US Imposes Sweeping New Sanctions On Iranian Shipping Network

Via The Cradle

The US Treasury Department has announced new sanctions targeting the global shipping interests reportedly controlled by Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, son of senior Iranian official Ali Shamkhani, in what it described as the most significant Iran-related action since 2018.

The sanctions aim to dismantle what Treasury officials called a "vast network" used to sell Iranian and Russian oil through container ships and tankers operated by front companies and intermediaries.

via Reuters

The network, they said, generated tens of billions of dollars used to support the Iranian government.

"These profits have helped prop up the Iranian regime," the Treasury stated, accusing Shamkhani of leveraging corruption and personal connections in Tehran to evade existing restrictions.

In total, the action designates 15 shipping firms, 52 vessels, 12 individuals, and 53 entities involved in sanctions evasion, with operations spanning 17 countries, including Panama, Italy, Hong Kong, the UAE, and the UK.

A US official said the measure was "tailored" to avoid disrupting global oil markets while striking specific targets.

"From our perspective, given where this individual fits, given his connection to the supreme leader and his father's previous sanctions activities, given the Iran-related authorities, it's critically important to emphasize that this is an Iran action that is meaningful and very impactful," the official said.

The EU sanctioned Shamkhani earlier in July for his role in the Russian oil trade, and his father, Ali Shamkhani, was sanctioned by the US in 2020.

Tehran condemned the decision as a hostile move, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei calling it a "blatant assault on the Iranian people and their national dignity," adding that it reflected "the hostility of American policymakers towards the Iranian people."

He accused Washington of seeking to "cripple Iran’s development, sow internal discord, and erode the rights and livelihoods of ordinary citizens."

"The Iranian people, fully aware of the malicious intent of the aggressive sanctioning party …, will stand firm with all their might to safeguard their dignity and interests," Baghaei said.

He criticized the US's "addiction" to unilateralism and said its measures repeatedly violated “international law, human rights, and freedom of sovereign trade.”

He called for international accountability and reaffirmed Iran’s "unshakeable resolve" to defend its sovereignty and continue its development goals.

Sanctioned entities include Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company, linked to Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff. Among the targeted vessels are Bendigo, Carnatic, Luna Prime, Goodwin, Davina, and Spirit of Casper.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 05:00

Spain Beats Germany, Tops EU, In Asylum Requests Amid Shift In Migrant Patterns

Germany is no longer the EU’s top destination for asylum seekers, as applications from Syrians plummet following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December, according to an unpublished EU Agency for Asylum (EUAA) report seen by the Financial Times.

The report says the bloc’s asylum system is undergoing a “significant shift,” with May 2025 seeing 64,000 applications — nearly 25% fewer than the same month in 2024, according to the Financial Times. The drop was driven by an “extremely abrupt” fall in Syrian claims, from about 16,000 in October 2024 to just 3,100 in May.

“Since February Germany has no longer been the top EU+ destination; Spain, Italy and France all received more applications in May 2025,” the EUAA writes.

The Financial Times writes that Germany, long a top choice for Syrians, saw overall claims in May fall to 9,900 from 18,700 a year earlier. Spain now leads with 12,800 applications, mainly from Venezuelans fleeing the “severe economic and political crisis” in their country — a trend the agency partly links to U.S. deportations.

Italy is second with 12,300 claims, driven by Bangladeshis and Peruvians. France follows with 11,900, led by applicants from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, and Haiti.

The EUAA stressed the fall in Syrian claims is “likely not due to any asylum policy changes” but “rather, the shift likely reflects changing circumstances in Syria.”

Despite the decline, Germany still hosts the largest asylum seeker population, having granted asylum to 150,000 people in 2024, compared to about 50,900 in Spain, 40,000 in Italy, and 65,200 in France.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 04:15

Germany's Fiscal Free Fall: Record Debt, Recession, And Welfare Crisis

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe 

Germany’s 2026 federal budget is set. The cabinet has reached an agreement on the framework, with only parliamentary approval pending—a mere formality. With a record deficit and no credible path to fiscal consolidation, Germany is lurching toward a debt crisis.

On Wednesday, the federal cabinet greenlit the 2026 budget. Core expenditures are projected at €520.5 billion, €174.3 billion of which must be financed through new debt. This includes €89.9 billion in traditional borrowing and an additional €84.4 billion categorized as “special funds” directed toward infrastructure and climate initiatives.

Only with creative accounting has Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) managed to present his deficit-ridden budget as Maastricht-compliant. Total new borrowing amounts to 3.3% of GDP—well above the 3% EU ceiling.

The reclassification of large parts of government spending marks a new chapter in fiscal recklessness. Any meaningful consolidation or structural reform is being kicked down the road.

Between 2025 and 2029, over €850 billion in new debt is planned.

Debt as Coalition Glue

The common denominator uniting the coalition of conservatives and social democrats is one thing: a massive debt package expected to pour over the country in coming years. The projected borrowing would push Germany’s debt-to-GDP ratio from 63% to over 90%, rapidly aligning the country with the debt profiles of Southern Europe.

But the crisis is not a distant threat—it’s already here. Near-daily headlines report fresh deficits from the country’s social insurance funds, and promised relief for citizens—like the cut in electricity taxes—has already been abandoned. Budgeting in Berlin has shifted into permanent crisis mode.

Social Security in Free Fall

While politicians in Berlin bicker over cost-cutting, serious consolidation measures vanish in the trenches between coalition factions. Meanwhile, the foundations of the welfare state are crumbling.

According to the statutory health insurance forecasting board (GKV), the system expects a record €47 billion deficit this year. That number is likely to rise further in tandem with the country’s deepening recession.

Hopes for a job market rebound have all but evaporated, with Germany entering its third year of contraction.

Long-term care insurers are also ringing alarm bells. Their current shortfall is €1.55 billion, and the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds warns it could double by 2026.

The national pension system fares no better. After a €2 billion deficit last year, the government forecasts a €7 billion shortfall for this year.

The exploding social deficits reflect not only failed immigration and demographic policies but also the fallout of a recession-prone economic model. The burden is falling squarely on the workforce—threatening a deepening loss of faith in the welfare system. For many, it’s becoming a bottomless pit, a hamster wheel from which there is no escape.

Workers Shouldering the Burden

The pain threshold for contributors has already been reached. The average social contribution rate now stands at 42.5% of taxable income. Health insurance alone—bloated with bureaucracy, expanded services, and rising staff costs—consumes 17.5%, including a 2.9% surcharge. Another hike is looming in 2025, driven in part by the multi-billion euro hospital transformation fund.

The long-term outlook is grim. Projections by the IGES Institute show pension contributions could rise above 21% by 2035, alongside 3.4% for unemployment insurance and 4.7% for long-term care. The German welfare machine is speeding full throttle toward a debt wall, dragging the federal budget down with it.

A Fiscal Capitulation

The 2026 budget marks a fiscal surrender by the Merz government. It offers no solution to the social insurance crisis.

Germany, once hailed for its sound budgeting and feared as the austerity enforcer during Europe’s last debt meltdown, is losing control over the financing of its bloated welfare state. With social deficits multiplying rapidly, the federal budget becomes a meaningless formality—soon to be patched up with endless supplementary budgets.

The only certainty is that Germany has entered an era of accelerated indebtedness. Political consensus is now bought with the sweet poison of cheap credit. The country edges closer to the political gridlock and debt spirals witnessed in France—where structural reform becomes all but impossible.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 03:30

These Are The Biggest Wartime Buyers Of Russian Fossil Fuels

China followed by India have been the two biggest wartime buyers of Russian fossil fuels, here defined as any oil, coal or gas purchased after Jan. 1, 2023.

Turkey was the third-biggest buyer while the European Union came fourth.

The economic bloc has attempted to wean itself off its dependency on Russian fossil fuels but has struggled to do so after 2022, especially when it comes to natural gas.

Timelines published by CREA show that EU reductions in purchases were very significant during the first year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but have struggled to make meaningful progress since.

At the same time, China, India and Turkey upped their buying in 2022 as Russian oil could be had at reduced rates.

Especially fossil fuel flows to India rose by a lot during that year, while Turkish purchases also soared recently. The biggest EU buyers were Hungary, Slovakia, France and Belgium.

As Voronoi reports, many rounds of sanctions were not enough to diminish Russian fossil fuel revenues due to a mix of global dependency on the major energy exporter and opportunism by non-alligned nations.

After different types of sanctions have been tried out by Western alliances to curb Russia's export income (often unsuccessfully), U.S. Senator Lindsay Graham on Sunday said that steep tariffs could be another option to pressure countries to abstain from buying Russian oil.

On Sunday, the lawmaker from the state of South Carolina said on Fox News directed towards India, China and Brazil: "We're going to crush your economy."

U.S. President Donald Trump had already mentioned this scenario last week on the ocassion of a visit by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, saying that "secondary tariffs" of 100 percent would come into effect for countries trading with Russia if no peace deal was reached within 50 days with Ukraine. 

A similar threat was leveled towards buyers of Venezuelan oil in March, but tariffs threatened only stood at 25 percent then.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 02:45

Calls Grow For Nationwide Islamic Education In German Schools

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Germany’s Association for Education and Training (VBE) has called for the introduction of comprehensive Islamic religious education in schools across the country, arguing that Muslim students should be offered the same opportunities as their Christian peers.

