ECB Preview: September Pause

The European Central Bank is in no rush to lower interest rates again: as Bloomberg's David Powell notes, policymakers are waiting for clearer signals on how the economy is responding to trade headwinds and underlying inflation has yet to fall as much as they would like. The latest EU-US deal offers little relief and tariff effects will probably become more visible in the months ahead. Bloomberg Economics expects the ECB to hold interest rates steady at the meeting on Sept. 11 after 8 straight rate cuts, and cut next in December.

• Better-than-expected economic data has quieted the doves and likely strengthened the hand of the hawks. The Bloomberg ECB speak Index has reached its highest level since March 2024, signaling a much less dovish Governing Council.
• Positive data surprises will prompt the ECB’s staff economists to revise up their GDP forecast for 2025. Further out, however, the recent trade deal between the EU and the US points to a larger tariff shock than assumed in the June projections, leaving risks skewed to the downside for both the GDP and inflation forecasts.
• US tariffs remain a serious threat for the euro-area economy. The negative effects are already starting to emerge in the national accounts data and will eventually become more apparent in activity data as well as in the inflation reports.

Here's what everyone else expects, courtesy of Newsquawk: 

OVERVIEW: 66/69 of those surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to hold the Deposit Rate at 2.0% with markets assigning a 99% chance of such an outcome. Given the EU-US trade agreement, resilient growth in the face of trade tensions and a modest uptick in inflation, there is little cause for policymakers to loosen policy at this meeting. Markets remain undecided on whether the ECB will cut rates again, with around a 50% chance of a reduction priced by February next year. With the rate decision and accompanying statement expected to be a non-event, focus will be on the ECB projections with particular attention on the 2026 inflation forecast, currently just 1.6%. PRIOR MEETING: As expected, the ECB stood pat on rates, keeping the deposit rate at 2%. The accompanying policy statement carried little of interest, noting that incoming information is broadly in line with the Governing Councilʼs previous assessment of the inflation outlook. Additionally, the statement repeated the Bank's meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach. At the followup press conference, when questioned about the recent EUR appreciation and VP de Guindos' remark about the complications that EUR/USD breaching 1.20 would bring, President Lagarde stated that the ECB does not target FX levels but is monitoring the situation. Lagarde reiterated that policy remains in a good place, suggesting that policymakers are not in a rush to adjust policy. This point was also underscored by the President emphasising that the ECB will not be swayed by a temporary undershoot in inflation (current 2026 forecast sees inflation at 1.6%), adding that inflation is still expected to stabilise at target over the medium term.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS : Flash HICP metrics for August showed the headline Y/Y print rose to 2.1% from 2.0%, super-core remained at 2.3% and the services metric slip to 3.1% from 3.2%. Summarizing the data, ING wrote that the report confirmed "a rather stable inflation climate despite ample risks to the outlook". The ECB's July Consumer Expectations Survey saw the 1yr forecast hold steady at 2.6% and the 3yr print rise to 2.5% from 2.4%. In terms of market gauges, the 5y5y inflation forward has nudged lower from around 2.12% at the time of the last meeting to current levels of circa 2.10%. On the growth front, Q/Q growth in Q2 slowed to 0.1% from 0.6% amid an unwind of the tariff front-loading effect seen at the start of the year. More timely survey data from S&P Global saw the composite PMI metric move further into expansionary territory with the pace of expansion ticking up to a one-year high. In the labour market, the Eurozone unemployment rate remains at the historical low of 6.2%. Finally, since Julyʼs confab, the EU and US have formalised their trade agreement, which will see most EU goods subject to a 15% tariff vs. the initially threatened 30% level.

