Panama Canal Fees Hit Record As El Nino, Hormuz Crisis Choke Global Shipping

Panama Canal transit auction prices have surged to record highs this summer as an intensifying El Niño and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz upend global shipping routes. 

A Bloomberg report Friday morning said a supertanker paid a record $4.6 million at auction to bypass the growing queue and secure an earlier transit slot next week. The spike in canal fees and vessel wait times threatens to further raise freight costs, reinforcing growing concerns about inflationary pressures across global supply chains.

Daily auctions for August passage through the canal's busiest locks have averaged about $1.1 million, more than 16 times the average during the same period last year, according to the Financial Times, citing Argus Media. Recent auctions for the larger locks averaged a record $2.5 million. 

Bloomberg said that the liquefied petroleum gas supertanker G. Arete paid a staggering $4.6 million to skip the line, topping an earlier auction this week that exceeded $4 million.

At the same time, the Hormuz chokepoint disruption has pushed Asian buyers toward crude oil and petroleum products at major US export terminals in the Gulf of America, increasing demand for canal passage. Meanwhile, falling canal water levels linked to intensifying El Niño weather conditions, such as drought and limited rainfall, are constraining traffic, which are the main drivers behind rising transit costs. 

"The problem right now is the water levels are dropping steadily, and it's not supposed to be doing that from May to December," said Ross Griffith, head of Americas freight pricing at Argus, who the FT quoted. This year's El Niño has already disrupted marine traffic on European rivers such as the Rhine and Danube, leading to cruise cancellations and freight rerouting.

More color from the FT:

The Panama Canal Authority told the FT that some vessels that recently transited have paid amounts exceeding $1mn at auction to meet their specific market needs and reflected "temporary market fluctuations", not a tariff set by the Panama Canal.

"The announced draft adjustments will not reduce the number of daily vessel transits," an authority spokesperson said. But depending on how conditions change, the authority could impose further restrictions, the spokesperson added.

Parash Jain, managing director and HSBC's global head of transport and logistics research, told clients earlier this week that concerns are mounting that other key waterways around the world are also facing lower water levels, constraining shipping:

El Niño increases both drought and flood risks by shifting rainfall patterns, accelerating evaporation, and lowering river levels at key gateways such as the Panama Canal and Rhine River, while creating floods in Asia and South America, reducing harvests. Authorities respond with draught limits, caps on daily transits, and tighter slot availability, which forces vessels to load less, wait longer, or split cargoes, thus reducing effective capacity and supporting freight rates. Indeed, from 26 August, The Panama Canal Authority is lowering the maximum draft for the largest vessels transiting the canal, preparing for El Niño (6 August, Maritime Executive).

The strengthening El Niño episode poses risks well beyond shipping. As major institutional desks have warned, drought, flooding and disrupted harvests could tighten agricultural supplies and place renewed upward pressure on global food prices

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 13:20

Boeing Unveils Cheap Radar Seeker Built From Off-The-Shelf Parts

By Michael Scanlon of Defense News

Boeing revealed an ultra-low-cost radar seeker Tuesday as this year’s Space and Missile Defense Symposium kicked off in Huntsville, Alabama, pitching it as a way to get missile guidance on more weapons for less money.

Installed in the nose of a missile or bomb, the seeker locates the target and guides the weapon toward it. Seekers are among the most expensive parts of a guided weapon, and Boeing’s argument is that their cost is what limits how many the military can buy.

Boeing’s Ultra Low-Cost Seeker, or ULCS, is an active seeker, meaning it emits its own radar signal rather than relying on one from an aircraft or a ground station. Boeing built it largely from commercial parts adapted for military use, and it is still in development.

The company said it is looking at using the ULCS in its air and missile defense interceptors, its guided bombs and its cruise missiles, because its design allows for reuse across all three rather than requiring a different seeker for each weapon.

Boeing said the seeker is designed for strikes from the air, land or at sea, in any weather and against moving targets. The company ran several tests on the ULCS earlier this summer.

Engineers checked the sensor design in an anechoic chamber, which absorbs stray signal reflections. The seeker also flew aboard a Beechcraft 1900 over land and water, where Boeing said it found and tracked targets as expected.

At Spaceport America in New Mexico, the seeker tracked a passing drone from a fixed position on the ground. Boeing then mounted it on a rocket standing in for a missile and launched it at a second drone carrying a reflector, which bounced radar back as a full-size target would. Boeing said the seeker survived the acceleration and vibration of every test, and detected and tracked its targets each time.

Reuse across weapons is the major selling point, according to Boeing.

“We are developing ULCS with the goal of sharing a common sensor architecture across several of our programs,” said Bob Ciesla, vice president of Boeing Precision Engagement Systems. He said the seeker is modular and built to an open standard so Boeing can fit it to different weapons and change it later without redesigning it.

Boeing already builds seekers for other weapons, some of them for competitors. The company makes the active radar seeker for the Lockheed Martin PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptor and said it drew on that work for ULCS while aiming to build something cheaper for use against less sophisticated threats.

Steve Wright, Boeing’s senior manager for weapon sensors and advanced guidance, said work remains to be done.

“We still have more work to do, but the rapid testing our teams have completed prove[s] that this capability is real and will fundamentally change how we look at seeker affordability across our programs,” he said.

Boeing said its teams are studying the test data and using the results to shape the next round of work, including several flight tests in 2027 that will attempt to more closely replicate real-world scenarios.

Boeing is not alone in its attempts to exploit modularity. On Aug. 10, Lockheed Martin announced Strigo, a line of radio-frequency sensors, missile datalinks and seeker technologies built around the same modular premise, designed to serve a variety of weapons.

Boeing did not say whether its ULCS is being funded internally or attached to any existing funded weapons program. Nor did it say just how ultra-low the cost of its new seeker will be.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 13:00

"We Do Bad Things To Bad People": Hegseth Unveils New Motto For Counter Cartel Coalition

Via The Libertarian Institute 

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared that the new motto of the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (ACCC) is "we do bad things to bad people."

"The new motto of the ACCC is 'we do bad things to bad people.' That’s the mentality I want to have inside this room," he said on Wednesday. "Ultimately, we’re dealing with bad people that have done a lot of bad things to a lot of good people for a very long time. And they’re about to meet a new sheriff in town in the ACCC."

Under President Donald Trump and Hegseth, the Department of War has significantly expanded military operations in South America. The US has bombed dozens of vessels it claims are operated by cartels. Additionally, the US has attacked Venezuela and kidnapped the country’s president, and Trump is threatening that Cuba is next. 

The ACCC is an American-led coalition that Hegseth says will target "narco-terrorists" and drug traffickers. US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) has conducted dozens of strikes, killing over 200 people. The Pentagon has labeled the dead as narco-terrorists. However, several family members of victims have asserted the dead were engaged in fishing or other legal activities. The DEA says the operations have not impacted the flow of drugs into the US.

Last month, The Washington Post reviewed a DEA assessment that found the strikes on vessels operated by alleged narco-terrorists have not changed the amount or price of cocaine entering the US. US military officials also admitted to Congress that the operations have had no impact on purity.

The DEA said that cartels have designed new methods to smuggle drugs into the US. Cartels have bribed Colombian officials to get the location of US warships and used small aircraft for alternative routes to traffic cocaine into the US. 

"When you squeeze the balloon on one side, it always expands on the other side," one DEA official told The Post. "They always find the weak spots and exploit them."

A senior Colombian official also told the outlet that the US military operations have had little impact on the cartels. "There was a dissuasive effect in one type of transportation," the source explained.

"So it has forced them to seek out other methods. Taking the drugs out through ports has increased, stockpiling it on large ships," the official added.

Hegseth travels to Panama, calls narcoterrorists and traffickers 'the ISIS and al-Qaeda of the Western Hemisphere' at conference https://t.co/wUYUJIhqpy via @OANN

— Terrie Lake (@terrielake) August 13, 2026

Congress has not authorized the President to wage war against foreign drug cartels. The White House has attempted to justify the lethal operation by designating the cartels as narco-terrorists. However, drug smuggling is a criminal act, not an act of war. Senator Rand Paul has argued the strikes amount to extrajudicial killing. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 12:20

Russia To Intensify Attacks On Sources Of Western Support In Ukraine: Lavrov

At the end of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an unusual move declared the start of a 40-day intensified pressure campaign against Russia, designed to force Moscow to the negotiating table and agree on terms favorable to Ukraine to end the war.

This was an effort seize on the momentum of repeat drone hits on Russian refinery and energy infrastructure - a reality Russia has suffered over many months, leading to an ongoing fuel crisis spanning dozens of cities and regions, and especially Crimea, which earlier in the summer had to temporarily halt fuel sales to common citizens for a time.

In mid-June, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov proclaimed  "Hell is beginning," for Russia and its military. "Logistics are being cut off. Crimea is being isolated," he said at the time. From there, drone attacks across the Moscow region greatly intensified.

But Russia in turn responded with its own major campaign. In response to major nightly long-range Ukrainian drone attacks deep into its territory, Russia sent more and more ballistic missiles on Kiev - and even the far West areas of Ukraine.

On Friday Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has essentially declared Zelensky's 40-day campaign to be defeated and moot. He described in a fresh media interview that not only will Russian forces implement a tougher response against Ukraine, but will go after the sources of Western support. He specifically raised the issue of the United States and its role.

via Associated Press

"We have submitted a series of questions to the State Department requesting comment, including on the matter of intelligence data and the fact that the US is far more deeply involved in organizing and executing strikes deep within Russian territory against civilian targets. We await a response," Lavrov told state television, as quoted in Reuters.

"Russia will intensify its military campaign in Ukraine and seek to destroy every element used by the West to sustain Kiev’s war effort," the top diplomat said.

The Foreign Ministry has of late accused Ukraine of "brazen acts of ​terrorism" against shipping in the Black Sea, amid tit-for-tat ongoing attacks which have disrupted energy and grain shipping.

"We will not sink to their level. Instead, we will adopt much harsher methods to destroy everything that enables the West to fuel Kiev’s war machine. We are already doing this, and they are already moaning," Lavrov asserted.

On the question of initiatives toward peace which Washington once prioritized (but now no longer seems to), Lavrov quoted Putin as saying while alluding back to the Alaska summit:

"Donald, you sent ​us proposals, and I’ve given them some thought. There are matters that require compromise. But I ‌accept ⁠your proposals in the form you sent them to me."

As for Lavrov's questions on Washington's covert targeting support to Ukraine, the Trump administration is unlikely to give a direct response or acknowledgement to the query. 

