Nearly 20,000 Americans Have Safely Returned Home From The Mid-East: State Dept

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Nearly 20,000 U.S. citizens have returned safely from the Middle East since Feb. 28, when the Iran conflict broke out, Dylan Johnson, assistant secretary at the Bureau of Global Public Affairs, said in a March 5 statement.

Smoke rises from a reported Iranian strike in the industrial district of Doha, Qatar, on March 1, 2026. Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images

“These figures do not include the many Americans who have safely relocated to other countries or those who have departed the Middle East but are still in transit back to the United States,” Johnson said. “At the direction of Secretary [Marco] Rubio, Department of State charter flight and ground transportation operations are underway and will continue to ramp up with additional flights and ground transports taking place today.”

“Through the State Department’s 24/7 Task Force, we have assisted over 10,000 Americans abroad, including offering security guidance and travel assistance. The State Department will continue to actively assist any American citizen abroad, who wishes to depart the Middle East, to do so.”

Johnson highlighted that the department has set up an online Crisis Intake form for Americans residing in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

U.S. citizens completing the form will receive information about upcoming ground transportation and charter aviation options. Americans in the Middle East can contact the State Department at +1-202-501-4444 for assistance.

In a March 5 post on X, the State Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs said that in the UAE, limited commercial flights are currently operating out of international airports in the country.

“Passengers are advised not to travel to the airport unless they hold a confirmed ticket and have been explicitly advised by their airline to do so. There are overland routes to Oman and Saudi Arabia where commercial options to depart the region are operating, but there are reports of congestion,” the bureau said.

In Qatar, the airspace and maritime routes remain closed, but the Salwa land border crossing into Saudi Arabia is currently open, the bureau said.

In Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, the Ben Gurion Airport was scheduled to reopen on March 5 for limited inbound flights, according to a post on X by the agency.

However, “we have no information yet on when outbound flights may become available,” it said. “There are overland routes to Taba, Egypt, where commercial options to depart the region are operating. Americans should strongly consider departing on one of these overland routes if they believe it is safe to do so.”

Americans in Oman should consider leaving as some flights are departing from the nation’s international airports, the bureau said.

According to data from aviation analytics company Cirium, almost 25,000 of the approximately 44,000 flights scheduled to fly in and out of the Middle East between Saturday and Thursday have been canceled.

Firepower to ‘Surge Dramatically’

The Iran conflict, now in its sixth day on Thursday, began after U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Tehran on Feb. 28.

Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said Thursday that strikes on the Iranian Navy have “intensified.”

U.S. forces have, to date, sunk more than 30 of Iran’s ships, including “an Iranian drone carrier ship roughly the size of a World War II aircraft carrier,” Cooper said.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said Thursday that firepower over Iran was about to “surge dramatically.”

“When we say more to come, it’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities,” Hegseth said. “And it’s more bomber pulses more frequently.”

In an update on the war, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Israeli army’s chief of the General Staff, said 60 percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been taken out, with 40 percent remaining intact. In addition, 80 percent of Tehran’s air defenses have also been neutralized.

“The threat has not yet been removed. Every missile is lethal and poses a danger,” Zamir said. “We are now moving to the next phase of the operation. In this phase, we will further dismantle the regime and its military capabilities. We have additional surprises ahead that I do not intend to disclose.”

On Thursday, a war powers resolution against Operation Epic Fury failed to pass the House by a vote of 212-219. The resolution aimed to impose guardrails on the United States’ ongoing military operations in Iran. On March 4, the measure failed to pass in the Senate.

After the House vote, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), speaker of the House, said the United States was conducting a “limited operation” in Iran that is “limited in scope and duration.”

“We are not at war. We have no intention of being at war,” Johnson said, adding that the U.S. mission against Iran was “nearly accomplished.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 14:40

ASP Isotopes Signs MOU With Major Nuclear Operator

ASP Isotopes announced Thursday that its Quantum Leap Energy (QLE) subsidiary has entered “a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a large publicly traded U.S. energy company that operates nuclear power stations”.

Under the agreement, the utility will evaluate options to provide support and potential financing for QLE’s planned U.S. facilities focused on High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU), LEU+, uranium conversion and deconversion services. Discussions could also lead to long-term enriched uranium supply contracts, according to the press release. QLE’s CEO described the move as an important validation of the need for reliable domestic fuel sources ahead of the 2028 Russian uranium import ban.

We’ve been tracking ASPI’s growth closely. We spotlighted them as “The Next Nuclear Story Stock” last year after their Silicon-28 supply deal and U.S. radiopharmacy acquisition. November brought news of the QLE private placement backed by investors linked to Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump. December even covered the regulatory green light for the Renergen acquisition in South Africa. We’ve also detailed the looming HALEU crunch and the 2028 ban in recent fuel-chain reports.

ASP Isotopes Jumps After Investment By Trump's Boys https://t.co/RJkYtG3MD1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 7, 2025

QLE’s Texas footprint keeps expanding. The company established their global headquarters in Austin, advanced its joint-venture plans with Fermi America (co-founded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry) for a HALEU research and production site at the 11 GW HyperGrid campus near Pantex, and continues working with TerraPower and South Africa’s NESCA. With a former Constellation Energy executive on the board (Ralph Hunter) and Vistra already scaling its Texas nuclear fleet for AI power demand, it's worth speculating that this partnership is in coordination with CEG or VST. 

We also just covered TerraPower receiving the first NRC construction permit for a commercial-scale advanced reactor in nearly a decade. The company also signed a major agreement with Meta in January for up to eight Natrium units. These milestones directly relate to QLE’s position through their 2025 agreements, under which TerraPower is providing financing for QLE’s planned HALEU enrichment facility in South Africa and committing to long-term offtake.

Despite the growing list of partnerships, QLE has yet to enrich any uranium or break ground on any facilities for research or commercial development in the US. The pieces are falling into place for a domestic nuclear fuel renaissance, but the sector still needs actual production, not just paper commitments.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 14:20

Did Trump Force China's Hand? Beijing Nears 500-Jet Boeing Deal Ahead Of Xi Summit

Boeing shares moved higher in late-afternoon trading in New York after Bloomberg News reported that the planemaker may be nearing one of the largest sales in its history, potentially to be unveiled during President Trump's trip to China later this month.

People familiar with the potential Boeing-China jet deal said it could be announced during President Trump's trip to Beijing from March 31 to April 2. They said the deal includes a 500-plane order for 737 Max jets, with additional talks covering approximately 100 widebody aircraft, including 787 Dreamliners and 777Xs.

Boeing aircraft have long been at the center of US-China trade talks, as well as tit-for-tat trade disputes. If the deal materializes, it would mark one of Boeing's biggest sales ever and end years of a Chinese jet sales drought.

Bloomberg offered a caveat:

There's a chance that the talks could reach an impasse and a deal not be completed, they cautioned. The nation's leaders were closing in on a similar agreement last year and in 2023. The two sides are still negotiating the specifics of the announcement, with the US pushing for a firm commitment and not just a headline-grabbing dollar value, said one of the people.

Shares of Boeing jumped about 2% on the news.

Bloomberg noted that Boeing declined to comment, while China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to a request for comment. We caution that the report relies on unnamed sources.

Our view is that a headline like this appears highly unusual (the scale of the order suggest more than simply a gesture of goodwill), particularly as Trump has moved to squeeze Beijing's access to cheap crude from Venezuela and Iran.

Even with the risk of an energy shock, Beijing now appears to be on the verge of buying a record number of U.S. commercial jets, which suggests Trump may have gained some leverage (perhaps through his two-month crusade with America's military) ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 14:10

It Was All A Mirage: 2.5 Million Native-Born US Workers Were Just Revised Away

One of Donald Trump's core pre-election promises (along with cracking down on immigration and no more foreign wars) was to boost employment for local-born Americans at the expense of the record employment for foreign-born, mostly illegal, workers. And for a while it worked: four months ago, when discussing the September jobs report, we said that while the broader report was generally mixed, it was "indisputably strong when it comes to one thing: the rotation from foreign born workers to domestic ones. To wit: in September, the number of native-born workers surged by 676K (after the August drop of 561K), while foreign-born workers dropped by 70K."

The data showed that since Trump entered the White House "the number of foreign born workers has slumped from a record 33.7 million in March 2025 to 32.1 million, a drop of $1.6 million. This has been offset by a slow but consistent increase in native-born workers which had been unchanged for six years since 2019 until the start of 2025, at which point it started to rise again, and has increased from 131.2 million in March 2025 to a new record high of 133.2 million in September."

Why does this matter? Because today's job report, which was undeniably dismal and sparked added to the sharp selloff across the market, also updated the working age population calculations to reflect the latest US Census population count for 2025. The new controls led to a big change in the January estimate of various employment metrics. They

• Lowered the working-age population by 231k;
• Reduced the labor force by 1,417k;
• Cut the employment level by around 1,432k;
• Lowered the labor-force participation rate by 0.46 percentage point and the employment-to-population ratio by 0.47 ppt.

But perhaps the most important revision is that the entire boom in native-born employment was fake news: a statistical mirage spawned by some overzealous BLS staffer's excel model. 

Presenting exhibit A: the monthly change in native and foreign-born workers. It shows that while the number of native-born workers in February did post a solid rise of 877K - using the revised data - this was only after the January data was revised comprehensively to wipe out a record 2.5 million (exactly) native born workers.

And here is what it looks like over the longer-term: at just under 131 million, the number of native born workers is back to where it was in 2019.

Which means that what some consider the greatest accomplishment of the Trump admin was nothing more than statistical fake news. The silver lining: at least there is the Iran war to keep everyone distracted. 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:40

"Most Dangerous Geopolitical Blitz Since Bretton Woods": Trump Says Cuba's Communist Regime Is Next To Fall

"We've got plenty of time, but Cuba's ready," President Trump told CNN in an interview on Friday morning. The president told CNN reporter Dana Bash that Havana will "fall pretty soon" and that he will "place Marco over there." 

2/7 ON CUBA: President Trump said, "Cuba is gonna fall pretty soon." He said he's going to "put Marco over there" and "we've got plenty of time, but Cuba's ready."

— Dana Bash (@DanaBashCNN) March 6, 2026

The Trump administration has communicated for months about toppling the Communist regime in Havana as power blackouts across the Caribbean island nation worsen this week. 

