ICE Awards $16.7 Million No-Bid Contract For 6,000 Pairs Of Electric Shock Gloves

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has awarded a $16.7 million contract to purchase 6,000 pairs of gloves that can deliver electric shocks. Officers would use them to control resisting detainees and protesters, according to a federal notice published Thursday.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement at the Department of Homeland Security in Washington on Feb. 17, 2026. (Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times)

The no-bid deal went to Compliant Technologies LLC, a Kentucky firm that manufactures the devices, and covers the gloves plus support equipment and services over the next six months.

ICE moved forward with the purchase despite ongoing objections from civil rights advocates and Democratic senators. They said the agency already draws criticism for use of force with unclear oversight.

Hours before the notice appeared, a group of senators led by Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) wrote to ICE's acting director, urging the agency to abandon the plan. Fifteen colleagues from the Democratic caucus signed on.

"The blatant and tragic misuse of force in Los Angeles, Chicago, Minneapolis, Houston, Maine, and other locations around the country raises significant skepticism about the agency's professional capability to safely deploy a new tool that could be used to harm Americans without cause," the letter said.

The Department of Homeland Security, ICE's parent agency, defended the purchase Thursday.

"Sanctuary politicians attempting to ban our federal law enforcement from any safety equipment is despicable and a deliberate attempt to undermine and endanger our officers," the agency said in a statement.

The plan for the purchase surfaced earlier this month when ICE posted a notice about buying thousands of "conductive distraction and de-escalation devices" for officers and investigators.

Gloves Look Like Regular Gear Until Button Is Pressed

The gloves appear as ordinary patrol gloves until an officer presses a button, which activates electrical mode. The shock works only on bare skin, and aims to produce enough pain to make a resisting person comply. Some local jails and police departments already use similar equipment.

ICE's notice listed several scenarios for the devices, including high-tension environments during arrests, transport of combative detainees, and civil disturbances outside detention facilities.

"It will be used when a subject is actively or passively resisting and an officer needs to gain control quickly to prevent injuries to both parties," the document said.

Officials said the shocks would help maintain control over inmates, stop aggression or escape attempts, let officers handcuff people who hide their hands, and aid crowd control efforts. The aim is to avoid the deployment of greater force, including firearms. The notice mentioned approved policy, training, and accountability standards but no further details.

ICE initially intended to spend up to $20 million on the devices, known as CTG-5 G.L.O.V.E., or Generated Low Output Voltage Emitter, with delivery expected by March 31, 2027. The gloves were earmarked for Homeland Security Investigations and Enforcement and Removal Operations officers and agents.

Compliant Technologies said the gloves should not be deployed in the face of verbal defiance or belligerence, serve as punishment, or be used for torture. The company also warned against deploying them on children, the elderly, pregnant women, or people with disabilities.

The manual advised using them when a suspect becomes violent enough to endanger an officer or the public, and only to meet lawful objectives under agency policy. Officers need training and certification, with recertification every two years.

"Every decision is made with careful consideration and appropriately reviewed to ensure that any technology ICE utilizes is consistent with all applicable law enforcement policies and standards," an ICE spokesperson told The Epoch Times earlier this month via email. "Our officers are highly trained in de-escalation tactics and regularly receive ongoing use of force training."

* * * hot take from Tim Dillon

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 12:25

Trump Stuns By Outright Dismissing Notion Putin Preparing To Attack A NATO State

President Trump has added fuel to the fire of controversy and speculation over the question of why CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise and highly rare trip to Moscow on Tuesday.

Media accounts which seek to explain the nature of his meeting with top Kremlin intelligence officials, while apparently being snubbed by Putin in terms of a direct interaction, have shifted in days since the visit. The early 'consensus' was that he delivered a stern warning for Russia not to attack any NATO state. But President Trump has poured cold water on this explanation, appearing to dismiss it outright in his latest comments. 

"I've had good talks with him. He's not going to be attacking a NATO territory," Trump said of Putin on Thursday while talking to reporters in the Oval Office.

Trump didn't answer specifically when pressed on if the president directed Ratcliffe to deliver a warning to Putin to not attack NATO. "I don't want to comment on that but they're not going to attack," Trump said.

While many times over the course of the Ukraine war, European heads of state have claimed that Russia is expansionist and seeks to attack countries in Europe beyond Ukraine, this has not ever been a public allegation of Trump, who has tended to downplay it as a possibility. 

Trump did deny the reports centered on Ratcliffe in an interview with Axios Thursday, saying "Ratcliffe sees his Russian counterpart once every six months or once every year. They have a very good relationship. There was no message and there was nothing unusual."

And when asked over whether he's concerned that Putin might attack NATO or deeper inside Europe, Trump replied, "I am not concerned … at all. There is no problem." According to more:

The president called Ratcliffe's trip "standard business" and expressed puzzlement over the media accounts of it.

But the reality is that no CIA director has made such a trip in well over four years. The prior time was November 2021, when then-CIA Director William Burns traveled to Moscow to meet with senior Russian officials and issued a stark warning against invading Ukraine.

It was also highly unexpected in terms of timing, given the stalemated nature of the Ukraine conflict, and the fact that zero peace negotiations are happening. There has not even so much as been any efforts at achieving a short-term ceasefire, akin to last year's Christmas truce.

Trump in the Oval on Thursday declaring confidently that no, the Russians are not going to attack NATO:

REPORTER: Did Ratcliffe delivered a warning to Russia not to attack NATO territory during his trip?

US PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, I don't wanna comment on that, but they're not going to attack NATO. pic.twitter.com/TbAvq8NUJR

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) August 27, 2026

One theory on the motive for Ratcliffe's trip, which has gained traction among independent analysts, is that it was focused on the Iran war amid allegations from US officials that Russia has assisted Tehran with targeting information on US troop and base whereabouts in the Mideast region.

At times throughout Operation Epic Fury, Tehran appears to have even targeted CIA stations. The bulk of American military assets and bases in the Gulf countries have suffered severe damage earlier in the conflict, resulting in a Pentagon troop drawback to safer areas. This is indeed a big deal if it is the case that Russia or China (or both) have handed the Iranians intel to help push back American bases and forces.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 12:10

Judge Again Rules Texas Drag Performance Law Unconstitutional

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Tuesday again barred a Texas law that restricts public drag performances, ruling for a second time that the measure violates the U.S. Constitution's free-speech protections.

U.S. District Judge David Hittner in Houston declared Texas Senate Bill 12 an unconstitutional restriction on speech. He permanently enjoined Attorney General Ken Paxton from enforcing it.

"For those who find such activities as described in this case offensive, the solution is relatively simple ... just don't go," Hittner wrote in his opinion.

The ruling marks the second time Hittner has found the law in violation of the First Amendment. He granted a restraining order against the legislation in 2023. A Fifth Circuit panel later vacated the injunction in 2025 and remanded the case, allowing the law to take effect while the appeal moved through the courts.

Hittner reconsidered the First Amendment challenges under the Supreme Court's Moody framework - which provided criteria for determining whether performers' rights were violated - and the vagueness claims in the context of court precedent. He again found the statute overbroad and unconstitutionally vague.

The amended final judgment, entered Aug. 25, finds Senate Bill 12 violates the First Amendment as incorporated by the 14th Amendment, and immediately and permanently blocks the attorney general from enforcing it.

Senate Bill 12, signed by Gov. Greg Abbott in June 2023, targets "sexually oriented performances," imposes civil penalties on businesses hosting them when minors are present, authorizes local governments to regulate such shows, and creates Class A misdemeanor criminal penalties for performers of up to a year in jail and a $4,000 fine.

The law bans "the exhibition of sexual gesticulations using accessories or prosthetics that exaggerate male or female sexual characteristics" in public or in venues where people under 18 might see them. It defines a sexually oriented performance as a visual performance featuring a nude performer or one engaging in sexual conduct that appeals to the prurient interest in sex.

Hittner found that performers ranging from Dolly Parton and Elvis Presley to Miley Cyrus could have faced penalties if their acts were viewed as erotic. Accessories and prosthetics that exaggerate sexual characteristics, hip gyrations, or certain clothing and gestures risked triggering the law even in non-obscene contexts such as theater, dance, or impersonation acts, he said.

Paxton, a Republican running for the U.S. Senate, on Wednesday said he plans to appeal the decision.

"This is a profoundly flawed decision that endangers our children and is an affront to Texas values," he wrote in a post on X. "I will appeal this decision immediately and continue to fight to protect our kids."

Paxton's office defended the legislation as a measure to protect children, pledging to exhaust the court system in pursuit of implementing the law.

Opponents said the law was too broad and aimed at LGBT performers.

"Today's decision confirms that the Legislature's attempt to ban drag performances was unconstitutional from start to finish," Brian Klosterboer, senior staff attorney at the ACLU of Texas, which represented the plaintiffs, said in an Aug. 25 statement. "Drag has a rich history as a refuge of joy and liberation for countless Texans, and it's not going anywhere."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 11:55

US Job Growth Revised Lower By 79,000 In Annual Benchmark Estimate

In our preview of today's preliminary benchmark revision of US jobs - published by the BLS 'conveniently' just as Kevin Warsh started to speak - we said that according to Goldman calculations, for the first time in 3 years and just the second time since 2018, the BLS was going to revisedpayrolls modestly higher "based on the nine months of data released since the last benchmarked period, March 2025."

Specifically, Goldman's economists expected "a preliminary upward revision on the order of 50-450k which would translate to a 5-40k upward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026. A final revision of this magnitude would result in the average pace of payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026 being revised up from about 25k/month currently to 30-65k/month."

Alas, for one more year, it was not meant to be, and this morning the BLS announced that according to the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES), the 2026 benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000.  While just why of a positive revision, it was a far cry from last year's record 911K negative job revision. For context, annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have had absolute average of 0.2% of total nonfarm employment.

Additionally, the revision for total private employment was -178,000, which means that government jobs were revised higher by 99K.

The 178,000 negative revision for private payrolls in the year through March reflected weakness in retail trade, education and health services, manufacturing and business services. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities and construction. 

It is likely that the final final revision will actually tip into the positive. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2027 with the publication of the January 2027 Employment Situation news release. As we noted earlier, preliminary estimates for the benchmark revision tend to understate the final revision: the nextx chart shows that the preliminary estimate has been below the final revision in each of the last six years, by roughly 100k on average, which suggests that today's -79K print will end up being in the +20K ballpark. This reflects that the QCEW itself has been revised up in every quarter since 2019 with the exception of 2020 H1, potentially reflecting ongoing issues with initial submissions to the administrative records that inform the QCEW

Before today's revision, government payrolls data indicated employers added 211,000 jobs in the year through March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or an average of 17,600 per month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The preliminary benchmark revision suggests average job growth was likely closer to 11,000 a month.

Preliminary benchmark revisions have now lowered employment estimates in seven of the past eight years. Even so, the latest adjustment suggests that the labor market is roughly balanced - with employers slow to hire new workers but also slow to fire existing staff.

The BLS each year benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages that’s based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all US jobs. While the new information improves the accuracy of its data, the process has gained additional attention in recent years.

Last year’s preliminary adjustment slashed employment estimates by the most on record, reigniting White House criticism of the BLS. About one month prior to the 2025 preliminary benchmark release, President Donald Trump fired the agency’s leader after a separate monthly report showed weak job growth. The Senate confirmed Trump’s pick to lead the BLS - Brett Matsumoto - on Aug. 7. Matsumoto, a PhD economist and BLS veteran, now helms an agency responsible for publishing some of the most market-moving statistics in the world.

What is behind the chronic negative revisions? First, there is the chronically wrong birth-death model, discussed extensively here in recent years. Yet just 14% of last year’s very large revision can be attributed to miscalibration of the birth-death model; the bulk instead falls into the residual category which would capture the reporting error arising from a systematic undercount of unauthorized workers.

As we discussed first a few years ago when we correctly previewed the massive negative revisions to 2023 and 2024 data, since the QCEW is based on unemployment insurance records, it likely excludes most unauthorized workers, who contributed to employment growth in the periods covered by those benchmark revisions. In most cases unauthorized workers do not qualify for unemployment insurance, so employers might see little reason to pay unemployment insurance tax on their behalf and might even see it as a needless risk in the cases of any immigrants they are employing who do not yet have work permits.

As such, the Trump admin's aggressive purging of illegal aliens - and workers - has led to significant real-time overestimates of the labor market in the monthly series, which are then revised away every year once it becomes clear that there were far fewer illegal aliens in the workforce. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 11:40

"Dark" Tanker Fleet Shatters Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold As Gulf Oil Exports Top Two-Thirds Of Pre-War Level

Brent crude futures initially jumped overnight after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has no interest in reviving the memorandum of understanding (interim peace deal) reached with Iran in June. The war-risk premium in Brent has since faded in New York premarket trading amid mounting developments this week that major Gulf producers, including Kuwait and Qatar, are increasing tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Emerging diplomatic traction between Oman and Iran has also further reduced the perceived risk of a prolonged disruption.

