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Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Retail Sales, ISM, Beige Book... And War In Iran

Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Retail Sales, ISM, Beige Book... And War In Iran

Outside the obvious and huge attention on the Middle East, the key focus this week will be on the US jobs report on Friday, retail sales on the same day, the ISM indices (today and Wednesday), and the Fed’s Beige Book, also due on Wednesday. European releases will include inflation data tomorrow and the ECB’s accounts of their February meeting on Thursday. Various global PMIs are also out this week.
In politics, highlights include the Two Sessions in China as well as the Spring Statement in the UK. Earnings reports will be due from Costco and Broadcom.

Delving deeper into the US data, the most important release in the week ahead is Friday’s February employment report. DB economists forecast headline payroll growth of 30k, down from 130k previously, with private payrolls rising by 50k after January’s unusually strong 172k gain. The moderation largely reflects payback from outsized hiring last month in private education and health services and construction, where job gains more than doubled their six month averages. Elsewhere in the establishment survey, economists expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.4% month over month, unchanged from January, while the average workweek remains steady at 34.3 hours.

The household survey adds an additional layer of uncertainty this month, as the BLS implements its delayed annual population controls. DB's economists forecast the unemployment rate at 4.3%, though risks around this estimate are elevated in both directions. January data will also be revised using the new controls, and attention will be focused on whether these adjustments meaningfully alter unemployment rates across demographic groups, particularly among younger cohorts, where concerns around entry level hiring remain heightened.

Friday also brings January retail sales, where weather related weakness in auto sales is likely to weigh on the headline figure. DB economists expect headline sales to decline 0.6%, with sales excluding autos down 0.1%, partly reflecting lower gasoline prices. That said, retail control sales are forecast to rebound by 0.3%, pointing to a firmer underlying pace of goods consumption. Tax refunds should provide additional support to spending in coming months, with the average refund running meaningfully higher than a year ago.

Ahead of Friday, several other releases will help set the tone. Today’s manufacturing ISM is expected to edge up to 53.3 from 52.6. Wednesday brings the ADP employment report, forecast at 50k (though seasonals might push it higher), alongside the non manufacturing ISM, seen at 54.0.

Other notable data include February unit motor vehicle sales tomorrow, which is expected at 15.1 million, potentially restrained again by adverse weather. Thursday’s preliminary Q4 productivity and unit labor cost figures are forecast at 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

Moving to Europe, the focus will continue to be on inflation, with February prints due for the Eurozone and Italy tomorrow, Switzerland on Wednesday, and Sweden on Thursday. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde today, and the central bank will release the accounts of its February meeting on Thursday. 

In the UK, attention will be on the Spring Statement delivered by the Chancellor tomorrow, and our UK economist previews it here. There will also be the February DMP survey from the BoE on Thursday.

Over in Asia, the spotlight will be on China’s annual Two Sessions starting Wednesday (running through March 11), followed by the National People’s Congress session opening on Thursday, with the 15th Five Year Plan expected. Elsewhere, data highlights will include the February PMIs, both the official and private gauges, in China on Wednesday.

In Japan, the Shunto wage demands due on Thursday are the most anticipated event next week and expects wage demands this year to come in at 6.0%. There will also be the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations (MoF survey) for Q4 on Tuesday, as well as the February consumer sentiment index on Wednesday.  

Earnings will include tech firms Broadcom, CrowdStrike and Marvell. US consumer firms will continue to be in focus, with reports from Costco and Target.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 2

  • Data: US February ISM manufacturing, UK January net consumer credit, M4, Germany January retail sales, Italy February manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, Canada February manufacturing PMI
  • Central banks: ECB's Lagarde, Nagel and Stournaras speak, BoJ's Himino speaks, BoE's Taylor speaks, BoC’s Kozicki speaks
  • Earnings: AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, Venture Global, Norwegian Cruise Line

Tuesday March 3

  • Data: US February total vehicle sales, Japan January jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, February monetary base, Q4 Ministry of Finance survey, France January budget balance, Eurozone February CPI, Italy February CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams and Kashkari speak, ECB's Kocher and Sleijpen speak
  • Earnings: Crowdstrike, Thales, AutoZone, Target, ASM, Kuehne + Nagel, On Holding, Gitlab
  • Other: UK Spring Statement

Wednesday March 4

  • Data: US February ISM services, ADP report, UK February official reserves changes, China February PMIs, Japan February consumer confidence index, Italy February services PMI, January unemployment rate, Eurozone January PPI, unemployment rate, Canada Q4 labor productivity, February services PMI, Switzerland February CPI, Australia Q4 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed’s Beige Book, ECB's Muller, Cipollone, Villeroy and Guindos speak, BoC’s Macklem speaks
  • Earnings: Broadcom, Bayer, adidas, Veeva, Okta, Davide Campari-Milano
  • Other: China’s Two Sessions start

Thursday March 5

  • Data: US January import price index, export price index, Q4 nonfarm productivity, Q4 unit labor costs, initial jobless claims, UK February new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany February construction PMI, France January industrial production, Italy January retail sales, Eurozone January retail sales, Sweden February CPI
  • Central banks: ECB’s accounts of the February meeting, ECB's Lagarde, Guindos, Rehn and Nagel speak, BoE’s February DMP survey 
  • Earnings: Costco, Petroleo Brasileiro, Marvell, Deutsche Post, Reckitt Benckiser, Ciena, Galderma, Kroger, Universal Music Group
  • Other: China’s NPC’s session starts

Friday March 6

  • Data: US February jobs report, US Retail Sales, January consumer credit, Germany January factory orders
  • Central banks: Fed's Hammack speaks, ECB's Cipollone and Schnabel speak

* * * * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including an event with New York Fed President Williams on Tuesday.

Monday, March 2 

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, February final (consensus 51.4, last 51.2) 
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, February (GS 51.0, consensus 51.5, last 52.6): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index declined by 1.6pt to 51.0 in February, reflecting reversion after an outsized increase in the prior month. Our manufacturing survey tracker edged up by 0.1pt to 52.4.

Tuesday, March 3 

  • 09:55 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at America’s Credit Union Government Affairs conference in Washington DC. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
  • 11:55 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President, Neel Kashkari, will participate in a conversation with Mike McKee at the Bloomberg Invest conference in New York City. Q&A is expected. On January 5, Kashkari said, “My guess is we are pretty close to neutral right now.” He added that “we just need to get more data to see [whether inflation or the labor market] is the bigger force, [and] then we can move from a neutral stance to whatever direction is necessary.”
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, February (GS 15.6mn, consensus 15.4mn, last 14.9mn)

Wednesday, March 4 

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, February (GS +50k, consensus +50k, last +22k)
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, February final (consensus 52.3, last 52.3) 
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, February (GS 53.5, consensus 53.5, last 53.8): We estimate that the ISM services index edged down by 0.3pt to 53.5 in February, reflecting a decline in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-1.3pt to 52.0) but a tailwind from potential residual seasonality.
  • 02:00 PM Fed Releases Beige Book, March meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the January FOMC meeting period noted that overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with three Districts reporting no change and one reporting a modest decline, marking an improvement over the last three reports. In this month’s Beige Book, we will look for anecdotes related to the evolution of labor demand and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.

Thursday, March 5 

  • 08:30 AM Import price index, January (consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%) 
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q4 preliminary (GS +2.2%, consensus +1.8%, last +4.9%): Unit labor costs, Q4 preliminary (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.0%, last -1.9%)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended February 28 (GS 215k, consensus 215k, last 212k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 21 (consensus 1,845k, last 1,833k)

Friday, March 6 

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, February (GS +45k, consensus +60k, last +130k); Private payroll employment, February (GS +45k, consensus +70k, last +172k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Unemployment rate, February (GS 4.4%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 45k in February. On the negative side, we expect a 31k drag from newly striking workers and a modest headwind from poor winter weather after it likely boosted January payroll growth. Additionally, we expect unchanged government payrolls—reflecting a 5k decline in federal government payrolls that is offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. The big data indicators of job growth we track were mixed in February. On the positive side, the pace of layoffs remained subdued and online measures of job openings stabilized. We estimate that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in February. While other measures of labor market tightness improved slightly on net, the February unemployment rate appears to suffer from positive residual seasonality (the unrounded unemployment rate has increased in each of the last three Februarys by an average of 0.15pp). The report will be accompanied by updated population controls, which are likely to lead to downward revisions to the level of the population, labor force, and household employment. The impact on ratios in the survey (e.g., the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate) is likely to be negligible. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in February, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, January (GS -0.1%, consensus -0.3%, last flat); Retail sales ex-auto, January (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last flat); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); Core retail sales, January (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.5% in January (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting solid alternative data and a tailwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales declined 0.1%, reflecting a decline in auto sales and lower gasoline prices.
  • 10:15 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speak: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will discuss private sector data at the US Monetary Policy Forum held by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York City. Text and Q&A are expected. On February 17, Daly said, “The Fed has roughly 75bps to go until getting to neutral…the policy stance now is modestly or slightly restrictive.”
  • 01:30 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a panel discussion on the dollar’s safe-haven status at the US Monetary Policy Forum in New York City. Text and Q&A are expected. On February 10, Hammack said, “Rather than trying to fine-tune the fed funds rate, I’d prefer to err on the side of patience as we assess the impact of recent rate reductions and monitor how the economy performs.” She also noted, “Based on my forecast, we could be on hold for quite some time.”

Soruce: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 09:53

Migrants Filmed Catching And Butchering Swans, Ducks In UK And Ireland

Migrants Filmed Catching And Butchering Swans, Ducks In UK And Ireland

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Shocking videos reveal migrants setting traps and snatching protected birds from public waterways, fueling outrage over unchecked immigration destroying local wildlife.

Video evidence from Ireland shows a local resident dismantling crude wire cages placed along Dublin’s Grand Canal by tent-dwelling migrants, believed to be targeting swans and ducks for consumption. 

The footage captures the man, accompanied by his dog, uprooting the traps hidden in the grass near the water’s edge.

In the clip, no direct dialogue is heard, but the intent is clear as the resident methodically removes the snares, preventing what could have been a slaughter of iconic birds.

This incident echoes similar scenes across the UK. One video documents an RSPCA officer confronting a migrant family suspected of poaching and cooking a large white bird, possibly a swan.

“I’m going to get someone to check what bird this is. I think it might be a swan, but do you know the big white birds that you see on the park?” the officer questions.

She inspects the pot: “You can see bones in this bird because he isn’t chicken so I am concerned. There are laws against people taking animals… It’s very serious. It’s very serious if that happens.”

Examining the bin, she notes: “You see problem is there are lot of big white feathers here.”

The family claims the birds were bought and released during a children’s chase game, but the officer warns: “What I need to make sure is everybody here knows that they’re not allowed to take anything from the park. I’m not saying you did.”

Another clip shows a family carrying a wild bird they have clearly taken and are intending to eat.

Another clip shows a migrant grabbing a swan in a park.

Another post asks “What is this migrant doing?” as a man hauls a struggling swan over a railing.

Similar footage captures a man on a bridge snatching a swan from the water below, swinging it by the neck before walking away.

These videos and many more like them have sparked furious reactions online.

The cases parallel the chaos in Springfield, Ohio, where Haitian migrants have been accused of decapitating and eating ducks in parks. 

A resident testified at a city commission meeting: “They’re in the park grabbing up ducks by their neck and cutting their head off and walking off with ’em and eating them.”

He questioned officials: “Who is getting paid? Like how much money is y’all really getting paid? Like to bring them over here, like I know it’s deeper than them.”

As we previously reported, Springfield’s city manager admitted hearing such reports, despite later denials amid media “fact checks” dismissing the issue as misinformation.

This pattern exposes the failures of open-border policies, importing incompatible cultural practices that harm protected wildlife and erode community safety. From Ohio’s overwhelmed streets to Britain’s depleted parks, the toll of mass migration mounts.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 09:15

Modern Warfare Sees First Drone Strike On A Commercial Data Center

Modern Warfare Sees First Drone Strike On A Commercial Data Center

We told readers one month ago that, while trillions of dollars are being allocated to the global data center buildout, virtually every Wall Street analyst remains fixated on financing, chip stacks, power, land, water, and other obvious mainstream inputs. However, we identified one overlooked emerging threat they missed: the risk of kamikaze drone attacks.

By Sunday morning, that risk was realized, as our note pointed out that Amazon's cloud unit, AWS, experienced degraded service in the United Arab Emirates due to a "localized power issue."

Now, a Reuters report provides more color on what exactly happened after an AWS data center in the UAE had to shut down operations, in what appears to be the first known instance of a commercial data center being physically targeted in a conflict.

UAE Data Center Map

The first commercial data center to be damaged on the modern battlefield is certainly not going to be the last, as the Ukraine war has created a period of rapid weapon development over the last four years, as well as in other conflict areas around the world, with the proliferation of FPVs and cheap drones with warheads and AI kill chains.