Trump's fuel blockade on Cuba has led some analysts to warn that the Cuban government will exhaust all fuel reserves by mid- to late March, bringing the island into complete paralysis.

Marco Rubio looking forward to what March brings with Cuba. pic.twitter.com/tBYM7pyKU7

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) March 1, 2026

It's clear that Trump has tasked Secretary of State Marco Rubio with leading the talks on a "friendly" takeover of the island. 

"They want to make a deal so badly, you have no idea," Trump said at the White House on Thursday.  

Making sense of the world seemingly in a fiery mess is Graham Cooke, founder of Brava (brava.xyz), an automated stablecoin yield platform, who wrote on X, "Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods. And the endgame isn't a trade war."

Cooke continued, "There's a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play -- one designed to collapse BRICS, force China's hand, and lock in dollar dominance for decades." 

Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods.

And the endgame isn't a trade war.

There's a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play -- one designed to collapse BRICS, force China's hand, and lock in dollar dominance for… pic.twitter.com/Z5IrGSrfzZ

— GC Cooke (@Gccooke) March 5, 2026

Over the last two months, the Trump administration has increased pressure on Beijing. The timeline is very notable: Maduro's removal effectively shut Venezuelan crude flows to China; the U.S. then tightened Cuba's fuel position to position the island towards collapse to rid the communists from Havana; Panama eliminated Chinese-linked ports at the canal; and now, nearly a week into Trump's Operation Epic Fury against Iran, China's access to cheap Iranian crude and gas has been severed. All of this comes before Trump heads to China later this month, holding multiple new leverage cards in one absolutely insane chess game to play in the midterm election cycle. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:20

Virginia Democrats Move To Require Teaching Jan. 6th As An "Insurrection"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Virginia Democrats are moving to require teachers to tell students that Jan. 6th was an “insurrection” and effectively bar them from referencing “peaceful protests” or election irregularities. The characterization of the riot as an insurrection is historically and legally false. However, any parents who want to send their children to Virginia public schools would have to accept this form of indoctrination as part of their children’s education.

In the last election, Democrats campaigned as moderates, including Abigail Spanberger.

Once in control of the Governor’s mansion and the legislature, however, they have moved quickly to the far left in a flurry of measures. Democratic legislators just voted themselves almost a 300% increase in salaries.  They will need it. They are moving to increase taxes on ride shares, concerts, counseling, leaf blowers, Amazon deliveries, DoorDash, Uber Eats, ammunition, and other areas.

However, HB 333, drafted by Del. Dan I. Helmer of Fairfax, raises serious concerns over academic freedom and free speech.

The summary of the bill mandates “a program of instruction on or relating to the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the United States Capitol” and further:

“prohibits any such program of instruction, any accompanying curriculum or instructional materials, or any instruction provided by a teacher as a part of such program of instruction from (i) describing, portraying, or presenting as credible a description or portrayal of the actions precipitating or involved in the January 6, 2021, insurrection as peaceful protest or (ii) stating, suggesting, or presenting as credible a statement or suggestion that there was extensive election fraud that could have changed or actually changed the results of the 2020 presidential election. The bill requires any such program of instruction, any accompanying curriculum or instructional materials, or any instruction provided by a teacher as a part of such program of instruction to describe the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the United States Capitol as an unprecedented, violent attack on U.S. democratic institutions, infrastructure, and representatives for the purpose of overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election.”

Soon after Jan. 6th, I condemned the riot but rejected the argument that this was an insurrection. However, it soon became part of an orthodoxy in politics and academia despite the fact that the public rejected it. As former House Speaker Pelosi declared, “It is essential that we preserve the narrative of January 6th.”

Yet, “insurrection” and “sedition” are legal terms. They have a meaning. The FBI investigated thousands after January 6th and charged hundreds. Not one was charged with insurrection or conspiracy to overthrow the country. The vast majority are charged with relatively minor offenses of trespass or unlawful entry or property damage- the type of charges that are common in protests and riots.

Indeed, the Supreme Court effectively reduced many of the charges to mere trespass in later litigation, rejecting obstruction claims.

Faced with a collapsing historical and legal narrative, Democrats are now moving to simply indoctrinate students that this was an “insurrection.”

Notably, Helmer is running again for Congress after Democrats, with the support of Gov. Spanberger, moved to reduce Republicans in the state (which is divided down the middle between the parties) to just one of eleven districts through gerrymandering.

Helmer is running in one of the most notorious new districts, called the “lobster” or the “scorpion,” because it runs from the Potomac River in Arlington southwestward, then splits into two “claws” toward the West Virginia line near Rawley Springs and Goochland and Powhatan.

In my book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, I discuss the radicalization of the American left. While many on the left advocate censoring “disinformation,” they are far less circumspect in promulgating their own disinformation.

Likewise, where Democrats have objected to the pressure put on universities for greater diversity of viewpoints as an attack on academic freedom, these Democrats see no problem in mandating the teaching of positions that are demonstrably false.

Here, Rep. Helmer and other Democrats are mandating the teaching of a false narrative to children rather than simply relying on public debate. The reason is that they are losing the debate over the characterization of this riot as an actual insurrection.

This, and other moves on the left, will only accelerate the exodus of families from public education. Notably, Fairfax County (which Helmer represents) has seen a sharp fall in enrollments in recent years.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:00

Anthropic CEO Apologizes For 'Dictator Trump' Meltdown Memo, Downplays 'Supply Chain Risk' Designation, And Is Going To Sue

As Anthropic attempts to salvage their relationship with the Trump administration, CEO Dario Amodei publicly apologized Thursday for the inflammatory tone of his leaked internal memo that accused the White House of targeting his company because it hadn't offered "dictator-style praise" to President Trump. The apology came in his first major interview since the Pentagon's Department of War (DoW) formally designated Anthropic a supply chain risk to national security - effective immediately - marking the first time such a label has been applied to a U.S. company.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Photos: Getty Images

The March 5 designation, confirmed in a letter to Anthropic leadership, stems from weeks of failed negotiations over Claude AI's military applications. Anthropic refused to drop strict red lines prohibiting the model's use for mass domestic surveillance of Americans or fully autonomous lethal weapons, insisting on meaningful safeguards rather than what Amodei previously called "safety theater" in rival deals like OpenAI's. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had threatened broad restrictions, including barring defense contractors from any commercial activity with Anthropic, but the company clarified the scope appears narrower: it primarily affects direct DoW-related work, with partners like Microsoft confirming continued availability for non-defense uses.

Last Friday, the Trump administration 'fired' the company after a bruising dispute with the Pentagon came to a head over ethical concerns surrounding Claude's military use. The Pentagon demanded to use ClaudeAI for "any lawful purpose" with no guardrails - or having to allegedly ask permission in a life-or-death scenario.

In the interview with The Economist Amodei described the crisis as one of the most "disorienting" in Anthropic's history. He attributed the leaked memo - written hastily on Slack amid rapid-fire events including Trump's announcements and OpenAI snaking their contract - to confusion and panic from a "difficult day."

"It does not reflect my careful or considered views," he said, downplaying it as a casual internal message rather than a formal memo. He said he'd apologized to DoW personnel and signaled openness to further dialogue with administration figures, though he sidestepped a direct personal apology to Trump.

Dario Amodei says he is sorry. In his first interview since the Pentagon labelled Anthropic a supply-chain risk—the first American company to receive that designation—the firm’s boss offered a mea culpa for the way he handled a crisis that he described as one of the most… pic.twitter.com/VueK528Yqj

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) March 6, 2026

Amodei's Thursday mea culpa was accompanied with a blog post titled: "Where things stand with the Department of War," where he emphasized shared interests with the military, offered Claude at nominal cost plus engineer support for warfighters, and highlighted ongoing "productive conversations" despite the label.

I also want to apologize directly for a post internal to the company that was leaked to the press yesterday. Anthropic did not leak this post nor direct anyone else to do so—it is not in our interest to escalate this situation. That particular post was written within a few hours of the President’s Truth Social post announcing Anthropic would be removed from all federal systems, the Secretary of War’s X post announcing the supply chain risk designation, and the announcement of a deal between the Pentagon and OpenAI, which even OpenAI later characterized as confusing. It was a difficult day for the company, and I apologize for the tone of the post. It does not reflect my careful or considered views. It was also written six days ago, and is an out-of-date assessment of the current situation.

He also refuted a claim from an anonymous Pentagon official cited in the Washington Post that the Pentagon would have to call Anthropic before making life-or-death decisions in the field, writing: 

As we stated last Friday, we do not believe, and have never believed, that it is the role of Anthropic or any private company to be involved in operational decision-making—that is the role of the military. Our only concerns have been our exceptions on fully autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance, which relate to high-level usage areas, and not operational decision-making.

The letter also reiterates a Friday comment that Anthropic will sue to challenge the supply-chain risk designation, calling it "not legally sound" and warning of a "chilling" effect on AI innovation and business if it stands. "We see no choice but to challenge it in court," he wrote, while reiterating Anthropic's desire to continue equipping U.S. forces amid operations (like against Iran via tools including Palantir's Maven). The dual track - apology plus litigation - reflects heavy investor pressure from backers like Amazon and Nvidia to salvage the $380 billion valuation amid revenue momentum nearing a $20 billion annual run rate.

The company also suggested that the supply chain risk designation isn't that bad anyway, and won't affect their customers who deal with the government outside the Department of War; 

The language used by the Department of War in the letter (even supposing it was legally sound) matches our statement on Friday that the vast majority of our customers are unaffected by a supply chain risk designation. With respect to our customers, it plainly applies only to the use of Claude by customers as a direct part of contracts with the Department of War, not all use of Claude by customers who have such contracts.

The Department’s letter has a narrow scope, and this is because the relevant statute (10 USC 3252) is narrow, too. It exists to protect the government rather than to punish a supplier; in fact, the law requires the Secretary of War to use the least restrictive means necessary to accomplish the goal of protecting the supply chain. Even for Department of War contractors, the supply chain risk designation doesn’t (and can’t) limit uses of Claude or business relationships with Anthropic if those are unrelated to their specific Department of War contracts.

