Continuing Jobless Claims Tumble To 2-Year Lows

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 203k to 219k last week (higher than the expected 210k), but still hovering within the low-low range of the last four years...

Source: Bloomberg

New Jersey and Oregon saw the largest WoW rise in initial claims while Texas and New York saw the biggest decline...

But, while initial claims rose, continuing jobless claims tumbled to the lowest level since May 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

Soft survey data continues to signal a stressed labor market, while hard claims data says - all clear...

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is the 'no hire, no fire' economy remains firmly in place with policy-makers holding their breath for March's inflation data to make a decision.

Expectations for The Fed's moves in 2026 currently price in 25% odds of a single 25bps rate-cut this year.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 09:03

Savings Rate Slides As Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Slowed In February (Ahead Of War)

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) - rose 0.4% MoM in February (pre-war), in line with expectations, with YoY rising 3.0% (as expected - lowest since Dec), down from January's +3.1%...

Source: Bloomberg

The YoY Core decline is coming off January's highest level since March 2024, with Services cost inflation slowing notably...

The headline PCE also rose 0.4% MoM (as expected - the biggest MoM rise since Feb 2025), up 2.8% YoY (also as expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, we saw a notable jump in non-durable goods prices...

Source: Bloomberg

The much-watched SuperCore PCE (Services Ex-Shelter rose 0.2% MoM with the YoY rise tumbling to +3.2% - in line with its lowest level since March 2021...

Under the hood, Recreation Services and Healthcare saw the largest deceleration MoM...

For those worried about the impact of crude oil's recent surge (since the start of the Iran war), it appears - somehow - that PCE's Energy component has already front-run some of the move but there's a lot more pain to come for March...

Source: Bloomberg

Higher prices were met with lower incomes (-0.1% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp) and higher spending (+90.5% MoM vs +0.6% MoM exp)...

Source: Bloomberg

Income growth is slowing significantly while spending is accelerating...

Source: Bloomberg

Adjusted for inflation, real spending rose 2.5% YoY - the highest since Oct 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

After jumping from 3.9% to 4.5% in January, Americans' savings rate dropped back to 4.0% in Feb (after another huge revision in late 2025), basically at the weakest level since Nov 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

So spending solid as incomes fell and prices are rising... but this is all pre-war, so a large pinch of salt is required.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 08:45

"Shocking Levels Of Distress": CMBS Delinquencies Unexpectedly Soar To COVID Highs

With market focused on private credit as the next credit market crisis vortex, many have forgotten that CMBS, the asset class that was smashed in the aftermath of covid as hundreds of office buildings were suddenly left vacant, has been teetering on the edge for years. For some, it proved to be a lucrative bet as the "next big short" after various office-heavy CMBX tranches collapsed in 2020 and 2021. But due to the slow-burning nature of commercial real-estate deterioration, where data center REITs provided a solid offset to weakness elsewhere, credit markets eventually moved on to the next worst thing. 

It may be time to reassess: according to the latest TREPP CMBS monthly report, March saw a surge in the delinquency rate, which jumped by 41bps to 7.55%, the highest in years, led by a surge in the lodging rate, a category which until now was not a source of concern. 

TREPP states that the five largest newly delinquent loans accounted for just over $2 billion of the almost $5.1 billion in newly delinquent loans, including a West Coast hotel portfolio, a Midwest office loan, a Northeast retail center loan, a national hotel portfolio, and a Pacific Northwest office portfolio, which pushed the rate higher.

In addition, roughly 40% of the newly delinquent loans this month were considered performing matured balloon last month. Continuing the sideways delinquency trend as loans mature, go delinquent, cure, and become delinquent again.

Among all newly delinquent loans, non-performing matured balloon was the most common delinquency classification, consistent with prior months.

At the property-type level, four of the five major property type rates increased while one edged down slightly. Lodging posted the largest increase, jumping 137 basis points to 7.31%, the first time it has been above 7% since its recent April 2025 peak of 7.85%. Office rose 51 basis points to 11.71%, maintaining the elevated range established over the past year, but remaining below January 2026’s recent high of 12.34%. Retail increased 32 basis points to 6.62%, rising from February’s recent low of 6.30% but remaining below the higher readings observed in 2024 and early 2025, when that rate averaged 6.71%. Multifamily was also especially week, as the delinquency rate rose 30 basis points to 7.15%, pushing slightly above its prior high-water mark of 7.12% in October 2025, and well past its marks from one year ago of 5.44% and 1.84% two years ago. Industrial - a stable category which includes warehouse and data center REITs - dipped slightly to 0.65% from 0.67%, continuing to sit near the bottom of the major property-type delinquency spectrum.

And in an ominous twist, if loans past their maturity date but current on interest (classified as performing matured balloon) were included, the delinquency rate would register 9.07%, up 32 basis points from February. This figure sits 152 basis points above the headline rate of 7.55% and continues to highlight the role of maturities in overall CMBS performance. The seriously delinquent rate (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or non‑performing balloons) also increased, rising to 7.29% (from 6.89%). The percentage of loan balance in the 30-day delinquent bucket is 0.26%, essentially flat versus February (0.25%).

In a well-timed report, the WSJ yesterday published a reminder that much of the battered US office market continues to drag along the bottom, and continues to hold a fire sale, featuring some buildings marked down by more than 90%. 

Some striking examples:

• In Chicago, real-estate developer Marc Calabria bought a 485,000-square-foot office building for $4 million. The building sold for $68.1 million a decade ago. 
• Developer Asher Luzzatto paid a mere $5.3 million for the Denver Energy Center, after a foreclosure process. The two-building complex sold for $176 million in 2013. 
• Even the federal government’s landlord is getting in on the act. The General Services Administration last month sold a 940,000-square-foot building to a residential converter for $24 million, a tiny fraction of its value a few years ago.