Reinforcing this week's developments, new data from Daan Struyven, Goldman's co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of oil research, show that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to more than two-thirds of prewar levels.

Struyven wrote in a note late Thursday that Gulf-area exports of crude and petroleum products have rebounded sharply to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, up from a March low of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day.

He said crude flows remain 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below prewar levels, but the recovery has been strong enough to ease fears of a prolonged disruption at the world's most important maritime chokepoint.

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated at 8 million to 10 million barrels per day. Traders surveyed by Bloomberg place that range much lower, at between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day.

"Although our estimates focus on total Gulf flows, the upward revisions suggest Strait of Hormuz oil transits are likely close to US officials' 8-10mb/d estimates. The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Middle East conflict," Struyven told clients.

Related:

• Oil Dumps As Iran, Oman Push To Reopen Hormuz; Satellite Image Shows Gulf Producers Ramping Up

He noted, "Shipping markets now price in disruptions likely continuing well into 2027 (Exhibit 7). Still, potential additional dark flows and price-sensitive China net crude imports may moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer. We continue to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices in persistent disruption scenarios than for crude."

Readers by now understand that the energy crisis is not necessarily in crude oil but, in fact, in refined products, with the U.S. diesel crack spread trading at $93 per barrel Friday morning. The spread blew out last week, reaching a record above $100.

The takeaway from Goldman's Struyven is that, even though the critical waterway has not fully reopened, a growing fleet of dark tankers is transiting the strait and defying Iran's blockade. That raises the question we have asked in recent weeks: Is Iran's geopolitical leverage over the Strait of Hormuz eroding?

Overnight, Trump posted an image on Truth Social depicting the Strait of Hormuz as "New U.S. Territory."

In late March, we cited a note from Zoltan Pozsar's advisory firm, Ex Uno Plures, pointing out that Trump was "methodically building a portfolio of assets" to pressure China, including adding the Strait of Hormuz (read here).

The question is whether Trump will stop at Hormuz or embark on another crusade in the Gulf and take Iran's Kharg Island. This newly minted portfolio also includes Venezuela, where the U.S. is nearing a deal to secure long-term energy-producing assets in the country.

Professional subscribers can read the full GS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 11:25

US Sanctions 3 Groups Accused Of Supporting Far-Left Terrorism

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on three organizations it accuses of supporting far-left terrorism.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announces a new set of sanctions against Iran, describing them as "an economic D-Day," in the Cash Room at the Treasury Department in Washington, on Aug. 24, 2026. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control on Aug. 26 sanctioned Italy-based Autistici/Inventati, the UK-based Palestine Action, and the transnational organization Masar Badil under executive order 13224, the government's principal counterterrorism sanctions authority.

"Far-left extremists, their fronts, and their enablers should be on notice: We will bring the full weight of our economic tools to bear," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. "Political terrorism has no place in our society, and we will continue to cut the financial lifelines of these groups until they are eliminated."

Among the services the Treasury Department described Autistici/Inventati as providing to violent left-wing groups were website hosting, encrypted email, online chat, and video conferencing.

Autistici/Inventati restricts its services to people and organizations it has vetted who are aligned with its "anti-fascist," "anti-militarist," and anticapitalist ideology, according to the Treasury Department.

Austistici/Inventati was accused by the U.S. government of providing services to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, the UK, and the European Union.

The Treasury Department also sanctioned Palestine Action, accusing the organization of committing break-ins at defense facilities and British military installations, injuring UK law enforcement officers, and causing millions of dollars in damage to military equipment. The British government designated Palestine Action as a terrorist organization in July 2025.

The organization Masar Badil was sanctioned for allegedly operating on behalf of the Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity Network, which the United States and Canada sanctioned in 2024. The Treasury Department described Samidoun as a front for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization.

Autistici/Inventati denied the allegations in a statement posted on its blog, Cavallette. It described itself as a small, volunteer-run technology collective providing "digital self-defense" tools and communications services to activists, individuals, and organizations.

"We will not back down," the collective said, calling the allegations false and politically motivated. "Antifascism and anticapitalism are not terrorism. Protesting is not terrorism."

Huda Ammori, cofounder of Palestine Action, responded to the terrorist designation on X.

"As a Palestinian and Iraqi, the fact the country which destroyed both my homelands is calling me a terrorist, is beyond hypocritical," Ammori said in a post on X on Aug. 26.

He said President Donald Trump "is the antithesis to everything Palestine Action stands for."

Masar Badil also took to X to respond.

"Washington will not criminalize the struggle of our people nor will it strip them of their right to resistance and return," the organization posted on X on Aug. 27.

The U.S. sanctions block property and financial interests belonging to the designated parties that are in the United States or controlled by U.S. persons. They also generally prohibit Americans from conducting transactions involving the sanctioned organizations.

Foreign financial institutions may also face penalties for knowingly facilitating significant transactions on their behalf. The Treasury said sanctions may be lifted if designated parties successfully petition for removal or change the conduct that prompted the action.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 11:05

Conflict Hits 6 Months: Iran Says Diplomacy Can Return But "Pressure Doesn't Work"

In what will likely prove to be a very limited and ultimately unfruitful diplomatic overture, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas ​Araghchi has newly announced that Tehran views renewed talks with Washington as not impossible, and that dialogue can actually get on track - but so long as the US understands that pressure does not work.

In a Friday post on X, Araghchi ⁠acknowledged "creative discussions" ‌with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister ‌Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al -Thani, wherein the Iranian side expressed that US leadership must respect the Islamic Republic's sovereignty and rights.

Iranian state sources

"Putting diplomacy back on track isn't impossible. It hinges on U.S. understanding of one simple fact: pressure doesn't work. The U.S. should build trust, speak respectfully, acknowledge our rights, and uphold commitments," Araghchi stated.

The talks with the top Qatari delegation happened in Tehran, and according to a summary from Doha's side:

• Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said talks covered efforts to de-escalate regional tensions and a proposed interim framework establishing “a temporary joint shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz,” alongside a joint operation to clear mines from the strait.
• Al Thani stressed “the necessity of respecting the sovereignty of neighboring countries and freedom of navigation” and resolving disputes through dialogue.
• According to Qatar’s readout, Araghchi thanked Doha for its diplomatic efforts supporting dialogue and de-escalation.

And yet, President Trump has this week insisted that all mines are already clear from the strait, as a result of the work of the US Navy. It has remained unclear what precise data or confirmation he is relying on.

As for Qatar, it along with Pakistan helped broker the memorandum of understanding in June, which has since gone defunct and is also now expired.

President Trump had once again on Thursday claimed that Iran is "begging to make a deal" - something which is not evident in any public stance or statements out of Iran.

Instead, Iranian officials have continued by and large striking a defiant tone, with the Foreign Ministry on Friday blasting the "economic terrorism" of the Trump administration. 

"The US abuse of the dollar as a tool to intimidate other countries in order to force them to follow its interventionist policies, which violate international law, in relation to Iran, constitutes a violation of the national sovereignty and right to self-determination of all member states of the United Nations," the statement said. "US sanctions against Iran, due to both their nature and consequences, constitute a flagrant violation of the UN Charter." 

The NY Times on Friday underscores that Friday is precisely the six month mark of the Iran conflict, writing:

It was supposed to be quick.

Still, six months after the U.S. and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran, the conflict drags on. The Trump administration has replaced its military war with an economic one, but the result is likely to be no different, analysts said, with a lack of American clarity about goals, a decline in American credibility and a strategic defeat.

One thing remains constant, however. The ordinary people of Iran are bearing the brunt of the war, victims of both the United States and their own leaders.

Postmortem and blame game on another 'war of choice' in the Middle East begins...

Meanwhile, some analysts warn that Washington's Iran-related secondary sanctions could have the opposite of the intended effect, and ultimately hasten a global trend of de-dollarization. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 10:45

Americans' Confidence Dips In August As Chicago PMI Plunges Into Contraction

The MNI Chicago PMI for August was a disaster, printing below even the worst analyst's expectations.

Against expectations of a rise to 57.9, the headline print crashed from 57.6 to 47.1 (flashing recession signals)...

Prices paid accelerated while the overall business barometer plunged into contraction.

That is the biggest MoM drop since COVID...

However, in the face of that collapse in business confidence, UMich reported US consumer sentiment fell in August for the first time in three months on a worsening economic outlook, even as expectations for inflation in the year ahead eased.

The University of Michigan’s sentiment index decreased to 51.7 in August, according to data released Friday. The final reading was slightly improved from the preliminary reading and above expectations.

Sentiment declines in August were seen for all political groups and were particularly acute among Republicans. 

Year-ahead inflation expectations tumbled  to 4.0%.

The current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings.

Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.3% for the third consecutive month, remaining a bit higher than its 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.

Consumers continue to worry that “inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

“In addition to the pocketbook issues that have been central to consumers’ views of the economy, they are increasingly worried that prospects elsewhere in the economy could be weakening,” she added.

With ongoing policy uncertainty including the Iran conflict, consumers anticipate further increases in gasoline prices both in the short and long run.

Interestingly, stockholders remain more fearsome of inflation than non-stockholders...

So, while stocks are testing record highs, businesses are suffering recession-like symptoms, and the 'average joe' appears to be getting less confident (despite inflation fears fading).

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 10:32

Judge Rules Trump Admin Illegally Retaliated Against Anthropic Over AI Red Lines

Via Decrypt.co,

In brief

• Judge Rita Lin granted Anthropic summary judgment on its First Amendment, due process and Administrative Procedure Act claims in a 59-page order.

• The government conceded Anthropic has no backdoor access to deployed models and is no riskier than any other AI system.

• Anthropic lost on one count, its claim that Trump's directive to federal agencies exceeded presidential power.

A federal judge has ruled that the Trump administration illegally punished Anthropic for publicly refusing to let the military use its Claude LLM for tasks including mass surveillance of Americans and lethal autonomous warfare.

The dispute began when the Pentagon told Anthropic to strip all usage restrictions and accept a clause permitting "all lawful uses." Anthropic dropped most of them and held two red lines.

On February 27, Trump ordered every federal agency to stop using the company's technology, calling it a "RADICAL LEFT, WOKE COMPANY" on Truth Social.

Hegseth followed, accusing Anthropic in a tweet of "a master class in arrogance and betrayal" and barring any military contractor from doing business with it.

What the record showed

The government has since abandoned its central claim.

Its risk assessment rested on Anthropic having backdoor access to deployed models, and it now concedes Anthropic has no such access and that Claude is no riskier than any other "black box" system.

That left one factor: trust, forfeited by what a Pentagon memo called Anthropic's "increasingly hostile manner through the press."

Lin found the timeline gave that away.

Days before the blacklisting, Hegseth had floated invoking the Defense Production Act, which would have made Anthropic essential to national security. The day after the designation, an under secretary emailed the company to say a contract was "very close."

The government is still discussing collaboration on Mythos, Anthropic's newest model, across sensitive contexts, Lin added.

"The empty invocation of national security is not a blank check to punish and retaliate against government critics," Lin wrote, finding the actions retaliatory under the First Amendment, imposed without the pre-deprivation process the Fifth Amendment requires, outside the supply chain statute, and arbitrary and capricious.

Anthropic did not win everything.

Lin rejected its argument that Trump's directive exceeded presidential authority, and entered judgment for agencies that took no action.

She vacated the designation and Hegseth's boycott order, granted a permanent injunction, and denied the government's request for a seven-day administrative stay, noting it had operated under a preliminary injunction since March without identifying any harm.

Anthropic told the court the measures, left standing, would cut its defense-related revenue by 50% to 100% and its 2026 revenue by billions.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 10:15

"No Longer Negative": BLS Annual Benchmark Revision Will Revise Payrolls Higher For First Time Since 2022

On Friday at 10am ET (at the same time as Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to the level of nonfarm payrolls for March 2026. The final benchmark revision will be issued and incorporated into nonfarm payrolls alongside the January 2027 employment report in February 2027.

The key source data for the benchmark revision comes from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is derived from state unemployment insurance records, and which is much more accurate than the BLS's own internal surveys. The March 2026 QCEW data will be released at the same time as the preliminary benchmark estimate, introducing uncertainty around the ultimate size of the revision. However, as Goldman writes in its revision preview note (available to pro subs), based on the nine months of data released since the last benchmarked period, March 2025, a modest upward revision appears likely, the first one since 2022  and follows the massive negative revisions of 2023 and 2024.

Indeed, Goldman expects a preliminary upward revision on the order of 50-450k which would translate to a 5-40k upward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026. A final revision of this magnitude would result in the average pace of payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026 being revised up from about 25k/month currently to 30-65k/month.

The preliminary estimate for the benchmark revision will likely understate the final revision: the chart above shows that the preliminary estimate has been below the final revision in each of the last six years, by roughly 100k on average. This reflects that the QCEW itself has been revised up in every quarter since 2019 with the exception of 2020H1 (chart below), potentially reflecting ongoing issues with initial submissions to the administrative records that inform the QCEW.

Revisions to the QCEW are one reason why the BLS only benchmarks payrolls to the QCEW annually and with a long lag.

