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SpaceX Earnings Preview: Equity Sees $125 Billion, Credit Sees 83 Cents

SpaceX Earnings Preview: Equity Sees $125 Billion, Credit Sees 83 Cents

Today after the close, SpaceX (SPCX) reports its second quarter as a public company, a day ahead of Tesla and (as Deutsche Bank puts it) "surprisingly early." The first one did not go well: the stock slid despite a big revenue beat and closed down 14% the next day, wiping out some $225 billion in market value.

This time, the sellside is mostly looking past the quarter and straight at 2027. Nobody more so than Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu, who in his preview note "Compute-driven state of mind" (available to pro subs) lifts his 2027 forecasts to $125 billion in revenue and $84 billion in EBITDA, materially above consensus of $108 billion and $65 billion. The catch, which Yu flags himself, is that those numbers are "underpinned by > $200bn in capex."

And that's where the other half of the SpaceX story comes in. While equity analysts debate how high 2027 can go, the company's 6.65% notes due 2056 just slumped to a lifetime low of 83.3 cents on the dollar, down from 98.83 at issue in June, and SpaceX's five-year CDS spreads blew out to a record high earlier this month.

In other words, the stock market is pricing the upside, and the bond market is pricing the bill.

The Quarter: In Line, With "Potential Upside In Profitability"

Start with the near term. Deutsche expects an in-line print, "with potential upside in profitability." Yu models Q3 revenue of $12.6 billion (+127% YoY), a gross margin of around 59% and EBITDA of over $6.6 billion. The engine is AI, which "is benefiting from a full-quarter contribution from cloud hosting, boosting revenue by almost 3x sequentially to ~$6bn." AI solutions & infrastructure alone is expected to jump from $2.2 billion in Q2 to $6.0 billion, which means the AI segment would account for just over half of total revenue at the business formerly known as a rocket company.

Elsewhere, consumer broadband subscribers should end the quarter at 13.5 million (vs. 12.0 million in Q2), while ARPU slides another $2 to $64, giving connectivity revenue of nearly $5 billion, up 60% YoY. The Space segment, the one in the company's name, is expected to shrink 22% YoY on twelve external Falcon 9 launches. As for the cash, Yu forecasts $19 billion in capex "mainly directed at AI compute," taking capacity to 1.8GW, and leading to free cash flow burn of $14 billion, in one quarter.

Here is the full breakdown vs. consensus:

Note that Deutsche is slightly below the Street on Q3 revenue ($12.63 billion vs. $12.89 billion) and broadband subs (13.5 million vs. 14.2 million), but slightly above on EBITDA margin (52.6% vs. 51.4%). Options are pricing a move of about 7.8% in either direction, which is a bit more than half of what the stock actually did after Q2.

How High Can 2027 Go?

This is where Deutsche gets interesting. In Yu's view, "the largest swing factor in respect to forecasts will be compute deployment." Management is targeting more than 2GW exiting 4Q26, which DB thinks is "doable," and then 5-10GW exiting 2027. DB models toward the low end, at about 6GW, and lays out a line of sight into 5-7GW of power over the next couple of years: 1.9GW of Doosan turbines, 1.2GW from the Southaven plant's 41 turbines, 0.7-1.1GW from the APR acquisition, 900MW or more leased through the Stateline JV, plus the TVA grid supply and backup turbines at Colossus 1 and up to another gigawatt "from other sources." (We assume SpaceX will need all of it to keep the Nvidia chips it is borrowing to buy switched on.)

Put it together, and the bank's math says the neocloud business alone can generate $70-90 billion of revenue in 2027, "depending on timing and pricing dynamics." For context, SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue was $18.7 billion. And the result is a 2027 forecast that is now 16% above consensus on revenue and 29% above on EBITDA:

Deutsche isn't even the most aggressive on compute. Goldman's Eric Sheridan, in his own SpaceX Q3'26 preview earlier this month (also available to pro subs), forecasts SpaceX scaling to ~2.4GW of AI compute by year-end, ~7.0GW by the end of 2027 and ~10.6GW by the end of 2028:

Goldman models $85.5 billion in 2027 AI solutions & infrastructure revenue, of which $45.5 billion comes from hosting deals on just ~1GW of contracted capacity. As we noted when we dug through Goldman's neocloud rate card, most of those hosting deals are "90-day cancellable on both sides." Which is probably worth keeping in mind when somebody extrapolates them to 2029.

Speaking of extrapolating, Musk himself already raised the bar on the Q2 call:

Evercore's Kutgun Maral, for one, expects an annual run rate of $104 billion by year-end and 2.3GW of compute (vs. the Street's 2.2GW), and raised his target to $270. Deutsche keeps its Buy and $235 target, vs. Friday's close of $146.03.

The $200 Billion Footnote

Here is the full set of DB's estimate changes. Look at the bottom line of each block:

Deutsche raised 2027 revenue by $10 billion, and 2027 capex by $22 billion, to $207 billion, and 2028 capex by $40 billion to $230 billion. And while 2028 revenue barely moves ($200 billion vs. $198 billion), 2028 EPS actually dips, because, as Yu admits, "there is concern by investors that pricing could normalize in 2028-29." The bank now assumes $/GW pricing "declines by 25% to about $30bn in 2028." In other words, the compute gets more expensive to build exactly when it gets cheaper to rent.

Line up DB's own EBITDA against DB's own capex, and the problem becomes obvious:

Napkin math: under Deutsche's bullish model, capex exceeds EBITDA by about $47 billion this year, $124 billion in 2027 and $81 billion in 2028, or roughly $250 billion across three years. SpaceX ended Q2 with $100 billion in cash and marketable securities, and DB expects about $13.5 billion of that to have been burned in Q3 alone. Which means the 2027 gap by itself is bigger than the cash pile... and that gap has to be filled by someone.

That someone, of course, is the bond market.

Meanwhile, In Credit...

Regular readers will recall that SpaceX slammed head first into the bond market less than two weeks after its record $86 billion IPO, selling $25 billion of investment grade bonds which were, depending on who you asked, "4x oversubscribed." Bondholders have been underwater pretty much since the break, and on Monday the 6.65% notes of 2056 hit a new all-time low of 83.345:

At that price, the 30-year paper of a BBB-rated company that is supposedly about to post $84 billion in EBITDA yields roughly 8.1%, which is the kind of number one usually associates with the junk bond market (as we put it back in August, "SPCX bonds skeptical about the $1 trillion in revenue"). The 5.875% notes due 2036 tell the same story: per Trace, their spread was 193bps earlier this month, vs. 140bps when they were sold in June.

What changed? The record chip-collateralized loan. On Oct 6, the FT reported that SpaceX wants to raise another $40 billion, about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion of IG debt, in a deal led by Apollo, to pay for Nvidia chips. Add the $25 billion from June, and SpaceX will have borrowed (or tried to borrow) $65 billion since June, on top of the $38.4 billion in debt it reported as of June 30. The next day, five-year CDS jumped as much as 16.7bps to about 197.6bps, the highest since the swaps started actively trading in June (when they were around 110bps):

Of course, we covered it at the time:

Barclays' credit analysts, led by Andrew Keches, argued that an SPV structure might be good for SpaceX in the long run by reducing the amount of debt at the parent company, but warned that in the near term the coming supply could put pressure on the company's existing bonds.

Well, they were right about the near term: less than two weeks later, the bonds are 1.4 points lower than where they were on Oct 7, and DB's revised capex forecast suggests $40 billion won't be the last ask. Or as Coherence Credit's Sal Naro told Bloomberg, speaking of AI debt in general: "This is unprecedented debt supply with no real ending in sight."

None of this will surprise those who have been reading us since last October, when we first warned that AI had quietly become a debt bubble too, and that the debt would sooner or later have to compete with everyone else (including Uncle Sam) for the same duration buyers. SpaceX, which Musk said in December had been cash-flow positive for years and didn't really need anyone's money, is now one of the biggest borrowers in that line.

What To Watch Today After The Close

Deutsche's own list of "other areas of focus" is a good checklist:

  • AI: neocloud pricing and new contracts, the Cursor contribution, Grok Bot adoption, and the data center capex outlook (read: any hint that 2027 capex starts with a "2").
  • Launch: timing of the next few launches after Flight 14; Flight 15 looks set for mid-/late November, though DB doesn't expect a second-stage catch.
  • Connectivity: after the $8 billion Grain spectrum deal, "additional color on management's next move(s) in the US (build vs. buy)," which is something the wireless carriers will be listening to closely.
  • Tesla merger: DB sees the timing as "mainly a function of valuation differentials and politics (may want to avoid a potential Democrat-led administration taking over post Trump)."

To that we'd add one more: anything on financing. Specifically, whether the $40 billion Apollo deal is done, how much of it sits in an SPV, and how much more is coming. And, after today's pledge of a SpaceX share to "every kid in America," maybe also how many shares that is.

Who Blinks First?

Deutsche's long-term thesis (as well as everyone else's for that matter) is straightforward: "the endgame is to build and possess the greatest amount of compute at the lowest cost on the ground and eventually in orbit," which should eventually let SpaceX "deliver leading intelligence/inference capabilities which we think investors generally are still quite skeptical about." Yu also concedes that "the stock has increasingly traded more in line with the AI cohort as opposed to Space." Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, who has become the bank's resident in house SpaceX cheerleader and now covers only this company, thinks SpaceX "looks unusually cheap" on the forward (duh), recently described the skepticism even more vividly: asked who owned the stock, out of 40 clients "not a single hand went up." 

So who is right: the equity analysts who see 2027 EBITDA nearly 30% above consensus, or the bondholders who are demanding 8% for 30 years? Probably both, in their own way.

The upside case is real, but every dollar of DB's 2027 EBITDA comes with roughly two and a half dollars of capex attached, and that capex will be funded by the same creditors who just marked the 2056s to 83. If today's call brings a higher capex number and no clarity on financing, we suspect the bond market will be the one setting the tone, just as it did after Q2. Then again, Musk has never been shy about telling bears that he "tried to warn them," and as of Friday's close the stock was still 8% above its $135 IPO price. The bonds, meanwhile, are almost 16% below theirs.

Much more in the full Deutsche Bank "Compute-driven state of mind" note and Goldman's "SpaceX Q3'26 preview," both available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 15:45

CME Plans World's First Tungsten Futures As Booming Missile Demand May Spark Severe 2030 Shortage

CME Plans World's First Tungsten Futures As Booming Missile Demand May Spark Severe 2030 Shortage

CME Group plans to launch the first tungsten futures contract as deepening resource nationalism, Chinese export restrictions, and rising demand from the global rearmament cycle intensify Western governments' focus on securing conflict-free materials and highlight the industrial base's urgent need to hedge future price risk. These new contracts would introduce exchange-traded forward pricing to a market that currently relies heavily on spot prices and has limited visibility into future pricing.

