Individual Economists

Why It Is So Difficult For Trump To Clean Up Biden's Ukraine Mess

Zero Hedge -

Why It Is So Difficult For Trump To Clean Up Biden's Ukraine Mess

Authored by Fred Fleitz via American Greatness,

Whenever I go on British TV news programs for interviews about President Trump’s efforts to stop the fighting in Ukraine, I am usually asked two leading questions by condescending British TV hosts: “Do you think President Trump’s Ukraine policy has failed?” and “Do you think Russian President Putin is playing President Trump?’

I always answer that these are biased questions that misrepresent how the war in Ukraine started and Trump’s efforts to end it.

Indeed, President Trump has not yet succeeded in ending this brutal war. Russian President Putin has indeed been difficult to deal with, has failed to abide by his commitments with Trump and his officials, and has escalated the war despite Trump’s peace efforts.

It is unfair to portray these potentially temporary outcomes as failures of Trump’s Ukraine policy, as they ignore that his peace efforts aim to address an enormous foreign policy crisis caused by his predecessor that may not be easily fixed or solved.

Biden emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine by ignoring the Russian leader’s fear of Ukraine moving closer to the West and joining NATO. Although Biden and his senior officials never explicitly called for Ukraine to join NATO, they dangled NATO membership before Ukrainian President Zelensky and repeatedly said this decision was up to Ukraine. Biden further confused the situation by stating several times in 2021 that the United States and NATO would stand behind Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” statements that sounded like Biden offered Ukraine security guarantees. In addition, during a June 2021 NATO Summit, NATO reaffirmed the commitment made at the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would one day become a member.

Biden also encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine with extraordinarily weak American national security policies. The most notorious was the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Putin was emboldened to invade by other cases of Biden’s foreign policy incompetence, especially Biden’s statement weeks before Russian troops crossed into Ukraine when he said the U.S. and its allies might be divided on how to respond if a Russian invasion was a “minor incursion.”

In addition, Biden destroyed U.S. relations with Russia after the start of the war by repeatedly demonizing Putin and failing to engage in diplomacy with the Russian leader to end the war. Biden never spoke with Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Instead, he repeatedly harshly criticized Putin, often calling him a war criminal. Biden also likened Putin to Hamas after the horrific October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack against Israel.

Biden and European leaders also pursued policies that caused the war to become a stalemate, which Ukraine will eventually lose. They refused to give Ukraine the weapons it requested in mid-2022 that probably would have enabled it to repel Russian forces from most of its territory. This refusal allowed the Russian army to recover and regroup after suffering heavy losses at the beginning of the invasion. Biden followed this mistake with a policy to arm Ukraine “for as long as it takes” with no strategy either for a Ukrainian victory or to negotiate an end to the war.

Therefore, to say that Trump came to the war in Ukraine as president with the deck stacked against him is an understatement. Although Putin is ultimately responsible for this deadly and unprovoked war, it would not have happened if Biden had not antagonized Putin and ignored his sensitivities about Ukraine. U.S. and European policies also made it impossible for Ukraine to win the war in 2022, made the war worse, and discouraged diplomacy to end the conflict.

In addition, this conflict was made more complex after Biden’s mishandling of U.S.-Russia relations drove Putin into the arms of Chinese President Xi, causing Russia and China to declare a “no limits” partnership and create a new anti-Western axis. Iran and North Korea are at least informal members of this axis.

Trump finds the Ukraine war difficult to end because Biden’s foreign policy failures were so severe. This does not mean the war is unsolvable. But it may mean that the Ukraine mess Biden left for Trump will be far more difficult to clean up than anyone thought.

It is possible that Biden’s Ukraine mess can’t be cleaned up, and the Russian leader will refuse to reach a peaceful settlement on any terms short of Ukrainian capitulation. I also believe the odds are long for a peace agreement right now and that it might take months or years of negotiations to reach a possible peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine.

The next time I am on the BBC and am asked about this issue, I plan to stress that I believe President Trump is ready for the possibility that the Ukraine War is unsolvable and will make clear, if he concludes that the war cannot be ended, that the failure lies with Biden. I will also say that Trump will probably take steps if the Ukraine War cannot be ended to ensure that similar conflicts do not break out in the future and to keep the United States out of similar wars.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 17:40

Hawaii Becomes First State To Charge Tourists For Carbon Footprint

Zero Hedge -

Hawaii Becomes First State To Charge Tourists For Carbon Footprint

Hawaii became the first U.S. state to establish a climate impact fee on tourism this week, placing an additional tax on visitors to fund "climate change resiliency projects".  As the country's inaugural "Green Fee," Act 96 will raise the state's current transient accommodations tax (TAT) by 0.75% for a total of 11% placed upon the nightly lodging rate, effective Jan. 1, 2026, according to a press release by Governor Josh Green's office.

“Today Hawaiʻi ushers in the first Green Fee in the nation. Once again, Hawaiʻi is at the forefront of protecting our natural resources, recognizing their fundamental role in sustaining the ecological, cultural and economic health of Hawaiʻi. As an island chain, Hawaiʻi cannot wait for the next disaster to hit before taking action. We must build resiliency now, and the Green Fee will provide the necessary financing to ensure resources are available for our future,” said Governor Green.

Green is ostensibly referring to the disastrous Maui fires in 2023 which did $5.5 billion in property damage and became an international embarrassment for the Hawaiian state government.  Of course, as we reported at the time, the fires had nothing to do with "climate change" and everything to do with the state's gross mismanagement of water resources and fire response.

