Trump's Attorneys Allege Juror Misconduct In New York Case

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

President-Elect Donald Trump’s attorneys have alleged evidence of “grave juror misconduct” in his falsified business records case that has been playing out in New York.

A heavily redacted letter from Dec. 3 and published by the court on Dec. 17 showed Trump’s attorneys stating that the misconduct “violated President Trump’s rights under the federal Constitution and New York law.”

The specific allegations are unclear, and recently released correspondence showed Trump’s attorneys disagreeing with Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office over how much information to release.

The correspondence was published by the court after the judge, New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, issued an order and letter rejecting multiple arguments the president-elect had made about immunity.

In a Dec. 16 letter, Merchan said that the court made additional redactions following redactions made by the different parties. He noted, however, that the allegations were unsworn and that unless a claim of juror misconduct was properly filed under New York law, “this Court cannot allow the public filing of unsworn, and admittedly contested statements.”

“To do so,” Merchan said, “would threaten the safety of the jurors. ... Should a properly filed claim be submitted, these redactions will be revisited.”

He also indicated a hearing was needed to evaluate the claims but said that the defense opposed having a hearing. “Allegations of juror misconduct should be thoroughly investigated,” Merchan said. “However, this Court is prohibited from deciding such claims on the basis of mere hearsay and conjecture.”

Trump’s attorneys argued in their Dec. 3 letter that their client couldn’t pursue appropriate remedies until the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit had ruled on Trump’s request to remove the case to federal court.

In a letter to Merchan on Dec. 5, Bragg’s office requested that the Dec. 3 letter and related correspondence be kept under seal.

His office seemed to suggest that Trump’s attorneys had misrepresented the alleged misconduct.

“[T]he excerpts of the communications that counsel did share included a communication from [redacted] in which [redacted] plainly stated that counsel’s recitation of the purported juror misconduct—the same misconduct chronicled in the Dec. 3 letter—‘contains inaccuracies and does not contain additional information that I never shared,’” the letter stated.

It added that “[a]ccording to counsel’s own recitation of events, [redacted] rejected several attempts to get [redacted] to endorse the factual allegations that serve as the basis of the Dec. 3 letter.”

The letter went on to accuse Trump of failing to provide an adequate record.

“Had defendant provided the sworn allegations required to make a proper motion ... a hearing at which [redacted] allegations could be fully explored in a public forum might indeed be warranted,” it read.

“What he seeks instead is to inject his unsworn, untested, and at least partially inaccurate allegations into the public domain while simultaneously opposing any endeavor to properly evaluate them.”

A series of successive letters from the defense and prosecution followed with Trump’s attorneys accusing Bragg’s office of trying to keep important information secret. While his attorneys favored certain redactions, they indicated they thought the prosecution’s requests went too far and said that the public had a right of access to criminal proceedings.

“These rights of public access to criminal proceedings serve important interests in advancing the fair administration of justice, promoting public confidence in the judiciary, permitting public scrutiny of matters of great public interest, and defending the fundamental rights of the accused,” his attorneys said in a Dec. 9 letter to Merchan.

Merchan’s Dec. 16 letter stated that the court “must balance the competing interests of the public’s right to transparency of these proceedings against the very real need to protect the privacy and safety of the jurors.”

Bragg’s office also accused Trump on Dec. 9 of trying to undermine public confidence in the verdict. In May, a jury found Trump guilty on 34 felony counts. Trump has denied wrongdoing.

In a post to TruthSocial on Dec. 17, Trump criticized Merchan’s decisions on the immunity arguments. Merchan had “completely disrespected the United States Supreme Court, and its Historic Decision on Immunity,” he said.

The president-elect said the case itself is illegitimate, and the opinion written by Merchan “goes against our Constitution, and, if allowed to stand, would be the end of the Presidency as we know it.”

Merchan said that Trump waited too long or failed to preserve objections to evidence and that information related to both preserved and unpreserved arguments did not receive protection under the doctrine of presidential immunity.

The controversy came as the Supreme Court declined on Dec. 16 a podcaster’s request to lift gag orders Trump faced in New York. Podcaster Joseph Nieman argued that his rights as a member of the media were violated by the orders.

On TruthSocial, Trump said that “Merchan has so little respect for the Constitution that he is keeping in place an illegal gag order on me.”

Earlier this year, the New York Supreme Court’s First Appellate Division upheld a gag order on Trump while stating that Merchan “properly determined that petitioner’s public statements posed a significant threat to the integrity of the testimony of witnesses and potential witnesses in this case as well.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 16:20

Trump's Border Czar Anticipates 'Collateral Arrests' In Mass Deportation Plan

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming border czar said that the forthcoming administration’s deportation efforts will lead to “collateral arrests.”

Then-acting ICE Director Tom Homan speaks at an event hosted by the Center for Immigration Studies, on June 5, 2018. Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times

Tom Homan, former acting director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), said in a new interview that illegal immigrants who are not accused or charged with other crimes should expect to be detained and deported.

“In sanctuary cities, expect a lot of collateral arrests,” Homan told the Washington Examiner in an article published on Dec. 18. “I mean, not priority criminal arrests. We can’t get the bad guy in jail. That means we have to go into the communities and find them, and there may be others. We expect a lot of collateral arrests.”

Collateral arrests refer to individuals who are detained during sweeps made by ICE officials, regardless of whether they were the target of the agency’s specific enforcement action. In sanctuary jurisdictions, local jails are often prevented from handing over criminal illegal immigrants to ICE, forcing the immigration agency to find those criminals in the community at large, post-release.

Homan and other Trump officials have stated that they will prioritize targeting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes or are deemed a threat to U.S. national security. They have also pledged to deport anyone residing in the country illegally, although Trump has indicated he would consider allowing so-called Dreamers—illegal immigrants who have been in the United States since childhood—to remain under certain conditions.

The deportations and immigration enforcement measures will start on the first day of Trump’s administration, Jan. 20, 2025, Homan said. Officials are already making plans on how to expand deportations.

“We’re starting across the country on the same day” that Trump is sworn in, Homan told the outlet. About 24 ICE offices ”cover two or three states“ and ”every field office will be given the direction that they are to begin looking for, arresting, detaining, removing those in the United States that have been arrested for a crime,” he said.

Homan also said he wants to obtain U.S. military aircraft to help with the effort because they would serve “as a force multiplier” in the deportation effort.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security estimates that 11 million illegal immigrants were living in the United States as of 2022, the latest statistics that are available. While campaigning in the 2024 contest, Trump talked about creating the “largest deportation effort in the history of our country” and called for using the National Guard and domestic police forces in the effort.

Some Democratic-led states and some sanctuary cities have already said they would resist such efforts. The California Legislature has convened a special session to try to shield people from potential the new policies, including by boosting legal aid for illegal immigrants facing deportation.

The mayor of Denver, Mike Johnston, said last month that he would direct the city’s police force to resist ICE officials from entering the city, telling a local news outlet that he would even go so far as to get arrested over the move.

“More than us having DPD stationed at the county line to keep them out, you would have 50,000 Denverites there,” Johnston said in the paper. “It’s like the Tiananmen Square moment with the rose and the gun, right? You’d have every one of those Highland moms who came out for the migrants. And you do not want to mess with them.”

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat who also faces a Republican-led Legislature, said illegal immigrants “are a really important part of our economy” in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing.

“Trying to move them out of the country is irrational,” Evers claimed. “So, we’ll do whatever we can to avoid that.”

Trump and his surrogates, on the other hand, have said that illegal immigrants strain the U.S. economy, including contributing to increased housing prices, inflation, and taking jobs from American citizens or people living in the country legally.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 15:25

Supreme Court Agrees To Hear TikTok Appeal

By Catherine Yang of Epoch Times

The U.S. Supreme Court on Dec. 18 agreed to hear TikTok’s case challenging a law requiring its China-based parent company to divest of the app by Jan. 19, 2025.

The court will hear oral arguments on Jan. 10, 2025.

TikTok had challenged the divestment law as unconstitutional under the First Amendment, and a three-judge panel in federal court had upheld the law earlier this month.

TikTok then appealed to the high court asking for a pause of the Jan. 19 deadline and asking it to treat its petition as one for review.

The Supreme Court wrote on Dec. 18 that it will hear arguments in the case before deciding whether to pause the deadline.

When President Joe Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) into law, it started a 270-day countdown for ByteDance to divest of TikTok or else stop operating the app in the United States. The law targets apps owned or controlled by foreign adversaries, in this case, the Chinese communist regime.

The law also allows the president to issue a one-time extension of a maximum of 90 days.

President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he can facilitate a sale of TikTok, which would prevent what TikTok calls a “ban.”  TikTok is arguing the deadline should be paused so the new administration can make the call.

The Justice Department argued the law did not violate the First Amendment because it targeted ownership by a foreign adversary for national security reasons, and that it did not target content.

The Supreme Court directed parties to argue on “whether the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, as applied to petitioners, violates the First Amendment.”

The parties have a Dec. 27 deadline to file opening briefs, and a Jan. 3, 2025, deadline for reply briefs. Amicus briefs have a Dec. 27 deadline. Oral arguments will last two hours.

TikTok argued in its Supreme Court petition that the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in finding that PAFACA satisfied “strict scrutiny” regarding whether it infringed on the right to free speech and that the court did not properly review the law under that standard.

TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, and a group of TikTok users argued that PAFACA was used to single out and target a specific speech platform and does not treat other apps equally.

Continue reading at Epoch Times

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 14:45

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains Why He Cut Rates Again As Inflation Data Surges

This should be good...

