To Fly, You'll Soon Need A REAL ID: What To Know

Authored by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

On May 7, 2025, millions of Americans will be unable to use their government-issued photo identification—usually, a driver’s license—to board a domestic flight, enter a federal government building, or visit a nuclear power plant. It is part of a plan enacted by Congress 20 years ago that is finally coming to fruition.

Passengers pass through O'Hare International Airport in Chicago on July 3, 2024. Scott Olson/Getty Images

“REAL ID” is a term coined by the REAL ID Act of 2005. The law was passed a few years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, in response to security concerns about the identities of people visiting possible terrorist targets.

Many of the 9/11 terrorists used loopholes to obtain IDs before boarding the passenger planes they then hijacked and crashed into buildings.

A REAL ID is issued by a state after a more thorough check of a person’s identity. Applicants for a REAL ID must provide proof of lawful status in the United States. A REAL ID is distinguished from a regular driver’s license by the presence of either a black or gold star in the top corner of the card.

For Americans, REAL IDs will be most important for boarding flights. Beginning on May 7, 2025, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will accept only state IDs that are either REAL IDs or REAL ID-compliant documents. Many Americans without a REAL ID, hence, will be unable to travel by air.

Here is some more information about the plan.

Obtaining a REAL ID or Alternatives

All U.S. citizens eligible for state ID cards are also eligible for REAL IDs. Foreign nationals, by contrast, may be eligible for REAL IDs, depending on the type of immigration status they have in the United States.

The application process for a REAL ID varies from state to state. However, applicants usually must go to a state’s Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) office or the equivalent, as when applying for a driver’s license. Ahead of the May 7 deadline, some state DMV offices are offering special REAL ID appointments to help convert existing IDs to REAL IDs.

Applying for a REAL ID requires proof of U.S. citizenship (e.g., a birth certificate, a naturalization/citizenship certificate, an unexpired passport, a passport card, or a consular report of birth abroad).

Foreign nationals will likely need to provide their passports and evidence of lawful status in the United States, such as a permanent resident card (i.e., a “green card”), visa sticker in their passport, or other documentation issued by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), such as an I-94 record of admission or I-797A Notice of Approval.

The length of a REAL ID’s validity for a foreign national may be limited by the length of the authorized stay in the United States, requiring more frequent reapplication. Tourists visiting on B-1/B-2 status are ineligible for REAL IDs.

Additionally, anyone applying for a REAL ID will need to present an original Social Security card issued by the Social Security Administration or alternative documents that show his or her Social Security number (e.g., a W-2 form). Moreover, he or she will need to provide at least two proofs of an address in that state or jurisdiction. Acceptable proofs may vary from state to state.

Most REAL IDs will be driver’s licenses or state-issued ID cards for nondrivers. Because of the citizenship verification requirements, REAL IDs will likely cost more to obtain than regular driver’s licenses or state IDs. Non-REAL IDs may still be issued by states and recognized by them, but will be invalid for federal purposes after May 7 and will likely contain a notation reading “Not Valid for Federal Purposes” on the plastic card.

If someone does not have a REAL ID, or does not wish to obtain it, there are other acceptable forms of identification that person may use to board domestic flights. These are known as “REAL ID-compliant” documents. They include unexpired U.S. passports and passport cards, enhanced driver’s licenses issued by some states, foreign passports, Trusted Traveler Program cards (e.g., Global Entry), and Tribal ID cards, among others.

A REAL ID alone is not enough to fly internationally; a passport booklet will still be required.

It is unclear whether mobile driver’s licenses, which are digital certificates that can be downloaded to the Apple Wallet and Google Wallet programs, will be accepted for REAL ID purposes.

Some states, such as Georgia and California, allow people to download mobile licenses in addition to their physical cards and use them interchangeably. As of November 2024, states can seek waivers to have their mobile driver’s licenses recognized for REAL ID purposes, although DHS has not yet published the list of states that have been granted waivers, if any.

Illegal Immigrants

Beyond bureaucracy and higher fees, U.S. citizens and lawfully present foreign nationals are likely to face minimal difficulties with the REAL ID program. Most illegal immigrants, by contrast, will not be eligible for the program.

Any foreign national who entered the United States without inspection, or who was lawfully admitted but remained beyond the expiry of his or her stay (without applying for a new status or seeking asylum), will not be able to obtain a REAL ID, which requires proof of valid lawful status. Without REAL IDs, these persons will be unable to fly in the domestic United States or enter federal facilities.

Many states, particularly those led by the Democratic Party or progressive politicians, issue identification documents to illegal immigrants that are nearly indistinguishable from those issued to U.S. citizens. REAL ID, however, will create some distinction between them, which could be the basis for immigration enforcement actions.

As a result, many states will continue to issue IDs that are “Not Valid for Federal Purposes,” which illegal immigrants and U.S. citizens alike may obtain for daily use. Additionally, some municipalities, such as New York City, now issue ID cards to all persons regardless of their lawful status in the country.

However, there are two exceptions.

Recipients of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) or the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program are classes of illegal immigrants who are specifically eligible for REAL IDs. Section 202 of the REAL ID Act specifically allows for REAL IDs for persons with “approved deferred action,” which DHS has confirmed will apply after May 7. However, should a person’s TPS or DACA status be terminated, his or her REAL ID may likewise become invalid, rendering that person ineligible.

Domestic Opposition

The REAL ID Act initially required all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and five territories to comply with federal requirements by May 11, 2008. However, opposition from states delayed implementation. Many did not wish to harmonize their ID processes with the program, seeing it as an additional burden.

Eventually, most complied, and by 2014, REAL ID enforcement was phased in incrementally at some federal facilities. Still, processing delays and the unwillingness of many Americans to change their IDs led the federal government to extend the deadline multiple times, with three extensions during the COVID-19 pandemic alone.

The Trump administration has decided to implement the program in full on the May 7 deadline, which accords with its policy goal of removing illegal immigrants from the United States and excluding them from domestic benefits.

“REAL ID is coming ... and so is your existential crisis,” the TSA wrote on social media platform X. “You know that flimsy driver’s license you’ve been carrying? You’re going to need to upgrade it to a REAL ID by May 7.”

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has announced her commitment to the program.

“These IDs keep our country safe because they help prevent fraud and enhance security,” she said in a video message about the REAL ID program posted on X. “Please do your part to protect our country.”

Some libertarian politicians (including Republicans), who oppose what they call “government overreach,” have voiced opposition to the REAL ID program, citing the risk of government surveillance of Americans.

“Real ID isn’t needed and won’t stop terrorists from hijacking planes,” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) wrote in a statement on X.

“Most of the 9/11 hijackers held Saudi, [United Arab Emirates], Egyptian, or Lebanese passports. Real ID is a national standard and database of IDs that is primarily a tool for control of Americans. Trump shouldn’t enforce it.”

Others, such as airport authorities, have warned that the inconvenience of obtaining a REAL ID and non-compliance will lead to travel delays, long lines, and angry passengers at airports.

“Avoid last-minute travel chaos — REAL ID deadline goes into effect May 7,” the San Diego International Airport authority wrote on X.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 19:15

CDC Advisers Consider Recommending Narrower Use Of COVID-19 Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are considering advising the agency to narrow use of COVID-19 vaccines.

A healthcare worker prepares a COVID-19 vaccine in a file photograph. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

A majority of experts in a subgroup of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which advises the CDC on vaccines, have determined that the COVID-19 vaccines should not be universally recommended, according to a presentation Dr. Lakshmi Panagiotakopoulos of the CDC delivered to the panel on April 15.

Seventy-six percent of the advisers in the subgroup studying the matter said they support a non-universal recommendation as of April 3.

That’s up from 67 percent in February.

Advisers who were polled said they would be comfortable with any non-universal recommendation, such as only recommending the vaccines for certain age groups.

“I’m very happy that we’re seriously considering a risk-based recommendation,” Dr. Jamie Loehr, an ACIP member, said during Tuesday’s meeting.

Loehr also said he was concerned that if a risk-based recommendation is implemented, it might send a message that COVID-19 is no longer dangerous, when it’s still causing hospitalizations and deaths.

Charlotte Moser, the consumer representative committee member, said she was also supportive of narrowing the recommendation. She said she was thinking that a narrower recommendation, though, should emphasize the importance of vaccinating young children.

Dr. Denise Jamieson, another member, said she did not think a narrower recommendation was wise. She noted that, according to an unpublished CDC analysis of medical claims, some three-quarters of U.S. adults have at least one condition, such as chronic liver disease, that puts them at higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19.

Loehr said that in his own practice, the percentage is much lower.

Advisers said they would be comfortable with any non-universal recommendation, such as only recommending the vaccines for certain age groups.

The CDC currently recommends all Americans aged 6 months and older receive one of the available COVID-19 vaccines, even if they have been vaccinated in the past.

ACIP merely provides advice to the CDC, but the agency typically turns the advice into official recommendations.

A formal ACIP vote on advice to the CDC on the next round of COVID-19 vaccines, or the 2025–2026 vaccines, is not expected to take place until June, according to the CDC.

In a separate presentation delivered during Tuesday’s meeting, data from CDC networks showed the effectiveness of the current round of vaccines provides a boost in protection against hospitalization that’s under 50 percent.

Ruth Link-Gelles, another CDC employee, who delivered the presentation, concluded that the vaccines “provided additional protection against COVID-19-associated emergency department and urgent care visits and hospitalizations compared to no 2024-2025 vaccine dose.”

The high level of existing immunity after COVID-19 infection may be affecting the effectiveness results, Link-Gelles said. Prior infection “contributes protection against future disease, though protection wanes over time,” she said.

About 22 percent of U.S. adults have received one of the 2024–2025 COVID-19 vaccines as of late March 2025, compared to 21 percent who received the vaccines available in 2023 and early 2024 through late March 2024, according to the CDC.