“We are committed to ensuring that all believers can talk about their faith within schools and receive relevant information about their religion and other religions,” said VBE Federal Chairman Gerhard Brand in comments to the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND).

He urged political leaders to ensure that schools are equipped with the necessary personnel and materials, and that programs are implemented quickly and expanded over time.

Islamic religious education is currently regulated at the state level, resulting in significant variation. In North Rhine-Westphalia, Islamic religious education is already offered in schools, while in Bavaria, a state-run Islamic studies course is available as an alternative to ethics. However, the Bavarian model does not include cooperation with Islamic religious communities.

According to estimates, around 5.5 million Muslims live in Germany, and at least 580,000 were attending school as of 2020.

Yet only around 81,000 students are currently enrolled in Islamic religious education programs.

Advocates say that expanding access to these classes is essential for integration and for protecting students from extremist influences.

The Turkish Community in Germany also welcomed the initiative but warned of political and structural hurdles.

“Islamic religious education is a must — just like Catholic and Protestant religious education,” said the group’s chairman, Gökay Sofuoglu. He called for educational standards to be aligned at a national level, while acknowledging the constitutional limits imposed by Germany’s federal system.

“We would need a nationwide Islamic cooperation partner. Unfortunately, that isn’t in sight at the moment,” he said.

Sofuoglu stressed that while the state must remain secular, it has a duty to ensure fair and equal treatment of religious communities. “I don’t know how this could be regulated nationwide,” he added.

Stefan Düll, president of the German Teachers’ Association, told the RND that “religious education in public schools, taught by teachers trained and state-certified in Germany, can provide a counterbalance to fundamentalist attitudes — mediated by the family or by fundamentalist preachers online.”

The debate over Islamic education is not just reserved for Germany. As the Muslim population across Europe grows, both support for and opposition to Islamic teachings have risen in multiple European nations.

In April of this year, Remix News reported how, for the first time, Muslim students had become the largest religious group in Vienna’s schools, underlining the incredible demographic transformation taking place in the Austrian city.

According to data obtained from the office of Bettina Emmerling, the city councilor responsible for education, Muslims now account for 41.2 percent of all students, while Christian students fell to 34.5 percent. The trend is only growing, and is accompanied by rising problems, including violence in schools, anti-Semitism, and contempt for women.

“Islam is changing our society in ways we do not want,” warned Christian Klar, a Viennese school principal, last October. He expressed concern over the “rapid Islamization” of Austrian schools, alongside rising violence and anti-Semitic incidents.

In January, it was reported that approximately 200 schools across the Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia now teach Islam as part of their curriculum, following the disclosure of official figures after a parliamentary request by the local Vox party.

The inquiry submitted by Vox Andalusia sparked political debate over the extent to which the curriculum is being catered to immigrants and the scope of influence a rising Islamic community now has on institutions across the region.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/01/2025 - 02:00

T-Day Arrives: Trump Raises Tariff On Dozens Of Countries, With Minimum Rate Of 10%

Almost 4 months after Liberation Day sparked a global market crash, moments ago T-Day finally arrived... and barely anyone noticed.

President Trump at the White House.

Late on Thursday, just ahead of the August 1 deadline for tariff renegotiation, President Trump announced a slew of new tariffs, including a 10% global minimum and 15% or higher duties for countries with trade surpluses with the US, forging ahead with his unprecedented effort to reshape international commerce.

First, the silver lining: baseline rates for many trading partners remain unchanged from the duties Trump imposed in April, which may ease investors’ worst fears - although with the S&P sitting at record highs it is difficult to claim anyone had any fears about anything - after the president had previously said they could even double. Yet Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% threatens to inject fresh tensions into an already strained relationship.

Trump signed the new tariff directive just hours before his prior Aug. 1 deadline for higher tariffs to kick in on scores of trading partners. As Bloomberg reports, most tariffs will take effect after midnight on Aug 7, to allow time for US Customs and Border Protection to make necessary changes to collect the levies.

Taken together, the result will be significantly higher tariffs on goods from almost all US trading partners. The average US tariff rate will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, according to Bloomberg Economics, an increase from 13.3%, and significantly higher than the 2.3% it was in 2024, before Trump took office.

Major industrialized economies, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, accepted 15% duties on their products, while charges on items from Mexico, Canada and China are even bigger.

Today's announcement notwithstanding, Trump is expected to unveil separate tariffs on imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals and other key industrial products in the coming weeks. Other details are also forthcoming, including so-called “rules of origin” to decide which products are transshipped, or routed through another country, and thus would face at least a 40% rate, a senior US official told Bloomberg, adding that a decision will be made in the coming weeks.  The senior US official said there is no date yet when revised auto tariff rates would be implemented.

Thursday’s order was signed behind closed doors without the fanfare of Trump’s April tariff rollout, during which he brandished placards with rates during a Rose Garden event. Since then Trump has faced criticism for overpromising on trade deals after he and aides vowed to broker numerous agreements, with at least one pledging “90 deals in 90 days.”

In the end, imports from about 40 countries will face the new 15% rate and roughly a dozen economies’ products will be hit with higher duties, either because they reached a deal or Trump sent them a letter unilaterally setting import taxes. The latter group has the highest goods-trade surpluses with the US. 

Some of those were expected, such as a 25% levy on Indian exports that Trump announced this week on social media. Others included charges of 20% on Taiwanese products and 30% on South African goods. Thailand and Cambodia, two countries that were said to have struck a last-minute deal, received a 19% duty, matching rates imposed on regional neighbors including Indonesia and the Philippines. Vietnam’s goods will be tariffed at 20%, according to the WSJ. 

Trump’s deals with the EU, Japan and South Korea would lower duties on their vehicle exports to 15% from the general rate of 25%. 

In a separate order, Trump followed through on his threat to hike tariffs on exports from Canada, one of the US’s largest trading partners, from 25% to 35% for goods that do not comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. That change excludes goods that are covered under the North American trade pact he negotiated in his first term. That stood in contrast to the 90-day extension Mexico received to negotiate a better agreement. Earlier in the day, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he agreed to extend for 90 days the existing tariffs on Mexican goods. He said a 25% fentanyl tariff, a 25% tariff on cars and a 50% tariff on steel, aluminum and copper would remain in place.

Still other nations are set to be hit with even higher tariffs. Trump has pledged to hike tariffs to 50% on Brazil over its digital policies and legal action against former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. 

The lower 10% and 15% rates are expected to apply to a wide range of mostly smaller- and medium-sized economies that Trump showed little interest in bargaining with one-on-one. He had signaled in recent days there were simply too many countries to cut individualized deals with all of them.  Some smaller states, however, were hit with the highest rates, including Syria at 41%, as well as Laos and Myanmar and 40% each, both preferred hubs of Chinese transshipments. 

The tiny African nation of Lesotho, however, which had been reeling from Trump’s threat in April to impose a 50% duty, instead received a 15% rate. That change puts the landlocked mountainous kingdom at an advantage against the far larger country that entirely surrounds it, South Africa.

One big exception from this week’s deadline is China, which faces an Aug. 12 deadline for its tariff truce with the US to expire. The Trump administration has signaled that is likely to be extended. No final decision has been made but the recent US-China talks in Stockholm were positive, the official said.

There were signs that Trump’s order took some partners by surprise. Taiwan’s cabinet said in a statement its rate was temporary, and that the US levy is expected to be reduced after more talks, which had been delayed by scheduling conflicts.

The announcement brings to a close, at least for now, months of wait-and-see about how Trump would set his country-based tariffs, which he billed as the centerpiece of his plan to shrink trade deficits and revive American manufacturing. Trump twice delayed his so-called reciprocal tariffs, first announced in April, to allow time for negotiations, first after markets panicked and then as foreign governments bargained to get better terms from the US.

“U.S. customs officials will face challenges implementing the EO, particularly with the different tariff rates now applied across the world,” said Wendy Cutler, a former US trade negotiator. “The seven day breathing period before implementation will help, but importers should expect start up problems at a minimum.”

Some analysts were worried that today's announcement will spark another round of selling similar to the post-Liberation day dump. “The reality is that we’re still going to see higher tariffs than pre-Liberation Day and we’ll start to see some economic impact of that in the months ahead,” said Shane Oliver, a Sydney-based chief investment officer at AMP Ltd. “There’s still uncertainty about China, Mexico has been delayed by another 90 days and details around sectoral tariffs are also yet to come.”

Others just can't wait to move on: “With the biggest economies having either already made a deal, had a postponement or been hit with another tariff hike that will probably be eventually negotiated lower (Canada), many traders seem to prefer to keep the focus on US NFP as the next likely catalyst for broad USD movement,” said Sean Callow, a senior analyst in Sydney

“I would have thought 10% baseline tariff was a positive surprise for risk, worth at least a little bounce on Aussie and the like, given Trump’s recent comments have referred to 15% or higher” Callow said, adding that “perhaps the main uncertainty had already been removed on the likes of South Korea, Japan, India and, for now, China.”

