There's 'Widespread' Belief Among US Officials Israel Can't Eradicate Hamas

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

There is a "widespread belief" among US officials that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of "eradicating" Hamas in Gaza is unattainable, The New York Times reported on Thursday.

Throughout the past seven months, there have been multiple signs that the US doesn’t believe Israel could achieve its goals in Gaza, yet the Biden administration has continued to support the slaughter of Palestinians in the Strip.

via Reuters

In March, the US intelligence agencies released their annual "threat assessment," and it said Israel will face "lingering armed resistance" for "years to come" and that the Israeli military would struggle to destroy Hamas’s underground infrastructure.

The Washington Post also reported in March that the US didn’t think Israel had clear or attainable goals as far back as October. "We never had a clear sense that the Israelis had a definable and achievable military objective," a source familiar with an October 27 Biden administration meeting on the situation in Gaza told the Post.

"From the very beginning, there’s been a sense of us not knowing how the Israelis were going to do what they said they were going to do."

The Times report focused on Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Israel and the difference in messaging from the administration and Netanyahu. Blinken said the US was still opposed to Israel invading Rafah without a clear plan for civilians, but Netanyahu’s message was that an invasion will happen no matter what.

Blinken also called on Hamas to accept Israel’s latest proposal for a hostage deal and temporary ceasefire, but Netanyahu signaled that he wasn’t interested. The Israeli leader vowed to invade Rafah "with or without" a deal with Hamas.

The Times report said US officials were "taken aback" by the timing of Netanyahu’s comment because they think Hamas would only accept a deal if they believed releasing hostages could lead to a permanent ceasefire, which has been the Palestinian group’s demand for months. Netanyahu also told Blinken that he wouldn’t agree to end military operations in Gaza for a hostage deal.

Despite the difference in public messaging, there’s no sign the Biden administration is putting any real pressure on Netanyahu to prevent an invasion of Rafah as US military aid continues to flow. So far, the US-backed Israeli slaughter has reportedly killed 34,596 people, including over 14,000 children, according to the latest numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 11:35

"Massive Fraud": SEC Shuts Down 'Prolific' Auditor BF Borgers, Whose Clients Include Trump Media

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shut down auditor BF Borgers, described by the Financial Times as "one of the most prolific auditors of US public companies," over allegations of "massive fraud" that affected more than 1,500 SEC filings, the agency announced on Friday.

Borgers agreed to a $12 million civil penalty, while owner Benjamin Borgers agreed to pay $2 million to settle the SEC's charges. The company has also agreed to permanent suspensions from practicing as accountants on SEC filings, effective immediately.

According to the SEC, a "significant" number of listed companies will have to switch accountants in the coming days due to the enforcement action.

Clients include Trump Media.

"Trump Media looks forward to working with new auditing partners in accordance with today's SEC order," a spokesperson for Trump's media company told Reuters in an email.

Borgers has also acted for fintech and crypto companies, and many other small issuers, SEC filings show.

According to the SEC, Borgers did not properly prepare and maintain audit documentation, fabricated audit planning meetings, and in some cases simply passed off previous audits for the current audit period.

Of 369 BF Borgers clients whose filings from January 2021 through June 2023 incorporated BF Borgers's audits and reviews, at least 75% incorporated audits that did not comply with the SEC's rules.

According to SEC Enforcement Division Director Gurbir Grewal, "Ben Borgers and his audit firm, BF Borgers, were responsible for one of the largest wholesale failures by gatekeepers in our financial markets."

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 11:15

ISM Services Survey Slumps In April - First Contraction Since 2022 But Prices Are Accelerating

After the disappointing Manufacturing survey data, the signals from the Services side are not great either - even as 'hard' data has improved.

• S&P Global's Services PMI dropped to a five month low at 51.3 (better than the expected/flash at 50.9, but still falling).

• ISM Services PMI was worse, tumbling to 49.4 (from 51.4 and expected to rise to 52.0) - the weakest print (and first contraction) since Dec 2022

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood was worse with Prices Paid rebounding strongly while New Orders and Employment both slowed...

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

"Service sector growth slowed in April to point to a sluggish start to the second quarter for the US economy. Alongside a concomitant cooling in the rate of growth of manufacturing output, the weaker service sector performance means overall business activity grew in April at the slowest rate seen so far this year. At current levels, the PMI indicates that GDP is expanding at a modest annualized rate of approximately 1.5% so far in the second quarter.

"Demand has weakened, as signaled by the first fall in new orders for goods and services for six months, in part a reflection of both businesses and households adjusting to higher costs and the prospect of higher for longer interest rates.

Business optimism has likewise cooled, dropping to the lowest since November, and companies are taking a more cautious approach to staffing levels."

So Prices Paid UP, Orders DOWN, Optimism COOLED

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 10:08

ICC Threatens Action Over 'Intimidation' Tactics As Netanyahu Arrest Warrant Looms

The government of Israel is now essentially in a full diplomatic war with the International Criminal Court (ICC) over the possible impending arrest warrants which could be issued anytime for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his top officials, including the defense chief. 

The back-and-forth rhetoric has grown so heated that the Hague-based ICC has issued a new Friday statement warning against 'intimidation' of the court. While not naming Israel or any specific officials or actions, the statement warns that legal action could be take against those "threatening to retaliate" or else trying to "impede or intimidate" its officials and the world court's work.

ICC Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan: ICC-CPI

The ICC prosecutor’s office said that any threats against the court or its personnel could "constitute an offence against the administration of justice under Art 70 of the Rome Statute."

"The office insists that all attempts to impede, intimidate or improperly influence its officials cease immediately," the statement posted to X continued. It said it rejects any scenario where the court's "independence and impartiality are undermined."

Axios reported Monday that the Israeli government is growing "increasingly concerned" over the possible action, while Walla news has written that Netanyahu is "under unusual stress" over what will be a largely symbolic, albeit still deeply embarrassing reputational black eye for his government at a moment he's facing immense domestic pressure at home to bring back the hostages.

Israel has been warning that an ICC warrant could blow up a hostage deal being mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Additionally Netanyahu has been issuing personal appeals condemning the ICC case which focused on alleged human rights violations, war crimes, and alleged genocide on the part of IDF troops in Gaza.

This unusual ICC response follows on the heels of Netanyahu days ago saying he "expects the leaders of the free world to stand firmly against" any ICC arrest warrants for Israeli government officials.

"We expect them to use all the means at their disposal to stop this dangerous move," Netanyahu said. It's also been widely reported that he personally asked President Biden to pressure the ICC to halt its proceedings related to Israeli war crimes.

Statement of the #ICC Office of the Prosecutor pic.twitter.com/Cw331pMcDm

— Int'l Criminal Court (@IntlCrimCourt) May 3, 2024

Geopolitical analyst Lisa Daftari has noted that "If the ICC eventually charges anyone in Israel, the defendants will probably not see any hearings because it is up to the associated states to make arrests for the court."

However, Daftari has pointed out that "The practical effect of such a measure would be to limit the travel options of any indicted person to countries that did not ratify the Rome Treaty." Russia's Putin currently faces this dilemma, and it will be a new day when Netanyahu faces the same restrictions. This is what the Israeli and US governments are currently lobbying against.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 09:50

Ukraine's Biggest Problem Isn't Weapons, It's Lack Of Fighting Men

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Now that Congress rammed through a huge weapons package for Ukraine, what will Ukraine do with the weapons and how long will they last?

Ukraine’s Real Bottleneck

Ukraine touts Russian casualties, no doubt exaggerated, while Russian published accounts of Russian losses are no doubt understated.

But what about Ukraine’s losses? Those are a military secret.

Despite a full understanding of how bad the situation is in Ukraine, we do know that it’s not a pretty setup. Please consider Ukraine’s Bottleneck.

The main reason why opinion in Washington has shifted over Ukraine is the assessment that the country will lose the war because it does not have enough troops on the ground.

We saw a story in Bild yesterday that would confirm this story line. Of all German newspapers, Bild has been the strongest supporter of Ukraine, so we don’t think we are dealing with a case of news selection bias. We know about shortages. This story goes further. Ukrainian commanders are saying that the bottleneck is no longer western weapons, but people who can use them.

We should not extrapolate that information. They may overstate their case to force a change in policy. For all we know, Russia may have the exact same problems, or worse.

Many young Ukrainian men have left the country to avoid the draft. President Volodymyr Zelensky has been hesitant to order a general draft of all Ukrainians. His government recently suspended consular services for Ukrainian males aged 18 to 60 years old, and reduced the age for the draft from 27 to 25 years. There is clearly more they can do. Only 15% of its male population is in active service.

But what made us listen up is the assertion about bottlenecks. It quoted one brigadier general as saying that he used to think that the lack of artillery shells was the biggest problem, but now it was the lack of human resources. The question is whether the general mobilization has been delayed for too long. The problem is not only the headline numbers. If you started a general mobilisation today, you would still not have the numbers of people trained to use the weapons.

Bild quoted Roderich Kiesewetter, a CDU defence expert and a former Bundeswehr general, as saying that the best-trained soldiers in Ukraine had been killed or injured, and those still active have been deployed without a break for two years. Exhaustion is becoming a factor in this war. He said Ukraine was lacking a predictable recruitment strategy. Another expert, from the Munich Security Conference, also believes that the right response is to start the draft immediately.

We are more sceptical. Young Ukrainians men who live abroad have means to resist a draft. EU countries cannot just deport them without recourse to legal processes. Nor will all EU countries want to do that. An army of draft dodgers who experienced the comfortable life abroad, and who are recruited against their will, are not going to win this war. Zelensky could lower the age of the draft to 18. But you would be training an essentially new army from scratch in the middle of a war.

So then, we ask, what is the strategy? That is also a question for the western countries that support Ukraine, who don’t have any strategy whatsoever. 

No US Strategy, No US Goals

No strategy and no goals are two things I have been writing about for months.

The US has no goals or strategy, except perhaps perpetual war.

Ukraine’s Goal

Zelensky has a ridiculous goal, 100% of all territory lost including Crimea.

And Ukraine will badger the US and Europe forever to achieve them. So how much are we willing to pay?

Biden is unwilling to say. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is unwilling to say, and he cast the deciding vote for a massive $61 billion weapons delivery to Ukraine.