Hospitalizations with COVID-19 are down from the prior year, while hospitalizations with influenza are up from 2023–2024, according to a third presentation. Most of the people who were hospitalized with COVID-19 had not received one of the latest COVID-19 vaccines before being hospitalized.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 18:25

Made In China Vs Made In America

While China’s status as the world’s largest manufacturing hub seems to be a law of nature these days - one only challenged by President Trump - that hasn’t always been the case. 

In fact, as Statista's Felix Richter shows in the chart below, as recently as 2009, the U.S. trumped China in manufacturing output as measured by total value added in the sector.

 

You will find more infographics at Statista

China’s manufacturing output climbed from roughly $134 billion in 1980 to roughly $4.8 trillion in 2023. 

During that time, China’s share of global manufacturing output climbed from 5 percent to around 30 percent, while former manufacturing leader the United States saw its share drop from 21 to 17 percent. 

In 2001, the U.S. share of global manufacturing peaked at 28 percent, but China’s accession to the WTO in 2001, which opened the country up to the world economy, quickly changed the balance of power.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 18:00

Georgia Man Sentenced To 6.5 Years In Prison For Laundering Cartel Money

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Georgia man has been sentenced to 6.5 years in prison for his role in a scheme to launder millions of dollars in illicit drug proceeds for Mexican cartels.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) in Washington on March 10, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Judge Claude M. Hilton of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia handed down the sentence to Li Pei Tan, 47, of Buford, Georgia, on April 11, according to a court statement. Tan pleaded guilty in October 2024 after he was arrested several months earlier.

Tan’s coconspirator, Chaojie Chen, a 41-year-old Chinese national living in Chicago, was sentenced to more than 7.5 years in December 2024.

Tan and Chen worked on behalf of foreign drug trafficking organizations, including the Sinaloa Cartel and the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación. The two, along with other coconspirators, traveled throughout the United States to collect money gained from trafficking fentanyl, cocaine, and other illicit drugs.

The Drug Enforcement Administration said in its 2024 threat assessment report that the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels “are at the heart” of the fentanyl crisis. The agency said the two cartels “rely on chemical companies and pill press companies in China” for precursor chemicals and equipment and “utilize Chinese Money Laundering Organizations to move their profits from the United States back to Mexico.”

According to a court document submitted days before the sentence was imposed, prosecutors said Tan and his coconspirators often received bulk cash amounts from drug trafficking organizations, and they transported the money across state lines so that the “funds could be transacted with and laundered several states removed from where the proceeds were generated.”

Tan and his coconspirators used encrypted messaging platforms for communication, such as the Chinese app WeChat, according to the court document.

They relied on bank accounts in both China and the United States for their scheme, the court document stated.

To further their money laundering conspiracy, Tan and his coconspirators also purchased bulk electronics in the United States and shipped them to coconspirators in China, according to the court document. In return, Tan received commissions for these shipments.

On March 3, 2024, nearly 12 weeks before being arrested, Tan was stopped by law enforcement officials during a traffic stop near Charlotte, North Carolina. He was found to have in his possession $197,700 in illicit drug proceeds.

Tan’s money laundering totaled more than $3.5 million, according to the court document.

Prosecutors explained in the court document that they had sought a sentence of more than 11 years for Chen, who admitted to laundering more than $14 million in illicit drug proceeds.

Considering Chen’s involvement in the scheme and that he received a 90-month sentence, prosecutors argued that the judge should sentence Tan to 108 months, or nine years, of imprisonment.

Prosecutors said that sentence “adequately reflects the seriousness of the defendant’s conduct,” and “will serve to deter the defendant and others from engaging in similar, potentially deadly criminal activity.”

“The defendant was a crucial member of an international money laundering conspiracy who enriched himself on the back of international drug trafficking, a ruinous and destructive trade that has brought untold suffering to communities throughout the United States and fueled instability and violence abroad,” the court document states.

Tan’s lawyer, Robert L. Jenkins Jr., said his client regretted his involvement in the scheme.

“Mr. Tan is a hard-working family man. He truly regrets becoming involved in this matter. He sincerely wishes to put it behind him and refocus his attention on his family,” Jenkins stated in an email to The Epoch Times on April 14.

In December 2024, a federal judge in Illinois sentenced Pan Haiping to 10 years behind bars for laundering $62 million in illegal narcotics proceeds on behalf of Mexican drug traffickers.

Pan, a Chinese national, collaborated with accomplices to launder as much as $3 million monthly in drug proceeds using “secretive money pickups” in several U.S. cities, including Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York, followed by currency swaps between the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan, and the Chinese yuan and the Mexican peso, according to prosecutors.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 17:40

NJ Sushi Restaurant Owner Charged With Acting As Unregistered Agent Of Chinese Government

A 61 year old man known as “Sushi John” and owner of Ya Ya Noodles in Montgomery Township, NJ, was arrested by ICE in Newark on March 24, according to the NY Post.

Ming Xi Zhang, 61, was convicted in April 2024 of “acting as an unregistered agent of the Chinese government” and sentenced to three years’ probation. He had pleaded guilty in 2021 to serving as a Chinese agent in 2016 without notifying the U.S. Attorney General.

According to ICE, Zhang legally entered the U.S. in 2000 but later “violated the terms of his lawful admission.” He is being held at the Elizabeth Detention Center awaiting immigration proceedings, following his recent arrest by ICE amid a broader deportation push under President Trump.

Photo: NY Post

The NY Post writes that in 2016, Zhang met with Chinese security officials in the Bahamas and delivered $35,000 to an unnamed individual in New Jersey. He also admitted to hosting a Chinese government agent twice at his Princeton home that fall, according to NJ.com.

“He’s doing good, I mean, given the circumstances,” a worker at his restaurant told the Post. “But yeah, he’s just kind of waiting… to get let out.”

Since his arrest, local support in the blue state has accelerated. Apparently citizens of New Jersey are just fine with Zhang acting on behalf of the Chinese government.

“The whole town has been really supportive,” the worker added. “Everyone’s been coming in, offering phone numbers, talking to his family . . . everyone’s really supportive.”

No word yet on whether or not it was Eric Swalwell's favorite place to eat when visiting New Jersey...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 17:20

Multiplication, Biden-Style: School Bias Cases Doubled

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

While limiting strings-attached grants and curbing federal regulation, President Trump’s efforts to dismantle the Department of Education also take aim at a key tool bureaucrats use to oversee schools in all 50 states: civil rights investigations.

Probes handled by the department’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) against public schools, colleges and universities roughly doubled during the Biden administration, topping 20,000 last year. Investigations by hundreds of OCR lawyers and staff members – and responses to them by untold numbers of school officials and administrators – touched on everything from allegations of sexual violence and disability accommodations to website compatibility. 

Defenders of the office say it has been an invaluable protector of civil rights for America’s nearly 70 million students. They say eliminating or even downsizing the office, which has already begun, would kneecap thousands of ongoing investigations while abolishing a prime instrument of justice. 

“This reckless action strips students of vital resources and tears down statutorily mandated functions that are essential to addressing racial and economic inequality in education,” the ACLU declared last month. Trump, it said, has put “millions of students’ education and civil rights at risk.”

Advocates for handicapped students, who until recent years accounted for half of all complaints, are concerned they might get short shrift in the Trump administration and have gone to court to block cuts. “We have many members who file complaints, and it has left many of them in limbo, or distraught, thinking there will be no accountability,” said Selene A. Almazan, legal director of the Council of Parent Attorneys and Advocates, plaintiffs in a suit filed March 14. 

But backers of Trump’s effort to eliminate the Department of Education counter that the Office for Civil Rights is a symbol of how the federal government has expanded its reach into what they describe as chiefly local matters. They say its investigative arm has been designed to make it as easy as possible for the department to maximize its influence and oversight through investigations. 

A complainant does not need a personal connection to a school. Indeed, petitioners don’t even have to live in the same state, and legal standing is not a factor. They do not even need to identify themselves. They are not required to try to resolve their problems at the local level before notifying the feds – though many do. Consequently, the office’s operations sometimes function as a nationwide anonymous sounding board rather than a source of last resort, a place where anyone can make a federal case out of any slight, real or perceived.

Although OCR probes include many serious allegations, the system’s structure means the number of cases can be inflated through duplication, serial filers and ambitious bureaucrats.

“The numbers aren’t really what they first appear,” said Teresa R. Manning, policy director at the National Association of Scholars, a conservative counterweight in higher education to the liberal American Association of University Professors. “A lot of this was by design. If they didn’t have complaints, they wouldn’t have jobs, so a lot of federal bureaucrats and campus officers want any grievance to become a federal case.”

The numbers themselves are unclear. Neither the Department of Education nor its Office for Civil Rights responded to multiple requests for comment, and a listed phone number is no longer manned daily; voice messages left there were not returned. But it appears the administration has laid off some 240 people in the OCR, shuttering at least six of its 12 regional offices. Currently, eight of 22 “key staff” positions there are vacant, according to its website.

When Trump and Secretary of Education Linda McMahon first announced layoffs in February, reports mentioned 12,000 active investigations listed on the OCR database, which was last updated on Jan. 14. Last month, Sen. Bernie Sanders announced his own report on the office, claiming 6,800 cases would be shortchanged by the layoffs. 

But no matter which total is used, the claim that U.S. schools are teeming with incidents of overt racism or sexism, or bias against handicapped students, is misleading, according to experts familiar with the OCR and its work. 

In theory, every complaint is reviewed to determine if it constitutes discrimination on the basis of race (“Title VI”), sex (“Title IX”), or disability. If so, the Office for Civil Rights can open an investigation, or its attorneys can allege that there are “systemic” violations and trigger much broader investigations.

