Zero Hedge

White House PressSec Slams Media Over Silence On Russia Collusion Hoax Bombshells

White House PressSec Slams Media Over Silence On Russia Collusion Hoax Bombshells

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt took members of the press corps to task over their refusal to cover newly released evidence that shows Hillary Clinton approved the Russian collusion hoax against Donald Trump.

Leavitt’s comments come on the heels of a newly declassified appendix to the Durham Report that exposes a reported Clinton campaign plan to falsely accuse President Trump of collusion with Russia.

Leavitt chided members of the press, telling them, “This is a story that every outlet in this room should be covering,” and that “This is further evidence that Hillary Clinton approved the Russia Hoax against President Trump. Her campaign financed it.”

Leavitt added that “the FBI and the CIA were both weaponized to accelerate this hoax against then-candidate and former president Trump.”

The Press Secretary told reporters that, “The president wants to see justice served and he trusts the Attorney General and the Department of Justice to implement that justice and hold these people accountable.”

The so-called “Durham annex” to John Durham’s Special Counsel report was released yesterday by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and brings previously classified information to light regarding the Clinton campaign’s plans to falsely tie Trump to Russia.

In a press release, Grassley said, “History will show that the Obama and Biden administration’s law enforcement and intelligence agencies were weaponized against President Trump. This political weaponization has caused critical damage to our institutions and is one of the biggest political scandals and cover-ups in American history. The new Trump administration has a tremendous responsibility to the American people to fix the damage done and do so with maximum speed and transparency.”

At a press conference just one week ago, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard said that the Obama administration promoted a “contrived narrative” that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

Gabbard stated, “There is irrefutable evidence that details how President Obama and his national security team directed the creation of an intelligence community assessment that they knew was false. They knew it would promote this contrived narrative that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help President Trump win, selling it to the American people as though it were true it wasn’t.”

Independent journalist Matt Taibbi has suggested that mainstream media has left itself few options because it cannot cover the most recent disclosures without making major admissions to its own part in the hoax.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 15:00

The Untold Story In Today's Jobs Report: The Unprecedented Purge Of Illegal Alien Workers

The Untold Story In Today's Jobs Report: The Unprecedented Purge Of Illegal Alien Workers

Any way you cut it, today's jobs report was ugly. Starting at the top, where the July print of just 73K missed most estimates...

... and when combined with the massive downward revision of May and June which removed nearly 260,000 jobs...

...  meant that the employment growth in the past 3 months has averaged a paltry 35,000, the worst since the covid pandemic.

While the unemployment rate was unchanged at the headline level, the unemployment for blacks surged to the highest since October 2021.

It wasn't just the headline (Establishment Survey) data that was ugly: looking deeper reveals more rot, such as the plunge in the number of employed workers tracked by the Household survey. 

The qualitative component was also ugly, with full-time jobs tumbling 440K to 134.837 million, while part-time jobs surged by 237K to 28.437 million.

And yet, amid all the ugliness, there was one saving grace and some may call it quite critical. 

Recall, that starting back in in 2023 we warned that virtually all the job creation since 2018 had gone to foreign-born workers, which as Wall Street subsequently reported, was mostly illegal aliens.

Subsequently, we also correctly predicted that the debate of legal vs illegal workers (and immigration in general) would be the biggest political talking point into the 2024 election.

Which brings us to today when the one aspect of today's jobs report which got zero mentions, was perhaps also the most important one: namely the ongoing purge of all illegal workers from the payrolls. 

As shown in the chart below, in July, the number of foreign born workers tumbled by 467K. It wasn't just July though: as shown below, foreign-born workers (which, again, are mostly illegal aliens) have declined four months in a row...

... as Trump unleashed an unprecedented crackdown on all illegal workers. 

What about native workers? Well, as the chart above shows, in July native-born workers increased by 383K, which was impressive but was less than half the remarkable 830K increase in June; both however were below the massive $1.04 million increase in April. 

And while regular readers are well aware, it may come as a surprise to many that in the five years after 2019, the US had not added a single native-born worker, and instead all the growth in the US labor force was foreign-born. But that finally changed in the past 6 months, since Trump's inauguration.

Here's the bottom line: since Trump took over, foreign-born workers have declined 5 out of 6 months, while native-born have increase 5 out of 6 months!

The chart above, more than any other variable, explains what is going on with the labor market: millions of minimum-wage illegal workers are not only not applying for jobs, but are actively losing their jobs. In the process, wages are increasing on average (since low-paying workers are no longer entering the work force and are being replaced with higher paid native workers). Indeed, we could see that today because while the overall report was very weak, average hourly earnings not only rose sequentially, but printed higher than expected.

But since there is less supply of native-American workers compared to the torrent of foreign-born illegals that defined the Biden administration, the US labor market has hit a bottleneck. And the only thing that will lift that bottleneck is when employers - who clearly still need workers, just not American workers - start paying higher wages.

The only question then will be whether the modest increase in inflation (due to higher wages) will be worth the drop in asset prices, as an increase in overall wages and spending will likely result in a stronger economy. And while we know Wall Street - whose net worth is tied not in income but assets - will hate that outcome, we are also confident which outcome Main Street will prefer. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 14:40

"No One Can Be That Wrong" - Trump Fires Labor Statistics Boss After "RIGGED" Jobs Data

"No One Can Be That Wrong" - Trump Fires Labor Statistics Boss After "RIGGED" Jobs Data

Update (1600ET): President Trump was not done yet and posted again calling today's jobs data "rigged"

In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad

— Just like when they had three great days around the 2024 Presidential Election, and then, those numbers were "taken away" on November 15, 2024, right after the Election, when the Jobs Numbers were massively revised DOWNWARD, making a correction of over 818,000 Jobs

— A TOTAL SCAM.

Jerome “Too Late" Powell is no better!

But, the good news is, our Country is doing GREAT!

Remember, there's no such thing as a coincidence in DC.

*  *  *

A dismal jobs print (and dramatically weaker revisions)...

...have prompted the president to fire the woman who 'runs the numbers'... (via Truth Social)

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory.

This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000.  

These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers.

I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY.

She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified.

Trump went on:

Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes.

McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative.

The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out?

Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.”

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

CNBC's Steve Liesman stated unequivocally that there is "no evidence jobs numbers are politicized."

Well, there was the whole 1 million downward job revision in August 2024, three weeks before the Fed cut rates 50bps two months before the 2024 election to get Kamala elected.

But aside from that...

Then Liesman went further, calling it all a conspiracy theory (now where have we heard that before?)

Hey, Steve, did Zee Russians do it?

Meanwhile, cue the lawsuits! And notice that no one is talking about Epstein today.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 14:20

Tariff Exemption Sends Orange Juice Crashing Most On Record 

Tariff Exemption Sends Orange Juice Crashing Most On Record 

Orange juice futures in New York are on track for the steepest weekly decline on record, with losses exceeding 26%, after the Trump administration formally excluded Brazilian OJ from the newly proposed 50% tariffs on U.S. imports from the South American country. The exemption sparked a sharp reversal in speculative positioning in the contracts, erasing a multi-week rally fueled by trade disruption fears. 

