Individual Economists

UK Ad Banned For Showing Black Harasser; Multiple Ads With White Harassers Were Just Fine

Zero Hedge -

UK Ad Banned For Showing Black Harasser; Multiple Ads With White Harassers Were Just Fine

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a glaring display of selective outrage, Transport for London (TfL) has yanked an advert depicting a black teenager harassing a white girl on a bus – all because of a single complaint crying “racial stereotypes.” Meanwhile, multiple past ads, all featuring white men as the aggressors, were approved, exposing the double standards that shield uncomfortable realities from public view.

The controversial ad was part of TfL’s “Act Like a Friend” campaign, aimed at encouraging bystanders to intervene in cases of sexual harassment or ‘hate crimes’ on public transport.

In the short clip, a black teenage boy verbally harasses a young white girl, with his white friend sitting nearby, effectively boxing her in. But according to the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA), this portrayal – when viewed in isolation – “reinforced a negative racial stereotype” associating black males with threatening behavior.

The ASA’s ruling came after just one complaint, deeming the ad “irresponsible” and likely to cause “serious offence.”

They stated: “We understood there was a negative racial stereotype based on the association between black males, including teenagers, and threatening behaviour. […] The ad, when seen in isolation, had the effect of perpetuating a negative racial stereotype about black men as perpetrators of threatening behaviour.”

TfL was ordered to ensure future ads avoid such “harmful stereotypes.”

TfL even defended the campaign, noting it featured a diverse range of scenarios to reflect London’s population. Other cut-downs included a white male committing a hate crime against a black woman and another white male targeting a white male victim.

Ah yes, but any instance of a black person being the aggressor must be purged. That is not allowed, because clearly it NEVER happens in London and it’s racist. OK?

TfL issued a an apology, with a spokeswoman remarking “Our aim is to ensure that our advertising reflects London’s diverse population and does not perpetuate any stereotypes. […] We’re sorry that this social media advert […] falls below our usual high standards when viewed in isolation.”

Of course, similar government anti-harassment ads have repeatedly cast white men as the sole perpetrators, with diverse victims – and that seems to be just fine.

White villains are fair game, but anything else gets labeled a “negative racial stereotype.”

This episode underscores the woke stranglehold on media and advertising. In a city where harassment reports surge amid unchecked borders, honest campaigns should be encouraged, not censored. The left’s obsession with “equity” blinds them to actual threats, leaving women – especially native Brits – more vulnerable.

TfL’s quick capitulation to one complaint shows how easily truth is suppressed. If ads with white harassers face no backlash, why the uproar here? It’s a clear case of protecting narratives over people.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 05:00

Beijing Blasts Trump After US Releases New Details On Alleged 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test

Zero Hedge -

Beijing Blasts Trump After US Releases New Details On Alleged 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test

Update: Despite the Lunar New Year holiday, Beijing has made it known it is not best pleased with Washington digging up Nuke blasts from the past.

Issuing a statement via state mouthpiece (@HuXijin_GT), the CCP suggested an ulterior motive for the timing of this announcement:

"Trump is eager to resume nuclear testing and needs a plausible reason, and accusing China of conducting nuclear tests is the perfect pretext.

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw stated on Tuesday that the US is prepared to conduct low-yield nuclear tests in response to alleged secret nuclear tests by China and Russia.

The US is being far too hasty; having just fabricated rumors that China conducted an explosive nuclear test nearly six years ago, they are already announcing their own low-yield nuclear test.

Washington's motives for spreading these rumors are too clear; they can't even be bothered to feign it."

Hard to disagree with the latter point.

*  *  *

As Kimberley Hayek detailed earlier via The Epoch Times, a senior State Department official released additional evidence Tuesday in support of U.S. allegations that China conducted an underground nuclear test in June 2020, as global arms control frameworks unravel.

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw, while speaking to a Hudson Institute meeting, discussed data from a remote seismic station in Kazakhstan that recorded a magnitude 2.75 “explosion” approximately 450 miles from China’s Lop Nur test grounds on June 22, 2020.

“I’ve looked at additional data since then. There is very little possibility I would say that it is anything but an explosion, a singular explosion,” Yeaw said, underscoring that the data were not consistent with blasts from mining.

“It’s also entirely not consistent with an earthquake,” said Yeaw, a former intelligence analyst and defense official who holds a doctorate in nuclear engineering. “It is ... what you would expect with a nuclear explosive test.”

Yeaw argued that China tried to hide the event through decoupling, detonating the device in a spacious underground cavity to diminish seismic waves.

Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno earlier this month accused China of performing such secretive nuclear arms tests and implementing measures to restrict seismic evidence.

“Today, I can reveal that the U.S. Government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons,” DiNanno said.

These claims back up Yeaw’s assertions of concealment tactics.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, which monitors global explosions, noted that available data do not allow for firm conclusions.

Executive Secretary Robert Floyd said in a statement that the seismic monitoring station in Kazakhstan captured “two very small seismic events” 12 seconds apart on June 22, 2020.

The organization’s network detects events equivalent to 551 tons (500 metric tons) of TNT or more, according to Floyd.

“These two events were far below that level,” Floyd said. “As a result, with this data alone, it is not possible to assess the cause of these events with confidence.”

China, a signatory to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty but not a ratifier, rejected the initial U.S. accusation at an international conference this month. Beijing’s last acknowledged underground test occurred in 1996.

The United States, which also signed but did not ratify the treaty, is legally bound to its terms under international norms. America’s final underground test was in 1992, with subsequent reliance on sophisticated simulations and supercomputers for warhead maintenance.

President Donald Trump recently called on China to take part in trilateral talks with Russia to support the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which ended Feb. 5.

China refused the invitation, arguing that its arsenal is far smaller than those of the United States and Russia. The Pentagon estimates China’s current operational warheads at more than 600. The stockpile is expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030.

The Federation of American Scientists, an organization working to minimize the risks of nuclear threats, tracks Russia as currently having 5,459 warheads, while the United States has 5,177.

The New START accord expiration removes caps on deployed strategic warheads and delivery vehicles, potentially accelerating buildups. Russia and the United States said they would informally observe limits.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 04:15

Chinese Journalist Who Exposed CCP’s Labor Camp Abuses Still In Custody in Beijing

Zero Hedge -

Chinese Journalist Who Exposed CCP’s Labor Camp Abuses Still In Custody in Beijing

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese journalist whose work exposed human rights abuses committed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been detained in Beijing for more than 100 days.

Independent journalist and photographer Du Bin in an undated photo. Song Pi-lung/The Epoch Times

Du Bin, 54, was formally arrested in November last year, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity out of fear of reprisal. His case has been transferred to the procuratorate for examination and prosecution as of late January, the sources told The Epoch Times.

Du has been held at Shunyi Detention Center in Beijing since October, when he was taken by police from his residence, according to his sister and rights groups.

Authorities told his sister at the time that Du was detained under suspension for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” The vaguely worded charge is often used by the regime to target dissidents and human rights advocates.

Authorities are now pursuing a new charge that may “involve state leaders” after failing to find sufficient evidence to support the initial charge, according to people familiar with the matter.

Details about Du’s case, including what led to his arrest, remain unclear, with authorities citing “state secrecy” as the reason for refusing to provide information to his lawyer.

As a photographer and writer focused on uncovering the history that Beijing seeks to conceal, Du has been targeted by authorities for more than a decade, but this was the first time he had been formally arrested.

Du was taken into custody for 37 days in 2013. His friends told Amnesty International at the time that Du’s detention might have been linked to a documentary exposing the abuses women faced at Masanjia Labor Camp.

Located in the northern Chinese city of Shenyang, the detention facility is notorious for its horrific treatment of female detainees, especially those who refuse to renounce their faith in Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa.

The spiritual discipline—featuring meditative exercises and moral teachings centered on truthfulness, compassion, and forbearance—has faced brutal persecution since 1999, when the CCP deemed the practice’s surging popularity a threat to its authority. Torture and abuse are part of the ongoing campaign to wipe out Falun Gong, which had attracted an estimated 70 million to 100 million practitioners in China by the late 1990s.

In two books released in Hong Kong in 2014, Du detailed former inmates’ accounts of torture by Masanjia guards, including shocking female Falun Gong practitioners’ genitalia with electric batons and stripping practitioners naked and locking them up in the cells of male prisoners.

Months after his release in 2013, Du was asked in an interview why he chose to write about Falun Gong, one that he himself acknowledged as the most sensitive topic in China.

“We are all human,” he told The Epoch Times in December 2014. “Using such inhuman methods against others is something I can never accept.”

Du Bin holds a laptop showing the gate to Masanjia Labor Camp at an event in Hong Kong on April 27, 2013. Pan Zaishu/The Epoch Times

In December 2020, days before his historical book “Red Terror: Lenin’s Communist Experiment” was set to be published in Taiwan, Du was arrested by Beijing police, again for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” He was released after 37 days in detention.

‘Growing Intolerance’

Independent journalists and writers such as Du have endured mounting pressure in recent years as the CCP deepens its grip on society.

In 2025, Beijing once again led the world in the number of reporters imprisoned, the Committee to Protect Journalists stated in its latest annual report, released last month. It marked the third consecutive year that the regime was given the title of “the world’s worst jailer of journalists.”

On Feb. 9, a Hong Kong court handed down a 20-year prison term to Jimmy Lai, founder of a now-shuttered newspaper known for its critical coverage of the CCP, under a Beijing-imposed “national security” law. The court also gave heavy sentences to six former Apple Daily employees on national security charges.

In mainland China, authorities in Sichuan Province recently detained two investigative journalists who wrote about corruption by local Party officials, according to Reporters Without Borders.

International human rights groups have denounced the harassment campaign against Du and called for his immediate release.

“The international community must step up pressure on Beijing to secure Du’s release, along with that of all other journalists and press freedom defenders detained in China,” Antoine Bernard, director for advocacy and assistance at Reporters Without Borders, said in a December 2025 statement.