President Trump at this start of his term vowed repeatedly to find a swift end to the war and a lasting peace, but this has remained elusive, and instead it appears he has kept up US intelligence and weapons support to Kiev - something that many MAGA supporters wanted to see a halt to.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 12:00

'I Shot Brian Thompson': Luigi Mangione Pleads Guilty To Federal Charges In UnitedHealthcare CEO Killing

Luigi Mangione, the 28-year-old accused of assassinating UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court on Friday to the federal charges against him - admitting that he went to New York with the intent to kill Thompson.

Luigi Mangione attends a pre-trial appearance at Manhattan Criminal Court on August 11, 2026 in New York City. David Dee Delgado/Pool/Getty Images

The plea came during an 11 a.m. hearing before U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett, added to the calendar at the last minute this week at the joint request of prosecutors and Mangione's defense team.

"I shot Brian Thompson," he told Garnett.

Members of Brian Thompson's family were present in the courtroom. Outside, a crowd of Mangione supporters gathered - a fixture of his court appearances since his arrest.

Abril Rios, a self-proclaimed "Mangionistas" waits for the hearing, set to start at 11 a.m. Lone Pine Press The charges

Mangione was charged with two federal counts: interstate stalking resulting in death, and stalking through the use of interstate facilities resulting in death. Each carries a maximum sentence of life in prison.

Judge Garnett dismissed a federal murder charge in January 2026 that would have carried a potential death penalty, removing capital exposure from the federal case.

A senior Justice Department official told Fox News on Thursday that "there is no deal" - meaning Mangione would be pleading guilty without a negotiated sentencing guarantee.

The plea is the latest milestone in a case that has gripped the country since December 4, 2024.

Onlookers obsessed with the case hope to get a peek of accused murderer Luigi Mangione inside the courtroom. AFP via Getty Images

Thompson, 50, a father of two, was gunned down on a Midtown Manhattan sidewalk outside the Hilton, hours before UnitedHealth Group was set to host its annual investor conference at the hotel. After a five-day, multistate manhunt, authorities apprehended Mangione at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania.

Investigators recovered a manifesto criticizing the American health insurance industry - a discovery that split public reaction sharply. While many condemned the killing as a cold-blooded assassination, others treated Mangione as a dark symbol of mounting public frustration with the U.S. healthcare system.

A looming state battle

Friday's federal plea does not close the book. Mangione still faces a parallel state prosecution in New York for second-degree murder and weapons offenses, with trial scheduled to begin next month. Earlier terrorism-related counts in the state case have been dismissed.

The federal plea is expected to trigger an immediate clash over the state trial. Mangione's defense team is expected to argue the state case should be dismissed on double jeopardy grounds, contending he cannot be prosecuted twice for the same conduct.

"One-plus-one is two. Double jeopardy, by any common-sense definition," he shouted during a February court appearance.

The Manhattan District Attorney's Office has signaled strong opposition, arguing the federal and state charges address distinct legal harms. Legal experts have called the question genuinely open. "It is incredibly complicated," defense attorney Paul Shechtman told the New York Times earlier this month about New York's double jeopardy statute.

Retired NYPD inspector Paul Mauro suggested a plea without a deal could still serve Mangione: "He gets to serve his time in federal prison, where conditions are better, and he is hoping that the New York state double jeopardy law will knock out the state case."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 11:43

"A Big Win Today": Trump Cheers As Trade Court Upholds Shutdown Of $800 De Minimis Duty Exemption

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Court of International Trade on Aug. 13 upheld the Trump administration’s authority to end the de minimis exemption that allowed Americans to avoid paying duty on packages worth $800 or less.

The court held in a new order that President Donald Trump had legal authority to close the exemption, which he previously said was a legal loophole that benefited foreign vendors and criminals. A company had sued over the administration’s policy, claiming the president didn’t have the power to end the exemption.

The policy change, which took effect on Aug. 29, 2025, meant that all global parcel imports going forward would be subject to standard U.S. customs duties regardless of value or origin. Gifts worth less than $100 sent by individuals remained exempt.

Congress eliminated the de minimis exemption in an omnibus tax-and-spending bill in 2025, but that measure preserved the carveout until July 2027.

Trump signed Executive Order 14324 on July 30, 2025, ending the exemption, expanding a May 2025 policy that had already removed duty-free status for packages from China and Hong Kong.

The exemption had been in place in some form since 1938 and was last raised to $800 in 2015. Officials said it had become a loophole for traffickers and foreign e-commerce companies.

On Aug. 13, a three-judge panel of the New York-based court ruled against a Michigan-based auto parts importer that had challenged the rescission of the exemption. Detroit Axle argued that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not bestow independent authority on the president to revoke the exemption before July 2027.

The panel found that Trump had authority under IEEPA to end the exemption for low value imports from Canada, China, and Mexico, which he did in a series of executive orders in February 2025.

The IEEPA permits the president to rescind a trade-related “privilege,” even if that law did not allow him to levy entirely new tariffs, the trade court held.

In February, the Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources v. Trump that the IEEPA does not confer statutory authority on the president to impose sweeping tariffs. The case did not deal with the de minimis carveout.

The trade court said in its new ruling that the president’s authority to “nullify [or] void … exercising any … privilege” does not violate separation of powers principles because the presidential rescission “is not an exercise of the power of the purse, as was the case in Learning Resources, and is not an exercise of the power to legislate” as cited in a 1998 precedent.

Trump celebrated the court victory in a Truth Social post.

The exemption is “one of the most DESPICABLE loopholes in American trade policy” that has been exploited by “Fentanyl Traffickers, Counterfeiters, and other Criminals shipping dangerous and illegal products into America,” he said.

The decision means low value packages from overseas will continue to face ordinary customs duties instead of entering the country duty-free.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 11:40

NATO Jets Shoot Down Drone Over Latvia, Which Blames 'Russian Electromagnetic Warfare'

NATO jets have shot down another drone which spilled over into Baltic territory from the Ukraine war, Latvia's defense ministry announced Friday.

The fresh incident happened over eastern Latvian airspace on Friday. NATO "fighter jets have successfully shot down a foreign unmanned aerial vehicle that had entered Latvia as a result of Russian electromagnetic warfare," the ministry stated on X. 

via AFP

"The drone was destroyed over the Balvi region by aircraft taking part in NATO’s Baltic Air patrol mission," CNBC wrote based on the military statement. Further, "Latvia said airspace alerts were issued across several eastern and southern regions and lifted at 4:50 a.m. local time."

It was only described as "a foreign unmanned aerial vehicle" that had "flown into Latvia as a result of Russian electromagnetic warfare," the translated statement said. 

The reference suggests that Russian forces may have jammed and/or taken control of a Ukrainian drone, and sent it across the border. Just measures have become common for intercepting UAVs on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs hailed the military's swift response on X, saying, "This is a confirmation that Latvian airspace is protected," and added: "At the same time, such incidents remind us that we must continue to strengthen the surveillance and anti-drone capabilities of Latvia’s eastern border in order to be able to detect, identify and neutralize any potential threat as quickly as possible."

Nearby Finland took drastic safety measures as a result of the incident:

Baltic Sea neighbor Finland also imposed temporary aviation and maritime restrictions in the eastern Gulf of Finland on Friday, its defense forces said on X. 

It described the move as a precautionary measure aimed at ensuring the safety of bystanders and the operational capabilities of authorities to counter potential drones. Hours later, the governor of Russia's northwest Leningrad region said air defences had shot down 54 Ukrainian drones. 

There have been at least a half-dozen significant drone incursion incidents over the Baltic nations over just the past year, often resulting in fighter jets being scrambled. For Latvia this is at least the second recent major shootdown incident.

NEW: Allied fighter jets have shot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace in the Balvi region in northeastern Latvia.

An airspace alert was declared shortly before 04:00 across several regions, including Balvi, Rēzekne and Alūksne. The alert was lifted about an hour later… pic.twitter.com/4UMfzDin4S

— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) August 14, 2026

There have been other repeat drone incidents in Europe, for example the spate of mystery UAV sightings over Northern and Western Europe. In some cases they've shut down airports. With these, it's anyone's guess as to the origins.

Some pundits have suggested these are merely irresponsible hobbyists, or else pranksters. However, the reality of projectiles entering neighboring countries as a result of the Ukraine war is much more serious, and a significant threat to these populations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 11:20

JPMorgan Debanks Polymarket Over Regulatory Concerns; Report

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

JPMorgan Chase ended a banking relationship with Polymarket over regulatory concerns, according to the Financial Times.

JPMorgan notified the prediction market platform in October 2025 that it needed to find a new bank, the Financial Times reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Polymarket now works with an unidentified lender.

Still, JPMorgan has maintained other ties with Polymarket. The bank is allegedly keen on a potential underwriting role should Polymarket attempt to go public.

Polymarket reportedly said that it continues to have a “close, active relationship” with JPMorgan.

Cointelegraph has approached JPMorgan and Polymarket for comment.

Prediction markets are facing increasing regulatory scrutiny in the US and abroad. 

More than a dozen US states have taken legal action against Polymarket, Kalshi or both over sports event contracts, while authorities in several countries have also blocked or restricted access to Polymarket.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 11:05

Influential Wife Of Anthropic CEO Pitched Post-Conviction Epstein On 'Luxury Porn' Company, And Claude Has No Idea

Anthropic has filed confidentially for what could be the largest public offering in history. Yet, one of the most influential voices shaping its chief executive holds no official position at the company, appears in no regulatory filings, and has been quietly scrubbed from the internet. She also pitched a porn company to Jeffrey Epstein - less than two years after he got out of prison for sex trafficking minors.

Her name is Cami Clark, wife of CEO Dario Amodei. According to a Wall Street Journal investigation published Thursday, she has spent five years operating as a strategic adviser to the head of a company now seeking public capital at a valuation north of $2 trillion - all without a title, a salary, or formal disclosure.

Cami Clark and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at a summit in New Delhi in February. Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

Her marriage to Amodei has been scrubbed from Claude too... Ask Anthropic's own chatbot about Amodei's marital status, and Claude replies that it "doesn't seem to be clearly confirmed."

Someone actively worked to keep it that way. Amodei's Wikipedia page did not mention his marriage until this summer, and it still omits his wife's name. Google searches for his wife instead return photographs of his sister, Daniela Amodei, who co-runs the company. Citing its own analysis and a person familiar with the matter, the Journal reports that targeted efforts have been made to erase references to Clark online.

In 1999, at the age of 20, she married 64-year-old Reno architect Waldemar Eklof III, who had designed buildings including the city’s Atlantis Casino Resort. They divorced three years later. On a now-defunct personal website, Clark said she dropped out of architecture school in 1999. 