The executive order signed by President Trump on Wednesday delayed the implementation of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports by seven days, while exempting several products, including orange juice, civil aircraft, iron ore, coal, wood pulp, machinery, and fertilizers.

"The tide seems to be turning again for Brazil (more favorably as of Wednesday) with the announcement of a delay (by seven days) in the 50% tariff and the inclusion of some 700 exceptions (or about 45% of exports exempted from the 40pp hike) to the US tariffs on Brazilian imports (crude oil, airplanes and orange juice as the most relevant lines)," UBS analyst Justin Wensek told clients earlier this week. 

He noted, "This is a better outcome than the market had been pricing in. However, even if there were no exceptions, as UBS Brazil economists note, the roughly 60% of Brazilian exports to U.S. could be almost immediately re-routed to other countries." 

Craig Elliott, a market analyst at Expana, said Trump's Brazilian tariffs seem to bring about a "collective sigh of relief." 

"The orange juice market is currently facing challenges even without the threat of tariffs, and there does seem to be a sense of being able to get back to business as usual, and solving the difficulties," Elliott said. 

Orange juice futures in New York declined 9.2% on Friday, pushing them toward a staggering 26.5% weekly decline. This is the largest weekly decline recorded since futures data began in 1967. 

The U.S. accounts for 40% of Brazil's orange juice exports because the greening disease has decimated U.S. supplies in Florida. 

OJ prices have been halved since peaking above $5 a pound in late 2024. 

Separate tariffs on copper sent prices crashing:

Wild week for some commodity markets in the era of Trump tariffs. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 14:00

The Reveal: The Public Is Finally Learning How Democrats Pulled Off The Greatest Political Trick In History

The Reveal: The Public Is Finally Learning How Democrats Pulled Off The Greatest Political Trick In History

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This week, Washington was rocked by new releases in the declassification of material related to the origins of the Russian investigation. The material shows further evidence of a secret plan by the Clinton campaign to use the FBI and media to spread a false claim that Donald Trump was a Russian asset. With this material, the public is finally seeing how officials and reporters set into motion what may be the greatest hoax ever perpetrated in American politics. There never was a Russian collusion conspiracy. This is the emerging story of the real Russian conspiracy to manufacture a false narrative that succeeded in devouring much of the first term of the Trump Administration.

What is emerging in these documents is a political illusion carefully constructed by government officials and a willing media.

The brilliance of the trick was getting reporters to buy into the illusion; to own it like members of an audience called to the stage by an illusionist.

The effort closely followed the three steps of the classic magic trick: The Pledge, The Turn, and The Prestige.

The Pledge

The trick began with the pledge, the stage where the public is set up by showing ordinary events with the suggestion that it is about to transform into something extraordinary. The key is to make something seem real that is actually not.

The Clinton campaign delivered the pledge by secretly funding the Steele dossier, using Fusion GPS and a former British spy named Christopher Steele, to create a salacious account of Trump being an agent of Russia. New emails state that Hillary Clinton personally approved the operation.

It was Elias who was the general counsel to the Clinton presidential campaign when it funded the infamous Steele dossier and pushed the false Alfa Bank conspiracy. (His fellow Perkins Coie partner, Michael Sussmann, was indicted but acquitted in a criminal trial.)

During the campaign, a few reporters asked about the possible connection to the campaign, but Clinton campaign officials denied any involvement in the Steele Dossier. After the election, journalists discovered that the payments for the Steele dossier were hidden as “legal fees” among the $5.6 million paid to Perkins Coie under Elias.

When New York Times reporter Ken Vogel tried to report the story, he said, Elias “pushed back vigorously, saying ‘You (or your sources) are wrong.’” Times reporter Maggie Haberman declared, “Folks involved in funding this lied about it, and with sanctimony, for a year.”

Later, John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, appeared before Congress for questioning on the Steele dossier. Podesta emphatically denied any contractual agreement with Fusion GPS. Sitting beside him was Elias, who reportedly said nothing to correct the misleading information given to Congress.

The FEC ultimately sanctioned the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee over the handling of the funding of the dossier through his prior firm.

The Turn

The next step is the turning point when the ordinary becomes something extraordinary. This required the involvement of the government. The Clinton team worked behind the scenes to feed the dossier to the FBI. It would be the criminal investigation that would transform the ordinary accounts, like Carter Page speaking in Moscow, into an elaborate Russian plot. Even though the FBI was warned early on that Page was a CIA asset, not a Russian asset, the Clinton team found eager officials in the Obama Administration to assist in the illusion.

The newly disclosed evidence shows how the turn was made. In July 2016, Brennan briefed former President Obama on Hillary Clinton’s “plan” to tie then-candidate Trump to Russia as “a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server.” The original Russia investigation — funded by Clinton’s campaign — was launched days after this briefing.

Months later, it would be Brennan who overruled his own CIA analysts in his ordering of a second last-minute assessment at the end of the Obama Administration in support of the Russian allegations. It would help make the turn with the all-consuming Russian investigation that would follow.

Career analysts were not buying the turn. They objected that the reliance on the Steele dossier “ran counter to fundamental tradecraft principles and ultimately undermined the credibility of a key judgment.” One CIA analyst told investigators that “[Brennan] refused to remove it, and when confronted with the dossier’s main flaws, [Brennan] responded, ‘Yes, but doesn’t it ring true?’”

That is the key to the turn; it needs only to be enough to fool the audience.

The Prestige

The final stage is called the Prestige, where the magician faces the toughest part of the trick. As explained in the 2006 movie “The Prestige,” the viewer is “looking for the secret… but you won’t find it, because of course you’re not really looking. You don’t really want to know. You want to be fooled.” However, “making something disappear isn’t enough; you have to bring it back.”

The difference is that this trick was designed to derail Trump and it worked. In the end, however, the Special Counsel and Inspector General both rejected the Russian collusion claims. The public then reelected Trump. Now, the prestige may be revealed by the CIA.

Reports indicate that the CIA is about to declassify material showing that foreign sources were also in on the trick. The information reportedly indicates that foreign sources were aware of the move to create a Russian collusion scandal and expected that the FBI would play a role in the plan. That was before the bureau launched its controversial Crossfire Hurricane probe. One source said the foreign intelligence predicted the move “with alarming specificity.”

The most recently declassified material shows that the Russian actors in 2016 hacked emails from the Open Society Foundations, formerly known as the Soros Foundation. The emails reveal a broader network of activists and allies who were aware of the Clinton conspiracy.

Leonard Bernardo, who was the regional director for Eurasia at the Open Society Foundations, explained that “during the first stage of the campaign, due to lack of direct evidence, it was decided to disseminate the necessary information through the FBI-affiliated…from where the information would then be disseminated through leading U.S. publications.”