Asian stocks came under pressure after Trump announced the new rates, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping 0.5%, led by losses in South Korea and Taiwan. Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% while those for European stocks retreated 0.4%. The Taiwan dollar and Korean won led declines in currency markets, while the Swiss franc edged lower after the nation’s products were hit with a 39% charge, one of the few nations that saw its rate go up. The Canadian dollar held steady in the face of higher rates.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 23:58

Escobar: Chinese Foxes, American Sharks, & European Rodents

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The “BRICS lab” has a non-stop, ever-adapting creative spirit. Beats Tariff dementia everytime...

The fourth plenary session of the Communist Party of China has been scheduled by the Politburo for October (no precise data announced; probably four days during the second half of October). That’s when Beijing will be deliberating the lineaments of its next five-year plan. The plenum should be attended by over 370 Central Committee members of the party elite.

Why this is so crucial? Because China is the undisputed top target, alongside top BRICS members, of the new universal “law” devised by the Empire of Chaos: I Tariff, Therefore I Exist. So the next five-year plan will have to take into consideration all vectors deriving from the new “law”.

The plenum will take place a few weeks after Beijing stages a grand parade to celebrate the end of WWII; Vladimir Putin is one of Xi’s guests of honor.

Moreover, the plenum will be right before the annual APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit, starting October 31 in Seoul. This summit carries a window of opportunity for a direct, face to face Trump-Xi meeting – which the Circus Ringmaster, for all his posture and tergiversations, is actively pursuing.

The plenum will have to carefully weigh how a de facto trade, tech and geopolitical war between the US and China will only get more incandescent. As much as Made in China 2025 revealed itself to be a staggering success – maximum pressure from Trump 1.0 notwithstanding – new Chinese wave tech decisions taken in 2025 will define the road map ahead on everything from AI to quantum computing, biotechnology and controlled nuclear fusion.

I am so thrilled to be your lackey

Everything that matters on trade and tech will be decided between the two economic superpowers. By now it’s clear that a potential third actor, the EU, has simply committed serial suicide.

Let’s start with the China-EU summit on July 24 – which featured, among other niceties, Beijing protocol deigning to send at best a lowly tourist bus to greet the European delegation, and Xi Jinping for all practical purposes ending the summit before schedule in a message widely interpreted across the Global South as “we have no time to waste with you clowns”.

That’s exactly what the Circus Ringmaster wanted.

Then came the EU-US get together – which sealed, in spectacular fashion, the already accelerated phase of Europe’s Century of Humiliation.

It starts with Trump de facto erasing Russia from the EU’s energy future. Brussels has been forced – Mafioso “offer you can’t refuse”- style, to buy $250 billion of overpriced US energy a year, every year, for the next 3 years. And in the process be slapped with 15% tariffs – and like it.

So smashing Nord Stream 2 – an operation carried out by the previous D.C. autopen administration – had a clear imperial purpose from the start.

On top of it, the EU must pay for its – already lost – war in Ukraine by buying unlimited amounts of overpriced US weapons to the tune of 5% of GDP. That’s what Trump imposed NATO to impose on the EU. Follow the money.

Yet whatever the “deal” advertised with a profusion of superlatives by the Circus Ringmaster, the numbers don’t add up.

The EU spent a hefty 375 billion euros on energy in 2024; only 76 billion euros of these were paid to the US.

That means that the EU would have to buy three times more US energy over the next three years. And only LNG Made in USA: no Norway, for that matter, which sells cheaper pipeline gas.

Defying reality – and obviously not put in check by meek European mainstream media – the toxic Medusa in Brussels vociferated that US LNG is cheaper than Russian pipeline gas.

Moscow is not breaking a sweat – because its major clients are all across Eurasia. As for the Americans, they will not divert all their exports to the EU – as European refineries can only handle a limited supply of American shale oil. Moreover, there’s no way EUrocrats can force European energy companies to buy American.

So to round up their figures they will have to buy from somewhere else. That would be Norway – and even Russia, assuming the Russians will be interested.

Trump 2.0 was clever enough to “exempt” some sectors from the tariff dementia, such as aircraft and aircraft parts, semiconductors, critical chemicals and some agriculture. Of course: these are all part of strategic supply chains.

The only thing that really mattered overall was to lock up Europe as a massive buyer of American energy and force them to invest in US infrastructure and the industrial-military complex.

And that points to the only way to “escape” the tariff dementia: when faced with an “offer you can’t refuse”, you don’t refuse; you take it, like it, and offer all sorts of investment in the US. Ancient empires used to force their “partners” to pay tribute. Welcome to the 21st century version.

After all, what does Europe have to offer as leverage? Nothing. No European company on the global Tech Top Ten. Not even an European search engine; or globally successful smartphone; or operating system; or streaming platform; or cloud infrastructure. Not to mention no top semiconductor producer. And only one car maker among the global best-selling Top Ten.

All aboard “directed improvisation”

If the US sharks gave the EU rodents literally nothing, foxy China was benign enough to give just a little bit of something: a blah blah blah on climate change.

The end result – for the whole world to see: the EU as a sorry player carrying less than zero strategic autonomy on the global chessboard. It is royally ignored on the Empire’s Forever Wars – from Ukraine to West Asia. And it lectures Beijing – in Beijing – (italics mine) when it is totally dependent on Chinese raw materials, industrial equipment and complex supply chains for green and digital tech.

Yuen Yuen Ang, from Singapore, is a professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. She may need to tow the – strict – lines of US academia, which is exceptionalist by definition. But at least she’s capable of some valuable insights.

For instance: “We’re all suffering from an attention deficit. We used to read books, then articles, then essays, then blogs, and now it’s further reduced to tweets of 280 characters. So you can imagine what sorts of messages fit in that tiny space. It has to be simplistic.”

That cuts to the heart of how the Circus Ringmaster is conducting his foreign policy; ruling via an accumulation of nonsensical posts.

Yuen Yuen reaches more serious territory when she comments on how China “wants to retire an old economic model that was highly dependent on low-cost exports, construction and real estate. It wants hi-tech, innovation-driven development.”

That’s exactly what will be discussed at the heart of the plenum in Beijing in October.

Yuen Yuen also notes how “back in the 1980s and 1990s”, China could “imitate the late industrialisation model in East Asia. Today, there aren’t many role models. China itself has become a trailblazer, and other countries are seeing it as a role model.”

Hence her concept of “directed improvisation” – being conducted by the Beijing leadership. They know the preferred final destination, but still need to test all possible paths. The same, by the way, also applies to BRICS – via what I defined as the “BRICS lab”, where all sorts of models are being tested. What matters, above all, is a non-stop, ever-adapting creative spirit.

Beats Tariff dementia everytime.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 23:25

These Are The Best Military And Intelligence Unit Watches

Via Watches Of Espionage,

Customized Timepieces From Rolex, Breitling, Tudor, Bremont, & Omega

In the W.O.E. community, military "unit watches" are at the heart of modern watch culture. A unit watch is a timepiece that is customized by the manufacturer for members of a specific unit or organization. Customizations generally include the unit's insignia on the dial and/or an engraving on the caseback. Unit watches are generally private purchases, paid for by the individual operator, and not issued or purchased by the government.

Given our position at W.O.E., I think I can safely say that no one on this planet knows more about unit watches. Whether this is something to be proud of or not, you can decide. Today, we take a look at a few of my favorite unit watches from some of Swiss watchmaking's greatest names.

Since I launched W.O.E., I have noticed an uptick in unit watches. What was once reserved primarily for elite aviation and SpecOps units has trickled down to law enforcement, conventional military units, and intelligence organizations. If I can be so arrogant as to suggest it, W.O.E. has had a significant impact in bringing awareness and increasing unit watch adoption. (End Humble Brag - Break)

You will notice that most of the watches in this Dispatch come from major Swiss watch brands: IWC, Breitling, Tudor, and Omega. Smaller brands like Christopher Ward, Sangin, Pagoda, Elliot Brown, and many others are making significant headway in this space. We may have to make another list. Stay tuned.

US Army Delta Force Breitling Superocean

Starting off with a bang, in 2009/2010, 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment - Delta, AKA Delta Force, commissioned a custom Breitling Superocean. The subtle unit insignia is printed on the dial at nine o'clock, and "Oppressors Beware" is engraved on the side of the case. 50 total were made. In my discussions with operators from the era, these watches were sometimes worn on operations, but they were generally reserved for time off and low-intensity training. Many former operators continue to wear the watches to this day as mementos of their service with the Army's Tier One SpecOps unit.

Unit members in the late 2000s experienced some of the most sustained combat of any SpecOps operating in Iraq, Afghanistan, and in other countries as a part of the Global War on Terror (GWOT). The fact that an operator took the time to step back and commemorate this unit with a custom watch is special and indicative of the roles of timepieces as mementos among the military elite. All of the examples of the Delta Breitling we have seen are well worn after years of hard use, the way it should be.

Australian SAS Omega Seamaster

We have covered Omega's modern Unit Watch program extensively, but Omega's relationship with intelligence and SOF units goes back decades. In the early 2000s, Omega produced several unit watches for the British Special Air Service (SAS) and Special Boat Service (SBS). By 2012, the Australian SAS wanted in on the action and commissioned an Omega Seamaster with the SAS Winged Dagger over the outline of Australia on the caseback. The case back is also engraved with the member's year of selection, his PMKEYS (regimental number), and "Happy Wanderer", the unit's marching song.