Human Rights Watch, in a statement following Du’s arrest, said the charge against Du highlighted “the growing intolerance for dissent” under Xi Jinping, the Party’s top leader.

A man holds a poster of the famous “Tank Man” facing Chinese military tanks at Tiananmen Square on June 5, 1989, during a candlelight vigil in Victoria Park in Hong Kong on June 4, 2020. Anthony/AFP via Getty Images

Du is also a photographer who once contributed to international media outlets, including The New York Times. But he was forced to stop after authorities denied him a work permit over his books.

His work includes “Tiananmen Massacre,” which compiles firsthand accounts of the night of June 3–4, 1989, when CCP leaders deployed troops and tanks to suppress unarmed pro-democracy students calling for political reform. That event remains one of the most heavily censored topics in China today.

In an interview with The Epoch Times after his second release, Du appeared calm and undeterred.

“I’m not pessimistic, nor am I afraid,” he said in January 2021, “because my work is based on actual events—all I’ve done is document them.”

Xin Ling and Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 23:25

Chinese Journalist Who Exposed CCP’s Labor Camp Abuses Still In Custody in Beijing

Zero Hedge -

Chinese Journalist Who Exposed CCP’s Labor Camp Abuses Still In Custody in Beijing

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese journalist whose work exposed human rights abuses committed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been detained in Beijing for more than 100 days.

Independent journalist and photographer Du Bin in an undated photo. Song Pi-lung/The Epoch Times

Du Bin, 54, was formally arrested in November last year, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity out of fear of reprisal. His case has been transferred to the procuratorate for examination and prosecution as of late January, the sources told The Epoch Times.

Du has been held at Shunyi Detention Center in Beijing since October, when he was taken by police from his residence, according to his sister and rights groups.

Authorities told his sister at the time that Du was detained under suspension for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” The vaguely worded charge is often used by the regime to target dissidents and human rights advocates.

Authorities are now pursuing a new charge that may “involve state leaders” after failing to find sufficient evidence to support the initial charge, according to people familiar with the matter.

Details about Du’s case, including what led to his arrest, remain unclear, with authorities citing “state secrecy” as the reason for refusing to provide information to his lawyer.

As a photographer and writer focused on uncovering the history that Beijing seeks to conceal, Du has been targeted by authorities for more than a decade, but this was the first time he had been formally arrested.

Du was taken into custody for 37 days in 2013. His friends told Amnesty International at the time that Du’s detention might have been linked to a documentary exposing the abuses women faced at Masanjia Labor Camp.

Located in the northern Chinese city of Shenyang, the detention facility is notorious for its horrific treatment of female detainees, especially those who refuse to renounce their faith in Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa.

The spiritual discipline—featuring meditative exercises and moral teachings centered on truthfulness, compassion, and forbearance—has faced brutal persecution since 1999, when the CCP deemed the practice’s surging popularity a threat to its authority. Torture and abuse are part of the ongoing campaign to wipe out Falun Gong, which had attracted an estimated 70 million to 100 million practitioners in China by the late 1990s.

In two books released in Hong Kong in 2014, Du detailed former inmates’ accounts of torture by Masanjia guards, including shocking female Falun Gong practitioners’ genitalia with electric batons and stripping practitioners naked and locking them up in the cells of male prisoners.

Months after his release in 2013, Du was asked in an interview why he chose to write about Falun Gong, one that he himself acknowledged as the most sensitive topic in China.

“We are all human,” he told The Epoch Times in December 2014. “Using such inhuman methods against others is something I can never accept.”

Du Bin holds a laptop showing the gate to Masanjia Labor Camp at an event in Hong Kong on April 27, 2013. Pan Zaishu/The Epoch Times

In December 2020, days before his historical book “Red Terror: Lenin’s Communist Experiment” was set to be published in Taiwan, Du was arrested by Beijing police, again for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” He was released after 37 days in detention.

‘Growing Intolerance’

Independent journalists and writers such as Du have endured mounting pressure in recent years as the CCP deepens its grip on society.

In 2025, Beijing once again led the world in the number of reporters imprisoned, the Committee to Protect Journalists stated in its latest annual report, released last month. It marked the third consecutive year that the regime was given the title of “the world’s worst jailer of journalists.”

On Feb. 9, a Hong Kong court handed down a 20-year prison term to Jimmy Lai, founder of a now-shuttered newspaper known for its critical coverage of the CCP, under a Beijing-imposed “national security” law. The court also gave heavy sentences to six former Apple Daily employees on national security charges.

In mainland China, authorities in Sichuan Province recently detained two investigative journalists who wrote about corruption by local Party officials, according to Reporters Without Borders.

International human rights groups have denounced the harassment campaign against Du and called for his immediate release.

“The international community must step up pressure on Beijing to secure Du’s release, along with that of all other journalists and press freedom defenders detained in China,” Antoine Bernard, director for advocacy and assistance at Reporters Without Borders, said in a December 2025 statement.

Human Rights Watch, in a statement following Du’s arrest, said the charge against Du highlighted “the growing intolerance for dissent” under Xi Jinping, the Party’s top leader.

A man holds a poster of the famous “Tank Man” facing Chinese military tanks at Tiananmen Square on June 5, 1989, during a candlelight vigil in Victoria Park in Hong Kong on June 4, 2020. Anthony/AFP via Getty Images

Du is also a photographer who once contributed to international media outlets, including The New York Times. But he was forced to stop after authorities denied him a work permit over his books.

His work includes “Tiananmen Massacre,” which compiles firsthand accounts of the night of June 3–4, 1989, when CCP leaders deployed troops and tanks to suppress unarmed pro-democracy students calling for political reform. That event remains one of the most heavily censored topics in China today.

In an interview with The Epoch Times after his second release, Du appeared calm and undeterred.

“I’m not pessimistic, nor am I afraid,” he said in January 2021, “because my work is based on actual events—all I’ve done is document them.”

Xin Ling and Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 23:25

Wexner Says He Was 'Conned' By Epstein, Did 'Nothing Wrong'

Zero Hedge -

Wexner Says He Was 'Conned' By Epstein, Did 'Nothing Wrong'

After what must have been quite the prep session with lawyers, billionaire Les Wexner - who gave Jeffrey Epstein "about a billion dollars" in cash and assets - testified to the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday that he was "conned" by Epstein, and denied any wrongdoing.

Les Wexner denied any wrongdoing or knowledge of Jeffrey Epstein's crimes during testimony to House lawmakers.House Oversight and Government Reform Committee

In a prepared statement, the 88-year-old former L Brands (which owned Victoria's Secret) CEO said: 

Let me state from the start: I was naïve, foolish, and gullible to put any trust in Jeffrey Epstein. He was a con man. And while I was conned, I have done nothing wrong and have nothing to hide. I completely and irrevocably cut ties with Epstein nearly twenty years ago when I learned that he was an abuser, a crook, and a liar.

...

And, let me be crystal clear: I never witnessed nor had any knowledge of Epstein's criminal activity. I was never a participant nor coconspirator in any of Epstein's illegal activities. To my enormous embarrassment and regret, like many others, I was duped by a world-class con man. I cannot undo that part of my personal history even as I regret ever having met him.

Yet many aren't buying it - including the FBI in 2019, which listed Wexner as a potential co-conspirator

Meanwhile Epstein wrote to Wexner in a draft email: "You and I had ‘gang stuff’ for over 15 years," adding "I owe a great debt to you, as frankly you owe to me" and that he had "no intention of divulging any confidence of ours."

Also strange:

After launching a business relationship in the 1980s, Wexner and Epstein formed 'a financial and personal bond that baffled longtime associates,' according to the New York Times

"I think we both possess the skill of seeing patterns," Wexner told Vanity Fair in 2003. "But Jeffrey sees patterns in politics and financial markets, and I see patterns in lifestyle and fashion trends." 

Wexner would go on to open doors for Epstein - who managed "many aspects of his financial life." 

By 1995, Epstein was a director of the Wexner Foundation and Wexner Heritage Foundation and president of Wexner’s N.A. Property Inc., which developed the Ohio town of New Albany, where Wexner lives. Epstein also was involved in Wexner’s superyacht, “Limitless,” attending meetings at the London studios of the firm that designed the vessel. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Epstein allegedly ran a 'casting couch' operation for aspiring Victoria's Secret models out of his Manhattan townhome whereby he would promise young girls jobs with the fashion company. 

Epstein "relied on ...[the] modeling business to source underage girls for sex," according to investigative reporter Conchita Sarnoff's new book "Trafficking." 

Model Elisabetta Tai

According to an account by Italian model Elisabetta Tai, Epstein tried to take advantage of the 21-year-old aspiring Victoria's Secret model in 2004 after she was promised that a meeting with a 'very important' man could land her a gig with the apparel company. 

Accuser Holds Wexner Responsible

In late 2019, a woman who says Jeffrey Epstein and his 'madam' Gislaine Maxwell sexually assaulted her holds Victoria's Secret billionaire Leslie Wexner "responsible for what happened to me," because she was staying on a property monitored by Wexner and his wife, and guarded by their security team, according to the Washington Post

Maria Farmer, now in her mid-50s, spoke with the Post in a series of interviews, telling the paper that she never met Leslie, and only spoke with Abigail via phone while at the property in New Albany, Ohio. 

In the summer of 1996, Farmer stayed at the country house that Wexner had deeded to Epstein four years earlier. While staying staying there, she was discouraged from going outside by Wexner's security, and that she was forced to jog inside the 10,600 square-foot house. 

"Where I stayed that summer, in that house and working in that garage, all of it was within view of the Wexner house," said Farmer. 

The house, although owned by Epstein at the time, was “effectively the guesthouse” for the main Wexner estate, and it was guarded only by Wexner personnel, according to a security officer involved with Wexner family security at the time, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to discuss clients publicly. The two homes are a half-mile apart. The grounds were monitored closely by guard dogs and their armed minders, this officer said. It was surrounded by Wexner’s land, according to property records.

Anybody that was going to be coming on property had to be announced and allowed in by the Wexners,” added the officer. “Nobody had carte blanche to go in and off the property.”

...

