Tom Lee's BitMine Holdings Top $3 Billion In Largest Global Ethereum Treasury Strategy

Aside from Friday's sudden net outflow, the month of Ethereum's tenth anniversary was celebrated by an almost unstoppable wave of net inflows into ETFs...

And, perhaps even more notably, an ongoing demand from Altcoin Treasury Strategy companies is also gaining momentum with Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) said its ether holdings have climbed to about 833,000 tokens currently worth more than $2.9 billion, making the Tom Lee–backed company the world’s largest public holder of ETH.

Source: The Block

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who is now the Chairman of BitMine’s board of directors, says the firm is pushing to acquire 5% of the circulating supply of Ethereum, which would be about 6,035,480 ETH.

“BitMine moved with lightning speed in its pursuit of the ‘alchemy of 5%’ of ETH growing our ETH holdings to over 833,000 from zero 35 days ago.

We have separated ourselves among crypto treasury peers by both the velocity of raising crypto NAV per share and by the high liquidity of our stock.”

Ethereum is surging higher this morning on the heels of this news...

Continuing its recent strong outperformance trend over bitcoin...

As a reminder, Standard Chartered forecasts Ethereum Treasury holdings to top 10% of supply:

For ETH this is likely to happen more quickly, as the broader concept of corporate holdings of digital assets is already accepted.

Publicly listed Bitcoin mining company, BitMine Immersion Tech (BMNR), is currently the largest Ether treasury firm, holding 0.5% of the circulating ETH supply.

If BMNR can achieve its goal of increasing its ETH holdings to 5% of the total in circulation, then it is fair to assume that ETH treasury companies as a whole will end up holding more than 10% of all ETH in circulation. This would be a 10x increase from today’s corporate treasury holdings.

Ether-focused treasury firms have more growth potential compared to Bitcoin treasury firms from a “regulatory arbitrage perspective,” according to Standard Chartered.

"...this buying of digital assets by corporates makes sense due to inefficiencies in financial markets, mostly stemming from regulation.

Specifically, restrictions on investor access to the asset class, which remain significant in a large number of jurisdictions, mean that investors seek alternative vehicles (in this case publicly listed companies) through which to gain exposure to the underlying asset.

As a result, these companies’ market cap tends to trade above the net asset value (NAV) of the assets held, at a so-called positive NAV multiple."

Ether treasury firms can “capture both staking rewards and decentralised finance (DeFi) leverage opportunities, which US Ethereum ETFs currently cannot.”

In terms of next potential catalysts, we will be looking at the upcoming Fusaka protocol upgrade in  Q4’25.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:45

Tom Lee's BitMine Holdings Top $3 Billion In Largest Global Ethereum Treasury Strategy

Aside from Friday's sudden net outflow, the month of Ethereum's tenth anniversary was celebrated by an almost unstoppable wave of net inflows into ETFs...

And, perhaps even more notably, an ongoing demand from Altcoin Treasury Strategy companies is also gaining momentum with Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) said its ether holdings have climbed to about 833,000 tokens currently worth more than $2.9 billion, making the Tom Lee–backed company the world’s largest public holder of ETH.

Source: The Block

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who is now the Chairman of BitMine’s board of directors, says the firm is pushing to acquire 5% of the circulating supply of Ethereum, which would be about 6,035,480 ETH.

“BitMine moved with lightning speed in its pursuit of the ‘alchemy of 5%’ of ETH growing our ETH holdings to over 833,000 from zero 35 days ago.

We have separated ourselves among crypto treasury peers by both the velocity of raising crypto NAV per share and by the high liquidity of our stock.”

Ethereum is surging higher this morning on the heels of this news...

Continuing its recent strong outperformance trend over bitcoin...

As a reminder, Standard Chartered forecasts Ethereum Treasury holdings to top 10% of supply:

For ETH this is likely to happen more quickly, as the broader concept of corporate holdings of digital assets is already accepted.

Publicly listed Bitcoin mining company, BitMine Immersion Tech (BMNR), is currently the largest Ether treasury firm, holding 0.5% of the circulating ETH supply.

If BMNR can achieve its goal of increasing its ETH holdings to 5% of the total in circulation, then it is fair to assume that ETH treasury companies as a whole will end up holding more than 10% of all ETH in circulation. This would be a 10x increase from today’s corporate treasury holdings.

Ether-focused treasury firms have more growth potential compared to Bitcoin treasury firms from a “regulatory arbitrage perspective,” according to Standard Chartered.

"...this buying of digital assets by corporates makes sense due to inefficiencies in financial markets, mostly stemming from regulation.

Specifically, restrictions on investor access to the asset class, which remain significant in a large number of jurisdictions, mean that investors seek alternative vehicles (in this case publicly listed companies) through which to gain exposure to the underlying asset.

As a result, these companies’ market cap tends to trade above the net asset value (NAV) of the assets held, at a so-called positive NAV multiple."

Ether treasury firms can “capture both staking rewards and decentralised finance (DeFi) leverage opportunities, which US Ethereum ETFs currently cannot.”

In terms of next potential catalysts, we will be looking at the upcoming Fusaka protocol upgrade in  Q4’25.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:45

EPA's Lee Zeldin Defends Proposal To Repeal Climate Regulation

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin on Sunday defended plans to repeal the agency’s Obama-era “endangerment findings“ that link motor vehicle emissions to changes in the climate and underpin related regulations.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin attends a Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission Event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 22, 2025. Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Zeldin told CNN’s “State of the Union” that to reach the 2009 endangerment findings, officials “relied on the most pessimistic views of the science.”

He added that a lot of those views did not pan out and that his proposals “rely on 2025 facts, as opposed to 2009 bad assumptions.”

On July 29, Zeldin proposed repealing the findings, saying during a visit to an auto dealership in Indiana that doing so would “end 16 years of uncertainty for automakers and American consumers.”

According to the EPA, if the proposal goes ahead, it would repeal $1 trillion in regulations, saving $54 billion annually.

The plans followed Zeldin’s announcement in June that his administration would start relaxing Clean Power Plant greenhouse gas and mercury emission regulations, which were imposed under the Biden and Obama administrations.

These regulations would have required power plants to “capture” 40 percent of their emissions by 2032 and increase that to 90 percent by 2039, which Zeldin said would cost coal- and gas-fired plants upward of $1 billion a year.

Two Findings

According to the EPA’s website, the agency relied on two findings—signed in December 2009 under a section of the Clean Air Act—to impose regulations on greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.

The first finding said “current and projected concentrations” of six well-mixed greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—in the atmosphere threatened public health and welfare.

The second found that the combined emissions from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contributed to greenhouse gas pollution.

“These findings do not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities,” the EPA stated.

“However, this action was a prerequisite for implementing greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.”

Zeldin told “State of the Nation” that previous government officials had made “a lot of mental leaps” in order to justify the findings.

“They say carbon dioxide, when mixed with a whole bunch of other well-mixed gases, in some cases not even emitted from mobile sources ... contributes to global climate change. It doesn’t say causes, [it says] ‘contributes.’ How much, they don’t say, but it’s north of zero—not much more than zero,” Zeldin said.

Vague Language

Zeldin added that the EPA could not use vague language in statutes to make mandates, and that regulating “mobile sources” of pollution, such as automobiles, was a matter that would ultimately need to be addressed by Congress.

“The power comes from the law. I don’t get to just make up the law,” he said.

Zeldin added that for the United States to become the AI capital of the world, unleash energy dominance, bring down energy costs, and protect jobs, “we are not going to regulate out of existence entire sectors of our economy, and we are not going to interpret law in whichever vague, creative way allows us to give ourselves maximum power.”

He said the agency’s plan is still just a proposal at this stage and will be open for public comment, with a final decision to follow after the comment period ends.

Environmental groups have criticized the plans.

The Environmental Defense Fund said on X last month that the proposal would “put millions in harm’s way,” calling it the administration’s “most environmentally destructive action yet.”

The organization said that the EPA’s actions would lead to more pollution, stronger hurricanes, more powerful floods, and more frequent fires, as well as causing higher insurance and increasing fuel costs for Americans.

T.J. Muscaro and Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:25

EPA's Lee Zeldin Defends Proposal To Repeal Climate Regulation

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin on Sunday defended plans to repeal the agency’s Obama-era “endangerment findings“ that link motor vehicle emissions to changes in the climate and underpin related regulations.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin attends a Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission Event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 22, 2025. Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Zeldin told CNN’s “State of the Union” that to reach the 2009 endangerment findings, officials “relied on the most pessimistic views of the science.”

He added that a lot of those views did not pan out and that his proposals “rely on 2025 facts, as opposed to 2009 bad assumptions.”

On July 29, Zeldin proposed repealing the findings, saying during a visit to an auto dealership in Indiana that doing so would “end 16 years of uncertainty for automakers and American consumers.”

According to the EPA, if the proposal goes ahead, it would repeal $1 trillion in regulations, saving $54 billion annually.

The plans followed Zeldin’s announcement in June that his administration would start relaxing Clean Power Plant greenhouse gas and mercury emission regulations, which were imposed under the Biden and Obama administrations.

These regulations would have required power plants to “capture” 40 percent of their emissions by 2032 and increase that to 90 percent by 2039, which Zeldin said would cost coal- and gas-fired plants upward of $1 billion a year.

Two Findings

According to the EPA’s website, the agency relied on two findings—signed in December 2009 under a section of the Clean Air Act—to impose regulations on greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.

The first finding said “current and projected concentrations” of six well-mixed greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—in the atmosphere threatened public health and welfare.

The second found that the combined emissions from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contributed to greenhouse gas pollution.

“These findings do not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities,” the EPA stated.

“However, this action was a prerequisite for implementing greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.”

Zeldin told “State of the Nation” that previous government officials had made “a lot of mental leaps” in order to justify the findings.

“They say carbon dioxide, when mixed with a whole bunch of other well-mixed gases, in some cases not even emitted from mobile sources ... contributes to global climate change. It doesn’t say causes, [it says] ‘contributes.’ How much, they don’t say, but it’s north of zero—not much more than zero,” Zeldin said.

Vague Language

Zeldin added that the EPA could not use vague language in statutes to make mandates, and that regulating “mobile sources” of pollution, such as automobiles, was a matter that would ultimately need to be addressed by Congress.

“The power comes from the law. I don’t get to just make up the law,” he said.

Zeldin added that for the United States to become the AI capital of the world, unleash energy dominance, bring down energy costs, and protect jobs, “we are not going to regulate out of existence entire sectors of our economy, and we are not going to interpret law in whichever vague, creative way allows us to give ourselves maximum power.”

He said the agency’s plan is still just a proposal at this stage and will be open for public comment, with a final decision to follow after the comment period ends.

Environmental groups have criticized the plans.

The Environmental Defense Fund said on X last month that the proposal would “put millions in harm’s way,” calling it the administration’s “most environmentally destructive action yet.”

The organization said that the EPA’s actions would lead to more pollution, stronger hurricanes, more powerful floods, and more frequent fires, as well as causing higher insurance and increasing fuel costs for Americans.

T.J. Muscaro and Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:25

EPA's Lee Zeldin Defends Proposal To Repeal Climate Regulation

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin on Sunday defended plans to repeal the agency’s Obama-era “endangerment findings“ that link motor vehicle emissions to changes in the climate and underpin related regulations.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin attends a Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission Event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 22, 2025. Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Zeldin told CNN’s “State of the Union” that to reach the 2009 endangerment findings, officials “relied on the most pessimistic views of the science.”

He added that a lot of those views did not pan out and that his proposals “rely on 2025 facts, as opposed to 2009 bad assumptions.”

On July 29, Zeldin proposed repealing the findings, saying during a visit to an auto dealership in Indiana that doing so would “end 16 years of uncertainty for automakers and American consumers.”

According to the EPA, if the proposal goes ahead, it would repeal $1 trillion in regulations, saving $54 billion annually.

The plans followed Zeldin’s announcement in June that his administration would start relaxing Clean Power Plant greenhouse gas and mercury emission regulations, which were imposed under the Biden and Obama administrations.

These regulations would have required power plants to “capture” 40 percent of their emissions by 2032 and increase that to 90 percent by 2039, which Zeldin said would cost coal- and gas-fired plants upward of $1 billion a year.

Two Findings

According to the EPA’s website, the agency relied on two findings—signed in December 2009 under a section of the Clean Air Act—to impose regulations on greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.

