Forget The Plague, CDC Reports Recent Surge In Deadly Brain Fungus Cases

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said in a recent report that healthcare officials and providers should be aware of a rare but deadly fungal infection that can affect the brain and has seen a surge in recent years.

Joel and 'neurodivergent Ellie' from The Last of Us, where a not-so rare and very deadly fungal infection wipes out most of the planet...

Published on Oct. 2, the agency's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report called for greater surveillance of Cladophialophora bantiana, which U.S. officials have said is known to cause brain abscesses.

According to the report, the infection is linked to a 60 to 70 percent fatality rate. However, CDC researchers said in the report that national surveillance efforts currently don't exist, and that the fungus's "environmental reservoir" as well as the "route of infection" is not completely known.

Between January 2009 and July 2026, there have been 48 confirmed cases and one possible case of Cladophialophora bantiana found in samples obtained primarily from central nervous system tissue, the CDC said.

But from 2023 to 2025, "detections of the fungus increased approximately fourfold," according to the CDC report.

Researchers said that it's not clear why there has been an increase in recent years but stressed that more research into its risk factors "and potentially evolving virulence are warranted."

In patients with a brain abscess, healthcare providers should now consider whether it's due to a fungus, the report said, adding that infected people will require prompt antifungal therapy and possible surgery.

"Surgical excision might improve patient outcomes," it said. Meanwhile, "patients with infection require prompt antifungal therapy, and surgical excision might improve patient outcomes," it added.

Led by Joshua Lieberman of the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle, the researchers added that the presumed route of infection is inhalation of the fungus or direct inoculation following a skin injury.

The fungus "is a rare but important cause of brain abscess in both healthy and immunosuppressed people," Lieberman told MedPage Today in an interview published on Oct. 5, adding that the reason it goes to the brain is "a little bit of a mystery."

What is worrying about the infection, he added, is that "people who have apparently healthy immune systems get the infection and are also at high risk of death."

"It's alarming that it occurs outside of those typical high-risk populations who have pretty profound immunosuppression," Lieberman stated.

The median age of those who contracted the infection was 68 years, according to the CDC report.

Cases have been found in 21 states across the United States, as well as the District of Columbia, the CDC report said. California had the most, with six cases, while Florida and Texas each reported five, and Pennsylvania confirmed four.

Aside from Cladophialophora bantiana, the CDC has also issued reports about a drug-resistant type of fungus known as Candida auris, which is a yeast that is known to spread in healthcare settings.

The Last Of Us Joel and Ellie action figures (not dolls, shut up) Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 15:10

Trump Wants To Build A New Camp David In The Most Trump Place Possible

President Donald Trump wants to turn part of his own Florida golf course into a new presidential retreat modeled after Camp David, an unusual proposal that would further blur the line between the presidency and Trump's sprawling private business empire.

The plan calls for a portion of Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach to become an official presidential retreat where future commanders-in-chief could vacation, conduct diplomacy and host foreign leaders, the Washington Post reports.

Under the proposal, the federal government would receive land for the presidential compound, while the remainder of the property would continue operating as a private Trump golf club.

Trump would personally cover the cost of constructing the presidential residence and related facilities, according to Harvey Oyer, an attorney representing the club. The facility would be developed in coordination with the General Services Administration and Secret Service.

"This is a gift that the president would like to share with his successors, the people of America, and his fellow Palm Beach County residents," Oyer wrote in a letter to county officials obtained by The Post.

Future presidents would reportedly receive complimentary memberships to Trump's club and could use the new compound to host foreign leaders and international summits, according to the plan.

An unnamed White House official defended the location to The Post, pointing to its proximity to the airport, lack of nearby high-rise buildings and homes, security advantages and access to law enforcement.

"The property is minutes away from the Donald J. Trump International Airport, does not have buildings looming, does not have houses along the course, has great security features, is close to law enforcement, and happens to be a highly-rated golf course. These are features that are necessary for any presidential retreat," the official said.

Oyer suggested the project could eventually become an internationally recognized symbol of the American presidency.

"Just as Camp David, Windsor Castle, or the Élysée Palace are known worldwide, so too will the Presidential Golf Course in Palm Beach County," he reportedly wrote.

However, the proposal has some hurdles.

Palm Beach County owns the land underneath the golf course, meaning local officials would have to play a role in making Trump's vision a reality.

County Administrator Joseph Abruzzo told The Post that officials are taking the proposal seriously and communicating with the federal government as they examine a potential parcel.

