5 Leadership Lessons From Winston Churchill For Today's World

Authored by Dustin Bass via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Winston Churchill was a man of action. He was born in 1874, during a period known as the Pax Britannica (1815–1914) and during the relative peace that had settled over Europe after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870. Nonetheless, as a young man, Churchill understood that military service was a sure path toward political elevation. To become a great leader in the political theater, he believed he first needed to be one in the theater of war. The following is what was required to make him the greatest leader of the 20th century.

British Prime minister Winston Churchill (C) walks with field Marshal Montgomery (R) along the east bank of the Rhine near Wesel, Germany, during World War II on March 25, 1945. STF/AFP via Getty Images Experience

Churchill was not an academic. He considered his schooldays to be “the only barren and unhappy period of my life.” Aside from writing and history, he did not perform well in school, thus he never attended university. He did, after three attempts, gain entrance to Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, graduating in 1894 near the top of his class and joining the 4th Queen’s Own Hussars.

From 1895 to 1900, Churchill witnessed the action he sought while doubling as a war correspondent in Cuba, India, Sudan, and South Africa, during which he was awarded the Spanish Order of Military Merit, the India Medal, the Queen’s Sudan Medal and the Khedive’s Sudan Medal, and the Queen’s South Africa Medal.

After losing his election to the House of Commons in 1899, Churchill returned to the battlefield to cover the Second Boer War in South Africa. It was here Churchill would make his name. On Nov. 15, 1899, while he was aboard an armored train, the Boers attacked, derailing several cars. Despite his journalistic position, Churchill led the charge to protect the train and clear the track, enabling it to escape. Thirty-eight British soldiers were either killed or wounded, and 23 were taken prisoner, Churchill among them.

Just as with his schooldays and garrison duties, being a prisoner of war proved boring. It was, however, an opportunity for further adventure. One December night, he escaped the prison and traveled approximately 300 miles across enemy lines to safety in today’s Mozambique, where he was welcomed as a hero.

A thirst for adventure and his literary gift for conveying those adventures not only made him one of the highest paid war correspondents, but enabled him to cultivate his image.

(L-R) British Prime minister Winston Churchill, Sir Miles Dempsey, British 2nd Army commandant, and British general Marshal Bernard Montgomery visit the destroyed city of Caen, France, after Allied forces stormed the Normandy beaches on D-Day, on July 23, 1944. STF/AFP via Getty Images Knowledge

As noted above, Churchill was not an academic. Nonetheless, he loved literature and history, and whenever he was not writing his war correspondences, engaging in battle or competing in polo, he was reading and studying. The extensive downtime in military life allowed him to devote hours to study. He studied Parliamentary debates, wrote down the arguments, and established his perspective on each. As Churchill scholar James Muller noted, “Churchill made himself his own university by reading great books.”

Certainly Churchill read for leisure, but the histories and biographies, as well as those debates, were not leisure reads. He utilized his present time in the military to create ammunition for his political future. Just as he craved adventure, he craved knowledge and wisdom in order to fuse together prudence with his courage.

Principles

By the time Churchill took his seat as a member of Parliament in 1901, he had fought bravely in four wars, become one of the world’s best war correspondents, and had written five books. He was, at the age of 26, already a known commodity. Knowledgeable? Yes. Courageous? Certainly. Principled? Without question.

As with any political figure, one must choose a party, and Churchill initially chose the Conservatives (Tories). He did not, however, choose party over principle. For example, as a Free Trader, a position the Conservatives had long held, he became vocally critical of his party when it began to shift toward protectionism. On May 31, 1904, he took a huge political risk during a session of Parliament when he walked from the Conservative side to the Liberal.

Churchill remained with the Liberal Party for the next two decades until it began supporting the up and coming Labour Party. For Churchill, Labour leaned too close to socialism, a political movement he abhorred throughout his life. In 1924, Churchill returned to the Conservatives where he remained for the rest of his political career.

Just as he understood the risks of courage on the battlefield, he understood the risks of courage in politics. For the sake of principle, such risks were worth taking.

Conservative Party leader Winston Churchill (L) walks next to British leader of the Liberal Party David Lloyd George in London in 1934. STRINGER/FRANCE PRESSE VOIR/AFP via Getty Images Prescience

Churchill’s experiences and exhaustive study of human history perhaps developed his prescience. Whether he developed it or it was simply innate, Churchill’s insight into human affairs was often proven correct well, including his perspectives on the dangers of Vladimir Lenin and the Russian Revolution, appeasing Adolf Hitler, trusting Joseph Stalin and the Soviets as an ally, the human cost of giving India independence too soon, and the coming Cold War. Furthermore, as Minister of Munitions during World War I, he proved the strongest supporter of what he called “land caterpillars” (i.e. tanks), ensuring their development and necessary inclusion in the war.

Though such prescience often left him labeled a war monger, he called that accusation “cruel and ungrateful.”

Reflecting on his leadership during World War II, he stated, “Ten years in the political wilderness had freed me from ordinary party antagonisms. My warnings over the last six years had been so numerous, so detailed, and were now so terribly vindicated, that no one could gainsay me. I could not be reproached either for making the war or with want of preparation for it.”

Time

“London will be in danger and in the high position I shall occupy,” Churchill told a friend in 1891, “it will fall to me to save the Capital and save the Empire.”

Of course, when he made that statement no one would have believed him. Indeed, had he attempted to lead a political or military cause, no one would have followed him. 

Somehow Churchill knew at a young age he was destined for greatness, and he dedicated himself to that proposition. His courage in both the military and political arenas, coupled with his willingness to stick to his principles and speak unfashionable truths, had prepared him to guide Great Britain through its darkest hour.

His decades of marching on life’s proving grounds ensured his voice rose above the rest, enabling his listeners to adopt his courage, even when he stated, “If this long island story of ours is to last, let it end only when each one of us lies choking in his own blood on the ground.”

To be the champion of—and to be championed for—such a statement doesn’t happen simply because one is a fine writer, although that is something for which Churchill was certain known. Rather, it comes through a long and arduous journey, and is forged by qualities that made Churchill the greatest leader of the 20th century. These are qualities today’s leaders would be prudent to follow.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 22:35

34 Illegal Immigrant Truck Drivers Arrested In Oklahoma: ICE

A two-day operation led to the arrest of 70 illegal immigrants in Oklahoma, which included 34 drivers operating a semi-truck or a commercial vehicle, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said in a Nov. 4 statement.

The arrests were made in partnership with the Oklahoma Highway Patrol between Oct. 28 and 29, said the agency. It is part of Operation Guardian, which has “resulted in the arrest of many illegal aliens driving trucks that had been issued Commercial Drivers Licenses in states with sanctuary policies such as California, Illinois, and New York,” the agency said.

In places that follow sanctuary policies, local officials refuse to enforce immigration laws or comply with federal authorities.

Out of the 34 illegal immigrant truck drivers, 26 were issued a commercial driver’s license (CDL) while eight were “dangerously driving” vehicles without such licenses, ICE said.

The illegal immigrants are from 15 different nations, including China, Mexico, Turkey, Colombia, India, Guatemala, and Venezuela.

As The Epoch Times' Naveen Athrappully details below, ICE said illegal immigrants who operate vehicles without proper authorization pose a threat to public safety and undermine the rule of law. The operation sends a “clear message” that such activities won’t be tolerated, it said.

Operation Guardian is a deportation initiative implemented in February and led by Oklahoma’s Commissioner of Public Safety Tim Tipton.  Oklahoma aims to use existing state and federal regulations to transfer offending illegal immigrants for deportation proceedings.

“Operation Guardian continues to successfully keep Oklahomans safe,” said Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt.

“To lawfully operate a commercial motor vehicle in Oklahoma, you must be here legally, and you must be able to understand English. These are common-sense standards that we will continue to enforce.”

