Individual Economists

Will The Oil Curse Strike South America's Wealthiest Country?

Zero Hedge -

Will The Oil Curse Strike South America's Wealthiest Country?

Authored by Matthew Smith via OilPrice.com,

  • Guyana’s offshore oil discoveries have driven explosive GDP growth, propelling it into the global top tier by income per capita.

  • Heavy dependence on petroleum revenues, weak institutions, and geopolitical pressure from Venezuela raise serious risks of an oil curse.

  • Despite massive state spending and infrastructure investment, much of the population remains poor, highlighting deep distributional challenges.

In a remarkable turnaround, the tiny South American country of Guyana, once one of the continent’s poorest nations, now ranks among the world’s top 10 wealthiest countries by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In a mere decade, Guyana went from first discovery to be lifting nearly 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the prolific 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block. This, despite the lopsided deal favoring the ExxonMobil-led consortium, which controls the oil acreage, has delivered a massive economic windfall. There are concerns that this breakneck economic growth and the massive income generated by oil will see Guyana struck by the oil curse.

In a recent survey ranking the world’s wealthiest countries using projected 2025 GDP by purchasing power parity per capita, Guyana ranked in 10th place, compared to 107th a decade earlier. This put the former British colony behind wealthy countries like Brunei, Switzerland and Norway but, surprisingly, ahead of the world’s second largest economy, the United States of America. Indeed, Guyana’s GDP by purchasing power parity has skyrocketed since oil production began in December 2019. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) it rose sevenfold, from $10.69 billion that year, to an estimated $75.24 billion for 2025.

That immense economic expansion saw Guyana, for a brief period, become the world’s fastest-growing economy. From 2022 to 2024, the tiny country of less than one million reported annual GDP growth rates of 63.3%, 33.8% and 43.6% respectively, by far the highest each of those years for a sovereign state.

While growth has dropped off over recent months, despite petroleum output rising because of the start-up of the Yellowtail project, the former British colony’s economy is forecast to expand by 10.3% in 2025. This makes Guyana the world’s third fastest-growing economy this year.

The latest government data shows Guyana is pumping around 900,000 barrels per day, making the tiny country South America’s third-largest oil producer behind Brazil and Venezuela. Petroleum production will continue to grow with Exxon developing three additional projects in the Stabroek Block. These are the UaruWhiptail and Hammerhead developments with a proposed fourth facility, Longtail, subject to regulatory review. On completion of those three facilities, which start up between 2026 and 2029, will add 650,000 barrels daily, lifting Guyana’s total potential production to 1,5 million barrels per day.

There is a fourth facility under development, although it has yet to be approved. This is the 2018 Longtail discovery, which was the Exxon-led consortium’s fourth find in the Stabroek Block. The $12.5 billion Longtail project, unlike earlier developments, will be a natural gas and condensate facility. It is currently undergoing environmental permitting, with Exxon expecting to make a final investment decision (FID) by the end of 2026. Once approved, it is anticipated Longtail will come online during 2030, adding up to 1.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 290,000 barrels of condensate daily. This will lift Guyana’s hydrocarbon output to over 1.7 million barrels per day.

Once those offshore petroleum assets are operational, the oil produced will boost the former British colony’s GDP. The IMF predicts that between 2025 and 2030, Guyana’s GDP, based on purchasing power parity, will more than double from $75 million to $156 million. That for a country of less than one million translates to an impressive GDP per capita of just under $193,000. When using this metric, it will make Guyana the world’s second-wealthiest nation, behind Liechtenstein and ahead of Singapore. Such a massive concentration of wealth generated by a single resource, petroleum, is sparking considerable fear that Guyana will be impacted by the oil curse.

This is a phenomenon where a country blessed with copious petroleum resources becomes completely economically and financially dependent on crude oil. This typically leads to poor governance, extreme corruption, malfeasance, democratic backsliding, political instability and eventually internal conflict. A prime example of the oil curse, along with the social, political and economic impact it has on petroleum-dependent nations, is Venezuela. Decades of economic over-dependence on crude oil negatively affected Venezuela’s development, destabilising the country and eventually leading to dictatorship and economic collapse.

Incidentally, the Stabroek Block, which is estimated to contain recoverable oil resources of at least 11 billion barrels, has become a target for Caracas. After Exxon made a swathe of world-class discoveries in the offshore acreage, Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro, ratcheted up his sabre-rattling and aggressive rhetoric as part of his campaign to reclaim the long-disputed Essequibo region. This area, comparable in size to the state of Georgia, comprises two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and is rich in precious metals, diamonds, copper, iron, aluminium, bauxite, and manganese.

You see, the prolific Stabroek Block lies in Guyana’s territorial waters that are part of the disputed Essequibo region, an area claimed by Venezuela since independence. Caracas over the last three years has intensified its campaign to regain control of the Essequibo, even threatening to invade the region. There are regular skirmishes between Guyana’s army and Venezuelan gangs on the border between the two countries in the Essequibo. Venezuelan military vessels have entered the Stabroek Block to harass and intimidate the crews of the Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSOs) operating in the offshore oil acreage.

There are very real fears that Guyana, which is a developing country with a history of corruption, lacks the good governance and institutional stability to effectively manage this massive economic windfall generated by this once-in-a-generation oil boom. Already, concerns are emerging about how Georgetown is spending the vast oil profits flowing into government coffers. Georgetown has embarked on a massive infrastructure boom, budgeting $1.2 billion in public works for 2025 to fund new roads, bridges, the development of a world-class deepwater port and public goods such as hospitals. There are, however, considerable concerns that many Guaynese are not benefiting from the tremendous economic windfall generated by oil.

Despite the economy growing at a stunning rate, a sizable portion of the population still lives in poverty. Analysts claim that up to 58% of Guyanese live below the poverty line, although an accurate number is difficult to determine because of a lack of official data. The World Bank estimated in 2019 that 48% of Guyana’s population lives below the poverty line. Despite the economy’s rapid growth, community leaders, nonetheless, claim that much of the wealth generated by the oil boom has yet to trickle down to Guyana’s poorest communities, especially in rural regions.

Those fears are exacerbated by Georgetown’s growing dependence on volatile international energy markets, at a time when the outlook for crude oil is poor. The international Brent benchmark price is down 17% over the last year, which is sharply impacting oil revenues. Analysts from major financial institutions are forecasting that Brent could plunge into the $30 per barrel range by 2027 due to overwhelming market supply. Unsurprisingly, the rapid development of Guyana’s offshore oilfields is a key contributor to this massive jump in non-OPEC global supply growth.

This will sharply impact Georgetown’s newly found oil riches. As international oil prices plunge due to an overwhelming supply glut, Guyana’s petroleum revenue will plummet. This will be exacerbated by 75% of the petroleum produced from the Stabroek Block being classified as cost oil, thus seeing it excluded from royalties and profit-sharing payments with Guyana. While this will not be enough to roil Guyana’s newfound economic boom it has the potential to trigger corruption and malfeasance, leading to uneven development while damaging an increasingly petroleum-dependent economy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 12:40

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

A brief excerpt:
Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply (almost back to pre-pandemic levels), and sales are depressed and tracking last year (sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.3% year-over-year (YoY) in September and will likely be about the same year-over-year in the October report compared to September (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 4.0%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.8%, in May up 2.3%, in June up 1.9% in July up 1.6%, August up 1.6% and in September up 1.3% (a steady decline in the YoY change).

And the September Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in July, August and September. July closing prices include some contracts signed in May. So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.
There is much more in the article.

DOJ Sues States For Voter Information - What To Know

Zero Hedge -

DOJ Sues States For Voter Information - What To Know

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is suing 18 states that refused to hand over voter registration information following a series of requests made earlier this year.

The U.S. Department of Justice in Washington on Oct. 21, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The DOJ said it wants to inspect voter rolls to make sure they are clean and up-to-date, while some states said they are worried the government has ulterior motives in requesting the information.

On Dec. 12, the department added Fulton County, Georgia, to that list; there, the government is asking for records related to the 2020 election.

Here’s what to know about the lawsuits.

The Requests

The DOJ’s inquiry began in May with a letter to Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold asking for voter information and certification that the state had not destroyed any records it was legally obligated to retain.

The letter said the DOJ wanted to ensure that Colorado was in compliance with the Voting Rights Act 52 U.S.C. 20701, which requires states to retain election information, including voter registrations, for 22 months following presidential and congressional races.

Similar requests went out to at least 40 states, but Maria Benson, spokeswoman for the National Association of Secretaries of State, said the DOJ told her “all states would be contacted eventually.”

The requests were sent out following President Donald Trump’s executive order asking the DOJ to verify that states were checking citizenship status for those who registered to vote, in compliance with the National Voter Registration Act.

A few states, like Minnesota, are exempt from the National Voter Registration Act. In those cases, the DOJ cited the Help America Vote Act, which requires similar preservation of voter records, and requires each state to maintain a single, computerized database of its registered voters.

Notably, the DOJ’s request to Minnesota also asked for other information, such as how the state struck deceased voters from its rolls, and how it dealt with duplicate registrations. It also asked the state to explain its procedures for identifying non-citizen voters.

In Nebraska, the DOJ asked for full voter registration data, including “full name, date of birth, residential address, his or her state driver’s license number or the last four digits of the registrant’s social security number.”

The Fulton County suit is different, in that it follows a July resolution passed by the State Election Board of Georgia “calling upon the assistance of the Attorney General to effect compliance with voting transparency.”

In October, the DOJ responded by requesting “all used and void ballots, stubs of all ballots, signature envelopes, and corresponding envelope digital files from the 2020 General Election in Fulton County.”

Fulton County officials rejected that request, saying the records “remain under seal” and will not be produced without a court order.

The Fulton request is notable, not just because it stems from internal state action, but because Trump narrowly lost Georgia in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes.

The Refusal

Only two states, Indiana and Wyoming, fully complied.

Some states, like Washington, responded by giving only part of the requested information, citing privacy concerns or legal prohibitions.

“While we will provide the DOJ with the voter registration data that state law already makes public, we will not compromise the privacy of Washington voters by turning over confidential information that both state and federal law prohibit us from disclosing,” Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs said in a statement.

Hobbs, in a letter to Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, said Washington state law gave the federal government the right to some information, but not voters’ driver’s license and social security numbers.

Sens. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) also issued a public letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi opposing the DOJ’s inspection, calling it a plan “to use sensitive state voter information to create a national voter database, without any direction from Congress or guardrails on how the information in the database will be used.”

“Put simply, it is neither the Department’s job nor its skillset to micromanage how election officials purge voters from state voter rolls,” the senators said.

Among other inquiries, their letter asks Bondi to clarify fully how the DOJ intends to use the information, and what protocols are in place to protect voter privacy.

The Lawsuits

The DOJ has sued 18 states, saying Title III of the Civil Rights Act of 1960 requires states to turn this information over to the attorney general upon request.

So far the Justice Department has sued California, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Colorado, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Washington.

Many of these cases were delayed by the government shutdown and are still in the early stages of litigation. Oregon and Pennsylvania have filed motions to dismiss, but most other states have asked courts for extra time to respond to the suit.

Nebraska resident Dawn Essink, backed by voter advocacy group Common Cause, has sued State Secretary Robert Evnen, hoping to stop the information disclosure.

“Under current [Nebraska] law, local and state election officials are prohibited from disclosing a voter’s birth date, driver’s license information, or social security number,” their complaint reads.

A similar lawsuit was filed in South Carolina, and a judge temporarily blocked the state from releasing the records to the DOJ. That block was later overturned by the state Supreme Court.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 12:05

Goldman's First Take On Safety Monitor-Free Robotaxis In Austin

Zero Hedge -

Goldman's First Take On Safety Monitor-Free Robotaxis In Austin

On Monday, Goldman analyst Mark Delaney highlighted comments from Elon Musk and key Tesla executives touting robotaxi operations in Austin, Texas, with no safety monitors.

"We believe that removing the monitor for testing shows that Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology," Delaney told clients.

