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Fill 'er Up: Record Armada Of Tankers Bound For US Gulf To Load Oil

Fill 'er Up: Record Armada Of Tankers Bound For US Gulf To Load Oil

An unusually large number of crude oil tankers on the open seas has the American Gulf coast as a destination as the ships are redirected to load cargoes bound for markets around the world already experiencing shortages.

As Alton Wallace writes at The Center Square, second-term Republican President Donald Trump said Saturday on social media that “massive numbers” of “completely empty” oil tankers are en route to the United States to purchase American energy.

“Foreign buyers are voting with their ships: American energy means stability, strength, and freedom from Middle East blackmail,” the president posted on Monday.

Shipping data posted by maritime intelligence company Windward shows 171 crude tankers are bound for the U.S. Gulf to load crude oil cargoes, which compares with about 110 in a typical month.

The surging vessel traffic comes as nations throughout Europe and Asia grapple to secure energy supplies and regional prices skyrocket. Germany is providing emergency fuel relief to its citizens while officials in the Philippines recently declared a national energy emergency as the world looks increasingly to the U.S. to replenish war-starved oil and gas markets.

"Hundreds of supertankers, the kind that carry two million barrels each, are currently racing toward the US Gulf Coast from every direction, Atlantic, Indian Ocean, around Africa, the scenic route, the 'we were heading to Saudi Arabia but never mind' route," Jesús Enrique Rosas noted this weekend.

Oil markets research firm Kpler estimates U.S. crude oil exports in April will reach 5.2 million barrels per day, up about one-third from 3.9 million barrels a day in March, the Financial Times reported last week.

North Carolina-based Kpler analyst Matt Smith described the great volume of incoming ships as an “armada of tankers heading this way.”

Trump on Saturday remarked that the U.S. oil output is more than the combined total of Saudi Arabia and Russia, the next two largest producers, and the president promised a “quick turnaround” for the arriving fleet.

Shipping data shows approximately 28 very large crude carriers, which can hold about 2 million barrels of oil, have been contracted to load U.S. crude in May compared to a monthly average of just five in a typical month, according to Kpler.

Trump shared a post on Saturday by oil market researcher Rory Johnston that read “very cool seeing the wave of empty tankers heading to the U.S. to pick up some desperately needed crude for Hormuz-starved markets,” to which the president responded, “Great!!!”

"The more Iran leans on Hormuz, the faster global energy flows reroute around it. Over time, that erodes Tehran’s leverage and cuts into its long-term power," Osint613 posted Sunday.

America and Israel on Feb. 28 launched military strikes against Iran. The Iranians, with control of the Strait of Hormuz, has stymied an otherwise one-sided confrontation. An 11th-hour ceasefire to last two weeks was announced Tuesday.

As the shipping logjam continues, Windward’s daily intelligence report on Monday shows 732 vessels carrying oil, gas, refined fuels, and other fossil fuels-based products await transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

To avoid the volatile region, many of these vessels are now rounding the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa – a detour that bypasses the Suez Canal but adds up to 15 days of travel time to reach American docks.

In March, Port of Houston officials announced completion of the Project 11 channel widening project, which eliminated longstanding nighttime vessel movement restrictions in place for more than a century, allowing large vessels to safely transit the channel without waiting for daylight.

Finally, as Stephen Green explains at PJMedia.com, there may be a strategy here...

Supporters and critics alike - the honest critics, that is, who deserve protection under the Endangered Species Act - understand that Trump acts as a chaos agent. He knows the end result he wants, even if sometimes only broadly defined as "Make America Great Again." The established rules and methods don't allow for that, so Trump is happy to blow things up (sometimes literally), and see what can be rebuilt from the pieces.

The thing about that Persian Gulf stranglehold is that, like the Sword of Damocles, it's most effective before it's used. Now that Tehran has tried (and only partly and temporarily succeeded) in closing the Strait of Hormuz, "About the only escalation option the IRGC has is to renew its missile and drone attacks on neighboring Gulf states," as my Hot Air colleague Ed Morrissey put it on Monday. But "Trump has an escalation for that as well: Bridge and Power Plant Day. Let's see how long it takes for Iran to provoke it."

