Zero Hedge

Trump Greenlights Patriot Missile Production In Ukraine, Praises Deep Strikes Into Russia

Trump Greenlights Patriot Missile Production In Ukraine, Praises Deep Strikes Into Russia

President Trump just prior to entering the Oval Office vowed to quickly achieve peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, which is currently in its fifth year. The MAGA base got energized by Trump's earlier repeat statements that he'd bring peace to major global flashpoints and hotspots, but instead of anti-interventionism he started a new war of choice in the Middle East, and is now tripling down on military support to Kiev.

While in Turkey for the annual NATO summit, President Trump commented on the issue of Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory on its oil refineries and defense manufacturing facilities, which has unleashed a fuel crisis in various parts of Russia and especially Crimea.

"It's an escalation but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end [of the war]," the US President told the NATO summit.

via AFP

After heaping lavish praise on Ukraine forces for supposedly turning the tide of battle and momentum in Kiev's favor, Trump also said, "We have a lot of pressure on President Putin. I don’t think he likes what’s going on." He added: "But I talked to President Putin a lot. He wants to end the war."

The Wall Street Journal comments in the wake of Trump's remarks:

President Trump said he supported Ukraine striking targets deep inside Russian territory, calling it an escalation that could help end the war.

...In a marked contrast to past meetings between the two leaders, Trump opened his press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky by offering warm words and fresh promises of military cooperation with Ukraine, providing a major boon for Kyiv and its supporters in Europe. Trump praised Ukraine’s bravery, signaled he would consider granting Kyiv a license to produce U.S. Patriot missile interceptors and said he would consider travel to Kyiv at the right time in peace talks.

On this, Trump said Washington would give Ukraine "the right to make Patriots" - after Zelensky has for at least six months been relentless in requesting this, framing it as urgent and for the protection of cities and civilians.

"We’ll show them how to do it," Trump stated, describing the system as "very complex" - though he also said the Ukrainians would "figure out the complexity quickly."

Trump continued by saying that American defense firms are already building "four plants" and claimed that "all of our companies will be able to do this in two to three months."

However, there have notoriously been immense backlogs when it comes to Patriot production, and there's said to be great global demand among US allies, especially given depletions which have come as a result of the Iran war.

It's hard to know of this is just more bluster - and what will actually materialize as far as this promises - but Moscow will only see this as another US step up the escalation ladder. Earlier this week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said the Ukraine conflict is no longer just a "special military operation" but a real war, because Kiev is backed by Berlin, Paris, The Hague, Oslo, and Washington - complete with Western weapons, satellites, and infrastructure helping direct strikes.

"In these conditions, we must be clear-eyed: the Kiev regime is capable of anything," Peskov said in an interview.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 11:05

WTI Extends Gains As Crude Exports Slide, SPR Drain Continues, 'Tank Bottoms' Hit

WTI Extends Gains As Crude Exports Slide, SPR Drain Continues, 'Tank Bottoms' Hit

Oil prices spiked overnight to three-week-highs after President Trump said that he thought the Iran cease-fire was “over” amid a volatile 24 hours in the Persian Gulf region.

The Trump admin launched a series of strikes on Iran and revoked a waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil in retaliation for attacks on tankers this week in the Strait of Hormuz.

Daniela Hathorn, an analyst at Capital.com, a broker, said that investors had viewed the cease-fire as “fragile but ultimately durable,” until Mr. Trump’s comments called that into question.

“Any suggestion that negotiations have collapsed raises the risk of renewed supply interruptions or tighter sanctions,” Ms. Hathorn said in a statement.

Overnight saw across the board inventory draws reported by API (but admittedly the draws were on the smaller side).

API

  • Crude -399k

  • Cushing -100k

  • Gasoline -2.92mm

  • Distillates -1.80mm

DOE

  • Crude +2.998mm (-1.4mm exp) - biggest build since April 3rd

  • Cushing -52k

  • Gasoline -1.904mm

  • Distillates -4.98mm - biggest draw since Jan 26th

While the decline in crude stocks was expected to slow, the 3mm barrel build is entirely unexpected. Product stocks are seeing big draws with distillates dominating the flows (amid record crack spreads)...

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks at the critical Cushing hub are stuck at 'tank bottoms'...

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to see sizable draws...

...drooping the total SPR level to fresh post-1983 lows...

US crude production pushed back up to record highs...

US crude exports, which have been running hot since April, have tumbled back to 'normal' levels...

But product exports exploded to a new record high...

WTI front-month futures were hovering around three-week highs around $74.50 ahead of the official data (back above its 50DMA), and extending gains after...

While the physical crude market remains reasonably supplied, refined products continue to tighten.

Crack spreads remain elevated (potentially providing more crude demand pull from refiners), and ongoing strikes on Russian refining infrastructure are keeping product markets tight.

And that's why pump prices are not falling in line with crude...

...as President Trump demands!!

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 10:39

Trump Admin Approves Public Release Of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Models Ahead Of Thursday Release

Trump Admin Approves Public Release Of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Models Ahead Of Thursday Release

The Trump administration has approved the wide public release of OpenAI's advanced GPT-5.6 model family, a source familiar with the discussions confirmed to Axios on Tuesday. OpenAI announced late Tuesday night that its flagship model, named Sol, along with the more accessible Terra and Luna variants, will launch publicly this Thursday.

Prompt via GPTcommands

The decision marks the latest delayed rollout due to coordination between the U.S. government and leading AI companies over access to frontier systems.

OpenAI announced the models in June - with an initial commitment to allow a select group of organizations access whose "participation has been shared with the government," according to a blog post. According to the company, "we’re introducing a new max reasoning effort to give Sol the most time to reason deeply. Additionally, we’re introducing a new ultra mode that goes beyond the capabilities of a single agent by leveraging subagents to accelerate complex work."

Last month, the administration directed OpenAI to begin with a limited release of GPT-5.6, restricting early access to government-approved entities only. OpenAI had publicly stated at the time that a staggered approach was not its preferred method and that both companies and regulators were operating without finalized standards called for in President Trump's recent AI executive order.

The new green light followed additional testing and meetings - with technical experts from OpenAI traveling to Washington, D.C. to answer questions during the review process. The evaluation was conducted by the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) within the Department of Commerce - the entity responsible for assessing advanced AI systems for safety, security, and standards alignment.

The New Normal

Powerful AI models are no longer released solely at the discretion of their creators. The U.S. government and top AI labs are actively negotiating - model by model, in real time - who gets access and under what conditions due to concerns over national security, potential misuse, the need to maintain American leadership in AI while managing downsides. Of course, big brother is also shackling US models while cheaper, more efficient, open-weighted Chinese models are starting to dominate. That said - China is now considering restricting access to their models.

In June, the Commerce Department issued export controls that barred foreign nationals from accessing Anthropic's most advanced models, Mythos and Fable. The restrictions were so broad that Anthropic temporarily withdrew the models from the market entirely to comply.

The ban on Fable was lifted last week, with customer access restored the following day after safeguards were implemented - and users reporting performance hits thanks to the beefed up guardrails.

So, this is the new normal. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have said they are working with the government while clearer, more standardized release frameworks - outlined in the administration's executive order - are still being finalized.

For developers and users, the immediate outcome is positive: after weeks of limited availability, GPT-5.6's full capabilities will soon be open to the broader public and enterprise customers. For policymakers, it demonstrates that targeted reviews and technical collaboration can resolve concerns without indefinite delays.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 10:25

The Plumbing For Vast Defense Spending Needs To Be Set Up

The Plumbing For Vast Defense Spending Needs To Be Set Up

By Michael Every of Rabobank

In response to Iranian strikes on ships using the Omani route in Hormuz, the US has struck Iranian air defense, missile, and drone sites in the Strait and suspended its oil sanctions waiver. These are clear breaches of the MoU, and we will now see if Iran escalates --it says it will take “decisive” action-- with the risk of war if the US is also prepared to go that route. We suspect the US will try to step back for now. Even so, it should be clear why our base case is that more war is likely after the midterms. Obviously, oil prices are up today on this news; but crack spreads are already so wide that hardly matters.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, Secretary of War Hegseth is to visit Israel today as PM Netanyahu reiterates that he and Trump align on ”the big things” over Iran; bomb attacks rocked Damascus as France’s Macron visited; Lebanon’s president is to get his first White House visit; and the FT reports Saudi Arabia is blocking private sector payments to Dubai – a sign of rising tensions between those two GCC economies.

At the Ankara NATO summit, Trump struck a friendlier tone towards Turkey than many in Europe, removed sanctions over its purchase of the S-400 Russian antiaircraft system, and saying he’ll “certainly consider” selling them F-35s – setting off alarms in Jerusalem and Athens.

The summit has already seen Secretary General Rutte say, “Admit it - Trump was right.” Yes, Trump just reiterated he could pull all his troops out of Europe (no: Congress wouldn’t allow it) and still wants to control Greenland, which implies fission. But NATO announced joint economic projects to counter Russia and China, ranging from critical minerals to drones to missile shields, aimed at building up a joint military-industrial base: that implies fusion. So does South Korea and NATO agreeing to open procurement talks as President Lee Jae Myung calls for a higher-level defence partnership, something Japan is also pushing for; and as Japan, South Korea, and the US announced cooperation over a new US breakthrough in small modular nuclear reactors. If we count Australia in too at some point, that all seems like a potential building ‘bloc’.

That still comes at a very high price. Ankara has already seen $50bn in defense deals, but that’s a tiny fraction of what’s needed to rearm. Indeed, as European and Canadian defence spending growth is expected to slow this year, and the UK’s new plan falls far short of what’s required, there’s chatter of a ‘World Bank for Defence’, as the UK Chancellor also calls for rival international defense schemes to merge. In short, the plumbing for vast spending needs to be set up.

In that light, yesterday saw the BOE float easing bank capital rules despite what Bloomberg calls “mounting risks,” following new Fed Chair Warsh’s stance: will the BOE also encourage lending into the physical economy, i.e., the military-industrial complex, rather than just holding financial assets; and could it follow a potential US lead on a new inflation measure, as our US strategist plots here? Moreover, the BOE’s new crypto framework regulates GBP stablecoins but allows foreign ones, i.e., USD, to operate under US legislation, opening the door to their adoption.

Not in the same arena (yet), the RBNZ today hiked rates 25bps to 2.50%, as both we and the market had expected. The Bank said that more tightening is needed to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2% midpoint of its target, and RaboResearch maintains a forecast of two more 25bp rate hikes in 2026, with an additional 25bp hike in Q1 next year to bring the OCR to 3.25%.

Meanwhile, German business leaders warned Chancellor Merz that far more is needed to prevent the country experiencing a ‘lost decade’; Airbus is to make its first foray into engine manufacturing with a hydrogen project; and EU border chaos has prompted a delay to a planned pre-authorized travel system.

In the Americas, the White House is pressuring retailers over beef prices; and Canada told the UAE it’s not ready for a planned C$70bn of FDI as it doesn’t have any projects on hand(!)

In Asia, a Chinese policy advisor stated that China has the potential to become the world’s largest consumer market by 2041 – as data show its housing market has reversed 20-years of price gains (not always a bad thing in terms of consumer spending power), and a report has it that hundreds of millions of workers are now in the gig economy. That would imply China’s huge trade surplus will be very hard to eliminate, as a trade war with Europe looms alongside tariffs from the US and an emerging bloc-based NATO architecture.

Indeed, as the IMF appoints former BOE advisor Tenreyro as its next chief economist, the old establishment is on the back foot. See the op-ed today in the New York Times from Mohamed El-Erian arguing ‘America was being played. The Bessent Doctrine says those days are over’, which says economic statecraft has taken over and the global leaders of tomorrow need to learn that “considerations of national security, domestic politics, and geopolitics no longer play second fiddle to traditional business interests in determining corporate and economic outcomes. Those business interests are now being sidelined.” This will be a shock to anyone who didn’t read Grand Macro Strategy in November 2024, which made the same arguments and showed how it would happen.

Contrast that with the argument made by Adam Tooze in the Financial Times that the USD is no longer a global reserve FX but just a “profit dollar” backed by rising asset prices. There’s a vast realpolitik difference between financialisation and production but arguing one shouldn’t hold dollars because US assets appreciate is rather odd absent a counterargument for Hamiltonian neomercantilism which many, if not all, critics of the US also reject as the solution.

But back to “domestic politics.” The US Democratic Party candidate for a Maine Senate seat is being pressured to step down over a serious criminal allegation, opening a tug-of-war not just for that seat but within the Democrats between the mainstream and populist wing. That’s after President Trump used an Independence Day speech to rail against “communism.”

In France, Le Pen was given the legal all clear to run for president in 2027, while wearing a police ankle tag. Does this open the door to populists winning or is this an Establishment tactic to put forward a hobbled Le Pen rather than her nimbler (and more popular) deputy Bardella?

Reform UK leader Farage resigned his parliamentary seat over allegations he should have reported a large personal gift and possible party financial support before becoming an MP. He wants to fight a “two-fingers up to the Establishment” by-election, which Labour and the Tories will not contest. One view is Farage is now a farce, as when he wins the pointless by-election the parliamentary investigation into the gifts will just continue. Yet if it concludes there was wrongdoing, he faces suspension from Parliament for 30 days… and another by-election. Another view is Farage is a force and White Van Man will see the Establishment as the farce, just as happened with Trump. Mirroring that episode, the Guardian are pushing a criminal component to the gifts: but Channel 4 interviews of ‘pub-ulists’ in Farage’s seat of Clacton, even with leading questions, saw that as a stitch-up.