The first finding said “current and projected concentrations” of six well-mixed greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—in the atmosphere threatened public health and welfare.

The second found that the combined emissions from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contributed to greenhouse gas pollution.

“These findings do not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities,” the EPA stated.

“However, this action was a prerequisite for implementing greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.”

Zeldin told “State of the Nation” that previous government officials had made “a lot of mental leaps” in order to justify the findings.

“They say carbon dioxide, when mixed with a whole bunch of other well-mixed gases, in some cases not even emitted from mobile sources ... contributes to global climate change. It doesn’t say causes, [it says] ‘contributes.’ How much, they don’t say, but it’s north of zero—not much more than zero,” Zeldin said.

Vague Language

Zeldin added that the EPA could not use vague language in statutes to make mandates, and that regulating “mobile sources” of pollution, such as automobiles, was a matter that would ultimately need to be addressed by Congress.

“The power comes from the law. I don’t get to just make up the law,” he said.

Zeldin added that for the United States to become the AI capital of the world, unleash energy dominance, bring down energy costs, and protect jobs, “we are not going to regulate out of existence entire sectors of our economy, and we are not going to interpret law in whichever vague, creative way allows us to give ourselves maximum power.”

He said the agency’s plan is still just a proposal at this stage and will be open for public comment, with a final decision to follow after the comment period ends.

Environmental groups have criticized the plans.

The Environmental Defense Fund said on X last month that the proposal would “put millions in harm’s way,” calling it the administration’s “most environmentally destructive action yet.”

The organization said that the EPA’s actions would lead to more pollution, stronger hurricanes, more powerful floods, and more frequent fires, as well as causing higher insurance and increasing fuel costs for Americans.

T.J. Muscaro and Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:25

Stripper Index Doesn't Apply To Bitcoin, OnlyFans Models Say

The "stripper index” - an anecdotal measurement that connects economic health with spending on adult entertainment - appears unable to predict Bitcoin’s price.

Only indicator that actually matters: if this breaks support, recession guaranteed pic.twitter.com/BgNlUv0grZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 8, 2025

As CoinTelegraph reports, Kodi Rose (guessing here, but that's probably not her real name), a self-described “dollar stripper” and adult content creator, alluded to these frontline insights in a recent viral TikTok video, saying she believes the economy is already in a recession as fewer customers are asking where they can “hit the slopes,” a social code for cocaine.

The digital equivalent of exotic dancers is adult content creators, and OnlyFans dominates the space. On the platform, users subscribe to creators and tip for extras.

Turns out the stripper index doesn’t really work for Bitcoin. A 57-month revenue analysis of one mid-tier OnlyFans creator shows a negative correlation with Bitcoin’s price, despite the two moving in the same direction more than half the time.

To understand whether creators’ income holds any predictive value for Bitcoin, Cointelegraph spoke to veterans in the adult entertainment industry who’ve weathered both its ups and downs alongside crypto’s hype cycles.

Bitcoin followed OnlyFans model’s earnings 55% of the time

The stripper index is backed by the assumption that consumers will cut down on non-essential spending during economic downturns.

“Sex work is considered a ‘non-essential’ service — it’s entertainment, a luxury. Therefore, it’s one of the first expenses people cut when their financial situation becomes uncertain or they anticipate economic instability,” Catherine De Noire, an OnlyFans creator and brothel manager, told Cointelegraph. 

Alana Nguyen, who performs on OnlyFans under the stage name “Nerdy Dancing,” shared her monthly earnings with Cointelegraph since moving online after the 2020 pandemic shut down of the physical world, including strip clubs. So far, she hasn’t noticed any clear correlation between crypto prices and subscriber behavior.

Nguyen’s revenue before taxes and expenses, but after a 20% cut to OnlyFans. Source: Nerdy Dancing

“Even if there are global economic conditions affecting overall spending, I don’t think crypto prices correlate strongly with my earnings,” Nguyen told Cointelegraph.

A Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.335 over 57 months suggests a moderately negative linear relationship between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price.

A 10-month rolling Pearson correlation between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price showed considerable volatility over time. The highest correlation was observed in the 10-month period ending July 2021, which were the first months of Nguyen’s business. 

Out of 48 total calculations, the rolling correlation coefficient was evenly split, with 24 positive and 24 negative values, suggesting the relationship between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price fluctuated without a consistent pattern. The rolling correlation rarely went above 0.5 or below -0.5, indicating low correlation.

Each 10-month window contains a small sample size, so these results should be viewed as indicative rather than statistically conclusive.

In a separate measurement, Cointelegraph analyzed whether or not Nguyen’s earnings rose when Bitcoin’s monthly average rose compared to the previous month and when her revenue dropped as Bitcoin dropped. In this measurement, the two moved toward the same direction almost half the time, with 55% accuracy over 57 months.

“I’ve always thought concepts like the stripper index are only useful in terms of aggregate spending. Even in the strip club, my earnings aren’t necessarily tied to how the club is doing overall. It’s more about my personal selling ability that day — whether regulars come in or I get lucky with a big spender,” Nguyen said.

OnlyFans is notorious for opaque financial reporting. One website, OnlyGuider, claims to have analyzed the transaction behavior of over 1 million subscribers and found that the top 0.1% of creators earn the majority of the platform’s revenue.

According to data from OnlyGuider shared with Cointelegraph, the top 0.1% of creators earned $2,035,331 in April 2025, when Bitcoin’s average price was $94,207. As Bitcoin prices continued to rise in May and June, earnings for the top 0.1% also increased, reaching $2,038,972 in May and $2,052,502 in June.

Most OnlyFans subscribers spend their money on top models. Source: OnlyGuider Bitcoin’s relationship with OnlyFans and adult entertainment

Crypto was once seen as an alternative tool for facilitating payments to adult content creators. Pornhub, one of the industry’s largest platforms, began accepting cryptocurrency as early as 2018. OnlyFans, however, has taken a different path and does not offer crypto as a payment method.

“Crypto payments are not very popular in our brothel. Most clients prefer cash because it leaves no trace. Only a very small number of the women working with us accept crypto payments, and even then, the total number of transactions per year is extremely low,” De Noire said. 

“We haven’t noticed any significant change in spending behavior that corresponds with crypto fluctuations. Whether Bitcoin or Ethereum is performing well or not doesn’t seem to have a direct effect on how much our clients are willing to spend,” she added.

Erotic film star Allie Eve Knox has stronger ties to the crypto community as an advocate for integrating cryptocurrency into the adult industry and through her involvement with SpankChain, which launched initiatives like SpankPay, a crypto payment option for adult creators that has since been discontinued. 

Knox, who offers her content on several platforms, including OnlyFans, agreed that the price of Bitcoin doesn’t appear to have a meaningful impact on her earnings.

“Anytime crypto hits an all-time high, our traffic actually slows,” Knox told Cointelegraph.

“People want to see the biggest number in their account and screenshot it. It’s not typical for them to go passing out money to get their wanks.”

Knox has been in the adult entertainment industry for 11 years and says she’s experienced 36 account closures over her career — from bank accounts to Cash App and PayPal. Crypto offered an alternative way to accept payments, but ironically, she claims she was de-banked even by crypto platforms.

“I showed a Showtime documentary crew how I could display my Coinbase QR code on camera, and viewers could pay me in Bitcoin or Ether. The day after it aired, Coinbase shut my account down.”

Modern payment options — whether crypto or digital banking — make transactions easier for both consumers and businesses. However, electronic methods still draw scrutiny from banks when used by sex workers. In brothels, clients often prefer cash, sometimes even leaving mid-session to withdraw money from an ATM, De Noire said.

“As an OnlyFans creator, however, I notice something a little bit similar. My subscribers generally have no issue using credit cards and trust the platform. Yet many of them still ask if they can pay via Bitcoin or other alternative methods,” she said.

“Since OF doesn’t allow payments outside the platform, I haven’t pursued this further, but it’s clear that even online clients are looking for more privacy and control over the data they share with financial institutions.”

Bitcoin’s honeymoon with OnlyFans models has passed

Web3 and adult content had their “good old days,” according to Knox, who says the non-fungible token (NFT) boom of 2021 opened up new income streams and gave creators more options to reach fans and spend their crypto earnings.

“Now, if a customer doesn’t already hold crypto, they have to move money from their bank, wait for it to clear into a wallet, maybe convert it, send it to a model, wait for confirmation and only then do they get the content,” she said.

Creators are also facing increasing barriers worldwide. Recently, China launched a nationwide crackdown on OnlyFans, while Sweden, a nation that’s politically and culturally very different from China, has imposed restrictions on purchasing adult content.

SpankPay cited a hostile regulatory climate as the reason for winding down its payment service. Source: SpankPay

De Noire cited sociologist Zygmunt Bauman to point out that in today’s society, consumers aren’t just trying to survive, but they prioritize enjoyment.

“When you see a lot of non-essential services like massages, fancy coffee, wellness retreats or even sex work being used regularly, it’s a sign that the society has enough money going around,” De Noire said.

While cryptocurrency was once hailed as a promising payment solution for adult content creators facing financial censorship, the reality is more complex. Despite pockets of overlap, such as simultaneous rises in Bitcoin prices and earnings among top OnlyFans creators, adult entertainers and their earnings have shown little correlation with Bitcoin’s price trends. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:00

Stripper Index Doesn't Apply To Bitcoin, OnlyFans Models Say

The "stripper index” - an anecdotal measurement that connects economic health with spending on adult entertainment - appears unable to predict Bitcoin’s price.

Only indicator that actually matters: if this breaks support, recession guaranteed pic.twitter.com/BgNlUv0grZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 8, 2025

As CoinTelegraph reports, Kodi Rose (guessing here, but that's probably not her real name), a self-described “dollar stripper” and adult content creator, alluded to these frontline insights in a recent viral TikTok video, saying she believes the economy is already in a recession as fewer customers are asking where they can “hit the slopes,” a social code for cocaine.

The digital equivalent of exotic dancers is adult content creators, and OnlyFans dominates the space. On the platform, users subscribe to creators and tip for extras.

Turns out the stripper index doesn’t really work for Bitcoin. A 57-month revenue analysis of one mid-tier OnlyFans creator shows a negative correlation with Bitcoin’s price, despite the two moving in the same direction more than half the time.

To understand whether creators’ income holds any predictive value for Bitcoin, Cointelegraph spoke to veterans in the adult entertainment industry who’ve weathered both its ups and downs alongside crypto’s hype cycles.

Bitcoin followed OnlyFans model’s earnings 55% of the time

The stripper index is backed by the assumption that consumers will cut down on non-essential spending during economic downturns.

“Sex work is considered a ‘non-essential’ service — it’s entertainment, a luxury. Therefore, it’s one of the first expenses people cut when their financial situation becomes uncertain or they anticipate economic instability,” Catherine De Noire, an OnlyFans creator and brothel manager, told Cointelegraph. 

Alana Nguyen, who performs on OnlyFans under the stage name “Nerdy Dancing,” shared her monthly earnings with Cointelegraph since moving online after the 2020 pandemic shut down of the physical world, including strip clubs. So far, she hasn’t noticed any clear correlation between crypto prices and subscriber behavior.

Nguyen’s revenue before taxes and expenses, but after a 20% cut to OnlyFans. Source: Nerdy Dancing

“Even if there are global economic conditions affecting overall spending, I don’t think crypto prices correlate strongly with my earnings,” Nguyen told Cointelegraph.

A Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.335 over 57 months suggests a moderately negative linear relationship between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price.

A 10-month rolling Pearson correlation between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price showed considerable volatility over time. The highest correlation was observed in the 10-month period ending July 2021, which were the first months of Nguyen’s business. 

Out of 48 total calculations, the rolling correlation coefficient was evenly split, with 24 positive and 24 negative values, suggesting the relationship between Nguyen’s earnings and Bitcoin’s price fluctuated without a consistent pattern. The rolling correlation rarely went above 0.5 or below -0.5, indicating low correlation.

Each 10-month window contains a small sample size, so these results should be viewed as indicative rather than statistically conclusive.

In a separate measurement, Cointelegraph analyzed whether or not Nguyen’s earnings rose when Bitcoin’s monthly average rose compared to the previous month and when her revenue dropped as Bitcoin dropped. In this measurement, the two moved toward the same direction almost half the time, with 55% accuracy over 57 months.

