The Big Picture

10 Sunday Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

The World’s Leading Deepfake Expert No Longer Trusts His Own Eyes: NYT on Hany Farid losing confidence in unaided visual judgment as generative video improves. The implications for evidence, journalism, and trust are large. In the age of A.I., Hany Farid is struggling to prove what’s real before the internet decides for itself. (New York Times)

The Billion-Dollar Peptides Gold Rush: As black-market drugs go mainstream and legalization is within reach, entrepreneurs, investors and healthcare players are racing to cash in. (Bloomberg free)

Copycats: How big a problem is plagiarism? Perhaps most complicated of all is the plagiarizing of ideas. On some rare occasions two people—one thinks here of Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace on evolution—will come upon the same or a highly similar idea at roughly the same time. Others are only too pleased to take up the ideas of someone else and claim them as their own. (Commentary)

Triple-Digit Club: A Wave of Stocks Have Seen Huge Gains in 2026: The AI infrastructure boom has driven huge rallies in many of these stocks. Morningstar on the surprisingly broad set of 100%+ YTD names in 2026. The market isn’t quite as narrow as the index would suggest. (Morningstar)

Kremlin bots respond with disinfo after former U.S. national intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard publishes report on “biolabs” in Ukraine: The Russian bot network Matryoshka has devoted a series of fake videos and posts to the topic of “American biolabs” in Ukraine, AntiBot4Navalny, a project that analyzes disinformation campaigns. The Insider tracks the predictable Russian-bot amplification of Gabbard’s biolabs report. The operation is so routine it barely registers as news. (The Insider)

The Apotheosis of Donald Trump: On the president’s 80th birthday, it became clear that he has entered his decline. It took 250 years and 45 presidents, but cage fighting has finally come to the White House. Donald Trump’s 80th birthday was in many ways the apotheosis of the Trump administration—the Ultimate Fighting Championship held a seven-fight card on the South Lawn of the White House, with the president and members of his family in attendance. The Atlantic uses the UFC card as the lens for the Trump-as-spectacle moment. The argument is sharper than the framing suggests. (The Atlantic) see also The Most Surprising Miscalculation of Trump’s Second Term: Politico Magazine on the structural miscalculation underneath the past 18 months: the assumption that nationalist policies are politically self-stabilizing. Brexit’s example keeps not being learned. (Politico)

What lies behind the new boom in Colombian cocaine: FT on record Colombian coca production and the supply-chain mechanics underneath it. The demand side stays unspoken, as always. Leftwing rebels have been replaced by gangsters selling ever more drugs to Europe and Asia. (Financial Times).

How the Right Captured State Power as a Weapon in Its Anti-Government Crusade: Republicans made state power a core part of conservative ideology. Democrats can take it back. TPM on the contradiction at the heart of the modern right: capture the state to dismantle it. Long read, well-argued. (Talking Points Memo)

Apocalypse Early Warning System: In the event of an imminent nuclear apocalypse, we suspect that many people who have access to private jets will immediately take to the skies and escape city centers. This site tracks this indicator in realtime. The current emergency level is reported on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being an indicator of a likely imminent apocalypse. Kyle McDonald’s running tracker of civilizational risk indicators — climate, financial stress, geopolitical tail risks — in one place. Bracing and useful. (Apocalypse Early Warning System)

7 unexpected takeaways from the newest research on cannabis and brain effects: Whether it’s used in adolescence, midlife or older age may make a big difference. WaPo’s run-through of the most recent cannabis neuroscience. Some genuine surprises; most of them not great for heavy users. (Washington Post)

Video of the day: Inside Jeffrey Epstein’s Network of Power

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business this week with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, over the past four decades, Baupost has grown to $22 billion, with annual net returns of over 20%. The legendary investor is known for his patient, risk-averse, and contrarian approach to finding deeply discounted securities across equities, distressed debt, and real estate.  He is the author of Margin of Safety (1991) and the editor of the 7th edition of Security Analysis (2023).

 

Understanding Trump’s Iran Deal: A Quick Guide   Source: Molly Ploofkin

 

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

Calvin and Hobbes and the Price of Integrity: How Bill Watterson Stuck to His Guns — and Vanished: Watterson’s way of speaking about these things occasionally veers into the self-important register of grievance, the eternal complaint of someone for whom things-as-they-are never satisfy because things-as-they-were always seem better. But there’s no denying the conviction with which he fought the fight, even before he had the name-brand authority he’d later earn, even back when it really looked like he was going to lose. And he came very close to losing some of his biggest battles with the syndicate. (The Republic of Letters)

Ken Griffin’s Billions and Billions The hedge-fund titan is an unabashed big spender, from pièds-a-terre to politics. “When I was in college, I wanted to be in private equity,” he said. He named one of the titans of that field: “Henry Kravis—that was the mission.” I pressed him to cite someone who had influenced him in the world of hedge funds—the investment firms that emerged in the nineteen-fifties with trading strategies designed to offer wealthy clients exclusivity, higher returns, and lower risks. Griffin dodged the question with a feeble joke. Early in his career, he said, whenever he told someone that he worked at a hedge fund, the response “was, literally, ‘Do you use shrubs or bushes?’ ” (New Yorker)

Is Lloyd’s of London the world’s oldest podshop? No. But it’s sort of a bit like one: The 94 syndicates for which we have data in 2025 are not exactly individual firms. In fact, they have no legal identity whatsoever. Instead, they are bits of cordoned-off capital, which are used as conduits by 54 different managing agents to both compete and collaborate to write Lloyd’s of London insurance policies on behalf of underlying members. (Financial Times free)

Leave It to Beaver: Everything is bigger at Buc-ee’s. Clearly Buc-ee’s is more than just a large gas station. It has come to symbolize Texas, the world-conquering juggernaut. As Steve Bannon said recently, Texas is “where the future is being built.” Or as Abbott put it in 2024, at the grand opening of the Luling location, “Beaver and Buc-ee’s are now icons across the United States. They spread Texas hospitality, great barbecue, and Beaver Nuggets wherever they go.” A lifelong Texan, I came to realize that I needed to see the future for myself. I needed to eat some Beaver Nuggets. (The Baffler)

How trust funds made the modern world In progress we trust: In fact, trusts are everywhere. In the parts of the world which use law derived from English law, they are as important a legal concept as contracts or negligence. Nearly all shares in Britain are traded on the basis of trusts. Every home jointly owned by a couple involves a trust. They play just as important a role in America, Australia, Canada, Ireland, Hong Kong and Singapore, whose legal systems are also derived from English law. For much of their history, trusts have been an instrument of social and economic progress. They allowed married women to own property when the rest of the law prohibited it. England’s rich tradition of clubs and societies owes its origins to the institution of the trust, which enabled much greater freedom of association in the early modern and industrial period than in other European countries. The London Stock Exchange and the insurance marketplace Lloyd’s were both originally trusts. (Benedict’s Substack)

Is spontaneity a luxury good? On line culture, algorithmic curation, and the death of wandering. On how schedule density, family logistics, and overcommitment have made spur-of-the-moment plans a class marker. Useful read whether you have kids or not. (Your Brain on Money)

Has AI Already Killed How-To Nonfiction?: Tim Ferriss looks at his own sales data and the broader category trends for how-to nonfiction. The early evidence is hard to argue with; Sales Trends, My Personal Data, and What It Might Mean for the Future (Tim Ferriss)

Samurai City: Works in Progress on how Edo became the largest city on Earth by 1700 — a samurai-administered megalopolis with surprisingly modern logistics. Pure delight for urbanism nerds. For three hundred years, Japan enjoyed enviable stability and peace. All it took was locking up its warlike samurai elite in the world’s least efficient city. (Works In Progress)

“You Killed the Car” A Ferrari and a distinctive Highland Park home combined for an iconic scene in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. This adapted excerpt from a new book details how it all went (crashing) down. (Chicago Mag)

Cracking stories, Gromit: Wallace’s long-suffering canine companion to tell all in memoir: After ‘bottling everything up for a long time’ the faithful pet, who has remained silent for many years, will spill the beans on the pair’s ‘pet hates and fur-vent passions’ Gromit is getting a memoir. The Guardian plays it straight, which is half the joke. (The Guardian)

Video of the dayHow Ashton Kutcher Outsmarted Silicon Valley

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business this week with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, over the past four decades, Baupost has grown to $22 billion, with annual net returns of over 20%. The legendary investor is known for his patient, risk-averse, and contrarian approach to finding deeply discounted securities across equities, distressed debt, and real estate.  He is the author of Margin of Safety (1991) and the editor of the 7th edition of Security Analysis (2023).

 

 

Source: Ritholtz Wealth Management

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MiB: Seth Klarman, The Baupost Group



 

 

This week, I speak with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group, a Boston-based investment manager with a multi-strategy approach. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, Baupost has grown over the past four decades to $22 billion in assets, with annual net returns of over ~20%. The legendary investor is known for his patient, risk-averse, and contrarian approach to finding deeply discounted securities across equities, distressed debt, and real estate.

Klarman is a value investing legend who comes from the school of Graham and Buffett. Known as the “Oracle of Boston,” he is the author of Margin of Safety (1991) and the editor of the 7th edition of Security Analysis (2023). We discuss Seth’s start as a 25-year-old and his 40-year journey running Baupost. He explains his approach to risk, IPOs, and sectors, along with his sports passions, including a smaller ownership in the Boston Red Sox, horse racing, and his feelings about the Boston Celtics’ 2026 season.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here next week.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Carl Richards, a financial advisor who is also the creator of the Sketch Guy column, which ran weekly in New York Times for a decade. He hosts Behavior Gap Radio (1,300+ episodes) He co-hosts “Kitces & Carl — Real Talk for Real Financial Advisors” with Michael Kitces.” Richards latest book is Your Money: Reimagining Wealth in 101 Simple Sketches.”

 

 

 

 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

Authored Books

 

 

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10 Friday Juneteenth Reads

3-Day weekend!  Kick it off with our morning reads:

Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Anything. I Bet Against My Own Husband: GQ on a woman who hedged her own husband’s career outcomes on Polymarket. The piece is funnier and darker than the premise suggests. You can wager on war, elections, awards shows, reality TV, scientific progress, and—in the case of writer Carrie Sun—your own spouse. If you want to play, you have to wonder: Are you smarter than an inside trader? (GQ)

Gold Fails the Safe Haven Test Again: Friendly reminder: Gold isn’t a good hedge for inflation or uncertainty. Fisher’s commentary team looks at gold’s behavior during the latest risk-off and finds the safe-haven thesis wanting again. The data is the data; the narrative is the narrative. (Fisher Investments)

10 things Elon Musk can — but probably won’t — do with $1 trillion: He is the world’s first trillionaire. Here’s the good that money could do.(Vox)

The Hacker Sent by Anthropic to Calm the Government’s Nerves About AI Safety: Nicholas Carlini recently rang the alarm about the dangers of AI—and now he’s part of a team arguing for the latest models to be released. (Wall Street Journal)

Here’s how the government is using AI to speed up the planning system: These two new systems could be genuinely revolutionary. James O’Malley on the UK government’s quiet AI-assisted overhaul of planning permissions. Promising case study in low-glamour but high-impact AI deployment. (James O’Malley)

24 Simple Secrets to a Healthier Life: Happiness is not a factory setting. It’s a skill you learn. The brain and the mind are trainable. There are evidence-based ways to cultivate calm, focus and patience. The NYT Well team’s annual experts-share-their-habits interactive. Easy to dismiss, harder to ignore. (New York Timessee also 12 Breathtaking Natural Wonders in the U.S. You Need to See in Your Lifetime: From iconic parks to lesser-known marvels, these destinations showcase America’s most awe-inspiring landscapes. A perfectly serviceable bucket-list piece. Save for the next trip-planning weekend. From iconic parks to lesser-known marvels, these destinations showcase America’s most awe-inspiring landscapes. (Travel & Leisure)

How Does Our Taste in Movies Change With Age?: How aging shapes our movie-watching habits, genre preferences, and relationship with the past. A nice empirical look at the lifecycle of cinematic preferences. The data confirms what your dad tells you about new movies — sort of. (Stat Significant)