The analysts provided more color on what this development means for scaling driverless operations:

We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla's approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability. As we have previously written, we believe how fast Tesla can scale its operating design domain or ODD (e.g. service area and the weather it works in) from a technical capability standpoint will be particularly important, and we think vehicle cost is a somewhat less important variable for profitability, given the potential ability for AV operators to amortize vehicle costs over many miles in a commercial business.

One key factor related to autonomous technology monetization is competition, given the competitive landscape both within the US and internationally for robotaxi operations (with Uber expecting to have AVs in at least 10 cities by the end of 2026 and Waymo already operating in several cities and with multiple additional planned deployments).

Specifically on the competitive landscape, we highlight several planned driverless deployments for Uber (covered by Eric Sheridan), Lyft (covered by Eric Sheridan), and Waymo robotaxis based on company announcements in the US and internationally (ex China) in Exhibits 1–3. Note that some of these overlap (e.g. in cities where Waymo and Uber partner), and we didn't include cities with testing/data collection that have a less clear commercial objective (e.g. NYC, where state law does not currently allow for commercial AV operations).

Recall we expect the US rideshare AV market to reach ~$7 bn in 2030.

Delaney also touched on over-the-air software updates that improved FSD:

We also believe Tesla is making progress with its autonomy software for consumer vehicles (which is FSD). Recall Tesla's CEO recently posted on X that the current v14.2.1 of FSD allows for texting while it is active in some cases depending on the context of surrounding traffic. We believe that the driver is still responsible for the vehicle in these situations (i.e. it is an L2 system). Additionally, the company had noted that v14.3 could be the version where customers could sleep while driving. Per crowdsourced data, v14.x currently can drive ~2,000–3,000 miles without a critical disengagement, though we acknowledge limitations may exist with this data, including controls on data collection and some disengagements not being classified by cause (e.g. lane issue, wrong speed, and other "non-critical" disengagements vs. safety issues, obstacles, or other "critical" disengagements). In addition, reviews, such as from Barron's, are showing good performance with FSD v14.

Robotaxis as a long-term profit driver for Tesla:

Recall that we previously estimated that Tesla's 2030 EPS could range from ~$2–3 to $20 (although we acknowledge there are outcomes beyond these ranges). This would assume:

  1. automotive deliveries of 2–5 mn and automotive revenue ranging from approximately $75–$225 bn;

  2. Services & Other revenue of $20–$40 bn (as the installed base grows);

  3. Software revenue of $5–$45 bn, with the low end implying a competitive FSD market and the high end potentially driven by selling software to other OEMs;

  4. Energy revenue of $35–$55 bn;

  5. Robotics revenue of $3–$25 bn (based on the TAM analysis in the report led by Jacqueline Du linked here);

  6. Robotaxi-related revenue of $2–$10 bn.

We assume EBIT margins ranging from the mid-to-high single digits to the low 20% range. We consider a middle-of-the-road scenario to be ~$7–$9 of EPS, which would imply what we view as balanced share in EVs and robotaxis, plus growth in its high-margin software/FSD business to a meaningful percentage of its own fleet as it begins providing eyes-off functionality for consumer vehicles (but not a meaningful software business for non-Tesla consumer vehicles).

The analysts are Neutral-rated on Tesla with a 12-month price target of $400. ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full note in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 11:45

JPMorgan Launches Its First Tokenized Money Market Fund On Ethereum

Zero Hedge -

JPMorgan Launches Its First Tokenized Money Market Fund On Ethereum

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

JPMorgan, one of the world’s biggest banks, is advancing its presence in tokenized finance by launching its first money market fund through its $4 trillion asset management arm.

The fund, My OnChain Net Yield Fund, will trade under the ticker MONY and is available on the public Ethereum blockchain, JPMorgan said in an announcement shared with Cointelegraph on Monday.

Launched via Kinexys Digital Assets, JPMorgan’s proprietary tokenization platform, MONY is a 506(c) private placement fund providing qualified investors the opportunity to earn US dollar yields by subscribing through its institutional trading platform, Morgan Money.

“With Morgan Money, tokenization can fundamentally change the speed and efficiency of transactions, adding new capabilities to traditional products,” said John Donohue, head of global liquidity at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

MONY investors can receive tokens at their blockchain addresses

By launching MONY, JPMorgan has become the largest global systemically important bank to introduce a tokenized money market fund (MMF) on a public blockchain, the bank said in the announcement.

The fund’s tokenization provides increased transparency, peer-to-peer transferability and the potential for broader collateral usage within the blockchain ecosystem, it said.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY) is issued through Kinexys Digital Assets and is available to investors via Morgan Money. Source: JPMorgan

“This marks a significant step forward in how assets will be traded in the future,” Donohue said, highlighting the role of Morgan Money, where qualified investors can access the fund and receive tokens at their blockchain addresses.

Launched in 2019, Morgan Money provides a real-time investment dashboard and a single access point for operations, allowing investors to build stronger liquidity strategies.

“Morgan Money is the first institutional liquidity trading platform to integrate traditional and on-chain assets offering investors access to a full-range of money market products,” JPMorgan said.

Subscriptions and redemption in cash or stablecoins

According to the announcement, MONY will invest only in traditional US Treasury securities and repurchase agreements fully collateralized by US Treasury securities, allowing qualified investors to earn yield while holding the token on the blockchain.

It also offers daily dividend reinvestment, enabling investors to subscribe and redeem using cash or stablecoins through the Morgan Money platform.

Cointelegraph asked JPMorgan which stablecoins would be supported within the offering, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

JPMorgan’s MONY launch marks another milestone in the race among traditional financial institutions to introduce regulated tokenized products. The news came weeks after the company initiated the first transaction via its forthcoming fund tokenization platform, Kinexys Fund Flow, which is expected to roll out in 2026.

On Thursday, JPMorgan also announced the issuance of a US commercial paper for Galaxy Digital Holdings on the Solana blockchain, marking one of the earliest debt issuances ever executed on a public blockchain.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 11:30

Pump-Prices Plummet As Ukraine Peace Deal Progress Sparks Oil Plunge

Zero Hedge -

Pump-Prices Plummet As Ukraine Peace Deal Progress Sparks Oil Plunge

West Texas Intermediate oil fell below $55 a barrel for the first time since February 2021, the latest sign that crude supplies are outpacing demand as the market braces for a large surplus, and further helped rising hopes for a potential peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

OilPrice.com's Charles Kennedy notes that the ongoing talks about a potential peace deal in Ukraine chipped away at a longstanding geopolitical premium on crude after reports of positive discussions and progress made. 

Rising optimism over a potential peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict added to downward pressure as U.S. officials proposed NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine in talks with Kyiv in Berlin. 

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the negotiators are “closer now than we have been ever.”  

A peace agreement could ease sanctions on Russia’s oil flows and raise supply on an already well-supplied global market.  

“Oil markets will be watching developments closely, given the significant supply risk from sanctions on Russia. While Russian seaborne oil exports have held up well since the imposition of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, this oil is still struggling to find buyers,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Tuesday.

“The result is a growing volume of Russian oil at sea. India, a key buyer of Russian oil since the Russia/Ukraine war began, will reportedly see imports of Russian crude fall to around 800k b/d this month, down from around 1.9m b/d in November,” the strategists added. 

As Bloomberg reports, expectations of a surplus, driven by a wave of new supply from the OPEC+ alliance and countries in the Americas, as well as subdued demand growth, drove prices down this year.

At the same time, signs of weakness are mounting across the oil market, with Middle Eastern prices entering a bearish contango pattern early on Tuesday.

Elevated premiums for fuels like gasoline and diesel relative to crude, which supported prices last month, have also eased, with national average pump-prices in the US now well below $3/gallon - the lowest since Q1 2021...

And given the lead-lag nature of the energy supply-chain, pump-prices could be set to tumble further over the holiday season...

Piling on the bearish slide (bullish for Americans' pocketbooks), US gasoline demand continues to pull back heading into the final weeks of the year amid cold weather sweeping the country.

According to US Energy Information Administration data, the four-week average of product supplied is down 320,000 barrels a day over the last three weeks, and now sits 1.3% below year-ago levels.

This is relatively in line with typical seasonal trends as driving winds down heading into the holidays, though severe winter weather may be limiting driving activity nationwide.

But, despite all this 'peace deal' optimism Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley’s global commodities strategist warned, however, that markets may be getting ahead of themselves. “We have seen this on a few occasions before and it turned out to be premature.”

Additionally, The FT reports that Energy Aspects, a consultancy, said it did not expect “a rapid peace deal” but described the latest negotiations as the biggest geopolitical wild card for the oil market, particularly during the Christmas and new year period when trading volumes are traditionally thin.

So, maybe a tank of gas is a great (affordable) Xmas gift this year?

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 11:15

Oklo Fuel Facility Hits Next Milestone

Zero Hedge -

Oklo Fuel Facility Hits Next Milestone

Oklo achieved their next milestone with the Department of Energy, with the approval of the Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) for the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility at Idaho National Laboratory.

We previously discussed the break-neck speed at which the DoE is reviewing and approving reactor plant and fuel facility designs under the department’s Reactor Pilot Program (RPP) and Fuel Line Pilot Program (FLPP), and now the regulatory are pouring in:

This latest achievement from Oklo represents the roughly 50% completion mark of the A3F design, and is first of its kind under the FLPP. The DoE is coordinating with Oklo to use existing facilities at INL to construct the fabrication plant for producing the unique metallic fuel that will be used in the first Aurora reactor.

Oklo has been working with the DoE and INL since 2019 and has leveraged the coordination over the past six years to progress as rapidly as possible through the novel DoE licensing path.  The sodium-cooled reactor development company will now be focused on the physical construction of the A3F while they prepare their Documented Safety Analysis, which will be submitted near the end of the construction process.

The assertions are still popping up everywhere that the DoE is simply rubber stamping everything that comes across their desk, in contrast to what would be a thorough and detailed review of the safety aspects of reactor plant and fuel facility designs by the NRC. However, this train of thought fails to hold for two major reasons.

  1. The endless headaches that come with NRC regulation are not present under the DoE, such as town hall meetings, lawfare from environmental activists, and political-ideology-based state laws and regulations. The lack of these problems alone reduces the timeline for regulatory review by years.
  2. Neither the DoE nor the reactor developer has any incentive to develop and progress a product that would not eventually meet the requirements of the NRC. As we thoroughly detailed in our coverage of the new addendum between the DoE and the NRC, there is no path to the commercialization of a reactor or fuel fabrication facility that does not travel through the NRC review process. The NRC is intimately involved with the DoE’s reviews conducted under the RPP and FLPP so concerns can be addressed early and commercialization can happen as rapidly as possible when that stage is reached.
Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 10:45

Retail Sales Unchanged in October

Calculated Risk -

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.5 percent from October 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent from October 2024. ... The August 2025 to September 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent to up 0.1 percent.
emphasis added
Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.1% in October.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.6% on a YoY basis.

Year-over-year change in Retail Sales The change in sales in October were below expectations and the previous two months were revised down.
A weak report.

California Sues Trump Admin Over $33 Million Withheld Due To Trucker English-Proficiency Rules

Zero Hedge -

California Sues Trump Admin Over $33 Million Withheld Due To Trucker English-Proficiency Rules

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The state of California filed suit against the Trump administration on Dec. 12 for withholding federal funds over truck driver English-proficiency requirements.

Trucks in Phoenix on Nov. 19, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

The suit centered on a decision by the Department of Transportation (DOT) to hold back $33 million in federal funding for commercial vehicle safety programs because of the state’s decision not to comply with the federal requirements.

The English language requirement was reinstated by the DOT in May of this year.

California responded to the withholding of funds by saying the decision was “arbitrary and capricious, an abuse of discretion, and contrary to law; imperils the safety of all persons driving in California; and threatens to wreak significant economic damage.”

According to the state’s suit, California enforces the English-language rule for commercial drivers and is in compliance with federal laws.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, the Transportation Department, and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration were named in the suit.