This threat was outlined in our note titled "Explosion In AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security," as we recognized that the rapid development in this war technology has effectively accelerated war tech from the 2030s to today (read here). There were absolutely no Wall Street analysts we read on a daily basis discussing this emerging drone threat to data centers as the great buildout unfolded. Analysts were too busy talking about power and AI chips.

But guess who was talking about the data center threat about a year ago? Well... former Google CEO Eric Schmidt (read here). Schmidt was in Ukraine in January (read here).  

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 08:55

Futures Tumble As Iran War Sends Oil, Gold And Dollar Sharply Higher

Futures Tumble As Iran War Sends Oil, Gold And Dollar Sharply Higher

US equity futures and global stocks tumbled, the dollar and gold rallied and oil soared as military strikes intensified across the Middle East, sending oil to its biggest surge in four years and stoking concern that faster inflation could weigh on the global economy. AS of 8:10am ET, S&P 500 futures are down more than 1% - but off overnight lows - after the cash index fell nearly 1% over the previous two trading days; Nasdaq futures tumbled 1.5% with all Mag 7 stocks lower by more than 1% in premarket trading; Aerospace/Defense, Energy, and Gold Miners are the safety havens in equities and all are bid pre-mkt; PLTR +4% may help +Software/-Semis. In the latest war news, AMZN data centers were hit in Bahrain/UAE, as was a UK base in Cyprus; with Israel attacking Lebanon; both Israeli and Saudi indices opened higher before reversing lower due to escalation. After soaring 13% at the open, crude oil traded down to +4% and was now +7.5% after Saudi Aramco halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery after a drone strike in the area. Bond yields are notably higher, rising +4-5bps with the USD bid against all major FX and DXY +57bp which would be its best day since Feb 2. Energy is unsurprisingly leading commodities higher with double-digit gains in gasoil, heating oil, and EU natgas. Gold, which is now at $5400, is leading silver ($94/oz) with platinum flat. 

In premarket trading, energy and defense stocks rallied, with Exxon Mobil shares climbing 5.2% in early trading. British Airways owner IAG SA fell 5.4% amid a widespread disruption to flights in the Middle East. Mag 7 stocks all fall (Microsoft -0.8%, Apple -1%, Nvidia -1.3%, Meta -1.7%, Amazon -2.4%, Alphabet -2.6%, Tesla -2.1%)

  • The Iran conflict is pushing shares of airlines and cruise operators lower, while energy stocks jump. Movers include American Airlines (AAL) -6% and Exxon (XOM) +4%.
  • US banks and financials are pointing lower as risk off sentiment extends with military strikes intensifying across the Middle East. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) -2%, Wells Fargo (WFC) -1.7%.
  • AES Corp. (AES) falls 16% after a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT agreed to buy the electric utility.
  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) slips 1% after the conglomerate’s operating profits fell nearly 30% in Warren Buffett’s last quarter as CEO. Analysts note weakness in the company’s insurance businesses.
  • EchoStar (SATS) declines 2% after the parent of Dish Network posted a net loss in the fourth quarter.
  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY) rises 5% after Warner Bros. Discovery filed a join-statement following the market close on Friday announcing that they had entered into a definitive merger agreement.
  • UniQure (QURE) tumbles 41% after US regulators said the company should conduct a pivotal study before getting approval of its gene therapy for Huntington’s disease, another example of the Trump administration slowing a treatment for a rare disease drug.

While markets are recoiling from the latest war in the Middle East, the strikes on Iran were heavily telegraphed and traders had built up meaningful hedging. Still, the conflict may be longer and wider than some expected. Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran will continue, perhaps for weeks. Iran fired missiles on Israel, US military bases and Persian Gulf countries including the financial hub of Dubai (there is a full summary of all the latest war news in the section below).

The war in Iran is adding to a list of headwinds for markets already on edge after fears over disruption from artificial intelligence and pressure in private credit have nearly erased this year’s gains in the S&P 500. Investors are now focused on how long the conflict will last and how far hostilities might spread, after President Donald Trump said the campaign could continue for weeks.

"The endgame remains highly uncertain, ranging from a relatively swift political exit to a broader regional spillover,” said Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer. “In such a fog of war, markets tend to trade probabilities rather than shifting facts.”

The dollar strengthened as a spike in oil prices spurred traders to dial back bets on Fed rate cuts this year, with Bloomberg economists writing that changes to Fed policy are far from guaranteed, despite the war. The team’s risk scenario is for oil to raise to $108 a barrel, while a more temporary spike would keep the Fed on alert, but not trigger a shift in policy.

Meanwhile, Aramco halted operations at Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery after a drone strike in the area, Bloomberg reported. QatarEnergy’s decision to cease LNG production followed attacks on its Ras Laffan complex, sending European gas prices soaring.

“It is still very unclear what the duration of the conflict will be and more importantly, how the energy market reacts,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “One positive for the US is that the market has corrected since January, so we are not in overbought territory. It’s fair to say havens should continue to outperform.”

Strategists are coalescing around the view that a buying opportunity for US stocks may emerge. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka said the weekend’s events will naturally lead to risk-off in the short term, but investors with a 3/6/12-month time frame should use weakness to increase exposure. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson agrees that the bullish view is intact for now, with a lasting spike in oil above $100 needed to impact the US equity outlook.

Still, geopolitical events underscore the need to diversify and hedge portfolios at a much faster pace over the next few months, according to today’s Taking Stock column. The impact on the stock market will be determined by its duration, Citigroup strategists said, as they presume a shorter-term impact.

Prashant Bhayani, chief investment officer for Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, said the main questions traders are looking out for are how long the disruption lasts, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, any impact on oil infrastructure and whether Iran and the US can reach a negotiated settlement. “Most geopolitical events have limited long-term impact on asset markets,” Bhayani said. “There is already a premium in oil of circa $7-$10 before today’s trading. Only in an extended conflict, with oil prices over $100, would it materially impact the global economy.”

On the economic front, payrolls come back into focus later this week with the survey forecasting a more modest pace of hiring in February relative to the start of the year. January retail sales data is also due Friday, while the Fed’s Beige Book is released on Wednesday. 

The Stoxx 600 has pared its fall, to 1.4%, although remains on course for its worst daily performance since November after conflict in the Middle East escalated over the weekend. Energy is the only sector in the green, while retail, travel and consumer product stocks fall the most. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

  • Shipping and logistics stocks are among the few gainers in European trading on Monday as conflict in the Middle East disrupts the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes.
  • Energy stocks rise on back of an oil-price surge triggered by US and Israeli strikes against Iran. Morgan Stanley upgraded the sector to overweight, while JPMorgan upped its price targets on a slew of companies.
  • Galp Energia shares rise as much as 9.6%, hitting their highest level since mid-2024, as rising Middle East tensions cause oil prices to surge.
  • European defense stocks jump, with BAE Systems among those hitting record highs, as conflict in the Middle East spurs expectations of elevated security spending.
  • Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 5.7% and were downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs after data last week showed its next-generation obesity drug CagriSema delivered less weight loss than Eli Lilly’s rival blockbuster.
  • European banks fall as war between the US and Iran triggered a broad-based selloff.
  • European airlines stocks slump as conflict in the Middle East causes major disruptions at some of the world’s busiest airports. Analysts flag higher fuel costs and air space closures as factors likely to disrupt the sector.
  • Informa shares sink as much as 11%, the biggest intraday drop since the Covid outbreak of 2020, as the events firm got swept up in the selloff of stocks exposed to the conflict in the Middle East.
  • Oxford Nanopore shares drop as much as 18% after the British DNA-sequencing company cut its medium-term growth guidance, which analysts say will spark consensus downgrades.
  • Luxury stocks fall as the escalating conflict in the Middle East creates a “highly uncertain backdrop” for the sector, according to Vontobel.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped for the first time in six days as the US-Israeli war against Iran prompted investors to reduce exposure to risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.8%, the most in a month, with financials and health-care the worst-performing sectors. A subgauge of energy shares climbed nearly 1% as oil rallied. Pakistani shares plunged the most on record after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, while benchmarks in Thailand, the Philippines and Hong Kong were leading declines in the region. Markets in South Korea were shut for a holiday. For Asian assets, the main risk from a prolonged Middle East conflict lies in a stronger dollar and higher oil prices, given that most economies in the region are net energy importers. A gauge of the greenback advanced on Monday and oil prices spiked before paring gains following a report that indicated at least one top official in Tehran sought to resume nuclear talks with the US. Japan’s Topix also dropped nearly 3% before paring declines, with bank stocks among the biggest losers.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped 1.8% to enter a technical correction. A gauge of Chinese tech shares listed in the financial hub — which entered a bear market last month — shed 2.9%. The declines came as investors keenly awaited the start of China’s most important annual political meeting from Thursday, where top leaders are expected to set the growth target for 2026 and lay out economic priorities for the coming five years.

In FX, the dollar has pulled back from the highs. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.5%. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.9%. The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have been the most resilient.

In rates, treasuries hold losses after erasing opening gains that were spurred by broadening Middle East warfare after the US struck Iran. The reversal suggested that traders chose to bet on the potential inflationary aspects of the US-Iran conflict rather than rush to safe havens which helped Friday’s rally into month-end. Adding to upside pressure on yields, US benchmark crude oil futures are up about 8% with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a near standstill. US yields are 3bp to 4bp higher, keeping curve spreads within 1bp of Friday’s closing levels. 10-year is near 3.98% vs session low 3.922% reached shortly after the Asia open. European government bonds are also in the red with underperformance seen in shorter-dated maturities as traders trim bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and European Central Bank.

For Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY, Monday’s rise in US yields came as no big surprise given the elevated levels at which bonds were trading. The 10-year rate was at 3.99%, five basis points higher for the day.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures rose the most in four years, while Brent crude soared more than 7%, topping $80 a barrel as traders assess how quickly Hormuz traffic can normalize. In Europe, natural gas jumped as much as 28%, the biggest increase since August 2023 after Goldman warned that European natural gas prices could more than double if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for one month. Spot gold rises 2% and briefly topped $5,400/oz. Silver logs a slightly smaller gain. Bitcoin rises 0.8%. 

US economic data slate includes February final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and February ISM manufacturing (10am); no Fed speakers are scheduled

Market snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -1.4%
  • Russell 2000 mini -1.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 -1.3%
  • DAX -1.6%
  • CAC 40 -1.5%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 3.96%
  • VIX +3.4 points at 23.3
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1192.78
  • euro -0.6% at $1.1743
  • WTI crude +7.4% at $72.01/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Donald Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran may last for weeks and called on the nation’s leaders to capitulate. Blasts were heard across several Gulf states as they intercepted missiles launched by Iran. Trump is pushing for an Iranian leadership change but told ABC his preferred candidates to lead Iran were killed in the initial US strike. BBG
  • Iran is planning to name a new supreme leader within days after Saturday’s killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While Trump has urged Iranians to seize power from the regime, there’s no sign the US has laid the groundwork for an opposition movement. BBG
  • The IDF bombed Lebanon after Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into Israel, opening a new front in a widening regional war. Lebanon ordered the militant group to disarm. BBG
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the killing of Khamenei “unacceptable,” complicating the planned summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping. Beijing said Washington gave it no advance warning of the attack, and added that they are in communication with the US about exchanges between their leaders. BBG
  • China Foreign Ministry said they are in communication with the US about exchanges between their leaders.
  • Wealthy investors who ploughed hundreds of billions of dollars into private credit are pulling back, cutting off a key source of funds that investment giants including Blackstone, Blue Owl, and Ares Management have used to fuel their growth. New commitments to so called non traded business development companies slid 40% to $3.2bn in January compared with December. FT
  • DeepSeek is set to release its latest large language model next week, more than a year since its last major release in a fresh test of China’s ambitions to challenge US rivals in AI.
  • A gauge of manufacturing activity signaled continued improvement in some of Asia’s top exporting economies midway through the first quarter, as demand for the region’s goods defied a volatile global environment. WSJ
  • Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the central bank is expected to keep raising interest rates but gave no hints on the timing of the next hike, as the Middle East conflict heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook. RTRS
  • Russian officials increasingly consider there’s no point to continue US-led peace talks with Ukraine unless Kyiv is willing to cede territory to reach a deal, according to people familiar with the negotiations. BBG

Iran War

  • US and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February, with explosions reported across Tehran shortly after 09:30 local time (06:00 GMT / 01:00 EST), and additional strikes were confirmed in Isfahan, Qom, Karaj and Kermanshah, while the Israeli military confirmed it launched an additional wave of strikes on Sunday morning, targeting Iran's ballistic missile and aerial defence systems.
  • Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following Saturday’s US–Israeli “decapitation strike” on his secure residence and office compound in central Tehran. Furthermore, IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks on Sunday, while Iranian sources stated that 27 US bases across the region were targeted, along with Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv. It was also reported that Iran fired missiles towards British military bases in Cyprus and that rockets landed near British troops in Bahrain.
  • Israeli Air Force launched a new wave of attacks on Iranian regime targets in Tehran early on Monday and bombarded Hezbollah strongholds in the southern suburb of Beirut, while Hezbollah fired rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, and it was also reported that Hezbollah parliamentary bloc head Mohammed Raad was killed in an Israeli raid.
  • US President Trump said the US military launched “major combat operations” in Iran with the objective of defending the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. Trump said people in Iran should stay at home and that bombs will be dropping everywhere, while he called for Iranians to take over the government.
  • US President Trump said that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei had died, and he was informed that they destroyed and sank nine Iranian ships, as well as largely destroyed the naval headquarters. Trump separately commented that the military operations are ahead of schedule and that 48 leaders were killed in strikes on Iran, while he also stated that Iranian leaders want to talk and he has agreed to talk, but couldn’t say if it would happen soon, according to Atlantic Magazine and Daily Mail. Furthermore, Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks, while he also stated on Sunday that they have hit hundreds of targets in Iran under ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and combat operations will continue in full force until all objectives are complete.
  • US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic and that he had three very good choices for Iran's next leader, although he also commented that the people he considered for Iran's next leader died in the air attacks.
  • US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT. White House separately announced that US Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth are to brief a full Congress on Tuesday.
  • US officials told Al Jazeera that the strikes on Iran are focused on military targets and will be far more extensive than the US strikes last June, while the US reported that three US service members died and five were seriously wounded amid the operations against Iran.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said the US and Israel operations are to remove the existential threat from the Iranian regime, while Israeli officials characterised the action as a “pre-emptive strike” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel ordered the shutdown of some natural gas fields as a security measure following the US-Israel strike on Iran, while it pre-approved a USD 2.9bln supplement to the defence budget to fund the war with Iran.