Farmer, then 26, had just been invited to create two large-scale paintings for the upcoming film “As Good As It Gets,” starring Jack Nicholson. Epstein offered Farmer an unexpected location to do the work in the summer of 1996: an expansive country home in New Albany, Ohio, located amid 336 acres of land owned by Wexner and guarded in part by sheriff’s deputies employed by the longtime chief executive of Victoria’s Secret and The Limited.

It was there, Farmer said in an affidavit she submitted as part of an Epstein-related lawsuit, that she was molested by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell. -Washington Post

"They asked me to come into a bedroom with them and then proceeded to sexually assault me against my will," said Farmer in her affidavit

In the affidavit, she says she “pleaded with” the security staff but was held against her wishes for 12 hours while waiting for her father to arrive. In the interview, she elaborated.

The morning of the day after the alleged assault, she said, Farmer spoke with Maxwell and Epstein. She told them she wanted to leave and hung up. Soon after, a Wexner security guard appeared at the house. “He said, ‘You aren’t leaving,’ ” Farmer recalled, “ ‘You’re not going anywhere.’ ” -Washington Post

Farmer's mother, father, sister and a friend have all separately stated that they recall a similar account from Maria in 1996. 

As the Post notes, "While Farmer’s allegations against Epstein have been widely documented, her experience in New Albany and the questions it raises about the Wexner family’s relationship with Epstein have been little explored." 

Stay tuned for updates...

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 23:22

Wexner Says He Was 'Conned' By Epstein, Did 'Nothing Wrong'

Zero Hedge -

Wexner Says He Was 'Conned' By Epstein, Did 'Nothing Wrong'

After what must have been quite the prep session with lawyers, billionaire Les Wexner - who gave Jeffrey Epstein "about a billion dollars" in cash and assets - testified to the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday that he was "conned" by Epstein, and denied any wrongdoing.

Les Wexner denied any wrongdoing or knowledge of Jeffrey Epstein's crimes during testimony to House lawmakers.House Oversight and Government Reform Committee

In a prepared statement, the 88-year-old former L Brands (which owned Victoria's Secret) CEO said: 

Let me state from the start: I was naïve, foolish, and gullible to put any trust in Jeffrey Epstein. He was a con man. And while I was conned, I have done nothing wrong and have nothing to hide. I completely and irrevocably cut ties with Epstein nearly twenty years ago when I learned that he was an abuser, a crook, and a liar.

...

And, let me be crystal clear: I never witnessed nor had any knowledge of Epstein's criminal activity. I was never a participant nor coconspirator in any of Epstein's illegal activities. To my enormous embarrassment and regret, like many others, I was duped by a world-class con man. I cannot undo that part of my personal history even as I regret ever having met him.

Yet many aren't buying it - including the FBI in 2019, which listed Wexner as a potential co-conspirator

Meanwhile Epstein wrote to Wexner in a draft email: "You and I had ‘gang stuff’ for over 15 years," adding "I owe a great debt to you, as frankly you owe to me" and that he had "no intention of divulging any confidence of ours."

Also strange:

After launching a business relationship in the 1980s, Wexner and Epstein formed 'a financial and personal bond that baffled longtime associates,' according to the New York Times

"I think we both possess the skill of seeing patterns," Wexner told Vanity Fair in 2003. "But Jeffrey sees patterns in politics and financial markets, and I see patterns in lifestyle and fashion trends." 

Wexner would go on to open doors for Epstein - who managed "many aspects of his financial life." 

By 1995, Epstein was a director of the Wexner Foundation and Wexner Heritage Foundation and president of Wexner’s N.A. Property Inc., which developed the Ohio town of New Albany, where Wexner lives. Epstein also was involved in Wexner’s superyacht, “Limitless,” attending meetings at the London studios of the firm that designed the vessel. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Epstein allegedly ran a 'casting couch' operation for aspiring Victoria's Secret models out of his Manhattan townhome whereby he would promise young girls jobs with the fashion company. 

Epstein "relied on ...[the] modeling business to source underage girls for sex," according to investigative reporter Conchita Sarnoff's new book "Trafficking." 

Model Elisabetta Tai

According to an account by Italian model Elisabetta Tai, Epstein tried to take advantage of the 21-year-old aspiring Victoria's Secret model in 2004 after she was promised that a meeting with a 'very important' man could land her a gig with the apparel company. 

Accuser Holds Wexner Responsible

In late 2019, a woman who says Jeffrey Epstein and his 'madam' Gislaine Maxwell sexually assaulted her holds Victoria's Secret billionaire Leslie Wexner "responsible for what happened to me," because she was staying on a property monitored by Wexner and his wife, and guarded by their security team, according to the Washington Post

Maria Farmer, now in her mid-50s, spoke with the Post in a series of interviews, telling the paper that she never met Leslie, and only spoke with Abigail via phone while at the property in New Albany, Ohio. 

In the summer of 1996, Farmer stayed at the country house that Wexner had deeded to Epstein four years earlier. While staying staying there, she was discouraged from going outside by Wexner's security, and that she was forced to jog inside the 10,600 square-foot house. 

"Where I stayed that summer, in that house and working in that garage, all of it was within view of the Wexner house," said Farmer. 

The house, although owned by Epstein at the time, was “effectively the guesthouse” for the main Wexner estate, and it was guarded only by Wexner personnel, according to a security officer involved with Wexner family security at the time, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to discuss clients publicly. The two homes are a half-mile apart. The grounds were monitored closely by guard dogs and their armed minders, this officer said. It was surrounded by Wexner’s land, according to property records.

Anybody that was going to be coming on property had to be announced and allowed in by the Wexners,” added the officer. “Nobody had carte blanche to go in and off the property.”

...

Farmer, then 26, had just been invited to create two large-scale paintings for the upcoming film “As Good As It Gets,” starring Jack Nicholson. Epstein offered Farmer an unexpected location to do the work in the summer of 1996: an expansive country home in New Albany, Ohio, located amid 336 acres of land owned by Wexner and guarded in part by sheriff’s deputies employed by the longtime chief executive of Victoria’s Secret and The Limited.

It was there, Farmer said in an affidavit she submitted as part of an Epstein-related lawsuit, that she was molested by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell. -Washington Post

"They asked me to come into a bedroom with them and then proceeded to sexually assault me against my will," said Farmer in her affidavit

In the affidavit, she says she “pleaded with” the security staff but was held against her wishes for 12 hours while waiting for her father to arrive. In the interview, she elaborated.

The morning of the day after the alleged assault, she said, Farmer spoke with Maxwell and Epstein. She told them she wanted to leave and hung up. Soon after, a Wexner security guard appeared at the house. “He said, ‘You aren’t leaving,’ ” Farmer recalled, “ ‘You’re not going anywhere.’ ” -Washington Post

Farmer's mother, father, sister and a friend have all separately stated that they recall a similar account from Maria in 1996. 

As the Post notes, "While Farmer’s allegations against Epstein have been widely documented, her experience in New Albany and the questions it raises about the Wexner family’s relationship with Epstein have been little explored." 

Stay tuned for updates...

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 23:22

FCC Chair Pushes Back On Allegations Of Censorship Over Stephen Colbert Interview

Zero Hedge -

FCC Chair Pushes Back On Allegations Of Censorship Over Stephen Colbert Interview

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on Wednesday pushed back against allegations of censorship from CBS late-night host Stephen Colbert and a Democratic Texas Senate candidate.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said Colbert could have aired his interview with Texas state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate, if the late-night TV show he hosts complied with federal equal time rules by airing interviews with other Democrats vying for the seat.

“There was no censorship here at all,” Carr told reporters.

“Every single broadcaster in this country has an obligation to be responsible for the programming that they choose to air, and they’re responsible whether it complies with FCC rules or not, and it doesn’t, and those individual broadcasters are also going to have a potential liability.”

Talarico has alleged in posts on his X account that the FCC and the Trump administration had tried to censor the interview and barred him from appearing on Colbert’s program, although the interview was published online.

“The reason the Trump administration and their billionaire friends are trying to silence me and this movement is because they’re worried that we are going to flip Texas in November,” he said in a video, which was posted on X.

Aside from Talarico’s allegations of censorship, Colbert, who is set to leave “The Late Show” in May, also criticized CBS and the Trump administration during his program.

“Then I was told, in some uncertain terms, that not only could I not have him on, I could not mention me not having him on,” the “The Late Show” host said on Tuesday, adding that “because my network clearly doesn’t want us to talk about this, let’s talk about this.”

The interview with Talarico was uploaded to Colbert’s YouTube channel on Tuesday evening.

In statements to media outlets in response to Colbert’s claims, CBS denied that “The Late Show” was barred by the network from airing the Talarico interview and instead said that its lawyers advised the company that the broadcast could trigger the equal time rule.

“The show was provided legal guidance that the broadcast could trigger the FCC equal time rule for two other candidates, including Rep. Jasmine Crockett, and presented options for how the equal time for other candidates could be fulfilled,” CBS said in the statement.

It noted that the interview was published on the show’s YouTube channel instead.

The issue came just hours before early voting opened Tuesday in Texas’s primary elections, which feature hotly contested Senate nomination races in both parties.

Talarico’s main opponent in the primary is Crockett (D-Texas) and both have built national profiles through viral social media clips.

On the Republican side, four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is facing the political fight of his career against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas).

In a notice last month, the FCC said that it is changing the rules exempting certain late-night and daytime talk shows from being mandated to provide equal airtime to opposing candidates.

“Importantly, the FCC has not been presented with any evidence that the interview portion of any late night or daytime television talk show program on air presently would qualify for the bona fide news exemption,” the FCC said on Jan. 21.

“Moreover, a program that is motivated by partisan purposes, for example, would not be entitled to an exemption under longstanding FCC precedent.”

The Epoch Times contacted the FCC for comment Wednesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 21:45

Watch: Humanoid Robots In China Put On Jaw-Dropping Show

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Humanoid Robots In China Put On Jaw-Dropping Show

Our coverage of humanoid robots has ramped up for a very good reason: global production is set to surge this year, these bots are getting "brains," and dual-use concerns are rising.

