Zero Hedge

She Thought That Her Computer Science Degree Would Get Her A Six Figure Job – Instead It Got Her An Interview With Chipotle

She Thought That Her Computer Science Degree Would Get Her A Six Figure Job – Instead It Got Her An Interview With Chipotle

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

If you recently graduated from college, good luck trying to find a decent job. What we are experiencing right now reminds me so much of the early 1990s. If you were a new college graduate in those days, it was extremely difficult to even get an interview for a good job. Sadly, we are now entering a very similar environment. There is enormous competition for any good job that is available, and mass layoffs are occurring all over the nation. In fact, through the first 7 months of this year the number of job cut announcements in the U.S. was 75 percent higher than it was during the first 7 months of 2024.

I am not here to give people the Pollyanna version of what is going on. I am here to give people the truth.

21-year-old Manasi Mishra believed that if she worked really hard and got a computer science degree she would be able to get a six figure job at a big tech company.

Instead, the only thing her computer science degree has gotten her is an interview with Chipotle…

Aspiring computer scientists are sinking in a job market overtaken by AI, as a recent graduate who expected to make six figures could only land an interview at Chipotle.

Manasi Mishra, 21, was under the impression that if she worked hard in school and mastered coding, she’d have a prestigious tech job with a cushy salary lined up straight from college.

‘The rhetoric was, if you just learned to code, work hard and get a computer science degree, you can get six figures for your starting salary,’ the San Roman, California native told The New York Times.

In case you are wondering, she did not actually get the job with Chipotle…

To her dismay, she did not secure the job.

‘Of course, the year I graduate is the year the tech industry goes downhill,’ she elaborated in the ‘get ready with me’ video.

If even the tech industry is going “downhill”, what does that say about the state of the overall economy?

At one time, it was fairly easy to get hired by Microsoft if you had certain skills.

But this year Microsoft has conducted multiple rounds of layoffs.  At this stage, the total number of workers that have been laid off has surpassed the 15,000 mark…

Microsoft has laid off over 15,000 people so far in 2025. The stress of the belt-tightening has gotten to CEO Satya Nadella.

“Before anything else, I want to speak to what’s been weighing heavily on me, and what I know many of you are thinking about: the recent job eliminations,” Nadella wrote in a memo to employees Thursday.

It would be difficult to overstate just how dramatically the environment has shifted.

Young people that are searching for jobs are running into closed door after closed door, and as a result many of them are experiencing financial difficulties.

According to Fox Business, “nearly 10% of credit card balances held by Americans aged 18-29 became 90 or more days overdue in the second quarter”…

Young Americans continued to make up the largest share of those transitioning into credit card delinquency in the second quarter, according to a report released by the New York Federal Reserve.

Despite ticking down slightly from the previous quarter, the report showed that nearly 10% of credit card balances held by Americans aged 18-29 became 90 or more days overdue in the second quarter.

New York Fed researchers said credit card delinquency rates for Americans under 40 have been “unusually elevated,” adding they are keeping a “close eye” on the trend.

Credit card companies are going to become much more stingy in extending credit to young adults.

As you can imagine, that will not be good for our economy at all.

But this is the environment that we live in now.

One recent survey discovered that 62 percent of Gen Z adults “have no emergency savings at all”…

Your car breaks down on a Tuesday morning, and the repair bill comes to $500. If you’re part of Generation Z, there’s a good chance you have nothing set aside to cover it. A new survey from Credit One Bank reveals that 62% of Gen Z have no emergency savings at all, nearly double the rate of baby boomers. There’s a very clear widening gap in financial preparedness happening between generations.

Let that sink in.

Nearly two-thirds of an entire generation of Americans is living on the edge.

There will be some that will argue that they should just toughen up and take whatever they can get.

In the old days, if times were tough you could at least get a job as a delivery driver.

But now UPS is trying to rapidly shed existing workers by offering them buyouts…

The undertaking, called the Driver Voluntary Separation Program, is the first in UPS’ history for delivery drivers. The financial incentive available through the program is in addition to earned retirement benefits like pension and healthcare, per UPS.

Word of the program spread on July 3, when the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union said UPS’ buyout plan was in motion. The Teamsters represent more than 300,000 UPS employees under a five-year contract reached in 2023.

Drivers that have literally been with UPS for decades are being encouraged to leave so that the company can cut labor costs…

About 85% of UPS drivers are at the top end of the pay scale. Those who have 25 to 40 years of service would be the most likely candidates to accept the buyout package, Nando Cesarone, president of the U.S. region and UPS Airlines, told analysts on the call.

UPS is offering $1,800 per year of service, with a minimum payout of $10,000. A driver with 27 years of experience would receive a $48,600 buyout, according to the offer sheet.

I wouldn’t want to be a new college graduate today.

If you get stuck in a bad job that is not in your field, it can permanently wreck your career.

I have seen it happen way too many times.

But getting hired for a good job has become an extremely challenging task.

