Zero Hedge

CDC Advisory Committee Launches Review Of COVID-19 Vaccines

CDC Advisory Committee Launches Review Of COVID-19 Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A committee that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is going to review various aspects of COVID-19 vaccines, including concerns about the persistence of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA), according to a new document.

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) work group on COVID-19 vaccines will review data on the shots related to their safety, effectiveness, and immunogenicity, according to the Aug. 20 document, which was released by the CDC.

Members also plan to look at gaps in existing knowledge “relating to bio distribution, pharmacokinetics, and persistence of the spike protein, mRNA, and lipid nanoparticles to inform immunization recommendations,” the document states.

Studies have found that the spike protein and mRNA in the vaccines persist for some time. Lipid nanoparticles are used to deliver the mRNA.

Other areas of focus for the group include potential impurities such as contamination by DNA, the impact of repeated booster doses on immune systems, how both COVID-19 vaccines and COVID-19 have affected all-cause deaths and hospitalizations, and serious adverse events potentially caused by the vaccines.

After reviewing the data and consulting with experts at the CDC, the Food and Drug Administration, and outside the government, the group plans on issuing new recommendations regarding the shots.

Retsef Levi, a professor of operations management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has been named chair of the work group.

“My goal as the WG [work group] chair is to work with my colleagues at ACIP, the CDC and FDA experts and the external experts to openly study the range of issues and questions outlined in the Terms of Reference, to inform the best science and evidence-based policy recommendations, and having the health and safety of patients front in mind,” Levi told The Epoch Times in an email.

Levi has previously called for halting the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines, citing concerns with safety and effectiveness.

Pfizer and Moderna have not responded to requests for comment.

The CDC says on its website that the COVID-19 vaccination “helps protect you from severe illness, hospitalization, and death.” It has acknowledged some side effects, including heart inflammation.

Under orders from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the CDC earlier this year stopped recommending COVID-19 vaccination for healthy children and pregnant women.

Kennedy subsequently removed all members of ACIP and appointed Levi and others to replace them.

The CDC had for years recommended that all people aged 6 months and older receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

The previous advisory panel had been considering recommending the CDC shift to a non-universal recommendation.

ACIP member Dr. Robert Malone, who is serving on the COVID-19 vaccine work group, said on his blog that establishing topics for the group to review was a sign of progress.

“I am sorry it is so slow (and frustrating for all concerned), but we now have the authorization to look deeply into the big questions,” he wrote.

“Hopefully, we will have some answers by the upcoming ACIP general meeting.”

The next ACIP meeting is slated to take place in August or September, according to the committee’s website. Another meeting is due to take place on Oct. 22 and Oct. 23.

ACIP member Dr. James Pagano will also serve on the working group.

Other members of the group have not been disclosed, and Levi declined to name them.

The document says the group “is composed of experts who are appointed based on their professional, scientific, technical, or other expertise.”

CDC employees will no longer be able to serve as members, according to the document, although they can still present to the panel, which meets behind closed doors.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 14:20

Trump Signs Order Targeting American-Flag-Burning, Desecration

Trump Signs Order Targeting American-Flag-Burning, Desecration

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Aug. 25 that directs the attorney general to prosecute those caught burning the American flag or desecrating it in other ways.

"If you burn a flag, you get one year in jail," Trump said.

"You will see flag burning stop immediately."

“The people in our country don’t want to see our flag burned and spit on.”

As Travis Gillmore reports for The Epoch Times, the order directs Attorney General Pam Bondi to send appropriate cases to state and local authorities and to pursue charges in line with the First Amendment.

"We will do that without running afoul of the First Amendment," Bondi said.

Burning U.S. flags as a form of political protest was popularized during the Vietnam War, leading to the Flag Protection Act of 1968, which outlawed burning, defacing, defiling, mutilating, or trampling the flag.

A Supreme Court ruling in 1989, Texas v. Johnson, overturned the law and declared the act of flag desecration protected as symbolic speech under the First Amendment.

“It was a very sad court, a 5–4 decision,” Trump said.

In that case, a Texas court convicted Gregory Lee Johnson of burning an American flag outside the 1984 Republican National Convention in Dallas after marching with protesters.

“The government generally has a freer hand in restricting expressive conduct than it has in restricting the written or spoken word,” Justice William J. Brennan wrote in the court‘s opinion.

“It may not, however, proscribe particular conduct because it has expressive elements.”

The president said the issue goes beyond speech, as it can lead to violence.

“When you burn the American flag, it incites riots,” Trump said.

We give Matt Taibbi the final word on this decision by The White House...

We cannot have First Amendment rights for me, but not for thee under Trump... we had that for four years under Biden!

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 14:00

Trump Signs Order Targeting American-Flag-Burning, Desecration

Trump Signs Order Targeting American-Flag-Burning, Desecration

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Aug. 25 that directs the attorney general to prosecute those caught burning the American flag or desecrating it in other ways.

"If you burn a flag, you get one year in jail," Trump said.

"You will see flag burning stop immediately."

“The people in our country don’t want to see our flag burned and spit on.”

As Travis Gillmore reports for The Epoch Times, the order directs Attorney General Pam Bondi to send appropriate cases to state and local authorities and to pursue charges in line with the First Amendment.

"We will do that without running afoul of the First Amendment," Bondi said.

Burning U.S. flags as a form of political protest was popularized during the Vietnam War, leading to the Flag Protection Act of 1968, which outlawed burning, defacing, defiling, mutilating, or trampling the flag.

A Supreme Court ruling in 1989, Texas v. Johnson, overturned the law and declared the act of flag desecration protected as symbolic speech under the First Amendment.

“It was a very sad court, a 5–4 decision,” Trump said.

In that case, a Texas court convicted Gregory Lee Johnson of burning an American flag outside the 1984 Republican National Convention in Dallas after marching with protesters.

“The government generally has a freer hand in restricting expressive conduct than it has in restricting the written or spoken word,” Justice William J. Brennan wrote in the court‘s opinion.

“It may not, however, proscribe particular conduct because it has expressive elements.”

The president said the issue goes beyond speech, as it can lead to violence.

“When you burn the American flag, it incites riots,” Trump said.

We give Matt Taibbi the final word on this decision by The White House...

We cannot have First Amendment rights for me, but not for thee under Trump... we had that for four years under Biden!

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 14:00

'Buy Every Dip' Remains The Winning Strategy... For Now

'Buy Every Dip' Remains The Winning Strategy... For Now

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“Buy Every Dip” has lately been the “Siren’s Song” for this market. Such is seen in the flows into ETFs over the course of this year. Retail investors treat pullbacks as temporary noise, and their behavior borders on mechanical. Every sell-off is seen as an opportunity, not a warning. Meanwhile, institutional managers sit it out. They raise cash, hedge risk, and wait for confirmation.

The difference between these two groups has never been more obvious. Retail enthusiasm is driven by momentum and reinforced by platforms like Reddit and TikTok. But it’s more than emotion. There’s structure behind it. Passive indexing distorts the market. The rise of ETFs, driven by automatic inflows, has created a built-in safety net. Prices fall, flows continue. That cushions the blow and speeds up recovery. Retail investors see this and assume every dip will bounce.

However, it’s a dangerous assumption.

While passive flows now dominate the tape, investors are not making decisions. Michael Green noted that “the market has become a giant mindless robot” in describing the enormous, passive capital flows that automatically push stock prices higher. This metaphor refers to the mechanical, non-discretionary purchasing by index funds and other passive investment vehicles that dominate today’s market. The problem is that these flows are “valuation insensitive.” We made such a point in Jesse Livermore’s Approach to Speculation.” To wit:

“Passive funds track indexes weighted by market capitalization. As stock prices rise, these funds buy more of the same names, regardless of valuation or fundamentals. This mechanical process has inflated the market value of the largest companies. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for more than 38% of the index. That level of passive index concentration has not been seen since the peak of the dot-com bubble. While such concentration may be worrisome, as it elicits memories of the “Dot.com crash,” in the short term, this handful of companies’ performance determines the entire market’s direction.”

This passive concentration also fuels the “buy every dip” retail trading mentality. As retail investors see the market rise, the urge to “get rich quickly” initially sucks money into passive index ETFs. Those inflows push markets higher, particularly the mega-cap leaders, which provides the illusion that the trend is unbreakable. Retail traders, emboldened by these moves, began to increase their risk profile to enhance returns by piling into options and short-term trades. The feedback loop between passive buying and retail speculation accelerates price moves and disconnects valuations from economic reality.

“While the short-term effect is a resilient-looking market, the feedback loop increases market fragility as volatility declines.”

“Buy Every Dip” Has A Long History

This buy-the-dip mentality isn’t new. We’ve seen it before. In 1999, retail investors poured into tech stocks every time they fell 5% or more. It worked, until it didn’t. When the dot-com bubble finally burst, those who chased dips were left holding massive losses. We saw it again in 2008. Warren Buffett famously told investors to “Buy America.” He was right, eventually. However, those who bought too early were down 30% or more before the market bottomed in March 2009. Buying dips only works when the market is structurally sound. When it isn’t, those dips can quickly turn into cliffs.

Retail investors tend to forget this. They view every correction as a short-term opportunity and ignore valuation and macro risks to chase momentum. We see this in the valuation differentials between small versus large cap, value versus growth, and international versus domestic.

As you will notice, the valuation gap began to open up following the “Financial Crisis,“ when every market downturn, or potential crisis, was met with zero interest rates and increases in monetary interventions.

Those repeated interventions created “moral hazard” for retail investors.

What exactly is the definition of “moral hazard.” 

Noun – ECONOMICS

The lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences, e.g., by insurance.

The chart above explains why retail investors currently “buy every dip” in the most risky assets and on leverage.

Why? Because there is no incentive to guard against risk, investors believe the Fed is protecting them from its consequences.

In other words, the Fed has “insured them” against potential losses. They assume the Federal Reserve will always step in and on passive flows to catch them if they fall. But the problem is that passive investing only works when money flows in. If that reverses, the safety net vanishes.

