Ten Days, Then What?

Authored by Larry C. Johnson via Sonar21,

Donald Trump made another move in his feckless game of global checkers today in Scotland, with the announcement that he is giving Russia a new, much shorter deadline of ten days to end the war in Ukraine. Trump warned that if President Vladimir Putin does not reach a deal by around August 7–9, the US will impose new sanctions and “severe tariffs” on Russia and countries supporting its war effort. Trump’s new deadline elicited a collective yawn in Moscow.

Since the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO), trade between the US and Russia has shrunk dramatically. In 2021, US exports to Russia totaled approximately $6.4 billion and US imports from Russia totaled about $29.7 billion. This resulted in a US trade deficit with Russia of about $23.3 billion for that year.

In 2024, total trade in goods between the United States and Russia declined sharply due to ongoing sanctions, war-related restrictions, and other political measures. US exports to Russia in 2024:

Approximately $526 million, marking a decrease of over 12% compared to 2023. Major U.S. exports included medical/technical equipment, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and some food and chemical products.

U.S. imports from Russia in 2024:

About $3.0–$3.27 billion, down more than 34% compared to 2023 and down over 75% from pre-war levels in 2021–2022. Key Russian exports to the U.S. were fertilizers (about $1.3 billion), precious metals (about $878 million), and inorganic chemicals (about $683 million). Energy imports have almost entirely ceased.

Trump's threat of new sanctions is just a blowhard bloviating… Ending shipments of fertilizers and precious metals is not going to hurt the Russian economy one bit. Thanks to the sanctions Biden levied in 2022, Russia’s economy grew to be the fourth largest in the world as measured by purchasing power parity.

Western propaganda that the Russian economy is failing–citing current growth of 1.4%–ignores the fiscal policies that the Russian central bank put in place in 2024 to cool inflation. But those measures were only temporary, with the central bank announcing a two percent cut in interest rates late last week.

That means that Trump, if he is serious, will impose bone-crunching tariffs on China and India. Both countries appear unfazed by Trump’s bullying bluster. China in particular holds some very strong cards… Rare-earth minerals desperately needed by the US military industrial complex. I think this will be another Trump nothing-burger.

So why did Trump whittle down the deadline? One possible explanation concerns the rapid deterioration of the military situation for Ukraine. Russia is making rapid advances all along the line of contact and even Ukrainian media and social media outlets are expressing alarm. Is that what sparked Trump’s decision to shorten the time for Russia to agree to a ceasefire? Fifty day or 12 days, it does not matter. Trump has no leverage to compel Russia to agree to the ceasefire that the US and Europe want to be imposed.

Russia is going to continue with its offensive and will take more territory in the coming weeks. Russian troops are pushing north in Zaporhyzhia, moving south through Sumy and Kharkiv, and advancing to the west, having already taken territory in Dniepropetrovsk. No pressure from Washington or Europe will alter this reality.

I discussed this issue, as well as developments in West Asia, with Nima and Pepe. Following that podcast, I welcomed the Judge back from his well-deserved vacation:

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/02/2025 - 09:20

Annoyed Italian Farmers Are Now Charging Tourists To Access Instagram Hotspots

In Italy’s Dolomites, farmers are fighting back against the surge of social media–driven tourism by installing turnstiles and charging visitors €5 (about $6) to access scenic areas on private land, according to CNN. The fee applies to some of the most photographed spots in the Alps, including the Seceda ridgeline and the Drei Zinnen (Three Peaks), which have gone viral on Instagram and TikTok.

The move comes in response to a wave of tourists — sometimes numbering up to 4,000 per day — who cross private meadows to get the perfect mountain shot. “So many people come through here every day, everyone goes through our properties and leaves trash,” said Georg Rabanser, a former Italian national snowboarder and landowner, in an interview with Ladin-language magazine La Usc. “Ours was a cry for help.”

Rabanser says the goal wasn’t profit, but attention. “We expected a call from the provincial authorities. But nothing. We only read statements in the newspapers. Gossip; nothing concrete. We haven’t even received warning letters. So we’re moving forward.”

Though Italian law mandates free access to natural parks, including the Dolomites, the landowners say they haven’t faced any official pushback.

Photos of the long queues have spread across social media — ironically drawing even more tourists to the area. As Alpine Club president Carlo Zanella put it: “The media’s been talking about the turnstiles, everyone’s been talking about it. And people go where everyone else goes. We’re sheep.”

CNN reports that local tourism officials argue the issue is being exaggerated. The Santa Cristina Tourist Board, which oversees one area with turnstiles, has hired park rangers to guide tourists, restrict off-trail wandering, and prevent drone use. “Things have improved significantly,” said board president Lukas Demetz. “And even the litter problem isn’t as serious as people say. It’s significantly reduced.”

Still, other regions are following suit with their own crowd-control measures. In the Aosta Valley, private cars are now banned from mountain routes, with hikers required to take shuttle buses. Lake Braies has introduced a €40 car access fee. And in the Piedmont region, only 150 cars can park near the popular Pian del Re peat bog.

South Tyrol’s governor, Arno Kompatscher, has called on Italy’s national government to enact broader restrictions to protect delicate alpine environments and discourage locals from converting homes into short-term rentals.

As overtourism spreads across Italy, mountain communities are no longer alone in pushing back against social media–fueled travel habits.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/02/2025 - 08:45

This will be a light week for economic data.

The key report this week is the June Trade Deficit.

----- Monday, August 4th -----
2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for July.

----- Tuesday, August 5th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $67.6 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $71.5 Billion the previous month.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for July.   The consensus is for a reading of 51.5, up from 50.8.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, August 6th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 7th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week.

----- Friday, August 8th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

Exposing China's Military & Media Push In Africa

Authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

China’s growing control of African ports, particularly along the Atlantic, combined with deepening military ties and an aggressive propaganda campaign, poses an emerging threat to U.S. national security...

At a July 2025 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Air Force Lt. Gen. Dagvin Anderson warned that Africa is becoming a key battleground in global competition, with China, Russia, and terrorist groups posing increasing threats to U.S. national security.

Nominated to lead U.S. Africa Command, Anderson emphasized China’s shift from purely economic engagement to a growing military presence and aggressive information operations across the continent. He expressed particular concern over Chinese investments in African ports, especially along the Atlantic coast, which could be used to restrict U.S. access in times of conflict.

Chinese state-backed companies now have ownership stakes in roughly one-third of Africa’s 231 ports, with 78 facilities across 32 countries and a heavy concentration in West Africa, 35 compared to 17 in East Africa. Many of these ports have already been used by People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships conducting military exercises. This expanding control includes major ports in Nigeria, Tanzania, and Namibia.

A strong Chinese presence in West African ports would significantly enhance the PLAN’s access to the Atlantic, bringing it inside the U.S. security perimeter, an area far more difficult to defend than the Pacific due to fewer islands and resupply points. Africa lies just 3,000 miles from the U.S. East Coast, roughly the same distance as New York to California, meaning a Chinese resupply base on the Atlantic coast could put submarines within striking range of New York, Washington, D.C., and Atlanta.

While Chinese nuclear submarines can stay at sea for extended periods, they currently lack the ability to resupply or take on provisions in the Atlantic. Establishing a base would solve that, enabling not only sustained deployments but also pre-positioning for intelligence collection, containerized missile rearming, and disruption of U.S. or allied operations.