Trading is expected to begin in early 1Q27, subject to regulatory review. The contract will be settled against Fastmarkets' Western benchmark for ammonium paratungstate, or APT, the raw material and commercial precursor for almost all downstream tungsten products. 

For miners, manufacturers, and trading desks, the potential benefits extend well beyond hedging. A liquid futures curve could show how the market participants view the worsening global supply constraints for the critical metal. That would add a new forward-looking dimension to spot prices, allowing participants greater visibility into pricing months and years out. 

"Tungsten sits at the intersection of advanced manufacturing, semiconductor technologies and geopolitics, and our clients are increasingly seeking to hedge their exposure and improve price transparency," said Jin Hennig, CME Group's managing director and global head of metals.

"CME Group Tungsten futures will join our growing suite of critical minerals and energy transition metal products, providing clients more opportunities to manage risk as global supply chains restructure," Hennig added.

Fastmarkets CEO Raju Daswani pointed out, "Growing volatility and concentrated supply are increasing the need for transparent, trusted price benchmarks in the tungsten market," adding, "The launch of this contract, based on Fastmarkets' tungsten APT assessment, is a significant step in the market's development, connecting physical-market price discovery with new opportunities to manage price risk." 

Fastmarkets' Western APT benchmark surged after China, in early 2025, restricted the flow of the critical metal to Western defense and industrial companies, sending prices as high as $3,000 a ton. Spot prices have since moved lower to around $2,775. 

CME's announcement coincided with Almonty Industries' Investor Day at Nasdaq in Midtown Manhattan, where the tungsten producer presented to analysts from Oppenheimer, Stifel, Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, and other firms.

CEO Lewis Black and the management team outlined a constructive operating outlook for the miner's South Korean, Spanish, and Portuguese mines, along with updates on expansion projects and additional supply sources.

Almonty's investment case centers around its move to be one of the largest conflict-free tungsten miners (ex-China) for the West. Its operating assets and expansion pipeline position the miner as a tungsten lifeline for the rearmament cycle.  

Black told investors that constrained Western tungsten supplies are strengthening Almonty's commercial position, supporting improved offtake terms as Sangdong ramps Phase 1 production and advances its Phase 2 expansion.

Sangdong's Phase I is designed to process 640,000 tons of ore annually. Phase II is planned to double that capacity, with equipment ordering and underground planning already underway.

Several projects offer additional growth potential:

  • Rwanda: A planned joint venture, to be owned 75% by Almonty and 25% by the government, would initially source and process material from local producers. Management views this as a faster route to incremental supply while longer-term mining projects advance.
  • Panasqueira: Drilling for the Portuguese mine's Level 4 expansion is expected to finish by year-end. Management is also evaluating the recovery of tungsten and other metals from existing tailings.
  • Los Santos: Tailings processing has produced encouraging laboratory and pilot results, supported by an offtake agreement with a price floor. Commercial viability remains unproven.
  • Montana: Existing permits and nearby infrastructure support development potential, but detailed planning remains underway. The presentation did not establish a firm production timetable.
  • Sangdong molybdenum: Additional drilling is intended to validate historical data and support an updated technical report, providing a separate development opportunity beneath the tungsten deposit.

"Almonty remains one of the key solutions to meeting western tungsten demand after China's exit from the market and the company's impressive production ramp is still unfolding with prices just off record highs. We are updating our target price to $21 given the push-out of Sangdong shipments but remain Buy rated," Stifel materials analyst Brock Cannon wrote in a note after the investor meeting. 

Jefferies chemicals and materials analyst Laurence Alexander said the Sangdong ramp remains a near-term catalyst. He indicated that the early January ban on US defense companies sourcing tungsten from foreign adversaries or conflict areas "represents a clear pivot point in demand, which should align favorably with the Sangdong production ramp."

Alexander continued, "The US will prohibit defense contractors from acquiring tungsten, tungsten metal powder, and tungsten heavy alloys mined, refined, or produced in China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea. With only ~13% of global production from conflict-free zones, the qualified supply pool is likely smaller than the headline deficit implies. Should a similar EU measure be implemented, Western premiums likely widen further."

The key takeaway from the new CME contracts, set to begin trading early next year, is a forward curve that will provide the first clear view of how the market interprets the shortage of this critical material.

A Financial Times story published overnight adds to the mounting global news coverage, suggesting that spot prices for critical materials remain disconnected from reality, as China's resource nationalism has left Japan just "months" away from "running out of critical rare earths."

We'll leave readers with the most impactful chart from Almonty's investor deck, presented to analysts yesterday. It shows a widening structural tungsten deficit emerging around 2030.

In that case, it's all about "owning the bottlenecks." The mining sector has been de-rated in the second half of the year, but it will bottom out at some point, and the theme of owning the top producers will reemerge amid the rearmament cycle ramping up. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 15:45

Is YouTube Still Running Cover For Fauci?

Is YouTube Still Running Cover For Fauci?

Authored by Peter Navarro via The Epoch Times,

Anthony Stephen Fauci harmed millions of Americans by mismanaging the pandemic. Google’s YouTube and its woke censors helped him every step of the way.

The pandemic is over. The censorship is not. YouTube still suppresses speech that threatens Dr. Fauci and the failed policies he built. The latest example is an interview I gave to Epoch Times Senior Editor Jan Jekielek about my new book, “Why Fauci Must Rot in Prison.”

YouTube runs its censorship under what it calls the “Four R’s of Responsibility”: Remove, Raise, Reduce, Reward. It did not Remove the interview; a takedown would have made news. It chose the quiet R: Reduce.

Here is what Reduce looks like. The interview premiered on Oct. 13. Five days later it had 21,248 views. The 10 full episodes of Mr. Jekielek’s American Thought Leaders posted before mine averaged about 170,000 views; the five immediately before it averaged 73,000. In the show’s China playlist, where my interview sits, the 10 prior episodes averaged 124,000. An episode with Dr. Phil posted one day ago already has 47,000—more than double mine in a fifth of the time.

This is not an unpopular video. According to Mr. Jekielek, it is performing massively on other platforms. Only on YouTube has it been wounded on arrival.

That is the YouTube black box. Nobody outside Google can see which switch was thrown, and there is a drawer full of them: pulling a video from the recommendation engine that drives most of its traffic; dropping it from the “Up Next” autoplay queue; burying it in search; withholding the notification to a channel’s 584,000 subscribers; tagging it “borderline” so it is never shown to anyone who did not already go looking; putting it in “limited state,” which strips comments, likes, and suggested videos; and demonetizing it. The video stays up, so YouTube can swear it censored nothing. It is a cell with no door.

This is the same war YouTube helped Dr. Fauci wage across every front of the pandemic. Let me be clear: Dr. Fauci was dead wrong about the lockdowns, masks, early-treatment antivirals, and the risks of the vaccines and boosters. YouTube silenced the people who were right. Americans died. Young men got myocarditis. Pregnant women may have had more miscarriages.

In April 2020, YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki told CNN that “anything that would go against World Health Organization recommendations would be a violation of our policy.” Dr. Fauci stood with the WHO. So YouTube stood with Dr. Fauci.

Lockdowns. In October 2020, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford, Sunetra Gupta of Oxford, and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard published the Great Barrington Declaration. It argued what I had argued inside the White House: general lockdowns would kill more people than they saved. Francis Collins called them “fringe epidemiologists” and ordered “a quick and devastating published takedown.” Dr. Fauci wrote in his diary on Oct. 15, 2020, in his favorite words: “I blew away the Great Barrington Declaration.” YouTube finished the job. In April 2021, it deleted a Florida roundtable in which Gov. Ron DeSantis sat with Mr. Bhattacharya, Mr. Kulldorff, Ms. Gupta, and Scott Atlas, because the panel said children should not be masked.

Masks. On March 8, 2020, Dr. Fauci told 60 Minutes, “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask.” Then came mandates, then two masks at once. When Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a physician, said in August 2021 that cloth masks do not prevent infection, YouTube deleted the video and suspended him for a week.

Antivirals. I put more than 60 million doses of hydroxychloroquine into the Strategic National Stockpile. YouTube removed testimony from Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) December 2020 hearing on early treatment, then in June 2021, suspended him for a week for saying hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin were safe generics that deserved study.

Vaccines. On Sept. 29, 2021, YouTube banned any claim that an approved vaccine is dangerous and began terminating channels wholesale. That fall, Dr. Fauci’s own diary recorded “a lack of a lot of data for safety among young individuals particularly in the context of myocarditis,” while the White House chief of staff was “very much intense on getting this approval through.” Eight months earlier, he had written that post-dose fever could “theoretically” be associated with first-trimester miscarriage. Say that on YouTube in 2021, and your channel was gone.

In my book, I lay out, issue by issue, that I was right and Dr. Fauci was wrong. YouTube made sure the country heard only him.

YouTube has already confessed. On Sept. 23, 2025, Alphabet’s lawyers wrote the House Judiciary Committee that Biden officials “conducted repeated and sustained outreach” and “continued to press the Company to remove non-violative user-generated content.” Thirteen months later, it is throttling a Fauci critic again.

It is time for the FCC to put an end, once and for all, to YouTube playing God with our lives. The blood on Dr. Fauci’s hands has spilled onto YouTube. YouTube has made a mockery of Google’s old motto, “Don’t be evil.” It is time to do to YouTube what YouTube has done, at such cost, to so many of us. Silence them.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 15:30

EU Accuse Trump Of Pushing Ukraine Into 'Surrender' As Witkoff Meets Zelensky In Oslo

EU Accuse Trump Of Pushing Ukraine Into 'Surrender' As Witkoff Meets Zelensky In Oslo

As President Trump ratchets the pressure on Zelensky, the expected furious voices out of the EU are at a fever pitch.

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas on Tuesday rebuked the United States amid reports Washington has cut off intelligence-sharing, and after Trump signed a waiver preventing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia from being enacted.

via Ukrainian Presdency

The White House is also demanding that Zelensky immediately halt all long-range drone strikes on Russian energy facilities.

The EU's Kallas has shot back: "American negotiators have been trying to push Ukraine into surrender for almost two years."

She alleged the US is pressing Kyiv to give in purely to Putin's terms, even as new talks among Western allies are happening in Oslo, Norway.