We saw this in 2020. When the COVID crash hit, ETFs traded at steep discounts to their NAVs. The price discovery mechanism broke. It only recovered because the Fed stepped in with massive liquidity. Those interventions saved the passive structure. However, passive indexing also weakens market efficiency. A paper from Research Affiliates shows that as passive funds grow, correlations between unrelated stocks rise.

Price discovery weakens, and liquidity dries up during stress. This means the market becomes more fragile, not less. That fragility is masked during bull markets, but it becomes clear when liquidity fades.

The irony is that retail investors now dominate flows. That gives them power. They’re not wrong that “buying every dip” has worked. But the reason it’s worked is because of conditions that won’t necessarily last. Passive flows won’t always rise. The Fed won’t always support markets. Markets will not always ignore valuations.

But what happens next time if the Fed can’t, or won’t, intervene?

Navigating Whatever Happens Next

So what could change this dynamic? Several things. First, a liquidity event could force passive funds to sell, which would flip the script fast. Second, a macro shock, credit-related, geopolitical, or economic event could dry up inflows. Third, earnings disappointments or guidance cuts could undermine confidence in megacap stocks that drive index performance. Fourth, a sharp rate spike or inflation surprise could reduce margin use and force deleveraging.

So far, none of those things has happened. Still, historically, when multiple valuation measures are all pushing more extreme levels, along with sharp increases in leverage, the catalyst size needed for a mean-reverting event becomes much less.

“Valuation is the capstone of proximate causes for a market top, and the one most indicative of the potential magnitude of any subsequent selloff. It’s well known that valuations are high for the US market, but I thought I’d update my aggregate indicator, which combines the main measures of long-term stock-market worth. It previously peaked in April, but has just made a new all-time high this month. Not a welcome sign if you’re a long-term bull.” – Simon White, Bloomberg

If any of these happen, it will expose retail investors. And that’s the risk. While “buying every dip” is easy today, the assumption is that the current structure remains intact. But if the structure breaks, you are the first to get hurt.

So, what should investors do now? Stay involved, but hedge. Maintain exposure, but reduce risk. Here are a few strategies that work:

  1. Keep cash reserves. Cash isn’t trash when volatility rises. It gives you options.

  2. Focus on high-quality names. Companies with strong balance sheets, positive cash flow, and stable dividends are better.

  3. Use tactical hedges. Inverse ETFs or puts can offset downside risk.

  4. Avoid high leverage. If you’re using margin to chase performance, stop.

  5. Diversify your approach. Mix passive exposure with active management, value strategies, or alternatives.

  6. Be willing to sell. If valuations are stretched, take profits. Cash is a position.

Markets work in cycles. What works during one phase often fails in the next. “Buying every dip” has worked for 15 years, but that was in a world of zero rates, Fed support, and steady passive flows.

If that world changes for any reason and you’re not prepared for it, you’ll be part of the next drawdown, not the recovery.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 13:40

'Buy Every Dip' Remains The Winning Strategy... For Now

'Buy Every Dip' Remains The Winning Strategy... For Now

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“Buy Every Dip” has lately been the “Siren’s Song” for this market. Such is seen in the flows into ETFs over the course of this year. Retail investors treat pullbacks as temporary noise, and their behavior borders on mechanical. Every sell-off is seen as an opportunity, not a warning. Meanwhile, institutional managers sit it out. They raise cash, hedge risk, and wait for confirmation.

The difference between these two groups has never been more obvious. Retail enthusiasm is driven by momentum and reinforced by platforms like Reddit and TikTok. But it’s more than emotion. There’s structure behind it. Passive indexing distorts the market. The rise of ETFs, driven by automatic inflows, has created a built-in safety net. Prices fall, flows continue. That cushions the blow and speeds up recovery. Retail investors see this and assume every dip will bounce.

However, it’s a dangerous assumption.

While passive flows now dominate the tape, investors are not making decisions. Michael Green noted that “the market has become a giant mindless robot” in describing the enormous, passive capital flows that automatically push stock prices higher. This metaphor refers to the mechanical, non-discretionary purchasing by index funds and other passive investment vehicles that dominate today’s market. The problem is that these flows are “valuation insensitive.” We made such a point in Jesse Livermore’s Approach to Speculation.” To wit:

“Passive funds track indexes weighted by market capitalization. As stock prices rise, these funds buy more of the same names, regardless of valuation or fundamentals. This mechanical process has inflated the market value of the largest companies. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for more than 38% of the index. That level of passive index concentration has not been seen since the peak of the dot-com bubble. While such concentration may be worrisome, as it elicits memories of the “Dot.com crash,” in the short term, this handful of companies’ performance determines the entire market’s direction.”

This passive concentration also fuels the “buy every dip” retail trading mentality. As retail investors see the market rise, the urge to “get rich quickly” initially sucks money into passive index ETFs. Those inflows push markets higher, particularly the mega-cap leaders, which provides the illusion that the trend is unbreakable. Retail traders, emboldened by these moves, began to increase their risk profile to enhance returns by piling into options and short-term trades. The feedback loop between passive buying and retail speculation accelerates price moves and disconnects valuations from economic reality.

“While the short-term effect is a resilient-looking market, the feedback loop increases market fragility as volatility declines.”

“Buy Every Dip” Has A Long History

This buy-the-dip mentality isn’t new. We’ve seen it before. In 1999, retail investors poured into tech stocks every time they fell 5% or more. It worked, until it didn’t. When the dot-com bubble finally burst, those who chased dips were left holding massive losses. We saw it again in 2008. Warren Buffett famously told investors to “Buy America.” He was right, eventually. However, those who bought too early were down 30% or more before the market bottomed in March 2009. Buying dips only works when the market is structurally sound. When it isn’t, those dips can quickly turn into cliffs.

Retail investors tend to forget this. They view every correction as a short-term opportunity and ignore valuation and macro risks to chase momentum. We see this in the valuation differentials between small versus large cap, value versus growth, and international versus domestic.

As you will notice, the valuation gap began to open up following the “Financial Crisis,“ when every market downturn, or potential crisis, was met with zero interest rates and increases in monetary interventions.

Those repeated interventions created “moral hazard” for retail investors.

What exactly is the definition of “moral hazard.” 

Noun – ECONOMICS

The lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences, e.g., by insurance.

The chart above explains why retail investors currently “buy every dip” in the most risky assets and on leverage.

Why? Because there is no incentive to guard against risk, investors believe the Fed is protecting them from its consequences.

In other words, the Fed has “insured them” against potential losses. They assume the Federal Reserve will always step in and on passive flows to catch them if they fall. But the problem is that passive investing only works when money flows in. If that reverses, the safety net vanishes.

We saw this in 2020. When the COVID crash hit, ETFs traded at steep discounts to their NAVs. The price discovery mechanism broke. It only recovered because the Fed stepped in with massive liquidity. Those interventions saved the passive structure. However, passive indexing also weakens market efficiency. A paper from Research Affiliates shows that as passive funds grow, correlations between unrelated stocks rise.

Price discovery weakens, and liquidity dries up during stress. This means the market becomes more fragile, not less. That fragility is masked during bull markets, but it becomes clear when liquidity fades.

The irony is that retail investors now dominate flows. That gives them power. They’re not wrong that “buying every dip” has worked. But the reason it’s worked is because of conditions that won’t necessarily last. Passive flows won’t always rise. The Fed won’t always support markets. Markets will not always ignore valuations.

But what happens next time if the Fed can’t, or won’t, intervene?

Navigating Whatever Happens Next

So what could change this dynamic? Several things. First, a liquidity event could force passive funds to sell, which would flip the script fast. Second, a macro shock, credit-related, geopolitical, or economic event could dry up inflows. Third, earnings disappointments or guidance cuts could undermine confidence in megacap stocks that drive index performance. Fourth, a sharp rate spike or inflation surprise could reduce margin use and force deleveraging.

So far, none of those things has happened. Still, historically, when multiple valuation measures are all pushing more extreme levels, along with sharp increases in leverage, the catalyst size needed for a mean-reverting event becomes much less.

“Valuation is the capstone of proximate causes for a market top, and the one most indicative of the potential magnitude of any subsequent selloff. It’s well known that valuations are high for the US market, but I thought I’d update my aggregate indicator, which combines the main measures of long-term stock-market worth. It previously peaked in April, but has just made a new all-time high this month. Not a welcome sign if you’re a long-term bull.” – Simon White, Bloomberg

If any of these happen, it will expose retail investors. And that’s the risk. While “buying every dip” is easy today, the assumption is that the current structure remains intact. But if the structure breaks, you are the first to get hurt.

So, what should investors do now? Stay involved, but hedge. Maintain exposure, but reduce risk. Here are a few strategies that work:

  1. Keep cash reserves. Cash isn’t trash when volatility rises. It gives you options.

  2. Focus on high-quality names. Companies with strong balance sheets, positive cash flow, and stable dividends are better.

  3. Use tactical hedges. Inverse ETFs or puts can offset downside risk.

  4. Avoid high leverage. If you’re using margin to chase performance, stop.

  5. Diversify your approach. Mix passive exposure with active management, value strategies, or alternatives.

  6. Be willing to sell. If valuations are stretched, take profits. Cash is a position.

Markets work in cycles. What works during one phase often fails in the next. “Buying every dip” has worked for 15 years, but that was in a world of zero rates, Fed support, and steady passive flows.

If that world changes for any reason and you’re not prepared for it, you’ll be part of the next drawdown, not the recovery.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 13:40

Musk Takes On Apple, OpenAI In Antitrust Showdown Over Chatbots 

Musk Takes On Apple, OpenAI In Antitrust Showdown Over Chatbots 

Elon Musk's X and xAI have filed a federal lawsuit in Fort Worth, Texas, accusing Apple and OpenAI of "locking up markets" to preserve their monopolies and shut out rivals. This comes as Musk's long-running feud with OpenAI chief Sam Altman intensifies.

The lawsuit centers on Apple's recent deal to make OpenAI's ChatGPT the only generative AI chatbot on the iPhone's operating system, effectively shutting out xAI's Grok and other rivals, such as Google's Gemini and Anthropic. 

