Futures Slide After Nvidia Chip Export Curbs Slam Tech Stocks

US equity futures are lower after NVDA unveiled the US government restricted export of its H2) chips to China, sending the stock -6% lower pre-market and dragging the broader market lower; Europe chip giant ASML Holding NV reported disappointing results further denting the semi space. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.7%, and Nasdaq futures slide 1.5%, with the balance of Mag7 and Semis, all weaker (AMD -6.2%, AVGO -3.3%). Futures had been even lower overnight but bounced shortly after 4am ET after China said to be open to trade talks with some preconditions, including (i) consistency of message and respectful approach; (ii) one person to negotiate that is not Trump but has his authority; with the goal of having a signable agreement before the leaders meet in person. Bond yields are mixed as the curve twists steeper while USD weakness continues, sending the Bloomberg dollar index to a 6 month low. Commodities are rallying today with all 3 complexes higher; WTI crude oil futures are up about 1%, gold futures more than 2%, extending their recent advance. Precious is standing out to the upside, with gold hitting a new record high above $3300. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales.

In premarket trading, Nvidia was the biggest drag for Magnificent Seven stocks after Trump’s administration banned the chip giant from selling its H20 chip in China (Nvidia -6.3%, Tesla -2%, Meta 1.9%, Apple -0.8%, Amazon -1%, Alphabet -2.1% and Microsoft -0.9%). Semiconductor stocks are weighed down after ASML reported quarterly bookings well below estimates (AMD -6.8%, Broadcom -3.8%, Micron -3.7%, Marvell Technology -3.6%, ASML ADRs -4.5%). United Airlines (UAL) climbs 7% after the carrier Tuesday said it expects an adjusted profit of $11.50 to $13.50 a share if the current environment remains stable; But full-year earnings would drop to as little as $7 a share if the US economy enters a recession (peers rise: Delta Air Lines (DAL) +3.2%, American Airlines (AAL) +2.8%). Here are some other notable movers:

• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) drops 8% after the broker’s first-quarter earnings fell short of expectations, with analysts attributing the EPS miss to a slide in net interest income and higher expenses. Peer Robinhood (HOOD) declines 4%
• JB Hunt (JBHT) falls 6% after the trucker reported revenue in multiple segments that fell short of consensus estimates.
• MP Materials (MP) rises 2.9% and TMC the Metals Co. (TMC) gains 3% after President Trump launched a probe into the need for tariffs on critical minerals, the latest action in an expanding trade war that has targeted key sectors of the global economy.
• Omnicom (OMC) slips 2.4% after the advertising company reported quarterly revenue that came in slightly under expectations.
• REV Group (REVG) falls 3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the manufacturer of specialty vehicles on tariff risk
• Hertz (HTZ) jumps 21% after Pershing Square Capital Management disclosed a 12.7 million share stake in Hertz. Stake value amounts to about $46.5 million

Markets were setting up for another overnight rout after the US government informed Nvidia on Monday that its H20 chip would require a license to export to China “for the indefinite future.” The new rules address Washington’s concerns that “the covered products may be used in, or diverted to, a supercomputer in China,” the company said in a filing. Nvidia warned it will report about $5.5 billion in writedowns during the current quarter, tied to inventory and commitments for the chip.

“This move is unnerving for two reasons,” said Vishnu Varathan, Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, referring to the Nvidia curbs. “First, it conveys the mercurial nature of Trump tariffs in so far that it has revoked earlier concessions extended to Nvidia. Second, this also suggests that the US-China undercurrents are rather abusive, even as there appears to be some calm on the surface.”

However, stocks pared some of the losses in the morning session on signs China may be open to negotiations with the US, sparking some optimism over the possibility of easing trade tensions. China said it wants a number of steps from President Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to talks, including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of his cabinet, according to a person familiar with the Chinese government’s thinking. 

“We’re keeping a defensive stance during this period of uncertainty while being increasingly cautious on tech stocks and industries which have a high share of their value chain exposed to China,” said Francois Antomarchi, a fund manager at Degroof Petercam Asset Management. “There’s the question of knowing when we hit the bottom, geopolitically speaking, of the trade war, and I’m not sure we’re there yet.”

The US government informed Nvidia on Monday that its H20 chip would require a license to export to China “for the indefinite future.” The new rules address Washington’s concerns that “the covered products may be used in, or diverted to, a supercomputer in China,” the company said in a filing. Nvidia warned it will report about $5.5 billion in writedowns during the current quarter, tied to inventory and commitments for the chip.
“This move is unnerving for two reasons,” said Vishnu Varathan, Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, referring to the Nvidia curbs. “First, it conveys the mercurial nature of Trump tariffs in so far that it has revoked earlier concessions extended to Nvidia. Second, this also suggests that the US-China undercurrents are rather abusive, even as there appears to be some calm on the surface.”

Meanwhile, UK bonds rallied after inflation eased more than expected in March, spurring increased bets from traders on Bank of England interest rates.  

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to give a speech later in the day, and investors will be watching March retail sales data for a reading of consumer sentiment before the tariff turmoil.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 pares its drop to 0.9%, technology and financial services shares are the worst-performers, while utilities and telecommunications stocks are the biggest gainers. Tech sentiment was further dented by ASML, whose first-quarter orders missed estimates. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Sartorius shares rise as much as 9.4% after the German lab equipment maker reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter
• Heineken shares gain as much as 3.5%, the most since April 10, after the Dutch brewer’s earnings. Analysts see a beat on Q1 volumes and sales, solid delivery in key markets, and guidance that helped offset FX concerns
• European oil and gas producers drop as much as 1.4%, snapping a two-day winning streak, as crude prices extend their decline
• Bunzl shares plunge as much as 27%, marking a record drop, after the value-added distributor cut its annual guidance due to challenges in North America and paused its share buyback
• EQT shares slide as much as 8.5% as the Swedish investment firm’s cautious guidance on exits and valuations tempers enthusiasm despite a generally solid first-quarter earnings update
• ASML shares drop as much as 7.6% after the chip-equipment maker reported quarterly bookings well below estimates, a sign of weakness in customer demand
• Straumann shares fall as much as 5.3%, worst performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Wednesday, after UBS cut its price target on the stock to a Street-low, citing the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc
• Antofagasta falls as much as 2.7% in London after the miner reported copper production for the first quarter 2025 that was 23% lower versus prior comparable period
• WH Smith shares drop as much as 3.3% after UBS said the retailer is closing far more stores than previously expected this year, while others warned a foreign-exchange headwind could also hit consensus estimates
• XPS Pensions shares fall as much as 5.2%, the most since April 7, after the UK benefits consultaning firm issued a trading update which Shore Capital says slightly beat expectations but leaves little room for upward revisions

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped, driven by technology shares following new restrictions on exports of Nvidia’s H20 chips to China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.4%, with TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent among the major drags. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index led losses among major regional gauges, falling 2.6% on worries around escalation of US-China tensions. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea also fell.
The latest Nvidia curbs shook investor confidence again after recent signs of stabilization around President Donald Trump’s tariff war. Sentiment was also hurt by disappointing results from Dutch chip-equipment maker ASML and a US probe into the need for levies on critical minerals. Chinese onshore shares eked out small gains toward the end of the day. Some investors remain optimistic on the nation’s efforts to bolster its economy and tech industry. China earlier reported a set of upbeat economic data. Investors will be also be watching for any signs of a cooling in US-Sino tensions.

“Asian stocks found it hard to muster much in the way of forward progress today with the Nvidia news,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade in Sydney. “There is a reliance on the H20 chip from big name players in the Asian tech space, so any moves which could impact supply will be a drag on the broader sector.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.5% having earlier fell to a six-month low. The Swiss franc outperforms on haven demand although has pared gains to 0.8% amid the bounce in stocks. The euro also adds 0.8% against the greenback. The pound adds 0.3% to around $1.327. 

In rates, treasuries are mixed with outperformance seen in shorter-dated maturities as US two-year yields drop 3 bps to 3.82% and long-dated tenors little changed to cheaper, trailing gains for European bonds after benign UK inflation data. Treasury yields pivot around a little-changed 10-year sector with longer-dated tenors marginally cheaper, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s curves by about 3bp; 10-year is near 4.33% with bunds and gilts in the sector about 3bp richer on the day. Gilts outperform their European peers after UK inflation rose less than forecast in March, with UK 10-year borrowing costs falling nearly 3 bps to 4.62%.  Treasury auctions resume with $13 billion 20-year bond second reopening at 1pm New York. WI yield near 4.83% is ~20bp cheaper than last month’s first reopening, which stopped through by 1.4bp. US session includes March retail sales data, a speech by Fed Chair Powell and a 20-year bond auction.

In commodities, oil prices erased an earlier decline after the report that China is potentially open to trade talks with the US. Bullion gained as much as 2.7% to climb above $3,300 an ounce for the first time, surpassing the previous record set on Monday. Bitcoin is steady just below $84,000.

The US economic calendar includes March retail sales and April New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), March industrial production (9:15am), February business inventories and April NAHB housing market index (10am) and February TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (12pm), Powell (1:30pm) and Schmid, Logan (7pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.6%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.8%
• DAX -0.5%
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.32%
• VIX +1.5 points at 31.57
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.5% at 1227.95
• euro +0.8% at $1.1374
• WTI crude +1.1% at $62/barrel

Top Overnight News

• NVDA (-6% pre mkt) filed an 8K last night revealing a more stringent set of export rules around its H20 chip. According to the filing, Nvidia will now require an export license from the US gov’t to sell H20 chips to China and D5 countries (this license requirement will stay in effect for the indefinite future). Nvidia warns it will book up to ~$5.5B in charges in FQ1 related to the H20 because of this requirement. FT
• White House plans aggressive campaign to isolate China economically by forcing countries to limit their dealings w/Beijing in exchange for reduced American tariffs. WSJ
• Japan is set to be the first nation to have trade talks with the US, people familiar with the situation said the US had signalled priorities for the talks, including LNG imports, Boosting Market access to Ags and Japanese auto legislation: FT
• There is more talk in the media about the White House potentially forcing Chinese firms to delist from American stock exchanges. WSJ   
• China is open to talks w/the US but first wants Trump and his administration to show more respect, articulate a consistent position toward Beijing, and appoint a single individual empowered to negotiate. BBG
• China unexpectedly appointed a new int’l trade rep on Wed, installing a fresh person to lead negotiations w/the US (the change could signal that Beijing is hoping to make a breakthrough in talks w/Washington). SCMP
• China’s economic data comes in ahead of expectations, including Q1 GDP (+5.4% vs. the Street +5.2%), Mar retail sales (+5.9% vs. the Street +4.3%), and Mar industrial production (+7.7% vs. the Street +5.9%). RTRS
• BOJ likely to downgrade its growth forecast at the upcoming meeting due to fallout from Trump’s trade war. RTRS
• UAL reported strong Q1 EPS upside at 91c (vs. the Street 74c) w/the beat driven largely by healthy margins (adjusted pre-tax margins rose 360bp Y/Y to 3%) while sales were mostly inline (revenue rose 5.4% w/capacity +4.9% and RASM +0.5%). RTRS
• Donald Trump’s tariffs are forcing private equity groups to pause their dealmaking and focus on managing their existing portfolio companies, in a stark reversal of earlier expectations for a boom in activity under the new administration. FT

Chipmakers

• NVIDIA (NVDA) expects USD 5.5bln in charges in Q1 FY2026 related to H20 products after the US informed the Co. it requires a licence to export those chips to China.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) reportedly did not inform some of its major customers about the new US export restrictions for China-focused H20 chip after the Co. received notice of them, via Reuters citing sources; received around USD 18bln of orders for H20 chips YTD.
• US chip equipment makers calculated that Trump administration tariffs could cost them more than USD 1bln a year, with tariffs estimated to cost Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX) and KLA Corp (KLAC) USD 350mln each annually, according to Reuters sources.