*** OUR WAREHOUSE FOUND A BOX OF 50 ALMOST EXPIRED PEAK FOCUS ***

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 14:55

Iraq Formally Requests Syria Act As 'Hormuz Bypass' Route For Its Crude

Syria's geography has long given the country huge economic opportunities as a major energy transfer hub connecting Middle East states to the Mediterranean.

But as the last decade plus of proxy war which resulted in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad demonstrated, Syria has also long been target of foreign machinations bent on seeing a puppet state installed in Damascus. The US-Gulf allies broadly waged war against the so-called 'Shia crescent' represented in the old Baghdad-Damascus-Hezbollah axis.

Henry Kissinger famously stated of its opportunity-rich geography, "you can't make war in the Middle East without Egypt and you can't make peace without Syria." The historiographical term Pax Syriana also captures this concept: as goes Syria, so goes the whole region.

Prior file image: Long convoys of Iraqi diesel-laden tanker trucks line up along the Tartus-Baniyas highway, via AFP.

Of course, the external powers which have long sought to dominate the region both politically and on the energy front know this full well, which makes it all the more shameful and ironic that mainstream media and government officials had long derided as 'conspiracy theorists' anyone who connected a 'pipeline wars' theme with Washington's covert war on Syria.

Widespread derision was the reaction of MSM punditry when back in 2016 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. penned the following excellent lengthy investigation:

Why the Arabs Don’t Want Us in Syria They don’t hate ‘our freedoms.’ They hate that we’ve betrayed our ideals in their own countries—for oil

Fast-forward to 2026, amid Trump's Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and another conspiracy theory becomes conspiracy fact (as we've been documenting of the great crude transit 'rewiring' efforts to erode Iran's leverage over the Hormuz passage).

On Wednesday, cue a new Bloomberg headline: Syria Set to Emerge as Hormuz-Bypass Option for Iraq's Crude Oil.

The deserts of Western Iraq and Eastern Syria are set to look like a scene out of Max Max, apparently. "Syria is set to provide a route for Iraqi crude exports to avoid the hazardous Strait of Hormuz, with a stream of trucks being lined up to haul oil overland to a port on the Mediterranean Sea," Bloomberg writes.

"The Iraqi government asked Syria to help with the export of crude in addition to existing flows of fuel oil, Yousef Qiblawy, chief executive officer of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Co., said in an interview with Bloomberg News," the report continues.

To some degree, this overland route was already being 'tested' during the latter years of the Syrian proxy war, when US forces occupied Syria's oil and gas fields of Deir Ezzor and Al-Hasaka regions.

Reviving land corridors from Iraq to the Mediterranean:

Hormuz disruption revives land corridors from Iraq to the Mediterranean The Strait of Hormuz handles a massive slice of the world's oil and gas — and with that route under threat, the region is dusting off old alternatives. One proposal gaining attention: a land corridor linking Iraqi oil fields to the Mediterranean via western Iraq and Syria. Iraq is already weighing this against the Turkish Ceyhan route and a possible path through Jordan. Syria, for its part, could reclaim its historic role as a bridge between Iraq and the Mediterranean Sea. Iraqi fuel oil and other petroleum products are reportedly already moving by truck through Syria to Mediterranean ports, then on to Asia and Europe — no Hormuz involved. https://t.co/AWbFJOGcwC

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) September 27, 2026

They had run tanker trucks in the other direction - from Syria into Iraq, siphoning off Syrian oil and its sovereign resources, after President Trump during his first term hailed that the Pentagon would 'secure the oil'.

Read our: Mystery Explosions: Syria's Recovering Gas Network Keeps Getting Sabotaged

As for actual pipeline routes from Iraq to the Mediterranean via Syria being revived, major hurdles remain and its not just the gargantuan cost of reviving the derelict hardware - but there's an obvious security problem in a country that's seen mysterious armed groups constantly bomb Syrian energy infrastructure - both during the Assad years and now under Jolani.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 14:35

SpaceX Credit Risk Hits New High As AI Debt Binge Fears Spook Bondholders

SpaceX's proposed $40 billion chip-collateralized financing for Nvidia AI chips, reported overnight by the Financial Times, has restarted concerns over the pace of its debt-funded expansion, which as we discussed last night, , is starting to flash a dangerous shade of red: despite raising a record $86 billion in its June IPO, Elon Musk's rocket and AI company's growing financing needs are weighing on sentiment, with its 2056 bonds sliding and five-year credit default swaps surging.

After selling $25 billion in bonds shortly after its public listing, SpaceX is now seeking roughly $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt.