On April 28, President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring that all commercial vehicle operators in the country be proficient in English.

“There’s a lot of communication problems between truckers on the road,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at the time. “We’re going to ensure that our truckers, who are the backbone of our economy, are all able to speak English.”

In an Oct. 30 statement, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said 223 illegal immigrants, including 146 truck drivers on Indiana highways near the Illinois state line, were arrested as part of an enforcement operation targeting public safety threats.

The illegal immigrants have engaged in criminal activity, including drug trafficking, assault, child abuse, domestic battery, driving under the influence, and fraud, DHS said. Out of the 146 drivers, more than 40 were issued CDLs, mostly by New York, California, and Illinois.

“Far too many innocent Americans have been killed by illegal aliens driving semi-trucks and big rigs. And yet, sanctuary states around the country have been issuing illegal aliens commercial driver’s licenses. The Trump Administration is ending the chaos,” said DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

In August, an illegal immigrant from India was arrested after making an illegal U-turn in an 18-wheeler in Florida, colliding with a minivan and killing three people. He pleaded not guilty in September.

Strengthening Driver License Rules

In a Sept. 26 statement, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) said it had conducted a nationwide audit that uncovered a “catastrophic pattern” of states issuing driver’s licenses illegally to foreign nationals.

Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy announced emergency actions to make noncitizens ineligible for a nondomiciled CDL unless they meet “a much stricter set of rules,” FMCSA said.

The stringent regulations include undergoing a mandatory federal immigration status check that uses the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system.

“What our team has discovered should disturb and anger every American,” Duffy said.

“Licenses to operate a massive, 80,000-pound truck are being issued to dangerous foreign drivers—often times illegally. This is a direct threat to the safety of every family on the road, and I won’t stand for it. Today’s actions will prevent unsafe foreign drivers from renewing their license and hold states accountable to immediately invalidate improperly issued licenses.”

The U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants submitted comments to the Federal Register, criticizing the move to end nondomiciled CDL for foreign nationals, the group said in an Oct. 29 statement.

The move will not only threaten the livelihood of immigrant drivers but also the stability and well-being of the United States, the committee said.

“Trucking is a job that requires long nights and days away from loved ones. It is a hard job that not many willingly sign up for. As a result, the industry has struggled to keep drivers on staff,” said the group.

“Assailed by these steep labor shortages, immigrant workers have picked up the slack: 18 percent of truckers are foreign-born. Like so many other industries, immigrants fill the jobs others do not want.”

During an Oct. 30 press conference, Duffy announced that the DOT will seek to withhold federal government funds from states issuing nondomiciled CDLs to foreign nationals who are unlawfully in the United States.

States need to ensure that people who receive such licenses are proficient in English, Duffy said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 22:10

Our Modern Madhouse Exposes A Collective Laziness Of Mind

Authored by Todd Hayen via Off-Guardian.org,

Black, White, And The Comfortable Lie

I was talking to a very close friend the other day who happens to be a die-hard Trump hater (I know what you are thinking, don’t ask). We unfortunately drifted into a “discussion” about the January 6 fiasco (and also don’t ask me why I bother). Time and time again, I run into this sort of thing—where the position on the left believes they are 100% right about any particular controversial topic.

No matter how much contradicting (to their position) information I provide, they dismiss it all as garbage. “It is obvious what it is, and that’s that.” As with most things these days, I find this odd.

Nothing is 100% a particular way, with zero valid argument in the other direction. Nothing except very simple things. I am, of course, describing the infamous “false binary” or “false dichotomy” or “false dilemma.”

This is nothing new, of course. The idea of the false binary has been kicking around human thought since the days when philosophers in togas were debating the nature of reality. It’s a logical fallacy that’s as old as logic itself, with roots stretching back to ancient Greece.

Aristotle, that granddaddy of Western philosophy, touched on similar ideas in his works on rhetoric and ethics, warning against oversimplifying complex arguments into rigid either-or choices that ignore the messy nuances of life. He didn’t call it a “false dichotomy” per se—that term came later—but he was essentially calling out the same intellectual laziness in his critiques of sophistry, where debaters would trap opponents in contrived binaries to win points rather than seek truth.

Fast-forward a few centuries, and the concept gets more formalized during the Enlightenment, when thinkers like John Locke and David Hume started dissecting human reasoning and its pitfalls. But it really crystallized in the 19th and 20th centuries with the rise of formal logic and fallacy studies. Logicians like John Stuart Mill in his System of Logic (1843) highlighted how people often frame debates as black-or-white to manipulate outcomes, excluding middle grounds or alternative possibilities.

By the mid-20th century, it was a staple in critical thinking texts—consider Irving Copi’s Introduction to Logic in the 1950s, which cataloged it as a classic informal fallacy. In essence, a false dichotomy presents a situation as if there are only two mutually exclusive options, when in reality, there’s a spectrum, or third (or fourth, or fifth) paths lurking in the shadows. It’s like saying, “You’re either with us or against us,” as if loyalty is a switch that can’t be dimmed or rewired.

This trick forces people into polarized corners, shutting down dialogue and making compromise seem like betrayal.

In our modern madhouse, it’s weaponized everywhere—from politics, where elections are pitched as apocalyptic battles between good and evil, to the Covid era’s “vax or die” mantra that erased any talk of natural immunity or alternative treatments. It’s a mind trap that preys on our tribal instincts, making us feel secure in our righteousness while blinding us to the gray areas where real understanding lives. And that’s the shrew’s (contrarian thinkers) edge: spotting these illusions before they hook us.

Kit Knightly, the sharp-witted editor at Off-Guardian, wields the term “false binary” (or its sly cousin “fake binary”) like a scalpel in the operating theatre of narrative dissection—precise, incisive, and always aimed at the festering heart of controlled opposition.

Primarily on OffG, where he’s been a cornerstone voice since the site’s early days, Knightly deploys it to unmask how power structures peddle rigged choices. Such as the endless left/right, red/blue, or vaxx/anti-vaxx traps that corral dissent into neat little pens, ensuring the real exit stays bolted shut. His star turn? Co-hosting the September 2024 livestream “Debunking the False Binary” with the freshly minted Independent Media Alliance (IMA)—flanked by heavyweights like Iain Davis, Derrick Broze, and James Corbett. There, they eviscerate the “fake binary” as a core narrative control technique, spotlighting how “alternative” media gets infiltrated with hopium-laced divides: Trump saviors vs. Harris horrors, pro-Ukraine “freedom fighters” vs. pro-Russia isolationists, or techno-utopias vs. Luddite panic—all engineered to seed division while the technocratic overlords chuckle from the shadows.

Elsewhere, Knightly echoes this in IMA’s launch manifesto, framing the false binary as public enemy #1 in alt-media warfare: countering “false two-party paradigms,” imperial war cheerleading, and digital ID “solutions” pitched as the lone fix for every ill. Knightly doesn’t just name the fallacy; he maps its deployment in real-time psyops, from Covid compliance cults to election theatre, urging us to torch the scripts and dance in the nuance.

Why do people cling to false dichotomies like life rafts in a storm? Sure, the agenda-pushers love them—black-and-white framing is the perfect divide-and-conquer tool, herding sheep into opposing pens while the shepherds count the wool. But let’s not pretend that’s the whole story. The real rot runs deeper, straight into the human psyche, where comfort trumps complexity every time.

Most folks aren’t wired for the cognitive marathon that critical thinking demands. Nuance is exhausting; it requires holding contradictory ideas in your head without your brain blue-screening. Polarity? That’s a cozy blanket. Pick a side, slap on a label, and suddenly the world makes sense—no pesky gray areas to trip over. It’s the mental equivalent of fast food: quick, satisfying, and ultimately bad for you. Cognitive dissonance is painful; false binaries are painkillers.

Carl Jung, that old Swiss sage of the psyche, nailed it when he spoke of the “tension of the opposites”—the electric space where thesis clashes with antithesis, birthing the living synthesis that is real life.

