Coinbase Exec Says Senate CLARITY Act Deal On Stablecoin Yield "Very Close"

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is “moving toward” a markup hearing in the US Senate Banking Committee and could eventually move to a floor vote if senators resolve the stablecoin yield dispute and schedule a markup.

Speaking in a Wednesday interview on Fox Business, Grewal said lawmakers are nearing agreement on core elements of the crypto market structure bill, even as debate continues over stablecoin yield.

“I think we’re very close to a deal,” he said.

The remarks point to possible movement on one of the last major sticking points in Senate talks over crypto market structure legislation: whether stablecoin issuers or platforms should be allowed to offer yield or similar rewards. The dispute has helped delay a Senate Banking Committee markup, leaving the broader effort to set federal rules for digital asset oversight still unresolved.

US banks have pushed for restrictions, arguing that such incentives could draw deposits away from traditional institutions and disrupt the banking system. Grewal pushed back on that claim, saying there is no evidence to support fears of deposit flight.

The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott delayed a planned markup, which has yet to be rescheduled.

Trump blames banks for stalling crypto bill

Last month, US President Donald Trump accused banks of undermining efforts to pass crypto market structure legislation, saying they are blocking progress over disagreements on stablecoin yield payments. “The Banks should not be trying to undercut The Genius Act, or hold The Clarity Act hostage,” he wrote.

It was later reported that Trump met privately with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong just hours before issuing the statement.

Coinbase shares are down 23% YTD. Source: Yahoo! Finance

In January, Armstrong said Coinbase could not back the market structure bill “as written,” pointing to draft amendments that would eliminate stablecoin rewards and let banks restrict competition.

CLARITY delay could expose crypto to crackdowns

Last week, Coin Center executive director Peter Van Valkenburgh warned that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could leave the crypto industry vulnerable to a future US administration taking a tougher stance. He argued that rejecting developer protections in favor of short-term business interests risks creating a system shaped by political shifts rather than clear law.

“The point of passing CLARITY is not to trust this administration. It is to bind the next one,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:55

Private Credit Bank Run Begins: Blue Owl Gates After Shocking 41% Of OTIC Investors Ask For Their Money

A week ago, in an attempt to calm the market, Goldman's economists published a lengthy, if at times disjointed, report discussing why a crisis in private credit would not lead to another financial crisis.

We are about to find out if they were right. 

Recall that in mid-March, while attention was understandably focused on the Iran war, we explained why Blue Owl's February decision to commence liquidations of loans in its three core private credit funds to fund current and future redemptions, was the industry's "Margin Call" moment, to wit: 

First it was Blue Owl, the largest pure play Private Credit fund with over $300 billion in AUM. The company, the first to face massive redemption demands, refused to gate investors and instead announced it would sell $1.4 billion in private loans (it was unclear which loans were sold, but Goldman suggested that these are likely the best ones so as to find willing buyers, leaving the company with the toxic sludge) from its three BDCs (OBDCII, OBDC and OTIC) at 99.7 cents (a number which was meant to inspire confidence yet was laughable, especially since once of the "buyers" was a related-party insurance company, Kuvare, also owned by Blue Owl), to satisfy redemption requests. 

In our February 19 article describing the Blue Owl transaction, we said that "while it is unclear how deep the secondary market for private credit assets is, to the extent demand is relatively scarce, a transaction of this size could dry up market liquidity. If that assumption is true, other BDCs looking to exit portfolio investments could be jeopardized. Recall the immortal line from Margin Call: "Be First, Be Smarter, or Cheat."

We then said that "this could very well be Blue Owl's "Be First" moment... "Sell it all, today" especially if it were to later emerge that the secondary market is only deep for higher quality private credit assets, like the ones in the portfolio OWL is selling. In a concurrent report, Barclays warned that "if this transaction dries up secondary liquidity for private credit assets (or proves that the bid is only there for higher quality assets), it could be negative for other BDCs exploring portfolio sales."

In retrospect, this is precisely when the "Margin Call moment" of the private credit sector happened, because what happened next would make the market's head spin.

And unfortunately for Blue Owl, while the firm's catastrophic practices and financial engineering was indeed the snowflake that started the avalanche in the broader private credit sector, it has now boomeranged on the company itself and may have well led to its demise when two months after desperately seeking to avoid gating redemptions, the private credit giant announced it will in fact limit redemptions from two of its private credit funds after facing a historic surge in withdrawal requests that is unprecedented among major firms in the $1.8 trillion market.

Redemption requests in Blue Owl's marquee $36 billion Credit Income Corp. fund, one of the industry’s largest, soared to 21.9% in the three months ended March 31, according to an investor letter first reported by Bloomberg, up from "only" 5.2% in the prior period. But it was the smaller Blue Owl Technology Income Corp, which was at the center of the February turmoil, that was the real shock after its shareholders asked for a shocking 40.7% back, compared with 15.4% three months earlier, according to a separate letter. 

Both funds had previously met the requests in excess of its 5% tender offer. This time, though, Blue Owl - whose actions sparked the crisis that is now sweeping across pricvate credit - said it would join industry peers in capping redemptions at that level, “in accordance with the fund structure, reflecting our commitment to balancing the interests of both tendering and remaining shareholders.”

For the bigger fund, OCIC, that amounts to $988 million of redemptions honored and about $3.2 billion remaining in the fund, while for OTIC it means redeeming $179 million and keeping roughly $1 billion of investors’ cash, according to Bloomberg.

Craig Packer, Blue Owl’s co-president, said in an investor update that he believed the uptick in redemptions reflected a “period of heightened negative sentiment toward the asset class that has intensified as peers have reported tender results”.

And why would their tender results be intensified one wonders? Would it have something to do with that pinnacle of financial engineering where Blue Owl dumped many of its best loans to a related entity? Maybe Craig thinks that his investors are all idiots, but as he just found out, they may be far smarter than him.

“While we believe market perception has driven elevated tender activity, underlying credit fundamentals across our portfolio have remained resilient,” he added. “We continue to observe a meaningful disconnect between the public dialogue on private credit and the underlying trends in our portfolio.”

In the letters, OCIC said 90% of its shareholders chose not to tender, reflecting concentrated withdrawal demands, which means it was driven by institutions not retail investors who have been frequently blamed for all the ills plaguing private credit.. OTIC said its redemption pressure “was amplified by the fund’s more concentrated shareholder base, particularly within certain wealth channels and regions, and its specialized investment mandate.”

Both Blue Owl funds, which have returned more than 9% annualized since inception (not all too different from how Bernie Madoff generated double digits returns until one day his ponzi scheme collapsed), said they’re in a “strong position” to meet the 5% redemption requests and future tenders. OCIC and OTIC had $11.3 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively, across cash, available borrowing and liquid Level 2 assets as of the end of February, according to the letters.

While Blue Owl joins industry peers including Apollo Global, Ares Management and BlackRock in sticking to their redemption threshold on non-traded business development companies, the staggering magnitude of the requests underscores how Blue Owl has found itself squarely in the middle of worries about private credit.

The limitation on outflows highlights the risks to individual investors who had flocked to so-called non-traded private credit funds over the past three years in periods of stress. Those wealthy individuals had been promised access to higher-yielding investments in exchange for limited liquidity. Now they are regretting it. 

Private credit asset managers have diverged in how they have dealt with redemption requests, with some going to great lengths to cash out investors, while others have stuck to their limit. Still, no major manager has disclosed facing the percentage that Blue Owl’s BDCs were asked to pay back.

And with Blue Owl's private credit business now effectively in wind down mode, and mothballing the entire private credit industry, one wonders where so many crappy small and medium (mostly tech) companies will get the funding to exist. But before that, one wonders more just how wrong Goldman's analysis is that a private credit crisis won't impact the broader economy. We'll find out very soon. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:35

CEO Of Largest Public Hospital System Says He's Ready To Replace Radiologists With AI

By Marty Stempniak of Radiology Business,

The chief executive of America’s largest public hospital system says he is prepared to start replacing radiologists with artificial intelligence in some circumstances, once the regulatory landscape catches up. 

Mitchell H. Katz, MD, president and CEO of NYC Health + Hospitals, recently spoke during a panel discussion held by Crain’s New York Business. The trained internal medicine specialist noted how AI is increasingly being used to interpret mammograms and X-rays. 

This presents an opportunity to save on how much hospitals spend on radiologists, who have become more costly amid rising demand for imaging, Crain’s reported Thursday. 

“We could replace a great deal of radiologists with AI at this moment, if we are ready to do the regulatory challenge,” Katz said at the forum, held on March 25. 

Katz—who has led the 11-hospital organization since 2018—said he sees great potential for AI to increase access to breast cancer screening. Hospitals could potentially produce “major savings” by letting the technology handle first reads, with radiologists then double-checking any abnormal screenings. 

Fellow panelist David Lubarsky, MD, MBA, president and CEO of the Westchester Medical Center Health Network, said his system is already seeing great success in deploying such technology. The AI Westchester uses misses very few breast cancers and is “actually better than human beings,” he told the audience.

“For women who aren’t considered high risk, if the test comes back negative, it’s wrong only about 3 times out of 10,000,” Lubarsky said. 

Katz asked fellow hospital CEOs if there is any reason why they shouldn’t be pushing for changes to New York state regulations, allowing AI to read images “without a radiologist,” Crain’s reported. In this scenario, rads could then provide second opinions, if AI flags any images as abnormal. Sandra Scott, MD, CEO of the One Brooklyn Health, a small hospital facing tight margins, agreed with this line of thinking, according to Crain’s. 

“I mean, I’m in charge of a safety-net institution. It would be a game-changer,” Scott said about AI being used to replace rads. 

The discussion comes after Dario Amodei, PhD, CEO of Anthropic, recently made similar statements about artificial intelligence replacing rads. In a podcast interview, he falsely stated that AI has taken over the specialty’s core function, allowing doctors to focus more on the human side of the job. Radiologists roundly criticized Amodei’s remarks. Mohammed Suhail, MD, a San Diego-based rad with North Coast Imaging, said the same about Katz’s comments on Monday. 

“Undeniable proof that confidently uninformed hospital administrators are a danger to patients: easily duped by AI companies that are nowhere near capable of providing patient care,” Suhail told Radiology Business. “Any attempt to implement AI-only reads would immediately result in patient harm and death, and only someone with zero understanding of radiology would say something so naive. But in some sense, they’re correct: Hospitals are happy to cut costs even if it means patient harm, as long as it’s legal.”