We laid out what this means for Musk's company in a note titled "From Record IPO To Record Chip-Collateralized Loan In 16 Weeks: SpaceX Taps Apollo For $40 Billion In SPV Debt." If completed, that would bring issued and proposed borrowing since June to $65 billion.

The market's verdict was immediate: on Wednesday, SpaceX's 2056 bonds fell to a new low of around 84.70 cents on the dollar as of 11:25 a.m. in New York, compared with 98.83 cents on the dollar when the securities were issued in June as part of a $25 billion inaugural senior unsecured notes offering.

Meanwhile, as expected, the proposed borrowing binge sent the company's CDS up as much as 16.2 basis points to about 197.3 basis points Wednesday, the highest on record, and more appropriate for a junk rated company. 

Tony Trzcinka, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management, was quoted by the outlet as saying the concerns are "mainly about how much debt SpaceX is adding and how fast." 

"As a result, the existing bonds have to fall in price now so that their yields stay in line with what the new bonds will likely pay," Trzcinka said. 

Sal Naro, chief investment officer at Coherence Credit Strategies, warned the outlet that "this is an unprecedented debt supply with no real ending in sight," adding, "The world has never seen an infrastructure build like this. This is larger than the railroads because this is global, all at once."

Meanwhile, SPCX stock continues to rise as if nothing bad has happened, soaring 59% since early August. 

That said, SpaceX is just one small part of the bigger picture: recall that Morgan Stanley estimated AI infrastructure will need $1.5 trillion in external financing by 2028. SpaceX's $40 billion is just the latest installment (read our note here). 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 14:25

Hawkish FOMC Minutes Show All 19 Fed Officials Supported Rate Hike, "Most" Assess Another Hike "By Year End Is Appropriate"

The September FOMC minutes struck a distinctly hawkish tone, as all 19 Fed officials backed a rate hike in September, with many supporting the move to protect against the risk of intensifying inflation pressures. A separate group of officials said higher rates were necessary based on their outlook for the economy, signaling greater concern for elevated inflation, according to minutes of the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting released Wednesday. The Committee unanimously raised the fed funds rate 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled that further tightening is likely by year-end.

“Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end,” the minutes said, and also said that “Several participants commented that the underlying momentum in the economy appeared to have increased."

Policymakers remain concerned that inflation is proving sticky. August headline PCE inflation was estimated at 3.8% and core PCE at 3.4%, with higher energy costs, geopolitical tensions, and AI-related investment contributing to price pressures. Participants generally viewed inflation risks as skewed to the upside.

The economy continues to show resilience. GDP growth remained solid, consumer spending held up, and business investment was supported by the ongoing AI buildout. Labor market conditions were viewed as close to full employment, with unemployment at 4.1%.

Several participants noted that AI is boosting both investment and productivity prospects but could also contribute to inflation through stronger demand, rising input costs, and increased financing needs. Market participants likewise cited AI-related borrowing as a factor pushing Treasury yields higher.

Overall, the Committee judged that stronger growth, elevated energy prices, and persistent inflation warranted a more restrictive policy stance, with most members expecting another rate increase before year-end.

Here are the key highlights from the Fed minutes:

• Participants generally emphasized inflation remained elevated while the job market appeared near full employment.
• Participants offered a range of views for why they supported a rate increase.
• Participants generally saw inflation risks skewed to the upside, with some seeing those risks becoming more skewed in recent months.
• Almost all participants saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, while job market risks were broadly balanced.
• Some participants saw AI buildout possibly causing aggregate demand to outpace supply over the medium term, putting upward pressure on inflation.
• The staff economic outlook was stronger than the one prepared for the July meeting.
• Many participants noted that despite the recent climb in long-term Treasury yields, financial conditions appeared supportive of economic growth.
• A few participants observed that the Treasury market had been functioning smoothly, but noted the importance of planning for market stress.
• Changes in real rates contributed to most of the net increase in longer-maturity Treasury yields.
• Nominal yields increased around 35 basis points across the 2- to 10-year segment of the yield curve. Part of the increase reflected the higher expected path of monetary policy and the strength of economic data. Market commentary pointed to geopolitical developments, uncertainty related to the US Treasury's announcement and implementation of the buyback program, and competition for capital from heavy private debt issuance to finance the development of AI infrastructure as also contributing to higher term premiums and Treasury yields

The FOMC was also increasingly vocal on the inflationary impacts of AI:

• "Several participants observed that the rate of price increases in the core goods category also remained elevated, as effects of the AI buildout appeared to increase while the effects of tariff increases waned"
• "Some participants commented that increased energy prices and the ongoing AI buildout were contributing to cost pressures faced by businesses, including higher costs for transportation and input materials."
• "Some participants commented that the AI buildout could cause aggregate demand to outpace aggregate supply over the medium term, putting upward pressure on inflation."
• "Some participants observed that strong demand for skilled workers in sectors related to the ongoing AI buildout had been driving strong wage gains for these workers"
• "Participants noted that the ongoing AI buildout was boosting business investment. Several participants commented that the scale and pace of the AI buildout had continued to surprise to the upside"

The record also revealed a discussion about financial conditions. Many officials commented that despite the recent rise in longer-term Treasury yields, “financial conditions appeared to be supportive of economic growth, with equity prices having risen substantially this year and spreads on corporate bonds having remained narrow.”

Some officials, including three who voted against the FOMC decision to hold steady in July, could dissent again in favor of another increase if the majority votes to leave rates unchanged at the October meeting.
“Several participants stated that they viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive,” the minutes

Chairman Kevin Warsh told reporters following the Sept. 16 decision the move was aimed at removing a “dose of accommodation” as inflation remained stubbornly high. His comments fueled market bets for another increase in October.

The Fed also said that the joint U.S.–Japan intervention to support the yen in late July also directly contributed to dollar depreciation, given the yen's considerable weight in currency indexes. The manager noted that the Desk, acting purely as fiscal agent for the U.S. Treasury, intervened in the currency market using U.S. Treasury funds; the System Open Market Account portfolio was not involved.

The Fed's rate hike prompted criticism from President Trump, who blamed the rate increase on Warsh’s colleagues, whom he claimed were being “very political.” Since the meeting, however, a series of comments from key Fed officials have indicated the central bank may be in no rush to raise rates again.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams said in separate speeches last week they believed the central bank has time to assess the economy before considering another rate increase. Investors promptly reeled in their expectations for a rate hike this month.

Investors are currently pricing in a roughly 20% chance of another quarter-point hike at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting, down from around 70% in the days following the September decision, based on federal funds futures. Yields on two-year Treasuries, seen as the most sensitive to Fed policy, dropped more than 10 basis points in the past week to near 4.8%.

Bloomberg notes that last week’s remarks by Williams and Jefferson don’t mean the Fed won’t adjust policy any further. Officials continue to warn that inflation is too high. The CPI report due Oct. 14 might yet revive calls for a near-term hike.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 14:14

Putin Praises Iran's 'Courage' As US Gloats Over Oil Blockade & 'Zero' Exports

The Trump administration has been busy boasting that it has brought Iran's economy to its knees through the navy enforced oil blockade and through sweeping 'Economic D-Day' sanctions, but in direct contradiction to this, Russia is busy hailing Tehran's 'courage'.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call Wednesday, on the occasion of Putin's birthday, wherein the two leaders pledged to strengthen bilateral cooperation, per readouts from both sides.

Zuma/TASS

Putin pointed to their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty as staying steadfast, despite "current developments and events in the region" - a reference to the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States.

Russia supports these diplomatic efforts, Putin continued, and "Iranian friends can be assured" that Moscow is ready to help, he informed Pezeshkian. And crucially there was this line which is a direct provocation to Washington:

Putin also praised what he called Iran’s "courage" in the face of attacks.

Also, according to Iranian state media, "Putin pointed to the Iranian nation's historic and epic steadfastness in the face of enemy aggression, stating that Iran's courage has been put at the focal attention of many countries across the world."

It must be remembered that US anonymous officials and media have accused Moscow of providing Tehran with targeting support during the height of Epic Fury. China too stands accused of this.

Such Kremlin messaging on Iranian courage is in direct opposition to what's being put out by the White House. For example, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been gloating this week that Iranian crude exports have been taken to near "zero" by the US Navy's ongoing blockade.

On Tuesday, he again mocked the Iranians, questioning what is their oil minister "managing"?

Iran has a new oil minister. Considering Iran has not loaded a single barrel of crude onto a vessel since August 25th, what is the oil minister managing?

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) October 6, 2026

TankerTrackers data has lately indicated that Iranian oil terminals were inactive for crude loadings throughout September, which has resulted in Iran's military ramping up drone attacks on foreign vessels engaged in 'unauthorized' passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

This month alone has already seen at least ten attacks on ships, but which has had surprisingly little impact on oil prices. The mainstream media has also been relatively quiet on these latest attacks.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also been trying to spike the football, even as Iranian attacks on international shipping in the region continue, and after US bases have by and large been forced to be abandoned in Gulf states.

