US Diesel Craters, EU Prices Skyrocket As Politico Reports White House Preparing Plan For 90-Day Export Ban

Summary: 

• New Politico Report Suggests White House Preparing For Diesel Export Ban
• "Definitely Doesn't Work": U.S. Energy Sec Rejects Diesel Export Ban, Risks Creating Bigger Supply-Squeeze Later

Politico Reports White House Prepares Plan For 90-Day Diesel Exports Ban

Diesel is certainly top of mind in the White House as a global refining crisis has sent prices at the pump for the industrial fuel to record-high levels, so high that Apollo's chief economist, Torsten Slok, warned earlier that it could spark a core inflation shock.

Policy maneuvering by the White House is limited, and what has been floated by Trump and some top Republicans is a diesel export ban, while top desks on Wall Street have warned that it's a terrible idea and could exacerbate prices around the world.

Earlier, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright was at odds with Trump's call for a diesel export ban; Wright said, "The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work."

Around lunchtime in New York, a new Politico report said the White House was preparing a potential 90-day ban on diesel exports ahead of November's midterm elections.

The report stated that the proposal remains under discussion, with its legal framework unresolved. Politico cited five people familiar with the talks.

"What has overpowered cooler heads [in the White House] is the absolutely, sky-is-falling, we-have-to-do-something concern about prices at the pump" faction, said this person, who was granted anonymity to discuss conversations with White House officials. "That camp has been swept aside by the political camp, which says, 'dammit, something has to happen.'"

AAA Diesel v. Gas at pump

A White House official commented on the report, calling it "another fake news story from Politico."

The immediate price action in the fuel markets was:

• US DIESEL FUTURES SINK MORE THAN 7% TO INTRADAY LOW
• EUROPEAN DIESEL FUTURES SURGE OVER 7% TO SESSION HIGH

Here's what happened:

Last week, Barclays refining and midstream analyst Theresa Chen warned clients that a proposed U.S. diesel export ban would be "detrimental to the US refining complex and unlikely to provide the intended price relief."

Chen outlined one major problem: keeping diesel inside the country does not guarantee it can reach gas pumps.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari told clients the global refining system will be stretched through 2027, with diesel and gas prices expected to remain elevated.

The latest EIA data (2025) shows that Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. diesel, followed by Chile, Brazil, the Netherlands, and the UK.

• Mexico: ~220,000 b/d (17% of total distillate exports). Still #1 but down ~18% from 2024. Mexico imports large volumes of U.S. refined products (gasoline and diesel) while sending heavier crude north.
• Chile: Second-largest destination; volumes rose ~15–16k b/d from 2024.
• Brazil: ~103,000 b/d (third). This is well below earlier peaks near 200k b/d; Brazil has taken more discounted Russian barrels since 2022 sanctions redirected Russian diesel away from Europe.
• Netherlands: ~98,000 b/d (major European trading hub/re-export point).
• United Kingdom: ~89,000 b/d (record annual average).

A case of resource nationalism? Or is the Politico report "another fake news story," as a White House source cited in the report suggests?

"Definitely Doesn't Work": U.S. Energy Sec Rejects Diesel Export Ban, Risks Creating Bigger Supply-Squeeze Later

President Trump will not be pleased...

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has publicly opposed calls for a ban on U.S. diesel exports, arguing on Wednesday that the measure would backfire by increasing gasoline and jet fuel prices.

"The blunt ​tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't ‌work," ⁠Wright said at an event in New York, as reported by Reuters.

Wright said restricting exports would leave refiners with excess diesel inventories, forcing them to cut refinery output.

Lower refinery runs, he warned, would tighten supplies of other fuels, ultimately driving up costs for consumers and businesses.

His comments put him at odds with President Trump, who signaled support for the idea on Tuesday as diesel prices surge to record highs in the U.S. and Europe (and Treasury Secretary Bessent has been assigned to see "if it's feasible."

Trump's comments already sent European pries for the fuel surging.

With flows from the region's top supplier at risk, Bloomberg reports that European diesel's premium to Brent crude jumped to more than $95 a barrel on Wednesday, a record in Bloomberg data going back to 2011.

Known as crack spread, the indicator has been keenly watched by central bankers as they seek to tame inflation. The equivalent measure in the U.S., meanwhile, weakened.

Trump's threat comes as Europe is already grappling with the loss of diesel shipments from the Middle East, and Russian export curbs have tightened the global fuel market further. The US has become Europe's main overseas supplier, with American exports of the workhorse fuel surging to a weekly record near 2 million barrels a day last month.