* * * 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:20

Iran To Attack Logistical Hubs In Israel, Gulf After Its Tallest Bridge Destroyed

Earlier we reported there are signs that the US and Israel are expanding attacks on Iran civilian infrastructure, after reports emerged Thursday that fresh airstrikes hit a highway bridge connecting Tehran and Karaj, according to Fars News Agency. Several people were injured, and multiple areas of Karaj were also struck. The bridge was actually just constructed, having been inaugurated earlier this year.

Fars identified it as the B1 bridge, dubbed the highest bridge in the Middle East. Tehran also continues to get pummeled hard, amid reports that the prior 24 hours saw the biggest wave of Iranian missiles and cluster munitions on Tel Aviv to date. In response to the bridge attack, Iran state media says the country's armed forces are preparing a retaliatory escalation, with plans to hit Israel's core logistical backbone.

Tehran's strategy focuses on crippling three critical arteries that sustain Israel's war machine, per state media reports reference in Newsquawk.

At the top of the list are key north-south rail chokepoints, among them the Yarkon Bridge - which reportedly handles the vast majority of heavy IDF military transport. There's also the Jezreel tunnel - described as the sole route for moving fuel and ammunition from Port of Haifa inland. 

At the same time, Iran is eyeing the alternative logistics lifeline: the overland corridor running from Jebel Ali through Saudi Arabia and Jordan toward Israel.

* * *
ReadyWise Spring Sale - ends April 10. Stock up.

* * *

With maritime routes under threat, this desert supply chain has become increasingly vital to Israeli military logistics. Also, from Tehran's perspective, these locations highly vulnerable to precision strikes that could disrupt fuel flows and strain Israel's air power.

Additional targets reportedly include high-value infrastructure such as the Port of Haifa itself (Haifa's oil refinery has already been hit a couple times), which remains the country's the central hub of trade and maritime logistics, and the Rehout station, a key distribution point funneling cargo toward active war fronts.

In listing out these target locations Iran is strongly signaling a shift toward systemic disruption aimed at paralyzing logistics and fracturing supply lines - just as Washington and Tel Aviv are doing to the Islamic Republic.

Israelis rush to shelters as sirens blare in Haifa

People in Haifa, Israel, were seen rushing toward an underground metro station to take shelter on Tuesday night (March 31) as sirens were heard across the port city, #warning residents of an incoming Iranian missile attack.… pic.twitter.com/PwBJZzDI3E

— Chaudhary Parvez (@ChaudharyParvez) April 1, 2026

Gulf targets have also been added to the list, after on Thursday the IRGC said it initiated an attack on an Amazon Cloud computing center in Bahrain.

Fars has cited the "destruction of the enemy's scientific and technological centers in the [Gulf] region, with a focus on Dubai.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:05

Iran To Attack Logistical Hubs In Israel, Gulf After Its Tallest Bridge Destroyed

Earlier we reported there are signs that the US and Israel are expanding attacks on Iran civilian infrastructure, after reports emerged Thursday that fresh airstrikes hit a highway bridge connecting Tehran and Karaj, according to Fars News Agency. Several people were injured, and multiple areas of Karaj were also struck. The bridge was actually just constructed, having been inaugurated earlier this year.

Fars identified it as the B1 bridge, dubbed the highest bridge in the Middle East. Tehran also continues to get pummeled hard, amid reports that the prior 24 hours saw the biggest wave of Iranian missiles and cluster munitions on Tel Aviv to date. In response to the bridge attack, Iran state media says the country's armed forces are preparing a retaliatory escalation, with plans to hit Israel's core logistical backbone.

Tehran's strategy focuses on crippling three critical arteries that sustain Israel's war machine, per state media reports reference in Newsquawk.

At the top of the list are key north-south rail chokepoints, among them the Yarkon Bridge - which reportedly handles the vast majority of heavy IDF military transport. There's also the Jezreel tunnel - described as the sole route for moving fuel and ammunition from Port of Haifa inland. 

At the same time, Iran is eyeing the alternative logistics lifeline: the overland corridor running from Jebel Ali through Saudi Arabia and Jordan toward Israel.

* * *
ReadyWise Spring Sale - ends April 10. Stock up.

* * *

With maritime routes under threat, this desert supply chain has become increasingly vital to Israeli military logistics. Also, from Tehran's perspective, these locations highly vulnerable to precision strikes that could disrupt fuel flows and strain Israel's air power.

Additional targets reportedly include high-value infrastructure such as the Port of Haifa itself (Haifa's oil refinery has already been hit a couple times), which remains the country's the central hub of trade and maritime logistics, and the Rehout station, a key distribution point funneling cargo toward active war fronts.

In listing out these target locations Iran is strongly signaling a shift toward systemic disruption aimed at paralyzing logistics and fracturing supply lines - just as Washington and Tel Aviv are doing to the Islamic Republic.

Israelis rush to shelters as sirens blare in Haifa

People in Haifa, Israel, were seen rushing toward an underground metro station to take shelter on Tuesday night (March 31) as sirens were heard across the port city, #warning residents of an incoming Iranian missile attack.… pic.twitter.com/PwBJZzDI3E

— Chaudhary Parvez (@ChaudharyParvez) April 1, 2026

Gulf targets have also been added to the list, after on Thursday the IRGC said it initiated an attack on an Amazon Cloud computing center in Bahrain.

Fars has cited the "destruction of the enemy's scientific and technological centers in the [Gulf] region, with a focus on Dubai.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:05

 

It’s been exactly one year since the Liberation Day Tariffs were announced, implemented, challenged, and ultimately overturned at every level. They served as the foundation of the administration’s main economic policy. What has been the overall impact – economically, geopolitically, and on the markets?

Don’t rely on the mass media for answers – they are afraid of the President and avoid the facts. My job today is to tell you the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Depending on where you look, the impact of the tariffs varies from modest to somewhat embarrassing to completely disastrous. Let’s examine the data to understand this better:

-Policy whipsaw: Perhaps the most damaging economic effect was uncertainty itself. The actual tariffs have changed more than 50 times since Liberation Day: 90-day suspensions up, down, reversals, threats. It made us look silly to our trading partners, but the biggest impact might be on Sentiment. The most striking data point is CFO confidence: it collapsed from 37% to 5% in a single month, in April 2025. This led to a huge impact on CapEx spending and hiring.

-Trade deficit: Trump declared the trade deficit a “job-killing national emergency.” It was nothing of the sort; rich countries buy more from poor countries than poor countries buy from rich countries (it’s obvious if you think about this for a moment). According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. goods deficit increased to an all-time high in 2025.

-Manufacturing Jobs: The promised industrial renaissance failed to arrive. The U.S. manufacturing sector shed 100,000 jobs over the past ~year; the ratio of manufacturing workers to total nonfarm employment fell to its lowest point since 1939. U.S. manufacturers hired 388,000 fewer workers in 2025 than in 2024

-Inflation: Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributed elevated readings to “inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.” Prices did not fall — by August 2025, 9 in 10 goods firms had raised prices, yet 75% of goods firms still reported margin declines. Consumers paid more for goods even as corporate margins shrank.

-Revenue: The Supreme Court ruling makes the tariff revenue figures almost tragicomic: $151B collected, then a $166B refund ordered — meaning the government is effectively net negative on the IEEPA tariff strategy.

“Sell America” trade: In the 12 months since Liberation Day, global investors have been rethinking American exceptionalism. In 2025, U.S. equities underperformed global bourses; Treasuries took a hit; The dollar fell 9%. These trades became known as the “Sell America” trade.

-Geopolitical Impact: This is where I fear structural and maybe even permanent effects. Countries forged new trade pacts while trying to avoid U.S. trade agreements. The global trading system has been turned upside down in ways that may be irreversible.

The main beneficiary of this is China. They found new buyers to re-route its exports and ended 2025 with a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus. The tariffs were explicitly designed to pressure Beijing, and yet China ended 2025 with its largest trade surplus EVER, mostly achieved by simply rerouting exports.

 

The bottom line:  None of the Trump administration’s stated goals — shrinking the trade deficit, reviving manufacturing, lowering prices, paying down the debt — were met. Many of the targets, such as lowering prices and reducing the deficit, worsened.

The one-off deals and commitments to invest billions in the U.S.? Good luck trying to enforce those, based upon a policy that the highest court in the land declared as blatantly unconstitutional…

 

 

Previously:
Winners  of SCOTUS Decision Striking Down Tariffs (February 20, 2026)

Part II: IEEPA Tariff Ruling’s Losers (February 23, 2026)

IEEPA Tariffs Update (January 27, 2026)

It’s Tariff Week! * (January 12, 2026)

Tariffs Likely To Be Overturned (November 5, 2025)

Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”? (July 31, 2025)

The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Are Tariffs a New US VAT Tax? (March 31, 2025)

MiB: Special Edition: Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 3, 2025)

Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 8, 2025)

Which States Could Suffer the Most From Trade War Tariffs? (September 16, 2019)

 

The post Happy Liberation Day 1-Year Anniversary! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump Puts State Farm, Other Insurers On Notice Over Treatment Of California Wildfire Victims

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on March 31 told State Farm and other insurers to “get their act together” after meeting with California politicians and hearing about the difficulties facing the victims of last year’s wildfires.

A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area of Los Angeles County, Calif., on Jan. 8, 2025. Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images

Two areas outside Los Angeles were devastated by wildfires in January 2025. In the Palisades fire, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reported that 6,831 structures were lost, 973 were damaged, and 12 people died.

When combined with the nearby Eaton fire, which ignited in Altadena, north of Los Angeles, on Jan. 7, 2025, and claimed 18 lives, the two fires destroyed more than 12,000 structures.

“I have just met with various Political Representatives of the tragedy that took place in California concerning the burning of thousands of once beautiful homes,” Trump wrote in a March 31 post on Truth Social.

“It was brought to my attention that the Insurance Companies, in particular, State Farm, have been absolutely horrible to people that have been paying them large Premiums for years, only to find that when tragedy struck, these horrendous Companies were not there to help!”

Trump said he had asked Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin to give him a list of the insurance companies that acted “swiftly, courageously, and bravely” and those that were “particularly bad.”

The California Department of Insurance said in a June 2025 statement that Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara had launched a formal investigation into State Farm’s handling of thousands of insurance claims.

“Some troubling patterns that my staff will investigate include the frequent reassignment of multiple adjusters with little continuity in communication, inconsistent management of similar claims, and inadequate record-keeping or information-sharing among claims teams,” Lara said at the time. “These issues create unnecessary stress, prolong recovery, and erode trust. I urge any wildfire survivor facing delayed payments, claim disputes, multiple adjusters, smoke damage issues, or any other problems to file a formal complaint with my Department.”

On Nov. 13, 2025, Los Angeles County said that it had launched an investigation into State Farm’s handling of insurance claims filed by policyholders affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires, focused on potential violations of California’s Unfair Competition Law.