The lawsuit's introduction argues that Apple and OpenAI have teamed up to protect their monopolies in smartphones and AI chatbots:

This is a tale of two monopolists joining forces to ensure their continued dominance in a world rapidly driven by the most powerful technology humanity has ever created: artificial intelligence ("AI"). Working in tandem, Defendants Apple and OpenAI have locked up markets to maintain their monopolies and prevent innovators like X and xAI from competing.1 Plaintiffs bring this suit to stop Defendants from perpetrating their anticompetitive scheme and to recover billions in damages.

AI is fundamentally reshaping our world. Technology powered by AI has not only become embedded in our daily lives but is also transforming critical sectors like healthcare, education, and finance. The consensus among global business leaders, academics, and scientists is that AI adoption is both unavoidable and transformational—and businesses that do not plan for it risk falling behind.

As Apple now recognizes, AI poses an existential threat to its business. For example, AI is rapidly advancing the rise of "super apps"—i.e., multi-functional platforms that offer many of the services of smartphones, such as social connectivity and messaging, financial services, e-commerce, and entertainment—that do not require a customer to be tied to a particular device. In other words, super apps, like those being developed by X and xAI, stand ready to upend the smartphone market and Apple's entrenched monopoly in it.

The writing is on the wall. Apple's Senior Vice President for Services, Eddy Cue, has expressed worries that AI might destroy Apple's smartphone business, just as Apple's iPhone did to Nokia's handsets.

Apple knows it cannot escape the inevitable—at least not alone. In a desperate bid to protect its smartphone monopoly, Apple has joined forces with the company that most benefits from inhibiting competition and innovation in AI: OpenAI, a monopolist in the market for generative AI chatbots.

OpenAI quickly rose to dominance in the generative AI chatbot market after introducing its flagship service, ChatGPT, in 2022. Today, OpenAI controls at least 80 percent of the market. Because of OpenAI's monopoly, other generative AI chatbots have struggled to gain share. xAI's Grok has yet to gain more than a few percent of the market despite accolades about its superior features. 

Just like Apple, OpenAI has incentive to protect its monopoly by thwarting competition and innovation in the generative AI chatbot market. And just like Apple, it has done so in violation of the antitrust laws.

In June 2024, Apple and OpenAI announced that Apple would integrate OpenAI's ChatGPT into Apple's iPhone operating system ("iOS"). Apple and OpenAI's exclusive arrangement has made ChatGPT the only generative AI chatbot integrated into the iPhone. This means that if iPhone users want to use a generative AI chatbot for key tasks on their devices, they have no choice but to use ChatGPT, even if they would prefer to use more innovative and imaginative products like xAI's Grok. An OpenAI strategy document recognized the importance of competition in this emerging and transformational space: "Real choice drives competition and benefits everyone. Users should be able to pick their AI assistant." Yet Apple and OpenAI have colluded to prevent exactly that.

X and xAI argue:

If not for its exclusive deal with OpenAI, Apple would have no reason to refrain from more prominently featuring the X app and the Grok app in its App Store. 

Just a few weeks ago, Musk threatened Apple with legal action over alleged antitrust violations regarding the App Store rankings of the Grok AI chatbot. He wrote in an X post that Apple's behavior "makes it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach #1 in the App Store."

Musk is seeking an injunction to block Apple and OpenAI's exclusive chatbot deal and billions in damages. If successful, the case could reshape how AI bots are distributed on smartphones. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 13:20

Musk Takes On Apple, OpenAI In Antitrust Showdown Over Chatbots 

Musk Takes On Apple, OpenAI In Antitrust Showdown Over Chatbots 

Elon Musk's X and xAI have filed a federal lawsuit in Fort Worth, Texas, accusing Apple and OpenAI of "locking up markets" to preserve their monopolies and shut out rivals. This comes as Musk's long-running feud with OpenAI chief Sam Altman intensifies.

The lawsuit centers on Apple's recent deal to make OpenAI's ChatGPT the only generative AI chatbot on the iPhone's operating system, effectively shutting out xAI's Grok and other rivals, such as Google's Gemini and Anthropic. 

The lawsuit's introduction argues that Apple and OpenAI have teamed up to protect their monopolies in smartphones and AI chatbots:

This is a tale of two monopolists joining forces to ensure their continued dominance in a world rapidly driven by the most powerful technology humanity has ever created: artificial intelligence ("AI"). Working in tandem, Defendants Apple and OpenAI have locked up markets to maintain their monopolies and prevent innovators like X and xAI from competing.1 Plaintiffs bring this suit to stop Defendants from perpetrating their anticompetitive scheme and to recover billions in damages.

AI is fundamentally reshaping our world. Technology powered by AI has not only become embedded in our daily lives but is also transforming critical sectors like healthcare, education, and finance. The consensus among global business leaders, academics, and scientists is that AI adoption is both unavoidable and transformational—and businesses that do not plan for it risk falling behind.

As Apple now recognizes, AI poses an existential threat to its business. For example, AI is rapidly advancing the rise of "super apps"—i.e., multi-functional platforms that offer many of the services of smartphones, such as social connectivity and messaging, financial services, e-commerce, and entertainment—that do not require a customer to be tied to a particular device. In other words, super apps, like those being developed by X and xAI, stand ready to upend the smartphone market and Apple's entrenched monopoly in it.

The writing is on the wall. Apple's Senior Vice President for Services, Eddy Cue, has expressed worries that AI might destroy Apple's smartphone business, just as Apple's iPhone did to Nokia's handsets.

Apple knows it cannot escape the inevitable—at least not alone. In a desperate bid to protect its smartphone monopoly, Apple has joined forces with the company that most benefits from inhibiting competition and innovation in AI: OpenAI, a monopolist in the market for generative AI chatbots.

OpenAI quickly rose to dominance in the generative AI chatbot market after introducing its flagship service, ChatGPT, in 2022. Today, OpenAI controls at least 80 percent of the market. Because of OpenAI's monopoly, other generative AI chatbots have struggled to gain share. xAI's Grok has yet to gain more than a few percent of the market despite accolades about its superior features. 

Just like Apple, OpenAI has incentive to protect its monopoly by thwarting competition and innovation in the generative AI chatbot market. And just like Apple, it has done so in violation of the antitrust laws.

In June 2024, Apple and OpenAI announced that Apple would integrate OpenAI's ChatGPT into Apple's iPhone operating system ("iOS"). Apple and OpenAI's exclusive arrangement has made ChatGPT the only generative AI chatbot integrated into the iPhone. This means that if iPhone users want to use a generative AI chatbot for key tasks on their devices, they have no choice but to use ChatGPT, even if they would prefer to use more innovative and imaginative products like xAI's Grok. An OpenAI strategy document recognized the importance of competition in this emerging and transformational space: "Real choice drives competition and benefits everyone. Users should be able to pick their AI assistant." Yet Apple and OpenAI have colluded to prevent exactly that.

X and xAI argue:

If not for its exclusive deal with OpenAI, Apple would have no reason to refrain from more prominently featuring the X app and the Grok app in its App Store. 

Just a few weeks ago, Musk threatened Apple with legal action over alleged antitrust violations regarding the App Store rankings of the Grok AI chatbot. He wrote in an X post that Apple's behavior "makes it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach #1 in the App Store."

Musk is seeking an injunction to block Apple and OpenAI's exclusive chatbot deal and billions in damages. If successful, the case could reshape how AI bots are distributed on smartphones. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 13:20

Former Secret Service Chief Paid Himself A Bonus

Former Secret Service Chief Paid Himself A Bonus

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearInvestigations,

Former acting Secret Service Director Ron Rowe gave himself a senior leadership "performance" bonus around the holidays in December after previously serving as the second in command of the agency, leading up to the two assassination attempts against President Trump last year, according to multiple knowledgeable sources.

The agency pays nearly everyone in senior executive leadership positions bonuses – many worth thousands of dollars – at the end of the year, and that includes Rowe, the sources said.

Because Rowe was the acting director at the time, he moved forward with giving himself a bonus and then continued to remain on the payroll listed as a "senior advisor" for nearly half of this year – months after Trump tapped Sean Curran as the new director. Rowe could do so by using up all accumulated sick and leave time, sources tell RCP. Rowe has since announced that he had joined the Chertoff Group, the national security consulting firm run by former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.

Former Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, who resigned in disgrace after Trump was nearly killed at the Butler rally and rallygoer Corey Comperatore was murdered, did not receive a bonus last year because she was no longer employed by the agency at the end of the year, these sources confirmed.

Meanwhile, the first quarterly installment of promised retention bonuses for agents who agreed not to jump ship to another government law enforcement job or retire in the aftermath of the morale-sinking assassination attempts has been delayed for weeks. On Wednesday, USSS leaders once again reassured agents in an email that their promised retention bonuses are coming and would be paid by the end of August.

The information is helping ease some anxiety for agents miffed by multiple retention check delays – an important morale booster as the Secret Service prepares for President Trump's ride-along tonight with D.C. law enforcement and National Guard troops. Trump wants to see for himself their efforts to crack down on crime in the nation's capital, but such a hands-on D.C. night tour will pose a complex challenge for the Secret Service, which is charged with the unusual task of protecting a president while accompanying law enforcement officers on patrol.

USSS leadership sent an email to all agents Wednesday after RealClearPolitics once again inquired about the ongoing delays with the first quarterly installment of their retention bonuses. When the funds are fully disbursed over the next year, the retention incentives will amount to tens of thousands of dollars per employee who agreed to stay on the job and not to leave the agency. 

The new email updated the agents to let them know that all Uniformed Division officers who deserved the retention bonuses had received them, while the agency was paying other agents in alphabetical order – and had disbursed the funds to agents with last names starting with the letter "A" through "F" so far, a source familiar with the matter told RCP.

 Once again, Curran promised that the agency would complete all the retention-bonus payments by the end of the month.

The nearly month-long delay in receiving the retention bonus was caused by a data-processing glitch, sources said, and exacerbated by DOGE personnel cuts and buyouts to the department in charge of doling out the bonuses.