"Why Ukraine hasn't surrendered on Putin's terms is because Europe has been supporting Ukraine," she told the European Parliament in the fresh remarks.

She said European partners must remain at the negotiating table in order to "balance" the positions being taken by the White House. She strongly suggested these positions are being influenced by Moscow.

"Those things that they are interested in lifting sanctions, all of these things actually Europe needs to be around that table because it's European decisions," Kallas said.

Despite the obvious souring of relations between the US and Ukraine, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Volodymyr Zelensky are currently meeting in Oslo on Tuesday.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre is playing host and mediator "at a critical time for Ukraine" - a statement said.

Zelensky posted video of the initial meet and greet:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has rejected as "scandalous" some of the fresh accusations coming out of Europe, particularly the charge that Ukrainians are dying due to Washington throttling intelligence.

"I saw somebody associated with the Ukrainian government say that people in Ukraine are dying because the US is denying them information. That's scandalous. That's outrageous. That's just simply not true. That's not accurate," the secretary of state said.

* * *

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 15:00

The Simpsons Brings Back Apu As Irritable, Loud, And Unlikeable

The Simpsons Brings Back Apu As Irritable, Loud, And Unlikeable

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Simpsons has finally let the the Indian character Apu speak again after nearly a decade of silence prompted by previous accusations of 'racist stereotyping' levelled at the show all stemming from the fact that a white actor voiced the character.

However, what has now transpired perfectly illustrates what happens when producers cave to activist pressure and then overcorrect.

The once happy, lovable Kwik-E-Mart owner is now irritable, loud and unlikable, according to viewers reacting to Sunday's episode "The Revengening."

The character last spoke in the October 2017 episode "The Serfsons." He continued to appear in the background as a mute figure while the show grappled with complaints over voice actor Hank Azaria affecting an Indian accent.

Azaria told a podcast at the time that he had spoken at his son's school and encountered a 17-year-old Indian student who had never watched the show yet treated "Apu" as a slur.

"It's practically a slur at this point," Azaria said. "All he knows is that is how his people are thought of and represented to many people in this country." He continued: "I really do apologise. I know you weren't asking for that but it's important. I apologise for my part in creating that and participating in that. Part of me feels like I need to go around to every single Indian person in this country and personally apologise."

Plenty of Indian viewers rejected that framing at the time.

The pressure that produced the apology originated with Kondabolu's 2017 documentary The Problem With Apu. The film argued that the convenience-store clerk character rested on harmful stereotypes. The show made a glancing reference to the complaints in 2018, then largely parked the character.

Azaria later described the decision to stop as a collective one the production team felt was "the right thing." He continued voicing other Springfield residents while Apu stayed quiet.

Sunday's Halloween-themed episode treated the long absence as plot. A mysterious killer in a "Daft Monk" costume (a Daft Punk helmet plus monastic robe) is repeatedly killed by Springfield residents, survives, and returns a year later seeking revenge. He summons the town to City Hall, removes the helmet, and reveals himself as Apu. "I am the man you left for dead. I am the one you pretended never existed," he declares.

The character is now voiced by India-born, U.S.-raised actor Sunil Malhotra, known for animation work including The Legend of Korra and The Legend of Vox Machina.

In the episode, Apu recounts being dumped on the Island of Forgotten Garbage, healed by Dr. Nick, returning home to find his family and the Kwik-E-Mart gone, and then being ignored by everyone in town as if invisible.

Marge steps in with language that tracks the show's own earlier hesitation: "Apu, we're so sorry we left you for dead. Believe me, we wanted to do the right thing." Bart adds, "But we were so scared, and just didn't know what to do."

Homer offers a penance that doubles as a reminder of the character's previous place in town life: "You were on our bowling teams, our barbershop quartets, our dad rock cover bands. We took you for granted. I took you for granted." The sequence turns out to be a nightmare; Apu wakes in the Kwik-E-Mart with Manjula (now voiced by Janina Gavankar) and agrees to attend a Halloween party.

Showrunner Matt Selman described the approach as deliberate. "We love this character, and wanted to bring him back in a smart, 'Simpsons'-y way that allowed him to evolve," he told Variety. "We're excited by what Sunil has already brought to the role, and look forward to seeing more of Apu in the future."

Viewers who watched the episode did not share that enthusiasm. Reactions on X described the new voice as try-hard and the character as louder and much less appealing than the version that had been retired.

This is what happens when a show that once thrived on sharp, boundary-pushing satire decides every joke must first clear a committee of the professionally aggrieved.

The Simpsons built its appeal on equal-opportunity exaggeration, the willingness to mock everyone and everything without pausing to check who might claim injury on behalf of someone else.

That edge is gone. What remains is a cautious, self-flagellating version of the same program, rewritten to soothe activists who treat other people's cultures as props for their own moral status.

The result is not progress. It is a shambling remnant of the original, kept on air by people more interested in signalling their virtue than in telling a funny story.

* * *

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 14:45

Florida Issues Arrest Warrant For Former Cuban Leader Raul Castro

Florida Issues Arrest Warrant For Former Cuban Leader Raul Castro

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Florida is seeking to arrest former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over his alleged role in a conspiracy to shoot down and murder three U.S. citizens and one lawful resident aboard two civilian aircraft more than 30 years ago.

The state arrest warrant was announced Monday by Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, who accused Castro of having spies embedded in America to help carry out the shooting down of two unarmed planes operated by Brothers to the Rescue, a humanitarian organization that promotes Cubans' efforts against the country's long-standing communist regime.

The former Cuban leader, now in his mid-90s, is charged with one count of conspiracy to commit first-degree murder and also faces a parallel, federal indictment by the Department of Justice, announced May 20.

"Raúl Castro ordered the murder of four Floridians in cold blood, and Florida will never stop pursuing accountability for that communist conspiracy," Uthmeier said in a news release. "The Castro regime's spies operated in our communities, fed intelligence to Havana, and helped put civilian pilots in the crosshairs of Cuban MiGs."

The four victims in the planes shot down on Feb. 24, 1996, were Carlos Costa, Pablo Morales, Mario de la Peña, and Armando Alejandre Jr.

According to the affidavit, Castro, who was the minister of Cuba's Revolutionary Armed Forces and first vice president at the time of the incident, was the final decider in authorizing the attack, giving senior military officials an order to "shoot them down at sea when they show up, and those who have the authority are not to consult anyone."

Cuban spies operating in South Florida's Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties infiltrated the Brothers to the Rescue organization and reported their flight plans back to Cuban leaders, the news release said.

On the day of the attack, three unarmed Brothers to the Rescue aircraft departed the Opa-Locka Airport in Miami-Dade County. Once they crossed the 24th latitude line, while still outside the island-nation's territory, Cuban MiGs destroyed two of the civilian Cessnas with missiles, killing the four onboard.

"For thirty years, their families and our Cuban American community have carried this profound loss and refused to let the pursuit of justice fade," Miami-Dade Sheriff Rosie Cordero-Stutz said in the news release. "Today's action sends a clear message: the passage of time does not diminish the value of these lives or our responsibility to pursue accountability."

The news release added that the aircraft were traveling away from Cuba and received no warning before the attack.

Elements of the alleged criminal conspiracy, like the gathering of intel by stateside Cuban spies, occurred in Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties. Chief Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan of the 11th Judicial Circuit, which encompasses Miami-Dade, signed the arrest warrant.

Florida's Office of Statewide Prosecution has assumed jurisdiction of the ongoing investigation, Uthmeier said, and additional charges against Castro are possible.

"Under President [Donald] Trump's administration, we're committed to pursuing every lawful, prosecutable avenue to bring accountability, including parallel federal and state prosecutions," U.S. Attorney Jason Quiñones said in the news release.

Florida's arrest warrant against Castro joins the United States' increasing pressure campaign against Cuba's brutal communist rule, as Trump administration officials have long stated their intentions of wanting regime change on the island nation.

On Aug. 6, the State Department announced sanctions against Cuba's military.

More recently, Trump took the stage at the United Nations on Sept. 22 and called Cuba a failed state, adding that "freedom will be coming" to the island. The Cuban delegation walked out.

A week after that speech, Trump told reporters at the White House that he believed the United States and Cuba could reach an agreement, and American military action would not be necessary.

Prior to that comment, the president hinted in June that a potential Cuba operation could mirror the Caracas, Venezuela, raid on Jan. 3 to apprehend then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, both of whom are in custody in New York and pleading not guilty to a number of charges.

Cuban Americans told The Epoch Times they were hopeful for U.S. military action against their home country following the overnight operation in Caracas.

They also reacted with glee over the U.S. indictment against Castro in May.

Alina Fernández Revuelta, the daughter of Fidel Castro, welcomed the charges against her uncle.

"The charges increase pressure on a regime untouchable for decades," she told The Epoch Times in a text message. "Coming from a family directly connected to that history, you understand the weight of this moment in a different way."

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 12:15

Loop Downgrades Apple As iPhone Rebound Shipment Hopes Slide

Loop Downgrades Apple As iPhone Rebound Shipment Hopes Slide

Apple shares are down about 1% in premarket trading in New York on renewed concerns about iPhone demand.

Loop Capital technology analyst Ananda Baruah downgraded Apple from "Buy" to "Hold," citing slumping expectations that the company will recover lost iPhone shipments next year and warning that skyrocketing memory chip costs could further squeeze profit margins.

Baruah lowered his 12-month price target to $330 from $370, nearly in line with Bloomberg-tracked analyst forecasts of around $334. The new target implies roughly 4% downside from the $343 share price cited in the note.

Baruah explained the reason for the rating downgrade:

We're downgrading AAPL to Hold from Buy and lowering our PT to $330 from $370 on new iPhone data from Loop Capital Supply Chain Analyst John Donovan (Latest AAPL ASP Tracker & Build Analysis – Reported Cuts Not True – Yet?) as our "normalized" EPS is reduced to $11.00 from $12.00 (and our new PT using an AAPL median P/E of 30x is $330.) 

The gist is that when AAPL previously reduced its Sep Q & Dec Q iPhone unit ships by 10% we believed they would be in a position to make up many (if not most) of these units through CY2027 as the reductions were supply related (memory & processors) & not demand related. 

This no longer appears to be the case. Further, while not the core aspect of our call today we acknowledge then potential for GM risk as memory costs continue to increase.

The revised forecasts also reflect much lower expectations for iPhone selling prices. For next year, the analyst slashed his average selling price estimate to $1,096 from $1,235 and reduced projected iPhone revenue to about $285 billion from $315 billion.