The watches were again commissioned in 2016. The first batch could be purchased by both serving and former SASR operators, the latter only by those still serving. According to former SASR operator Andy White, the Omega Seamaster was chosen specifically due to SASR's dive capability and operators spending so much time above and below the water's surface.

SGT Diddams MG, a close friend of White, was KIA in Afghanistan in 2012. In January 2021, while his family moved from Melbourne to Perth, his watch, an irreplaceable heirloom, was stolen from their car. It's identical to the one pictured, with the only differences being the selection date and his number: 95/8239384. Please keep an eye out for the watch.

Italian "Polipetto" Rolex Sea-Dweller

When it comes to unit watches, Rolex is the gold standard, having produced some of the most sought-after and collectable references (read expensive). While the British SAS Submariner and Explorer IIs are probably the most well-known, there are several more obscure references, and one of our favorites is the so-called "Polipetto", a customized 16600 Sea-Dweller made for the diving branch of the Polizia di Stato or Italian National Police.

Part of the watch's charm is the unit's insignia, a stylized octopus, which is printed on the dial at nine o'clock, along with a custom caseback engraving. Among the most coveted and collectible modern Rolex sport watches, only 78 examples were produced, and of those, only 28 bear the service number of the individual diver on the caseback. In addition, the 16600 is perhaps the last great Sea-Dweller, with a 40mm case, no lame "Rolex" text on the rehaut, an aluminum bezel insert, and even lug holes on some examples. Slap an octopus insignia on there, and it's easy to see how one Polipetto example hammered for 165,100 Swiss Francs (around $207k) in 2024.

Canadian Tudor Pelagos 39

Tudor is arguably the leader in modern unit watches, having produced customized versions of their tool watch line for everyone from the 75th Ranger Regiment to the US Secret Service Counter Assault Team (CAT, AKA Hawkeye). It is difficult to narrow these down to a "favorite", but for the purposes of this Dispatch, I'm going to go with the custom Pelagos 39 developed for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police's Emergency Response Team (ERT).

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police's Emergency Response Team (ERT) is Canada's federal tactical unit tasked with CT, high-risk arrests, and hostage rescue, a loose equivalent to FBI's Hostage Rescue Team (HRT).

The watch contains an ERT crest on the dial, which represents the original teams consisting of six members and one team leader (7 maple leaves), a Cavalry sword, and a .308 rifle. The coolest part of this watch is the lume; the maple leaves are not lumed, which results in a cool contrast with the rifle and saber standing out. A total of 83 were produced and delivered in early 2025.

UK' Special Reconnaissance Regiment' Rolex Submariner

There are military watches, and then there are modern legends. This Rolex Submariner, engraved with the insignia of the UK's Special Reconnaissance Regiment (SRR), falls squarely into the latter category. The emblem says it all: a Spartan helmet intersected by a sword, surrounded by smaller Spartan helmets, a nod to a unit that doesn't seek recognition and rarely grants it. This was produced in 2013, and Rolex ceased these unit-specific customizations not long after, handing the torch to Tudor, which continued the tradition of partnering with elite units.

Watches like this SRR Submariner and the famed SAS Explorer II are among the last of their kind. Military-commissioned Rolexes with real operational provenance are increasingly rare. Last year, one was auctioned off by Sotheby's for a whopping 36k British pounds, which amounts to over $46k in real money (at the time).

Will Rolex ever restart its unit watch program? It's hard to say, but we would love to see it.

French Olympic Omega Seamaster Diver 300

We have covered the new Omega Seamaster unit watches at length, so we won't beat a dead horse here. There have been some great unit watches developed, many of them not seen by the wider public or posted on social media.

That said, there is one that stands out. Omega produced a Seamaster for the three elite French law enforcement units tasked with security for the event: GIGN, RAID, and BRI. This is one of the few examples I have seen of a unit watch developed for three separate units, which makes it stand out.

Omega was the official timekeeper of the 2024 Olympics, and while marketing stuff is fun, a GIGN/RAID/BRI unit Seamaster is what really gets us going. Beyond the insignia on the case back, this is effectively the same watch as the one utilized by US Secret Service officers during the recent assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump and a unit-specific model created for the Danish Frogman Corps.

US Navy's IWC Top Gun

When it comes to aviation squadron watches, IWC Schaffhausen is king.  There are numerous notable IWC squadron watches, but arguably the most well-known is the brand's partnership with the United States Navy Fighter Weapons School (the real TOPGUN). But interestingly, this didn't start as a unit watch, but a commercial endeavor.

In 2007, IWC entered a commercial relationship with the US Navy, becoming an official licensee and beginning its line of TOP GUN watches. Featuring the logo of the 1980s hit movie of the same name, the series of watches became a staple of IWC's offerings with licensing fees directly funding morale, welfare, and recreation programs for US sailors, retirees, and their families.

This prepared the foundation of a more organic relationship, IWC's foray into custom squadron watches. Having seen watches from the TOP GUN commercial line, pilots from the United States Navy Fighter Weapons School reached out to IWC to investigate the feasibility of making a unit watch for the Strike Fighter Tactics Instructor (SFTI) program.

The result was the 2018 release of the IWC's first custom military piece: the Edition 'SFTI' in both a Pilot's Watch Mark XVIII and a Pilot's Watch Chronograph. These exclusive watches continue to be made today, but can only be purchased by TOPGUN graduates, the way it should be.

US-Afghan Special Mission Wing Bremont

The Special Mission Wing, AKA "the triple seven," was an Afghan unit trained and mentored by Americans for air lift assets, most notably the Russian-built Mi-17. This watch was produced by Bremont for the American servicemen supporting that unit. Bremont's custom unit watch program has produced some unique timepieces for UK, US, and Australian SOF and aviation units, and was a leader until the recent redirection of the company under CEO Davide Cerrato.

The insignia at twelve o'clock is taken from the Special Operations Joint Task Force - Afghanistan insignia, while each of the numbers around the dial is representative of the Dari script. The 7 (V) is flanked by two "ghost" 7s representing the 777 Special Mission Wing (VVV). The helicopter is the Mi-17V5, which was purchased by the US government for the Government of Afghanistan and flown by both NATO and Afghan crews. Finally, the Cyrillic underneath the Bremont prop is a Russian transliteration of Bremont and is a tribute to the Russian heritage of the Mi-17.

We are big fans of "Arabic dials" (in this case Dari), and this is a cool piece.   Unfortunately, the 777 SMW was disbanded after the US pulled out. Many of the pilots made it to freedom, where they are working to get their families out as well.

UK Special Air Service Breitling Avenger

I have a hypothesis that unit watch culture in the United States Special Operations Forces originated with our cousins across the pond in the UK.  In 2003/2004, approximately six years before Delta Force's unit Breitling, the UK's Special Air Service (SAS) ordered a customized unit watch, a Breitling Avenger Seawolf with the SAS insignia at nine o'clock.

We spoke with former SAS Melvyn Downes about this piece, who said around 200 were produced. Only serving 22 SAS operators could purchase the watch and all were individually numbered. Some active members of SAS sold them to former members. Given the amount of cross training and deployments between UKSF and Delta, I assess with medium confidence the Delta Breitling was born out of this relationship.

French Marine Nationale (MN) Tudor Pelagos FXD

In contrast to many of the watches included here, which are small batch custom versions of core models within each brand's standard civilian catalog, the Tudor Pelagos FXD owes its very existence to an elite military unit. Leaning into a partnership that started in the 1950s, the Commando Hubert, the French Navy's elite maritime special operations unit, asked Tudor to develop a new dive watch for the specific use case of its combat swimmers.

With integrated "fixed" lugs and a bidirectional countdown bezel, the Commando Hubert version of the watch has only two lines of text at six o'clock: "Pelagos" and "200m" as well as a unique dive strap and custom caseback. Soon after the watch was created, Tudor released the civilian FXD in 2021 to massive fanfare among the Use Your Tools crowd, with the also-sexy black variant coming in 2023.

Over the past couple of years, the Pelagos has become a popular platform for other unit watch projects, but what is even cooler about the FXD is that the watch itself was organically developed for SpecOps end users.

US SEAL Team Six Tudor Pelagos FXD

When Tudor released the "Black FXD" in September 2023, we published a Dispatch on the background of how the original Blue FXD was developed in partnership with SEAL Team Six. While we sought approval to tell the story prior to release, it gained more traction than expected, and we took it down at the request of those involved.

Fast forward to today, and the cat is very much out of the bag. The watch has been posted on social media, seen at public events, and even discussed at length by a former member of the Command during a recent episode of the Unsubscribe podcast.

Most recently, the watch was seen on the wrist of former Gold Squadron member, Fleet Master Chief Dave Isom, when he took over as the Senior Enlisted Advisor to the Chairman (SEAC) of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In contrast to the commercially available version, the Gold Squadron FXD has a simpler "two-line" dial with "PELAGOS" executed in gold and "660 ft". Most visibly, the hook and loop strap boasts a gold center stripe, in contrast to the regular red stripe. Each squadron has its own version with the squadron insignia on the caseback. Very cool.

Final Thoughts - Should You Collect These Watches?

Decades from now, the individuals who earned these watches will have all moved on in their lives and into retirement, and their unit watches will be among the few lasting, and wearable, reminders of their service. What makes these timepieces special is that they can't be bought; they must be earned.