Chili Peppers of the World: Cultivars, Species, and Heat: An obsessively organized chili pepper taxonomy. Pure rabbit-hole pleasure. A visual field guide to the chili peppers of the world, from wild origins to cultivated forms, illustrated with 176 hand-drawn peppers. (Notes From The Road)

Iran Has Humiliated Trump: Officials in Tehran got the United States to sign a document that even Americans described as degrading, mortifying, a total capitulation. The Atlantic’s continuing case that the Iran result is a strategic loss dressed up as deal-making. The argument keeps gaining evidence. (The Atlantic) see also Trump in Defeat: The Atlantic on the rare president-in-the-process-of-losing piece. Less schadenfreude than diagnosis. The president went to war triumphant and will likely leave greatly weakened. (The Atlantic free) see also The Oxymoron of Trump and “Intelligence”: On the gap between intelligence-community findings and the public spin around the Iran campaign. The institutional damage is the lasting cost. We spend $100-billion-a-year on US intelligence that Donald Trump can’t be bothered to read. (Doomsday Scenario)

The Star of Nike’s Knicks Ad Isn’t Rushing to Fix His Tooth: There were a lot of smiling faces on TV right after the New York Knicks’ momentous NBA championship-clinching victory over the San Antonio Spurs on June 13, but none were as instantly iconic as Chiki Uno’s gap-toothed grin. Uno, a 31-year-old professional model from the Bronx, starred in a Nike advertisement directed by Josh Safdie that aired on TV during the first postgame commercial break. Set to Billy Joel’s “New York State of Mind,” the ad follows a man in a Knicks jersey (Uno) sprinting and cartwheeling down the streets of New York. After a few blocks of running, he reaches his destination — hordes of Knicks fans celebrating their team’s long-awaited championship — and breathes a deep sigh of relief. The look of elation that creeps over his face is a perfect encapsulation of everything that long-suffering Knicks fans were feeling when the ad aired. Uno immediately became an avatar for the city’s jubilant moment. (Vulture)

Video of the day: Why Jalen Brunson Rejected $100,000,000 Because Of Kobe Bryant

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business this week with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, over the past four decades, Baupost has grown to $22 billion, with annual net returns of over 20%. The legendary investor is known for his patient, risk-averse, and contrarian approach to finding deeply discounted securities across equities, distressed debt, and real estate.  He is the author of Margin of Safety (1991) and the editor of the 7th edition of Security Analysis (2023).

 

Mistaking a Hiring Freeze for a Robot  
Source: Apollo

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At The Money: Deregulation Will Free Your Portfolio



 

 

At The Money: Deregulation Will Free Your Portfolio (June 18, 2026)

The new administration promised deregulation and ending red tape to unleash business and animal spirits. An ETF allows you to deploy capital to take advantage of that theme.

Full transcript below.

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About this week’s guest:

Michael Gayed is Portfolio Manager for Tactical Rotation Management, one of the sub-advisers to the Free Markets ETF, FMKT. He is also the founder of Lead-Lag Media, which houses The Lead-Lag Report and related media properties.

For more info, see:

Personal Bio

Professional website

LinkedIn

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Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

At the Money: Deregulation and the Free Markets ETF with Michael Gayed
TRANSCRIPT
: Deregulation Will Free Your Portfolio

 

Intro:

I’m a bad boy for breakin’ her heart
And I’m free, free fallin’
Yeah I’m free, free fallin’

 

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  Exactly one year ago, the Free Markets ETF launched—ticker symbol FMKT—designed to invest in companies expected to benefit from deregulation and free-market dynamics in the second term of the Trump presidency. I was intrigued by the concept and wondered what it might look like in the second half of this term. To help us unpack all of this, let’s bring in Michael Gayed. He is the portfolio manager for tactical rotation management, one of the sub-advisors to the Free Markets ETF. So Michael, I was intrigued by this concept. What was the original insight behind FMKT? How was deregulation becoming an investible theme that perhaps markets were underpricing?

MICHAEL GAYED:  Yeah, and it’s interesting. So when Trump got elected—I’ve got this large network of advisors that I talk to, 350 advisors that I regularly talk to, which is why my calendar’s always so jammed—and one of the advisors said to me, you know what, it would be a good investment idea, something that focuses on deregulation. And he was kind of saying it off the cuff. I give the guy credit for coming up with the idea. And it’s like, that’s actually an interesting idea. Deregulation arguably makes the time to market faster. It increases margins, it should benefit earnings from a fundamental perspective, it should increase competition. So all that sounds like an interesting thesis.

MICHAEL GAYED:  So I called up three other firms—one, which is the advisor, Tidal Financial Group, and then two other RIAs as sub-advisors, people that I’ve known. I wanted to approach this more from a VC standpoint. My other funds I launched on my own. This one I wanted to actually have partners on, because it’s a very different way from my style of investing, which is more risk-on, risk-off historically. And came up with the idea and said, okay, let’s go after it. Now, when I really was thinking through the idea, it’s like, all right, Trump is making it very clear that he’s going to go from “for every new regulation you want, I want two cut”—it goes from that to “for every new regulation, I want 10 cut.” And he’s actually gone more aggressive on that since he was elected.

MICHAEL GAYED:  So: come up with a fund idea, figure out what sectors, what industries benefit the most from deregulation. And it has to be active, because these executive orders come out and you don’t know what’s going to be deregulated next. So you’ve got to focus in on that as quickly as possible. Now, deregulation is a very interesting buzzword. You hear a lot of people in the media talking about deregulation as a big tailwind for the broader markets. And I do believe that if you look at why the US has outperformed Europe so much—it’s not just because of tech, it’s because we don’t have as much regulation as Europe does. Regulation is a stopping point, a friction that hurts earnings and time to market.

MICHAEL GAYED:  So came up with the idea for Free Markets. It’s an active fund, stock-picking. A lot of the focus is around sectors like industrials, financials, cannabis, nuclear, anything in the aerospace part of the marketplace—not so much tech. Maybe we can touch on that. We believe that tech is probably going to be regulated, and maybe AI in particular will be regulated, especially from a regulatory perspective in our business, the investment advisory business. But out of the gate, we had some pretty strong performance. About a year ago we launched; we had 4,000 traded shares on day one. A lot of interest in that.

MICHAEL GAYED:  We had really strong performance. We were a thousand basis points over the S&P at some point. That ended up being a blessing and a curse, because obviously nothing closes a sale like a chart. People started chasing the performance of FMKT, and then we had a drawdown as we got back to “AI is the only play in town.” And right now we’re kind of meandering, but I do believe that the deregulation theme is here to stay. Even if you get a Democrat as president next go-round, the reality is, industries that have less regulation should at least theoretically outperform.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  So let’s stay with that concept of deregulation. How do you define what sectors benefit from deregulation? And then how do you hone in on what companies within those sectors are going to be the biggest beneficiaries?

MICHAEL GAYED:  So arguably it would be very hard to do either of those outside of using AI—which we actually built out: a whole workflow and AI screening process to figure out exactly that. Which sectors, which industries benefit, which individual companies are mentioning deregulation the most in earnings transcripts. So we’ve got multiple filters that are looking at valuation, that are looking at where SG&A is impacted by regulatory costs. And in some ways you can argue it’s obvious, right? It’s like, think about industry-wise, sector-wise, what has the most regulation. Banks, sure.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  Right, financials, no doubt.

MICHAEL GAYED:  No doubt, right. Especially with Dodd-Frank—and then you’ve got to roll back Basel and all that, which is the deregulation side. Cannabis, right? So you saw Trump obviously trying to get ahead of the Democrats, you can argue, with some of this reclassification on the cannabis side. So we’ve got Tilray in the portfolio. Nuclear, right? Obviously, with all this AI build-out, you’re going to need energy. So you’ve got to make the time to market for getting nuclear plants up shorter, to meet the growing demand of speed of implementation of AI data centers. So it’s all the stuff that are bottlenecks—that’s the way to think about it.

MICHAEL GAYED:  So we do a lot of screening, we do a lot of AI, we look at executive orders when they come out, we determine from the AI output, does this make sense? And then we’re just going granular—which companies, in theory, benefit the most. So a good example of that is Robinhood. Robinhood is kind of at the forefront of financial deregulation, very forward-thinking company. But then on top of that, on the crypto side, they’re big players. So you hit on all areas of the deregulatory focus from the Trump administration, which, again, is not going to go away. It’s hard, once you deregulate something, to re-regulate it—at least that quickly.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  Unless there’s a crisis, it’s almost impossible. FMKT’s mandate says at least 80% of assets go into companies expected to benefit from regulatory shifts. What’s the remaining 20%?

MICHAEL GAYED:  Yeah. So, arguably, it goes to how do you define what benefits from deregulation. But 5% of the portfolio can go into Bitcoin and Ethereum—that’s listed in the prospectus. Now, that was done on purpose—

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  Any crypto, or just those two?

MICHAEL GAYED:  Just those two. And we can go into gold as well. And if you’re talking about what a free market is—which is unencumbered by regulation—those are, almost by definition, a free marketplace, right? When it comes to the crypto space and gold in particular. So we can do a little bit, and we’ve gone into that in the past. Obviously momentum has been weak, so we’ve gotten out of it—part of the active nature of it, trying to avoid these big declines in those positions.

MICHAEL GAYED:  But that’s—from almost any perspective, in order to be considered a theme, you have to have that 80% threshold. So part of it’s ironically a regulatory requirement: to say that if you’re going to be focused on a particular theme, you’ve got to have at least 80% of your portfolio in that. The reality is, every single holding to some extent has some kind of deregulation tie into it. Some of it’s direct, some of it’s more indirect. But there’s always a justification for why we’re positioning in particular names.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  So the fund kind of sits at the intersection of markets and politics. And I’ve long cautioned against allowing partisan politics to influence investing. You are really trying to walk a line where it’s not a political-expression ETF, but rather a policy-driven theme. How do you balance that? How do you keep this from becoming a darling of one side or the other?

MICHAEL GAYED:  Yeah. It’s like, politics goes into policy, policy goes into profits, right? So it’s really more about the profit side, the fundamental aspect of it. We’ve gotten that question before—it’s like, all right, so you end up having a Democrat come in place, and it seems like it’s a Republican fund. I’d argue it’s not, because even under a Democratic regime, there will be some sectors that will be deregulated that the Democrats like—like alternative energy—in which case the holdings change. Because now that’s where the focus on deregulation might be.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  Right. Solar, wind—solar is more a Democrat issue than a Republican issue.

MICHAEL GAYED:  Exactly. And I go back to: well, if that’s the case, then yeah, you’re going to have deregulation there, and then the holdings shift. Energy is a big part of the theme behind FMKT, which obviously makes sense, because Trump is so focused on releasing as much domestic oil as possible and removing frictions there. So it benefits from that. But then it’s just a shift. You want to follow the policy, because following the policy is where profits end up coming from, and policy has winners and losers. And often the winners are things which are favored, which tend to be things which will get to market faster—which is exactly what deregulation is. So I don’t view it as a political play. I think it’s just the nature of the beast: you will have certain parties that will favor certain sectors and certain industries. How do they do it? By either providing funding directly, or by making for less friction for those companies.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  That makes a lot of sense. It also means that trying to come up with some rational benchmark is almost impossible. How do you figure out what your frame of reference is? The S&P 500 doesn’t seem right. What do you use for a benchmark?

MICHAEL GAYED:  Yeah. And it’s interesting. We have to have a benchmark from a regulatory perspective, because that’s how regulators think about these things. For us, it’s more about the entire landscape of the equity universe—is the fund outperforming or not? Now, again, we outperform the S&P strongly. The S&P, to your point, is not really a proper benchmark for a Free Markets type of fund, because the S&P now, I’d argue, is an AI index. I’m sorry, but the S&P 500 is no longer as diversified as people think it is. It is a thematic fund.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  Under large-cap growth.

MICHAEL GAYED:  Large-cap growth is what it is. It’s basically AI. I mean, that’s—

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  It’s AI, it’s semiconductors, it’s software—go down the whole list.

MICHAEL GAYED:  The whole thing, right. Exactly right. So I think anybody that’s looking at FMKT is looking at it from the standpoint that they believe in the thesis. And a lot of small-business owners believe that deregulation is more important than taxes, because that impacts their day-to-day activity and working. And I go back to: finding a benchmark is more a function of your own personal financial requirements. It’s not about, are you beating the S&P? Does this fit your objectives from a risk-return perspective? Does it make the journey from an investment perspective better?

