Centrus Jumps On Deal To Supply Oklo With Domestically-Produced Uranium

Centrus Energy continues to solidify its role as a cornerstone of America's emerging advanced nuclear sector, today announcing a letter of intent with Oklo to provide domestically produced high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for the company's next generation of nuclear reactors, according to a release from the company's website.

Shares the domestic enricher jumped more than 6% this morning. 

Under the proposed multi-year agreement, Centrus will begin supplying HALEU in 2029 to support up to five Oklo Aurora powerhouses, including reactors planned for Oklo's 1.2-gigawatt clean energy campus in Ohio. The fuel is expected to be produced at Centrus' enrichment facility in Pike County, Ohio, highlighting the growing importance of domestic nuclear fuel infrastructure.

 The agreement represents a meaningful milestone for the broader advanced reactor industry. One of the largest challenges facing nuclear developers has been securing reliable access to HALEU, a specialized fuel required by many next-generation reactor designs. With global commercial HALEU production historically concentrated in Russia and China, the development of a U.S.-based supply chain has become a national priority.

Centrus has emerged as the top solution to this challenge. By establishing itself as a domestic source of HALEU, the company is helping address a critical bottleneck that has limited deployment of advanced nuclear technologies across the United States.

The deal is a confirmation of what we said a year ago: in a country starved for domestically-produced HALEU, Centrus will outperform, even though sometimes the market is somewhat obtuse and slow in figuring even the most obvious stuff.

A year later, market starting to get it https://t.co/91bUOLoS1m pic.twitter.com/TvZGJCf0PR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2026

The proposed agreement also reinforces growing confidence in Centrus' production capabilities and strengthens its visibility as advanced reactor developers move closer to commercialization. As demand for clean, reliable baseload power continues to accelerate, Centrus appears increasingly well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of the U.S. nuclear energy ecosystem.

With advanced reactor companies such as Oklo advancing toward deployment and domestic fuel supply becoming an essential national objective, Centrus' role as a leading HALEU supplier could become a significant driver of long-term growth and strategic relevance within the nuclear energy industry.

Centrus President and CEO Amir Vexler commented: “Today’s announcement is an important step toward ensuring reliable HALEU supply for next generation reactors and represents a crucial milestone as we work to restore America’s ability to enrich uranium at scale. By connecting advanced nuclear power generation and customer demand with domestic HALEU production in southern Ohio, this agreement helps establish a foundation for a new U.S. advanced nuclear energy hub.”

Other nuclear stocks are also on the rise, with Energy Fuels up almost 17% and reactor manufacturers NuScale Power and NANO Nuclear Energy up about 3% and 5%, respectively.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 11:00

The Treaty Of Versailles

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday, President Trump signed the US-Iran MoU in Versailles. It’s not a treaty, but the parallel with the one signed by Germany there on June 28, 1919, is notable: post-WW1, French Marshal Foch is widely credited with saying, “This is not a peace. It is an armistice for twenty years,” because he saw it as too lenient on the loser of that war.

‘Bravo’ says Macron after Trump signs Iran MoU at Versailles dinner. ‘Great job’ pic.twitter.com/5nDjGku4xS

— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) June 17, 2026

This MoU is also lenient on Iran, who thinks it won, and again doesn’t look like peace, just an armistice for 20 weeks – which ends two days after the US midterm elections. Indeed, even as Trump was touting the importance of the deal to avoid “economic catastrophe,” he underlined he’ll bomb Iran again if they don’t honor it.

Yet what they honor depends on whose MoU version you read. The 14-point text the US released to CNN differs in important regards from what Bloomberg was running with and the Iranian version:

• Point 1: There is a link to Lebanon but not necessarily one that forces an Israeli withdrawal. The text calls for the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts”, and “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”, which technically a temporary Israeli security presence does not prevent any more than heavily armed Hezbollah --counter to UN resolutions and the government’s proclamations-- does. Regardless, the IDF is so far saying it won’t withdraw.
• Point 5: The US says Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.” Iran says it will charge on day 61, but can that also be read that the passage is for 60 days, which would then need to be extended? The placing of a comma there could be the literal meme ‘NO MORE WAR’ > ‘NO, MORE WAR.’ The text also says Iran “will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran is taking that to mean that it can charge ‘service fees’; yet international law and GCC states may think otherwise when this is discussed.
• Point 8: The two sides “have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA.” That additional clause is key, and while a step back vs. earlier US uranium demands is a clear deliverable else this all falls apart. Is Iran going to blink here?

Trump also thanked China and Russia for remaining “neutral” in the war, adding “it’s OK” for Iran to have some ballistic missiles, as the Wall Street Journal estimates Iran could earn up $60bn from oil revenues ahead. What that’s spent on (reconstruction, Chinese or Russian arms, or shaheed drone factories to use locally and send to Russia, etc.) is also critical.

Understandably, Iran hawks are lamenting this all as a “disaster” or “catastrophe.” Even Bloomberg underlines what was flagged here months ago: if this MoU is a TACO not a can-kicking exercise until November, it will “unravel geopolitics”, the US creating a power vacuum others will try to fill.

That’s as South Korea’s President Lee just asked Trump to solve the North Korea issue… but they already have a nuke, so what do they get given – access to Anthropic AI?

As all is in flux, the US is also working with Europe to again back Ukraine, whose drone tech now means they hold some good cards, even as the EU reopens official communication channels with the Kremlin. It seems likely that US sanctions could soon go back on Russian oil, which would see the energy complex reshuffled again.

In market terms, the IEA is now seeing a gradual Hormuz recovery tipping into a significant 2027 oil surplus, flipping the narrative entirely – unless war restarts in 20 weeks. Most things remain a passenger to that dynamic.

Ironically, but as expected, the market is trading that possible Mou TACO as dollar positive even as it actually undermines the global architecture that holds the dollar up: but since when did FX look at the long term?

In other geoeconomics, as Europe seems set for a sustained trade war vs. China ahead, the G7 agreed to set up a critical minerals alliance platform to cut their reliance on China – which, as explained here before, logically implies trade decoupling downstream too and the emergence of geopolitical trade blocs.

Meanwhile, in a changing world, the Fed under Chair Warsh is ripping treaties up, not signing them. As our US strategist notes, the FOMC left rates unchanged as expected, with an easing bias dropped, but with an unusually short statement. Indeed, Warsh just terminated forward guidance – which is arguably not such a bad idea given what happens in the Middle East is pivotal to what happens to inflation, and central banks have no idea at all about what will transpire there(?)

In cyclical terms, the June Summary of Economic Projections had already revealed that half of the FOMC participants (who submitted a forecast) expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh did not submit his.

More importantly, in structural terms, Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications (is so much needed?); the balance sheet (is so much needed?); improving data (more, better is needed, and Warsh prefers real-time numbers over backwards looking surveys); productivity and jobs (will AI allow for rate cuts?); and inflation frameworks (where things will get even more interesting).

Just as many suspect there is more drama ahead in Hormuz, and that it will never go back to being what it was until recently, the same may be true for the Fed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:40

Accenture Crashes Most On Record As AI Threatens Consulting Demand

Accenture shares crashed by the most on record in premarket trading on a confluence of issues. First, the company's fourth-quarter revenue outlook missed Bloomberg consensus estimates and third-quarter bookings declined, reinforcing investors' belief that consulting demand is declining in the era of AI adoption across corporate America, which is wreaking havoc in the white-collar job market.

The global consulting and technology services company, which helps large corporations and governments with strategy, IT, cloud migration, cybersecurity, and more, guided August-quarter revenue to a range of $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, below the $18.47 billion figure that analysts tracked by Bloomberg were forecasting. Third-quarter bookings fell to $19.3 billion, down from $19.7 billion a year earlier, while revenue rose to $18.7 billion, slightly below estimates. EPS increased 9% to $3.80.

Here's a snapshot of 3Q earnings, courtesy of Bloomberg:

EPS $3.80 vs. $3.49 y/y

Revenue $18.7 billion, +5.6% y/y, estimate $18.76 billion

• Communications, Media & Technology revenue $3.22 billion, +10% y/y, estimate $3.2 billion
• Financial Services revenue $3.49 billion, +6.4% y/y, estimate $3.54 billion
• Product revenue $5.67 billion, +6.1% y/y, estimate $5.67 billion

Health & Public Service revenue $3.85 billion, +1.8% y/y, estimate $3.82 billion

• Resources revenue $2.50 billion, +3.4% y/y, estimate $2.54 billion

Bookings $19.32 billion, -1.9% y/y, estimate $20.66 billion

• Consulting new bookings $10.26 billion, +13% y/y, estimate $9.54 billion
• Managed Services new bookings $9.06 billion, -15% y/y, estimate $11.12 billion

Gross margin 32.8% vs. 32.9% y/y, estimate 32.9%

Free cash flow $3.60 billion, +2.9% y/y

Operating cash flow $3.79 billion, +2.8% y/y, estimate $3.06 billion

Snapshot of 4Q forecast:

Sees revenue $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, estimate $18.47 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees revenue +1% to +5%

Full-Year Forecast:

Sees revenue +3% to +4%, saw +3% to +5%

Sees adjusted EPS $13.78 to $13.90, saw $13.65 to $13.90

Sees effective tax rate 24% to 25%, saw 23.5% to 25.5%

Still sees operating cash flow $11.5 billion to $12.2 billion

Still sees free cash flow $10.8 billion to $11.5 billion

Beyond earnings, one major issue plaguing Accenture is investor confidence in the business model. Morgan Stanley downgraded Accenture to Equal-weight from Overweight and slashed its price target to $177 from $240, arguing that the anticipated boost to IT services spending from artificial intelligence investments has yet to materialize, as enterprises continue to prioritize AI projects over traditional discretionary technology spending.

Crucially, "we are not seeing the budget growth inflection we had previously expected," the analysts wrote.

Morgan Stanley is not the first to sound the alarm on declining IT consulting demand. In March, Jefferies analyst Surinder Thind told clients there was limited evidence of a recovery in customer appetite, directly contradicting management's upbeat commentary.

Accenture shares crashed the most on record, down 16% in the early cash session. 

What goes up must go down. 

Emergence of OpenAI's ChatGPT (news headlines) vs. ACN stock price. 

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts have 17 "Buy" ratings, 12 "Neutral" ratings, and zero "Sell" ratings on the stock. The 12-month average price target is $236.