SEPTEMBER MEETING: 66/69 of those surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to hold the Deposit Rate at 2.0% with markets assigning a 99% chance of such an outcome. Given the EU-US trade agreement, resilient growth in the face of trade tensions and a modest uptick in inflation, there is little cause for policymakers to loosen policy at this meeting. Moving forward, there is clearly a split of views on the Governing Council, with the doves on the board, such as Finlandʼs Rehn, flagging the likelihood of greater downside risks to inflation. However, the hawks on the GC, such as Germanyʼs Schnabel, are of the view that rates are already mildly accommodative, and do not see a reason for a further rate cut, adding that global rate hikes may come earlier than people think. Market pricing sees a roughly 50% chance of a rate cut by February next year. Given the lack of fireworks expected within the policy statement, markets may be guided more by the accompanying macro projections. During the press conference, President Lagarde will likely be asked about any potential backstops for French debt following the (as expected) fall of PM Bayrou and the modest widening of the OAT-Bund 10yr spread to just over 83bps; shy of the 88bps YTD peak and 90bps from 2024. The Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) is the main tool at the ECBʼs disposal. However, deployment appears to be some way off yet, absent a material rise in spreads. Prior to the vote occurring, Lagarde said the French banking system is not a source of risk, but that she is very attentive to bond spreads.

MACRO PROJECTIONS: For the accompanying macro projections, focus will be on the 2026 inflation forecast, which is currently expected to come in materially below the Bankʼs 2% target at 1.6%. Newswire consensus looks for an upgrade to the 2026 inflation view to 1.9% with 2025 to be raised to 2.1% from 2.0% and 2027 held at 2.0%. On the growth front, 2025 growth is expected to be raised to 1.1% from 0.9%, 2026 maintained at 1.1% and 2027 upgraded to 1.5% from 1.3%. Current forecasts

HICP INFLATION:

• 2025: 2.0%
• 2026: 1.6%
• 2027: 2.0%

HICP CORE INFLATION (EX-ENERGY & FOOD):

• 2025: 2.4%
• 2026: 1.9%
• 2027: 1.9%

GDP

• 2025: 0.9%
• 2026: 1.1%
• 2027: 1.3%

In short: expect a snoozer of a meeting with action picking up again at the end of 2026.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 07:49

France In Flames As The 'Block Everything' Protest Movement Sweeps The Country

Authored by Rick Moran via PJMedia.com,

France and its hapless President Emmanuel Macron are in deep trouble...

On Monday, Macron's government failed to survive a "no-confidence" vote as the country spiraled into crisis. What's most worrying for Macron is that the vote wasn't even close. Prime Minister François Bayrou was dumped overwhelmingly in a 364-194 vote. At issue: Bayrou's sensible but unpopular notion that France had to cut spending to address a growing debt crisis.

"Sensible" and "socialism" don't ordinarily go hand in hand. Thus, in office only since December, Bayrou was given an unceremonious heave-ho.

Macron turned to an old ally to replace Bayrou. He named departing defense minister Sébastien Lecornu to be the fourth prime minister of Macron's government this year.

Lecornu is the only minister to have been in every government since 2017. He has his work cut out for him. He has to pass a budget by year's end and deal with a growing protest movement that will fight tooth and nail to prevent Macron's "austerity budget" from passing.

Macron gambled and called for a "snap" election last year, hoping to increase his slim parliamentary majority. It failed miserably when the populists and the far left made significant gains. Now, the streets are full of angry Frenchmen, and the nation's stability is in question.

NBC News:

Protesters set fires as they blocked highways and gas stations across France early Wednesday as part of a new nationwide movement. Authorities deployed 80,000 police, who made hundreds of arrests and fired tear gas to disperse crowds.

The "Block Everything" movement was born online over the summer in far-right circles, but spread on social media and was co-opted by left-wing, antifascist and anarchist groups. It now includes France’s far-left parties and the country’s powerful labor unions.

Their joint day of unrest adds to the country’s political turmoil, after the collapse of centrist President Emmanuel Macron’s government earlier this week in a similar backlash over proposed budget cuts and broader anger at the political class.

‼️ Massive riots taking place in France as Macron weighs suspending social media to stem the tide.

France’s government has imploded.
pic.twitter.com/XkyqreoTGZ

— Graham Banks Cull (@1GrahamDaily) September 10, 2025

France is fed up. Streets are blocked, people are angry, cops are everywhere. Macron’s govt already collapsed and the chaos keeps growing.

This isn’t protest anymore, it’s rebellion. #BloquonsTout #protesters #MacronDemission pic.twitter.com/kyVFsXpsar

— Maverick Ops (@maverick2886) September 10, 2025

The far left, the largest bloc in parliament, wants Macron's scalp. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the longtime leader of the far-left party France Unbowed, said, “Only the departure of Macron himself can put an end to this sad comedy of contempt for Parliament, voters and political decency.”