MICHAEL GAYED:  And a lot of the Free Markets positions are parts of the marketplace that the market has not rewarded. There is a value tilt, interestingly enough, when you look at the holdings of FMKT. Sure, there are some of these more speculative positions that we have that you almost have to have a position in, like Archer and Joby. I know your colleague Josh Brown talks about Joby quite a bit, and Archer as well. Those are classic deregulation plays, because of the focus around flying taxis, basically, and deregulation as far as the FAA side goes. But there’s a value tilt. So if there’s an environment that favors value, it’s going to favor Free Markets anyway.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  So let’s talk a little bit about some of the most recent holdings I was able to look up. Some are pretty obvious—you mentioned Robinhood, KeyCorp, Citizens Financial, even Blackstone. Some of them, I had to scratch my head: Palo Alto Networks, ADM, Oracle. The financials are obvious because of the deregulation. Oracle seems more like a political “hey, Larry Ellison is a big buddy of Trump”—his son is in the midst of the whole mayhem with Viacom and all of that. How do you distinguish what’s the beneficiary of deregulation and what’s politically favored? How do you separate those?

MICHAEL GAYED:  Well, to some extent, if you’re politically favored, you’re going to try to put deregulation in place, and the way that looks is in the speed with which government contracts take place. So—

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  I was thinking more along the lines of M&A and antitrust rules.

MICHAEL GAYED:  That as well, for sure. In the case of an Oracle, there’s something called FedRAMP—Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program—which, without getting too deep into it, is a way of getting approvals to get a government contract, to sort of be in a pipeline for an RFP. Last year, the Trump administration did something that basically removed a lot of that friction, so it wouldn’t take as long to apply for a government contract—which directly impacts Oracle. That’s the kind of deregulation which is important, because it’s all about speed to market.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  So let’s talk about Palantir and Archer Daniels—similar situation?

MICHAEL GAYED:  There’s an element of that as well. Again, AI companies tend to not be the strongest deregulation plays, but Palantir does have an aspect of that, because, again, speed to market for them is around government contracts for defense. So it was never a major, major holding in the fund, but it made sense to us to have some kind of exposure to it. And then on the energy front, and Palo Alto—it’s like, anything that’s tied to AI has to be deregulated from a bottleneck perspective, which is energy, electricity, utilities. So there is a reasoning behind data-center permitting and utility usage, and the deregulation that comes from that. I keep going back to this idea that what you own matters a lot less than how much you own of it.

MICHAEL GAYED:  So a large part of the active nature of FMKT is, yes, we’re being thematic on deregulation, but we’re also actively trying to see, is there momentum in this or that deregulation play, to weight that heavier. So a lot of the holdings in the top 10 are not based on how strong the deregulation fit may be. It could be just: there’s a deregulation fit and there’s strong momentum—we want to be there.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  Gotcha. That makes a lot of sense. So we talked about financials, technology—healthcare is another deregulation issue. But I want to ask you about the defense sector and energy. When the war with Iran began, how does that affect how you look at the portfolio, and what is a potential beneficiary of this quicker, more frictionless, deregulatory environment?

MICHAEL GAYED:  Yeah. When the war took place—we meet once a week, me and the other portfolio managers—when the war took place, we said, all right, we’ve got to get some defense companies in here, and then figure out which defense companies benefit the most from deregulation. And they’re kind of in bed with each other, government and defense, obviously. So it’s all about speed. If you’re going to go to war, you’d better have faster speed of bringing things to market. So it hasn’t been a major, major thematic play, but arguably it goes back to: if it’s about government contracts and it’s about speed, then deregulation is about removing the friction to get something to the government’s agencies’ hands to get approved.

MICHAEL GAYED:  It’s interesting—I don’t view Free Markets as a geopolitical play. I view it more as, if you believe that deregulation is how you have more profits, then you’re simply trying to figure out which companies benefit from that the most. And arguably there’s more art than science to that. But it’s not as catalyst-driven as much as it’s more about executive orders that are taking place.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  All right, final question. How do you separate genuine deregulation tailwinds from talking points and narrative? More specifically, how do you distinguish a company that’s talking about receiving regulatory relief from one whose margins or growth rates are actually improving?

MICHAEL GAYED:  Yeah. And that goes back to it’s art versus science. To some extent, there are some very clear cause-and-effects on the deregulation side impacting certain companies. But to your point, a lot of it is going to be analyzing SG&A and fundamental line items, looking at and seeing what CEOs and executives are saying on earnings transcripts. One of the filters is, how many times is deregulation mentioned by various people at companies as a driving factor—because they’re not going to say it unless it’s somewhat true, you would think.

MICHAEL GAYED:  So it is not as clear-cut, which is why, again, it needs to be active. It’s not something you can quantitatively say, this is the highest deregulation score. So a lot of this comes with judgment—which is why it’s good that I have a team, not just me, that’s coming up with these allocations, and just trying to be fast in terms of figuring out where to position. This has been a very odd environment, right? Because Trump’s been talking about deregulation, a lot of people were excited about deregulation, but deregulation has a lag. So any executive orders from last year, you’ll start to maybe see this year showing up in the actual earnings. The market, I think, is still largely undervaluing the impact of deregulation. And if that’s the case, then toward the end of the year you have a re-rating, and then you start seeing it filter through in the bull market, just as a rotation away from this AI-focused passive bid.

BARRY RITHOLTZ:  Really interesting. So to wrap up: if you’re intrigued by the concept of deregulation, of reduction of frictions, of more opportunity for companies to throw off the yoke of big government—I say as a New York left-coaster—you can actually get exposure to that through active ETFs like Free Markets. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

~~~

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10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning train WFH reads:

Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam: FP makes the strategic case that Iran is a worse strategic loss than Vietnam. The comparison will annoy people; the argument is sharper than expected. A war of choice has turned into a strategic disaster for Washington. (Foreign Policy)

10 things Elon Musk can — but probably won’t — do with $1 trillion: Vox’s Future Perfect takes the high road: here’s what a trillion could actually accomplish in EA-style giving terms. Useful framing exercise. (Voxsee also Elon Musk Is a Trillionaire, and the Rest of Us Aren’t: “Musk wants more money, and wants to make SpaceX a problem for the public markets, funded by the public markets, with liquidity provided by the public markets,” Ed Zitron, author of the Where’s Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, told CNET in an email. “He’s essentially dumping his stock onto retail investors who have been misled about AI and Musk’s own business acumen.” (CNET)

Why Most Stocks Aren’t Worth Owning: A small number of stocks drive most of the market’s long-term return. Morningstar revisits the Bessembinder finding that the index returns are entirely concentrated in a handful of names. Pair it with this week’s Triple-Digit Club piece. (Morningstar)

Is Lloyd’s of London the world’s oldest podshop?: FT Alphaville draws the line from 17th-century coffeehouse syndicates to the modern multi-strategy hedge fund. The history is the punchline. (Financial Times)

• How Rivian Is Pulling Off Its $45,000 R2 Electric SUV: Rivian’s make-or-break bet on an affordable EV. The engineering is impressive; the question is whether they can actually build them at that price without bleeding cash. Automaker’s fans love startup’s new R2, but high lease costs show the challenges in the changing electric-vehicle market. (Wall Street Journal).

Hype and Glory: The SpaceX Frenzy Continues: While I don’t know anyone who loves Microsoft or its products, it’s a wildly successful company with a long track record. Last year Microsoft earned $125 billion in profits on $318 billion in revenue. And yet at the end of trading yesterday the stock market placed a higher value on SpaceX, which went public last Friday, as it did on Microsoft, and more than it placed on Amazon, which made $78 billion in profits last year. Half book review, half quiet warning. (Paul Krugman)

The Hacker Sent by Anthropic to Calm the Government’s Nerves About AI Safety: WSJ profile of Nicholas Carlini and Anthropic’s policy-shop charm offensive. The strategy keeps paying off. He recently rang the alarm about the dangers of AI—and now he’s part of a team arguing for the latest models to be released (Wall Street Journal)

The importance of connections: Ways to live a longer, healthier life. Social connection, prosociality, spirituality, optimism, and work—growing evidence suggests these five factors can play an important role in improving the well-being of people and communities.(Harvard T.H. Chan)

An Annotated Analysis of Trump’s Iran Deal: Official agreement envisages trade relief for opening the Strait of Hormuz and limits on Iran’s nuclear program. WSJ goes paragraph-by-paragraph through the leaked draft text, marking concessions in red. The annotations are doing more work than the analysis. (Wall Street Journal) see also Iran is Trump’s Katrina: Noah Smith argues the Iran misadventure punctures the competence brand the way Katrina did Bush’s. The political half-life of disasters is shorter than it used to be, but the framing sticks. (Noahpinion)

How ‘Toy Story’ Won Over Every Generation: As ‘Toy Story 5’ is released, a look at what the series has meant to children—and their parents—over the years. WSJ on why Toy Story keeps cycling through new audiences as Toy Story 5 hits theaters. Pixar’s most patient cash cow. (Wall Street Journal)

Video of the day: The psychology behind why some homes feel good (but most don’t)

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business next week with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, over the past four decades, Baupost has grown to $22 billion, with annual net returns of over 20%. The legendary investor is known for his patient, risk-averse, and contrarian approach to finding deeply discounted securities across equities, distressed debt, and real estate.  He is the author of Margin of Safety (1991) and the editor of the 7th edition of Security Analysis (2023).

 

AI Set to be Largest CapEx Cycle Ever … and Soon Majority Externally Financed

Source: Paul Kedrosky

 

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

A Good Family: Fight Warsh says he wants one, inflation demands it, and the dot plot is how we’d see it. All eyes will be on Kevin Warsh this week as he chairs his first FOMC meeting. However, with PCE inflation on track to top 4% in May, the more pressing question is whether the Fed should raise rates this year. The debate around the FOMC table will be critical, and I worry that Warsh’s efforts to rein in forward guidance could bury it. Obscure a hawkish shift now, and markets get an unwelcome surprise if the Fed actually moves. The uncertainty itself could add to borrowing costs. (Stay-at-Home Macro)

Elon Musk Is Colonizing Earth: On the surface, Starbase resembles other small Texas towns. It is run by a city commission headed by a mayor who was voted into office to serve a one-year term in May 2025. At their monthly meetings, the mayor and two elected commissioners conduct garden-variety municipal business, like voting to approve ordinances and starting the process to hire a police chief. But this American town functions very differently than most. From what I can tell, every conclusion the commission reaches seems to be a foregone conclusion, and every measure it enacts seems to benefit SpaceX. To date, all votes the commission has taken since the city was incorporated have been unanimous. (New York Times)

How to Save Capitalism: Nick Hanauer and Eric Beinhocker have a plan for fixing capitalism: “market humanism.” Capitalism is yet worth saving, argue entrepreneur Nick Hanauer and scholar Eric Beinhocker. But they also argue for a radical rethinking of what capitalism should achieve. Their solution: a philosophy they call “market humanism,” which elevates “human flourishing” over efficiency as goals for the economy. (Washington Monthly)

The abundance illusion: It has worked for every US Administration since Bush Sr. The inventory buffer became the policy. Consume the insurance, call it abundance, and avoid the pain of rebalancing. The hard work Carter asked for — building the physical capacity to never need the buffer — was quietly abandoned. The energy transition gradually became an environmental project, eventually losing much of its security logic and curdling into a polarised fight over green and brown that has lasted a quarter century. (Carlyle)

SpaceX’s Critical Mineral Consumption: SpaceX’s mineral consumption could increase by 10x over the next decade: Based on an analysis of the company’s S-1, marketing materials, and public information. Over the next decade, SpaceX could consume nearly 270k tons of minerals. The majority of SpaceX’s mineral consumption will come from aluminum, with a total of 137k tons used across Falcon models, StarshipV3, and satellites (V2 and V3). The next bucket of materials contains iron, nickel, silicon, titanium, and germanium, which are used in alloys (Fe, Ni, Ti), while Si is used in high-performance ceramics for heat shields and/or seals. Ge is generally used in solar cells and semiconductors. The next tier of minerals (Ga, In, Cu, Cu, Cr, Nb, Co, Mo, Li, Mn, As) is used in a wide variety of applications, from wiring to lithium-ion batteries and high-temperature components. (Gabriel C)

Anthropic’s Safety Superpower: To that end, I can certainly buy the case that Fable/Mythos is in fact more capable when it comes to identifying and exploiting security issues, and that Anthropic’s cautious roll-out was justified. The problem with publicly releasing models, however, is that guardrails can be jailbroken, and apparently that is exactly what happened shortly after the release. (Stratechery)

Serendipity: The Role of Luck in Your Life and Career: But the simple truth is that random events can and do lead to unanticipated outcomes that drive much of what occurs. We underestimate fortune, randomness, and chance at our own peril.  (The Big Picture)

A solar-powered rubbish-eating boat? The vessel chomping plastic waste out of the sea: Guided by floating barriers, the Interceptor has already stopped more than 143,000lbs of rubbish from entering the Pacific from one LA river (The Guardian)

There’s a Name for the People Who Drain You: “Hasslers” make life more difficult—and we can’t escape them. The Atlantic on the psychological literature classifying the high-maintenance people in our lives. Naming them is half the cure. (The Atlantic)

The 2026 World Cup Is an Experiment Like No Other: The Ringer on the Trump-Infantino co-production now underway. The tournament is going to be a stress test for U.S. infrastructure and politics — in roughly equal measure. Why the vibes surrounding this World Cup are so cartoonishly bad—and why the beautiful game might beat all the bullshit. (The Ringer)

Video of the day: How a Short Unwanted Jalen Brunson REVIVED The New York Knicks.

Our Masters in Business interview this week was with Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT Group and Chair of EQT Asia. EQT is a purpose-driven global investment organization with over $310 billion in total assets under management, making it the largest private markets firm headquartered outside the United States.

 

NBA Championships, by Franchise (1947-2026)

Source: Reddit

 

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Transcript: Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT group

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT group, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

 

