Zero Hedge

Blinken Working With Congress To Punish Hague-Based ICC

Blinken Working With Congress To Punish Hague-Based ICC

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday said he wanted to work with Congress on legislation to punish the International Criminal Court (ICC) for seeking arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Blinken was asked by Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing if he would support legislation to counter "the ICC sticking its nose in the business of countries that have an independent, legitimate democratic judicial system."

Blinken replied, "Given the events of yesterday, I think we have to look at the appropriate steps to take to deal with again, what is a profoundly wrongheaded decision."

The ICC was previously sanctioned by the US under the Trump administration for its plans to investigate alleged US war crimes in Afghanistan. The Biden administration reversed the sanctions, but the US pressure worked to get the court to announce the focus of its Afghanistan investigation would be on the Taliban and ISIS-K.

The ICC’s chief prosecutor announced warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on Monday for their role in the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, which implicates Blinken and other top US officials for supporting the onslaught. The ICC is also seeking warrants for Hamas leaders for the October 7 attack on southern Israel and the taking of hostages.

The State Department has said it would rather Israel kill Hamas leaders than have them face trial in The Hague.

"We absolutely believe that Hamas should be held accountable. That could either be through the prosecution of the war effort by Israel. It could be by being killed. It could be by being brought to justice in an Israeli court," said State Department spokesman Matt Miller.

The Biden administration is opposing the ICC efforts against Israeli and Hamas leaders despite backing its warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The US says the ICC doesn’t have jurisdiction to pursue Israeli leaders since Israel is not a member of the court, but neither is Russia and Ukraine. While not having full UN membership, the State of Palestine is a signatory to the Rome Statute, making it a member of the ICC.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 19:40

China Threatens 25% Car Tariff Against US, EU Moves - Trade Ties To Worsen In Coming Weeks

China Threatens 25% Car Tariff Against US, EU Moves - Trade Ties To Worsen In Coming Weeks

Beijing is still mulling its expected retaliation in the wake of last week's Biden administration rollout of steep tariff increases on a series of Chinese tech imports, importantly including computer chips, EV batteries and medical technology products.

Wednesday saw shares of European luxury automakers such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tata Motors (Jaguar Land Rover), and Volkswagen Group (Audi) all finish lower, in the aftermath of a threatening and ominous Chinese state-run Global Times article which argued China should "consider raising the temporary tariff rate on imported cars with large-displacement engines, in order to reduce imports as part of the country's broader efforts to cut emissions and promote the green development of the auto industry."

China has signaled it is ready to unleash tariffs as high as 25% - which would be a significant increase up from the current duty rate of 15%. Citing a Chinse industry insider, the GT piece blasted the 'protectionist moves' coming out of Washington and the West.

Chinese state owned SAIC Motor

Separately this week, in post on X, the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU (CCCEU) issued its own warning in an obviously coordinated messaging campaign, saying it was "informed by insiders that China may consider increasing temporary tariff rates on imported cars equipped with large-displacement engines."

"This potential action carries implications for European and US carmakers, particularly in light of recent developments such as Washington's announcement of tariff hikes on Chinese electric vehicles and Brussels' preparations for preliminary measures in a high-profile anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs," the chamber statement said.

As a reminder, this the text of the European Commission's opening an investigation back in October... it formally launched "an anti-subsidy investigation into the imports of battery electric vehicles (BEV) from China. The investigation will first determine whether BEV value chains in China benefit from illegal subsidisation and whether this subsidisation causes or threatens to cause economic injury to EU BEV producers."

The investigation under EC President Ursula von der Leyen aims to determine whether this violates the WTO anti-dumping agreement. The deadlines set out to potentially impose duties is July 4.

China is hitting back at both Europe and the US, as South China Morning Post observed:

Beijing has indicated that it won't take either gambit lying down. On Sunday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imports of polyoxymethylene copolymer - a chemical commonly used in automotive engineering - from the US, EU, Japan and Taiwan.

It has already started probing alleged dumping in the European brandy sector, seen to target France's cognac exports. Paris has been a strong supporter of a tougher EU trade policy towards China.

 

Amid predictions that trade conditions between China and the West are expected to worsen in the coming weeks, von der Leyen on Tuesday sought to downplay a trade war in remarks from Brussels.

"I don't think that we are in a trade war. I have the motto: 'de-risk not decouple', and I think here it's very clear we are in the category of de-risking from China. We have decoupled from Russia," she said.

China is set to be a central foreign policy talking point among both presidential campaigns going into November...

And here's what the Biden administration said during the last Tuesday unveiling of the new US tariff hike: "Today, I am following through on my commitment to stand up to the People’s Republic of China’s unfair trade practices by issuing a formal proposal to modify the tariff actions." US Trade Representative Katherine Tai further vowed, "The President and I will continue to fight for American workers, and for our economic future and national security."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 19:20

Bitcoin & The Wrong Lessons From Pizza Day

Bitcoin & The Wrong Lessons From Pizza Day

Authored by Jimmy Song via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The following is an excerpt on Bitcoin Pizza Day from "Fiat Ruins Everything" by Jimmy Song. Visit the Bitcoin Magazine Store to order a print, digital or audio copy of the book.

Pizza Day is often viewed with a sense of regret.

The well-known story goes like this: many years ago, Laszlo Hanyecz bought two Papa John’s pizzas, and in return, some fortunate person received 10,000 BTC.236 This tale resembles that of Peter Minuit purchasing Manhattan Island for a mere $24. It’s hard to believe such a transaction took place, considering the current value.

The story has several intriguing aspects. It marked the first real-world good or service purchased with Bitcoin. It also established Bitcoin’s price; since the two pizzas cost around $41, one BTC was approximately $0.0041.

Another aspect of this narrative is Laszlo, a pioneer in mining Bitcoin using GPUs (graphics processing units). He spent around 100,000 BTC on pizzas, as he made similar deals multiple times throughout the month. In a way, he’s the Santa Claus of this story, giving away value almost flippantly.

RENT-SEEKING FANTASIES

Pizza Day often triggers daydreams of becoming a Bitcoin billionaire through a single brilliant trade. Many people don’t fantasize about being Laszlo, as they aren’t GPU programming experts. However, they can easily imagine being the person on the bitcointalk forums offering to buy Bitcoin for a couple of pizzas.

The idea of having made such a trade sparks envy, as we all secretly resent the person who actually executed it. We perceive them as lucky, as if they had won the lottery.

These fantasies stem from a fiat mentality, where the value hierarchy is rooted in fiat money. The desire is to be lucky rather than skilled. People would prefer making money without working, versus earning it by providing valuable goods and services.

It’s revealing that the regret lies in missing out on luck rather than innovation. In a fiat-driven world, it’s easier to dream about being the person who sold the pizza, rather than the one who had the skill and foresight to mine with GPUs. This mindset prioritizes fiat accomplishments—getting lucky with money—over real achievements, which involve earning money by providing value to the market. Most people would rather ride the coattails of an innovator than be one themselves.

BITCOIN REGRET

We all have our Bitcoin regret stories. I remember learning about Bitcoin in February 2011. I tried to find a way to buy it using a credit card, but I couldn’t. I attempted mining on Amazon Web Services and didn’t find any blocks solo-mining for two days. I began the process of moving dollars into Mt. Gox, but when the price dropped from $1 to $0.90, I decided it was too much of a hassle to set up. I could have bought Bitcoin at $0.90, but I didn’t. It’s one of the biggest regrets of my life.

Everyone has different regret stories. Perhaps you heard about Bitcoin back in June 2011 when it ran up to $30 and regret not buying it then. Maybe you discovered Bitcoin in April 2013 when it reached $266, or later that year in December 2013 when it soared to $1,100. Or perhaps it was in 2017 when it hit $2,500, $5,000, and then $19,000. Or even more recently, in March 2020 when Bitcoin crashed to under $4,000, or later that year when it was breaking $10,000. Anyone who’s heard about Bitcoin at any point in its history has a regret story.

Bitcoin regret stories are like bad-beat stories in poker. Everyone has them, and they are fantasies about different, luckier outcomes. They are unproductive stories because the feelings of regret come from a fantasy that assumes virtues that are not common.

THE CHALLENGE OF HOLDING

In these regret stories, we often overlook something. What if we had bought Bitcoin when we first heard about it? How would we have handled the subsequent challenges? Would we have had the diamond hands to hold through the 85% drawdowns in 2011, 2013, 2014, and 2018?

When you fantasize about the Pizza Day story, do you ever consider the difficulty of holding during the tough times in 2011, 2013, 2014, and 2018? There’s a tendency to assume that we would have had the conviction that we possess now, like how a time traveler might feel. I’ve experienced those drawdowns firsthand, and let me tell you, most people didn’t have that conviction, and they sold. Many believe they would have held strong through all the difficult times, but like the original O.J. Simpson verdict, that assumption goes against all evidence.

Holding 10,000 BTC wasn’t uncommon back in 2010. Many people had a significant amount of Bitcoin because they were worth pennies at the time, but where are they now? Most of them sold when the Bitcoin price doubled or tripled and never looked back.238 They viewed Bitcoin as a plaything and didn’t grasp its revolutionary nature. So, they sold it to buy a new computer, a new bike, or a new car.