The new Green Fee will apply to travelers staying in hotels, short-term vacation rentals and for the first time ever, cruise ships. For a nightly hotel rate of $300, the tax would add an extra $2.25 each day.  This might not seem like much, but Hawaiian officials expect the tax to generate up to $100 million per year, and like all progressive governments, they are licking their chops over the possibilities.

In essence, carbon footprint schemes are a tax on an invisible byproduct with an imaginary climate impact.  These are taxes to solve a problem which does not exist.  So, the sky is truly the limit on how far carbon taxes can be taken to bleed the American public and fuel further government expansion.  It begins with a tax on hotel rooms, but there's nothing stopping the state from adding the same fees to everything from boat rentals to tiki torches. 

Furthermore, if Hawaiian residents think they will be spared from such taxes, they are in for a rude awakening.  The new Green Fee also applies to people living in Hawaii who stay at hotels and resorts, and there's little doubt that more taxes are incoming as the Green Fee sets the precedent.  Some legislators have pushed for carbon tax "kickback" to residents of the state, but this would represent a minimal offset if carbon taxes spread to all areas of the economy.

Keep in mind, Hawaii already has one of the highest tax burdens for citizens in the entire US.

Hawaii's carbon reduction plans call for a 70% cut in emissions by 2030, using a "phased-in system" with a carbon tax rate of $80 per ton of carbon emissions by that year.  Hawaii want zero emissions by 2045.  Meaning, a green fee on hotels is just the beginning and everything with a carbon footprint will ultimately be taxed into oblivion.

As we have noted many times, there is zero concrete evidence of a causation relationship between carbon emissions and climate change.  All climate models used by scientists in the field to justify their global warming claims rely on data collected from the 1880s onward.  That's a tiny window of 140 years in the Earth's climate history and conveniently ignores long term data from before the advent of human industry.

When we examine Earth's temperatures over millions of years, it's easy to see that modern civilization exists in one of the coldest periods, not the warmest.  Numerous warming periods have occurred in the past with no human activity to cause the events.

And, if we look at the behavior of the carbon content of the Earth's atmosphere over this same time period, it's obvious that there is no correlation between rising carbon and rising temperatures.

In other words, the entire basis for carbon taxation has been debunked.  The only reason governments continue to push for emissions fees is because they know a large percentage of the population isn't aware of this information.  Government and NGO funded climate scientists continue to spread disinformation on global warming because they have access to billions upon billions of dollars in grant money if they promote the narrative.  The farce is simply far too lucrative to abandon.   

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 16:40

Nvidia CEO To Sell $800 Million In Stock

Zero Hedge -

Nvidia CEO To Sell $800 Million In Stock

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan—disclosed in the chipmaker's 10-Q filing—to sell up to 6 million shares by year-end. The move comes as Nvidia shares trade near record highs, following a solid first-quarter earnings beat and an upbeat outlook. 

CEO Jensen Huang established his trading plan in March, outlining the sale of up to 6 million shares by December 31, 2025. The same filing also revealed that Director Brooke Seawell intends to sell 1.53 million shares under the trading plan expiring July 31, 2025, while CFO Colette Kress plans to sell 500,000 shares by March 24, 2026.

The trading plan was announced with Nvidia's stock trading near all-time highs, following a strong Q1 2025 earnings beat and an optimistic outlook. Rule 10b5-1 plans are designed to allow insiders to sell shares on a predetermined schedule, thereby helping to alleviate concerns over trading on material non-public information. 

Bloomberg data shows Huang's insider activity over the last 5.5 years...

The data also shows that Huang is Nvidia's fifth-largest shareholder, holding about 3.52% of the company's outstanding shares—equivalent to around 859.6 million shares as of mid-March.

Nvidia's solid first-quarter earnings underscore the sustained strength of AI demand, with one U.S. data center financier characterizing the current environment as a "sprint" expected to continue through President Trump's second term.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 15:25

Police Arrest Suspects In Murder Of Infowars Journalist

Zero Hedge -

Police Arrest Suspects In Murder Of Infowars Journalist

Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA,

Law enforcement officials have arrested two suspects in connection with the murder of Infowars reporter Jamie White.

The Infowars set. (ThreeSixty Asset Advisors via AP)

The Austin Police Department announced that 17-year-old Rodney Charles Hill, Eloy Adrian Camarillo, and two unidentified 15-year-olds face murder charges after allegedly killing White outside his Austin, Texas, home. Police arrested Camarillo last month.

According to court documents, the suspects were attempting to break into White’s Kia on March 9 when he confronted them and was fatally shot. White was rushed to a nearby hospital but was pronounced dead the following morning.

Detectives said White’s vehicle had a broken window and blood inside, presumably from a cut. Austin police said Kia cars have become frequent targets in Austin due to a flawed security system that makes them easier to steal.

Austin Police Detective Jason Jones said the suspects were tracked through a stolen vehicle they drove to White’s residence. Investigators relied on the car’s data, cellphone signal records and license plate reader scans to locate the suspects, according to KVUE.

“We believe this is a very unfortunate and tragic series of senseless events leading to [White’s death], involving the four individuals who obviously have no value for human life,” Jones said, as quoted by the news outlet.

He added that all individuals believed to be involved are in custody, though the investigation remains ongoing.

White was a rising journalist and well-regarded writer for Infowars. His killing stunned conservative circles, particularly Infowars founder Alex Jones, who shared several social media posts honoring White’s legacy.

Jamie White, such a good friend of mine,” Jones said in a video, while filming White’s desk. “This makes me sick.”

