pressuring mills to curb production?

Full chart pack available exclusively for ZeroHedge Pro Subs here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 11:40

Trump Downplays Drone Incursion Into Poland As Likely 'Mistake', Angering NATO Allies

In a bit of a surprise twist given all the hype and dangerous escalation this week which saw Poland and NATO scramble jets, President Donald Trump has downplayed Poland's accusation that Russian drones intentionally invated its airspace this week.

Trump in addressing the dangerous incident to reporters Thursday suggested it "could have been a mistake". Prime Minister Donald Tusk, citing the NATO eastern flank country's military said that in the early hours of Wednesday, three Russian drones were shot down - among a total of 19 which crossed into Polish airspace.

Crashed drone remnants in Poland, via AP

When asked about these claims, Trump responded that it "could have been a mistake… But regardless, I’m not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation. But hopefully it’s going to come to an end."

Warsaw and NATO officials condemned the "act of aggression" which they along with Ukrainian officials asserted was an intentional provocation. Tusk said it was an "unprecedented" incursion into the sovereign territory of a NATO member.

Despite Trump now surprising allies by downplaying it, Warsaw and Kiev are getting the intended effect, given BBC is reporting the additional build-up of allied defenses in Eastern Europe:

In response to the drone incursion, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic said they would send defenses to Poland, while Lithuania would receive a German brigade and greater warning of Russian attacks on Ukraine that could cross over.

Germany also said it would "intensify its engagement along Nato's eastern border" and extend and expand air policing over Poland.

Later France's Emmanuel Macron announced the country would send three Rafale fighter jets to help protect Poland's airspace. "We will not yield to Russia's growing intimidation," Macron said.

Trump continued downplaying the incident in a Friday morning FOX appearance, saying of the drones "they were actually knocked down and they fell"...

Fox: What are you gonna do about Putin? Because we just saw these drones in Poland.

Trump: I'm not gonna defend anybody but they were actually knocked down and they fell. But you should not be close to Poland anyway.pic.twitter.com/jJe7Cbc0p7

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 12, 2025

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has pointed out that the drones flew from Ukraine into Poland, and there have been prior such episodes - suggesting mistaken identity or else a Ukrainian false flag. Russia has essentially denying it had anything to do with the drones - but Poland says it has recovered many from the ground - one of which crashed on a house. They appear to have been what are widely described as 'decoy' drones and not attack or suicide UAVs.

Poland is not happy with Trump's ambiguous response, with officials rejecting his explanation:

Poland's most senior officials on Friday dismissed President Trump's suggestion that a major Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace could have been a mistake by Vladimir Putin's military.

"We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it," Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a message posted on social media. Polish authorities said they had recovered parts of 17 Russian-made drones, which fell without causing any injuries or major damage in the east of the country on Wednesday.

Trump appears to favour de-escalation following Russian drones allegedly entering Poland's airspace pic.twitter.com/LOafBQx9YE

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) September 12, 2025

Russia's Defense Ministry said Wednesday that the range of its UAVs typically deployed do not exceed 700 km - suggesting that such a breach was not possible based on the distance. The MoD said it is open to holding direct consultations with the Polish government to resolve the matter. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 11:00

US Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since May As Inflation Expectations Calc Completely Broken

US consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row in the just released preliminary September data, down from 58.2 to 55.4, far below the median estimates of 58.0 (in fact it was below all estimates), with both Current Conditions (61.0, Last 61.7) and Expectations (51.8, Last 55.9) declining.

“Consumers’ expected probability of personal job loss grew sharply this year and ticked up in September as well,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement, “suggesting that consumers are indeed concerned that they may be personally affected by any negative developments in labor markets.”

“Moreover, consumers also feel squeezed by the persistence of high prices,” she added.

Curiously Republicans and Independents saw their optimism (i.e. expectations) slide fractionally - while Democrats oddly rose - although while it narrowed modestly, the spread between Dems and Reps remains near a record high.

After plunging back to reality for two months, inflation expectations resumed their ascent especially on the longer-end horizon: year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.8% after jumping in July from 4.5%, while long-run (5-10) inflation unexpectedly jumped from 3.5% in August to 3.9%, higher than the expected decline to 3.4% and the highest since June.

What is bizarre here, is that once again the Marxist UMich professors grabbed at straws to paint as bleak a picture as possible, and while both Republican and Independent 5Yr inflation expectations dropped substantially, and Democrats rose by the smallest possible 0.1%, the average somehow magically surged by 0.4% to 3.9%!!

It gets better... and by better we mean dumber: 1 Year inflation expectations dropped across every single party: Dems down 0.5%; Republicans down 0.1%, Independent down 0.4%, and yet the average was... unchanged!

So how did this inflation expectation rise or stay flat? Non-voters? Illegals?

Or maybe it's time to finally start ignoring this indicator or at least call it TDS: Trump Derangement Sentiment. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 10:23

'Game-Changer' - BlackRock Weighs ETF Tokenization As JPMorgan Flags Industry Shift

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CoinTelegraph.com,

BlackRock is reportedly exploring tokenized ETFs after Bitcoin fund success, as Wall Street giants tout tokenization as a game-changer for finance...

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is reportedly exploring ways to tokenize exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the blockchain, following the strong performance of its spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Citing sources familiar with the discussions, Bloomberg reported Thursday that the company is considering tokenizing funds with exposure to real-world assets (RWA). Any such move, however, would need to navigate regulatory hurdles.

ETFs have become one of the most popular investment vehicles — so widespread, in fact, that they now outnumber publicly listed stocks, according to Morningstar.

Tokenizing ETFs could potentially allow them to trade beyond standard market hours and be used as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

BlackRock’s interest in tokenization is not new. It already manages the world’s largest tokenized money market fund, the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), which holds $2.2 billion in assets across Ethereum, Avalanche, Aptos, Polygon and other blockchains.

JPMorgan has called tokenization a “significant leap” for the $7 trillion money market fund industry, pointing to the initiative launched by Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon, which BlackRock will join at launch.

Under the initiative, BNY clients will gain access to money market funds with share ownership registered directly on Goldman Sachs’ private blockchain.

BUIDL market cap by network. Source: RWA.xyz

Amid blockchain push, TradFi moves to lock in dominance with money market funds

The rise of tokenized money market funds isn’t happening in a vacuum but alongside mounting pressures on traditional finance — particularly from the rapid adoption of stablecoins and the shift of liquidity into blockchain-based markets.

Cointelegraph reported in May that the US banking lobby was especially wary of yield-bearing stablecoins amid concerns that they could disrupt traditional banking models. Notably, such tokens were excluded from the US GENIUS Act, the first comprehensive legislation on stablecoins.

Source: ayyyeandy

In June, JPMorgan strategist Teresa Ho said tokenized money market funds will likely keep attracting capital to the industry while enhancing their appeal as collateral. This, she noted, could help preserve “cash as an asset” in the face of stablecoins’ growing influence.

“Instead of posting cash, or posting Treasurys, you can post money-market shares and not lose interest along the way. It speaks to the versatility of money funds,” Ho told Bloomberg. 

Still, analysts say stablecoin growth under GENIUS will ultimately benefit tokenization by providing clearer rules and stronger on-ramps into blockchain markets.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 10:10

Oil Prices Surge On Ukrainian Drone Threat, Expanded Russian Sanctions Fears

Oil prices are surging this morning as the market is caught in a "tug-of-war" between bearish fundamentals and heightened geopolitical risks (as Citigroup put it).

“The volatility reflects the market’s ongoing struggle to balance growing surplus risks against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and resilient refined product margins,” said Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB AB.