The total to date is $175 billion. But where does that money really go?

What Is in the Ukraine Aid Package

The Center for Strategic and International Studies explains What Is in the Ukraine Aid Package

Q4: Where will this money be spent?

A4: The notion of “aid to Ukraine” is a misnomer. Despite images of “pallets of cash” being sent to Ukraine, about 72 percent of this money overall and 86 percent of the military aid will be spent in the United States. The reason for this high percentage is that weapons going to Ukraine are produced in U.S. factories, payments to U.S. service members are mostly spent in the United States, and even some piece of the humanitarian aid is spent in the United States. The major element of funding going to Ukraine is the economic support to the Ukrainian government, which the World Bank handles.

Is it any wonder why Johnson was pushed so hard by military intelligence to vote for the deal? Here’s another interesting Q&A.

Q7: How long will the $61 billion last?

A7: Until funding started to dry up, the United States had been spending about $5.4 billion per month as a result of the war. At that spending rate, $61 billion would last for nearly a full year. Indeed, the original intention was that the funding would last through fiscal year 2024 and run out in September or October. However, half the fiscal year has passed, and the money may last until about January 2025 as a result. Because most of the appropriations are multiyear, the administration can use the money into FY 2025.

That suits the political calendar. The administration will not want to send another aid request to Congress in the fall when the presidential election campaign is in full swing. If the Biden administration wins reelection, it will send a request to Congress either during the lame duck session or, if Democrats do well, after the new Congress takes office. If the Biden administration loses, it may send a request anyway to make a political statement, not expecting Congress to take action. The Republicans would want to wait until the new president took office.

How Does This End?

I can tell you how this will end, and I have already several times: A negotiated settlement in which Ukraine loses territory in return for being allowed to join NATO, perhaps with some restrictions.

No one will be happy, especially those who would prefer perpetual war. But it won’t be perpetual war because Ukraine will eventually run out of men.

Zelensky may be willing to kill them all, but can he stay in power long enough to do that?

Mike Johnson Goes Full Neocon

On April 18, I commented Mike Johnson Goes Full Neocon, Nikki Haley May as Well Be House Speaker

“I really do believe the intel and in the briefings that we’ve gotten,” Johnson said. “I believe Xi [Jinping] and Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil,” warning that Russia could march west across Europe if not stopped now. “To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys.”

That is a false dichotomy.

One does not have to make a choice between sending bullets or men to Ukraine. One could easily do neither or both.

Sending bullets does not preclude further stupidity such as sending troops.

No Skin in the Game

Since the critical shortage is really manpower, not weapons, I have a suggestion: Mike Johnson and everyone who voted for this package should be forced to serve in Ukraine.

Skin in the game should be a prerequisite for all of these war fundings.

Lindsey Graham Tells Ukraine to Force More Young Men Into War With Russia

On March 19, I commented Lindsey Graham Tells Ukraine to Force More Young Men Into War With Russia

I’ve Changed My Mind on Aid to Ukraine

I now support aid to Ukraine if Senator Graham and all the Senators who support aid personally lead the charge.

I suggest we put Graham on horseback with a sword and a Ukrainian flag to lead the other Senators into battle.

What is the Best Way to Help Israel and Ukraine?

On April 16, I asked What is the Best Way to Help Israel and Ukraine?

See if you agree with my answer.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 09:35

'Buy All The Things' - Poor Payrolls Sends Rate-Cut Hopes Soaring

'Bad' news is back to being good news for markets as a disappointing rise in payrolls pushed rate-cut expectations higher. 2024 is now fully pricing in two rate cuts and 2025 an additional three rate-cuts...

Source: Bloomberg

As Academy Securities' Peter Tchir writes, this report should be very good for bonds.

Establishment survey of 175k.

The Household report showed an increase of 949k full time jobs (while part time jobs declined by 914k). Great news even as the overall net total was “only” 25k.

The weaker data is in line with what we’ve been seeing in other reports. If anything, NFP still looks high, relative to other bits of employment data we get (most noticeably the JOLTS quit and hire rates, which are below where they were at any time in 2019 or 2018).

Average hourly earnings declined a smidge. Hours worked down a touch. Both good for those looking for Fed cuts.

The participation looks unchanged, buy maybe the labor force overall grew, as we saw a small uptick in the Unemployment Rate to 3.9%. Far from a bad number, but moving in the right direction if you are hoping for Fed cuts.

Normally as you parse through the data, you find some mixed signals, but so far, the report seems to be universally, good enough for the economy AND good enough for the Fed.

Who Wins?

Those still clinging to two cuts as their base case (I’m in that camp). Though markets are pricing in Sept/Dec rather than June/July (which I might have to move on).

The market has pulled forward expectations for the first cut to September...

Bond yields. Though with the 10 year already down to 4.47% I’d start reducing position size. I still like 4.4% to 4.6% as a “range” and think deficits and supply will weigh on the longer end of the yield curve once the initial wave of optimism passes.

Maybe stocks? The initial reaction if for stocks to do well. Makes sense if stocks still really seemed to move with bonds. As we’ve seen, time and again, the correlation between low yields and higher stocks is not particularly strong. This number is “good enough” that both stocks and bonds can rally, but what will hold and what will rise further from here?

I think it is a good opportunity to buy value, small cap and banks. Toss in some commercial real estate. I think we will see relief spread to those sectors at the expense of sectors with valuation concerns.

The dollar is tumbling...

Gold and crypto are rallying...

While on Fox Business yesterday, with Charles Payne, he told me not to tell people I’m invested in China (jokingly at the end of the segment) I can’t resist showing this chart. The Nasdaq 100 really hasn’t done much since the end of January, and while this chart doesn’t capture the rally in futures this morning, I don’t think we are out of the woods yet, unless it can retake the 50 day moving average.

Good luck, but I don’t think this data will stand the test of time as helping all markets.

While it is strong enough to keep any sort of “economic slowdown” noise very low, that noise will start increasing, as NFP finally joins a list of other jobs data not moving in the right direction.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 09:17

Come For The Education, Stay For The Amputation: Iran Offers Free Scholarships To US Students

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Now this could truly be educational. Students protesting on our campuses have been offered free scholarships at Shiraz University in Fars. So, while Northwestern has reached a settlement with protesters to give scholarships to Palestinian students and positions to Palestinian faculty, U.S. protesters can now go to Iran for their education.

Mohammad Moazzeni, head of Shiraz University told media that “students and even professors who have been expelled or threatened with expulsion can continue their studies at Shiraz University and I think that other universities in Shiraz as well as Fars Province are also prepared [to provide the conditions].”

This could be the single most transformative educational experience of their lives. Of course, Iran is better known for floggings than free speech.

Iran is particularly prone to such contradictions like executing homosexuals while denying that there are any homosexuals in Iran or objecting to the treatment of protesters in the West while jailing, beating and killing protesters.

Warning: vegan meals are not available at Iranian protests. Instead, it has ordered the arrest and killing of writers and artists while holding such fun events as a cartoon competition on the Holocaust.

While expungements are not a common feature of the criminal justice system, it does have unique elements like judicially ordered blindings. Likewise, where else can you go where a criminal defendant was ordered to be executed by being tied into a burlap bag and thrown down a cliff with sharp rocks?

Some universities clearly have space after students were arrested for protesting the death sentence given a rapper. That includes Shiraz University where the Iranian regime’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) arrested students for protests.

The good thing is that U.S. students are already covering up their faces. Iranian women have faced arrest for being photographed without hijabs.

Students like Khymani James, the Columbia organizer declaring that “Zionists don’t deserve to live” have the right viewpoint but may find that the Iranian officials are less supportive in other respects.

Just a year studying abroad in Iran is worth a lifetime of education.

So Iranian universities are making the ultimate pitch to come for the free education and stay for the free amputations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 09:05

Futures Gain Boosted By Apple's Blowout Buyback, Dollar Drops Ahead Of Payrolls

US stock futures pointed to further strength on Wall Street ahead of the April jobs report after solid earnings and a record buyback announcement from Apple As of 8:00am, S&P futures rise 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.6% thanks to a 6% surge in Apple in premarket trading.  The dollar weakened for a third day, while Treasuries were steady. The US 10-year yield is down about 9 basis points this week at 4.57%, its first weekly drop since March, after Powell struck a less hawkish tone than feared. Traders have also pulled forward expectations for the Fed’s first full interest-rate cut by a month to November.

In premarket trading Apple jumped .2% after the company posted stronger-than-expected sales last quarter and predicted a return to growth in the current period, sparking optimism that a slowdown is easing. Amgen soared 14% after its CEO said he was “very encouraged” by early results from a study of the company’s experimental obesity drug, MariTide. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Alignment Healthcare gains 9% after the company forecast revenue for the 2Q that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Ardelyx (ARDX) soars 18% after the pharma company’s Xphozah and Ibsrela drugs drove a strong 1Q revenue beat, which Jefferies expects will boost confidence in the company’s management.
• BigBear.ai (BBAI) falls 14% the AI software company reported a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss.
• Block (SQ) rises 7.2% after Jack Dorsey’s payments technology company forecast adjusted Ebitda for the full year above analysts’ estimates.
• Cloudflare (NET) sinks 13% after the cloud security firm provided a 2Q revenue forecast that fell slightly short of estimates.
• Fortinet (FTNT) falls 8% as the cybersecurity company reported a miss in first-quarter billings due to weakness in Europe.
• FuboTV (FUBO) rises 8.4% after the internet television service provider reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• ImmunityBio (IBRX) gains 8% on a deal with the Serum Institute of India for Bacillus Calmette-Guerin supply.
• Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) rises 3% after the operator of Ticketmaster reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
• OneSpan (OSPN) rises 15% after the software services company reported first-quarter results that are seen as strong.
• Open Text (OTEX) slips 13% after the application software company gave an outlook that is seen as weak, prompting a downgrade.
• WideOpenWest (WOW) climbs 17% after shareholder Crestview says it and DigitalBridge submitted a joint, preliminary non-binding proposal to buy the cable service provider for $4.80 per Class A share.

Traders will be watching this morning's jobs report for clues about renewed slowing in the economy (full preview here). Non-farm payrolls data is the next big trigger for markets after Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell effectively laid concerns about a potential rate hike to rest. The forecast gain of 240,000 jobs would be the weakest since November. 