Such initiatives were highlighted in a glossy report the office released on Jan. 16, four days before Trump’s inauguration. The office appears to have published six such “special reports” since 2016, with half of those during Biden’s term. Two of them – the first and another in 2021 – dealt with alleged “racial disparities” or “equity” in school discipline.

This looks like a more proactive OCR following the age-old practice of boosting the cases on its books and then insisting it needs more funding, said Jim Blew, a co-founder of the Defense of Freedom Institute and a former assistant secretary of education in Trump’s first term.

“Skepticism is legitimate, because by declaring something is ‘systemic,’ then rather than resolve that one issue they can turn it into a federal case,” Blew said. “And if you’re going to interpret the discrimination on much different and broader levels than ever before, that’s going to increase the number of complaints, too.” 

RealClearInvestigations found that, despite claims that cuts to OCR will impede “prompt” action or justice for filers, the office did not always handle complaints promptly. Among the 12,000 ongoing investigations listed in the OCR database – half of which involved disability complaints – RCI found active investigations into alleged incidents that occurred in 2016 or 2017, long after any students at the schools in question would have departed. Many alleged incidents also triggered more than one investigation, meaning the “thousands” are fewer than they first appear.

The investigations can take years. Alabama A&M University, for example, is under investigation for “sexual violence” that allegedly occurred on Aug. 24, 2016. The university did not respond to requests for comments on this alleged incident or general compliance with OCR.

Similarly, on Aug. 2, 2017, an alleged incident in Mississippi’s Greene County School District sparked two investigations, one for racial harassment and another for “retaliation” that remain active, according to OCR’s website.

Also, totals were swollen by one unnamed individual. For example, in 2022 when OCR received 9,948 complaints of Title IX violations, nearly three out of four – 7,339 – came from this person. That same individual slipped a bit the following year, accounting for only 69% of the 5,590 complaints. RCI asked several people familiar with Office of Civil Rights work who this person might be, but none said they knew.

The number of complaints skyrocketed during the Biden administration, doubling the average that had held for more than a decade, records show. Last April, Biden regulators sought a radical expansion of Title IX sex discrimination protection to cover things like “gender identity.” That attempt was later blocked by the courts.  

Through President Obama’s two terms and Trump’s first term, the office received just under 10,000 complaints annually. In 2022, however, that figure shot up to a record 18,804 and did not stop climbing. It jumped 18% in 2023 before topping 20,000 complaints for the first time in 2024, according to OCR.

It’s not exactly clear what accounted for the big increases, according to experts. But the usual breakdown of classification of complaints changed. Instead of disability complaints comprising more than half of the total OCR received, 42% of those filed in 2023 concerned sexual discrimination, while disability complaints fell to a bit more than a third, according to the office’s figures.

Office for Civil Rights attorneys can launch investigations, or encourage schools to do so, via the well-known “Dear Colleague” letter that alerts administrators to how regulators plan to interpret federal laws. It was just such a “Dear Colleague” letter in 2011 from Catherine Lhamon, who headed the Office for Civil Rights under Obama and Biden, that urged schools to use the lowest possible level of evidence in sexual harassment or assault cases, to make it easier for people to request a remedy to perceived injustice.

“If you’re going to interpret the discrimination in much different and broader terms than ever before then you’re going to increase complaints,” Blew said. “It should be obvious there are certain interests that care about padding their Office of Civil Rights numbers.”

'Administrative Bloat'

In the face of rising Office for Civil Rights investigations, letters and complaints, schools have been forced to add more layers of administrators and attorneys. Those offices also grew during Biden’s term, when an emphasis on “diversity, equity and inclusion” departments and offices swelled higher education payrolls.

“It has led to administrative bloat, too, as tuition goes to deanlets and bureaucrats,” Manning said. “They often partner together with other entities on campus, and you have many bureaucrats who feed complaints.” 

In its January report, OCR reported that it had received 71,385 complaints during Biden’s term and had resolved 56,383 of them. But the backlog of complaints has grown, and in the 13 years covered by the report it was only during Trump’s first term that the office reported resolving more complaints than it received. At least one person who has filed numerous complaints with the OCR suspects that some of the backlog results from an unwillingness to tackle cases that do not fit progressive orthodoxy.

Mark Perry, a professor emeritus at the University of Michigan, who specializes in complaints challenging race- and gender-based scholarships, fellowships and other programs, said OCR has opened 423 investigations into his complaints since he started filing them in 2019. 

“I currently have nearly 300 complaints backlogged at OCR, some going back to 2019 and 2020 that have either never made it through the evaluation stage to being opened for investigation and others opened for investigation back in 2019, 2020, and 2021, etc. that have never been resolved,” he said. “Now it's possible I'm being targeted and slow-walked for being a repeat filer for complaints alleging discrimination against men and whites.”

Perry based that belief, in part, on a handwritten letter he received from an OCR employee in its Chicago branch in September 2023 in response to a Chronicle of Higher Education article about Perry’s filings. “OCR has no impetus, sadly, to advance your cases, total failure in HQ,” the letter said. “Your cases just sit with no activity.”

The delays are especially odd, in Perry’s opinion, given that he is a professional who accompanies his complaints with printed evidence of the specific grant or program he thinks should be curtailed or made available to all students. “My complaints are simple; they should only take a couple of months,” he told RCI.

Another more recent, consistent filer is the Equal Protection Project, launched by conservative Cornell Law School Professor William Jacobson, who runs the Legal Insurrection website. In 2025, the project has averaged an OCR complaint a week, and has filed 70 complaints since it began in February 2023.

Like Perry's, the project’s focus is on clear violations of the plain language of statues, Jacobson said. On April 1, the project filed a complaint against the Pennsylvania College of Technology, an affiliate of Pennsylvania State University, for 12 scholarships that allegedly “discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, and/or sex in violation of Title VI and Title IX, respectively.”

For now, it’s unclear what will happen to the thousands of investigations on the office’s books, or to future complaints like disability grievances filed by Almazan’s group. The laws require a direct interference with a student’s education to validate a complaint, a distinction drawn more by the courts than administrators and bureaucrats who give themselves wide latitude to pursue their own enforcement goals, experts said.

“Biden and the Democrats tend to tinker with the language, creating ‘subjective’ offenses that are a moving target and raise due-process concerns,” Manning said. “The courts have tried to rein it in.”

Even as it appears intent on limiting the Education Department's reach, the Trump administration has also signaled that it will not completely surrender the use of federal power to influence local schools. It has vowed  to root out antisemitism on college campuses, biological men competing against women in sports, and diversity, equity and inclusion programs the administration says violate the clear letter of discrimination laws.

On April 7, McMahon announced a special investigative office, staffed by the Education and Justice departments, to enforce “Title IX to protect female students and athletes.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 17:00

Are Foreigners Entitled To The Same Protest Rights As Natural American Citizens?

One of the primary platforms of Donald Trump's 2024 campaign was the strict control of foreign elements entering into the United States.  American voters overwhelmingly supported closed borders as well as the deportation of illegal migrants and disruptive migrant elements including those that received visas and green cards under the Biden Administration.  The political left, not surprisingly, has refused to accept that this is the majority view of the population as they continue to interfere with the migrant clean-up using whatever methods are at their disposal. 

The question of constitutional legality has come up often.  The very same people who, only a few years ago, were trying to silence any and all dissent on the Covid mandates and vaccines are suddenly concerned with the free speech rights of people who are not American citizens or those that obtained green card status through convenient circumstances (marriage as a fast track for citizenship).

In a recent blow to their position, an immigration judge in Louisiana ruled that the Trump administration can deport Mahmoud Khalil, a Columbia University graduate student and legal permanent resident who was detained last month for his role in violent campus protests against the war in Gaza.  Judge Jamee Comans said the government had “established clear and convincing evidence that he is removable”, supporting the determination that Khalil poses a national security risk for the United States.  Khalil was not charged with a specific crime. 

The leftist media maintains that the evidence against Khalil is "shaky at best" and that his green card, obtained in 2024 after his marriage to a woman out of Flint, Michigan in 2023 means he should have the same protest rights as any natural American citizen. 

Khalil is a Syrian born Palestinian, and it should be noted that according to Amnesty International protesters in Gaza are routinely arrested, tortured and executed by Hamas officials for crimes as minor as demanding that Hamas repair infrastructure or stop interfering with food deliveries.  In other words, the very government that Mahmoud Khalil is defending would murder him without a second thought if he tried the same thing in Gaza.  The hypocrisy of such immigrants fomenting unrest in the US is clear, but it's not necessarily a violation of the law.

Technically it is true that green card holders and migrants in general have the same free speech rights as native born Americans.  This is why Khalil's deportation is subject to due process.  However, just because an immigrant has free speech rights, it doesn't mean they can't be deported anyway.

According to the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, the US government has the right to “preserve the sociological and cultural balance of the United States” and deny foreign entry to the US based on a migrant's political ideology.  This means that the Trump Administration does in fact have the power to remove foreigners, even those with green cards, if they are seen as an ideological threat to the west. 

That is to say, migrants have free speech rights but the federal government also has the right to kick them out.  Is this contradictory?  Maybe, but it's also a fact of life for anyone wanting access to US soil.

Democrats claim the law no longer has standing because it is "73 years old" (the Bill of Rights is hundreds of years old and the age of a law is irrelevant).  They also say that later civil rights policies make the law obsolete.  But is this really true?  Maybe strict immigration laws are more important than ever in light of efforts by leftist politicians and NGOs working hand in hand to flood the US with disruptive foreign elements.

The political left has been engaged in a guerrilla war in which civil liberties are used as a shield to protect astroturf activism paid for by NGOs, along with deliberately destructive third world immigration.  The strategy is classically Marxist; use the rules of the opponent against him, while you have no rules of your own.