China

• China is said to be open to talks if US President Trump shows respect, via Bloomberg sources; China wants Trump to rein in cabinet members and show consistency; wants US talks to address concerns on Taiwan and sanctions "The most important precondition for any talks is that Chinese officials need to know such engagement will be conducted with respect" The source said Trump has been relatively dovish when speaking publicly about Chinese President Xi, but other members of his administration have been more hawkish, leaving officials in Beijing unsure of the States' position.
• US President Trump said, when talking on the tariff pause, that they may want countries to choose between the US or China.
• US intends to use tariff negotiations to isolate China with officials planning to use the negotiations of more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries, according to WSJ.
• White House Press Secretary said President Trump messaged that the ball is in China's court and that they don't have to make a deal with them but Trump is open to a deal with China.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the choppy and rangebound performance on Wall St. amid mixed data releases and as trade frictions lingered, while the mostly better-than-expected Chinese GDP and activity data failed to inspire a bid. ASX 200 clawed back losses amid strength in gold miners, consumer staples and financial but with gains limited by weakness in miners including Rio Tinto which reported a drop in quarterly iron production and shipments. Nikkei 225 trickled lower to beneath the 34,000 level amid the ongoing global trade war concerns and despite encouraging Machinery Orders. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed amid US-China trade frictions the US said to intend to use tariff negotiations with other countries to isolate China and will also require a licence for NVIDIA to export H20 processors to China, while mostly better-than-expected GDP and activity data from China failed to inspire given that they were from a period before the US-China tariff escalation.

Top Asian News

• BoJ said to cut 2025 growth forecast in its quarterly Report, according to Reuters sources; no consensus within the BoJ on the extent of Trump tariff damage
• China's MOFCOM issued an action plan to promote service consumption which covers areas including catering, tourism and leisure, while it will support the expansion of sectors including catering, accommodation, health, culture, entertainment and tourism. Furthermore, the plan will focus on coordinating domestic and international dual circulation and insist on exerting efforts on both supply and demand, as well as provide strong support for high-quality economic development.
• China's stats bureau deputy commissioner said the unfavourable impact of the international environment on China's economy is deepening, protectionism is rapidly rising globally and the world economic order has been severely damaged. The official said they resolutely oppose US tariffs which are against economic rules and WTO rules, as well as noted that high US tariffs will bring about some pressures on China's trade and economy. However, the deputy commissioner also commented that Q1 data underscores China's strong resilience and potential, while the official added that macroeconomic policies will become more proactive this year and that China has a rich policy toolkit to support the economy.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said they may need a policy response but will decide appropriately in line with changing developments when asked about a BoJ response if US tariff policy puts downward pressure on Japan's economy, while they will scrutinise without any preconception impact of US tariff policy on Japan's economy which is already affecting corporate and household confidence. Furthermore, Ueda said from February onwards, risks surrounding US tariff policy have moved closer towards the bad scenario the BoJ envisioned and noted the BoJ sees both upside and downside risks to the price outlook, according to Sankei.
• Japan's NHK Spring (5991 JT) is to reconsider plans to cut auto parts production in the US, in response to tariffs, according to Nikkei.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) opened on the backfoot, continuing the mostly subdued APAC session. A quiet significant pick-up off lows was seen following a Bloomberg report which noted that China is open to talks if US President Trump shows respect – nonetheless, indices still reside in the red. Sentiment today has been hit due to several factors; 1) US President Trump ordering investigations into critical minerals, 2) NVIDIA expecting USD 5.5bln hit amid US export controls, 3) Latest White House Fact Sheet suggested China now faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions. (awaiting clarity), 4) poor ASML results. European sectors hold a defensive bias, in-fitting with the risk tone. Tech is by far the clear underperformer, with downside today driven by losses in post-earning losses in ASML and NVIDIA export control updates. Autos & Parts and Basic Resources are also on the backfoot given the risk tone.

Top European News

• US President Trump signed a healthcare executive order seeking changes to the US Medicare drug price negotiation process and signed an order restoring common sense to federal procurement by simplifying the process, while the order aims to simplify and streamline federal acquisition regulation.
• A dozen US House GOP members have said no to big Medicaid cuts, according to Punchbowl News.

FX

• USD is softer across the board after a session of slight gains yesterday with the dollar struggling in the current risk environment. Focus remains on the trade war with the White House stating that over 15 trade deal proposals are being considered and some could be announced soon. In recent trade, the USD was provided a modest boost after a more conciliatory report from Bloomberg that China is said to be open to talks if US President Trump "shows respect". Ahead, US Retail Sales and commentary via Fed Chair Powell. DXY is back below the 100 mark and briefly slipped below Tuesday's low at 99.47.
• EUR is firmer vs. the USD and one of the better performers across G10 FX. Fresh macro drivers for the Eurozone have been lacking during today's session after Tuesday's saw woeful ZEW metrics and reports that there has been little progress in trade negotiations between the EU and US. EUR/USD briefly breached Tuesday's best at 1.1378 but ran out of steam ahead of 1.14, topping out at 1.1392.
• JPY has retreated beneath the 143.00 level with flows into the yen amid the downbeat risk tone and after Machinery Orders topped forecasts. Elsewhere, comments from BoJ Governor Ueda failed to have any material sway on the Yen with the policymaker noting the Bank may need a policy response but will decide appropriately in line with changing developments, adding that the BoJ sees both upside and downside risks to the price outlook. USD/JPY has delved as low as 142.05.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers considering the current risk tone and after a solid showing during Tuesday's European session. Support from better-than-expected Chinese GDP proved to be temporary given the consensus view that growth is set to slow in the coming months on account of the trade war with the US.
• CAD is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser degree than peers. Yesterday saw softer-than-expected Canadian inflation data which failed to have a sustained impact on pricing for today's BoC rate decision which sees an unchanged rate at around 60% vs. a 25bps cut at 40%.
• Support from better-than-expected Chinese GDP proved to be fleeting for the Yuan with desks dismissing the data as stale and warning of further headwinds to come. In recent trade, USD/CNH was knocked lower by a report in Bloomberg that China is said to be open to talks if US President Trump "shows respect".

Fixed Income

• USTs incrementally firmer and deriving some haven demand from the NVIDIA & ASML updates. However, USTs are failing to benefit to the same degree as core peers across the pond. Most recently, USTs were knocked by around 10 ticks by a Bloomberg source report that China is open to trade talks with the US, but that they have a number of pre-conditions to this; full details on the feed. Whilst the risk-off mood continues to remain at play, the downside in USTs has continued to extend, and more recently has taken US paper to just above the unchanged mark. Ahead, US Retail Sales, Fed Chair Powell and US supply.
• Bunds began bid, as the risk tone has been chipped away by updates from NVIDIA & ASML. Developments specifically for the bloc have been a little light, final inflation data from Italy subject to a modest revision lower but spurred no reaction. Bunds trimmed roughly 30 ticks following the Bloomberg/China reporting, and extended lower into a 2052 & 2056 Bund auction - but no real move on it.
• Gilts initially firmer start to the session given the risk-off tone after NVIDIA’s update and exacerbated by ASML. Further bullish impetus for Gilts came from UK CPI. Altogether, this caused the benchmark to gap higher by 43 ticks and then extend 25 more to a 92.32 peak. The CPI series was cooler-than-expected overall and will be welcomed by those on Threadneedle St. and has seen the odds of a 25bps cut in May tick up to near-enough fully priced vs a c. 80% chance pre-release. Most recently, as outlined above, the risk tone has seen a marked recovery on the China-trade report. A recovery which weighed on Gilts back to the 92.00 mark though the benchmark remains well into the green and is the clear outperformer across the core space.
• Spread for the new Italian 7yr BTP set at +13bps, 30yr I/L set at +36bps, via Reuters citing leads.
• UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt; b/c 3.84x, average yield 3.631%.

Commodities

• Crude spent most of the European session in the red, but those losses have since reversed after Bloomberg reported (citing sources) that China is said to be open to talks if US President Trump shows respect. Elsewhere, the mostly better-than-expected GDP and activity data from China failed to inspire given that they were from a period before the US-China tariff escalation. WTI resides in a USD 60.44-61.55/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 64.90-64.31/bbl parameter.
• Firm price action across spot gold and silver amid the risk aversion caused by the aforementioned factors - namely the worsening trade landscape. Spot gold mounted USD 3,300/oz for the first time ever, with momentum continuing - with today's range currently USD 3,230.68-3,317.92/oz.
• Base metals are softer across the board amid the overall downbeat sentiment across the markets amid the aforementioned reasons. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,030.00-9,125.15/t range.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.4mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -3.2mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline -3.0mln (exp. -1.6mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
• OPEC states that Russia has to compensate for 691k BPD of overproduction.

Geopolitics

• Israel's army said it bombed Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US President Trump held a meeting on Tuesday morning in the White House situation room about the ongoing nuclear deal negotiations with Iran, according to two sources with direct knowledge cited by Axios.

