"Blatant Fraud": USCIS Operation Uncovers Fraud In 44% Of Pending Immigration Cases In Minneapolis

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), working with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the FBI, has announced the results of Operation Twin Shield, a large-scale fraud detection effort conducted across Minneapolis-St. Paul from September 19 to 28. Minneapolis is home to one of the largest Somali communities in the U.S., reflected in the election of Ilhan Omar, a Somali-American who became the first refugee and one of the first Muslim women elected to Congress.

The operation marked the first targeted surge of its kind, with immigration officers investigating more than 1,000 pending cases flagged for fraud or ineligibility concerns, according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration.  USCIS said officers carried out over 900 site visits and interviews, uncovering fraud, non-compliance, or security issues in 275 cases—about 44 percent of those reviewed.

As of now, USCIS has issued Notices to Appear or referred 42 cases to ICE, with four individuals taken into custody. The agency expects those numbers to increase as administrative investigations are completed. The effort focused on marriage and family-based petitions, employment authorizations, and certain parole requests, in line with Executive Order 14161, which emphasizes protecting the United States from terrorist, national security, and public safety threats.

USCIS announced in a release this week that officials said the operation exposed a wide range of schemes. In one case, a man admitted to paying $100 for a falsified Kenyan death certificate to claim a marriage had ended; his spouse, still alive and living in Minneapolis with their five children, was very much present.

Another case involved the son of a known or suspected terrorist who overstayed his visa and had previously been denied multiple immigration benefits for marriage fraud. A petitioner confessed to marriage fraud only hours after swearing during a USCIS interview that her marriage was genuine. In yet another case, an immigrant manipulated an elderly U.S. citizen spouse in a fraudulent marriage that also involved elder abuse.

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“USCIS is declaring an all-out war on immigration fraud. We will relentlessly pursue everyone involved in undermining the integrity of our immigration system and laws. With help from ICE and the FBI, USCIS’ Operation Twin Shield was a tremendous success—hundreds of bad actors will be held accountable,” said USCIS Director Joseph B. Edlow.

“Immigration fraud undermines the integrity of our lawful immigration system, harms those who follow the law, and poses risks to national security and public safety. Under President Trump, we will leave no stone unturned.”

According to USCIS, this is the first time the agency has deployed resources at this scale in one geographic region. Officials emphasized that, unlike during the Biden administration, immigration officers are now empowered to thoroughly vet applicants as required by law and to pursue immigration fraud wherever it is encountered.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 16:50

Generals Gathered In Their Masses…

Authored by Daniel McAdams via The Ron Paul Institute,

On Tuesday we observed one of the strangest spectacles of our time. President Trump and his "Secretary of War," Pete Hegseth, called a mandatory meeting of all the top brass in the US military. Some 800+ general officers, admirals, and the like gathered at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia for a doubleheader talk from Hegseth and Trump.

Because such an event is nearly unprecedented – at least in peacetime – the days leading up to the meeting were increasingly filled with speculation and even dread.

Tensions between the US and Russia are soaring over reports that the Trump Administration may provide and assist in the launching of Tomahawk missiles – capable of both hitting Moscow and of carrying nuclear weapons. The Putin Administration pointed out the obvious: such weapons would require the active participation of US intelligence as well as trained US or NATO personnel and should they be used would bring Russia and the US/NATO to a state of war. It is a war that, given both US and Russian nuclear doctrine, could very quickly rise to the level of an exchange of nuclear weapons and total destruction.

Likewise, media reports and observers of the movement of military equipment have been raising a red flag over the past several days on the massive movement of US fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers from the US toward the Middle East. Observers point out the similarity to the days leading up to the US attack on Iran in late June, just over three months ago. With Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu in town earlier this week, has President Trump been talked into again joining Israel in its war on its neighbors?

Additionally, US warships have been gathered off the coast of Venezuela for weeks and at least three speedboats accused of running narcotics have been blown out of the water by the US military. The New York Times reported on stepped up US efforts to overthrow the Venezuelan government and install a new leader (as the Trump team attempted and failed in his first term). Media outlets are reporting that the Trump Administration is even considering military strikes deep inside Venezuela, which would of course be unprovoked acts of war.

What to expect of the gathering of the generals? Many of us waited at the edge of our seats.

What we were able to see was a pair of not particularly well-prepared – and less well-received – speeches by Trump and Hegseth on transforming the US military into a “MAGA” force and the evils of late middle-aged rotundity among senior military personnel. The crass treatment of America’s tip military officers – whether some deserved criticism or not – will likely have an effect opposite of what was intended.

The pauses in the pre-prepared speeches meant to allow for applause were met with stony silence.

Fat-shaming and chest-pounding is not the way to go about building esprit de corps in the US military. Especially when such a dressing-down was broadcast to the rest of the country via live video hook-up.

But what if some of our initial sense of dread was not misplaced? In his essential Sonar21 blog, former CIA officer Larry Johnson wonders whether there was a (very) public message delivered to conceal a secret and more dangerous message.

First Johnson quotes Yves Smith of the Naked Capitalist blog:

After Charlie Kirk, perhaps I have become too fond of complicated theories.

But it’s ludicrous to have called so many senior guys in for such a silly agenda. A stern memo and/or video sessions would have done. 

So the big stoopid meeting, IMHO was to cover for a smaller gathering that had to be done in person. And where whoever was summoned would be a big tell as to what the focus was.

Johnson then signals his agreement with the speculation:

No, Yves… I think you nailed it. Besides the massive US naval force parked off the coast of Venezuela, we are now hearing that US tanker aircraft are flying to the Middle East via England. We saw the same phenomena in the days preceding the June 24 attack on Iran.

If the Trump administration is planning a coordinated attack on Venezuela and Iran, the commanders of USCENTCOM and USSOUTHCOM would be involved. While the plans for such attacks could have been discussed over a SVTCS (i.e., Secure Video Teleconferences), those sessions usually have dozens of straphangers watching. If you want to keep close hold on such planning, you do it in person. If the CENTCOM and SOUTHCOM commanders had been called to Washington alone, the odds are high that someone would have reported this. With the presence of the US naval force off the coast of Venezuela and the movement of US aircraft towards the Persian Gulf, this likely would have attracted unwanted attention…

What Larry Johnson writes here makes a good deal of sense. Even in Trump World, spending millions of dollars to publicly dress-down the US military makes little sense. A memo or video hook-up would have been far more effective and less disruptive.

Was the real purpose of this spectacle to hold a secret side meeting to give orders for an impending, multi-continental war? We’ll know soon…

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 16:25

Trump Plans Up To $14 Billion Farm Bailout Amid China Pivot To Brazil, WSJ Says

Update (1555ET):

The Trump administration has been signaling for about a week that it may tap tariff revenues to fund a multibillion-dollar aid package for American farmers, as China shifts its agricultural purchases to Brazil.

The Wall Street Journal revealed new details about the potential aid package on Thursday afternoon. People within the administration, or those familiar with the discussions, said Trump is considering a package between $10 billion and $14 billion, though the exact size has yet to be confirmed.

Sources said the aid package would focus on soybean farmers across the Midwest (some of Trump's biggest supporters), who have been hit hardest by both sliding prices and collapsing Chinese demand. 

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the administration could announce a new "substantial support" as soon as next Tuesday. Sources told WSJ that the timeline could be pushed out a little further due to the government shutdown. 

On Wednesday, President Trump blasted China on Truth Social for "hurting" American farmers during the negotiation period of a trade deal. He also said soybeans will be a "major topic of discussion" in his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump even hinted at the incoming aid package to farmers: "We've made so much money on Tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our Farmers."

What's been reported so far:

• Trump To Bail Out Farmers With Tariff Money, Will Investigate Seed & Fertilizer Companies Over Jacked Prices

• China Pivots To Brazil, Squeezing U.S. Farmers As Trump Plans Relief Fund

• Trump, Bessent Hit Back At China's Ag Purchase Pivot, Promise Farm Support Next Week

The key chart that shows China's shift in purchasing from U.S. farmers to Brazil...

Source: Financial Times 

*    *    * 

Following last week's news of China's massive shift away from American farmers in favor of Brazilian ones, the Trump administration is seeking financial support to mitigate the impact on U.S. farmers and plans to address the issue in upcoming trade talks with Beijing.

On Wednesday, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that U.S. farmers are "being hurt because China is, for negotiating reasons only, not buying," adding, "We've made so much money on Tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our Farmers."

In fact, Beijing's pivot to ag purchases in Brazil is merely one way to target Trump's farm base, with hopes that the hybrid pressure campaign will force his supporters to push the president into concessions in the trade war. Trump, however, has stated that he would use tariff revenue to cushion American farmers.

Source: Financial Times 

Related:

• Trump To Bail Out Farmers With Tariff Money, Will Investigate Seed & Fertilizer Companies Over Jacked Prices

• China Pivots To Brazil, Squeezing U.S. Farmers As Trump Plans Relief Fund

Earlier today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said U.S. farmers could see an announcement on a "substantial support" package as soon as Tuesday. 

*BESSENT: NEWS COMING TUE. ON SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORT FOR US FARMERS

*BESSENT: UNFORTUNATE CHINA DECIDED USING SOY IN TRADE TALKS

*BESSENT: MET WITH TRUMP, ROLLINS YESTERDAY ON FARMER ISSUE https://t.co/xpPdlZPm71

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2025

Trump noted in the Truth Social post above that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks and will make Soybeans a "major topic of discussion." 

. . . 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 15:55

Putin Warns US Tariffs On Russia's Partners Will Backfire: 'Oil Will Skyrocket, Exceed $100'

Update(1550): Earlier, we reported below that Washington is now openly affirming it will provide Ukraine with US intelligence assistance for long-range strikes targeting Russian oil facilities. Throughout the war, Ukraine has already hit the majority of Russian refineries - a hand full of them more than once - in drone attacks. Also, Europe is busy escalating with the French Navy having boarded what's believed to be a sanctions-busing oil tanker flying the Benin flag. 

Putin warned on Thursday that imposing higher tariffs on Russia's trading partners would lead to increased global prices and compel the US Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates. His comments also reflected on the US introduction an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in August, raising the total tariff on some Indian exports to 50%. Putin further criticized Washington's attempts to pressure countries like India and China to scale back their energy cooperation with Moscow, warning of unintended economic consequences.

He's had enough, and said severe countermeasures are coming during the Valdai discussion club meeting in Sochi. While oil prices have been steadily falling, Putin has threatened warned, oil prices "will skyrocket" and immediately exceed $100 per barrel without Russian crude supplies getting to the global market.