In China this week, state-owned international news network, China Global Television Network, provided coverage on a Spring Festival gala showcasing the country's technological advancements, including a wild performance featuring humanoid robots.

Four rising humanoid robot startups - Unitree Robotics, Galbot, Noetix, and MagicLab - demonstrated their robots on state TV. In one show, a dozen Unitree humanoids performed sophisticated fight scenes.

China's humanoid robot industry is preparing for two major initial public offerings this year: AgiBot and Unitree.

As we've previously reported, these bots are beginning to push beyond scripted video stunts - such as shown in the video above - into real-world applications. The factory floors are now being invaded, then these bots will be battlefield-ready.

Related research and roadmap of what's ahead:

We should note that President Xi Jinping met with five robotics startup founders in the last year, compared with four electric vehicle and four semiconductor heads over the same period. Xi's focus suggests Beijing sees humanoid robotics as the next frontier it aims to dominate.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 21:20

Surprising Revival: Gen Z Men & Highly Educated Lead Return To Religion

Zero Hedge -

Surprising Revival: Gen Z Men & Highly Educated Lead Return To Religion

Authored by Joel Kotkin, Bheki Mahlobo via RealClearInvestigations,

The decline of religion remains a fundamental reality in most Western countries, particularly in Europe, where over 50% of those under age 40 do not identify with any faith. Even in more religious America, some estimate that as many as 100,000 churches will close in the near future. Meanwhile, the ranks of “Nones,” those outside religious communities, have grown so large that their numbers rival those of Catholics and evangelical Protestants.

Yet, as we document in a new report for the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, there are signs that religion is enjoying more than a nascent revival. Data emerging from the 2020s suggest that we are witnessing a complex spiritual restructuring that intersects with economic mobility, demographic resilience, and a profound intellectual realignment.

For the first time in decades, Pew Research notes, in the U.S. at least, Christianity has stopped its nosedive as more people begin to see the efficacy, and the rewards, of religious faith and practice.

This fragile development is especially noteworthy as it exposes growing divides and fault lines in American politics and culture. Drawing on a vast array of longitudinal studies, interviews, and other sources, one startling finding in both America and abroad is that, contrary to past assertions, today the faithful are not poor and ignorant but increasingly from the educated upper middle class. 

Even the cognitive elites are experiencing a growing trend to embrace religious activity. Indeed, in a rebuke of the aggressive New Atheism of the early 2000s advanced by thought leaders such as Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens, a counter-movement appears to be growing among scientists, philosophers, and public intellectuals who view religious tradition not as a delusion to be eradicated but as a sustainable civilizational operating system. 

As our politics splinter along gender – with women increasingly forming the base for Democrats and men, for Republicans – it is men who are leading the return to church. Reversing a 25-year-long trend, men reported higher church attendance than women in 2025. This growing divide may continue to separate men and women, with grave implications at a time when rates of marriage and parenthood are declining.

Even in places where religion continues to decline, the remaining faithful are shifting away from more liberal faiths to those hewing closer to traditional values. For many, more orthodox sects provide existential security and create a sustainable sense of community.

As our report makes clear, the budding religious revival taking place in the U.S. reflects a global trend, especially strong in Africa, which is now the most demographically robust place on the planet. 

The implications and promise of this trend cannot be overstated. Data show that religious communities function as potent engines of human capital accumulation, risk mitigation, and social capital. These mechanisms effectively propel adherents up the socioeconomic ladder. 

There is considerable evidence that faith is again gaining adherents, even in Europe. Last year, for example, there was a 45% increase in the number of people baptized in France. In the U.K., according to an April study by the Bible Society, the number of 18- to 24-year-olds saying they attended church at least monthly has jumped from 4% in 2018 to 16% today. Among young men, it’s increased 21%. Most of this growth is concentrated among Catholics and Pentecostals; the Bible Society suggests there are now more than 2 million more people attending church than in the last decade. 

Spiritual Hunger

In the U.S., there are also signs of spreading spiritual hunger, according to Pew. Relatively few “nones” identify as either atheist or agnostic but consider themselves spiritual outside organized faith. One recent survey showed young people are increasingly embracing a higher power, often using the internet to access traditional beliefs. Research also suggests that most Gen Z teens are interested in learning more about Jesus, with younger cohorts leading the way in the growth of new commitments.

This is particularly marked among men, marking the closing of the so-called “God Gap” between the sexes. In both the U.S. and the U.K., Gen Z men are now retaining or adopting Christian identity at rates equal to or higher than their female peers. Many young men report feeling culturally dislocated or villainized by progressive secular discourse regarding masculinity. Traditional forms of Christianity, particularly Catholicism and Orthodoxy, offer a narrative of responsibility, sacrifice, and hierarchy that appeals to men seeking a defined role in a fluid world. 

Public intellectuals like Jordan Peterson have played a crucial role in re-enchanting the Bible for a secular male audience. By framing biblical narratives as psychological maps for meaning rather than just metaphysical claims, they create an on-ramp for secular men to enter religious spaces. The internet has further facilitated this through the rise of digital orthodoxy, where the aesthetic of antiquity and rigorous discipline appeals to young men to the spiritual vacuity of modern life.

More surprising may be the nascent embrace of religion by scientists and other learned classes. In the early 2000s, the New Atheism gained traction for the view casting religion as a dangerous delusion. By 2025, this movement has largely exhausted itself, replaced by nuanced curiosity and, in some cases, a robust defense of religion among the epistemic elite. 

Longitudinal research by sociologist Elaine Howard Ecklund, based on surveys of scientists in eight regions, including the U.S., the U.K., Turkey, India, and Taiwan, reveals that scientists in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and India are often more religious than the general public. They view science and religion as overlapping or independent spheres, not enemies.

This perspective is emerging in the U.S. as well. Although still a distinct minority, younger scientists under the age of 35 are more likely to attend religious services than the older baby boomer cohort, suggesting that the rigid secularism of the academy is softening with the new generation. Even two decades ago, only 15% of scientists considered religion in conflict with science, while 70% did not see that conflict.

There are even signs of a revival in the technological heartland of secular America – Silicon Valley. Leading figures, including Pat Gelsinger, former head of Intel, Gary Tan, CEO of Y Incubator, and the venture capitalist Peter Theilopenly embrace Christianity. The world’s most important innovator, Elon Musk, has recently become more public in his embrace of Christianity, which he described as “ a religion of curiosity” and “greater enlightenment.”

Membership at Our Lady of Peace Church and Shrine in Santa Clara has risen to more than 3,000 families, according to Father Brian Dinkel, who said the Catholic church hears an estimated 50,000 confessions a year. “People who may be doing well also want something more,” notes Father Dinkel. “Our people work at Google and Apple, but there’s a real search for the truth beyond tech.”

Orthodoxy Flourishing

Even amidst a fledgling religious revival, mainline Protestantism, once a primary cultural and political pillar of American life, is in freefall. Episcopalians, Methodists, Presbyterians, Lutherans, and others now account for less than 11% of the population, down 40% since 2007, according to the Pew Religious Landscape Study. Since 1960, for example, the Episcopalian share of the population has dropped by two-thirds, the Disciples of Christ and United Church of Christ by even more. Lutherans and even Baptists have seen their share shrink by 50%.

More recently, traditional faiths, such as Greek Orthodoxy, have done particularly well. A survey of Orthodox churches around the country found that parishes saw a 78% increase in converts in 2022, compared with pre-pandemic levels in 2019. And while historically men and women converted in equal numbers, vastly more men have joined the church since 2020. The average age of attendees is 42, with 62% between 18 and 45. That’s significantly younger than other major traditions. 

The appeal of Greek Orthodoxy, notes religious intellectual and convert Matt Mattingly, actually lies not in politics or race, but in ancient values. Mattingly, himself a convert, notes in conversations with recent American converts, “I have talked with, I would estimate, 100+ young men headed into Orthodoxy in the past decade or so. It is true that most are strong supporters of this ancient faith’s teachings on marriage, family, sexuality, and gender. Many of these single men are highly motivated to get married and start families. Yes, they are worried about trends in American life and many mainline pews.

Even more ascendant are the Pentecostals, who emphasize direct contact with God. Their numbers have swelled, particularly among immigrants and in the developing world, as well as in the U.S. By some accounts, it is the fastest-growing religion in the world, with over 600 million adherents today and projected to reach one billion by 2050. 

Similarly, among Jews, reform and even conservative synagogues are struggling while those of Orthodox Judaism, particularly the thriving Chabad movement, have gained both members and influence. Critically, it has enjoyed the greatest growth in engagement since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. In contrast to Chabad’s assertive embrace of the Jewish state, some progressive reform rabbis have embraced anti-Zionism, even in the face of overwhelming support among Jews for Israel. Today, Orthodoxy represents one in seven Jews, but by 2040, that is projected to be one in five

Elite Marker

A central tenet of secularization theory was that higher education would inevitably lead to lower religiosity. This pattern still holds in Europe, but the 2022-2023 Cooperative Election Study, which included nearly 85,000 respondents, indicates a positive correlation between educational attainment and religious attendance in the United States. High school graduates report attending religious services weekly at a rate of approximately 23%, whereas graduate degree holders report attending weekly at a rate of approximately 30%. 

This suggests that religion is becoming an elite marker in America.[i] Increasingly, at least in the U.S., religious affiliation has become a form of elite social behavior associated with stability, community leadership, and bourgeois respectability. Indeed, a deep dive into the data shows that, over the past 15 years, religiously engaged people have become more likely to be well-educated, while atheists are less so. Generally, the nones tend to be somewhat less schooled than their more religious counterparts.

These findings shatter the notion that religious people are generally less curious, less ambitious, and less intelligent than their non-believing counterparts. Religious groups such as Jews and Hindus, as well as Episcopalians, also outperform atheists and agnostics, while many others, such as Mormons, Lutherans, and other Protestant groups, do as well.

