Zero Hedge

Mediocre 30Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since August 2000

Mediocre 30Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since August 2000

After a subpar 3Y auction on Tuesday, and a stellar 10Y yesterday, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week's final coupon sale when it sold $22BN in 30Y paper in an average auction. 

The 30Y sale priced just after 1pm, stopping out at a 5.618% high yield, up sharply from 5.308% in September, and the highest since August 2000!

The high yield stopped through the When Issued by 0.1bps: good, but not as good as last month's amazing 2.7bps stop through.

The bid to cover was 2.542, a drop from last month's 2.612 but above the recent average of 2.411.

The internals were also average: indirects dropped from last month's near-record 79.5% to 72.3%, but that was also above the recent average of 69.1%. Directs took down 20.9%, up from 18.3% and in line with the recent average of 20.6%. And while not nearly as low as yesterday's record low, the Dealers award was 6.8%, one of the lowest on record but a rebound from September's record low 2.2%.

Overall this was a good auction, but would have been much better if the market had some time to digest the news that OpenAI's revenue was, in fact, much lower than it had previously disclosed (imagine that) which has helped send yields sharply lower as the Treasury market suddenly realizes it may not have to compete with the AI bubble for paper much longer... 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 13:39

Yes, The Public Education System Is Broken

Yes, The Public Education System Is Broken

Authored by Amy Denton via PJ Media,

I have been in education for a long time. My first teaching job came two weeks after my younger nephew was born. His birthday is next week, and he'll be 29. Take out the five years when I was working in retail and going to graduate school, and I've been a teacher for 24 years. There is not enough money in the world to tempt me back into public education. I'd rather stay poor, thank you. I keep hearing about a teacher shortage. That's incorrect. There's not a teacher shortage; there's a people willing to be treated like dirt shortage. Why? How did public education come to this sad state? Jonathan Turley's opinion piece in The Hill speaks to the problem and nails it right to the wall.

His opinion piece titled "The Blue-State Model for Education has Failed, and the Public has Caught On" states early on that one of the reasons the public schools have gone down the drain is because of the teachers' unions. Early in the article, Turley states, "New polling shows that K-12 education has now reached a record low in the number of people who are even "somewhat satisfied" with the state of education in the U.S." He then talks about the "education cartel," a self-sustaining, self-perpetuating alliance between unions and politicians. The cartel has rendered families and students irrelevant.

How is that possible? people ask. Without the students, there is no school system. It doesn't matter to the cartel. As long as the money keeps coming, which it does through dues, the cartel continues to operate. Personally, I have very little experience with the teachers' unions. I joined the American Federation of Teachers briefly so I could get some legal help regarding the principal at the high school where I taught. I was a second-year teacher, and he had determined that I needed to go. He was black, and I was white. The AFT pointed me to the union steward at my high school, a government teacher who was also one of the basketball coaches. He told me that there was nothing the principal could do to force me from the building. I had to leave on my own. I'm a stubborn soul, so I was determined that the principal was going to leave first. He did, two years later.

Was the advice I got worth the annual membership? Absolutely. But that was twenty years ago. I dropped my membership the next year. Today, I wouldn't join any teachers' union because at their very core, they are about representing the teachers, not the students. The unions protect every teacher, even the teachers who have no business being anywhere near a classroom. In the states where teachers are required to join a union, the power is tenfold over the states that give teachers a choice, the right-to-work states.

In states where union membership is required, even if the teacher is able to quit the union, the union will still take a deduction from the teacher's paycheck unless the teacher stands up and says "No." In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court in Janus vs. AFSCME (American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees) said that taking dues from non-union members was a violation of the First Amendment. This had an effect on union membership, which dropped by 10% after the ruling. However, the unions are not letting the decision slow them down. One year after the Janus ruling, a full 52% of teachers surveyed did not know they could leave the union without paying a fee. We are now eight years after the Janus decision, and the deep blue Democrat states with powerful teachers' unions are working to make it easy to join a union but very hard to leave.

Aren't unions supposed to protect workers and allow them to negotiate on a level playing field with their bosses? During the time of the Robber Barons in the early 1900s, yes. Today, most unions serve no purpose other than to enrich their heads. Both the head of the National Education Association (NEA) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) make six figures. The head of the Chicago Teachers Union makes six figures. Their salaries come from dues. Fewer dues-paying members, lower salaries. If the unions actually promoted better teaching and better practices, I would have no problem with them, but they don't. The problem? Money. As long as the money keeps flowing to the unions, they can do whatever they want.

While the NEA, the AFT, and state and city teachers' unions rake in the money, the students suffer. Children do not learn basic math and reading skills when they should and are simply passed along, because holding a child back today makes the school and the school district look bad. As I stated in another article, public schools are all about making things look good without any actual work being done. It's the Gilded Age all over again, but in public education.

Teachers are not allowed to give grades below 50 even if the student has never done any work. The teachers who question the policy are labeled as "difficult" or "troublemakers." Anything that makes the schools and school districts look less than perfect is seen as a problem. Rather than correcting the problem, schools cover it up. The "troublemakers" are given poor evaluations, denied the renewal of their teaching contracts, or even fired from the school and the district because they dare to question the system.

Students who graduate from high school with barely the basics struggle in college. Faculty at Harvard have been reduced to teaching high school math to incoming freshmen because the freshmen have no knowledge base. They never received it. This past May, the University of California reported an alarming lack of math knowledge among incoming students. The University of California, San Diego, faculty report showed a 30-fold increase since 2020 of incoming students whose math abilities fell below the high school level. Guess which political party most of the college professors in California vote for? California also has a very strong teachers' union. Ninety percent of teachers in California are union members. They are voting for their own destruction.

