Hundreds Of Subpoenas Are Targeting The Russian Collusion Hoax

According to Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, the Justice Department is hunting the architects of the Russia hoax, and they’re leaving no stone unturned.

Blanche sat down with Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures to discuss what he says is a sweeping criminal investigation into the origins of one of the most destructive political operations in history. 

The Southern District of Florida has an open criminal probe. Hundreds of subpoenas. Hundreds of witnesses. Blanche insists the DOJ is working hard and working efficiently. Bartiromo, who has been covering this story for nearly 10 years, wanted answers on why the process has taken so long.

“What have you done about it?” she asked point-blank.

"Well, look, that's exactly what we're investigating right now. And by the way, what is not in dispute is that the whole Russia hoax, there was absolutely nothing to it," Blanche told Bartiromo.

"And so the question that the American people have to ask is, well, then why did they do it? Why did Comey say what he said? Why did the outgoing Obama administration do what they did?”

Blanche continued.

“And that's what we're studying right now, because it did great damage to this country. It did great damage to President Trump's first term. And we want to understand why that happened, why there are continued to be an effort by operatives in the government to go after President Trump while he was in office, and then, of course, over the past several years as well.”

 But Bartiromo wasn’t accepting his statements at face value.

 "I'd like to know why it's taking so long," Bartiromo pressed.

"Has the statute of limitations run up? Do you have no more wiggle room in terms of zeroing in on things like the Mueller report, the Nunes report, and all the evidence that was clear — that they knew there was no Russia collusion?"

Blanche pushed back on the statute-of-limitations concern, arguing that the conspiracy arguably continued well past its origins (through the Mar-a-Lago raid in 2023), which could extend the legal exposure considerably. He framed the entire thing as potentially one continuous criminal conspiracy, stretching from 2015 through 2023 as part of a singular effort to destroy President Trump. "Whether that's one conspiracy that continued from 2015, 2016, all the way up to 2023 is what we're looking at right now," Blanche said. "We're finding out some incredibly troubling things. And at some point at the right time, that will be made public."

 "When is the time right?” Bartiromo asked. “When should we expect these charges of conspiracy?" 

“Well, I mean, look, as has been publicly reported, the Southern District of Florida has an open criminal investigation,” Blanche explained. “That involves hundreds of subpoenas. It involves hundreds of witnesses. And so, as far as timing and when we can expect it, we are working hard, and we are working efficiently, but we are going to do it right. We are not going to rush something, rush something that shouldn't, that isn't ready. We're not going to reach a conclusion before our investigation is over. But I assure you and I assure the American people that we are completely focused on it.” 

With hundreds of subpoenas and hundreds of witnesses, this is clearly no small investigation. And considering the media and Democrats will scrutinize every move, the DOJ knows it can’t afford to cut corners. In a case this explosive, being thorough matters a lot more than moving fast.

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 21:20

Trump Demands DOJ Probe Of Maryland's 500,000 "Illegal" Mail-In Ballots

Submitted by Maryland Freedom Caucus,

President Donald Trump is demanding immediate action from the Department of Justice over Maryland's exploding mail-in ballot scandal, and he's not mincing words.

In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump slammed the fiasco:

 "In Maryland, they sent out 500,000 Illegal Mail In Ballots, and they got caught! So now, they're going to send out 500,000 more Mail In Ballots, but nobody knows what's happening with the first 500,000 they sent. … I'm going to ask the Attorney General of the United States, and the DOJ, to bring an immediate investigation into this situation."

The Maryland State Board of Elections admitted late last week that a third-party vendor printed and mailed roughly 400,000 ballots for the June 23 gubernatorial primary, with an undetermined number of voters receiving the wrong party's candidates. Because officials cannot tell exactly who received the flawed ballots, they are re-mailing replacements to every voter who requested one before May 14. However, the original ballots remain in circulation.

The Maryland Freedom Caucus was first out of the gate. On May 16, we issued a press release exposing the crisis, demanding that Jared DeMarinis release Maryland's voter rolls for a federal audit, and warning that "400,000 double ballots in circulation" threaten the fundamental principle of one vote, one person.

To restore faith in Maryland's electoral process, decisive action is necessary. We must release the voter rolls to the federal government to allow for a thorough audit into the reported issuance of 400,000 incorrect ballots. pic.twitter.com/39PJlDyKiN

— Maryland Freedom Caucus (@MDFreedomCaucus) May 16, 2026

This is not an isolated glitch. Last fall, the Maryland Freedom Caucus and our partners at Secure the Vote MD blew the lid off the Ian Roberts case — an illegal alien from Guyana who was registered to vote in Maryland for years, requested absentee ballots, and remained on the active rolls even after his arrest. That single case proved what we've warned for years: Maryland's voter rolls are bloated with non-citizens, deceased voters, and people who no longer live here.

Worse, when the DOJ requested Maryland's full voter registration data last year, the State Board of Elections stonewalled. Administrator DeMarinis specifically asked whether the list would be used for immigration enforcement before providing anything meaningful - a clear admission that transparency threatens their continued subterfuge.

BREAKING: Another Maryland Man controversy!

Have you heard the story of Ian Andre Roberts, the Superintendent for Des Moines Public Schools? He was arrested late last week for a standing deportation order. Turns out, he is actively registered to vote in Maryland, despite being… pic.twitter.com/T7XlAobQ6O

— Maryland Freedom Caucus (@MDFreedomCaucus) September 29, 2025

President Trump's call for a DOJ investigation is the national spotlight this scandal desperately needs. Permanent, no-excuse mail-in voting was sold as "convenient and secure." In reality, it has become a black box that erodes public trust and invites chaos, exactly as the Maryland Freedom Caucus has warned.

But calls for investigation without an immediate remedy will not restore Marylanders' confidence in their elections. Governor Wes Moore must immediately issue an executive order to restore strict chain-of-custody controls: end the use of unmonitored drop boxes, suspend the use of USPS for local delivery, require that all marked ballots be returned directly to a local Board of Elections office, and implement real-time logging so every ballot can be tracked from voter to canvass.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 20:55

Wayfair CFO's Muted Home-Goods Demand Outlook Offers More Bad News For Realtors

Wayfair CFO Kate Gulliver appeared at JPMorgan's conference Monday morning in a discussion with the bank's retail analyst, Christopher Horvers.

What caught our attention in the 35-minute conversation, which ranged from the online home-goods retailer's financial position to broader consumer trends, was Gulliver's outlook on home goods and housing markets.

A more active housing market typically drives demand for big-ticket home purchases such as sofas, tables, and other furnishings sold on Wayfair's online platform.

However, her forecast for the remainder of the year was decidedly muted, a gloomy outlook that may leave realtors and mortgage brokers uneasy.

Horvers asked Gulliver about the home goods and housing markets, including whether she was worried about soaring energy prices, the post-stimulus era, and how those factors could affect consumer demand for home goods over the rest of the year.

Her outlook for the rest of the year was not great. She noted that the home goods category "has not been a tailwind for us."

"At some point, this cyclical category will recover, but our expectations for 2026 and our guidance for the second quarter do not assume any category recovery. Our operating assumption for 2026 is that the category stays where it is," Gulliver explained.

Gulliver's dismal view of the home goods and housing markets for the rest of the year offers valuable insight because Wayfair is one of the largest online home-furnishings platforms in the U.S.

Much of Wayfair's consumer base consists of millennials and Gen Xers in the household-formation cycle, including raising a family, buying a home, or moving into a larger residence, all of which drive demand for furniture and such.

This muted activity she observes and forecasts also comes as the 30-year mortgage rate is back around 6.5%, up roughly 35 basis points from when the U.S.-Iran conflict began in late February.

Related:

• Most Americans Can't Afford New Homes

• Home Prices Register Biggest Annual Increase In More Than A Year: Report

• The Frozen Market For Homes

Gulliver's view serves as a proxy for the housing market. Her comments this morning offer no relief for the struggling realtors and mortgage brokers over the last several years.

Also to note, rate markets are pricing in hikes next year as energy inflation from the Hormuz chokepoint disruption pushes up inflation expectations and TSY yields soar.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 20:30

Combined NextEra-Dominion Would Have 130-GW Large-Load Pipeline

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive

Summary

• NextEra Energy plans to acquire Dominion Energy in an all-stock transaction announced Monday, potentially creating the largest regulated electric utility in the world — with 10 million customers in four states — if the deal passes muster with three state and two federal regulatory commissions.

• The companies have proposed $2.25 billion in bill credits for Dominion customers in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, and they say all customers would see benefits from “enhanced scale in operations, procurement, construction and financing.”

• The combined company would have a more than 130-GW large-load pipeline of projects and a rate base of $138 billion, which it expects to grow at approximately 11% through 2032, according to the deal announcement.

Company officials frame the deal as a win for customers by maintaining operating stability and putting downward pressure on rates while allowing the combined utility company to grow faster and more efficiently. Customer advocates, however, warned of the deal’s potential impact on consumers, and analysts say it could signal shifts in the utility operating model and wholesale markets.

“The Dominion Energy name isn’t changing, nor is how we operate locally, serve our customers or engage with the community,” NextEra Chairman, President and CEO John Ketchum said in a statement.