Bernardo added, “Julie (Clinton Campaign Advisor) says it will be a long-term affair to demonize Putin and Trump. Now it is good for a post-convention bounce. Later, the FBI will put more oil into the fire.”

The media (including the Washington Post and New York Times, which won Pulitzer prizes for reporting on the debunked claims) are apoplectic in dismissing these disclosures. The last thing they will do is report on how they helped sell a political hoax. The problem is that they never said it was a trick. They said it was the truth. That is why they cannot honestly cover the story. To do so would not be coverage, it would be a confession.

It appears that everyone was in on the trick: the U.S. government, the media, even foreign governments. The only chumps were the American people. Now they are about to see how it was done.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 13:40

Boeing's Fighter Jet Plants At Risk Of Strike If Union Rejects Modified Labor Deal 

Boeing's Fighter Jet Plants At Risk Of Strike If Union Rejects Modified Labor Deal 

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 837, representing 3,200 Boeing defense workers across Missouri and Illinois and affiliated with the AFL–CIO/CLC, is scheduled to vote Sunday morning on Boeing's revised labor contract offer. The two sides remain in a federally mandated "cooling-off" period. If union members reject the offer, a strike will begin as early as Monday, potentially disrupting fighter jet production. 

IAM 837 stated that Boeing delivered a revised 4-year contract to 3,200 St. Louis-area factory workers after their earlier rejection and vote to strike. 

The revised contract states: 

  • 20% wage increase (same as rejected offer), raising average pay from $75,000 to $102,600.

  • $5,000 ratification bonus, but only if the deal is approved by 11:59 p.m. on Aug. 3, or the bonus is off the table.

  • Dropped controversial schedule changes (like 3x12 shifts for 4-day weekends) that would've reduced overtime pay.

  • Improved 401(k): Full company match increases paid upfront, not phased in over three years.

Last Sunday, hours after IAM 837 members rejected the contract, Boeing released a statement, saying its labor negotiators were "disappointed" with the union that "voted down the richest contract offer we've ever presented to IAM 837, which addressed all their stated priorities."

Boeing and the union are in a seven-day "cooling-off" period. If the revised labor contract is rejected on Sunday, then this could spark disruptions to the production of key military aircraft and drones, including F-15, F/A-18, T-7A, and MQ-25. 

The last time St. Louis workers went on strike was in 1996, and they don't have a long history of labor activism, unlike Boeing's unions in the Pacific Northwest, noted Melius Research analyst Scott Mikus.

As we asked earlier this week...

One must ask whether foreign adversaries, as part of their hybrid warfare campaign to implode the US from within, have exploited this union in an attempt to strike a critical node in America's defense manufacturing hub.

. . .

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 13:20

Trump Deploys 2 Nuclear Subs After Medvedev's "Foolish, Inflammatory" Statement

Trump Deploys 2 Nuclear Subs After Medvedev's "Foolish, Inflammatory" Statement

The war of words just escalated to something far more ominous...

On Tuesday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued the Kremlin's response to President Trump's Monday announcement from Scotland that he's reducing a deadline for Russia to agree a peace settlement from 50 days to 10 or 12 days, citing 'disappointment' in Putin not ending or at least winding down the war.

Medvedev warned: "Russia isn't Israel or even Iran" and thus that "Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump's) own country."

That followed comments by Medvedev that Trump 'steamrolled, humiliated' Europe with his trade deal.

Then Thursday, Trump told Medvedev to "watch his words"

Image: Sputnik/Reuters

And now, Friday morning, President Trump took to his Truth Social account and escalated from words to actions moving two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” based on “highly provocative” statements from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

“Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances,” Trump says

As we noted earlier, Trump's position, based on his latest remarks, is that the war "should be stopped, It’s a disgrace." And yet the US still appears unwilling to strongly pressure Zelensky to make territorial concessions and to declare Ukraine will never join NATO. Washington also still continues arming Kiev.

These things remain red lines for Russia.

Just lucky that there is no Autonomous AI running the show, then we could be in real trouble?

We anxiously await Medvedev's response (kinetic or otherwise).

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 13:09

Bessent Says Trump Accounts For Kids Are Backdoor 'For Privatizing Social Security'

Bessent Says Trump Accounts For Kids Are Backdoor 'For Privatizing Social Security'

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview this week that the Trump Accounts, which are aimed at helping parents save for their children’s future, are “a back door for privatizing Social Security,” before later clarifying that the administration remains committed to protecting Social Security.

Trump Accounts are tax-advantaged investment vehicles created as part of President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Under the bill, parents can contribute up to $5,000 yearly, while the federal government will contribute $1,000 into the accounts for children born in the United States between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028.

Speaking at a Breitbart policy panel, Bessent said the government seeks to enhance Americans’ financial literacy, particularly through the use of Trump Accounts, although the distribution timeline is still unclear.

“I’m not sure when the distribution level date should be ... But in a way, it is a backdoor for privatizing Social Security,” Bessent said.

“Social Security is a defined benefit plan paid out that, to the extent that if all of a sudden these accounts grow, and you have in the hundreds of thousands of dollars for your retirement, then that’s a game changer too.”

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, which oversees Social Security, criticized Bessent’s remarks and accused the administration of lying about protecting the program.

“This would be a disaster for seniors and for all Americans who will rely on Social Security for a dignified retirement, and it’s a guarantee that Republicans would follow up privatization with brutal cuts that would drive vulnerable people into destitution,” Wyden said in a July 30 statement.

Bessent posted on X later on Wednesday, saying the administration remains committed to protecting Social Security and that the Trump Accounts would “supplement the sanctity of Social Security’s guaranteed payments.”

“This is not an either-or question: our administration is committed to protecting Social Security and to making sure seniors have more money,” he stated.

“This is why President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill gave tax cuts to those receiving these Social Security benefits.”

Social Security is a federal program that provides financial support to individuals who are retired, disabled, or the surviving family members of deceased workers.

A recent report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) states that Social Security recipients could see a 24 percent cut to their monthly payments by late 2032, as trust funds that finance the program are depleted.

The actual size of the Social Security benefit cut would vary based on age, work history, and marital status, the CRFB said, adding that some higher-income couples could see annual payment reductions of around $24,000.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 13:00

Zelensky Calls For Western Allies To Seek 'Regime Change' In Russia

Zelensky Calls For Western Allies To Seek 'Regime Change' In Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly called for Western-supported regime change in Russia, arguing it is the only way to ensure long-term security against "Russian aggression."

He further claimed that if there's not change of government in Moscow, then all of Europe is under threat. The provocative words were issued during a virtual speech marking the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act, or Helsinki Accords.

"If the world doesn’t aim to change the regime in Russia, that means even after the war ends, Moscow will still try to destabilize neighboring countries," Zelensky said, claiming that this will be the case even if Russia is compelled to end the war through a ceasefire.

Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

He also urged the Western allies to seize and not just freeze Russian assets and use them to help defend against Russian forces, through more arms purchases and defense funding. 

This comes after one of the single deadliest Russian strikes on Kiev early Thursday morning, which demolished an apartment building, and left at least 28 dead and over 120 wounded.

In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov once again reiterated that Russia has not threatened the EU and instead accused the bloc of drifting toward what he called a "fourth Reich".

The Kremlin has consistently rejected Western assumptions that its war aims in Ukraine are 'expansionist' in nature, or that nearby NATO states will be invaded.

On the negotiations front, there's been no momentum whatsoever, and even behind-the-scenes efforts of the White House to engage top Russian officials have proven fruitless. President Trump has been turning back toward strongly supporting Ukraine of late.

Russia has signaled willingness to negotiate and has participated in various talks; however it refuses to recognize Zelensky as a legitimate head of state, citing the expiration of his term using the excuse of martial law.

Any future or final peace agreement must be signed by what Russia deems a legitimate Ukrainian authority, at a moment Zelensky has called for direct talks with Putin.

But until Zelensky agrees to territorial concessions, or at the very least giving of claims of sovereignty over Crimea, for example, Putin will see little incentive in any direct dialogue at the negotiating table.

The same could be true of President Trump, who is threatening more sanctions if a peace deal isn't made by August 8. Putin has in response pointed out that Russian ground forces are advancing all across the frontlines in Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 12:40

Trump Admin's Secret Talks With Moscow 'Fruitless' As Putin Boasts Troops Advancing 'Along Entire Frontline'

Trump Admin's Secret Talks With Moscow 'Fruitless' As Putin Boasts Troops Advancing 'Along Entire Frontline'

In Thursday comments President Trump condemned what he called Russia's "disgusting" strikes on the Ukrainian capital from the night prior, which left 28 dead according to the continually rising death toll, after emergency crews have been picking through rubble of a collapsed apartment building.

The Trump administration has also informed the UN Security Council that a deal needs to be reached by August 8, or else new tariffs and sanctions targeting Russia and its trading partners will be unleashed.

"Both Russia and Ukraine must negotiate a ceasefire and durable peace. It is time to make a deal. President Trump has made clear this must be done by August 8. The United States is prepared to implement additional measures to secure peace," US diplomat John Kelley told the UN Security Council, according to Reuters.

US State Dept

Trump is still seeking to distance himself from the conflict, given he's calling it "Biden’s war".

There's apparently been a big push behind the scenes, focused on secret talks, to make something happen with Russia on the peace front, as the NY Times writes:

Mr. Trump’s comments came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged in an interview with Fox News Radio that the administration held secret talks with Russia this week — “not with Putin but with some of Putin’s top people” — and made no progress on a cease-fire. Mr. Trump said he was dispatching his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Russia again, but the last visit that Mr. Witkoff, a fellow real estate investor, paid to Mr. Putin proved fruitless.

Administration officials gave no reasons to believe the latest engagement with Russia would be any more useful. And Mr. Trump himself, usually a true believer in the power of economic sanctions to alter the decisions of foreign leaders, admitted for the second time this week that Mr. Putin appears to be immune.

But then Trump has also conceded that "I don’t know that sanctions bother him" - in reference to Putin and the fact that the Russian economy has been doing relatively well considering the Western-imposed isolation.

It was merely months ago that Trump's top officials, such as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, were in Europe declaring that Ukraine would never be in NATO and even suggesting that ultimately the war is not Moscow's fault, breaking sharply with the Western defense establishment. There was also the Oval Office shouting match with Zelensky, where Vice President JD Vance called out the Ukrainian leader.

NY Times' commentary continues by pointing out a complete 180 in Trump's thinking on Ukraine, further pointing to the fresh Rubio interview:

That has been followed by a series of apparent reversals, with no public acknowledgment from Mr. Trump that he is changing strategy. He no longer relies on what he has framed as a deep past relationship with Mr. Putin in an effort to win him over. In fact, he has been quite open about his frustration that conversations about cease-fires are usually followed by Russian escalation, often in the pace of drone and missile attacks.

“I think what bothers the president the most is he has these great phone calls where everyone sort of claims yeah, we’d like to see this end, if we could find a way forward,” Mr. Rubio said in his Fox interview, “and then he turns on the news and another city has been bombed, including those far from the front lines.”

“So at some point,” Mr. Rubio told his interviewer, Brian Kilmeade of Fox News Radio, “he’s got to make a decision here about what — how much to continue to engage in an effort to do cease-fires if one of the two sides is not interested.”

As if demonstrating his lack of concern over Trump's ultimatum, President Putin has on Friday declared that his troops are advancing along the "entirety of the frontlines".

Putin does not look too worried on Friday...

According to a summary of his fresh remarks:

Russian president Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow’s goals in Ukraine remained unchanged and claimed that Russian troops are advancing “along entire frontline” in Ukraine.

In comments reported by Reuters, Putin also said that the new deadly Oreshnik missile system is now being mass produced, with first deliveries already made to the army. At the same time, he said he hoped peace talks between Russia and Ukraine would continue, but warned against inflated expectations as to what can be realistically achieved.

He also insisted that the issue of the war would need to be addressed “in the context of European security as a whole,” which in the past was linked to his expansive security demands relating to large parts of central and eastern Europe.

Trump's position, based on his latest remarks, is that the war "should be stopped, It’s a disgrace." And yet the US still appears unwilling to strongly pressure Zelensky to make territorial concessions and to declare Ukraine will never join NATO. Washington also still continues arming Kiev. These things remain red lines for Russia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 12:35

Debasement: What It Is And Isn't...

Debasement: What It Is And Isn't...

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Over the past year, financial headlines continue to flood investors with doomsday predictions about the U.S. dollar.

Whether it’s social media influencers waving “dollar collapse” charts or YouTube personalities warning about debasement, the noise has become deafening. The narrative is seductive: inflation is out of control, the government is printing money, and the dollar is on its last legs. But while there are real risks to watch, most headlines sell fear, not fact.

The 90% Purchasing Power Chart: Misleading but Popular

One of the favorite charts used to make the “debasement” case is the classic graph showing that the U.S. dollar has lost 90% of its purchasing power since 1966.

It’s striking, and those selling gold, silver, or other doomsday assets often use it. But here’s the thing: that chart doesn’t show debasement. It only reflects inflation, a well-understood and largely expected outcome in a growing economy.

Prices rise over time because demand increases due to population growth, rising incomes, and growing consumption. This is especially true in a post-industrial, service-driven economy that incentivizes credit expansion and capital investment. As we often say, it’s not the dollar losing value; it’s the economy expanding.

Let’s discuss what “debasement” is and is not as it relates to the economy.

Understanding Inflation vs. Debasement

Let’s start by untangling two often-confused concepts: inflation and currency debasement. While both reduce the purchasing power of a dollar, they operate differently.