In fact, one recent survey found that more than 60 percent of all Americans believe that it has “become more difficult to find a good paying job”…

According to the poll, more than six out of 10 Americans said it had become more difficult to find a good paying job, buy a home and afford childcare.

More than four out of five Americans, 83%, said they were concerned about the cost of groceries, with 46% saying they were very concerned. Some 47% said they were worried about being able to pay their rent or mortgage, 64% said they were worried about affording an unexpected medical expense.

It is time to face the truth.

We really are in the midst of a substantial economic downturn that has been going on for quite some time.

Needless to say, I believe that the difficult times that we are experiencing now are not even worth comparing to what is eventually coming.

So we are all going to have to adjust our plans and our expectations.

The system that we have all depended upon for so long is failing, and we all need to start becoming a lot more self-sufficient.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 14:25

'Hawkish' FOMC Minutes Shows 'Majority' Fear Higher Inflation More Than Lower Employment

'Hawkish' FOMC Minutes Shows 'Majority' Fear Higher Inflation More Than Lower Employment

Since the last 'dovish' FOMC statement (and Powell's post-statement 'hawkish' presser) on July 30th, we have had 'cool' payrolls print and 'hot' inflation prints with retail sales mixed... and now everyone is anticipating Friday's speech by Powell at Jackson Hole. So, maybe these Minutes will be a nothingburger...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, rate-cut expectations are higher...

Source: Bloomberg

...with September price-in as almost a done-deal for a cut...

Source: Bloomberg

Markets have generally gone nowhere in that time (except for crude prices, which have plunged on the heels of potential peace breaking out). Under the hood, there is some considerable pain in stock land (as momo and retail favorites have all suffered in recent days)

Source: Bloomberg

So, with two dissents (preferring to cut than hold), we anxiously await The Fed Minutes to see what Powell and his pals want us to know about the division within The (expensive) Eccles Building...

Key highlights from the Minutes:

The Minutes suggest members believe rates are not restrictive... 

Several Officials Said Current Rate May Not Be Far Above Neutral - Minutes

"Several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level; among the considerations cited in support of this assessment was the likelihood that broader financial conditions were either neutral or supportive of stronger economic activity."

But clearly they are front and center terrified about inflation:

Many Noted Full Effect Of Tariffs Could Take Some Time

"Participants judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year’s increase in tariffs. In terms of timing, many participants noted that it could take some time for the full effects of higher tariffs to be felt in consumer goods and services prices. Participants cited several contributors to this likely lag. These included the stockpiling of inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs; slow pass-through of input cost increases into final goods and services prices; gradual updating of contract prices; maintenance of firm–customer relationships; issues related to tariff collection; and still-ongoing trade negotiations."

Majority Saw Employment Risk Outweighed By Inflation Risk (remember this was prior to the payrolls revisions)

"Participants generally pointed to risks to both sides of the Committee’s dual mandate, emphasizing upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment. A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk."

Despite zero evidence of this (and in fact the opposite - remember the Japanese automakers)...

Several Expected Firms Would Pass Tariffs To Customers

"Several participants, drawing on information provided by business contacts or business surveys, expected that many companies would increasingly have to pass through tariff costs to end-customers over time. However, a few participants reported that business contacts and survey respondents described a mix of strategies as being undertaken to avoid fully passing on tariff costs to customers. Such strategies included negotiating with or switching suppliers, changing production processes, lowering profit margins, exerting more wage discipline, or exploiting cost-saving efficiency measures such as automation and new technologies."

"few participants observed that evidence so far suggested that foreign exporters were paying at most a modest part of the increased tariffs, implying that domestic businesses and consumers were predominantly bearing the tariff costs

Few participants stressed inability to pass through price increases

A few participants stressed that current demand conditions were limiting firms’ ability to pass tariff costs into prices. Regarding inflation persistence, a few participants emphasized that they expected higher tariffs to lead only to a one-time increase in the price level that would be realized over a reasonably contained period. A few participants remarked that tariff-related factors, including supply chain disruptions, could lead to stubbornly elevated inflation and that it may be difficult to disentangle tariff-related price increases from changes in underlying trend inflation

The future is scary...

Several Flagged Risk Of Inflation Expectations Unanchoring

"Participants noted that longer-term inflation expectations continued to be well anchored and that it was important that they remain so. Several participants emphasized that inflation had exceeded 2 percent for an extended period and that this experience increased the risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the event of drawn-out effects of higher tariffs on inflation.

Does this look like its 'unanchored'?

But wait, there's more fearmongering... Several Noted Concerns About Elevated Asset Valuations (We are surprised only 'several' saw that?

"The staff provided an updated assessment of the stability of the U.S. financial system and, on balance, continued to characterize the system’s financial vulnerabilities as notable. The staff judged that asset valuation pressures were elevated. In equity markets, price-to-earnings ratios stood at the upper end of their historical distribution, while spreads on high-yield corporate bonds narrowed notably and were low relative to their historical distribution. Housing valuations edged down but remained elevated"

Some Stressed Interplay between Tariffs and monetary policy

"Some participants stressed that the issue of the persistence of tariff effects on inflation would depend importantly on the stance of monetary policy."