The Gaza protests are in large part simply a convenient vehicle for wider leftist disruption.  The hilarious mixture of LGBT, feminist and race activists into the Palestinian plight showcases how the woke movement often rides the coattails of whatever issue is convenient in order to steal the spotlight for their own agenda.  Is Mahmoud Khalil being made into an example as a warning to the political left?  Probably.   

There is certainly the ongoing risk of a slippery slope of governmental overreach.  Do the deportations stop with people like Mahmoud Khalil, reportedly participating in high profile civil disturbances?  Or, will this power be used against people who merely engage in peaceful criticism?  The idea that constitutional rights don't necessarily apply to everyone equally doesn't sit well with many Americans, but at this time in US history a line in the sand when it comes to migrants is necessary.  

The bottom line is, not every foreigner is entitled to US access.  Not every foreigner is entitled to the same rights as native born American citizens.  American society is not a lump of clay to be molded by any and all foreign activists that happen to come along.  There are civilizational boundaries and rules of decorum.  Immigrants should probably keep their heads down and remain thankful that they were allowed into the country at all. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 16:40

"The Autism Epidemic Is Running Rampant" - RFK Jr Addresses Latest CDC Report Showing 1-In-20 Boys Diagnosed

A report released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on April 15 showed that 1 in 31 children in America has autism.

The figures, which mark another jump in a long line of increases, stem from the CDC’s latest Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network survey published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The report prompted Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to say that “the autism epidemic is running rampant.”

“That’s up significantly from two years earlier and nearly five times higher than when the CDC first started running autism surveys in children born in 1992,” Kennedy said in an April 15 statement.

“Prevalence for boys is an astounding 1 in 20 and in California, it’s 1 in 12.5.”

“We need to move away from this ideology that the prevalence of autism increases are simply from better diagnosis, better recognition, or changing diagnostic criteria," RFK Jr began his address this morning.

“This epidemic denial has become a feature in the mainstream media, and it's based on an industry canard.” 

“There are people who don't want us to look at environmental exposures.” 

“Doctors and therapists in the past were not stupid.” 

“They weren't missing all these cases.”

The most important video on X today!

RFK Jr: “We need to move away from this ideology that the prevalence of autism increases are simply from better diagnosis, better recognition, or changing diagnostic criteria.”

“This epidemic denial has become a feature in the mainstream… pic.twitter.com/nHEHjikZCo

— End Tribalism in Politics (@EndTribalism) April 16, 2025

As Jeff Louderback reportsa for The Epoch Times, the previous ADDM report released in 2023 discovered that 1 in 36 8-year-old American children had autism in 2020. The April 15 survey reflects a 16.1 percent increase in two years.

The new ADDM report was conducted in 2022 across 16 sites in 14 states and surveyed 8-year-old children born in 2014.

The new autism prevalence is also 4.8 times higher than in the first ADDM survey 22 years ago, when 1 in 150 children had autism.

“The autism epidemic has now reached a scale unprecedented in human history because it affects the young,” Kennedy said in his April 15 statement.

“The risks and costs of this crisis are a thousand times more threatening to our country than COVID-19. Autism is preventable and it is unforgivable that we have not yet identified the underlying causes. We should have had these answers 20 years ago,” Kennedy added.

Autism Society of America spokeswoman Kristyn Roth told the Associated Press that more research is needed to find what causes autism, but she is alarmed about Kennedy’s approach.

“There is a deep concern that we are going backward and evaluating debunked theories,” Roth said.

Autism, or autism spectrum disorder (ASD), refers to a broad range of conditions characterized by challenges with social skills, repetitive behaviors, speech, and nonverbal communication, according to Autism Speaks.

“There are many different factors that have been identified that may make a child more likely to have ASD, including environmental, biologic, and genetic factors,” the HHS website reads.

The National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 established the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP), a no-fault system for compensating individuals injured by certain vaccines.

This eliminated the potential financial liability of vaccine manufacturers due to vaccine injury claims.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is sworn in as Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Oval Office in Washington on Feb. 13, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

In the early 1990s, just 1 in 10,000 children were diagnosed with autism. In the first decade of this century, the estimate rose to 1 in 150. In 2018, it was 1 in 44 before reaching 1 in 36 in 2020.

Last December, President Donald Trump said that he would also give Kennedy the freedom to investigate the potential link between vaccines and autism.

“When you look at some of the problems, when you look at what’s going on with disease and sickness in our country, something’s wrong,” Trump said in December.

“I think somebody has to find out. If you go back 25 years ago, you had very little autism.”

Kennedy has said for years that autism is likely tied to childhood vaccines.

The NIH supports and funds research into autism, as well as potential new vaccines.

Kennedy told The Epoch Times in September that he would revamp the NIH to focus on the causes of autism, autoimmune diseases, and neurodevelopmental diseases instead of developing drugs and serving as an incubator for pharmaceutical products.

In February, after the Senate confirmed Kennedy as health secretary, Trump established the Make America Healthy Again Commission, which the White House stated would investigate the “root causes of America’s escalating health crisis.”

At Trump’s April 10 cabinet meeting, Kennedy announced that HHS has “launched a massive testing and research effort that’s going to involve hundreds of scientists from around the world” to determine what has caused autism rates to spike in recent years.

“By September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic, and we'll be able to eliminate those exposures,” he noted.

For parents and vaccine safety advocates such as Scott Shoemaker and MaryJo Perry, extensively studying potential links between childhood vaccines and autism is long overdue.

Shoemaker told The Epoch Times that his son was diagnosed with autism at the age of 15 months.

“The bottom line is we want the truth,” said Shoemaker, who is president of Health Freedom Ohio. 

“We want safe products for our kids. We don’t want big pharma to just say vaccines are safe and effective.”

According to Children’s Health Defense, there has not been a double-blind placebo-controlled safety study on infant vaccines.

“That needs to happen,” Perry told The Epoch Times. “There is no liability and no accountability for pharmaceutical companies. That needs to change.”

Perry, who is president of Mississippi Parents for Vaccine Rights, said that all vaccines should undergo extensive safety studies and results should be “accurate and transparent.”

“If it’s good and safe, parents will use it,” she said. “You won’t have to coerce parents if it’s good and safe.”

Hard not to get emotional. We’ve got somebody who isn’t going to silence or shame mothers that don’t understand how their healthy child all of a sudden wasn’t anymore. Science is about following the facts and not ignoring inconvenient evidence that might disadvantage big…

— P.T. Ward (@HTWardish) April 16, 2025

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 16:20

US Tells Israel It Will Begin Drawdown Of Troops In Syria

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Pentagon officials have told their Israeli counterparts that the US will begin a phased withdrawal of its troops from Syria within two months, the Israeli news site Ynet reported on Tuesday.

A senior Israeli official said that the US withdrawal could be partial, meaning only some of the estimated 2,000 US troops in eastern Syria could leave. Reuters later reported that the US is planning to "consolidate" its presence in Syria and will likely reduce the number of troops in the country to about 1,000.

Israel is opposed to any drawdown or a full withdrawal of US troops from Syria, and the Ynet report said Israeli officials are working to prevent it over concerns related to Turkey.

Since the regime change that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which Israel supported, the Israeli military has invaded southern Syria and has been bombing military targets across the country.

Israel now appears focused on keeping Turkish forces out of central Syria, warning it would impede the Israeli military’s "operational freedom" in the country.

Israel recently bombed the T-4 air base in Tadmur, central Syria, amid reports that Turkey is planning to establish a military presence there, and Israeli officials said the airstrikes were meant as a “message” to Ankara.

One Israeli security source told Ynet that the attacks on the T-4 base were part of "a race against time" before "the Americans pack up and leave."

During the first Trump administration, Israel played a role in convincing President Trump to keep troops in Syria after he announced plans for a withdrawal. At the time, Israel didn’t want Iran or its allies, which included the Assad government, gaining a foothold in the areas currently occupied by the US, which include oil and gas fields.

The US backs the Kurdish-led SDF in eastern and northern Syria, which recently began handing over control of some areas in the northern Aleppo Governorate to government forces under an integration agreement with the Syrian government that’s led by the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

It remains there have been many 'false starts' and premature headlines announcing withdrawal, such as this 2018 NBC story...

The deal has eased tensions in northern Syria, ending fighting between the SDF and the Turkish-backed SNA, and was seen as a potential path to a US withdrawal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 15:45

Are Democrats Unintentionally Sabotaging Retailer Target

New high-frequency data on monthly store visits and consumer sentiment metrics reveal a slowdown in activity at retail giant Target. Interestingly, when the same data is applied across the broader retail industry, similar signs of softening are far less pronounced at other retailers, raising the question: Why is Target being hit harder?

One potential explanation lies in the political composition of Target's customer base. Data from the research firm Morning Consult showed a strong tilt toward Democratic-leaning consumers, a group currently exhibiting apocalyptic views on the economy via the highly skewed and laughable UMich survey.

5Y inflation expectations: Market vs Democrats pic.twitter.com/h3o9CDHIpQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 11, 2025

This wave of negative sentiment among Democratic-leaning consumers - driven in part by conspiracy-laden stories on platforms like BlueSky, MSNBC, CNN, and the unhinged show The View - could very well be influencing the spending habits of the rudderless party's consumer base. 

Goldman analysts Kate McShane, Mark Jordan, and others published a new note on Wednesday, "downgrading TGT to Neutral from Buy given concerns around seeing a recovery in growth for discretionary categories, more downside risk in EPS than upside given possible top-line deleverage and tariff risk, and recent data from HundredX and Placer indicating that TGT's sales may be slowing." 

We're taking high-frequency data from HundredX and Placer.ai a step further than the analysts, injecting Morning Consult's data to understand better who exactly shops at Target: "Walmart is more popular among Republicans, while more Democrats see Target in a favorable light."