For many in the Service, the first installment of the bonus will amount to 15% of their annual salaries and tens of thousands of dollars once fully received. These agents agreed to sign the bonus offer earlier this year as a way to stem the tide of agents retiring or departing to other agencies, such as the Drug Enforcement Agency or the Homeland Security Department.

Congress provided an extra $231 million to the Secret Service after the assassination attempts last year to help the agency deal with budget shortfalls and severe manpower issues.

The delays in receiving the retention bonuses, coupled with ongoing heavy workloads (European leaders were in town earlier this week, and the agency is preparing for the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York next month), have spurred additional resentment among some rank-and-file, captured by a series of memes circulating among agents and UD officers.

After senior leaders received their bonuses last year, some believe there's been a lack of urgency to deliver the rank-and-file agents their retention bonuses.

"If bosses pay or schedules are affected, things start changing -- and that's about the only way things change," one insider remarked.

RealClearPolitics first inquired about the missing bonuses on Aug. 5. At the time, an agency spokesman stressed that recruitment and retention are top priorities for Curran and that bonuses would begin to be paid out starting Aug. 11.

“We understand the impact this delay had on our employees and are committed to ensuring it is resolved as quickly as possible,” a spokesman said at the time.

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 13:00

Former Secret Service Chief Paid Himself A Bonus

Former Secret Service Chief Paid Himself A Bonus

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearInvestigations,

Former acting Secret Service Director Ron Rowe gave himself a senior leadership "performance" bonus around the holidays in December after previously serving as the second in command of the agency, leading up to the two assassination attempts against President Trump last year, according to multiple knowledgeable sources.

The agency pays nearly everyone in senior executive leadership positions bonuses – many worth thousands of dollars – at the end of the year, and that includes Rowe, the sources said.

Because Rowe was the acting director at the time, he moved forward with giving himself a bonus and then continued to remain on the payroll listed as a "senior advisor" for nearly half of this year – months after Trump tapped Sean Curran as the new director. Rowe could do so by using up all accumulated sick and leave time, sources tell RCP. Rowe has since announced that he had joined the Chertoff Group, the national security consulting firm run by former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.

Former Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, who resigned in disgrace after Trump was nearly killed at the Butler rally and rallygoer Corey Comperatore was murdered, did not receive a bonus last year because she was no longer employed by the agency at the end of the year, these sources confirmed.

Meanwhile, the first quarterly installment of promised retention bonuses for agents who agreed not to jump ship to another government law enforcement job or retire in the aftermath of the morale-sinking assassination attempts has been delayed for weeks. On Wednesday, USSS leaders once again reassured agents in an email that their promised retention bonuses are coming and would be paid by the end of August.

The information is helping ease some anxiety for agents miffed by multiple retention check delays – an important morale booster as the Secret Service prepares for President Trump's ride-along tonight with D.C. law enforcement and National Guard troops. Trump wants to see for himself their efforts to crack down on crime in the nation's capital, but such a hands-on D.C. night tour will pose a complex challenge for the Secret Service, which is charged with the unusual task of protecting a president while accompanying law enforcement officers on patrol.

USSS leadership sent an email to all agents Wednesday after RealClearPolitics once again inquired about the ongoing delays with the first quarterly installment of their retention bonuses. When the funds are fully disbursed over the next year, the retention incentives will amount to tens of thousands of dollars per employee who agreed to stay on the job and not to leave the agency. 

The new email updated the agents to let them know that all Uniformed Division officers who deserved the retention bonuses had received them, while the agency was paying other agents in alphabetical order – and had disbursed the funds to agents with last names starting with the letter "A" through "F" so far, a source familiar with the matter told RCP.

 Once again, Curran promised that the agency would complete all the retention-bonus payments by the end of the month.

The nearly month-long delay in receiving the retention bonus was caused by a data-processing glitch, sources said, and exacerbated by DOGE personnel cuts and buyouts to the department in charge of doling out the bonuses.

For many in the Service, the first installment of the bonus will amount to 15% of their annual salaries and tens of thousands of dollars once fully received. These agents agreed to sign the bonus offer earlier this year as a way to stem the tide of agents retiring or departing to other agencies, such as the Drug Enforcement Agency or the Homeland Security Department.

Congress provided an extra $231 million to the Secret Service after the assassination attempts last year to help the agency deal with budget shortfalls and severe manpower issues.

The delays in receiving the retention bonuses, coupled with ongoing heavy workloads (European leaders were in town earlier this week, and the agency is preparing for the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York next month), have spurred additional resentment among some rank-and-file, captured by a series of memes circulating among agents and UD officers.

After senior leaders received their bonuses last year, some believe there's been a lack of urgency to deliver the rank-and-file agents their retention bonuses.

"If bosses pay or schedules are affected, things start changing -- and that's about the only way things change," one insider remarked.

RealClearPolitics first inquired about the missing bonuses on Aug. 5. At the time, an agency spokesman stressed that recruitment and retention are top priorities for Curran and that bonuses would begin to be paid out starting Aug. 11.

“We understand the impact this delay had on our employees and are committed to ensuring it is resolved as quickly as possible,” a spokesman said at the time.

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 13:00

MAGA Jay And Silent Blob

MAGA Jay And Silent Blob

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Jerome Powell used his set-piece speech at Jackson Hole on Friday to execute a dovish pivot. The S&P500 closed within 2pts of an all-time high and 10-year Treasury yields fell 7bps after the Fed Chair said that recent weakening in the labor market that was highlighted by sluggish employment growth in the most recent non-farm payrolls report – including big downward revisions to jobs growth in April and May – meant that the balance of risks had shifted and that some reduction in the restrictiveness of monetary policy may now be appropriate.

That admission must have stuck in the craw for a Fed Chairman who has pushed back against the White House’s at times puerile lobbying for cheaper money. The risk now is that ‘Too Slow’ Jerome Powell – as he has been dubbed by Trump – is suddenly transformed into ‘MAGA Jay’ in the eyes of the commentariat as he bows to pressure to cut rates and perhaps raises questions in some quarters over whether he might have one eye on safeguarding his own seat on the FOMC.

To add insult to injury, Powell also admitted that the risks to inflation are to the upside while the risks to employment are to the downside. To any economics-trained ear, that sounds like stagflation – a scenario that Powell expressly said he couldn’t envision last year.

The President has been busy subverting his Fed Chair by appointing loyalist and Mar-a-Lago Accord author Stephen Miran to fill Adriana Kugler’s (a Biden appointee) seat on the Board of Governors, and also by threatening to anoint a Fed Chair-in-waiting to second-guess Powell’s every utterance before his contract expires in May next year. Recent attacks on Biden-appointed Lisa Cook over allegations of shonky mortgage applications further highlights how the Fed is now treated similarly to the Supreme Court in terms of the administration seeking to stack it with ideological fellow travellers and dispensing with the fiction of central organs of government being political silent blobs. This trend will doubtless cut both ways as California Governor Newsom’s recent behavior regarding Congressional redistricting in Texas amply illustrates.

The unabashed politicization of the supposedly independent and technocratic process of setting the price of money once again confirms that it is no longer the 1990s and that old ideas about optimal policy transmission, central bank credibility and the need to insulate important decisions from the influence of the popular will offers little protection against the new paradigm of raw power politics. Just as the interpretation of law is inherently political, the price of money is inherently political, and all aspects of national policy are being co-opted to support the MAGA vision of the United States and its place in the world.

The political nature of the price of money is, of course, a feature of other economies, too. Down Under in Australia the RBA has recently cut rates for the third time – sparking another wave of FOMO buying in the country’s already poisonously expensive housing market. Tellingly, UBS’s latest Global Wealth Report places Australia second behind only tax haven microstate Luxembourg in terms of the median household wealth. By far the largest driver of Australia’s household wealth is real estate, accounting for 53% of the total compared to just 30% in the United States. The relative proportions of Australia’s wealth composition vs others certainly raises questions about how much of that household wealth is illusory and liable to disappear when the housing market eventually reverts to fair value (as it always does).

Seemingly content to sacrifice their young to the Moloch of housing market speculation, the Australian government is continuing to do its best to ensure that fair value is never achieved and has this morning announced that they are ‘helping’ by bringing forward a scheme for the government to credit wrap first homebuyers with deposits as small as 5%. To put that another way, the taxpayer will be providing credit guarantees for buyers who are just 5% away from negative equity in a generationally expensive market.

Concurrently, the ABC reports that thousands of houses purpose-built for the disabled on city fringes (where services for people with disabilities are thin on the ground) through the promise of turbocharged returns underwritten by a massive government honeypot for the investors who stumped up the capital are sitting empty – because not enough people with disabilities want to live there. Totally not 2008 vibes at all.

This sort of silliness is common in Australia where there is apparently no problem that a big dose of financialization can’t ‘fix’ by creating new and bigger problems (just look at Australia’s energy market – once a source of competitive advantage, but no longer). Such thinking was again on display through a three day productivity summit last week where the usual neoliberal tropes of “it’s a supply issue” and cutting red tape were again rolled out and there was further inching towards financial repression as all agreed that it should be easier for private pension savings to be redirected into government priority areas. Australia’s government also committed to another round of cuts to “nuisance” tariffs right at the time where the rest of the developed world is realising that – with the benefit of hindsight – such moves in the 1980s might have been a bad idea and the ability to make stuff in your own country is actually a very useful thing sometimes.

Contrast that thinking to what is happening in the USA, where Intel has apparently just agreed to allow the US government to take a 10% stake in the company to ensure that strategically important semiconductor manufacturing occurs inside the United States and is treated as a national security priority. Thinking from first principles, economics is the study of scarcity and it is the job of national governments to arrange the scarce factors of production (land, labor and capital) to best ensure the prosperity and security of their people.