Thind called the latest earnings disappointing. "Questions around the resiliency of demand in an AI-first world are likely to be amplified," he said, adding, "especially in light of recent advancements in AI models and agentic capabilities."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:10

Both Parents Work Full-Time In Majority Of Families, Census Data Show

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Both parents work full-time in more than half of couples with children under 18, according to newly analyzed data.

Fifty-two percent of couples comprised of a mother and father work full-time jobs as of 2025, according to the Pew Research Center analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau released on June 16.

That percentage is an increase from 46 percent in 2015 and 31 percent in 1975.

Black mothers are still the most likely to be in a couple where both she and the father work, according to an analysis broken down by race. Sixty percent of black mothers are in such a partnership, down slightly from 64 percent in 2000.

Majorities of white, 54 percent, and Asian, 52 percent, women with children are for the first time in couples comprised of two working parents. Hispanic women are still more likely to be in a couple with only one working parent.

Mothers with lower levels of education are the most likely to be in a couple in which the dad works full-time, and the mom is not employed, according to the analysis.

That figure was 30 percent for mothers with, at most, some college education, compared to 21 percent for mothers with bachelor’s degrees and 11 percent for mothers with postgraduate degrees.

Across all couples with minor children, the percentage in which the father works full-time and the mother is not employed declined from 42 percent in 1975 to 23 percent in 2025.

In another 15 percent of couples, the father works full-time and the mother works part-time. In five percent, the father works part-time or is not employed, and the mother has a full-time job. And in the remaining five percent, there is some other arrangement.

Many parents view their family’s financial situation as positive, according to a Pew survey conducted in March, provided the mother works at least part-time. For parents in couples where the dad works full time, and the mother does not have a job, only 19 percent said their financial situation is positive, and 41 percent said it is negative.

Adults in those couples were the most likely to say that the work arrangement was positive for their children’s well-being. Eighty-five percent did. Just 49 percent of parents in couples where both mothers and fathers work full-time answered the same.

Some 52 percent of the respondents also said their job makes it harder to be a good parent, and 45 percent said that being a parent has made it difficult to advance at work.

Additionally, 62 percent of mothers who work full-time expressed frustration with balancing work and family responsibilities, compared with 47 percent of fathers who work full-time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:00

"The Impact was Devastating": Chicago's Cross-Burning Was Set By Liberal, Anti-Trump Protester

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

After the Southern Poverty Law Center scandal of actually funding and encouraging racist protests, it appears that at least one individual has created his own orchestrated racist incident.

In Chicago (where Jussie Smollett committed his infamous racist hoax), a burning cross was denounced by Mayor Brandon Johnson as a sign of the racism in society.

Johnson, however, refused to address the fact that the cross burning was actually the work of an anti-Trump liberal student.

University of Illinois senior Merlin Lu said it was never intended as a racist symbol, but the question is whether it could still be charged as a hate crime.

In posting a reward for the culprit soon after the incident, Rev. Michael Pfleger declared that “this bold rise of racism must be condemned by every race, faith community, and Chicagoan as was done with the swastika and treated as a hate crime.”

It turns out that this was not evidence of the rise of racism but another possible hoax.

Lu bizarrely claimed that he was unaware that a burning cross had racist connotations and insisted that there was no racist message intended.

Others suspected that this was a type of false-flag effort to outrage the left.

Johnson later denounced the incident as a “symbol of hatred is one that we must continue to reject, and I wholeheartedly reject it. I can’t speak to anyone’s motives; I can only speak to the impact, and the impact was devastating.”

It seems curious that Johnson would not “speak to motives” when he knows that this was set by a leftist radical.

The question is whether it is still a hate crime under Illinois law. Under Section 12-7.1, the law states:

(a) A person commits hate crime when, by reason of the actual or perceived race, color, creed, religion, ancestry, gender, sexual orientation, physical or mental disability, citizenship, immigration status, or national origin of another individual or group of individuals, regardless of the existence of any other motivating factor or factors, he or she commits assault, battery, aggravated assault, intimidation, stalking, cyberstalking, misdemeanor theft, criminal trespass to residence, misdemeanor criminal damage to property, criminal trespass to vehicle, criminal trespass to real property, mob action, disorderly conduct, transmission of obscene messages, harassment by telephone, or harassment through electronic communications as these crimes are defined in Sections 12-1, 12-2, 12-3(a), 12-7.3, 12-7.5, 16-1, 19-4, 21-1, 21-2, 21-3, 25-1, 26-1, 26.5-1, 26.5-2, paragraphs (a)(1), (a)(2), and (a)(3) of Section 12-6, and paragraphs (a)(2) and (a)(5) of Section 26.5-3 of this Code, respectively.

The notable language is “regardless of the existence of any other motivating factor or factors.” The inclusion of property damage could allow a charge to be brought.

The case could rekindle the debate over intent for threats. Many professors and pundits on the left have long argued that the standard should be how a message is received rather than how it is intended. That issue arose in the decision in Counterman v. Colorado, 600 U.S. 66 (2023), concerning the standard for the “true threats” exception to the First Amendment. In an opinion written by Justice Elena Kagan, the Court reversed the conviction. While rejecting an “objective” standard, the Court declared that such cases had to be based on evidence of the defendant’s state of mind under a “subjective standard.” Accordingly, the government must prove recklessness, but not necessarily intent: “The State must show that the defendant consciously disregarded a substantial risk that his communications would be viewed as threatening violence.”

Recklessness would be a dangerous standard for the defense of Merlin Liu. He insists that he was entirely clueless about what a burning cross represents in our culture. Yet, if Chicago does not bring a hate crime charge, it could be cited in future cases in suggesting that intent or “motivating factors” do matter in such cases.

I have favored stronger scienter or intent standards in true threat cases. It seems like a hate crime should, at a minimum, also be based on an intent to cause such alarm or fear. That does not mean that Liu’s defense of ignorance will work. However, in my view, prosecutors should have to show more than how others perceive a protest.

Unlike Johnson, the prosecutors and the Court will have to “speak to motivations” before this case is concluded.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:20

Energy Cliff, Supply Chain Shock: The Toxic Cocktail Behind The Urgent Push For An Iran Deal

The U.S.-Iran interim peace deal has been signed, and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz is now beginning. Tanker traffic through the critical waterway is slowly resuming, though a full return to pre-war or near-pre-war energy flows could take months.

But behind the urgency to get the memorandum of understanding deal across the finish line were two uncomfortable realities.

First, President Trump recently met with oil and gas executives, who likely informed the administration that the conflict and the shuttered Hormuz maritime chokepoint were leading to an energy cliff that would materialize by mid-summer.

On Wednesday at the G7 Summit in France, Trump acknowledged the uncomfortable truth that SPRs used to offset lost Gulf energy production were being drained at an alarming rate.

"We run out of reserves in about four weeks," Trump told reporters.

Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

Says it would have been "bedlam" pic.twitter.com/k45MTI8sNs

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2026

The latest Department of Energy data showed Cushing, Oklahoma, stockpiles declined for the eighth straight week, taking inventories to just above 20 million barrels. That's the lowest inventories have been at the storage hub since October 2014, and takes us to what are considered essentially 'tank-bottoms', the point at which the hub is unable to fully operate.

*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'

we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

Second, the physical disruption in global supply chains had begun spreading beyond energy flows and into shipping costs, threatening to transmit the Hormuz crisis into broader goods inflation.

Last month, UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade warned, "Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic." This prompted Lafourcade to re-launch the Global Supply Chain Stress Index.

Earlier this morning, Lafourcade warned in a new note that "supply chain stress spreads to shipping cost" and that "continues to rise."

He continued:

Our Global Supply Chain Stress Index has continued to deteriorate, despite the recent decline in energy prices. In our update mid-May (here), we noted that the index had worsened by roughly 1.2 standard deviations since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Figure 1 below shows the latest June reading, based on weekly data up to last Friday (with missing observations proxied by the prior month's values). The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 2.9 standard deviations—an increase of around 2½ standard deviations since the conflict began—and marks the highest level since May 2022. This reading predates the geopolitical developments of the past few days and so may well end up being a high watermark. But we suspect a sustained improvement across many indicators will likely require a tangible normalization in the flow of global energy shipments, not just a decline in prices driven by expectations of resolution alone.

Our Global Supply Chain Stress Index has After a slow reaction to the conflict, shipping costs are now accelerating The indicator is constructed as the cross‑sectional average of z-scored series—a first-order approximation to the data's first principal component. Figure 2 overleaf shows the contributions over the past four months. The indicator most directly capturing the supply-shock nature of the Hormuz bottleneck is our measure of seaborne oil and gas flows (shown on the right of the figure, with the sign flipped to indicate rising stress). All other components reflect the shock more indirectly. Oil and gas shipping volumes have dropped even more from the immediate post-closure lows, while the volume of other cargo shipping has bounced back somewhat from earlier lows (see here for our latest read on global tracking). Delivery times and air-freight costs deteriorated primarily in March and April, with little additional movement since. Initially, supply chain stress appeared relatively contained and concentrated in these indicators. However, shipping costs now seem to be responding with a lag: after little change in March and April, prices have ramped up noticeably in May and June to date, across all major reporters (Baltic, Harper Petersen, Drewry, and Freightos).ntinued to deteriorate, despite the recent decline in energy prices. In our update mid-May (here), we noted that the index had worsened by roughly 1.2 standard deviations since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Figure 1 below shows the latest June reading, based on weekly data up to last Friday (with missing observations proxied by the prior month's values). The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 2.9 standard deviations—an increase of around 2½ standard deviations since the conflict began—and marks the highest level since May 2022.

This reading predates the geopolitical developments of the past few days and so may well end up being a high watermark. But we suspect a sustained improvement across many indicators will likely require a tangible normalization in the flow of global energy shipments, not just a decline in prices driven by expectations of resolution alone.

If SPRs are drained and supply chain stress keeps rising, the global economy moves from a manageable disruption to a stagflationary shock. That would send energy prices higher, create weaker fuel demand, lead to margin compression for companies, and eventually risk a recession.

The sequence of disasters that could've unfolded:

1. Energy prices reprice violently higher

2. Shipping costs feed into goods inflation

3. Corporate margins get squeezed

4. Consumers get hit

5. Central banks face the stagflation trap

6. Emerging markets falter

7. Global equities shift into recession pricing

These two pressures help explain why the Trump administration moved urgently to secure an MoU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The immediate goal was to normalize tanker flows and avert an energy cliff as SPR buffers came under pressure. The second objective is to stop the Hormuz disruption from spilling deeper into global supply chains, where rising shipping costs, longer transit times, and tighter effective vessel capacity were beginning to transmit the shock beyond energy markets and into the broader global economy.