Nowhere is the efficacy of religion more obvious than among poorer Americans. Inner-city boys who attend religious school are twice as likely to graduate from college as their socio-economic counterparts in public schools, notes Tulane sociologist Ilana Horwitz. Critical here, notes Horwitz, are the attributes of the religiously engaged, such as respect for elders and learning, with the deepest divergence felt among working- and middle-class children.

This may be one reason enrollment in private Christian schools has shot up across the nation in recent years. The K-12 enrollment at the Association of Christian Schools International, “one of the country’s largest networks of evangelical schools,” increased 12% between 2019-20 and 2020-21. Since then, particularly during and after the pandemic, private schools, mostly religious, gained 300,000 new students between 2019 and 2023 while public schools lost 1.2 million.

That jump mirrors other migrations out of public school systems, including a doubling in the percentage of kids being homeschooled. In the 2019-20 school year, 6% of all American students, some 3.5 million, attended religious schools. The rise of voucher programs, including in such large states as Texas and Florida, has largely benefited religiously oriented schools. 

Pathway to Success

One subtle effect, most importantly for the poor, is that religious institutions provide a connection to the more affluent. This is a critical factor for success as outlined in the “Social Capital Atlas” project led by Harvard economist Raj Chetty. Utilizing privacy-protected data from 21 billion Facebook friendships linked to tax records and census data, the report found the degree of social interaction between low-income and high-income individuals as the single strongest predictor of whether a poor child would rise out of poverty. High exposure to wealthier peers increases lifetime earnings by an average of 20%.

Chetty’s team found that poorer people associate more with the affluent at religious institutions than at secular institutions like high schools, colleges, and workplaces. A low-income individual attending a religious congregation is significantly more likely to form a meaningful friendship with a high-income congregant than they would be in a workplace, school, or neighborhood group.

Perhaps most critically, religion provides a sense of community and ties that are more tangible than those found online, at school, or in the workplace. For instance, just 10% of religious observants say they have no close friends; the number almost doubles for those who have no faith. For young families, in particular, the religious community offers a village in which to raise children in an era of atomized parenting. This functional utility is a major driver of individuals returning to church in their thirties.

The church, notes Aaron Renn, a leading protestant intellectual, provides a mechanism, particularly for the young, to escape the loneliness and alienation associated with the “negative world.” Even though plagued at times by racial and ethnic division, the church’s role was “not merely socially useful but as “part of a gospel obligation.”

Three-quarters of those who attend church weekly give to the poor, compared with 41% of non-observants. Overall, 73% of all charitable contributions come from religious sources, while 60% of all beds for the homeless are from faith-based institutions.

Indeed, when volunteerism has been on a decline among the young, the young religious are more likely to perform community work than their nonreligious Gen Z counterparts. Data from a nationally representative survey of nearly 2,000 young adults ages 18 to 25 coordinated by Neighborly Faith reveals that half of religious Gen Zers report volunteering in the community often or very often, compared with 30% of slightly religious Gen Zers and just 21% of not religious Gen Zers. 

In the end, our report finds that the growing evidence of religion’s basic utility, including its provision of a spiritual anchor, seems likely to grow, by offering a viable alternative to hyper-competition and individualism rife in secular-driven societies. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 20:55

CNN Issues Dire Warning To Democrats On 2026 Governors' Races

Zero Hedge -

CNN Issues Dire Warning To Democrats On 2026 Governors' Races

Midterm elections have rarely been kind to the party in the White House. Republicans lost both chambers in 2006 under George W. Bush; Democrats were crushed under Barack Obama in 2010 and again in 2014; Republicans lost the House under Donald Trump in 2018; and Democrats narrowly lost the House under Biden in 2022. The lone exception was 2002, when Republicans gained seats in both chambers after 9/11. Otherwise, the pattern is clear: the president’s party almost always faces setbacks.

With the 2026 midterm elections months away, Democrats have many reasons to feel confident they will, at the very least, win back control of the House, which would be enough to effectively stall Trump’s agenda, and most certainly find something to impeach for. 

Over at RealClearPolitics, Democrats currently hold an average lead in the generic congressional ballot of +4.6 points. Only one pollster in the average - RMG Research - shows Republicans ahead, and even then by just 2 points. The Democratic advantage isn’t particularly large, and there’s ample reason to believe that a strong economy could boost the GOP in November, but when you look at gubernatorial elections, the advantage is clearly with the Republican Party.

On Wednesday, CNN's Harry Enten painted an unflattering picture of the Democrats when it comes to this year’s gubernatorial races.

"Look at this, a majority, a majority, 26. That is, at this point, the number of governors that are expected at least tilting towards the Republican Party at this point. Democrats come in at just 20. The rest of the races are toss-up,” Enten said. “Of course, you sum up to 50. And I will note that the Republicans right now hold a 26 to 24 gubernatorial seat advantage.”

That's the current baseline. Republicans enter 2026 holding more governor’s mansions, and the trajectory doesn't appear to favor a Democratic reversal. But, according to Enten, even accounting for toss-up races, the GOP is likely to come out ahead. "So at this point, it doesn't look like Republicans on the net and the aggregate are actually going to lose any governorships. In fact, when you add in those toss-ups, they may gain," he explained. "So this should stand as a major wake-up call to Democrats, because if there's a wave building, it has not, at least at this point, hit the state level when it comes to governorships."

Democrats have not held a majority of governorships since 2010 - the longest stretch of gubernatorial minority status the party has endured in at least a century. Republicans have controlled a majority of state legislatures since 2012. One might call that a structural realignment that's been hiding in plain sight while national media fixates on presidential elections and control of Congress.

Why does any of this matter? Enten answered that directly. "This is a massive problem for Democrats, because as we mentioned at the top, a lot of the policy is determined on the state level. And if all of a sudden you can't actually lead a majority of governorships, the executive branch on the state level, that means Republicans are in fact forming and implementing most of the policies in the states, and therefore a lot of the policies nationwide," he said.

The way Enten sees it, congressional seats may generate headlines, but governorships generate policy at the state level, which could have nationwide implications, including Medicaid expansion decisions, election integrity, redistricting, and regulatory enforcement - all of it flows through state executives. 

Democrats clearly enter the 2026 midterm elections with a structural advantage in winning control of Congress, but the GOP may still have a hidden advantage due to its majority of governorships. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 20:30

Mortgage Recast Versus Refinancing: Which Works For You?

Zero Hedge -

Mortgage Recast Versus Refinancing: Which Works For You?

Authored by Anne Johnson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

If you come into some extra funds, you might want to consider applying them to your mortgage. It’s a great way to pay down the principal or lower your monthly mortgage payment. Lowering your monthly mortgage payment is particularly helpful if you often have cash-flow issues.

William Potter/Shutterstock

There are ways to lower your monthly mortgage by using recasting or refinancing. Each option works differently, so it’s important to understand how they compare.

Recasting a Mortgage

Mortgage recasting is when you make a lump-sum payment to your principal balance. Once done, your lender then calculates a new, lower monthly payment. Your interest rate stays the same.

For example, suppose you owe $250,000 on your mortgage and receive a $50,000 inheritance. If you use all of it to recast your mortgage, your lender will recalculate your monthly payments based on a $250,000 balance, lowering your monthly payment.

Refinancing a Mortgage

With refinancing a mortgage, you take out a new home loan and use it to pay off the outstanding balance of your existing mortgage. This is often done to secure a lower rate. Typically, the new rate results in a lower monthly payment and less overall cost.

Refinancing doesn’t require a lump sum payment toward the principal.

Costs of Recasting and Refinancing a Mortgage

According to Experian, both recasting and refinancing come with costs. For example, you will be charged an administrative fee for a mortgage recast. This typically runs a few hundred dollars, depending on the lender.

Mortgage refinancing has a different cost structure. Closing costs can total two to five percent of the loan amount.

Can All Types of Mortgages Be Recast or Refinanced?

Conventional loans can be recast, but according to PNC Insights, not all mortgage types are eligible. Government-backed loans, including those from the Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, are not eligible for recast.

Conventional and government-backed mortgages are eligible for refinancing.

When Do Borrowers Refinance or Recast a Mortgage?

Refinancing, technically, gives you a new mortgage with new interest and terms. For example, if you have a 30-year mortgage, you can refinance to a 15-year mortgage or vice versa.

Most borrowers refinance to obtain a better interest rate or switch from an adjustable-rate to a fixed mortgage. They also may use it to switch equity to cash.

A mortgage recast uses cash to pay down some of the loan’s principal. It is often used when a borrower receives a large sum of money, such as a bonus or an inheritance.

According to PNC Insights, it can be used when a borrower purchases a house before selling the current one. When the previous home sells, the proceeds can be used to recast the new home’s mortgage.

However, the lender may require two months of on-time payments before authorizing a recast.

Advantages of a Mortgage Recast

There are several benefits of a mortgage recast. By reducing your principal, you lower your monthly payment without extending your loan term.

A recast mortgage is not a new loan. So, you will not need a credit check or home appraisal to apply.

If you’re already locked into a low interest rate, it’s a way to keep your current rate while lowering your monthly payment.

There usually are lower administrative fees associated with a recast mortgage. According to Alcova Mortgage, they typically fall between $150 and $500.

According to SoFi Learn, if you make a lump-sum payment to bring your loan down to 80 percent of the home’s value, you can request to stop paying the private mortgage insurance or have it automatically dropped when the value reaches 78 percent.

Disadvantages of a Mortgage Recast

According to Rocket Mortgage, there are cons to a mortgage recast. One disadvantage is that your lender may not allow a recast. You are also limited to a conventional loan, because government-backed loans don’t allow a mortgage recast.

The loan-repayment term is not shortened, either. Your payment goes down, but if you have a 30-year loan, you can’t change it to a 15-year or other-year loan.

Losing access to equity is a problem. Your contributed cash will be tied up in your home equity. This means you’ll need to refinance or apply for a home equity loan or home equity line of credit if you need access to your home’s equity.

Refinancing Mortgage Advantages

You have options when refinancing. The loan conditions can be changed. For example, you can shorten or lengthen your term, take a lower interest rate or refinance to a new loan.