McShane explained: 

HundredX and Placer data indicate TGT's sales may be slowing. We analyzed monthly visitation data using Placer for the broadlines category, including TGT, through mid April. As shown in Exhibit 1, while average visits per location (y/y) were largely positive in Apr' 25-to-date, TGT came in at -5.4%. TGT's trends have lagged behind select peers (BJ, COST, and WMT) since Aug '24, with the gap widening sequentially in Apr' 25-to-date: Goldman

Exhibit 1: Placer monthly visitation trends for broadlines came in largely positive in April-to-date, aside from TGT at -5.4%

We must note that Goldman analysts did not blend politics into their report. 

McShane then used NPI (Net Purchase Intent) and NPS (Net Purchase Score)—key consumer sentiment metrics - to find that both metrics declined significantly year over year. 

"Specifically, as of Mar '25, TGT's NPI is -9%, lower than its 3-year average of -2% and Mar '24 NPI of -3%; TGT's NPS is 30, lower than its 3-year average of 43 and its Mar '24 NPS of 39," McShane said. 

Notice HundredX's NPI measured across BJ, Costco, Target, Walmart, and Dollar General showed that consumer sentiment at Target was the worst of all retailers—and this might only make sense given that we established earlier that Democrats make up the majority of shoppers at the retailer. 

Similar findings for NPS. 

Target's NPI across three household income levels (<$50K, $50K-$100K, >$100K) aggressively tumbled, beginning with the election of Trump and into 2025. 

Could the Democratic Party's infowar to sway their voter base about an imminent 'Great Depression' have an unintended consequence (dial back spending) of hitting retailers heavily frequented by Democrats? 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 15:25

Stocks Puke As Fed Chair Powell Raises Specter Of Stagflation, Awaiting "Greater Clarity"

Update (1330ET): Key highlights from Powell's prepared remarks:

Powell said: "tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation."

"The inflationary effects could also be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Powell again stressed the central bank's focus on preventing potential tariff-driven price hikes from triggering a more persistent rise in inflation.

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said.

Powell added that policymakers would balance their dual responsibilities of fostering maximum employment and stable prices, “keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.”

Powell raised the spectre of stagflation:

"We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close."

This differs from Waller earlier this week: 

Should the Fed face both a rapidly slowing economy and still elevated inflation, “the risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation.”

As they seek greater certainty about how President Donald Trump’s economic policies, especially on trade, will affect the US economy, Powell and other Fed policymakers have expressed support for holding rates steady.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” Powell said.

The remarks reinforce a message Powell has repeatedly emphasized, including most recently on April 4: Fed officials are in no hurry to change the central bank’s benchmark policy rate.

Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro quipped:

“Recession odds are climbing even further as Powell pushes back the timing of cuts.”

Stocks tumbled on the prepared remarks:

*  *  *

Which economy will Fed Chair Powell choose to discuss this afternoon as, for the second time in less than two weeks, he will weigh in with his sense of what's in store for Americans on inflation and jobs, and what the central bank may do about it if they veer off course.

Will it be the 'soft' survey based economy (with this morning's collapse in the New York Business Leaders survey as the latest example) or the 'hard' data based economy (with this morning's surge in retail sales and manufacturing production showing strength)...

The last time he spoke (on April 4th - 2 days after Liberation Day), Powell voiced essentially a wait-and-see approach, saying "it is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy."

Marcin Kazmierczak, Co-founder & COO of RedStone:

"Markets will be hyper-focused on Powell's inflation commentary and rate cut signals, with any acknowledgment of economic growth concerns potentially triggering significant market reactions."

As Reuters reports, earlier this week Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if Trump continues to peel back tariffs to a lower baseline, the central bank would do well to hang tight on interest rates in the first half of this year and perhaps cut gradually in the second half as tariff-elevated inflation subsides. 

If Trump sticks to higher tariffs, Waller said, the unemployment rate could jump and the Fed would need to cut more aggressively.

Other Fed policymakers have been more hawkish, focusing on signs that short-term inflation expectations have surged and could, as St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem put it, "seep" into longer-term expectations, potentially forcing the Fed to keep rates high or even raise them further.

It's not clear which view is closer to Powell's, or in how much detail he might articulate which way he leans.

"Besides the guidance on rates (where a probability close to 80% is discounted for a rate cut in June), the market will be looking for cues about the Fed's possibilities to deal with market turmoil," says Commerzbank's head of interest rates strategy, Michael Leister in a note this morning.

Of course, President Trump has been very public about his views on what he thinks Powell should do... demanding rate-cuts to prop up markets/economy during the interregnum between tariff teror and tax-cut euphoria.

Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live before the Economic Club of Chicago here (due to start at 1330ET):

Read Powell's Prepared Remarks here...

Thank you for the introduction. I am looking forward to our conversation, Professor Rajan. First, I will briefly discuss the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.

At the Fed, we are always focused on the dual-mandate goals given to us by Congress: maximum employment and stable prices. Despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks, the U.S. economy is still in a solid position. The labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal but is running a bit above our 2 percent objective.

Recent Economic Data

Turning to the incoming data, we will get the initial reading on first-quarter GDP in a couple of weeks. The data in hand so far suggest that growth has slowed in the first quarter from last year's solid pace. Despite strong motor vehicle sales, overall consumer spending appears to have grown modestly. In addition, strong imports during the first quarter, reflecting attempts by businesses to get ahead of potential tariffs, are expected to weigh on GDP growth.

Surveys of households and businesses report a sharp decline in sentiment and elevated uncertainty about the outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns. Outside forecasts for the full year are coming down and, for the most part, point to continued slowing but still positive growth. We are closely tracking incoming data as households and businesses continue to digest these developments.

In the labor market, during the first three months of the year, nonfarm payrolls grew by an average of 150,000 jobs a month. While job growth has slowed relative to last year, the combination of low layoffs and lower labor force growth has kept the unemployment rate in a low and stable range. Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers has remained just above 1, near its pre-pandemic level. Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation. Overall, the labor market appears to be in solid condition and broadly in balance and is not a significant source of inflationary pressure.

As for our price-stability mandate, inflation has significantly eased from its pandemic highs of mid-2022 without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has frequently accompanied efforts to bring down high inflation. Progress on inflation continues at a gradual pace, and recent readings remain above our 2 percent objective. Estimates based on data released last week show that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in March and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.6 percent.

Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain. As we learn more, we will continue to update our assessment. The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth. Both survey- and market-based measures of near-term inflation expectations have moved up significantly, with survey participants pointing to tariffs. Survey measures of longer-term inflation expectations, for the most part, appear to remain well anchored; market-based breakevens continue to run close to 2 percent.

Monetary Policy

As we gain a better understanding of the policy changes, we will have a better sense of the implications for the economy, and hence for monetary policy. Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation. The inflationary effects could also be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. As we act to meet that obligation, we will balance our maximum-‑employment and price-stability mandates, keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans. We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.

Conclusion

As that great Chicagoan Ferris Bueller once noted, "Life moves pretty fast." For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. We continue to analyze the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We understand that elevated levels of unemployment or inflation can be damaging and painful for communities, families, and businesses. We will continue to do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 15:15

Total Southwest Border Apprehensions Last Month Lower Than First 2 Days Of March 2024: CBP

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

There was a historic drop in the apprehension of illegal immigrants at America’s southwest border last month, according to new data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), as the Trump administration continues to step up immigration enforcement.

“In March 2025, USBP apprehended 7,181 illegal aliens crossing the southwest border between ports of entry,” the agency said in an April 14 statement, referring to U.S. Border Patrol (USBP).

“This constitutes a 14 percent decrease from February 2025 when USBP apprehended 8,346 aliens, and a 95 percent decrease from March 2024 when USBP apprehended 137,473 aliens.”

Pete Flores, acting Commissioner of CBP, said the border patrol’s southwest border apprehensions “for the entire month of March 2025 were lower than the first two days of March 2024.”

Nationwide, border patrol saw 264 apprehensions per day in March. That’s lower than February’s daily numbers, which were at 330, the “lowest nationwide average apprehensions in CBP history” at the time, according to the CBP.

President Donald Trump referenced the achievement in an April 15 Truth Social post, writing in all-caps, “Border crossings hit all-time record low in March!”

Last month’s average of nationwide daily apprehensions was 94 percent lower than the 4,488 apprehensions per day registered in March of last year, under the Biden administration.

Earlier this month, Flores said that “under the leadership of President Trump and [Homeland] Secretary Noem, the administration has taken bold, decisive action to restore control at the border. Border Patrol agents are empowered like never before to shut down unlawful entry and protect American lives.”

“The message is clear: the border is closed to illegal crossings, and for those still willing to test our resolve, know this—you will be prosecuted, and you will be deported.”

In March, the agency launched the CBP Home mobile app, allowing illegal immigrants to notify the government of their intent to leave the United States.

The app has been updated with an added functionality enabling illegal immigrants to notify authorities that they have exited the country.

“These features are vital to comply with Executive Order 14159, ‘Protecting the American People Against Invasion,’ ensuring an orderly process for aliens to communicate their departure plans,” according to CBP.

Under the Biden administration, the agency’s CBP One app allowed illegal immigrants outside the United States to schedule appointments at U.S. ports of entry. Trump ended the app on his first day in office.

Tackling Illegal Immigrants

The Trump administration is tightening the monitoring of those in the United States unlawfully.

On Friday, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) asked illegal immigrants to register with the federal government, after a court victory allowed the policy to be implemented.

Illegal immigrants who have been in the country for over 30 days were required to register by April 11, including being fingerprinted. Those entering the United States after April 11 have 30 days from their arrival to register.

Failure to register is an offense potentially punishable by imprisonment, fines, or both.

The rule does not apply to certain people, such as those who have applied for or have already obtained permanent residency, individuals with a valid work authorization, and those subjected to deportation proceedings.

