Zero Hedge

US Services Surveys Plunge... And Soar In July As Prices Paid Spike

US Services Surveys Plunge... And Soar In July As Prices Paid Spike

Following the significant weakness exhibited by the Manufacturing surveys (and worsening 'hard' data), Services data 

  • S&P Global US Services PMI ROSE from 52.9 to 55.7 in July - the highest since Dec 2024

  • ISM Services PMI FELL from 50.8 to 50.1 (below expectations) and near the lowest since June 2024

Just ridiculous...

Under the hood the two surveys agreed on weakness in the labor market and soaring inflation.

The employment index dropped to 46.4, contracting for the fourth time in five months and marking one of the lowest readings since the pandemic.

The group's measure of prices paid for materials and services, meanwhile, climbed to 69.9 -- the highest since October 2022.

“A strong rise in service sector business activity helped offset a slowdown in the manufacturing sector in July, signaling encouragingly robust economic growth at the start of the third quarter," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence

"While GDP has risen at an average 1.25% pace over the first half of 2025, July’s PMI is indicative of growth doubling to about 2.5%."

“July’s expansion was driven by surging demand in the tech sector alongside rising financial services activity, the latter linked to improving financial conditions fueled in turn by recent stock market gains.

However, falling exports of services, which includes spending in the US by tourists, acted as a drag on growth alongside subdued demand from consumers more broadly."

Spot the odd one out...

“The recent strengthening of demand has led to rising backlogs of work in the service sector, encouraging firms to take on staff again," Williamson added:

“There was some caution seen in terms of hiring and expansion, however, linked to sharply rising costs, often attributed to tariffs, as well as reduced optimism about future prospects.

Alongside a drop in optimism in the manufacturing sector, the reduced confidence in the service sector contributed to one of the gloomiest outlooks seen over the past three years, hinting at some downside risks to growth in the coming months.”

So once again, take your pick... choose your own adventure?

When will Trump fire the head of the ISM?!

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 10:07

Trump Administration To Fast-Track Lunar Nuclear Reactor

Trump Administration To Fast-Track Lunar Nuclear Reactor

With an eye on beating Russia and China to the punch, the Trump administration is about to announce plans to fast-track the building of a nuclear fission reactor on the moon. NASA administrator Sean Duffy, who is also Transportation Secretary, is expected to announce the expedited program this week, according to documents obtained by Politico. 

“To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly,” wrote Duffy in a directive issued Thursday. 

A Chinese National Space Agency depiction of the planned International Lunar Research Station -- action figures sold separately (CNSA)

In that memorandum, Duffy points to a joint Russian-Chinese plan to build a lunar nuclear reactor of their own. In May, the countries signed a memorandum of cooperation by which they will collaborate on a reactor to power the planned International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), which they hope to have operational by 2036. Led by the Chinese, but part of a collaboration with many other countries including Venezuela, Belarus, South Africa, Pakistan, Egypt and Kazakhstan, the facility is intended to conduct scientific research within a 62-mile radius of the lunar south pole. Other outposts are to follow over the following decades.

If China and Russia beat the United States in establishing their station, they “could potentially declare a keep-out zone," Duffy warned.  The rival US lunar program is called Artemis. Its first major milestone is supposed to return American astronauts to the moon in 2027, but there's little chance of hitting that target, as critical components are still in development. China is working to put an astronaut on the moon by 2030.  

America is winning the all-important race to produce the superior artist rendering (NASA image)

Micro-nuclear reactors are considered essential to a sustained presence on the moon because lunar days and lunar nights last for two weeks each, rendering solar panels and batteries insufficient. Per Duffy's directive, NASA has 60 days to name a leader of the nuclear-reactor project and gather industry perspectives. The overarching goal:  launching a nuclear reactor with at least 100 kilowatts of generation capacity by late 2029.

Earlier NASA design work had a lesser, 40-kilowatt reactor tipping the scales at more than five metric tons. The contracted designers for that effort -- at about an initial $5 million apiece -- were Lockheed Martin, Westinghouse and IX, a joint venture of Intuitive Machines and X-Energy. In May, Rolls-Royce said it was soliciting space-industry partners to develop a micro-nuclear reactor suitable for Artemis. 

Last year, the Chinese notched a scientific victory, retrieving the first soil and rock samples from the far side of the moon and returning them to Earth. The Chang'e-6 craft used a drill and scoop to mine more than four pounds of material from the moon's deepest crater. Their study of the material raised the possibility that the far side may be significantly drier than the near side, but the single sample isn't conclusive.   

A second new Duffy directive orders an accelerated project to replace the fading International Space Station (ISS), awarding contracts to at least two companies within six months of NASA issuing a request for proposals. The ISS is scheduled for decommissioning at the end of 2030, after which it will be sent into a controlled de-orbit that should see most of it burned up, with the remaining hunks of glowing-hot metal landing in a hopefully-empty part of the Pacific Ocean. If it's not immediately replaced, China would have the only operational space station. Companies who've pursued space station business include Axiom Space, Vast and Blue Origin, Politico reports.  

There's no indication yet of how much these accelerated space ambitions will set us back. Sure, America has more than $150 trillion of debt and unfunded liabilities, but why not throw a lunar nuclear reactor on the credit card? We deserve it. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 09:10

Trump Administration To Fast-Track Lunar Nuclear Reactor

Trump Administration To Fast-Track Lunar Nuclear Reactor

With an eye on beating Russia and China to the punch, the Trump administration is about to announce plans to fast-track the building of a nuclear fission reactor on the moon. NASA administrator Sean Duffy, who is also Transportation Secretary, is expected to announce the expedited program this week, according to documents obtained by Politico. 

“To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly,” wrote Duffy in a directive issued Thursday. 

A Chinese National Space Agency depiction of the planned International Lunar Research Station -- action figures sold separately (CNSA)

In that memorandum, Duffy points to a joint Russian-Chinese plan to build a lunar nuclear reactor of their own. In May, the countries signed a memorandum of cooperation by which they will collaborate on a reactor to power the planned International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), which they hope to have operational by 2036. Led by the Chinese, but part of a collaboration with many other countries including Venezuela, Belarus, South Africa, Pakistan, Egypt and Kazakhstan, the facility is intended to conduct scientific research within a 62-mile radius of the lunar south pole. Other outposts are to follow over the following decades.

If China and Russia beat the United States in establishing their station, they “could potentially declare a keep-out zone," Duffy warned.  The rival US lunar program is called Artemis. Its first major milestone is supposed to return American astronauts to the moon in 2027, but there's little chance of hitting that target, as critical components are still in development. China is working to put an astronaut on the moon by 2030.  

America is winning the all-important race to produce the superior artist rendering (NASA image)

Micro-nuclear reactors are considered essential to a sustained presence on the moon because lunar days and lunar nights last for two weeks each, rendering solar panels and batteries insufficient. Per Duffy's directive, NASA has 60 days to name a leader of the nuclear-reactor project and gather industry perspectives. The overarching goal:  launching a nuclear reactor with at least 100 kilowatts of generation capacity by late 2029.

Earlier NASA design work had a lesser, 40-kilowatt reactor tipping the scales at more than five metric tons. The contracted designers for that effort -- at about an initial $5 million apiece -- were Lockheed Martin, Westinghouse and IX, a joint venture of Intuitive Machines and X-Energy. In May, Rolls-Royce said it was soliciting space-industry partners to develop a micro-nuclear reactor suitable for Artemis. 

Last year, the Chinese notched a scientific victory, retrieving the first soil and rock samples from the far side of the moon and returning them to Earth. The Chang'e-6 craft used a drill and scoop to mine more than four pounds of material from the moon's deepest crater. Their study of the material raised the possibility that the far side may be significantly drier than the near side, but the single sample isn't conclusive.   

A second new Duffy directive orders an accelerated project to replace the fading International Space Station (ISS), awarding contracts to at least two companies within six months of NASA issuing a request for proposals. The ISS is scheduled for decommissioning at the end of 2030, after which it will be sent into a controlled de-orbit that should see most of it burned up, with the remaining hunks of glowing-hot metal landing in a hopefully-empty part of the Pacific Ocean. If it's not immediately replaced, China would have the only operational space station. Companies who've pursued space station business include Axiom Space, Vast and Blue Origin, Politico reports.  

There's no indication yet of how much these accelerated space ambitions will set us back. Sure, America has more than $150 trillion of debt and unfunded liabilities, but why not throw a lunar nuclear reactor on the credit card? We deserve it. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 09:10

DOJ Ends 44-Year-Old Race-Based Hiring Decree

DOJ Ends 44-Year-Old Race-Based Hiring Decree

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on Aug. 4 that it has ended a decree initiated more than 44 years ago, which imposed across the federal government hiring practices related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) theories.

In a court filing on Aug. 1, the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division stated that it will eliminate a 1981 decree issued under the Luevano v. Ezell case, which was brought by minority job applicants who alleged discrimination in 1979.

The DOJ said on Aug. 4 that the decree had “limited the hiring practices of the federal government based on flawed and outdated theories of diversity, equity, and inclusion,” and that it also “imposed draconian test review and implementation procedures” on the Office of Personnel Management (OPM).

“For over four decades, this decree has hampered the federal government from hiring the top talent of our nation,” Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon said in a statement. “Today, the Justice Department removed that barrier and reopened federal employment opportunities based on merit—not race.”

The 1981 consent decree had the federal government agreeing to eliminate what was known as the Professional and Administrative Career Examination, or PACE, assessment tool and create two special hiring mandates, the Outstanding Scholar and Bilingual/Bicultural programs.

The government had agreed that PACE violated a portion of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, according to an OPM memorandum issued in 2007.

“These programs were to be used where traditional competitive examining procedures produced adverse impact to try to help improve diversity in the occupations covered by the decree,” the memo said.

The decision from the DOJ comes days after the department put out new guidelines for entities or individuals receiving federal funding, saying they cannot be involved in DEI programs.

In a statement on July 31, the DOJ said recipients may not engage in “unlawful discrimination” by violating federal antidiscrimination laws and regulations that “apply to programs or initiatives that involve discriminatory practices, including those labeled” as DEI programs.

“Entities that receive federal funds, like all other entities subject to federal antidiscrimination laws, must ensure that their programs and activities comply with federal law and do not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, or other protected characteristics—no matter the program’s labels, objectives, or intentions,” the DOJ statement reads.

Recipients of federal funds range from schools, colleges, and universities to nonprofit organizations and private firms that are government contractors. The DOJ released the memo publicly on July 29.

Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has issued multiple executive orders targeting DEI or similar frameworks, saying that such policies are discriminatory, diminish merit-based systems, or create wasteful government spending.

Under the orders, the Trump administration has eliminated DEI-related programs within the government and dismissed a number of workers who were involved in those initiatives. The administration has faced some legal challenges.

Some private companies rolled back such initiatives in recent months, in some cases even before Trump took office.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 08:50

DOJ Ends 44-Year-Old Race-Based Hiring Decree

DOJ Ends 44-Year-Old Race-Based Hiring Decree

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on Aug. 4 that it has ended a decree initiated more than 44 years ago, which imposed across the federal government hiring practices related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) theories.

In a court filing on Aug. 1, the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division stated that it will eliminate a 1981 decree issued under the Luevano v. Ezell case, which was brought by minority job applicants who alleged discrimination in 1979.

The DOJ said on Aug. 4 that the decree had “limited the hiring practices of the federal government based on flawed and outdated theories of diversity, equity, and inclusion,” and that it also “imposed draconian test review and implementation procedures” on the Office of Personnel Management (OPM).

“For over four decades, this decree has hampered the federal government from hiring the top talent of our nation,” Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon said in a statement. “Today, the Justice Department removed that barrier and reopened federal employment opportunities based on merit—not race.”

The 1981 consent decree had the federal government agreeing to eliminate what was known as the Professional and Administrative Career Examination, or PACE, assessment tool and create two special hiring mandates, the Outstanding Scholar and Bilingual/Bicultural programs.