This isn’t the only action taken by the administration related to alien truck drivers’ presence on the road. In August of this year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the United States would pause the issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers.

The Department of Transportation did not immediately respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

The day before the suit, on Dec. 11, Duffy announced that more than 9,500 commercial truckers were taken out of service for failing English-language proficiency checks.

We’ve now knocked 9,500 truck drivers out of service for failing to speak our national language—ENGLISH!” Duffy wrote in a Dec. 10 post on X. “This administration will always put you and your family’s safety first.”

The total consists of actions taken since May of this year, when the policy was reinstated.

“America First means safety first,” Duffy said in May. “Americans are a lot safer on roads alongside truckers who can understand and interpret our traffic signs. This common-sense change ensures the penalty for failure to comply is more than a slap on the wrist.”

Late in November, the DOT warned that Pennsylvania could lose up to $75 million if the state does not immediately revoke the commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) issued to foreign nationals and “correct dangerous failures” identified in its CDL program.

Duffy warned that the DOT found that the state had violated safety regulations by issuing CDLs to foreigners.

The California suit comes about two weeks after a review by the DOT found that almost half of the truck driving schools in the United States were found to be noncompliant with federal guidelines.

Around 44 percent of the roughly 16,000 truck driving schools in the country could be forced to close.

Duffy said in a Dec. 1 statement that the Trump administration is “cracking down on every link in the illegal trucking chain.”

“Under [President] Joe Biden and [former Transportation Secretary] Pete Buttigieg, bad actors were able to game the system and let unqualified drivers flood our roadways,“ Duffy said. ”Their negligence endangered every family on America’s roadways, and it ends today.”

At the time, 3,000 commercial driver license training providers had been removed from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Training Provider Registry because of violations, and an additional 4,500 training providers were put on notice for possible noncompliance.

The centers were closed for falsifying or manipulating training data; failing to meet requirements for curricula, facility conditions, or instructor qualifications; and failing to maintain accurate documentation or refusing to provide those records during the federal audit.

The Trump administration gave the state of New York 30 days to comply with federal rules for nonresidents, saying it could lose approximately $73 million in funding.

“Fifty-three percent of New York’s non-domiciled CDLs were issued unlawfully or illegally,” Duffy said in a news conference on Dec. 12.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 10:25

Zelensky, Merz Hail NATO-Style US Security Guarantees As 'Real Progress' In Peace Deal

Zero Hedge -

Zelensky, Merz Hail NATO-Style US Security Guarantees As 'Real Progress' In Peace Deal

We've heard this all before, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and American officials are hailing progress after deep discussions on a peace deal to end the nearly four-year war with Russia. During the couple days of meetings in Berlin, US officials have said there's consensus from Ukraine and Europe on about 90% of the Trump-proposedd peace plan.

It could be finalized within days in order to present to the Kremlin, which is unlikely to go for any scheme which doesn't feature serious territorial concessions. Zelensky late Monday said the draft is "very workable" but that key questions remain unresolved.

Still, the land issue remains a front and central problem. "The Americans are trying to find a compromise," Zelensky said just ahead of visiting the Netherlands on Tuesday. "They are proposing a ‘free economic zone' (in the Donbas). And I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone' does not mean under the control of the Russian Federation."

One big breakthrough, from Kiev's point of view, is being reported, however. The NY Times writes that "The United States, Ukraine and Europe have agreed on a NATO-like guarantee for the future security of Ukraine, two U.S. officials said on Monday, as they tried to come up with a revised peace proposal that would deter future aggression and still satisfy Russia."

Via AFP

And a senior US official was cited in Politico as saying, "The basis of that agreement is basically to have really, really strong guarantees, Article 5-like." This has sparked optimism in Berlin (though again, we've seen this all before):

"We now have the chance for a real peace process," Merz said.

Zelensky concurred: "We have progress there. I have seen the details from the military that they have been working on, and they look very good, even though it is only the first draft."

Zelensky and his backers have only very belatedly agreed that future NATO membership is not on the table, but now they are focused on something that's sure to receive massive pushback from Moscow: 'Article 5'-style' guarantees. So the idea is that Ukraine would never become a formal member of NATO, but would still in the end receive the benefits of such an alliance in a de facto way. 

Article 5 says that an attack on one country is an attack on all. But this is why Russia is sure to see in this simply a recipe that sets up future direct war with the West over Ukraine. The precise language of what such a security guarantee will look like has yet to be disclosed.

The NY Times presents things as being somewhat up in the air on the issue and subject to future negotiatons:

Most of the conversations over the past two days, the officials said, focused on the security guarantee, which is intended to deter Russia from invading Ukrainian territory again in coming years. The two officials were vague about the specifics, though they said that Mr. Trump was willing to submit any final agreement on American commitments to Ukraine to the Senate for approval. They did not say whether the guarantee would become a formal treaty — akin to what the United States has with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and other allies — or whether any vote would simply be intended to show a bipartisan commitment.

Mr. Trump has said the United States will not contribute ground troops to a security force. But last summer he offered to patrol the skies and enforce a no-fly zone, in addition to continuing to provide Ukraine with intelligence from U.S. satellites and signals intercepts. Senior officials say that offer still stands.

Again, at least some of these scenarios would be seen by the Kremlin as merely a precursor to bigger war. As such "robust" security guarantees would put Moscow and the NATO alliance a significant step closer to direct war, instead of the current state of things which remain more on a proxy war basis.

Meanwhile there is indeed plenty of cause for skepticism:

Moscow has recently warned that Zelensky's sudden vocalization of willingness to make all kinds of concessions, such as preparations to hold elections, are but a ploy in order to buy time on and take off the immediate pressure from Trump.

For example, he's said he would be willing to prepare to hold elections in 60 days, but only if international backers could guarantee the freedom, fairness, and safety of such a vote. Likely this would mean demanding of Russia's military some kind of short-term ceasefire for Ukrainians to go to the polls. As we featured earlier, geopolitical analyst and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer has a pessimistic take on the 'progress' being reported out of Berlin.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 10:05

US PMIs Plunge To 6-Month Lows In December

Zero Hedge -

US PMIs Plunge To 6-Month Lows In December

With 'soft' survey data slumping during (and after) the government shutdown...

...this morning's preliminary December PMIs are not helping as both S&P Global's Manufacturing and Services surveys disappointed.

  • US Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.2 to 51.8 (worse than the 52.1 expected) - 5 month low

  • US Services PMI fell from 54.1 to 52.9 (worse than the 54.0 expected) - 6 month low

And all that in spite of 'solid' hard data...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index fell to 53.0 in December from 54.2 in November, according to the 'flash' reading (based on about 85% of usual survey responses).

“The flash PMI data for December suggest that the recent economic growth spurt is losing momentum," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Although the survey data point to annualized GDP expansion of about 2.5% over the fourth quarter, growth has now slowed for two months."

The latest reading was the lowest since June, though continues to indicate robust economic growth. Output has now risen continually for 35 months.

Despite the decline, US PMIs remain well above the rest of the world...

With new sales growth waning especially sharply in the lead up to the holiday season, Williamson notes that "economic activity may soften further as we head into 2026."

The signs of weakness are also broad-based, with a nearstalling of inflows of work into the vast services economy accompanied by the first fall in factory orders for a year.

"While manufacturers continue to report higher output, lower sales point to unsustainable production levels which will need to be lowered unless demand revives in the new year.

Service providers reported one of the slowest months for sales growth since 2023. "

Firms have also lost some confidence in the outlook and have restricted their hiring in December in accordance with the more challenging business environment.

"A key concern is rising costs, with inflation jumping sharply to its highest since November 2022, which fed through to one of the steepest increases in selling charges for the past three years. "

Higher prices are again being widely blamed on tariffs, according to Williamson, with an initial impact on manufacturing now increasingly spilling over to services to broaden the affordability problem.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:59

UK To Introduce 'Anti-Muslim Hate' Definition

Zero Hedge -

UK To Introduce 'Anti-Muslim Hate' Definition

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Ministers in the UK are steeling themselves for a storm of criticism as Communities Secretary Steve Reed prepares to unveil a new official definition of “anti-Muslim hate” this week. 

Critics, led by the Free Speech Union, warn that the expansive terminology risks creating a de facto blasphemy law, stifling legitimate debate on issues like grooming gangs and Islamist terrorism.

The shift away from the term “Islamophobia” aims to provide guidance for public bodies, councils, and businesses in combating prejudice against Muslims. Yet, according to leaked drafts, it could label prejudicial stereotyping or “racialisation designed to incite hate” as hateful acts, potentially encompassing discussions that highlight patterns in crimes predominantly involving Muslim perpetrators.

The Free Speech Union has been vocal in its opposition, arguing that any official definition will inevitably chill free speech.

In a post on X, the organization stated: “An official definition of Islamophobia would stifle free speech, particularly discussion of important topics such as the grooming gangs scandal and Islamist terrorism.”

“Blasphemy laws were abolished in 2008 — 17 years ago. This government appears intent on resurrecting them and is due to publish the long-awaited definition this week. No religion in a free society should be beyond legitimate criticism or challenge,” the post added.

Toby Young, General Secretary and founder of the Free Speech Union, described the move as prioritizing one faith over others, alienating broad swaths of the population. 

“Prioritising Islam over other faiths will confirm the view of white working-class voters that they’re being treated like second class citizens in their own country, while Muslim community groups in marginal Labour constituencies like Birmingham Yardley will condemn the definition for not including the word ‘Islamophobia’,” Young said. He added: “It’s a fudge that will please no one.”

The warnings echo broader concerns from legal experts and watchdogs. The Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has cautioned that adopting such a definition could break the law by imposing a “chilling effect” on freedom of expression and harming community cohesion. 

In a letter to Reed, the EHRC highlighted potential “inconsistency” and “confusion” for courts, noting that existing laws already protect against discrimination and hate crimes.

“It is unclear what role a new definition would play in addressing abuse targeted at Muslims, given that legal protections against discrimination and hate crime already exist,” the commission stated.

Jonathan Hall, KC, the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, has also opposed the definition, arguing it targets a religion rather than protecting individuals. He warned of “overzealous” enforcement by authorities, which could threaten free speech through “spongy or inaccurate” interpretations.

Government sources insist the definition won’t inhibit raising public interest concerns, even sensitive ones. A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesman emphasized: “This work has always been about stamping out hatred and we’ve been clear from the beginning that we would never consider a definition that stifles free speech or stops concerns being raised in the public interest. This will remain at the forefront of our minds as we review the definition.”

Despite these assurances, the Free Speech Union points to the abolition of blasphemy laws in 2008 as a hard-won victory now under threat. 

Their campaign urges citizens to contact MPs via a tool on their website to oppose the measure, underscoring that “we already have laws that protect against religious discrimination and hatred. We do not need a return to blasphemy laws 17 years after their abolition.”

The UK’s push reflects a pattern of governments weaponizing terminology to police thought, often at the expense of open debate.

As the Free Speech Union warns, this “fudge” risks alienating everyone while eroding core freedoms. 

In a truly free society, no topic should be off-limits, and no faith shielded from scrutiny. Defending speech now means pushing back against these creeping restrictions before they silence us all.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:45

Comments on November Employment Report

Calculated Risk -

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 - and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program). The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.
Earlier: November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs
Average Hourly Wages

WagesThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in October. 
Part Time for Economic Reasons

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in November to 5.49 million from 4.58 million in September.  This is well above the pre-pandemic levels and the highest levels since mid-2021.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.7% from 8.0% in September. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is well above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.91 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.81 million in September.
This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 - and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program).  The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.
This was a weak employment report.  

Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Investigation Appears To Be On The Brink Of Implicating Zelensky

Zero Hedge -

Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Investigation Appears To Be On The Brink Of Implicating Zelensky

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The New York Times’ recent report about his government’s responsibility for the worst corruption scandal in Ukraine’s history suggests that the walls are closing in and his foreign media allies are jumping ship out of desperation to retain some of their credibility after years of deifying him.