“I’ve always thought concepts like the stripper index are only useful in terms of aggregate spending. Even in the strip club, my earnings aren’t necessarily tied to how the club is doing overall. It’s more about my personal selling ability that day — whether regulars come in or I get lucky with a big spender,” Nguyen said.

OnlyFans is notorious for opaque financial reporting. One website, OnlyGuider, claims to have analyzed the transaction behavior of over 1 million subscribers and found that the top 0.1% of creators earn the majority of the platform’s revenue.

According to data from OnlyGuider shared with Cointelegraph, the top 0.1% of creators earned $2,035,331 in April 2025, when Bitcoin’s average price was $94,207. As Bitcoin prices continued to rise in May and June, earnings for the top 0.1% also increased, reaching $2,038,972 in May and $2,052,502 in June.

Most OnlyFans subscribers spend their money on top models. Source: OnlyGuider Bitcoin’s relationship with OnlyFans and adult entertainment

Crypto was once seen as an alternative tool for facilitating payments to adult content creators. Pornhub, one of the industry’s largest platforms, began accepting cryptocurrency as early as 2018. OnlyFans, however, has taken a different path and does not offer crypto as a payment method.

“Crypto payments are not very popular in our brothel. Most clients prefer cash because it leaves no trace. Only a very small number of the women working with us accept crypto payments, and even then, the total number of transactions per year is extremely low,” De Noire said. 

“We haven’t noticed any significant change in spending behavior that corresponds with crypto fluctuations. Whether Bitcoin or Ethereum is performing well or not doesn’t seem to have a direct effect on how much our clients are willing to spend,” she added.

Erotic film star Allie Eve Knox has stronger ties to the crypto community as an advocate for integrating cryptocurrency into the adult industry and through her involvement with SpankChain, which launched initiatives like SpankPay, a crypto payment option for adult creators that has since been discontinued. 

Knox, who offers her content on several platforms, including OnlyFans, agreed that the price of Bitcoin doesn’t appear to have a meaningful impact on her earnings.

“Anytime crypto hits an all-time high, our traffic actually slows,” Knox told Cointelegraph.

“People want to see the biggest number in their account and screenshot it. It’s not typical for them to go passing out money to get their wanks.”

Knox has been in the adult entertainment industry for 11 years and says she’s experienced 36 account closures over her career — from bank accounts to Cash App and PayPal. Crypto offered an alternative way to accept payments, but ironically, she claims she was de-banked even by crypto platforms.

“I showed a Showtime documentary crew how I could display my Coinbase QR code on camera, and viewers could pay me in Bitcoin or Ether. The day after it aired, Coinbase shut my account down.”

Modern payment options — whether crypto or digital banking — make transactions easier for both consumers and businesses. However, electronic methods still draw scrutiny from banks when used by sex workers. In brothels, clients often prefer cash, sometimes even leaving mid-session to withdraw money from an ATM, De Noire said.

“As an OnlyFans creator, however, I notice something a little bit similar. My subscribers generally have no issue using credit cards and trust the platform. Yet many of them still ask if they can pay via Bitcoin or other alternative methods,” she said.

“Since OF doesn’t allow payments outside the platform, I haven’t pursued this further, but it’s clear that even online clients are looking for more privacy and control over the data they share with financial institutions.”

Bitcoin’s honeymoon with OnlyFans models has passed

Web3 and adult content had their “good old days,” according to Knox, who says the non-fungible token (NFT) boom of 2021 opened up new income streams and gave creators more options to reach fans and spend their crypto earnings.

“Now, if a customer doesn’t already hold crypto, they have to move money from their bank, wait for it to clear into a wallet, maybe convert it, send it to a model, wait for confirmation and only then do they get the content,” she said.

Creators are also facing increasing barriers worldwide. Recently, China launched a nationwide crackdown on OnlyFans, while Sweden, a nation that’s politically and culturally very different from China, has imposed restrictions on purchasing adult content.

SpankPay cited a hostile regulatory climate as the reason for winding down its payment service. Source: SpankPay

De Noire cited sociologist Zygmunt Bauman to point out that in today’s society, consumers aren’t just trying to survive, but they prioritize enjoyment.

“When you see a lot of non-essential services like massages, fancy coffee, wellness retreats or even sex work being used regularly, it’s a sign that the society has enough money going around,” De Noire said.

While cryptocurrency was once hailed as a promising payment solution for adult content creators facing financial censorship, the reality is more complex. Despite pockets of overlap, such as simultaneous rises in Bitcoin prices and earnings among top OnlyFans creators, adult entertainers and their earnings have shown little correlation with Bitcoin’s price trends. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 13:00

After Years Of Refusing Reforms, The CPB Accepts Institutional Death Over Political Dishonor

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

It is official. The Corporation for Public Broadcasting finally accepted death over balance.

This week, the CPB announced that, with the withdrawal of federal funding, it would cease operations by September 30, 2025: “Despite the extraordinary efforts of millions of Americans who called, wrote, and petitioned Congress to preserve federal funding for CPB, we now face the difficult reality of closing our operations.”

The autopsy for the CPB, however, will put this cause of death as a self-inflicted blow.

For almost 60 years, Republican Presidents and conservative politicians have complained about the overwhelming liberal bias at the CPB and its supported programs, particularly National Public Radio (NPR). For most of those years, the CPB could shrug off the complaints. The Democrats controlled one or both houses (or at least the White House). With the political left solidly behind the CPB, the corporation refused to carry out even modest reforms. It simply gave the stiff arm to every conservative effort to bring its programming back to the middle of the political spectrum.

Even in the face of a GOP-controlled Congress and a Republican president, the CPB was defiant in denying any bias. It suggested that decades of complaints from the right were nothing more than the fevered imagination of far-right activists.

For the record, I was not calling for the termination of funding of the CPB, which I thought could still be forced to reform itself. What I opposed was the continuation of funding for NPR as a state-subsidized media outlet. It was not the pronounced bias of NPR that I felt justified termination. This country should preserve a wall of separation between the government and the media, a view that even a former NPR CEO acknowledged recently as legitimate.

CPB is different. It funded a broader array of programming and could easily correct its course. For decades, all the CPB had to do is refocus on programming to appeal to the greatest cross section of the population and to decline to fund media programs like NPR that became more strident and partisan by the year. It seemed that the CPB was trapped within its own echo chambered existence.

On the left, the CPB was the hero institution standing up to social and political reactionaries. That is what CPB officials heard at cocktail parties and conferences. They heard little from the public outside of their core, narrow constituency. For individual administrators and board members, their status and success were tied to the very bias that was alienating most of America.

For them, the choice was clear between neutrality and nonexistence: they grabbed a hemlock-filled, NPR pledge mug and drank deeply.

They are not the only figures choosing death over social dishonor. Efforts to restore balance and neutrality at the Washington Post has led to a virtual revolt. Even after CEO William Lewis told staff that the newspaper was gushing readers and revenue, the staff refused to yield. He could not have put it more bluntly, telling them, “People are not reading your stuff.” In other words, they were writing for each other as readers were fleeing to other sources of news.

You would think that Washington Post writers would recognize that, if they wanted to be journalists, they would have to return to more neutral and objective reporting. It does not work that way. Many of these editors and writers had secured their very positions in rejecting neutrality and embracing advocacy journalism. By their own previously stated standards, a return to traditional journalism would be capitulation and cowardice. Thus, they would rather see the Post go insolvent than independent.

That takes us back to the CPB. The announcement of cessation was met with a chorus of wails and laments on the left. Yet, these are the same people who preferred this option to reforming the CPB to serve the greatest number of Americans.

NPR made the same choice. A few years ago, it was given the opportunity to select a new CEO who would represent a serious, centrist leadership for the failing news organization. Instead, the board doubled down on that very bias and selected Katherine Maher, who had a long history of inflammatory political attacks on conservatives and was the very embodiment of activism.

As late as a few months ago, CPB could have come forward with real reforms. Instead, PBS President Paula Kerger threatened legal action if Congress had the temerity to refuse to fund her organization. At the same time, she did nothing to distance herself from NPR, which was dragging down CPB like an anchor. Even as NPR’s Katherine Maher imploded before Congress, Kerger refused to budge.

The irony is that NPR is likely to survive in reduced form, appealing to a shrinking audience of predominantly white, affluent, liberal listeners in major cities.

Conversely, CPB is laying off its entire staff in a righteous, indignant huff. None of these people needed to lose their jobs if their leadership served their organization by listening to views beyond their own insular circle of enablers. The demise of the CPB now stands as the most impressive and unnecessary act of self-termination since the appearance of Judean People’s Front Crack Suicide Squad:

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 12:40

Oil Jumps As Trump Threatens India With 'Substantial' Tariffs For Buying Russian Crude

President Trump switched his attention from the domestic jobs figures to the price of oil this morning with a Truth Social post that lambasts India for their dealings with Russia:

"India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits."

Then Trump made the threats:

They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.

Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT

And oil prices spiked on the news...

This commentary and action by President Trump comes shortlay afterDave DeCamp reported earlier via AntiWar.com, a senior advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling on the US to "strangle" the Russian economy by imposing tariffs on Moscow’s trading partners, though the US measures are unlikely to hurt Russia.

"The [Russian] economy, geared for war, cannot withstand the pressure and is holding on only through the sale of energy resources," said Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office. "It is possible to strangle the economy with secondary tariffs proposed in the USA."

Via TASS

President Trump has threatened to hit countries that are purchasing Russian oil with 100% tariffs, and a bill in the Senate would impose 500% tariffs on any country that "knowingly engages in the exchange of Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products."

Either tariff rate would have a significant impact on the US economy since China and India are major buyers of Russian oil. President Trump has already announced a 25% tariff on India and an unspecified “penalty” on the country over its trade with Russia. But Indian officials say they will continue buying Russian oil despite the US threats of further action.

In response to US threats to impose tariffs over the purchase of Russian oil, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Beijing would “take energy supply measures” based on China’s national interests.

“Tariff wars have no winners,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Gua Jiakum. “Coercion and pressuring cannot solve problems. China will firmly safeguard its own sovereignty, security, and development interests.”

Russia has also made clear that it’s not fazed by the US’s ultimatum to reach a deal to end the war in Ukraine by August 8 or face tariffs and other economic measures.

The deadline prompted a warning from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who said each US ultimatum “is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.”

India has indicated that it would continue buying oil from Russia despite threats by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Indian foreign ministry said its relationship with Russia was “steady and time-tested,” and should not be seen through the prism of a third country. —Associated Press

India to defy Trump’s threats and keep buying Russian oil, government sources say https://t.co/NljrJHMed8 pic.twitter.com/ItHCFb09Rz

— The Independent (@Independent) August 3, 2025

Trump responded to Medvedev’s comments by announcing the deployment of two nuclear submarines, a highly provocative move. “I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that,” he wrote on Truth Social on Friday. “Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.”

*  *  *

With all that said, one wonders if President Trump - strange as it may seem - has got the tap on the shoulder from 'Big Oil' explaining that they need oil prices higher (not 'high') for 'drill baby drill' to succeed.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 11:00

Key Events This Week: ISM, Trade Balance And More Earnings

Last week was by far the busiest of the year, with a perfect storm confluence of macro, earnings and central bank newsflow avalanche. Not surprisingly, this post-payrolls week is much quieter; among the US data releases that matter will be Tuesday’s ISM report (forecast at 51.2 versus 50.8 previously), particularly its employment component, and Thursday’s initial jobless claims (225,000 versus 218,000) will be closely watched in light of the payroll revisions.

Tuesday also brings the international trade balance (-$75 billion versus -$71.5 billion), which will include country and product-level details. These will allow for a recalculation of the average tariff rate. DB economists estimate that, as of 7 August, when country-specific rates take effect, the average tariff rate will be 19.6% on a static basis using 2024 trade weights. However, this is likely an upper bound, and after adjusting for overestimation, the more realistic average is closer to 15%.  Thursday’s US data also includes productivity (expected at +2.5% versus -1.5%) and unit labour costs (+1.0% versus +6.6%).

In Europe, the highlight will be the Bank of England’s rate decision - DB expects the central bank to cut the Bank Rate to 4%, marking the fifth quarter-point reduction in the current cycle.  Additional European data will come from trade and industrial production figures across key Eurozone economies, with Germany’s factory orders due on Wednesday. CPI prints are expected in Switzerland today and in Sweden on Thursday.