The government had agreed that PACE violated a portion of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, according to an OPM memorandum issued in 2007.

“These programs were to be used where traditional competitive examining procedures produced adverse impact to try to help improve diversity in the occupations covered by the decree,” the memo said.

The decision from the DOJ comes days after the department put out new guidelines for entities or individuals receiving federal funding, saying they cannot be involved in DEI programs.

In a statement on July 31, the DOJ said recipients may not engage in “unlawful discrimination” by violating federal antidiscrimination laws and regulations that “apply to programs or initiatives that involve discriminatory practices, including those labeled” as DEI programs.

“Entities that receive federal funds, like all other entities subject to federal antidiscrimination laws, must ensure that their programs and activities comply with federal law and do not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, or other protected characteristics—no matter the program’s labels, objectives, or intentions,” the DOJ statement reads.

Recipients of federal funds range from schools, colleges, and universities to nonprofit organizations and private firms that are government contractors. The DOJ released the memo publicly on July 29.

Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has issued multiple executive orders targeting DEI or similar frameworks, saying that such policies are discriminatory, diminish merit-based systems, or create wasteful government spending.

Under the orders, the Trump administration has eliminated DEI-related programs within the government and dismissed a number of workers who were involved in those initiatives. The administration has faced some legal challenges.

Some private companies rolled back such initiatives in recent months, in some cases even before Trump took office.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 08:50

DOJ Ends 44-Year-Old Race-Based Hiring Decree

DOJ Ends 44-Year-Old Race-Based Hiring Decree

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on Aug. 4 that it has ended a decree initiated more than 44 years ago, which imposed across the federal government hiring practices related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) theories.

In a court filing on Aug. 1, the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division stated that it will eliminate a 1981 decree issued under the Luevano v. Ezell case, which was brought by minority job applicants who alleged discrimination in 1979.

The DOJ said on Aug. 4 that the decree had “limited the hiring practices of the federal government based on flawed and outdated theories of diversity, equity, and inclusion,” and that it also “imposed draconian test review and implementation procedures” on the Office of Personnel Management (OPM).

“For over four decades, this decree has hampered the federal government from hiring the top talent of our nation,” Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon said in a statement. “Today, the Justice Department removed that barrier and reopened federal employment opportunities based on merit—not race.”

The 1981 consent decree had the federal government agreeing to eliminate what was known as the Professional and Administrative Career Examination, or PACE, assessment tool and create two special hiring mandates, the Outstanding Scholar and Bilingual/Bicultural programs.

The government had agreed that PACE violated a portion of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, according to an OPM memorandum issued in 2007.

“These programs were to be used where traditional competitive examining procedures produced adverse impact to try to help improve diversity in the occupations covered by the decree,” the memo said.

The decision from the DOJ comes days after the department put out new guidelines for entities or individuals receiving federal funding, saying they cannot be involved in DEI programs.

In a statement on July 31, the DOJ said recipients may not engage in “unlawful discrimination” by violating federal antidiscrimination laws and regulations that “apply to programs or initiatives that involve discriminatory practices, including those labeled” as DEI programs.

“Entities that receive federal funds, like all other entities subject to federal antidiscrimination laws, must ensure that their programs and activities comply with federal law and do not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, or other protected characteristics—no matter the program’s labels, objectives, or intentions,” the DOJ statement reads.

Recipients of federal funds range from schools, colleges, and universities to nonprofit organizations and private firms that are government contractors. The DOJ released the memo publicly on July 29.

Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has issued multiple executive orders targeting DEI or similar frameworks, saying that such policies are discriminatory, diminish merit-based systems, or create wasteful government spending.

Under the orders, the Trump administration has eliminated DEI-related programs within the government and dismissed a number of workers who were involved in those initiatives. The administration has faced some legal challenges.

Some private companies rolled back such initiatives in recent months, in some cases even before Trump took office.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 08:50

US Trade Deficit Shrinks To 2-Year Lows

US Trade Deficit Shrinks To 2-Year Lows

The US trade deficit narrowed in June to the tightest since September 2023 as companies scaled back on imports after a massive tariff-front-running surge earlier in the year.

The goods and services trade gap shrank 16% from the prior month to $60.2 billion (slightly better - smaller - than the $61 billion expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

The value of imports fell 3.7% MoM while exports contracted by 0.5% MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

Total imports fell to their lowest since March 2024 while exports dropped to their lowest since January 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold imports plunged to their lowest since 2019...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that China trade has been wild!!

  • *US JUNE GOODS EXPORTS TO CHINA RISE 45.4% M/M

  • *US JUNE GOODS IMPORTS FROM CHINA FALL 6.9% M/M

Which together make for the smallest trade deficit with China since February 2004...

As a reminder, these figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 08:40

Futures Rise Again Because Why Not

Futures Rise Again Because Why Not

Risk is mostly higher again this morning, last Friday's selloff long forgotten, with equity futures and macro credit opening stronger while the yield curve is bear flattening as rates sell off across the curve, and the USD is higher. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3%, led by small caps, pointing to further squeeze potential from shorts put on as recently as Friday; Nasdaq futures gained 0.4% as Palantir’s blowout earnings beat and commentary added more fuel to the AI trade. Pre-market, semis are standing out with Mag7 names higher; Industrials are leading Cyclicals over Defensives. Staples are in the red as the market continues to buy most dips/anything AI related along with squeezing shorts (GS Most Short Rolling +3.9% yday). Trade tensions ratchet higher as geopolitics enter the debate. According to Goldman, along with rising rate-cut bets, there are enough positive drivers to outweigh lingering concerns about tariffs, with India becoming the latest target in Trump’s trade war. Overnight, Fed non-voter Daly said that she would "lean to thinking that every meeting going forward is a live meeting" given the softness in the labor market and no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation. On the trade front, Swiss President Keller-Sutter and other Swiss officials, in addition to Japan's trade chief, will travel to the US for separate trade talks. Looking ahead today, the President will speak on CNBC "Squawk Box" at 8am ET. Data wise, we have trade balance, and ISM services. We got better S&P Global Services PMIs out of China (52.6 vs cons 50.4) and Japan (53.6 vs cons 53.5) while Europe was more mixed as UK, Germany, Spain beat but France and Italy missed. There are no scheduled Fed speakers. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Amazon +0.5%, Tesla +0.4%, Nvidia +0.6%, Microsoft +0.5%, Apple +0.4%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%). Here are the other notable premarket movers: 

  • Agilon Health (AGL) sinks 33% after the company, which runs a platform for primary-care physicians treating Medicare patients, suspended its 2025 guidance and said CEO Steven Sell has stepped down.
  • Ameresco (AMRC) climbs 21% after the electric energy company reported second-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate as business in Europe drove growth.
  • Caterpillar (CAT) falls 3% after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly profit as the cost of tariffs and slightly lower prices eroded margins for the company’s iconic yellow diggers and bulldozers.
  • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) slumps 13% after the telehealth company reported second-quarter revenue that disappointed, with analysts noting weak sales trends for its weight-loss drugs.
  • Inspire Medical (INSP) tumbles 28% after the medical-device maker cut its revenue guidance for the full year and said the US commercial launch for its Inspire V system is going slower than expected. The news spurred at least four analysts downgrades.
  • Kyndryl (KD) falls 8% after the IT firm reported a 2.6% drop in sales on constant currency terms, missing analyst estimates. That marked a slowdown versus the 1% growth that the company reported a quarter earlier.
  • MercadoLibre (MELI) drops 5.5% after the e-commerce firm posted earnings that missed estimates, as it ramps up marketing spending to recruit more users.
  • Oddity Tech (ODD) falls 7% after the consumer technology company posted second-quarter results that failed to meet investors’ high hopes.
  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR) rises 6% after reporting a 48% increase in revenue for the second quarter, citing the “astonishing impact” of artificial intelligence technology on its business.
  • Pfizer Inc (PFE) shares jumped more than 3% in premarket trading after the drugmaker beat analysts’ estimates for revenue and raised it earnings guidance.
  • ThredUp (TDUP) rallies 12% after the clothing exchange and recycling company forecast revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) falls 13% after the biotech firm said it won’t advance Journavx to a phase-3 trial, as the FDA doesn’t see a path forward for broad use of the drug to treat peripheral neuropathic pain. Another experimental drug, dubbed VX-993, failed a phase-2 trial for treating acute pain.
  • Vimeo (VMEO) rises 15% after the video software company raised its 2025 forecast for adjusted Ebitda.
  • Zoetis (ZTS) climbs 7% after the animal-health firm boosted its adjusted profit and revenue guidance for the full year, following better-than-expected results for the second quarter.

Traders are increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts after Friday’s weak jobs report, which dragged down stocks and sent bond prices sharply higher. Equities have rebounded from their April lows, driven by growing conviction that corporate America can absorb the impact from tariffs and that the Fed will step in to stave off a recession.

“It seems like this is a bull market that you just can’t keep down for especially long, even if my conviction in the bull case has been shaken somewhat,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “It seems that all the equity bulls needed was a break over the weekend to think up a reason as to why they should be buying the dip.”

Fed San Francisco President Mary Daly said the time is nearing for rate cuts given mounting evidence that the job market is softening and there are no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation, Reuters reported. Money markets are pricing in a more-than-80% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut next month, and a one-in-three probability of another by year-end.

Still, a growing number of strategists at some of Wall Street’s biggest firms is warning clients to prepare for a pullback as sky-high equity valuations slam into souring economic data. On Monday, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and Evercore ISI all cautioned that the S&P 500 Index is due for a near-term drop in the weeks and months ahead. The predictions come after a furious rally from April’s lows that propelled the gauge to levels it has never seen before.

"The question is whether bad news is bad news (economy slowing down) or good news (Fed moving toward rate cuts),” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist at Jefferies. “A modest weakening of the economy would be good news as it should be more easing from the Fed. However, a sustained and sharp rise in unemployment rates would be a negative as it would raise concerns over growth and earnings.”

Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter and Economy Minister Guy Parmelin will fly to the US on Tuesday to present a more attractive trade offer in a bid to lower a 39% tariff imposed by Washington. The country’s benchmark stock index rose.