“President Trump and I have a clear message for those in our country illegally: leave now. If you leave now, you may have the opportunity to return and enjoy our freedom and live the American dream,” Noem said in an April 11 statement.

“The Trump administration will enforce all our immigration laws—we will not pick and choose which laws we will enforce. We must know who is in our country for the safety and security of our homeland and all Americans.”

The White House recently revealed that it has taken action against illegal immigrants flagged as security risks who were paroled into the United States.

Immigration parole allows an illegal immigrant to temporarily live in the United States and potentially work without being subject to deportation.

Over 6,300 individuals who were paroled in or after 2023 and who have criminal records or were listed in the FBI’s terrorist screening database had their parole terminated as of April 11, the White House said.

Meanwhile, the CBP is pushing ahead with the border wall construction project. In mid-March, the agency awarded the first border wall contract under Trump’s second term.

This month, Noem issued a DHS waiver of environmental laws to expedite construction of approximately 2.5 miles of new wall in California.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 15:05

'Depression' Narrative Bust: Atlanta Fed 'Adjusts' Away GDP Plunge Forecast

Who could have seen that coming?

Well us, literally!!

One month ago the world was stunned when the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast slashed US GDP Q1 estimates to down almost 4%.

This sparked every leftist, establishment talking-head to leap to their feet and decry Trump's policies as heralding the next Great Depression.

There was just a little problem...

As we detailed immediately after The Atlanta Fed's report hit, it's not the economy, it's gold stupid!!!

... we subsequently learned that the plunge in GDP was the direct result of a spike in imports, which subtract from GDP.

As it turns out, and as Goldman economist Manuel Abecasis explained this morning, most of the widening in the trade deficit since November was driven by higher gold imports. 

That's right: the same spike in gold that indicates something is (perhaps terminally) broken with the financial system as we have now seen a record scramble for physical gold, also just happens to be slamming the US economy!

And sure enough, having 'adjusted' for the massive surge in gold imports, The Atlanta Fed quietly revised their forecast for Q1 GDP to just a 0.1% decline...

So, no economic collapse. No financial hellscape. No 'next great depression'?

And just like that, the hue and cry from the academics, politicians, and talking-heads is gone... like Keyser Soze. 

This is alot more insidious than it seems, because every single liberal pundit ran with these numbers to push a narrative. If you wanted to artificially crash an economy, this is how you would try to do it.

— P.T. Ward (@HTWardish) April 16, 2025

Was the data ever that bad? Or did The Atlanta Fed just take its cues from the University of Michigan  and its survey respondents?

Or were The Usual Suspects attempting to manipulate a narrative once again?

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 14:25

'Staggering' Number Of IRS Employees To Take Buyout: 'This Is Enormous'

25 percent of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) employees are are preparing to take buyout offered by the Trump administration and resign from the agency, according to a report.

CNN, first reporting the “staggering” figure, notes that 22,000 of the IRS’s 90,000 employees plan to accept buyout offers and resign. IRS staff faced a Tuesday morning deadline to opt into the latest “deferred resignation” buyouts.

“This is enormous,” sources told the anti-Trump news outlet.

In the initial round, approximately 4,700 IRS employees, or 5% of the workforce, accepted the buyout offer.

“I’m hearing a lot of people accepted the deferred resignation,” an IRS employee told CNN. “The workplace is toxic these days. Morale is low. People try to come in and think positively, but they don’t make it through a full workday without negativity, even in conversation with other employees, or getting the next email in their inbox with bad news.”

When recently asked by CNN about further staff reductions at the IRS, a Treasury Department said further cuts would be required to offset the “wasteful Biden-era hiring surges.”

“Staffing reductions that are currently being considered at the IRS will be part of — and driven by — process improvements and technological innovations that will allow the IRS to collect revenue and serve taxpayers more effectively,” the spokesperson said.

The IRS buyouts are part of the Trump administration’s broader mission, led by the Department of Government Efficiency, to reduce federal spending by at least $1 trillion and streamline regulations amid a growing bureaucracy.

The CNN report, released on today’s tax-filing deadline, comes as the IRS faces its busiest week of the year.

The IRS announced Monday that Arkansas residents and businesses affected by recent severe storms, tornadoes, and floods have until November 3 to file their income taxes.

“As a result, affected individuals and businesses will have until Nov. 3, 2025, to file returns and pay any taxes that were originally due during this period,” the IRS statement said. “In addition, penalties for failing to make payroll and excise tax deposits due on or after April 2, 2025, and before April 17, 2025, will be abated if the deposits are made by April 17, 2025.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 14:05

China's 'Surprise' New Trade Rep A Likely Effort At Backchanneling 'Breakthrough' With Trump

We reported earlier in the day that China has opened the door for reengaging President Trump in trade talks, which has involved Beijing laying out a set of preconditions for resuming negotiations before the tariff war spirals further.

Key to this last-minute attempt at a reset and rare bright spot of late, as we highlighted, is that China has just appointed a new top trade negotiator in a likely sign Beijing is seeking a final breakthrough moment with Washington. Regional Asian media is confirming that Li Chenggang will replace 59-year-old Wang Shouwen, the latter who became known for deep involvement negotiations for the 2020 US-China trade deal as a former assistant commerce minister.

Li Chenggang, a former assistant commerce minister and WTO ambassador

58-year old Li has served as China’s ambassador to the Geneva-based World Trade Organization (WTO) from 2021. He's also held several key jobs in the commerce ministry since 2010.

Has new blood been brought in to break the impasse in negotiations? Time for he and Commerce Secretary Lutnick to sit in a room and drill down?... It appears time for a quicker route of backchanneling the trade crisis... away from the cameras.

One analyst, Alfredo Montufar-Helu, who is senior adviser to the China Center at US-based research group The Conference Board, has observed of Li, "Probably his experience in Geneva means that he has established linkages with key stake holders – their governments including the US." The same analyst also told Reuters:

"It might be that in the view of China's top leadership, given how tensions have continued escalating, they need someone else to break the impasse... and finally start negotiating."

Rather than just a standard or career advancement move, "This is certainly a very abrupt and potentially disruptive change given how quickly trade tensions have escalated," Montufar-Helu said.

Prior to government service, Li obtained a bachelor's degree in law from Peking University and a master’s degree in the economics of law from the University of Hamburg in Germany, SCMP has reviewed. According to more from CNBC:

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is the lead negotiator on China-U.S. trade, according to official documents. Previously, China’s former vice premier Liu He had held a similar role where he facilitated the trade talks with Trump’s last administration and eventually signed the Phase-One deal.

“Wang was a key supporting player last time around because of his position,” said Kenneth Jarrett, senior advisor at Albright Stonebridge Group. “Presumably the same will be true of Li if and when talks get off the ground,” he added.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday in some of the latest heated remarks, China's Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), warned that "We firmly oppose the US practice of tariff barriers and trade bullying."

"It violates the economic laws and the principles of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), has a serious impact on the world economic order, and drags down the recovery of the world economy," he said.

This after on Tuesday White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt declared that "The ball is in China’s court: China needs to make a dal with us, we don’t have to make a deal with them" - and now with China saying it will ignore the Trump White House's "numbers game" and fight till the end amid certain goods reaching a 245% tariff as of Wednesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 13:45

Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through, Benefits From Solid Foreign Demand

After last week's basis trade collapse (which we now know has already claimed several relative value multistrat hedge funds), many were dreading the outcome of today's 20Y auction, a reopening of 19-Year, 10-Month cusip UJ5. It turned out they have nothing to fear.

The $13BN auction priced at 1:01pm ET at a high yield of 4.810%, up sharply from last month's 4.632% and the highest since February; more importantly it stopped through the When Issued 4.814% by 0.4bps, the second consecutive stop through (if fractionally weaker than last month) and 3rd in the past 4 months.

It wasn't just the headline: the Bid to Cover was 2.63, which while down from last month's 2.78 was comfortably above the six-auction average of 2.57.

But like last week, the internals were most closely watched because in a time when there was virtually no Direct demand for US paper (amid the basis trade unwind), the composition of today's takedown distribution was sure to be a buzz if there were any outliers. In the end, there would be no buzz because there were no surprises: Indirects took down a decent 70.7%, the highest since August and naturally above the six-auction average; As for Directs, unlike last week's collapse, today they took down a healty 12.3% - yes still the lowest since November, but hardly a single digit affair like we saw last week. Finally Dealers were left holding 17.0%, just fractionally above the 15.3% average, and in line with recent auctions.

Overall, this was a remarkable solid 20Y auction, and one which certainly brushed away concerns that foreigners are boycotting US Treasury auctions, if only for now. As for the secondary market, that's a different story.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 13:29

Bessent's Grand Strategy: Use Tariff Negotiations To Isolate China From The Rest Of The World

Yesterday, president Trump laid out the stakes in the ever-escalating trading war between the US and China, in typical laconic fashion: "We may want countries to choose between us and China" (a topic discussed further here), with the White House adding that "The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us."

This strategy, of forcing the world into "us (or US) vs them" camps first emerged last week when Trump reduced reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, something we highlighted at the time.

This is actually a very smart move: clubbing the entire world against China https://t.co/fsBagdFRRR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 9, 2025

A few days later, this now appears to be the official strategy in the global trade war.

As the WSJ reports, the Trump admin plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. trading partners to limit their dealings with China, according to people with knowledge of the conversations.

The idea, as we laid out in not so many words, is to extract commitments from U.S. trading partners to isolate China’s economy in exchange for reductions in trade and tariff barriers imposed by the White House. US officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries (the so-called "transshipment" loophole), prevent Chinese firms from locating in their territories to avoid U.S. tariffs, and not absorb China’s cheap industrial goods into their economies.