That said, inevitably, some unit watches do end up at auction, fetching upwards of $30-50k on the open market in many cases. Watches that were originally designed and intended as keepsakes for a select few can now be purchased by the highest bidder.

While it is unfortunate that some practitioners choose to part with these meaningful timepieces, I also understand that life circumstances change, and the astronomical secondary market pricing can be irresistible. That said, it is a shame that those practitioner's great-grandchildren won't be able to treasure the watches worn by their ancestors.

For collectors, I understand the attraction, but I also think it is a little bit strange to wear a modern watch like this that you have no direct relationship with. No, I wouldn't go as far as to say it is "stolen valor," but there is something about it that just doesn't feel right. From a collector's standpoint, there is a difference in my mind between new "unit watches" and vintage military-issued watches. As the decades roll on, maybe my feelings will change.

For me, when a watch like this comes up for auction, the life is sucked out of it. I am naive about the auction world, but from the outside looking in, it appears to be champagne and cocaine, a part of the watch industry I just don't relate to. The fact that an earned watch can be acquired by the highest bidder, who almost certainly isn't the kind of person who would have earned the watch in the first place, just doesn't pass the smell test.

That said, I believe in the basic principles of capitalism and do not fault anyone involved. We see the world as it is, not as we feel it should be.

*   *   * 

Seperate, but awesome...

. . . 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 22:35

"Medicaid Millionaire": Louisiana Woman Facing Fraud Charges After Buying Lamborghini While Illegally Collecting Benefits

A Louisiana woman dubbed the “Medicaid millionaire” is facing fraud charges after allegedly buying a Lamborghini while illegally collecting Medicaid benefits, according to the state attorney general’s office, reported by Fox News.

Candace Taylor, 35, of Slidell, was arrested Monday after investigators found she underreported her income to qualify for the program. The Louisiana Bureau of Investigation launched its probe after a complaint from the state health department.

The Fox News report says court records say Taylor ran six businesses that brought in over $9.5 million between 2020 and 2024. Bank records show deposits of $480,994, including more than $325,000 linked to her businesses.

Photo: Fox News

“From 2021 through 2024, Ms. Taylor continued to transfer tens of thousands of dollars between her personal and business accounts, with personal inflows consistently exceeding the eligibility thresholds for Medicaid,” the affidavit states.

Despite this, Taylor allegedly kept renewing her benefits—most recently claiming $4,000 in monthly income without disclosing she owned the business.

Authorities say her spending included $45,086 in Audi vehicle payments, a $100,000 wire to an exotic car dealer, and $13,000 for a 2022 Lamborghini Urus. She also allegedly withdrew multiple six-figure cashier’s checks for property, cosmetic surgery, jewelry, and luxury services.

Taylor’s first Medicaid application in 2019—filed under the name “Candace Sailor”—was denied. Less than a year later, she re-applied under the same name with inconsistent information about dependents.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 20:30

Is Trump Hellbent On Derailing India's Rise As A Great Power

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Trump raged against India on Wednesday in a series of posts announcing his 25% tariff on its exports on the pretext of its trade barriers and close ties with Russia.

He then announced an oil deal with Pakistan and predicted that “maybe they'll be selling Oil to India some day!”

His final post described India’s economy as “dead” and claimed that “We have done very little business with India” despite it being the fastest-growing major economy in the world and bilateral trade amounting to nearly $130 billion in 2024.

India’s Ministry of Commerce & Industry calmly responded to Trump’s tariff announcement by reaffirming its commitment to talks and declaring that the state “will take all steps necessary to secure our national interest”, which likely infuriated him since he probably expected Modi to anxiously call him.

The favorable trade deal that he clinched with Japan last week and the totally lopsided one with the EU that followed emboldened him into playing hardball with India upon thinking that it’ll fall into line too.

The US wants India to open its agricultural and dairy markets, stop its massive import of discounted Russian oil, and rapidly diversify away from Russian military equipment.

Complying with the first demand would be disastrous for the 46% of the Indian workforce employed in these industries, however, while the second would risk decelerating its economic growth and the third would make its security dependent on the US. The end result would therefore derail India’s rise as a Great Power and turn it into a US vassal.

Trump is hellbent on doing precisely that, which is the continuation of Biden’s policy, as explained below:

* 13 December 2022: “Will The US Sell India Out To China To Sweeten The Deal For A Sino-American New Détente?”

* 14 May 2025: “There Might Be A Method To The Madness Of Trump Unexpectedly Damaging Indo-US Ties”

* 16 May 2025: “Trump’s Desired Return To Bagram Airbase Could Reshape South Asian Geopolitics”

* 7 June 2025: “The US Is Once Again Trying To Subordinate India”

* 13 July 2025: “The US-Pakistani Rapprochement Could Have Far-Reaching Geostrategic Consequences”

These analyses will now be summarized for the reader’s convenience and placed in the current context.

In brief, India’s Russian-assisted rise as a Great Power hastens the coming of tri-multipolarity that’ll in turn help midwife complex multipolarity, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of ever restoring US-led unipolarity or the short-lived period of informal Sino-US bi-multipolarity (“G2”/“Chimerica”).

Russia’s special operation and the West’s reaction to it revolutionized International Relations and created the opportunity for India to make up for lost time in becoming a Great Power with truly global influence.

The US responded to these developments by attempting to subordinate India via election meddling, infowars, and dual geopolitical pivots to Bangladesh (whose prior long-serving leader it helped depose) and Pakistan to pile on the pressure in pursuit of this goal or to contain India if it still refuses to concede.

Complementary elements of this pressure campaign include political support for Delhi-designated “Khalistani” separatists-terrorists and spring 2023’s violent ethno-religious unrest in Manipur.

If Trump’s tariffs don’t coerce India into becoming a US vassal, which the US would then exploit to coerce concessions from China in advance of its ultimate goal of restoring unipolarity, then he might settle for letting China subordinate India instead as part of the “G2”/“Chimerica” scenario.

Either way, he doesn’t expect India’s rise as a Great Power to continue due to the zero-sum dilemma in which the tariffs were meant to place it between becoming the US’ or China’s vassal, but India might still surprise everyone.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 20:05

Apple Shares Rise On Top- & Bottom-Line Beat; China Returns To Growth

Ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon, which concludes the results from big 4 group of the Mag 7 (including MSFT, META and AMZN) Goldman notes the tech giant is a very clear outlier from a sentiment, flow, and positioning perspective relative to its Mega-Cap Tech peers. As the largest Mutual Fund Underweight in the market and a popular HF relative short, AAPL has represented a significant source of “performance Alpha” for most this year (stock -17% vs. NDX +9%) and Goldman has it as a 4 on 1-10 positioning scale.

As a reminder, Apple declined to give any form of guidance for services revenue in the June quarter, citing uncertainty. The services segment is under fire from regulators globally, who are upending App Store policies in a way that could dramatically reduce revenue from apps and subscriptions.

While a beat was expected in the quarter (and most were 'respectful' of that dynamic), but long term uncertainties around AAPL's competitive positioning feel like they remain as high as ever heading into tonight's results.

Just 30 minutes after AMZN disappointed with lackluster AWS growth and a soft operating income outlook, AAPL flipped the script with a big top- and bottom-line beat:

• *APPLE 3Q REV. $94.04B, EST. $89.3B

• *APPLE 3Q EPS $1.57, EST. $1.43

The best YoY revenue growth since Q4 2021:

Under the hood, it was mixed with products beating expectations led by iPhone and Mac revenue, while iPad and Wearables disappointed...

• *APPLE 3Q PRODUCTS REV. BEAT $66.61B, EST. $62.36B

  • *APPLE 3Q IPHONE REVENUE BEAT $44.58B, EST. $40.06B, +13%

  • *APPLE 3Q MAC REVENUE BEAT $8.05B, EST. $7.3B, +15%

  • *APPLE 3Q IPAD REVENUE MISS $6.58B, EST. $7.07B, -8%

  • *APPLE 3Q WEARABLES, HOME & ACCESSORIES MISS $7.40B, EST. $7.78B, -8.6%

Bloomberg points out that the iPad’s decline of 8% can probably be explained by the mediocre updates this year. There was no new iPad Pro, and the iPad Air and low-end iPad refreshes were both minor. 

China revenue is back to growth, up 4.35%...

• *APPLE 3Q GREATER CHINA REV. $15.37B, EST. $15.19B

Apple Services revenue hit a new record high ($27.4 Billion)...

CEO Tim Cook on the quarter: 

“Today Apple is proud to report a June quarter revenue record with double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac and Services and growth around the world, in every geographic segment.”

AAPL rallied back to unchanged on the day ahead of earnings and extended gains modestly after the results...

CEO Tim Cook has been reluctant to offer guidance in recent calls, but we note that the iPhone (and China) beat was likely driven by shoppers flooding Apple stores earlier in the quarter when they feared immediate price hikes.