~~~

 

MASTERS IN BUSINESS

Jean Eric Salata, Chair, EQT Group
Host: Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg Radio

 

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:00:07   I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest today is Jean Eric Salata. He is chair of the EQT Group, the largest alternative manager outside of the US. They manage over $316 billion. Previously, he helped set up the Baring Private Equity Asia group and built it into one of Asia’s premier private equity platforms. With no further ado, Jean Eric Salata, welcome to Bloomberg.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:00:52   Thank you, Barry. It’s great to be here.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:00:54   Great to have you. I’ve been looking forward to this conversation for a while. Before we get to EQT, you have a really interesting background, and I want to dive into that a little bit. You grew up in Chile, you went to the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania to get a bachelor’s in finance and economics. Was investing always the career plan?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:01:20   Well, yes, investing was always the career plan. That’s not how I ended up in Asia, but the idea of going to Wharton and becoming an investor was something I always wanted to do since I was a young boy. I remember reading a lot of biographies when I was a kid—of business people—and being very intrigued by that. I remember having my first paper delivery route when I was like 10 or 11 years old and really enjoying the idea of making money, and then I actually started investing that money as a young kid in the stock market as well, and kind of understanding how that worked. And then when I ended up at Wharton undergraduate, studying finance and management, I got very intrigued with global business outside the US. I come from an international background. My family—we grew up in South America. My grandparents actually came from Eastern Europe and were sort of refugees that ended up in South America. Generation to generation, we’ve been moving around quite a bit, and I always felt like I had quite a different perspective on life and the world than a lot of the people I was at school with. And so I was interested in pursuing that. And, as luck would have it—or fate would have it—I ended up meeting my girlfriend at the time, who’s now my wife, who’s from Hong Kong, and I ended up moving there right after I graduated—a year after I graduated from college—and ended up really building my career in Asia as a result of that.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:02:40   And that was Hong Kong before the handover. So: Chile, Hong Kong. You started at Bain as a consultant, ended up everywhere from Sydney to Boston and then back to Hong Kong. Tell us a little bit about that global experience. How has that changed how you look at the world of investing?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:03:00   Yeah, I’ve always felt a little bit like an outsider in the way I look at things. I’ve never felt like I was exactly part of the community, or the consensus view of things. I was always thinking about things a little bit differently, I guess, given the background. When I was growing up in the US, I was always comparing things in the US to the way things were in Chile and saying, oh, this is different, or that’s different. Then when I moved to Hong Kong, I had the same perspective. I was thinking, wow, there’s a lot that I see happening—all my friends working on Wall Street or in private equity firms in the late eighties, early nineties—that’s not yet happening here in Hong Kong. It felt like there was a gap there. And that always intrigued me and got me motivated and interested in thinking about starting something new that would try to take advantage of that opportunity created by that gap—of what’s already happening in the US eventually coming to Asia. And that’s sort of what led me to eventually leave consulting and get into private equity in the early nineties, which was really very early in an Asian context in the private equity industry. And from there, to start building the business.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:04:13   So you leave Bain. Was the next stop AIG Global Investment? Did you help set up their PE arm, or was that already up and running?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:04:23   No. AIG was essentially an insurance business. Some of your listeners might recall Hank Greenberg, who’s sort of a legend. He didn’t actually start that business, but he was the one who really grew it beyond the founder, C.V. Starr’s, initial starting of the business in Shanghai, of all places. And it became a large global insurance company. In those days in Asia, there really wasn’t a private equity industry, but there were insurance companies like AIG that had long-dated liabilities and they needed to find long-dated assets. So you had the stock market and fixed income and so on, but in the private markets there wasn’t really a fund to invest in per se. So they started making their own investments off their balance sheet, into companies, to match their long-dated liabilities. And so it was really working for AIG, in their internal private equity group, that got me started in the industry.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:05:17   Foundational experience at AIG—that’s really in private equity. That’s a sentence you don’t hear that often.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:05:24   It was early days. It was interesting, because the whole region was really starting to boom. It was the golden period of globalization, with the emergence of not just China, but Southeast Asia—Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Korea. All these markets were starting to really develop and industrialize, and there was a lot of requirement for capital for growth. So we were really growth investors in those days, putting money to work behind companies and helping them to grow.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:05:55   And then you move from investor to operator. As executive vice president, you run finance for Shiu Wing Steel—a giant Hong Kong industrial. What was that experience like?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:06:07   Yeah, that actually happened before I left to do the private equity. So it was Bain, then Shiu Wing, and then AIG. But the Shiu Wing experience is a part of my background that’s a little bit different, because it’s really a family business, very traditionally run, an industrial company. It’s actually my wife’s family business.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:06:30   Oh, really?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:06:30   Yeah. It was a very different experience. I went from—

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:06:35   I went from Bain & Company, you know, sort of business school—

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:06:41   Very buttoned-down.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:06:42   Buttoned-down. Everybody has similar backgrounds, very analytical—to the opposite end of the spectrum, which is a family business. Everybody who’s in management is related to each other, and you’re making decisions based on traditional ways of doing things. But—

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:06:58   This isn’t a small little family dry cleaner. This is—

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:07:02   It’s a big business, yeah.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:07:03   —a giant conglomerate.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:07:04   A sizable business. And it was a good experience for me, because it helped shape, in the very formative years of my career, an appreciation for both sides of the spectrum. On the one hand, you have the need to be analytical, rigorous, to understand global trends—the way you look at things as a business school student. On the other hand, if you’re going to do business in Asia, you have to be a little bit more entrepreneurial. You have to listen to your instinct. You have to be able to develop relationships with people, because ultimately the decision-makers in that part of the world—a lot of them have those sorts of backgrounds. So you need to be able to understand how they think. That was a very valuable experience during my formative years. But I came to the view that I didn’t really want to spend the rest of my career in that sort of setup. So I applied to business school, and I got in—I got into Harvard Business School, actually. I was about to start at Harvard. I literally was there, registered—I’m actually in the picture book—ready to go. And that’s when I got the job offer to come back and work for this private equity division of AIG, which I ultimately decided was really what I wanted to do, rather than go back to school again, having gone to undergraduate for a business degree already. So I decided to defer my business school, go back to work in Asia in private equity. And ultimately I actually never ended up coming back to school.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:08:31   So after AIG, you helped launch a regional Asian private equity program for Baring Private Equity Partners—a UK-based bank, right? Do I have the timeline right? So, 1997. What was the investment landscape in Asia like in the nineties? Was that a very underappreciated set of opportunities, or had people started to sniff out that this area was going to be booming?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:09:00   It was a very volatile period, actually, if you recall what was going on at the time. Two things happened. In 1995—this is just around the time I was joining Baring Private Equity—Nick Leeson, who is a name some of your listeners may recognize and others may not, brought down this 300-year-old bank.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:09:22   Barings Bank. Yeah.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:09:22   He broke the bank, out of Singapore, actually trading Japanese stock futures and covering up his losses, which eventually brought the whole bank down. It was a 300-year-old bank, one of the most prominent firms. So what ended up happening is that the Dutch firm ING took over Barings—famously for one pound—and assumed all their liabilities. This was around the time that I had joined. At the time I remember thinking, oh, this is very unsettling—I don’t know what I’m going to do. I was very worried. I had just decided to leave AIG and join this new company, Baring Private Equity. In hindsight, sitting here today, I can tell you it’s probably one of the best things that ever happened to me—to be able to step into a situation that was going through a lot of change. I think it’s an important lesson in life, actually. There are these times when you go through—there’s serendipity, number one, so luck. There’s also the fact that you’re often thrust into situations you don’t expect. And it boils down to how you end up responding to them. Looking for the best possible outcomes, or the best way out of a situation, can sometimes lead to huge opportunities—which is what happened here. Because that confusion of the takeover by ING of Barings resulted in Barings essentially figuring that they didn’t need to have some of these non-core businesses. So I approached the new Dutch owners and asked them if it was okay if we spun our business out, which we did. It was a very small business—we had $25 million of assets under management, which even in those days was not a lot of money. We were really just getting started, and they agreed. So we ended up establishing an independent small private equity business called Baring Private Equity Asia.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:11:09   So you kept the name.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:11:10   We kept the name.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:11:11   BPEA. There was this tremendous transition from what was essentially a startup to what eventually became a pretty substantial institution. What was that like?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:11:26   Initially, we were starting off—and again, it was 1996, 1997. If you recall, 1997 was actually the Asian financial crisis, as it’s referred to, which was a terrible period of huge currency devaluations—

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:11:45   The ruble was worse the following year, with Long-Term Capital Management, if my memory is right. So the Asian contagion was the Thai baht crisis in ’97.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:11:53   It was the Indonesian high-yield market as well that blew up. People were basically borrowing dollars because it was cheaper to do so, using that money to invest in their businesses in Asia, thinking they could make the spread and capture that—

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:12:09   —as long as the currency stays stable.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:12:11   Which is okay, but then it is until it isn’t, right? And so that’s what happened. That blew out, and it caused a tremendous financial crisis across the whole region. This is in the middle of when we were getting started. I remember we were writing the first PPM—the first private placement memorandum—to go raise capital. And the whole story in ’96 was about growth in Asia, the growth story. Halfway through writing the PPM, we had to change the strategy to become more of a distressed strategy—how we were going to capitalize on the dislocation in Asia to invest in great companies that had bad balance sheets. Which is sort of what we did with that first $25 million that we started with. Because what happened was that ING gave us that seed capital to get going—the $25 million. They were supposed to give us $300 million, but it ended up not coming through. So we started with $25 million.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:13:01   Why is it that there’s such a multiple between the indications of interest and the actual cash?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:13:09   What happened in my case is that there were supposed to be three of us coming across to start the business. There were two very senior guys from AIG, actually, who were poached by Barings to start the business for them in Asia. And they asked me—the young kid who was doing all the number crunching—to join them to do the actual work. I said I’d be delighted to, because it was such an exciting entrepreneurial opportunity. Here I am, a young junior analyst, and I get a chance to be potentially a partner in this startup. So I raised my hand. As we were about to get started, the two senior guys got a counteroffer from Hank Greenberg, who called them up and said, hey, you guys are too important, we want you to stay—here’s all this money and equity to convince you to stay. But he didn’t make me a counteroffer. He just cut me loose. So those guys accepted the counteroffer. I was left there on my own, and I went back to the ING folks and said, here I am, I’m ready to do this. They said, well, you’re a little young and inexperienced, it’s not what we’re expecting—we’re going to slash the capital we commit to this from $300 million to $25 million.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:14:12   Less than 10%.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:14:13   And I said, that’s good enough for me. I’ll take that—that sounds good. So we started with $25 million, and we did five deals of $5 million each. It turned out that because of where we were in the cycle, we were lucky to be able to buy in at good prices. And we bought some interesting businesses—