Since 2000, PLAN vessels have made 55 port calls across Africa, including in West African nations such as Morocco and Mauritania, demonstrating China’s intent to expand its military use of these facilities. A Chinese foothold on the African coast would give the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) a powerful platform to influence global trade and project power across both sides of the Atlantic.

Beijing has already demonstrated its willingness to convert commercial ports into military infrastructure, as evidenced by its 2018 project in Djibouti, where the state-owned China Merchants Group constructed a PLAN-exclusive base adjacent to a commercial port. Seven additional African ports, spanning both the Atlantic and the West Indian Ocean, have been identified as likely candidates for future Chinese military use.

In addition to base building, China is rapidly expanding its military-to-military cooperation in Africa. In 2000, less than 5 percent of African weapons came from China. Today, Chinese-made armored vehicles are used by 70 percent of African militaries, making China the continent’s top arms supplier. Officer training has followed a similar trend: from under 200 African officers trained in China at the turn of the century to more than 2,000 today.

Since 2006, China has conducted 20 joint military drills with African forces, steadily increasing in scale and sophistication, most notably the August 2024 land and sea exercises with Tanzania and Mozambique, and recent joint air force drills with Egypt. The following month, Beijing pledged a 1 billion yuan military grant to support African armed forces, train 6,000 personnel, and host 500 young officers for joint training, patrols, and exercises.

To make its expanding military presence in Africa more palatable, the CCP relies heavily on a coordinated propaganda campaign aimed at reshaping African perceptions. Through state-controlled media platforms such as CGTN and Xinhua, partnerships with local news outlets, journalist training programs, and satellite networks such as StarTimes, the Chinese regime promotes an image of itself as a generous, non-interfering partner, while subtly undermining the United States.

These efforts are part of Beijing’s broader “media warfare” strategy, which includes offering free or low-cost international content to African newsrooms and funding media exchanges and seminars. The China-Africa Press Center places African journalists in Chinese newsrooms for 10-month rotations where they report on CCP activities, reinforcing pro-Beijing narratives. Increasingly, the CCP relies on African journalists as the faces of its messaging, a shift from the 1990s, when Chinese reporters dominated the coverage. This tactic gives Chinese propaganda an air of local authenticity.

From ports to military training to propaganda, the CCP is working methodically to undermine the United States and achieve maritime parity. Africa has become a staging ground for Beijing’s long-term strategic ambitions, encompassing the military, economic, and ideological spheres. Unless the United States responds with a coherent counterstrategy, it risks losing critical access and influence not only in Africa but also across the Atlantic.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/02/2025 - 08:10

Tiny European Country Becomes First In EU To Impose Arms Embargo On Israel

Tiny Slovenia has become the first European Union member state to completely halt arms trade with Israel over its ongoing military operations in Gaza.

The decision was announced by Prime Minister Robert Golob following a government meeting on Thursday, and it features a ban on the transit of weapons to and from Israel. "The government of Slovenia is the first in the EU to prohibit the import, export, and transit of military equipment involving Israel," an official statement in state news agency STA indicated.

Slovenia's Prime Minister Robert Golob 

Slovenia clarified that it was taking this step on its own, and complained about a lack of unified action within the European Union due to internal disagreements on the question of policy toward Israel.

The statement from Slovenia on the new drastic arms ban focused on the spiraling humanitarian crisis based on lack of food and aid, which has resulted in at least dozens or more Palestinians dying from hunger. "It is the duty of any responsible country to act, even if that means taking the lead," the government statement said.

"We have been clear from the beginning: if the EU is not able to take concrete measures by mid-July, we will act on it ourselves in Slovenia. And that's what we did today."

However, Slovenia has for some time stopped approving any arms export licenses to Israel - a status quo which has been in effect since October 2023. The prime minister is actually threatening more punitive actions to come, targeting Israel:

"People in Gaza are dying because humanitarian aid is systemically disabled," he continued. "They are dying under ruins, with no access to drinking water, food and basic medical care. It's a total disruption of humanitarian access and conscious prevention of basic conditions for survival."

"Slovenia will always stand on the side of international law and human rights," he added. "In the coming weeks, we will prepare additional measures against the Israeli government's actions, which mean serious violations of international humanitarian law."

Slovenia, which has also been a member of NATO since 2004, is among small European states which have issued formal recognition of Palestinian statehood (done in June 2024).

Just this summer and in the past week, France, the UK, and Canada have said they plan to recognize Palestine at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly meeting in September.

Slovenia banning arms to and from Israel is much more meaningful than EU states recognizing a toothless Palestinian state with no enforceable borders as they continue to arm Israel https://t.co/GrbHIbMYPx

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) August 1, 2025

Meanwhile Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Thursday said the quiet part out loud amid an emerging diplomatic war against Israel, saying the country was in danger of becoming isolated.

Wadephul said Berlin is trying to prevent this. "Israel must always find friends, partners, and supporters in the international community. And that is currently in danger in this situation. And if there is one country that has a responsibility to prevent this, then in my view it is Germany," he told reporters on a trip to Israel.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/02/2025 - 07:35

The post Quick Thoughts on the Job Report: July Was Bad News appeared first on CEPR.

"Everyone Should Leave The EU" - AfD Head Weidel Blasts "Openly Corrupt" Brussels

Via Remix News,

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, says Germany is digging its own grave. Her words came during an interview Weidel gave to Hungary’s Patriot Extra program, covered by Mandiner.

According to the nationalist politician, the European Union has “completely degenerated,” does not represent nation states or sovereign peoples, and has now become a machine run by overpaid bureaucrats that only causes harm.

Weidel says Germany’s economic decline is rooted in domestic decisions. High energy prices, the green transition, and the phase-out of nuclear power have made German industry uncompetitive, especially the automotive industry, which she says is being deliberately destroyed by Brussels regulations.

“All the bad rules were made in Brussels,” she said, emphasizing that the ban on internal combustion engines and environmental sanctions benefit China and American companies, not European workers. According to Weidel, Germany and Europe need a free market where everyone can produce and buy what they want.

Weidel also said the German government was playing politics against the population, lying to people, and doing the opposite of what it promised. 

On Angela Merkel, the AfD leader said that she was “the first Green Chancellor, not the conservative leader of the CDU.” She also called current Chancellor Friedrich Merz a representative of the “losing side.”

Weidel contrasted Germany with Hungary, praising Viktor Orbán for his “common sense” and as a role model for national sovereignists. “I can only congratulate Viktor Orbán, Hungary is doing much better,” she said.

“Hungary is the only one that clearly stands out and says: this cannot be done with us,” she said. According to Weidel, in Germany, on the other hand, there is an unstable government that is deliberately worsening the financial situation of the population in order to make people vulnerable. 

Weidel further stated that she believes Hungarians live relatively better than Germans, compared to the country’s economic performance.

According to Weidel, “Everyone should leave the EU.”

Weidel claimed Brussels is trying to build an “artificially created political product” against Viktor Orbán in the person of opposition leader Péter Magyar to interfere in Hungary’s internal affairs. However, Péter Magyar, supported by green and woke politicians and whom Ursula von der Leyen is feeding from the palm of his hand, is doomed to failure, she said, stating that Orbán will emerge from this fight stronger. 

She sees similar interventions from Brussels in Romania and Germany, where the AfD is openly persecuted and even faces a potential ban.

Weidel was particularly critical of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whom she called “openly corrupt,” specifically commenting on the SMS agreements made for Pfizer vaccine purchases during Covid. 

“I wonder where the commissions went?” she asked, adding that Von der Leyen and the Brussels elite were “only working to line their own pockets” and that the EU’s institutional system could not be reformed but must be completely rebuilt. 