...

Around 2010, she and Michelle Capocefalo started Eddice, which described itself as a “revolutionary porn company.” Named for Eddice Munson, Clark’s maternal grandmother, it aimed to emphasize sex positivity in a male-oriented porn industry, and carried the tagline: “intellectually promiscuous.”  -WSJ

And she would pitch that company to Epstein... 

The emails

What was scrubbed from the web is now partly a matter of federal record. Clark appears in the Epstein files released by the Justice Department.

On March 3, 2011, literary agent John Brockman - the man who spent years introducing Jeffrey Epstein to scientists and Silicon Valley executives - emailed Epstein from a Wired party where he was the guest of honor.

"You should connect for dinner with my girls - Cami and Michele - who I met last month in Munich," Brockman wrote. "They're in LA raising money for porn movie aimed at women's market." He included a link to their site, eddice.com.

Clark replied to Epstein directly that night, copying her business partner, Michelle Capocefalo.

"Hello Jeffrey! We would love to have dinner with you this evening. Does that work for you?" She included her cell number.

A year later, she circled back. Epstein didn't remember her.

"Cami Clark, John Brockman introduced us last year at Ted," she wrote on March 8, 2012. "We have the free luxury porn company. Does that ring a bell?"

"yes,, a loud gong," Epstein replied.

"Hahaha I was going to say, you would be the first person ever that didn't remember us," Clark answered.

Epstein wrote back that he was "in the caribeanc until april. as you recall i live here" - a reference to Little St. James - "but am willing to look at whatever you think viable."

"Hahaha I was going to say, you would be the first person ever that didn't remember us :)" https://t.co/fvCv0oPiwt pic.twitter.com/mEeiMsKyAJ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 14, 2026

She pitched him on investing. Per the Journal, he declined: "Can't do sex TV." Clark then pivoted to a second venture, a social dieting app for women. The correspondence ran for roughly two years, during which she invited him to a Manhattan housewarming party and connected with him on LinkedIn.

Jeffrey Epstein was released from custody in July 2009 after pleading guilty to procuring a minor for prostitution. Brockman's introduction came in March 2011 - twenty months later.

Epstein was a registered sex offender at the time, and his conviction was highly public. The Journal explicitly notes his status in its account of the exchange.

Her blog "Eddice" was taken down long ago. But on the internet everything lasts forever...https://t.co/jREzpDWmwv https://t.co/acpnwcVngF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 14, 2026

Sounding Board

Clark does not work at Anthropic, officially. According to people close to the company who spoke to the Journal, she functions as a sounding board and strategic adviser to Amodei. She sits in the front row at his public appearances and networks with investors at Davos and the Allen & Co. conference in Sun Valley. When Narendra Modi convened AI executives in New Delhi this year and restricted each to a single guest, Amodei brought his wife.

She also brought Anthropic one of its earliest and most consequential investors. Clark dated former Google CEO Eric Schmidt from 2011 to 2014, before she met Amodei. She introduced the two men, and Schmidt - by then investing in startups - participated in Anthropic's $124 million Series A in May 2021.

She later tried to convert that relationship into a formal position.

Michelle Capocefalo and Clark at a gallery event in New York in 2010. RYAN MCCUNE/Patrick McMullan/Getty Images

In February 2021, Clark pitched Schmidt on an investment vehicle called the Mother of AGI Fund. Per a 40-page proposal reviewed by the Journal, its stated purpose was to be "an elegant solution to formalize Cami's involvement in Anthropic (Dario's company), manage Eric's investment," and invest across the broader AGI ecosystem. Daniela Amodei and other co-founders opposed it, and the proposal went nowhere. Clark and Amodei married the following year.

More recently, Clark has been carrying the company's political water - telling political insiders that Anthropic's mission is to protect America and that the company is not as "woke" as critics claim. This pivot follows the Trump administration designating Anthropic a supply-chain risk after Amodei refused to lift restrictions on the Pentagon's use of Claude - a designation the company is currently challenging in court. At Sun Valley in July, she lunched with Ivanka Trump and spoke with Jared Kushner, whom Amodei had previously approached about investing.

What about the S-1?

While none of the above is illegal, Anthropic is no longer a private startup answerable only to a handful of venture funds willing to stomach idiosyncratic risk. It filed confidentially with the SEC on June 1 and is reportedly targeting an October listing. Investors told the Financial Times the valuation could exceed $2 trillion, which would make it the largest public offering ever conducted.

Registration statements require the disclosure of related-party arrangements and material influences on management. An unpaid, untitled adviser who introduced a lead investor, proposed a fund to formalize her stake, and carries corporate political messaging is precisely the kind of dynamic institutional buyers expect to see disclosed before they price a book.

So is the fact that someone - particularly someone who actively sought Jeffrey Epstein's involvement in a porn business after he was convicted for sex trafficking minors - has been made difficult to find. Anthropic's entire commercial premise relies on being trusted with a technology it readily admits is dangerous. That pitch justifies an enormous premium to enterprise customers and, soon, to public shareholders. It rests entirely on the proposition that the company is more careful, more transparent, and more institutionally sound than its competitors.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 10:45

Tesla's New Roadster Reportedly Uses SpaceX Cold-Gas Thrusters To Fly

Tesla plans to unveil a redesigned Roadster sports car with limited "flying" capabilities later this month, The Information reported Friday morning, citing people familiar with the matter. The report follows this week's comments from Tesla's chief vehicle designer, who said the long-delayed Roadster is "coming soon."

The limited-edition Roadster reportedly uses SpaceX cold-gas thrusters to hover and will be remotely operated during the unveiling event, scheduled for later this month at the rocket company's testing site in McGregor, Texas.

"Between Elon Musk's promises of supernimble robots and interstellar colonization, the billionaire has spent plenty of time over the last decade hyping up another ambitious effort: the next version of the Roadster, the sporty electric vehicle that first put Tesla on the map. At first, he said he wanted the vehicle to be the fastest production car in the world. The Information began its report, noting that Musk is now pursuing a new "Flying" Roadster.

Tesla has moved away from the original 2017 design toward a carbon-fiber-tub architecture, with the latest prototype featuring two seats and butterfly doors. The thruster-equipped version is not expected to be street legal.

Tesla is putting cold-gas thrusters from SpaceX on the Roadster. This clip is from a podcast where you can hear them being tested. pic.twitter.com/XL6hrUV5D4 https://t.co/sKnXP4SLWP

— Robin (@xdNiBoR) August 14, 2026

Cold-gas thrusters generate lift by releasing pressurized gas through a nozzle without combustion. Common propellants include nitrogen, helium, compressed air, argon, and carbon dioxide. SpaceX uses these thrusters on the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets for pointing and roll control. 

Musk in 2018:

SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly around car. These rocket engines dramatically improve acceleration, top speed, braking & cornering. Maybe they will even allow a Tesla to fly …

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 9, 2018

Musk in 2019:

I’m not. Will use SpaceX cold gas thruster system with ultra high pressure air in a composite over-wrapped pressure vessel in place of the 2 rear seats.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 9, 2019

Musk this year:

You will get flying cars

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 12, 2026

The report also noted that Musk warned Tesla employees that the stunt later this month would be difficult to execute and could go awry, though he said it would be entertaining regardless.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 10:30

"Bin There, Done That?" Not Quite

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Markets may be suffering from a growing sense of "bin there, done that" fatigue when it comes to geopolitical shocks, but central banks are in no position to throw recent developments into the bin just yet.

Take Hormuz. Both sides now claim to firmly control the Strait, President Trump appears to favour squeezing Iran economically (or, in Bessent’s words, “economic isolation like the world has never seen before”) rather than militarily (whilst Iran’s thinking may be pretty similar!), and reports of renewed US-Iran talks continue to circulate. On the surface, the situation looks calmer than it did a few weeks ago. Yet it remains as opaque as ever. Despite investors becoming more accustomed to these episodes, the net result has still been a gradual rise in crude oil prices and a renewed climb in European gas benchmarks towards this year's highs.

That is important because this week's US inflation report, while broadly on the mark, is unlikely to settle the debate within central banks. July CPI showed further moderation, while last week's disappointing US payrolls figures strengthened the case for policy doves. However, policymakers are, once again, increasingly confronted by a growing collection of supply-side risks that have the potential to reignite inflationary pressures. Indeed, this week offered a reminder that the global economy's logistical arteries are coming under strain from multiple directions.

The White House released a report on ‘illegal’ transshipment, identifying Canada, the EU, India, Israel, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Taiwan as first tier (also because of large volumes) conduits for evading US tariffs. Although the report concludes that it “is too early to determine the net effect of the Administration’s tariff and anti-transshipment policies”, it serves as a reminder that the tariff heat remains on.

Talking about heat, Europe has entered its fifth heatwave of the year. Combined with severe drought conditions, the extreme weather is threatening agricultural yields, constraining electricity generation and disrupting transport infrastructure. Water levels on the Rhine, which accounts for around 80% of Germany's inland waterway freight transport, have dropped towards critical levels. Transport costs (gasoline barge) from Rotterdam to Cologne have doubled (even quadrupled since end of June), creating yet another bottleneck for European industry.

Nor are these challenges confined to Europe.

Attention may shift towards Panama later this year, where a strengthening El Niño threatens to reduce rainfall and inflows into Gatun Lake, the key water source for the Panama Canal. Shipping restrictions are already being discussed as water levels remain below seasonal norms. Unsurprisingly, container freight rates continue to climb, with Shanghai-New York shipping costs reaching their highest level in more than two years and Shanghai-LA picking up again as well.

Ironically, climate change may also create new future opportunities. Climate change may imply softer European winters (lower gas demand?) and higher aggregate agricultural production due to longer growing seasons, particularly in Northern Europe. Similarly, Arctic shipping routes are becoming increasingly navigable, potentially cutting travel times between Asia and Europe dramatically. Yet that is a story for the future. For now, the list of constraints remains considerably longer than the list of potential positive externalities.

The grain market offers a particularly striking example. Exports from both Russia and Ukraine are facing severe disruption. Ukrainian Black Sea ports have been closed for weeks following intensified attacks, while low Danube water levels are limiting alternative routes. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes have disrupted Russian export infrastructure in both the Sea of Azov and around Novorossiysk. Taken together, these disruptions affect a substantial share of global wheat exports and reinforce the increasingly constructive outlook for agricultural prices.

Viewed in isolation, none of these developments necessarily forces a central bank response. Taken together, however, they help explain why policymakers remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation.