SHATTERING YOUR DREAMS

Had you sold Laszlo two pizzas for 10,000 BTC in 2010, you probably would have sold them in the new few years. To think otherwise is hubris. Most people back then didn’t understand what Bitcoin was, and there were no educational resources explaining why you should hold. We now have an abundance of resources for understanding Bitcoin.239 In 2023, it’s much easier to comprehend that Bitcoin is a better form of money than anything that came before. Back in 2010, it was much more difficult. Do you still think you would have had diamond hands?

To hold Bitcoin is to have a deep conviction about what it is. There are necessary virtues to be a long-term holder. Holders understand the fundamental value of Bitcoin being sound money and can thus withstand the 85% drawdowns that occur regularly. Only the truly extraordinary managed to hold from 2010, and you likely would not have been one of those people.

But suppose you beat the odds and had conviction. You held through 2011 and even the first bubble in 2013. Would you have had the foresight to withdraw to your wallet before Mt. Gox collapsed in 2013?240 Or if you used another exchange before then, would you have gotten out before they exit-scammed?241 We say “not your keys, not your coins” now, but back then, this was not common practice. Many people had to be burned for that lesson to become a meme. Even with conviction, there’s a good chance you would have been one of the many who suffered.

There were also other dangers, like the advent of altcoins starting in 2011. How many Bitcoins would you have lost in Geistgeld,242 Feathercoin,243 and MasterCoin?244 There were also numerous scams, including Pirate40245 and others who promised high returns by running Ponzi schemes. Would you have avoided those? There were also several ASIC startups that sold machines that weren’t built yet. Would you have avoided getting duped by Butterfly Labs246 or TerraMiner?247 How about the cloud mining services248 that took your Bitcoin and paid out only a fraction over the next 12 months? Would you have avoided these tempting offers that ended up diminishing many Bitcoin stacks? You would have needed the instinct to get in on Bitcoin early while not falling for these similar-sounding investments, which frankly is not an easy needle to thread.

Looking back on those dangers, it’s a miracle that people made it past those years with any Bitcoin at all. Many OGs are like Vietnam veterans, reflecting on the times when they were fortunate to escape the numerous hazards.

BUILDING CONVICTION IS CHALLENGING

Developing deep conviction is not easy, and for early adopters, it was especially difficult. Remember, everyone was calling Bitcoin a scam back then. Even now, it takes years of study and unwavering resolve to develop that conviction. Back in 2010-2013, having Bitcoin conviction was as rare as a physically-fit government health official.

Going against conventional wisdom and following your convictions requires a great deal of courage, which many people lack. Consider what happened during COVID-19. How many people had the conviction to voice opinions against the mainstream narrative in March 2020? That’s the level of conviction you had to possess to hold Bitcoin through those early years.

In 2023, we have numerous resources that help us save in Bitcoin. Podcasts, books, and videos are available to help us navigate this space, not only to develop the conviction but also to adopt best practices for holding. The early years were a minefield of traps to lose your Bitcoin. It’s much easier these days to avoid those traps, but back then, there weren’t OGs who could warn you about them. The resources that exist now and the Bitcoin memes we have today (“Not your keys, not your coins.”) are not propaganda. They are the fruit of hard-earned experience.

BITCOIN DERANGEMENT

Studying the early individuals in the Bitcoin space reveals a troubling pattern. Almost every non-technical Bitcoin advocate pre-2013 is now promoting an altcoin. Why have so many early adopters become Bitcoin-deranged?

We can find some answers by looking at the fiat world of lottery winners. Years after winning, numerous lottery winners end up worse off than before they won the lottery. They are ill-equipped to manage the windfall, and many find themselves with greater debt, damaged relationships, and a worse life. Some even commit suicide. While not everyone experiences such negative outcomes, enough do that many lottery agencies proactively offer assistance.

Unfortunately, bad outcomes have been the fate of many early Bitcoin adopters. At some point in the last decade, they either fell victim to scams or became scammers themselves. As a result, many of them have turned against Bitcoin.

So, to further shatter your daydream, there’s a good chance that if you had gotten in early, you would be an altcoin scammer or would have been scammed by an altcoin. These are serial scammers with no qualms about lying, cheating, or stealing their way to wealth. They exist in a rent-seeking nightmare of shattered dreams. That’s not a desirable fate, and it’s something I wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy.

LEVEL UP YOUR CONVICTIONS

For many, Pizza Day is an opportunity to indulge in time-traveling fantasies where they daydream about being wealthy. This mindset often leads people to explore altcoins, as it stems from the fiat money mentality. Essentially, Pizza Day is a fantasy about being lucky and not having to work. In other words, it represents a rent-seeking desire on a grand scale.

Fiat money has fostered a consumerist mentality, which exacerbates the urge to rent seek. Governments capitalize on this desire through lotteries, profiting from the allure of easy wealth. Altcoins exploit the same yearning. Unfortunately, Pizza Day often reinforces this mentality, focusing on the desire to be fortunate rather than skilled.

Instead, Pizza Day should serve as a reminder that forming conviction is no easy task. True conviction demands knowledge, wisdom, and courage—virtues that require time, energy, and effort to develop. Rather than envying early adopters and fantasizing about joining their ranks, we should strive to cultivate the conviction needed to hold through challenging times and provide value in the process. As the saying goes in the Bitcoin community, “It’s still early.”

On Pizza Day, commit to leveling up your convictions.

TEN THINGS YOU BOUGHT INSTEAD OF BITCOIN

- 1- 

That sleek, irresistible Apple gadget you just had to have, only to replace it two years later with an even shinier, more irresistible version.

- 2 -

Green gems in Clash of Clans, because clearly, the defense of your virtual village was of greater importance than securing your financial future.

- 3 -

A college degree with about as much relevance to your current job as a penguin waddling through the Sahara Desert.

- 4 -

Litecoin, the less secure, less functional cousin of Bitcoin— because who needs the real deal when you can settle for something much worse?

- 5 -

A dating app subscription that merely solidified your status as forever alone.

- 6 -

Steam games on sale, eagerly awaiting their debut in your library, wondering when they’ll finally bask in the glow of your screen.

- 7 -

That exercise equipment now serving as an exquisite clothes rack, because let’s face it, the allure of the couch is simply too strong to resist.

- 8 -

An online class you signed up for, attended just long enough to say “hello” and “goodbye,” then promptly ghosted.

- 9 -

The, uh, “adult entertainment” that left you feeling deflated and questioning your life choices the next day.

- 10 -

An MLM product from a Facebook friend that you abandoned quicker than you can say “pyramid scheme.”

*  *  *

Click here to order a copy of "Fiat Ruins Everything: How Our Financial System is Rigged and How Bitcoin Fixes It", by Jimmy Song.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 19:00

Bipartisan Calls Grow For Ukraine To Hit Russian Territory With US Arms

Bipartisan Calls Grow For Ukraine To Hit Russian Territory With US Arms

Officials in the US are growing more vocal in making the case for allowing Ukraine to use Washington-supplied weaponry to attack Russian territory.

On Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson came out with a full-throated statement expressing support for such a move which would certainly risk bringing NATO and Russian into more direct conflict. Biden's Secretary of State Antony Blinken is also said to be on board with a policy change.

US Army image

Johnson was asked by Voice of America if he supported a scenario where Ukraine forces attack Russian soil utilizing American weapons. He responded by saying that the US needs "to allow Ukraine to prosecute the war in the way they see fit."

"They [Ukraine] need[s] to be able to fight back. And I think us trying to micromanage the effort there is not a good policy for us," he said.

Ukrainian parliament member Oleksandra Ustinova was among a delegation from Kiev that was in Washington days ago in order to lobby US lawmakers for a change in policy. The Biden administration has long communicated a strict ban on pro-Kiev forces attacking Russia with American arms.

Watch Johnson sign off on Ukraine using US weapons to attack inside Russian territory:

"Realizing that we do not have the right to use, for instance, HIMARS [rocket launchers] on the territory of Russia, the Russians display all their equipment along the border and use it to destroy the Kharkiv region," Ustinova has been cited as saying. "And we simply cannot get to them, because there’s a ban on the usage of American weapons on the territory of Russia."

In Kharkiv oblast in particular, Russia earlier this month launched a new major offensive to push the border 10km deep into Ukrainian territory, with the stated aim of establishing a buffer zone to make it harder for Ukrainian artillery to reach Russian settlements across the border.

The Biden White House has yet to give in to the intensified lobbying campaign to loosen restrictions on US weaponry, on a public level at least.

On Monday a group of House lawmakers from both parties issued a formal letter urging the lifting of any restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons.

"It is essential the Biden administration allows Ukraine’s military leaders to conduct a full spectrum of operations necessary to respond to Russia’s unprovoked attack on their sovereign land," the letter said.

At this point President Zelensky is going so far as to request that NATO directly intercept and shootdown Russian missiles sent against Ukrainian cities. Indeed the messaging and requests are growing more desperate, given Ukraine forces are being rapidly beaten back in places like Kharkiv.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 18:40

"Dangerous Racial Gerrymandering" - White House Fumes As Supreme Court Backs GOP's New South Carolina Congressional Map

"Dangerous Racial Gerrymandering" - White House Fumes As Supreme Court Backs GOP's New South Carolina Congressional Map

The U.S. Supreme Court on May 23 ruled in favor of South Carolina’s redrawn congressional map, reversing a lower court decision.

The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) challenged the map, arguing legislators were motivated by race when drawing district lines and committed “intentional racial discrimination.”