The situation underscores major issues that will persist with Silicon Valley's AI-defense nexus: ethical red lines versus unrestricted "any lawful purpose" access, with OpenAI positioned as the compliant alternative. As talks continue and a courtroom battle looms, Anthropic's future hangs on whether Amodei's contrition buys enough goodwill to avert broader fallout—or if the "supply chain risk" label becomes a permanent scar on one of AI's most principled players.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 12:40

Trump Says He's "Not Concerned" About Biggest Gas Pump Price Spike In Years

Americans are experiencing a sharp rise in gas prices this week, with the national average gasoline price posting its largest weekly jump since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war. If fuel prices continue to climb as the U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury intensifies against Iran, the fallout for consumer sentiment may weigh on the broader economy and affect voting polls in the near term.

The surge in gasoline and diesel prices at pumps nationwide doesn't appear to be a concern for President Trump (at least not yet).

"I don't have any concern about it," the president told Reuters in an interview on Thursday evening when asked about rising prices.

"They'll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit."

The president's comments come as the national average gas price at the pump has jumped nearly 11% this week to $3.32 per gallon, according to the latest figures from the travel organization AAA.

The nearly 11% surge in the national average is the biggest weekly jump since the week of March 6, 2022, when there was a 12.6% spike due to energy market chaos stemming from the war in Eastern Europe.

Surging WTI futures on Friday morning, now at $86/bbl (Brent crude futures above $90/bbl), suggest that pump prices could be headed higher into the weekend. This is a very big concern for the Trump administration, despite Trump downplaying the whole price surge.

"We have slightly higher oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than ever before," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday.

Current WTI fut pricing suggests $3.80-ish for gas at the pump. 

Trump has often touted low pump prices as one of his major accomplishments in making the economy more affordable for Americans after the inflation storm during the four years of the Biden-Harris administration. To be fair, gas prices nationwide are still relatively low compared to those years.

On Wednesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that any increase in pump prices would be a temporary bump and a "very small price to pay" for accomplishing Trump's goals in the Middle East. The U.S. is more sheltered than ever to withstand a global energy shock, thanks to Trump's 'pump baby pump' pro-energy policies.

To mitigate the incoming energy shock created by the paralyzed Strait of Hormuz, Trump ordered the government to provide risk insurance for tankers transiting the waterway earlier this week. However, as we have already explained, and as Qatar's energy minister warned this morning, the risks of both an energy shock and a financial shock are soaring.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 12:00

Appeals Court Rules Trump Can Suspend Refugee Admissions

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has legal authority to indefinitely suspend the admission of foreign nationals who are trying to enter the United States through its refugee resettlement program, a federal appeals court ruled on March 5.

Trump froze refugee resettlement programs as he took office in January 2025.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit issued the new opinion in the case known as Pacito v. Trump.

The panel overturned most of the injunctions that Seattle-based U.S. District Judge Jamal Whitehead issued in February 2025. The judge had blocked Trump’s move to suspend the refugee resettlement program indefinitely, finding the president had gone beyond his legal authority by pausing the program.

In March 2025, the Ninth Circuit paused most of Whitehead’s rulings in favor of the plaintiffs and allowed Trump’s policy to be enforced while the litigation played out.

Trump signed Executive Order 14163 on Jan. 20, 2025. It said that the entry of refugees into the United States under the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) would be detrimental to the country and that the entry of refugees under the program should be suspended.

In Executive Order 14169, signed the same day, Trump directed that funding be suspended for the processing of applications from individuals outside the United States seeking refugee status. He also cut off funding for domestic settlement services for refugees who have been admitted to the United States.

In the new ruling, Circuit Judge Jay Bybee noted that the plaintiffs consisted of refugees recently admitted to the United States and refugees approved for U.S. resettlement but who are outside the country. Also among the plaintiffs were U.S.-based individuals seeking admission for family members or sponsees, and three organizations that had agreements with the U.S. Department of State to provide overseas processing and domestic resettlement services, he said.

The plaintiffs argued that Trump’s suspension of the refugee program violated the Immigration and Nationality Act and that defunding the program violated the Administrative Procedure Act.

The Administrative Procedure Act is a federal statute enacted in 1946 that governs administrative law procedures for federal executive departments and independent agencies. The late U.S. Sen. Pat McCarran (D-Nev.) said at the time the law was “a bill of rights for the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose affairs are controlled or regulated in one way or another by agencies of the federal government.”

Bybee said the court recognizes the “enormous practical implications of this decision,” which largely overrules Whitehead’s orders.

“There are over one hundred thousand vetted and conditionally approved refugees, many of whom may have spent years completing the USRAP process in a third country only to be turned away on the tarmac,” he said.

In the Immigration and Nationality Act, Congress gave the president the power to “suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens,” and it is not for the court to decide if this is a “prudent policy,” Bybee said.

The panel voted 2–1 to uphold Whitehead’s orders preventing the federal government from ending services to already-admitted refugees and the termination of agreements with resettlement support centers.

Circuit Judge Kenneth Lee dissented in that vote, saying he would have completely reversed Whitehead’s orders.

“District courts cannot stand athwart, yelling ‘stop’ just because they genuinely believe they are the last refuge against policies that they deem to be deeply unwise,” Lee said.

A Department of Justice spokesman said the panel’s ruling “reaffirms that activist district court judges cannot usurp the power of the president to protect the American people and set refugee policy for the United States.”

Mevlude Akay Apl, an attorney for the plaintiffs with the International Refugee Assistance Project, said the panel’s ruling “removes the ability for refugees stranded by the refugee ban to be safely resettled, or even have their cases processed, while President Trump’s cruel ban continues.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 11:40

Kuwait Cuts Oil Output As Qatar Warns Hormuz Chokepoint Chaos Risks Global Shock

Update (1126ET):

Kuwait began cutting crude oil output after storage tank farms began filling up, as crude could no longer be loaded onto very large crude carriers and transported through the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Sources say the OPEC founding member is now weighing broader reductions in crude production and refining, potentially limiting operations to only domestic demand, with a decision expected within days.

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu noted that Brent crude futures climbed to $91/bbl after WSJ released the report.

WSJ noted:

Data provider Kpler said it has seen indications that Kuwait has started to cut production, adding that the country would have to cut more output in the coming days, as storage would otherwise fill up in around 12 days.

Shutting in an oil well risks long-term damage to reservoir pressure and incurs high restart costs, usually making it a measure of last resort. Restarting production can take days or even weeks depending on the reservoir.

"Storage is limited in the Middle East, and the only fix to avoid tanks running over is to curb production," UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "The longer the strait stays closed, the more barrels of crude and refined products will be missing, leading to higher prices."

Earlier in the day, Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the FT that "Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call a force majeure."

Also, Iraq had already slashed oil production by half earlier this week, while Qatar shut gas liquefaction plants.

Brent crude futures surged above $91/bbl on Friday morning in New York.

Even if a resolution emerges in the near term, restarting crude fields, refineries, and export hubs would likely take at least a month, and possibly longer. This suggests that the risk of an energy shock is fast approaching.

*   *  * 

Brent crude futures are on track for their biggest weekly gain since the early days of Covid, with the move now exceeding the 20% weekly spike at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, as the U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, Operation Epic Fury, has tipped the Gulf into an energy crisis, freezing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing some regional oil and gas production offline.

On Friday, Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the Financial Times that the Gulf conflict could trigger a global economic shock, warning that continued fighting would force all Gulf energy exporters to halt output and could send Brent crude prices north of $150 a barrel.

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours.

Unreal.

Source: @MarineTraffic pic.twitter.com/krcT5qp4ik

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) March 5, 2026

"Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure," Kaabi explained. "If they don't, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that's their choice."

Qatar is the world's second-largest producer of LNG and was forced to declare force majeure earlier this week after IRGC drone strikes on its Ras Laffan plant.

"This will bring down the economies of the world," he warned. "If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody's energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply."

Kaabi continued, "We don't yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not yet clear how long repairs will take."

On Tuesday, we provided readers with the number of days of disruption needed in the Gulf area (the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint) to trigger actual panic, that is 25. Read the full report here.

And for Zerohedge Premium and Pro subs. JPMorgan crunched the math on Hormuz and revealed just how many days until chaos (report here). 

The math behind the forced shut ins https://t.co/SJ88Pky7D3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 6, 2026

Then, on Thursday, energy economist Anas Alhajji spoke with top UBS analysts on a webinar that also provided a timeline for energy market chaos and the risks of an impending economic shock.

"Our main scenario is that if this lasts four weeks, things will be completely out of control. And when I say out of control, I mean that even if China starts releasing oil from its inventories, the problem is that my guess is China would also restrict exports, which means that oil would remain in China. We were counting on that oil being in the market, and now it is not going to be in the market," Alhajji said.

Alhajji outlined critical questions:

• Is the war about Iran's nuclear program, or is something much larger at play, with Iran serving more as a trigger or for broader strategic objectives?

• The distinction matters significantly because the medium- and long-term outcomes would look very different.

• Should attention be focused narrowly on Iran's nuclear program and regime change, or should the situation be analyzed within the much wider context of China, trade wars & tariffs, AI competition, Panama Canal, Red Sea, Venezuela, Syria, & Greenland?

• Are we observing "conflicts" within a larger "CONFLICT," where some groups are opportunistically exploiting the situation to pursue their own "local" objectives?

As well as the problem:

• The problem now is attacks that spark panic buying while Saudi Arabia cannot react. Thus, U.S. SPR release is limited, and China might ban exports. Prices would go above $100 easily, but fear would contain demand growth, limiting the increase in oil prices. The impact on LNG and NGLs is higher than on oil.

• We cannot go back quickly to normal. It will take at least 2 months if the war stops tomorrow. (logistics and technical issues)

• Lack of international cooperation (Every country for itself)

In energy markets, Brent crude futures are up 21%, exceeding the 20% spike at the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, and are on track for their largest weekly gain since the first week of May 2020.

Back to 2024 highs. 

There are no signs, at the moment, that the conflict is nearing an end. In fact, there are reports that IRGC forces just hit a US-owned oil tanker near Kuwait.

Goldman analysts earlier this week warned about $100/bbl crude oil prices. Disruptions across the Gulf have already sent diesel futures up 40% this week, while central banks are warning of a possible inflation spike.