Some Expected Economic Activity To remains Solid

"Some participants noted that economic activity would nevertheless be supported by financial conditions, including elevated household net worth, and a couple of participants highlighted stable or low credit card delinquencies"

But, Several Saw Slowdown in the second half

"Participants observed that growth of economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, driven in large part by slower consumption growth and a decline in residential investment. Several participants stated that they expected growth in economic activity to remain low in the second half of this year."

Many talked about stablecoins

"Many participants discussed recent and prospective developments related to payment stablecoins and possible implications for the financial system. These participants noted that use of payment stablecoins might grow following the recent passage of the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act). They remarked that payment stablecoins could help improve the efficiency of the payment system. They also observed that such stablecoins could increase the demand for the assets needed to back them, including Treasury securities. In addition, participants who commented raised concerns that stablecoins could have broader implications for the banking and financial systems as well as monetary policy implementation, and thus warranted close attention, including monitoring of the various assets used to back stablecoins."

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 14:00

Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris

Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris

Via The Cradle

Syria has issued confirmation of a meeting between its foreign minister and a close confidante of Benjamin Netanyahu in Paris, marking the first official announcement of direct talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Earlier, reports had said Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani would meet with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Paris.

"Shaibani met today in the French capital, Paris, with an Israeli delegation to discuss several issues related to ‘enhancing stability’ in the region and southern Syria. Discussions focused on de-escalation and non-interference in Syria's internal affairs, reaching understandings that support stability in the region, monitoring the ceasefire in As-Suwayda Governorate, and reactivating the 1974 agreement," state news agency SANA reported on Tuesday. 

Image source: SANA

"These discussions are being held with US mediation as part of diplomatic efforts aimed at enhancing security and stability in Syria and preserving its unity and territorial integrity," it added. 

This was not the first meeting between Dermer and Shaibani. US envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, said on July 24 that he met in Paris with Syrian and Israeli officials for “dialogue and de-escalation.” Shaibani and Dermer were both visiting the French capital at the time. 

Barrack’s announcement came after the end of violent clashes between pro-government forces and local Syrian Druze factions in the southern city of Suwayda and its countryside, resulting in numerous civilian massacres.

Israel intervened with a series of violent airstrikes targeting Damascus and other areas in southern Syria, under the pretext of “protecting” the Druze minority. According to reports, Syrian-Israeli negotiations, which had been ongoing since the start of the year, resumed quickly after the attacks, following a brief pause.

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government last year, Israeli forces have established a widespread military occupation across southern Syria.

Occupation forces continue to expand their presence in the country’s south, launching regular raids, incursions, and airstrikes. Israel says it wishes to demilitarize the entire south, protect the Druze minority from persecution, and prevent ‘hostile forces’ from establishing a presence.

Damascus has repeatedly signaled that it does not intend to pose a threat to Israel. Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has also reportedly held meetings with Israeli officials. 

A source told Syrian media last month that Sharaa held a meeting with Israel’s National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi in Abu Dhabi on July 7.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 12:25

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Aug. 19 that President Donald Trump has requested that the entire wall along the U.S.-Mexico border be painted black in order to deter illegal crossings.

Speaking to reporters in New Mexico, Noem said the border wall is being built tall and extended deep underground to prevent any breaches, and the metal would be painted black to make it even more difficult to climb.

“That is specifically at the request of the president, who understands that in the hot temperatures down here, when something is painted black, it gets even warmer, and it will make it even harder for people to climb,” she said.

“So we are going to be painting the entire southern border wall black to make sure that we encourage individuals to not come into our country illegally, to not break our federal laws.”

Noem noted that cameras and sensors would be installed in the future to enhance security at the border, adding that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also plans to build “water-borne infrastructure.”

“Construction right now is at the pace of a little bit less than a half a mile a day, and the border wall will look very different based on the topography and the geography of where it is built,” she added.

Noem did not provide details on the wall’s construction cost. The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law by Trump last month, allocated about $46.5 billion for the construction of a wall along the border with Mexico.

Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border after taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, directing the deployment of armed forces to assist with border security efforts.

Under the declaration, Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were ordered to take “all appropriate action” to construct more physical barriers along the border. Following that order, Noem issued a waiver in April that enabled the immediate construction of 2.5 miles of border in California. 

Trump has signed several executive actions aimed at deterring illegal immigration, including a memo authorizing the military to take control of land along the U.S.–Mexico border.

Data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last month shows that illegal border crossings fell to their lowest level in June, with no parole releases of illegal immigrants.

There were 25,228 total encounters nationwide in June, down from 29,478 the previous month, marking the lowest monthly total ever recorded by CBP, the agency stated.

Border Patrol apprehensions nationwide also dropped to a historic low, with 8,024 apprehensions recorded, compared with 10,357 in May, according to the agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:45

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Aug. 19 that President Donald Trump has requested that the entire wall along the U.S.-Mexico border be painted black in order to deter illegal crossings.