Indeed, the Establishment can lose: Prince Harry and other claimants could face a £50m(!) legal bill after losing a phone-hacking court case. Expect a slew of new streaming specials on how to make cupcakes soon?

It’s not only the IMF, central banks, and NATO, who need to get baking, perhaps.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 10:05

South Korea Falls Into Bear Market As Memory Euphoria Fizzles

South Korea Falls Into Bear Market As Memory Euphoria Fizzles

It started off with the usual morning rush by retail momentum chasers into the handful of massive, market-moving names (read Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix), but as has been the case over the past two weeks, the initial euphoria quickly reversed and the Kospi rolled over, closing down 5.4%, 9.99% over the past two days, and down 22% from the all time high of 9385 hit just over 2 weeks ago on Jun 18.

... officially entering a technical bear market as investors express growing concerns about the long-term prospects of the AI chipmakers that have driven a world-beating rally.

To be sure, the Kospi is still the world’s top-performing major stock index this year, having returned more than 70% in local currency terms. but the momentum is clearly to the downside, and finding dip buyers who are willing to hold more than just a few minutes is becoming especially difficult. 

On Wednesday, the market’s two largest constituents, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, fell 6.3% and 5.7%, respectively. Shares of the two companies have surged as a result of demand for their memory chips, although attention is increasingly turning to cheaper Chinese-made memory alternatives made by such companies as CXMT (DRAM) and YMTC (NAND).

Sure enough, sentiment has started to turn. Samsung’s shares tumbled as much as 10% on Tuesday, even though the company projected a third straight quarter of record operating profit.

According to the FT, analysts attributed the recent declines to a lack of clarity on how South Korean chipmakers would enforce long-term agreements with customers over chip purchases, echoing a joke we first made just a few days ago. 

US competitors such as Micron have shifted their business model to include longer-term purchasing agreements, but it remains unclear whether Samsung and SK Hynix have been able to secure similar contracts.

“At the moment we have not heard officially from the Korean peers how they plan on executing on these long-term contracts,” said Jason Lui, head of Asia-Pacific equity and derivative strategy at BNP Paribas. Lui said South Korean chipmakers could see their price-to-earnings ratio rise “if they can move to longer-term contracts”.

“Given the fundamentals of how strong the Korean market has been over the past two years it’s challenging to call it a bear market,” he said.

Volatility in the South Korean market is being exacerbated by the proliferation of leveraged exchange traded funds that magnify gains and losses. On Tuesday the head of South Korea’s financial regulator warned of “excessive” leveraged stock investments among retail investors.

Some fund managers welcomed the move downwards, saying it was inevitable.

“This is a necessary correction because the rise was too steep and fast,” said Chan Lee of Petra Capital Management. “There are possible buying opportunities outside of AI as well.”

Jongmin Shim, Korea equity strategist at CLSA, said: “I don’t think this story is over. It’s just a bit of a correction on the way up. Nothing goes up forever.”

The correction comes just days before SK Hynix plans to list shares on US exchanges for the first time in a $29bn offering that is expected to be the largest-ever share issuance by an Asian company.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 09:45

Zelensky In Ankara Still Insistent On Ukraine Joining NATO: 'Alliance For The Future'

Zelensky In Ankara Still Insistent On Ukraine Joining NATO: 'Alliance For The Future'

President Volodymyr Zelensky is in full court press mode while being present in Ankara for the annual NATO summit, amid Western leaders including President Trump. He has predictably renewed his argument for Ukraine to join the North Atlantic alliance, while also touting some momentum on the battlefield as Russia comes under repeat long-range drone attacks. 

Zelensky thanked leaders "who have clearly stated Ukraine belongs in NATO, because NATO with Ukraine is the alliance for the future" - and then posed in Tuesday remarks, "I have a question for you. Do you really believe it? Do you really believe it would be right to leave outside NATO, a country and a people with this level of defensive capability?"

He argued further: "If we already have these capabilities, if Ukrainians already know how to fight like this, then it does make sense for these capabilities to become a part of the alliance's collective defense that would make all of us stronger."

Source: Ukrainian Presidency/Anadolu via Getty Images

Ukraine has been boasting of its premier drone capabilities, which it says is now clearly proven on the battlefield, but has also admitted that Ukraine needs assistance matching Russia's ballistic capabilities.

Zelensky said "Europe urgently needs its own capability to produce anti-ballistic systems and the missiles they require." He added: "The one thing we still need to do here in Europe is build a strong defense against Russia's ballistic missiles. It's a big challenge… this is Russia's last major advantage."

It's interesting that Zelensky is arguing that his country should become a full-fledged NATO member based on already in effect being militarily integrated.

This was one of the Kremlin's very rationales for launching the 'special military operation' in Ukraine in the first place. Also interesting is that Moscow is now referencing it as a 'war' on a much more official level...

Peskov via Russian state media sources:

Russia still has as a main front-and-center demand that Ukraine definitively and permanently reject aspirations to join NATO. Moscow also still requires full political recognition over the four eastern annexed oblasts, as well as Crimea. 

Western officials have still been reluctant to fully back some kind of rapid NATO membership track for Ukraine, knowing it would take the Ukraine crisis from more of a proxy war situation strait into WW3-style direct war between Russia and NATO.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 09:25

Higher Electricity Rates In Blue States Linked To Renewable Energy Policies

Higher Electricity Rates In Blue States Linked To Renewable Energy Policies

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

A new analysis by Always On Energy Research and the Institute for Energy Research concludes that renewable energy mandates and net-zero policies have contributed to higher electricity prices in states that adopted them, while states with fewer climate-related mandates generally have lower electricity costs.

The analysis examined electricity pricing data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and found that most states with electricity rates above the national average voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the 2020 and 2024 elections.

According to the report, 86 percent of states with above-average electricity prices supported the Democratic nominee in both elections. By comparison, 80 percent of the 10 states with the lowest electricity prices voted for the Republican nominee.

Researchers said the study focused on identifying policy differences between states with higher and lower electricity rates.

Last year, the organizations highlighted California, New York, Florida, Kentucky and Louisiana as examples of how renewable portfolio standards, net-zero targets, net-metering programs and other climate-related policies may affect electricity prices.

The groups have now expanded the project, releasing detailed profiles of the original 13 colonies on the Fourth of July. Additional state profiles are expected to be published in phases.

"We wanted to have a one-stop shop where people could kind of get a feel for what's the energy mix in their state, what policies are being implemented, and what's the impact of those policies on what they're paying at the plug," Isaac Orr, vice president of research for Always On Energy Research, told Just the News.

The report evaluates whether states require utilities to obtain a minimum share of electricity from renewable sources, have utility net-zero commitments, offer net-metering programs for rooftop solar customers, impose carbon-pricing or cap-and-trade systems, restrict natural gas infrastructure or have policies related to electricity demand from data centers.

"The map shows these kinds of subtle distinctions in the price of electricity for each of these states, and we wanted to be able to demonstrate why that is from a policy perspective," Orr said.

The researchers noted that political affiliation alone does not explain electricity prices. Oregon and Washington, both Democratic-leaning states, have relatively low electricity costs because of their extensive hydroelectric generation.

According to the report, utilities may benefit financially from net-zero commitments because they can earn greater returns by investing in new infrastructure.

The organizations said they hope the project will serve as a resource for voters and policymakers evaluating the impact of state energy policies.

Alex Stevens, manager of policy and communications for the Institute for Energy Research, said the report has generated significant interest, including discussions with state officials and testimony before the Maryland Legislature on the relationship between energy policies and electricity prices.

Tom Pyle, president of the Institute for Energy Research, cited federal data showing electricity prices increased 27 percent between January 2021 and January 2025, followed by an additional 11 percent increase from January through September 2025.

Under the Federal Power Act, states have primary authority over electricity generation portfolios, retail pricing and resource planning.

"Americans deserve transparent information on how state decisions directly affect their wallet," Pyle said. "The bottom line is that the decisions that states make, good or bad, have consequences for American families and businesses when it comes to electricity affordability."

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 08:45

Futures Slide, Oil Jumps After Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over

Futures Slide, Oil Jumps After Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over

Markets are on the backfoot this morning with equity futures and macro credit under pressure, bond yields spiking, the USD higher, and oil jumping after President Trump thrust geopolitical risks back into focus by declaring the ceasefire between the US and Iran to be over calling it “a waste of time” after the US launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures slid 0.7% and Nasdaq futures slumped 1% dragged lower by memory and chip stocks after the latest kinetic volley.  The latter takes place in the context of mixed tech trade in Asia with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 5%, whilst the South Korean Kospi lost 5.4%. Pre-market semis and Mag7 are being sold as Energy and Staples are the two best sectors; everything else is flat to down. The drawdown in momentum and the broader AI infrastructure trade (~85% correlation between these two cohorts) remains heavily in focus, with the GS High Beta Momentum basket (GSPRHIMO) now surpassing -20% over the past 5 days. This morning, global price action is pointing towards “more of the same” with the primary Momentum tone-setters (Hynix -6% in Korea, SNDK -6%, MU -5%) lower across the board.  Brent crude advanced 5% to around $78 a barrel while WTI breached $75/bbl (+6%) before declining as the Energy complex leads commodities higher. Precious metals are getting hit with mixed bids to Ags and Base metals. Treasury yields are up around 2-3bps across the curve (10Y yield rising to 4.56%) with the market needing to digest a $39bln 10 year note auction ahead of the FOMC minutes. USD is higher.  Higher energy prices feed into inflation expectations and Fed minutes this afternoon take on added significance in the tighter-lipped Warsh era. Gold fell and the dollar wavered.

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are lower (Meta -1.8%, Nvidia -1.6%, Microsoft -1.4%, Amazon -1.7%, Tesla -1.6%, Alphabet -1.3%, Apple -0.4%). 

  • Chipmakers and other AI-linked names are set for more declines on Wednesday as traders continue to rotate out of the sector.
  • Energy stocks rally, while airlines and cruise lines slide, after Trump said a tentative ceasefire with Iran is “over,” raising the prospect of an end to peace negotiations and a potential renewal of fighting between the two countries. Chevron (CVX) climbs 2%, while Exxon (XOM) gains 2%.
  • Alibaba ADRs (BABA) surge 8% after investors turned optimistic on its earnings and shifted capital into major Chinese internet companies.
  • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) falls 4% after Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane cut her recommendation on candle and soap retailer to sell. Sentiment on the company is “trending below historical levels,” including Reddit trends and with younger consumers, Goldman’s analyst writes.
  • Beazer Homes USA (BZH) climbs 12% after Dream Finders Homes said it has submitted a revised all-cash proposal to acquire the company.
  • FuelCell Energy (FCEL) falls 21% after the company priced its upsized underwritten public offering of 10.7 million shares of its common stock.
  • MasTec (MTZ) inches 2% higher after the construction company entered into a pact to buy Electrical Specialists for about $1.65 billion, consisting of about $475 million in MasTec stock and about $1.175 billion in cash.
  • Navitas (NVTS) is down 7% after Wolfspeed filed a patent infringement lawsuit against the company in the US District Court for the District of Delaware, alleging that a broad range of Navitas products infringes multiple Wolfspeed patents.
  • Universal Health Services (UHS) slips 2% after Barclays downgraded the hospital operator to equal-weight, saying the fundamental and regulatory backdrop is turning more negative.

Overnight sentiment was hammered when a retaliation by the US on Iranian targets overnight was followed up by remarks just after 4am ET from US President Trump that the ceasefire with Iran is over, saying that "as far as I’m concerned it’s just a waste of time." The dollar and yields spiked, while WTI crude jumped back above $75 a barrel, Trump's comments, made on day two of the NATO summit in Turkey, followed the US revocation yesterday of a waiver allowing sales of Iranian oil and subsequent strikes against more than 80 targets. Trump meets Ukraine’s Zelenskyy later. A handful of oil carriers appeared to transit through the Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday, even after a spate of strikes on ships rattled owners and prompted at least one supertanker to turn around midway through its crossing.

Trump’s declaration “marks the most serious rupture yet in an agreement that has been fraying for weeks,” said Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares. “Markets had been treating the June memorandum of understanding as a durable de-escalation. That complacency now looks fragile.”

Trump overnight also slammed Spain for not contributing enough to NATO and threatened to cut off all trade with the country. 

That said, JPM tried to calm nerves with comments this morning, writing that the situation has not materially changed with neither US / Iran showing a desire for an extended conflict. On the US side, Trump had argued that the ceasefire paused the 60-day limit before he is required to get Congressional approval to extent military hostilities. He was facing resistance to secure additional funding for the war and next year’s military budget during the ceasefire, so another spike to fuel prices adds to that political headwind. On the Iran side, they want legal control of SoH but likely want higher oil prices to pressure Trump and to maintain revenue given the lack of demand for their unsanctioned oil.

“My first read is that investors will not immediately price this as a full return to war, but they also cannot go back to the clean ‘peace dividend’ trade,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “The bigger point is that any path from ceasefire to durable peace now looks much longer and much more fragile.”