It was earlier assessed that “Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Investigation Is Turning Into A Rolling Coup” after it took down Zelensky’s grey cardinal Andrey Yermak, consequently weakened the already shaky alliance keeping him in power, and thus placed more pressure upon him to cede Donbass. The latest development concerns the New York Times’ (NYT) report about how “Zelensky’s Government Sabotaged Oversight, Allowing Corruption to Fester”, which brings the investigation closer to implicating him.

It also represents a stunning narrative reversal after the NYT spent the past nearly four years practically deifying him only to now inform their global audience that “President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration has stacked boards with loyalists, left seats empty or stalled them from being set up at all. Leaders in Kyiv even rewrote company charters to limit oversight, keeping the government in control and allowing hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent without outsiders poking around.”

Predictably, “Mr. Zelensky’s administration has blamed Energoatom’s supervisory board for failing to stop the corruption. But it was Mr. Zelensky’s government itself that neutered Energoatom’s supervisory board, The Times found.” Just as scandalously, “The Times found political interference not only at Energoatom but also at the state-owned electricity company Ukrenergo as well as at Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency”, the latter of which Kiev plans to merge with the State Logistics Operator.

None of this was a secret either: “European leaders have privately criticized but reluctantly tolerated Ukrainian corruption for years, reasoning that supporting the fight against Russia’s invasion was paramount. So, even as Ukraine undermined outside oversight, European money kept flowing.” The NYT then detailed the political meddling employed by Zelensky’s government to “impede the (supervisory) board’s ability to act” and therefore facilitate the worst corruption scandal in Ukraine’s history.

Their report is significant since it strongly suggests that there’s now tacit consensus between the NYT’s liberal-globalist backers, the conservative-nationalist Trump Administration, and the US’ permanent bureaucracy (“deep state”) about the need to expose Zelensky’s corruption. Gone are the days when he was presented as the next Churchill since he’s now being portrayed as no less corrupt than the strongmen in Global South countries that most Americans have never heard of or can place on a map.

To be sure, the aforementioned liberal-globalists and members of the “deep state” (oftentimes one and the same) still oppose Trump’s envisaged endgame in Ukraine, but they seem to have concluded that a ‘phased leadership transition’ is in their and Ukraine’s interests.

It appears inevitable that the anti-corruption investigation will soon implicate Zelensky so it’s best for them to get ahead of the curve in order to retain some credibility among their audience and possibly shape the next government.

Their goal isn’t to facilitate Ukrainian concessions like Trump wants in exchange for Putin agreeing to a profitable resource-centric strategic partnership after the conflict ends but to clean up some corruption and thus optimize government operations in the hope of inspiring the West to rally around Ukraine. It’s likely a losing bet, however, since the political momentum favors Trump’s vision. In fact, his opponents’ narrative reversal arguably advances Trump’s goal, but they’ll accept that to save their credibility.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:15

Payrolls Paradox: November Jobs Stronger Than Expected But Unemployment Rate Jumps To 4 Year High

Zero Hedge -

Payrolls Paradox: November Jobs Stronger Than Expected But Unemployment Rate Jumps To 4 Year High

Ahead of today's jobs report, Goldman Delta One Head Rich Privorotsky wrote that with the October print backward looking and mostly govt related and irrelevant, "anywhere near consensus for November (+/-25k of 50k) feels like the sweet spot…that said, hard to see the FOMC feeling compelled to halt accommodation or even talk about hiking if labor momentum is still sub-100k on trend. Too cold (<25k or negative) and the pro-cyclical rally we’ve seen has to be questioned. Probably bigger risk to the market narrative is a re-acceleration in labor which is consistent with some of the bonce in open jobs visible in the higher frequency data."

With that in mind, moments ago the the BLS published a very mixed report, with payrolls coming solid, thanks to a big beat in the November print, offset by an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, above estimates, and the highest since Sept 2021.

Here are the details: in October, the US lost 105K jobs, entirely due to a plunge in government jobs (more below) but this was offset by the November jump of 64K jobs, which came in higher than the 50K expected. 

Naturally, the negative revisions continued: the BLS also reported that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000.  With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported. 

Of note, government employment tumbled in November by -6,000. This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

But while payrolls were generally solid, the unemployment rate was a problem and is what will likely prompt the Fed to cut more: in November, the unemp rate rose to 4.6% (with October blank), worse than the 4.5% estimate and the highest since Sept 2021.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers was 16.3% in November, an increase from September. The jobless rates for adult men (4.1 percent), adult women (4.1 percent),  Whites (3.9 percent), Blacks (8.3 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), all rose, and just the unemp rate for Hispanics (5.0 percent) dropped.

Both the labor force participation rate (62.5 percent) and the employment-population ratio (59.6 percent) were little changed from September. These measures showed little or no change over the year. 

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $36.86. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%, lower than the 3.6% expected. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in November. In manufacturing, the average workweek changed little at 40.0 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. 

Taking a closer look at the report we find the following details:

  • The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks was 2.5 million in November, up by 316,000 from  September. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in November and accounted for 24.3 percent of all unemployed people. 
  • The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
  • The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 6.1 million in November, was little changed from September. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
  • Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.8 million in November, was little changed from September. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little at 651,000 in November. 

Taking a closer look at the monthly change in jobs, employment rose in health care and construction while federal government employment declined by 6,000, following a loss of 162,000 in October. 

  • In November, health care added 46,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 39,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+24,000),  hospitals (+11,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+11,000).
  • Construction employment grew by 28,000 in November, as nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 19,000 jobs. Construction employment had changed little over the prior 12 months. 
  • Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in November (+18,000), primarily in individual and family services (+13,000). 
  • In November, employment edged down in transportation and warehousing (-18,000), reflecting a job loss in couriers and messengers (-18,000). Transportation and warehousing employment has declined  by 78,000 since reaching a peak in February. 
  • The big outlier was Federal government employment, which continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp  decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

And visually:

While the quantitative aspects of the report were ok, the qualitative were ugly. In November, the number of full-time workers plunged by 983K from September to 134.17 million. At the same time, in the two months since Sept, the number of part-time workers soared by over 1 million (1.025 million to be precise) to 29.486 million...

... the highest on record while full-time workers tumbled to a 2025 low!

As for the closely watched "immigrant" shift, in November there were no fireworks here, with Native Born workers up 114K, while foreign-born increased by 58.

There was more: the number of people who need more than one job to make ends meet soared by almost 500K in the 2 months since Sept to 9.301 million, the highest on record!

Overall, this jobs report was weaker than it will be spun for political reasons, which however is precisely what the market is looking for because as Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson put it, "bad news is now good news for stocks."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:02

Hunting Season Opens: 18 Sanctioned Tankers Lurking In Venezuelan Waters

Zero Hedge -

Hunting Season Opens: 18 Sanctioned Tankers Lurking In Venezuelan Waters

President Trump's gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, off Venezuela's coast, has the effect of a maritime blockade, disrupting oil flows to Cuba and to global markets via shadow-fleet tankers. The Trump administration calculates that choking off this oil trade could trigger cascading economic stress, first in Cuba and then in Venezuela, ultimately accelerating the end goal of regime change in Caracas.

The latest report from Axios shows that the Trump administration's seizure of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Caribbean is only in the early innings, with 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships currently in Venezuelan waters.

Last week, a US Special Forces unit seized the tanker Skipper, which was carrying crude contracted by Cubametales, Cuba's state-run oil trading firm.

The tanker was part of a dark fleet that shipped crude from Venezuela to Cuba and onward to Asia.

Samir Madani, co-founder of the firm Tanker Trackers, told Axios that of the 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships off the country's coast, eight are classified as "Very Large Crude Carriers" (VLCCs), such as Skipper, which can carry nearly 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. "It's quite a buffet for the U.S. to choose from," he said.

Given the unprecedented US naval presence in the Caribbean, mainly offshore of Venezuela in international waters, the Trump administration's theory of gunboat diplomacy centers on cutting off all support to Cuba. To do that, it follows the money, starting with oil flows via dark tanker fleets. Once those oil flows are disrupted, Venezuela falls, and then Cuba follows.

Related:

Axios quoted one Trump adviser as saying, "We have to wait for them to move. They're sitting at the dock. Once they move, we'll go to court, get a warrant, and then get them," adding, "But if they make us wait too long, we might get a warrant to get them there," in Venezuelan waters.

And gunboat diplomacy it is.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:55

'K-Shaped' Economy? Core Retail Sales Surged In October

Zero Hedge -

'K-Shaped' Economy? Core Retail Sales Surged In October

Amid the growing specter of a 'k-shaped' economy, BofA's (almost) omniscient analysts forecast strong retail sales for October - considerably stronger than Bloomberg's consensus of a marginal uptick.

BofA was wrong - very wrong - as the headline retail sales was unchanged MoM, which pulled sales down to +3.5% YoY (still relatively strong)...

Source: Bloomberg

However, Ex-Autos, and Ex-Autos and Gas both beat expectations.

The figures indicate consumer spending picked up steam in the early weeks of the holiday-shopping season as shoppers, many worried about their jobs and frustrated by the high cost of living, sought out deals.

Eight out of 13 retail categories posted increases, including solid advances at department stores and online merchants.

Motor vehicles fell 1.6%, held down in part by the expiration of federal tax incentives on electric vehicles. Cheaper gasoline prices held down the value of gas station receipts.

However, there is a silver lining, as the Retail Sales Control Group (which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations) - which feeds into the GDP calc - surged 0.8% MoM - double expectations and the biggest MoM jump since June...

Source: Bloomberg

That MoM jump leaves sales up a strong 5.1% YoY and while the 'k-shaped' economy continues to weigh on market sentiment, it is not evident in the aggregate data and supports solid Q4 GDP growth.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:44

Transcript: MiB: Stephen Cohen, BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Stephen Cohen, BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio

Barry Ritholtz: This week on the podcast. Another banger, Steve Cohen is BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and Head of Product Solutions. BlackRock runs three and a half trillion dollars to the world’s largest asset manager. Their iShares ETF division is over $5 trillion. There are a few people in the world better situated to identify what is happening in the world of asset and wealth management than Steve Cohen. Not just fixed income, active index, bitcoin digital assets. They’re also moving into privates and alternatives. Whether that’s an ETF or just part of that platform is something else entirely. I, I thought this conversation was fascinating and I think you will also, with no further ado, BlackRock’s, chief Product Officer and head of Product Solutions, Stephen Cohen.

Stephen Cohen: It’s great to be here.

Barry Ritholtz: We’re gonna talk a lot about what you do at BlackRock and how the company has been growing, but I wanna start with your background degree in economics from Southampton College. Was the plan always to go into investment strategy or what were you thinking back then?

Stephen Cohen: I’m not sure I had a plan. I, I studied economics at school and then at university and I, I was always, I was always very interested in this kind of concept of the markets. I didn’t have any background, no family background in, in markets or investing, but I always found reading up about markets interesting. And, and what kind of got me in, it was a slight fluke. We were talking about flukes before the show. One of my neighbors was a telecoms engineer, and he used to go round to all the banks installing the dealer boards. And he, one day, and I was talking to him and he, one day.

Barry Ritholtz: Various ATMs, automatic tele machines, we call ’em here.

Stephen Cohen: The phone phone systems that, that you use on the trading floors, you know, that come with all  the hoot and holler and all that kind of stuff, I think meant

Barry Ritholtz: Those were the big, at ATM manufacturers way

Stephen Cohen: , they were. And, and he said, so I got talking about em and I mentioned this interest and he said, well, why don’t you do a day’s work experience with me? We’ll go to a bank. So we went to one of the banks, I can’t remember which one it was, and I walked onto this trading floor, you know, for someone who had no experience or never experienced this before, it was amazing. There was people shouting, there was screens and flashing numbers and stuff like that. And I thought, you know what? This, this looks pretty cool. This buzz was, was so the kind of combination of an opportunity to work in something that, that took economics and markets and the world, and then this kind of feeling of a buzzy environment, that was the thing. And so I applied to a number of banks and outta university got an opportunity to go to UBS.