Jordan Bardella, the president of the populist National Rally, said his party would give Lecornu the benefit of the doubt and refuse to join the far left in attempting to oust him. But Bardella wasn't enamored of Lecornu.

“Emmanuel Macron’s motto: you don’t change a losing team,” Bardella wrote on social media. “How could a loyal supporter of the President break with the policy he has been pursuing for eight years?”

In the capital Paris, groups gathered and set up barricades at several entry points to the city. Demonstrations were expected to continue throughout the day, with travel disrupted as some of the main transport unions joined the strike.

Hundreds remained gathered outside Gare du Nord, one of the city's main train stations, despite earlier attempts from police to disperse the crowds with tear gas.

“We are here, even if Macron doesn’t want us, we are here,” they chanted.

There were dramatic scenes outside a high school in eastern Paris, where police clashed with dozens of students who had blocked entry to the building.

French political observers believe it's only a matter of time before Macron will be forced to call for another snap election. This would please both the left and the right, who believe they can gain a majority in parliament. The result of another snap election will probably be the same as the last: a hung parliament and more unrest in the streets. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 07:20

ICE Flights Have Ramped Up Since May

The number of deportation flights has ramped up in the United States since May, according to data collected and analysed by Thomas Cartwright for Witness at the Border.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below in January, 109 flights were recorded by the immigrant advocacy group. June and July each saw more than 200 deportation flights, the highest figures since Cartwright started tracking flights in 2020.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Most flights carried out on behalf of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement are domestic shuffles between detention facilities. This is where people are ferried from one part of the U.S., largely based on detention center bed availability following the rise in ICE arrests.

Between January and July of this year, Cartwright counted 3,650 domestic shuffle flights, compared to 1,539 connections and returns and 1,101 removals flights. As the following chart shows, domestic shuffle flights accelerated this year, rising from 273 flights in January to 727 in July.

The U.S. military have carried out 68 deportation flights from January through July, nine of which passed through Guantanamo. However, the majority of flights are being operated by charter airlines. In July, GlobalX Air operated 50 percent of total flights, followed by Eastern Air Express at 24 percent, Avelo at 20 percent, military at 2 percent and other carriers at four percent. This is proving to be a big business for some of these airlines, with more than half of GlobalX’s revenue having come from ICE in Q2 2025, as reported by the Financial Times.

Since ICE Air does not disclose information or data about their flights, this data is based on flight information from the publicly available FlightAware application, FlightRadar24, AirNav, and the ADB-S tracking system.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 06:55

Belarus President Urges Banks To Expand Crypto Use As Sanctions Bite

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has reportedly pushed the country’s banks to expand how they use crypto, admitting that sanctions have greatly impacted the economy.

Lukashenko told the heads of Belarus’ central and commercial banks in a meeting that the use of digital tokens needs to be expanded, the state-owned Belarusian Telegraph Agency reported on Tuesday.

“Over the past five years, the national economy, and with it the Belarusian banking sector, have faced unprecedented challenges,” Lukashenko said. “The government and the National Bank have been given corresponding instructions. Now, act.”

Lukashenko’s latest push comes days after he told lawmakers to create transparent rules for the country’s cryptocurrency market on Friday, as the country’s economy has declined due to shrinking exports under broad EU and US sanctions for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

President Alexander Lukashenko told banks to expand crypto usage after telling lawmakers to develop rules for the sector. Source: YouTube 

Due to their anonymous and decentralized nature, cryptocurrencies have been used among other methods to help countries, most notably Russia and North Korea, evade sanctions and conduct trade.

Payments via Belarusian crypto exchanges could top $3 billion  

The total number of crypto users in Belarus is expected to surpass more than 855,000 by 2026, out of a population of 9.1 million, while user penetration is projected to increase to 9.57% according to online data platform Statista.

Lukashenko claims all the exchanges operating in the country, such as Binance, OKX and KuCoin, are on track to possibly double in external payments by the end of the year.

“Today, cryptocurrency-based transactions are more active than ever, and their role in facilitating payments is growing,” he said.