How is Fed Chair Powell going to explain why The Fed just cut rates AGAIN, despite inflation and growth (hard data) surprising dramatically to the upside? (with one dissent seeing sense and urging no cuts).

...and if they claim that "rates are still restrictive" - show them this... financial conditions are at their loosest since before The Fed started hiking rates...

Still we are sure that Powell will find a way to navigate the 'tough' questions from various economics reporters, leveraging the hawkish adjustments to the dots and inflation forecasts...

With Trump at the helm again, we wonder just how committed to the rate-cutting cycle Powell and his pals really are now - especially since they appear to have decided that Trump's policies will be inflationary.

Countdown to 2025 recession has begun (yes, Trump will be blamed).

Next debt step function: 15 trillion in debt to current baseline. Expect $50 trillion in 2 years.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 18, 2024

...so rate-cuts were transitory too?

Watch Fed Chair Powell live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 14:25

Hawkish Fed Cut Rates As Expected; Signals Dramatically Less Aggressive Rate-Cut Cycle

Tl;dr: The Fed has clearly decided that Trump's policies will be inflationary - ignoring for a moment the forced-hand of a rate-cut today, they hiked their inflation and interest rate forecasts dramatically, with the latter catching up to the hawkish market's perception.

But despite the hawkish shift, they see the unemployment rate basically unchanged from where it is now...

We'll see which of those is wrong soon...

Countdown to 2025 recession has begun (yes, Trump will be blamed).

Next debt step function: 15 trillion in debt to current baseline. Expect $50 trillion in 2 years.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 18, 2024

Just a reminder - The Fed slashed rates by a dramatic 50bps (crisis-like move) less than 3 months ago!! And now - post-election - things are completely different.

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting - on November 7th - the dollar and stocks have rallied while gold and oil have lagged as the dollar flatlined (amid significant volatility on the way from various macro data surprises)...

Source: Bloomberg

Most notable is the fact that inflation data has dramatically surprised to the upside and 'hard' data (excluding sentiment/surveys) has also soared since The Fed started its rate-cutting cycle...

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that financial conditions are at around the same 'looseness' or 'easiness' as they were before the Fed started the rate-hiking cycle...

Source: Bloomberg

The market is fully priced for a cut today but as the chart below shows, expectations for 2025 cuts have collapsed...

Source: Bloomberg

...prompting many to expect a so-called 'hawkish cut' today.

Fed members will also release a new Dot Plot today - we assume they will, as always, adjust towards the market which is currently dramatically more hawkish than the dots...

Source: Bloomberg

So what did The Fed do?

As expected and fully priced in, The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 4.25%-4.50% target range.

The Fed also cut its overnight reverse repo facility rate from 4.55% to 4.25%.

Key highlights suggest The Fed is anything but on an automatic easing path...

• *FED TO ASSESS DATA REGARDING EXTENT, TIMING OF FUTURE MOVES

• *FED SAYS CLEVELAND'S HAMMACK DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF NO RATE CUT

The Fed's dots spiked significantly (as we warned), catching up to the market's more hawkish views:

Breaking that down historically, 2025 expectations surged (catching up to the two cuts priced in by the market - from over 6 cuts earlier in the year)...

...and 2026 rate expectations are now at a record high...

The Fed also hiked its inflation forecast:

• *FOMC MEDIAN 2025 PCE INFLATION FORECAST RISES TO 2.5% VS 2.1%

The Fed has clearly decided that Trump's policies will be inflationary.

To summarize - The Fed expects lower unemployment than it did in September (barely above where it is now), dramatically higher inflation than it expected, and significantly higher rates.

And the punchline - kiss goodbye to the 2% inflation target...

There was nothing in the statement about QT - suggesting the pace of unwind will continue.

Now the question is - how will Powell spin this?

Read the redline of the statement below:

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 14:05

Extending Olive Branch? Houthis Reportedly Plan Security Maritime Seminar With Shipping Insiders

In a surprising move, Iran-backed Houthi rebels—responsible for dozens of attacks on Western-linked commercial vessels and warships in the critical maritime chokepoint of the Southern Red Sea—are reportedly planning to host a seminar and webinar on "security of navigation in the Red Sea."

The shipping news website gCaptain, citing a report from the maritime publication TradeWinds, indicated that the Houthis are extending an olive branch to industry insiders by seeking input on the agenda for an upcoming conference on security and shipping, aimed at providing insights to "enrich the discussion." 

Here's more from gCaptain:

The email, sent to TradeWinds by an events manager for the Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), is raising eyebrows across the shipping community. HOCC is the same entity that has issued threats to shipping companies and shipowners, including warnings earlier this year that vessels failing to cooperate with Houthi authorities would be "banned" from crossing the Red Sea.

Those warnings also included direct threats that ships calling at Israeli ports would be "directly targeted by the Yemeni Armed Forces" in locations "deemed appropriate."

In stark contrast, the latest email strikes a markedly softer tone. It invites industry participation to discuss the "current state of navigation security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden" and Yemen's role in ensuring safe passage.

"Within the framework of enhancing cooperation and discussing issues of common interest," the email reads, "your active participation will undoubtedly contribute to ensuring the success of this event and achieving the desired effect."

Experts warn that responding could inadvertently legitimize the group's actions.

The irony in all of this is that the Houthis have been responsible for disrupting global shipping in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for over a year, targeting Western-linked container ships, tankers, and military vessels.

Washington Institute's Noam Raydan penned a note this week outlining, "Houthis effectively turned the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into an anti-access/area-denial zone" this year, launching attacks on at least 100 commercial ships and warships. 

Houthis are extending an olive branch to the shipping industry at a time when tanker flows through the critical maritime chokepoint are surging from the lows (according to Goldman analysts)...

Source: Goldman

... and also come when the Trump administration is about a month away from entering the White House with expected hardline counter-Houthi policies. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 13:40

"They Hate Trump" - Steve Quayle Fears 'Nuke False Flag' To Keep Him Out Of Office

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Renowned radio host, filmmaker, book author and archeological dig expert Steve Quayle is telling the public to brace themselves for the evil deeds that will be done to try to keep President Elect Donald Trump from taking office. 

This includes a false flag nuke that will be blamed on Russia.  One side of government is trying to nuke America, and another side of government is trying to stop it.  This is what some say all the drone traffic is about.  Quayle explains,

“A false flag is when you initiate an illegal act.  In this case, we are talking about the detonation of not only ‘dirty bombs’ but also nuclear warheads.  The rumors are there are active nuclear warheads...

They that hate Trump and want to literally destroy this country to save the majority of the Democrats and Republicans that appear to have an affinity for China. 

That came out in the Australian News about how many US politicians are on the China payroll.”

Lots of crime and treason have been going on in Washington D.C., and it only got worse in the Biden Administration.  The so-called Swamp is scared.  Quayle says,

“They are scared because of the revelation that President Elect Trump is sending public signals that he’s going to clean house. . . .

The bottom line answer is if you have sold out to the Chinese. . . . Our government was in collusion with the Chinese. 

We funded (CV19) gain of function experiments that resulted in the deaths of people who were vaccinated . . . and participated in the knowing and willing destruction of American citizens...

A top Communist Chinese Party member said . . . with our bioweapon, we defeated the United States...

They are afraid because they know what they are guilty of. . . . President Trump has the goods on them — there is evidence.”

Quayle says there is another government group who is working to stop any false flag. Quayle contends, “They are going to use everything in their bag of evil tricks, including false flag nuclear detonations." 

"The Nuclear Emergency Search Team (NEST) are good guys, and they are working tirelessly. 

They really want to stop this nuclear false flag,”

These people who are against Trump are both desperate and evil. 

Quayle says, “They will do anything, including detonation of nuclear warheads in the US to stop Donald Trump."

"  These are soulless creatures. . . . Their sole purpose is to destroy mankind...

There is only one reason to provoke a nuclear war with Russia, and that is they don’t want Trump in office.  They are Luciferian, and they want a mass sacrifice of 250 million Americans.”

In closing, Quayle says to be on the lookout for the big lie coming in the future.  Quayle says, “The big lie is aliens created us . . . and there is no God. . .”

There is more in the 50-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes one-on-one with Steve Quayle who talks about evil demons that will try a nuclear false flag detonation to stop Donald Trump from taking office for 12.17.24.

*  *  *

Go to Darkbags.com or Sat123.com.  Place your order on or before Sunday, December 22, and your items will arrive before Christmas.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 13:25

Almost 8 Million Illegal Aliens Live In American 'Sanctuary Cities'; Report

Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

A new study from a hardline immigration think tank claims that nearly 8 million illegal aliens are currently residing in the United States due to “sanctuary” cities and states run by Democrats.

As reported by Breitbart, the study from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) determined that there are at least 7.9 million illegals being protected from immigration authorities by these rogue jurisdictions, presenting possible complications for the incoming second Trump Administration.

The vast majority of these illegals, 6.3 million, are found in the states of California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and Washington.

Another 820,000 are living in sanctuary counties located in states that do not have statewide “sanctuary” laws.

And at least 750,000 are living in states that have numerous sanctuary jurisdictions, but not at the state level, including Maryland, New Mexico, and Virginia.

“Although there is much imprecision in the data, the bottom line is that close to eight million illegal aliens, equaling 56 percent of the estimated nationwide total, live in sanctuary jurisdictions,” said CIS’s Jason Richwine in the report.

Pointing to the strict immigration practices of Texas and Florida, Richwine adds that “every state should follow their lead.”