White had previously celebrated his time with Infowars by posting a photo with Jones in 2023, writing, “Nobody is more committed to defeating the New World Order than him.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 15:05

Chaotic Day In US Stocks As Trump & China Trade Headlines Spark Dump'n'Pump

Zero Hedge -

Chaotic Day In US Stocks As Trump & China Trade Headlines Spark Dump'n'Pump

Update (1500ET): If ever there was a day which exposed the markets' sensitivity to China trade policy - it was today as an early rebuke by Trump was followed by threats of new sanctions and then an optimistic tone: “I’m sure that I’ll speak to President Xi and hopefully we’ll work that out,”

*  *  *

Update (1230ET): So much for the TACO trade...

Trump came out swinging early (as we detailed below) and has now followed up with an upper cut as Bloomberg reports, the Trump administration plans to broaden restrictions on China’s tech sector with new regulations to capture subsidiaries of companies under US curbs.

Officials are drafting a rule that would impose US government licensing requirements on transactions with companies that are majority-owned by already-sanctioned firms, according to people familiar with the matter.

The subsidiary rule — which applies a 50% ownership threshold in relation to companies on the Entity List, Military End-User list and Specially Designated Nationals list — could be unveiled as soon as June, said the people, who asked not to be named to discuss private deliberations.

The people emphasized that the contents and timing of the rule and related sanctions are not yet finalized and could still change.

After the rule is published, the US is likely to move forward with new sanctions on major Chinese companies, the people said.

So trade policy uncertainty is about to skyrocket again

The reaction in stocks was immediate... and lower...

NVDA has erased all of its post-earnings gains

*  *  *

Following earlier comments by TsySec Bessent that trade talks with China had "stalled", President Trump took to social media to explain his position:

Two weeks ago China was in grave economic danger!

The very high Tariffs I set made it virtually impossible for China to TRADE into the United States marketplace which is, by far, number one in the World.

We went, in effect, COLD TURKEY with China, and it was devastating for them.

Many factories closed and there was, to put it mildly, "civil unrest."

I saw what was happening and didn’t like it, for them, not for us. I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen.

Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized and China got back to business as usual.

Everybody was happy! That is the good news!!!

The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!

The reaction was swift - US equity futures dumped...

And crude crashed...

So much for 'TACO'! No more Mr Nice Guy does not sound like "chickening out".

Will PCE rescue the markets?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 15:00

Q2 GDP Tracking: Wide Range due to Trade "Distortions"

Calculated Risk -

From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to +1.8% q/q saar. [May 30th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
The goods trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in April, reflecting a sharp decline in goods imports and a moderate increase in goods exports. The Advance Economic Indicators report indicated a significantly larger decline in imports than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the personal income and spending report were modestly softer than our previous assumptions. On net, we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 1.0pp to +3.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.6%. We continue to see the headline Q1 and Q2 GDP growth readings as distorted measures of economic growth because of measurement challenges related to swings in imports around tariff increases. [May 30th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.64 percentage points to 1.45 percentage points, while the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 3.7 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent. [May 30th estimate]

Who's Programming The AI, Mr. President?

Zero Hedge -

Who's Programming The AI, Mr. President?

Authored by Maureen Steele via American Greatness,

President Trump’s new legislative centerpiece - the One Big Beautiful Bill - has a promising name and some compelling goals: reduce government bloat, streamline agencies, and modernize operations with cutting-edge technology.

But there’s a problem. A big one.

No one will tell us who’s programming the AI.

This sweeping bill includes a 10-year moratorium on any state or local government regulating artificial intelligence. According to The Washington Post and AP, more than 60 existing state-level laws will be overridden if this provision passes. All regulatory authority over AI—including systems that will be used in law enforcement, healthcare, defense, and finance—will be centralized in the federal government for a decade.

Even worse? The bill empowers the Department of Commerce to deploy “commercial AI” across virtually every federal agency—from the IRS to Homeland Security—according to Indian Express and The Verge.

And yet, no one in the White House or Congress has revealed who is writing the AI code, what datasets it’s trained on, whether it can be independently audited, or whether it’s bound by the U.S. Constitution.

This isn’t just a transparency issue. This is a constitutional crisis in the making.

To be clear, President Trump’s instincts here may be sound. We’ve long needed to shrink the federal leviathan and replace unconstitutional bureaucracies with systems that serve the people—not special interests.

But good intentions won’t protect us from unseen programmers, black-box algorithms, and unaccountable automation.

This bill mandates AI integration across government “to improve efficiency and security.” But efficiency isn’t liberty. Security isn’t sovereignty. And no AI—no matter how “smart”—should be allowed to rewrite, ignore, or reinterpret constitutional rights.

According to Business Insider, the AI moratorium’s stated goal is to “foster innovation” and avoid a “fragmented regulatory landscape.” In reality, it strips states of their authority to protect their citizens from deepfakes, algorithmic bias, digital censorship, and mass surveillance.

This is not governance. This is outsourced tyranny, hidden under the guise of modernization.

So let’s ask the question about what happens when AI is weaponized. If the systems being implemented were open source, transparent, built entirely on constitutional jurisprudence, and auditable by the public, we’d be having a very different conversation.

Instead, we’re facing a future where an algorithm may determine whether you’re eligible for services, a machine learning system may flag you as a “threat” based on your social media posts, and a black-box model may deny you a loan, reject your legal challenge, or freeze your bank account.

And you’ll never be told why.

You’ll never meet the person who made the decision—because there won’t be one.

And you won’t be able to sue.