"It’s impossible to imagine that the loss of Russian oil would maintain normalcy in the global energy sector and the global economy. That won’t happen," he stated. "Is that really in the interests of the economies of countries that are already doing poorly, including European countries?"

He's also once again highlighting the ongoing contradictions and hypocrisy in EU policy.

* * *

The Kremlin is downplaying reports out of the Wall Street Journal and Reuters which cite unnamed US officials to say the Trump White House has quietly reversed policy on providing Ukraine with intelligence to assist in hitting long-range targets on Russian territory. The entrenched narrative is that the US under Trump had resisted this, and that it was Biden who had really put in place the American intelligence-sharing apparatus in Ukraine.

Specifically, as The Wall Street Journal reports, "The U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, American officials said, as the Trump administration weighs sending Kyiv powerful weapons that could put in range more targets within Russia."

But Moscow's response has been unexpectedly calm and cool, with a statement describing that nothing in fact has change, highlighting that US intelligence had already been flowing to Kiev for a long time.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "The US transmits intelligence to Ukraine on a regular basis online. The supply and use of the entire infrastructure of Nato and the US to collect and transfer intelligence to Ukrainians is obvious."

In the opening months of Trump's second term, the president got the warring sides to agree to a halt on attacking each other's energy sites. Though it held for perhaps weeks, it didn't take long for the moratorium to break down.

Ukraine especially has used it as a tactic to try and bring Russia's war machine to its knees. And there are recent reports showing some degree of success in inflicting economic pain.

Unprecedented refinery crisis in Russia after Ukrainian drone strikes.

— 38% of Russia’s refining capacity is offline, the highest ever disruption.

— Gasoline output fell by 1 million tons in September, creating a 20% domestic shortfall.

Economist cited by EP via RBC:… pic.twitter.com/PRfvSPkfUM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 1, 2025

"President Trump recently signed off on allowing intelligence agencies and the Pentagon to aid Kyiv with the strikes. U.S. officials are asking North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies to provide similar support, these people said," WSJ continues, marking the first such instance of Trump openly greenlighting Ukrainian strikes on Russia with long-range missiles.

The question of providing Tomahawks still remains an open one, and the Kremlin has said it would be "surprised" if the White House allowed such a serious escalation. Still, J.D. Vance early this week said the administration is seriously looking at the European request.

"The expanded intelligence-sharing with Kyiv is the latest sign that Trump is deepening support for Ukraine as his efforts to advance peace talks have stalled," WSJ adds.

International estimates are that thus far during the war Ukraine has struck a whopping 21 out of Russia's 38 refineries, some of them more than once, which has proven costly - also as sanctions have made it hard to find parts for quick repairs.

This alleged 'policy change' may be the direct result of heightened lobbying from Zelensky and the Europeans. After Zelensky was in New York last week for the UN General Assembly, Trump wrote on social media, "After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form." But this was also a way of simply handing off the bulk of the war effort to the Europeans, which itself could prove highly dangerous, even if Trump wants to washing his hands of it.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 15:50

White House Puts Vance At Helm To 'Drive [Shutdown] Fight Home'

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

Historically, no one really wins a government shutdown. But JD Vance might. In the 24 hours after Senate Democrats voted against a continuing resolution to keep the federal lights on, the vice president quickly became the face of the White House counterargument.

Vance began the day on Fox and Friends to blast Democrats for taking the government “hostage.” By midmorning, he was rallying the MAGA base during an appearance on The Ben Shapiro Show, where he predicted that Democratic resolve was “cracking.” In the afternoon, the vice president made a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room.

Reporters were only tipped off moments before when an advance staffer set up the ceremonial flag of the vice president behind the podium. According to sources familiar with the day’s planning, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt invited Vance to meet the press in person.

The shutdown may amount to the first real crisis of the second Trump administration. The White House feels they have the upper hand because they are not the ones who caused it and because they have an ace up their sleeve in Vance.

Another source familiar with the strategy told RealClearPolitics that the vice president “is widely known as the administration’s bulldog, a natural, excellent messenger, maintains good relationships with his former Senate colleagues, and served in the Senate throughout multiple government funding debates.”

“It only makes sense for Vance to help President Trump drive this fight home,” they added. And if Vance succeeds as the administration’s point man in that debate, it could go a long way towards further cementing the expectation that Trump’s apprentice will become his MAGA heir.

But the squabble in question is a little different than the normal brinksmanship over government funding, in large part because of who currently occupies the Oval Office. At the heart of the battle is a policy dispute over extending Obamacare subsidies and restoring Medicaid cuts that Republicans made in the One Big Beautiful Bill, the president’s marquee domestic policy achievement.

Trump alleges that, in exchange for keeping the government open, Democrats are demanding that the federal government provide healthcare to illegal immigrants. Democrats counter that Republicans are lying because illegal immigrants cannot receive Medicare or Medicaid. As part of the OBBB, Republicans put up additional barriers to ensure, in large part, that non-citizens do not receive those benefits. They say that if the subsidies were restored, then millions of immigrants, who entered the U.S. illegally but were paroled by the Biden administration, would again have access to taxpayer-funded healthcare.

Washington Sen. Patty Murray, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, pushed back: “Undocumented immigrants are not eligible to enroll in federally funded health coverage under existing law or Democrats’ funding proposal – but millions of American citizens will see their health care premiums double next year if Republicans keep refusing to act.”

As thorny as it is complicated, the fight centers around who exactly is “lawfully present” in the U.S. In short, Republicans made “lawfully present” immigrants ineligible for Obamacare subsidies, and now Democrats want to roll back that restriction. Into that thorny briar patch enters Vance.

“They say, ‘We’re not actually trying to give healthcare benefits to illegal aliens,’" Vance said of Democrats during his Fox News interview. “And here’s why it’s not true.” The vice president then pointed to two Biden-era actions, one that made immigrants eligible for emergency healthcare at hospitals and another that granted parole and Obamacare subsidies to millions of immigrants.

“So it’s not something that we made up,” he added. “It’s not a talking point. It is in the text of the bill that they initially gave to us to reopen the government. It’s preposterous for them to run away from it now.”

Procedural fights over funding the government do not normally move voters to the polls. But Trump has forced the political fight into the cultural zeitgeist when he posted an AI-generated video of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, complete with a fake mustache and sombrero. The Democrat called the images “racist” and “bigoted.” Vance laughed them off.

“I’ll tell Hakeem Jeffries right now, I make this solemn promise to you that if you help us reopen the government, the sombrero memes will stop,” the vice president told reporters. “And I’ve talked to the president of the United States about that.”

More than memes, the debate could have future political implications for Vance. The fight isn’t just about turning the lights back on. Longstanding conservative orthodoxy could shift in the process. The White House has told Democrats that they are willing to negotiate over Obamacare premiums but only after the government is reopened.

“Hopefully we can convince the president and others we can’t do that,” Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, told National Review of the possibility of continuing the Democratic extension of Obamacare subsidies. “I know people like me are vastly outnumbered here.”

Asked if the party that ran on repealing Obamacare for decades would actually extend Obamacare subsidies, Vance told RCP that the administration wants to ensure citizens have access to healthcare and “we are willing to have that conversation.”

“But I think it’s important to bracket that health care policy conversation,” the vice president clarified, “because it’s separate from the government shutdown.”

For now, the vice president is front and center in the shutdown conversation. Democrats have concluded as much. This includes California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential Vance opponent in the coming 2028 presidential election. A sign of the current digital discourse: Newsom posted a deep-fake video of Vance dressed like and sounding like an Oompa Loompa.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 15:45

American Eagle CEO Says Company Stands Behind Sydney Sweeney Ads

Authored by Haika Mrema via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

American Eagle Outfitters’ chief executive has defended the retailer’s ad campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney, saying the company will not retreat in the face of public criticism.

“You can’t run from fear,” CEO Jay Schottenstein said in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal. “We stand behind what we did.”

The campaign, which launched in late July, spotlighted the 27-year-old actress, best known for her roles in “Euphoria” and “The White Lotus,” modeling the brand’s denim line.

The promotional tagline, “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans,” played on a double meaning. In one video, Sweeney remarked, “Genes are passed down from parents to offspring, often determining traits like hair color, personality and even eye color. My jeans are blue.”

Sydney Sweeney x American Eagle, oh my god. pic.twitter.com/tDkeGT9R7G

— Sydney Sweeney Daily (@sweeneydailyx) July 24, 2025

The wordplay drew accusations from some critics who claimed the ads carried undertones of racism, sexism, or eugenics. The company declined to alter or withdraw the campaign.

Schottenstein, an Orthodox Jew, said he was surprised by such associations. He noted that his own family had endured the impact of Nazi Germany and said that if he and his team felt the campaign would be offensive in that way, “we never would’ve done it.”

In response to the criticisms, Schottenstein instructed his leadership team to remain calm, refrain from public comment, and assign a small group to monitor online reaction. American Eagle also hired an outside firm to poll customers about their response to the campaign.

The strategy appears to have benefited the company. Between July and September, the campaign helped attract nearly 1 million new customers, as reported by the Journal.

Popular items linked to Sweeney—including a cinched denim jacket and a wide-leg jean featuring a butterfly design—sold out within days. The company also reported an uptick in sales growth beginning in August, reversing earlier declines.

Some marketing experts said American Eagle’s decision to remain consistent set it apart from other corporations that have scaled back campaigns after online criticism. “By sticking to their guns, they gained customers,” said Susan Cantor, CEO of branding firm Sterling Brands.

The campaign also drew national attention beyond the retail world. President Donald Trump praised Sweeney and the ads in a post on Truth Social, calling it the “hottest” campaign running.

“Sydney Sweeney, a registered Republican, has the ‘HOTTEST’ ad out there,” the post read. “It’s for American Eagle, and the jeans are ‘flying off the shelves.’ Go get ‘em Sydney!”

American Eagle has continued building on the momentum, announcing a partnership with NFL player Travis Kelce, who is engaged to pop star Taylor Swift, weeks after Sweeney’s campaign launch.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 15:20

MMT RIP - Good Riddance

By Tom Teague of The Manhattan

Modern Monetary Theory is a macroeconomic theory developed in the early 1990s. It maintains that governments that issue their own currency are not financially constrained in the same way as households or businesses. According to MMT, governments can create money and spend as they see fit; taxes serve primarily as a tool to control inflation and create demand for the currency. MMT also emphasizes that government spending should aim to ensure full employment.

Putatively heterodox to most economists, MMT has often been quietly promoted as a back door to central planning. It is analogous to Critical Race Theory in that it is referenced everywhere, yet often denied when challenged. Although no major central bank has formally adopted it, MMT’s logic aligns with the behavior of many major central banks since the Global Financial Crisis.