Inflation is the rise in prices due to supply and demand imbalances. Rising wages and consumer demand for products and services that grow faster than the available supply create higher prices (aka inflation). The chart below is from a previous article we wrote discussing why the economy surged following the pandemic-related economic shutdown.

“The following economic illustration is taught in every ‘Econ 101’ class. Unsurprisingly, inflation is the consequence if supply is restricted and demand increases via monetary interventions.”

Conversely, debasement implies a structural dilution of a currency’s value. This is vastly different than inflation. In a “debasement” scenario, governments take conscious actions to reduce the “structure” of the currency. In Rome, for example, the government reduced the amount of silver in minting coins to increase the number of coins produced to pay its creditors. However, debasement is not a reality in a fiat system like ours, where the linkage to gold or silver is nonexistent. In other words, when the government is “printing paper,” it is impossible to dilute the “structure.”

However, the term has become “co-opted” by the bears and fear mongers as a psychological representation of perception and confidence in the dollar. But that is what makes this discussion so interesting. While the “debasement experts” point to record stimulus, growing deficits, and expanding M2 over the last few years, confidence in the dollar remains intact—not just among U.S. consumers and investors but globally.

As shown, the U.S. dollar index remains strong. Most notably, the bigger picture reveals a more resilient and globally dominant currency than many alarmists will admit. The U.S. dollar is still at the center of 80% of global transactions, and nearly 60% of all global reserves. The “debasement” argument is at best premature, and at worst, deeply misleading.

But what about that dollar purchasing power chart above?

That chart is not about “debasement,” as shown; it is just a measure of inflation caused by a growing U.S. population and increasing economic demand over time.

What M2 Growth Tells Us

“No Lance, the dollar purchasing power is going down, because we are printing too much money.”

That would be a fair statement if the Government were increasing the money supply faster than the economic growth rate. In such a case, the surge in the money supply would cause inflation.

We did witness such an event, as the surge in M2 during the pandemic era was unprecedented. During 2020 and 2021, the Government added over $6 trillion to the money supply. But let’s not forget the context: the world was undergoing the most severe economic shock since the Great Depression. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve stepped in forcefully to stabilize the economic and financial system—and it worked. The consequence was, as would be expected, and as shown in the chart above, a shift in the “supply/demand” equation, creating higher prices. However, at the same time, that surge in demand that outstripped supply led to a massive surge in economic growth, sending unemployment to near record lows. That outcome would not have occurred without the increase in the money supply.

But therein lies the misunderstanding. It’s easy to point to M2 charts and scream “debasement. “ However, the money supply must grow as the economy grows. If it doesn’t, deflationary risks emerge. Therefore, the key is whether money creation exceeds economic growth in a sustained way. Since 1959, the money supply has grown in alignment with economic growth.

A better way to assess this is by comparing M2 to GDP. Historically, the two have tracked closely. Even during the COVID shock, M2 as a percentage of GDP remained below 100%, meaning money supply growth was broadly aligned with economic output. Today, that ratio is falling, not rising.

The reality is, as you would expect, that the growth rates of M2 and the economy are highly correlated.

If the dollar were truly being debased, you’d see a very different set of outcomes:

  • Capital fleeing U.S. assets (stocks, bonds, gold, cryptocurrencies)

  • A collapse in Treasury demand.

  • A breakdown in global trade settled in dollars.

Instead, we see the opposite. Treasury demand remains robust. The dollar is still used in 80% of global transactions and represents nearly 60% of international reserves. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investors continue to hold and accumulate U.S. assets.

So, while media pundits scream about a “loss of trust,” global capital continues to support the dollar.

The Dollar’s Death Is Greatly Exaggerated

Every few decades, someone proclaims the end of the dollar. In the 1980s, it was Japan. In the 2000s, it was the Euro. Today, it’s China or crypto. Yet none of these alternatives have been able to replicate what the dollar provides: deep capital markets, rule of law, and the economic and military reach of the United States.

The dollar remains the cleanest dirty shirt in the global laundry basket. That’s not to say it’s perfect, but perfection isn’t the benchmark. Trust, liquidity, and legal protections are. Furthermore, gold, often touted as the “real money” alternative, is traded and valued in dollars.

In reality, “debasement” isn’t the issue that investors should pay attention to. However, “inflation“ over time erodes the purchasing power of dollars. As such, investors must ensure their “savings” grow at the inflation rate over time. That means investing your savings in assets that grow faster than the inflation rate over the long term. We discussed this topic in “Conviction and How to Lose a Lot of Money.”

“As an example, let’s consider a high-end men’s suit. In 1900, the average price of a high-end men’s suit was around $35. Today, the average price of a high-end suit is around $2,000.

Looking at it another way, if you had stuffed $41.34 under your mattress in 1900, today you might be able to buy a couple of Polo shirts if you find a deal. But if you had bought two 1-ounce gold coins and stuffed those under your mattress in 1900, today you’d be able to buy a fancy suit and have about $1,600 left over.“ – Michael Maharrey

He is correct in his math. However, the same investment in the stock (price appreciation only since gold doesn’t pay a dividend) allowed an individual to buy 15 suits with money left over.

Yes, gold has been a good hedge against inflation over the long term. Investing in the stock market has been much better.

So why do dollar debasement stories get so much attention? Because fear sells. Human psychology is wired to respond more strongly to threats than to opportunities. This “negativity bias” helps explain why bearish content generates more clicks, listens, and views. It’s not that the content is wrong, but it’s often disproportionately amplified.

Unfortunately, many investors confuse loud narratives with likely outcomes.

For investors, the key takeaway is to separate noise from narrative. While inflation, fiscal deficits, and policy missteps are worth our concern, the U.S. dollar remains the backbone of the global financial system, not because it’s flawless, but because there is still no viable alternative.

Again, “debasement” isn’t the concern it is being made out to be.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 12:20

UMich Sentiment Hits 5-Month High As Inflation Expectations Plunge

UMich Sentiment Hits 5-Month High As Inflation Expectations Plunge

US consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in July on optimism about current conditions tied to a stock-market rally, while inflation expectations eased further.

The survey showed the current conditions gauge rose to a six-month high of 68, while the expectations index slipped to 57.7...

Source: Bloomberg

“A rise in sentiment among stock holders was partially offset by a decline among consumers who do not own stocks,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

Most notably, inflation expectations plunged. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.4% over the next five to 10 years, the tamest since January, data released Friday showed. They saw costs rising at an annual rate of 4.5% over the coming year, down from 5% in June...

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats and Independents appear to be coming around to reality as their inflation fears subside somewhat...

Source: Bloomberg

But, consumers in the Michigan survey were also skeptical that the risk of faster inflation has passed...

“Meanwhile, expectations remain poor for business conditions and elevated for unemployment; critically, consumers anticipate they may be personally affected,” Hsu said.

“Despite recent improvements, this combination of views is consistent with a slowdown in spending, as consumers may respond to these risks with more cautious financial behavior.”