“In the seven months of this year, the volume of external payments through cryptocurrency exchanges amounted to $1.7 billion. According to expert estimates, it may reach $3 billion by the end of the year.”

In September last year, Lukashenko signed a law banning individuals from buying and selling crypto outside of Belarusian exchanges.

Another push for digital payment systems

Lukashenko also told the banking leaders to increase the adoption of digital payment systems, after making a “start with QR codes,” and to launch an instant payment system by the end of the year.

VTB Bank Belarus, a Russian majority state-owned bank, started offering its customers payment options using QR codes connected directly to the online payment system ERIP.

Lukashenko said the country’s digital strategy must prioritize adopting biometric technologies, establish a dedicated IT company to reduce reliance on external service providers and integrate artificial intelligence-based solutions.

“Banks must try to make the most of modern technology. Digitalization is not an end in itself; it must deliver tangible economic results,” he added.

Belarus crypto attitude

Belarus’s attitude toward crypto has been somewhat mixed in the past.

In March, Lukashenko instructed his energy minister to begin developing the country’s cryptocurrency mining industry because the country had an excess of electricity.

In the summer of 2023, the Belarusian Ministry was working on banning peer-to-peer transactions in crypto, such as Bitcoin.

However, the country also legalized crypto transactions in 2018 and allowed selling, exchanging, and mining. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 06:30

Amb. Huckabee Clarifies The US Won't Oppose West Bank Annexation

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said in an interview last week that the US has never asked Israel to "not apply sovereignty," referring to the possibility of Israel annexing parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

"The US has never asked Israel to not apply sovereignty," Huckabee said, according to a September 5 post from a journalist for Israel’s Channel 14. "I have repeatedly stated that the US respects Israel as a sovereign nation and will not tell Israel what to do. This is also what Secretary Rubio has said as recently as this week."

Source: NPR

Israeli officials said last week that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had signaled to them that the US wouldn’t oppose Israel if it moved to annex the West Bank. He has also said publicly that annexation could be Israel’s response to Western states taking steps toward recognizing a Palestinian state.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently outlined a proposal for annexing 82% of the West Bank and leaving six Palestinian population centers isolated as islands. He said that his plan aims for “maximum territory and minimum Arab population.”

Huckabee has also made clear that the Trump administration doesn’t oppose the recent major expansion of illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which Smotrich said would "erase" the idea of a Palestinian state.

Huckabee has claimed that the settlements are not illegal under international law despite their clear prohibition under the Geneva Convention of 1949, which both the US and Israel have signed and ratified.

Huckabee is a Christian Zionist, and his approach to Israel and Palestine is based on his view that God gave historic Palestine to the modern state of Israel, a theology that is rejected by the Catholic Church, the Orthodox Church, and most other Christian denominations.

When asked in a recent interview with The Jerusalem Post about the growing skepticism of Israel among Americans, Huckabee suggested Christian pastors who didn’t teach his viewpoint were to blame.

"There are pastors in the evangelical world who have not explained to their congregations where the support for Israel comes from biblically," he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 05:00

How Much Are Teachers Paid Around The World?

Teachers' salaries vary significantly around the world.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, based on new data published in the OECD Education at a Glance report, that salaries in Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands are at the higher end of the spectrum, with primary school teachers in public institutions earning on average over $90,000 per year.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Poland is among the countries found towards the other end of the spectrum, with teachers earning around $55,407 per year.

These calculations are based on the average actual salaries of 25 to 64 year old teachers in public schools and were converted to U.S. dollars using purchasing power parities for private consumption.

Of the 34 OECD countries that provided data on average teacher salaries, the average annual salary came out at $57,399 in 2024.

The United States performed above this mark, with primary school teachers earning an annual salary of $68,153.

In the United Kingdom, teachers in England had a lower than average salary at $54,550 while Scotland’s figure was $62,584.

These figures hide the differences that exist within countries. OECD analysts explain that teachers may enter the profession with different levels of qualifications and differ in their years of accrued experience, with a higher level often linked to a higher salary band. In Colombia, a maximum statutory salary in 2024 was $119,850. This is a salary at the top end of the scale for teachers who have the maximum number of qualifications. By contrast, the minimum statutory salary in Colombia was $26,862. This figure reflects starting salaries for teachers with the minimum number of required qualifications. In the U.S., the maximum was $85,827, while the minimum was $49,386. In England, $97,930 was the top level and $41,468 the minimum.