This isn’t some tidy resolution; it’s a perpetual tightrope walk, demanding we hold the unbearable “unknowning” in our trembling hands, staring into the abyss between black and white without flinching. Most sheep-types (and I have to say, many shrew-types as well these days) bolt for the cliffs of certainty, terrified of the vertigo that comes with admitting “maybe I’m wrong, maybe it’s both, maybe it’s neither.” The ego screams for solid ground—pick a side, plant a flag, silence the dissonance—so they collapse the tension into a false binary, snuffing out the very spark that could illuminate truth. Most critical thinkers (at least the ones I mingle with) thrive in the friction, muscles aching from the pull, because that’s where the gods hide, whispering secrets to those brave enough to listen without answers.

Then there’s the tribal pull. Humans are pack animals, and nothing bonds a group faster than a common enemy. “Us vs. Them” isn’t just a narrative trick—it’s evolutionary. Back in the savanna days, you didn’t survive by pondering the moral ambiguity of the rival tribe; you picked your side and swung the club. Today, that instinct gets hijacked by algorithms and talking heads, but the wiring’s the same. Admitting your team might be wrong feels like betrayal, so people double down, even when the facts are screaming otherwise.

And yes, critical thinking’s been on life support for decades. Schools teach compliance, not curiosity. Media rewards outrage, not analysis. Social platforms amplify the loudest, simplest takes. We’ve raised generations that confuse certainty with strength and doubt with weakness. When you’ve never been taught to question, polarity isn’t just easier—it’s the only path you can see. And this, needless to say, is largely, if not entirely, the work of the agenda, whose sole intention is to control the masses.

That said, the agenda exploits what’s mostly already there: a collective laziness of mind, a fear of ambiguity, and a desperate need to belong. The shepherds don’t create the sheep; they just build better fences. Those of us who use our critical thinking see the gates and seek ways out of the herd. Most don’t even look.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 21:45

China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver

According to Trump, his big achievement a week ago when he announced the trade truce with China, was getting Beijing to agree to remove export limitations on rare earth minerals, which as most now know are so critical for US companies to make everything from cell phones, to cars, and military equipment. And yet, as discussed on a few occasions this week, it feels like the cracks in this latest trade deal are already starting to show, whether it is Beijing ordering Trump what he can't talk about, or quietly ring-fencing its domestic data center by banning US AI chips.

And now, it appears that while China granted Trump a 1 year reprieve on rare earths, it is quietly tightening the export noose on other, just as important minerals.

According to the Global Times, China has introduced new export controls on silver, antimony, and tungsten.

In the statement published on the MOFCOM's website last Thursday, the export controls are for the 2026-27 period, and have the stated aim of "stepping up the protection of resources and the environment."

The Global Times continues:

The document was proposed by the Department of Foreign Trade of MOFCOM, based on the regulations outlined by the Foreign Trade Law of and the Regulations on the Administration of Import and Export of Goods. It aims to protect resources and the environment and enhance the export management of rare metals, said the MOFCOM.

Which is amusing: the only reason why China is currently the world leader in global rare earth refining - which is an extremely polluting and toxic process - is precisely because China has absolutely no regard for the environment; that's because it has a huge land mass which is expendable, and it can use and abuse as it sees fit, and has millions of workers which are just as expendable.

Take the world's largest rare earth processing mine, Bayan Obo, which is located in the barren Inner Mongolia region, and which has generated over 70,000 tons of radioactive thorium as toxic byproducts from years of REE processing.

As the Harvard International Review wrote recently, "China was only able to establish such [Rare Earth] dominance over the REE industry in large part because of lax environmental regulations. Low cost, high pollution methods enabled China to outpace competitors and create a strong foothold in the international REE market. This market is now booming: China spiked its outputs for the first half of 2021 by more than 27 percent, hitting record levels of REE extraction as demand increases.

The most infamous mine in China is Bayan-Obo, the largest REE mine in the world. Even more infamous than the mine itself is the tailing pond it has produced: there are over 70,000 tons of radioactive thorium stored in the area. This has become a larger issue recently because the tailing pond lacks proper lining. As a result, its contents have been seeping into groundwater and will eventually hit the Yellow River, a key source of drinking water. Currently, the sludge is moving at a pace of 20-30 meters per year, a dangerously rapid rate.

So no, China's stated purpose of limiting exports because it is suddenly worried about the environment is bullshit. What isn't, however, is that Beijing has strategically realized that while it can give Trump some RREs, it will limit access to other products which are just as important across supply chains, thus exposing yet another near-shorting choke point. 

As the Global Times notes, "China's exports of tungsten products - excluding cemented carbide tools and tungsten halogen lamps - totaled 12,000 tons from January to September of this year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.75 percent compared with the same period in 2024... The material can be used for manufacturing light filaments and optical instruments. As a major exporter of rare metals China produced more than 80 percent of global tungsten supply in 2023, according to data from the United States Geological Survey, the Reuters reported."

And so the game of export whack-a-mole in the second World Trade War continues: today the US is getting rare earths (at least until Trump has another Truth Social meltdown), but just got stopped out on other, just as important materials. This export control rotation will continue until the day the US is self-sufficient, which however due to the abovementioned environmental limitations, will take a very long time unless somehow the US govt funnels enough money in domestic producers (and allows them to dump the toxic by products anywhere - who knows maybe Elon can blast them off into space) to short circuit the process.

Until then, go long stocks of domestic miners that specialize in extracting and producing anything and everything that China feels like no longer exporting to the US.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 21:20

Japan Sends Troops To Combat Spike In Fatal Bear Attacks

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Japan deployed troops to the north of the country on Nov. 5 to help control bears in the area, after local authorities said they were struggling to cope with an unprecedented wave of attacks.

A black bear stands near the side of Highway 881 near Conklin, Alberta, on May 10, 2016. The Canadian Press/Jonathan Hayward

Soldiers from the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) have been sent to the area to work alongside local hunters to help bring the animals under control, according to news outlet The Asahi Shimbun.

The troops, however, will not be allowed to use firearms in the operation but will be restricted to bear-repellent spray for deterrence and protection, and will assist in setting box traps, conducting patrols, transporting hunters, moving captured or culled bears, and collecting information.

The operation began in Kazuno, a city in Akita Prefecture in the far north of the main island of Honshu.

Kazuno has seen a sharp uptick in bear sightings in recent weeks, with residents urged to avoid the thick woods surrounding the settlement and stay indoors after dark to keep clear of the bears foraging near homes.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also told the Japanese parliament that the government will decide on emergency measures to address bear-related issues by the middle of the month.

“We will implement necessary measures in a timely manner without waiting for the final decision to be made,” she said, according to Japanese news agency Jiji.

Since April, Japan has seen more than 100 bear attacks with a record 13 people killed across the country in the same time period, according to the Ministry of the Environment.

Two-thirds of those deaths were in Akita Prefecture and the neighboring Iwate Prefecture.

In Akita, authorities say bear sightings have jumped sixfold this year to more than 8,000, and attacks are on track to set a new record, prompting its governor to request help from the Self-Defense Forces last week.

After Kazuno, a town of around 30,000 people known for its hot springs and scenery, the GDSF soldiers will move on to Odate and Kitaakita under an agreement that lasts until the end of the month, according to news outlet NHK.

Rising bear numbers, shifts in natural food sources, and depopulation of rural areas are increasingly bringing people into contact with bears. Meanwhile, the hunters, many of whom are aging, on whom authorities used to rely to deal with the problem, have found themselves overwhelmed this year.

In recent weeks, bears have attacked customers inside a supermarket, a tourist walking to a bus stop near a UNESCO World Heritage site, and a worker at a hot spring resort.

Bear attacks usually peak in October and November, as the animals search for food before entering hibernation.