Let’s not forget: AI is only as trustworthy as the data and ideology behind it. Who’s writing the rules? Google? Palantir? A Pentagon contractor? A committee of DEI officers? Are any of them being held to the Constitution?

The bill provides no clarity and no enforceable limits.

Many Americans have noticed that Trump, while visionary and bold, often surrounds himself with personnel who do not share his America First convictions.

Look no further than Susie Wiles—a long-time D.C. insider and lobbyist who acts as a gatekeeper to the former president. She’s known for blocking conservative constitutionalists from delivering vital information to Trump. The concern here is obvious: if Trump is not being properly briefed, then he may be backing legislation that completely contradicts the very values he’s trying to protect.

He’s been misled before, and this bill may be the worst example yet.

If AI is going to be deployed in government, then it must be open source—so the public can verify it—bound to the Constitution, not corporate code; audited regularly by independent, civilian-led review boards; and subject to judicial challenge if it infringes on rights.

Anything less is a betrayal of American sovereignty.

The One Big Beautiful Bill is not a harmless modernization measure. It is a potential gateway to technocratic control, where the power of law enforcement, taxation, and surveillance is handed over to machines we can’t see, question, or hold accountable.

Call your U.S. senators now. Demand: Removal of the AI moratorium. Clear constitutional guardrails and transparency, auditing, and public oversight of all AI code deployed in federal agencies.

Let them know: We are not giving the republic away to an algorithm.

This is the fight. If we lose this one, there may be no one left—human or otherwise—to fight the next.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 13:45

Watch Live: Trump And Musk Hold Press Conference On DOGE Chief's Last Day

Zero Hedge -

Watch Live: Trump And Musk Hold Press Conference On DOGE Chief's Last Day

President Donald Trump and Elon Musk are holding a press conference on Musk's last day as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

"I am having a Press Conference tomorrow at 1:30 P.M. EST, with Elon Musk, at the Oval Office. This will be his last day, but not really, because he will, always, be with us, helping all the way. Elon is terrific! See you tomorrow at the White House," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Watch Live:

As the Epoch Times notes further, since Trump took office, Musk has led DOGE with the goal of identifying opportunities for spending and personnel cuts across the federal government amid record national debt. DOGE’s efforts have drawn criticism from Democrats and legal challenges.

Musk announced on May 28 that he planned on leaving the federal government as his 130-day term as a special government employee is ending.

“As my scheduled time as a Special Government Employee comes to an end, I would like to thank President @realDonaldTrump for the opportunity to reduce wasteful spending,” Musk said in a post on the social media platform X.

“The @DOGE mission will only strengthen over time as it becomes a way of life throughout the government.”

Musk has recently criticized the House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, expressing his concerns over the budget deficit.

While the bill makes sweeping cuts to federal programs like the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), also known as food stamps, and Medicaid—specifically through the imposition of more stringent income and work requirements, in addition to an increased financial burden on states to fund the entitlements—some officials have estimated that it could still negatively impact the deficit.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the legislation could increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over 10 years—prompting criticism from Musk and other budget hawks.

“I was disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decreases it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing,” Musk said during an appearance on “CBS Sunday Morning.” “I think a bill can be big or it can be beautiful, but I don’t know if it can be both.”

Trump has been outspoken in his support of the package, personally working to sway conservative critics. After Musk’s comments, the president said on May 28 “I’m not happy about certain aspects of it, but I’m thrilled by other aspects of it.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has endorsed the package, saying it would be “jet fuel for the U.S. economy.”

In response to the DOGE-related concerns, White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller said in a post on X that spending cuts recommended by DOGE could only be handled through a rescissions package or appropriations bill.

The White House on May 28 confirmed it would soon send Congress a $9.4 billion request to cut spending, wrapping in several of DOGE’s suggested cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 13:25

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 24 May
The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 24 May. ...

18-24 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 67.5% (-0.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.57 (+1.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.02 (+1.1%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will mostly move sideways for a couple more weeks until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Riley Gaines Calls Out Male Pitcher Who Dominated Minnesota Softball State Championship

Zero Hedge -

Riley Gaines Calls Out Male Pitcher Who Dominated Minnesota Softball State Championship

Via American Greatness,

Former collegiate swimmer and conservative political activist Riley Gaines is calling out a male athlete who pretends to be a woman who carried a Minnesota girls high school softball team to a state championship.

A male athlete who goes by the name of “Marissa” Rothenberger, pitched 14 shutout innings in back to back games to defeat the defending state 4A champion softball team.

Gaines had harsh words for Minnesota Governor Tim Walz , calling him “a shameful, sorry excuse for a man” for allowing a male athlete to single handedly dominate a girl’s state championship tournament.

“Seriously, where are the girl’s parents,” Gaines asked as she offered her platform as a way to defend their daughters who were forced to compete against a biological male pretending to be a girl.

Fox News reports that Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison is being sued by the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) which filed a lawsuit on behalf of the group Female Athletes United and three anonymous female softball players over the controversy.

Alliance Defending Freedom Legal Counsel Suzanne Beecher told Fox News Digital:

By sacrificing protection for female athletes, Minnesota fails to offer girls equal treatment and opportunity, violating Title IX’s provisions. Our client, Female Athletes United, is right to stand up for its members by challenging the state’s discriminatory policy and advocate for true equality in sports.

In response, Ellison’s office released a statement saying, “I believe it is wrong to single out one group of students, who already face higher levels of bullying and harassment, and tell these kids they cannot be on the team because of who they are. I will continue to defend the rights of all students to play sports with their friends and peers.”