He expects total 2027 revenue to reach $539 billion, down from $569 billion, and earnings of $9.76 a share, compared with his previous $10.11 estimate.

For the December quarter, Baruah forecasts 79 million iPhone shipments, below the consensus estimate of 85 million. He forecasts iPhone revenue of about $88.7 billion for the quarter, below Wall Street expectations of roughly $93 billion.

Baruah's note, published on Monday, builds on soft iPhone demand cited by analysts at Jefferies and other desks. There was good news last week on Duo demand, as the flurry of preorders outstripped launch inventory, pushing some orders out until January 25. But premium handsets priced at $1,000-plus and $2,000-plus are still too expensive for mass adoption. Apple's Tim Cook learned that the hard way with the $3,000-plus, goofy-looking Vision Pro. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 12:00

Mutatis Mutandis Not Ceteris Paribus

Mutatis Mutandis Not Ceteris Paribus

By Michael Every of Rabobank

2026 has seen economists and strategists forced to accept that geopolitics, rather than being the odd ‘exogenous shock’, is a structural backdrop disrupting models and markets. If an economic or market call depends on a geopolitical one, it logically requires an entirely different skillset. Of course, people adapt. Six years ago, economists and strategists busily tracked Covid infections while knowing nothing about virology or epidemiology until, fortunately(!), the virus naturally mutated into something less, not more, dangerous. Today, they Hormuz track tanker passages and/or Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. However, neither says what the geopolitical backdrop will mutate into.

The Financial Times notes, ‘Iranian hardliners say the time for nuclear weapons has come’, and the US and Israel are reportedly weighing “inevitable” strikes. Secretary of War Hegseth just made an impromptu visit to Israel as PM Netanyahu, a week before elections, reiterated he’s “ready to strike,” and Syria fears an imminent Israeli-backed Druze offensive. As China’s premier slammed “blatant” US aggression against Iran and Russia again offered to process Iranian uranium, Foreign Minister Lavrov backed Iran, and Tehran said “friendly” nations might be allowed safe passage through Hormuz while adding 122 vessels to its 'non-conformity' list. Pakistan’s army chief visits Tehran today, Egypt’s parliament delayed a vote on military support for the Saudis by a week, Qatar announced an unspecified new defence partnership, and Macron is on a 3-day visit to the Gulf, starting in Kuwait (rumoured to face a possible Iranian ground incursion) before heading to the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar: as a French diplomat says France “has to assist Gulf states”, is it Qatar’s new defence partner? Elsewhere, Turkey-Azerbaijan tensions are rising, Ethiopia threatened Eritrea, Trump says he recognises the breakaway republic of Somaliland as “a totally different country”, and 160 people are reported dead in escalating drone attacks across Sudan. So, what’s the output from modelling that all – war or peace?

Trump has partially reinstated Starlink access for Ukraine yet slammed Zelenskyy, saying “somebody else” should negotiate – and he’s ready to meet Xi and Putin next month to thrash out a deal without Kyiv or Brussels. Rumors are this could involve Europe buying Russian gas again, with the US holding shares in a new NordStream pipeline. That isn’t “strategic autonomy.” Neither is the US warning Europe if it tries to set up a rival to Starlink by freezing the US out there will be “devastating” retaliation. NATO is meanwhile making new plans for how to fight Russia, Finland ordered 1 million landmines – but the UK cut £2bn from army front line spending. So, what’s the output from modelling that all – war or peace?

Trump signaled uncertainty about meeting North. Korea’s Kim next month – perhaps because of the internet rumour that he’s dead, which would open tail risks of civil war in a hermit kingdom with nuclear weapons, if so. As Taiwan and the Philippines now build maritime cooperation in the face of Chinese pressure, the Chinese press talks about a new fleet of PLA-N drone carrier ships.

The geoeconomic knock-on effects of this backdrop are clear: Saudi Arabia has postponed its 'Davos in the desert': what other spending, and dollar recycling will it and other GCC countries have to postpone if this chaos continues? Energy prices remain high, if volatile on ‘peace’ hopes, as oil tanker rates push Asian and European refiners into the red. By contrast, Venezuela is seeing oilfield hiring pick up as US FDI into it builds.

In trade, the US sanctioned five Chinese entities over AI trade secret theft and ordered DeepSeek removed from federal systems as a national security risk. China has banned the export of some drones (used by rivals’ militaries, some note) on top of other recent tech export bans, which now includes tunnel-boring machines used in mining, e.g., for rare earths, and construction, targeting India in particular, who is using them in metros and national-security tunnels in the Himalayas next to China. Elsewhere, the US pitched itself as a trade partner to Central Asia to woo them from China and Russia, and New Zealand is talking to Brazil and Canada as its FTA with India begins. The market implications in these shifting trade flows can be significant: expect prices to soar for tunnel-boring projects, for example – and note the CME plans tungsten futures as the global demand for weapons rises.

Meanwhile, changing politics can also change markets. Yesterday saw an ugly bond reaction to the ugly protests and looting in France (and Belgium and Italy, following earlier peaceful protests in Spain and Portugal) with 10-year French yields +13bps, Italian +8bps, and German +3bps. If this is an ‘exogenous shock’ then economists’ and strategists’ structural metrics still apply, but other skillsets are again needed to make that call - and some political scientists suggest French politics has mutated into something more dangerous.

While France will see localized curfews, more protests are planned: and organised groups domestic and foreign, and a major French political party, are fanning the flames. Were the RN’s Le Pen to win the presidency in six months, which was the original market concern, there is now fear that the far left may aim for insurrectionary politics; and the whispered risk is Macronistes in key institutions may even see such chaos as a route back to power.

Even if we only focus on fiscal metrics, French 10-year borrowing costs are now half a rate hike higher than Friday. It’s also clear there’s no public appetite for austerity but a demand for more public spending on education and public housing, or the police and justice system, or both, when France might be about to get involved in a Middle East war and have to prop up a Ukraine whom the US has walked away from.

Of course, France can’t be allowed to fail given its importance within the EU. Then again, can the RN be allowed to succeed? The hypothetical whispered realpolitik binary is between the ECB bailing France out if needed, at a cost to the Euro and the fury of Germany, and not doing so at a cost to EU economic, political, and market stability. But could the ECB bail everybody else out from French contagion and leave Paris to sort out its mess? Maybe… except France has the aircraft carrier and nuclear weapons the EU will rely on even more if the US is doing even less: so, even here, a geopolitical call likely needs to be made first. Whatever happens now, more volatility seems far more likely than a ‘reversion to mean’.  

Meanwhile, this isn’t just about France: Albania is seeing violent street protests; India has extended the detention of its angry youthful anti-government ‘Cockroach’ party leaders; the Wall Street Journal says the US ‘Congress Is Broken’ and early voting data show 19-29 voting has collapsed so far; UK politics is fragmenting and has seen one political murder this year; an Australian politician was just struck by a left-wing activist’s car, losing a leg. That, plus votes are being counted in Alberta’s referendum on a referendum on independence, which while unlikely to succeed will very likely keep the issue alive just as it is in Quebec. Again, whatever happens now, more volatility seems far more likely than a ‘reversion to mean’. 

So, mutatis mutandis --a rule can be applied to a new situation provided the necessary adjustments are made while keeping the fundamental point the same-- arguably applies over the more common “because markets” ceteris paribus, or all things remain equal.

After all, one thing the looters in France were saying loudly was that all things are not equal in their eyes - and global power isn’t distributed that way either.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 11:45

Chinese Tech Giants Order $35 Billion Of Nvidia's Latest 'Compliant' GPUs - Except There's A Huge Problem

Chinese Tech Giants Order $35 Billion Of Nvidia's Latest 'Compliant' GPUs - Except There's A Huge Problem

ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent have ordered more than 3 million of Nvidia's new RTX PRO 5500 workstation GPUs, representing a collective sticker price exceeding $35 billion, as Chinese tech giants scramble for export-compliant hardware amid ongoing U.S. trade restrictions, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Nvidia has warned customers and partners that it cannot guarantee fulfillment because Chinese demand vastly outstrips planned production. One source indicated that buyers were informed they might receive only 5% to 10% of their requested quantities, while another noted the company expects to produce no more than 3 million RTX PRO 5500 cards globally throughout 2027. Total orders from Chinese customers alone have already surpassed 6 million units, according to the sources. The three tech giants are seeking cards priced at approximately $11,400 each, with Nvidia advising customers to expect early samples in December and commercial deliveries to begin in the first quarter of 2027.

The RTX PRO 5500 is a Blackwell-architecture workstation GPU engineered for high-performance professional systems rather than massive data-center clusters. Built on the same GB202 die as the GeForce RTX 5090, it features roughly 21,760 CUDA cores, 84 GB of GDDR7 ECC memory, and about 1,398 GB/s of bandwidth. Chinese firms primarily intend to deploy the cards for AI inference - running trained models to process chatbot responses and other user-facing tasks - rather than the heavier training workloads restricted to Nvidia's premier data-center accelerators.

Under current U.S. export controls, Nvidia's most advanced Blackwell data-center processors, such as the B300, are barred from sale to Chinese buyers, while shipments of the older Hopper-based H200 face case-by-case licensing reviews. Consequently, the RTX PRO 5500 stands among the most powerful Nvidia chips legally available to the Chinese market under existing regulations.

The massive order volume highlights the enduring demand for Nvidia hardware among Chinese technology enterprises despite years of tightening U.S. export policies. As Reuters noted last month, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology previously directed firms like ByteDance and Alibaba to report their procurement plans for the RTX PRO 5500, signaling intended government approval. That followed reports that ByteDance alone was weighing an order of roughly one million units.

This dynamic reflects a familiar pattern. Successive export controls have severely eroded Nvidia's historical dominance in China's AI data-center chip market. Earlier compliance-focused products, including the H20 and the RTX 6000D, encountered regulatory friction, production bottlenecks, or eventual discontinuation; secondary-market prices for the pulled RTX 6000D have roughly doubled in China, according to Reuters sources. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has previously noted that U.S. trade restrictions reduced the company's share of China's AI data-center accelerator market to a fraction of its former scale.

Concurrently, export limitations have created an opening for domestic alternatives. Huawei and other local semiconductor firms have steadily gained ground with native AI accelerators, even as Chinese tech giants continue to chase any accessible Nvidia silicon. The $35 billion figure represents total requested sticker-price value rather than confirmed revenue; actual deliveries will represent only a fraction of those volumes due to strict manufacturing limits and Nvidia's ongoing reallocation of TSMC production capacity toward its next-generation Rubin platform for 2027.