Investors purchased 204 distressed office buildings nationwide last year, up from 133 sales in 2024, according to data firm MSCI. Sales of these properties, which were auctioned out of bankruptcies or sold through foreclosures and lender seizure, came to $5.2 billion. In the first two months of this year, sales volume of distressed offices was $808 million, up 24.5% from the same period last year, MSCI said. 

Denver Energy Center

The bottom line is this: we may be approaching the next commercial real estate crisis because much of the reserves that kept the sector semi-solvent for years, have run out. As the WSJ puts it, "landlords and their lenders held on to their office towers for years, hoping for a turnaround after Covid. Now, they are accepting enormous losses. Owners and creditors are capitulating to the reality that more employees are splitting their work time between home and office. They are also resigned to stubbornly higher interest rates, which lower property values and make it harder for buyers to borrow."

“People who don’t know real estate would be shocked at the level of distress,” Luzzatto said.

Of course, not every office building goes for a few pennies on the dollar. These are mostly B-grade, or poorer-quality buildings, often in undesirable locations. And owners of high-end office towers in the best locations of New York City and the hottest parts of San Francisco are raising rents and selling buildings profitably (although pockets of weakness are appearing there too, now that AI is making a growing number of tech workers obsolete).

But most office sales reflect the sector’s steep decline. Even higher-quality properties on average have dropped about 35% in value from their peak, according to analytics firm Green Street.

Buyers, meanwhile, are picking up office towers in major U.S. cities for roughly the price of a three-bedroom condo unit in Manhattan. These distressed sales are paving the way for new owners to pursue redevelopment ideas that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

Calabria in Chicago plans to convert the office building into an urban farm and education center. He is working with Farmzero, which will use grow lights and hydroponic farming techniques to produce millions of pounds a year of berries, tomatoes, lettuce, herbs and other vegetables. 

“The buy-in at this distressed price allows us the opportunity to afford change,” Calabria said. 

Rock-bottom prices are also accelerating the move to residential conversion. Developers who bought at steep discounts can now justify costly structural changes - such as carving out atriums or reconfiguring floor layouts - that would have been financially unworkable at higher valuations.

At the start of the year, more than 90,000 apartments nationwide were in the process of conversion nationwide, up 28% from a year earlier, according to data firm RentCafe. New York City’s obsolete buildings are leading the way, but tax breaks and other government incentives are helping spark similar projects in Chicago and Washington, D.C. 

This reckoning follows years when office owners and their lenders avoided confronting the sector’s problems. Owners would inject more equity, while lenders extended loans in hopes of a rebound. 

Now, with many concluding that values aren’t coming back, lenders are increasingly demanding repayment or selling the properties, a sign that the office market’s long slide that intensified during the pandemic is nearing a bottom. 

“We’re six years from the shock of Covid,” said Jim Costello, an MSCI executive director. “But that’s how long it takes someone to capitulate and give up such a highly valued asset.”

The good news is that the threat of systemic risk remains low for now: many banks and other lenders are better positioned to take losses after spending the past few years shoring up their balance sheets and building reserves against troubled loans.  Special servicers overseeing distressed office buildings financed through commercial mortgage-backed securities are also selling. The Chicago building being converted into an urban farm was sold by special servicer CW Asset Management, which said the low price was justified because the empty building’s taxes, utility bills and other costs were so high.

It isn’t just weak demand from remote work forcing down values. Owners must contend with the high cost of leasing up empty space -through hefty brokerage commissions and tenant incentives - and uncertainty about how AI could reshape office usage.

Sharp discounts are showing up in both downtown and suburban markets. For example, Newmark Group brokered the sale of five suburban Texas office buildings over the past two years at prices more than 50% lower than prepandemic values. Buyers demolished them to make way for higher-demand uses like industrial space. 

Some of the big buyers of distressed office assets include Cross Ocean Partners, a credit-focused investment firm known for moving from one pocket of distress to another. It recently raised the first $300 million of a $750 million fund to buy distressed office assets—both debt and equity—in such markets as Minneapolis, Austin, Texas, and the Boston area.

The strategy centers on acquiring assets at steep discounts and underwriting the cash flow from existing tenants. Even if office demand remains weak, those in-place rents can generate a profit.

While institutional investors have largely pulled back from distress to focus on the strongest buildings in the most resilient markets, high-net-worth individuals are stepping in. 

Hossein Fateh recently bought a 940,000-square-foot GSA building in Washington, D.C. A data-center investor, he made a fortune when Digital Realty paid $7.6 billion for DuPont Fabros Technology, which he co-founded.

Fateh is planning a residential conversion, adding a swimming pool or atriums in the middle of the floors to create windows. Such architectural hacks will help push the conversion cost into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

If the price wasn’t so low, “this deal wouldn’t work,” he said. 

And with AI set to unleash the next big wave of office vacancy, coupled with banks throwing in the towel on cash-burning properties, many more such deals are emerging on the horizon.  

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Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 08:40

Stock Futures Slide As Doubts Over Ceasefire Send Oil Higher

Stocks resumed their drop and oil erased about a third of its Wednesday drop as traders watched the fragile US-Iran ceasefire shatter by the hour, with both sides accusing the other of breaches while the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed and Israel intensified strikes on Lebanon. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures fell 0.4% after Bloomberg strategists said a best-case scenario has already been priced in;  Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% with Mag7 stocks mostly lower. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 0.7%. Emerging-market stocks slid almost 1%. The dollar ticked higher even as 10Y US YST yields dropped about 1bp; equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. Brent crude jumped back to $98 a barrel on signs the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. US economic data calendar includes February personal income/spending (with PCE price index), weekly jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q GDP (8:30am) and February wholesale trade sales and inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank until April 14.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon +0.8%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -0.7%, Meta Platforms +1%, Microsoft -0.1%, -0.3%)

• Applied Digital (APLD) falls 1% after the data center operator’s third-quarter gross margins missed the average analyst estimate.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) rises 6% after the cloud-computing provider reported an expanded long-term agreement with Meta to provide AI cloud capacity through December 2032 for ~$21 billion.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 2% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight, citing demand for optical products.
• Instacart (CART) climbs 2% as Raymond James upgrades to outperform, calling the grocery segment an under-penetrated e-commerce market.
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL) falls 16% after the packaged-food firm forecast year net sales will be down as much as 10%.
• STAAR Surgical (STAA) rises 23% after the health-care supplies firm said it expects net sales for the first quarter to exceed $90 million, up from $42.6 million in the year ago period. The estimate surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) gains 1.6% after Stifel upgraded the stock to buy, citing “multiple tailwinds” that should support the semiconductor firm’s outlook.
• Whitestone REIT (WSR) shares rise 11% after the retail-focused real estate investment trust company entered into a definitive merger agreement with Ares Real Estate funds to be acquired for $19 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at about $1.7 billion.