Teachers’ salaries also typically increase with the level of education that they are teaching. According to the report, the figures are lowest for pre-primary school at an OECD average of $55,725, rising to $59,673 at primary school level, $61,563 at lower secondary school and $63,925 at upper secondary school.

The OECD Education at a Glance report, released on Tuesday, analyzes the state of education around the world, spanning all levels of education and providing data on topics from teacher retention rates to the latest figures on unemployment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 04:15

Sudan's Hidden War: Muslim Brotherhood's Grip On Army Threatens Regional Stability, Global Trade

Authored by Anna Mahjar-Barducci via The Gatestone Institute,

Sudan's brutal civil war, often overshadowed by global headlines, is not just a clash between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and their former military allies turned rivals, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). It is a calculated power grab by the Muslim Brotherhood, which appears to be using the SAF as a Trojan horse to dominate northeast Africa and the Red Sea, a critical artery for global commerce.

Despite recent moves by SAF leader General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan to curb Islamist influence, presumably at the request of the United States or Egypt, the efforts of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has deep roots in his army, to achieve control of Sudan, northeast Africa and the Red Sea, signal a dangerous threat that could disrupt oil supplies, inflate global prices, and revive Sudan as a terrorist hub, imperiling Western interests.

The Muslim Brotherhood, sponsored by Qatar, appears to be hijacking the SAF to stage a takeover, recycling old alliances under new guises. Despite recent concessions to the United States and Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood's grip in Sudan -- backed by Qatar and Iran -- threatens regional and global stability, potentially including freedom of passage in the Red Sea. The U.S. would do well to intensify sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and support regional actors in efforts to dismantle these networks.

The Muslim Brotherhood's influence is increasingly recognized as a global threat by governments in countries such as the United States and France. A May 21, 2025 report requested by the French government on the Muslim Brotherhood's role in France and Europe, detailed the threats posed by the Islamist movement shaping "parallel Islamic ecosystems," challenging Western secular values.

A Legacy of Islamist Control

Sudan's descent into chaos began in 1989, when General Omar Al-Bashir, backed by the Muslim Brotherhood's National Islamic Front, seized power. For three decades, his regime orchestrated genocides in South Sudan and Darfur, sheltered Osama bin Laden from 1992 to 1997, and enabled Al-Qaeda's attacks, including the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. Bashir's regime also funneled Iranian missiles to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and supported Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda, making Sudan a global extremist stronghold.

The 2019 ouster of Al-Bashir had sparked hopes for democracy, but Burhan's 2021 coup against the transitional government and the 2023 war with the RSF, which wanted to defeat Burhan and his Muslim Brotherhood allies and take over the country, crushed those dreams. Beneath the surface, the Muslim Brotherhood — known in Sudan as the Islamic Movement — has entrenched itself in the SAF, and turned it into a tool for their regional ambitions to take control of northeast Africa and the Red Sea.

The Muslim Brotherhood is not just allied with the SAF; individuals in it seem to be steering the SAF to take total control of Sudan in order to make it the Muslim Brotherhood's stronghold in Africa and the Middle East.

Sudan, at the crossroads of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, happens to be in an extremely critical strategic position. It has access to the Red Sea and vital trade routes such as the Suez Canal, and is also a crucial transit point for migrants traveling from the Horn of Africa and the Sahel to North Africa, then on to Europe.

The SAF is infiltrated by jihadist factions such as the Al-Bara Bin Malik Brigade (the Muslim Brotherhood's local military arm), the Bunyan Al-Marsous Brigade, and Justice and Equality Movement rebels led by Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim. These groups, tied to Bashir's ruthless National Intelligence and Security Service, frame their fight as a "jihad" against the RSF, which is backed by Sudan's secular civil society.

Social media videos show the Al-Bara Bin Malik Brigade, in Omdurman, halting RSF advances and bolstering SAF operations in Khartoum. A retired officer told the media that Islamic extremists have filled critical infantry gaps. Ali Ahmed Karti, the U.S.-sanctioned Islamic Movement leader, is, as reported by Arab media outlets, a key orchestrator of the SAF-Muslim Brotherhood alliance. Since his student days, Karti has organized Brotherhood loyalists in the army, and later packed the SAF with jihadists.