A key U.S. oil industry group cautioned against the move, saying it could lower American fuel production and damage the global economy.

Of the 8 million barrels of diesel traded globally by sea each day, the U.S. supplies about 1.5 million of them - about 20%. An export ban would remove the single largest source of global diesel from the market, and the consequences could be catastrophic.

"Restricting exports is not a solution to high prices," the American Petroleum Institute says.

"Removing US diesel from the market could instead result in reduced refinery runs, global economic damage and even higher US prices."

Indeed, as Bloomberg macro strategist, Michael Ball, write this morning,while The White House may be able to engineer a brief drop in U.S. diesel prices by limiting exports, it risks creating a bigger supply problem down the road.

With distillate stocks at seasonally record lows...

...the appeal is obvious with U.S. diesel above $6.50 a gallon...

But a broad curb could strand as much as 1.5 million barrels a day, roughly 29% of U.S. diesel output.

If enacted, Ball writes, the effects would be uneven across the U.S.

A surplus would build on the Gulf Coast, while pipeline, shipping and fuel-specification constraints limit how easily those barrels can reach tighter East and West Coast markets.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Gulf Coast storage could only absorb about three weeks of net diesel exports before constraints bite.

The global impact would be worse.

Kpler argues there is no real replacement for U.S. export volumes, leaving Latin America and Northwest Europe particularly exposed and increasing competition for Indian barrels.

China could compound the squeeze as domestic inventories fall and the risk of renewed export curbs rises.

The response from refiners would create a negative feedback loop.

If trapped barrels crush margins, refiners are incentivized to cut runs and undertake maintenance.

S&P Global Energy estimates crude runs might need to fall by nearly 2 million barrels a day - more than 10% of the current production level - to clear the surplus.

That is the asymmetry: lower U.S. diesel prices first, tighter global product markets follow, and potentially less U.S. fuel supply later.

The more aggressive the restriction, the greater the risk that today's price relief becomes tomorrow's supply problem.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 13:40

Bonds Crash Most Since Liberation Day After Catastrophic 5Y Auction; 2nd Biggest Tail On Record

Coming into today's 5Y auction, the bond market was collapsing, with yields across the curve soaring but especially the 5Y exploding a crazy 15bps heading into today's auction (of 5 Year treasuries), a massive concession which we thought would lead to "lots of demand" for today's offering. 

*TREASURY 5-YEAR YIELD RISES 15 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.99%

At least there will be lots of demand for paper in today's 5Y auction

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 23, 2026

Boy, were we wrong: moments ago the Treasury published results from today's auction and there were absolutely disastrous.

The sale of $70 billion priced at the first 5%+ yield since 2007, 5.033% to be specific (which means the first 5% cash coupon for today's buyers in 19 years), up from 4.391%. But the kicker is that the When Issued traded at 5.001%, meaning the auction tailed by a massive 3.1bps, which is the 2nd highest tail on record.

The bid to cover was ugly: down to 2.212 from 2.371, and the lowest since December 2018. 

The internals were even worse: Indirects plunged to 54.31% from 61.51%, the lowest since the depths of covid, in March 2020. And withj Directs inexplicably jumping to 29.92%, the highest since December '25, Dealers were left holding 15.8% of the auction, the most since May 2024.

Overall this was a horrific auction, where demand simply was not there contrary to what the When Issued indicated, and the results sparked a fresh rout acorss the curve, with the 10Y last trading just shy of 5.13% in what is shaping up as the worst day for the bond market since Liberation Day.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 13:31

CFTC Chair Pushes Tokenization As SEC Opens Door To Onchain Stocks

Authored by Ezra Reguerra via Cointelegraph,

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig said financial markets should prepare for "mass tokenization" as regulators adapt existing frameworks for blockchain, artificial intelligence and onchain markets.

In remarks delivered Tuesday at the US Treasury Market Conference, Selig said tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) could become the foundation of a more efficient financial system, enabling near-instant settlement and real-time collateral movement between clearinghouses, intermediaries and users.

"Just as the transition from hand signals to electronic trading advanced our financial system, I believe tokenization can do the same for all asset classes," Selig said, adding that the CFTC would pursue principles-based rules as tokenization and onchain finance evolve.

Selig said in August that the CFTC would move ahead with crypto rules under its existing authority if Congress did not pass the CLARITY Act. The Senate failed to advance the bill on Sept. 15.