In AI, Anthropic employees sold some equity to investors, wrapping up a secondary share sale that started earlier this year. Meta shares are up in premarket trading, with analysts generally positive on the AI model it showed on Wednesday. PIMCO is said to be looking to sell a portion of the $14 billion of debt financing it’s providing for a massive Oracle data center in Michigan. In other corporate news, the WSJ reported that Disney is preparing to make sizable layoffs in one of the first significant moves under its new CEO. Seven & i Holdings will delay a public listing of its US convenience-store business planned for later this year. 

Markets have given up some of the big moves seen Wednesday when optimism around the deal for a two-week pause in fighting spurred a relief rally. Continued fighting in the Middle East, punctuated by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, threatened to derail the fragile ceasefire deal. Iran and the US-Israeli side appeared to disagree over whether the ceasefire covers Lebanon. Yet despite the escalating rhetoric, the ceasefire was largely holding on Thursday, with a decline in attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

“There’s a fair amount of skepticism in the market about the ceasefire and the upcoming negotiations,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital. “The big question is what state the global economy will be in after the crisis.”

Overnight, Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran; the first round of direct negotiations is scheduled for Saturday morning in Islamabad. Meanwhile, Goldman predicted that Brent is set to average more than $100 a barrel right through 2026 if the strait remains closed for another month. 

Much of Wednesday’s move was driven by short-covering and a return to normal positioning: According to Goldman’s trading desk, hedge funds rushed to close out bets against US stocks at a pace not seen since March 2020. The ceasefire, along with upcoming earnings driving up the potential for idiosyncratic moves across equities, may mean “downward pressure on implied correlations,” according to Citi option strategists.

Even if weekend talks lead to a more permanent peace, the effects of the war will rumble on. Earnings expectations will need to be tempered because of the inflationary fallout from the war, according to BlackRock’s Helen Jewell. And in central banks, a former executive director at the Bank of Japan said the BOJ is likely to increase its benchmark rate this month to avoid falling behind on controlling inflation. Fed policymakers will get the latest reading of their preferred inflation indicator, core PCE, later, ahead of CPI data on Friday. The latter, covering March, is likely to be more interesting as it will begin to reflect the Middle East conflict.

In politics, the Justice Department’s top antitrust litigator and three senior trial attorneys are leaving the agency, according to people familiar. The US is said to consider lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s battered economy.

Turning to the start of earnings season next week, expectations will need to be tempered due to the inflationary fallout from the war, BlackRock Inc.’s Helen Jewell said.  “If you look at earnings forecasts at the moment for the year, they’re still well into double digits — 15, 16, 17, 18%,” said Jewell, who is international chief investment officer for fundamental equities at the world’s largest asset manager. “There’s a lot of headroom for the earnings to come down a little bit.” 

On Thursday, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation will offer a snapshot of pre-war price pressures. Economists see the so-called core personal consumption expenditures — PCE — price index, which excludes food and energy, having risen by 0.4% for a third month in February, suggesting progress toward tamer inflation was stalling even before the conflict.

Europe's stocks followed their Asian counterparts lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.7% after its best day since March 2022 on Wednesday. US equity futures also drop. Oil stocks advanced along with Brent crude. Many of yesterday’s laggards in the oil sector are today’s biggest gainers, including Var Energi, Equinor, BP and TotalEnergies. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• ITM Power shares climb as much as 17%, the most in 10 months, after the UK government pledged to invest around £87 million in the clean energy company to drive a build out of its hydrogen technology manufacturing facility
• Rexel shares climb as much as 4.1% after analysts at Jefferies raise the French electrical supplies firm to buy from hold, saying it is well positioned to outpace its guidance thanks to higher prices and growth drivers
• Technip Energies shares rise as much as 4.1% to the highest level since September after the engineering firm was awarded a contract to improve the Long Son Petrochemicals complex in Vietnam
• Vallourec rises as much as 5.2% after announcing a five-year supply agreement with Fervo Energy worth up to $800 million, which CIC Markets says “demonstrates the effectiveness” of the firm’s New Energies segment strategy
• AG Barr rises as much as 4.7% after Bank of America initiates coverage of the UK soft drinks manufacturer with a buy rating and a street-high 850p price target. BofA cites growth potential for IRN-BRU
• DCC shares rise as much as 4.1% after analysts at BNP Paribas raise their rating to outperform from neutral on the energy seller’s current valuation and the positive impact of energy prices
• Melia Hotels shares rise as much as 3.9%, to the highest level since Sept. 2018, as Kepler Cheuvreux raises its recommendation on the Spanish hotel operator to hold from reduce
• Abivax shares rise as much as 3.8% after Oddo BHF lifted its price target on the French biotech company, saying Crohn’s disease could represent a bigger commercial opportunity than ulcerative colitis
• Alstom falls 7.2%, the most in ten months, after the French trainmaker flags currency headwinds in an earnings preview. JPMorgan (overweight) lowers estimates on FX headwinds
• Man Group shares trade as much as 7.7% below their last closing price, only partly due to trading without rights to the next dividend. Deutsche Bank analysts cut their earnings estimates and price target ahead of 1Q results
• Netcompany shares fall as much as 6.5%, the most in two months, after ABG Sundal Collier cut its recommendation on the Danish IT consultancy to hold from buy, seeing a “less compelling” risk/reward after a strong run for the shares
• Grieg Seafood falls as much as 7.9%, the most since last May, after the Norwegian seafood and salmon company’s preliminary first-quarter earnings disappointed, leading DNB Carnegie to cut 2026 EPS estimates by 12%