Today's 2 p.m. ET release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes takes on added significance after Warsh shortened the policy statement and declined to contribute to rate forecasts. Bloomberg Economics’ Andrew Sacher expects the account to reinforce the committee’s focus on above-target inflation and its preference to preserve the option of further tightening. The options market is signaling that investors may be overestimating how much the Fed will raise rates this year. Since Warsh said last week that inflation risks have eased, flows in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate have tilted toward positions that would benefit if the swaps market pares back expectations for further rate hikes.

Elsewhere, China lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt. In New Zealand, the RBNZ raised rates by 25bps (expected) with guidance still leading toward hikes, though with a softened tone. Looking ahead, we will receive wholesale inventories for May and the June FOMC meeting minutes. 

In Europe sentiment was hammered with the Stoxx 600 down 1.9% and all sectors ex-energy lower. Energy is the only rising sector, while autos and construction fall the most. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

  • Jet2 shares surge as much as 17%. Analysts see strong booking momentum amid ebbing geopolitical risks and lower jet fuel prices.
  • TGS shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Norwegian geophysical consulting and services firm reported better-than-expected 2Q results.
  • Repsol shares gain as much as 4.8% after the Spanish oil company reported a stronger refining margin in 2Q.
  • Hikma Pharmaceuticals shares rise as much as 6% after a Betaville report regarding possible takeover interest in the UK pharmaceutical company.
  • Kuros Biosciences gains as much as 12% after Berenberg initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation, saying the Swiss company’s growth is “poised to reach an inflection point.”
  • Lufthansa drops as much as 6.4% after Citi downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, saying the valuation seems “less compelling” following the recent rally.
  • Man Group shares drop as much as 3.4% after UBS downgraded the investment management firm on valuation grounds following strong gains.
  • Rio Tinto falls as much as 3.6% in London to its lowest since March after Morgan Stanley cut the stock to underweight from equal-weight, saying the miner’s valuation is stretched given weaker iron ore fundamentals and limited copper exposure.
  • Castellum shares drop as much as 4.9% after UBS downgraded the Swedish property firm to neutral from buy, saying “much of the near-term value creation is now reflected in the share price.”
  • Vistry shares fall as much as 12% after the homebuilder warned of first-half losses.
  • Boku shares plunge by a record 35%, slumping to their lowest level since 2022, after the payments company warned its results for 2026 will be below market expectations.
  • Belimo shares fall as much as 7.4% after the Swiss maker of heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment was cut to sell at Van Lanschot Kempen, which sees a potential increase to guidance as already priced in.

Asian equities fell further after the US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire between his country and Iran over, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1%, after swinging between a loss of 1% and gain of 0.4%. Indian stocks reacted adversely to Trump’s comments, with the benchmark Nifty 50 gauge dropping over 2% and a gauge of volatility spiking 30%. Stocks also extended their decline in Indonesia, which relies heavily on oil imports, while futures on Japanese stocks fell 1.3%. The fresh bout of weakness follows a selloff in technology stocks in South Korea, where Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the major drags. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi fell 5.4%, taking its drop from last month’s all-time high to about 20%. Shares also fell in Japan and Australia, while those in Hong Kong and Singapore advanced. Bucking the trend, a key gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong climbed 4% earlier in the day, as the AI rotation trade gathered pace in Asia. Investors are pulling money from the chipmakers that powered this year’s rally and hunting for cheaper ways to play the technology boom. Elsewhere, Indonesian equities fell after S&P Dow Jones Indices signaled the country could eventually lose its emerging-market status if concerns over its stock market persist. New Zealand stocks fell as the central bank raised its key interest rate for the first time in three years.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%. However, performance versus peers is mixed with Kiwi dollar near the top of the leaderboard after a hawkish hike from the RBNZ

In rates, treasuries extended their late-Tuesday selloff as oil prices mounted sharply after US President Donald Trump said the tentative ceasefire with Iran is over. 2-year yields topped 4.20%, approaching this year’s high, while 10-year exceeded 4.58%, cheapest since May 22. US front-end and belly yields are 2bp-3bp higher on the day, flattening 5s30s spread by around 1bp. 10-year, higher by 2bp, trails steeper increases for German and UK counterparts as they catch up with Tuesday’s US yield surge that occurred after European markets had closed. European bonds tumbled as traders added to wagers that central banks will have little choice but to raise interest rates this year. The yield on 10-year gilts jumped 10 basis points to 4.95%, the highest level in nearly a month. This week’s Treasury auctions continue with $39 billion 10-year reopening at 1pm New York time and conclude with $22 billion 30-year reopening Thursday. Demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year new issue, which stopped through by 0.6bp and had a record low dealer allotment. WI 10-year yield near 4.575% is ~4bp cheaper than the June auction, which stopped through slightly in a solid result. Focal points of US session include a 10-year reopening auction and publication of minutes of June FOMC meeting. IG dollar issuance slate includes a KfW $6 billion 2-part offering. Amazon’s $25b offering headlined a six-issuer US investment-grade new issue session Tuesday. Issuers paid about 10bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.8 times oversubscribed.

In commodities, Brent crude futures are higher by 6.7% and just above the $79/bbl mark as tensions in the Middle East ratchet higher. Oil extended its gains on renewed US-Iran tensions, raising the prospect of a fresh round of conflict in one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions. This came after the US military launched fresh air strikes in Iran and revoked a waiver that allowed it to sell oil globally. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver down 1.2% and 2.5% respectively. Bitcoin has slipped over 3%.

US economic data calendar includes May wholesale inventories (10am) and consumer credit (3pm). Fed calendar empty for the session apart from FOMC minutes release at 2pm

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • US President Donald Trump said a tentative ceasefire with Iran has ended, raising the prospect of an end to peace negotiations and a potential renewal of fighting between the two countries. “For me, I think it’s over. As far as I’m concerned it’s just a waste of time.” BBG
  • President Trump slammed Spain for not contributing enough to NATO or spending enough on defense. “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain,” Trump said at a press conference in Ankara, Turkey. CNBC
  • South Korean stocks have entered a technical bear market as investors raise concerns about the long-term prospects of the AI chipmakers that have driven a world-beating rally. The Kospi index is down more than 20 per cent from its record high in June after slipping more than 5 per cent on Wednesday. FT
  • China has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt, trade sources ‌said on Wednesday, as the world’s biggest refiner returns towards normal after disruptions from the Iran war. BBG
  • The AI rotation trade is gathering pace in Asia as investors pull money from chipmakers and hunt for cheaper ways to play the technology boom. Investors are rotating into one of Asia's most unloved markets, with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. rising after the Kospi Index was pushed to a technical bear market. BBG
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates Wednesday in what appeared to be a tentative move by policy makers to combat nagging inflation pressures. The official cash rate was raised by 25 basis points to 2.5%. WSJ
  • OpenAI said its new AI model GPT-5.6 will be made available to the public tomorrow. The White House lifted restrictions on the model after government-approved entities were given a preview. Axios
  • Nvidia’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom, after losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in under two months. BBG
  • Wildcatters are racing to secure oil deals in Venezuela, moving faster than Big Oil despite earthquake damage and political uncertainty. Whether the country’s vast reserves can overcome the current challenges remains an open question. BBG
  • South Korea's Foreign Ministry said they have signed an MoU with the US and Japan on cooperation to deploy small modular reactors: RTRS.
  • The sell off in the Goldman High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) has now surpassed 20% over 5 days, exceeding short term expectations for a summer slump in the factor. This magnitude of sell off at such velocity has not been seen since 2020 when the stay-at-home vs go outside narrative shifted meaningfully towards reopening. It is notable that the current drawdown does not have the same strength of catalyst. Fingers have pointed towards SK Hynix raising and META cloud business.

Iran War

  • Trump stated he "thinks" the ceasefire with Iran is "over":  Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over "I think"; as far as I am concerned, it is a waste of time dealing with Iran. On the MoU, "think it is over". Adds, "I do not want to deal with Iran", they are a "bunch of liars".
  • US President Trump said (on Iran) he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk if they want. But, "I think this is a waste of time".
  • US CENTOM announced that it completed a new round of offensive strikes, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions. CENTCOM added that forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable when the agreement is not adhered to or obeyed.
  • Several explosions have been heard in Bushehr, Iran, according to Mehr news; Mehr's journalist on Kharg Island denies reported of an attack on Kharg, despite some reported of an incident being published.
  • In response, Iran's IRGC said they hit 85 important US military installations in Port Salman, Bahrain's 5th Maritime Zone and Kuwait's Ali Salem Air Base.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed, with Chinese indices the only region in the green amid multiple IPOs and strength in China's tech space. Sentiment from the US session carried over in the Asia-Pac session, as energy prices surged amid the re-escalation of US-Iran tensions. ASX 200 continued to be weighed on by metals, with the Metals & Mining sector the worst performer, with Materials followed. Energy topped the sector pile Nikkei 225 started on the softer side, briefly returned to the unchanged mark before returning to the downside. KOSPI traded choppy, as the initial weakness briefly reversed to print modest gains. However, weakness returned as the session continued, resulting in the Korea Exchange activating the sidecar on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. As a result, the KOSPI extended its losses from June peak to 20%, indicating a bear market. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng. were the only indices printing gains, with outperformance in the Hang Seng following strength in tech names. The strength can be attributed to two reports: 1) From Reuters, DeepSeek developing its own chip to power AI systems, and 2) from the Information, Zhiphu considering designing its own AI chip.

Top Asian News

  • China's MIIT has issued a risk warning regarding the potential security backdoors in the AI programming tool Claude Code.
  • South Korean Government said companies with consolidated assets of over KRW 10tln will be required to disclose information on their ESG performance and risks, starting 2028.
  • South Korean Finance Minister said they are to watch risk factors around stock market volatility, will enhance FX monitoring system to respond to night-time volatility.
  • Japan is considering a change to monetary policy wording in the Honebuto, Asahi reported.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.8%) began the session lower amid renewed US-Iran developments which spurred energy benchmarks higher. The move then extended after US President Trump suggested that he thinks the ceasefire with Iran is "over".
European sectors in Europe are entirely negative (excl. Energy +2%) as they react to elevated energy prices.

Top European News

  • US President Trump said he is not happy with NATO when it comes to Greenland. Spain is a wasted cause, they do not want to do trade. Cutting off all trade with Spain and all visits. "Do not want to do any more trade with them (Spain)". Treasury Secretary Bessent has been told to cut off all trade with Spain. US is paying too much into NATO. UK and Italy were both terrible in not allowing the US to use military bases. Greenland is not important to Denmark.

FX

  • G10s are mostly lower against the Buck excl. commodity exporters CAD and NOK, which are resilient vs. the USD.
  • USD rose throughout the morning in reaction to energy strength alongside sour equity sentiment after US President Trump said he thought the Iran ceasefire was over. To briefly summarise developments, yesterday the US Treasury revoked the June 21st Iran-related waiver, General License X, which had allowed Iran to produce, deliver and sell its oil; and US President Trump’s remarks this morning accelerated the move higher in USD/oil with “Iran ceasefire is over "I think" the kicker.
  • Kiwi was the clear outperformer post RBNZ, but reversed gains against the Buck after the aforementioned Trump remarks. To briefly recap, the RBNZ hiked rates by 25bps in a unanimous decision, signalling further hikes to bring inflation to the 2% target mid-point; this saw some participants unwind bets for a hold. AUD/NZD appears the preferred vehicle to express the in-line/hawkish decision, now the Buck has picked up.
  • JPY continues to underperform amid carry/Terms of Trade implications. USD/JPY remains on a 162.00 handle and has essentially pared that downside seen on potential intervention fears last week having risen throughout the London morning. Reporting overnight via Asahi and Nikkei noted that the Japanese government may tweak a reference to monetary policy in its annual policy agenda to avoid the appearance that it is putting pressure on the BoJ.

Fixed Income

  • Fixed income started on the backfoot, as benchmarks gradually moved lower as energy continued to move higher overnight given the US revoked Iran’s oil waiver and then conducted strikes on 80 Iranian targets in retaliation to Iran targeting various cargo vessels on Tuesday.
  • The early morning saw modest additional pressure, with Bunds and USTs lower by roughly 40 and five ticks, respectively, at first. The scheduled docket ahead featured supply and a few data points, but we were primarily awaiting comments from the US and/or Iran after the overnight action.
  • US President Trump then spoke in Ankara, in a relatively short but packed interview where he said the ceasefire with Iran is over “I think” and specifically on the MoU said, “think it is over”. An update that sparked a marked and continuing move higher in energy, with crude firmer by over 6% and Dutch TTF by over 5%. As such, yields across the curve have jumped, benefiting the short-end most, and curves are bear-flattening globally, though with the US belly faring almost the same as the short-end.
  • USTs down to a 108-29 base, lower by 13 ticks. We now look to the US 10yr note auction after Tuesday’s 3yr, and thereafter Fed Minutes for June, which will be scoured for further insight into how the first meeting led by Warsh went and how any discussions/disagreements among the board were presented; with particular reference to any mention around Warsh’s view on forward guidance.
  • Bunds went down to around 125.30 following the above energy action and Trump language, lower by over 80 ticks. Energy-related action aside, the main focus point was a dismal first tap of a 2036 Bund, drawing a b/c of just 1.03x. Results of this sent Bunds lower by nearly 10 ticks, to a 125.23 base.
  • Gilts opened lower by 57 ticks, acknowledging the US waiver removal yesterday and the tit-for-tat strikes overnight. Thereafter, as Trump spoke, further downside was seen, sending Gilts lower by 130 ticks in total to an 87.16 base. As usual, Gilts underperform amid periods of pronounced energy upside given the sensitivity of the UK market to global benchmarks.
  • Germany sold EUR 3.902bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 3.00% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.03x, average yield 3.09%, retention 35%.
  • UK sold GBP 1.5bln 0.125% 2028 Treasury Gilts via Tender: b/c 4.97x (prev. 4.28x), average yield 3.989% (prev. 4.219%), tail (prev. 0.3bps).
  • Jefferies (JEF) to sell EUR-denominated 7yr noted; guidance seen +175bps to MS.
  • Spain has reportedly proposed the EU issue an annual EUR 850bln in bonds to save countries billions of euros in interest costs, POLITICO reported.
  • Australia sold AUD 900mln 4.25% 2036 AGBs: b/c 4.55x (prev. 3.86x), average yield 4.8745% (prev. 4.9735%).