NextEra Chairman, President and CEO John Ketchum speaks during a panel at the BlackRock Infrastructure Summit in March 2026, in Washington, D.C.

The merger has been approved by the boards of directors of Dominion and NextEra, and the companies say they expect to close the transaction in 12 to 18 months subject to approvals from a host of regulators. The deal must be approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Virginia State Corporation Commission, North Carolina Utilities Commission and the Public Service Commission of South Carolina.

Customer advocate group Clean Virginia called for state officials to subject the proposed merger “to the most rigorous scrutiny possible.”

“This deal would hand control of Virginia’s electric grid to a company with a deeply troubling track record,” Brennan Gilmore, executive director of Clean Virginia, said in a statement.

“Before Virginia ratepayers are locked into a relationship with NextEra Energy, every policymaker and regulator in the Commonwealth needs to understand what NextEra has done in Florida,” he added, pointing to rate hikes and scandals around dark money political advocacy.

The companies say they plan to maintain dual headquarters in Florida and Virginia. NextEra owns Florida Power & Light, which serves 6 million customer accounts. Dominion serves 3.6 million electric customers in its three-state territory, and about 500,000 gas customers in South Carolina.

The combined entity would have an almost $250 billion market capitalization, which the companies said would make them the “world’s largest regulated electric utility business by market capitalization and one of the world’s largest energy infrastructure companies.”

Consensus data from S&P Global Visible Alpha paints a picture of two growing companies. Analysts expect NextEra to have total operating revenues of $30.6 billion this year, up 11.68% year over year; Dominion is expected to see total operating revenues of $18.4 billion, up 11.5% year over year.

Limited energy capacity remains a vital issue for the broad adoption of AI.

“This deal may support increased scale and efficiency in the space to support the ramp in data center compute,” Melissa Otto, head of research at S&P Global Visible Alpha, said in an email to Utility Dive.

The deal would combine “two well-run utility franchises,” Alex Kania, BTIG managing director and utilities and power analyst, said in a statement. There is some question about how the combination could impact operations in the PJM Interconnection, he noted.

“We believe [the deal] could mark a step to a return to the integrated utility model that has largely been abandoned over the past 10 years — but we think that model may end up being one of the better ways to address PJM resource adequacy. Stay tuned,” Kania said in a research note.

Dominion’s pipeline of contracted data center capacity now stands at about 51 GW, the company said earlier this month in its first-quarter earnings. And in Virginia, its largest utility market, Dominion sold 4% more electricity year over year in the first quarter of 2026. 

Dominion’s position in Virginia’s “data center alley” means the utility is “very well situated for large load growth,” Kania said. Its large load pipeline and PJM interconnection portfolio would pair with NextEra’s “vast generation development platform” of gas, renewables and storage.

The combined entity would be “one of just a few players in PJM that could readily offer comprehensive grid and generation solutions to large load,” Kania said.

The deal “makes much sense for NextEra to rebalance its business mix,” Jefferies equity analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith said in a Monday note. NextEra’s unregulated business has been growing faster than its utilities, “a trend expected to continue,” he said. “Buying a regulated business has been important for years.”

The combined business would be “anchored by a more than 80% regulated business mix, with approximately 11% regulatory capital employed growth across four fast-growing states with constructive regulatory environments,” Dominion and NextEra said.

Officials expressed confidence in getting the merger across the finish line.

“We have some experience getting deals done,” Robert Blue, Dominion chair, president and CEO, said in a call with analysts. “We feel very good about the way the deal has come together, with the focus on customers and communities, and that gives us a high degree of confidence.”

Under terms of the deal, Dominion shareholders will receive 0.8138 shares of NextEra Energy for each share of Dominion they own. The companies say this will result in NextEra and Dominion shareholders owning approximately 74.5% and 25.5% of the combined company, respectively.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 20:05

Almost All Non-Iran Tankers That Entered The Persian Gulf During The War, Have Successfully Exited With A Cargo

Despite a near-halt in daily Hormuz traffic, Bloomberg reports that almost all large non-Iranian tankers that have entered the Persian Gulf during the war appear to have successfully exited with a cargo, underscoring the emergence of a small group of shipowners willing to risk crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

At least 19 oil- and liquefied petroleum gas-carrying ships without Iranian links have both entered and exited Hormuz since March 1, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In contrast, about 100 such tankers that entered the Gulf before the conflict remain stuck for fear of attacks, the data show.

As noted above, merchant shipping through the vital energy chokepoint has - for the most part - ground to a halt since US-Israeli attacks at the end of February triggered a wave of Iranian retaliation and led Tehran to tighten its grip over the waterway. Yet a handful of vessels have been managing to cross under an array of schemes, including deals arranged at a government level (with payment in bitcoin) in some cases (and keep in mind that the numbers, both for ships stranded in the Gulf and those making the crossing, could be higher in reality, given many vessels in the region are switching off their satellite signals to protect against strikes).

Of the 19 ships to cross, seven have been linked to Greece’s Dynacom Tankers Management. The company has been one of the main firms to continue using the strait since the conflict began. In true honey badger form, the company is known to turn off its ship transponders and then to quietly make the Hormuz crossing usually under the cover of night. It is unclear if Dynacom had arranged any special arrangement with Tehran ahead of its crossings.  

The cargoes the vessels were carrying have largely been from the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. Of the rest, three were transporting oil from Saudi Arabia or a mix of oil from the kingdom and other Arab Gulf nations.

Only one large tanker that entered the Gulf after the war started hasn’t left, the data show.

The crossings are only a fraction of the typical Hormuz transits before the war, which accounted for about a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 19:40

Trump: Holding Off 'Planned' Attack On Iran At Request Of Gulf Allies, 'Deal Will Be Made' Summary

• Trump says holding off on 'planned' Tuesday attack upon request of Gulf states.
• US denies earlier Tasnim report of agreeing to lift oil sanctions during talks; Trump tells NYP 'not open' to Iran concessions.
• Trump calls for Iran's total military surrender in Monday morning Truth Social post.
• Oil rebounds on Tasnim reporting Iranian denial: Tehran "under no circumstances" will negotiate nuclear issue as part of an end to the war.
• A flurry of (the somewhat typically-timed) Monday opener headlines have pushed oil prices lower, erasing weekend gains, including Al Arabia reporting that Iran is ready to accept a long-term nuclear freeze, instead of full dismantling.
• Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14-points through Pakistan, amid reports that the US has offered to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the interim negotiating period.

//--> //--> US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Yes 26% · No 75%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump: Asked by Gulf States to Hold Off Attacking Iran

Here we go again: Trump says he's holding off a planned attack which was supposedly "scheduled" for Tuesday, at the request of Gulf leaders, including Qatar, KSA, and UAE. "A deal will be made," he says...

Oil drops on the headlines, amid the ongoing roulette...

Iranian President Somewhat Defensive

A message from Iran's president, perhaps aimed at those arguing that trying to engage the US has run its course. Words aimed at IRGC and domestic population, it appears...

"Dialogue does not mean surrender..." will "safeguard the interests and honor of Iran."

Trump 'Not Open' to Any Concessions for Tehran: NYP Interview

Another repetition of the weeks-long stale-mated reality: ...so Trump is 'not open' to any concessions, but Iran deal happening 'soon' - we are yet again told, as the Iranians themselves haven't appeared to budge on anything.

President Trump told The NY Post on Monday he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks. Highlights:

• And in an ominous foreshadowing, Trump said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
• In the brief phone interview The Post, Trump seemingly shut the door to Iran’s Sunday offer for a diplomatic talks.
• Asked about his Friday remark that he’d be willing to accept a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, Trump interjected: “I’m not open to anything right now.”
• The president declined to get into any detail. “I can’t really talk to you about it. Too many things are happening,” he said.
• “I can tell you they want to make a deal more than ever, because they know we’re—what’s going to be happening soon,” Trump said.
• Questioned about regional source claims that Iran is attempting to “wait out” Washington on both the nuclear issue and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said he “hadn’t heard that.”

US Denies Tasnim Report It Agreed to Lift Iran Oil Sanctions

And the denials keep rolling in. First via CNBC:

A U.S. official tells me the Iranian state media report that the U.S. has agreed to lift oil sanctions while talks are ongoing is false. https://t.co/gOcyBKDAxC

— Megan Cassella (@mmcassella) May 18, 2026

...as the US side does not seem very confidently in control of the situation - quite the opposite:

Senior U.S. official: "It's time for the Iranians to throw bit of candy out. We need some real, sturdy, and granular conversation [regarding the nuclear program]. If that's not gonna happen, we will have a conversation through bombs, which will be a shame" https://t.co/qTNrY1fgoN

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 18, 2026

Just like that, back to square zero once again we go... and back to headline roulette. 

US PLANS NEW RUSSIAN OIL WAIVER AS IRAN WAR CRUNCHES SUPPLIES

US DENIES REPORT IT AGREED TO LIFT IRAN OIL SANCTIONS: CNBC

Steady climb in oil continues on the denials...

Trump Monday Morning Truth Social 'Threat'

Like clockwork, the start of the week threat from Trump on TS... same as the old threats:

And bearish news via Axios:

Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios.