Japanese black bears, common across most of the country, can weigh up to 265 pounds, while the brown bears on the northern island of Hokkaido can weigh more than 1,300 pounds, according to Bear Conservation.

In September, the government relaxed gun rules to make it easier for hunters to shoot bears in urban areas.

The law change now allows municipal authorities to ask licensed hunters to cull or capture bears, provided they ensure the safety of affected communities by restricting traffic and evacuating residents in cooperation with police.

Previously, the law banned hunters from shooting the animals in densely populated areas, except when they were ordered to do so by police due to a threat to life, the Japan Times reports.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 20:55

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET The initial weekly unemployment claims report will NOT be released.

"Cut The Federal Budget In Half... And Get More Done..."

Elon Musk told Joe Rogan, during his latest podcast appearance, that given unlimited powers (which he doubts is possible in our supposedly democratic regime), he could "cut the federal budget in half.. and get more done."

Reflecting on his disappointing efforts at DOGE (which he notes were stalled by both the left and the right not wanting to end the grift), Musk notes the authoritarian nature of an end-game solution to the US government's spending problems make it nearly impossible, but he argues that many U.S. government departments are wasteful and counterproductive, citing the Department of Education as a prime example.

Created in the late 1970s, he said, educational outcomes have worsened ever since - proving that centralization often destroys competition and results.

As 'Camus' noted on X, Musk questioned why, when America first thrived with just a few departments - State, Treasury, War, and Justice - we now need an enormous federal apparatus that employs millions in roles “that add no real value.”

Referring to a famous Milton Friedman anecdote, Musk mocked the idea that keeping unproductive jobs alive somehow benefits society.

“If you want job creation for its own sake,” he joked, “have people dig with teaspoons instead of shovels.”

His core philosophy was clear: true progress comes from productivity, innovation, and useful work - not bureaucracy.

Watch the brief interchange here...

Elon Musk on the Joe Rogan Podcast: “Cut the federal budget in half—and get more done.”

Elon Musk argued that many U.S. government departments are wasteful and counterproductive, citing the Department of Education as a prime example. Created in the late 1970s, he said,… pic.twitter.com/rmiTvKtUA6

— Camus (@newstart_2024) November 5, 2025

Source: Camus

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 20:30

Family Violence Against Seniors In Canada Reaches Record High

Authored by Chandra Philip via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Incidents of family violence against Canadian seniors has hit a record high, according to data from Statistics Canada.

The recently released StatCan report found that the number of seniors mistreated by a family member has risen 49 percent since 2018. StatCan analyzed police-reported incidents of family violence nationwide for the study.

Seniors were most often victimized by a child (36 percent) or spouse (28 percent), the report found, while 25 percent were victimized by another family member, with 11 percent identifying the perpetrator as a sibling.

A total of 7,622 incidents of senior family violence were reported to police in 2024.

StatCan noted there has been a 4 percent increase in family violence against seniors since 2023, which was considered the highest recorded rate at the time.

Seventy-two percent of senior victims said they were victims of a physical assault by a family member in 2024, while 17 percent said they were a victim of threats.

The number of family violence cases for senior women was slightly higher than than of senior men, with 104 female victims per 100,000 people and 92 males per 100,000 people.

StatCan said women 65 years and older were most often mistreated by their child (34 percent) or spouse (32 percent), while 39 percent of senior men said they were victimized by their child and 21 percent reported being mistreated by a spouse.

Overall, the rate of family violence increased by 17 percent between 2018 and 2024, according to StatCan. The report also said that cases of intimate partner violence increased by 14 percent during the same time period.

Police services in Canada said there were 349 victims of family violence per 100,000 population in 2024, StatCan noted.

The StatCan report also noted an increase in intimate partner violence among victims aged 12 or older—a number that grew 14 percent.

The rise was larger for men and boys, who saw a 21 percent increase, compared to women and girls, who saw a 16 percent increase.

StatCan said there were 25,938 child and youth victims of police-reported family violence in 2024, a rate of 345 victims per 100,000 population aged 17 and younger.

The report said that 30 percent of children were mistreated by a family member.

The rate of family violence against children has increased 26 percent since 2018, with most being victimized by a parent (61 percent), while 15 percent were victimized by a sibling and 24 percent by another family member.

The majority children and youth (57 percent) were victims of physical assault, while 33 percent of child and youth were victims of sexual assault.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 20:05

"That'd Be So Sick!": Sydney Sweeney May Bounce Into The Ring For Charity Boxing Match

Sydney Sweeney, who may or may not have 'perfect titties' (she does), has hinted at getting in the ring for a charity boxing match.

The 28-year-old actress has packed on 35 pounds to play world champion boxer Christy Martin in a new sports biopic out Nov. 7, and tells SportsCasting that she may put on the gloves for real.

"There was a moment in the middle of filming where I was like, ‘Should I give it all up and fight because I love this," she said, adding that Martin, 57, offered to sign her up. 

"So, this isn’t as hypothetical as you actually think it is," Sweeney continued. "I’d totally do a charity bout, that’d be so sick!"

Sydney Sweeney stars as Christy Martin in ‘Christy.’ (Josh Lawson/Black Bear)

When asked who she'd fight, the actress said: "It’s a surprise, you’ll have to wait, I’m serious ... "You gotta stay tuned for the pay-per-view and you’ll see it."

Martin, who Sweeney plays, served as a consultant on the biographical film. Other cast members include actors Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, and Katy O'Brian.

The former pro boxer was a trailblazer in women's boxing - earning the WBC female super walterweight title in 2009, before she survived an attempted murder at the hands of her ex-husband, James Martin - who was found guilty of second-degree murder with a firearm in 2012 and sentenced to 25 years in prison. He died in November of last year while serving out his sentence at Graceville Correctional Facility in Florida. 

"Christy, your story has completely changed me, and as we get closer to sharing this film with the world, I wanted to share something," Sweeney posted on Instagram over the weekend.

"One of the first things I watched when I got this role was this video. Her powerful testimony at her ex-husband’s hearing. The man who tried to kill her. I hope this film helps so many others."

Sweeney has also starred in the following photo shoots and public displays of sexyness, which we're posting in the name of good journalism: 

Perfect titties confirmed

We'll give you a few minutes alone... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 19:40

US To Cut Flights By 10% At 40 Airports As Shutdown Persists

Air traffic at 40 major US airports will be cut by 10% starting Friday as travelers continue to face flight disruptions due to a spike in air traffic controller absences during what is now the longest government shutdown on record. 

During a Wednesday press briefing alongside the leader of the Federal Aviation Administration, Bryan Bedford, US transportation secretary Sean Duffy said that the Federal Aviation Administration would begin reducing flights later this week to keep air travel safe as it contends with shutdown pain on top of a nationwide shortfall of about 2,000 air traffic controllers. 

The names of the 40 affected airports would be released on Thursday, FAA head Bryan Bedford said at the press conference with Duffy, who said the decision would be data-based. 

“The data will dictate what we do,” Duffy said. “If the data goes in the wrong direction, could you see additional restrictions? Yes.”

“This is not based on what airlines have more flights out of what location. This is about, ‘Where’s the pressure, and how do we alleviate the pressure?’” Duffy said. 

Duffy said the cuts were necessary to maintain air travel safety. Cuts to international flights hadn’t been discussed, although unless the shutdown situation changes, those too are likely. Bedford added that he sees the FAA restricting space launches as well. 

Airlines were expected to advise customers of changes to scheduled flights after Thursday’s announcement.

The transportation secretary added that steps had already been taken to shore up its workforce — including offering cash bonuses to incentivise retirement-age controllers to continue working, and “surging” trainees at its academy.

“The shutdown is having an impact on our ability to maintain those numbers and dent that 2,000 shortage that we have,” he added.

The FAA has been forced to slow traffic at many airports in recent days due to rising controller staffing shortages since the government shutdown began on Oct. 1. Air traffic controllers continue to work without pay.