Commodities

  • Following Iran’s decision to hit Saudi and Qatari tankers, the US struck various sites in Iran. As a result, Iran then hit regional partners, including Bahrain and Kuwait.
  • US President Trump, who was speaking at the NATO Summit in Ankara, berated the Iranian regime. He stated that it is a waste of time dealing with Iran, and ultimately stated that he thinks the ceasefire and MoU is “over”. The mention of he “thinks”, gives the US a little bit of optionality on whether the deal is actually over; he stated that he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk. Nonetheless, the risks of a wider escalation remain; markets now await clarification on whether the MoU has officially ended, the Iranian response and also how Qatari/Pakistani mediators react to the comments made by Trump.
  • WTI and Brent started the European session with gains in excess of 2%, but surged higher following the Trump comments; currently +5.6%. WTI Aug’26 holds at the top end of a USD 71.75-75.30/bbl range, whilst Brent Sept’26 sits near peaks of USD 75.44-79.26/bbl range. The latter remains well below the levels seen following the initial signing of the Islamabad MoU (USD 85/bbl), which signals some hopes that a) the Strait will remain open, b) the current MoU holds. On this theme, markets remain in backwardation, with front-month Brent prices still higher than second-month; should this flip, it would indicate that traders expect another large-scale supply glut.
  • Spot gold (-1.2%) trades lower this morning, and at the bottom end of a USD 4,050-4,133/oz range. Much of the pressure came following the Trump comments, given the USD strength and the inflationary implications of the ceasefire being over. Base metals are broadly lower, given the risk-tone; 3M LME Copper trades at USD 13,190-13,396/t range.
  • Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity said power lines were damaged by shrapnel in recent attacks.
  • European Commission, on the ETS revision, said they are still considering how and whether to add international carbon credits. Revision will include permanent domestic carbon removal. Will propose further investment.
  • Russia’s Gazprom said Ukraine attacked facilities of gas exports to Turkey; supplies not affected.
  • China reportedly lifts restrictions on refined fuel exports for the rest of July, according to sources.
  • China purchases at least 5 more US soybean cargoes, Bloomberg reported.
  • Japan aluminium premiums for Jul-Sep shipment set at USD 395/t, +12-13% Q/Q.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.399mln (exp. -1.5mln), Distillates -1.801mln (exp. +1mln), Gasoline -2.929mln (exp. -1.55mln), Cushing -0.069mln.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Spanish PM Spokesperson said the trade comments from US President Trump are business as usual.
  • USTR Greer said Canada and Mexico have not lived up to everything.

Geopolitics: Iran Commentary

  • Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the US has violated major parts of the MoU, citing US attacks on southern Iran, reinstating oil sanctions and threats of further strikes as MoU violations.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry states that the US activity overnight has "rendered important and fundamental parts of the Memorandum of Understanding on the End of the War ineffective".
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said the US, whether as World Cup host or in its foreign policy, manipulates the rules and resorts to deception, and that Iran rejects such tactics.
  • Iran's top joint miliary command said Iran will give a crushing response to America's aggression and terrorist action, and under no circumstances will they allow them to interfere in the affairs of the Strait of Hormuz and its management.
  • Advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader said US President Trump intends to attack again and we are fully prepared.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry condemns the US Treasury's move to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, will take any measure it deems necessary to safeguard its interests and national security. Iran holds the US government responsible for the consequences of the breach of the Memorandum of Understanding.

Overnight Attacks

  • Several explosions have been heard in Bushehr, Iran, according to Mehr news; Mehr's journalist on Kharg Island denies reported of an attack on Kharg, despite some reported of an incident being published. Elsewhere, sirens were reported in Bahrain once again.
  • Renewed explosions sounds heard around Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, Mehr reported.
  • Iran's army said it targeted the Sheikh Isa Base in Bahrain and warns of more attacks if the US repeats strikes on Iran, Mehr reported.
  • Iran's IRGC said that, in response to the US aggression, they hit 85 important US military installations in Port Salman, Bahrain's 5th Maritime Zone and Kuwait's Ali Salem Air Base.
  • Iran's IRGC said they downed a US Mq9 drone in the south of Iran, Press TV reported.
  • Iran fires several anti-ship missiles and drones towards US Navy warships in the Sea of Oman, Fars reported citing the Middle East Spectator.
  • A US official said the strike on Iran was a punitive action, not a proportional response, and that the operation will not end in the short term, CNN reported.

US Commentary

  • US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over "I think"; as far as I am concerned, it is a waste of time dealing with Iran. On the MoU, "think it is over". Adds, "I do not want to deal with Iran", they are a "bunch of liars".
  • US President Trump said (on Iran) he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk if they want. But, "I think this is a waste of time".
  • US President Trump said have had some great meetings; attacked very powerfully against Iran last night. Have wasted a lot of time with Iran. Iran does not know what it is doing. Iran shot rockets at the ships, which is why the US shot back. Iran is a "dirty" player, "are scum".
  • US President Trump approved the Iran strike plan and ordered it while in Turkey, a US official tells Axios' Ravid; the official said it is still unclear how long the strikes are going to continue.
  • US Secretary of Defence Hegseth has cancelled his visit to Israel, N12/Ynet report.

Others

  • Turkish President Erdogan said Europe must take more responsibility when it comes to NATO.
  • US President Trump said China is attempting to takeover the Panama Canal, will not let this happen. China has been treating the US right. Big fan of Chinese President Xi.
  • Ukrainian Armed Forces said Kyiv is under missile attack.
  • Israeli fighter jets carried out attacks in Barachit and Beit Yahoun in southern Lebanon.
  • A Pakistani Boeing (BA) plane flying to Karachi has crashed, with sources stating the plane was mistakenly targeted by the US, IRIB reported.
  • Chevron’s (CVX) Yasa Polaris oil tanker, used for CPC shipments, was attacked by drones off Russia’s Black Sea coast, according to sources.
  • Russia’s Gazprom said Ukraine attacked facilities of gas exports to Turkey; supplies not affected.
  • Ukraine's Military said it struck two oil refineries, six tankers, bridges and the Borisoglebsk airfield; AIF-NK oil refinery in Nizhny Kamsk was also damaged.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:00 am: United States Jul 3 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0%
  • 10:00 am: United States May F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Asian equity markets are largely lower this morning as investors digest a significant escalation in US-Iran tensions overnight. American forces launched strikes against more than 80 targets in Iran, including air defence systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar installations, and anti-ship missile capabilities, in response to recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes were accompanied by the US Treasury’s decision to revoke a waiver that had allowed new Iranian oil sales, a move that threatens to undermine the fragile US-Iran interim peace agreement reached last month.

The developments have reignited concerns about energy supplies and geopolitical risk, helping Brent crude rise more than 2% and trade near $76/bbl this morning after rising more than 5% yesterday, driven by the fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with Monday seeing the most incidents since the US-Iran interim agreement came into effect on June 17. Iran has condemned both measures as violations of the agreement and vowed a response, raising concerns that the fragile peace process reached last month could unravel before negotiations on a permanent settlement are completed. While US officials have stressed that talks towards a longer-term accord continue, the latest escalation represents the most serious test yet for the ceasefire.

Against this backdrop, risk sentiment across Asia is weak but not as much as you may have imagined given the attacks. S&P, Nasdaq and Stoxx futures are all pretty much flat with the rest of Asia down or up depending on which side of the tech stack they sit on.
The KOSPI losses have accelerated as I'm typing, currently down -5.57% in what seem very fast markets with the Nikkei -0.96%, and the S&P/ASX 200 down -0.49%. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are firmer ahead of tomorrow’s June inflation report, with the CSI 300 (+0.61%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.52%) moderately higher, whilst the Hang Seng (+2.38%) is outperforming as technology stocks there recover. However, they are just reopening after their lunchtime break as I type so given the vol elsewhere this could change by the time you read. 

Ahead of the overnight moves, markets struggled to gain traction yesterday, as the jump in oil prices revived familiar fears about stagflation. That led to clear pain for US Treasuries. For instance, the 10yr yield was up +8.2bps on the day to 4.55%, whilst the 30yr yield (+7.13bps) closed above 5% for the first time in nearly a month, at 5.06%. And on top of the oil moves, those trends got a fresh push from the NY Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. It showed 1yr inflation expectations up to 3.7%, the highest since September 2023, whilst 3yr expectations were up to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. So that leant in a hawkish direction and meant investors dialled up their expectations for Fed rate hikes, with the amount priced by the December meeting up +5.1bps on the day to 34bps.

As all that was happening, there wasn’t much respite for equities either, as chipmakers saw a renewed slump that took the Philly semiconductor index (-4.65%) to its lowest in nearly a month. Indeed, the index is now -15.95% beneath its highs in mid-June, after just posting its best quarter ever in Q2. To be fair it wasn’t all bad news, and US equities saw a rotation into defensive sectors. Energy (+3.02%), healthcare (+1.55%), consumer staples (+0.99%) and utilities (+0.91%) all had a strong performance. Moreover, a majority of the S&P 500’s constituents were still higher, with 283 companies rising on the day. But the chip declines still dragged on the overall performance, with the S&P 500 ultimately down -0.45%.  

Over in Europe, political developments were in focus yesterday in both France and the UK. In France, Marine Le Pen said she’d be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, after appeal judges shortened a ban on her running for office. The first round isn’t happening until April 18, with the run-off then two weeks later on May 2, but today’s news means that the outlines of the campaign are coming into view. 

Meanwhile in the UK, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage resigned as an MP, forcing a by-election that Farage himself is going to stand in. His resignation follows questions around a £5m gift from a Reform UK donor, which had triggered a parliamentary standards probe. Moreover, last weekend the Sunday Times reported that he hadn’t declared benefits from a long-time ally, George Cottrell. So with Farage under growing scrutiny, calling a by-election was seen as a way for him to regain momentum, particularly after Reform UK underperformed polls in the recent Makerfield by-election won by Andy Burnham. However, all the main political parties have said they won't stand a candidate, effectively calling it a political charade. So it'll be interesting to see if it backfires. Tomorrow will also see nominations open for the Labour leadership contest that will decide the next PM, although former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham remains the only declared candidate.  

Amidst all the political developments, there wasn’t too much of a market reaction in Europe, with bond yields moving higher across the board because of the oil price rise. So yields on 10yr bunds (+4.6bps), OATs (+5.6bps) and BTPs (+5.8bps) all moved higher on the day, with the STOXX 600 (-0.65%) also falling back as well.  

The NATO leaders’ summit will continue for a second day today, with President Trump saying yesterday that the US “could remove all our soldiers out of Europe” and reiterated his desire for Greenland to be under US control. Otherwise, there were multiple reports of defence industry deals that had been agreed, with Bloomberg reporting that was over $50bn.  

Shifting back to Asia to close, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has implemented its first key interest rate hike in three years, raising the official cash rate to 2.50% from 2.25%. This move, which was expected, signals the central bank's intention to transition to a less stimulatory monetary setting in an effort to curb inflationary pressures. The decision follows a split vote at the bank's previous meeting in May, where Governor Anna Breman had used her casting vote to maintain the cash rate. Following the decision, the New Zealand dollar strengthened by +0.42% to just above 57 cents against the US dollar, with the yield on the policy-sensitive two-year notes increasing by +4.5bps, now trading at 3.37%, amidst reinforced expectations for additional rate hikes this year.

Looking at the day ahead, the highlights will include the minutes of the FOMC’s June meeting, along with remarks from the ECB’s Kocher, Moulin, Nagel and Dolenc. Otherwise there isn’t much data, although we’ll get Sweden’s CPI for June, France’s current account balance for May, and US consumer credit for May.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 08:32

NATO Chief Backs Renewed US Strikes On Iran As 'Absolutely Necessary' 

NATO Chief Backs Renewed US Strikes On Iran As 'Absolutely Necessary' 

Even if most individual NATO members are still reluctant to jump on board Trump's Iran war, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is busy praising American military action there amid the annual summit in Ankara.

Rutte has freshly described the overnight fresh US military strikes on Iran in response to Tehran attacking multiple international shipping vessels "absolutely necessary". Rutte voiced agreement with Trump that Iran's actions violated the MoU ceasefire agreement with the US, which required a response.

Getty Images

"When you have a ceasefire and Iran ​is basically violating the ceasefire, I think it is totally ​crucial that the US forcefully react," Rutte told reporters.

The new US actions resulted in a swift Iranian response, in the form of Iranian drones and missiles on Kuwait and Bahrain, which the latter country decried as a "dangerous escalation".