Trade/Tariffs 

  • India's Foreign Ministry announces that they have signed an uranium supply agreement with Canada.
  • Singapore and South Korea are in talks to upgrade a free trade agreement.

 A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly pressured as all focus centred on geopolitics following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed its Supreme Leader and dozens of officials, while Iran responded with retaliatory strikes against the US and allies, including several neighbours in the Gulf. ASX 200 was rangebound with weakness seen in tech, financial and airlines stocks as the latter got a double whammy from flight disruptions and higher fuel costs, while energy stocks benefitted from the surge in oil due to the Iran conflict.
Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 58,000 level as exporters suffered from the worsening geopolitical climate and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which the IRGC shut.  Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with heavy losses in Hong Kong due to tech weakness, while the mainland shrugged off early jitters and climbed ahead of the annual 'two sessions' in Beijing, where top officials are set to unveil economic strategies.

Top Asian News

  • China overhauled a key micro credit program in which the focus is shifting to longer-term income support for rural households from a prior focus on poverty alleviation.
  • Macau gaming revenue in February rose 4.5% Y/Y to MOP 20.6bln (exp. 1% growth).
  • DeepSeek is to release the long-awaited DeepSeek 4 model in the week ahead.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.3%) are entirely in the red due to instability in the Middle East. In brief, the US-Israeli war with Iran has entered its third day, with all sides conducting large-scale airstrikes. Airspaces have been closed, oil refineries and tankers have been hit, and threats of further attacks continue (see "Iran Situation Report - Day 3" on the headline feed for more detailed analysis). The FTSE 100 (-1.0%) is being supported, albeit posting slight losses, helped by the major oil names (BP +1.8%, Shell +2.2%) as oil prices rise. The banking-heavy IBEX 35 (-2.2%) and FTSE MIB (-1.7%) have been hit the hardest on the prospect of increased war-risk claims.
From a sectoral perspective, Energy leads the pile, given the strength in underlying oil prices; Defence names are also stronger across the board, given the increased tensions; Rheinmetall +1.3%, BAE +5.2%, Leonardo +4.7%. One other key space of the market that has benefited is shipping names such as Maersk (+4.5%), Kuehne+Nagel (+0.4%), due to higher freight rates. US equity futures (ES -1.0%, NQ -1.4%, RTY -1.4%) have followed the global risk tone; in recent trade, contracts are attempting to rebound off worst levels, though remain significantly in the red. ASML (ASML NA) is planning to expand into advanced packaging for AI chips, and is exploring larger chip sizes and scanner systems

Top European News

  • Top academics warned that planned cuts to physics and astronomy funding risk undermining a key government strategy to harness innovation to boost economic growth, according to FT.

FX

  • DXY gains but trades off best levels as participants flock to the USD in light of the weekend geopolitics, with the initial US-Israel strike on Iran expanding throughout the Gulf and Middle East. Analysts at ING highlight three main channels that keep the USD in demand: 1) the US is less dependent on imported energy vs Europe and most of Asia. Higher energy hurts importers (EUR, JPY), whilst European Nat Gas opened up around 25%. 2) Markets are scaling back expectations for rate cuts from the Fed, with higher energy also proving headwinds for disinflation. A “bearish flattening” in the US yield curve (short-end yields rising) supports the dollar. 3) Higher energy and reduced Fed easing expectations could reverse capital flows into EM, which would further support the USD. DXY is around the middle of a 97.768-98.566 range after hitting highs around an hour after the European cash open.
  • GBP is the worst performer amid the RAF base in Cyprus being struck by an Iranian drone. The UK has confirmed it is not participating in offensive operations but is permitting defensive use of bases. GBP/USD slipped from a 1.3456 peak to a 1.3314 trough.
  • EUR has been hit by the aforementioned surge in energy prices, with EUR/USD slumping from near 1.1800 to lows of 1.1698 before trimming losses at the time of writing. ING suggests EUR/USD could slide back toward the 1.1575–1.1600 area if escalation continues.
  • JPY and CHF are softer despite their haven appeals, with the USD sought after given its reduced dependency on energy imports. USD/JPY is +0.6% in a 156.04-157.25 range. USD/CHF trades +0.5% in a 0.7668-0.7742 parameter.
  • Antipodeans also post losses amid their high-beta properties and sensitivity to risk. AUD/USD resides in a 0.7032-0.7117 range and NZD/USD in a 0.5928-0.5995 band.

Fixed Income

  • USTs opened higher, then jumped to a session high of 114-12, before quickly paring much of the upside as the APAC session progressed. The narrative quickly shifted from “haven” related upside, to traders assessing and then pricing in the inflationary impacts of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This impacts both: a) energy prices, b) prices of goods which are subject to longer trading routes, as shipping giants avoid the chokepoint. From a central banking perspective, inflationary pressures could see policymakers shift hawkishly – though, Danske Bank suggested that the Fed is unlikely to trigger speculations of near-term policy shifts following the rise in energy prices. Geopols aside, the US ISM manufacturing survey for February is expected to be little changed at 52.3 (from 52.6). The Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow tracking estimate, which is currently modelling growth of 3.0% in Q1. Later in the session, the Fed will publish its Senior Loan Officer Survey. USTs currently trade around 113-23 within a 113-22+ to 114-12 range.
  • Bunds moving in-line with peers and currently trading around 130.05 to 130.53 range. Price action is similar to the above, initial haven flows buoyed German paper, before markets began factoring in inflationary impacts. Danske expect short-term widening Schatz spreads, but the bank highlights that safe-haven inflows are often short-lived and modest.
  • Gilts are underperforming, and trades lower by around 30 ticks within a 93.31 to 93.57 range. Underperformance, which perhaps can be explained given that the region is a net-importer of oil, and as such has long been considered highly vulnerable to energy volatility. Elsewhere, ahead of this week’s UK Spring Statement, Chancellor Reeves has received a GBP 22bln windfall as tax receipts outperformed forecasts, according to Bloomberg; analysis of official data showed stronger than expected self-assessed income tax and sales levy revenues, alongside lower debt-interest spending, contributing to the improvement in the public finances.

Commodities

  • Crude futures surged at the reopen in reaction to the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East owing to the strikes against Iran and the killing of its Supreme Leader, as well as its retaliation against the US and several neighbours in the Gulf, while it also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (Newsquawk analysis available on the feed). However, prices waned off their opening highs as Brent returned to beneath the USD 80/bbl and WTI briefly retreated to below 70/bbl levels before recovering, with Brent May'26 currently within USD 74.54-80.82/bbl (+6.2% at the time of writing) and WTI Apr'26 within USD 71.88-75.33/bbl (+7.3% at the time of writing).
  • Spot gold rallied on a haven bid amid the weekend geopolitics (Newsquawk analysis available on the feed) but then mildly pulled back after stalling just shy of the USD 5,400/oz level in APAC trade, before mounting the level to a USD 5,419.15/oz peak. Spot silver hit a USD 92.42/oz peak from a USD 92.02/oz trough.
  • Copper futures ultimately weakened overnight but trades flat in European hours, in choppy trade amid the mostly negative risk appetite in the region, with all focus on geopolitics. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,249.60-13,444/t range at the time of writing.
  • OPEC+ is to resume oil output increases, in which it will add 206k bpd in April. It had been previously reported over the weekend that OPEC+ could consider a larger production hike of as much as 441k bpd following the strike on Iran.
  • IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. Furthermore, analysts warned of a potential Brent crude move above USD 100/bbl if the blockade persists.
  • Oil facilities of regional countries are not Iran's targets, via Mehr.
  • Chevron (CVX) said it was instructed by Israel's Ministry of Energy to temporarily shut-in production at the Leviathan gas production platform.
  • Middle East crude benchmark Dubai's premium rises to around USD 5.90/bbl, the highest since 2022, sources say.
  • IAEA Director General Grossi said we have no indication that any of Iran's nuclear installations have been damaged or hit. The situation is very concerning, cannot rule out a possible radiological release with serious consequences. No elevation of radiation levels above the usual background levels have been detected so far in countries neighbouring Iran.
  • Saudi Energy Ministry says limited fire at Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, no impact on supplies.
  • The limited fire at Ras Tanura refinery was due to shrapnel falling during an interception operation, Al Hadath reported.

Central Banks

  • BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said to raise rates if economic outlook is met, adds the goal is to maintain price stability by avoiding excessive inflation and deflation, thereby supporting sustainable economic growth. said:Impact of rate hikes has been limited so far.
  • SNB states that in view of the international situation, we are more prepared to intervene in the FX market.
  • Swiss Sight Deposits (w/e Mar 1). Domestic Banks CHF 440.5bln (prev. 440.6bln), Total CHF 459.8bln (prev. 457.6bln).

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israeli military says it has begun additional strikes on Tehran.
  • Qatar Defence Ministry says it intercepted two Iranian drones, which targeted energy facilties; one drone headed towards QatarEnergy's Raf Laffan facility
  • "Israel army said there is no reason for Lebanon ground invasion for now", via Al Arabiya citing AFP.
  • Israel's IDF said "We are discussing the option of carrying out a ground operation inside Lebanon", via Al Jazeera.
  • Iran's ambassador to the IAEA said Israel and the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday.
  • Iran's Larijani said they will not negotiate with the US.
  • Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Larijani said US President Trump has brought chaos to the region with "false whims" and is now worried of more casualties among US forces. Trump is sacrificing American soldiers for Israel's quest for power.
  • Iran warns that those responsible for killing Supreme Leader Khamenei will face consequences.
  • US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic, according to New York Times. said:He had three very good choices for next Iran leader.
  • US President Trump said the people he considered for Iran's next leader died in the air attacks, according to ABC News.
  • US President Trump said Iran does not want to go quite far enough and it's too bad and are not happy with Iran negotiation.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio designating Iran as state sponsor of wrongful detention; Iran must stop taking hostages; will consider other measures if Iran does not stop.
  • US State Department said no American should travel to Iran for any reason and reiterate their call for Americans who are currently in Iran to leave immediately.
  • Hezbollah reportedly fires rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, according to Israel Broadcasting Corporation.
  • Omani Foreign Minister said "The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never, ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb...", according to CBS interviewing Albusaidi. "

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Ukraine President Zelensky says long war in Iran may impact air defence for Ukraine.
  • Russia is said to consider a halt in peace talks unless Ukraine cedes land. Talks planned for the week ahead will be decisive on whether or not the sides can agree on terms to end the war, while Russia will likely walk away if Ukrainian President Zelensky fails to make the concession.
  • A fuel terminal in Russia's Novorossiysk is on fire, according to local authorities.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45 am: United States Feb F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 51.35, prior 51.2
  • 10:00 am: United States Feb ISM Manufacturing, est. 51.5, prior 52.6
  • 10:00 am: United States Feb ISM Prices Paid, est. 60, prior 59

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Those who read my EMR on Friday will appreciate that frantic emails around a major international conflict were an interesting additional challenge to try to squeeze into a packed weekend of “daddy childcare”. By now, there is little point in recapping much of the news around the strikes on Iran, so instead we’ll jump straight into the latest market reaction.

