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Stocks Set To Post Fresh All Time High As Tech Euphoria Returns

Stocks Set To Post Fresh All Time High As Tech Euphoria Returns

Futures are fractionally higher, as they have been much of this supercharged week which pushed stocks to new all tim ehighs, amid quiet news flow this morning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after the index closed at a record on Thursday. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%, with the tech benchmark set for a 1.2% gain in the week. Momentum darling Sandisk rallied almost 6% in premarket trading after surging double digits yesterday and is now up 60% from its lows less than two weeks ago;  Mag 7 stocks mostly unchanged with MSFT and META showing some modest declines as investors continued to focus on OpenAI’s plans for a Wall Street debut. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher, led by 30y. A Reuters article reported that BOJ is eyeing September rate hike and faster pace of tightening, affirming the recent hawkish bias: OIS now sees 81% probability of a September hike (vs. ~65% last Friday). Commodities are modestly higher: oil moved 0.6% higher; gold added 0.1% this morning. US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.5%, Microsoft -0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet 0.0%, Apple 0.0%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta -0.1%)

  • Dronemakers including AeroVironment (AVAV) are higher after the Trump administration said it is applying a 100% tariff on imports of unmanned aircraft systems and their components. AeroVironment shares are up 3%.
  • Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) rises 8% after Jefferies started coverage on the semiconductor manufacturing company with a buy rating, citing the firm’s growth profile.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) falls 5% after the semiconductor capital equipment company’s estimate-topping forecast met with tepid investor reaction following the stock’s frenetic rally this year.
  • ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) sinks 14% after the company pushed back the timeline for the biotech to reach cash-flow breakeven to the end of 2027. The firm’s management previously expected to reach that mark by the middle of 2027.
  • Capricor (CAPR) surges 100% after the drug developer said it plans to amend its biologics license application for its drug to treat a rare muscle disease and that the FDA has indicated it is willing to review this amendment. The news spurred an upgrade at Cantor.
  • Gemini Space Station (GEMI) falls 6% after the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins reported a wider-than-expected adjusted Ebitda loss for the second quarter amid crypto trading declines.
  • Globant (GLOB) falls 11% after the IT-services company cut its full-year forecast. It also gave a third-quarter forecast that was weaker than the analyst consensus estimate.
  • Nubank (NU) gains 10% after the Brazilian fintech reported second-quarter net income that beat the average analyst estimate and saw its 15 to 90-day non-performing loan ratio improve.
  • Reddit (RDDT) jumps 10% as the social media company is set to join the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading on Aug. 18.
  • Sandisk (SNDK) rises 6%, set to extend Thursday’s 14% rally, as JPMorgan assigns an overweight rating following the firm’s investor day.
  • York Space (YSS) is down 17% after the space and defense company cut the revenue outlook for the full year.

Tech shares again lifted the S&P 500 to fresh highs this month as investors piled into beaten-down semiconductor and other AI-related stocks, with second-quarter earnings exceeding already lofty expectations. After a benign consumer inflation print and producer price data this week, US retail sales numbers on Friday could provide more clues on the direction of Fed policy ahead of next month’s meeting, although according to real-time BofA card spending data, expect a big miss when the data is released at 8:30am.

And speaking of Bank of America, its CIO Michael Hartnett said the “door wide open for bulls to rip risk higher.” He cites soaring earnings, a $10 trillion wealth surge in 2026 and over $1 trillion of AI capex expected in 2027. But most notably he says AI is now so big it is the market, and policymakers simply can not allow stocks to fall as it will spark an economic crash. 

Elsewhere, the chip bubble is baaaaack: South Korea’s Kospi Index - a bellwether for retail and momentum euhoria in chip names - added over 2% Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 11% and snapping a seven-week losing streak. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both advanced more than 15% over the past five days.

“A huge amount of hyperscaler money is flowing into hardware,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “That is translating into extremely strong sales and profit growth for hardware companies. Investors are returning to the idea of, ‘let’s look at the earnings themselves again.’”

Meanwhile, the threat of lofty energy prices reigniting inflation remains. Brent crude jumped almost 2% on Friday, before reversing the move to trade around $87 a barrel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised unprecedented “economic isolation” for Iran and a “one-two punch” that includes the continued blockade of the country’s ports. 

European shares hover near record highs with continued support from the artificial intelligence trade and after the region’s equity funds notched their largest inflows in six months. The Stoxx 600 is little changed as software and IT stocks rally, boosted by a report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. HelloFresh falls to a record low after a downgrade at Barclays. Here are the biggest movers:

  • European software and IT stocks post broad-based gains on Friday, with sentiment boosted by a Reuters report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. SAP, Dassault Systemes and Nemetschek are among gainers.
  • Maersk shares gain as much as 6.5% after an upgrade to hold from sell. The shipping company appears to have scope for a further guidance upgrade, and “ample room” for share buybacks over 2027-28.
  • Aviva shares rise slightly, briefly reaching their highest level since May 2018, after the insurer’s first-half operating profit exceeded estimates. Analysts note the beat was supported by reserve releases, tempering the market reaction.
  • Autostore shares extend a post-earnings rally after the stock was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, which cites multiple consecutive quarters of improving momentum, stronger customer engagement and a growing backlog at the warehouse automation firm.
  • DFDS shares rise as much as 21%, the steepest gain since 2008, after the shipping and logistics firm raised its revenue growth outlook for the year.
  • Talanx shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most in over a year, after the insurer’s second-quarter net income came in comfortably ahead of estimates and supported a lift to its guidance for the full year.
  • Napatech shares rally as much as 25%, the most in over three months, after the Danish company that provides Programmable Network Interface Cards used in data centers said it has secured a follow-on production order related to a major AI-infrastructure design win secured in 2025.
  • Cohort shares gain as much as 7.4%, the most since early July, after the electronic and surveillance technology solutions company announces that its German unit ELAC was awarded a contract to supply integrated sonar systems for the Polish Orka submarine program in collaboration with Saab.
  • VZ Holding shares jump as much as 10% after the provider of investment advisory services beat expectations in the first half.
  • HelloFresh shares fall to a record low as Barclays downgrades to underweight and assigns a Street-low price target, saying questions remain about the meal kit provider’s top line.
  • EnergieKontor shares plummet as much as 18% and hit their lowest level since 2020 after the wind-energy producercut its earnings goal after markets closed yesterday, just hours after reaffirming its guidance.
  • GB Group shares fall as much as 27%, their steepest drop since 2009, after the identity verification and fraud prevention company lowered its full-year revenue guidance.