US event calendar

• 7:00 am: Apr 11 MBA Mortgage Applications -8.5%, prior 20%
• 8:30 am: Mar Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 1.35%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Mar Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
• 9:15 am: Mar Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.7%
• 9:15 am: Mar Capacity Utilization, est. 77.9%, prior 78.2%
• 10:00 am: Feb Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 37.5, prior 39
• 4:00 pm: Feb Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior -45.2b
• 4:00 pm: Feb Total Net TIC Flows, prior -48.8b

Central Banks

• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Hammack Speaks in Moderated Q&A
• 1:30 pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks to Economic Club of Chicago
• 7:00 pm: Fed’s Schmid Chats With Fed’s Logan on Economy, Banking

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a strong start to the week, the market mood turned more negative again yesterday, as tensions between the US and China showed signs of further escalation. That meant the S&P 500 (-0.17%) posted a modest decline, and futures on the index are down another -0.90% this morning, which follows the news that the US had imposed restrictions on Nvidia’s chip exports to China. On top of that, Trump also launched a probe into whether critical minerals should face tariffs, so that added to fears that further tariffs were on the horizon. So after a brief period of greater stability in markets, that reminded investors about the ongoing risks of escalation, raising fears that the trade war could still get worse from here.

Those concerns about further trade restrictions came on several fronts yesterday. In terms of the Nvidia story, the administration placed new restrictions on the export of Nvidia’s H20 chips to China, which had actually been designed to comply with earlier US export restrictions. As a result, Nvidia said it will report $5.5bn in write downs due to the new rules. Meanwhile, in another sign that the US-China trade war moving beyond tariffs, Bloomberg reported earlier yesterday that China ordered its airlines to halt any deliveries of Boeing jets and purchases of US aircraft equipment. So while there had been optimism after the weekend news on tariff exemptions for electronics, there’s been no sign since of either the US or China backing down and yesterday the White House commented that “The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them”.

Elsewhere, there was also little sign of the US coming to an agreement with the EU, as Bloomberg reported that the EU-US trade negotiations made little progress. The article said that Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s trade chief, left the talks struggling to determine what the US was aiming for, and also that US officials indicated the tariffs would not be removed outright. So again, this pushed back on the more positive narrative around the weekend, which was generally in the direction of more exemptions on the tariffs (e.g. smartphones) and lots of discussions with trading partners.

With the overnight news, that’s meant Asian markets are struggling this morning, with losses for the Nikkei (-0.86%), the Hang Seng (-2.53%), the CSI 300 (-0.93%), and the KOSPI (-0.66%). Tech stocks have been particularly impacted, and the Hang Seng Tech index is down -4.53%, whilst futures on the NASDAQ 100 are down -1.54%. But it’s not just equities that have been impacted, as fears of an escalation have spread to other asset classes once again. For instance, the dollar index has fallen -0.48% this morning, and gold prices (+1.35%) have surged to another record high of $3,274/oz. Long-end Treasury yields have also crept up a bit, with the 30yr yield (+0.8bps) posting a most gain to 4.79%.

Those overnight losses happened despite a strong Q1 GDP print out of China. However, like a lot of economic data right now, the Q1 numbers aren’t too much of a focus for markets, as they don’t take into account the reciprocal tariff impact, so we’ll have to wait a few weeks before we get concrete numbers on that. Nevertheless, Q1 GDP was up +5.4% year-on-year (vs. +5.2% expected), the same pace as Q4. Moreover, the March activity data was also above consensus, with retail sales up +5.9% year-on-year (vs. +4.3% expected), and industrial production up +7.7% year-on-year (vs. +5.9% expected).

Ahead of the latest trade news, the S&P 500 (-0.17%) was fairly stable, although the index gave up much stronger gains at the open, when it had peaked at +0.82% intraday. The initial optimism was supported by decent earnings releases and the lack of further trade news, which added to growing hopes that the US could still avoid a recession this year. So most assets kept unwinding their tariff-related moves, and by the close, US HY spreads were still -4bps tighter, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield fell back -4.1bps to 4.33%. Even the dollar index (+0.53%) recovered some ground, ending a run of 5 consecutive declines.

In terms of the session, there was a reasonable amount of sectoral divergence. Financials outperformed, with Bank of America (+3.60%) and Citigroup (+1.76%) both seeing strong advances after their earnings results. However, the Magnificent 7 (-0.55%) continued to drag on the rest of the S&P, falling back for a second day running, while Boeing fell by -2.36% following the reporting on China’s pullback. By contrast, European equities put in a much stronger performance, and the STOXX 600 (+1.63%) just about managed to move back into positive YTD territory, now up +0.09% since the start of the year. We even saw the VIX index (-0.77pts) fall back for a third day running to 30.12, although it picked up towards the end of the session, having fallen beneath the 30 mark on an intraday basis at one point.

Meanwhile on the rates side, the Treasury rally saw the 10yr yield (-4.0bps) fall back to 4.34%, with the 30yr yield (-3.1bps) down to 4.78%. Moreover, US Treasuries outperformed their European counterparts, where yields on 10yr bunds (+2.3bps), OATs (+2.2bps) and BTPs (+3.8bps) all moved higher. So again, that unwound one of last week’s big moves, which was a huge widening in the 10yr UST-bund spread, but that tightened again for a second day running. The outperformance of Treasuries was supported by comments from Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender that officials were investigating potential changes to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio regulation, which could allow banks to buy more Treasuries. In the meantime, US credit spreads also tightened, with HY spreads down -4bps to 405bps, whilst IG spreads came down -1bp to 111bps.

Finally, looking at yesterday’s data, there was a huge slump in the German ZEW survey’s expectations measure. The component fell back to -14.0 (vs. +10.0 expected), which was a big reversal after its surge the previous month, and also brings it down to its lowest since July 2023. Separately in Canada, the latest CPI reading surprised on the downside, with headline CPI falling to +2.3% (vs +2.7% expected). And in the UK, the number of payrolled employees fell by -78k in March (vs. -15k expected).

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for March, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for April. In the UK, we’ll also get the March CPI reading. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, as well as the Fed’s Hammack and Schmid. There’s also a policy decision from the Bank of Canada.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 08:34

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $734.9 billion, up 1.4 percent from the previous month, and up 4.6 percent from March 2024. ... The January 2025 to February 2025 percent change was unrevised from up 0.2 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 1.7% in March.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 5.2% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in March were slightly above expectations, and sales in January and February were revised up, combined.

ASML Misses On Orders As CEO Warns Of Trade War; Analysts Call Results "Disappointing" 

Nasdaq 100 futures declined 1.5% early Wednesday, driven by renewed pressure on semiconductor stocks. Nvidia fell about 6% in pre-market trading following the Trump administration's move to block exports of its H20 AI chips to China. Meanwhile, shares of ASML Holding slid around 5% in European trading after the company delivered a weaker-than-expected earnings report, casting a dark shadow over the near-term outlook for the global semiconductor industry amid mounting economic pressures from the trade war.  

Dutch chip equipment maker ASML, which designs and manufactures lithography systems for Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, reported bookings of 3.94 billion euros in the first quarter, missing the average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg of 4.82 billion euros. ASML pointed out that order intake for EUV machines is a "lumpy" metric and doesn't accurately reflect momentum in the industry. 

The key takeaway for the 1Q25 earnings: ASML delivered mixed results, with better-than-expected margins and earnings offset by a sharp decline in bookings. The results suggest solid near-term performance but growing demand uncertainty as the artificial intelligence bubble was 'DeepSeeked' earlier this year, plus mounting macroeconomic headwinds from deepening trade wars already filtering into main shipping channels between Asia and the U.S. 

Here's a snapshot of the first quarter earnings: 

Bookings EU3.94 billion, -44% q/q, estimate EU4.82 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Net sales EU7.74 billion, -16% q/q, estimate EU7.75 billion

• Net system sales EU5.74 billion, estimate EU5.69 billion
• Net service & field operation sales EU2.00 billion, estimate EU2.1 billion

Gross margin 54% vs. 51.7% q/q, estimate 52.5%

R&D expenses EU1.16 billion, estimate EU1.14 billion

Operating income EU2.74 billion, estimate EU2.65 billion

Operating margin 35.4%, estimate 33.9%

Net income EU2.36 billion, -13% q/q, estimate EU2.24 billion

Cash and other EU9.10 billion, -29% q/q, estimate EU12.21 billion

Total lithography systems sold 77 units, estimate 100.62

ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the company's quarterly earnings statement that ongoing customer discussions reinforce the company's expectation that both 2025 and 2026 will be years of growth.

"However, the recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment," Fouquet warned. 

ASML's 2025 financial guidance remains unchanged, but that could change if trade wars deepen... 

Second Quarter Forcast: 

• Sees net sales EU7.2 billion to EU7.7 billion, estimate EU7.66 billion

• Sees gross margin 50% to 53%, estimate 52.3%

• Sees R&D expenses about EU1.2 billion, estimate EU1.16 billion

Full Year Forecast: 

• Still sees gross margin 51% to 53%, estimate 52.1%

• Still sees net sales EU30 billion to EU35 billion, estimate EU32.59 billion

Commenting on the results, Citi analyst Andrew Gardiner told clients that ASML's first-quarter orders were "disappointing," with tariff-related uncertainty "clouding" the outlook. However, he noted that the reaffirmed full-year guidance and the company's expectation of continued growth into 2026 offer investors a partial sigh of relief.

Barclays analyst Simon Coles told clients that ASML would need to hit 3 to 5 billion euros of orders each quarter for the next 3 to 5 quarters to hit consensus expectations: "This seems manageable but our worry is two major customers are unlikely to be ordering significantly any time soon." 

Here are Goldman analysts Alexander Duval and Anant Jakhar's first take on the first quarter results:

ASML's 1Q25 revenue was in-line but EBIT was above Visible Alpha Consensus Data, driven by higher gross profits which benefited from a higher share of 3800E tools in the mix (which have higher ASP) and customer specific performance target rewards. The company's bookings figure in 1Q was €3.9bn, (down qoq from a very strong 4Q24 order intake of €7.1bn and below Visible Alpha Consensus Data of c.€4.8bn), including €1.2bn of EUV orders (below cons estimate of €1.6bn). As such, we note that the 1Q25 order intake of €3.9bn is higher than the order run-rate needed (c.€3-4bn) to hit the 2026 cons estimate. Importantly the company shipped another High NA tool in the quarter which could be taken positively by investors. The company acknowledged macro uncertainty but sees AI as the main driver of its market. Furthermore, the company stated that based on its discussions with customers it sees both 2025 and 2026 to be growth years. The company introduced its 2Q25 net sales guidance of around €7.2-7.7bn and expects 2Q25 gross margins to be around 50-53% (a wider range to reflect macro uncertainty) implying revenue/gross profit/EBIT that is 4%/6%/10% below cons. Further, ASML reiterated its 2025 guidance and expects sales of €30-35bn, with gross margins of 51-53%. Additionally, we note that ASML's 2Q25 guide for GM includes a certain degree of dilution from ramp of high NA but the company remains on track to deliver its FY25 GM target as it expects 3800E to become the main Low NA tool being shipped to customers.