As regular readers will know from the work we have shared from DB's Binky Chadha, the negative market impact of notable geopolitical events is usually measured in only days and weeks, and you could argue that the market has increasingly realised this and now reacts less to big geopolitical events than it may have done a few years ago. However, one persistent risk is always a prolonged impact on the oil price. As such, that is the main market to watch today and for the duration of this episode. How firmly, or officially closed, the Strait of Hormuz remains will probably play a big part in this. 

So far, Brent is about +7% higher at $77.60/bbl as I type this morning, having briefly been as high as $82 as trading in Asia opened. The spike comes as tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz has largely stopped with Iran having attacked three oil tankers over the weekend, though Iran’s foreign minister said on Sunday that Iran was not seeking to close the strait. There is a view that ahead of the mid-terms, the US administration will do what they can to ensure Iran struggles to block the Strait for long. Investors will also be watching the extent of damage to Iran’s oil export facilities. 

Meanwhile, OPEC+ yesterday announced a supply increase of 206k barrels a day in April, following an increase of 137k a day in December. This is a decent rise, but it would not change the bigger picture if there were a sizeable disruption to oil flows.

With most markets closed over the weekend, Bitcoin served as a barometer of sentiment and immediately dropped around -4% when news of the attacks broke early London time on Saturday morning. From these lows, it rebounded around 7% through Saturday and into Sunday as mounting speculation that Supreme Leader Khamenei had been killed was confirmed. This raised hopes of a decisive operation with an obvious ending. As things stand, Bitcoin is about -2% down off these highs, but still +2% above where we were just before the strikes.

Market sentiment bounced shortly after the Asia open amid some more encouraging reporting. According to the New York Times, Trump said that he was open to lifting sanctions on Iran if its new leadership was pragmatic though he also said that the US could keep up its campaign against Iran for “four to five weeks”. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council who’s seen as leading Iran’s current effort, made a fresh push to resume nuclear talks with Washington via Omani mediators. However Larijani has poured some cold water on this on X, stating that “We will not negotiate with the United States.” This has taken oil off its lows for the session.

With the US unlikely to put boots on the ground, it’s not clear if full regime change is achievable and its outcome would be highly unpredictable, which naturally leaves questions of whether a negotiated resolution can still be found. At the same time, we’ve seen a widening of the conflict to Lebanon overnight, with Israel striking targets in the country after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel.

So that all leaves global markets with a clear but not extreme risk-off reaction this morning. S&P 500 futures are down -0.81% from Friday’s close, with those on the STOXX 50 down a larger -1.47%. Note that Europe is more negatively exposed to higher energy prices, including also possible disruptions to LNG shipments from the Gulf. Meanwhile, in Asia, the Hang Seng (-1.59%) and the Nikkei (-1.51%) are among the worst performers, also affected by declines in technology stocks. The Shanghai Comp has turned positive (+0.33%). In FX, the dollar index is +0.29% higher, while the Swiss Franc is the best performing G10 currency amid the safe-haven demand. And gold is +1.41% higher. For Treasuries, yields initially opened a touch lower amid the safe-haven bid but this has quickly reversed this morning with the 10yr +2.8bps higher at 3.97%, after ending last week at post-2024 lows. So overall fairly measured response in Asia to the weekend events. 

Outside the obvious and huge attention on the Middle East, the key focus this week will be on the US jobs report on Friday, retail sales on the same day, the ISM indices (today and Wednesday), and the Fed’s Beige Book, also due on Wednesday. European releases will include inflation data tomorrow and the ECB’s accounts of their February meeting on Thursday. Various global PMIs are also out this week.
In politics, highlights include the Two Sessions in China as well as the Spring Statement in the UK. Earnings reports will be due from Costco and Broadcom.

Delving deeper into the US data, the most important release in the week ahead is Friday’s February employment report. Our economists forecast headline payroll growth of 30k, down from 130k previously, with private payrolls rising by 50k after January’s unusually strong 172k gain. The moderation largely reflects payback from outsized hiring last month in private education and health services and construction, where job gains more than doubled their six month averages. Elsewhere in the establishment survey, our economists expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.4% month over month, unchanged from January, while the average workweek remains steady at 34.3 hours.

The household survey adds an additional layer of uncertainty this month, as the BLS implements its delayed annual population controls. Our economists forecast the unemployment rate at 4.3%, though risks around this estimate are elevated in both directions. January data will also be revised using the new controls, and attention will be focused on whether these adjustments meaningfully alter unemployment rates across demographic groups, particularly among younger cohorts, where concerns around entry level hiring remain heightened.
Friday also brings January retail sales, where weather related weakness in auto sales is likely to weigh on the headline figure. Our economists expect headline sales to decline 0.6%, with sales excluding autos down 0.1%, partly reflecting lower gasoline prices. That said, retail control sales are forecast to rebound by 0.3%, pointing to a firmer underlying pace of goods consumption. Tax refunds should provide additional support to spending in coming months, with the average refund running meaningfully higher than a year ago.

Ahead of Friday, several other releases will help set the tone. Our economists expect today’s manufacturing ISM to edge up to 53.1 from 52.6. Wednesday brings the ADP employment report, forecast at 50k (though seasonals might push it higher), alongside the non manufacturing ISM, seen at 54.0.

Other notable data include February unit motor vehicle sales tomorrow, which our economists expect at 15.1 million, potentially restrained again by adverse weather. Thursday’s preliminary Q4 productivity and unit labour cost figures are forecast at 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.
Moving to Europe, the focus will continue to be on inflation, with February prints due for the Eurozone and Italy tomorrow, Switzerland on Wednesday, and Sweden on Thursday. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde today, and the central bank will release the accounts of its February meeting on Thursday.

In the UK, attention will be on the Spring Statement delivered by the Chancellor tomorrow, and our UK economist previews it here. There will also be the February DMP survey from the BoE on Thursday.

Over in Asia, the spotlight will be on China’s annual Two Sessions starting Wednesday (running through March 11), followed by the National People’s Congress session opening on Thursday, with the 15th Five Year Plan expected. Elsewhere, data highlights will include the February PMIs, both the official and private gauges, in China on Wednesday.

In Japan, our Chief Japan economist highlights the Shunto wage demands due on Thursday as the most anticipated event next week and expects wage demands this year to come in at 6.0%. There will also be the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations (MoF survey) for Q4 on Tuesday, as well as the February consumer sentiment index on Wednesday. For more detail and forecasts, see our Chief Japan economist’s week ahead for the country here.

Earnings will include tech firms Broadcom, CrowdStrike and Marvell. US consumer firms will continue to be in focus, with reports from Costco and Target.

Looking back at last week, which now feels like a long time ago, the main theme was the ongoing AI disruption narrative, which continued to affect a range of assets. In part, this reflected the now infamous memo from Citrini Research, which outlined a hypothetical scenario in which AI adoption drove the US unemployment rate into double digits by mid 2028. We also had Nvidia’s earnings, which once again failed to deliver the kind of positive surprise markets had grown used to in 2023–24, even as they beat analysts’ estimates. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 fell -0.44% (-0.43% on Friday), with the Magnificent 7 down -1.80% (-1.41% on Friday). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -1.96% (-1.21% on Friday), ending a run of 10 consecutive weekly gains.

Performance outside the US was notably stronger. The STOXX 600 posted a fifth consecutive weekly gain of +0.52% (+0.11% on Friday), closing at a record high. In Japan, the Nikkei rose +3.56% (+0.16% on Friday) to also hit a new record, taking its year to date gains to +16.91%.

The biggest news on Friday was rising concern about a possible US strike against Iran, which added further upward pressure on oil prices. Brent crude ended the week up +1.00% (+2.45% on Friday) at a seven month high of $72.48/bbl. It was also another strong week for precious metals, with gold prices up +3.36% (+1.81%) in their fourth consecutive weekly gain, and both are obviously seeing significant action again this morning.

Finally, in fixed income, sovereign bonds benefited from the broader caution. Ten year Treasury yields fell -14.4bps last week (-6.4bps on Friday) to 3.94%, their lowest level since October 2024. In Europe there were similar moves, with 10 year Bund yields down -9.4bps last week (-4.7bps on Friday) to 2.64%, marking their biggest weekly decline since April last year around the Liberation Day turmoil. Credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, with US high yield up +21bps (+9bps on Friday) and US investment grade up +7bps (+2bps on Friday), their biggest weekly widening since the Liberation Day tariffs. In Europe, high yield widened +13bps (+5bps on Friday), while investment grade widened +5bps (+3bps on Friday).

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 08:39

Trust In The US Government Has Plunged From 77% To 17%

Trust In The US Government Has Plunged From 77% To 17%

Over the past seven decades, Americans’ trust in the federal government has dropped from postwar highs to historic lows.

In 1964, 77% said they trusted Washington to do what is right most of the time.

As of September 2025, that figure stands at just 17%.

The chart below, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, tracks this long-term shift, using data from Pew Research Center.

While trust has occasionally surged during moments of national crisis, the broader trajectory shows a steady erosion across generations.

From Postwar Highs to Vietnam-Era Decline

Trust peaked in 1964, when 77% of Americans said they trusted the federal government most of the time. Even in 1958, nearly three-quarters of the public expressed confidence in the federal government.

That began to change in the late 1960s and early 1970s. By 1970, trust had fallen to 54%, and it slipped further to 36% by 1974 in the aftermath of Watergate.

The Vietnam War, political scandals, and economic turbulence reshaped public opinion for decades to come.

Date Trust the government (%) 9/28/2025 17 2/9/2025 19 5/19/2024 18 6/11/2023 19 05/01/2022 20 4/11/2021 21 8/2/2020 24 4/12/2020 21 3/25/2019 17 12/04/2017 18 4/11/2017 19 10/04/2015 18 7/20/2014 19 2/26/2014 18 11/15/2013 20 10/13/2013 19 5/31/2013 20 02/06/2013 22 1/13/2013 23 10/31/2012 19 10/19/2011 17 10/04/2011 15 9/23/2011 18 8/21/2011 21 2/28/2011 23 10/21/2010 23 10/01/2010 21 09/06/2010 23 09/01/2010 23 04/05/2010 23 04/05/2010 22 3/21/2010 24 2/12/2010 22 02/05/2010 21 1/10/2010 20 12/20/2009 21 8/31/2009 22 6/12/2009 23 12/21/2008 25 10/15/2008 24 10/13/2008 24 07/09/2007 24 01/09/2007 28 10/08/2006 29 9/15/2006 30 02/05/2006 31 1/20/2006 33 01/06/2006 32 12/02/2005 32 9/11/2005 31 09/09/2005 30 6/19/2005 35 10/15/2004 39 7/15/2004 41 3/21/2004 38 10/26/2003 36 7/27/2003 43 10/15/2002 46 09/04/2002 46 09/02/2002 40 7/13/2002 40 6/17/2002 43 1/24/2002 46 12/07/2001 49 10/25/2001 54 10/06/2001 49 1/17/2001 44 10/31/2000 38 10/15/2000 42 07/09/2000 39 04/02/2000 38 2/14/2000 34 10/03/1999 36 9/14/1999 33 5/16/1999 33 2/21/1999 31 2/12/1999 32 02/04/1999 34 1/10/1999 34 01/03/1999 37 12/01/1998 33 11/15/1998 30 11/01/1998 26 10/26/1998 28 8/10/1998 31 2/22/1998 35 02/01/1998 33 1/25/1998 32 1/19/1998 32 10/31/1997 31 8/27/1997 31 06/01/1997 26 1/14/1997 27 11/02/1996 27 10/15/1996 28 5/12/1996 31 05/06/1996 29 11/19/1995 27 08/07/1995 22 08/05/1995 21 3/19/1995 20 2/22/1995 21 12/01/1994 21 10/29/1994 22 10/23/1994 20 06/06/1994 19 1/30/1994 20 1/20/1994 22 3/24/1993 25 1/17/1993 25 1/14/1993 25 10/23/1992 25 10/15/1992 25 06/08/1992 29 10/20/1991 35 03/06/1991 42 03/01/1991 46 1/27/1991 40 12/01/1990 33 10/28/1990 32 09/06/1990 35 1/16/1990 38 6/29/1989 39 1/15/1989 41 11/10/1988 43 10/15/1988 41 1/23/1988 40 10/18/1987 43 06/01/1987 43 03/01/1987 44 1/21/1987 43 1/19/1987 42 12/01/1986 44 11/30/1986 43 09/09/1986 44 1/19/1986 44 11/06/1985 43 7/29/1985 42 3/21/1985 40 2/27/1985 42 2/22/1985 45 11/14/1984 44 10/15/1984 41 12/01/1982 39 11/07/1980 32 10/15/1980 30 3/12/1980 27 11/03/1979 28 12/01/1978 31 10/23/1977 32 4/25/1977 34 10/15/1976 36 09/05/1976 35 6/15/1976 35 03/01/1976 34 02/08/1976 35 12/01/1974 36 10/15/1972 53 12/01/1970 54 10/15/1968 62 12/01/1966 65 10/15/1964 77 12/01/1958 73 Temporary Surges During National Crises

Although the long-term trend is downward, trust has occasionally rebounded during moments of national unity. After the 9/11 attacks, trust jumped from 44% to 54% in a matter of months. It was one of the last times a majority expressed confidence in Washington.