A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire as it burns homes on the Pacific Coast Highway during a powerful windstorm in Los Angeles on Jan. 8, 2025. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

“The investigation ... follows growing complaints from residents about delays, underpayments, and denials of legitimate wildfire claims,” the office of the county counsel said in a statement at the time.

“The County has heard loud and clear from wildfire survivors that State Farm’s delays are standing in the way of rebuilding,“ Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors Chair Kathryn Barger said. ”Fair and timely insurance payments aren’t a privilege; they’re a right. State Farm must act quickly so survivors can rebuild their homes and their lives.”

In a Sept. 30, 2025, statement about the California fires, State Farm said it had served customers with more than 13,500 claims and issued $5.7 billion in payments “to families whose homes, cars, and property were damaged or destroyed.”

“Because many claims, repairs, and rebuilds are still underway, we expect total payments could reach $7 billion,” State Farm said. “Our leadership position in the California homeowners insurance marketplace means State Farm General Insurance Company—the State Farm company that provides homeowners insurance in California—insured more people impacted by this disaster than anyone else.”

The Epoch Times reached out to State Farm, and they referred us to the above statement.

Allan Stein contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 11:45

Trump Puts State Farm, Other Insurers On Notice Over Treatment Of California Wildfire Victims

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on March 31 told State Farm and other insurers to “get their act together” after meeting with California politicians and hearing about the difficulties facing the victims of last year’s wildfires.

A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area of Los Angeles County, Calif., on Jan. 8, 2025. Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images

Two areas outside Los Angeles were devastated by wildfires in January 2025. In the Palisades fire, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reported that 6,831 structures were lost, 973 were damaged, and 12 people died.

When combined with the nearby Eaton fire, which ignited in Altadena, north of Los Angeles, on Jan. 7, 2025, and claimed 18 lives, the two fires destroyed more than 12,000 structures.

“I have just met with various Political Representatives of the tragedy that took place in California concerning the burning of thousands of once beautiful homes,” Trump wrote in a March 31 post on Truth Social.

“It was brought to my attention that the Insurance Companies, in particular, State Farm, have been absolutely horrible to people that have been paying them large Premiums for years, only to find that when tragedy struck, these horrendous Companies were not there to help!”

Trump said he had asked Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin to give him a list of the insurance companies that acted “swiftly, courageously, and bravely” and those that were “particularly bad.”

The California Department of Insurance said in a June 2025 statement that Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara had launched a formal investigation into State Farm’s handling of thousands of insurance claims.

“Some troubling patterns that my staff will investigate include the frequent reassignment of multiple adjusters with little continuity in communication, inconsistent management of similar claims, and inadequate record-keeping or information-sharing among claims teams,” Lara said at the time. “These issues create unnecessary stress, prolong recovery, and erode trust. I urge any wildfire survivor facing delayed payments, claim disputes, multiple adjusters, smoke damage issues, or any other problems to file a formal complaint with my Department.”

On Nov. 13, 2025, Los Angeles County said that it had launched an investigation into State Farm’s handling of insurance claims filed by policyholders affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires, focused on potential violations of California’s Unfair Competition Law.

A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire as it burns homes on the Pacific Coast Highway during a powerful windstorm in Los Angeles on Jan. 8, 2025. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

“The investigation ... follows growing complaints from residents about delays, underpayments, and denials of legitimate wildfire claims,” the office of the county counsel said in a statement at the time.

“The County has heard loud and clear from wildfire survivors that State Farm’s delays are standing in the way of rebuilding,“ Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors Chair Kathryn Barger said. ”Fair and timely insurance payments aren’t a privilege; they’re a right. State Farm must act quickly so survivors can rebuild their homes and their lives.”

In a Sept. 30, 2025, statement about the California fires, State Farm said it had served customers with more than 13,500 claims and issued $5.7 billion in payments “to families whose homes, cars, and property were damaged or destroyed.”

“Because many claims, repairs, and rebuilds are still underway, we expect total payments could reach $7 billion,” State Farm said. “Our leadership position in the California homeowners insurance marketplace means State Farm General Insurance Company—the State Farm company that provides homeowners insurance in California—insured more people impacted by this disaster than anyone else.”

The Epoch Times reached out to State Farm, and they referred us to the above statement.

Allan Stein contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 11:45

Gulf Energy Shock Spreads To Global Plastics As War Sparks Force Majeure Wave

Building on our earlier "Global Demand Destruction" note, which mapped how the Gulf energy shock is spreading globally and the immediate effects of rationing, price controls, and fuel shortages, another second-order disruption is quickly emerging: supply chain disruptions in critical plastic feedstocks.

Plastics are core to the modern economy, and a troubling new Bloomberg report indicates that several producers of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) have declared force majeure, as tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain heavily disrupted.

For context, MEG and PTA are the two primary feedstocks used to produce polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyester fibers. These petrochemicals are critical to the production of everyday consumer goods that make life in the developed world convenient, including plastic bottles, food packaging, clothing, home furnishings, and a wide range of consumer and industrial goods.

More specifically, MEG is used in the production of polyester yarn, polyester staple fiber, PET resin, and PET film. It also plays a critical role in antifreeze, coolants, adhesives, coatings, and enamels.

In other words, MEG and PTA are foundational petrochemical building blocks for the modern economy. Any sustained disruption to these flows would be detrimental to the global economy.

Which brings us to the supply alarm bells already beginning to ring, courtesy of Bloomberg:

1. Oriental Union Chemical Corp. warned US customers it would temporarily suspend MEG shipments for early March. The suspensions would persist until conditions stabilize, the Taipei-based company wrote in a customer letter. After March 11, shipments to customers continued as normal, with monthly pricing adjusted to reflect higher crude costs: Spokesperson Daniel Yu Ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol sales are mainly for customers on long-term contracts, he added. As disruptions mount across the industry, Taiwan has moved to boost capacity for ethylene output, according to a report by the semi-official Central News Agency.

2. Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co. declared force majeure "for affected contracts/orders/delivery obligations," according to a letter sent to US customers. The Chinese maker of PET and PTA flagged disruptions stemming from the Hormuz shutdown.

3. Indorama Ventures said in an early-March letter from its US and Canada regional sales team that it would raise prices on PET resin by 10 cents a pound across all businesses, citing higher feedstock costs and supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. The company said in a letter sent the following week that it would add an additional temporary 5-cent war surcharge. The company has also declared forces majeures on shipments from two PET units in Europe, S&P Global's Chemweek reported.

4. Saudi Basic Industries Corp. last week told customers it would invoke force majeure for MEG and diethylene glycol. The duration of the disruptions "cannot be reasonably determined given the evolving nature of the circumstances," the company said, citing "unforeseen supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz."

The market response has already seen a surge in US spot prices for ethylene, methanol, and polymer-grade propylene. This will likely translate into higher prices for everyday consumer goods, including trash bags, cleaning products, tires, food containers, and more.

Last week, Dow CEO Jim Fitterling warned that Gulf petrochemical flows could take upwards of nine months to normalize if the Hormuz chokepoint were to open up in the near term.

"Snacks, frozen foods and fresh protein products will be impacted first," EGC Consulting CEO Jonathan Quinn warned, adding, "The potato chip bag — that alone is going to see an increase of a nickel, a dime. Everything you buy is going to be impacted."

Let's remind readers that China is the world's largest plastics consumer and producer, as per OECD data. Any supply disruption would ripple through the industrial base of the world's second-largest economy.

Separately, JPMorgan analysts mapped out how the energy shockwave from the Iran war spreads across the world, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US - primarily California.

Source

President Trump's speech on Wednesday night sparked a global risk-off move because, as Goldman analyst Peter Bartlett explained, the president "was more escalatory than not." This suggests the global energy shock is likely to worsen (unless Iran capitulates) in the weeks ahead, with plastics emerging as the next major problem facing the global economy.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 11:30

April Fools And The Last Supper

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Wednesday saw the unusual occurrence of three Anglosphere heads of government delivering televised addresses to their respective nations within 24 hours of each other. When news broke that Australia’s PM Albanese, Britain’s PM Starmer and US President Trump would all be interrupting regular programming to speak to their people, reactions ranged from jubilant speculation that the war is about to end all the way through to nervousness that Operation Iranian Freedom was about to be announced.

Judging by the price action in markets, the latter was certainly seen as the less likely of the two as stocks rose sharply across Asia, EMEA and the Americas, while Brent crude briefly dipped below the $100/bbl mark. Singapore gasoil spot prices fell by 22.7% - it’s largest daily move (up or down) of the war so far.

Those moves are now revealed as an April Fool’s rally as Donald Trump’s address to the nation has sent oil bid, bond yields surging, high-beta FX lower and early rallies in Asian stocks have now turned deeply negative. Trump declined to announce that the USA is packing up and going home, instead declaring that “we are going to finish the job.” He said that the US owed it to 13 soldiers who have died in the conflict to complete the mission by ensuring that Iran would not have the capability to obtain a nuclear weapon, that it would no longer have the ability to project power beyond its borders, and by severely degrading its drone and missile stocks and the industrial base used to produce those conventional weapons.

Trump says there is still time for Iran to make a deal to end the war but that the US is willing to leave without a deal and will eliminate key targets on their way out, pointing specifically to Iran’s electricity plants. He reiterated his previously expressed timeline of 2-3 weeks to conclude operations in Iran, but markets will be nervous about that as those timelines have a tendency to stretch.

Critically, Trump also seemed to confirm rumors that the US is willing to leave without first securing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, instead leaving that task to other countries (though he says the US will help) on the justification that they are far more reliant on Persian Gulf oil than the US is. Trump said that the Strait will ultimately re-open naturally when the war concludes as Iran will rely on oil sales to rebuild, but in the meantime he advises other countries to buy their oil and gas from the United States.

The market optimism of the last 24 hours was always likely to be misplaced. The subtext of Trump’s remarks is that NATO and the GCC states must get involved in the war to re-open the Strait, or else suffer the consequences of US withdrawal for the world economy. Some – like the UAE – have expressed willingness, but most have not. If nobody steps up the war may grind on for longer (bad), escalate (worse), or the US may simply leave with Hormuz unresolved (worst). While the latter is a clear and present danger for world hydrocarbon markets and civilisation in general, it would also be a heavy blow for US hegemony and reserve currency status as American tactical victories sum to strategic defeat and Iran continues to operate the Strait as a toll road settled in CNY.