Those measures are meant to put a final stake in China’s already sinking economy (which somewhat ironically got a boost in the first quarter as its export partners front-loaded purchased goods ahead of the tariff price surge which is already in place and which will put a deep freeze on China's manufacturing empire) and force Beijing to the negotiating table with less leverage ahead of potential talks between Trump and President Xi Jinping. The exact demands could vary widely by nation, given their degree of involvement with the Chinese economy.

US officials have already presented the idea in early talks with some countries according to WSJ sources, who added that Trump himself hinted at the strategy on Tuesday, telling the Spanish-language program “Fox Noticias” he would consider making countries choose between the US and China in response to a question about Panama deciding not to renew its role in the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s global infrastructure program for developing nations.

Trump gives ULTIMATUM to Latin America:

Choose between USA and China

‘They SHOULD do that’

What should Latin America do? pic.twitter.com/MWVq2AJXJj

— RT (@RT_com) April 15, 2025

According to the WSJ, the brain behind the strategy is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has taken a leading role in the trade negotiations since Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most nations—but not China—on April 9.

Bessent pitched the idea to Trump during an April 6 meeting at Mar-a-Lago, the president’s club in Florida, said people familiar with the discussion, saying that extracting concessions from U.S. trading partners could prevent Beijing and its companies from avoiding U.S. tariffs, export controls and other economic measures.

The tactic is part of a strategy conceived by Bessent to isolate the Chinese economy that has gained traction among Trump officials recently. Debates over the scope and severity of U.S. tariffs are ongoing, but officials largely appear to agree with Bessent’s China plan.

It involves cutting China off from the U.S. economy with tariffs and potentially even cutting Chinese stocks out of U.S. exchanges. Bessent didn’t rule out the administration trying to delist Chinese stocks in a recent interview with Fox Business. Still, the ultimate goal of the administration’s China policy isn’t yet clear.

Bessent has also said there is still room for talks on a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China. Such talks would have to involve Trump and Xi. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt read a new statement from Trump during Tuesday’s press briefing suggesting a deal with China isn’t imminent.

“The ball is in China’s court,” Leavitt said when reading Trump’s statement. “China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them. China wants what we have…the American consumer.”

Indeed it does, as do all the countries that China uses for tolling and/or transshipment, so if the White House truly cracked down on all possible ports of entry to US consumers, who account for 70% of the roughly $30 trillion in US GDP, then China will have no choice but to either concede, or pursue two other approaches which we laid out before: devalue the currency or unleash a massive fiscal stimulus.

China has three options:

1. Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands
2. Devalue the yuan by 20-40%
3. Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion) which will push its debt off the chart

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 4, 2025

It also isn’t clear that the anti-China line has entered into negotiations with all nations. Some countries haven’t heard demands from U.S. negotiators related to China, although negotiations remain in early stages. Many expect the Trump administration to raise China-related demands sooner or later.

Bessent has shown his desire for anti-China pledges from U.S. trading partners before. In late February, he said that Mexico had offered to match U.S. tariffs on China as part of negotiations over Trump’s tariffs on Mexico imposed because of the fentanyl trade. Bessent called Mexico’s offer a “nice gesture,” but the idea didn’t find much traction with the administration.

Since then, Bessent has taken a more central role in trade negotiations, assuming a lead in talks over reciprocal tariffs after Trump announced his 90-day pause on April 9. The Treasury secretary is slated to meet with Japan’s economic revitalization minister today and has laid out a list of nations he thinks could soon reach deals with the U.S., including Japan, the U.K., Australia, South Korea and India.

Of course, China isn't waiting for the trap to close in on it, and is conducting its own trade diplomacy. This week, Xi traveled to Vietnam, a key U.S. trading partner hard-hit by Trump’s tariffs, and signed dozens of economic pledges with the Hanoi government, although at the same time Vietnam has hinted it could balance out its trade balance with the US by purchasing substantial military equipment from the US.

China views Trump’s reciprocal trade gambit as an opportunity, Peter Harrell, the former senior director for international economics on former President Joe Biden’s National Security Council, said on a panel discussion Tuesday at Georgetown Law.

But China’s ability to counteract U.S. trade policies is limited, Harrell said. While the U.S. remains a “massive net importer,” China is reducing its imports from the rest of the world and focusing on self-sufficiency. The problem, as Michael Pettis has laid out, is that China is years if not decades behind having a vibrant consumer class of its own. Which only leaves mercantilism for now.

1/4
Because the only sustainable way to rebalance the Chinese economy towards a greater role for consumption in driving demand requires that household income, including transfers, rise faster than GDP, it is good news that...https://t.co/W9sv8XBx15

— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) April 16, 2025

And that's why Beijing is scrambling to inflict as much financial damage on the US as possible - up to and including dumping US Treasuries in hopes of sending the dollar tumbling and prompting narratives about "the end of the US dollar reserve status" while maintaining the impression that all is well domestically as discussed here.

China “isn’t going to replace the U.S. as a source of demand for the products that a bunch of these developing countries…make,” Harrell said. “So the economics of this are going to prove challenging for China, but I think we see them playing the politics of this reasonably savvily.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 13:05

Carney Capitulates: Canada Waives Retaliatory Tariffs On US-Made Cars And Trucks

The first skirmish in the US-China trade war just concluded and John Carney is left licking his wounds.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government will allow automakers to import US-manufactured cars and trucks without tariffs, as long as the companies continue to build cars in Canada, and continued with previously announced expansions. Which of course, they all will vow to do - after all, there is no downside to a promise - meaning Canada just conceded to a key Trump demands.

Last week, Carney put retaliatory tariffs of as much as 25% on vehicles made in the US, effectively matching an earlier move by US President Donald Trump on foreign autos.

The move provides relief from the trade war to companies including General Motors and Stellantis that have assembly plants in Ontario but still export large quantities of vehicles from the US into Canada.

Commenting on the capitulation, Rabobank's Michael Every writes that "Canada will now let automakers import US-assembled cars and trucks tariff-free if they preserve domestic manufacturing. This isn’t being heralded as a Carney “retreat” and “fold”, of course. But in economic statecraft terms, it’s clear Canada had, and has, no real choice."

“Our counter-tariffs won’t apply if they continue to produce, continue to employ, continue to invest in Canada,” Carney told reporters at a news conference. But if a manufacturer cuts production or investment in Canada, the number of tariff-free vehicles it will be permitted to import will be reduced, Canada’s Finance Department said in a news release.

François-Philippe Champagne, Canada’s finance minister, did not specify in his statement exactly how many U.S.-made cars and trucks each of the five major automakers would be allowed to import without tariffs. But his statement suggested that those numbers would be linked to Canadian manufacturing: “The number of tariff-free vehicles a company is permitted to import will be reduced if there are reductions in Canadian production or investment.”

While the great majority of Canadian-made cars and trucks end up in the United States, Trump has repeatedly said that he wants carmakers to move all of their manufacturing to the United States, a move widely seen in Canada as a direct assault on the country’s largest export aside from oil and gas.

Auto trade between the United States and Canada has become tightly integrated since the two countries signed a trade deal 60 years ago that eased the flow of vehicles and related goods across the border.

Only Toyota and Honda, which account for about two-thirds of Canadian auto production, are currently operating at or near full capacity in Canada.

Stellantis recently stopped renovating a factory in the Toronto suburb of Brampton that would have made gasoline and electric Jeeps, in what the company described as a pause. Its larger plant, in Windsor, Ontario, is in the middle of a two-week shutdown that was induced by the U.S. tariffs.

Ford’s factory in Oakville, Ontario, was closed for a now-abandoned plan to convert it for electric vehicles. It is now retooling to make large pickups. And General Motors announced that it would largely shut down production of a poor-selling electric van made in Ingersoll, Ontario, until October.

But the winning blow in this particular trade war battle came from Japanese media outlet Nikkei which reported that Honda Motor is looking at shifting some of its auto production from Canada and Mexico into the US, with a goal of having 90% of its US vehicles sales produced locally.

Honda currently builds CR-V and Civic vehicles at a plant in Alliston, Ontario, and last year it announced a C$15 billion ($10.8 billion) long-term plan to build out an electric-vehicle supply chain in Canada — with significant help from taxpayers.

Anita Anand, the industry minister, was scheduled to meet with the head of Honda’s Canadian division on Tuesday, according to a statement. “We are in close contact with the company, and Honda has communicated that no such production decisions affecting Canadian operations have been made, and are not being considered at this time,” her office said by email.

A Honda spokesperson said by email that the plant “will operate at full capacity for the foreseeable future and no changes are being considered at this time.”

Carney, currently campaigning for the national election on April 28, told reporters that he and other government ministers have had a number of conversations with the executives of global automakers.

“We are very seized with the issues” around the auto tariffs, Carney said, pointing to a campaign promise he made to set up a C$2 billion fund to help strengthen the Canadian auto supply chain. Whoever wins the election will need to negotiate with Trump on a broader strategy to resolve the tariff war, he said.

Canada currently has 25% counter-tariffs on about C$60 billion worth of US products, aside from autos. Those taxes are hitting a wide range of US steel and aluminum products, plus items such as tools, computers and consumer goods.

The exemptions announced Tuesday will provide a break to Canadian businesses that rely on US inputs, as well to institutions such as hospitals, long-term care facilities and fire departments, the government said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 11:55

"Markets Have To Choose Between The US And China"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

John Authers at Bloomberg just ran a piece titled ‘This Passover, Everyone Has Questions’. His annual tradition of asking four questions, as in that ancient ceremony, didn’t start with the obvious one: “Why is this market different from all other markets?” But when the 30-year Japanese bond can fall 11bps on the day, most traditional takes on what is going on look, well, ‘unleavened’. In keeping with the Passover theme, it’s also important to stress we have four kinds of analysts’ takes on what’s going via the questions they ask about it: the Wise (“Why is this happening?”); the Wicked (“What has this got to do with me/my view?”); the Simple (“What?”); and the Ones Who Don’t Know How to Ask. Which analyst are you?