As Zachary Stieber reports via The Epoch Times, a panel of federal judges in 2023 said that “race predominated over all other factors” when legislators redrew South Carolina’s First Congressional District, currently represented by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). The finding was based in part on the movement of more than 30,000 black voters to a different district.

To show that race was the predominant factor motivating legislators who are redrawing districts, plaintiffs challenging a new map must prove the state elevated race above other factors, such as contiguity, according to court precedent.

The judges who handed down the earlier ruling “clearly erred” because the challengers did not provide such proof, Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the majority, said.

The challengers “provided no direct evidence of a racial gerrymander, and their circumstantial evidence is very weak,” he wrote. “Instead, the challengers relied on deeply flawed expert reports.”

Justice Alito, an appointee of former President George W. Bush, was joined by Justice John Roberts, another appointee of President Bush, and Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett, all appointees of former President Donald Trump.

Justice Thomas, another appointee of President Bush, wrote in an opinion, concurring in part.

Justice Elena Kagan, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, filed a dissent. She was joined by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, another appointee of President Obama, and Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, an appointee of President Joe Biden.

The panel that entered the 2023 ruling consisted of U.S. District Judges Mary Geiger Lewis and Richard Gergel, both appointees of President Obama; and U.S. Circuit Judge Toby Heytens, an appointee of President Biden.

The new map, created after the receipt of data from the 2020 census, was enacted in 2022.

“We’re always going to have concerns about elections but I think the Supreme Court was clear. They examined the question and they followed the law,” South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, a Republican who signed the updated map, told reporters at an unrelated briefing. “I have not read it, but I know about it, and I think they made the right decision.”

South Carolina Senate President Thomas Alexander, another Republican defendant in the case, did not respond to a request for comment.

“Today, the Supreme Court has failed the American people. Voting rights have taken another gut punch, and the future of democracy in South Carolina is dangling by a thread,” Brenda Murphy, president of the South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP said in a statement.

South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District includes over half of the state’s coast and parts of Charleston. It has a population of about 762,000.

Republicans won elections in the district for decades starting in the 1980s. Former Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.) upended that trend in the 2018 election. After one term, he was unseated by Ms. Mace.

Ms. Mace won with 50.6 percent of the vote in 2020 and in 2022 earned another term with 56.3 percent of the vote.

Justice Alito also criticized the lower court judges for not finding challengers at fault for their failure to provide an alternative map showing how legislators could have achieved their “legitimate political objectives” while producing “significantly greater racial balance.”

The majority also said they found similar errors in the lower court’s finding that legislators intentionally diluted the votes of black people, because that finding was based on the same facts that underpinned the analysis of the racial gerrymandering claim.

Justices remanded the portion of the case relating to vote dilution back to the district court, with guidance on how to analyze dilution allegations.

Justice Thomas said in his opinion that he agreed with most of Justice Alito’s opinion but that he does not think the Supreme Court has the power to decide claims of racial gerrymandering.

“Drawing political districts is a task for politicians, not federal judges. There are no judicially manageable standards for resolving claims about districting, and, regardless, the Constitution commits those issues exclusively to the political branches,” he wrote.

Justice Kagan said in her dissent that reversing factfinding about redistricting can only be done if a “clear error” is found, citing a previous ruling. “This court must give a district court’s view of events ’significant deference,‘ which means we must uphold it so long as it is ’plausible,'” she wrote. “Under that standard, South Carolina should now have to redraw District 1.”

The Supreme Court earlier this year ruled that Louisiana needed to use a congressional map with two black-majority districts in the upcoming election. The three justices appointed by Democrats dissented in that order as well.

In 2023, the nation’s top court struck down Alabama’s redrawn map, finding it was racially discriminatory in violation of the Voting Rights Act.

The White House was quick to issue a statement condemning The Supreme Court's decision:

The right to vote is the foundation of American democracy.  Key to that right is ensuring that voters pick their elected officials — not the other way around. The Supreme Court’s decision today undermines the basic principle that voting practices should not discriminate on account of race and that is wrong.

This decision threatens South Carolinians’ ability to have their voices heard at the ballot box, and the districting plan the Court upheld is part of a dangerous pattern of racial gerrymandering efforts from Republican elected officials to dilute the will of Black voters. Vice President Harris and I are ironclad in our commitment to protecting the sacred right to vote, and we will not stop fighting until Congress passes both the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act to restore and strengthen the Voting Rights Act, and the Freedom to Vote Act to ensure fair Congressional maps for all Americans.

Given the demise of Biden's share of the black vote, maybe this actually did him a favor?

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 18:20

SEC Approves Spot Ether ETFs In Major Crypto Victory

SEC Approves Spot Ether ETFs In Major Crypto Victory

What until just a few days ago was viewed as an extremely low-probability event, has just come true, when the highly politicized Securities and Exchange Commission, headed by Liz Warren's soon to be terminated lackey Gary Gensler, has - against its desires - been forced again to approve no less than eight crypto ETFs, this time for spot Ethereum, following what was reportedly urgent political intervention from the White House.

Following relentless pushback which prompted Bloomberg's ETF expert Eric Balchunas to give a spot ETH ETF only 25% odds of approval, in the first-of-its-kind blessing, the SEC signed off on a proposal by venues run by Cboe, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange to list products tied to the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency. The move removes a key hurdle for spot Ether ETF trading in the US.

Issuers now need a separate sign-off from the regulator, and no deadline has been set for that decision. In other words, as Bloomberg's James Seyffart explains, today's approval does not mean ethereum ETFs will begin trading tomorrow: this is just 19b-4 approval. Now the SEC will need to approve the S-1 documents which is going to take time: "We’re expecting it to take a couple weeks but could take longer. Should know more within a week or so"

Ahead of the approval, SEC boss Gary Gensler had been cryptic on his views over whether Ether is a security, stoking concerns that the agency was hardening its stance. Others, such as this website, duly noted that in the grand scheme of things it is not what Gary Gensler or "Senator Karen" want, but rather only the wishes of Larry Fink...

... and JPMorgan matter...

... And while crypto enthusiasts said they were worried about Gensler trying to subject Ether — and various other projects based on the Ethereum blockchain — to the agency’s arbitrary, capricious, and onerous investor-protection rules, claiming that Ether is in fact a security despite claiming previously that it is not, the recent sharp policy stance reversal driven by an abrupt change in the political climate, revealed that the only thing that decides whether something is a security or not, is a phone call from the White House which is trailing Donald Trump in the polls by double digits.

Which is why, as recently as last week, companies were banking the SEC would reject the Cboe plan — and potentially others — by Thursday’s deadline. Additional SEC approval is still needed for the issuers, but the signoff is a huge victory for the industry, and especially those who held on to Ether since January, which continued to sink mercilessly even as bitcoin soared.

Backers hope a listing will bring a new flood of money to the asset class by appealing to retail and institutional investors, who are interested in crypto but more comfortable investing in ETFs than tokens.

Overall, investors, many who retreated after FTX exchange’s collapse, have already been piling back into crypto. Ether, the native token of the Ethereum blockchain, is up more than 60% this year alone thanks to the frenzy. And, as both Goldman and Bernstein have noted, the upside for Ether is likely far greater than that of bitcoin in the long run.

Full report available to pro subscribers

Some of Ether's recent rally is also due to optimism that the US crackdown on the industry - led by such congressional knucle-draggers as Elizabeth Warren - is finally waning. The Republican-led House on Wednesday advanced sweeping cryptocurrency legislation despite opposition from the White House and Gensler. Although the Senate isn’t expected to approve the measure, it also garnered notable Democratic support in the House.

On the jurisdictional question, Lee Reiners, policy director of the Duke Financial Economics Center at Duke University, said that exchange bids to list the products were based on Ether being a commodity and not a security. An SEC decision to green light the plan bolsters the view that the SEC still considers Ether not to be a security, he said. Investment companies seeking to list the products have already been making concessions to win SEC approval.

Fidelity Investments said it will keep Ether it buys as part of the ETF out of programs that pay rewards for blockchain maintenance, known as staking. The latter has been a hot-button issue for Ether because it raises questions about whether the token should be treated as a security. Last year, the SEC in a lawsuit accused Coinbase Global Inc. of breaking its rules by offering staking services.

And so, we now wait for the various ETH ETF issuers to make adjustments for today's latest clarifications and to get S1 approval imminently which will finally greenlight trading; indeed, VanEck which was the first to apply for a spot Ether ETF wasted no time in filing an amendment to their S-1 filing.

And speaking of Van Eck, here is what the head of the company's digital asset research team, Matthew Sigel published seconds after the ETF approval:

We are so thrilled to confirm that the SEC has approved, pursuant to Section 19(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, our exchange partner CBOE’s proposed rule change to list and trade a @vaneck_us
 spot #Ethereum ETF on the CBOE!

TLDR: We expect the improved political backdrop will lead to further victories for digital asset investors & developers, via new laws & in the courts, that draw investment to #Bitcoin, Ethereum and other open-source blockchain software.

We applaud this decision, as we believe the evidence clearly shows that #ETH is a decentralized commodity, not a security.  ETH’s status as a commodity has now been recognized in a variety of circumstances, including the CFTC's regulation of ETH futures, public statements by Commission officials, rulings by federal courts, and now, hopefully, this ETF.