Hours before Trump’s address, Australian viewers were left somewhat nonplussed by their Prime Minister’s primetime appearance. Given that Prime Ministerial addresses to the nation are incredibly rare, Australians were perhaps bracing for some grave Menzian announcement (“My fellow Australians. It is my melancholy duty to inform you...”) but were instead wished a happy Easter holiday period, warned that the months ahead may be hard and told to conserve fuel by taking public transport and resisting the urge to stockpile. Some commentators have cheekily observed that this one could have been an email, but in the aftermath of Trump’s address Albanese’s well wishes for the Easter holidays are feeling a bit more like the last supper as speculation mounts that Australia could be headed for fuel rationing as early as next week.

Keir Starmer struck a slightly different tone to his antipodean counterpart by focusing more directly on Britain’s efforts to re-establish freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Starmer noted that he had convened captains of industry from the shipping, finance and insurance sectors earlier in the week at Downing Street, and that they had told him the issue in Hormuz is not one of insurance, but of safety and security of passage. Starmer says that foreign ministers of 35 nations will meet later this week to explore diplomatic and political avenues to end the war and re-open the Strait, to be followed by a meeting of military leaders.

Starmer was at pains to reiterate his message that this was not Britain’s war. The PM is currently between a rock and a hard place because involvement in the war upsets anti-war constituencies at home and draws the ire of the Iranian regime, while not becoming involved draws the ire of the US President. It is becoming very difficult to straddle these two imperatives as Trump tells NATO allies “I broke it, you bought it.”

As a consequence of being faced with only bad choices, Britain has had a muddled approach of refusing US access to bases and then granting it, delaying deployment of HMS Dragon to the Eastern Mediterranean and then deploying it, and refusing requests to assist with naval escorts in the Strait - but is surely now forced to consider it. Combining this indecision with Spanish, French and Italian refusals to allow US access to bases, and suggestions that the war runs contrary to international law, the European relationship with the USA suddenly looks more strained than ever.

This has severe implications for NATO, which Keir Starmer noted that Britain remains committed to, but Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have recently said the US may consider withdrawing from. This in turn has implications for the flow of US aid to Ukraine, where the United States may tell the EU “your problem now”, and also for the status of Greenland. Denmark and the EU were able to defuse Trump’s assertive stance on controlling Greenland last year by providing assurances that the US would have access to bases as it needs, but now that it has been refused access to bases in Europe for the Iran war, everything is back on the table.

There is a reshuffling of strategic dependencies now occurring in real time. Starmer used his address to tell his people that Brexit had done deep damage to the British economy, and that Britain now had to draw closer to the EU to strengthen its economic and security relationships in its immediate geography. The subtext here is that Britain will pivot to the EU from the US, which puts the ‘Special Relationship’ on life support alongside NATO.

This has implications elsewhere, especially in Australia where plans to acquire nuclear-propelled submarines rely on cooperation with and between Britain and the United States. As many Australian defence commentators have argued in the recent past, there is no Plan B if AUKUS falls apart, and Australia is already faced with a submarine capability gap as it’s 1990s-era Collins class submarines are looking very long in the tooth.

Given its own geography, and the fact that it is so far down the AUKUS road, Australia may have no choice but to stick by the USA while other allies coalesce around Europe or chase Mark Carney’s ‘variable geometry’ system of alliances down the path of incongruent current accounts. Might we see an Australian Hobart class in the vanguard to answer Trump’s call to re-open the Strait?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 11:15

The post Lesson from the Iran War #42,765: Making Enemies Makes Us Poorer appeared first on CEPR.

Tesla Delivers 358,023 Vehicles In Q1, Missing Wall Street Expectations For Second Consecutive Quarter

Tesla reported a disappointing first quarter, delivering 358,023 vehicles worldwide, falling short of Wall Street expectations of about 372,000, according to Bloomberg-compiled estimates and the company’s own release.

The miss marks Tesla’s second consecutive quarter below forecasts, underscoring continued pressure on its core automotive business as it navigates slowing electric-vehicle demand and a more competitive global market.

Despite the shortfall, deliveries were still up 6.3% year over year, benefiting from an easier comparison period when production of the Model Y was temporarily paused across multiple factories and the company faced consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk. Even so, the results highlight the growing challenges Tesla faces in sustaining growth in its main revenue-generating segment, even as investor focus has increasingly shifted toward its longer-term bets on artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics.

As Bloomberg noted this week, a slower pace of growth may persist. Demand for EVs is cooling globally, US buyers no longer benefit from federal tax credits, and Tesla’s lineup is narrowing as Models S and X are phased out, all while competition intensifies.

“If they can show that there’s stability in the numbers without the tax credit — and they can, at least with the delivery number — I think that that would be a win,” said Gene Munster.

Notably, just days before reporting, Tesla had circulated a company-compiled consensus estimate suggesting deliveries of around 365,645 vehicles for the quarter.

That figure was based on forecasts from a wide range of sell-side firms, including Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Mizuho, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPMorgan, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

At the time, Tesla emphasized that it does not endorse analysts’ projections, noting that the figures represent aggregated estimates rather than company guidance, with only prior quarters reflecting actual reported results.

Elon Musk said in a post on X on Wednesday that orders for the Model S and Model X have effectively ended, though some remaining inventory is still available. He added that there will be an official event to mark the close of the era, noting that he has a deep appreciation for those vehicles.

 “We will have an official ceremony to mark the ending of an era. I love those cars,” Elon Musk said at the time. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 09:35

Globalstar Soars On Amazon Buyout Report Amid Satellite Constellation Race

Globalstar shares surged 12% in premarket trading in New York...

...marking their biggest jump in nearly five months, after the Financial Times reported overnight that Amazon is in talks to acquire the satellite operator, a move that would certainly intensify the race to build satellite constellations. 

The FT cited people familiar with the Amazon-Globalstar talks and said both sides are still negotiating over "some of the complexities," including the fact that Apple owns a 20% stake in the satellite communications company, which operates 24 satellites in low Earth orbit, arranged in a Walker-24 configuration, and sells services for emergency messaging, asset tracking, remote voice/data links, and IoT connectivity in places where cell coverage is weak or nonexistent.

Globalstar powers Apple's emergency satellite feature on iPhones, but that system is far more limited than the high-speed broadband network offered by SpaceX's Starlink.

Amazon has deployed around 200 internet satellites into orbit as part of its Leo program, formerly called Project Kuiper. This is dwarfed by the more than 10,000 active satellites operated by Starlink, which provides high-speed internet to more than 10 million customers worldwide.

The rationale for Amazon buying Globalstar's older, higher-orbit satellite constellation was not immediately explained in the FT report or by its sources familiar with the deal talks. 

But our view is that a potential buyout of Globalstar could give Amazon a faster path to more infrastructure, customers, and operational know-how to scale its Leo program and become a real competitor to Starlink, which is years ahead of any competition and even nation-states. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 09:15

Democrats Ask Judge To Block Parts Of Trump's Election Order

Authored by Kimberley Hayek and Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Democrats asked a federal judge Wednesday to block parts of President Donald Trump’s executive order on federal elections.

The lawsuit challenges Trump’s directive, signed a day earlier, that will create a list of eligible voters in every state and prohibit the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) from sending absentee ballots to those not included on the list. The order, titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” directs the Department of Homeland Security and Social Security Administration to conduct voter information collection.

Trump said the executive order was needed because “the cheating on mail-in voting is legendary. It’s horrible what has been going on.”

“The right to vote in Federal elections is reserved exclusively for citizens of the United States under the Constitution and Federal law,” the order reads. “The Federal Government has an unavoidable duty under Article II of the Constitution of the United States to enforce Federal law, which includes preventing violations of Federal criminal law and maintaining public confidence in election outcomes.”

Trump signed the order after Congress recently failed to pass the SAVE America Act, which would have imposed voter ID and election integrity requirements. Administration officials described the order as a necessary step to restore public confidence ahead of the midterm elections in November.

White House staff secretary Will Scharf said the provisions in the order would prevent past problems from being repeated.

“We believe, combined, the measures in this order will help secure elections in the future and ensure the many abuses of our elections in the past are not repeated in future elections,” Scharf said.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick echoed the goal.

“The fundamentals of our democracy are built on voter integrity,” he said during a signing ceremony.

The order reiterates that only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote by mail, and that to enforce the relevant federal statutes, lists of voters are to be verified by the Department of Homeland Security in coordination with the Social Security Administration, “consistent with applicable law, including but not limited to the Privacy Act of 1974.”

The order directs USPS to send ballots only to verified individuals included in the lists, with unique bar codes applied to each envelope—one per voter—to facilitate tracking and audits.

The U.S. attorney general and the heads of various executive departments and agencies were directed to take steps to deter and address noncompliance with federal law by taking steps such as withholding federal funds from noncompliant state and local governments. Evidence that state or local election officials or other individuals of entities have violated existing federal laws is to be referred to the Department of Justice for investigation, the order said.

The Democratic Party campaign organizations that filed the lawsuit contend the order exceeds presidential authority and disrupts state election processes. They seek an immediate injunction to halt enforcement of parts of the order.

The legal complaint states that Trump “has tried again and again to rewrite election rules for his own perceived partisan advantage,” and that he wants to ban mail voting, “a favorite scapegoat for his 2020 electoral defeat,” and impose other restrictions on voting.

The executive order “dramatically restricts the ability of Americans to vote by mail, impinging on traditional state authority,” largely by requiring the USPS “to take actions unrelated to the agency’s statutory mandate that run roughshod over established protections for voters who rely on the mail to exercise their fundamental right to vote.”

This instruction violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Privacy Act, which require agencies to follow existing law and forbid the use of federal records unless previously authorized under federal law, the complaint says.

The order would unlawfully take steps to create a “national citizenship registry” and require that “state citizenship lists” be shared with states within 60 days of each federal election, the complaint says.

The plaintiffs in this case—the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Governors Association, and the Democratic leaders of the U.S. House and Senate—urged the U.S. District Court in the nation’s capital to act quickly because federal elections are soon approaching.

The plaintiffs asked the court to block the sections of the executive order that mandate the creation of state citizenship lists and require the USPS to establish uniform standards for mail-in or absentee ballots. They also asked the court to block the parts of the order requiring the Department of Homeland Security, the Social Security Administration, and the USPS to coordinate with the Department of Commerce.

Democratic leaders reacted sharply to the executive order. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) called the order “a blatant, unconstitutional abuse of power.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, vowed to sue over the order.

“The President wants to limit which Americans can participate in our democracy,” Newsom’s press office wrote on Tuesday on X. “California will see him in court.”

When signing the order, Trump said he anticipated legal challenges.

“I don’t know how it could be challenged. It could probably be challenged if you find a rogue judge,” he said. “We will appeal if it is, but I don’t see how anyone else could challenge it.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 08:46

'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Continues As Job Cuts Tumble, Claims Near Record Lows

U.S.-based employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March, up 25% from 48,307 cuts announced in February.