On Sept. 17, the CFTC submitted a regulatory action covering crypto asset transactions and markets for White House review. The filing is still at the "prerule" stage and does not detail the planned regulations.

SEC also moves to bring markets onchain

Officials at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have also promoted the development of tokenized markets.

In a Bloomberg TV interview, the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets Director Jamie Selway said that tokenization and crypto have recently become politicized but are "not naturally a politicized function."

Selway said US success in developing the markets should receive bipartisan support.

On Sept. 17, the SEC granted a temporary "Innovation Exemption" for tokenized US stock trading.

The exemption lets certain platforms trade digital versions of US-listed stocks under certain conditions.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said in February that such an exemption could facilitate onchain trading while regulators developed longer-term rules.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 13:00

Brazil's Socialist Lula Cries 'Foreign Interference' At UN As Bolsonaro Ties Him In Runoff Polls

"Flávio Bolsonaro has moved marginally ahead of Lula in a potential run-off, with the race effectively tied," Daniel Lavarda, HSBC's head of Brazil macroeconomic research, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. 

Lavarda said, "Worsening approval ratings weigh on Lula's prospects, reducing probability of re-election to 18% (per to our model)," adding, "With the race tied up, the outcome will hinge on late-campaign developments, turnout and ability to mobilize voters." 

Lavarda's latest note on the Brazilian election continues the theme that the right-wing challenger, Bolsonaro, has a real chance of defeating the unhinged socialist, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. That theme largely began when Polymarket's election odds flipped to a Bolsonaro lead on September 10.

Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)

Now, the Polymarket bet, with nearly $154 million traded, shows Bolsonaro leading at 59% versus Lula's 41%.

On Tuesday at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Lula cried foul, saying that countries shouldn't interfere in the internal affairs of other nations.

"We will not allow the enemies of democracy, whether domestic or foreign, to undermine popular will. Brazilian democracy belongs to Brazilians. Brazil will continue to be a sovereign country," Lula said. "Nobody will turn us away from this path."

Meanwhile ... 

Lula's speech comes as the prospect of a Bolsonaro win has shifted foreign capital flows back to Brazil. Goldman analysts found, after surveying 70 global investors, that EWZ, the US-listed Brazil equity ETF, could be set up for a 20% surge if the right-wing candidate wins.

Our technical analysts at The Market Ear see far greater upside in Brazilian stocks if a Bolsonaro win materializes early next month:

• Brazil's Next Big Squeeze: Up To 54% Upside

A Bolsonaro win would cement a rightward shift across much of South America as millions reject nation-killing progressive experiments.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 12:40

Market Warning Signs And The 'Perfect' Hedge

Via Crescat Capital,

We showed in prior letters that the US stock market has recently reached all-time high valuations across a variety of dimensions. Now, the market is flashing warning signals of a potential major market top based on a variety of divergent technical and cross-market indicators.

We show four of these in this letter:

New 52-week Highs vs. Lows Chart

Normally, when a stock market index moves up and down, the underlying stocks reaching new 52-week highs minus those hitting new 52-week lows go up and down, in sync. One can see that relationship most of the time in the NASDAQ Composite chart below over the last year. Recently, however, it’s been the opposite.

This index just closed at a marginal new all-time high, while the underlying stocks hitting new lows have exceeded those hitting new highs for 17 days straight. Weak, non-confirming market internals can signal a major market top. In this case, a narrow group of large stocks has driven the overall index return to new highs without confirmation from its underlying components.

Widening CCC vs. BBB Credit Spreads

Credit markets are generally quicker to pick up on deteriorating corporate cash flows than equity markets. While the S&P 500 Index has been hitting new all-time highs over the past six months, US triple-C credit spreads relative to triple-B have widened significantly over the same time, another non-confirming divergence, which we show in the chart below.

Similar warning signals of a pending stock market downturn from this indicator can be seen in the same chart historically:

1. A divergence in credit spreads vs. the 2000 tech bubble and stock market top;
2. Trends and levels consistent with the very beginning of the last two major stock market meltdowns and recessions: the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 Covid recession; and
3. Deterioration consistent with the 2022 bear market.

Recent Negative Correlation of the Advance-Decline Line vs. S&P 500

The advance-decline line is a plot of the cumulative sum of daily differences between the number of issues advancing and those declining for a given market index. In capitalization-weighted stock indices, such as the S&P 500, price changes of larger market-cap stocks will have larger effects on index returns. The advance-decline line can provide insight regarding the number of individual stocks participating in a market rally or decline.