⚡️JUST IN: Secretary of State Rubio states that Iran has Lost Complete Control of the Strait of Hormuz Oil is passing through (around 10 Million Barrels Per Day) the Strait of Hormuz - The IRGC has struck more than 10 ships over the past week but this hasn't deterred the oil tankers - Sources in Iran indicate that the current situation could continue until the US's Midterm Elections (beginning in November)

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) October 7, 2026

Tehran is still saying it would be open to a peace deal, but that it ultimately doesn't trust Trump, and that if the situation of the blockade on its oil persists, it may have to launch 'preemptive attack' on American assets in the region.

"If necessary, we will carry out preemptive operations in the future to deter the enemy from any aggression or attack," an Iranian military spokesman said Wednesday. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 14:10

USDA Investing $180 Million For American Seed Sovereignty

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced a $180 million investment to launch the Seed Sovereignty Initiative for strengthening domestic agricultural security by protecting plant genetic resources.

The USDA will use the funding to sequence the genetics of major crops to "unlock the tremendous potential of the plant genetic resources the United States holds and identify critical gaps," the department said in an Oct. 6 statement. Plant genetic resources can include seeds, plants, and plant parts.

Foreign competitors are acquiring and genetically sequencing plant resources from around the world while the United States is yet to sequence its own plant collections fully, the USDA said. Investment in the Seed Sovereignty Initiative aims to address this gap and reduce the risk of future foreign dependence on plant genetic resources.

The Seed Sovereignty Initiative will funnel investments into USDA's National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS), which houses more than 600,000 samples from more than 16,000 species. The department plans to characterize and sequence several NPGS collections over two years, using cutting-edge tech to identify valuable genetic traits, the USDA said.

The initiative will help in the development of new crop varieties that benefit American farmers and consumers and also help researchers respond faster to new pests and plant diseases, the agency said.

The initiative will ensure continued American leadership in agricultural productivity and innovation, strengthen U.S. food security, make producers independent of seed systems controlled by foreign groups, and preserve a domestic source of seeds and crop traits crucial for agriculture and exports, the initiative's website says.

"Since President Trump returned to office, he has made it clear that we are putting American farmers first. For too long, the future of our crops and our seeds has not been a priority. That changes today, because we cannot afford to depend on foreign adversaries for next year's crop," Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins said in the statement.

"Today's announcement is another example of this administration focusing on the inputs our agriculture industry depends on and ensuring a future where our farmers are the most productive in the world."

The United States has seen large-scale seed commercialization over the past century, with seeds turning from a common good into a commodity, according to a 2024 study published in the journal Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems.

Consolidation in the private seed industry has made farmers increasingly dependent on commodity seeds while reducing crop diversity. Commodity seeds have become crucial for food production, with corporate control of the seed industry tightening, the study said.

At present, the majority of seed supply for almost every major row crop planted in the United States is produced by four companies - Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta Group, and BASF.

Out of these, only Corteva is headquartered in the United States. Bayer and BASF are based in Germany, and Syngenta Group is in Switzerland.

Concern Over China Connection

Syngenta Group has faced scrutiny because of its links to the Chinese Communist Party and the amount of farmland it owns in the United States. Although the company's Syngenta Seeds division has its North American headquarters near Chicago, Syngenta Group is owned by Chinese state-controlled ChemChina.

"Reliance on a small group of suppliers in any strategic sector creates vulnerabilities that are difficult to ignore, and the situation is no different in the case of seed for major field crops," national security lawyer Irina Tsukerman told The Epoch Times.

"From a national security perspective, the reality that much of the country's grain production flows from traits and breeding pipelines managed by a handful of actors is a clear signal that dependence has reached a level that warrants scrutiny."

On July 14, a group of lawmakers introduced the Fair Seeds for Farmers Act to tackle the issue of corporate control over seeds, according to a statement from the office of Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.).

Under the proposed measure, seed companies would be banned from restricting farmers or researchers from experimenting, breeding, propagating, or saving seeds.

"The hyperconsolidation and commodification of seeds has eroded farmers' resilience and diminished the agrobiodiversity of crops cultivated in the US at an alarming rate," Nick Rossi, a policy specialist at the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, said in the statement.

The bill "takes an important step in curtailing corporate abuse of US Patent Law," Rossi said.

The bill has been referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary.

Autumn Spredemann contributed to this report.