Very clearly we are seeing two very different approaches to this problem of scarcity emerging. Is the wealth of nations best employed to bid up the housing stock, making do-nothing speculators and ticket-clipping middlemen (real estate agents, mortgage brokers, banks etc) in the rentier economy fat? Or is it better employed to ensure supremacy of real production and the dominance of strategic supply chains vis-à-vis potential adversaries?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 12:20

MAGA Jay And Silent Blob

MAGA Jay And Silent Blob

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Jerome Powell used his set-piece speech at Jackson Hole on Friday to execute a dovish pivot. The S&P500 closed within 2pts of an all-time high and 10-year Treasury yields fell 7bps after the Fed Chair said that recent weakening in the labor market that was highlighted by sluggish employment growth in the most recent non-farm payrolls report – including big downward revisions to jobs growth in April and May – meant that the balance of risks had shifted and that some reduction in the restrictiveness of monetary policy may now be appropriate.

That admission must have stuck in the craw for a Fed Chairman who has pushed back against the White House’s at times puerile lobbying for cheaper money. The risk now is that ‘Too Slow’ Jerome Powell – as he has been dubbed by Trump – is suddenly transformed into ‘MAGA Jay’ in the eyes of the commentariat as he bows to pressure to cut rates and perhaps raises questions in some quarters over whether he might have one eye on safeguarding his own seat on the FOMC.

To add insult to injury, Powell also admitted that the risks to inflation are to the upside while the risks to employment are to the downside. To any economics-trained ear, that sounds like stagflation – a scenario that Powell expressly said he couldn’t envision last year.

The President has been busy subverting his Fed Chair by appointing loyalist and Mar-a-Lago Accord author Stephen Miran to fill Adriana Kugler’s (a Biden appointee) seat on the Board of Governors, and also by threatening to anoint a Fed Chair-in-waiting to second-guess Powell’s every utterance before his contract expires in May next year. Recent attacks on Biden-appointed Lisa Cook over allegations of shonky mortgage applications further highlights how the Fed is now treated similarly to the Supreme Court in terms of the administration seeking to stack it with ideological fellow travellers and dispensing with the fiction of central organs of government being political silent blobs. This trend will doubtless cut both ways as California Governor Newsom’s recent behavior regarding Congressional redistricting in Texas amply illustrates.

The unabashed politicization of the supposedly independent and technocratic process of setting the price of money once again confirms that it is no longer the 1990s and that old ideas about optimal policy transmission, central bank credibility and the need to insulate important decisions from the influence of the popular will offers little protection against the new paradigm of raw power politics. Just as the interpretation of law is inherently political, the price of money is inherently political, and all aspects of national policy are being co-opted to support the MAGA vision of the United States and its place in the world.

The political nature of the price of money is, of course, a feature of other economies, too. Down Under in Australia the RBA has recently cut rates for the third time – sparking another wave of FOMO buying in the country’s already poisonously expensive housing market. Tellingly, UBS’s latest Global Wealth Report places Australia second behind only tax haven microstate Luxembourg in terms of the median household wealth. By far the largest driver of Australia’s household wealth is real estate, accounting for 53% of the total compared to just 30% in the United States. The relative proportions of Australia’s wealth composition vs others certainly raises questions about how much of that household wealth is illusory and liable to disappear when the housing market eventually reverts to fair value (as it always does).

Seemingly content to sacrifice their young to the Moloch of housing market speculation, the Australian government is continuing to do its best to ensure that fair value is never achieved and has this morning announced that they are ‘helping’ by bringing forward a scheme for the government to credit wrap first homebuyers with deposits as small as 5%. To put that another way, the taxpayer will be providing credit guarantees for buyers who are just 5% away from negative equity in a generationally expensive market.

Concurrently, the ABC reports that thousands of houses purpose-built for the disabled on city fringes (where services for people with disabilities are thin on the ground) through the promise of turbocharged returns underwritten by a massive government honeypot for the investors who stumped up the capital are sitting empty – because not enough people with disabilities want to live there. Totally not 2008 vibes at all.

This sort of silliness is common in Australia where there is apparently no problem that a big dose of financialization can’t ‘fix’ by creating new and bigger problems (just look at Australia’s energy market – once a source of competitive advantage, but no longer). Such thinking was again on display through a three day productivity summit last week where the usual neoliberal tropes of “it’s a supply issue” and cutting red tape were again rolled out and there was further inching towards financial repression as all agreed that it should be easier for private pension savings to be redirected into government priority areas. Australia’s government also committed to another round of cuts to “nuisance” tariffs right at the time where the rest of the developed world is realising that – with the benefit of hindsight – such moves in the 1980s might have been a bad idea and the ability to make stuff in your own country is actually a very useful thing sometimes.

Contrast that thinking to what is happening in the USA, where Intel has apparently just agreed to allow the US government to take a 10% stake in the company to ensure that strategically important semiconductor manufacturing occurs inside the United States and is treated as a national security priority. Thinking from first principles, economics is the study of scarcity and it is the job of national governments to arrange the scarce factors of production (land, labor and capital) to best ensure the prosperity and security of their people.

Very clearly we are seeing two very different approaches to this problem of scarcity emerging. Is the wealth of nations best employed to bid up the housing stock, making do-nothing speculators and ticket-clipping middlemen (real estate agents, mortgage brokers, banks etc) in the rentier economy fat? Or is it better employed to ensure supremacy of real production and the dominance of strategic supply chains vis-à-vis potential adversaries?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 12:20

France Summons US Ambassador Kushner After He Accused Macron Of Fostering Antisemitism 

France Summons US Ambassador Kushner After He Accused Macron Of Fostering Antisemitism 

France has summoned the US ambassador in Paris over a diplomatic row and surprisingly blunt accusations involving Israel-Gaza policy. The spat started when Ambassador Charles Kushner published open letter to President Emmanuel Macron in The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

Ambassador Charles Kushner accused the French government of not taking sufficient action to curb anti-Semitic violence, and further that its policies have been essentially rewarding Hamas and emboldening antisemitic violence. Kushner's elder son Jared is the husband of Ivanka Trump, and President Trump has previously given Charles full legal pardon after he was convicted of past illegal campaign contributions, tax evasion, and witness tampering in connection with his real estate business, Kushner Companies.

AFP/Getty Images

Kushner's open letter condemned France's recent declaration that it will recognize a Palestinian state at the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting in September. It accused the Macron government of fostering policies which "endanger Jewish life in France."

"Public statements haranguing Israel and gestures toward recognition of a Palestinian state embolden extremists, fuel violence, and endanger Jewish life in France," he wrote. "In today’s world, anti-Zionism is anti-Semitism-- plain and simple," he claimed.

Kushner then listed off a series of actions President Trump has taken to push back on antisemitism in American society, and then said: 

Today, many French Jews fear that history will repeat itself in Europe. Parents encourage their children to emigrate; surveys show most French citizens believe another Holocaust could happen in Europe. Nearly half of French youth report never having heard of the Holocaust at all. What are children being taught in French schools if such ignorance persists?

But Paris has not bowed to these arguments, but swiftly summoned the US ambassador to lodge formal complain.

"France firmly refutes these latest allegations," a Sunday Foreign Ministry statement said. "The allegations from the ambassador are unacceptable." It added that France is "fully committed" to fighting anti-Semitism and that it is not tolerated.

The Foreign Ministry's further accused Kushner's comments over-reach and potentially damaging US-France relations, as they went "against international law, and in particular the duty not to interfere in internal matters of states" by diplomatic personnel.

"Furthermore, they do not live up to the quality of the transatlantic relationship between France and the United States and the trust that should result between allies," it added.

But it appears Kusher's op-ed, or open letter to Macron was approved at the highest levels of the Trump administration. This should come as no surprise given the hardline pro-Israel supporters in Trump's cabinet and the White House.

When asked about it, US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott replied, "Ambassador Kushner is our US government representative in France and is doing a great job advancing our national interests in that role."

Kushner in his letter had at one point directly appealed for the following: "Mr. President, I urge you to act decisively: enforce hate-crime laws without exception; ensure the safety of Jewish schools, synagogues and businesses, prosecute offenders to the fullest extent; and abandon steps that give legitimacy to Hamas and its allies" - in the statement addressed to Macron.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 12:00

The Collapse Of The Democratic Party And Their Deep State Forces

The Collapse Of The Democratic Party And Their Deep State Forces

Authored by Larry Kudlow via RealClearPolitics.com,

If you take a careful look at the decision of a New York appellate court today to throw out the unconstitutional and disgraceful $500 million penalty on President Trump and his businesses…

And then you keep your nose in the newspapers and watch New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, getting busted for mortgage fraud…

And then you go back a bit and look at all the declassified documents released by Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe and Kash Patel that show the entire Russiagate hoax was quarterbacked by President Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton…

And then you just think about this whole rotten sequence — what you see is the collapse of the legal and Deep State forces against Mr. Trump.

In many ways, you could argue it’s the collapse of the Democratic Party.

Not only because the Deep State couldn’t bust Mr. Trump, and the forces of treachery and sedition couldn’t break Mr. Trump, and the prominent liars are themselves now facing criminal indictment, and making it all worse for that crowd — Mr. Trump himself was re-elected.

Which was the Obama-Clinton Deep State’s worst nightmare.

And as far as the Deep State goes, it appears that all of those people who participated in the Russian hoax and various other phony trials — well, they’re getting fired from their jobs. And they’re all lawyering up.

And on top of all that, here’s Mr. Trump running a vastly successful administration — in terms of economic policy, domestic policy, foreign policy, you name it.

Wait a minute, though, don’t forget the president is going to inspect Washington, D.C., this evening — so let’s add law and order to that list.

And he closed the wide open border.

So that adds to the Deep State’s nightmare.

Not only could they not put him in jail for 750 years… Or bust his businesses… Or throw him off the ballot… Or tie him to the so-called Russia hoax…

The worst thing of all for the lawyered up Deep State crowd, though, is that Mr. Trump is succeeding in virtually every initiative he’s put forward.

And, not to rub it in, but I want to quote Mr. Trump’s Truth Social post today: “a great win for America” — which describes his victory in the New York appellate court.

It’s a great win for America for many different reasons.

What comes to mind to me, though, is that it shows that eventually, the American judicial system works.

As bad, inept, and corrupt as some of these judges and spies have been, with all of their political biases and weaponization and lawfare against Mr. Trump…

As bad as they are — as the cases moved up the judicial totem pole, Mr. Trump has won them all.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 11:40

Mail-In Ballots Need To Go: John Lott Jr.