Asian stocks rose, poised for their best week in two months, as the AI tech rally regains momentum on fading concerns over Federal Reserve rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.7% Friday, extending its weekly gain to about 3%. South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi gained for a fifth-straight session, its longest streak since mid-June, while Japanese equities also advanced. Indonesian stocks gained after an address to the nation by President Prabowo Subianto before its budget. After last month’s volatile selloff, the AI trade is getting back on track following the latest corporate results. Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan are set for their biggest weekly foreign inflow in months, a sign that global investors are returning after a historic selloff.  “Once traders start searching for yield again, they tend to gravitate back toward that AI and tech picture,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Bloomberg TV. “I think that the US earnings season went some way into dispelling some of the fears that were building up about valuations and sustainability of operating margins.” Elsewhere, Hang Seng had its biggest weekly decline in seven weeks. Vietnam fell most in Asia on financial concerns. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% and is on course for its largest decline since last week’s payrolls miss. The Norwegian krone is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.5%, also helped by higher oil prices. The kiwi is also at top of the leaderboard after underperforming on Thursday. USD/JPY edges down toward 159. European stocks are little changed while futures are pointing to a fairly flat open on Wall Street.

In rates, long-end Treasuries hold losses in early US session, with yields higher by around 1-2bp and extending this week’s curve-steepening move amid similar price action in European bond markets. The US sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield in a quarter century on Thursday, underscoring the premium investors are demanding to finance the nation’s deficits. US 10-year yield near 4.65% is less than 1bp higher on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by 2.5bp and 2bp; WTI crude futures are up about 0.5%, off session highs. With front-end and belly yields edging lower, US 2s10s spread widens nearly 2bp to 52bp, widest since May 21 and near 200-DMA which has broadly held since March; 5s30s spread is more than 2bp wider near 92bp, last seen May 14. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs rise 3 bps each. IG credit new-issue slate empty so far. Three companies sold a combined $5.85 billion on Thursday, paying about 11bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.6 times oversubscribed. Start of next week has the potential to be relatively active.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures advance as talks around reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue to show limited progress. Brent crude futures rise 0.7% to around $87.60 a barrel and that’s hampered bonds.

US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • The United States on Thursday said that it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and would ratchet up economic pressure on Tehran as ceasefire talks have floundered, global oil supply is dropping and regional tensions are rising. RTRS
  • The US is pressing NATO allies to demonstrate support for Donald Trump’s policies, as it reviews potential troop cuts in Europe. BBG
  • Ukraine has sent Russia an offer suggesting they both halt attacks ‌on civilian targets in the Black Sea, a source said, after mounting strikes on vessels and ports there raised fears over global food supplies. RTRS
  • China’s auto factories are building so many cars for export that the global shipping industry can’t keep up. Specialized car carriers, essentially floating parking garages, are booked out years ahead to export cars from Chinese factories. Rates to charter ships are up 65% this year on the surging demand to move vehicles out of China. WSJ
  • Tariffs latest: The US is imposing a 100% duty on some imported drones and their components, a move that may significantly affect China. Australia said the US agreed to “consider full exemption or, at the very least, no increase” to the tariffs. BBG
  • The BoJ is set to raise interest rates as soon as ‌September and is considering hiking more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, said three sources familiar with its thinking. RTRS
  • Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen are creating fresh opportunities as investors return to carry trades — borrowing the low-yielding currency to buy higher-returning assets. BBG
  • Leading US AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic are releasing cheaper models as they fight to retain cost-conscious customers who are switching to cut-price alternatives from Chinese rivals. The price war comes as rising AI bills push companies to curb usage and seek cheaper models, helping Chinese developers including Moonshot and DeepSeek make inroads with users from Silicon Valley to Europe. FT
  • OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40 billion based on its current performance, people familiar said. The ChatGPT maker’s revenue has accelerated in recent months. BBG
  • Fitch affirmed the US at AA+, outlook stable, while it stated that the US rating is supported by a large economy, high per capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility. However, it also commented that labour demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026, while it expects inflation to move towards the target by year-end 2028.
  • US White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker will leave the administration in coming weeks: Axios

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region only partially sustained the positive handover from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, and the Nasdaq outperformed on tech strength, as softer PPI data further added to the case for the Fed to refrain from hiking rates in September. Nonetheless, the positive momentum began to wane overnight with little fresh major catalysts and after US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components. ASX 200 was pressured as the strength in tech was overshadowed by losses in the heavy industries, including miners, materials, resources and industrials, while participants also digested earnings releases. Nikkei 225 gained and briefly reclaimed the 69,000 level before paring some of the advances, while participants continue to second-guess whether the BoJ will speed up the pace of rate increases. KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum, but is off earlier highs with resistance at the 7,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued amid a slew of earnings releases including from SMIC and JD.com, with the latter pressured despite beating on the top and bottom lines, while sentiment was also not helped by trade-related frictions with the US to impose tariffs of up to 100% on drones, which seems to be aimed at China and DJI, which holds around an 80% share of the global drone market.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC keeps 7-day reverse repo operation volume at zero, while it injects CNY 349bln via overnight reverse repos.
  • Taiwan raises 2026 GDP forecast to +11.05% (prev. +9.64%).
  • Hong Kong revises 2026 GDP forecast to 3.5-4.5% (prev. 2.5-3.5%).