Speaking to reporters in New Mexico, Noem said the border wall is being built tall and extended deep underground to prevent any breaches, and the metal would be painted black to make it even more difficult to climb.

“That is specifically at the request of the president, who understands that in the hot temperatures down here, when something is painted black, it gets even warmer, and it will make it even harder for people to climb,” she said.

“So we are going to be painting the entire southern border wall black to make sure that we encourage individuals to not come into our country illegally, to not break our federal laws.”

Noem noted that cameras and sensors would be installed in the future to enhance security at the border, adding that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also plans to build “water-borne infrastructure.”

“Construction right now is at the pace of a little bit less than a half a mile a day, and the border wall will look very different based on the topography and the geography of where it is built,” she added.

Noem did not provide details on the wall’s construction cost. The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law by Trump last month, allocated about $46.5 billion for the construction of a wall along the border with Mexico.

Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border after taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, directing the deployment of armed forces to assist with border security efforts.

Under the declaration, Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were ordered to take “all appropriate action” to construct more physical barriers along the border. Following that order, Noem issued a waiver in April that enabled the immediate construction of 2.5 miles of border in California. 

Trump has signed several executive actions aimed at deterring illegal immigration, including a memo authorizing the military to take control of land along the U.S.–Mexico border.

Data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last month shows that illegal border crossings fell to their lowest level in June, with no parole releases of illegal immigrants.

There were 25,228 total encounters nationwide in June, down from 29,478 the previous month, marking the lowest monthly total ever recorded by CBP, the agency stated.

Border Patrol apprehensions nationwide also dropped to a historic low, with 8,024 apprehensions recorded, compared with 10,357 in May, according to the agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:45

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

David Zervos, the Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, has garnered significant attention as a potential candidate for the role of Federal Reserve Chair, amid increasing activity on prediction markets. 

This morning he placed his flag firmly in the ground as a front-runner and most assuredly got President Trump's attention when he said during a CNBC interview that it's inaccurate to describe the US central bank as independent, and moreover, 'Wall Street Jesus' (as he has been called given his hirsute characteristics) described the outgoing Fed chief as aligned with the political left.

“The Fed has never been independent, and the political pressures on the Fed have always been growing and continue to grow,” Zervos said on CNBC.

He then went further:

“I think he’s actually quite a bit dependent,” Zervos said of Powell.

“He’s operating politically from the left. Or, let’s put it this way, from the anti-Trump side.”

He highlighted pressure from Democratic lawmakers in recent years on monetary policymakers to lower interest rates.

History features episodes of Treasury secretaries and administrations “behind the scenes” trying to influence Fed chairs, Zervos also said.

Watch the full exchange here (with Andrew Ross Sorkin unable to contain his own 'independence')...

The Jefferies strategist is no stranger to the limelight as some may remember he refused to cut his hair until Fed Chair Powell cut interest rates...

...which he did in 2019...

After which appears to have discovered Ozempic (picture here with Kellyanne Conway who he reportedly dated for a time)...

Zervos' odds are on the rise across prediction markets with PolyMarket seeing a big spike yesterday and now Zervos is up to the 3rd place...

Zervos also repeated his argument that the steady contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet in recent years has left monetary policy more restrictive than many perceive - adding to the case for lowering rates.

“You’re left now with rates at a much more restrictive rate, without that extra kicker from the balance sheet,” Zervos said.

“So we really need to get rates back toward a more neutral level.”

Music to President Trump's ears...

Professional subscribers can read David's full recent notes here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:10

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

David Zervos, the Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, has garnered significant attention as a potential candidate for the role of Federal Reserve Chair, amid increasing activity on prediction markets. 

This morning he placed his flag firmly in the ground as a front-runner and most assuredly got President Trump's attention when he said during a CNBC interview that it's inaccurate to describe the US central bank as independent, and moreover, 'Wall Street Jesus' (as he has been called given his hirsute characteristics) described the outgoing Fed chief as aligned with the political left.

“The Fed has never been independent, and the political pressures on the Fed have always been growing and continue to grow,” Zervos said on CNBC.

He then went further:

“I think he’s actually quite a bit dependent,” Zervos said of Powell.

“He’s operating politically from the left. Or, let’s put it this way, from the anti-Trump side.”

He highlighted pressure from Democratic lawmakers in recent years on monetary policymakers to lower interest rates.

History features episodes of Treasury secretaries and administrations “behind the scenes” trying to influence Fed chairs, Zervos also said.

Watch the full exchange here (with Andrew Ross Sorkin unable to contain his own 'independence')...

The Jefferies strategist is no stranger to the limelight as some may remember he refused to cut his hair until Fed Chair Powell cut interest rates...

...which he did in 2019...

After which appears to have discovered Ozempic (picture here with Kellyanne Conway who he reportedly dated for a time)...

Zervos' odds are on the rise across prediction markets with PolyMarket seeing a big spike yesterday and now Zervos is up to the 3rd place...