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:14:30   That sounds really—

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:14:31   That got us started, basically.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:14:32   That sounds really quite fascinating. So BPEA was in China, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea. Here’s the thing I’m fascinated by. Maybe New York is different from Florida, which is different from Texas, which is different from California—but we all speak the same language, more or less. It’s the same laws, the same regulatory structure. When you’re working throughout Asia, there’s a different legal system, a different cultural dynamic, different political dynamics. How do you build relationships? How do you build a knowledge base and navigate? From an American perspective, are those countries more similar than we imagine, or am I teeing this up correctly—each one is its own independent, unique region?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:15:24   You’re absolutely right about that, and that actually is the key, I think, to what we’ve been able to achieve over three decades—overcoming those barriers. Because ultimately, people think of Asia, they call it Asia, but it’s really, first of all, geographic—it’s a huge, expansive region. From Tokyo to Sydney, it’s like a 12-hour flight. And even from Hong Kong all the way to India, it’s still a pretty long distance. And culturally, you’re talking about a very significant difference in the local culture, the local language, the ways of doing business. So what we did initially—and we were actually criticized for this in the early days, because in those days people just did single-country funds for that very reason. You had a China fund, a Japan fund, a Korea fund. What we set out to do was to say, okay, we’re going to create a regional investment program. People looked at me and said, what do you know about investing in Japan? Or, what do you know about India? You’re not even from Asia. And so what I appreciated early on—this has been an important lesson in my career—is that being a good investor is very important for what we do in our industry, but if you want to build a company, which was always my ambition, if you want to build a business out of it, you need to actually build a team, not just be a good investor. Being a good investor is kind of a prerequisite to be in our industry. But beyond that, it’s really about building a team. So I was lucky enough to meet and bring on board some great partners early on, with very diverse backgrounds. We have people, even to this day, from each of these markets. We had great partners from China, from Taiwan, on our team that we hired early on. We had a very good team in India, on the ground in Mumbai. We call it “local with locals,” where you have local teams in each market. In 2005, we opened up an office in Japan and we hired a great team there. As we were building the team, you needed to have people from those markets who understood those markets. But the next question is, how do you stitch it all together? How do you create that common thread? And that comes down to culture—building a culture of like-minded people. So I started to gain a huge appreciation for the importance of culture in a business. And that’s something that EQT, I think, has really excelled in globally. One of the reasons I was ultimately attracted to EQT, in combining our business with EQT four or five years ago, was that Conni Jonsson, the founder of EQT, early on—with the Wallenbergs’ backing—realized that culture ultimately drives performance in an investment organization like ours. So he built an organization with tremendous culture, and our culture was actually somewhat similar. So we were able to bring the two cultures together, and the cultural fit ended up being what made that merger so successful. But going back to building the Asia business—building the team on the ground, building the common culture—then it was, how do we institutionalize this, instead of just doing deals here and there? How do we create a unified, systematic approach? This is where my Bain days came in: let’s come up with some constructs about how we think about capital allocation, how we think about diversification, how we think about macro, how we think about sector trends, how we think about our investment committee process. How do we drive systematic due diligence in every market, so we have quality control in each market—it’s not just random deal makers doing things the way they want to on the ground? And so pulling all that together took a lot of time. I’m shortening it here, but there were a lot of ups and downs, a lot of mistakes, a lot of setbacks. But eventually we got there, and we refined our strategy over the years and created something that’s actually quite hard to replicate—this regional platform delivering consistent outcomes, with a great team of consistent people who have been with us a long time and have a similar approach to underwriting and, ultimately, great performance. So, going from $25 million, by the time we did the deal with EQT we had $25 billion under management—over the span of what was 25 years of building the business.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:19:38   Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jean Eric Salata, chairman of EQT Group, discussing the combination of BPEA and EQT. I’m Barry Ritholtz, and you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

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BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:20:12   I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Jean Eric Salata. He is chair of EQT Group, one of the largest alternative managers outside of the US. They manage $316 billion. So let’s talk a little bit about how this all came about. In 2022, you merged BPEA with EQT—a $7 billion deal that followed about 25 years of independence. What led to that decision to merge? What could EQT offer that BPEA couldn’t build on its own?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:20:52   Yeah, I think what I started to sense in about 2015 was that the industry was changing—our industry was changing globally. You started to see global firms moving into Asia. You started to see some firms going public. You started to see multi-product firms developing beyond just a single product, single asset class—scale. And I realized that although we were doing very well and growing successfully, if we wanted to make this a multi-generational business that’s going to continue to thrive, we wanted to be part of this industry consolidation, this trend toward scale—rather than be pushed aside by it. That’s when I started thinking, what are our options? One option was to try to expand beyond Asia and develop our business outside the region. That was going to be pretty difficult at this stage, because the business is becoming so large and entrenched globally. And then I started looking at ways of working with others. That’s when I met EQT, really through their own IPO, which they had recently done—they had gone public in 2018, 2019. I was curious about that. I went to speak to them about how they had done it. We started talking, and one thing led to another, and by the end of the conversation it became evident to all of us sitting around the table that there was something here that could be quite powerful if we were to bring the businesses together.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:22:22   You mentioned earlier how important culture is to performance in an investment world. I would imagine that a Swedish firm like EQT and essentially a regional Asian firm like BPEA—you’d imagine those are very different cultures, and there’s going to be a challenge integrating the two. What was your experience like trying to get all the horses pulling in the same direction?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:22:53   I think initially you could imagine that would be the case, but as it turns out, a few things. First of all, EQT started off as a Swedish firm, but by the time we met it had really already become a much more global business—first Swedish, then European, expanding into Europe, and then expanding into the US, with some presence in Asia, not much. Secondly, EQT is backed by the Wallenberg family. The Wallenberg family is a sixth-generation family from Sweden that has a history of doing business globally—investors in Ericsson, Electrolux, Saab, AstraZeneca, many of the big Swedish companies. So they have a very global mindset in the way they think about doing business. And then I think the other aspect here is there’s a difference between a European firm like EQT and, say, American firms. The European firms are already thinking in terms of, well, every country’s different. The Nordics are different from Germany, which is different from France, which is different from Southern Europe. So when they come to Asia, they have a heightened sense of appreciation for the cultural differences within Asia. To me that was really important—that they understand that within Asia, Japan is very different from India, and India is very different from China. So I felt almost like there was a kindred spirit there, understanding that each country, each region—the cultures really matter. Then I’d say if you look at the histories of the firms, we’re both about 30 years old at the time. We both had our ups and downs. We both kind of built the business from a founder—Conni and myself. There was a lot of common, shared history there. And ultimately it boiled down to the chemistry of the senior team, but then ultimately the culture throughout. I felt very comfortable with it. We spent some time together, meeting with the team members, meeting with each other, and we ended up feeling like this was going to be a great fit—still taking a chance in bringing the businesses together. But having done it now, having been together for nearly four years, I can tell you it’s been a huge success. It really boils down to the fact that the people, the cultural fit, was very strong. Maybe a good time to talk about the values of EQT, which are similar to the values we had at Baring Private Equity at the time. There are some key values that EQT has. Number one, it’s high-performing—which is something most people in our industry are going to focus on. But beyond that, we focus a lot on transparency. We focus on being informal. We focus on being entrepreneurial. And we have a fifth value, which is respectful. If you take all those as a package, what you start to sense is the sort of people who end up coming to EQT and staying at EQT. It’s not the typical deal maker—the Wall Street type of deal maker that you get in some parts of our industry. And I think that really appealed to the makeup of our firm at the time—having that really informal interaction with people. That’s a little bit of a Nordic trait, I would say—this lack of hierarchy. Take a look at Conni: he’s the founder of the firm, and he opened up the ownership of the firm early to all the partners. The fact that he was even open to combining with my old business and, in a sense, diluting even further on a fairly large transaction—that speaks to this expansive view of, we’re trying to build an institution here. It’s not about any one individual, it’s not about creating a legacy of any one individual. It’s about creating a business that’s going to last. That mindset really appealed to me, and felt like the kind of place that was a good home for the company that we had built as a partnership prior to that.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:26:43   Really interesting. Let’s talk a little bit about how the capital is invested. 65% of EQT’s capital is in Europe and Asia. How do you think about geographic diversification? It’s always a challenge.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:26:59   I think diversification is becoming more and more top of mind for global investors, particularly when we talk to our institutional investors. Even in the private wealth channels, you’re starting to get a sense that people feel overly concentrated, over-extended, maybe, in US assets. Not to say that US assets are not attractive, or that they don’t have great prospects—which they do. But having 85, 90% of your assets tied into a market that’s already highly concentrated is becoming a little bit uneasy for people. So what we’re sensing with our clients is a desire to get exposure to more global markets. And where we’re strong is, we have two-thirds of our business outside of the US. We’re very strong in Europe, very strong in Asia. Within those markets, we’re also exposed to some of the best sectors—we have a very thematic approach. We invest in healthcare, we invest in technology. Actually, we just announced yesterday—I don’t know when this is airing—that we’ve been awarded the Scale Up Europe Fund mandate by the European Commission, which is a huge deal. They decided to award EQT the management of what’s going to be a $5 billion fund that will invest in early-stage technology ventures across Europe to help them scale up—so series B onwards, in areas like quantum computing, AI, life sciences, AI infrastructure, industrial technology—really taking the innovation that exists in Europe and scaling it up to compete globally, at global scale, with some of the innovation you see in the United States and in China. So we have exposure to some of these really interesting parts of the global investment landscape, and that’s very additive to what investors typically would have. Their traditional portfolio would be much more heavily weighted toward the US, and this is a way to get a little bit broader global diversification.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:28:53   Really interesting. When we look at the performance of various markets, really going back to the great financial crisis, it feels like Asia and Europe very much lagged the US, up until a year or two ago. I’m curious how you look at some of the macro tailwinds that Asia is certainly enjoying, as we see a shift toward China in many ways, especially leadership. And how do you see Europe? There are some tailwinds, some headwinds—they seem to be a little more complex in trying to figure out what direction they’re heading.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:29:34   Exactly. I think what we’re starting to see globally right now is this CapEx supercycle that is playing out with AI infrastructure—but not just AI infrastructure. It also feeds into the reindustrialization focus, the CapEx for reindustrialization.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:30:00   Reindustrialization—explain what that means.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:30:07   Meaning investing back into more of the industrial base of, say, the United States or Europe, away from just outsourcing all of it. So this reindustrialization, the AI CapEx infrastructure, plus the whole power and energy transition that’s going on with electrification—this is resulting in much more capital-intensive investment than we’ve ever seen before. The numbers people are throwing around are just unprecedented within our lifetimes. It’s historical, the levels of investment that we’re seeing. And that has knock-on effects throughout the whole supply chain. A lot of the supply chain actually feeds back into Europe. It feeds back into Asia, certainly. So this global supply chain of capital expenditures is creating new investment opportunities and demand for capital that we have never seen before, in terms of the quantum of money that’s required to make this investment play out. So broadening that exposure across the regions is where we see opportunity. If I look at the world today, the AI infrastructure opportunity globally is probably the single biggest, most interesting investment opportunity for us. It means investing in a couple of key areas. One is the compute, or data center, space. We have one of the largest data center businesses in the world, called EdgeConneX. It’s active both in the US and in Europe, and now increasingly in Asia. We have a joint venture in India, for example, with the Adani Group, in EdgeConneX. That data center business has over 90 data centers. It’s increased in value—we’ve owned it now for six, seven years—I think it’s increased by 20x in terms of the total installed capacity of the business. In addition to that, we take an end-to-end solutions approach. So we have the compute, but we also have about $100 billion of investment into energy—the whole energy grid, power generation and storage. This is a really important part of the comprehensive solution that you need to drive AI compute. So we’ve got the energy, we’ve got the compute, and we’re also investing in the digital infrastructure to connect it all—the digital connectivity of all of this. If you tie that all together, our infrastructure business is really riding some of these global tailwinds—not just in the US, but really doing this globally. Then in addition to that, the other thing that’s pretty interesting, if you take a non-US lens on the world, is what’s happening in Japan. The Japanese buyout market is really on a tear. It’s being driven primarily by some corporate reforms around shareholder reforms and increasing shareholder activism—which is supported, actually, by the Japanese government, to improve corporate governance. That’s creating opportunities to really focus on shareholder value and resulting in a lot more deal flow. The number of transactions we’ve seen this year alone is up 60% year to date. The total number of activist shareholder campaigns has doubled in the last few years—from 50 to over a hundred a year—on the back of some of these reforms. So you’re seeing a whole new market developing there for Japanese buyouts, which is very uncorrelated and very complementary to the traditional buyout opportunities that exist in the United States. And then, together with the AI infrastructure opportunity, which is more global, there’s just a lot happening in our ecosystem, which we see as being very additive, very complementary to just the traditional bread and butter of US exposure to private equity or US infrastructure.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:33:40   So I have so many questions to go from that.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:33:43   Sorry, maybe just one last point on that. You started the question off with the outperformance of the market. What ended up happening last year, as you pointed out, is that the stock markets—if you look at listed markets as a proxy—the S&P 500 did pretty well. It was up sort of 18% or something—