The Fed is a case in point. While softer inflation and weaker labor market data support the argument for remaining on hold, hawks will continue to question whether inflation can sustainably return to target in an environment characterized by geopolitical uncertainty, higher commodity prices and recurring supply disruptions. Our base case remains that the FOMC stays on hold for the remainder of this year, but the risk of another hike cannot be dismissed.

In Japan, the debate looks even more skewed towards further tightening. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has once again stressed the importance of Bank of Japan independence while also emphasizing the need to achieve the inflation target sustainably. Following the recent intervention to support the yen, policymakers are increasingly aware that exchange-rate management ultimately requires support from monetary policy. As USD/JPY retraces some of its earlier decline, the case for another BoJ hike is gradually strengthening.

Australia tells a similar story. The RBA left rates unchanged this week, and markets initially interpreted the accompanying statement as relatively dovish. Governor Bullock quickly pushed back against that view, revealing that policymakers debated both holding and hiking, and noting that another increase remains "quite possible". The RBA clearly hopes previous tightening will prove sufficient. We remain unconvinced and continue to expect one more hike later this year.

Even in the UK, where the Bank of England remains reluctant to tighten further, yesterday's stronger-than-expected GDP data provided ammunition for the hawks. Growth was broad-based, investment contributed positively and GDP per capita rose by a healthy 0.4% q/q. As our UK strategist Stefan Koopman notes, however, caution is warranted. Britain has developed a habit of strong first halves followed by disappointing second halves. The key question is whether 2026 finally breaks that pattern.

And then there is Clacton. Yesterday's by-election evolved into one of the more uniquely British political events in recent memory, with Nigel Farage facing not Labour or the Conservatives, but the satirical Count Binface. Taking 62.8% of the vote, a clear improvement compared to his 2024 results, may help Reform UK to claim voters have effectively binned recent controversies. Yet, without a serious opponent from the other mainstream parties including Labour, one could question that of course. The upshot, though, is that the anti-establishment and populist wave is far from out in the UK.

All taken together, the broader lesson for markets is clear. Investors may increasingly feel that they have seen these shocks before. But central bankers cannot afford to adopt a bin-it-and-move-on approach. For them, the accumulation of supply-side risks remains impossible to ignore. And as long as that is the case, another rate hike somewhere in the world remains firmly on the table.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 10:15

UMich Sentiment Slumps In August As War Re-Escalated, Inflation Fears Tick-Up

Following July's rebound to pre-war levels, the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was expected to weaken modestly as the MidEast re-escalated (and with it the price of gas).

Sure enough, the headline sentiment index tumbled from 55.2 to 51.0 (55.0 exp) with both Current Conditions (51.8 vs 54.8 prior vs 54.9 exp) and Expectations (50.6 vs 55.4 prior vs 55.2 exp) also both tumbling...

Decreases in sentiment were seen across the political spectrum, with Republicans exhibiting the strongest month-to-month decline in August. Sentiment among Republicans is now 19% below readings just prior to the Iran conflict and the lowest since the 2024 election.

Although the early-month weakening in sentiment was pervasive across various demographic groups, notably large reductions were seen among older consumers, lower-income consumers, and those without a college degree.

As Surveys of Consumers Director, Joanne Hsu noted: "these groups are all particularly vulnerable to any erosion of purchasing power stemming from inflation."

Across all consumers, only 8% expect their income growth to exceed inflation in the year ahead, down from 18% in December 2024, a reflection of the belief that high prices will continue to be burdensome.

While views of personal finances saw only minor declines, expected business conditions sank 11% for the short run and 17% for the long run.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.2% in July to 4.3% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings.

Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.3% for the third consecutive month, remaining a bit higher than its 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.

Interestingly, it is Republicans' fear of inflation that is flat to rising (admittedly from very low levels) while Democrats and Independents see inflation continuing to slow...

Slowing inflation (CPI/PPI), weaker retail sales, and now sentiment sliding... not exactly a recipe for rate-hikes...

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 10:08

More Than Two-Thirds Of The Power Sought For US Data Centers Will Never Materialize

It was almost a year ago, in November 2025, when we first calculated that the AI supercycle was facing a huge problem: namely, a power shortfall of (at least) 44 nuclear power plants, or GW or energy, by 2028.

A Huge Problem For The AI Revolution: A Power Shortfall Of 44 Nuclear Power Plants By 2028 https://t.co/2ciiUudp8T

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 12, 2025

Fast forward to last week when we made another stunning discovery: the reason why Texas Gov Abbott froze the rollout of new data centers in his state is because the number of interconnection requests facing ERCOT had risen to a mindblowing 474 GW (of which 90% were data centers), when the state's highest ever power demand just hit 91GW. Needless to say, this will never happen in (maybe) a hundred years, but it does prompt the question we have been asking for years: where will the energy come from.

How mathematically impossible is the energy math behind the data center rollout? Just Texas alone is facing 474GW of interconnection requests (ERCOT), of which 90% is data centers. Which is why gov Abbott froze rollout of new data centers in Texas.

For context, ERCOT all-time… pic.twitter.com/sdl26FPmwL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 8, 2026

Well, as it turns out, the answer is nowhere. According to new projections from Wood Mackenzie, zmore than two-thirds of the electricity sought for the artificial intelligence boom in the US isn't likely to materialize due to "phantom" projects and long-shot pitches.

The consultancy, which was inspired by not only our recent use of the term "bragawatts", but the Bernstein report it came from (link here for pro subs) which reached the same conclusion...

Think it's just about tokens? Think again: the next AI crisis is real compute vs "bragawatts"

"We certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but we have spent a lot of time in the data center industry and think we’re pretty good at sniffing out the real builds from the “bragawatts”.…

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 21, 2026

... said it sees US grid operators and utilities likely committing to about 28% of the 1,066 gigawatts requested for data center projects (as most know by now, a gigawatt is the equivalent generating capacity of a traditional nuclear reactor: enough energy to power about 750,000 households for a year, or about 10-30 data centers).

While certainly no one expects every proposed project to be built, Bloomberg notes that the data reveals how inflated projections of future power demand complicate planning and budgeting by utilities and grid operators. That can translate into higher utility bills, since capital costs for upgrading infrastructure are typically covered through rate hikes.

"Everyone's trying to figure out the rules of the road in order to make this the most efficient process without increasing grid prices," said Alex Klaessig, co-founder of energy market intelligence firm Halcyon.

Developers have been taking a shotgun approach to pitching projects to utilities, seeking to get ahead in the AI build-out. That's overwhelming US grids and creating even more data center bottlenecks. The explosion of requests is stretching approval timelines, forcing more applications to be vetted than ever before, and threatening to undermine US efforts to compete in the global AI race. It's what prompted Texas to put a pause on all data center construction.

Of course, the counterfactual by the pro-AI lobby immediately emerged, to wit: "If we don't allow these data centers to come online as fast as we can, then we might lose the future benefits of AI," Klaessig said, oblivious that the future benefits of AI are already as good as lost when one considers that at this very moment China is building 37 nuclear reactors while the US is building... zero.

Meanwhile, just like double (and triple, and quadruple) ordering in the semiconductor industry, some developers are pitching the same project to multiple utilities, with plans to push ahead with the application that lands the best deal and speediest approval. That creates what the industry calls "phantom" applications, complicating efforts to accurately forecast true power demand.

"Grid operators don't know which ones are real and which ones aren't," said Glenn Schwartz, who heads energy policy at consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. He estimates that only 20% to 30% of the power that developers are seeking will go toward projects that get built, due in part to phantom requests.

Flooded grid queues aren't specific to data centers: renewables projects are regularly hampered by long wait times to connect to electrical networks across the world.

While it's impossible to determine how many requests are duplicates, Reid Ramdathsingh of Rystad Energy estimates about half of the applications are credible on the biggest US grid, operated by PJM Interconnection LLC, which serves 67 million Americans from Illinois to Virginia. He sees 14% of applications as legitimate on the main grid in Texas, a state that has seen the fastest data center growth.

PJM said in a statement that it has taken steps to improve the forecasting of large loads.

Of course, the 1,066 gigawatts of applications cited by Wood Mackenzie would require a staggering jump in US electric capacity. The amount represents 83% of the nation's total utility-scale generation capacity at the end of last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. 

Making matters worse and adding to the chaos, many applications are from firms with no prior experience building facilities with energy needs that can rival mid-sized cities. The projects of those first-time developers are often disproportionately large, though generally less likely to come to fruition than those from well-established big technology firms, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Caitlin Connelly.

To crack down on the barrage of requests, many utilities have introduced steep upfront application costs, demanding big-money collateral and near-perfect credit ratings. Such requirements are squeezing small to mid-sized developers that often pay project costs up front and then sell completed facilities to well-capitalized AI companies.

Getting through a queue used to be straightforward with utilities offering up electricity to developers, according to Brad Richter, senior vice president of energy at Hut 8 Corp., which manages 11 data centers. Now, for the most part, utilities are saying, 'I don't have it anymore,'" Richter said, noting that those power providers are increasingly "closed for business."

As we reported previously, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered regulators on Aug. 3 to audit every data center seeking access to the state's main grid, effectively pausing those projects' approvals until reviews are complete. His surprise call puts $13 billion in industry revenues at risk and threatens to delay almost a fifth of America's data center pipeline in the medium term, according to BloombergNEF.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is tracking about 474 gigawatts of connection requests, with around 90% of those from data centers, according to Abbott. That total, Bloomberg notes paraphrasing verbatim what we said earlier this week,  "is more than five times the system's record peak demand."

Ercot uses multiple screening stages to distinguish between speculative and credible projects, a spokesperson said.

Exelon Corp., a utility owner serving customers from Illinois to Delaware, in July slashed its pipeline of energy demands from data centers by nearly 40%, leaving a queue of about 11 gigawatts. Exelon is prioritizing connection requests that are likely to come to fruition.

"Utilities are using what they'll refer to as a 'first-ready, first-served' model, as opposed to a 'first-come, first-served' model, to weed out folks that really don't have the capability to deliver," said Brian Janous of Cloverleaf Infrastructure LLC, which works with utilities to develop ready-to-build sites for data center users and providers. 