It seems Ms. Hsu really doesn't like this rebound.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 10:16

Surveys Signal Manufacturing Contraction In July, But...

Surveys Signal Manufacturing Contraction In July, But...

'Hard' data has disappointed in recent weeks (most notably today's payrolls miss) and while soft data overall has been rising, today's Manufacturing surveys were expected to show deterioration (after a rebound from April lows).

  • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.9 to 49.8 (final) in July (back below 50 for the first time since December). The final print is slightly higher than the flash print of 49.5.

  • ISM US Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.0 to 48.0 (worse than the increase to 49.5 expected). That is the weakest since Oct 2024.

So both surveys are in contraction/recession...

Source: Bloomberg

The Employment component confirms this morning's payrolls weakness, New Orders remain in contraction, but the silver lining is that fears of inflation are falling...

“July saw the first deterioration of manufacturing operating conditions since last December as tariff worries continued to dominate the business environment," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“The downturn at the start of the third quarter in part reflects the passing of a busy period of tariff-related inventory accumulation in prior months.

Factories reported little change in inflows of new orders and reduced stock holdings of both raw materials and finished goods in July.

This comes after companies had built up inventories in May and June amid concerns over higher import prices and worsening supply availability resulting from tariff hikes.

But there is a silver lining in inflation data...

“Input prices continued to rise at a steep rate, with these higher costs often being passed on to customers to drive another month of elevated selling price inflation, but there are signs that these price pressures may have peaked back in June.

Finally, Williamson notes that “optimism about the year ahead has meanwhile taken a knock as factories worry about reduced demand from customers, especially in export markets, and the inflationary impact of tariffs."

"Employment consequently fell as factories trimmed headcounts amid concerns over rising costs and lower sales.”

Today's 'hard' data decline left 'soft' data to lead

Is the hard data weakness (and sub-50 PMI) enough to push Powell to finally cut?

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 10:07

Jobs Shocker: July Payrolls Far Below Estimates, Follow Massive Revisions Lower

Jobs Shocker: July Payrolls Far Below Estimates, Follow Massive Revisions Lower

Heading into today's jobs report, sentiment had seen a surprising boost in recent days, with the whisper number rising from just about 110K back to 125K, or where it started the month of July.

Well, the optimism proved to be very, very wrong, because moments ago the BLS reported job numbers that were very ugly with July printing just 73K, far below the 104K estimate.

But that's not the real punchline: what is, is that Trump not only took a page out of the Biden playbook, but ripped pretty much all of it out with May and June revised massively lower, to wit:

  • May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000,
  • June was revised  down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.

With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported, which puts to shame any/all of the far smaller revisions that defined much of the Biden regime. 

Blackrock PM Jeff Rosenberg told Bloomberg TV that the big news today is the revisions, and the main takeaway is that it raises the odds of a rate cut in September.

The number of jobs came in below the 80-100k breakeven level estimated by Fedʼs Barkin, suggesting Trump may have literally instructed the BLS to print a number that basically forces Powell's hand to cut.

The number was even uglier in the Household survey, which showed a drop of 260K workers in July, the 3rd biggest monthly drop of 2025.

And with that the gaping disconnect between the two series is back with a vengeance.

Going down the report, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, as expected, which may be the only silver lining in today's report as the Fed is now more focused on the unemp rate (according to Powell) than the number of jobs actually added.

Of note here is that the unemployment rate for Black workers was highest since October 2021.

The labor force participation rate, at 62.2%, dropped slightly in July from 62.3%, and has declined by 0.5% point over the year. It was the lowest since November 2022. The employment-population ratio, at 59.6%, also changed little over the month but was down by 0.4% over the year.

Turning to wages, we find that hourly earnings actually rose from an upward revised 3.8% (was 3.7%) to 3.9%, above the 3.8% expected.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $36.44 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have  increased by 3.9 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.34. 

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in July. In manufacturing, the average workweek held at 40.1 hours, and overtime edged  down to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours in July. 

Some more details from the report:

  • The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in July. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time  because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
  • The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little in July at  6.2 million but was up by 568,000 over the year. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were  unavailable to take a job. 
  • Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in July. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers decreased by 212,000 in July to 425,000, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them. 

Turning to the composition of the report, the BLS reports that employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs. 

  • In July, health care added 55,000 jobs, above the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+34,000) and  hospitals (+16,000).
  • Social assistance employment continued to trend up in July (+18,000), reflecting continued job growth in individual and family services (+21,000). 
  • Federal government employment continued to decline in July (-12,000) and is down by 84,000 since reaching a peak in January. 
  • Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining,  quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail  trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and  business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Of the above the most notable perhaps is that Federal workers declined by 12K, this was the 6th straight drop in a row.

There was more ugliness: looking beneath the surface we find that the number of full-time jobs tumbled 440K to 134.837 million, while part-time jobs surged by 237K to 28.437 million.

Here is the total number of FT and PT jobs.

One very interesting twist is that the number of native-born workers actually jumped by 383K in July, following the 830K increase in June. Meanwhile, foreign-born workers tumbled for the 4th month in a row, plunging by 467K in July. As such one can argue that much of today's jobs report was a consequence of the purge of illegal aliens from the labor market.

The numbers were so ugly, they effectively put a 25bps rate cut in Sept front and center... maybe even 50bps. Sure enough, bond yields from the two-year through seven-years are lower by at least 10 basis points as the market sniffs out a Fed being late to cut. 

“We would look for the Fed to begin lowering rates in September,” says Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities.  “It’s somewhat amazing how you can have a sitting Fed Chair intimate the strength in labor one day and receive these numbers a few days later.”

Commenting on the numbers, Bloomberg's chief Economist Anna Wong wrote:

“July’s nonfarm payrolls were surprisingly weak, but the biggest shock was the massive revision to past data, which reduced gains for the past two months from solid to nearly zero. Adjusted for potential overstatement from the BLS’ ‘birth-death’ model, underlying job gains in July were also about flat.

“The unemployment rate, which Fed Chair Powell said earlier this week is the ‘main number’ to watch, also edged up, even as the labor force shrank for a third straight month. The main takeaway from the jobs report is that labor demand appears to be falling faster than labor supply – the labor market is not ‘solid,’ as Powell characterized it earlier this year, and we expect him to revise his opinion accordingly. We see growing chances of an earlier rate cut than our December base case.”

And here is B. Riley Wealth chief market strategist, Art Hogan,  

“Today’s jobs report is unambiguously soft and a reflection of the trade and tariff impact on economic growth. Both the actual report and the big negative revisions are more evidence that the trade policy will slow growth. What we know about our workforce population growth is that we need to create between 100 and 150,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate unchanged. That is down from a range of 150 to 200,000 last year due to less immigration. The three-month average coming to today’s report was 150,000. The new three-month average of job creation is now 80,000. Not great news.”