“NFP gains have likely slowed, but to a level that has remained strong,” wrote Credit Agricole CIB strategists led by Sébastien Barbé. “The ‘higher for longer’ narrative should remain well in place, but is largely priced in by the market at this stage.”

If the Labor Department’s report shows fewer than 125,000 jobs were added in April, and the average hourly earnings rose more than 0.4% from the previous month, that would be a “stagflation risk-off print,” according to Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett. On the other hand, if payrolls were to rise by more than 225,000 and average hourly earnings by less than 0.2%, it would be interpreted as “Goldilocks back on and risk back on,” he wrote.

European stocks have tracked a tech-driven rally in Asia after Apple forecast a return to sales growth and announced the largest stock buyback plan in US history. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.4% as it looks to snap a three-day losing streak. While tech stocks led gains, pharmaceuticals lagged with Novo Nordisk A/S retreating more than 5% on competition concerns.  Here are the most notable European movers:

• Henkel jumps as much as 6.6%, the biggest gainer on the Stoxx 600 benchmark, after the German chemicals firm boosted its organic sales and adjusted Ebit margin forecasts for the full year
• Credit Agricole shares rise as much as 4.2% to a fresh six-year high after the French bank delivered a big net income beat in the first quarter, according to analysts
• Novonesis shares rise as much as 5.7%, the most since Oct. 26, after the Danish company reaffirmed its organic revenue forecast for the full year, rebounding from a recent slump
• JCDecaux shares jump as much as 13% to the highest in more than a year after the outdoor advertising firm set a second-quarter revenue growth target that were ahead of expectations
• Trainline gains as much as 9% after the online ticket retailer posted an earnings beat and upgraded its 2025 Ebitda forecast. It also announced a new £75 million share buyback program
• Siemens Energy gains as much as 3.3% after Deutsche Bank raised the recommendation on the German renewable energy company to buy from hold, citing its newly-listed peer GE Vernova
• Hensoldt, Renk and Rheinmetall gain as Hauck & Aufhaeuser initiates coverage of the defense contractors at buy, seeing quality in the sector and noting their resilient business model
• Novo Nordisk falls as much as 4.9% after Amgen’s CEO said he was “very encouraged” by early results from a study of the US company’s experimental obesity drug, MariTide
• Danske Bank falls as much as 5.7%, the most since March, after the Danish lender’s NII for the first quarter was weaker than expected, which also weighed on overall revenues in the period
• Aurubis drops as much as 12%, the most since September, as UBS cuts its recommendation on the copper smelting firm to sell from buy, saying material market tightness is likely to persist
• Daimler Truck declines as much as 7.3%, the most since July 2022, after the German truckmaker warned that it was seeing an increasingly difficult environment in its key European market
• Bpost falls as much as 9%, the most since January, after the courier service released results that missed expectations on Ebit as M&A costs weighed, according to Jefferies

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained with the Hang Seng Index surging 1.5% to cap a ninth straight session of gains, the longest winning streak since 2018. Chinese technology giants Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the top contributors to the advance.

In FX, the dollar declined 0.2% against all its Group-of-10 peers, with the Bloomberg dollar index heading for a 0.9% loss this week as traders pulled forward expectations for the first Fed rate cut to November ahead of today’s jobs report. its worst since early March. The yen strengthened as traders mulled news that authorities had likely spent about $23 billion in their second suspected currency intervention this week; Japan markets were shut for a local holiday. The Norwegian krone climbed after the nation’s central bank said tight policy may be needed somewhat longer, as it held the key interest rate steady at 4.5%, in line with expectations.

Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the yield curve flatter ahead of the April jobs report, holding most of the past two days’ steepening rally. 7- to 30-year yields are lower by ~1bp with shorter tenors little changed; 2s10s spread flattens ~2bp, unwinding less than half of Thursday’s steepening move. 5s30s spread remains near top of Thursday’s range at ~15bp. 10-year yield 4.57%, slightly outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector.

Oil prices are flat, with WTI trading near $79 a barrel. Spot gold falls 0.2% to around $2,300/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and ISM services (10am). Fed members’ scheduled speeches include Chicago’s Goolsbee (10:30am and 7:45pm) and New York’s Williams (7:45pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,106.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 504.33
• MXAP up 0.7% to 177.18
• MXAPJ up 0.8% to 546.84
• Nikkei little changed at 38,236.07
• Topix little changed at 2,728.53
• Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 18,475.92
• Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,104.82
• Sensex down 1.4% to 73,569.19
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,628.97
• Kospi down 0.3% to 2,676.63
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.54%
• Euro up 0.1% to $1.0741
• Brent Futures up 0.2% to $83.80/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,298.75
• US Dollar Index little changed at 105.22

Top Overnight News

• Four Chinese generative artificial intelligence start-ups have been valued at between $1.2bn and $2.5bn in the past three months, leading a pack of more than 260 companies vying to emulate the success of US rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic. The newly minted unicorns — Zhipu AI, Moonshot AI, MiniMax and 01.ai — have gained significant backing from a largely domestic pool of investors and are fighting to hire the best talent to develop the most popular AI products. FT
• Across China and among the global scientific community, Friday’s launch of a Chinese mission to collect samples from the moon’s far side has been hailed for its potential for a scientific breakthrough. But in the U.S., lawmakers and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration are closely watching the expedition with trepidation: as a milestone in a rival’s campaign to build a base on the moon’s most strategic location. WSJ
• Norway’s central bank leaves rates unchanged (as expected) and says “the policy rate will likely be kept at today’s level for some time ahead”. RTRS
• Britain’s Conservative Party suffered striking early setbacks on Friday in local elections that are viewed as a barometer for how the party will perform in a coming general election and a key test for the embattled prime minister, Rishi Sunak. NYT
• The OPEC+ group of countries could extend their production cuts beyond June if demand fails to improve, creating upside risks for oil prices. RTRS  
• The NBA is targeting $76 billion in TV rights over 11 years, three times its current deal, people familiar said. Disney and Amazon have agreed to the framework, while Warner Bros. is racing Comcast for a third package. BBG
• Dated Brent has seen record trading volumes in both physical and derivative markets since WTI Midland was added to the grades that determine its price. It’s eliminated decades-long concerns over the benchmark’s viability amid shrinking North Sea production. BBG
• AAPL +6% beat ... “guided up LSD. Upside on Services, China revs, iPhone revs .. $110bn BUYBACK .. Revenues $90.33bn vs cons $90.3b (-4.8% y/y). iPhone revenues $45.96bn vs cons $45.76bn (-11% y/y). Services revenues $23.87bn   vs cons $23.28bn (+11.4% y/y. China revenues $16.37 (-8% y/y) vs cons $15.9bn. Inventories $6.232bn (vs $6.5bn last qtr). EPS $1.53 vs cons $1.50. GS Trading

Earnings

• Apple Inc (AAPL) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 1.53 (exp. 1.50), Revenue 90.75bln (exp. 90.01bln); to buy back additional 110bln of shares and boosts quarterly dividend 4% to 0.25/shr, Revenue breakdown: Products 66.89bln (exp. 66.95bln), iPhone 45.96bln (exp. 45.76bln), Mac 7.45bln (exp. 6.79bln), iPad 5.56bln (exp. 5.91bln), Wearables, home and accessories 7.91bln (exp. 8.29bln), Service 23.87bln (exp. 23.28bln), Greater China revenue 16.37bln (exp. 15.87bln). Shares +5.9% in pre-market trade
• Amgen Inc (AMGN) Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.96 (exp. 3.87), Revenue 7.45bln (exp. 7.44bln); Still sees share buyback up to 500mln. Shares +14.9% in pre-market trade
• Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 20.39 (exp. 14.06), Revenue 4.40bln (exp. 4.25bln). Shares +1.9% in pre-market trade

A more detailed look at global market courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks took impetus from Wall St where equities extended on post-FOMC gains and futures were also lifted by Apple's earnings beat, but with upside capped in the region amid key market closures including in Japan and Mainland China.  ASX 200 traded higher as real estate led the outperformance in the rate-sensitive sectors. Hang Seng extended its rally after having recently entered a bull market and following stronger GDP data.

Top Asian News

• China May Day railway travel reached a record high of around 20.7mln trips, according to Xinhua.
• US FCC said roughly 40% of US telecom companies cannot replace Huawei or ZTE equipment in US networks without additional government funding.

European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.2%) are entirely in the green, and with price action fairly muted as participants await the US Employment report at 13:30 BST / 08:30 EDT.  European sectors hold a strong positive tilt, with Media taking the top spot, lifted by post-earning gains in JCDecaux (+12.5%) and UMG (+2.5%). Healthcare is found at the foot of the pile, dragged lower by Novo Nordisk (-4.5%), after recent Amgen updates. US Equity Futures (ES +0.3, NQ +0.6%, RTY -0.2%) are mixed, with clear outperformance in the NQ lifted by pre-market gains in Apple (+5.7%) after its earnings.

Top European News

• Norges Bank maintains its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected; the data so far could suggest that a tight monetary policy stance may be needed for somewhat longer than previously envisaged. Click here for more details. Norges Bank Chief Bache says Norges has not decided when to cut rates.
• UK opposition Labour party wins Blackpool South by-election, taking the seat from the Conservatives in a blow for PM Sunak, according to BBC. It was also reported that the Labour party gained Hartlepool from no overall control in the local elections and they also claimed a win for Thurrock Council which the Tories won last year but had moved to no overall control after defections. Thus far, only around 30 of the 107 councils have declared but the swing as it stands is to Labour at the expense of the Conservatives. As a reminder, there have been reports in recent days that a bad result at the local elections could see MPs put in a no-confidence vote in PM Sunak in the next week or so.
• ECB's Lane said given the lags in transmission, the tightening effects from past interest rate hikes are still unfolding, while he noted expectations of future inflation normalising further and that leaving nominal rates unchanged implies a mechanical increase in real interest rates. Lane said moving from one meeting to the next meeting and from one projection round to the next projection round allows for the accumulation of further data that can help inform the rate decision. Furthermore, Lane said inflation has declined more quickly than expected and noted the more the data validates inflation coming back to the target, the more they will be able to remove restrictions this year and next year.
• ECB's Stournaras said three ECB rate cuts are more likely this year and the latest euro-area GDP figures were a positive surprise, according to comments made to Liberal cited by Bloomberg.
• German Engineering Orders -17% Y/Y in March (Domestic -23%; Foreign Orders -15%), Jan-Mar orders -13% (Domestic -16%; Foreign -12%), according to VDMA

FX

 

• DXY is modestly lower on NFP day and within 105.16-37 confines after dipping under yesterday's trough (105.29) in APAC hours as with the next downside level the 11th April low (105.03) before the round figure.
• Sideways trade for the EUR against the Dollar amid a lack of drivers, whilst dovish ECB commentary continues with ECB's Lane yesterday. EUR/USD trades within a narrow 1.0725-45 parameter at the time of writing.
• Yen stands as one of the G10 outperformers despite a lack of fresh headlines following this week's double suspected intervention. USD/JPY trades in a 152.76-153.75 intraday band with potential support at the 12th April low (152.59).
• Antipodeans are modestly firmer and holding on to recent spoils and remained afloat amid the constructive mood but with price action quiet amid a lack of drivers. AUD/USD briefly topped its 100 DMA (0.6581).
• NOK came under some modest pressure as policy settings were maintained by Norges Bank but then appreciated slightly on the line that "the data so far could suggest that a tight monetary policy stance may be needed for somewhat longer than previously envisaged."