Professional subscribers can read more about the global supply chain and the Strait of Hormuz on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:00

Continuing Jobless Claims Hit 3-Month-Highs

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell from 230k (4 month highs) to 226k (vs 225k exp) last week - elevated but still within the range of the last four years...

Source: Bloomberg

Pennsylvania and Oregon saw the largest rise in initial claims last week while Ohio and Illinois saw the biggest decline...

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims rose back above 1.8 million Americans - the highest print in 3 months - but still well off cycle highs near 2 million in Q4 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is that while initial claims are rising, they remain low by historical standards and continue to run below year-ago levels, reinforcing the more hawkish 'labor market is resilient' framework introduced yesterday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:36

Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Market Prices In Iran Deal For Yet Another Day

Futures rebounded from the post-FOMC selloff, and oil prices fell as Trump signed the Iran MOU two days early to end the war in the Middle East (in the symbolic Palace of Versailles of all place) and some energy shipments began to transit the Strait of Hormuz. As usual, tech led the parade higher. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.6%, but off overnight session highs, partly unwinding a more than 1% decline after Kevin Warsh signaled the Fed may have to raise interest rates this year to contain inflation; Nasdaq gained 1.3%; pre-market all Mag 7 are higher led by AMZN (+1.2%), META (+1.1%) and NVDA (+1.1%), reversing some of yesterday’s losses. Intel shares jumped more than 8% in premarket trading after Trump said the firm struck a chipmaking deal with Apple (a rehash of previous news but to this Pavolvian market, everything seems to be brand new). Overnight, the biggest headline was that the US/Iran MOU was officially in effect (final deal within 60 days, waiver for Iran to export oil, a $300bn reconstruction fund, terminating all types of sanction, per Axios). Bond yields are lower led by the long-end of the curve as 2y is still anchored by Fed commentary yesterday; 2y and 10y are -1bp and -4bp lower, respectively, the 10Y trading at 4.46%. The USD continues to climb with the DXY adding 53bp this morning. Brent slid 1.4% to around $78.50 a barrel and touched its lowest level since the start of the war while WTI fell -2.6% to $74.78; precious metals are largely flat this morning. US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), May Leading Index (10am) and April TIC flows (4pm)

In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +1%, Meta +0.5%, Tesla +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Microsoft -0.2%, Alphabet -0.5%).

• Apple Inc. (AAPL) is up 0.6% after CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that the iPhone maker plans to raise prices on its products to offset the increasing costs of memory and storage chips.
• SpaceX (SPCX) falls 1.7%, set to extend the previous session’s drop, as it wraps up its first week as a public company following a record-breaking listing.
• Accenture (ACN) tumbles 11% after the IT services company gave a revenue forecast for the fourth quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
• Albemarle Corp. (ALB) is up 1.8% after Citi raised its recommendation to buy from neutral on expected higher lithium prices.
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) rises 4.1% after Barclays raised the recommendation on the company to equal-weight from underweight, citing its push into selling solid-state transformers to data centers.
• Hive (HIVE) is up 15% after its subsidiary BUZZ High Performance Computing announced a partnership with Bell Canada, Cohere and Hypertec to build AI infrastructure in Canada.
• Iren Ltd. (IREN) gains 3.3% as Jefferies initiated coverage of the Bitcoin miner and data center operator with a recommendation of buy on artificial intelligence data center demand.
• Pfizer (PFE) is down 1.6% after the drugmaker said Chief Financial Officer Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on Aug. 15 for a professional opportunity in consumer goods outside the pharmaceutical industry.
• Rumble (RUM) jumps 15% after the online video network platform said it plans to operate two core business units: video platform Rumble and cloud and AI-infrastructure business Quake AI, formerly Northern Data.

Four big June events are now in the rear view mirror — the first FOMC of the Warsh era, an Iran deal, the SpaceX’s IPO, and the first CPI print over 4% in 3 years. And yet, nothing appears able to dent the ongoing market meltup which is driven entirely by massive debt-funded capex spending into a handful of chip stocks.  

Ahead of the last trading day of the week for US markets, the peace deal is reducing the risk of further energy-supply disruptions. Stocks have largely shrugged off the turmoil and continued to notch record highs on the back of relentless enthusiasm for AI. Equity markets have come through the tests posed by the debut of SpaceX, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair and the US-Iran peace deal fairly unscathed, said Raphael Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau.

“With the MOU now signed, there’s reason to believe that we may be close to or past peak inflation,” Thuin said. “The market will be able to concentrate on earnings again, like for Micron next week.”

Bond investors, however, face the prospect of lingering risks that may keep the higher-for-longer rates narrative intact. Even though US gasoline prices have dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, energy costs have only been one factor in keeping inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s target.

US gasoline prices dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, providing relief to consumers after global supply disruption sent fuel costs soaring. In contrast, inflation pressures are likely to hit people in the pocket if they want to buy a new iPhone later this year, with Apple’s Tim Cook telling the Wall Street Journal that the company plans to raise prices to offset surging memory and storage chip costs

Despite lower oil prices, front-end Treasury yields remained at their highest level since February 2025, with traders cementing bets for a September US rate hike. In the UK, the yield on two-year gilts jumped six basis points to 4.2%, while the Bank of England kept guidance that it “stands ready to act” on inflation and left its key rate unchanged. The dollar extended gains.

A quick look back at the Fed decision: Wednesday’s Fed decision marked the fourth consecutive meeting in which policymakers left rates unchanged. Officials described economic growth as “solid” and highlighted strong productivity gains and capital investment, while making clear that inflation has become a greater concern than labor-market weakness. Warsh has been critical of over-communication and poor forecasting by the Fed, and the new regime is moving away from explicit forward guidance - investors can no longer rely on central bank signals and will have to price in policy uncertainty. The S&P 500 has historically faced challenges following changes in leadership at the Fed.  

“Half the committee is expecting rate hikes this year, which is a real shot across the bow at the market,” said Bob Michele, chief investment officer and global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. “I think they’re getting ready for rate hikes.”

As for SpaceX, the company is seemingly sucking retail investors back into equities, flows into US equity ETFs have risen rapidly, notching the second highest-ever monthly flow, Bloomberg notes. Based on the price target of an initiation of coverage by Arete analyst Andrew Beale, SpaceX gets an implied $5.3 trillion valuation by end of 2027.

European stocks are missing out on the rally, with the Stoxx 600 down by 0.4%, dragged lower by the mining and autos sectors. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Edenred shares soar as much 18%, hitting their highest level since early November, after the payment solutions firm confirmed it has been approached by investment funds in the wake of a report of takeover interest from BC Partners
• Generali shares rose as much as 3.3%, the most in 14 months, after newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore reported that UniCredit has informally proposed exchanging a 10% stake held by the Del Vecchio family holding Delfin in the insurer with its own shares
• Oxford Instruments rises as much as 4.4% as Peel Hunt upgrades to buy from add and installs a new Street-high price target, based on durability of growth and scope for further operating leverage
• Man Group shares rise as much as 3.4% to the highest since 2011 as BNP Paribas analysts upgrade their rating on the hedge fund manager to outperform from neutral and raise their target price
• Informa shares rise as much as 3% as Morgan Stanley said the company has navigated the first five months of its financial year well, with strong results from its Live B2B Events and Academic Markets units
• SSP advances as much as 5.1%, to the highest in eight weeks, after Davy initiates on the airport-focused food and beverage outlet operator with an outperform recommendation and 225p price target
• Skistar climbs as much as 11%, the most since March 2025, after reporting third-quarter results which DNB Carnegie says show good cost mitigation and decent future pre-bookings
• Tesco shares fall as much as 3.7% to their lowest level in two weeks after the UK’s biggest supermarket reported earnings which missed analyst expectations for like-for-like sales
• Carrefour drops as much as 6.6% as JPMorgan places the French supermarket operator on a negative catalyst watch, saying first-half results on July 23 “might turn out to be a downgrade event”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as oil prices eased after President Donald Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% to set an intraday record, boosted by gains in tech names including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. South Korea led advances in the region, with shares also rising in Taiwan and Japan. Crude prices continued to fall after Trump said a memorandum of understanding with Iran has taken effect, helping to ease inflation concerns for energy importing countries and offsetting hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. A gauge of tech shares in Asia rose to a new high.Elsewhere in Asia, central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines — two economies hit hard by the sharp increase in global oil prices following the Iran war — both hiked their policy rates on Thursday. Indonesian stocks held losses, while Philippine shares pared gains.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reverses an earlier decline, sending the euro below $1.15. The BOE, Switzerland, and Norway’s central banks all held rates. 

In rates, treasuries curve-flattening sparked by Wednesday’s hawkish Fed meeting extends as 2-year rises back toward highest levels since February 2025 — and within 25bp of the 10-year — while 30-year is more than 6bp lower on the day. Treasury 2-year is more than 2bps cheaper on the day while 10-year is nearly 3bp richer near 4.46% after touching 4.44% during London morning. US 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are 5bp and 6bp tighter respectively, after narrowing 8bp and 11bp to multi-month lows Wednesday. UK front-end underperforms, holding losses after Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging.” UK 2-year, 6bp cheaper on the day, had muted reaction to Bank of England policy announcement decided by 7-2 vote.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 2%, off session lows after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released details on the text of the memorandum of understanding ending US attacks. Brent slid 1.4% to around $78.50 a barrel and touched its lowest level since the start of the war as three laden oil vessels controlled by Saudi Arabia’s state tanker giant switched on their signals in the Gulf of Oman after being stuck inside the Persian Gulf since the conflict began. 