Millions of passengers have grappled with flight cancellations and delays related to staffing since the shutdown started, Airlines for America, a trade group, said. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 19:15

China Orders State-Funded Data Centers Not To Use Foreign AI Chips

Yesterday we said that with Beijing giving Trump a list of 4 "red lines" he should note cross (including i) Taiwan, ii) democracy and human rights, iii) China’s political system, and iv) development rights), the countdown to the end of the trade truce has started because there is no more certain way to get Trump to do something than to tell him he shouldn't. 

And in a move that will only accelerate Trump's anger, the Chinese government issued guidance requiring new data centre projects that have received any state funds to only use domestically-made artificial intelligence chips, Reuters reported.

In recent weeks, Chinese regulatory authorities ordered such data centres that are less than 30% complete to remove all installed foreign chips, or cancel plans to purchase them, while projects in a more advanced stage will be decided on a case-by-case basis, the Reuters sources said.

Some projects have already been suspended before breaking ground as a result of the directive, including a facility in a northwestern province that had planned to deploy Nvidia chips, one of the sources said. The project, being developed by a private technology company that received state funding, has been put on hold, the source said.

The move could represent one of China's most aggressive steps yet to eliminate foreign technology from its critical infrastructure amid a pause in trade hostilities between Washington and Beijing, and achieve its quest for AI chip self-sufficiency.

China's access to advanced AI chips, including those made by Nvidia has been a key point of friction with the U.S., as the two wrestle for dominance in high-end computing power and AI. Trump said in an interview aired on Sunday following talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week that Washington will "let them deal with Nvidia but not in terms of the most advanced" chips.

Beijing's response: if you limit technology, we will come up with our own. 

The move by Beijing, would dash Nvidia's hopes of regaining Chinese market share, while giving local rivals, including Huawei, yet another opportunity to secure more chip sales. Besides Nvidia, other foreign chipmakers that sell data centre chips to China include AMD and Intel. 

It remains unclear whether the guidance applies nationwide or only to certain provinces, although it is likely the case that this will soon become the norm unless something changes. The sources did not identify which Chinese regulatory bodies had issued the order. 

Unlike in the US where corporations are funding data center buildout - either through cash flow, equity or debt - AI data center projects in China have drawn over $100 billion in state funding since 2021, according to a Reuters review of government tenders. Most data centers in China have received some form of state funding to aid their construction, but it is not immediately clear how many projects are subject to the new guidance.

Beijing has long been irked by Washington's export controls aimed at impeding China's tech progress and has taken a series of measures, including retaliatory moves, to wean itself off US technology. In response, the US has been aggressively ramping up Industrial Policy to boost domestic rare earth mining and refining to ween itself off reliance on Chinese rare earth production. The latest trade truce gives Trump about a year to come up with a viable alternative and a domestic rare earth industry which has seen substantial, but still mostly insignificant, funding from the US. 

The US justified its restrictions by alleging the Chinese military would use the chips to increase its capabilities. China has discouraged local tech giants from purchasing advanced Nvidia chips over security concerns this year, while showing off a new data centre powered solely by domestic AI chips.

And in 2023, Beijing banned the use of Micron'sproducts in its critical infrastructure, which paved the way for a decision this year by the largest U.S. memory chipmaker to exit the server chip market in China, Reuters reported last month.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly lobbied Trump and his cabinet to allow the sale of more AI chips to China, arguing that keeping its superpower rival's AI industry dependent on U.S. hardware was good for America's interests.
Its current share of the Chinese AI chip market is zero, compared to 95% in 2022, according to the company.

Excluding foreign chipmakers like Nvidia from big state projects would eliminate a significant portion of their China revenue, even as a deal is agreed to allow the resumption of advanced chip sales to China. The new guidance on data centres covers Nvidia's H20 chips, the most advanced AI chip the U.S. firm is allowed to sell to China, but also more powerful processors such as the B200 and H200, the sources said.

While the B200 and H200 are barred from being shipped to China by U.S. export controls, they remain widely available in China through grey-market channels.

Of course, the obvious next question is does China have the technology to actually achieve parity with the US.

With the latest directive, the Chinese government is carving out even more market share for domestic chipmakers. China has a range of AI chip companies, from the most prominent, Huawei Technologies, to smaller players such as Shanghai-listed Cambricon and startups including MetaX, Moore Threads, and Enflame.

While products from these Chinese companies already rival some of Nvidia's offerings, they have struggled to crack the market. Developers used to Nvidia's reliable software ecosystem have been reluctant to adopt domestic alternatives.

Lastly, while the move would help boost sales of domestically developed chips, it also risks widening the U.S.-China gap in AI computing power. U.S. tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and OpenAI have spent or allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to build data centres powered by Nvidia's most advanced chips. Meanwhile, leading Chinese chip manufacturers like SMIC are facing supply constraints due to U.S. sanctions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment that have hit advanced chip production capacity.

In the end, the most likely endgame is one where both Beijing and DC directly fund their domestic AI industries to win the next "arms race" which will be who gets to AGI first, as the cost for not getting there first will be existentially staggering. As such, we expect a substantial spending spree from the US government to fund even more progress as Trump seeks to expand the tech gap with China, which in turn will further blow out the US budget deficit and lead to an even faster growth in the US federal debt in coming years. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 18:50

US Household Debt Hits Record $18.6 Trillion As Student Loan Defaults Explode

The NY Fed published its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.

Surprising exactly no-one, the report showed that total household debt increased by $197 billion (1%) in Q3 2025, to a new record high of $18.59 trillion. split between $13.5 trillion in housing debt and $5.1 trillion in non-housing debt.

“Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards.” 

Some details:

• Mortgage balances grew by $137 billion in the third quarter and totaled $13.07 trillion at the end of September 2025.
  • Mortgage delinquency rate rose to 0.83% from 0.82% prior quarter
• Credit card balances rose by $24 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.23 trillion.
  • Delinquency rate at 12.41%, highest since 2011
• Auto loan balances held steady at $1.66 trillion.
• Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances rose by $11 billion to $422 billion.
• Student loan balances rose by $15 billion and stood at $1.65 trillion.

In total, non-housing balances rose by $49 billion, a 1.0% increase from Q2 2025. 

Taking a closer look we find that...  

• The pace of mortgage originations increased with $512 billion newly originated in Q3 2025.

The only silver lining in the report is that housing debt levels and delinquencies have stabilized: “Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” Donghoon Lee, an economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in a press release accompanying the figures. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards."

While that is true, let's see what happens to the US housing market once the avalanche starts, tipped off the by scramble to sell everything in the mecca of Capitalism, New York City, which is now controlled by a communist. 

Moving on: 

• There was $184 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the third quarter, a small dip from the $188 billion observed in Q2 2025.

• Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $94 billion, representing a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter.
• Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $8 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

Of course, with rising debt, come rising delinquencies, and in the case of student debt, absolutely explosive ones.

As the NY Fed writes, aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in Q3 2025, with 4.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transitions into early delinquency were mixed with credit card debt and student loans increasing, while all other debt types saw decreases.

Transitions into delinquency (30+ days)...

... and serious delinquency (90+ days) increased across all debt types.

Total consumer bankruptcies jumped to 141,600 in Q3, the highest since the covid crash year of 2020. 

Taking a closer look at the ground zero of the current consumption crisis, namely student Loans, where outstanding debt stood at $1.65 trillion in Q3 2025.  

And the punchline: missed federal student loan payments that were not previously reported to credit bureaus between Q2 2020 and Q4 2024 are now appearing in credit reports. Consequently, student loan delinquency rates have continued to surge after a sharp rise in the first half of 2025. In Q3 2025, 9.4% of aggregate student debt was reported as 90+ days delinquent or in default, as compared to 7.8% in Q1 2025 and 10.2% in Q2 2025. Also of note in the chart below, the credit card serious delinquency rate is actually creeping up even faster, and hit 12.41%, the highest since 2011.