Barry Ritholtz: So that was your first gig right? Outta school you were working with convertibles and fixed income and something similar at ING Barings. Yeah. Tell us about your, your work at UBS and ING. What, what sort of job was it?

Stephen Cohen: So I worked, I originally started in fixed income and, and then, and then went into convertible bonds. And a lot of what I spent my time doing was kind of more market strategist type of roles. So talking to clients about what was going on in the markets, what was going on in the bond markets, trade, I, you know, developing trade ideas for clients. And, and then that’s also how I got involved in spending quite a lot of time on the Japanese markets, which I found, you know, incredibly interesting and really got to understand kinda the Japanese culture and, and the, the way, the way the country operated. And

Barry Ritholtz: Is that what led you to Nomura? Or did Nomura come first and then the Japanese exposure that

Stephen Cohen:  Yeah, it, it did. So getting involved in Japan kind lent me to, to doing, to doing convertible bonds originally at ING and then with a group of us at Namur. And, and that’s where I spent a lot more time on the Japanese markets. And I think it’s all part of how you, you know, I think back to to those days, you know, Japan was very different to what it is kind of now the market, definitely the market at the time was about nine, the nicko was about 9,009, 10,000 given where?

Barry Ritholtz: Down from 39,000.

Stephen Cohen: Yeah. Now we’re back at 46,000. So there’s like a proper v shape of that market,

Barry Ritholtz: Right. Only took three and a half decades,

Stephen Cohen: Only took three and a half decades. And I, and I managed to do the middle bit, which was not necessarily the most exciting bit, I’ve gotta be honest. But I think, you know, again, it was a, what was interesting about it is you learn about kind of an, an economy and therefore a stock market that is in such a different place as it was then to, you know, looking at the US market or the European markets at the time.

Barry Ritholtz: So that raises a really interesting question. How do you think, how do you think about the 1990s, even the two thousands Euro nomura till 2011? How do you think about those decades versus today? It, that world doesn’t seem like it’s that long ago, but it really feels like it was so different.

Stephen Cohen: It feels incredibly different. I think for Japan it’s completely different. And you know, if you go back to, as you say, the late nineties, early two thousands, you know, the banking crisis that was part of the bubble and the collapse had still not been solved. And it was only really in the early, early to mid two thousands that they finally kind of got their arms around the banking system. And one thing you read about history, and unless you can get the banking system operating properly and lending, you really struggle to get an economy going. The second thing that’s really interesting I think is so different is back then you would, every six months, every year there would be a government led fiscal impulse. Right? And, you know, they used to call it the building the roads to nowhere. Right. You know, paving the entire country. Right. Just gotta kind of spend and spend and spend. And the reaction of the market to that was, this is gonna have no impact. The reaction now to fiscal spending is actually this is, you know, great, this is kind of part of the economy. The, the country kinda being back on its feet. You’re now talking about inflation being potentially an issue in Japan. Whereas there, it was all about deflation. So it’s quite amazing how it has turned around. And you’re seeing that in the bond market and just the yields.

Barry Ritholtz: One, one of the things I’m kind of fascinated about following the Japan, Japan bubble popping in 89 and how long it took to recover from that is the concept, and I’m apologies in advance from my mispronunciation of risu, which is the Japanese concept of these vertically integrated companies, manufacturing, retail, banking, like just every sector, if there’s a banking problem, the entire economy seems to run into trouble. ’cause that whole vertical Hmm. Sometimes it’s Mitsubishi, sometimes it’s whatever. Each of these entities are giant. And if the bank has a problem, wow, you’re really doing some damage.

Stephen Cohen: Yeah. ’cause I think if you look back to the history, and again, this is, this is changing and, and, and different to the way we’d think about kinda western markets and companies, but Japan, historically it was a bank lending market. You, you got financing through bank lending, all the stock market. And so banks were just so central to the way the economy operated. And you see parallels to that in Europe, a little bit less here in the US it’s very different now. You know, there’s the, there’s the banking sector, which is obviously very critical to the way companies and financing. But you have this huge kind of private sector. You have private lending, direct lending, things like that. So again, it’s good. I think one of the things I’ve learned over my career and had the opportunity to work in different markets is you start to see these, the way these economies operate is different and therefore the, the impact on the markets and therefore investors is very, very different.

Barry Ritholtz: So you stay at Mura till 2011. How did you, what brought you from Mura to BlackRock?

Stephen Cohen: I had an opportunity, you know, having had a lot of great experiences. You know, 2011 BlackRock was probably 18 months into the integration of the iShares business or the, the indexing business. And really focused on how do we expand this business, particularly how do we expand iShares this, you know, this ETF business. And back in 2011, Europe European ETFs was still a very nascent industry. You know, now it’s like a two and a half trillion dollar industry. I, European iShares is over a trillion dollars. Back then it was very much still the very early days. And you could see what is, what was happening in the states. And so when I was speaking to BlackRock, you could see this really interesting opportunity to, to kind of take all of what I’d done before in terms of the market’s kinda background and the breadth of experience, and then apply it to this thing that was still pretty new.

And the kind of mission was how do you educate people about what an ETF is? How do you help people start to think about how to use an ETF in a portfolio? And by the way, also, what are the ETFs that don’t exist yet that could exist? And again, you always have to, it’s quite hard. You always have to cast a, you know, Barry, you always have to cast your mind back to what it was then versus your perspective of where you are today. It was still fairly, you know, plain vanilla

Barry Ritholtz: So go back to the 1990s, Im pretty sure the Qs were around then, and SPY might’ve been around, but this is before really iShares was still part of Barclays. But no one really thought that ETFs were a giant market waiting to take place, or I should say very few people thought that the ones who did ended up being at the head of a giant wave. What made you realize 15 years ago that, hey, this iShares thing is gonna be big one day?

Stephen Cohen: Honestly, it was talking to the people in iShares. It was having kind of been introduced to them and having been approached to, to go and talk to them. It was, I learned a lot from just sitting down and, and understanding this. I’d sat in banks, we traded ETFs. They were, to be honest, a very, very small component of what we, of what we did. It was only really when I spoke to the people at iShares and the BlackRock and understood the history of how iShares had grown and where it was then. And the, that sense of mission, that sense of kind of the purpose of giving more access to investing to, to people, you know, and creating more transparency that they had lived as they grow in the US business. And they were growing the European business. And that kind of just captured you. And I think frankly in the last 15 years I’ve seen that and been fortunately been part of kind of driving that. But it was very clear that there was a big opportunity to do something different in an industry, an asset management industry that hadn’t really been shaken up. And I think one thing that ETFs have done, and iShares has led this is really shaken up the industry on behalf of end investors in a couple of ways.

Barry Ritholtz: At at the very least they’re very low cost. And it’s raised questions about our do most, not all, but do most active managers actually justify their fees relative to their performance. And then second, helping to move a lot of mom and pop investors, at least having a core as passive indexing as opposed to an allocation that’s nothing but active managers. I mean, iShares has been the biggest driver of that. When you started at BlackRock, what was, what was the first job?

Stephen Cohen: So I started in the iShares business and I actually set up an investment strategy team. And what we did was go out and talk to clients about what was going on in markets. You know, we were part of BlackRock, now I shares was part of BlackRock. And so there’s, you know, a huge pedigree of investing and how do you take that externally to, to our clients and educate them about how ETFs could be used to implement these ideas, build portfolios. I have to say in the early days, a lot of it was just educating people on what, what is an ETF? Like how does it actually work? How, how, what is a creation? What is a redemption? And what do I need to understand and know? Secondly, how do I then think about putting them in a, in a portfolio? And what’s interesting, I remember a couple of years in probably this probably 18 minutes, months into my time at BlackRock, we did a big study on how do you blend active and indexing. And we were very allergic to the word passive, right? Like, because you know, we used to go out and say to people, which we still do, you know, every decision you make is active, right? That’s right.

Barry Ritholtz: If you market cap weighted, I mean, it could have, it’s a decision been equal cap.

Stephen Cohen: Totally. You know, investing in US equities is a decision, it’s an active decision. Then deciding to use an ETF is an active decision. So we would, you know, we would talk to clients about, and what does it mean to use an ETF? How does it fit with, with active management? Which again, go back to, I think it’s pretty well accepted now. I think BlackRock has, and the ETF industry has played a big, big role in this, but the concept of blending, indexing and active managers and alpha in one portfolio is that’s, that’s kind of very accepted. People gonna get that. It’s pretty standard. It wasn’t back then 10, 14 years ago. And in some respects it was slightly religious in terms of indexing or like, you are either passive or you’re active.

Barry Ritholtz: I recall the phrase that was used in the two thousands core and satellite; And, and you don’t hear that all that much anymore. Now it’s, you have a passive core and you’re, you’re decorating it with active choices around it.

Stephen Cohen: Yeah. It’s kinda how do you get the best out of, out of everything. How, how do you say, you know what, actually, here’s an area where I think that we can deliver alpha, which is really what you’re, when you say active, what you’re really saying is like alpha something, alpha something, something beyond the index. And I come back to a point you made earlier, Barry, about how the industry shifted. I think what ETFs did is they sh shone a light on what is, what is performance, right? And you know, if you can get the index through an etf, it’s very efficient. Then as an active manager, you’ve gotta deliver something more. And many, many active managers of BlackRock do deliver more. But I think that that element of the more became a very important component of the industry and component of how for many investors, they could then blend these, these different tools together to create better portfolios. And I think that’s the journey to me in the last kind of 12, you know, 12, 14 years. It’s been so exciting.

Barry Ritholtz: You said when you began, you went out and spoke to a variety of BlackRock clients. Were these mom and pop investors, were these institutional clients? Were they brokers and RIAs that are investing in ETFs on behalf of their clients? Who were the folks that you first reached out to? It

Stephen Cohen: Was pretty broad actually. It, it tended to be wealth managers and it tended to be institutional investors, which would be, you know, primarily pension funds. But what’s interesting is how that has, how that’s expanded over the last, again, the last kind of decade. You know, if I look at, if I look at the breadth of users now is anything from central banks through to, you know, retail investors in 401k plans or the equivalent in Europe. And I think that’s been one of the secrets to the, to, to why ETFs have grown so quickly is that they actually are very much a product or a tool for anybody and everybody. So it started very much with I would say kind of wealth manages and pension funds. But it grew out and out and out and frankly in Europe we learned a lot from the way the US industry had had grown. We talk all, all the time about how the European ETF industry is probably about 10 years behind the us And so there’s a bit of a roadmap there. And you know, I think we’re seeing that happen in real time.

Barry Ritholtz:  When I over at Europe and, and so especially the UK, it seems like index adoption has been very slow. People haven’t quite bought into the concept of, hey, before you go after alpha, at least start with beta. That hasn’t really found a lot of traction there yet. Or are you seeing that start to change in Europe?

Stephen Cohen: We’ve seen that change. It’s definitely behind the US but it is definitely happening. And I think the same forces and drivers that we’ve seen in the US are very much applicable to Europe and ultimately will be to Asia as well, which I think will go on that kind of same journey. So I think it’s just more of a matter of time or timing as to where we are now versus versus versus the US And there are different country dynamics that everywhere in the world play into why different parts of the industry, you know, move quicker or or slower. But I think the direction’s definitely the same.

Barry Ritholtz: Different regulatory regimes, different tax treatment technology. Is the technology really all that different? You would think that adoption maybe some countries on a lag but not 10 years.

Stephen Cohen: Yeah, I think it’s just, so I, I think the last 10 years in the US if we are today in somewhere like Europe, in the ETF industry where the US was 10 years ago, I think the next 10 years in Europe will be faster than the last 10 years in the us. Makes sense. Yeah, it’s ’cause I think that partly because there is a, there is a roadmap that the US has created, it’s different ’cause of regulation, all the things that you, that you mentioned, but I think that everything is happening so much faster now and, and you’re seeing that in ETFs, you’re seeing that in other parts of the industry as well.