“Sentiment remains broadly cautious.”

Crude rallied initially on mounting fears that Ukrainian drone attacks may disrupt flows through Russia’s two most important crude-exporting hubs on the Baltic coast.

The strikes have suspended operations at Primorsk, the main oil-loading port in the region, as well as three pumping stations pushing crude to the Ust-Luga hub, a person familiar with the situation said.

The gains extended further on reports that the Trump administration will urge its allies in the Group of Seven to imposes tariffs as high as 100% on China and India for their purchases of Russian oil in an effort to convince President Vladimir Putin to end his war in Ukraine.

The US proposal calls for 50% to 100% secondary tariffs on China and India as well as restrictive trade measures on both imports and exports to curb the flow of Russian energy and to prevent the transfer of dual-use technologies into Russia, according to the proposal.

President Trump has told European officials he’s willing to impose sweeping new tariffs on India and China to push Putin to the negotiating table with Ukraine - but only if nations in Europe do so as well.

Trump’s suggestion comes after his deadline for Putin to hold a bilateral meeting with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy passed without indication that the Russian leader was genuinely interested in engaging in face-to-face peace talks.

Instead, Moscow has stepped up its Ukraine bombing campaign.

As Bloomberg reports, the heightened risk premium offset an International Energy Agency projection for a record oil supply surplus next year.

A more pessimistic report from the agency on Thursday followed a decision by OPEC+ to keep returning idled barrels to the market in October, albeit at a lower rate than previous hikes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 08:44

Futures Dip As Record-Breaking Rally Runs Out Of Steam

US equity futures are fractionally lower with small caps lagging as the record-breaking rally in stocks appeared to be running out of steam. At 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures slid 0.1% after all major US indexes hit all-time highs on Thursday, however Nasdaq 100 futures are still in the green amid an relentless tech bid: Microsoft rose in premarket trading, leading the Mag 7 after it avoided a hefty antitrust penalty from the European Union. Europe’s Stoxx 600 eased as well. Incremental headlines after yesterday’s close were limited as Fed policy and AI development continue to support bulls over job market concerns or geopolitics. On trade, Bessent and Chinese VP will meet in Madrid next week. Yields are 1-2bp higher and USD is higher. Commodities are mixed, with oil and base metals higher, while precious metals are lower. Today's econ data slate is just the September prelim University of Michigan sentiment at 10am New York time.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher with AMZN and AAPL lagging (Microsoft +1%, Nvidia +0.1%, Amazon -0.07%, Meta +0.01%, Tesla +0.1%, Apple -0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%)

• Adobe (ADBE) rises about 3% after giving a strong quarterly revenue outlook, suggesting that the software maker is seeing a payoff from its investment in AI features.
• Alaska Air (ALK) gains 2% as an upgrade from UBS gives the stock a clean sweep of buy ratings among analysts.
• Array Technologies (ARRY) declines 5% as BofA assigns the solar tracking technology firm its only negative analyst rating, downgrading to underperform based on tariff drag.
• RH (RH) falls 8% after the luxury furniture company cut its sales outlook for the full year, citing mounting impacts from new US tariffs that resulted in delays to a seasonal catalog.
• Stellantis’ US shares (STLA) fall 3%, giving back some of the gains booked on Thursday following comments from CEO Antonio Filosa on dealer inventory levels and the company’s tariff talks with Washington. UBS tempered the optimism this morning, claiming the risk-reward profile looks “unattractive” in the near-term.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) gains 5% after the server company announced the availability of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is up 6%, set to extend Thursday’s 29% rally as Paramount Skydance, the Hollywood studio taken over by independent filmmaker David Ellison, is said to be preparing a bid for the company.

Stocks repeatedly scaled all-time highs after a raft of data this week pointed to a strained labor market and relatively contained inflation, sealing a Fed cut when policymakers meet next week. Some now question whether the rally has further room to run as seasonal weakness and geopolitical uncertainty linger. Meanwhile swaps pricing indicates traders anticipate the equivalent of between two or three quarter point cuts through year-end, with some wagering on a jumbo half-point cut next week (odds about 10%).

Claudia Panseri, chief investment officer for France at UBS Wealth Management, cautioned that markets were reaching the limit of pricing in Fed support: “I would say that the market is overestimating the scale of rate cuts across the 12 coming months,” she said. “As for next week, some investors will be disappointed if there’s not a 50 basis-point cut, and I don’t think there will be.”

While the slowdown in the labor market has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may have stayed on pause for too long, Bank BofA strategist Michael Hartnett said markets are betting that policymakers would still be ahead of the curve once they begin cutting rates. A rally in banks and other rate-sensitive stocks, along with a decline in investment-grade credit spreads, signal that investors are “saying the Fed can cut with credibility and is cutting into US growth re-acceleration,” he said.

Analysts expect small caps to outperform over the next twelve months, with the potential for a 20% advance in the Russell 2000, compared with calls for an 11% jump in the S&P 500, as highlighted in today’s Taking Stock column. BI strategist Gillian Wolff notes the Russell 2000 broke above the key psychological level of 2,400 this week and at 68, the 14-day RSI remains far from overbought levels — prior highs were marked by RSI above a 73-handle.

In European markets, European stocks are subdued on Friday as investors await the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Automobile and retail shares are biggest laggards, while mining and utilities equities are the best-performers.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed at 554.86. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• European miners are outperforming on Friday thanks to a broad rise in metal prices, with gold, copper, aluminum and nickel all gaining ground
• Hannover Rueck SE shares rise as much as 3.4%, the most since April, after UBS raised the recommendation on the German reinsurance company to buy from neutral on earnings resilience
• Inwido rises as much as 6%, reaching the highest in two months, as Berenberg initiates on the Swedish windows and door manufacturer with a buy rating
• Vallourec shares rise as much as 6.3%, the most in over two months, after the tubular product maker said it has won a major contract from Petrobras that could generate up to $1 billion in revenue
• European energy firms are lagging the wider market on Friday as oil extends a decline after the International Energy Agency projected an even bigger surplus next year
• Novartis drops as much as 2.9% after the stock was downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs. The analysts say the Swiss drugmaker’s valuation looks “stretched” given the increasing impact of generic competition following drug patent expiries in the coming years
• Ocado shares plunge as much as 12% extending losses booked in late trading on Thursday. Morgan Stanley analysts noted “negative readacross” from comments made on US grocer Kroger’s conference call yesterday

French bonds lagged most regional peers ahead of a Fitch Ratings update on the country, due after the close. French assets have been unsettled after former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a confidence vote, failing to muster enough support to rein in the budget deficit.  “The market is already incorporating at least one or two or even three downgrades,” Vincent Mortier, chief investment officer at Amundi SA, told Bloomberg TV. “We’re still far away from a sub-investment-grade rating. The market has been quicker than the rating agencies to adjust the levels.”

Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced, as technology shares extended their rally on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, poised for a seventh day of rise in its longest winning streak since May 2024. South Korea’s Kospi notched another all-time high, after SK Hynix announced it had completed development of its next-generation AI memory chip. Shares in Hong Kong also rose, with Alibaba surging amid optimism over its AI infrastructure plans. Risk appetite has been improving in Asia as tariff worries ease on progress in US trade talks. The return of optimism on the AI trade, a liquidity-driven rally in Chinese stocks and expectations that Fed cuts will allow Asian central banks room to ease further have helped power the advance. Tech got a boost this week from Oracle Corp.’s upbeat cloud-business outlook. Stocks also climbed Friday in Taiwan, Japan and Australia. Indonesia’s key equity gauge jumped more than 1% on optimism over plans from the nation’s new finance minister. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Ain Holdings Inc. shares jumped after the Japanese pharmacy operator raised its full-year operating profit guidance. Meanwhile, Fuji Oil Co. shares surged following a takeover offer from Idemitsu Kosan Co.
• Infosys shares rise as much as 2.3% to their highest in seven weeks after the software firm said it will buy back shares worth 180 billion rupees ($2 billion).
• Aristocrat Leisure shares fall as much as 4.5%, the most since May 14, after the Australian game machine operator said Dylan Slaney will replace Moti Malul as CEO of the interactive division.
• Star Plus Legend shares rise as much as 22% in Hong Kong, the most since July 30, after a media report saying that a robot dog created by the company and Hangzhou Unitree Technology will make its first appearance soon.
• Malaysian car distributor Bermaz Auto Bhd. fell to a record low after its first-quarter net income slumped 88%, weighed by strong competition from Chinese automakers.
• Ascletis Pharma shares rise as much as 6.6% in Hong Kong after the company said Chairman Jason Wu and Executive Director Judy Wu are demonstrating “strong faith” in its long-term value and future prospects.
• Verisilicon Microelectronics shares surge as much as 20% to a record high, resuming trading following a halt, after the company announced plans to buy a Shanghai chip tech firm.
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s stock gained the most in about two weeks after the company initiated a series of moves intended to shore up its place in China’s AI development boom.
• Anritsu shares jump as much as 13% to the highest intraday level since Nov 2021 after Goldman Sachs initiates a buy rating on the Japanese measurement instruments company on expectations of profit growth driven by AI and data center businesses.
• Timee shares plunged as much as 18%, the most in a year, after the part-time job app developer’s quarterly sales missed estimates, spurring concern about weakness in its food industry operations.

In FX, the dollar rebounded from back-to-back losses. The yen lags G-10 currency peers, down by 0.5%, and set for a third consecutive weekly decline. The pound trimmed a weekly gain after the economy showed a sluggish start to the third quarter, with gross domestic product flat and slowing from the previous month.

In rates, treasuries pulled back from Thursday’s advance alongside weakness in Europe, with the US 10-year yield rising two basis points to 4.05%. Yields are biased slightly higher amid bigger losses for bunds during European morning following German and French CPI data. US front-end to 10-year yields are cheaper by as much as 1.5bp with 2s10s curve barely 1bp steeper on the day. Long-end yields are little changed, flattening 5s30s by about 1bp. German and UK counterparts lag US 10-year by 2bp and 1bp. Gilt yields are higher and the pound is weaker after UK economy flat-lined in July.

In commodities, gold pares gains after testing another record, but is still up by $6 to $3,639/oz as money pours into bullion-backed ETFs. Copper and nickel also rise to buoy miners in Europe. Oil prices reverse an earlier decline, with Brent trading up 1% and shy of $67/barrel.

Looking ahead, today’s calendar includes the US September University of Michigan Survey, UK July monthly GDP, Italy’s Q2 unemployment rate, and Canada’s July building permits. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Rehn, Kocher, and Nagel, as well as the BoE’s inflation attitudes survey.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.04%
• VIX little changed at 14.68
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1199.62
• euro -0.1% at $1.172
• WTI crude +0.6% at $62.74/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump says Charlie Kirk's murder suspect has been captured and is in police custody
• The US will pressure G7 countries to hit India and China with sharply higher tariffs for buying Russian oil in an attempt to force Moscow into peace talks with Ukraine, according to four people briefed on the plans. FT  
• China on Thursday warned Mexico that raising tariffs on Chinese goods will be considered “appeasement” to US “bullying,” after Mexico mulled plans to impose import duties of up to 50%. Nikkei
• Allianz and AllianceBernstein are among global firms boosting holdings of Chinese government bonds after a selloff driven by a rotation into stocks sent yields to multi-month highs. Analysts also expect the PBOC to resume purchases. BBG
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and other senior officials next week in Madrid to continue their discussions on trade, economic and national security issues, the Treasury said on Thursday. RTRS
• Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced former president Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after his 2022 election defeat. Marco Rubio said the US will respond “accordingly.” BBG
• OpenAI is moving closer to a for-profit structure under a new deal with Microsoft, giving its nonprofit parent an equity stake of more than $100 billion. The plan faces resistance from Elon Musk and regulatory scrutiny. BBG
• Sam Altman and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang will announce investments worth billions of dollars in UK data centers next week, people familiar said. BBG
• Adobe (+3.8% premkt) shares rose on a strong revenue forecast, suggesting investments in AI features are paying off.  Reported solid quarterly results, and upped its Revenue, net new ARR, and EPS guidance which should help push back on bear thesis. 
• Gold ETF holdings jumped about 25 tons this week — the sixth-highest weekly gain this year — on the back of Fed rate-cut bets, weaker yields and central-bank demand. Still, Phillip Nova warned long-term holding is riskier amid volatile momentum-driven trading. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent will travel to Spain and the UK on September 12th-18th on a trip that includes government and private sector meetings in London. Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He and other senior Chinese officials next week in Madrid, while Bessent and He are to discuss key US-China national security, economic and trade issues, including TikTok and anti-money-laundering cooperation. Furthermore, Bessent will also meet with Spanish government counterparts to discuss the US-Spain relationship and is to join US President Trump in the UK for an official state visit with King Charles.
• China's Commerce Ministry said planned Mexican tariffs on China are too seriously affect Mexico's business environment and confidence of enterprises in investing in Mexico, while it added that China will take necessary measures to safeguard legitimate rights and interests.
• Taiwan said it will continue advanced talks with the US and seeks more equitable reciprocal trade terms with the US, while Taiwan and the US affirmed that some progress was made in trade talks

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall St, where the major indices climbed to record highs after a jump in Initial Jobless claims further boosted Fed rate cut pricing. ASX 200 edged higher with outperformance in Real Estate, Miners, Materials & Financials spearheading the advances as Fed rate hike expectations boost global risk sentiment. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs and approached closer towards the 45,000 level despite little fresh pertinent drivers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with tech leading the gains in Hong Kong after it was reported that Alibaba (9988 HK) and Baidu (9888 HK) are using internally designed chips for training AI models are to adopt their own AI chips in a major shift for Chinese tech, while the mainland lagged amid frictions, with the US reportedly to urge G7 to impose high tariffs on China and India over Russian oil purchases.

Top Asian News

• Japanese and US finance ministers' joint statement noted as trusted partners, the United States Department of the Treasury and the Japanese Ministry of Finance agreed to continue their close consultations on macroeconomic and foreign exchange matters, while they reaffirmed that exchange rates should be market-determined and that excess volatility can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability.
• Japanese Member of the House of Representatives Takaichi leads in a Kyodo poll to be next head of Japan ruling party.
• Chinese finance minister says local debt swap programme is achieving results. China's finance minister vows to resolutely curb new local hidden debt.
• Japan's former Top Currency Diplomat Gyoten says BoJ must take into consideration concerns that weak JPY could accelerate inflation; Japan's interest rates are too low and are contributing to the JPY weakness.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened modestly firmer across the board, but sentiment slipped as the morning progressed to display a negative picture – nothing really behind the turn. European sectors are split down the middle, and with little overall newsflow driving this at the moment. Basic Resources takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in underlying metals prices. Insurance and Utilities follow closely behind. Autos is found at the foot of the pile, and then joined by Retail and Energy