European bourses are broadly softer across the board, outside of the DAX 40 given the gains in SAP (see more below). Over in Asia, memory chip names (Kioxia +3.8%, SK Hynix +3.3%) climbed in Asia-Pac trade after Sandisk gave a positive outlook at its investor day. Sandisk said it expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens between 2028-30 and also plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. Sectors are mixed. Tech is the sector outperformer, followed by Media and Insurance. To the downside is Utilities, while Basic Resources and Health Care also underperform.

Top European News

  • Reform UK leader Farage won the Clacton by-election with 22,293 votes.

FX

  • DXY gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 99.70 base, despite higher energy prices (Brent +1.5%), which are typically constructive for the USD. Weakness in the Buck likely comes as participants digest the July series of data, which contained dovish components. CPI/PPI were in-line and soft, respectively, while the payrolls figure will likely give food for Fed doves. Today, USD is set to digest US Retail Sales and the UoM survey.
  • USD/JPY -0.2% and continues choppy action, this time after another BoJ source said the Bank was set to raise interest rates as soon as September; this saw the pair slip 17 pips to a 159.15 base, a level which is being tested at the time of writing. Currently, markets assign a c. 80% probability of such action in September. More pertinently, Bloomberg sources on Thursday said the Takaichi government is said to support faster BoJ rate hikes. The piece also said the bank could raise rates in either September or October; the timing of the latest source potentially the reason why this JPY strength has stuck.
  • Kiwi is rebounding vs the USD after losses following Thursday's soft inflation expectations survey; action which has entirely faded with the pair ~0.2% higher than pre-data. NZD/USD +0.4%, once again above all significant DMAs.
  • NOK is the G10 outperformer, strength which is likely a function of oil prices despite the Norges Bank hold on Thursday raising questions over the removal of the tightening bias from the statement in September. Brent Oct’26 is firmer by 1.5%, after rising throughout the EU morning without a clear catalyst. NOK/SEK sees continues support above 1.00, while USD/NOK broke out of recent ranges

Fixed Income

  • USTs continue to fall further from Thursday's peak of 109-03+, after failing to hold above the current range highs of 109-01. The 30-year auction was soft, showing a 0.4bp tail, below-average bid-to-cover and above-average dealer allocation, all pointing to weaker demand despite the considerably higher outright yield on offer. Following the auction, analysts at TD Securities said this is problematic for the Treasury as it must fund the government at more expensive levels. Looking ahead, US Retail sales is on the docket.
  • Gilts opened lower and trades at the lower end of its 86.90-87.26 range, given the steady climb in energy prices. On the political front, Reform leader Farage won the Clacton by-election as expected. Following the count, More in Common's Tryl told Politico that despite that impressive raw vote total by Farage, the vote share was at the lower end of expectations, which shows that his opponents are highly motivated to turn out. Focus now turns to the outcome of the Parliamentary investigation into Farage over recent donations.
  • Bunds continue to trade counter to energy prices, currently trading at the bottom end of its 124.72-125.01 range. A light docket ahead in Europe, given the summer period.
  • Australia sells AUD 1bln November 2032 bonds, b/c 3.75, avg. yield 4.6868%.

Commodities

  • Crude futures have been grinding higher throughout the European morning despite the lack of a clear driver. Overnight, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Meanwhile, this morning, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen. Furthermore, UKMTO says a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly following comments by ADNOC stating that two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
  • There have also been a couple of headlines regarding Russia/Ukraine/NATO: NATO HQ confirmed allied jets were scrambled after a drone entered Latvian airspace. Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible.
  • WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures have been edging higher since European players entered the market. Brent trades towards the top end of a USD 86.20-88.60/bbl range at the time of writing whilst WTI sits towards the upper end of a USD 80.71-82.99/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer by almost 2% intraday and north of EUR 61.50/MWh.
  • Metals are flat/mixed amid a lack of drivers and in what is seemingly a summer lull. Spot gold resides towards the middle of a USD 4,322-4,363/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s 4,343/oz low. Spot silver ekes mild gains and resides towards the top end of a USD 63.51-64.73/oz range after briefly falling under yesterday’s USD 64.22/oz low. 3M LME copper remains above USD 14k/t in a USD 14,045.20- 14,125.28/t range.
  • US VP Vance said goal one is to keep oil and gasoline affordable for the US.
  • China's State Planner said domestic gasoline and diesel retail price caps will be cut by CNY 230/T and CNY 220/T, respectively; effective on August 14.
  • Ukrainian official said if a ceasefire is implemented in the Black Sea region, Ukraine could restore grain exports through its seaports within one month.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components, which imposes 100% tariffs on certain-sized drones and a 25% tariff on smaller-sized drones. 10% tariffs will be imposed on drones from the UK and 15% tariffs on drones from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan. Tariffs will take effect 21 days after signing, while for components of drones that are not particularly sensitive, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after signing.
  • Australian PM Albanese said he spoke with US President Trump and reviewed advancements under the AUKUS defence agreement, while he added that the AUKUS initiative continues full steam ahead. Albanese said he raised the issue of tariffs with Trump and urged him to consider full exemption, while he added that Trump would consider Australia's request.
  • Brazil began analysing the reciprocity process on US tariffs, while it was notifying the US about the process and requesting that diplomatic consultations be held.