Looking at the bigger picture, Rosas also wrote: "Iran played its biggest card and the main result is that the United States became the world's emergency gas station and China's cheap energy subsidy evaporated. The spice — er, oil — must flow. But Trump rewrote the rulebook about where it flows from."

But, as Andrew Moran writes at Liberty Nation, there is a tricky balancing act here...

On the one hand, the US economy is far more insulated from global oil shocks than it was during the Iraq War, as it is a net petroleum exporter.

The March, April, and May trade data, to be released later this summer and early fall, should yield fascinating economic insights into the Iranian conflict.

On the other hand, consumers still bear the brunt of higher gas prices.

Private-sector data suggest that consumers continued to shop in March, even after excluding gasoline station transactions. Whether they can keep their wallets open this spring, even with handsome windfalls from the One Big Beautiful Bill’s tax refunds, will be a wild card for GDP numbers.

In the end, will this be a winning message for November’s midterm elections? It will be challenging to convince voters of a grand 4D chess scheme involving America’s oil and military prowess.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 10:00

JPM Stock Fizzles Despite Blowout Quarter As Key Forecast Cut

JPM Stock Fizzles Despite Blowout Quarter As Key Forecast Cut

One day after Goldman Sachs reported its highest profit in 5 years (despite an ugly miss in FICC revenues), this morning JPMorgan impressed with just as solid results, when it reported that its Q1 profits rose 13% as the bank benefited from soaring market volatility and frantic trading amid the war with Iran and the US military operation in Venezuela.

The largest US bank reported net income of $16.5bn, beating analyst estimates of a $15.2bn print, up from $14.6bn a year ago and the bank’s second-best quarter ever. Its best quarter remains the $18.1bn the bank earned in the second quarter of 2024 when JPMorgan benefited from a one-off gain from the sale of its stake in Visa. 

One-upping Goldman, JPM reported the best quarter for trading in the bank’s history, boosted by the swings in equity and fixed income markets caused by geopolitical shocks. And unlike Goldman, JPM's FICC also came in much stronger than expected; in fact at $7.1bn it was the second biggest FICC revenue on record.  

The bank reported total trading revenues of $11.6bn, up 20% from the first quarter a year ago, which is a seasonally strong period for the business. It was the highest figure on record for the bank, beating its previous record from 2020.

Revenues from FICC rose 21% to $7.1bn, and beating estimates of $6.7bn; As we reported yesterday, Rival Goldman Sachs on Monday fell far short of what investors were anticipating from its fixed-income business. JPMorgan’s equities trading revenues also rose more than expected, up 17.5% to $4.5bn, and above estimates of $4.31bn. 

Investment-banking fees of $2.88 billion also beat analysts’ expectations of $2.6 billion: this was JPM's best quarter for the business since the end of 2021. It just beat the $2.8 bilion reported by rival Goldman Sachs on Monday, but Goldman’s year-on-year increase was higher at nearly 50%. Dealmakers advising on mergers and acquisitions were the standout, notching an 82% jump to $1.27 billion. Equity underwriting also rose more than expected to $472 million, while a 7% drop in debt-underwriting fees came in line with estimates.  

Here is the top highlights from the company's Q1 results, which also handily beat expectations:

  • Adjusted revenue $50.54 billion, beating estimates $49.26 billion
    • FICC sales & trading revenue $7.08 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $6.65 billion
    • Equities sales & trading revenue $4.48 billion, +17.5% y/y, beating estimates $4.31 billion
    • Investment banking revenue $3.14 billion, +38% y/y, beating estimate $2.73 billion
      • Advisory revenue $1.27 billion, +82% y/y, beating estimate $1.01 billion
      • Equity underwriting rev. $472 million, +46% y/y, beating estimate $453.2 million
      • Debt underwriting rev. $1.15 billion, -6.9% y/y, matching estimate $1.15 billion

JPM also reported managed Net Interest Income (ex. Markets) of $25.48BN, up 9% YoY, and above estimates of $25.18BN, driven by higher deposit balances, as well as higher revolving balances in Card Services, predominantly offset by the impact of lower rates. Costs, meanwhile, were $26.9 billion in the quarter, higher than expected. JPMorgan said in February that it expects to spend about $105 billion this year, excluding legal expenses, and it reaffirmed that figure Tuesday.