“There’s a lot of TACO thinking,” said Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, using the acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” “People have got used to the idea that every time a deadline comes on tariffs, it will be either delayed or diminished in some fashion. And to date, that’s been the right call.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.3%, boosted by optimism over a September interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve and strong earnings from BP and Diageo, among the day’s biggest gainers alongside DHL and Infineon. Naturgy is one of the biggest decliners after placing shares at a discount and Fresenius Medical Care falls following earnings. Swiss stocks also gain as traders appear willing to look past the threat of a 39% tariff on exports to America. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • Smith & Nephew shares gain as much as 17%, the most since November 2020, after first-half earnings blew past estimates and the UK medical-device maker announced a $500 million buyback
  • Diageo gains as much as 7% after the UK spirits maker reported results that included an increase in organic volume, beating estimates for a small decline. Analysts also took positives from better-than-expected overall earnings
  • Deutsche Post gains as much 5.3%, the most since April, after the German logistics giant posted a strong second-quarter earnings beat against somewhat muted expectations, with analysts citing its cost control as a key positive
  • Infineon gains as much as 5% after the German semiconductor maker posted reassuring earnings which were in line with expectations, analysts say. It shows that the firm is executing well in a difficult macroeconomic environment
  • Hugo Boss shares gain as much as 4.3% after the luxury branded clothes retailer reported second-quarter Ebit that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts at RBC note strong cost control even as the outlook remains challenging
  • Rotork shares rise as much as 5.8% after the maker of mission-critical flow control systems and instruments reported results that met expectations. The update was accompanied by good order growth, analysts say
  • Interroll shares rise as much as 6.5% after analysts at Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy, saying “the tide is turning” in the warehouse automation sector. The analysts also set a new Street-high price target on Kardex
  • Gerresheimer shares gain as much as 4.8% after the German cosmetics and medical-packaging maker said it’s planning to sell its moulded glass business as part of an effort to focus on pharma and biotech customers
  • Naturgy falls as much as 8.2%, making it the worst performing stock on Spain’s IBEX-35, after a share placement at a discount; company says sale is to improve liquidity and facilitate inclusion in main stock market indexes
  • Fresenius Medical Care shares drop as much as 7% to the lowest since April after the German provider of dialysis care and equipment reported flat growth for US same-market treatment in the second quarter
  • Continental shares fall as much as 2.8% after the German firm reported adjusted Ebit for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate, with brokers citing tariff and FX-led tire division weakness
  • Oerlikon declines as much as 14%, the most in four months, after the Swiss industrial technology company lowered its full-year guidance. Vontobel cut its price target and estimates to reflect the continued tough business environment
  • Domino’s Pizza slumps as much as 20%, with the stock dropping to its lowest since Oct. 2014, as the firm cut its full-year guidance. Analysts note a continued tough trading environment and the lower target for new openings

The stock market is meting out the harshest punishment in decades to companies that fall short of earnings estimates in Europe this quarter, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, helped by a jump in technology shares, as risk sentiment rebounded amid increasing bets on easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%. TSMC, Tencent and SoftBank were among the biggest boosts, with sentiment aided by gains in US tech megacaps Monday. Major equity gauges rose more than 1% in South Korea, Taiwan and Australia, while Vietnam’s benchmark jumped as much as 3.7% before paring the advance. Momentum is returning to Asian markets this week after Friday’s tepid US jobs data prompted investors to bake in a September Fed cut. Meanwhile, Indian stocks dipped slightly after US President Donald Trump said he would “substantially” raise tariffs on the South Asian nation’s exports over its purchases of Russian oil.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% each.

  • USD/JPY +0.1% to 147.60 
  • EUR/USD -01% at 1.1536 
  • GBP/USD little changed at 1.3292 

In rates, Treasuries decline in the early US session as investors set up for the start of this week’s Treasury auctions. US yields cheaper by 3bp to 1bp across the curve in a bear flattening move, as front-end leads losses ahead of $58 billion 3-year note sale. US 10-year yields trade around 4.215%, higher by 2.5bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 0.5bp and 1.5bp in the sector following debt sales out of both Germany and UK. 

In commodities, oil extended declines as investors weighed the impact of risks to Russian supplies, with US President Donald Trump stepping up his threat to penalize India for buying Moscow’s crude. Oil prices fall for a fourth day, with WTI crude futures down 1.2% near $65.50 a barrel. Spot gold also drops $10 to around $3,363/oz.

Looking ahead today, the President speaks on CNBC "Squawk Box" at 8am ET. Data wise, we have trade balance, and ISM services. We got better S&P Global Services PMIs out of China (52.6 vs cons 50.4) and Japan (53.6 vs cons 53.5) while Europe was more mixed as UK, Germany, Spain beat but France and Italy missed. There are no scheduled Fed speakers. 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.3%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%,
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
  • DAX +0.4%
  • CAC 40 +0.1%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.21%
  • VIX -0.1 points at 17.44
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1212.32
  • euro -0.2% at $1.1543
  • WTI crude -1% at $65.61/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the arrest of Democratic lawmakers who left the state to block a vote on new congressional maps, saying "Texas House Democrats abandoned their duty to Texans".
  • White House is preparing an executive order that would fine banks for dropping customers for political reasons: WSJ.
  • Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Monday said that given mounting evidence that the U.S. job market is softening and no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation, the time is nearing for interest rate cuts and that we may need more than two cuts this year. RTRS
  • A private gauge of China’s services sector showed activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than a year in July, as demand improved during the summer travel rush. Caixin services PMI for Jul comes in very strong at 52.6, up from 50.6 in June and above the consensus forecast of 50.4. WSJ
  • Taiwan prosecutors arrested six people suspected of stealing trade secrets from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: Nikkei
  • Japan’s trade chief heads to the US to push for a promised car tariff cut. BBG
  • Japan’s 10-year auction drew weak demand, which signals discontent at BOJ’s delay in rate hikes. Meanwhile, board members said cutting back the BOJ’s buying of JGBs too quickly might have an unforeseen impact on markets, June meeting minutes showed. BBG
  • Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter and Economy Minister Guy Parmelin will fly to the US on Tuesday in order to present a more attractive trade offer in a bid to lower the 39% tariff Washington put on Switzerland. BBG
  • When the House and Senate return from their month-long August recess, lawmakers will have just four weeks to avert a government shutdown — and some kind of kick-the-can funding patch is all but guaranteed. Politico
  • The White House may issue an executive order as soon as this week, penalizing banks for dropping customers over political views amid perceived discrimination against conservatives and crypto companies. BBG
  • Palantir shares gained premarket (PLTR +6.5% pre) after it reported a 48% jump in revenue last quarter, citing the “astonishing impact” of AI. The stock has surged more than 500% over the past year. BBG
  • The US is exploring ways to equip AI chips with better location-tracking capabilities, as it tries to stop smuggling and the flow of semiconductors made by the likes of Nvidia to China. BBG
  • Pfizer raised its profit forecast for the year with the drugmaker’s ongoing cost cuts helping to make up for a lack of sales growth: BBG
  • S&P 500 year/year EPS growth is tracking at 9% so far for 2Q. The bottom-up consensus of analyst estimates expected 4% growth at the start of the earnings season. Both revenues and margins have contributed the positive earnings surprise, with the average earnings surprise tracking at +8% and the average sales surprise tracking at +3%. Goldman

Trade/Tariffs

  • EU official says already seeing implementation of EU-US framework trade deal, says in the US executive order, seeing all-including tariff rate of 15%. Means most favored nation rate is included within the US 15% rate. 15% rate on section 232 such as Pharma will kick in once US investigation is complete. 15% rate applies on cars. Steel discussions taking longer, need to discuss volumes. Talks are "pretty advanced" on a deal. Joint statement "pretty much ready"; "waiting for US to get back to us". Cannot say when statement will be released. The joint statement is not legally binding (reiteration). Alternative to a US deal would be an escalation of tariffs.
  • EU Trade Chief Sefcovic says he is in contact with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer; talks continue in a "constructive spirit".
  • US is exploring better location trackers for AI chips to curtail flows to China, according to Bloomberg.
  • Canada said Canadian ministers Anand and Champagne are to travel to Mexico this week.
  • Brazil's Supreme Court Justice ordered a house arrest of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, while the US State Department later condemned the order imposing house arrest on Bolsonaro and said it will hold accountable all those aiding and abetting sanctioned conduct.
  • Russian Kremlin, on US pressure against India, says that the US' attempt to stop nations from trading with Russia is illegal.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the rally on Wall St where the major indices clawed back post-NFP losses amid rate cut hopes. ASX 200 ascended with every sector in the green and outperformance in real estate, tech, and consumer discretionary. Nikkei 225 took impetus from global peers and shrugged off a firmer currency with earnings releases remaining a driver for individual stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately kept afloat after the latest S&P Global PMI figures which showed a strong acceleration in Services PMI, while Composite PMI cooled but remained in expansionary territory.

Top Asian News

  • BoJ Minutes from the June Meeting stated many members said inflation is somewhat overshooting forecasts, but must scrutinise economic developments due to downside risk to growth from US tariff policy and members shared the view that the BoJ is expected to continue raising the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast. Furthermore, one member said must support economy with current rate level as underlying inflation likely to stagnate temporarily and a member said the rate hike phase may be on pause for time being, but the BoJ must respond nimbly and resume hiking rates depending on US policy development.
  • Japanese Cabinet Office lowered its FY25 GDP forecast amid the impact of the US tariff policy, according to Nikkei.
  • Foxconn (2317 TT) July revenue +7.25% Y/Y (vs. +10.09% Y/Y in June).
  • China's Auto Industry CPCA revises up 2025 car sales forecast by 300k units to 24.35mln units; revises up China car exports forecast by 160k to 5.46mln units

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened broadly in modest positive territory, but have marginally slipped off best levels as the morning progressed. News flow recently has been very light, and we are still awaiting details regarding who US President Trump’s new Fed/BLS appointees will be, after one walked and the other got the boot. Trump is due to speak on CNBC at 13:00 BST / 08:00 EDT. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a handful of sectors residing in marginal negative territory. Food Beverage and Tobacco tops the pile, with Diageo (the third largest weighting in the sector), popping at the open. Energy follows closely behind, as heavyweight BP benefits from strong results and as it initiates further cost reviews.

Top European News

  • UK FCA head warned UK lenders must stop “haggling” over a planned multibillion-pound redress scheme for consumers mis-sold car finance, according to FT.

FX

  • DXY has mildly extended on Monday's attempted recovery, albeit, upside is modest in comparison to the hefty sell-off seen post-NFP on Friday. The rally in the USD remains tempered by the recent downside in the US rates space as markets continue to price in the likelihood of a September rate cut. Note, markets still await Trump's replacement for Fed's Kugler and the head of the BLS. On the Fed, non-voter Daly stated that she is of the view that the FOMC cannot wait to be certain there is no inflation persistence and need to make a call based on what's most likely. For today's docket, the main highlight is the July ISM services report with the headline expected to rise to 51.5 from 50.8. DXY has ran into resistance at the 99.0 mark. If breached, there is clean air until the 100 level.
  • EUR/USD is lower with the pair continued to primarily be led by fluctuations in the USD. Incremental macro drivers for the Eurozone remain on the light side asides from commentary by an EU official that it is already seeing the implementation of the EU-US framework trade deal, which is providing an all-including tariff rate of 15%. As a caveat, the official reiterated the EU's line that the joint statement is not legally binding. EUR/USD remains on a 1.15 handle with the pair currently capped by its 200DMA at 1.1586.
  • JPY softer vs. the broadly firmer USD and back on a 147 handle after USD/JPY delved as low as 146.63 overnight. On the trade front, Japanese trade negotiator Akazawa is to leave for Washington today, looking to press US President Trump into signing of an executive order that would bring an agreed cut to tariffs on Japanese auto imports into effect, according to Reuters. BoJ minutes passed with little in the way of fanfare given they were from the June meeting.
  • GBP steady vs. the USD as newsflow surrounding the UK remains light with an upward revision to services and composite PMI data unable to stoke a reaction in GBP. That will change on Thursday with the latest BoE policy announcement and MPR, which is 82% priced for a 25bps reduction. Cable remains tucked within Monday's 1.3254-3331 range.
  • Antipodeans are both are on the backfoot vs. the USD after an indecisive session yesterday. The USD is providing the greatest source of traction for AUD/USD and NZD/USD amid the absence of tier-1 data from Australia and New Zealand, while the latest Chinese PMI data was somewhat mixed.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1366 vs exp. 7.1667 (Prev. 7.1395)