During the GFC, the financial system nearly collapsed under excessive leverage to the housing market and a series of black swan events. The aftermath provided a platform for the political left—who had been sidelined by the fall of Communism—to return to power and lay the foundations for a new vision of society. This shift promoted “stakeholder” capitalism: an economy to be guided by elites seeking less greed, greater inclusivity, and more environmental focus. (See the World Economic Forum.)

New rules were implemented for Europe’s financial institutions, particularly insurance companies and pension funds. Post-GFC, European insurers were governed under Solvency II and III. Under these regimes, there was a zero risk-weight for government bonds and large capital charges for corporate bonds, equities, infrastructure, and securitizations. This forced a major reallocation of asset holdings in the insurance sector (which controls €9.5 trillion in assets) toward government bonds, and away from risk assets. Pension funds—managing another ~€10 trillion—were also affected by these regulations and incentivized to shift toward “safe” government bonds, though to a somewhat lesser extent. The result was a significant shift from the private sector to the public sector, greatly benefiting European governments that could now borrow more cheaply. This process arguably helped finance the ‘Great European Project,’ but at the expense of private sector vitality.

This regulatory drift toward government bonds did not stop in Europe. In the U.S., the Dodd-Frank Act and Basel III were implemented, which encouraged banks and other regulated institutions to hold Treasuries rather than risk assets. While these rules had a significant impact on banks’ balance sheets, their effect on insurance companies and pension funds was less direct. Basel III’s risk weightings granted U.S. Treasuries and MBS very low charges, while company loans, equities, private credit, and various securitizations faced 100% or higher risk charges. Notably, the risk weight for equities held on bank balance sheets increased from 100% to 250%.

Basel III’s greatest impact did not come from the risk weights alone, but from higher total capital requirements, new capital buffers, and the liquidity coverage ratio—all of which further favored government bonds and reinforced the preference for “safe assets.” In practice, this crowded out private sector lending and investment, even if risk weights themselves did not always change dramatically.

It is understandable that, following the near-collapse of the financial system, regulators sought to promote stability. Yet, the net effect of these efforts was to encourage lending to governments and discourage lending to the private sector—ironic, given that the crisis was rooted in regulatory failures to prevent excessive leverage in U.S. housing.

In the post-GFC era, governments—enjoying lower bond yields and greater regulatory power—found themselves in a position to expand spending. Using debt to solve problems and bail out economies became the norm. The crucial question is whether this shift was intentional, or merely a byproduct of circumstances. Given recent government agendas to “rebuild capitalism,” focus on climate initiatives, and promote forced equality (including through immigration), it seems unlikely to be accidental.

Government spending relative to GDP has accelerated in recent years. In the U.S., this figure grew from 35% in 2018 to 39.7% in 2024, peaking at 47% in 2020 during Covid (compared to less than 20% pre-GFC). In the EU, government spending hovered around 46.5% of GDP in 2015–2019, and surged to 52.9% during Covid. In Japan, government spending is normally about 40% of GDP and reached 47.1% during the pandemic. We have entered an age where governments use cheap borrowing to centrally plan economies.

A peculiar relationship has now evolved between central banks and governments. As government spending grows, central banks are increasingly tasked with protecting the government’s ability to borrow at low cost, instead of focusing on stimulating the private sector. Ambiguity arises when governments create jobs by expanding already bloated agencies, placing them in competition with the private sector. The result is a zero-sum game between the government and the private sector. Rather than fostering private sector growth, governments and central banks have tilted toward active intervention and control.

In 2017–2018, the Trump administration implemented deregulatory measures and passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, aiming to boost private sector business investment, productivity, and job growth. In response, Chairman Powell raised rates four times in 2018, moving the Fed Funds rate from 1.5% in March to 2.5% by December. The Fed’s rationale was to preempt inflation from an overheating economy—even as core inflation hovered near the 2% target. By Q4 2018, fears of tightening led to a major stock market correction.

In the past year, global bond yields have increased as markets become less tolerant of central planning and begin to price in weaker growth. German Bund yields have moved from 2.1% to 2.75% on the 10-year. In Japan, the 10-year JGB yield has climbed from 0.75% to 1.64%. Investors are realizing: 1) government spending is not effectively growing the economy (if it ever intended to), and 2) underinvestment in the private sector, due to energy costs, regulation, and offshoring, has eroded growth potential. Ultimately, the private sector must generate the taxes that service government debt.

Enter the Scully Curve: an economic concept positing a relationship between government spending (relative to GDP) and economic growth. The curve, named after Gerald Scully, argues for an optimal spending level—typically 24–32% of GDP for industrialized economies. For each additional 1% of government spending above this range, GDP growth may decrease by 0.1–0.2%; if spending rises to 45–50% of GDP, a 0.5–1.5% reduction in growth can be expected. This weakening of the private sector ultimately leads to doubts about debt repayment and undermines the argument that “the government can do it better.”

Central banks, often in concert with fiscal authorities, may now raise rates to combat inflation resulting from deficit spending—which in turn lifts borrowing costs for businesses, crowds out private investment, and distorts market signals. Studies from the post-2008 period reveal that sustained high rates in Europe suppressed private sector recovery and channeled capital into sovereign bonds.

MMT was a prescriptive idea for more central planning, and it has left a profound mark on government debt markets and private sector growth in the West. Now, as economies confront a world of high spending and low growth, there is increasing urgency to reverse course. Populist leaders, most notably Trump, are calling for shrinking government and deregulation to unleash pent-up private sector demand. The U.S., uniquely among major economies, may still have the capacity to grow out of the MMT legacy.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 15:00

ACLU Sues ICE To Release Records Of Detainment Facilities

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) filed a lawsuit against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), seeking to compel the agency to disclose records related to specific operations, according to the complaint filed on Oct. 1.

ICE agents charge toward protesters outside an ICE detention facility in Portland, Ore., on Sept. 1, 2025. John Rudoff/Reuters

The lawsuit, filed jointly by the ACLU and its Virginia and North Carolina affiliates in the District Court for the Southern District of New York, concerns the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).

According to the lawsuit, ICE issued a Request for Information (RFI) on May 28, seeking information on available detention facilities capable of housing single adult populations to support the agency’s Washington Field Office.

An RFI is issued to gather information regarding services or products from suppliers, and in the case of ICE, it wanted information on detection facilities. While ICE owns five detention facilities, it relies on private prison companies and other facilities to detain a majority of people in its custody, the lawsuit said.

On Aug. 8, plaintiffs submitted an FOIA request to ICE, asking for records of responses to the agency’s RFI.

The FOIA “was enacted to facilitate public access to government documents,” the lawsuit said.

The lawsuit added that the basic purpose of FOIA is to “ensure an informed citizenry, vital to the functioning of a democratic society, needed to check against corruption and to hold the governors accountable to the governed.”

With this aim in mind, the FOIA statute requires that federal agencies such as ICE disclose records within 20 working days, the lawsuit said.

An additional 10-day extension for processing may be provided under certain circumstances.

However, “more than 30 working days have passed” since plaintiffs filed the request, and there has been no response from ICE with regard to providing the records, the complaint said, adding that the statutory time period has elapsed.

“Plaintiffs have exhausted all administrative remedies regarding ICE’s failure to respond to the Request,” the complaint stated.

ACLU and its affiliates asked the court to order ICE to process and release the necessary records.

The ACLU lawsuit comes amid protests and instances of violence against ICE’s immigration enforcement operations and the officials carrying them out.

On Sept. 24, a gunman opened fire at the ICE Dallas building. While no law enforcement officers were injured in the attack, two detainees died.

On Sept. 26, ICE’s processing facility at Broadview, Illinois, saw clashes between protestors and federal agents. In a letter to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Broadview Mayor Katrina Thompson said residents approached her looking for help due to chemicals being allegedly used by federal agents near the ICE facility.

The DHS said in a Sept. 26 statement that some of the rioters had arrived with fireworks and gas masks, with one apprehended carrying a gun.

“These lawless rioters began chanting ‘Arrest ICE, Shoot ICE,’” the department said.

Since ICE launched Operation Midway Blitz in early September, targeting criminal illegal aliens in Illinois, “rioters have assaulted law enforcement, thrown tear gas cans, slashed tires of cars, blocked the entrance of the building, and trespassed on private property,” DHS said.

The Epoch Times reached out to the agency for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Efforts to Unmask ICE Officers

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law the No Secret Police Act (SB 627) on Sept. 20.

The act bans local and federal law enforcement, including ICE personnel, from wearing ski masks and other such “extreme masks,” according to a Sept. 20 statement from the office of California state Sen. Scott Wiener, lead author of the bill.

The bill was backed by a coalition of immigrant and civil rights groups. While the DHS asked Newsom to veto the bill, the governor opted not to do so, said the statement.

“The No Secret Police Act is a bold step that builds on a remarkable record of leadership defending our immigrant communities and democracy itself,” Wiener said.

In its Sept. 26 statement, DHS said that ICE officers were facing “a more than 1,000 percent increase in assaults against them.”

In a Sept. 26 X post, Bill Essayli, acting attorney for the Central District of California, criticized Newsom’s decision, accusing him of being “confused” with regard to his role under the U.S. Constitution.

Newsom “oversees California, not federal agencies. He should review the Supremacy Clause,” Essayli wrote.

“California’s law to ‘unmask’ federal agents is unconstitutional, as the state lacks jurisdiction to interfere with federal law enforcement. I have directed federal agencies to disregard this state law and adhere to federal law and agency policies,” Essayli said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 14:00

North Koreans Ordered To Identify Women With "Un-Socialist" Breasts

Authorities in North Korea have been ordered to identify women with "un-socialist" and "bourgeois" breast implants, The Telegraph reports, citing local media.

Illustration: Sanjeev Das

Undercover agents are now groping for 'enhanced' women, as well as for doctors who perform the cosmetic procedures, primarily around the city of Sariwon, with perpetrators facing potential detention in the country's notorious labor camps.

Suspected women will be "taken to hospitals to undergo medical examinations to ascertain whether any procedures have taken place," a tough job for whoever has to do it. 

The controversy bounced into the headlines after a dropout medical student was busted performing the surgery out of his home. During his trial, prosecutors displayed his surgical devices, along with imported Chinese silicone breasts and bundles of cash. 

The Telegraph reports:

The city’s residents, who had turned out to attend the public hearing, watched as the women and the doctor were dragged out onto an open stage, where they stood with their heads bowed for the proceedings.

The two women told prosecutors and the presiding judge that they had undergone the surgeries because they “wanted to improve their bodies”.