In Asia, the focus will be on China’s trade balance, due Thursday, and Japan’s wage data on Wednesday. Chinese exports are expected to slow to 5% year-on-year in July, down from 5.8% in June. The Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday and the minutes from the June meeting tomorrow.

On the earnings front, the US season has passed its peak, but notable reports are expected from Eli Lilly, Palantir, and AMD. Other S&P 500 names reporting include McDonald’s, Walt Disney, and Uber. In Europe, attention will be on Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Rheinmetall. Novo’s report on Wednesday will be particularly interesting following last week’s profit warning. In Japan, Toyota and Sony are set to report. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest energy company by market capitalization, will release its results tomorrow.

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday August 4

• Data: US June factory orders, Japan July monetary base, Switzerland July CPI
• Earnings: Palantir, Mitsubishi UFJ, MercadoLibre, Vertex, Williams Cos

Tuesday August 5

• Data: US July ISM services, June trade balance, China July services PMI, UK July official reserves changes, new car registrations, France June industrial production, budget balance, Italy July services PMI, Eurozone June PPI, Canada June international merchandise trade, New Zealand Q2 labour force survey 
• Central banks: BoJ minutes of the June meeting
• Earnings: AMD, Caterpillar, Amgen, Eaton, Arista Networks, Pfizer, Recruit Holdings, TransDigm, BP, Apollo, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Marriott, Zoetis, Diageo, Deutsche Post, Coupang, Infineon, Fidelity National Information, Super Micro Computer, DuPont de Nemours, Snap
• Auctions: US 3-year Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday August 6

• Data: UK July construction PMI, Japan June labor cash earnings, Germany June factory orders, July construction PMI, France Q2 private sector payrolls, Italy June industrial production, Eurozone June retail sales
• Central banks: Fed's Cook and Collins speak
• Earnings: Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, Walt Disney, Uber, Shopify, AppLovin, DoorDash, Thomson Reuters, Siemens Energy, Airbnb, Emerson Electric, Fortinet, CRH, Energy Transfer, Generali, Honda Motor, Glencore, Occidental Petroleum, Rockwell Automation, Commerzbank, Bayer, NRG Energy, Vonovia, Carlyle, DraftKings, Global Payments, Duolingo, Lyft
• Auctions: US 10-year Notes ($42bn)

Thursday August 7

• Data: US Q2 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, June consumer credit, wholesale trade sales, July NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, China July trade balance, foreign reserves, Japan June leading index, coincident index, Germany June industrial production, trade balance, France June trade balance, current account balance, Q2 wages, Sweden July CPI
• Central banks: BoE's decision, DMP survey, Fed's Bostic speaks, ECB publishes its economic bulletin, ECB's Rehn speaks
• Earnings: Eli Lilly, Toyota, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Sony, Gilead Sciences, ConocoPhillips, DBS, Constellation Energy, Rheinmetall, Petroleo Brasileiro, Vistra, Flutter Entertainment, Atlassian, Cheniere, Datadog, Block, Kenvue, Take-Two, Warner Bros Discovery, AP Moller - Maersk, Sandoz, Pinterest, Expedia, Rocket Lab, Twilio, NuScale Power, Maplebear, Peloton
• Auctions: US 30-year Bonds ($25bn)

Friday August 8

• Data: China Q2 BoP current account balance, Japan July Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, June household spending, BoP trade balance, BoP current account balance, Canada July jobs report
• Central banks: Fed's Musalem speaks, BoJ's summary of opinions from the July meeting
• Earnings: Munich Re, Wendy's

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the ISM services index on Tuesday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including an event with Fed Governor Cook on Wednesday. 

Monday, August 4 

10:00 AM Factory orders, June (GS -4.2%, consensus -4.8%, last +8.2%); Factory orders ex-transportation, June (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Durable goods orders, June final (GS -9.3%, consensus -9.3%, last -9.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June final (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, June final (last -0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, June final (last +0.4%)  

Tuesday, August 5 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$61.0bn, consensus -$61.3bn, last -$71.5bn)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, July final (consensus 55.1, last 55.2)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, July (GS 52.0, consensus 51.5, last 50.8): We estimate that the ISM services index increased by 1.2pt to 52.0 in July, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+1.9pt to 53.2 in July) but a headwind from residual seasonality. 

Wednesday, August 6 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 
• 02:00 PM Fed Governor Cook and Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speak:  Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and Boston Fed President Susan Collins will participate in a panel discussion with Central Bank of Chile Board Member Luis Felipe Céspedes. The discussion will be moderated by Boston Fed Director of Research Egon Zakrajšek. Q&A is expected. On July 15th, Collins said that “financial data point to the possibility that the impact of tariffs may be lessened somewhat by an ability for firms to decrease profit margins and for consumers to continue spending, despite higher prices.” But she also noted that she “do[es] not rule out scenarios with larger or more persistent effects from tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty.”
• 04:10 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at the 2025 Anchorage Economic Summit. Text and Q&A are expected. On July 17th, Daly said that she believes “the current policy rate is modestly or moderately restrictive" and has “penciled in a nominal neutral rate of 3%.” She also noted that the June SEP’s median projection of two rate cuts in 2025 “is a reasonable outlook to have.”

Thursday, August 7 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 preliminary (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.0%, last -1.5%); Unit labor costs, Q2 preliminary (GS +1.2%, consensus +1.5%, last +6.6%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 2 (GS 218k, consensus 221k, last 218k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 26 (consensus 1,947k, last 1,946k)
• 10:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a virtual fireside chat on monetary policy with the Florida Institute of CFOs. Q&A is expected. On August 1st, Bostic said, “Going into this week, I thought the risks to inflation were much greater than the risks to employment… [but the July nonfarm payroll number and the revisions to prior months’ job gains] suggest that maybe the economy is weakening more broadly than what we had been seeing.” He also noted that he still expects “one cut this year” but is open to “rethinking [that after getting] more data before the next meeting.” 
• 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, July (last 3.0%) 

Friday, August 8 

• There are no major data releases scheduled.
• 10:20 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will participate in a fireside chat hosted by Mississippi Valley State University. Text and Q&A are expected. On July 10th, Musalem said that “tariffs could have a temporary effect on inflation and a one-time effect on prices, [but] they could also have a more persistent impact on inflation,” and that “it’s too soon to tell which way it’s going to go.” He also noted that from his perspective, the current “monetary policy is modestly restrictive.”

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:50

US Deploys F-16 "Super Squadron" Closer To North Korea Border After Kim's Ultimatum

The United States is expanding its military footprint on the Korean Peninsula by establishing another elite air unit near the demilitarized zone, which is apparently in response to Pyongyang's last week announcement that it will only enter negotiations if the US abandons its demand for denuclearization.

The Department of Defense confirmed the US recently transferred 31 F-16 fighter jets from Kunsan Air Base to Osan Air Base, with a purpose to "consolidate air power and enhance combat readiness" in the region.

The Pentagon indicated this marks the second such "super squadron" the US has stationed in South Korea. Osan lies several dozen miles north of Kunsan, closer to the demilitarized zone with North Korea, and so the Kim Jong Un government will no doubt see this as a serious provocation.

Source: Indiana Air National Guard

Lt. Gen. David. R. Iverson, head of the Seventh Air Force and US Forces Korea deputy commander, has described this change as "an opportunity for us to see if squadrons of this size increase our training effectiveness while also increasing our combat capability if deterrence fails."

According to details in Task & Purpose:

Now the Air Force is initiating phase two of the tests, with the creation of a brand new super squadron at Osan. Alongside the 31 planes, roughly 1,000 airmen from the 8th Fighter Wing at Kunsan will transfer to the northern air base as part of this build up. The Air Force described the second phase as a “temporary” shift. The second super squadron is expected to be operational by October, and the second phase will last through October 2026.

North Korea has meanwhile insisted that any future dialogue with the US remains off the table unless Washington recognizes its status as a nuclear-armed nation.

Days ago, Kim Yo-jong, who is the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and a senior official in the country’s ruling Workers Party, stated that "Any attempt to deny the position of the DPRK as a nuclear weapons state, which was established along with the existence of a powerful nuclear deterrent and fixed by the supreme law reflecting the unanimous will of all the DPRK people, will be thoroughly rejected."

"The DPRK is open to any option in defending its present national position," she had added. It is by "no means beneficial" for the US and North Korea to be in confrontation, so the Trump administration should "seek another way of contact on the basis of such new thinking."

Still, even as the Pentagon is conducing a provocative force posture shift with the movement of its jet squadron, Seoul is taking steps to defuse tensions by dismantling propaganda speakers at the border:

South Korean authorities began removing loudspeakers blaring anti-North Korea broadcasts along the country’s border, Seoul’s Ministry of National Defense has said, as the new government of President Lee Jae-myung seeks to ease tensions with Pyongyang.

“Starting today, the military has begun removing the loudspeakers,” Lee Kyung-ho, spokesman of South Korea’s Defence Ministry, told reporters on Monday.

Source: Air Force News Agency

While Pyongyang has in the past reciprocated 'good-faith' actions like this, the continued large presence of American forces on the peninsula will remain a big problem - also given the fact that in recent years the US has docked nuclear-powered submarines at South Korean ports at various times.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:30

Bureau Of Labored Statistics

By Bas van Geffen, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Non-farm payrolls came in at just 73,000 jobs last month. Moreover, revised estimates for May and June came in at just 19k and 14k. This means that 258,000 fewer jobs were created in those two months than initially estimated. 

So, Friday’s employment report was very disappointing, to say the least. It supports the argument of the two dissenting FOMC members, namely that the labor market outlook may be weaker than the Fed thought. It certainly raises the probability of a rate cut when the Fed’s policymakers meet again in September – something the market had started to doubt after last week’s policy decision.

Yet, Trump wasn’t exactly happy. The US president wants the central bank to cut rates. But he does not want lower rates because of concerns that the economy is cooling down. In fact, Trump either does not believe the statistics, or he really does not want to hear them. Following the poor employment report, President Trump fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, claiming she was a political appointee by Biden.

In short, on top of threats to the Fed’s independence, the market may now have to start worrying about the reliability of US data – and not only because statistics agencies are running into capacity constraints as a result of budget cuts. 

Because Trump will get an early opportunity to take more control of the Fed. On Friday, Kugler resigned from the board, several months before her term ended. The US president will reportedly appoint her replacement (who may just become the next Fed Chair when Powell leaves), and the next Commissioner of Labor Statistics, by the end of this week. 

Equity markets fell on Friday, as Trump’s tariffs and the employment report suggested that global growth could be weaker than expected. Today, European markets are opening in the green, hoping that the weak data will elicit Fed easing. Indeed, EUR/USD rose 1.5 cents after the non-farm payrolls as the market revises its outlook for US monetary policy, and perhaps further boosted by concerns about the future independence of the central bank and statistics offices.

As damaging as the firing of the BLS head may be for the trust in US statistics, it wasn’t President Trump’s scariest social media post. Last Thursday, Medvedev, currently the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that Trump’s new ultimatum to stop the war in Ukraine is “a threat and another step towards war.” The former president also reminded Trump of Russia’s nuclear strike capabilities. Responding to Medvedev, President Trump announced that he “ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case.”

Russia and China have started joint military exercises in the Sea of Japan. These war games were planned well before the escalatory rhetoric between Trump and Medvedev, but they do underscore deepening Russia-China ties.

Meanwhile, China’s control over critical raw materials is biting the US’ military dominance. Even though Beijing has loosened export controls on rare earths after the US and China agreed to a trade truce, the Wall Street Journal reports that manufacturers of military equipment still struggle to source key inputs. This leads to significantly higher production costs, and –worse– production delays.

According to US Trade Representative Greer, talks on these rare earth flows are “about halfway there,” while Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism about a near-term trade deal with China.

Canadian officials sounded equally optimistic about a deal to lower US import tariffs, after talks with the USTR and Secretary of Commerce. However, Greer suggested that many of the August 1 tariffs were unlikely to be lowered. Whether that also applies to Canada remains to be seen. The Canadians have a meeting with Commerce Secretary Lutnick this week, but they don’t expect a quick resolution. A follow-up meeting will reportedly be scheduled for late August. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:15

US Factory Orders Tumbled In June By The Most Since COVID

After surging 8.3% higher in May (amid tariff front-running and Boeing orders), US Factory orders tumbled 4.8% in June (as expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

Last month's tariff-front-running surge up 8.3% is the second biggest monthly jump in 69 years.