Fixed Income

  • A modestly softer start to the day for USTs. Newsflow thus far has been light and the morning’s price action is seemingly just a slight pullback from the marginal extension above post-NFP highs seen on Monday, rather than any overt bearish move. Thus far, USTs are down to a 112-07+ low, pulling back from Monday’s 112-14 peak but still clear of the WTD 111-31+ base. Ahead, a busy US docket with ISM Services, RCM TIPP, Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow and a 3yr Note auction all scheduled. Additionally, POTUS will be appearing on CNBC at 13:00BST. From Trump, we are attentive to any clues as to who the Fed board, and by extension Chair, nominees will be after Trump said on the weekend that he would be making an announcement on it this week, in addition to the new BLS head.
  • Bunds began the morning on the front foot, with Bunds up to a 130.60 peak with gains in excess of 30 ticks at one point. However, this has been gradually paring across the morning with the benchmark down to a 130.16 trough with downside of just over 10 ticks at most. Initial upside was seemingly an extension of the strength seen on Monday, with the benchmark picking up into the European cash equity open. Thereafter, a modest pullback began into the morning’s Final PMIs. Though, to be clear, the PMIs do not appear to have driven the action. In brief, the final releases have been subject to two-way revisions. For the bloc as a whole, both Composite and Services were subject to modest revisions lower. PPI printed in-line with consensus, no sustained reaction scene on the release though the subsequent UK auction result (strong, see below) appears to have lifted the fixed complex from lows across the board. German auction was also fairly decent, but sparked no move.
  • UK specific newsflow a little light once again as we count down to the BoE later in the week. Markets currently almost fully price in a rate cut, though the actual decision is unlikely to be that simple with a three-way split very possible. UK PMIs were revised a little higher but had limited impact on UK paper. In terms of today’s action, Gilts opened a tick lower at 92.64 before extending to a 92.84 peak acknowledging the initial upward bias seen in EGBs. Thereafter, gradually drifted across the morning to a 92.48 low with downside of just under 20 ticks at most. Supply this morning was strong, with a 3.33x b/c (prev. 2.89x), helping lift the benchmark from the above low by around 15 ticks and back to essentially unchanged on the session
  • UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.5% 2035 Gilt: b/c 3.33x (prev. 2.89x), average yield 4.522% (prev. 4.635%) & tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.2bps
  • Germany sells EUR 3.916bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 1.90% 2027 Schatz: b/c 2.50x (prev. 2.3x), average yield 1.90% (prev. 1.87%) and retention 21.68% (prev. 22.02%

Commodities

  • Initial choppy trade in the crude complex, but has recently traded with a downward bias; currently trading at lows. WTI resides in a 65.50-66.39/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.205-69.87/bbl range.
  • Precious metals are mostly lower trade as the dollar regains some composure with DXY back on a 99.00 handle. Price action this morning has been contained for the yellow metal, with support found on Monday near its 50 DMA (USD 3,344.59/oz today), as spot gold resides in a USD 3,365.79-3,382.37/oz range at the time of writing.
  • Mostly softer trade across base metals amid the firmer dollar, although macro newsflow this morning has been rather light. Overnight, copper was kept afloat alongside the mostly positive risk environment and after the latest PMI data from China, which was somewhat mixed but showed an acceleration in China's services industry. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,659.95-9,751.00/t range.
  • Libya's National Oil Corporation signed an MoU with Exxon (XOM) following a decade-long halt in activity.
  • Saudi Aramco says it anticipates oil demand in H2 to be over 2mln BPD above H1 levels; continue to invest in various initiatives, incl. new energies and digital innovation focused on AI.

Geopolitics

  • Russia's Medvedev blamed NATO countries for the end of the moratorium on short and medium-range missiles, while he stated that Moscow will take further steps.
  • Russia's Kremlin says Russia no longer considers itself bound by any limits on intermediate-range missile deployment.
  • Israel PM Netanyahu will convene a meeting on Gaza and the hostage deal, via journalist Stein citing an Israeli official; official adds, US Envoy Witkoff returned to the US with "a broad consensus that a deal must include all of the hostages".

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Jun Trade Balance, est. -61b, prior -71.52b
  • 9:45 am: Jul F S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 55.2, prior 55.2
  • 9:45 am: Jul F S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 54.6, prior 54.6
  • 10:00 am: Jul ISM Services Index, est. 51.5, prior 50.8

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have stabilised over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+1.47%) reversing the majority of Friday’s losses after the disappointing labour data and the news of two important people leaving their posts. This came as investors further increased their speculation that the Federal Reserve would ease policy in September. The mood has been helped by a decent Q2 earnings season so far.

While US rates initially saw a moderate sell-off in the European morning, this reversed later in the day with 10yr Treasuries yields lower by -2.4bps by the close to 4.192%, and the 30yr down -3.1bps to 4.79%. This came as the probability of a rate cut for the September meeting grew to 97%, after having finished last week at 87% (40% before payrolls), as investors expect the Fed to shift their view on the state of the labour market after last week’s payrolls. This was given further credence when San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daly (non-voter) said that two rate cuts this year was “an appropriate amount of recalibration,” and that the FOMC “should be prepared in my judgment to do more if the labor market looks to be entering that period of weakness and we still haven’t seen spillovers to inflation.”

Elsewhere in Europe, fixed income bonds saw a large rally on the back off strong real money demand with 10yr Bunds -5.5bps, and 10yr OATs -6.5bps lower, however the largest gains were in BTPs, where 10yr yields were -7.9bps lower.
Ahead of the new August 7th trade deadline for implementing US tariffs there were some headlines out of Europe and the White House. First regarding the 39% tariff levied against Switzerland, the Swiss government put out a statement yesterday saying that they are “ready to present a more attractive offer, taking US concerns into account and seeking to ease the current tariff situation.” This comes after reports that most Swiss officials were anticipating a similar deal to the UK or EU and were taken by surprise by the significant tariff increase. The surprise hike seemingly stems from the large trade surplus the country has with the US, mostly due to Switzerland’s outsized gold exports as well as pharmaceuticals. The country noted yesterday that the trade balance “is not the result of any ‘unfair trade practices’.” Due to the public holiday last Friday, yesterday was the first day the Swiss market reacted to the tariff news with the SMI index initially down -1.9% after trading opened, before paring those loses to close down -0.15% on the day. So, we will see what Switzerland has to offer.

Later on in the day, President Trump said he will substantially raise tariffs on Indian exports as the country continues to purchase oil from Russia. President Trump stated that “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian oil, they are then selling it on the Open Market for big profits”, and that “they don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.” The President did not say to what level the tariff rate could go, which currently sits at 25% following last week’s announcement. The threats came as reports appeared that Prime Minister Modi has urged the population to buy locally produced goods in a bid to deter people from imported products, and that the Indian government hasn’t given India’s oil refiners instructions to stop buying Russian oil. Bloomberg reported last week that refiners were told to come up with plans for buying non-Russian crude, but the story stated one of the people said the instruction amounted to scenario planning in case Russian crude were to become unavailable. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said yesterday that their relationship with Russia is a “steady and time-tested partnership.”

There was greater focus on Crude yesterday following the announcement over the weekend that OPEC+ would increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This increase will fully unwind the 2.2 million barrels per day production cuts that were announced back in November of 2023 about a year ahead of time. This is notable given ongoing concerns about how US tariffs can affect global growth, and so the group will now monitor how demand progress ahead of a follow-up meeting in early September. Between the increase in production and expectations that more could be put back online as well as the news on India’s use of Russian crude, oil markets whipsawed a bit yesterday, before settling lower. Brent crude closed down -1.31% at $68.76/bbl and are a couple of tenths of a percent lower again this morning.

The fall in oil prices caused the S&P 500 Energy subsector to lag (-0.44%), even as the S&P 500 as a whole gained +1.47% in its best single trading session since late-May. Technology and Media led the way as the Nasdaq was up +1.95%, and the Magnificent 7 up +2.04%. This rally came ahead of Palantir’s earnings after the close where the company announced a 48% rise in revenues on the back of an “astonishing impact” of AI on its business, with the company’s shares trading +4.6% higher in post-market trading after gaining +4.1% during yesterday’s session. The beat is an ongoing trend so far, as 82% of S&P 500 companies have beat earnings expectations this season, which is well above the historical average as our Equity Strategists highlighted in their note yesterday here. On the other side of the Atlantic, markets gained as well with Stoxx 600 up +0.90%, and DAX up by +1.42% on the day.

In other news, Tesla’s board of directors awarded Elon Musk a package of 94m additional shares, worth about $30bn, sending Tesla shares +2.20% higher.This was done to retain the CEO within the company, citing that Musk has been a “leader who is a magnet for hiring and retaining talent at Tesla”, even though Tesla shares have been down -25% since the beginning of the year.

Yesterday saw a continued reversal of the recent dollar strength. The dollar index fell by -0.36% after a -0.83% fall Friday, as traders are assessing the value of the greenback in anticipation of more uncertainty following the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Investors will be keeping an eye on who the White House puts forward for both the head of the BLS as well as the potential replacement of Fed Governor Kugler.

We are mostly edging higher this morning in Asia, led by the Kospi (+1.41%) , buoyed by better-than-expected PMI data, with the S&P/ASX200 (+1.14%) continuing to extend its gains this week. In China, the June services PMI data was stronger than expected at 52.6 (vs. 50.4 expected), which led to a rally in both the CSI (+0.34%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.53%). Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.77%) has recovered some of yesterday's declines, following a slight improvement in PMI services that increased to 51.6 (vs. 51.5 prior). Japanese rates have also experienced another rally, with 10yr JGB yields lower by -4.6bps, and 30yr yields down -2.2bps. S&P 500 (+0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.22%) futures are slightly higher.

Looking at yesterday’s data releases, the main prints in a quiet day came out from the US where new factory orders printed in line with expectations at -4.8%, and durable goods orders came in slightly below consensus at -9.4% (vs. -9.3% expected). There was a slight downward revision to core shipments which would imply about a tenth or two downgrade to Q2 GDP, which was initially reported at 3.0% last week.

To the day ahead now, the main highlights will be the US July ISM services, and June trade balances, while in Europe we will receive a fresh batch of PPI data. In terms of earnings, the focus will be on AMD, after last week’s disappointing releases from Qualcomm and ARM. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 08:26

UBS Reacts To Palantir Earnings: "No Cracks In The Story"

UBS Reacts To Palantir Earnings: "No Cracks In The Story"

"This is still only the beginning of something much larger and, we believe, even more significant," Palantir Technologies CEO Alex Karp wrote in a letter to shareholders following the positive earnings release on Monday evening. 

Karp continued, "Our overall business generated more than $1 billion in revenue for the second quarter of the year, a stunning 48% increase over the same period the year before, as we reach an annual run rate of more than four billion dollars."

Palantir's growth rate "accelerated radically", as per Karp's letter, because of three mega trends unfolding:

  • Custom AI application demand

  • Data infrastructure investment

  • Defense tech modernization

Here's that acceleration... 

Bold statement by Karp:

And our U.S. commercial business—the emerging core of Palantir and the seed of what an entire industry will become, perhaps the world's most dominant, in the years to come—nearly doubled in twelve months, generating $306 million in revenue last quarter, representing a 93% increase from $159 million the year before.

And that acceleration. 

Karp's comments on the American empire:

Similarly, in the United States, the most consequential country in the West, it is the culture that enables companies like ours to come into existence—and excel. It must be protected. The United States is not, and should not be permitted to become, a soft compromise and amalgam of global values and tastes.

Summary: Palantir Q2 2025 – Key Financial Results (Blowout Beat Across the Board):

  • Revenue $1.00 billion, +48% y/y, estimate $939.3 million

  • Operating profit $269.3 million vs. $105.3 million y/y, estimate $172.2 million

  • EPS 13c vs. 6.0c y/y

  • Cash and cash equivalents $929.5 million, estimate $1.31 billion

  • Adjusted operating profit $464.4 million, +83% y/y, estimate $404.4 million

  • Adjusted EPS 16c, estimate 14c

  • Adjusted Ebitda $470.9 million, estimate $410.4 million

  • Adjusted free cash flow $568.8 million vs. $148.7 million y/y

  • Adjusted operating margin 46% vs. 37% y/y, estimate 42.8%

The data-analysis software company co-founded by Peter Thiel raised its full-year forecast after the earnings beat. 

Palantir Q3 2025 Forecast (Blowout Guidance):

  • Sees revenue $1.08 billion to $1.09 billion, estimate $985.4 million

  • Sees adjusted operating profit $493 million to $497 million, estimate $417.2 million

Palantir FY25 Outlook (Raised Across the Board):

  • Sees revenue $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion, saw $3.89 billion to $3.90 billion, estimate $3.91 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Sees adjusted operating profit $1.91 billion to $1.92 billion, saw $1.71 billion to $1.72 billion, estimate $1.72 billion

  • Sees adjusted free cash flow $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion, saw $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion

  • Sees U.S. Commercial revenue above $1.30 billion

Commenting on the earnings report is UBS analyst Karl Keirstead. He stated there are "no big cracks in the story" and raised the price target for the firm from $110 to $165. 