All good points, but what really happened is that Trump finally figured out what we said last December, namely that if he wants the Fed to cut quick, he needs a labor market emergency. 

Well, he finally got it. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 09:40

Trump To Get On With Bitcoin Reserve "In Short Order" - Bo Hines

Trump To Get On With Bitcoin Reserve "In Short Order" - Bo Hines

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

US President Donald Trump’s crypto liaison has confirmed that the administration is still keen on a strategic Bitcoin reserve, despite only briefly being mentioned in a recently published crypto policy report.

“We do believe in accumulation,” said Robert “Bo” Hines, the executive director of the US President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, said in an interview on Crypto in America on Wednesday, when asked about the US strategic Bitcoin reserve.

“We have it, it’s been established [...] we also have the strategic national digital assets stockpile,” he said, adding that Bitcoin is in “a class of its own and everyone recognizes that.”

He also said that the administration wants to “give credence” to the work and developments happening across other ecosystems, but did not mention any other digital assets or platforms. 

Hines said that building the infrastructure takes time and labor to ensure it’s done the right way and has long-term success, and there are “countless ways” that we can accumulate.

“I think that people will be very pleased with the direction that we are going, and we’ll start moving on that in short order,” he said.

Bo Hines talks about strategic Bitcoin reserves. Source: Crypto in America

Bitcoin reserve briefly mentioned White House report 

The President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets released recommendations to “strengthen American leadership in digital Financial Technology” on Wednesday, with only a short mention of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Hines said that the priorities and focus, as outlined in the report, were to create a clear and robust regulatory framework.

“We understand the importance of the strategic Bitcoin reserve, we’re enormous fans of Bitcoin and the Bitcoin community, we want to deliver for them as well, and I’m certain that we will.” 
We want as much BTC as we can possibly get

When asked how much Bitcoin the federal government has, Hines said, “I can’t discuss that right now.”

“There are several reasons we’re not disclosing that right now, there might be a time when we do, but I will say we want as much as we can possibly get [...] and we’re going to continue to work on that.”

The US government holds an estimated 198,000 BTC worth around $2.35 billion, according to Nansen.

President Trump signed the executive order officially establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile in March. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 09:35

'Fade The Post-Payrolls Rally In The Long-End Of Bond Yields'

'Fade The Post-Payrolls Rally In The Long-End Of Bond Yields'

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

The headline establishment survey was 73k, which looks not so great at first blush, but unfortunately, is one of the better numbers in the entire report. 

Only 1 economist surveyed by Bloomberg had a number lower than the actual.

As bearish on jobs as some of the rest of this analysis may sound, I suspect that we overstated job growth the prior months and are entering the time of year where we underestimate it, but we are all stuck living with the official data.

Not that I’m bitter, but last month’s headline number was revised down from 147k to 14k. Only bitter as we were expecting weak data last month and then didn’t get it, only to find a month later, we were probably right. How can businesses make decisions with such bizarrely inaccurate data? In this day and age of AI, electronic data, there has to be a way to get “better” as in “more accurate” data, rather than coping with “garbage in, garbage out”.

Total two month revisions were -258k.

The birth/death model, which we see as fraught with issues, miscalculations based on a legacy economy that doesn’t exist any longer, added 257k jobs (I think that is unadjusted and maybe the full amount doesn’t get passed into the final number but it disturbs me that a total of only 73k incorporates a significant boost from this calculation).

Manufacturing lost jobs in each of the last two months, though if tariffs are going to work to bring manufacturing back, it will take time (I remain skeptical of how much of a resurgence in manufacturing employment of humans we will get via tariff policy).

Government shrank a bit, after some weird seasonals pushed them higher initially last month (who knows where they are after revisions). That should get worse as we move into September and we see the impact of DOGE (most doge’d employees are still counted as employed since they are still receiving their salary).

The unemployment rate only inched higher to 4.2% - a bright spot on the surface. But that was with the labor rate declining to 62.2% (the lowest participation rate since 2022). The underemployment rate (potentially a precursor to further labor issues) moved up 0.2% to 7.9%. Not a horrible number in its own right, but the trend is not good (and fits our view that the low QUITS rate as reported by JOLTs tells us labor is concerned about their ability to get a job).

The Household Data, used for the unemployment rate had -260k jobs lost. Without the lower participation rate, unemployment rate would be higher. That brings the 3 month total for this measure to -863K total.

The Fed should take notice and cut – they should have gone this month and I’m still in the 3-4 cut for the year camp (which looks less ridiculous today than it did a few weeks ago).

Treasuries are rallying across the curve, which makes sense, though I’d be fading the long end with 10’s back to 4.27%.

One reason for that bearishness on longer term yields at these levels is the Fed might be forced to cut even as inflation pressure from tariffs trickle in.

Also, and somewhat contradictory, there is the potential that the court system will invalidate the existing tariffs. That money may have to be refunded (there is supposedly a market to trade potential tariff refunds – Wall Street will trade anything  ). If we see lower tariffs and refunds on tariffs already paid, we could see pressure on bond yields, because while we don’t think the market has been giving enough benefit to tariff revenue, it has given some benefit. With appeals, injunctions, etc., we are some ways a way from the final decision, but we could see some noise around existing tariffs.

It is far from clear where the trade deals announced (often with great fanfare and little detail) will stand in the wake of any court decisions forcing the administration to use new or different avenues to impose tariffs. Companies that benefitted the most or were hurt the most by trade deals could see some reversals in their price action as well.

Bottom Line

Fade the rally in the long end of bond yields.

Be cautious on equities, and look for some reversals of recent trends between the outperformers and the laggards (the Russell 2000 is down year to date, and I’m not sure it is time to commit overweight here, but it is getting tempting).

Tariffs will be interesting as we see reaction (and potentially more deals) based on the tariff rates being set. At the same time, the court rulings could play a major role.

Finally, we continue to look to National Production for National Security and DEREGULATION to help some sectors do very well in the coming weeks and months!

Good luck and I do wish we had accurate data last month, imagine what the Fed might have done at the meeting if they knew jobs were punk last month and not some illusory surprise to the upside 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 09:20

'Too Little Too Late' - Trump Rages Amid The Post-Payrolls Carnage...

'Too Little Too Late' - Trump Rages Amid The Post-Payrolls Carnage...

Weaker than expected job gains combined with rising unemployment rates and massively negative revisions have sent rate-cut odds soaring with September now priced around 75%...

2025 cut expectations are now back above 50bps (and 2026 is fading modestly)...

This has helped smash Treasury yields lower with the short-end leading (down a stunning 18bps)...

And the dollar is puking...

Gold is mirroring the dollar weakness and soaring higher...

Stocks are lower post-payrolls but were notably weaker already on the heels of tariffs and AMZN disappointment...

So, circling back to the start, is this 'bad news' from the labor market, good news for Trump as it forces The Fed's hand sooner rather than later?

Time for an emergency cut?