Zervos also repeated his argument that the steady contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet in recent years has left monetary policy more restrictive than many perceive - adding to the case for lowering rates.

“You’re left now with rates at a much more restrictive rate, without that extra kicker from the balance sheet,” Zervos said.

“So we really need to get rates back toward a more neutral level.”

Music to President Trump's ears...

Professional subscribers can read David's full recent notes here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:10

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Oil prices are higher this morning, bucking a broadly risk-off sentiment across markets, following API's report overnight showing US crude stockpiles declined last week, while traders assessed negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Focus is gradually shifting back towards fundamentals,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

Declining US inventories in EIA data later “could lend support, as many fear a significant inventory build in the coming quarters.”

The drop shows summer demand remains solid even as supply is on the rise.

Investors are watching on progress toward a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine following a series of high-level talks brokered by President Donald Trump.

"The latest series of meetings aimed at brokering peace in Ukraine was also weighed by financial markets, but had a more pronounced impact on oil. Intense talks about ending hostilities, however elusive, raised the spectre of Russia re-entering the international market. That was until overnight, as Russia, based on comments from its foreign minister, appears less than enthusiastic about a meeting with the Ukrainian leader, a prerequisite for any potential peace," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Any eventual peace deal could lead to fewer restrictions on Russia’s crude exports, although Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions.

API

  • Crude -2.4mm (-1.2mm exp)

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline +1mm

  • Distillates +500k

DOE

  • Crude -6.01mm (biggest draw since June)

  • Cushing +419k

  • Gasoline -2.72mm

  • Distillates +2.34mm

Official data confirmed API's reported drawdown in crude stocks (but far larger at over 6mm barrels - the biggest draw since the start of June). Stocks at the Cushing Hub rose for the 7th straight week while Gasoline inventories fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite another 223k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude commercial stocks fell significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production edged higher as the rig count stabilized its declining trend...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains after the big crude draw...

Source: Bloomberg

The longer-term outlook for the oil market looks bearish, with expectations for a glut later in 2025 as OPEC+ returns barrels and as Trump’s trade policies spark concerns about demand. Futures are down more than 10% this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:38

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Oil prices are higher this morning, bucking a broadly risk-off sentiment across markets, following API's report overnight showing US crude stockpiles declined last week, while traders assessed negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Focus is gradually shifting back towards fundamentals,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

Declining US inventories in EIA data later “could lend support, as many fear a significant inventory build in the coming quarters.”

The drop shows summer demand remains solid even as supply is on the rise.

Investors are watching on progress toward a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine following a series of high-level talks brokered by President Donald Trump.

"The latest series of meetings aimed at brokering peace in Ukraine was also weighed by financial markets, but had a more pronounced impact on oil. Intense talks about ending hostilities, however elusive, raised the spectre of Russia re-entering the international market. That was until overnight, as Russia, based on comments from its foreign minister, appears less than enthusiastic about a meeting with the Ukrainian leader, a prerequisite for any potential peace," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Any eventual peace deal could lead to fewer restrictions on Russia’s crude exports, although Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions.

API

  • Crude -2.4mm (-1.2mm exp)

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline +1mm

  • Distillates +500k

DOE

  • Crude -6.01mm (biggest draw since June)

  • Cushing +419k

  • Gasoline -2.72mm

  • Distillates +2.34mm

Official data confirmed API's reported drawdown in crude stocks (but far larger at over 6mm barrels - the biggest draw since the start of June). Stocks at the Cushing Hub rose for the 7th straight week while Gasoline inventories fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite another 223k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude commercial stocks fell significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production edged higher as the rig count stabilized its declining trend...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains after the big crude draw...

Source: Bloomberg

The longer-term outlook for the oil market looks bearish, with expectations for a glut later in 2025 as OPEC+ returns barrels and as Trump’s trade policies spark concerns about demand. Futures are down more than 10% this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:38

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

In stark contrast to reality, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) - which is heavily funded by pharmaceutical companies, recommended on Tuesday that young children, including infants, receive the COVID-19 vaccine despite the fact that children are minimally impacted by the virus, the fact that the vaccine doesn't prevent one from contracting it, and that it largely only helps the elderly and medically fragile from severe cases.

A 1-year-old child receives a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination in Seattle, Wash., on June 21, 2022. David Ryder/Getty Images

According to the organization, all children ages 6-23 months should receive the COVID-19 vaccine - regardless of whether they have natural immunity from prior infection, unless they have a contraindication such as a history of severe allergic reaction to a vaccine ingredient. 

While the recommendation is universal, the group said in a statement that their recommendation stems from infants and other children who are "at high risk for severe COVID-19."

As the Epoch Times notes further, the organization pointed, in part, to a paper it published that found that among children hospitalized for COVID-19 from fall 2022 to spring 2024, the majority of those younger than 2 had no underlying conditions.