And the most remarkable observation: over 20% of all student debt by those aged 50 and over (!) is effectively in default (technically it is still delinquent, but if millions haven't made even a token effort to repay it in 90 days, one can safely classify it as in default).

That's millions of potential consumers whose credit rating is about to get obliterated and who will not have access to credit cards or other debt forms for a long time. 

More in the full New York Fed presentation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 16:35

The Corrupt Anatomy Of The SNAP Panic

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Americans ought to be deeply embarrassed at the national panic over the future of food stamps. The level of dependency on this program (42 million people and 22 million households) runs contrary to our entire civic culture and history.

It is a betrayal of the founding vision of commerce, independence, and agronomy. It reveals a fundamentally dangerous rot at the core of the functioning of the food system.

We can hope that the widespread meltdown over even the slightest pause in the program provokes a rethinking of the entire scheme.

The term food stamps is of course deprecated in favor of SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) delivered via an EBT (Electronic Benefits Transfer). This is all technocratic euphemism. They are food stamps. The name was changed to disguise the disgrace and the mode of delivery turned into a card that looks like any other.

It was much better when people had to deliver their stamps in front of other customers. At least that preserved some of the stigma with which it was associated. As for nutrition, not so much. The SNAP program amounts to a huge subsidy for the snack-food industry, which turns out to be the key lobbying force behind the entire thing.

The origin of the program traces to 1933. Its main point was not to save people from starvation but to save industry from a downturn at the onset of the Great Depression. The price of wheat, milk, and meat were falling dramatically. The problem was not a lack of demand but a huge overproduction brought about by market distortions.

To understand the economic issue, you have to go back to the Great War when wartime disruptions in Europe provoked reliance on U.S. production. U.S. exports of food expanded dramatically and so did the amount of farmed acreage. The industry kept growing throughout the 1920s, based in part on leverage and inflated expectations of urbanization.

The stock market crashed and this was followed by an immediate trade war that harmed U.S. exports. The bubble broke and prices began to drop dramatically. In other words, the market corrected exactly as it should have given the circumstances.

The market is a beautiful thing: it provided cheap food exactly when it was needed most. But in 1933, a new president took power who was not a fan of the market. He hired a slew of new appointees who imagined themselves to be social and economic planners. So instead of allowing the correction, Washington got in the business of propping up industry.

The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933 had the government buying up surplus food from farmers and distributors and giving it away to people. This was plainly and purely a program of price support. That was the entire point. That’s why the program was administered by the Department of Agriculture, not some other welfare agency.

Meanwhile, the true American system of helping people did the heavy lifting. It was the soup kitchens and church pantries that truly got to work on solving the hunger problem. All the new food stamps did was keep food prices higher than they otherwise would be, and kept the agricultural industry from adjusting according to prevailing conditions.

From then to now, that has been the essence of the program. It’s an industry subsidy. The grocery chains depend on it. So do Big Ag producers. It also works as a vote-buying program by promoting dependency among the citizenry.

The program is completely unregulated in the way a church soup kitchen would be. Privately run food pantries do more than dish up food; they assist people toward fixing up their lives. When they see the program being abused, they cut people off. The Good Samaritan did not just give money but rather life assistance. So too for private charity today.

Government doesn’t do this. It subsidizes large industrial players while promoting dependency. Imagine tiny birds in a nest with their mouths open waiting for the mother bird to arrive with worms. Or think of dogs waiting beneath the table for scraps from plates. That’s how the architects of this program see the American people.

Think of the whole institution of Thanksgiving. It is our number one holiday even though it is not technically part of any religious calendar. You could say it is a high holy day of our civic religion.

And what does it celebrate? It honors the blessings of God in the form of food that nourishes our bodies. When we thank God for the food, what we mean is to thank God for our lives and hands and capacities to work to get that food. It celebrates the capacity of a free and godly people to manage themselves in independence. It celebrates how a society learned to feed itself.

Food stamps from government turn the whole message of Thanksgiving on its head. Instead of work and merit, it institutionalizes dependency on the Crown to feed, which is exactly the practice against which the Founders rebelled. They rejected the Crown’s tea and emoluments in favor of national independence and productivity.

How pathetic that we’ve spent weeks in wailing and gnashing of teeth over possible cuts in free food via electronic transfer! Industry and welfare recipients are screaming: “Oh no no, please don’t take away our free stuff!”

Friends, this is inconsistent with the habits and values of a free and dignified people! I get that these are very hard times. And people are in need.

On the other hand, this is the most obese and sick country in the world, poisoned by an overabundance of genetically modified calorie-rich junk food and burdened with corporate cartels that are equally dependent on government handouts.

"Freedom From Want," between 1941–1945, by Norman Rockwell. U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, Public Domain

It’s a national disgrace that an entire nation would be yelling and demanding more free food. It’s utter humiliation. This program runs contrary to everything we ever aspired to be as a nation. I hope this pause in benefits serves as a wakeup call to find our way back to our core values before it is too late.

It is not part of our national DNA to have people and industries that are dependent on government handouts in any form. Get some dignity, folks, and man up. Look at the Norman Rockwell painting of Thanksgiving and the pride on the breadwinner’s face as he serves his huge family. That’s who we are. That’s who we can be again.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 16:20

Abrupt Sentiment Shift Rocks Gen Z: Restaurants Warn Of Spending Drop As Student Loan "Default Cliff" Arrives

The Trump administration faces a worsening macroeconomic backdrop for younger, lower- and middle-income consumers, burdened by student debt, costly auto loans, high apartment rents, and depleted savings amid a persistently high interest rate environment. 

Early signs of financial strain emerged at the tail end of the summer, outlined in our note:

• First Tricolor Subprime Meltdown, Now UBS Warns: Consumer Weakness Spreading From Low-Income To Middle-Class

We've been tracking this alarming trend, which was reinforced by the latest warning from Goldman Delta One, Rich Privorotsky, who has gone "Defcon 1" on the rapidly deteriorating consumer.

Early signs of strain have emerged across the restaurant and casual dining segment, where management teams are flagging a noticeable pullback in discretionary spending among younger consumers. This cohort is increasingly shifting from dining out to at-home consumption, opting for groceries over restaurants as they can no longer justify $8 Starbucks coffee and $15 Chipotle burritos.

Last week, Goldman's Consumer specialist Scott Feiler published a red alert on "The Shifting Health of the US Consumer," warning of acute deterioration among the US middle class. 

Feiler followed up the warning with a weekend note that said, "Something has clearly changed with the consumer. Commentary from restaurants and grocers last week made that clear." 

He noted that consumer stocks are massive underperformers year-to-date (Restaurant group -21% YTD, Housing -7% YTD, Retail -3% YTD). 

However, he said, "It is worth noting that November is the best month for Consumer Discretionary of the year.  The last 5 years, the group is +8.4% during November, on average, with an 80% hit rate.  It is the largest outperformance month vs the market, on average, as well." 

Consumer Discretionary (GSXUCOND Index) Average Price Action By Month. November is The Strongest Month of the Year on an Absolute & Relative Basis.

Feiler previously noted that more companies are warning of signs of a slowdown across the consumer space, with weakness mainly across middle-income consumers, particularly those aged 25 to 35. The brunt of this has been observed across the restaurant space: 

$CMG Chipotle CEO: "A particularly challenged cohort is the 25- to 35-year-old age group. We believe that this trend is not unique to Chipotle and is occurring across all restaurants as well as many discretionary categories. This group is facing several headwinds, including…

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) November 2, 2025

$CAVA CEO also flags decline in visit frequency among guests aged 25–35.

