Europe's EV Sales Jump 51% As Iran War Sends Gasoline Prices Soaring

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

Registrations of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe’s key automotive markets surged by 51% in March as the Iran war pushed gasoline prices to multi-year highs, data published by research firm New Automotive and trade association E-Mobility Europe showed on Monday.

A Tesla charging on a street in Amsterdam

More than 224,000 new electric passenger cars were registered in March alone across 15 key EU + EFTA markets, the analysis found. These sales accounted for as much as 22% of all new passenger car sales across the key European markets.

In another sign that expensive gasoline is pushing drivers to EVs, European Union member states registered more than 500,000 new electric cars in the first quarter of 2026, a surge of 33.5% compared to the same period last year, the data showed.

New BEV registrations accelerated across every major EU market in the first quarter of 2026. Europe’s five largest countries — Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland — all recorded BEV growth above 40% year-to-date.

Europe’s biggest car market, Germany, saw a rebound in EV sales after the introduction of new incentives, with around one in four cars registered in March fully electric – a 42% year-to-date jump, according to the data.

Italy’s BEV registrations soared by 65% year-to-date, boosting the EV market share to 8.6% in March from about 5% as of the end of 2025.

France continued to lead among large markets with a 28% BEV share in March, underpinned by its social leasing scheme, and nearly 50% year-to-date growth.

Energy security was the catalyst for change in driver choice in recent weeks, analysts at New Automotive and E-Mobility Europe say.

“At a time when energy security has moved to the top of the political agenda, the EV transition is delivering real and measurable resilience,” commented Ben Nelmes, CEO of New Automotive.

“The pace of change we’re now seeing across major European markets — including countries like Italy and Poland that were slower to start — suggests the transition has entered a new phase.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 07:20

IMO Draws Up Hormuz Evacuation Plan For 800 Ships Trapped In Gulf

Tanker traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remained muted as of Tuesday morning, with maritime movement still far below pre-US-Iran conflict levels. The ship backlog in the Persian Gulf has now swelled to a staggering 800 vessels, underscoring the scale of the disruption, while the International Maritime Organization is reportedly drawing up evacuation plans for stranded ships.

Bloomberg quoted the Secretary-General of the IMO, Arsenio Dominguez, who stated on the sidelines of Singapore Maritime Week earlier today that the IMO is preparing a humanitarian evacuation of 800 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf after the nearly two-month conflict.

"In order for us to do anything at all, we need to make sure that the conflict has come to an end, that there are no threats of any ships being attacked, and that the region is clear from any hazards, including mines," Dominguez said.

The proposed evacuation plan would prioritize ship departures based in part on how long crews have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, with vessels using the long-established Traffic Separation Scheme through the strait.

Dominguez said the effort is focused on evacuating seafarers, not necessarily protecting cargo values, describing it as a humanitarian corridor rather than a commercial reopening.

"This is about the seafarers. This is about the people," Dominguez said. "Because if we actually start looking into the cargo, the values, the commodities, et cetera, then this is not going to work. The decision of the council was very clear. It's a humanitarian corridor to evacuate the seafarers from the region."

The Hormuz situation has been made worse in recent days as Iran's military vowed to retaliate after the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship near the maritime chokepoint. The U.S. naval blockade of the strait is still ongoing.

Since the commencement of the blockade against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, U.S. forces have directed 27 vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port. pic.twitter.com/G8dl96wN4H

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 20, 2026

Since the start of the blockade, the U.S. military has directed 27 ships to turn back or return to an Iranian port, according to CENTCOM on X.

There have been five passenger ships that steamed through the strait during its temporary opening last week. There was a report from Lloyd's List that said more than two dozen Iranian-linked ships have evaded the blockade.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, as Vice President JD Vance and other U.S. negotiators are set to travel to Pakistan for a new round of peace talks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 06:55

How The Iranian Regime Destroyed Its Economy... Long Before The War

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

As negotiations edge towards a ceasefire, Tehran is trying to blame the country’s economic collapse on the war and foreign pressure.