Similar, though smaller, increases occurred during other crises. In early 2020, trust briefly rose to 24% amid the COVID-19 outbreak. However, these bumps have proven short-lived, with trust quickly returning to lower levels.

A New Era of Persistent Low Trust

Since the mid-2000s, trust in government has rarely crossed the 30% mark. In the 2010s and early 2020s, it often dipped below 20%.

As of September 2025, just 17% of Americans say they trust the federal government most of the time — near the lowest level recorded in Pew’s time series.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out America’s Growing Mountain of Debt on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 07:20

Poland Plans Social Media Ban For Under-15s

Poland Plans Social Media Ban For Under-15s

Three months after Australia banned minors under the age of 16 from accessing social media, Poland is preparing to do the same thing.

A 14-year-old boy poses at his home near Gosford as he looks at social media on his mobile phone in New South Wales, Australia, on Oct. 24, 2025. David Gray/AFP via Getty Images

A bill is currently being prepared by the largest party in Poland's ruling Civic Coalition Party that would prohibit children under the age of 15 from using social media platforms, and would require tech companies to verify users' ages. 

Education Minister Barbara Nowacka laid out the plan on Friday, which include fines of up to 6% of the worldwide (global) revenue of social media companies if their services remain accessible to under-15s. 

"We need to limit access to social media for children under 15. At the same time, we need to work on mental health and raise awareness among children, parents, and the entire Polish society about the dangers of social media," Nowacka said. 

If sped through legislation, Poland's bill could take effect as early as 2027, however the coalition hasn't fully signed off yet, and it will undoubtedly face legal pushback from US tech giants. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, on Dec. 10, Australia became the first country to impose nationwide restrictions on minors accessing social media, banning those under 16 from a dozen platforms.

The restrictions were brought in amid concerns over mental health, online harms, and screen addiction affecting Australian children.

Poland is the latest country in the European Union to say it was planning to introduce a ban or some other form of restriction, with other member states similarly citing concerns over children’s mental health.

In France, legislation is moving through parliament to ban children younger than age 15 from accessing social media platforms. Denmark and Slovenia are likewise looking at bans for under-15s.

Spain will follow Australia in banning social media for minors under age 16.

Portugal is taking a different approach. Rather than introducing an outright ban on children under a certain age from accessing social media, it aims to require explicit parental consent for children aged 13 to 16 to access the platforms.

Other countries around the world are making similar plans, including Malaysia, which says it will ban social media accounts for children younger than age 16 this year.

‘Age-Gating’ Social Media

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a series of new proposals earlier this month aimed at protecting young people from social media addiction, including a proposed ban for under-16s, subject to a public consultation.

Some measures by the UK and the EU to curb online harms have led to tensions with the United States, home of many big tech companies, around issues of free speech and regulatory overreach.

Privacy and free speech advocates, such as UK-based Open Rights Group, say that a social media ban for under-16s would be an ineffective response to online harms.

The Open Rights Group says it would lead to “age-gating” across all social media platforms, requiring users to prove their age.

“Protecting children online should not mean building a surveillance infrastructure for everyone,” Open Rights Group spokesman James Baker said.

“We need regulation that puts users back in control, not policies that force people to trade their privacy and voice for access to modern life.”

Rachel Roberts and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 04:15

Gulf States Say They've Shot Down More Than 1,500 Iranian Missiles, Drones

Gulf States Say They've Shot Down More Than 1,500 Iranian Missiles, Drones

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Five Persian Gulf nations that host U.S. military installations claim they have collectively shot down more than 1,500 Iranian missiles and drones since the United States and Israel launched their joint attack at 9:45 a.m. Tehran time on Feb. 28.

A plume of smoke rises from a reported Iranian strike in the industrial district of Doha on March 1, 2026. Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images

The United Arab Emirates (UAE)—whose forces have battled Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen—has borne the brunt of the Iranian attacks.

While numbers are fluid and reported timelines varied, as of 6 p.m. ET on March 1—2:30 a.m. March 2 in Iran—the UAE Ministry of Defense reported it had knocked down 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and more than 540 drones.

Debris from destroyed projectiles crashed into several Abu Dhabi residential neighborhoods, killing at least one civilian, the ministry reported, also stating that at least three people have been killed in Iranian strikes in UAE.

The attacks are “a blatant violation of national sovereignty and international law,” the ministry said in a statement, warning UAE would “take all necessary measures to protect its territory, citizens and residents, and to safeguard its sovereignty, security and stability.”

Bahrain’s military said March 1 that its air defense systems had intercepted at least 45 missiles and nine drones, with the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama and a British navy base specifically targeted.

No casualties were reported at the U.S. and UK bases. British forces reported shooting down a drone in Manama. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on March 1 said the British have accepted a U.S, request to use its bases across the Middle East, including its large air base in Cyprus, to strike Iranian missile launchers.

Kuwait’s military reported it shot down nearly 100 missiles and almost 300 drones during the first 24 to 36 hours of the conflict.

The Iranian attacks focused on Ali Al-Salem Air Base where American and other international forces are stationed. Drones also struck Kuwait International Airport on Feb. 28, causing minor injuries and “limited damage.”

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani, however, told Italian news outlet ANSA that a Kuwait International Airport runway sustained extensive damage.

Qatar’s Ministry of Defense said it shot down 65 ballistic missiles and at least 12 drones fired at it from Iran. “We possess the full ability to protect the country and fend off any external threat,” the Qatari ministry said, adding Qatar is “secure and stable,” although the country’s air space has been temporary closed to commercial traffic.

Two ballistic missiles struck the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base causing no reported casualties and little damage, while a drone strike disabled an early warning radar installation.

Most U.S. Air Force airmen and aircraft normally stationed at Al-Udeid, including KC-135s in-flight refueling jets, C-17A Globemaster transports, and C-130 Hercules airlift transports, were moved to other bases in the Mediterranean and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in the days preceding the attack.

Jordan’s armed forces reported March 1 that they had intercepted 13 ballistic missiles and knocked down nearly 50 drones targeting U.S. forces at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base.

“The armed forces engaged 49 drones and ballistic missiles targeting Jordanian territory today,” the Jordanian armed forces said in a statement, adding “13 ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted by Jordanian air defense systems, while drones were shot down.”

An undetermined number of missile and drone attacks have also been reported in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Syria.

U.S. forces at Harir Air Base in Erbil in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan area were attacked with missiles and drones with no casualties and little damage reported. British forces report they knocked down several missiles in Iraq.

ZeroPointNow Mon, 03/02/2026 - 03:30

UK, France, Germany Slam Iran For 'Reckless' Retaliation - Are Ready To Assist Israel And US

UK, France, Germany Slam Iran For 'Reckless' Retaliation - Are Ready To Assist Israel And US

Leaders from Germany, the UK and France are waving their fists over Iran's "reckless" retaliatory strikes in the region, and say they're ready to throw down to stop Tehran from further responses. 

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer makes a statement from Downing Street in central London on Feb. 28, 2026, following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Jonathan Brady/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

On Sunday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron stood in solidarity, saying in a joint statement that they were "appalled" by Iran's "reckless" retaliatory strikes that targeted not only US and Israeli military sites in the region - but other allies as well (Dubai got the business, among others). 

"We will take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source," the statement reads. "We have agreed to work together with the US and allies in the region on this matter." 

British forces have already engaged - with a Typhoon fighter jet shooting down an Iranian drone with an air-to-air missile during a defensive air patrol in Qatar. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, Starmer addressed his nation on the matter later on March 1, revealing that he also granted a request from the United States to use UK bases in the region to attack Iranian missile sites. But he affirmed that this did not mean that he was tasking British armed forces to join the United States in offensive action.

“Iran has launched sustained attacks across the region, at countries who did not attack them,” Starmer said. ”They’ve hit airports and hotels where British citizens are staying. This is clearly a dangerous situation.”

The prime minister noted that at least 200,000 British citizens were in the Middle East, including residents, families on vacation, and others in transit.

He defended his government’s decision to allow the United States to use British bases to attack Iranian missile launchers and storage depots, calling it a “defensive” action and saying the only way the threat will be stopped is by destroying the missiles at their source.

“Iran is pursuing a scorched earth strategy, so we are supporting the collective self-defense of our allies and our people in the region, because that is our duty to the British people,” Starmer said.

Meanwhile, Merz announced on X that he would meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on March 3 to discuss the latest developments, noting that he remained in close contact with other European powers, Israel, and the affected region.

“Now is not the time for finger-pointing, but for unity and joint action,” he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 02:45

When The Return Flight Is The Only Goal: Merz Ends China Trip

When The Return Flight Is The Only Goal: Merz Ends China Trip

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

It took some time for the supposed difference between Annalena Baerbock’s feminist foreign policy and the approach that the diplomatic corps under Chancellor Friedrich Merz would take to become clear. What has changed is less the substance than the performative act. Under the Sauerland-born Merz, tone and gestures shifted—the staging is meant to appear more masculine, sober in style, perhaps more professional, less embarrassingly activist—but the content remains largely unchanged.

Ironically, arch-enemy Donald Trump became the spiritus rector of a new theatrical element in the Chancellor’s media showcase. In Trump-style, Friedrich Merz announced on February 25 the climax of his China trip: the conclusion of a major order for the European aerospace giant Airbus. China will acquire 120 aircraft, models A320, A350—details to follow later—ordered from the company that has become the most successful “success child” of the European project.

The Chinese hosts are politely attentive: they don’t let the Chancellor return home empty-handed and grant him quick fame in the 2026 super-election year. Images, headlines, pathos—the stage is set. The Chancellor as doer, as promoter of German and European interests, as a foreign-policy acquirer in global competition—a German Donald Trump?

A sober look at the numbers puts the theatrics in perspective. Year after year, Chinese customers fill Airbus’s order books with hundreds of aircraft. Major orders from China are no exception; they are part of a long-established procurement rhythm. Demand is structural, not spontaneous—the production slots had long been planned and coincided with the Chancellor’s trip by chance.

A media storm in Trump-style, with the small but crucial difference that the U.S. president returns from foreign trips with real investments in his industry’s production capacity. Factories are built, sites expanded, capital flows measurably into American value creation. Whatever the magic formula—tariffs, deregulated economy, robust growth—America attracts real investments, binding capital and industrial substance domestically.

Friedrich Merz, by contrast, presents routine industrial orders as personal triumphs. He frames scheduled large orders as the result of his diplomatic prowess—a German deal-maker in action. But the crucial difference is that for career politician Merz, only media impact counts. One brings production capacity home; the other brings press releases.

Let’s credit Merz: his trip falls during a critical election phase. In such moments, images, gestures, and quickly digestible wins matter. Fleeting triumphs feed the narrative of the doer in the chancellery, regardless of catastrophic domestic performance.

It is also reassuring that Germany continues to receive the highest protocol honors in China and that Beijing evidently values German history more than the sad present. Reception in the Great Hall of the People by Premier Li Qiang, a personal audience with President Xi Jinping, evening dinner, military welcome at the airport. The choreography is flawless: flags, honor guards, carefully staged images. Protocol-wise, Germany still plays in the Champions League.

Geopolitically, however, the picture is different. Merz called China a “strategic partner” before the trip without defining what this means in the current world situation. Beijing firmly backs Moscow in the Ukraine war. How does the Chancellor think the EU’s 20 sanction packages against Russia affect relations with Beijing? Every new measure against Russia is not just a signal to the Kremlin but also a geopolitical marker toward China.

Merz could personally observe China’s perspective on Germany and the EU’s growing isolation in geopolitics. Protocol pomp does not reverse strategic erosion. From Beijing’s perspective, the question is simple: what offer should one make to a delegation from a country that has weakened its industrial base through self-inflicted dismantling while simultaneously complaining about trade disadvantages?

The consequences of European eco-socialism are immense. Germany has become a net importer of capital in trade with China. The trade balance increasingly tilts against it. In key industrial sectors, competitive advantages have eroded; energy-intensive value creation is under pressure.

Against this backdrop, sympathy for the Chancellor and his economic representatives is limited. The misery is homegrown. Every new regulation, levy, or transformation mandate tightens industry further, reducing Germany’s flexibility in global competition.

In China—a political dictatorship under a single party but economically largely guided by market efficiency—German-European moralizing meets maximum incomprehension. There, scale effects, productivity, market share, and technological sovereignty matter. Moral self-assurance does not replace industrial strength.