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks retreated as oil prices rose again and sporadic fighting in the Middle East cast doubts over the implementation of the two-week US-Iran ceasefire deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1%, with South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest drags. Most national benchmarks in the region traded lower, with the Kospi being the biggest loser followed by India’s Nifty 50. Asia’s stock benchmark jumped 5% in the previous session, the most in about a year, as global risk assets rallied on optimism over the ceasefire deal. It is up more than 8% so far in 2026.

“Headline risk remains elevated,” according to Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com. “Markets aren’t necessarily out of the woods yet. There are several variables that could upend market sentiment.”

In rates, treasury yields are slightly lower, down 1bp to 4.29% and slightly richer across the curve after plying small ranges during Asia session and London morning; equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. US yields are as much as 1.5bp lower led by intermediate sectors, steepening 5s30s curve by around 1bp. 10-year is down about 1bp near 4.28% with European counterparts 3bp-6bp higher on the day. European yields are broadly higher with oil prices as Strait of Hormuz traffic remains blocked: UK and German 10-year yields rise 7 bps and 4 bps respectively. US session includes PCE price gauges for February, several other US economic indicators and 30-year bond auction. Treasury’s $22 billion 30-year bond reopening has WI yield near 4.88%, about 1bp higher than result of last month’s auction, which stopped through by 0.7bp; Wednesday’s 10-year reopening tailed by 0.2bp after rallying into the bid deadline.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inches higher. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. Gold edges up while Bitcoin is flat.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up more than 5% near session highs, erasing about a third of Wednesday’s 16.4% drop; Brent crude futures rise 4% to above $98 after a more than 13% plunge to under $95 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. Two fully laden Chinese oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were approaching the Strait, potentially putting them on track to become the first such vessels to cross since the ceasefire was announced.  European natural gas futures climb 2%.

US economic data calendar includes February personal income/spending (with PCE price index), weekly jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q GDP (8:30am) and February wholesale trade sales and inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank until April 14.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%, Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%, Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%, DAX -1.2%, CAC 40 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.29%
• VIX +0.4 points at 21.39
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1202.1, euro +0.1% at $1.1678
• WTI crude +3.1% at $97.38/barrel

Top Overnight News

• JD Vance will head the U.S. negotiating team for the peace talks with Iran on Saturday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday. Axios
• Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel's creation of "buffer zones" in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war. RTRS
• Vance said Wednesday Israel has proposed to restrain itself when it comes to strikes in Lebanon as long as the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are taking place. Axios
• The White House is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that President Trump thinks were unhelpful to the U.S. and Israel during the Iran war, according to administration officials. The proposal would involve moving U.S. troops out of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and stationing them in countries that were more supportive. WSJ
• EU will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US and Iran agreeing a two-week ceasefire, the bloc’s top economic official has warned. FT
• BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan’s finance conditions remain accommodative, with the level of real rates clearly below zero. BBG
• The US is said to be considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s economy. BBG
• Wealthy investors attempted to pull more than $20bn from private credit funds in the first quarter, underscoring the growing strain on the asset class. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. The funds tracked by the FT, which collectively manage investment portfolios worth about $300bn, have honored just over half of the redemption requests they received. Many investors have been forced to wait until a redemption window opens up later this quarter to exit. FT
• The Trump administration will likely extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil this week, former Treasury and State Department officials said — teeing up a similar move on Iranian oil. Semafor
• World Bank forecasts global growth for 2027 at 2.4%, while it said investment remains subdued as firms await clearer signals on the external environment and domestic policy, which it called a binding constraint on growth.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were lower in a mild pullback from yesterday's ceasefire-fuelled extremes and as the widespread euphoria gradually waned amid the wide gaps between each side's peace proposals. Furthermore, several strikes had continued in the 24 hours after the  announcement, and the inclusion of Lebanon is seen as a key point of contention, while shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, although a senior Iranian official stated that Iran could open Hormuz on Thursday or Friday ahead of their planned talks. ASX 200 traded little changed amid a lack of data or drivers and with resilience in energy, defensives and financials offsetting the firm losses in the tech sector. Nikkei 225 pulled back after the prior day's stellar performance, with the index returning to beneath the 56,000 level amid very few fresh catalysts and the absence of tier-1 data to sustain the previous momentum. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the uninspired mood amid concerns regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire, and with weakness in Chinese tech and property stocks, while there were prior reports that the US FCC will vote on a measure that would ban Chinese labs from testing US electronics.

Top Asian News

• South Korea's Finance Minister comments that financial and FX market volatility has eased a bit.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) have pulled back from Wednesday's ceasefire-related surge after cracks appeared in the agreement. US President Trump announced that the military will remain in and around Iran until a real agreement is fully complied with. Furthermore, the IRGC announced a new Hormuz corridor, effectively raising risks of disruption and bottlenecks. The IBEX 35 outperforms, with the index trading near flat. On the other hand, the DAX 40 is the underperformer. European sectors echo the above bias, with the majority in the red. Energy and Chemicals are amongst the sectors in the green, highlighting its defensive characteristics, while Consumer Products and Services and Technology sit at the bottom of the pile.

Top European News

• Italian PM Meloni said ruling out government reshuffle, not planning to resign; if the middle east crisis were to flare up again, Europe should consider temporary suspension of the stability and growth pact.
• EU's Dombrovskis said the bloc will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US-Iran ceasefire, while European Commission is preparing to cut growth forecasts, according to FT.