Commenting on the quarter, the bank's CEO Jamie Dimon said the firm delivered strong results in 1Q and consumer spending was still strong, businesses were healthy and the US economy “remained resilient”.

“Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed’s asset purchases,” Dimon said in a statement alongside the bank’s earnings. 

“At the same time, there is an increasingly complex set of risks — such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. “While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and reinforce why we prepare the Firm for a wide range of environments,” he said

As usual, JPM paraded with its "fortress balance sheet"...

... with the following key updates for Q1:

  • Net yield on interest-earning assets 2.5%, estimate 2.57%
  • Standardized CET1 ratio 14.3%
  • Managed overhead ratio 53%, estimate 52.8%
  • Return on equity 19%, estimate 17.3%
  • Return on tangible common equity 23%, estimate 20.7%
  • Assets under management $4.79 trillion, estimate $4.89 trillion
  • Tangible book value per share $108.87, estimate $109.28
  • Book value per share $128.38, estimate $129.35
  • Cash and due from banks $22.04 billion, estimate $21.74 billion
  • Loans $1.50 trillion, below estimates of $1.5 trillion
  • Total deposits $2.68 trillion, above estimates of $2.58 trillion
  • Provision for credit losses $2.51 billion
  • Net charge-offs $2.32 billion, below estimate $2.63 billion

And some other notable highlights from the quarter: 

  • Compensation expenses $15.34 billion, estimate $15.04 billion
  • Non-interest expenses $26.85 billion, estimate $26.03 billion

Of note, JPMorgan increased the reserves set aside for potentially soured loans by only $191 million in the first quarter, less than analysts expected. That included a net build for the wholesale side, partially offset by a net release in consumer. With JPMorgan's net charge offs coming in below estimates, it appears that JPM was positioned well for the ongoing private credit meltdown.

“In the great scheme of things, private credit probably does not present a systemic risk,” Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders earlier this month. “When we have a credit cycle, which will happen one day, losses on all leveraged lending in general will be higher than expected, relative to the environment. This is because credit standards have been modestly weakening pretty much across the board.”

The $1.8 trillion private-credit industry has been a focal point amid mounting concern that redemption requests and fears over the impact of artificial intelligence will weigh on the sector. For banks, that’s translated to investor questions about their lending to the industry. Earlier this year, JPMorgan marked down the value of certain loans that serve as collateral against the bank’s loans to private-credit funds. 

Jamie Dimon said losses in private credit will have to be “very large” before banks like JPMorgan Chase face a significant hit from it. “You'll have very large losses in private credit before, at least it looks like, banks can get hit or something like that,” Dimon told analysts. “So it doesn't mean you won't feel some stress and strain, and you might have to do something about it. But I’m not particularly worried about it. I'd be more worried about when there's a credit cycle, how's that going to filter through the whole system.”

JPM CFO Jeremy Barnum said the bank is “reasonably comfortable” with its exposure to private credit, but cautioned that losses will increase if the credit cycle turns. He told reporters that "we’re reasonably comfortable with our exposure. But obviously, if you see a big credit cycle with significant increase in default rates, you’re going to see some losses across the whole system, including banks. And that’s just part of the business."

Wealthy investors attempted to pull more than $20bn from private credit funds in the first quarter, underscoring the growing strain on an asset class that had boomed into a dominant force on Wall Street.

But while its earnings were solid across the board, one reason why JPM stock dipped in kneejerk reaction and was currently unchanged is that the bank trimmed its forecast for net interest income for 2026. JPMorgan said it expected net interest income of about $103bn this year, down from the $104.5bn it forecast in February. Net interest income was almost $96bn in 2025. Excluding lending in its trading division, JPMorgan left unchanged its guidance for net interest income this year of around $95bn. 

Shares traded about 3% lower in the immediate aftermath of JPMorgan’s results announcement, but recovered some of their losses to trade less than 1% below Monday’s close.

Full earnings presentation below (pdf link)

JPM Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 09:29

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