Whether Beijing ultimately grants final approval for the full scale of imports, and how many units Nvidia can successfully deliver, remains uncertain. For now, the reported order surge demonstrates that Chinese hyperscalers remain deeply committed to Nvidia's software ecosystem for inference workloads - even when forced down to workstation-class hardware - highlighting the enduring tension between geopolitical export controls and global market demand.

    OCTOBER ONLY.$10 OFFYOUR NEXT ORDER.$30 min. Ends Oct 31. One per customer.GET MY $10 OFF →Signs you up for ZeroHedge Store emails. Can't be combined. Every order helps support ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 11:00

Trump Unveils $8 Billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program To Support Farmers

Trump Unveils $8 Billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program To Support Farmers

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced a new Department of Agriculture program offering $8 billion to farmers during harvest season, as rising diesel costs strain operations nationwide.

"And when the Republicans win, we will pass even more funding for our farmers," Trump told a standing-room-only crowd of thousands during a rally in the Heartland Credit Union Arena in Park City, just north of Wichita, Kansas.

The Harvest Fuel Relief program will use a formula to determine losses and offset increased diesel costs, with calculations similar to those used in the established Farmer Bridge Assistance program, according to a statement from the Department of Agriculture.

Farmer Cliff Carter works on an irrigation system for one of his rice fields in Rector, Ark., on June 5, 2026. Karen Pulfer Focht/Reuters

"This $8 billion dollar investment will help bring certainty to our farmers during this harvest so they can continue to feed our nation," Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a statement released shortly after the president's announcement.

Diesel prices averaged $6.18 per gallon nationwide as of Oct. 12, up about $2.51 per gallon from the same time last year, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

During an approximately 90-minute address, Trump highlighted recent policies his administration enacted to benefit farmers and rural Americans, including raising production targets for ethanol-based biofuels to the highest levels recorded, a move the president estimated would boost farm incomes in Kansas by $4 billion, collectively, per year.

He noted a recently signed waiver allowing the year-round sale of E15 gasoline could become permanent, but only if Republicans win in the upcoming midterm elections.

"If you want to see what is at stake in this election, just look at what's happening in France, a once-great nation that is being conquered, looted, and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists, and communists who hate Christianity, and they hate, frankly, the Western civilization itself," Trump said.

"Americans are going to stand up and declare that we will defend our culture, we will protect our civilization, we will preserve our religion, our values, and our heritage, and we will never let our nation be conquered or destroyed by people that hate us."

President Donald Trump reacts during a rally in support of Republican U.S. Senate reelection candidate Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) in Park City, Kan., on Oct. 19, 2026. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Incumbent first-term Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, facing Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton in a race recent polls suggest is a toss-up, told the crowd his reelection would support "secure borders, a strong military, and lower taxes."

A loss would potentially allow Democrats to gain a majority and overtake consequential Senate committee positions, he said.

"If Kansas loses this Senate race, Chuck Schumer will control the Senate. Elizabeth Warren would control the Bank Committee, and Bernie Sanders would control the Health Care Committee, and Cory Booker, a vegan, would control the [Agriculture] Committee," Marshall said.

"We need a senator on the ag committee that can sort heifers and steers, not someone who doesn't know the difference between a bull and a steer."

Hamilton co-founded the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, Kansas, and supported the inclusion of same-sex marriages and other changes to church protocols that led to division among some congregations.

His campaign is focused on reducing the cost of living and changing rules for elected officials, including establishing term-limits and blocking Congress members and their families from trading stocks.

"Washington has become overrun by chaos and corruption, with far too many politicians on both sides of the aisle putting themselves and special interests first instead of listening to their constituents' needs. It's time for a change," Hamilton said in a statement, citing "rampant conflicts of interest and self-dealing," among other issues he aims to correct.

"Kansans deserve leaders who truly believe in government ethics and real accountability."

Republican nominee for governor Ty Masterson is running against Democrat state Sen. Cindy Holscher to replace term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly.

"This isn't about any individual running for an elected office, myself included," Masterson said during the rally. "It's about the future of this state and this country. It's about the next generation."

The candidate reiterated a common theme of recent rallies, that those in attendance are the catalyst for a Republican victory if they mobilize their networks.

"You must get out and vote, and you must bring 10 of your friends because the stakes are that high, they really are," Masterson said.

Rocker Ted Nugent boosted the energy in the arena with a surprise appearance, telling the audience his "life pivots upon God, family, country, Constitution, the Bill of Rights, the 10 Commandments, the Golden Rule, work ethic, law and order, self-defense, [and] private property rights."

He commended the veterans in attendance and those around the world who served and those on duty defending the country.

"Politics is we the people thanking those flag-draped coffins for their sacrifice by voting for the beliefs they died for," Nugent said.

"You've always seen me rock and roll on stage, but I've always stood up for the truth, logic, and common sense, the God-given individual freedoms that they died for that is guaranteed in that sacred United States Constitution."

The president's visit to Kansas marked his first in the state since a Topeka rally in 2018. He is in the midst of a midterm blitz to support Republican candidates, having rallied in Kentucky, Georgia, Montana, Ohio, and New York in recent days, with stops in North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, and another Georgia rally on the schedule, with more expected through Nov. 3.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 10:45

Toyota's "Next Gen" Corolla Built In China Will Offer Multiple Powertrains

Toyota's "Next Gen" Corolla Built In China Will Offer Multiple Powertrains

Toyota is taking a more flexible approach to electrification, preparing to launch a redesigned Corolla in China in 2028 that can be manufactured with gasoline, hybrid or fully electric powertrains, according to Nikkei Asia. The move comes as automakers increasingly rethink their EV strategies amid slowing growth, fierce competition and uncertainty about how quickly consumers will abandon combustion engines.

Nikkei writes that the new Corolla will be built through Toyota's FAW joint venture using a multipathway platform designed to streamline manufacturing and reduce costs. Rather than committing to a single propulsion technology, Toyota will be able to adjust production based on consumer demand and market conditions.

The shift comes as Toyota struggles in China, where August sales fell 23% year over year to 118,449 vehicles, including Lexus. Domestic competition has intensified, pricing pressure has increased and profitability has suffered. Toyota is also developing longer-range Lexus EVs and extended-range electric vehicles that use gasoline engines to generate electricity.

More broadly, the global EV industry has experienced a significant reality check over the last several years. After an initial wave of enthusiasm fueled by government subsidies, ambitious emissions targets and aggressive manufacturer forecasts, EV adoption has become increasingly uneven. Sales continue to grow globally, particularly in China, but demand in several Western markets has fallen short of earlier expectations, prompting automakers to delay investments, scale back production targets and reconsider plans to eliminate combustion engines entirely.

Companies that once promised an almost exclusively electric future are increasingly embracing hybrids and other transitional technologies. High vehicle prices, charging infrastructure limitations, changing government incentives and consumer concerns about range have complicated the transition. Toyota's latest strategy reflects a growing recognition across the industry that the future of transportation may involve a broader mix of technologies than many manufacturers anticipated just a few years ago.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 05:45

German Power Supply Startups Exit Market As Wholesale Prices Soar

German Power Supply Startups Exit Market As Wholesale Prices Soar

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice,

Two startup electricity retailers in Germany have recently announced they would cease operations as spiking wholesale prices amid the gas price surge are pressuring the industry again, and this time the pressure is compounded by plans for renewable policy changes.

Renewable electricity provider Grüüün, part of Münch Energie Group, early this month said it would discontinue servicing about 200,000 residential customers as of October 31, 2026, and these will now have to switch to other providers.

Grüüün, which launched operations in 2024, attributed its decision to fold to Germany's proposed changes to its renewable energy policy, including the upcoming overhaul of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG 2027), the government's focus on gas-fired power generation, and rising grid charges that have disrupted its long-term pricing structure.

Another startup, Berlin-based Stromee, has also reportedly exited the German retail market after a local utility in western Germany, SWK Energie GmbH, said this week that it had taken over power and gas customers "in the low five-digit range."

The wholesale power price spikes and the regulatory shifts in Germany have made the sector vulnerable, with market exits reminiscent of the 2022 energy crisis when numerous small providers were forced to fold, Bloomberg notes.

This year, Germany is also facing the start of the winter with historically low levels of gas in storage sites. As of October 15, Germany's gas storage sites were 60% full, well below the EU average of 74%, according to data by Gas Infrastructure Europe. The EU storage levels are at their lowest since at least 2011, raising concerns that a cold winter could lead to gas shortages.

Thanks to diversified import capabilities, Germany doesn't face a gas supply shortage despite record-low levels of natural gas in storage sites, one of the biggest German gas importers, VNG, said at the end of last month.

Low stockpiles in Germany's vast storage, the world's fourth-largest, have prompted concerns about supply security if the coming winter turns out much colder than previous winters.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 05:00

Shocker: Teens Put Down Their Phones For Summer Camp, Mental Health Improves

Shocker: Teens Put Down Their Phones For Summer Camp, Mental Health Improves

For two to three-and-a-half weeks, teenagers at a Maine summer camp traded their devices for outdoor activities and face-to-face friendships. By the end, their mental health had improved - with the largest gains among those who arrived struggling.

The findings add to research suggesting that relief from constant connectivity can produce benefits surprisingly quickly. They also raise a question - How much of it depends on what replaces the screen?

The study, published in Mental Health & Prevention, assessed 192 adolescents attending a device-free residential camp. Researchers included scientists from Sapien Labs and UC San Diego.

Participants' composite mental-health scores improved by an average of 10.1 points between arrival and departure. Those starting with mental-health struggles recorded a median improvement of 27 points. These are changes on the study's questionnaire scale, not percentage improvements or evidence that a psychiatric condition was cured.

The strongest gains involved adaptability and resilience. Campers also reported better focus and less worry and restlessness. Forty-four percent said they felt a stronger sense of belonging at camp than at school; 40% found making friends easier.

A session cost $4,900 to $7,900. Fewer than one in 10 campers arrived in the study's distressed or struggling range, against more than half of US teens on the same measure, and nearly a quarter saw their scores fall by more than five points. Sapien notes that there was no control group - so we can't know for sure whether removing devices caused the improvement, vs. how much came from exercise, sleep, friendship and the broader camp experience. 

That said, there's been similar research...

A 2024 Danish study in JAMA Network Open randomly assigned 89 families, including 181 children and adolescents, either to reduce recreational screen use or continue their usual habits. For two weeks, the intervention families handed over smartphones and tablets and were instructed to limit leisure screen use to three hours per week per person. Basic phones preserved calls and texting.