The Minnesota State High School League had announced earlier this year that it would openly defy President Trump’s “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports” executive order by allowing biological male athletes who are pretending to be girls to continue participating in women’s sports.

Ellison also decided to preemptively sue the Trump administration after it issued the executive order, in order to ensure that male athletes are not prevented from participating in girl’s sports.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 13:05

Democrats Pledge Impeachments And Prosecutions When They Return To Power

Zero Hedge -

Democrats Pledge Impeachments And Prosecutions When They Return To Power

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Various Democrats are promising to investigate and impeach President Donald Trump if they retake the House next year. At the same time, others are promising a scorched earth campaign against those who support Trump, including Elon Musk. Representative Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA) declared this week that Musk committed crimes and will be at the top of the list. 

MSNBC’s ratings may be declining but the network is escalating the unhinged rhetoric. Host Symone Sanders ominously told Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA) , “Let’s talk about Elon Musk” and his “data” on waste that he identified in the federal government: “So what are Democrats going to do about the data? Are you all going to follow up on this?”

Subramanyam immediately pledged to hunt Musk down:

“… certainly, I think some crimes may have been committed over the past 3 or 4 months, and they are going to come to light one way or another, even if it takes us getting into power again, but we will subpoena people and find out.”

There is no evidence of any criminal conduct by Musk. Indeed, DOGE has largely won in its fights to gain access to records in the search for fraud and waste.

Nevertheless, after calling for Musk to be “taken down,” Democratic rep. Jasmine Crockett (D., Tx.) is also calling for Musk to be investigated over DOGE once Democrats take power.

It is otherworldly to see Democrats raising prosecution threats against the effort to reduce the size and waste of government. One can certainly be critical of some of the cuts under DOGE but few would disagree that Musk helped find billions in waste, including some shocking revelations about the inefficiencies of our government.

A former Obama aide, Rep. Subramanyam just arrived in Congress but has immediately resumed the same failed narrative. The Democrats are an example of how, if you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

There is a return to the same script from pledges of prosecutions to impeachments.

Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez has even reimagined the “defund the police” campaign into an “Abolish ICE” campaign.

Resisting immigration enforcement, downsizing government, and other issues are only moving the party further from the center of this country.

The threat only reaffirms my call yesterday for President Trump to award Musk the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his contributions to space exploration, electric vehicles, free speech, and other public service. Elon has lost a fortune in resisting these attacks and threats from the left. This country owes him a great debt.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 12:25

MiB: Tom Barkin, Richmond Federal Reserve President & CEO

The Big Picture -

 

 

This week, I speak with Tom Barkin, Richmond Federal Reserve President & CEO. He previously spent 30 years at McKinsey & Company , eventually becoming Chief Risk Officer and Chief Finaacial Officer. He also sits on the Federal Open Market Committee.

A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Bryon Lake, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chief Transformation Officer. He designs portfolio solutions and extend Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s suite of investment strategies to the world’s leading institutional investors and wealth management clients.

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Tom Barkin, Richmond Federal Reserve President & CEO appeared first on The Big Picture.

Despite Tariff-flation Fearmongering, Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Tumbles To Four-Year Low

Zero Hedge -

Despite Tariff-flation Fearmongering, Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Tumbles To Four-Year Low

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - fell once again in April to its lowest since April 2021 at +2.5% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Services inflation is slowing rapidly...

Source: Bloomberg

Headline PCE fell to +2.1%...

Source: Bloomberg

The downturn was triggered by a large deflationary impulse in non-durable goods...

SuperCore PCE also tumbled to four year lows with its first MoM decline since April 2020...

Source: Bloomberg

SuperCore PCE was driven down by a big drop in Financial Services & Insurance costs...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, for all the terror of tariffs in the soft survey data, spending continues to increase and incomes are growing strongly...

Source: Bloomberg

On the income side, both govt and private workers saw compensation accelerate...

Source: Bloomberg

Given the outperformance of income over spending, the savings rate rebounded strongly to its highest since April 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

...it's gonna be hard for Powell to justify the 'pause' now.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 11:40

Why California Gas Prices Are the Highest In America

Zero Hedge -

Why California Gas Prices Are the Highest In America

Authored by Vance Ginn via the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER),

California leads the nation in more ways than one—taxes, regulations, and, once again, gas prices. As of mid-May 2025, the average gasoline price in California is $4.85 per gallon, far above the national average of $3.26, according to GasBuddy and AAA.

And it’s getting worse. A March 2025 study by USC Professor Michael Mische forecasts California’s fuel prices could spike 75 percent to over $8 per gallon within the next year. That’s not hyperbole—that’s the trajectory unless policymakers reverse course.

The culprit? It’s not oil companies or global demand. It’s decades of state-level tax hikes, regulatory overreach, and misguided climate mandates that have warped the gasoline market in California. This is a man-made problem—a case study in government failure, not market failure.

What Really Drives Gas Prices

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline prices are generally shaped by five components: crude oil prices, refining costs, distribution and marketing, taxes, and regulations. In California, taxes and regulatory costs alone account for more than $1.30 per gallon—nearly double the national average.

California has the highest gas tax in the country, at $0.678 per gallon, not including additional fees and environmental surcharges. Add in the Cap-and-Trade program, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and boutique fuel blends that are required only in California, and it becomes clear why Californians pay more.

And things are deteriorating further. The Mische study warns that with refinery closures due to hostile permitting processes and low expected returns under California’s climate mandates, fuel supply in the state could drop by 20 percent by 2026, even as demand stays relatively stable. Fewer refineries and rigid fuel standards will mean tighter supply and higher prices.

