Zero Hedge

Anti-Woke Investment Firm Targets Starbucks Over DEI-Focused Hiring Practices

Anti-Woke Investment Firm Targets Starbucks Over DEI-Focused Hiring Practices

Azoria Partners, a new anti-woke investment firm, is launching an ETF aimed at excluding companies that prioritize diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) over financial performance. The fund, co-founded by James Fishback and Asaf Abramovich, will invest in all S&P 500 companies, excluding those with DEI hiring targets.

The firm's Meritocracy ETF, which will be available in 2025, will specifically exclude about three dozen companies from the S&P 500 that have implemented DEI hiring quotas. Among those to be excluded are Starbucks, Best Buy, Vanguard, and BlackRock. Azoria is reportedly finalizing a roughly $25 million venture round.

“We believe companies focused on race and gender-based hiring rather than skill and merit are pursuing value-destructive behavior," Fishback said this week in an interview with Fox News.

In a fiery op-ed for the New York Post, Fishback lambasted corporations that use DEI criteria in hiring decisions, claiming they are likely to underperform. "If you commit to hiring on race and gender and not merit, your stock will continue to underperform. Our ETF will call you out," he said. "Our goal is to offer investors a portfolio of companies that prioritize hiring the best and brightest, regardless of their appearance."

Fishback pointed to Starbucks as a key example. In 2020, the coffee giant announced a goal of achieving 30% racial and ethnic diversity in its workforce. "What does that have to do with making coffee at a profit in America?" Fishback remarked.

"You hire the best and brightest no matter what they look like." While the S&P 500 has surged nearly 100% over the last five years, Starbucks’ stock has only risen by 12%, which Fishback attributes to the company’s focus on DEI policies rather than talent and performance.

Fishback also urged Starbucks' new CEO, Brian Niccol, to reassess the company’s DEI strategy and return to a merit-based approach. "The espresso machines and the Wi-Fi aren't the issues. It’s the people at the core of the business," Fishback said.

Fishback, a supporter of President-elect Donald Trump, recently expounded on his vision for Azoria Partners during a luncheon at Mar-a-Lago. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood was among those who attended the gathering at the posh Palm Beach club.

Fishback made headlines this year when he sued his former employer, Greenlight Capital, alleging that the hedge fund run by David Einhorn hindered his fundraising efforts by misstating his role during a reference check.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 06:55

Five Falsehoods About The Anti-ESG Movement

Five Falsehoods About The Anti-ESG Movement

Authored by Stefan Padfield via RealClearMarkets.com,

Proponents of ESG (environmental, social, and governance factors used in corporate decision-making) argue they are merely improving long-term decision-making.

Meanwhile, critics argue that ESG is in practice a Trojan horse for leftist agendas.

However, rather than debating critics, ESG proponents frequently resort to false narratives and ad hominem attacks.

The newly elected Trump administration should not be misled by these lies.

For example, this past July, an article titled Anti-ESG Proposals Surged in 2024 But Earned Less Support  attacked shareholder proposals critical of ESG, including many from my employer.

What follows are responses to five misrepresentations about the anti-ESG movement contained in that piece, which was authored by Heidi Welsh.

False Claim #1: The “Anti-ESG” Movement is Motivated by Animus Toward LGBTQ People

Welsh claims that “LGBTQ antipathy” and “a strong animus against LGBTQ people cropped up” in our proposals. These are lies that may constitute actionable defamation because our concerns are not only legitimate, but pro-child.

For example, the Trevor Project still states the following on its website despite the underlying supporting research having been effectively debunked: "Medical affirming care can include [1] treatments that postpone physical changes [i.e. puberty blockers] as well as [2] treatments that lead to changes that would affirm one’s gender identity [i.e. surgery]" (citing WPATH, 2012).

Approaching this from another perspective, consider the following:

·        Is it loving to sow the seeds of gender dysphoria in young children by pushing on them the idea that they might have been born in the wrong body?

·        Is it loving to push on young children, at a time when they are highly vulnerable to suggestion, the idea that if they are anxious about their gender identity, then they should take puberty blockers or undergo life-altering sex-change surgery?

·        Is it loving to push these ideas on children behind the backs of their parents?

·        Is it loving to do these things when the alleged consensus around this "gender affirming care" is quite predictably crumbling before our very eyes?

One can quite reasonably -- and without any "animus" -- answer "no" to all these questions.

False Claim #2: The “Anti-ESG” Movement is Waging a Racist and Bigoted War Against Value-Enhancing DEI

Welsh argues that: “The anti-ESG proposals continued to focus largely on disrupting the current business world consensus that diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) improves companies and benefits investors.” One of the problems here is that this purported consensus is largely based on debunked research. As the National Center for Public Policy Research noted in a recent report: “The primary sources typically cited for the claim that the business case for diversity has been proven are a series of studies by corporate consultant McKinsey & Company, but these studies suffer from two glaring flaws: data mining and causation errors.” Furthermore, “consider that in approving a diversity-related rule for Nasdaq, the SEC was unable to make that [business case for diversity] claim after considering all the relevant studies.”

Yet, none of this stops DEI proponents from calling critics bigots. In fact, I recently engaged a self-described “Workplace Inclusion Expert” on LinkedIn who took merely two replies to assert: “saying you’re anti-DEI is the same as saying you’re anti anyone who’s not a straight, white male.”

This recourse to debunked studies and ad hominem attacks suggests DEI has a totalitarian underbelly that pushes an unfalsifiable, divisive narrative with the zeal of fanatical religious adherents.

False Claim #3: The “Anti-ESG” Movement is Waging an Anti-Science War Against the Climate Science Consensus

On the issue of corporate initiatives purported to address climate change, Welsh wrote:

The key idea expressed in the recent uptick [in anti-ESG proposals] is that efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions are too expensive, likely futile, and based on questionable science. This view flies in the face of widespread scientific and investor consensus that climate change poses the most disruptive set of risks and opportunities we have ever faced.

This is essentially a non-sequitur. Even assuming that “climate change poses the most disruptive set of risks and opportunities we have ever faced,” it does not follow that all corporate efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions are (1) cost-effective, (2) actually address the stated problem, or (3) are based on sound science. Evidence abounds that the rush to “do something” has led corporations to undermine their profitability without any legitimately offsetting climate benefit (see, e.g., here and here).

False Claim #4: The “Anti-ESG” Movement Encourages Hate Speech and Misinformation

It is interesting to note that Welsh views proposals designed to rein in biased and abusive applications of “hate speech” and “misinformation” policies as “anti-ESG.” If being concerned about the weaponization of “hate speech” and “misinformation” policies is anti-ESG, then perhaps concerns about ESG being a Trojan horse for totalitarian control of society by leftists aren’t so far-fetched. Given that simply asking “What is a woman?” has been deemed “hate speech,” it is reasonable to conclude there are risks of weaponizing “hate speech” and “misinformation” policies against conservatives. 

False Claim #5: The “Anti-ESG” Movement Undermines Philanthropy

Welsh lists proposals questioning charitable donations and political contributions as “anti-ESG.” However, if shareholders ask a corporation to review whether it is donating to any organizations that promote sex change surgeries for minors, given the reputational risks involved, one might be forgiven for wondering why that would be deemed "anti-ESG." In the past, we've been told that ESG is simply a non-partisan method for improving information gathering, but to call such proposals "anti-ESG" exposes yet again the thinly veiled radical leftist agenda behind the acronym.

When the inevitable time comes for the new Trump administration to get its hands dirty unwinding the ESG-industrial complex, there will be no shortage of lies spouted in defense of ESG. Let’s keep our eyes on the prize of free markets undistorted by the forced imposition of ESG agendas.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 06:30

Red Sea Oil Flows Surge As Trump's 'Strongman' Image Signals De-escalation In Maritime Chokepoint Crisis

Red Sea Oil Flows Surge As Trump's 'Strongman' Image Signals De-escalation In Maritime Chokepoint Crisis

Yemen's Houthi rebels have sparked turmoil across the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for over a year, targeting Western-linked container ships, tankers, and military vessels. The resulting supply chain snarls have had major implications on global trade, causing a surge in container rate prices and shipping diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. However, early indications suggest that President-elect Trump's strongman image could help de-escalate tensions and alleviate bottlenecks across this critical maritime chokepoint. 

The incoming Trump administration urgently needs a fresh strategy to de-escalate tensions in the critical Bab-el-Mandeb maritime chokepoint that caught the Biden-Harris team entirely off guard. The admin's Yemen policies were marked by inconsistency, leading to dozens of commercial vessels being struck by kamikaze drones and missiles, with several ships sunk as a result of the chaos. 

Trump's second administration needs a strategy to address the deeper foundation for US interests in the Middle East. This likely means pushing forward with his hardline counter-Houthi policies. 

Source: Washington Institute's Noam Raydan

A recent Wall Street Journal report cited officials on Trump's transition team who say they intend to enforce current sanctions and impose new ones on the group, including redesignating the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization and banning countries from buying Iranian oil. 

The mere prospect of Trump returning to the White House next month appears to have already eased tensions in the critical maritime chokepoint.

New data from Goldman Sachs, citing global trade intelligence firm Kpler, shows a significant surge in oil flows via tankers over the past few weeks.

"Despite the market's renewed focus on geopolitical supply risks, actual oil flows through the Red Sea have recovered over the last two weeks amidst continued setbacks to Iran and its proxies," Goldman's Ephraim Sutherland and Daan Struyven wrote in a note. 