Top European News

• UBS Global Wealth Management expects ECB to remain on hold in 2025 (prev. 25bps cut in Dec); Now expect ECB to remain on hold for a prolonged period
• ECB's Simkus says inflation has stabilised at the target and labour market is in a good situation, adds economic activity is quicker than previously observed. Inflation risks are significantly high.
• ECB's Villeroy says another rate cut is possible in coming meetings; upward risks to inflation are lower than downward, via Bloomberg.
• ECB's Kazaks says risks remain elevated; a meeting-by-meeting approach is still appropriate, via CNBC; December meeting is 'rich'.
• ECB's Muller says rates in the right place at the moment.
• ECB's Rehn says the risk that inflation remains slower than the target level should not be underestimated. Must be mindful of downside risks to inflation stemming from cheaper energy and a stronger EUR.
• ECB's Kocher says the gap between Austrian inflation and EZ average is far too high; growth and inflation outlook presented at the meeting was little changed; will decide meeting-by-meeting and changes to risk landscape.
• Ipsos data: UK public inflation expectations at 3.6% (prev. 3.2%) for the coming year and 3.4% (prev. 3.2%) for the following 12-month period, 5-year 3.8% (prev. 3.6%)

FX

• DXY is attempting to claw back some lost ground after declining on Thursday in the wake of the jump in US weekly claims data, which overshadowed the mostly in-line/slightly firmer (on an underlying basis) CPI report. Pricing for next week's FOMC rate decision was largely unchanged with markets reluctant to price a 50bps reduction. With regards to personnel at the Fed, the latest reporting suggests US Treasury Secretary Bessent met this week with Warsh, Lindsey, and Bullard as the search for the next Fed chair continues. Ahead, focus is on UoM data for September. DXY sits towards the bottom end of Thursday's 97.47-98.08 range.
• EUR is steady vs. the USD after gaining yesterday in the wake of a broadly softer dollar and what turned out to be a hawkish ECB policy announcement. Source reporting has suggested that an October cut is very unlikely. However, the matter could be revisited in December alongside the latest economic projections. We have heard from a slew of ECB speakers this morning, who have largely echoed Lagarde's remarks that policy is in the right place. Afterhours, focus will be on Fitch's review of France. EUR/USD ventured as high as 1.1747 before pulling back. If upside resumes, the WTD peak sits at 1.1780.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD and at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard. Focus this week for Japan has primarily been on the fallout from political uncertainty after PM Ishiba announced his resignation, with pressure this morning potentially exacerbated by the Kyodo poll. The inference for markets has been that the upheaval in Japan could derail BoJ tightening expectations. Elsewhere, a joint statement between the US and Japan has reaffirmed their commitment to close consultations on foreign exchange matters and reaffirmed that exchange rates should be market-determined. USD/JPY is currently contained within Thursday's 146.98-148.19 range.
• GBP is on the backfoot vs. the USD following an in-line M/M outturn for UK GDP at 0%, leaving the 3M/3M rate at 0.2%, as expected. Looking ahead, Pantheon expects "GDP growth will probably undershoot the MPC’s forecast for Q3 slightly after today’s release, but that should have little effect on interest rates". Cable sits towards the middle of Thursday's 1.3490-1.3583 range.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD after faltering alongside the pullback in risk sentiment in early European trade. Macro drivers for both remain on the light side and as such, the risk environment and broader moves in the USD are likely to provide the greatest source of traction for AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1019 vs exp. 7.1081 (Prev. 7.1034).

Fixed Income

• A softer start to the final session of a packed week. Today’s docket is a little lighter stateside, University of Michigan is the main data event while scheduled speakers are light aside from POTUS on Fox at 13:00BST, an interview likely to focus on Charlie Kirk. Currently, USTs are lower by a handful of ticks in a thin c. five tick range which is comfortably within Thursday’s 113-09 to 113-29 band. September aside, Treasury Secretary Bessent met this week with Warsh, Lindsey, and Bullard regarding the Chair position. Will be speaking with sitting officials’ post-blackout. His goal is to add one or two names to the list of candidates.
• Bunds are softer, continuing to pullback from the 129.38 peak that printed yesterday in reaction to US weekly claims. Entered today’s session just above the 129.00 mark but has since slipped below the figure and is at a 128.84 trough. Very much focussed on the post-ECB sources. In short, a move in October is off the cards (-1.3bps implied) with policymakers generally of the view that further easing is not required to get inflation to the 2.0% target; however, the December meeting (-3.8bps implied) is the point to review this when new forecasts will be available including the first look at 2028. ECB speak today has been mixed but has largely echoed commentary from Lagarde on Thursday.
• Gilts are just in the red, but outperforming peers. Outperformance that is a function of the morning’s growth data. Where the headline metrics were as expected for the M/M and 3M/3M, the Y/Y missed consensus and the manufacturing/production breakdown was very weak, printing beneath the forecast range. Notably, the M/M only just avoided being a negative print, helped out by some favourable 1dp rounding. A series that was sufficient to lift Gilts to a 91.75 peak, posting gains of 11 ticks at best. However, as the morning progressed this strength has waned and the benchmark is well off best, but still outperforming peers. The data has had no impact on BoE pricing, with markets not looking for a move until around March 2026.
• OATs are lower, in-fitting with peers. Awaiting the sovereign review from Fitch, due after the US close. Into this, OATs trade in-line with Bunds and the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread holds just below the 80bps mark. Fitch has France at AA-, negative. Fitch last updated on March 14th, highlighting high levels of debt and a poor record of fiscal consolidation as points of weakness, adding the negative outlook is reflective of significant fiscal risks.

Commodities

• Crude opened lower, but traded with an upward bias since the European cash open, taking the complex into the green; currently resides at session highs. Some of the downbeat sentiment may be on EU officials suggesting it is unlikely the G7 will impose 100% tariffs on China and India, as India is a vital partner in trade and security matters, according to FT. WTI currently resides in a 61.69-62.83/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.71-66.91/bbl range.
• Precious metals are steadily gaining despite this morning's dollar strength and in tandem with a rally in silver, which climbed above the USD 42/oz level. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,622.75-3,649.35/oz range. All-time high still sits at USD 3,674.69/oz printed on 9th September.
• Base metals trades firmly despite the weaker sentiment and stronger dollar, and with little in terms of newsflow to explain price action, although supply-side headlines yesterday suggested Peruvian copper output fell 2% in July. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 10,054.35-10,127.20/t range at the time of writing.
• US Energy Secretary Wright says the faster EU phase out of Russian energy would be helpful in ending the Ukraine war; thinks EU could phase out Russian oil and gas faster.
• Commerzbank raised gold price forecast to USD 3,800/oz by end-2026 (prev. USD 3,600/oz); raises silver end-2025 forecast to USD 41/oz to USD 43/oz; raises platinum forecast for 2025-end to USD 1,400/oz (prev. USD 1,350/oz).