That pull-forward could cause trouble for the next quarter.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 16:45

Amazon Slides On Soft Profit Guidance, Declining AWS Margins

With MSFT and META blowing away expectations yesterday and sending the Nasdaq to a new record high, if only to see all those gains disappear during the day, today attention turns to the other two Mag7 giants, AAPL and AMZN, with the latter reporting right after the close, and the former waiting the usual 30 minutes. As we reported in our preview, positioning both companies has been relatively weaker, with Goldman having AMZN at 7 out of 10 (AAPL is even worse at 4 out of 10), so expectations were more modest compared to yesterday's two juggernauts heading into earnings where the buyside bogeys are as follows: i) AWS growth of ~17% Q2 and ~18% Q3, with perhaps some upside risk to the Q3 number with GOOGL highlighting AI capacity coming online faster (note, management don’t guide that number); ii) Q2 net sales and EBIT high end of respective guides ($159-164B and $13-17.5B); iii) Q3 guidance of net sales $176B & EBIT ~$20B (both high-ends; iv) Post GOOGL, some expectation that AMZN tweak up the 2025 capex outlook from current ~$105BN.

With that in mind, and considering the stock is now trading red after kneejerking green, it appears that the skeptics may have been right. 

Here is what Amazon reported moments ago:

• EPS $1.68 vs. $1.59 q/q, beating estimate $1.33
   
• Net sales $167.70 billion, +13% y/y, beating estimates of $162.15 billion, and above the upper end of the company's guidance range of $159-$164BN
• Online stores net sales $61.49 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimates $59.13 billion
• Physical Stores net sales $5.60 billion, +7.5% y/y, beating estimates $5.49 billion
• Third-Party Seller Services net sales $40.35 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimate $38.97 billion
• Third-party seller services net sales excluding F/X +10% vs. +13% y/y, estimate +7.49%
• Subscription Services net sales $12.21 billion, beating estimate $11.92 billion
• Subscription services net sales excluding F/X +11%, beating estimate +9.68%

Geographically, the results were strong all around:

• North America net sales $100.07 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimate $97.36 billion
• International net sales $36.76 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $34.21 billion

So far so good, with every line time beating. But what the market was especially focused on was the high margin AWS data, and here numbers also beat solidly: 

• AWS net sales $30.87 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimate $30.77 billion
• Amazon Web Services net sales excluding F/X +17% vs. +19% y/y, beating estimate +17%

Turning to operating profits, here the results were also uniformly solid:

• Operating income $19.17 billion, +31% y/y, beating estimates $17 billion, and above the upper end of the company's guided range of $13Bn - $17.5BN
• Operating margin 11.4% vs. 9.9% y/y, beating estimate 10.4%
• North America operating margin +7.5% vs. +5.6% y/y, beating estimate +5.78%
• International operating margin 4.1% vs. 0.9% y/y, beating estimate 1.87%

As for fulfillment expenses, these came in slightly above estimates, while the seller unit mix was slightly worse than expected. These may continue to deteriorate as tariffs rise: 

• Fulfillment expense $25.98 billion, +10% y/y, estimate $25.74 billion
• Seller unit mix 62% vs. 61% y/y, estimate 61.5%

Of the above, the most notable highlight - as per our preview - was AWS which grew revenue by 17% to $30.9BN, just above the sellside estimate of $30.77BN. The problem: the growth rate is clearly slowing.

And if revenue growth for AWS just barely beat, what Wall Street may have been growing on is the continued decline in AWS operating margins, which at 32.9% was the lowest since 2023 and a drop both MoM and YoY. Elsewhere, North American profit rose to $7.517 billion, resulting in a profit of 7.51%, beating estimates of 5.6%, while international margins rose to 4.06%, up from 0.9% and also beating estimates of 1.87%

As a result of the drop in AWS profits, Amazon's consolidated operating margin posted a sequential drop and in Q2 declined from a record high of 11.8% to 11.4%.

However, while the above data was mixed if generally solid, it was the company's guidance that led to an after hours drop in the stock; that's because the company projected profit and revenue in the current quarter both of which were seen as coming in soft vs Wall Street expectations:

• Sees net sales $174.0 billion to $179.5 billion, above the estimate of $173.2 billion
• Sees operating income $15.5 billion to $2.05 billion, with the midpoint coming below the estimate of $19.42 billion, vs $14.7 billion in Q2 2024.

This means that revenue growth in Q2 is expected to print 13.1% YoY, or roughly where Q1 came.

In response to the soft guidance and the disappointing AWS profit, the stock initially pumped but then promptly dumped as it now appears that the stellar results from yesterday are unlikely to be repeated...

... as attention now turns to AAPL.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 16:32

Taibbi: New Whistleblower Report Drops As Pressure Mounts In Russia Case

Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

I arrived in Washington for an event last night, trying to finish the story about former CIA official Susan Miller’s disputed biography on my phone, when new information dropped from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s office. Before heading home today (with a pause to record America This Week from a hotel), I wanted to catch readers up on new developments, and explain some of what we’ll will be publishing in the next week or so, as a wall of nonsense enters crumble mode.

CAR POO? From left, James Comey, John Brennan, and James Clapper

Tulsi’s new document is a whistleblower statement, from a former “Deputy National Intelligence Officer (DNIO) at the National Intelligence Council (NIC).” The former official’s story mostly surrounds his suppressed objections to the use of unverifiable evidence in the Russiagate assessment, and subsequent odyssey through the whistleblower bureaucracy. A tale I’d never heard before, that the dossier material was inserted during a car ride involving James Comey, James Clapper, and John Brennan, makes a cameo. The jokes write themselves:

An additional interesting angle has to do with the investigation of Special Counsel John Durham and the whistleblower’s apparent inability across years to connect with him, despite appearing to have evidence relevant to his probe. If you want to know why few people in federal service blow the whistle, this excerpt might offer insight:

The IC IG staff stated to me — for the first time — that the IC IG lacked a mechanism or authority to convey potentially relevant whistleblower information, regarding potential criminal activity, to the Department of Justice (DOJ) Special Counsel. IC IG staff acknowledged the possibility that I had witnessed malfeasance and events of possible relevance to ongoing criminal investigations being conducted by Special Counsel Durham, but the IC IG staff stated no procedure existed to pass information to DOJ investigators, save my taking action in personal capacity.

That’s Catch-22 in life. Intelligence personnel who witness malfeasance are trained to go to the IC Inspector General, but when this whistleblower went to that office, he was essentially handed back the line made famous by Maine humorist Marshall Dodge: “You can’t get there from here.”

Rumors continue to circulate about the possible incipient publication of a classified annex to Durham’s investigation. A lot of people are waiting for that document. Meanwhile, Greg Collard published a Racket Library page containing an archive of the recently declassified materials. Greg does a great job detailing the chronology of this story, showing dates of document releases and statements along with clips of coverage to show the progress of media reactions. We’ll be adding as we go to this timeline, which readers will know by another memorable illustration by Daniel Medina:

The image of Brennan in “Take my wife, please” mode fits the moment, as Walter and I will discuss on tomorrow’s America This Week. There is a definite rats-fleeing-a-sinking-ship vibe around the original protagonists in this story. Brennan and Clapper pointed fingers at Comey in a remarkably poisonous “It wasn’t us!” editorial in the New York Times; former National Security Adviser Susan Rice wore out the all-caps function in one of a series of nervy tweets on this topic; and John Kerry “protected” his social media record. This is all in addition to once-ubiquitous CIA spokesperson Susan Miller’s “Yeah, that’s the ticket” act about having authored or directed the Intelligence Community Assessment team blowing up yesterday in bizarre fashion.

Racket will have a feature coming soon by UndeadFOIA, explaining little-known documents relevant to this case obtained by his public records requests across years. These shed a lot of new light on how we got where we are. We’re pushing this now because there’s a strong sense one of the major deceptions of our era is about to fall, and we all want it documented cleanly. Please hang in there with us.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 16:25

USA Rare Earth Shares Jump 15% After Trump Admin Extends Support To Companies Other Than MP

Shares of USA Rare Earth are rocketing higher this afternoon after it was reported that the Trump administration is moving to extend price support mechanisms for U.S. rare earth projects to other companies, broadening a policy that previously focused on MP Materials to include other mining, refining, and magnet production firms.

USA Rare Earth is the obvious #2 name in the U.S. that such an expansion may have an impact on. scale, government stake, and strategic timing. Shares quickly popped 15% on the news:

This expansion will provide guaranteed price floors for key rare earth elements, reducing the investment risk that has historically deterred private capital. The approach mirrors the strategy used to back MP Materials earlier this year, where government involvement transformed market confidence and secured long-term domestic supply.

Top White House officials have told rare earth companies that they are pursuing a pandemic-style strategy to strengthen U.S. critical minerals production and counter China’s market dominance by setting a guaranteed minimum price for their products, according to five sources familiar with the plan, per Reuters.

The previously unreported July 24 meeting, led by President Donald Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro and National Security Council supply chain official David Copley, included ten rare earth firms alongside major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Corning—all of which depend on reliable supplies of critical minerals for electronics manufacturing.

The precedent for this move was set in July when the Pentagon made an unprecedented $400 million equity investment in MP Materials, the operator of the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California. As part of that deal, the Department of Defense became MP’s largest shareholder and locked in a 10-year price floor for neodymium-praseodymium oxide at roughly $110 per kilogram—nearly double prevailing Chinese spot prices.

Alongside the equity, the Pentagon committed to purchasing MP’s entire magnet output for a decade, while private lenders like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs provided over a billion dollars in commercial financing to scale production.