FX

• FX Markets are paring some of Wednesday's optimism with crude gaining and general risk-off elsewhere as markets weigh Iran's claims of ceasefire breaches and subsequent concerns over Hormuz following reports from state media.
• DXY cautiously chugged higher throughout the European morning, supported by the key 99.00 mark. Overnight, FOMC Minutes were viewed as hawkish, with it stating many members said persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated long enough to justify rate rises. Taking a look at rate expectations, markets moved to price just 7bps of easing by year-end compared to 15bps pre-minutes.
• Kiwi continues to perform well, amid hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman, she said inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term, and they will ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up. This marks the second day of gains against the greenback, with NZD the sole currency that outperforms a mildly stronger USD. In terms of market pricing, 75bps of easing is expected by year-end, an increase of 15bps since last week.
• JPY is the worst performer in the G10, as energy prices weigh on the net importer nation. The pair marked a session low of 158.45 and sits on a 159 handle at the time of writing. Elsewhere, EUR/GBP trades a touch above the 0.87 mark. In a note this morning, ING suggests rate differentials will help the cross with EUR; rate expectations are likely to prove sticky and BoE dovish pricing potentially coming "through more smoothly" should energy prices continue to decline.

Central Banks

• RBNZ Governor Bremen said more risk on inflation to the upside and inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term. said:. Previous rate cuts are still providing some stimulus to the economy, and a swift resolution to the conflict is expected to yield stronger growth this year. RBNZ to ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said short and medium-term interest rates are clearly negative, adds accommodative financial conditions are maintained, leading to moderate increase in capex.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are trading flat to lower, as benchmarks pull back from the extremes seen on Wednesday, and as traders begin to find holes within the current ceasefire agreement. This comes after Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable. Another interesting point is that Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks. (Full details on the Newsquawk headline feed). This, alongside continued strikes on both Lebanon and Iran, has led to a rebound in the energy complex, once again renewing inflationary concerns.
• USTs are currently flat, and mildly outperforming vs peers – currently trading within a 111-04+ to 111-10 range, and have entirely reversed the initial ceasefire-related optimism. Much of the action facilitated by the geopolitical factors mentioned above, but the complex is also weighed on by hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes and heading into a 30yr auction later today. On the data front, markets will await weekly claims, February’s PCE data (exp. +0.4% M/M vs prev. +0.3%) and core PCE (exp. +0.4% M/M vs prev. +0.4%); final Q4 GDP stats. From a yield perspective, the 2yr has rebounded back towards 3.785% (vs Wednesday’s trough at 3.713%).
• Bunds are in the red and down by around 50 ticks at this stage, and holding towards the bottom end of a 125.67 to 126.10 range. German paper did dip a tick below the high from 7th April, with market participants highlighting 125.53 as a potential area for intraday longs to be exited. Bunds are moving at the whim of energy prices this morning, but there have been some domestic updates. An interesting comment via Italy’s PM Meloni got some attention, after she suggested that the EU should consider a temporary suspension of budget deficit rules if the Iran war persists. No move in EGBs at the time, but traders will remain cognizant of any fiscal related concerns, should a suspension be enacted. From a data perspective, Industrial Production printed at -0.3% (exp. +0.9%), highlighting the turbulent recovery of Germany – even before the Iran war started.
• Gilts are underperforming vs peers, after leading the fixed complex on Wednesday. As above, moving at the whim of energy prices, with UK-specific newsflow light. UK 2yr has rebounded back towards 4.237% (vs trough of 4.044% on Wednesday). UK paper currently trades within an 89.10 to 89.61 range; further pressure could see a breach below the 89.00 mark, and then the high from 7th April at 88.88.
• UK sold GBP 4bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.30x (prev. 3.37x), average yield 4.507% (prev. 4.075%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Spain sold EUR 5.778bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.35% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.30% 2036 Bono & EUR 0.676bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L Bono.
• Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.58x (prev. 3.69x), average yield 1.826% (prev. 1.633%).
• Unicredit (UCG IM) to sell 6-year EUR-denominated noted, guidance seen +125bps to MS.
• Lloyds (LLOY LN) to sell 10-year GBP-denominated noted, guidance seen at +170bps to UK Treasuries.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is important to base JGB issuance plans on market demand, when asked about extending duration of government debt.