Almost any loan qualifies for a refinance. It may be your only option if you want a lower payment and you have a government-backed loan.

You also have the option to choose a new lender if you’re not satisfied with the current one.

Refinancing Mortgage Disadvantages

Refinancing is a new loan and usually has more costs than a recast. Refinanced loans include origination fees, appraisal fees, and other closing costs.

The clock turns back with a refinanced loan. This means if you’re 15 years into a 30-year loan, if you finance for another 30-year loan, it starts over. You lost the 15 years you already paid for.

With refinancing, since it’s technically a new loan, you pay more in interest at the beginning of your loan. You don’t start paying on the principal until later in the term. This means you could end up paying more interest throughout the life of the loan.

Mortgage Recasting and Refinancing

A mortgage recast lowers your monthly payments and saves you money on long-term interest. But you tie up equity.

However, not everyone qualifies for a recast. If you have a government-backed loan, for example, you’ll need to refinance.

The Epoch Times copyright © 2026. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times and ZeroHedge hold no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 20:05

80% Plunge In Immigration Is Reshaping Labor Market Math, But AI Wildcard Looms: Goldman

Zero Hedge -

80% Plunge In Immigration Is Reshaping Labor Market Math, But AI Wildcard Looms: Goldman

The Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration has resulted in an 80% collapse in net immigration to the USA, and has fundamentally altered the mathematics behind the nation's labor supply to the point where the level of job growth needed to maintain economic stability is now far lower, according to a new Goldman analysis. 

After a flood of more than 10.8 million illegal immigrants (official figure) entered the United States under Biden, net immigration - both legal and illegal - has gone from roughly one million people per year in the 2010s to around 500,000 in 2025, with a further drop to just 200,000 projected by Goldman for 2026. This has sharply reduced labor-force growth and lowered the economy's "breakeven" pace of job creation, the bank opines.

Here's Goldman vs. Brookings vs. the Congressional Budget Office on net immigration:

Now, the US will only need around 50,000 new jobs per month by the end of this year to keep the unemployment rate from rising, down from roughly 70,000 today.

At the same time, Goldman says labor demand still looks "shaky" because job growth is narrow and job openings are trending lower - with the main downside risk being a faster, more disruptive AI-driven adjustment that could tamp down hiring or raise job losses beyond current estimates. 

Elevated deportations, tighter visa / green-card policies, a pause in immigrant visa processing that affects dozens of countries, and the loss of Temporary Protected Status for some groups, Goldman suggests there is additional downside risk to the workforce.

A shakier demand picture

Of course, new math on the labor supply doesn't mean the labor market is strong (duh)... In fact, Goldman describes demand as “shaky,” writing that job growth has become increasingly narrow - dominated by healthcare - and that job openings have continued to fall. Openings are now around seven million, below pre-pandemic levels and still declining.

Because fewer new workers are entering the economy, hiring no longer needs to run as hot to prevent unemployment from drifting higher. “A small pickup is all that should be needed to sustain job growth at the breakeven pace,” according to the report, arguing that weaker-looking payroll numbers may increasingly mask a labor market that is merely treading water rather than deteriorating.

Official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show a similar trend, with job openings drifting toward the mid-six-million range late last year. A continued slide in openings, Goldman warns, would increase the risk that unemployment rises more meaningfully, even with slower labor-force growth.

There is also a risk that tighter immigration enforcement is pushing more workers into informal or off-the-books employment. If so, official payroll data could understate the true level of labor-market activity, complicating the Federal Reserve’s task of gauging economic momentum.

AI looms as the wildcard

Goldman sees artificial intelligence (AI) as the largest downside risk to the labor outlook - not because it has already triggered mass layoffs, but because it may restrain hiring at the margin. So far, the firm estimates that AI-related substitution has shaved only 5,000 to 10,000 jobs from monthly growth in the most exposed industries. But a faster or more disruptive deployment could weigh more heavily on demand.

...the main reason that we worry about downside risk to our baseline forecast that the labor market will stabilize going forward is the possibility of a faster and more disruptive deployment of artificial intelligence (AI). While plenty of recent anecdotes point to a potentially faster rate of adoption and corresponding job losses, it is hard to know how these will translate to macroeconomic outcomes. -Goldman

The bank shows that job growth has slowed and turned slightly negative in several subindustries where AI is most ready to deploy, while company-level anecdotes indicate that AI is already reducing the need for workers. The impact, while visible, remains 'moderate' so far. 

For now, the bank expects the unemployment rate to drift only modestly higher, toward 4.5%, while Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a separate note (available to Pro subs) that the probability of a recession next year is "moderate" at 20%. The labor market, in the firm’s words, is taking “early steps toward stabilization.”

The paradox is that stability may increasingly look like weakness. As immigration slows and the workforce grows more slowly, payroll gains that once signaled trouble may soon be enough to keep the labor market steady - at least on paper.

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 19:40

Iran Leans On Russia To Develop Oilfields

Zero Hedge -

Iran Leans On Russia To Develop Oilfields

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

Iran and Russia are strengthening their economic and energy cooperation and consider joint development of another Iranian oilfield, top officials from the countries said on Wednesday.    

Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev led a high-level Russian delegation on a visit to Tehran this week during which Tsivilev and Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad discussed deepening the economic and energy cooperation.

In the face of increased pressure from U.S. sanctions, Iran and Russia have boosted their bilateral relations to strategic cooperation and Russian companies help develop oilfields in Iran.  

“Within the framework of four contracts and in the field of development of oil and gas fields, we are jointly implementing the development of seven oil fields with Russian companies, and fortunately some of these projects have led to production, which is considered a valuable achievement,” Paknejad said on Wednesday, as carried by Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA. 

Some of these oil and gas fields have started up production, the officials said.  

Commenting on this week’s Iran-Russia talks, a senior official at the Iranian Oil Ministry said that the share of Russia-developed fields in Iran’s oil production is set to double in the coming years. 

Russia is currently investing in seven Iranian oil fields, which account for about 6% of Iran’s total oil production, said Mostafa Barzegar, Director General for Europe, America and the Commonwealth of Independent States at the Ministry of Oil’s International Affairs Department.  

Expectations are that the share could jump to 12% over the next few years, Barzegar said. 

In the energy sector, the official said that cooperation in oil and gas is one of the pillars of Iran–Russia relations, Iran News Daily reports. 

Iran and Russia have also signed a $25-billion memorandum of understanding for the construction of new large-scale and small-scale nuclear power plants in the Sirik region in southern Iran. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 19:15

US Withdrawing All Forces From Syria, Over A Year After Regime Change By Proxy War

Zero Hedge -

US Withdrawing All Forces From Syria, Over A Year After Regime Change By Proxy War

Last week we and others reported that American forces finally after many years withdrew from the remote Al-Tanf Garrison, a base in southern Syria near the borders of Iraq and Jordan. US troops had long operated out of Tanf to pressure the Assad government as part of the long-running US-backed regime change project. The US primarily trained the Syrian Free Army (FSA) in that remote desert area - which was an umbrella group of various factions, among them jihadists, armed and funded by Washington.

But the majority of US forces had long occupied the northeast of the country, where the oil and gas fields are concentrated, specifically Hasakah and Deir Ezzor provinces. But over several weeks, the Pentagon has been handing over its constellation of small bases to the Syrian government of Ahmed al-Sharaa (al-Qaeda and ISIS name: Abu Mohammad al-Jolani). At times throughout the Syrian proxy war, the US had anywhere from 800 to 2000 troops on the ground, but likely also more contractors and intelligence operatives.

Under Trump, Washington has been weighing a complete withdrawal since the year's start, having fully backed the Jolani regime in the wake of the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. This has been awkward to put it mildly, given Jolani had long been on the US terror list, after being dropped once he took control of Damascus.

On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reports, "The U.S. is in the process of withdrawing all of its roughly 1,000 troops from Syria, according to three American officials, ending a decadelong military operation in the country."

Getty Images

One question is whether this is connected to the Pentagon's Iran-related build-up a little further to the east. WSJ notes on this, "The officials said the withdrawal was unrelated to the current U.S. deployment of naval and air forces in the Middle East for potential strikes against Iran if talks about that country’s nuclear program fail."

Another issue is the Kurds. The US for a decade trained and armed the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but now is cutting them lose. Kurdish leaders have warned of attacks by hardline Sunni militants under the new Damascus government.

"The Trump administration has decided that a U.S. military presence in Syria is no longer necessary, two U.S. officials said, because of the near-total disbandment of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, the main U.S. partner in countering Islamic State in Syria for the past decade," WSJ continues.

And yet US officials previously admitted to the same publication that post-Assad Syrian Army is "riddled with jihadist sympathizers, including soldiers with ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS and others who have been involved in alleged war crimes against the Kurds and Druze."

This has been extremely controversial as the US-backed Kurds and SDF forces have been attacked while Damascus forces move in. Abandonment of the stateless Kurds has been a clear pattern of Washington policy over time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 18:50

Waste Of The Day: Principal Bought Lobster With School Funds

Zero Hedge -

Waste Of The Day: Principal Bought Lobster With School Funds

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: Most New York public school lunches consist of room temperature chicken nuggets or reheated pizza. But at Wyandanch Memorial High School on Long Island, principal Paul Sibblies dined on steak and lobster at taxpayers’ expense.

Sibblies reimbursed himself a total of $35,519 from 2021 to 2024 using cash meant for a school club, without approval or supervision from anyone besides his own secretary, according to an audit obtained by Newsday.

Key facts: Sibblies paid himself 41 times using money from the high school’s Kappa League club, a leadership program affiliated with the Kappa Alpha Psi fraternity.

The most concerning was the steak and lobster Sibblies and an unidentified person ate at a restaurant in Delaware. Sibblies reimbursed himself $126 for the bill, which also included alcohol. He logged the transaction as “EOY Academic Success.”

Larry Aronstein, the district’s former interim superintendent, told Newsday that Sibblies was paying himself back for expenses he had laid out on behalf of the school. Sibblies told Newsday the steak and lobster meal was “school-related” but declined to answer other questions.