Merz lamented unfair Chinese trade practices given Germany’s deep trade deficit. Market access must be fair, disadvantages avoided. The words sound determined, aimed at reciprocity in global trade. And they sound naive.

Because isn’t it worth asking whether Europeans have long been world champions of hidden protectionism? Whether German and European policies repeatedly sparked the grotesque race toward emission-free economies via maximal repression? Regulatory hurdles, taxonomies, supply-chain laws, CO₂ border adjustments—all form a dense mesh of indirect market barriers.

It is by no means China’s fault that Germany’s economic propulsion—industry, engineering, machinery, automotive—has, under EU regulations and energy-transition fanaticism, disassembled at accelerated speed. Those who systematically eliminate their own cost advantages lose ground globally and geopolitically.

Merz exemplifies a European political class eager to blame external actors for structural weaknesses. He is living proof that Europe and Germany have a long way to go before a brutally honest assessment of problems.

Flattering China and the apparent alignment on population surveillance and censorship expansion makes Europe, at best, an unloved vassal of Beijing.

Europe, as a cultural entity, should seek salvation in alignment with Americans. In the bastion of free markets, deregulation, and rational energy policy—in the land of ICE and Christian-humanist cohesion—lies the most likely, only acceptable future for European policy.

China sees Europe as a dumping ground for surplus production—Europe as a decaying heir of the colonial era. European markets absorb domestic overcapacity. Structural dependency on resources like rare earths and energy grows. The leverage is not in Europe.

The era of European dominance is over. Moral self-assertion against factual dependence? Helpless. Puerile. Expensively paid.

Friedrich Merz’s visit to China was a campaign appearance for the CDU. He followed diplomatic protocols but was substantively unremarkable. The images were staged; strategic impact remains limited. Europe deserves better policy.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 02:00

Is The US Military Campaign Against Iran Part Of Trump's Grand Strategy Against China?

Is The US Military Campaign Against Iran Part Of Trump's Grand Strategy Against China?

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The goal is to obtain proxy control over Iran’s enormous oil and gas reserves so that they can be weaponized as leverage against China for coercing it into a lopsided trade deal that would derail its superpower rise and therefore restore US-led unipolarity.

Trump claimed that the US’ military campaign against Iran is to “defend the American people”, while many critics have alleged (whether in jest or not) that it’s to distract from the Epstein Files, but few observers realize that it’s actually all about China. It was explained here that Trump 2.0 “decided to gradually deprive China of access to markets and resources, ideally through a series of trade deals, in order to imbue the US with the indirect leverage required to peacefully derail China’s superpower rise.”

To elaborate, “The US’ trade deals with the EU and India could ultimately result in them curtailing China’s access to their markets under pain of punitive tariffs if they refuse. In parallel, the US’ special operation in Venezuela, pressure on Iran, and simultaneous attempts to subordinate Nigeria and other leading energy producers could curtail China’s access to the resources required for fueling its superpower rise.”

The resource dimension that’s relevant to Iran is a major part of the US’ “Strategy of Denial”.

That’s the brainchild of Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, and it was expanded on in this analysis here from early January.

As was written, “US influence over Venezuela’s and possibly soon Iran’s and Nigeria’s energy exports and trade ties with China could be weaponized via threats of curtailment or cut-offs in parallel with pressure upon its Gulf allies to do the same in pursuit of this goal”, which is to coerce China into indefinite junior partnership status vis-à-vis the US through a lopsided trade deal.

Most observers missed it, but the new National Security Strategy calls for ultimately “rebalance[ing] China’s economy toward household consumption”. This is a euphemism for radically re-engineering the global economy through the previously described means, namely curtailing China’s access to the markets and resources responsible for its superpower rise, so that it no longer remains “the world’s factory” and thus ends its era of being the US’ only systemic rival. US-led unipolarity would then be restored.

Circling back to Iran, “[it] represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 MMbpd of oil [that China] imported by sea” last year per Kpler, hence why the US wants to control, curtail, or outright cut off this flow. ‘Plan A’ was to achieve this through diplomatic means for replicating the Venezuelan model that entered into effect after Maduro’s capture. Iran flirted with this but didn’t commit since it would entail the country’s strategic surrender, ergo why Trump authorized military action for achieving this instead.

In pursuit of this, Trump promised the IRGC in his video announcing his country’s military campaign against Iran that they’d have immunity if they laid down their arms. This reinforces the abovementioned claim that the US wants to replicate the Venezuelan model since it strongly suggests that he envisages newly US-aligned IRGC running Iran in the political interim before new elections just like the newly US-aligned Venezuelan security services run their own country during their own current political interim.

Such a scenario would avert Iran’s possible “Balkanization”, thus preserving the state so that it can then resume its prior role as one of the US’ top regional allies, which might then aid the Azeri-Turkish Axis’ efforts to project Western influence along Russia’s entire southern periphery. In that event, the US would simultaneously obtain unparalleled resource leverage over China via proxy control of Iran’s oil and gas industries while tightening its encirclement of Russia, which would deal a powerful blow to multipolarity.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 23:40

DOJ Charges 30 More People For Minnesota Church Invasion

DOJ Charges 30 More People For Minnesota Church Invasion

Via Headline USA,

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced charges Friday against 30 more people who are accused of civil rights violations in a January protest inside a Minnesota church where a pastor works for Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Bondi said on social media that 25 people were in custody and more arrests would follow.

The new indictment comes a month after independent journalists Don Lemon and Georgia Fort and prominent local activist Nekima Levy Armstrong were charged for their alleged roles in the protest at Cities Church in St. Paul, Minnesota.

“YOU CANNOT ATTACK A HOUSE OF WORSHIP. If you do so, you cannot hide from us — we will find you, arrest you, and prosecute you,” Bondi wrote in the post.

“This Department of Justice STANDS for Christians and all Americans of faith.”

In total, 39 people now face charges of conspiracy against religious freedom and interfering with the right of religious freedom.

The new defendants will have an initial court appearance and a magistrate judge will set conditions for their likely release. Lemon and Fort said they were at the church as journalists covering news. Levy Armstrong was the subject of a doctored photo posted by the White House showing her crying during her arrest. The three have pleaded not guilty.

Protesters descended on Cities Church on Jan. 18 after learning that one of the church’s pastors also serves as an ICE official. The protest drew swift condemnation from Trump administration officials and conservative leaders for disrupting a Sunday service.

The indictment says the “agitators” entered the church in a “coordinated takeover-style attack” and engaged in acts of intimidation and obstruction.

“Young children were left to wonder, as one child put it, if their parents were going to die,” the indictment says.

A lawyer for the church praised the Justice Department for charging more people.

“The First Amendment does not give anyone — regardless of profession, prominence, or politics — license to storm a church and intimidate, threaten, and terrorize families and children worshipping inside,” Doug Wardlow said in a statement.

The revised indictment adds new allegations when compared to the original filed in January.

It says two people “conducted reconnaissance” outside the church a day before the protest and recorded their visit on video, with one saying, “My thoughts are to be able to close up this whole alleyway right here.”

The court filing quotes one protester as chanting in the church, “This ain’t God’s house. This is the house of the devil.”

Separately, a woman who was at the church service has filed a lawsuit against some people who were charged, alleging emotional trauma and an inability to exercise her religion that day.

The protest came at a tense time in Minnesota, where the Trump administration sent thousands of federal officers for Operation Metro Surge after a series of public fraud cases where the majority of defendants had Somali roots. Officers frequently deployed tear gas for crowd control in neighborhood clashes with residents, often detaining them along with immigrants.

On Jan. 7, a federal officer fatally shot Renee Good, 37, in Minneapolis. In another fatal shooting a week after the church protest, a federal officer killed 37-year-old nurse Alex Pretti.

Nationwide demonstrations erupted in response, followed by a change in Operation Metro Surge’s leadership and the eventual wind-down of the immigration enforcement operation. Roughly 400 ICE officers and Homeland Security agents were expected to remain in Minneapolis by early March, down from roughly 3,000 at the peak, according to a court filing.

Since then, the Twin Cities have grappled with the impact to communities and the local economy. The city of Minneapolis said it suffered an impact of $203.1 million due to the operation, with tens of thousands of residents in need of urgent relief assistance.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 16:20

Joe Biden Makes Insane Claim That He Reduced Illegal Immigration

Joe Biden Makes Insane Claim That He Reduced Illegal Immigration

It's time for a fact check.  Former President Joe Biden is back after a year largely absent from the public eye, and he's just as incoherent as ever.  Biden left the White House in disgrace after a dismal first term when his own party supplanted him as the primary candidate for the 2024 elections against Donald Trump. 

His cognitive decline became obvious after his debate performance and questions remain if he was actually aware of the majority of his own executive orders and pardons, or if these were signed illegally by one of his staff with an autopen.  Furthermore, he left the nation is a state of complete chaos, but in a recent speech at a South Carolina Democratic Party event in Columbia, he claims he actually did a bang-up job. 

Biden took to the podium, slurring and stuttering, but did manage to rewrite history when he argued that:

"Despite the fact that Covid drove migration to record levels all around the world, the day I left office, border crossings in the United States were lower than the day that I entered the office I inherited from Trump. That’s just a fact.”

Biden also asserted that he left Trump with the "strongest economy in the world" when he exited office.  Truly, a mind boggling version of events. 

It should be noted that it's highly unlikely that Joe wrote these statements himself or that he is fully aware of what he is saying (like most of his presidency).  However, if this is the DNC's fantastical historical revision then it needs to be addressed.

As soon as Joe Biden was "elected" in November of 2020, illegal immigration began to surge.  With Trump on the way out the signal had been sent to begin flooding the southern border.  Efforts among globalist NGOs and the UN to fund and equip migrant caravans started well in advance of the election.  Once in office, the Biden Administration oversaw the worst immigrant invasion in US history.

Apprehensions, catch and release, amnesty claims and unchecked crossings skyrocketed. 

Biden certainly did not leave office with less illegal immigration than when he entered.  His claim that crossings were in decline at the end of his term is technically true, but this was not because of any policy his administration enforced.  It was, in fact, the state of Texas and their "Operation Lone Star" designed to lock down their vast border. This project resulted in a 74% decline in crossings in 2024.

Measures included cargo containers and razor wire as deterrents to illegal migrants, as well as increased border patrols.  The Democrats consistently interfered in these efforts, using a temporary Supreme Court ruling to justify tearing down razor wire and actively allow migrants to pass in direct violation of the constitutional mandate to protect US states from foreign invasion.  

The argument that the pandemic triggered the border surge is nonsensical.  Covid restrictions under Trump that ended asylum claims (Title 42) initially slowed the already low crossing numbers to a crawl.  The explosion in crossings occurred after Biden's election.   

Almost immediately upon Biden's exit and Trump's return, a handful of policy changes resulted in a 95% drop in illegal border crossing.  Not only that, but migrant camps in Mexican towns just across the southern border disappeared.  Meaning, all the Democrat claims that these migrants were "fleeing poverty, war and persecution" were completely fabricated.  If that had been true, then the migrants would have stayed at the border because they would have had nowhere else to go.

The shut down of the Democrat's CBP One mobile application (which streamlined asylum claims) was the final nail in the coffin for their immigration agenda.  Illegal crossings are now at lows not seen since 1970, and a new border wall was not even necessary. 

Sadly, the US is still dealing with the aftermath of Democrat control and the migrant invasion. An estimated 10 million illegals entered the country on Biden's watch, adding to already high numbers of illegals over the course of the past 20 years.  Democrats continue to misrepresent the history of these events, just as they continue to obstruct any attempts to deport the foreigners they allowed in. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 15:45

The Trump Administration Ditches Another Rogue DOJ Official

The Trump Administration Ditches Another Rogue DOJ Official

Authored by Tudor Dixon via American Greatness,

The second Trump administration is very different from the first. As 45th president, Donald Trump was saddled with disloyal officials who constantly undermined his agenda. The Ukraine impeachment scandal, among other events, was the result of this internal subversion.

But the second term sets a new standard for loyalty.

The administration will no longer tolerate rogue officials making their own policy.

This was made clear last week when the administration pushed out Gail Slater, the Justice Department’s antitrust chief.

Slater made a name for herself by going against administration policy and insisting on her personal priorities. While some misguided conservatives praised Slater as a “MAGA patriot,” her record reveals a very different streak. She was weak on China, weak on defending free speech, and weak on combating woke corporations.

Her departure signals that the second Trump administration is serious about ensuring officials are committed to the president’s agenda.

Slater ran afoul of the administration in her incorrigible opposition to the HPE-Juniper merger. The merger was supported by national security experts in the administration as necessary to counter the growing menace of Chinese tech dominance. The merger would allow American companies to coalesce resources to take on Huawei on the world stage. 