Yet the data tell a different story: Iran’s economy was already structurally broken before the war.

Years of ideological policymaking, institutionalised corruption, and the militarisation of the economy have caused Iran’s economic ruin. 

Iran has been in a state of permanent economic emergency since at least 2018. Official inflation has remained above 40% year after year, destroying the country’s middle class.

World Bank estimates show average inflation in the high 30s for most of the 2018–2025 period, with spikes of up to 60%, driven by massive currency depreciation and the constant monetisation of fiscal deficits. 

Monetary collapse and the myth of sanctions

Since 2018, the rial has lost almost 95% of its value against the dollar, including a depreciation of more than 60% just between 2024 and 2025.

This collapse stems from relentless money printing to finance uncontrolled budget deficits, a domestic loss of confidence in the currency, capital flight, and a regime that has treated the central bank as a mere financing arm of the state.

All of this has happened while the government received billions of dollars from oil exports and enormous financial support from China, Russia, and other Asian countries. 

This is a state that prints money without restraint or underlying demand

The regime insists that Western sanctions are the primary cause of hardship. This is a convenient but false excuse. 

The Iranian regime has not fallen into economic crisis because of U.S. sanctions. It has dozens of trade agreements with the world’s largest economies and generates enormous oil income from exports of more than 1.3 million barrels per day.

The problem is that practically none of this wealth reaches ordinary citizens. This is a state that prints money without restraint or underlying demand, borrows heavily from its own banking system and generates capital flights while its currency collapses. 

Financing terror and institutional corruption

The elimination of Mohammad Reza Ashrafi Kahi, head of Trade at the Oil Headquarters, exposed a multibillion-dollar structure that financed the military activities of the Revolutionary Guard, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other armed groups using revenues from crude oil sales. 

Between November 2024 and November 2025, government debt to the banking system increased by 41% and debt to the central bank by 68%, forcing the authorities to monetise the deficit.

Over the same period, commercial banks increased their borrowing from the central bank by 63%, flooding the economy with worthless local currency.

Official sources cited by the oil exporters’ association report 47 billion dollars in crude oil and gas export revenues in 2025

As a result, the money supply was growing at annual rates of more than 40%, according to official data compiled by expert Mohamad Machine Chian, with the rial plunging despite massive export revenues. 

These huge oil revenues are used to finance corruption and terror. Official sources cited by the oil exporters’ association report 47 billion dollars in crude oil and gas export revenues in 2025.

With that level of income, the economy would be growing, and inflation would be moderate if the funds were used to benefit Iranian society and its productive fabric.

Instead, reports on capital outflows describe a clear pattern: money leaves Iran faster than it comes in, which forces the regime to rely even more on the printing press and on internal fiscal plunder, according to the BTI Project. 

IRGC dominance and the destruction of the private sector

Iran has implemented all the measures that demolish an economy: legal and investor insecurity, expropriations, price controls, subsidies, and an oversized public sector that preys on a private sector now reduced to barely 15% of the economy.

When oil revenues are diverted to finance terrorist and military projects, the government tries to create an illusion of strength through monetary financing and opaque off-budget operations, accelerating inflation and currency collapse.

Over decades, the Guards have transformed themselves from a military organisation into a sprawling business empire 

At the heart of Iran’s self-inflicted economic damage lies the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Over decades, the Guards have transformed themselves from a military organisation into a sprawling business empire that now controls an estimated 45–50% of economic activity.

Through parastatal conglomerates, front companies, and privileged access to state contracts, the IRGC dominates key sectors including energy, construction, telecommunications, and transport (Iran: Institutionalized Corruption and a Collapsed Economy, Shamsi Saadati). 

The human cost and obstacles to recovery

This dominance has several destructive effects.

Crowding out productive investment. Most oil and state revenues are sent to IRGC-linked entities. A large part of resources is used to finance regional terror groups and foreign expansion adventures. 

While other oil exporters built sovereign wealth funds, invested in human capital, and diversified into services and manufacturing, Iran’s regime used oil rents to entrench political control, finance terror, and reward cronyism.