Mail-In Ballots Need To Go: John Lott Jr.

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics,

“I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS,” President Trump declared Monday in a Truth Social post. Later that day, he promised an executive order “to end mail-in ballots because they are corrupt. You know we are the only country in the world, I believe, I may be wrong, just about, the only country in the world that uses them because of what happened, massive fraud all over the place.”

Trump has remained consistent; even before the 2020 election, he warned: “There is a lot of dishonesty going on with mail-in voting.”

Trump doesn’t need to hedge about voting rules abroad. Poland was the one other country that considered conducting its 2020 presidential election by mail during the pandemic, but even it abandoned the attempt. Countries don’t use the kind of mass mail-in voting now used in eight states – where states automatically send ballots to all registered voters, who then mail them back. That system differs from absentee ballots, which require a request and traditionally demanded a reason, such as being out of town on Election Day.

The United States stands out not only for mail-in ballots but also for its unusually broad use of absentee ballots. Of the 47 European countries, 35 – including France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden – ban absentee voting for citizens living inside the country. Ten others – including England, Ireland, Denmark, Portugal, and Spain – allow it only if voters pick up their ballots in person and present photo ID. Six of those restrict absentee ballots to the military or hospitalized voters, and they require verification from the military or hospital itself. The U.S., by contrast, lets anyone claim they will be out of town and receive a ballot by mail.

England once followed rules similar to America’s. But in 2004, officials uncovered a massive fraud in Birmingham city council races. Six winning Labour candidates had acquired about 40,000 fraudulent absentee votes, mainly from Muslim neighborhoods. England responded by ending the mailing of absentee ballots and requiring in-person pickup with photo ID.

France once had similarly loose rules. But in 1975, authorities exposed large-scale fraud on the island of Corsica, where dead people “voted” in the hundreds of thousands and widespread vote-buying flourished. France responded by banning absentee voting altogether.

Concerns over absentee ballots used to unite both Democrats and Republicans. “Absentee ballots are the largest source of potential voter fraud.” That warning doesn’t come from Trump, but from the bipartisan 2005 Commission on Federal Election Reform, led by Democratic President Jimmy Carter and Republican Secretary of State James Baker III.

Voters across the spectrum still share those worries. A Rasmussen poll at the end of last year found 59% of likely voters believe mail-in voting makes cheating easier. Majorities of black, Hispanic, and white voters agreed, along with both young and old. Only Democrats, liberals, graduate-school alumni, and those earning more than $200,000 disagreed. Earlier surveys reached similar results.

Even the New York Times once raised alarms. In 2012, the paper warned that the increased use of absentee ballots “will probably result in more uncounted votes, and it increases the potential for fraud.” But these days, that same newspaper insists voter-fraud claims for absentee ballots are “baseless” and “without evidence.”

American history reinforces these concerns. Between 1888 and 1950, widespread vote-buying led states to adopt the secret ballot. Once voters could no longer prove to buyers how they had voted, the payments stopped. As one state after another started using secret ballots, turnout immediately fell by 8% to 12%, according to my research with the late Larry Kenny at the University of Florida – evidence of just how rampant the practice had been.

The Carter-Baker commission also highlighted how absentee voting enables coercion: “Citizens who vote at home, at nursing homes, at the workplace, or in church are more susceptible to pressure, overt and subtle, or to intimidation. Vote-buying schemes are far more difficult to detect when citizens vote by mail.” The problem is that both the buyer and seller have an incentive to hide the purchase.

But recent cases confirm the risks. Earlier this year, prosecutors indicted six Texans for harvesting ballots and buying votes by collecting absentee ballots. Absentee voting lets sellers prove how they voted, and ballot harvesting lets buyers ensure the votes count – guaranteeing they get what they paid for. Just this month, investigators in Hamtramck, Michigan, opened a fraud case after surveillance video showed a city council candidate’s aide stuffing three stacks of ballots into a drop box. The candidate had won by only a few dozen votes.

Mail-in voting reopens the door to the fraud and vote-buying America worked so hard to eliminate a century ago. That’s why countries such as Norway and Mexico prohibit absentee ballots for citizens voting domestically. Americans deserve the same safeguard – a voting system they can trust.

John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 11:00

Russia 'Made Significant Concessions' On Ukraine Talks, Trump Still Has 'Lot Of Cards' To Play: Vance

Russia 'Made Significant Concessions' On Ukraine Talks, Trump Still Has 'Lot Of Cards' To Play: Vance

Vice President JD Vance appeared on Sunday's Meet the Press on NBC where he presented a generally positive view of Russia-Ukraine peace efforts mediated by Trump, despite the broad consensus being that talks are stalled and neither side has budged from their maximal positions.

Vance claimed the US President still has "a lot of cards left to play to apply pressure" to end the war. "I think the Russians have made significant concessions to President Trump for the first time in three and a half years of this conflict," he said.

Source: Associated Press

Some observers have pointed out, however, that it's a major concession for Moscow to even be engaged in peace dialogue at all, given that by pretty much all metrics it is dominant and winning on the battlefield. It's a concession in its own right for the winning side to even be talking at all.

"They've actually been willing to be flexible on some of their core demands. They've talked about what would be necessary to end the war. Of course, they haven't been completely there yet, or the war would be over. But we're engaging in this diplomatic process in good faith," Vance continued.

The vice president suggested that while Russia indeed has maintained the upper-hand, it has been unable to do everything it wants. "They've recognized that they're not going to be able to install a puppet regime in Kyiv. That was, of course, a major demand at the beginning," Vance described.

"And importantly, they've acknowledged that there is going to be some security guarantee to the territorial integrity of Ukraine." And yet, the Kremlin has rejected outright the idea of deploying Western peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, or the deployment of NATO air power.

That's when he said, "We, of course, have pushed for a ceasefire. But again, we don't control what Russia does. ... What we do believe though is that we continue to have a lot of cards. The president of the United States has a lot of cards left to play to apply pressure to try to bring this conflict to a close, and that's what we're going to do."

This of course includes sanctions, which Vance made clear are not off the table. Days ago Trump said he'll make a major decision in two weeks if talks don't advance at all. 

The reality remains that Putin has made clear that he won't meet with Zelensky unless it is to sign and full and final truce agreement, and not a mere temporary ceasefire.

Essentially a deal has to already be done, and only then would the two presidents meet directly, the Kremlin has said. Otherwise, it becomes a meeting just for the spectacle of having a meeting, the foreign ministry has previously explained. Clearly this scenario of a top-level bilateral meeting is still a long way off...

Zelensky has claimed this Kremlin stance is purposeful, to avoid achieving peace and press the battle forward. Zelensky asserted Friday "the Russians are trying to do anything to avoid the meeting" because "they do not want to end the war" on Ukraine.

But Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov had also stated Friday "Putin is ready to meet with Zelensky, when the agenda would be ready for a summit," but underscored: "and this agenda is not ready at all."

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 10:40

'Godfather Of AI' Warns Superintelligent Machines Could Replace Humanity

'Godfather Of AI' Warns Superintelligent Machines Could Replace Humanity

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Geoffrey Hinton, the pioneering computer scientist called the “Godfather of AI,” has once again sounded the alarm that the very technology he helped bring to life could spell the end of humanity as we know it.

In an interview clip released Aug. 18 as part of the forthcoming film “Making God,” Hinton delivered one of his starkest warnings yet. He said that humanity risks being sidelined—and eventually replaced—by machines far smarter than ourselves.

“Most people aren’t able to comprehend the idea of things more intelligent than us,” Hinton, a Nobel prize-winner for physics and a former Google executive, said in the clip.

“They always think, well, how are we going to use this thing? They don’t think, well, how’s it going to use us?”

Hinton said he is “fairly confident” artificial intelligence will drive massive unemployment, pointing to early examples of tech giants like Microsoft replacing junior programmers with AI. But the larger danger, he said, goes far beyond the workplace.

“The risk I’ve been warning about the most … is the risk that we’ll develop an AI that’s much smarter than us, and it will just take over,” Hinton said.

“It won’t need us anymore.”

The only silver lining, he joked, is that “it won’t eat us, because it’ll be made of silicon.”

From Breakthroughs to Regrets

Hinton, 77, has spent decades pioneering deep learning, the neural network architecture that underpins today’s artificial intelligence systems. His breakthroughs in the 1980s—particularly the invention of the Boltzmann machine, which could learn to recognize patterns in data—helped open the door to image recognition and modern machine learning.

That work earned him the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics, awarded “for foundational discoveries and inventions that enable machine learning with artificial neural networks.”

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences noted how Hinton’s early use of statistical physics provided the conceptual leap that made today’s AI revolution possible.

But Hinton has since emerged as one of the field’s fiercest critics, warning that its rapid development has outpaced society’s ability to keep it safe. In 2023, he resigned from his role at Google so he could speak freely about the risks without implicating the company.

In his Nobel lecture, Hinton acknowledged the potential benefits of AI—such as productivity gains and new medical treatments that could be a “wonderful advance for all humanity.” Yet he also warned that creating digital beings more intelligent than humans poses an “existential threat.”

“I wish I’d thought about safety issues too,” he said during the recent Ai4 conference in Las Vegas, reflecting on his career. He added that he now regrets solely focusing on making AI work, rather than anticipating its risks.

Teaching AI to Care

Hinton has previously estimated there is a 10 to 20 percent chance that AI could wipe out humanity. In a June episode of The Diary of a CEO podcast, he said that the engineers behind today’s AI systems don’t fully understand the technology and broadly fall into two camps: one that believes in a dystopian future where humans are displaced, and the other, dismissing such fears as science fiction.

“I think both of those positions are extreme,” Hinton said.

“I often say 10 percent to 20 percent chance [for AI] to wipe us out. But that’s just gut, based on the idea that we’re still making them and we’re pretty ingenious. And the hope is that if enough smart people do enough research with enough resources, we’ll figure out a way to build them so they’ll never want to harm us.”

At the Las Vegas conference last week, Hinton offered a novel idea for how to mitigate the danger: instead of trying to force AI systems into submission, researchers should design them with “maternal instincts” so they would want to protect humans even as they grow smarter.