"When we look at the data, it's more that the younger cohort that 25 to 35.... they don't have the steam that they had last year in the way that they were visiting or their frequency of visiting." https://t.co/o01FmE7PlC

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) November 5, 2025

$MCD McDonald's CEO: Low-income traffic is still down double digits

"We continue to see a bifurcated consumer base with QSR traffic from lower income consumers declining, nearly double digits in the third quarter, a trend that's persisted for nearly two years..and we believe the… https://t.co/lluh7PneDN

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) November 5, 2025

There's been increasing chatter about the notable negative shift in sentiment among younger consumers, which happened quite abruptly. We spoke with a senior analyst at one of the world's largest U.S.-based beverage companies who attributed the slowdown to tariffs. However, we disagree and believe the actual shock was the student loan "default cliff" that hit in late summer.

There are about 5.3 million student loan borrowers in default, and another 4.3 million borrowers are in "late-stage delinquency," or between 181 and 270 days late on their payments, according to a recent Congressional Research Service report based on Education Department data. Payments 270 days past due are considered in default.

We don't disagree that a slowing jobs market and tariffs are compounding pressures on consumers, but the unfolding mess tied to the student loan default cliff hitting younger borrowers is clearly a major driver behind the sharp shift in sentiment.

Given that Democrats have shifted so far to the left by fully embracing socialism and a sprinkle of Marxism, promising those who vote for them free bus rides, government-run supermarkets, and other free stuff, the question becomes how the Trump administration will win some of these youngsters struggling to survive. We do note the Trump administration recently offered to bail out farmers with tariff revenues... The admin should start looking at the kids ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 15:40

How Long Does US Depositors' Nerve Hold?

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via GnS Economics Newsletter,

I am returning to work slowly and will start with an update to the Bank Run Warning we issued on Friday.

Not a single financial institution sought funding through the SRF today (Wednesday), but this does not lead me to conclude that the risk of a banking crisis in the U.S. has passed. It just did not start right now.

While the borrowing from the Standing Repo Facility of the Fed has eased, for now, it does not indicate that the cash-drought some financial institutions are experiencing will be over.

The banks could have sought funding from other counterparties of the repo, or the beginning of the month could have brought more cash in.

The problem the banks currently face, relating to the government shutdown, is two-fold:

1. Money is accumulating in the U.S. Treasury General Account, and

2. Loan delinquencies are likely to be mounting.

The former implies that money is not moving from the government to the accounts of some 1.4 million government employees. The latter implies that, as government employees are not getting paid, some of them are not paying back their loans (principal and/or interest) either. Both of these diminish cash flow to banks. Like we noted in the warning on Friday:

What makes the situation precarious is the fragility of banks, which we documented in the Black Swan Outlook.

There has been a massive increase in bank lending during the past few quarters.

It is possible (likely) that some banks have been overly optimistic in the credit boom and are suddenly cash-starved because interest payments and loan repayments have ceased (from their excessive lending).

This may start rumors about the survivability of a bank or a group of banks, which could trigger a bank run in the current uncertain environment.

If there’s no shock, we can assume that the banking system keeps on functioning normally, ensured, for example, by the SRF, from which banks can obtain short-term liquidity to cover for deposit withdrawals.

However, banks are always at risk of failing due to the business model we want them to have. That is, we want to deposit our money in the bank and have it provide loans at the lowest possible interest rate for us. We also want instant access to our funds (demand deposits) or, alternatively, a higher yield (interest rate) to compensate for the lack of immediate access, like in savings accounts.

A standard commercial bank is a business that receives deposits and covers them with assets to balance its balance sheet (most U.S. regional banks operate like this). These assets can be in the form of loans to households and businesses, corporate or government bonds, or central bank reserves. Therefore, if all or a very high share of deposits are withdrawn, there simply is no bank anymore. Its business model fails. This directly implies that if we lose trust in a bank, no amount of reserves can save it from failing.

For example, a slew of bad news broke the trust of depositors in the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in mid-March 2023, resulting in a cataclysmic run on 87% of its deposit base in just a few days. No amount of reserves (which the bank had plenty of) could have saved SVB from the devastating outflow of deposits impairing its balance sheet. Thus, the bank failed and was taken over by authorities.

When I understood the role the gargantuan increase of easily-withdrawable demand deposits played behind the runs on SVB and Signature Bank, I thought that a nationwide bank run would almost surely follow the failures of SVB and Signature Bank. However, authorities managed to return the trust to the regional banking system better than I thought (by throwing a proverbial kitchen sink at it). It reminded me of how difficult it is to anticipate the timing and length of bank runs, even though I had warned about the fragility of the U.S. banking system just three weeks before the runs started. But, while the runs were halted, the problems remained.

The fact is that the U.S. banking system has been “run-prone” since 2022 (after the gargantuan increase in demand deposits), and the cash-drought created by the government shutdown is making it worse every passing day.

Hence, the likelihood of a negative shock breaking the trust of U.S. depositors in one or more banks currently grows by the day.

I worry.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 15:20

Apple Taps Rival Google's 1.2-Trillion-Parameter AI Model To Power Siri

Remember when the iPhone 16 launched in September 2024 and Apple promised "Apple Intelligence" features, such as an AI-powered Siri upgrade capable of handling autonomous tasks, that never fully materialized. 

For now, Apple will integrate Google's 1.2 trillion-parameter Gemini model to overhaul Siri, the most alarming sign yet that Tim Cook has to rely on outside AI technology.

This AI agreement will cost Cook $1 billion annually until Siri's upcoming "Linwood" upgrade, targeted for iOS 26.4 next spring, will feature an in-house 1-trillion-parameter model, according to Bloomberg, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

Here are some key details on why Apple is turning to Google for AI support:

• Gemini will handle Siri's summarizer and planner functions, allowing for more complex reasoning and contextual understanding, while Apple's own smaller models continue managing simpler requests. 

• The Gemini model will operate on Apple's Private Cloud Compute servers, keeping user data isolated from Google.

• Apple tested OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude but ultimately went with Google's model. 

Shares of Apple and Google initially jumped on the news, but the gains quickly faded.

In short, one of the world's largest tech giants missed the AI hype cycle - unable to deliver a viable product for consumers and forced to rely on a rival's technology instead. Whether this marks the peak of the AI hype cycle or the beginning of Apple's fading appeal, one thing is clear: Tim Cook now depends on Google, a sobering reality for the company worth nearly $4 trillion. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 15:00

 

 

I’ve been thinking about the president’s second-term tariff policy for about 8 months now. Even before the April 2nd liberation day, they appeared unlawful to me. I wrote about it a few times; I tracked down Neal Katyal, the attorney who argued the appellate case to be a guest on Masters in Business.

It didn’t seem to me like enough of Wall Street was paying close attention to this.

Today, I listened to the arguments at the Supreme Court (via C/SPAN). I haven’t practiced law in three decades, but you don’t need to be an active attorney to recognize a beatdown when you hear one. Had this been a boxing match, it would have been stopped on a TKO (technical knockout).

I’m going to go out on a limb: All (or nearly all) of the Trump tariffs will be overturned by SCOTUS as unconstitutional. It should be 9-0, but several of the justices have given up any pretense of being neutral, nonpartisan arbiters; my guess is 7-2 or (maybe) 6-3 will affirm the Court of Appeals decision in favor of overturning the tariffs. If you surveyed Constitutional Law professors, I bet it is close to 95% agree tariffs are the province of Congress (as per the Constitution, Article 3, Section 8), and that these Executive orders are unconstitutional.

Considering the plaintiffs have won at both trial (Court of Trade) and at the full en banc hearing in the DC Court of Appeals, this isn’t a big surprise. I suspect any company that paid an unconstitutional tariff will be entitled to a refund. Look at the companies that suffered the largest stock price damage in the first weeks of April; I don’t imagine consumers will be able to easily get a refund.

Perhaps Wall Street has overlooked this, but the market has caught on. It’s very likely that a large part of the rally over the past 6 months was the market anticipating this outcome.