The analysts noted, "We see significant downside to oil tanker freight rates and up to $3/bbl of downside to our refined product margin forecasts from a potential full unwind of the oil tanker Red Sea and Russia redirections."

"The Houthis may have wound down their Red Sea disruptions for now, but let's see how long it takes them to come up with more reasons to start back up again - renewed clashes in Gaza, a new "maximum pressure" campaign that targets the Houthis and what's left of Iran's stable of proxies, etc. We don't rule out more targeted attacks against the US and Israeli assets in the region," said Scott Modell, CEO of Rapidan Energy Advisors, about the Kpler data. 

So the question remains: Will de-escalation in the critical maritime chokepoint persist after Jan. 20? 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 04:15

How Germany Destroyed Its Economy And How To Fix It

How Germany Destroyed Its Economy And How To Fix It

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The German economy was once a global industrial powerhouse, showing a strong resilience in times of crisis as well as significant productive growth in periods of expansion.

Germany displayed robust industrial activity, solid productivity, and enviably low unemployment levels, which added to real high wages. However, in the past five years the economy has stagnated, and its GDP is 5% smaller than the pre-pandemic growth trend suggested, according to Bloomberg Economics. Even more worryingly, they estimate that four percentage points of that loss may be permanent.

Most analyses blame the weakness of the German economy on higher energy costs and the Chinese slowdown affecting its exports. However, the reality is more complex.

Germany’s stagnation is self-inflicted.

Germany made its first big mistake in 2012, when its leaders accepted the left-wing diagnosis of the European debt crisis, which blamed all problems on inexistent austerity. Germany embraced inflationism and, in 2014, agreed to the same monetary and interventionist policies that have always destroyed Europe. The German government and the Bundesbank reluctantly agreed to massive ECB monetary expansion and negative nominal rates while allowing the European Commission to abandon its oversight of excessive indebtedness and signing off on back-to-back “stimulus” packages like the Juncker Plan or the Next Generation EU disasters, all of which have left the euro area in stagnation, with more debt and now, inflation. Germans suffer a cumulative inflation of more than 20% in the past five years. Politicians blame it on Ukraine and Putin, but we all know it is a ludicrous excuse. Money supply growth and constant increases in government spending have obliterated the purchasing power of the euro and fueled inflation. “An upsurge in money growth preceded the inflation flare-up, and countries with stronger money growth saw markedly higher inflation” (Borio et al., 2023).

Keynesians believed that a weaker euro would boost Germany’s exports, but this is a myth. Export leaders rise thanks to high added value, not low cost. In any case, all the interventionist policies adopted by the European Union would leave a weak currency and an even weaker economy.

The second lethal mistake was its energy policy. High energy costs are not a fatality. They come from the misguided energy policy that drove German politicians to shut down their nuclear fleet and spend more than 200 billion euros subsidizing volatile and intermittent technologies only to perpetuate the use of coal and lignite, which accounts for 25% of its power production, according to AGEB 2024. In fact, 77% of its energy consumption and 40% of its power production come from fossil fuels. German politicians also embraced the EU agenda that banned the development of domestic natural gas but multiplied the imports of US liquefied natural gas produced from fracking. Fascinating. Furthermore, the enormous subsidies and regulated costs added to consumer bills have made it so that more than 60% of the electricity price paid by consumers comes from regulated costs and taxes, including the CO2 cost, which is a hidden tax. Germans pay more for energy and still depend on fossil fuels because the government destroyed its access to cheap Russian natural gas and replaced it with expensive and unreliable options. Only a group of politicians can decide to enter an energy war and ban the alternatives.

The third fatal mistake was to swallow the increasingly damaging policies coming from the EU Commission and the EU Parliament. A slowdown of the Chinese economy does not take a global export leader to stagnation, especially when the Asian giant is growing at 5% per year. A global export leader like Germany was rightly proud of a productive network that allowed its industry to grow thanks to high added-value products, technology, and a global reach that made German companies sell all over the world and navigate any macroeconomic environment. What made the once-mighty German industry stagnate and decline despite robust global growth was the combination of excessive regulation, disincentives to innovation, elevated taxes, and embracing the disastrous 2030 agenda that bans combustion engine vehicles. Politicians demolished the sales potential of the entire industrial complex with a misguided environmental and regulatory policy. Activists used the seemingly innocent 2030 agenda to impose an interventionist and unproductive model, obliterating all of Germany’s industries and farming and agriculture sectors. The wrongly named Nature Restoration Law, which makes it nearly impossible to conduct primary sector activities, further compounded this damage.

The European Union’s gradual imposition of excessive regulation and disincentives has also resulted in Germany losing a significant portion of its technological leadership. Germany’s engineering and technology dominance was based on an open, highly competitive, and rewarding system that has been destroyed by bureaucracy and regulation. Germany is a global leader in patent applications but lags the United States, and the translation of patents to businesses is exceedingly poor.

German politicians say that all the above challenges will become strengths in the future. I doubt it, because their track record of prediction failures is spectacular. What Germany needs is to abandon inflationism, interventionism, and comic-book activism. If Germany adopts these changes, its economy will experience significant growth.

Germany does not have a competitiveness or human capital problem; it has a political problem. Abandon socialist interventionism, and Germany will be back to its trend of growth and leadership.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 03:30

North Korean Troops In Kursk Suffer First Heavy Losses, Pentagon Says

North Korean Troops In Kursk Suffer First Heavy Losses, Pentagon Says

The Pentagon as well has Ukraine's military intelligence have said that some of the first North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Russia's Kursk border region have been killed. Dozens of the foreign troops are reportedly dead and wounded.

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, the GUR, announced Monday that North Korean army units were beset with "significant losses" of "at least 30 soldiers" killed and wounded in the Kursk region over the weekend, in a significant first if confirmed.

The intense fighting and losses were said to be in the villages of Plekhovo, Vorobzha and Martynovka. "Also in the area of ​​the village of Kurilovka, at least three North Korean servicemen went missing," the GUR wrote on Telegram.

Kiev was the first to make the claim, but there's been no comment from the Kremlin or Pyongyang; however, in a rarity the Pentagon has chimed in to say there are "indications" of casualties among North Korean troops in Russia. According to NY Times:

The Pentagon has seen “indications” that the North Korean forces who have been sent to Russia to help the Kremlin in its war against Ukraine have suffered their first casualties, according to a U.S. official.

Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon spokesman, told reporters on Monday that the North Koreans had entered combat last week in the Russian region of Kursk.

Ryder continued, "We do assess that North Korean soldiers have engaged in combat in Kursk." He added: "We do have indications that they have suffered casualties, both killed and wounded."

In the wake of the reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a statement alleging that Russian troops are engaged in a ghastly and extreme practice to try and conceal the presence of the North Korean troops.

Zelensky on X alleged that Russian soldiers are burning the faces of slain North Koreans:

Russia not only sends the North Korean troops to storm Ukrainian positions, but also tries to conceal losses of these people. They tried to hide the presence of North Korean soldiers. It was prohibited to show their faces during training.

The Russians attempted to erase any video evidence of their presence. And now, after first combats with our warriors, Russians are tryingto literally burn the faces of North Korean soldiers killed in battle.

(Warning: graphic)...

There's been no outside or independent verification of either Zelensky's claims or concerning the authenticity of the video. Pentagon spokesman Ryder has emphasized, "As we’ve said all along, those forces are legitimate military targets for the Ukrainians given that they are engaged in active combat ops." Some analysts have pointed to the North Korean troop presence as evidence of the depletion of Russian forces. President Putin has all the while yet to declare a formal state of war.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 02:45

Turkey Masses Troops On Syria Border For Bigger, 'Imminent' Invasion

Turkey Masses Troops On Syria Border For Bigger, 'Imminent' Invasion

Via The Cradle

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) announced the start of an operation against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northern Syrian town of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) on December 17.

The announcement came in the midst of a build-up of Turkish troops on the Syrian border in preparation for a possible invasion alongside its proxies in the SNA.

Via AFP

Al Mayadeen's correspondent stated that "Turkiye wants a security belt 30 kilometers wide on the border with Syria," stressing that it "is close to achieving its goal."

The Turkish military has built a concrete barrier between Kobani and the Turkey border, while Turkish warplanes can be seen flying above the city.

US media has also reported that Turkey is building up its forces along the border in preparation for a possible invasion. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that according to one US official, "A Turkish cross-border operation could be imminent."

The WSJ adds that SNA fighters and Turkish uniformed commandos and artillery in large numbers are now concentrated near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city in Syria on the northern border with Turkey.

Turkey began building up its forces near the border two weeks ago as militants from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a UN-designated terror group, toppled the government of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and occupied the capital, Damascus.

Kurdish forces under the People's Protection Units (YPG) began taking control of Kurdish-majority areas in Syria in 2012, with the outbreak of war in 2011. Turkey has sought to prevent Kurds from forming contiguous regions in areas of Syria on its southern border, stretching from Afrin in the northwest to Kobani in the north center and to Hasaka in the northeast.

Turkey first supported ISIS and then sent its own forces to invade northern Syria multiple times to prevent such a Kurdish region from being established.

The US military partnered with the YPG to create the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in 2015. The US and SDF occupied land outside of traditional Kurdish control, including Sunni Arab areas containing Syria's oil fields and wheat-producing regions. The US has been trying to keep Syria partitioned, under sanctions, and unable to rebuild since the war ended in 2019.

Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed urged President-elect Donald Trump to prevent a new Turkish invasion. Turkey's goal is to "establish de facto control over [Kurdish] land before [Donald Trump] take[s] office, forcing [the US] to engage with them as rulers of [Kurdish] territory," Ahmed wrote to Trump in a letter viewed by the WSJ. "If Turkey proceeds with its invasion, the consequences will be catastrophic.”

A spokesman for Turkiye's embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to the WSJ's requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 02:00

The Indian Model Of Financial Multipolarity Is The Most Relevant For The Global South

The Indian Model Of Financial Multipolarity Is The Most Relevant For The Global South

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Few can afford to be massively tariffed by the US, let alone sanctioned, and most aren’t willing to burn their bridges with the US for ideological reasons at the expense of their immediate economic interests...

Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar clarified earlier this month that “India has never been for de-dollarization. Right now there is no proposal to have a BRICS currency. BRICS do discuss financial transactions, [but] the United States is our largest trade partner and we have no interest in weakening the dollar at all.” This was in response to Trump threatening to impose 100% tariffs on any country that de-dollarizes.

Here are three background briefings for those who haven’t followed this:

* 6 September 2024: “BRICS Membership Or Lack Thereof Isn’t Actually That Big Of A Deal

* 1 November 2024: “Did The Latest BRICS Summit Achieve Anything Of Tangible Significance At All?

* 2 December 2024: “Trump’s Threats Against BRICS Are Based On False Premises

As the first explained, “BRICS can be compared to a Zoom conference: members actively participate in talks on financial multipolarity, partners observe their discussions in real time, and everyone else with an interest in them hears about the outcome afterwards.” The second one confirmed the veracity of this assessment after the last BRICS Summit had no tangible outcome other than a joint statement. And finally, the last reaffirms the preceding two’s insight, which corrects false perceptions about BRICS.

India is on pace to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030, which requires continued flows of American investment and maintaining access to its enormous market. At the same time, however, it also wants to internationalize the rupee. That last-mentioned policy isn’t de-dollarization per se, but pragmatic and a form of hedging, so Trump shouldn’t be too perturbed. He’s also expected to have the most Indophilic administration in history that’ll be reluctant to sanction India anyhow.

The Indian way represents the model for other Global South countries to follow. Few can afford to be massively tariffed by the US, let alone sanctioned, and most aren’t willing to burn their bridges with the US for ideological reasons at the expense of their immediate economic interests. Furthermore, those that take this chance are making themselves dependent on someone else, namely China. Therefore, this policy comes at the expense of sovereignty, though it’s ironically supposed to strengthen such.

The middle ground between remaining trapped in the dollar system and experiencing its wrath after trying to liberate oneself is to gradually increase the use of one’s national currencies. In parallel with this, having access to alternative non-Western platforms like Chinese ones and whatever BRICS may or may not unveil can help, but they mustn’t become replacements. The goal is to diversify currencies and platforms, not replace one dependency with another, and it’ll take time implement.

Barring a black swan that completely revolutionizes the global financial system, the dollar will likely remain the world’s reserve currency, and Trump will take drastic action against China if it dares to unveil the so-called “petroyuan”. Those suppliers and clients who also decide to use it will face his fury as well. The “petroyuan” might therefore only remain a euphemism for China’s potential use of this currency in some of its bilateral energy deals while probably falling fall short of expectations in the medium-term.

The long term is too far out to forecast, but if the US keeps de-dollarization trends in check under Trump and institutionalizes the means that he’s expected to employ, then that’ll naturally have an adverse effect on internationalizing the yuan. At most, it might begin to be used more in bilateral trade deals too, but the US’ grand strategic goal is for the dollar to remain the currency of choice in energy deals. Internationalizing the ruble like Russia has done with its energy deals isn’t a threat to the dollar at all.

The only reason it even happened was because the US prohibited the use of dollars by others when purchasing Russian energy products, but curtailing and eventually even lifting these sanctions (as well as the associated one banning Russia’s use of SWIFT) could likely reverse this trend to a large degree. After all, it’s much more convenient for everyone to go back to the old order of business, though the US’ weaponization of the financial system since 2022 left an impression that’ll lead to continued hedging.

As “politically incorrect” as it may sound, China already complies with some of these same Western sanctions against Russia despite still officially criticizing them as hegemonic. This is proven by the Chinese-based BRICS New Development Bank and the SCO Bank suspending projects in Russia and not allowing the transfer of Russia’s dues respectively as proven here and here. RT also drew attention to Russia’s payment problems with China in early September, which were analyzed at length here.

It might therefore be unwise for any country to make itself dependent on China by promulgating radical de-dollarization policies since there’s no guarantee that the People’s Republic will have its back. The fact of the matter is that China’s complex interdependencies with the West are too deep, and this places major limits on its financial policymaking capabilities, thus explaining why it hasn’t fully supported Russia. This observation could lead to self-imposed restraints among aspiring de-dollarizing states.

No responsible country like India would feel comfortable fully returning to the former system so the increased use of national currencies and utilization of alternative platforms will persist into the future. So long as these trends remain manageable, and Trump is expected to do his utmost to this end, then no radical changes are expected anytime soon. Everything will continue moving more or less in the same direction, but at a gradual pace, and that’s best for the West and the Global South at this point in time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 23:25

BDNF May Be A Key Compound For Healthy Brain Aging, Neuroplasticity

BDNF May Be A Key Compound For Healthy Brain Aging, Neuroplasticity

Authored by Theresa Sam Houghton via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Cognitive health depends on impulses that constantly pass between the 100 million brain cells (neurons) in your brain. One particular protein, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), is instrumental in maintaining the connections that make the symphony of brain communication possible.

Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

BDNF is just one player among many, but its role is essential for lifelong cognitive health. Optimizing BDNF with diet and lifestyle changes could help support brain volume, function, and adaptation, especially as you age.

Fertilizer for Brain Health

BDNF is a neurotrophin, a type of protein called a growth factor that supports the survival of the neurons in your brain’s communication network. As the most abundant neurotrophin in the brain, BDNF is found in high concentrations in the hippocampus, amygdala, cerebellum, and cerebral cortex. These areas are responsible for memory, emotions, spatial recognition, language processing, and movement.

For your brain to work properly, the functions of each region must remain separate from each other. According to J. Carson Smith, professor of kinesiology at the University of Maryland at College Park, the distinctions between regions start to break down as you age, causing interference that can distract you when you’re trying to pay attention to or remember something.

As we lose function in our brains, all of our brain regions tend to become activated all at once because we’re trying to compensate for this loss of neural function that we have as we get older,” Smith told The Epoch Times in an interview. 

BDNF is key in maintaining this neural function, and its role begins during development as it helps brain cells mature and survive. The protein continues to be active in brain cell growth, maturation, and maintenance throughout life. BDNF is also essential for plasticity, the adaptive process that allows your brain to form fresh connections in response to new information and challenges.

However, Smith said that, rather than helping the brain create new connections, BDNF’s primary function may be related more to maintaining structures called dendrites, projections at the ends of neurons that enable information to pass between cells in your brain’s network.

“BDNF is like a fertilizer,” he said. “So it’s going to help stimulate connectivity and make sure that dendritic branching is intact instead of deteriorating and falling away and losing connections in the brain.”

Effects of BDNF Decline

BDNF levels decrease with age, leaving less “fertilizer” to support brain cells and the connections between them. Research suggests a correlation between lower BDNF levels and age-related changes in the brain, including lower cognitive test scores, a reduction in hippocampal volume, and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). In this condition, difficulties with memory, judgment, and decision-making are more significantly pronounced but don’t reach the level of dementia or Alzheimer’s. Other changes like decreased neurogenesis and the beta-amyloid buildup seen in Alzheimer’s disease may also be related to BDNF decline.

However, the picture is more complex, and there may not be clear associations between BDNF levels and cognitive decline. A 2023 study published in Biomolecules showed that BDNF levels are higher in people with Alzheimer’s than those with MCI but cited other research showing that Alzheimer’s and MCI patients have lower BDNF levels than healthy people.

According to the study’s authors, “It has been suggested that BDNF levels vary with disease severity, with higher levels associated with MCI and early stages of AD and lower levels reported in patients with severe AD symptoms.” While the reasons for this are unknown, researchers hypothesize that the body may produce more BDNF in the early stages of cognitive decline in an attempt to repair brain cells or protect against disease progression.

How BDNF is measured can influence study results. Smith told The Epoch Times that measuring BDNF in human brains can be difficult and invasive, so researchers often rely on levels of circulating BDNF. These levels may not accurately reflect the amount of BDNF in the brain because the protein is also present in other tissues like muscle.

Factors That Affect BDNF

Despite these complexities, patterns across studies point to modifiable factors that may promote or interfere with BDNF. According to Gina Nick, a leading naturopathic physician and formulator of glutathione-based health products, including Best Daily Ever Pixie Sticks, inflammation is one of the most important.

She told The Epoch Times in an interview that exposure to potential toxins in food and the environment can cause inflammation to increase with age. These exposures create unstable molecules called reactive oxygen species (ROS). As a type of free radical, ROS stabilize themselves by taking electrons from molecules in healthy tissues, which sets off chain reactions that produce more free radicals.