It is down 78% from the 275,240 cuts announced during the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“Removing the wave of federal layoffs announced in February and March of last year, job cut announcements in 2026 are closely following the pattern of 2025. Last year it was Government, Retail, and Technology. This year, it’s Technology, Transportation, and Healthcare,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

And affirming this relatively low job cuts level, the number of American filing for jobless benefits for the first time tumbled back to just 202k (from 211k) continuing to hover near record lows...

Michigan and Georgia saw the biggest declines in initial jobless claims while Texas and Oregon saw the biggest increases...

At the sector level, Technology dominated, announcing 18,720 job cuts in March for a total of 52,050 in 2026. That is an increase of 40% from the 37,097 cuts in this sector announced in the same period last year. It is the highest year-to-date total for the sector since 2023 when 102,391 Technology cuts were recorded.

More layoffs are likely to come from Technology companies in 2026. Last month’s total was made up primarily on a workforce reduction at Dell Inc., according to their latest annual filing. Oracle reportedly began layoffs late last month, though the company has not released a total figure. Meta, meanwhile, is undergoing layoffs in its Reality Labs division as it focuses on pivoting to artificial intelligence.

“Companies are shifting budgets toward AI investments at the expense of jobs. The actual replacing of roles can be seen in Technology companies, where AI can replace coding functions. Other industries are testing the limits of this new technology, and while it can’t replace jobs completely, it is costing jobs,” said Challenger.

“One thing that is clear is that AI is changing work and the workforce. Workers will need to be more strategic as they lead AI-powered agents that handle increasingly complex tasks. Human workers will need strong decision making and judgment skills in the age of AI,” he added.

Continuing jobless claims ticked up modestly from 1.816mm to 1.841mm Americans, but remains well below the 1.9mm Maginot Line...

The 'no hire, no fire' economy continues to chug along with yesterday's Manufacturing PMIs and Retail Sales signaling the economic pain so many expected has been delayed... for now.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 08:35

Futures, Bonds Tumble, Oil Soars After Trump Dashes Hopes For Early End To Iran War

Global risk assets, including US equity futures and global markets, as well as Treasuries and precious metals, tumbled as oil soared with Brent hitting $110 this morning after Trump's late Wednesday speech refused to pivot and dashed hopes that the Hormuz Strait would reopen soon and the war in the Middle East is nearing a swift resolution. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures dropped 1.7%, reversing yesterday's short squeeze as investors refuse to add to risk positions ahead of the long weekend when many speculate a ground invasion of Iran may begin. Nasdaq 100 contracts slumped 2% amid a premarket selloff in big tech stocks and chipmakers. Tech is getting hit hard with Mag7 and Semis lagging while Cyclicals ex-Energy are underperforming Defensives with both Staples and Healthcare down in absolute terms pointing to broad-based de-risking into the holiday weekend. Energy should have a good day as investors re-gross in the sector and Integrateds are trading up ~3% pre-mkt. Brent soared 8.2% to more than $109 a barrel after Trump pledged more aggressive action against Iran and offered no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. European diesel futures hit $200 a barrel. Bonds tumbled as expectations that oil prices will stay higher for longer prompted traders to initiate fresh bets on tighter monetary policy. The dollar advance the most in a week while gold snapped a four-day streak of gains. US economic data calendar includes March Challenger job cuts (7:30am New York time), February trade balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:15am) and Bowman (12:45pm)

In premarket trading,  Mag 7 stocks are all sharply lower (Nvidia -2.7%, Tesla -2.4%, Meta -2.4%, Alphabet -2.3%, Amazon -2.2%, Microsoft -1.3%, Apple -1%

• Oil and gas companies rebound after Trump’s prime-time address. Movers include Chevron (CVX) +2.9% and Exxon (XOM) +3.2%.
• Travel, mining and semiconductor stocks fall as the conflict and higher energy prices weigh on investor sentiment. Among movers: United Airlines (UAL) -4%, Newmont (NEM) -4.9%.
• Globalstar (GSAT) rises 15% after a Financial Times report that Amazon.com Inc. is in talks to acquire the satellite provider.
• Immunovant (IMVT) falls 7% after the drug developer said two late-stage studies of its experimental treatment for thyroid eye disease failed to meet their main goals.
• Penguin Solutions (PENG) rises 9% after the semiconductor device company raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.
• Wingstop (WING) rises 1% as Piper Sandler and Raymond James upgrade the restaurant operator’s stock following a steep selloff.

In other corporate news, Amazon is said to be in talks to acquire satellite provider Globalstar, according to the FT, in a potential deal to bolster Amazon’s effort to build out its low-orbit satellite network to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink. In AI, Alibaba released its third proprietary AI model, Qwen3.6-Plus, in as many days to focus on profiting off its flagship AI services. 

Global risk sentiment was crushed after Trump talked again about leaving Iran quickly, but warned of escalation as the US continues to amass military assets in the Middle East. Understandably, global headlines continue to be dominated by the Middle East conflict, geopolitics, oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Australia is weighing using powers amid a possible gas shortfall, oil inventory stockpiles are dropping and the UAE has called on the UN to approve measures, including force, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

“The speech didn’t bring forward an off-ramp, it pushed the timeline out and reintroduced escalation,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management. While it is not a full big bear event, “the direction of travel has clearly worsened, and that’s what markets are reacting to."

The US stock market has settled into a predictable weekly pattern since the Middle East war began. It starts the week on a strong note, drifts sideways toward the middle of the week and then collapses every Thursday and Friday, reflecting likely de-risking into a “trading blackout with unknowable risks.”  

“This market just isn’t manageable,” said Laurent Lamagnere, deputy chief executive officer at Alphavalue in Paris. “We’re really concerned about second-round effects, not only on oil prices but also on oil supply, for example, airlines trimming destinations with harsh consequences for tourism.”

While markets are shut Friday, key economic data is still scheduled to be released. Bloomberg Economics expect March nonfarm payrolls rose 80k, reflecting a rebound in strike-affected payrolls, sluggish private-sector hiring and a continued drag from federal payrolls. Recent changes to the BLS’ birth-death model of business formations may continue to inject volatility into the monthly figures. As a net exporter of light, sweet crude, geopolitical risk is less concerning to US-levered energy operators relative to international peers and WTI oil-price inflation will likely be transitory, according to Bloomberg economists. 

Elsewhere, the Trump administration is said to be close to announcing tariffs on drugmakers that haven’t struck deals guaranteeing low prices in the US. The US is set to roll out tiered tariffs on steel and aluminum products to simplify a process that has dogged American companies for months.

A KKR private credit fund for retail investors curbed redemptions after receiving an increase in such requests, according to a shareholder letter. Private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, with buyout firms selling deals valued at about $103 billion in the first quarter, roughly 36% lower than the same period a year ago. The SEC and Elon Musk said they are heading toward a trial over the regulator’s allegations that the billionaire cheated Twitter investors before his 2022 buyout.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is down 1.2% with technology and mining stocks leading the decliners, while energy and food and beverage shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• European oil stocks gain after President Donald Trump dented hopes of a swift end to the war in Iran, sending crude prices higher. BP and Galp also benefited from analyst upgrades. Mining shares underperformed as metals prices eased
• SSE shares gain as much as 0.7% after the utility firm upgraded the lower end of its guidance range for adjusted earnings per share this year
• Fortum gains as much as 4% after Citi upgrades the Finnish utility to neutral and says its 2026 earnings may positively surprise the market on the back of higher spot power prices
• Amplifon falls as much as 4% after the stock was downgraded to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas, which called the Italian company’s plan to acquire GN Store Nord’s hearing-aid business a “discordant deal”
• Mutares shares fell as much as 13%, the most in four months, on Germany’s Xetra exchange after the private equity firm sold shares via a private placement

Asian stocks fell after President Donald Trump’s threat to launch fresh attacks on Iran disappointed investors who were hoping for clearer signs of an end to the war. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.6%, reversing small gains prior to Trump’s comments. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan led losses in the region. The Philippines market was closed for a holiday.  The sudden downturn in sentiment came after Trump said that military operations could escalate over the next two to three weeks. Although he said the war in Iran was “very close” to completion, the US would hit electric plants in the country if no deal was reached, dampening hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.5%. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 1% against the greenback. The pound and Aussie dollar also underperform. Precious metals sink with spot silver down over 5%. Bitcoin falls 2.6%.

In rates, Treasury futures are off session lows with yields higher by 4bp to 6bp across the curve. Most losses occurred during Asia session following Trump’s prime-time address pledging more aggressive action against Iran and lacking a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 10-year Treasury yield near 4.36% is about 4bp cheaper on the day after peaking at 4.384%. Curve spreads remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s close. European government bonds fall as traders boost bets on rate hikes by the Bank of England and European Central Bank this year. UK and German 10-year yields rise 7 bps and 4 bps respectively. Gilts underperform, with 2-year yields are cheaper by around 10bp on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Three offerings were priced Wednesday, with borrowers paying about 4bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.1 times oversubscribed. Dealers project about $115b of April supply vs about $105b a year earlier and about half of March’s $236.5b volume

In commodities, energy prices jump with Brent crude futures for June up around 7% and above $108 a barrel as investors weigh prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas futures climb 4.5% while European diesel futures hit $200 a barrel.

