Individual Economists

Federal Prosecutors Probe Guggenheim, Billionaire Dem Donor Walter's Insurers

Zero Hedge -

Federal Prosecutors Probe Guggenheim, Billionaire Dem Donor Walter's Insurers

Federal investigators are taking a closer look at billionaire Mark Walter's financial empire, with criminal and regulatory inquiries now spanning Guggenheim Partners and two life insurance companies under his control, according to Bloomberg.

The investigation, which began last year, initially focused on Guggenheim's $362 billion asset management business before expanding to Delaware Life Insurance Co. and Clear Spring Life and Annuity Co., according to people familiar with the matter.

Bloomberg writes that both insurers revealed in recent regulatory filings that they were served with grand jury subpoenas in February.

Prosecutors are examining whether the companies properly disclosed private credit investments tied to affiliated businesses within Walter's network. The companies also said the Justice Department's investigation is proceeding alongside a separate SEC probe.

People familiar with the matter said the FBI seized at least one mobile phone under a search warrant last September, although it isn't clear which part of the broader investigation the device was connected to. No allegations have been filed, and investigations of this type can conclude without criminal charges or civil enforcement.

Following the subpoenas, the insurers launched an internal review that identified financial reporting "errors." Delaware Life subsequently revised its disclosures, revealing roughly $16 billion in additional affiliated private credit investments. The change increased related-party holdings to at least $17 billion, representing about 39% of invested assets, versus roughly $1.4 billion, or 3%, previously reported.

The disclosure led S&P Global Ratings to revise Delaware Life's outlook from stable to negative, while leaving its A- financial strength rating unchanged.

"TWG is aware of and cooperating with the investigation," the company said. Group 1001, the parent of Delaware Life and Clear Spring, also said:

"Our capital position and liquidity remain strong, and our financial strength ratings are unchanged."

Finally, we note that Walter has historically supported Democratic candidates and causes through his campaign contributions. Walter's personal contributions include support to the Democratic National Committee and to Barack Obama’s reelection campaign in 2011.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 15:45

Trump Orders Review Related To Climate Guidance For Federal Judges

Zero Hedge -

Trump Orders Review Related To Climate Guidance For Federal Judges

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has ordered federal officials to review conduct related to climate guidance included in a scientific reference manual for federal judges, which he described as politically biased and based on discredited science.

President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington on July 6, 2026. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

"These Manuals have been totally discredited," Trump said in a June 19 post on Truth Social.

He was referring to a February decision by the U.S. federal judiciary to withdraw the climate science chapter of the newest edition of its "Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence."

The manual is published by the judiciary's research arm, the Federal Judicial Center, in cooperation with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, which includes the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Sciences is an independent nonprofit organization chartered by Congress in 1863 that receives federal funding to provide scientific advice to the government.

The manual, in its fourth edition, was released in December.

Judges rely on the manual "in identifying issues commonly in dispute and to help judges reach an informed and reasoned assessment of those issues based on expert evidence that is faithful to the law and within the boundaries of scientifically sound knowledge," according to the Federal Judicial Center's website.

The guidance is not binding but can help federal judges and others in handling complex scientific and technical evidence.

"Our Nation's Federal Judges deserve Facts and Science, not Political Fraud and False Science on Climate," Trump wrote. "Our Taxpayers should not be funding Climate Fraud, and Judges should never have relied upon it."

The president said the manual would be reviewed by federal suspension and agency debarment officials for political bias.

Political Bias

The decision to withdraw the chapter titled "Reference Guide on Climate Science" was in response to complaints by 27 Republican state attorneys general, who argued the guidance was not "independent" or "impartial" as it declared that "only one preferred view is 'within the boundaries of scientifically sound knowledge.'"

In their Jan. 29 letter, the attorneys general - led by West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey - argued the chapter "places the judiciary firmly on one side of some of the most hotly disputed questions in current litigation: climate-related science and 'attribution.'"

They said the authors, Jessica Wentz and Radley Horton, limited their expert consultations to those who aligned with their conception of consensus, citing experts from the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) but not experts from the U.S. Department of Energy.

"By predetermining scientific underpinnings, the Manual effectively prejudges federalism questions that should be resolved through litigation. That sounds nothing like a 'dispassionate guide,'" they said.

"If the Center can predetermine scientific questions in climate cases, what prevents it from doing the same for pharmaceutical liability, election disputes, or Second Amendment cases? The precedent is dangerous regardless of one's views on climate change."

They also said that the section was "rife with methodology issues," that the authors and Columbia University were supportive of climate-related litigation, and that the chapter "seems intended to ensure that the judiciary will continue to accept their views uncritically."

Trump said in his post that the manuals "were used by Judges to decide massive 'Climate Change' Cases, and have created huge losses across our Country."

Wentz and Horton told the federal judiciary in a Feb. 25 letter defending their chapter: "The anthropogenic origin of climate change is the only scientific finding on climate change that the chapter presents as a 'settled' fact. The chapter does not suggest that other aspects of climate science have been 'unequivocally' established."

They said the chapter acknowledges that there are varying degrees of "scientific uncertainty and confidence with regards to the detection attribution, and projection of different types of climate impacts."

It does not "take a position as to whether specific impacts or injuries (of the sort that would be at issue in a lawsuit) are definitively attributable climate change," they added.

The manual "explains scientific approaches and explores scientific uncertainties and limits," Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan wrote in the foreword. "It aids in assessing the uses - and the misuses - of scientific and other technical evidence. ... Yet case in and case out, the instruction that the manual offers in scientific principles and methods can improve the quality of judicial decision making."

The National Academy of Sciences did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump's statements and the announced review.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 15:25

Biden-Appointed Judge Rules Former FEMA CFO's Firing Over Luxury Hotels For Illegals Was Unlawful

Zero Hedge -

Biden-Appointed Judge Rules Former FEMA CFO's Firing Over Luxury Hotels For Illegals Was Unlawful

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ruled on Friday that a former FEMA chief financial officer was illegally fired by the Trump administration over what it claimed were millions spent by the agency on luxury hotels for illegal immigrants in New York City.

Mary Comans’s termination in February 2025 amidd allegations of misused funds had been amplified by then-head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Elon Musk and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Biden-appointed District Judge Michael Nachmanoff decided she is entitled to a name-clearing hearing over the issue.

Nachmanoff, of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, ordered that lawyers for Comans and the Trump administration confer and within 14 days submit a joint proposal outlining a process for the hearing.

The judge indicated that discovery and a full evidentiary hearing before a federal magistrate judge would be appropriate to address previous statements made by Musk, the Trump administration, and Comans’s allegations of her politically motivated termination without due process.

Lawyers from the progressive nonprofit Democracy Defenders Fund and four other firms who represent Comans called Nachmanoff’s ruling a “landmark” win in a statement.

“Mary Comans is a career public servant who had the courage to challenge the Trump regime’s unlawful termination,” attorney Craig Becker of Democracy Defenders Fund said. “Today’s decision is a resounding victory for the rule of law and our vital civil service. It sends a clear message that no administration is above the law, no public servant should be punished for doing their job with integrity, and no president can erase decades of civil service protections.”

Comans and her attorneys argued she was fired without due process, in violation of the Constitution, depriving her of both property and liberty.

They alleged that her notice of termination stated no official reason and was also in violation of the Civil Service Reform Act, which provides protection for federal employees.

“This is a reminder that our federal courts remain an essential check on executive abuse of power, and we will continue our fight to remedy the full scope of the harm that the president has done to our civil service,” Becker said.

President Donald Trump has fired many government employees during his second term in office. The administration has said Trump’s constitutional ability to fire federal workers cannot be constrained.

In Comans’s firing, the Trump administration said it was allowed to terminate her employment with FEMA under Article II of the Constitution, which endows a president with executive power.

DHS accused Comans and three other FEMA officials of authorizing a $59 million payment to fund housing for illegal immigrants in luxury hotels in New York City.

Homeland Security said the former CFO and others circumvented “leadership to unilaterally make egregious payments.”

The nearly $60 million payment was uncovered by DOGE.

“That money is meant for American disaster relief and instead is being spent on high-end hotels for illegals!” Musk wrote on X at the time.

The Supreme Court ruled last month on the president’s firing power. It could play a role in the upcoming hearing between Comans and the Trump administration.

The justices on June 29 both expanded and limited Trump’s ability to fire heads of federal agencies.

One case before the high court was a victory for Trump, with the justices allowing him to fire a member of the Federal Trade Commission. But in another case, the Supreme Court blocked the president’s firing of a Federal Reserve board member, sending the issue back to lower courts.

FEMA is an agency within Homeland Security, which falls under the executive branch of the federal government.

Neither the Department of Justice, FEMA, nor DHS responded to requests for comment before publication.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 14:50

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Reaches Highest Level In Almost A Year

Zero Hedge -

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Reaches Highest Level In Almost A Year

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The average weekly rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at its highest level in nearly a year, contributing to elevated housing costs and dampening buyer interest.

A home for sale in Alhambra, Calif., on Aug. 28, 2025. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

For the most recent week, the mortgage rate was at 6.55 percent, according to a July 16 statement by Freddie Mac. This is the highest level since the week ending Aug. 27, 2025, when the rate was at 6.56 percent. Since mid-May, rates have consistently hovered around 6.5 percent.

Rates have risen consecutively over the past two weeks, from 6.43 percent for the week ending July 1 to 6.55 percent currently.

Meanwhile, pending home sales in the country declined 2.2 percent for the four weeks ending July 12 compared to the four-week period ending July 5, according to a statement from real estate brokerage Redfin.

First-time homebuyers are facing a "tough time" breaking into the housing market, Christine Kooiker, a Redfin Premier agent in Grand Rapids, Michigan, said in the statement.

"High mortgage rates mean that even homes in the most affordable price point - under $350,000 in the Grand Rapids area - are a stretch for a lot of buyers, and they're hard to find and competitive," Kooiker said.

Many buyers are "sitting on the sidelines, too, because they're locked into low mortgage rates or can't find a new home they love."

Similar findings were made by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which, in a July 16 statement, reported a 5.4 percent month-over-month dip in pending sales in June.

The decrease was most pronounced in the Midwest, followed by the West, South, and Northeast.

"The highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and the record-high national median home price together are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers," NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said in the statement.

Housing Affordability

Lawmakers have taken action to ease the burdens on prospective homebuyers and make housing more affordable for Americans.

On July 11, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law. The legislation aims to ensure housing affordability through various measures, such as rolling back permits and regulations, and offering financial support to homebuyers, builders, and state and local governments.

The bill was passed by the House and Senate last month. However, President Donald Trump refused to sign the bill until the election integrity bill, the SAVE America Act, was passed by Congress.

According to Article I of the U.S. Constitution, if a bill is not returned by the president within 10 days after being presented, it shall become law. Trump's deadline to veto the bill was July 10.

The bill "will cut red tape, lower costs, and boost the supply of housing," Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.) said in a July 13 statement.

"We need to build on this momentum and keep rolling up our sleeves to tackle the housing crisis confronting far too many American families."

Meanwhile, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes declined in July from the previous month, according to a July 16 statement from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index was at 36 in July, the 15th straight month it has remained below the 40 level. This is the longest stretch of monthly values below 40 since 2012.

NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz cited housing affordability as the "primary challenge" facing the home building industry.

NAHB chairman Bill Owens said that many potential buyers continue to hesitate to purchase homes as they wait for mortgage rates to come down and for more clarity on inflation and the economic outlook.

While the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act has some important provisions addressing obstacles faced by buyers and builders, "these reforms will take time to implement," Owens said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 14:05

FBI Calls Incendiary Attack On Manhattan Federal Building An "Anti-Government Attack"

Zero Hedge -

FBI Calls Incendiary Attack On Manhattan Federal Building An "Anti-Government Attack"

Summary:

  • FBI Calls incident "anti-government attack on a federal facility
  • Suspect had "ICE Off Our Streets" Sign 
  • Suspect Arrested 
  • FBI New York Joint Terrorism Task Force is investigating the incident
  • FBI tells Fox News "an individual deployed an incendiary device
  • Immigration agents and FBI rushed out, guns drawn, and FPS apprehended the suspect
  • Explosion Hits Outside 26 Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan

For years, left-wing political violence in the US was often treated as isolated and/or a non-issue. The Trump administration is now calling it a domestic terrorism threat.

FBI Assistant Director in Charge James Barnacle described the incident outside 26 Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan earlier today as an "anti-government attack on a federal facility." 

Watch the suspected left-wing radical attack the federal building, which houses offices for agencies including DHS, ICE, USCIS, the FBI, and the Social Security Administration.

Suspect identified as Andrew Arrabaca ... 

Barnacle also said the suspect carried a sign reading "ICE Off Our Streets," which suggests an association with left-wing groups.

Even The Atlantic had to recently admit there was a troubling rise in left-wing terror...

Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed delegations from 65 nations about the alarming rise of far-left terrorism across the West.

Socialist NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani called the incident "deeply disturbing." Yet Mamdani and his unhinged anti-American DSA-ers have pushed an increasingly hostile climate toward federal law enforcement.

Suspect Arrested FBI New York Joint Terrorism Task Force Investigating 

The FBI tells Fox News' Bill Melugin:

"This morning an individual deployed an incendiary device outside of 26 Federal Plaza. The individual has been taken into custody and the FBI New York Joint Terrorism Task Force is investigating the incident."

Melugin continued:

NYPD tells FOX there was a "found firearm" in relation to this event, but couldn't confirm if it was found on the suspect.

The attack at 26 Federal Plaza, which houses offices for agencies including DHS, ICE, USCIS, the FBI, and the Social Security Administration, comes days after Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned of far-left terrorism across the West.

Another view:

Explosion Reported Outside 26 Federal Plaza In Lower Manhattan

New footage shows what appears to be a fire and a person being arrested outside 26 Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan.

"Moment of EXPLOSION that went off outside of the 26 Federal Plaza in NYC around 8:30am this morning, with Immigration agents and FBI Rushing out guns drawn and FPS apprehending the suspect. Sidewalk has been shut down and building evacuated," FreedomNews wrote on X. 

Notably, the building houses several federal agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the FBI, the Social Security Administration, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

There is no additional information at this time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 13:45

Judge Slaps A 14-Day Timeout On Paramount-Warner Bros. Mega-Merger

Zero Hedge -

Judge Slaps A 14-Day Timeout On Paramount-Warner Bros. Mega-Merger

A federal judge just threw a wrench into one of the biggest media shake-ups in years. On Monday, U.S. District Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin (Biden) temporarily blocked Paramount Skydance's $110 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, giving a coalition of 12 state attorneys general a short-term win in their fight to kill the deal.

The temporary restraining order lasts 14 days - half the 28 days the states had requested - and prevents Paramount from closing the transaction that would combine two historic Hollywood studios, two major streaming services (Paramount+ and Max), and significant news assets under David Ellison, son of Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, leading the charge, argues the merger would "extinguish competition" in key areas: wide theatrical film releases, big blockbuster distribution, and the market for basic cable channels. The states put numbers on it, alleging the combined company would control 27 percent of wide-release theatrical distribution, 30 percent of anticipated blockbusters, and 27 percent of the basic cable bundle. In plain terms, they say it would mean higher prices, lower quality, and less choice for theaters, cable providers, and viewers everywhere. The states claim it violates Section 7 of the Clayton Antitrust Act, the classic law aimed at stopping deals that substantially lessen competition. All 12 attorneys general are Democrats.

Paramount is firing back hard. The company calls the lawsuit one of the weakest merger challenges in modern antitrust history, notes it already has DOJ clearance plus approvals from places like Australia and China, and vows to fight vigorously. They argue the states are ignoring the brutal competitive realities of today's media landscape, where streaming giants, tech platforms, and cord-cutting have upended everything.

The DOJ signoff came after its antitrust division closed an eight-month review that examined more than two million documents - concluding the deal could strengthen competition across streaming, traditional television, and theatrical distribution. State attorneys general retain independent authority to sue regardless.

There's real urgency for Paramount: they're on the hook for a "ticking fee" of 25 cents per Warner Bros. share every quarter if the deal doesn't close by September 30. That works out to roughly $7 million a day, or more than $600 million per quarter - serious money.

  • Paramount side: 114-year-old studio, Paramount+, CBS, MTV, Nickelodeon, and more.
  • Warner side: 116-year-old studio, HBO, CNN, plus iconic franchises like Batman and Superman.