US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), May Leading Index (10am) and April TIC flows (4pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• An impending wave of oil that’s been trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz is set to be unleashed on Asia, suddenly swamping a region that had managed to make up for lost supply in recent weeks. BBG
• The average price of U.S. gasoline fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time in months, after Iran and the United States signed a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to a fraction of a penny below $4, down from $4.03 the day before, according to the AAA motor club. NYT
• The MSCI China Index is on the cusp of a bear market, pressured by weakness in tech and consumer stocks. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags on the day. BBG
• The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging.” Two of the nine policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent inflation: BBG
• The SNB left its key rate at zero as expected and said it retained its heightened readiness to sell the franc. Separately, the Swiss government trimmed its growth predictions for 2026 and next year, while slightly raising its inflation outlook. BBG
• Brussels has opened communication channels with the Kremlin in recent weeks to scope out the potential for talks to end the war in Ukraine, as European capitals debate whether to engage directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. FT
• Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected, but said it would likely be necessary to hike at one of the forthcoming meetings. Norges Bank
• The U.K.’s unemployment rate inched down in the three months through April while wage growth remained flat, with continued weakness in the labor market reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold. WSJ
• Microsoft Corp. has built a big business selling AI models to Chinese companies despite the growing rivalry between the US and China over artificial intelligence. ByteDance Ltd. has generally been Microsoft’s biggest AI customer in recent years, largely using OpenAI models, and is on track to spend more than $1 billion a year on Microsoft AI and cloud services. BBG
• U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Thursday that Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and manufacture its ‌chips in the United States. RTRS

Iran Headlines

• Technical talks between the US and Iran will be held in Zurich on Friday, Al Hadath reported citing sources. Talks will include the legal aspects related to lifting Iranian sanctions, the issue of frozen funds and the Iranian nuclear file. Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia will also attend the talks. An unannounced negotiation session will discuss issues related to Lebanon and Hezbollah.
• The fifth round of US-Iran negotiations will discuss Israel's withdrawal along with a timetable for the experimental zone, Al Hadath reported citing a Lebanese source. The source added that the US-Iranian agreement will intensify pressure on Israel to gradually withdraw and that there will be no retreat from restricting weapons to the state and deploying the army in the south. Lebanon is proceeding with direct negotiations with Israel.
• Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed that the US and Iran will meet on Friday for initial talks on MoU execution.
• The Swiss government, following the Iranian commentary, said the plan as it stands is still for the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar to meet on Friday in Switzerland to commence talks.
• US War Secretary Hegseth said they are to review where the right place for basing is, when the Strait of Hormuz opens and are prepared to resume strikes and blockade if Iran does not comply with MoU.
• US official said the Iran MoU was signed digitally on Sunday by US VP Vance and Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf, which was witnessed by US President Trump, while the US official said Iran MoU was signed on Wednesday by US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.
• US official says that Iran is to arrange safe, no-charge passage through Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, according to CNBC.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the MoU between the US and Iran was decided to be signed digitally, while the plan for negotiating teams in Geneva remains in place, but there will be no signing ceremony in Switzerland. Baghaei stated that the 60-day period had started and that Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments, while he also commented that the US has begun lifting the blockade on Iranian ships and that no enriched nuclear material will be sent abroad, and the dilution of nuclear material remains an option. Furthermore, he said Iran will reciprocate if the US fails to honour commitments, and that Iran is to charge fees for Strait of Hormuz safety services, as well as stated that Iran and Oman are to manage the Strait of Hormuz security, and noted that Switzerland talks with the US are not yet certain.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments. The spokesman also said that the 60-day period starts today, according to the text.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, but this does not mean acting against international laws or maritime navigation, while he added that payment for services through the Strait of Hormuz has been established in the MoU and that USD 300bln has been allocated to be invested in Iran, part of which will be spent on reconstruction. Furthermore, he said Iran's action is contingent on US compliance, with Iran to pursue action-for-action policy, as well as separately commented that Tehran can target ships entering Hormuz if needed, and that Tehran has sovereign rights to charge Hormuz tolls.
• Source on Telegram posted that several IRGC boats were engaged in unspecified activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and that a US ship broadcast a warning message in Persian to tell them to cease operations and return to port, or else the US Navy would attack them.
• An Israeli official said Israel has no intention of backing down on its positions and are holding stubborn negotiations with the US over its presence in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli military operations reportedly continue in Lebanon despite the MoU, while Israel opposes Lebanon ceasefire terms in the US-Iran agreement, according to Al Jazeera.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region reflected on recent key events, including the hawkish FOMC and Fed chair Warsh's first presser, in which the Fed kept rates unchanged, removed forward guidance, emphasised price stability, and provided hawkish dot plots. This triggered selling in stocks, treasuries and gold, while it boosted the dollar and yields, with money markets now fully pricing in an October hike. Nonetheless, some of the moves have since been pared, to varying degrees, as oil prices gradually declined following the announcement that the US and Iran have signed the MoU for ending the war, which is now in effect, but with the planned talks on Friday in Switzerland, said to not yet be certain. ASX 200 was subdued with most sectors in the red and the declines were led by tech and miners.
Nikkei 225 extended on record highs to surpass the 71,000 level as manufacturers benefited from lower oil prices and optimism of the reopening of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. KOSPI rallied and breached the 9,000 level for the first time amid strength in Samsung and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with underperformance in Hong Kong as the hawkish FOMC and increased prospects of a rate hike this year, pressured the local benchmark, given that any rate hike in the US would force the HKMA to move in lockstep with the Fed to defend the USD/HKD peg.

Top Asian News

• Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara said the Japanese government is monitoring FX markets closely and will respond to FX moves as needed.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.5%) start Thursday's session on a mixed footing despite the US and Iranian presidents digitally signing the MoU. Germany's DAX 40 (+0.1%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE 100 (-0.8%) is the laggard as multiple companies trade ex-dividends. European sectors highlight a negative bias. Technology (+0.3%), Industrial Goods & Services (+0.6%) and Telecoms (+0.1%) are the only sectors in the green. To the bottom lies Optimised Personal Care (-1.8%), Basic Resources (-1.9%), and Autos (-1.3%).

Top European News

• Germany's Ifo cut its German economic growth forecast for 2027 to 0.8% (prev. exp. 1.2%). Inflation expected at 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2027.
• Swiss Government cuts its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.0%) and 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% (prev. 1.7%, long-term avg. 1.8%).

FX

• G10s were initially mixed against a lacklustre USD. However, as the morning progressed, the Dollar found some strength and surpassed the highs made post-FOMC; today’s peak is at 100.63. USD/JPY aggressively sold off earlier in the session from 160.80 to 160.48 but has since pared entirely.
• GBP was initially flat, but now posts modest losses against the USD. The BoE announcement is due today, where the MPC is widely expected to keep rates on hold in a 7-2/8-1 vote split as recent data and energy moderation support the narrative that bank rate is restrictive. With markets assigning a 95% probability of no-change today, attention will be on the vote split. While consensus is for 7-2/8-1, hawkish dissent from Chief Economist Pill and potentially one or two more policymakers remains possible, and would likely spur a hawkish reaction. In addition to the BoE, GBP will also digest results of the Makerfield by-election which will likely see Labour candidate Burnham emerge as the winner, and challenge incumbent Starmer.
• Norges Bank was broadly as expected with a fleeting kneejerk lower in NOK, the unwinding of tightening bets by c. 15% of market participants. The 2026 core CPI view was maintained and the 2027 one was trimmed modestly, as expected, while forecasts and commentary still show that inflation is “too high” and the Governor outlined that new information shows “inflation pressures are slightly stronger than we had anticipated earlier”. As such, the Norges Bank points to tightening ahead, roughly in line with market expectations. EUR/NOK +0.3%.
• SNB kept rates unchanged in a mostly as-expected meeting. EUR/CHF is firmer today, potentially surrounding the fact that commentary around energy/raw materials suggests that the new forecasts do not account for the moderation in energy seen recently; over the medium term, sparking a return to concerns around inflation being too low in Switzerland. As such, EUR/CHF -0.2%.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with price action lacklustre since the European cash open. It appears that fixed benchmarks are taking a breather following this week’s hefty declines in yields, which comes amidst sustained pressure in the energy complex. On the geopolitical front, US-Iran have signed the MoU, which means the Strait of Hormuz is theoretically open for ships to pass through, whilst the US blockade will also be lifted.
• USTs (-2 ticks) trades within a 109-09+ to 109-20+ range, and well off the lows seen overnight, which stemmed from a hawkish Fed on Wednesday. A full recap can be found on the headline feed, but in brief, the unchanged policy was accompanied by hawkish dot plots and the removal of the easing bias. From a yield perspective, the US 2s10s curve is flatter post-Fed, and currently holding around 27.5bps, a level not seen since Liberation Day (2nd Apr 2025). This has unsurprisingly been led by the short-end, following the hawkish Fed. However, should inflation begin to ease later this year, there is some chance that the spread begins to widen once again, with short-end yields reflecting a less hawkish Fed. The long end may also be affected, with focus on Chair Warsh announcing a dedicated task force to review the Bank’s balance sheet. Any hints of an acceleration of the roll-off would undoubtedly lead to a considerably steeper curve.
• Bunds (-9 ticks) and Gilts (U/C) trade in line with peers. Focusing on UK paper, traders will await the BoE this afternoon and then the start of the Makerfield by-election. In brief, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.75%, with a mixed vote split. Some see in a range of 8-1 to 6-3. Thereafter, attention shifts to domestic politics, whereby a Burnham victory could see him launch a leadership challenge; for reference, he is viewed as the worst candidate for Gilts. There is a full preview in the Research Suite for those interested.
• France sells EUR 13.999bln vs exp. EUR 12-14bln 2.40% 2029, 3.25% 2032, 2.00% 2032 and 3.00% 2034 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.83bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 3.00% 2033, 3.40% 2036 and 4.90% 2040 Bono.

Commodities

• Crude futures are softer, with WTI Aug'26 slipping below the USD 75/bbl mark (USD 73.42-75.75/bbl range) while Brent Aug'26 oscillates around a USD 78/bbl handle (USD 77.10-79.06/bbl band). US and Iranian leaders signed the MoU digitally, which has weighed on the energy complex. The deal allows for the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports and possible access to a USD 300bln development programme, backed by sanctions waivers and unfreezing overseas funds. In exchange, Iran will never produce nuclear weapons. The MoU also confirmed earlier reporting that Iran's nuclear file will be deferred to talks for 60 days.
• More recently, reporting by Al Hadath noted technical talks between the US and Iran will begin in Zurich on Friday, in which the legal aspects related to lifting Iranian sanctions, the issue of frozen funds and the Iranian nuclear file will be discussed. Attention remains on whether Israel will back away from fighting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. An Israeli official said that Israel has no intention of backing down on its positions and is holding stubborn negotiations with the US over its presence in southern Lebanon. However, energy benchmarks were unreactive following those comments.
• Spot gold has slightly pared back Wednesday's losses which were driven by a hawkish Fed meeting. After dipping to a trough of USD 4219/oz yesterday, the yellow metal ventured higher throughout the Asia-Pac session and reached USD 4330/oz at best this morning.
• 3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 13.67k/t post-FOMC. In brief, the Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, however, the SEP highlighted a hawkish bias. 3M LME Copper has since traded rangebound, holding in a USD 13.67k-13.78k/t band.
• Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries CEO said 89% of damaged petrochemical units returned to production, and the process of redesigning and strengthening production capacity is underway, ISNA reported.
• Three Saudi Arabian-flagged supertankers laden with a combined 6mln barrels of crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to shipping data.
• China's State Planner said effective at midnight June 18th, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be cut by CNY 515/t and CNY 495/t, respectively.