Divergence occurs when the underlying index moves in one direction and the advance-decline line for that index moves in the opposite direction. When the advance-decline line is moving down while the underlying index pushes higher, one begins to question the true health and direction of the market.

Below is a chart showing the rolling 50-day correlation between the S&P 500 and its cumulative advance-decline line. Over 2026, we have seen their relationship weaken substantially and even turn negative. The last time we saw such divergence was during the peak of the Dotcom bubble.

S&P 500 Deterioration of Members Trading Above 200-day Moving Average

The percent of members in the S&P 500 trading above their 200-day averages has plunged over the past month, as we show in the chart below, even as the index itself has remained relatively flat, near all-time highs. This divergence points towards a breakdown in market breadth despite apparent top-line stability. Again, performance is becoming increasingly concentrated among a small group of megacaps.

As one can see in the chart, a similar setup emerged in the lead-up to Liberation Day (April 2nd, 2025), where technicals began to weaken before the broad market selloff. Selling pressure and risk reduction were already building beneath the surface ahead of the tariff announcement. The tariff announcement was the spark that lit the fire.

The Perfect Hedge

What do we see as the perfect hedge for today’s stock market? While no hedge is perfect, to us it means positioning for what we believe offers the strongest potential risk-adjusted outperformance, or alpha, relative to the S&P 500.

Today, we believe that opportunity is in gold. More specifically, we see even greater alpha potential in Crescat’s diversified activist precious and critical metals exploration strategy. Junior mining exploration carries operational risks and market volatility, but we believe it offers substantially better value and long-term growth potential than gold itself. That is where our precious metals hedge funds are focused.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 12:20

Traders Have Modest Hopes For A Trump-Xi AI Deal

While we will provide a more detailed preview of the Trump/Xi summit in a subsequent post, there are signs that President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, may emerge from their upcoming summit with an agreement about the artificial-intelligence industry, an increasingly prominent flash point between the world’s two biggest economies. But, as Bloomberg's Jacob Gu  notes, fund managers say it’s unlikely to be significant enough to provide a sustainable boost to AI-related stocks.

Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, after hours of talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York, said the two sides agreed to create what he called a “US-China AI dialogue” about the technology’s benefits and threats.

The following day, Liao Min, the Chinese Vice Finance Minister, and a key member of the delegation, told Bloomberg that staff from the two countries were working together toward the details of a potential agreement on AI, investment and trade.

Bessent will present Trump with an AI agreement to review before his meeting with Xi, Fox Business reported.

The importance of AI at the US-China talks is being highlighted by the expected presence of Sam Altman and other industry executives at Trump’s state dinner for Xi to be held later this week, and while US tech execs will be present (again),  Xi is unlikely to bring a delegation of corporate executives when he meets Trump,, the WSJ reported.

But Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said investors shouldn’t expect it to have much immediate impact on the business between the two countries. “Given past experiences, our sense is that Trump’s visit to China earlier this year with a heavyweight technology entourage did not ultimately translate into meaningful progress on technology or hardware restrictions,” he said.

“From our side, this still looks more symbolic than substantive, and investors should continue positioning for a prolonged AI race rather than an imminent policy breakthrough,” Tan added.

Ashwin Binwani, founder of private investment firm Alpha Binwani Capital, was similarly cautious, since Bessent highlighted safety issues rather than an easing of US export controls.

“A pop on that news is a fade candidate, not a trend to chase,” he said. “Diversify away from pure semiconductor concentration into the hyperscaler capex story, which has its own momentum independent of the summit.”

He said traders have been burned previously when policy discussions failed to result in more concrete steps like licensing or purchase deals. That’s not to say there’d be no potential stock-market impact: He said “a modestly constructive readout” could fuel a rebound in the most heavily shorted Hong Kong stocks as investors close out positions.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 11:15

Where Will This All/Diesel End Up?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Underlining how markets are now driven by geopolitics and geoeconomics, it’s all big names, big games, and big trades today. The UN general assembly is in session as the Wall Street Journal notes, ‘World leaders almost all agree on one thing: the UN is failing.’ Xi will also visit Trump: will those talks achieve anything substantive?

Oil is down on hopes for ‘peace in our time.’ The Saudi east-west pipeline will start again at lower capacity, China warned the Houthis not to block the Red Sea, Trump negotiators held a “very productive” three-hour meeting with the Iranians in New York, Iran floated reopening Hormuz in seven days if the US lifts its blockade, and Ukraine’s Zelenskyy stated Kyiv and Washington want that other war to end “before winter” and is ready for an “energy ceasefire.”