The resulting tissue damage, known as oxidative stress, appears to promote inflammation throughout the body, including in the brain. As oxidative stress increases, Nick said, BDNF levels go down. The effects may be more pronounced in the brains of older people due to a decrease in the body’s ability to repair damage to cells and DNA.

The Diet-BDNF Connection

Inflammation may be driven by dietary factors like salt, fat, and additives in ultra-processed foods. Nick said that such foods can deplete glutathione, the body’s most abundant protective antioxidant, and start a cycle that promotes chronic neuroinflammation.

Glutathione, when it’s manufactured in the body, it’s naturally occurring in the body, it eats up a lot of other antioxidants when it’s making it,” she told The Epoch Times. “And when you’re exposed to a bunch of toxins in the environment, that triggers neuroinflammation—it reduces the amount of glutathione in your brain.”

She said it’s important to replace the stores of antioxidants you need to make glutathione so your body can continue to protect brain cells from damage.

Research suggests that other antioxidants may also increase or maintain BDNF levels. In a 2021 study published in Nutritional Neuroscience, researchers found that foods and supplements containing plant-based nutrients called polyphenols were associated with increased BDNF. There may also be a potential connection between higher BDNF levels and anti-inflammatory compounds like flavonoids and the omega-3 fatty acid DHA.

Exercise for Cognitive Health

Staying active may provide additional benefits for BDNF and overall brain health. According to a 2023 review, BDNF appears to be one of the major factors responsible for the cognitive benefits observed in many exercise trials. The researchers concluded that exercise, particularly aerobic activity commonly known as cardio, is associated with better cognition in cases of MCI and dementia.

The review linked several effects of exercise to better cognitive outcomes, including the release of lactate and proteins from muscle and the stimulation of osteocalcin. This protein promotes bone growth and helps muscles adapt to exercise. These molecules promote the production of BDNF and appear to be the factor that connects these processes to improvements in mood, cognition, learning, and memory.

As with diet, the process is complex. Factors like intensity and duration may influence the extent to which exercise affects BDNF and brain health, and long-term exercise may decrease blood levels of BDNF without causing changes in cognitive function or memory.

Support BDNF for Healthy Brain Aging

Following diet and lifestyle patterns consistently shown to promote cognitive well-being may support BDNF production and help keep the symphony of interactions in the brain playing in harmony.

The popular Mediterranean diet, for example, focuses on whole and minimally processed plant foods, lean proteins, and unsaturated fats. This combination increases antioxidant intake while reducing or eliminating pro-inflammatory factors like saturated fats and refined carbohydrates, which may increase the risk of oxidative stress.

Nick recommends incorporating foods that contain glutathione or promote its production, including cruciferous vegetables like broccoli, fruits like peaches, cherries, and strawberries, and unprocessed grass-fed red meat. She’s also a fan of walnuts for their omega-3 content.

A handful of walnuts a day will provide you with sufficient omega 3 fatty acids for helping to maintain BDNF levels,” she told The Epoch Times.

As for exercise, research shows that single sessions and consistent habits may boost BDNF levels. To build a habit for healthy brain function, Smith recommends that people do whatever type of exercise is most accessible and enjoyable for them.

Even simple activities like climbing stairs or gardening can improve BDNF, so be on the lookout for opportunities to skip the elevator or take a quick walk after dinner. If weather or safety is an issue, try free online resources like indoor walking videos or follow-along bodyweight workouts.

Making these changes with help from family and friends may provide additional cognitive support.

As Nick said, “There are always things that you can do to impact BDNF.”

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

That said...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 22:35

How The West Rebranded Al-Qaeda's Jolani

How The West Rebranded Al-Qaeda's Jolani

Authored by Alan Macleod via ConsortiumNews.com,

Corporate media is heralding the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the emergence of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani as the new leader of Syria, despite his deep ties to both Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

“How Syria’s ‘diversity-friendly’ jihadists plan on building a state,” runs the headline from an article in Britain’s Daily Telegraph that suggests that Jolani will construct a new Syria, respectful of minority rights. The same newspaper also labeled him a “moderate Jihadist.” The Washington Post described him as a pragmatic and charismatic leader, while CNN portrayed him as a “blazer-wearing revolutionary.”

Meanwhile, an in-depth portrait from Rolling Stone describes him as a “ruthlessly pragmatic, astute politician who has renounced ‘global jihad’” and intends to “unite Syria.” His “strategic acumen is apparent,” writes Rolling Stone, between paragraphs praising Jolani for leading a successful movement against a dictator.

CNN even scored an exclusive, sit-down interview with Jolani, even as his movement was storming Damascus. When asked by host Jomana Karadsheh about his past actions, he responded by saying, “I believe that everyone in life goes through phases and experiences … As you grow, you learn, and you continue to learn until the very last day of your life,” as if he were discussing embarrassing teenage mistakes, not establishing and leading the Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda’s franchise in Syria.

This is a far cry from the first time CNN covered Jolani. In 2013, the network labeled him one of “the world’s 10 most dangerous terrorists,” known for abducting, torturing and slaughtering racial and religious minorities.

Still on the U.S. terrorist list today, the F.B.I. is offering a $10 million reward for information about his whereabouts. Washington and other Western governments consider Jolani’s new organization, Hay?at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as one and the same as Al-Qaeda/Al-Nusra.

This poses a serious public relations dilemma for Western nations, who supported the HTS-led overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad. And thus, Politico and others report there is a “huge scramble” in Washington to remove HTS and Jolani from the terrorist list as quickly as possible.

The Making of a Radical

Jolani has sought to distance himself from his past and present himself as a moderating force that can attempt to unite an intensely divided Syria. While he has, in recent years, displayed a willingness to compromise with other forces and factions, it is far from clear whether the tens of thousands of soldiers he commands — units made up primarily of former fighters from al-Qaeda/al-Nusra and ISIS — will be in a charitable mood once they cement their power.

“Syria is being purified,” he told a crowd in Damascus on Dec. 8. “This victory is born from the people who have languished in prison, and the fighters broke their chains,” he added.

Jolani — whose real name is Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a — was born in 1982 in Saudi Arabia to parents who fled the Golan Heights area of Syria after the 1967 Israeli invasion. In 2003, he went to Iraq to fight against American forces. After three years of war, he was captured by the U.S. military and spent over five years in prison, including a stint at the notorious Abu Ghraib torture center.

Mugshot of al-Julani in 2006, after his capture by U.S. forces in Iraq. (DoD, Wikimedia Commons, Public domain)

While in Iraq, Jolani fought with ISIS and was even a deputy to its founder. Immediately upon release in 2011, ISIS sent him to Syria with a rumored $1 billion to found the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda and participate in the armed protest movement against Assad that arose out of the Arab Spring.

Realizing the extremely poor reputation al-Qaeda had in the region and across the world, Jolani attempted to rebrand his forces, officially shuttering the al-Nusra Front in January 2017 and, on the same day, founding HTS. He claimed that HTS preaches a very different ideology and that it will respect Syrian diversity. Not everyone is convinced of this, least of all the British government, who immediately proscribed HTS, describing it as merely an alias of Al-Qaeda.

“Al-Qaeda/ISIS man didn’t ‘reinvent himself.’ He had the whole propaganda and intelligence apparatus of the ‘West,’ including the BBC, doing it for him,” remarked co-founder of The Electronic Intifada, Ali Abunimah.

New Government Likes Israel, Hates Hezbollah

The name “al-Jolani” translates to “From the Golan Heights.” And yet, the leader appears distinctly unconcerned with the Israeli invasion of his homeland. The IDF has taken much of southern Syria, including the strategic Mount Hermon, overlooking Damascus. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that this is part of a permanent operation. “The Golan Heights…will forever be an inseparable part of the State of Israel,” he proclaimed.

Jolani has already said that he has no intention of confronting Israel. “Syria is not ready for war and does not intend to go into another war. The source of concern was the Iranian militias, and Hezbollah, and the danger has passed,” he said — a strange thing to say while Israel is carrying out the largest Air Force operation in its history, pounding military targets all over Syria. Other HTS spokespersons have also categorically refused to comment on Israel’s attack on the country, even when pressed by incredulous Western journalists.

Jolani’s comments, singling out two Shia forces rather than Israel as enemies of the state, will have many concerned that this could signal a return to the process of Shia slaughter ISIS waged over much of Syria and Iraq. In 2016, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 383-0 to classify this process as a genocide.

Fortunately, the new government will likely be a coalition of disparate and moderating forces. However, these groups seem to share a common thread: they all appear to be pro-Israel. A commander of the secular Free Syrian Army, for example, recently gave an interview to The Times of Israel, where he looked forward to a new era of “friendship” and “harmony” with its neighbor to the south. “We will go for full peace with Israel… Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, we have never made any critical comments against Israel, unlike Hezbollah, who stated they aim to liberate Jerusalem and the Golan Heights,” he said.

The commander added that “Israel will plant a rose in the Syrian garden” and asked for the country’s financial support in forming a new government.

Israeli soldiers from the Shaldag Unit on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon earlier this month. (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0)

Other anti-Assad forces have gone even further, with one individual stating that Israel

“Isn’t hostile to those who are not hostile toward it. We don’t hate you, we love you very much…we were quite happy when you attacked Hezbollah, really happy, and we’re glad that you won.”

Statements like these might surprise a casual observer. But the reality is that Israel has been funding, training and arming much of the Syrian opposition since its inception. This includes Al-Qaeda, whose wounded fighters are treated by Israel.