US economic data calendar includes March Challenger job cuts (7:30am New York time), February trade balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:15am) and Bowman (12:45pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -1.6%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -2.0%,
• Russell 2000 mini -2.0%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1%,
• DAX -1.6%,
• CAC 40 -0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +5 basis points at 4.37%
• VIX +2 points at 26.51
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1217.6,
• euro -0.6% at $1.1524
• WTI crude +7.2% at $107.31/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Oil rose after President Trump’s prime-time address disappointed investors hoping for a quick end to the Iran war. In an address late Wednesday, Trump said he was still seeking a diplomatic agreement to end the conflict and that U.S. military aims would be completed “very shortly.” But he also vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and pummel the country “back to the Stone Ages.” WSJ
• Trump rattled markets and heightened political tensions with an address that offered no clear timeline for ending the Iran war, while pledging more aggressive action over the next two to three weeks. Iran and Israel continued to trade strikes and the US president renewed threats against Iranian electric plants. BBG
• The Trump administration is preparing to impose tariffs of 100% on certain medicines as it pushes drugmakers to manufacture more in the US. The levies – set to be announced as soon as Thursday – would be applied to companies that have not struck deals with the White House. FT
• Congressional Democrats sued to block Trump’s executive order that would prohibit mail-in voting for anyone not on a pre-approved list compiled by the DHS. BBG              
• China’s central bank withdrew cash from its financial system in March for the first time in a year, amid signs of an economic rebound. BBG
• Former BOJ chief economist Toshitaka Sekine said the central bank may raise rates as soon as April, due to the risk of supply shocks. BBG
• Swiss inflation accelerated 0.3% in March, the quickest pace in a year, as the energy supply crunch stoked the cost of heating oil. BBG
• Global private equity sales have fallen by 36% this year, as developments in AI and the war in Iran heap pressure on a subdued exit market. FT
• The US is set to outline a tiered regime for steel and aluminum, maintaining 50% duties on many products but applying lower rates to others. BBG
• Oil’s near-term outlook turned more bullish after Trump’s speech, with June futures rising more than $8.5 a barrel above July as Hormuz disruptions cut about 11 million b/d. Traders expect continued supply strain and higher prices. BBG
• Canadian PM said he spoke with US President Trump this evening to discuss Artemis II and the Middle East conflict.
• US President Trump discussed firing Attorney General Pam Bondi and replacing Bondi with EPA Chief Zeldin, although he has not yet made a decision whether to fire Bondi, according to NYT.
• US Senate may vote on DHS funding bill on Thursday, while the bill would fund DHS without ICE and CBP, according to NBC.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks failed to sustain initial gains after US President Trump's primetime address disappointed those hoping for an immediate de-escalation in the Iran conflict, in which he said they will hit Iran very hard over the next 2-3 weeks and will 'bring Iran back to the stone age, where they belong', while he also threatened to hit Iran's electric plants if there is no deal and could hit their oil. ASX 200 reversed early gains as Trump's remarks soured the broad risk sentiment, and with the declines led by weakness in the tech, mining, materials and resources industries, while the latest trade data from Australia had very little influence on price action. Nikkei 225 wiped out the initial spoils and slumped beneath the 53,000 level as US President Trump's remarks triggered a broad risk-off mood and lifted oil prices. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued amid notable weakness in the Hong Kong-listed blue chip tech stocks, and with the mainland also dampened following another paltry liquidity operation by the PBoC.

Top Asian News

• South Korean Vice Finance Minister said they are closely monitoring FX market as speculative trading is being seen; to respond sternly to excessive herd-like behaviour FX markets.
• Magnitude 7.8 earthquake strikes 119km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia, according to the USGS.
• EMSC announces a tsunami alert after earthquake in Indonesia region.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.1%) began the session with decent losses after US President Trump's nationwide address reignited tensions. He said that the mission in Iran will be finished very fast and the US will hit Iran very hard over the next 2–3 weeks, while warning of strikes on electric plants if there is no deal and could also target its oil facilities. Since the start of cash trade, losses have pared back slightly but indices are holding around the -1% mark. European sectors are broadly in the red. Energy is the outperformer while Food, Beverage and Tobacco follow closely behind. Technology sits at the bottom of the pile, after performing well over the past 3 sessions, while Basic Resources also suffers as precious metals slip.

Top European News

• Swiss Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) Y/Y 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.1%, Low. 0.1%, High. 1.0%); Core 0.4% (prev. 0.4%).
• Swiss Inflation Rate MoM (Mar) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%, Low. 0.2%, High. 0.9%).

FX

• DXY is stronger this morning, with traders flocking back to the USD after US President Trump’s address dampened hopes of de-escalation with Iran. Overnight, he stated that he will hit Iran very hard over the next two to three weeks, adding that the US could also target Iran’s oil facilities. Trump's rhetoric has seemingly shifted from a focus on the timeline for wind-down to a more aggressive military escalation within that same window. DXY jumped back above the 100 mark, to currently trade at the upper end of a 99.44-100.17 range; recent levels above this include 100.64 (high from 31 Mar).
• Focus for today remains on any geopolitical updates, but that aside, there are a few important domestic data points to keep an eye on. Weekly initial jobless claims (212k expected from 210k) and continuing claims (1.84mln expected from 1.819mln), Revelio’s public labour statistics report, Challenger job cuts (90k expected in March from 48.3k) and international trade data are due. This all precedes the March NFP report on Good Friday, which is expected at 65k.
• G10s are all losing against the stronger USD; Antipodeans underperform, given the risk tone, whilst the Loonie fares a little better than peers, given it does not rely on external energy. GBP also sits right towards the foot of the G10 pile and is underperforming vs the EUR. A Wednesday rally in Gilts and traders believing the BoE may be slower vs the ECB in containing the energy shock may explain the slight underperformance between the two. This also comes after BoE Governor Bailey suggested earlier in the week that markets were getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes. Cable currently sits at the bottom end of a 1.3195-1.3320 range.
• CHF is also amongst the worst performers against the USD, but is incrementally losing against the EUR. Earlier, a cooler-than-expected (but stronger-than-prior) Swiss inflation report spurred some modest pressure in the Franc, before then reversing soon after. In a bit more detail, headline Y/Y printed at 0.3% (exp. 0.6%, prev. 0.1%); M/M 0.2% (exp. 0.5%). Much of the upside was facilitated by stronger energy prices, leading inflation to the strongest in over a year, and back away from the lower end of the SNB’s 0-2% target. For the time being, this will help alleviate fears at the Bank of bringing back negative interest rates, though policymakers have long reiterated that there is a high bar for such a move.

Central Banks

• ECB's Panetta said leading indicators are pointing towards a slowdown in the economy; tensions in energy markets are a cause for concern not only for the immediate impact, but also on growth. Non-bank financial intermediaries in some sectors show levels of leverage and liquidity which could prove inadequate during periods of acute stress.
• ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026: The risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside, especially in the near term.
• ECB's Simkus said caution is needed on rates and it is too early to say what is needed at the April meeting.
• BoE DMP (Mar): 1yr ahead CPI expectation 3.5% (prev. 3.00%), 3yr ahead CPI expectation 2.7% (prev. 2.8%).

Fixed Income

• A bearish start to the day as US President Trump's primetime address reignited geopolitical tensions (recap on the feed, 07:35BST), lifting energy and in turn fanning the inflationary flame.
• Specifically, USTs dropped from 111-02 pre-Trump to a 110-24 knee-jerk low and have since hit a 110-16 trough. Lifting yields across the curve, 10yr to a 4.38% peak, though shy of Monday's 4.42% WTD peak. Similarly, the 2yr to a 3.86% peak, but shy of Monday's 3.89% WTD best. Action that has seen the implied magnitude of near-term tightening tick up by just under a bp worth. Geopols aside, Challenge Jobs, claims and import/export data; Fed speak is also due.
• EGBs and Gilts, in line with the above bearishness, Bunds hit a 125.19 trough with losses of 51 ticks at most, while Gilts got to a 87.85 low, with downside of 75 ticks. Since, they have bounced by around 20 ticks from extremes, but remain firmly in the red.
• The European docket is a light one; action will continue to be dictated by energy movements and associated inflation/central bank expectations from it. For the ECB and BoE, markets continue to price in 60bps and 41bps of 2026 tightening, respectively. Despite the recent inflation print from the EZ not yet showing second round effects, and despite Bailey pushing back on market pricing this week.
• France sold EUR 12.5bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 3.00% 2034, 3.50% 2035, 0.50% 2044 and 2.00% 2048 OAT.
• Japan sold JPY 1.97tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 2.57x (prev. 3.30x), average yield 2.350% (prev. 2.122%).

Commodities

• In geopolitics, President Trump’s address largely repeated recent messaging on the Middle East, offering little fresh clarity on a path to de-escalation. That being said, Trump's rhetoric has seemingly shifted from a focus on the timeline for wind-down to a more aggressive military escalation within that same window. On March 31st, Trump claimed the US could "leave" Iran within "two or three weeks" because the mission to prevent a nuclear weapon had been "attained." He framed the upcoming period as "finishing the job," asserting that the US would exit regardless of whether a formal deal was reached. On April 1st, in his televised address, he paired the same timeframe with a promise of violence, stating the US would hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks and bring them back to the "Stone Ages".
• WTI and Brent futures have surged after US President Trump’s televised address, which dampened hopes of a near-term end to the conflict. Brent Jun’26 currently eyes USD 109/bbl to the upside (USD 99.08-108.97/bbl range) while WTI May’26 sits around USD 107/bbl (USD 97.50-107.38/bbl range). Meanwhile, European diesel futures hit USD 200/bbl as the Iranian war curbs supply. Dutch TTF is +3.5% at the time of writing, but off its best levels, with some citing forecasts of milder weather as a drag on prices despite the ongoing geopolitics. Analysts at ING suggest that “even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, a return to pre‑war market conditions is likely to be slow, as upstream production restarts, logistics normalisation and inventory rebuilding will take time.”
• Spot gold reversed an earlier gain after Trump’s speech offered little clarity on how the war might end. The bullion entered the European day around USD 4,600/oz after trading above USD 4,800/oz earlier in the APAC session. Spot silver briefly dipped under USD 70/oz before recovering to around USD 71.50/oz, but well off its earlier high of USD 76.42/oz.
• Industrial metals also fell after Trump repeated that the US could strike Iran “extremely hard” and target its power plants if talks fail. 3M LME copper fell under USD 12,500/t but found support at USD 12,250/t. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported Trump is expected to overhaul US steel and aluminium tariffs, with finished goods made from imported metals potentially facing a 25% duty, while the administration is also preparing tariffs on drugmakers, possibly from Thursday, that have not agreed to guarantee low US prices.
• South Korea's Blue House denies the report regarding considering fees on passing through Hormuz. This comes following earlier reports that South Korea is reportedly considering whether to pay Iran to bring in Middle Eastern oil and gas.
• The 8 members of the OPEC+ group still plan to hold their virtual meeting on the 5th of April, according to Kpler's Bakr.
• China has reportedly asked private refiners to maintain fuel output at all costs.
• Russia imposes ban on gasoline exports for producers until the end of July, IFX reported.
• Kpler's Bakr posted "At this point and under the most optimistic scenario Hormuz will remain shut till May. Now brace for impact."
• Iraq's oil ministry said it has began exporting oil through Syria.
• Reconstructing Iran's Khuzestan steel factory will take between 6-12 months, Mizan news reported.
• New Zealand associate energy minister said will enter into an agreement to support an additional 90mln litres of storage for diesel at Marsden Point in Northland.
• Colonial pipeline is reportedly down due to damage in Georgia.
• Venezuela's oil exports in March surpassed 1mln bpd for the first time n six months, according to shipping data.