Barry Ritholtz: So let’s talk a little bit about what you’ve been doing at BlackRock for almost the past 15 years. You begin in 2011, the growth must have been explosive. What was that like watching this rocket ship take off?

Stephen Cohen: It’s been fantastic. It’s been an amazing experience. You know, the firm has grown so quickly in the last 10, 15 years and not just grown in terms of assets, which is obviously one way to measure growth, but also just the breadth of what BlackRock does for our clients and the breadth of the number of clients that we talk to. What’s, I think, so for, for someone like me, what what’s so been so great is the ability to be involved in lots of different parts of the firm. And, you know, whether that was, again, growing the European iShares business, whether that was running fixed income iShares, which was a fantastic opportunity and time in, or moment in time I should say, in terms of really not just growing fixed income ETFs, but changing the bond market and the impact we’ve had there to now where, again, the breadth of the company with private markets and things like that. So it has been a, a great journey to be on personally, but also to see it from the inside.

Barry Ritholtz: Can you explain what a chief product officer does at a large asset manager? It’s sort of an unusual title in the world of investing.

Stephen Cohen: Yeah, so there are a number of things that, that I look at and my, my team look at. One is how do we continue to make sure that our product range is at the forefront of innovation in terms of where the industry is going. How do we make sure that what our clients are looking for with delivering in whatever format they’re looking at. And I think one of the biggest shifts that we’ve seen in the industry, we talked before about kind of how you blend active indexing kind of together, how that’s become more commonplace and kind of more, more accepted. I think the other thing that is happening is that the way all of our clients are, you know, consuming investments or accessing markets is also shifting. So this concept that, you know, pretty much for the whole time that we were growing the iShares business, when we talked about growing ETFs, we were really talking about, we, we were also talking about growing indexing.

00:21:29 That was very synonymous, right? When you talk about growing ETFs, now you’re not just talking about growing indexing, you’re talking about lots of different things, active ETFs, digital assets. And so I think this concept of how we ensure that as we look across all of the investment capabilities we have as a firm that we want to bring to our clients, that we’re delivering them in a way that works for our clients, that requires us to think a little bit differently to, to the way we’ve had to in the past and the way I think the way the industry has. And so that’s why we’ve brought all this together in, into my role and my, my group. And that includes driving the iShares business and, and the growth of ETFs, making ETFs more central to, to what we do in the firm, but also looking across all of our liquid active business, our private markets businesses with our investment teams and those business leads to, to ensure that our product range, you know, works for our clients. And then helping them, helping our clients actually get the best out of what we have. I started an investment strategy. We spent a lot of time talking to clients about what’s going on in markets, how to build better portfolios, how to get the best out of the tools that they have that we need to build. And then what’s next? What’s, what’s the next trend or theme that’s that’s on people’s minds.

00:22:47 [Speaker Changed] So, so I’m hearing two approaches. One is a top down, Hey, what’s going on in the world? What’s out there that’s interesting that perhaps we’re not addressing and a bottoms up. What are clients asking for? What do they think they want? What do we think they need? What, what’s the key driver of, of new offerings? We could talk a little bit about ibit, which is a unicorn. The, the Bitcoin ETF approaching a hundred billion dollars in assets. I think it could be the fastest ETF to a hundred billion dollars. I don’t even know what’s, what’s close maybe GLD, but that, that was a long time ago. How, how do you think about coming up with new products? How much of it is driven by client demand? And how much of it is driven by just looking from the top down and saying, here’s a hole that we really should fill.

00:23:45 [Speaker Changed] It’s a, it’s a real mixture. It is, you know, we’ll have a, a lot of ideas, we’ll have a lot of ideas that are driven by investment views we have as a firm by our investment teams by working with other people in the industry. And we will combine that with what we’re hearing from clients and where clients are, you know, we we’re engaging with clients all the time around, you know, their portfolios and seeing where are there kind of gaps in a portfolio or where are there, sometimes it’s, sometimes there are investment opportunities, but there isn’t a way to get to it. Again, come back to what ETFs have done. Like how do you give that access to, to something that was new. If you think about Ibit, you know, Bitcoin obviously had grown already to a pretty sizable kind of industry.

00:24:37 [Speaker Changed] I think when Ibit launched, Bitcoin was a little over a trillion dollars, something like that. Roughly

00:24:42 [Speaker Changed] That, yeah. Yeah. And, and so there was a sizable kinda industry already out there, but for many clients or many potential investors, the ease, the comfort, the knowledge understanding of of an ETF wrapper was a great way of allowing them to buy into crypto Bitcoin in this case and make it again, potentially a bigger part of the portfolio. What’s interesting is the number of, you know, in, in that explosive growth that Ibit has had, the number of buyers, investors of Ibit who were already holders of Bitcoin in, you know, other forms was quite notable. And so I think it kind of tests to this idea of actually how do you access different markets sometimes in quite traditional ways and how do you bridge between this kind of traditional world and this decentralized world? And you’re seeing the same thing with ether as well with our ether fund.

00:25:42 [Speaker Changed] So, you know, the, the classic Bitcoin issue is, wait, I have to make sure that this drive doesn’t get damaged. I have to keep in the safe. What’s my password? Hey, this is a lot of money and it’s a bigger pain in the neck to keep track of then the rest of my assets. I can own this in an ETF. Why do I ever wanna own Bitcoin directly? Seems to be what a lot of people are saying. And

00:26:06 [Speaker Changed] That, and that’s what we heard over and over again. Both again from people who had held or hold Bitcoin in digital wallets and felt that this was a kind of a, an easier, better way to hold it.

00:26:19 [Speaker Changed] Especially when you read the numbers. 25% of all coins ever mined. It might even be 30% have been lost. Either the drives were damaged or the passwords were lost, which is,

00:26:29 [Speaker Changed] There’s some great stories out there. Crazy

00:26:31 [Speaker Changed] Guy who went out and bought a landfill ’cause he’s,

00:26:33 [Speaker Changed] Because he was trying to find the

00:26:35 [Speaker Changed] Of $200 million worth of Bitcoin on the drive that was accidentally Yeah. Thrown away. I mean,

00:26:40 [Speaker Changed] So, you know, putting in an I share probably would’ve been a, an at least an easier way of of right of owning a landfill. It,

00:26:49 [Speaker Changed] It’s, it’s kind of amazing, but it raises a question that I’ve been thinking about for a while. Alternatives and privates, whether it’s private equity, private debt, private infrastructure and real assets are probably the fastest growing segment of the market. Are we ever gonna see something like that in an ETF wrapper, an illiquid alt in an ETF,

00:27:17 [Speaker Changed] Possibly? Look, it’s definitely something that a lot of people are looking at, including ourselves. But there are a lot of ways to, I think the biggest story I think people jump towards the kind of private markets and ETFs and the real story is how do you open up access appropriately for more people to access private markets as part of the portfolio. So if we think about a world which we believe in which you are kinda moving from, call it 60 40, you know, the traditional right portfolio to more of a 50, 30, 20 where 20 is private markets and that’s applicable to somebody who owns a defined benefit scheme. In fact, they’ve got that already probably more through the, the way the scheme’s managed. But actually if you then apply that to say to other pension types, like a defined contribution scheme or a wealth investor, that kind of journey towards incorporating more private markets into a portfolio for all of the diversification reasons that, you know, we’ve talked about a lot that how that happens is, is the real work and that may end up requiring an ETF, but I think there are lots of other ways that, you know, that can open up the door to private markets being a bigger part.

00:28:26 Either either a completely new part or, or a bigger part of a portfolio for, you know, an individual retiree or an individual investor. Again, it comes back to what we were saying earlier on about rather than thinking about different product types, an ETF or a mutual fund being associated with one type of strategy, it’s actually saying what are the strategies that we believe would help a client, an investor have a better portfolio for whatever their goals are? And then how do you best put that together?

00:28:58 [Speaker Changed] So it’s less and what unique, less about the product? More about the solution to the, to

00:29:02 [Speaker Changed] Me it’s about the portfolio. Yeah. What, what’s the solution exactly, what are you trying to achieve and what, you know, and if it’s a, you know, long term retirement or retirement income, whatever, whatever it is. And then what does the portfolio need to look like or should look like and how does it evolve over time? And then how do you do it right? And what are the kind of mixture of tools that are most, most appropriate to, to get you there. So that’s the shift in thinking that I think

00:29:24 [Speaker Changed] People, so let’s dive into that a little bit. You know, the advantage of stocks, bonds, convertibles. Hmm. They all come with a CUSIP number. It’s pretty standard in terms of the custodianship, where, where it’s held, what sort of public information is a about available, the due diligence you can do about it, how to get liquid. When you want to get liquid, all those stocks, bonds, and, and put convertibles as sort of a hybrid. Everybody knows how to operate around that. It seems like when we look at privates, they’re all one-offs. The custodian ships are all a single thing. Doing the due diligence is time consuming and expensive. They’re, the hope is they’re, they’re not correlated and you’re giving up liquidity in exchange for the illiquidity premium. Can that ever be standardized enough that as a wealth manager, I could say, Hey Steven, I wanna move 10, 20% of these clients’ assets to a diversified set of equity debt Yeah. And real assets and I want some liquidity. Like is this a pipe dream? Oh, and I don’t want any K ones ’cause they’re a disaster to deal with. Like, if that were something that was turnkey and available, I would think that every wealth manager in America would rush in that direction. How long might it be before privates look something like public markets, or at least the pain points are, are reduced to Yeah. Something tolerable.

00:31:04 [Speaker Changed] I think we’re on a, we’re on a journey and I think that that is about, first of all, developing investment strategies and therefore, and being able to put them in products that work for a wealth manager. Secondly, there’s a big, you know, the operational lift, right? The, the technology development that is happening. And we’re working, we’re working with a number of firms around how can we make sure that, for example, model portfolios can incorporate private markets in a more efficient, kind of easier to use way. It’s gonna be different to public markets, it should be different to public markets because I think the role of a, of a infrastructure, for example, in a, in a, in a portfolio is different to the role of owning stocks or owning bonds. And I think that part of, you know, part of the way we’ve always thought about the role of stocks and bonds as being different as well, you know, bonds as a ballast to a portfolio, stocks as a growth driver for example. I think you’ve gotta

00:31:58 [Speaker Changed] Think about that. I’m enough when bonds actually generated attractive yields.

00:32:03 [Speaker Changed] Maybe that’ll come back, you know, we might need a bit of inflation, but yeah, one day, one day, Barry, will we be back on the podcast too? Absolutely. To cover that off. But I, I think that different role is very important, but there’s a lot of development to that is happening to be able to make that more efficient than it has been historically. And I think that’s, I think we will see a lot of change in the next couple of years.

00:32:27 [Speaker Changed] You, you mentioned technology, let, let’s dive a little deeper into that. BlackRock acquired pre Quinn and acquired E Front and I’m read about some integration into your Aladdin platform. How significant are those tools when it comes to offering private market investments to the public?

00:32:49 [Speaker Changed] Incredibly important. I think that, you know, for anybody who is for a wealth manager who is running a portfolio for a, for a client, the, it’s not just as, you know, it’s not just about buying the different products or doing the asset allocation, it’s also about the risk management of, of what does that portfolio look like? And that’s really what Aladdin is about. And as more and more investors, whether that is a retail investor or wealth wealth investor, or whether that’s a big pension fund, incorporate private markets into portfolios and blend private and public. And, and I think again, if you go back over that 10 15 year journey, we started with indexing on one side of the floor and you know, active on the other side. And we gradually brought those together and that became commonplace to blend. And I think we’re now in that world of starting to blend public markets and private markets, which historically were completely distinct and we’re starting to kinda blend, blend those because, because the industries are crossing over more companies are staying private for longer, et cetera, et cetera.