The human cost of this mismanagement created poverty and unrest. Years of high inflation have pushed most of the middle class into poverty by wiping out savings and eroding wages in real terms. 

By the time the current war began, the economy was already in deep crisis. 

The main obstacles to recovery are political rather than technical. Iran needs fiscal discipline, central bank independence, transparent budgeting, a sharp reduction in the IRGC’s economic dominance, and a credible commitment to the rule of law and property rights.

Instead, the regime has consistently chosen its survival, imposing a system of terror and sacrificing growth and prosperity to maintain political control. 

Long before the first bomb fell, the regime had already destroyed the economy and any prospect of sustainable growth and social stability.

The challenge for any future government will be to rebuild an economy that serves citizens rather than a narrow circle of officials.

Ending the war is urgent; ending the current regime’s economic model is essential.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 06:30

Data Centers Drove Half Of All Growth In US Electricity Use In 2025

Global electricity demand rose by 3% in 2025, with growth nearly triple compared to the 1.3% increase in total energy consumption, as data centers and electric vehicles continued to push power use higher, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Monday.

Overall global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3% in 2025, slightly below the previous decade's average of 1.4% and significantly lower than in 2024, as global economic growth slowed and cooling demand in Asia was lower than in 2024, the IEA found in its annual Global Energy Review report published today.

While total energy demand growth cooled, electricity demand continued to grow strongly, with an annual rise of 3% last year, the IEA found. 

The growth rate dropped from 4.4% in 2024, when intense heat waves in India and Southeast Asia had boosted electricity consumption. Still, the 2025 growth rate in electricity demand remained above the 2.8% annual average between 2014 and 2024 and was also well over twice the 1.3% rate of overall global energy demand growth in 2025.

The global numbers mask the important role played by China. The country’s energy intensity improvements slowed sharply from nearly 4% per year between 2010 and 2019 to just 0.6% per year from 2019 to 2024. In 2025, China’s energy intensity improvement jumped back to above 3%. Putting China aside, global energy intensity improvements would have appeared more stable in recent years. Understanding why China’s energy intensity slowed so dramatically in recent years requires further analysis. However, it appears to be in part because of adverse weather and partly due to structural changes in China’s economy after Covid-19 towards a more export- and industry-intensive model of growth.

Electricity demand in the United States grew by 2% last year, slower than the 2.8% growth seen in 2024 but more than three times as fast as the average growth rate over the previous decade, the IEA said.

The buildings sector accounted for 80% of US power demand growth in 2025, boosted in particular by rapidly-increasing data center loads. Data center power demand alone contributed around half of the entire increase in electricity consumption in the U.S. last year. A cold winter, with a nearly 10% increase in heating degree days, also supported power demand in 2025 by boosting space heating needs, according to the Paris-based agency.

Solar power met the most of the energy demand growth globally last year, followed by gas, the IEA said.

In the electricity sector, the additional 600 terawatt-hours of solar PV generation worldwide in 2025 marked the largest structural increase ever recorded in a single year for any electricity generation technology, contributing to a decline in coal-fired electricity generation globally. Battery storage was the fastest-growing power sector technology in 2025. The roughly 110 gigawatts of new battery storage capacity added during the year exceeded the largest-ever annual capacity additions for natural gas. Meanwhile over 12 gigawatts of nuclear power reactors began construction in 2025, amid renewed momentum for nuclear projects in several regions.

“Global energy demand continued to increase in 2025 against a complex economic and geopolitical backdrop, with one trend unmistakeable: the expanding electrification of economies,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“Electricity consumption is growing much faster than overall energy demand – and one energy source is growing much faster than any other. Solar PV accounted for over a quarter of all of the world’s energy demand growth – more than any other source, for the first time – followed right after by natural gas. In today’s rapidly shifting landscape, countries that prioritise resilience and diversification will be best placed to manage volatility and deliver secure and affordable energy in the years ahead.”