In the interview, Weidel outlined what reforms an AfD government would introduce: immediate border closure and mass deportations; social benefits reform, i.e., only those who have paid into the system would receive support; tax cuts for workers; the return of nuclear energy and cheap energy sources; lifting the ban on internal combustion engines; radical reduction of bureaucracy.

“The whole Brussels superstructure is impoverishing us all,” she stressed, adding that the German people are increasingly angry because instead of a “brave new world,” they have been given a more expensive, poorer, and more vulnerable life.

Weidel said Germany should return to the ideal of a strong, independent middle class, which Hungary represents in Europe today.

According to Weidel, the European elections and the processes in Germany also show that people are fed up with globalist, centralized power. He believes that the restoration of national sovereignty, a strong middle class, and the free market are inevitable, even in the face of Brussels. 

“The question is whether Germany can still change or will it be completely absorbed by the Brussels deep state,” she told viewers. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/02/2025 - 07:00

The post Yes, Firing the Commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a Five Alarm Fire appeared first on CEPR.

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• Volkswagen’s Secret: History forgot the horrors endured by laborers on the automaker’s massive cattle ranch in the Brazilian Amazon. But a priest had recorded it all and made a call. (Washington Post)

• The Next Thing You Smell Could Ruin Your Life: Millions of people suffer debilitating reactions in the presence of certain scents and chemicals. One scientist has been struggling for decades to understand why—as she battles the condition herself. (Wired)

• The High-Schoolers Who Just Beat the World’s Smartest AI Models: Google DeepMind and OpenAI won gold medals at the math Olympics—but these American teenagers still got higher scores. Will this be the last time humans outperform AI?  (Wall Street Journal)

• The Man With the Hot Hand: The dizzying rise, brief fall, and white-hot resurgence of Abstract’s 34-year-old Founder, Ramtin Naimi. (Colossus)

• Where are Vacation Homes Located in the US? As of 2023, the US has around 142.3 million housing units: roughly one home for every 2.4 people in the country. The vast majority of these homes – 127.5 million – are occupied. The remaining 14.8 million homes are vacant. Of these, around 4.8 million homes, or around 3.5% of the total, are vacant because they’re seasonal, or vacation, homes. (Construction Physics)

• Britain’s spies-for-hire are running wild: Lucrative, freewheeling — and largely unregulated — private intelligence and security firms are booming in the land of James Bond and John le Carré. (Politico)

• The Trump administration attack dog you should pay attention to: Bill Pulte started with viral cash giveaways, public family feuding, and meme stocks. Now he’s targeting Jerome Powell and Adam Schiff. (Vox)

• How NASA Engineered Its Own Decline: The agency once projected America’s loftiest ideals. Then it ceded its ambitions to Elon Musk. (The Atlantic)

• 4.6 Billion Years On, the Sun Is Having a Moment: In the past two years, without much notice, solar power has begun to truly transform the world’s energy system. (New Yorker)

• Why Exercise Is a Miracle Drug: We’re Never Going to Invent a Drug That’s Better Than Exercise. (Derek Thompson)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Erik Hirsch, Co-CEO Hamiliton Lane, which manages or advises on $958 billion in client assets. Previously, he was an M&A banker at Brown Brothers Harriman, and a municipal financial consultant with Public Financial Management, specializing in asset securitization, strategic consulting and sport stadium financings.

 

Bitcoin Holdings By Country

Source: @valaafshar

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Building Eurasia's New Fortress

Authored by Sean Ring via DailyReckoning.com,

For over a century, two dead advisors have shaped the way great powers view the world.

On one side, we have Alfred Thayer Mahan—the American naval officer who believed sea power determined global supremacy. According to Mahan, controlling the oceans means controlling trade. If you control trade, you control wealth. If you control wealth… well, you get the picture.

On the other side is Halford Mackinder, the British geographer who argued the exact opposite. Forget the seas, he said. Whoever controls the “World Island”—Eurasia—controls the world. Railways, rivers, pipelines, and land empires are what count. Not frigates and aircraft carriers.

Mahan and Mackinder are no longer with us, but their ideas continue to influence the world today.

And we’re watching it unfold.

It’s Mahan’s World… For Now.

The United States and the United Kingdom—Mahan’s spiritual children—have long benefited from an ocean-based order. Ruling the waves built their prosperity and power. The British Empire’s reach was maritime. The U.S. Navy now patrols every major sea lane. The dollar reigns supreme because oil, commodities, and trade settle in greenbacks. That world—the Mahan world—is why Americans live like kings while land powers like Russia and China have spent decades playing catch-up.

But Mahan’s world has limits. Especially when you try to keep your rivals bottled up in theirs.

That’s precisely what the U.S. has tried to do with China.

China’s Story

The First and Second Island Chains—stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Guam and Indonesia—are like maritime prison bars hemming China in. They prevent Beijing from turning its navy into a global force and restrict its access to the open Pacific. And that’s no accident. It’s U.S. policy.

So what did China do?

Simple: they pivoted landward. Hence, the Belt and Road Initiative. If the Americans and their allies can dominate the seas, the Chinese reasoned, then the answer lies in dominating the land. Ports, railways, roads, pipelines, dry docks, fiber optic cables, and power grids. Not just in Asia, but across Eurasia, the Middle East, Africa, and even into Europe.

What Mackinder once called the “Heartland” is now becoming a Chinese-funded construction site.

Russia’s Story

And then there’s Russia.

After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the West slapped Moscow with every sanction it could think of. No dollars. No euros. No Swift. No tank parts. No semiconductor chips. No comfy Davos forums. In effect, the West attempted to sever Russia’s ties to the global economy. Cut it off from the ocean-based system.

And how did Russia respond?

They doubled down on Mackinder. On land power. On rivers, specifically.

If you watch the YouTube video How Russia Plans to Rule Eurasia by River—and I strongly suggest you do—it outlines Moscow’s plan to build out an internal network of rivers, ports, and rail links that integrate the entire Eurasian landmass. The Volga. The Don. The Ob. The Lena. Not names we normally associate with global trade, but maybe we should.

Chinese Capital and Russian Geography

What’s emerging is a strategic marriage between Chinese capital and Russian geography.

One has money and ambition. The other has territory, rivers, and a pressing need to stay relevant. Together, they’re laying the foundation for a new continental infrastructure—one that’s largely immune to the U.S. Navy, the EU’s bureaucracy, or whatever sanctions the White House dreams up next.

Think about what that means.

New trade corridors will be built from China to Europe, bypassing the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal. Russian river ports will feed Chinese rail lines into Kazakhstan, Iran, and Turkey. They’ll have pipelines that carrier groups can’t blockade. Their digital infrastructure routed through friendly capitals, not Silicon Valley or Brussels.

A Mackinder world. Built in plain sight.

Potential Outcomes

So, where does this go?

There are a few scenarios.

• Scenario A: coexistence. The ocean powers maintain dominance over maritime trade, but the Eurasian system becomes a serious, functioning complement. You get a multipolar logistics world—ships and ports meet trains and pipes.

• Scenario B: Eurasian ascendancy. The land routes become faster, cheaper, and more secure. Europe, sick of American lectures, cozies up to Asia via Russian and Chinese connections. The sea-based West is beginning to resemble the old system. The future is inland.

• Scenario C: confrontation. The U.S. and the UK start sabotaging, sanctioning, or undermining Eurasian projects. Think pipeline explosions, proxy wars, targeted sanctions on Belt and Road nodes. It gets ugly.