Children in those families showed greater improvement in behavioral difficulties, particularly emotional symptoms and peer problems, alongside better prosocial behavior. The overall effect was moderate by conventional statistical standards.

This provides stronger evidence that changing screen habits can help. Still, the children averaged roughly nine years old, parents knew which group they were in and supplied the behavioral ratings, and the experiment did not establish whether the benefits were lasting.

In a 2014 study led by UCLA researchers, 51 sixth-graders spent five days at an outdoor camp without screens. Compared with 54 schoolmates who continued their normal routines, campers improved more at recognizing emotions from facial expressions and other nonverbal cues. That measured a social skill, rather than depression or anxiety. The groups were not randomly assigned, and outdoor activities and greater personal interaction accompanied the screen break. Nevertheless, the finding suggests that even a brief change in daily habits can affect how children read other people.

A 2025 randomized trial in PNAS Nexus enrolled 467 people in an experiment blocking internet access on their smartphones for two weeks. Calls, texts and internet access through other devices remained available. Researchers found improvements in mental health, wellbeing and objectively tested sustained attention. Participants reported spending more time socializing in person, exercising and being outdoors. Just 119 participants met the prespecified compliance threshold of keeping the block active for at least 10 days. The average participant was 32, so these results cannot simply be transferred to teenagers.

There is also emerging evidence from the Maine camp itself. A September 2026 preprint examined brain-wave recordings from 30 campers and reported changes associated with some improvements in wellbeing. However, it was a small, uncontrolled pilot, had not been peer-reviewed, and came from the same broader camp project. Meanwhile, a 2025 SMART Schools study compared 1,227 adolescents across 30 English schools. Students at schools with restrictive phone policies used phones less during school, but did not report better mental wellbeing. Their overall weekday and weekend phone use was not significantly different.

Maine campers who said they exercised more at camp gained 17.4 points on average, against 4.8 for those who exercised less. Those who felt a stronger sense of belonging gained 15 points, against 5.8 for those whose sense of belonging fell. None of those gaps reached statistical significance, and the scores were taken on the last day of camp, so whether the gains lasted after campers went home is unknown.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/20/2026 - 04:15

US Prohibits Unauthorized Drones Along US-Mexico Border

US Prohibits Unauthorized Drones Along US-Mexico Border

Authored by Timothy Frudd via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration banned unauthorized drone activity along the U.S.-Mexico border on Oct. 16 to increase airspace security as it cracks down on drug cartel drone operations.

The ban, established through a temporary flight restriction for drones, was announced in a joint statement by the Department of War, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Transportation. Friday's announcement comes as U.S. officials have warned that the United States faces thousands of drone incursions at the southern border each month.

The new temporary flight restriction took effect Friday and prohibits any unauthorized drones from operating up to 400 feet above ground level. The restriction extends one nautical mile north of the U.S.-Mexico border.

"The United States government will maintain 100% operational control of our border: land, air, and sea," Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in a statement. "For too long, cartels have taken advantage of gaps along our southern border. Thanks to President Donald J. Trump, those days are over."

Friday's joint announcement said the flight restriction for drones along the southern border builds upon the administration's previous efforts to secure the border and defend against national security threats, such as illegal cartel operations. The departments said the restriction will reduce risks to continued border security operations.

Hegseth said that the Trump administration's decision to restrict unauthorized drone activity will give U.S. commanders more awareness, increased decision space, and additional options to defend the country.

"Equipped with cutting-edge technology - including Directed Energy Weapons - our warfighters will shoot down any cartel drone that threatens America's sovereignty," he added.

In March 2024, Gen. Gregory Guillot, commander of U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that there were likely more than 1,000 drone incursions along the southern border each month. He described the number as "alarming."

In August, Joint Task Force-Southern Border used the Army Multipurpose High Energy Laser to shoot down three drones linked to Mexican drug cartels, U.S. Northern Command said. The command said the drones were determined to be directly supporting activities that posed a physical threat to U.S. military personnel and U.S. Customs and Border Protection partners.

U.S. Northern Command later said in September the task force had taken down more than 300 unmanned aircraft systems since the start of this year by using both kinetic and non-kinetic systems.

Last month, Hegseth directed the Pentagon to take steps to accelerate the development and use of anti-drone systems across the U.S. military. He warned that American adversaries are quickly producing low-cost unmanned systems and are using them to conduct surveillance, cause disruptions, and carry out attacks.

The Trump administration also previously directed the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to expedite its rule-making process for establishing drone flight restrictions over sensitive locations.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Friday's temporary flight restriction showed that the administration was doubling down on its promise to secure the U.S.-Mexico border by protecting U.S. airspace from threats posed by cartel drones and other illegal operations.

Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin said, "This action will help counter cartel drone threats, protect our personnel, and strengthen security in the airspace above the border."

An official notice for airmen advisory will be published by the FAA. It will include links to the domestic notice and the FAA's Unmanned Aircraft Systems Data Delivery System.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 20:55

Supreme Showdown: Investigative Reporter And Accused Chinese Operative Face Off In Press Freedom Case

Supreme Showdown: Investigative Reporter And Accused Chinese Operative Face Off In Press Freedom Case

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

Below is my column in The Hill on an important case currently before the Supreme Court on the free press and the ability to protect confidential sources. The underlying facts may seem like something out of The Onion: an accused Chinese operative and PLA Colonel who was viewed as a national security risk is successfully using the Privacy Act to get a respected journalist to reveal her confidential sources. However, it is very serious and, unless the Court reviews the case, investigative journalism in the United States could suffer a debilitating blow with little more than a shrug from the courts.

Here is the column:

This month, journalist Catherine Herridge is in the fight of her life - and the stakes for the country could not be higher. The former Fox and CBS reporter has long been one of the most prominent investigative journalists in the U.S., particularly on national security stories. She is now on her last appeal to the Supreme Court, attempting to protect the most vital prerequisite of the free press: confidentiality of sources.

At issue is a 2017 story that aired on Fox News concerning a Virginia-based training firm patronized by Pentagon officials. Herridge exposed ties of the University of Management and Technology to the Chinese military. It was the kind of difficult, complex story that made Herridge such a respected figure in her profession. The subject of the story, University of Management and Technology founder Yanping Chen, sued, claiming that the exposure had led to her loss of employment.

Such lawsuits are usually brought against journalists by disgruntled subjects under defamation or other grounds that are quickly dismissed by courts. But Chen brought a novel claim against various officials under the Privacy Act. She alleges that they disclosed to Herridge protected information about an FBI investigation. Rather than sue Herridge directly, Chen subpoenaed her to disclose the names of her sources. Herridge sat for a deposition but refused to breach confidentiality.

This is not Herridge's first rodeo in fighting for journalistic values. Years ago, CBS News forced her out and seized her files containing confidential source information. Despite considerable costs, Herridge eventually stared down the network and forced it to return the files.

Notably, much of the Fox News story about Chen was available in the public domain. For example, a whistleblower and FBI informant had said publicly that Chen had admitted to him that she had been a colonel in China's People's Liberation Army. He also alleged that she told him to lie about that fact when called to testify before a federal grand jury.

Because Herridge refuses to disclose her sources, we do not know how much she actually relied on non-public information. This puts her in an impossible position: She would have to reveal sources in order to show that Chen's claims are meritless.

In making her Privacy Act claim, Chen cited the disclosure of many facts already available publicly, including contradictions of her denials on being part of the Chinese military. The only information that had not already appeared in the public domain appears to be photographic, including a picture of Chen in a Chinese colonel's uniform.

In this case, Herridge had the misfortune of seeking relief in Washington, D.C., where judges have been relatively permissive in allowing such disputes to go to trial. In 2023, U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper, an Obama appointee, tossed aside protections that other circuit courts recognize under the First Amendment. He ordered Herridge to identify her confidential sources, then held her in contempt when she refused, imposing a crippling $800-a-day fine. Even that was not enough for Chen, who tried to have the penalties increased to $5,000 a day.

Before the fines were paused in August pending appeal, Herridge had to write a check every day from her two children's college funds. "These fines are designed to break you emotionally and professionally," she told me. "I would walk every day to the mailbox with our oldest son for emotional and moral support."

Unfortunately, a panel of three judges on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld Cooper's ruling. Herridge therefore went to the Supreme Court for an emergency injunction against the daily fine. The court refused to intervene immediately, although Justice Brett Kavanaugh indicated that he wanted to grant the relief.

Herridge is now back before the Supreme Court, which will have a final opportunity to take the case and prevent a catastrophic blow to press freedoms. If the court again punts, then any aggrieved subject of a news story could effectively strip journalistic sources of confidentiality by alleging a Privacy Act violation.

The cause of this pileup is the highly permissive standard adopted by the D.C. Circuit for the single most important jurisdiction for investigative reporting. To compel disclosure, Chen needs only to show that the source is central to her case and that she has exhausted other avenues of discovery. This test exposes every reporter who breaks a story in Washington involving government abuse or waste. Imagine if Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein had been sued under the Privacy Act by Nixon administration officials and forced to disclose the identity of Deep Throat.

Other circuits have a balancing test that allows for a more contextual resolution of such disputes. Another approach would be to deny such compelled disclosures when the case (as here) would not likely survive a motion for summary judgment. Chen, who lost her position because of information already in the public domain, cannot possibly show meaningful injuries from these photographs.

The irony in the case is crushing. Chen is an alleged former colonel in the People's Liberation Army, using the U.S. Privacy Act to gut a Constitutional right not recognized in China. Of course she still has rights in this country, but the question is not whether she can sue under the Privacy Act - it is what standard she must meet before the courts make a journalist betray confidential sources.

Herridge got the story right and did the right thing in protecting her sources at great personal cost. The justices now have a chance to protect her. They should take her case. Not only has it created a split among the circuit courts, but it also has a compelling record to reconsider the confusing 1972 decision in Branzburg v. Hayes, which one appellate judge ridiculed for being "about as clear as mud."

Herridge is not seeking immunity or a favor. She is a tough reporter who just wants to do her job and protect her sources under a fair legal standard. The question is whether four justices will agree and grant review in Herridge v. Chen.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of "Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution." He previously worked for CBS News and currently works at Fox News as a legal analyst. His views do not necessarily reflect those of those networks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 20:05

Brookfield, NextEra To Build $100 Billion AI Hub On Cold War Nuclear Site

Brookfield, NextEra To Build $100 Billion AI Hub On Cold War Nuclear Site

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice,

The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) has announced a landmark $100-billion private investment to turn the former uranium enrichment site in Western Kentucky into the new Paducah American Energy Hub, marking one of the largest economic development projects in Kentucky's history.