The judge called the breast augmentation surgery an “un-socialist act” and said one of the defendants “had no intention of being loyal to the organisation and group, but was obsessed with vanity and ended up becoming a poisonous weed that was eating away at the socialist system”.

A source, who refused to give their name out of fear, revealed to Daily NK: "Among the residents who watched the trial, there were voices of criticism such as 'doctors do all kinds of things for money,' but at the same time, there were also sympathetic comments such as 'Isn't he doing such things because he has no way to make a living?'"

Question of the day - and this is very serious as we are trying to raise awareness... are these unsocialist Korean breasts?

All pics via Instagram

How about these? (unrelated... because dry skin is the worst)

And these?

Unsocialist AI breasts? DELETE!

Wait, what???

Clearly we have some BIG fans of IQ Male Enhancement and our Waxed Canvas Hat. Unless Sanj is up to his old tricks.

So anyway... Kim's directive follows a pattern of measures targeting Western cultural influence in North Korea, including the execution of young citizens for listening to K-pop and a ban on commonplace terms such as "hamburger" and "ice cream."

Would she be targeted for Western cultural influence?

The situation in the isolated nation was detailed in a recent United Nations report, which documented that North Korea's secret police are conducting public executions for offenses including watching foreign films or sharing South Korean television dramas. The report cited one case in which a 22-year-old man from South Hwanghae province was publicly executed in 2022 for listening to 70 South Korean songs and distributing three films, actions deemed violations of the regime's restrictive laws. Defectors have suggested these public executions serve to "block people's eyes and ears," using fear to maintain control over the population.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 13:00

US Businesses Sign Record 98 Contracts Worth $170 Billion With Foreign Government Buyers

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

American businesses signed 98 contracts valued at $170 billion with foreign government buyers during the first nine months of the Trump administration, the Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration (ITA) said in a Sept. 30 statement.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick speaks at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh on July 15, 2025. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

“The record $170 billion in contracts signed with foreign government buyers so far in 2025 vastly surpasses the $12 billion in contracts signed during the same period in 2021,” ITA said.

The contracts are expected to support 589,000 American jobs and ensure $144 billion worth of made-in-USA exports.

“The record-breaking U.S. business wins under President Trump’s leadership reflect an unwavering commitment to rebuilding U.S. industry for the American worker,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.

“With record business deals abroad, America is strong again, and together with the American worker, President Trump is transforming the U.S. economy, rebalancing our global trade, and restoring America’s place in the world.”

In terms of value, the U.S. aerospace and defense sector inked $153 billion in contracts with foreign government entities, which is expected to keep the American industrial base strong, according to ITA.

Roughly $5 billion in deals have been signed that will strengthen energy security in the country, especially in the oil, gas, and nuclear sectors.

According to ITA, more than $800 million in contracts have been signed in the information technology sector. In the safety and security equipment sector, more than $600 million worth of deals have been entered, thereby countering untrusted tech and unfair tactics of foreign adversaries.

“In the first nine months of the Trump Administration, ITA advocacy has worked tirelessly to win contracts to support hundreds of thousands of American jobs,” said Commerce Undersecretary William Kimmitt.

“We will continue to be an unrelenting advocate around the world in support of American workers.”

The sharp uptick in business performance comes amid concerns about the state of the U.S. economy over the coming months.

In a Sept. 18 statement, think tank The Conference Board said that its leading economic index fell by 0.5 percent in August from the previous month, suggesting a near-term decline in the economy.

This was the largest monthly fall since April, according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the think tank.

“Overall, the LEI suggests that economic activity will continue to slow. A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026,” Zabinska-La Monica said.

Despite these projections, GDP growth has increased in the recent second quarter, signaling a strengthening of the economy.

In the first quarter of 2025, GDP contracted by 0.6 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, in the second quarter, the first full quarter under the Trump administration, GDP grew by 3.8 percent, higher than initial estimates of 3 percent.

“America’s economic resurgence under President Trump continues: revised data show even stronger real GDP growth of 3.8 percent in Q2 2025 thanks to the Trump agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy abundance,” White House deputy press secretary Kush Desai wrote in an X post on Sept. 25.

A Sept. 24 statement from the Chamber of Commerce said that small business confidence continued to climb in the third quarter, according to a survey of small business owners.

“This quarter’s Index reflects a resilient small business community that’s cautiously optimistic about the economy,” said Tom Sullivan, vice president of small business policy at the chamber.

“But high costs are still holding many back from expanding and investing.”

Among the respondents. 46 percent said inflation was the biggest challenge, while 34 percent blamed the cost of goods and services as the most significant roadblock to expansion.

The economic outlook improved among respondents, with 40 percent saying the U.S. economy was in good health.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 12:40

Judge Rejects Racial Gerrymandering Claims In North Carolina Senate Maps

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

A judge has rejected claims that voters in two North Carolina legislative districts were the victims of racial gerrymandering.

U.S. District Judge James Dever ruled on Sept. 30 that Republicans did not illegally manipulate the boundaries of the two northeastern state districts to favor candidates.

The case stemmed from a suit against the GOP legislative leaders in November 2023, brought by two plaintiffs, one of whom is now a Democratic state House member.

The pair claimed that the state Senate districts, as approved by the General Assembly, were illegal.

According to the suit, they argued that the map violated Section 2 of the U.S. Voting Rights Act via race-based discrimination, and that lawmakers should have created a majority-black district instead of the current districts. 

The two areas in question cover about 20 counties in a region that has a significant African American population.

In 2024, white Republicans were elected to the two district seats. 

Dever wrote a 126-page order, saying that plaintiffs Moses Matthews and Rep. Rodney Pierce lacked standing to challenge one of the districts, because neither lived in the area, and they failed to provide evidence that the lines, as drawn, watered down black residents’ voting power. 

The judge also stated that Republican lawmakers didn’t have access to race-based data while mapping the new districts.

Dever pointed out that the 2024 elections, held under the 2023 maps, resulted in 38 of 170 seats going to African American candidates—roughly proportional to their population in the state.

“This case does not involve the General Assembly engaging in race-based districting or the odious practice of sorting voters based on race,” Dever wrote.

“Black voters in northeast North Carolina and throughout North Carolina have elected candidates of their choice (both white and black) with remarkable frequency and success for decades.”

A number of states are currently considering redistricting in some form.

A request from the Department of Justice prompted Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to add redistricting to a state congressional special session.

California took up redistricting in response to the possible loss of seats for Democrats in the House of Representatives.

Missouri was the third to join the push after a Sept. 12 decision by the Missouri Senate to approve a redrawn congressional map to increase Republicans’ odds in a longtime Democratic district. 

Ohio was already in the midst of a legally required congressional map redraw, due to the 2022 map passing without sufficient Democratic support to satisfy state laws. 

Additionally, Maryland and Indiana lawmakers are considering changes that could change their congressional delegation makeup.

In Maryland, however, the change would likely impact the state’s sole Republican, and in Indiana, Republicans believe they could increase their footprint if redistricting takes place. 

Redistricting is also being considered in Illinois, Florida, New York, Nebraska, Utah, and Kansas.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 10:40

FBI Cuts All Ties With ADL, Calling It 'Political Front' Disguised As A Watchdog

In a striking move for an administration that caters to the State of Israel and its American supporters, the FBI has severed its ties with the staunchly pro-Israel Anti-Defamation League (ADL), with Director Kash Patel saying the bureau refuses to team up with "political fronts masquerading as watchdogs." 

The move comes after the ADL found itself facing a conservative uproar over including the recently-assassinated Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA in its "Glossary of Extremism and Hate." On Tuesday, the ADL announced it was retiring the glossary, a measure that failed to spare the 102-year-old group from an extraordinarily rare rebuke from a senior US official. 

The ADL is a hate group https://t.co/E7SXOajgoU

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 1, 2025

"James Comey wrote 'love letters' to the ADL and embedded FBI agents with them - a group that ran disgraceful ops spying on Americans," wrote Patel on X. "That era is OVER. This FBI won’t partner with political fronts masquerading as watchdogs." 

Patel's jab at Comey referred to a speech the then-FBI director gave at the ADL's National Leadership Summit in 2017, where he declared his "love" for the ADL. He called his previous 2014 speech a "love letter to the ADL," adding, "from the perspective of the FBI, we’re still in love with you."

FBI Director James Comey gushing about the ADL in 2014: “If this sounds like a love letter to the ADL, it is, because I intend it so.”

Comey to the ADL in 2017: “We are still in love with you.”pic.twitter.com/cdfHIpH8AM

— Decensored News (@decensorednews) November 2, 2023

As it announced the termination of its controversial 1,000-entry glossary, the ADL didn't acknowledge any regrets about the content. Instead, the group said it "saw a number of entries intentionally misrepresented and misused," casting itself as a victim and ignoring those whom the group has vilified as bigots for criticizing the Israeli government.  

Categorized under "Extremism, Hate or Terrorism," the ADL's now-deleted entry on Turning Point USA claimed the group had a history of "bigoted statements," "attract[s] racists" and offers a "vast platform for extremists and far-right conspiracy theorists." In July, pro-Israel groups and individual were outraged when the Turning Point USA 2025 Student Action Summit gave a platform to the likes of Dave Smith and Tucker Carlson, who condemned Israel's conduct in Gaza and American interventions in the Middle East on Israel's behalf, and said Jeffrey Epstein was an Israeli intelligence asset. The Grayzone reported that, after the event, "Kirk was bombarded with infuriated text messages and phone calls from Netanyahu’s wealthy allies in the US, including many who had funded TPUSA."   

 

The ADL has long delivered workshops on hate crimes, extremism and antisemitism to not only the FBI but many other law enforcement agencies and police departments across the country. In the past, the ADL has also facilitated programs where American police officers receive training from Israeli officers. That program was paused following significant backlash springing from concerns about the often-heavy-handed tactics employed in Israel, particularly against Palestinians. 

The ADL has also furnished the FBI with data on hate crimes since the 1940s. The group has faced significant criticism for using an expansive definition of an "antisemitic incident" that includes vocal opposition to the political philosophy of Zionism or comparing the actions of the Israeli government to those of Nazi Germany. For example, by counting the slogan "From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free" as inherently antisemitic, every rally in support of Palestinians has presented an opportunity to pad the numbers and cast antisemitism as a far larger problem than it actually is.  

Where the FBI is concerned, all the data sharing, workshops and alleged embedding of FBI employees at the ADL are a thing of the pst. As Patel told Fox News with a heavy sense of finality, "The FBI formally rejects any partnership with the ADL."

*  *  *

For Him // For Her // Save the planet

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 10:20

Homeland Security Removes 5 TSA Officials Over Biden-Era Watchlist

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said on Sept. 30 that it removed five senior officials from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), accusing them of weaponizing a now-abolished aviation security watchlist to target innocent Americans.