• Scenario D: synthesis. Everyone accepts that the world now runs on multiple systems. Sea and land. Sanctions and swaps. Rail and sail. You need to hedge your trade routes, just as you hedge your portfolio.

Wrap Up

For now, Mahan’s world still rules. The U.S. Navy is unmatched. The dollar is still king. But the Heartland is stirring. The land powers are done playing defense. They’re building rivers, rails, roads—and they’re doing it without asking Washington for permission.

And if they succeed, Mackinder might finally get the last laugh.

Even if most Americans still have no idea who he was.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 23:25

Russian Drone Found At Military Base In Lithuania Which Hosts NATO Troops

A suspected errant Russian drone has breached a NATO country's airspace this week - though certainly not for the first time, and is setting off the proverbial alarm within Lithuania's military

The drone was discovered crashed at a Lithuanian military training area after entering the country’s airspace from Belarus, after first being spotted early Monday morning, Lithuania’s army reported on Friday. The military first tracked in on radar over Belarusian airspace, near the border.

LRT: A Russian "Gerbera" drone that entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus found on August 1, 2025.

Several area residents actually captured footage of it flying over Vilnius before it vanished, and later was found on the ground at the military training base.

"It’s likely the same drone that breached our airspace on Monday. Initial analysis suggests it may be a Gerbera model, though this is still being confirmed," the Lithuanian military said in the statement.

At least one Lithuanian lawmaker has portrayed the drone breach incident as intentional, also given it ended up at a military site.

"This looks like a provocation," said Mindaugas Sinkevičius, interim leader of Lithuania's ruling Social Democratic Party, while describing that the sensitive area where it was found leads to the conclusion that the breach was on purpose or a test of sorts.

It has been identified as a Gerbera drone, a type which Russia's military often utilizes as a decoy to mislead or distract air defense systems in Ukraine.

Interestingly, the Gaižiūnai training grounds near Rukla - where it was recovered - actually hosts a NATO multinational battalion, regional reports say.

Via BBC

This isn't the first time this has happened - and a Russian drone even breached Lithuanian airspace earlier this summer.

Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Latvia have also at various times seen their airspaces breached by errant drones - for example with a more dangerous Russian Shahed-type suicide drone having crashed in Latvia in September 2024.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 23:00

Needed: Stupid Anonymous

Authored by Stephen Kritz via The Brownstone Institute,

For many years, large segments of the American public were perfectly willing to go on Jerry Springer and admit to the world that they abused their spouses, molested their children, tortured their pets, and consumed every illicit drug they could get their hands on. Beginning with Alcoholics Anonymous, a plethora of Anonymous organizations has come on the scene to deal with these issues, along with an ever-increasing number of other social and psychological maladies. However, there is not one Anonymous chapter where a person can get in front of a supportive group and state: “Good evening. My name is Steve, and I’m stupid!” Don’t believe me? Google it! 

For the purposes of this discussion, I’ll use the term “stupid” based on actions, not intellect…or as Forrest Gump was known to say: “Stupid is as stupid does!” Getting people to admit that they’ve behaved stupidly is a very heavy lift. Just as Social Security has been called the “third rail” of American politics, admitting stupidity is the third rail of the American psyche. In addition, I have found that stupid actions tend to be based on rigid ideology or fear, both of which are hard to overcome. 

Let’s start with stupidity due to rigid ideology. Given that the receipts documenting the Obama administration’s efforts to carry out a “soft coup” are now in the public domain, at least half the population is going to need Stupid Anonymous services badly. I must point out that the use of the word “soft” when talking about a coup is absurd. It’s like telling a person that you just kicked in the crotch that it was an accident, expecting the person’s pain to immediately subside. It’s not happening! An attempted coup is a very serious crime, no matter the means used to carry it out or its level of success, and there must be full accountability. 

I find it interesting that RussiaGate, which has now been definitively demonstrated to have been nothing but a hoax, was thought by many of its believers to be worse than Watergate. Frankly, I believe that those who, to this day, continue to believe that RussiaGate was a real scandal are just acting stupidly! While I have no issue using Watergate as the gold standard by which government corruption is adjudicated, it needs to be assessed in proper context. 

At the time of the Watergate hearings in 1973 and 1974, I had just finished college. PBS carried gavel-to-gavel coverage, and I listened to dozens upon dozens of hours of testimony. A year earlier, I had cast my first vote for George McGovern. My relatives, all of them Jewish, kept pointing out that almost all of Nixon’s partners in crime had German last names. 

As such, I was surrounded by people who were very fearful about Nixon’s plans for the country. I had similar concerns. In short, I was no Richard Nixon fan, and I believed that he got what he deserved. In reality, however, our Constitutional republic was never in jeopardy, and the country continued to function as it would have had the scandal not occurred. Despite this, a sitting President was forced to resign, approximately 60 people were indicted, of which almost 50 were convicted or pleaded guilty, and about two dozen were sent to prison. 

I have no issue with this level of accountability. Therefore, if we’re going to use Watergate as the gold standard, the perpetrators of the coup should receive punishment that is at least an order of magnitude more severe, given the fact that our Constitutional republic WAS placed in jeopardy. It was only due to Trump’s tenacity and fortitude, and the Hand of the LORD (most obviously in the deflection of the assassin’s bullet) that we are now in a position to turn the ship of state around.

There are those who will tell themselves that because the coup didn’t succeed, and Trump was legitimately ousted from office via the vote in 2020 (which raises a whole series of other questions that I won’t cover here), we’re okay, and our Constitutional republic prevailed. Not by a long shot! The fact is, the four years of the Biden administration were reminiscent of the last four years of Brezhnev’s leadership of the former Soviet Union from 1978-82. 

We had an obviously senile leader who was led by the nose by an unelected Politburo (a term I had used from the beginning of Biden’s presidency that is being uttered with some frequency in recent days). We had a Stalinist Dept of Justice (i.e., you show me the man and I’ll show you the crime), our Intelligence agencies were run by a bunch of Putin/KGB wannabes, and our news outlets were reminiscent of Pravda. As a result, the entire fabric of American life was in tatters going into the election of 2024.

I’d hate to think of what would have happened to this country had Kamala Harris won the 2024 election.

I’ll point out that while Trump won in an Electoral College landslide, if a mere 125,000 voters (out of approximately 16 million votes cast) in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania had switched their votes, Harris would have won all three of those states, and would have reached 270 electoral votes. 

Clearly, there were no supply chain issues when it came to the stupidity of those who fervently pushed the proposition that there was nothing to see here! Hopefully, the new folks that are in charge of our government agencies will provide justice with the appropriate level of accountability, and enough Stupid Anonymous chapters will be in operation to deal with the amount of psychological trauma that will need to be addressed. 

The current effort to deflect everything to the Jeffrey Epstein files in order to bring down Trump will not bear fruit. Once again, this will be shown to be just plain stupid. In my opinion, Trump’s leadership style has shown itself to be the second coming of the only other President born in New York City, Theodore Roosevelt. Eerily, Roosevelt also survived an assassin’s bullet during the election campaign of 1912, when he was running for a third term. Thank the LORD for overly long handwritten speeches kept in a left breast pocket! Had the speech been about 15 minutes shorter, the bullet would likely have been fatal. As such, Trump, by proxy, is already on Mount Rushmore! Putting the foregoing together; I’d say that those who continue to challenge President Trump are acting against the best interests of the country…and stupidly.