An upward benchmark revision would mark the first since 2022. The last two benchmark revisions in particular have been quite negative, in our view likely reflecting difficulties accounting for unauthorized workers in the QCEW. (This potential undercounting is less of an issue for this year’s benchmark given the sharp slowdown in immigration, and should also be less of an issue going forward.) As we discussed first a few years ago when we correctly previewed the massive negative revisions to 2023 and 2024 data, since the QCEW is based on unemployment insurance records, it likely excludes most unauthorized workers, who contributed to employment growth in the periods covered by those benchmark revisions. In most cases unauthorized workers do not qualify for unemployment insurance, so employers might see little reason to pay unemployment insurance tax on their behalf and might even see it as a needless risk in the cases of any immigrants they are employing who do not yet have work permits.

The BLS provides a decomposition of the sources of benchmark revisions each year, split between revisions that arise from miscalibration of the birth-death model and revisions from other sources, such as sampling and reporting errors. Consistent with difficulties accounting for unauthorized workers, only a modest share of the last two benchmark revisions - and just 14% of last year’s very large revision - can be attributed to miscalibration of the birth-death model; the bulk instead falls into the residual category which would capture the reporting error arising from a systematic undercount of unauthorized workers.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 09:18

Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Democratic Socialism promises affordability and fairness. The bill, from Caracas to Copenhagen, is something else entirely.

On January 1st, a self-described democratic socialist was sworn in as mayor of the largest city in America. Weeks before that, socialist candidates swept a wave of primaries, sending the largest bloc of socialist legislators in New York history to Albany and two more to Congress. Then a billionaire governor, JB Pritzker, went on CNN, was asked whether the socialist wins were a good thing, and answered that they are “the recipe for winning in 2026 and beyond.” Make no mistake, democratic socialism is no longer a fringe idea in America. It’s a live political program with real momentum. The only question that matters is what it delivers after you buy it.

I have been managing money for a very long time through many market cycles, from manias to crashes. Over that time, I have learned to separate what a policy promises from what it produces. So let’s do that honestly here, starting with a concession most defenders of markets won’t make: Capitalism has flaws.

Capitalism Has Flaws

Capitalism is not perfect, and pretending otherwise is how you lose the argument before it starts. The system distributes rewards unevenly, routinely runs in boom-and-bust cycles, and has produced a K-shaped economy where asset owners pulled away from wage earners after 2008 and again after 2020. Housing, healthcare, and childcare have all outrun paychecks, and younger workers look at home prices and tuition bills and conclude the game is rigged.

I get it, and most importantly, I agree.

However, here’s the part that should bother free-market defenders most. A lot of that anger is aimed at something real. As I’ve written before, the serial bailouts since 2008 have socialized losses for the powerful while everyone else has absorbed the cost. That’s not capitalism working. That’s capitalism being corrupted. So when a 28-year-old votes for Zohran Mamdani, the grievance underneath the vote is not stupid. It’s the diagnosis of the cure that fails, and it fails badly.

Let’s dig into something equally important.

Democratic Socialism Is Not Social Democracy

The biggest source of confusion in this whole debate is the word itself. People use “socialism” to describe two systems that could not be more different, and the sloppiness is doing real work.

Socialism, in the textbook sense, means the state or “the community” owns the means of production. The government runs the factories, the banks, and the farms. Central planners, not markets, set prices. Social democracy is a completely different animal. It keeps private ownership, market prices, and free trade fully intact, then layers a large, tax-funded welfare state on top. One replaces the market. The other feeds off it.

Why does the distinction matter so much? Because the countries that collapsed were the first kind. And the countries American progressives actually point to, Denmark and Sweden, are the second kind, which is “Democratic Socialism.” They aren’t socialist at all. We’ll get to why that gap sinks the whole pitch. First, the table.

The Purest Version: Collapse, Then A New Elite

Start at the far end of the spectrum, because that’s where the theory gets its cleanest test. Venezuela was the richest country in Latin America, sitting atop the world’s largest oil reserves. Then Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro nationalized hundreds of companies, imposed price controls, and expropriated private land in the name of the people.

The result was the deepest peacetime economic collapse in modern history outside of war. Output per person fell by roughly three-quarters. Food production dropped 75%. Inflation crossed a million percent. Nearly eight million people walked out of the country on foot.

One point critics will reach for is U.S. sanctions. That is true, but those sanctions arrived later and only deepened the existing wound. But the collapse was well underway before the 2017 sanctions, and other oil states rode out the same 2014 price crash with their economies intact. The wound was self-inflicted. During the boom years, many Western admirers held up Venezuela as proof that socialism works. It wasn’t.

Now, the part that the brochure never mentions, and what you have to be very careful of when voting for it. Socialism promises to abolish the elite. In reality, it only installs a new and more deeply entrenched one.

The Soviet Union had its nomenklatura, the party class with private stores and country dachas. North Korea is on its third generation of hereditary Kim rule, a monarchy with a red flag. China favors its “princelings,” the descendants of the original revolutionaries. Venezuela produced the boliburguesia, the connected insiders who grew rich while the country starved. So, the reality is that SOMEONE will always end up on top, it just won’t be you or the average worker.

Look at who leads the movement here at home. The new face is Mamdani, son of a Columbia University professor and a globally acclaimed filmmaker. The loudest establishment cheerleader is Pritzker, heir to the Hyatt fortune, worth close to $4 billion, assuring everyone that taxing the rich is only fair. These are not people who have missed a meal. That’s the pattern across a century of these movements, and it’s no accident. The bigger the state you build to deliver “equality,” the bigger the prize for whoever captures it.

Markets, Not Manifestos, End Poverty

Run the film in reverse, and the lesson is just as sharp. Under Mao’s fully planned economy, the Great Leap Forward produced the deadliest famine in human history, killing somewhere between 10 and 40 million people. Then Deng Xiaoping said four words that changed the world: “Poverty is not socialism.” He handed farmers their own plots, opened special economic zones, and let prices and trade do their work.

The result is the single largest reduction in human poverty ever recorded.

China’s extreme poverty rate fell from roughly 88% in 1981 to under 4% by 2016. Around 800 million people climbed out of destitution, accounting for about three-quarters of all global poverty reduction over that period. India tells the same story after it dismantled its socialist “License Raj” in 1991 and let markets breathe.

Here’s the point, and it’s the one that should stop a thoughtful young voter cold. China is not free. It’s an authoritarian state. Yet the moment it let private ownership and market prices operate, outcomes improved faster than any welfare program in history could dream of. That’s how much power sits in the market mechanism, and it’s exactly the machinery socialism proposes to switch off. We’ve laid out the deeper data on this in Capitalism: The Road To Wealth And Happiness.

“But Scandinavia Works”

This is the strongest argument the other side has for democratic socialism, so let’s take it seriously. The Nordic countries have universal healthcare, cheap college, low poverty, and citizens who report being among the happiest on earth. Bernie Sanders has spent a decade telling Americans to look to Denmark and Sweden. If that’s democratic socialism, why not copy it?

Because it isn’t socialism. Not remotely. Denmark’s own prime minister traveled to Harvard to correct the record, telling Americans plainly, “Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy.” The Nordics rank among the freest economies in the world. On the Fraser Institute’s index, Denmark sits at #10, ahead of most of Europe. They have flexible labor markets, no legislated national minimum wage, strong property rights, aggressive free trade, corporate taxes lower than ours, and, in Sweden’s case, a nationwide school voucher system American progressives would call heresy.

When you compare Venezuela to Denmark, the word “socialism” gets stretched across right next to each other, and the argument ends itself.

Denmark also got rich first, back when it was a low-tax economy, and then reformed hard back toward markets in the 1990s after the welfare state had stalled its growth in the 1970s and 80s. And here’s the detail the pitch always leaves out. They pay for it by taxing the middle class, not just billionaires.

Think a 25% national sales tax and income tax rates that bite ordinary workers, not a magic levy that falls only on the yacht crowd. The Nordic model is capitalism with a big, broadly financed welfare state. Copy the capitalism if you like. The part U.S. socialists want to skip, the broad taxes and the market discipline, is the part that makes the whole thing stand up.

The Bill Comes Home: Taxes, Wealth, And Free Money

The American program for democratic socialism rests on two pillars: much higher taxes and some form of guaranteed income. Both have a track record, and neither is kind.

Start with “tax the rich,” which assumes the rich aren’t already carrying the load. They are. The top 1% of earners pay 38% of all federal income taxes while earning about 21% of the income. The top 10% pay more than 70%, and the top half pays 97% of the entire federal income tax take. The bottom half pays a little over 3%. We run the most progressive income tax in the developed world.

Now to the fairness point people raise, and it’s a fair one. Lower earners still pay payroll taxes. True. But once you count what comes back, the picture flips. The Congressional Budget Office finds that after transfers, Medicaid, food assistance, and refundable credits, the lowest fifth of households carries a net federal tax rate of roughly 0.5%.

In 2020, it went negative, meaning they received more than they paid. Over half of all means-tested transfers flow to the bottom fifth, three-quarters to the bottom two-fifths, while the top fifth pays more than two-thirds of all federal taxes. The reality is that the productive top is already funding the safety net. There’s no vast, untapped vein of “the rich” sitting there to bankroll a far larger state.

So how do the countries that actually run these programs pay for them? Not the way the slogans suggest. The math of democratic socialism forces the burden down onto the middle. Here is what the American tax base looks like today, next to what it would have to become if we adopted the Nordic model these candidates hold up as the goal.

Read that table again, because it’s the whole argument in one frame. In America, the top rate hits at roughly 9x the average wage. In Denmark, it is about 1.3x the average wage. The barista and the surgeon land in nearly the same bracket, and a 25% sales tax greets both of them at the register on almost everything they buy. That is not a tax on the rich. It’s a tax on working and middle-class life, and it has to be, because as the Tax Foundation flatly concludes, mirroring the Scandinavian model would raise taxes in the U.S. “especially on the middle class.”

What about a wealth tax, then? Europe already ran that experiment. In 1990, a dozen countries levied one. Today, four do. France lost an estimated 12,000 millionaires in a single year and raised less than 0.2% of GDP before scrapping its version. Capital and the people who own it don’t sit still and wait to be taxed. They move.

And the second pillar, universal basic income? A recent review of 122 guaranteed-income pilots found that the larger, more credible studies showed employment falling rather than rising. The deeper flaw is one of economic gravity. Production has to come before consumption. Send out checks without new output, and prices simply rise to swallow them, exactly what 2021 showed. We covered this at length in UBI: Tried, Tested, and Failed As Expected and in A Robot Economy. All of it lands on a country already carrying $39 trillion in debt, north of 120% of GDP, spending more than a trillion a year just on interest. There is no fiscal room for this. None.

Every Flaw, Made Worse

Here’s where it comes together. Go back to capitalism’s real flaws, the ones I named up top, and watch what social democracy actually does to each one.

Worried about inequality? Socialism produces the most extreme concentrations of power and wealth on record, and it hands them to a political class you can’t vote out and can’t compete with. Money inequality is at least contestable. Power inequality is not. On top of that, funding the program with a printing press delivers inflation, which is the single most regressive tax there is. It robs the poor first. The cure deepens the disease.

Angry about cronyism and bailouts for the connected? Then the last thing you want is a bigger state. Every dollar of economic activity you route through government becomes another dollar the well-connected fight to capture. The bigger the prize, the harder they fight, and they always win. You don’t end cronyism by enlarging the thing cronies feed on. You starve it.

Furious about the cost of housing, healthcare, and childcare? Those are already the three most government-distorted markets in America. Rent control shrinks the housing supply. Subsidies poured in without new supply getting absorbed into higher prices, which is why childcare grew less affordable even as the subsidies grew. More of the same intervention makes the scarcity WORSE, not better. And stagnant wages? Wages rise on productivity, productivity rises on investment, and investment flees higher taxes and capital controls. Ask the thousands who left France or the millions who left Venezuela.

So yes, capitalism is flawed, but democratic socialism only makes it worse. But the honest fix is to remove the distortions, end the bailouts, stop debasing the money, break the regulatory capture, and clear the way for supply. That’s the argument I’ve made for years in pieces like our work on productivity and jobs. The fix is more competition and sounder money. It is not a system that takes every flaw you’re angry about and pours gasoline on it. As Howard Marks likes to say about cycles, the seeds of the next problem are planted in the solution to the last one. Social democracy is that seed.

What It Means For Your Money

So, what does this have to do with money and your portfolio? A durable shift of democratic socialism toward higher taxes on capital, wealth levies, and deficit-financed transfers changes the terrain on which investors stand. It raises the odds of higher structural inflation, pressures the currency, and invites the kind of capital flight that has followed these policies wherever they’ve been tried.

The practical takeaways are straightforward. Own productive assets, the businesses and hard assets that hold value when money is being debased. Watch policy risk at the state and municipal level, where these ideas arrive first and where capital and residents vote with their feet. And keep the long view. The market engine that compounds wealth over decades is precisely what’s on the ballot. Protecting your exposure to it is not a political act. It’s a risk-management one.