Of note, the paper cited surveyed 2,490 children who were hospitalized with COVID-19, effectively a rounding error. 

A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency, told The Epoch Times in an email that the AAP, which receives funding from vaccine manufacturers, should strengthen its conflict-of-interest safeguards.

“By bypassing the CDC’s advisory process and freelancing its own recommendations, while smearing those who demand accountability, the AAP is putting commercial interests ahead of public health and politics above America’s children,” Andrew Nixon, the spokesman, said.

The CDC used to recommend that all children, except for those younger than 6 months, receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

In May, under orders from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the CDC stopped recommending the vaccine for healthy children and pregnant women.

The CDC’s schedule currently states that children with moderately or severely compromised immune systems should receive a vaccine, even if they’ve been vaccinated before.

Children who do not have weakened immune systems “may receive COVID-19 vaccination, informed by the clinical judgment of a healthcare provider and personal preference and circumstances,” the schedule states.

“There’s no evidence healthy kids need it today, and most countries have stopped recommending it for children,” Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary said when the schedule was changed.

Many countries, including the UK and Australia, no longer recommend COVID-19 vaccines for most or all children.

The AAP, which previously recommended COVID-19 vaccination for all children 6 months and older, now advises the vaccine for people ages 2 to 18 who meet one of four criteria: they are at high risk of severe illness, live in crowded settings such as long-term care facilities, have never been vaccinated against COVID-19, or live with someone at high risk.

Children who do not fall into any of those categories are not advised to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. At the same time, if a parent or guardian wishes, the child “should be offered” a single dose, according to the recommendations.

“The AAP will continue to provide recommendations for immunizations that are rooted in science and are in the best interest of the health of infants, children and adolescents,” Dr. Susan Kressly, AAP’s president, said in a statement.

AAP has about 67,000 members, including pediatricians, in the United States and other countries. Its funders include Pfizer and Moderna, which manufacture two of the three COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States.

Insurance Coverage

After the government narrowed its recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines, the AAP and some other organizations said they were worried that insurers would stop covering vaccines for children and pregnant women.

Many insurers, as well as Medicaid and Medicare, are required to cover vaccines in the CDC’s schedule.

“As we navigate an evolving health care landscape, maintaining robust immunization coverage continues to be a top priority for protecting both individual and community health,” AHIP, a trade group for insurers, said in a joint statement after the COVID-19 vaccine recommendations were changed.

“We are committed to ongoing coverage of vaccines to ensure access and affordability for this respiratory virus season. We encourage all Americans to talk to their health care provider about vaccines.”

Kressly said on Tuesday that the AAP is urging insurers to cover the vaccines in the organization’s schedule.

“AAP is committed to working with our partners at the local, state and federal levels to make sure every child, in every community has access to vaccines,” she said.

Some states have maintained universal COVID-19 vaccine recommendations.

Other critics of the CDC’s updated schedule also plan on releasing their own recommendations.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, for instance, said it will release recommendations on maternal immunizations at the end of the summer in collaboration with the Vaccine Integrity Project, an effort established this year by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and led by Dr. Michael Osterholm, a former adviser to President Joe Biden.

The project has a presentation scheduled for Aug. 19 titled “From Data to Decisions: The Evidence Base for 2025 Fall/Winter Immunizations.”

Influenza Recommendations

The AAP’s recommendations largely align with the CDC’s recommendations when it comes to influenza vaccination.

Both advise one or two doses annually starting at 6 months of age, with a transition to one dose annually starting around age 11.

The CDC, though, only recommends influenza vaccines that are free of thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative.

The CDC’s vaccine advisory committee told the agency over the summer it should issue a recommendation against thimerosal-containing flu vaccines. Kennedy accepted the recommendation in July.

Advisers and Kennedy said they wanted to act to prevent mercury accumulation in children. Studies have found links between thimerosal and health problems, such as a paper that found an association between thimerosal exposure and tics.

The AAP was among the groups that opposed the move, stating that there were no health concerns with the amount of mercury present in the vaccines.

The organization said in a policy statement that it recommends “any licensed influenza vaccine product appropriate for age and health status and does not prefer one product over another.” It said that “influenza vaccination should not be delayed to obtain a specific product, including a thimerosal-free product.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:20

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

In stark contrast to reality, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) - which is heavily funded by pharmaceutical companies, recommended on Tuesday that young children, including infants, receive the COVID-19 vaccine despite the fact that children are minimally impacted by the virus, the fact that the vaccine doesn't prevent one from contracting it, and that it largely only helps the elderly and medically fragile from severe cases.

A 1-year-old child receives a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination in Seattle, Wash., on June 21, 2022. David Ryder/Getty Images

According to the organization, all children ages 6-23 months should receive the COVID-19 vaccine - regardless of whether they have natural immunity from prior infection, unless they have a contraindication such as a history of severe allergic reaction to a vaccine ingredient. 

While the recommendation is universal, the group said in a statement that their recommendation stems from infants and other children who are "at high risk for severe COVID-19."