Oil Quickly Rebounding on Iranian Denial

In a far too familiar pattern, just before US market open on Monday, a slew of optimistic Iran headlines saw oil erase weekend gains, which mostly came through Saudi Arabia's state-funded Al Arabiya, as well as Reuters... only to be followed by Iranian officials rejecting the substance of these reports, putting things firmly back at square one. 

Tasnim has newly cited Iranian government sources who seek to make clear that "Iran under no circumstances" will engage in new nuclear negotiations for an end to the war. Contradicting the earlier morning reports, it still sees negotiations to find peace in the war with the US as separate from the nuclear file. "Fundamental differences between the Iranian and American texts still remain", Tasnim reports, citing a source.

"Despite some changes in the new American text, fundamental differences stemming from the Americans' exaggeration and lack of realism remain," Tasnim writes, citing the Iranian source. According to more of the statements per state media:

• "Iran will not abandon its firm and principled positions on ending the war and realizing the rights of the Iranian people".
• "Iran's frozen assets must be returned to the Iranian people in a transparent and definitive manner, and paper promises are of no use".
• "Despite some promises, there is disagreement about the return of the frozen funds".
• "Iran's determination regarding the necessity of paying compensation by the Americans for the military aggression against Iran is very serious".
• "The Americans are far from Iran's demands regarding its amount and some other issues."
• "the Americans are still trying to tie the negotiations to end the war to the nuclear issue, which is against logic and Iran will not agree to it. The Americans must understand that Iran will in no way agree to an end to the war in return for nuclear commitments".
• "Iran has not and does not have any intention of building nuclear weapons, and this claim is just an excuse and deception by the Americans. This issue has also been emphasized in the new text".

Oil reacted as expected to this official 'denial' of the prior optimism - quickly rebounding, also as Trump is said to be "losing patience" with the progress of talks. A US source has told Al Jazeera Iran has "days not weeks" to show progress.

The optimism and then denials happened within a span of a couple hours...

And here is the walkback, as IRGC must have just gotten the memo:

DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE NEW AMERICAN TEXT, FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES STEMMING FROM THE AMERICANS' EXAGGERATION AND LACK OF REALISM REMAIN https://t.co/3KT4OeLhCq

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 18, 2026

Tasnim: Another Iranian Ship Breaks Through US Blockade Line

Iranian state media is claiming that a Iranian oil tanker under US sanctions that was off the coast of India two weeks ago has now docked at Kharg Island, having broken through the US naval blockade. Tasnim reports that "the LPG tanker passed through the US blockade line undetected and entered Iranian waters." 

The Pentagon has been asserting an essentially airtight blockade on 'illicit' ships going to or from Iranian ports. CENTCOM has said it has turned around at least 75 vessels, while Iranian media has since the blockade's start touted several ships making it through.

Long-Term Nuclear Freeze on Table

Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya early Monday has issued a bombshell if true (but still very much not officially confirmed), reporting that Iran has agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling. The outlet also reports that Iran has withdrawn its demand for compensation, instead demanding economic concessions. However, this could be highly dubious, given over the past several days Tehran has not shown willingness to back down from this demand of compensation.

It also seems Russia's offer to take and temporarily hold Iran's enriched uranium is being taken seriously. Here are the alleged "leaks" of the working draft peace document:

• Working on a condition transfer of enriched uranium to Russia instead of the US.
• Seeking multiple international guarantees for any agreement.
• Wants Pakistan and Oman to have a 'role' in any 'clash' in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Seeking a political formation that allows Iran to save face.
• Separate the maritime route from nuclear issues.

Oil pushes lower on the additional headlines, following initial reports that the US would lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the negotiating period...

As a reminder from days ago: "US President Donald Trump said Friday that he would accept a 20-year suspension of the uranium enrichment at the heart of Iran’s rogue nuclear program if Tehran gave a “real” guarantee, in an apparent shift from his previous demand that Iran permanently halt its program and his pledge to ensure Iran can never attain nuclear weapons."

US Lifting Oil Sanctions During Negotiation Period: Tasnim

Tasnim news agency says Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14 points through Pakistan. State sources say the focus by Iranian leadership is to end the war and build trust. This as Pakistan’s interior minister has extended his Tehran visit for a third day.

In this context a source close to the negotiating team reportedly told Tasnim that, unlike their previous texts, Washington agreed in the new text to lift Iran's oil sanctions during the negotiation period. This is a first big sign of progress since the White House reportedly sent five 'counter' conditions to Tehran, which only offered a partial sanctions reduction.

Per more from Tasnim: 

• Waiving sanctions means temporarily lifting sanctions.

• Iran insists that lifting all sanctions on Iran should be part of the US's commitments.

• However, the US has proposed suspending OFAC until a final understanding is reached.

The headline was enough to push oil down, erasing the gains over the weekend...

Another blurb via TASS, offering a little more in terms of likely conflicting interpretations and expectations:

According to the source, unlike in its previous proposals, the US has agreed in its new offer to suspend oil sanctions against Iran for the duration of the talks. The source noted that Tehran, for its part, insists on the lifting of all sanctions, while Washington is only ready to waive US Treasury sanctions until a final agreement is reached.

More Latest Developments

According to more of the latest headlines via Al Jazeera:

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says talks between Iran and the US are continuing through Pakistan.
• He added that Iranian and Omani technical teams met in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for ensuring safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Kuwait and Qatar have condemned drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, which officials say originated from Iraqi airspace.
• The Israeli army says it struck more than 30 targets in southern Lebanon, which it claims were used by Hezbollah to attack Israeli forces.
• The Israeli navy has seized vessels that were part of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, arresting 100 activists on board.

And more developments via Newsquawk:

• US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
• US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
• Pakistan shared revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources. The course added that "we don't have much time", adding that both countries "keep changing their goalposts".
• Western sources say the new Iranian proposal includes a commitment of unclear value not to produce nuclear weapons but no mention of uranium or Hormuz, according to Journalist Segal.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. The spokesperson added that they have made great efforts for safe movement and protection of the Strait of Hormuz and are in constant contact with Oman to develop a mechanism. On Uranium, Baghaei said Tehran does not need any party to recognize its right to uranium enrichment and will not discuss during negotiations with the US.
• Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
• Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
• Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
• Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas's armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
• UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
• Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.

* * *

While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out "what's next" - while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports. Currently the sides are merely trying to get back to the table.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 16:20

Graham Calls For 'Short But Forceful' New Strikes On Iran, Complains Waiting For 'Status Quo' Talks Looks Weak

At a moment the US-Iran ceasefire is officially on life support, and with the world's most critical energy chokepoint remaining blocked while the American consumer is paying the price at the pump, beltway hawks are calling for renewed major military action to 'solve' the standoff.

Foremost among them, Senator Lindsey Graham, hit the Sunday news circuit to urge President Trump to rip up the current playbook and resume US major military strikes on Tehran. According to Graham, the current diplomatic paralysis and the shuttered Strait of Hormuz are only fueling Iran's strategic position while inflicting severe economic pain domestically.

He has perhaps picked up on the bad optics of Trump's constant barrage of Truth Social posts which often seem written in an exasperated and impatience style.

"I think the status quo is hurting us all," Graham told NBC News' "Meet the Press" - as he made the case for using military pressure to get the Iranians to comply with Washington demands on their nuclear program and other issues.

The well-known hawk from South Carolina correctly observed: "The longer the [Strait of Hormuz] is closed, the more we try to pursue a deal that never happens, the stronger Iran gets." However, this reflects one of those 'one more escalation step and the problem will be fixed' approaches among the NeoCons. The 'just one more thing' usually perpetuates the quagmire. 

He turned to urging the president to "weaken them further" given that "there's more targets to be had" - which is pretty much also the Israeli line.

Graham further said there are no signs that after the prior 38-day bombing campaign that Iran's leadership has abandoned what he called the Islamic Republic's supposed goal "to terrorize the world, destroy Israel, come after us."

"Gas prices will come down when you put Iran in a box," Graham added. 

Another interesting moment in the interview came when the GOP senator seemed in agreement with Trump on not caring about Americans' finances in comparison with the Iran nuclear question:

Trump drew criticism last week for saying he was not weighing Americans' finances in the talks, comments that stirred Republican anxiety ahead of the midterm elections. Graham dismissed that concern.

"It's worth losing my job," he told Welker. "If I had to give my job up to make sure Iran would never have a nuclear weapon, I would do it."

Iran is meanwhile still not backing down, after last Friday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear that Tehran has "no trust" in Washington given its "contradictory messages".

Graham calling for a "short but forceful" new military escalation against Iran...

I have every confidence that President Trump fully understands the situation with Iran and will not continue to tolerate a refusal to negotiate in good faith along with Iran’s defiant aggression in the Strait of Hormuz and throughout the region.

It is abundantly clear to me…

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 18, 2026

He reiterated that Washington needs to get serious, while it is US officials saying Iran must show willingness to make compromise. At this point it seems Washington is the more desperate to get a deal done, but each side is waiting out the other.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 15:45

Watch $134 Million Go Up In Smoke As Navy Jets Collide At Air Show

As if Pentagon losses in the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran weren't already sapping them enough already, American taxpayers were losers again on Sunday when two U.S. Navy EA18-G Growlers blew up in spectacular fashion after colliding at an air show at Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho. Four crew members ejected and were medically evaluated and said to be in stable condition.