The high degree of correlation between ETH spot prices and CME Ethereum futures prices, similar to the correlation seen with Bitcoin, proved that the spot ETH market is tightly linked to the regulated futures market. This tight linkage supports the listing of spot ETH ETFs, as it allows for the market surveillance the SEC requires. Additionally, the presence of liquid, regulated ETH futures trading on the CME and the approval of ETFs tracking those futures demonstrated to all neutral observers that Ethereum meets the same criteria as Bitcoin for an ETF holding the spot asset. The SEC approved the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs based on these exact criteria, and we have long believed that Ethereum warrants the same treatment.

Any claim that Ethereum's move to proof-of-stake has turned it into a security, or that staking itself is a securities transaction is misguided and harmful to innovation. Proof-of-stake is simply an alternative consensus mechanism to proof-of-work mining - it does not fundamentally alter Ethereum's decentralized nature or transform ETH into a security issued by a central entity. Since the DAO hack in 2016, Ethereum has become highly decentralized, with no centralized issuer or promoter controlling a material supply or percentage of validators. The Ethereum Foundation's ETH holdings have steadily declined to just 0.30% of the circulating supply, and Vitalik Buterin holds around 0.23%. This widespread distribution of ETH contradicts the idea of it being a security issued by a common enterprise.

We have also heard arguments that Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) was a securities transaction. This misunderstands the decentralized nature of Ethereum’s governance. Ethereum’s transition to PoS was driven by social consensus, involving broad community discussions, transparent development processes, and voting mechanisms within a decentralized network. This contrasts sharply with traditional financial systems, where decisions are made by centralized entities or a small group of registered stakeholders. Changes in Ethereum are proposed through Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), debated publicly, and adopted only with widespread community support, ensuring no central authority controls the network. This decentralized, community-driven process highlights that Ethereum remains a decentralized commodity, not a security, as its evolution reflects the collective agreement of its diverse global participants.
 
As the UK Prime Minister on this topic just recently said: “We are pro-open source. Open-source drives innovation. It creates start-ups. It creates communities. There must be a very high bar for any restrictions on open source.”

Many traditional finance market participants may not fully understand that ETH is not just a speculative asset but has extensive real-world utility underpinning a vibrant decentralized application ecosystem. Ethereum supports over 270 million unique user addresses and processes an average of 1.2 million transactions daily. On-chain value settlements exceeded $2.8 trillion over the last year, compared to global remittances of $860B, PayPal volumes of $1.5 trillion, and Visa network volume of $15 trillion. Ethereum boasts a robust developer community, with more than 2,300 monthly active developers contributing to 113,000 distinct Githib repositories. Thanks to the network effects from this decentralized community, Ethereum has become the foundational layer for a vast ecosystem of over 3,000 applications, including financial services, games and collectibles. Its smart contract functionality enables automated lending/borrowing, decentralized exchanges, NFT marketplaces, play-to-earn games, and tokenization of real-world assets. Major companies like Reddit, Ubisoft, Nike, and Visa have launched Ethereum-based projects. Regulating Ethereum NFTs differently from physical collectibles like baseball cards or Rolex watches is often absurd - both represent unique digital/physical scarcity and ownership. A Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT and a rare 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle rookie card can serve similar purposes as status symbols and stores of value. But governance structures like those enabled by Ethereum underpin much of the innovation happening in open-source databases, including real-world asset tokenization. Stifling this utility through misguided regulation would hamper technological progress and drive those talented entrepreneurs overseas.

The situation has been made even more confusing by the inconsistent stances taken by different U.S. regulators. While the SEC has recently declined to clarify ETH’s status, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) allowed Ether futures products to trade as commodities. The Chairman of the CFTC has stated repeatedly under oath that ETH is a commodity. Even the SEC's own guidance has stated that a digital asset may transition away from being a security as it becomes sufficiently decentralized over time, though critical details are lacking. Adding to the contradictions, just last week the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York unveiled an indictment that referred to Ethereum as a "decentralized" blockchain. Needless to say, this regulatory discord has fostered harmful uncertainty and, contrary to the SEC's mandate of capital formation, has inflicted a lot of pain in the market.

That’s why today feels particularly sweet to VanEck, the first traditional ETF issuer to file for both Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs. It is so encouraging to observe the growing bipartisan support for digital assets in DC, reflecting widespread voter input, & culminating in today's ETF news and this week's congressional repeal of SAB 121, an accounting rule hostile to crypto that was enacted through unorthodox means.

We expect this improved political backdrop will lead to further victories via new laws and in the courts that draw investment to Bitcoin, Ethereum and other open-source blockchain software.

Stay tuned for further updates.

PS - we expect to go FIRST.

After tumbling just after the close because someone was stupid enough to assume that since there was no approval by 4:00:00pm it means the SEC won't bless the ETF, Ethere was last trading just above $3,800...

... and rapidly approaching its YTD high just above $4,000, from where it will proceed to move much higher in the coming months.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 17:58

Current PLA Drills Around Taiwan Are Bigger In Scope Than Exercises Triggered By Pelosi

Current PLA Drills Around Taiwan Are Bigger In Scope Than Exercises Triggered By Pelosi

As part of China's two days of encircling drills around Taiwan, its military has dispatched about 30 aircraft toward the island Thursday, most of which crossed the Median Line in the Taiwan Strait. About a dozen PLA naval ships have also surrounded the self-ruled island, and in response Taiwan's military has deployed warships to monitor the situation.

An additional dozen Chinese coast guard ships have been spotted close to Taiwan's disputed outlying islands as well, according to Taipei officials. PLA Naval Colonel Li Xi has called the exercises "a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces and a serious warning against interference and provocation by external forces."

Illustrative: prior PLA drills, via Reuters

As we reported previously, the large-scale drills are were launched just days after Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, was sworn into office at the start of the week. Beijing has called Lai a "dangerous separatist" who will ensure future "war and decline" for the island of Taiwan, which China has long claimed as its own.

CNN has cited Chinese state television to describe:

As part of the drills, dozens of Chinese fighter jets carrying live ammunition conducted mock strikes against “high-value military targets” of the “enemy” alongside destroyers, frigates and missile speedboats, according to China’s state broadcaster CCTV.

...China’s state broadcaster CCTV said multiple destroyer and frigate formations of the Eastern Theater Command Navy “maneuvered at high speed in multiple directions in the waters surrounding Taiwan, creating an omnidirectional approach in pushing toward the island.”

Dozens of fighter jets were also seen near the outlying islands which include Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin in the East China Sea.

China's CCTV broadcaster further detailed of the drills, "Under the support and cover of the Army and the Rocket Force, multiple types of aircraft were organized and loaded with live ammunition, flew to the predetermined airspace to establish multiple strike positions, and coordinated with destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats to simulate attacking the ‘enemy’s’ high-value military targets and reconnaissance and patrol aircraft."

Regional analyst Arnaud Bertrand says that these ongoing two-day exercises are actually bigger in scale and scope compared to those which ensued in August 2022, in reaction to then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's ultra-provocative visit to Taiwan. His words follow below the maps:

Before: What the 2022 PLA 'encircling' drills in response to Nancy Pelosi's visit looked like...

Via CGTN

Currently: The expanse of the ongoing Thurs-Fri PLA military drills surrounding Taiwan...

These are major military exercises by China around Taiwan, with more "exclusion zones" that are larger in scale than the exercises triggered by Pelosi's visit and closer to the island.

They are basically demonstrating that they can completely blockade the islands, with the zones placed in front of Taiwan's biggest ports (like Kaohsiung to the South, where a lot of Taiwan's navy is, or Hualien to the East), as well as protect the mainland at the same time. It's not a sign of imminent war, simply a reaction to Lai's presidential inauguration speech where he hinted at significant changes to the status quo towards independence, so much so that even the Financial Times ran an article saying that "China has a point" when they were warning about Lai's intention to change the status quo.

This is China telling him "don't get any ideas".

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 17:20

"Absurd!" - DOJ Sues Ticketmaster's Owner, Alleging Monopoly Over Live Events Industry

"Absurd!" - DOJ Sues Ticketmaster's Owner, Alleging Monopoly Over Live Events Industry

Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced at a press conference Thursday morning that the federal government has filed a federal anti-trust lawsuit against Ticketmaster’s parent company to break up its monopoly on U.S. concert ticket sales.

Mr. Garland said the government is joined by 29 states in its lawsuit against Live Nation Entertainment, the parent company of Ticketmaster.

“In recent years, Live Nation-Ticketmaster’s exorbitant fees and technological failures have been criticized by fans and artists alike,” said Mr. Garland.

“But we are not here today because Live Nation-Ticketmaster’s conduct is inconvenient or frustrating. We are here because as we allege that conduct is anti-competitive and illegal.”

Mr. Garland said during the press conference that Live Nation “suffocates its competition.”

“Our complaint makes clear what happens when a monopolist dedicates its resources to entrenching its monopoly power and insulating itself from competition,” said Mr. Garland.

Mr. Garland said Ticketmaster controls more than 70 percent of concert ticket sales and that it locks out competition by using long-term contracts, some lasting more than a decade, and then adds on what he called a “seemingly endless list of fees.”

“Those include ticketing fees, service fees, convenience fees, platinum fees, price master fees per order fees, handling fees, and payment processing fees, among others.”

The lawsuit follows a DOJ investigation into the practices of the ticket-seller after a class action lawsuit was filed last year by fans of Taylor Swift against Ticketmaster and Live Nation after they were unable to obtain tickets to the pop star’s “The Eras Tour.”