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:33:58   17, yeah. Versus 33 overseas.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:34:00   But everything else, in Asia, was up much more than that, as it turned out. Even—

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:34:04   Europe, Korea—amazing. Who would’ve guessed?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:34:06   Korea’s up 60% last year. Hong Kong was up, Japan was up in the thirties, and even European stock markets did better than the US last year. So the idea that you have all your pension, all your retirement money in one market—it’s worked pretty well for the time being. But the idea of correlation and concentration—markets don’t always go up, they go down as well. I think the old diversification strategies do play a role in long-term asset allocation. And that’s where EQT, I think, has something.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:34:40   I have so many questions about Europe and Japan and Korea, but I have to come back to China for a moment. For the better part of the past two or three decades, China has been the center of Asia. It feels like the geopolitics, the regulatory environment—everything has shifted fairly dramatically. How do you look at China? Are they still the 800-pound gorilla, or are there enough offsetting economies that are really growing and seeing gains in their markets that it’s not all about China the way it once was 10, 20 years ago?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:35:25   The world geopolitically is becoming more polarized, and maybe creating more silos in certain strategic areas like technology and defense, as the winds have shifted. That’s just the reality of the world we’re living in. Having said that, I do think there’s still this underlying ecosystem of interdependence and a desire, I think, to work together—I hope—in areas like, for example, medicine. If you look at the biopharma, the biotech industry, there’s a lot going on right now between China and the US. A lot of the early-stage trials being done—many of those are getting acquired by US pharmaceutical companies and then rolled out for the benefit of humanity all over the world. These are areas where there’s scope for cooperation, and I think everyone can benefit from that. There are areas that are much more sensitive when it comes to technology and chips and semiconductors. But even there, it’s important for all investors, for all businesses, for governments, for policymakers, to at least understand what’s happening in China, because I think it’s relevant—it has an impact on the global outlook. You look at EVs, you look at the solar industry, you look at what’s happening in battery storage—having access to that sort of know-how ultimately is going to be important for everyone. How you do that in a way that protects your national interest is a topic of the day for policymakers globally, in the US and Europe. I think people are looking at that differently than they used to, in terms of how much they’re willing to outsource versus how much they want to do themselves. This Scale Up Europe Fund that I just mentioned is also a policy response to wanting to create homegrown innovation and scale it—which makes sense, the way the US wants to do that and the way China wants to do that. I think the Chinese economy—it’s truly impressive what’s happening there in terms of innovation, the way the economy is growing, and the amount of R&D. If you look at the patents being filed, the level of innovation, how the innovation is being commercialized. But at the same time, there are some very exciting things happening in Europe and in the United States. Obviously the US is also leading in many ways when it comes to AI. One of the things to keep an eye on, by the way, is the cost-of-compute differential between the US and China. There is a big difference in how compute is generated and ultimately the cost of that compute per token to users, which is going to become more of a focus going forward than it has been up until now—where it’s kind of been viewed as a must-have, almost free, available to all employees. There will be more focus on ROI, and this is where people are going to start looking at the competitive position of cost of compute in different markets versus what’s happening in the US.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:38:28   Last question on EQT, before we start talking a little more about the environment out there today. How do investors in EQT manage their exposure? Are they putting money into one fund that has a little bit of everything, or do people get very granular—or a little bit of both?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:38:49   We have 30 different strategies at EQT, across four different areas: private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and secondaries. Secondaries is our newest area—we’ve just announced that we’ve acquired Coller Capital. It hasn’t closed yet, but we’re in the process of bringing that on board. So we have 30 different strategies, and I think we have both. We have the drawdown funds, which are the main institutional vehicles for committing traditionally, as you would, to a fund that invests in buyouts, or in growth capital, or in life sciences, or in real estate. But increasingly—and this is the highest-growth part of our business, and for the industry as a whole—we have the open-ended structures. Some people call them evergreens. We don’t call them semi-liquid, because they’re not liquid; they’re not even semi-liquid; but they’re open-ended. And what open-ended means is that you can subscribe to them every month and you can redeem every quarter, subject to the underlying liquidity availability in the quarter. What we’re starting to see is a couple of advantages of the evergreen, or open-ended, structures. Number one, they do invest across everything, so you don’t have to choose which funds you want to invest in—you get broad exposure. Number two, they invest 100% of your money immediately into the asset class. So we’re starting to see institutional investors use this too, not just the private clients, because they’re able to dial up and dial down their exposure instantly. If you want to have a certain percent of your portfolio in private markets, rather than waiting for the capital to be called over the next two, three years, you can just put it to work immediately into the asset class through these evergreen structures, which are fully invested on an NAV basis immediately. So that’s one of the interesting aspects. The other interesting aspect of our evergreen, or open-ended, structures is that—unlike some of the other products out there, which have designated investment strategies or investment teams for those open-ended structures—our open-ended structure is essentially pari passu alongside everything we do. You get exactly the same exposure to exactly the same deals, the same pricing, the same everything that we provide to our sovereign wealth fund clients, that we provide to our institutional clients. It’s all allocated across equally. So there’s no cherry-picking, no different strategies for the wealth vehicle versus the institutional vehicle. It’s a single vehicle. And then the other key aspect of our investment program—which is sort of why we’ve landed where we’ve landed in terms of our fundraising last year—for example, we’ve just announced the closing of our Asia fund, which is a $15 billion fund. It’s the largest fund ever raised in Asia: $15.6 billion. The reason we’ve been able to achieve this is because of the exits and liquidity profile of our investment program. It’s been a tough environment for exits and liquidity—it’s one of the challenges you read a lot about in our industry. We actually had a record year for exits last year at EQT.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:41:45   $40 billion?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:41:47   $40 billion, something like that. We had $40 billion in distributions, and that’s huge. It’s huge. It’s a record—

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:41:53   That’s more than 10% of total invested dollars. That’s tremendous.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:41:57   It’s actually about 30% of the NAV of the strategies that that covers. And if you look at active funds, and the liquidity profile there, it even included a significant amount of tapping into the equity capital markets—the public markets. We were actually the number one ECM firm last year. We had $15 billion of equity capital markets activity, ranked number one—by far, actually—relative to all the other private equity firms out there, on the back of just having some really interesting assets that the market was open for.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:42:31   Meaning, when you have a liquidity event, that money doesn’t just sit in bonds—you put it actively into equity markets?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:42:39   No—meaning that we’re able to take our companies public, or sell down through the public markets, as an avenue of getting liquidity, versus just trying to sell to other buyout funds or to strategic buyers. Those deals have been a bit slower, and even the IPO markets have been challenging. But within a challenging IPO market, we had the highest level of activity of all market participants.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:43:01   It’s amazing. My bias is to not think IPO, because of what we’ve seen the past five years—but thinking some exit, and then just park the cash there. I have it exactly backwards: you exit through the IPO market, and then you distribute the cash to LPs.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:43:18   Exactly. Our biggest exit last year globally was a company called Galderma, which is a European medical aesthetics business, providing medical aesthetic products including things like Botox, that have been on the rise—and completely uncorrelated to AI dislocation. An investment that did extremely well for us. In total, over the last two or three years since we took it public, we’ve realized something like $24 billion of distributions from that single investment. Last year alone, we sold over $8 billion in one single tranche, which was the largest transaction ever completed in the public markets by a private equity firm. So the point of all this is really to say that in a tough market, where people are looking for distributions, it’s nice to be diversified globally—where you’re not tying all your liquidity proceeds to a single strategy or a single market, but you have exposure to multiple markets, and you’re getting cash back from different strategies to give you the cash you need at a time when you’re lacking distributions from other parts of your portfolio.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:44:25   Really fascinating. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jean Eric Salata, chairman of EQT Group, discussing the combination of BPEA and EQT. I’m Barry Ritholtz, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

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BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:45:16   I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Jean Eric Salata. He is chair of EQT Group, one of the largest alternative managers outside of the US. They manage $316 billion. So let’s talk a little bit about the state of alternatives and markets in the current environment. You mentioned artificial intelligence, energy transition, healthcare, digitalization. What has you most excited in Asia over the coming decade?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:45:34   I think in Asia, as we were touching on a little earlier, there are a couple of big themes we’re excited about. One is this CapEx supercycle, which is feeding through the Asian supply chain. When you’re talking about building data centers or semiconductor memory chips and so on, there’s a whole supply chain that feeds into that—whether it’s the cooling, the grid, the capital equipment used to manufacture, the testing equipment, the services around that. So there’s a whole supply chain that’s seeing elevated activity and growth. I think the number is something like an incremental $5 trillion of CapEx being spent in Asia within the industrial supply chain between now and over the next five years. It’s growing at about 15% a year. So you’ve got healthy growth, tremendous CapEx spend. It’s a little bit of the picks-and-shovels approach: you have this tremendous boom in AI, and there are knock-on effects into the supply chain, and Asia’s pretty well positioned to participate in that. You look at markets like Korea, like Japan—those are probably two of the biggest beneficiaries—and certain parts of Southeast Asia as well. So we’re excited about that. I think the second big opportunity, which we touched on earlier as well, is just the Japanese buyout market, and the level of reform you’re seeing there, driving increased deal flow—driving really what I call the excess-returns opportunities that private equity is good at and should be focusing on. The days of buying undermanaged assets—either changing the management or enhancing the strategy of the business in order to close the gap between the operating performance of the business and the full potential of the business—that’s the traditional playbook of private equity. It’s gotten harder to do in parts of the market that have become more efficient globally. You have a lot of shareholder activism already, so most public companies are already doing what they should be doing. But in Japan, they’re a little bit still further behind. And now you see a big push by the Japanese authorities and political leadership to drive efficiency in their economy and to drive corporate governance reforms, which is trying to close this gap between full potential and performance. As a result, there are a lot more assets being sold—either corporate divestitures, take-privates, or generational change happening with founder-led businesses—where you’re buying a business and you really see the opportunity to simplify and improve execution. It’s really about that: focusing the business in fewer areas, and then improving execution on management.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:48:22   Let’s talk about energy transition. It feels like here in the United States we’re sort of backing away from a lot of alternatives. Asia seems to be full speed ahead. What are you seeing as opportunities in that space?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:48:38   We see a lot of opportunities across both Europe and Asia in the energy transition. With what’s going on now in the Middle East as well, it’s kind of driving home the point that energy security is going to be even more critical in the future. There’s a tremendous technological push of innovation coming out of China in terms of supply chain—for batteries, for solar, even areas like hydrogen. You’re starting to see a lot of very interesting scaled-up innovation there. We have a big infrastructure business in Asia that invests in the energy transition. We invest in battery storage, for example. We have a big business in Australia now—Australia is big in this area. We expect to see more opportunities there. Singapore’s been a leader, actually, in funding the energy transition throughout Southeast Asia—very forward-thinking in that regard. It’s just a large investment opportunity that ultimately, with energy transition and climate-related concerns, the real catalyst here is ultimately going to have to be the market forces that drive this forward. It has to be that it’s more cost-competitive, more cost-effective, to do things using electricity and the grid than using fossil fuels. Otherwise, if it’s not more cost-effective, the market forces aren’t really at play, and you’re relying on policy or relying on philanthropy—and it’s just harder to see these things scale. But we’re getting to this tipping point where the cost curves are coming down, the security concerns are becoming real. And when that happens, then, with scale, with volumes—whether it’s EV batteries or solar panels—you’re starting to see the big uptake in the movement in that direction.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:50:27   We’re getting a sense in the United States that the war in Iran and the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, accelerating the move away from gas, oil, crude, coal—even toward alternatives. What’s the perspective like from Asia?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:50:46   I would agree with that. I think energy security is top of mind. Certainly China has moved very much in this direction—they have the largest installed base of renewable energy, and they’re the largest investor in renewable energy globally. They’re moving in that direction probably mainly for energy security reasons, as well as global competitiveness reasons. And then eventually it’s also going to come—I mean, there’s still a multi-decade run in fossil fuels, for sure, that’s going to play out—but ultimately there’s going to be a cost issue related to fossil fuels. If you want to be competitive as an economy, what’s your cost of energy? If energy is a scarce resource and the cost of energy is going higher and higher versus the other alternatives out there, and you haven’t invested in that, you’re playing catch-up. It will feed through to the rest of the industrial base. And I think this is where it’s important to take a longer-term perspective, and where private equity can play a role—thinking through the next five, ten years. How do you make companies more competitive? How do you drive innovation? How do you drive investment in energy competitiveness and the energy transition to help this happen?