Led by U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, the initiative will bring together a private-sector coalition to build a massive artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) innovation campus powered by new energy infrastructure. The phased buildout is targeted for 2032, and is expected to create roughly 8,000 construction jobs and 600 permanent operations jobs. Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM) has been selected to build the 1.8-gigawatt (GW) AI and HPC data center campus while NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE) will develop 2 GW of natural gas-fired generation coupled with 2.6 GW of battery energy storage. The project is designed to operate on dedicated power supplies capable of feeding excess energy back to the regional grid to avoid raising utility bills for local families and businesses. The campus will also deploy a modern closed-loop cooling system to continuously recirculate water and minimize external consumption. The project leaders emphasize that this design is vastly more resource-efficient compared to the site's previous tenant, the Cold War-era Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, which was originally designed to pull up to 30 million gallons of water per day from the Ohio River.

Still, the Paducah project comes at a time when the market is souring on heavy AI infrastructure spending.

Last year, Trump, alongside Oracle's Larry Ellison, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, unveiled Stargate, a private-sector joint venture intended to invest up to $500 billion over four years to build hyper-scale AI data centers and energy infrastructure across the United States. Billed by Trump as the "largest AI infrastructure project in history," Stargate is designed to secure American dominance in AI over foreign competitors like China. Oracle serves as the core cloud and infrastructure provider for the venture. Initial development of the project began in Abilene, Texas, consisting of multiple 500,000-square-foot data center buildings to house the immense computing power needed for next-generation AI models.

Unfortunately, the ambitious AI infrastructure project found itself on the ropes just months after its grand launch.

Back in January, Business Insider reported that JPMorgan Chase was having trouble syndicating the $38 billion in construction debt it underwrote for the Stargate AI data center initiative as institutional investors grow increasingly cautious regarding concentrated tech sector exposure. Banks spent more than six months attempting to distribute the multi-billion-dollar debt packages for the Stargate campuses located in Texas and Wisconsin; however, buyers appeared uninterested in taking on massive piles of debt tied heavily to single-tenant AI operations. Oracle leases the facilities, and S&P cut Oracle in July to BBB-, one notch above junk, over its data center spending. Investors demanded a higher return to hold the debt, and the banks had to sell it at a discount.

In April, OpenAI officially paused its Stargate UK data center project, citing high industrial electricity prices and regulatory uncertainty. Stargate UK was planned in partnership with hardware firms Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Nscale, aiming to deploy thousands of advanced AI chips (starting with 8,000 GPUs and scaling up to 31,000) across sites in North-East England, including Cobalt Park near Newcastle and Blyth.

Whereas OpenAI did not cancel the project outright, the AI giant says it will only resume development only when the "right conditions" allow for long-term infrastructure investment. The pause dealt a major blow to UK infrastructure partner Nscale (founded by Josh Payne), which had been scaling up operations and weighing a potential stock market IPO, as well as Britain's push to emerge as a sovereign AI superpower.

The UK pause is the second blow to OpenAI's planned capacity in a month.

Last month, Bloomberg reported that Oracle's pivotal $18-billion Project Jupiter, a massive 1,400-acre data center campus in New Mexico critical to supporting the broader AI infrastructure goals, has stalled. Oracle issued a force majeure notice to lender Blue Owl Capital regarding the 2.45-gigawatt hyperscale data center in southern New Mexico after the tech giant failed to secure vital state and federal land-use permits for a planned natural gas plant. Instead, Oracle announced plans to shift over to solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), an experimental stopgap that has never been deployed on a scale this large.

Public resistance to data centers has been growing rapidly across the United States, Europe and Asia as communities push back against the massive environmental and economic footprint of AI infrastructure. A recent Gallup poll shows that roughly 71% of Americans oppose the construction of AI data centers in their localities. Pushback in the U.S. has resulted in projects worth over $130 billion blocked or delayed, with reports indicating more than 500 active data center bans or moratoriums have popped up nationwide.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 19:15

'Once He Leaves, The Case Is Over': Judge Jails OpenAI Bugging Suspect After Saudi Consulate Offers 'Blank-Check' Bail

'Once He Leaves, The Case Is Over': Judge Jails OpenAI Bugging Suspect After Saudi Consulate Offers 'Blank-Check' Bail

When a foreign government volunteers to bankroll your release from federal custody, it may be time to reconsider the "no ties to a foreign state" defense.

On Monday, a San Francisco federal magistrate ordered Abdulrahman Alfozan, the 35-year-old Saudi national accused of bugging an executive conference room at OpenAI's headquarters, detained without bail pending trial, saying there is a "significant" risk he would flee. The ruling came after Judge Alex Tse grilled the defense over an offer by the Saudi Consulate in Los Angeles to pay Alfozan's full bail, which CNBC reports that the judge called "problematic".

In other words, the Kingdom offered to post bail for the man accused of bugging the room where OpenAI meets government officials, and the judge decided that was not, in fact, reassuring.

But, there's a lot more going on here...

"Problematic"

Alfozan's lawyer, William Pernik, had asked for release on home detention with GPS monitoring and a co-signed bond, backed by a written undertaking from the Saudi Consulate General. In court, the defense said Alfozan would also put up $1 million in assets on top of the consulate's offer. The defense package also came with dozens of support letters and a commitment from the consulate not to issue him travel documents.

Tse wasn't buying it. The judge noted that OpenAI had already fired Alfozan, so there is no job keeping him in the Bay Area, and ordered him back in court next month.

Courtroom accounts had the judge likening Riyadh's open-ended support to a "blank check", which is roughly the opposite of what you want a federal judge saying about your sureties.

“Even if I set it at $10 million, they are going to pay the entire bond," the judge reportedly said, adding that "there is a real threat here that once he leaves, the case is over."

Prosecutors from the Northern District of California had argued that Alfozan's alleged conduct could pose "a danger to the national security of the United States" and that he enjoyed "considerable support" from the Saudi government.

The defense countered that nationality is not evidence of flight and that the planned trip was for family and immigration reasons. According to CBS, Alfozan has been a US permanent resident since September 2020 and had applied for citizenship,

"Saudi Needs You More Then The U.S.!"

The government's case for detention, filed Sunday, is where things got colorful. Prosecutors said Alfozan was in frequent WhatsApp contact with a member of the Saudi Royal Family throughout 2025 and 2026, as recently as Oct. 5, four days before his arrest. The royal (unnamed in the filing) told him about a new Saudi AI program and repeatedly pressed him on when he'd leave OpenAI. The May 2026 exchange is worth quoting from the filing directly:

"Saudi needs you more then [sic] the U.S.!"

Alfozan's reply: "100"

Translation: agreed. According to CBS, Alfozan added he wouldn't leave until his stock vested, which, in fairness, is the most relatable thing anyone in this story has said.

To be clear (and the defense will make this point at every opportunity), the filing does not allege the royal directed Alfozan to plant the device or steal anything from OpenAI. It also doesn't say how the two knew each other. But it does describe internal searches concerning meetings between OpenAI and Saudi officials: reports say Alfozan accessed an internal folder labeled "Saudi Gov Docs" and searched for a meeting tagged "HUMAIN x MCIT @OpenAI", a reference to the PIF-backed AI champion and the Kingdom's communications and IT ministry. Prosecutors also flagged that further charges could follow.

Regular readers will recall that HUMAIN is the vehicle through which Riyadh has been hoovering up US AI chips (May 14, 2025), with Washington signing off on advanced chip exports (Nov 20, 2025) as part of what we described as American AI imperialism's reliance on the Middle East (Jan 6, 2026). Turns out the reliance may run both ways.

Meanwhile, after his arrest derailed a family trip, prosecutors say the Saudi government and a Saudi military official each arranged flights out of the US for his wife, Lujain Alassaf, and their three-month-old son. That trip, recall, was a one-way booking to Saudi Arabia via Istanbul for Oct. 12, three days after the FBI picked him up, as first disclosed last week. Alfozan is also listed as a venture partner at Riyadh's Raed Ventures, whose partners include a member of the royal family; one former CIA official told CNBC the firm is basically an arm of the state.

Toilet Paper Tradecraft

As a reminder, the underlying case is one we covered when it broke last week. According to the DOJ complaint, OpenAI staff found an encrypted audio recorder wrapped in toilet paper and plugged into a USB port on the back of a TV in an executive conference room on Sept. 30; it had been installed around Sept. 28.

OpenAI then added a camera, which on Oct. 5 caught Alfozan entering and checking behind the TV. The same day, security found a second recorder from the same Chinese manufacturer in a bag he'd left in a printer room - along with his wallet and ID.

The complaint also cited AI prompts about building, obfuscating, and remotely accessing a recorder, and says he used an internal productivity tool to map executive meeting rooms and leadership schedules. The room in question routinely hosted meetings between OpenAI executives and government officials, including on days close to when the device was allegedly planted. OpenAI said it has no indication that model weights, source code or customer data were accessed.

The charge itself - using or trying to use a device to intercept oral communications - carries a maximum of five years and a $250,000 fine (which, as prosecutors seem to appreciate, is a much smaller number than what a one-way ticket to Riyadh is worth).

Same Consulate, Same Offer, Different Ending

Why would a judge balk at a foreign consulate guaranteeing bail? Because this particular consulate has done it before.

In 2016, the Saudi Consulate in Los Angeles posted $100,000 in bail for Abdulrahman Sameer Noorah, a Portland Community College student charged with manslaughter in the hit-and-run death of 15-year-old Fallon Smart. His passport was confiscated and he wore a GPS ankle monitor. Two weeks before trial in June 2017, he cut it off and vanished, turning up in Saudi Arabia a week later, reportedly on a Saudi-issued passport under another name.

The Oregonian later tallied more than two dozen Saudi suspects who fled US charges, in several cases after Riyadh posted bail. And since there is no US-Saudi extradition treaty, Noorah has never been back.

Passport surrender, GPS monitoring, a consular guarantee: the exact package Alfozan's lawyers offered on Monday. We suspect Judge Tse has read The Oregonian.

Bottom Line

The timing is not lost on Washington. Late last week, DNI Jay Clayton - who called the OpenAI incident a "serious situation" - warned that the administration and US companies "need to be wary" of AI espionage, singling out China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Notably absent from that list: the close US ally that just offered to bail out the accused. Officially, nobody has alleged state direction, and Alfozan is presumed innocent. But between the royal WhatsApps, the "Saudi Gov Docs" searches, the military-arranged flights for his family, and a consulate eager to cut a check, prosecutors don't need to prove motive to win a detention hearing - and they didn't.