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat/incrementally softer with the curve flattening on the margin as the post-FOMC steepening settles into NFP and Fed speak. Currently within a busy 114'25-155'04 range.
• Bunds are firmer but only modestly so with overnight action sparse on account of Japan's holiday and EZ-specific drivers limited thus far; docket very much focused on US NFP & ISM Services alongside a handful of Fed speakers.
• Gilt price action has been in-fitting with EGBs after Thursday's session of outperformance. UK specifics light before Monday's bank holiday and then a packed week incl. the BoE on Thursday.

Commodities

• Crude is modestly firmer intraday but consolidating in the grander scheme after futures were relatively flat yesterday following a choppy session as participants await developments on the Israel-Hamas front after reports noted of "positive" spirit in talks. Brent July trades in a USD 83.77-84.15/bbl range.
• Precious metals are subdued but contained ahead of key US data and amid the absence of updates on the geopolitical front. XAU sits in a narrow USD 2,297.85-2,308.80/oz parameter.
• Base metals are mostly firmer across the board, but more so consolidation after yesterday's weakness, with sentiment not helped by the absence of Chinese markets.

Geopolitics

• Israeli air strike hit a security building outside the Syrian capital of Damascus, according to a security source cited by Reuters, while Syrian state media later reported that 8 soldiers were injured in the Israeli airstrike on the outskirts of Damascus.
• Hezbollah announced it targeted the headquarters of Israel's 91st Division in the Branet barracks with rocket-propelled grenades, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched attacks on targets in Israel with Arqab-type cruise missiles from Iraqi territory which was the first attack targeting Israel's Tel Aviv by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, according to a source in the group.
• Israel National Security Minister Gvir called on PM Netanyahu to remove Defence Minister Galant from office as he is not fit to continue his work as the defence minister.
• Israel's Foreign Minister said Turkish President Erdogan is breaking agreements by blocking ports for Israeli imports and exports.
• Russian military personnel entered an air base in Niger that is hosting US troops which follows a decision by Niger's Junta to expel US forces from the country, according to Reuters citing a US official. However, US Defense Secretary Austin later commented that Russians do not have access to US forces or equipment in Niger and they will continue to watch the presence of Russian forces in Niger.

US event calendar

• 08:30: April Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.7%, prior 62.7%
• 08:30: April Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
• 08:30: April Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.0%, prior 4.1%
• 08:30: April Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 08:30: April Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 5,000, prior zero
• 08:30: April Change in Private Payrolls, est. 195,000, prior 232,000
• 08:30: April Unemployment Rate, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
• 08:30: April Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 240,000, prior 303,000
• 09:45: April S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 51.0, prior 50.9
• 09:45: April S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.0, prior 50.9
• 10:00: April ISM Services Index, est. 52.0, prior 51.4

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 08:23

Yields More Exposed To A Downside Miss In Payrolls

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

US yields are at the margin more exposed to a lower-than-expected payrolls release today after Powell’s pushback on a rate hike this week. Nonetheless, leading indicators are pointing to an inflection higher in payrolls growth in the coming months.

Yields are off their recent highs, but are still prone to falling further if payrolls disappoints. My fair value model for 10-year yields, which uses global central-bank rate policy, the yield curve, oil prices and the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, suggests a 10-year yield ~40 bps lower.

That potential short-term pull to fair value is reinforced by Powell skewing the distribution away from further rate hikes at this week’s Fed meeting. Yields are still set to rise in the medium and longer term (in a yield curve bear steepening), but in the shorter term the risks are tilted to lower yields.

As mentioned, today’s payrolls could be such a catalyst if it is weak. However, it’s worth bearing in mind that the nearer-term outlook for payrolls (the next few months or so) is turning up.

First, temporary-help jobs growth is rising and typically leads annual payrolls growth by about six months.

Second, unemployment claims inflected lower around the end of last year, and this also leads rises in payrolls by about three-to-six months.

There have been concerns raised about claims data, specifically fewer people taking up the benefit as it is insufficient, or new migrants who are not eligible for it. The ratio of those on claims to the number of unemployed based on the household survey is indeed low.

I have argued that the “truth” of the state of the US labor market probably lies in between the household and establishment (i.e. payrolls) surveys.

If we then also look at the claims recipient ratio based on an approximate estimate for the number of unemployed from the payrolls data, we can see it is higher than the household-survey implied ratio (which also happened in the late 1990s and early 2000s).

So in between the two surveys, the recipient ratio does not look abnormally low.

There may well be (and quite likely is) several issues with the household and establishment surveys and the claims data, but that is what the market is going to trade for now, despite their imperfections. If payrolls growth does start rising and claims stay low, that likely means rising yields again.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 08:20

Sony And Apollo Make $26 Billion All Cash Offer For Paramount

It looks as thought the every-day Paramount buyout saga could finally be coming to a close, with a all-cash, $26 billion offer made by Sony and Apollo, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apollo and Sony, led by Sony Pictures CEO Tony Vinciquerra and Apollo partner Aaron Sobel, presented a preliminary, nonbinding offer on Wednesday, the Journal reported on Thursday in an exclusive.

In this proposal, Sony would hold a major majority share, while Apollo would have a minor stake and no operational control. This bid comes amid a tumultuous sale process by Paramount's main shareholder, Shari Redstone, which saw a shareholder uprising and the resignation of CEO Bob Bakish along with four directors.

Paramount's board has been considering a merger with Skydance Media, led by David Ellison, and entered exclusive talks last month. The Wall Street Journal reported that with the exclusivity ending Friday, Paramount and its owner, Redstone, may start discussions with other interested parties.

Shareholders are upset over the potential Skydance merger, which favors Redstone with a premium for her voting share, while others would get shares in the merged entity.

Skydance recently upped its proposal, offering $3 billion to improve Paramount's finances, a hike from $1.5 billion, and reduced payment to Redstone's National Amusements.

Apollo previously made a $26 billion bid for Paramount, with $12 billion as equity and debt assumption, but concerns about financing put the offer in doubt, as also reported by The Wall Street Journal.

As for why the offer for Paramount is so tricky, Bloomberg's Matt Levine laid it out earlier this week, writing out the key questions behind the company's complex share structure:

• Paramount has about 655 million shares outstanding.

• Of those 655 million shares, roughly 41 million are Class A shares, which have voting rights; the rest are Class B shares, which don’t.

• The Class A stock trades at $22.37 per share as of Friday’s close; the Class B trades at $11.91. That gives you a combined equity market capitalization of about $8.2 billion.

• Figure you’d have to pay a premium to buy the whole company. Let’s say the total equity value would be $12 billion, roughly a 50% premium to the current price.

• But notice that you could take over the company — control the shareholder vote, elect new directors, vote for a merger, etc. — with just 21 million Class A shares. That would represent a majority of the Class A voting shares, but only about 3.2% of the total shares.

• In fact, 31.5 million Class A shares are owned by National Amusements, a company controlled by Shari Redstone, the daughter and successor of former Paramount mogul Sumner Redstone. Those shares represent about 77% of the voting stock, but less than 5% of the total stock.

• If you want to acquire Paramount, how much should you offer to pay for Redstone’s Class A stock? For the other Class A stock? For the Class B stock?

You can read his full analysis here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 07:45

Arizona Senate Approves Repeal of Near-Total Abortion Ban

Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Arizona Capitol building in Phoenix on April 11, 2024. (Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo)

Arizona’s near-total abortion ban will be repealed just weeks after the state’s Supreme Court ruled it enforceable.

The Arizona House narrowly passed the repeal on April 24 as three Republicans joined with Democrats to approve the measure.

On May 1, the state Senate followed suit in a 16–14 vote—but not before several disappointed senators had the opportunity to air their grievances.

“What we’re actually voting on is death,” state Sen. Anthony Kern said, chiding the members of his Republican party who voted with Democrats in support of the repeal.

“The Democrat Party stands and runs on death. The Republican Party stands and is supposed to run on life.”

State Sen. Sonny Borrelli, meanwhile, objected to the fact that the bill was never sent to a committee, nor was any time allotted for debate or amendments. And during one particularly emotional moment, state Sen. Justine Wadsack recounted her own tragic loss of a child by miscarriage.

“God chose when that heartbeat was going to stop,” Ms. Wadsack said, tears streaming down her face. “It is not my place as a senator to determine when a child’s heart stops beating.”

The abortion ban prohibits all abortions in Arizona except those performed to save the mother’s life. It was initially enacted in 1864, before Arizona was a state, though it was later recodified by the Legislature in the late 1970s.

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, has promised to sign the repeal once it reaches her desk, though it will not be effective until 90 days after the Legislature adjourns. At that point, a 2022 law limiting abortions to 15 weeks of pregnancy will become the state’s prevailing law.

In the meantime, however, the abortion ban is slated to take effect on June 27.

Proponents of the repeal, pointing to the ban’s pre-statehood origins, had argued that it was outdated and inconsistent with the state’s more recent laws.

“I don’t want us honoring laws about women, written during a time when women were forbidden from voting because their voices were considered inferior to men,” state Sen. Eva Burch said May 1.