“The right model is the only model we have of a more intelligent thing being controlled by a less intelligent thing, which is a mother being controlled by her baby,” Hinton said at the conference.

“They’re going to be much smarter than us,” Hinton warned, adding that “the only good outcome” is if they care about humanity the way a mother regards her child.

“If it’s not going to parent me, it’s going to replace me.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 10:20

Homebuilder Incentives Soar As US New Home Sales Disappoint In July, Prices Plunge

Homebuilder Incentives Soar As US New Home Sales Disappoint In July, Prices Plunge

Amid record July cancellations, and tumbling single-family building permits, new home sales were expected to rise very modestly (+0.6% MoM) last month but instead they dropped 0.6% MoM (thanks in large part to a huge upward revision for June from +0.6% MoM to +4.1% MoM). Despite the upward revision, new home sales remain down over 8% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

The subsidy offered by new home builders clearly separates them from existing home sale volumes but neither shows any signs of life.

The share of builders who reported using sales incentives reached a post-pandemic high of 66% this month as they seek to unload an inventory of completed homes at the highest level since 2009.

Source: Bloomberg

The government’s report showed the median sales price of a new home decreased nearly 6% in July from a year earlier to $403,800, the lowest for July since 2021. Prices have fallen on an annual basis every month this year except one.

Source: Bloomberg

The inversion of new versus existing home prices continues to widen...

Source: Bloomberg

Looking ahead, things don't seem too rosy as this morning saw revised building permits data hitting fresh post-COVID-lockdown lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Homebuilder pain is obvious in this chart as completions plunge thanks to existing home inventory holding at its highest level since 2007...

Source: Bloomberg

And for those hoping for rate-cuts to fix all this, think again...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate cuts have steepened the yield curve and pushed mortgage rates up; but as the chart above shows, the relationship between new home sales and actual mortgage rates has decoupled in recent weeks...

So be careful what you wish for.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 10:12

Why Are More And More Americans Becoming Disabled?

Why Are More And More Americans Becoming Disabled?

Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveals 1.1 million MORE Americans have become disabled in just the past 3 months.

VigilantFox asks: Why is nobody talking about this?

The month of July added another 234,000 disabled Americans, making the current high the third new high in a row.

Prominent data analyst @DowdEdward reports that since February 2021, an additional 5.89 million Americans have answered “yes” to the Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey question on disability.

That’s a 19.6% increase in reported disabilities over just 4.5 years—something he calls a “disaster.”

This should be front-page news.

Why isn’t anyone talking about it?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 09:46

Key Events This Week: Core PCE, Durables, And Fed Speakers But All Eyes On Nvidia Earnings

Key Events This Week: Core PCE, Durables, And Fed Speakers But All Eyes On Nvidia Earnings

Last week's main event was the dovish tilt by Powell at Jackson Hole which left investors increasingly confident on upcoming Fed easing. While Fed news will continue to draw attention this week, the focus will also shift to a slew of inflation releases out of the US, Europe and Japan on Friday, while Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday will be all-important after tech stocks slumped prior to Friday’s rally.

Looking ahead, DB's Peter Sidorov writes that central bank commentary will continue to garner attention this week with the Fed’s Logan (non-voter), Williams, Barkin (non-voter) and Waller due to speak. Divisions among the FOMC are likely to remain evident, and we would expect Logan today to sound more hawkish than Powell on near-term cuts, but Waller on Thursday to lean into the dovish elements of Powell’s speech. The topic of Fed independence will also remain salient with Trump saying last Friday that he would fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook if she did not resign. As a reminder, the controversy emerged last Wednesday as FHFA Direct Bill Pulte alleged that Governor Cook may have committed mortgage fraud. Were Cook to leave her post, it would open another seat for Trump to fill, increasing the prospects of a dovish majority on the seven-person Fed Board.

In Europe, the ECB will release the accounts of its July meeting on Thursday, which come as ECB commentary at Jackson Hole was consistent with an extended pause. President Lagarde avoided discussing the policy outlook but highlighted the resilience of the euro area labour market. Germany’s Nagel argued that the bar for further cuts was high with few arguments for more easing and Finland’s Rehn said that, as "inflation is for now in a good place", an “insurance cut” was not necessary.

On the data front, inflation will be in focus in both sides of the Atlantic on Friday. In the US, DB economists expect the July core PCE deflator to come in at +0.29% MoM (vs. +0.26% previous), bringing the YoY rate a tenth higher to 2.9%, with risks of this even rounding up to 3.0%. They also foresee the accompanying personal income (DBe: +0.4% vs. +0.3% previous) and consumption (+0.6% vs. +0.3%) releases showing solid growth. In Europe, the flash August CPI print for Germany, France, Italy and Spain are due, with our economists expecting annual inflation to edge up slightly across the Big 3 euro area economies (see here for more). And in Japan, we will have the August Tokyo CPI on Friday, with our Japan economist expecting a retreat in core inflation ex. fresh food to 2.5% YoY (2.9% in July).

Ahead of that, other notable US economic releases include new home sales (Mon), the Conference Board's consumer confidence indicator and durable goods orders (both Tue). In Europe, we also have the Ifo survey in Germany (Mon), euro area M3 and credit data for July (Thu) and the ECB’s consumer expectations survey (Fri). The full week ahead calendar is at the end as usual.

Rounding out US events, in tariffs, the "de minimis" exemption will end this Friday, while additional 25% tariffs on India (taking the total levy to 50%) are due to come into effect on Wednesday. On tariff news, last Friday Canada announced that it will remove its retaliatory tariffs on US products that comply with the USMCA, though it will keep symmetrical tariffs on US steel, aluminium and autos.

Finally, the big event in corporate earnings will be Nvidia's results on Wednesday, which come as tech stocks had seen their biggest five-day pullback since April prior to Friday’s rally. Other US tech earnings due include Crowdstrike, Dell and Marvell. In China, the spotlight will be on results from Alibaba, Meituan and BYD. In tech news last Friday Trump announced a deal that will see the US receive 9.9% of Intel’s shares funded by $8.9bn of government grants that have not yet been paid to the company. Intel’s stock rose by +5.53% on the news.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday August 25

  • Data: US July Chicago Fed national activity index, new home sales, August Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Germany August Ifo survey
  • Central banks: Fed's Logan speaks
  • Earnings: PDD Holdings

Tuesday August 26

  • Data: US August Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, July durable goods orders, June FHFA house price index, Q2 house price purchase index, Japan July PPI services, France August consumer confidence
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams and Barkin speak, ECB's Villeroy speaks
  • Earnings: Prudential, MongoDB, Okta
  • Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Wednesday August 27

Data: China July industrial profits, Germany September GfK consumer confidence, Australia July CPI

  • Central banks: Fed's Barkin speaks
  • Earnings: Nvidia, Royal Bank of Canada, Crowdstrike, Meituan, Snowflake, Trip.com, Horizon Robotics, Abercrombie & Fitch, Kohl's
  • Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Thursday August 28

  • Data: US July pending home sales, August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Italy August consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, June industrial sales, EU27 July new car registrations, Eurozone July M3, August economic confidence, Canada Q2 current account balance, Switzerland Q2 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed's Waller speaks, ECB's account of the July meeting, ECB's Rehn speaks, BoJ's Nakagawa speaks
  • Earnings: Dell, Marvell, Autodesk, Pernod Ricard, Affirm, Dollar General, Delivery Hero
  • Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Friday August 29

  • Data: US July PCE, personal income, personal spending, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, August MNI Chicago PMI, Kansas City Fed services activity, UK August Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan July jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, August Tokyo CPI, consumer confidence index, Germany August CPI, unemployment claims rate, July retail sales, import price index, France August CPI, July PPI, consumer spending, Q2 total payrolls, Italy August CPI, Canada Q2 GDP, Sweden Q2 GDP
  • Central banks: ECB July consumer expectations survey, Guindos speaks
  • Earnings: Alibaba, BYD

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Tuesday and the core PCE inflation report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with New York Fed President Williams and Governor Waller on Monday and Thursday, respectively.

 Monday, August 25 

  • 10:00 AM New home sales, July (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%) 
  • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, August (consensus -1.7, last +0.9) 
  • 03:15 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver a speech and take part in a panel at the Bank of Mexico’s Centennial Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. On July 15th, Logan said that her base case was that “we’ll need to keep interest rates modestly restrictive for some time” but noted that “some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon.” Since Logan’s remarks, the July employment report showed a significantly slower pace of job growth in recent months, and we saw Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole this week as consistent with our baseline forecast of a 25bp cut at the FOMC’s September meeting.
  • 07:15 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks at the Bank of Mexico’s Centennial Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. In an interview on August 1st, Williams said he thought the labor market was undergoing “a gentle gradual cooling” that still left it “in a solid place.” Williams noted that the July employment report was “important information … to understand the direction of what we’re seeing in supply and demand for labor.” He said he was not “particularly worried right now about the economy contracting,” noting he expected it to “just be at this pace of growth for a couple quarters and then come back.”

Tuesday, August 26 

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, July preliminary (GS -5.0%, consensus -3.9%, last -9.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, July preliminary (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, July preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.8%); Core capital goods shipments, July preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined another 5% in the preliminary July report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) after declining 9% in June, reflecting continued normalization in commercial aircraft orders after a spike in May. We forecast a 0.2% decline in core capital goods orders—reflecting contractionary new orders readings for manufacturing surveys in July—and unchanged core capital goods shipments—reflecting the slowdown in orders in the prior month.
  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, June (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
  • 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, June (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.1%, last -0.3%) 
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, August (last -20)
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, August (GS 95.0, consensus 96.5, last 97.2)

Wednesday, August 27 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Thursday, August 28 

  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 second release (GS +3.2%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.0%); Personal consumption, Q2 second release (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.4%): We estimate a 0.2pp upward revision to Q2 GDP growth to +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending (+0.3pp to +1.7%) due to stronger public transportation and hotel details in the Quarterly Services Survey (QSS), as well as upward revisions to business fixed investment and net exports.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 23 (GS 225k, consensus 230k, last 235k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 16 (consensus 1,965k, last 1,972k)
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, July (GS -7.0%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.8%)
  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, August (last +1)
  • 06:00 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Miami. Waller, alongside Governor Bowman, dissented from the FOMC’s decision to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at its July meeting. In a statement explaining his dissent released on August 1st, Waller said he believed the FOMC should look through the one-time effect of tariffs on the price level and that the slowdown in growth in the first half of the year, combined with moderate inflation readings outside of tariffs and slowing payroll growth, justified lowering the fed funds rate closer to its estimated neutral level.