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel's UN envoy to the Security Council said Israel will act against the leaders of terror wherever they are hiding.
• Qatar's PM said to the UN Security Council that the Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Doha is a violation of Qatar's sovereignty, and the attack, which was carried out while we are engaged in mediation, exposes Israel's intentions to derail peace efforts. Furthermore, Qatar's PM said Israeli leaders show no regard for hostages' lives and Qatar will continue its humanitarian and diplomatic role to spare bloodshed, but will not tolerate any infringement on sovereignty and security.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• The US is to urge G7 to impose high tariffs on China and India over Russian oil purchases, while finance ministers from G7 leading economies will discuss a US proposal for a round of new measures on Friday, according to FT.
• EU officials say it is unlikely G7 will impose 100% tariffs on China and India as India is a vital partner in trade and security matters, according to FT.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan is to impose additional asset freeze, export controls, and sanctions on Russia over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, while he added they are to lower the price cap on Russian crude oil from today.
• Japan's Trade Ministry said they are to restrict exports to additional entities, including six in China, two in Turkey, and one in the UAE, as part of sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• NATO Secretary General Rutte and Supreme Allied Commander to hold joint press conference at NATO headquarters today at 16:00 BST.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Sep P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 58, prior 58.2

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we approach the end of the week, markets have been in a buoyant mood over the last 24 hours, continuing into this morning's Asian session, with investor attention squarely focused on the slightly higher than expected US August CPI release, and the notably higher than expected jobless claims data. The influence of the latter won out with December fed futures spiking to price in 76bps of cuts immediately after the numbers, having been at 68bps before the release. We ended up pricing in 72bps at the close. This overshadowed a slightly hawkish ECB meeting where sources later suggested that the ECB are inclined to keep rates on hold in this cycle unless there is an economic shock. Equities extended their recent rally, with the S&P 500 (+0.85%), Nasdaq (+0.72%), and the Mag-7 (+1.13%) all notching fresh record highs.

Starting with the US CPI report, headline inflation rose by +0.4% month-on-month (m/m) in August, up from +0.2% in July and above the +0.3% consensus forecast. Core inflation matched expectations at +0.3% m/m, unchanged from July but it did come in at 0.345%, just shy of rounding up. However, it was outsized increases in volatile categories such as airfares (+5.8% m/m) and lodging (+2.3% m/m) that pushed the core reading higher, with the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean CPI measure rising by a more moderate +0.26% m/m. Indeed, with airfares CPI not entering into the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation measure, our US economists’ projection for August core PCE has declined to +0.22% m/m after the CPI print. Overall, they see the CPI data pointing to continued strength in service prices, but to potentially more moderate tariff impacts than previously anticipated. See their full take here

Alongside CPI, initial jobless claims for the week ending 6 September rose to +263k, well above the +235k expected. The state of Texas accounted for most of this increase so some of this spike was likely due to temporary distortions. Still, it was yet another data point adding to a picture of a softening US labour market.

The combined data prompted a rally in US Treasuries, with 10yr yields falling -6bps lower after the print before closing -2.5bp on the day to 4.02%. 30yr yields saw a larger -4.2bps decline, even as they sold off a little after an average 30yr auction. However, the front-end rally ran out of steam as the day went on and 2yr yields closed a mere -0.1bps lower as markets remained hesitant to price in much risk of a 50bps cut, with September Fed pricing unchanged at 27bps. The dollar index weakened slightly, posting a -0.25% decline.

Equities responded positively to the lower rates outlook. The S&P 500 (+0.85%) and Nasdaq (+0.72%) both advanced to fresh records, supported by continued enthusiasm around AI. The Magnificent 7 gained +1.13%, although Oracle slipped -6.23% after three consecutive days of gains. But the equity gains were widespread with 436 advancers within the S&P 500 being the most we’ve seen since May 27, while the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.83%) surged to within 1% of its own record high reached back in November 2021.

Turning to Europe, the ECB held rates steady at 2%, as widely expected, but this was accompanied by some hawkish hints that led markets to price out prospects of another rate cut. The ECB saw the risks to growth as “more balanced” amid fading trade uncertainty and a resilient domestic economy. President Christine Lagarde stated that the “disinflationary process is over” and repeated that policy is “in a good place”. While there was a dovish tweak with the 2027 core CPI forecast being lowered from +1.9% to +1.8%, Lagarde did not focus on this, rather calling the downwardly revised +1.9% headline CPI projection for 2027 a “minimal deviation” from target. Overall, our European economists see the ECB as increasingly comfortable with 2% policy rates, and they continue to expect the next ECB move to be a hike in late 2026. See their full reaction here.

In response, markets effectively removed any pricing of an October rate cut and are now pricing only 10 bps of easing by next March (-3.1bps on the day), which marks the first time that another 25bp rate cut has been less than 50% priced. That sent 2yr bund yields +3.3bps higher, though the 10yr yield (+0.4bps to 2.65%) was little changed amid the US bond rally.

The euro gained +0.33% against the dollar on the day, and European equities rose as the STOXX 600 climbed +0.55%, with the CAC 40 up +0.78% and the DAX +0.30%.

Elsewhere, oil prices fell, with Brent crude down -1.66% to $66.37/bbl as the International Energy Agency projected a larger record oil market surplus for 2026. That outweighed ongoing geopolitical concerns after Russia’s drone incursions into Poland on Tuesday night. Warsaw’s allies including France and Germany pledged to expand their air policing over Poland, but we are yet to hear if Europe and the US will announce new sanctions in response.

In Asia, the Hang Seng tech index is leading the way with a rise of +2.18%, while the Hang Seng itself is +1.53%, bringing its five-day gain to over 4% and positioning it for its highest close since August 2021. Meanwhile, the KOSPI is up by +1.28%, supported by a notable surge of over 7% in one of its major heavyweights, SK Hynix, after the company announced the successful completion of its next-generation high bandwidth memory chip, HBM4, which is essential for AI applications. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.08%) is rising for the third consecutive session, reaching new record highs despite the uncertainty following Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation. The Shanghai Composite (+0.20%) is seeing more muted gains alongside US equity futures which are currently flat as I type. 

Looking ahead, today’s calendar includes the US September University of Michigan Survey, UK July monthly GDP, Italy’s Q2 unemployment rate, and Canada’s July building permits. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Rehn, Kocher, and Nagel, as well as the BoE’s inflation attitudes survey.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 08:37

French Government Collapse Signals Rising Eurozone Debt Risk

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

French Prime Minister François Bayrou failed a parliamentary confidence vote, bringing his government to an end. While markets largely remained calm, this does not mean France’s debt crisis has been postponed.

After only nine months in office, President Emmanuel Macron’s fourth government has collapsed. Prime Minister François Bayrou lost Monday evening’s confidence vote on his austerity budget by 364 to 194 votes. Bayrou announced his resignation for Tuesday. 

Bayrou Acknowledged the Severity of the Situation 

Bayrou took responsibility for the dire state of French public finances and attempted to impose a fiscal consolidation program. With public debt at 114% of GDP and a net borrowing forecast of 5.4% for this year, the plan included €44 billion in spending cuts, frozen pensions, and the reduction of two public holidays—measures intended as a lifeline for the struggling economy.

Both the parliamentary majority and broad segments of French society fundamentally opposed the reform program. Another general strike is already looming.

With Bayrou’s resignation, the wavering Emmanuel Macron faces the task of appointing a fifth prime minister in two years. Until the upcoming elections in April 2027, any government, regardless of composition, will confront the same problems. Any form of fiscal consolidation will be torpedoed by entrenched political factions. France is stuck in a political deadlock, making debt consolidation seem impossible.

The Road to Disaster 

This bizarre situation reveals that France’s political elite—and increasingly across all EU states under debt pressure—can no longer put economic necessity above ideological divides. The lost confidence vote is another nail in the EU’s coffin and will soon manifest in markets as a problem for the Eurozone, as investors realize France’s political impotence.

In recent days, Bayrou openly criticized the French lifestyle, identifying the welfare state as a core problem. He now experiences firsthand that anyone challenging the numerous privileges of the sprawling welfare system is politically ruthlessly punished. France defends its transfer society as a national sacred cow, even though this stance leads straight into fiscal catastrophe.

Europe’s Contagion Risk 

For financial markets, the events in Paris are not good news. France’s “OATs” — Treasury bonds — showed little immediate reaction to the government’s collapse. Yet they had been under increasing pressure in recent weeks amid the brewing sovereign crisis. Yields rose, and the spread to German Bunds—Europe’s benchmark—widened to as much as 90 basis points, signaling risk.