The appeal of democratic socialism is real because the pain it speaks to is real. I won’t pretend otherwise. But intentions are not outcomes, and history has handed us the outcomes in ink, from Caracas to the old Soviet bloc to the Nordic countries that quietly kept their capitalism. The promise is a beautiful cake. The aftertaste is shortages, capital flight, inflation, and a new elite standing where the old one used to be.

Capitalism’s flaws are worth fixing, and we should fix them. Replacing the system that produced the highest living standards in human history, in order to cure its imperfections, is how you end up with the imperfections and none of the living standards. That’s the trade on the table. Look closely before you take it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 09:00

Futures Flat, Bonds Drop Ahead Of Warsh Jackson Hole Speech

US stock futures are flat and rates rise ahead of today's main event: Fed chief Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech at 10am ET (full preview here) as traders seek clarity on his economic outlook and his strategy for lowering inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are little changed and Nasdaq 100 futures are lower following the Nvidia-driven rally for the index in the prior session, when however only 30% of the S&P and 1 of 11 sectors closed green as the index continues to be carried by a handful of AI names while the median stock goes nowhere. Pre-market, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher led by TSLA (+0.6%) and AMZN (+0.3%); NVDA is the laggard (-0.5%). PayPal slumped 16% in premarket trading after Advent and Stripe abandoned their pursuit of the firm. Overnight, headlines were largely quiet with WTI dropping further as the Iran conflict remains quiet. Bond yields are 1-2bps higher (10Y 4.69% and 3Y rates up two basis points to 5.21%) while the dollar and gold barely budged. Brent crude fluctuated. Copper headed for a ninth weekly gain, the longest run since 2020. USD is flat. Commodities are all modestly higher across base metals, precious metals (silver +1.5%) and ags. Today's US economic data calendar includes August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m. New York time, several minutes earlier for subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed services activity (11 a.m.). 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher: Tesla +0.4%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.2%, Apple +0.2%, Microsoft -0.3%, Nvidia -0.3%

• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) climbs 13% after the financial technology company forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Also, the company and Shopify expanded their global partnership to launch Shop Pay Installments in Australia.
• Autodesk (ADSK) falls 4% as the application software company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Citi notes that the company’s sales growth looks to be moderating in the second half of the year.
• Elastic (ESTC) rises 18% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year and posted guidance that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Gap (GAP) gains 14% after the apparel retailer named Michael Francis as head of Old Navy and profit outpaced estimates, offsetting a sales decline at the value chain and lower sales guidance.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported second-quarter results that modestly beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus. However, shares of the chipmaker are down 7%; the stock had soared more than 180% this year, as of its Thursday close.
• PayPal (PYPL) falls 17% as people familiar with the matter say that a consortium of buyout firm Advent and payment processor Stripe has decided to abandon its pursuit of the fintech pioneer.
• SentinelOne (S) falls 3% as the cybersecurity platform’s forecast for fiscal-year adjusted EPS trails the average estimate.
• Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) rises 15% after the company and Element Solutions mutually agreed to terminate their merger pact.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) falls about 1% as higher discounts and promotions weighed on the cosmetics retailer’s margins. Analysts said gross margins were underwhelming but noted guidance could be conservative.

In other corporate news Gap jumped in premarket trading after naming a retail industry veteran as head of Old Navy and reporting profit above estimates, offsetting a sales decline at the value chain and lower sales guidance. Tencent released a foundation model it says outperforms rivals Z.AI and Moonshot AI in internal tests. The UAE has given SpaceX’s Starlink a 10-year general satellite services license. Fox responded to a Reuters report that Rupert Murdoch and Lachlan Murdoch are considering a recombination of Fox and News Corp., saying there have been no discussions on the topic since consideration of a possible merger in 2022. Element Solutions and Solstice Advanced Materials mutually agreed to terminate their merger pact.

As described in our Jackson Hole preview (here) Warsh’s address, scheduled for 10 a.m. New York time, is shaping up as a crucial moment for markets as doubts about his commitment to taming inflation have helped push up long-term yields. A divided policy committee and the Treasury’s bond market intervention are further complicating the backdrop.

“Investors are reluctant to increase their exposure just hours before Kevin Warsh’s speech,” said Nabil Milali at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “His recent comments have been so vague that no one knows what to expect today, with some investors anticipating a very hawkish message and others expecting the exact opposite.” 

Warsh’s speech could flatten the US yield curve, bolster risk appetite and support the dollar, if he gets it right, according to Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. “What investors want to see is the framework that the Fed is using to think about the economy to allow markets to better assess incoming data,” said Hugh Gimber, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “That’s the piece that’s been missing at the moment.”

Goldman rates trader George Cole made the following notable remarks ahead of J-Hole:

Obviously the speech is very interesting in the context of the buyback announcement, the Druckenmiller op-ed, and the July meeting, which was a head-scratcher. He seemed to endorse the idea that higher long-end yields were a reflection of the market finally standing on its own feet and getting some vol back after years of central bank repression. I think that's a somewhat false narrative, but that was the story he gave us — only for Bessent to say the market doesn't understand the fundamentals, has the price wrong. Philosophically, you can't claim to want an unpolluted read of market pricing while bullying that same market. So we'd be surprised if he re-runs the July script and celebrates the move higher in long-end yields.

What we're looking for instead is something vol-reducing: marginally hawkish near term, but fundamentally calming. The market isn't worried about the Fed's stance — it's confused about what the Fed is actually doing.

Three things would help: 1) a clear statement that the policy rate, not long-end yields, is the main transmission mechanism; 2) an acknowledgement that recent data has been encouraging and reaffirms recent FOMC decisions — not forward guidance, but evidence the Fed is reading the data in a familiar, sensible way; and 3) a recommitment to price stability that sounds a bit more like June.

The speech will be more significant for foreign-exchange, gold and bond markets than for equities, said Ulrich Urbahn at Berenberg. History suggests a similar response, with the S&P 500 gaining just 0.4% on average in the week following the gathering, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “A firm message on inflation, fiscal credibility or the need to preserve restrictive policy would tend to lift real and nominal long-end yields, support the dollar and pressure duration-sensitive assets,” Urbahn said.

Bloomberg’s Editorial Board writes that investors demanding clear answers to their many questions from his speech are almost certain to come away disappointed.

“Warsh can and should try to dispel some of the doubts that have arisen since his appointment began in May. But it’ll be a while before he can provide a definitive account of his preferred approach to monetary policy. Having commissioned five task forces of eminent experts to offer advice, he has little choice but to wait until they’ve reported back and he and his colleagues have discussed the findings.” - Bloomberg Editorial

What can’t wait, though, is a commitment to investors that the Fed will freely explain the rationale for its actions going forward. To put it more bluntly, Warsh needs to say: “Message received.”

Elsewhere, Citadel Securities posted a record $7.3 billion of trading revenue for the second quarter, more than triple on a year earlier. A US judge ruled that the Trump administration must lift its ban on Anthropic’s AI technology for federal agencies.

The flood of debt financing for AI capex is causing “indigestion” in fixed-income markets and fueling yields, but that dynamic should result in decent longer-term returns for investors, according to Pimco. Meanwhile, BCA Research chief economist Peter Berezin highlights that hyperscaler depreciation expense is set to jump to over $500 billion by 2030, equal to the expected operating profits of all five companies in 2026.

In other assets, oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Copper edged closer to a record high, with three-month futures trading above $14,300 a ton in London, on track for a ninth weekly gain, the longest such run since 2020.

In geopolitics, the US is in talks with Venezuela to take a large stake in its oil fields, which would extend the Trump administration’s influence on the post-Maduro government and the nation’s vast energy reserves. Iran said putting US diplomacy back on track “isn’t impossible.”

The Stoxx 600 is up by 0.5% in a broad rally in European equities, and set for a fifth straight monthly advance ahead of speeches by central bankers at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Consumer, autos and chemicals sectors are the best performers. Media and real estate are among the few decliners. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• BMW rises as much as 2.4% and Forvia gains as much as 4.9% as Citi places the stocks on positive watches, saying there may be some room for relief from current low levels as the automotive sector continues to face structural challenges.
• Ackermans shares rise as much as 8.5% as KBC Securities says the investment company had “closed a solid first half.”
• Interparfums shares gain as much as 5.4% as Oddo BHF raises its recommendation on the French firm to outperform from neutral, saying new products should boost revenue.
• Hays gains as much as 6.2% as Panmure Liberum upgrades to buy, boosts its price target to a Street-high and says “for the first time in a long time” there is asymmetric risk profile to the upside on estimates.
• Strabag shares rise as much as 12% after the Austrian construction company boosted its Ebit margin forecast for the full year.
• Recticel gains as much as 6.7% with KBC Securities saying the insulation product manufacturer exceeded first-half consensus adjusted Ebitda expectations by 9%.
• Goodwin shares rally as much as 13% after the engineering company reported record profits in the last financial year and announced plans to return a “substantial part” of any proceeds from selling its Mechanical Engineering division to shareholders.
• Sivers Semiconductors fall as much as 22% after the Swedish electrical component manufacturer reported second-quarter earnings which included a drop in net sales and accelerating operating losses. Shares are still up over 600% year to date.
• Boozt falls as much as 8.5% after an offering of shares by holder Ferd prices at SEK145/share, a 7.05% discount to Thursday’s close.

Asian stocks edged higher, with cyclical sectors among the top gainers, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole later today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2% after rising as much as 0.6%. Financials, industrials and materials were among the best-performing sectors on the gauge. Meanwhile, a subgauge of tech shares gave up early gains spurred by optimism over Nvidia’s strong outlook. The MSCI Asia gauge was up 0.4% for the week, on track for a fifth weekly gain in six. The regional benchmark is up 3.1% so far in August, poised for its first monthly increase since May. Still, sentiment remains fragile amid continued concerns over Big Tech spending, geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices.

“Despite the strong performance of US stock indices yesterday, we saw this morning that risk appetite remained limited in Asian markets, mainly because investors are reluctant to increase their exposure just hours before Warsh’s speech,” said Nabil Milali, a portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “His recent comments have been so vague that no one knows what to expect today, with some investors anticipating a very hawkish message and others expecting the exact opposite.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed; the yen led losses among major currencies, moving closer to 160 against the dollar and heading for its lowest level since the coordinated  US-Japan intervention at the end of July. Japan spent a record $96.4 billion over the past month to support the currency, according to data released by the Finance Ministry on Friday.

In rates, treasuries are mostly muted as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole address, and hold small losses, lifting yields by about 1bp inside this week’s ranges, with Warsh holding the potential to alter market pricing for a single quarter-point interest-rate increase by year-end and high likelihood of a second by mid-2027. 10-year yield is about 2bps higher on the day near 4.69%, outperforming UK and German counterparts.Yield-curve flattening trend unleashed by last week’s Treasury Department decision to expand buybacks targeting 10- to 30-year sectors has stalled.5s30 spread, about 1bp wider near 80bp, fell below 79bp Thursday to the lowest level since July 29, most recent Federal Reserve decision date, while 2s10s, more than 1bp steeper near 45bp, breached 43bp, lowest since Aug. 7.  IG credit new-issue calendar is anticipated to be light through month-end; activity ground to a halt Thursday.

In commodities, oil prices lower with Brent hovering around $89/barrel and WTI around $83, while gold is holding close to $4,600/oz and silver is rallying. Bitcoin is trading below $80,000.

Today's US economic data calendar includes August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m. New York time, several minutes earlier for subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed services activity (11 a.m.). Fed speaker slate also includes Cleveland Fed’s Hammack at 9 a.m. and Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee at 12:40 p.m.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The top US commander for the Middle East said that American forces have cleared Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz, after Washington’s allies expressed doubts about similar claims by President Donald Trump.
• Qatar's prime minister visited Tehran on Thursday in an effort to revive stalled diplomacy six months into the war, as U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was not currently talking to Iran. RTRS
• Venezuela is considering whether it should quit OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially delivering a fresh blow to the oil cartel it helped create more than six decades ago. BBG
• Jackson Hole Preview: Warsh to speak at 10am & GS econ expects him to reiterate his commitment to the 2% inflation target, expand on the rationale behind his approach to Fed communication and offer thoughts on some bigger picture topics such as productivity growth or shocks to the global economy that he alluded to at his last press conference. He's likely to acknowledge the better recent inflation news but is unlikely to provide any policy guidance. Full Preview here
• Howard Lutnick accused Canada of scuttling trade talks by adding last-minute demands, saying PM Mark Carney had political incentives to kill an emerging deal. BBG
• A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order that prevents the Postal Service from inserting itself into the election process while litigation continues: NBC
• Nippon Life Insurance Co., Japan’s largest life insurer, said it is open to becoming a net buyer of government bonds next fiscal year as it finds current interest rates attractive. BBG
• Japan spent a record $96.4 billion over the past month to support the yen, underscoring the authorities’ willingness to deploy increasingly aggressive tactics to put a floor under the currency. BBG
• Tokyo’s key inflation gauge accelerated for a third month even as the government took steps to reduce energy costs, bolstering the case for another Bank of Japan interest-rate increase as market expectations mount for a move in September. RTRS
• Spanish inflation surged to 4.5% in August, more than double the ECB’s target, while France’s 2.7% reading exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for a rate increase next month. BBG
• US President Trump's administration is mulling a 500mln gallon boost to 2027 biofuel quotas to offset exemptions

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside, where all indices rose and the Nasdaq outperformed post-NVIDIA earnings, but almost all sectors were in the red aside from tech, while the attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Warsh's keynote speech. ASX 200 was higher with notable outperformance in tech, although consumer stocks and real estate lagged amid the recent increased bets for the RBA to resume its hiking cycle next month. Nikkei 225 rallied as participants digested the latest data releases, including a surprise decline in the Unemployment Rate, while Tokyo CPI matched estimates, with the Core reading remaining beneath the 2% goal. KOSPI bucked the trend amid weakness in South Korean tech giants despite the sector doing much of the heavy lifting across global markets, while there was a report that SK Hynix lagged rivals in NAND process-node transitions, with slower upgrades and reduced NAND capex eroding its cost competitiveness and market share. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat but with the upside limited amid a slew of earnings releases and with participants also bracing for results from Chinese big banks.