For decades, the law was blocked by a permanent injunction. But a two-year court battle, prompted by the reversal of Roe v. Wade, culminated in the Arizona Supreme Court’s bombshell ruling on April 9.

Although the court initially stayed the law’s enforcement for two weeks, an agreement in a related case pushed back its effective date.

The Arizona vote came on the same day that a six-week abortion limit in Florida took effect.

That law includes limited exceptions for situations involving rape, incest, human trafficking, or a serious threat to the mother’s physical health. But as with the Arizona ban, the law has been the subject of much controversy.

As the Florida law took effect, abortion advocates took to social media to decry what they perceived to be the erosion of women’s rights in the Sunshine State.

“Today, Florida is putting the health of millions of women at risk,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul posted on social media. “It’s clear: Anti-choice extremists will stop at nothing to deny women their right to make their own health care decisions.”

Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, likewise charged that the law had rolled back women’s rights “by 50 years,” and President Joe Biden called the situation a “nightmare.”

Florida and Arizona are expected to play a key role in deciding the next president, and abortion will be on the ballot in both states come November.

While President Biden has aligned himself with abortion advocates, former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has shied away from what he’s deemed to be a losing issue for the GOP.

The former president, who claims to be pro-life, has said he believes abortion to be a states’ rights issue, as opposed to a federal issue. In taking that stance, he denounced both the Arizona and Florida laws as too restrictive.

“It’s the will of the people—this is what I’ve been saying. It’s a perfect system,” he said on April 10.

“For 52 years, people have wanted to end Roe v. Wade, to get it back to the states. We did that—it was an incredible thing, an incredible achievement. We did that, and now the states have it, and the states are putting out what they want. It’s the will of the people.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 07:20

These Are The Best US Companies To Work For (According To LinkedIn)

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti lists the 15 best U.S. companies to work for in 2024, according to LinkedIn data.

LinkedIn ranked companies based on eight pillars: ability to advance, skills growth, company stability, external opportunity, company affinity, gender diversity, educational background, and employee presence in the country.

To be eligible, companies must have had 5,000 or more global employees, with at least 500 in the country as of December 31, 2023.

Data and Highlights

Financial institutions dominate the ranking of the best U.S. companies to work for in 2024, with JP Morgan Chase & Co. ranking first.

J.P. Morgan has a program that offers opportunities for candidates without a university degree. In fact, in 2022, 75% of job descriptions at the bank for experienced hires did not require a college degree.

Meanwhile, Deloitte and Amazon offer a variety of free training courses, including in AI.

Moderna includes in its employee package benefits to help avoid employee burnout — from subsidized commuter expenses and pop-up daycare centers, to wellness coaches.

Mastercard offers flexible work availability, with 11.5% remote and 89% hybrid options.

It’s also interesting to note that only Amazon and Alphabet made the cut from the ‘Magnificent Seven’ companies (Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla).

See more about the best companies to work for in this infographic, which covers a separate ranking from Glassdoor.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 06:55

Norway’s Cash Flow From Offshore Fields Crashes Due to Low Natural Gas Prices

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Norway saw cash flow from its stakes in oil and gas fields nearly halve in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, as natural gas prices slumped and gas consumption in Europe was below expectations, said state company Petoro, which manages field holdings of Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer.

In the first quarter of the year, Petoro delivered a cash flow of $5.4 billion (60 billion Norwegian crowns) from the State's Direct Financial Interest (SDFI) to Norway. The cash flow was $5.14 billion (57 billion crowns) lower than in the first quarter of 2023.

After a couple of years of abnormally high natural gas prices, the achieved gas price in the first quarter was 51% lower than in the same quarter last year, Petoro said on Thursday.

“The Continent experienced a relatively mild winter, which meant that gas consumption was lower than expected. This is an important factor that has affected price and revenues,” Petoro CEO Kristin Kragseth said, adding “The cash flow from our production is still high from a historical perspective.”

Production from the state portfolio in Norway’s offshore fields hit in the first quarter the highest level since the first quarter of 2018, Petoro said.

The state firm is working closely with operators and license partners to continue developing new and profitable production with the lowest possible emissions. Activity on the Norwegian shelf will remain high over the next few years, Petoro says.

Earlier this week, Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland received the field development plan for a new North Sea oil and gas field that would be tied back to an existing platform and is expected to cost $572 million (6.3 billion crowns).

Oil and gas companies plan to boost exploration activity and spending offshore Norway this year as Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer looks to maintain production and raise exports to the rest of Europe.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 06:30

Visualizing Global Gold Production In 2023

Over 3,000 tonnes of gold were produced globally in 2023.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu lists the world’s leading countries in terms of gold production. These figures come from the latest USGS publication on gold statistics (published January 2024).

China, Australia, and Russia Produced the Most Gold in 2023

China was the top producer in 2023, responsible for over 12% of total global production, followed by Australia and Russia.

Gold mines in China are primarily concentrated in eastern provinces such as Shandong, Henan, Fujian, and Liaoning. As of January 2024, China’s gold mine reserves stand at an estimated 3,000 tonnes, representing around 5% of the global total of 59,000 tonnes.

In addition to being the top producer, China emerged as the largest buyer of the yellow metal for the year. In fact, the country’s central bank alone bought 225 tonnes of gold in 2023, according the World Gold Council.

Estimated Global Gold Consumption

Most of the gold produced in 2023 was used in jewelry production, while another significant portion was sold as a store of value, such as in gold bars or coins.

• Jewelry: 46%
• Central Banks and Institutions: 23%
• Physical Bars: 16%
• Official Coins, Medals, and Imitation Coins: 9%
• Electrical and Electronics: 5%
• Other: 1%

According to Fitch Solutions, over the medium term (2023-2032), global gold mine production is expected to grow 15%, as high prices encourage investment and output.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 05:45

Jim Jordan Drops "Smoking Gun" Over White House 'Lab Leak' Suppression At Facebook

Rep Jim Jordan (R-OH) has released several new pieces of previously unseen information revealing what Elon Musk called a "smoking gun" in regards White House pressure on Facebook to censor the lab leak theory of Covid-19.

First, Jordan shares a text message from Mark Zuckerberg to Sheryl Sandberg, Nick Clegg and Joel Kaplan - the company's highest-ranking executives at the time, in which he asks if Facebook can tell the world that "the [Biden] WH put pressure on us to censor the lab leak theory?" - hours after Biden accused Facebook of "killing people."

On July 16, 2021, Mark Zuckerberg texted Sheryl Sandberg, Nick Clegg, and Joel Kaplan.

Three of the highest ranking executives at Facebook.

Could Facebook tell the world that “the [Biden] WH put pressure on us to censor the lab leak theory?" pic.twitter.com/B1Wno3ayTW

— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) May 1, 2024

 Clegg responded that the Biden White house is "highly cynical and dishonest," while Sandberg said that they were being scapegoated because the White House wasn't hitting its vaccination numbers.

Facebook felt that they had been combatting alleged misinformation—aka censoring Americans—all year! pic.twitter.com/HQxQKrwX5z

— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) May 1, 2024

Facebook felt, in fact, that they had been 'combating misinformation,' (aka censoring Americans) all year.

Since February 2021, the company had been censoring the “Wuhan lab leak theory” “in response to … tense conversations with the new [Biden] Administration.” pic.twitter.com/lB9wg7tlDe

— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) May 1, 2024

Then in late May of 2021, Facebook finally stopped removing content regarding the lab leak theory - though they did demote it. When employees told Zuckerberg about the reversal and explained why they censored the lab leak theory in the first place, Zuckerberg replied that this is what happens when Facebook "compromises [its] standards due to pressure from an administration."

These documents show the CHILLING EFFECT government coercion has on free expression.

Facebook knew the White House wanted them to censor, but they didn’t exactly know what or how much.

— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) May 1, 2024

According to Elon Musk, this is a "Smoking gun First Amendment violation."

Smoking gun First Amendment violation

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 2, 2024

We know the feeling!

Oh yeah, that https://t.co/w1mYccdhLK pic.twitter.com/Y6v64yAy6J

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 2, 2024

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 05:33

Rebuilding Bombed-Out Gaza Could Take Into Next Century: UN

Gaza will need rebuilding on scale not seen since World War 2, the United Nations has said in a new report which seeks to assess the immense scale and scope of damage after almost seven months of war.

The report released by the UN Development Program (UNDP) said that Gaza needs "approximately 80 years to restore all the fully destroyed housing units" and that rebuilding all that's been destroyed in the Strip could even drag into the next century.

Via AP

"Unprecedented levels of human losses, capital destruction, and the steep rise in poverty in such a short period of time will precipitate a serious development crisis that jeopardizes the future of generations to come," UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner said in a statement.

The report tallies that some 80,000 homes have been fully destroyed while at least 370,000 have been damaged. The UN also indicated there's a possibility that rebuilding could be completed by 2040, but only if "construction materials are delivered five times as fast as in the last crisis in 2021" and if there war were to immediately stop.

According to more via Reuters, "In a scenario where the war lasts nine months, poverty is set to increase from 38.8% of Gaza's population at the end of 2023 to 60.7%, dragging a large portion of the middle class below the poverty line, the report said."

One UN official referenced in international reports said that Israel's bombardment of the Strip has resulted in a "moonscape" of destruction.

As of Thursday, Gaza's Health Ministry says that 34,596 mostly civilians have died since Israel launched its offensive in retaliation for the Hamas terror attacks, while over 77,000 have been wounded. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have tallied some 13,000 militants killed during the operation. Each side disputes these casualty figures.

Meanwhile, at a moment famine threatens to take many more lives, the Pentagon says it is nearly completion of the $320 million floating pier which will get maritime food aid into Gaza.

The Financial Times details, "Hundreds of US troops have spent weeks building the structure that aims to allay the dire humanitarian crisis in the strip, with US naval vessels ferrying specialized equipment to a point about two miles offshore where the aid ships from Cyprus are supposed to dock."

Interestingly, some officials have criticized this as another mere public spectacle (akin to the prior air drops) and a "waste" of time and funds, per FT:

But international aid groups warn that the JLOTS plan could divert attention from these more efficient land routes and, in any event, would not resolve the more serious problem of damaged roads and lawlessness that has hampered distribution inside the enclave. “It’s a wasteful distraction,” a senior UN official, who requested anonymity, said of the new pier. “There are roads, there are border crossings — there’s [already] aid waiting outside Gaza.”