Commodities

• Optimism over the US–Iran ceasefire faded as both sides signalled breaches and diverging terms, with Trump warning of military escalation if compliance fails and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf saying multiple clauses of Tehran’s plan have already been violated. Lebanon has emerged as the key fault line—while the US and Israel insist it sits outside the agreement, Iran and its allies treat it as integral, raising the risk of collapse as Israeli strikes and Hezbollah activity continue. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz adds further fragility, as Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks (Full Analysis available on the Newsquawk headline feed).
• Crude rebounded after Wednesday’s biggest one-day drop since April 2020, with Brent Jun'26 back above USD 97/bbl (after Wednesday’s 13% slump), as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon raised concerns over the durability of the Middle East truce. WTI May'26 trades towards the top of a USD 96.25-98.38/bbl range and Brent Jun'26 towards the upper end of a USD 96.30-98.53/bbl parameter. Mizuho expects crude to remain near USD 90/bbl through Q2 before returning to pre-conflict levels, while CBA sees upside risks while the Strait remains largely closed and physical undersupply linked to the Iran war supports prices.
• Spot gold holds above USD 4,700/oz after rising 1.5% over the prior two sessions, as traders weighed hopes for a diplomatic resolution against sporadic fighting that threatened the ceasefire. However, some flagged a technical correction after the sharp rise in front-month Comex futures. The metal trades within a narrow USD 4,699-4,733/oz range at the time of writing, with the 100 DMA at USD 4,671.57/oz. Commerzbank said gold had been supported by lower oil prices, easing inflation risks and pulling down rate expectations and bond yields, though the outlook still depends on whether a lasting US-Iran settlement emerges.
• Copper futures pulled back overnight and remain weak in the European session as the heightened risk appetite from the fragile US-Iran ceasefire petered out, with 3M LME copper in a narrow USD 12,587.00- 12,678.70/oz.
• Brazil court suspends oil export tax for Shell (SHEL LN), Equinor (EQNR), TotalEnergies (TTE FP) and Repsol (REP SM).
• OECD has urged governments to unwind expensive fuel duty cuts, according to the FT.
• Japan considers releasing an additional 20 days of oil reserves, according to Kyodo.
• US mulls lifting Venezuela's central bank sanctions with the aim of increasing oil output, according to sources.
• Russia is offering sanctioned LNG to Asia via intermediaries at a 40% discount.
• Goldman Sachs said Brent would average above USD 100/bbl through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another month. Adds that the situation remains fluid after the start of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, and that risks to its oil price forecast are still skewed to the upside.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump posted "All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel....will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with".
• US President Trump posted "NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!".
• Trump admin is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that he believes were unhelpful to the US and Israel during the Iran war, WSJ reported citing admin officials. The proposal would involve moving US troops out of NATO member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and station them in countries that were more supportive of the US military campaign. The proposal would fall far short of President Trump’s recent threats to fully withdraw the US from the alliance, which by law he can’t do without Congress. Plans could also include closure of at least 1 US base in a European country, possible Spain or Germany.
• NATO Secretary-General Rutte pointed out to US President Trump that a large majority of European nations have been helpful.
• US officials say they do not rule out resuming fighting in Iran and that President Trump will not offer major concessions to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, adds Iran's insistence on controlling straight reformers could lead to a resumption of fighting.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the Speaker of Parliament will lead Iran’s delegation for the talks, and the exchange of messages continues via Pakistan, Al Jazeera reported.
• Iran Ambassador to Pakistan said the Iranian delegation is to arrive on Thursday night in Islamabad for "serious talks", based on the 10 points proposed by Iran.
• IRGC Navy announces alternative shipping routes to avoid possible sea mines, according to ISNA.
• IRGC claimed on Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.
• Iranian Parliament's Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ibrahim Azizi said '"Once again, you have proven that you do not know the meaning of a ceasefire" and "Only fire will discipline you...so wait for it".
• Saudi Arabia and Iran reportedly discussed de-escalation in a call, according to SPA.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry senior source suggests US has walked back on including Lebanon in the ceasefire with Iran, Al Arabiya reported.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu says will continue to strike Hezbollah with force, overnight, the IDF struck a series of terror infrastructures in southern Lebanon.
• Israel's Ministry of Energy directs the resumption of operations at the Karish gas platform after it halted due to the war, according to Israel's Channel 12.
• Hezbollah said its attacks on Israel will continue until the aggression stops, according to Fars News Agency, while it fires rockets at Israel citing ceasefire breaches.
• Missile fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel, according to Fars News Agency.
• Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon, despite a ceasefire with Iran, according to Anadolu Agency.
• French President Macron spoke with Iran's President Pezeshkian and US President Trump, and told both that their decision to accept the ceasefire was the best possible one.
• Russia launched 119 drones at Ukraine overnight according to UKR media.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Feb Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.43%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.38%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.83%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3%, prior 3.06%
• 8:30 am: United States Apr 4 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 202k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar 28 Continuing Claims, est. 1828k, prior 1841k
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q T GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q T Personal Consumption, est. 2%, prior 2%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q T GDP Price Index, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q T Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
• 10:00 am: United States Feb F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.5%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, oil prices are creeping up again as several questions remain about the ceasefire announced on Tuesday night. A few factors have driven that, but it’s pushed Brent crude oil (+2.34%) back up to $96.97/bbl, and it’s also taken the momentum out of the market rally overnight. Indeed, Asian equities are down across the board after yesterday’s surge, whilst US and European equity futures have also stumbled. So the Nikkei (-0.75%), the KOSPI (-1.61%), the CSI 300 (-0.64%) and the Hang Seng (-0.36%) have all fallen back this morning, and S&P 500 futures (-0.21%) are also pointing towards losses after a run of 6 consecutive gains.

Those overnight losses follow several indications that the ceasefire isn’t holding quite as expected on Tuesday night. For instance, both the UAE and Kuwait said yesterday that their air defences had been intercepting drones from Iran. And on the Iranian side, their Parliament’s Speaker Ghalibaf said that three points of the ceasefire agreement had been violated. Moreover, the IRGC warned of a “regret-inducing response" if Israel’s strikes against Lebanon didn’t stop immediately, whilst the Fars news agency said that the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was halted because of Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon. So collectively, that’s raised concern about how durable this ceasefire will prove, particularly with it only being a two-week truce.

In the meantime, President Trump also posted overnight that US forces would “remain in place, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” He also said that if it weren’t complied with, then the military action would be “stronger than anyone has ever seen before”, and that the US military was “looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest”. He also criticised NATO in a separate post overnight, saying that they weren’t “there when we needed them”, and called on people to “remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”. So that raised concerns about a repeat of mid-January, when Trump’s call for the US to take Greenland and the threat of European tariffs drove a risk-off move in global markets.

Nevertheless, compared to 24 hours ago, the market stress has eased considerably, as the ceasefire news and hopes for a de-escalation pathway have created a lot more optimism. Moreover, there are still signs of progress, with White House Press Secretary Leavitt saying that Vice President JD Vance would lead a delegation to Islamabad, with a first round of talks scheduled for Saturday morning.

So despite the overnight newsflow, the net result is that fears have eased considerably about a stagflationary shock, with huge gains for bonds and equities as a result. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices saw a sharp decline of -13.29% yesterday, taking them to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl. And in turn, there was an incredibly strong performance, particularly in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (+3.88%) posted its best performance since 2022, whilst 10yr bund yields (-14.1bps) saw their biggest decline since 2023. Similarly in the US, the S&P 500 (+2.51%) was also back within 3% of its record high, whilst US HY spreads (-17bps) fell beneath their pre-strike levels in late-February. So even with all the volatility of recent weeks it was another day of historic moves, and the overnight move for Brent crude this morning (+2.34%) still leaves us well beneath the pre-ceasefire oil price of around $110/bbl.