Central Banks

• The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75%, as expected, as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging,” Two of the nine policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent inflation. The committee lowered its estimate of peak inflation to 3.25% in the fourth quarter of this year, below the 3.6% it had projected in April.
• The SNB held rates unchanged at 0.00%, as expected. The Bank stated that the readiness to intervene in FX is higher and that monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability. On inflation, the Bank stated that medium-term inflationary pressure, however, is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment.
• SNB Chairman Schlegel said that monetary policy continues to have an expansionary effect. Geopolitical uncertainty remains, risks of strong upward pressure on the CHF remains. "If necessary, we therefore have an increased willingness to intervene..." in FX.
• The Norges Bank held rates unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. The Bank stated that it will likely be necessary to raise the policy rate further at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings. Governor Bache stated in the release that inflation is too high and that new information indicates that inflation pressures are slightly stronger than we had anticipated earlier. The Bank's MPR was also revised higher, forecasting just above 4.5% at the end of 2026.

Ukraine geopol

• Russia's Defence Ministry said 555 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian areas overnight, according to IFX.
• Russia attacked Kyiv with missiles and explosions heard in the capital, while it was separately reported that several Moscow airports have halted flights and Moscow's mayor announced that drones hit an oil refinery in a massive attack, according to TASS.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun 13 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 229k
• 8:30 am: Jun Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 10, prior -0.4
• 8:30 am: Jun 6 Continuing Claims, est. 1789k, prior 1795k
• 10:00 am: May Leading Index, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 4:00 pm: Apr Total Net TIC Flows, prior 150.7b
• 4:00 pm: Apr Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 81.3b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Kevin Warsh’s first appearance as Fed Chair yesterday proved to be a momentous one, with a hawkish dot plot and Warsh’s inflation-fighting rhetoric leaving a sense that rate hikes are firmly under consideration. This shift led investors to fully price in a Fed hike by October, with the repricing weighing on risk assets and sending the S&P 500 -1.21% lower. However, futures are erasing most of this decline overnight following news yesterday evening that US and Iranian leaders signed an MoU to end the war.

Starting with the Fed, while the FOMC held rates steady for the fourth meeting in a row, the updated dot plot saw nine of eighteen participants pencil in at least one hike by year-end, and six expecting two hikes or more. A much-shortened post-meeting statement not only dropped the earlier dovish-leaning forward guidance but also included an unambiguous commitment to “deliver price stability”. Warsh then focused on inflation-fighting credibility in his press conference. At the outset he acknowledged the now 5-year-long upside miss on inflation, before repeatedly noting the importance of the Fed delivering on its “price stability” mandate. So, while the new Chair eschewed any policy guidance, including by not submitting his own forecast to the dot plot, he did not push back against the hawkish dot plot signal and did not lean into any potential dovish arguments. Separately, Warsh announced the establishment of task forces in five areas, including communications and the Fed balance sheet.

In all, the meeting left an undeniably more hawkish Fed tone. While our US economists maintain their baseline view that the Fed is likely to keep rates steady, they note that a Fed that does not rely on forward guidance might prove to be nimbler, setting up the potential for earlier rate hikes than anticipated. 

That shifting Fed rhetoric led to a dramatic fed funds repricing, with chances of a September hike rising from 36% to 80% by yesterday’s close and 38bps of hikes being priced in by year-end (+17.2bps on the day). In turn, 2yr Treasury yields (+13.1bps) saw their largest increase in over a year to a 15-month high of 4.19%. However, the 10yr yield was up by a more moderate +4.9bps while 30yr yields actually ended the day -1.2bps lower. That marked the sharpest daily flattening in the Treasury curve since April 9 last year, when Trump paused the Liberation Day tariffs following a sell-off in Treasuries.

The sharp Fed repricing weighed on risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-1.21%) and the NASDAQ (-1.34%) sliding, having been little changed pre-FOMC. The Mag-7 (-2.82%) led the decline, but the losses were broad as the S&P 500 saw the most daily decliners (429) so far this year. The aggregate decline would have been even worse were it not for the Philly semiconductor index (+1.38%) recovering after Wednesday’s losses. The rates repricing also weighed on assets such as gold (-1.71%) and Bitcoin (-2.15%). On the other hand, the dollar (+0.55%) gained against all G10 currencies.

However, this sell off has partially reversed overnight following news shortly after the US close that the Presidents of the US and Iran had electronically signed an interim deal to end hostilities, with this MoU coming into effect. The signing had initially been expected on Friday, but Axios reported earlier yesterday that this may be brought forward. According to reports, the 14-point MoU foresees a rapid re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with an extendable 60-day period to negotiate a final deal that would cover nuclear issues and broad sanctions relief. The deal also envisages a $300bn fund for the "reconstruction and economic development" of Iran, though Trump stressed yesterday that the US will not be investing in Iran and that Iran would benefit only if it “behaves”. Following the MoU signing, Brent crude is -1.85% lower at $78.08/bbl as I type, more than reversing a +0.75% rise yesterday.

This has led to a positive backdrop for major Asian markets this morning. The Nikkei (+1.82%) and the KOSPI (+1.87%) are leading the gains and pushing to new highs, supported by strong advances in semiconductor stocks. Elsewhere, China’s CSI (+0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.37%) are mixed, while the Hang Seng (-1.70%) is underperforming. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.51%) is trading a little lower. Outside Asia, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.70%) and Nasdaq (+1.09%) are recovering most of Wednesday’s losses, but those on the STOXX 50 (-0.60%) are catching down to the earlier decline on Wall Street. Meanwhile, 10yr Treasury yields are down -3.9bps to 4.45% as I type.
In other corners of the market, the Japanese yen is largely unchanged, after falling -0.14% yesterday to a post-2024 low of 160.65 against the dollar. However, that decline was smaller than for other G10 currencies, with the restrained moves coming as the yen reached levels that triggered FX intervention back in late April.

Earlier yesterday, European equities advanced for a second day amidst optimism over the US-Iran deal. The Stoxx 600 (+0.52%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.31%) reached fresh highs, while the DAX (+0.10%) and FTSE 100 (+0.14%) made smaller advances. European bonds were mixed, with 10yr yields on bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (+0.3bps), BTPs (-0.7bps) little changed, while front-end yields moved slightly higher, with those on 2yr bunds up +2.1bps. Investors priced 32bps of ECB hikes by year end (+0.7bps yesterday), with ECB’s Simkus saying he expects “at least one more” rate hike by the ECB and that it’s important to cap inflation expectations.

Gilts were the notable outperformer in the rates space as investors looked forward to today’s Makerfield by-election, with the 10yr yield down -3.7bps to 4.7%. Greater Manchester's Mayor Andy Burnham is standing for the governing Labour Party and is widely expected to win, with results of the by-election expected in the early hours UK time tomorrow. This election could have important implications for markets as Burnham has said he'd stand in a leadership contest to replace incumbent UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer, with Polymarket now pricing a 77% likelihood of Burnham becoming PM by year-end. Burnham has said in the past that Britain shouldn't be "in hock" to the bond markets and suggested looser fiscal policies. However, Burnham has since committed to keeping the fiscal rules of the current government, leading investors to reduce the risk premium that had emerged in gilts and pound sterling.

Otherwise in the UK, the other main event today will be the BoE decision. Investors widely except the central bank to keep rates unchanged, with attention more focused on the vote split (our economists expect 7-2), and any evolution in guidance. This has come against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation, although yesterday’s dovish inflation print for May should boost the MPC’s confidence to buy more time. The print saw headline (+2.8% y/y vs +3.0% y/y expected) and core CPI (+2.6% y/y vs +2.7% y/y) miss expectations, though services (+3.7% y/y vs +3.6% y/y) fell in line with forecasts.

Reviewing yesterday’s other data, we saw a beat for US retail sales in May, with headline retail sales up +0.9% m/m (vs +0.6% m/m expected) and with retail control rising +0.7% m/m (vs +0.4% expected). With core goods CPI having eased in May, the beat for retail control was a real one rather than just due to higher prices.

Finally, rounding off yesterday’s central bank news, Sweden’s Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected, but raised its policy rate forecast for year-end up 5bps to 1.82%.

To the day ahead now, in addition to the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank will also hold their policy decisions. A slate of second-tier data releases includes the US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May leading index, initial jobless claims, UK unemployment rate, Italy April current account balance and Eurozone April construction output. Finally, today will see the start of the European Council summit (through June 19). 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:28

Speculation About A SpaceX–Tesla Merger Is Already Growing

SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO has fueled speculation that Elon Musk could take an even bigger step: merging SpaceX with Tesla to create a roughly $4 trillion technology conglomerate spanning rockets, AI, satellites, electric vehicles, robotics, energy, and social media, according to a new report from the New York Times. 

The idea has gained traction among investors, analysts, and even SpaceX executives. Tesla and SpaceX already share personnel, collaborate on major projects, and have business ties through AI development, data centers, batteries, and vehicle sales.

Because Musk controls SpaceX and is Tesla’s largest shareholder, any merger would effectively be a deal with himself, raising concerns about conflicts of interest and shareholder lawsuits. However, legal experts say Texas corporate law—where both companies are now incorporated—makes such challenges difficult. Shareholders generally need to own at least 3% of a company’s stock to sue, a threshold that would require roughly $45 billion in Tesla shares.

The Times notes that approval would still require support from two-thirds of Tesla shareholders. Musk controls about 20% of Tesla’s voting power, and many investors have historically backed his initiatives. Tesla’s board has also frequently aligned with Musk, while SpaceX recently added longtime Musk associate Roelof Botha to its board.

Supporters argue a merger could unlock significant synergies. Tesla’s expertise in chips, AI, and data-center construction could complement SpaceX’s ambitions in orbital infrastructure, satellite communications, and space-based computing. Ark Invest, which owns shares in both companies, has said the combination makes strategic sense, though it would prefer Tesla’s self-driving taxi business to mature first.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has acknowledged potential benefits, saying a merger could simplify Musk’s responsibilities and noting clear overlaps between the companies’ futures: “There’s no question that there are synergies between Tesla and SpaceX in our futures.”