French government bonds are now trading with a significant risk premium, much like UK debt. Contagion risk looms for the Eurozone if markets turn to other high-debt nations such as Spain, Italy, or Greece, potentially triggering a chain reaction reminiscent of the prior sovereign debt crisis.

France remains in turmoil. On Friday, another crucial test awaits: Fitch will release its credit rating assessment.
Source

While an immediate downgrade is unlikely—France already sits at AA- with a negative outlook—a fall into the single-A category is now a real possibility. This would force institutional investors to sell French bonds, further raising refinancing costs and deepening France’s debt spiral. The country would gradually lose its “quasi risk-free” benchmark status in the Euro core.

Pricing in the Risks 

A similar pattern emerged in the currency markets, where the euro even gained slightly against the US dollar. Signals of the upcoming sovereign debt crisis may also come from precious metals: gold and silver temporarily hit all-time highs Monday evening, confirming a steady upward trend bolstered by central bank demand worldwide.

Private investors and institutional players should take note: awareness of impending sovereign crises has heightened since the severe market shocks eighteen months ago. Gold offers a safe haven without counterparty risk.

The ECB faces a difficult balancing act: in the event of renewed intervention, it must weigh inflation control against financial stability. Rising spreads can distort the transmission of monetary policy, forcing targeted liquidity measures without abandoning policy tightening entirely. Market commentators warn of a “jittery autumn” for Eurozone spreads.
Source

Showdown Inevitable 

The European Central Bank, the final Eurozone backstop in case of panicked bond sell-offs, remained invisible on Monday. Calm trading after the failed confidence vote and stable yields in French bonds and the euro suggest that the ECB may have quietly intervened with selective support purchases. Confirmation will come in weeks with the next TCI report, revealing central bank transactions.

Until then, speculation continues—unless leaks surface prematurely.

Cynics might argue markets have grown accustomed to the French drama and are merely awaiting the next chapter, possibly involving liquidity problems. Overall, the gradual sell-off of long-term government debt in global markets continues. France remains under close scrutiny due to ongoing political turbulence and unresolved fiscal challenges.

The major bond market showdown looms like a dark cloud, and the relentless accumulation of public debt will sooner or later unleash severe storms. The global financial architecture rests on a fragile foundation—a fiat currency system built on inflationarily circulating sovereign debt.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 08:05

How The EU Pays Mainstream Media To Promote Its Narratives

Authored by Robert Williams via The Gatestone Institute,

The unelected leadership of the evidently corrupt European Union (EU) is now paying mainstream media to promote the agendas of its EU "elites." The EU appears to have spent as much as 1 billion euros during the past decade alone in the process, according to a recent report, "Brussels's media machine: European media funding and the shaping of public discourse," by Thomas Fazi, from the European think tank MCC Brussels.

Framing the projects as "fighting disinformation" and "promoting European integration" the EU has been throwing taxpayer money, conservatively estimated at €80 million annually, to "media projects" -- not including indirect funding, such as advertising contracts.

The report also shows that the EU runs a highly sophisticated "EU media complex" through which it gets to shape media narratives about itself and its agendas.

According to Fazi's report:

"The European Commission – through its Journalism Partnerships programme alone, with a cumulative budget approaching € 50 million to date – oversees a vast ecosystem of EU media 'collaborations.' Over the years, these have included hundreds of projects, ranging from pro-EU promotional campaigns to questionable 'investigative journalism' initiatives and sweeping 'anti-fake news' efforts. And that's on top of the advertorial campaigns funded through the Information Measures for the EU Cohesion policy (IMREG) programme, to the tune of € 40 million so far...

"Even more concerning is the central role played by major European public broadcasters in this process. These projects show that this is not a matter of one-off collaborations, but rather an evolving semi-structural relationship between EU institutions and public media networks."

The European Commission has, it seems, has literally paid off almost everything and everyone in the media world -- meaning that everyone, from news agencies to media outlets, public broadcasters and other media organizations, sits in the pocket of the European Commission to greater or smaller degrees.

Some examples:

Among news agencies -- upon which practically all news outlets depend for their reporting -- the European Commission has poured money into the following, among others:

Agence France-Presse has received €7 million from the EU, ANSA (Italy) €5.6 million, Deutsche Presse-Agentur, (Germany) €3.2 million, Agencia EFE (Spain) €2 million, Associated Press (AP) €1 million, Lusa News Agency (Portugal) €200,000 Polish Press Agency €500,000, and Athens News Agency €600,000.

A selection of news outlets also appear to be being paid off by the European Commission:

Euronews (pan-European) €230 million, ARTE (France) €26 million, Euractiv (pan-European) €6 million, Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland) €105,000, 444.hu (Hungary) €1.1 million, France TV (France) €400,000, GEDI Gruppo Editoriale (Italy) €190,000, ZDF (Germany) €500,000, and Bayerischer Rundfunk (Germany) €600,000.

Public broadcasters have received the following:

Deutsche Welle (Germany) €35 million, France Médias Monde €16.5 million, France Télévisions €1 million, RAI Radiotelevisione italiana (Italy) €2 million, RTBF (Belgium) €675,000, RTP (Portugal) €1.5 million, Estonian Public Broadcasting, ERR €1 million, RTVE (Spain) €770,000 ERR (Estonia) €1 million and TV2 (Denmark) €900,000.

Media organizations such as Reporters Without Borders (France) and Journalismfund Europe (Belgium) have received €5.7 million and €2.6 million respectively. A Dutch organization that calls itself independent, Bellingcat, has received €440,000.

These abundant examples of media and news organizations are just those within the EU. The EU, however, is also operating a large-scale influence operation outside of the EU, of course under the benign sounding propaganda words of "framed as support for media freedom and pluralism" – as if the EU knows the first thing about freedom and pluralism. The projects have centered especially on media in Ukraine, Armenia,  Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, Belarus and the western Balkans.

There is nothing transparent about any of this funding.

According to the report, it is opaque and difficult to uncover.

It makes sense, however, that the EU would seek to cover up its own influence peddling as much as possible.

The report concludes:

"[T]he EU's ever-expanding system of media financing... creates financial dependencies, incentivises narrative conformity and fosters an ecosystem in which dissenting voices are marginalised – all under the virtuous banners of 'fighting disinformation', 'promoting European values' and 'building a European public sphere.'

"The extent of institutional entanglement between EU bodies and major media actors – from public broadcasters to news agencies to online outlets – cannot be brushed aside as harmless or incidental. It constitutes a systemic conflict of interest that compromises the media's ability to function as an independent pillar of democracy. Even absent direct editorial interference, the structural dependency on EU grants and contracts is enough to exert a chilling effect on critical reporting and encourage a reflexive alignment with official EU positions."

The EU appears, sadly, to be a deeply corrupt and undemocratic regime, which desperately clings to power through influence-peddling and the imposition of heavy-handed censorship.

Hundreds of millions of Europeans continue to put up with these tactics. When will they please wake up?

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 07:20

Mapping Global Trade With New High-Frequency Data

The global economy is showing resilience despite a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and growing uncertainty over the future of the international trading system. To provide the most up-to-date snapshot, a Goldman team led by Patrick Creuset introduced clients to a new high-frequency dataset on global trade on Thursday. The global dataset highlights continued economic momentum outside the U.S., even as U.S. trade barriers weigh on imports. 

Creuset explained that the new dataset is built on IMF Portwatch and UN Global Platform data, sourcing satellite data of 90,000 commercial vessels and generating more than 25,000 datapoints each week. With about a one-week lag, it provides a near-real-time view of global container flows. 