Asia's exposure to Gulf oil is concerning, but China's exposure is even more alarming. This suggests that if the conflict persists, Beijing could be facing an incoming shock that risks morphing into a financial crisis

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 11:26

Jobs Shock: US Lost 92K Payrolls In February, Far Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemployment Rate Rises

In our nonfarm payrolls preview, we quoted JPMorgan's Market Intel desk which said that "for this print, the stronger the better", which by implication means that a poor number would be bad. By that logic, the actual number couldn't be any worse, because moments ago the BLS reported that in February, the US lost 92,000 jobs, a huge drop from the downward revised (of course) 126K in January, and the second worst print since 2020 (only October's shock -140K was worse), and this time, the massive drop can’t be dismissed as a one-time drop in government payrolls. The number of private payrolls dropped by 86K, also a huge miss to estimates of a 60K increase.

The February payrolls print was a six-sigma miss to the 55K median estimate, and came in 83K below the lowest estimate!

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000, and the change for January was revised down by 4,000, from +130,000 to +126,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 69,000 lower than previously reported. 

On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, 563k jobs were added in February, lower than the BBG estimate of 800k. An important driver of the jobs miss was the revised birth-and-death model, which contributed only 90k to February’s nonseasonally adjusted estimate. That compares with 136k last February and 151k in February 2024.

One potential mitigating factor: the number of people who were unable to work due to weather surged to 228K in February, well above last year's level 167K, due to the powerful winter storms hitting the US.

Looking under the surface does not reveal as silver lining: part-time workers dropped by 249K while full-time workers slid by 100K.

Perhaps the only silver lining was that native-born workers jumped by 877K (which was only a modest reversal of the 2.5 million drop last month), while foreign born workers dropped by 394K.

The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.44% vs estimates of an unchanged print, as the number of unemployed workers rose by 203K from 7.368MM to 7.571MM, while the civilian labor force was virtually unchanged (from 170.564K to 170.483K). Notably, the increase in unemployment was driven by an increase in the U-2 rate – those who lost their jobs – which went from 2.05% in January to 2.12% in February.

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.0% (below the estimate of 62.5%), and the employment-population ratio, at 59.3%, changed little in February. These measures showed little change over the year, after accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls. 

Turning to wages, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM, same as January and above estimates of a 0.3% imcrease. This translated into a 3.8% YoY increase, up from 3.7% and the consensus of an unchanged print.

Some more details from the report

• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in February but is up from 1.5 million a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people in February. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 477,000 to 4.4 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little in February at 6.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.6 million in February. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, decreased by 109,000 in February to 366,000. 

Turning to the establishment survey, which unveiled the shocking February drop, the BLS reported a broad-based decline, driven by striking employment workers:

• Employment in health care decreased in February, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down. Payroll employment changed little on net in 2025. 
• Health care employment declined by 28,000 in February, following a large increase in January (+77,000). Offices of physicians lost 37,000 jobs in February, primarily due to strike activity. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs. Over the prior 12 months, health care had added an average of 36,000 jobs per month. 
• Employment in information continued to trend down in February (-11,000). The industry had lost an average of 5,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
• In February, federal government employment continued to decline (-10,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 330,000, or 11.0 percent.
• Employment in social assistance continued its upward trend in February (+9,000), driven by individual and family services (+12,000).
• Transportation and warehousing employment changed little in February (-11,000). A job loss in couriers and messengers (-17,000) was partially offset by a gain in air transportation (+5,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing has declined by 157,000, or 2.4 percent, since reaching a peak in February 2025.
• Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Looking at the sectoral composition of hiring, it’s clear that strikes and weather were a drag:

• The net change in health-care payrolls declined steeply, to -28k in February from 77k in January. A strike by 31k employees at Kaiser Permanente contributed to the drop.
• Construction (-11k vs. 48k prior), retail trade (2k vs. 11k prior), and leisure and hospitality (-27k vs -12k prior) all contributed to the decline. Hiring in these sectors tends to be sensitive to weather conditions, suggesting the storms in early February – and perhaps payback from temperate weather in the first half of January – played a role in the weak February print.

In the household survey, the BLS updated the working age population calculations to reflect the latest US Census population count for 2025. The new controls led to a big change in the January estimate of various employment metrics. They

• Lowered the working-age population by 231k;
• Reduced the labor force by 1,417k;
• Cut the employment level by around 1,432k;
• Lowered the labor-force participation rate by 0.46 percentage point and the employment-to-population ratio by 0.47 ppt.
• Altogether, that lifted the unemployment rate by 4 bps.

Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ updated “birth-and-death” model of business formations — which now incorporates current-month information — exaggerated the weaknesses.

Excluding the temporary effects, Bloomberg's economists think payrolls probably are growing at a pace of around 20k per month. That’s slightly below the breakeven pace, explaining the rise in the unemployment rate for the month.

While we will have more to say about this report, the kneejerk reaction is, well, bad: this was about as ugly as it could be, and coming in a time when input costs are soaring due to the Iran war, it screams AI-driven stagflation. Indeed, Bloomberg's Anna Wong hesitates to dismiss the weakness as entirely temporary, a study by Bloomberg Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence of corporate earnings-call transcripts flags that companies across a broad set of industries intend to keep hiring flat this year.

Still, Wong writes that We see the labor market as cooling rather than deteriorating sharply - but the softness in hiring reinforces the case for Fed rate cuts later this year.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 10:45

Iran's Financial Hub, The UAE, May Freeze Billions In Assets Over Retaliatory Strikes

The United Arab Emirates is pissed after Iran targeted Dubai and other US allies with over 1,000 drones and missiles in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks over the last week - and is now weighing freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in the Gulf state, according to the WSJ, citing people familiar with the discussions. If that happens, it could sever one of Tehran's most vital economic lifelines. 

A black plume of smoke rises from a warehouse at the industrial area of Sharjah City in the United Arab Emirates following reports of Iranian strikes in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

For years, the United Arab Emirates has functioned as a financial hub for Iran, including wealthy individuals, businesses, and accounts associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While some of that (if not most) is legitimate business, the UAE has also been used to launder money through 'shadow banking' and other schemes - something the UAE has worked with the west (probably not that hard) to combat.

The UAE has been a 'Switzerland' of sorts - welcoming capital from around the world with little judgement, including happily doing business with Russian commodities traders and bankers following the invasion of Ukraine, despite US officials insisting that they ramp up scrutiny on money flows and crack down on sanctions evasion. In 2022, Paris-0based Financial Action Task Force placed the UAE on its "gray list" for failing to combat money laundering and terrorism financing.

In 2024, $9 billion linked to clandestine Iranian financial activity passed through UAE-based firms, largely connected to oil sales by Iran-linked companies in Dubai, according to the Treasury Department. 

Iranian Funds for Hezbollah Are Flowing Through Dubai (WSJ)

Treasury Sanctions Iranian Network Laundering Billions for Regime Through Shadow Banking Scheme (US Treasury)

After the UAE closed a handful of accounts held by Russian oligarchs and oil traders at the behest of US officials, the FATF removed them from their list for strengthening their anti-money-laundering policies. But they still hold billions in Iranian assets, and they're not to happy about being targeted in retaliation strikes - which have caused damage at a Dubai airport, residential and tourist areas around the Burj Al Arab hotel, and the Palm Jumeirah man-made island. 

Tehran has been selling oil on the international market to fund the IRGC as well as other parts of their defense and security complex, through this shadow banking scheme, according to Treasury.

As such, any move to limit Iranian financial activities - which would likely not apply to all accounts held by Iranian companies and nationals (hundreds of thousands of whom live in the UAE) - "would be very significant, because the U.A.E. is the most important conduit for Iran’s engagement with the global economy," said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of Iran-focused think tank Bourse & Bazaar, in a statement to the Journal. 

U.A.E. authorities are weighing several measures to dismantle illicit Iranian operations, officials familiar with the matter said. They range from freezing the assets of U.A.E.-based shadow companies used to mask trade to a sweeping financial crackdown on local currency exchanges which are used to move money outside of formal banking channels.

If the U.A.E. decides to move on Iran’s shadow-financing empire, a prime target would be accounts affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful group responsible for defending and perpetuating the regime, the officials familiar with the discussions said.

That said, the UAE is also carefully weighing the risks of an asset freeze - as they're concerned that it may trigger prolonged retaliation by Iran against the Emirati territory and their critical energy infrastructure. It would also damage their ability to attract and retain capital from other sensitive countries such as Russia. 

"This is the most important nonmilitary lever the U.A.E. have to play against the Iranians," said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, adding that a more targeted approach is the most likely course. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 10:40

From 'Model Migrant' To Wife-Chopper: Integration Poster-Boy Accused Of Grisly Murder

Via Remix News,

The Eritrean migrant accused of dismembering his partner and the mother of his daughter was once held up as a “model migrant” 10 years ago in a variety of German newspapers. These papers reported that he was an example of how “integration” could work.

Today, 41-year-old Asmerom G. is accused of butchering his own wife. In fact, authorities have still not found her head.

German media were still singing his praises in 2016. The man from Eritrea had landed a job as an electrical assistant at a firm in Rheinbach, in North Rhine-Westphalia, and gave interviews about leaving his homeland three years earlier to escape political persecution.

He wanted German citizenship, he said. His boss at the time was quick to describe Asmerom G. as talented, reliable, and “capable of anything,” according to Bild newspaper.

However, then reality arrived. Within a year, Asmerom G. was in trouble with the law. A brawl led to a conviction for grievous bodily harm at Siegburg District Court, earning him a six-month suspended sentence.

He moved on from Rheinbach and took up work behind the wheel of a freight truck.

Somewhere along the way, he made a trip back to his home country — for reasons that remain unclear — and returned to Germany with a woman named Weghata A., who was 31, his wife under Eritrean law.

On July 26, 2025, she delivered their daughter.

Three months later, Weghata A. was dead.

What happened next garnered headlines across Germany.

On Nov. 17, on Autobahn 45 near Olpe on Nov. 17, a driver said she spotted something on the side of the road. When officers investigated, they found two severed women’s hands. Forensic teams matched the fingerprints to Weghata A., who had already been reported missing from her asylum accommodation in Bonn, where she had been living alone with her infant daughter.

Days later, Weghata A.’s torso was recovered, but her head remains missing.