And for a more detailed follow up on what this lack of energy means, we urge readers to go through the latest report by Bernstein's Madison Rezaei, titled "Data Center Pipeline Probabilities: Separating the credible developers from dudes with PowerPoints," (available to pro subscribers), in which the bank writes that "of the 492GW of capacity currently in our dataset, we anticipate 33% (135GW) are credible builds. There are a series of haircuts in progress here, the most meaningful of which is the stage - we consider physical construction progress to be a major indicator of credibility, whereas shiny press releases only go so far. The tenant haircut is the next most pronounced - for a high-quality, IG tenant, certainty goes up; whereas for some of the miners or longtail neoclouds, credibility is lower. The sponsor haircut is also meaningful, though less so than the prior two - this is a fast-moving space and we didn’t want to overpenalize new entrants who are showing clear signs of development and tenant signing. And finally, while there is lots of talk of NIMBYism and legislative hurdles, it is not a big loss for DC builds today (in fairness, we are grandfathering in builds that are already in progress)."

Rezaei continues: "We’re infrastructure people, so we tend to skew conservative and not give meaningful credit for announcements before we see progress of builds. That’s how we end up at the ~33% build rate. Importantly, we are not taking a stand (today) on the actual timing of that pipeline. The dataset would suggest target delivery of ~88GW by the end of 2028 (highly unlikely). We would consider the 135GW number to be a 5-10 year build (almost certainly undercounting for the out years)."

Bottom line: very little of the bombastic projections you see and hear every single day about the pace and size of the AI rollout will ever materialize. That also means that so much of the capital already invested in said rollout will be wasted. The question is how big the negative impact on stocks will be when people finally do the math. 

More in the Bernstein report available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 09:20

Bessent: US Readies Economic Isolation Of Iran "Like The World Has Never Seen Before"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax Thursday night that the Trump administration will announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran next week, signaling that a sharp escalation in economic warfare is just ahead as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. The warning comes as Tehran-linked Houthi rebel forces resume attacks on Saudi Aramco energy infrastructure, raising concerns that the conflict is spreading geographically and pushing Brent crude futures higher.

Bessent told Rob Schmitt of Newsmax:

And, you know, at the president's orders, we have raised the level even again, and watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country. And I think the reason we are succeeding is because it is a one-two punch.

People say, well, you know, Cuba lasted a long time. Venezuela lasted a long time. Venezuela immediately crumbled when we put the blockade on. So, it will be a combination of economic isolation like the world has never seen before and the continued blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that will keep anything from going in or out of the Iranian ports.

Watch Bessent

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced upcoming unprecedented economic measures against Iran amid ongoing blockades of its ports pic.twitter.com/OV3etgd2k0

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) August 14, 2026

By the midpoint of this week, we explained that, with US-Iran talks stalled, President Trump was more than likely to "opt for economic siege warfare, as the US military campaign is on hold."

Trump recently told Axios that he is "low-keying it" with Iran. "We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money," he said.

Washington has imposed roughly 2,200 sanctions-related designations on Tehran since 2018, according to Jeremy Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard & Reed who tracks Iran's energy industry. The scale of the existing sanctions architecture underscores the challenge facing the Trump administration as it seeks to exert additional leverage on Tehran.

"If 47 years of sanctions haven't broken Tehran's will, more of the same is unlikely to produce any changes," according to a Bloomberg Economics report led by Jennifer Welch. She noted that the most likely scenario is that Trump stays on the same path as before, maintaining sanctions and the blockade.

The Trump administration's accelerated pivot toward economic warfare, rather than renewed strikes on Iran's missile and drone capabilities along the Hormuz chokepoint or an operation against Kharg Island, likely reflects growing concern over the "perfect storm" developing in refined-products markets. With the global diesel crisis intensifying and crack spreads approaching $100 level, further strikes risk triggering a severe supply shock to the fuel that powers global industries. It would also be a political disaster if gasoline and diesel prices at US pumps soared even higher with just 81 days left until the midterm elections (read diesel crisis report). 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 09:00

Farage Crushes Clacton By-Election With 63% As Comedy Candidates Dominate Longest Ballot In British History

Nigel Farage has romped to victory in the Clacton by-election with 63.3% of the vote, seeing off 33 rivals including Count Binface, who won a quarter of the votes cast, on the longest ballot paper in British electoral history.

The Reform UK leader secured victory with 22,239 votes, which was 63.3% of the total vote and an increase on the 21,225 votes he secured when he was elected to the Essex seat at the 2024 General Election.

Count Binface, a comedian standing as a 5,900-year-old space warrior whose key policy was to freeze the price of ice cream in Clacton at 99p, was second with 9,455 votes, 26.9% of the total vote.

Mr Farage had triggered the poll and cast it as a ‘people vs the Establishment’ contest amid mounting questions over a £5 million donation from cryptocurrency tycoon Christopher Harborne.

However, a parliamentary inquiry into Mr Harborne’s donation has yet to conclude, and Mr Farage could still face another by-election within months if he is found to have broken House of Commons rules. He is expected to be interviewed by a standards watchdog within weeks of MPs returning to Westminster after their summer break.

The Reform leader, 62, declared himself the winner of the Clacton by-election in the early hours of Friday morning while ballot papers were still being counted. He then took the unprecedented step of skipping the formal result declaration, with his party claiming police had advised him to stay away due to a ‘credible threat’.

But, as Mark Angelides reports for LibertyNation.com, none of the big parties fielding a contender, what remains is who wins the narrative war.

Farage Stands Down to Step Up

The election was triggered by Farage resigning his seat last month. He did so voluntarily because of mounting stories over his financial situation, including donations and gifts he had received before running for Parliament. His argument was that it should be the voters of Clacton who decide his political fate rather than a scrutiny committee.

To be abundantly clear, Mr. Farage receiving a gift of £5 million is not illegal. Not declaring it is a breach of protocol because it occurred within 12 months of him running for office. With his return to the House of Commons, the internal investigation will continue. But what is the likely outcome? And what punishment – if any – is likely to befall the veteran campaigner?

If he is found to have broken the rules, the committee could suspend him from the House for a short period. In such a case, there is a possibility of a recall petition that would trigger a fresh by-election – which poses a conundrum. The purpose of such a contest would be to determine whether his Clacton constituency still had faith in him to be its Member of Parliament. This question was put to bed yesterday with Farage increasing his vote count and share compared with the 2024 general election.

And crucially, Nigel will have spent the last six weeks in his constituency gathering data. If he ends up having to fight yet another election, he will have up-to-date major information which other parties do not have access to. When it comes to campaigning, the data advantage cannot be underestimated.

But, as ever, the knives are out for Nigel Farage.

Establishment Closes Ranks

Former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, before his ousting, described Farage’s Reform Party as a threat to the nation. This is echoed across the myriad parties that make up British Parliament. In other recent by-elections, we have seen parties run what can best be described as paper candidates to unite around any party other than Reform.

The dominant narrative from the more established party leaders is that although they refused to stand a candidate in this “stunt” election triggered by Farage, they would certainly stand one in the potential next contest after the results of the scrutiny committee are released. But it is more than reasonable to argue that the other parties did engage in yesterday’s election. Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch posted on social media that voters should support “the Bin,” a reference to a parody candidate, “Count Binface,” who wears a trashcan on his head and a shiny “spacesuit.” By tacitly backing any competitor – even a joke contender – the party essentially threw its hat in the ring. Notably, Count Binface came second with almost 27%.

A Political Parallel

The current mantra is that Nigel Farage has triggered an unnecessary election that has cost taxpayers roughly £250,000 and was an affront to voters. And yet the same voices uttered no such displeasure when now-PM Andy Burnham was the beneficiary of a palace coup through a similar mechanism earlier this year.

With around 24,000 votes from one of the Labour Party’s safest seats, Mr. Burnham was drafted into Parliament and installed as leader and PM without a general election or even a vote by the party members. For those who do not support Labour, there is the mild stench of hypocrisy.

Both politicians foisted a by-election on the British public to better secure their positions. One did so to retain his position, the other to gain advancement.

Where is Reform Now?

Mr. Farage’s Reform Party has dominated polling for the last 18 months. While Mr. Burnham’s Labour Party has received a polling bounce of around 6% – quite a typical bump when a leader is changed mid-Parliament – almost every survey has suggested Reform would be the largest party at the next general election.

Farage is a threat to the Westminster establishment that has not been seen in at least 100 years. Assuming he navigates the committee's results and commits no major faux pas in the next three years, he may well be Prime Minister. And more so, he may be the harbinger of doom for the Conservative Party and relegate Labour to a desultory second-place finish.

It seems no wonder that the Westminster establishment wants to end his career as early as possible.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:45

World Cup Hangover Triggers Retail Sales Slump In July, K-Shaped Economy Waning

Based on BofA's almost omniscient analysts, traders should expect a big disappointment this morning from US retail sales as the bank's data showed a huge drop in online retail (card not present) in July...

...because Prime Day and related promotions were pulled forward from July to June this year. Many other retail categories also saw m/m declines, including clothing, gas (due to lower prices) and furniture. Other factors driving the weakness in July likely included the heat wave around July 4 weekend and a modest post-World-Cup hangover effect.

And once again, BofA was right... US Retail Sales plunged 0.6% MoM in July (+0.1% MoM exp) - the biggest MoM drop since May 2025. This drop slowed the annual rise in retail sales to +5.0% YoY (still solid)...

Interestingly, unadjusted retail sales rose in July...

Both headline and core sales growth slowed YoY...

Most importantly, the 'Control Group' - which plugs directly into GDP calculation - dropped 0.4% MoM (dramatically worse than the +0.3% MoM rise expected).

Additionally, UBS noted that a key risk to the July data was fading support from larger tax refunds compliments of the OBBBA and that could be part of the disappointment today.

Under the hood, it was very mixed. A drop in gasoline station spending makes sense as gas prices dropped (before re-accelerating in August)...

But, the decline in online (non-store) retailer sales stands out...

This was the second biggest MoM drop Nonstore Retailers sales since COVID (likely due to the calendar shift form Prime Day as mentioned above)...

Real retail sales - admittedly roughly adjusted for CPI - remains positive, but slowed significantly in July...

Finally, the The latest BofA data provides additional evidence that K-shaped dynamics are waning. In each of the four weeks ending Aug 1, y/y total BAC card spending growth was stronger among lower- than higher-income HHs.

And this isn’t just due to higher gas prices. Even in discretionary categories, the “K” has turned into a “C” over the last couple of months: lower-income spending looks solid, while higher-income spending has cooled off modestly.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:38

Russia Quickly Rejects Ukraine's Offer Of Ceasefire On Black Sea Shipping

Ukraine has quietly floated a deal through a third-party mediator to halt reciprocal strikes on civilian vessels in the Black Sea, Reuters reports, in what appears to be a calculated bid to unfreeze a critical global commodity corridor and to relieve pressure on Ukraine's battered wartime economy.