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem speaks during a news conference at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on July 8, 2025. Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

The department said in a statement that the dismissals were the result of an internal investigation into alleged abuses committed by officials, in relation to the TSA’s “Quiet Skies” program, which was scrapped by the Trump administration in June.

DHS and TSA will be referring the matter to Congress and the Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division, DHS added.

The department said that the dismissed officials had “systematically watchlisted and denied boarding to those who exercised their individual rights and resisted mask mandates on airplanes nearly six months after the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] relaxed its indoor mask mandate.”

Homeland Security added that the TSA had used the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol protests “as an excuse to target several dozen U.S. citizens.”

“These Americans were watchlisted and harassed despite there being no evidence of wrongdoing or illegal behavior,” the department said. “This targeted campaign of harassment continued through June 2021, six months after the events in question, despite no clear or immediate threat to aviation security.”

DHS Secretary Kristi Noem wrote in a Sept. 30 post on X that the TSA had “wildly abused their authority, targeting Americans who posed no aviation security risk under the banner of political differences. President Trump promised to end the weaponization of government against the American people, and we are making good on that promise.”

Quiet Skies

The Quiet Skies program, abolished on June 5, was established by the DHS in 2012 under the Obama administration to ensure that higher-risk passengers are more thoroughly searched before they board commercial aircraft.

Once a passenger was identified and put on the list, he or she would be subjected to more invasive security screening by TSA officers at airports.

Conservatives had criticized the program for allegedly targeting them for their political views, rather than for posing a genuine security risk.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard speaks at the Building a Legacy: Remembering Charlie Kirk Memorial event at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., on Sept. 21, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The DHS referenced an earlier internal investigation that found the TSA had conducted surveillance on former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard—the current director of national intelligence (DNI)—under the Quiet Skies program.

In May 2025, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee heard from its chairman, Rand Paul (R-K.Y.), that he had received records regarding Gabbard’s placement on the watchlist, which he said confirmed suspicions that she had been surveilled by federal air marshals during domestic flights in 2024.

“I am horrified by the idea that we took a former congresswoman and we are surveilling her and riding on jets with her,” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said during the hearing. “I want repercussions to come from this.”

An employee with the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checks the documents of a traveler at Reagan National Airport in Washington on Jan. 6, 2019. Joshua Roberts/Reuters

On Sept. 30, the same committee held a hearing to examine the “weaponization of the Quiet Skies Program,” adding new documents to the record. The chairman said in a statement that he welcomed the ending of Quiet Skies, but said more work needed to be done to ensure that the program does not come back in the future with a different name.

“Every official who directed or approved surveillance of Americans for protected speech must be removed from office. Full transparency must become the rule rather than requiring a year of investigation,” Paul said.

Gabbard said via the same statement that the Quiet Skies program “has been used for nearly two decades to target and surveil everyday Americans, violating our constitutional rights and civil liberties, targeting political opponents, and costing taxpayers approximately $200 million per year, all while failing to stop a single terrorist.”

Noem said that the TSA’s critical security functions will be maintained and that the Trump administration “will return TSA to its true mission of being laser-focused on the safety and security of the traveling public. This includes restoring the integrity, privacy, and equal application of the law for all Americans.”

Arjun Singh contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 10:00

Intel Reportedly In Early Stage Talks To Make Chips For AMD

Intel’s stock jumped over 7% Wednesday after Semafor reported the company is in early talks to make chips for longtime rival AMD in its foundry business. AMD shares also ticked higher, up more than 1% on Wednesday - and is up nearly 4% in Thursday trade.

Such a deal would be a major boost for Intel’s relatively new manufacturing arm, which has struggled to attract big customers and has been one of the key reasons Wall Street has had trouble getting behind Intel as an investment.

Analysts say landing AMD would not only validate Intel’s technology but also “send a signal to other chip companies” that the firm can handle large-scale production. AMD, for its part, would be entrusting critical chipmaking to its direct competitor—an unusual move given both companies battle in the x86 PC and server markets.

Illustration via TechPowerUp

It remains unclear how much manufacturing AMD would shift from TSMC, its current supplier. Both Intel and AMD declined to comment.

Intel “currently lacks the technology to produce AMD’s most advanced, profitable chips,” Semafor wrote, meaning any potential deal may cover only part of AMD’s manufacturing, and “it is possible that no agreement will be reached.” Some reports suggest the arrangement could even involve a direct investment by AMD, similar to deals struck with other companies. Semafor has also reported Intel is in talks for backing from Apple.

As Tom's Hardware notes; 

In the past several weeks, Intel has seen a flurry of activity and investments. The United States announced a 9.9% ownership stake in Intel, while Softbank bought $2 billion worth of shares. Alongside Nvidia, Intel announced new x86 chips using Nvidia graphics technology, with the graphics giant also purchasing $5 billion in Intel shares. There have also been reports that Intel and Apple have been exploring ways to work together.

Such a partnership with AMD could validate former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger's vision. He had previously expressed interest in building chips for all of the world's major tech companies, including long-time rival AMD. It's unknown if AMD is considering a stock purchase similar to Nvidia.

AMD would be a major get for Intel, the latter of which has talked to many companies in a search for foundry customers. Current Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan has suggested the company could stop offering its 18A node entirely if there isn't enough demand for it.

The news comes as Intel seeks a turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Recent backing from the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank has been seen as a vote of confidence, though Nvidia stopped short of committing to Intel’s foundry. Intel, once dominant in laptop chips, has been “left flat-footed” by Nvidia’s rapid rise in AI.

Intel shares have surged nearly 77% in 2025. Still, doubts persist. As Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon quipped: “If you aren’t sure they’ll come, don’t build it," according to IBD.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 09:40

Tesla Shares Surge To 2025 High After Q3 Deliveries Smash Expectations

Tesla shares jumped 3.5%, rising to a fresh 2025 high and pushing Elon's wealth above $500 billion, after the company reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter delivery figures. Deliveries came in at 497,099 vehicles, a 7.4% increase from a year earlier and smashing Bloomberg consensus estimates of 439,612. The numbers also beat the recently-boosted guidance from Goldman and UBS.

The bulk of the growth came from the company’s mass-market lineup: Model 3/Y deliveries reached 481,166, up 9.4% year-over-year and surpassing expectations of 424,828. Deliveries of Tesla’s other models totaled 15,933, representing a 53% jump from the previous quarter but slightly below estimates of 17,184.

On the production side, Tesla built 447,450 vehicles, down 4.8% from a year earlier and just under the consensus of 450,313. Model 3/Y production totaled 435,826, a 1.8% decline but still ahead of forecasts. Production of other models slipped to 11,624, down 13% from the prior quarter.

The strong delivery numbers likely reflect the pull-forward effect ahead of changes in US tax credits. Federal incentives that provided buyers with up to $7,500 for new EVs and $4,000 for used EVs expired on September 30 under new legislation passed by Congress. Tesla and its rivals had been factoring these credits into competitive lease and purchase offers, boosting demand in the final weeks of the quarter.

As we noted a week ago, Goldman recently raised raised both its delivery estimates and price targets into today's report. UBS analysts also lifted their delivery forecast. "We believe our new forecast is more in line with buy-side expectations in the 470-475k range," UBS analyst Joseph Spak told clients about a week ago.

Spak also predicted the stock wouldn't move much as a result of a beat. He continued, "Despite a print that may be inline with buyside expectations, we tend to find the stock does react to beat/misses vs. the headline number." 

UBS said in their note that a push to take advantage of the tax credit would help delivery numbers: "Strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025. We believe 3Q25 could be the highest quarterly US deliveries since mid-2023 and potentially the highest ever. We believe demand is very likely being pulled forward so we'd expect a q/q drop in 4Q25, even if the new "lower cost" Model Y is introduced."

He also said improved European and China sales, combined with strong delivery growth in Turkey and South Korea, could also help. 

While deliveries beat expectations, investors will be closely watching upcoming earnings results for more clarity on margins, particularly given the production decline and the impact of incentive-driven sales.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 09:19

Even As A Free Man, Ross Ulbricht Still Under Fire

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

In 2009, I received an email from an obviously brilliant young software developer named Ross Ulbricht. We discussed a “venture to create a free market computer simulation based on the Austrian theory.” His idea was to use many of the newest digital tools to create a digital marketplace, one that would experiment with a new form of digital money called Bitcoin. It was obvious from my correspondence that Ross’s interest was entirely in applied economics with an idealistic bent.

The result was the Silk Road, the world’s first distributed marketplace using digital money, existing outside the bounds of physical space and thereby traversing the regulatory limits of nation-state rules. Ross was a builder and admin, not a merchant. The main product that ended up selling on the site was marijuana, then mostly illegal but now widely for sale in every major city. The site had rules and limits but as with all such experiments, it was a work in progress.

That work was massively disrupted on October 1, 2013, when he was surrounded by feds who arrested him and took his laptop. In the trial later, he was declared guilty of distributing narcotics, money laundering, engaging in criminal enterprise, and distribution of fake ID documents. The judge sentenced him to more than two lifetimes in prison. He served 11 years, until Donald Trump commuted the sentence. He now lives a normal life while giving speeches on the ideals that motivated him in the first place.

The incredible feature of this story is that Ross never touched a narcotic. He never hurt anyone (the fake “murder for hire” charges were not raised in trial). What he did was build a website that became a huge marketplace, one that bypassed the cartels and provided peer-to-peer contact between buyer and seller. It was in fact a fascinating experiment, one for the ages. It was the product of a time of over-the-top techno-utopianism infused with a libertarian ethos.

The difference between the pure theorists of this period and Ross is that he wanted to try out what a free market would be like in real life. His motivation was not about money, much less power, but libertarian idealism. He had other partners in the enterprise who were never touched by the feds (probably because they cooperated with them.)

In any case, it was due entirely to the passion and love shown by his mother Lynn Ulbricht that his cause stayed alive and the movement to free him from the cage grew and grew, to the point that Trump himself promised his release upon election. He kept his promise. Now Ross is a folk hero. I will add, too, that he is a very nice person, brilliant and humble. Just imagine that he received two lifetimes in jail for creating a website! Obviously this sentence was deeply unjust.

Why is this crucial to discuss now?

Kamala Harris’s new book criticizes Ross as a “fentanyl dealer” and attacks President Trump for commuting his sentence after he spent 11 years in a high-security prison. The charge is completely untrue. He never dealt fentanyl or any other drug. He made a peer-to-peer website as an experiment in freedom. Such markets still exist on the dark web, so arresting and charging Ross made no difference whatsoever. What happened to him was cruel and capricious, and he has suffered greatly for his mistakes. It is beyond belief that Kamala would say this about such an earnest young man.