EA18-G Growlers are used to jam and suppress enemy radar and other electronics (USAF Photo)

The aircraft were performing a maneuver for the audience at the Gunfighter Skies Air Show when they made contact and then appeared to be locked together. In an instant, the four crew members ejected. As their parachutes successfully deployed, the two jets -- valued at a combined $134 million -- fell to the ground together and exploded, generating a massive cloud of smoke, and necessitating a careful descent by the crew members who had to avoid landing in the flaming wreckage. Made by Boeing, the EA18-G Growler is an F/A-18 Super Hornet variant that serves as something of an "electronic bodyguard" for other aircraft, by jamming, deceiving or suppressing enemy radar and electronic systems. 

BREAKING: Two U.S. Navy jets collided mid-air and exploded during the Gunfighter Skies Air Show at Mountain Home Air Force Base. pic.twitter.com/R66ADWM2TY

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 17, 2026

Jeff Guzzetti, an aviation safety expert, said the unusual collision in which the two jets were seemingly stuck together may have bought the crew members a few more critical moments. “It’s really striking to see,” Guzzetti told Associated Press. “It looks like they struck each other in a very unique fashion to cause them to remain intact and kind of stick to each other and that very well could have saved them.” Some social media users pointed to a wind advisory that had been issued. 

While the Air Force will investigate the crash, Guzzetti's first impression was that it was not a mechanical failure: "It appears to be a pilot issue to me...Rendezvousing with another airplane in formation flight is challenging, and it has to be done just right to prevent exactly this kind of thing.” The jets landed in an empty patch of land far from the audience. The crash started a brush fire that torched 25 acres, and forced the remainder of the show to be cancelled.  It was the first edition of the Gunfighter Skies Air Show since 2018, when a hang glider pilot was killed in a crash. 

The four aviators were able to land outside the inferno

The two jets are part of the Electronic Attack Squadron 129 at Whidbey Island, Washington. They become the third and fourth Growlers from Whidbey Island to be destroyed in just the past 19 months. In October 2024, both female crew members died when they crashed near Mount Rainer. There were no fatalities in a February 2025 crash in San Diego Bay, in which the two male pilots ejected before their jet met this end: 

New footage released shows an EA-18G Growler jet crashing into the San Diego Bay this morning.

The two pilots ejected before the jet crashed into the water.

The crash caused an 80 foot plume of water and mud, according to a witness.

According to the San Diego Union Tribune,… pic.twitter.com/jGJDYehTYZ

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 13, 2025

Another aviation expert, Safety Operating Systems CEO John Cox, told AP that the maneuvers used to dazzle air-show crowds leave little room for error. "Air show flying is demanding. It has very little tolerance,” Cox said. “The people who do it are very good and it’s a small margin for error. I’m glad everybody was able to get out.” It's enough to make you wonder whether such demonstrations are a reasonable use of taxpayers' assets -- to say nothing of the risk to the crew members. 

A clearer view of the mid-air collision from a different angle. pic.twitter.com/wpxVQ8wJyp

— Arslan Akbar (@iarslanakbar) May 18, 2026

The Pentagon's loss of the two 67-million-dollar jets comes amid a very costly US war on Iran waged in tandem with Israel. On April 10, The War Zone reported that US forces had seen at least 39 aircraft destroyed at that point, including 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones, four F-15E Strike Eagles, two MC-130J Commando II's, an E-3G Sentry, two KC-135 Stratotankers, a CH-47F Chinook, two MH-6M Little Bird helicopters and an A-10C Warthog. 

Last week, the Pentagon owned up to $29 billion in costs of the war to date, though there are plenty of skeptics who think it's likely far higher -- along with some insiders. In late April, unnamed US officials who were familiar with the DOD's internal numbers said it was closer to $50 billion. That's just the Pentagon's tab -- it doesn't begin to account for the cost being imposed on American families and businesses via rising outlays for fuel, food and seemingly everything else. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 15:05

Saylor's Strategy Scoops Up Another $2B Bitcoin, Holdings Reach 843,738 BTC

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, made another massive BTC acquisition last week as the crypto asset hovered around $80,000.

Strategy acquired 24,869 Bitcoin (BTC) for $2.01 billion between May 11 and 17, according Monday's 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Source: SEC

The purchases were made at an average price of $80,985 per BTC, raising Strategy’s cost basis to $75,700.

The company now holds 843,738 BTC, acquired for about $63.87 billion. At the time of publication, the holdings were valued at roughly $65.3 billion, according to CoinGecko.

STRC sales account for 97% of the entire purchase

Strategy funded nearly all of its latest Bitcoin purchase through sales of its STRC perpetual preferred stock, which accounted for about 97% of total proceeds.

According to the SEC filing, Strategy raised roughly $1.95 billion from the sale of about 19.5 million STRC shares.

In comparison, Strategy’s Class A common stock (MSTR) contributed a smaller share of funding, generating about $83.7 million in net proceeds from the sale of 430,344 shares.

Source: SEC

The outcome was broadly in line with expectations from STRC Live, which reported heavy STRC activity during the week, including a record trading day of 15.1 million shares, with estimated purchases of around 15,466 BTC.

The structure mirrors previous large bitcoin buys this year, including a 34,164 BTC purchase, Strategy’s third-largest on record, which was also largely financed through preferred securities rather than common equity.

Strategy co-founder Saylor previously signaled that the company would add to its Bitcoin holdings by posting a chart showing Strategy’s purchase history with 109 Bitcoin acquisition events since 2020.

Its 843,738 BTC now far outpaces BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, which holds around 817,000 BTC on behalf of its clients.

The purchases came a week after Saylor raised the possibility of selling Bitcoin during Strategy’s recent earnings call, framing it as a way to better protect the asset’s long-term value.

He said that sticking too rigidly to a “never sell” Bitcoin approach could, over time, work against the very asset the company is built to accumulate and hold.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 14:50

Senate Parliamentarian Rejects White House Ballroom Funding In Reconciliation Bill

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The Senate’s nonpartisan referee has rejected a bid by Republicans to fund $1 billion for the White House ballroom expansion and other White House security upgrades.

According to Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, the $1 billion proposal breaks the rules of the reconciliation process. As parliamentarian, MacDonough’s go-ahead is traditionally required to approve individual items passed under the partisan process.

Republicans are seeking to use the reconciliation process—which is not subject to the filibuster—to pass $72 billion in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection, which has been blocked by Democrats in the wake of fatal shootings of U.S. citizens by immigration agents. The GOP bill would fund the agencies through 2029, the end of President Donald Trump’s second term.

Trump has long pushed for the addition of a major ballroom to the East Wing of the White House, particularly in the wake of an alleged assassination attempt while attending an event away from the executive mansion.

The Secret Service had requested the money after the incident at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner last month.

Republicans had pursued including this funding in an immigration enforcement funding package.

According to Democrats, MacDonough’s ruling holds that funding for a project as large as the proposed White House expansion is too broad to be included in the filibuster-proof bill.

It’s unclear which, if any, segments of the GOP proposal can be included in the final funding bill.

The parliamentarian left the bulk of the bill’s immigration language intact, barring some minor provisions such as the one providing funding for Customs and Border Protection to hire, train, and pay agents. Republicans have indicated that these sections can be revised and retained in the legislation.

A model of the White House and proposed ballroom (R) is displayed during a ballroom fundraising dinner with President Donald Trump in the East Room of the White House on Oct. 15, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Technically, Republicans can ignore MacDonough’s rulings, which are ultimately considered advisory; however, respect for the parliamentarian’s authority is so deeply embedded in the upper chamber’s culture that this rarely happens.

Ignoring or overriding a ruling on a budget reconciliation bill would set a precedent that could deeply weaken the filibuster, an eventuality that members of both parties have long wished to avoid.

In 2021, after the Senate parliamentarian rejected a bid by Democrats to include a $15 minimum wage in a reconciliation package, some Democrats called for the ruling to be overturned; however, these calls were ultimately rejected.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) speaks to members of the press in Washington on April 14, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

A spokesman for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) wrote in a post on X that “none of this is abnormal” during the complicated budget process that Republicans are using to try to pass the immigration enforcement and White House security money on a partisan basis.

“Redraft. Refine. Resubmit,” Wrasse said in the post.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) framed the ruling as a win for Democrats.

“Republicans tried to make taxpayers foot the bill for Trump’s billion-dollar ballroom. Senate Democrats fought back — and blew up their first attempt,” Schumer wrote in a May 17 post on X.

“Americans don’t want a ballroom. They don’t need a ballroom. And they sure as hell should not be forced to pay for one,” Schumer added, vowing that Democrats would continue to seek to block funding for the White House expansion.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 14:15

Judge Dismisses Musk's OpenAI Lawsuit After Jury Reaches Verdict

Update: Musk to appeal

*  *  * 

A nine-person federal jury has sided with OpenAI, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and Microsoft, determining that Elon Musk filed his high-profile lawsuit too late under the statute of limitations. The verdict effectively ends Musk’s claims that OpenAI abandoned its founding nonprofit mission to benefit humanity.