“Eliminating sanctuaries is one of the most important steps that states can take to assist the Trump administration with enforcement,” Richwine continued.

President-elect Donald Trump campaigned heavily on the immigration issue, just as he did in 2016. He has vowed to finish construction of the southern border wall and to carry out the largest mass deportation operation in American history.

Former ICE Director Tom Homan, who has been designated as the next border czar for the second Trump Administration, has frequently said in interviews that the federal government may pursue charges against Democratic officials who interfere with immigration authorities.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 12:45

Trump Effect: Canada Bends The Knee, Puts $1.3 Billion Into Border Security After Tariff Threat

While Canada's government continues to implode, America's apologetic neighbors have committed to spend $1.3 billion (US$913 million) over six years to beef up their border security, after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports for allowing migrants and fentanyl to flow into America.

The funds will go towards Public Safety Canada, the Canada Border Services Agency, the Communications Security Establishment, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police," according to a statement.

While not much is known about how the funds will be spent, around $81 million will go towards various border security measures before the end of March, before that amount triples annually by 2027, according to Global News.

The government provided no specifics of the plan today but has previously promised to expand the number of people, helicopters and drones assigned to monitor the border.

Over 23,000 migrants were apprehended by US Border Patrol in the 12-month period ending in October, more than double the previous year.

Canadian police say they have installed additional cameras and sensors in the same section of the border over the last four years, while Ottawa has previously promised to deploy more officers and technology to combat southbound border crossers.

That said, Canadian law enforcement officials say they are limited in what they can do - for now.

Meanwhile, the province of Alberta announced their own border patrol last week, though few migrants have crossed there.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 12:25

"Free Speech Is A Human Right!" Professors Jonathan Turley & Dave Karpf Clash

In a divide that says a lot about where Americans stand, depending on whom you ask “The Twitter Files” were a revolutionary exposé of government censorship or a “nothingburger”.

George Washington law professor and favorite among ZeroHedge readers Jonathan Turley debated his left-leaning GW colleague, David Karpf, on the preeminent speech question of our age: how to secure free online discourse. Moderated by Gene Epstein of The SoHo Forum, they discussed Musk’s acquisition of Twitter and whether its new form — X — has been a net positive for society.

We encourage readers to listen to the full debate (linked below), but for those short on time here were the key moments:

“Nothingburger”

After Musk released internal Twitter documents from the previous regime to journalists like Taibbi and Shellenberger, we often heard from the left and mainstream media that it was exaggerated excerpts from routine and banal content moderation discussions. Karpf shares this view.

Turley, on the other hand, argues that it was a pivotal moment in exposing a censorship apparatus that had grown out of hand.

“The statement that the Twitter files was a ‘nothingburger’ is really breathtaking,” he says. “They were censoring jokes. They were censoring people who had dissenting views of COVID. People were barred and throttled and blacklisted.”

“[Social media companies] were one monolithic whole, and they were all working with the U.S. government in a censorship system that a federal court called ‘perfectly Orwellian’.”

pic.twitter.com/2vSO3pL3sP

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) December 18, 2024

The Silencing of Jay Bhattacharya

The question of Stanford physician Jay Bhattacharya was raised. The Context: A now-infamous leaked email between Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci, then-directors of National Institute of Health (NIH) and National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), respectively, revealed that the top Biden Admin scientists privately ordered a “devastating published take down” of Bhattacharya’s criticism of national lockdown policy. It was additionally revealed that he was shadow-banned on Twitter.

Asked whether these actions taken against Bhattacharya — now Trump’s pick to lead the NIH — constituted a free speech infringement, Karpf replied that Bhattacharya’s current success proves that his “cancelling” was ineffective and thus inconsequential.

Turley took issue, saying Karpf and his ilk are essentially advocating for certain voices to be “disappeared”.

“I’m really troubled by this line of argument,” Turley rebutts. “It’s sort of like a doctor saying, ‘Yes I committed malpractice, but I didn’t kill the patient… The fact that people can survive is a rather chilling test when determining whether this was a good or bad thing.”

pic.twitter.com/hhaga8Tu04

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) December 18, 2024

Grasping Governments

As Turley points out, for centuries governments have tried to limit the means through which their subjects can communicate via unauthorized channels.

“The internet itself is the most important invention since the printing press,” he argues. “When the printing press came out, the first reaction of governments was to limit the printing press. The internet scared the daylights out of governments. Also now with social media.”

Turley describes social media platforms as powerful tools that have scaled communication from orators standing atop boxes on urban street corners to everyone having global reach at all times. He views this as tremendously positive for speech while Karpf believes Musk abused this power to elect Trump and that Turley is only celebrating because “his side” won.

Karpf: “We are now at a version of Twitter where Elon Musk is spending basically every day with President-to-be Donald Trump, helping to dictate what government policy should be and which agencies should effectively go away. And he's calling for people who work for the government to be fired.”

pic.twitter.com/z4ARibkKHh

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) December 18, 2024

Watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify (start at 46-minute mark):

https://t.co/kikIXu9FdY

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 17, 2024

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 11:45

"This Is A Bloodsport For Them" - Lara Logan Exposes "The Age Of Information Warfare"

Lara Logan is a South African-born journalist and war correspondent known for her extensive work in conflict zones. She gained significant recognition while working for CBS News, particularly for her coverage of the Iraq War and the Arab Spring.

Logan's career includes notable moments such as her 2002 Peabody Award for her report on the abduction of Daniel Pearl.

However, her career has also been marked by controversy, including a high-profile assault in Egypt in 2011, and later, scrutiny over her reporting methods and political views as she started to shed light on the 'not mainstream' narratives that are the hidden realities of our time.

She, better than most, can attest to the powers of the Deep State and the weaponization of establishment-based entities in the age of information warfare.

"We are once again watching the lights of freedom going out all over the world. And it is up to us to determine if they will be lit again, ever."

Watch Logan's impassioned speech below:

Powerful speech by Lara Logan: "We live in the age of information warfare, where propaganda is not simply a weapon, it is the entire field of battle. This is a war for our minds that is aided by advanced technology, and we have never been here, not in all of human history."

"It… pic.twitter.com/xKk4lYCtdh

— Camus (@newstart_2024) December 15, 2024

Full Transcript (emphasis ours)...

"We live in the age of information warfare, where propaganda is not simply a weapon, it is the entire field of battle. This is a war for our minds that is aided by advanced technology, and we have never been here, not in all of human history."

"It is a moment when we as journalists should stand together, united, and regardless of politics, we should fight for the truth and we should fight for freedom. Yet, not very long ago, we allowed one of our own, Tucker Carlson, to be branded as a traitor simply for doing his job. In fact, there were many so-called journalists who were leading the charge against Tucker, accusing him of treason for the simple fact of interviewing the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin."

"And to my knowledge, there was not a single legacy media institution that spoke up. This was more than a politically motivated attack on one man. It was a betrayal of the most sacred principles of a free press. And my media colleagues know this to be true, no matter what they say. My fear is that they either no longer care or that they lack the moral courage to be honest, including with themselves."

"I have worked at the highest levels of the media as a full-time correspondent for 60 Minutes, chief foreign correspondent for CBS News, chief foreign affairs correspondent for CBS News. That was my home for 16 years. And as a journalist, I have sat down with world leaders, mass murderers, and terrorists. And I have held people on both sides of the aisle accountable. I have seen suffering and I have faced evil and I have walked through the fires of hell on distant battlefields."

"I faced my own death at the hands of a mob of some 200 men in Egypt when I was gang raped and sodomized and beaten almost to death while on assignment for 60 minutes. And yet for almost a decade I have been targeted and falsely branded and accused of many things. that I did not do. They have attacked my work, my character, my sanity, and my marriage. And I am not alone. We are many."

"And we will not give up, and we will not give in. To those who wish to sense of the idea of free speech in America and all over the world, media companies. Institutions and journalism schools have failed all of us."

"And for too long we have allowed nonprofit organizations to masquerade as nonpartisan media watchdogs, when in fact they are little more than highly paid political propagandists and assassins whose entire reason for being is to crush anyone who stands in their way and along with them the long held and cherished ideas of free speech, free thinking, and free minds."

"This is a blood sport for them. their political allies and their puppet masters. They know how to kill a journalist without murdering them. We call it cancel culture. In truth, it is a death sentence. And they get away with it because they have information dominance. Some are strong enough to survive, but only a few, like Glenn Greenwald, Tucker Carlson, Matt Taibbi."

"Only a few like them are able to reach greater heights and thrive. These nonprofits that I'm talking about are part of a vast censorship network that includes government agencies. They use deception to mask their actions with lofty goals like preventing the spread of misinformation, disinformation, hate speech. They use phrases like protecting democracy and make no mistake, words matter."

"The media is collaborating with government agencies and operatives to censor and shape the information battlefield, to justify certain actions. For example, when the President of the United States threatens the unvaccinated, saying, our patience is wearing thin, and accuses them of putting communities at risk, his words are designed to justify hatred, censorship, and intimidation."

"And when the Vice President compares January 6th to 9-11 and Pearl Harbor, it is a predicate to silence the opposition and justify the weaponization. of the justice system. We are already witnessing another shaping operation to influence the outcome of the 2024 election. This time with the false claim that if one side wins, it will be the end of democracy."

"This lie contrived to ensure a particular outcome and to sabotage free speech yet again. Overseas taxpayer funds from hardworking Americans are being doled out by contractors under the Office of Transition Initiatives at USAID, or the State Department Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor."