In terms of end market trends, ASML expects continued strength in advanced Logic, with customers ramping 2nm technology nodes, strong memory at same level as last year, and growth in installed base management driven by more EUV. The company believes the Memory market will remain robust at the same level as last year, as confirmed by customer activity. Furthermore, we note ASML's growing Installed Base, driven by a stronger mix of EUV versus DUV. Finally, the company reiterated its LT 2030 revenue and GM guidance. More broadly, we expect investors to seek more colour of the recent tariffs on semiconductor equipment and end market demand, latest expectations for order intake from Foundry/leading-edge customers, demand dynamics in the trailing-edge end markets. Reiterate Buy.

Goldman's view:

We expect an initial mixed reaction in the shares, in light of a beat on the current quarter KPIs versus consensus, and commentary around 2025/26 to be growth years offset by below cons order intake as well as below-cons 2Q25 guide. That said, we note that ASML has underperformed by 6% vs EU Tech in the last 3 months, and is down 11% abs YTD. We expect investors to seek more colour of the recent tariffs on semiconductor equipment and end market demand, latest expectations for order intake from Foundry/leading-edge customers, demand dynamics in the trailing-edge end markets.

Goldman = Buy-Rated ASML: 

We are Buy rated on ASML with a 12-month price target of €1,010 based on a 32x CY26E P/E multiple. Key risks to our view and price target include EUV delays, capex cyclicality and unfavourable market share shifts.

More institutional commentary on the first quarter results and outlook: 

Stifel (hold)

• 2Q guidance is soft, below consensus with a 10% miss at the Ebit level, says analyst Juergen Wagner

• Both EUV and overall orders missed estimates for 1Q; 2025 guidance was confirmed, but "with a tariff disclaimer"

• With 2Q guidance a miss, the year now looks increasingly back- end loaded

Morgan Stanley (equal-weight)

• Net bookings suggest that only six low-NA EUV tools were ordered in the March quarter, showing weakness, says analyst Lee Simpson

• Implied DUV bookings of €2.7b confirms a decent China order book

• Firm still sees AI as a key demand driver and has seen demand for 2026 starting to solidify, but it also notes potential tariff impact. Its weak 2Q guidance reflects some of this caginess

ASML's shares fell 5% to 575 euros in the early afternoon trading hours in Europe. Shares are down 42% since peaking at around 1,000 euros in mid-July last year. 

The key question is whether the deepening trade war will derail the global race for AI, or if the U.S. and China can reach a resolution in the near term to defuse the trade war bomb that could sent the global economy into a downward spiral.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 08:20

The Dollar Bubble Just Burst: Peter Schiff Warns "This Is The Collapse I've Warned About For Years"

Via SchiffGold.com,

In an interview last week on Kitco News, Peter joined Jeremy Szafron to offer his latest insights into the unraveling U.S. economy, surging gold prices, and rapid inflationary pressures. Peter explains the Fed’s precarious position, the imminent threat of a U.S.-centric financial crisis, and why he thinks we’ve already entered serious economic decline, despite the government’s denials.

Peter kicks off by noting the troubling and self-inflicted nature of the current economic turmoil, pointing directly at misguided actions by former President Trump, whose tariff policies were based on fundamentally flawed reasoning:

Well, I mean, this is something that I’ve been predicting for quite some time now. It was inevitable. I always thought it would be an external dollar crisis that would set these events in motion. I didn’t realize that we would do it to ourselves, but we have. We’ve pricked our own bubble and there’s a lot of air that’s going to come out of it. You know, Donald Trump looked at our huge trade deficits and just concluded that the trade deficits themselves were the problem and that they must be the result of foreigners cheating us and ripping us off.

As economic uncertainty has grown, gold prices have surged significantly. Peter emphasizes gold’s recent notable momentum, a rally that many investors overlooked due to their fixation with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin:

Well, gold’s up over $250 in the last three days. So we’re accelerating. Two days, the last couple of days, we were $100 a day, and maybe we’ll be up again. Maybe we’ll be up another 100 by the time they close today’s trading. But what’s happening, and what I’ve been telling people was happening all last year as the price of gold went from 2000 to 3000 and nobody cared and nobody was buying it because everybody was sidetracked by Bitcoin and all the talk about digital gold.

Turning to the inflation outlook, Peter sharply criticizes the Fed’s claims that inflation expectations remain anchored at their so-called 2% target. He argues that the actual inflation outlook is far worse than the Fed admits and set to climb higher:

Yeah, well, the year ahead inflation expectations now are 6.7%. I mean, the Fed keeps saying that long-term expectations remain anchored at 2%. What are they talking about? Nothing is anchored at 2%. We’ve been adrift for a long time and now we’re at 6.7%. And you know what? It’s going to be a lot higher than that. The Fed is completely wrong.

Peter believes the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to reverse rate hikes and resume quantitative easing (QE), but only after recognizing clear systemic deterioration. He foresees a painful and widespread economic contraction, particularly affecting employment within the service sector:

I think the Fed is eventually going to cut rates and go back to QE, but they’re waiting for everything to collapse. Because they don’t even know that it’s going to collapse. But they’re waiting for some signs that the financial system is buckled. Maybe they want to see big layoffs, which are coming. We’re going to have widespread layoffs in the United States because the whole service sector economy is going to shut down because all the imports are going to be cut off.

Finally, Peter cautions listeners that the U.S. economy is heading toward a severe crisis—one he considers far worse than the global financial crisis of 2008. Crucially, he points out that the brunt of the damage will impact America specifically, emphasizing the international shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar and American markets:

Well, I think that there is going to be a massive loss of confidence because it’s been a confidence game the entire time. But look, this is going to be a financial crisis much worse than 2008, but it’s not going to be global. It is a U.S. crisis. It’s not a global crisis. It’s actually liberation for the rest of the world because they’re going to be liberated from the burden of supporting the U.S. economy. That means more for them.

If you missed it, be sure to watch Peter’s debate tariffs with Spencer Morrison and George Gammon!

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 08:05

The post Donald Trump Wants His Backers to Have Lousy Jobs appeared first on CEPR.

 

 

I had a fun and wide-ranging conversation with Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers to unpack all of the wildest tariff news. We discuss the “uniquely unpredictable situation” where markets are trading based on the whims of a single person. This mercurial unpredictability is having a huge effect on prices.

I try to help the hosts understand investing in this environment with lessons and ideas from How NOT to Invest.

For laughs, in Slate Plus, we discuss Hugh Grant, HOAs, whether leaf blowers are a necessary evil, and why adult males in suits should not wear their high school backpacks on subways…

 

 

 

Source:
The Economy’s ‘One Guy Problem’
Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers
Slate, April 12, 2025

 

 



 

The post Slate: Economics on a Whim… appeared first on The Big Picture.

Attention Homeowners: Here's Where Your Imported Home Goods Are Actually Made

Although President Trump rolled back some reciprocal tariffs last week (ex-China), U.S. imports still face an average effective tariff rate of 27%—the highest since 1903. These elevated duties, hitting just as the spring housing and remodeling season gets underway, complicate the sourcing of overseas building materials and home goods from high-tariff countries and may even force sourcing from low-tariff countries or even domestically. 

Goldman analysts Susan Maklari, Charles Perron-Piche, and Rhea Bhatia cited United States International Trade Commission data to help clients understand where the most basic imported home goods and building materials were sourced from in 2024.

Maklari provided clients with a country-by-country breakdown of the top U.S. imports of home goods and building materials, including washers, dryers, water heaters, cabinets, vinyl tile, ceramic tile, carpets, lighting, mattresses, and lumber.

The note serves as a guide for identifying alternative sourcing options in countries with lower tariffs and a robust manufacturing base should these products be tariffed higher in top-producing countries at a cost-prohibitive rate:

Exhibit 9: Share of Washer Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 11: Share of Dryer Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 13: Share of Electric Tank Water Heater Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 15: Share of Electric Tankless Water Heater Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 17: Share of Gas Tank Water Heater Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 19: Share of Gas Tankless Water Heater Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 21: Share of Cabinet Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 23: Share of Vinyl Tile Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 25: Share of Ceramic Tile Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 27: Share of Carpet Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 29: Share of Lighting Fixture Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 31: Share of Mattress Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 33: Share of Nonwoven Glass Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 35: Share of Framing Lumber Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 37: Share of OSB Imports by Market (2024, in units)

Exhibit 39: Share of Plywood Imports by Market (2024, in units)

We wouldn't even be having this conversation if America had a robust manufacturing base capable of producing even the most basic home goods. Time to re-shore some of these supply chains.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 07:45

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 12 percent from the previous week and was 68 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved 20 basis points higher last week, abruptly slowing the pace of mortgage application activity with refinance volume dropping 12 percent and purchase volume falling 5 percent for the week. Purchase volume remains almost 13 percent above last year’s level, but economic uncertainty and the volatility in rates is likely to make at least some prospective buyers more hesitant to move forward with a purchase,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “One notable change last week was the full percentage point increase in the ARM share. Given the jump in rates, more borrowers are opting for the lower initial rates that come with an ARM, with initial fixed rates closer to 6 percent in our survey last week. The ARM share at 9.6 percent was the highest since November 2023, and this reflects the share of units. On a dollar basis, almost a quarter of the application volume last week was for ARMs, as borrowers with larger loans are even more likely to opt for an ARM.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.81 percent from 6.61 percent, with points decreasing to 0.62 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is up about 31% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 9% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased.

Europe Wants New 'Half-Fuhrer' In Ukraine, Lavrov Warns

Both the United States and Russia have been calling for new elections in Ukraine, also after President Putin has branded Zelensky as 'illegitimate' due to previously canceling presidential elections, citing martial law amid the war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has issued some interesting new comments weighing in on the 'what's next' from Moscow's perspective after Zelensky is eventually out, and a new president steps in. The top Russian diplomat expressed skepticism that things will actually change substantially in Kiev.

If Zelensky gets ousted, Lavrov began in the interview with Kommersant, then the Kremlin believes it likely someone else will simply carry on the "Russophobic" regime in Ukraine with a new "half-Fuhrer".

Via Associated Press

"Europe will do everything to ensure the regime does not change in its essence," Lavrov stated, before asserting provocatively, "They’ll find some new half-Fuhrer… but the essence of the regime will remain."