As the Epoch Times notes further, the organization pointed, in part, to a paper it published that found that among children hospitalized for COVID-19 from fall 2022 to spring 2024, the majority of those younger than 2 had no underlying conditions.

Of note, the paper cited surveyed 2,490 children who were hospitalized with COVID-19, effectively a rounding error. 

A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency, told The Epoch Times in an email that the AAP, which receives funding from vaccine manufacturers, should strengthen its conflict-of-interest safeguards.

“By bypassing the CDC’s advisory process and freelancing its own recommendations, while smearing those who demand accountability, the AAP is putting commercial interests ahead of public health and politics above America’s children,” Andrew Nixon, the spokesman, said.

The CDC used to recommend that all children, except for those younger than 6 months, receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

In May, under orders from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the CDC stopped recommending the vaccine for healthy children and pregnant women.

The CDC’s schedule currently states that children with moderately or severely compromised immune systems should receive a vaccine, even if they’ve been vaccinated before.

Children who do not have weakened immune systems “may receive COVID-19 vaccination, informed by the clinical judgment of a healthcare provider and personal preference and circumstances,” the schedule states.

“There’s no evidence healthy kids need it today, and most countries have stopped recommending it for children,” Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary said when the schedule was changed.

Many countries, including the UK and Australia, no longer recommend COVID-19 vaccines for most or all children.

The AAP, which previously recommended COVID-19 vaccination for all children 6 months and older, now advises the vaccine for people ages 2 to 18 who meet one of four criteria: they are at high risk of severe illness, live in crowded settings such as long-term care facilities, have never been vaccinated against COVID-19, or live with someone at high risk.

Children who do not fall into any of those categories are not advised to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. At the same time, if a parent or guardian wishes, the child “should be offered” a single dose, according to the recommendations.

“The AAP will continue to provide recommendations for immunizations that are rooted in science and are in the best interest of the health of infants, children and adolescents,” Dr. Susan Kressly, AAP’s president, said in a statement.

AAP has about 67,000 members, including pediatricians, in the United States and other countries. Its funders include Pfizer and Moderna, which manufacture two of the three COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States.

Insurance Coverage

After the government narrowed its recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines, the AAP and some other organizations said they were worried that insurers would stop covering vaccines for children and pregnant women.

Many insurers, as well as Medicaid and Medicare, are required to cover vaccines in the CDC’s schedule.

“As we navigate an evolving health care landscape, maintaining robust immunization coverage continues to be a top priority for protecting both individual and community health,” AHIP, a trade group for insurers, said in a joint statement after the COVID-19 vaccine recommendations were changed.

“We are committed to ongoing coverage of vaccines to ensure access and affordability for this respiratory virus season. We encourage all Americans to talk to their health care provider about vaccines.”

Kressly said on Tuesday that the AAP is urging insurers to cover the vaccines in the organization’s schedule.

“AAP is committed to working with our partners at the local, state and federal levels to make sure every child, in every community has access to vaccines,” she said.

Some states have maintained universal COVID-19 vaccine recommendations.

Other critics of the CDC’s updated schedule also plan on releasing their own recommendations.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, for instance, said it will release recommendations on maternal immunizations at the end of the summer in collaboration with the Vaccine Integrity Project, an effort established this year by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and led by Dr. Michael Osterholm, a former adviser to President Joe Biden.

The project has a presentation scheduled for Aug. 19 titled “From Data to Decisions: The Evidence Base for 2025 Fall/Winter Immunizations.”

Influenza Recommendations

The AAP’s recommendations largely align with the CDC’s recommendations when it comes to influenza vaccination.

Both advise one or two doses annually starting at 6 months of age, with a transition to one dose annually starting around age 11.

The CDC, though, only recommends influenza vaccines that are free of thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative.

The CDC’s vaccine advisory committee told the agency over the summer it should issue a recommendation against thimerosal-containing flu vaccines. Kennedy accepted the recommendation in July.

Advisers and Kennedy said they wanted to act to prevent mercury accumulation in children. Studies have found links between thimerosal and health problems, such as a paper that found an association between thimerosal exposure and tics.

The AAP was among the groups that opposed the move, stating that there were no health concerns with the amount of mercury present in the vaccines.

The organization said in a policy statement that it recommends “any licensed influenza vaccine product appropriate for age and health status and does not prefer one product over another.” It said that “influenza vaccination should not be delayed to obtain a specific product, including a thimerosal-free product.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:20

Too Late? Nervous Banking Lobby Fights To Change GENIUS Act

Too Late? Nervous Banking Lobby Fights To Change GENIUS Act

Authored by Aaron Wood via CoinTelegraph.com,

The US banking lobby isn’t keen on interest-bearing stablecoins or their supposed challenge to financial systems — but it may be too late to amend these “loopholes” in the GENIUS Act.

The Banking Policy Institute (BPI), an advocacy group for the banking industry led by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, wrote a letter to Congress last week, arguing that stablecoins present a risk to existing credit systems. 