* * * psst * * *

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 13:55

Pezeshkian Calls On Iranians To Ration Electricity, 'Stand Up' To US, As Negotiations 'Stalemated'

Saudi Arabian state-owned outlet Al Hadath is reporting what many might consider obvious: Stalemate in mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran, the source reports Wednesday.

US officials are continuing to tell Tehran that there will be "no progress" in negotiations until there's progress on the nuclear file and that Hormuz is no longer a priority after Iran "lost control of it". 

via AFP

And yet, there's been possibly a dozen or more Iranian drone attacks on foreign vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the last eight days.

All of this comes as President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged the Iranian public to 'stand up' against the US and West, as Washington's sweeping sanctions as well as US naval blockade actions against Iranian ports continue to bite.

"We must not allow the production cycle to be damaged. We will reduce the consumption of electricity, gas, gasoline, water and other energy sectors," he said to semi-official Fars news agency.

"The condition for resistance and standing up to the West is for everyone to endure hardship," Pezeshkian added, saying that "if necessary, cultural and sport complexes will be closed in Iran to provide electricity and energy needed for industrial production" - as the US blockade hammers Iran’s economy.

The rial has cratered, and the fallout has begun to severely impact neighboring Iraq and its Tehran-aligned economy and government, as we previously detailed.

Fars also quoted Pezeshkian as saying Wednesday, "Iran is fully prepared to reach a balanced and fair agreement that ensures lasting peace and security in the region."

"Our red line is the national interests and rights of the Iranian people. If the United States adheres to international legal frameworks, reaching an agreement is not out of reach," he added.

There's also this admission (but which could also be interpreted as pushback) from Iranian state media, in the face of Scott Bessent's recent assertions that Iran's crude exports have fallen to near 'Zero':

Iranian media is reporting a 60 percent decrease in oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, saying that the flow of crude oil has faced a significant drop in the last two days, reaching around 3.8 million barrels per day.

The weekly average of oil passing through the Strait is estimated to be about 9.3 million barrels per day, Tasnim news agency said.

The claim comes as an IRGC adviser said that the strait is “fully controlled” by Iran and will remain closed until the US accepts its demands, adding that the volume of oil currently being smuggled out is “very small”.

But ultimately, Iran is admitting it is enduring severe economic hardship amid a heavily sanctioned wartime economy.

There's a battle of narratives over Hormuz and markets as well as mainstream Western media are simply favoring once side while ignoring the claims of the other at this point:

IRAN WAR ANALYSIS: It is VERY obvious now that the Iranians were simply not TRYING to strike vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. 13 vessels have now been struck just in the last 8 days, and most importantly of all, many of these vessels have been completely disabled, set ablaze, or blacked out. This is a disaster.

— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) October 6, 2026

The stalemate looks to endure past the November midterm elections in the US, as even President Trump has seemed to lately suggest this status won't change until after the US vote. He has also signaled a heavy bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic could ensue by November's end.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 12:55

From 3-Year Lows To 3-Year Highs In Nine Months: Mortgage Rates Surge To 7.49% As Bond Rout Hits Main Street

Last December, we wrote that mortgage rates had dipped to 3-year lows. Nine months, one Middle East war and one global bond rout later, they are at 3-year highs.

According to the latest weekly data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped another 19bps to 7.49% in the week ended October 2, the highest since November 2023, and up from 7.30% the week before, which itself was a fresh 3-year high.

The culprit is not exactly a mystery. Mortgage rates track the 10Y Treasury, and the 10Y just had its biggest quarterly jump since 1994, hitting 5.34% last week, the highest since 2002. And with the long end leading the latest leg of the selloff, this morning the 30Y climbed to 5.70%, also the highest since 2002, while the 10Y was trading around 5.32%.

Below we look at why the bond rout has finally landed on Main Street, what it is doing to housing (spoiler: nothing good), and why the sell-side's perennial "yields will fall from here" call is now 0 for 9.

Follow The 10Y (Then Add A War)

As Reuters notes, home borrowing rates are up about 1.4 percentage points since US-Israeli strikes against Iran began in late February, closely tracking the jump in the 10Y yield, which was back above 5.3% on Monday. The drivers are the usual suspects: inflation fears from triple-digit oil (Brent was back above $101 this morning as Iran stepped up attacks on Hormuz tankers), surprisingly resilient growth, a Fed that is now hiking, and a bond market that has to absorb record Treasury supply and the AI debt binge at the same time.