The jury unanimously concluded that Musk knew or should have known about OpenAI’s shift toward a for-profit model and major Microsoft partnerships years earlier - potentially as far back as 2019–2021, making his August 2024 filing untimely. U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in turn accepted the advisory jury’s finding on this threshold issue and dismissed the case. 

Musk, a co-founder who contributed roughly $38–44 million in OpenAI’s early days, alleged that the company betrayed its original charitable trust by pursuing massive profits and commercial deals, particularly with Microsoft. He sought up to $150 billion in damages or “ill-gotten gains,” the removal of Altman and Brockman from leadership, and a restructuring to restore the nonprofit focus on safe, humanity-benefiting AI.

OpenAI countered that Musk was fully aware of the company’s evolving plans (including for-profit elements he himself had once advocated), waited until after launching his competing xAI venture in 2023, and was motivated by competitive rivalry rather than genuine concern for the mission. They described the suit as “sour grapes.”

Developing...

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 13:38

Judge Tosses Key Evidence In Luigi Mangione Case Over Warrantless Backpack Search

A judge just handed Luigi Mangione some big wins in his high-profile murder case. On Monday, New York Supreme Court Justice Gregory Carro issued a mixed ruling on evidence seized during the suspect’s dramatic arrest at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s. The decision represents a partial victory for the defense on constitutional grounds while delivering a significant boost to prosecutors by preserving the most damning pieces of physical evidence linking Mangione to the assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.

Mangione, 28, appeared in court for the hearing, dressed sharply as he has throughout proceedings. He has pleaded not guilty to second-degree murder and other charges in the Dec. 4, 2024, killing that shocked the nation and ignited fierce public debate over corporate greed in the American healthcare system.

The Arrest and the Evidence at Stake

The ruling stems from Mangione’s arrest on Dec. 9, 2024, in Altoona, Pennsylvania - roughly 280 miles from the Manhattan crime scene. Police responded to a tip after Mangione was recognized while eating breakfast. Officers approached him, and what followed became the focal point of lengthy suppression hearings held late last year.

During the initial encounter at the McDonald’s, officers conducted a warrantless search of Mangione’s backpack in a public setting, visible to restaurant employees and patrons. They discovered a loaded gun magazine wrapped in underwear and other items. The search was paused, and Mangione was taken to the Altoona police station, where a more formal inventory search occurred.

Justice Carro ruled that the initial McDonald’s search was improper - an unconstitutional warrantless intrusion because the backpack was not within Mangione’s immediate control or reach at the time. As a result, several items recovered during that phase are now suppressed and inadmissible in the state trial.

The Ditched Evidence Includes:

• Loaded handgun magazine
• Cellphone
• Passport
• Wallet
• Computer chip
• Certain initial statements made by Mangione to officers at the scene

However, the judge found the subsequent search at the police station valid, allowing prosecutors to use critical items recovered there.

Admissible Key Evidence:

• The alleged murder weapon: A 3D-printed “ghost gun” with a silencer, which ballistics reportedly match to shell casings found at the crime scene.
• A red notebook containing handwritten notes expressing deep frustration with the health insurance industry—often described in media as a “manifesto.”
• USB drive and related items from the station search.

This split decision mirrors similar outcomes in Mangione’s separate federal case and underscores the complexities of Fourth Amendment jurisprudence in high-stakes arrests.

The Crime That Captivated America

To understand the ruling’s weight, one must revisit the events of December 2024. On the morning of Dec. 4, Brian Thompson, 50, a father of two and CEO of UnitedHealthcare, was gunned down in cold blood outside the New York Hilton Midtown. He was heading to an investors’ conference when a masked assailant approached from behind and fired multiple shots. Thompson was struck in the back and leg; he died shortly after.

The killer fled on a bicycle, leaving behind shell casings engraved with the words “delay,” “deny,” and “depose” - phrases widely interpreted as a pointed critique of insurance industry practices that deny claims and delay care. Surveillance video, fingerprints, DNA, and other forensic links quickly pointed investigators toward Mangione, a 26-year-old University of Pennsylvania graduate from a well-to-do Maryland family with a background in engineering.

Mangione’s arrest five days later, with a fake ID and a backpack full of incriminating items, ended a intense manhunt. His Ivy League education, handsome appearance, and apparent grievances against corporate America turned him into an unlikely folk hero for some. Protests, “Free Luigi” chants, and online memes have accompanied the case from the start, reflecting broader societal anger over healthcare costs, claim denials, and corporate profiteering.

Legal Strategy and Implications

For the defense, led by prominent attorneys, the suppression motion was a cornerstone of their strategy. By challenging the backpack search, they hoped to dismantle much of the prosecution’s physical case. While they secured wins on peripheral items, the admission of the gun and notebook is a heavy blow. The notebook, in particular, could allow prosecutors to argue motive and premeditation before a jury.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office hailed the ruling as preserving justice for a “premeditated, targeted” killing. Bragg has emphasized that additional evidence - beyond the backpack - ties Mangione to the scene, including video footage, ballistics, and witness identifications.

Legal experts describe the outcome as a classic “partial win” scenario. Defense attorneys may appeal the admissible evidence or challenge statements under Miranda rules (the judge also addressed Huntley issues regarding voluntariness of statements). However, with the weapon and writings intact, the state’s case remains formidable.

The state trial is scheduled to begin September 8, 2026, in Manhattan Criminal Court. A separate federal case, charging stalking and other counts, carries potential life sentences but no death penalty following an earlier federal ruling. Mangione remains detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 13:30

Russian Drone Hits Chinese Ship In Black Sea, Less Than 24-Hours Before Xi-Putin Summit

Just 24 hours before Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are set to meet for their planned summit in Beijing, soon on the heels of Trump's visit, and a geopolitical wrench may have just been thrown into the works.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian forces have attacked a Chinese ship heading toward a Ukrainian port - a provocative move that threatens to seriously anger Beijing at the worst possible diplomatic moment.

via Ukraine Navy

Early Monday morning, a Russian drone reportedly struck the KSL Deyang, a vessel flying under the Marshall Islands flag, just off the coast of Ukraine, Reuters also confirms.

The ship was reportedly empty at the time while en route to Ukraine's Pivdennyi port in the Odesa region to load up on iron ore concentrate.

A fire was observed on board, but it was quickly brought under control and extinguished, with the vessel escaping severe damage. 

The Ukrainian government is alleging this wasn't some kind of accidental fog-of-war blunder, with President Zelensky immediately calling out Moscow:

“Drones struck Odesa ... and one of the UAVs hit a vessel owned by China. The Russians could not have been unaware of what vessel was at sea,” Zelensky said.

A Ukrainian navy spokesman told AFP that none of the crew members, all Chinese nationals, were injured. He added that the vessel continued on its journey.

“The ship was entering for loading. After it was hit at night by a Shahed, the crew coped with the consequences on their own. Fortunately, no one was injured, and the vessel continued on its way to its port of destination,” navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.

The incident went down just after on Sunday Xi and Putin had just exchanged "congratulatory letters" to set the stage for Putin's upcoming arrival in Beijing. 

The China-owned vessel wasn't the only ship attacked within that span of time. According to The Independent:

Russia attacked a Panama-flagged civilian vessel heading to Ukraine's Chornomorsk port in the southern Odesa region on the Black Sea early on Monday, the regional governor said.

It is one of several ships destined for Ukrainian ports that have been struck by Russian forces in the past day.

The vessel was damaged in the attack, which caused a fire, Governor Oleh Kiper said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that no one had been injured in the incident and that the crew had extinguished the fire. The vessel has continued on its way, the governor added.

TradeWinds is also suggesting a third ship was struck, but few details have been given. Black Sea transit continues to be a dangerous prospect, also with naval mines long being a feature of the 4+ year long war.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 12:00

DoJ Establishes "Anti-Weaponization" Fund After Trump Drops $10 Billion Lawsuit Against IRS

Update (1130ET): The DOJ announces that as a part of the settlement agreement in President Donald Trump v. the IRS, the Attorney General established “The Anti-Weaponization Fund” to provide a systematic process to hear and redress claims of others who suffered weaponization and lawfare.

“The machinery of government should never be weaponized against any American, and it is this Department’s intention to make right the wrongs that were previously done while ensuring this never happens again,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “As part of this settlement, we are setting up a lawful process for victims of lawfare and weaponization to be heard and seek redress.”

“The use of government power to target individuals or entities for improper and unlawful political, personal, or ideological reasons should not be tolerated by any Administration,” said Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter. 

Bloomberg reports that the fund will receive $1.776 billion and will come from the judgment fund, which is a perpetual appropriation allowing DOJ to settle and pay cases.

The fund will have the power to issue formal apologies and monetary relief owed to claimants.

The Fund will consist of a Commission of five members appointed by the Attorney General. One Member will be chosen in consultation with congressional leadership. The President can remove any member, but a replacement must be chosen the same way as the replaced member was selected.

*  *  *

As Tom Ozimek detailed earlier via The Epoch Times, President Trump’s attorneys on Monday filed a court notice voluntarily dismissing his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS and the U.S. Treasury Department, in a case that accused the agencies of failing to prevent a former contractor from leaking Trump’s tax returns to the media.