Global trade growth has slowed to 3% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from 4% year-to-date, but remains resilient outside the U.S., where volumes declined in August. Much of China's strength is situated in its manufacturing industry, with exports up 5% compared to a 4% increase globally. Flows are increasingly directed toward emerging markets in Latin America and Africa, while Europe is importing more from China and exporting less back. A stronger euro against the yuan supports this. 

Charts 1 through 8 provide a near-real-time snapshot of the global economy. 

Global freight markets in the second half of 2025:

• Ocean: We see Q3 growth tracking 3% so far, with a positive skew to Asia-Europe and North-South trades. U.S. exposures will likely underperform, and we would expect U.S. trade to continue to soften into year-end given frontloading/inventory trends. Planned USTR service fees targeting Chinese-built fleets (Oct) could add a further layer of import costs and complexity. Container rates are likely to keep sliding into year-end given slowing demand, rising supply plus adverse seasonal factors.

• Air: Has been slightly more resilient than we had anticipated going into the quarter, +3%yoy QTD (Aug) with broadly stable rates (we took our DSV Air numbers up marginally last week), possibly reflecting greater capacity discipline vs. Ocean coupled with robust Tech shipment demand. We still expect the market to soften into Q4 given well-stocked inventories, ocean overcapacity, and the end of the U.S.' global de minimis exemptions as of 29 Aug.

• Road (Europe): Sequentially firmer, with German truck traffic +0.4%yoy QTD (Aug) after uninterrupted declines since early-22. As German infrastructure and defense-focused stimulus gets underway, Q3 25 could mark a positive cyclical inflection point.

This suggests that the popular Democratic narrative - repeated like a broken record on MSM such as CNN and MSNBC - that Trump's tariffs would wreck the global economy has, so far, been proven wrong. The data show no signs of impending doom or collapse, marking yet another major setback for the left's ability to hold a narrative for more than a day. 

The note, titled "Mapping Global Trade Close(r) to Real Time," contains more than 80 charts. We've covered only about 10% of the charts in this note. The remaining ones can be viewed by ZeroHedge Pro subscribers here. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 06:55

The Four Horsemen Of The Western Apocalypse

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Europe is plagued by a number of existential crises. Yet they are all self-inflicted—and by a dominant, therapeutic culture that embraced utopian but lethal bromides.

These suicidal wounds are now nearing the end-stage.

Indeed, they are destroying the very civilization that was soon envisioned to be heaven on earth.

The global warming hysterics could not just entertain gradual transformations away from dependencies on traditional fuels and power generation.

Instead, elites have demanded catastrophic and near-instant “net zero” mandates. That radicalism entailed transitioning to unreliable and costly solar and wind energy. Fuel and electricity prices then soared.

The green socialist elite cared little that shutdowns of nuclear, coal, natural gas, and oil power generation would cripple industry, reduce living standards, and impoverish Europe.

Germany, the once economic powerhouse of Europe, became a shell of its former self. The same efforts accelerated under the Obama and Biden administrations in the U.S.

Both administrations sought to slash new fossil fuel production and use, without regard to the costs, dangers to the economy, or deleterious effects on the middle class and poor.

Second, for the last half-century, affluent Westerners embraced the idea that there were no normative lifestyles. Often, they claimed nuclear families with 2-3 children were parochial and passé.

Children supposedly inhibited the lifestyles and aspirations of women. Larger families, we were told, unfairly burdened upscale professionals with unneeded costs and offered biased and injurious models to gays, the transgendered, and single, childless men and women.

The result is that the fertility rate plummeted in the West, particularly in Europe (1.4) and the United States (1.6), to unsustainable levels.

Academia, the media, government, and foundations promoted these ideas of “empowerment”—despite the historical evidence that societies that cannot reproduce themselves age, ossify, and finally implode.

The third horseman of the Western apocalypse was unrestricted and illegal immigration.

Again, the elites discarded a century of research and common sense that immigration into modern Western societies is only beneficial if it is legal, measured, diverse, meritocratic, and met with robust efforts of the host to integrate, acculturate, and assimilate foreigners.

The arrogant West scoffed at all that.

Instead, it destroyed borders. It welcomed in millions of impoverished and unaudited illegal aliens, many of them with little desire or ability to adopt the values of their hosts.

What followed were unsustainable social welfare entitlements, rising crime, social chaos, and growing internal strife.

The last horseman was a new tribalism, euphemistically dubbed diversity/equity/inclusion.

An elite Western class envisioned an entire set of reparatory actions for growing nonwhite populations to atone for purported prior, and sometimes ancient, sins of slavery, racism, colonialism, sexism, homophobia, and transphobia.

No matter that all of these pathologies are commonplace worldwide, only in the self-critical West was slavery first outlawed, and tribalism curtailed.

Indeed, nonwhite immigrants knew precisely why fellow non-Westerners flocked to Western nations in the millions. Only there do meritocracy, consensual government, and self-criticism ensure more prosperity, freedom, and security than in their own tribal, often sexist, religiously and ethnically chauvinistic, and statist societies.

Human nature dictates that once racial fixations for any reason normalize exemptions and advantages, then tribalism and civil strife inevitably resurface.

Self-perpetuating myths of everlasting victimhood are necessary to ensure permanent special preferences. The Western idea of the Enlightenment, that we are individuals, not tribes and collectives, free to question the world about us, is shattered.

Instead, we descend into precivilizational tribalism, predicated on our superficial appearances.

There is some hope only because the four horsemen of our apocalypse were welcomed into the West by a minority of naïve, secular, and privileged Westerners. They believed as demigods that their wealth and freedom were irreversible birthrights, that utopia was near, and that they would be exempt from any consequences of their failure.

As a remedy, the West needs to stop apologizing for its 2,500-year history and take pride in its unique European and Judeo-Christian tradition that is innately inclusive.

It does not have to be perfect to be good—only far better than the alternatives, as mass illegal immigration attests.

The West needs to resist top-down radical green bromides and assess their cost-to-benefit damage to most citizens.

Larger, multi-generational, and two-parent families are not strange but the historical lifeblood of robust civilizations.

If foreigners wish to move legally to the West, they should be reminded why they do so and thus integrate and assimilate to the hosts’ values—or stay home.

Finally, Americans especially need to speak out against anyone of any race or tribe who stereotypes and spouts hatred of others outside their tribe.

And feigned victimhood will end only when the invented victimizers say, “Sorry, enough is enough.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 06:30

How Much Caffeine Is Hiding In Your Daily Drink?

From morning cups of tea to late-night energy drinks, caffeine has become part of daily life across the globe.

But how much is hidden in these drinks, and when does it become too much?

A Global Habit

Caffeine is the world’s most commonly consumed stimulant, present in coffee, tea, soft drinks, and energy beverages. Billions of people rely on it each day for focus or an energy boost.

Yet health authorities stress that safe limits are not universal.

Age, body size, and metabolism all affect how much caffeine the body can handle.

Children and teenagers are particularly sensitive, while most adults tolerate moderate amounts more easily.

How Popular Drinks Compare

As Visual Capitalist shows in the infographic below, the amount of caffeine in common drinks varies widely:

• Cola (355ml): about 40mg

• Black tea (250ml): around 50mg

• Double espresso (60ml): 80mg

• Instant coffee (250ml): 100mg

• Red Bull (250ml): 80mg — about two colas or one espresso

• Monster/Relentless (500ml): 160mg — equal to four colas or two espressos

• Prime energy (330ml): 140mg — about three and a half colas or one and a half espressos

A single large energy drink can therefore contain as much caffeine as several cups of tea.