And it's not just a US story. On Monday, we put out this chart showing that global 10Y+ bond yields are now the highest since 2002:

Since then it has only gotten worse: UK 30-year gilt yields hit a 28-year high this morning, while in France, where the OAT-Bund spread is back out to 140bps, European banks are tumbling as the French bond crash reactivates the "doom loop" (something we discussed earlier in "Bonds & Stocks Are Pricing A Fundamentally Different Macro Regime"). And as regular readers know, we've pinned much of the relentless Treasury selling on Japan, which has little reason to stop repatriating when its own long bonds yield near record highs.

Translation: the global bid for duration is gone, and the US homebuyer is the marginal price-taker. Yesterday's subpar 3Y auction priced at the highest yield in 20 years as foreign demand slumped, and today the Treasury tries its luck with $39BN in 10Y paper at 1pm.

"Showings Have Stopped"... And So Have Applications

We have been tracking the slow-motion seizure of the housing market since late May, when refi activity plummeted as mortgage rates hit 9-month highs. By late September, homebuyers were turning to riskier mortgages as rates topped 7%, and last Thursday, after Freddie Mac's 30Y rate posted its biggest weekly jump since October 2022 to 7.28%, real estate agents told us that "showings have stopped".

Today's MBA data confirms it. Mortgage applications fell another 4.2% last week, with refinancing applications dropping sharply. Overall application volume is now the lowest since February 2025, and has collapsed by nearly 50% since January. Or, in the dry words of MBA deputy chief economist Joel Kan, very few homeowners have an incentive to refinance "at these rates", while the jump in borrowing costs has pushed many would-be buyers out of the purchase market altogether.

Some napkin math shows why. On a $400,000, 30-year mortgage, principal and interest at 7.49% comes to roughly $2,794 a month. At the ~6.1% that prevailed before the war, it was about $2,424. That's $370 more every month, or 15%, for the exact same house - and 68% more than the borrower who locked in at the 2021 lows (who, naturally, is not selling).

That last point is the real problem. The lock-in effect, which was finally starting to ease over the summer as inventory approached prepandemic levels, is now back with a vengeance: sellers with 3% mortgages have zero reason to move, and buyers facing 7.5% have every reason to wait. Even BofA's REIT team, in its weekly U.S. REIT Weekly (available to pro subs), cites persistently high mortgage rates and elevated for-sale housing costs as a key reason renters are staying put longer - good news for apartment landlords; first-time buyers might see it differently.

Not that the administration isn't trying. Just last Thursday:

*HASSETT: WE WANT MORTGAGE RATES TO GO DOWN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

Mortgage rates rose 19bps that week. The bond market, it seems, did not get the memo, or more likely got it and sold anyway.

"Rates May Be Biting"

So where do we go from here? According to BofA's rates team led by Mark Cabana, the selloff only ends when it starts to hurt. In his latest Global Rates Weekly, "Start of rates bite" (available to pro subs), Cabana writes that the impact of higher rates is starting to bite broader financial conditions, with spreads widening in OATs, the EU periphery and US high yield, before adding:

"Rates restricting financial conditions is a precondition for the selloff to stop (unless macro data softens first). Central banks are starting to push back but will only be credible if conditions stay tight / tighten further or upcoming data softens."

In other words, the cure for high yields is... a housing market that stops working. Mission, at least partially, accomplished.

Notably, September's selloff was concentrated in the US: BofA calculates the US 2-10Y sector rose 50bps last month, a 2x standard deviation move in the 10Y, as global central banks swung from pricing cuts in Q1 to 100bp+ of hikes in most regions. BofA still expects the Fed to hike 75bps between September and December, and only sees the 10Y ending the year at 5.00%.

Then there's the mortgage-specific part of the equation. As BofA's securitized team led by Chris Flanagan notes in its September returns review (also available to pro subs), Agency MBS delivered a -3.3% total return in September and -1.0% in excess returns versus Treasuries, underperforming even IG corporates (-2.6%). And the bank isn't rushing to buy the dip: it stays "basis-neutral" on agency MBS and would only turn more positive if the current coupon spread, now 120bp, widens to the 125-130bp area.

Put differently, even the professional buyers of mortgage paper want more spread on top of a 10Y that is already at a 24-year high. Which means that unless Treasuries rally hard, the path of least resistance for mortgage rates is even higher.

Strategists: 0 For 9 (And Counting)

Of course, if you ask Wall Street, relief is just around the corner. In a Reuters poll of nearly 60 fixed income strategists conducted October 5-7, the median forecast has the 10Y easing to 5.00% by year-end, 4.90% in six months and 4.75% in a year.