And while radical Islamist forces appeared to be enemies with everyone, the one group they fastidiously avoided any confrontation with was Israel. Indeed, in 2016, ISIS fighters accidentally fired upon an Israeli position in the Golan Heights, thinking they were Syrian government forces, then quickly issued an apology for doing so.

From the Golan Heights, the year-long Israeli campaign against Hezbollah and Syrian Army positions also seriously weakened both forces, aiding the opposition in their victory.

Al-Qaeda & US — Complicated Relationship

While both journalists and politicians in the U.S. are scrambling to change their opinions on Jolani and HTS, the reality is that, for much of its existence, Washington has enjoyed a very close relationship with al-Qaeda.

Mujahideen in Kunar, Afghanistan, Jan. 1, 1987. (erwinlux, Flickr, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

The organization was born in Afghanistan in the 1980s, thanks in no small part to the C.I.A. Between 1979 and 1992, the C.I.A. spent billions of dollars funding, arming, and training Afghan Mujahideen militiamen (like Osama bin Laden) in an attempt to bleed the Soviet occupation dry. It was from the ranks of the Mujahideen that bin Laden built his organization.

During the 1990s, bin Laden’s relationship with the U.S. soured, and it eventually became a principal target for al-Qaeda, culminating in the infamous Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C.

The Bush administration would use these attacks as a pretext to invade both Afghanistan and Iraq, claiming that America could never be safe if al-Qaeda were not thoroughly destroyed. Bin Laden became perhaps the most notorious individual in the world, and American society was turned upside down in a self-described effort to rout Islamic extremism.

And yet, by the 2010s, even as the U.S. was ostensibly at war with al-Qaeda in Iraq and Afghanistan, it was secretly working with it in Syria on a plan to overthrow Assad. The C.I.A. spent around $1 billion per year training and arming a wide network of rebel groups to this end. As Jake Sullivan, now the U.S. national security adviser, told Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a leaked 2012 email, “AQ [al-Qaeda] is on our side in Syria.”

Jake Sullivan, second from left, as deputy chief of staff to the secretary of state, with his boss Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama, November 2012. (White House, Pete Souza)

Thus, while many casual observers may be shocked to see the media and political class embrace the leader of al-Qaeda in Syria as a modern, progressive champion, the reality is that the U.S. relationship with the group is merely reverting to a position it has previously held. Consequently, it appears that the War on Terror will come to an end with the “terrorists” being redesignated as “moderate rebels” and “freedom fighters.”

Who Gets to Define ‘Terrorist?’

Of course, many have argued that the U.S. Terrorist List is entirely arbitrary to begin with and is merely a barometer of who is in Washington’s good books at any given time. In 2020, the Trump administration removed Sudan from its state sponsors of terror list in exchange for the country normalizing relations with Israel, proving how transactional the list was.

A few months later, it removed the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (a Uyghur militia currently active in Syria) from its list because of its hardening attitude towards China, seeing ETIM as a useful pawn to play against Beijing.

Washington also continues to keep Cuba on its terror list despite there being no evidence of the island supporting terror groups.

And the U.S. refused to remove Nelson Mandela from its list of the world’s most notorious terrorists until 2008 — 14 years after he became President of South Africa. In comparison, Jolani’s redesignation might take fewer than 14 days.

A giant rebranding operation is taking place. Both corporate media and the U.S. government have attempted to transform the founder and head of an al-Qaeda affiliate organization into a woke, progressive actor. It remains to be seen how exactly Jolani will govern and whether he can maintain support from a wide range of Syrian groups. Given what we have seen so far, however, he can be confident of enjoying strong support from the Western press.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 20:55

The Danger Of White Knight Pardons: Biden Could Fundamentally Change Presidential Power

The Danger Of White Knight Pardons: Biden Could Fundamentally Change Presidential Power

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the New York Post on the news reports that President Joe Biden is seriously considering preemptive pardons for political allies. In granting what I have called “White Knight pardons,” Biden would achieve more of a political than legal purpose. Democrats are worried about the collapsing narrative that President-elect Donald Trump will destroy democracy,  end future elections, and conduct sweeping arrests of everyone from journalists to homosexuals. That narrative, of course, ignores that we have a constitutional system of overlapping protections that has blocked such abuses for over two centuries. Ironically, preemptive pardons would do precisely what Biden suggests that he is deterring: create a dangerous immunity for presidents and their allies in committing criminal abuses.

Here is the column:

There are growing indications that President Joe Biden is about to fundamentally change the use of presidential pardons by granting “prospective” or “preemptive” pardons to political allies.

Despite repeated denials of President-elect Donald Trump that he is seeking retaliation against opponents and his statements that he wants “success [to be] my revenge,” Democratic politicians and pundits have called for up to thousands of such pardons.

While there is little threat of any viable prosecution of figures like the members of the January 6th Committee, the use of “White Knight pardons” offers obvious political benefits. After many liberals predicted the imminent collapse of democracy and that opponents would be rounded up in mass by the Trump Administration, they are now contemplating the nightmare that democracy might survive and that there will be no mass arrests.

The next best thing to a convenient collapse of democracy is a claim that Biden’s series of preemptive pardons averted it. It is enough to preserve the narrative in the face of a stable constitutional system . Indeed, Biden’s pardon list has replaced the usual Inauguration Ball lists as the “must-have” item this year. Pardon envy is sweeping over the Beltway as politicians and pundits push to be included on the list of presumptive Trump enemies.

The political stunt will come at a cost. Preemptive pardons could become the norm as presidents pardon whole categories of allies and even themselves to foreclose federal prosecutions. It can quickly become the norm in what I recently wrote about as our “age of rage.”

It will give presidents cover to wipe away any threat of prosecution for friends, donors, and associates. This can include self-pardons issued as implied condemnations of their political opponents. It could easily become the final act of every president to pardon himself and all of the members of his Administration. We would then have an effective immunity rule for outgoing parties in American politics.

Ironically, there is even less need for such preemptive pardons after the Supreme Court recognized that presidents are immune for many decisions made during their presidencies. Likewise, members have robust constitutional protections for their work under Article I, as do journalists and pundits under the Constitution’s First Amendment.

We have gone over two centuries without such blanket immunity. In my book The Indispensable Right, I discuss our periods of violent political strife and widespread arrests. Thomas Jefferson referred to John Adams’s Federalist government as “the reign of the witches.” Yet, even presidents in those poisonous times did not do what Joe Biden is now contemplating.

Moreover, presidential pardons have a checkered history, including presidents pardoning family members or political donors. Bill Clinton did both. Not surprisingly, Clinton last week attempted to add his own wife’s name to the sought-after Biden pardon list. He added, however, “I don’t think I should be giving public advice on the pardon power…It’s a very personal thing.”

That is precisely the point. The power was not created to be used for “very personal things,” like pardoning your half-brother and a fugitive Democratic donor on your last day in office.

Yet, despite that history, no president has seen fit to go as far as where Biden appears to be heading.

We have a constitutional system that allows for overlapping protections of individuals from abusive prosecutions and convictions. It does not always work as fast as we would want, but it has sustained the oldest and most stable constitutional system in history.

These figures would prefer to fundamentally change the use of the pardon power to maintain an apocalyptic narrative that was clearly rejected by the public in this election. If you cannot prove the existence of the widely touted Trump enemies list, a Biden pardon list is the next best thing.

After years of lying to the American people about the influence-peddling scandal and promising not to consider a pardon for his son, Biden would end his legacy with the ultimate dishonesty: converting pardons into virtual party favors.

In doing so, he has ironically lowered the standard and expectations for his successors. Joe Biden has become the president that Richard Nixon only imagined. He would establish with utter clarity that this power is not presidential, but personal and political . . . and many in the Beltway are waiting to give him a standing ovation.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 20:05

Russia Says Ukraine Allies Are 'Accomplices' In Moscow Assassination Of A Top General

Russia Says Ukraine Allies Are 'Accomplices' In Moscow Assassination Of A Top General

Update(1405): Russia has blasted the West for staying quiet after Ukraine openly boasted of assassinating a top Russian general earlier in the day, identified as Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who was killed when a scooter bomb detonated remotely upon his leaving his apartment in the early morning hours:

Russia on Tuesday criticised Ukraine's allies over what it called insufficient reactions to the assassination in Moscow of the Russian army's chemical weapons chief, an attack claimed by Kyiv.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the West in a Telegram post of "approval for war crimes by fighters of the Kyiv regime" and said "all those who welcome terrorist attacks or deliberately hush them up are accomplices".

This also brings up questions of past reports exposing a CIA program to train and assist Ukraine's special forces and intelligence in sabotage and cross-border targeting...

American media consumers might have a short memory span, but the Russians sure don't. The Kremlin is now calling Ukraine's NATO backers 'accomplices' in a clear escalation of rhetoric.

President Putin had just this week warned that the West is going 'beyond' Russia's red line in its support to Ukraine, and said things are escalating at a dangerous pace. As for this latest 'scooter bomb' assassination, the Kremlin is likely to immediately suspect that CIA and Western intelligence services may have assisted.

The bomb which was detonated remotely had a large blast radius (see video below) and was clearly a very sophisticated device, given the smallness of what was a literal children's scooter apparently used in the plot.

* * *

In another scary escalation which will lead to unpredictable consequences, a top military general and head of the Russian military's chemical weapons forces was killed in Moscow in a targeted blast which Ukraine quickly owned up to. Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov has been confirmed killed in an assassination bombing, and is the most senior Russian official killed since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.