Top Asian News

• S&P affirmed China at A+; Outlook Stable. Said a stable outlook on long term rating reflects the view that China will provide larger fiscal support to keep the economy growing at around 4% over the next two years.
• China’s Ministry of Finance said the country will implement proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year; long term positive fundamentals remain unchanged.

European bourses are entirely in the green, with the CAC 40 the clear outperformer as it rebounds from yesterday's downside. The main driver of Thursday's losses was the presidential debate that took place between candidates. The key focus was on how the candidates would approach France's debt problem; no consensus was agreed on the stage on how to solve the problem, but suggestions ranged from waiving interest payments on ECB-owned debt to cutting welfare spending. Overall, Politico says no candidate pulled off a clear winner and that the presidential race remains open. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Consumer Products & Services top the sector pile, with Autos and Chemicals rounding out the top 3 performers. To the downside is Media, followed by Real Estate and Retail. Key movers include: UK defence names, FT reported that Chancellor Healey will shelve its defence spending target at October's budget; EssilorLuxottica (+3.3%), announces share buybacks of up to 5mln shares; Strabag (+10.7%), H1 revenue beat and raises its FY26 guidance; Siemens (+1.5%), upgraded to buy at Erste.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Healey will reportedly shelve defence spending target when presenting October budget, the FT reported.

FX

• G10s lack a bias ahead of the Warsh Jackson Hole speech with **most currencies flat vs the USD. **
• DXY ekes modest gains after surpassing the 200DMA of 99.16 ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech. Performance across majors is lacklustre with most currencies weaker, albeit small in magnitude.
• Into the speech, some analysts have suggested that the market could again be left disappointed; Saxo Bank says the title of the forum suggests that Warsh will deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing rather than the Fed’s thoughts on interest rates - Previous Fed chairs have used the forum to signal upcoming policy actions. However, Warsh has begun his term with a bias against issuing any forward guidance, and has made the case that such guidance can shackle officials to their earlier forecasts, and his approach of little guidance will allow markets to interpret the data themselves.
• MUFG says the closest historical comparisons to today’s speech are “probably 2008 or 2016” given the level of uncertainty, which both garnered 0.7% move in EUR/USD - FX options price a 46pip move in EUR/USD today, lower than the historicals that MUFG refers to.
• While OATs saw some weakness at the open, EUR was steady throughout the French Presidential debate. Focus now shifts to Fitch’s rating on France this evening, seen unchanged, and the Socialist party which are set to unveil demands for France’s 2027 budget over the weekend. EUR/USD likely at the whim of the Buck into the highly anticipated Warsh speech, 200DMA c. 10 pips below will likely support the pair for the moment.
• GBP/USD is flat but off worst levels after finding support at 1.3580. A couple updates on the domestic political front. The FT reported UK Chancellor Healey will shelve defence spending targets when presenting the October budget, a move which could save as much as GBP 10bln/year, based on OBR forecasts. It was separately reported that there could be potential modifications to council taxes, though no GBP move was seen on this report.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are under very mild pressure this morning, but with price action ultimately muted ahead of the day’s key risk events. USTs (-2 ticks) trade within a narrow 108-16 to 108-20 range, whilst Bunds (-21 ticks) and Gilts (-29 ticks) are hampered by elevated gas prices.
• USTs are trading in an exceptionally thin range this morning as attention remains on two key risk events. Firstly, Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak at 15:00 BST (10:00 EDT). Whether he touches on monetary policy remains to be seen, but even if he doesn’t, there is a risk markets will begin to price in credibility woes once again. At the same time as Warsh, the BLS will release the annual NFP benchmark revision; consensus sees a revision of +200k.
• Over in Europe, EGBs and Gilts have been subject to a few days in the red, as gas prices remain elevated. A lot of that pressure is attributed to fears surrounding low gas storage, and recent punchy rhetoric out of Russia has also not helped the mood.
• For France specifically, OATs have had the first Presidential debate to digest. Ultimately, there was no clear victor, but the confab made evident the stark contrast in views held between parties. This can be evidenced in the 10yr OAT/Bund spread, which remains near recent highs at 85bps, but ultimately fairly stable today.
• OATs (-15 ticks) are faring a touch better vs peers this morning, potentially as leading candidate Le Pen provided further colour on how she would solve France’s debt problem. She noted that spending needed to be cut, arguing that France should not commit more than EUR 5bln to the EU (vs ~EUR 29bln in 2026). She said she would present a EUR 125bln cost-cutting plan before the next budget debate, which will only happen once PM Lecornu submits the 2027 budget bill (end-Sept).
• Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 5.75-6.5bln 3.15% 2031, 4.00% 2036 BTP and EUR 2bln vs. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.773% 2034, 1.645% 2035 CCTeu.
• Japan sells JPY 2.15tln 2-year JGBs: b/c 2.97x (prev. 3.63x), average yield 1.708% (prev. 1.483%), Tail in price 0.034 (prev. 0.007).
• Australia sells AUD 800mln 4.25% December 2035 Bonds: b/c 3.88x, avg. yield 5.0539%.

Commodities

• Geopolitical updates have lacked anything tangible, even though rhetoric has been hawkish. US President Trump dismissed immediate negotiations and suggested sanctions and the Hormuz blockade are putting Tehran under severe strain. Washington says the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared of mines and shipping lanes reopened, while Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing G20 countries to cut Iranian and IRGC revenue flows. Iran, meanwhile, says it is preparing conditions for reopening the Strait, has agreed on a potential corridor with Oman, and warns it could strike US military and economic interests if pressure continues. Despite mediation efforts by Oman and Qatar, the US says no negotiations are currently planned and does not recognise the reported Iran-Oman arrangement.
• Nonetheless, amid the lack of a notable escalation, WTI and Brent futures are subdued intraday, with the former in a USD 82.54-83.78/bbl range and the latter in a USD 87.60-88.61/bbl range. Participants, as usual, are eyeing any tangible updates on escalations/de-escalations. Dutch TTF, conversely, is firmer by around 2.2% at EUR 69.79/MWh, continuing to be buoyed by supply concerns as Europe replenishes winter stock. Note that the contract briefly notched the EUR 70/MWh mark.
• Precious metals are firmer despite a resilient USD against the backdrop of softer oil prices, but following two sessions of weakness. Spot gold resides towards the top of a narrow USD 4,571-4,614/oz range within yesterday’s band between USD 4,564-4,643/oz. Spot silver gains after finding a comfortable footing above its 100 DMA (USD 68.19/oz), with the precious metal back on a USD 70/oz handle in a USD 68.44-70.95/oz range.
• Base metals mostly eke mild gains despite DXY remaining resilient, and with downside capped amid expectations for near-term Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 14,277.65-14,345.00/t range at the time of writing.
• Venezuela is reportedly mulling leaving OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Saudi Aramco reportedly sold around 4mln barrels of Arab Medium and Heavy crudes to Chinese refiners for loading in September at locations just outside Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.
• Chinese State Planner is to raise domestic gasoline prices by CNY 375/t and diesel by CNY 360/t.
• Kazakhstan has restored oil production to normal levels, which were previously reduced due to the attacks on the CPC, according to Interfax.
• Qatar Energy extended the LNG force majeure to Edison (EDNR IM) until November 4th.
• Global Aluminium producer is seeking a premium of USD 310/t for October-December 2026 in talks with Japan (-22% Q/Q), according to source reports.
• Ukraine’s agriculture minister said the country’s winter wheat planting area is expected to decline in 2027.

Trade/Tariffs

• Canada's ambassador to Washington said Canada cannot accept a US trade deal unless it ensures survival of robust Canadian auto assembly and parts industry, while he stated that Canada's removal of tariffs on US seafood was done more for technical reasons than as a sign of a quick resumption of negotiations.

Central Banks

• ECB's Kazaks said that inflation must not be allowed to take root.
• Poll shows 27 out of 31 economists expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps to 2.75% at next week's meeting, while more than two thirds of economists at least one more rate hike after September to lift the OCR to 3.00% or above by year-end

Geopolitics: Iran

• Two regional sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiations, Axios reported.
• US President Trump posted that "Iran Is a Failing Nation!", while he separately commented "I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal".
• US Central Command Commander Cooper said the US military successfully cleared sea mines laid in Strait of Hormuz and international shipping lanes are open.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said discussions with Qatar’s PM and foreign minister showed diplomacy could be restored, but argued that the US must abandon pressure, build trust, respect Iran’s rights, and honour its commitments.
• Iran's Parliament Member Kawsari said "Any agreement with Oman is subject to the lifting of the naval blockade." US messages have reached through Qatar, Oman and Pakistan, but Iran will only enter the operational phase after implementing several paragraphs.
• Yemeni sources reported that Saudi artillery targeted residential villages in the Al-Thabit area of Qatabar, Saada Province, Yemen, Nour News reported.

Geopolitics: Ukraine/China

• Ukraine's Military said it struck an oil refinery in Yaroslavl, Russia.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan will respond calmly and appropriately to relations with China and will keep dialogue open.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Aug MNI Chicago PMI, est. 57.9, prior 57.6
• 10:00 am: United States Aug F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51, prior 51

Central Banks

• 9:00 am: Fed’s Hammack on BTV
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium
• 12:40 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a very mixed performance yesterday, as investors grappled with several competing trends. On the upside, Nvidia’s results led to renewed optimism around AI, and the resulting bounce in tech stocks pushed the S&P 500 (+0.72%) to its best day in three weeks. But apart from the tech rally there were consistent losses, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.69%) had its worst day in a month thanks to a fresh rise in energy prices, alongside a notable underperformance for French banks. So the mood was more downbeat than the headline numbers suggested, with over two-thirds of the S&P 500 still lower on the day, and long-end bond yields creeping higher.

Before we get on to that however, the market focus today will be on the Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Warsh is speaking at 3pm London time. This is a significant one, as the speech is often used by Fed Chairs to make big announcements or send policy signals. Indeed, last year saw former Chair Powell acknowledge “the shifting balance of risks”, which set the stage for rate cuts to resume the following month. And with market pricing for the September Fed meeting still in the balance (35% chance of a hike), today's speech is particularly important.

This year, we don’t know what Warsh is going to talk about, but he said in July that he was undecided “whether it’s going to be a big-picture speech or whether it’s going to be a more traditional set up for all the action we’re going to have between September and December”. So that leaves him a few options for today. According to our US economists, they think that a “big-picture” speech could include a discussion of the Fed’s taskforces, or potentially on AI’s economic impact. Alternatively, the “more traditional” speech might see Warsh do a “cleanup” of the July press conference, and he may wish to counter one market narrative that Fed policy actions could be delayed until the task forces have completed their work. See their full preview (link here) for more details.

With all that to look forward to, we actually heard from several Fed speakers yesterday, which demonstrated the current divide on policy. Some suggested that more restrictive policy was required, including Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who voted for a hike last time. She reiterated that “I think it’s appropriate for us to put some restraint there to help bring inflation back down to target”. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a non-voter this year) said “I would probably put myself in that camp” of colleagues who dissented. But Boston Fed President Collins said that “I continue to see rates as mildly restrictive”. And Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he wanted “evidence that this inflation shock is not going to be persistent”, but he also said “I’m OK with waiting as we’re getting that.”

Against that backdrop, bond yields crept up a bit yesterday, although that had more to do with the rise in oil and gas prices than the Fed commentary. So Treasury yields saw moderate increases across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+2.2bps) up to 4.23%, the 10yr yield (+2.9bps) up to 4.68%, and the 30yr yield (+2.6bps) up to 5.19%. And similarly in Europe, the 10yr bund yield (+1.9bps) closed at 3.25%, less than a basis point beneath its post-2011 high from last week, with 10yr OAT yields (+1.5bps) and BTP yields (+2.0bps) also higher.