In the lawsuit, they alleged that the ticket sales had such a giant monopoly over ticket sales, and that when Ticketmaster’s website crashed due to high demand, they were unable to obtain tickets to the concert.

Ms. Swift responded by calling the situation “excruciating.” Ticketmaster issued an apology over the debacle and the lawsuit was dropped last August.

Mr. Garland and other DOJ officials also accused Live Nation-Ticketmaster of monopolizing the ticket sale industry by buying up venues, small ticket sellers, and threatening venues that use ticket sale options to Ticketmaster.

“Today’s lawsuit by the Justice Department’s antitrust division is an enormous step forward in preventing one company from dictating the ebbs and flows of an entire industry,” said Deputy

Attorney General Lisa Monaco also spoke at the press conference.

She said the lawsuit was a step forward for fans and all artists, but for budding musicians a chance to “compete for the biggest shows.”

Live Nation Responds

Live Nation called the federal government’s claims “absurd” in a lengthy statement it posted on its website in response to the anti-trust lawsuit.

“The defining feature of a monopolist is monopoly profits derived from monopoly pricing,” the company said. “Live Nation in no way fits the profile.”

In its statement, multinational agency Live Nation said that Ticketmaster services charges are no higher than what other sellers charge and that Ticketmaster’s fees are often “frequently lower.”

The company also said in its statement that the lawsuit mislays blame on Live Nation and Ticketmaster as the cause of “fan frustration” over rising ticket prices when the actual source is increasing production costs and artist popularity. It also blamed ticket scalping, which it said “reveals the public’s willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost.”

In suggesting there was a political stake in the anti-trust lawsuit, Live Nation also said that the Obama administration “saw it differently” by approving the 2010 merger of Live Nation and Ticketmaster and acknowledging there was no legal basis to challenge the merge.

“The world is a better place because of that merger, not a worse one,” Live Nation said.

During the press conference, in emphasizing a need to make the live entertainment industry more accessible to both artists and fans, Mr. Garland talked about a Bonnie Raitt concert he attended when he was a college senior.

He said he had the opportunity to witness “the future of rock and roll” when Bruce Springsteen opened the concert as the warm-up band. Springsteen went on to become an icon in the music industry.

“The Justice Department filed this lawsuit on behalf of fans who should be able to go to concerts without a monopoly standing in their way,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 17:00

'I Did Delete All Of Peter's Emails Relating To Origin': COVID Cabal Conspired To Destroy Evidence To Evade FOIA Requests

'I Did Delete All Of Peter's Emails Relating To Origin': COVID Cabal Conspired To Destroy Evidence To Evade FOIA Requests

A new trove of emails released by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic reveal that top researchers involved in manipulating bat coronaviruses to better-infect humans then conspired to delete email evidence of their communications surrounding the Covid-19 outbreak.

Peter Daszak, David Morens, Peter Hotez

The communications focus on top NIH adviser Dr. David Morens, who solicited help from the NIH's Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) office to dodge records requests. Morens is currently on administrative leave.

"Evidence in possession of the Select Subcommittee suggests that Dr. Morens, while employed by NIAID and NIH acted as an agent on behalf of a federal grantee, EcoHealth," the Subcommittee notes. "Morens began assisting Dr. Daszak in how to respond to NIH compliance efforts," the release continues - referring to EcoHealth Alliance boss Peter Daszak, whose organization was suspended this month from receiving federal funds for three years.

"i learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after I am foia’d but before the search starts," Morens wrote in a Feb. 24, 2021 email to an unknown recipient, adding "Plus i deleted most of those earlier emails after sending them to gmail."

In another email, Morens claims that "With the help of our IT folks, I went over the whole computer and phone situation... Basically, my gmail is safe from FOIA."

"Please pass this on to Peter and I ask you both that NOTHING gets sent to me except to my gmail."

Morens also emailed Daszak, advising him: "We are all smart enough to know never to have smoking guns, and if we did we wouldn't put them in emails and if we found them we'd delete them."

And in another email to Peter Hotez, Morens writes: "The email somehow fell into the hands of the Congressman, probably via FOIA of someone who didn't delete it, as I did (delete all of Peter's emails and others relating to origin) when the shit started hitting the fan."

Meanwhile, Morens joked about getting a kickback from EcoHealth, to which Daszak replied jokingly: "of course there's a kickback. It starts with 5 more years of FoIA requests ... I just hope it doesn't culminate in 5 years in Federal jail, or even Chinese 're-education camp'...

According to Diane Cutler, an ex-investigator for the US Department of Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General, "He has violated the ethical standards of conduct for executive branch employees and has potentially violated criminal law," she said, referring to Morens, the NY Post reports.

Both Republicans and Democrats on the panel were united in their denunciations of Morens.

“The information contained in these 30,000 pages of emails are deeply concerning, and in my opinion reflects poorly upon Dr. Morens and the Office of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease under Dr. Fauci’s leadership and the NIH under Dr. Francis Collins,” Subcommittee chairman Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) said in his opening remarks.

“Dr. Fauci’s NIAID was unfortunately less pristine than so many, including the media, would have had us all believe,” he added.

Ranking member Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) echoed Wenstrup’s remarks in calling Morens’ behavior was “deeply troubling” — but cautioned the emails were “not a breakthrough moment in actually understanding the actual origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.” -NY Post

Now what?

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 16:40

Garland's Ultimate Test Of Principle: Will DOJ Send The Hunter Biden Perjury Allegations To A Grand Jury?

Garland's Ultimate Test Of Principle: Will DOJ Send The Hunter Biden Perjury Allegations To A Grand Jury?

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Attorney General Merrick Garland has long maintained that he is a completely apolitical figure who only follows the law. Critics have challenged that claim on key cases, including those related to Hunter Biden. However, Garland may now face one of the clearest tests of his claim in his tenure. The House committees have issued a public report alleging three different instances where Hunter Biden allegedly committed perjury. The question is now what Garland is prepared to do about it.

When Hunter testified, I wrote columns suggesting that he might take the Fifth Amendment to remain silent because the risk was too great that he might lie or mislead investigators in his answers. With months of preparation, he decided to run the gauntlet and now appears to have exposed himself to the possibility of additional criminal charges.

Hunter Biden has still not responded to the specific allegations, but on their face they appear strong. Notably, the Justice Department spent considerable time and money to pursue false statements against figures like Michael Flynn over just one statement describing a meeting with Russian diplomats. These are instances where Hunter was under oath, prepared for months, and had counsel present.

One of the instances concerns the controversial WhatsApp message where Hunter not only threatened a Chinese businessman to send him massive amounts of money but said that his father was sitting next to him at the time. Millions were later sent to the Bidens. The infamous WhatsApp message stated in part:

“I am sitting here with my father and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled. Tell the director that I would like to resolve this now before it gets out of hand, and now means tonight. And, Z, if I get a call or text from anyone involved in this other than you, Zhang, or the chairman, I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father.”

The response of Hunter to questions about the message was curious and evasive. Hunter said that he had only two things to say about that message. He denied that his father was sitting next to him despite saying that he had no memory of sending the message.  Second, and most importantly, he stated “the Zhao that this is sent to is not the Zhao connected to CEFC” who “had no understanding or even remotely knew what the hell I was even Goddamn talking about.”

The Committee staff maintains that Biden’s WhatsApp account show that he only ever communicated with one Zhao – Raymond Zhao – and that he most certainly did not what he was “talking about.”

Another alleged lie was Hunter’s denial that he ever helped people associated with Burisma secure visas.

He told Congress that he was unwilling to provide “any work as it related to visas that they needed” and that he would “never pick up the phone and call anybody for a visa.” The Committee has produced an email showing Hunter’s associate Devon Archer concerning the revoking of Burisma CEO Nikolay Zlochevsky’s visa. It states that “Hunter is checking with Miguel Aleman to see if he can provide cover to Kola on the visa…Please send Hunter an email with all Kola’s passport and visa documents and evidence and copy me. We’ll take it from there.”

Hunter also swore that he had no part in shell companies that received foreign payments.

Yet, Archer testified that he and Hunter had equal stake in Rosemont Seneca Bohai and the Committee has evidence from the IRS whistleblowers showing that Hunter received benefits as owner of the entity’s associated bank account.

The most damning evidence may be a document reading: “I, Robert Hunter Biden, hereby certify that I am the duly elected, qualified and acting Secretary of Rosemont Seneca Bohai, LLC.”

He used that document as part of his contract with Porsche Financial Services for a sports car.

That would seem pretty clear and well-founded allegations for a referral to the Justice Department. After fast-tracking false statement claims against Trump officials, the question is whether Garland will even submit the matter to a grand jury. He could also give the matter to the Special Counsel prosecuting Hunter.

Ordinarily, a prosecutor pursuing a defendant in two different felony cases would jump at any alleged illegality. You would not want to stand between him and a grand jury. However, Special Counsel David Weiss has been accused of minimizing charges against the President’s son and attempting to push through a notorious sweetheart deal that collapsed in court.

Now Garland faces an unavoidable choice in treating this referral as he did Trump cases (in sending this to a grand jury) or scuttling alleged perjury made by the son of the President before Congress.

It is far less challenging legally than it is politically for Merrick Garland.