If it goes through, David Ellison would control an entertainment behemoth spanning film, TV, streaming, and news.

This state lawsuit is the biggest threat so far, but it's not the only one. The EU is reviewing it, the UK culture secretary is considering intervention over media concentration worries, the Writers Guild has its own antitrust suit over wages and jobs, and consumers have challenged the streaming combination (though that effort was denied an injunction).

There's also a political undercurrent. Larry Ellison has been an ally of President Trump, who has publicly pushed for new ownership of CNN and recently praised the family. David Ellison has already started shaking things up at CBS News, bringing in Bari Weiss to revamp "60 Minutes" and the evening broadcast.

For now, the merger is in limbo. Expect intense legal wrangling over the next couple of weeks as Paramount pushes to get it back on track and the states try to build their case for a longer block. In an industry already disrupted by streaming wars and cord-cutting, this battle is about who gets to dominate the next era of Hollywood and media.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 13:10

RNC Sues To Stop Non-Residents From Voting In Six States

Zero Hedge -

RNC Sues To Stop Non-Residents From Voting In Six States

While it seems like common sense that living in a state should be a prerequisite to voting there, the Republican National Committee is suing six states to stop them from doing so.

Fresh off a court win in North Carolina, the RNC has filed lawsuits against Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, New Jersey, Virginia, and Nebraska, each targeting a version of the same loophole. In these states, a person who has never set foot as a resident within their borders can still cast an absentee ballot there, often because a parent or legal guardian once lived in the state decades ago. 

"If you've never lived in a state, you shouldn't be voting in its elections," RNC Chairman Joe Gruters told the Daily Signal.

"The RNC already put a stop to this unconstitutional loophole in North Carolina, and we're taking Nebraska, Colorado, Nevada, and New Jersey to court to do the same," Gruters added,

"We'll keep fighting to ensure elections are only decided by legal residents."

The mechanism behind this quirk traces back to federal guidance for overseas voting. According to the Federal Voting Assistance Program website, "In some states, U.S. citizens who were born abroad—and have never resided in the United States—are eligible to vote absentee." Several states extended that logic further than Congress likely intended, allowing people who were born overseas and never lived stateside at all to vote based on a parent's old address.

The RNC is not coming after military voters or diplomats. The committee says it firmly supports the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), the decades-old law that lets service members and foreign service officers vote from wherever the government has stationed them. To secure legal standing in each state, the RNC is partnering with the relevant state party, a candidate, or both.

The North Carolina case set the template. In June, the Wake County Superior Court struck down a state law permitting people born overseas who had never lived in North Carolina to vote there anyway, handing the RNC a win over the state elections board and establishing that these arrangements are vulnerable to a straightforward constitutional challenge.

Nevada is shaping up as the marquee fight of the current round. The RNC has joined the state Republican Party and Republican secretary of state nominee Jim Marchant in challenging a law that allows people who never lived in Nevada, and in some cases never lived in the United States at all, to vote there based solely on a parent's or guardian's past residency. The plaintiffs argue the arrangement violates Nevada's constitution, which requires voters to have "actually, as opposed to constructively" resided in the state. Constructive residency is a fittingly bureaucratic term for a system built on the honor of an ancestor's zip code.

Despite the commonsense nature of the lawsuit, Nevada Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar, a Democrat, called it "an attack on the voting rights of eligible U.S. citizens living abroad" and warned that unwinding the law could hurt military families, even though the RNC made it clear that’s not who their lawsuit is about. "They risk everything to defend our freedoms, including the fundamental right to vote, and Nevada has a responsibility to protect their access to the ballot and the rights of the families who serve alongside them,” he added.

"Children born overseas should not be punished because their parents served, worked, or were stationed outside the United States," Aguilar continued, saying, "Nevada will not turn its back on military families simply because their service took them away from home."

Despite Aguilar’s claims, the lawsuits actually target civilians with no service record and no residency claim beyond a relative's former mailing address, not the men and women stationed abroad under UOCAVA.

“People should have full faith and confidence in the system,” RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said last week. “What we want is to have elections be safe and secure. We want everybody who's eligible to vote to be able to vote. But I don't know why it's so hard. The question is, why do we have 150 lawsuits trying to make sure we protect democracy and try to make sure these elections are safe and secure? It's because the other side knows they'll do everything in their ability to hold on to power and control.”

Gruters added, “And that's why they're allowing tens of millions of illegals into the country, they want them to be able to eventually have voting rights, and so we've stopped, you know, non-citizens from voting. Some of our biggest wins is knocking them off the voting rules. But the work never ends.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 13:00

A 28 Item Grocery Order From Target That Cost $64.50 In 2020 Now Costs $158.30

Zero Hedge -

A 28 Item Grocery Order From Target That Cost $64.50 In 2020 Now Costs $158.30

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The cost of living has become absolutely suffocating for millions of Americans. For years, the bureaucrats in Washington have been feeding us numbers that show that the rate of inflation is low, but it is obvious to everyone that what they are telling us is simply not true. Many of the items that I regularly purchase at the grocery store have more than doubled in price over the past decade. Some have more than tripled in price. When I get to the register to check out, I feel like asking the cashier which organ I should donate to pay for my groceries.

We have reached a stage where grocery prices are causing extreme financial stress for families all over America. One man recently caused quite a stir on social media when he revealed that a grocery order from Target that cost $64.50 in 2020 is now $158.30 in 2026

This post has already been viewed a million times.

The reason why it is so popular is because it instantly resonates with people.

Everyone knows that grocery prices have risen to absurd levels, and yet the statisticians in Washington keep assuring us that everything is fine.

I don’t believe them.

Do you?

The Washington Post just conducted a poll that found that 66 percent of Americans consider the cost of groceries to be unaffordable.

That figure has risen by 21 percent just since February…

Americans are feeling worse about the price of groceries than they were before the war with Iran began, a Washington Post-Ipsos poll finds.

About two-thirds, or 66 percent, of Americans say they would describe the cost of groceries as unaffordable, up sharply from the 45 percent who said the same thing in February before the conflict started.

Partisanship continues to play a big role in perceptions, with half of Republicans saying groceries are affordable in the latest poll, compared with about one-quarter of independents and Democrats.

Housing is even worse.

The median price of an existing home in the United States has now surpassed the $440,000 mark

With a landmark housing affordability bill in political limbo, U.S. home prices have hit an all-time high.

The median price of existing homes in June was $440,660, up 1.8% from $432,700 a year ago, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Home prices have risen for 36 straight months.

“Housing affordability remains low under slowing wage growth and stronger home price growth,” Ershang Liang, an economist with PNC Economics Research, said in a report.

Who can afford to pay that much for a house?

Rental prices have also gone through the roof.

If you can believe it, the average rent on a one bedroom apartment in Manhattan is now a whopping $5,408 a month

The city’s housing crisis has hit “DefCon 1” — with average rents for a one-bedroom in Manhattan hitting an all-time high of nearly $5,500 last month, and Brooklyn following suit, according to new data and critics.

“We need bold action. This is a crisis,’’ New York City Comptroller Mark Levine posted on X over the weekend, along with a link to the latest figures from the inhabit blog by real-estate giant Corcoran Group.

The dismal June stats reveal that renters paid an average of $5,408 for a one-bedroom in Manhattan, with studio prices not far behind at $4,014.

It isn’t a mystery why most Americans are struggling in this sort of an environment.

Many are turning to debt in a desperate attempt to make ends meet

Many American families are struggling to make ends meet on their incomes alone and have resorted to credit cards, payday loans, and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) options for groceries, according to nonprofit research center Urban Institute.

The findings are based on a survey of 18-to 64-year-old working-age adults conducted in December 2025. About 8.7 percent of adults said they used a credit card for groceries and were unable to make the minimum payment, up from 7.1 percent in 2023, the Urban Institute said in a July 13 report. This suggests “worsening financial distress” among families.

Almost one in 10 used BNPL to pay for groceries, out of which more than a third missed a timely repayment last year.

Unfortunately, when you keep piling up debt a day of reckoning eventually arrives.

Coming into this year, alarmingly large numbers of Americans were getting behind on their credit cards

And the number of foreclosures in the U.S. is way above the highly elevated pace that we witnessed last year…

Foreclosures across the U.S. ballooned in the first half of the year, a sign of the increasing financial strain facing the nation’s homeowners.

Foreclosure filings reached nearly 228,000 from January to June, up 21% from a year ago and 28% from two years ago, according to data released Thursday from real estate data company ATTOM.

Rising foreclosure rates indicate that more homeowners are in financial distress, Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, said in a statement. Homes go into foreclosure when the owner falls behind on mortgage payments, often due to extenuating life circumstances such as a job loss. ATTOM defines foreclosures as default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions.

This reminds me so much of the conditions that we experienced just before the financial crisis of 2008.

Unfortunately, the cost of living is only going to go higher.

The cost of energy directly affects the cost of everything else, and it appears that the Strait of Hormuz is going to be closed for an extended period of time.

The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. has nearly reached four dollars again, and the average price of a gallon of diesel has already risen above the five dollar mark

US gas prices have rocketed higher during the on-again, off-again war with Iran.

After a brief respite, the average price for gas has surged 15 cents in a week to $3.94 a gallon and appears headed north of $4 again. Diesel, which shows up in customers’ shipping costs, topped $5 a gallon again Thursday for the first time in 3 weeks, according to AAA.

It serves as a painful reminder of how the military conflict in the Persian Gulf has a direct effect on your wallet.

Of even greater importance is what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global fertilizer market.

As Mike Adams has pointed out, without sufficient quantities of nitrogen fertilizer we won’t even come close to producing enough food for everyone…

Admittedly, I have failed to explain the stakes clearly enough. For months, I have written about fertilizer supply chains, the Haber-Bosch process, and the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz. But the gravity of this crisis has not sunk in for most people. Let me put it as plainly as I can: The global population of more than 8 billion people depends on a fragile web of natural gas, oil, and downstream chemistry that took 60+ years to build on this planet. If we lose 25 percent of these critical substances, we lose 25 percent of the population. That is 2 billion people. Here is why that math is inescapable.

As I documented in my article “The Haber-Bosch House of Cards,” the single chemical reaction that fixes nitrogen from the air into fertilizer is responsible for feeding roughly half of humanity [1]. That process requires vast quantities of natural gas. The Persian Gulf region, especially Qatar and Iran, supplies much of that gas. When the Trump administration launched its war on Iran in February 2026 and the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, the global fertilizer supply chain began to collapse. This is not a prediction of future famine. The famine is already baked in. But it could still get a whole lot worse depending on how things go from here.

We could be facing multiple years when global food production is at depressed levels.

That means that food prices will go even higher in wealthy countries, and in poor countries there will be shortages.

Famine is one of the major trends that I am tracking, and what we are already witnessing in some parts of Africa is absolutely heartbreaking.

There is no magic button that we can press that is going to make these problems go away.

A crisis of historic proportions is now upon us, and we are still only in the very early stages of it.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 12:20

Transcript: Jason Wenk, Altruist founder and CEO

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: Jason Wenk, Altruist founder and CEO, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

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MASTERS IN BUSINESS Jason Wenk, Founder & CEO, Altruist

Hosted by Barry Ritholtz  ·  Bloomberg Radio  ·  Interview Transcript

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:00:08): This week on the podcast, yet another extra special guest. Jason Wenk is founder and CEO of Altruist, a new artificial-intelligence-driven custodian challenging a lot of the legacy entities like Fidelity and Schwab that are stuck with all of their old hardware and software. I thought the conversation was fascinating, and I think you will also. With no further ado, my interview of Jason Wenk.

Jason Wenk, welcome to Bloomberg.

JASON WENK (00:00:50): My pleasure. Such a great intro.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:00:52): So I’m fascinated by the through line of your career. You are constantly focusing on creating lower-cost, tech-enabled financial advice. But I’m gonna put a pin in that and come back — I gotta start with your background. You studied computer science at Grand Valley State University. What was the original career plan? Was it technology and computers, or finance?

JASON WENK (00:01:19): No, so I’d never taken a finance class. I’d never met anybody who had money. My family never owned any stocks or mutual funds. I didn’t know what an IRA was, or even a 401(k) for that matter. But I grew up in the eighties and nineties, so I remember getting our first personal computer in the mid-nineties. The internet started to pick up a little bit of speed in the late nineties, and that was my dream — to go to Silicon Valley and work at a dot-com. You probably recall the market peaked out around 1999, and then a pretty major crash ensued.

So very accidentally, I did an internship at Morgan Stanley at 19 years old. I was a bit of an odd duck in that I took a lot of college classes when I was in high school, so I was already doing internships my first year of university. And I was presented an opportunity to move here to New York and to join Morgan Stanley. That was really my crash course in finance.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:02:20): And you were 19 or 20?

JASON WENK (00:02:22): Nineteen as an intern, and officially joined at age 20.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:02:25): What drew you to financial services instead of technology? Was it simply the dot-com implosion, and there were no jobs to be had in technology?

JASON WENK (00:02:35): I was still working in technology. My role — the internship — was productivity software; it just happened to be for a big investment bank. And then I spent about two years building different types of technology within the Morgan Stanley ecosystem. By the time I joined, they were Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, so they had this big retail wealth business. They also had prop trading and a number of other divisions, too.

So I didn’t really get too involved in personal wealth until maybe the last six months I was there, when I was put on a project. We were doing a lot of work with Morningstar, which back then was still sending out CD-ROMs to branches around the country. And if you had a big branch, that’d be hard — who had the CD-ROM? So we were just building networked versions of essentially the Morningstar database.

But I remember around that time, I was doing some pre-built prompts inside of these research platforms. And the way my mind worked, which was more around math, physics, computer science — I looked at these prompts and I thought, these are terrible prompts. In other words, the prompt would be: let’s build a screen so that financial advisors can easily build a portfolio, and the screen will be something like, find funds that have been around for five years, with turnover under 100 percent, with the same manager for five years or longer, that’s in the top quartile of their peer group. And on the surface you go, well, that seems pretty reasonable and fair — but that is no prediction of the future result. That is a terrible predictor of future outcomes. But it was sort of built as though it was a good predictor.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:04:18): Well, you have the data — past performance is right there. We have to do something with it.

I give Morningstar credit — they had an internal survey that more or less said, hey, don’t worry about the stars. The data shows if you just buy the least expensive fund, that’s the one most likely to give you the highest level of performance. And to their credit, they published that. I wanna say that was 2011, 2012. Really fascinating.

So you never really rotated through the departments where you’re smiling and dialing? Did you ever work as a broker?

JASON WENK (00:04:51): So I got licensed. I took the Series 7, Series 8, Series 24, Series 3 — all the classic licenses.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:04:58): The 24 — you wanted to be a supervisor?

JASON WENK (00:04:59): Yeah, and I’m not sure why. I was also a registered options principal — why I did that, I have no idea. Managed futures — again, not sure why I did that. But yeah, I did all of the research to understand the space, and I did go through the broker training program, sort of 2021 —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:05:26): 2021?

JASON WENK (00:05:27): Excuse me — 2001. Yeah, a little bit of a mistake there. And part of it was ’cause I wanted to move back to the Midwest. I think I had this romantic notion of going back home and helping people that I knew. The reality is nobody I knew had any money, so that wasn’t really going to work anyway. And really, before I even got started, I made the decision to leave and go start another business — kind of in the space, but adjacent. I didn’t do direct work with clients.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:05:52): So let’s talk about that. What was the first thing that you noticed in financial advice that led you to say, hey, this is broken, and I think I could use technology to build something better?

JASON WENK (00:06:04): Two things in particular. One was, around that time there was a transition from commission-based sales — brokers, if you will — to more fee-oriented financial planners. And for me, that really resonated. So this notion of, hey, can you give people more comprehensive planning advice —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:06:27): And be a fiduciary?

JASON WENK (00:06:28): Yeah. And also, I looked realistically at the way asset management worked, and I very much agreed with the Morningstar study that they published some 10 years later. A lot of this goes all the way back to Jack Bogle’s work. But just looking at a couple of years’ worth of research around asset management, I didn’t see a discernible benefit to stock picking or market timing. High cost, high turnover, high taxes — these things all eroded wealth. So part of me thought, well, is there a way that you can just get more people access to empirical, evidence-based investing? Maybe that also helps people do better.

The other part was accessibility. Again, I grew up in a farming town. There were no brokers, there were no bank advisors, there were no Edward Jones offices — there was really no access to advice. And I could see the direction the internet was taking us, really flattening the world. Everybody should be able to find advice and help through the internet.