One official told Axios last year that blocking the deal would have “hindered American companies and empowered” Chinese entities. But Slater was resolutely opposed to it, in spite of the national security claims raised. The administration overruled her objections and approved the deal anyway. “Competition is global, and a combined HPE-Juniper is a stronger bulwark against that, against Huawei,” a government source told Fortune on why the administration approved the merger. “It will be the only U.S.-based company that provides the entire technology stack that Huawei does.”

It should be noted that one of Slater’s deputies who oversaw this matter was a Chinese sympathizer. Roger Alford was one of Slater’s key allies in the DOJ’s Antitrust Division before he was forced out last year. He boasts a record of praising China since the early 2010s and once even criticized Trump to a Chinese audience over his desire to reform the trade imbalance between the two countries.

Slater has a dubious record on free speech. In 2020, she signed on as a member of a project dedicated to formulating a framework for “moderating speech online.” The report, in which her name appears as an endorsee, praised social media companies for suppressing “misinformation” about COVID-19 and “hate speech.” The study also urged governments to take a proactive stance on “moderating” online content to ensure that liberal standards are enforced.

While Slater and her allies like to proclaim her as a bold populist standing up against corporate power, she approved one of the more concerning business moves in recent history. Disney, which stands as one of the wokest companies in the country, was able to add important NFL media assets to its empire. The deal raised eyebrows for giving the NFL partial ownership of ESPN, which is supposed to be an independent body covering the league, as well as for allowing Disney to grow even larger in the market. Experts warned the deal could result in price hikes for consumers and violate the spirit of antitrust laws. But Slater seemed unmoved by these arguments and approved the deal before departing from the DOJ.

It’s unclear how it serves the nation to defend the interests of Huawei and Disney, but Slater made a point to do so in her role at the DOJ.

If we want to make America great again, Trump needs reliable team players to enact his agenda. Slater did not fit the bill. She had her own agenda that did not fit with the MAGA one. That’s why she’s out of office.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 15:10

Oil Soars Over 10% In OTC Trading, Whether That Sticks Depends On How Long The War Lasts

Oil Soars Over 10% In OTC Trading, Whether That Sticks Depends On How Long The War Lasts

With war in the middle east raging, and the world's most important oil transit choke point - the Straits of Hormuz which accounts for 20% of daily global oil transit - "effectively" halted after at least three ships were attacked in the vicinity of the waterway - even as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera TV his country has no intention to close the Strait of Hormuz and has kept it open so far, markets have just one question: where does oil open when futures resume trading in a few hours. 

Well, we can tell you: according to the IG Weekend Market, an OTC market that reflects prices across over the counter exchanges, oil is set to open more than 10% higher, with spot WTI trading around $75 and Brent set to rise over $80.

Source: IG

That's not the question: the question is where does oil trade in a week, a month, a year, and - tied to that - what happens to the oil price curve.

The price spike comes despite OPEC+’s announced modest supply hike. But for such gains will sustain, or extend, investors will need to decide that the conflict is going to drag on. Indeed, this new wave of war is bigger, broader and messier than last June’s fighting. The gap between attacks and retaliation has narrowed: In previous waves it took days, but now it’s hours.

As Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds reminds us, during the 2003 invasion of Iraq by US-led forces, crude actually tumbled at the start of hostilities, on speculation the US would achieve a rapid victory. It ended up rebounding from an April trough to enter a long uptrend as it became clearer that there would be no straightforward resolution. 

The stakes are higher for oil this time. Iran’s output accounts for more than Iraq’s did in 2003, and Iraq had much less capacity to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said it doesn’t plan to close the key shipping channel, but there have already been signs that the conflict is halting tanker traffic.

“Tankers are starting to build by the Strait of Hormuz, but nothing seems to be going through at the moment – tankers are definitely spooked,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at energy consulting firm Kpler.

That means any lack of clarity on the endgame increases the potential for sustained advances in crude over the coming weeks. Any signs of a prolonged and drawn-out struggle boost the likelihood of crude reaching $80 a barrel and beyond, with Bloomberg Economics outlining a scenario that sees oil spiking above $100 in an extreme disruption scenario.

Sure enough, Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to over $100 per barrel, said veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft from RBC. Analysts from Barclays also said prices could rise to $100.

Other analysts see a more modest jump depending on how the conflict develops. Prices should rise by at least $3 to $5 per barrel when trading starts, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. 

The worst-case scenario is an attack by Iran on Saudi oil infrastrucure followed by a complete closure of the Strait, Lipow said Sunday. Oil prices would jump by $10 to $20 in this scenario, the analyst said, which he put at a 33% likelihood. 

And so, while the world waits to see next steps, it's buying oil and asking questions later. The attacks already are much wider in scope than last June. Iran’s response already has gone beyond the retaliation it offered in the opening stages of June’s war.

For its part, Bloomberg's economists thing Iran’s response will continue to escalate. While it can’t match the US’ military superiority, Iran can impose significant costs and seek to bog the US down in the region. Iran’s targets already include US bases in the region and Israel. Tehran could expand to energy infrastructure and regional shipping routes, either directly or through its partners in the region. That includes the Houthis in Yemen, who’ve said they’ll resume their disruption of shipping in regional waters. The possible outcomes are laid out in the chart below.

Source: Bloomberg

The price of oil will ultimately be determined by where the war finds its equilibrium point. 

In a possible indication that the oil price spike will be brief, Trump said Sunday that Iran wants to talk and he has agreed to do so, leaving open the possibility that there might be a path to de-escalation that avoids a big, prolonged disruption.

“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,” Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday. The president told CNBC that U.S. military operations in Iran are “ahead of schedule.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 14:31

Robert De Niro Could Face 5 Years In Prison Over Trump "Get Rid Of Him" Threats

Robert De Niro Could Face 5 Years In Prison Over Trump "Get Rid Of Him" Threats

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Bill O’Reilly has called for the Secret Service to haul in Robert De Niro for an “intensive interrogation” following the actor’s repeated threats against President Trump, warning that De Niro could face up to five years behind bars if convicted under federal law.

The demand comes amid growing scrutiny of De Niro’s unhinged anti-Trump rants, which have exposed the depths of Trump Derangement Syndrome among leftists desperate to undermine America First leadership.

O’Reilly zeroed in on De Niro’s recent MSNBC interview where the actor repeatedly declared “we got to get rid of him” in reference to Trump.

“Now, he said the words, ‘we got to get rid of him’ three times,” O’Reilly stated.

He slammed MSNBC host Nicolle Wallace for failing to challenge De Niro on the spot.

“Any interviewer other than Nicole Wallace would have said, ‘what do you mean by that? He’s elected. 77 million people voted for him,’” O’Reilly noted.

“What’s ‘we got to get rid of him?’ Are you talking about impeachment? What are you talking about?” he added.

O’Reilly then put himself in the shoes of the Secret Service director, emphasizing the gravity of such statements given the recent assassination attempts on Trump.

“So, I’m watching this and I’m the head of the Secret Service,” O’Reilly said.

“USC, US code 871, it is a crime to threaten not only the president of the United States but the vice president and everybody else in succession,” he added.

“And with Donald Trump and the assassination attempts, this goes WAY up,” the host stressed.

“Okay, so I’m the Secret Service director and I’m seeing this three times, ‘we got to get rid of him’ — I got agents pulling De Niro in for a Q&A and he better have a lawyer,” O’Reilly asserted.

He warned that De Niro’s responses during questioning could lead to charges, noting “Now, you could charge him based upon his answers to the interrogation.”

“If he takes the fifth, a refused answer on the grounds, right? You could charge him. And if he were convicted, he’d get 5 years in prison under this code,” O’Reilly urged.

As we previously reported, De Niro broke down in tears during that same MSNBC appearance, sobbing over Trump’s supposed “division” while claiming the President is “attempting to destroy this country.”

In the interview, De Niro spluttered, “You have to lift people up. You can’t divide people… this thing (Trump) they’re destroying, attempting to destroy this country and maybe not even understanding why. It’s up to us to protect the country.”

He also ranted about Trump refusing to leave the White House, stating, “We see it we see it we see it all the time, he will not want to leave.”

De Niro has previously labeled Trump advisor Stephen Miller a “Nazi,” adding, “He’s a Nazi. Yes, he is, and he’s Jewish and he should be ashamed of himself.”

“Everything, the point is we have to keep fighting and pushing until he is out, period. There’s no other way. He’s not going to want to leave the White House,” De Niro has insisted.

O’Reilly’s analysis highlights how Hollywood’s unchecked hatred is now crossing into potential legal territory, especially as Trump’s policies expose the failures of leftist agendas.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 14:00

CNN Forced To Admit Dems Are Tanking On Immigration Despite Anti-ICE Propaganda

CNN Forced To Admit Dems Are Tanking On Immigration Despite Anti-ICE Propaganda

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Fresh analysis lays bare the Democrats’ crumbling position on immigration, with voters trusting Republicans more than ever to handle border security—even as radicals ramp up their attacks on ICE and deportations.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten highlighted the stark shift during a recent segment, noting that despite the barrage of anti-ICE rhetoric, Democrats are faring worse now than during Trump’s first term.

“Despite EVERYTHING that’s been going on, Democrats in a WORSE position than Trump’s 1st term!” Enten said.

He pointed to polling data showing voters believe “They think Democrats will do a WORSE JOB on immigration than Republicans.”

On border security specifically, Enten added: “Border security? HELLO! 2018, Republicans up 13. The advantage is a little LARGER NOW, up 15 points!”

Dismissing any notion that Democrats could capitalize on the issue, he concluded: “The idea Democrats can take the ball and run away on it? Polling says NO, NO, NO.”

This comes amid a wider hardening of public attitudes toward immigration enforcement. Republicans now hold a five-point lead on who Americans trust more on immigration—a complete reversal from Democrats’ six-point edge in 2018.

The propaganda stemming from places like Minnesota against ICE has clearly failed, as Enten’s breakdown confirms.

These developments build on the groundswell of support for deportations. As detailed in our earlier report on overwhelming American demand for deporting illegals and full ICE cooperation, polls from outlets like Cygnal and Harvard Harris showed 73% agreeing illegal entry is a crime, 61% backing deportations, and 67% insisting on local officials working with federal authorities.

Multiple surveys reinforced this, with 55% to 64% favoring mass deportations across sources like the New York Times, Marquette, CBS News, and ABC News. Enten himself previously noted this “uniformity across four pollsters” as a “majority view,” with 63% supporting deporting recent arrivals and 87% for those with criminal records.

The leftist frenzy only amplifies this backlash. Incidents like this Minnesota woman stalking and abusing ICE agents tracking a child rapist murderer illegal, showcase the radicals’ dangerous obstruction. 

Her chilling admission that she “doesn’t care” about victims underscores the extremism driving voters away.

From high school assaults on pro-ICE students to AOC’s “teach-ins” on interfering with operations, these tactics are fueling everyday Americans to rally behind Trump’s crackdown.

DHS reports spikes in threats and assaults on agents, yet the public tide turns harder against open borders. With 55% now wanting decreased immigration levels—the highest since post-9/11—globalist policies are being rejected outright.

As Enten’s latest numbers prove, the Radical Left’s sabotage is collapsing under its own weight. Trump’s push to secure borders and empower ICE isn’t just popular; it’s the mandate restoring sovereignty and safety to American streets.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 12:50

Convicted Child Sex Offender To Run For Office In California

Convicted Child Sex Offender To Run For Office In California

You can already hear some liberals and left-leaning libertarians now:  "He paid for his crime, right?  So what's the problem? What about the politicians mentioned in the Epstein files...?"

But "whataboutism" is not a valid argument for rationalizing societal decay.  And if America isn't capable of applying the most basic standards at the lowest levels of government, then America is lost.

Rene Campos, a registered sex offender, is seeking elected office in California - launching a campaign for Fresno City Council amid fierce backlash and renewed questions about whether someone with his record should hold public office.

Campos was arrested in 2018 following a cyber tip to the Central California Internet Crimes Against Children Task Force.  He was found in possession of child sex abuse material, according to court records. In 2021 he entered a no-contest plea to a single misdemeanor charge of possessing and controlling child pornography/child sex abuse material (likely under California Penal Code § 311.11).  He served only one month in prison and a two year probation period.

Campos describes himself as a gay man who is running for office on the platform of "reduced crime and rehabilitation."

  

Possession of child pornography is typically treated as a felony, even in a woke haven like California.  How the Fresno candidate was able to make a deal for a misdemeanor charge and spend only one month in prison is a mystery, but this does help to confirm ongoing suspicions that California's legal system is falling into steep decline. 

California is notoriously soft on child sex abusers.  Recently, a Sacramento parole board released Daniel Allen Funston, who was convicted in 1999 of sixteen counts of kidnapping and child molestation after a horrific crime spree in Sacramento County, during which he kidnapped, raped, and beat eight children ages 3 to 7. 

Funston was originally sentenced to three consecutive life terms plus 20 years, but was set free at age 64 due to a California elderly inmate program (maybe he'll run for office, too).  