No reason was stated in the May 18 motion, which asks the court to dismiss the case with prejudice, meaning Trump and the other plaintiffs cannot bring the same claims again in the future. A court filing in April indicated that talks were underway to settle the case, with the parties stating at the time that discussions were taking place “productively to avoid protracted ligitation.”

Monday’s filing said the IRS and Treasury Department had neither filed an answer nor moved for summary judgment, allowing the plaintiffs to dismiss the action unilaterally without requiring court approval or government consent.

Trump, along with two ​of his sons and the Trump ⁠family business, sued the IRS ​and the Treasury Department in January, accusing both agencies of failing to take mandatory precautions to prevent former IRS contractor Charles “Chaz” Littlejohn from illegally obtaining access to their tax records and disclosing that information to The New York Times and ProPublica.

The lawsuit alleged that Littlejohn had “staff-like access” to confidential tax return information and exploited weaknesses in IRS safeguards to obtain and leak the records between 2019 and 2020.

Lawsuit Details

The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, sought at least $10 billion in damages and accused the IRS and THE Treasury of violating federal privacy laws governing taxpayer information.

Trump brought the suit in his personal capacity, while Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and the Trump Organization were also named as plaintiffs.

Littlejohn, who at the time was employed by defense contractor Booz Allen Hamilton, was accused of having improperly accessed and disclosed tax information related to Trump and affiliated entities, including business holdings.

The plaintiffs claimed Littlejohn’s actions caused “reputational and financial harm, public embarrassment, unfairly tarnished their business reputations, portrayed them in a false light, and negatively affected President Trump, and the other plaintiffs’ public standing.”

The lawsuit argued that IRS and Treasury safeguards were so inadequate that the agency took roughly 3 years to detect the breach.

“Defendants had a duty to safeguard and protect Plaintiffs’ confidential tax returns and related tax return information from such unauthorized inspection and public disclosure,” the complaint alleged, pointing to the need for the agencies to have in place appropriate technical, employee screening, and monitoring systems to prevent Littlejohn’s actions.

“Defendants failed to take such mandatory precautions.”

Littlejohn pleaded guilty in October 2023 to one count of unauthorized disclosure of tax return information.

Prosecutors said he used broad search parameters to conceal his activities, uploaded stolen data to a private website to avoid IRS monitoring systems, and stored records on personal devices before providing them to media outlets.

In January 2024, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes sentenced Littlejohn to five years in prison, the maximum sentence permitted under the statute. Reyes described the breach as the “biggest heist” in IRS history.

“It cannot be open season on our elected officials,” Reyes said, noting that Littlejohn purposefully sought his job at least in part to obtain and leak tax information.

Before Monday’s voluntary dismissal, the case had appeared to be moving toward a possible resolution in recent weeks.

In an April 17 filing, attorneys for Trump and the Justice Department jointly requested a 90-day pause in proceedings to allow settlement negotiations to continue.

The IRS and THE Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the dismissal filing.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 11:40

Cuban Foreign Minister Says US Is Building 'Fraudulent Case' For Military Action

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez on May 17 said the United States is building a “fraudulent case” ​to justify economic war and eventual military intervention against the Caribbean island nation.

Cuban troops participate in a military parade in honor of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro at Revolution Square in Havana on Jan. 2, 2017. Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images

His comments were a direct response to a report by Axios, which cited classified U.S. intelligence reports saying Cuba had obtained more than 300 military drones and had discussed using them against the U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay, which is at the eastern end of the island. The Epoch Times is unable to verify the Axios report.

“Without any legitimate excuse, the #US government is building, day after day, a fraudulent case to justify a ruthless economic war against the Cuban people and eventual military aggression,” Rodriguez said in a post on X. “Specific media outlets are playing along, promoting slander and leaking insinuations from the U.S. government itself.”

The minister did not specifically mention the Axios report about military drones, and he did not formally deny that Cuba possessed such weapons, which have been used by both Russia and Iran, and Tehran’s proxies, in conflicts in recent years.

“Cuba does not threaten or desire war,” Rodriguez added. “It defends peace and is willing and preparing to confront external aggression in exercise of the right to legitimate self-defense recognized by the UN Charter.”

In a May 18 email to The Epoch Times, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said the U.S. president will always act “to protect Americans, our interests and our homeland from any threat.”

“President Trump ... has taken historic action to rid our backyard of uncontrolled migration, dangerous narco trafficking, organized crime, and hostile foreign military presence,” the department said.

“Cuba, a failed Communist state which has long hosted hostile foreign military, intelligence and terror groups, presents a significant threat to our national security that President Trump will not allow to devolve into a greater crisis to the safety and security of Americans.”

In a May 17 post on X, Monroe County Sheriff’s office, which covers the Florida Keys, said, “Monroe County Sheriff Rick Ramsay has not been contacted by any federal or state authorities regarding news reports Sunday of any possible military action taken by Cuba against the U.S. military base in Cuba at Guantanamo Bay using drones.”

The post quoted Ramsay as saying he did not believe there was any reason to be concerned.

“I am confident I will be notified if anything does change and I will alert the public,” Ramsay added.

The Cuban ambassador to the United Nations, Ernesto Soberón, said in a May 17 post on X that the people of Cuba “stand ready to defend their territory, their sovereignty, and their independence.”

“Cuba would never initiate an attack on any country, let alone the United States,” Eva Golinger, an attorney and writer based in New York, said in a May 17 post on X. “They do, however, have the right to self defense under international law, as all countries do, if they are attacked.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has previously said Cuba persecutes and tortures political opponents, provides a safe haven for terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and constitutes an “extraordinary threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy.”

Last week, Cuba said it poses no threat to U.S. national security and that there are no legitimate grounds for it to remain on the list of state sponsors of terrorism.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe and other officials visited Cuba on May 14, at the invitation of the communist regime in Havana. At the time, the U.S. Embassy in Cuba referred The Epoch Times to the White House for comment, which in turn referred it to the CIA. The CIA didn’t respond to an email seeking comment on that meeting.

Fuel Crisis

Cuban Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy said on May 13 that the country has completely run out of diesel and heavy fuel oil, and its power grid has entered a critical state.

O Levy said Cuba had not received any oil imports since December, until Russia sent 100,000 tons (about 700,000 barrels) of crude last month.

Trump said on Truth Social last week that Cuba was asking for help and that the two countries were going to talk.

Newly erected holding tents for detained migrants at the U.S. Naval Station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on Feb. 21, 2025. U.S. Navy/AFN Guantanamo Bay Public Affairs via Reuters

The regime in Cuba was founded in 1959 after rebels led by Fidel Castro ousted U.S.-backed leader Fulgencio Batista. Under Castro’s leadership, the regime moved toward Marxism-Leninism and consolidated one-party communist rule in the years that followed. Cuba was closely allied with the Soviet Union until the bloc’s collapse in the early 1990s.

Cuba was heavily reliant on Venezuelan oil, supplied by former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s socialist regime, but that supply was stopped after he was ousted in January and replaced by interim leader Delcy Rodríguez.

Mexico also stopped sending oil, under pressure from the United States.

A watch tower at Camp X-Ray, which was the first detention facility to hold what the U.S. government described as "enemy combatants," at the U.S. Naval Station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on June 27, 2013. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The U.S. State Department said in a May 13 post on X that it “is publicly restating the United States’ generous offer to provide additional direct humanitarian assistance to the Cuban people.”

“The Cuban regime must decide whether to accept our offer or deny life-saving help for the Cuban people, who desperately need it,” the State Department said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 11:20

"Scale Matters": NextEra, Dominion To Merge In Utility Megadeal Aimed At Grid Expansion To Power AI Boom

As power demand surges on the back of data-center buildouts, with hyperscalers expected to unleash about $700 billion in capex this year to expand AI infrastructure and maintain an edge over China in the AI compute race, NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy are moving to scale up. The utilities agreed to a $67 billion all-stock merger that would create the world's largest regulated electric utility network.

Dominion shareholders will receive .8138 NextEra shares for each Dominion share, leaving NextEra investors with about 74.5% of the combined company and Dominion holders with 25.5%. The merged utility would be more than 80% regulated, serve 10 million customer accounts, and control about 110 gigawatts of generation capacity across the U.S. East Coast, from Florida to a cluster of data centers in Northern Virginia.

NextEra positioned the merger with Dominion as a way to quickly scale power grids along the East Coast while lowering power bills, as the era of AI data center buildouts only begins to accelerate: 

With growth drivers evenly balanced between regulated and long-term contracted businesses and more than 130 GW of large-load opportunities in its pipeline, the combined company will have a broader opportunity set, more ways to grow and the scale, balance sheet and best-in-class operating, supply chain, construction and technology capabilities to deliver the generation, transmission and grid investments needed to serve customers, support economic growth and cost-effectively meet surging power demand while keeping bills affordable.

"The transaction is structured as a 100% stock-for-stock transaction and is expected to be tax-free to shareholders. The combined company will operate under the NextEra Energy name and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol NEE," NextEra wrote in the press release.

NextEra CEO John Ketchum said the merger is a "historic moment" and comes as "electricity demand is rising faster than it has in decades."