Opponents could challenge the deal through securities-fraud claims, antitrust scrutiny, or national-security concerns, particularly given the companies’ combined presence in AI, robotics, communications, and space technology. Still, experts believe regulators would face significant hurdles, especially if the combined company continued to perform well.

“As long as he keeps running the business well and the stock price keeps going up, that is a pretty good bar to bringing a securities fraud suit,” said James Spindler, a professor of corporate law at the University of Texas School of Law.

Ultimately, the greatest obstacle may be financial rather than legal. As one corporate-governance expert noted, investors tend to support ambitious deals when markets are rising and shareholders are making money.

Charles Elson, the founding director of the Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware told The New York Times that Musk “has got this cheering section who will follow him to the gates of Hades or gates of heaven, wherever he leads them.” 

“Basically he’s gotten to the point where he can do almost anything he wishes...” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:15

Congress Reaches Deal On Housing Bill With CBDC Ban Until 2030

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via Cointelegraph, reviewed by Felix Ng.

The US House and Senate have reached a deal to move forward with a housing bill that includes a ban on the Federal Reserve creating a central bank digital currency (CBDC) until 2030.

A bipartisan group of House and Senate leaders released an updated version of the 21st Century Road to Housing Act on Tuesday, which aims to address housing affordability and bans institutional investors from buying existing single-family homes to rent out.

The bill has included a CBDC ban since the Senate passed it in March. The House also passed its version of the bill with strong support in May, but the House and Senate disagreed on some aspects. The Senate has now added further amendments that will be put before the House for a final vote.

The bill is likely to pass quickly and would hand a win to Republicans who have tried to pass a CBDC ban for years, as earlier standalone bills had stalled in Congress. Crypto advocates have long criticized CBDCs, which they see as an attempt by governments to repurpose crypto technology to a centrally-controlled asset.

The deal also means Congress can focus on passing other legislation before the August recess and the November midterm elections, in particular, the crypto-regulating CLARITY Act that many lawmakers have been pushing to advance.

House Republican leaders plan to put the bill up for a vote after the House returns from recess on June 23, two people familiar with the plan told Politico.

The housing bill includes language that says the Federal Reserve may not, directly or indirectly, “issue or create a central bank digital currency or any digital asset that is substantially similar to a central bank digital currency.”

It adds the clause will expire on Dec. 31, 2030, and creates a carveout for crypto stablecoins, or “dollar-denominated currency that is open, permissionless, and private.”

The clause revives much of the language from Republican Representative Tom Emmer’s Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which was introduced in June 2025, passed by the House the next month, but was never picked up in the Senate.

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order in January 2025 banning federal agencies from all work related to CBDCs, saying they threatened “the stability of the financial system, individual privacy, and the sovereignty of the United States.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:05

"The Situation Has Become Unsustainable": Apple To Hike Prices To Offset Soaring Memory Costs

Up until now, Americans primarily hated the flood of data centers popping up around the country like mushrooms (at least those that haven't been canceled or delayed due to regulatory pushback, lack of electricity or outright hostility) because of surging electricity prices and the rising tide of unemployment as chabots gradually make America's white collar workers obsolete. Now they can add surging consumer price inflation to the list of reasons to hate data centers, whose ravenous demand for memory has sent prices to record highs.

According to the WSJ, Apple plans to raise prices on its products to offset the surging costs of memory and storage chips, CEO Tim Cook said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

“Unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable,” he said. “We’re doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable.”

Cook declined to offer details on the timing or scale of the planned price increases, nor which products would be affected. Apple’s next major product launch is likely to be in September when it releases the iPhone 18 lineup, expected to include a new foldable iPhone. 

Price increases, especially for Macs and iPads, could come sooner. Apple - which is only the first major consumer electronics company to succumb to surging input prices and pass them through to consumers - raised the starting price of the Mac Mini last month in between launch events.

Skyrocketing demand for memory and storage chips from artificial-intelligence companies has pushed up their cost so much that Apple would have to raise device prices substantially to maintain its profit margins. Passing the higher cost on to consumers while maintaining its profit margin would add about $270 to the price of the next iPhone Pro model, or a price increase of more than 20% estimates research firm TechInsights.

While Apple doesn’t report the gross profit margins on individual products, the TechInsights research suggests the margin on the $1,099 iPhone 17 Pro was a tidy 47%. To maintain that profit margin for the iPhone 18 Pro, based on estimated costs, the company would have to charge $1,371. Because the company likes standardized pricing, the starting price tag would more likely be $1,299, yielding a 44% gross profit. 

And this calculation doesn’t account for a potential new camera system that will also cost Apple about 50% more than previous models, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In that case, following the same math, Apple could set the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,399—or higher.

A full breakdown of the math behind the increase can be found in this WSJ article. 

Source: WSJ

While chips have emerged as the key bottlenecks for agentic-focused data centers, even more so than GPUs/CPUs, the resulting price surge has prompted manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix to focus production on high end HBM products, while shrinking supply for more modest DRAM products which however are used in virtually every modern product; chips for memory and storage are key components inside most computing devices, including smartphones, laptops, game consoles, medical equipment and even cars. But with AI servers gobbling up rapidly increasing volumes of those chips - with little to none price discrimination since it is the latest batch of bondholders who ends up footing the bill - even a company as rich and powerful as Apple is struggling to secure supply.

Since last year, when Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon began announcing big increases in their capital spending budgets, the prices for memory and storage chips have both quadrupled. TechInsights expects both prices to continue increasing into 2027, unless a flood of Chinese chips hits the market .

Memory, also called DRAM, and storage, also called NAND, are like elements of a mid-20th-century office: The memory is a desk that holds all the papers a worker needs to perform a task, while storage is the filing cabinet that holds everything else. Smartphones use DRAM memory to run apps currently in use; they use NAND storage to file away photos and videos, for example. And since both products were (and are) a pure commodity, there were are substitute makers in the Western world besides the big memory companies. 

Cook said prices for memory and storage are both issues for the company, though he focused on the DRAM market in particular, calling out the increased allocations going to so-called high-bandwidth memory that is used for AI servers.

“There’s less supply at a time when consumers want devices and the memory guys are passing along huge price increases,” said Cook. “We definitely need memory pricing and supply to return to reasonable levels for consumer products. That’s the bottom line.”

Three companies dominate the market for DRAM memory: Samsung and SK Hynix in South Korea, and Micron in the U.S. Makers of NAND storage include those three companies as well as Kioxia and Sandisk. Their stock prices, along with their profits, have exploded over the past twelve months: Micron and SK Hynix shares have risen more than 800% while Kioxia and Sandisk have risen 4,600%.

Seeing the unprecedented demand, memory companies are building more factories: Morgan Stanley forecasts that production capacity for DRAM wafers, the silicon discs on which chips are patterned, will grow 30% by 2027. Yet as suppliers prioritize the specialized AI memory, wafers for consumer tech will fall up to 15% short of demand, Morgan Stanley estimates, although the bank may be conflicted due to its substantial exposure to various companies in the AI ecosystem, which would be terribly vexed if Morgan Stanley were to reach a different conclusion (like, for example, that China - that great commodity crushed - is coming online with massive output in the coming months which will send prices for at least baselines DRAM and NAND sharply lower).

While China has national champion companies in memory and storage, but due to national-security rules, American companies would likely require licenses to work with them. When asked if those restrictions should be loosened, Cook said: “I think everything needs to be on the table,” adding, “I think we should look at all supply.”

He is right: as we showed recently, chips and memory have emerged as one of the biggest drivers of wholesale inflation, and now that it is being passed on to consumers, it is only a matter of time before the inflation-averse White House starts making very loud noises, demanding an artificial limit on how high memory prices can rise.

Apple is late to the party: Companies that make PCs, game consoles, smartphones and more have already raised prices, including Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Nintendo. A consortium of industry associations recently sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick complaining about the overallocation of memory to AI buyers and asking for help to increase supply.

Morgan Stanley estimates a 15% bump for prices of smartphones and PCs in the U.S. this year. This price hike will have a limited impact on the consumer price index, which has only a small weighting for such devices. Yet any price increase on the popular iPhone will immediately grab Washington’s attention. 

Compounding the issue is Apple’s need for additional DRAM to support more AI features, including a rebooted Siri announced last week. And the company has long used NAND storage upgrades to boost profits, charging $100 to $200 for extra increments that cost it just a fraction of that.

In the interview, Cook said Apple stands ready to use its cash reserves to boost memory supply. “We’re willing to use our balance sheet to help be a part of the solution,” he said but added that “obviously, more capacity is needed.” 

Cook declined to offer specifics. It is unclear how Apple could match, let alone beat, the deal terms that AI hyperscalers are offering to lock up supply, and how much of a hit to the company's profits such a move would be. Those companies are signing three-to-five year agreements with huge cash prepayments that Apple is unlikely willing to match, given its long history of disciplined spending.

Cook said Apple wouldn’t use its cash and silicon expertise to build its own memory and storage factories. “We can’t do everything,” said Cook. “We know what we’re good at.”

Apple spends in the low tens of billions of dollars per year on memory and storage, according to people familiar with its costs, making it one of the largest customers in the world. Historically it has used its heft to wring the lowest prices out of suppliers, playing them off each other and leaving them little profit. As AI companies have stormed into the market, suddenly Apple has to wait in line.

Cook said during his time working in the electronics supply chain, from IBM to Compaq to Apple, he had never seen a commodity price swing like the one from the past six months. “This is a hundred-year flood,” said Cook. “I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years.”

Luckily, every flood comes with a drain, and as usual it is made in China. A few weeks ago, we reported that "China Begins Flooding The Market With DRAM And NAND Memory Chips", and followed up with a report yesterday that China's DRAM giant CXMT has gotten a final node for the largest mainland IPO since 2022 (as has YMTC, China’s leading NAND flash maker, #4 globally). In short, CHina is preparing to do to this commodity market what it has done to every other one in recent years: unleash massive price cuts to steal market share, and leave the incumbents in the trash heap (just look at Europe's imploding auto manufacturing sector).

Sure enough, we are now getting reports that none other than Google is evaluating procuring DRAM from Chinese vendors.

And once Google can do it, so will everyone else, at which point sit back and watch as the epic memory bubble crashes and burns. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:01

Ryan Cohen’s Massive $35 Billion Pay Deal Draws Shareholder Lawsuit

A GameStop shareholder has taken the company to court in an effort to delay a July vote on Ryan Cohen's proposed $35 billion pay package, arguing investors aren't getting the full story before being asked to approve it, according to Yahoo Finance. 