Reports in the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reveal that after 1989, the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan, which was aligned with the Bashir government, purged thousands of non-fundamentalist officers, assassinating some, and took control of admissions to the Military Colleges. By 2019, the SAF was ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood.

It was Karti's ideological influence that apparently derailed the possibility of a civilian-led transitional government in Sudan after the October 2021 military coup. Karti also unleashed jihadist battalions, which were rebranded as Burhan's "Popular Resistance."

This summer, there seemed to be cracks in the alliance between the SAF and the Muslim Brotherhood. In August, Burhan fired five senior generals who are Islamic extremists, including General Nasreddin, head of the SAF Armored Corps, whom the Muslim Brotherhood had reportedly been grooming as a potential successor to Burhan. One analyst suggested that the five generals were dismissed after Burhan met with U.S. Special Envoy Mossad Boulos in Switzerland, on August 11, 2025. Researcher Mujahid Ahmed, however, warns that the Muslim Brotherhood's influence persists, extending into civilian institutions, especially the foreign affairs and justice ministries. According to the Ayin Network, Al-Burhan apparently still relies on Karti and Bashir's loyalist, Ahmed Haroun, for battlefield support, indicating a tactical, not total, break.

Iran's Arms and Qatar's Role

Iran has been supplying the Muslim Brotherhood-SAF axis with arms, including Ababil-3 and Mohajer-6 drones, which were delivered to Port Sudan in March and June 2024. Satellite imagery viewed by the BBC confirms their presence at a military site near Khartoum. Iran's support of this Muslim Brotherhood-SAF axis, tied to its ambitions to have a presence in the Red Sea, coincides with the Brotherhood's goals: namely, threatening U.S. allies such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Why It Matters to the West

The Red Sea handles 10-15% of the world's maritime commerce, including vital oil and gas shipments. In a conflict, the Muslim Brotherhood-controlled Sudan, using the SAF as a proxy, could choke this route as the Houthis have been doing, thereby spiking prices and impairing American and other economies. The Muslim Brotherhood's ties to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State risk turning Sudan into a terrorist base targeting Western and allied Middle Eastern interests.

Trump's Sudan Gamble

The Trump administration is navigating a tightrope, trying, it seems, to balance Egypt's pro-SAF stance. Egypt is actively supporting the SAF to bolster its stability as a national institution, while simultaneously working to curb the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood and its sponsor, Qatar. Ayin Network noted that Egypt insists "the SAF must remain central to any post-war political order." Burhan's "cosmetic" purge of Islamist generals shows that he can indeed be influenced by Egypt and by the United States, but his reliance on the Muslim Brotherhood's financial and military support limits his ability to implement any reforms .

A Global Wake-Up Call

Sudan is evidently very much a part of the Muslim Brotherhood's global agenda. Ignoring events there will only allow a hostile stronghold to emerge in a region strategically vital for the interests of the West.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 03:30

Spain's Power Grid In One Chart: Net Zero Drive Pushes Economy Toward Paralysis

Days before the media celebrated Spain's first full weekday powered entirely by renewables in late April, the unthinkable happened: the grid collapsed, triggering a nationwide blackout. The incident served as a stark reminder to other Western nations, including 'America First' folks, that overreliance on intermittent sources, such as solar and wind, creates not just grid fragility but also a national security risk. 

A new report from El País, citing data from the Association of Electric Power Companies (Aelec), based on data published by Iberdrola, Endesa, Naturgy, and EDP, warned that Spain's peninsular power grid is severely overstretched and unable to absorb additional demand. In fact, most of the country's electricity hubs have already reached their limits.

Aelec data showed that 83.4% of all these power nodes in the Spanish grid are at full capacity and can no longer accept new connections. 

Most regions in Spain have limited spare grid capacity to accommodate new energy demand without compromising the system's stability. 

The problem of grid capacity shortages arises as Europe's overreliance on intermittent sources, such as wind and solar, has left the continent's energy grid vulnerable. 