"These contractors, many of them ideological zealots, who are not even US government officials, often make over a quarter million dollars a year, and are outside the reach, Senator, of yourself and committees like this. They hand out taxpayer dollars to programs that are shaped by highly partisan NGOs, who hide behind terms like interreligious dialogue, when in fact they are funding Muslim schools that train Islamic terrorists, like they did in Malaysia."

"Another example is Humanist International. Through them, the State Department is funding atheism grants that actively cultivate an atheist advocacy network in Nepal. This is not just to attack religion and manipulate foreign politics. It is an attack on free speech, faith, and God. While propaganda and censorship are not new, technology means unprecedented power and reach in the hands of a few."

"Companies like Facebook, Instagram, and Google, as you have heard many times today, have been allowed to amass monopoly power. And as a result, they not only reach billions of people across the world, every second of the day, they have absolute control over what we see and what we hear. Imagine those tools in the hands of Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Hitler."

"When the Founding Fathers put freedom of speech first, it was not by chance, it was by design. The rights that followed were in part created. to protect the First Amendment. Without it, they knew that freedom itself would perish. I am reminded today of the words spoken by the British Foreign Secretary, Sir Edward Gray, in 1914, at the beginning of the First World War."

"He said, the lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime. We are once again watching the lights of freedom. They're going out here and all over the world. And it is up to us to determine if they will be lit again, ever."

h/t Camus

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 11:25

The Tone Regarding Ukraine's Future Has Shifted Significantly And Fast

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

While Trump still has to be officially inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States of America, it almost seems he already entered the White House. This has already been demonstrated by Trumps attendance of the formal reopening of one of the pinnacles  of French gothic architecture. Indeed, the Notre Dame. In the limelight of this event, Trump, Macron and Zelensky had a meeting where they discussed the future of Ukraine. While no clear deal(s) seem to have been made yet, some would argue that it boiled down to going from a celebrative event organized in a holy place to a meeting that could lead to an unholy deal. While it is unsure yet what has been exactly discussed during the meeting between the three leaders, the tone regarding the future of Ukraine has definitely shifted significantly and fast!

Since February 2022, the Western mantra was that Ukraine would be supported for as long as it takes and that it was up to Ukraine to decide whether it wanted to engage in negotiations with Russia. A logical argument for those who also continued to emphasize Ukraine’s sovereignty and, directly related to it, the right of self-determination. Both are crucial pillars of the concept of the nation state that has it roots in the Treaty of Westphalia. If the West would be as serious about upholding the international rules-based order as has been voiced so often, then Ukraine should be considered the litmus test.  Not continuing or even stepping up support would in effect boil down to the alternative scenario in which the West would signal that they are unreliable guarantors of security alliances or partnerships (remember that Ukraine received those guarantees from the US and the UK in exchange for giving up its nuclear deterrent), that might makes right and that the West can be impressed and coerced by rattling the nuclear sabre, amongst others. The negative consequences should be clear to anybody with even a basic understanding of security studies or international affairs. 

History also provides us with clues of what might be the result of such an approach. During the 1930’s, Germany felt humiliated because of the treaty of Versailles and the Nazis came with a fascist concept of a civilization state claiming territory based on both historic and ethnic grounds. After it could seize some territories without putting up a real fight, it eventually decided to test France and the UK by invading Poland. Back in the late 1930’s, the United Kingdom was still recovering from the impact of the Great War and the gradual loss of control over its empire and its hegemonic status. From Chamberlains point of view, another large war was to be avoided at all cost. But as all of us know by now, this attitude soon proved to be even more costly in a such a way that nobody could ever have imagined. The parallels with the current situation should be clear and as such have often been drawn by international relations observers. 

Making a leap in time, Putin has been very clear all along about his views of the collapse of the Soviet Union which he calls the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. So to be clear, apparently from the Kremlin’s point of view it is not the more than 25 million Russians that died during World War II fighting Nazi Germany but the nonviolent collapse of a communist block that subjugated many previously independent and sovereign states, that was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the (last) century. 

Eager to reverse what the Kremlin seems to consider as an unpalatable humiliation, Russia embarked on several ‘adventures’ in Georgia, Chechnya, and now clearly Ukraine. This is relevant because this point of view makes it less likely that a deal between Russia, Ukraine and the West will turn out to be a stable and durable one. 

Taking all of the above into account it is the West that now seems to position itself as deal takers instead of deal makers when dealing with rule breakers. The majority of blame should go to Europe. While the war has already been dragging on for almost three years, many European member states continue to talk the talk instead of walk the walk. At the cost of precious lives and Europe’s own security. It is again a demonstration of Europe’s infamous lack of true leadership. We have plenty of Chamberlains and government officials dragging their feet but there is no Churchill in sight, except perhaps for some countries in the east that have been ignored in the past but have been warning the rest of us in Europe for many years. 

Now what does this all mean for the economy the curious and impatient reader might rightfully ask by now. While the government is primarily responsible for offering security to its inhabitants, It also means that businesses – and especially strategic sectors) should be mobilized to support efforts to enhance security in the broadest way. This means efforts to secure the physical (supply chains, industry and logistics) the digital (cyber security, AI and quantum computing) and increasingly space. It should be clear that part of such a mobilization includes much needed funding.

It is here that the financial sector comes into play. Until recently, many politicians and governments were highly critical on financial sector involvement related to the defense industry, making the banking sector wary of providing funding. The pendulum has swung. At least amongst politicians. In the Netherlands  former Minister of Defence Kaisa Ollongren called for pension funds and other players in the financial sector to increase investments in this specific sector. But this also applies on a European level.  And that means that financial markets will also have to play an important role. 

On a European level we have seen initiatives for EU funding for the defence industry financed via the issuance of Eurobonds. While common debt is still a thorny issue for the more frugal European member states, alternative ways to coordinate funding and effectively channel this to relevant industries or new industrial initiatives should be taken into consideration. The previous Recovery and Resilience Fund could (partly) serve as a blue print. This means that there could also be a role for the ECB. While the possibilities are plentifully it becomes increasingly urgent to act.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 11:25

Textron Halts ATV, UTV, Snowmobile Production Amid Imploding Consumer Demand

Defense contractor and industrial conglomerate Textron has halted production of its entire powersports product line within its Specialized Vehicles unit, which includes golf carts, utility vehicles, side-by-sides, ATVs, and snowmobiles. Textron cited "soft" consumer end-market powersports demand, a warning that overlaps with Polaris' concerns about "challenging retail demand" for its ATVs, UTVs, and jet skis.

Textron's powersports line includes ATVs, UTVs, and snowmobiles by Arctic Cat, golf carts by E-Z-GO, and utility offroad/ turf vehicles by Cushman and Jacobsen. 

"The consumer end market demand for powersports products continues to remain soft," Textron wrote in a filing on Wednseday morning. 

Sliding consumer demand for ATVs, UTVs, and snowmobiles has forced Textron to pause powersports production "indefinitely in the first half of 2025." 

As a result these developments, Textron noted that it expects restructuring costs between $190 million to $205 million, up from a previously announced range of $165 million to $170 million. 

"The increased charges of $25 million to $35 million are related to contract termination costs associated with the powersports production pause," Textron said, adding, "These charges will be recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024, with additional cash outlays of $25 million to $35 million expected primarily in the first half of 2025." 

In addition to Textron, Polaris CEO Mike Speetzen wrote in the fall that "consumer confidence and retail demand remain challenging" for its ATVs, UTVs, jet skis, and snowmobiles. 

Demand for off-road vehicles has been crushed in a high-interest-rate environment that will continue into 2025. Plus, everyone who wanted a Polaris RZR or Arctic Cat ATV bought those vehicles with cheap money during the Covid bubble. 

Not all is lost for Textron. Goldman's Noah Poponak recently told clients that the stock is a "Buy" on strong private jet demand and overall aerospace in a "strong demand cycle." 

As for readers who have been actively searching for deals on ATVs, UTVs, and snowmobiles but did not pull the trigger during Covid because of high prices and shortages... Well, Arctic Cat might be offering some of the best deals.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 11:05

Bluesky 'Trust And Safety' Head Embraces Canadian-Style Speech Limits For Liberal Site

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

After the election, liberal pundits and media have attempted to rally the public in a shift from X to Bluesky, a smaller site that is viewed as a safe space for the left. I have been critical of the move as a retreat deeper into the liberal echo chamber after an election that showed how out-of-touch many of these writers were with the majority of voters. They would be better served engaging with a broader swath of public opinion.  Today, one of the top Bluesky officials embraced Canadian-style speech controls and rejected more robust views of free speech as the model for the site.Bluesky has long been criticized as a site built on the concept of “safe spaces” in higher education for those triggered by opposing views. Many of those leaving Twitter long for the “good ole days” of when all social media platforms engaged in extensive censorship to exclude or marginalize opposing voices.

This week, Aaron Rodericks, the head of trust and safety at Bluesky, confirmed the worst fears of the site. Bluesky has been hammered with complaints from conservatives and libertarians that they have been subject to not only death threats on the site but also blocked from posting.

Some have demanded even more aggressive measures to block or suppress conservative or libertarian views deemed threatening or demeaning. Liberal pundits have heralded the site as allowing them to “breathe again” without hearing the type of opposing views allowed on X.

Rodericks espoused the type of anti-free speech rationalizations that are addressed in my recent book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” He insisted that there are alternative views of free speech than the type of “absolutism” supported by figures like myself.

Rodericks juxtaposed what he called “free speech absolutism” against the more enlightened Canadian model, adding, “I think it just comes down to philosophies of free speech.”