Israel has been widely accused of blocking much of the vital food aid which has been held up at border crossings. Jordan has also newly accused Israeli settlers of destroying inbound aid under the watch of IDF soldiers...

According to a statement by Jordan's Foreign Ministry, some Israeli settlers reportedly assaulted two Jordanian humanitarian aid convoys en route to Gaza. Despite the attacks, both convoys successfully reached their destinations in the conflict-affected Gaza Strip, having… pic.twitter.com/zeOWf7s9ih

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) May 2, 2024

As for the Biden administration, it continues to face mounting criticisms that it is aiding and abetting the mass destruction and death in the Gaza Strip by keeping the weapons and billions flowing to Tel Aviv, and with no conditions attached. And given the Netanyahu government is still poised for a ground assault on Rafah, the scorched earth policies look to continue.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 02:45

Every Conservative Party In Europe Needs To Prepare For Mass Censorship, Warns Flemish MEP

By Thomas Brooke of RMXnews.com

In an exclusive interview with Remix News, Gerolf Annemans, the Vlaams Belang MEP and president of the European Identity and Democracy group, warns that even greater censorship of conservatives is just around the corner, and tells right-wing groups what they must do to ensure their message continues to be heard

Conservative political parties across Europe should begin contingency planning for the inevitable time in the near future when right-wing platforms are the victims of mass censorship by an increasingly desperate liberal establishment, a senior Belgian nationalist lawmaker told Remix News at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Hungary last week

“Globally, we expect that we have to seek alternatives. That’s why we now organize visiting homes on a very large scale. We are shifting toward means that give us the opportunity to reach the electorate even if we are cut off on social media,” said Vlaams Belang MEP Gerolf Annemans.

“We have new means to talk to the people. People want to hear us. So, the people are open to hear and to listen to us and we adapt to the situation. We expect social media to be shut down for normal political communication,” the MEP warned.

Vlaams Belang is a Flemish nationalist party that proposes independence for the region of Flanders from the rest of Belgium. It has had considerable success on social media in recent years, particularly on Facebook where it has amassed 620,000 followers, helping the party push its core messages and propel itself to the top of the polls in the region. Furthermore, the party is the most popular party with young people, and a key element of that popularity is the party’s efforts on TikTok and Facebook, including substantial monetary investments into the platforms.

The right may be forced off social media

However, this success, which many other right-wing parties have enjoyed on social media, will inevitably result in a backlash. Annemans warned that a major crackdown was coming against those across the European Union whose views deviate from the typical left-wing mainstream and that conservative parties need to find workarounds, including face-to-face meetings with the public.

In fact, Annemans, who is also the current president of the European grouping Identity and Democracy (ID), believes radical measures to suppress conservative mouthpieces are just around the corner.

“We invest where we can and we use the means that we have, but of course that cannot rely [on social media] for more than a few years because we see what the European Union is doing with the Digital Services Act,” he said.

The Digital Services Act is the European Union’s attempt to regulate social media, placing requirements on digital platforms to monitor content and remove that deemed to fall short of being “socially desirable.” The vague definitions of “harmful content” and “disinformation” could result in tech platforms acting in an overzealous manner in order to avoid financial penalties imposed by the European Commission for failing to comply with the regulation.

Annemans accused the European Commission of giving Thierry Breton, the French commissioner leading the social media crackdown, “the means that are part of a Soviet dictatorship model to intervene with the political communications of opponents. Macron’s opponents, but in Belgium, of course, the opponents of the left-liberal regime.”

The draconian measures have led to Vlaams Belang looking at how else it can spread its message and is reverting to the traditional political campaigning method of door-to-door canvassing.

“Globally, we expect that we have to seek alternatives. That’s why we now organize visiting homes on a very large scale. We are shifting toward means that give us the opportunity to reach the electorate even if we are cut off on social media,” Annemans said.

“We have new means to talk to the people. People want to hear us. So, the people are open to hear and to listen to us and we adapt to the situation. We expect social media to be shut down for normal political communication.”

One beacon of hope for the future of social media has been U.S. billionaire Elon Musk’s acquisition of X, formerly known as Twitter, but Annemans is skeptical the platform can stay immune from the rising tide of regulation and censorship.

“There is a little change with the coming up of Elon Musk on Twitter. But of course, as you know, Twitter is not the only thing, but they’re also on it. He’s a sign of hope and even he, we will have to wait and see. Will he prevail? I’m not even sure that he will be able to keep up this free zone,” the senior MEP warned.

Conservatives are also being targeted offline

It isn’t just social media where conservatives are being suppressed, and a typical example of the censorship of political opponents was evident in Flanders itself just a week before Remix News spoke with Annemans, namely at the National Conservatism conference in Brussels where an order by the local mayor to shut down the event was only overturned by judicial intervention.

“It was a mistake,” the lawmaker said about the attempts to silence political opponents in the de facto EU capital. “I, sadly enough, have to tell you that this is a usual occurrence for Vlaams Belang. We have existed for almost 40 years and have always had trouble when organizing meetings in Brussels or in the region of Brussels.

“There is always trouble with communists, socialists, mayors, etc. So for us, it’s a daily struggle, unfortunately. They thought they could treat the conference like they usually do with us and label the conservatives attending as fascists and racists, but they didn’t realize that they would become world news within a few hours.

“As soon as they saw that, they got phone calls from even the Belgian prime minister himself and had to pull the brakes,” Annemans explained.

He predicted the National Conservatism conference would not endure the same problem again because the liberals had their “fingers burned” but believes that his own party will continue to be stifled by the country’s establishment when the world’s eyes aren’t monitoring the situation.

“They will continue to do so with Vlaams Belang. This is not a democracy. Belgium is not a democracy. That’s what I said during my speech. Don’t trust Belgium, don’t trust the Belgian kingdom.”

How does Vlaams Belang move forward?

Despite its difficulties, the party continues to go from strength to strength and is garnering considerable support from young people in Flanders. Annemans, the party’s former president, explained why he stepped down to enable the party to appeal to the next generation.

“I’m not on top of the list anymore. I pulled back because I’m 65 years old and a wise man. I pulled back from the federal parliament as a group leader after more than 25 years. I pulled back as a party leader for Tom Van Grieken and I pulled back as our lead candidate for the European elections.

“I’m a man who believes in the rejuvenation of a political party. If you don’t do that, you die politically. And that’s why I’m not surprised to see that under the younger leadership of the party, the younger people are attracted by the party. Our ideas are modern. We represent a new time, the new era, and the old powers that be will have to pull back, because here we are, and we are here with the younger generations on top of it.”

He believes his party will continue to grow in popularity among the indigenous Belgian population the more the country experiences radical demographic change.

Asked whether it was accurate that 62 percent of the Brussels population comprises non-EU nationals, Annemans replied, “No doubt.

“What we see is a radicalization of the Muslim population which changes the cultural image of the city. The Western civilization is reducing every day to a non-existent part of the Brussels cultural environment.

“There is a bubble around the European Parliament and European institutions, a bubble of a few thousand Eurocrats, and then there are the Muslim surroundings of the rest of the city. What we expect to happen if we don’t integrate Brussels into a more Flemish approach of the future, what we fear will happen, is that it will become the first Muslim-governed capital in Europe.”

More in the full interview at RMXnews.com

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/03/2024 - 02:00

COVID-19 Linked To 'Alarming Rise' Of Rare And Highly Lethal Fungal Infection

Authored by Megan Redshaw, J.D. via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

(Freepik/Shutterstock)

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an alarming rise of an aggressive and highly fatal secondary fungal infection among those with active or recovered COVID-19.

Research suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the overuse of immunosuppressive COVID-19 treatments such as corticosteroids and antibiotics, and the global pandemic response made people more susceptible to coinfections such as COVID-19-associated mucormycosis (CAM).

Mucormycosis, also known as black fungus, is an opportunistic fungal infection that typically affects the sinuses, lungs, and brain. It is caused by a group of molds commonly found in the environment. Before COVID-19, these fungi rarely caused infection because of low virulence, but the second wave of COVID-19 brought tens of thousands of reported cases. Even the Omicron variant, which was generally attributed to mild COVID-19, has been linked to lethal mucormycosis infections in the United States and Asia.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are several types of mucormycosis:

• Rhinocerebral mucormycosis is an infection of the sinuses that can spread to the brain and is most commonly diagnosed in people with diabetes or in those who have had a kidney transplant.
• Pulmonary mucormycosis is the most common type of mucormycosis, mainly affecting people with cancer or those who have had organ or stem cell transplants.
• Gastrointestinal mucormycosis affects the digestive tract and is more common among children and young adults.
• Cutaneous mucormycosis is the most common form of infection among those without weakened immune systems. It occurs when the fungi enter through a cut, scrape, or surgical incision in the skin.
• Disseminated mucormycosis is where the infection gets into the bloodstream and spreads to the brain and other organs. The mortality rate with this type of mucormycosis is 96 percent.

According to a 2022 paper published in Vaccines, mold spores that cause mucormycosis are found in soil, leaves, or decaying matter. These spores can be dispersed in dust particles and gain entry into the human body through the respiratory tract, skin, or a weakness in the mucosal barrier. Once inside the body, the fungal spores can germinate and multiply, leading to infections such as cutaneous necrotizing fasciitis and disseminated mucormycosis.

 The symptoms of mucormycosis vary depending on the patient, their underlying medical conditions, and the organs affected by the infection. Early symptoms may include nasal pain, vision loss, headache, fever, blackish nasal discharge, facial pain on one side, and mouth swelling. The infection primarily affects the nose, sinuses, lungs, eyes, and brain but can disseminate through the blood to other areas of the body.

According to a 2023 paper published in Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, mucormycosis strikes patients within 12 to 18 days after COVID-19 recovery, and nearly 80 percent require surgery. A delayed or untreated diagnosis can result in a mortality rate as high as 94 percent.

COVID-19-Associated Mucormycosis Is a ‘Worldwide Phenomena’

In a 2022 review published in The Lancet, researchers analyzed 80 cases of COVID-19-associated mucormycosis from 18 countries, including eight cases from the United States, and found mucormycosis infection can be a serious complication of severe COVID-19, especially for those with diabetes and hyperglycemia, or high blood sugar.