So really, the first business, from an accessibility perspective — it was gonna be internet-based, it was a subscription service, and it was designed for people with 401(k)s. Because when I looked at the people I knew, that was about the closest thing they had to Wall Street, to a brokerage account — their defined contribution plan. So the idea was, let’s make it easy for people that have a 401(k) plan to get the absolute best results they can from their 401(k). And I spent almost three years building that business.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:07): This is Retirement Wealth Advisors?

JASON WENK (00:08:08): No, this is the one that doesn’t exist on my LinkedIn profile.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:12): This is before that.

JASON WENK (00:08:14): Yeah. So I spent from 2021 until 2024 —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:24): 2001 to 2004.

JASON WENK (00:08:25): 2001, yeah. Gosh, it shows how old I am. My mix-up — it only gets worse. The decades, the dates —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:30): The names. It just trends in one direction.

JASON WENK (00:08:32): Yeah. So 2001 till 2004. And honestly, when I look back at it, it was maybe a little bit too early. This was pre-robo-advisor, right? Pre-blogging — pre a lot of things that just got more people connected.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:50): Blogging was just starting around then. We went from GeoCities to things like TypePad.

JASON WENK (00:08:55): Yeah. You were a real trailblazer in that regard.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:58): It was compulsion — I had no choice. I had to.

JASON WENK (00:09:02): So look, pay-per-click advertising was just coming out. So you had things like Overture, which is kind of pre-Google, but you could buy the keyword for a phrase like “how to manage my 401(k)” for a penny, and you could be the top-ranked search. People would then land on my website, which was called Smarter Than Wall Street back then. And it would allow you to say, I work at General Motors, answer a few questions, and it would say, here’s how to allocate your 401(k). They’d get an email once a month if there was anything they should do differently. Of course, the emails never said that they should ever do anything differently.

And after about a year, I had built a pretty good-sized subscription business, but I started to have some churn, because people were like, why am I paying you every month to just send an email that says the same thing as the email the month before? And eventually I started asking people, well, what would be more valuable — sort of a churn survey, if you will. And people would say, look, if you would just do this for me, I’d pay you a lot more than 20 bucks a month. And that was really the genesis of Retirement Wealth. That’s even why it was called Retirement Wealth — because a lot of these 401(k) folks were retirement-focused.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:10:10): And that scaled up pretty rapidly. Was that the $4 billion advisory shop? No? So where did that go?

JASON WENK (00:10:18): So I ended up going to about 1.1 or 1.2 billion in assets. But yeah, it grew really fast. I started it in November — December of 2004 was when I got my registration — and ran that for about six years, roughly.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:10:34): And a billion in AUM is not insubstantial. That puts you into a category of —

JASON WENK (00:10:39): Especially back then.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:10:40): Yeah. Inflation-adjusted, we’re probably talking about 3 billion today. But that’s real revenue, that’s real clients. What made you say, all right, I’ve kind of done this — now let’s look at FormulaFolios?

JASON WENK (00:10:55): So I was always driven probably more by impact than by the size of assets or revenue. That company was bootstrapped. I built every single thing myself, wrote all of the code. Although the name was Retirement Wealth, it was a fairly tech-forward platform. I built my own proposal systems to really analyze the portfolio and then propose a new solution, digitized a lot of onboarding to really automate getting new clients on, and it was mostly virtual. So it was also before its time in the sense that it was built mostly from blogging, back in like the 2006-to-2010 era. It was a lot of things — it was doing well before its time.

And what ended up happening — really the catalyst to moving into the next business — was I was invited to speak at TD Ameritrade’s national conference. They were my custodian at the time. I loved the people there. They saw the unusual growth, and also that I was still in my twenties, and they thought, hey, we’d love to have you come speak and share a bit of how you’re doing what you’re doing. So I went to San Diego and I gave a session where I just said, hey, here’s how I’m getting new clients. I’m writing these blog posts — here’s the framework, how I do it. Here’s how I take these people from a stranger from the internet into a defined financial planning process, and then a defined portfolio. And it was so structured that I could then train other advisors. So I hired a few other advisors, and they came in and they could then run the process.

And at that time, a bunch of other advisors — I’d say hundreds of other advisors — started to reach out inbound: hey, how can I get access to your “system,” they would kind of call it. And the reality was, I didn’t want to hire 50 financial planners. I’ve always been a bit reclusive.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:12:56): You don’t wanna manage 50 people. But selling them the software — that’s a fair relationship.

JASON WENK (00:13:01): That seemed a lot better, right? So that’s where the idea was spawned — hey, maybe it makes more sense to license the software, make it easier for people to run their own business, but leveraging a lot of our technology.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:13:15): Was that FormulaFolios?

JASON WENK (00:13:15): Correct. Yeah.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:13:17): All right. And how big did that scale up to?

JASON WENK (00:13:19): It went zero to 4 billion in five years. And today it’s, I think, 14 billion or something like that.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:13:25): So I know that you were a programmer in college. You describe yourself as a developer and a math geek — you very much have a little bit of a hacker mentality. How did that technical — I don’t want to use the word self-identity, but just your self-perception — how did that affect your view of, here are the services that make sense for investors, for advisors, for this whole ecosystem that had been, especially in the two thousands, mostly ignored by Wall Street? It took 25 years for the fiduciary side to pass the commission-based brokerage side. So how did the technology background affect your perception of that market?

JASON WENK (00:14:10): Sure. Look, I think I’ve always been a little bit idyllic — you name your company Altruist, you probably have some generally idealistic tendencies. I think people who know me well would say I’m a bit of a macro thinker, but I don’t like working in the day-to-day weeds of most things. So for me, I’ve always thought in decades, and it wasn’t hard to look at the market in the early two thousands and say, well, this is the future. Even though, to your point, the RIA fiduciary channel back in 2004, when I started my first firm — it was maybe six to 800 billion in assets. Today it’s probably 10 trillion. So today it seems very obvious, but back then it was a relatively small part of the market. It was not obvious, maybe, to everybody.

But I looked at the demographics of the country, and there will be such a huge number of people who are going to need good-quality advice and planning. And if you think in first principles, which is a very common technology metaphor, and you have no bias about the way things had been done historically — to say, well, what is the right way to do things? — that just seemed like the obvious and only and objective future for this industry. And I wanted to be on the forefront of that.

So now, some 20-plus years later, the market is very obvious. A lot of people want to build in this space, and it’s the place that seems to be growing the fastest. That was crystal clear to me 20 years ago. And I think a lot of that comes from, again, that more first-principled, sort of Silicon Valley way of seeing the world.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:15:55): Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, discussing how he built the firm to compete with the big guys. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My guest this week is Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of the new custodian Altruist.

So Altruist describes itself as a modern custodian — emphasis on modern — for independent financial advisors. What does that mean in the real world? This has always been such a boring, plumbing type of industry. What was broken that required your attention?

JASON WENK (00:16:45): Well, I guess the opposite of modern is not modern, and the whole rest of the industry is pretty old. If you think about most of the infrastructure that’s used by financial professionals, the majority of it is 50 to 70 years old.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:17:01): That’s amazing.

JASON WENK (00:17:02): And it operates on mainframes, not cloud-native platforms. So I think the starting point is — and with no disrespect, these were innovative companies 50 years ago. They’re just not that innovative today.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:17:16): You’re saying the electric typewriter isn’t cutting-edge anymore?

JASON WENK (00:17:19): I mean, they’re still fun to use — the click and the clack.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:17:21): They make a nice noise.

JASON WENK (00:17:22): Right? It feels very — it reminds me of my grandparents’ house in the nineties or something. So look, getting to the problem statements: having been in this space a long time, for the longest time I would look at the industry and go, that just doesn’t make any sense. Why do we do it this way?

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:17:42): Again, we’ve always done it that way.

JASON WENK (00:17:43): Yeah, exactly. It doesn’t mean it’s the right way. And so some examples of that. I think it’s a bit crazy — if you’re a financial advisor or wealth manager… and I think if someone’s listening to this and they’re not one of those people, they’ll think, this is literally crazy. But this is the way it works. So first you have to have a custodian, right? This is a place where you’ll open accounts for your clients. They’ll safeguard your client assets, do all your record keeping, process trades —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:18:06): A trusted third party who is not managing the money. And that creates a built-in checks and balance.

JASON WENK (00:18:13): Somewhat — or it could be a built-in limitation, keeping that advisor from doing high-quality work. Which is what I sort of discovered as I peeled back the layers of the onion.

So these custodians — one would think a very simple thing they should be able to do is, let’s say you have three accounts with your financial planner. You’ve got an IRA, maybe a Roth IRA, a joint account with your partner, and you wanna know: how am I doing over the past 12 months? You’d think you could just log on to Schwab or Fidelity or Pershing or wherever and just click a button, and it would tell you that. But the reality is that you cannot get that information from your custodian. The custodian will only be able to tell you what you have today. It will give you access to your statements. The statements are not bundled at the household level. And what the custodian will tell you is that if you want that type of information, you need to buy a third-party portfolio accounting software: we’ll send them a daily file of all of your positions and transactions, that third party will reconcile all that data, and it will then allow you to run reports for your clients. And you’re gonna have to pay, depending on the size of your firm, anywhere from tens of thousands to millions of dollars for this third-party software. And this just fundamentally makes no sense at all. The custodian has all of the data. It should easily be able to reconcile that and run reports for advisors. But they can’t, and they won’t.

And you could go down this long list of things that they should be able to do, just as logic would tell you. For example, if you wanna bill a fee to your client — the client signs a fee agreement that says, I’m willing to pay my advisor 1 percent, hypothetically, and I’m willing to pay them that every quarter, calculated on the average daily balance, and bill me in arrears. Something simple. The custodian will say, that’s cool — what you need to do is, we’ll send your data to a third party, they can reconcile the data, you can then run a billing schema, it’ll create a CSV file, you can then upload that to our system, and we’ll then debit those fees from the accounts. But this whole process can take days. And by the time you go to debit those fees, sometimes a client will have had a distribution in their account, or a trade or something, and the fees get busted. It creates an account that gets overdrawn.

And fundamentally, again, there’s hundreds of these things, and you go, this makes no sense. Why is this the way things operate? This is largely the genesis of why you would build a brand-new custodian from scratch. And if you were going to build it in a modern way, you would probably make sure all of these things are just built in automatically.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:20:39): So that raises a really fascinating observation. Altruist first came to market 2020 — was it ’21?

JASON WENK (00:20:48): We wrote the first lines of code in January of 2019. I think we went into beta in early 2020, and then launched the product right in the heart of the pandemic, in 2020, 2021.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:20:58): So I remember when the firm first launched, and I remember hearing about it, and the initial reaction was — I don’t wanna say crickets, but kind of low-key: yeah, someone’s gonna disrupt these guys? We’ve got $10 trillion, we know what we’re doing custody-wise. And what started out as sort of a shrug — it didn’t take very long before there was a little bit of a freak-out. Like, wait a second, what’s going on here? They’re actually winning clients. How is this a thing? From your perch within building the company, how did you see the rest of the custodian market react to Altruist launching and just rolling out one new capability after another?

JASON WENK (00:21:48): So — and I wish I could remember where to properly attribute this — there’s a great saying: first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then you win. So it’s not surprising, when somebody makes a big, bold declaration that they’re going to change an industry and make it better, if you are effectively a duopoly or oligopoly, as our industry was. Almost all the assets were held by, at the time, three custodians. Back then it was Schwab, Fidelity, and TD Ameritrade. TD Ameritrade, shortly after we launched, was acquired by Schwab, really making the power dynamic two companies that have 80-plus percent market share. So, respectfully, I think there’s going to be a natural rent-seeking sort of mentality from those people who are the dominant players. Why would they ever want there to be any change? Why would they want to change their cost structure? Why would they want to modernize their systems? Things were great for those companies. So you’re not surprised that some folks may have been dismissive.

But advisors never were. When we first started putting prototypes out into the public and sharing our vision, we had thousands of advisors that signed up for our waitlist, hundreds that decided to become design partners — very early design partners — to help us build the platform. And we have this very loyal base of users that are very loud about how happy they are with the product. And we’ve done this by co-creating it with the advisors. It’s not lost on me that there are literally thousands of features that you have to build to support the wealth management industry. We can’t possibly know all thousand internally, so you need to have some awesome partners that can help shine a light on what the most important things are. So yeah, in the end, I think we have more than caught their attention. I think now there’s a fairly deep-rooted fear, actually, from a lot of the bigger boys.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:23:51): Yeah. So you have the three big incumbents — it’s a little bit of an oligopoly of Schwab, which is now Schwab-TD combined, Fidelity, and Pershing–Bank of New York. Everybody kinda looked at them and said, there’s no way we’re going up against those behemoths. You are one of the first companies to say, we’re gonna take on the custodians, because their legacy platforms just can’t do the things that we can do at scale. How do you think about the challenges of going up against — what is Fidelity, 18 trillion? And Schwab is 12 trillion? These are monsters. Bank of New York Pershing is the oldest bank — that’s Hamilton’s bank, literally. These are not, oh, I think I could disrupt Nokia with a better product. These are just the most entrenched, well-thought-of partners for advisors. What gave you the confidence to say, we could beat them at their own game?

JASON WENK (00:24:58): I think a big part of the confidence came from that early advisor reaction. But the truth is that these companies don’t have high NPS — these aren’t companies loved by their customers.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:25:14): NPS — net promoter score. We do one of those surveys every year, and I know that’s become super popular everywhere the past 20 years.

JASON WENK (00:25:22): You don’t have to look very far and wide, or have too many conversations, to hear wealth managers gripe about their custodians. Again, I was running one of the largest — I think when I stepped down from FormulaFolios, at the time it was the fastest-growing RIA in the history of the entire industry. We were growing at 16,000 percent on a three-year growth rate. So it was a true rocket ship in the sense of the RIA space. And I felt tremendous pain. My biggest pain point was my custodian — onboarding new clients. They were making you download forms from a form library, populate the forms by hand, send them out via DocuSign at best, sometimes requiring wet signatures or medallion stamp signature guarantees. It was literally like going backwards in time 20 years. Meanwhile, you had companies like Robinhood, where you could download an app on your phone at 18 years old, have your account open in 30 seconds, fund it with a hundred dollars, and buy fractional shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock commission-free.

It was so obvious to me that the old way custodians had been operating — they were still charging commissions, using paper — this was definitely not the right way to do things. And if you started looking at the impact to clients: what is the impact of forcing people to use whole shares? Why would the big custodians force you to use whole shares versus fractional shares? Fractional share trading had been around for over 20 years.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:26:47): It’s just math. It’s not that difficult to execute.

JASON WENK (00:26:49): Correct. This isn’t even hard — it’s arithmetic, geometry, algebra, right?

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:26:53): You’re not talking about exponential algos or anything like that.

JASON WENK (00:26:56): Precisely. But a lot of it is, you just start going, okay — and maybe this is a good tinfoil-hat theory here, but I’d say, what would the benefit to them be of not enabling fractional shares? Maybe that means more cash will be in client accounts — maybe they make half of their revenue from the cash spread, right? The net interest income on the cash that sits in client accounts. Maybe it also forces you — if you do want to use fractional shares, the only vehicle that trades in fractional shares, in other words where you can do notional, dollar-based buying, is mutual funds. And these mutual funds pay tremendous fees for distribution through these brokerage platforms. What if they are not allowing fractional shares because they really don’t want to disintermediate packaged products in general — to make things like direct securities more accessible to more people?

I just went down this rabbit hole, but the end result is, it costs investors a ton of money. You end up limiting the amount of tax benefits, you end up increasing the average client account size — so if you really want to have great efficacy in investment outcomes, you’d have to have tens of millions of dollars. And if you had fractional shares — as just one example — all of a sudden, a ton of that entrenched history goes away completely. Everybody can get access to the same type of investment strategies: individually managed accounts, lot-level tax trading so you can get the best possible after-tax outcomes. You can compress cash down to the lowest amount, so you’re reducing cash drag — this increases outcomes.

So I think in the end, if you put yourself on the right side of the client and you have time on your side, you will absolutely win. I think one of the best examples of that in our industry is Vanguard. What they did — they were laughed at for decades, a long time, and they didn’t even really reach massive scale until 25, 30 years into their journey. But again, if you just put yourself on the right side of the client — the end client — hey, we are going to do things that objectively and obviously produce better outcomes on an after-fee, after-tax, after-cash-drag basis; we’re going to provide delightful experiences with a true partnership with our advisors and clients — these things will work.