I’ll now move on to stupidity due to fear, which was the initial tactic used by those responsible for the disastrous Covid response. What’s going to happen when the true extent of the Covid atrocities are revealed? It’ll make the coup attempt against Trump, bad as it was, look like child’s play! While many of us are legitimately concerned about the number of terrorist sleeper cells that have been injected into the country via open borders, what about the number of sleeper cells that have been injected into the arms of most of the US population? There are already indications that long-term consequences are likely. 

Ominously, a very recent study from the Czech Republic showed that the successful conception rate of women who received as few as one Covid shot prior to trying to get pregnant is significantly lower than those who didn’t take any Covid shots. 

I’m also concerned that the flat-to-declining life expectancy we’ve experienced in this country over the past decade, which just so happens to correlate rather closely with the timeline of full implementation of ObamaCare, will be further exacerbated by having taken the Covid shots. To have not considered these possibilities from the outset of the Covid pandemic is just another example of stupidity, in this case fed largely by fear. 

Staying with life expectancy for a moment longer; beginning in 2015, we had three consecutive years of declining life expectancy in the US. The last time this had happened was during the flu pandemic of 1918-20. You’ll recall that the 2015-17 declines were attributed to “deaths of despair.” I thought it was also due to the obesity epidemic finally catching up with us. It was also found that excess all-cause mortality with decreased life expectancy occurred in 2021, the first year of the Covid shots, and not in 2020, when viral virulence was at its peak. 

While looking at the most recently posted life expectancy graphs, I couldn’t help noticing that the three consecutive year decline is not there, and the Covid-related drop in life expectancy is in 2020; not 2021. Experience tells me that something sinister is in the works, and the stupid among us are being set up for the next scam that will lead them to behave – you guessed it – stupidly. 

In sum; our work is cut out for us. Should stupidity prevail one more time, either from ideological rigidity or fear, our efforts to get back to our Constitutional republic will permanently end with Trump’s second term as President. I suggest we revive Operation Warp Speed in order to get Stupid Anonymous chapters up and running as quickly as possible.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 22:35

America's Economic Engines: The Biggest Industry In Every State

Ever wondered what fuels each state’s economy? In most cases, the biggest industry is either real estate or manufacturing.

This Markets in a Minute graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Jenna Ross, in partnership with Terzo, highlights the industry contributing the most to GDP in every state.

The Biggest Industry Ranking

Real estate powers the economy in over half of states. This is largely because the Bureau of Economic Analysis treats homeowners as landlords renting to themselves, and includes the rental value in GDP. If economists did not include this value, a jump in the homeownership rate would cause GDP to drop. 

On top of this, the real estate industry includes rent paid by renters, property taxes, construction, remodeling, and brokers’ fees.

State/District Biggest Industry Alabama Manufacturing Alaska Transportation & Warehousing Arizona Real Estate Arkansas Manufacturing California Real Estate Colorado Real Estate Connecticut Real Estate Delaware Finance & Insurance District of Columbia Government Florida Real Estate Georgia Real Estate Hawaii Real Estate Idaho Real Estate Illinois Real Estate Indiana Manufacturing Iowa Manufacturing Kansas Manufacturing Kentucky Manufacturing Louisiana Manufacturing Maine Real Estate Maryland Real Estate Massachusetts Professional & Technical Services Michigan Manufacturing Minnesota Real Estate Mississippi Manufacturing Missouri Real Estate Montana Real Estate Nebraska Finance & Insurance Nevada Real Estate New Hampshire Real Estate New Jersey Real Estate New Mexico Real Estate New York Finance & Insurance North Carolina Manufacturing North Dakota Mining, Oil & Gas Ohio Manufacturing Oklahoma Government Oregon Real Estate Pennsylvania Real Estate Rhode Island Real Estate South Carolina Real Estate South Dakota Finance & Insurance Tennessee Manufacturing Texas Real Estate Utah Real Estate Vermont Real Estate Virginia Real Estate Washington Information West Virginia Mining, Oil & Gas Wisconsin Manufacturing Wyoming Mining, Oil & Gas

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for the 2024 calendar year. Some industry names have been shortened including real estate and rental and leasing; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; federal civilian and state and local government; and professional, scientific, and technical services.

In second place, manufacturing is the biggest industry in 13 states. Its prominence is heavily concentrated in the Midwest and the South thanks to the long history of the sector in some states, large plots of available land, and government support.

Rare Economic Leaders

Outside of real estate and manufacturing, some industries are the top GDP driver in a much smaller number of states.

For instance, finance and insurance is the biggest industry in New York, Delaware, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Over half of publicly-traded U.S. companies incorporate in Delaware thanks to balanced and flexible corporate laws, a business-friendly environment, and a respected legal community. In South Dakota, financial services are drawn to the state’s business-friendly taxes and trust laws that can shield families from inheritance taxes indefinitely. 

Mining and oil and gas creates the biggest economic output in three states. North Dakota is the third-largest crude oil producer in the country, while Wyoming and West Virginia are America’s top two coal producers.

The government is the biggest GDP driver in D.C. and Oklahoma. Lastly, professional and technical services (Massachusetts), information (Washington), and transportation and warehousing (Alaska) were the top industry in one state each.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 22:10

Judge Blocks DHS Bid To End Protected Status For Immigrants From Honduras, Nicaragua, Nepal

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on July 31 blocked the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) from ending temporary protected status (TPS) for hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Nepal, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

TPS is a designation that allows individuals from countries affected by armed conflict, natural disasters, or other extraordinary events to remain in the United States.

In a 37-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Trina Thompson of the U.S. District Court in Northern California ordered that protections for immigrants from those countries remain in place until the next hearing on Nov. 18.

Thompson stated that the plaintiffs had presented sufficient evidence showing that DHS’s decision to terminate TPS designations for Nepal, Honduras, and Nicaragua was predetermined, rather than based on an “objective review” of conditions such as the impact of natural disasters that hit those countries.

While DHS had argued that extending TPS for those countries would undermine U.S. foreign policy and national interests, Thompson said the agency failed to identify which interests were at stake.

“The freedom to live fearlessly, the opportunity of liberty, and the American dream. That is all plaintiffs seek. Instead, they are told to atone for their race, leave because of their names, and purify their blood. The Court disagrees,” the judge stated.

Thompson stated that immigrants from the three nations could face irreparable harm if TPS is terminated, including loss of employment, health insurance, and family separation. The government had argued that they could apply for lawful status.

People are making fun of this moronic opinion for being written at the level of a 9th grade essay, but I'm just glad it clearly wasn't written using AI. Call me Mr. Brightside. https://t.co/PE4r9Kormr

— Jeff Blehar is *BOX OFFICE POISON* (@EsotericCD) August 1, 2025

The plaintiffs are TPS holders from Honduras, Nepal, and Nicaragua.

They alleged that DHS’s decision to end the program violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Fifth Amendment.

Jessica Bansal, attorney at the National Day Laborer Organization, which represents the plaintiffs, said in a statement that they welcomed the court’s decision to postpone what they described as “cruel and illegal” termination of TPS designations.

“This ruling gives us strength, affirms the power of organizing, and reminds us what’s at stake: the right to stay in the only home many of us have ever known,” Teofilo Martinez, a Honduran TPS holder and one of the plaintiffs, said in the statement.

DHS did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Honduras and Nicaragua were designated for TPS in 1999 following the devastation caused by Hurricane Mitch. The designations for both nations had remained in place due to disruptions to living conditions.