She might be heavily misinformed but there is ever less excuse in our times to make such errors, since any fact-check engine could have caught the error in no time. She was just looking for some excuse to attack Trump. But one wonders if it ever occurred to her that Ross is a real person, with a mom and siblings and now a wife and a life. It is inconceivable that she would use her platform now to say such things.

How well I recall those early days of the Silk Road. It was not just an experiment in a free marketplace. It was an opportunity to try out the world’s first truly successful attempt to use the internet to deploy a non-state money. Decades had gone by with failure after failure. Bitcoin was different because it was the first to solve the double-spending problem. It created a property-like object out of 1s and 0s and limited their creation rate so that it could function as a real money.

In 2010, I had my doubts that Bitcoin could work. But by early 2013, I came to understand that this technology had cobbled together the magic combination of factors that led it to become real money: double-key cryptography, a distributed network, a finite and unhackable creation rate, and the capacity for peer-to-peer exchange. In developing a marketplace that accepted it, Ross was engaged in a grand experiment that probably should have won him the Nobel Prize in economics. Instead, he was put in the slammer merely for visionary technological development.

His arrest was something I had not anticipated. I was naive about the power of the state and its agents, how they are skilled at getting insiders to turn against each other, and how they like to find one person to serve as an example to the world. They were anxious to prosecute Ross as a way of humiliating the techno-utopians of the day who believed that the Internet could be used as an experiment in perfect freedom.

There are many grave ironies of this whole period.

Bitcoin is a major market player and no longer lives under a cloud. The crypto industry itself has a market capitalization that is approaching $4 trillion. Remember that Bitcoin was priced at only a few dollars when the Silk Road first opened. And the product that mostly dominated its sales is now available in every major city. I was just in San Francisco where it seems like there is a dispensary on every city block.

I deeply regret what drugs—legal and illegal—have done to our society. Whether it is legally and scientifically approved psych drugs or fentanyl on the streets, no society can function with a substantial part of its population mentally wrecked by this stuff. I feel the same about weed, with many examples of people in my own life who have suffered from terrible addiction. I suspect that Ross agrees with me here. He was never accused of buying or selling a single illicit product, contrary to Kamala’s claims.

What the Silk Road achieved was to remove the cartels from their monopoly on distribution. Surely that is a notable achievement. As much as I would like to see a world without these products, that is not a realistic aim. Getting the high monopoly profits out of the underground markets, however, is a reasonable goal, one that Ross did have some success in achieving. Meanwhile, we seem to be headed to a place where governments are starting to see the point. Even the Trump administration is experimenting with a new government website that will bypass the middlemen and allow direct to consumer sales of prescription medications.

For Ross’s part, he is thrilled to be a free man again. He spends his time influencing others to live better and more centered lives in the real world, applying some beautiful lessons from his many years in prison. He paid a heavy price for his youthful error, and gained some valuable lessons. He deserves better than to be caricatured and smeared in a wicked partisan struggle.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:40

Stocks Hit Record Highs Around The Globe As AI Mania Hits Escape Velocity

US equity futures are higher with tech and small caps both outperforming as the screaming AI euphoria drove global indexes to fresh highs after an OpenAI share sale valued the company at an eye-popping $500 billion, catapulting the firm to become the world’s most valuable startup, surpassing SpaceX. As of 8:00am ET,  S&P futures were 0.2% higher, trading at a fresh all time high, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%, putting the gauge on track for a fifth straight gain. Pre-market, Mag7 tech are mostly higher led by NVDA (+1.3%) and TSLA (+1.5%); global chipmakers soared and energy REIT Fermi jumped for a second day after its IPO. We have also seen overnight outperformance in both European and Asian markets despite relatively muted incremental news flows: Europe’s Stoxx 600 also hit a record after rising 0.8%, led by an advance of more than 2% in technology shares. In Asia, equities rose past last month’s record close as chipmakers rallied. MSCI’s global index also notched a fresh high. Bond yields are unchanged; USD is lower; Oil is lower, while metals are higher. Today's Initial and Continuing Claims data will be delayed due to the shutdown; we should get the final August Durables/Factory orders prints at 10am.

In premarket trading, Mag7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +1.7%, Nvidia +1.3%, Meta +0.7%, Apple +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Alphabet -0.09%, Microsoft -0.2%).

• Absci (ABSI) is up 4% after JPMorgan initiates at overweight, saying the biotech company’s unique expertise in the computational space could change how new therapeutics are found.
• AngioDynamics (ANGO) rises 11% after the medical-device maker boosted its net sales guidance for the full year.
• Edison International (EIX) falls 1.8% after Jefferies downgraded the utility to hold, citing a higher risk profile.
• Equifax (EFX), a credit-reporting company, drops 11% and TransUnion (TRU) falls 10% after Fair Isaac Corp. announced a new program giving mortgage lenders the option to calculate and distribute FICO scores directly to customers. Shares of Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) are up 20%.
• Fermi (FRMI) rises 16% after the Texas-based real estate investment trust rallied 55% in its market debut on Wednesday.
• Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (SHLS) climbs 8% after Barclays upgraded the renewable-energy equipment company to overweight, citing growth potential.
• Stellantis (STLA) gains 7% after the maker of Jeep SUVs reported a gain in third-quarter US deliveries, sparking optimism on the group’s turnaround prospects.

The US govt shutdown quietly entered its shutdown for a second day and markets could care less. Strategists noted that past shutdowns have typically had little macroeconomic impact, and judging by recent history, have actually pushed stocks higher. At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he doesn’t anticipate a long shutdown, adding that layoffs will come if it lasts for days or weeks. 

“This is all very much a storm in a teacup,” wrote Michael Brown, a senior market strategist at Pepperstone. “The government has shut down 20 times in the past, and reopened 20 times as well – this time will not be different.”

OpenAI’s valuation soared to $500 billion after current and former employees sold about $6.6 billion of stock. In wave of good news that swept along semiconductor and AI companies, the ChatGPT owner also forged agreements with South Korean firms. Separately, OpenAI also released a social app for sharing AI Videos and inked a deal with Samsung and Hynix to supply its ambitious Stargate datacenter project. Apple has paused a planned overhaul of its Vision Pro headset to focus on developing smart glasses that can rival Meta’s products.

The AI boom has powered global stocks to successive highs, with a resumption of interest-rate cuts and resilient earnings adding to the bullish momentum. For now, investors also see limited risk from the political impasse in Washington, which has triggered the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.

“The tech sector is so large and it’s doing so well,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “The reason the market is prepared to pay those high valuations for the tech sector is really because we don’t see good growth opportunities outside tech.”

In the latest tariff news, the EU plans to hike duties on its steel imports to 50%, according to a draft proposal. As for macro data, the government shutdown and other challenges at the government statistics bureaus means clear signals about the economy are difficult to assess. 

A relentless buying spree in US equities dominated quarter-end pension rebalancing, overwhelming projected net selling, according to the trading desk at Goldman Sachs. Bank of America derivatives strategists see scope to use options to bet on further gains for tech. If a 45% rally in the sector since early April looks like a bubble, it probably won’t burst any time soon, they said. Also top of mind is the fast-approaching 3Q reporting season. Earnings outlook momentum remains positive although has trended lower in recent weeks, according to Citi’s earnings revisions index.

Turning to the data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data on Friday will likely be delayed, as well as the weekly initial jobless claims numbers usually due Thursdays. Still, figures from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed US employers dialed back hiring plans in September, even though they also announced fewer job cuts. Even without the data however, money markets are almost fully pricing a quarter-point Fed cut at the end of the month and see an 80% chance of another in December to support the labor market.

“If you really dig into the labor market data, it’s not just an AI structural story, it’s not just a lower immigration story, you are seeing that cyclical demand weakness,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The clearest part to this puzzle is wage growth, there is a lack of wage growth in the US.”

European stocks rally to a new record on a boost for tech and car stocks. Tech optimism is bolstered by OpenAI raising funds to value the firm at $500 billion. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.7% and the Euro Stoxx 50 by 1.3% while a gauge of EM stocks hit the highest since 2021 on the AI-driven optimism. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Stellantis shares gain as much as 7.6% in Milan after the maker of Jeep SUVs reported a gain in third-quarter US deliveries, sparking optimism about turnaround prospects.
• European semiconductor stocks lead a broader market rally on Thursday, following gains among US peers late in Wednesday’s trading.
• Rational shares rise as much as 7.4% after the professional kitchen equipment maker was upgraded by Barclays on valuation grounds, while Bernstein lifted its price target to a new Street-high.
• Tesco shares rise as much as 4.2% after Britain’s biggest supermarket reported first-half profit that beat estimates and boosted its adjusted operating profit forecast for the year.
• Hochtief gains as much as 6.8%, hitting a new record high, as BofA double-upgrades to buy from underperform, citing the construction and infrastructure firm’s attractive growth story.
• Novo rises as much as 4.8% while Roche gains as much as 1.5% after the pair were upgraded to buy from hold at HSBC, while AbbVie was downgraded to a hold from buy.
• Piaggio shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most since late July, after Italian Cycle and Motorcycle Association data showed a rebound in the two-wheeler market.
• Sobi climbs as much as 5.2%, in a fourth straight day of gains, as Danske Bank says there may be scope for the Swedish biopharma company to upgrade its guidance at the upcoming third-quarter results.
• Morgan Sindall jumps 13% to a record high as the construction group says it is performing “significantly ahead of previous expectations” after business at its Fit Out division continued to strengthen.

Earlier in the session, Asian shares advanced for a fourth day, turbocharged by technology firms after a deal between OpenAI and South Korean chipmakers brightened the outlook of artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.2%, the most in nearly four weeks. TSMC was among the biggest contributors, along with Alibaba and SK Hynix.  The Kospi was the region’s top performer, jumping 2.7% to a fresh record, following Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s deal to supply chips to OpenAI’s Stargate project. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Australia and Singapore all climbed over 1%. The tech rally has been underpinning the recent strength of Asian stocks, as investors brushed off geopolitical risks and the first US government shutdown in seven years. An informal survey by Bloomberg also shows that strategists expect the region to outperform the US in the current quarter on attractive valuations and earnings prospects. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped as trading resumed after a public holiday. Alibaba was among the lead gainers after JPMorgan boosted its price target by 45%, citing an improved outlook for cloud revenue and growing synergy between its AI and e-commerce operations. Mainland Chinese and Indian markets were shut for a holiday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%; kiwi and the yen outperforming.