00:33:52 So as we bring those together, the need to be able to, you know, risk manage and understand those portfolios in different scenarios is incredibly important. That’s what Aladdin is about. With Preco, what is so exciting is that I think over time the private markets will become more transparent. There will be more data available and around and very similar to what, what Aladdin and BlackRock did with public markets will happen in the private markets as well. And that I think will help more and more investors access private markets in the way and understand what it is that, that they have partly of which is again, understanding the different liquidity and, and being comfortable that they’re different for a reason. And you’re not trying to create a one size fit fits all. You’re trying to create a portfolio that delivers the right, the right outcomes. Aladin I think is gonna be critical for that. So

00:34:45 [Speaker Changed] Let’s talk a little bit about product development. Just in the ETF space this year, over a thousand new ETFs have come out, or at least we’re on pace to do that by the end of this year. This sort of hyper development of ETFs, it, everything we’ve talked about seems to be very thoughtful and very measured with a, a really specific approach. Kind of feels like the rest of the industry is just throwing stuff up against the wall to see what sticks, how, how do you look at this?

00:35:18 [Speaker Changed] We can only focus on what we do, so,

00:35:20 [Speaker Changed] But you have to be aware of what you see, but you

00:35:22 [Speaker Changed] Are aware of what’s going on a hundred percent,

00:35:24 [Speaker Changed] Three x inverse bitcoin. Like what, why, why do I want that? Or why does anyone want that?

00:35:31 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, you’ll have to ask them.

00:35:33 [Speaker Changed] I mean I guess it’s, they want to give people an opportunity to make any type of trade and every type of trade. I’m assuming that’s not your approach.

00:35:43 [Speaker Changed] I think there is a lot out there of throwing things out that sticks. Our approach is very much where do we believe that we can develop products, strategies, exposures that are gonna help create better portfolios, right? And if you look at the evolution of the ETF industry and what’s happened is it started, you know, go back 30, 30 plus 20 years ago. It started very much with how do you give access to kind of broad indices and then it was how do you inequities then how do you give access to more granular exposure like sectors or different countries? Then it was how do you move into different asset classes, like fixed income for example. And then more recently it’s been something like digital assets with, with ibit and that’s really been the journey of iisha s right? And I think that’s been therefore the journey of the industry as we’ve, as we’ve led it that I remains very much our view how we think about continuing to expand the iShares platform.

00:36:42 And that includes now using the ETF technology we’ve built to take things like active funds and wrap them into an ETF because the ETF is a more efficient way for many investors to actually own those different strategies. But again, it ha it starts with the strategy and I think that, you know, for us it’s about how do you, what, what is it that you are developing in terms of an exposure or strategy? Why, how does it fit with the world that we see today in terms of where we think the world is going from a market standpoint and a macro standpoint, how does it fit in terms of kind of a portfolio construction standpoint? You’re gonna have waves of innovation. Right now we’re having huge wave of, of of ETF launches and in particular the last two, three years, you know, the ETF is, it’s, it’s gone from being kind of very much on the side of the industry to being very central. We’re excited about that. You know, that’s what we were, that’s what we’ve built at BlackRock and iShares. But it’s also meant that ETFs are very much kinda being used more broadly and you know, that’s gonna be I think part of how the industry evolves. And then you kinda matures,

00:37:45 [Speaker Changed] Especially on the active side where you get all the benefits of mutual ownership without the capital gains penalty that you get in mutual funds. So it makes sense that a lot of active ETFs would develop where they might’ve been active mutual funds. Yeah. What else do you see as changing or in the midst of, of transforming is, is it by asset class? Is it by, you mentioned geography or sector, what is really in flux these days?

00:38:19 [Speaker Changed] So I think that, you know, when you look at, I’ll give you a couple of good examples. So digital assets I think is kind of fairly early days. Ibit is incredibly fast growing. It was the fastest to 20 to 30 to 40 to 50, and now hopefully to a hundred billion as an ETF. And we, you know, we have an Ethereum ETF there. I think there will be more product development in something like that. And again, for us that’s about bridging this kind of defi world with the traditional kind of finance world. That’s one area. The second area is take something like fixed income. You know, we’ve been building out fixed income ETF industry for 20 years. The industry is now two and a half-ish trillion dollars. We think it’s gonna be 6 trillion by kind of 2030. The growth is huge. Less than 2% of bonds in the world are in an ETF. Wow. So it feels, and having been, I can tell you having been on the journey and, and and been out there, you know, kind of pounding the streets on the, the value of fixed income ETFs over the years, it feels like this has become really, really big. And it has, and yet when you think it in the context of the $140 trillion of fixed income out there, you know, ETFs are still a pretty tiny part of the, the market in terms of how people own bonds.

00:39:39 [Speaker Changed] It’s, it’s relatively large compared to what it was, but in absolute terms. But

00:39:43 [Speaker Changed] In absolute terms, they still, you know, we’re still to use in and out the, the, the sports terminology of given it’s the World series, you know, the first inning, maybe the second inning. And then even if you look at e what’s really fascinating is you, if you look at, and we talked about active active ETFs, and again, that’s still very early stages,

00:40:01 [Speaker Changed] But on fixed, fixed income, they actually seem to do very like the broad, the Bloomberg Ag includes everything good, bad, and different. It seems like it’s relatively easy to capture a little bit of fixed income alpha with a handful of screens. You’re taking out the, the lowest credit quality or you’re taking out the riskiest credit that you’re not getting compensated for. Why does fixed income active seem like it’s a better bet or a higher probability bet than active equity?

00:40:37 [Speaker Changed] I think the historically fixed income, I’ll go back to when I started, was very much a, a world of limited transparency and, and kind of understanding, frankly, I think the understanding for most investors of fixed income relative to, I don’t mean, I don’t mean investors who are doing fixed income all, all every day, but for, for most retail investors in particular, I think people have a much more natural affinity to stocks than they do for bonds in terms of kind of the understanding. Bonds feel complicated at times. It feels like an in, it’s a world we don’t quite understand. Whereas equities, you kind of, you, you know, you know, Google or what, what or whatever it is. And so I think there’s always been a a, a sense of kind of outsourcing those decisions kind of more. So. The other thing is that the, the indices, the indexing market in fixed income has been slower to evolve. So you mentioned the ag and people tend to, when they think about fixed income indexing, they automatically go to the ag. Sure, the ag is one index and it’s a very specific index in terms of what it is. It doesn’t have a huge amount of credit in it, for example. But there are

00:41:43 Other indices with Bloomberg for which we have products like Universal that actually are much more representative of fixed income. So part of it also is, is, you know, what are you benchmarking yourself against? And I think we went through that experience with equities and we are going to go through that, or we are going through that experience with, with fixed income. And the other thing we’re seeing with fixed income is that we’re developing and building the more granular strategies in fixed income. So we’re carving up the market in fixed income the way we did in equities through ETFs. So if you want to own zero to three year government bonds own escar, if you want to own long-term treasuries own TLT, if you want to own bits of the cr, different types of credit crossover, you can now do that through ETFs. So, you know, it is an amazing tool.

00:42:29 And what’s fascinating about fixed income ETFs is that some of the fastest growing users are asset managers. So fixed income managers using ETFs as a way to be better at their job. And I think, again, that’s that blending of, of, of indexing. But even in the equity world, you know, equity indices are evolving. We, we were saying if you look back to 2000, you know, the top seven, you know, the whole kinda s and p was worth the equivalent to what the top seven stocks were worth, you know, six months ago. And so you mentioned earlier in the program equal weight s and p we’re seeing a lot of demand right now for things like equal weight or cap indices. We launched a top 20 fund. Top t we did the same thing with nasdaq. You know, even the s and p 500, owning the top 20 stocks versus owning the 500 stocks is a very, very, very different game. And so even something like large cap US equities, you, which you would’ve thought there was nothing else to innovate in, even that has been the area where we’ve probably done more in the last six months than than many other areas because the dynamics of of the US equity market have shifted so much in the last couple of years and, and investors are looking for different things

00:43:43 [Speaker Changed] Coming up. We continue our conversation with Steve Cohen, BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and head of Global Product Solutions, discussing what goes into product development in finance. I’m Barry Ritholtz, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Steve Cohen. He’s BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and head of Global Product Solutions. He also sits on BlackRock’s global executive committee. Since, since we’ve been talking about technology and you mentioned the top seven I I I’m legally obligated to ask a question about artificial intelligence and ai. What is AI doing to your business of developing new products? How we thinking about either AI as an asset class or actually deploying AI to help build new products?

00:44:55 [Speaker Changed] I think we’re seeing AI in probably three areas. I, the, the first one is obviously AI as an investment theme, which is very well kind of publicized, et cetera. And we’re seeing that through things like data centers, obviously stocks, credit, et cetera. The second one is AI in terms of investment strategy. For example, BlackRock, we’re very fortunate to have a systematic group investment group that is, has a 40 year track record in history of delivering really great performance. And you know, they would argue they were doing AI well before it was called ai when it was called machine learning or whatever it was called before

00:45:38 [Speaker Changed] That. It’s been around, most people think it’s new thing, you know, it’s been around a while. Watson played Jeopardy and I forgot the one, was it Deep Blue played chess

00:45:47 [Speaker Changed] And go,

00:45:48 [Speaker Changed] Those were 30 years ago.

00:45:50 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. So, you know, it’s gone through its iterations and, and so, you know, and they’ve got some fantastic examples of the way they’ve used machine learning stroke now AI, to really understand, you know, every single day they will pass thousands of reports, earnings calls, et cetera, transcripts for for Right, for sentiment. And it, and, and you know, and the result, the investment results of those, of those signals that they create are, are really quite, quite fascinating and, and very lucrative in terms of investment alpha. And so we’re really seeing a huge demand right now for systematic investing. And this is something that historically people were nervous about because it was a black box, they didn’t understand it. And now people are using things like chat, GPT, et cetera, which is a black box, but they’re seeing the value they’re getting. And so what’s interesting is there’s a psychological shift and a greater acceptance of saying actually systematic investing using ai.

00:46:53 That’s really interesting and exciting and we’re so, so I think the second thing is we’re seeing it through using AI to be better investors. And then the third one is product development. And so how can we use the data that we are able to collect and effectively deploy big data and the AI that that we’ve developed in-house that sits on that to identify what are some of those themes that are coming up? What are some of the things that clients are talking about or being picked up in the, in the news or, or, or whatever it is. And be more kind of systematic, I would say, in being able to see what those those are. And also we are able to use it to test and stress test strategies that are new in different market environments. So it’s a really, again, it’s a really exciting time for, for product development because it’s giving us new tools that we didn’t have before.

00:47:45 [Speaker Changed] So, so BlackRock tends to come out with these very well thought out very rational products. And the question that, that I’ve been thinking about when I first started doing my homework for this is, what are some of the crazy ideas that you looked at and said, yeah, no, that’s just a bridge too far. Like what hasn’t come out? ’cause it was just too, either not solving a problem or, or just too wild and and reckless. Oh

00:48:13 [Speaker Changed] There’s a whole treasure trove of Oh really? Yeah, we could do another podcast, I’m sure. But you know, typically what’s interesting about it is there are two reasons why you might end up like that. One is it’s, it’s a crazy idea, but there’s just really no demand for it. Okay. And, and it for for well

00:48:32 [Speaker Changed] That’s an easy business

00:48:33 [Speaker Changed] Decision, which is an easy business decision, right? The second time. Often it’s, you’re just too early and, you know, I mean there

00:48:39 [Speaker Changed] Could have been an ETF for E and Bitcoin 10 years ago if the SEC would’ve allowed it. If

00:48:46 [Speaker Changed] They were allowed. Yeah. Yeah. So sometimes it’s the regulatory, you know, it could be, it could be that the industry, the industry in the broad sense of the word regulators or what whatever aren’t quite ready, you are not, you’re not able to actually build the thing that you’ve got an idea for. It could be that the market is not quite ready. Fixed income ETFs is a good example. We looked at things 10 years ago and decided that actually that the, that the fixed income market wasn’t ready. We weren’t quite ready to be able to do that in an ETFA decade on. And by the way, we launched a bunch of those as well, right? Knowing that it would take a long time. We didn’t expect to launch it and it’d be a, it would take off straight away knowing that it would take time for the, for the kinda market to get there. But we were comfortable we could manage that fund. And so often you end up in a situation where you’re kind of waiting for maybe the liquidity of the market to be, to be broad enough that an ETF works. So you know it’s gonna work in the future. It’s just a little bit early now, so it’ll come with different reasons why that may be the case.