And again, I think you have to have a certain amount of craziness. One of our early investors — you might know Omani Carson, formerly known as Ron Carson.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:29:23): I was gonna say — Omani is his new name, his post-retirement name.

JASON WENK (00:29:26): And I love him dearly. But I remember, I met him very early in building Altruist, and we met for coffee in Venice, California, where the company was started. And Omani looks at me after I explained the company, and he’s like — pardon my French — “This is the craziest effing idea I’ve ever heard. I’m in. How do I give you money?” I think there’s a certain number of people who — when we’ve been doing this a long time, you eventually become numb to the status quo. And the status quo was totally shitty, right? It was not good for anybody.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:29:59): Except for the custodians themselves.

JASON WENK (00:30:00): Yeah, there was one party that really was happy with the status quo, right? And so I think as soon as we shed a little bit of light — now, there’s a ton of challenges you have to overcome, but again, there was no doubt in my mind this was gonna work when I started.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:30:11): You mentioned Robinhood and zero commission, which I wanna say was 2014 or 2015, and then Schwab rolled out commission-free trading in 2019. What did that shift in cost structure do to the relationship between investors and custodians, advisors and custodians? Did that change the way everybody looked at this? Or was this just, okay, I guess this is an even lower-margin business?

JASON WENK (00:30:42): So I think that’s a huge misconception. What’s interesting is that I wrote this piece in 2018, and we had one of our designers draw an infographic behind it. And it was the classic tip of the iceberg, where we showed what you see above the waterline and then what exists below the waterline.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:31:04): I just did one of those two weeks ago.

JASON WENK (00:31:06): It’s a pretty metaphor.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:31:08): It really is just so perfect — hey, here’s what you’re focusing on, but you gotta look at the things that matter even more.

JASON WENK (00:31:15): So we did this for custodians. And the thing people saw was the commission. So there was this belief — and advisors even didn’t know the facts. They would go to clients and say, hey, when you work with us and our independent third-party custodian, here’s how they get paid: they get paid $7 if you do a trade. It’s a pretty cheap, one-price —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:31:36): What about spreads? What about payment for order flow? I mean, the big money — the commission is just a break-even.

JASON WENK (00:31:42): A hundred percent, right. If you look at the big public companies that were in the space, maybe five to 10 percent of the revenue was from transactions, and commissions were maybe half of the transaction revenue.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:31:55): And that’s before we get to the float, which everybody loves.

JASON WENK (00:31:57): Correct. So there’s a ton of things that had, I’d say, historically been ignored or unknown. The biggest revelation when everybody went commission-free was that people started asking the question, well, how the heck do you make money? How does this business actually work if you’re giving away everything for free? Only then did people start to go, oh, wait a minute — that wasn’t even how you made money. That was literally just a complete smoke-and-mirrors way to fool me into believing you only made $7 a trade, when the reality was all of the real money was made by paying me 0.01 percent interest on my idle cash; making me trade whole shares, which makes me have more cash in my account than I really should; making me buy these different funds that all have a bunch of conflicts of interest through all of their various forms of 12b-1 and 15c-3 revenue-sharing agreements — just very esoteric stuff that very few people ever talk about. And to your point, on float and liquidity through PFOF — payment for order flow.

It really opened everyone’s eyes to the fact that the clearing and custody business, it turns out, wasn’t a high-scale, low-margin business at all. In fact, it was a very high-margin business, and that was just one kind of irrelevant piece that confused people into believing that was the full price of admission.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:33:20): I recall a couple of years ago — it was after Schwab went zero-commission, commission-free trading — I don’t remember if it was TD or Schwab, but one of the public companies, in a quarterly earnings report, 57 percent of their gross came from the float — came from what they got paid on the difference between what they were paying investors, 0.0-whatever, and the actual rate that they could generate internally. How does Altruist deal with that?

JASON WENK (00:34:00): So I think the key is doing whatever you’re doing transparently, and whenever you can, giving as much of the economics to the client. I’m a big believer in the flywheel, made popular by Good to Great, one of my favorite books. And our flywheel is: the first spoke is, invest in innovation that drives better outcomes for advisors. The second is, invest in innovation that drives better outcomes for end consumers — the end client. If we do those two things, it will drive the highest satisfaction amongst our user base. This will increase the amount of assets on our platform, which gives us the scale to invest more in innovation — which drives better outcomes for advisors, better outcomes for clients.

If you’re going to do that, you have to earn revenue, of course. But in our case, we built a very integrated wealth platform. So yes, we have custody and clearing revenue. We make money on net interest income — the float, if you will. We make some revenue on payment for order flow, but we built what’s called the Wheel order routing system. It’s 100 percent optimized to drive the best possible execution for every single client transaction. If we happen to get a better execution through Citadel or Jane Street, whomever, we might make a tiny amount — literally measured in fractions of basis points, mills. It’s the lowest amount of revenue we earn, but there is something there. We do earn money, again, on float, but we offer fractional shares, so we have the lowest cash holdings in the entire industry — people can hold virtually nothing. We also have some earnings from things like mutual funds, but we have the lowest amount of mutual funds in the entire industry, because we offer fractional shares — people can buy ETFs, they can buy individual securities. So we have very, very little in the way of rev share through fund companies. But there’s definitely money that is made at that clearing layer.

Where we’ve really innovated is that we also do all of the software layer for advisors, and we offer an asset management layer for advisors. So each component of the Altruist business is generally going to be 60 to 80 percent cheaper than if these things were bought individually. So you may recall, when I shared the story about how you go to a custodian and you say, why can’t you do my fee billing? That makes no sense — you have to buy a third-party software. We built all of these things natively, and most of them are either free or very low cost, because we have this benefit, if you will, of stacking the various forms of services that advisors and their clients need.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:36:26): On a modern platform.

JASON WENK (00:36:27): Correct. And we do it with, I’d say, fairly insane amounts of automation. So the knock I made on using PDFs — there’s no PDFs necessary at Altruist.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:36:40): You’re not exporting CSVs and then having to upload them to Claude to get a report once a quarter or a year.

JASON WENK (00:36:48): A hundred percent. You can open an entire family’s accounts, do all of their account transfers, link all their bank accounts, and do the whole thing in under two minutes. The accounts are being real-time validated, the transfers are being real-time validated — in 98-plus percent of these workflows, there’s no human being ever involved. So every time we build a new innovation or automation, we’re able to operate with a much higher amount of operating leverage than anyone else in the industry. This allows us to invest back into more innovation, which allows us to offer more services at lower price points.

So look, we earn revenue just like everyone else does. I think one interesting tidbit we don’t talk a lot about is the fact that, on the aggregate, Altruist earns more revenue than, I believe, any other RIA custodian on a per-dollar basis — meaning, per dollar on our platform, we earn more revenue than the big players. And it’s not because we charge more. In fact, we have the lowest fee schedule in the entire industry. But it’s because we do more for those advisors than just provide custody and clearing. We’re offering software and services, AI products, asset management services, automations around things like tax management and tax-loss harvesting. So because people use more surface area, we end up having more — and more diverse — revenue as a business, and we have much better operating leverage, because we have so much automation that we don’t have to hire a lot of people to actually offer this at scale. So these are a lot of the benefits of modern, right? If you build in this day and age, you’re not going to build the same way you would if you did it 50 years ago.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:38:17): You are earning more revenue as the custodian per dollar on the platform, yet at the same time the advisor is paying less cost per dollar on the platform — of course, because they’re not working with five or ten third-party add-ons. It’s just one turnkey solution, correct?

JASON WENK (00:38:36): Yeah, it’s material. And consumers, if they’re using the platform correctly, are getting better results as well. Because they don’t have things like cash drag, because they can be more fully invested, because they can reduce the need for third-party investment products — they can hold securities directly on the platform, reducing expense ratios — and because we have automation around tax management, they can drive down the tax consequences of investing materially. So again, it’s one of these things where it almost sounds too good to be true, right? But yes — advisors should be able to run more efficient, better businesses, we can have a great business, and consumers can win, too. That is very much a real possibility. There doesn’t have to be a loser. It’s a win ecosystem.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:39:20): Let’s talk about AI and automation and your platform, Hazel. I know my team loves it — everybody’s super positive about it. Is Hazel a standalone AI bet? Is it part of the long-term vision? Is it planning and custody and other services as one seamless workflow on a single platform? Tell us all about Hazel.

JASON WENK (00:39:48): So first, to answer your question: it’s very tightly integrated with Altruist, but it’s available totally separately, so really any wealth manager can use it. We have people using it all over the world, in many different industries. We have large CPA firms that are using Hazel, and obviously large financial advisory firms.

Part of the thinking here is that the Altruist business will eventually be a very large, scaled business with trillions of dollars in assets, but the total size of our industry is going to be tenfold that, right? So we don’t want to limit the power of AI to just whatever percentage of market share Altruist has — we want everybody to benefit from these innovations. And the things that are really cool with Hazel — again, it can be used by any financial advisor, or really a lot of different segments of financial services. It’s been a ton of fun to build. And a lot of what we’re doing is just taking the hardest, most laborious, non-glamorous but important work that used to be really hard to get if you didn’t have tens of millions of dollars, and we’re bringing the unit cost down to like three to five dollars. So you can do incredibly complex tax planning, and do it for, again, effectively a dollar to five dollars. This makes it accessible to everybody. And AI — people have their fears about what could go wrong, but we like to think this is a lot of the “what can go right.”

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:41:19): Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, discussing how he built the firm to compete with the big guys. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My guest this week is Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of the new custodian Altruist.

I’ve seen some crazy numbers as to what advisors manage. I don’t wanna talk about mutual funds — I wanna talk about straight-up RIAs, who are your prime clients as a custodian. Ten, 12, $20 trillion — just crazy numbers out there. What is the total addressable market there, and how much does the oligopoly — the big three — have of that total market?

JASON WENK (00:42:17): So the approximate number is 10 trillion today. It’s about 35,000 firms. Roughly half of these firms are SEC-registered investment advisors, meaning —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:42:27): More than a hundred million each.

JASON WENK (00:42:28): More than a hundred million. And then the other half are state-registered firms that are sub-100 million. Some of those are just new entrants — firms at their first registration that will probably mature into the SEC within a year or two. And others just operate small, independent businesses serving a loyal but small group of clients.

At the top of the market — I think Pershing oftentimes gets lumped into the big three. They don’t have much market share of the RIA segment. It’s a bit muddy, but the reason is they support all of the big broker-dealers, which usually have a companion corporate RIA, and that’s kind of how they get in here. But for true standalone RIAs, 85 percent of the assets are with just two companies: Schwab being the largest — they’re north of 50 percent market share — and then Fidelity being the second largest. So it’s your very classic disruption setup. If you were to just say, hey, what would be the recipe for disruption? You’d say: big, fast-growing market, dominated by old companies, using old infrastructure, with generally low NPS — low customer satisfaction. That is exactly the market that we are in today.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:43:39): Huh. Really, really fascinating. So given the fact that you got to build a clean-sheet custodian — you’re not built on this legacy hardware that can’t do all these things fast and easy — what’s the biggest take-up from advisors? Where are they still inefficient? Is it just paperwork and portfolio management? Is it tax? Is it compliance? Is it client service and disbursements? Where are the biggest advantages? Or is it just the whole thing?

JASON WENK (00:44:11): So we break this down into two elements. With Altruist, we have our core wealth business — this is the custody and the software related to custody. We started there. It’s a super big, hairy build. It just takes a long time — hundreds of thousands of engineering hours. There are no shortcuts. Very expensive, time-consuming.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:44:34): Was that a BHAG reference I heard?

JASON WENK (00:44:34): Oh, absolutely. This is as big and hairy as they get, right? And again, there are no shortcuts. But that infrastructure is so critical, because what it allows you to do, if it’s done the right way, is tackle all the other work. So I’ll start with the custody part. You can open accounts super fast and do all of the automation around onboarding clients. This is great, but you only onboard a client once — ideally. And so if you serve a client for 30 years, the custody part is really a pretty small part of the picture. It was a huge friction point, because it was oftentimes one of the first experiences that a client would have with their advisor. And if it was a bad experience — as it often was — it’s usually not fast, you don’t have a lot of clarity: hey, when is my transfer going to be done? Why did this thing get rejected? Why am I redoing this paperwork? So we solved a lot of the infrastructure.

Now, with our AI products — Hazel — we’re tackling the rest of the 30 years, right? So maybe there’s 5 percent or less of a client relationship that’s really connected to the custodian: you’re onboarding the client, you’re setting up rules around trading and rebalancing and tax management. But a lot of the work really is all of the one-to-one, hard-to-scale work. So you meet a new client — they’re a prospect at this point. You need to uncover a bunch of data that they have, you need to then analyze that, build a financial plan, create a proposal. Once they agree to it, then you do that onboarding, and now you have to serve that client for decades. And there are going to be all of these life events that happen, all of these emotions that these folks will live through with you. It could be massive changes in macro conditions; it could be changes to their family — whether it’s death, divorce, new children, etc. There are so many things that happen, and advisors have to be able to react — ideally, be proactive, but react to all these things — and make sure your money’s aligned at all times.

And this is where AI is incredibly powerful, where you can take a ton of that work that used to be heavily compromised… And compromise is interesting, because every advisor, whether they want to admit it or not, historically has been making compromises for their clients. And it goes one of two directions. One compromise is: I wanna save the world, I’ve got a hero complex, I’m gonna take every client under the sun. If I do that, the compromise is I can’t possibly give the highest level of quality, care, and service to every client — it’s just not possible; you can’t earn enough money and revenue from the lower end of your client base. The other compromise might be: I am not willing to compromise on the quality and service and attention, but as a result, I can only serve 50 families, and so my minimum is going to have to be $10 million or something like that. Where the compromise is, I can’t actually give my advice to as many people as I’d like to.

AI is this great equalizer. You think about all the infrastructure we built at Altruist, and you then layer on all of the agents that can do things like gather data for you, build financial plans, build tax plans, help you be incredibly responsive to client emails and questions — to build a level of intelligence across your client base that no human being could ever possibly attain. So it’s very easy to have an incredibly precise and highly personalized perspective on every unique client that you serve. So these are the things that we’re building. I think in the end, the clearing and custody business will end up becoming very agentic. These agents will be the ones who are probably logging on, if you will, and they’ll be performing functions that today humans have to log in to do. But it’s a pretty exciting time to build.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:48:22): Really interesting. I recall a couple of years ago — and I don’t wanna put words into anyone’s mouth, but it was the CEO of either BlackRock or Vanguard or somebody that size — was asked, what keeps you up at night? And the answer was cybersecurity and fraud. And I totally understand — no one wants to wake up one day and a billion dollars is missing. How do you integrate that into Altruist? How do you think about the human element — deepfakes and synthetic identity and voice fraud and cloning and all that stuff? What can the modern custodial platforms do that, hey, some of the big guys don’t have the integration with technology to do, to engage in this arms race against the bad guys?

JASON WENK (00:49:18): I mean, I think the biggest reason they’d have that paranoia is that they’re working on a 50-year-old tech stack. And we see this with the latest Anthropic models — you connect those models, they sit on top of some legacy infrastructure, and they’ll find hundreds of critical vulnerabilities that no human being could have ever identified, because the code base is essentially one giant monolithic code base. It is just this huge albatross that these companies have been dealing with for decades. And replatforming is really hard. If you’re already big, you’re at scale, and you’ve got tens of trillions of dollars, it is nearly impossible to replatform and go from physical, mainframe-based technology into a cloud-based infrastructure using smaller, more manageable microservices. So yeah, it’s a huge risk. If I was running a giant old bank or brokerage, I would probably have the same primary paranoia.

If you’re building today, the best defense is oftentimes a strong offense. So why not just build, again in first principles, a bunch of protocols to make it much harder for bad actors to even get in the door? And this is overstating the obvious, but just having modern multi-factor authentication and requirements for security keys — even eliminating some of the highest-risk channels; for example, phone calls are a lot easier to dupe, ironically, than a properly built multi-factor authentication program. So I think there’s a lot that will change. We don’t rest on the fact that, oh, we’re a tech company, therefore we’re impenetrable. Of course we have bad actors trying to come after our clients all the time. And I think that if you’re not building — especially AI that can help identify other AI and other bad actors — you’re in a bit of a quandary. And it’s really hard to do that if your core platform, again, has tens of millions of lines of code written in languages that honestly nobody uses and hasn’t used for decades. That is a major problem with financial services.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:51:29): So you’ve raised a decent amount of venture capital money. I wanna say the 2025 Series F gave you a just-under-$2-billion valuation. I think it was the Series F — I don’t remember.