He explained:

“Being Canadian shapes a lot of my perspective. There’s enough of the American perspective in the world on a day-to-day basis. For example, in the Canadian constitution… you have rights and freedoms, but they’re not unequivocal.”

It was a chilling reference for many in the free speech community since free speech is in a free fall in Canada.  As we have previously discussed, there has been a steady criminalization of speech, including even jokes and religious speech, in Canada. The country has eviscerated the right to free speech and association.

Yet, that is apparently the model for Bluesky. Rodericks repeats the doublespeak of the anti-free speech movement in claiming that he just wants to create a space where all are welcomed but excluding those who are not welcomed:

 “I’m glad that [critics] consider it a safe space and ideally it can be a safe space for them as well. The whole point of Bluesky is for it to be safe and welcoming to all users. I think the issue is some people are defining their identity by opposition to others and how well they can harass others and deny their existence. Bluesky may not be the right place for them.”

Not surprisingly, Rodericks used to work at trust and safety for Twitter before he was fired by Elon Musk. He has also sued Musk over a tweet. At issue is Musk’s response to the criticism of his firing Rodericks’s team by noting, “Oh you mean the ‘Election Integrity’ Team that was undermining election integrity? Yeah, they’re gone.”

That would seem clearly protected opinion under the First Amendment, but, of course, for the former censors of Twitter, it should not be allowed.

We have previously discussed the censorship standards at Twitter. For example, former Twitter executive Anika Collier Navaroli testified on what she repeatedly called the “nuanced” standard used by her and her staff on censorship. Toward the end of the hearing, she was asked about that standard by Rep. Melanie Ann Stansbury (D., NM). Her answer captured precisely why Twitter’s censorship system proved a nightmare for free expression.

Navaroli then testified how she felt that there should have been much more censorship and how she fought with the company to remove more material that she and her staff considered “dog whistles” and “coded” messaging. She said that they balanced free speech against safety and explained that they sought a different approach:

“Instead of asking just free speech versus safety to say free speech for whom and public safety for whom. So whose free expression are we protecting at the expense of whose safety and whose safety are we willing to allow to go the winds so that people can speak freely.”

Rep. Stansbury responded by saying  “Exactly.”

The statement was reminiscent of that of former CEO Parag Agrawal. After taking over as CEO, Agrawal pledged to regulate content as “reflective of things that we believe lead to a healthier public conversation.”

Agrawal said the company would “focus less on thinking about free speech” because “speech is easy on the internet. Most people can speak. Where our role is particularly emphasized is who can be heard.”

The same standard seems to be at play at Bluesky as controversial figures like Rodericks decide which views are deemed harassing or amount to a denial of the existence of others. They will be shown, Canadian style, why “Bluesky may not be the right place for them.”

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 10:45

Trump Formally Wins Electoral College Vote

Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times,

President-elect Donald Trump has formally won the Electoral College, officially securing the presidency on Tuesday.

Trump reached the milestone when electors in Texas awarded him the state’s 40 electoral votes and sealed his victory.

Texas officials joined other presidential electors across the country as they convened at their respective state capitols to cast their electoral ballots and formalize Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election held on November 5.

Electoral votes for the election were allocated to states based on the 2020 Census.

Each state’s electoral votes are equivalent to their number of House representatives and two senators representing their states. The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and a majority of 270 is needed to win the presidency.

Trump surpassed the required number on Tuesday, officially securing 312 electoral votes, while Harris won 226.

Earlier Tuesday, the president-elect celebrated Pennsylvania’s electoral vote certification. Trump won the crucial swing state, securing its 19 electoral votes.

“Our BIG Pennsylvania WIN. So nice!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, along with an image of the state’s official electoral college ballot.

Trump notably won all seven battleground states in the election.

Nationally, Trump also won the popular vote.

Additionally, a Republican trifecta was secured in the election. Along with the presidency, Republicans will also have control of the House and Senate.

“America has given us an unprecedented mandate,” Trump declared after winning the election.

Trump’s incoming administration is actively preparing for his second term in office.

New Team Takes Shape

Since his decisive victory, Trump has announced nominations for his next presidential Cabinet and White House staff.

The president-elect’s Cabinet picks continue to meet with lawmakers on Capitol Hill this week to shore up support from their confirmations, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s pick for Health and Human Services secretary, and Tulsi Gabbard, his choice for intelligence chief.

Also on Tuesday, Trump announced two more nominations for U.S. ambassadorships.

Herschel Walker, retired NFL player and former Georgia Senate candidate, was selected to serve as the U.S. ambassador to the Bahamas.

Trump also chose Nicole McGraw, a philanthropist and businesswoman, as the next U.S. ambassador to Croatia.

Meanwhile, electors have until Dec. 25 to send their results to Washington, D.C. According to the Constitution, Harris must declare the result of a presidential election as the official head of the Senate. In a joint session of Congress on Jan. 6, lawmakers will certify the results of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and JD Vance will be officially sworn in as president and vice president on Inauguration Day, set for Jan. 20.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 09:05

Renter Nation Returns? Multi-Family Building Permits Soared In November

A mixed picture of the housing market this morning with Housing Starts declining for the third straight month (-1.8% MoM vs +2.6% MoM exp) but Building Permits soaring 6.1% MoM (massively outperforming the +1.0% exp) - the biggest MoM jump since Feb 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

That lifted the Permits SAAR to 1.505mm - the highest since Feb 2024 - while Starts SAAR fell to near COVID lockdown lows...

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in Permits was all thanks to multi-family units (which rose 22.1% MoM - the most since Feb 2023) while multi-family Starts plunged 24.1% MoM (perhaps due to hurricane impacts)...

Source: Bloomberg

We've seen this optimistic pattern before - but it didn't end well last time...

Source: Bloomberg

What's interesting is that homebuilders suddenly seem optimistic (about renter nation), despite a plunge in rate-cut expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

How will they feel about a hawkish rate cut later today?

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 08:40

S&P On Pace For 58th Record High Of The Year With Fed Set To Cut Rates

US equity futures and global stocks rebounded on Wednesday as investors awaited the Fed's final policy decision of the year, where the US central bank is widely expected to cut 25bps. As of 8:00am, futures for the S&P 500 advanced 0.3%, on pace for their 58th record high of the year, while Nasdaq 100 futs rose 0.2% after both indexes fell on Tuesday. We are seeing some momentum reversions early with TSLA (-2.5% pre mkt after closing at a new ATH yday) and NVDA (+2.7%) the standouts on light news. The Stoxx 600 was set for its first day of gains in five sessions, while Asian equities also gained, snapping a three-day losing streak (FTSE +20bps, CAC +40bps, DAX +40bps, Nikkei -72bps, Hang Seng +83bps, Shanghai +62bps). US treasuries dropped, the yield on the 10Y TSY rising 2bps to 4.41% as the dollar index also gained, as did oil, with WTI rising 0.6% to $70.51. Elsewhere, Bitcoin slid 1.55% to $104,740 as global equities chop around ahead of FOMC this afternoon (consensus expects 25bps cut and messaging of slowing pace of cuts going forward, full preview here). If that wasn't enough, tomorrow we also get BoE/BoJ. On today's macro calendar we get housing start and building permits, but the highlights is the 2pm FOMC decision and 2:30pm Powell press conference.

In corporate news, Boeing stock was about 1% higher after it resumed production across its range of aircraft programs at factories in the Pacific Northwest after a lengthy strike. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS) rises 10% ahead of a data update on Wednesday from an early trial of its experimental treatment for patients with eczema.
• General Mills (GIS) slips 3% as the company targets organic sales for the full year at the lower end of previously given ranges due to higher promotional investments. The food company also reduced the top end of its adjusted EPS forecast.
• Heico (HEI) declines 4% after the manufacturer’s sales fell short of estimates, driven by a decline across the electronic technologies group.
• Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) gains 3% after Citi double-upgraded the closeout retailer to buy, removing the stock’s only negative rating.
• Post Holdings (POST) rises 2% after the packaged-food company said it agreed to acquire Potato Products of Idaho LLC.

While a quarter-point Fed interest-rate cut is almost fully priced in for Wednesday, investors will focus on the outlook for 2025 as inflation decelerates more slowly than anticipated and the economy remains resilient.

The possible impact of key policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump adds to the uncertainty. Last quarter, the Fed’s so-called dot plot projected a full percentage point of rate cuts for 2025, following a similar magnitude of easing this year. Currently, money markets are pricing in that a cut on Wednesday would be followed by less than two 25 basis-point reductions next year. Read our full preview here for more.

"Today’s decision will be less consensual than what the market expects," said Florent Wabont, an economist at Ecofi Investissements. “It think it’s the end of back-to-back cuts. The big question is how will Jerome Powell communicate this to the market.”

Still, while Wall Street banks have started anticipating fewer reductions, some interest-rate option traders are betting the market’s view is too hawkish and that the Fed would ease policy more closely to what it projected in September: the equivalent of four quarter-point cuts.

“I don’t expect the market to move hugely today,” said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Co. Yields already reflect potentially fewer rate cuts and “that there is a bit more risk premium already baked into that in terms of the inflation dynamic,” he said.