Here are the reports' key findings summarized:

• All major energy fuels and technologies grew in 2025 – but at very different rates. Overall global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3%, just below the average for the previous decade. Slower economic growth and slower growth in energy-intensive industries in some regions, lower cooling demand, and faster efficiency improvements all contributed to slower demand growth.

• Solar PV, the largest single source of growth, met more than 25% of higher demand, followed by natural gas, which contributed 17%. This was the first time on record that a modern renewable source contributed the largest share of global energy demand growth. Demand for oil, natural gas and coal all grew in 2025, but at a slower rate than in 2024. Low-emissions sources combined – solar, wind, nuclear, hydropower and other renewables – contributed nearly 60% of the growth in global demand.

• Demand growth in the United States rose to its second highest level since 2000, excluding post-recession rebound years, boosted by strong electricity demand from data centers, robust industrial growth and colder temperatures. The People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) accounted for the largest overall share of global energy demand growth, but at 1.7% its growth rate slowed sharply due to the rapid growth of renewables and efficiency improvements.

• Demand for electricity grew at well over twice the rate of energy demand, reaffirming that the world has entered the Age of Electricity. Growth of nearly 3% remained above the average of 2.8% over the last decade, but was slower than in 2024, largely due to one-off factors such as lower demand for cooling in India and Southeast Asia. Electricity demand growth was again driven by a wide range of end uses in buildings and industry. Although only contributing a small share of this total growth, demand from electric vehicles and data centres grew rapidly. In the United States, data centres made up half of all growth in electricity use.

• Oil demand growth slowed further in 2025, increasing by 0.65 million barrels per day (mb/d) or 0.7%, down from 2024’s already muted 0.75 mb/d of growth. The increase in both years, which was in line with IEA projections, remained well below the average annual rise between 2010 and 2019 of 1.4 mb/d. The slower increase mainly reflected weaker growth in petrochemical feedstocks, notably in China, while continued growth of electric vehicles kept oil demand for road transport in check. Electric car sales continued their rapid growth, climbing over 20% to more than 20 million units – around one quarter of new car sales in 2025.

• Gas demand growth slowed markedly in 2025, rising by around 1%, down from the 2.8% recorded in 2024, amid relatively high prices in the first half of the year. Incremental demand was largely concentrated in the United States and European Union, supported by colder winter weather, and in the Middle East, where gas use in the power sector grew quickly. By contrast, Asia Pacific demand grew at its weakest pace since the 2022 energy crisis.

• Coal demand in 2025 grew only modestly above 2024 levels, rising by around 0.4%. In the United States, gas-to-coal switching and strong growth in electricity demand supported a 10% rise in coal use, reversing the trend of recent declines. Coal demand was flat in China: strong renewables growth pushed down coal use in electricity generation, while in industry, lower coal use in steel and cement production was offset by increased use for chemicals. Coal demand for power generation decreased in India, mostly due to an early, strong and long monsoon.

• The increase in generation from renewables and nuclear power in 2025 exceeded the total growth in electricity supply. The 2025 increase in solar PV of 600 terawatt-hours (TWh) was the largest-ever electricity generation increase by any source in one year, outside of periods of post-crisis recovery. The rise in solar PV alone met around 70% of electricity generation growth. Renewables combined now virtually match total global generation from coal. In the European Union, the share of solar PV and wind reached 30% in 2025, surpassing that of fossil fuels for the first time. Electricity generation from natural gas and from nuclear power continued to grow at the global level in 2025.  

• Annual global renewable capacity additions rose to a record 800 gigawatts (GW), of which solar contributed 75%. Battery storage was the fastest growing power technology: capacity additions rose by around 40% in 2025 to reach almost 110 GW, more than the highest-ever annual capacity additions from natural gas. In addition, construction started on over 12 GW of nuclear power capacity in 2025.

• Global growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions slowed further in 2025, rising by around 0.4%. Emissions from China fell due to the boom in renewables, structural declines in energy-intensive industry, and overall slower demand growth. India’s energy-related CO2 emissions were flat for the first time since the 1970s, largely due to cyclical effects from a strong monsoon combined with structural growth in renewables. A cold winter and higher natural gas prices pushed up emissions in advanced economies. Due to these trends, emissions from advanced economies grew faster (+0.5%) than those from emerging market and developing economies (+0.3%) for the first time since the 1990s.