Yet elsewhere the question looks like ‘war at what time?’ Iran has hardened its demands for ending the war, and Trump just publicly threatened it with “annihilation”, then met with the Arab states expected to attack Tehran alongside it if that were to occur. Qatar is urging diplomacy as the Gulf enters “one of the most dangerous phases.” Ukraine’s press reports ‘Russia's rigged election gives Putin a mandate for all-out war’. In Russia, two more oil refineries were just hit, and bomb shelters in Moscow and St Petersburg are quietly being modernized. The US, Greenland, and Denmark signed a security deal that will see expanded US military bases and a larger NATO presence. UK PM Burnham did a U-turn on the Chagos islands deal after being told it was “terrible” by Trump, which is important but not market moving; his refusing to rule out rejoining the EU could be both - and he might notice Argentina considering new submarines and frigates.

The Senate Armed Services Committee chair has criticized the planned pageantry around the Trump-Xi meeting, which was not offered in Beijing in equal measure: but larger questions swirl around tariffs, rare earths, AI, and Taiwan. The Hong Kong press wonders if both men can use their leverage --recall ‘Who has the cards?’ was our 2026 theme this time last year-- to make progress. Do recall that in April 2017, when the two men first met in the US to talk trade and North Korea, Trump, over “a beautiful piece of chocolate cake”, told Xi that he had just launched 59 cruise missiles at Syria in response to its government’s use of chemical weapons against its own people. Today, could the US spare 59 missiles for the same level of opponent?

Ahead of that key meeting, speaking to our zeitgeist, Brazil's President Lula used his UN speech to warn against any foreign interference in his country’s upcoming presidential elections. Much is at stake there in both domestic policy and geostrategic terms.

Trump and Japan’s PM Takaichi met to reaffirm their close geopolitical and geoeconomic alliance. That now encompasses the BOJ and the Yen carry trade too: on which note, Japan’s big banks' domestic loan share is seeing its first sustained post-1991 bubble burst rise, exactly what the White House and Takaichi want as (defence) industry investment rises.

Nearby, South Korea’s President Lee urged the US to ease North Korea sanctions to encourage it to freeze its nuclear programs; and the EU announced it was moving towards an initial FTA with the Philippines, which sits within the US bloc in Asia – it just received a coastguard vessel from Taiwan, for example.

Where will this all end up? Markets must wait for the results of the big-name big game.

Relatedly, where will diesel end up? That question must be asked again today after Trump backed calls to halt US exports of refined products to address record high prices at home. Treasury Secretary Bessent said officials are now looking into if a total or partial diesel export ban is feasible.

As argued yesterday, in an integrated global energy market, such binary action wouldn’t achieve anything good for the US. However, why assume that backdrop?

The US didn’t export any crude at all from 1975 to 2015: shocking to some, perhaps, but true. Yes, the US wants to use “energy domination” as a strategic tool, which requires sharing it - yet why share with everybody, if to your own detriment? Today, why couldn’t the US opt for a partial, geopolitical diesel export ban and use economic statecraft like the Defence Production Act, to keep up refinery output of the ‘right’ products, more Jones Act waivers, to get fuel from the US Gulf to its west and northeast, and new state-backed mandated land and floating storage facilities at home and even regionally, if needed?

“Because markets?” If that is your answer, please recognize that such ideological thinking, for that is what it is at root, limits the ability to project potential future market outcomes, and sometimes expensively so.

Indeed, note that after Trump floated purchasing cheaper Belarussian potash, ‘elbows up’ liberal-world-order PM Carney floated his country and the US forming a self-reliant bloc for fertilisers. That is exactly what the US wants to do – but for far more than fertilisers, and with more countries than just Canada. For example, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum just had a “very good” call with Trump and touted progress towards a trade deal with what are rumored to be much tighter regional rules of origin.

As such, why not with refined crude products too? That doesn’t mean such a strand of US grand macro strategy would be well implemented – but that fact also doesn’t rule out it ever happening.

Meanwhile, against the above backdrop, the Fed’s Collins stated, “I now see an increased likelihood of future scenarios in which inflation remains notably above 2%.” To repeat what was said yesterday, the big trade is to correctly predict the big-name big game, not what a small-picture thinker like a central banker is saying long after the geopolitical facts were obvious.