"The era of bullying and extortion is over," Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf wrote on X. "It leads nowhere. We don’t fold."

As we reported earlier, President Trump has called the Iranians "scum" and declared the ceasefire "over": "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore; they're scum," Trump told reporters. 

All this naturally brings up the question of 'what's next?'

Certainly the Iranians seem in the mood for a fight, and Washington feels it can't let attacks on international shipping slide - so all for this could portend a return to all-out war.

It's been 129 days since the start of Operation Epic Fury - a conflict which US officials had promised would be 'fast' - and the public has been 'assured' it is not a quagmire. Yet here we are.

As for Rutte, it's unclear what his strategy for Iran, if any, might be. He's clearly trying to keep Trump happy, playing Trump whisperer in Turkey, vis-a-vis the NATO alliance and its continued funding. Here was some Trump commentary on NATO 'unity' in Ankara:

“Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please, including visits,” he said at a press conference in Ankara with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Trump also reignited inter-alliance tensions when he resurfaced his desire to take control of Greenland, a territory of NATO member Denmark.

The NATO chief has also newly stated could be no doubt over the "complete commitment of the United States to NATO" - which he claimed also defends the United States and is thus invaluable.

via CNBC

"But there's ​also the expectation ​that the ⁠Europeans and the Canadians will equalize their spending with the United States, which I ​think is completely fair," he added.

"The good ​news ⁠is that this is the big win today. It's the loss for Putin, it is a win for President ⁠Trump ​that the Europeans and the Canadians ​are doing exactly that," Rutte said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 08:25

Senate Defense Bill Would Establish Fund For Government To Buy Into Private Companies

Senate Defense Bill Would Establish Fund For Government To Buy Into Private Companies

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

A new bill in Congress would enshrine into law the ability of the executive branch to buy into private companies, and create a fund to finance the purchases.

The Pentagon in Arlington, Va., in this file photo. Carolyn Kaster/AP

The current Senate version of the National Defense Authorization Act gives the Defense Department explicit authority to take ownership stakes in companies. A provision titled "Equity Investments and Related Matters" establishes a new "Department of Defense Equity Investment Account" within the Treasury Department, which the Defense Department can use to make equity investments in critical minerals, materials, chemicals, and batteries.

While administration officials say this move allows the Defense Department to better align its goals with the private sector and for taxpayers to earn a return if the companies do well, critics have raised concerns about establishing a legal basis for government expansion into the private sector.

Government investments in companies under this bill would be limited to a 50 percent stake, non-voting shares, and a dollar cap of $500 million.

Michael Duffey, under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, stated in January that the Trump administration is "fundamentally shifting our approach to securing our munitions supply chain."

"By investing directly in suppliers we are building the resilient industrial base needed for the Arsenal of Freedom," Duffey said.

The Pentagon has been actively buying stakes in private companies over the past year, including a $400 million investment in MP Materials, a rare-earths mining company, in 2025, and a $1 billion investment a L3Harris Technologies, a rocket motor manufacturer, in April, as well as a 10 percent stake in chipmaker Intel.

"Equity ownership can align incentives in ways that grants and subsidies cannot," Carliss Chatman, a law professor at Southern Methodist University, told The Epoch Times.

"If taxpayers are assuming significant financial risk to help develop strategically important industries, an equity stake allows the public to participate in the upside if those investments succeed," she said. "Equity may also provide the government with governance rights, access to information, or long-term alignment that grants generally do not."

Potential For Conflicts Of Interest

Critics, however, say this initiative marks a new expansion of the state into private industry. While the U.S. government has taken stakes in banks, insurers, and carmakers in the past, those have been short-term measures to rescue companies from bankruptcy, and typically done with congressional approval and oversight.

"The problem begins with creating the statutory architecture for a Pentagon stock portfolio in the first place," Cato economist Tad DeHaven stated in a June 16 report. "That means Congress would not merely be tolerating a one-off emergency action but would instead provide the Pentagon with a standing legal pathway to acquire ownership stakes in private companies."

The Defense Department can legitimately support strategic industries through grants, loans, and government contracts, DeHaven states, but "ownership means continuing federal financial interest in a company's valuation, which is precisely what creates the favoritism, conflict of interest, and political pressure risks Congress should be avoiding."

Duffey stated at a March 4 House Armed Services Committee hearing that these equity investments "create a partnership with industry, an opportunity, not only for government to provide capital to lead to the kind of growth such as in the L3 deal, but it also crowds in additional private capital."

However, the purchases have drawn scrutiny. Critics say that the Defense Department's investment in L3 Harris Technologies could create a conflict of interest, with the government's role as L3's largest customer and decision-maker regarding procurement, as well as a shareholder that will benefit if the company performs well.

This raises questions about whether procurement decisions will be truly impartial, analysts say, given that companies such as Northrop Grumman and Anduril Industries, in which the state has no stake, also manufacture rocket motors and compete in the same markets as L3.

"More money can help, but we also don't want to discourage fair competition that encourages people to get into this space," Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) stated at the House Armed Services Committee hearing. "If they think the government's going to come in and just put their their thumb on the scale, it could discourage some of the investment we've seen."

State ownership raises other issues, as well.

Corporate Governance

"Equity ownership introduces governance questions that grants typically avoid," Chatman said.

"Once the government becomes a shareholder, questions arise regarding voting rights, fiduciary expectations, political influence over corporate decision-making, and eventual exit strategies," she said. "The legal design of the investment therefore matters as much as the decision to invest itself."

Federal ownership of private companies is becoming popular on both sides of the political aisle. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) recently proposed the American A.I. Sovereign Wealth Fund Act, in which the government would take a 50 percent stake in America's largest artificial intelligence companies.

"This would guarantee that the trillions created by AI are used to improve the lives of all of us - and block oligarch decisions that harm the American people," Sanders posted on X on June 1.

Critics, however, say this is a slippery slope to more government control over Americans' private lives. They point to attempts by the Biden administration to pressure private companies to censor Americans and to fire employees who refused COVID-19 injections, as well as the Canadian government's use of private banks and insurance companies to crush truckers' protests of that country's COVID-19 policies.

"Consider the Biden administration's pressure applied to social media firms during the COVID lockdowns," Jeffrey Degner, a policy expert at the American Institute for Economic Research, told the Daily Signal. "Imagine the silencing of free speech if the government had already taken ownership stakes in these firms!"

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 08:05

How America's Wealth Distribution Has Changed Over The Last 40 Years

How America's Wealth Distribution Has Changed Over The Last 40 Years

Wealth reflects the value of everything households own, including homes, stocks, businesses, and savings, minus what they owe.

Because different wealth groups own very different mixes of assets, long-term market trends can reshape how the nation’s wealth is divided.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Boyan Girginov, tracks how U.S. household wealth has shifted across wealth groups from Q3 1989 to Q4 2025 using data from the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts.

Wealth of the Top 1% vs. the Bottom 90%

The table below shows how the wealth distribution has changed over the last 35 years:

The top 1% built its wealth primarily through stocks and businesses, assets that have soared in value for decades. In fact, every group below the top 1% has lost share since 1989: even the next 9% of households, from the 90th to 99th percentiles, slipped from 38.0% to 36.4%.

Wealth further down the ladder is tied mostly to the family home, which appreciates far more slowly than the stock market. Much of the bottom 50%’s net worth is home equity, and many households in that group have little or no net worth at all. That’s why the gap between the top and the bottom has widened over the last 36 years.

How Markets Move Each Group’s Share

Market swings move each group’s share differently, depending on the assets its households own.

Every boom rewards whoever holds financial assets, and those gains compound: between 1989 and 2025, the top 0.1% increased its share of household wealth from 8.6% to 14.5%, while the top 1% as a whole climbed from 22.8% to 31.9%.

Busts fall hardest on those with the least cushion. The 2008 housing crash crushed the value of ordinary households’ main asset, and the bottom 50%’s share eventually fell to a record low of 0.4% before recovering to 2.5% today.

Over the full period, no group lost more ground than the upper-middle 40%, households between the 50th and 90th percentiles, whose share slid from 35.7% to 29.2% as home values trailed the stock market.

Wealth Distribution by Income Segment (1989-2025)

See all the data for the last 36 years below:

Time Period Top 0.1% Top 1%
(excl. top 0.1%) Top 10%
(excl. top 1%) Upper-Middle 40%
(excl. top 10%) Bottom 50% Q3 1989 8.6% 14.2% 38.0% 35.7% 3.5% Q4 1989 8.7% 14.2% 37.9% 35.7% 3.4% Q1 1990 8.6% 14.1% 37.7% 36.1% 3.5% Q2 1990 8.7% 14.2% 37.6% 36.1% 3.4% Q3 1990 8.5% 14.0% 37.3% 36.7% 3.5% Q4 1990 8.7% 14.1% 37.2% 36.4% 3.6% Q1 1991 8.9% 14.2% 37.0% 36.3% 3.5% Q2 1991 8.8% 14.2% 36.9% 36.5% 3.5% Q3 1991 8.8% 14.3% 36.6% 36.6% 3.7% Q4 1991 9.1% 14.4% 36.5% 36.3% 3.7% Q1 1992 9.0% 14.4% 36.3% 36.5% 3.8% Q2 1992 8.9% 14.3% 36.3% 36.7% 3.8% Q3 1992 8.9% 14.1% 36.2% 36.7% 4.1% Q4 1992 9.2% 14.3% 36.1% 36.4% 4.0% Q1 1993 9.5% 14.5% 36.1% 36.1% 3.8% Q2 1993 9.6% 14.5% 36.0% 36.1% 3.8% Q3 1993 9.8% 14.7% 35.7% 36.0% 3.8% Q4 1993 10.1% 14.8% 35.6% 35.8% 3.7% Q1 1994 10.2% 14.9% 35.5% 35.9% 3.5% Q2 1994 10.3% 15.0% 35.3% 35.9% 3.4% Q3 1994 10.5% 15.1% 35.0% 35.9% 3.5% Q4 1994 10.8% 15.2% 34.8% 35.7% 3.5% Q1 1995 10.9% 15.4% 34.7% 35.5% 3.5% Q2 1995 11.1% 15.6% 34.2% 35.5% 3.6% Q3 1995 11.4% 15.9% 33.9% 35.1% 3.7% Q4 1995 11.5% 15.9% 34.0% 34.9% 3.6% Q1 1996 11.5% 15.9% 34.2% 35.0% 3.5% Q2 1996 11.4% 15.9% 34.2% 35.1% 3.4% Q3 1996 11.3% 15.8% 34.3% 35.2% 3.4% Q4 1996 11.4% 15.8% 34.5% 35.0% 3.4% Q1 1997 11.2% 15.7% 34.6% 35.0% 3.4% Q2 1997 11.4% 15.9% 34.7% 34.6% 3.4% Q3 1997 11.4% 15.9% 34.8% 34.4% 3.4% Q4 1997 11.5% 16.0% 35.0% 34.2% 3.3% Q1 1998 11.7% 16.1% 35.1% 33.8% 3.3% Q2 1998 11.7% 16.1% 35.2% 33.8% 3.2% Q3 1998 11.2% 15.9% 35.1% 34.3% 3.5% Q4 1998 11.5% 16.2% 35.4% 33.6% 3.3% Q1 1999 11.2% 16.2% 35.5% 33.7% 3.4% Q2 1999 11.3% 16.4% 35.6% 33.5% 3.2% Q3 1999 11.0% 16.3% 35.6% 33.8% 3.3% Q4 1999 11.3% 16.6% 35.9% 32.9% 3.2% Q1 2000 11.2% 16.7% 35.9% 33.0% 3.2% Q2 2000 10.9% 16.6% 35.9% 33.4% 3.2% Q3 2000 10.7% 16.6% 35.8% 33.6% 3.3% Q4 2000 10.4% 16.4% 35.8% 34.2% 3.2% Q1 2001 9.9% 16.2% 35.7% 35.0% 3.2% Q2 2001 9.9% 16.3% 35.8% 34.9% 3.1% Q3 2001 9.6% 16.0% 35.8% 35.6% 3.1% Q4 2001 9.7% 16.2% 35.9% 35.3% 3.0% Q1 2002 9.6% 16.2% 36.0% 35.3% 3.0% Q2 2002 9.4% 16.2% 36.0% 35.5% 2.9% Q3 2002 9.0% 16.0% 36.0% 36.0% 3.0% Q4 2002 9.0% 16.1% 36.0% 36.0% 2.9% Q1 2003 8.8% 16.0% 36.2% 36.1% 2.8% Q2 2003 9.2% 16.2% 36.5% 35.5% 2.6% Q3 2003 9.2% 16.3% 36.5% 35.3% 2.6% Q4 2003 9.5% 16.5% 36.6% 34.8% 2.6% Q1 2004 9.9% 16.7% 36.5% 34.4% 2.5% Q2 2004 9.9% 16.7% 36.5% 34.3% 2.6% Q3 2004 10.0% 16.8% 36.5% 34.2% 2.5% Q4 2004 10.2% 16.8% 36.6% 33.9% 2.5% Q1 2005 10.2% 16.7% 36.7% 33.9% 2.5% Q2 2005 10.4% 16.8% 36.9% 33.6% 2.4% Q3 2005 10.5% 16.8% 36.9% 33.3% 2.5% Q4 2005 10.5% 16.7% 36.9% 33.3% 2.5% Q1 2006 11.0% 16.9% 37.1% 32.6% 2.4% Q2 2006 11.0% 16.8% 37.2% 32.6% 2.4% Q3 2006 11.1% 16.9% 37.3% 32.4% 2.4% Q4 2006 11.3% 16.9% 37.4% 32.0% 2.3% Q1 2007 11.6% 17.0% 37.6% 31.6% 2.2% Q2 2007 11.7% 17.0% 37.8% 31.3% 2.1% Q3 2007 11.9% 17.1% 38.0% 31.0% 2.0% Q4 2007 11.8% 17.0% 38.3% 31.2% 1.7% Q1 2008 11.6% 16.9% 38.5% 31.5% 1.5% Q2 2008 11.4% 17.0% 38.6% 31.5% 1.5% Q3 2008 11.2% 17.0% 38.9% 31.9% 1.2% Q4 2008 10.6% 17.1% 38.8% 32.5% 1.0% Q1 2009 10.3% 17.1% 39.0% 32.9% 0.7% Q2 2009 10.3% 17.3% 39.2% 32.5% 0.7% Q3 2009 10.6% 17.5% 39.4% 31.9% 0.7% Q4 2009 10.5% 17.6% 39.6% 31.8% 0.6% Q1 2010 10.6% 17.6% 39.7% 31.6% 0.5% Q2 2010 10.5% 17.6% 39.9% 31.5% 0.5% Q3 2010 10.8% 17.7% 40.0% 31.0% 0.5% Q4 2010 11.0% 17.8% 40.1% 30.7% 0.4% Q1 2011 11.3% 17.9% 40.0% 30.5% 0.4% Q2 2011 11.3% 17.8% 39.9% 30.5% 0.4% Q3 2011 11.1% 17.7% 39.8% 31.0% 0.4% Q4 2011 11.3% 17.7% 39.8% 30.8% 0.4% Q1 2012 11.5% 17.9% 39.7% 30.4% 0.4% Q2 2012 11.6% 17.8% 39.6% 30.5% 0.6% Q3 2012 11.8% 17.8% 39.5% 30.3% 0.6% Q4 2012 11.8% 17.8% 39.4% 30.3% 0.7% Q1 2013 12.0% 17.8% 39.4% 30.2% 0.7% Q2 2013 12.0% 17.6% 39.4% 30.2% 0.8% Q3 2013 12.1% 17.6% 39.3% 30.1% 0.9% Q4 2013 12.2% 17.6% 39.4% 30.0% 0.9% Q1 2014 12.3% 17.7% 39.4% 29.7% 0.9% Q2 2014 12.5% 17.9% 39.3% 29.3% 1.0% Q3 2014 12.5% 17.9% 39.3% 29.3% 1.0% Q4 2014 12.6% 18.0% 39.4% 29.1% 1.0% Q1 2015 12.6% 18.0% 39.3% 28.9% 1.0% Q2 2015 12.7% 18.1% 39.4% 28.8% 1.1% Q3 2015 12.5% 18.0% 39.4% 29.0% 1.1% Q4 2015 12.5% 18.1% 39.3% 28.9% 1.2% Q1 2016 12.5% 18.1% 39.3% 28.9% 1.2% Q2 2016 12.6% 18.2% 39.4% 28.7% 1.2% Q3 2016 12.6% 18.2% 39.2% 28.7% 1.3% Q4 2016 12.5% 18.2% 39.2% 28.8% 1.3% Q1 2017 12.5% 18.2% 39.3% 28.7% 1.3% Q2 2017 12.5% 18.2% 39.3% 28.6% 1.4% Q3 2017 12.5% 18.2% 39.3% 28.6% 1.4% Q4 2017 12.5% 18.3% 39.3% 28.4% 1.4% Q1 2018 12.4% 18.2% 39.3% 28.6% 1.5% Q2 2018 12.3% 18.2% 39.4% 28.5% 1.6% Q3 2018 12.4% 18.3% 39.5% 28.4% 1.5% Q4 2018 11.9% 18.1% 39.6% 28.8% 1.6% Q1 2019 12.3% 18.3% 39.7% 28.1% 1.6% Q2 2019 12.3% 18.3% 39.7% 28.2% 1.6% Q3 2019 12.1% 18.3% 39.7% 28.2% 1.7% Q4 2019 12.4% 18.2% 39.5% 28.2% 1.7% Q1 2020 11.7% 17.5% 39.3% 29.6% 1.8% Q2 2020 12.3% 17.6% 38.9% 29.3% 2.0% Q3 2020 12.5% 17.5% 38.6% 29.3% 2.1% Q4 2020 13.0% 17.6% 38.3% 29.0% 2.2% Q1 2021 13.2% 17.5% 37.9% 29.1% 2.3% Q2 2021 13.4% 17.4% 37.6% 29.2% 2.3% Q3 2021 13.5% 17.3% 37.4% 29.4% 2.4% Q4 2021 13.7% 17.2% 37.2% 29.4% 2.4% Q1 2022 13.6% 16.9% 36.9% 30.1% 2.5% Q2 2022 13.1% 16.3% 36.5% 31.3% 2.7% Q3 2022 13.2% 16.3% 36.4% 31.4% 2.7% Q4 2022 13.4% 16.5% 36.5% 31.0% 2.6% Q1 2023 13.5% 16.6% 36.5% 30.8% 2.6% Q2 2023 13.5% 16.6% 36.4% 30.9% 2.6% Q3 2023 13.4% 16.5% 36.4% 31.1% 2.5% Q4 2023 13.6% 16.7% 36.5% 30.7% 2.5% Q1 2024 13.7% 16.8% 36.5% 30.5% 2.5% Q2 2024 13.7% 16.8% 36.4% 30.6% 2.5% Q3 2024 14.0% 16.9% 36.5% 30.2% 2.4% Q4 2024 14.0% 17.0% 36.4% 30.1% 2.5% Q1 2025 13.9% 16.9% 36.4% 30.3% 2.5% Q2 2025 14.1% 17.1% 36.4% 30.1% 2.5% Q3 2025 14.4% 17.3% 36.4% 29.4% 2.5% Q4 2025 14.5% 17.4% 36.4% 29.2% 2.5%

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Global Wealth Pyramid in 2025 on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 05:45

Spain: 70% Of Tested 'Unaccompanied Minor' Immigrants Are Actually Adults

Spain: 70% Of Tested 'Unaccompanied Minor' Immigrants Are Actually Adults

Via Remix News,

The Spanish city of Madrid has delivered a stark confirmation of long-standing suspicions about unaccompanied foreign immigrants claiming to be minors. When this group undergoes rigorous medical age verification, 70 percent turn out to be adults over 18.

This is not a handful of isolated incidents but a systemic pattern that has become the norm in Spain’s capital. The findings, detailed in official data and reported by Spanish outlet El Debate, underscore a growing “farce” in the handling of unaccompanied minor claims across the country.

In 2024, authorities in the Madrid region opened 848 age-determination proceedings for individuals claiming to be unaccompanied foreign minors — a sharp increase from 482 the previous year. More than half of these cases were archived because the claimants abandoned the process before completing the key medical test, which is a wrist X-ray for bone age assessment.

Of the 378 individuals who underwent the test, only 112 were confirmed as minors, while 266 were determined to be adults — approximately 70 percent.

The number of detected frauds tripled compared to the prior year. Since 2018, Madrid has handled more than 11,000 unaccompanied foreign minors in its protection system. In 2024 alone, 2,442 new young people entered the system. The regional government has already filed 29 police complaints after its own checks revealed adults improperly placed in minor-protection facilities.

Nationally, the Fiscalía General del Estado reported 7,562 pre-procedural age-determination cases in 2024. Of these, 2,457 concluded the individuals were adults, while many others either abandoned proceedings or received the benefit of the doubt.

Real benefits for fraud

As Remix News has reported in the past, claiming minor status grants significant advantages under Spanish and EU rules, including placement in specialized protection centers with housing, education, healthcare, and legal safeguards.

There is also significantly greater difficulty in deportation; and, in many cases, pathways to family reunification or residence permits unavailable to adults. Many claimants disappear from centers once age verification begins, avoiding confirmation of their true age.

Similar fraud seen across Europe

This Madrid revelation is far from unique. Remix News has extensively covered parallel cases of age fraud by migrants claiming unaccompanied minor status throughout Europe, often involving the same nationalities, notably Algerians, Moroccans, Tunisians, and Afghans.

France has seen some of the starkest figures. In the Marne department, bone analyses of 240 individuals claiming to be unaccompanied minors found that 80 percent (192 people) were actually adults.

French MP Charles de Courson highlighted the financial burden in a parliamentary speech, “Eighty percent of unaccompanied migrants in France’s northeast Marne department who declared themselves thus are not minors, with the cost of caring for these 160 false minors costing €5,000 per month, which equals for €60,000 per year for each one.”

A separate 2019 experiment by the Paris prosecutor’s office examined 154 formally identified “minors” and found 91.6 percent (141) were adults via medical exams. Prosecutors noted that adults were systematically exploiting the protective regime established for minors under a 1945 law.

Belgium reported comparable results. A study of data from Justice Minister Koen Geens showed that of 4,563 migrants declaring themselves minors, authorities doubted 2,546 claims. Age tests on a sample revealed that 73.7 percent were over 18. Flemish MP Tom Van Grieken stated bluntly: “Asylum seekers guilty of age fraud should be denied the right to asylum.”

Sweden recorded an even higher rate: health authorities found 84 percent of tested “child migrants” were actually 18 or older. In Germany, forensic examinations in Münster showed around 40 percent of examined “unaccompanied minor refugees” were demonstrably adults, with many sharing suspicious January 1 birthdates — a common indicator of fabricated identities.

Remix News has also documented specific incidents in Spain itself that align with this pattern. In one Madrid case reported in October 2025, a Moroccan man accused of raping a 14-year-old girl claimed to be 17; age verification determined he was likely 23, with 14 prior convictions, leading to his case being transferred to adult court.

A European Parliament fact-finding mission to Spain’s Canary Islands similarly found that roughly half of unaccompanied minors there were actually adults, highlighting failures in age assessment amid high illegal arrivals.

An issue across Europe

Across Europe, the incentive structure remains largely unchanged, with minor status providing immediate protection and resources while adult status often leads to faster removal proceedings. Medical tests, such as bone density, dental, or wrist X-rays, are imperfect but consistently reveal high fraud rates when applied. Some countries are reacting with stricter testing, but often left-wing parties want to ban such tests altogether.

The Madrid Fiscalía’s 2024 data adds Spain to the growing list of European jurisdictions where official statistics confirm that the “unaccompanied minor” category is being heavily exploited. With over 11,000 cases handled in Madrid alone since 2018 and frauds tripling in a single year, the scale suggests the problem is not anecdotal but structural.

As European governments grapple with migration pressures, these consistent findings from across Europe show a reality that is not going away. Without adequate and robust testing age verification and meaningful consequences for fraud, the EU system will continue to reward deception from Europe’s rapidly growing illegal migrant population.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 05:00

Trump Signals Willingness To Sell Turkey F-35 Jets Despite Loud Netanyahu Protests

Trump Signals Willingness To Sell Turkey F-35 Jets Despite Loud Netanyahu Protests

Israel and Turkey are in a bit of a tug-of-war with President Trump and potential major arms deals hanging in the balance. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vehemently complained to Trump in a Friday call about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's escalating anti-Israel rhetoric, officials cited in Axios said.

Netanyahu specifically pressed Trump block sales of weapons systems to Turkey, especially those that would help Turkey modernize its air force. Of central issue remains potential F-35 transfer, which if carried through would outrage Israeli leaders. Turkey was blocked from the program in 2019 after the NATO member state went through with acquiring Russia's S-400 air defense system on fears that the US advanced fighter jets classified systems could be compromised.

via Associated Press

Also central to current negotiations with Washington is a $700 million deal for new engines for Turkey's fighter jets. Turkey's welcome ceremony for Trump and his entourage was expectedly lavish, complete with honor guards and military bands, and even cannons firing.

Erdogan has said that Trump is adding "might and strength" to the summit. Trump has in turn said of the Turkish president, "We are great friends" - and extolled the beauty of Turkey's modernized infrastructure. Turkey is a country to be "reckoned" with, Trump said soon after touching down, "and the nice part is that because of the relationship that we have, it’s all gone very well."

Most importantly, Trump, signaled his intent to sell Turkey F-35 fighter jets, per CNN:

US President Donald Trump said he would soon decide whether to sell Turkey F-35 fighter jets despite a Congressional ban as he praised the country as more loyal than other recipients of the plane.

"We have a better relationship with Turkey, and Turkey has been in many ways much more loyal than other countries that we think would be loyal," Trump said, arguing many believe the country should be able to purchase the F-35s, despite its purchase of a Russian air defense system.

Trump said the sales are "something certainly we consider."

"It’s a great plane, it’s the best, currently the best plane by far, and certainly something we will consider," he said.

This is after prior reporting indicated that "US officials told CNN earlier that Trump is expected to signal this week that he is willing to sell the country F-35s, reversing a ban he put in place during his first term that has since been ratified into law." Erdogan has newly stated that Turkey has been promised five F-35 jets.

However, getting around the congressional ban remains to be seen. But Trump said enough in Ankara on Tuesday to put the Israelis on edge. 