Yet even as the bond story was fairly consistent yesterday, equities saw an incredible divergence on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the primary driver was Nvidia’s earnings the previous day, with their share price up +8.74% in response. Indeed, it was Nvidia’s best daily performance after an earnings release since May 2024, and it makes a change from the previous 4 quarterly results, when Nvidia fell the following day. Meanwhile, the optimism around AI helped other tech stocks more broadly, with the NASDAQ up +1.57%, whilst the S&P 500 (+0.72%) closed back within 1% of its record high.

However, the strength in tech masked plenty of equity weakness elsewhere. In fact, over two-thirds of the S&P 500’s constituents fell yesterday, with every major sector group falling except information technology (+3.40%), and the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell -0.29%. Meanwhile in Europe, the story was also pretty weak thanks to the latest rise in energy prices, which raised concerns about faster inflation. So the STOXX 600 (-0.69%) saw its worst performance in a month, and there was a particular underperformance for France’s CAC 40 (-1.68%). That came as multiple French banks fell back, with BNP Paribas (-4.79%), Crédit Agricole (-3.97%) and Société Générale (-4.99%) all lower. Those declines came ahead of a French presidential debate yesterday evening that was dominated by the country’s rising public debt. 

Otherwise, the generally downbeat mood yesterday wasn’t helped by the latest rise in oil and gas prices, which added to fears about inflationary pressures. For instance, Brent crude was up +2.12% to close at $89.70/bbl, ending a run of 3 consecutive declines. That came as there were still few signs of progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a Fox News interview that “No negotiations are happening right now, and this will continue until the president feels that maybe they come to the table in a meaningful way”. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that the Trump administration told mediators it has no interest in returning to the terms of the memorandum of understanding agreed in June.

Overnight in Asia, bond yields have continued to move higher, which follows weaker demand for a 2yr auction in Japan. So this morning we’ve seen Japan’s 2yr yield (+2.0bps) rise to 1.70%, its highest since 1995. That also follows the latest Tokyo CPI print for August, but that was as expected, with headline CPI rising a tenth to +1.9%. Nevertheless, yields have also risen elsewhere, with Australia’s 10yr yield (+2.6bps) up to a post-2011 high of 5.12%, whilst the 10yr US Treasury yield is up another +0.6bps this morning to 4.68%.

Meanwhile for equities, we’ve also seen a mixed performance overnight. That includes a decent decline for the KOSPI (-1.24%), and the CSI 300 (-0.10%) has also lost ground. However, several other indices have made decent gains, including the Nikkei (+0.75%) and the Hang Seng (+0.47%), alongside a modest advance for the Shanghai Comp (+0.08%). Looking forward, US equity futures are little changed however, with those on the S&P 500 down just -0.04%.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but the US weekly initial jobless claims were better than expected, falling to just 203k in the week ending August 22 (vs. 208k expected). Otherwise, the US merchandise trade deficit widened to $118.8bn in July (vs. $100.5bn expected), which is the biggest it’s been since March 2025.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Hammack and the ECB’s Schnabel. Then on the data side, we’ll get the flash CPI prints for August from France and Spain, German unemployment for August and Canada’s Q2 GDP. And in the US, we’ll also get the MNI Chicago PMI for August, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for August.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 08:52

Federal Judge Again Blocks Trump Mail-In Voting Rules Ahead Of Midterms

Via American Greatness,

A federal judge on Thursday temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s new mail-in voting requirements, setting up another potential Supreme Court fight just days before states are expected to begin sending ballots for the November midterm elections.

U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani issued a 14-day temporary restraining order preventing enforcement of a new U.S. Postal Service rule implementing President Donald Trump’s executive order on election procedures.

The ruling comes days after the Supreme Court allowed the administration to move forward in a procedural decision. The justices did not rule on the legality of Trump’s order, instead finding that Talwani had acted before the dispute was ready for judicial review.

Democratic-led states and voting rights groups subsequently refiled their challenges after USPS finalized its rule.

Under the Postal Service requirements, states must provide certain recipient information through a USPS portal and comply with envelope and barcode standards before outbound mail ballots will be accepted.

Talwani said states would face significant logistical problems implementing the requirements with the midterms approaching.

“Plaintiff states have neither time nor funds to design new mail ballots, seek approval of the new designs, order production of mail ballots, update their own election management systems, train election officials to use the USPS portal and upload citizen data to the portal, all before the midterms,” Talwani wrote.

Nearly one-third of Americans vote by mail, making the legal dispute potentially consequential for November’s elections.

Democratic attorneys general argue that Trump and the Postal Service are improperly interfering with authority the Constitution grants primarily to states and Congress over election procedures.

USPS disputes that characterization, saying its rule does not determine voter eligibility or compare submitted information against state voter rolls. States would retain authority over who qualifies to vote by mail.

Trump’s executive order also sought additional proof of citizenship for voter registration, including documents such as a U.S. passport, certain military identification or government-issued photo identification accompanied by citizenship documentation.

The administration has argued that tighter election procedures are necessary to protect election integrity, while opponents contend the president lacks authority to impose the requirements.

Thursday’s order blocks enforcement for two weeks. A hearing is scheduled for Sept. 3, and another appeal is expected.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 08:35

Uprising In Ceuta: Locals Have Had Enough Of Migrant Invasion

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

In the complete absence of any meaningful government action, the people of Ceuta have taken matters into their own hands.

On Wednesday night, Spanish flags filled the streets of the North African enclave. Crowds chanted for deportations. Then a column of residents pushed toward El Trampolín beach, the open-air settlement that has occupied a family shoreline for nearly a month. Tents came down. Belongings went into the sea.

Police formed a line between Spaniards and the camps - and opened fire with rubber bullets on the locals.

Thousands of locals in Ceuta took to the street today to chant:

"Deport the illegal migrants"

?? pic.twitter.com/WF2pZPpMBK

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 26, 2026

That is the picture now coming out of a city of roughly 84,000 people that was flooded at the end of July by a crossing Spanish officials have put above 70,000 and, in some tallies, near 80,000.

The government spent weeks talking about "coexistence," "diversity," and "normality." Ceuta spent those same weeks living with feces in children's parks, hospital wards under strain, and a rising stack of sexual-assault files. On Wednesday, the patience snapped.

?? Ceuta residents have taken to the streets to protest the Spanish government's handling of the migration crisis and demand the removal of migrants from public areas.

Follow: @europa pic.twitter.com/QdlyKOwB4J

— Europa.com (@europa) August 27, 2026

The protest began in the late afternoon in O'Donnell, outside the old Military Hospital - one of the sites residents feared the central government wanted to turn into migrant housing.

El Mundo put more than 2,000 people at the Government Delegation. Other Spanish outlets described a larger march through the centre, Spanish and Ceuta flags everywhere, slogans hammered out for hours: "Ceuta no se vende, Ceuta se defiende." "Un caballa nunca se rinde." "Invasores expulsión." "Ceuta no es un CETI."

They demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and of the government delegate in the city, Miguel Ángel Pérez Triano.

?BREAKING: Hundreds of patriots in Ceuta have STORMED the beaches on which the invaders have been camping on and are tearing down tents

All of Europe supports them. ?? pic.twitter.com/q6qBxMqzdm

— Inevitable West (@Inevitablewest) August 26, 2026

When night fell, a few hundred broke toward El Trampolín. El Español reported residents ripping down tents, throwing camp gear into the water, and trying to drive the remaining occupants off "our beach."

BREAKING:

The Spanish police have opened fire on crowds in Ceuta tonight. They are shooting rubber bullets.

They are shooting at Spaniards protesting against illegal migration. They didn't fire rubber bullets at the 70 000 illegal migrants when they stormed Ceuta in July. pic.twitter.com/hF82rJJdSd

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 26, 2026

Police blocked the main part of the beach. Deterrent rounds followed. Yes, really. They fired rubber bullets at Spaniards protesting illegal settlement; but there was no such volley when tens of thousands illegally stormed the border in July.

? #URGENTE | Los ceutíes revientan los asentamientos ilegales de los invasores y les echan de la playa.

Honor al pueblo de Ceuta, que está partiéndose los cojones frente a la inacción de todo el Estado. pic.twitter.com/YNkVKxiJkQ

— Vito Quiles ?? (@vitoquiles) August 26, 2026

Spanish journalist Vito Quiles remarked on Ceutíes bursting the illegal beach settlements while the Spanish state stood still. "Honor al pueblo de Ceuta," he wrote - honour to a city doing the job the ministries would not.

Further footage captured groups of local men moving through the dark after the official march had broken up, describing armed residents hunting those they call invaders. After four weeks of official paralysis in the city, locals took matters into their own hands.

This is footage of armed Ceuta locals hunting down invading barbarians tonight.

It looks like an uprising has started. pic.twitter.com/CsVel0I3Zn

— Inevitable West (@Inevitablewest) August 26, 2026

One chant captured on the sand, reported by El Mundo, summarised the feeling among residents; "Si no se quieren ir, los echaremos nosotros." If they will not leave, we will throw them out.

They also chanted "Aquí hay más policía que el día del salto," there are more police than on the day of the mass jump.

Officers who had been unable or unwilling to keep the shoreline clear of shacks suddenly had the numbers to stop Spaniards from finishing the clearance themselves.

A left-wing government that spent a month insisting the situation was under control found the will to fire on its own citizens the moment those citizens tried to recover a public beach.

By Thursday morning the temperature had risen again. AFP reported that a military vehicle with four soldiers was ambushed in the early hours by a crowd of around 70 migrants throwing stones and other objects.

?? Four Spanish soldiers were injured in Ceuta after about 40 illegal African migrants attacked their unarmored army jeep with stones.

The soldiers were forced to abandon the vehicle and flee on foot while being pursued and struck. The injured soldiers received medical... pic.twitter.com/C6hYJ3T53B

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 27, 2026

The soldiers fled and called for police. Twelve Moroccan men were detained. One soldier was slightly injured. Kissy Chandiramani, Ceuta's finance councillor, stated: "The tension in the city of Ceuta is very high" because there is "no response" from the government and "we feel abandoned."

Remaining migrant shanty camps on the beach were set alight and destroyed.

? Se han vivido momentos de verdadera tensión en la playa de Benítez, se ha prendido fuego en el asentamiento de inmigrantes.#Ceuta #Inmigración #FronteraSur pic.twitter.com/jQx3OS4mU5

— El Faro de Ceuta (@ElFarodeCeuta) August 27, 2026

Ya se colmó la gota que llenó el vaso.

Los ceutíes se toman la acción por sus propias manos y destrozan el campamento de ilegales en la playa de el Trampolín.

Todo mi apoyo a los valientes y a todo el pueblo ceutí frente al abandono.

Echadlos ya como podáis....

— Javier Negre (@javiernegre10) August 27, 2026

City hall, aid groups counting food rations, and anyone with eyes on Trampolín, Benítez, the hills and the warehouse district nite that thousands of migrants remain.

We've seen Mother weeping on live television. One said her 16-year-old "has to go everywhere with her father or with me because the migrants devour her. I can't take it anymore. I want them all gone," Adding that "What's stayed here is the worst of it; there are murderers, rapists, thieves."

Sisters Yoli and María José pulled their daughters out of the city. "We feel humiliated, trampled," Yoli told Cuatro. "I have had to take my daughters out of their house because the Government does nothing, because Mr. Pedro Sánchez is on vacation in La Mareta. Nobody cares about us."

Beaches that used to hold families became camps of reed huts, plastic, rotting food, urine and human waste. Children's parks were left smeared in shit.

Hospitals opened emergency capacity. Doctors speak of scabies, tuberculosis, impetigo and a "health catastrophe."

A BBVA branch closed after a security guard was beaten trying to stop a robbery of an elderly woman. Women described needing escorts to their own front doors.

This was the "example of coexistence" Inclusion Minister Elma Saiz chose to praise from a distance. "Ceuta is a true example of coexistence," she said. "A city in which different cultures, traditions, and faiths coexist. And which has demonstrated over decades that it is one of its greatest strengths." Diversity, she added, is "our greatest strength." The parks full of excrement did not make the speech.

Police unions have described girls and women glued to police vans near the CETI because the moment they step away they are raped. There are accounts of daily assaults, of victims too frightened to report, of attacks moving into the hills where patrols cannot easily follow.

Reports also describe "many dead cats, cut," some missing half a body or pierced, plus half-eaten pigeons and seagulls in the areas where migrants are camping.

Theo latest footage confirms that so called progressive NGO workers are still operating in the city, even handing pepper spray to illegal migrants during Wednesday's clashes - kit for use against the local Spaniards coming down to the beach.

Progressive NGOs are out on the streets of Ceuta tonight handing out pepper spray to illegal migrants so that they can use the pepper spray against local Spaniards in tonight's clashes

?? pic.twitter.com/zWytPqsFc4

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 26, 2026

Another clip shows Gaza Barbie, a leftist agitator, joining migrant groups to chant "Free Palestine".

While terrified mothers are trying to get these men kicked out of Ceuta

This liberal woman chants "Free Palestine" with them

Some people just cannot be saved pic.twitter.com/SmA8W1gdzi

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) August 27, 2026

This woman has spent the entirety of August filming herself fleetingly appearing near migrant groups, insisting the streets are safe and dismissing frightened neighbours as xenophobes.