The baby was found the day before, alive and unharmed, abandoned in a stroller in Hesse outside the Kröffelbach monastery in Waldsolms. A monk found the child and two handwritten notes giving only her name and date of birth.

While investigators quickly identified Asmerom G. as the prime suspect, he had already boarded a flight to Ethiopia. He was arrested there in late November.

In early February, he was extradited back to Germany, where he is now in pre-trial detention.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 10:00

Russia Giving Iran Targeting Intelligence Of American Warships, Aircraft: US Officials

The Trump-ordered US-Israeli attack on Iran is continuing to create an array of 'unknowns' while steadily drawing in outside powers, with the most significant Friday development being The Washington Post reporting that Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence on the locations of US military assets in the Middle East, including warships and aircraft.

US officials described the effort as "a pretty comprehensive effort" by Moscow, though the accuracy of the intelligence remains unclear - the paper admits. What follows is the money quote:

"Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major US adversary is participating – even indirectly – in the war, according to three officials familiar with the intelligence."

Russian Foreign Ministry image/Flickr

The report cites three officials familiar with the intelligence, who spoke about the support on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

"The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said," WaPo writes.

A couple of contextual issues: it remains that the 'fog of war' and propaganda is very heavy - and so such allegations especially from an ultra-heart-of-the-establishment D.C. beltway publication should be treated with caution and skepticism.

It is meant to keep pressure and scrutiny on Moscow at a moment the world's attention is wholly fixated on the Iran theatre. 

However, it also makes perfect sense that Moscow would support a remaining Middle East ally (after the fall of Assad in Syria), given that Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement earlier this year expanding military and defense cooperation. Despite that, Hegseth said earlier in the week that Russia is "not really a factor" in the conflict.

If the report is accurate, what might this look like on the ground? Here's an example of the possible implications:

New investigations by CNN reveal that Iran successfully destroyed an advanced U.S. radar system located inside Jordanian territory.

According to CNN’s analysis of satellite imagery, the radar installation appears to have been completely destroyed. The investigation also indicates that buildings housing similar radar systems at two additional locations in the United Arab Emirates were reportedly targeted in separate attacks.

Above: this is over 500 miles from Iran.

Could the Iran war eventually emerge as the next ground zero Mideast proxy battleground between the US and Russia? It remains unlikely that Moscow will get involved too directly, given also it has a costly war with Ukraine to run; however, this alleged heightened intelligence sharing with Tehran points to a first step of sorts.

From the Kremlin's point of view, Washington has already long been doing the same, and in a major way, in the context of the Ukraine proxy war.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 09:40

US Retail Sales Dropped In January As Weather, Weak Gas Prices Weigh

This morning's retail sales data is for January (still lagging due to the govt shutdown) and is expected to be a decline (BofA's omniscient analysts see a worse than consensus drop MoM, due in large part to weather disruptions).

The actual print was a decline but slightly better than expected at -0.2% MoM. Despite two months of no increase, sales rose 3.2% YoY in January (increased from December)

Source: Bloomberg

The decline was driven by a decline in sales at gas stations (lower gas prices) and Health Personal Care Stores. Motor Vehicles sales also dropped MoM. Non-store (online) retailers saw sales surge MoM...

Even though December's seasonally-adjusted move was disappointing, it was a record high on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and January saw the usual big post-Xmas hangover plunge...

Source: Bloomberg

A lengthy winter storm that included significant snowfall and ice across the central and eastern US likely impeded shoppers during the weather event. The Arctic blast triggered the most flight cancellations since the pandemic and left more than 1 million homes and businesses without power.

Receipts at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, declined 0.2% in January. Restaurants including Sweetgreen and Chipotle said that sub-freezing temperatures and winter storms hindered sales.

'Real' retail sales (very roughly adjusted by CPI) showed an acceleration in January...

The report showed a 0.3% increase in so-called control-group sales - which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product. The measure excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 08:46

Futures, Global Markets Tumble As Oil Soars Amid Fears Of Lenghty Energy Crisis

Seven days into the war on Iran and markets are getting increasingly shaky. US equity futures tumbled ahead of the February jobs report, and are on pace to close the worst week for global markets since 2020 deep in the red as the selloff in global bonds deepened after another jump in oil prices fanned fears that the war in the Middle East is fueling inflation. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.7% lower while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9% with all Mag7 names lower in premarket trading (NVDA -0.9%, GOOGL -0.6%). The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed four basis points to 4.18%, on course for its biggest weekly advance since April as global government bonds tumble amid upside risks to inflation from higher energy prices. The dollar gained 0.2% while gold approached $5,100 an ounce. Commodities are mostly higher: Oil added another 6% with WTI now at $86.25; Oil prices are set for their strongest week since 2022, with the war in the Middle East effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. Precious metals are mixed (gold down, silver +0.8%); base metals are lower. Overnight, the biggest catalysts was another escalation in Middle East with some articles pointing to potential shutdown in energy exports from Gulf states. Today's US economic data slate includes February jobs report, January retail sales (8:30am), December business inventories (10am) and January consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (7:30am), Daly (8:30am, 10:15am), Goolsbee (9:50am), Paulson (10:15am), Miran (11:30am), Collins (1:20pm) and Hammack (1:30pm, 3:10pm).

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven are lowe (Microsoft -0.3%, Meta -0.5%, Tesla -0.6%, Alphabet -0.9%, Apple -0.7%, Amazon -1%, Nvidia -1.3%)

• Energy stocks are rising and airline stocks are declining as oil prices hit their highest level since 2024 and gas prices gained as the Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting oil supply.
• Gap Inc. (GAP) falls 8% after reporting fourth-quarter sales and profit that came in slightly below expectations, as two of its apparel chains underperformed. Old Navy, the company’s biggest brand, and Athleta, its smallest, missed comparable-sales estimates.
• Guidewire Software (GWRE) rises 3% after the company reported second-quarter results that were much stronger than expected. It also raised its full-year forecast.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rallies 11% after the chipmaker said its year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027, a bullish target that shows soaring demand from data center-related applications.
• Nutex Health Inc. (NUTX) plunges 28% after the health-focused application software firm reported revenue for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Samsara (IOT) climbs 11% after the technology firm reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that topped the average analyst estimate.
• Trade Desk (TTD) slips 1% after Wedbush downgraded the advertising technology company to underperform — a sell equivalent — from neutral, saying the impact of an OpenAI partnership is “overestimated.”

In corporate news, Anthropic vowed to legally contest a Pentagon decision to declare it a threat to the US supply chain under an authority normally reserved for foreign adversaries, escalating a showdown with the Trump administration over AI safeguards.

The Iran war has entered its seventh day, with Iran firing a barrage of missiles and drones across the Persian Gulf and Israel renewing its airstrikes. Qatar’s energy minister sparked a powerful spike in energy price after he warned that war in the region could “bring down the economies of the world” and predicted that all Gulf energy exporters would shutter production within weeks, in an interview with the Financial Times. This is precisely what we warned about yesterday in "JPMorgan's New Hormuz Closure Math: Just 3 Days Until Commodity Chaos." 

In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones targeting countries across the Persian Gulf overnight, while Israel renewed airstrikes on the Islamic Republic in a war that’s entered a seventh day with no end in sight. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain were among those came under renewed attack from the Islamic Republic, while Israeli airstrikes hit Tehran and Beirut.

Trump told NBC News that he wants Iran’s leadership structure fully removed, and that he has some names in mind for a “good leader.” The financial and logistical troubles the Iran war is causing for the global aviation industry are compounding by the day, with the number of canceled flights to Middle East hubs surpassing 27,000 since fighting began even as carriers look to resume some operations.

Still, US stocks are set to outperform global peers in a week that saw Middle East conflict drive fears of energy-driven price pressures, as traders awaited US jobs and retail sales data for insight into the Federal Reserve’s appetite for rate cuts.

That's the good news for Trump, the bad news is that retail gasoline hit $3.32 a gallon on Thursday as the Iran conflict disrupts energy supplies from the Middle East. At the same time, the selloff in global bonds deepened on concern the shock to energy markets could broaden and drive inflation higher.

Friday’s market moves are capping a week of sharp swings in which investors repeatedly recalibrated their outlook on the impact of the US-Israeli war against Iran. Fears that a near-complete halt in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a new inflation spike have led investors to scale back bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

“This is an anxiety not only about how long the conflict goes on, but what kind of effect it’s going to have on the mix between growth and inflation,” Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “The issue really is 20% of world supplies are going through that channel, it’s obviously very, very significant.”

Today’s jobs report may offer more insight on the Fed’s rate path. Headline NFP print estimate is currently 55k, down from 130k last month with unemployment rate expected unchanged at 4.3%. Bloomberg whisper number for headline print is currently 55k (our full preview is here). 

“The market would likely interpret robust job creation as evidence that the US economy remains on solid footing,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “This would accelerate the current rapid return to US equities and further fuel the reverse rotation we’ve observed over the past two weeks.”

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, expects a tepid job report, largely reflecting temporary disruptions.
She forecasts the US economy to have added just 13,000 jobs in February, down from 130,000 in January. The consensus among analysts is for 55,000, and the “whisper” is for 65,000.

“For this print, the stronger the better given the increase in inflation expectations due to energy prices,” the JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk led by Andrew Tyler says. “A weaker number will increase rate cut expectations, but the risk is stagflation in the near-term given the expected increase in inflation.”

Bond yields are ticking higher heading into the print, and the dollar is muted, with markets pricing in less than 40 basis points of rate cuts for the rest of this year. In another sign of risk aversion, gold remains on track for its first weekly decline in over a month, pressured by a stronger dollar and inflationary risks tied to the Middle East conflict.

Traders slashed bets on Bank of England rate cuts for 2026, pricing just about a 50% chance of a quarter-point move. The yield on two-year gilts surged 13 basis points to 3.93%. Money markets are also fully pricing in that the European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs this year, a turnaround from a week ago when a cut was viewed more likely.