In rates, treasuries mostly held Wednesday’s gains, with the yield on 10-year notes steady at 4.09%. After Fed rate-cut expectations pulled yields down from January’s high near 4.80%, traders are now contending with a temporary blackout in economic data amid the government shutdown.

In commodity markets, gold extended its record-breaking rally while oil fell for a fourth consecutive day. West Texas Intermediate slid toward $61 a barrel, touching the lowest level in four months as expectations of OPEC+ restoring more idled supply deepened fears of a global glut. 

Looking at today's calendar, the 8:30am jobless claims data will be delayed. Factory orders, durable goods and cap goods for August are all due at 10 am New York, but the government shutdown may affect the release of economic data

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
• DAX +1.3%
• CAC 40 +1.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.09%
• VIX -0.2 points at 16.06
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1198.34
• euro +0.2% at $1.1757
• WTI crude -0.5% at $61.48/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The shutdown entered a second day with little sign of a breakthrough. The White House is looking to cancel infrastructure projects in Democratic-leaning states. Jobless claims data won’t be released today, a Labor Department spokesman said. BBG
• The US will lose $15 billion in GDP each week during a shutdown, Politico reported, citing a White House memo. BBG
• Global chipmakers saw their market value soar as investors rushed to get exposure to artificial intelligence, the latest sign of a frenetic bull run that is pushing tech stocks to all-time highs. The combined market capitalization of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index and a gauge tracking Asia chip stocks went up by just over $200 billion in the latest session. BBG
• Trump said Wednesday that soybeans will be a “major” topic in his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later this month, pledging aid for American farmers after Beijing halted purchases of the staple amid trade tensions. Nikkei
• OpenAI’s valuation reached $500 billion, a person familiar said, surpassing SpaceX as the world’s largest startup. Employees sold about $6.6 billion of stock to investors including Joshua Kushner’s Thrive Capital and SoftBank. BBG
• Apple (AAPL) has shelved its headset revamp to prioritise Meta-style AI glasses: Bloomberg.
• The U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, American officials said, as the Trump administration weighs sending Kyiv powerful weapons that could put in range more targets within Russia. WSJ
• The EU is planning to join US and Canadian efforts to tackle cheap Chinese steel imports by reducing import quotas and increasing tariffs. The European industry commissioner promised industry bosses and unions to levy tariffs of up to 50% on foreign steel at an emergency meeting on Wed. FT
• Japanese business mood is improving and corporate profits remain high even as U.S. tariffs weigh on exports, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said, signalling confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike was falling into place. RTRS
• Japan’s bonds fell after an auction of 10-year notes saw the bid-to-cover ratio drop from last month, in a show of weak demand. BBG
• Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said he is starting to get more concerned about inflation moving the wrong way and that counting on it being transitory makes him nervous. He noted that with the BLS down, there are limited indicators on inflation, said he hopes tariff impacts will prove transitory, and added that while the underlying economy is strong enough to allow rates to come down a fair amount, the Fed should be careful: RTRS
• Trump's Administration is reportedly working with Pharma, AI, Energy, Ship Building, Battery Products and other sectors: Reuters 

US Govt Shutdown

• US President Trump plans to cancel Western hydrogen hubs amid the government shutdown fight, according to Bloomberg.
• US President Trump posted that Republicans must use the Democrat-forced closure to clear out dead wood, waste, and fraud, adding that billions of dollars can be saved, via Truth Social.
• S&P warned that the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with extended delays in key economic data releases potentially complicating Fed monetary policy decisions. The agency estimated the shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.1–0.2 ppts per week.

Trade/Tariffs

• Preparations for US President Trump’s visit to Asia have ground to a halt amidst the government shutdown, Nikkei reported, with officials at the embassies of Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea scrambling to gather information ahead of his visit in just over three weeks.
• South Korea’s Foreign Minister said South Korea and the US have broadly reached an agreement in the security sector, Yonhap reported.
• Brazil and the US are working to arrange an in-person meeting between Presidents Lula and Trump, according to Bloomberg.
• Japan and US reportedly arranging a visit by US President Trump to Japan on October 27, according to Japanese press.
• The EU plans to hike steel import tariffs to 50%, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were firmer, with gains across the board following a positive handover from Wall Street, where tech outperformed, whilst the US jobs reports this week look set to be delayed after CR votes failed again on Wednesday, as expected. ASX 200 was propped up by strength in gold and mining names while defensive sectors lagged, with no reaction seen to the RBA Financial Stability Review, which suggested Australia’s financial system remains well positioned to navigate a period of elevated global uncertainty. Nikkei 225 saw upside led by metals and pharma stocks, though gains were capped as the JPY trimmed earlier losses. Hang Seng conformed to regional gains and played catch-up to yesterday’s price action during the National Day closure, though momentum was limited by the absence of Stock Connect, with Mainland China remaining shut until next Thursday. KOSPI outperformed and hit a fresh record high, overlooking stronger-than-expected CPI, with gains driven by surges in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics after both firms partnered with OpenAI under the Stargate initiative. Sentiment was also supported by news that South Korea and the US agreed on a basic security framework.

Top Asian News

• The RBA’s Financial Stability Review said Australia’s financial system remains well positioned to navigate elevated global uncertainty, with the largest risks to stability coming from abroad, including high and rising government debt in major economies, stretched asset valuations and leverage in global markets, and heightened geopolitical and operational risks. The RBA said most households with mortgages are keeping up with repayments and have built savings buffers, many businesses have established financial buffers, and Australian banks continue to maintain high levels of capital and liquidity. It underscored the importance of maintaining prudent lending standards and strengthening operational resilience via the RBA.
• A BoK official said the significant impact of US tariffs on exports has not yet been observed, but effects are expected to become more apparent next year, according to Reuters.
• BoJ's Uchida says Tankan survey showed positive business sentiment as US tariff outlook recedes; BoJ to raise rates if economic outlook is realised.

European bourses are mostly higher as the solid start to Q4 continues, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%. FTSE 100 -0.1% is the main outlier after the healthcare and energy-led gains seen on Wednesday. From a macro perspective, it is very much a case of more of the same as incremental drivers remain light aside from the overhang of the US government shutdown. Sectors mostly firmer, Tech outperforms after the strength on Wall St.; Autos firmer with heavyweight Ferrari supported by a broker upgrade. Luxury also strong after Brunello Cucinelli numbers, supporting peers.

Top European News

• BoE DMP: Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations also remained unchanged at 2.9% in the three months to September.

FX

• DXY is currently lower for a 5th consecutive session. Continued focus on the shutdown, which has trimmed the data docket, as such other prints e.g. the Chicago Fed measure may draw greater attention. DXY has delved as low as 97.53 but is holding above yesterday's trough @ 97.46.
• Euro is a touch firmer after a choppy Wednesday. Specifics very light. EUR/USD is currently contained within yesterday's 1.1715-79 range.
• Sterling also slightly firmer against the UST but relatively even against the EUR. The latest BoE DMP report showed firms year-ahead own-price inflation was unchanged at 3.7%, whilst expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4%. Cable has moved back onto a 1.35 handle but is yet to approach yesterday's best @ 1.3527.
• JPY firmer, with USD/JPY down to a 146.61 low before returning to a 147 handle. Attention on BoJ's Uchida who noted that the Bank will keep hiking rates if the economic outlook is realised.
• Antipodeans both in the green but the Kiwi is currently leading. Specifics light thus far, particularly with China away.

Fixed Income

• JGBs hit overnight by a weak 10yr tap. No followthrough to remarks from BoJ's Uchida thereafter, though his positive lens on the Tankan survey underscores the narrative that a hike at the October meeting is the more likely outcome as things stand.
• USTs contained in a very narrow range. Specifics unsurprisingly light with the US government shutdown still underway. Currently, USTs chop around the unchanged mark in a 112-25+ to 112-30+ band, entirely within but at the upper end of yesterday’s 112-12 to 112-31 parameters.
• EGBs saw a slightly softer start to the day, though within recent parameters. Specifics light aside from supply. Overall, the auctions were slightly soft but still the passing of the morning's docket was sufficient to bring the benchmarks back to earlier highs and marginally firmer, with gains of a handful of ticks in Bunds at best.
• Gilts spent the morning near-enoguh flat into supply. A few updates around the Autumn Budget beforehand, but nothing that shifts the dial. Supply on face value was ok, though the cover was the lowest since 2022.
• Japan sold JPY 2.6tln 10yr JGB; b/c 3.34x (prev. 3.92x), average yield 1.6350% (prev. 1.6120%)

Fixed Income

• Crude spent the morning in a thin c. USD 0.60/bbl bound. However, the complex came under some modest pressure to respective lows of USD 61.22/bbl and USD 64.80/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively, nothing fresh behind the pressure.
• Overnight, a spike to session highs occured around an hour after a more modest move higher on reports in the WSJ that the US is to provide Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia, and are asking NATO allies to provide similar insight.
• Spot gold taking a slight breather from its recent rally, though it remains near the USD 3895/oz ATH into a thinner than usual docket.
• Base metals continue to gain despite the absence of its largest buyer, China. 3M LME Copper extended above USD 10.40k/t during APAC trade, a move that has continued to a USD 10.51k/t peak.
• Goldman Sachs said upside risks have intensified further for their mid-2026 and Dec-2026 gold price forecasts of USD 4,000/oz and USD 4,300/oz respectively, and reiterated that gold remains their highest-conviction long commodity recommendation, according to Reuters.
• Kazakhstan's Energy Minister says they are doing everything possible to implement compensation plan; sees Kazakhstan oil output at 90mln tons in 2026

Geopolitics

• The US will provide Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia, and US officials are asking NATO allies to provide similar support, via WSJ.
• The G7 agreed on the importance of trade measures, including tariffs and import–export bans, to curb Russian revenue, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 7:30 am: Sep Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 13.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep 27 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 218k
• 8:30 am: Sep 20 Continuing Claims, est. 1931k, prior 1926k
• 10:00 am: Aug Factory Orders, est. 1.4%, prior -1.3%
• 10:00 am: Aug F Durable Goods Orders, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
• 10:00 am: Aug F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Aug F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.58%, prior 0.6%
• 10:00 am: Aug F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%

Central Bank Speakers

• 10:30 am: Fed’s Logan Speaks at University of Texas conference
• 2:30 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Fox Business

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

US markets kicked off Q4 as they ended Q3, with the S&P 500 (+0.34%) reaching another record high despite the shutdown noise and an ADP report showing a contraction in private payrolls. At the same time, fresh fears over the US labour market saw Treasury yields decline sharply as investors priced in more rate cuts. Europe also saw an optimistic session, as positive data helped to push the STOXX 600 (+1.15%) to a new record of its own, finally surpassing its previous peak in early March. Remember that German fiscal stimulus started this week and from my experience of talking to investors around the world in recent weeks, people have largely forgotten about the story, so once you see the impact in the data we might be set for further advances in German and European risk assets all other things being equal. 