He further weighed on current French and British-led efforts to forge a 'coalition of the willing' to provide European boots on the ground, ostensibly as a 'peacekeeping' force for Ukraine.

"They have come up with a 'resilience force'... In other words, in order to maintain Ukraine’s resilience, they are not going to send blockade troops... but the military of ‘civilized’ Western countries," Lavrov said sarcastically, as cited in English-language Russian media.

Among the chief complains Moscow has long presented before the world is that the Ukrainian government suppresses the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine. Kiev authorities have also been persecuting the largest Orthodox Church of Ukraine, because it maintains spiritual communion with Moscow.

For example, a regional church media source reports the following violent incident from last week:

At least four churches were attacked by these schismatics and nationalists in just one day this week, Tuesday, April 8. They assaulted several people, leaving at least one young woman bleeding, reports Foma, with reference to Ukrainian outlets. In some cases, they managed to seize the churches, and in some they were driven away by the Orthodox parishioners.

Early in the morning, St. Michael’s Church in the village of Svetilnya, Kyiv Province, was seized. Police officers sat in a parked car idly watching as an unknown man cut through the church doors with an angle grinder.

Lavrov in the interview called out Western capitals for continuing to support this harsh crackdown on religious freedom and language rights. Much of the population of the east and south of Ukraine has long spoken Russian as their first language.

"All these peacekeeping schemes drawn up by the Macrons and Starmers are based on the need to preserve at least a piece of land where a Nazi, openly Russophobic regime will remain, geared towards preparing another war against Russia, as was done with the Minsk agreements," Lavrov said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 02:45

Cultural Factors Drive 'Disproportionate' Crime Among Migrant Groups: Renowned Swiss Psychiatrist

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Following the release of his new book, The Dark Sides of Migration, Swiss forensic psychiatrist Frank Urbaniok has called for European asylum policy to finally take migrant crime statistics into account, claiming that certain migrant groups are “disproportionately criminal” due to cultural factors.

Urbaniok, one of Switzerland’s most prominent forensic experts with over three decades of experience analyzing violent offenders, suggests that cultural influences from countries such as Afghanistan, Morocco, and Tunisia contribute significantly to higher crime rates among migrants from these regions.

“Afghans are reported more than five times, Moroccans more than eight times, and Tunisians more than nine times more often than Swiss nationals for serious violent crimes,” Urbaniok stated in an interview with Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung, citing his analysis of crime data from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.

“The disproportionate crime rate has a lot to do with cultural influences. It is about how violence is dealt with, the image of women, or the role of the rule of law in these countries. I have been dealing with criminals for 33 years and have seen thousands of cases at close range. That’s why I know how strong and relevant these imprints can be. Sometimes, they persist for generations,” he said.

The cover of his book has drawn some criticism for prominently featuring a knife, which he insists is a “good symbol” as it “reflects the growing sense of insecurity in public spaces.”

While careful to clarify that he does not condemn all migrants — he explains why he preceded “Migration” in his book title with “The Dark Side of” — Urbaniok makes no secret of his belief that the cultural background of asylum seekers should influence immigration decisions. “There are countries that are unproblematic, those that are problematic, and those that are highly problematic… and I don’t understand why that doesn’t play a role in the question of who we let into the country.”

Urbaniok proposes an explicit quota system that would limit asylum admissions from countries with high crime rates. In his view, the absolute right to asylum is unrealistic and harmful to public safety: “Hundreds of millions of people would theoretically be entitled to seek asylum in Switzerland, but we could never take them all in.”

The renowned psychiatrist rejected accusations of exaggeration in his book, countering that much of the public discourse on foreigner crime amounts to “targeted disinformation” designed to downplay uncomfortable truths. “Many fear that citizens will not be able to deal with the facts,” he said.

In several European nations, foreign crime data is obscured by the fact that naturalized citizens in their respective countries are categorized as, for example, “German” or “Austrian,” even if they are foreign-born or of a historic migration background.

“Too many problematic people remain here,” Urbaniok said.

“I see them in the statistics and every day in my profession for thirty years. That’s unpleasant. What is really unpleasant is the realization that these problems can still exist a generation later. That’s why you can’t say that we have the matter under control. On the contrary, the problems are huge.”

Urbaniok has appeared at events hosted by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), a party known for its hardline stance on immigration. While acknowledging that the SVP identifies the scale of the issue, Urbaniok criticized the party for what he considers to be a too simplistic solution. “It is a sign of their perplexity when they believe that all you have to do is control the borders and everything will be fine.”

He also spoke of the firewall against the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which he believes prevents the party from becoming more moderate and mainstream and enables radicals with pro-Russia and unpalatable, overtly xenophobic views to ride its coattails.

“The AfD does not distance itself enough from right-wing radical and xenophobic forces. It represents positions, for example vis-à-vis Russia, that I consider unacceptable. I don’t like their agitational language, but I think it is wrong to try to contain a party that has over 20 percent of the vote with firewalls. This only promotes the radical forces in this party,” he told the Swiss newspaper.

Despite the backlash against the issues raised in his book, Urbaniok remains defiant and optimistic about its release later this month. 

“The publishers were afraid for their image,” he said, revealing that several publishers declined to publish his book. “They try to have an educational effect on the population, and I think that is wrong and harmful to our democracy.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/16/2025 - 02:00

Peace Through Technological Strength: How Trump's America Tames The Chinese Dragon

Authored by Shane Festa and Brent Sadler via The Daily Signal, a publication of The Heritage Foundation,

In the days around the U.S. presidential election, dozens of People’s Liberation Army warplanes cruised through Taiwanese airspace. Such behavior is a microcosm of China’s audacity and confidence to act with increasing impunity.

During President Joe Biden’s tenure, the Chinese military consistently probed Taiwan’s readiness and Washington’s leadership. Data from the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense indicates Chinese activity around Taiwan has spiked by over 30 percent compared to the same period last year, potentially a calculated jab to see how Trump 2.0 will respond to cross-strait antagonism.

As 2024 came to an end, the communist Chinese turned up the heat on Taiwan, flexing their muscles whenever opportunities arose. On Oct. 15, China’s Joint Sword 2024B exercise saw 111 aircraft cross the Taiwan Strait‘s median line—a record high. In December, coinciding with Chinese leader Lai Ching-te’s return from a visit to the U.S., naval activity surged again. Between Dec. 9 and Dec. 11, over 90 warships and dozens of aircraft were detected around the island nation.

In recent weeks, the People’s Liberation Army has returned to sending provocative signals. As typical, China’s military activities ebb and flow to send specific strategic messages or in reaction to perceived provocations, such as when the USS Ralph Johnson and USNS Bowditch transited the Taiwan Strait earlier this year.

That operation triggered an abnormally intense response for early February—30 Chinese aircraft were detected in Taiwan’s northern, southwestern, and eastern air defense identification zones in a single day. By comparison, the last transit of the Taiwan Strait by a U.S. Navy vessel, the USS Higgins on Oct. 21, 2024, saw China deploy only 14 aircraft in response.

Unlike the situation under the Biden administration, Beijing recognizes Trump 2.0’s focus on it hinders China’s absorbing Taiwan on a timeline of its choosing.

Moreover, shortly after Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations wrapped up, the Chinese military conducted unannounced live-fire drills on Feb. 27—unprecedented for that time of year when operational levels are typically lower and during less-than-ideal weather. The drills spanned from 40 nautical miles off Taiwan’s coast to the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, fomenting some consternation in Canberra and Wellington.

By mid-March, the 10-day average of median line crossings by Chinese aircraft showed a significant rise, almost doubling from six on March 17 to 11.8 by March 21—largely attributable to one day’s spike in activity on March 18.

Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun explained the activity by citing a recent change to a State Department fact sheet that eliminated language opposing Taiwan‘s independence, stating, “This is yet another example of the United States’ stubborn adherence to the erroneous policy of using Taiwan to suppress China.” The surprise drills in February and March produced unexpected spikes in activity, indicating that even under President Donald Trump, China is still keen on testing boundaries.

To better ascertain China’s evolving military strategy and intent, the U.S. must leverage its forward-looking approach to intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. In February, Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China’s heightened activity near Taiwan was in fact rehearsal for an attempt at forced reunification. This activity aims to desensitize Taiwan and its partners through sustained high military presence and gray-zone tactics that obfuscate preparations for kinetic conflict.

Project Overmatch, the Navy’s contribution to the Joint All-Domain Command and Control initiative, is accelerating anticipated development timelines, arming the Navy with artificial intelligence and advanced drone technology. That said, a potential demonstration of the return on investment here could become available with spring exercises coming in the Pacific. With this in mind, the fielding of operationally useful mass data analytics and artificial intelligence-assisted decision-making systems can be achieved in part by emulating Task Force 59’s success in the Arabian Gulf.

There, autonomous vehicles and associated information networks served as the connective tissue between machines and manned vessels, enabling a wider and persistent sensor coverage previously unseen, which could soon be made lethal as demonstrated in November’s Digital Talon exercise. The drills showcased Central Command’s prowess in testing aerial autonomous launches and recoveries, as well as identified challenges for the group dubbed “the pioneers” to overcome in the future.

In the Pacific, this approach could give the U.S. a critical edge in countering China’s tactics and deter aggression. The private sector has matched this movement toward activity-based intelligence. Predictive models and sensors suites from companies like Windward track anomalous behavior using automated information systems, capable of subverting bad actors who seek to conceal their identities while at sea.

Data streams from platforms such as Northrop Grumman’s Manta Ray could create a sensor-heavy ecosystem capable of identifying, tracking, and predicting targeted activities like dark ships involved in sanctions avoidance, Chinese maritime militia activities, illicit narcotics trafficking at sea, and clandestine operations all in near real-time.

China is now seeking to check America’s—and Trump’s—response to its intimidation of Taiwan. Lawmakers must act without delay to equip the Indo-Pacific Command with the resources to field the appropriate technologies to pace rising Chinese provocations.

Done well, perhaps the next time China or Russia seeks to snip undersea cables in Asia or harass partners in the region, by detecting anomalous or illicit activities through cutting-edge monitoring, the United States could better position forces to preempt such moves before they become a confrontation at sea. To achieve this, our naval forces must have robust maritime domain awareness necessary to stay one step ahead.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 23:25

Lincoln Was A 'Threat To Democracy'

Authored by Al Perrotta via The Daily Signal,

One hundred sixty years ago tonight, at Ford’s Theater, John Wilkes Booth put a bullet in the head of President Abraham Lincoln. 

What motivated the 26-year-old actor? 

Fame?  