00:49:46 [Speaker Changed] So, so that raises the question, what’s next on the product roadmap? So we’ve, we’ve talked about digital and, and crypto, we’ve talked about fixed income. Mm. And we’ve also talked about privates. What are you seeing as the next 10 years?

00:50:01 [Speaker Changed] It’s really across the whole waterfront of what you just said. I mean obviously with, with HPS and GIP with our new partners, there’s a lot of opportunity we believe to develop in the private credit and the infrastructure space and also the crossover of, of those kind of areas. I think this, this crossover of public and private markets and what does that look like in, in portfolios, whether that’s within a fund or in a, in a portfolio. I, I think is gonna be a big and very interesting theme. And, and the third area I think is we, you know, we constantly, obviously we’re, we we’re always working with our, our active portfolio managers to, to develop better strategies and, and new ideas they have. But we are always, always looking back as well. ’cause I think you can fall into the trap of thinking you’ve done it.

00:50:49 And I mentioned the example of, you know, US large cap equities and indexing and what, why would you ever look at that as an innovation area? Well, ’cause the, these markets keep changing and I think the world we’re, the world we’re in right now and a good example of the last six months, the number of clients around the world, particularly outside the US who are questioning their US dollar exposure is pretty significant. And what does that mean for time? Look at the move in gold. Suddenly that is, you know, the 4,000. Yeah. And so, you know, you see, you have to, I think you have to be willing to question the environment, the macro, the market environment and say actually what does that mean for, for things that we kind of thought we’d done. And I think that creates a lot of opportunity for our, for our clients to, to reinnovate things.

00:51:34 [Speaker Changed] So before I get to my favorite questions, I have one last broad question for you. What do you think investors and clients are not thinking about, talking about overlooking, but perhaps should be aware of? It could be an asset, a geography, a data point of policy. What is below the radar that really should be front and center?

00:52:00 [Speaker Changed] I think there are things that are kind of half on and half off the radar. Like, you know, the impact of what’s happening in demographics and immigration and changes like that and what does that mean for, for inflation, for the different types of income streams that people are going to need is something that’s, it’s kind of talked about but always slightly in the background. I think that’s gonna come more and more to the fore. We, it ties into the fiscal policy kind of, which is very much kind of talked about. I think that’s one thing. I think the second thing is we’re still, we’re still living through a lot of the post COVID impact and you know, we don’t, co COVID is kind of done and we would, it feels like it was many, many years ago, but there are a lot of industries and luxury is a good example, which is still being impacted by what happened then both in terms of the lockdown and then the immediate kind of boom that happened afterwards. There are still a lot of things that are still trying to work their way through the, through the system as it were. And that tends to be something I think people have kind of forgotten. But from an investing standpoint is actually pretty important.

00:53:03 [Speaker Changed] I I completely agree with you. It’s funny, we were just having a conversation the other day about housing and someone asked why are we have such a shortfall of single family homes in the United States? Hmm. Not even talking about affordability of homes. Yeah. Just sheer number. And the answer was that’s a hangover from the financial crisis 15, 16 years ago following that boom and bust a lot of builders shifted over, pivoted over to multifamily houses and apartment buildings. Right. Not single family. So it’s 15 years ago. Yeah. And we’re still still suffering the effects of it. Yeah. It’s, it’s amazing how, how long a tail some of these things happen. It takes a long time. I I don’t have you all day. I know you have a flight to catch tomorrow, so I have to get you out here at a decent hour. Let, let’s run through some of our favorite questions, starting with, tell us about your mentors who helped shape your career.

00:54:00 [Speaker Changed] So I’ve, I think I’ve been very lucky. I’ve, I’ve in, in each stage of my career, I’ve always had I think somebody who has been, whether a manager or a mentor, but, but really helped me think through and frankly just supported me in my career. I think two particularly jump out. One is the person who actually took me to, to ING Barings and who I first worked with there, who sadly is no longer with us, but was just an incredible friend. And, you know, in quite a pivotal time in my career, really helped me think through what do I want to do next? And, and kind of set me on that next kinda journey. And then the other one, I have to say a shout out to someone who was very early in my career, who I worked with, who I kind of looked up to in terms of their success, who became my wife. So that became a kind of a good man. She continues to mentor me in slightly, you know, different, more direct ways

00:54:58 [Speaker Changed] That, that’s a, that’s a nice couple of mentors. Let, let’s talk about books. What are some of your favorites? What are you reading recently?

00:55:06 [Speaker Changed] Big fan of people like Ian McEwen.

00:55:10 [Speaker Changed] I know the name Martin

00:55:11 [Speaker Changed] Martin Amos. They’re just great, great authors.

00:55:15 [Speaker Changed] Gi give us some titles. Mar Martin, Amos and Ian Mc McKeon.

00:55:18 [Speaker Changed] Ian McKeen. Yeah. There’s a great book Ian McKeen called Sweet Tooth, which is all about, it’s got a great twist, which I won’t go into, but it’s no spoilers. It’s about 1950s, 1960s kind of spies in, in, in the uk. And there’s a book by Martin Amos, which is the first, I can’t remember the full title. It’s time something, but it’s written backwards.

00:55:41 [Speaker Changed] I kind of remember my wife reading something like that from Martin a MI don’t remember the title.

00:55:46 [Speaker Changed] It’s fa, it’s fascinating. He, he writes it backwards so everything happens backwards. So the day starts with the character going to bed and it’s the con, it’s written in the, as the consciousness of the the man. And so it’s brilliant. It’s just,

00:56:04 [Speaker Changed] I I, I’ll dig up the,

00:56:05 [Speaker Changed] The title Very cleverly written, huh? Not a good

00:56:08 [Speaker Changed] Story. Actually, not quite inception,

00:56:12 [Speaker Changed] But it’s in that guise of, of trying to think about how time works and Yeah. I won’t spoil it for you. Read it All right. It, but it, it’s the kind of book where even the most simple paragraph, you kind of reread it ’cause you’re trying to get your head around the fact that it’s being written backwards. Huh.

00:56:30 [Speaker Changed] Let, speaking of inception, what, what’s keeping you entertained these days? What are you streaming either watching or listening to?

00:56:37 [Speaker Changed] So, we’ve been on a bit of a marathon recently. We’ve done Yellowstone 18 83, 19 23, and Landman.

00:56:43 [Speaker Changed] That is all on my, in my queue and a heaven star. I saw the first Yellowstone on a plane and I’m like, oh, I gotta drag my wife into this one.

00:56:51 [Speaker Changed] It, it’s good. You need to commit, but it’s well worth it. Very, very, yeah. Very grip. All very different as well.

00:57:00 [Speaker Changed] So you are, you’re a Brit giving me an American Western recommendation. Let let this New Yorker give you an MI five London recommendation. Have you seen the film Black Bag?

00:57:15 [Speaker Changed] I

00:57:15 [Speaker Changed] Have. You have.

00:57:16 [Speaker Changed] I I saw it on a plane. I spent a lot of time on planes. Okay. I actually saw her on a plane. It was very good.

00:57:21 [Speaker Changed] I very clever. All upside surprise. Holy unexpected.

00:57:24 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. Very good. I’d never heard of it.

00:57:25 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And then, and

00:57:26 [Speaker Changed] I assume you watch slow horses.

00:57:27 [Speaker Changed] I, that’s where I was about to go is so I, I, I had my wife watching through the second season and she kind of tapped out. I’m trying to bring her in for the most recent season.

00:57:37 [Speaker Changed] You’ve gotta get in. We are very much the, we won’t watch it until it’s all out.

00:57:42 [Speaker Changed] We, we’ve made that mistake not doing that with certain things. It’s, we binge it’s incredibly, we binge like, what, what is this? Watching one show a week? What are we living in the nineties? I can’t, like,

00:57:54 [Speaker Changed] I’m a cave. It’s like when an advert appears. Right,

00:57:56 [Speaker Changed] Right. It really is. Final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in fill up, fill in the blanks, investing ETFs, financial product, developing fixed income? What’s your advice for that person?

00:58:15 [Speaker Changed] Go for it. I, this, I think that, I really think this industry is changing so quickly. I think it’s changing faster than I’ve, in my kind of career in terms of what is happening, which I think creates a lot of opportunity for somebody starting out. My advice I always give to all of our analysts who are starting out, and frankly I give it to pretty much all of our team, is you’ve gotta keep learning. Th this is constantly changing. And, and you’ve got to just, you’ve always gotta be on that kind of learning curve. And, and that’s how you get better. It’s also where the opportunities come from a career standpoint.

00:58:52 [Speaker Changed] Make makes a lot of sense. Our final question, what do you know about the world of investing product development ETFs today would’ve been helpful back in the 1990s when you were first getting started?

00:59:05 [Speaker Changed] Well, if I’d known that Bitcoin was gonna be 120,000, I probably would’ve done Well that’s done something differently.

00:59:09 [Speaker Changed] Well, you could say that, you know, back

00:59:11 [Speaker Changed] The truck, say

00:59:11 [Speaker Changed] About everything. Right. Back up the truck on Amazon in 2002. Or Apple. Apple in 98 Completely. Or Microsoft from the IPO.

00:59:18 [Speaker Changed] No, I think one thing it does lend itself to, and it sounds a bit strange for somebody who started out, you know, on a bond trading floor doing bond maths, is, you realize over time, only when you look back the power of compounding. I know everyone writes about compounding and you learn about it, obviously, but it’s only when you have been around for a while and you look back at what compounding actually means as a, both a an investor, you know, you know, managing your own kind of future retirement and wealth. And then, or as a, or as somebody who works with, with clients about managing portfolios, what compounding actually does imply, and I was thinking about that the other day actually.

01:00:00 [Speaker Changed] It, it’s very counterintuitive. Hmm. There’s nothing in the natural world in your ordinary experience as a mammal that would give you any insight into just exactly how exponential it is. Yes. Yeah. It’s really fascinating. Well, well thank you Steven, for being so generous with your time. Thank you. We have been speaking with Steven Cohen. He is BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and head of Global Solutions. If you enjoy this conversation, check out any of the 586 we’ve done over the prior dozen years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube, wherever you find your favorite podcast. Be sure and check out my new book, how Not to Invest the ideas, numbers, and behavior that destroys wealth and how to avoid them at your favorite bookstore. Now, I would be remiss if I did not thank the correct team that helps put these conversations together each week. Alexis Noriega is my video producer, Anna Luke is my podcast, produ producer Sage Bauman is the head of podcasts at Bloomberg. Sean Russo is my researcher. I’m Barry Ritholtz. This has been Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

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November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs

Calculated Risk -

From the BLS: Employment Situation
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported. Due to the recent federal government shutdown, this is the first publication of October data and thus there are no revisions for October this month.
emphasis added
Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 64 thousand in November.  Private payrolls increased by 697 thousand, and public payrolls decreased 5 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 6 thousand).

Payrolls for August and September were revised down by 33 thousand, combined.  The economy has only added 100 thousand jobs since April (7 months).
Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November, the year-over-year change was 0.03 million jobs.  
Year-over-year employment growth has slowed sharply.



The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.5% in November, from 62.4% in September (no October data). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was decreased to 59.6% from 59.7% in September (blue line).
I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September.  

This was sligthly above consensus expectations, however, August and September payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined - and the initial October estimate was -105,000.
Overall another weak report, although there are technical issues that likely make this data less accurate due to government shutdown.
I'll have more later ...

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