DHS stated in July that TPS designations for Honduras and Nicaragua would end 60 days after the agency published its notices in the Federal Register on July 7, noting that the countries’ current conditions no longer warrant protection under the program. The agency estimated that about 72,000 Hondurans and 4,000 Nicaraguans are covered by TPS.

“Temporary Protected Status was never meant to last a quarter of a century,” a DHS spokesperson stated on July 7. “The impacts of a natural disaster impacting Nicaragua in 1999 no longer exist. The environmental situation has improved enough that it is safe enough for Nicaraguan citizens to return home. This decision restores integrity in our immigration system and ensures that TPS remains temporary.”

Nepal was granted TPS in 2015 after a major earthquake that affected a third of its population. The designation was later extended and, according to DHS, covered about 12,700 Nepalese nationals, of whom 5,500 have since become lawful permanent residents in the United States.

DHS planned to terminate Nepal’s TPS on Aug. 5, citing improvements in the country’s disaster preparedness and response capacity.

Honduran and Nicaraguan nationals had been advised to use the CBP Home app to report their departure from the United States and take advantage of a self-deportation process that includes a complimentary plane ticket, a $1,000 exit bonus, and an opportunity to legally migrate to the United States in the future, according to statements issued by DHS.

On May 19, the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration could move forward with ending TPS for more than 300,000 Venezuelan nationals, potentially paving the way for other TPS terminations to occur.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 21:45

Leftist Nonprofit Head Spills Beans About Secret "Notification System" To Help Illegals Evade ICE Arrest 

The Department of Justice has been tightening the noose around the Vera Institute of Justice, a leftist, billionaire-backed nonprofit that has long acted as a shield for illegal aliens. The DOJ has slashed millions in taxpayer funding to the rogue nonprofit, which is reportedly operating a real-time alert system designed to track ICE raids and warn criminal illegal aliens to avoid certain areas and evade arrest.

By now, the DOJ has likely seen, or at least we can hope, the latest undercover investigation by James O'Keefe's team, which features a secretly recorded interview with Santiago Mueckay, associate director of Vera's Advancing Universal Representation initiative. 

In the footage, Mueckay openly admits to the undercover reporter that leftist billionaires are bankrolling Vera's operations. 

"It's usually like foundations, like the Gates Foundation, or Jeff Bezos, or some of these huge philanthropists, who have millions of dollars," Mueckay said in the video. 

Mueckay shared information with the reporter that points to Vera creating a database monitoring ICE trends nationwide to alert criminal illegal aliens about impending raids. 

"We know which states are being targeted… If you see someone [from ICE], you can text the group and it'll go on a website, so people [illegals] can avoid the area," Mueckay said, adding, "We [Vera] keep track of everything that's happening with ICE."

BREAKING: Vera Institute Director Confesses Non-Profit ‘Tips Illegals Off’ Regarding ICE Whereabouts Using Secret “Notification Systems” In Order to “Avoid the Area”

“We know which states are being targeted… If you see someone [from ICE], you can text the group and it’ll go on… pic.twitter.com/ypeaHhud98

— James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) July 31, 2025

Mueckay has since had his social media accounts, such as LinkedIn and X, scrubbed from the internet. 

DELETED: Santiago Mueckay (@santi_mueckay), Associate Director of Advocacy for the Vera Institute of Justice, has taken down his X profile following the release of OMG's undercover footage of Mueckay revealing Vera ‘tips illegals off’ regarding ICE whereabouts using secret… https://t.co/gtsJuMKbrx pic.twitter.com/WYwiSwdj4p

— James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) July 31, 2025

O'Keefe published a statement from Vera, denying that the leftist billionaires are funding their "immigration work."

Meanwhile, on the Gates Foundation's website... 

According to its charter and mission statements, the nonprofit claims to work toward: "Securing equal justice, ending mass incarceration, and strengthening families and communities."

However, in practice, Vera has become a known supporter of illegal aliens, most notably by tipping off illegal aliens, which only undermines national security and puts public safety at risk. Let's not forget these databases could be used by 'civil terrorism' agents to attack ICE agents.

The Protest-Industrial-Complex Isn't Peaceful, It's "Civil Terrorism" ... https://t.co/BRpYReXJz3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 18, 2025

Here’s how One City Rising co-founder and strategist Jason Curtis Anderson views Vera: 

The thing about this story that bothers me the most isn't just the disregard for federal immigration law—it's the open willingness to put American law enforcement officers in direct danger. When an organization like the Vera Institute of Justice leaks information about ICE operations to illegal immigrants, they are not just undermining public safety—they're actively enabling potentially violent individuals, including transnational gang members like Tren de Aragua and cartel operatives, to prepare for or evade arrest.

These aren't hypotheticals. ICE officers are already seeing an 830% increase in violent attacks—and it's only getting worse. We know that hundreds of gang members and nearly 300 individuals on the terrorist watchlist have been caught at the border, and many more have likely slipped through. Yet somehow, the narrative pushed by groups like Vera flips the script: the person resisting arrest is automatically treated as a victim, while the officer doing their job is painted as the enemy. 

A quick look at Vera's 990s shows major funding from the same foundations—Tides, Ford, Open Society—that have created a billion-dollar advocacy ecosystem bent on dismantling law enforcement under the guise of reform. This isn't reform—it's subversion, and it empowers criminal networks while leaving American communities and the officers who serve them to deal with the actual dangers.

The big question is: Why subvert national security? Is it to exploit illegal aliens as cheap, disposable labor for the billionaire-controlled globalist corporations, or maybe to stack future elections with blue votes? Whatever the motive, this isn't 'America First', it's 'America Last.' And it puts law-abiding citizens' lives at risk as this nonprofit tips off illegals for their leftist billionaire friends.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 21:20

Japan Creates Frankenstein Bird Flu Virus With New Immunological Traits

Via JonFleetwood.com,

According to a new study published last week in NPJ Vaccines, Japanese researchers engineered an entirely new strain of bird flu, combining the genetic material of two separate wild viruses to create what they call Vac-3: a pathogen that is “a reassortant virus between A/duck/Hokkaido/101/2004 (H5N3) and A/duck/Hokkaido/262/2004 (H6N1).”

This lab-built virus—A/duck/Hokkaido/Vac-3/2007 (H5N1)—was never observed in nature.

It was artificially assembled, grown in eggs, concentrated, and inactivated with formalin to become the whole-particle vaccine used in long-term testing on nonhuman primates.

The new study comes after NIH-funded researchers at the University of Georgia, Mount Sinai, and Texas Biomed were caught engineering lab-made H5N1 bird flu viruses—one of which killed 100% of exposed mammals—using synthetic DNA constructs and then deliberately infecting live dairy cows, all under the same $59 million federal contract that has also been tied to mammal-adapted, drug-resistant strain development.

Japan is also working with U.S. scientists on other projects to build lab-made horse-human influenza hybrids that replicate 100 times faster than natural strains using aborted fetal cells engineered with the cancer-linked SV40 virus, also under the banner of vaccine development.

All of these developments raise fears that another man-made pandemic is on the horizon, as Congress, the White House, the Department of Energy, the FBI, and the CIA have acknowledged that a lab-related incident involving gain-of-function research is most likely the origin of COVID-19.

An Engineered Virus with New Properties

The new Japanese paper highlights that this bird flu Frankenvirus triggered significantly stronger immune responses than existing flu vaccines.

It did so by retaining its full genetic structure, including viral RNA, which stimulated toll-like receptor 7 (TLR7) and a cascade of innate immune activation.