The lawsuit accuses GameStop's board of repeatedly changing the voting process in ways that could tilt the outcome toward management. Among the disputed changes are whether Cohen can vote his own sizable stake and how non-votes are treated when tallying results.

At the center of the fight is a compensation plan that could make Cohen one of the highest-paid executives in history—assuming GameStop reaches a series of extremely ambitious financial targets. Critics say the bigger issue isn't the payout itself, but the company's shifting explanations of how the vote will work.

The complaint alleges GameStop initially suggested independent shareholders would effectively decide the proposal, only to later adopt a framework that gives insiders far more influence over the result. According to the plaintiff, that could allow the package to pass even if most ordinary investors aren't on board.

The complaint says: "GameStop's audacious attempts to reduce the power of its disinterested shareholders — in contrast to its prior public statements and in disregard of its Certificate of Incorporation — must stop. Cohen may want $35 billion. That does not allow him and his board to disenfranchise stockholders and violate Delaware law along the way."

"I obviously want to build something much larger, but I don't benefit unless shareholders benefit," Cohen had said in a recent CNBC interview. 

In other words, shareholders are being asked to sign off on a potentially record-setting payday while still trying to figure out which rules apply—a situation the lawsuit argues is no accident.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 06:55

ECB: Iran Peace Deal Won't Erase Europe's Energy Price Shock

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Europe will have to contend with the energy price shock for months despite the tentative U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, European Central Bank (ECB) officials said this week.

The ECB last week raised key interest rates for the euro area for the first time since 2023 as the Middle East conflict hiked energy prices that have started to feed into core inflation.

The ECB raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, its first hike since 2023. Eurozone annual inflation climbed to 3.2% in May, from 3.0% in April, due to the Middle East conflict.

ECB officials are not ruling out further increases in interest rates this year, despite the U.S.-Iran deal, as the energy price shock is expected to linger for months to come.

“Higher energy costs are likely to remain with us longer than many had hoped,” ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said in remarks carried by Bloomberg.

“Even with the just-announced US-Iran peace framework, the damage in the Middle East cannot be undone overnight,” Kazimir added.

The energy price shock has led to European companies raising selling prices and employees and workers asking for higher pay, which would keep inflation rates elevated and well above the ECB’s target of 2%.

Hopes of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have eased some of the pressure on the ECB, but the deal hasn’t materially changed the near-term inflation prospects in the Eurozone, according to analysts.

The tentative U.S.-Iran deal doesn’t mean that “pressure to hike has been reduced very significantly,” JP Morgan economist Greg Fuzesi told Bloomberg.

ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, said earlier this week, “Let me be clear: an end to the conflict does not necessarily mean an immediate end to the shock.”

“Last week’s rate rise was necessary to prevent temporary energy-driven inflation from becoming embedded in wage and price expectations, reflecting the ECB's primary mandate to maintain price stability across the Eurozone,” Makhlouf added.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 06:30

Ferrari Reportedly Tells Buyers To Buy Unpopular Luce To Move Up On Wait List

Ferrari is reportedly using its first-ever EV, the Luce, a €550,000 model that looks more like a cross between a Tesla and a Kia, as a loyalty test inside its highly coveted allocation system.

Ferrari's allocation system is a notoriously exclusive, invitation-only process managed directly by the factory in Maranello. Rather than using waitlists, Ferrari curates ownership by evaluating a buyer's loyalty to the brand, requiring customers to build a multi-million-dollar history of ownership, participate in factory events, and retain cars in order to qualify to buy hypercars right off the production line.

Bloomberg sources say Ferrari is dangling the Luce to buyers in its allocation program, not only to offload the widely unpopular EV but also to give clients a path to move up in the allocation system.

"It is like a restaurant where it is impossible to get a table," Max Girardo, founder of collector-car advisory firm Girardo & Co. and a former RM Sotheby's auctioneer and motor-car specialist, told the outlet in an interview.

Girardo noted, "If you go every week, eventually they find you one. With Ferrari, the more you buy, the more you are treated as an important client."

Here's more detail on what Ferrari is telling clients in their allocation system:

Bloomberg spoke with more than half a dozen investors and collectors from Italy to China to gather details about how Ferrari communicated with clients following the Luce’s presentation.

One buyer said Ferrari made clear to him that taking the car mattered if he wanted to keep his place among top clients.

Another collector said the company is signaling to many clients, especially potential new buyers, that access to a future one-off model may first depend on buying the Luce or cheaper entry-level models.

Ferrari has long preserved its pricing power by intentionally keeping production below market demand, with output capped at roughly 14,000 vehicles last year. That scarcity drives the brand's exclusivity and fuels its coveted allocation system.

The Luce will likely still be purchased by clients looking to leapfrog in the allocation system, especially if it helps secure access to more desirable future releases.

Related: 

• Ferrari Vs Tesla: $640K Luce EV Loses Key Speed And Range Battles To Model S Plaid

Our view is that the Luce risks becoming a modern repeat of the Mondial, the less-loved Ferrari produced in the 1980s and early 1990s that has been shunned by collectors.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 05:45

Too Young For TikTok, Old Enough To Vote?

Authored by Clive Pinder via DailySceptic.org,

There are few sights more comic than a modern minister pretending to be the stern parent of the nation.

We know the routine. The concerned expression. The voice lowered half an octave. The carefully arranged background of flags, earnest young people and laminated safeguarding jargon. Then comes the announcement. The government is going to protect children online.

At which point every parent in the country is expected to breathe a sigh of relief, put down the gin and thank the Department for Being Sensible on Our Behalf.

This would be comic enough at any time. It is even better when the Government now proposing to supervise teenagers online gives the impression of being unable to supervise itself. Sir Keir Starmer wants to childproof the internet while presiding over a state that cannot produce a defence policy that convinces its own side, let alone our allies or enemies.

Still, never mind the Russian threat. Has anyone thought about Chloe scrolling Instagram?

To be fair, there is a problem. Social media is not exactly a moral health spa. Much of it resembles a Victorian freak show redesigned by behavioural psychologists and funded by advertising executives. It is addictive, vain, cruel, stupid and often deranging. The idea that a 14 year-old girl with a smartphone is simply exercising ‘choice’ while being stalked by an algorithm designed to exploit insecurity is absurd.

So no, this is not a libertarian hymn to TikTok.

The problem is not that politicians worry about the effect of social media on young people. The problem is that they worry about it selectively.

The same political class that increasingly tells us young people must be protected from online manipulation is also very keen to tell us that those same young people are mature enough to vote.

This is where the argument begins to wobble like a drunk on a paddleboard.

Apparently, a teenager may not have the judgement to scroll through Instagram without state supervision, but does have the judgement to help choose the next government.

This is not a principle. It is a convenience.

Defenders of the idea will say social media and voting are entirely different activities. One involves psychological harm. The other involves civic empowerment.

Up to a point. But both depend on the same basic faculties. Judgement, emotional maturity, resistance to manipulation, the ability to process information and some capacity to distinguish truth from nonsense.

These are precisely the faculties politicians tell us young people lack when the topic is social media. Yet they mysteriously reappear when the topic is extending the franchise.

If a 16 year-old is too impressionable to cope with Andrew Tate videos, dieting influencers or Chinese-owned dopamine dispensers, why is he or she suddenly immune to political propaganda?

Modern electioneering is not a seminar in constitutional philosophy. It is organised emotional manipulation. It uses fear, flattery, identity, resentment, slogans and carefully tested nonsense. It promises free things that are not free. It manufactures panic. It tells voters that unless they vote correctly, the planet will boil, fascism will return, public services will collapse and everyone decent will suffer.

But this, apparently, is citizenship.

The difference is not that social media manipulates while politics enlightens. The difference is that one form of manipulation sits outside the control of approved institutions. The other benefits them.

That is the real story.

The modern state has developed an elastic theory of childhood. Young people are treated as children when the state wants more power over families, technology, schools or speech. They are treated as adults when the state wants their votes, their assent or their moral authority.

Too young to smoke. Too young to drink. Too young to rent a car. Too young, increasingly, to open an app without the digital equivalent of a permission slip.

Yet old enough to help determine who runs the country.

Parents have been quietly demoted in this arrangement. A mother and father may apparently lack the wisdom to decide how their child uses a phone. Yet that same child, guided by teachers, activists, celebrities and taxpayer-funded campaigns, is expected to make profound democratic choices.

The absurdity is not hard to spot. It merely requires the increasingly unfashionable skill of noticing.

This is not an argument that teenagers are stupid. Many are thoughtful, curious and better informed than adults who spend their evenings shouting at the television. Nor is it an argument that all social media regulation is wrong. Some of it may be necessary, particularly where very young children are concerned.

It is an argument for coherence.

Parliament cannot say young people need protection from algorithms then invite them to swim in the sewage works of political campaigning and call it citizenship.

It cannot claim to defend autonomy while constantly transferring authority from families to bureaucracies.

This is the contradiction at the heart modern government. It does not want young people to grow up. It wants them managed, mobilised and morally useful.

So by all means let us have a serious debate about children, screens and harm. Let us talk about addiction, anxiety, pornography, bullying, parental responsibility and the tech companies that have turned childhood attention into a commodity.

But let us also drop the pretence.

A government that does not trust teenagers or their parents to navigate social media cannot then turn around and declare those same teenagers mature enough to help govern the nation.

That is not democracy.

It is babysitting with a ballot box.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 05:00

Barnacle Scrapers Cash In As Persian Gulf Shipping Bottleneck Eases

Demand for commercial divers who clean ship hulls has surged as vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf prepare to leave following a tentative US-Iran peace agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg.

According to Captain Manandeep Singh Kukreja of Prominence Shipping Services, requests for hull-cleaning crews have increased more than 30-fold since the announcement. Fees for cleaning a single vessel could rise up to 60%, from about $5,000 to $8,000.

Bloomberg reports that around 600 ships remain stuck in the Gulf after more than three months of disruption. Many have accumulated algae, slime, and barnacles, which can prevent entry into ports due to invasive-species concerns.

“The next 30 days, it’s going to be like striking gold for diving companies,” Kukreja said. “Everyone wants to get out of Hormuz and get back to earning money.”

“They’re going to make the best out of this opportunity. It’s a no-brainer that they will hike their prices.”

Cleaning needs vary by vessel. Some ships require only light slime removal, while others need extensive barnacle scraping after months in the warm Gulf waters.

The surge in demand for hull-cleaning crews reflects the broader disruption caused by months of conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.