Trade/tariffs

• US President Trump's administration is readying to impose tariffs of 100% on certain medicines as it pushes pharmaceutical companies to manufacture more in the US, according to FT.
• US President Trump is expected to overhaul steel and aluminium tariffs, while altered rates on finished products would simplify compliance, but could increase costs for many imports, according to WSJ. Plans to alter tariff duties to 25% on the entire value of finished products. 50% tariff will remain for commodity-grade steel and aluminium products. Executive order could come as early as this week.
• China's MOFCOM said they are to enhance communications with the US on trade.
• The EU is discussing setting up digital tech dialogue with the US and reiterates that digital legislation is not up for negotiation.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said in his primetime address that Iran's navy is gone and its air force is in ruins, while he noted most of Iran’s leaders are dead, and its ability to launch missiles and drones has been curtailed. Trump stated they will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon and that US strategic objectives are nearing completion, as well as stated that the mission in Iran will be finished very fast and the US will hit Iran very hard over the next 2–3 weeks, and will bring Iran back to the stone ages, where they belong. Furthermore, he said countries reliant on Hormuz oil should take the lead and that Hormuz will reopen once the conflict ends, while he warned the US will strike Iran’s electric plants if there is no deal and could also target its oil facilities.
• US President Trump said strategic objectives are nearing completion, must complete mission in Iran and will finish the job very fast, adds Iran can never be trusted with nuclear weapons. US has plenty of gas. Countries that get oil via Hormuz must cherish it and must take the lead and suggests countries buy oil from the US. Hormuz will naturally open when conflict is over.
• US intelligence agencies assessed that Tehran is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations to end the conflict, while US intelligence agencies believe Iran's government thinks Trump is not serious about negotiations, according to NYT.
• US VP Vance is engaging with Pakistan mediators over Iran deal and passed a message to Iran via Pakistan on Tuesday, while US and Iran are discussing ceasefire for Hormuz reopening and Vance warned of increasing pressure without a deal, according to ABC.
• UAE reportedly preparing to help the US fight Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz by force after being repeatedly struck by Iranian drones and missiles since the war began, NY Post reported citing Arab officials.
• Senior Iran source said Tehran demands a guaranteed ceasefire to end war permanently and no talks have taken place via mediators for a temporary ceasefire, while intermediaries contacted Iran on Tuesday and discussions were about continuing diplomacy.
• Iran's military spokesperson said bigger, wider and more damaging attacks are coming soon, Tasnim reported.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure shows an inability to achieve a sustainable solution, IRNA reported.
• Faytuks Network posted on X citing Fox News that "Trump’s speech tonight will inform the public that we may require the use of ground troops to round up uranium in Iran" - UNCONFIRMED. This was later deleted.
• Israeli sources say they have not been given the green light from the US yet for Israel to target infrastructure in Lebanon, Al Hadath reported.
• US Embassy in Baghdad has told US citizens to leave Iraq with expectations of Iran-aligned militia to carry out attacks in central Baghdad within 24-48 hours.
• Iran Supreme Leader's advisor, Kamal Kharazi, was reportedly injured in US-Israeli attack on Tehran.
• Iran's atomic energy agency said US-Israeli attacks against facilities under IAEA supervision are a 'war crime'.
• Reports of strong explosions in proximity to US bases in Kuwait, N12 reported.
• Pakistan foreign ministry spokesperson said there is no confirmation so far of any US delegation arriving for talks.
• Explosion reported in Kuwait; explosions are caused by an attack on American positions, Mehr and Fars News report.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Feb Trade Balance, est. -60.55b, prior -54.5b
• 8:30 am: United States Mar 28 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212k, prior 210k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar 21 Continuing Claims, est. 1836.5k, prior 1819k
• 10:15 am: United States Fed’s Logan Speaks at Dallas Fed Banking Conference
• 12:45 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Banking Conference (Closed event)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After rallying sharply over the previous two sessions, market sentiment has deteriorated overnight after Trump’s much anticipated address last night delivered little to nothing new on potential timelines or conditions for ending hostilities against Iran. The US President claimed that the operation against Iran was “very close” to completion but also said the US “will hit Iran extremely hard over the next 2-3 weeks”. Trump again raised the threat to hit Iran’s power plants if there is no negotiated deal and reiterated the view that shipping via the Strait of Hormuz was other countries’ problem. So while Trump sounded flexible on remaining war aims, for instance claiming that Iran is “no longer a threat”, there was no signal of the US seeking an imminent offramp out of the war.

In response, markets have reversed the continued positive momentum they’d seen yesterday amid rising hopes that an end to the conflict might be coming into view. In oil markets, Brent crude is +6.24% higher at $107.47 this morning, a level last seen on Tuesday, even as it had briefly fallen below $100/bbl yesterday evening just before Trump’s address. Equity futures are losing ground overnight, with S&P 500 futures (-1.25%) more than erasing yesterday’s +0.72% regular session gain, while STOXX 50 futures are down -1.75% after posting their best session in almost a year yesterday. In Asia, equity markets have lost ground, with the KOSPI (-4.23%) standing out as the largest underperformer this morning. The Nikkei (-2.42%), Hang Seng (-1.09%), and S&P/ASX 200 (-1.14%) are also seeing significant declines, though in mainland China the CSI (-0.75%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.50%) are more stable.

In the rates space, 10yr Treasury yields are +5.5bps higher at 4.37% this morning after Wednesday’s stable session, while in FX, the dollar index (+0.39%) has more than reversed yesterday’s -0.31% decline. Gold (-1.89%) is similarly reversing yesterday’s +1.94% gain.
Prior to the overnight news, the continued rally yesterday appeared to be one of hope more than conviction as investors navigated a dizzying influx of competing headlines. Among those was Trump’s post early yesterday that Iran’s “New Regime President” had asked the US for a ceasefire, which Trump said he would only consider when the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear”. Iran’s foreign ministry later responded, calling the ceasefire claim “false and baseless“. That response arrived amidst an Axios report that the US and Iran were negotiating a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Iran’s President Pezeshkian released an open letter, claiming that Iran harboured no enmity towards the people of America.

Another headline-drawing Trump comment yesterday was that he was strongly considering pulling out of NATO, though he then did not directly raise this topic in his overnight address. We also heard that NATO Secretary General Rutte is due to visit Washington next week. Note that the political bar for formal US withdrawal from NATO is high, as this would require a two thirds majority in the Senate or passing an act of Congress. The role of US allies has been a rising topic in its own right, with news that the UK will today convene virtual talks with some 35 countries not including the US to discuss a plan to restore shipping via the Strait of Hormuz.

In terms of yesterday’s other news, 2yr US Treasury yields (+0.9bps) inched higher as the decline in oil prices was outweighed by solid US data. The March ISM manufacturing came in at 52.7 vs 52.3 expected, with the prices paid component rising to 78.3 (vs 74.0 expected), its highest reading since mid-2022. The US ADP private employment figures for March (+62K vs +40K) were also on the stronger side.
US labour market data will remain in focus with the latest weekly claims today and then the March jobs report on Friday, even as most markets are closed for Good Friday. For Friday’s non-farm payrolls our US economists see headline gains of +50k (vs -92k previous) and private payrolls at +60k (vs -86k), reflecting a return closer to the average pace of job gains over the latter half of 2025. 01

In terms of the details of yesterday’s upbeat market moves, the +0.72% gain for the S&P 500 was again led by tech stocks, as the NASDAQ (+1.16%) and the Mag-7 (+1.37%) powered ahead for a second day. Credit also saw a strong rally, with US HY credit spreads (-16bps after -18bps Tuesday) registering their best two-day run since last May. And European equities saw a sharp surge as investors caught up to the US rally that started on Tuesday, with the STOXX 600 (+2.50%), DAX (+2.73%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.85%) all posting their largest jumps since last April.

European bonds also rallied on the prospect of lower oil prices as well as declining natural gas prices, as front month TTF futures fell by -5.49% to €47.51/MWh, their lowest level since March 10. Yields on 10yr bunds fell -1.8bps to 2.98%, while BTPs (-7.8bps) and OATs (-5.2bps) outperformed amid the risk-on mood. Gilt yields saw an even larger pullback, with the 10yr down -8.6bps as the UK manufacturing PMI for March was revised down from 51.4 to 51.0. That was in contrast to a moderate upward revision to the Euro Area manufacturing PMI (51.6 from 51.4), which showed more resilience to the energy shock.

Yesterday, I published a note looking at what the March PMIs tell us about the impact of the Iran war on the global economy.  While we’ve seen a major inflation and supply shock, this has varied across countries and there are some silver linings. For instance, the behaviour of output prices across the G10 has been more akin to the pre-Covid era than the 2021-22 inflationary period, which may offer some breathing room for central banks concerned about inflationary risks. See the note here.

In data out of Asia this morning, South Korea’s consumer inflation picked up from +2.0% to +2.2% in March, though this is below consensus expectations of +2.3%. So providing some tentative relief to policymakers dealing with the spillover effects of curtailed energy supplies out of the Middle East.

To the day ahead now, we will get further US data, with the February trade balance and latest weekly jobless claims. And while we take a break on Good Friday, the US will release the March jobs report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 08:33

New Bill Opens Door For Killer AI Weapons

Authored by Jon Fleetwood,

A newly introduced U.S. Senate bill would allow the military to deploy autonomous lethal artificial intelligence systems by granting the Secretary of Defense the authority to override its own restrictions.

Senate Bill S.4113—the “AI Guardrails Act of 2026,” introduced March 17, 2026 by U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI)—is being presented as a framework to limit how the Department of Defense uses AI.

But the actual text includes a built-in waiver mechanism that enables those same systems to be approved and used under national security justifications.

This means a Pentagon-approved AI system could independently identify and engage targets, making life-and-death decisions without real-time human input.

There is no language in that waiver clause limiting where the system can be used, whether targets are foreign or domestic.

The bill has been read twice in the Senate and referred to the Senate Armed Services Committee, where it now awaits further consideration.

The waiver raises questions about how often “extraordinary circumstances” will be invoked, who ultimately decides when autonomous lethal force is justified, and what meaningful limits—if any—remain once that authority is exercised.

Waiver Authority Built Into the Core Restriction

The bill prohibits the use of AI for:

• Launching or detonating nuclear weapons

• Domestic monitoring or targeting without legal basis

• Using lethal force through autonomous weapon systems without human oversight

Immediately following that restriction, the bill states:

The Secretary of Defense “may waive the prohibitions… for up to one year” and renew that waiver if “extraordinary circumstances affecting the national security of the United States require the waiver”

How It Works

The decision to authorize autonomous lethal systems is placed with the Secretary of Defense.

• Waivers last up to one year

• Waivers can be renewed

• Congress is notified after issuance

• Notifications may include classified components

The bill requires certification that the system’s error rate does not exceed that of human operators performing comparable functions.