Central Banks

  • Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said they have been getting a little bit better readings on inflation, which he hopes will continue and noted that a lot of inflation drivers were from tariffs, oil and things they hope to be one-time increases. Furthermore, he stated that if they can get some of that into the rearview mirror, they can get inflation heading back to 2%, and that the US economy is steady.
  • The BoJ is reportedly set to raise interest rates as soon as September and also considering accelerating subsequent hikes, according to reports.
  • RBA's Harper will depart from the monetary policy board, and Melinda Cilento has been named as a part-time member of the RBA board.

Geopolitics: Iran

  • US VP Vance said the US has a lot of tools at its disposal for Iran.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, targeting its bank accounts and digital currencies worldwide, while the pressure campaign caused the collapse of the Iranian banking sector. Bessent added that measures against Iran will be a combination of economic isolation and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and he expects more announcements on Iran next week. Furthermore, he said they will take actions unprecedented in the history of economic isolation of a country and will prevent anything from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen, Press TV reported.
  • UAE's ADNOC said two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Following this, UKMTO said a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • US CENTCOM commander and Saudi Crown Prince MBS discuss mutual defence cooperation and efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, according to Saudi State News Agency.
  • US President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner is to visit Israel next week for consultations on the situation in Gaza, according to Axios
  • Airstrikes hit separatist militant group in Erbil, Iraq, according to Tehran Times.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible, IFX reported.
  • Drones hit area around Russian Baltic seaport of Ust-Luga, according to the regional governor.
  • Latvia issued an air threat alert in areas bordering Russia and Belarus, while NATO fighter jets shot down a drone over northeastern Latvia. It was also reported that Finland restricted aviation and maritime traffic in eastern Gulf of Finland.

Geopolitics: Other

  • North Korea condemned US-South Korean military drills and said the military exercises are more provocative than last year, while it added that US-Japan-South Korea military cooperation is turning into a nuclear alliance. Furthermore, North Korea vowed to respond to a new level of threat with a new level of deterrent and will continue to expand nuclear deterrence, according to KCNA.
  • Japanese Regional Coast Guard said four Chinese ships intruded into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%
  • 10:00 am: United States Aug P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55, prior 55.2

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Right. I’m about to go off on holiday to find somewhere cooler after what was the 5th hottest day ever in the UK yesterday. I say 5th hottest but that is recorded history.  Apparently the Early Eocene Epoch some 55 million years ago was the last time these sorts of temperatures were the norm in the UK. Admittedly the country was nearer the Mediterranean then! For the next couple of weeks you'll mostly find me bathing in an Alpine lake or shouting at my children. Henry and Peter will be holding the fort while I'm gone. See you on the other side.
Before I disappear in search of snow and ice, markets have generally been enjoying the heat. Over the last 24 hours, investors have continued to dial back the chances of a Fed rate hike, sending the S&P 500 (+0.65%) to fresh highs. The biggest catalyst was a downside surprise in the US PPI inflation print, while lower oil prices gave the doves an extra tailwind, with Brent crude (-2.15%) finally snapping a six-day winning streak. As a result, pricing for a September Fed hike fell to just 35% by the close, down from above 50% on the morning of Wednesday’s CPI release, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) also moved sharply lower as markets embraced the more dovish outlook.

That PPI release set the tone for the day, as it cemented the view after Wednesday’s CPI that the Fed didn’t need to rush into rate hikes. The data showed monthly headline PPI unchanged in July (vs. +0.2% expected), which meant the year-on-year reading fell back to +4.7% (vs. +4.9% expected). So the release supported the view that the energy shock was fading, and the Fed wouldn’t need to react next month. As ever, there was also some focus on the categories that feed into PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred measure. But those were generally mixed and offset each other, with strength in portfolio management (+6.5%) offset by weakness in other categories like airfares (-3.4%). In net terms, the PPI details added a one basis point to our US economists’ estimate for July core PCE inflation. 

The downside PPI surprise led to an immediate reaction in pricing for the next Fed meeting. For instance, the probability of a September hike had been at 40% right before the release, but was down to 35% by the close. Indeed, the last time a hike by September was considered that remote was back in June, before Warsh’s first press conference was unexpectedly hawkish. That said, there was a reluctance to go much lower on market pricing given we’ve still got the August jobs report and CPI report before the next FOMC meeting. And looking further out, futures are now pricing in a 92% chance of a hike by the December meeting, also the first time since June that this has been less than fully priced.

We did hear from a few Fed speakers as well, but there weren’t really any surprises from a market point of view. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that “I think we need to act now”, but she’d already dissented for a rate hike in July, so that wasn’t a surprise. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a non-voter this year) was more dovish, pointing out that much of today’s high inflation “has come from shocks, which should pass”.  

This backdrop of softer inflation and more dovish rates pricing led to a big rally for US Treasuries yesterday. In fact, the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) fell to 4.64%, whilst the rate-sensitive 2yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 4.14%, its lowest level in almost a month. And the 30yr yield declined by -4.5bps, though we did see the highest yield at a US Treasury auction since 2001 as $25bn of 30yr bonds were issued at 5.216%. In Asia this morning US yields are back up a basis point across the curve.