June's follow-on decline is the biggest MoM drop since the COVID lockdowns as non-defense aircraft orders slowed...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Orders (ex Transports) rose 0.4% MoM (the second monthly rise in a row)...

Source: Bloomberg

Are these headline numbers bad enough to fire the head of the Census Bureau?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:07

Abbott Says He'll Remove Texas Dems Who Fled State To Block GOP Redistricting Vote

Absconding to -- where else -- Chicago, Democratic members of the Texas House of Representatives fled the state on Sunday to break a quorum and prevent a vote on a redistricting plan that promises to boost the GOP's share of seats in the US House of Representatives by five. In response, Gov. Greg Abbott threatened to remove them from office, replace them, and pursue felony charges against them, using extradition powers if need be. 

Texas state Rep. Jolanda “Jo” Jones (D) flips through maps during a public hearing Friday on congressional redistricting in Austin. (Eric Gay/AP)

Their choice of exile location is positively drenched in hypocrisy, as Illinois arguably has the worst gerrymandering in America -- to Democrats' benefit, of course. In 2024, Democrats won 53% of the popular vote in Illinois House races, but took 82% of the seats (14 out of 17).   

This is the map Illinois Democrats drew. But I guess it’s a safe haven from gerrymandering now. https://t.co/isJazY56hQ pic.twitter.com/ozb6cMilcl

— Dr. Rich McCormick for Congress (@RichforGA) August 3, 2025

A quorum is the minimum number of lawmakers present in order to conduct legislative business - a tactic they've used twice before in the 22 years since Republicans have controlled all of Texas state government (efforts which ultimately failed).

The Democrats plan to stay away for two weeks to run the clock on a special legislative session called by Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in order to draw the new map. 

By state law, the Texas House can only conduct business when two-thirds of its 150 members are present, meaning at least 51 of the state's 62 Democrats will stay away. So far, 57 have fled the state, according to State Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D), with members fleeing to Chicago, Boston and New York. All plan to remain out of the state until Aug. 19, when the special session concludes.

"Our goal right now is to kill this session," said Rosenthal. 

Abbott said if the Democrats don't return by 3pm on Monday, he will invoke a Texas attorney general opinion and "remove the missing Democrats from membership in the Texas House," and then pick their successors under power granted in the state constitution. Upping the ante, Abbott said many of the fleeing Democrats may have committed felonies, as they're soliciting donations to cover fines they face under Texas House rules -- arguing that they risk bribery charges for accepting money "to assist in the violation of legislative duties."  To bring them to justice, he said "I will use my full extradition authority to demand the return to Texas of any potential out-of-state felons." Texas AG Ken Paxton (R), meanwhile, has threatened to arrest lawmakers who break quorum, though he won't have jurisdiction over them outside of the state. 

The governor of gerrymandered Illinois is lecturing about gerrymandering and praising obstructionist TX Democrats who fled their state, and his state is now harboring:

"This is a righteous act of courage!" pic.twitter.com/7mOiZv4cAR

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) August 4, 2025

Democrats dismissed the threats. “As the Texas Supreme Court has acknowledged, it is the right of legislators to deny quorum," State Rep. Chris Turner told the Dallas Morning News. "And as Governor Abbott should know, we also have separation of powers in this country.”

"Today this corruption ends," said state Rep. Gene Wu, chairman of the Democratic caucus in his chamber, at a Chicago presser at a county Democratic Party office attended by other Texas Democrats and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. 

“This is not a decision we make lightly, but it is one we make with absolute moral clarity. Governor Abbott...is using an intentionally racist map to steal the voices of millions of Black and Latino Texans, all to execute a corrupt political deal. Apathy is complicity, and we will not be complicit in the silencing of hard-working communities who have spent decades fighting for the power that Trump wants to steal.”

Wu also accused Gov. Greg Abbott of making "hostages" out of the victims of last month's terrible floods in Kerrville, since the voting on the redistricting initiative was placed ahead of handling bills that would deliver financial aid to affected communities. The map has been swiftly advancing during the special legislative session that Abbott convened in July to handle the redistricting and flood response, among many other issues.   

Texans deserve better! I won’t help pass a racist map drawn by Donald Trump and Washington D.C. to silence the voices of Texans. #txlege #redistricting pic.twitter.com/BjLe6BTpqL

— Rep Ramón (@RepRamonRomero) August 3, 2025

That said, Wu admitted he didn't know what Texas Democrats would do if Abbott calls another special session after this one. 

"We don’t know what the next steps are," he said. 

Texas House Democrats are screened before boarding their flight to Chicago on Sunday (Bob Daemmrich for The Texas Tribune)

Republican leaders say the new map is a necessary correction, noting that the state’s population growth has warranted mid-decade changes. But Democrats contend the proposal is a blatant partisan power grab, part of a broader Republican effort in several states to shore up congressional majorities before what is expected to be a volatile midterm season.

Texas Republicans currently control 25 of the state’s 38 congressional seats; the new map would likely give them 30, all of which Mr. Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points in 2024. The GOP holds a narrow 219-212 majority in the U.S. House, with four vacancies, and party leaders see Texas as central to preserving their legislative agenda.

Before the map was unveiled, President Trump said he favored “a very simple redrawing” that would give Republicans more seats. “We pick up five seats [in Texas] but we have a couple other states where we’ll pick up seats also,” he said last month.

Texas state Representative Todd Hunter, a Republican and sponsor of the legislation, called the proposal “a good plan for Texas” and said, “The primary changes … are focused on five districts for partisan purposes.”

DNC Chair Ken Martin - of the party that continually floats packing the Supreme Court when they don't get their way - said, “Republicans thought they could just rig the maps and change the rules without the American people taking notice. They were dead wrong.”

Former Attorney General Eric Holder said Sunday on ABC that Democrats might “have to do things that perhaps in the past I would not have supported” in response to the Texas plan.

“I think we need to respond in kind,” said Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas, and chair of the Democratic Governors Association. 

The new Texas map, unveiled last week under pressure from Trump and Abbott, was approved by a legislative committee on Saturday and was expected to reach the House floor on Tuesday.

In a separate development that could have profound implications for redistricting battles across America, the US Supreme Court last week said it will consider the constitutionality of redistricting that's intentionally aimed at creating "majority-minority districts" with the goal securing power for blacks and Hispanics. In that Louisiana case filed by self-described "non-African American voters," claiming a violation of the Equal Protection Clause, the high court said it will examine whether that kind of redistricting violates the 14th or 15th Amendments to the US Constitution.

In April 2024, a federal panel of judges in the US District Court for the Western District of Louisiana ruled that purposefully creating a majority-black district was "an impermissible racial gerrymander in violation of the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.” The 15th Amendment bars governments from denying or abridging the right to vote based on race or color. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 10:00

Trump Re-Rages At "RIGGED" Jobs Report

President Trump is not done yet with his discussion of the BLS data: (via TruthSocial)

Last weeks Job’s Report was RIGGED, just like the numbers prior to the Presidential Election were Rigged.

That’s why, in both cases, there was massive, record setting revisions, in favor of the Radical Left Democrats.

Those big adjustments were made to cover up, and level out, the FAKE political numbers that were CONCOCTED in order to make a great Republican Success look less stellar!!!

I will pick an exceptional replacement.

Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAGA!

Something is certainly 'off' with the measurements if there have been 25 significant downward revisions in the last 31 months... and every month since Trump was inaugurated...

The BLS' data has certainly been 'different' from the jobless claims data in the last few months...

Of course, the great irony in all of this is that the market is giving Trump exactly what he wanted... a rate-cut....

Source: Bloomberg

September is now pricing at over 90% odds of a cut and The Fed hates to surprise the market. So either FedSpeak will talk down the labor data as an outlier (transitory) or they are going to really struggle to apolitically NOT cut next time they meet.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 09:22

Former FBI Director Wray Hit With Criminal Referral for Lying To Congress

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Former FBI Director Christopher Wray is now facing a criminal referral to the Department of Justice, thanks to a new filing from the Oversight Project—a D.C.-based watchdog group. The group is accusing Wray of lying to Congress and obstructing not one, but two investigations into explosive FBI misconduct.

At the heart of the allegations: the FBI’s role in crafting a now-infamous memo that targeted Catholic Americans as potential domestic threats, and the agency’s apparent efforts to bury an investigation into a Chinese mail-in ballot scheme. These aren’t minor missteps—they’re serious accusations that strike at the core of the bureau’s credibility.

Oversight Project President Mike Howell told Fox News Digital that the criminal referral zeroes in on two specific instances where Wray may have misled Congress—his testimony about the infamous “Richmond memo” that exposed anti-Catholic bias inside the FBI’s Virginia field office, and his comments on a Chinese scheme to distribute fraudulent driver’s licenses ahead of the 2020 election.

Back in July 2023, Wray appeared before the House Judiciary Committee and downplayed the FBI’s memo that outrageously flagged traditional Catholics as possible domestic extremists. That memo, which came out of the Richmond field office, caused national outrage—and for good reason. But according to Howell, Wray’s testimony may not have been just misleading—it may have crossed the line into criminal territory.

"Well, what I can tell you is you’re referring to the Richmond product, which is a single product by a single field office, which as soon as I found out about it, I was aghast and ordered it withdrawn and removed from FBI systems," Wray said in his testimony—which the Oversight Project says is false, or misleading at best.

Rep. Tom Tiffany, R-Wis., pressed Wray on the Richmond memo and so-called "Trump questionnaire," which was circulated at the FBI and asked about allegiance to the president and whether agents had attended any protests or rallies associated with the Jan. 6 Capitol Breach.

"We keep hearing about these ‘isolated examples’ whether it's Richmond Catholics, this [questionnaire] -- isn't it a pattern?" Tiffany asked.

The Oversight Project pointed to Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Charles Grassley’s opening remarks from a June hearing on Biden-era "cover-ups," in which Grassley said the Richmond memo "used the shoddy research of the radical Southern Poverty Law Center to accuse traditional Catholics of being violent extremists."

"Based on records I released the other week, there wasn’t just one FBI document that used biased anti-Catholic sources, but over a dozen," Grassley said. The referral also notes that this remark by Grassley belies Wray’s testimony suggesting a one-off incident.

"And more FBI field offices were involved than we’d been led to believe," Grassley, R-Iowa, said.

A second Richmond memo similar to the first that went unreleased following the backlash was part of a partially redacted series of documents Grassley’s committee transmitted to FBI Director Kash Patel in June. It stated that the bureau "assesses RMVE (Racially Motivated Violent Extremism) interest in RTC (Radical Traditional Catholic) ideology is likely to increase … in the run-up to the [2024] general election cycle."

In a separate statement, the Oversight Project blasted Wray’s congressional testimony as misleading, pointing out that he “failed to reveal the scope of the memo’s production and dissemination” and “failed to reveal the existence of a second, draft product on the same topic intended for external distribution to the whole FBI.” That draft memo, they noted, “was intended for distribution as a Strategic Perspective Executive Analytic Report (‘SPEAR’). It was clearly a separate product.”

According to the Oversight Project, Wray’s statements may have crossed legal lines, specifically alleging violations such as obstruction of congressional proceedings, perjury, and making false statements.

Fox News Digital reached out to a phone number connected to Wray but, unsurprisingly, received no response.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 09:00

Goldman Calls Ferrari Selloff Overdone, Highlights "Unmissable" Entry Point

Ferrari shares have plunged since late last week's quarterly results, which, despite reaffirming full-year guidance, revealed plans to ease vehicle pricing. The move sparked concerns among Citi analysts, who question whether the luxury sports carmaker can maintain its high profitability amid slowing sales volume and weakening pricing power. 

For Goldman analysts, Ferrari's (RACE) 16% plunge over just a few short days, including its largest single-day decline in nine years on Thursday (-12%), has created a potential buying opportunity.

RACE now appears relatively cheap compared to its historical valuation versus the Stoxx Europe Automobiles & Parts Index (SXAP).

Here are the key points from Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster, explaining to clients on Monday morning about a buying opportunity emerging for RACE shares. 

• The current drop in Ferrari's valuation versus the SXAP is one of the biggest ever—only rivaled by the crash in mid-2020.

• This is called a "sector relative de-rating"—Ferrari has underperformed the auto sector unusually sharply.

• This "dislocation" creates a potential buying opportunity.

• Elster suggests high-quality growth stocks like Ferrari are now available at "reasonable prices."