Keirstead's first take on the earnings:

Summary: Palantir reported its 8th straight quarter of revs growth acceleration, a turnaround that we've never seen before, from 13% growth in 2Q23 to a just-reported 2Q25 growth rate of 48%, while at a $4 billion revs scale. Palantir raised the full year 2025 total growth guidance to 45% from 36%, without compromising on the non-GAAP margin target, which was inched up to 46%. Palantir is benefiting from a confluence of mega-trends in AI application development, investments at the data layer and the modernization of defense tech, but valuation at 136x CY26E FCF remains our key hurdle and we remain Neutral rated.

Thoughts on the Fundamentals: Both the commercial (45% of revs, +47% growth) and the government (55% of revs, +49% growth) segments were very strong, with no evidence of U.S. Fed/DOGE-related pressure, evidence that Palantir is on the right side of DoD spending mix shifts. Palantir described the U.S. commercial segment (+93% growth at a $1.2 billion revs run-rate) as its "emerging core" and while it may not be formal guidance, the CEO said that he'd like to see this segment 10x over the next 5 years. This would put the U.S. Commercial segment at a $12 billion run-rate and implies a 58% 5-year CAGR. For 2025, Palantir raised its full year revs guide by ~$250 million (the 2Q25 beat was $66 million) to +45% growth, this time with no tempered language about 2H-weighted Fed deal linearity. The only flaw was the -3% y/y growth rate in the Intl Commercial segment. Net, we're raising our 2025 revs growth estimate to 47% from 38%.

Readthrough to Software/Tech Peers: We'd note: 1. The results strengthen the now-consensus Street view that enterprise demand for custom-built AI apps and data modernization remains very strong, a positive readthrough to data software peers Snowflake and Databricks. 2. The resiliency of Palantir's U.S. Fed business is likely idiosyncratic to defense tech and is NOT a good readthrough to software firms with high Fed exposure. 3. The cleanest/best 2Q25 software sector prints have now come from Microsoft and Palantir, likely bolstering investor confidence to stay long the infra/data/AI stocks rather than rotate into seat-based SaaS/apps stocks.

Valuation: On our CY26 estimates Palantir trades at 136x FCF. We roll our valuation to CY27 and raise our PT to $165 from $110 based on a CY27E FCF multiple of 105x (previously 120x our CY26E FCF), a significant but deserved premium given PLTR's growth/margin profile is one of the strongest in Software.

Meanwhile, analysts at Jefferies noted that even with Palantir's strong results and clearly accelerating U.S. commercial growth, its valuation is "on a different planet" and disconnected from even the most optimistic growth scenarios.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 08:05

The Real Russiagate Scandal Blows Away Watergate For Crimes And Treason By US Establishment

The Real Russiagate Scandal Blows Away Watergate For Crimes And Treason By US Establishment

Via SCF,

So the hoax is finally officially acknowledged. “Russiagate” – the mainstream narrative, that is – is now described by American intelligence chiefs as a fabrication that was concocted to overturn the results of the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.

Tulsi Gabbard, the current Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and CIA director John Ratcliffe have both accused former President Barack Obama of engaging in a “treasonous conspiracy” to subvert the constitutional process. It’s not just Obama who is implicated in this high crime. Other former senior officials in his 2013-17 administration, including former DNI James Clapper, CIA director John Brennan, and head of the FBI James Comey, are also implicated. If justice is permitted, the political repercussions are truly earth-shattering.

The potential impact is not confined solely to the violation of U.S. laws and the democratic process – bad enough that is. The Russiagate scandal that began in 2016 has had a lasting, damaging effect on U.S. and European relations with Russia.

The frightfully dangerous NATO proxy war incited in Ukraine, which threatens to escalate into a full-scale world war, was fueled in large part by the hostility generated from the false claims of Russian interference in the U.S. elections.

The allegations that Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw a subversion campaign against the 2016 U.S. election and colluded with Donald Trump to get him elected were always specious. The scandal was based on shoddy intel claims to purportedly explain how Trump defeated his Democrat rival, Hillary Clinton. Subsequently, the scandal was hyped into a seemingly credible narrative by U.S. intelligence chiefs at the direction of then-President Barack Obama as a way to delegitimize Trump’s incoming first-term presidency.

Years before the recent intelligence disclosures, many independent journalists, including Aaron Maté, and former intelligence analysts like Ray MacGovern and William Binney, had cogently disproven the official Russiagate claims. Not only were these claims false, they were knowingly false. That is, lies and deliberate distortions. Russia did not hack emails belonging to the Democratic National Committee to discredit Clinton. Clinton’s corruption was exposed by a DNC internal leak to Julian Assange’s Wikileaks whistleblower site. That was partly why Assange was persecuted with years-long incarceration.

A large enough number of voters simply despised Clinton and her warmongering psychopathy, as well as her sell-out of working-class Americans for Wall Street largesse.

Furthermore, Moscow consistently denied any involvement in trying to influence the 2016 U.S. election or attempts to favor Trump. Putin has said more than once that Russia has no preference about who becomes U.S. president, implying that they’re all the same and controlled by deeper state forces. Laughably, too, while Washington accused Moscow of election interference, the actual record shows that the United States has habitually interfered in scores of foreign elections over many decades, including those of Russia. No other nation comes close to the U.S. – the self-declared “leader of the free world” – in sabotaging foreign elections.

In any case, it is instructive to compare the Russiagate farce with the Watergate scandal.

Watergate involved spying by the White House of President Richard Nixon against a Democrat rival in the 1972 election. The political crisis that ensued led to Nixon’s resignation in disgrace in 1974. The U.S. nation was shocked by the dirty tricks. Several senior White House officials were later convicted and served time in jail for crimes related to the affair. Nixon was later pardoned by his successor, Gerald Ford, and avoided prosecution. Nevertheless, Watergate indelibly disgraced U.S. politics and, at the time, was described as “the worst political scandal of the 20th century.”

Subsequent cases of corruption and malfeasance are often dubbed with the suffix “gate” in a nod to Watergate as a momentous political downfall. Hence, “Russiagate.”

There are hugely important differences, however.

While Watergate was a scandal based on factual crimes and wrongdoing, Russiagate was always a contrived propaganda deception.

The real scandal behind Russiagate was not Trump’s alleged misdeeds or those of Russia, but the criminal conspiracy by Obama and his administration to sabotage the 2016 election and subsequently to overthrow the Trump presidency and the democratic will of the American people. Tulsi Gabbard, the nation’s most senior intelligence chief, has said that this amounts to “treason,” and she has called for the prosecution of Obama and other former senior aides.

Arguably, the real Russiagate scandal is far more criminal and devastating in its political implications than Watergate. The latter involved illegal spying and dirty tricks. Whereas, Russiagate involved a president and his intelligence chiefs trying to subvert the entire democratic process. Not only that, but the U.S. mainstream media are also now exposed for perpetrating a propaganda heist on the American public. All of the major U.S. media outlets amplified the politicised intelligence orchestrated by the Obama administration, claiming that Russia interfered in the election and that Trump was a “Kremlin stooge.” The hoax became an obsession in the U.S. media for years and piled up severe damage in international relations, a nefarious legacy that we are living with today.

The New York Times and Washington Post, reputedly two of the finest exponents of American journalism, jointly won the Pulitzer Prize in 2018 for their reporting on Russiagate, the official version, that is, which lent credibility to the hoax. In light of what we know now, these newspapers should be hanging their heads in shame for running a Goebbels-like Big Lie campaign to not only deceive the U.S. public but to subvert the democratic process and poison international relations. Their reputations are shredded, as well as those of other major media outlets, including ABC, CBS, CNN, and NBC.

Ironically, The Washington Post won the Pulitzer Prize in 1973 for its reporting on the Watergate scandal. The story was made into a best-selling book, All The President’s Men, and a hit Hollywood movie starring Robert Redford and Dustin Hoffman, playing the roles of intrepid reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. Woodward and Bernstein and The Washington Post were acclaimed as the finest in U.S. journalism for exposing Watergate and bringing a crooked president to book.

How shameful and absurd that an even greater assault on American democracy and international relations in the form of Russiagate is ignored and buried by “America’s finest”. That the scandal is ignored and buried should be of no surprise because to properly reveal it would shatter the foundations of the U.S. political establishment and the sinister role of the deep state and its mainstream media propaganda system.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 07:45

The Real Russiagate Scandal Blows Away Watergate For Crimes And Treason By US Establishment

The Real Russiagate Scandal Blows Away Watergate For Crimes And Treason By US Establishment

Via SCF,

So the hoax is finally officially acknowledged. “Russiagate” – the mainstream narrative, that is – is now described by American intelligence chiefs as a fabrication that was concocted to overturn the results of the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.

Tulsi Gabbard, the current Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and CIA director John Ratcliffe have both accused former President Barack Obama of engaging in a “treasonous conspiracy” to subvert the constitutional process. It’s not just Obama who is implicated in this high crime. Other former senior officials in his 2013-17 administration, including former DNI James Clapper, CIA director John Brennan, and head of the FBI James Comey, are also implicated. If justice is permitted, the political repercussions are truly earth-shattering.

The potential impact is not confined solely to the violation of U.S. laws and the democratic process – bad enough that is. The Russiagate scandal that began in 2016 has had a lasting, damaging effect on U.S. and European relations with Russia.

The frightfully dangerous NATO proxy war incited in Ukraine, which threatens to escalate into a full-scale world war, was fueled in large part by the hostility generated from the false claims of Russian interference in the U.S. elections.

The allegations that Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw a subversion campaign against the 2016 U.S. election and colluded with Donald Trump to get him elected were always specious. The scandal was based on shoddy intel claims to purportedly explain how Trump defeated his Democrat rival, Hillary Clinton. Subsequently, the scandal was hyped into a seemingly credible narrative by U.S. intelligence chiefs at the direction of then-President Barack Obama as a way to delegitimize Trump’s incoming first-term presidency.

Years before the recent intelligence disclosures, many independent journalists, including Aaron Maté, and former intelligence analysts like Ray MacGovern and William Binney, had cogently disproven the official Russiagate claims. Not only were these claims false, they were knowingly false. That is, lies and deliberate distortions. Russia did not hack emails belonging to the Democratic National Committee to discredit Clinton. Clinton’s corruption was exposed by a DNC internal leak to Julian Assange’s Wikileaks whistleblower site. That was partly why Assange was persecuted with years-long incarceration.

A large enough number of voters simply despised Clinton and her warmongering psychopathy, as well as her sell-out of working-class Americans for Wall Street largesse.

Furthermore, Moscow consistently denied any involvement in trying to influence the 2016 U.S. election or attempts to favor Trump. Putin has said more than once that Russia has no preference about who becomes U.S. president, implying that they’re all the same and controlled by deeper state forces. Laughably, too, while Washington accused Moscow of election interference, the actual record shows that the United States has habitually interfered in scores of foreign elections over many decades, including those of Russia. No other nation comes close to the U.S. – the self-declared “leader of the free world” – in sabotaging foreign elections.

In any case, it is instructive to compare the Russiagate farce with the Watergate scandal.

Watergate involved spying by the White House of President Richard Nixon against a Democrat rival in the 1972 election. The political crisis that ensued led to Nixon’s resignation in disgrace in 1974. The U.S. nation was shocked by the dirty tricks. Several senior White House officials were later convicted and served time in jail for crimes related to the affair. Nixon was later pardoned by his successor, Gerald Ford, and avoided prosecution. Nevertheless, Watergate indelibly disgraced U.S. politics and, at the time, was described as “the worst political scandal of the 20th century.”

Subsequent cases of corruption and malfeasance are often dubbed with the suffix “gate” in a nod to Watergate as a momentous political downfall. Hence, “Russiagate.”