The dovish momentum received further help yesterday from lower oil prices, which finally ended their run of gains over the last week. It wasn’t a huge fall, but Brent crude was down -2.15% by the close to $87.07/bbl, ending a run of 6 consecutive daily gains. Brent did rise from its intraday low of $85.85/bbl after the Houthi-run Saba news agency reported that the Houthis were targeting the Aramco refinery in the Jizan region. And earlier on in the session, Iran’s state-run IRIB cited a joint military command spokesman, who said that no ship could safely transit the Strait of Hormuz without approval. But overall, in the absence of material news, some of recent run up in geopolitical risk premium was taken out of oil markets, not least given the sizeable recent shipping via Hormuz by shuttle transfers and ships operating without transponders. Brent is flat this morning.  

Beyond the crude oil moves, it’s worth noting the continued tightness in refined product markets. Crack spreads in the US and Europe remain close to the highs reached in late July. So while crude oil prices are down by over 25% from their spring peak, the decline in refined product prices has been more modest. For perspective, while Brent crude is now +20% above pre-Iran war levels, US wholesale gasoline prices are about +50% higher and European diesel prices are about +60% higher. Just ahead of filling our car before the 14-hour drive to the Alps!

Whilst the PPI reading and lower oil prices were the main market drivers yesterday, we also had the US weekly initial jobless claims. They were a bit higher than expected, rising to 209k in the week ending August 8 (vs. 202k expected), so again that cemented the view that the Fed could stay on hold at the next meeting. And in turn, all this dovish newsflow benefited US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.65%) at another record. This was aided by a recovery for the Magnificent 7 (+1.20%) as well as tech stocks more broadly as the NASDAQ (+0.81%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.46%) also advanced. But it was a positive day more broadly with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.74%) outperforming and hitting a new high as well.  

Earlier in Europe, markets hadn’t been quite as resilient, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) edging lower for a second consecutive session. In part, that reflected Europe’s smaller exposure to tech, and also that ECB pricing didn’t move as much as Fed pricing did. Indeed, investors continue to price a September rate hike as a 90% chance for the ECB. So yields saw a comparatively smaller fall in Europe than the US, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.5bps) and BTPs (-4.8bps) ending the day lower. UK gilts were a particular underperformer, with the 10yr yield only down -1.9bps after the monthly GDP print surprised on the upside in June, unexpectedly rising by +0.3% (vs. -0.1% expected).  

In Asia this morning, the KOSPI (+1.99%) continues its recent comeback, extending its rally to a fifth straight session, with the Nikkei (+0.56%) also firm. In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.93%) and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (-1.01%) are under pressure, while mainland Chinese benchmarks are seeing modest declines, with the CSI 300 (-0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.21%) edging lower. S&P 500 futures are flat with the Nasdaq equivalent -0.15%. European futures are back up a quarter to half a percent as I type.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US retail sales for July, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there’s also the second estimate of Q2 GDP.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:04

Unusual Machines Jumps After Trump Slaps 100% Drone Tariff In "Hard Decoupling" From China

Unusual Machines Jumps After Trump Slaps 100% Drone Tariff In "Hard Decoupling" From China

Shares of drone makers AeroVironment and Aevex, and "pure-play" drone-parts company Unusual Machines, are higher in premarket trading Thursday after the Trump administration signed a proclamation imposing tariffs of as much as 100% on imported drones and components, part of a broader effort to decouple the nation's drone supply chain from China.

Drones weighing more than 55 pounds, in other words, Group 3 drones, equipped with thermal imaging and certain sensitive components will face the top rate. Smaller, less-capable drones (< Group 3) and other parts will be subject to a 25% duty. Qualifying imports from the European Union and several US trading partners will face a 15% levy, while UK products will be taxed at 10%.

"The tariffs will take effect 21 days after signing. For components of drones that are not particularly sensitive, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after signing," the White House wrote in a fact sheet describing the new drone tariffs.

"In the long term, we're probably slipping towards an outcome of a hard decoupling for at least certain types of drones," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics, who Bloomberg quoted. "I think this is part of a broader pattern in which both the US and China uphold their basic trade agreement but continue to take relatively low-grade actions against each other."

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, said these drone tariffs are all "about reducing dependence on China for advanced drones and, importantly, components, as previous FCC barriers did not cover imports of grandfathered models and many drone components."

AeroVironment and Aevex were marginally higher in premarket trading. However, Unusual Machines, which we've labeled a "pure-play" NDAA-compliant drone-component manufacturer...

... jumped 13% and continues to move higher since our initial coverage began on July 23 (+54%). 

Related

In the previous report, we focused on AeroVironment, Ondas, Red Cat, AEVEX, Redwire, Insitu and Teledyne FLIR. Private companies covered included Anduril, Skydio, Shield AI, Quantum Systems, Performance Drone Works, DZYNE, Firestorm Labs, and Neros.

Read the full report on how to profit from the "Asymmetric Warfare Boom." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 07:45

Saudi Oil Fleet Increasingly Going 'Dark' Due To Houthi Blockade

Saudi Oil Fleet Increasingly Going 'Dark' Due To Houthi Blockade

Via The Cradle

Yemen's maritime blockade on Saudi shipping has pushed the kingdom’s crude exports off the radar in the Red Sea, with tankers forced to turn off their tracking signals to avoid attack and every recent cargo loaded at Yanbu sailing "dark," Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Saudi export volumes can no longer be independently verified as a result of the increased invisibility, with ship-tracking firms issuing conflicting estimates of the same shipments, figures the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and traders use to gauge world supply and forecast the market. 

via AFP

Three firms tracking the same week beginning August 3 reached three different conclusions.