JASON WENK (00:51:42): Yeah, correct. Last year.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:51:42): Discuss the need for capital to build out. And we’re not talking about the hyperscalers that are spending ungodly amounts of hundreds of billions of dollars — this is just a nice little startup that’s taking on a couple of big, entrenched companies and working off a clean sheet. What has the capital spend been like on the technology side?

JASON WENK (00:52:08): So we’ve raised a little over 600 million in capital over the last seven years. I don’t think we’ll need any additional capital going forward — we still have a lot of cash on the balance sheet.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:52:20): You’re cash-flow positive now?

JASON WENK (00:52:23): Our broker-dealer’s been profitable for about three years.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:52:26): Profitable — I wasn’t even talking profitable. I was just asking if you’re at least holding your head above water.

JASON WENK (00:52:31): Yeah. Well, look, in our industry, every broker-dealer’s financial records are public, so you can go look up our balance sheet — it’s not hard to find. But we still use cash on the balance sheet for R&D investments, to keep building more tools. You can imagine, if we backed off from our aggressive building of products and features, it wouldn’t be a hard business to run standalone for decades.

But there’s a serious cost to starting a custodian. Beyond the cost of building all of the technology, there are also the regulatory requirements and the capital requirements. When you run a brokerage business, every time you add a new client, a new dollar to your platform, you have to have reserve capital in your broker-dealer. And so there’s no shortcut. This is something where I tell people every now and again — they’ll ask me, hey, what would it take for someone to compete? I’d say, well, it’ll take about five years and at least $250 million just to have a shot — just to have any shot in the dark of making it. And that assumes, of course, you do it right, and what you build is somehow substantially better than anything else in the market, and you can get enough clients to run it on. But just to give yourself a shot — it’s, again, non-trivial.

And just to pick up on it, ’cause you made a comment about these sort of hyperscalers building these foundation models — I’m not so sure that when we look back in 20 years — or maybe 30 years, 40 years, 50 years, some amount of time in the future — at what were the most impactful companies that made the biggest difference for society, I’m not so sure those are the ones that we’ll be talking about. Really, I think it’ll be businesses like Altruist that we’ll be talking about, and going, wow, they have managed to unlock trillions of dollars for consumers. And that is not something that any of us can be convinced is possible with foundation models yet, at this point. All they are are money-guzzling machines that have yet to figure out how to turn inference into profits. In other words, their costs are higher than what they’re reselling their products and services for. I’m as big a fan and believer and user of AI products as anybody, but when we really start measuring impact — what changes the world — that’s very possible, but there’s nothing proven about it.

What we’re doing is very proven. You can very objectively say, if we give every single client, I don’t know, 1 percent back in economic advantage, and you scale that across trillions of dollars for decades, you can start measuring your impact in hundreds of billions of dollars. That, to me, is more than a small startup. It’s incredibly ambitious, but it’s incredibly good for humanity. I hope more people do this type of stuff.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:55:10): That’s Eric Balchunas’ column, which became a book — the Vanguard Effect. I wanna say it was like 2016, 2018: Vanguard has saved $2 trillion in fees for clients. I mean, that’s an insane, insane number. And you guys are looking to push into the same space.

I want to be respectful of your time. Before I jump to my favorite questions, I just have to ask one other question. You’ve built multiple businesses in the wealth management and fintech space. What’s the repeatable lesson that carries over from one to another? Or is each one a completely different animal?

JASON WENK (00:55:51): I mean, these are all pretty connected businesses. If someone looks at the evolution arc of my career, it’s sort of like each time I find a problem —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:56:01): Go on to the next one.

JASON WENK (00:56:02): Yeah. You kinda go, okay, well, that was an interesting problem, but this is an even bigger problem, and this is an even bigger problem. I’m curious — now, I think there’s going to be a reasonably good need for a highly specialized LLM, specifically narrowly trained for our industry. I’m not sure the big LLMs will do it, so maybe we’ll do that at some point in the future. But the point is, there’s always something that has the potential to make a bigger impact.

And one thing I’ll say — for me, I don’t spend a ton of time trying to compare what I do to what other entrepreneurs do, so I can’t really say if there’s a lesson to be learned broadly. But with each venture that I’ve been involved with, I’ve started with a pretty simple North Star, which is: I want to help people. These are all mission-driven organizations, and I’m very passionate about that. This allows you to attract other people that are also mission-driven — these are your missionaries versus mercenaries. And we have some of the most incredible people. I could never even dream of assembling a team like what we have at Altruist, but it’s because they share that same core ethos of serving clients, driving better outcomes — again, sort of being on the right side of the customer, doing things that really matter.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:57:18): So given that, look out five to 10 years. Where is Altruist? What are you doing? How big is Altruist at that point?

JASON WENK (00:57:28): It’s hard to predict with precision just how big, but I suspect we’ll be very large. If we look at the trajectory of the business today — again, we don’t talk a lot about our numbers publicly, so people have to sort of take Jason’s word for it — but in our first five years of operating, from when we opened our first account, we had more assets on our platform than Robinhood, Betterment, Wealthfront, Public, Stash, M1, and Acorns combined. So when people wonder, is this working? It’s scaling very, very rapidly, and it’s growing at a really, really fast pace. People sometimes don’t understand the sort of network effect you get when you serve advisors and those advisors are growing fast. Firms like yours are growing super fast, the clients are adding deposits to their existing accounts, and the market tailwind is pretty material.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:58:19): Fifteen percent a year for the past 15 years.

JASON WENK (00:58:20): Yeah. And it’s better for advisor clients than it is for self-directed clients. So these are all things that create enormous tailwinds for businesses like ours. So I think 10 years out, we’ll be multiple trillions in assets, serving many millions of end clients. And likely, where advisors have kind of capped out at a hundred or 125 or 150 clients, those laws of physics will sort of be removed. And I think that’s a net great thing.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:58:44): All right, I wanna be respectful of your time, and I’m gonna jump to our speed round — we’re gonna do these really quickly. Starting with: who are your mentors who helped shape your career?

JASON WENK (00:58:55): So, Nick was our first investor at Altruist. He was also a big supporter of me at my last company. He’s a partner at Venrock, and he’s just awesome.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:59:04): What are your favorite books? What are you reading currently?

JASON WENK (00:59:07): Right now I’m reading Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark. It’s a book from 2016, 2017. He’s a professor at MIT and one of the real forward, early thought leaders in AI. There are three phases of AI, and I’d say we’re in Life 2.0 right now — so, human-powered. Go read the book and you’ll find out what comes with 3.0. It’s a good one.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:59:33): That’s interesting. And you mentioned Good to Great. Anything else you wanna mention?

JASON WENK (00:59:37): Yeah — these are a little bit cornier, but some of the most important books for me… I’m a total math nerd, so I can live in a Max Tegmark book forever. But I had to learn a lot of soft skills to be a better entrepreneur, and I learned a lot of those from reading Seth Godin’s books. One of my favorites.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:59:51): Seth is great — amazing books, great blog as well. Let’s talk about what you’re listening to, streaming, or watching. What’s keeping you entertained on these cross-country flights?

JASON WENK (01:00:02): So I don’t watch much TV, although I did watch your Knicks. Congratulations.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:00:07): Talk about perfect timing and a fairly easy path — it was the perfect storm.

JASON WENK (01:00:14): They avoided my Pistons — I’m a Detroit Pistons fan. But yeah, I don’t watch a lot of TV. I do listen to a lot of podcasts. I listen to yours. I’m a big fan of Harry Stebbings, so 20VC is a good one I listen to quite a bit. And then I listen to Lenny’s Podcast — if you’re a tech person; Lenny is a product person who goes deep into how different tech companies are being built, especially product-led companies. So those are some things I listen to a lot.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:00:42): Huh, really interesting. Final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in — fill in the blank — entrepreneurship, fintech, or even financial services?

JASON WENK (01:00:55): I think in any career, I would become the most AI-forward person in your field that you could possibly be. It does not matter if you’re working in sales, if you’re working in tech, if you’re working in financial services. If you can become the person who, when you walk into the room, is the absolute master of Claude for your job function, I think that’s one of the most important things for any person. I think young people have an actual advantage there, and it’s one they should definitely be leveraging.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:01:25): You’re not gonna be replaced by AI — you’re gonna be replaced by someone who uses AI better than you do.

JASON WENK (01:01:30): It’s getting cliché, but it’s very true.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:01:33): And our final question: what do you know about the world of technology, entrepreneurship, or financial technology today that would’ve been helpful back in the two thousands when you were first ramping up?

JASON WENK (01:01:47): I mean, I don’t know that there’s necessarily some innovation that I wish I knew. I just wish I would’ve spent more time getting proximate to really high-caliber people. Now that I’m older and I’ve done a few things, I’ve gotten the chance to meet some just outstanding people. Man, if you can get close to those people early in your career, it’s just going to be such a massive accelerant, because your way of thinking is going to be so much better and sharper and inspired. That’s what I’d do.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:02:16): Thank you, Jason, for being so generous with your time. We have been speaking with Jason Wenk. He is founder and CEO of fast-rising custodian Altruist. If you enjoyed this conversation, well, check out any of the previous 648 we’ve done over the past 12 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube — wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

I would be remiss if I didn’t thank the crack team that helps put these conversations together each week: Alexis Noriega is my video producer; Anna Luke is my podcast producer; Sean Russo is my head of research. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

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Buyers Trading In Vehicles With Negative Equity Face Record Monthly Payments: Edmunds

Zero Hedge -

Buyers Trading In Vehicles With Negative Equity Face Record Monthly Payments: Edmunds

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

The number of automobile owners trading in vehicles with negative equity continues to rise, with 29.6 percent of trade-ins in the second quarter showing more money owed on existing auto loans than the vehicles were worth, according to automotive insights platform Edmunds’s July 16 vehicle transaction report.

Negative equity also pushed average monthly payments on “underwater” trade-ins to $944 in the quarter, the highest figure on record, the report said.

That’s $167 more per month than trade-ins without negative equity considerations, and those higher loans are expected to account for an additional $16,270 in interest paid over the loan term—another record high that’s nearly $6,500 more than the average new-vehicle loan issued during the quarter.

“Consumers are incurring more debt than ever when trading in vehicles that are underwater,” said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds.

“Buyers who financed at 2022’s peak prices are starting to come back to trade in, and they’re bringing thousands of dollars in old debt with them. With interest rates still elevated, this is creating a costly snowball effect for consumers.”

It’s the highest number of underwater trade-ins recorded in the second quarter since 2020, Edmunds researchers noted. Trade-ins with negative equity eased slightly from the first quarter, when they tallied 30.9 percent, but they were up 3 percent from the second quarter of 2025.

The average amount of negative equity—$6,884—was a record high for the second quarter of any year, though it pulled back from the $7,183 notched in the first quarter, Edmunds researchers noted.

As buyers roll over negative equity into new auto loans, the principal amount owed on their new vehicles swells, Caldwell added. Buyers often rely on longer-term loans to lower their monthly payments, but that coping mechanism only results in a larger total interest paid over the life of the loan.

Paying down negative equity also lengthens the time it takes for automobile owners to reach positive equity in their vehicles, or the financial position where their car is worth more than the principal amount owed, the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) consumer advice portal noted.

It’s important for consumers to know their equity position in a vehicle before trading it in, the FTC added. Equally important, the FTC said, is to closely examine new automobile contracts for the amount of negative equity that may be rolled into new loans before signing documents at dealerships.

Negative equity positions have been on the rise since 2022, Edmunds said, when high used-vehicle prices caused by a global shortage of computer chips buffered consumers from rolling over debt from one vehicle to the next.

However, as vehicle prices normalized, more vehicle owners found themselves underwater on their loans as they attempted to upgrade their cars through new-vehicle purchases.

Vehicles with model years 2020 or newer showing the most negative equity include Toyota Tundra (-$8,929), GMC Sierra 1500 (-$8,566), Chevrolet Silverado 1500 (-$8,516), and Ram 1500 (-$,8347). However, Edmunds also lists a handful of sedans and sport utility vehicles with negative equity of $5,000 or more, including the Kia Sportage, Honda Accord, Toyota RAV4, Jeep Grand Cherokee, Nissan Rogue, and many others.

Often, negative equity is more about onerous financing structures than vehicle depreciation, said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.

“Some of the biggest dollar losses we’re seeing are on trucks and sedans that traditionally hold their value better than most,” Drury said.

“When historically safe residual value bets are showing up underwater, it’s clear this is a financing problem, not always a vehicle choice problem. These examples are a harsh reminder that a great vehicle choice can still be completely undermined by a punishing loan structure.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 11:40

US Gas Prices Cross Politically Sensitive $4 Level Closely Watched By Trump

Zero Hedge -

US Gas Prices Cross Politically Sensitive $4 Level Closely Watched By Trump

The U.S. national average for a gallon of regular 87-octane gasoline has climbed back above the politically sensitive $4 threshold as U.S. military forces and Tehran enter a ninth day of tit-for-tat strikes. This level is significant because it is where fuel costs begin to alter spending and driving behavior among working-poor households, while also weighing more broadly on consumer sentiment, making it a key pressure point closely watched by the Trump administration ahead of the midterm election cycle.

Regular unleaded gasoline climbed above $4 a gallon on Monday, according to new data from the American Automobile Association, ending roughly one month below the politically sensitive threshold after the interim peace deal that temporarily eased Gulf area tensions.

With the U.S.-Iran conflict now caught in an escalation spiral and domestic retail fuel prices rising sharply, pressure on the Trump administration to pursue a diplomatic off-ramp is likely to intensify.

Brent crude futures jumped above $90 a barrel earlier - the highest since early June - but faded in European trading. There were reports earlier that Iran targeted tankers in the Hormuz chokepoint and a Kuwaiti oil facility was attacked.

Let's not forget: last week, the writing was on the wall.

Readers may recall that we detailed extensively how consumer behavior shifted when gas prices were above $4:

We suggest readers revisit Daan Struyven, Goldman's leading commodity expert, on why gas prices are likely to remain elevated (read the note here).

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 11:20

400+ Ukrainian Drones Launched On Moscow In One Of Biggest Attack Waves To Date

Zero Hedge -

400+ Ukrainian Drones Launched On Moscow In One Of Biggest Attack Waves To Date

The Russian capital has been hit with a massive drone wave from Ukraine, which injured at least ten people - including three Chinese citizens - local authorities say.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has stated that more than 400 UAVs were launched toward Moscow and its suburbs overnight in one of the largest single raids since the war's start.

Reuters: Smoke billows after Ukrainian drone attacks in Podolsk, Moscow Region.

He described that most of the inbound drones were intercepted far from the capital, and that another 85 were downed as they got closer, but emerging images suggest there were some big strikes that landed. 

Russia's RT provided the following details, noting that the biggest impact was felt in the Moscow suburbs:

Two women were injured in Podolsk, while an 11-year-old girl in the Odintsovo district was diagnosed with an acute stress reaction but did not require hospitalization.

The main consequences of the raid were recorded in Podolsk, Domodedovo, and the Odintsovo urban district, Vorobyov said. Falling drones damaged several private homes and civilian infrastructure facilities and sparked multiple fires, he added.

In Odintsovo, a car and a private home were damaged, although no injuries were reported. In Podolsk, fires broke out and several civilian infrastructure sites were damaged, along with a private home in the village of Maloye Tolbino. 

Regions bordering Ukraine also came under heavy overnight attack from Ukraine, including Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk. These oblasts have frequently been targeted throughout the years-long war. Nationwide, at least four people were killed and dozens more injured in the large-scale drone assault.

Ukraine's President Zelensky has long touted the effectiveness of the drone war on Russian oil depots and energy facilities, but by all appearances this fresh drone attack targeted civilian areas as well as general manufacturing centers. According to more from Russian media:

The same wave of strikes hit two logistics centers operated by the Russian online retailer Wildberries in Kotovsk, Tambov Region, and Elektrostal, near Moscow. The attacks killed eight people and injured dozens more, according to regional officials.