There are hugely important differences, however.

While Watergate was a scandal based on factual crimes and wrongdoing, Russiagate was always a contrived propaganda deception.

The real scandal behind Russiagate was not Trump’s alleged misdeeds or those of Russia, but the criminal conspiracy by Obama and his administration to sabotage the 2016 election and subsequently to overthrow the Trump presidency and the democratic will of the American people. Tulsi Gabbard, the nation’s most senior intelligence chief, has said that this amounts to “treason,” and she has called for the prosecution of Obama and other former senior aides.

Arguably, the real Russiagate scandal is far more criminal and devastating in its political implications than Watergate. The latter involved illegal spying and dirty tricks. Whereas, Russiagate involved a president and his intelligence chiefs trying to subvert the entire democratic process. Not only that, but the U.S. mainstream media are also now exposed for perpetrating a propaganda heist on the American public. All of the major U.S. media outlets amplified the politicised intelligence orchestrated by the Obama administration, claiming that Russia interfered in the election and that Trump was a “Kremlin stooge.” The hoax became an obsession in the U.S. media for years and piled up severe damage in international relations, a nefarious legacy that we are living with today.

The New York Times and Washington Post, reputedly two of the finest exponents of American journalism, jointly won the Pulitzer Prize in 2018 for their reporting on Russiagate, the official version, that is, which lent credibility to the hoax. In light of what we know now, these newspapers should be hanging their heads in shame for running a Goebbels-like Big Lie campaign to not only deceive the U.S. public but to subvert the democratic process and poison international relations. Their reputations are shredded, as well as those of other major media outlets, including ABC, CBS, CNN, and NBC.

Ironically, The Washington Post won the Pulitzer Prize in 1973 for its reporting on the Watergate scandal. The story was made into a best-selling book, All The President’s Men, and a hit Hollywood movie starring Robert Redford and Dustin Hoffman, playing the roles of intrepid reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. Woodward and Bernstein and The Washington Post were acclaimed as the finest in U.S. journalism for exposing Watergate and bringing a crooked president to book.

How shameful and absurd that an even greater assault on American democracy and international relations in the form of Russiagate is ignored and buried by “America’s finest”. That the scandal is ignored and buried should be of no surprise because to properly reveal it would shatter the foundations of the U.S. political establishment and the sinister role of the deep state and its mainstream media propaganda system.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 07:45

"Difficult Quarter": HIMS Plunges On Weak GLP-1 Sales

"Difficult Quarter": HIMS Plunges On Weak GLP-1 Sales

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), the telehealth platform known for selling compounded GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, tumbled in premarket trading in New York after missing Wall Street's revenue estimates in its Monday after-hours earnings release, despite posting a profit beat. 

Despite strong year-over-year growth in revenue (+73%) and beating EPS and EBITDA estimates, HIMS fell short of revenue and subscriber projections in the second quarter, raising concerns about sustaining momentum, especially with GLP-1s accounting for about 35% of revenue and regulatory scrutiny around GLP-1 compounds mounting. 

HIMS Q2 Earnings Summary:

Revenue: $544.8M (+73% YoY) — missed estimate of $552.1M

  • GLP-1 revenue: ~$190M

EPS: $0.17 — beat estimate of $0.15 (vs. $0.06 YoY)

Adj. EBITDA: $82.2M — beat estimate of $72M (vs. $39.3M YoY)

Gross Margin: 76% — beat estimate of 75.6% (but down from 81% YoY)

Subscribers: 2.44M (+31% YoY) — missed estimate of 2.49M

Operating Expenses: $389.5M — up 59% YoY

HIMS has come under fire for continuing to sell compounded GLP-1 drugs, priced much lower than Novo Nordisk's blockbuster weight-loss treatment, Wegovy (semaglutide). While compounding is permitted during drug shortages, the FDA declared in February that supply woes have been resolved, raising many questions about HIMS' ongoing sales.

Just weeks ago, Novo shares crashed the most on record after the Danish pharma giant slashed its full-year sales and profit guidance, citing slumping Wegovy sales. It noted compounded GLP-1 knockoffs that continue to flood the market. 

This is key: Novo stated it's "pursuing multiple strategies, including litigation, to protect patients from knockoff 'semaglutide' drugs." And this is alarming news for HIMS. 

HIMS 3Q and full-year outlooks were mainly in line with Wall Street estimates: 

3Q Outlook Summary (vs. Estimates):

  • 3Q Outlook Summary (vs. Estimates): Revenue Guidance: $570M–$590M (Street: $584.2M) ✅ In line

  • Adj. EBITDA Guidance: $60M–$70M (Street: $76.7M) ❌ Light

Full-Year Guidance Summary (vs. Estimates):

  • Revenue: $2.3B–$2.4B (Street: $2.36B) ✅ In line

  • Adj. EBITDA: $295M–$335M (Street: $322.1M) ✅ In line Weight-Loss Revenue: At least $725M 

Commentary from Wall Street analysts includes weak sales trends for its weight-loss drugs (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Citi (sell, PT $30)

  • Hims had a "difficult quarter" with a decline in weight-loss drug sales hitting revenue

  • "The GLP-1 decline was well-telegraphed given the end of bulk compounding; however, we were a bit surprised to see no sequential core revenue growth, which was largely driven by switching sexual health members from on-demand to daily solutions"

Jefferies (hold, PT to $51 from $50)

  • Negatives include the 2Q revenue miss, 3Q Ebitda guidance below the Street, and declining GLP-1 revenue

  • While investors are focused on topline growth and GLP trends, the 2Q Ebitda beat is a positive that management deserve credit for

Needham (hold)

  • The company is heading into 2H in "a state of transition" as it works through a wind-down in the GLP-1 revenue stream and shifts focus toward sexual health

  • Hims is simultaneously investing to launch hormonal health in 2H and expand into Canada in 2026

Shares of HIMS are down about 13% in premarket trading as of 6:45 a.m. ET, falling from Monday's close near record highs of $63 to around $55 per share.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 07:20

"Difficult Quarter": HIMS Plunges On Weak GLP-1 Sales

"Difficult Quarter": HIMS Plunges On Weak GLP-1 Sales

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), the telehealth platform known for selling compounded GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, tumbled in premarket trading in New York after missing Wall Street's revenue estimates in its Monday after-hours earnings release, despite posting a profit beat. 

Despite strong year-over-year growth in revenue (+73%) and beating EPS and EBITDA estimates, HIMS fell short of revenue and subscriber projections in the second quarter, raising concerns about sustaining momentum, especially with GLP-1s accounting for about 35% of revenue and regulatory scrutiny around GLP-1 compounds mounting. 

HIMS Q2 Earnings Summary:

Revenue: $544.8M (+73% YoY) — missed estimate of $552.1M

  • GLP-1 revenue: ~$190M

EPS: $0.17 — beat estimate of $0.15 (vs. $0.06 YoY)

Adj. EBITDA: $82.2M — beat estimate of $72M (vs. $39.3M YoY)

Gross Margin: 76% — beat estimate of 75.6% (but down from 81% YoY)

Subscribers: 2.44M (+31% YoY) — missed estimate of 2.49M

Operating Expenses: $389.5M — up 59% YoY

HIMS has come under fire for continuing to sell compounded GLP-1 drugs, priced much lower than Novo Nordisk's blockbuster weight-loss treatment, Wegovy (semaglutide). While compounding is permitted during drug shortages, the FDA declared in February that supply woes have been resolved, raising many questions about HIMS' ongoing sales.

Just weeks ago, Novo shares crashed the most on record after the Danish pharma giant slashed its full-year sales and profit guidance, citing slumping Wegovy sales. It noted compounded GLP-1 knockoffs that continue to flood the market. 

This is key: Novo stated it's "pursuing multiple strategies, including litigation, to protect patients from knockoff 'semaglutide' drugs." And this is alarming news for HIMS. 

HIMS 3Q and full-year outlooks were mainly in line with Wall Street estimates: 

3Q Outlook Summary (vs. Estimates):

  • 3Q Outlook Summary (vs. Estimates): Revenue Guidance: $570M–$590M (Street: $584.2M) ✅ In line

  • Adj. EBITDA Guidance: $60M–$70M (Street: $76.7M) ❌ Light

Full-Year Guidance Summary (vs. Estimates):

  • Revenue: $2.3B–$2.4B (Street: $2.36B) ✅ In line

  • Adj. EBITDA: $295M–$335M (Street: $322.1M) ✅ In line Weight-Loss Revenue: At least $725M 

Commentary from Wall Street analysts includes weak sales trends for its weight-loss drugs (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Citi (sell, PT $30)

  • Hims had a "difficult quarter" with a decline in weight-loss drug sales hitting revenue

  • "The GLP-1 decline was well-telegraphed given the end of bulk compounding; however, we were a bit surprised to see no sequential core revenue growth, which was largely driven by switching sexual health members from on-demand to daily solutions"

Jefferies (hold, PT to $51 from $50)

  • Negatives include the 2Q revenue miss, 3Q Ebitda guidance below the Street, and declining GLP-1 revenue

  • While investors are focused on topline growth and GLP trends, the 2Q Ebitda beat is a positive that management deserve credit for

Needham (hold)

  • The company is heading into 2H in "a state of transition" as it works through a wind-down in the GLP-1 revenue stream and shifts focus toward sexual health

  • Hims is simultaneously investing to launch hormonal health in 2H and expand into Canada in 2026

Shares of HIMS are down about 13% in premarket trading as of 6:45 a.m. ET, falling from Monday's close near record highs of $63 to around $55 per share.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 07:20

Home-Sellers Outnumber Home-Buyers By The Most In Over A Decade

Home-Sellers Outnumber Home-Buyers By The Most In Over A Decade

Lance Lambert, co-founder and editor of ResiClub, posted on X, highlighting an ongoing and record-breaking trend in the housing market: sellers now outnumber buyers by the widest margin since Redfin data began well over a decade ago. The growing number of sellers is especially evident in the U.S. Southwest and U.S. Southeast, particularly in Texas and Florida, where the balance of power has shifted in favor of buyers. 

There are an estimated 1.92 million home sellers in the U.S. housing market and about 1.41 million homebuyers. In other words, there are 508,715 more home sellers than buyers, a massive mismatch not seen at any other point in Redfin data going back to 2013.

Lambert has come across an inflection point for the housing market: "The longer we've remained in this strained housing demand environment, the more the total number of U.S. active sellers is outmatching the total number of active homebuyers. Of course, there's a WIDE variation across the country." 

Sellers outnumber buyers for several reasons:

  • Affordability crisis.

  • Borrowing costs remain elevated. 

  • Economic uncertainty. 

Much of the supply is materializing in Sun Belt metro areas, such as Austin, Dallas, Tampa, and Nashville. Inversely, Northeast and Midwest metros like Chicago, Hartford, and Boston have seen tight supplies. 

In case you're curious, here's Redfin's methodology on determining how many sellers are on the market. 

For more color on the rates market, Goldman analysts expect the interest rate-cutting cycle to begin next month:

Largely uneventful Fed meeting, Powell's comments suggested that lowering rates soon could be reasonable but is not yet essential. Neither the statement nor the press conference provided any direct hints about the likelihood of a cut in September. In response to a question about the two-cut baseline in the June dots, Powell acknowledged but declined to endorse it. We continue to forecast three 25bp rate cuts this year in September, October, and December, followed by two more in 2026 to a terminal rate of 3–3.25%. Powell's comments today suggest to us that a September cut is certainly still up for debate but not that labour market softening over the next two months is necessarily required, and we continue to see multiple paths to a cut.

Interest rate swaps ... 

Related:

Another fun chart. Guess what's next for homebuilder confidence... 

Will an interest rate cutting cycle be enough to cushion any landing?  