Texas vs. California: A Tale of Two Fuel Markets

To see how bad California’s policies are, look no further than Texas. As of May 2025, Texas drivers pay about $3.00 per gallon, nearly two dollars less than Californians. Texas levies a combined state gasoline tax of just $0.20 per gallon, and its regulatory structure is streamlined and energy-friendly.

Texas refineries aren’t subject to California’s carbon credit system or forced to produce costly special-blend fuels. And because it allows for a more competitive and open fuel market, the state benefits from both lower wholesale prices and more efficient distribution. The difference is stark—and instructive.

The Fallacy of ‘Green’ Fuel Mandates

Supporters of California’s approach claim high prices are a necessary cost for fighting climate change. But what if those policies aren’t actually working?

California’s greenhouse gas emissions have declined, but much of the reduction has come from cleaner electricity generation, not gasoline policies. Meanwhile, low-income and working-class Californians are being punished at the pump while driving older, less fuel-efficient vehicles.

This amounts to a regressive tax that hurts the very people politicians claim to protect. Worse, these rules don’t reduce global emissions—they just push energy production and refining out of the state and overseas, often to countries with weaker environmental standards.

The Economic Cost of Fragmented Fuel Policies

In my academic work, including a peer-reviewed paper and subsequent research (SSRN profile), I’ve documented how state-level fragmentation of fuel markets—through taxes, environmental programs, and infrastructure restrictions—creates costly inefficiencies that drive up prices.

These policies discourage new investment in refining and fuel transportation. They create artificial shortages. And they increase transaction costs that ultimately fall on consumers.

In short, California’s model is a textbook case of how overregulation and government micromanagement destroy affordability without delivering proportional benefits.

What Should Be Done Instead?

The answer isn’t new subsidies or “green” credits. It’s not banning gas-powered cars or rationing vehicle miles. The solution is to embrace free-market capitalism and the principles Milton Friedman championed: let prices reflect market conditions, not bureaucratic preferences.

That means:

  • Repealing California’s Cap-and-Trade and LCFS programs.

  • Standardizing fuel blends to match those used nationwide.

  • Halting the gasoline tax increases scheduled under current law.

  • Encouraging private investment in refining and fuel infrastructure.

The federal government could help by streamlining interstate pipeline permitting and revisiting federal environmental rules that duplicate or exacerbate state mandates. But the real change must come from Sacramento.

Conclusion: A Crisis of Policy, Not Price

California’s high gas prices aren’t the product of global volatility or greedy corporations. They’re the result of a long series of deliberate policy choices that make fuel harder to produce, harder to transport, and harder to afford.

When government picks winners and losers in energy markets, consumers lose. And when politicians mistake control for competence, they create systems that serve ideology rather than reality.

It’s time to abandon the myth that high gas prices are the price of progress. California has created a man-made fuel crisis—and only free-market reforms can solve it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 11:40

"Neocons Acting As Vanguard For Israel" To Push War With Iran: ZH Debate Recap

Zero Hedge -

"Neocons Acting As Vanguard For Israel" To Push War With Iran: ZH Debate Recap

As Netanyahu threatens to upend U.S. talks with Iran by launching a unilateral strike himself — it’s unclear what the Trump admin plans to do and whether war is on the horizon. Last night, ZeroHedge hosted two category experts for a hawk-versus-dove showdown to answer what Trump should do. Negotiate or bomb? Who’s the aggressor: Iran or Israel?

Libertarian Institute founder Scott Horton lobbied for peace and outlined the long list of U.S. provocations that scarcely surface in western media. Israeli professor Dr. Meir Javedanfar warned of Iranian aggression and support for terrorism. Interestingly, they both agreed on one point: withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) was a mistake.

Here were the highlights for those short on time:

Iranian or Israeli/US aggression?

Javedanfar made a laundry list of Iranian acts of aggression and regarding their push for obtaining a nuke, including:

  • Iran was caught secretly building the Natanz nuclear facility without informing the IAEA.
  • Iran was again caught building a hidden enrichment facility at Fordo.
  • Iran conducted research on a nuclear trigger mechanism at the Parchin site, including testing surrogate explosives.
  • Documents retrieved by Mossad confirmed Iran’s intent to maintain a nuclear weapon development capability. 
  • Killed 240 U.S. Marines in Beirut (1983 bombing).
  • Took U.S. hostages and attacked the U.S. embassy in Beirut.
  • Orchestrated the Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia (1996), killing 19 U.S. servicemen.
  • Planned a terrorist attack in Washington, D.C. in 2011; plot was foiled by the CIA.

To which Horton replied point-by-point:

  • U.S. and Western interventions (via USAID, NED, IRI, NDI, Soros orgs) aimed to provoke regime change in Iran, such as the 2009 Green Revolution, prompting Iran’s fear and secrecy.
  • Natanz facility secrecy was due to Iran being blocked by the Nuclear Suppliers Group from purchasing legal nuclear technology, forcing it to buy from AQ Khan’s black market network.
  • The discovery of Natanz was not initially by Israeli intelligence or the MEK, but by David Albright, an American nuclear expert.
  • MEK (Mujahideen-e-Khalq), cited in claims of exposing Iran’s nuclear program, is described as a “communist terrorist cult” with a history of switching allegiances and spreading false intelligence.
  • The claim about Iran developing nuclear triggers at Parchin is refuted:
    • The scientist involved was Igor Danchenko, an expert in nano-diamonds, not nuclear weapons.
    • There is no credible evidence linking him to nuclear weapons research.
  • The 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program, largely due to the removal of Saddam Hussein, which eliminated Iran’s primary deterrent need.
  • Israel itself engaged in nuclear espionage, including stealing Krytrons (nuclear triggers) from the U.S., highlighting hypocrisy in Israeli accusations. 
  • The 1983 Beirut bombing:
    • Occurred 42 years ago and was carried out by proto-Hezbollah, not directly ordered by Tehran.
    • Israel was aware of the attack but didn’t warn the U.S., according to former Israeli spy Victor Ostrovsky.
  • The Khobar Towers bombing (1996):
    • Attributed to al-Qaeda, not Iran. Specifically, Osama bin Laden and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed were responsible.
    • CIA experts, including Michael Scheuer, and bin Laden himself, confirmed this.
  • The 2011 Washington D.C. restaurant plot:
    • Dismissed as a hoax involving a used car salesman with no real ties to the Iranian regime.
    • The target was a minor diplomat, and the plot was more of a drug deal gone wrong than a genuine Iranian terror plot.
Neocon-Israeli alliance

“Acting directly as agents of the Israeli state.”

While Javedanfar dismissed the claims of Israeli influence in U.S. foreign policy as mere coincidental alignment of interests, Horton charged the neocon alliance that occupied the ranks of the George W Bush administration as essentially acting as foreign agents.

“The war could not have happened without the neocons acting as the vanguard for the Israeli state.”

Be sure to check out the full debate here and subscribe to ZeroHedge Spotify, Rumble, and YouTube channels for more debates and for next week’s debut of our podcast hosted by comedian Rob Bernstein for weekly recaps on our most crucial articles.

FULL DEBATE:

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 11:15

Biden May Be Called To Testify On Cover-Up Of His Own Cognitive Decline: Comer

Zero Hedge -

Biden May Be Called To Testify On Cover-Up Of His Own Cognitive Decline: Comer

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Joe Biden’s wife and son, and even Sleepy Joe himself, may be forced to testify before the House Oversight Committee regarding the attempts to cover up his clear mental unravelling, according to the committee Chairman James Comer.

In a Fox News interview, Comer revealed that the former First Lady, Jill Biden, and the President’s son, Hunter, as well as former White House Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre could be called in and subpoenaed if they refuse to agree to testifying.

“If the trail leads us to the next step, which many believe would be perhaps Jill Biden and Hunter Biden, then we will go there,” Comer stated.

The committee has already called in Dr. Kevin O’Connor, the physician who gave Biden a clean bill of health, and four other Biden handlers to testify.

Comer added that they have “all lawyered up,” and are “all taking this very seriously,” also noting that O’Connor “definitely was not telling the truth about Joe Biden’s health.”

The deadline for them to respond is the end of today.

Hannity asked Comer if it would “even be worthwhile to Bring [Biden] in” in light of what a “cognitive mess” he is, to which the Rep. responded he was open to bringing Biden in.

Whether or not he’d get a single sentence that makes any sense out of Biden is another question.

Congress is seeking to investigate the autopen scandal and find out exactly what top aides knew about Biden’s mental deficiency.

The Oversight Project previously released findings showing an apparent correlation between the increased use of autopen signatures and Joe Biden’s worsening mental decline.

The group found that two different autopens were used, with an analysis of Executive Order signatures showing an “increased use of the autopen as President Biden’s mental and physical decline accelerated.”

President Trump has called for those who operated Biden’s autopen to be jailed.

Trump has also declared that all of the pardons issued in the final days of Biden’s fake Presidency should be void because he didn’t sign any of them.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 10:50

Supreme Court Lets Trump Strip 500,000 Migrants Of Legal Status

Zero Hedge -

Supreme Court Lets Trump Strip 500,000 Migrants Of Legal Status

The Supreme Court on Friday sided with the Trump administration - allowing them to revoke temporary legal status granted to over 500,000 immigrants by the Biden administration.

In a 7-2 vote, the court granted an emergency application filed by DHS Secretary Kristi Noem that ends the Biden program which granted 532,000 people from Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua permission to temporarily live and work in the United States. 

And of course, liberal justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Sonia Sotomayor dissented - with Jackson writing that the court had failed to take into account "the devastating consequences of allowing the government to precipitously upend the lives and livelihoods of nearly half a million noncitizens while their legal claims are pending."

DHS was contesting a ruling by Massachusetts-based US District Judge Indira Talwani - who ruled that the administration could not cancel each person's status without an individualized determination.

The Biden-era rule known as CHNV began in 2022, when former DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas granted 'parole' for two years to people from the aforementioned countries in order to deal with the flood of migrants crossing illegally into the United States. The program allowed migrants who passed a security check and had a sponsor in the USA who could provide housing, to enter the country and remain.

In court papers reported by NBC News, Solicitor General D. John Sauer said that Talwani did not have authority to rule on the issue - as Noem's authority stems from the federal Immigration and Nationality Act.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 10:36

UMich Survey Shows Improvement Despite TDS Still Among Democrat Respondents

Zero Hedge -

UMich Survey Shows Improvement Despite TDS Still Among Democrat Respondents

Two weeks after the preliminary UMichigan survey found that "Women, Democrats, & Low-Income Americans Are Out Of Their TDS-Addled Minds", and one week after Goldman finally called out the idiocy of the UMich survey, slamming its "partisanship" and the "sample design break starting from June 2024"...