If the rule of law still governs at the Justice Department, Hunter Biden could be facing a third front in his ongoing legal struggles.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 16:20

NVDA Tops $2.5 Trillion As Traders Sell Everything Else On 'Good News'

NVDA Tops $2.5 Trillion As Traders Sell Everything Else On 'Good News'

NVDA smashed earnings and guidance out of the park and shares exploded over 10% higher...

... to make the AI-darling above $2.5 trillion market cap for the first time...

Source: Bloomberg

With around a 1% decline in US stocks, total US market cap fell by around $500 billion, while NVDA alone added $230 billion...

Source: Bloomberg

For everyone else there was more great news about the American economy... US PMIs surged to two year highs proving Bidenomics is awesome (though input prices surged), and jobless claims remain near record lows. New home sales were weak but the market chose to ignore that.

BUT... just as the dismal dump in soft data recently has prompted buying panics across stocks and commodities (on Fed cut hopes)... so the 'good news' today sparked a very bad no good response from markets with rate-cut expectations tumbling further. The market is now pricing in just  chance of two rate cuts this year and has reduced 2025's expectations to three more cuts only...

Source: Bloomberg

And so while NVDA was charging to ever more impressive highs, everything else shit the bed with stocks down hard, oil & gold tanking, crypto clubbed like a baby seal, bonds battered, and only the USDollar managed gains, recovering from overnight weakness.

Small Caps and The Dow were the biggest losers on the day with the latter hit by Boeing's breakdown. Despite NVDA's surge, Nasdaq and S&P were down significantly too...

Small Caps fell back to (and found support at) the 50-DMA today (all the other majors are extended well above their 50DMAs)...

Boeing shaved almost 100pts off The Dow today but all 30 components were red...

'Most Shorted' stocks continue to trend lower as short-squeezes have run out of ammo...

Source: Bloomberg

Magnificent 7 stocks ripped higher out of the gate (thanks to NVDA) but by the close had given it all back...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were up across the board with the short-end a slight laggard (2Y +6bps, 30Y +4bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rebounded off overnight lows to end higher...

Source: Bloomberg

But gold was slammed lower once again...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin hit $70,000 and was immediately dumped...

Source: Bloomberg

But, Ethereum held on to gains as hopes for approval of the ETH ETFs rises...

Source: Bloomberg

With ETH/BTC soaring...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices flip-flopped to end at three-month lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, to clarify, the market is in 'Upside-Down World' still where good (macro) news is bad (market) news and vice versa...

Source: Bloomberg

But don't forget that inflation indicators just keep surprising to the upside (and now growth is getting a pump)...

Source: Bloomberg

Hardly an obvious scenario for rate-cutting... but then again, it is an election year and Biden is down bigly...

Source: Bloomberg

...so anything goes for the apolitical Fed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 16:00

143 Democrats Voted Against Bill Barring Non-Americans Voting In DC Elections

143 Democrats Voted Against Bill Barring Non-Americans Voting In DC Elections

The GOP-led House passed a bill with bipartisan support on Thursday to prevent noncitizens from voting in local Washington, DC, elections. This is a further push for election integrity by Republicans at a time when radicals in the Biden administration have facilitated the greatest illegal alien invasion this nation has ever seen. The latest government data shows ten million migrants have invaded the country through the open southern border. Predictably, the majority of Democrats opposed the bill.

Fifty-two Democrats joined 210 Republicans in favor of bill HR 192, while 143 Democrats opposed.

The bill bars noncitizens from voting in "an election for public office in the District of Columbia or in any ballot initiative or referendum in the District of Columbia." Federal law already prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal-level elections.

Republicans blasted the local law this week, arguing that noncitizens should not participate in local elections in the nation's capital. 

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) released a statement on X that said "radical policy" from local DC politicians is "anti-American and dilutes the constitutional rights of DC residents." 

Here's what other politicians are saying:

It's utterly absurd that a majority of Democrats voted against HR 192. Now you understand why radicals in the White House have flooded the nation with millions of illegals. This lawless behavior is a move to steal elections. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 15:45

If CEOs Are Right, Things Can Only Get Better For US Earnings' But...

If CEOs Are Right, Things Can Only Get Better For US Earnings' But...

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

After Nvidia’s earnings beat on Wednesday, rising CEO confidence points to a general increase in US earnings growth. How long it lasts, though, depends on how much more the economic cycle has left in the tank.

You may have heard there’s going to be a UK election soon. When Rishi Sunak made the announcement outside Downing Street, D Ream’s 1990s’ pop-synth hit Things Can Only Get Better echoed in the background. Based on survey data, US CEOs might be bopping along to the same tune. CEO confidence has been rising, which often means earnings soon follow suit.

EPS growth for the S&P 500 has been flat, and if CEO confidence isn’t misplaced, it should soon start to rise. That’s even more the case, as when CEOs are upbeat stock buybacks tend to rise too, reducing the share count and providing another EPS tailwind.

Nvidia and other firms’ earnings began to inflect higher last summer, but earnings more broadly should start to pick up too. Relationships in the economy operate with lags, so the re-acceleration in the cycle about six-to-nine months ago is expected to start to feed through more broadly around now.

An increase in earnings growth should be baked in the cake. How long it lasts is another question. The new orders-to-inventory ratio in the ISM, i.e. whether purchasing managers are expecting to accumulate inventory or will have to produce more to keep up with orders, has been falling and has slipped below one.

If sustained, it shows that earnings could be disappointing expectations by early next year.

The chart below shows the ISM ratio leads the difference between EPS and forward EPS one year ago, by about nine months.

Near-term recession risk remains low for now, although that could change quickly. That means that things can only get better for earnings growth in the coming months, but not for too long.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 15:05

War Cabinet Approves Resumption Of Truce Talks As Israeli Forces Plunge Deeper Into Rafah

War Cabinet Approves Resumption Of Truce Talks As Israeli Forces Plunge Deeper Into Rafah

Facing immense pressure at home and internationally, the Netanyahu government said Thursday that Israel's war cabinet has approved the resumption of indirect truce and prisoner talks with Hamas.

Israel media says that the country's negotiating team has been issued directives to seek a breakthrough in talks to get the hostages back. The announcement comes the day after families of the hostages released a harrowing video of several female IDF troops being abducted and held on Oct.7. The families are hoping the footage puts their cause back in the spotlight, so that the government will prioritize their return.

Getty Images

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a new statement confirming a team has been ordered to "continue negotiations for the return of the hostages."

Prior rounds of failed talks broke down especially over the Hamas side's insistence that Israel's military completely withdraws from the Gaza Strip as a result of a ceasefire. The war cabinet has reportedly reached compromise on what it intends to push for in Qatar and Egypt-mediated talks, but details have not been revealed:

At the meeting, IDF Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon, who is one of the negotiators, presented an updated plan after a previous proposal was shot down on Saturday night by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Kan public broadcaster reported.

A source told Kan that the team did not get everything it asked for "but at least progress can be made."

Some anti-Netanyahu activists have charged that this is really all just a show in to deflect from global criticism of the ongoing ground assault in Rafah, further coming days after the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and his defense chief.

Large demonstrations have continued in Tel Aviv, with protesters chanting "Let's bring them home" - in reference to the remaining hostages - while alleging "the government gave up". According to a description in Times of Israel:

In Tel Aviv, protesters lit bonfires in the street, blocking traffic in both directions. Some participants dressed as bound and bloodied female soldiers, a reference to concerns that the captives are being sexually assaulted while in captivity. During the Hamas assault on the country, terrorists committed widespread atrocities including gang rape.

Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is a hostage, said “This evening is a hostage night” after the release of the video showing the soldiers whom, she charged, have been abandoned by the state.

Heavy fighting has meanwhile continued in the south, with reports of 30 IDF soldiers wounded in the last two days in the Gaza Strip, some seriously. Israel's military spokesman has released a fresh English-language statement emphasizing that the troops are in Rafah in order to liberate the captives from 'barbaric' Hamas...

Hamas has issued videos this week showing at least three IDF soldiers taken out by sniper fire. The army faces a significant insurgency which is utilizing a vast tunnel network to strike in small teams.

Al Jazeera summarizes of some recent developments:

  • The Israeli army intensify its assault on Rafah as the International Court of Justice says it will rule on Friday on a request by South Africa to order Israel to implement a ceasefire in Gaza, including in the southern city.
  • Israeli forces kill 12 Palestinians in two-day raid on Jenin, in the occupied West Bank.
  • UN says displaced “families living among the rubble” after more than 800,000 Palestinians flee Rafah as Israeli forces attack.

According to more of the latest eyewitness reports via Reuters, "Residents and militants said tanks had taken up new positions on Wednesday further west than before along the southern border fence with Egypt, and were now stationed on the edge of the Yibna neighbourhood at the centre of Rafah. They had not yet entered the district as fighting had been intense."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 14:45

White House Makes Nine Corrections To Transcript Of Biden's NAACP Speech

White House Makes Nine Corrections To Transcript Of Biden's NAACP Speech

Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

On Monday, the White House was forced to make nine different corrections on the transcript of Joe Biden’s speech to the NAACP...

As Fox News reports, Biden made multiple mistakes during his speech which reflected his increased age and cognitive decline.

Among other errors, Biden incorrectly stated that he was Vice President when the Chinese Coronavirus pandemic began, and further claimed that Obama gave him instructions on how to combat the pandemic; Donald Trump was President when the COVID pandemic began, and Mike Pence was Vice President at the time.

“When I was vice president, things were kind of bad during the pandemic,” said Biden.