Vortexa measured a modest decline at Yanbu, to 2.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.71 million, while Kpler reported a collapse to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million, and AXSMarine recorded a rise, to 850,000 bpd from about 420,000. 

Vortexa analyst George Morris said no Yanbu cargo lifted last week had its Automatic Identification System (AIS) switched on. 

"Last week Yanbu liftings were all conducted dark. We're not seeing any loadings with Automatic Identification System (AIS) on at the moment," he said. 

Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe said about 70 percent of loadings along the Saudi west coast were dark in recent weeks, and that every Yanbu cargo loaded since 23 July involved a vessel without continuous AIS coverage. 

An average of 32 vessels per day passed through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait last week, according to Kpler data. That is down from roughly 50 a day before Ansarallah announced the blockade.

Saudi oil is meanwhile moving north instead, reaching the Mediterranean either through the Suez Canal or along Egypt's SUMED Pipeline, which runs overland from the Red Sea terminal of Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir on the coast.

Satellite imagery reviewed by independent maritime data analyst Phileeppos in a post on X points to a far steeper fall, with loading activity at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminals down by roughly half since the Yemeni blockade took effect on 20 July.

Tankers at the King Fahd and Muajjiz terminals were estimated to be holding an average of 10 million barrels per satellite pass beforehand, against around 5 million after.

This comes as Turkey confirmed its entry into a Saudi-led maritime coalition formed to protect shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced in a recent statement.

The 13-country alliance, headquartered in Riyadh, was announced last month after the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) imposed its blockade on shipments already diverted into the Red Sea by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The YAF has described the measure as a “blockade for blockade” strategy, answering more than a decade of blockade and war waged against Yemen by the kingdom.

Ankara's participation deepens a trilateral defense pact signed in Mecca last week, committing Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan to collective security.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 07:20

Only 3% Of Americans Trust AI "A Great Deal" With Their Money - But One In Five Are Using It Anyway

Only 3% Of Americans Trust AI "A Great Deal" With Their Money - But One In Five Are Using It Anyway

A new Gallup survey finds a wide gap between the financial advice Americans say they trust and the advice they actually take.

Just 3% of Americans say they have "a great deal" of confidence in artificial intelligence to help manage their money - while about 30% express "a great deal" or "some" confidence. Moreover, roughly one in five people who sought financial advice in the past year used AI to get it.

The poll, conducted March 20 - April 6, sampled 5,075 U.S. adults aged 21 and older using Gallup's probability-based panel. The survey was run in partnership with Edward Jones - a brokerage that employs roughly 19,000 financial advisors, and whose interests are not entirely disinterested in the result.

Meanwhile, about 80% of adults have at least some confidence in traditional financial advisers. Only about one-third of those who sought advice actually consulted one. Far more - 73% - relied on their own online research.

Most adults sought guidance from at least one source over the past year. Beyond internet searches, advisers and AI, 35% turned to a parent, sibling or other relative; 26% consulted news or social media; about one in five went to friends, authors, speakers or influencers; and smaller shares used employers, retirement-plan providers, robo-advisers or teachers.

The generational split

Roughly a quarter of Gen Z and millennial respondents who sought advice used AI, against 16% of Gen Xers and 7% of baby boomers.

The professional-adviser numbers run precisely the other way: 14% of Gen Z, 21% of millennials, 34% of Gen X, and 55% of baby boomers.

Cost is the obvious explanation. Online research, family input and AI tools are free or close to it. Hiring an adviser is not.

What the experts say

Taha Choukhmane, an associate professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management, told the Associated Press he recommends treating AI as a starting point rather than a final authority. "I would encourage people to use AI to explain and define," he said - for example, to clarify what the stock market is, or the difference between a mutual fund and an index fund. He also suggests asking AI to supply references so users can verify what they are told.

Certified financial planner Bobbi Rebell of Financial Wellness Strategies pointed to a legal distinction that has no technical equivalent. Professional advisers often carry fiduciary responsibility - a legal obligation to act in the client's best interest.

"There's no AI that is a fiduciary," she told AP. "It doesn't really know your life; it's not asking you all the questions."

Whatever the source, the decisions remain the individual's responsibility - and so do the losses.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 06:55

English Village Will Have Six Migrant Men To Every Woman

English Village Will Have Six Migrant Men To Every Woman

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A quiet North Yorkshire village of roughly 600 people is set to be flooded with around 1,200 single adult male asylum seekers at the nearby disused RAF Linton-on-Ouse base. Local women would be outnumbered six to one.

Labour MP Rachael Maskell has raised the alarm over the plan, which forms part of the government's wider push to move roughly 3,750 people into three former military sites near villages as it tries to empty asylum hotels.

The base sits beside a primary school and nursery, has only four buses a day into York, and already faces severe shortages of water, sewage capacity and electricity. Maskell has written to border security and asylum minister Anna Turley and is due to meet Home Office officials this month.

"It's just the wrong site," Maskell said. "The last government realised that, once they got into the detail. All we're saying to this Government is that it's really important that they recognise that too, because the site is in a worse state now than it was when the Government last looked at this."

Similar plans for Linton-on-Ouse were abandoned in 2022 after fierce local opposition. Now they are back under active consideration. Local Tory councillor Malcolm Taylor captured the mood of residents who moved there for a quiet life: "They've moved there for the peace, tranquillity and quality of life. This hand grenade has been thrown in."

Professor Olga Matthias of the Linton Action Group called the village "categorically the wrong place for so many reasons."

This is not an isolated case. It follows the same pattern seen in the tiny Oxfordshire village of Piddington, population around 350-400, which faces plans for 1,250 single adult male asylum seekers at a former Ministry of Defence depot right next to a children's playing field.