European stocks also rose as they looked to snap a four-day losing streak while shorter-dated bonds in the region outperform on signs of easing inflation pressures. The Stoxx 600 adds 0.2%, led by gains in energy, bank and technology shares. Commerzbank AG rose after UniCredit SpA said it has boosted its stake in the German lender. In Japan, shares of Nissan jumped the most since at least 1974 on news that the ailing carmaker is exploring a possible merger with Honda Motor. Renault SA, Nissan’s biggest shareholder, rose as much as 7.4% in Paris. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Commerzbank shares gained as much as 4.3% after UniCredit said it has boosted its stake in the German lender to about 28%.
• Renault shares jump as much as 7.4%, the biggest gainer among European carmakers on Wednesday, as analysts say news Japanese carmakers Nissan and Honda are exploring a possible merger is positive for the French company’s stock.
• Kontron shares jump 11% to their highest intraday level since late July after the German IT provider received an order from a “leading European company in the defense, security, and aerospace technology sectors” worth around €165 million, according to statement.
• EFG rises as much as 8.7%, putting stock on track for biggest gain since 2020, as UBS upgrades to buy due to EPS estimate increases and the private-banking group’s valuation.
• Hexatronic gains as much as 8.2%, after Kepler Cheuvreux initiated coverage of the Swedish fiber-optic cable manufacturer with a buy recommendation, saying the company has “potential for a comeback in 2026.”
• Nestle shares drop as much as 1.8% to the lowest level since 2018 after Stifel analysts lowered their estimates and price target on the Swiss food company, citing a “challenging” year ahead.
• DocMorris and Redcare Pharmacy slumped. Germany’s biggest drugstore chain DM plans to ship over-the-counter medicines from the Czech Republic and sell them online in Germany, Handelsblatt reports.
• OSB Group shares drop as much as 7.8%, their worst day in four months, after the lender is downgraded to hold from add at Peel Hunt as loan growth and net interest margin (NIM) pressures are expected to hit profits.
• DFDS falls as much as 6% after Carnegie downgraded the Danish ferry operator to hold from buy after the company closed its acquisition of Ekol International Transport.
• AT&S plunged as much as 27%, its biggest daily fall on record, after the maker of circuit boards warned that full-year revenue won’t meet expectations.
• IntegraFin shares drop as much as 11% after the investment platform provider reported results and unveiled plans to reduce some client fees, which analysts said could raise costs and lower the consensus estimates for 2025 and 2026.

Asian stocks eked out small gains, led by a rebound in Chinese and South Korean shares, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of the year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up about 0.1%, with tech heavyweights such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics among the biggest contributors. The Hang Sang China Enterprises Index and Korea’s Kospi each jumped about 1%. The gains in Chinese shares came after local regulator issued guidelines stipulating state-owned firms to improve and strengthen market value management over their holding companies. Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech stocks shrugged off news that the US is set to initiate a trade investigation into Chinese semiconductors in the coming days.  Japanese shares fell as sentiment remained cautious ahead of the central bank’s monetary policy decision this week. The country’s automakers soared on news that Nissan Motor is exploring a possible merger with Honda.

In rates, US Treasuries were little changed ahead of the Fed announcement, the 10Y rising 1bps to 4.41%. Still, the yield on the 10-year note has surged about 80 basis points since September as traders rethink their outlook for inflation and policy easing. Gilts gained at the open after UK core and service CPI rose less than expected in November but its only front-end bonds that have sustained the move. UK two-year yields fall 1 bp to 4.45% while 10-year borrowing costs add 1 bp. The German yield curve is also steeper as euro-area CPI was revised lower.

In US, equity futures rise. Treasuries are steady before the Fed decision with US 10-year yields flat at 4.40%.

In FX, the Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar was little changed. The pound fluctuated after UK inflation rose to an eight-month high in November, drifting further above the Bank of England’s 2% target and supporting expectations that it will hold interest rates at its final meeting of the year. The Antipodean currencies are the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.4% each against the dollar. The euro adds a few pips.

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.8% to $70.60 a barrel. Spot gold is steady near $2,648/oz. Bitcoin falls 2% after topping $108,000 for the first time on Tuesday.

Looking at today's calendar, besides the FOMC at 2pm, US economic data calendar includes November housing starts/building permits and 3Q current account balance (8:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 6,063.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 514.49
• MXAP little changed at 184.07
• MXAPJ up 0.3% to 581.40
• Nikkei down 0.7% to 39,081.71
• Topix down 0.3% to 2,719.87
• Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 19,864.55
• Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,382.21
• Sensex down 0.6% to 80,196.11
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 8,309.37
• Kospi up 1.1% to 2,484.43
• German 10Y yield up 1.4 bps at 2.24%
• Euro little changed at $1.0493
• Brent Futures up 0.8% to $73.74/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,648.83
• US Dollar Index little changed at 107.01

Top overnight News

• The PBOC sent its first signal in months of its discomfort with the record-setting sovereign bond rally, triggering a slide in the market. The PBOC has urged financial institutions involved in “aggressive trading” in the bond market to pay close attention to relevant risks including those in the rates market. BBG
• China said top managers of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) will be partly judged on their companies’ stock performances and must have plans to revive their shares in times of consecutive or significant declines. A document published by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission also mentioned that SOE managers should promote share repurchases, M&A, and higher dividends. SCMP
• US crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would be a fourth straight decline and will cut total holdings to the lowest since September if confirmed by the EIA today. BBG
• An agreement to halt the 14-month-old war in Gaza and free hostages held in the Palestinian enclave could be signed in the coming days with talks in Cairo making progress, sources briefed on the meeting said on Tuesday. RTRS
• UK CPI climbs M/M in Nov, but comes in a bit below the consensus on core (+3.5% vs. the Street +3.6% and vs. +3.3% in Oct). RTRS
• Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, will visit Kyiv next month and would be open to meetings in Moscow if invited, a person familiar said. BBG
• FOMC Preview: The FOMC is likely to lower the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bp to 4.25-4.5% on Wednesday. We expect the main message of the December meeting to be that the FOMC anticipates that it will likely slow the pace of rate cuts going forward, and we have revised our forecast for 2025 to eliminate a cut in January. We continue to expect cuts in March, June, and September next year, and now expect a slightly higher terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%. GIR
• Boeing (BA) said late on Tuesday it has resumed production of all airplane programs that had been halted by a machinists' strike in the Pacific Northwest. They confirmed last week it restarted production of its best-selling 737 MAX jetliner in early December - about a month after the end of a seven-week strike by 33,000 factory workers - and said it has now resumed wide-body programs in Everett, Washington that were impacted. RTRS
• House Speaker Mike Johnson’s struggle for a deal to keep the government open after Friday is an ominous sign for his party’s ability to push through Trump’s early priorities. Lawmakers agreed to extend government funding into March, with a bill that includes $100 billion in disaster aid. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after the earlier upward bias somewhat abated, with sentiment cautious following the negative lead from Wall Street with eyes turning to the FOMC announcement and Chair Powell's presser. ASX 200 is currently flat as the upside in Real Estate, Tech, and Healthcare offset losses in Financials. Nikkei 225 was subdued but with ranges narrow in the run-up to Thursday's BoJ as expectations lean towards a hold. Meanwhile, Nissan  shares surged 22% amid several source reports suggesting a potential merger with Honda, whose shares fell 3%. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp saw positive trade with Chinese markets outperforming despite quiet newsflow but sentiment buoyed ahead of the PBoC's LPR setting on Friday.

Top Asian News

• Australia sees 2024/25 budget deficit at AUD 26.9bln (vs AUD 28.3bln projected in May); 2025/26 expected at AUD 46.9bln and 2026/27 at AUD 38.4bln.
• Honda Motor (7267 JT/HMC) and Nissan (7201 JT/NSANY) to begin merger talks amid EV competition, according to Nikkei. Honda and Nissan are considering operating under a holding company and soon will sign a memorandum of understanding. Their respective stakes in the new entity, as well as other details, will be decided later. "They also look to eventually bring Mitsubishi Motors, in which Nissan is the top shareholder with a 24% stake, under the holding company. This would create one of the world's largest auto groups, with combined sales among the three Japanese players topping 8 million vehicles." Bloomberg, Reuters, and the FT subsequently released similar reports.
• South Korean Finance Minister Choi said will utilise all available resources to manage the economy as stably as possible, according to Reuters.
• Indian Stock Exchanges to reportedly talk about keeping the market open on Saturday, Feb. 1, 2025, during the Union Budget, according to CNBC-TV18 citing sources.

European bourses began the European session on either side of the unchanged mark to display a mixed open; since, sentiment has improved a touch with most indices managing to climb incrementally into the green. European sectors are mixed, in-fitting with the indecisive price action seen in the complex thus far. Energy takes the top spot, lifted by strength in underlying oil prices. In the banking sector, UniCredit (+0.5%) upped its stake in Commerzbank (+2.9%) to 28% (prev. 21%). Basic Resources is found at the foot of the sector list, with metals prices continuing to extend the losses seen in the prior session. US equity futures are very modestly in the green in-fitting with the price action seen in Europe, but also as traders eye the looming FOMC Policy Announcement. Novo Nordisk's (NOVOB DC) Ozempic faces EU review for potential eye disease connection.