Before I get too far ahead of myself, let’s wait for the SCOTUS decision in Trump vs VOS Selections. Hopefully, we see this before the new year…

~~~

For those interested, lots of useful links follow, including audio of the SCOTUS arguments, interesting recent articles, and my prior discussions on the topic as well.

 

 

 

Previously:
Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”? (July 31, 2025)

The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Are Tariffs a New US VAT Tax? (March 31, 2025)

MiB: Special Edition: Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 3, 2025)

Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 8, 2025)

Which States Could Suffer the Most From Trade War Tariffs? (September 16, 2019)

 

See also:
SCOTUS Bench Memo Trump Tariff Case: Separation of Powers, Delegation, Emergencies (Just Security, November 3, 2025)

The Court Must Decide If the Constitution Means What It Says (The Atlantic, November 5, 2025)

Mystery conservative donors bankroll opposition to Trump’s tariffs (Washington Post, November 5, 2025)

The Supreme Court should liberate us from ‘liberation day’ (The Hill, 11/04/25)

Striking Down the Tariffs Won’t Hurt Anybody (Cato, October 28, 2025)

 

 

~~~

Disclosure: Both I and RWM clients own the full run of these industrials via ETFs, mutual funds, or direct indexing, including individual stocks or options: Caterpillar, Deere, Ford, GM, etc.

 

 

 

The post Tariffs Likely To Be Overturned… appeared first on The Big Picture.

Biden-Appointed D.C. Judge Orders White House To Provide Sign Language Interpreters For Press Briefings

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ruled on Nov. 5 that the White House must provide American Sign Language (ASL) interpretation during press briefings held by President Donald Trump and press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

The decision followed a lawsuit filed in May by the National Association of the Deaf (NAD) and Derrick Ford, a deaf individual, which alleged that the Trump administration “inexplicably stopped” using ASL interpreters since taking office, denying deaf Americans access to real-time White House communications.

In a 26-page order, President-Biden-appointed U.S. District Judge Amir Ali in Washington said the plaintiffs are likely to prevail on their claim that the administration’s actions violated the Rehabilitation Act, a federal law that aims to ensure people with disabilities have access to federal activities.

“White House press briefings engage the American people on important issues affecting their daily lives—in recent months, war, the economy, and healthcare, and, in recent years, a global pandemic,” Ali said in the order. “The exclusion of deaf Americans from that programming, in addition to likely violating the Rehabilitation Act, is clear and present harm that the court cannot meaningfully remedy after the fact.”

The judge said that English captions and transcripts alone are not enough to make briefings accessible to people who use ASL, as many deaf individuals do not communicate in English, according to the ruling.

The White House had argued that requiring the president to share his platform with ASL interpreters at all press briefings would cause a “major incursion on his central prerogatives.”

The judge rejected this argument, noting that ASL interpretation could be implemented without requiring interpreters to be in the same room as the speaker. Ali added that the White House did not clarify what “major incursion” it was referring to.

The plaintiffs also asked the court to mandate ASL interpretation for press briefings and events held by First Lady Melania Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Second Lady Usha Vance, as well as for all videos posted on the White House’s websites and social media channels. Ali said they had not presented sufficient evidence to justify that request.

Ali ordered the Trump administration to file a status report by Nov. 7 that “apprises the court of their compliance with this order.”

Neither the NAD nor the White House responded to a request for comment by publication time.

The lawsuit marks the NAD’s second suit against the White House over access to ASL interpretation. In 2020, the NAD sued to require ASL interpretation for COVID-19-related press briefings.

That case was resolved when the White House implemented a policy to provide interpreters for all press briefings conducted by the president, vice president, first lady, second gentleman, and press secretary, according to the group.

The White House stopped providing ASL interpretation in January this year and has not included interpreters at any press briefings since, the NAD said in a May 28 statement.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 13:20

US Urges UN To Lift Sanctions On Syrian Leader Ahead Of Washington Visit

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The United States has put forth a draft resolution within the U.N. Security Council meant to end sanctions on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the Islamist militant and political group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

The proposal comes ahead of al-Sharaa’s anticipated meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House, set for next Monday.

The Security Council has regularly approved travel exemptions for al-Sharaa this year, meaning the White House meeting does not hinge on the outcome of the U.S. proposal.

The draft resolution, seen by Reuters on Tuesday, also advocates for the repeal of sanctions against Syria’s Interior Minister Anas Khattab.

The U.N. sanctions include a travel ban, asset freeze, and arms embargo.

It is unclear when a vote on the draft could be held. At least nine of the 15 council constituents need to vote in favor of the proposal for it to be enacted. However, Russia, China, the United States, France, and the UK each hold a veto.

Washington has for many months urged the Security Council to cease the sanctions on the regime in Syria.

President Bashar al-Assad was deposed in December 2024 after HTS-led militants effectively won a 13-year civil war in the country.

The country has languished since May 2014 on the U.N. Security Council’s sanctions list aimed at al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced al-Sharaa’s visit to the White House at a press briefing on Tuesday.

“When the president was in the Middle East, he made the historic decision to lift sanctions on Syria to give them a real chance at peace, and I think the administration, we’ve seen good progress on that front under their new leadership,” Leavitt said.

In July this year, Trump rescinded unilateral U.S. sanctions on Syria via executive order, saying it was “a chance at greatness” for the Syrian people, but he kept sanctions on Assad and other leaders.

The Trump administration also revoked the foreign terrorist organization designation for HTS.

U.N. monitors said there are no active al-Qaeda-HTS ties in a July report.

Trump last met with al-Sharaa in mid-May in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, where the U.S. president urged the Syrian leader to join the Abraham Accords. According to the White House, Trump also asked al-Sharaa to “tell all foreign terrorists to leave Syria, deport Palestinian terrorists, help the U.S. prevent the resurgence of ISIS, and assume responsibility for ISIS detention centers in Northeast Syria.”

On Sept. 22, al-Sharaa addressed the U.N. General Assembly—the first time a Syrian president had done so since 1967—where he called for full sanctions relief and highlighted his country’s reconstruction needs.

[ZH: Of course, as we detailed here, this new 'friendship' has an ulterior motive...]

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 12:40

"Contrary To Human Nature": VDH Reminds Us That Mamdani-Style Socialism Always Ends In Disaster

Victor Davis Hanson is warning that Democrats' move towards socialism and their embrace of figures such as Zohran Mamdani is not going to end well.

Mamdani, a socialist who's promised to redistribute wealth, and insists that "taxation isn't theft, capitalism is" - is pushing politics that VDH says are 'contrary to human nature.'

"Historically, socialists always come in after capitalists have made prosperity, and then they offer and improve prosperity," he told Fox News' Laura Ingraham. "And it’s contrary to human nature. People like initiative. They like pride in their property. Some people like to work a lot and get compensated."

According to Hanson, when the state is in control of human innovation and productivity, it it 'has to be repressive.'

"It gives you that freedom of opportunity. And then the society at large benefits, Laura, from all these millions of agendas and ideas that improve, that people are free to innovate and to take experiments and risk. But when the state monopolizes all of that, it’s contrary to human nature, and then it has to be repressive," Hanson said. "So all of these social experiments, even if they’re democratic, they end up repressive. At the worst form, it’s no accident that the greatest mass murderers in history were Mao [Zedong] and [Joseph] Stalin, 30 million, 60 million, and they were radical communists, and even people like Hitler, National Socialist Party."

And of course, whoever is running a communist regime is living a life of privilege.

"Talented people who can help the economy, who are successful or demonized, they flee. People who want things for nothing come in. There’s open borders," Hanson continued. "They destroy personal liberty, and they stamp out any dissent or criticism. And there’s always an elite, the billionaire Castro brothers, Chavez and Maduro. They always are never subject to their consequences, their ideology. Here in California, we are becoming socialist."

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 12:20