Operational Scope

The waiver applies to:

• Development

• Field deployment

• System modifications

It also covers changes to:

• Mission sets

• Target sets

• Operational environments

• Algorithmic behavior

Each of those changes can trigger continued or expanded authorization under the same waiver structure.

Sponsor Background

The bill was introduced by Sen. Elissa Slotkin, whose background includes:

• CIA analyst

• Department of Defense official

• Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs

Her professional history is directly tied to the national security institutions governed by the bill.

Campaign Finance Alignment

Slotkin’s donor base includes multiple sectors tied to AI development, autonomous systems, and the broader defense-tech pipeline enabled by this bill.

According to OpenSecrets data, top contributors include:

• Alphabet Inc ($96,669) and Amazon ($53,771)—major AI developers and federal cloud contractors

• General Motors ($57,081) and Ford ($54,020)—advancing autonomous and robotics systems applicable to military use

• University of Michigan, Michigan State, Harvard, Stanford—key hubs for federally funded AI and defense-related research

• Kirkland & Ellis ($52,360) and WilmerHale ($81,463)—heavily involved in structuring large-scale federal and defense contracts

The bill authorizes deployment of autonomous AI systems under a renewable waiver controlled by the Pentagon.

The companies and institutions funding Slotkin are directly tied to building the AI, infrastructure, and legal frameworks required to support that expansion.

The legislation opens the door, and her donor base sits inside the ecosystem that stands to operate and profit within it.

Bottom Line

The legislation places a restriction on autonomous lethal AI systems while granting the Secretary of Defense—currently Pete Hegseth—the authority to waive that restriction under “national security” conditions.

That waiver:

• Is controlled by a single Pentagon official

• Can be renewed indefinitely

• Applies to real-world deployment, targeting, and system evolution

• Contains no language limiting where such systems may be used

Congress is notified after the fact, not required to approve.

The authority to deploy autonomous lethal AI systems sits inside the same section that claims to restrict them.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 07:20

New Bill Opens Door For Killer AI Weapons

Authored by Jon Fleetwood,

A newly introduced U.S. Senate bill would allow the military to deploy autonomous lethal artificial intelligence systems by granting the Secretary of Defense the authority to override its own restrictions.

Senate Bill S.4113—the “AI Guardrails Act of 2026,” introduced March 17, 2026 by U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI)—is being presented as a framework to limit how the Department of Defense uses AI.

But the actual text includes a built-in waiver mechanism that enables those same systems to be approved and used under national security justifications.

This means a Pentagon-approved AI system could independently identify and engage targets, making life-and-death decisions without real-time human input.

There is no language in that waiver clause limiting where the system can be used, whether targets are foreign or domestic.

The bill has been read twice in the Senate and referred to the Senate Armed Services Committee, where it now awaits further consideration.

The waiver raises questions about how often “extraordinary circumstances” will be invoked, who ultimately decides when autonomous lethal force is justified, and what meaningful limits—if any—remain once that authority is exercised.

Waiver Authority Built Into the Core Restriction

The bill prohibits the use of AI for:

• Launching or detonating nuclear weapons

• Domestic monitoring or targeting without legal basis

• Using lethal force through autonomous weapon systems without human oversight

Immediately following that restriction, the bill states:

The Secretary of Defense “may waive the prohibitions… for up to one year” and renew that waiver if “extraordinary circumstances affecting the national security of the United States require the waiver”

How It Works

The decision to authorize autonomous lethal systems is placed with the Secretary of Defense.

• Waivers last up to one year

• Waivers can be renewed

• Congress is notified after issuance

• Notifications may include classified components

The bill requires certification that the system’s error rate does not exceed that of human operators performing comparable functions.

Operational Scope

The waiver applies to:

• Development

• Field deployment

• System modifications

It also covers changes to:

• Mission sets

• Target sets

• Operational environments

• Algorithmic behavior

Each of those changes can trigger continued or expanded authorization under the same waiver structure.

Sponsor Background

The bill was introduced by Sen. Elissa Slotkin, whose background includes:

• CIA analyst

• Department of Defense official

• Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs

Her professional history is directly tied to the national security institutions governed by the bill.

Campaign Finance Alignment

Slotkin’s donor base includes multiple sectors tied to AI development, autonomous systems, and the broader defense-tech pipeline enabled by this bill.

According to OpenSecrets data, top contributors include:

• Alphabet Inc ($96,669) and Amazon ($53,771)—major AI developers and federal cloud contractors

• General Motors ($57,081) and Ford ($54,020)—advancing autonomous and robotics systems applicable to military use

• University of Michigan, Michigan State, Harvard, Stanford—key hubs for federally funded AI and defense-related research

• Kirkland & Ellis ($52,360) and WilmerHale ($81,463)—heavily involved in structuring large-scale federal and defense contracts

The bill authorizes deployment of autonomous AI systems under a renewable waiver controlled by the Pentagon.

The companies and institutions funding Slotkin are directly tied to building the AI, infrastructure, and legal frameworks required to support that expansion.

The legislation opens the door, and her donor base sits inside the ecosystem that stands to operate and profit within it.

Bottom Line

The legislation places a restriction on autonomous lethal AI systems while granting the Secretary of Defense—currently Pete Hegseth—the authority to waive that restriction under “national security” conditions.

That waiver:

• Is controlled by a single Pentagon official

• Can be renewed indefinitely

• Applies to real-world deployment, targeting, and system evolution

• Contains no language limiting where such systems may be used

Congress is notified after the fact, not required to approve.

The authority to deploy autonomous lethal AI systems sits inside the same section that claims to restrict them.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 07:20

New Warning Sign: 1 In 4 Workers Have Cut 401k Contribution Rate

Another light on America's economic dashboard is blinking red, as money-pinched workers are cutting their 401k contribution rates. The news follows our earlier report on hardship withdrawals from the cornerstone retirement savings accounts hitting a record high. Critically, these numbers don't reflect what workers are doing right now -- amid war-driven gas price-hikes and worries about the economy. 

According to new data from Dayforce's State of Retirement Savings 2026 report, in 2025, Americans trimmed their contribution rates to 401k and similar plans from 9.2% to 8.9%. While the decline was relatively modest, it was a widespread phenomenon, with more than one in four workers reducing their contributions. Employees earning between $50,000 and $150,000 were most likely to have eased back. The participation rate slipped from 78.6% in 2024 to 77.5%. The decreases come despite wider use of automatic enrollment in retirement plans, and increasingly-common auto-escalation features that ratchet up contributions each year.  

Want an even better-proportioned one for yourself -- the mug, that is? Get yours at the ZeroHedge Store today and support our work

"When you are struggling day to day, it's hard to focus on your long-term goals," Matt Bahl, vice president at the Financial Health Network, told CBS News. "We're really seeing the crunch for those middle-income earners — it speaks to the affordability crisis."

Dayforce cautioned that employers' concern about the trend should go beyond future retirement security, and include their workers' present-day financial stress. "[It] can influence engagement, productivity, and retention," said the company, which offers a cloud-based "Global Human Capital Management" platform. As 2025 ended, roughly half of Americans in an Allianz Life survey said they had more financial stress than they did a year ago.   

via Dayforce's "The State of Retirement Savings 2026"

Reinforcing that picture of growing financial stress, loan use increased more than 20% since 2022. The Dayforce study didn't cover hardship withdrawals, but Vanguard's How America Saves 2025 study found that hardship withdrawal activity "increased to a new high" of 6% in 2025, up from 4.8% in 2024 and about 2% before the pandemic. In part, that trend was facilitated by a regulatory change -- in 2018, Congress nixed a requirement that participants first take a 401(k) loan before they could take a hardship withdrawal. 

Men's 2025 savings rate topped women's -- 9.6% to 8.2% -- though that gap was wider a few years ago. Asians had the top savings rate (10.4%), with whites close behind (10.1%), followed by blacks (6.0%) and then Latinos (4.7%). Conversely, 28.7% of blacks and Latinos collectively had an active loan from their retirement accounts, compared to 15.9% of whites. No loan data was given for Asians.  

Watch for all these indicators to keep trending down: Cost-of-living effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are poised to grow stronger as the global oil shockwave steadily moves closer to America's shores.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 06:55

New Warning Sign: 1 In 4 Workers Have Cut 401k Contribution Rate

Another light on America's economic dashboard is blinking red, as money-pinched workers are cutting their 401k contribution rates. The news follows our earlier report on hardship withdrawals from the cornerstone retirement savings accounts hitting a record high. Critically, these numbers don't reflect what workers are doing right now -- amid war-driven gas price-hikes and worries about the economy. 

According to new data from Dayforce's State of Retirement Savings 2026 report, in 2025, Americans trimmed their contribution rates to 401k and similar plans from 9.2% to 8.9%. While the decline was relatively modest, it was a widespread phenomenon, with more than one in four workers reducing their contributions. Employees earning between $50,000 and $150,000 were most likely to have eased back. The participation rate slipped from 78.6% in 2024 to 77.5%. The decreases come despite wider use of automatic enrollment in retirement plans, and increasingly-common auto-escalation features that ratchet up contributions each year.  

Want an even better-proportioned one for yourself -- the mug, that is? Get yours at the ZeroHedge Store today and support our work

"When you are struggling day to day, it's hard to focus on your long-term goals," Matt Bahl, vice president at the Financial Health Network, told CBS News. "We're really seeing the crunch for those middle-income earners — it speaks to the affordability crisis."

Dayforce cautioned that employers' concern about the trend should go beyond future retirement security, and include their workers' present-day financial stress. "[It] can influence engagement, productivity, and retention," said the company, which offers a cloud-based "Global Human Capital Management" platform. As 2025 ended, roughly half of Americans in an Allianz Life survey said they had more financial stress than they did a year ago.   

via Dayforce's "The State of Retirement Savings 2026"

Reinforcing that picture of growing financial stress, loan use increased more than 20% since 2022. The Dayforce study didn't cover hardship withdrawals, but Vanguard's How America Saves 2025 study found that hardship withdrawal activity "increased to a new high" of 6% in 2025, up from 4.8% in 2024 and about 2% before the pandemic. In part, that trend was facilitated by a regulatory change -- in 2018, Congress nixed a requirement that participants first take a 401(k) loan before they could take a hardship withdrawal. 

Men's 2025 savings rate topped women's -- 9.6% to 8.2% -- though that gap was wider a few years ago. Asians had the top savings rate (10.4%), with whites close behind (10.1%), followed by blacks (6.0%) and then Latinos (4.7%). Conversely, 28.7% of blacks and Latinos collectively had an active loan from their retirement accounts, compared to 15.9% of whites. No loan data was given for Asians.  

Watch for all these indicators to keep trending down: Cost-of-living effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are poised to grow stronger as the global oil shockwave steadily moves closer to America's shores.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 06:55