• The rollout of clean energy technologies since 2019 avoided more than 35 exajoules of annual fossil fuel demand in 2025, equivalent to around 7% of global fossil fuel use annually. Deployment of solar PV, wind, nuclear, electric cars and heat pumps since 2019 also prevents 3 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, or around 8% of global emissions. The avoided coal demand (around 800 million tonnes of coal equivalent) equates to more than the entire coal use of India in 2025. Estimated avoided gas demand (over 260 billion cubic metres) is equivalent to almost half the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.

Full report here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 05:45

"Use The Momentum": The EU Moves To Destroy The Last Vestiges Of National Sovereignty

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary last weekend was celebrated by many who saw the former president as establishing single-party rule in his central European nation. The irony is that this claimed victory for democracy may fuel the establishment of a global governance system that is neither democratic nor accountable to citizens.

The European Union was criticized by many for taking sides in the Hungarian election and for undermining Orban, who asserted national priorities in disputes with the EU. 

No sooner had Orban conceded defeat than a jubilant European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for the final coup de grace for national identity and sovereignty: the elimination of the ability of nations to stand against EU policies.

Orban was controversial for his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his lack of support for Ukraine. He was also accused of authoritarianism and corruption. I shared in some of those criticisms.

However, the unintended consequence of this election could be the removal of a single autocrat in favor of a global bureaucracy.

Van der Leyen helped elect the pro-EU Peter Magyar in order to remove a barrier to the EU’s ultimate exercise of power. The EU had been squeezing Hungary over its defiance by holding back billions in funds. Despite his tough talk on negotiations with the EU, Magyar is expected by EU bureaucrats to be a suppliant, willing to fall into line with the EU agenda.

The EU Chief has reportedly already given Magyar a list of 27 demands he must meet before she will turn the spigot back on. She did not try to hide the agenda, announcing that the EU needed to “use the momentum now” to consolidate its power.

With Hungary out of the way, Von der Leyen is calling for the EU to finally do away with the last vestige of national sovereignty: the veto exercised by its member states.

Under the plan, member states would lose control of their policy and could be forced to adhere to the priorities and values of the EU majority.

The EU Chief celebrated the new day of global governance in the making: “Moving to qualified majority voting in foreign policy is an important way to avoid systemic blockages, as we have seen in the past.”

In “Rage and the Republic,” I discuss the dangers posed to the American republic this century by the rise of global governance systems like the EU. The book explores how globalists planned to gradually get nations to yield their authority to the EU — destroying national identity and sovereignty in favor of an EU bureaucracy in Brussels.

As the EU moves to kill off national sovereignty, EU commissioners are calling for a single European military command, completing a longstanding globalist goal.

The 250th anniversary of our republic is occurring as we face an unprecedented EU threat. Our revolution was fought against a foreign empire. It now faces an even greater threat from a global government asserting the right to compel American companies to censor Americans and comply with environmental, social and governance or ESG policies.

At the same time, American figures such as Hillary Clinton are encouraging the EU to deprive Americans of their First Amendment rights using the infamous Digital Services Act to restore speech controls to social media. Other Americans have testified before the EU, calling on it to fight the U.S. Banners are now flying in Europe declaring, “We are the Free World Now,” as the globalists attempt to supplant freedoms guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution.

If the American Republic is to survive another 250 years, it must preserve key rights that the EU has been systematically destroying in Europe — freedom of speech, division of powers and political accountability of decision-makers.

That is why, I believe, the EU is inherently unstable and likely to ultimately collapse.

The EU has worked very hard to dismantle national sovereignty and identity in its member states. Historically, such collapses have been followed by different forms of tyranny.

Whatever comes next — and I could be wrong in my pessimism about the EU — the U.S. must take seriously the threat that this global governance system poses to our own values and sovereignty.