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 06:55

Deal Or Collapse: The EU-US Deal Is Positive & The Only Realistic Alternative

Deal Or Collapse: The EU-US Deal Is Positive & The Only Realistic Alternative

Authored bv Daniel Lacalle,

The agreements the United States has signed with its main trading partners are both positive and realistic.

They demonstrate that, in 2024, the world was not a trade paradise of spontaneous cooperation among free-market companies as per David Ricardo’s ideal, but rather a statist system filled with barriers against US businesses and political efforts to pick winners and losers.

The controversy surrounding the agreement between the United States and the European Union can only be explained for three reasons: animosity toward any achievements of the Trump administration, ignorance about the only realistic alternative, or because critics of the deal were genuinely satisfied with the protectionism and European barriers in place in 2024.

Critics of the deal must answer two questions:

What was the only real alternative?

The only real alternative was a collapse in European exports, a loss of competitiveness versus Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and other partners, greater offshoring of companies, and, crucially, keeping existing European trade barriers.

What would the critics have done?

Critics must explain how they would have achieved supposedly better deals when global export leaders have signed agreements like that of the European Union. They need to share with us what essential information they have that the EU negotiators do not, reportedly enabling them to achieve better conditions than Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Australia, China, and others. Is it reasonable to think that EU negotiators were stupid or reckless and did not weigh all options to achieve a beneficial agreement?

Claiming that the agreement with the United States is detrimental is, inadvertently, to defend the trade barriers with Europe’s main global partner as if they were wonderful and should be preserved. It also stems from a fantastical vision of global trade, imagining that the US market could be replaced by others.

What’s worse is that some seem to believe all of this is Trump’s fault—a favourite in today’s economic analysis—and that in four years, a Democratic president or a softer Republican will return everything to the way it was in 2024. This is a mistaken vision. Biden kept all the tariffs from the Trump and Obama administrations and increased several of them.

Why wasn’t there a significant outcry when the EU implemented substantial trade barriers or when Democratic presidents established tariffs? The outrage frequently conceals bias against Trump and conveniently overlooks Europe’s persistent imposition of new barriers on US products. Why wasn’t there an outcry over the EU’s tariffs on US chemicals, agriculture, livestock, automobiles, and manufacturing equipment—or over the 2030 Agenda, the New Green Deal, the CO₂ tax, and all the constant excessive regulation? It took Draghi to remind us that the EU imposes more hidden tariffs on itself than the United States does.

Many claim that if the EU and others set up trade barriers, the US response should be to remove, not add, tariffs. That sounds beneficial in theory but fails to consider the full geopolitical, monetary, and commercial picture. The United States would not just lose in manufacturing and the role of the US dollar with oversized trade deficits; it would also end up absorbing the overcapacity and subsidising the working capital problems of other countries. America’s trade deficit doesn’t originate from free-market cooperation but largely from politically imposed barriers on US companies. This is why many countries would prefer a 15% tariff to removing all their non-tariff barriers.

We cannot ignore the significant tariff and non-tariff barriers that have been explicitly established to exclude US products, which are then utilised to benefit politically connected countries—such as Turkey or Morocco in relation to the EU, or even China.

The number of zero-for-zero tariff sectors is clearly positive and the list is expected to increase over time. Lifting some of the EU’s non-tariff barriers is also positive and in line with the recommendations of the Draghi report.

By accepting a 15% tariff instead of eliminating all their non-tariff barriers, America’s trading partners are admitting they would rather pay the cost than relinquish regulatory power, and they acknowledge there is no simple way to just replace the US consumer.

It’s also disingenuous to claim that buying American energy is pricier than buying Russian energy. Such arguments reveal the enormous bias and contradiction, especially given record European imports of Russian LNG in 2024. This agreement helps diversify supply and ensures security during crisis periods.

Some media outlets have misrepresented the agreement’s military equipment element. It is false that the agreement requires the EU to buy only US military equipment. These are two distinct topics, and the agreement does not reduce investment in European companies. The commitment is positive for the EU’s rearmament plans and does not undermine domestic investment projects.

European Keynesian analysts, who have quietly observed massive tax hikes and employment cost increases of over 50%, cannot credibly claim that a 15% tariff is devastating when just recently they insisted 30% tariffs would have a minor impact. The consensus estimates indicated that the impact for the EU would only be between 0.3% and 0.5% over three years. The ECB and other institutions described the effects as “manageable,” “bearable,” and having a low impact on inflation.

The Keynesian consensus can’t, on the one hand, say a 30% tariff would have a limited, bearable impact and minimal inflation effect, and a few months later insist that a 15% tariff would be disastrous. This only serves to support the narrative that anything agreed upon by Trump must be detrimental.

The EU could have negotiated for zero tariffs if it had agreed to eliminate all non-tariff barriers; however, it chose a compromise to maintain most of its regulatory framework. IIn any case, this outcome is much more favourable than losing the trade surplus and access to the US market. Therefore, the EU does not “lose”; instead, it accepts a small tariff, similar to Japan, the UK, and South Korea, because it prefers to maintain most of its non-tariff barriers.

The truly devastating alternative would have been losing market share to other countries and maintaining barriers that perpetuate European economic stagnation, not to mention missing out on a key agreement for defence, technology, and energy.

Everyone benefits from deals that establish a fairer and more open trade framework than what existed in 2024. Conservative estimates place the benefit for the EU at about €150 billion annually, assuming the fulfilment of commitments.

Both the United States and the European Union benefit from an agreement that strengthens trade ties, corrects an unfair trade deficit, removes barriers, and increases the number of zero-tariff sectors. Additionally, both sides gain a crucial alliance in defence, energy, and technology—all without limiting investment in their homegrown industries.

The only real alternative was no deal, which would ruin the EU’s economy and trade. The negotiators from the EU and the US recognised this situation and successfully reached a significant agreement that benefited both parties.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 05:00

The Secret Payments That Keep Global Ransomware Attacks Going

The Secret Payments That Keep Global Ransomware Attacks Going

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Cyber attacks—usually involving ransomware—are making the news almost every day, and experts say artificial intelligence (AI) is being deployed to help the attackers find their targets more quickly.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images

Ransomware is a type of malicious software—or malware—that prevents a user from accessing their computer files, systems, or networks and demands they pay a ransom for their return, according to the FBI.

Among the dozens of ransomware attacks in the United States in July included incidents at Susan B. Allen Memorial Hospital in Kansas, Ingram Micro, an IT company in California, and Cookeville Regional Medical Center in Tennessee.

The number of reported ransomware attacks worldwide in 2024 was 5,289, up 15 percent on the year before, according to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

But those figures do not include the vast majority of attacks, which were not reported, according to Andy Jenkinson, a fellow of the Cyber Theory Institute and author of the book “Stuxnet to Sunburst: 20 Years of Digital Exploitation and Cyber Warfare.”

“Ransomware is huge. Ransoms are being paid left, right, and center. There are two types of ransomware attacks: one that becomes public and one that becomes covered up,” he told The Epoch Times.

PurpleSec, a U.S. cybersecurity company, estimates that the average cost of a ransomware attack has risen since 2019 from $761,106 to $5.14 million.

Ransoms Paid in Crypto

Jenkinson said ransoms are almost always paid in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are harder to trace than bank transfers.

Comparitech keeps a database of ransomware attacks around the world, and Jenkinson said cybercrime—including cyberscams that are carried out using stolen data—costs $32 billion a day globally.

A report last month by Sophos, based on a survey of cybersecurity leaders in 17 countries, found that nearly 50 percent of companies paid ransoms, and the median payment was $1 million.

Adnan Malik, a lawyer who is head of data protection at Barings Law in Manchester, England, told The Epoch Times that companies do not openly declare they have paid a ransom.

An image of a seized ransomware website is displayed during a Department of Justice press conference in Washington on Jan. 26, 2023. As artificial intelligence is increasingly used to support cyberattacks, some officials are seeking to curb the crime by limiting ransom payments, which they say fuel cybercrime. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

“They will try and brush it under the carpet. ... They will try and disguise it as some other expense.”

Malik said that companies often haggled with ransomware attackers.

“Hackers will start with a very absurd amount, and it’s not uncommon for a demand in millions to be reduced to a couple of hundred thousand. It happens all the time,” he said.

James Babbage, the director general (Threats) at the UK’s National Crime Agency, told the BBC’s “Panorama” program recently that “it is the paying of ransoms which fuels this crime.”

“We would in general discourage victims from paying ransoms, but every victim needs to make their own choice,” Babbage said.

Paul Abbott was the director of a trucking company in England, KNP Logistics Group, which had to close down with the loss of 730 jobs in September 2023, as a direct result of a ransomware attack.

Abbott told The Epoch Times that a night shift worker first noticed a problem with the company’s computer systems and called in the IT support team, which initially didn’t think it was anything malicious.

He said they carried out a controlled shutdown restart and, “During the restart, they discovered a text file which was embedded into one of the servers that was a ransom note from the Akira group, and obviously the root cause of the issue became very clear at that point.”

Akira is one of the best-known ransomware groups. “It’s easy money for people that know what they’re doing,” Abbott said.

Enforcement Efforts

The British government announced on July 22 plans to ban ministries, state-owned agencies, schools, hospitals, and operators of critical national infrastructure from paying ransom demands to cyber-criminals.

Jenkinson said other issues need to be addressed first.

“Banning ransom payments without fixing the root vulnerabilities is like offering heart transplants to junk food addicts without changing their diet. The UK’s proposal risks driving cybercrime further underground while treating symptoms, not causes,” he said.

“Unless we tackle the insecure systems and poor cyber hygiene that enable these attacks, we’re applying plasters to a thousand cuts while leaving the knife untouched.”

Europol, the police force for the European Union, said it had taken part in a July 22 operation which led to the arrest, in Kyiv, Ukraine, of the alleged administrator of the XSS.is forum, which it said was one of the most influential Russian-speaking cybercrime platforms.

The alleged administrator of XSS.is, a Russian-language cybercrime forum, is arrested in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 22, 2025. XSS, short for cross-site scripting, is a cyberattack method that injects malicious code into trusted websites to steal data or hijack user sessions. Europol

XSS, or cross-site scripting, is a common form of cyber-attack in which malicious scripts are injected into trusted websites to steal data or hijack user sessions.

Europol said the XSS forum had more than 50,000 registered users and was a “key marketplace for stolen data, hacking tools, and illicit services.”

In May last year, the U.S. State Department offered a $10 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Dmitry Khoroshev, who it said was the administrator of the LockBit ransomware group.

The State Department said LockBit had carried out attacks on more than 2,500 victims around the world, including around 1,800 in the United States, and had obtained at least $150 million in ransom payments, in the form of digital currency.

Britain’s National Crime Agency said Khoroshev was known as LockBitSupp, and “provided ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) to a global network of hackers or ‘affiliates,’ supplying them with the tools and infrastructure to carry out attacks.”

Russian national Dmitry Khoroshev, the alleged administrator of the LockBit ransomware group, in file images. The State Department said LockBit attacked more than 2,500 victims globally—about 1,800 in the United States—and collected at least $150 million in cryptocurrency ransom payments. UK National Crime Agency Poor Data Infrastructure

Jenkinson said false narratives suggest cybercriminals were becoming “more sophisticated” and were all based in countries such as Russia and other former Soviet republics, which were beyond the reach of the law.

Malik agrees, saying that, in reality, “The hackers are good, but some of the systems that organizations have here are very poor.”

“By and large, most organizations have very poor data infrastructure, very poor systems that allow hackers entry into their system,” he said.

Jenkinson pointed to recent attacks perpetrated by Scattered Spider, a group of U.S. and UK hackers who were believed to include a number of teenagers.

In May, one of the alleged leaders of Scattered Spider, 23-year-old Tyler Buchanan, a British national, was extradited from Spain to the United States to face charges of conspiracy to commit computer intrusion, wire fraud, and aggravated identity theft in California.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 03:30

Russia Abandons Moratorium On Deploying Short & Medium-Range Missiles

Russia Abandons Moratorium On Deploying Short & Medium-Range Missiles

Russia on Monday made a formal declaration that it considers itself no longer bound by the terms of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with the United States.