No, he had plenty of that. His photos were outsold only by Honest Abe himself.  

Acclaim?  

No, contrary to tales told in school that he was jealous of the critical raves afforded his father Junius and brother Edwin, Booth earned reviews any young actor would die for. He even refused to perform under his real name until he earned reviews worthy of the name.  

To avenge the Confederacy’s defeat? 

You’re getting closer. Booth raged and despaired over the suffering incurred by the South. 

Actually, John Wilkes Booth told us his motivation. 

After shooting Lincoln and making his dramatic leap to the stage, Booth shouted “Sic Semper Tyrannis!” (“Thus always to tyrants.”) Or to put it another way, “Lincoln was a threat to democracy.” 

Threat to Democracy 

Twice last summer, amid a daily drumbeat from former President Joe Biden, Democrats, and the media that Donald Trump was a “threat to democracy,” a budding tyrant, two would-be assassins came very close to killing him. Ryan Routh was charged Thursday in Florida for his attempt.  

A recent study indicates 55% of self-described leftists think the assassination of Trump would be “justifiable.” Given the rhetoric, given the vast numbers with a similar heart, it’s no wonder Routh thought he was doing the world a favor.  

“Everyone across the globe from the youngest to the oldest know [sic] that Trump is unfit to be anything, much less a U.S. president,” Routh wrote in a letter found after his arrest. “U.S. presidents must at bare minimum embody the moral fabric that is America and be kind, caring and selfless and always stand for humanity.” 

So did Booth, who wrote while on the run: 

Our country owed all her troubles to him, and God simply made me the instrument of his punishment.

A country that groaned beneath this tyranny, and prayed for this end, and yet now behold the cold hands they extend to me. 

Booth grew increasingly dismayed at being vilified and rejected. 

I am here in despair. And why? For doing what Brutus was honored for. What made Tell a hero? And yet I, for striking down a greater tyrant than they ever knew, am looked upon as a common cutthroat. 

In a letter attempting to justify his actions, Booth wrote: 

When Caesar had conquered the enemies of Rome and the power that was his menaced the liberties of the people, Brutus arose and slew him. The stroke of his dagger was guided by his love of Rome. It was the spirit and ambition of Caesar that Brutus struck at. 

Oh, that we could come by Caesar’s spirit, 
And not dismember Caesar. 
But, alas! 
Ceasar must bleed for it. 

Booth, a man steeped since birth in Shakespearean drama, sought the death of Lincoln as Shakespeare’s Brutus did Caesar’s. This fear stemmed not from what the president had done, but from the belief that with his enemies conquered, Lincoln would keep his war powers and reign as a tyrant. 

This gets to one of the most tragic elements of Lincoln’s assassination, positively Shakespearean in its awfulness. 

John Wilkes Booth failed to realize that with the war over, Lincoln was the best friend the South had. And Booth had a role to play. The greatest of his life. 

A Terrible Missed Opportunity? 

Lincoln wanted a gentle reconciliation between North and South, “with malice toward none, and charity for all.” Many powerful forces around him had plenty of malice toward the Confederacy, and no mood for charity. Those in the South whose towns had been laid waste and their sons laid to rest by the hundreds of thousands, would also have trouble with reconciliation.  

Lincoln’s mission of unifying the country in peace looked to be as difficult as winning the war. He would need all the help he could get.

Author Michael Kauffman discovered an intriguing tidbit when researching his book “American Brutus.” A worker at Ford’s Theater saw Booth hand an attendant a card, and the attendant bring the card into the Presidential Box.  

What happened next is not known. But is it not possible that Lincoln received Booth’s card, and knowing Booth’s fame, his oratory gifts and his sympathies, realized the actor could prove very valuable in helping “bind the nation’s wounds”? Who better than America’s First Family of Theater to help bring the nation together? Perhaps the theater-loving president even knew the three acting Booth brothers would be sharing the stage at a benefit the following week.  

With the war over and the comedy romp “Our American Cousin” playing out beneath him, did Lincoln see in Booth’s card a golden opportunity? Is it not likely an excited Lincoln told the attendant, “Yes, send Mr. Booth in”? 

Rather than summon a potential partner, Lincoln summoned his own executioner. Booth killed not only the president, but all hope for a gentle reconciliation.  

How much better for his beloved South had Booth pulled up a chair instead of a pistol? 

How much better for our nation and their own dreams if liberals sought Trump’s cooperation rather than destruction?

The future is in their hands. The 55% who believe Trump’s assassination would be justified would heed well the lesson of John Wilkes Booth.  

After being cornered in a barn in Port Royal, Virginia and shot, Booth looked down at his hands and uttered his final words: “Useless. Useless.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 22:35

Bye Letitia? Criminal Referral Filed Against NY AG Over Real Estate Fraud Accusation

A criminal referral against New York Attorney General Letitia James has been filed with the DOJ, alleging that James had "falsified records" to get home loans for a Virginia property that she claimed was her "principal residence" in 2023 - while she was serving as a New York state prosecutor.

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director William Pulte sent the missive to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy AG Todd Blanche, claiming that in late August 2023 - weeks before she launched her civil fraud trial against the Trump Organization for inflating the values of its properties.

In 2021, James also purchased a 5-family Brooklyn property, but has "consistently misrepresented the same property as only having four units in both building permit applications and numerous mortgage documents and applications," the letter noted.

Loans secured for this property could have reduced her mortgage interest rate by as much as 1% - leaving James with lower monthly payments under the federal Home Assistance Modification Program (HAMP) since it was listed as containing just four units, according to Pulte.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte refers New York Attorney General Letitia James for potential prosecution over alleged mortgage fraud. pic.twitter.com/VyGGEtndQe

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) April 16, 2025

Documents from the NYC Department of Buildings show a pattern of inconsistencies about a Brooklyn property James owns—inconsistencies that mysteriously received special treatment when reported.

As White Collar Fraud noted last month; 

The Certificate of Occupancy for 296 Lafayette Avenue in Brooklyn—issued January 26, 2001—clearly states the property is a five-family dwelling regulated under NYC housing laws. James purchased this property on February 14, 2001, just two weeks after this Certificate of Occupancy was issued. This official classification has been on the books for more than two decades.

Yet James repeatedly filed permit applications identifying the same property as a four-family dwelling—a classification subject to different regulatory requirements under New York City building codes. Under NYC building code classifications, her property with five units would be classified as C2 (which applies to buildings with 5+ units), while her filings list it as C3 (which applies to 3-4 unit buildings). This fundamental contradiction between the long-established Certificate of Occupancy and her permit applications raises serious questions about regulatory compliance.

"While this was a long time ago, it raises serious concerns about the validity of Ms. James representations on mortgage applications" wrote Pulte, attaching several documents showing James had purchased another property with her father as a co-signer, but falsely listed the pair as "husband and wife" in 1983 and 2000.

James also granted power of attorney to Shamice Thompson-Hairston, a relative, to sign an Aug. 17, 2023, document authorizing the purchase of the first property, according to WCF.

"Ms. James, for both properties listed above, appears to have falsified records in order to meet certain lending requirements and receive favorable loan terms," Pulte wrote, adding that James could be charged with wire fraud, mail fraud, bank fraud and making false statements to a financial institution.

Its perfect. pic.twitter.com/hBQpTL3q1r

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 16, 2025

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 22:10

Gold Soars As Beijing Lowers Yuan Fix Ahead Of Chinese Econ Data Beating On Tariff-Frontrunning

Ahead of tonight's grand unveiling of what Beijing wants the world to think about its economy, the market was active with Gold soaring at the China open for the third day in a row...

...and the Yuan fix notably lower again...

Ugly yuan fix: PBOC set CNY reference rate at 7.2133, much weaker than yesterday's 7.2096 and the weakest since Sept 2023, approaching weakest on record pic.twitter.com/XKjcn2Mwf7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 16, 2025

Ahead of the GDP print, we saw both new and existing home prices released by the statistics bureau for March showing price drops have slowed on a month-on-month basis...

• China March New Home Prices Fall 0.08% M/M

• China March Existing Home Prices Fall 0.23% M/M

Of course, tonight's data tsunami is pre-Liberation Day Tariffs so no excuses (aside from the 10% tariffs that Trump put on China at the start of February).

However, GDP was expected to show the economy slowing ahead of the tariffs given March's unevenness.

In reality, it didn't... China GDP growth beat expectations, rising 5.4% (+5.2% exp)...

The growth was in line with China’s growth rate in the fourth quarter and exceeded Beijing’s full-year growth target for 2025.

In the first quarter China’s trade surplus was over $270 billion, just below the record in the final three months of last year and almost 50% larger than a year ago. The record surplus last year of almost $1 trillion drove a third of China’s growth and the boost last quarter is likely to have been large.

Beijing has set a target of 5 per cent growth for this year and has backed this up with pledges to increase stimulus measures, setting a record budget deficit target for the central government.

And just like the GDP figure, the rest of the data beat (or met) expectations too

• China Retail Sales BEAT +4.6% YTD vs +4.3% exp vs +4.0% prior

• China Industrial Production BEAT +6.5% YTD vs +5.9% exp vs 5.9% prior

• China Fixed Asset Investment BEAT +4.2% vs +4.1% exp vs +4.1% prior

• China Property Investment MEET -9.9% vs -9.9% exp vs -98% prior

• China Unemployment BEAT 5.2% vs 5.3% exp vs 5.4%$ prior

Presumably these much better than expected data are due to tariff front-running.

“The most pleasant surprise is retail sales which shows that consumption subsidies are working,” said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA. 

“Industrial production was a beat but understandable after the strong export data. But that’s all in the past now.”

China is the world’s largest importer of oil, natural gas and coal, and Beijing has been putting pressure on energy firms in recent years to boost output and reduce the nation’s dependency on imports. 

Diggers and driller responded in March, with output rising 9.6% for coal, 5% for natural gas and 3.5% for crude oil. Output increases in coal and oil are particularly higher than expected.

Of course, it's what happens next that really matters as US tariffs on China are now high enough to wipe out Chinese shipments to the US, according to Bloomberg estimates. 

“Even with temporary exemptions, US duties will still be high enough to crush most of China’s exports to the US,” said Chang Shu and David Qu at Bloomberg Economics.

UBS this week cut its China GDP forecast with the most pessimistic outlook forecast among major banks, predicting the economy will expand just 3.4% this year as US tariffs choke exports.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are among global banks that cut their outlook for China in recent days, with most economists doubting Beijing can achieve the official target of about 5% growth this year.

“With the trade war with the US escalating sharply, the economy will face stronger headwinds. We expect policymakers to expedite stimulus," said Shu and Qu.