According to emerging details confirmed in state TASS news agency, citing Russia's emergency services, a bomb was hidden in an electric scooter parked outside Gen. Kirillov's apartment. As he and his assistant walked by, the explosive was remotely detonated. The assistant was also immediately killed. Footage showed a large blast outside the residential building.

Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, via TASS.

The 54-year old oversaw Russia's radiation, chemical and biological protection troops - and Kiev and Western sources have accused him of ordering deployment of chemical weapons in the conflict.

An official Kremlin statement reads: "On the morning of December 17, an explosive device planted in a scooter went off near a residential building entrance on Ryazansky Avenue in Moscow, the investigation showed. Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and his aide were killed in the explosion."

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is openly boasting to being behind the killing and Ukrainian sources have acknowledged this to American media.

"Kirillov was a war criminal and an entirely legitimate target, as he issued orders to use prohibited chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops," an SBU source told ABC. "Such an inglorious end awaits all those who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable."

"By order of Kirillov, more than 4,800 cases of the enemy's use of chemical munitions have been recorded since the beginning of the full-scale war," the SBU added, but only cited that grenades equipped with substances like CS and other riot control type irritants have been used.

Video of the bombing has also been released by the SBU. Clearly the hit was carefully planned an choreographed as the attack seems to have been filmed with a ground view from a nearby vehicle.

"The footage shows Gen. Kirillov and his aide exiting a building, with the infamous scooter standing nearby," an unnamed Ukrainian source has described. "The moment they enter the blast zone of the explosive device, the scooter is blown into the air, delivering a 'verdict' to the war criminal."

Moscow is vowing that Ukraine will pay dearly, with Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman and former president Dmitry Medvedev warning in a fresh statement in the aftermath of Kirillov's death, "Attempts to intimidate our nation, stop the Russian offensive or sow fear are doomed. Certain punishment awaits Banderite Nazis, including the top military and political leaders of a crumbling country."

Medvedev characterized the assassination it as done in desperation given that Kiev forces are steadily being beaten back on the Donbas. Indeed such cross-border acts have only gotten more brazen of late.

Medvedev continued: "This terrorist attack demonstrates the agony of the Banderite regime, which is struggling to justify its shaky existence in the eyes of its Western patrons and prolong the deadly hostilities while delivering cowardly attacks on civilians in cities and towns."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 19:55

Watch: Syrian 'Moderate Rebel' Removes ISIS Patch At Prompting Of American Journalist

Watch: Syrian 'Moderate Rebel' Removes ISIS Patch At Prompting Of American Journalist

Video footage has recently emerged taken by journalist James Longman advising 'rebels' in Syria that the ISIS logo on their uniforms will be misunderstood by Western audiences. Longman, who is ABC News' Chief International Correspondent, demonstrates a trend of American journalists going to war zones to essentially coach combatants on how to better present themselves to the outside world. Mainstream media has for many years pushed the myth of "moderate rebels" in Syria seeking to topple Assad, which they finally did this month.

One of the militants, who might be a member of the US-designated terror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or possibly another hardline Islamist faction, attempts to claim to the US journalist that the emblem does not represent ISIS. Still, the man wearing the ISIS patch seems to take the hint and dutifully removes it for the camera. They swear to ABC's Longman that they are not Daesh (or ISIS), even while openly sporting its symbols.

Having examined the disturbing video, Ali Abunimah of Electronic Intifada - who speaks Arabic - has issued the following reaction: "I've seen this video circulating today, along with the claim that James Longman told the fighter to remove the ISIS patch. He does not do that in this video clip. But it's not much of a 'confrontation' either. And however Longman intended it, the fighters appear to interpret his comments as friendly advice on how to present themselves and in fact remove the patch. Understandable that this is reminding people of how Western media colluded in the rebranding of the Azov Battallion in Ukraine that they had been accurately describing as hardcore Nazis just months earlier." Watch:

And below is a version of the video with English translation captions added:

Meanwhile, for a trip down memory lane in another raging conflict zone, a highly revealing and deeply ironic June 2023 NY Times story...

Nazi Symbols on Ukraine's Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 19:40

New Study Illustrates Coffee's Unique Influence On Your Gut

New Study Illustrates Coffee's Unique Influence On Your Gut

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Coffee drinkers consistently harbor up to eight times more of a specific gut bacterium than nondrinkers, according to recent research.

Photo Smoothies/Shutterstock

The international study, which tracked the drinking habits of nearly 77,200 people across 25 countries, found that coffee consumption leaves a distinct microbial signature. Researchers can identify coffee drinkers with 95 percent accuracy by examining their gut bacteria alone.

How Your Brew Affects Gut Microbiome

A 2021 study established that coffee had the strongest correlation with microbiome composition among over 150 studied foods, notably affecting levels of Lawsonibacter asaccharolyticus in approximately 1,000 people.

The latest study by researchers from the CIBIO Department at the University of Trento in Italy and Harvard University, published in Nature Microbiology in November, aimed to deepen understanding of how coffee affects gut health.

To achieve this, researchers analyzed diet and medical data from nearly 23,000 people in the United States and UK, along with publicly available data from almost 54,200 people worldwide. They compared stool samples from coffee drinkers and nondrinkers to identify differences in their gut bacteria composition.

The study found a strong association between coffee consumption and the levels of L. ​asaccharolyticus, with coffee drinkers exhibiting about five to eight times higher levels of this bacterium than nondrinkers.​

This trend was globally consistent, revealing that in coffee-consuming regions such as Luxembourg, Denmark, and Sweden, L. asaccharolyticus is prevalent. Contrastingly, it is nearly absent in countries like China, Argentina, and India.

The findings offer insights into how individual foods interact with our microbiomes and their potential effects on health.

The research team demonstrated that individual microbiome profiles could predict coffee consumption with 95 percent accuracy. A lab experiment confirmed that its growth rate increases when L. asaccharolyticus is grown in an in vitro environment with coffee. Further observations indicated that people who drank a lot of coffee exhibited a greater abundance of this bacterium.

Despite these findings, the role of L. asaccharolyticus in human health remains uncertain. Its presence in the gut microbiome correlates with increased levels of hippurate, a marker of metabolic and gut health produced by gut microbes that metabolize plant compounds called polyphenols found in coffee.

“We do not have conclusive evidence regarding Lawsonibacter asaccharolyticus as a beneficial or detrimental bacterium,” Nicola Segata, professor of genetics and head of the Computational Metagenomics Laboratory at CIBIO, told The Epoch Times. He noted that the research team is conducting specific additional experiments to better address this question.

Future of Microbiome Testing

The research team aims to expand their inquiry into the effects of other foods on gut microbiota, although they recognize the challenges of accurately quantifying food intake.

These findings suggest a potential for using individual foods to increase the abundance or prevalence of specific gut microbes that are supposed to have beneficial effects, according to Segata. “To achieve this, we need to expand this work to many other foods and other microbes, and this is exactly what we are also working on right now,” he said.

The researchers envision a future where microbiome testing can enable personalized dietary recommendations tailored to the presence of specific bacteria associated with certain foods. This approach has the potential to help people optimize their diets for better health by considering the intricate relationships between our food intake and microbiome composition.

“When looking at a food like coffee that is easy to collect information for, and that it is consumed either very frequently or never, then these links are popping out as very strong and very clear,” Segata said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 19:15

World's Smallest Violin Plays As "Depressed" Biden Bureaucrats Can't Find New Jobs

World's Smallest Violin Plays As "Depressed" Biden Bureaucrats Can't Find New Jobs

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

This is a corker.

Politico is reporting that Biden Administration bureaucrats are depressed because they can’t find new jobs, and members of Biden’s “national security team” are “frantically” scrambling to find new careers before Trump dismantles the deep state.

“Our side is just battling depression while we update our resumes,” one White House official stated, while another staffer declared that “Everyone is willing to take a demotion because there aren’t enough jobs.”

Boo hoo. Cry harder.

While the higher ups are all abandoning ship for Defence contractors, think tanks and consulting firms, the lower level dogsbody bureaucrats are whinging that they face taking “unglamorous jobs” with pay cuts.

“There’s a lot of good career people here who went through the first Trump administration and are saying, ‘Can I really go through that again?’” said one Biden appointee at the State Department.

Oh my God, the hardship of having someone you don’t agree with running things.

“It’s going to be very saturated and crowded and so beggars can’t be choosers, I guess,” said another Biden State Department appointee, adding “The crazy thing is none of these jobs we’re desperate to get are particularly glamorous, unless you want to go lobby for some autocratic foreign governments.”

The world’s tiniest violin is playing for them.

Politico notes that “Wherever they land, a wave of Democratic national security and foreign policy staffers will continue the tradition of patiently treading water for four years until, just maybe, a Democrat can win the presidency again in 2028.”

Yeah. Maybe learn to tread water a lot longer.

Or perhaps learn to code.

Welcome to the real world, losers.

Get to the back of the line.

Trump is going to provide a lot of opportunities for you.

Maybe just don’t mention your last job on your resumé.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 18:25

Trump Team Begins Back-Channel Talks With Mexico, El Salvador On Deportation Plans

Trump Team Begins Back-Channel Talks With Mexico, El Salvador On Deportation Plans

President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team has begun reaching out through back channels to the governments of Mexico and El Salvador to prepare for his mass deportation plan, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. The conversations, which involve Trump advisers and informal intermediaries, are part of an effort to lay the groundwork for returning millions of undocumented immigrants as soon as Trump takes office.