Elster's complete take on RACE:

This dynamic is creating some unmissable opportunities to buy high quality growth stocks at reasonable prices. As far as historic dislocations go, Ferrari's current de-rating vs the SXAP is one of the more notable – this latest sector relative de-rating for RACE is the most severe in its history as a listed company, comparable only to the extremes of mid-2020 (see chart below).

Ferrari's p/e premium vs SXAP has halved, despite a relative eps trend (purple line) that continues to accelerate.

After Thursday's call, bears were focused on the company's admission that they had been compelled to take action on residual value weakness in some regions (including the US) and leaned into the Daytona phase-out headwind that is likely to impact q3. From here, the shares seem likely to find support – for me the key points from the call were that the order book remains sold out through to '27, and cost pressures are seen easing into h2 (making the guide look comfortable even before any additional help from the top-line). The company host a CMD in early October where we will hear more on future electrification plans, as well as see new targets through 2030 which should underscore RACE's credentials as one of Europe's most uniquely dependable earnings growth stories.

Despite short-term headwinds, Ferrari remains fundamentally strong with vehicles sold out through 2027. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 08:40

Biden Handlers Ready To Unleash Trove Of Embarrassing Kamala Stories In Response To Her Book

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Joe Biden’s inner circle are reportedly preparing to spill all the beans on just how awful Kamala Harris was as Vice President should her upcoming book put him in a bad light.

That’s according to journalist Mark Halperin, who claims Biden loyalists have a store of embarrassing stories they’re holding back but will make public should Harris negatively reference Biden’s cognitive decline.

It’s now common knowledge that Biden’s camp, particularly his wife, despise Harris for going along with the Democratic Party coup against Joe.

Biden allies prepared to unload ‘Palinesque’ stories about Kamala Harris if she discusses his cognitive decline: report https://t.co/wkCzzxmhCW pic.twitter.com/Wd4KNyOoZs

— New York Post (@nypost) August 2, 2025

In an appearance on The Morning Meeting show, Halperin stated “I will tell you, and this has never been reported, barely at all: if the Biden people decide that Kamala Harris is coming after Joe Biden, wait till you hear the ‘Palinesque’ stories about how much they tried to help her be prepared to be vice president and be in a position to run.”

Halperin further claimed that the details will expose “How much they decided, ‘Not happening. She’s not up to this.’”

“If the Biden people feel threatened, you will hear stories about Kamala Harris as Vice President that will not make her look good,” Halperin urged.

“It’s not like they’re at war currently, but I’m telling you, if Joe Biden feels threatened, if his people feel threatened by her, this is gonna escalate in a big way,” he added.

Halperin further asserted that the Biden inner circle pulled out all the stops “in trying to help her do the job of vice president.”

“They gave her every opportunity. And they did — they found in some instances that she had some issues,” he emphasized.

Yeah, we noticed.

Harris announced the upcoming memoir this week with several bizarre cackling social media posts and appearances reminding the entire world just how much of a bullet we all dodged.

Meanwhile, one of Biden’s top aides Mike Donilon has revealed that he made a whopping $4 million working for him in 2024 alone.

According to Axios, Donilon was also slated to receive another $4 million if Biden was somehow able to get reelected.

The details came out in closed-door testimony to the House Oversight Committee which is investigating the cover up of Biden’s cognitive decline.

Scoop: Top Biden aide was promised $8 million for 2024 win https://t.co/PiMedrKiFK

— Sean Spicer (@seanspicer) August 1, 2025

Is it any wonder they were so keen on hiding him from the media?

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 08:20

Futures Rise, Recovering From Friday's Dump On Rising Rate Cut Expectations

Futures are higher as markets rebound from last week’s sell-off amid increased expectations the Fed will ride to the rescue with rate cuts following Friday’s dismal US jobs data. As of 7:45am ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.7% after the index had its biggest decline since May on Friday. Pre-market, Mag7 and Semis are outperforming with Cyclicals over Defensives. Bond yields are 2-3bp higher as the USD falls again. Commodities are weaker with Energy underperforming as OPEC+ approves another supply hike. This is a catalyst-light week with tomorrow’s ISM the most important and heightened focus on weekly claims with the Fed spotlighting the unemployment rate.

In premarket trading, all Magnificent Seven stocks are higher alongside index futures (Amazon +1.8% after a Friday selloff, Nvidia +1.2%, Meta Platforms +1.1%, Tesla +1%, Alphabet +0.8%, Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.8%). here are the other notable premarket movers: 

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) is down 0.6% after Warren Buffett’s company took a $3.8 billion impairment on its Kraft Heinz stake.
• Boeing (BA) falls 0.3% as workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories strike for the first time in almost three decades.
• Blade Air Mobility Inc. (BLDE) is up 16% after Bloomberg reported that Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) is exploring an acquisition of the helicopter ride-share operator. Joby shares are up 5%.
• CommScope (COMM) shares climbed 42% before being halted after reaching a deal to sell its broadband connectivity arm for about $10.5 billion in cash to Amphenol Corp. as it seeks to cut its debt. Amphenol (APH) gains 4%.
• Kodiak Gas (KGS) rises 5% after the announcement that the provider of natural gas compression services will join the S&P Small Cap 600 Index.
• Opendoor (OPEN) climbs 14% as much as 20% after the company regained compliance with the Nasdaq exchange.
• Spotify (SPOT) gains 3% after the audio-streaming company said it will increase the monthly cost of premium subscriptions in some markets.
• Steelcase Inc. (SCS) soars 45 % after HNI (HNI) agreed to buy the company. HNI shares are down 20%.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) rises 4% as management raised its earnings forecast after quarterly profit unexpectedly rose as a boom in US chicken continues to offset losses in the beef business.
• Wayfair (W) rises 11% after the e-commerce firm posted second quarter profit that sailed past estimates.

Friday’s tumble on Wall Street, which was sparked by rising US unemployment and slower job creation, boosted bets for a Fed rate cut to prop up the market economy. Traders rushed into Treasuries despite worries about the inflationary effect of Trump’s tariffs, which have kept policy makers in hawkish mode. 

“We’re buyers of pullbacks and bullish the next 12 months,” Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note. “We think the Fed will eventually transition to cuts. Friday may be all we get to the downside for now; that is, until the next payroll number or other weaker, lagging growth data is potentially revealed.”

Overnight-indexed swaps signaled more than 80% odds of a reduction next month while fully pricing in one more cut by year-end. Some market-watchers are even anticipating the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points, twice the regular amount. That may be too optimistic, given the outlook for inflation and growth, according to Pictet Wealth Management.

Separately, Trump said he will announce a new Fed governor and jobs data statistician in the coming days, two appointments that could shape his economic agenda. The Fed announced Friday that Adriana Kugler will step down from her position as a governor, giving Trump an opportunity to install a policymaker who aligns with his demands for lower interest rates. Also on Friday, Trump fired chief labor statistician Erika McEntarfer hours after labor market data showed weak jobs growth based in part on steep downward revisions for May and June.

Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sounded a cautiously optimistic note on discussions with China on rare earth flows, following trade talks that further steadied ties between the economies. “Things have changed dramatically in the trade environment globally, not only the US,” veteran investor Mark Mobius said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “People are looking at this much more realistically. There’s going to be a lot of thinking about how to make things fairer for all countries involved.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose about 0.6%. Banks led the advance after UK lenders won a major reprieve in a pivotal UK car finance case, with Lloyds Banking Group Plc surging more than 7%. As noted above, the Swiss stocks benchmark, meanwhile, fell as the market reopened after a holiday, on worries about the impact from US President Donald Trump’s punitive 39% export tariff and a push for drugmakers to lower prices. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• UK lenders including Lloyds and Barclays advance after they won a major reprieve in a pivotal UK car finance case; Jefferies analyst Jonathan Pierce says the ruling is a “huge win for industry” that shows “common sense”
• Clarkson shares rise as much as 6.4% to the highest level since March after the shipping-services company posted results ahead of expectations and reiterated its guidance, which analysts at Panmure Liberum say is reassuring
• Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 2.9%, paring some of last week’s record 32% drop. Goldman Sachs analysts say bull/bear scenarios for the Danish drugmaker “suggest upside risk”
• TeamViewer shares rise as much as 3.5% as Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades the German software company to buy as it sees momentum improving in the coming quarters and says this isn’t factored into the valuation
• Metlen Energy and Metals’ shares rose in its debut on the London Stock Exchange on Monday after moving its primary listing from Athens, although the trading in the stock was relatively thin
• Swiss stocks are down as the market resumes trading for the first time since President Trump unexpectedly slapped punitive 39% tariffs on the country. Roche, ABB and UBS are among the biggest decliners in the SMI Index
• Stabilus shares fall as much as 12% after the German machinery and equipment maker’s 3Q earnings missed expectations, according to Bernstein, while it narrowed its full-year adjusted Ebit margin and revenue forecast
• Auction Technology Group drops as much as 22%, the most since 2023, after the online marketplace operator downgraded its margin guidance for the full year, which analysts at Panmure Liberum said will pressure consensus

Swiss stocks slumped as the market reopened after a holiday, on worries about the impact from US President Donald Trump’s punitive 39% export tariff and a push for drugmakers to lower prices.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities traded in a narrow range, with Japanese stocks leading declines while South Korean shares rose after growing optimism a controversial tax plan may be revised. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained slightly, erasing an earlier loss of as much as 0.5%. Advances in Tencent and Nintendo helped boost the regional benchmark. MUFG was among the biggest drags along with other Japanese large caps including Recruit and Hitachi.
Key equity indexes fell more than 1% in Tokyo while the yen climbed, as Friday’s weak US payrolls data raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Korean benchmarks rebounded as a petition to withdraw planned corporate and capital-gains tax hikes drew strong support. The regional MSCI Asia gauge was set to snap a six-day decline, as investors digested a slew of new US tariffs. Shares rose in Hong Kong as investors looked beyond the Politburo meeting, seeking fresh catalysts amid ongoing tariff negotiations between US and China. Mainland investors also poured a record amount of money into exchange-traded funds that track the market in the Asian financial hub. 

In FX, the dollar was steady after a gauge of the greenback’s strength plunged 0.9% on Friday. The Swiss franc underperforms, falling 0.5% against the greenback having only derived brief support from a larger-than-expected rise in CPI. 

In rates, treasuries pared last week’s gains as traders braced for a hefty slate of bond sales this week. Yields on the 10-year notes climbed 1 basis point to 4.23% after dropping 16 basis points Friday.  Gilts dip but German government bonds are steady.  Treasury new-issue auctions this week begin Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes, followed by $42 billion 10-year notes and $25 billion 30-year bonds Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, WTI crude futures slide 1.3% to near $66.50 a barrel after OPEC+’s latest supply increase. Spot gold is steady near $3,360/oz. 