Wildberries, often called the Russian version of Amazon, is one of the country’s most popular online retailers. Kiev confirmed that it had deliberately targeted the warehouses, claiming they stored components used in drone and navigation equipment.

Crimea was also once again heavily targeted, with the Russian Defense Ministry saying it intercepted many drones over the peninsula between Sunday night and Monday.

Reuters: damage recorded in Podolsk & other areas of Moscow region...

It seems this was Zelensky's 'answer' to the massive Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kiev of the last days.

While the Kremlin over the weekend boasted of new ground advances along the front lines, the war has been focused in the air of late. As for the Ukrainian capital, emergency crews have been scrambling on an almost nightly basis.

Concerning a weekend attack, "The Kyiv government said firefighters were responding to blazes in five different districts after the attack, one of the biggest in recent weeks, hit residential buildings, office and industrial sites, a dormitory and vehicles," The Independent described.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 11:00

Houthis Announce Blockade On Saudi Shipping, Threaten Drone & Missile Attacks On Kingdom

Zero Hedge -

Houthis Announce Blockade On Saudi Shipping, Threaten Drone & Missile Attacks On Kingdom

Yemen's Houthi rebels have announced they are imposing a new maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in response for a recent attack on Sanaa Airport, and after years of the kingdom leading a blockade of Houthi-controlled Yemeni ports.

A military statement by Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said the maritime ban on all Saudi shipping will be effective immediately in what he declared as an "equation of 'an eye for an eye.'"

via Middle East Eye

However, details of what this 'embargo' will look like, in terms of where or what chokepoints the Houthis might seek to blockade were not given.

Last week the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen attacked the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport, threatening a fragile truce that has been in place since 2022. Saudi jets had prevented an Iranian passenger plane from landing there, after the US-Saudi recognized Yemeni government warned against any Iranian planes entering the divided country's airspace.

Within days of that incident, the Houthis reportedly sent missiles on Saudi Arabia - which was a first after years of relative peace. In addition to unveiling the anti-Saudi embargo, the Houthis spokesman warned that if the Saudi siege on Yemen is not lifted, then Houthi armed forces will move towards a full-scale war.

Saree declared, "if Saudi Arabia turns to all-out aggression against Yemen, all of Saudi Arabia's energy facilities and its vital facilities will be targets for missiles and drones."

He described that the blockade of Sanaa airport "is unacceptable and cannot be tolerated" - following the Iran airline incident. Saree vowed to retaliate "to the blockade with a blockade and to respond to all escalation with escalation."

July 13: Yemen's internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government says its forces targeted Sanaa Airport, under Houthi control, to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing there...

"The Yemeni Armed Forces affirm their complete readiness for all options and any foolish act committed by the reckless Saudi enemy," the statement continued.

"We call upon the people of our great nation to continue the general mobilization and general call to arms, and to be fully prepared for all scenarios and developments, and to support the fronts with fighters."

The "internationally recognized" Yemeni government has long been propped up by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US, after a lengthy half-decade long UAE/Saudi/US coalition air war failed to dislodge Houthi power. The pro-Saudi government operates out of Aden in southern Yemen, after the country's president fled there a decade ago.

Earlier this month there had been an initial attempted Saudi warplane intercept of an Iranian civilian airliner, which was reportedly carrying Yemenis who had been stranded in Iran back to their home country.

The Houthis at the time of the prior incident said it was "breaking the Saudi-American siege on our people and expelling the occupiers."

As we featured previously, since 2015 Saudi Arabia has imposed a blockade on Yemen's land, sea, and air ports, severely restricting vital commercial and humanitarian imports, including fuel and food.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 10:25

Texas PUC Approves "Ride-Through" Rules For Data Centers

Zero Hedge -

Texas PUC Approves "Ride-Through" Rules For Data Centers

By Diana DiGangi of UtilityDive,

The Texas Public Utility Commission on Thursday unanimously approved rules that will require large computational loads, like data centers and crypto-mining facilities, within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas footprint to stay stable and connected to the grid through disruptions.

Modern computational loads, Kenteel Engineering said in a June blog, are “engineered to protect extremely sensitive and expensive equipment,” and during a voltage dip are programmed to disconnect or enter momentary cessation.

However, this presents a reliability problem, Kenteel Engineering said, as when “several hundred — or several thousand — megawatts of computational load all detect the same sag and drop simultaneously, the grid experiences a sudden, large loss of demand.”

“As LCLs increase on the ERCOT System, similar events would be expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, leading to frequency instability and other reliability problems absent frequency and voltage ride-through requirements,” the Texas PUC rules state. 

The rules don’t immediately penalize facilities that fail to ride through a qualifying event, Kenteel Engineering noted, but instead put them “on the clock” to investigate and report the root cause within 90 days of ERCOT’s request, “develop a corrective plan within 90 days of completing that investigation, and implement the approved plan within 180 days unless ERCOT grants more time.”

“Overriding all of that, if ERCOT judges that continued operation poses an imminent risk to local or system reliability, it can order the [large electric load] — and keep it disconnected — until the Customer demonstrates compliance to ERCOT’s satisfaction,” Kenteel Engineering said.

In comments, the Data Center Coalition argued that the PUC lacks the statutory authority to “impose the binding and ongoing operational requirements contained in [the rules] directly on retail customers — a category of entity that the Legislature deliberately excluded from ERCOT’s authority.” 

Texas Industrial Energy Consumers made similar comments, writing, “Unlike Market Participants who must agree to comply with and be bound by all ERCOT Protocols as a condition of participating in the wholesale market, pure retail loads have made no such commitment and have no such obligation.”

TIEC also argued that ERCOT lacks the expertise to “develop reasonable operational requirements for complex, costly manufacturing equipment. It is completely inappropriate to give ERCOT the ability to directly regulate businesses who are not participating in the wholesale market and are not otherwise regulated entities.”

In a staff memo from the PUC’s R. Floyd Walker, senior counsel with the commission’s market analysis division, Walker dismissed concerns over the PUC’s authority. Those commenters “seem to be working under the assumption that explicitly statutory authority is required,” he wrote. “Staff respectfully submits that delegated authority is sufficient.”

“There is no debate that voltage and frequency excursions on the transmission network create reliability concerns, which increase with the interconnection of each new large computational load,” Walker said. “Accordingly, if approved by the Commission, the provisions of [the rules] would be within ERCOT’s authority by virtue of that approval.”

Comments from the Texas Blockchain Council argued that proposed mitigation approaches for LCLs, such as the installation of dedicated battery storage, “are neither practical nor economical at scale.”

“While battery solutions have been suggested, we are not aware of any that have been successfully tested or deployed at the scale required for [LCLs],” the group wrote. “Even if pursued, mandating dedicated batteries for each facility would be unlikely to fully resolve the underlying technical challenges and would impose substantial costs, currently estimated at more than $1.6 million per MW, making such an approach economically prohibitive for most operations.”

ERCOT staff approved of the rules, writing in a market impact statement that they provide “necessary requirements to reduce the reliability risk posed by LCLs unexpectedly tripping or transferring to backup generation when frequency and voltage excursions within a specified range occur.”

In official comments, ERCOT wrote that LCL loss wasn’t a hypothetical, and ERCOT “has experienced 28 events involving LCL trips of at least 100 MW due to voltage and frequency excursions since the beginning of 2023. This risk will increase exponentially with the significant growth of LCLs expected in the ERCOT Region.”

Developers have requested studies for more than 438 GW of large load projects within ERCOT’s footprint, and “even if only a small fraction of these projects materialize, this will significantly increase the risk that cascading outages could occur due to LCL failures to ride through typical voltage or frequency disturbances,” ERCOT said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 10:10

"I'm Not Living In Communist America": Bill Maher Blasts Marxist DSA Democrats, Says He May Vote For JD Vance

Zero Hedge -

"I'm Not Living In Communist America": Bill Maher Blasts Marxist DSA Democrats, Says He May Vote For JD Vance

"I'm not living in Communist America… I've read the quotes from the DSA platform, from their own mouths. Don't tell me I'm not seeing what I am seeing," Bill Maher told ABC News' Jonathan Karl in an exclusive interview that aired on Sunday.

Karl asked Maher, "Could you see yourself voting for JD Vance?"

Maher responded: "Yes. If this is the Democratic side, yes."

Establishment Democrats are freaking out over the Democratic Socialists of America's attempted hijacking of their party because this anti-American, far-left Marxist movement, with possible ties to foreign subversion, risks dooming the party in the midterms and beyond.

The problem for Democrats is that years of letting socialists and Marxists into their DEI kingdom have only now produced dire consequences. Status quo Democrats are watching their power evaporate as DSA candidates defeat mainstream Democrats in primaries across New York, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and other states.

About two weeks ago, Mark Penn, the former Clinton adviser and White House pollster, used a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed to sound the alarm over the rise of DSA.

Penn warned: "Lawmakers, law-enforcement agencies and journalists should investigate the DSA to see if it is being funded by foreign governments and interests."

Then Jamie Metzl, who served in the Clinton White House, sounded the alarm about DSA in an X post, stating, "Every Democrat and every American should recognize that the DSA represents a fundamental threat to our party and our country."

Why is DSA a liability for Democrats? Well, their agenda is to destroy America:

DSA leaders promote "destroying America from within" ...

Another DSA member says she is totally fine with national socialists. National socialists are commonly known as Nazis.

New polling indicates that Americans across the political spectrum overwhelmingly reject communism, reinforcing the view that the DSA represents a major political liability for Democrats.

The anti-American Marxist movement's growing influence also comes as the State Department intensifies efforts to identify and dismantle far-left extremist organizations seeking to undermine the country in subversion efforts.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 09:40

Tungsten Miner Soars After Billionaire Forrest Takes 17% Stake

Zero Hedge -

Tungsten Miner Soars After Billionaire Forrest Takes 17% Stake

Australian mining billionaire Andrew Forrest, founder and executive chairman of iron ore giant Fortescue, has agreed to acquire Oaktree Capital's entire 16.8% stake in the Sydney-listed tungsten producer EQ Resources.

Shares of EQ Resources in Sydney surged 34% on Monday following news of the transaction, which is valued at about 190 million AUD ($133 million) based on Friday's close. The deal covers 862.1 million shares and 35.6 million options.

Forrest's most likely reasoning for the deal is that EQ Resources controls one of the largest operating tungsten platforms outside China. Tungsten is a critical metal used in armor-piercing munitions, aerospace components, cutting tools, electronics, and semiconductor manufacturing.

Bloomberg noted that, outside of China, Australia has the world's largest tungsten reserves, accounting for about 80% of global production.

Prices of tungsten in Europe reached a new all-time high of $3,025 per ton after a year-long rally, following Beijing's decision to place certain tungsten products on its export control list. Beyond China, stockpiling has accelerated and war demand is driving a squeeze in physical markets.

George Heppel, vice president of commodity research, told Bloomberg earlier this year: "In my 12 years working across the commodity space and dealing with a lot of weird and wonderful metals, I have never seen a market as tight as tungsten is right now, aside from maybe lithium in 2021." 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 09:05

US Agencies Miss GENIUS Act Deadline, Extending Stablecoin Uncertainty

Zero Hedge -

US Agencies Miss GENIUS Act Deadline, Extending Stablecoin Uncertainty

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

US regulatory agencies missed the rulemaking deadline under the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act on Saturday, which marked one year since the law was signed. 

Several US regulatory agencies published proposed rules and collected public feedback during the past year, but no final regulations were issued before the deadline.

These agencies include the Department of the Treasury, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve Board, which issued proposed rules but no final rules, according to rulemaking trackers by law firm Chapman and crypto investment company Paradigm.

Missing the statutory deadline does not invalidate the GENIUS Act, but the unfinished rules may result in regulatory uncertainty for stablecoin issuers. 

The GENIUS Act established the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the US. The act was signed into law by US President Donald Trump on July 18, 2025.

Regulators issued 10 rule proposals during the GENIUS Act’s first year

Federal regulators issued 10 notices of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) in the year since the GENIUS Act was signed into law, according to Paradigm.

The Treasury Department issued four proposals covering the broader implementation of the act, including standards for determining whether state stablecoin regulatory regimes are similar to the federal framework, registration requirements for foreign stablecoin issuers and guidelines for compliance with anti-money laundering measures.

Rulemaking progress after the GENIUS Act was signed into law. Source: Paradigm.

The OCC issued two NPRMs covering nationally chartered payment stablecoin issuers, approval requirements and supervisory standards.

The FDIC issued one NPRM on FDIC-supervised institutions that issue payment stablecoins, focused on supervisory expectations and operational standards such as reserve management.

The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) proposed rules enabling federally insured credit unions to participate in stablecoin issuance.

Finally, federal banking agencies jointly proposed an interagency implementation rule to harmonize supervision across the OCC, Federal Reserve and FDIC, aiming to ensure consistent supervisory expectations across all federal regulators.

Anchorage urges lawmakers to pass CLARITY Act

Federally chartered crypto bank Anchorage Digital has urged lawmakers to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY).

“On GENIUS’ one-year anniversary, we’re renewing our call for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and extend the clear market-structure rules that worked for stablecoins to the broader digital asset economy,” Anchorage Digital wrote in a Friday report.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish the first federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, though banking industry groups argued that it would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional banks.

On July 13, state banking associations, including the American Bankers Association (ABA) and the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA), sent a joint letter urging Senate leaders to provide more detail on the CLARITY Act’s stablecoin yield provisions and argued that new amendments need to prevent payment stablecoins from acting as deposit substitutes rather than pure transaction tools.

On June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, citing the lack of a unified Senate Banking-Agriculture text, no firm floor schedule and a narrowing legislative window before lawmakers leave Washington. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 08:45

Futures Rebound On Fresh Bout Of Iran Optimism As Hyperscaler Earnings Loom

Zero Hedge -

Futures Rebound On Fresh Bout Of Iran Optimism As Hyperscaler Earnings Loom

US equity futures rebound from Friday's selling, indicating a firmer start to the week with S&P futures rising 0.5% at 8.00am ET, and Nasdaq futures up 1% after a sluggish start to the session, after Iran’s Foreign  Ministry said it had received proposals from mediators about the conflict with the US. In premarket trading, semis are higher as are Mag7 names; the AI theme is bid across sectors. Cyclicals are leading Defensives; both are higher in absolute terms, pointing to an ‘Everything Rally’ today. According to JPM, the US / Iran escalation is being faded with WTI lower pre-market and Brent off its highs. Bond yields are flat to up 1bp s the yield curve twists steeper. Commodities are mixed but net higher with US crude/natgas lower. The update from Iran has seen energy prices reverse gains with Brent now down 0.3% and on an $87/bbl handle. European stocks are now a touch higher with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% Asian stocks were more mixed as a 4.5% plunge in the Kospi was offset by advances in China after two major state funds showed fresh purchases of domestic stocks. Bonds are still down but off session lows with Treasuries off by 3 ticks and yields up around 1bps across the US curve. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has been choppy but ultimately flat with the greenback mixed versus G10 peers. Spot gold is up 0.1%, while silver rises 1.5%. Bitcoin has been on the back foot, down 0.5%. This week is a light macro data with the next Fed mtg on July 29, today we receive the Leading Index. 

 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Nvidia  +1.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.3%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.8%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.01%, Apple (AAPL) -0.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.6%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.3%

  • AMC Entertainment (AMC) gains 16% after the theater operator posted revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Shares of peer Imax (IMAX) climbs 3%.
  • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) rises 7% after the restaurant chain reported second-quarter revenue that beat analyst estimates. Chief Executive Officer Russell Weiner said the company “drove meaningful order count growth” during the period.
  • Fervo Energy (FRVO) rises 4% as Jefferies upgrades to buy following the stock’s recent pull-back from its IPO highs.
  • Global Payments (GPN) gains 1.7% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight, citing constructive checks on Genius and Worldpay businesses.
  • Hut 8 (HUT) rises 13% after the data center operator and Bitcoin miner announced a second 15-year lease for its Beacon Point data center campus in
  • Nueces County, Texas, that’s valued at  $9.8 billion.
  • Iren (IREN) climbs 8% after the owner and manager of data centers powered by renewable energy raised its year-end AI cloud annualized run-rate revenue target to more than $4 billion.
  • LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) climbs 3% as Brookfield Asset Management and CPP Investments agreed to buy the company  in an all-cash deal valued at about $5.2 billion.
  • Urban Outfitters (URBN) rises 4% as Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy noting upside to the stock as the UO brand recovery bolsters profitability.
  • Yeti Holdings (YETI) is up 4% as Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy, saying the outdoor coolers and insulated bottle maker’s growth outlook is becoming more durable.