If certain deals are struck, if certain countries are struck, if certain market flows are struck, energy prices can change dramatically – and then, suddenly, central bankers will be saying very different things. Those who listen only to them will think they are ahead of the curve rather than seeing they are behind the geopolitical and geoeconomic ones.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 11:00

Oil Holds Highs After Total Crude Stocks Rose, US Production & Gasoline Demand Dipped

Oil prices reversed initial losses (Brent back above $100) on Wednesday amid persistent Middle East supply risks, as investors weighed the prospect of improved Saudi export flows and U.S.-Iran diplomacy against the potential for further disruptions.

Saudi Arabia has begun testing its East-West pipeline for structural integrity and pressure, a step toward restoring oil flows after attacks knocked out the route earlier this month. Crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu could restart within a couple of days if the tests are successful, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

U.S. envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said in a post on X that American officials engaged in lengthy talks with the Iranian delegation through mediators on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. The mediators shuttled between the two sides throughout the day and completed a round of discussions that the U.S. hopes will prove constructive and promising, he said.

Reports of fresh attacks this morning didn't help any diplomatic optimism, but expectations (driven by last night's API report) suggest crude stocks stabilizing while product stocks are drawing down...

API

• Crude +1.8mm

• Cushing +2.1mm

• Gasoline -2.2mm

• Distillates -2.2mm

DOE

• Crude +2.97mm

• Cushing +2.27mm

• Gasoline -1.69mm

• Distillates -428k

Cushing stocks bounced off 'tank bottoms' and crude inventories jumped last week while product stocks both saw modest draws...

The SPR saw a very modest 405k barrel drain last week - the second tiny drain in a row since the war began. Last week's sizable Crude build was enbough to offset the drain and create only the second weekly build in total crude stocks since early April...

...as the caves hit 'tank' bottoms..

The dip in US distillates stocks leaves it 15% below seasonal averages (and a record low for this time of year)...

Crude production edged lower to 13.94 million barrels a day last week, down by 5,000 barrels a day from the previous week. The small drop came even as the number of rigs drilling rose for a third straight week, with another two units put into operation, according to Baker Hughes.

The 4-week moving average for US gasoline demand slipped by 49,000 per day for the EIA week, but remains within seasonal norms...

WTI was trading around $92 ahead of the official data and is maintaining those highs since...

Bank of America raised its Brent forecast for the second half of the year to $95 a barrel from $83, citing the large disruption to crude and refined-product supplies.

Continued skirmishes through year-end are now its most likely scenario, while alternative routes and escorted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have mitigated some of the shortfall, Francisco Blanch of BofA Global Research said.

Damaged infrastructure and geopolitical tensions make a rapid normalization unlikely, he added.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 10:50

Pezeshkian Lashes Out In UN Speech: The Nuclear Bombs Are In Israel, But Inspectors Sent To Iran Summary: Pezeshkian Addresses UN

As expected, the United States delegation immediately walked out as Iran's president began speaking, in front of what was not a very well attended address to begin with. He listed out a series of war crimes by the US aggressor but an accompanying theme was Iranian defiance while under the bombs. He also featured the Minab girls school attack by the US, underscoring that innocent children were killed - but contrasting this with Iran's response, saying it did not hit civilian populations

Iran's enemies have been make to learn we will not surrender, Pezeshkian declared. "They imposed the war on us, but we proved that we are not afraid of fighting a war, one that is defensive in nature."

Another theme was the ongoing hypocrisy over the fact that "atomic and nuclear bombs are in the hands of the Israeli regime, but the inspectors are sent to Iran." Pezeshkian further recalled that Iran while behind the table of negotiations came under the surprise bombs of US and Israeli warplanes. He repeated that "Israel has the [nuclear] bombs... and has not allowed a single inspection, yet they are rewarded."

He also said, "The US wants to sacrifice the population of a country in order to seek its illegitimate goals" and so "This will become a world much more dangerous for all of us."

On Hormuz and the question of negotiations, he said that the strait cannot be used for passage of weapons that will be used against Iran. While Iran is ready for diplomacy it strands ready to keep using its military power, the Iranian leader said. Overall, the speech did not focus very heavily at all on the prospect of new talks with Washington - something perhaps intentionally left out to appease domestic hardliners in the Islamic Republic.

*  *  *

Watch: Iran's President Pezeshkian speaks

Immediately upon the Iranian leaders starting his speech, the US delegation walks out.