Meanwhile, the US shutdown remains a huge story, and there’s still no sign of a climbdown from either side. Yesterday the continuing resolution proposal that was earlier approved by Republicans in the House again failed to muster the 60 voters necessary to override the filibuster in the Senate. Just as the previous day, the vote ended five votes short at 55-45 as three Democrats supported the bill while Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky was the lone Republican to vote against. We are unlikely to get another vote today as we have Yom Kippur with the Senate traditionally not sitting given how many of its members celebrate the day.   

In terms of expectations, the current view on Polymarket is that it’ll likely be resolved in the next two weeks, with a 34% prospect of the shutdown lasting beyond October 15. Meanwhile, we heard that the administration was using the shutdown to halt federal funding for infrastructure and energy projects in New York City and more than a dozen Democrat-leaning states.

From a market perspective, the most tangible impact is that we won’t get the weekly jobless claims data today, or the jobs report tomorrow. So that’s led investors to put a lot more focus on the private sector data releases, which are generating an outsize market impact as a result. In fact, yesterday we had the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which as we all know pretty much always comes out two days before payrolls, and isn’t too much of a market mover. But this time around, the print caused a significant reaction, as it underwhelmed at -32k (vs. +51k expected), and it raised fears that the next jobs report (whenever we get it) would disappoint like the last two. So investors dialled up their expectations for rate cuts yesterday, with the amount priced in by the June meeting up a sizeable +7.7bps on the day to 90.7bps. And in turn, front-end Treasuries posted a decent decline, with the 2yr yield (-7.4bps) falling to 3.53%, and the 10yr yield (-5.2bps) falling to 4.10%. We are broadly unchanged in Asia trading.  

In the latest Fed news, the Supreme Court rejected President Trump's demand to immediately remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her post. Cook can thus remain in her post at least until the Supreme Court hears the arguments in the case in January. So that eased some immediate concerns about White House influence over the Fed. 

The ADP release initially weighed on equities, but the S&P 500 again recovered as the day went on to close +0.34% higher. In part that was as the weakness in the ADP report wasn’t echoed elsewhere, and the ISM manufacturing came in broadly as expected at 49.1 (vs. 49.0 expected). New orders disappointed (48.9 vs 50.0 expected) but the employment component surprised to the upside (45.3 vs 44.3 expected) and prices paid fell to an 8-month low of 61.9 (vs 62.7 expected). While most of the S&P 500 were lower on the day, specific sectors helped drive the overall advance. Tech outperformance helped the Mag-7 (+0.61%) to a new all-time high, while the healthcare sector (+3.01%) was the outstanding performer in the S&P. That followed news the previous evening that Pfizer had negotiated a 3-year reprieve on pharma tariffs with the White House, leaving investors more confident that US drugmakers would be able to avoid major levies. Pfizer rose +6.79%, with other major pharma companies including Ely Lilly (+8.18%) and Merck (+7.39%) also seeing outsized gains. 

Over in Europe, there was an even more robust tone, with equities rising across the board. So that saw the STOXX 600 (+1.15%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.03%) both hit new highs, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.41%) moved up to a post-2007 high as well. In part, sentiment was lifted by some robust numbers from the final manufacturing PMIs. So the Euro Area number was revised up three-tenths from the flash print to 49.8, and the German number was revised up a full point to 49.5. 

Alongside the PMIs, the latest Euro Area inflation numbers also settled in line with expectations, which eased fears that the ECB might need to pivot more hawkishly. So the flash CPI print was at +2.2%, and the core CPI print at +2.3%, only modestly above the ECB’s target. In turn, that helped front-end sovereign bonds to rally, with yields on 2yr bunds (-0.9bps) and OATs (-1.2bps ) moving lower, though yields were little changed at the 10yr point (+0.1bps for bunds, -0.4bps for OATs).

Italian bonds outperformed (-0.8bps on 10yr) as Bloomberg reported that the country’s draft budget put the deficit at 3% of GDP already this year, matching the EU limit. If realised, that would be the first sub-3% deficit since 2019 before the Covid pandemic. It also contrasts with the French situation, where even former PM Bayrou’s proposals to reach a 3% deficit by 2029 were unable to pass. So that’s coincided with the Italian 10yr yield falling beneath France’s in recent weeks, and yesterday it closed 0.4bps beneath France’s.

Asian equity markets are rallying this morning with the KOSPI (+3.01%) standing out as the top performer, reaching a record high, propelled by significant increases in Samsung Electronics, which is surging +4.50% to approach a six-year peak, and SK Hynix soaring +10.69% to a record high. This is following their preliminary agreement to supply chips to the artificial intelligence leader OpenAI. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.32%) is also trading significantly higher after resuming trading post holiday helped by a rally in key Chinese internet stocks. Mainland China remains closed. In other markets, the Nikkei (+0.89%) is also climbing along with the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.08%), supported by robust performance in local mining stocks. Meanwhile, trading volumes across the region have remained subdued due to a week-long holiday in mainland Chinese markets. S&P 500 (+0.10%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.19%) futures are also both edging up. 

In early morning data, South Korea’s consumer inflation accelerated in September, rising by +2.1% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the +2.0% forecast, and recovering from a nine-month low of +1.7% recorded the previous month. 

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Logan, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Makhlouf and Villeroy, and BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:22

Low-Speed Collision Between Two Delta Jets At LaGuardia

A low-speed collision between two Delta Air Lines regional jets occurred in the overnight hours on a taxiway at New York's LaGuardia Airport.

*TWO DELTA JETS COLLIDE AT SLOW SPEED AT LAGUARDIA:ABC AFFILIATE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2025

Endeavor Flight 5155 was taxiing for departure when its wing struck the cockpit of Flight 5047, which had just arrived from Charlotte, North Carolina. Flight 5155 was preparing to depart for Roanoke, Virginia.

"We have two CRJs on (taxiway) M that collided," one of the pilots of Flight 5047 told LaGuardia ground controller in recorded audio found on website LiveATC.net. The pilot continued, "Their right wing clipped our nose and the cockpit wind screens."

Delta responded to the incident, saying, "Delta teams at our New York-LaGuardia hub are working to ensure our customers are taken care of after two Delta Connection aircraft operated by Endeavor Air were involved in a low-speed collision during taxi. Delta will work with all relevant authorities to review what occurred as safety of our customers and people comes before all else. We apologize to our customers for the experience." 

The incident occurred at around 9:56 p.m. local time. The pilot in command of Flight 5155 is ultimately responsible for the low-speed collision. No deep dives (yet) from internet sleuths to suggest DEI was involved…

As a reminder, regional airlines are often operated by younger or less-experienced pilots (remember this) who are building flight hours before transitioning to major carriers and larger aircraft, such as the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:20

Boeing Gets Contract To Replace Bunker Busting Bombs The US Dropped On Iran

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Boeing is set to receive a contract worth up to $123 million to replace the massive 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs that the US dropped on Iranian nuclear facilities in June as part of the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

On June 22, US B-2 Spirit bombers dropped 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites, marking the first time the weapon was used in combat. A US submarine also fired Tomahawk missiles in strikes on an Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan.

DoD image

The attack, dubbed "Operation Midnight Hammer," was launched on behalf of Israel. The Bloomberg report said that a Pentagon budget document from August says that funds are being shifted from operations and maintenance accounts to Air Force munitions procurement as "funds are required to replace GBU-57 munitions expended in Operation Midnight Hammer in support of Israel."

Replacing the MOPs is just a fraction of the cost of the war against Iran, as the US used a significant number of interceptors to defend Israel throughout the 12 days.

US officials told The Wall Street Journal that the US fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors during the war, accounting for about one-quarter of the Pentagon’s total stock of the interceptors and costing about $2 billion.

The US military also engaged in its largest use of Patriot missiles to repel the Iranian attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which Iran launched in retaliation for the bombing of its nuclear sites.

Bloomberg previously reported that the Pentagon was planning to spend at least $3.5 billion replenishing weapons it had used defending Israel before the 12-Day War.

Stillframe showing test of GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)

Most of the cost was related to the US defense of Israel when Iran launched an attack in April 2024 in retaliation for Israel bombing its consulate in Damascus.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:00

Medvedev Again Trolls Trump: US Submarines A 'Black Cat In A Dark Room'

Outspoken Russian hawk and firebrand Dmitri Medvedev has not stopped trolling Trump over the US nuclear submarine deployment, and the US President's annoyance over the issue continues to show.

The former Russian president and current Security Council Deputy Chairman has said in fresh remarks tinged with sarcasm that the situation brings to mind the saying about a black cat in a dark room.

"Donald Trump is once again talking about the submarines he moved ‘over to the coast of Russia," this time noting that they are 'totally' undetectable," he wrote on social media.

That's when he joked: "It's hard to find a black cat in a dark room, especially if there is no cat" - suggesting the notion that American nuclear subs are patrolling waters off Russia is a ruse.

AFP/Getty Images

This was an apparent response to Trump's words to a large gathering of US generals and admirals gathered from across the world at Quantico, wherein the US commander-in-chief boasted he had moved "a submarine or two" to the coast of Russia, before saying the word "nuclear" can never be said.

"I call it the N word. There are two N words, and you can't use either of them," he said. All of this hearkens back to the initial very public spat between Trump and Medvedev. To review of the early August exchange:

The day before, Trump had issued an ultimatum to Russia: If it does not agree to a ceasefire by next Friday, August 8, he will impose a package of economic sanctions.

The next day, Medvedev posted on social media, describing Trump’s threat as “a step towards war”. He wrote that Trump was “playing the ultimatum game with Russia”.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump responded: “Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.”

Thankfully it has all so far been confined to social media barbs, and not any clear instance of either side's strategic forces being placed on emergency alert.

The US Navy's submarine fleet moves across the world mostly undetectable, and ideally at least - untraceable. But Medvedev is claiming Trump's boasts concerning a pair of nuclear submarines is empty and without evidence.

NOW - Trump says he's moved "a submarine or two" off the coast of Russia, "it's just lurking." pic.twitter.com/NkJi6iefxB

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) September 30, 2025

However, hopefully he doesn't provoke Trump too much at this ultra-sensitive moment of soaring tensions between Moscow and NATO. Of note is that Trump in his Tuesday speech at Quantico said that the US is about 20 years ahead of Russia in terms of nuclear technology and development.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/02/2025 - 07:15