Meanwhile, Spanish television new captured a Moroccan invader explaining that Spanish girls being raped should surprise no one, because they walk alone, and that the fault lies with parents who do not keep them at home.

This moroccan animal here saying on Spanish TV that it is obvious that Spanish girls are being raped, because they walk alone. And that it is the fault of their parents for not keeping them at home.
Islam is a dangerous thing.
And we need to fight it pic.twitter.com/VEh9eheFft

— Jose Muniz (@joseletemuniz) August 27, 2026

On Thursday, residents blocked a Red Cross food convoy headed for the beach camps, forcing them to eventually leave.

Spaniards blocking the red cross from entering Ceuta to aid the invaders.

pic.twitter.com/NJ2KUmuXUp

— Tommy Robinson ?? (@TRobinsonNewEra) August 27, 2026

?BREAKING: After intense pressure from local residents the Red Cross has been forced to leave Ceuta

They will not be giving aid to illegal migrant any more pic.twitter.com/HSRhFMbbg0

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) August 27, 2026

Locals want the illegal camps gone. They want deportations of those with no asylum claim. They want their daughters able to walk without a male escort. They want parks that are not toilets.

They want a government that treats a Spanish city as Spanish territory rather than a holding pen for rapists, murderers and other criminals.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 08:15

Gap Soars On Old Navy CEO Shake-Up As Jefferies Sees "New Catalyst" For Stock

Shares of major U.S. clothing retailer Gap, whose brands include Old Navy, Banana Republic and others, jumped the most in 16 months in premarket trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected profit and upgraded its earnings outlook. The company also named retail veteran Michael Francis as Old Navy's next CEO.

Francis spent 26 years at Target, where he helped engineer the retailer's "cheap chic" strategy, before advising Walmart on its marketing operations. He joined Old Navy in March as chief customer officer.

The leadership shake-up comes after Old Navy's comparable sales fell 4% last quarter, twice the 2% decline expected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg. Gap CEO Richard Dickson blamed mispriced and poorly curated assortments of dresses, shorts and swimwear, along with marketing that failed to generate store traffic.

"What we did not anticipate was the degree to which our marketing would fall short in driving traffic," Dickson told analysts. "We are not satisfied with this result."

Gap lowered the upper end of its 2026 net-sales outlook and reduced its forecast for Old Navy's comparable sales. However, the retailer raised its full-year earnings-per-share guidance after higher prices at Gap and Banana Republic, along with improved operating efficiency, supported margins.

Shares jumped as much as 15% in premarket trading following the earnings and leadership announcements. If the gains hold through today's cash session, it would mark the stock's biggest intraday advance since April 2, 2025.

Shares have traded within a tight range since the end of 2023, bouncing between support near $20 and resistance near $30. Since the Dot-Com era of 2000, the stock has largely traded sideways.

Short interest in the stock stands at around 12.6%, equivalent to roughly 29.9 million shares sold short. Days to cover stands at around 5.7.

Bloomberg data show eight "Buy" ratings, 12 "Neutral" ratings, and zero "Sell" ratings. The average 12-month Wall Street price target is around $27.

Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe offered his initial take on the earnings:

Gap Brand Keeps Winning; Old Navy Missed But Improvements Underway

GAP delivered a mixed Q2, with profit ahead of cons despite weaker-than-expected sales. Gap brand continued to significantly outperform (+10% comp), while Old Navy's -4% comp reflected assortment and marketing missteps that mgmt believes are largely behind it. Encouraging August trends, raised FY26 EPS guidance ($2.35-$2.45), incremental tariff relief, and an upcoming Old Navy leadership transition could support a stronger 2H outlook. Raising PT to $24.

What We DID LIKE in the Quarter

1) Gap Brand Momentum Remains Exceptional. Gap delivered comp growth of +10%, marking its 11th consecutive quarter of positive comps. Strength remained broad-based across departments, while customer acquisition, market share gains, and lower discounting highlight the durability of the reinvigoration strategy.

2) Profitability Outperformed. Despite top-line pressure from ON, adj. GM expanded 20bps to 41.4%, while merch margin increased 80bps on stronger pricing, lower discounting, and tariff mitigation efforts. Adj. OM of 7.1% exceeded expectations, demonstrating continued cost discipline.

What We DIDN'T LIKE in the Quarter

1) Old Navy Stumbled and Athleta Remains a Drag. Old Navy (ON) comps declined 4%, driven by weakness in women's seasonal categories and softer traffic. Mgmt acknowledged issues around assortment, pricing, and marketing execution, prompting a reduction in FY26 comp expectations to flat to down 1%. Athleta comps fell 12% as management maintained a cautious inventory posture while continuing its turnaround efforts. While profitability and inventory productivity improved, meaningful sales recovery remains elusive.

What We See Ahead

1) Old Navy Recovery Is the Key Debate. Mgmt cited improving August trends as seasonal product headwinds faded and new fall marketing gained traction. Strength in denim, active, sweaters, and knits, alongside initiatives such as Sport, Beauty, and Fanatics, should support sequential improvement in 2H. The announcement of Michael Francis as Old Navy's next president and CEO also introduces a new catalyst to help accelerate improvements at the company's largest brand.

2) Raising the Earnings Outlook. Mgmt raised FY26 adj. OM guidance to 7.4%-7.6% and EPS guidance to $2.35-$2.45. Incremental tariff relief, continued AUR growth, cost savings, and buybacks should support earnings growth through year-end.

3) New Growth Vehicles Emerging. Mgmt continues to invest in beauty and accessories, including the nationwide launch of Old Navy Beauty, Gap's fragrance relaunch, and a new accessories platform. While the near-term financial contribution should be limited, these initiatives could provide incremental opportunities for traffic, engagement, and margin over time.

Details From the Call and Callback

Mgmt repeatedly emphasized ON improvement and stronger August trends as key underpinnings of its outlook and confidence.

CNBC quoted incoming Old Navy CEO Francis as saying the brand would "continue to sharpen our customer focus, strengthen the brand's cultural relevance, enhance the customer experience across every touchpoint and build on the momentum already underway."

Now it is Francis' turn to prove he can bring cash-strapped shoppers back to Gap's largest brand.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 08:05

PayPal Crashes After Advent, Stripe Abandon $50 Billion Takeover Bid

PayPal shares plunged as much as 16% in premarket trading Friday, the most in months if the losses hold through the cash session, after a consortium led by private-equity firm Advent International and payments giant Stripe abandoned its takeover bid for the struggling payment processor.

Bloomberg reports that the consortium offered more than $50 billion for PayPal in what would have been one of the largest leveraged buyouts in history.

As per the report:

The group is no longer pursuing a deal for PayPal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. It had previously offered more than $50 billion for the company, people with knowledge of the matter have said.

PayPal reportedly rejected the $50 billion offer, betting that Advent and Stripe would return to the negotiating table with a higher price. Instead, the consortium walked away. 

Takeover interest in PayPal first came to light in a February Bloomberg article, which reported that Stripe was considering acquiring all or part of PayPal. Reuters then reported on July 15 that an offer had been made, helping to catapult the stock up roughly 30% (as of Thursday's close). 

News this morning that the consortium has walked away sent shares crashing as much as 16%, threatening to wipe out much of the stock's gains over the past month and a half.

Meanwhile, PayPal is in the middle of a turnaround strategy and has brought in the former CEO of HP. The stock is trading at 2018 levels.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 07:45

Britain's Biggest Council Pushes Two-Year Jail Term For Flying National Flags

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Britain's largest local authority has gone to the High Court to stop people hanging the Union Flag and the St George's Cross from lampposts, with campaigners warning that a breach could mean up to two years behind bars.

Birmingham City Council filed the application this week as the latest move in a year-long war on "unauthorised attachments." The attachments in question are the flags of the country. The penalties being threatened include prison, unlimited fines, and seized assets.

Protesters who fly the Union Jack from lampposts could criminal proceedings if the injunction is granted.

BREAKING: Protesters who fly the Union Jack from lampposts could face two years in jail after Birmingham Council applied for an injunction. @PeterBleksley: "It's absolutely scandalous!"@TVKev pic.twitter.com/XExfsblLcR

— Talk (@TalkTV) August 26, 2026

Former Metropolitan Police detective Peter Bleksley called it what it is. "It's absolutely scandalous!"

The Free Speech Union described the move as "truly mental."

This is truly mental.

Birmingham City Council has applied for an injunction that could result in people who fly the Union Jack from lampposts being jailed for up to two years.

Threatening people with prison for displaying their national flag is a direct assault on freedom of... https://t.co/5kJdBCU1gv

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) August 26, 2026

A year ago the same city was already ripping the colours down and calling it safety. Residents put them back up. The council has now decided a High Court order is the way to finish the job.

On 26 August the council announced it had submitted an injunction application "as part of our ongoing work to prohibit unauthorised attachments on the highway, including flags and banners."

Green councillor Jane Baston, cabinet member for equalities, communities and social justice, said: "The Council is taking a lawful, proportionate and evidence-led approach to unauthorised attachments on the highway. This includes pursuing injunctive action based on the evidence gathered to date."

She added: "Our priority is to protect public safety, staff and contractor welfare, community cohesion and the responsible use of public funds. We ask residents and community groups to support this approach and to ensure any displays are placed only where permission exists."

The authority insists the action "is not directed at any particular community, belief or viewpoint." It says the installation and reinstallation of flags has had an impact on the public, and that officers have "witnessed incidents that have involved harassment, intimidation or obstruction during removal activity."

The named targets give the game away. The application lists Raise the Colours co-founder Ryan Bridge, plus others associated with the campaign. Raise the Colours said it had not received or reviewed the papers and could not comment on the application. The group rejected "any suggestion that we are seeking to divide communities," and describes itself as a "grassroots movement for unity and patriotism."

The nationwide campaign by the group to put the England flag back on the street is widely reported to have started in Birmingham last summer. The council spent the following year treating that campaign as a highways nuisance. Now it wants a judge to make the nuisance a city-wide prohibition.

Anti-flag campaigners in the city have been lobbying for exactly this. Brummies United Against Racism and Hate Crime applauded the legal bid, spoke of "thuggish behaviour," and framed the flags as an attempt to "harass and intimidate residents of our proudly multicultural city."

So the national flag is an attachment. Opposition to it is cohesion. And a bankrupt council that spent more than a year failing to collect the bins has found the money and the energy to take patriotism to the Royal Courts of Justice.

Birmingham is taking a page from the book of Liberal Democrat-run Oxfordshire County Council, who won the first injunction of its kind, barring unidentified people from attaching England or Union flags to highway structures or painting flag imagery on roads.

Council leader Tim Bearder celebrated. "This is a welcome judgement. We're very pleased with the result," he said, adding: "This sets a legal precedent and will hopefully deter people in not just Oxfordshire but around the country from partaking in this criminal activity."

He described those putting the flags up as "very challenging people, not patriots."

Oxfordshire spent about £80,000 taking flags down and another £40,000 on lawyers, costs it said it intended to recover. Staff removing flags were said to have faced hostility so serious that some were told to wear face coverings and check vehicles for tracking devices after a worker's home address was published.

The judge said maintenance teams had been "working in fear," that people directed by the council had been obstructed "to the extent that at times they have simply given up on the removal," and that there was "little prospect absent an injunction that it will stop."

The order does not stop flags on private property. Oxfordshire still flies the Union Flag and the St George's Cross at County Hall. Bearder has repeated that the case "is not, and never has been, about the flag," and that Raise the Colours' conduct was "nothing to do with national pride or with support for the England team during the World Cup."

If it was never about the flag, the council would not have needed a High Court order aimed at the flag. If it was never about patriotism, Bearder would not have needed to announce that the people doing it were "not patriots."

Long before any judge got involved, town halls were already spending public money to erase the colours from the street.

Freedom of Information requests to hundreds of local authorities showed councils had spent at least £70,000 removing Union Jacks and St George's Crosses from lampposts and street fixtures. The true figure was higher. Many authorities folded the work into existing budgets and reported nothing.

Medway Council alone spent close to £11,600 taking down more than 700 flags. Labour councillor Alex Paterson, who oversaw community safety there, called it "money well spent" to combat "far-right agitators" and to "make the community feel safe again."

He told the BBC: "I think at this stage the world is divided into people who know exactly why these flags were put up and those who are still pretending they don't know why they were put up."

Left-wing activist Pablo O'Hana, who sent some of the FoI requests, was filmed pulling flags off a Manchester bridge. He told the man who had put them up that he took them down because "that's not what our country is."

That is the official mind in a sentence. The country is not allowed to look like the country.

The same pattern produced a small masterpiece of modern administration in Essex. Staff were offered emotional support if they felt "discomforted" by the national flag on road signs, bridges and trees.

An internal note said: "While these symbols may hold different meanings for different people, we recognise that for many - particularly our colleagues of colour - they can evoke feelings of discomfort and be associated with anti-immigration rhetoric."