The maritime artery remains a vital economic lifeline for both nations, channeling massive volumes of grain and agricultural supplies to world markets - especially the Middle East and Africa - but there's now been weekly and almost daily tit-for-tat attacks. 

via Reuters

With roughly 90% of Ukrainian grain and sunflower shipments departing from the primary port cluster of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenne, the fallout on Ukraine's agricultural sector has been severe.

Kyiv Post cites that as a result grain exports have fallen 76% year-on-year so far in August. But the publication notes that the pressure is longer one-sided, as "on Wednesday, Ukraine launched a major coordinated strike on Novorossiysk, Russia’s key Black Sea naval and grain-export hub, forcing all three grain terminals to suspend operations and hitting naval infrastructure."

It didn't take long on Friday for the Kremlin to dismiss the idea of a Black Sea ceasefire, blaming Ukrainian acts of "terrorism" against maritime traffic. ​Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused charged Kiev with "brazen acts of ​terrorism" against shipping.

"We view these attacks (by Ukraine) as a deliberate policy aimed at destabilizing ​civilian shipping in the Black Sea region to further escalate tensions and ​prolong the conflict, all with the blatant acquiescence of regional neighbours," Zakharova said.

"At the same time, we see no signs of improvement in the situation and, consequently, ​no grounds for half-measures that merely grant the Kyiv regime a temporary ​breathing space," she added.

Part of this grinding war of attrition if for each side to impose as much economic pain as possible, and Ukraine will be more easily squeezed by blocking its ability to export and import - given its key ports are all concentrated along its Black Sea coast.

Russian forces had hit more than 80 vessels believed involved in supplying the Ukrainian military in the month of July alone, state TASS wrote recently based on official defense ministry data.

Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew. It has accused Ukraine of seeking to hide military shipments under the guise of civilian cargo transit.

But comes amid a Turkish request to State to transfer ATACMS and cluster munitions to Ukraine. Turkey’s preferred side in the Black Sea conflict isn’t a well-kept secret. https://t.co/iCuJaSkq2n

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) August 14, 2026

Russia's reaction is somewhat expected, given it has long voiced that it has no interest in short-term ceasefires which could only allow Ukraine forces to rearm and regroup; instead, it will only settle for a lasting and permanent political solution at end to the conflict.

Of course, in Moscow's view this means official recognition of the seized eastern territories and Crimea as Russian sovereign land. President Putin himself has made clear that he will not stop the 'special military operation' until at least this is fully accomplished.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:20

Stocks Set To Post Fresh All Time High As Tech Euphoria Returns

Futures are fractionally higher, as they have been much of this supercharged week which pushed stocks to new all tim ehighs, amid quiet news flow this morning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after the index closed at a record on Thursday. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%, with the tech benchmark set for a 1.2% gain in the week. Momentum darling Sandisk rallied almost 6% in premarket trading after surging double digits yesterday and is now up 60% from its lows less than two weeks ago;  Mag 7 stocks mostly unchanged with MSFT and META showing some modest declines as investors continued to focus on OpenAI’s plans for a Wall Street debut. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher, led by 30y. A Reuters article reported that BOJ is eyeing September rate hike and faster pace of tightening, affirming the recent hawkish bias: OIS now sees 81% probability of a September hike (vs. ~65% last Friday). Commodities are modestly higher: oil moved 0.6% higher; gold added 0.1% this morning. US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.5%, Microsoft -0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet 0.0%, Apple 0.0%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta -0.1%)

• Dronemakers including AeroVironment (AVAV) are higher after the Trump administration said it is applying a 100% tariff on imports of unmanned aircraft systems and their components. AeroVironment shares are up 3%.
• Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) rises 8% after Jefferies started coverage on the semiconductor manufacturing company with a buy rating, citing the firm’s growth profile.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) falls 5% after the semiconductor capital equipment company’s estimate-topping forecast met with tepid investor reaction following the stock’s frenetic rally this year.
• ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) sinks 14% after the company pushed back the timeline for the biotech to reach cash-flow breakeven to the end of 2027. The firm’s management previously expected to reach that mark by the middle of 2027.
• Capricor (CAPR) surges 100% after the drug developer said it plans to amend its biologics license application for its drug to treat a rare muscle disease and that the FDA has indicated it is willing to review this amendment. The news spurred an upgrade at Cantor.
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) falls 6% after the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins reported a wider-than-expected adjusted Ebitda loss for the second quarter amid crypto trading declines.
• Globant (GLOB) falls 11% after the IT-services company cut its full-year forecast. It also gave a third-quarter forecast that was weaker than the analyst consensus estimate.
• Nubank (NU) gains 10% after the Brazilian fintech reported second-quarter net income that beat the average analyst estimate and saw its 15 to 90-day non-performing loan ratio improve.
• Reddit (RDDT) jumps 10% as the social media company is set to join the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading on Aug. 18.
• Sandisk (SNDK) rises 6%, set to extend Thursday’s 14% rally, as JPMorgan assigns an overweight rating following the firm’s investor day.
• York Space (YSS) is down 17% after the space and defense company cut the revenue outlook for the full year.

Tech shares again lifted the S&P 500 to fresh highs this month as investors piled into beaten-down semiconductor and other AI-related stocks, with second-quarter earnings exceeding already lofty expectations. After a benign consumer inflation print and producer price data this week, US retail sales numbers on Friday could provide more clues on the direction of Fed policy ahead of next month’s meeting, although according to real-time BofA card spending data, expect a big miss when the data is released at 8:30am.

And speaking of Bank of America, its CIO Michael Hartnett said the “door wide open for bulls to rip risk higher.” He cites soaring earnings, a $10 trillion wealth surge in 2026 and over $1 trillion of AI capex expected in 2027. But most notably he says AI is now so big it is the market, and policymakers simply can not allow stocks to fall as it will spark an economic crash. 

Elsewhere, the chip bubble is baaaaack: South Korea’s Kospi Index - a bellwether for retail and momentum euhoria in chip names - added over 2% Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 11% and snapping a seven-week losing streak. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both advanced more than 15% over the past five days.

“A huge amount of hyperscaler money is flowing into hardware,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “That is translating into extremely strong sales and profit growth for hardware companies. Investors are returning to the idea of, ‘let’s look at the earnings themselves again.’”

Meanwhile, the threat of lofty energy prices reigniting inflation remains. Brent crude jumped almost 2% on Friday, before reversing the move to trade around $87 a barrel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised unprecedented “economic isolation” for Iran and a “one-two punch” that includes the continued blockade of the country’s ports. 

European shares hover near record highs with continued support from the artificial intelligence trade and after the region’s equity funds notched their largest inflows in six months. The Stoxx 600 is little changed as software and IT stocks rally, boosted by a report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. HelloFresh falls to a record low after a downgrade at Barclays. Here are the biggest movers:

• European software and IT stocks post broad-based gains on Friday, with sentiment boosted by a Reuters report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. SAP, Dassault Systemes and Nemetschek are among gainers.
• Maersk shares gain as much as 6.5% after an upgrade to hold from sell. The shipping company appears to have scope for a further guidance upgrade, and “ample room” for share buybacks over 2027-28.
• Aviva shares rise slightly, briefly reaching their highest level since May 2018, after the insurer’s first-half operating profit exceeded estimates. Analysts note the beat was supported by reserve releases, tempering the market reaction.
• Autostore shares extend a post-earnings rally after the stock was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, which cites multiple consecutive quarters of improving momentum, stronger customer engagement and a growing backlog at the warehouse automation firm.
• DFDS shares rise as much as 21%, the steepest gain since 2008, after the shipping and logistics firm raised its revenue growth outlook for the year.
• Talanx shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most in over a year, after the insurer’s second-quarter net income came in comfortably ahead of estimates and supported a lift to its guidance for the full year.
• Napatech shares rally as much as 25%, the most in over three months, after the Danish company that provides Programmable Network Interface Cards used in data centers said it has secured a follow-on production order related to a major AI-infrastructure design win secured in 2025.
• Cohort shares gain as much as 7.4%, the most since early July, after the electronic and surveillance technology solutions company announces that its German unit ELAC was awarded a contract to supply integrated sonar systems for the Polish Orka submarine program in collaboration with Saab.
• VZ Holding shares jump as much as 10% after the provider of investment advisory services beat expectations in the first half.
• HelloFresh shares fall to a record low as Barclays downgrades to underweight and assigns a Street-low price target, saying questions remain about the meal kit provider’s top line.
• EnergieKontor shares plummet as much as 18% and hit their lowest level since 2020 after the wind-energy producercut its earnings goal after markets closed yesterday, just hours after reaffirming its guidance.
• GB Group shares fall as much as 27%, their steepest drop since 2009, after the identity verification and fraud prevention company lowered its full-year revenue guidance.

Asian stocks rose, poised for their best week in two months, as the AI tech rally regains momentum on fading concerns over Federal Reserve rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.7% Friday, extending its weekly gain to about 3%. South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi gained for a fifth-straight session, its longest streak since mid-June, while Japanese equities also advanced. Indonesian stocks gained after an address to the nation by President Prabowo Subianto before its budget. After last month’s volatile selloff, the AI trade is getting back on track following the latest corporate results. Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan are set for their biggest weekly foreign inflow in months, a sign that global investors are returning after a historic selloff.  “Once traders start searching for yield again, they tend to gravitate back toward that AI and tech picture,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Bloomberg TV. “I think that the US earnings season went some way into dispelling some of the fears that were building up about valuations and sustainability of operating margins.” Elsewhere, Hang Seng had its biggest weekly decline in seven weeks. Vietnam fell most in Asia on financial concerns. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% and is on course for its largest decline since last week’s payrolls miss. The Norwegian krone is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.5%, also helped by higher oil prices. The kiwi is also at top of the leaderboard after underperforming on Thursday. USD/JPY edges down toward 159. European stocks are little changed while futures are pointing to a fairly flat open on Wall Street.

In rates, long-end Treasuries hold losses in early US session, with yields higher by around 1-2bp and extending this week’s curve-steepening move amid similar price action in European bond markets. The US sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield in a quarter century on Thursday, underscoring the premium investors are demanding to finance the nation’s deficits. US 10-year yield near 4.65% is less than 1bp higher on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by 2.5bp and 2bp; WTI crude futures are up about 0.5%, off session highs. With front-end and belly yields edging lower, US 2s10s spread widens nearly 2bp to 52bp, widest since May 21 and near 200-DMA which has broadly held since March; 5s30s spread is more than 2bp wider near 92bp, last seen May 14. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs rise 3 bps each. IG credit new-issue slate empty so far. Three companies sold a combined $5.85 billion on Thursday, paying about 11bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.6 times oversubscribed. Start of next week has the potential to be relatively active.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures advance as talks around reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue to show limited progress. Brent crude futures rise 0.7% to around $87.60 a barrel and that’s hampered bonds.