The statement said the restrictions have "disappeared" and Russia "no longer considers itself bound" by it, according a Russian Foreign Ministry statement. The agreement banned ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500–5,500km.

However, this new declaration is largely symbolic anyway, given the INF Treaty already collapsed in 2019 when the US unilaterally withdrew while complaining of violations by Moscow. Also, Russia's military has for years been using all kinds of missiles in Ukraine, including hypersonic weapons.

Getty Images

But Moscow all along said it was biding by the treaty's terms, having imposed a self-moratorium. But this is no more...

"The Russian Foreign Ministry notes the disappearance of conditions for maintaining the unilateral moratorium on the deployment of similar weapons and is authorized to state that Russia no longer considers itself bound by the corresponding self-imposed restrictions previously adopted," the statement reads.

Last week President Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to deploy "closer to Russia" - citing threatening nuclear rhetoric of former Russian president Dimitry Medvedev.

The "actions of Western countries" are creating a "direct threat" to Russian security, the ministry statement said. A few specifics instances of the US already in effect violating the treaty were highlighted: 

  • Last year the US deployed a Typhon missile launcher in the Philippines. 
  • The US Army also fired Typhon during regional joint exercises with Australia.
  • The Australian Army has  an American Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), in July, and it has a maximum range beyond 500km
  • There's been recent US missile activity in Denmark

Russian officials have long warned of an arms race being set off, harming global stability and security, if the US were to withdraw; but it fell on deaf ears and there's merely one landmark treaty left between the superpowers: New START, which regulates nuclear weapons, and has to be renewed.

President Trump has recently expressed hope that New START treaty can be renegotiated and extended. At the moment, both sides seem open to this, and talks could start soon.

Amid all the latest nuclear-related rhetoric, more arrows from Medvedev...

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 02:45

EU Court Rulings 'Castrate' Nations' Asylum Control, Warns Top German Expert

EU Court Rulings 'Castrate' Nations' Asylum Control, Warns Top German Expert

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has carried out a “migration policy castration of the EU member states,” German constitutional lawyer Prof. Markus C. Kerber warned following a landmark asylum ruling that critics say strips national governments of the ability to manage their own borders.

The ruling, handed down in Luxembourg on Friday, states that a third country may only be designated as a “safe country of origin” if it offers effective protection to all population groups — and that this designation must be based on transparent, public information accessible to asylum seekers and the courts. Otherwise, fast-track returns are invalid.

The judgment has major implications for national migration policies, particularly in countries like Italy and Austria that have drawn up their own lists of safe third countries. In the specific case reviewed, two Bangladeshi migrants had been transferred to Albania under Italy’s agreement to process asylum claims outside the EU. Their claims were dismissed on the grounds that Bangladesh was safe, but the Italian law did not cite any sources, which the European Court ruled was a violation of EU law.

Prof. Kerber, a Berlin-based constitutional expert, accused the Court of overreach.

“The strengthening of the judiciary by the ECJ for all cases of reviewing asylum applications leads to the castration of EU member states’ migration policy,” he said in an interview with Austrian media outlet, exxpress.

“The public will increasingly perceive the EU as an entity acting against its own citizens.”

He warned that the court was imposing an “overly bureaucratized procedure” that would make meaningful control over migration impossible. “Social systems are bursting,” Kerber said. “And the willingness of the majority of society to accept refugees is declining drastically.”

“What will happen if suddenly 3 million people from an unsafe country of origin appear at our border? Should we then accept them all?” he asked.

Kerber is a constitutional lawyer and professor of public finance and political economy at the Technical University of Berlin. He also serves as a visiting professor at Sciences Po in Paris and has been involved in several high-profile legal cases, including a 2008 challenge to the Lisbon Treaty before Germany’s Constitutional Court. He is the founder of the Berlin-based think tank Europolis, which advocates for market-based reforms within the European Union.

The Court’s ruling is also likely to undermine similar policies elsewhere in Europe. Austria’s safe country list includes nations such as Algeria, Morocco, Ghana, and Serbia, but legal experts warn these could now be challenged if minorities within those countries are found to be at risk. Going forward, all such designations must be based on current, verifiable, and publicly available data.

Andreas Rosenfelder, editor at Welt, called the ruling an act of “do-gooder justice” that sacrifices the rights of EU citizens in the name of universal morality. “This moralized judiciary would rather negotiate the injustices of the world than defend its own population,” he wrote. “If this impression continues to harden, then the citizens will choose a different Europe with a different judiciary.”

Responding to Friday’s ruling, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed her outrage at the latest example of a supranational judiciary meddling in the domestic affairs of a member state.

Posting on social media, Meloni wrote, “The decision of the EU Court of Justice regarding the safe countries of origin for illegal migrants is surprising. Once again, the judiciary, this time at the European level, claims spaces that do not belong to it.

“This is a development that should concern everyone, including the political forces that today celebrate the ruling, because it further reduces the already limited margins of autonomy for governments and parliaments in shaping the normative and administrative direction of the migration phenomenon.

“The Court’s decision weakens policies aimed at countering mass illegal immigration and defending national borders. The Italian Government, for the 10 months remaining until the EU migration pact takes effect, will not cease to seek every possible solution, technical or normative, to protect the safety of citizens.”

Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini called the ruling “another slap in the face to our country’s national sovereignty, yet another incentive for limitless landings, yet another confirmation not only of the uselessness but also of the harmfulness of European institutions of this kind, which are paid for by Italian citizens who, however, are constantly humiliated.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/05/2025 - 02:00

The Whopping Lie Behind Huge, New Pension Liability Imposed By Springfield On Chicago

The Whopping Lie Behind Huge, New Pension Liability Imposed By Springfield On Chicago

By Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

Which is worse, financial malfeasance or a flagrant lie to justify it?  Take your pick. Both are nothing short of astonishing when it comes to Gov. JB Pritzker’s signature Friday on a bill hiking benefits for two of Chicago’s pensions that already had been bled nearly dry.

A City of Chicago actuarial analysis of the bill says the change “would increase the city’s pension liabilities by more than $11 billion across the Police and Fire funds,” the Chicago Tribune reported, while dropping the funding levels of both down to less than 18%.

Those funds were already desperately underfunded, having had only 25% of the money necessary to pay out pension benefits for work already performed. They have the lowest funded ratios for local pension plans in the country.

They are so poorly funded that their combined unfunded liabilities are larger than 43 states — including New York, Michigan, and Florida, according to a recent study. If Chicago does nothing and lets its pension problem continue, then “Chicago becoming the next Detroit is not just a possibility — it’s inevitable.” That’s from an op-ed last week by a former chief financial officer of the city.

So, what does the state, which makes the law for city pensions, do about it? It expanded benefits while providing no funding source. Next year alone, Chicago will have to come up with an extra $60 million on its $1.5 billion pension tab in 2027, and that increase will grow to more than $753 million for 2055. That’s according to the city’s actuarial analysis, but the state didn’t even bother do its own actuarial analysis on the cost.

What possible excuse does the state have for the new law?

According to the bill’s sponsor and Pritzker, the benefit spike was needed to bring the city’s Tier 2 pensions into compliance with federal law that essentially requires benefits at least equal to what Social Security provides. Sen. Robert Martwick (D-Chicago) was the sponsor, and that claim of his was echoed by Pritzker when he signed the bill.

Gov. JB Pritzker and Sen. Robert Martwick

Here is what Pritzker’s spokesman said: “The legislation codifies adjustments the city of Chicago has been implementing over the years to tackle pension system challenges and represents a proactive step to prevent more significant financial or legal issues in the future.”

That’s unquestionably a reference to the alleged Tier 2 problem under federal law.

But it’s a big, fat lie to claim the pension spike was required by federal law. The supposed federal problem is just a subterfuge for another benefit increase.

Not one Illinois Tier 2 state or local pensioner has ever been identified whose benefits are too low under federal law. The problem has turned out to be a theoretical one that might arise in the future, but requires no action today beyond a minor, inexpensive safeguard.

That far less expensive alternative was already blessed by the state for its own pensions, which are much bigger than Chicago’s. In recent legislation the state authorized a $75 million reserve fund to cover any additional benefits that might be required for particular pensioners if their benefits ever fell short of federal requirements. Common sense prevailed, for once, as we wrote about that measure. We’ve long been calling for that measure or something similar, with articles here, here, here, here and here.

The availability of that far cheaper alternative is one reason why every major independent voice outside of Springfield said Pritzker should have vetoed the new law. The Civic Federation, Commercial Club, Better Government Association, Chicago Tribune editorial board all wanted a veto. Even Democratic Comptroller Susanna Mendoza criticized it, and  Chicago Chief Financial Officer Jill Jaworski said, “This is adding to the city’s burden at literally the worst possible time,” and she called the bill an unfunded mandate foisted on the city by state lawmakers.

That’s exactly what it is – an unfunded mandate foisted on the city.

In fairness, another rationale offered by the bill’s supporters is that it will set level benefits for the two Chicago pensions with other police and fire pensions downstate.

Yes, ideally, consistency would be nice, but that’s a luxury Chicago simply cannot afford. Somebody apparently needs a lecture on what “you have no money” means. For that, I have a suggestion. Pritzker and our lawmakers should be forced to watch this wonderful clip of a financial advisor trying to explain it to Walter Matthau’s character in A New Leaf. Like Pritzker, that character is a trust fund recipient.

Gov. Pritzker and you other lawmakers, please watch it closely. Maybe you’ll eventually get it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 23:25

DOJ To Present Russiagate Hoax To A Grand Jury For Criminal Charges

DOJ To Present Russiagate Hoax To A Grand Jury For Criminal Charges

Via Headline USA,

Attorney General Pam Bondi has directed that the Justice Department move forward with a probe into the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation, following the recent release of documents about collusion between the Obama administration and the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign.

Bondi has directed a prosecutor to present evidence to a grand jury after referrals from the Trump administration’s top intelligence official, a person familiar with the matter said Monday.

Fox News first reported the development.

It was not clear which former officials might be the target of any grand jury activity, where the grand jury that might ultimately hear evidence will be located or which prosecutors — whether career employees or political appointees — might be involved in pursuing the investigation.

It was also not clear what precise claims of misconduct Trump administration officials believe could form the basis of criminal charges, which a grand jury would have to sign off on for an indictment to be issued.

In one batch of documents released last month, Gabbard disclosed emails showing that senior Obama administration officials were aware in 2016 that Russians had not hacked state election systems to manipulate the votes in Trump’s favor.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, the Republican chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, also released a set of emails last week. 

The emails were part of a classified annex of a report issued in 2023 by John Durham, the special counsel who was appointed during the first Trump administration to hunt for any government misconduct during the Russia investigation.

According to the annex, an FBI informer identified as “TI” provided the bureau in 2016 with two intelligence reports, which described “confidential conversations” between then-Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz and two people at the George Soros-funded Open Society Foundation: Leonard Bernardo and Jeffrey Goldstein.

The report said that then-President Barack Obama didn’t want Hillary’s scandal to taint his legacy.

Accordingly, “To solve the problem, the President puts pressure on FBI Director James Comey through Attorney General Lynch, however, so far without concrete results.”

The same report also said that Comey favored Republicans, and that the FBI didn’t have any evidence against Clinton—because she deleted her emails.

While the FBI informant’s intelligence wasn’t corroborated at the time, the FBI indeed closed its investigation into Clinton without recommending charges.

Republicans have particularly focused on a July 27, 2016, email in Durham’s newly declassified annex that claimed that Hillary Clinton had approved a plan during the heat of the campaign to link Trump with Russia.

Durham’s own report took pain to note that investigators had not corroborated the communications as authentic and said the best assessment was that the message was “a composites of several emails” the Russians had obtained from hacking.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/04/2025 - 23:00

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