Data from 2022 shows that the Golden State released over 7000 child sex offenders after less than one year of incarceration.  Interestingly, "digital blocks" were added to the Megan’s Law website that prevent more recent analysis. 

State Senator and LGBT activist Scott Weiner has supported multiple pieces of legislation that help to reduce punishments for sex offenders.  He authored a bill in 2017, signed into law, which created a three-tier sex offender registry system in California. It allows some "lower-risk" offenders (including those convicted of misdemeanor possession of child pornography) to petition for removal from the registry after 10-20 years (Tier 1 or 2), rather than lifetime registration. 

Perhaps the most disturbing factor is that in California a candidate like Campos actually has a good chance of winning.  He is a member of the LGBT community, a minority, and he appeals to the progressive desire to prove that laws are "artificial constructs" and that criminal convictions should not "define a person."  In other words, Campos could win the election simply because he gives leftists an opportunity to prove that even the worst criminals are merely downtrodden victims who were never given a chance to succeed.   

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 12:15

Germany's Pension Time Bomb: $2+ Billion In CRE Losses Expose Cracks In The Fiat Era

Germany's Pension Time Bomb: $2+ Billion In CRE Losses Expose Cracks In The Fiat Era

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe,

A shock for the insured members of the Versorgungswerk Zahnärzte Berlin-Brandenburg (VZB). According to a report this week by Bloomberg, losses at the private pension fund total €1.1 billion. Roughly 50 percent of its invested capital has effectively been wiped out—channeled into private loans to non-listed companies, including rPlanet Earth in California, a shrimp farm in northern Germany, and, repeatedly featured on the investment menus of German pension funds, U.S. commercial real estate.

The auditors, advisors, and executives involved now face what may become a legal marathon. Much suggests that VZB ventured well beyond the traditional risk framework that would normally be considered prudent for a professional pension institution.

A similar fate befell the Bayerische Versorgungskammer (BVK). Last year it recorded accounting losses of up to €853 million. Once again, U.S. commercial real estate exposures were at the center of the turbulence, including properties such as the Transamerica Building in San Francisco—an internationally recognized problem asset.

Unlike VZB, however, BVK has substantial financial reserves. The assets it manages still total around €170 billion. On this robust capital base, it secures retirement benefits for physicians, lawyers, and numerous other professional groups.

The Bloomberg report further lists additional pension schemes displaying a similar pattern: recurring write-downs in the U.S. commercial real estate segment. Among the affected institutions are the Kirchliche Zusatzversorgungskasse des Verbandes der Diözesen Deutschlands (KZVK), the BASF Pensionskasse, the Telekom Pensionskasse, and the Apotheker- und Zahnärztefonds Schleswig-Holstein.

Nationwide, at least 18 pension institutions have taken unscheduled write-downs totaling more than €2 billion on commercial real estate investments since 2020. The system is under pressure—but it is not yet tottering. German pension funds collectively manage around €300 billion in assets. Nevertheless, pressure on asset managers to recalibrate risk profiles to a changed interest-rate and market environment is likely to intensify in the coming years. But where can reliable returns still be found when the classic portfolio mix of safe sovereign bonds—upon which entire pension systems were built over decades—appears to belong to the past?

Few will be able to avoid adding equity risk going forward. Allocations to precious metals—and possibly to Bitcoin, the so-called digital gold—as assets without traditional third-party risk appear to be a logical option. Equity stakes in the energy sector are also likely to gain significantly in attractiveness. In particular, the economic superpowers U.S. and China are on the verge of a massive AI and nuclear power boom, developments that are likely to be reflected in capital markets.

Yet many portfolio managers have remained anchored to the old worldview: sovereign bonds and commercial real estate—precisely those segments that, against the backdrop of high public debt and negative demographic trends, are increasingly losing structural stability and thus implying growing downside risk—remain dominant building blocks of portfolio strategy.

This traditional portfolio approach promised stable income and attractive yields. What was overlooked, however, is that structural shifts have fundamentally altered the underlying data: the rise of remote work, sweeping restructuring within the American economy, and the accelerating deployment of artificial intelligence have significantly reduced demand for conventional office space. What was intended as yield-enhancing diversification has, in many cases, turned into concentrated risk—with substantial consequences for the stability of the affected pension institutions.

Mounting pressure under expansionary monetary policy led to a gradual shift away from the liquid, stable-yielding, long-term sovereign bonds that had proven themselves over decades, toward higher-yielding but significantly more illiquid asset classes. Many asset managers tilted portfolios toward private debt, real assets, and promissory note loans backed by real estate covenants—extending even into high-risk mezzanine financing for non-listed, speculative projects.

The sharp interest-rate hikes that followed years of monetary expansion in 2022 hit the real estate sector with full force. Insolvencies increased, default risks slipped beyond the effective control of auditors, while asset managers responded to monetary volatility and swelling public debt by assuming ever greater risks.

The combination of prolonged ultra-low rates followed by abrupt tightening has exposed the weaknesses of many investment strategies.

The deep cracks now visible in the financial architecture of German pension funds are systemic. Years of low-rate policy aimed at financing highly deficit-ridden state budgets, along with the economic damage inflicted by lockdowns during the Covid years, have dramatically increased pressure on both investors and pension portfolio managers. In essence, we have been living under this policy regime since the great debt crisis a decade and a half ago.

Pension liabilities require a minimum return on invested capital. The crisis in bond markets is pushing investor strategies further along the risk curve into asset classes that traditionally did not appear on the radar of these institutions’ portfolio managers. Put differently: high volatility and the selloff at the long end of top-rated sovereign bonds reflect a fundamental reassessment of inflation and debt risks currently underway in government bond markets. The fiat credit-money system is entering a particularly volatile phase.

How private pension funds and insurance systems will ultimately be financed and backstopped remains unclear. Will state guarantee funds step in if losses escalate into systemic risk and entire institutions begin to wobble?

Experience from the rescue practices during the great financial crisis suggests that governments may once again act in line with the protective umbrella strategy associated with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. That would mean placing large bond issues on the market, underwritten by the European Central Bank, to secure payment flows and obligations of affected institutions. Market distortion follows market distortion—an intervention spiral designed to stabilize the financial structure in the short term, yet failing to resolve underlying problems and sending fatal signals for further misallocation of capital.

For individual investors, it is crucial to recognize that many central banks have gradually reduced their bond holdings after years of large-scale asset purchases.

The fact that major central banks—such as China’s—are increasingly backing their balance sheets with structurally expanded gold reserves is a clear warning signal.

How stable is our banking system, really? How large are the third-party risks hidden in balance sheets? And how liquid will bond markets remain in the coming years if even formerly fiscally reliable states like Germany issue hundreds of billions of euros in new debt?

The fact that numerous states worldwide have begun expanding strategic energy and commodity reserves is another strong signal. It suggests that future currency systems may, sooner than expected, once again become more tightly linked to real scarcities—whether precious metals, energy, or broad commodity baskets.

The era of unbacked fiat credit money, at least in its current form, is gradually drawing to a close. German pension funds must incorporate this reality into their calculations—sooner rather than later.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 10:30

Amazon Warns Of "Degraded" AWS Service In UAE After "Power Issues" Amid Middle East Conflict

Amazon Warns Of "Degraded" AWS Service In UAE After "Power Issues" Amid Middle East Conflict

Iran's retaliatory attack ramped up on Sunday after the U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday morning. Follow-on strikes were reported in Israel, across multiple Gulf states, and maritime incidents affected commercial shipping lanes in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

One notable and unexpected point of disruption has emerged in the Middle East critical infrastructure on Sunday morning, with Amazon reporting that its Middle East (UAE) data center region has experienced a power issue that degraded internet connectivity and impaired cloud service availability.

AWS reported that its ME-CENTRAL-1 Region (mec1-az2), which refers to a specific cluster of AWS data-center infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, is experiencing operational issues due to a "localized power issue." AWS stated that the severity of the incident is "degraded."

"Other AWS Services are also experiencing error rates and latencies for some workflows. We have weighed away traffic for most services at this time. We recommend customers utilize one of the other Availability Zones in the ME-CENTRAL-1 Region at this time, as existing instances in other AZ's remain unaffected by this issue," AWS wrote on its status page, adding, "We are actively working to restore power and connectivity, at which time we will begin to work to recover affected resources. As of this time, we expect recovery is multiple hours away."

UAE Data Center Map 

Data Cables Map 

The AWS status report made no mention of whether the power disruptions were due to Iranian missile or drone strikes on UAE critical infrastructure, such as transmission lines or power generation facilities.

Earlier, the UAE Ministry of Defense announced that the "country was subjected today to a blatant attack by Iranian ballistic missiles, which was dealt with by the UAE air defenses with high efficiency, and a number of missiles were successfully intercepted."

Beyond the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Israel have been subjected to Iranian retaliatory attacks - this is mostly because US military installations are in these countries.

Qatar's Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying: "The State of Qatar expresses its strong condemnation of the targeting of Qatari territory with Iranian ballistic missiles."

The UAE has confirmed a temporary closure of its airspace as an "exceptional precautionary measure."

One key question is whether the conflict is now spilling beyond military targets and into civilian critical infrastructure. If that line has already been crossed, U.S. hyperscalers expanding in the UAE, including Microsoft, whose commitment totals about $15.2 billion and includes significant AI and cloud datacenter spending, may need to be reassessed given the fiery geopolitical climate.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 10:15

Tens Of Thousands Stranded Amid Mass Airspace Closures At Mideast Hubs: "It's Chaos Here"

Tens Of Thousands Stranded Amid Mass Airspace Closures At Mideast Hubs: "It's Chaos Here"

The US State Department is warning all American citizens to exercises extreme caution when traveling abroad amid the ongoing US-Israeli military operation against Iran, which has included two days of heavy bombing aimed at regime change - and which has already resulted in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and some 40 top military leaders.

"Following the launch of U.S. combat operations in Iran, Americans worldwide and especially in the Middle East should follow the guidance in the latest security alerts issued by the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate," a fresh weekend US notification says. "They may experience travel disruptions due to periodic airspace closures. The Department of State advises Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution."

Explosions at Dubai International Airport following Iranian strike.

Not only is Israel's airspace closed, as Iranian retaliatory ballistic missiles rain down, but much of the Gulf nations have restrictions and airspace closures in place. This after at least two regional airports have been struck.

"One person has been killed and 11 injured at airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, as Iran launched attacks across the Middle East in response to a massive and ongoing attack against it by the US and Israel," BBC reports.

Abu Dhabi authorities said a drone targeting Zayed International Airport (AUH) was intercepted, resulting in "falling debris" which killed one person and injuring seven.

Dubai International Airport, one of the busiest hubs in the world, has also been hit and suffered damage. So it's not just the skies over the region which are dangerous at this moment, but in some cases the very airport terminals, especially if located just across the Persian Gulf from Iran, amid its broader retaliation targeting US bases and those Arab states hosting them. The Iranians appear to be going straight after Gulf civic infrastructure, given the same is being done to Tehran.

"More than 3,400 flights were canceled Sunday across seven airports in the Mideast, according to flight tracker Flightradar24," AP notes. "Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar’s capital, Doha, and Manama in Bahrain were among those closed."

Thousands are stranded at regional airports, and many are likely seeking refuge and shelter elsewhere in these cities, as major civic infrastructure from Bahrain to UAE to Kuwait could come under potential attack. "It's chaos here" - some stranded British travelers have said:

Thousands of Britons have been left stranded in the Middle East after global airlines grounded hundreds of flights due to US and Israeli strikes against Iran.

Iran and Iraq’s airspaces were closed due to the escalating military action, which has seen blasts reported in multiple countries across the region, and Dubai International Airport, the biggest global aviation hub, suspended all flights on Saturday.

Mike Boreham, who had been on holiday in Dubai with his wife, was due to get the 1.10pm British Airways flight back to Heathrow when the captain told the passengers the airspace had been closed.

And it goes the other way too. People from the Mideast and Mediterranean region who are trying to get back home often cannot at this point:

Tens of thousands of Israelis found themselves unable to return to Israel on Saturday after Israel and the US launched a major joint military strike on Iran.

As Iran responded by firing missiles and drones, Israel closed its airspace until at least Monday, the Transportation Ministry said, making travel through Ben Gurion Airport and other flight hubs impossible.

Rescue flights are being planned for when Israel reopens its airspace, with El Al announcing it was putting a wide plan in place and saying that its own ticket holders will automatically be assigned seats.

Meanwhile President Trump has called for full regime change in Iran, after the Iranians have already appointed an interim successor to the slain Ayatollah Khamenei. This means that US-Israeli military operations there could continue for days more, and possible weeks, or even longer. 

The Middle East's travel woes, and possibly by extension and domino effect - some European hubs - could soon grow much worse. Of course, this is the least of the region's problems as broader war breaks out.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 09:55

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