Top European News

• ECB's Wunsch says tariff impact is dependent on FX moves. With EUR at parity, would not lose much competitiveness. Guess rates will land somewhere around 2%. Four cuts is a meaningful scenario that he feels relatively comfortable with. No longer consensus on QE working so well when economy is doing okay.
• ECB's Lane says incoming information and the latest staff projections indicate that the disinflation process remains well on track. While domestic inflation is still high, it should come down as services inflation dynamics moderate and labour cost pressures ease. Looking to the future, in the current environment of elevated uncertainty, it is prudent to maintain agility on a meeting-by-meeting basis and not pre-commit to any particular rate path. Monetary easing can proceed more slowly compared to the interest rate path embedded in the December projections in the event of upside shocks to the inflation outlook and/or to economic momentum. Equally, in the event of downside shocks to the inflation outlook and/or to economic momentum, monetary easing can proceed more quickly. Says argument for lowering rates by 50bps was to show that the ECB is no longer restrictive

FX

• DXY is essentially flat and trading within a 106.82-107.03 range ahead of today's FOMC rate decision and Fed Chair Powell thereafter. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.25-4.50%. Attention will be on any clues for future decisions given concerns on rising inflation risks, with inflationary pressures potentially set to rise due to President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs and tax cuts. The 2025 dot plot is expected to show 3 cuts vs. prev. 4 cuts.
• EUR/USD continues to linger around the 1.05 mark and is currently within yesterday's 1.0479-1.0534 range. ING is of the view that there is a good chance the pair will continue to hover around 1.05 for the rest of the year.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD and in-fitting with global peers. Markets await tomorrow's BoJ policy announcement. Expectations and recent source reports have been increasingly leaning towards the BoJ holding rates at 0.25% at the upcoming meeting. USD/JPY is currently caged within yesterday's 153.16-154.34 range.
• Cable is back below the 1.27 mark after the latest UK inflation data printed largely in-line / slightly cooler-than-expected. The release had little sway on pricing for tomorrow's announcement (currently around 2bps), however, around 57bps of easing is currently priced in vs. around 53bps pre-release as some of the readings were a touch below consensus.
• Antipodeans are both at the foot of the G10 leaderboard vs. the USD with both pairs hitting fresh YTD lows amid the broader cautious sentiment, weakness in base metals, and potential headwinds as Australia expects its budget deficit to increase in 2025/26.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1880 vs exp. 7.2838 (prev. 7.1891)

Fixed Income

• USTs are relatively contained ahead of the FOMC. USTs are marginally in the red within a slim 109-25 to 109-30 band, which is entirely within Tuesday’s 109-17 to 109-31+ parameters. The FOMC is expected to deliver a 25bps cut; focus will be on the 2025 dot plots and forward guidance (FOMC Preview can be found at the top of the sheet).
• Bunds are in the red but off lows. Down to a 134.65 trough in the European morning, with catalysts driving it slim at the time. Since, lifted off this and back towards but yet to breach the 134.82 overnight peak. A slide and text release from ECB’s Chief Economist Lane spurred no sustained reaction, with the Chief Economist keeping his options open around the 2025 policy path.
• Gilts gapped higher by just over 10 ticks as markets digested the largely in-line to slightly cooler-than-expected release for some metrics. While a slight dovish reaction was seen at the open, this has pared with markets ascribing essentially no probability to a December BoE cut. Gilts currently trading around 93.10.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are in the green recouping almost all of the downside seen on Tuesday though action is fairly modest thus far as the risk tone remains tentative into the FOMC. Upside which has been helped by a larger than expected draw in the Private Inventory release. Brent'Feb 25 currently near session highs around USD 73.75/bbl.
• Spot gold is incrementally firmer but yet to deviate significantly from the unchanged mark with XAU posting a very narrow USD 2642-2651/oz band for the session.
• 3M LME Copper is contained, echoing the risk tone into the aforementioned risk events. Holding at the USD 9k mark but did briefly dip to an incremental fresh WTD low at USD 8.95k overnight.
• UBS retains its bullish view on Gold for the next 12-months, forecasts XAU hitting USD 2.9k/oz by end-2025
• Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -4.7mln (exp. -1.6mln), Distillate +0.7mln (exp. +0.7mln), Gasoline +2.4mln (exp. +2.1mln), Cushing +0.8mln (prev. -1.5mln).
• Qatar set Feb Al-Shaheen crude term price at USD 1.05/bbl (vs USD 0.73/bbl in Jan) above Dubai quotes.
• OPEC+ is reportedly wary of a renewed rise in US oil output when Trump returns as US President as more US oil would further erode OPEC+ market share, according to Reuters sources.
• Germany's BDEW says domestic NatGas usage +3.3% Y/Y.

Geopolitics

• "The IDF has approved plans for major strikes in Yemen and is prepared to act pending government approval", via Open Source Intel citing N12 News.
• IRGC has reportedly tightened its control over Iran's oil industry, they now control as much as half of the exports, via Reuters citing sources.

US event Calendar

• 07:00: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications -0.7%, prior 5.4%
• 08:30: Nov. Housing Starts MoM, est. 2.6%, prior -3.1%
  • Nov. Housing Starts, est. 1.35m, prior 1.31m
  • Nov. Building Permits, est. 1.43m, prior 1.42m, revised 1.42m
  • Nov. Building Permits MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -0.6%, revised -0.4%
• 08:30: 3Q Current Account Balance, est. -$287.1b, prior -$266.8b
• 14:00: Dec. FOMC Decision

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There continues to be a lot going on as we hit the final FOMC decision of the year today. More on that below but last night saw the 12th day in a row where the number of decliners exceeded advancers within the S&P 500. This is the second longest run in 100 years and has only been exceeded by a run of 14 days in 1978. Quite remarkable really.

Also remarkable over the last week has been the rise in Broadcom which is fast approaching the Magnificent Seven in size. It passed $1tn market cap for the first time on Friday and surged +45.5% in the week to Monday night's close after very positively received earnings. Yesterday it saw a retracement of -3.91%, but at a market cap of $1.1tn it is about $400bn behind Tesla in 7th place in the Mag-7 largest to smallest list. So today I'm launching a competition to create a moniker for what might become a new group of eight. The best suggestions my team and I came up with yesterday were "The Great Eight", or "The Innov-eightors" or even "The Domin-eightors". Or if you want to be bearish "The Specul-eightors". All ideas welcome and I'll announce the best in the last EMR of the year on Friday.

The Mag-7 (+0.40%) outperformed again yesterday as the S&P 500 (-0.39%) slipped. The main index is still only less than 1% from its all time high but the equal weight S&P 500 (-0.75%) hit a 6-week low yesterday, it's 11th down day in 12, and marking its lowest closing level since the US election outcome was known. However, even this index is only -4.06% from its peak on November 29 so hardly a rout. We should add that Nvidia is now down -12.4% from its peak on November 7 and is trading back at levels first hit in June of this year. So essentially 6 months of range trading. And in a sign of the softening for traditional blue chip names, the Dow Jones (-0.61%) posted its ninth consecutive decline, which is again the longest such run since 1978. European equities also lost ground yesterday, as the Stoxx 600 fell -0.42%, with Spain’s IBEX (-1.62%), Italy’s FTSE MIB (-1.22%) and UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.81%) underperforming.

Moving onto the Fed, it is widely expected that they'll be another 25bp cut today, so the bigger question is what they’ll signal in their dot plot for next year, as there’s been speculation they could pivot in a more hawkish direction. Last time in September, the dots pointed to a further 100bps of cuts in 2025. But since then, the inflation prints have been a bit stronger than expected, so the consensus (and DB’s own forecasts) expect the FOMC to only pencil in 75bps of cuts for next year.

The risk that we actually go the other way is something we pointed out in our curveballs chartbook. 2024 is the third year in a row that markets have over-estimated the Fed’s dovishness. Indeed at the start of this year, futures were pricing in over 150bps of cuts for this year, but after today it looks as though we’ll only end up with 100bps. And when it comes to next year, our US economists think the same will likely happen again, as their baseline sees a much more hawkish path than the futures curve. They think that after today’s cut, a skip in early 2025 could turn into an extended pause, and they don’t see the Fed cutting rates at all next year. See their full preview for today’s meeting here.

Ahead of the meeting, US Treasuries were pretty stable yesterday, with the 10yr yield narrowly posting a 7th consecutive rise (+0.1bps to 4.40%). It had reached a 4-week intra-day high of 4.438% early on but then retreated as a few US data releases weren’t quite as robust as expected. For instance, industrial production was down -0.1% in November (vs. +0.3% expected), and capacity utilisation was down to 76.8% (vs. 77.3% expected). Admittedly, headline retail sales were up +0.7% (vs. +0.6% expected), but the measure excluding autos was only up +0.2% (vs. +0.4% expected). So with all that in hand, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 ticked down from an annualised rate of 3.29% to 3.14%.

Here in the UK, there were also some pretty significant moves after the latest wage data came out. They showed average weekly earnings up by +5.2% (vs. +4.6% expected), which led investors to dial back their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England. It also led to a pretty sizeable gilt selloff, with 10yr yields +8.2bps higher at 4.52%. Significantly, the spread of UK 10yr gilt yields over 10yr bunds closed at 230bps yesterday, surpassing the closing peak when Liz Truss was PM of 228bps, and reaching its highest level since 1990. In essence, the view from a market perspective is that UK inflation is at risk of proving stickier than in the US and the Euro Area, so the BoE likely won’t be able to cut as aggressively as the Fed or ECB, with investors now only expecting 53bps of cuts by the time of the November 2025 meeting. All eyes will now be on this morning’s CPI report from the UK, ahead of tomorrow’s BoE policy decision.

Elsewhere in Europe, there was some pretty mixed data out yesterday. In Germany for example, the Ifo’s business climate indicator was down to 84.7 in December (vs. 85.5 expected), which is the lowest since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic. But we also had the ZEW survey, where the expectations measure picked up to a 4-month high of 15.7 (vs. 6.9 expected). So there wasn’t an obvious steer for markets to trade off, although 10yr yields did end the day slightly lower, including for bunds (-1.7bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-1.5bps).