European stocks are now in the red after opening higher. Energy is up, while media, construction and technology sectors fall. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Lufthansa shares climb as much as 4% after Europe’s largest carrier reported strong results and said it sees “significant” improvement in earnings in 2026.
• SFS rises as much as 6.1%, recovering some of this week’s losses, after the maker of components for the construction and automotive industries delivered better-than-expected results, according to analysts.
• ITV shares climb as much as 8.1% after Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Conor O’Shea raised his recommendation on the stock to buy from hold as he sees the weakness in advertising demand dissipating.
• Engineer IMI shares rise as much as 4.6% after the company delivered results ahead of expectations and announced a new £500 million buyback, supported by solid cash conversion.
• Zealand Pharma shares sink as much as 33%, the most on record, after mid-stage trial results for its experimental obesity shot being developed with Roche fell short of expectations.
• BE Semiconductor Industries shares fall as much as 12% as traders point to an article in Korean media on high-bandwidth memory.
• Infineon shares fall as much as 4% after UBS cut the recommendation on the chipmaker to neutral from buy, seeing limited upside to the firm’s margins and 2027 AI outlook, and growing inventory risk from a slowdown in China.
• Comet shares drop as much as 13% after the supplier of radio-frequency tools reported Ebitda for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Spie shares slide as much as 5.5% after the technical services provider delivered softer fourth-quarter organic growth across the majority of divisions, while consensus had already anticipated the improved mid-term margin goal, according to analysts at Jefferies.
• UCB drops as much as 2.9% after Morgan Stanley downgrades the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing increasing concerns around the Belgian biopharmaceutical company’s growth story

In FX, the greenback advances with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.2%. 

In rates, treasury futures continue to be pressured, sitting on session lows into the early US session as WTI futures extend their climb through $86 barrel, higher by another 6% on the day. US yields cheaper by 2bp to 5bp across the curve in a bear flattening move with 5s30s spread down around 2bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade close to highs of the day around 4.17%, with gilts leading the selloff in bonds with UK two-year yields up 11 bps as traders pare bets on easing by the BOE this year. In Europe, bonds underperform further with front-end gilts cheaper by 12bp on the day. US session focus includes February nonfarm payrolls at 8:30am New York. Fed cut premium continues to fade out of front-end swaps, which now price in around 32bp of rate cuts for the year and the first full 25bp move priced out to the October meeting. In Europe, a full rate hike is now priced by the end of the year. Treasury auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year sales for a combined $119 billion.

This week’s spike in Treasury yields is a sharp reversal from last month when they notched their sharpest drop in a year. Swaps now price between one and two Fed cuts for 2026 compared to as many as three a week ago. The dollar, meanwhile, has reclaimed its status as the ultimate haven as it headed for its best week in more than three years.

“Unless there can be some real political breakthrough that leads to a ceasefire, the dollar won’t be ready to resume a decline anytime soon,” ING Bank strategist Chris Turner wrote in a note. “The story will remain one of governments trying to handle the fallout of high energy prices, a negative for bond markets around the world.”

In commodities, Brent crude futures climb to a fresh high this week above $88 a barrel while European natural gas futures also rise after Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times the Middle East conflict will likely force Persian Gulf countries to halt energy exports.

Today's US economic data slate includes February jobs report, January retail sales (8:30am), December business inventories (10am) and January consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (7:30am), Daly (8:30am, 10:15am), Goolsbee (9:50am), Paulson (10:15am), Miran (11:30am), Collins (1:20pm) and Hammack (1:30pm, 3:10pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.6%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.17%
• VIX +0.4 points at 24.19
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1205.77
• euro -0.2% at $1.158
• WTI crude +3.9% at $84.13/barrel

Top Overnight News

• U.A.E. Explores Freezing Iranian Assets to Punish Tehran for Attacks: WSJ
• Oil Soars as Iran War Threatens Long Energy Outage; WTI Crude Tops $85 a Barrel as War Paralyzes Hormuz Traffic: BBG
• Israeli Military Moving to ‘Next Phase’ of Iran Campaign: WSJ
• Iran barrage sweeps Mideast as Trump weighs in on succession: BBG
• Iran says countries have begun mediation efforts: WSJ
• Iran’s Attacks on the UAE Are Costing It Access to Vital Imports: BBG
• Tehran Is Fighting With Jets That Date Back to the Vietnam War: WSJ
• Trump on rising gas prices during Iran operation - 'If they rise, they rise': RTRS
• SoftBank Seeks Record Loan of Up to $40 Billion for OpenAI Stake: BBG
• Drone strike drives calls to end British military presence on Cyprus: RTRS
• Trump Faces Criticism From UAE Business Community Over Iran War: BBG
• Israel targets bunker beneath Khamenei's compound in new wave of attacks: RTRS
• Israel's Hezbollah attacks are likely to continue beyond Iran war: RTRS
• Turkey asks Britain's MI6 to step up protection of Syria's Sharaa: RTRS
• Wealthy Moscow cuts investment, revealing Russia's deeper budget problems: RTRS
• Axel Springer Strikes $770 Million Deal for U.K.’s Daily Telegraph: WSJ
• Texas Republican Ends Re-Election Bid After Affair: AP

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed following the risk-averse mood in the US as geopolitics continued to dominate headlines, and with participants also cautious heading into key US jobs data. ASX 200 was dragged lower as the heavy losses in miners, materials and resources sectors offset the gains in tech and telecoms, while recent higher energy prices stoke inflationary concerns and narrow the policy space for the RBA. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and swung between gains and losses with very little fresh macro catalysts for Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp trade higher, albeit to varying degrees, with the mainland rangebound, while Hong Kong outperforms amid tech strength and as participants reflected on recent earnings from the likes of JD.com and Bilibili.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said Japan is ready to take timely steps against the economic impact from the Iran conflict, adds Japan is not fully out of deflation. Japan is ready to act on market volatility while consulting international authorities. Bank of Japan's monetary policy is focused on inflation and not on currency intervention. Wage gains are not BoJ's direct target but is key to price stability.
• PBoC adviser Huang Yiping said China's push to shift its economy towards consumer spending will take a long time, according to Bloomberg. Investors should dampen expectations for “aggressive” stimulus as the government doesn’t view it as a “crisis time”.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) initially traded mixed, but now hold a strong negative bias as the risk tone soured. Little driving the latest downturn, but with focus remaining on the geopolitical situation. European sectors were initially mixed, but now hold a negative bias. Energy takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in underlying energy prices, whilst Industrials is lifted by Defence names. To the downside, Media lags, hampered by post-earning losses in UMG (-5.5%).

Top European News

• EU GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est (Q4) Y/Y 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.4%, Low. 1.3%, High. 1.3%)
• EU Employment Change QoQ Final (Q4) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
• UK Halifax House Price Index YoY (Feb) Y/Y 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.1%, Rev. From 1%, Low. 0.5%, High. 0.9%).
• UK Halifax House Price Index MoM (Feb) M/M 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. From 0.7%).
• Norwegian Manufacturing Production MoM (Jan) M/M -0.3% (Prev. -0.1%).

FX

• DXY is relatively flat with a mild upward bias after a session of gains on Thursday. Thursday's action was spurred by a haven bid, and as yields climbed on firmer oil prices, in addition to well-received data ahead of NFP.
• EUR/USD returned below the 1.1600 handle after initially reclaiming the level in APAC trade, with downside exacerbated by the ongoing geopolitical and energy-related concerns, alongside the firming USD as traders flock to the haven. Little reaction to the rhetoric from ECB officials. Meanwhile, traders fully price in a 25bps ECB hike this year, Bloomberg reported. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1583-1.1621 range, within Thursday’s 1.1559-1.1647.
• GBP/USD is subdued amid the recent USD strength but remains tucked within yesterday’s 1.3297-1.3387 range. News flow for the UK remains light, but recent headlines centre around UK PM Starmer's shift from initially refusing to assist US military operations against Iran to later granting access to British military bases for "limited" and "defensive" purposes.
• USD/JPY is firmer with the JPY the underperforming G10 amid a rise in US yields and given Japan’s exposure to energy imports. The pair traded sideways for most of the APAC session, given the indecisive mood in Japan; although, it gradually edged higher as domestic sentiment stabilised.
• Antipodeans are mixed, the AUD mildly outperforms amid gains in copper and gold prices and as recent inflationary concerns spurred some outside bets for a rate hike by the RBA this month. AUD/USD trimmed gains after hitting an intraday peak of 0.7047 (vs low 0.7015). NZD/USD hit a current low of 0.5881 (vs high 0.5916), with the 200 DMA (0.5876).

Central Banks

• BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said Japan is seeing inflation in terms of rising consumer prices, adds BoJ is keeping monetary conditions accommodative and gradually adjusting degree of monetary accommodation. Will continue to scrutinise market moves and their impact on the economy and prices. Rising import costs from a weak yen may affect inflation trends. BoJ policy is not aimed at FX rates, yet FX shifts impact inflation and the economy.
• ECB's Escriva said it is highly unlikely the ECB touches rates at its next meeting.
• ECB's Sleijpen said the ECB policy is still in a good place and data dependent.
• PBoC Governor said the central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools including interest rates and RRR cuts; PBoC said China has no intention to, not necessary to use FX rate to gain trade competitiveness.