To the answer: this market is different from all other markets because in all other markets we assume there is one global economy within which all goods, services, and capital flow, with one single global reserve currency, the US dollar. Now, we might be witnessing an Exodus from it.

President Trump just said: “The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us,” thrilling Bloomberg, which interpreted this as a trade-war off-ramp. Not noted by them, because it doesn’t fit that narrative, is he added, “We may want countries to choose between us and China.”

Of course, nobody wants to choose. But that doesn’t mean you don’t then become the chosen people via your inaction. And some are choosing without thinking about the consequences.

As Russia and the US talk about joint energy projects in the Arctic, Greenland says it wants to move closer to China on trade, snubbing both the US and Europe. Ironically, that shows it’s culturally European, not North American, in being bewilderingly out of touch with the realpolitik around it and playing poker with no hand at all.

In the Middle East, it’s clear which way the energy-rich Saudis and UAE lean (to the US), but things are fluid as the Pentagon speeds up munitions deliveries to Israel while stating it will withdraw its troops from Syria, and White House envoy Witkoff offers Obama-esque framing of a proposed new nuclear deal to Iran.

Australia and New Zealand say they don’t have to choose… as following a PLA-Navy cruiser sailing round the Tasman, a Russian request for the use of an Indonesian airbase placing Oz in striking distance was rejected by Jakarta rather than any Antipodean ability to project power in their own backyard. So, who can do it for them, and for what quid pro quo? (Meanwhile, panic over and back to election policies targeting higher house prices for the main parties in Australia.)

US Vice President Vance gave a speech in which he came out as a Gaullist(!), arguing Europe should have helped the US see it was stupid to invade Iraq in 2003, and said it can’t be a ‘permanent security vassal’ of the US. Just an economic one?

Vance also stated he expects a “great” UK trade deal because President Trump loves the place. Yet the UK -- which just bailed out British Steel from a Chinese owner, then heard a minister propose it could be sold to another Chinese firm(!) -- saw PM Starmer agree to mirror EU trading standards which will clash with those the US will insist on in any US-Anglo deal. The British and Greenlanders apparently went to the same card school.

Meanwhile, the EU reportedly expects most US tariffs to stay as trade negotiations make little progress. Perhaps the US is expecting Europe to see things differently after others sign up, with Japan aiming for early results from its US trade talks starting today. That would be a US ace.

At the same time, Canada will now let automakers import US-assembled cars and trucks tariff-free if they preserve domestic manufacturing. This isn’t being heralded as a Carney “retreat” and “fold”, of course. But in economic statecraft terms, it’s clear Canada had, and has, no real choice.

On the other hand, China halted planned deliveries of Boeing planes and Hong Kong Post has stopped sending mail to the US… as the US launched a trade probe on critical minerals and placed export controls on Nvidia selling chips to China (how will they stop them getting there via transshipment?) while flagging a 21% tariff on Mexican tomatoes. That sounds like a salsa significant trade conflict ahead.

On the planes front, China can of course buy from Airbus – and increase US-EU trade tensions with it. Or Beijing can push forward the roll-out of its domestic COMAC planes – which may then mysteriously ‘struggle’ to get safety certification for flights to the US/West (**cough** non-tariff barriers **cough**)… and the skies will, like the Red Sea past and present, be parted.

Liberalising trade, yet still hitting markets, President Trump also signed an executive order directing the FDA to allow more states to import medicines directly from countries that sell them at lower prices, following the lead set by Florida buying from Canada in January 2024. With the US paying around 3 times more for branded medicines than other OECD members, this could bring down prices significantly. Of course, looming 25% tariffs run in the other direction while aimed at incentivizing the build-out of domestic production… presumably alongside other economic statecraft measures to explain to firms that “because markets” and three-times multiples are no longer how this will work ahead.

Moreover, underlining that what starts with tariffs and trade spreads to capital and other areas, Congressional Republicans are proposing legislation that would penalize holders of US financial assets for anyone from a country that imposes a “discriminatory” tax, like the Canadian —and proposed EU— digital services tax. A withholding tax of 5% would be imposed, rising by 5 percentage points for next three years to a maximum of 20%.

Overarching this all, a recently released White House statement from the ‘Endless Frontiers Retreat’ notes:

“American progress in critical technologies will make us the global partner of choice… [but] we must safeguard US intellectual property… [and] prevent rival nations from infiltrating our infrastructure and supply chains, as well as from embedding themselves in the infrastructure of our allies… [and] enforce export controls and other measures that keep American frontier technologies out of competitors’ hands… The Golden Age of American innovation is on our horizon, if we choose it… the task ahead of us is to adapt to new realities without destroying the American way of life or disinheriting the American worker. We seek, in the most basic terms, to secure our economy, restore our middle class, and uphold America as the planet’s best home for innovators.”

Can the US keep innovating and deregulating its way out of its current problems?

On the other hand, Chinese data showed Q1 GDP +5.4% y-o-y vs. 5.2% expected despite the q-o-q figure only being 1.2% vs. 1.4%, with retail sales 5.9% vs. 4.3% expected (even as imports were sharply lower!), industrial production 7.7% vs. 5.9% consensus, and property investment -9.9%. Of course, markets rallied despite this picture of a mercantilist policy that doesn’t add to global growth.

There are a lot of bitter herbs, and pills, for countries, industries, firms, individuals, and markets to swallow in having to choose between the US and China; and in getting economic statecraft, not ‘free markets’ policy, telling us what we ‘matzah’ do.

Regardless, it may be choose or be chosen, people.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 11:40

Teen Murder Suspect Karmelo Anthony Released On Reduced Bail, Claims "Self Defense"

Public outrage over the Karmelo Anthony case is growing with a recent court decision to dramatically reduce the teen suspect's bail from $1 million to $250,000, of which only 10% must be paid to secure the suspect's release. 

Judge Angela Tucker of the 199th District Court in Collin County (pictured below) significantly reduced track meet stabbing suspect Karmelo Anthony's bond and placed him under house arrest.  Anthony, a 17-year-old student at Frisco Centennial High School, was then released from jail Monday afternoon.   Anthony was arrested and charged with murder in the death of 17-year-old Austin Metcalf at the UIL District 11-5A championship track meet at Frisco ISD's Kuykendall Stadium.

The teen was represented by Dallas defense attorney Mike Howard at the hearing. Howard initially asked the court to reduce the bond amount to $150,000. After the hearing, Howard said the $250,000 bond imposed by the judge was "fair," in a press conference. 

"Bond, as the judge said, is not supposed to be an instrument of oppression, it's not supposed to keep people in jail, it's not supposed to punish," Howard said. "It is to ensure that a person shows up to court, complies with all conditions and it's supposed to keep the community safe. This is a large and substantial bond and I think the judge has rightly imposed reasonable conditions that will ensure both Karmelo's and the Anthony families' safety but also the safety of the community..."

The reduced bail came as a shock, primarily because Anthony already confessed to the stabbing of Austin Metcalf to police, though he claims he was "acting in self defense".  Police reports indicate that Anthony entered the tent of the opposing team and was asked to leave by Austin Metcalf.  Anthony refused, unzipping a bag and telling Metcalf to "touch him and see what happens..."  Metcalf reportedly pushed or grabbed the suspect, who then pulled a knife from the bag and stabbed Metcalf in the chest.  He died soon after from blood loss in the arms if his twin brother.

Rumors swirled online after the incident, with race activists quickly coming to the defense of Karmelo Anthony and spreading rumors that he had been persistently bullied by Metcalf (this claim was later debunked, the two teens had never met before).

According to the evidence available so far, Anthony intruded upon the private tent of another team, made threats when he was asked to leave, then, instead of fighting like a man when confrontation ensued, he pulled a knife and stabbed Austin Metcalf in cowardly fashion. 

Unless there is some piece of crucial evidence being withheld, such as Metcalf threatening Anthony with a weapon, there is simply no legal standing for a self defense plea.  Online and armchair "legal experts" claim that Metcalf's supposed touching or grabbing of Anthony constitutes an action that justifies deadly force. In reality the suspect is required to demonstrate that he faced an imminent threat of death or great bodily harm. 

If the roles were reversed, there would be riots in the streets across America and the very same activists would claim "systemic racism".   It is a pattern seen over and over again in the US since the George Floyd case, with minority violence being spun as self defense and the response of police or any white bystander painted as racist oppression.  The CRT faction of the political left seems intent on making Karmelo Anthony into a black Daniel Penny or Kyle Rittenhouse reacting to save himself.  The available evidence simply doesn't support this narrative.

Unwanted physical contact alone is not legal justification for the use of a deadly weapon.  

What was Anthony doing at a school track meet with a knife?  Why was he in another team's tent and why did he refuse to leave?  Anthony also allegedly ran before police arrived (truly the act of an innocent person). Witness reports suggest an angry young man hoping to start a confrontation while he had a knife close at hand.

Perhaps adding insult to injury, the suspect's family has raised nearly half a million dollars through crowdfunding for Anthony's legal defense with many donators saying they support Anthony purely because he's black.  His father, however, revealed that they may use the money to purchase a new home in a gated community for "Karmelo's safety". 

He argues that "racist threats" have made the move necessary. Anthony's lawyers insisted the money raised online "is not a bond fund" and that the family needs the money to get by because Anthony's dad is currently on leave from his job. The decision is rather familiar; very similar to BLM leaders also buying $6 million houses using crowdfunded money originally intended to help the organization's activist efforts. 

The trend within minority communities of applauding violence then crying victim when a suspect is punished continues to perpetuate racial divisions and prevents said communities from learning anything of value.  If a group thinks they are always right, or always oppressed, then they will never change for the better and they will grow ever more childish and hostile.  It is a cultural path to disaster.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 11:20