China risk is leading the way in Asia this morning with the Hang Seng (+1.27%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.98%) higher alongside the KOSPI (+1.30%). On the other side the Nikkei (-0.48%) is lower. S&P 500 (+0.11%) and Nasdaq (+0.07%) futures are trading slightly higher and 10yr USTs are -1.4bps lower at 4.385% as I type.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s exports continue to recover, rising +3.8% y/y in November (v/s +2.5% expected) as against an increase of +3.1% the previous month as weakness in the yen has helped exporters. Imports unexpectedly contracted -3.8% y/y in November (v/s +0.8% expected) as against an increase of +0.4% the previous month. As a result, Japan saw a trade deficit of -117.6 billion yen in November, smaller than the -687.9 billion yen forecast and compared to -461.2 billion last month.

Staying with Japan, Nissan and Honda two major Japanese automakers facing recent challenges, are in discussions regarding a potential merger. The companies released a statement confirming the talks but did not provide specifics about the potential deal or a timeline for completion. Nissan's shares have surged +23.7% following the announcement, the largest increase since at least 1974, while Honda's stock is -3.9% lower.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Fed’s latest policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Muller, Lane and Nagel. Otherwise, data releases include the UK CPI for November, along with US housing starts and building permits for November.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 08:30

Final Countdown: Slovakia Warns Of "Economic Damage" As Ukraine NatGas Transit Nears End

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has warned of financial turmoil and emphasized the urgent need to maintain Russian NatGas flows through Ukraine, as a NatGas transit agreement with Moscow is set to expire in the coming weeks.

Fico was quoted by Bloomberg on Wednseday, warning about the end of $525 million in transit fees per year it earns if Russian NatGas through Ukraine stops flowing. He said these fees are critical for state coffers. 

"Are we just going to let that pipeline dry up?" Fico said, adding, "In the name of what? Because you don't like the Russians? Fine, I like them."

On Tuesday, Slovakia's state-owned energy company SPP, the country's largest energy supplier, and its partners in Hungary, Italy, and Austria urged the continuation of Russian NatGas flows through Ukraine. 

"The declaration that we have prepared at SPP is intended to support the continuation of gas transportation through the territory of Ukraine and the preservation of its gas infrastructure, because it is the most advantageous solution not only for gas consumers in Europe, but also for Ukraine itself," said Vojtech Ferencz, Chairman of the Board and CEO of SPP.

CEO Ferencz warned: 

"The document is an important voice of business directly responsible for the energy security and economy of the region, which may suffer significant economic damage in the near future. We will submit the declaration to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen so that she has first-hand information about the threat to energy and economic security in our region."

"Using the example of the Slovak Republic, we can calculate that if gas from the east flows to our territory only partially or stops flowing completely, any other alternative will be significantly more expensive," SPP said. 

Ferencz added:

"If SPP, which has approximately a 65% share of our market, were to lose gas supplies from the east and we were to purchase the entire required volume from another source and physically transport it to Slovakia, it would cost us an additional 150 million euros. In the case of the entire Slovak market, it would be more than 220 million euros. The difference is mainly caused by transit fees, which will probably increase by next year, while their final amount is still unknown. At the same time, the interruption of natural gas supplies through Ukraine will naturally also result in an increase in its prices on wholesale markets. In addition, if a cold winter comes, this situation may cause a shortage of gas and problems with its supplies throughout Europe." 

SPP presented the document to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen so the Brussels bureaucrats would understand that their moves to shift entire European countries off cheap Russia NatGas would have severe economic consequences. 

We previously noted in early October that Russian NatGas transits to the EU via Ukrainian pipelines are set to expire on Dec. 31.

Local paper The Kyiv Independent noted, "Kyiv said it has no intention of prolonging the deal as Moscow continues to wage its all-out war."

The SPP CEO warned that halting the Russian NatGas flows will only send EU NatGas prices higher as winter in the Northern Hemisphere intensifies in January. 

Time is running out for Slovakia to avoid a pipeline halt. Bloomberg pointed out, "Several ideas have been floated to keep supplies coming, including with the help of intermediaries." 

Meanwhile, Europe's gas inventories are falling in line with a 15-year average this winter (read here). The halt next month could accelerate the drawdown in supplies across the continent, with a Goldman analyst forecasting storage levels dropping to 39% by the end of the heating season—well below this year's 53% mark. 

Goldman analyst Samantha Dart said the continent will still be able to refill inventories next summer, "but that requires a lot of things going right." 

Locked in a 33-month war with Russia, Ukraine has repeatedly said it will not extend the NatGas transit agreement. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 07:50

Full Jet Production At Boeing Resumes In Seattle Area After Strike Turmoil 

Just over a week after Boeing resumed production of its 737 Max aircraft at its Renton factory in Seattle, Washington, after strikes in early fall, the planemaker has returned to full jet production across all programs.

"We have now resumed production across our 737, 767, and 777/777X airplane programs," Stephanie Pope, the head of Boeing's commercial jet division, wrote in a post on LinkedIn on Tuesday night. 

Pope Said, "Our teammates have worked methodically to warm up our factories in the Pacific Northwest, using Boeing's Safety Management System to identify and address potential issues and ensure a safe and orderly restart." 

"In particular, we have taken time to ensure all manufacturing teammates are current on training and certifications, while positioning inventory at the optimal levels for smooth production," she continued. 

The resumption comes a little more than a week after Boeing restarted production of the 737, the planemaker's best-selling commercial jet. 

Two Max crashes, Covid travel downturn, supply chain snarls, financial challenges, and multiple Max jet incidents — including a door panel blowout on an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 — have been mounting headwinds for the struggling planemaker. On top of this, a seven-week strike sent the company to the brink of a devastating stall. 

Analysts at Jefferies recently forecasted that Boeing will likely average about 29 737 Max jets per month in 2025, falling far short of the company's pre-restriction goal of 56. Earlier this year, the FAA capped 737 Max production at 38 per month due to safety vulnerabilities within its Renton production line. 

The good news is that Boeing is under new leadership. Newly appointed CEO Kelly Ortberg is dismantling disastrous DEI initiatives and shifting the focus to safety as the era of wokeism comes to an abrupt end.

As of mid-November, Goldman's Noah Poponak and Anthony Valentini still had a "Buy" rating on the planemaker with a 12-month price target of $200.

"Our 12-month price target of $200 is derived from targeting a 4.5% free cash flow yield on 2026E free cash, discounted back one year at 12%. Key risks: (1) the pace of air traffic growth, (2) supply chain ability to ramp-up production, and (3) contract operating performance within the defense segment," the analysts said. 

Returning to output is critical for the cash-strapped planemaker. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 07:45

Senate Democrats Propose Constitutional Amendment To Abolish Electoral College

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

Senate Democrats proposed a constitutional amendment on Dec. 16 that would abolish the Electoral College and ensure the country’s presidential elections were determined by the popular vote.

“It is time to retire this 18th-century invention that disenfranchises millions of Americans,” Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said in a press release.

He and Sens. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.) proposed the legislation after another proposal emerged in the House last week.

“No one’s vote should count for more based on where they live,“ Schatz said in the press release. ”The Electoral College is outdated and it’s undemocratic. It’s time to end it.”

Article II of the Constitution establishes the Electoral College, which directs states to appoint electors for casting votes for president and vice president.

The practice has come under considerable criticism from Democrats such as Durbin, who noted in his press release that he tried to abolish the Electoral College in 2000.

“In all but five presidential elections, the winner of the election received the most votes,” the press release read. “Two of those five times came in the last 25 years, handing the presidency to candidates the majority of voters rejected.”

The release was referring to former President George W. Bush and candidate Donald Trump losing the popular vote in 2000 and 2016 respectively. In the most recent presidential election, Trump won 49.9 percent of the popular vote compared with Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48.4 percent.

Trump has both supported and criticized the Electoral College in social media posts. He said in 2012 that it was a “disaster for democracy” and in 2019 said he “realize[s] the Electoral College is far better.”

He said that the “brilliance of the Electoral College is that you must go to many States to win,” adding that without it, smaller states would lose power.

Eliminating the Electoral College via constitutional amendment would require state and national approval.

According to Article V of the Constitution, Congress can send the issue to the states after two-thirds of both the House and Senate approve an amendment. From there, three-fourths of the state Legislatures or state ratifying conventions must also approve.

The House legislation is a joint resolution with proposed text for a constitutional amendment. It reads in part: “The pair of candidates having the greatest number of votes for President and Vice President shall be elected.”

The bill clarifies that the change would be enacted following verification by three-fourths of state Legislatures.

The bill and amendment seem poised to fail with a Republican-dominated Congress next year.

In October, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) panned a call by his state’s governor to abolish the Electoral College.

McConnell said the Electoral College encourages candidates to travel to smaller states. “At its core, the Electoral College protects Americans from the whims of the majority, something I’m familiar with in the Senate. ... Without it, no presidential candidate would ever travel to a small state in Middle America, like Kentucky,” he said.

Senate Democrats’ press release on Dec. 16 noted that 17 states and the District of Columbia “have joined a national plan to bypass the Electoral College by agreeing to allocate its electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the nationwide popular vote.”

That seemed to be a reference to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which has seen legislative approvals from multiple typically blue states since 2007.

In September, Pew Research Center said that more than six in 10 Americans support the popular vote determining who the next president is. Only 35 percent favored retaining the Electoral College.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/18/2024 - 07:20