The school board appears unsatisfied with that explanation. They appointed legal counsel in November 2025 to investigate the audit’s findings, according to Newsday.

We know what is personal and what is for the sake of students,” board trustee Jarod Morris told Newsday. “A steak and lobster dinner in Delaware is personal.”

Separately, auditors flagged other questionable expenses at the Wyandanch Free Union School District, including a jet ski rental in Bermuda. The school district was also missing records showing how much was spent on field trips and donated to clubs.

The audit was completed in early 2025 and made public last month.

Background: Sibblies likely could have afforded his luxury meal himself. He made $192,479 in 2024, according to payroll records obtained by Open the Books.

That made him the fourth-highest paid person in the district. He was one of 24 people making at least $150,000.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com

Supporting quote: "I know his character, and for whatever that's worth, I think he's a good man,” Aronstein told Newsday about Sibblies. “He runs a very good school and is committed to providing his students enrichment experiences that they can have going beyond the borders of Wyandanch.”

Summary: Even a high school student knows that taxpayer money should not be spent without basic checks and oversight.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 18:25

Japan's Top Toilet Maker Is 'Undervalued, Overlooked' AI Play Over 'Cryogenic Etching' Technology, Activist Investor Says

Zero Hedge -

Japan's Top Toilet Maker Is 'Undervalued, Overlooked' AI Play Over 'Cryogenic Etching' Technology, Activist Investor Says

Japan's top toilet maker, Toto, is an undervalued AI play according to activist investment fund Palliser Capital. 

Employees bond a toilet bowl with a rim. The work is demanding, requiring muscles to lift bowls and tanks, as well as a delicate touch to smooth surfaces. David Walter Banks for The Wall Street Journal

The UK-based fund sent a letter to Toto's board asking for more disclosure over its advanced ceramics segment, which produces electrostatic chucks used in NAND manufacturing - specifically for a process called cryogenic etching. Toto's chuck technology uses ceramics designed to remain stable at very low temperatures, which can help firmly secure silicon wafers during chip production. 

According to Palliser, Toto is "the most undervalued and overlooked AI memory beneficiary," and says that the Japanese company has a five-year competitive "moat" before other companies can catch up, adding that the advanced ceramics segment could deliver 30% or more revenue growth over the next few years, "driven by Nand upgrade cycle and stable replacement demand."

Palliser also says that Toto is doing a terrible job of explaining the importance of electrostatic chucks to shareholders, and too little of the company's planned investment was devoted to growing the highly profitable segment. 

The activist investor began its involvement with Toto roughly six months ago and is a top-20 shareholder in the business, according to the Financial Times. The fund's other investments include holdings in property company Tokyo Tatemono, Keisei Electric Railway, which runs trains in Tokyo, and Japan Post Holdings.

Toto has set up an automated production line at its ceramics factory in Japan's Oita prefecture. (Toto)

Palliser thinks Toto shares could rise over 55% if it expands its advanced ceramics business, sold cross-shareholdings, and used its $496 million (¥76bn) in net cash better. 

Toto is best known for its heated toilet seats and "Washlet" bidet features, however Palliser says they've "quietly evolved from a traditional domestic sanitary ware champion into a rising powerhouse in advanced ceramics for semiconductor manufacturing."

Shares in the company have already risen over 60% in the past year. 

In late January, Goldman upgraded Toto from Neutral to Buy - writing "We expect significant profit growth in its new domain business segment (which mainly
produces electrostatic chucks for NAND and accounts for 55% of Toto’s operating profits) on the back of increased demand for NAND associated with the build-out of AI infrastructure and a tight supply/demand environment."

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 18:00

No 'Gentlemen's Agreement' With Russia To Continue Compliance With New Start Treaty: Top Official

Zero Hedge -

No 'Gentlemen's Agreement' With Russia To Continue Compliance With New Start Treaty: Top Official

Via The Libertarian Institute 

Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Christopher Yeaw said that there was no informal agreement between the US and Russia to maintain the limits on nuclear weapons imposed by the New Start Treaty. The pact expired earlier this month.

During an event at the Hudson Institute on Monday, Yeaw was asked if there was a "gentlemen’s agreement" with Moscow to abide by the New Start Treaty. He responded, "I know of no such agreement. And that is still in the President’s hands."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained that Moscow was willing to continue to comply with the New Start Treaty, but Washington did not respond to the proposal. "The initiative put forward by President Putin for the parties to the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms to continue voluntarily observing its central quantitative limits was left without an official response from the American side," he told the Russian Duma last week.

"We proceed from the understanding that the moratorium announced by President Putin remains in force on our side, but only as long as the United States does not exceed the above limits." Lavrov added, "We will act responsibly and in a balanced manner based on daily analysis of US military policy and the overall strategic environment."

Yeaw claimed that the death of the New Start Treaty could usher in a "Renaissance" of arms control. However, the outlook for a new treaty to cap nuclear weapons appears unlikely.

"The president certainly wants China in this agreement. I don’t know exactly the path that we will take to get there," he admitted.

"I imagine it will be a difficult one. I don’t think anyone is under any illusions that this will be easy. It wasn’t easy in 2020, we tried to get to a similar spot," Yeaw added.

The relationship between the US and Russia is at a historic low. Western sanctions have nearly eliminated trade with Russia, and NATO’s support for Ukraine has further eroded ties.

Additionally, President Donald Trump is demanding that any new nuclear deal include China. While Beijing is a nuclear power, its stockpile is far smaller than Washington’s and Moscow’s strategic arsenals.

Yeaw went on to say President Trump was considering testing a nuclear weapon. The Assistant Secretary asserted the US was confident China had conducted nuclear weapons tests in recent years. Yeaw argued that the US was at an "intolerable disadvantage" if it was maintaining a nuclear test ban while other countries were testing weapons [hint, hint: China].

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 17:40

GLP-1 Anti-Obesity U.S. Drug Market In Four Charts

Zero Hedge -

GLP-1 Anti-Obesity U.S. Drug Market In Four Charts

Beyond the most recent GLP-1 feud between Hims & Hers and Novo Nordisk, UBS analysts shift attention to anti-obesity drug trends in the U.S. market for the first week of February.

Analysts led by Matthew Weston focused on new data that show new-to-brand prescriptions (NBRx) for starter doses and all doses across the major obesity GLP-1s in a series of charts:

Obesity GLP-1 starter dose NBRx (up to 2/6/2026)

GLP-1 starter dose NBRx trends (up to 2/6/2026)

GLP-1 starter dose NBRx market share (up to 2/6/2026)

Obesity GLP-1 all doses Total Prescriptions (TRx, up to 2/6/2026)

Weston concluded:

NBRx trends for Wegovy continue to look strong with an encouraging start to the Wegovy pill launch. The uptick in NBRx at the start of the year for Wegovy pen is also going in the right direction. Importantly, the high proportion of Wegovy NBRx pill to TRx and high proportion of Wegovy pill starter dose NBRx to total NBRx suggest that there is very little cannibalisation of Wegovy pen volumes through the pill launch. Further focus points later in the year will be Medicare coverage from July, high dose Wegovy (7.2mg) launch and competitive dynamics from LLY's orforglipron launch (UBSe April).

The latest GLP-1 headline came from Europe earlier on Tuesday, when the European Commission cleared Novo to use a higher 7.2 mg maintenance dose of Wegovy. This approval reinforces that even greater demand for semaglutide is inbound.

In markets, Novo shares in Copenhagen have been pummeled by market share losses to rival GLP-1 drugs, a public feud with Hims & Hers over copycat GLP-1 offerings, and a recently downbeat outlook for the year. Still, the stock’s downside momentum has eased in recent quarters, although it remains about 70% below its 2024 peak.

Meanwhile, Goldman analyst Faris Mourad previously told clients that "obesity drug narrative sentiment is on the rise" and "it's an opportunity to buy the dip." James Quigley (Novo superbull) has remained bullish during Novo's bear market.

Professional subscribers can read the full UBS GLP-1 note on our new Marketdesk.ai portal​​​.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 17:20

Not How This Works…

The Big Picture -

 

 

“Let me tell you how this works:  A twenty-six-year-old quantitative analyst at a hedge fund in midtown Manhattan—a person who has never managed an employee, never sat across from a customer, never had to explain to someone that their position has been eliminated—opens a spreadsheet, sees that your company’s headcount is 14% higher than a competitor’s, and writes a note to institutional investors that your stock is overweight.

That note gets circulated and your stock drops. Your board panics. They call the CEO, who was hired eighteen months ago specifically to “unlock shareholder value,” a phrase that should be studied by future anthropologists as one of the great euphemisms of our time. An all-hands meeting is called. Two weeks later, 3,000 people get a calendar invite from HR titled “Quick Chat.”

This is the system working exactly as designed.”

 

No, this is not how this works.

I see this stuff all the time. Sometimes it’s a news item, or a Substack post, or a video clip that purports “a great truth” about markets and companies. Clients, friends, even family members who don’t work in finance share this with me (the excerpt above was from a Substack).

The implication: the system is somehow both already broken and fragile.

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how markets operate, what drives stocks, and how information truly gets reflected in prices.

Let me explain why this is decidedly not how things work.

The information this 26-year-old analyst “discovered” is a simple ratio. It shows the number of employees relative to some other metric, such as revenue or profits. Assume it came from a well-known (trustworthy) data source. It’s available to various market participants: the 400,000 professionals who pay $3,000 per month for a Bloomberg Terminal; the near-professionals who subscribe to other databases or free versions available in broker research. You can even find variations on Yahoo Finance or Google.

Each of these participants has huge financial incentives to apply this analysis to their own portfolios. But they don’t, because of one simple reason: Zero edge. A widely reported ratio that every other investor has access to provides no advantage over other market participants with that same ratio.

It is already in the stock price.

When I was a newbie trader, it took me a good long time to understand why this is true – and indeed, could not be any other way.