Additionally, the authors noted that systemic corticosteroid treatment can reduce mortality in people with severe COVID-19, but the treatment, combined with immunological and other clinical factors, can also predispose patients to secondary fungal diseases like mucormycosis. This particular infection is associated with high morbidity and mortality, even in those with mild COVID-19 cases. The same is true for COVID-19 patients who received intensive antibiotic treatment.

Of the 80 cases analyzed by researchers, 74 patients were hospitalized for COVID-19 after receiving a mucormycosis diagnosis. In six cases, patients had COVID-19 before hospitalization for mucormycosis-associated symptoms—four of whom were hospitalized for COVID-19 within one to three months before a mucormycosis diagnosis.

Researchers identified 59 patients with rhino-orbital cerebral disease, 20 with pulmonary disease, and one had gastrointestinal mucormycosis. With cerebral mucormycosis, the fungus initially invades the nasal cavity and paranasal sinuses, presenting similarly to acute sinusitis. It can then lead to angioinvasion, where tumor cells get through blood vessel walls and cause blood clots. The infection rapidly spreads to orbital and brain sites and is associated with high morbidity and mortality.

Nearly 50 percent (39 patients) died. The median survival time from the day of the mucormycosis diagnosis was 106 days for rhino-orbital cerebral disease and only nine days for patients with pulmonary mucormycosis. Among survivors, 46 percent (19 patients) lost their vision.

The researchers noted several underlying health conditions among the patients with mucormycosis in addition to COVID-19, including uncontrolled or poorly controlled diabetes, hypertension or high blood pressure, chronic kidney disease, and cancer. Those with diabetes were more likely to have rhino-orbital mucormycosis and mild to moderate cases of COVID-19. Those without diabetes were more likely to have other manifestations of the infection and severe COVID-19. Researchers found that pulmonary mucormycosis almost exclusively occurred in the ICU setting.

The Lancet paper’s corresponding author, Dr. Martin Hoenigl, is an associate professor of translational mycology at the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Medical University of Graz, Austria, and the current president of the European Confederation of Medical Mycology.

“Our study outlines that COVID-19-associated mucormycosis, although more prevalent in parts of the world that have traditionally higher mucormycosis rates due to higher levels of environmental exposure (e.g., India, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, China), is a worldwide phenomenon,” Dr. Hoenigl told The Epoch Times in an email.

“Our study has been performed early during the COVID pandemic before the extent of the COVID-19 associated mucormycosis crisis in India was recognized/came into the public focus, and raises attention to this serious, often deadly complication that can be very difficult to diagnose and requires aggressive treatment for a chance of successful outcome,” he said.

Numerous countries observed a sudden increase in CAM cases in 2021 during the second wave of the pandemic. India, a “hot spot” for the deadly infection, typically diagnosed 50 cases of mucormycosis each year but had already observed 28,252 cases as of June 2021. The number of mucormycosis cases has been increasing since.

Deadly Fungal Infection More Common With COVID-19

Dr. Hoenigl told The Epoch Times that mucormycosis is more common with COVID-19 than other infectious diseases due to specific risk factors that emerged with the pandemic and its management, as well as specific immunological mechanisms that predispose patients with severe COVID-19 to developing the condition.

“In terms of clinical risk factors, the increased population of undiagnosed or uncontrolled diabetes (driven by reduction of routine healthcare services during the early COVID pandemic) was an important driver of COVID-19 associated mucormycosis, as was overuse of systemic corticosteroids for COVID-19 treatment that happened in some countries where steroids were available for purchase over the counter, and at the same time, there was a lack of availability of supplemental oxygen,” Dr. Hoenigl said.

“In terms of immunological mechanisms, conditions such as hyperglycemia, steroid overuse, and high levels of iron and ketone bodies, but also COVID-19 itself via the virus-induced endoplasmic reticulum stress cascade are upregulating the expression of glucose-regulated protein 78 (GRP78), which, besides acting as a cofactor in viral entry, binds to spore-coating CotH3 invasin on the fungal surface and favors invasion of nasal epithelial cells by mucorales, resulting in rhino-orbital cerebral mucormycosis,” he explained.

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is a large structure within a cell that performs many functions, including calcium storage, protein synthesis, and lipid metabolism. GRP78 plays a significant role in regulating the ER. It is often upregulated in patients with COVID-19, which predisposes people to getting mucormycosis.

GRP78 helps regulate the ER’s stress response, can form a complex with the spike protein and the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to encourage entry and infection of SARS-CoV-2, and acts as a host receptor that allows molds that cause mucormycosis to enter cells and cause disease.

“There are other important immunological mechanisms as well that explain how severe COVID-19 can predispose patients to develop mucormycosis,” Dr. Hoenigl added.

Other Studies Identify Mucormycosis Risk Factors

In a 2021 review published in the Journal of Infection and Public Health, researchers found that hyperglycemia, impaired immunity, acidosis, raised ferritin—which is often indicative of higher iron levels, inflammation, or infection—glucocorticoid therapy, and COVID-19-specific factors were implicated in the pathogenesis of CAM.

In a 2022 study published in Cureus, researchers followed 62 patients with cerebral mucormycosis for up to 12 weeks to evaluate the risk factors, symptoms, and impact of various interventions on the disease outcome. All participants reported being symptomatic with flu-like illness during the two months preceding their diagnosis, with 58 of the 62 subjects testing positive for COVID-19 and 54 of the 58 patients receiving treatment.

“COVID-19 patients are more susceptible to opportunistic fungal infections due to the immune dysregulation caused by iatrogenic immunosuppression (via corticosteroids or undefined antibiotic treatment), uncontrolled diabetes mellitus, use of invasive or noninvasive ventilation, and other pre-existing conditions,” the paper’s authors wrote.

The researchers found that COVID-19 and diabetes mellitus were significant risk factors for developing mucormycosis. Common signs and symptoms of mucormycosis often appeared within a few weeks of COVID-19, although neurological symptoms were either absent or appeared later. The most common initial symptoms included ptosis—a drooping eyelid—or severe headache.

The median time between COVID-19 infection and the first noticeable symptom of mucormycosis was 16 days. The mean time between the first symptom of mucormycosis and the first neurological symptom was 19 days. The most common initial neurological symptom was hemiparesis—a weakness or inability to move one side of the body.

The study found that 18 (29 percent) patients were symptomatic for mucormycosis even before the resolution of their COVID-19. At the end of 12 weeks, only 18 patients had completely recovered without any residual symptoms, while 19 had persistent symptoms.

Of the 62 subjects, 53 required surgical intervention, eight patients needed their eyes extracted, 21 patients died, 37 survived, and four were lost at follow-up. The higher-than-expected survival rate was attributed to the study occurring in a hospital facility with access to prompt antifungal treatments.

In a January review of 20 papers on mucormycosis and COVID-19, researchers discovered numerous fungal coinfections in COVID-19 patients, 0.3 percent of which were related to mucormycosis.

The researchers attributed CAM to hyperglycemia from previously existing diabetes or excessive use of steroids, increased ferritin levels due to the “inflammatory cascade” initiated by COVID-19, immunological and inflammatory phenomena that occur with SARS-CoV-2 infection, immunosuppression from steroid use or other therapies, germination of fungal spores due to reduced white cell counts in those with COVID-19, and hypoxia—or insufficient oxygen levels which promote growth of the fungus.

Researchers also found that fungal infections were greater in critically ill COVID-19 patients, those requiring mechanical ventilation, and those hospitalized for more than 50 days.

According to the paper, medical management of the disease includes antifungal treatments and surgical debridement of the associated lesions. This is challenging for COVID-19 patients because many are given immunosuppressive therapies, such as steroids, and withdrawing immunosuppressive medications used to treat COVID-19 is part of the treatment for mucormycosis. They further suggest using hyperbaric oxygen therapy for hypoxia and acidosis.

To prevent mucormycosis in those with COVID-19, researchers suggest taking a detailed medical history to assess risk factors, using a controlled steroid regimen, sterilizing water in humidifiers, halting excessive antibiotics, and controlling blood sugar.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/02/2024 - 13:35

Biden Calls US Allies Japan & India 'Xenophobic': "They Don't Want Immigrants"

President Biden chose a strange moment to lash out at allies and humiliate them, given his administration is busy trying to build international consensus against Russia as it continues the war in Ukraine, and on sensitive flashpoint issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict.

On Wednesday Biden called Japan and India 'xenophobic' during off-camera remarks at a campaign fundraiser in D.C. He included these longtime US allies in the controversial statement alongside Washington rivals and enemies China and Russia.

President Joe Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol last year, via Reuters.

He said all of these countries are unwelcoming to migrants ultimately "because they are xenophobic." Leaders in Japan and India are without doubt blistering with outrage.

"This election is about freedom, America and democracy. That’s why I badly need you. You know, one of the reasons why our economy is growing is because of you and many others. Why? Because we welcome immigrants," the president began.

"The reason — look, think about it. Why is China stalling so badly economically? Why is Japan having trouble? Why is Russia? Why is India? Because they’re xenophobic."

And he continued to pile on: "They don’t want immigrants. Immigrants are what makes us strong. Not a joke. That’s not hyperbole, because we have an influx of workers who want to be here and want to contribute," he added.

The criticism of Japan comes at the very moment Tokyo and Washington are deepening their defense cooperation in regional waters, with an eye on countering Chinese influence and maritime expansion. Yet Biden just lumped Japan and China together in the devastating criticism.

But Japan seems to be doing just fine in comparison to the United States on a socio-economic level. Anyone who has traveled to Japan in the last number of years has likely witnessed the phenomenon of streets and cities that are so safe that 8-year old children can wonder freely and no one will give it a thought.

Pot, meet kettle...

Violence is exceedingly rare in Japan. The murder rate is so small that is barely registers.

Similarly, its crime rate has continued to plummet in recent years, leaving some police departments with little to do https://t.co/4X8h7UzYu9 pic.twitter.com/xKyhF463G8

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) August 1, 2019

As for India, one very obvious reason they are not opening the flood gates of immigration (assuming there are even many foreigners actually seeking to enter and settle in the highly population dense south Asian country to begin with), is that they have a struggling economy and over 1.4 billion people to look after.