“WPVs contain single-stranded viral RNAs that stimulate innate immune receptors such as toll-like receptor 7,” the authors write.

This means the lab-built virus was left fully intact so it could shock the immune system into overdrive, triggering a much stronger reaction than normal flu shots.

Unlike conventional “split” vaccines, which separate viral proteins from RNA, Japan’s whole-particle vaccine (WPV) preserved the virus’s full anatomy.

This allowed it to activate dendritic cells, induce interferon-producing T cells, and stimulate somatic hypermutation—a powerful, but risky, rewiring of the immune system.

In short, the new virus didn’t just train the immune system—it reprogrammed it.

Gain-of-Function Without Calling It That

While the researchers don’t use the phrase “gain-of-function” that’s effectively what this is: the creation of a chimeric virus with novel immunological features.

The Vac-3 strain was not isolated in the wild.

It was constructed by merging influenza genes from unrelated alleged viruses, giving the final product new, enhanced abilities—especially in triggering memory immune responses.

A White House Executive Order from May 2025 defines “dangerous gain-of-function research” as scientific work on infectious agents that can cause disease by enhancing their pathogenicity or transmissibility.

Importantly, the Order explicitly includes research that can:

• “[disrupt] beneficial immunological response or the effectiveness of an immunization against the agent or toxin” (meaning altering how the immune system responds to the virus), and,

• “[enhance] the susceptibility of a human host population to the agent or toxin.”

This means that GoF research includes altering the virus in ways that affect the immune response—either by weakening it or by increasing the harm caused through immune interaction.

So, engineering a virus to produce a stronger or otherwise altered immune response in hosts falls under this definition because it modifies the virus’s interaction with host immunity, which could have significant health consequences.

Biosecurity Risks Ignored

Researchers infected macaques with a human-lethal strain of H5N1 five years after vaccination with Vac-3 to test long-term immunity.

The challenge virus—A/Vietnam/UT3040/2004 (H5N1)—was said to have been isolated from a patient who died from the infection.

This raises serious biosafety concerns.

The experiment involves:

• Genetic engineering of a virus that never existed before

• Testing it on nonhuman primates

• Challenging them with a highly lethal H5N1 strain in a BSL-3 lab

This is gain-of-function-adjacent research, cloaked in vaccine development.

Why This Matters

As avian influenza outbreaks spread across continents and headlines warn of a possible H5N1 human pandemic, it’s critical to ask:

How many of these outbreaks are caused by wild strains, and how many involve viruses manufactured for vaccine research?

Governments and scientific institutions continue to play with viral fire, creating unnatural pathogens and injecting them into animals to test vaccines that may never see approval.

The result is a growing infrastructure of high-stakes, high-risk bioengineering, all under the banner of public health—without public awareness or consent.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 20:55

Mysterious Orange Figure Spotted Outside Jeffrey Epstein's Cell Night Before His Death: Report

An unidentified orange object seen in the surveillance video near the jail cell of deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein on the evening before his death has prompted a flurry of questions from forensic experts.

The pixelated shape, first witnessed by CBS News, is seen shifting towards Epstein’s cell block at the Metropolitan Correctional Center around 10:40 p.m. According to federal investigators, the object was a corrections officer “carrying linen or inmate clothing.” However, experts told CBS News that it could in fact be an inmate wearing a jumpsuit.

“Based on the limited video, it’s more likely a person in an [orange] uniform,” Conor McCourt, forensic video expert, said in a statement to CBS.

“To say that there’s no way that someone could get to that, the stairs up to his room, without being seen is false,” Jim Safford, another forensic expert, told the news network.

Jeffrey Epstein was discovered deceased in his cell on August 10, 2019. An official autopsy, corroborated by a joint investigation from the Department of Justice and FBI, concluded that the disgraced financier died by suicide through hanging.

This illustration shows a path from the entrance to the Special Housing Unit common area to the stairs leading up to Epstein's cell. Only a narrow portion of the staircase could be seen in video released by federal officials. CBS News

In a statement to CBS News, the Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General said the footage does not change its conclusion on Epstein’s death.

“Our comprehensive assessment of the circumstances over the weeks, days, and hours before Epstein’s death included the effects of the longstanding, chronic staffing crisis in the [Bureau of Prisons] and the BOP’s failure to provide and maintain quality camera coverage within its facilities,” the statement to the outlet read. “As CBS notes, nothing in its analysis changed or modified the OIG’s conclusions or recommendations.”

Conor McCourt, a retired NYPD sergeant and forensic video expert, told CBS News, "Based on the limited video, it's more likely it's a person in an [orange] uniform."

A cursor and a menu appear on screen and the video is sped up. 

The Justice Department said the FBI seized the prison's digital video recorder system, or DVR, containing the raw footage five days after Epstein's death. When federal officials released the jail video, they attested that it was "raw footage," but the presence of a cursor and onscreen menu raise questions about that. Experts told CBS News those images indicate the video was likely a screen recording rather than an export directly from a DVR system. -CBS News

A cursor can be seen on the image of the garbage can in this closeup.

Earlier July, the joint DOJ-FBI memo declared an “exhaustive review” of evidence from Epstein’s death definitively ruled out murder.

“After a thorough investigation, FBI investigators concluded that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide in his cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York City on August 10, 2019,” the memo reads.

The agencies also brazenly denied the existence of a “client list” tied to Epstein, directly contradicting earlier remarks by Attorney General Pam Bondi. Bondi had previously suggested on Fox News that such a list was “sitting on my desk” for review, igniting speculation about Epstein’s possible blackmailing of globalist elites.

This illustration shows the location of Jeffrey Epstein's cell, in red. The common area of the Special Housing Unit is at the center. CBS News

The memo has sparked outrage among President Donald Trump’s fiercest supporters, with Tucker Carlson and Laura Loomer leading the charge in demanding accountability.

Trump has repeatedly sought to dismiss the scandal, accusing Democrats of fabricating a hoax around Epstein to thwart his agenda.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 20:30

"This Is BS, Plain And Simple": Democrats Sue To Gain Unlimited Access To Federal Facilities

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Democratic members are again claiming that they can demand access to any federal facilities without approval or even notice to a given agency.

We saw previously how Rep.  LaMonica McIver stormed an ICE facility and allegedly assaulted an officer.  She and others claimed that they had the right of entry without the pre-approval of the agency. Now, after another attempted entry at an ICE facility in Baltimore, an array of Democratic members have sued over their denial. The lawsuit is, in my view,  fundamentally flawed, but the members appear to be hoping for another obliging judge.

Both sides could be adopting Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s position outside of the ICE facility that “This is BS, plain and simple.”

This week, Van Hollen and several other House and Senate Democrats showed up in Baltimore at the Fallon Federal Building and demanded entry. The group included Sen. Angela Alsobrooks and four members of Maryland’s House delegation: Reps. Glenn Ivey, Johnny Olszewski, Sarah Elfreth and Kweisi Mfume. They then carried out a brief sit-in outside of the door and Van Hollen even objected that the sign said “Welcome,” but they were not welcomed.

As with McIver, the Democrats insisted that they could just show up at any federal office or facility and demand access as a matter of oversight authority. If that were the case, members could barge into any executive office from the White House to the weather service without warning or approval. No court has ever recognized such authority since it would eviscerate the inherent powers of the Executive Branch in our tripartite constitutional system.

The complaint offers a jumbled collection of claims and is poorly conceived and crafted, in my view.