The NBS struck a note of caution even as it released the upbeat data, emphasizing the need for greater support for the economy.

“We should be aware that the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, the drive for growth of effective domestic demand is insufficient, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery and growth is yet to be consolidated,” the bureau said in a statement. 

“We must implement more proactive and effective macro policies.”

Beijing is placing high hopes on domestic demand - particularly consumption - to drive economic growth this year, as external pressures mount under Donald Trump's second presidency.

In a bid to spur spending, leading bodies of China's state apparatus and the ruling Communist Party issued a 30-point plan aimed at stimulating consumer demand.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 22:05

Showdown Looms Over Trump's DEI Ban In Public Schools

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Several blue states have joined New York in resisting federal efforts to end diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs in public schools.

People walk past Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs in Princeton, N.J., on Nov. 20, 2015. Dominick Reuter/Reuters

Leaders in California, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Washington said they wouldn’t provide a signed statement to the federal government by an April 24 deadline to certify compliance with President Donald Trump’s executive order prohibiting practices such as diversity training, affinity groups by race and gender, preferential hiring practices by race, and classroom curricula that include progressive ideologies such as critical race theory.

The federal correspondence sent to state education agencies asked leaders to report back on behalf of all their school districts. New York was the first state to dismiss the request, and the other states followed suit last week.

“There is nothing in state or federal law—including Title VI—that outlaws the broad concepts of ‘diversity,‘ ‘equity,’ or ’inclusion,’” David Schapira, California Department of Education deputy superintendent, wrote in an April 11 letter to school districts.

States and districts that don’t comply risk losing federal education funding in accordance with Civil Rights law and a 2023 Supreme Court decision banning racial preferences in college admissions, the federal letter states.

It’s unclear where other states stand in this process. The Department of Education informed The Epoch Times that Puerto Rico, a U.S. commonwealth, had complied with the order, but the agency had not reported updates by state.

The New Hampshire Department of Education’s website updates certification compliance by district.

Rural districts in states that oppose the order are caught in the crossfire. Many depend on higher percentages of federal Title 1 funding than urban districts because they serve low-income student populations and don’t have a strong property tax base.

School officials said these districts have DEI statements on their websites in accordance with state laws put in place years ago, but they don’t necessarily engage in affinity groups for minority teachers or students or mandate culturally inclusive instruction practices.

Jaime Green, superintendent of the Trinity Alps Unified district in Northern California, which depends on federal funding to make up for tax-exempt forest land, said he never received a letter from his state’s Department of Education asking him to disclose information about his district in this matter.

“I’m hoping that locally elected board members would be considered in each state’s decision as we believe in local control,” Green told The Epoch Times.

His district’s website does not show any indications of DEI practices that would be outlawed. It lists all current laws for protecting staff and students from discrimination and harassment and also lists the state-required equity policy adopted in 2018.

David Little, executive director of the New York State Rural Schools Association, said rural districts in the Empire State have struggled with severe enrollment losses in the past decade. Most of them rely on state funding based on enrollment, not property taxes or federal assistance, so they cannot afford not to comply with state requirements, such as DEI statements for hiring, inclusionary practices for all students, or mandated Board of Education diversity committees.

“For rural schools, today is all they know,” he said. “You’re trying to educate kids. You’re not running a compliance machine.”

The Franklin Central School District, a tiny rural district in the state’s southern tier region, lists state-mandated policies on its website, including gender-neutral single occupancy bathrooms. Nothing on the site promotes affinity groups for staff or students by race or gender.

By contrast, the two largest school districts in the country have guidelines to implement race- or gender identity-based programs.

The New York City School District website has an extensive page with guidelines “to support transgender and gender-expansive students.” It notes that any student can choose the name, pronoun, and gender they want without parental consent. The Los Angeles Unified School District website includes a Black Student Achievement Plan.

Both national teacher unions, the National Education Association and the American Federation of Teachers, have filed federal lawsuits challenging the legality and constitutionality of the Trump administration’s DEI certification requirement.

At the state level, meanwhile, some legislatures across the country are already considering bills prohibiting DEI in schools, regardless of how Trump’s executive orders play out. That list includes Alabama, Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Texas, according to the legislation tracker on the National Conference of State Legislators website.

Several states also have bills promoting DEI, including a culturally responsible education mandate in Delaware, an apprenticeship and placement program for teachers of color in Hawaii, mandated “LGBTQIA+” diversity training in Illinois, and required task forces to study and promote diversity in New York State public schools.

Jonathan Butcher, an education policy research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said it remains to be seen how the Trump administration will proceed after the April 24 deadline; federal agencies may take a closer look at each state and audit individual districts as they did under similar orders for colleges and universities.

“The state has withheld money from districts already,” he told The Epoch Times. “I think the administration is largely within its purview. If a state chose to test this and see how serious [Trump] is, the administration has demonstrated it’s quite serious.”

Butcher said federal education funding, which is mainly limited to aid for low-income and special education students, typically amounts to less than 10 percent of a school district’s revenues.

He doesn’t think it is fair that some state education superintendents announced their decision not to comply without gathering input from all their districts, but at the same time, it should also not be assumed that rural districts, even in red states, intend to comply with the order.

“There are mandated affinity groups that get together during lunch in South Carolina,” Butcher said. “Yes, this is happening in districts of all shapes and sizes.”

Butcher added that the overriding concept—the main reason for the Trump administration’s plan to dismantle the Department of Education—is that states and school districts can make their own decisions. If they choose to maintain DEI practices and forgo federal money, taxpayers who voted for leaders opposing such practices shouldn’t have to pay for them.

Trump previously issued an executive order to facilitate the elimination of the Department of Education, and Education Secretary Linda McMahon has already laid off half the agency’s staff. In addition, the agency’s special education functions for K-12 schools have been moved to the Department of Health and Human Services, and the Small Business Administration will take over student loans.

If states and school districts are able to maintain DEI programs without federal funding, Butcher said, “they didn’t need Washington in the first place.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 21:45

How Much Does Each US Wealth Bracket Pay In Income Taxes?

The top 1% of U.S. earners paid 40% of federal income taxes in 2022, based on the latest available data.

This share has risen from 33.2% in 2001. 

Meanwhile, the share paid by the bottom 50% of earners fell from 4.9% to 3% over the same period—likely reflecting the growing concentration of wealth at the top, which has boosted tax contributions from high-income individuals.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows federal income tax revenue by wealth bracket, based on analysis of IRS data from the Tax Foundation.

Breaking Down America’s Income Tax Revenue

Below, we show the share of total federal income taxes paid by wealth tier in 2022:

Americans earning over $663,000, considered the top 1%, paid $854.5 billion in income taxes, the highest share overall.

The average income tax rate for this tier was 26.1%, across more than 1.5 million income tax returns in 2022. Individuals in this bracket paid $561,523, on average, in their income tax filings.

For those falling in the top 5% to 1% of all U.S. earners, income tax revenue amounted to $448.6 billion, the second-highest share. Taxpayers falling into this bracket earned between $261,591 and $663,164 and paid 23.1% on average in income tax.

Meanwhile, the bottom half of earners funded the smallest share of total income tax revenue, with an average income tax rate of 3.7%. These represent earners of $50,339 or less, spanning across 76.9 million American taxpayers.

To learn more about this topic from a global perspective, check out this graphic on top marginal income tax rates around the world.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 21:20

Second Top Pentagon Official Placed On Leave Amid OPSEC Leak Investigation

Update (2115ET): A second top Pentagon official was placed on administrative leave on Tuesday amid a probe into potential leaks of sensitive information, three DoD officials tell Politico.

In addition to Dan Caldwell which we reported earlier, Pentagon deputy chief of staff Darin Selnick was also suspended as part of the same probe and similarly escorted out of the building, according to one of the officials.

The leaks under investigation include US carrier movements towards the Red Sea, Elon Musk's controversial visit to the Pentagon, the pausing of intelligence to Ukraine, and the military's operational plans for the Panama Canal.

* * *

Previously: A top advisor to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was escorted out of the Pentagon on Tuesday and placed on leave in connection with an investigation into leaks from the department.

Dan Caldwell, a former marine who previously worked for Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ), was placed on leave for an 'unauthorized disclosure' according to Reuters.

*  *  *

Anza Knives are made in the USA! Right now the Rosewood Big Bowie is on sale:

Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back, lifetime guarantee. And if you're looking for a great daily carry, check this one out.

"The investigation remains ongoing," an official told the outlet, who did not provide further details about the nature of the alleged disclosure, including whether it was made to a news outlet.

The incident comes after a March 21 memo from Hegseth Chief-of-Staff Joe Kasper ordering a Pentagon investigation into leaks.

NEW: Defense Department official confirms to @realDailyWire that Dan Caldwell, a top advisor to Secretary Pete Hegseth, has been placed on leave related to an investigation into DOD leaks.

— Mary Margaret Olohan (@MaryMargOlohan) April 15, 2025

The first Trump administration was notoriously plagued with leaks - something they're trying to get ahead of this time around.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has employed polygraph testing in her efforts to root out suspected leakers within the DHS. Tricia McLaughlin, DHS’ assistant secretary for public affairs, issued a statement to Fox News Digital on that initiative, saying, “Under Secretary Noem’s leadership, DHS is unapologetic about its efforts to root out leakers that undermine national security. We are agnostic about your standing, tenure, political appointment or status as a career civil servant – we will track down leakers and prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law.” -DW

Meanwhile, DNI Tulsi Gabbard has also come out hard against leaks - saying in a statement that "Politically motivated leaks undermine our national security and the trust of the American people and will not be tolerated. Unfortunately, such leaks have become commonplace with no investigation or accountability. That ends now. We know of and are aggressively pursuing recent leakers from within the Intelligence Community and will hold them accountable."

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 21:14

Be On The Alert For These Insurance Scams

Authored by Mary Hunt via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Let’s face it—insurance is already one of those necessary evils, like flossing or assembling IKEA furniture. You pay for it, you hope you never have to use it, and when you do, you cross your fingers and hope the process isn’t as painful as stepping on a LEGO. But just when you think you’ve got it all figured out, scammers show up with their trickery, ready to part you from your hard-earned cash faster than you can say “deductible.”

Hang up when anything seems fishy. BestForBest/Shutterstock

Here’s the good news: Knowing what to watch for can help you avoid falling victim to the most common insurance scams. Let’s break them down, one shady scheme at a time.

1. The Fake Insurance Provider Scam

You’re scrolling online, minding your business, when you see an insurance deal that seems too good to be true. Low premiums, full coverage and “instant approval.” Sounds great, right? Until you file a claim and realize the company doesn’t actually exist.