US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The United States on Thursday said that it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and would ratchet up economic pressure on Tehran as ceasefire talks have floundered, global oil supply is dropping and regional tensions are rising. RTRS
• The US is pressing NATO allies to demonstrate support for Donald Trump’s policies, as it reviews potential troop cuts in Europe. BBG
• Ukraine has sent Russia an offer suggesting they both halt attacks ‌on civilian targets in the Black Sea, a source said, after mounting strikes on vessels and ports there raised fears over global food supplies. RTRS
• China’s auto factories are building so many cars for export that the global shipping industry can’t keep up. Specialized car carriers, essentially floating parking garages, are booked out years ahead to export cars from Chinese factories. Rates to charter ships are up 65% this year on the surging demand to move vehicles out of China. WSJ
• Tariffs latest: The US is imposing a 100% duty on some imported drones and their components, a move that may significantly affect China. Australia said the US agreed to “consider full exemption or, at the very least, no increase” to the tariffs. BBG
• The BoJ is set to raise interest rates as soon as ‌September and is considering hiking more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, said three sources familiar with its thinking. RTRS
• Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen are creating fresh opportunities as investors return to carry trades — borrowing the low-yielding currency to buy higher-returning assets. BBG
• Leading US AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic are releasing cheaper models as they fight to retain cost-conscious customers who are switching to cut-price alternatives from Chinese rivals. The price war comes as rising AI bills push companies to curb usage and seek cheaper models, helping Chinese developers including Moonshot and DeepSeek make inroads with users from Silicon Valley to Europe. FT
• OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40 billion based on its current performance, people familiar said. The ChatGPT maker’s revenue has accelerated in recent months. BBG
• Fitch affirmed the US at AA+, outlook stable, while it stated that the US rating is supported by a large economy, high per capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility. However, it also commented that labour demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026, while it expects inflation to move towards the target by year-end 2028.
• US White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker will leave the administration in coming weeks: Axios

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region only partially sustained the positive handover from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, and the Nasdaq outperformed on tech strength, as softer PPI data further added to the case for the Fed to refrain from hiking rates in September. Nonetheless, the positive momentum began to wane overnight with little fresh major catalysts and after US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components. ASX 200 was pressured as the strength in tech was overshadowed by losses in the heavy industries, including miners, materials, resources and industrials, while participants also digested earnings releases. Nikkei 225 gained and briefly reclaimed the 69,000 level before paring some of the advances, while participants continue to second-guess whether the BoJ will speed up the pace of rate increases. KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum, but is off earlier highs with resistance at the 7,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued amid a slew of earnings releases including from SMIC and JD.com, with the latter pressured despite beating on the top and bottom lines, while sentiment was also not helped by trade-related frictions with the US to impose tariffs of up to 100% on drones, which seems to be aimed at China and DJI, which holds around an 80% share of the global drone market.

Top Asian News

• PBoC keeps 7-day reverse repo operation volume at zero, while it injects CNY 349bln via overnight reverse repos.
• Taiwan raises 2026 GDP forecast to +11.05% (prev. +9.64%).
• Hong Kong revises 2026 GDP forecast to 3.5-4.5% (prev. 2.5-3.5%).

European bourses are broadly softer across the board, outside of the DAX 40 given the gains in SAP (see more below). Over in Asia, memory chip names (Kioxia +3.8%, SK Hynix +3.3%) climbed in Asia-Pac trade after Sandisk gave a positive outlook at its investor day. Sandisk said it expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens between 2028-30 and also plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. Sectors are mixed. Tech is the sector outperformer, followed by Media and Insurance. To the downside is Utilities, while Basic Resources and Health Care also underperform.

Top European News

• Reform UK leader Farage won the Clacton by-election with 22,293 votes.

FX

• DXY gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 99.70 base, despite higher energy prices (Brent +1.5%), which are typically constructive for the USD. Weakness in the Buck likely comes as participants digest the July series of data, which contained dovish components. CPI/PPI were in-line and soft, respectively, while the payrolls figure will likely give food for Fed doves. Today, USD is set to digest US Retail Sales and the UoM survey.
• USD/JPY -0.2% and continues choppy action, this time after another BoJ source said the Bank was set to raise interest rates as soon as September; this saw the pair slip 17 pips to a 159.15 base, a level which is being tested at the time of writing. Currently, markets assign a c. 80% probability of such action in September. More pertinently, Bloomberg sources on Thursday said the Takaichi government is said to support faster BoJ rate hikes. The piece also said the bank could raise rates in either September or October; the timing of the latest source potentially the reason why this JPY strength has stuck.
• Kiwi is rebounding vs the USD after losses following Thursday's soft inflation expectations survey; action which has entirely faded with the pair ~0.2% higher than pre-data. NZD/USD +0.4%, once again above all significant DMAs.
• NOK is the G10 outperformer, strength which is likely a function of oil prices despite the Norges Bank hold on Thursday raising questions over the removal of the tightening bias from the statement in September. Brent Oct’26 is firmer by 1.5%, after rising throughout the EU morning without a clear catalyst. NOK/SEK sees continues support above 1.00, while USD/NOK broke out of recent ranges

Fixed Income

• USTs continue to fall further from Thursday's peak of 109-03+, after failing to hold above the current range highs of 109-01. The 30-year auction was soft, showing a 0.4bp tail, below-average bid-to-cover and above-average dealer allocation, all pointing to weaker demand despite the considerably higher outright yield on offer. Following the auction, analysts at TD Securities said this is problematic for the Treasury as it must fund the government at more expensive levels. Looking ahead, US Retail sales is on the docket.
• Gilts opened lower and trades at the lower end of its 86.90-87.26 range, given the steady climb in energy prices. On the political front, Reform leader Farage won the Clacton by-election as expected. Following the count, More in Common's Tryl told Politico that despite that impressive raw vote total by Farage, the vote share was at the lower end of expectations, which shows that his opponents are highly motivated to turn out. Focus now turns to the outcome of the Parliamentary investigation into Farage over recent donations.
• Bunds continue to trade counter to energy prices, currently trading at the bottom end of its 124.72-125.01 range. A light docket ahead in Europe, given the summer period.
• Australia sells AUD 1bln November 2032 bonds, b/c 3.75, avg. yield 4.6868%.

Commodities

• Crude futures have been grinding higher throughout the European morning despite the lack of a clear driver. Overnight, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Meanwhile, this morning, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen. Furthermore, UKMTO says a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly following comments by ADNOC stating that two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
• There have also been a couple of headlines regarding Russia/Ukraine/NATO: NATO HQ confirmed allied jets were scrambled after a drone entered Latvian airspace. Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible.
• WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures have been edging higher since European players entered the market. Brent trades towards the top end of a USD 86.20-88.60/bbl range at the time of writing whilst WTI sits towards the upper end of a USD 80.71-82.99/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer by almost 2% intraday and north of EUR 61.50/MWh.
• Metals are flat/mixed amid a lack of drivers and in what is seemingly a summer lull. Spot gold resides towards the middle of a USD 4,322-4,363/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s 4,343/oz low. Spot silver ekes mild gains and resides towards the top end of a USD 63.51-64.73/oz range after briefly falling under yesterday’s USD 64.22/oz low. 3M LME copper remains above USD 14k/t in a USD 14,045.20- 14,125.28/t range.
• US VP Vance said goal one is to keep oil and gasoline affordable for the US.
• China's State Planner said domestic gasoline and diesel retail price caps will be cut by CNY 230/T and CNY 220/T, respectively; effective on August 14.
• Ukrainian official said if a ceasefire is implemented in the Black Sea region, Ukraine could restore grain exports through its seaports within one month.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components, which imposes 100% tariffs on certain-sized drones and a 25% tariff on smaller-sized drones. 10% tariffs will be imposed on drones from the UK and 15% tariffs on drones from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan. Tariffs will take effect 21 days after signing, while for components of drones that are not particularly sensitive, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after signing.
• Australian PM Albanese said he spoke with US President Trump and reviewed advancements under the AUKUS defence agreement, while he added that the AUKUS initiative continues full steam ahead. Albanese said he raised the issue of tariffs with Trump and urged him to consider full exemption, while he added that Trump would consider Australia's request.
• Brazil began analysing the reciprocity process on US tariffs, while it was notifying the US about the process and requesting that diplomatic consultations be held.

Central Banks

• Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said they have been getting a little bit better readings on inflation, which he hopes will continue and noted that a lot of inflation drivers were from tariffs, oil and things they hope to be one-time increases. Furthermore, he stated that if they can get some of that into the rearview mirror, they can get inflation heading back to 2%, and that the US economy is steady.
• The BoJ is reportedly set to raise interest rates as soon as September and also considering accelerating subsequent hikes, according to reports.
• RBA's Harper will depart from the monetary policy board, and Melinda Cilento has been named as a part-time member of the RBA board.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US VP Vance said the US has a lot of tools at its disposal for Iran.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, targeting its bank accounts and digital currencies worldwide, while the pressure campaign caused the collapse of the Iranian banking sector. Bessent added that measures against Iran will be a combination of economic isolation and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and he expects more announcements on Iran next week. Furthermore, he said they will take actions unprecedented in the history of economic isolation of a country and will prevent anything from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen, Press TV reported.
• UAE's ADNOC said two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Following this, UKMTO said a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz.
• US CENTCOM commander and Saudi Crown Prince MBS discuss mutual defence cooperation and efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, according to Saudi State News Agency.
• US President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner is to visit Israel next week for consultations on the situation in Gaza, according to Axios
• Airstrikes hit separatist militant group in Erbil, Iraq, according to Tehran Times.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible, IFX reported.
• Drones hit area around Russian Baltic seaport of Ust-Luga, according to the regional governor.
• Latvia issued an air threat alert in areas bordering Russia and Belarus, while NATO fighter jets shot down a drone over northeastern Latvia. It was also reported that Finland restricted aviation and maritime traffic in eastern Gulf of Finland.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea condemned US-South Korean military drills and said the military exercises are more provocative than last year, while it added that US-Japan-South Korea military cooperation is turning into a nuclear alliance. Furthermore, North Korea vowed to respond to a new level of threat with a new level of deterrent and will continue to expand nuclear deterrence, according to KCNA.
• Japanese Regional Coast Guard said four Chinese ships intruded into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%
• 10:00 am: United States Aug P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55, prior 55.2

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Right. I’m about to go off on holiday to find somewhere cooler after what was the 5th hottest day ever in the UK yesterday. I say 5th hottest but that is recorded history.  Apparently the Early Eocene Epoch some 55 million years ago was the last time these sorts of temperatures were the norm in the UK. Admittedly the country was nearer the Mediterranean then! For the next couple of weeks you'll mostly find me bathing in an Alpine lake or shouting at my children. Henry and Peter will be holding the fort while I'm gone. See you on the other side.
Before I disappear in search of snow and ice, markets have generally been enjoying the heat. Over the last 24 hours, investors have continued to dial back the chances of a Fed rate hike, sending the S&P 500 (+0.65%) to fresh highs. The biggest catalyst was a downside surprise in the US PPI inflation print, while lower oil prices gave the doves an extra tailwind, with Brent crude (-2.15%) finally snapping a six-day winning streak. As a result, pricing for a September Fed hike fell to just 35% by the close, down from above 50% on the morning of Wednesday’s CPI release, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) also moved sharply lower as markets embraced the more dovish outlook.