Netanyahu told Fox News on Monday that "Turkey is a great country, but it's governed by a man who calls openly for the annihilation of Israel" - in reference to Erdogan. "He occupies half of Cyprus, a NATO country. He's threatening Greece, another NATO country, and he talks openly about conquering Jerusalem."

The Israeli leader also said that giving Ankara F-35s or fighter jet engines would "upset the power balance in the Middle East, which is ultimately guaranteed by Israeli air superiority and also by, I think, by America's posture in the Middle East."

Turkey is also seen as supportive of the new Sharaa government in Damascus, at a moment Israeli forces are occupying portions of southern Syria. The two rival powers have nearly directly clashed at times over their competing Syria policies.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 04:15

    Watch: MEP Forces EU To Address Wave Of Savage Migrant Attacks Throughout Europe

    Watch: MEP Forces EU To Address Wave Of Savage Migrant Attacks Throughout Europe

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

    In a decisive move highlighting the growing crisis of migrant violence across Europe, Sweden Democrats MEP Charlie Weimers has successfully pushed the European Parliament to debate recent fatal attacks on native Europeans, and their direct implications for public security on the streets.

    Weimers' intervention comes in the immediate wake of the savage beating death of 32-year-old Swedish father Christian Zedig, ensuring the tragedy cannot be swept aside as just another "isolated incident" by those invested in open borders policies.

    Weimers delivered a stark address to the chamber, laying bare the human cost:

    "In recent days, Europe has once again been reminded of the very real threats to public security on our streets. In Copenhagen, Swedish police officer Christian Zedig, a 32-year-old father of two, was brutally beaten to death at a world cup fan zone," Weimers urged.

    He continued, "He was off duty, simply watching a match with friends, when he tried to calm a situation, he was attacked and stomped to death. In Milan Italy, a Gambian migrant stabbed an innocent man 20 times. He said it was for fun, and that he would do it again when he gets out. These are not isolated incidents, they are part of a broader pattern that is undermining the safety of ordinary Europeans."

    His words cut through the usual parliamentary fog, naming the pattern that too many officials prefer to obscure. The debate, later today will addresses the urgent need to confront how unchecked migration is eroding safety in European cities and public spaces.

    Weimers expressed astonishment that Swedish Social Democrats voted against even holding the discussion, posting the voting record as evidence. This reluctance speaks volumes about priorities: shielding failed migration policies over acknowledging the suffering of ordinary citizens and their families.

    The Zedig family's nightmare began at a seemingly ordinary World Cup fan zone in Copenhagen's Islands Brygge area. Christian had traveled with friends to watch Norway face Ivory Coast before Sweden's own match. Wearing his national team shirt, he was enjoying the atmosphere when violence erupted.

    A group of seven or eight young African men, according to eyewitnesses speaking to Danish media, arrived not to watch football but to provoke. They taunted supporters, threw beer and objects after Norway's late winning goal by Erling Haaland, then rushed a table of Scandinavian fans.

    Zedig was punched in the head, collapsed immediately, and was then repeatedly stomped by multiple attackers while lying defenseless on the ground. The assailants fled the scene. Despite medical efforts, Zedig succumbed to his catastrophic injuries, leaving behind a devastated wife and two young daughters who will grow up without their father. Swedish police confirmed the death of their colleague, with local officers holding a memorial gathering.

    His sister's emotional tribute captured the family's anguish: "My beautiful and thoroughly good-hearted brother. How will we make it without you with us? Who gave them the right to take you away from us? The grief is never-ending." Friends and colleagues described him as a dedicated officer and family man, making the senseless loss even more painful.

    The main suspect, identified as an African migrant with a history of prior assaults and criminal convictions, eventually turned himself in to Danish police after authorities publicly released his photograph. He was arrested and remanded in custody for up to 26 days. While the formal charge had not yet been upgraded to murder at the time of initial proceedings, the facts of the mob attack speak for themselves.

    This horror is the latest in a string of incidents that Weimers and like-minded MEPs have been warning about for years.

    Media handling of the tragedy has only added fuel to public anger. Danish broadcaster TV2 aired live footage of a minute of silence held for Zedig before the later Norway-Brazil match at the same fan zone. The clip reportedly captured migrants ignoring the tribute or even laughing.

    When the segment re-aired in a news broadcast, those seconds were conveniently edited out, shielding viewers from the disrespect.

    Weimers has consistently exposed the consequences of mass immigration and demographic shifts. In March, alongside other lawmakers, he helped spotlight the spread of no-go zones tied to rapid Islamization and uncontrolled inflows.

    A New Direction report analyzed high-crime neighborhoods across Europe, ranking areas like Franc Moisin in France and Rosengård in Malmö by metrics of violence, parallel societies, unemployment, school failure, and emergency service breakdowns. These zones show strong correlations with high shares of foreign-born and Muslim populations, where state authority recedes and other rules prevail.

    French MEP Marion Maréchal emphasized the data: France alone has hundreds of sensitive urban areas disproportionately linked to these dynamics. The report serves as a documented indictment of policies that have allowed parallel societies to flourish.

    At a Warsaw conference around the same time, experts warned bluntly that Europeans are committing demographic suicide. Low native birth rates combined with high migration from younger, culturally distant populations create unsustainable pressures.

    Outdated tools like the Geneva Convention were called "sacred cows" in need of reform, with calls to renationalize asylum and migration policy to restore national control. Speakers contrasted thriving, cohesive Polish cities with decaying Western European examples overwhelmed by crime and social breakdown.

    Despite institutional resistance, conservative and sovereignist forces have scored tangible victories. The European Parliament backed major updates to the Returns Regulation, a breakthrough expanding deportation powers, mutual recognition of orders across member states, longer detention periods, extended entry bans, and possibilities for return hubs outside EU territory.

    Weimers described stricter return rules as one of the Sweden Democrats' biggest negotiating successes, declaring "the era of deportations has begun."

    Italian PM Giorgia Meloni welcomed the changes as validation of her government's approach. Other leaders from the right celebrated the shift toward enforcement and national sovereignty over Brussels dictates.

    Leftist reactions included chants of "shame" met with counter-chants of "send them back," followed by complaints about conservatives celebrating the win with a rooftop gathering - moments of dark comedy amid the stakes.

    These advances prove that persistent advocacy can shift policy, even if implementation lags and globalist pushback - from the UN and others - continues. Yet incidents like Zedig's murder demonstrate why speed matters. Return rates remain abysmal under old rules, allowing repeat offenders and unintegrated migrants to remain threats.

    Zedig's death is tragically familiar. From stabbings to grooming scandals, rioting, and everyday street violence, the data on overrepresentation in crime statistics across Western Europe is inescapable for those willing to examine it. Fan zones, once symbols of shared celebration, now risk becoming flashpoints due to imported rivalries and lack of respect for host societies.

    Weimers' Rule 164 initiative forces the Parliament to address implications head-on: rising insecurity, strained police resources, cultural fragmentation, and the demographic trajectory that amplifies risks. Ignoring it invites more tragedy and deeper societal division.

    Europe stands at a crossroads. Decades of elite-driven mass immigration without regard for compatibility, numbers, or enforcement have produced predictable results: overburdened welfare systems, no-go areas, terror threats, and innocent victims. Families torn apart, communities on edge, and taxpayers funding the consequences.

    The successes on remigration tools offer hope, but only if national governments wield them aggressively. Weimers and allies are dragging the conversation toward reality - prioritizing citizens' safety, cultural cohesion, and sovereignty. The votes against even debating the matter reveals who still clings to denial.

    As the Parliament convenes, the message is clear: enough is enough. Europeans deserve leaders who secure borders, enforce returns, and put their own people first. The era of looking the other way must end.

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 03:30

    Rutte Touts 'Literally Billions' Invested To Drastically Ramp Up NATO's Drone Capabilities

    Rutte Touts 'Literally Billions' Invested To Drastically Ramp Up NATO's Drone Capabilities

    NATO leadership has this week made clear where it plans to invest a bulk of defense and tech-related funds in the coming years, while making express reference to lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield.

    The alliance's Secretary General Mark Rutte said Tuesday that drone warfare is the next great expanse in NATO capabilities. He touted that member states are unveiling "major new projects" worth "literally billions of dollars" at the Ankara summit. "These are billions that are invested in our security, boosting our economies and supporting hundreds of thousands of new jobs," Rutte stated. "It’s money well spent."

    Anadolu Agency

    He unveiled that among the projects include the NATO future procurement of five "high-end, high-altitude and long-endurance uncrewed aircraft" from Northrop Grumman.

    Defense News reviews:

    Built by Northrop Grumman, the MQ-4C Triton is a high-altitude, long-endurance UAV specifically designed for maritime surveillance over vast stretches of sea.

    According to Rutte, the aircraft will help NATO detect threats early, protect sea lines of communication, and support operations in demanding regions, such as the High North. "These aircraft can fly for long periods at high altitude and cover large areas, including over open water, more efficiently than most other aircraft can," he said at the event, organized to coincide with the NATO summit this week.

    Rutte stressed that intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) is a vital capability for the alliance, as it provides the situational awareness needed to make the right decisions and stay ahead of threats. "Today, allies are taking a concrete step to strengthen this capability," he added.

    An additional project area outlined by Rutte involves 40 billion dollars' worth of investment in "counter-drone capabilities over the next five years," the alliance additionally said in a statement.

    Another drone-focused initiative is a goal for allies to "train five times as many drone operators by the end of 2027." This is where the Ukraine experience seems to have deeply informed NATO doctrine and direction. 

    "Drones have fundamentally altered the character of modern warfare and become a decisive factor on the battlefield," the alliance said in its statement. "These initiatives will be essential to increase both Alliance readiness and resilience."

    Western backers of the Zelensky government have of late been hailing the effectiveness of Ukraine forces' long-range drone strikes, which have often devastated major Russian refineries and energy infrastructure.

    At the same time NATO officials are seeking to make a positive impression on President Trump, after he's long demanded the alliance collectively raise the bar much higher on defense investment and spending. All of this could kick the can further in terms of needless escalation with Russia - especially the ongoing support to Ukraine's long-range drones and missiles, which are being sent deeper and deeper into Russian territory.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 02:45

    What Future Awaits Ukrainian Military-Aged Male Refugees In The EU?

    What Future Awaits Ukrainian Military-Aged Male Refugees In The EU?

    Authored by Andrew Korybko,

    Recent moves at the European and national levels bode ill for them...

    The European Commission proposed to exclude new military-aged Ukrainian men from the bloc’s special refugee protection scheme per Ukraine’s request to help replenish its lost forces. For background, new Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov shockingly revealed in January that 200,000 men have already deserted thus far and ten times more (2 million) are actively dodging the draft. Moreover, adult men comprise 26% of the 4.3 million Ukrainians in the EU for another one million potential conscripts.

    The forcible conscription policy known as “busification”, which refers to capturing military-aged men off the street and throwing them into minibuses that then take them straight to local training centers and finally the frontlines, is wildly unpopular and increasingly being resisted by the population. It’s therefore much easier for the EU to deport ineligible military-aged men that flee to the bloc going forward, but the ideal solution from Ukraine’s perspective is for all those that are already there to be deported as well.

    Denmark is planning to do precisely that. According to RT, “The Danish authorities want to amend a special law passed in 2022 to make Ukrainian men aged 23 to 60 ineligible for temporary residence permits unless they have been granted an exemption from military service. Ukrainian men under 23 would only be granted residence permits until they reach draft age.” Less than 50,000 Ukrainians have residence permits under this law, and maybe one-quarter are adult males, but it would still be symbolic.

    Other countries could potentially follow Denmark’s lead on the basis that they too, as explained by the Danish Immigration Minister, “never intended for our residence rules to be used to avoid mobilization into the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Doing so undermines Ukraine’s war effort and weakens the country’s ability to defend itself against Russian attacks.” Amidst the spiraling Polish-Ukrainian dispute over Zelensky’s state glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits, all eyes are on Warsaw.

    The ruling liberal coalition, like the conservative government that it replaced in late 2023, appears to be in favor of retaining special privileges for adult Ukrainian males for alleged economic reasons. Be that as it may, the conservatives have recently soured on Ukraine and its refugees, nowadays signaling that they might be open to deporting some of them. While that would help Ukraine against Russia like Poland has always sought to do, it would also be doing Zelensky’s bidding, so they might reconsider their support.

    Likewise, the Ukrainophilic liberal coalition might sacrifice the alleged economic benefits that Poland receives from adult Ukrainian male refugees by deporting them, albeit with the purpose of pleasing Zelensky and perhaps as an “olive branch” amidst the conservative president’s feud with him. It’s too early to tell what this group’s future in Poland might be, but the scenario of at least some of them being deported can’t be ruled out, which could help the liberals ahead of fall 2027’s next Sejm elections.

    As Ukraine continues to lose ground along the front, which the dramatic visuals from its recent spree of strikes against Russia is aimed in part at distracting the global public from, Kiev is expected to ramp up its pressure campaign against the EU – and particularly Poland – to obtain more meat for the grinder.

    Trump’s plans of “escalating to de-escalate” with Russia through an intense “war of attrition” require the replenishment of Ukraine’s forces, so if “busification” doesn’t suffice, then this is the only fallback plan.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 02:00

    "F**k The USA": Professor Delights Chicago Crowd With Anti-American And Anti-Border Rant

    "F**k The USA": Professor Delights Chicago Crowd With Anti-American And Anti-Border Rant

    Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

    I have previously written about the "radical chic" in higher education of faculty members who espouse extremist views in departments purged of conservative, libertarian, or moderate voices. While it is virtually impossible to get departments to seriously consider a mainstream conservative or libertarian, schools like Princeton eagerly hire professors such as Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor, who recently delighted a Chicago audience with an unhinged rant against the United States and the concept of a nation-state.