Senior leaders invited anyone "feeling unsettled or affected by what you're seeing" to speak to managers, "Global Majority Leads," an assistant director or the director. The Union Flag and the St George's Cross still flew outside headquarters. The problem was not the flag on the civic pole. The problem was the flag in the community.

Nigel Farage, as an Essex MP, called the council "totally out of touch with the county." Lord Maurice Glasman put the priority list in one line: "You get mugged and your bag nicked and that's nothing to do with them, but you put a flag up and it's suddenly an issue." Former Attorney General Sir Michael Ellis said: "This is two-tier. The council won't fix a pothole but worry about this."

Local jobsworths did not invent the idea that the Union Flag is a social hazard. A leaked draft of the government's "social cohesion" strategy did the theological work for them.

The document claimed national symbols were sometimes used to "exclude or intimidate," and that the "extreme right has tried to turn symbols of pride into tools of hate." Flying the English, Scottish and Union flags was folded into a story of hate rather than belonging.

The 47-page draft, Protecting What Matters, leaked to The Spectator, sketched hundreds of millions of pounds for areas where cohesion was "under pressure," a special representative to tackle hostility directed at Muslims, and a new definition of Islamophobia.

Reform UK's Richard Tice's verdict on the flag passage was blunt: "Absurdly, this says our national flag is a tool of hate used to intimidate. The whole paper is a divisive nonsense that should be consigned to the bin."

A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said only: "We do not comment on leaks."

There is a word for the official twitch. Vexillophobia: fear of the flag. Not a clinical diagnosis. A political allergy. A country that treats the St George's Cross or the Union flag as an act of aggression while other political colours are treated as inclusion.

The same institutions had no comparable panic when other flags owned the street. Palestinian colours hung from Birmingham lampposts for months. A leaked 2025 email from cabinet member Majid Mahmood, reported by the Mail, said of those Palestine flags: "We are taking these down, but we need the support of the police due to issues that have cropped (up) when we first tried to take them down."

Conservative opposition leader Cllr Robert Alden called the contrast "completely disgraceful," adding "Frankly, for the last two years, the council has made little effort to remove Palestine flags and now, suddenly, residents are putting up the Union Jack and St George's Cross and they're saying it's a health and safety risk - it's madness."

Robert Jenrick called it "blatant two-tier bias against the British people."

The World Cup made the double standard impossible to miss. Councils warned that English flags might upset "community cohesion." Bristol talked about remaining "welcoming, respectful and safe for everyone during the tournament." English people, in England, were told to mute their own colours in case someone else took offence.

Other authorities joined the queue. Portsmouth, Cheshire, Bristol, Oxford: flags painted off roundabouts, taken off street furniture, treated as a fire risk or an inclusivity problem, while other political symbols stayed put.

Raise the Colours did not come out of a vacuum. It followed years of mass immigration, grooming scandals, and taxpayer-funded hotels for people who arrived illegally. The official response was not to fix the conditions that produced the flags. It was to pathologise the flags.

Section 132 of the Highways Act already lets a council cut an unauthorised sign off a lamp column. What Oxfordshire wanted, and what Birmingham now wants, is something sharper: a civil injunction against the entire country, enforced by contempt of court.

An authority that needs a High Court order to keep the national flag off a lamppost is one whose officials are more frightened of displays of national pride than of the declining conditions that produced the trend in the first place.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 07:20

New Jersey Has America's Highest Lifetime Taxes: $1.36 Million

How much money do you have to pay in taxes over a lifetime?

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, maps the estimated lifetime tax bill for a single filer in every U.S. state, including federal and state income taxes, as well as sales, property, and vehicle taxes.

The data for this visualization comes from Self Financial, with estimates as of June 2026.

The analysis assumes a 45-year working life with constant earnings and tax rates, a life expectancy of 79.6 years, homeownership beginning at age 40, and ownership of five vehicles over a lifetime.

New Jersey Tops the Ranking

New Jersey has the highest estimated lifetime tax bill in the country at $1.36 million.

Rank State Lifetime taxes per person 1 New Jersey $1,359,406 2 Massachusetts $1,297,130 3 Connecticut $1,249,749 4 New Hampshire $1,125,478 5 New York $1,084,561 6 California $1,075,061 7 Maryland $1,060,255 8 Illinois $1,033,447 9 Minnesota $1,018,872 10 Rhode Island $999,704 11 Vermont $953,322 12 Virginia $911,706 13 Wisconsin $851,139 14 Colorado $839,899 15 Pennsylvania $835,067 16 Washington $816,217 17 Oregon $775,976 18 Nebraska $761,072 19 Maine $758,818 20 Michigan $753,076 21 Delaware $731,824 22 Iowa $730,349 23 Kansas $711,966 24 Utah $709,803 25 Alaska $702,376 26 Arizona $698,824 27 Hawaii $684,028 28 Montana $669,934 29 Missouri $665,381 30 Georgia $655,532 31 Indiana $643,299 32 Tennessee $632,562 33 South Carolina $626,485 34 North Dakota $626,340 35 Idaho $621,705 36 Texas $615,932 37 New Mexico $605,411 38 West Virginia $593,639 39 North Carolina $591,911 40 Alabama $591,168 41 Kentucky $588,953 42 Louisiana $575,122 43 Ohio $569,376 44 Mississippi $560,448 45 Wyoming $546,617 46 Nevada $535,652 47 Oklahoma $526,333 48 Arkansas $517,942 49 South Dakota $515,732 50 Florida $508,980

Massachusetts follows at nearly $1.30 million, while Connecticut ranks third at $1.25 million. New Hampshire and New York round out the top five, highlighting the Northeast’s strong presence near the top of the ranking.

Florida Has the Lowest Lifetime Tax Bill

At the other end of the ranking, Florida has the lowest estimated lifetime tax bill at $508,980.

Florida’s lower total is helped by the absence of a state individual income tax, reducing the tax burden that residents pay on their earnings over time.

South Dakota is next at $515,732, followed by Arkansas at $517,942 and Oklahoma at $526,333. Together, the four lowest-ranked states have estimated lifetime tax bills ranging from about $509,000 to $526,000.

States in the Middle of the Pack

Several large states fall closer to the middle of the ranking. Texas has an estimated lifetime tax bill of $615,932, while Georgia comes in at $655,532 and Arizona at $698,824. Pennsylvania ranks higher at $835,067, putting it well above these states but still below the million-dollar mark.

Having no state individual income tax does not necessarily translate into a low overall lifetime tax bill. Washington, for example, ranks 16th at $816,217, above many states that levy an individual income tax. The estimates also account for federal income, property, sales, and vehicle taxes.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: U.S. States With the Widest Wage Gaps on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 06:55

WHO's High-Price Pandemic Plan

Authored by David Bell and Ramesh Thakur via Brownstone Institute,

The recent release of Anthony Fauci's diaries, followed by his refusal to answer questions in an appearance before a US Senate committee by invoking the Fifth Amendment protection against self-incrimination 111 times, highlighted a stark divide in how the Covid pandemic was handled by public health authorities. This is as true of Australia as of the US.

Repeatedly, against certainty expressed in public to justify official statements on the origins of the virus and on lockdown, mask, and vaccine policies, their private contemporaneous conversations confirm that even the top scientists were making decisions based on scientific uncertainty.

Consequently, one of the key legacies of the public-private gap is growing distrust of official claims. That scepticism should extend to the future pandemic agenda. We rely on the World Health Organisation to coordinate among countries to prevent scourges such as pandemics reaching our shores, or at least mitigate their effects. In doing so, we must defer to an army of international bureaucrats who work in such institutions. A deference that relies on trust.

Their salaries and careers depend on convincing us to part with more of our money to support their work. Yet, according to a new article on international pandemic financing in the Cambridge journal Health Economics, Policy and Law, the WHO and World Bank rely on dubious assumptions to calculate the return on investment case on which all major international efforts to mitigate future pandemics rely.

This should alarm governments. Mitigation is worth investing in, as pandemics will occur from time to time. But the article shows that current investments will have an overall detrimental effect on global health. Most starkly, it suggests a deep rot in the quality of institutions we rely on as stewards of this commonly accepted global good.

The WHO and World Bank report, produced at the request of the G20 in 2022, proposes an annual $31.1 billion budget for pandemic preparedness and prevention, about $10.5 billion of which would come through foreign aid (including Australia). About $26 billion would come from low and middle-income countries already struggling with economic issues including burgeoning Covid debt. For context, the entire WHO budget for 2024-25 was just $3.8 billion a year.

The point of the WHO and World Bank's argument is that if we spend such resources on preparing for pandemics, we will reap orders of magnitude greater return on investment down the road, more than a thousandfold in some wealthy countries - a bargain difficult to refuse if true.

The article from Leeds University shows that the financial arguments are based on smoke and mirrors. They rely on assumptions on the quality-adjusted life years lost to pandemics as against the big three global infectious diseases of HIV-AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria; on the share of global funds to be devoted to pandemics in comparison to the other three per life saved in each case; and on the benefits to be gained from investments in vaccines and other pharmaceutical products instead of in the more basic determinants of health resilience in the population such as nutrition, sanitation, water, and hygiene. These are the factors, along with antibiotics and gains in medical advances, that have reduced the mortality toll from pandemics since the Spanish flu of 1918.

Furthermore, the WHO and World Bank also discount the adjustments made to human behaviour to mitigate health risks as they become obvious, collateral costs of the pandemic response measures, and the likely benefits of investing in those measures.

This matters because our government has signed on to the amended International Health Regulations, is expecting to sign the proposed WHO Pandemic Agreement, and looks set to sign a UN political agreement this September advocating for yet more money for the authors and beneficiaries of the growing pandemic industry. They are promising a lot of money based on the WHO's costings.

It matters because most Australians assumed that we could trust international institutions and that they valued rigour rather than engage in false accounting and subterfuge.

Unfortunately, incentives without accountability are a poor basis for health governance. It matters because funds to finance the pharmaceutical corporations, research institutions, and bureaucrats who stand to benefit from the pandemic agenda will have to be diverted from programs that work. International funding for the big endemic diseases and basic priorities such as nutrition is already falling, while the pandemic agenda expands. The Leeds authors call for simple transparency and honesty in assessing global health priorities, and in paying for them. Not a big ask. The Australian government has a choice to be constructive on behalf of its taxpayers and require better, or through blind acquiescence remain part of the problem.

Republished from The Australian

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 06:30

Turkey Recruits Trump Insiders For New Washington Lobbying Push

Via Middle East Eye

The Turkish government hired a lobbying firm with close ties to US President Donald Trump earlier this month under a year-long contract worth $2.4m, according to US Justice Department filings reviewed by Middle East Eye.

Ballard Partners, led by Brian Ballard, a prominent Florida Republican fundraiser who also worked on Trump’s presidential campaign, signed the agreement with Turkey’s Ministry of National Defense on August 8. The firm will receive $200,000 per month.

via AFP

Under the contract, Ballard Partners pledged to provide “government relations services, strategic consulting and advocacy services” before the federal government, and keep its client informed about developments in Congress and US policy.

This is not the first time Ballard Partners has worked for Turkey.

In 2017, during Trump’s first term, Turkey hired the firm under a $1.5m contract. It was one of Ballard Partners’ first major deals in Washington after opening an office there.

At the time, the firm reportedly focused on the sanctions-evasion case against Turkish state-owned lender Halkbank. The Trump administration’s Justice Department dropped the charges against the bank earlier this year.

The new contract differs from the previous agreement because Turkey’s defense ministry is the principal client. Ankara is seeking to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program after being removed in 2019 over its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system.

Middle East Eye reported last month that Ankara was considering selling the S-400 system to a third country, potentially the United Arab Emirates, in an effort to persuade Washington to lift sanctions against Turkey.

Ankara also hopes to take delivery of six F-35s that were manufactured for Turkey but have remained in storage in the US for years.

According to the Justice Department filings, the Ballard Partners team working for Turkey includes former Democratic congressman Robert Wexler of Florida, a prominent pro-Turkish voice who co-founded the Congressional Caucus on US-Turkey Relations and Turkish Americans in 2001.

Wexler is also president of the S Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace in Washington and is known for his connections to pro-Israel circles.

Another member of the team is Thomas Boodry, who served as a special assistant to Trump and senior director for legislative affairs at the National Security Council until April 2025. Boodry was dismissed amid the removal of former US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.

Reports at the time suggested that Trump fired Boodry and five other officials shortly after meeting far-right activist Laura Loomer, who presented opposition research on several staff members and argued that they were disloyal to the president.

REPORTER: "Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes sending the F-35s to Turkey..."

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Nobody tells me what we should be selling or not. Turkey has been a tremendous ally." pic.twitter.com/F0sdwvIYfE

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 27, 2026

The team also includes Syl Lukis, a senior partner at Ballard Partners and one of Ballard’s closest associates.

Bloomberg reported earlier this year that Ballard Partners’ alums include White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and former Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The firm generated more than $30m in federal lobbying revenue during the first quarter of 2026, more than any other firm on Washington’s K Street.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 03:30