Von der Leyen is right that there is “momentum now” for the globalists, but the momentum of history still rests with the U.S. and its unique experiment in self-governance.

We saw this threat before, and we defeated a world empire. If we are to survive and thrive in this century, we will need to return to our own creation as a republic — to dig deep down and remember who we are as citizens.

Ours was the first Enlightenment revolution that embraced natural rights originating not from government but from God. We remain a unique people, joined by an article of faith found in our own Declaration of Independence. If this republic is to survive, it will be up to each of us, in the words of Benjamin Franklin, to “keep it.”

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 05:00

Gaza Needs Over $71BN In Next Decade If Enclave Hopes To Recover: New UN Report

More than $71 billion will be required over the next decade to recover and rebuild Gaza following the brutal Israel-Hamas war, according to a new report. Hamas leadership has been largely decimated, though the group has yet to be completely disarmed, and there are still calls within the Israeli government among some hawkish officials to simply conquer and promote Jewish settlement of the whole territory.

In their final Gaza Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) which was released Monday, the European Union and the United Nations said the conflict has had a "catastrophic impact on human development" and left the enclave in urgent need of massive funding.

UNRWA image: Destruction in northern Gaza.

A massive $26.3 billion will be needed in just the first 18 months to restore essential services and rebuild infrastructure, per the report. And much more will be needed in the years to follow if Gaza is ever returned to 'normal'.

"Physical infrastructure damages are estimated at $35.2 billion, with economic and social losses amounting to $22.7 billion," a joint statement said.

Gaza official remains under a fragile ceasefire agreed in October following two years of war triggered by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel. Gaza health officials have stated over 75,000 people died in 2+ years of heavy Israeli bombardment, as well as ground operations.

The hardest-hit sectors include "housing, health, education, commerce, and agriculture, and the war has set back human development in Gaza by 77 years - per the report, also as reviewed by Al Jazeera.

There currently doesn't really seem to be much of a serious plan or much momentum toward rebuilding, however, given there are currently two competing visions for reconstruction of Gaza: one is Trump's 'Board of Peace' and the other is an UN-backed approach.

The United Nations and the European Union have said reconstruction must be "Palestinian-led" and based on "approaches that actively support the transition of governance to the Palestinian Authority."

But part of Washington's approach is to establish a sprawling multi-national military base inside Gaza. This could include some 5,000 troops - including potentially American soldiers.

However, the Trump administration has consistently stated it doesn't plant to put 'boots on the ground' in Gaza, but that could change. Turkey has been poised to offer some troops, but this is highly controversial from the West's perspective.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 04:15

Russia's Tuapse Refinery Attacked 2nd Time In Days, While Battling Oil Spill Into Black Sea

There's been yet another major attack on Russia's major Black Sea energy hub and port of Tuapse, after just a few days prior a drone wave had unleashed a fire so big it cold be seen from space, given the over 100-mile smoke plume that had spread over the Black Sea. 

In this latest overnight Ukrainian assault reported Monday, the drone attack killed least one person and resulted in more major fires, and now emergency crews are battling their second huge blaze at the site in under a week. There's been a massive oil spill into coastal waters to boot.

Screen

Last week's fires (which began with the last Thursday strike) had only just been extinguished at the Rosneft-owned refinery.

The prior drone wave had damaged residential areas, while this fresh attack has damaged a gas pipeline, a church and two schools - according to regional reports.

"Fire crews and rescue services are currently engaged at every site," Tuapse Mayor Sergei Boyko said, confirming that several locations along the export terminal were struck.

Ukraine's military took responsibility for the attack, as well as hits on two oil depots in nearby Crimea.

As for last week's initial assault, Russian media says it resulted in a significant oil spill into the waters of the Black Sea, with TASS providing the following details:

• An oil product spill into the Black Sea waters occurred in Tuapse after the UAV attack carried out by Ukrainian forces on the night of April 16, according to the regional operational headquarters’ Telegram channel.
• On April 19, an oil slick was detected in the sea on a satellite image.
• The oil slick is located about one and a half miles from the port of Tuapse.
• The area of contamination of the Black Sea with oil products amounts to 10,000 square meters, according to the Telegram channel of the Krasnodar Region operational headquarters.
• Specialists have also contained the oil spill in the Tuapse River following the UAV attack on the night of April 16.
• A total of 750 meters of containment booms and five specialized oil recovery devices have been deployed, and an oil trap has been installed.