Futures are pointing to a positive start to cash trading as markets head into a week of contrasts: as Bloomberg notes, the economic calendar is sparse, but a deluge of earnings reports will test whether company results can match high expectations. S&P 500 futures were 0.5% higher as geopolitics once again dominated weekend news as fighting between the US and Iran escalated. Trump has remained silent so far on his next move, while average gas pump prices climbed back above $4 a gallon — a painful level for consumers. The next 2 weeks we get hyperscaler earnings, which are viewed as the next positive catalyst. As noted above, over the weekend US / Iran escalation is being faded with WTI lower pre-mkt and Brent off its highs, now below $90.

Investors “still think the US and Iran will go back to the negotiation table,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Only once the US is no longer willing to negotiate do we expect markets to price higher oil prices for longer... The sentiment among investors remains positively biased, despite the setbacks in the tech space last week. This bodes well for renewed market stability this week.”

Still, stock index volatility is creeping higher as it catches up to much higher single stock vol, and demand for hedging is rising, with a measure of Skew jumping to its highest level since April — threatening to pull other volatility measures higher. Meanwhile, as Goldman noted overnight, extreme stock swings are tempting funds into reverse dispersion trades. 

High volatility in AI stocks, a plunging momentum factor, and ultra-low correlations across S&P 500 stocks are reasons for renewed interest in investment themes outside AI, according to Goldman. 

Meanwhile, pressure is building for the biggest spenders on AI to justify their expenditures to traders, with earnings reports over the next two weeks to be scoured for evidence that the investments are generating bigger returns. Ever the permabulls (since Kolanovich quit), JPMorgan strategists see AI-linked stocks as unlikely to remain under pressure for long, expecting strong earnings growth and improving valuations to reignite demand, led by semiconductor companies.


Meanwhile, last week's release of Moonshoot Kimi K3 AI model late last week was followed by Alibaba’s Qwen 3.8-Max preview over the weekend — suggesting competition in advanced AI models is broadening beyond US frontier labs.

Alphabet will kick off quarterly earnings from AI hyperscalers on Wednesday. The report comes at a time when chip stocks, the S&P 500’s biggest driver of 2026, have entered a bear market over worries that the likes of Alphabet won’t sustain vast outlays on the global buildout of AI infrastructure. “This week, we wait for the hyperscalers to report and especially pay attention to their monetization efforts and their capex intentions,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “This could calm the market.”

uropean stocks recoup initial losses with the Stoxx 600 little changed at 641.78 as Brent crude advances with the US and Iran engaged in a series of tit-for-tat attacks. Ryanair is one of the day’s biggest laggards, falling as much as 6.9% after the airline’s results were hit by rising oil prices and fare reductions. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

  • Lagercrantz rallies as much as 5.9%, the most in two months, as the industrial conglomerate receives upgrades from SEB Equities, Pareto and Handelsbanken following its first-quarter result
  • Munters advances as much as 6.3% after SEB and DNB Carneige upgraded their respective views on the Swedish industrial heating and air company to buy, while Jefferies reiterated its buy rating
  • DocMorris rises as much as 5.1%, the most in nearly a week, after the stock was upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS, which cited “a more constructive view” on the online pharmacy’s margin prospects
  • PolyPeptide gains as much as 5.8% to CHF44.15 after Samsung Biologics agreed to acquire the Swiss contract drugmaker in an all-cash deal, with analysts saying the deal is fairly valued overall
  • Fresenius shares advance as much as 2.5%  as Deutsche Bank sees potential for an upgrade to earnings guidance when the German health-care company reports results next month
  • Prysmian rises as much as 2.8% after the Italian company signed a 10-year agreement with Koch Inc.’s Molex to supply optical cables to data centers. Such a deal had been long awaited and is likely to reassure investors, analysts say
  • Ryanair shares drop as much as 7.6%, the most since March, after a significant dip in first-quarter profit compared to the previous year as conflict in the Middle East lifted oil prices and impacted demand
  • Nokian Renkaat falls as much as 10% after Nordea cut the tiremaker to sell from hold following its recent strong run. Analysts said the 10% year-on-year volume increase for the second quarter “cannot be maintained for long”
  • Belimo shares drop as much as 9%, hitting a two-month low, after strong results from the heating and ventilation specialist were offset by its failure to explicitly reiterate its revenue guidance
  • Segro shares fall as much as 1.9% to 880p each after the UK warehouse landlord rejected a third proposal from Prologis, which valued the stock at 993p, or about £13.5 billion for the whole company
  • Corbion shares fall as much as 5.4% after Oddo BHF cut the food and chemicals ingredients producer to neutral. Analyst Robert Jan Vos said he sees a “real risk” of a profit warning at the July 31 earnings announcement
  • Clariant shares fall as much as 5.2% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the Swiss chemicals company to underweight from equalweight, seeing continued pressure on earnings due to the Middle East conflict

Asian stocks were mixed as South Korean equities were led lower by chip stocks, while Chinese equities were bolstered after state funds revealed fresh purchases. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between small gains and losses. Korea’s Kospi slid as much as 5.1% after being closed on Friday for a public holiday, with chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest contributors to its decline. Chinese shares rose following last week’s rout, after two major state funds said they made fresh purchases and as regulators are set to meet with key industry participants. Japanese markets are shut for a holiday.  Korea’s sharp swings “show that AI and semiconductor de-risking is not over,” said Charu Chanana, a chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “China tech is offsetting some of the regional weakness, but this is not a broad Asia risk-on move.” “Cheaper and more efficient Chinese AI is raising the bar for US Big Tech ahead of earnings: talking about another increase in capex may no longer be enough.” Asian sectors to watch

  • Chinese coal and oil stocks jumped as the US and Iran continued to escalate back-and-forth attacks, heightening to the need to secure energy supplies outside the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Kweichow Moutai’s shares rise as much as 2.6% after the liquor maker announced price increases, a move that analysts say is intended to defend margins and spur more direct-to-consumer sales.
  • Chinese optical stocks rally after several major companies delivered solid 1H preliminary earnings.
  • Chinese molybdenum stocks jump after CCTV reports on surging prices, tight supply and potential growth outlook.
  • Shares of Alibaba gain as much as 5.4% in Hong Kong after releasing a preview version of its flagship Qwen3.8 Max model, describing it as second only to Anthropic’s Fable 5.
  • Shares linked to Chinese battery makers mostly decline after the nation said it plans to impose a consumption tax for products including lithium-ion batteries and solar cells.
  • Asian energy shares follow oil higher after fresh attacks across the Middle East resulted in the US announcing the death of a third service member in the past two days.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has been choppy but ultimately flat with the greenback mixed versus G10 peers.

In commodities, news that Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it had received proposals from mediators about the conflict with the US sent energy prices lower with Brent now down 0.3% and on an $87/bbl handle. Bonds are still down but off session lows with Treasuries off by 3 ticks and yields up around 1bps across the US curve. Spot gold is up 0.1%, while silver rises 1.5%. Bitcoin has been on the back foot, down 0.5%. 

The only item on today's economic calendar is at 10:00 am when we get the June Leading Index, est. -0.09%, prior 0.1%.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • U.S. gasoline pump prices crossed the $4 a gallon mark on Monday as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran further disrupt energy ‌flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies. National average retail gasoline prices have climbed more than 30% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. The average pump price on Monday was $4.0030 a gallon, according to AAA data. ReutersChina’s “national team” of funds stepped into the equity market and made sizeable purchases in an attempt to bolster prices following last week’s slump. FT
  • Chinese officials will contemplate stimulus measures, including accelerating bond issuance, after GDP fell below the government’s target range in Q2. FT
  • Iran’s currency has sunk to record low levels vs. the USD as the country’s economy comes under further strain. FT
  • Iraq is using a vast fleet of trucks to carry fuel oil through Syria and reroute flows away from the Strait of Hormuz. BBG 
  • Moonshot is getting ready for a Hong Kong IPO in as early as the next six months as it looks to tap capital markets after wrapping a fundraise that may value it at more than $30 billion BBG
  • Hong Kong is considering extending equity trading hours to align with most global markets, including a proposal to eliminate the lunch break. BBG
  • Andy Burnham was named the UK’s Prime Minister today, the country’s seventh premier in just over a decade. BBG
  • TSMC is adding $100 billion to its investments in Arizona to meet strong US demand and ward off rivals, CFO Wendell Huang said, after beating profit expectations last quarter. BBG
  • US President Trump posted "Wonderful news! I have just been informed that Giant Eagle, a GREAT American Grocery Company, will be lowering prices, by a lot, across more than 300 products this Summer, through Labor Day, to help hardworking American families".

Top Iran News

  • US and Iran engaged in another exchange of strikes after an Iranian attack on Jordan killed two US service members on Friday, while Tehran said it was suspending its commitments under the interim peace deal as strikes ramped up.
  • US President Trump said we hit Iran very hard again tonight and hit Iran in honour of probably three patriots who died, adding we are ending any chance of Iran having a nuclear weapon.
  • US Central Command announced the ninth consecutive evening of strikes against Iran, in which targets included Iranian military command centres, air defence and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communication networks, to further diminish Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM also announced it redirected 6 commercial vessels and disabled 1 to ensure full compliance, as of July 19th.
  • Explosions were heard in Iran's Tabriz and the city of Jask in the Hormozgan province in southern Iran, while explosions were also reported in Sirik and Khormoj, southern Iran. Furthermore, there were explosions in Delijan in the southern Markazi province and Arak in western Iran, while air defences were activated in Konarak city, Sistan and the Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran.
  • Iran launched missiles from its Lorestan province in western Iran towards enemy targets, and blasts were reported at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while explosions were also reported in the UAE's Ras Al-Khaimah.
  • US is said to be planning for a wider war, according to a US official familiar with internal administration discussions, cited by The Washington Post.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said the US remains open to a diplomatic resolution regarding Iran, while Rubio also stated that his meeting with the Lebanese President was very positive.
  • Iran’s nuclear agency condemned a US attack on the site of the nuclear power plant under construction in Darkhovin, which it said violated international law, according to Mehr News Agency, although it didn’t mention when the strike took place.
  • Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the US strike on the under-construction power plant was a dangerous attack on Iran's peaceful infrastructure, and the US must bear full responsibility for any escalation and the resulting insecurity and instability.
  • IRGC said it destroyed 20 warehouses used by US forces in the Azraq region of Jordan, resulting in the deaths of dozens of soldiers, according to Al Jazeera Mubasher.
  • IRGC said two ships were involved in an “accident” after attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz via an unsafe route, and that two other vessels abandoned the route, while it warned that vessels influenced by the US and entering unsafe routes will certainly face accidents. It was later reported that IRGC said two oil tankers were blown up after attempting to transit the southern route in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • UKMTO said it has received a report of the incident eight nautical miles northwest of Oman's Khumsar, with a vessel on fire, but the cause has not been verified yet.
  • Tehran Times noted reports of an unprecedented rise in opposition to the war within various ranks of the US military, while it noted that refusals by US personnel to carry out orders from superiors are increasing at an unprecedented rate, citing multiple intelligence sources.
  • Kuwait's Defence Ministry said Iran conducted sustained strikes against civil and critical infrastructure on Kuwaiti territory, which caused multiple fires and severe damage.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests and that intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days. Mediators are continuing their efforts to prevent escalation, and we have received proposals from them, but we will not go into details now. He added that they will not abandon talks with the US but Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable.
  • Al Jazeera source in Pakistan's Interior Ministry said the Iranian Interior Minister arrived in Pakistan's capital Islamabad today. Iran and Pakistan will hold extensive consultations on border management, cross-border security and the implementation of the Islamabad MoU, alongside other issues of mutual concern, Journalist Mallick reported.
  • The Yemeni Armed Forces said an announcement of an important position to be released at 3pm Sana'a time (13:00BST).
  • Explosions were sounded in Isfahan, however reports state they were caused by controlled explosions. Additionally, Iran's Bushehr Governor said Bushehr was targeted twice by the American enemy.
  • Unofficial reports indicate that one drone struck the grounds of Kuwait's main power plant, Tasnim reported

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed following the US-Iran escalation over the weekend, in which the sides ramped up their strikes after two US service members were killed during an Iranian strike on Jordan, while key participants were away owing to the holiday closure in Japan for Marine Day. ASX 200 was rangebound with light pertinent catalyst and a lack of data releases overnight. KOSPI underperformed as the tech-related losses late last week caught up with the index on return from a 3-day weekend, while South Korea had temporarily banned new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to tech companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to curb extreme market volatility. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rallied with strength seen in energy and tech-related stocks amid higher oil prices and reports that launched a preview of its flagship Qwen3.8 Max model, which is said to be comparable to leading frontier AI models. Furthermore, the PBoC maintained its benchmark LPRs for the 14th consecutive month, while China’s leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures at the Politburo meeting this month.

Top Asian News

  • HKEX is reportedly mulling longer stock trading hours, and scraps lunch break.
  • China’s top leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures this month following a sharp slowdown in Q2 GDP, with leaders expected to focus on speeding up bond issuance at their next Politburo meeting, expected to take place during the final week of July, according to FT.

European equity futures are mixed, following on from a similar theme seen across APAC indices. Early morning action saw indices broadly subdued, reacting to the latest round of US-Iran strikes, where Iran officially suspended its cooperation in the Islamabad MoU. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister lifted sentiment after he stated that negotiations with the US could be pursued, based on national interests; he added that intermediaries shared messages with Tehran in recent days. This spurred some mild upticks across European indices. European sectors hold a very slight negative bias. Energy unsurprisingly takes the top spot, given the aforementioned geopolitical developments. Tech and Media complete the top three. The tech strength comes in contrast to the underperformance seen in APAC trade, whereby the likes of Samsung (-4.3%) and SK Hynix (-4.2%) both extended lower. No particular driver for the strength seen across European tech names, but potentially some positioning into a busy tech-earnings slate this week. To the downside, Travel & Leisure has been dragged down by a) elevated energy prices, b) Ryanair earnings. On the latter point, Ryanair extends lower by c. 5.9%, after reporting a miss on its headline metrics and sees lower summer fares citing waning demand. It also suggested that it has no visibility for H2, amidst the ongoing Iran uncertainty.

Top European news

  • UK’s Andy Burnham is to drop plans for a digital ID in a ‘reset of priorities’ and will focus on cost-of-living policies, when he becomes PM on Monday.