That PPI release set the tone for the day, as it cemented the view after Wednesday’s CPI that the Fed didn’t need to rush into rate hikes. The data showed monthly headline PPI unchanged in July (vs. +0.2% expected), which meant the year-on-year reading fell back to +4.7% (vs. +4.9% expected). So the release supported the view that the energy shock was fading, and the Fed wouldn’t need to react next month. As ever, there was also some focus on the categories that feed into PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred measure. But those were generally mixed and offset each other, with strength in portfolio management (+6.5%) offset by weakness in other categories like airfares (-3.4%). In net terms, the PPI details added a one basis point to our US economists’ estimate for July core PCE inflation. 

The downside PPI surprise led to an immediate reaction in pricing for the next Fed meeting. For instance, the probability of a September hike had been at 40% right before the release, but was down to 35% by the close. Indeed, the last time a hike by September was considered that remote was back in June, before Warsh’s first press conference was unexpectedly hawkish. That said, there was a reluctance to go much lower on market pricing given we’ve still got the August jobs report and CPI report before the next FOMC meeting. And looking further out, futures are now pricing in a 92% chance of a hike by the December meeting, also the first time since June that this has been less than fully priced.

We did hear from a few Fed speakers as well, but there weren’t really any surprises from a market point of view. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that “I think we need to act now”, but she’d already dissented for a rate hike in July, so that wasn’t a surprise. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a non-voter this year) was more dovish, pointing out that much of today’s high inflation “has come from shocks, which should pass”.  

This backdrop of softer inflation and more dovish rates pricing led to a big rally for US Treasuries yesterday. In fact, the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) fell to 4.64%, whilst the rate-sensitive 2yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 4.14%, its lowest level in almost a month. And the 30yr yield declined by -4.5bps, though we did see the highest yield at a US Treasury auction since 2001 as $25bn of 30yr bonds were issued at 5.216%. In Asia this morning US yields are back up a basis point across the curve.

The dovish momentum received further help yesterday from lower oil prices, which finally ended their run of gains over the last week. It wasn’t a huge fall, but Brent crude was down -2.15% by the close to $87.07/bbl, ending a run of 6 consecutive daily gains. Brent did rise from its intraday low of $85.85/bbl after the Houthi-run Saba news agency reported that the Houthis were targeting the Aramco refinery in the Jizan region. And earlier on in the session, Iran’s state-run IRIB cited a joint military command spokesman, who said that no ship could safely transit the Strait of Hormuz without approval. But overall, in the absence of material news, some of recent run up in geopolitical risk premium was taken out of oil markets, not least given the sizeable recent shipping via Hormuz by shuttle transfers and ships operating without transponders. Brent is flat this morning.  

Beyond the crude oil moves, it’s worth noting the continued tightness in refined product markets. Crack spreads in the US and Europe remain close to the highs reached in late July. So while crude oil prices are down by over 25% from their spring peak, the decline in refined product prices has been more modest. For perspective, while Brent crude is now +20% above pre-Iran war levels, US wholesale gasoline prices are about +50% higher and European diesel prices are about +60% higher. Just ahead of filling our car before the 14-hour drive to the Alps!

Whilst the PPI reading and lower oil prices were the main market drivers yesterday, we also had the US weekly initial jobless claims. They were a bit higher than expected, rising to 209k in the week ending August 8 (vs. 202k expected), so again that cemented the view that the Fed could stay on hold at the next meeting. And in turn, all this dovish newsflow benefited US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.65%) at another record. This was aided by a recovery for the Magnificent 7 (+1.20%) as well as tech stocks more broadly as the NASDAQ (+0.81%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.46%) also advanced. But it was a positive day more broadly with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.74%) outperforming and hitting a new high as well.  

Earlier in Europe, markets hadn’t been quite as resilient, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) edging lower for a second consecutive session. In part, that reflected Europe’s smaller exposure to tech, and also that ECB pricing didn’t move as much as Fed pricing did. Indeed, investors continue to price a September rate hike as a 90% chance for the ECB. So yields saw a comparatively smaller fall in Europe than the US, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.5bps) and BTPs (-4.8bps) ending the day lower. UK gilts were a particular underperformer, with the 10yr yield only down -1.9bps after the monthly GDP print surprised on the upside in June, unexpectedly rising by +0.3% (vs. -0.1% expected).  

In Asia this morning, the KOSPI (+1.99%) continues its recent comeback, extending its rally to a fifth straight session, with the Nikkei (+0.56%) also firm. In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.93%) and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (-1.01%) are under pressure, while mainland Chinese benchmarks are seeing modest declines, with the CSI 300 (-0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.21%) edging lower. S&P 500 futures are flat with the Nasdaq equivalent -0.15%. European futures are back up a quarter to half a percent as I type.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US retail sales for July, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there’s also the second estimate of Q2 GDP.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:04

Unusual Machines Jumps After Trump Slaps 100% Drone Tariff In "Hard Decoupling" From China

Shares of drone makers AeroVironment and Aevex, and "pure-play" drone-parts company Unusual Machines, are higher in premarket trading Thursday after the Trump administration signed a proclamation imposing tariffs of as much as 100% on imported drones and components, part of a broader effort to decouple the nation's drone supply chain from China.

Drones weighing more than 55 pounds, in other words, Group 3 drones, equipped with thermal imaging and certain sensitive components will face the top rate. Smaller, less-capable drones (< Group 3) and other parts will be subject to a 25% duty. Qualifying imports from the European Union and several US trading partners will face a 15% levy, while UK products will be taxed at 10%.

"The tariffs will take effect 21 days after signing. For components of drones that are not particularly sensitive, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after signing," the White House wrote in a fact sheet describing the new drone tariffs.

"In the long term, we're probably slipping towards an outcome of a hard decoupling for at least certain types of drones," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics, who Bloomberg quoted. "I think this is part of a broader pattern in which both the US and China uphold their basic trade agreement but continue to take relatively low-grade actions against each other."

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, said these drone tariffs are all "about reducing dependence on China for advanced drones and, importantly, components, as previous FCC barriers did not cover imports of grandfathered models and many drone components."

AeroVironment and Aevex were marginally higher in premarket trading. However, Unusual Machines, which we've labeled a "pure-play" NDAA-compliant drone-component manufacturer...

... jumped 13% and continues to move higher since our initial coverage began on July 23 (+54%). 

Related

• This American Drone-Motor Company Is Positioned For "Massive Procurement Tailwind"
• Wall Street Zeroes In On This "Pure-Play" US Attack Drone Company

In the previous report, we focused on AeroVironment, Ondas, Red Cat, AEVEX, Redwire, Insitu and Teledyne FLIR. Private companies covered included Anduril, Skydio, Shield AI, Quantum Systems, Performance Drone Works, DZYNE, Firestorm Labs, and Neros.

Read the full report on how to profit from the "Asymmetric Warfare Boom." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 07:45

Saudi Oil Fleet Increasingly Going 'Dark' Due To Houthi Blockade

Via The Cradle

Yemen's maritime blockade on Saudi shipping has pushed the kingdom’s crude exports off the radar in the Red Sea, with tankers forced to turn off their tracking signals to avoid attack and every recent cargo loaded at Yanbu sailing "dark," Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Saudi export volumes can no longer be independently verified as a result of the increased invisibility, with ship-tracking firms issuing conflicting estimates of the same shipments, figures the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and traders use to gauge world supply and forecast the market. 

via AFP

Three firms tracking the same week beginning August 3 reached three different conclusions.

Vortexa measured a modest decline at Yanbu, to 2.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.71 million, while Kpler reported a collapse to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million, and AXSMarine recorded a rise, to 850,000 bpd from about 420,000. 

Vortexa analyst George Morris said no Yanbu cargo lifted last week had its Automatic Identification System (AIS) switched on. 

"Last week Yanbu liftings were all conducted dark. We're not seeing any loadings with Automatic Identification System (AIS) on at the moment," he said. 

Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe said about 70 percent of loadings along the Saudi west coast were dark in recent weeks, and that every Yanbu cargo loaded since 23 July involved a vessel without continuous AIS coverage. 

An average of 32 vessels per day passed through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait last week, according to Kpler data. That is down from roughly 50 a day before Ansarallah announced the blockade.

Saudi oil is meanwhile moving north instead, reaching the Mediterranean either through the Suez Canal or along Egypt's SUMED Pipeline, which runs overland from the Red Sea terminal of Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir on the coast.

Satellite imagery reviewed by independent maritime data analyst Phileeppos in a post on X points to a far steeper fall, with loading activity at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminals down by roughly half since the Yemeni blockade took effect on 20 July.

Tankers at the King Fahd and Muajjiz terminals were estimated to be holding an average of 10 million barrels per satellite pass beforehand, against around 5 million after.

This comes as Turkey confirmed its entry into a Saudi-led maritime coalition formed to protect shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced in a recent statement.

The 13-country alliance, headquartered in Riyadh, was announced last month after the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) imposed its blockade on shipments already diverted into the Red Sea by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

One fleet of Saudi VLCCs is going around the Cape of Good hope to avoid the Houthis. Nearly All Saudi tankers in the red sea have gone dark and are moving without AIS.
Meanwhile over 12+ empty Saudi tankers are headed towards sea of Oman/UAE ports for possible crossing. https://t.co/mgCelwEBG2 pic.twitter.com/0MGARl9DoS

— Ali (@MerruX) August 12, 2026

The YAF has described the measure as a “blockade for blockade” strategy, answering more than a decade of blockade and war waged against Yemen by the kingdom.

Ankara's participation deepens a trilateral defense pact signed in Mecca last week, committing Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan to collective security.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 07:20