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:51:55   We haven’t really talked about India, which has always felt like it was, oh, two years away—this is really going to be the next powerhouse economy. It always feels like it’s on the verge. What are you seeing there? It kind of feels like one of the more compelling growth stories.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:52:14   I like India a lot. We’re very, very bullish on India. It’s been the biggest market for us over the last five years in terms of where we’ve invested. Historically, the story’s been a lot about technology investments, in the tech services industry primarily, which has been a beneficiary of global investment in technology and the tech stack and the migration to the cloud. That has hit a little bit of a disruption now with what’s going on with AI. But they’re quickly adapting to it and using AI tools to actually make enterprises more competitive, and to help diffuse AI into the enterprise—using the skills and the millions of computer technology programmers and labor available to help drive AI adoption, which is one of the things India is very competitive in. But the bigger story in India, I think, for the next five years is more about the consumer and the growth in the middle class. One of the big beneficiaries of the growing middle class—as you’re now seeing a huge increase—it’s the largest population in the world, 1.4 billion people. It’s also the youngest population in the world, so the demographics are very favorable. One of the big early beneficiaries that we’re starting to see on the ground in India is the healthcare sector. Housing and healthcare. The first thing people do when they start to save and generate a good income is buy a home, and then they want to make sure their family is well looked after—their parents and their children well looked after from a healthcare standpoint. So we’re seeing strong demand for housing, housing finance, and for healthcare, which are some of the areas we’re investing in in India.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:53:48   So I’m going to paraphrase a quote of yours: “Talent is the key to unlocking outsized returns in private equity.” You’re looking at India, China, Japan, Korea, Europe, and the United States. How do you find and develop management teams in such a broad, diverse selection of regions? That sounds like its own specific challenge.

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:54:14   It is. One of the things we’ve learned over the years is the importance of being able to be what we call an active owner in the businesses we buy. That has really meant that we’ve migrated primarily to a controlled buyout strategy—other than in our early-stage tech strategies. But in our main strategies, we’re a buyout investor, which means we have control. Having control enables you to really effect change in the business, and it collapses this agency problem that you see between ownership and management in many other markets around the world—and Asia is no exception. We’re starting to collapse that, and see that collapse, in Asia, through the ownership model—the governance model, really, that private equity brings when we invest, as an industry. As a result, as we’ve scaled our business over time, you’re starting to be able to really develop pools of talent. For example, we have seven, eight hundred what we call industrial advisors globally across EQT, from different industrial sectors that we invest in. We tap into those to come and become what we call our non-executive chairs, or independent non-executive chairmen. So we have a chairman we bring in from industry. We usually have a CEO—either the existing CEO or a new CEO. And then we have our deal partner. That combination of those three people is the governance structure for our investments that drives the active ownership model for our business. We’re also seeing a bigger pool of domestic talent now that we’re able to develop within, say, Japan, within India, through multiple private equity-backed investments that we’ve made—where the same CEO, for example, that we work with before, we can work with that same individual again, because the model has now been tried and tested and been around for a couple of decades. So you’re developing a much deeper bench of talent in private equity in Asia than you’ve had in the past. And that’s been a key driver of returns—the combination of governance through the buyout strategy, plus the talent pool that’s available now.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:56:12   I have one last question before we get to our favorites that we ask all our guests. What do you think investors are not talking about or thinking about, but should be, when it comes to private equity—different geographies, different regulatory policy changes? What is getting under-noticed or overlooked but shouldn’t be?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:56:34   I think one of the really interesting developments is what’s happening in the convergence between public and private markets—companies staying private longer, and the blurring of the lines there. How do you get exposure, if you’re an investor, to the best businesses in the world? Do you wait until they become public, or do you do it before they become public? Historically, it was a very small minority of institutional investors that really got exposure to private markets. Individual investors had almost zero. That’s changed a lot in the last few years, but it’s going to change, I think, even more as we move into the coming years and people start to participate more—the democratization of our asset class that people talk about. I think a big trend related to that is the blurring of the lines, or convergence, between the secondary market and the primary market of private equity. Those two used to be viewed as completely different things. You invest in a private equity fund, and if you can’t get your money back after seven or eight years, you find someone to buy those interests from you—that’s a secondary market. That has changed. Think about the public markets: when you invest in a stock, you’re buying a secondary position. When you buy Apple stock today, you’re buying it from someone who’s selling it to you. You’re buying a secondary; you’re not buying the IPO of Apple—that was a primary that happened 25 years ago. The same thing’s happened in private equity. All the companies that are private—in order to buy them, you had to buy them as a primary, through a fund that bought the company as a private deal. Well, now we have $3.8 trillion of private companies out there that are unrealized, that everybody’s complaining about. That actually is the foundation of a secondary market now in private companies—private assets that you and I and others can start to participate in through the secondary market. You don’t need to find a new deal to buy; you can buy an existing business that’s privately owned, if you like it, if it’s got great return potential, if it’s the right price. It’s another way to get exposure to the asset class—through these evergreen structures, for example, and particularly through the secondary market structures, which is the way a lot of institutional investors are starting to think about it. If I want to dial up or dial down my exposure to private markets, I can use secondary structures. I don’t need to invest in a private equity fund per se; I can do that through the secondary markets.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:58:52   So let’s jump to our speed round, starting with: who were your early mentors who helped shape your career?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:58:58   I was very lucky. I had a third-grade teacher who took an interest in me and kept me after school to help me work on independent projects. It was like an outlet for my creativity, which I felt was frustrated in class. Really amazing teacher.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:59:13   Let’s talk about books. What are some of your favorites? What are you reading currently?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:59:17   I read a great book called Why the West Rules—for Now, which is a sweeping history of why the industrial revolution happened in the West and not in Asia and the East. But it talks about how, going forward, that could change. If anybody’s interested in history, I highly recommend that book.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  00:59:33   Really, really good. Final two questions. What sort of advice would you give a recent college grad interested in a career in either investing or private equity?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  00:59:44   Two things I would say. One, you need to be AI-native these days—which was obviously not the case when I was starting out. And secondly, perseverance. Don’t give up. Stay in the game, because things come and go. You get knocked down, you get back up, you stay in the game, and new opportunities arise.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  01:00:00   Final question. What do you know about the world of private equity, private real estate, credit, infrastructure—alternatives—today that might have been useful back in the nineties, when you were really getting your legs under you?

JEAN ERIC SALATA  01:00:13   The so-called eighth wonder of the world, which is the power of compounding. I wish I’d appreciated that a bit more. After 30 years of investing—if you let something ride for 30 years, generally, if it’s a decent business, it’ll be worth a lot of money.