The most relevant seems to be Section 527(a) of the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024 (Public Law 118–47), which states that:

“None of the funds appropriated or otherwise made available to the Department of Homeland Security by this Act may be used to prevent…a Member of Congress…from entering, for the purpose of conducting oversight, any facility operated by or for the Department of Homeland Security used to detain or otherwise house aliens.”

The Fiscal Year 2024 Appropriations Act also included a provision that states “the Department of Homeland Security may require that a request be made at least 24 hours in advance of an intent to enter a facility described in subsection (a).”

First, even if constitutional, this provision only applies to facilities that are used to “detain or other house aliens.” The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has contested that status in past protests. Second, the law cannot, and arguably does not, give carte blanche for instant access. An agency can demand notice to allow it to protect the security and safety of personnel and visitors. DHS can argue that it is not denying entrance so long as they are given notice in advance.

The issue is not the right to inspect but the right to instant access. Of course, the members filed in Baltimore and may hope for a judge who is more accommodating than scrutinizing on authority.

The members could argue that oversight, at times, requires inspections without prior warning to prevent the loss of evidence or agency efforts to conceal poor conditions. However, if the Congress can force such immediate access to ICE facilities, it could presumably demand such access on any federal property. All agencies are subject to the oversight of one or more congressional committees. That sweeping authority runs against the grain of Article II and can create dangerous and obstructive elements for federal officials.

Courts are tasked with reading laws narrowly to avoid such constitutional questions. The question is what constitutes “preventing” under the law. The Administration is not denying access, just requiring advance notice.

This sets up a conflict between Article I and Article II authority. The Administration will argue that immediate and unrestricted access to any ICE facility intrudes on the ability to exercise executive authority. In my view, there must be some area for reasonable limitations on the exercise of oversight authority. What is absolutely clear is that members cannot seek, as did Rep. McIver to force their way into facilties.

Here is the lawsuit: Neguse v. ICE

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 20:05

Witkoff Visits Gaza To Investigate Aid Crisis, Hamas Dismisses 'Staged' Photo Op

US envoy Steve Witkoff has made an unprecedented visit to Gaza on Friday in order to personally inspect humanitarian aid sites and assess the growing humanitarian crisis.

Under Israeli security, Witkoff entered the southern Gaza city of Rafah to visit a a US-backed aid distribution site run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) - which is protected by American security contractors. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee is also present, as was previewed by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt at a Thursday press briefing.

Ambassador Mike Huckabee/X

"Tomorrow, special envoy Witkoff and Ambassador Huckabee will be traveling into Gaza to inspect the current distribution sites and secure a plan to deliver more food and meet with local Gazans to hear firsthand about this dire situation on the ground," Leavitt had said.

Witkoff says he is going to brief the president based on his fact-finding mission in the strip amid growing international pressure, and after the UN's human rights arm had publicized that as of mid-july 674 Palestinians had been killed "in the vicinity of GHF sites."

Huckabee and Witkoff's statements have so far been sparce on details but have been generally positive, despite most of Gaza having been leveled and with the majority of Palestinians internally displaced and with many starving.

"We received briefings from the IDF and spoke to folks on the ground," Huckabee wrote on X. "GHF delivers more than one million meals a day, an incredible feat!"

Huckabee earlier stated that the visit to Gaza was "to learn the truth" about the aid distribution sites, also after the United Nations complained it's been sidelined and that aid is not getting in. Israel has consistently accused the UN of allowing aid to fall into the hands of Hamas and armed criminal gangs.

And Witkoff wrote on X, "Today, we spent over five hours inside Gaza — level setting the facts on the ground, assessing conditions, and meeting with @GHFUpdates and other agencies."

"The purpose of the visit was to give POTUS a clear understanding of the humanitarian situation and help craft a plan to deliver food and medical aid to the people of Gaza," he added. But Hamas has condemned what it's calling a "staged personal visit" and a photo opportunity:

"Mr. Witkoff, Gaza is not an animal farm that requires a staged personal visit to take some personal photos in front of the death traps overseen by your American companies," Basem Naim, a former Palestinian health minister in Gaza, said.

"To remind you once again: The people of Gaza are not a group of beggars, but a free, proud, and noble people (if you understand what these words mean), who seek only their freedom, independence, and return to their homeland," Naim added.

The Witkoff-Huckabee team is clearly defending the US-Israeli aid delivery scheme...

Went into Gaza today & observed humanitarian food program by US launched GHF. Hamas hates GHF b/c it gets food to ppl w/o it being looted by Hamas. Over 100 MILLION meals served in 2 months. pic.twitter.com/BrBtrDg2Hg

— Ambassador Mike Huckabee (@GovMikeHuckabee) August 1, 2025

Some residents have said that other delivery methods like airdrops is like "a drop in the ocean" and nowhere near enough to rescue hundreds of thousands who are on the brink of starvation. Others are calling on Witkoff and Huckabee to visit the "real" Gaza, describing the Friday visit as highly choreographed and controlled by the Israeli side of the conflict.

A number of mainstream press reports are also skeptical: "There are only three active distribution sites in the enclave, in southern and central Gaza – far fewer than hundreds under the previous aid model run by the United Nations," observes CNN. "This has forced massive crowds to gather at GHF locations, where hundreds of Palestinians have been killed, according to the UN."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 19:40

California Law Requiring Background Checks For Ammo Declared Unconstitutional

Via American Greatness,

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled last week that a California law requiring background checks for individuals purchasing ammunition is unconstitutional, upholding a previous judge’s ruling striking down the law.

The background check for ammo purchases law had been struck down twice by U.S. District Judge Roger Benitez before a lawsuit was brought by a coalition of gun owners and gun rights groups who sued the state, saying that the law infringed on the Second Amendment rights of Californians.

The wins just keep on coming - COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT says California's rule for ammunition background checks for every purchase is unconstitutional.

H/T Police Frequency on TG pic.twitter.com/xuWAt3JC9A

— Department of Winning (@DeptofWinning) July 24, 2025

In Thursday’s ruling upholding Benitez’s permanent injunction blocking the law, Judge Sandra Ikuta wrote in the majority opinion that the law was not consistent with how the country has historically regulated firearms, saying, “By subjecting Californians to background checks for all ammunition purchases, California’s ammunition background check regime infringes on the fundamental right to keep and bear arms.”

In the dissent, Judge Jay S. Bybee said that the background check law did not constrain the right to keep and bear arms as a blanket ban might do and that the inconvenience to ammo purchasers was minor.

Bybee wrote, “The vast majority of (California’s) checks cost one dollar and impose less than one minute of delay.”

One of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit filed against the background check requirement is Chuck Michel, president of the California Rifle & Pistol Association, who posted on social media, “This is a huge win. The state will likely appeal en banc, so we have to keep fighting, but this law will fall!”

California Governor Gavin Newsom expressed his frustration with the ruling, saying, “Strong gun laws save lives — and today’s decision is a slap in the face to the progress California has made in recent years to keep its communities safer from gun violence. Californians voted to require background checks on ammunition and their voices should matter.”

The policy of background checks for ammo purchases stems from a 2016 ballot measure intended to expand California’s notoriously strict gun regulations.

The issue brings into focus the question of whether the inherent right to defend one’s life can be abridged without probable cause, by a simple majority vote on the part of the public or whether those rights are protected from the will of the majority.

According to the Los Angeles Times, both the 9th Circuit and the U.S. Supreme Court have significantly restricted gun control measures in just the last decade.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 19:15