“And, what happened was Barack [Obama] said to me: ‘Go to Detroit — help fix it.’”

The transcript was altered to say “recession” instead of “pandemic,” hinting that Biden was referring to the 2009 economic recession at the beginning of Obama’s first term.

Thus, the transcript now reads:

“And when I was vice president, things were kind of bad during the pandemic [recession], and what happened was Barack said to me, ‘Go to Detroit and help fix it.’ Well, poor mayor, he spent more time with me than he ever thought he was going to have to.”

Biden also claimed that the Affordable Care Act, colloquially known as “Obamacare,” saw American families save $800,000 a year.

He also said that he was fighting against corporate landlords who are “keeping rents down.”

He erroneously referred to the group hosting him as “the NAAC.”

Furthermore, Biden mispronounced words such as “inspiring” and “insurrectionists,” instead saying “inspiresing” and “erectionists.”

In a statement following the correction, Acting Deputy Press Secretary Sam Michel ignored the mistakes and simply said that “we’re focused on the substance of the transcript and the heart of President Biden’s speech.”

Biden’s numerous gaffes since taking office have drawn even greater scrutiny to the 81-year-old president, the oldest Commander-in-Chief in American history.

His mistakes have ranged from calling out to recently-deceased members of Congress during speeches, repeating instructions on teleprompters that were not meant to be spoken aloud, and outright false statements regarding his career and his personal history.

His apparent senility has become a top issue in the looming general election campaign against former President Donald Trump.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 14:25

Iran, China, India, Pakistan And Turkey: Military-Aged Men Making Global Run For Biden's Open Border

Iran, China, India, Pakistan And Turkey: Military-Aged Men Making Global Run For Biden's Open Border

With migrants now rushing to cross into the United States in case Trump wins the November election, Fox News' Bill Melugin brings us disturbing footage from Jacumba, California - where he interviewed a group of military-aged men hailing from various parts of the world. Notably, not one of them was from Mexico, Central America or South America.

Watch:

A Turkish man told Melugin that he paid $10,000 to a cartel and was shocked at how easy it was to cross into the US with no resistance, adding that Americans should be "worried."

"American people is right, completely true," the man said. "Who comes into this country? They don't know. Okay, I'm good, but how if they're not good? How if they're killers, psychopath, else? No guarantee of that. Like, no security check, no background check."

The men told Melugin that they tried going through the legal process to enter the US but were rejected multiple times for visas, so they decided to do it illegally.

Melugin notes that "Border Patrol here stretched thin, agents nearby are dealing with another group."

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 14:00

The Great Pandemic Walkback

The Great Pandemic Walkback

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The pattern is now clearly established. Major figures in and around the pandemic response are slowly walking back all the major claims surrounding the global compulsory regime that ruled life for two and a half years. And each statement is pointing to the same reality. The critics were correct all along. Yes, the very people whose social media accounts were throttled and banned for spreading supposed disinformation.

Consider the statement by Dr. Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). His tenure there overlapped with the beginning of the lockdowns but he always seemed out of his element, outrun and overwhelmed by the bureaucratic miasma that washed through the agency at the time.

He has always tried to be a team player but you can sense his bitterness today. He knows the power of his words and is choosing them carefully now. In the past, he has said decisively that the idea that the pathogen was a gain-of-function lab leak was indeed possible. He was never a great enthusiast for the vaccine, even making a video in 2020 in which he said that a homemade mask might be more effective.

In other words, he was never on board with the whole plan. He was even excluded from meeting with Fauci/Birx and company.

Now he has come out and said what many people said from the beginning. He says that healthy people under the age of 60 never really needed the shots, and, further, that the injuries from the shots are high and must be recognized and acknowledged. True, this is information that everyone who has kept up already knows. What’s significant is the source.

“Those of us that tried to suggest there may be significant side effects from vaccines ... we kind of got canceled because no one wanted to talk about the potential that there was a problem from the vaccines, because they were afraid that that would cause people not to want to get vaccinated,” Dr. Redfield said.

He still thinks that the shots should be credited for saving “a lot” of lives, though that research is much in dispute. What’s remarkable is to have the former head of the CDC openly putting down the idea that healthy adults and children did not need these shots. They are included in the childhood schedule now and mandates still pervade academia and U.S. policy for citizenship. Clearly the pharma industry pushing these products remains more powerful than even former heads of the top agency in charge.

In addition, in compelling testimony, former head of the National Institutes for Health Francis Collins has admitted that there never was any science behind social distancing. The rule of six feet of distance, which sounds innocuous, masks a totalitarian ambition. It was the reason for the school closures since there was no way to practice it. It was why there were no gatherings. It was why businesses had to be only half-full or closed. It was the reason for the crazy dance everyone was doing for nearly two years. Even now, you sometimes encounter people who jump out of the way when a human is near.

There was never any science to it. We knew that from the very outset. The notion seems to have emerged out of a middle school science model based on the childhood game of Cooties, an imaginary virus that boys said girls had and girls said boys had. It was that dumb and yet it governed our lives.

Actually, there was a long science behind all forms of physical distancing. The research had been accumulating for 15 years in randomized controlled trials of physical interventions to interrupt virus spread. The overwhelming evidence was that they made no difference at all. That was the scientific orthodoxy going into 2020.

Still, they went ahead with devastating results. Gyms had to close—for the good of health. In New Jersey, Governor Phil Murphy issued some 80 edicts for business closures. Those edicts have only now been completely overturned as unconstitutional and unjust, and all penalties assigned to violators have been reversed. This is hugely important news but essentially four years too late.

As for the damages done by the shots, the vaccine makers were indemnified by law against paying for any harms they caused. So there is no question of any liability on their part. The pharma companies say that if they had to be held responsible for damages that they could never make any vaccines. That claim alone should raise alarm bells. In a market economy under the rule of law, makers of products bear responsibility for harms caused by their use. Pharma should be no different especially with a product imposed by force on most of the population.

In addition, there is a real question of fraud against which the shot makers are not indemnified. Those claims are now in litigation. We shall see how they end up. No question that public opinion has dramatically turned against all the expert advice and mandates of this period of our history. It is more likely than ever that judges will test out the power of the judiciary by putting a solid stop on the power of the administrative state, at least in the United States.

In addition, we are seeing the Cuomo brothers (former N.Y. Governor Andrew and former CNN commentator Chris) attempting to walk back everything they did and said. Andrew is now frequently saying that all the mandates of the period were in fact completely unenforceable. This claim is completely wrong: the police roamed the streets in those days to ticket people for not distancing and shutting down businesses for not selling food with their drinks (as if that was going to achieve anything in terms of stopping the virus). Meanwhile, Chris has outed himself as being vaccine-injured and inviting ever more dissidents on his show on News Nation.

Now to the burning question. If all the evidence was clear that none of this could control a virus, and if even the vaccine trials were revealing high injury and a lack of effectiveness of the shots, why did they go ahead with the crazy experiment in the first place?

Here is where we have to get into some speculation. Having studied and written about all of this for four years, and looking even at the prevailing pandemic plans for the future, it’s my considered opinion that the whole protocol was designed for one purpose. The intention from the beginning was to preserve the immunological naivete of the whole population for as long as possible so that the vaccines could come to the rescue and save the population. In other words, everything they did, from closures to forced separation and masks, was designed to stop the emergence of natural immunity.

Does that sound crazy and conspiratorial to you? Maybe but I urge you to think about it. They had from February 2020 to December of that year, helpfully timed with an election they could force to be swung by mail-in ballots, to keep seroprevalence levels in the population as low as possible. That’s why there was such a wild frenzy to stop anyone in the population from catching so much as a cold. The idea was to pitch the shot based on new technology as the savior of humanity.

Can I absolutely prove that theory? Not really, not yet. But it makes sense of all existing facts, and it also makes sense of why they attempted so many cockamamie strategies even though they would not likely work. It was the best they had and they were quite desperate to make sure that the shots and the shots alone would save the day. It’s also why the World Health Organization changed the definition of herd immunity from including exposure to become exclusively a product of vaccines.

The plan was pretty far-flung but there were three major problems.

  • First, people quickly realized that the bug was nowhere near as serious as they made it out to be. Many people got the thing, felt rough for a few days, and shook it off. Such is life.

  • Second, people got exposed and thus obtained immunity anyway. There was nothing that could be done about that.

  • Third, and devastatingly, the shots did not work as intended. They didn’t stop infection and they didn’t stop the spread. Plus they caused enormous harm.

If there was a conspiracy, then, it flopped.

This is the scenario that I believe is waiting to be unearthed. It will be in time. The elites that were in charge are right now simply trying to delay the day as long as possible, while admitting as little as possible in the meantime. For this reason, the gradual walkback is going to take many years in the hopes that once people find out the real agenda, the intensity of public outrage will have died down as much as possible. Then the whole episode can fade into the woodwork of the history of our times.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 13:40

TD Bank Fires More Than A Dozen After Anti-Money-Laundering Failings, Says Report

TD Bank Fires More Than A Dozen After Anti-Money-Laundering Failings, Says Report

The anti-money-laundering scandal at Toronto-Dominion Bank, currently under investigation by the US Justice Department, has sparked an internal reorganization at the Canadian bank, leading to the termination of over a dozen employees. 

According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, citing a source familiar with the situation, the employees were fired for failing to maintain the bank's anti-money-laundering standards.