While Trump has addressed migration broadly with Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum and El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, his team has held more detailed discussions through intermediaries, including businesspeople, to ensure deportation plans can proceed swiftly, the people said on condition of anonymity.

"We’re already talking," said Tom Homan, Trump’s designated "border czar," during a November visit to Texas alongside Governor Greg Abbott. "We’re already planning. We’re going to put a plan in place and secure this nation at the highest levels ever seen."

The Challenge of Deportations

Trump’s deportation push—aiming to target millions of undocumented immigrants, including over 1 million with final orders of removal—relies heavily on the cooperation of other countries. While Mexico and El Salvador have longstanding repatriation processes, Trump’s advisers acknowledge that reaching agreements with other governments, such as Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and China, will be far more challenging.

“Unless they can strike a deal with the governments of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua on deportations, it seems likely they will look for alternate destinations,” said Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington think tank. “That’s a really hard ask. If the Trump administration arrives just with a stick and no carrot, it’s going to be a tough negotiation.”

Trump addressed this difficulty Monday when asked about countries like Venezuela resisting deportation flights.

They’ll take them back,” Trump said. “They’re all taking them back, yeah. And if they don’t, they’ll be met very harshly economically.”

Trump advisers involved in the outreach include incoming National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy, according to sources. Homan, while focused on domestic enforcement, has supported these efforts to build deportation infrastructure ahead of Trump’s January 20 inauguration.

Negotiations after Trump takes office are expected to be led by Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, and Christopher Landau, Trump’s former ambassador to Mexico who has been tapped as Rubio’s deputy.

The conversations with Mexico have included preparations for deporting Mexican nationals, but the Mexican government has been clear it won’t accept deportees from other countries. “Mexico’s Sheinbaum has said the nation is ready to welcome back its own citizens,” said a senior Mexican official, “but it won’t accept those from other countries.”

El Salvador presents a different dynamic. Trump’s family maintains a close relationship with President Nayib Bukele, whose administration has remained friendly with Trump allies. Donald Trump Jr. attended Bukele’s second inauguration in June, and Trump’s ambassador nominee for Mexico, Ronald Johnson, has kept in close contact with Bukele since serving as U.S. ambassador to El Salvador.

Focus on Immediate Enforcement

Trump’s deportation strategy will begin with targeting individuals already facing deportation orders. “The priority will be those with no legal basis to stay,” said a person familiar with the plans, pointing to undocumented immigrants who have either committed crimes or exhausted their appeals and asylum processes.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has not responded to requests for updated figures, but Migration Policy Institute data shows that Mexico has received more than 1.7 million deportees over the past decade—more than the next nine countries combined.

Homan and Trump’s advisers argue that aggressive early action will set the tone for enforcement. “The American people re-elected President Trump because they trust him to lead our country and restore peace through strength around the world,” Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s transition spokeswoman, said in a statement. “When he returns to the White House, he will take the necessary action to do just that.”

While Trump’s relationships with Mexico and El Salvador remain relatively stable, cooperation from other nations remains uncertain. Trump’s transition team recognizes that countries like Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, which are often the origin points for migrants, have fraught diplomatic relations with the U.S. These nations rarely accept deportation flights, posing a major obstacle to Trump’s mass deportation plan.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 18:00

US Conducts New Strikes In Syria & Yemen, Still With No Congressional Authorization

US Conducts New Strikes In Syria & Yemen, Still With No Congressional Authorization

Congress has not authorized war, and yet the United States on Monday bombed two countries: Yemen and Syria. US Central Command (CENTCOM) earlier confirmed an airstrike on a military facility of the Houthis in northern Yemen.

A Houthi defense ministry building in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa was reportedly among those targets which came under attack by US warplanes. "On Dec. 16 Yemen time, US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a precision airstrike against a key command and control facility operated by Iran-backed Houthis within Houthi-controlled territory in Sana’a, Yemen," CENTCOM said in a fresh statement.

Via Reuters

Separately, CENTCOM said Monday that American forces bombed ISIS camps in Syria, killing at least 12 Islamic State fighters. 

The Pentagon said further that the strikes "were conducted as part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS, preventing the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek opportunities to reconstitute in central Syria."

So now it appears the Pentagon is in a renewed fight against both the 'Iran axis' in Yemen and hardline Sunni terrorists in the heart of Syria. 

Interestingly the Syria strikes were in areas previously understood as the Russian military's area of responsibility, as well as the now defunct Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. 

The US designated terror organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in its prior iteration was as an al-Qaeda offshoot, was once an open ally of ISIS, and is now in control of Damascus and major Syrian cities. 

Turkey and Israel have also been involved in bombing Syria, but Israel has focused its literally hundreds of strikes on degrading and destroying leftover Syrian Army missiles, planes, equipment, and bunkers.

At this moment, the Pentagon also has at least 900 troops occupying the northeast Syrian oil and gas fields, but the Syrian Kurds it supports have increasingly been clashing with Turkish-aligned forces, and directly with the Turkish army, which is still mustering forces along the northern Syrian border. 

AntiWar.com's Dave DeCamp approached Biden administration officials to ask about the pesky question of Congressional authorization to bomb foreign militants in no less than two conflict theatres. 

The response was as follows: "Biden and Harris told me the US wasn't at war but today they bombed Syria and Yemen," DeCamp wrote on X.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 17:40

2025's Best (And Worst) US States For Sound Money

2025's Best (And Worst) US States For Sound Money

Authored by Jp Cortez via The Mises Institute,

The newly-released 2025 Sound Money Index has identified Wyoming, South Dakota, and Alaska as the states with the most favorable policies toward constitutional sound money, while Vermont, Maine, and California take the most hostile stances.

Released annually by the Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals Exchange, the Sound Money Index is a comprehensive scorecard evaluating how each US state promotes or impedes sound money policies. Ranked policies include sales, income, and gross revenue taxes connected with precious metals, state affirmation of gold and silver as money, strengthening protections of gold and silver clause contracts, and state precious metals depositories.

Additional criteria include issuing or investing in gold bonds, inclusion of physical gold or silver in state pension or reserve funds, state mechanisms to accept and remit taxes and other payments in gold and silver, and crippling regulatory burdens imposed on precious metals dealers and investors.

The 2025 Index saw several states improve their rankings dramatically after having enacted pro-sound money tax legislation in 2024. Nebraska’s elimination of capital gains taxes on precious metals propelled it from 22nd to 8th place, while Alabama leapt almost twenty spots from 28th to 9th place. Both of these states had already eliminated their state sales tax on purchases of gold and silver coins, bars, and rounds, so removing income taxes on sales was the next logical step. 

Louisiana jumped from 17th to 12th place after Governor Jeff Landry signed a bill reaffirming gold and silver as legal tender in the state. Wisconsin and New Jersey also saw major improvements from their previous year’s ranking after repealing sales taxes on precious metalsWisconsin climbed from 44th to 26th place, and New Jersey moved from 49th to 39th.

“Money Metals has spent a full decade promoting state-level sound money reforms, and I’m proud to say these bills tend to be among the most popular proposals considered in recent legislative seasons,” said Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals.

“For example, today there are 45 states that have partially or fully exempted sales taxes on precious metals.”

Only five states - Kentucky, Maine, Vermont, New Mexico, and Hawaii - continue to tax precious metals purchases, despite the impact on individuals, businesses, and families seeking a vehicle through which to preserve the purchasing power of their savings. However, not all precious metals sales tax exemptions are created equal.

Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers signed a full exemption on purchases of gold and silver from the state sales tax without any restrictions. The measure did not include an exemption for platinum and palladium. 

The New Jersey bill ultimately signed by the governor does not exempt purchases of “investment coin,” defined as,

…any numismatic coin manufactured of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, or any other metal, including non-precious metals, and having a fair market value of not less than $1,000. ‘Investment coin’ shall not include jewelry or works of art made of coins, nor shall it include commemorative medallions.

Inclusion of these two limited exemptions earned New Jersey only 13 points out of a possible 18 in the sales tax categories of the 2025 Sound Money Index, while Wisconsin’s partial exemption earned the state only 14 points.

Several other states also considered capital gains exemptions on precious metals this year, setting the stage for more sound money reforms in the coming years.

“The Sound Money Index continues to hold states accountable for policies that impact Americans’ ability to protect themselves from inflation and financial instability,” said Jp Cortez, Executive Director of the Sound Money Defense League. Cortez continued, "as the Federal Reserve note’s purchasing power continues to fall, Americans need more options to protect their savings. The Sound Money Index tracks the sound money movement, calling attention to states that still shackle gold and silver with regulation and taxes, and highlights the forward-thinking states that enable the metals to function as savings and money."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 15:05

Trump Might Reverse 'Very Stupid' Long-Range Strikes On Russia

Trump Might Reverse 'Very Stupid' Long-Range Strikes On Russia

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President-elect Donald Trump suggested at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on Monday that he could reverse President Biden’s decision to support long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.

Trump said it was a "big mistake" for the Biden administration to greenlight the escalation without asking him what he thought. When asked if he might reverse the decision, the president-elect said, "I might, yeah. I thought it was a very stupid thing to do."

The comments mark the second time in recent days that Trump expressed his concern over the long-range strikes that Ukraine has launched using US ATACMS missiles and British Storm Shadow missiles.