Fixed Income

• USTs are lower. US paper spent much of the overnight session trading sideways, alongside weakness across the crude complex. However, as energy prices turned positive – the benchmark also dipped off best levels in the European morning. The geopolitical situation remains unchanged, with missiles being launched from both sides – but updates related to the Strait of Hormuz helped to improve sentiment, including; a) China is in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz, b) US allowed India to purchase Russian oil for 30-days. USTs now trade at the lower end of a 112-03 to 112-14+ range.
• Bunds follow peers, for the same reasons as above, and currently towards the bottom end of a 126.96 to 127.32 range. European newsflow has seen a few ECB speakers take to the wires, to generally touch on the Iran situation, whilst Escriva said it is “highly unlikely” that the ECB touches rates at it next meeting. From a yield perspective, the 10yr yield now trades at 2.868% (vs YTD high at 2.909%). Thereafter, 2.938%, a peak spurred by the mini-banking crisis surrounding the collapse of First Brands.
• Gilts underperform, lower by around 75 ticks and trades at the bottom end of a 90.43 to 91.25 range. Underperformance which can be explained by, a) net-importer of energy, b) BoE rate cut expectations entirely priced out for the year; pre-war pricing indicated a cut in either March or April. A lot of focus has been on the front-end Gilt situation, with the 2yr yield now surging beyond 3.90%, to now approach the 4% mark from mid-October 2025 – back where traders were increasingly sceptical of Chancellor Reeves and her Autumn Budget.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain firmer, though are off their best levels seen yesterday, which saw Brent firmer by 4.9%, marking the highest close since the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran began. As the conflict reaches its seventh day, there’s been little sign of a reprieve following comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister via NBC News that Iran is ready for a US ground invasion of the country, with further comments this morning via Al Arabiya where the FM said that Iran has no choice but to continue fighting. WTI and Brent are trading in the upper end of USD 78.24-82.93/bbl and 83.16-86.35/bbl, ranges respectively.
• In the precious metals space, spot gold briefly reclaimed the USD 5,100/oz level after facing pressure yesterday, when reports indicated the NBP is considering gold sales for defence funding, which saw the yellow metal fall below the USD 5000/oz mark. A slightly softer dollar and the Iranian conflict boosted haven appeal for gold during the APAC session. However, as the European session gets underway, the yellow metal has slipped below USD 5100/oz due to recent USD strength as the USD continues to be the preferred haven amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. XAU and XAG are trading within the upper end of USD 5066.93-5143.84/oz and 81.80-84.76/oz, ranges respectively.
• Base metals have rebounded from the prior day's trough, largely underpinned by firmer APAC stocks. However, copper prices have seen slight pressure since the European session began, tracking headwind in European equities, thus weighing down the red metal. 3M LME copper trades within the lower end of a USD 12.87-12.91k/t range.
• US-sanctioned gas tanker reportedly transited the Strait of Hormuz this morning, according to Bloomberg; The Danuta I, sailed under the flag of Palau.
• US has issued a temporary 30-day waiver to allow sale of Russian oil currently stranded at sea to India, according to a report citing two officials. Officials say general licence only authorises transactions involving Russian oil already stranded at sea, unlikely to provide significant financial benefit to Russia.
• Trump admin reportedly rules out deploying Treasury Department to trade oil futures for now amid belief that it will have a limited meaningful effect, Bloomberg sources report.
• Japan is reportedly considering a release from its national oil stockpile, even without coordinated international action, Kyodo reported.
• Gold is being sold at a discount of as much as USD 30/oz in Dubai, Bloomberg reported citing sources; due to elevated shipping and insurance costs.
• Qatar Energy Minister al-Kaabi cautions that the Middle East conflict could cause all Gulf energy producers to have to shut production within weeks, increasing oil to USD 150/bbl, FT reported.
• India has asked all its refiners to ⁠maximise ⁠production of liquefied petroleum gas and make the fuel available only to three state-run ⁠companies - Indian Oil (IOCL IS), HPCL (HPCL IS) and BPCL (BPCL IS), a ⁠government cited by ET order showed.
• Reliance (REL IS) is looking to buy Russian oil after the US granted India a licence to temporarily buy cargoes, Bloomberg reported citing sources.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said oil appears to have pretty much stabilised, and further action to reduce pressure on oil is coming, also said Iran wants to ‘make a deal’ to end the conflict.
• Iran reportedly targeted US bases in Kuwait with drones, according to Iranian State Media; Iran’s army says drone attacks against US bases in Kuwait to continue in the coming hours.
• Iran to use newer missiles in the coming days, Fars News reported.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth said US has just begun to fight in Iran and that Iran is wrong in its calculations if it thinks we can't continue the war. Firepower used in Iran is to increase significantly.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said it has decided to temporarily suspend services connecting the Middle East to the far East and Europe; decision has been taken as a precautionary measure.
• Iranian Foreign Minister said Iran has no choice but to continue fighting, Al Arabiya reported.
• US and Israel have increased airstrikes on Iran’s border with Iraq as US President Trump called on the Kurdish minority there to rise up against Iran's government, according to Washington Post.
• Satellite imagery taken Tuesday shows extensive damage to Iran’s Khojir missile production site, according to Washington Post.
• US Central Command Commander said our operation against Iran is going well and we are moving at a fast pace. said:. Ballistic missile attacks by Iran have decreased by 90% since day one. As we transition to the next phase of the operation, we will dismantle Iran's missile production capability.
• US House votes 219-212 to reject the war powers resolution on Iran.
• Foreign ministers of Arab League member states will hold an emergency meeting on Sunday to discuss Iran’s attacks on several countries in the region, WSJ reported. The meeting will be held via video conference, was requested by Saudi Arabia, according to Arab sources.
• Israeli PM's aide said "so far the operation is proceeding as planned; we are seeing the first cracks in the regime, but patience is needed"; adds that US President Trump and Israeli President Netanyahu speak daily.
• Republicans are preparing to confront a huge price tag for the Middle East war following closed-door briefings which detailed the fast consumption of munitions and lack of any firm deadline for the campaign, Politico reported citing sources. Senior Republicans expect the administration to request tens of billions of dollars, with some lawmakers hearing estimates that the Pentagon is spending as much as USD 2bln/day.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.3%, prior 0%
• 8:30 am: United States Jan Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0%, prior 0%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 55k, prior 130k
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -1.5k, prior 5k
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
• 7:30 am: United States Fed’s Waller on Bloomberg TV
• 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Daly on CNBC
• 9:50 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV
• 10:15 am: United States Fed’s Daly & Paulson Participate in Panel Discussion
• 11:30 am: United States Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Policy and Outlook
• 11:30 am: United States Fed’s Miran on CNBC
• 1:20 pm: United States Fed’s Collins Delivers Keynote Address
• 1:30 pm: United States Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Monetary Policy Forum
• 3:10 pm: United States Fed’s Hammack Appears on Bloomberg TV

Main Rating Changes:

DB's Jim Reid concldues the overnight wrap

There's not much synchronisation in markets at the moment as we welcome in another payrolls Friday today. This one will be obviously overshadowed by events in the Middle East. Indeed, the market selloff resumed over the last 24 hours, with equities and bonds posting fresh declines as the war in the Middle East showed no sign of ending. That’s raising fears about a more protracted conflict, with investors increasingly alarmed that the oil price spike will become entrenched, pushing up inflation around the world. Indeed, Brent crude was up another +4.93% yesterday to $85.41/bbl, closing at its highest level since mid-2024. And in turn, that’s meant investors have kept pricing out the chance of further rate cuts, leading to another spike in bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, 10yr bund yields (+9.0bps) posted their biggest daily jump in exactly a year, back when the debt brake reforms were announced. There has been some respite in the Asia session as there are some hopes that the US is looking at options to address the energy price spike.

The reality is though that we continue to trade competing headlines, with risk appetite swinging back and forth over the past 24 hours. At the outset yesterday, there was actually some optimism after Iran’s IRNA reported that the deputy foreign minister said they were ready to get rid of their uranium stockpile in the US talks, “provided we get something good in return”. However, any optimism that some kind of negotiated settlement could be enroute faded as the session went on, with signs that, if anything, the conflict was spreading. In fact, Azerbaijan was the latest country to be hit by Iranian drones, and their Defense Ministry said that “These acts of aggression will not go unanswered”. And elsewhere across the region, a refinery was struck in Bahrain and the US evacuated its embassy in Kuwait, while the UAE told Abu Dhabi residents to seek immediate shelter. Around the same time Trump suggested he wanted a say in the Iran leadership succession which potentially complicates prospects of a diplomatic resolution. And Iran’s Foreign Minister said that it currently saw no reason to engage in talks with the US.

We did see some improvement in market sentiment late in the US session, as Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said that the administration is looking at options to address the spike in oil and gasoline prices, with Reuters reporting that this could include potential action involving the oil futures market. Later in the evening the US issued a 30-day waiver for Indian purchases of Russian oil. According to Treasury Secretary Bessent, the measure is aimed at Russian oil that is already stranded at sea, so should be viewed as more of a short-term relief for Asian refiners. Coupled with Burgum’s comments, this has supported some reversal in oil price gains overnight, with Brent down -0.94% to $84.61/bbl as I type. S&P 500 futures (+0.22%) are a touch higher, while the dollar index is down -0.37% after yesterday’s +0.55% gain.
But net net, it’s been only a partial offset from yesterday’s news flow that saw Brent crude (+4.93%) rise to $85.41/bbl, whilst WTI (+8.51%) rose to $81.01/bbl, its biggest increase since May 2020. What’s been notable is that investors are increasingly pricing in an extended conflict, and we can see that from energy futures further out the curve. For instance, the Brent crude oil future for 12 months’ time was up another +1.58% yesterday to $69.90/bbl, which is their biggest increase so far this week. So in other words, there’s growing doubt that this is going to be over quickly.

With oil prices continuing to rise, investors grew more doubtful about central bank rate cuts this year, with the prospect of hikes even coming into view. That was particularly clear for the ECB, where a hike by December moved up to a 63% chance by the close, which is the first time in 2026 that it’s been above 50%. A 55% probability of a cut was priced in as recently as last Friday. So that contributed to a sharp selloff for European sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (+9.0bps), OATs (+11.7bps) and BTPs (+13.2bps) all moving higher. Meanwhile, ECB officials struck a watchful tone over the situation, with Banque de France Governor Villeroy saying he didn’t see any reason today to raise rates, while ECB Vice President de Guindos said an extended war could raise inflation expectations and prompt a change in the policy stance.

It was a similar story in the US, where markets are now pricing in just 40bps of Fed cuts by December, the fewest so far this year. That came as Fed officials acknowledged the potential for inflation to rise, with Richmond Fed President Barkin saying “Gas prices, obviously, if they’re up, that is inflationary”. And remember that core PCE was already 3.0% before this latest shock, so investors have become increasingly sceptical that the Fed will be able to deliver rapid rate cuts under a new Chair. In addition, the latest weekly initial jobless claims were slightly beneath expectations, at 213k in the week ending Feb 28 (vs. 215k expected), so that added to the optimism ahead of today's jobs report. And we saw more positive comments on the labour market from Fed Vice Chair Bowman, who said it showed more “signs of stabilizing”. So collectively, that data and the latest rise in oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 2yr yield (+3.1bps) up to 3.58%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.9bps) moved up to 4.14%.

The US labour market will remain in the spotlight today, as we’ll also be getting the latest jobs report for February. In terms of what to expect, our US economists think that payrolls will be up +30k, coming down from the 13-month high of +130k in January. Then for unemployment, they see that remaining at 4.3%, but they note that carries elevated risks in both directions given that the BLS will implement their annual population controls. For more details, click here for their preview.