    Bill Ayers and Princeton's Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor appeared at a July 4th event and denounced the country and its anniversary.

    Taylor thrilled the crowd by recounting her disgust that a woman gave her child an American flag at the airport. She credited herself by not instantly burning it, but went on to denounce the country and credited the audience for its "F**k the U.S." attitude.

    Notably, Taylor suggested that only fools rally behind the flag or the notion of a nation-state. She clearly believes not just in open borders but rejects the very concept of borders. She repeatedly declared that "borders kill" and suggested that patriotic people are simply dupes.

    Bill Ayers is a former professor and one of the founders of the domestic terrorist organization, the Weather Underground. His wife, Bernardine Dohrn, was also a member of the group, and both were fugitives for several years. Dohrn is also a professor who has taught at Northwestern University School of Law.

    Taylor is a Professor in the Department of African-American Studies at Princeton University. She writes for the New Yorker.

    In the Chicago event, Taylor called on others to reject "the idea of loving a nation state, which is what patriotism is." She repeatedly returned to the theme that borders are "deadly" and "borders kill people." She explained that we have to erase any borders because they are "a tool of death and destruction."

    Furthermore, she emphasized that the very concept of a nation-state should be the "object of political struggle."

    This reflects the level of intellectual rigor in departments like the one at Princeton. Her writings have been honored by the Marguerite Casey Foundation and Group Health Foundation, the Organization of American Historians, and the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation (which gave her a fellowship).

    On one level, the erasure of borders could be viewed as the "withering away of the state" espoused by Friedrich Engels and later by Vladimir Lenin. However, it reads more like the jargonistic narrative common in higher education, where radicals espouse such views without serious challenge from their colleagues.

    Even European states that once allowed expanded undocumented migration are now struggling to reverse course due to the high social and security costs. However, academics such as Taylor tell students that we can eradicate any nation-states and live without borders. While most people would expect such views to be espoused by raving lunatics on the subway, Princeton made her a chair professor as the Hughes-Rogers Professor of African American Studies.

    Her writings are celebrated for her combination of socialism and identity politics. The gushing articles even include praise for her use of emojis. ("All those cry-laughing yellow orbs betrayed a critic with a sense of humor.").

    Few colleagues or critics feel comfortable noting that views like the eradication of the nation-state or erasure of borders are little more than unsupported, jargon-saturated tripe. There is no effort to push her on what happens to an economy without borders where the country (or whatever will replace the nation-state) is responsible for supporting millions of immigrants.

    When you hear young socialists in the Mamdani Administration (including Mamdani himself) speaking of "seizing the means of production," it is the result of college classes taught by figures like Taylor, who offer little more than shallow sound bites and slogans. They have been told that socialism is a successful economic model despite its utter failure historically. It is a fable told by the uninformed to the unquestioning: unicorn economics, eagerly embraced like a bedtime story.

    The alternative is what I have called the "liberty-enhancing economy" that the Framers embraced. The combination of political and economic freedom made this republic the greatest engine of prosperity and human rights in history. That does not mean that we do not have difficult economic and social problems. However, the suggestion that we should embrace socialism and erase borders is properly viewed as perfectly bonkers ... outside of higher education.

    Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of "Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution."

    Tyler Durden Tue, 07/07/2026 - 23:25

    Bill Clinton Insider Warns Of Socialist Takeover, Calls For Probe Into Possible DSA Foreign Ties

    Bill Clinton Insider Warns Of Socialist Takeover, Calls For Probe Into Possible DSA Foreign Ties

    Mark Penn, the former chief White House pollster and strategic advisor to President Bill Clinton for six years, used a Wall Street Journal op-ed titled "The Socialist Threat Is Real" to warn that far-left radicals are hijacking the Democratic Party.

    The problem for Democrats is that years of letting socialists and Marxists into their DEI kingdom have only now produced dire consequences. Status quo Democrats are watching their power evaporate as Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates defeat mainstream Democrats in primaries across New York, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and other states.

    Penn's warning was blunt: "America will be in serious trouble if Democrats fail to defend their party."

    "This 'revolution' is driven not by the working class but by the urban professional class that is willing to support candidates who celebrate 9/11, cheer at the massacre of 1,000 Israeli and American kids, would defund the police, abolish prisons, end private property and open the borders," Penn explained.

    Penn and his fellow status quo party members are watching in real time as their party transforms almost overnight from one once built around labor, civil rights and working-class citizens into one increasingly defined by anti-American rhetoric, hostility toward capitalism, support for foreign adversaries, calls to abolish jails, race-based politics and, of course, utter disdain for the Constitution.

    What DSA stands for:

    Our latest profiling of the new Democratic Party appears to show how DSA-ers are far detached from traditional American values and openly hostile to the country's founding institutions:

    Meet the new Democratic Party:

    Meet the unofficial DSA spokesman:

    Penn's op-ed then called for immediate investigations into the DSA to determine whether the socialists are "being funded by foreign governments and interests."

    He said, "Lawmakers, law-enforcement agencies and journalists should investigate the DSA to see if it is being funded by foreign governments and interests."

    It only appears as if Penn reads ZeroHedge:

    Or perhaps Penn sees the writing on the wall:

    Penn explains that if the DSA is not properly handled, then "New York and other cities will decay further."

    Penn's call for investigations into the DSA, including whether the group is funded or supported by foreign governments or foreign interests, may not have come out of nowhere.

    The broader concern is that federal officials are investigating whether elements of the far-left activist NGO sphere have been influenced by foreign-linked networks. Investigations are focused on China and Cuba.

    Penn's decision to write an op-ed attacking the socialists only highlights the growing alarm inside the Democratic Party.

    The question now is whether traditional Democrats begin looking across the political aisle to counter the socialist wing before it gains even more ground in low-turnout primaries and deep-blue districts. A bipartisan anti-socialist push would have been unthinkable not long ago, but if the DSA keeps toppling incumbents and reshaping the party from within, that may be exactly where this fight is headed.

    President Trump has been gearing up for the political fight against the radical left, in which he said on Truth Social last month: "The Communists are finally making their move. I've been waiting and preparing for this for a long time."

    Tyler Durden Tue, 07/07/2026 - 23:00

    How Interceptor Missiles Work: The Technology Behind Stopping Missiles In Mid-Air

    How Interceptor Missiles Work: The Technology Behind Stopping Missiles In Mid-Air

    Authored by Kaif Shaikh via Interesting Engineering,

    Intercepting a missile sounds straightforward. Launch another missile at it before it reaches its target. In reality, it is one of the most technically demanding challenges of defense.

    Here's how modern interceptor missiles protect against aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic threats.Getty Images

    Unlike offensive missiles, interceptor missiles must detect, track, calculate, and collide with a target that may be traveling several times the speed of sound, often within a matter of minutes. Some even destroy their targets without carrying an explosive warhead, relying instead on the sheer force of impact. Here's how interceptor missiles work.

    It Starts With Detection

    An interceptor missile is only as effective as the network supporting it. Long before an interceptor launches, satellites equipped with infrared sensors detect the intense heat generated by a missile launch. Ground- and sea-based radars then begin tracking the missile's trajectory, calculating where it is likely to travel and, more importantly, where it can be intercepted.

    This information is continuously shared across a command-and-control network that decides whether an engagement is necessary, selects the most suitable interceptor, and determines the optimal launch time.

    Predicting Where A Missile Will Be

    One of the biggest misconceptions is that interceptor missiles simply "chase" incoming threats. Instead, fire-control computers predict the future position of the target based on its speed, altitude, direction, and expected flight path. The interceptor is launched toward that predicted intercept point rather than directly at the missile's current location.

    As both missiles continue moving, onboard guidance systems receive updated tracking data and constantly adjust the interceptor's course until it reaches the target. The entire process, from detection to interception, may take only a few minutes for short-range ballistic missiles.

    Three Opportunities To Intercept

    Ballistic missiles travel through three distinct flight phases, each offering different interception opportunities. The boost phase begins immediately after launch while the rocket motors are still burning. During this stage, the missile is highly visible due to its intense infrared signature, but interception is extremely difficult because defensive systems must already be positioned near the launch site.

    The midcourse phase is the longest portion of flight, when the warhead travels through space after booster separation. Systems such as the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense using SM-3 interceptors and the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense are designed to engage threats during this stage.

    Finally comes the terminal phase, when the warhead re-enters the atmosphere and descends toward its target. Systems such as THAAD and Patriot PAC-3 operate in this phase, providing the final opportunity to stop an incoming missile before impact.

    Hit-To-Kill Versus Explosive Interception

    Not every interceptor destroys its target in the same way. Many older interceptor missiles use blast-fragmentation warheads, detonating near the incoming missile and destroying it with high-speed metal fragments.

    Modern systems increasingly rely on hit-to-kill technology. Rather than exploding nearby, these interceptors collide directly with the incoming missile at extremely high speed. The enormous kinetic energy generated by the impact is sufficient to destroy or disable the target without carrying a large explosive payload. Systems including THAAD, SM-3, and Patriot PAC-3 employ hit-to-kill interception for many ballistic missile defense missions.

    Why Is Interception So Difficult?

    Intercepting a missile is often compared to "hitting a bullet with another bullet," but the reality is even more challenging. Incoming ballistic missiles can travel at several kilometers per second, leaving defenders with only a narrow engagement window. Modern missiles may also deploy decoys, maneuver during flight, or fly at lower altitudes to complicate tracking.

    Weather, electronic warfare, radar coverage, and terrain can further reduce the time available to detect and engage a threat. For this reason, countries increasingly rely on layered missile defense, where multiple interceptor systems operate at different ranges and altitudes. If one layer fails, another still has an opportunity to intercept the incoming missile.

    Examples Of Interceptor Missiles

    Different interceptor missiles are optimized for different threats. The Patriot PAC-3 focuses on defending military bases and cities against ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and aircraft during the terminal phase.

    THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) intercepts short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles at much higher altitudes, including outside Earth's atmosphere. The naval SM-3 interceptor protects ships and allied territories by engaging ballistic missiles during their midcourse phase, while SM-6 provides additional terminal defense against aircraft, cruise missiles, and some ballistic threats.

    Other countries operate systems such as Israel's Arrow-3, David's Sling, and Iron Dome, each designed for different ranges and threat types.

    The Future Of Missile Interception

    As hypersonic glide vehicles and maneuverable ballistic missiles become more common, traditional interception methods are becoming increasingly challenging. Future systems are expected to combine more capable sensors, artificial intelligence-assisted tracking, and new interceptors, such as the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), currently under development, to engage hypersonic threats before they begin their final descent.

    While no missile defense system offers perfect protection, modern layered architectures have significantly improved the ability to detect, track, and intercept increasingly sophisticated threats. Success ultimately depends not on a single interceptor missile but on the seamless integration of satellites, radars, command networks, and multiple defensive layers that work together within seconds.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 07/07/2026 - 22:35

    Revolutionary War Cannons Hidden For 240 Years Go On Display

    Revolutionary War Cannons Hidden For 240 Years Go On Display

    A remarkable collection of Revolutionary War artifacts that lay hidden beneath the Savannah River for nearly 240 years is now on public display in Georgia's oldest city as the nation marks America's 250th anniversary, according to Fox News.

    The Savannah History Museum officially unveiled 19 cannons recovered from the river as part of its new Loyalists & Liberty: Savannah in the American Revolution exhibit. Historians say the discovery represents the largest cache of 18th-century artillery ever recovered from a single Revolutionary War naval event.

    Fox News wrote that the cannons were discovered unexpectedly in 2021 after crews with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers uncovered them while dredging the Savannah River to deepen the shipping channel for larger cargo vessels.

    "When they were recovered, the cannons were heavily encrusted with oyster shells and marine growth after centuries underwater," said Nora Fleming Lee, CEO of the Coastal Heritage Society. In addition to the artillery pieces, crews also found smaller artifacts, and several of the cannons still contained cannonballs and their original gunpowder charges.

    Following their recovery, most of the cannons were transported to a preservation laboratory at Texas A&M University, where conservators spent several years removing salt from the iron through a specialized electrolysis process before stabilizing and protecting the metal for long-term display.

    Seventeen of the cannons underwent full restoration, while two were intentionally left in their original condition so visitors can compare how they looked when first pulled from the river. All 19 are now permanently exhibited at the museum.

    Researchers believe the weapons came from British ships that were deliberately scuttled in 1779 to create a blockade across the narrowest section of the Savannah River. The barrier was intended to prevent French naval forces from sailing upriver and helping American troops retake Savannah, which was then under British control.

    The ships are believed to have been sunk only weeks before the Battle of Savannah, one of the deadliest engagements of the Revolutionary War, where more than 800 casualties were recorded in less than an hour. The battle took place on the same grounds where the Savannah History Museum stands today.

    Museum officials say the exhibit goes beyond showcasing military artifacts. Through the stories of Indigenous people, enslaved and free Black residents, women, children and other overlooked figures, it explores Savannah's role in the American Revolution from multiple perspectives, using the recovered cannons as a centerpiece to tell a broader and more inclusive story of the nation's founding.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 07/07/2026 - 22:10

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