The ceasefire itself was the main driver of those moves, but they got further support from the positive tone of US officials yesterday. For example, President Trump said the US would “work closely with Iran”, and that they were discussing tariff and sanctions relief, though he also said in a subsequent post that countries supplying military weapons to Iran would face a US tariff of 50%. And later on, Vice President Vance said that “we’re on the right track” in negotiations.

So overall, even with the question marks around a ceasefire, the fact one had been agreed led to a huge wave of optimism, with investors feeling much clearer about the path to a de-escalation. Most directly, the prospect that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen led to a big decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-13.29%) down to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl, whilst WTI (-16.41%) fell to $94.41/bbl. Meanwhile, we saw a big decline in European natural gas, with front-month TTF futures (-14.92%) falling to €45.30/MWh, their lowest in over a month, which again eased fears about the scale of any European inflation shock. However, with persisting restrictions on Hormuz shipping, the declines were more modest further out the oil curve, with the 6-month Brent future (-2.33%) closing at $81.19/bbl, still above its levels late last week.

That backdrop of lower energy prices meant that inflation fears eased dramatically, which in tun led to a dovish repricing of central banks, especially in Europe. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap plummeted by -12.9bps to 3.13%, and the 1yr Euro inflation swap fell by a huge -38bps to 3.11%. In turn, that saw investors price out the likelihood of rapid rate hikes, with the probability of an ECB hike this month down from 68% before the ceasefire announcement to 32% by yesterday’s close, and a further decline to 29% this morning.

All that meant yields saw dramatic declines in Europe. Indeed, 10yr bund yields (-14.1bps) were back down to 2.94%, marking their biggest daily decline since April 2023. At the front end, the 2yr German yield (-22.4bps) saw its biggest decline since March 2023, the week of Credit Suisse’s collapse, so it was another day of historic declines. And it a similar story across the continent, with 10yr OATs (-20.1bps), BTPs (-26.1bps) and gilts (-19.3bps) all posting their biggest declines since 2023 as well.

US Treasuries saw more muted moves, given yields had already fallen late in Tuesday’s session and oil prices were edging higher later in the US session yesterday. So both 2yr yields (-0.1bps at 3.79%) and 10yr yields (-0.2bps at 4.29%) were little changed by the close, having been 6-8bps lower on the day early on. We also got the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, which showed the uncertainty on how officials should respond to the war’s impact. It said that “most participants” were concerned that “a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts”. But it also said that “Many participants pointing to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices, which could call for rate increases”.
For equities, there were also dramatic moves yesterday, as the oil price slump provided a huge lift on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, the rally was the biggest in several years, with the DAX (+5.06%) and the STOXX 600 (+3.88%) seeing their biggest gains since March 2022. Indeed, the latest gains left the STOXX 600 just over 3% beneath its record high just before the strikes began. Then in the US, the S&P 500 (+2.51%) advanced by a slightly smaller amount, but it was still a 6th consecutive advance for the index, with the VIX index of volatility (-4.74pts) down to its lowest since the strikes began, at 21.04pts. However, the main exception to those equity gains came from the energy sector, with the S&P 500’s energy component down -3.66%.

Emerging market assets were another beneficiary amid the easing energy fears, with the MSCI EM equity index (+5.49%) posting its biggest rise since the early Covid volatility in March 2020. By contrast, the dollar index (-0.73%) fell for a third consecutive session for the first time since the strikes began.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US PCE inflation for February, the weekly initial jobless claims, the third estimate of Q4 GDP, and German industrial production for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Sleijpen.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 08:18

Pro-Iranian Hackers Breached US Infrastructure, Feds Say

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pro-Iranian hackers have breached critical U.S. infrastructure, according to a joint warning issued Tuesday by several federal agencies.

High voltage power lines run through a sub-station along the electrical power grid in Miami on Jan. 14, 2026. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The advisory came only hours ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline for Iran, warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran refuses to open the Hormuz Strait to oil traffic. Trump later suspended the attack following negotiations mediated by Pakistan.

Iranian cyberattacks targeting U.S. organizations have increased recently with the ongoing war against Iran, the advisory said.

In the latest breach, hackers caused disruptions through “malicious interactions” on project files and data displays in organizations across multiple U.S. critical infrastructure sectors, including government services and facilities, local municipalities, water and waste systems, and energy infrastructure.

Hackers exploited vulnerabilities in internet-connected devices used to control machinery in the key U.S. sectors.

“In a few cases, this activity has resulted in operational disruption and financial loss,” reads the advisory, which was issued by the FBI, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the National Security Agency, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and U.S. Cyber Command’s Cyber National Mission Force.

U.S. entities that use the impacted devices, including programmable logic controllers (PLCs) from Rockwell Automation’s Allen Bradley brand, are advised to check their cyber defenses, apply safety measures listed in the warning, and review activity on their networks for indications that they were compromised to avoid the risk of further breaches.

Although the agencies specifically named the Rockwell Automation devices, they said other brands could have been affected as well.

“Due to the widespread use of these PLCs and the potential for additional targeting of other branded [operational technology] devices across critical infrastructure, the authoring agencies recommend U.S. organizations urgently review the tactics, techniques, and procedures and indicators of compromise in this advisory,” the advisory reads.

If U.S. organizations discover they were breached, they are advised to contact appropriate federal agencies for support, risk mitigation, and investigation assistance.

The joint notice Tuesday listed IP addresses that hackers used within specific time frames. The IP addresses were provided so U.S. companies can check against their own logs for indications of a breach by Iranian-backed threat actors.

“The authoring agencies recommend continually testing your security program, at scale, in a production environment to ensure optimal performance,” the warning reads.