FX

  • 2G10s are mixed, but mostly firmer against the Buck with FX-specific catalysts light, and geopolitics not giving much of a bias. Antipodeans lead after reports of potential Chinese stimulus, GBP performs well into Burnham's appointment as PM.
  • USD continues to be driven by geopolitics, with the Greenback reversing earlier gains in tandem with energy benchmarks after Iran’s Foreign Ministry noted the nation is open to returning to talks. Aside from this, fresh drivers are light with last week’s inflation (PPI/CPI) in focus ahead of PCE, with the data slate light in the remainder of this week. DXY saw a modest bid at the Sunday re-open to a 100.80 peak, though reversed as mentioned, to a 100.65 trough.
  • Burnham is set to become UK PM after midday today. The main focus for GBP is whether he confirms Mahmood as Chancellor, after UK press widely reported last week that she would take the job, alongside any remarks around public control in the water/energy sector, and how this would be funded. Sterling is one of the best G10 performers today, sitting around 0.85 in the EUR cross and below 1.35 in Cable. The UK calendar today is light; the week sees LFS and Inflation data.
  • Antipodeans are the best performers alongside a broad bid in Chinese assets, where its leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures at the Politburo meeting this month. AUD/USD, NZD/USD +0.3%.
Fixed Income
  • Global fixed income benchmarks are softer across the board, but are off their worst levels following recent remarks by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei, who noted that negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests, that intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days and that Iran will not abandon talks with the US. This constructive rhetoric by the spokesman comes amid a ninth straight day of strikes between the US and Iran. Iran killed two service members in Jordan and one in Iraq over the weekend, while the US continued to target Iranian military capabilities.
  • Gilts (-16 ticks) are in focus today as Labour leader Burnham is set to become PM. He is to meet the King around noon to accept his appointment and then give his first speech between 12:30-13:00BST in front of 10 Downing Street. Although this will be widely watched, the key will be on who he appoints as the Chancellor. It has been widely touted that the current Home Secretary, Mahmood, will be given the role of Chancellor. Analysts see the 2s-30s curve flattening if Burnham's choice of chancellor aligns with market expectations, given Mahmood is seen as fiscally prudent.
  • Bunds (-8 ticks) follow the broader space higher, given the recent fall in energy prices. This week's focus will be on the ECB policy announcement on Thursday, in which the Bank is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%, with only a 16% chance of a hike in July. However, analysts continue to see further hikes in 2026, with 22bps priced in for a hike in September.
  • USTs (-3 ticks) have returned to their opening price, trading at the upper end of their 109-00+ to 109-06 range. Not much on the docket this week, given Fed officials are on blackout ahead of their policy meeting.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent Front-month futures are off their best levels after opening higher overnight in reaction to the military escalation, before waning in early European hours on continued efforts for diplomacy. To recap, the US and Iran ramped up their exchange of strikes following the death of a couple of US service members due to Iran attacking Jordan on Friday, while CENTCOM announced the 9th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, and Iran continued to retaliate against US interests and allies. Thereafter, initial weakness this morning emanated from reports that Pakistan's Interior Ministry says the Iranian Interior Minister arrives in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, today. The downside was further exacerbated by commentary from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei, who said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests; Intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days. Further, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it will not abandon talks with the US, but Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable.
  • Price action this morning has largely followed headlines. Brent Sep’26 hit an overnight peak of USD 91.42/bbl before moving back to lows of USD 87.72/bbl. Similarly, WTI Sep’26 notched a current high at 84.60/bbl before falling to a USD 81.11/bbl trough at the time of writing. Ahead, there could be some risk around 13:00BST as the Yemeni Armed Forces said “an announcement of an important position” will be made at that time.
  • Precious metals remain in a narrow range but have lifted off worst levels in tandem with the Dollar easing in lockstep with oil. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,982-USD 4,030/oz range. Spot silver has picked up momentum in recent trade, back on a USD 57/oz handle vs lows of USD 55.50/oz.
  • Base metals are mixed and continue with similar price action seen during APAC hours. Copper futures eke out mild gains alongside the outperformance in red metal's largest buyer overnight.
  • Iraq's SOMO is reportedly looking to buy Aug-Sep gasoil deliveries, according to documents.
  • Syria has emerged as a regional hub for Iraqi fuel oil exports, with more than a quarter of Middle East fuel oil shipments transiting Syrian Mediterranean ports, according to the Syrian state news agency.
  • Oil loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on the Black Sea coast were suspended following a drone attack.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump said maybe Canada should pay some damages for wildfires, and that he spoke with Canada's PM Carney regarding the fires, while Trump added that they have a good relationship with Canada and have no tension with anybody regarding trade.
  • UK trade negotiators made last-minute concessions to India that could undermine Tata Steel UK’s Llanwern plant in Newport, to secure a much-lauded trade deal, according to some industry insiders cited by FT.

Geopolitics

  • Russia and Ukraine exchanged fresh strikes on warehouses and ports over the weekend.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said that they struck three oil depots in Russia’s Stravpol region, while Foreign Minister Sybiha said Russia conducted its largest ballistic missile barrage against Kyiv since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, involving around four dozen ballistic missiles.
  • Moscow's Mayor reported overnight drone incidents, and TASS estimated that the attempted drone attack on Moscow is one of the largest in several years, while Russian authorities said that 400 marches were launched towards Moscow although most were neutralised.
  • Russia's Salavat refinery has reportedly restored some of its damaged capacities following a drone strike.
  • EU is facing a collapse in support for new economic sanctions against Russia, with members refusing to back measures that could damage their corporate champions, according to FT citing diplomats.

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00 am: Jun Leading Index, est. -0.09%, prior 0.1%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

From the World Cup to "Mapping the World’s Prices 2026", released last week and already attracting extensive global coverage along with more than 30,000 downloads. The standout theme from this year’s edition is just how inexpensive Japan has become, although the report is packed with data across 69 financially important cities worldwide. You can find the report here at the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. 

Just as you thought it was safe to relax into the summer, last week brought a reminder that there remain some big unresolved themes that could become an issue in thin summer liquidity. Brent saw its largest weekly increase (+15.9%) since April as the US and Iran continued to exchange blows, with European natural gas seeing its highest close since March.  

Over the weekend, the conflict has intensified markedly, with a fresh wave of tit-for-tat attacks underscoring how quickly the situation is deteriorating. Three US service members were killed in separate incidents in Jordan and Iraq, while US strikes hit targets including Qeshm Island and multiple locations in southern Iran. At the same time, Iran broadened its retaliation beyond military sites, targeting critical infrastructure across the Gulf, including power and desalination facilities in Kuwait, as well as launching drone and missile attacks towards US bases and regional allies. And prospects for any diplomatic breakthrough remained dim, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi suggesting that some nuclear issues may “remain unresolvable”.

Tensions also escalated further in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran signalling a far more assertive stance over shipping flows and claiming to have intercepted vessels attempting to transit the waterway. 

In response, this morning Brent is up +2.45% to $90.26/bbl after a ninth consecutive night of US strikes against Iran. Given the escalation US futures are performing relatively well with S&P (+0.15%) and Nasdaq (+0.47%) contracts higher. In Asia markets are generally higher but the KOSPI (-3.22%) continues its wild ride, though has improved from being down -5% as I’ve been writing this.

Chinese related equities are strong, with the Hang Seng (+2.04%), CSI 300 (+1.55%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.18%) all higher. Elsewhere the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.17%) is edging higher, and Japanese markets are closed today for the Marine Day holiday. This means no cash US Treasury trading but bond futures are down on the higher oil prices. 

Staying in Asia, concerns continued to mount over the competitive progress of China’s AI ecosystem last week. We’ve been tracking the rapid climb of Chinese models and token use in various CoTDs with data updated in the WOW! pack (link here) showing the intelligence vs cost comparison of US and Chinese models. Chinese labs are seemingly catching up fast.

The micro implications are as important as some Chinese models are being priced at levels broadly comparable to mid-tier US models (e.g. Anthropic Sonnet), despite performance that approaches higher-end systems, implying a materially lower cost-to-intelligence ratio. That challenges the economics of the current US-led AI stack, where frontier capability has been associated with very high compute and capital intensity. A key differentiator is approach: Chinese models are increasingly released as open-weight systems, allowing developers and enterprises to download, modify and run them locally, whereas US leaders have largely pursued closed, proprietary models delivered via APIs. This open approach accelerates adoption, innovation and cost competition, as it decentralises development and reduces reliance on a small number of providers, but also undermines pricing power and control. The immediate market reaction—pressure on AI and semiconductor names—reflects a reassessment of whether the industry’s current capex trajectory is sustainable if similar performance can be delivered more cheaply. More broadly, successive Chinese releases are eroding the scarcity premium embedded in proprietary models, accelerating a shift toward commoditisation, tighter margins and faster global diffusion as open-weight systems lower barriers to entry.

At the macro level, this could encourage faster, wider and cheaper adoption of AI which will be more positive for productivity. However, it also raises the risk of a capex overcycle in the US if returns on AI infrastructure come under pressure, while also intensifying geopolitical fragmentation as competing technology stacks evolve. So an absolutely fascinating development to watch. It’s hard to underestimate its importance. 

Back to the more mundane, and for the week ahead, the ECB decision on Thursday and the global flash PMIs on Friday will be the main macro highlights. Alongside this, a new Prime Minister in the UK today, and a heavy run of global earnings will keep markets busy, with key reports from Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, SK Hynix and SAP, among others, offering an important read on tech as we see a major wobble in the sector. 

In the US, the calendar is comparatively quiet, with Fed officials in blackout ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. Thursday brings initial jobless claims, which we expect to continue signalling a stable labour market, consistent with the recent downward trend in both initial and continuing claims. This week’s release coincides with survey week for payrolls, which gives it slightly more importance. On Friday, the July flash PMIs will be the main focus. 

The week begins today with the UK seeing a change in leadership as Andy Burnham takes office as Prime Minister, with ministers beginning to be appointed, and policy plans starting to take shape. Tomorrow, UK labour market data will be released, followed by Wednesday’s June inflation report, where our UK economist expects headline CPI to ease to 2.70% year-on-year, core CPI to 2.55%, and services inflation to moderate to 3.45%. The UK week concludes on Friday with retail sales, the GfK consumer confidence index, and the Bank of England’s DMP survey, all of which will provide further colour on the consumer backdrop. Elsewhere in Europe, tomorrow sees the release of the German and Eurozone ZEW surveys, while Thursday’s ECB decision is the key focal point. Markets are currently pricing a hold, which aligns with our European economists’ expectations, with a further rate increase more likely in September. The ECB will also publish its bank lending survey tomorrow and its consumer expectations survey on Friday, offering additional insight into credit conditions and inflation expectations.

In Asia, the main focus will be on Japan, where Wednesday’s trade balance will provide an update on external dynamics, followed by Friday’s national CPI. Our Japan economist expects core CPI to rise to 1.7% year-on-year, with core-core inflation edging up to 1.9%, pointing to a gradual firming in underlying price pressures. Elsewhere, Australia’s labour force survey on Thursday will be the key regional release.

Finally, the Q2 earnings season accelerates significantly over the week. Momentum gets going tomorrow with a broad set of financials and industrials reporting including Novartis, Charles Schwab and General Motors. Wednesday is one of the busiest days, with major technology names such as Alphabet and Tesla reporting alongside IBM, ServiceNow and Texas Instruments, as well as a range of European corporates including Banco Santander and Deutsche Boerse. Thursday continues the heavy flow with Intel, SK Hynix and SAP among the highlights, alongside a wide range of US and European names including Roche, Nestlé, Lockheed Martin and BNP Paribas. The week concludes on Friday with results from American Express, NextEra Energy and Verizon, among others.

Recapping last week now, geopolitics remained top of the agenda for markets, with a sharp rise in oil prices as the strikes between the US and Iran showed no sign of easing. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices ended the week up +15.91% (+4.59% Friday) at $88.10/bbl, marking their biggest weekly jump since April. So that revived fears about a more persistent inflation shock, particularly with European natural gas prices also rising, and the front-end future rose +19.95% last week (+5.79% Friday) to its highest level since March at €58.01/MWh.

Geopolitical fears also interacted with fresh concerns around the AI trade, which meant that equities took a hit around the world. That was particularly clear for chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index down -9.97% last week (-1.63% Friday), marking its biggest weekly decline since the week of the Liberation Day tariff announcements last year. Moreover, that meant the index moved into a bear market, having now shed -20.23% since its closing peak back on June 22. In turn, that coincided with other equity declines, with the S&P 500 down -1.55% (-1.01% Friday), and Japan’s Nikkei also had its biggest decline since the week of Liberation Day, falling -6.44%. However, European equities were relatively resilient, with the STOXX 600 up +0.07% over the week (-0.34% Friday).

As all that was going on, US Treasuries rallied last week thanks to a softer than expected US CPI print. So that meant investors priced out the chance of a July rate hike, which fell from 34% to 14% over the course of the week. Meanwhile, the 2yr Treasury yield fell -2.9bps (+3.8bps Friday) to 4.18%, and the 10yr Treasury yield fell -1.3bps (-0.5bps Friday) to 4.55%. But whilst inflation fears fell back in the US, they returned strongly in Europe thanks to the rise in energy prices, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap up +46.9bps last week to 2.50%. So sovereign bond yields moved higher across the continent, with the 10yr bund yield up +6.0bps (-0.8bps Friday) to 3.12%. 

Finally, the dollar index weakened -0.19% last week, as investors dialled back the prospect of an imminent Fed rate hike, while gold fell below $4,000 for the first time this year before ending the week at $4,017/oz (-2.49% on the week). Otherwise, credit spreads mostly widened, with US IG (+1bps) and HY (+2bps) spreads rising marginally, along with Euro IG (+1bps) and HY (+3bps).

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 08:33

Breaking Down The $655 Million World Cup Prize Money

Zero Hedge -

Breaking Down The $655 Million World Cup Prize Money

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is awarding $655 million in performance prize money, making it the richest tournament in the competition’s history. Every stage of the tournament came with a larger financial reward, giving teams another incentive to advance as far as possible. Performance prize money has increased nearly 50% since 2022, when FIFA awarded $440 million.

This Markets in a Minute graphic, created by Visual Capitalist's Julia Wnedling, in partnership with Terzo, breaks down how the $655 million performance prize pool is distributed across every stage of the tournament. From group stage participants to the eventual champion, it shows the earnings of every qualifying country.

Spain Takes Home the World Cup

Spain captured the 2026 FIFA World Cup title and the tournament’s top prize of $50 million, while runner-up Argentina earned $33 million. It marks Spain’s second World Cup championship after previously lifting the trophy in 2010, capping off an impressive tournament run that also included victories over Belgium and France in the knockout stage.

The final remained scoreless through 90 minutes, despite Spain controlling much of the play and Argentina finishing regulation with 10 men. The deadlock finally broke in the 106th minute, when Ferran Torres scored just after the start of the second period of extra time.

Raising the World Cup Stakes

England ultimately earned $29 million by defeating France 6–4 in the third-place playoff. Bukayo Saka scored a hat trick as England survived a four-goal French comeback. France collected $27 million, while Kylian Mbappé scored twice and finished the match as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.

The four quarterfinal exits each earned $19 million. Morocco lost to France. Belgium fell after Mikel Merino scored Spain’s winner in the 88th minute. Norway led England through Andreas Schjelderup, but two Jude Bellingham goals completed a comeback. Switzerland pushed Argentina into extra time before falling.

Reaching the Last Eight Pays Off

Advancing deep into the World Cup delivers meaningful financial rewards. Teams eliminated in the Round of 16 received $15 million. Reaching the Round of 32 was worth $11 million, compared with $9 million for a group stage exit.

The expanded 48-team format means more nations share in FIFA’s record prize pool. Still, every knockout victory unlocks a larger payout, making each match increasingly valuable.

Every Win Counts

World Cup prize money has never been higher, reflecting the tournament’s growing commercial success. But for national federations and organizations alike, maximizing value isn’t just about generating more revenue. It’s also about making the most of every dollar that’s earned.

That’s true in business as well. While companies focus on growing the top line, improving profitability often starts with controlling the costs hidden in everyday contracts.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 08:25

Largest Reactor Fleet Owner Backs Shipyard Prefab Model With Gas-To-Nuclear Plan

Zero Hedge -

Largest Reactor Fleet Owner Backs Shipyard Prefab Model With Gas-To-Nuclear Plan

Constellation Energy already runs the largest nuclear fleet in the United States and has spent the last couple of years signing big power deals with data center operators and retailers to restart reactors and keep existing plants online longer. 

With Microsoft taking the restarted Three Mile Island unit and Meta locking up output from Clinton, Constellation is now looking for developers to help them bring new capacity online faster.

Their most recent move is a strategic equity investment in Blue Energy through Constellation Technology Ventures (CTV). This targets Blue Energy's shipyard-based prefabrication and project financing model for small modular reactors. 

As we reported earlier on the GE Vernova collaboration, Blue Energy is advancing a phased gas-to-nuclear approach at a planned Texas site. Two GE Vernova gas turbines would deliver roughly 1 GW starting around 2030, with the steam supply later shifting to GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 reactors targeting up to 1.5 GW of nuclear capacity. Early site works could begin this year ahead of a final investment decision in 2027. 

The CTV check marks the first investment by that unit in an American nuclear developer focused on SMRs. Terms remain undisclosed, but based on CTV’s deal size across prior energy tech investments ($4 million in SWTCH), this one likely lands in the single-digit millions.

The real value sits in the partnership signal rather than the capital itself. Constellation runs 21 reactors across multiple sites with capacity factors above 90%. An operator with that track record lending credibility to a new deployment model carries more weight than another venture check.

Blue Energy's approach attacks the construction and financing bottlenecks that have plagued new nuclear for decades. Large modules get fabricated in existing shipyards using robotic methods borrowed from offshore oil, gas, and LNG projects, then barged to site. The design keeps a clean split between the nuclear island supplied by the vendor and the balance-of-plant work done under fixed-price commercial contracts. 

That structure, paired with the NRC-approved licensing topical report, is meant to unlock project financing on a meaningful chunk of capex for the first time on a nuclear project. 

The goal remains power in 48 months or less via the gas bridge instead of the conventional decade-plus timeline.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 07:45

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