For equities, it was another rough day as fears mounted about a sustained oil shock. So the S&P 500 (-0.56%) moved back into negative territory for 2026, though it did recover from an intra-day low of -1.44% after the news that the US could intervene in energy markets.  Interestingly, software and services stocks were the standout outperformer (+1.84%), with that component of the index hitting a one-month high. This included a +1.59% gain for Oracle as Bloomberg reported that it is planning a round of job cuts. By contrast the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell -1.17% as Bloomberg reported that US officials were mulling regulations that would require approval for exports of AI chips to anywhere in the world. And it was a rough session more broadly, with consumer staples (-2.27%) and materials (-2.43%) stocks leading on the downside in the S&P amid the concern over energy costs. There were even bigger declines in Europe given their greater exposure to any energy shock. So the STOXX 600 (-1.29%) fell back, alongside declines for the DAX (-1.61%), the CAC 40 (-1.49%) and the FTSE 100 (-1.45%).

In Asia, the Nikkei (+0.51%) is recovering from initial losses but is still on course for a weekly decline exceeding -5.5%. Meanwhile, Chinese related stocks are making gains, with the Hang Seng (+1.85%) leading the way as it benefits from a rally in recently weakened technology shares, while the CSI (+0.20%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) are also experiencing modest increases. The KOSPI has recovered from earlier larger losses and is -0.15%, but still heading towards a weekly drop of more than -10%, and the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.03%) is trading notably lower, on track for a weekly loss of approximately -4.0%.

Finally, this weekend, there’s a German state election taking place in Baden-Württemberg, which will be the first of five regional elections this year. Our economists in Germany have a preview of the votes (link here), where they outline why the election outcomes matter for the stability of the Merz government. They point out that victories for the governing parties might positively impact reform momentum at the federal level over the spring/early summer. But they also point out that heavy losses have been a catalyst in the past for early federal elections, as seen in 2005 (after the SPD lost the key state of North-Rhine Westphalia) and in 2024 (after a series of electoral losses for the FDP).

Looking at the day ahead, the main data highlight will be the US jobs report for February, but we’ll also get US retail sales for January and German factory orders for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly, Paulson, Collins and Hammack, long with the ECB’s Cipollone and Schnabel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 08:28

Senate Democrats Introduce Bill To Break Up Major Meatpacking Companies

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and 12 other senators introduced legislation on March 5 that would force the nation’s largest meatpackers to break up their operations across beef, pork, and poultry, in the latest push in the Democratic affordability agenda heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) speaks at a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 14, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act would make it illegal for a major meatpacking company to control more than one type of meat, impose concentration caps on beef markets, and give the Federal Trade Commission authority to order divestitures of plants and facilities.

The bill would also bar foreign-controlled meatpacking companies, including Brazil-based JBS, from operating in the United States.

Schumer framed the legislation as a direct response to rising grocery costs, citing federal data showing a 16 percent increase in beef prices over the past year.

“The pernicious stranglehold of the meatpacking monopoly has weakened our supply chains and price gouged consumers at the grocery store,” Schumer said in a statement.

“Democrats are going to do what [President] Donald Trump refuses to do: put the affordability crisis front and center, every day, all year long.”

The bill is cosponsored by Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rubén Gallego (D-Ariz.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). No Republican senators have signed on.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Senate Agriculture Committee to ask whether there is Republican support for the legislation but did not receive a response by publication time.

Currently, four companies control roughly 85 percent of the U.S. beef market, 67 percent of the pork market, and more than 60 percent of the chicken processing market, according to data cited in the legislation and by the White House in its own criticism of the industry. Four decades ago, the top four beef packers controlled about 36 percent of the market, according to the bill’s text.

The concentration of the meatpacking industry has drawn scrutiny from both parties. In November 2025, President Donald Trump directed the Department of Justice to investigate the Big Four meatpackers for potential collusion and price fixing, saying that “action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat illegal monopolies.”

Under the proposed legislation, the Federal Trade Commission would develop divestiture plans within 120 days.

A separate provision would require foreign-controlled meatpacking companies to divest their U.S. operations. It specifically names JBS, whose parent company paid more than $280 million in 2020 to settle Justice Department charges related to bribery of foreign government officials. The bill also calls for a study of other foreign-owned processors, including Chinese-owned Smithfield Foods.

The Small Business Administration would be authorized to provide loans and technical assistance to farmers’ cooperatives and small businesses looking to acquire divested facilities.

At a roundtable hosted by Senate Democrats last week, several farming and advocacy groups voiced support for antitrust action in the sector.

“Unpredictable trade policies and corporate consolidation are squeezing family farmers on one end and consumers on the other,” said Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union.

Joe Maxwell, president of the Farm Action Fund, said, “When the same handful of firms dominate beef, pork, and chicken, competition breaks down, leaving farmers with too few buyers and families paying more.”

Mike Callicrate, a rancher and member of Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America, a cattle producers’ trade association, said it is “past time to enforce anti-trust laws and break up the meat monopolies like Congress did in the 1920s.”

The meat industry pushed back sharply. The Meat Institute, a trade association representing companies that process the majority of red meat and turkey in the United States, called the bill “absurd” and said it would raise costs, not lower them.

“If the Senator is trying to make meat and poultry more affordable for consumers, this is the wrong approach,“ said Julie Anna Potts, president and CEO of the Meat Institute. ”It will have the opposite effect.”

Potts said the bill ignores market realities, noting that the U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest level in 75 years and that beef packers have recently experienced record losses of more than $350 per head. She also questioned the feasibility of forced divestitures, asking who would have the capital and expertise to buy and operate the facilities.

“The ensuing chaos and likely significant drop in meat production will upset delicate supply and demand forces, ultimately forcing retail and food service to hike consumer prices,” Potts said.

“It comes at exactly the wrong time, when food prices are already too high for many American families.”

She said the bill “incentivizes beef and pork packing to leave the U.S. for foreign countries.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 08:05

The US Leads The World In The Weight-Loss Injection Boom

Novo Nordisk’s obesity-drug franchise has surged at a remarkable pace. In just four years, revenue from its weight-management treatments ballooned roughly tenfold - from about $1.3 billion in 2021 to approximately $12.4 billion in 2025. The growth has been fueled largely by Wegovy, the company’s blockbuster weight-loss drug built around the active ingredient semaglutide and marketed as a once-weekly injection.

Semaglutide itself was originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes and continues to be sold under the brand name Ozempic for that purpose. The primary difference between the two products lies in dosage. As Statista notes, Wegovy is formulated at higher semaglutide levels for weight management, while Ozempic is designed for blood-sugar control in diabetic patients. In practice, however, Ozempic has frequently been prescribed off-label for weight loss - a practice that is restricted or prohibited in several European Union countries.

Regardless of branding, the United States has emerged as Novo Nordisk’s most important market. According to the company’s 2025 annual report, the U.S. accounts for the overwhelming share of sales for both Ozempic and Wegovy. For drugs marketed specifically for weight loss, more than 60% of global revenue comes from the American market - a reflection of both the country’s large pharmaceutical sector and its high obesity rates, which have helped make the U.S. the epicenter of the global GLP-1 boom.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 05:45

'Mr. Gold' Warns Of 'System Reset' As Silver Lights Fuse Of Derivatives Time-Bomb

Authored by Greg Hunter via usawatchdog.com,

Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) predicted that by March, silver would likely suffer a failure to deliver physical metal at COMEX. In other words, demand for physical silver will swamp the existing supply. The math is scary and simple, and Holter breaks it down, “The registered inventory at COMEX in silver is 86 million ounces. On the second day of March, there are already 52 million ounces of silver standing for delivery. That leaves 30 million to 35 million ounces unspoken for. . .. This looks dicey. If they have 52 million ounces standing for delivery now, where is it going to be at the end of the month? If silver fails to deliver, then what you are going to have in the gold market is buyers stepping up that normally would not even buy and ask for delivery. . .. The bottom line is if silver fails to deliver, gold will fail to deliver in 24 hours. Once that happens, then confidence breaks. . .. You are looking at two quadrillion dollars in derivatives in a global economy with $350 trillion in debt with an underlying $100 trillion annual GDP. The math does not work. I think silver, and I have said this for many years, silver will be the spark or the fuse that lights off gold, which then lights off the derivatives time bomb. Warren Buffett calls derivatives weapons of mass financial destruction.”

Mr. Gold thinks, “When the system resets, governments will start a money print fest that will touch off global hyperinflation. . .. The pure math of debt outstanding is that it cannot be repaid in current terms. It will be hyperinflation of the things we need and hyper-deflation of the things we already have. . .. How is somebody going to buy your house if the capital is not there? If the capital is not there, then the price is going to have to come down. . .. It is highly likely that silver will kick off the demise of the financial system.”

Mr. Gold thinks this kind of global debt will go bad fast. Holter warns, “When this thing cascades and collapses, you are either in place, or you are out of place. If you are out of place, you will not be able to repair your mistake. It will be a lifetime mistake to have not gotten ready. Let me just say there is a difference in being early and being wrong. In 2000 to 2005, if you were buying gold or you were buying silver, you were an idiot, a complete idiot, and people thought you walked around with a tin foil hat on. . .. Now, we are at the point where the best place to have invested your money since January 2000 would be in gold or silver. When Noah was running around building his ark, he looked wrong. He was not wrong–he was just early."

Watch:

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 05:00

Stop The War... Because 'Global Warming'!!!

Via notalotofpeopleknowthat blog,

Apparently our climate propagandists are not bothered about the Mad Mullahs!

War makes climate change worse in many ways, and vice versa.

The US-Israel attacks on Iran that began over the weekend have killed hundreds of civilians and sent oil prices soaring, but this war also promises to unleash massive amounts of planet-warming gases at a time when civilization is already hurtling toward irreversible climate breakdown.

Not every story about the Iran war needs to make the climate connection, but climate change is essential context if the public and policymakers are to understand the full dimensions of this conflict.

Join Covering Climate Now and a panel of experts for a discussion about the geopolitical and climate implications of the war on Iran, which has one of the world’s largest oil reserves.

Their only concern is that a war might put a bit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere!

They would no doubt be much happier with a nuclear winter!

At least it will lower global warming.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 04:15