Earlier: We once again have differing versions of a key meeting in the aftermath of a significant and rare US and Iranian diplomatic encounter. The Tuesday 3-hour meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York was headed by Tehran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, and on the other side by Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

The US side had called the talks "very productive" - with the suggestion that the Iranians were in the mood to compromise for the sake of achieving a swift ceasefire and peace deal. However, The Guardian reports Wednesday, "Iran has pushed back on claims that it dropped former preconditions for reopening the strait of Hormuz in surprise talks held in New York under the mediation of Qatar...".

via AFP

"Trump said the three-hour talks held in a room at the UN headquarters had gone very well and been very productive," the report continues. "He suggested further talks were possible imminently, which led to the price of a barrel of Brent crude to fall to below $100 (£75) for the first time in two weeks. Witkoff said the talks had been ‘encouraging, constructive and successful.'"

In Tehran, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei did not convey that there has been any shift in Iran's negotiating position:

"The interaction that took place with the American side was through Qatari mediation. This interaction was aimed at conveying Iran’s conditions, including the end of the war in all its dimensions, the cessation of American aggressive actions, the naval siege, and the economic war, the release of Iranian assets and so on."

The Iranian delegation conveyed to the US side the precise five conditions that Tehran has been pushing all along, the Iranian official insisted..

Among the 'biggest asks' - which the Trump administration has thus far shown openness to - is the release of all Iranian frozen assets. Instead, Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have only sought to tighten the anti-Tehran noose with 'Economic D-Day' and secondary sanctions targeting anyone still doing business with Iran.

On Sept. 20, the Iranian parliament speaker said that Tehran had "clearly communicated" its strict conditions to Washington via mediators:

• The chief negotiator warned that there would be “no return to the previous negotiating framework or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz” unless Iran's preconditions were met.
• “We must both fight and negotiate,” Qalibaf said in remarks to the parliament, criticizing what he described as approaches that offer “no clear path to ending” the conflict. “This view…effectively takes the country toward an endless, exhausting war.”

Iranian 'hardliners' are said to be outraged upon learning of the Tuesday Kushner-Witkoff meeting, and so much of Tehran's messaging in the aftermath has also been geared for domestic consumption:

Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi's move in dealing with Witkov was done without coordination with the relevant authorities, according to Tasnim, citing sources 

US state-funded RFERL has listed out the following responses from within Iran:

Some called for impeachment proceedings to be launched though they were not clear if they wanted Araqchi or Pezeshkian out of office. One user charged that the meeting was “an even bigger mistake” than Pezeshkian traveling to the US for the UN General Assembly.

“If anyone’s met and negotiated with the Americans, they better stay there. [Iran] is a country for honorable people,” wrote Vahid Azizi, an economist and former official at the Iranian National Tax Administration under hard-line late president Ebrahim Raisi.

Hard-line commentator Mohsen Maqsudi said it was “sheer stupidity” to negotiate with Washington while “under threat” and cause a drop in oil prices. Tehran has been hoping that the rise in fuel costs will pressure Trump into ending the war.

Hardliners ask: why negotiate with the Americans at all, and why provide optics which will push down the price of oil? Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei has sought to calm domestic criticisms on Wednesday:

“If the United States does not comply,” he said, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and negotiations will not resume. He added that the U.S. must first “earn the trust of the Iranian people.”

Today, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, we engaged in lengthy talks with the Iranian delegation through the mediators, who shuttled between the two sides throughout the day. They successfully completed a round of discussions that we hope will prove…

— Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (@SEPeaceMissions) September 22, 2026

Like Washington, the Iranian side does not want to 'endless war' - but has also vowed to outlast the Trump administration. The US President himself has lately conceded that the Iranians are waiting till after the November midterm elections to strike a deal, expecting that the Republics will lose Congress.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 10:46

San Francisco Sues Truth Social Over Early Access To Trump's Posts

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

San Francisco filed a lawsuit Sept. 22 against the parent company of Truth Social over President Donald Trump's posts, claiming the company created a corrupt business scheme through its $100,000-per-month Truth API plan that allows subscribers to get his posts before they become public.

City Attorney David Chiu claims in the lawsuit, filed in San Francisco Superior Court, that Trump Media and Technology Group created financial gain for Trump Media and the president through the new service.

The paid access, launched on Aug. 1, allows subscribers to pay up to $100,000 a month for early access to 10 high-profile Truth Social accounts, including Trump's.

Chiu alleges the operation monetizes preferential access to information derived from Trump's position and access to information unavailable to the general public, allegedly violating the public trust and California's Unfair Competition Law.