The BPI urged regulators to close supposed loopholes in the GENIUS Act, a new law regulating the stablecoin industry in the US, lest a shift from bank deposits increase lending costs and reduce loans to businesses. 

The bank lobby holds considerable sway in Washington, and while it may be able to complicate lawmaking, some argue that it’s delaying the inevitable: a future denominated in stablecoins. 

Source: Bank Policy Institute

Banks say stablecoin interest is a threat

Prominent members in the crypto industry have long argued that stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer users interest. In March, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said interest-bearing stablecoins would give users more control over financial products. 

But according to Andrew Rossow, policy and public affairs attorney, the novelty of onchain interest means problems like solvency, liquidity and investor protection aren’t straightforward.

“Claims of ‘easy compliance’ overlook the complex realities of ensuring proper reserve backing, Anti-Money Laundering/Know Your Customer and prudential oversight simultaneously,” he told Cointelegraph.

The BPI’s letter addressed these concerns directly. It particularly called into question a so-called “loophole” in Sec. 4(a)(11) of GENIUS, which prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying “any form of interest or yield (whether in cash, tokens, or other consideration) solely in connection with the holding, use, or retention of such payment stablecoin.”

This section seems to ban yielding stablecoins, but according to Aaron Brogan, founder of crypto-focused law firm Brogan Law, “many believe that it does not ban deals between exchanges and issuers.”

The ability for other firms, like exchanges, to allow interest on stablecoins is based on factors other than “holding use or retention” as mentioned in GENIUS. The word “solely” in the GENIUS Act is a “powerful legal limiter, and it really does mean that if there is any other basis for the deals, they probably don’t qualify,” he told Cointelegraph.

So, while GENIUS is “written to appear quite complete, the prohibition on interest is probably actually relatively porous.”

Stablecoins, which can often offer much higher interest than traditional bank offerings, “do not substitute for bank deposits, money market funds or investment products, and payment stablecoin issuers are not regulated, supervised or examined in the same way,” said the BPI.

It said that this poses a threat to existing credit models. As things stand, customer deposits allow banks to create a significant portion of the money supply through loans and lines of credit.

“Incentivizing a shift from bank deposits and money market funds to stablecoins would end up increasing lending costs and reducing loans to businesses and consumer households,” the BPI stated.

The banking industry’s concerns may have some grounding, said Rossow. “The bank lobby’s strongest argument is that allowing stablecoin issuers to pay interest risks would create unregulated ‘shadow banks,’ threatening financial stability and consumer safety. Without robust capital, reserve requirements and oversight, stablecoin issuers could trigger liquidity crises and expose users to even more risk,” he said.

However, the banks’ position begins to fall apart when it calls issuer-paid interest on stablecoins “inherently dangerous,” said Rossow. Given that some proposals from the crypto industry show it’s possible to allow issuer interest with proper regulation, “a total ban may seem more about protecting traditional banks than balanced progress.”

Will the GENIUS Act be amended?

Pursuing self-interest at the expense of the greater good is essentially taken for granted in Washington. In this regard, powerful and conflicting influences in the policymaking process can “dilute legislation and regulation, leading to a policy gridlock yielding compromises that would most likely please neither side entirely, only to create further market uncertainty,” said Rossow.

He said that, prior to the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage lenders blocked more strict regulations on predatory lending, directly contributing to the financial risk-taking that led to the financial system’s collapse. 

“These lobbying battles only serve to widen the regulatory gaps and weaknesses that undermine our financial stability and consumer protections, further erode public confidence and, now more relevant than ever, our government’s ability to regulate impartially — especially when lobbying appears to grant preferential treatment to vested interests, hidden or not,” Rossow said.

But the banking industry’s ability to actually challenge stablecoins is limited, and it may just be attempting to challenge the inevitable, according to Brogan. It’s unlikely that the crypto industry will accept amendments to GENIUS, a law on which it’s already made concessions. 

Jake Chervinsky, chief legal officer of Variant, noted that the law already took bank lobby considerations into account. Source: Jake Chervinsky

“The bank lobby is tilting at windmills here. Sometimes you do see new language snuck into other legislation like pork, but I doubt something so significant could pass under the radar. I don’t expect more stablecoin legislation in this Congress,” he said. 

Rather, Brogan said that the banks were pushing back against the inevitable, drawing on the historical example of music executives decrying the rise of digital music and file sharing. 

“People never wanted to use banks to make payments, they just had to. Now, they don’t. Just like digital music files were better than CDs, disintermediated finance is better and easier than traditional banking,” he said in a recent blog post. 

The banking industry has considerable sway in Washington, but its concerns about stablecoins may be a day late and a dollar short. The crypto industry now has the ability to advocate for its own interests successfully and influentially, and it has done so in the form of GENIUS.

What remains to be seen is how this new financial order shakes out for everyday investors. Per the BPI, a shift toward stablecoins means “higher interest rates, fewer loans, and increased costs for Main Street businesses and households.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 09:40

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