This latest breach is not the first time Iran-backed hackers have breached critical U.S. infrastructure. In November 2023, a cyber group called “CyberAv3ngers” compromised at least 75 U.S.-based PLC devices.

Iran has also engaged in “malicious cyber activity” against key U.S. government officials and others involved in political campaigns, according to a September 2024 advisory.

“The cyber actors working on behalf of the IRGC gain access to victims’ personal and business accounts using social engineering techniques, often impersonating professional contacts on email or messaging platforms,” the 2024 notice reads.

Additionally, Iran-backed hackers targeted Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign and tried to deliver information they extracted to former President Joe Biden’s campaign.

The FBI and other agencies said in a statement that the hackers also tried sending the stolen Trump data to media organizations.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 08:05

Federal Appeals Court Allows Pentagon To Designate Anthropic As A Supply-Chain Risk

In a significant development for the intersection of artificial intelligence policy and national security, a federal appeals court in Washington ruled on April 8 that the Department of War may designate Anthropic as a supply-chain risk while a full judicial review plays out. The decision came after the AI company sought an emergency stay to block the controversial designation.

Pages from the Anthropic website and the company's logos are displayed on a computer screen in New York on Feb. 26, 2026. AP Photo/Patrick Sison

The three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit concluded that Anthropic “has not satisfied the stringent requirements for a stay pending court review,” allowing the blacklist to remain in effect for now. This ruling directly conflicts with a temporary injunction issued last month by a federal district court in California, which had paused the designation during ongoing litigation.

The designation, authorized under federal laws intended to shield military and government systems from supply-chain vulnerabilities and foreign sabotage, functions as an effective blacklist. It prohibits Anthropic from conducting business with the federal government or its contractors and directs federal agencies, contractors, and suppliers to terminate existing ties with the company.

The move originated after Anthropic declined a Department of War request to alter the user policies and safety guardrails of its flagship AI model, Claude. The company refused to remove restrictions that prevent the AI from being used for mass surveillance or the development and operation of fully autonomous weapons systems. Anthropic has emphasized its commitment to “constitutional AI” principles and responsible deployment, arguing that such guardrails are essential to ethical AI use.

The Pentagon has stated publicly that it does not intend to employ Claude for those specific purposes, but it has insisted on the flexibility to use the technology for all lawful military applications. President Donald Trump weighed in on social media earlier, accusing Anthropic of trying to “strong-arm” the federal government by using its AI policies to dictate military decisions.

Late on April 8, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche celebrated the appeals court decision on X (formerly Twitter), describing it as “a resounding victory for military readiness.” He added: “Our military needs full access to Anthropic’s models if its technology is integrated into our sensitive systems.”

Anthropic, a prominent AI firm founded by former OpenAI executives and backed by major investors including Amazon and Google, has positioned itself as a leader in safe and reliable AI development. Its Claude models are widely used in enterprise, research, and creative applications precisely because of their built-in safeguards.

The case is believed to mark the first time such a supply-chain risk designation — typically reserved for foreign entities posing security threats — has been applied to a major U.S.-based AI company. It underscores deepening tensions between commercial AI developers’ emphasis on ethical guardrails and the government’s push for unfettered access to advanced technology for defense purposes.

Litigation continues in both the California district court and the D.C. Circuit, and further updates are expected as the conflicting rulings are reconciled.

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 08:00

Will Europe Have Its Own FBI? Polish MEP Sounds Alarm Over EU's Planned Expansion Of Powers For Europol

Via Remix News,

Polish Law and Justice (PiS) MEP Mariusz Kamiński raises alarm about the European Commission’s plans to change Europol’s operations, warning that “the European Commission is quietly building EU law enforcement agencies,” reports Do Rzeczy. There are now fears that Europe could have its own FBI, with vastly expanded and centralized powers.

“The European Public Prosecutor’s Office has already been established, and now the European Commission wants to turn Europol into a ‘truly operational EU police agency.’ This means that citizens of member states will be able to become the target of investigations and operational activities of European law enforcement agencies, bypassing national authorities. This would be a real ‘milestone’ in the construction of a centralized European state. A very dangerous situation!” wrote the former interior and administration minister on X.

Kamiński sent a letter to the European Commission questioning the activities described and defending Europol as it stands.

The agency has been in operation since Jan. 3, 1994.

He notes that “Europol’s success is based on cooperation, supporting member states, and coordinating the fight against cross-border crime. Europol’s activities are particularly important in combating drug crimes, human smuggling, and VAT fraud. This model is a good example of effective cooperation at the European level.”

“Therefore, I oppose the announcements of transforming Europol into a fully operational police agency, which have been met with criticism from many experts and member states. During the LIBE meeting on March 19, 2026, Commissioner Brunner concluded his statement by saying that it will not be a European FBI, which can be interpreted as a departure from the Commission’s radical announcement,” he continued.

The PiS MEP asks: “How does the Commission understand the concept of a ‘truly operational police agency’?” and about safeguards to ensure that Europol “remains an agency supporting member states and not an authority exercising direct police powers.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 05:00

Cost Of Living Dominates Many Nations' Biggest Worries

According to Statista Consumer Insights, prices and the cost of living are considered the biggest challenge in around half of the 32 countries included in a recent survey. 

This is also true for United States, where the issue ranks first among the 18 surveyed options, with 50 percent citing it as a main concern.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, the issue is also collectively seen as the biggest problem facing Australia, Japan, Germany and Saudi Arabia.

You will find more infographics at Statista

However, this is not the case everywhere.

In Spain (59 percent) and the Netherlands, the availability of housing is perceived as a significantly more pressing challenge.

The same applies to crime in Brazil (62 percent) and other Latin American countries as well as to the economic situation and unemployment cited most often in Italy and India (50-52 percent of respondents).

Poles meanwhile saw health and social security services as the most central problem, with half of respondents picking this issue.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 04:15