Residents held a symbolic independence referendum in which 96 percent voted to leave the United Kingdom in protest. Children wrote letters pleading with the Prime Minister not to destroy the only home they have ever known. Parish council chairman Tim McNally has repeatedly warned that the scale is neither fair, safe nor responsible.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has responded by doubling down. He insists that "all parts of the country need to play their part" and that middle-class and leafy areas can no longer be shielded while poorer communities carry the load.

Borders minister Anna Turley has defended the approach as creating a "more fair and equitable system," even while acknowledging that concentrating arrivals in deprived areas previously fuelled "civil unrest."

The same government that lectures about fairness is also quietly imposing itself on other quiet rural communities. In the tiny Welsh seaside village of Gronant, population around 1,600, residents discovered that their former village hall - converted into 15 new-build homes they expected to go to local families or the open market - had been handed over to asylum seekers.

Thirteen of the fifteen units were taken by Home Office contractor Clearsprings. Blacked-out minibuses arrived without warning. Locals described it as pure betrayal. One resident, Kerrie Cox, said nobody was told about the arrivals. Another called it an "absolute betrayal."

These placements keep following the same template. Single adult men, overwhelmingly of fighting age, are being directed into the most culturally alien, high-trust, low-density English and Welsh villages imaginable - places defined by quiet streets, children's parks, limited public transport, and a long-standing sense of safety.

The contrast could scarcely be sharper. It repeatedly seems like an intentional choice designed to generate the maximum possible friction and cultural upheaval. They could not possibly find locations more foreign to the backgrounds of many of these arrivals.

The government claims the military sites will keep people "contained." In practice, residents are free to come and go. Infrastructure is inadequate. Policing is already stretched thin in these rural areas. Women and girls who once walked freely after dark now face the prospect of living in communities where adult men from very different cultural norms suddenly outnumber them by orders of magnitude.

This is the logical endpoint of a policy that refuses to stop the boats while insisting every corner of the country must absorb the consequences. Closing hotels and shifting people into former barracks or new-build village homes does not reduce the pull factor. It upgrades the destination.

The result is the steady erosion of the very places that once defined the character of rural Britain - one quiet village at a time.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 06:30

Is AI Good For The US Labor Market And Bad For Europe's?

Is AI Good For The US Labor Market And Bad For Europe's?

France's unemployment rate has been climbing steadily over the past eighteen months to the highest level in five years, with unemployment increasing across all age groups.

The US, by contrast, has stayed essentially flat and near multi-decade lows over the past few years.

While there are multiple factors driving both country's economic progress (or lack of it), Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, recently noted that Europe and the US face the same AI displacement.

But, only the US gets what offsets it:

  • the startup formation,

  • the CapEx, and

  • the hiring that comes from building the technology rather than only absorbing it.

The widening unemployment gap between France and the US is starting to look like the price of being on the wrong side of that asymmetry.

Underestimating AI Disruption?

Slok also points out that consensus earnings expectations still imply remarkably little disruption from AI.

Of more than 200 publicly traded software and white-collar services companies we track, only 10 are currently expected to experience both revenue and EBITDA declines over the next two years.

That suggests markets may be pricing in the possibility of AI disruption without yet fully incorporating its potential impact on earnings and margins.

Apollo sees that AI pressure as manifesting through three channels:

  1. direct replacement, where AI performs the same task at a lower cost;

  2. labor displacement, where AI reduces the number of employees, contractors or users supporting a business model; and

  3. execution risk, where AI-native competitors innovate faster and take market share.

As adoption accelerates, these are the channels we are watching for signs that AI disruption is beginning to show up in fundamentals.

Read more in Apollo's 2026 Midyear Credit Outlook.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 05:45

The Delusional Premises Of Woke Greens

The Delusional Premises Of Woke Greens

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

While the burgeoning democratic socialist movement is getting a lot of attention in advance of the 2026 midterm elections, a parallel dimension of wokeism quietly continues to advance. For now, the Trump administration has attenuated its most extreme threats, but its institutional support is unwavering, and its slow progress is unrelenting. The woke greens are pursuing their own long march.

The agenda of the woke greens is synergistic with democratic socialism. Its currency is fear and resentment. The Earth is dying; colonialist capitalism is to blame. Extraordinary measures are called for. Restrict growth, redistribute wealth. Sound familiar? Environmentalist extremism and socialism are two peas in a pod. But both are built on lies. Nothing has delivered more wealth and freedom to more people than authentic capitalism. Not crony, casino, or monopoly capitalism, but capitalism that rewards hard work, protects private property, and preserves the incentives that harness human nature and nurture human creativity.

In contrast to capitalism, socialism is a nightmare that turns out the lights in nation after nation. The historical evidence is overwhelming. Strive to improve the mechanics of capitalism, and reject socialist demagoguery.

But there’s a catch. The planet is burning up. Ecosystems are in collapse. Therefore, we have no choice; we must redistribute wealth so everyone can consume less. Without radical measures, our civilization is unsustainable. This argument sounds compelling. But it is also built on lies that must be challenged.

Here are some of the flawed, false premises for the woke greens.

We face a climate emergency.

To anyone who has studied both sides of the debate, this is a manipulative shibboleth. From a more balanced perspective, even if there is an emergency, the opportunistic profiteering of the climate industry is obvious, and “climate” is revealed all too often as just a marketing ploy to garner mandates and subsidies for projects that would otherwise never survive an honest cost-benefit analysis.