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 08:56

Trump's Global Tariff Breakdown: Full Country-By-Country Rate List

Trump's Global Tariff Breakdown: Full Country-By-Country Rate List

Four months after President Trump stunned the world and rattled global markets by unveiling "Liberation Day" tariff rates, his latest revisions (read here), announced Thursday, and set to go into effect in a week, sparked fresh global equity futures selling early Friday morning. With an average tariff rate of 15%, the world now faces the highest US levies since the Great Depression days of the 1930s, and these rates are roughly six times higher than one year ago and will certaintly lead to further rejiggering of supply chains. 

The new tariff rates are set to take effect in just seven days, starting at 12:01 a.m. ET. A baseline 10% tariff will apply to imports from most countries. 

Here's what you need to know: 

  • 10% Global Minimum Tariff imposed across all imports.

  • Canada: Tariff raised to 35% (from 25%), but goods under USMCA remain exempt.

  • Switzerland: Tariff increased to 39% (from 31%); Swiss officials criticize the change, citing divergence from prior draft terms.

  • 40 Countries: Imports face a 15% tariff.

  • 12+ Economies: Hit with even higher duties.

  • China & Mexico: Deadline delayed by 90 days.

The list:

The multi-month wave of tariff threats sparked front-loading of exports, supporting many Asian economies and shielding US consumers from price spikes. However, that could all change...

Commenting on this is Raghuram Rajan, former India central bank governor and chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who is now a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, told Bloomberg TV earlier today, "For the rest of the world, this is a serious demand shock," adding, "You will see a lot of central banks contemplating cutting as the rest of the world slows." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 07:20

Standard Chartered Sees Higher Long-Term Oil Prices As Shale Costs Rise

Standard Chartered Sees Higher Long-Term Oil Prices As Shale Costs Rise

Oil prices are set to trend higher in the coming years, according to Standard Chartered, as the economics of U.S. shale have shifted significantly, according to OilPrice.com.

While crude has hovered near $70/bbl — close to the 20-year average of $73.38 — StanChart notes that breakeven costs in the shale patch have climbed sharply. “The average breakeven price for Permian producers is now edging back toward the mid-$60s, up from the mid-$50s just two years ago,” the bank said, attributing the rise to higher costs for steel, labor, and frac materials, in part due to U.S. tariffs.

Analysts at Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie share the view that today’s oil prices are unsustainably low for shale. Rystad estimates breakeven prices for new horizontal wells in key plays near $68/bbl, while WoodMac warns that without a firmer price floor, “the rig count will absolutely fall.” Both firms point to tight capital budgets, cautious reinvestment, and a continued investor focus on returns rather than growth.

OilPrice.com reports that the outlook comes as crude prices hit six-week highs. Brent crude for September rose 1.2% to $73.34/bbl, while WTI gained 1.5% to $70.24, driven by geopolitics and trade developments. President Trump extended his deadline for Russia to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine to Aug. 3 from July 14, warning of additional sanctions and tariffs if talks fail. “The new deadline caught many analysts by surprise and, if enforced, could tighten Russian crude and fuel supplies to the global market,” BOK Financial Securities said.

Oil prices also found support from a U.S.-EU trade agreement that avoided escalation into a full trade war. Under the deal, EU exports to the U.S. will face tariffs capped at 15%, providing relief to markets worried about a broader slowdown in trade.

Still, gains were tempered by a surprise U.S. crude stock build. The Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude inventories rose 7.7 million barrels in the week ending July 25 to 426.7 million barrels. While stocks remain 6% below the five-year seasonal average, the weekly jump was far larger than the 1.54 million-barrel increase reported earlier by the American Petroleum Institute, catching traders off guard.

Meanwhile, U.S. drilling activity continues to contract. The Baker Hughes rig count shows oil rigs falling for the 13th consecutive week to a 46-month low of 415, down 68 rigs year-to-date. Texas saw the steepest declines, with drilling in the Eagle Ford formation down five rigs to 34, while Permian activity slipped in both the Delaware and Midland basins.

Bloomberg reports separately that fracking activity in the Permian Basin is slowing faster than expected as tariff uncertainty and rising OPEC+ production weigh on demand. ProPetro Holding CEO Sam Sledge said only about 70 frack crews remain active in the world’s top shale region, down from roughly 100 earlier this year.

“The completions market in the Permian Basin continues to face challenges,” Sledge told analysts, citing idle capacity driven by weaker market conditions. ProPetro shares fell as much as 21% after a surprise second-quarter loss, with the company now planning 10–11 crews this quarter and potential cuts ahead.

The forecast echoes Halliburton, which said last week it will sideline equipment amid worsening U.S. shale conditions.

With U.S. output under pressure and global geopolitical risks mounting, Standard Chartered’s bullish view reflects a tightening supply picture. Many analysts see sustained prices above current levels as essential to stabilize U.S. production — a dynamic that may be shaping the Trump administration’s increasingly hard stance on Russia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 06:55

Zelensky Says He Discussed New 'Large-Scale' Arms Deal With Trump

Zelensky Says He Discussed New 'Large-Scale' Arms Deal With Trump

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Wednesday night address said Kiev is on the brink of another major arms agreement with the US. He described he presented President Donald Trump with Ukraine's "main principles" for future weapons deals, but without specifying whether Trump has agreed to the terms.

"Today, I also agreed on the main principles of our agreements with America, Ukraine – the United States, on arms," Zelensky stated. "Large-scale agreements, I talked about them with President Trump, and I very, very much hope that we will be able to implement all of this. This will definitely strengthen both of our countries, and therefore – our allies, our partners."

Via Reuters

While it was just last week that the Trump administration approved a series of arms sales to Ukraine totaling $650 million, it remains unclear if these are the same "large-scale" deals discussed by Zelensky.

The Ukrainian leader hailed all of this as part of the right direction and necessary step toward ending the war. "Right now we need to act to force Russia to peace. Yes, Moscow wants to continue fighting. But the whole issue is in the potential, the whole issue is in the resources for war, in money. That is why sanctions are useful. That is why pressure can work," he said.

Trump also last week proclaimed the landmark Washington and the EU deal under which the bloc would pay "100% of the cost of all military equipment" provided by the US. 

"They’re going to ship it to the European Union, and then they'll distribute it, and much of it will go to Ukraine," he had stated.

And concerning all the latest talk about air defenses, the EU will also pay for any US-made Patriot air defense systems which are shipped - or rather forcibly donated from European countries for Ukraine. Trump has openly boasted that "this will be a business for us."

Politico reported earlier this week that multiple EU member states are requesting tens of billions of dollars in loans from the European Union to fund weapons purchases for Ukraine.

All of this is within the context of Trump growing frustrated at lack of peace progress, and he has increasingly laid blame squarely on Putin and Russia, this week giving Moscow just ten days to come to the negotiating table and reach a peace agreement, or else face far-reaching new sanctions, particularly secondary sanctions punishing trade partners continuing to do business with Russia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 05:45

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