Children and Teenagers at Higher Risk

Health guidance around the world advises caution for younger people. Their smaller body size and developing nervous systems mean even one can of an energy drink may exceed recommended safe levels.

For teenagers, many health organisations suggest limiting caffeine to under 100mg a day — less than one can of Prime or Monster. For children, regular caffeine is often discouraged altogether.

Adults and Older People

For healthy adults, up to 400mg a day — the equivalent of four cups of coffee — is generally considered safe. But tolerance differs widely.

Older people may find that caffeine affects sleep, heart rate, or anxiety more strongly.

Why Awareness Matters

As high-caffeine energy drinks grow in popularity worldwide, experts say the public should be more aware of what is inside them. A product that looks like an ordinary soft drink can contain two or three times as much caffeine.

Knowing the numbers, health authorities suggest, is the first step to safer daily choices.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 05:45

China Continues To Import Sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG Cargoes

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• China has become a regular importer of LNG from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, with a third cargo recently discharging at a Chinese terminal.

• The Arctic LNG 2 export project, sanctioned by the US, EU, and UK, has resumed shipping cargoes after struggling for over a year to find buyers willing to risk secondary sanctions.

• Two additional LNG tankers carrying supply from the sanctioned Russian project are currently en route to the Chinese port of Beihai.

China appears to have become a regular importer of liquefied natural gas from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project in Russia as the third cargo in two weeks has just discharged gas at a Chinese import terminal.  

 The LNG tanker Zarya, sanctioned by the United States, unloaded on Wednesday over 160,000 cubic meters of LNG from Arctic LNG 2 at the southern Chinese Beihai LNG Terminal in Guangxi, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing ship-tracking data from LSEG and Kpler. 

The Arctic LNG 2 export project roared back to life this summer, in a sign that Russia is done waiting and is now sending off loaded LNG cargoes, which could be testing the Trump Administration’s willingness to sanction Russia’s LNG customers in China. 

Arctic LNG 2 is under sanctions by the United States, the EU, and the UK, which have also blacklisted many of the LNG vessels thought to be servicing the project’s output. 

For over a year, the U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, which was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, had effectively frozen the start-up of the export facility in the Gydan Peninsula.

The project last year came under intensifying sanctions from the United States, which put off any buyers that were previously considering buying cargoes from Arctic LNG 2.

The Russian export project struggled for more than a year to find any buyer willing to risk secondary sanctions. 

The wait ended at the end of August, when a cargo from the facility docked at a Chinese import terminal.

The Arctic Mulan LNG tanker arrived at the Beihai LNG terminal, and China received the cargo, making it the first-ever actual exported cargo out of the Russian facility. 

Now that the third LNG cargo from the sanctioned Russian project has unloaded in China, two other LNG tankers loaded with Arctic LNG supply are en route to Beihai and just a couple of days away from the Chinese port. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 05:00

Aussie Students Spend The Most Time In School, Polish Kids The Least

Students in OECD countries and economies receive an average of 7,604 hours of compulsory instruction during their primary and lower secondary education.

However, as Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, a wide gap exists between countries, with students in Poland receiving an average of just 5,304 hours, compared to Australia where children must attend nearly double that at 11,000 hours.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In the United States, children spend 8,917 hours on average in compulsory classes across primary school and early secondary school.

This is according to a new report by the OECD titled Education at a Glance.

Primary education lasts six years on average across OECD countries and economies, ranging from four grades in Poland to seven in Australia and Denmark.

In the U.S., children have six school years at the primary level.

Lower secondary education lasts three years on average across the OECD member states, ranging from two years in the French Community of Belgium to six years in Lithuania.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 04:15

Duda Belatedly Confirmed That Zelensky Tried To Manipulate Poland Into War With Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Former Polish President Andrzej Duda revealed in an interview in early September that Zelensky tried manipulating his country into war with Russia during November 2022’s Przewodow incident after a then-unknown missile crossed the Ukrainian border and smashed into Poland.

Duda agreed with his interlocutor that Zelensky’s claim that it was a Russian missile amounted to pressure upon Poland to respond accordingly, yet he also said that he wasn’t surprised by Ukraine wanting to drag NATO into war.

In his words, “They've been trying to drag everyone into the war from the very beginning. It's obvious, it's in their interest, and it would be best if they could drag NATO countries into the war. It's obvious they're looking for those who would actively fight on their side against the Russians. This has been happening since day one.”

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, who’s since fled to Poland, claimed back then that the aforesaid view was a “Russian conspiracy theory” and “Russian propaganda”.

To Poland’s credit, it didn’t fall for this trap, which could have sparked a fast-moving sequence of events that might have spiraled into World War III. Some Russian-friendly observers like Scott Ritter saw things differently at the time, however, believing that it was Poland which sought to drag NATO into war. It’s now known that this wasn’t the case, yet the false assumptions about Poland’s intentions at the time still influence some folks’ takes about its current and future policies. Here are five background briefings:

* 16 November 2022: “Ukraine Tried To Trick NATO Into Starting World War III After It Accidentally Bombed Poland”

* 16 November 2022: “Kiev Jumped The Shark After Its Foreign Minister Implied That Biden Is A Russian Propagandist”

* 16 November 2022: “Ukraine Betrayed Poland’s Trust With Its Dangerous Anti-Russian Conspiracy Theory”

* 16 November 2022: “The Top Five Implications Drawn From Ukraine Accidentally Bombing Poland”

* 23 November 2022: “Korybko To Ritter: New Evidence Compels You To Correct Your Conclusion About Poland”

There are five primary takeaways from Duda’s revelation:

1) Ukraine has been desperately attempting “since day one” to turn the special operation into a hot NATO-Russian war;

2) to that end, it’s relied on weaponized conspiracy theories such as its one about the Przewodow incident and provocations like its regular attacks against the Zaporozhyne Nuclear Power Plant;

3) Poland, NATO, and Russia have been aware of this the whole time though;

4) so none of them fell for these traps; but

5) the risk still remains.

All of this is relevant as regards the Alt-Media Community’s perception of Poland. While many might still dislike its overall foreign policy and dismantlement of Red Army monuments, it’s important to be fair in their assessments of its approach towards the Ukrainian Conflict. Poland indisputably sought to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, ergo why it helped sabotage spring 2022’s draft peace treaty and then donated its entire stockpile to Ukraine, but it never planned to get directly involved if that failed.

Duda’s successor Karol Nawrocki, who per the Polish Constitution formulates the country’s foreign policy in cooperation with the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, pledged ahead of the second round not to authorize the deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine.

He isn’t expected to go against his word amidst Poles getting fed up with Ukrainian refugees and this neighboring conflict. The most important takeaway from Duda’s revelation is therefore that Poland won’t be manipulated by Zelensky into war with Russia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 03:30

"Art Must Always Tell The Truth"

Popular artist Banksy created a graffiti mural in London depicting the current state of the UK censorship system using the courts to trample the rights of British citizens...

[SOURCE]

As 'sundance' writes at TheConservativeTreeHouse.com, it did not take long for the authorities to cover the mural and eventually attempt to remove it.

A good illustration of modern Britain. Masked man removes artistic dissent against a Tyrannical State, under the guard of Foreign State Security.pic.twitter.com/Ley9jAIYUW

— Paul Weston (@PWestoff) September 10, 2025

However, what remained of the artwork was the essential core of the truth.

I particularly like the fact the govt turned the CCTV camera, so they can monitor who might visit the scene of the criminal dissent.

Apparently, the British government doesn’t quite see the irony.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 02:45