Since fighting erupted in late February, hundreds of vessels have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, disrupting oil shipments, driving up shipping and insurance costs, and creating the largest interruption to global energy flows in decades. As a tentative peace deal raises hopes that traffic can resume, shipowners are racing to prepare vessels for departure, underscoring the scale of the operational and financial fallout from more than three months of turmoil in the region.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 04:15

Poland Moves To Tax Fuel Windfalls Earned During Iran War

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

Poland's government has approved a one-off windfall tax on fuel companies that benefited from soaring energy prices during the U.S.-Iran-Israel war, seeking to recover part of the billions spent protecting consumers from higher fuel costs.

The proposed levy would impose a 60% tax on excess profits generated between March and December 2026, during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Polish Finance Ministry estimates the measure will raise around 4 billion zloty $1.1 billion.

Under the proposal, excess profits would be calculated using fuel sales margins that exceed a company's average 2025 margin by more than 20%, reflecting profits from an extraordinary geopolitical supply shock instead of improved business performance.

"Exceptional economic and geopolitical conditions" created unusually high profits across parts of the fuel sector while imposing significant costs on the state budget, the Finance Ministry said in a statement carried by Polish news outlets.

State-controlled energy giant Orlen is expected to bear the largest share of the tax burden, accounting for roughly 60% of the projected tax base according to the government's impact assessment.

The proposal follows months of emergency measures introduced by Warsaw to shield households and businesses from soaring fuel prices. Poland temporarily reduced VAT and excise duties on fuels and imposed price controls designed to ensure consumers benefited from the tax cuts. According to government estimates, the fuel excise reduction and reduced VAT collections cost Poland around $435 million a month.

The measure still faces political hurdles, though. Tusk's coalition controls parliament; however, the legislation must also be signed by President Karol Nawrocki, an opposition ally who has repeatedly blocked government fiscal initiatives.

The government initially proposed a 75% windfall tax before reducing the rate to 60% following consultations with industry groups, which warned that the original proposal would have pushed the effective tax burden on some companies to nearly 94%.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 02:45

Germany's Anti-immigration AfD Party Jumps To Record 9-Point Lead Over CDU In Latest Poll

Via Remix News,

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to run away from its main rival, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Socialist Union (CSU) in a new poll, which shows the AfD nine points ahead.

The AfD achieved a new record in the current YouGov poll, reaching 29 percent, while the CDU/CSU and SPD have hit all-time lows. The results are expected to pile on the pressure on a governing coalition the German public increasingly despises.

In the YouGov poll, CDU/CSU achieves 20 percent of the vote and SPD earns 12 percent. The Union parties have never been worse in a YouGov poll.

BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage YouGov

AfD: 29% (+1)
Union: 20% (-2)
GRÜNE: 14% (+1)
SPD: 12% (-1)
LINKE: 12% (+1)
FDP: 5% (+1)
BSW: 4%
Sonstige: 5%

Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 12. Mai 2026

Verlauf: https://t.co/f9MV7iZ8iJ#btw29 pic.twitter.com/yO2VS2jJn5

— Deutschland Wählt (@Wahlen_DE) June 16, 2026

However, the Greens at 14 percent and the Left Party at 12 percent are making slight gains.

The FDP is also gaining ground, reaching 5 percent for the first time in a year and a half after a new chairman was elected, Wolfgang Kubicki.

The results for the CDU in particular are bound to spark further turmoil in the party, with some members perhaps even eyeing a future coalition with the AfD, a move that has been soundly rejected by CDU leadership. In particular, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to never work with the party.

The conundrum for the CDU remains that the party is forced to build coalitions with predominately left-wing parties like the Greens, the SPD, and even the Left Party, through its firewall against the AfD. The resulting politics have left CDU voters increasingly unhappy with the results, but remarkably, about half of CDU voters also reject a coalition with the AfD.

Majority of Germans reject politicizing the World Cup

YouGov also found that a majority of Germans do not want the World Cup politicized. The German national team has a history of taking a “woke” stance in the last two World Cups, but the German team was eventually humiliated in each tournament, failing to advance past the preliminary round in both World Cups.

However, Germans soundly reject politics in football, with 65 percent of respondents saying they want the World Cup and politics to be strictly separated. AfD voters (82 percent) and CDU/CSU voters (74 percent) are especially in favor of this position. More than half of SPD voters at 55 percent also share this view.

However, those on the more extreme left, back politics in football, like the Left Party (41 percent) and the Greens (34 percent).

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 02:00

America At 250: Survey Finds Enduring Patriotism, Growing Anxiety

Authored by Karlyn Bowman and Nicole Penn via RealClearPolitics,

As we approach the nation's semiquincentennial celebrations, the American Enterprise Institute released a new public opinion survey exploring Americans' views about the nation's past and present. The survey is part of AEI's America at 250 initiative, and it expands on a survey conducted 30 years ago by the Public Agenda Foundation in NYC.

Americans continue to endorse many of the ideals the founders championed, and they worry about their erosion. Nearly eight in 10 believe Americans take their freedoms for granted, while only 19% say Americans appreciate the freedom we have.

More than two-thirds of Americans believe that society has to teach kids what it means to be an American, while three in 10, 31%, believe this is something that happens naturally as they grow up. Three-quarters think high school students should be required to study the Declaration of Independence this year as part of the nation's 250th anniversary, including 61% of Gen Z-ers. Twenty-nine percent nationally say they have read the Declaration in full, while 45% have read it in part. Slightly more than a quarter, 26%, say they have not read the document. Still, 85% said they could give a good answer to what the 4th of July holiday actually celebrates, while 13% said they would be more comfortable looking it up.

Americans don't want to gloss over their history, and 65% said it was important to have public discussions of the nation's historical failures and flaws. In another question, 90% said it was very or somewhat important for high school students to learn how slavery and racial discrimination shaped the country. Forty-two percent said the public schools these days do not pay enough attention to the harm done to African Americans in U.S. history. Still, 75% in another question agreed with the statement "America is not perfect, but the country's leaders have worked hard to make it better." To this group of Americans, it was important to teach the country's failures and flaws but also its successes and strengths.

The survey revealed some significant gaps between members of the Gen Z cohort and baby boomers. Thirty percent of the Gen Z-ers strongly agreed that the Founding Fathers deserved respect for how they created the country compared to 60% of baby boomers. Two-thirds of Gen Z compared to 89% of boomers said they were very or somewhat proud to be an American. There were also big gaps between the parents surveyed in 1998 and parents today. Parents today are less likely to see the country and its history positively and also less likely to insist that schools teach positive claims about it.

Karlyn Bowman is a senior fellow emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute where she studies public opinion. 

Nicole Penn is the assistant director of AEI’s Social, Cultural, and Constitutional Studies department.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 23:25

China's Alibaba Unveils AI Brains Designed To Power The Next Generation Of Robots

Authored by Jijo Malayil via Interesting Engineering,

Chinese firm Alibaba has launched its first embodied AI model family, which links large language models with real-world robotic actions.

The Qwen-Robot suite includes three distinct models, each targeting a different layer of physical intelligence.Unitree/YouTube

The Qwen-Robot suite was developed by Alibaba's Tongyi Lab and is undergoing pilot testing with selected Alibaba Cloud enterprise clients.

The suite comprises three models focused on navigation, manipulation, and world modeling for robots operating in physical environments.

Alibaba said the models enable machines to perceive, reason, and interact with the real world, joining a growing global push to advance embodied AI beyond traditional chatbot applications.

Robots meet reasoning

Alibaba says its Qwen family of AI models has become very good at understanding the physical world. These models can recognize objects, understand spatial relationships, follow complex visual instructions, and reason about real-world environments. For example, a model can understand a command such as, "Go to the kitchen, find the red cup, pick it up, and place it on the shelf."

However, understanding a task is different from actually performing it. While a vision-language model (VLM) can describe the steps needed to complete a task, it cannot directly control a robot's movements.

The challenge is connecting human language and visual understanding with the motor actions required to interact with the physical world.

This problem is difficult because robot training data is very different from internet data. Information collected from navigation systems, robotic arms, vehicles, and cameras comes in different formats and is expensive to gather. Simply combining all this data often creates conflicts rather than improving performance.

To address this, Alibaba developed the Qwen-Robot Suite, which includes three specialized models. Qwen-RobotNav focuses on movement and navigation. It helps robots follow instructions, navigate to locations, track targets, and support autonomous driving.

According to its website, Qwen-RobotManip focuses on physical interaction. It enables robots to grasp, move, and manipulate objects using a large training dataset collected from different robotic systems. Qwen-RobotWorld acts as a world model, predicting how environments may change and helping robots understand the likely outcomes of their actions.

Together, these models aim to enable robots to understand instructions, interact with objects, navigate environments, and make decisions in the real world.

Physical AI accelerates

Alibaba showcased Qwen-RobotNav on a Unitree Go2 quadruped powered by NVIDIA Jetson Thor hardware and a single low-resolution camera. The robot successfully navigated an unfamiliar apartment, following spoken instructions across multiple rooms without preloaded maps, while maintaining an inference latency of 196 milliseconds.

The company claims that Qwen-RobotManip, its robotic manipulation model, was trained on more than 38,000 hours of open-source data covering object handling and interaction tasks. According to Alibaba, the model recently achieved the highest score in the generalist category of the RoboChallenge real-world robotics benchmark, earning a process score of 59.83 and a task success rate of 45 percent.

The company also unveiled Qwen-RobotClaw, a robotics agent framework that enables Qwen models to use the Qwen-Robot suite as physical-world tools. In one demonstration, an agent searched for a restroom, identified an out-of-order sign, and independently rerouted to another location. Alibaba further open-sourced Chat2Robot, a browser-based platform for testing embodied AI interactions.

As competition in embodied AI intensifies worldwide, Alibaba has expanded its ambitions beyond language and multimodal software with the launch of its Qwen-Robot models. The move reflects a broader industry shift toward creating AI systems capable of understanding and interacting with the physical world.

Alibaba's move comes as competition in physical AI accelerates globally. In the US, Google DeepMind is advancing Gemini Robotics, while Nvidia is expanding its robotics ecosystem through Cosmos, Isaac, and GR00T. Start-ups, including Physical Intelligence, Skild AI, and Figure AI, are also developing general-purpose robotic intelligence, according to the South China Morning Post.

China is strengthening its position by pairing its manufacturing advantages with growing investments in AI software for autonomous decision-making. The sector now spans AI developers, robotics firms, and EV makers. Companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Unitree, AgiBot, UBTech, Galbot, Spirit AI, GigaAI, Xpeng, and Xiaomi are actively pursuing embodied AI technologies.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 23:00