"Trump Media has unlawfully created, priced, marketed, and operated a commercial mechanism that knowingly and willfully facilitates Trump's use of nonpublic information for private profit," Chiu wrote in the lawsuit.

The claim also alleged Trump Media violated other federal laws that protect against insider trading, including the prohibition on taking material nonpublic information from a person with a duty of trust and confidence and selling it to people who might trade on it to get an unfair financial advantage.

Chiu also claims the service in unfair by violating the state's unfair competition law "because the harm they impose greatly outweighs the utility of their conduct."

"Defendant's scheme facilitates the appropriation of information held in the public trust for private gain," Chiu wrote in the lawsuit.

He alleges the practice disadvantages law-abiding businesses and ordinary Californians who participate in financial markets in various ways, including their retirement accounts, pensions, and other public sector funds.

"These everyday investors are placed at a substantial disadvantage to sophisticated firms willing and able to pay extraordinary sums for advanced access to market-moving information," the lawsuit states.

In an Aug. 10 earnings call, Trump Media's interim Chief Executive Kevin McGurn told investors the company had signed more than 10 customer agreements for the service.

The city is asking the court to order Truth Social's parent company to stop offering the Truth API service.

Trump Media, based in Florida, did not respond to a request for comment about the lawsuit.

Trump launched Truth Social in February 2022. He holds the largest share of the company with 41 percent of the stock.

The company's agreement includes an exclusivity window requiring the president to wait six hours after posting on Truth Social before posting the same message on any other social media platform, according to the lawsuit.

San Francisco's legal action was the second taken against Truth Social's early-access product.

Two news organizations - The Intercept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation - seeking to shut down the service sued the social media company Aug. 12 in Manhattan federal court making similar claims about the president selling priority access to government information to enrich himself.

The lawsuit targets Trump in his position as president, and Natalie J. Harp as his executive assistant. It also names Daniel Scavino, the White House deputy chief of staff and director of the White House personnel office.

The other accounts offered in the service include those of Vice President JD Vance, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., FBI Director Kash Patel, and the White House.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 10:20

10Y Yield Spikes Above 5.00% After Blowout Beats For US PMIs

With 'hard' economic data still somewhat muted, expectations were for a modest retracement in US PMIs from recently optimistic levels in preliminary September data.

Instead, the 'soft' survey data soared:

• Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 58.7 vs 55.8 exp (August: 56.5). 59-month high.

• Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 57.0 vs 53.7 exp (August: 53.9). 52-month high. 

The headline flash S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, registering the fastest expansion since July 2021 and an acceleration of growth for a fourth successive month.

Growth was driven by the service sector, which reported the steepest rise in output for over five years, but a welcome development in September was an accompanying acceleration of manufacturing output growth to the fastest since April 2022. New order inflows also gathered pace in both sectors, with growth reaching the highest since March 2022 in the service sector and the highest since April 2022 in manufacturing. In both cases, demand was buoyed principally by the domestic market, as goods export volumes continued to fall and services exports rose only modestly.

“US business continues to boom, with output growing at the fastest rate for over five years in September," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Historical comparisons suggest that the latest survey data point to annualized growth of around 5% with a 4% gain now signalled for the third quarter as a whole...

To put the growth surge in context, barring the spike in demand following the opening up of the economy after the COVID-19 lockdowns, the latest improvement in business activity is the greatest recorded since early 2015 with Williamson noting that:

"Business is clearly booming now in both manufacturing and services."

However, he adds, this growth is being accompanied by some of the most severe supply chain bottlenecks seen in the near-two-decade survey history if the pandemic is excluded, with companies also reporting increasing problems finding suitable staff.

Backlogs of work are consequently rising sharply. While this accumulation of uncompleted orders bodes well for the further expansion of output and capacity in the coming months, it also indicates that companies are developing more pricing power, and hence is a worry for the inflation outlook.

“Firms’ input costs have meanwhile jumped in September at the steepest rate for four years, with fuel and transport costs spiking higher thanks to the rise in oil prices seen during the month, which will add further to the upward pressure on selling prices and inflation in the coming months.”

As a result of all this, 10Y yields have spiked back above 5.00%...

...and rate-hike odds picked up for October.

That was quite a shocker!!

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ON US.$10 off one order of $30 or more. New or returning, one per person. YOUR EMAILGET MY $10 →Signs you up for ZeroHedge Store emails. $30 minimum, once per person, can't be combined. Every order helps support ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 09:55