All fundamental information that is widely distributed and/or well known by the investment community is already priced in. Hundreds of thousands of people are deeply incentivized to identify alpha — information that allows you to outperform the markets – and then to deploy capital based on that.

That already happened here.

What is the edge in the story above? What is the insight this “discovery” – and I believe it’s nothing of the kind – uniquely provides to this person?

There is simply no alpha in widely available information, such as an obvious, well-known, easily discovered ratio.

~~~

Let’s do a quick thought experiment:

Imagine the scenario outlined above was successful: what would happen if some inexperienced kid at some fund spotted an aberrational datapoint, wrote up a research note, took it public, which led to a hugely profitable trade?

What would happen next?

Some of you know exactly what would come next: Every fund would unleash every MBA in their shop (along with anyone half decent with Excel) to find the next version of that trade. No data point would go unnoticed, no ratio would sit unanalyzed, no possible combination of variables would remain untried. Any and every possible source of Alpha would be explored, war-gamed, backtested, and modelled.

If other trade possibilities like this one existed, someone would find it and act on it. Others would quickly follow. Soon, the “proper” alignment between these ratios would fall into place. Any upside would be thoroughly arbitraged away…

Markets are not perfectly efficient; I have described them as kind of sorta eventually efficient. I have yet to find anything that disproves this thesis.1

But as far as the major issues go — the big obvious things found in newspaper headlines, in any datapoint in every Bloomberg terminal, in the free research via brokers or online websites — you may safely assume that 98% of the time, it’s already in the price.

What is not in the price?

Many things, across many vectors:

-Genuinely new, unknown information. (FDA Approves new drug!)

-A unique analytical framework no one else has access to (Renaissance Technologies’ 3000 separate proprietary, unique trading algos)

-Insight into a product (The Cybertruck sucks!)

-Recognition of a deeply flawed business model (short Microstrategy!)

-Grasp of a market unknown (Rivian R2 is going to be a global bestseller!)

-Legal insight (SCOTUS will overturn Tariffs — retailers and industrials will benefit)

-Complex risk analysis (Securitized subprime mortgages are sure going to be problematic if rates go up!)

-Behavioral recognition of a crowd mania (Silver sure looks bubbly over $75 100!)

All of these and more can be sources of alpha. But they must genuinely be poorly known or misunderstood by the crowd, and acted on even less.

Good bets made by active traders and managers amid fierce competition look different than bets made on very publicly available information.

They tend to start with a variant perception versus crowd consensus; one where price was significantly impacted, and this perception hasn’t been acted on (yet), and hopefully remains that way until you establish your position. The crowd, correct most of the time (we call this a trend), is wrong in this instance; once it recognizes its mistake, it shifts away from what is now seen as an incorrect consensus and adjusts its portfolios accordingly.

Not all active players trade this way, but enough do. These great insights do not come along every day, but they occur frequently enough to entice an entire active segment of the market to consistently hunt for them.

And that 26-year-old spreadsheet jockey? He is going to need more than a simple headcount ratio to find any alpha…

 

 

 

Previously:
Tariffs Likely To Be Overturned (November 5, 2025)

The kinda-eventually-sorta-mostly-almost Efficient Market Theory (November 20, 2004)

 

 

 

__________

1. Indeed, even the Nobel Prize committee acknowledged this by recognizing in the same year both Eugene Fama for his efficient market hypothesis and Robert Shiller for studies of how bubbles develop and pop.

 

The post Not How This Works… appeared first on The Big Picture.

Voter ID Is Common Sense, But It Won't Fix Anything

Zero Hedge -

Voter ID Is Common Sense, But It Won't Fix Anything

Authored by Connor O'Keefe via The Mises Institute,

As panic builds within the GOP over the approaching midterm elections, Republicans have renewed a push for one of their most popular policy proposals: voter ID.

In the latest version of the so-called SAVE America Act—formerly just the SAVE Act—Congressional Republicans added a requirement for every voter in federal elections to provide poll workers with a valid government-issued photo ID if they’re voting in person or a copy of a valid photo ID if they’re voting by mail.

On Friday—a day after the House passed the law and sent it to the Senate—President Trump put out a post in support of voter ID requirements, which led Senate Democrats to issue familiar denunciations of the policy while promising to block this version of the bill.

The arguments in favor of voter ID are pretty straightforward. If every eligible American citizen is entitled to one vote, poll workers and election officials should confirm that the person voting is who they say they are, so that people cannot submit extra or fraudulent votes by pretending to be someone else. And the best way to do that is the same way identities are confirmed in most other clerical settings—with an officially-recognized photo ID.

The vast majority of Americans, including over 70 percent of Democrats, are in favor of this measure. But that hasn’t stopped top Democratic leaders and many of the Left’s most vocal activists from blocking legislation and loudly opposing any step towards a federal voter ID law.

However, the arguments most often made against voter ID do not stand up well to even the slightest scrutiny. 

First, opponents will often point out—correctly—that there is no undisputable evidence of “widespread” voter fraud. They’ll then use that fact to argue that voter ID is a burdensome solution to a fake problem.

But if there was an actual conspiracy to either foment or permit voter fraud in a way that successfully flipped an election, it would not be “widespread,” it would be targeted. Even in large national elections like the presidential race, the outcome is almost always decided by a small handful of precincts. So a conspiracy to commit or allow “widespread” voter fraud would not only be pointless, it would all but guarantee its discovery.

Next, critics often assert that an ID requirement would prevent millions of legitimate voters from casting their ballots because they do not currently have a valid photo ID. But if that’s really true, the emphasis has been in the wrong place. The difficulties faced by people without any form of photo ID go far beyond voting, since ID requirements have become an increasingly frequent aspect of American public life. The obvious way for politicians to fix that problem would be to make it easier for people to get photo IDs, not to leave all those clerical barriers in place while preserving a gap that could allow people to commit voter fraud.

Finally, with the SAVE America Act specifically, its opponents in Congress are trying to frame this as an illegal “nationalization” of elections. There may be something to this argument if Trump tries to do this through executive action. But the Constitution gives Congress a fair amount of control over federal elections, which it has used with recent legislation like the National Voter Registration Act, the Voting Rights Act, and the Help America Vote Act.

Overall, it’s quite clear that the arguments against voter ID are not genuine arguments but excuses to preserve a status quo that has been advantageous to the party making them.

The lopsided polling on this issue indicates that most people, in both parties, aren’t falling for these talking points anymore.

So even if the SAVE America Act stalls in the Senate, it is certainly possible that some version of voter ID will become federal law in the near future.

But while that would probably be great for Republican politicians, candidates, and RNC officials focused on beating Democrats in elections, there is no reason to think it alone will genuinely put this country on a better path.

Because, while there are indeed some meaningful differences between the parties which keep elections from becoming an entirely meaningless ritual, the lesson of the last twenty years—at least—is that people tend to significantly overestimate how much elections matter, and, in doing so, get distracted from the most malicious and damaging government programs, which tend to have quiet, bipartisan support.

In the past two decades, almost every single presidential election has been won by a so-called “change” candidate who presented themselves as a sharper departure from the status quo than their opponent.

Obama won in 2008 by presenting himself as a repudiation of the financial cronyism and foreign interventionism of the W. Bush years. Trump won in 2016 by campaigning against the foreign wars, lax immigration restrictions, and crony neoliberalism of both the establishment Democrats and Republicans. Even in 2020, Biden rode to victory on a wave of utter exhaustion with the chaos of Trump’s media war with the establishment and the pandemonium set off by the government’s response to the covid pandemic—presenting himself as an abrupt deviation back to the “normalcy” of the Obama years. Finally, in his second victory, Trump and his team presented themselves as being ready and able to really deliver all the change he had promised the first time around, having totally learned from their mistakes in the first term.

But each and every time, the “change” candidate ended up delivering the exact kind of crony, inflationist, interventionist status quo with, at most, a few minor and easily-reversible executive actions to keep their base happy for a bit.

As Ryan McMaken laid out in an article earlier this month, this shouldn’t surprise anybody who understands where power truly resides in this country. It does not lie mostly with the handful of bombastic politicians and political appointees who fill the heavily-televised halls and briefing rooms on Capitol Hill, at the White House, and in the various executive agencies, as we learn in elementary school.

The bulk of federal power lies with a large group of governing elites, most of whom are faceless, seemingly unimportant bureaucrats, “nonpartisan” federal officials, and well-connected heads of industry. And that class of people—call them the establishment, the political class, the elites, whatever—are not willing or interested in surrendering their power.

Primarily by using their institutional control to determine which candidates voters get the option of voting for, the established governing elites have brought about a comfortable political status quo for them where both major parties spend all their time fighting ferociously over issues that—while certainly not unimportant—pose no actual risk to the establishment’s interventionist, inflationist, crony rackets that are quietly expanding their power and transferring a tremendous amount of the American public’s wealth to the elites and their friends.

This has been great for the establishment. But the whole scheme requires keeping the population blind to how badly it’s being ripped off. And, as I hinted at above, one of the main ways the current governing elites in America do that is by aggressively playing up the differences between establishment Republicans and establishment Democrats, to keep us all in a state of perpetual certainty that nearly all of our current societal problems will be, if not solved, greatly diminished if “our party” just wins the next election.

Look back at the unbridled joy and overwhelming sense of accomplishment and hope that voters on both sides felt after their party won each of the elections I talked about before. With Obama in 2008, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Trump again in 2024, there was a palpable sense among their supporters after the election that the battle was won, and things would now, finally, be alright. The same goes for a lot of midterm elections—most famously the “Republican Revolution” in 1994 and the Democrats’ “Blue Wave” in 2018.

All that optimism looks almost delusional in hindsight, knowing where we’ve ended up. But that isn’t really the fault of the voters in question. They were deliberately tricked. Because there is no better way for the current elites to fortify their power than to convince roughly half of the population at any given time that they are in control now, that they are in power, that they are winning.

If we’re ever going to truly escape this awful status quo—as a sizable portion of the American public clearly desires—it won’t come from a policy like voter ID. It will happen once “both sides” understand that they are losing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 17:00

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