There are nearly infinite scientifically valid reasons that explain why the planet is not experiencing an actual climate crisis, and, thanks to the failure of the climate industry to completely silence the skeptics, it’s become easier than ever to study these reasons. A good place to start is with the 2021 book “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters” by Steven E. Koonin. Another continuously updated source of climate realism comes from the CO2 Coalition, a network of scientists committed to debunking the alarmist narrative. There’s much more. Read the classic “Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming,” by economist Bjorn Lomborg, or the more recent “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All” by Michael Shellenberger.

The inconvenient truth for woke greens is that the climate alarm narrative, which is the foundation of their entire subsequent agenda, is not true. But the truth has to contend with a multitrillion-dollar industry that relies on the useful fear and resentment that a “climate emergency” imparts to millions of people. It is used to silence debate over the efficacy of every one of the following destructive delusions. In no particular order, here are some of them.

Floating offshore wind provides sustainable electricity.

This is a preposterous lie. Floating offshore wind is the most expensive source of electricity on Earth. It has never been deployed successfully at scale. It is a resource hog, it wreaks environmental havoc, and installations are short-lived in the maritime environment. The heavily subsidized corporations that buy politicians and profit from this monstrous scam would not exist in a competitive market.

Biofuel is a carbon-neutral, sustainable fuel.

Another preposterous lie. There are nearly 450,000 square miles of biofuel plantations worldwide, and altogether they only supply five percent of total demand for liquid transportation fuel. These are pesticide-, herbicide-, and fertilizer-drenched monocultures that have replaced rainforests throughout the tropics. If you replaced all the arable farmland on Earth with these abominations, that would still only provide 60 percent of global demand for transportation fuel, which in turn represents only 30 percent of total demand for energy in the world. Is this sustainable?

Dams must be demolished.

While there is controversy over some dams—Turkey has new dams that can deny water to Iraq and Syria, and Ethiopia has built one that can cut off water to Egypt—in general, we need dams for flood control, navigation, irrigation, and hydroelectric power. There are ways to mitigate the impact of dams on migrating fish, and there are many instances of how dams can help the environments they impact. But no matter. According to the woke greens, they must all be demolished.

The only way to manage forests is to leave them completely alone.

This is nonsense. Forests that are managed responsibly with sustainable logging, mechanical thinning, controlled burns, and livestock grazing are far healthier. In prehistory, fires naturally and routinely thinned forests, which maintained their health by preventing an unhealthy density of trees and shrubs. Now that we put out forest fires, we must compensate by managing the resulting growth. All over the United States we are seeing superfires that are not the result of climate change but a consequence of environmentalists chasing out the loggers while not permitting any other method of thinning.

We must reintroduce wild animals wherever they once roamed.

A related premise of the woke greens is that we must not only save endangered species but also reintroduce them throughout their ancient range. Now we have mountain lions roaming the Los Angeles suburbs and wolf packs spreading slowly throughout the western United States, and there’s even talk of bringing the grizzly bear back to California. Because, to quote a woke green, “It’s their land.” No. It isn’t. It’s appropriate to take reasonable steps to preserve wildlife and wilderness areas, but allowing dangerous predator species that already have stable populations to expand their range is explicitly anti-human. We have to responsibly manage wildlife populations just as we have to responsibly manage forests. That means we have to set and enforce limits on their range.

People should live in densely populated cities.

The idea here is that someone living in a one-bedroom apartment in a high-rise in a neighborhood with 30,000 people per square mile is more “sustainable” than people living in detached homes with their own yards. The inhumanity of this is stunning, but it’s also just false. Urbanized areas on Earth (that’s cities and towns) today only total around 200,000 square miles, and yet 81 percent of the world population lives in them. We have 41 million square miles of habitable land on Earth. If 10 billion people lived in homes on quarter-acre lots, four per household, with an equal amount of land set aside for roads, parks, schools, and commercial and industrial areas, it would use up less than 2 million square miles of that land, less than five percent of habitable land.

There are too many people for the planet’s resources to sustain.

This is absolutely false. The crisis we face in the world is too few people. Birthrates are collapsing everywhere on the planet, with the exception of significant parts of the Islamic world and sub-Saharan Africa—which explains why migrants from those nations are swarming into any developed nations that will admit them. The challenge for humanity is to convince people who have attained the liberty and prosperity to live lives beyond bare subsistence to still decide to have children. The human population is projected, at most, to peak at 10 billion by around 2050. After that, unless dramatic cultural trends are reversed, it will decline precipitously.

Rationing energy, water, land, and other resources is necessary to save the planet.

The irony here is that the “renewables” touted by the woke greens as the sustainable solution to environmental challenges are the biggest resource hogs of all. But all historical evidence demonstrates that as long as people have freedom to innovate, for every dwindling resource, something new replaces it. Humanity has never before stood at the threshold of as many new technological breakthroughs as we have right now. The only thing that stops us from achieving per capita abundance at higher levels than ever is authoritarian corruption, and among the biggest enablers of that are the woke greens.

These false premises only scratch the surface of how woke greens and their favored mantra, the “climate emergency,” are transforming global politics, especially in Western nations, and not for the better. Accompanying the danger the continued dominance of these false premises poses to our freedom and prosperity is great irony. For those who have concluded these premises are false, there is less willingness to recognize new so-called green technologies that nonetheless make economic sense and merit further development. And for those who are fixated on the false premise of a climate emergency, there is less ability to recognize and address genuine threats to the environment, of which there are many.

Climate alarmism has taken on a momentum detached from reality. For tens of thousands of bureaucrats and politicians in the U.S., accepting it is simply the path of least resistance. But just as all elements of radical woke ideology must be challenged and overcome, so too must the woke green movement.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 05:00

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