Friday, August 29 

  • 08:30 AM Personal income, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%);  Personal spending, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index, July (GS +0.26%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index (YoY), July (GS +2.88%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.8%); PCE price index, July (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), July (GS +2.60%, consensus +2.6%, last +2.6%): We estimate that both personal income and personal spending increased by 0.4% in July. We expect that the core PCE price index rose by 0.26% in July, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.88%. Additionally, we expect the headline PCE price index to increase by 0.18% in July, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.60%.
    08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, July (GS -$91.0bn, consensus -$89.5bn, last -$84.9bn)
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, July preliminary (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, August final (GS 59.0, consensus 58.6, last 58.6): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, August final (GS 3.8%, last 3.9%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 09:45

Key Events This Week: Core PCE, Durables, And Fed Speakers But All Eyes On Nvidia Earnings

Key Events This Week: Core PCE, Durables, And Fed Speakers But All Eyes On Nvidia Earnings

Last week's main event was the dovish tilt by Powell at Jackson Hole which left investors increasingly confident on upcoming Fed easing. While Fed news will continue to draw attention this week, the focus will also shift to a slew of inflation releases out of the US, Europe and Japan on Friday, while Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday will be all-important after tech stocks slumped prior to Friday’s rally.

Looking ahead, DB's Peter Sidorov writes that central bank commentary will continue to garner attention this week with the Fed’s Logan (non-voter), Williams, Barkin (non-voter) and Waller due to speak. Divisions among the FOMC are likely to remain evident, and we would expect Logan today to sound more hawkish than Powell on near-term cuts, but Waller on Thursday to lean into the dovish elements of Powell’s speech. The topic of Fed independence will also remain salient with Trump saying last Friday that he would fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook if she did not resign. As a reminder, the controversy emerged last Wednesday as FHFA Direct Bill Pulte alleged that Governor Cook may have committed mortgage fraud. Were Cook to leave her post, it would open another seat for Trump to fill, increasing the prospects of a dovish majority on the seven-person Fed Board.

In Europe, the ECB will release the accounts of its July meeting on Thursday, which come as ECB commentary at Jackson Hole was consistent with an extended pause. President Lagarde avoided discussing the policy outlook but highlighted the resilience of the euro area labour market. Germany’s Nagel argued that the bar for further cuts was high with few arguments for more easing and Finland’s Rehn said that, as "inflation is for now in a good place", an “insurance cut” was not necessary.

On the data front, inflation will be in focus in both sides of the Atlantic on Friday. In the US, DB economists expect the July core PCE deflator to come in at +0.29% MoM (vs. +0.26% previous), bringing the YoY rate a tenth higher to 2.9%, with risks of this even rounding up to 3.0%. They also foresee the accompanying personal income (DBe: +0.4% vs. +0.3% previous) and consumption (+0.6% vs. +0.3%) releases showing solid growth. In Europe, the flash August CPI print for Germany, France, Italy and Spain are due, with our economists expecting annual inflation to edge up slightly across the Big 3 euro area economies (see here for more). And in Japan, we will have the August Tokyo CPI on Friday, with our Japan economist expecting a retreat in core inflation ex. fresh food to 2.5% YoY (2.9% in July).

Ahead of that, other notable US economic releases include new home sales (Mon), the Conference Board's consumer confidence indicator and durable goods orders (both Tue). In Europe, we also have the Ifo survey in Germany (Mon), euro area M3 and credit data for July (Thu) and the ECB’s consumer expectations survey (Fri). The full week ahead calendar is at the end as usual.

Rounding out US events, in tariffs, the "de minimis" exemption will end this Friday, while additional 25% tariffs on India (taking the total levy to 50%) are due to come into effect on Wednesday. On tariff news, last Friday Canada announced that it will remove its retaliatory tariffs on US products that comply with the USMCA, though it will keep symmetrical tariffs on US steel, aluminium and autos.

Finally, the big event in corporate earnings will be Nvidia's results on Wednesday, which come as tech stocks had seen their biggest five-day pullback since April prior to Friday’s rally. Other US tech earnings due include Crowdstrike, Dell and Marvell. In China, the spotlight will be on results from Alibaba, Meituan and BYD. In tech news last Friday Trump announced a deal that will see the US receive 9.9% of Intel’s shares funded by $8.9bn of government grants that have not yet been paid to the company. Intel’s stock rose by +5.53% on the news.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday August 25

  • Data: US July Chicago Fed national activity index, new home sales, August Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Germany August Ifo survey
  • Central banks: Fed's Logan speaks
  • Earnings: PDD Holdings

Tuesday August 26

  • Data: US August Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, July durable goods orders, June FHFA house price index, Q2 house price purchase index, Japan July PPI services, France August consumer confidence
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams and Barkin speak, ECB's Villeroy speaks
  • Earnings: Prudential, MongoDB, Okta
  • Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Wednesday August 27

Data: China July industrial profits, Germany September GfK consumer confidence, Australia July CPI

  • Central banks: Fed's Barkin speaks
  • Earnings: Nvidia, Royal Bank of Canada, Crowdstrike, Meituan, Snowflake, Trip.com, Horizon Robotics, Abercrombie & Fitch, Kohl's
  • Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Thursday August 28

  • Data: US July pending home sales, August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Italy August consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, June industrial sales, EU27 July new car registrations, Eurozone July M3, August economic confidence, Canada Q2 current account balance, Switzerland Q2 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed's Waller speaks, ECB's account of the July meeting, ECB's Rehn speaks, BoJ's Nakagawa speaks
  • Earnings: Dell, Marvell, Autodesk, Pernod Ricard, Affirm, Dollar General, Delivery Hero
  • Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Friday August 29

  • Data: US July PCE, personal income, personal spending, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, August MNI Chicago PMI, Kansas City Fed services activity, UK August Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan July jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, August Tokyo CPI, consumer confidence index, Germany August CPI, unemployment claims rate, July retail sales, import price index, France August CPI, July PPI, consumer spending, Q2 total payrolls, Italy August CPI, Canada Q2 GDP, Sweden Q2 GDP
  • Central banks: ECB July consumer expectations survey, Guindos speaks
  • Earnings: Alibaba, BYD

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Tuesday and the core PCE inflation report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with New York Fed President Williams and Governor Waller on Monday and Thursday, respectively.

 Monday, August 25 

  • 10:00 AM New home sales, July (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%) 
  • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, August (consensus -1.7, last +0.9) 
  • 03:15 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver a speech and take part in a panel at the Bank of Mexico’s Centennial Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. On July 15th, Logan said that her base case was that “we’ll need to keep interest rates modestly restrictive for some time” but noted that “some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon.” Since Logan’s remarks, the July employment report showed a significantly slower pace of job growth in recent months, and we saw Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole this week as consistent with our baseline forecast of a 25bp cut at the FOMC’s September meeting.
  • 07:15 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks at the Bank of Mexico’s Centennial Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. In an interview on August 1st, Williams said he thought the labor market was undergoing “a gentle gradual cooling” that still left it “in a solid place.” Williams noted that the July employment report was “important information … to understand the direction of what we’re seeing in supply and demand for labor.” He said he was not “particularly worried right now about the economy contracting,” noting he expected it to “just be at this pace of growth for a couple quarters and then come back.”

Tuesday, August 26 

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, July preliminary (GS -5.0%, consensus -3.9%, last -9.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, July preliminary (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, July preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.8%); Core capital goods shipments, July preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined another 5% in the preliminary July report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) after declining 9% in June, reflecting continued normalization in commercial aircraft orders after a spike in May. We forecast a 0.2% decline in core capital goods orders—reflecting contractionary new orders readings for manufacturing surveys in July—and unchanged core capital goods shipments—reflecting the slowdown in orders in the prior month.
  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, June (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
  • 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, June (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.1%, last -0.3%) 
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, August (last -20)
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, August (GS 95.0, consensus 96.5, last 97.2)

Wednesday, August 27 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Thursday, August 28 

  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 second release (GS +3.2%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.0%); Personal consumption, Q2 second release (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.4%): We estimate a 0.2pp upward revision to Q2 GDP growth to +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending (+0.3pp to +1.7%) due to stronger public transportation and hotel details in the Quarterly Services Survey (QSS), as well as upward revisions to business fixed investment and net exports.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 23 (GS 225k, consensus 230k, last 235k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 16 (consensus 1,965k, last 1,972k)
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, July (GS -7.0%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.8%)
  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, August (last +1)
  • 06:00 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Miami. Waller, alongside Governor Bowman, dissented from the FOMC’s decision to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at its July meeting. In a statement explaining his dissent released on August 1st, Waller said he believed the FOMC should look through the one-time effect of tariffs on the price level and that the slowdown in growth in the first half of the year, combined with moderate inflation readings outside of tariffs and slowing payroll growth, justified lowering the fed funds rate closer to its estimated neutral level.

Friday, August 29 

  • 08:30 AM Personal income, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%);  Personal spending, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index, July (GS +0.26%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index (YoY), July (GS +2.88%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.8%); PCE price index, July (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), July (GS +2.60%, consensus +2.6%, last +2.6%): We estimate that both personal income and personal spending increased by 0.4% in July. We expect that the core PCE price index rose by 0.26% in July, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.88%. Additionally, we expect the headline PCE price index to increase by 0.18% in July, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.60%.
    08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, July (GS -$91.0bn, consensus -$89.5bn, last -$84.9bn)
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, July preliminary (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, August final (GS 59.0, consensus 58.6, last 58.6): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, August final (GS 3.8%, last 3.9%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/25/2025 - 09:45

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