How to Spot It: If the company is unheard of, do some digging. Legitimate insurers are licensed and regulated by state insurance departments.

Check reviews and complaints on the National Association of Insurance Commissioners website: www.naic.org.

If they demand full payment upfront in gift cards or cryptocurrency, run.

2. The Staged Accident Scam

You’re driving along, obeying all the laws like the responsible adult you are, when suddenly—BAM! Someone slams into your car. Except, surprise! It wasn’t an accident at all. Scammers stage accidents to make false insurance claims, often faking injuries and vehicle damage for maximum payout.

How to Spot It: Be wary of drivers who wave you into merging and then magically “don’t see you.”

If witnesses appear suspiciously fast or seem too rehearsed, take note.

Always call the police for an accident report. Scammers will try to avoid official documentation.

3. The Fake Health Insurance Scam

In this nightmare scenario, scammers promise a comprehensive health insurance plan at an unbeatable rate. Only when you actually need medical care do you discover the “coverage” you bought is as empty as a gas tank on payday.

How to Spot It: Beware of pushy salespeople who promise “limited-time offers.”

Verify that the plan is registered with Healthcare.gov or your state’s insurance marketplace.

If a plan isn’t Affordable Care Act-compliant but claims to cover preexisting conditions, that’s a major red flag.

4. The Premium Diversion Scam

An agent takes your insurance payment but never sends it to the company. Instead, they pocket the money and leave you uninsured—until you try to file a claim and find out your policy was never active.

How to Spot It: Make payments directly to your insurance company, not to an individual agent.

Confirm your payment was received by checking with your insurer.

If your agent is suddenly hard to reach after taking your money, get suspicious fast.

5. The Life Insurance Impersonation Scam

A scammer poses as an insurance agent and tells you a long-lost relative (whom you barely remember) left you a hefty life insurance payout. But first, you just need to pay a small “processing fee” to claim it.

Spoiler alert: There’s no inheritance—just a scammer laughing all the way to the bank.

How to Spot It: Real insurance companies don’t ask for processing fees upfront.

If the “agent” demands personal banking details, it’s a scam.

Check with the actual insurance company before believing any inheritance claims.

6. The Medicare and Social Security Scam

Scammers pose as Medicare or Social Security representatives, claiming you need to verify or update your information to keep your benefits. In reality, they’re just after your Social Security number to commit identity theft.

How to Spot It: The government will never call you out of the blue asking for personal information.

If someone pressures you to act immediately, hang up.

If in doubt, call Medicare (1-800-MEDICARE) or Social Security (1-800-772-1213) directly.

7. Fake “Claims Assistance” Scams

After a natural disaster, scammers show up offering to help you file an insurance claim. They promise to handle the paperwork, negotiate with your insurer and maximize your payout—for a fee, of course. Once paid, they vanish faster than your motivation to exercise after New Year’s.

How to Spot It: Your insurer provides claims assistance for free.

Never give personal information to unsolicited “insurance advisers.”

If they demand payment before doing anything, it’s a scam.

Final Thought: Trust but verify.

Insurance scams are an unfortunate reality, but with a little vigilance, you can stay ahead of the scammers. If something feels off, trust your instincts and double-check everything. When in doubt, contact your state’s Department of Insurance or the National Insurance Crime Bureau (www.nicb.org) to verify legitimacy.

Because the only thing worse than dealing with an insurance company is realizing you weren’t actually dealing with a real one at all.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 20:55

Trump Suggests Iran Slow-Walking Talks, As 2nd Round Set For Rome

A second round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran are set for Saturday in Rome, Axios reports, after both sides cited positive and constructive opening dialogue in Oman last weekend.

The rival delegations in Oman say they achieved their objective of shifting from indirect to direct talks. By the end of it, Trump's regional envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi briefly spoke in the presence of the Omani foreign minister.

The Trump administration reportedly wants the same format for the upcoming Rome talks. According to Axios, Witkoff and Arachchi's first interaction lasted for about 45 minutes, which was longer than expected. Axios further says:

The source described that conversation, the highest-level dialogue between U.S. and Iranian officials in eight years, as "substantive, serious and excellent."

Associated Press/Getty Images

But akin to slow-moving Ukraine peace talks, President Trump is already expressing frustration and warning Tehran than it better not just slow-walk the process of talks.

During comments to reporters in the Oval Office while meeting with El Salvador President Nayib Bukele on Monday, Trump repeated that threat of military action being on the table.

"Iran wants to deal with us, but they don’t know how. They really don’t know how. We had a meeting with them on Saturday. We have another meeting scheduled next Saturday, I said, ‘that’s a long time,’ so I think they might be tapping us along," he explained.

He continued, "If we have to do something very harsh, we’ll do it. And I’m not doing it for us. I’m doing it for the world. These are radicalized people, and they cannot have a nuclear weapon."

A reporter asked him if options include directly striking Iran's nuclear facilities, to which he responded, "Of course."

The Iranian side has said this is only the "beginning" of talks and diplomatic engagement with the new Trump administration. It has said it won't sign a simple replacement deal after the US withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. It can no longer trust Washington, officials have made clear.

FM Baghaei has said, "The objective of the Islamic Republic of Iran is very clear — we have only one goal, and that is to safeguard Iran’s national interests."

"We are giving a genuine and honest opportunity to diplomacy, so that through dialogue, we can move forward on the nuclear issue on one hand, and more importantly for us, the lifting of sanctions," he added. 

Witkoff confirms to Fox: Trump is seeking to limit Iran's enrichment to 3.67% - just as the JCPOA did.

Israel wanted Trump to blow up Iran's nuclear program (which would lead to war). Trump said no.

Trump correctly put US interests ahead of Israel's on this issue. pic.twitter.com/9auNJFMDWl

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) April 15, 2025

But Witkoff days ago had previewed to The Wall Street Journal just ahead of the Oman trip, "I think our position begins with dismantlement of your program. That is our position today."

He described, "Where our red line will be, there can’t be weaponization of your nuclear capability." However Iran has maintained all along that its program is only for peaceful nuclear energy to meet the nation's power needs, and further several Ayatollah's have declared nuclear weapons to be 'unIslamic'.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 20:30

Manufacturing Consent? What About Manufacturing Rebellion?

Authored by Rinzen Widjaja via The Mises Institute,

Noam Chomsky’s Manufacturing Consent argued that the mass communications industry influences public perception in ways that benefit elite interests, all without overt coercion. 

The book critiques not only the nature of the media but also the very concept of “consent.” Chomsky contends that “consent” has been rendered meaningless by the pervasive use of propaganda to manipulate the masses. This view heavily contrasts with the conservative or right-libertarian understanding of consent as the cornerstone of a free society and something that should not be taken lightly. However, Chomsky might also need to consider whether the same issue applies to “rebellion,” which he and his peers helped inspire in the 1960s. Can rebellion, too, be manufactured?

The term “rebellion” has largely been appropriated as a left-wing term. Protesters who had supported the fiscally conservative Tea Party movement in the US were, essentially, rebelling against encroaching state power. Yet, they are often portrayed differently by the media and political analysts. The Washington Post, for example, has described the movement as a “reactionary force” rather than recognizing it as an act of resistance against authority. Meanwhile, left-leaning thinkers and activists—among the likes of Noam Chomsky and Richard D. Wolff—have found renewed attention in various media outlets, repackaging 1960s-era ideas of rebellion for a millennial audience.

However, despite the rise of star activists, modern education and parenting have stifled the self-actualization of youth. In its place, excessive coddling not only emphasizes the safety of the young but also goes so far as to manufacture even their experiences of rebellion. What once emerged organically in youth is now stage-managed by older authority figures. Children march, chant, and paint protest signs for various social causes. But when teachers and parents encourage these actions, they are not true acts of defiance. Instead, they become guided exercises—the antithesis of real rebellion. Ironically, people who argue for more power to the state and establishment see themselves as part of the “resistance.”

Journalist Midge Decter detailed this phenomenon in her book Liberal Parents, Radical Children. Decter observed how an older generation of educated, progressive parents raised radical children through a combination of intellectual crippling and overindulgence. While the parents of these radicals were considered “enlightened,” their children typically fell short of achievement, emerging as “hippies, dropouts, or potheads.” She attributed this to the parents’ “crime” of “loving” their children far too much. This included calling them strong while they were “still weak to avoid the struggles that would have fed their true strength.” She also named the socialization of children in American government schools as a factor which further hindered intellectual achievement due to the failure to cultivate high literacy skills.

Contrary to mainstream opinion, a “child activist” who—under parental influence—attends a street protest does not attempt to defy authority. The accompanying adult would have foisted their beliefs upon the child, who uncritically adopts them after being pulled into the activist scene. In climate activism, “intergenerational collaboration” refers to different age groups working together to find environmental solutions. For those on the younger end of this “collaboration,” however, plus their lack of experience and perspective at that stage of life blurs the line between indoctrination and willful engagement. Efforts such as these display an attempt to direct “rebellion” in ways that are expected by authority figures, aligning with more “progressive” tendencies. Some young people have noticed this shift, even citing how being conservative has become “a little edgier” than joining movements like Greenpeace.

What was once considered “revolutionary politics” has gradually become the new status quo. Those who lived through the counterculture period of the 1960s have now become the ones in positions of authority, such as media anchors, university professors, policymakers, and business leaders. The more conservative-minded have increasingly become afraid to speak up in public places and forums, where unchecked arrogance on the other side reigns with little acknowledgment of a shift in the political status quo. American conservative writer William F. Buckley, Jr. observed this situation as early as 1951 when he detailed his undergraduate experience at Yale. In his book God and Man at Yale, Buckley observed that the students at Yale were being conditioned to accept Keynesian economic principles and denounce Christianity. Individualism, he insisted, was being destroyed under the pretense of American liberalism. One thing he noted was that although most students studying there at the time believed in God, the institution had not served its “masters” by championing entirely different beliefs.

If “consent” is said to be meaningless due to its supposed tampering by capitalist forces, the same logic could be applied to “rebellion,” with the only difference being that it now comes from the left. The downplaying of consent in our society constitutes a game of mental manipulation that undermines freedom and builds a pathological framework on which to view the world. It is also often the case that those very same individuals who dismiss the idea of “consent” fail to recognize the manufacture of “rebellion,” which has become far removed from its original meaning. Perhaps it is time to question whether the rebellion against this supposed false consent is, in fact, the actual result of conditioning, and not the opposite.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/15/2025 - 20:05