Ketchum continued:

We are bringing NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy together because scale matters more than ever— not for the sake of size, but because scale translates into capital and operating efficiencies. It enables us to buy, build, finance and operate more efficiently, which translates into more affordable electricity for our customers in the long run.

The way the merger is framed appears aimed at federal regulators, who have seen growing resistance to data centers at the local level amid soaring power bills. It is worth noting that on some grids, especially in the Mid-Atlantic, backfiring green policies have collided with data-center buildouts and surging demand, sending power prices sky-high.

This earnings season was an eye-opener, as we noted that hyperscalers will deploy $700 billion in capex this year to support AI infrastructure.

In markets, shares of Dominion Energy soared 15%, while shares of NextEra remained flat.

Evercore ISI analyst Nicholas Amicucci noted that the merger will "likely face a significant amount of regulatory scrutiny."

The way the merger is framed, as a means of scaling grids and supporting data-center buildouts while pitching affordable household power prices, is music to the ears of federal regulators.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 10:45

"Shockingly Bad" Chinese Econ Data Stuns Wall Street, Sparks Hard Landing Concerns

Confirming our Sunday preview, overnight China reported growth data which slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines, retail sales missing sales and growing at the weakest rate in 4 years while industrial production rose at the slowest pace in three years, calling into question Beijing's reluctance to add stimulus to the economy as a global energy crisis hits factories and consumers across the world.

China's Monday data dump of official data on Monday painted a picture of an economy where booming exports no longer offset deteriorating consumption at home, prompting analysts at banks including Nomura and SocGen to urge bolder measures in support of growth.

As shown in the chart below, fixed-asset investment unexpectedly shrank 1.6% in the first four months of 2026 from a year earlier, while industrial production grew just 4.1% last month, the weakest in almost three years. Retail sales also missed forecasts and rose just 0.2% in April, the worst reading since they contracted in December 2022, when China reopened from Covid.

What is shocking is that it is common knowledge that Beijing traditionally massages its economic data to present itself in the rosiest possible light: the fact that it allowed data this ugly would suggest that the picture on the ground is much uglier. 

Goldman's Delta One head Rich Privorotsky captured this sentiment well, writing this morning that "overnight news from China showed economic data materially below expectations. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all missed meaningfully. It’s hard to tell whether this reflects genuine demand destruction but perhaps it helps explain how the oil market has managed to balance despite ongoing supply concerns. I genuinely can’t remember a period when Chinese data, which tends to be heavily massaged, missed by anything close to this magnitude. Negative read through for consumption related categories."

Remarkably, not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted as pessimistic a reading for industry, retail sales and investment. The disappointing performance of the world’s second-biggest economy last month is a reminder of its domestic vulnerabilities, after a global artificial intelligence investment boom sent trade soaring.

The breadth of the acute slowdown in April has put the prospect of a more aggressive stimulus back on the agenda after China stood out in its resilience to the fallout from the Iran war. The government pulled back on fiscal spending in March, while the central bank has steered clear of even hinting at any further loosening in policy, amid ample market liquidity and weak demand for credit. 

Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, described the deterioration of economic indicators as “a normal fluctuation from month to month.” But he also highlighted challenges such as a persistent imbalance between supply and demand as well as a complex global environment.

Investment plunged by around 8% in April from a year earlier, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics, returning to a similar pace of decline seen in the second half of 2025. Manufacturing and infrastructure investment both weakened, while private investment plummeted

In response to the dismal data, Nomura economists wrote that authorities “might need to step up policy support for stabilizing growth,” adding that “Beijing has no room for complacency.”

A rising number of economists has been forecasting the People’s Bank of China won’t lower interest rates this year after the oil shock pushed up inflation expectations, though many still expect a cut to lenders’ reserve requirement ratio. The PBOC last lowered the policy rate and the RRR at the peak of the trade tensions with the US a year ago. 

Authorities are still likely to take a patient approach and avoid rushing out response to just one month of data. The Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo will convene in July to review economic growth and policies, making it the next potential window for any adjustment in stimulus. 

“The stance still seems to be to play cautiously,” said Jing Liu, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Our base case is no extra stimulus for the economy for the time being.”

Even though many manufacturers are struggling to cope with higher raw material costs, overall exports soared as Chinese tech products found willing buyers abroad. Greater demand for green energy products is also benefiting China. But a sustained weakening of investment and consumption at home could still bring risks to Beijing’s goal of achieving 4.5% to 5% artificial growth this year.

The April data suggest gross domestic product may expand as little as 4.1% on-year in the second quarter, which could prompt incremental policy easing, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. For now, Goldman is maintaining its forecast for a GDP gain of 4.7% in April-June, compared with 5% in the first three months of the year.

The data “should keep PBOC easing – RRR and even rate cuts – firmly on the table, while fiscal top-up may come later,” SocGen's head China economist Wei Yao wrote in a note.

The plunging manufacturing data comes at a time of continued dismal credit demand and heavy rainfall in southern China, which could be behind the sharp fall in capital spending, Goldman economist Lisheng Wang said in a note (available to pro subs here).

Statistical adjustment is another potential factor. Many economists believe authorities took measures to correct over-reporting of the data in late 2025. Such a change may have exaggerated the volatility of the figures recently, as the on-year contraction in steel and cement output narrowed in April, according to Goldman Sachs. 

The consumer economy has meanwhile continued to struggle as households spent less on items as varied as autos and furniture. Car sales plunged 15% in April from a year earlier, the worst contraction since mid-2022, when the country was under Covid restrictions. The government has scaled back subsidies for electric vehicle purchases this year, while the Iran oil shock hurt sales of gasoline-powered cars. 

Purchases of home appliances and furniture — products that used to be buoyed by government subsidies — declined at a double-digit pace. Gold, silver and jewelry sales plummeted 21% — a huge reversal from earlier this year and 2025, when soaring prices for precious metals led to a speculative investment frenzy.

The industrial sector is also getting more lopsided as export-driven sectors lead the growth while industries that relied on domestic sales lagged. The production of electronics, lifted by soaring global demand for AI chips, expanded 15.6% in April, the fastest pace in two years.

The auto industry also expanded briskly at 9.2%, as overseas EV sales took off. Meanwhile, commodities linked to real estate and construction — such as cement, glass and steel — recorded declines, while crude oil processing volume fell, which ING Bank economist Lynn Song attributed to the war’s impact

Soaring chip prices may partly explain why factory output weakened even as exports surged.  While industrial production is reported after an adjustment made for inflation, sales abroad are calculated in nominal terms, making it hard to separate movements in prices versus volumes. Surging costs of chips and electronics accounted for about half of April’s 14% headline export growth, according to Nomura. 

“China still looks like a two-speed economy: strong in strategic manufacturing and exports, but weak where household confidence matters most,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “The concern is not just that activity missed, but that the weakness is broadening across the domestic side of the economy.”

There is one silver lining when it comes to the Chinese economy: exports are expected to remain strong after climbing 15% in the first four months from a year ago. Stabilizing trade ties with the US, reinforced by President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, further bolster the outlook.

But a turnaround is nowhere in sight for domestic consumption. Chinese households net repaid the most loans in April since comparable data going back to 2010.

“Policy space remains ample,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings. “The April data are less a sign of deterioration than a trigger for more proactive easing — which should help anchor growth and support a gradual recovery into the second half of the year.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 10:30

Key Events This Week: Nvidia Earnings, FOMC Minutes And Global PMIs

Looking at the week ahead, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, with a market capitalisation now of $5.46tn, will be the main event. In economics, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday, along with inflation data from Canada tomorrow, the UK on Wednesday, and Japan on Friday. From central banks, the highlight will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Those flash PMIs will be important, as they’re one of the first indicators on how the global economy has performed this month, so will be scrutinized for any signs of how the war in Iran is impacting activity and prices.

The US calendar is relatively light, with the NAHB housing market index today expected to remain unchanged at a cyclically low 34, followed by Tuesday’s pending home sales, where a modest +1.0% increase is anticipated (from +1.5% previously). Attention will then turn to Thursday’s April housing activity data, where housing starts are expected to ease to an annualized pace of 1.425mn (from 1.502mn), while permits are projected to tick higher to 1.375mn (from 1.363mn). All estimates are according to our economists.

Beyond housing, Thursday is the key day for macro releases. The weekly initial jobless claims are expected to edge slightly lower to 209k (from 211k). The same day will also bring the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, where our economists expect a pullback to +21.0 (from +26.7), alongside the flash PMIs. In the US, manufacturing is expected to soften marginally to 53.7 (from 54.5), while services are seen ticking up to 51.5 (from 51.0).

In contrast to consumer sentiment—which will see an updated reading of the Michigan survey on Friday (expected at 48.2 versus 49.8 previously)—business surveys have generally remained more resilient despite the energy shock. That said, some indicators have shown rising input costs and lengthening delivery times, developments that could signal renewed inflationary pressure building beneath the surface.

Turning to central bank communications, the Fed speaker slate is relatively limited but still notable. Governor Waller is scheduled to participate in an ECB policy panel tomorrow, alongside comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker (voter) on the outlook. On Wednesday, Vice Chair Barr will discuss consumer financial health metrics, while the Fed will also publish the minutes from the April FOMC meeting. Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) will follow on Thursday with remarks on the economy, before Governor Waller rounds out the week with a further appearance on Friday.