It's not just math that high school students are doing poorly in. The Los Angeles Times reported in 2023 that most California students cannot read or do math on grade level. How is that possible? When the people running the system don't care what the students can or can't do, it makes it easy to ignore the problems. It's not just California with poor test scores; the deep blue Democrat states have the biggest problems. It's not like they care.

What is the solution? Is there a solution? Turley states that school vouchers appear to be the only way to take control from the education cartel, by introducing real competition based on academic performance. I agree with him. I am 100% pro-school choice. Like him, I believe in the public schools. My parents, I, my siblings, and their children went to public schools, but what's going on today in the public school system is not acceptable.

School systems cannot simply keep churning out people who do not have the basic skills needed to survive in life. School vouchers, which allow parents to choose which school their children attend, take care of the biggest problem in public education: money. The less money the school systems get, the less there is to waste. When parents have a choice of schools to send their children to, very few choose to send their children to substandard schools.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 13:15

Apple CEO Ternus Faces First Big Test As Bernstein Finds Soft US iPhone 18 Pro Demand

Apple CEO Ternus Faces First Big Test As Bernstein Finds Soft US iPhone 18 Pro Demand

John Ternus' first big test at Apple is launching the premium iPhone 18 lineup and the likely delayed iPhone Duo, which reportedly faces production difficulties ahead of its October launch.

The latest sign of iPhone demand came Monday from Bernstein technology analyst Mark Newman, who said global iPhone sales rose in August, extending an 18-month streak of annual volume growth, though early demand indications for the new premium 18 Pro lineup softened in the US and several other major markets.

"Initial market feedback on iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max is mixed vs. the 17 lineup. In the US, Pro & Pro Max demand is down low single digits YoY with Pro waiting times shorter vs. Pro Max were longer. China, however, saw launch week sales up 12% YoY. Other regions were mixed," Newman wrote in the note.

Global iPhone sales rose 7% from a year earlier, while revenue increased 13%, supported by a 6% increase in average selling prices, Newman said. Volume growth slowed from 14% in July.

Newman's new figures show the iPhone 17 cycle remains robust. The lineup sold about 174 million units in the 12 months through August, roughly 18% more than the previous model over the same period.

China provided a stronger result, with launch-week sales of the new Pro models rising 12%. India's first three days of sales jumped 19%, while early demand appeared softer in Japan, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates.

Newman said Apple's fourth-quarter shipments tracked modestly below historical patterns through August. Combined July and August shipments totaled 33 million units, 57% of the quarter's consensus forecast of 58.2 million, versus a historical average of 60%.

The delayed launch of the base iPhone 18 until spring 2027 will certainly weigh on volume. MacRumors also reported potential iPhone Duo launch delays due to production woes. A greater proportion of premium models at higher prices due to a chip shortage has weighed on consumer demand, but that demand may return next year when the base model debuts.

Newman noted of the US market, "We expect robust demand for the DUO, which opens for pre-order on Oct 16, and ships Oct 23; early hands-on reviews are largely positive, and Counterpoint estimated ~6mn units to be sold in 2026, supply permitting."

Newman adds more color:

For the rest of Apple's supply chain: the late shipment of iPhone Duo and delayed launch of iPhone 18 base model weighed on near-term demand for Apple suppliers such as Largan. 

However, the Apple supply chain continues to outperform the Android ecosystem, and we believe the upcoming product cycles, including the iPhone 18 launch in 1H27 and the 20th-anniversary iPhone lineup in 2H27, should sustain investor sentiment and underpin valuations. 

Newman maintained his "Outperform" rating on Apple and a 12-month price target of $370, citing the strength of the existing iPhone cycle and upcoming product launches.

Among Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 58% (about 33 analysts) rate Apple a "Buy," 30% (about 17 analysts) rate it "Neutral," and six rate it a "Sell." The average 12-month price target among the analysts tracked is around $334.

Jefferies and Bank of America analysts have also noted soft iPhone 18 demand in various major markets, as it appears that chip shortages pushing handset prices to unaffordable levels are weighing on consumer demand. Then again, there's also buy-now-pay-later, or, like many folks these days, consumers can take out longer-term loans for their phones.

Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 12:40

US Government Moves $1BN In Seized Bitcoin After $770MM Transfers

US Government Moves $1BN In Seized Bitcoin After $770MM Transfers

By Cointelegraph

The US government completed another major transaction involving seized cryptocurrency hours after moving a significant amount of Bitcoin to a Coinbase Prime wallet.

Blockchain data from Wednesday showed that a wallet associated with crypto seized by the US government had transferred more than 12,267 Bitcoin (BTC), worth more than $1 billion at the time of publication. The move came just hours after similar transfers from the government totaling $770 million in BTC to a Coinbase Prime wallet.

Arkham Research linked the wallet moving the Bitcoin to the recovery of funds from the 2016 Bitfinex hack, in which hackers stole 119,756 BTC. The identity of the owner of the recipient address was unknown at the time of publication.

Cointelegraph reached out to the US Marshals and the Department of Justice for comment on the Coinbase Prime transfers but did not receive an immediate response.

Estimates suggest the US government held 328,372 BTC as of 2026, resulting from seized assets in criminal cases and investigations. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March 2025 establishing a strategic Bitcoin and crypto reserve, but lawmakers are still attempting to codify the order into law.

Previous movements from the government-labeled wallet have sparked speculation about potential liquidations, but a sale would conflict with US President Donald Trump’s March 2025 executive order, which specified that seized Bitcoin should not be sold and should become part of the country’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

In July, the US government moved $297 million in Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) to Coinbase Prime, with funds originating from high-profile US government crypto seizures.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 12:25

Pages