The same strategists have underestimated the 10Y in nine straight monthly polls this year, and got the direction mostly wrong in six of the most recent months. Perhaps sensing this, all but 2 of 30 forecasters surveyed said the 10Y is more likely to overshoot their forecast than undershoot it near term, which is a remarkably candid way of saying "we have no idea, but probably higher."

The more honest take came from BofA's own US rates strategist Meghan Swiber, who told Reuters rates have entered "a different regime" from anything since the GFC, and that a Fed which fails to tighten financial conditions will pay for it through higher long-term rates.

Midterm Math

All of this lands four weeks before the November 3 midterms. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday found the cost of living is the top issue on voters' minds, which helps explain why Trump's approval rating sits at a record low 32%. With PCE inflation at 3.4% in August and the Fed signaling another hike by year-end after September's increase, the White House is running out of levers: today Trump said he is considering suspending the federal gas tax. Expect the "lower mortgage rates" talking points to get louder. Expect mortgage rates to ignore them.

Bottom Line

BofA's Cabana frames the endgame neatly: the selloff stops when rates restrict financial conditions, or when the data rolls over first. In housing, that test is already being passed with flying colors: applications are down by half this year, showings have stopped, and refis have all but vanished.

The question is whether the bond market cares, after all it is financing AI hopes and dreams that may (perhaps) materialize sometime in the 2030s with an ROIC that isn't negative triple digits. In other words, the runway for said hopes and dream is long and much more debt will flow before it reverses. Until then, however, broader rates will keep rising and rising, as the US now directly competes with data centers (most of which will never be plugged into a grid that simply can not support that kind of electricity demand) for funding.

With oil back above $100, the Fed hiking, Japan repatriating, France going all PIIGS on the OAT market and Treasury supply only going one way, we think the more likely outcome is that 7.49% is just another waypoint, and hardly a peak - and that the strategists' "5% by year-end" joins the previous eight forecasts in the bin.

Then again, stocks closed at a record high yesterday, so maybe everything is fine... just don't try to buy a house.

Much more in the full BofA Global Rates Weekly "Start of rates bite", the Securitized Products "September 2026 returns" review and the U.S. REIT Weekly, all available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 12:54

One-Year Inflation Expectations Jump To 3 Year HIgh: NY Fed Survey

Americans' expectations for inflation over the near-tern jumped last month while their sentiment toward the labor market improved, the latest NY Fed Federal survey of consumer expectations showed on Wednesday.

Consumers’ estimates for inflation one-year ahead rose to a median 3.9% in September, up from 3.6% the prior month, reaching the highest level since May of 2023. At the same time, inflation expectations increased 0.1% to 3.3% at three-year horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at five-year horizon.

 Over the next year consumers expect gasoline prices to rise 4.8%; food prices to rise 5.5%; medical costs to rise 9.2%; the price of a college education to rise 7.5%; rent prices to rise 6.8%

While the inflation outlook deteriorated, views on the labor market improved as workers saw a lower probability of losing their jobs and higher odds of voluntarily quitting, the New York Fed’s monthly consumer expectations survey showed. The proportion of respondents expecting the overall unemployment rate to rise in the next year fell fractionally to around 44%. Their perceived chances of finding a new role in the next three months if they lost their current job increased to 46%. 

Consumers’ expectations of losing their jobs in the next year fell, with the outlook improving the most for workers between 40 and 60 years old and with annual household incomes above $100,000. Chances of leaving a post voluntarily also rose, especially among workers without a bachelor’s degree and above 40 years old.

Released less than a month away from the November mid-term elections, the New York Fed data is the latest survey highlighting Americans’ persistent pessimism around an economy that’s according to government data is expanding, if only for data centers and affiliated workers and billionaires. Separate data released in recent weeks showed that consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low in September and the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained historically low.

That's the good news: the bad news is that the survey also found that year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell back to 12-month average of 2.6%. At the same time, the survey showed consumers’ perceptions of their own finances worsened for the second straight month. Around 42% of households said their situation is much or somewhat worse than a year ago, while around 18% said it had improved. More households also said they expected their financial outcomes to worsen in the year ahead, and more consumers now say it’s harder to get credit than it was a year ago. 

With inflation expected to jump, consumers are finding ways to keep their wallets open. Expected spending growth for the year ahead rose to the highest since May 2023, up to 5.5%, an increase that was broad-based across age and education groups. Consumers continue to expect their spending growth to outpace their income growth. At the same time, perceived chances of missing a debt payment over the next three months fell slightly to 12%. 

A smaller percentage of consumers, 12.20% vs 13.16% in the prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payments over the next three months

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/07/2026 - 12:25