In Europe, the highlights will include the UK labour market report tomorrow and inflation data on Wednesday. DB's UK economist expects headline CPI to slow to 2.98% YoY and core CPI to fall to 2.61% YoY. More detail and forecasts are in the full inflation spotlight note here. The UK will also release the GfK May consumer confidence index and April retail sales on Friday. Other notable European releases include Eurozone consumer confidence on Thursday and Germany’s Ifo survey on Friday.

In Asia, Japan faces a busy week, with key data including Q1 GDP tomorrow and April nationwide CPI on Friday. Our Chief Japan economist expects positive real growth of an annualised 1.3% QoQ for the GDP report and sees core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, holding at 1.8% YoY, alongside a retreat in core-core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, to 2.2% (from 2.4% in March). 

Finally, beyond Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, results are also due from major US retailers, including Walmart, Home Depot, and TJX.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day calendar of the week's main events:

Monday May 18

• Data: US May New York Fed services business activity, NAHB housing market index, March total net TIC flows, China April retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Italy March trade balance
• Central banks: BoE's Greene and Mann speak
• Earnings: Baidu, Ryanair Holdings
• Other: G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors (through May 19)

Tuesday May 19

• Data: US April pending home sales, UK March average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, April jobless claims change, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilisation, Eurozone March trade balance, Canada April CPI, March building permits
• Central banks: Fed's Waller speaks, ECB's Lane and Makhlouf speak, BoE's Breeden speaks
• Earnings: Home Depot, Amer Sports

Wednesday May 20

• Data: UK April CPI, RPI, PPI, March house price index, Germany April PPI, Denmark Q1 GDP
• Central banks: FOMC minutes, Fed's Paulson and Barr speak, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates
• Earnings: NVIDIA, Analog Devices, TJX, Lowe's, Intuit, Target, Experian, Marks & Spencer
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bonds ($16bn)

Thursday May 21

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and Eurozone May preliminary PMIs, US May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, April housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims, Japan April trade balance, March core machine orders, Italy March current account balance, ECB March current account, Eurozone March construction output, Q1 labour costs, May consumer confidence, Australia April labour force survey
• Central banks: ECB's Villeroy speaks, BoJ's Koeda speaks, BoE's Taylor speaks
• Earnings: Walmart, Deere, Generali, Ross Stores, Take-Two, BT, Zoom, Workday
• Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS (reopening, $19bn)

Friday May 22

• Data: US May Kansas City Fed services activity, UK May GfK consumer confidence, April retail sales, public finances, Japan April national CPI, Germany June GfK consumer confidence, May Ifo survey, France May business confidence, Canada March retail sales, April industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB's Vujcic, Kazimir, Muller and Lane speak
• Earnings: Cie Financiere Richemont, Lenovo

Taking a look at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Waller and Barr and Presidents Paulson and Barkin. The minutes to the FOMC’s April meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, May 18 

• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, May (consensus 34, last 34)

Tuesday, May 19 

• 08:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will participate in a panel at the European Central Bank. Moderated Q&A is expected. On April 17th, Waller cautioned that higher oil prices as a result of the Iran war could lead to a “more lasting increase in inflation.” Waller noted that “if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” that could require “maintaining the policy rate at the current target range.”
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, April (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.5%)
• 07:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak about the economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Markets Conference. Text and audience Q&A are expected. On March 27th, Paulson said that there was “a little bit more of a risk that the transmission of higher fuel prices, higher fertilizer prices, into inflation expectations is faster and maybe a little bit more durable.” That said, Paulson also noted that “for [all these shocks] to turn into sustained inflation, you need a mechanism that keeps that going” and that “on the wage-setting side, it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of impetus that would make that happen now.”

Wednesday, May 20 

• 09:15 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver a speech on consumer financial health at a conference in Atlanta, Georgia. Text is expected. On May 5th, Barr said that “the longer [the Iran war] goes on, the greater the risk that the inflation we’re seeing in these prices becomes embedded in the economy, and then we have to worry more.” Barr noted that “we’re in a situation right now where we really need to wait and see to understand what direction [the conflict] is going.”
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, April 28-29 meeting: At its April meeting, the FOMC left the fed funds rate and the policy guidance in its statement unchanged. Presidents Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari dissented against the implicit easing bias in the standing policy guidance, while Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 25bp cut. Chair Powell said that the number of FOMC participants who could support moving to balanced guidance has increased since March and that the center of the FOMC “is moving toward a more neutral” outlook for future rate changes, but most felt making a change now was unnecessary. We pushed back our expectations for Fed cuts by one quarter to December and March. With energy cost passthrough likely to keep year-over-year core PCE inflation closer to 3% than 2% all year, we think that a combination of lower monthly inflation prints after the oil shock fades and further labor market softening will likely be needed for the FOMC to cut this year. We still expect that bar to be met but now expect it to take a bit longer.

Thursday, May 21 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 16 (GS 210k, consensus 210k, last 211k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 9 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,782k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS 20.0, consensus 18.0, last 26.7)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS -3.5%, consensus -5.5%, last +10.8%) 
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 53.7, last 54.5); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 51.0)
• 12:20 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech at the Urban Land Institute Triangle in Raleigh, North Carolina. Text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, May 22 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May final (GS 48.2, consensus 48.3, last 48.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May final (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%)
• 10:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks; Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a lecture on the economic outlook at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management in Germany. Text and moderated Q&A are expected.

Source: Goldman, DB

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 09:25

"Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance In 18 Months," Says Chamath Palihapitiya

In an interview with Fox News' Bret Baier that aired Friday, President Trump said that he doesn't want "to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war" over Taiwan.

"I'm not looking to have somebody to go independent and, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war," Trump told Baier. "I'm not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down."

Taiwan has been a major point of friction between Washington and Beijing. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC News that the issue was not a key topic during Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The initial White House readout of the summit also did not mention Taiwan, home to the world's most advanced semiconductor production.

Taiwan is strategically important for three main reasons:

• It is indispensable to global semiconductor production.

• It sits at the center of the Western Pacific security architecture.

• It remains a major flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

In other words, Taiwan is critically important to the U.S. because it is not only a semiconductor production supernode, but also a geopolitical fortress against China and a potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

However, Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital and part of the All-In podcast, pointed out that Taiwan could be on track to lose one of its most strategic advantages in the next 18 months.

Palihapitiya continued:

We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today.

Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us.

And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed.

I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically.

When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today.

Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.

Chamath: Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance in 18 Months@chamath:

“ We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today.

Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what… pic.twitter.com/XL2UqRIQyi

— The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod) May 17, 2026

Palihapitiya's take on the rise of U.S. chip fabs, many of which are based in Arizona and could soon turn the state into the new Taiwan, drew backlash on X, notably from geopolitical risk analyst Ian Bremmer, who said, "This is Trump's perspective: the only thing that matters about Taiwan is the chips. Very different from the view of U.S. allies in the region: Japan, South Korea, and Australia."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 07:54

"Please Work Remote": NYC Braces For Commuter Chaos With Ongoing LIRR Strike

Welcome to day three of the Long Island Rail Road strike, which is set to cause commuter chaos this morning in the New York City area, as more than 3,500 workers across five unions walked off the job Saturday after contract talks with the MTA collapsed.

Negotiations between the MTA and unions resumed Sunday and are set to continue Monday morning.

LIRR service remains suspended due to the strike. Please work from home if you can. If you must travel today, travel alternatives include:

• Limited shuttle bus service to/from six Long Island locations to Queens subway stations, for both the AM and PM rush hour.
• NICE Bus…

— LIRR (@LIRR) May 18, 2026

The MTA has urged riders to work remotely today and is deploying up to 275 free shuttle buses, though that capacity only covers a tiny fraction of the LIRR's nearly 300,000 weekday riders.

It seems that Socialist NYC Mayor Mandami finally got his promise of free buses, but at the cost of a strike and commuter chaos.

The disruption could also snarl travel to Long Island beach destinations over Memorial Day weekend, including the Hamptons.

Some employers, including JPMorgan and Citigroup, have advised affected workers to consider remote work this week.

The National Mediation Board, a federal agency that oversees labor disputes, summoned both sides late Sunday evening to continue negotiations, but no resolution was found. Talks are expected later today.

A spokesman for the International Brotherhood of Teamsters stated that their wage proposal was reasonable and that two federal review panels had sided with them.

"We remain ready to negotiate a fair agreement at any time and get back to work on behalf of Long Island commuters," the statement said.

The union wrote on X, "After more than three years with no raises, LIRR's union workers, including 500 Teamsters locomotive engineers, will not make any more sacrifices to cover for the MTA's mismanagement."

Rail Teamsters from the @BLET and their union coalition remain on strike at the MTA-owned Long Island Rail Road.

After more than three years with no raises, LIRR’s union workers, including 500 Teamsters locomotive engineers, will not make any more sacrifices to cover for the… pic.twitter.com/acb6jGY6Fj

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) May 17, 2026

What an absolute mess for commuters this morning.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 07:45