... not to mention that it has been chronically wrong, warning that "Michigan inflation expectations have already risen even more than in 2022 and this time long-term expectations have risen sharply too, all before tariffs have even meaningfully boosted consumer prices" while "technicalities have exaggerated the increase in the Michigan [inflation] survey, as other survey measures and market-implied inflation compensation have not risen much at horizons beyond the next year", moments ago the final UMich survey for the month of May saw sharp revisions to the prelim prints, to wit:

  • The headline Sentiment print was revised higher from 50.8 - which was the lowest since May 1980 - to 52.2, and above the median estimate of 51.5
  • The Current Conditions print was revised from 57.6 to 58.9, and above the median estimate of 58.0
  • The Expectations print was revised from 46.5 to 47.9, and above the median estimate of 46.5

And visually:

“Sentiment had ebbed at the preliminary reading for May but turned a corner in the latter half of the month following the temporary pause on some tariffs on China goods,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

Still, “consumers see the outlook for the economy as no worse than last month, but they remained quite worried about the future,” Hsu said.

There was more moderation also in the survey's expectations for inflation: consumers (read democrats) were more sanguine about the longer-term inflation outlook. They saw costs rising by 6.6% over the next year, down from 7.3% in the prelim print, and below estimates of 7.1%. Same thing with long-term (5-10 year) inflation expectations, which dropped to 4.2% down from 4.6% in the prelim print, and down from 4.4% in the prior month, and also well below estimates of 4.6%. More importantly, it was the first drop this year.

Yet even with the decline, the staggering gap between democrat and republican inflation expectations remains: Democrats still expect an idiotic 9.4% surge in inflation in the coming year (down from 9.6% in the prelim print), while Republicans realize that demand destruction is coming and see inflation rising by only 1% in the coming year (down from 1.2% in the prelim print).

That said, Democrats still have to temper their TDS aggressively: spot the odd one out - UMich Democrats, The NY Fed, or The Market

One more for fun - comparing Democrats view of the inflationary outlook to the 'hard' inflationary data

Finally, given their historic track record (completely refusing to acknowledge the surge in inflation under Biden), should we simply be ignoring the manic Democrats screaming about inflation now? (spoiler: yes)

Earlier on Friday, the government reported continued declines in the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the core PCE with the supercore print coming at the lowest level since covid. Sooner or later, the market will learn that the UMich index was nothing more than a propaganda tool used by its overpaid marxist professors such as Justin Wolfers, meant to hammer stocks but really just offering a constant opportunity for dip buyers, and sure enough, futures are once again at session highs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 10:30

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.15% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in April. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.6% in April, down from up 2.9% YoY in March. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...

Freddie HPI CBSAAs of April, 26 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.3), Colorado (-2.4%), Oregon (-2.0%), Montana (-1.7%) and Florida (-1.7%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.
There is much more in the article!

HHS Urges Medical Providers, States To Immediately Revise Gender Dysphoria Care Practices

Zero Hedge -

HHS Urges Medical Providers, States To Immediately Revise Gender Dysphoria Care Practices

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is telling health care providers, risk managers, and state medical boards to immediately update their treatment protocols for minors with gender dysphoria.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services at the Hubert H. Humphrey building in Washington on April 28, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

In a letter on May 28, the agency said that it expects federally funded health care groups to follow its review that outlines the most up-to-date science to guide policies for pediatric gender dysphoria treatment. Its comprehensive review was published on May 1 and found sufficient international evidence that puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries pose significant risks, including irreversible sterilization.

After releasing its review, HHS said the recommended treatment plan is psychotherapy, citing it as a noninvasive alternative to “endocrine and surgical interventions for the treatment of pediatric gender dysphoria.” Some of the other cited risks include reduced bone density and heart disease.

The agency is now telling health care providers to no longer rely on previous “discredited guidelines” for pediatric gender dysphoria, arguing there is “weak evidence and growing international retreat” from using puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries as the recommended approach for minors with the condition.

Instead, providers should adhere to the HHS review for updates to prior guidelines.

“Given your ‘obligation to avoid serious harm’ ... and the findings of the Review, HHS expects you promptly to make the necessary updates to your treatment protocols and training for care for children and adolescents with gender dysphoria to protect them from these harmful interventions,” the agency wrote in its May 28 letter.

The review mentions three nations that recently revised their treatment protocols for pediatric gender dysphoria and “sharply restricted” access to puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries: the United Kingdom, Finland, and Sweden.

“As Sweden’s national health authority has recommended, ‘[p]sychosocial support that helps adolescents deal with natal puberty without medication needs to be the first option when choosing care measures,’” the HHS wrote.

Health care providers are also instructed to cease relying on the “Standards of Care for the Health of Transgender and Gender Diverse People” published by Illinois-based nonprofit World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH), which HHS accused of being “fraudulent” and reflecting a “clear departure from the principles of unbiased, evidence-driven clinical guideline development.”

HHS alleges that WPATH “suppressed systematic reviews of evidence, failed to manage conflicts of interest, and relied on legal and political considerations rather than clinical ones.”

The agency suggests that its new health protocols are instead driven by “evidence-based medicine.”

In its review released on May 1, HHS said the evidence for the benefits of pediatric medical gender transition is “very uncertain, while the evidence for harm is less uncertain.”

When medical interventions pose unnecessary, disproportionate risks of harm, healthcare providers should refuse to offer them even when they are preferred, requested, or demanded by patients,” the review states.

The review was commissioned following an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in January, which stated that U.S. policy was not to “fund, sponsor, promote, assist, or support the so-called ’transition' of a child from one sex to another.”

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/30/2025 - 09:55

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