The bigger question is what this does to the Gulf AI trade. Washington has spent two years waving through chip exports to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi on the premise that 'Gulf capital' is a partner in the US AI buildout, not a collector of its secrets. One alleged toilet-paper bug won't unwind those deals, but it hands every export-control hawk in Congress a brand-new exhibit - or, more likely, gets quietly filed under "isolated incident" the next time a HUMAIN megadeal needs a signature.

Alfozan is due back in court next month. We'll be watching whether "further charges" arrive before he does.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 18:50

'Operation Protect The Vote': Feds Arrest 28 Foreign Nationals In California Monday For Illegal Voting

'Operation Protect The Vote': Feds Arrest 28 Foreign Nationals In California Monday For Illegal Voting

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Federal agents arrested more than two dozen foreign nationals across California on Monday, for fraudulently registering and voting in U.S. elections.

Specifically, the 28 suspects are being charged with a combination of illegal voting, making a false claim of U.S. citizenship in order to vote, and "knowingly depriving the residents of California of a fair and impartial election process," Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter announced at a news conference in Los Angeles.

The statewide sweep was executed by Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and other federal law enforcement agencies as part of "Operation Protect the Vote."

"This operation marks an important step in ongoing efforts to investigate election-related crimes. HSI will continue to investigate alleged voter fraud and hold those responsible accountable under the law," HSI stated on X.

Operation Protect the Vote spans all four federal judicial districts in the state, with Homeland Security Investigations leading the coordinated arrests. One prominent case involves Alexander Muñoz, a 72-year-old Belizean national in Commerce, CA, who allegedly claimed U.S. citizenship in 2019 to register and subsequently voted in 2020, 2022, and 2024.

The crackdown follows a DOJ lawsuit filed against California on October 15 after state officials refused to review a list of over 20,000 suspected noncitizens on voter rolls within a 48-hour deadline. While federal prosecutors assert these arrests confirm widespread noncitizen voting, California Governor Gavin Newsom and state election officials dispute the scale of the issue, characterizing the federal intervention as an attempt to bully and suppress voters ahead of the November 3 midterm election.

Bill Essayli, the First Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California, warned last week that California election workers could face criminal liability under federal aiding-and-abetting laws if they knowingly process unlawful ballots, asserting that the state would be facilitating a violation of federal law.

President Donald Trump issued his own warning on Friday, advising California election officials they could face lengthy prison sentences if they count ballots cast by suspected illegal aliens and noncitizens in the upcoming midterm elections.

"They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!" Trump declared Friday on Truth Social, sharing a DOJ letter warning to Los Angeles County officials.

During the press conference Monday, McCotter announced that that the Justice Department had just filed a motion for emergency relief in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, asking  the Court to grant its motion for a temporary restraining order (TRO) and a preliminary injunction and set aside and segregate the ballots of the 20,000+ individuals until it can be determined that they are U.S. citizens.

"They are on California's voter roll, and therefore already have, or soon will receive a mail-in ballot," McCotter told reporters.

Essayli stated that Monday's arrests confirm federal suspicions that noncitizens are voting in California elections, which he noted is  "unconstitutional and illegal.

"In the last seven weeks alone, the Department of Justice has charged 113 aliens across twenty states with illegal voting and registration offenses," Essayli said. "Since the beginning of the Trump administration, the DOJ has charged 156 people with voter fraud-related offenses."

Essayli said the Justice Department is "investigating thousands more similar cases throughout the nation."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 17:40

Trump Favorable On Trilateral Meeting With Xi, Putin: "I Would Do It"

Trump Favorable On Trilateral Meeting With Xi, Putin: "I Would Do It" Zelensky Should Get Out of the Way, Trump Suggests

President Trump has once again put Zelensky in his place, in a Monday afternoon exchange with reporters he actually again suggested that the Ukrainian leader needs to be booted from leadership, and cut out of negotiations in an effort to find peace in the war with Russia.

"Zelensky is a man that should've had this war settled a long time ago. If he would've listened to me, he would've made a much better deal a long time ago and he'd have a million people living... I think it's time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine," Trump said bluntly when engaging with a reporter's question.

"I'm supporting stopping the war between Russia and Ukraine... Frankly, Zelensky is not helping matters much. I think he doesn't want to stop it. I want to see people not die," the US President also said.

This was in response to Zelensky earlier hitting back at Trump over some serious changes in US policy on Ukraine, including an apparent halt or at least throttling of intelligence-sharing: "you're on the wrong side of history" - Zelensky had said.

In Trump's own fresh comments, he hit back hard, saying: "Zelensky doesn't know what he's talking about."

Trump Favorable To Trilateral Summit (Sans Zelensky)

In the wake of prior late Sunday reports, Trump has also newly declared that he is indeed open to participating in a trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin (but without Zelensky's involvement). Trump also offered that could be focused on denuclearization.

"I would do it" - Trump stated multiple times, stipulating that he'd like to see it happen if President Xi were on board, and saying it would likely be in China (since Xi just recently visited the US).

Watch the crucial moment below:

We detailed Sunday that Putin reportedly first floated the idea of a trilateral meeting in an Oct. 9 phone call with Trump. That conversation also produced a deal for the US to buy Russian diesel fuel and facilitate its sale on the global market. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that discussions were taking place over a potential meeting. 

After Putin Floated Summit Idea, It's Still at 'Hypothetical' Stage

“There is no clear understanding yet regarding the meeting itself or its potential agenda, although all three parties acknowledge the hypothetical possibility of such a meeting taking place,” he told The Wall Street Journal.

A senior US official earlier said that while Trump hadn’t agreed to such a summit, he said that the president could be receptive to the idea, given his desire to fulfill a campaign promise to settle the war. Trump had said it would be finished on “day one” of his new term, but he is now approaching nearly two years in office. 

The Kremlin has suggested holding the trilateral dialogue on the sidelines of the coming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the people familiar with discussions said. That gathering takes place on Nov. 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, the southern Chinese tech hub. 

A potential three-way dialogue on Chinese soil would mark a big step for Xi in his efforts to elevate China’s role as a diplomatic power broker, said analysts who study China. Russian officials proposed the idea to Beijing through diplomatic channels and the Chinese side has indicated it wouldn’t object if Trump is on board. 

And now Trump is declaring that he is indeed on board.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 17:20

Intifada For All...

Intifada For All...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via kunstler.com,

"The Dems are a total mess of cluster B psychopathology. They will continue to humiliate themselves & alienate the normal population."

- JD Haltigan on X

Looks like the punishments will continue across the pond until morale improves. France on fire in the "mostly peaceful" riots - according to the BBC - this past weekend could yet ignite a final, furious, Globalist-Jacobin bid to wreck Western Civ as populist nationalism looms ever larger to defeat them. That is, whatever the demonic coalition of desperate Euro elites backed by the Soros NGO empire, the WEF, the UN bureaucracy, possibly the British Crown, and the EU, can induce their Lefty-left useful idiots to act out intifada-style against the people and their culture.

A Nice Bordeaux with Your Intifada?

President Macron stepped up Sunday to ask, "How can French people do this to France?" as the ancient tower of the Limoges city hall collapsed in flames. Somebody please inform him that the parties responsible for all the fiery chaos are not necessarily French people. Any way you cut it, this has got to be the end-of-pretend that flooding Europe with jihadis for two decades was a grand and noble idea. Where's that whiff of grapeshot when you really need it?

You also must wonder whether the American Lefty-left has riot-envy. Their handlers in the Democratic Party and its dark entourage of "resistance" foundations, billionaire NGO-funders, and Deep State seditionists must be itching to unleash similar punishments across the USA, as they managed to do in 2020 to honor the saintly George Floyd. Of course, they don't have the same resources they enjoyed back then. The US president - know who that is? - has choked off a good deal of their money-laundered cash-flow.

The main question seems to be: will any street-fighting commence here before or after the mid-term election? Before Nov. 3, let's face it, would not be such a good look for the Dems. Flash mobs of "teens" looting the sneaker stores and burning down 7-Eleven shops might only prompt the Trump-weary Republican hold-outs to show up at the polls bigly in swing states. Certainly, big, violent street demonstrations full of jihadi and communist iconography won't reflect well on Mamdani wannabe Senate candidates Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan or Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who assisted Tim Walz in covering-up the Somali fraud operations for years and years, and ran the Signal comms network during the Minneapolis ICE riots of last winter.

Of course, if the Euroland riots keep going, the American Lefties just might bust out anyway. "Solidarity," and all that. Comically, the "No Kings" demos of Saturday were hamstrung when Mark Zuckerberg's Meta company (formerly Facebook) suspended the No Kings Instagram account around the peak time of scheduled events around the country (starting at 1:30 p.m. ET) and for nearly two hours after. Meta later explained something about an automated security system triggered by a high volume of bot postings linked to an Anthropic AI tool. The No Kings organizers lost their action coordination platform. Fizzle fizzle. . . Boo-hoo.

After the election, however, you might consider that the same Lefty-left minions in America will take to the streets whether they win or lose the big contest over who gets to run Congress. For one thing, do not underestimate the degree of scrutiny that the federal government will give to balloting in previously sketchy corners of the land such as Michigan, Arizona, Minnesota, California, and many other places.

Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, head of the DOJ's Civil Rights Division, sent letters to fifty states last summer warning officials they could face criminal liability for allowing or enabling non-citizens to vote. This ain't no fool' around. The DOJ is also sending attorneys by the hundreds to "observe" election proceedings. The Department of Homeland Security announced and is taking multiple actions framed as "protecting election integrity and addressing voter fraud."

The Democratic Party is already royally pissed-off at the prospect that their manifold cheating operations might be stifled this time around. You can bet that a failure to win the House and Senate will produce a vigorous reaction, easily turning violent, along with a massive effort led by lawfare ninjas Norm Eisen and Marc Elias to foul up all efforts at certifying the vote in a thousand frivolous lawsuits. Is it not time to recognize that as a form of seditious conspiracy and prosecute it accordingly?

The last big question, then, is how the president might respond to post-election shenanigans. Well, for one thing, and whatever the outcome, Mr. Trump will no longer be constrained by the need to avoid the appearance of election interference. My guess is that he will finally go medieval on these vile seditionists, even if it requires declaring some sort of national emergency or invoking the Insurrection Act. He is not going to allow a replay of anything like the 2020 mayhem.

Whatever the Europeans choose to do, it would be a shame if they lose their countries. We won't lose ours, and we are not coming to rescue them this time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 17:00

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