Today's economic data slate includes June factory orders at 10am. Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Ahead this week are appearances by Cook, Daly, Bostic, Musalem and Bowman.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.9%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
• DAX +1.3%
• CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.24%
• VIX -1.4 points at 18.99
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1210.36
• euro -0.1% at $1.1571
• WTI crude -1.1% at $66.62/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump said he would remove Fed Chair Powell in a heartbeat but added that removing Powell would disturb the market, while he stated Powell will most likely stay on as Chair, and he will appoint a new Fed Chair once Powell’s term ends.
• Trump said he is to announce a replacement for Fed's Kugler in the next couple of days after the Fed announced on Friday that Governor Kugler is resigning from the Fed board effective August 8th.
• Fed’s Williams said he is going into the September meeting with an open mind and that modestly restrictive policy is still needed, while he added the unusually large downward revisions in May and June payrolls were really the news in the report.
• Apple is changing course and exploring in-house AI services with the goal of creating a new ChatGPT-like search experience. A team is building an “answer engine” — a system capable of crawling the web to respond to general-knowledge questions. BBG
• Apple CEO Cook said he intends to win the AI race and will make the appropriate investments to do so.
• Boeing defence workers are set to strike on Monday after the company’s St. Louis employees rejected the latest offer, while Boeing stated that it is prepared for a strike and has fully implemented its contingency plan: BBG
• Chinese exporters are reconsidering investment in offshore factories as US tariffs on alternative hubs and new restrictions on “transshipment” force a sweeping rethink of supply chain in Asia. FT
• China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to jet fighters. WSJ
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday the government is ready to compile an extra budget to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs, a move that would add strain to the country's already worsening finances. RTRS
• The Swiss government is open to revising its offer to the United States in response to planned heavy tariffs, Business Minister Guy Parmelin said, as experts warned the 39% import duties announced by President Donald Trump could trigger a recession in Switzerland. RTRS
• Brazil’s President Lula da Silva said he’s open to trade talks with Trump but only if his country is treated as an equal. BBG
• Trump this week is set to name his replacements for the Kugler’s open seat the Fed and the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. FT
• The US is “about halfway” toward restoring flows of rare earth magnets from China, USTR Jamieson Greer said. A US and Canada deal is also possible, with Trump and PM Mark Carney expected to speak soon, Canada’s trade envoy Dominic LeBlanc told CBS. BBG
• Boeing workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories went on strike around midnight after union members rejected the company’s modified contract offer. BBG
• A conservative think tank run by former US VP Pence is reportedly lobbying Hill offices against a push to make gambling losses 100% tax-deductible, according to Punchbowl.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer said the trade truce deadline for China is still under discussion.
• Canada’s trade envoy LeBlanc said PM Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump are expected to talk “over the next number of days” after a failure by their countries to reach a deal before the Aug. 1st tariff deadline, while LeBlanc plans to speak with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and still sees a chance to ease Trump tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
• Canadian ministers are to discuss trade in meetings with Mexico's President Sheinbaum and government officials, according to The Globe and Mail.
• Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said they will have a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in the week ahead and will clarify in the meeting how the Brazilian justice system works.
• China is reportedly choking the supply of critical minerals to Western defence companies, according to WSJ.
• Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said the US is attempting to alter the rules and norms of global trade, while he stated that waiting for a deal in writing might have delayed a levy cut.
• EU said to be awaiting US President Trump's actions on its car tariffs and exemptions this week, according to Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following a quiet weekend of newsflow and last Friday's disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data. ASX 200 was subdued amid underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and with weakness also seen in energy, Industrials and tech, although losses were stemmed by resilience in defensives and miners. Nikkei 225 underperformed after recent currency strength and briefly dipped back beneath the 40k level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat amid earnings and corporate updates, while the PBoC announced last week that it is to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds and promote cross-border financing facilitation, as well as strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies.

Top Asian News

• China could step up monetary easing efforts in H2 2025 by cutting benchmark interest rates and banks’ RRR in order to guide overall financing costs lower and support the economy, according to Shanghai Securities News.
• India's capital markets regulator called for structural reforms to the country's vast derivatives market, according to FT.
• PBoC did not purchase or sell Chinese sovereign bonds on the open market in July; PBoC conducted CNY 1.4tln of outright reverse repos in July on the open market.

European equities (STOXX 600 +0.6%) began the week in the green (ex. SMI), and have continued to climb higher as the session progressed. The SMI (-0.6%) underperforms as it reacts to the US unexpectedly raising tariffs on Swiss goods to 39% (from 31%); as a reminder, Switzerland was on holiday last Friday. European sectors began mixed, though as the session has progressed, the picture looks more positive. Banks reside at the top and Healthcare at the bottom; the latter is hampered by heavyweight Novartis (-0.5%), given the broader pressure across Swiss stocks. Stateside, equity futures (ES +0.7%, NQ +0.8%, RTY +0.9%) have been firming throughout the morning with some modest outperformance in the RTY after closing with significant losses on Friday. Tesla (TSLA) sold 67,886 China-made vehicles in July (vs. 71,599 in June), according to China's CPCA.

Top European News

• UK's FCA proposed a redress scheme for motor finance claims which could cost banks up to GBP 18bln, according to FT.
• Germany's engineering association VDMA said engineering orders -5% Y/Y in June (domestic -5%, foreign -5%); engineering orders -2% Y/Y in April-June (domestic -2%, foreign -1%).

FX

• DXY has started the week off on the front foot but gains are very modest in comparison to the post-payrolls downside on Friday, which saw the index close lower by 1.4%. The knock-on impact to Fed pricing means that markets price an 89% chance of a 25bps cut next month and a total of 59bps of loosening by year-end. This also comes in the context of a potentially more dovish composition of the FOMC with US President Trump set to name Kugler's replacement in the coming days. Elsewhere on the personnel front, Trump is also set to announce the replacement for the head of the BLS, whom he fired on Friday, claiming that they "faked job numbers" before the election in an attempt to help his political rivals. DXY has been unable to make its way back onto a 99 handle with a current session peak at 98.97.
• EUR/USD is on the backfoot after a choppy week last week, which saw EUR slide against the USD in the wake of the EU-US trade deal before mounting a partial recovery on Friday post-payrolls. The macro narrative surrounding the EU remains as it was, and that could remain the case with little in the way of market-moving scheduled releases for the Eurozone this week. EUR/USD failed to crack 1.16 to the upside, topping out at 1.1597 and has since slipped back below its 200DMA at 1.1581 with a session low at 1.1551.
• After a wild week last week, which saw an initial rally in USD/JPY (on account of broad USD strength and a dovish reaction to the BoJ policy announcement) swiftly reversed in the wake of the US NFP report, USD/JPY is attempting to clamber off the lows. USD/JPY delved as low as 147.07 overnight (vs. Friday's 147.28 trough) but has since recovered to levels closer to 148 as the USD attempts to atone for recent losses. Overnight, comments from Japanese Trade Negotiator Akazawa stated that the recently announced trade agreement between the US and Japan is not a legally binding commitment. This has raised some doubts over how rigidly Japan will stick to its existing pledges with the US.
• GBP is fractionally lower vs. the USD with incremental macro drivers from the UK on the light side. That will change on Thursday with the latest BoE policy announcement and MPR, which is 82% priced for a 25bps reduction. Within the vote split, Morgan Stanley expects a 1:7:1 outcome with Mann voting for a hold and Dhingra voting for a 50bp cut. Additionally, the desk expects unchanged messaging and an uplift to near-term inflation forecasts. Cable has returned to a 1.32 handle but is still enjoying the bulk of Friday's gains, trading in a 1.3254-93 range.
• Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD but holding onto a bulk of their post-NFP gains. AUD is slightly more resilient than NZD following a rise in the latest Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge.

Fixed Income

• USTs are lower, attempting to pare back some of the post-NFP upside seen on Friday, but with focus also on the dovish implications of Fed’s Kugler resignation and Trump’s firing of the BLS Chief. On the former, it was announced that Fed’s Kugler is to resign from her role at the Fed (sparking a slight dovish reaction on Friday); thereafter, US President Trump said he will announce a replacement in the coming days. Traders will keep an eye out for the appointment, as it provides Trump the opportunity to shove in his favoured candidate to replace Powell, once his term ends. On the Trump-BLS saga; after blaming (and then firing) the BLS Chief for a poor NFP report, Trump confirmed he will be announcing a new appointee in the coming days. Price action today has been relatively contained and trades at the mid-point of a 111-31+ to 112-12 range; the peak for the day surpassed Friday’s high at 112-11, and further upside will bring into play the high from 1 July at 112-12+.
• Bunds are downbeat, in-fitting with global peers. Currently trading in a 129.50 to 130.06 range, which is well within Friday’s confines of 129.12 to 130.21. Newsflow has been very light today, aside from EZ Sentix Index, which printed at -3.7, far below the expected 8.0; the Sentix director manager described the recent EU-US trade deal as a “mood killer”. Commentary over the weekend came via ECB’s Patsalides, who said that the EZ continues to remain resilient despite trade woes, though he added that “the environment remains uncertain”. On the latest ECB policy decision (where the Bank opted to keep rates steady), Patsalides said it would be “premature to interpret this decision as a pause”.
• Gilts are also trading in tandem with peers, holding a bearish bias but with price action fairly muted. UK paper is currently lower by around 12 ticks in a 92.24 to 92.49 range. Newsflow has been exceptionally quiet so far, but all attention will be on Thursday’s BoE policy announcement.

Commodities

• Choppy trade in the crude complex and now ultimately softer following the initial modest gap lower at the reopen in the aftermath of the OPEC+ decision on Sunday and after the NFP and ISM-induced slide on Friday. To recap, OPEC+ said in a statement that eight members will raise oil output by 547,000 bpd in September (some sources last week suggested it could be lower). The eight countries are scheduled to meet again on September 7th, where they may consider reinstating another 1.65mln bpd of cuts that are currently in place until the end of 2026, according to Reuters sources. WTI resides in a 66.56-67.62/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.90-69.88/bbl range.
• Mostly softer trade across precious metals as the Dollar claws back some ground after Friday's data-induced losses. Price action this morning has been fairly contained as the yellow metal takes a breather, with support found near its 50 DMA this morning, as spot gold resides in a USD 3,345.00-3,364.81/oz range at the time of writing.
• Mixed trade across base metals amid quieter weekend newsflow and a relatively uneventful European session thus far in terms of macro impulses. Little move was seen on reports that China could step up monetary easing efforts in H2 2025 by cutting benchmark interest rates and banks’ RRR in order to guide overall financing costs lower and support the economy, according to Shanghai Securities News. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,635.10-9,696.80/t range.
• OPEC+ said in a statement that eight members are to raise oil output by 548k bpd in September, citing steady global economic and current healthy market fundamentals, while it stated that eight OPEC+ countries are to meet next on September 7th and sources noted the group may discuss returning another layer of cuts of 1.65mln bbls which are in place until end-2026, according to Reuters.
• Kuwait’s Oil Minister praised the OPEC+ decision to raise output and said the meeting reflects continued coordination among participating countries to ensure the stability of the oil market, while he added that the decision was based on a thorough analysis of market data regarding production inventories and future expectations.
• Libya’s Sharara oilfield reached its highest production since 2018 at nearly 311k bpd.
• Azerbaijan is to export 1.2bcm of gas to Syria each year from the BP-led Shah Deniz gas field.
• China rejects US request to stop importing oil from Iran and Russia, according to Al Hadath.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Hamas said it won’t disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established. It was separately reported that Hamas’s armed wing said it is ready to respond positively and cooperate with any request from the Red Cross to deliver food to hostages in Gaza, while it added that Israel must stop aerial operations during the delivery of aid to hostages.
• Jordan’s armed forces said two armed people were killed after a foiled infiltration attempt through its border with Syria.
• Syrian Defence Ministry said an attack by Syrian Defence Forces in the northern city of Mamjib injured four army personnel and three civilians.
• A senior official from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit Iran within the next 10 days, according to Iran International, cited by the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin said, "We're not talking about any kind of nuclear escalation"; "it's obvious that US submarines are already on combat duty anyway". Contacts with Witkoff are always useful and important. US mediation efforts in the Ukraine conflict are very important. Putin may meet Trump’s envoy Witkoff this week. Everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric. No desire to get into a polemic with Trump over nuclear submarines.
• The Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured the village of Oleksandro Kalynove in Eastern Ukraine.
• IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant heard explosions and saw smoke coming from a nearby location where the plant said one of its auxiliary facilities was attacked.
• Ukraine’s military said it struck Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery again.
• US President Trump said there will be sanctions if Russia does not stop the war, but added that Russia seems to be good at avoiding sanctions, while he stated that special envoy Witkoff will be going to Russia on Wednesday or Thursday.
• US President Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions on Friday, "just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements” from Russia's Medvedev are more than just that.
• Indian officials said they will continue to buy Russian oil despite threats of additional tariffs from US President Trump’s administration.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Jun Factory Orders, est. -4.8%, prior 8.2%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durable Goods Orders, est. -9.3%, prior -9.3%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.7%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.4%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The Extel survey opens in 11 months, if you value our…. … ok..... Too soon. Sorry. Hope you all had a nice weekend. Since we last spoke on Friday, I’ve played 5 rounds of golf as my family were on a “no Dads allowed” camping long weekend in Devon with a number of other families. My back and knees now hurt a lot but my handicap is back down to the lowest it’s ever been at 1.7, 40 years after starting the game. So there’s still life in a body that needs twos knee replacements and back fusion surgery.

Markets may need a little physio this week to get through all the things being thrown at it. August has opened with extraordinary developments, despite only one full trading day having passed. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler on Friday has created an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a new board member. This individual could potentially be groomed as a successor to Chair Powell or, at the very least, represent another dovish voter. While last week’s FOMC vote was 9-2 against a rate cut, it’s worth noting that the two dissenters—Waller and Bowman—were both appointed during Trump’s first term. The significant revisions in Friday’s payroll release have also increased the likelihood that other members may reconsider their hawkish positions. The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 87% on Friday, up from around 40% before the payroll data was released, and market pricing for cuts by year-end rose from 18 basis points to 41bps.