MP Materials’ stock reaction was swift and dramatic. On the day the Pentagon’s investment was announced, MP shares surged more than 50% as investors priced in the guaranteed revenue and government backing. In the days that followed, the stock rallied further after Apple revealed a $500 million supply deal with MP, ultimately pushing the company’s year-to-date gains to well over 200–250% by mid-July.

The market capitalization climbed toward $9.5 billion, marking one of the most significant single-year jumps for a U.S. resource company in recent memory.

Navarro and Copley emphasized that the price floor arrangement granted to MP Materials earlier this month as part of a multibillion-dollar Pentagon investment was “not a one-off” and that similar agreements were being developed for other companies. For years, U.S. critical minerals producers have argued that China’s market dominance deters investment in domestic mining projects, and they have pushed for federally backed price guarantees to reduce risk.

Rare earths—17 metals essential for manufacturing magnets that convert power into motion—are widely used in electronics, including smartphones and military hardware.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 16:10

Ethereum Turns 10: Here's How Its Booms & Busts Shaped History

Authored by Yohan Yun via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ethereum celebrated its 10-year anniversary on Wednesday, with renewed institutional momentum fueling hopes that Ether could challenge its all-time high that was set in November 2021.

Over the past decade, Ethereum has become the largest decentralized finance (DeFi) blockchain, with nearly $85 billion in total value locked (TVL) at the time of writing.

Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, circulated an early version of the white paper in 2013. The project raised $18.3 million in its initial coin offering (ICO) and officially launched in 2015 as a blockchain for smart contracts. Its cryptocurrency, Ether, now ranks as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization after Bitcoin.

Here’s a look back into Ethereum’s first decade, featuring the ICO boom, DeFi summer and the rise and fall of non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

Ethereum’s history has been full of crazes, such as ICOs, NFTs and airdrops.

2015-2016: The birth of Ethereum and The DAO hack

In April 2016, The DAO launched as a decentralized venture capital project designed to let tokenholders vote on how the entity invests its funds. But it didn’t last long — it suffered an exploit worth around $60 million in June 2016. 

Throughout the decade, several Ethereum-based projects fell victim to cyberattacks. But this one is remembered as a critical bifurcation in Ethereum’s history, as developers and the community made a controversial decision to hard fork the blockchain and reverse the network to the moment before the theft.

This led to a permanent chain split. The new chain that came out of the fork continued with Ethereum’s brand and majority support. A smaller group remained on the original blockchain, which is now known as Ethereum Classic.

Ethereum Classic did not enjoy Ethereum’s success after the chain split. Source: CoinGecko

2017-2018: Ethereum explodes with the ICO boom

Ethereum was the go-to platform for ICOs, thanks to the rise of the ERC-20 token standard, which made it possible to launch token projects without the need to develop a new blockchain. Some projects were genuine. They used Ethereum’s ICO as a launchpad to migrate to their own networks (though plenty of them were useless.)

Ether surged from under $10 at the start of 2017 to a then-all-time high of about $1,450 by January 2018. Bitcoin also reached a new ceiling above $19,000 during the ICO craze.

Ethereum’s surge during the ICO boom. Source: CoinGecko

The speculation wasn’t limited to ICOs. Ethereum also hosted CryptoKitties, a viral NFT game where players collect and breed cartoon cats. Its success in late 2017 clogged the Ethereum network.

The Ethereum gas fee spike during CryptoKitties’ rise foreshadowed future scalability issues. Source: Etherscan

In early 2018, regulators began to crack down on unregistered securities offerings. Throughout the year, the US Securities and Exchange Commission filed lawsuits and issued subpoenas to hunt down many ICOs accused of violating securities laws.

Most ICO-funded projects failed to deliver, and prices collapsed. By December 2018, ETH had fallen to around $85.

2019-2020: DeFi Summer scorches Ethereum

Ether spent much of 2019 hovering between $100 and $300, a period now remembered as the first crypto winter. Developers focused on infrastructure, while projects such as MakerDAO, Compound and Uniswap built the foundation for a new kind of financial system based on smart contracts instead of banks.

Ethereum’s DeFi TVL topped $1 billion for the first time during DeFi summer. Source: DefiLlama

By mid-2020, Ethereum had transformed from a post-ICO wasteland into the base layer of DeFi. Compound launched its governance token, COMP, and kicked off a yield farming frenzy that rewarded users for locking assets in DeFi protocols. Ethereum’s network usage spiked, gas fees soared and ETH followed suit, climbing to over $750 by the end of the year.

2021: Ethereum meets superstars through NFTs

Ethereum’s next breakout came through art and memes. In 2021, NFTs captured the cultural zeitgeist as projects like CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club turned pixelated avatars into mainstream status symbols. In March 2021, digital artist Beeple sold an NFT artwork for $69 million at Christie’s.

OpenSea, the leading NFT marketplace at the time, saw a surge in trading volume and briefly became one of the highest-earning decentralized apps (DApps) on Ethereum. Celebrities, brands and influencers piled in, with Ethereum taking center stage in pop culture.

NBA star Stephen Curry joins BAYC. Source: CryptoStorm

ETH reached an all-time high of $4,891 in November. But the flood of activity exposed Ethereum’s limits. Gas fees became unaffordable for casual users and turned transactions into luxury events.

2022: Ethereum merges as crypto crashes

The year 2022 was brutal for crypto as a whole, not just Ethereum. A cascading series of collapses — starting with Terra’s failed algorithmic stablecoin and culminating in the FTX implosion — wiped out billions in crypto. ETH dropped from around $3,800 in January to around $1,000 in June, dragged down by marketwide panic and liquidity crises.

Amid the wreckage, Ethereum pulled off one of the most anticipated upgrades in blockchain history. On Sept. 15, 2022, it successfully completed the Merge, transitioning from the energy-intensive proof-of-work consensus mechanism to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Ethereum completes key upgrade as the crypto market descends into chaos. Source: Vitalik Buterin

2023: Ethereum rollups, recovery and the return of airdrops

With PoS live, developers turned their attention to layer-2 (L2) solutions that process transactions offchain while relying on Ethereum for security. Arbitrum, Optimism and zkSync emerged as early leaders in this new frontier.

The new projects also brought in a new wave of airdrop speculation. Inspired by Uniswap’s 2020 giveaway, users began farming activity across emerging protocols in hopes of qualifying for future token drops. In March 2023, Arbitrum’s long-awaited airdrop went live, distributing Arbitrum tokens to early users and reigniting excitement across the ecosystem. Optimism also had its second and third airdrops later that year.

Meanwhile, liquid staking tokens such as Lido, Rocket Pool and Coinbase’s cbETH became the dominant method to stake ETH, as they allowed users to earn yield while maintaining liquidity.

Liquid staking accounted for over a third of Ethereum’s staking by July 2023. Source: Binance

By contrast, DeFi and NFT activity had cooled from their 2021 highs. ETH’s price started the year at around $1,200 and climbed to around $2,300 by the end of the year.

2024: Ethereum fragmentation and ETF momentum

L2s exploded in 2024 as liquidity scattered across the Ethereum ecosystem. The growth of chains like Base, Mantle, Blast, zkSync and others led to the creation of siloed environments. Each L2 hosted its own decentralized exchanges and liquidity pools, which meant assets like ETH and USDC were no longer easily interchangeable across networks.

The Ethereum Improvement Proposal 4844 upgrade, implemented in March 2024, reduced costs and accelerated the shift to rollups. Activity surged, but bridging between L2s remained clunky and inefficient. Users chasing airdrops and incentives moved from chain to chain, which deepened the fragmentation.

Value in rollups peaks at over $50 billion in December 2024. Source: L2Beat

Ethereum managed to scale transaction throughput, but this came at the cost of unified liquidity, increased arbitrage complexity and reduced composability across the broader DeFi landscape.

At the same time, institutional interest in Ethereum began to rise again, driven by the approval and launch of Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US.

2025: Ethereum regroups at the base layer

After years of offloading activity to L2s, the Ethereum Foundation called for a strategic shift back to the base layer. 

At the same time, Ethereum’s appeal to institutions continued to surge. Spot ETH ETFs gained traction in the US. By midyear, ETH ETF inflows had outpaced Bitcoin ETFs. ETF issuers began exploring staking the underlying ETH.

Ethereum ETFs enjoy a streak of net inflows in July. 

Meanwhile, public companies began to follow Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) Bitcoin playbook with Ether. 

Ether fell to as low as under $1,500 in April 2025, as the Ethereum Foundation battled leadership shuffles. The renewed institutional interest has raised Ether back to around $3,800 at the time of writing. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 13:20

The World's Most Dysfunctional Body? Cory Booker Captures The Decline Of The US Senate

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

When President James Buchanan declared that the United States Senate is the “world’s greatest deliberative body,” he clearly had not envisioned Sen. Cory Booker (D., N.J.).

In yet another tirade on the floor, Sen. Booker attacked not just President Donald Trump but his Democratic colleagues for voting for a bipartisan bill on law enforcement.

Behind the “I am Spartacus” theatrics is a more troubling trend in the United States Senate as it devolves into a more populist, impulsive institution.

In 1872, Moncure Daniel Conway published an account of a meeting between Thomas Jefferson and George Washington. Jefferson questioned Washington’s support for the creation of a second or upper house in the form of the Senate. Washington asked:

“Why…did you just now pour that coffee into your saucer, before drinking?”