In an interview with Time Magazine that was published last week, Trump said that he "vehemently" disagreed with Biden’s decision. The Kremlin noted Trump’s comments and said Russia agreed with the president-elect.

"The statement in itself is fully in harmony with our position. That is, our visions of reasons behind the escalation coincide. And, of course, we like that," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Biden signed off on long-range strikes in Russia despite Moscow making it clear the escalation would risk nuclear war. In response to the step, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally changed Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

At his press conference, Trump also said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should be ready to make a deal with Russia to end the war. "He should be prepared to make a deal. That’s all. Too many people being killed," he said.

Trump campaigned on ending the proxy war but hasn’t articulated how he will do that. When asked if he would pressure Ukraine to cede territory, Trump wouldn’t give a direct answer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 14:45

Some Honesty About Inflation

Some Honesty About Inflation

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Inflation numbers came out last week. For once, we got some honesty from the mainstream media.

“Growing inflation poses challenges for the Fed,” said the WSJ.

“Progress on inflation stalled, complicating Republicans’ plans,” said the NYT.

That’s a major change in the tune from “it’s just transitory.”

That was Janet Yellen, four years ago!

It was a grim number, an annualized increase of 2.7 percent, which is still far over the target rate.

Those of us who watch real-time numbers knew it was coming. We’ve seen a heating up for three months. Right now, those numbers are showing a 3 percent rate of annualized inflation.

It’s been a four-year trend now toward ever higher prices, resulting in a dramatic loss of purchasing power in terms of goods and services. In this time, the dollar has lost a minimum of 25 cents of value or as much as double and triple that depending on the purchase. The result has been a loss of real income, hitting the working class and poor the hardest.

At last we are getting some honesty, probably now that it is a problem that Trump will inherit. Plenty of people out there are happy about this and have hopes that the problem with vex him as it did Biden.

We did not hear this on the campaign trail but there is not much a president can do about inflation in the short term. The usual lag between cause and effect on inflation is 12 to 18 months.

Unplugging the money-printing machine is a fix down the line. But in the short term, it has a potentially deleterious effect on macroeconomic stability that can result in obvious recession. And right now, we see all the signs of a reacceleration taking place.

The money stock as measured by M2 bottomed out in October 2023 but has since increased by $1.9 trillion. That’s a dramatic turn that only adds fuel to the inflationary fire. It’s not just the deliberate policy to loosen up via interest rate cuts but also a change in velocity combined with more bank lending. None of it looks good for stabilizing the dollar in terms of domestic purchases.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

The sticky price index has never shown much in the way of victory over the worst inflation in nearly half a century. Certainly there has never been a reason to relax, much less change posture from a restrictive policy to a more liberal one. It currently stands at 3.9 percent, which is nearly double the target rate. That’s an incredibly bad rate of inflation to start a new presidential term.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

That the central bank is primarily responsible for inflation is not unknown. The trouble with putting an end to it—which would actually be very easy—is mainly a political one. Every president wants lower interest rates in order to drive national output. They don’t like a central bank policy that is restrained with higher rates. So they typically push for lower rates.

Lower rates create conditions for more credit expansion and that adds to the money stock and fuels inflationary pressure for which the president is held responsible. However, he is also held responsible for recessions. That creates a terrible dilemma for an incoming administration that had made two grand promises: to boost economic growth and end inflation.

Absent huge structural changes in regulation and spending, it is not likely both can happen at once.

When this dilemma confronted Ronald Reagan upon taking office in 1981, the answer was to endure a recession for 18-24 months to create the conditions for future economic growth. But it was a true war against the clock, with a huge scramble to boost growth while stopping inflation. They didn’t quite make it in time and lost substantially in the midterm elections of 1982. The recovery finally arrived in time for Reagan to win a second term.

In those days, officials were much more honest with the public. It was frankly admitted that a recession was a necessary condition for renewed growth. But it has been 40 years since anyone in a position of official influence has said anything remotely like that.

We have an added problem now that full recovery from the economic calamity of 2020 has never really happened. Job openings soared after reopening but those days are over, and we’ve been on a two-year slide. Moreover, the Philadelphia Fed is dropping some truth about jobs numbers from earlier this year. To summarize: they were fake.

Looking back at output numbers with a realistic estimate of inflation reduces GDP growth in real terms to recessionary levels, though it has not been widely admitted.

Where does that put the incoming Trump administration in relation to Fed policy? It’s a genuine dilemma. Despite all the pretenses from the top that the Fed is using informed science and access to granulated data to guide its decision-making, the reality is that Fed chairman Jerome Powell has no idea what to do now. He can continue the rate-cutting and reignite inflation or freeze rates now and risk the ire of the incoming administration.

Regional presidents of Federal Reserve banks around the country are divided on what should happen. It’s a balancing act because the labor market is weak and getting worse even as inflation is worsening too. Typically, the old models on which they used to rely posited that labor markets operate in an inverse relationship with price pressure. That pattern is not part of the present reality.

One possibility is that dramatic spending cuts of the federal budget could dampen inflationary pressure. That is because a reduced rate of debt creation takes pressure off the Federal Reserve to enter the bond market to support dollar-denominated debt. Part of the job of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is not an official agency, is to create public support for dramatic spending cuts.

Maybe that works but will it be enough? Cutting $2 trillion out of the federal budget might sound easy but nothing like this has happened in a century of government policy. Is the public sufficiently alarmed about a fiscal crisis that it can endure extreme cuts in public services?

There is no way that cuts on that level will not be felt. The Washington bureaucracies backed by the press will scream about impending disaster, starving widows and orphans, slowed down passports, cuts in staff at monuments and federal parks, and all the other usual tropes. DOGE will need to be prepared to call out all the propaganda as nothing but flimflam designed to preserve the status quo.

What we really need is a return to honesty in economics, along with an admission that we cannot defeat the inflation we despise without a period of pain. I’m aware that no one likes to speak this way and that the political culture is hyper-intolerant toward long-term solutions. The expectations for the incoming Trump administration is that it will deploy some magic cure to lower real incomes, deep indebtedness, and a failing job market. Nothing like that exists.

Economics is about wealth creation but it is also about accounting. Optimism and political exuberance are wonderful but they cannot substitute for hard choices. And that includes some measure of pain before we can get on track toward renewed economic growth. That is a lesson that the incoming Trump administration can learn from Reagan’s experience in 1981.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 14:25

"Final Big Market Cap Event Of Year": All Eyes On Novo's CagriSema GLP-1 Results

"Final Big Market Cap Event Of Year": All Eyes On Novo's CagriSema GLP-1 Results

The next big market cap event for Novo Nordisk is the top-line efficacy results for its experimental obesity drug, CagriSema, with data from a late-stage trial expected by the end of the year. 

Novo previously stated that CagriSema could potentially lead to 25% weight loss, compared with Wegovy's 15% weight loss.

In early November, Martin Holst Lange, Novo Nordisk's head of development, told Reuters that data from its Phase 3 trial of CagriSema is expected to reflect higher weight loss: "There has been no change in our confidence level." 

Goldman's Jack McFerran told clients Tuesday about the incoming data from Novo and told them to expect big moves in stock price.

McFerran cited Goldman's James Quigley, who is the "most bullish on the street, 27-28% weight loss." 

More from McFerran:

James Quigley is the most bullish on the street, 27-28% weight loss. The key chart to understand his view is ex9: it shows the Phase 1, the red solid line with red dots, the important analysis is that this study was not optimised for (1) male / female (2) BMIs and (3) life style modifications. The impact was more men, lower BMI starting points. He expects P3 to have higher BMi starting, more women, more follow ups. This is important when contextualised with Ex9.

The bottom dotted line.. extrapolates Ph1 using the solid orange line ie for the rest of the trial same as placebo.. conservative and the line above is how do we get from Ph1 to mgts 25% guide.. i.e. this would have to be one of the worst Ph3s. Street are at 25% (with mgt) we are 27-28%. 

The debate beyond the what digit this week debate, is will the consumer care about 25%, 26%, 28%, i.e. is this differentiated enough vs what is already in the mkt, to be super product. 

McFerran cited weight-loss outlooks and expected stock moves from Goldman's Seth James:

  • Weight Loss: 23% and below – disaster, stock down 10-15%.

  • Weight Loss: 24%down 5-10% but will get bought.

  • Weight Loss: 25% - relief – stock up 5-10%

  • Weight Loss: 26% - Up 10%

  • Weight Loss: 27% - Up 15%

  • Weight Loss: 28% - Up 20%

More from McFerran: 

The press release will likely be this week and only disclose the headline weight loss numbers for CagriSema and maybe Cagrilinitide monotherapy and make qualitative comments on the tolerability profile. Weight loss and tolerability for CagriSema arm is the only thing we will care about, on weight loss.

From Redditors...

Goldman recommends Novo as a "Buy" based on the expectation of "positive Phase 3 data for CagriSema as an important mechanism to attenuate the impact of the semaglutide EU/US patent expiries in 2031/32."

The analysts have a $148 12 month price target, which is about a 36% premium to the upside as of early Tuesday cash. 

Meanwhile, Jefferies analysts recently noted that consensus sales surrounding CagriSema are "overly optimistic" and don't factor in any potential revenue slide for Ozempic and Wegovy.

All eye on CagriSema's results ahead of the holidays. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/17/2024 - 13:40

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