These daily and nightly cross-border attacks have however largely slipped from mainstream headline coverage, given their frequency - to the point of being 'routine' (a grim reality).

Rosneft’s Tuapse Oil Depot and Export Facility in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, is currently ablaze, with dozens of tanks seen burning as thick black smoke pours into the sky, following a large-scale drone attack tonight by Ukraine against oil infrastructure across Southern Russia. pic.twitter.com/ZmtlLljYiI

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 20, 2026

Often even when refineries or major infrastructure is hit in either country, the event barely gets coverage in Western media at this point. With the globe's attention focused on the Iran war and blockaded Hormuz Strait, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations having long effectively collapsed, the war in eastern Europe is expected to grind on for some time to come.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 02:45

The US Demanded That Europeans Accelerate Their Transition To 'NATO 3.0'

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

This might be the US’ final warning before it takes drastic action to punish those who continue to reject Trump’s demands.

Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby gave an important speech at mid-April’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group in which he urged the Europeans to step up their transition to something that he described earlier this year as “NATO 3.0”.

As was explained here, “The idea is that NATO should return to focusing on defending itself instead of overextending itself in the Indo-Pacific, West Asia, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere”, and the preceding hyperlinked analysis explains how it aligns with Trump 2.0’s policies.

Circling back to Colby’s speech, he demanded that “Europe must accelerate its assumption of primary responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent”, including arming Ukraine through the “Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List” (PURL) program in which the US plays the most significant role.

To that end, “The need to quickly rebuild European munitions stocks is paramount, as is the need to remove protectionist trade barriers that stifle the continent’s industrial potential.”

He added that “Developing a robust, capable, and integrated European defense industrial base cannot simply be an aspiration, but an absolute pre-requisite for credible deterrence and defense.”

Knowing how obsessed they are with Ukraine, Colby then threw in that “This will be critical to achieving an end to the war in Ukraine, on terms that support an enduring peace.”

He then called for more “deeds and a fundamental change in attitude” from them to “accelerate this transition to a ‘NATO 3.0’”.

Colby concluded that “If Europe rises to this moment – truly embracing primary responsibility for the defense of the continent in line with our vision of a rebalanced ‘NATO 3.0’ – we will all be stronger and more credible in defending our people and our national interests.”

He also ominously warned them midway through his speech that “I underline the criticality of [NATO stepping up to help secure the Strait of Hormuz per Trump’s expectation] for our relationship going forward.”

As was assessed here last month and was just implicitly reaffirmed by Colby, the US might speed up its planned military reprioritization away from Europe to the Americas and the Indo-Pacific if they reject Trump’s request by ending its significant PURL contributions before NATO can replace them. That would facilitate a full Russian victory in Ukraine, or at least spook the Europeans into fearing that this is inevitable if they don’t step up right after he cuts off arms again, thus getting them to do what he wants.

If some members of the bloc refuse to contribute while others do, then Trump might impose his reportedly considered pay-to-play model that was described here, which would remove “dissidents” from decision-making processes and withdraw the US’ Article 5 support from them. These punishments could also be imposed for refusing to spend 5% of GDP on defense. It’s very likely that Colby conveyed these punitive plans to his counterparts on the sidelines of the event even if he only hinted at them.

His urging of them to step up their transition to “NATO 3.0”, which is his brainchild, can therefore be considered the US’ final warning before it takes drastic action to punish those who continue to reject Trump’s demands.

Imposing the pay-to-play model is one form that this could take while cutting off arms to Ukraine once again could be another.

Both could also happen together.

It’s unclear what NATO as a whole will do, let alone its individual members, but it’s obvious that Trump is losing patience with them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 02:00