Recently, President Biden hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (in early summer) and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio - with the latter visiting the Oval just last month. Both were treated to state dinners, and of course Biden didn't have the guts to tell these key leaders to their faces that their countries were 'xenophobic'. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/02/2024 - 13:15

"We Have To Have Law And Order": Trump Lays Out Plan For Second Term In TIME Interview

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump (L) takes the oath of office as his wife Melania Trump (C) holds the bible and his son Barron Trump (R) looks on, on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol, on January 20, 2017. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

In an in-depth interview with TIME magazine, former President Donald Trump laid out his agenda for a second term should he retake the White House in 2025 following the election later this year.

The wide-ranging interview, held over two days at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Beach, Florida, with a follow-up phone interview, was the cover story for the magazine titled “If He Wins.”

The interview covers all of the big issues in the 2024 election, ranging from border security and immigration to economic policy, abortion, and foreign affairs.

President Trump also touched on the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol breach and the related court cases, as well as the legal issues he faces.

Immigration, Border Policy

In a transcript of the interview with TIME’s national politics reporter Eric Cortellessa, President Trump said on day one of his second term he would take aggressive action over the illegal immigration crisis.

President Trump plans to initiate a vast deportation operation, citing unsustainable numbers of illegal immigrants, expressing a desire to replicate Dwight Eisenhower’s mid-20th century mass deportations.

President Trump said he plans to do this by using local law enforcement as well as the National Guard when necessary.

“When we talk military, generally speaking, I talk National Guard,” President Trump said, according to the transcript. “But if I thought things were getting out of control, I would have no problem using the military, per se. We have to have safety in our country. We have to have law and order in our country. And whichever gets us there, but I think the National Guard will do the job.”

Regarding housing illegal immigrants in detention facilities or even expanding the nation’s stock of detention facilities, he said it would likely not be necessary due to his policy of mass deportations but did not rule it out if needed.

If local police departments did not want to cooperate, President Trump said the best option to get them to comply would be to incentivize their cooperation.

“Well, there’s a possibility that some won’t want to participate, and they won’t partake in the riches, you know,” he said in the interview. “I want to give police immunity from prosecution because the liberal groups or the progressive groups ... that ... want to leave everybody in ...[S]anctuary cities are failing all over the place, and I really believe that there’s a pent-up demand to end sanctuary cities by people that were in favor of sanctuary cities, because it’s just not working out for the country.”

He added he didn’t believe that his proposals were “bold” but rather “common sense” and that he would uphold any court decisions regarding his policies.

Economy

President Trump is advocating for significant tariffs, especially against China, to protect U.S. industries and jobs.

He said that he didn’t believe that additional tariffs would amount to another tax on Americans and that he didn’t believe it would lead to higher inflation, noting his belief that higher tariffs against China under his first administration were successful.

“So how did it cost us if we had such a good economy,” President Trump asked in response to a question about economists saying his tariff policy cost jobs and lost hundreds of billions. “Everybody admits it. If we didn’t do that, we would have no steel industry right now. They were dumping steel all over this country. And I put a 50% tariff on steel. It was gonna go higher. And the people that love me most are businesses, but in particular, the steel industry. They love me because I saved their industry.”

He said he believed that those tariffs did not and would not lead to businesses passing on higher costs to American consumers.

“I actually think that the country that is being taxed makes less,” President Trump said. “I think what happens is you build. What happens to get out of the whole situation is you end up building, instead of having your product brought in from China, because of that additional cost, you end up making the product in the United States.”

President Trump said that some countries are very tough on the United States when it comes to tariffs.

“[China] charges us 100%,” President Trump said. “But they charge us much more than that. India charges us more than that. Brazil charges us what—Brazil’s a very big, very big tariff country. I ask people, who are the worst to deal with? I’m not going to give that to you because I don’t want to insult the countries because I actually get along with them. But you'd be surprised. The E.U. is very tough with us.”

Foreign Policy

President Trump said that he would not rule out placing conditions on aid to Israel, but aimed to have the Israel-Hamas conflict resolved quickly.

“I think that Israel has done one thing very badly: public relations,” President Trump said. “I don’t think that the Israel Defense Fund or any other group should be sending out pictures every night of buildings falling down and being bombed with possibly people in those buildings every single night, which is what they do.”

He said his record and support of Israel was clear and that his record on being tough with Iran was clear, despite noting that he had a “bad experience” dealing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“Look, there’s been no president that’s done what I’ve done for Israel. When you look at all of the things that I’ve done, and it starts with the Iran nuclear deal. You know, Bibi Netanyahu begged Obama not to do that deal. I ended that deal.”

He also brought up Iran in relation to its role in funding Hamas, the terrorist group that attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

“During my term, there were stories that Iran didn’t have the money to give to any, there was very little terrorism,” President Trump explained. “But we had no terror ... and we got rid of ISIS 100%. Now they’re starting to come back.”

The former president also said that Mr. Netanyahu “rightfully has been criticized for what took place on October 7.”

President Trump said that the United States would support Israel militarily if Iran and Israel were to go to war, although he suggested that the recent attack by Iran on Israel was a “ceremonial attack,” given that it was widely known about beforehand.

He added, “I gave them [Israel] Golan Heights,” and that he was responsible for having the U.S. Embassy moved to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv and recognized the former as Israel’s capital.

On NATO, President Trump criticized European countries for insufficient defense spending and said NATO was fine as long as European countries paid their fair share, but he still did not believe NATO would come to the aid of the United States if necessary and as required by the treaty.

Jan. 6, Election Integrity

President Trump criticized the justice system as biased and discussed potential pardons for individuals allegedly involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach.

“It’s a two-tier system,” President Trump said. “Because when I look at Portland, when I look at Minneapolis, where they took over police precincts and everything else, and went after federal buildings, when I look at other situations that were violent, and where people were killed, nothing happened to them. Nothing happened to them. I think it’s a two-tier system of justice. I think it’s a very, very sad thing. And whether you like it or not, nobody died other than Ashli [Babbitt].”

President Trump said that he “tried to stop the attack” and that his rhetoric was peaceful and patriotic, placing blame on then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser, a Democrat, for turning down his offer of “10,000 soldiers” during the “very dramatic and horrible period” on Jan. 6 after the Capitol was breached.

Concerning political violence after this November’s election, President Trump said it was not something he was worried about happening.

“I think we’re gonna have a big victory,” President Trump added. “And I think there will be no violence.”

In response to his legal woes, as he has said in press conferences after his court appearances in New York City the past few weeks, he said that the prosecutions against him are unfair and driven by a corrupt legal system on behalf of President Biden.

To those prosecuting him, he did not say he would go after them using the Department of Justice if re-elected, rather he said, “We are going to have great retribution through success. We’re going to make our country successful again. Our retribution is going to be through success of our country.”

When asked about appointing a special prosecutor to investigate President Biden if he were to be re-elected, he said it would depend on what the U.S. Supreme Court says about presidential immunity in his own case, which is currently before the court.

“Look, a president should have immunity,” President Trump said. “That includes Biden. If they’ve ruled that they don’t have immunity, Biden, probably nothing to do with me, he would be prosecuted for 20 different acts, because he’s created such.”

As far as going after his political opponents, he said that’s currently what’s happening with him.

Abortion

Regarding potential federal legislation on abortion, President Trump expressed confidence that such measures would not garner the required 60 votes in the Senate. He stressed that the issue should be left to states to determine, as evidenced by recent legislative actions in conservative-leaning states like Ohio and Kansas.

When asked about the Life at Conception Act and enforcement of the Comstock Act, President Trump deferred to states’ prerogatives, refraining from committing to specific positions. He hinted at forthcoming statements on related matters.

President Trump declined to offer a personal opinion on women’s access to abortion pills and the enforcement of laws prohibiting their mailing, indicating an intention to address these issues soon.

Regarding potential state-level penalties for obtaining abortions after bans, President Trump reiterated his stance that states should decide such matters, emphasizing the diversity of approaches among states.

When queried about Florida’s upcoming abortion referendum, President Trump refrained from disclosing his voting intentions, reiterating his belief in the importance of states making their own determinations on such matters.

He emphasized a focus on policies that help women and families, referencing the acceptance of his stance on in vitro fertilization by Republicans and recent state legislation affirming it.

“I’ll be doing it over the next week or two,” he said. “But I don’t think it will be shocking, frankly. But I'll be doing it over the next week or two. We’re for helping women, Eric. I am for helping women.”

Other Details

President Trump discussed his past decision to invoke a minimum ten-year sentence for desecrating monuments, which he felt effectively deterred such actions. President Trump stated he would use the National Guard rather than the military to address protests if necessary, such as Black Lives Matter protests in 2020.

President Trump also acknowledged a perceived anti-white bias in the United States, critiquing the Biden administration for its policies and expressing concern over discrimination against various groups, including white people and Catholics.

He was non-committal about whether the United States should defend Taiwan, preferring not to disclose his stance to maintain negotiation leverage.

President Trump discussed the strategic deployment of U.S. troops overseas, suggesting adjustments might be necessary but emphasizing the ability to manage troop deployments effectively. He criticized South Korea for renegotiating a financial agreement that reduced their payment to the United States for military protection.

The former president also championed democracy over dictatorship, highlighting freedom as a key advantage. However, he expressed concerns about the current state of U.S. democracy, citing the weaponization of federal agencies against political figures.

He refuted claims that he wanted to terminate parts of the Constitution or become a dictator; instead, he accused Democrats of violating constitutional principles through judicial and administrative actions.

He noted when he said he would only be a dictator “on day one” while in an interview with Sean Hannity, that it was clearly a joke and that most people understood it as such.

“That was said sarcastically. That was meant as a joke. Everybody knows that.”

Regarding the pandemic, President Trump reflected on Operation Warp Speed and praised his administration’s rapid development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics.

“You know, you have strong opinions both ways on the vaccines,” President Trump said. “It’s interesting. The Democrats love the vaccine. The Democrats. Only reason I don’t take credit for it. The Republicans, in many cases, don’t, although many of them got it, I can tell you. It’s very interesting.”

He was also skeptical about the efficacy of permanent pandemic preparedness offices, suggesting they were politically motivated and financially wasteful.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/02/2024 - 12:55