Brussels has had a weird obsession with all things "green" energy, which is not as green as it's made out to be, sparking the blackout in Spain in late April. Also, energy prices have soared, and power bills have skyrocketed as liberal elites on the continent sacrificed grid reliability to combat some alleged climate crisis. 

As we all know, net zero was bullshit and won't come until nuclear power generation is ramped up in the 2030s, if not in the decade after. However, the net zero narrative was lucrative for woke politicians and their allies (billionaires). And under the banner of fighting an alleged climate crisis, these lawmakers funneled billions of dollars into subsidies, grants, and contracts that enriched a web of special interests, from renewable energy companies to consulting firms to NGOs and financial institutions.

After this massive boondoggle, what are the Europeans left with? Look no further than Spain: a fragile, maxed-out grid that threatens to paralyze the economy as power constraints will stall new factories and data center buildouts. Well done, Brussels - it's almost as if these so-called 'green' policies were never intended to succeed, but rather to neuter the E.U. and give a clear path for China's economic rise.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 02:45

The US Might Try To Manipulate Nepal Into Weaponizing Its Revived Border Dispute With India

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The student-driven riots that were putatively sparked by the state’s banning of social media after top platforms failed to register in line with the law might be a front for ultra-nationalist extremists backed by the West in a remix of summer 2024’s Bangladeshi regime change model.

Nepal formally complained in late August after China and India agreed to resume their border trade through the Lipulekh crossing. Newly ousted Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli also brought it up during his meeting with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the SCO Summit in Tianjin. Kathmandu lays claim to this territory and a mountainous sliver beyond per a colonial-era dispute but only rigorously began pursuing it in the run-up to summer 2020’s Sino-Indo clashes.

This context suggests that Nepal expected Chinese backing against India, calculating that it could benefit from this via privileged economic and military support or at the very least by profiting off of facilitating their trade if their bilateral dispute kept border crossings closed indefinitely. What Oli (who was Prime Minister back then and once again till recently after a three-year hiatus) couldn’t have foreseen, just like mostly everyone else, was the Sino-Indo rapprochement that the US just inadvertently brought about.

He's a communist with Machiavellian characteristics as proven by the aforementioned foreign policy calculation and his hitherto crafty politicking, but he’s also somewhat of an idealist who simply couldn’t countenance the realpolitik involved in fellow communist China’s latest own calculations vis-à-vis India. Simply put, China’s interests in the present context are best served by prioritizing India’s interests over Nepal’s in those two’s dispute, which appears to have truly caught Oli and his government off guard.

Nevertheless, China’s mercantile move doesn’t come at any tangible expense to Nepal since it hasn’t controlled this territory for over 200 years, but the political consequences might possibly push Nepal to recalibrate its balancing act by leaning more on the US. That’s precisely what India did from 2015 till just recently due to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the flagship project of China’s Belt & Road Initiative, passing through Pakistani-controlled Kashmiri territory that India claims as its own.

India’s pro-US foreign policy recalibration took the form of them comprehensively expanding economic and military ties, while Nepal’s might focus more on developmental assistance such as the almost-cut “Millennium Challenge Corporation”, which is aimed at countering Sino-Indo influence there. Geography limits the extent to which a potentially pro-US Nepal could become a wedge between China and India, but it could still at minimum turn into a bastion of hostile “NGO” operations after Oli’s surprise ouster.

The student-driven riots that were putatively sparked by the state’s banning of social media after top platforms failed to register in line with the law might be a front for ultra-nationalist extremists backed by the West in a remix of summer 2024’s Bangladeshi regime change model. It therefore can’t be ruled out that the new Nepali authorities might be tasked by the US with weaponizing their country’s border dispute with India as punishment for Delhi refusing to submit to Washington’s demands on Russia.

All in all, there are three takeaways from the latest twist in this dispute that suspiciously preceded Oli’s ouster:

1) China is prioritizing India’s interests over Nepal’s in furtherance of its own;

2) Nepalis might be manipulated by the US against both as a result; and

3) this could be weaponized by the new authorities.

The best-case scenario is that they prioritize economic and anti-corruption reforms instead of letting themselves be exploited as geopolitical pawns, but it’s too early to say exactly what they’ll do.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 23:50