BARRY RITHOLTZ  01:00:27   Jean Eric, this has been absolutely fascinating. Thank you for being so generous with your time. We’ve been speaking with Jean Eric Salata, chair of the EQT Group. If you enjoy this conversation, well, check out any of the 640 we’ve done over the previous 14 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube—wherever you get your favorite podcasts. I would be remiss if I didn’t thank the crack team that helps put these conversations together each week. Alexis Noriega is my video producer. Sean Russo is my researcher. Anna Luke is our producer. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

~~~

 

 

 

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads:

How to Earn a Billion Dollars. Someone replied that having a few million and growing at 93% a month was radically different from being a billionaire. I suspect many people would agree with this statement. But it turns out not merely to be false, but false in a very illuminating way. So I would like you all to do me a favor please. I would like you to take out your phones and calculate a number: compound 93% monthly on 2 million for a year… (Paul Graham)

Want to Delay RMDs From Your 401(k)? Don’t Retire: Barron’s on the still-working exception that delays RMDs from a current employer’s 401(k). Niche, but useful for the right reader. (Barron’s)

Triple-Digit Club: A Wave of Stocks Have Seen Huge Gains in 2026: Morningstar on the surprisingly broad set of 100%+ YTD names in 2026. The market isn’t quite as narrow as the index would suggest. (Morningstar)

The Tiny Solar Panel That Could Change America: A technology — known as plug-in, balcony or garden solar — is already enormously popular in Germany, in part because you can buy a kit for less than $600 at IKEA. It’s a small solar panel system, often producing up to 1,200 watts of electricity, or a little more than a refrigerator consumes, that you can affix to a wall, hang on a railing or prop up in a garden — and then plug directly into a wall socket. With the help of a small device called a micro inverter, it pumps electricity into your household circuits to offset your power demand. (New York Times)

Brutally honest guide to not losing money in the market: A straightforward read-the-room piece on capital preservation in markets that look priced for perfection. The boring rules still work. (Yahoo News)

The Untold Story of the Google Buses That Took Over San Francisco: A decade ago, commuter buses attracted big protests in San Francisco. Years later, the city is still feeling the repercussions. A book excerpt revisiting how the Google bus became a symbol of everything San Francisco loves and hates about tech. Better history than you’d expect.A decade ago, commuter buses attracted big protests in San Francisco. Years later, the city is still feeling the repercussions. (Wired)

They’re calling it the end of the war. It’s a tactical pause, nobody’s signed a damn thing, and the terms hand Iran the win. Don’t call this the end of the war. This is a tactical pause and a dangerous part of the political game. Others are calling it that, and they are wrong, or at least early. Read the terms and tell me who truly won. Iran keeps the Strait, keeps the enrichment, gets twenty-four billion dollars back, and the disarmament gets shoved into sixty days of talks Iran swears it will not lose. Israel is calling it a surrender. It swallowed the loss on Iran and bombed Beirut instead, and Iran says a response is coming. Nothing is signed, and Friday is a long way off. (The Omission) see also Trump Winds Down the War He Started With Goals Unmet: NYT on the gap between the original Iran-war objectives and what the deal actually delivers. The exit ramp is less a strategy than a relief. While the president says the agreement with Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz and provide economic relief, the country’s nuclear program is still a subject for negotiation. (New York Times) see also The peace deal with Tehran is an Iranian victory.The Atlantic’s take on the Iran deal as a face-saving retreat dressed up as victory. The talking points and the terms don’t line up. The peace deal with Tehran is an Iranian victory. (The Atlantic)

Pickiness tastes like trauma How American children became the fussiest eaters in history (and why they need to check their not-dying privilege). But it turns out that Picky is not about what modern parents are doing wrong. Helen is a historian and she traces a wide variety of factors across hundreds of years—things like industrialization of the food supply chain, advertising and its consequences, and the weaponization of parental anxiety for nefarious purposes—to explain how we got here as a culture. (Oakland Review of Books)

Where Did Earth Get Its Oceans? Maybe It Made Them Itself.: Quanta on new evidence that Earth synthesized much of its water internally rather than importing it via comets. A small but profound rewrite of the origin story. At first, scientists thought Earth’s water came from comets. Then, asteroids. Now, they wonder if Earth’s water is homegrown. (Quanta Magazine)

The Mastermind Who Built the Knicks—One Outrageous Gamble at a Time: When Leon Rose came to New York in 2020, the Knicks had gone decades without a chance at a title. But the team’s president turned them into the ultimate winners by building a roster of underdogs. WSJ on Leon Rose and the front-office gambits that built this Knicks roster. The contrarian moves are easier to admire after the fact. (Wall Street Journal) see also How Can You Not be Romantic About NYC? God Bless Jalen Brunson:.Jack Raines on what it’s like to live in New York right now — the Knicks, the noise, the grind, the moments that justify the rent. A perfect Sunday read. (Young Money)

Video of the day: The Powell years at the Fed: A retrospective

Our Masters in Business interview this week was with Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT Group and Chair of EQT Asia. EQT is a purpose-driven global investment organization with over $310 billion in total assets under management, making it the largest private markets firm headquartered outside the United States.

Building capacity to produce exposed products would require a shift in capital investment

Source: McKinsey

 

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Serendipity: The Role of Luck in Your Life and Career

 

 

Since it’s commencement time, I wanted to share a few thoughts on serendipity.

I have been working in finance since 1996 — three decades. My views on nearly everything have evolved over that time: Indexing, crowd behavior, trading, media, hedge funds, fixed income, private equity, technology, success, and money.

The biggest belief shift I have made over that time is on the subject of “Luck.”

I downplayed the role of serendipity in my youth, but I have since come to recognize it as far weightier and more meaningful than I realized. Why? Because we all want to live in an orderly world governed by cause and effect. We need to believe that our efforts, intelligence, and skills will lead to good outcomes.

Hard work is its own reward” blah, blah, blah.

But the simple truth is that random events can and do lead to unanticipated outcomes that drive much of what occurs. We underestimate fortune, randomness, and chance at our own peril.

I have been hosting the Masters in Business podcast for 12 years now and have interviewed 650 notable guests, including many Nobel laureates, CEOs, billionaires, fund managers, venture capitalists, private equity investors, and assorted celebrities. The first time a billionaire told me how much luck was involved in their success, I dismissed it as a case of “false humility.” But after the 5th and then 10th mention of luck by wildly differing guests, I could no longer dismiss this so easily.

My interviews with Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital, and famed for his “Chairman’s Memos” were instructive.1 The first time he mentioned his good fortune, I pushed back, asking, “What about intelligence, hard work, and perseverance?”

His answer:

Everybody in my MBA class at the University of Chicago was very smart and very hard working. But hard work and intelligence are mere table stakes. Not everybody has fortune smile on them; not everybody gets lucky.”

That very honest and sincere answer was persuasive; it made me realize I might be underestimating the role of luck in my own career.

As I thought about it, I recalled numerous examples from my own life.

• Calling the bottom in March 2009 was as much a result of the school calendar — my wife is a teacher — as anything else. We were away on vacation when the market crossed my (infamous) target of “Dow 6,800” in March 2009. When we returned home that Sunday, I had already had time to quietly digest this while away from the markets. The timing of my Sunday evening “Cover Your Shorts and Go Long” missive was pure calendar serendipity; Henry Blodget invited my to come on TV the next day to repeat the message, and that was literally the day of the lows.2 My reward was 100s of people asking me to manage 100s of millions of their dollars.

• At a conference in Coronado Island, I sat at the pool next to a young kid named Josh Brown. We started to chat, and it was clear to me he was something special, overlooked by Wall Street. Bringing him from the Sell Side to the Buy Side was an easy decision – precipitated by the random choice of which poolside lounge chair I picked.

• Launching the firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management, in September 2013 was an inevitable result of 1) my frustration in working for other people and 2) my frustration with how Wall Street managed client monies. Oh, and launching 6 months after a new bull market started – signified by every major index leaping above their prior 2000-13 highs – as one of the best 15-year periods (and counting) of returns (2010-2025) was ramping up? Pure chance.

There were other somewhat random events that led to good outcomes:

-At my High School Senior Prom, the “last song” of the night was announced. I turned to the girl sitting behind me and asked her if she wanted to dance — and to my surprise she said “Yes.” That “girl” has been my wife for the past 34 years…

-In the summer of 2003, I was invited to beta test Six Apart’s “Typepad” – this new thingie called a “blog.” I moved my publishing from Geocities to Typepad and named it after William Goldman’s book, “The Big Picture.” That was 44,000 posts ago. But for someone noticing my real-time notes about what happened on September 11th, this would not have happened.

-My mom was a real estate agent; that’s how and why I began tracking various housing data points in the 2000s. (Most of Wall Street did not follow RRE closely).  But for that, I would not have noticed that the 2000s economy was kinda backwards – it was being driven by ultra-low rates driven and real estate, not true economic growth.

-My real time coverage of the great financial crisis was eventually turned into the book “Bailout Nation,” published in 2009. That led to a column on Personal Finance and Policy for the Washington Post beginning in 2011. From that, came a Bloomberg View column, and then in the spring of 2014, I began a new project for Bloomberg Radio: Masters in Business was Bloomberg’s first podcast.

That is a brief history of my own good fortune. When I see it in print, it’s clear to me that hard work, skill, perseverance, persistence, insight, creativity, etc., are all the minimum costs just to enter the arena. Table stakes, so to speak. Once you’re there, you still need to get lucky.

There are lots of aphorisms in the good fortune space that I find contradictory.

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.”

That assumes opportunity comes your way, and that is not always the case.

You make your own luck.”

I like Ed Smith’s response3 to this:

“Making your own luck is self-contradictory. The definition of luck is something outside your control. So if you are “making your own luck,” whatever you’re doing intentionally clearly does not fall into the category of luck.”

Increase your surface area for luck.” 4

I guess you can do more things that might have serendipitous outcomes, but isn’t that just saying “work hard, be persistent, and persevere?” It is, as Smith noted, not in the category of luck.

I have no insight into how to have the Fates smile upon you. But I can think of thousands of things you can do that would be helpful to your career.

Here are my top 10 things that helped me “get lucky” professionally:

1. Curiosity: Be genuinely interested in many things, including those that may not be related to your career; Be multi-talented;

2. Effort: Work hard! If possible, harder than everybody else. Sports coaches know that hard work beats talent (almost all of the time).

3. Mastery: Find something you really like and spend lots of time and effort mastering it. Becoming excellent at a single thing often spills over to other areas.

4. Auto-Didact: Read voraciously. Build a library, learn from the masters.

5. Forward-looking: Your academic background matters less and less the longer you are out of school. Stop stressing about it.

6. Add Value: Create something of value that others want — and are even willing to pay for;

7. Network: Meet as many people in your field as you can. Learn from them, and when possible, be genuinely helpful.

8. Specialize: Develop a specialty. Hone that skillset/knowledge until it is razor sharp;

9. Be Prepared: “Once in a lifetime” opportunities come along more frequently than you imagine; Be prepared for when those opportunities present themselves;

10. Serendipity: Be lucky.

 

This is what has worked for me. I hope these ideas will work for you . . .

 

 

Footnotes:

1. “Getting Lucky” by Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital, Jan 16, 2014.

2. “When Barry Ritholtz Talks, People Listen,” By Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics, March 11, 2009

3. “In Defence of Luck” by Ed Smith, Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts, March 12, 2014

4. “How to increase your surface area for luck” Cate Hall, July 23, 2025

 

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10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

Why the Enormous IPOs Won’t Sink the Market. This is a potential stock market sea change. For the past 23 years, the supply of shares has been shrinking. Companies have bought back gobs of stock while turning stingy on dividends—they like that buybacks don’t require an ongoing commitment. Fewer companies have gone public, and more have been taken private, resulting in thousands fewer listed companies since the mid-1990s. (Barron’s)

Predicting AI job exposure: Many people would like to analyse which jobs, companies and industries are most exposed to AI, and assign scores, build charts, and map that against the progress of LLMs. I think this is mostly impossible: you don’t know how the jobs will change, you don’t know what else will change around this, and you can’t measure work like that anyway. (Benedict Evans) see also A Minimum Wage Natural Experiment Has Been Running for Over a Decade: Arin Dube on the U.S. minimum-wage natural experiment hiding in plain sight. The estimated employment elasticities keep shrinking; the policy debate keeps not noticing. When 30 States Raised Minimum Wages, What Happened to Pay and Jobs? (Arin’s Substack)

Bitcoin’s long-term return may actually be close to zero — and that could be just what it needs: MarketWatch runs the math on Bitcoin’s long-term expected return and lands somewhere near zero. Counterintuitive piece worth reading even if you disagree. (MarketWatch)

How Americans Caught Gold Fever Again: New Yorker on the cultural return of gold-as-savings as faith in the dollar slips at the margins. The metal always tells you something about the moment. Soaring gold prices, viral panning influencers, macho gold-mining reality shows, and Trump’s gold obsession have ignited a craze for prospecting not seen since 1849. (New Yorker)

Parents are ‘going broke on berries’: WaPo on the genuinely insane berry inflation hitting young families. Trivial-sounding category, real budget bite — and a useful proxy for ag-supply-chain stress. (Washington Post)

For the first time, wind and solar generated more electricity than gas worldwide in April 2026: Rapid wind and solar growth is weakening the case for imported gas even during the latest energy crisis. Ember marks the crossover: renewables passed gas globally in April. A milestone that arrived faster than even the optimists had penciled in. (Ember)

Americans Are Keeping Their Cars Longer Than Ever—and Remaking the Auto Industry: Automakers, dealers and repair shops are changing business practices to adapt to a new normal: the 13-year-old car. WSJ on the average vehicle age hitting a new high and what it does to the OEM business model. Service and parts are now the cycle. (Wall Street Journal) see also This group just built affordable housing in SF for half the price and twice as fast: Apartments for formerly homeless seniors at 1633 Valencia St. show what can happen when developers and lenders are aligned from the start. (San Francisco Standard)

L’Affaire Siloxane How antiperspirant fumes nearly got NASA to evacuate the space station. Cegłowski on the unfolding silicone-additive scandal nobody’s quite covering. Patient, methodical, and very Cegłowski. (Mars For The Rest Of Us)

Nearly Everyone, Everywhere, Veers Left When Walking: Researchers are at a loss for why people across cultures and ages, regardless of their dominant hand, have a natural bias toward wandering in a counterclockwise direction. NYT on the surprisingly universal human bias toward counterclockwise drift. A small but charming reminder that we’re stranger creatures than we realize. Researchers are at a loss for why people across cultures and ages, regardless of their dominant hand, have a natural bias toward wandering in a counterclockwise direction. (New York Times)

Before Taylor Swift Bought Her House, Rebekah Harkness’s Parties Were the Stuff of Legend: Vanity Fair on the wild Newport socialite whose Rhode Island mansion Taylor Swift now owns. The house has more lore per square foot than most museums. A closer look at the fabulous Rhode Island heiress’s unforgettable midcentury soirees—which might meet their match if Swift and Travis Kelce hold their own wedding at her old estate. (Vanity Fair)

Video of the day: The reason this NYC cup has quietly disappeared

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT Group and Chair of EQT Asia. EQT is a purpose-driven global investment organization with over $310 billion in total assets under management, making it the largest private markets firm headquartered outside the United States.

 

Section 301 tariffs to offset Section 122 expiration

Source: BofA Securities

 

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15 Minutes to Being A Better Investor

 

Fun conversation with the “My First Million” guys!

 

Show Notes:

(0:00) Intro
(2:19) Christmas tree portfolio
(4:43) Cowboy account
(9:51) Day trading
(11:09) Barry yells at Lloyd Blankfein
(13:46) Panic selling
(16:45) Sam picks a fight
(18:46) Direct indexing
(21:43) Great investors
(27:25) 90% of everything is crap
(36:14) Elon’s foray into PE
(44:02) Predicting the housing crisis
(46:01) Spending a year as the dumbest guy on Wall Street
(49:01)Why bubbles are good for the economy

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