The person said action was taken against certain leadership in the anti-money laundering function and people working in US bank branches who were found to have breached TD's internal code of conduct, which employees agree to each year. Some employees were fired as criminal charges were brought against them. Other disciplinary steps were imposed on staff where the bank determined there were minor infringements, the person added. -WSJ 

At an investor conference earlier today, following TD's financial results for the second quarter, President and Chief Executive Bharat Masrani said an internal investigation into the failings has progressed. He said the bank had fired employees responsible for the failings. Neither the source nor the bank released further details about the exact number of firings and or names of the fired workers. 

"We have significantly strengthened the leadership of our US anti-money-laundering function," bank spokeswoman Elizabeth Goldenshtein said, adding the bank has brought in top talent with experience transforming and leading anti-money-laundering programs to ensure this lapse never happens again. 

Earlier this month, WSJ revealed a Justice Department investigation into TD Bank's internal controls focused on how Chinese drug gangs used the bank to launder money from US fentanyl sales. The bank set aside $450 million to resolve one of those inquiries and expects more penalties. 

Following the earnings report, Bloomberg Intelligence's Paul Gulberg and Ethan Kaye pointed out that the $450 million reserve for an anti-money laundering probe could exceed that amount as it only addresses negotiations with one regulator. 

TD Bank's Canada-listed shares moved lower by 1.3% in the session, down 7% since WSJ's report on the DoJ probe earlier this month

"Criminals are regularly targeting financial institutions and, in these cases, TD did not effectively thwart their activity. This is unacceptable. TD has been cooperating closely with the authorities to help them prosecute these criminals," Masrani said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 13:20

CNN Sees Lowest Primetime Ratings In Three Decades

CNN Sees Lowest Primetime Ratings In Three Decades

Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

The cable news channel CNN has suffered its lowest primetime ratings since 1991, in yet another indication that traditional television news coverage, as well as increasingly left-wing media, has taken a massive hit to its viewership in recent years.

As reported by the New York Post, the week of May 13th through May 19th saw the channel’s 8 PM to 11 PM programming draw just 83,000 viewers in the most crucial demographic of viewers between the ages of 25 and 54.

In that same time period, Fox News saw over 186,000 viewers in the same demographic and the same time slots.

MSNBC came in second with 111,000 viewers.

CNN’s 8-11 PM programming consists of Anderson Cooper’s “AC360” at 8 PM, followed by “The Source with Kaitlan Collins” at 9 PM, and concluding with “CNN NewsNight,” hosted by Abby Phillip, at 10 PM.

The channel’s overall weekly performance saw just 494,000.

By contrast, Fox News saw over 2 million in the same week, while MSNBC saw 1.1 million viewers, according to Nielsen Ratings.

The horrendous performance has put CNN’s new boss Mark Thompson under even greater scrutiny, as well as the CEO of CNN’s parent company Discovery, David Zaslav.

“Thompson better get his act together before he completely destroys CNN,” said one anonymous TV news producer.

“It seems like he’s thrown in the towel regarding cable.”

Since becoming CEO of Discovery, Zaslav first attempted to turn around CNN’s decline by hiring Chris Licht to run the network; Licht left after just 13 months in his position, where he was succeeded by Thompson. Thompson left the primetime lineup unchanged, while instead attempting to revamp the morning lineup.

“Zaslav went to a programmer in Licht,” said an anonymous producer.

“Now he went to a guy that doesn’t know how to program TV.”

Nevertheless, a spokesman for CNN tried to spin the numbers as positive for the network, claiming that the channel’s primetime ratings are “all growing year over year” among the target 25-54 bloc. The spokesman further claimed that if the 7 PM program of “Erin Burnett Outfront” is added to the primetime lineup, alongside the rebroadcast of Anderson Cooper’s show at midnight, then CNN is “registering double-digit, year-over-year growth” in its ratings.

“CNN’s new name is Canceled Network Now,” said an anonymous media insider. “Young people are as interested in Anderson Cooper as they are in Liza Minnelli.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 13:00

Ranking Trump's Vice-Presidential Options

Ranking Trump's Vice-Presidential Options

Authored by Sean Trende via RealClearPolitics,

Playing the Veepstakes guessing game is often a losing one for analysts. Vice-presidential selection is ultimately a highly personal choice, and it is simply too difficult to venture into the mind of one individual and mimic their thought process. Perhaps more importantly, Republican presidential nominees haven’t made the obvious choice for vice president since Ronald Reagan chose George Bush in 1980. Dan Quayle, Jack Kemp, Dick Cheney, Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan, and even Mike Pence were all somewhat “out-of-left-field” selections for their respective presidential candidates.

It is tempting to say that the journey into the mind of a presidential candidate is particularly likely to become a failed venture when that candidate is Donald Trump. This doesn’t give Trump enough credit. Picking Mike Pence in 2016 was, in retrospect, an inspired choice and probably helped win him the presidency. In this regard, at least, his 2016 campaign was surprisingly normal.

Nonetheless, the goal isn’t to predict who Trump’s pick will be. Instead we’ll rank the prospective candidates by who would do the most good for the Republican ticket. There are a number of potential candidates not listed here. Ben Carson, Elise Stefanik, Tom Cotton, or Ron DeSantis come to mind (and Kristi Noem until about three weeks ago), and Trump really could pick someone completely out of the blue. But let’s look at the potential running mates who have gotten the most buzz of late:

10. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

First, Haley certainly isn’t showing much interest in the job. A vice-presidential candidate should, at a minimum, have endorsed the presidential candidate. There’s a universe where this is the Republican dream ticket, but relations between Haley and Trump have deteriorated so much that Trump risks looking weak or desperate were he to pick her. Probably a net negative at this point.

9. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Sanders’ pros are threefold: She is a female governor, she served in the Trump administration, and she is supportive of Trump. Beyond that, she brings little to the table.

8. Sen. J.D. Vance, Ohio.

Vance might have made sense for Trump’s 2016 campaign, when he was trying to build a coalition by tearing away blue-collar voters from Obama’s 2012 win. But if Trump is trying to shore up the blue-collar vote in 2024, he’s in trouble. He needs to make gains elsewhere. Also Vance’s 2022 win in Ohio was fairly unimpressive, so even if he needs to win by those voters for some reason, it isn’t clear that Vance is the ticket.

7. Former Hawai’i Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard.

This is one I go back and forth on. Ultimately, I think Gabbard probably has too many liberal votes dating from her almost-decade in Congress. Check out her scorecard from the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List, for one. That didn’t stop George H.W. Bush from being chosen in 1980, but this isn’t 1980 anymore. She’s an outside-the-box pick for a campaign that, at least right now, doesn’t have to think outside the box.

6. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

On paper, Scott makes sense. Trump is hoping to add non-white voters to his coalition, and the first black Senator from the South since Reconstruction seems like he would not hurt. But Scott underwhelmed in the debates and lacks the executive experience that some of the other possibilities bring to the table.

5. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

Four of my top five picks are governors, and this isn’t accidental. Probably the two most important things Trump’s pick would do are: (a) reassure suburban voters that this will be a serious administration, rather than the at-times chaos-filled farrago that was Trump’s first term; and (b) give the various wings of the Republican Party confidence that when Trump leaves in 2029 he’ll leave the GOP in capable hands. Abbott has been a reasonably successful governor of the nation’s second-largest state for a decade now. His experience with the immigration issue will also help highlight a top theme of the Trump campaign for the election.

4. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Reynolds is a lot like Sanders or Vance in that she doesn’t bring a lot immediately to the table, electorally speaking – as Trump is already counting on carrying Iowa, Arkansas, and Ohio, respectively. What she does bring, though, is eight years of executive experience (14 if you count her time as lieutenant governor.) It also doesn’t hurt that she’s from a state that borders the state likely to be electoral vote number 270 for one candidate or another (Wisconsin). A serious midwestern governor who could be a serious president one day, and who doesn’t turn off one faction or another of the GOP coalition, is a pretty solid veep resume.

3. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Yes, yes, I know. Burgum has Interior Secretary written all over him. But boring and safe worked for Trump in 2016, and for reassuring wavering GOP suburbanites that Trump is serious about governing in 2025, he could do a lot worse. Although Burgum certainly looks the part, he has a history that is to the left of what we would expect from a modern Republican candidate – but not so far to the left that it would cause some of the problems that a Tulsi Gabbard pick might cause.

2. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Imagine Burgum, but make him a little more charismatic, and give him minor GOP celebrity status. That gives you Youngkin. If Trump is serious in believing that Virginia is in play this time around, he might add some interesting electoral math as well. If I had to make a pick about who I thought Trump would choose, this is probably who I’d come up with.

1. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

Yes, one of them would probably have to change his residence (c’mon, Trump owns property everywhere). Yes, there’s some bad blood from 2016 still. But Rubio makes so much sense. He takes Florida off the board (to the extent that it isn’t already) and probably ices Nevada and Arizona as well. He might put New Mexico into play. He’s reassuring to suburbanites, and beloved of anti-anti-Trump Republicans. He sounded Trumpian themes on working class woes before Trump. The only downside is the address thing, and even if neither wanted to declare residency elsewhere (much easier today than in 1789) the worst-case scenario would be that the vice-presidential election would go to the Senate, which Republicans probably control if Trump wins the presidency.

*  *  *

Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and author of The Lost Majority. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter @SeanTrende.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 12:20

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