“To cool it,” answered Jefferson, “my throat is not made of brass.”

“Even so,” rejoined Washington, “we pour our legislation into the senatorial saucer to cool it.”

These days, it seems like legislation goes to the Senate to heat up.

The Senate is losing its constitutional and cultural moorings as the cooling saucer for our heated politics.

Instead, it is becoming more like . . . well . . . the house.

The role of the Senate is key to the Madisonian design in forcing compromise and deliberation. Senators were given longer, six-year terms to insulate them from the immediate political demands that often motivate the House.

That has changed with the 24-hour media-saturated political environment. It has changed in this age of rage.

Cue Corey Booker:

Putting the claims of “secret police” aside, and, once again, the imminent collapse of democracy, Booker was immediately set upon by his colleagues after he moved to block the bipartisan bill by fellow Democratic Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.) and Amy Klobuchar (Minn.).

Klobuchar effectively accused Booker of grandstanding and hypocrisy:

“I will note that Sen. Booker objected to my police reauthorization bill, the cops funding, the Clinton cops funding, long before Donald Trump came into office. So this is not just about this. This is a long dispute over this type of funding.”

She also snapped back at Booker saying that he could not make a key hearing on the drafting of the bill because of a conflict, noting “I can’t help it if someone couldn’t change their schedule to be there.”

Cortez Masto struck back at the notion that Democrats should simply refuse to cooperate with the Administration or that working with Republicans is what Booker calls “complicity.”

Booker is clearly maneuvering for a possible presidential run and seeking to tap into the rage growing on the far left. He is also the inevitable result of the rising rhetoric of figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in pandering to the far left of his party. Democratic senators are now being denounced as “establishment” as Booker and others tack to the left to lead “the resistance.”

Booker just raised the anger ante for Democrats. They must either join the resistance and the rage or face the ire of their party. In the interim, the constitutional system will suffer. We need the House of Representatives as the “people’s house.” We do not need two Houses of Representatives. The Senate ideally moderates, not magnifies, the pressures and passions in the political system.

Booker’s tirades clearly resonates with some on the far left, but it is likely to come at a cost for the institution itself. As tensions build on the Democratic side, Teddy Roosevelt’s quip seems to be coming true in voting for bipartisan legisation: “When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer ‘Present’ or ‘Not guilty.””

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 11:20

Nuclear Energy Renaissance? Mark Nelson And Doomberg Face Off LIVE NOW: 

Presenting the Nuclear Energy debate: Marc Nelson vs Doomberg
Watch live at 7pm ET https://t.co/loNIjQNlUc

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 31, 2025

This debate is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF here: https://www.vaneck.com/NLRZH/

*********

Governments worldwide are racing to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 — but is that even close to enough?

Tonight at 7 pm ET, ZeroHedge Debates and MacroVoices host Erik Townsend bring you the first in a new energy-focused series: What’s the true potential of nuclear power — and how should we harness it?

Meet the Panelists:

Mark Nelson
Founder of Radiant Energy Group and a leading voice in the pro-nuclear movement, Mark advises developers, utilities, and policymakers. He argues that only advanced nuclear — including Gen IV reactors and SMRs — can deliver the scale and reliability needed for a real energy transition.

Gwyneth Paltrow is now promoting nuclear energy.

Nuclear energy is the natural solution to our energy and environmental issues.

Nothing stops this cultural train. It's time to build. https://t.co/nvmQdnBXKY

— Mark Nelson (@energybants) July 28, 2025

Doomberg
The anonymous green chicken behind one of the most-followed Substack blogs in the energy space, Doomberg brings a sharp investor’s eye to every energy claim. Expect tough questions, skeptical takes on government timelines, and an emphasis on market realities.

Topics on the Table:

• Is tripling nuclear capacity enough — or just a fantasy?
   
• What exactly are Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and why are they so different?
   
• Can we skip fission and bet everything on fusion?
   
• Why can’t anyone from the renewables side step up to challenge nuclear head-on?

When & Where:

Date: Tonight
Time: 7 pm ET
Where: Live on the ZeroHedge homepage, X, YouTube, and Rumble

"This debate is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF here: https://www.vaneck.com/NLRZH/“

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 11:00

"Oh Canada!" Trump Threatens To Blow Up Trade Talks As Carney To Recognize Palestinian State

Another G7 member is set to add its name to a growing list of nations planning to recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations summit in September, following France pledging to do so, and after the UK only this week said it very likely will.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada plans to issue this recognition in a Thursday statement, setting up a clash with Israel and Washington. Canada has "long been committed to a two-state solution" involving an independent Palestinian state "living side by side with the State of Israel in peace and security."

via The Canadian Press 

"Canada intends to recognize the state of Palestine at the 80th General Assembly of the United Nations," Carney told a press briefing, alongside Foreign Minister Anita Anand. "We intend to do so because the Palestinian Authority has committed to lead much needed reform."

France has positively encouraged the move, with a fresh statement the Elysee Palace highlighting that President Emmanuel Macron had directly engaged on the issue with Carney and looks forward to "working together".

"We will continue our efforts to encourage others to join this momentum in the run-up to the General Assembly in September," the Elysee added.

While some Europeans are hailing Canada's move, this has already provoked a swift and threatening reaction from President Trump.

"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh’ Canada!!!" he wrote on Truth Social.

The threat to blow up trade talks due to Palestinian recognition comes as the US is dangling a 35% tariff hike over Canada if a mutual agreement cannot be reached by August 1 - literally tomorrow.

Over in Europe, plenty of small nations have already recognized Palestine as a state, but heavyweight G7 powers like France, Canada and the UK doing so takes things to another level, and Israel's government would see it as a full-blown diplomatic disaster.

Already, European officials have grown more skeptical of Netanyahu policies, also as The Hague-based ICC has issued a warrant charging war crimes, which in effect prevents Bibi from traveling to much of the European continent.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 09:20

Unadjusted Jobless Claims Prints At 10-Month Low, But...

The number of Americans that filed for jobless benefits for the first time last week was flat at 218k (on a seasonally adjusted basis ) but tumbled to 193k (the lowest in 10 months) on an NSA basis...

Source: Bloomberg

Kentucky and Texas saw the biggest drops in initial claims last week...

Continuing claims remains above the Maginot Line of 1.9 million Americans...

Source: Bloomberg

However, worse could be to come as plans to reduce staff spiked in July to a level that was well above the average for the month since the pandemic, with technology firms leading sectors trimming their workforce, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“We are seeing the Federal budget cuts implemented by DOGE impact non-profits and healthcare in addition to the government. AI was cited for over 10,000 cuts last month, and tariff concerns have impacted nearly 6,000 jobs this year,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

US-based companies announced 62,075 job cuts this month, compared with almost 25,900 a year earlier. The 2025 number is the second-highest for a July in the past decade, only trailing 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 crisis.

In July, Government entities announced 3,666 job cuts, slightly down from the 3,801 cuts announced in June. So far in 2025, this sector has announced 292,294 job cuts, the highest in any sector, primarily due to reductions at the Federal level. Some of these cuts remain in legal limbo, though courts have allowed many to go through.

Technology is the leading private sector in job cuts, with 89,251 in 2025, a 36% increase from the 65,863 cuts tracked through July 2024. The industry is being reshaped by the advancement of artificial intelligence and ongoing uncertainty surrounding work visas, which have contributed to workforce reductions.

“DOGE Impact” remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 289,679 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors. An additional 13,056 cuts have been attributed to DOGE Downstream Impact, such as the loss of funding to private non-profits and affiliated organizations.

This is very evident in the continuing jobless claims data from the 'Deep TriState' which is at it highest since Dec 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

Technology hiring continues to decline, with companies in the sector announcing just 5,510 new jobs in 2025, down 58% from 13,263 in the same period last year.

Is the AI productivity boom starting to accelerate (at the cost of actual human employment?)

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 08:54

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Ticks Higher In June

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pulled it up 2.8% YoY (hotter than the +2.7% YoY expected) - the hottest since February...

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly the hyped-up inflationary surge the tariff fearmongers had been pushing.

Services inflation is accelerating as are Durable Goods costs on a MoM basis...

Source: Bloomberg

Deeper under the hood, household supplies seems to be getting hit with tariff trauma...

Source: Bloomberg

Headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.6% YoY (hotter than expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

At the headline level, all the sectors (aside from non-profits) are accelerating...

Source: Bloomberg

Super Core PCE - Services Ex-Shelter - dropped to +3.18% YoY in June...

Source: Bloomberg

Healthcare costs are starting to pick up (not exactly tariff-driven)...

Source: Bloomberg

Both income and spending rose 0.3% MoM in June (after May's surprise decline in both)...

Source: Bloomberg

Wages are re-accelerating:

• June Private worker wages and salaries up 4.7% YoY, up from 4.5% in May

• June Govt worker wages and salaries up 5.5% YoY, up from 5.4% in May

On a YoY basis, Spending and Income are both up 4.7% (in nominal terms)...

Source: Bloomberg

With the savings rate unchanged at 4.5%...

Source: Bloomberg

Is there enough here to nudge The Fed towards a cut? Or do we keep waiting for the 'lagged' effect of tariffs to finally show up in prices?

This is the 'transitory' no inflationary impact period!

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/31/2025 - 08:45