Our economists point out that although the usual nomination and confirmation process for a Fed Governor can take months, Section 10.5 of the Federal Reserve Act allows the President to temporarily fill vacancies during Senate recesses. Such appointments would last until the next session of the Senate. With the Senate scheduled to be in recess from 4 August to 1 September, Trump could theoretically appoint a new Governor through January 2027 without going through the traditional confirmation process. However, the Senate may hold pro forma sessions during this period to block such appointments, leaving some uncertainty about how unilateral Trump’s actions could be and how long the process might take. Nonetheless, it seems likely that a dovish figure will eventually fill the vacant seat.

Adding to the upheaval, Trump dismissed Bureau of Labour Statistics head McEntarfer, accusing her of political bias following the dramatic -258,000 revisions to the previous two months’ payroll figures—the largest on record outside the pandemic. The revisions were partly attributed to a declining initial response rate to the survey, which has made early releases increasingly provisional and less reliable. On Friday, yields fell sharply, with 2-year Treasuries dropping by 27.5 basis points and 10-year Treasuries by 15.8 basis points - the largest one day fall in US 10yr yields since August 2 last year when the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% and triggered the Sahm rule. However, the replacement of both a Fed Governor and the BLS chief could ultimately impact the ease of funding the US twin deficits. This may hinder long-end rallies unless there is a significant economic slowdown. For now, though, seasonal trends in August remain supportive so it’s not recommended to lean too much against it for now. See our piece on this here from last week. Yesterday Trump said he will announce both new appointments in the coming few days. So certainly one to watch.

Looking ahead, the new 7 August trade deadline looms, with several new deals expected to take effect. This date also marks the implementation of recent trade agreements. The week also features key economic indicators from the US and Europe, trade data from China, and wage figures from Japan. A notable event will be the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday. Typically, the week following payrolls is quieter for US data, but given Friday’s shock revisions, commentary from Fed officials may prove more influential than the data itself. On Wednesday, Governor Cook and Boston’s Collins, a voting member, will participate in a panel discussion alongside a Board Member from the Central Bank of Chile. San Francisco’s Daly, a non-voter, will speak at an economic summit. On Thursday, Atlanta’s Bostic, also a non-voter, will discuss monetary policy, and on Friday, St. Louis’s Musalem, a voter, will take part in a fireside chat.

Bostic, speaking after Friday’s jobs report, expressed concern about the slowdown evident in the employment data. However, he stated that he would not have changed last week’s decision to hold rates steady and is not yet prepared to revise his projections for near-term rate cuts.

Among the US data releases that matter, Tuesday’s ISM report (forecast at 51.2 versus 50.8 previously), particularly its employment component, and Thursday’s initial jobless claims (225,000 versus 218,000) will be closely watched in light of the payroll revisions. Tuesday also brings the international trade balance (-$75 billion versus -$71.5 billion), which will include country and product-level details. These will allow for a recalculation of the average tariff rate. Our economists estimate that, as of 7 August, when country-specific rates take effect, the average tariff rate will be 19.6% on a static basis using 2024 trade weights. However, this is likely an upper bound, and after adjusting for overestimation, the more realistic average is closer to 15%. See their piece here for more on this.

Thursday’s US data also includes productivity (expected at +2.5% versus -1.5%) and unit labour costs (+1.0% versus +6.6%). In Europe, the highlight will be the Bank of England’s rate decision. Our UK chief economist expects the central bank to cut the Bank Rate to 4%, marking the fifth quarter-point reduction in the current cycle. See his preview here. Additional European data will come from trade and industrial production figures across key Eurozone economies, with Germany’s factory orders due on Wednesday. CPI prints are expected in Switzerland today and in Sweden on Thursday.

In Asia, the focus will be on China’s trade balance, due Thursday, and Japan’s wage data on Wednesday. Our economists anticipate Chinese exports to slow to 5% year-on-year in July, down from 5.8% in June. The Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday and the minutes from the June meeting tomorrow.
On the earnings front, the US season has passed its peak, but notable reports are expected from Eli Lilly, Palantir, and AMD. Other S&P 500 names reporting include McDonald’s, Walt Disney, and Uber. In Europe, attention will be on Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Rheinmetall. Novo’s report on Wednesday will be particularly interesting following last week’s profit warning. In Japan, Toyota and Sony are set to report. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest energy company by market capitalisation, will release its results tomorrow.

Asian markets are mixed this morning but DM futures are higher after the difficult Friday session. The Nikkei (-1.49%) and the S&P/ASX200 (-0.11%) are lower but the Hang Seng (+0.50%) has rebounded after its worst seven-day losing streak since July 2021. In Korea, the Kospi (+1.04%) is managing to outperform as a petition to withdraw the proposed capital gains tax hike received more than 50,000 signatures, enough to trigger a standing committee review. The CSI 300 (+0.05%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) are trading higher. On the rates side, JGBs are following Friday’s global yield rally with the 10-year yield -5bps this morning. 30-year JGBs are unchanged though, after gaining +9.1bps since last Tuesday. Equity futures are higher this morning with the S&P 500 up +0.38% and the Nasdaq up +0.44%, with European futures also higher by +0.52%.

Oil prices are relatively flat after news that OPEC+ endorsed an additional 547,000 barrels per day production increase from September. A decent boost but broadly in line with expectations.

Recapping last week now, and the lead-up to the 1 August tariff deadline saw a flurry of announcements involving major US trading partners. The EU agreed to a 15% tariff on most goods and pledged $750 billion in energy imports and $600 billion in US investments. South Korea committed to a $350 billion investment fund for the US, including $150 billion for shipbuilding. Other countries faced steeper tariffs: India at 25%, Switzerland at 39%, Taiwan at 20%, and Canada’s tariffs rising from 25% to 35%. Mexico received a 90-day extension, maintaining its 25% tariff rate in the meantime.

Friday’s payroll shock sent 2-year Treasuries down 27.5 basis points (24.2bps on the week) and 10-year Treasuries down 15.8bps (17.2bps weekly). In Europe, Q2 flash GDP showed a slight improvement, with eurozone growth at +0.1% quarter-on-quarter versus 0.0% expected. German Bunds fell 3.9bps (-1.6bps Friday), French OATs dropped 3.8bps (-0.2bps Friday), and Italian BTPs declined 4.0bps (though rose 0.4bps Friday).

Equities saw notable divergence at the micro level in the heart of results season. Novo Nordisk, which began the week as Europe’s second most valuable company, plunged 30% intraday on Tuesday and ended the week down 31.7%, now ranking seventh. Semiconductor stocks were also weak, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.09% (-1.43% Friday). On the positive side, Microsoft rose 2.02% (though fell 1.76% Friday) and Meta gained 5.24% (down 3.18% Friday). Apple and Amazon underperformed, falling 5.38% and 7.21% respectively on the week. Overall, markets ended the week lower, particularly on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 2.36% (-1.60% Friday) and the Nasdaq down 2.17% (-2.24% Friday). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 declined 2.57% (-1.89% Friday), while Japanese equities followed suit, with the Nikkei falling 1.58% (-0.66% Friday).

The dollar was one of the week’s winners, with the dollar index climbing +1.52% (though down 0.84% Friday), marking its longest winning streak since February. The euro weakened by 1.32% over the week but rebounded 1.51% on Friday following the US developments.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 08:06

Tesla Fined $243 Million By Florida Jury In Autopilot Crash Lawsuit

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tesla shares responsibility for an accident involving its vehicle’s Autopilot system, and must pay $243 million as compensation, a jury from the District Court, Southern District of Florida, said in an Aug. 1 verdict.

The logo of Tesla at a Tesla Super Charging station in Saint-Herblain near Nantes, France, on March 27, 2025. Stephane Mahe/Reuters

The case stems from a collision involving a 2019 Tesla Model S equipped with automatic driving features, in which Tesla’s Autopilot allowed the car to “navigate without driver input,” according to a June 30 court document.

The incident took place on April 25, 2019, when George McGee, the driver and owner of a 2019 Tesla Model S, slammed into a parked Chevrolet Tahoe, which then went on to strike two individuals—Naibel Benavides Leon and Dillon Angulo. While Leon died in the accident, Angulo suffered “significant injuries.”

Subsequently, Leon’s representative and Angulo filed separate lawsuits against Tesla, which were eventually consolidated into a single lawsuit in March 2024. Out of the four charges laid out in the lawsuit, the court allowed two product liability claims against Tesla to move forward—defective design and failure to warn.

On Aug. 1, a Florida jury agreed that Tesla placed the 2019 Model S in the market “with a defect which was a legal cause of damage” to the victims, according to the verdict form.

They found that there was negligence on the part of driver McGee as well, which was also a legal cause of damage to Leon and Angulo.

Tesla was assigned 33 percent of the accident’s responsibility by the jury, with McGee sharing 67 percent.

Commenting on the verdict, law firm Singleton Schreiber LLP, representing the victims in the lawsuit, said in an Aug. 2 post that the jury “determined that Tesla was 33 percent at fault for allowing Autopilot use on roads it wasn’t designed for and failing to adequately monitor driver attention.”

The jury awarded $35 million to Leon’s mother and $24 million to her father. For Angulo, the jury awarded $70 million in damages. In total, the plaintiffs were awarded $129 million, according to the Aug. 1 verdict.

Since Tesla shared 33 percent of the responsibility, the company is due to pay a third of the $129 million, which comes to around $43 million.

Plus, the jury also imposed a $200 million punitive damage on Tesla, bringing the total to $243 million.

In an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, Tesla criticized the jury’s decision.

“Today’s verdict is wrong and only works to set back automotive safety and jeopardize Tesla’s and the entire industry’s efforts to develop and implement life-saving technology. We plan to appeal given the substantial errors of law and irregularities at trial,” a company spokesperson said.

“Even though this jury found that the driver was overwhelmingly responsible for this tragic accident in 2019, the evidence has always shown that this driver was solely at fault because he was speeding, with his foot on the accelerator—which overrode Autopilot—as he rummaged for his dropped phone without his eyes on the road.”

Tesla said that no car, from 2019 or today, would have been able to prevent the crash.

The company pointed out that the car’s driver had “admitted and accepted responsibility” for the incident since day one.

Tesla said the punitive damages in the case will only amount to $127.5 million, lower than the $200 million mentioned in the jury verdict.

“Florida law is explicit that punitive damages have been all but eliminated in product liability cases such as this one, so we are confident that the punitive damage award at a minimum, and likely this whole verdict, will be overturned by the appellate court,” the company said.

Autopilot Under Scrutiny

The plaintiffs’ lead lawyer, Brett Schreiber, acknowledged that the driver, George McGee, was negligent, but said that Tesla was at fault nonetheless.

He said Tesla allowed drivers to act recklessly by not disengaging the Autopilot as soon as they begin to show signs of distraction, and by allowing them to use the system on smaller roads that it was not designed for, like the one McGee was driving on.

Tesla’s decision to even use the term Autopilot showed it was willing to mislead people and take big risks with their lives because the system only helps drivers with lane changes, slowing a car, and other tasks, falling far short of driving the car itself, he said.

The Epoch Times reached out to the plaintiffs’ attorney for comment and did not receive a response by publication time.

McGee had previously settled with the victims and was cited for careless driving, according to the Aug. 1 post from Singleton Schreiber LLP.

Tesla has faced regulatory scrutiny over the safety of its vehicles.

In April 2024, the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said Tesla’s Autopilot system contributed to at least 467 vehicle crashes, including 14 deaths and several serious injuries.

In January, NHTSA announced it was investigating a feature on Tesla vehicles that allows drivers to move their vehicles remotely, via a phone app. The department had received a complaint, alleging that a crash occurred, from a person using this feature.

On its website, Tesla says the Autopilot system is far safer than human drivers.

“In Q2 2025, we recorded one crash for every 6.69 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology. For Tesla drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, we recorded one crash for every 963,000 miles driven,” it said.

The company said that setting a vehicle on Autopilot does not mean the driver doesn’t have to pay attention.

“Autopilot is a driver assistance system that is intended to be used only with a fully attentive driver. It does not turn a Tesla into a fully autonomous vehicle. Before enabling Autopilot, you must agree to ‘keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times’ and to always ‘maintain control and responsibility for your vehicle,’” it said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 08:05